Aurator: Since I foolishly brought up the Reynolds thing, I'll foolishly attempt to define it. Knowing full well that Kiwi and JTF will fill in the inevitable distortions and holes. .....

The Reynolds number is a number that describes the mechanical properties of a fluid. It has several considerations ( mostly difficult ) that go into its calculation ( most of which escape me at the moment ) . The number is absolutely necessary for any calculations that describe and predict the action of a fluid in motion. That is, to predict the conditions, under which, the flow will be laminar ( smooth ) or turbulent. ...... As I recall, Kiwi's discipline is fluid mechanics.

JTF Ki Ora, Mate! my ears must have been burning!

You spoke well, from the heart, and your words echo comfortably around mine. Thank you.

Earl & JTF

And if you tip over Reynolds numbers does that lead to identifying chaos attractors? or have i gotta go back to counting fingers and toes?

Aurator: I gave you all that was in my bucket, on that subject. All of it from, from long ago and far away. ..... now it's back to fingers and toes. ...... and my superannuated Hewpie 19C to calculate losses.

BART
Did kitco crash after my Evil King Bart post, cos i'm real sorry.

Earl and a Hewpie 19c isn't a helicopter, right? ;-}
Thanks.

Cherokee: Did a web search for Sollog Immanuel, the latter day Nostrdamus and couldn't access the site. "Permission denied". .... Obviously need higher security clearance than my ordinary, "Known Risk to himself and others around him".

Panda-
Don't know, I always view in full text mode, you never know what gems are in the middle or the bottom of a post, so I read it all.

Cool. No memory of yesterday. Each day start completely new. no reference to the past.
Earl got it, didn't recognise the lingo, actually still have one myself.

Aurator: 19C? Hmmmm. Hadn't thought about the possibility of 'misconstruation' ( a misconstruation is a neologism that is similar to a misunderstanding but it only happens at a certain time of the month ... ;- ) ... ) ........ Heliocopter? Nah. It's an ancient though still viable H-P calculator. With a built in printer, no less. ... Unfortunately, H-P has repeatedly, and with conviction, assured me that they will never, ever, make batteries for it again. Ever.

Aurator: Awright. It's yer turn. .... Whatsit mean? This 'tabula rasa' thing? Sounds conspiratorial. Like 'sub rosa'.

Earl just checked, actually mine is a 12C. it was the Hepie that thre me off. i know it a aichPee .
Darnd language gets in the way of easy communications

All
the Brits are waking up to the news -
A sparrowhawk falls:
Rothschild Asset Management: London business to disclose losses
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/v4d3ba.htm

FRIDAY OCTOBER 3 1997

WOW, Yesterday becomes a memory hole! RJ, You are right. You did not say 'must' anywhere in your dialog. You only alluded to it. My appologies. You did say that if silver continues up that gold may see 350, Dec basis. I certainly agree with that. In fact, I certainly agree with the 'IF', though I really do think that this particular run isn't done yet! I.E., You may very well be right in the direction yet to be taken, but very probably not quite yet. As always, time will tell, and I, as a trader, don't care, in that regards. As a non-sonambulist though, I do!

Tabula Rasa : lit blank slate. As a theory of education - a newborn is a blank slate. Everything we learn in this world, all our experiences are written on our slate.

So to start with a blank slate..
I just saw a chance of redemption and grabbed it. FWIW without wishing in any way to diminish/puff up the Y2K problem, that is actually, a left brain thing. You know, the cliffs of logic. My right brain is looking for words like redemption as we get closer to the millenial madness. Sometime I shall try an essay on millenial cults and post.

It will be almost impossible not to be caught up in millenial madness. The Y2K left brain problem has ensnaired left-brainers, the rainbow mists of redemption are already extending their promising embrace..the right brainers have little to catch up on...

;- )

Aurator -- What do you think; Y2K problem one part of the BIG 'erasure' of the mess?

Earl Brill!
Just turn the whole lot off and start again. Now, where's my credit card..

IMF Got you over a barrel chum?
Thailand: Government to ease foreign ownership rules

FRIDAY OCTOBER 3 1997
By Ted Bardacke in Bangkok
Thailand will allow majority foreign ownership in local financial institutions for up to 10 years as part of its plan for restructuring the financial system, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, the prime minister, said yesterday.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/z9d802.htm

Eldorado//Earl, beg your pardon. got me wire crossed.

Remember folks aurator was asking questions about the Standard Chartered Bank and deferred gold loans.....hmmm


Metals: Bank of Nova Scotia to acquire Mocatta

By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent
Bank of Nova Scotia is to acquire the Mocatta Group to form the biggest force in the global gold and silver bullion and base metals markets.
The combined group, Scotia-Mocatta, will have offices in seven countries and nearly 3,000 clients in 65 countries. Its "book" - the notional value of forwards contracts and options - will be worth about US$70bn.
Nigel Dentoom, Mocatta chief executive, said that, even as the merger was being completed Scotia-Mocatta was "in an acquisitive mode". Negotiations that might lead to an acquisition were already in train.
Mocatta, established in 1671 and the oldest and one of the biggest metals trading groups, is to be sold by Standard Chartered, which is concentrating on retail and corporate banking.

http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/stocktalk-17

Aurator -- The name of the game for the New World Odor is to overturn Sovereign states, wherever they may be. First, create a problem, then 'solve' it. The typical game plan that has been underway for a long time. The big fat 'thumb' in this case is monetary salvation. HAR! Let us see what THAT buys them! The day of awakening will only come when they say 'NO', and at the same time understand what they REALLY need to do to escape their debt slavery!!!! COME ON EVERYONE and JUST SAY NO!!!

Eldorado Superb Speach mate!

Eldo: Your comments on the New World Odor, reminded me of a column by Georgie Ann Geyer today. She was relating the present trend of events inside Russia and the implications they will have for that benighted land. ..... as well as the rest of us.

In her opinion as well as those well placed inside Russia, the Russian mafia is rapidly aquiring effective power over the affairs of state. The political establishment continues to be unequal to the task of maintaining governance. The implication, in her opinion, is that Russia will be the first modern nation governed entirely by a criminal trust. .... Unless, the rest of the world - and the Russians - open their collective eyes to what is really happening and disabuse themselves of the silly idea that the Russians are merely undergoing a transitional stage on their way to democracy.

"Buying protection" will now take on a whole new meaning in the affairs of men. ..... A hundred suitcase nukes missing and unaccounted for. .... The comment was also made that, Russia is rapidly losing all control over its nuclear arsenal as well. ...... What next?

Nick, Nick, if'n'u's'uns don't show up soon I'm gonna post an AUssie Joke...;-]

The lantern-Jawed australian smiley face he he,, I'm gonna get in trouble tonight...

testing Barts new posting.

At last! It's good to be in the saddle again! Haven't had a chance to read all the days posts yet, so I hope this is not old territory. Here is the best site I have come across for the Y2K problem. http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/ More mainstream than Gary North's site, but still alarming. Someone posted 2 sites the other night ( Nick? ) , so if this is a repeat, apologies for stealing your thunder! Highly recommended! If El Nino doesn't burst this bubble, then Y2K is definately a big enough prick to do it!

Auric Howdy pardner..
Any of you Westies see the stars or do you all live in cities. Mike Sheller, I hope you can look up and wonder.. please tell me you can.
* * * ***

Auric, as you won't be able to scroll back more than a couple of hours, it is a sort of convenient collective kitco amnesia...I can feel myself working on another stanza, BTW anyone can join in. Yesterday 9which no longer exists, i heard Mike Dash editor of the Fortean Times being interviewed on our Public Radio ( bestest ) about his new book "Borderlands"..remember those statues of Ganesha weeping milk all over the world? Dash "We can expect more reports of bleeding, weeping and moving statues..."
I urge kitcoites, in the spirit of Rudyard Kipling ( me old mate Rudi )
Keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you..
and hunt out Charles Fort's The Book of the Damned, the last printing, as far as I am aware was in abacus in 1973, though you might find something at amazon.
Auric has previously posted great URLs ;- ) )

What a wonderful world.
I trade mark myself, and my ID number decreases by 1.
I wonder if I can make a market...

FOR SALE



Earl 01:51 - "first modern nation governed entirely by a criminal trust"?
I guess "modern" is the key word in this statement. Russia has been
ruled by criminal's and thugs for decades..

Earl
and a deft neologism it was too..

Kuston, G'day, and name me one country that isn't? ;- ) )
only at kitco

Howdy Aurator! I've been giving this Y2K problem a lot of thought lately. I'm not saying one should head for the hills and live in a cave, to mix metaphors, but serious disruptions WILL occur. It has not really crept into public consciousness yet, but it will. If nothing else, it may become a self fulfilling prophecy. My guess is that we won't have to wait until January 1, 2000 for the effects to be severely felt. If we were not in such an inflated paper asset bubble, we could weather this much better. But we are, and it is going to be ugly! How ugly, no one can know. But it WILL be ugly.

Aurator--you're in fine form today, mate. Don't need no help from us heathen 'cross the Tasman. Start tellin Aussie jokes, mate, and I'll go find my book of Kiwi/sheep jokes. Might even start a trade war between our two gracious countries ( even if the only thing you guys have to trade is SHEEP ) .

Canucks--I need some help. One of your Vancouver listed companies ( West African Gold Corp ) has just offered me 23,750 of their shares ( last traded @C$1.15 ) for my 475,000 Takoradi Gold ( last traded @A$.029 ) . This is a takeover offer for Takoradi's Ghana gold properties. Can any Canucks or Yanks out there with knowledge of the Vancouver Stock Exchange give me a little advice etc. on these predators. I'm all for predation, mind you. It's how I make a living!! Any Kitcoites in Vancouver with some knowledge of this company??

It should always be kept on the front burner, but judging how they always convince the public -when the heat rises- that they solved the problem.
Goldbugs be aware.
Many, many problems exist today with minimal movements on the gold price.
Conclusion: make it happen today, BUY THE YELLOW.

Auric, Kuston---G'day mates. Strange hours some people keep. Must be nothin' exciting to do in Indiana!! Aurator--watch it with those big words, mate--what's this neologism stuff--don't wanna teach Ted any new words--just look what's happened since he learned to cut 'n paste!! Gotta keep them northerners thinkin we got hay stickin out of our ears ( in your case--fleece ) .

To the subject of this chat site--GOLD down big time in OZ today. Just about time to start buyin' again, folks. This is going to be a long gruelling bunjee jump, folks -- so start gettin' used to the whiplash!!! All the chickenshorts out there had better just sit on the sidelines and watch the game go back and forth--but if you want to get yer adrenaline flowing--come on into the water--nice 'n warm--but lot's of sharks. Speaking of which--Do any of you know why there are no great white sharks in the waters off the north of Australia?? Answer: because the crocs have eaten them all!!Well folks--the paper crocs are gonna be fightin' back--so watch yer backside!!

Nick, G'day ;-]
not here for long, but be careful with that word Yank. Just as I feel insulted when i get called an australian, so too, many of the fine folk who live south of the Mason-Dixon may get offended by being called Yank.
Texan liberators and Taco belters notwithstanding.
rich in Tacobelt no?
;- ) )

Howdy Nick! I think most of the world is in a state of denial about the bubble we are in. IMHO there is a closing window of opportunity to take advantage of this state of affairs. I have an increasing sense of urgency to have all my affairs standing tall before this hits. I would say this task is about 90% complete. I plan to tighten up a few details here and there in the days and weeks ahead. For example, tomorrow I will go to my local coin shop and purchase a couple of bags of "junk" silver US coins. Could prove to be a MOST handy thing to have in the near future!

Nick yup, remember big bull and little bull

My most humble apologies to any Yanks living below the Mason/Dixon line. I shall in future have to refer to you as Yanks/Rebs or perhaps Americans ( an insult to all those below the Rio Grande or above the whatever it is parallel ( 49th??-- You know--Canucks!! ) . In the big one--WW2-- the Aussies had only three complaints about the millions of Yanks/Rebs in OZ. 1 ) over paid 2 ) over sexed and 3 ) over here!! Just kiddin'--you ever find any better friends on this planet than Aussies--let me know. Now do us a favour ( favor ) and get that yeller stuff moving up again so's I can make more money.

What are the Brits hearing on radio about now???

Harrison quits over BZW sale plan
By Helen Dunne, Banking Correspondent
BILL Harrison resigned last night as chief executive of BZW amid the biggest shake-up of the investment bank since it was put together as part of the Big Bang more than a decade ago.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000446599501809&rtmo=341b6fda&atmo=341b6fda&P4_FOLLOW_ON=/97/10/3/cbzw03.html&pg=/et/97/10/3/cbzw03.html

Auric--good ta see the USA hasn't disappeared!! I remember reading some Harry Browne books a few years ago--whatever happened to that old scoundrel, anyway?? He was advising everyone to buy $1000 bags of silver coins. When the price of silver tumbled, many brought their bags in to sell. Some of 'em smelled like shxx!!! Didn't know you guys had outdoor dunnies ta hide yer precious stuff in?? Someone should do an essay on Kitco some time on favorite hidin' places--VERY sensitive topic. No one would think of lookin under my two rottweilers!! Even if they did--wouldn't do em no good!!

Nick, am overjoyed you understand what an insult it is to be called australian. stay cool till after school. ;- ) BTW anymore pennydreadfulls ?
I gotta go..

Aurator--didn't miss it --I was turnin' the other cheek. Now I've got TWO red cheeks!!!

I'll never make a record or anything...
zzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

Couple more days of consolidation--then we're off to the races again folks. Get yer possies ( positions ) in place in the next few days for the next ride on the roller coaster!!!

MAJOR Axiom 11 ( AuratorAxiom Aug15 19:30 ) - on STUBBORNESS - if it doesn't pay off the first time forget it... AND Minor Axiom VI ( for NJ 22:39 ) Beware the chartist's illusion...

I have sifted through all the posts tonight. It's been quite active tonight. It is some of the same stuff I read last week while sifting through last years posts on December 31/Jan 5 and such. ( when Glenn had that string of multiple posts ( to say the least ) . You guys sound the same now as you did then and meanwhile ( back at the ranch ) gold has been in a serious downtrend. Gold will/is/gonna/'must'/should/guaranteed turn the corner. Been hearing/reading this since $425.00...I know this is a Gold discussion but can't you discuss gold being in as serious trouble as the 'dipster'driven stock market?? ( and i STILL can't understand this 'dipster' thing anyway, I guess it's meant in derogatory fashion, can't figure that one ) . Can't you say let's sort gold and when this trend is over let's go LONG? I don't get it. I throw my hands up again...maybe i'm tired. I don't know...

Grinny-Thingy-Boy - Post till you're blue-in-the-face... many will ( again ) miss the $$$ making opps. I, for one, recognize experience ( AND logic ) and can leave my emotions 'at the door'. I am continuously Flabbergasted at the 'experts' here...anybody got some gas-x?? your 23:34 to GSC - you said it, I wanted to...

Eldorado - have you been drinking 2-nite?? btw, Corn will continue down...obey the trend... and drink more OJ with your vodka.

Scotty - Yep! Let's go Indians. We don't need no Yankees and Stienbrenner ( sp? ) in the series...

Earl - you're stuff is PHAT!

Donald - I missed you Fibonacci stuff and I am a big fan of that dude. Can you post the time of that post, PLEASE? I have so much back reading to do. My head is swimming.

#364147 - the Yankees?!? Best said by Bart Simpson... DOH! :- ) ( emoticon-thingees-abound ) ;-Q ) ;-^ ) :-0! 8- )

away...to the warmth of blankies and woman and dreams of platinum soring...ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

EB$
g'day you OZ/NZ's!! had some Newkie-Browns ( sorry, English ) tonight...yummy!

Nick you a pisces? Sensitive..is that sunburn?? ;-{ sorry to slap those shoulders ) ...Nick you will be amazed how few Westies actually see the sun without smog, the stars without streetlights......wool me not..;- )
Astrological reference to bid good morning to Mike Sheller, and to introduce a little spice, in case anyone thought i'd lost my touch
little action
;-} real gone

'nite Aurator--off to the basketball for about three hours to see Canberra play N. Melbourne in the finals. Time for someone else to look after things--just before I go...

clink--clink--clink

Ladies and Gentlemen--a toast!!!

TO BART!!!!

For he's a jolly good fellow...

And so say all of us

my precious

Clink

Cherokee, Earl-
Sollog's site taken off by CIA-found a new url at http://www.bahnhof.se/~wizard/pope/ Can't find anything about Gold though??

EB: Re Fibonacci. All I said was that when an index fails to make a new high within a Fibonacci 55 days it is usually a sign of a failure. The Dow is in that situation now. Many of the indexes have made new highs, but not the Dow. That is a problem for the stock fans.

STRAD MASTER: Toto we're back in Kansas. Good one. In order to read Kitco Mr. Greenspan must stand on his head, the blood rushing to his head will restore him to the youthful Alan Greenspan type of pro-gold thinking we need.

Donald: You're up already! Looks like the posts about Reynold's numbers last night were on the mark. Last night's Kitco posts have apparently been swept into the eddies and turbulence of the past. But not before I learned that Kiwi has a background in fluid mechanics.
Seriously, I think your and RJ's assessment is closet to the mark on gold/gold stocks. There is no harm in investing some assets in the current gold stock rally, but one should be prepared for a faltering, and respond accordingly. The tome by BB Fisher, who is worthy of great respect, really refers to longer term trends than the next two weeks when he examines the slow maneuvering of Homestake. I do agree with him that next year we may have our last big stock market rally -- this will be the period of maximally rising sunspot activity. However, at the same time gold will be moving up long term.
I still maintain that the key to what happens next is Greenspan. My question still stands unanswered. How can he flood the international market with dollars at this point, and prevent inflation in the near future at home? That former gold bug+Ayn Rand correspondent still may have some tricks up his sleeve before the luck runs out, and the flight from paper assets to real assets begins in earnest.

Rupiah Plunges 9.3%, Ringgit Down 1.9% on Bank Worry

The Indonesian rupiah collapsed, tumbling as much as 9.3 percent to the U.S. dollar, on concern
that high interest rates and slowing economic growth could lead to losses at the nation's banks and
companies. The rupiah fell as much as 317.5, to 3,725, to the dollar, a record low, on speculation
that interest rates at six-year highs, combined with $55 billion in foreign debt held by Indonesian
companies, will expose cracks in the banking sector. In Malaysia, the ringgit fell as much as 1.9
percent, to as low as 3.3863 per dollar. Moody's Investors Service said today it may cut its credit
ratings on two of Malaysia's largest banks, reflecting concern about a rise in bad loans as a result of
an economic slowdown. Moody's announcement added to speculation that Indonesia's banks may
also face credit downgrades.

Indonesian Stock Index Tumbles 4.2% as Rupiah Collapses

Indonesia's benchmark stock index tumbled 4.2 percent, as a free-falling rupiah added to concerns
that high domestic interest rates will slash corporate profits and drive some firms out of business.
The benchmark Jakarta Stock Market Composite Index fell 22.52 points, to 514.41, its biggest
one-day drop in more then five weeks and its lowest in a month. Of the traded stocks, 123 fell and
4 rose. Leading the declines were the country's largest, most easily traded companies.

Does anyone know of a site where I can get quotes on the Aussie Gold Index? I've found a couple but they have been late or inaccurate. An alternative: does anyone know the symbol for it on DBC or Yahoo, or some other quote service?? Thanks

Donald: Your comments about the SE Asia crisis not being over were prophetic! Indonesia is still dropping. China and Hong Kong are the key. Anything about India and Pakistan --- did they really raise gasoline prices 40% and keep them up?

Good Morning JTF: Up early every morning, best time of day for me. My worry about the gold chart is from our recent index work. If we are correct about a Dow selloff gold shares will be caught up in that as in 1987. The metal stayed strong during that time and our index plunged from 33 to 19 over a few days. The XAU itself fell from 155 to 90 in the same few days. Within a month the XAU was back up to 130 but trended lower through the balance of 1987 and all of 1988.

DONALD: Re '87 - That was after gold stocks had had a very nice run, rising 100 & 200% & more for many issues over a year or so. There is no comparison now. Gold shares are washed out, while the rest of the stock market is flush.

To All: Good news or bad news? Syria prepares for war, but prefers to talk peace

http://www.jpost.com/News/Article-4.html

Donald, Mike Sheller: I think Mike is right about this one. We haven't had the flight to gold stocks that preceeded the 87 market crash. The gold stock market is so thin, only a few investors need to "see the light"

For those who like to think ahead ( not backwards ) there is a nice Rhino forming up in the Weekly Copper chart. Price now is at support, while the upside breakout would appear to have potential in the 118 ish area. The next month or two will determine. I would not necessarily write off a business cycle expansion before copper has had a notable run, and perhaps even an impressive spike.

Gold and silver are the bargains of the century.
http://www.talks.com:80/matador.html

JTF: The metals move in '86-87 was a combination of typical end of cycle industrial sector strength for gold, along with, as you point out, a "flight" from the devalued dollar of 85-89 ( Plaza Accord, was it? ) In Spring of '87 Gold, and notably Silver, had powerful moves after bonds began tanking severely. Bonds stabilized for a while, then resumed crashing prior to the stock collapse. The decline in bonds was quite severe by the time that stock players panicked . There has been no weakness in bonds to compare at this time, and no indication of it appearing soon, except, of course, for some exogenous factor.

MIKE, JTF: In an emotional selloff like 1987 everything speculative gets sold off in fear or in a desperate attempt to raise cash. Physical gold would be the last thing to go and the 1987 charts reflects that.

Howdy Donald--Good to have Kitco back, eh? I must be a latent Antipodian as I am just getting ready for bed. Could be the shifts I work also. I have forgotten the concept of a "day" job! Hi Mike--Gotta go with you on the gold stock question. The soil is of a different kind in '97 ( oops, make that 1997! ) than 1987. Although, who really knows in these times? Gotta play the cards you have the way you think best.

Donald: Your Matador post is good reading. It is time for all of us to think globally. What will happen to the Western world when all of those
SE Asian goods flood our markets? The world ecosystem cycles include the markets.

Donald: You are right about physical gold staying up during the 87 crash. What I and ( I think ) Mike Sheller are saying is that we have not yet had the flight to gold/gold stocks yet. Gold bullion is without a doubt the safer asset, because if the markets do crash for whatever reason, all paper assets will go, even gold stocks. Those margin calls will get everyone except the physical gold bullion owners.

Hi Auric: This is my night job! All: Take a look at the 1987 XAU chart. Notice the wave shape and prices from March ( 145 ) dropped to July ( 105 ) then straight up to October ( 155 ) . That run-up from July to October was in step with the general stock market. Could we be in a similar spot now ( 105 ) , running up with stocks for the next four months during a false inflation scare? A Dow top in January? The Dow would need to move 200 points up today to give credence to that scenario. If the Dow doesn't set a new high almost immediately it is a serious non-confirmation as other indexes are setting them daily.

RLM
For Ozzie Gold Index
Try http://www.dicksons.com.au/daily.htm
Or http://www.asx.com.au/
Go to 'Market News'

Here's a positive re. Y2K. There's a little known company called
THINKING TOOLS. They've got ideas on how to get management's attention
to "start draining the swamp"...read for yourselves...

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/10/02/chv_tsim_1.html

With such uncertainty in what lies ahead for the next 3-5 years,
my plan is to accumulate gold and silver assets, collectable
guns ( with ammo ) , and Meals-Ready to-Eat ( MREs ) . All are
valuable in good times and bad and will keep for years and if
things go to hell in a handbasket, I would rather have than be
without and be in a position to help my fellow man as well.

Away!

Donald, all: If our current gold stock rally survives the next two weeks with a surge in the US stock market, weve probably have an intermediate - term rally in gold stocks. ( Barring some unexpected action from the AGreenspan/CBank circles ) . We must also watch the commodity price index, because a collapse in commodity prices would overwhelm our little rally.

To all: Did we just have a 75cent drop in silver, or did we just hit year 2000 several years early? All this paper asset stuff makes me nervous!

RJ:The gold paradigm is shifting in a fundamental way. The huge volume and very strong upside action in the gold stocks tells me that.

Gold soared during the 1970s despite heavy CB selling and will do so again. The prospect of further CB sales already has been discounted in the marketplace. The CB selling bogeyman is the wall of worry this nascent gold bull will climb.

No doubt the gold bears still have considerable ammunition and this bull will be bumpy for awhile. But it is time to buy the dips. Still much too early to chase rallies.

What's with silver? 439?

Now silver back again. Bart's computer must have burped.

Earl, you quoted another journalist about Russia and how the criminal element is taking over: "it would first modern nation governed entirely by a criminal trust." First of all, I think our current American administration already has that title.

2nd, has there ever been a government that WASN'T composed of the criminal element? Put the Russia Mafia in nice business suits, let'em realize they can use the State's laws & corrupted legal system to make their hits, instead of guns ... and you won't be able to tell them apart from the French, American or British leaders.

Markets to fall 40% '98-'99 due to Y2K.
http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Economy/Predictions/wi9737.htm

To all you surfers out there. Go get yourself a 'Netmouse'.
I did and the browsing has never been better.
The netmouse has an inbuilt scroll button plus a few other fancy gadgets. @ $25 Aus its a bargain from 'Genius.'

Markets to fall 40% '98-'99 due to Y2K.

To all you surfers out there. Go get yourself a 'Netmouse'.
I did and the browsing has never been better.
The netmouse has an inbuilt scroll button plus a few other fancy gadgets. @ $25 Aus its a bargain from 'Genius.'

DONALD: The Dow Industrials are entitled to somewhat of a lag here. It's the REST of the market that must exhibit strength for this bull to remain upright. The leadership has been big caps for the longest time, and rightly so. But now the momentum and the money must circulate into the rest of the list. This is proving to be healthy, and may inspire the last speculative waves of this cycle. I am still looking for an unfolding top formation, or major chart pattern, to set up. Then we may have some definable tension lines in place to anticipate future price movements. I think it is still a bit early, especially as bonds continue to levitate. Enjoy! Buy a small cap speculative stock that's been beaten down ( preferably one with Pluto about to conjunct it's Sun ) . Have another cocktail...the party isn't over quite yet. The Asian turmoil will just serve to keep cheap goods flowing a bit longer, staving off cost pushes and gently feeding the expansion.

GENERAL: I have the original Army recipe for SOS if you want bit..

Statements by Dr. Mahathir may be a deliberate attempt to devalue the ringgit.
http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/971002/world/world2.html

Internationally acclaimed Technical Analyst has performed another insightful study destined to be called "THE Homestake Mining Prophecy." His analysis exudes incisive thinking, and is expressed with great clarity:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/fisher1001.html

The consensus estimate is 325,000 jobs created and the reality is: 215,000 jobs created....Long Bond should soar on these weak #'s...

Long Bond up 23 ticks and those "evil stox" are up big ( S+P futures up 9.50 ) ....EB: Don't diss my main-man,George Steinbrenner and the "Bombers"

Can't read any comments...I'm outta here!

Re the article Donald posted, could the attempts by Malaysia's
Dr. Mahathir to devalue MYR be a prelude to selling of gold or
perhaps local currency based futures contracts for Malaysian
exports like palm oil, rubber etc? Since the commodities are priced
in USD, this means more money for them. If the curency bounces
back, they make a quick profit, even in US$.

The 1 January 2000 is not the only danger date for IT systems. The Institution of Electrical Engineers has identified a series of dates to watch over the next 40 years:
1998: 98 used in older programs to indicate break in a file or sequence.
22 Aug 1999: problem with geographical positioning systems.
December 1999: period of maximum solar activity, which may affect comms devices and systems.
1999: 99 used in older systems as an end-of-file indicator.
9 Sept 1999: a date ( as 9999 ) often used as an end-of-file indicator.
12. 1999: end-of-file indicator in older systems.
31 Dec 1999: year 2000; also in some older systems as an end-of-file indicator.
28 Feb-1 March 2000: leap year problem.
2030: breakpoint used by Microsoft in many of its products: 30 will imply 1930.
18 Jan 2038: overflow problem at 03:14:08 on Tuesday 19 January 2038 as the seconds counter used for date/time information in Unix, C and C++ reaches overload.

$PREM up over 2,000 basis points! Talk about a rally! Thirty year bond got as low as 6.15%... so far! Kitco has gold up $0.55 and EBN has gold down $0.40, Jeez, I like Kitcos' numbers better!

DONALD,

Would be appreaciated if you post again the location of dr.mahathir'speech....thanks!
try this: http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971003005659028?=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=1739
and : http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971003005659037?=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2266
thanks....

New millennium could be a cybernightmare
By Patrice Hill
The Washington Times
Talk of recession is rare these days, but some prominent forecasters are saying the economy's seemingly charmed life could end in the year 2000
with a crash as key computer system failures trigger widespread work stoppages. One of the strongest warnings to date of the potential danger to the world economy from computers being unable to recognize the year 2000 came in a statement issued by the central banks of the top 10 industrialized countries after meeting in Basel, Switzerland, Sept. 9.
The statement noted a potential for chaos and failure in the international banking system unless the world's banks take action immediately not only to ensure that their own computers can function after the turn of the century but that their billions of business
and individual customers are ready for the changeover. "The year 2000 issue is potentially the biggest challenge ever faced by the financial industry," the G-10 officials said, noting that "weak links in the
payments system" could pose a risk even to banks and businesses whose computer systems are functioning smoothly. The year 2000 problem may seem small and technical, but the G-10 concluded that it would be "formidable" for anyone who doesn't take it seriously. Computers and computer-driven equipment that are not programmed to read the date "January 1, 2000"
must be reprogrammed or replaced. Based partly on the Basel report, some
prominent forecasters on Wall Street -- including Deutsche Morgan Grenfell and J.P. Morgan -- see dire consequences for the economy and financial markets unless business and government pick up the
pace of efforts to resolve the computer problem. Only about 11 percent of American businesses so far have reprogrammed their systems, while key
government agencies such as the Internal Revenue Service and Defense Department admit they have a long way to go. Still, U.S. institutions by and large are miles ahead of their counterparts overseas, the experts say. "The year 2000 problem is a serious threat to the global economy," said Edward Yardeni, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell's chief economist. Otherwise known for his optimism, the closely watched forecaster puts
the odds of a mild recession starting in 2000 at 35 percent -- "significant, but not inevitable." "Computers are critical to transportation, energy, distribution, payroll, just-in-time manufacturing
processes, international trade, delivery of oil supplies, aircraft flying patterns and scheduling - everything is affected by this one," he said, adding that it would be impossible to predict where things will go wrong but that something almost certainly would. "The main risk is the domino effect," where computer and business failures start out as isolated
instances and then spread to other sectors, he said. In the United States, the biggest threat appears to be the IRS, which recently got a "D-minus" grade from the General Accounting Office because it is so
far behind upgrading its utmoded computers. The tax-collection agency, which takes in one-fifth of the income generated by businesses and
individuals each year, "unambiguously admits their computer systems probably will fail in 2000," Mr. Yardeni said. Other forecasters dismiss such dire predictions, saying the economy can withstand any disruptions
caused by the computer changeover at the turn of the century and is likely to even prosper before then because of the universal rush to buy the equipment needed to correct the problem. Some corporate and government managers believe software manufacturers soon will develop a
"silver bullet" to quickly and cheaply resolve the problem for most computer users, though many experts downplay that possibility. They've got three years to figure it out. I'm not worried about it," said Joel Prakken with Macroeconomic Advisers, a St. Louis forecasting firm. "Only people using old programs and the Cobalt program developed 25 years ago are going to get screwed up by this." David Wyss, economist with DRI/McGraw-Hill in Boston, said "serious" economic disruptions could
occur as a result of major failures of computers and microchips, particularly in the banking or telecommunications system. "But no catastrophe seems likely," because most businesses seem to be taking adequate precautions. Should a calamity occur -- like the failure of a
major foreign bank -- the Federal Reserve and other central banks will step in to prevent a recession, he said. "It will probably be only a hassle, not the end of Western civilization," he said.

S&P Futures up 12+ long bond at 6.19%. A new paradigm.The NYSE should go nuts today.

Donald -- This one is for you, http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/03/twx_y0014_1.html

Who says the media isn't controlled???

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/03/z0009_21.html

earl---

the sollog sites you can find with a web search
are quite numerous. most will give an access denied
message. keep trying all the url's listed, some are
operational and will get you to links for other pages.
this is worth pursuing.

major crash today----- ( up )
ted---irrascibility does not become you!; )

volatility---the buzz-word for the future

Panda -- That's probably why I've heard of them being called the 'Communist News Network'! I suppose if a shoe fits....

GOLD-EAGLE's September SPOTLIGHT beams on the Oracle of Hong Kong. To read his honored study & Biography, just CLICK on the Hall of Fame September plaque:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/awards/spotlight.html

Louis Cypher : Jerry Favors has been looking for the markets to peak at these levels. According to him today is also the Bradley turn date. http://www.marketweb.com/commentary/JF1001.HTM

http://www.lovearth.org/lovearth.htm Ok Ok so this is a pretty liberal site to link to but If you haven't thought through the"Cassini" space mission, you should. Every one here at this site is interested in odds. Every day we use this premise to some degree in trading. Well, NASA thinks it's pretty good at figuring odds as well but their record shows otherwise. On Oct.13th at 4:45EDT, NASA is firing the rocket wich will take the Cassini Saturn Explorer spacecraft on it's appointed rounds.
First of course we ( yes the US arbitrarily as usual ) must get this craft airbourne and hope the craft and its load of 72.3 POUNDS OF PLUTONIUM don't explode on lift off spreading a cloud of radioactive material acrosshalf a continent killing perhaps only two million people. The real problem occurs when we bring this craft back by earth for a low altitude ( read that VERY near entering earth's atmosphere ) "slingshot" manouever to gain speed for it's journey to Saturn. At that point the odds are 1 in 345 that the spacecraft will enter and burn up in our atmousphere thus spreading a super fine mist of plutonium over several continents ( and we've all been waiting for some new illness to accomplish this ) . NASA said in 1983 that the odds for a space shuttle disaster were 1 in 150,000, with the Challenger the odds went "even" ( 50/50 ) . With each new mission we go one out so I figure were somewhere around 20 to 1 odds of a repeat occurence. Lastly all this talk of the y2k is intrigueing but you'll be glad to know that that sceduled earth fly-by is to occure at the end of August 1999. If any of you have a penchant for calenders/ dates and how we got'em, please go here: ( especially you Mike Sheller! ) http://www.pbm.com/~lindahl/rialto/calenders-msg.html

Just suppose the Dow should reverse today and finish lower. Is there any good news left that it hasn't discounted? It's a long way down from here.

Tick exploded over 1220
1st time it has gone over 1000 since the market has topped.
I have heard that readings of over 1000 only occur at market tops.

Revised statistics ( you'd think I was a gov't agency )
Due to a calculation error ( day hit counts were added to posting totals ) ,
the September Posting stats have changed as follows:

HANDLES - ( mostly case sensitive )
Total approx 540
Daily average: 68.6
Highest daily handle count: 109 on 19970924 ( ID DAY? )
Lowest daily handle count: 39 on 19970927

POSTS: ( this is the revised area )
Total: 7242
Daily Avg: 241
Highest per day count: 367 on 19970911
Lowest per day count: 109 on 19970926

Top Ten Handles by post count during September
POSTS HANDLE
706 Donald ( Keep it coming! )
342 Ted ( Are you closer to Mina or Main--Dieu? )
317 6pak
306 nomercy
221 LGB
193 Who Cares
176 Auric
176 Mike Sheller
174 Nick
163 aurator

Kitco Faithful ( or addicted? ;- )
Count of days in which they posted in September
DAYS HANDLE
30 Donald
30 panda
29 6pak
29 Ted
27 George Cole
27 nomercy
27 vronsky
26 Mike Sheller
26 Nick
25 Auric

Thanks to Bart and his diligent crew for making the whole thing possible!
Special thanks to Miro, gunrunner, Gene & LGB.
Craig McNeal Hobart ( relatives in Tazmania? )
aka ID#346140, Lazarus, Craig, Scaredlurker, Lunatic?

Stay tuned for next months installment ( who has the most ID's? )

Back to the shadows ;- )

JIN: http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/971002/world/world2.html

It's good to know the world is still here, even though I missed the Kitco site for the past day or so. This is a TOP site. Am impressed with George Cole's credentials ( as per the Gold Eagle site details ) .

IN CASE you missed this article when the system fell over, here we go again....

SEPTEMBER IN HONG KONG
By Bob Santamaria - Australia
NEWS WEEKLY, OCTOBER 4, 1997

( Bob Santamaria is an eighty year old who survived the great depresssion. Considering a few people here are expecting one, wisdom says listen to a past survivor - Steve )

Perhaps the most important get-together of the past week has been in Hong
Kong where the World Bank ( accompanied by the International Monetary
Fund ) was holding its annual meeting. This reportedly attracted an attendance of some 50 international bankers and government officials. Several lectures from world financial leaders were delivered to mark the occasion; among which the most newsworthy were the talks in which the Malaysian Prime Minister, Mohammed Mahathir, and the Hungarian-American
billionaire currency speculator, George Soros, exchanged verbal insults, although to some extent, they seemed to be saying the same thing. They both warned against the dangers which unstable global financial speculation manipulated by institutional investors -- like Mr Soros himself -- represented to human well-being; and the need for governments  normally advised not to interfere -- to provide a safety net against the depredations of the speculators. ( How this can actually be done in an international regime of open financial markets is another question ) .

Meanwhile a different part of the globe saw action rather than words. One
of the US's wealthiest men, Warren Buffett -- whose personal investment policies ( insofar as they are revealed ) are watched with bated breath by other investors - was reported to have moved billions of dollars out of ordinary shares to enable him to invest $US6 billion in government bonds, held to be a much safer refuge. This was inevitably interpreted as an indication by one of the most perspicacious American investors that the US share market was approaching its peak and would undergo a "correction" ( meaning a "bust" ) . This, in turn, drew attention to the fact that as far back as last July, one of the major Wall Street investment banks, Merrill Lynch, had forecast that early next year there would be a 25% fall in US share values . A "brother" investment bank, Salomon Bros., had independently forecast that the fall in values could be as much as 40%.

With Soros, Buffett, Merrill Lynch and Salomon Bros. all making similar
noises, the atmosphere was eerily reminiscent of that of early 1929 when things were still going famously but when the gurus of the US Federal Reserve were already aware that the situation had actually become explosive.

When the World Bank-IMF meeting was originally fixed to take place in
Hong Kong this September, the timing and place were meant to celebrate the Asian economic miracle. By the time the appointed date had come around, the "miracle" had blown itself up, and in its place there were currency crashes of varying degrees of intensity in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, followed by currency devaluations, historically high interest rates ( to attract foreign capital which wasn't biting ) and rapidly increasing unemployment. One of the intellectual exercises entered into by the IMF has been to examine whether it could devise a formula which would enable banks and other lenders to forecast which particular countries were heading for a "bust" so that they could get their money out in time. At the time of writing no such formula has
been propounded -- or, at least, disclosed. Without attempting to invent non-existent formulas, might one suggest that there is a conjunction of events that can place a relatively-advanced economy like Australia's in a position of danger, in which its options are no longer in its hands. Briefly, to the point of over-simplification, even advanced countries place themselves at risk of collapse when four factors come simultaneously into conjunction: a heavy unrepayable load of foreign debt; continual heavy deficits in the balance of current account;
a low volume of financial reserves; and open currency exchanges, the consequence of which is that the country in question forfeits control of capital movements in and out of the country.

Australia labors under all four and, under existing policies, the situation will not change. If, or whether, or when, one of the celebrated international speculators will decide to have a crack at us is an open question. What is to be done? It is not merely a matter of tariffs, nor merely a matter of reversing the decisions to undertake what privatisations remain e.g. NSW electricity supplies; the Victorian
transport system. This situation can probably still be met by adopting a coherent series of programs which are not mere figments of the imagination, but all of which have in fact been applied by different countries. Among other things, the Australian Federal Government needs to insist that the Reserve Bank exploit the full power given to it by its charter, which prescribes the maintenance of full employment, to finance infrastructure at nominal interest rates, as the quickest way of directly
tackling unemployment. It is necessary to rebuild the Commonwealth Bank
or its equivalent according to its original charter and concept, to make cheap credit available to both small business and agriculture, Australia's compulsory superannuation plan will have to be reorganised -- once again -- on the model of Singapore's Compulsory Provident Fund. The compulsory allocation of 30% of superannuation fund income to domestic bonds, once mandatory, should be resumed; and a revenue tax or primage duty placed over all Australian imports which at 15% would today realise a net $10 billion p.a. rising to $20 billion by 2001-2002. These are the most important measures, all difficult, but none impossible. They would represent a new beginning and give us a fighting chance. Without them, the ustralian economy is like an army, in a hostile battlefield,
which has pulled down all of its defences. If a new 1929 were to develop, we would be driven to undertake measures similar to these in any case. Why not undertake them before the situation makes them mandatory?

Nick @ 10:12 -- Not true, the news was real good for equities. So the $TICK is just reflecting that most were buyers instead of sellers. $TICK, $TRIN, up volume versus down volume, $ADV versus $DECL look real good to me. This market is going higher. Until those numbers change... Up, up, and AWAY!

Look, even gold is moving up this morning.

Colleen: "Sollog's site taken off by CIA-found a new url" ..... It's more serious than that. They've also taken your new one. .... As well, they seem to have installed some of that 'parental control' software in my machine. .... Must conclude that this Guru has a lock on bitter truth that the US govt does not wish us to see.

Re: Mahathir "Outbursts". I suspect more than a few people in Malaysia would be thinking what Mahathir is saying re currency speculators. Being an excellent Politician, I cannot imagine him making outbursts as such unless he knew he had wide under the surface support in his country. I think a number of countries are getting sick & tired of Soros & crew. Let me rob you & jam up your employment figures, while I dish out a healthy percentage to my mates in the ex communist block etc. An Australian senator questioned the open cheque book to Thailand the other day. She stated that all we were doing were protecting the big foreign banks and large individual investors who may be burned over Thailand. At the taxpayers expense in Australia!! With money we haven't got & are borrowing from some other stinking foreign bank etc.
Back to Mahathir. What some people forget is that Australia's currency was regulated before 1985, & our unemployment was nothing like it is now. I suspect a number of countries will fall in behind Mahathir down the track, if not now. Unfortunately this is not the correct response Soros is supposed to be invoking. We should be falling over ourselves & demanding a one world currency from a one world bank, thus preventing different currencies to trade. That is the main game, but Mahathir is not taking the bait....

Donald, JTF and Mike: Your common thread this morning seems to fit in with BB Fisher's comments. ..... If the final and major move in stocks is scheduled for next year; gold's next move, in timing and extent, would fit nicely into the same pattern as 1987. ...... Mike: A fractal of 1987?

I lost the link to the delayed Major Market Indexes, including the XOI and XAU. I would appreciate a post of links. Thank you.

PANDA, EARL: Censorship stories recently from Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia also. We have to assume the worst I guess. The public has been brainwashed by the media about the good times. Even very intelligent people can't see it. Gold is up so some of our message is leaking out and creating at least a few converts.

CARL: A reversal today? Wouldn't that be something!

Badger, I usually show good taste in refraining from vicious, rip-out-the-throat ad hominem attacks, but your parroting of the mindless, polyanna Cassini "plutonium" scare IS ENOUGH! HOW MANY PEOPLE WILL DIE WORLD-WIDE *FOR CERTAIN* FROM SMOKING THIS YEAR? FROM DRINKING ALCOHOL? FROM CRAMMING DOWN FATTY FAST FOOD? MILLIONS AT LEAST - FOR CERTAIN. AND YOU & YOUR MINDLESS IDIOT ILK ARE AFRAID OF A FEW GRAMS OF PLUTONIUM THAT MIGHT STATICICALLY CAUSE AT MOST 120 EXTRA CANCERS? HYPOCRITE! For those interested in a more reasoned estimation of the Cassini space probe "risk" of release, read the back page editorial of this week's issue of "Aviation Week & Space Technology". When this kind of idiot, moronic, baseless BS fear-mongering over the Cassini power source becomes widespread, we must truely be living in end-times. What about all that evil radioactive Americium isotope in everyone's home fire detectors? Or ( shudder ) the radioactive Carbon-14 in your wife or girlfriend ( s ) ??! Oh my God! What is my chance of getting cancer from my girlfriend re-entering and spreading her radioactive ashes all over the earth!!!? What if all women, everywhere were to re-enter the earth's atmosphere! Nooo ... nooooooo .... can't let myself die from female Carbon-14 induced cancer ... must get Vince Foster's revolver in my mouth ... must hurry ... before it's too late ... BANG! ... missed ... BANG! ... ahhhh ... dying from lead poisoning now ... helppppp ... helppp....

JTF: "We must also watch the commodity price index, because a collapse in commodity prices" ...... We should also factor in a mitigating element as well. That is the impossibility of debt service around the world but especially in the US. It's a problem that was not nearly as acute in 1987. If and when the issue of debt service, in the US, becomes widely recognized, gold ( PM's ) will begin to assume it's former position as a dear asset.

For those who want some facts, instead of BS: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cassini/rtg/

Real time indeces: http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/indext.html?source=core/dbc

Gold up $2? Dow up 104? What's going on here?

Finally, the late Carl Sagan on Cassini's plutonium risk: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cassini/rtg/saganframes.htm

Spud Master ( Russia ) : I realize you are being facetious but there is still a world of difference between being criminal in content and criminal in fact. It's the difference between a Bill Clinton and a John Gotty ( sp? ) . The former is criminal in the service of other business. For the latter, criminality is the business.

Following article highlights leading Aussie news. A Senator attempts suicide following damaging Travel Rorts. Many members of Parliament implicated in some way due to the system. Pity a few more would do the same. Have a big list of suggested Members we would not miss.
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971004/pageone/pageone1.html
Seriously, this is tragic, however it was interesting to note Senator Sherry added in his attempted suicide note "please do something about the administration of that silly superannuation tax". Having worked on it for 12 months now, & almost given up, that issue in Australia would drive you to suicide.

Just checked the gold and silver prices. I've got one thing to say. Ride 'em cowboy.

Shek ( IEEE/Problems ) : Reading your post, it occurred to me that a major factor in y2k and related problems is a result of making machines conform to a human ( irrational ) form of keeping time. Perhaps it's time to develop a software/machine friendly system of keeping time that cannot be confused with other parts of the system. ...... As an added benefit, it would be one more step in the process of forcing people to think like machines. A grand evolutionary step. Like the discovery of fire. ... :- )

Earl, there is no difference at all: the mobster/mafia kills outright will bullets, the politicians kill will corrupt behaviour & corrupt laws and tax codes. Is there a difference? Dead is dead last time I checked. Well, yes, there is a difference - the Mafia is at least *honest* about being what they are. They don't pretend to be anything but what they are. And anyway, after their "business" grows up & they become "respectable", they do become politicans - or at least their offspring. Can you name any famous Mass. familes in politics & the origin of their illegal wiskey-running businesses? And what about the drug cartels in Columbia? My, they are practically the government there - are they running Columbia any worse than the corrupt rich old families that ran it before? Who cares that they sell poison to idiot Americans. Alcohol kills more Americans than cocaine, but the American wiskey makers are "proper businessmen". If cocaine were legalized, would the Columbian drug-cartel-mafia suddenly be welcome by you with open arms too - suddenly converted from thug-gangsters into pillars of their community and thence to political glory? Poor Al Capone - he just didn't realize or have enough time to make the switch. Although he did dress well. Maybe with modern marketing he could have found his proper place amoung the honourable members of Congress. Or even the Presidency.

EXCUDSE ME! metals trading closed on COMEX because of phone problems. Come on now. CNBC noted this with no follow up. Anyone know more about this?

Panda ( CNN ) : What a sad commentary on our times. That one story is, without doubt, destined for the serious footnote section, in the last chapter of our history. What miserably disconnected wretches our journalists have become. They have forsaken their exalted position as iconoclasts and become nothing more sycophants. Lap dogs seated upon a empty suit.

Since my last post, I have been unable to get any information from kitco. Comex still not trading as best I can tell and no one seems to take note of it. Just before it went off line quote.com showed at 10:39.52 showed a ask of 340.6 when a block at 335.5 just went through. The last trade they show was 335.5 at 10:40:22. Presently 11:54:25. I thinks something is up.

Earl, Well said on journalists. Never has there been so much babel and so little information. The history books will marvel at the irony of this being called the information age.

Sorry to keep mentioning this BUT how often do they stop trading on comex.

Date: Fri Oct 03 1997 11:30
Dundee ( Dundee007@aol.com>Dundee007@aol.com ) ID#216107:
EXCUDSE ME! metals trading closed on COMEX because of phone problems. Come on now.
CNBC noted this with no follow up. Anyone know more about this?



Date: Fri Oct 03 1997 11:54
Dundee ( Dundee007@aol.com ) ID#216107:
Since my last post, I have been unable to get any information from kitco. Comex still not trading as
best I can tell and no one seems to take note of it. Just before it went off line quote.com showed at
10:39.52 showed a ask of 340.6 when a block at 335.5 just went through. The last trade they
show was 335.5 at 10:40:22. Presently 11:54:25. I thinks something is up.


Any responses?

Nick
Thanks for both sites. I previously used the dicksons site, but found them
to be off ( a day behind as I remember ) . The asx site is JUST what I
was looking for!!

http://www.dicksons.com.au/daily.htm
http://www.asx.com.au/

HELLLLLllllllllLOoooooooo! HEllllllllllllllllllllllLooooooooooooooo!

Where is everyone? HELLLLLLLLLLlllllllllllllllllllllloooooooooooooooo!

Well, I seem to see a few messages posted today - none interested in the comex closing.

Dundee: Forgive my ignorance ( I'm somewhat new to the stock market ) , but what symbol are you using at quote.com to follow the COMEX gold futures? I assume your following the futures, correct me if I'm wrong.

First, thanks for responding John.

GC7Z gives gold on quote.com.

Silver seems to be moving strongly kito shows up .10 12:29

Well it is showing that it is up and running now. 12:07:33 gold up 335.8.

Interesting to me at least. Thanks again, for replying John. I thought I was lost in cyberspace.

Dundee: Thanks for the info. I've seen that symbol flying around here before, NOW I know what it stands for.

you must have seen SEINFELD last night.

aurator: what is "SOS" as pertaining to Army usage?

Rueters news story on Comex phone outage;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/03/y0023_z00_19.html

Well Carl, it will be very interesting if you made the call of the week

Date: Fri Oct 03 1997 10:11
Carl ( @home ) ID#333131:
Just suppose the Dow should reverse today and finish lower. Is there any good news left that it
hasn't discounted? It's a long way down from here.

Silver leading strongly -- a very good sign. Comex closing for a hour + a very good sign.

Extinguish all smokes....she's about to blow.

Hey Ted:
The Can$ is up 12 ticks and over .7300's. WOW! I think we got a BIG rally workin' here ;-^ ) ( whinky-smiley-tongue-in-cheek-thingy ) ...oh MY!

away...to .8000?!?
EB$

Just testing to see my number.



ttfn

Earl:

Do you have any idea why the "stuff" went up while the DOW went down? It seemed to be lock-stepped this morning ....

Thanks
 
 
 ttfn
Front....

COMEX: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/03/y0023_z00_19.html

Metals: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/01/y0023_z00_6.html

The Dow and the long bond have lost much of their gains, but the yellow still is very strong. Further evidence that a BRAND NEW PARADIGM is developing for the PMs. Even when the Dow was up 110 points this morning, gold was up a bit as well. A few weeks ago gold would have tanked badly if stocks and bonds had soared.

XAU up nicely today, but low volume suggests we will pull back again before the next leg of this golden bull develops. It is OUR turn to buy the dips.

LME: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/03/y0023_z00_12.html

Front: Shamefacedly, I admit to not having a clue. Sheller's stars is the best explanation, I guess. ..... "When the moon is in the second house and Jupiter aligns with Mars ... etc"...... or GSC did a little bottom fishing? ( grin thing )

US to enforce NO FLY ZONE over Iraq.
http://search.main.yahoo.com/search/news?p=no+fly+zone

Donald-
Right before the Kitco Crash, you made reference to how gold's rally followed some action by BIS ( ? ) or some group to increase credits of some sort. If you remember the comment, could you please elaborate? Obviously the topic is unfamiliar to me, or I would be more specific.

Dollar Slips Vs. Mark as U.S. Jobs Report Shows Tame Inflation

The dollar slipped against the German mark after the U.S. September employment report pointed
to steady economic growth with little inflation, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may
put off raising interest rates until next year. Those heightened expectations, combined with persistent
concern that Germany may lift its borrowing rates, caused the dollar fall, analysts said. Lower U.S.
interest rates tend to discourage investors from buying dollars.

More LME: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/03/y0023_z00_9.html

Silver: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/02/dtbky_z00_1.html

Bad URL.
"The Nimitz was scheduled to go to the Persian Gulf, with a port call in Singapore. The port call was canceled and it will arrive four or five days early," he said.

"There has been activity in the Persian Gulf area," Bridges added, referring to Iranian air raids on the bases in Iraq of an Iranian opposition group. Asked if this was the reason, he
said: "It's reasonable to assume that."

The Iranian planes struck this week inside the no-fly zone imposed by the United States and its allies in southern Iraq. The United States then told Iran its aircraft were in danger of being shot down if they violated the zone again.

Bridges said the United States had no aircraft carrier in the Gulf at the moment and he did not know when the last carrier left. As usual, the Nimitz will travel at the head of a carrier task force of several ships.

A brief glimpse -- a promising rise in gold and silver. If the stock market rallies without dampening this, we are on our way!

New messages on top again!!!

WSF: Changes! IMF proposal to double these SDR's. Subject to vote of member nations.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/sup0996/10sdr.htm

For Nick - 3 cheers for vegemite

For all -

Many are waiting to see the "red ink bleeding" from
the RSA mines - Gee
JCI quarterlies out for last quarter when gold
must have averaged 330$. Results follow.

Joel 8.7 profit cents per share vs 13.4 last quarter.
Randfontein 50.4 cents profit vs loss of 27.1 cents
last quarter
Western Areas profit of 1.28 rands versus loss of 14
cents last quarter.

If anyone asks, I'll tell you about a mine that has
13 times the reserves per share that Barrick has.
It earns almost 3 times as much per share as Barrick.
It Costs 1/3 as much as Barrick.

But I wont tell you unless you ask me.

!

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/sup0996/10sdr.htm

I wonder if the stock bulls are beginning to feel like there's a conspiracy to keep the Dow below 8000. ( :+ )

Donald, Thanks for the articles on the new accounting rules. I don't completely understand the significance, but it must be a problem to involve Greenspan.

EBN gold up 3.10! Happy days are here again ;- ) George C. I think you are right, it will just happen without a major eruption. OR - IS THE MIDDLE EAST ABOUT TO BLOW UP. NIMITZ AIRCRAFT CARRIER ON WAY TO GULF. POST HASTE!

John Disney: Tell us John, the suspense is killing me. It's about time the world recognised our giveaways. I am a Joel shareholder amongst others and can't believe that it hasn't broken out yet - Unit trusts liquidating perhaps. Your thoughts please.

Well Carl, I looks like you have made the call of the week -- WOW!

Date: Fri Oct 03 1997 10:11
Carl ( @home ) ID#333131:
Just suppose the Dow should reverse today and finish lower. Is there any good news left that it
hasn't discounted? It's a long way down from here.

While admitting to a minor case of senile dementia, the order of posts becomes more confusing by the minute. ...... I vote for yesterday's/this morning's protocol. Newest at the bottom.

Donald: Recognizing you as a very astute poster here the SDR info is very interesting. Is this the next step after the ECU? Wendal Wilkie was way ahead of his time, wasn't he?

NEIL COLLETT: Could you possibly be the Law Man I hear on the Radio??? In Jo-burg? ;- )

New messages on the top -GREAT!

A web site is telling me the Dow is down 14!! Someone please confirm!!

The S&P down 1.31 for the day? What happened? Hey, get this--Dow down 32.91! Eat that one bullies!

I see off 40 on my check. Is something happening?

Very interesting the impact on oil prices, crb today. A little trouble in the middle east use not to ruffle the market like this.

Oil up over a $1 so far.

Goldbug 23: Afraid not. I make money the hard way!

Dow down 55.75--freefall baby!

Neil, hard money will overcome. ;- )

Dow down 55!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dow down 6852--she's tanking fast!

Dow off 69 - What is going on?

Goldbug23: Looks like this could be the one!

Dow down 68.52--she's tanking fast!

GB23: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/02/z0000_32.html

Sharp drop in US caused this one........very interesting. Bonds down, stocks down. What's left?? I wonder........

Dow down 21 + climbing.....

Fed must have stepped in.

( 21.4B x 1.365 = 29.211 billion )
9.The Committee welcomed the agreement reached by the Executive Board on an amendment
of the Articles to provide all members with an equitable share of cumulative SDR allocations
through a special one-time SDR allocation amounting to SDR 21.4 billion, which will double
the amount of SDRs already allocated. Accordingly, it recommends the adoption by the
Board of Governors of the proposed Resolution.

Earl,

I checked three of the BIG books and it's not there.
Can you please suggest the root of " Shamefacedly " ...
Is it an Adjective, Adverb, or just a plain old Verb ?

BTW, I now Know why ! ( and I'm not tellin'! )

TTFN

I wonder what stock short positions look like? If there isn't much short interest who will buy the next big dip??

Dow still down 16. See if it flies up or down the last half hour.

EB: I just got your e-mail and I must say I am very disappointed with you and your BAD attitude and I wish you would listen to my advice and short stocks and go long gold as this is how I made my riches over the past 15 years. Will you ever learn?? I am really beginning to wonder!

14:51 should have read sharp drop in US bonds caused this one. I'm getting rather excited here.

Newest posts back on top! Great!

And charts appear to be back! So I'll post the channel chart I discussed yesterday. I set the channel widths for gold and silver equal to the channel widths when they were both in downward trends. These new channels, at least for the time being, seem to be valid.

CRB zoomed past 245 to 246.68 led by oil futures ( up by1.18 to $22.95 ) .

Off to see The Edge while the theaters are empty. I'll check in later on how they closed. Think OIL!

Western World plunges into darkness as DOW CRASHES ( down 5 ) ....

NEW YORK, Oct 2 ( Reuter ) - U.S. M-2 money supply rose $9.1 billion in the September 22 week to $3,992.9 billion, the
Federal Reserve said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/02/y0004_z00_16.html

TED must be some sunset up there

Nervous about bank savings accounts, Vietnamese people have traditionally stashed gold under mattresses -- one semi-official
newspaper last year estimated that some $10 billion worth of gold was stored in this way.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/03/y0004_z00_20.html

Iranians block nuke site inspections.
http://web3.stlnet.com/postnet/News/wires.nsf/Bulletins/42FA6FBA441EB91B8625652400686E40

Greek Cauliflower and Bulgar Pilaf on the menu....XAU up 1.73...

Troops: http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971003/international/stories/turkey_2.html

Front: Adverb. Page 2086 of the Webster's unabridged. ..... Still clueless on the original question. ..... Given oil and CRB, maybe the land of the camels is about to go interesting again.

Hi Aurator!!! Sunset is @ 6:37 ( Atlantic ) so still have another 1 hour and 50 minutes till sunset....

"50 Pak soldiers killed" - report on India-Pakistan border clash at
http://www.genius.net/indolink/INDNews/DNUmain/mainCrnt.html

Shamefaced. Modest. Corruption of M.E Shamefast modest= Anglo Saxon scamfaest, lit. firm in shame, i.e. in modesty, Anglo Saxon scamu, shame, modesty; faest, fst, firm.

etymology today


click.

John Disney- I am on my knees begging to know which stock?????

Tally Ho

THREE CHEERS FOR BART AT KITCO
THREE CHEERS FOR BART AT KITCO
THREE CHEERS FOR BART AT KITCO
( For he's a jolly good fellow ...... )

BILLD I'll drink to that

Clink!

Ray, John Disney Oryx is it? as in our nitetimeposter ( Auric ) with a sore throat.

It seems that the boys on Wall and LaSalle Streets decided to wait for
Monday and the new DowJones Index and options to start trading. The
crash has been postponed. It seems kind of strange that the key reversal
in the bonds and dow would halt so quickly and turn back up. I tend to agree
with a previous poster that the Fed had something to do with the decline
terminating so quickly and reversing back up. Any thoughts anybody?

Page 2086 ..... !!
My dictionary only goes to page 88 , Guess it's because all the pictures take up all the room !!
( One of those funny whinky thingies! )
TTFN

Friday, October 3, 1997
Canada sells no gold in September

OTTAWA, Oct 3 ( Reuter ) -- Canada sold no gold in September, the Finance Department said on Friday.

Its holdings remained at 3.1 million ounces as of September 30, the department said.  The Canadian government has a policy of gradually selling off its gold reserves and replacing them with interest-bearing assets.

SE Asia metals "flat on their back"
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/03/y0023_z00_1.html

$ hit http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/10/03/financial_news/money_4.html

May the remarkable individuals who frequent this fine site enjoy the weekend.

Wednesday, October 1, 1997
Canadians still going bust in record numbers

By AL TOULIN
Ottawa Bureau Chief The Financial Post
OTTAWA - The number of individuals and businesses declaring bankruptcy declined in July, but not enough to halt this year's record-setting pace for financial failures.
Industry Canada reported 6,868 individuals and 998 business filed for bankruptcy in July, down slightly from June's total of 8,072.
However, the cumulative rate of bankruptcy continues to lead last-year's record setting pace.

For the first half of 1997 there were 58,817 bankruptcies, compared with 54,281 during the same period last year.

aurator- is it is Oryx I would be disappointed. I have had no one say anything good about Oryx, maybe a contrary indicator but I think not.

Where is Polarbear? If you are out there please leave me an e-mail because I lost a batch of addresses and yours was one of then.

Captain Bill Buckler- I want you to know how much I appreciate your analysis, so much I waited for your BUY signal for my remaining share purchases. Thanks!

It's gona be a goood year.

Tally Ho

Greeting good folks on Kitco. I am a bit leery to join the ongoing discussion. There I go away for a few days and gold shoots up ( what happened to 3-2-5 ?;- ) I hope that me coming back won't spoil the party. Unfortunately, I was having too good time, did not check the markets and by doing so missed 10% increase in gold funds : - ( . Hope that it will continue now when I've put more money in. Go gold go! Bart, thanks for fixing the problem with Kitco - I was having withdrawal symptoms!

David Mccrory- thanks to you for beating the BUY drum all the way to the move. You really did hit it on the head. Thanks!

This is a good day, my baby is home from college this weekend- he is 6'2"
and 275lbs of tough defensive tackle, they have an off week.

Tally Ho

gee, those good folks at CNBC have nothing nice to say about ol' goldie. Not enough good words for bawnz n' stalks though. Come on Ron, Maria and ole man Rogers, at least give us a little nudge and a wink.

Acclaimed Compuserve Gold & Silver King has returned from the North Woods to share his considerable wisdom. He's found a pure silver play worth watching:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug903.html

EB -- Yup, I was drinking some beer! However, it did not seem to make any difference to the corn today. However, I was wrong in saying that it 'may be a couple days yet'. Ah well! I've also said to be watching the grains closely. I do see a 'sign' on Dec wheat which may bring a one-two day correction on probably Tuesday. That's about it though. Given that corn moved just ahead of what I thought, I'll have to examine it more closely for 'break-points' before Monday. And beans will simply be beans. OJ, IMHO, is PRIMED! I wouldn't be a bit surprised if it REALLY came out of the gate Monday AM! Silver is leading the way again! ALRIGHT! Any more plusses and it should easily see numbers Monday not seen in quite sometime! Gold should be on its heels. It seem to have successfully negotiated what I deem to be a critical Dec 336 area! Next brief stop will again be 338 & 340+ area. Simply watch silver for failure to negotiate the previous high properly, and gold to fail dec 336 support. Should they do so, then it'll be another test elsewheres. Crude, well that speaks for itself anymore! It had busted a major area and is now in cruise mode for a bit. As I said before though, it has a large affect on the economy and may be 'unwilling' to move a great deal. Find some numbers and allow it to play for you above those. I think some of this cash hanging out there is finding its way into the physical markets. Be aware!

BBL. Too quiet here, not that I blame anybody after what appears to be a successful week. Time to go out to dinner. You All enjoy!

October 3, 1997
Oil, gold lead commodities up on Mideast tensions

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - Oil prices soared to the highest level in eight months on Friday after the United States sent an aircraft carrier to the Mideast Gulf to halt Iranian attacks inside Iraq and enforce Gulf War no-fly rules.

Gold, silver, grains and soybeans all closed higher as speculators and investment funds bought on the international tensions and fueled already active buying due to tight supplies or strong demand from processors.

Precious metals, traditionally an investor haven in times of crisis, rose strongly. Gold for December delivery at the COMEX in New York closed $3.40 higher at $336.90 an ounce. December silver jumped 13.3 cents to end at $5.303 an ounce. Gold prices fell to 12-year lows around $315 in July but have risen as the fourth quarter is seasonally a period of higher global gold demand due to Hindu festivals and Western end-of-year holidays.

But producers, especially Australian gold miners, remain sellers of gold in the current rally, analysts said.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/COMMODITIES.html

GENERAL: SOS is Sh*t on a Shingle. Creamed Chipped Beef on Toast. Now give me Ten troop!

October 3, 1997
Key U.S. Republican unveils fast-track plan Monday

WASHINGTON, Oct 3 ( Reuter ) - U.S. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Archer announced Friday he would unveil his "fast-track""trade legislation proposal Monday at 2 p.m. EDT ( 1800 GMT ) .

House Speaker Newt Gingrich on Tuesday said the trade bill was in trouble in the House and that President Clinton needed to work harder to win support from his own Democrats. Labor unions oppose the trade authority bill and have launched a television advertising campaign against it.

But a pro-trade business group said on Friday it was launching a radio advertising campaign in key congressional districts to try to build more public support for the fast-track trade bill. The group, known as America Leads on Trade, said the ads will air in 13 media markets.

Last week the Senate Finance Committee passed a compromise bill that won support of both Republicans and Democrats on the committee.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/KEY-US-REPUBLICAN-U.html

Donald: I wish I were at home scanning the net. The world of Kitco is quiet compared to my ( work ) world. One of the senior people I work with is dangerously close to the edge.
Regarding your 14:56 post about SDR's -- how many total US dollars does that come to for all members of the IMF? Is this separate from the central bank reserve requirements? Ie how much does the American taxpayer have to pay?

Mike Sheller: Ya done forgot son. SOS is a culinary delight reserved only for the enlisted ranks.

EB: Watch your step dude!

Dow/Gold Ratio 24.02 ounces of gold to buy one share of each of the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This index will be impacted in some fashion by the options trading that starts Monday. Any insights will be appreciated.

XAU/Gold Ratio .325 ( ounces of gold to purchase 1 share of each of the stocks that make up the Philadelphia Silver and Gold Index )

CORRECTION: XAU/Gold Ratio .325 ( Ounces of gold to purchase 1 unit of the XAU, Not 1 share of each component stock )

G'day Gastronomer, always talking about food that Mr Sheller.

Down on the Fourth Estate

Once a newspaper touches a story, the facts are lost forever, even to the protagonists

Norman Mailer


An editor is someone who separates the wheat from the chaff and prints the chaff.

Adlai Stevenson



Journalism consists of buying white paper at two cents a pound and selling it for ten cents a pound.

Cyril Connelly

Whoaaaaaaaaa Spudsterrrr!!!!!!!!! Holster them rayguns pardner!!'n switch off that jet pack! Badger's bout as liberal as a Idaho Republican in an election year! Some time back we were discussing the CA law which said Police'n Firefighters can be fired for smok'in and what a terrible infringment it is on our personal rights so it seems odd to me that the US can arbitrarily take BIG risks with worldwide lives just on their own meritus studies! This is risky, all else aside, look at challenger, the number of shuttle launches, their similarity to all other solid rocket launches, and use weekend football maker's figures to make the odds! this ain't rocket science!

Look at my 10:09'n the post aside, do go to the bottom of the page'n pick up the "calender URL" I posted! This cat's your cup-a-T! ( I think )

compliments & regards
badger

Forecasts for dollar, mark, bonds, yen and Dow.
http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/hanseatic.shtml

Earl: re- your 11am post. What I was referring to was the short-term correlation of dropping commodity prices and gold stock prices, because of the deflationary implication. Were you referring to the fact that gold will eventually again become a valued asset once trust in paper assets is lost? As I recall there are several occasions in market history where collapses in commodity index prices preceeded a market crash. Eg, 1929 in the US. I don't remember the precise years in the twenties before the great depression when commodity prices fell. Years later we had the 1929 crash, the market fell, and gold stocks started to move. I think this is what you are referring to. However, during that period of commodity price collapse it may not be wise to own gold stocks. One must wait for the moment of gold stock recovery.
My guess is that the gold stock rally is not just flight to safety, but because during periods of deflation the fixed costs of mining gold drop dramatically, eventually leading to improved profit margins.
Perhaps there are some gold bugs who can describe better that I the benefical effect of deflation on gold.

http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/hanseatic.shtml

TO EB
Dont listen to George Steinbrenner.
do your own stuff, mate. Short gold if u wish.

TO vronsky
Thankx for that pure silver play link.

JTF
The table posted here
Date: Wed Apr 30 1997 23:34 aurator ( jesthefaxmon ) :
Perhaps someone can repost,;- )

TO Charlie Manson
Get back to where u belong. the cell.

JTF: IMF/SDR I am not sure I know the answer. It seems that SDR's are the equivalent of currency, the Monetary Base of the World organization. In the first SDR post there was a list of countries and conversion rates. As they do everything in dollars we could be allowing the IMF to print currency the same as the Fed does. As this is reserve currency it must be subject to the multiplier as well. I need to learn more about the way it works. They started out calling SDR's "Paper Gold" and made a big deal about promising that what is about to happen would never happen.

Look at DONALD and 6pak. Probably never met a link
they didn't like. GO GO GO. good work.

http://www.wavefront.com/~Contra_M/antithesis/v1n6/ant_v1n6_monetary.html

Donald Thanks
That IMF story filed under

They're plugging the Dyke where??

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs\ft\usrgsdr\usersa03.htm

Aurator: Is an NZ Dyke like a US Dyke?

Donald, I'm afraid to answer that on the grounds i might be misconstruated!
I was talking Dutch things near windmills and probably spult wrung.

Recently, newspapers in major cities around the world published the names of holders of Swiss
bank accounts inactive since World War II.

This was part of the Swiss government's effort to restore its reputation for its role as bankers of the
Nazis' laundered money and holders of deposits fleeing the Nazis that the Swiss have not returned
to their owners or heirs.

The names on the list evoked that dull, inescapable ache that comes particularly to Jews of
European origin, at the sound of the bell tolling. "Goldstein, Berek - Warsaw; Levy, Klara -
Dantzig; Halff, Robert and Andre and Bertrand and Bruno and Liliane and Marie-Claire - Paris."

I wonder, how did Berek Goldstein get the family's money into Switzerland? Did any of the Halffs
survive? What did they know at the end? There go I, but for the luck of being born in Britain. There
went my grandmother's family and cousins I never knew.

But the hostility to Switzerland and the moral opprobrium we are now dishing out to that country
has problematic aspects. At the very least, it is an exercise in moral relativism, and surely to
heavens, that insult to tyranny's victims must stop.

The background is clear. The Germans had some gold, but were scrambling for cash, war being
expensive. They could only sell gold to neutral countries, which meant Switzerland, Portugal, and
Sweden. Some of that gold belonged to the German Reich, some of it was looted from countries
the Germans occupied and some expropriated, largely from Jews in both Germany and occupied
countries.

Unfortunately when such terrifying practices as extracting gold from teeth, possibly of Robert Halff
and his family, were in full swing, the Germans did not mark the resulting gold bars with their awful
provenance.

I don't doubt that the Swiss were unaware of the details of the Holocaust and knew as little as
anyone else about the death camps.

On the other hand, anyone dealing with the Nazis during that period would have known that some
of their money was looted, just as anyone dealing with Al Capone would have known that all his
bank deposits were not legitimately acquired.

In that sense the Swiss put themselves in the position of potential receivers of stolen goods, much as
one does when tapped on the shoulder and "Psst...," offered a brand-new Chanel outfit or genuine
Rolex watch for half price. The question then becomes, should the Swiss have dealt with the Nazis
at all?

Every country that wishes to stay neutral in a belligerent or morally reprehensive situation faces this
question.

Switzerland was surrounded by countries under German occupation. Those of us far away from
conflicts or nasty regimes can simply stick our tongues out at them. Once in a while, we restrict
trade or decide not to sell some technology or arms, but on the whole we prefer not to know too
much.

Has Canada stopped selling wheat to China after its extermination of hundreds of thousands of
Tibetans? The contintent of Africa has been awash in blood for 50 years, while the West traded and
subsidized its murderers.

Probably only Stalin can rival Hitler for murderous brutality, but no moral precepts stopped the
West from dealing with Stalin when he exiled and murdered the Volga Germans or the Don
Cossacks. When we sold wheat to the Soviet Union on credit, we never attempted to work out
what portion of repayment came from the property of Gulag inhabitants.

Canada has now established a probe, headed by a Carleton University "financial historian" into our
role in laundering Nazi gold. Our Bank of Canada might have swapped some dirty Portuguese gold
for nice, clean Canadian gold. Even as this inquiry goes on, Canada not only trades with Cuba but
positively juts out its chin with pride at dealing in property looted from Americans. Castro is no
Hitler, but Fidel's concentration camps are no joy, either.

Banking laws vary. After 10 years of inactivity, a Swiss account is declared dormant until the
depositor or heirs reactivate it. In Canada, Israel, or America, the state grabs dormant accounts.

The Swiss would have been better off to have established a fund for Holocaust victims long ago
from such dormant accounts. But are the Swiss really so different from anyone else?

The key to all this is that most people try to do business as usual. They don't feel duty-bound to
determine whether or not a garment was made by child labor in the Philippines or in India.

I'll bet that between 1946 and 1948 one could find a number of people in Central and Eastern
Europe who, sensing an Iron Curtain descending, put their money into banks in the free West.
Some of them were able to squeeze under that descending curtain and follow their money. But
many more were trapped, and ended up in gulags. Who cares a fig about their dormant accounts?

None of this is right, and I'm not trying to whitewash the Swiss, only to say they are no different
from anyone else.

* Barbara Amiel is a columnist for Maclean's, the Canadian weekly newsmagazine from which this
article was excerpted.

ALL,
Look liked many"BIG MAN" around south east asia going to step down very very soon! DR MICKEY from MAL is the first,rumours blow within this two weeks.2 nd go for" SAWATDEEKARP MAN"from Thailand,third should belongs no other than mr .RAMOS FROM PHILIPINES!This area ( S.E.ASIA ) SOON CHANGE TO ALL NEW BLOOD,NEW AGE AND THE IMPACT WILL TURN AROND IN FUTURE!What a BULL YEAR ...........happy trading.
p/s still stock up my physical,run out of currency,citizen lost confidence now......economy badly hurt.....TERRIBLE!

http://www.webpage.com:80/hindu/daily/970927/04/04272232.htm

Capital
volume 1
by Karl Marx
Chapter 3: Money, or the Circulation of Commodities

1. The Measure of Values

Throughout this work, I assume, for the sake of simplicity, gold as the money commodity. The first chief function of money is to supply commodities with the material for the expression of their values, or to
represent their values as magnitudes of the same denomination, qualitatively equal, and quantitatively comparable. It thus serves as a universal measure of value. And only by virtue of this function does gold, the equivalent commodity par excellence, become money.

c. Universal Money

When money leaves the home sphere of circulation, it strips off the local vesture of a standard of prices, of coin, of tokens, and of a symbol of value, and returns to its original form of bullion. In the trade between the markets of the world, the value of commodities is expressed so as to be universally recognized. Hence their independent value form also, in these cases, confronts them under the shape of universal money. It is
only in the markets of the world that money acquires to the full extent the character of the commodity whose bodily form is also the immediate social incarnation of human labour in the abstract.

Its real mode of existence in the sphere adequately corresponds
to its ideal concept. Within the sphere of home circulation, there can be but one commodity which, by serving as a measure of value, becomes money.
In the markets of the world a double measure of value holds sway,
gold and silver. ( 62* )

Just as every country needs a reserve of money for its home circulation, so, too, it requires one for external circulation in the markets of the world. ( 65* ) The functions of hoards, therefore, arise in part out of the function of money, as the medium of the home circulation and home payments, and in part out of its function as money of the world. For this latter function, the genuine money commodity, actual gold and silver, is
necessary. On that account, Sir James Steuart, in order to distinguish them from their purely local substitutes, calls gold and silver "money of the world."
http://www.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/marx/cap1/chap03

Mikey: Take a hike twerp!

http://www.businessweek.com:80/1997/41/b3548171.htm

http://www.businessweek.com:80/1997/41/b3548166.htm

Mikey: Buzz off buddy!

http://www.businessweek.com:80/1997/41/b3548100.htm

Internationally acclaimed Technical Analyst has performed another insightful study destined to be called "THE Homestake Mining Prophecy." His analysis exudes incisive thinking, and is expressed with great clarity:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/fisher1001.html

http://www.businessweek.com:80/1997/41/b3548126.htm

Capital, Volume One
by Karl Marx
Part Two: The Transformation of Money into Capital

Chapter IV. The General Formula for Capital

The circulation of commodities is the starting point of capital. The production of commodities, their circulation, and that more developed form of their circulation called commerce, these form the historical groundwork from which it rises. The modern history of capital dates from the creation in the sixteenth century of a world-embracing commerce and a
world-embracing market.

Use-values must therefore never be looked upon as a real aim of the capitalist; ( 7* ) neither must the profit on any single transaction. The restless never-ending process of profit-making alone is what he aims at. ( 8* ) This boundless greed after riches, this passionate chase after exchange value, ( 9* ) is common to the capitalist and the miser; but while the miser is merely a capitalist gone mad, the capitalist is a rational miser. The never-ending augmentation of exchange value, which the miser strives after by seeking to save ( 10* ) his money from circulation, is attained by the more acute capitalist by constantly throwing it afresh into circulation. ( 11* )
http://www.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/marx/cap1/chap04

In tinkering with troubled economies, keep a close eye on
the banks


THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND and the World Bank couldn't have
picked a better place for their annual meeting than Hong Kong, or a better time. East Asia is in the
grip of currency turmoil which is battering stock markets and political egos. Blame is going to
Thailand's devaluation in July and Malaysia's misguided moves last month to stabilize its stock
market by restricting trading. Economists have already slashed growth forecasts for Malaysia,
Indonesia and the Philippines. And they say Thailand may be headed for a recession.

Clearly, getting Southeast Asia back on a sustainable growth track and addressing the past boom's
excesses deserve top priority. But there is something more fundamental at stake: financial integrity.
Over the past month, bank runs hit Thailand as well as the Philippines. Bangkok's decision to
suspend 58 finance companies, part of its policy commitments under the $17.2-billion IMF rescue
plan, triggered a flood of cash from smaller to bigger banks, often to foreign ones. Even viable
ventures are having trouble getting credit; some Thais are finding it hard to pay by check. Hardly
helpful in building confidence is a Sept. 15 report that the IMF may withhold its bailout if Bangkok
fails to comply with the program's stipulations.

One can only hope that Thailand's economic managers and the people putting the squeeze on them
don't forget financial stability. Plainly, if harsh economic adjustments lead to bank runs and failures,
then there may not be any economy left to adjust. News of such a debacle will make depositors
elsewhere in Asia even more jittery, and bank runs more likely. Capital will stay away or flee,
compounding the liquidity crunch. Against such panic, even financially sound, well-run institutions
would have little defense.

So it is imperative that the integrity of the region's banks be maintained. How? Thailand has been
working to restore confidence in its financial system, whose loans crisis triggered the first speculative
attacks on Southeast Asian currencies early this year. Last week, the Thai Bankers Association
condemned a bank-rating analyst's remark that some bank failures were likely. More important, the
bankers pledged that funds of depositors and creditors would be given "utmost protection" by the
country's banks and central bank.

Thailand must also take steps to shore up the capital of troubled institutions. A good one has been
to open up domestic banks and finance companies to foreign ownership and control. And for
tottering lenders unable to attract rescuers, Bangkok may need to set up an entity to absorb dud
assets, along the lines of Japan's Resolution and Collection Bank. The World Bank has offered
technical assistance for Thai financial reform; it may also have to provide a structural adjustment
loan to cover the cost of restructuring lenders and paying their depositors. The global financial
community, for its part, should consider the need for debt rescheduling, to give Thailand and its
banks time to recover from the current crunch.

In the long term, there is need for broad financial reform. In particular, Asian banks need a more
transparent system which gives regulators earlier notice of potential problems like excessive
exposure to property lending. But first things first: let's ensure the banks will still be around to be
reformed.

JTF: I was alluding to THE major difference between the present era and those that preceded it. That major difference is public and private debt. It has always seemed to me to be somewhat ludicrous to compare market situations and outcomes without factoring in the gigantic change in relative position between now and then.

In the runup to 1929, the US was essentially debt free and in command of, continentally contained, natural resources the rest of the world could only dream about. That position, in both respects, has been dissipated. We were in a commanding position in every respect. Now we are not.

In terms of debt, even 1987 was not as bad as it is now. My point is that when the world begins to recognize that US debt service is a problematic affair, the rush for "real money" will be on. Severe deflation is just the ticket needed to encourage such an event. ..... Any consideration and comparison of era's, without a concomittant recognition of relative financial position is missing an essential element. IMO.

http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-10/03/070l-100397-idx.html

October 3, 1997
Orange County bankruptcy player gets prison sentence

SANTA ANA, Calif. ( Reuter ) - Former Orange County, California Assistant Treasurer Matthew Raabe was sentenced Friday to three years in prison and was ordered to pay a $10,000 fine for his role in the county's 1994 bankruptcy.

Raabe was found guilty in May of felony charges stemming from the largest municipal bankruptcy in history. A jury of six men and six women covicted Raabe on all five counts, including a charge that he diverted nearly $100 million in public funds from schools, cities and special districts.

California Superior Court Judge Everett Dickey said he was more lenient in sentencing Raabe because the former treasurer did not personally profit from his acts.

"I am filled with regret and sorrow ... I did not initiate the plan but I was responsible for its implementation," Raabe said. "I should have been more diligent."

"Mr. Raabe misappropriated $88,550,000 from schools, cities, water districts and other unsuspecting agencies and gave that money to the county. State prison is the punishment for that crime -- not probation," Anderson told Dickey during Friday's sentencing hearing.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BANKRUPTCY-SENTENCING.html

PLR.V POLAR BEAR VENTURES.Here is a very undervalued company and it will
not remain at present prices very much longer.It has been written up by
a number of Internet writers as one to watch and accumulate at these prices.Here is a recent Press Release from the Company.

OST RECENT QUOTE: $0.23

Polar bear has gained quite a following of late from internet writers such as the Investors Guru. The company is currently producing gold in
California, and the stock appears to be poised for a decent run up soon. We believe that the upside is an easy 50% from current levels while the
downside is minimal.

PRESS RELEASE:

Gold Production has Commenced at the Bully Choop Gold Mine

Polar Bear Ventures Ltd PLR
Shares issued 7,144,126 Sep 30 close $0.22
Wed 1 Oct 97
Mr Glenn Greig reports
Significant progress has been made on our joint venture at the Bully Choop
gold mine in northern California. Production has commenced at the mine
after improvements were made to the milling circuit during September. We
are projecting to run 1,000 tons of ore per month over the coming fall and
winter months. Production levels will increase in the spring. We are
anticipating an average head grade of at least .5 ounces of gold per ton.
The milling circuit is composed of a crushing circuit feeding a ball mill
with concentration by both gravity and froth flotation. Management expects
revenue from free gold recovered in the gravity circuit by the middle of
October. The first truckload of flotation concentrate will be shipped for
processing by the middle of the month. The mine and mill are being prepared
for winter operations and a prefabricated building is being erected over
the mill circuit. We anticipate production throughout the year.
Only a limited portion of the known gold bearing structures have been
tested with drilling. The property contains three veins named the
Occidental, Intermediate and Bully Choop veins. The joint venture's
development work has concentrated on the Occidental vein above the number 2
level. Management believes there is significant potential to increase
resources through exploration of the down dip extensions of all three
structures. An underground drill program is scheduled to begin in November.
Management is continuing to review additional projects in northern
California and other western states. Pictures and further information are
available on our website at www.canvas.com/polarbear/ or contact Colin
Campbell in investor relations at 1-888-822-2209 or 604-801-5441.
( c ) Copyright 1997 Canjex Publishing Ltd. http://www.canada-stockwatch.com

EARL: Correct on all counts, but when does it start? Monday? February? December 31, 1997?

EARL: Correct on all counts, but when does it start? Monday? February? December 31, 1999?

Aurator: At: "Down on the Fourth Estate". Those were good'uns, they were. There is no criticism too harsh for the failings of the 'fourth estate'. ( lower case only ) . ..... They have sold themselves for only the approbation of lesser, very tiny, men. They have sold out their fellows for a dime and change and will be judged harshly in the Big Book of History. .... Much the same as those who read the law. ..... Fat lot of good it will do us in the here and now. ...... Cherokee: Amigo, it is time to email some smoke.

To vronsky
Where is that gold-eagle link? - list of major central banks
with its hoard of gold in ounces. Can't locate it anymore.
If u know what i mean.
Thank you in advance.

Love the recovery in Gold today. The shorts were confident and thought the rally was over, and were caught.
Im seeing some lesser know junior Golds comming back to life and some investor excitement is also apparent.
This looks and feels like the biginnings of a Gold bull.
Of course it could all still reverse in a flash.
Need some more confirmation, but it sure smells right at the moment.

Quite a day. If history is any indicator, the next two to four weeks should be real interesting for the precious metals. Bond market gyrating, hyper sensitivity to Mid-East news, and yet 600+ new 52 week highs with only 4 new lows! WOW!

http://www.rferl.org:80/nca/news/1997/09/N.RU.970929161353.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/10/03/z0010_1.html

Hello All;

Haven't had a chance to post this week, but been watching the markets with a questioning eye . . .

I think gold's surge is a temporary happening, and feel it is still destined to go lower before it goes higher. Lotsa downside remaining. The equity market, on the other hand, looks like it's poised to attain the next level - - 9 or perhaps 10,000.

The most likely scenario IMO will be the announcement of more sales of gold reserves, driving the spot price to depths apparently wanted by "someone . . ." Price performance sure looks manipulated or at least constrained, and this last teaser is simply setting us up for the big fall, which will make someone a LOT of $$ . . . Perhaps primarily on the subsequently violent upside.

Darn, there's that conspiracy stuff again, maybe I read too much stuff here after all !

Great Trading,

9R

This Couer d' Alene web site may be of interest to Silverbugs. Big and small; they have most all. http://www.pennaluna.com

I use to go to avid chat room a lot but haven't been there in about two months. Boy have they gone from being bearish to bullish. This all happening when gold is starting to go up.

Does somebody need an excuse for 'non-existent' inflation? If Boeing is having trouble getting parts in an economy that's 'over producing'...
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971003/business/stories/boeing_3.html
perhaps we need a Mid-East 'situation' to explain it ( oil ) ? Let's face it, we're the big bully on the block and Iraq has been real convenient to beat up on in the past and, future? Let's not forget, there are bad people everywhere.

Donald: Your digging today matches any day I can remember! I am no expert on SDR's but I also recall it was to be the world currency at one time, but failed. What worries me more than SDR reserves, is that there may be a comparable ( 50%? ) increase in all central bank reserves all over the world. Since I think each central bank must have currency reserves in dollars ( 25%? ) , this sounds like A Greenspan must print dollars like mad to keep the central banks of the world liquid. I would guess that this number is in the hundreds of billions. How nice of AG to spend our money for us -- many times the Mexican bailout of 1994. All without asking us!

JTF: "but when does it start?" .... Ah! Therein lies the rub. I was hoping you or Donald would provide us with the answer. May we expect it this weekend? ( grin thing )

JTF -- Perhaps the basic problem is that they are ALL loaned with principle due, PLUS interest. Of course there has to continuously be more of them! And they also seem to have to circulate faster and faster to get the same job done! Ever here of the law of diminishing returns? THIS is a PRIME example! Unfortunately, there is only one way out! No, actually two, but they'll never go for that other one! They'd have to give up their 'power' to do that and place it back in the peoples hands where it really belongs anyway. I think their line of reasoning on that is 'just say no! We'll use the 'results' to further our own goals'. That probably sums it up quite adequately.

Earl: re post 21:29. Your comments on debt are well taken. The fifteen trillion debt our government owes ( entitlements included ) is matched by a similar corporate and personal debt ( I think I got this from "FRED" ) . I think with this economic growth we are having, we are only increasing our personal wealth by 200 billion or so per year. There is no way we can retire our US debt at this rate!
The obvious conclusion is that most americans will have even less resources to fall back on, than even in the thirties! Also, many families lived off the land in the thirties, but have forgotten to do so. A major economic collapse would lead to hard times much worse than we americans have experienced in the past.
For the moment we have Alan Greenspan, who is probably our most able Fed Chief. What will happen when he is no longer around to perform the magic balancing act? -- This will probably get more and more difficult as we move further and further from hard assets.
Everything moves in cycles -- the shift to hard assets will eventually come -- the hard way.

Westley: Maybe the guys 'n gals on Avid have some room to remain bullish. I know that thought is enough to warrant a horse whipping on this channel but ..... all the votes ain't been counted yet. Powerful forces remain in power and they have THEIR hands on the levers. We don't. ..... Over the weekend we will all think about and it and come Monday, when pen meets checkbook, we will all vote quietly.

Hi dude ( grin thing )

Earl -- Re: your 21:29 -- Your last paragraph. Is that to mean that we'll have extreme 'inflation' in the price of gold in the midst of extreme deflationary pressures in all else? Personally, I'd think that the price of gold will have risen to a very large extent before all these deflationary pressures came to being. Otherwise, though demand would be there, the funds to purchase/trade for the metals would not necessarily be there. S.E. Asia might be a current example. The metals that are in private hands at that time WILL be good in trade but I do believe their actual value in trade will be of the more 'historic' values, which also means that they WILL hold their value, regardless of the 'paper cost'. The metals are simply a universal medium of exchange and should always be treated as such. Their value is adjudged worldwide, and that is what makes it universal. And like even good paper, if there isn't enough of it about for proper exchange purposes, people will barter other goods, if they can, for what they need. In the mean time, outside of always having some about for 'emergency' times, playing the swings, which may become very large, can certainly become rewarding, if the purchasing power can be increased!

As much as I don't want to say, having viewed my indicators, I agree with NINER and RJ that this recent gold rally may not go much higher next week and a return below 330 is more likely. The first thing this morning, the bond rate dipped to 6.15, very bad for further advancement in gold, but was detoured by the news of a military crisis in Iran ( so what, let them fight themselves ) . Gold/silver then continued their rallies to new recent highs. However, at the end of the day, the long bond rate finished at 6.29%, down from its daily high, and an indication that the market was discounting the crisis somewhat.

This tells me that Monday, without a shooting war, will be down for gold, only because we are in an overbought state. After a short rest, maybe two weeks, I think it will surge again. As RJ so delicately stated, the little guy ain't in yet, and it takes a little time to wake him up. ( the little guy, not RJ )

For daring souls, some of the smaller gold stocks moved over 40% in the last few days. GSR, 4.25 to 6.18.

Earl: re "when does it start?". I'm preaching to the Choir ( grin thing ) !
I appreciate your thought that I ( or Donald ) might be able to figure out the time of the pending collapse -- that is a tall order for a mere mortal who only glimses the future when he listens to music!
I ( so far ) am only attempting to guess what our AGreenspan is up to, and how excessive the creation of new dollars is -- just to keep the world central banks afloat.
I was meekly hoping that we would have a incognito Tietmeyer or a member of the Austrian school of economics on Kitco to help us out.
Seriously, there is one thing we could do to estimate the time of meltdown -- look at some economic parameter such as the world derivatives trading that is growing exponentially ( ie doubling each year or so ) . I believe we are now at over twenty trillion dollars ( look at 1996 Bank of International Settlements annual report -- free at their web site ) . Since the world governments ( so far ) have not shown much ability to work together, I doubt that this problem will be resolved soon, even after the SEAsia crisis. Perhaps one of us at Kitco might be able to guess how far the trading volume could go -- percent of world GDP,etc? before reality kicks in with a veangeance!
Does anyone on Kitco know of a ( relatively unregulated ) derivatives market that collapsed? Something we could use as a model?

JTF: At the risk of putting too fine a point on it; EXACTLY, EXACTLY, EXACTLY. ..... If the average American would only look seriously at the world he lives in and ask himself one simple question: "What will I do to control and maintain my life when the ( expletive deleted ) hits the fan?" .... we would not be in this predicament to begin with. Some consideration would have to be given to the inevitable cycles of human existence.

Manual skills are non existent in today's world. The average citizen cannot perform elementary everyday tasks. Doesn't want to. Has never had the need to. Hire it out. Call the plumber, "I don't fix no damn toilets". A simple garden? Forget it, we have community rules against chickens and gardens. Everything is provided with the simple expedient of money. Resources have always been available to solve problems. From myriad sources, public and private. The system has worked remarkably well for the whole of our lifetimes. ...... and yet?

As you have clearly stated, our lives have improved at an almost exponential rate and all on the back of an earned growth rate of several percent per year. Is it truly an expression of man's triumph over simple economics or a distortion of reality available to only a select few and due only to their temporarily favorable position in world events? ..... Those of us in western/advanced societies have truly lived in the best of times. It's a mistake of immense proportion to not realize that WORLD economic progress is measured in low single digits. Not double digits. ....and perhaps,it is now the other guy's turn.

Eldorado, why do you think OJ could rocket Monday?

Against my better judgment, knowing the nice thing about freedom of speach, let a person speak long enough so that he may show the world the fool that he is, he being me, shall continue.

I don't know how many different jabber boxes you have here. And your
writing is almost to good to be true, like a play, without an end.
Maybe I shall read a book; "Wealth of Nations" by Adam Smith, to start,
a much better read than "Marx". Maybe then I will have a better understanding of what true wealth is.

Eldo: "the funds to purchase/trade for the metals would not necessarily be there." ... If you're referring to "every man's" ability to achieve his desire to purchase that which is dear; I think that is correct. Just as now, everyman cannot achieve his heart's desire. In times of turmoil, 'everyman' will not be key to the performance of dear assets. 'He' will be highly leveraged in the wrong asset class and unable to find the resources to protect what he thought he had already gained.

We meet here at Kitco on a regular basis in what is, hopefully, not a vain attempt to avoid becoming "Everyman". ..... "Cycles of changes, in this changeless land ..... " ( Ian & Sylvia, from long ago and far away. )

EARL AND JTF.. To interrupt your discussion, I don't think the debt will ever, nor can it be paid off. It is a numbers game, and policians who cry about it are wasting their time. Over the last 100 years, every serious attempt to pay off the debt has resulted in a recession, and today's politicians will not accept a recession.

If you remember 1987, Greenspan was extremely quick to calm the falling market with promises of cash for the banks. In other words, the next financial panic, market slide, etc, will be met with Fed cash and an increase in M1, M2, M3, and M-infinity until there is an equilibrium point. This will induce an inflationary situation, but no depression. I also would expect for all prices to go up as the dollar is devalued slowly, and metals to lead the way, big time. Deflation and civilization collapse will occur only if industry/jobs disappear. Sometime before that happens, the devalued dollar will eliminate the trade deficit and create new jobs in the US as we hunker down. There will be a normal, although extreme, supply/demand situation and we won't just fall off a cliff.

Meanwhile, gold will zoom and we will look back at 3-2-5 like we now look back at $32/oz. All of the financial advisors will then say that they recommended gold back at 330. Perhaps all of the future advisors are on Kitco, now.

Ritch: "Maybe I shall read a book; "Wealth of Nations" by Adam Smith,". .... Tried that. Three times. Expensive hard cover edition. ..... Oft quoted, seldom read. ...... As an alternative, may I suggest "The Virtue of Selfishness" by Ayn Rand. It will so brace your constitution as to ease the burden of reading Saint Smith. .... Obviously there is no shortage of other titles . .... but I have a fondness for Rand. Mostly because she has been so heavily villified by those who would never read her and who would be found unworthy of carrying her notes. .... LIke owning Krands, when they were banned in the US.

Earl -- My take on it is that it 'ain't' particularly universal if at least near everyone has at least enough of it to trade with. Perhaps in time and with his own labors that might become true, but the interim? It certainly won't command higher 'prices' in that scenario just because of what it is. If people with money climb aboard BEFORE the big devaluations, and while they can still afford to do so, then we are most certainly talking MAJOR demand! This is the FEAR that will make it go! But even that won't happen until the latter stages of the runup in gold and the major problems in paper becoming much more universally known and feared. But after the fact? Some, yes, but only relatively small sums.

You CANNOT pay off debt by creating new debt to pay off the old! And if you attempt to pay off the debt with the currency in existence and without ANYMORE borrowing, you'll be out of currency LONG before the debt is paid! Bottom line; GOOD LUCK! So much for your debt-based monetary systems where it is ALL loaned into existence at interest! Its death collapse was written the day it was founded!

Earl, and all: Here is the world OTC derivatives trading volumes, published by the Bank for International Settlements, 67th Annual report.
The following is in billions of US dollars.
Year OTC ( billions )
1987 0?
1989 2,500
1991 5,000
1993 8,000
1995 16,000
1996 25,000

A conservative doubling time is about 2 years. How long before this blows up?

Larryn: "Perhaps all of the future advisors are on Kitco, now." ..... If they are, they're keeping an awful low profile. ...... As for the future course of money supply, prices, M1, M2, M3, or M ( n ) , I confess to not having a clue. .....Of course, the debt will not be paid off. It will implode from whence it came. Nothing. Big Bang in reverse. From finite quantity, to a singularity. ...... The discussion is not whether angels are able to dance upon the head of a pin. Of course they can. The question is, how many at one time and by what mechanism? The end is known. Per BB Fisher, it will end with a whimper; but what is expected between now and the final whimper?

To all: To the derivatives traders out there -- Can one estimate the amount of debt ( or money at risk ) versus assets in the world
derivativesmarket? If we could do this, we could ( crudely ) estimate
how far certain institutions have moved from hard assets to paper ( virtual ) assets.

Could we make an indicator based on the ( unregulated ) derivative bubble? This would not give the when, but with the exponential growth, it might give an upper limit.

y -- Trend lines. Simply trend lines that I've adjudged to be pretty reliable! Enjoy!

Eldo: IMO, you're dwelling far too much on the actions of the man in the street. If the entire N. American gold industry can be purchased for less than the market cap of KO, the efforts of the man in the street will not be required to move PMs. It will require only a few folks with deeper pockets than your's or mine to effect miraculous changes in gold's fortune. The overall effect of people like me ... not so sure about "deep pockets Eldo" .... will be as nothing. I'm just hoping for a profitable ride. I already bought the ticket - cheap.

GOLD HAS BOTTOMED!! Here's why:
1 ) Money supply is soaring!
2 ) Currency crises are roaring!
3 ) Wall Street is snoring!
4 ) Clinton and Gore are whoring ( foreign money ) !
5 ) Jimmy Rogers is boaring!
6 ) Silver is a leadin! ( cupboard about to be raided )
7 ) Aussie dollar gold price is a spikin! ( bottomed over a month ago and always leads US dollar gold price. )
8 ) Funds are a coverin! ( dropping volume on setbacks )
9 ) Specialists are a buyin! ( rising open interest on upticks )
10 ) Ten week xau cycle is a risin!
11 ) Stocks and bonds are a toppin! ( Mutual fund cash is dryin up )
12 ) Derivatives on the Dow is the final unleveraged instrument to succumb to irrational exhuberance.
13 ) Foreigners are buyin' ( at the top as usual ) .
14 ) Y2K problems are just startin'.
15 ) Japan is stallin'! ( Negative GNP and banking system crises loomin' )
16 ) YEAR 7 of the last decade ( always bad for financials )
17 ) FLUX AND CHAOS a brewin' ( ala Cherokee )
18 ) ABX closin in unprofitable mines and covering hedges.
19 ) War cycle bottoming!
20 ) I STILL HATE GOLD! AND I'm a died-in-the-wall goldbug
AND ONE MORE:
21 ) THE PACK IS BACK and what are their colors? You got it fellow KITCO-ites--GREEN AND GOLD--soon to be everyone's favorite colors!
Vince would be proud!