Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 00:03 - ID#57232)
Aurator: Your "link" to exploding gold and silver for Byron is great! Now where did I see that "site" before? Am I becoming clarivoyant? And I was dumb enought to look! That's the first time I've seen "site" humor!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 00:16 - ID#431263)
If you haven't looked at Bill Buckler's Privateer Gold charts recently you're in for a real shock! Aussie gold has already broken out of its downtrend channel over a month ago and where Aussie gold goes US gold always follows! Read his gold commentary on these charts at the gold page at And don't forget to check out the FRONT PAGE! Thanks Bill for one great site! A tip of the Hatlo cheesehead to you!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 00:28 - ID#431263)
Anybody here at Kitco signed up for Joe Granville's DOW 10,000 cruise this coming January? I hear old Joe is so excited he forgot to look at the name of ship he booked--"SHIP OF FOOLS!"

(Tue Oct 07 1997 00:35 - ID#57232)
@NewPhysics - and well beyond the fringe
Colleen, Mike Sheller: The book called "Second Sight" by Judith Orloff, MD, Warner Books, 1997 is fascinating -- an apparently true story about a Psychiatrist who discovers that she is clairvoyant. Her prose is smoothly written, beginning with story and images that anyone could appreciate, even the doubter like myself. She develops her own awakening in a convincing way, and describes how her own mother, an MD as well, had clairvoyant power which she suppressed.
The researcher that I had referred to was Dr. Thelma Moss, a psychologist and psychic researcher at the UCLA Neuropsychiatric Institute. Dr. Orloff relates that she worked in Dr. Moss' lab before she went to medical school. I don't think Dr. Moss is still active, and interest in her Kirlian photography has faded.
This book is the most convincing of any I have read -- the sceptic that I am. One common thread I see in her book is the concept that each individual's clairvoyant talents are different, and when these talents are shared in common activity, the outcome is markedly enhanced. Another point I find compelling is the concept that these clairvoyant talents, whatever they are, are most likely to come to the fore when one is not concentrating on them. I think the best way to say this is that our regular conscious world suppresses these talents. I find the analogy with Redfeld's Celestine Prophesies compelling - although the latter is in fictional form. Strangely compelling nonetheless.
Incidentally, I reviewed one of the Nostradamus web pages tonight -- Sollog is thoroughly outclassed! I'm still far away from linking past, present and future, except in anticipating the next note in Pachelbel's Canon in D, or Bethoven's Moonlight Sonata. Of course, I'm not sure I'd really want to predict the future with perfect clarity.

What we are doing at Kitco is pooling our talents -- together we are much more effective than by ourselves -- and many of us are freely expressing all of our thoughts for the benefit of others. Maybe the internet is part of the awakening. Let's hope that control of the internet doesn't happen.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 00:36 - ID#431263)
Anybody here read Bob Prechter's "AT THE CREST OF THE TIDAL WAVE" recently? I notice that he no longer advertizes it on CNBC anymore. Perhaps he no longer believes the last line of his promo, "There still is time to act!" Anybody here at Kitco believe Bob's gold predictions will ever come to pass?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 00:39 - ID#335190)
Volcker @ Pay attention now."Brave New World" eh!
October 6, 1997
Volcker warns of potential turmoil in emerging markets

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker warned on Monday that excessive capital flows into emerging markets may trigger economic or financial turmoil in those developing nations. "Let's not lose sight of the fact that, for all our hopes, ... those emerging economies ... have attracted a lot of investments, a great deal of portfolio capital," Volcker told the Money Marketeers of New York University, a private grouping of Wall Street economists. Volcker admitted that investments in emerging markets may seem "marginal" in an overall portfolio.

"But, collectively, these are enormous relative to the size of those economies," Volcker said as he received a Lifetime Achievement Award for his contribution to the U.S. economy and the stability of financial markets. Volcker cited, among the negative consequences that may result from heavy investments in emerging economies, foreign exchange volatily, rising inflation or real estate bubbles.

"Capital markets can hug you to death," warned Volcker who expressed particular concern over Southeast Asian markets, including Thailand.
Volcker said concern over such financial instability raised concern among central bankers about how to deal with "serious and recurrent problems" or the "systemic threat" of multiple market collapses.

"In smaller countries, financial crises can quickly turn into economic crises with very serious consequences," added Volcker who received his Money Marketeers award on the 18th anniversary of the "bloody Saturday" when U.S. policymakers decided to attack double-digit inflation.

Volcker also ruled out the "Brave New World" theory about the current American economic dream, saying "It's not that the United States looks so good, it's that the rest of the world looks so bad."

Capital flows from Europe and Japan, where demand for capital has slumped along with sluggish growth, are one of the factors that curbed market rates and helped fuel the current U.S. expansion.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 00:39 - ID#386276)
Interesting trading stragies.
How to pyramid you net worth using golds next bull run.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 00:44 - ID#57232)
6pack: I find your post about Volker interesting. Aren't his concerns about investing in SE Asia a little late?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 00:49 - ID#227238)
6pak: Volker's comments were an interesting read. Especially, his less than sanguine view of the economy known as Utopia US.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 00:54 - ID#431263)
Bull markets start with a bang when everyone is bearish! Bull markets end with a whimper when everyone is bullish! I think I heard a whimper on August 6! Granville and Battapaglia notwithstanding!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 01:03 - ID#335190)
Earl & JFT @ Volker
I suggest that Volker is telling a story of importance. I expect all hell
will break out very soon. This guy is the grand daddy of Central Banking,
of the world. He has said something of importance. I do not believe it is
after the fact. No, much will be made of his remarks. Stocks down likely.
Take care.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 01:14 - ID#431263)
Volcker should know chaos when he sees it. He sure caused enough of it back in the early eighties! Heilige sheiss! Can you imagine what would happen to the typical variable rate mortgage or home equity loan today if the prime rate were suddenly to jump back to 21%! But, to be fair, he really had no choice with Carter at the helm. Thank God we've got a president who feels our pain and makes us feel good to be in debt up to our eyeballs! NOT!!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 01:15 - ID#335190)
Volcker @ Federal Reserve
Paul Volcker ( 1927 - ) Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
since 1979, appointed by President Carter, reappointed by President
Reagan for another four years term beginning August 6, 1983, Educated at
Princeton, Harvard and London School of Economics; employed by Federal
Reserve Bank of New York, 1952-57; Chase Manhattan Bank, 1957-61;
Treasury Department, 1961-74; president Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1975-79

(Tue Oct 07 1997 01:25 - ID#255285)
in a laundromat near the Alamo

JTF What a great audience! utterly inadvertent humour I assure you. I am still trying to understand, being slower than Sir Sydney Snail on occaision, exactly what your XAU/Au ratio is *measuring*.
I understand what the figures are, i just don't understand how the units of the components of the ratio lead to the measurement. Perhaps you could just lead me through it rather slowly ;-}

Was that Syd I just saw overtaking me on the way to the Erisian Golden Apple at the top of this crazy carousel flagpole?

JTF I had no idea that one cosmology ( which one? ) had the universe hidden in Orions belt. In Greek mythology Orion was a hunter. In one story Artemis ( aka Diana I think ) goddess of the SILVER moon, fell in love with Orion.

This girl was beside herself in love, she daydreamed so much, about her lover Orion, and about the price of GOLD going to $425 by Valentines day 1998, that she forgot her duties. And, as all good astrologers know, Diana has to send the moon on it journey each night. That's right folks, while this Diana was spooning over her hulking hunter Orion, the moon didnt get lit in the evening. This made things quite difficult for us earth bounds, not being able to see in the night like the Cat-man can.

Anyway, Di, that is Artemis, has a twin brother Apollo. Although Di is a great shot with a SILVER arrow, she can't see at night without the moon. Apollo, who was named after a 20th Century moonrocket, liked to hunt at night with his sister Di. One night, as they were strolling along the beach avoiding annoying rollerbladers, street hawkers and crazed astrologers, they spied a large fish out to sea. Immediately Apollo challenged Diana to hit it. It was a long way out to sea, but she was a mean shot. She came top in the local champs. Slowly, Diana drew back her bow, she took careful aim and let the arrow loose. It arched silver across the moonless sky....thunnnnn.
Unfortunately it was not a fish that Diana shot, it was not a rhino either. A couple of days later Orions body was washed up on shore. She had killed her lover.
Inconsolable, she put his body in the sky, flanked by his hunting dogs Big 'un and little 'un ( Canis Major & Minor ) for all eternity.
That is also the *reason* that the moon looks so sad and silver looks so good.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 01:37 - ID#431263)
What would happen if:

All them foreign dollars even made it back to the States as an immediate claim on goods and services ( stuff ) ?

All them foreign dollars and all them domestic dollars decided in unison to test the full faith and credit of the United States of America by piling into gold?

Naw! Could never happen! People are far too sophisticated to do something so stupid! Or is that far too stupid to do something so sophisticated! Whatever!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 02:11 - ID#257148)
old men in the evening, playing dominoes, waiting for the train...



It may help the frisson of this story, if i introduce New Zealands new form of democrazy. Mixed Member Proportional representation. Each person has two votes ( BTW NZ was the first country to give women the vote ) one for a person, one for a party. By some pretty fast mathematics we manage to elect 120 parliamentarians to govern our 3.x million people. Our first MMP Parliament was formed by an uncomfortable coalition between the ( mostly ) reigning National Party - conservative free market with a social conscience - and the newly formed NEW ZEALAND FIRST - a splinter of the National Party that vowed it would *never* enter into a coalition government with the hated National Party.
The election result meant no clear majority so the National Party and the NZ First Party came to, well a *political* arrangement to form a governing coalition - National Party is the dog and New Zealand First the tail in this utterly wierd beast.
So a splitting of parliamentary portfolios between National & NZ First. The Politically very astute Bill Birch ( National ) has let the naive Winston Peters ( NZ First Leader ) be the TREASURER...
And has let young Winnie put his foot in his mouth time after time, and now, at the most opportune time Birch shows whos boss....

New Zealand: Balance of payments deficit hits record
By Terry Hall in Wellington
New Zealand had a record NZ$6bn ( US$3.8bn ) balance of payments deficit in the year to June due to a sharp rise in imports which included a new Australian-built frigate for the navy.
A sharp deterioration in the current account had been expected, but the figure was about NZ$700,000 worse than the most pessimistic forecasts, and led to sharp falls in the New Zealand dollar.
In Wellington it ended the day down 1 cent against the Australian dollar. In London, it finished 1.25 cents lower against the US dollar, and over 2 cents against sterling. Domestic interest rates and New Zealand shares showed modest gains.
Winston Peters, the treasurer, said the deficit represented the bottom of the current economic trough and the figures would improve. It was vital that the government continued to run budget surpluses.
The current account deficit has been steadily worsening since 1993. Initially this was because of a worsening trade balance, mainly blamed on a strong New Zealand dollar and the Reserve Bank's tight monetary policy.
More recently the deficit's problems have intensified as the high value of the dollar has encouraged New Zealanders to holiday abroad, and discouraged tourists.
There have been substantial rises in other invisible payments including dividends by overseas-owned companies and a slowdown in offshore earnings by New Zealand groups.
As a percentage of gross domestic product, the deficit climbed from 4.8 per cent in the March quarter to 6.4 per cent in June. Excluding the new frigate, which cost NZ$563m, the deficit was 5.8 per cent, according to Statistics New Zealand.
While the figure is considered worrying in New Zealand, it is still less than the deficits in the mid-1980s when the economy enjoyed a short-lived boom. Between June 1984 and December 1986, the deficit hovered between 6.4 and 8.9 per cent. Remarks by Bill Birch, the minister of finance, in London suggesting New Zealand could drop its top tax rate from 33 to 25 per cent have sparked criticism from leaders of the government's coalition partner, New Zealand First.
Mr Peters, who is also leader of NZ First, said the suggestion was "not a starter".
However Mr Birch's remarks were welcomed by business circles, including the Manufacturers' Federation. Mr Birch's remarks are seen as supportive of Jim Bolger, the prime minister, who has distanced himself and the National party from NZ First policies in recent days, following a a big drop in NZ First's popularity.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 02:12 - ID#335190)
Normandy Mining of Australia @ Toronto & Montreal Exchanges
Tuesday, October 7, 1997
Normandy to trade shares in Toronto

Mining Reporter The Financial Post
Normandy Mining Ltd., the world's fourth-largest publicly traded gold miner, expects its shares to start trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange by the end of this month.

The shares will trade in the form of American Depository Shares, representing 10 individual shares of Normandy as they trade on the Australian Stock Exchange, Normandy chief executive Robert Champion de Crespigny told analysts yesterday.

The depository shares are being used because the company wants its securities priced on the same general scale as other gold producers on North American exchanges, he said.

Normandy operates 14 gold mines in Australia, and has mines in New Zealand and in three countries in Africa. It has a market capitalization of US$2.1 billion. When the depository shares hit the TSE, investors are expected to value them at 10 times their value on the Australian Stock
Exchange. Generally, Australian companies have more shares outstanding and lower share prices than their North American counterparts.

Normandy has about 1.63 billion shares ( NDY/ASX ) outstanding. They have traded in a range from A$1.22 and A$1.91 during the past year. The A$ and C$ are worth virtually the same amount.

Normandy's Canadian peers have far fewer shares outstanding and the shares trade for higher prices. Placer Dome Inc. has about 239 million shares outstanding ( PDG/TSE ) . Placer's shares have traded between $19.00 and $36.50 over the past 12 months.

Barrick Gold Corp. has 373 million shares outstanding ( ABX/TSE ) and they have been priced between $26.25 and $41.50. Consolidating the company's shares to give them a North American-style price, de Crespigny said, would make them appear pricey to Australians.
In an information kit, the company uses US$12.15, or $16.68, as an example value for the depository shares on the TSE or Montreal Exchange, where Normandy expects to gain a listing by early 1998. At that price, Normandy says it would have a price-earnings ratio of 21:1 and a price-to-cash-flow ratio of 7:1. It would have a dividend yield of 3.7%.

De Crespigny said Normandy is listing on the Toronto and Montreal exchanges partly because it wants to be able to compare itself directly with such competitors asPlacer, Barrick and Homestake Mining Co. of San Francisco.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 02:18 - ID#411259)
..... Another Urinating Post- Hey, Somebody has to talk about this stuff! .....

The apparently endless stream of proposed wagers on this site reminds one as much of the two fellows urinating over the rail of the Golden Gate Bridge. Say's the first: "Damn! That water is cold!" Bested the other: "And it sure is deep!"

Very few here have ever met, or will ever meet, one another. These proposed wagers amount to a pile of dung offered as something of value. Can I have a vote here? No more of these silly bets, they prove absolutely nothing, and I suspect the proffers of these challenges would slink away upon finding themselves at the shorter end. All puns intended.

Silver to retest the highs, but that looks like all she has. The charts and my gut say down, down, down.

I'll buy PL anywhere under 415, I like it.

Gold will continue to languish before behind slammed "into the dirt, from whence it came." I forgot who quoted me recently, but thanks for reminding me of that one.

Regarding your query of my ability to recognize a bull:
I am reminded of the young bull and the old bull standing atop a hill. The young bull shouts, "let's run on down there and screw one of those cows!" To which the old bull advises, " Let's walk down there and screw 'em all."

Cherokee @ What's Next?
1998 - Gold goes up!

Wise WordsWise to Wait.

Couldn't disagree more

.. Symbol Boy ..
Enough already! I liked the earring better.

Away..To move everything I own to Irvine.

Bodacious Bart Bouncer Boy - Good Call!. As for the new software, you are a master! The changeover was seamless and accompanied by very little pain. Search Engine? I wonder how the Conventional Wisdom will be affected when ones predictions and trades can be reviewed in light of present day? Things are looking up here. Thanks!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 02:25 - ID#33164)
Morning All!-

The past day has seen some real venom sliding into this group.

It is irrelevant as to whether an opinion is 'premature' or inaccurate, unless one has PAID for that opinion or service.

What is relevant is that these good people have the courage to share their considerable knowledge with us all.

Snide, as opposed to constructive criticism , is inappropriate in this fine site.

BART: This is a great site, and may you go from strength to strength.

ALL: You are a superb group, and I salute you all.

Have a GREAT day!

Strad Master
(Tue Oct 07 1997 03:04 - ID#250297)
Silver? Down?
RJ: I have it on good authority from your esteemed colleague ( the one who's opinion you respect ) that there just ain't no more silver supplies left if you total up what's already accounted for vs what needs to be delivered. One of you is missing somethng. BTW, he's in your camp ( as you know ) on PL and gold.
I've enjoyed reading about your exploits in the Armed Forces. ( First chance I've had to comment. ) You've led a fascinating life! Much fodder for your upcoming novel??
Why would you move from Newport to Irvine?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 03:18 - ID#255285)
time and tide....
colleen, G'day, have you managed to trace this fellow, Kelogg or sontag, whatever... sounds conspirational ..? Has he got the gooods?
You gotta be careful what you read! No one knows the future. No one. ( IMHO of course ) Thank you for your offer of hospitality re my cousin, I will let you know when I know whats going on. The extended family seems to have a repeating history of living in Africa, previously in Kinshasa and Nairobi, as well as in Canada, Europe and Guernsey, always facinating the links...often the Precious metals have something to do with it....

(Tue Oct 07 1997 03:40 - ID#255285)
Who is Mahatir calling racist now?? This guy, just back from Cuba is Amazing.
Malaysia: Mahathir denies rumours he will quit
By James Kynge in Kuala Lumpur
Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia's prime minister, yesterday dismissed speculation that he may resign and criticised foreigners for allegedly trying to oust him by sowing discord between him and his deputy, Anwar Ibrahim.
The prime minister, who spoke on returning from a trip to South American countries and Cuba, also predicted that currency traders would drive down the Malaysian ringgit today because "Mahathir is opening his mouth".
"Dr Mahathir should keep his mouth shut. . . so that currency traders can raid every country and get away with it," he said, a reference to what he sees as attempts by powerful foreign speculators to impoverish developing countries by attacking their currencies.
However, it has become clear that dissent is rising within government circles. Many officials say privately that the handling of the south-east Asian regional currency crisis by Mr Anwar, who is also finance minister, has been more rational. "I wish the PM would just stop his talking," one official said privately yesterday. "Anwar has to spend his whole time cleaning up after him."
Mr Anwar, 50, acknowledges that Malaysia has economic problems, such as its trade and current account deficit, which require attention. By contrast, Dr Mahathir insists the country's fundamentals are "very strong", and repeatedly lashes out at the foreign media and fund managers.
Political observers say Mr Anwar, whose rivalry with Dr Mahathir has been a behind-the-scenes affair for many years, is unlikely to launch an open bid for power. They say the prime minister's power-base, although damaged by his shrill response to the currency crisis, remains strong.
Dr Mahathir, 71, has been prime minister for 16 years and has shown no sign he plans to stand down before or after his current term ends in 1999. He underwent heart surgery in 1989 but maintains punishing schedules.
Much of the recent selling pressure on the ringgit, which has depreciated by about 25 per cent since early July, has been attributed to Dr Mahathir's anti-foreign, anti-free market rhetoric.
Yesterday, he said: "I am quite sure the Western press will be clapping and say south-east Asian brownies cannot manage their economies. They will celebrate in jubilation."
"When you are down, they kick you. These are the people who talk about helping and looking after humanitarian affairs but when Thailand was down, they did not come in to help but they kicked Thailand down," he added.

BTW The birds are telling me that more and more Asian diplomats are converging on Japan this month..

(Tue Oct 07 1997 03:53 - ID#206358)
Would be gratful if you post the actual message on kitco.I can't enter the url ....thanks!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 04:14 - ID#257148)
JIIN Salamat Datang. Long time since I was in KL, did I get that right?e

entire story was posted in my 3:40.

The racist bit was this
"I am quite sure the Western press will be clapping and say south-east Asian brownies cannot manage their economies. They will celebrate in jubilation."
And the Denial of quitting bit was the whole thing. I wish you well in these troubled times. Keep your head!
Good day

(Tue Oct 07 1997 04:26 - ID#340214)
Now, Now Aurator: No one knows the future EXCEPT for me, FUTUREMAN!

Anything you wanna know?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 04:38 - ID#33164)
back for a bit

Had to get THAT one off my chest first thing this am.
I've now caught up on postings to see that 'testing' offended a few others. Well done, Bart!!

JTF: Thank you for 15:25 6/10 , and the info on Judith Orloff's book, which I have not yet read. I am interested in astrology, amongst many other things, but do not call myself an astrologer, I do have the ability though, to know if an astrologer knows what he/she is talking about. It seems to me that Mike Sheller is of the upper echeleon in that respect.

Aurator: Love your mythology!!! Gave the Sollog url yesterday- here it is again
Not sure what to think about this-the site is also filled with adverts for cigars and go-go dancers!! Like to keep an open mind.

Mike Sheller: re Copper: DBH of the JSE this morning faxed a copy of Merril Lynch's Oct97 report to me.
A brief quote:-
"So copper prices should be trending gently downwards with perhaps the occasional bear raid giving excitement. The only upside risk that we can see, short of a major Chinese buying programme , which appears very unlikely, wuld be serious and prolonged supply disruptions. But again, El Nino effect aside on Ok Tedi, these also seem unlikely"

(Tue Oct 07 1997 04:42 - ID#257148)
any other fresians grazing nearby?
Table me a table
Table me Opening closing High and low HM prices for next 10 trading days
You are history, man.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:01 - ID#257148)
snake oil isgonna be the next hot market folks, can i interest anyone??
colleen, hi, just got to the link, as soon as i read they compared this guy to that mountebank Nostradamus, i realised i had to read no further, like if i see a reference to Thor Heyerdahl, Eric von Danniken, Carlos Castenda, Lobsang Rampa, you know, frauds i have read and have to read no further, that is why i always read a bibliography before i buy...
thanks..;= ) )

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:01 - ID#257148)
snake oil isgonna be the next hot market folks, can i interest anyone??
colleen, hi, just got to the link, as soon as i read they compared this guy to that mountebank Nostradamus, i realised i had to read no further, like if i see a reference to Thor Heyerdahl, Eric von Danniken, Carlos Castenda, Lobsang Rampa, you know, frauds i have read

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:01 - ID#386245)
Almost fell asleep trying to trade gold shares today!! Everything down in OZ--- but a few big campers still nibbling Normandy ( NDY ) .I am always very wary when there is no volume. When we bounce off resistance I'll be in whole hog!!

6pak--thanks for the Normandy post.Fourth biggest gold company on the orb. Should broaden their base a bit once listed in Toronto. They are suuuch a good bargain ( IMVHO ) . ( Psssssssssst---hey meeester--wanna buy a cheeeeeaap gold share???Have I got a deeeeal for yoooou!!! Buy Normandy--Make muuuuchos dineros!!! ) .

Cheeseman--You are right about Lihir Gold. They're sittin' on a volcano full of the stuff!!! They seem to have avoided the el nino drought the rest of the country is suffering. They are on a little island so should avoid the risk of tribal problems etc. They are ahead of the start up production schedule and in my VHO will be much higher down the road. Vengold ? is it in N. America--should be a good bet!!

Auracious---G'day, mate. Mahathir is not a racist. He just doesn't like people that don't come from Asia. Actually--he is a very astute politician!! Most of what he says about gringos is for internal consumption. He may have gone a bit far this time however, and is, IMHO becoming an albatross around Malaysias neck.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:18 - ID#257148)
looking for the sandman
Nick, G'day mate, i though that post suggested that it was Mahatir calling Euro journos racist, and the way he did it, as a blatant attempt at resorting to the scoundrels refuge of patriotism, as a blatant act of racism againt euros. What do I know? oldman, if you are listening, *only euros are racists*, HAH Oh to be a Pathan
in agreement about our resident astrologer, although i suspect his dietary habits. ( it is a history thing )
;- )

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:18 - ID#26793)
Aurator: If you are still up let me respond to your question to JTF about the XAU/Spot Ratio. First, to get the daily number you divide the closing XAU by the closing spot gold price. Monday night in the US that would be 106.57/332.60 = .320 This answer is in ounces. We are measuring risk by determining the ratio on a daily basis and comparing it to the historical record. The XAU began December 19, 1983. During that time the ratio has ranged from .146 to .397. ( creating a pseudo XAU for pre 1983 has found a low of .132 in January, 1979 )

The ratio answers the simple question: how much above ground, safe "in pocket gold" am I willing to risk on the chance that I can dig even more out of the ground. The record shows that buying the XAU below .20 and selling at or before .30 has always produced a profit. The ratio provides guidance for an entry point for long or short activity. Being at .320 now it says we have just entered the risky area. This is all new so caution is advised. Others are using this approach but get answers in dollars. I feel that using dollars for answers introduces the inflation factor and skewers the result. I will post some other sites that use an XAU ratio.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:18 - ID#386245)
G'day colleen. What's the time in S.A.? Saw a report on the tube last night about crime in J'burg. 65 murders a day??? ( 9 times the US average ) . Or was that the whole country?? High fences with barbed wire, electronic security, rottweilers etc. Probably a media beat-up. I see stories about OZ that I don't recognize!! We know a few S.A.ans here in OZ that say they wanted to lower the stress levels. Absolutely LOVE the country--but couldn't sleep at night!!!

Aurator--If P.J. hasn't left you yet ( "You love that damned computer more than me!!! ) --say G'day from a rascal in OZ.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:30 - ID#203245)
The Northern Hemispherians are all sleepin' folks!!! We've got the joint to ourselves. Quick--someone say sumpthin' intelligent!!GG ) D!!!!!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:34 - ID#26793)

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:37 - ID#26793)
Nick: This 'murican is up.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:45 - ID#257148)
learnin an yearnin for more
Donald only just up, please continue i will check later, got that bit, but, when i look at what the AUX *means* ie in my incomplete understanding, i have trouble understanding what is being measured when the AUX is divided by the Spot Price of Gold.

Important data input:
Price of 11 components shares
No of ( counting ) issued shares
Base Market Divisor
Spot Price of Gold

The price of a stock depends on a large number of variables, from the quality of the management to the efficiency of the mines ( funny mentalists flock together ) and the quality of reserves etc etc..that is there are many many considerations that a built into that one datum point the price of one stock on one day.

The AUX is a weighted Capital index derived from the current price of the 11 shares that comprise it and the number of shares ( but not all issued capital ) weighted by total issued capital, but the index itself is a ratio around a fixed point and the Base Market Divisor is the finagling factor here. I here from others that this BMD has been altered often, I am not sure whether the data has been adjusted for the changes to the index. But even then I look at the AUX as a useful ratio, even after the adjustments, because it is a ratio that assists in comparing almost like with almost like, that is a group of stocks in say 1990 and a group today. and then when i look at *why* i should divide the AUX by Spot, and I ask myself what are the units of this measurement.
i can be reeel slow sometimes
thank you for your assistance and your patience.

Good Morning to all the WESTIES :- ) )

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:50 - ID#257148)
East is East and West is West
Nick, like Northern?
You got a great sense of humour cobber. Now, Why do I like Sons of Gwalia and why don't you?
BTW I think you shoulda won Sheller's rigged contest, reminds me of a watch i bought in Singapore..

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:56 - ID#357246)

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:56 - ID#386245)
Beijing:trade talks louder than rights

(Tue Oct 07 1997 05:57 - ID#26793)

(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:01 - ID#257148)
gabby, me
Nick, PJ sends thanks

(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:05 - ID#33164)
Lunch in an hour
Is it Morning or Evening to you, Nick? 12 noon here in Jhbg.

I think there's a lot more crime here than we see in the papers! Petty crime is probably ignored by most at this time, as we know the police are not coping as well as they should. Hopeful about Meyer Kahn's appointent as Police CEO though. Give him some time.

High fences with barbed wire etc-? I have 3 places-here where we live in Sandton [3 acres] and access from all sides if "They ' wanted to get in. Dismantled the alarm system some 10 years ago and do NOT sit behind closed doors all day. I think that somehow fear creates a pheromone that attracts predators. Been here for 16 years and the only robbery was in the first week we moved in.

Have 21 and 45 acres in Diepsloot [ of all places!] Very beautiful, but there is quite a lot of petty theft there. This morning had a call from one of the workers to say that a white chap with some black helpers was busy moving some jumps into a white bakkie on the main road from one of these ppties. And then there's the odd piece of corrugated roofing removed from a cottage here and there. Apart from the gum pole fence on the road, where some 22 poles have been removed in the past 18 months!

I'm still positive about SA though, and really hope it works. Great people here, and when the attitude of expectation with little thought of return has been conquered, we should move forward. Still in a growing-up phase.

ALL re COPPER - Anyone seen CNN site

Tell Mike Sheller when he wakes up, please

(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:07 - ID#386245)
Aurator, mate, I LIKE Sons of Gwalia. Good investment I reckon. Only problem is--they've sold a lot of their yeller stuff 10 ( ten ) years forward!! If--IF???--WHEN gold zooms, the upside is limited because of all the forward selling!! I like the shares with lots of forwards ( like Normandy and Acacia ) but ALSO heaps of blue sky with lots of ground and good takeover strategies!! Normandy is wrappin' up the whole joint at bargain basement prices. They've got a good chunk of Uncle Joe's shares and I'd like to see em get more . Did you see that Great Central has wrapped up Eagle--a great buy!!! Three years from now, we're gonna look at the prices of these companies and say "Jeez, why didn't I mortgage the house/farm/property and BUY those suckers!!!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:07 - ID#26793)

(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:17 - ID#26793)

(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:34 - ID#33164)
Hi to Donald

Donald, Morning-
A special thanks for all the great sites you've posted up for our benefit.
I'm trying hard to keep up with all the reading!

Mike Sheller
(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:35 - ID#347447)
Morning All -Colleen, Aurator
COLLEEN: What are you trying to do giving me all that "fundamental" infor on copper? Jinx me? ( :- ) ) I think the bearishness fits nicely with the chart, don't you think? If price breaks support as shown, then the bears are validated and the path is clear to short. But I think now's the time to bet the other way. Yesterday's action sure seemed to agree. BTW, thank you for the compliment re my astrology. I am really more comfortable with theoretics than ephemerals, but I never could pass up casting an eye on a 'scope. AURATOR: Thoroughly enjoy curling up with "Aurator's Mythology" now and then. Probably wouldn't if I had asked for a "bibliography." Calling Carlos Castaneda a "fraud" is a serious mistake. Perhaps you might be more accurate to confess you didn't perceive what he was doing in his series of magnificent works. Don't throw the baby out with know. You revel in your skepticism just a bit TOO much. You will have to have an epiphany, metanoia, a spiritual awakening. Wanna buy a ticket to Damascus? So you figured out my "kontest" ( actually a "kwiz" ) was rigged, huh? I have helped promote and run a few sweepstakes for corporate clients in the past. You may have even participated in some as a consumer. But this one was on the up and up, honest Mate!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:43 - ID#386245)
Mike Sheller--I agree with Aurator--I shoulda won the QWIZ!!!,mate.

For my prize, I want a free reading. I was born on May 6, 1947. Is the moon in my Taurean 7th house, mate???

Mike Sheller
(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:47 - ID#347447)
Win this one for the Gapper
There has been some murmuring here recently about the gold gaps needing to be closed before prices can contunue merrily upward. This ain't necessarily so. Actually, in a real true major bull advance, the first gap is a breakaway gap that NEVER gets filled. It's the mother of all gaps to come ( continuation gap, and the final gap at the top, whose name I have forgot ( Fred? Al? Levi? ) ) . I'm not being orthodox here, just simply reviewing the options. IF these gaps hold and are not filled, we will never see 325 again. And good riddance, I say.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:52 - ID#347447)
and Jupiter aligns with...
NICK: I won't even trouble you for your place and time, I'll do a "solar" chart. We'll see what the REAL Nick looks like, won't we. Just be patient. My plate is very full these days, unlike some people who can just sit around all day trading stuff. But you won't get off free, my fee is 500,000 Phillipine Pesos.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:52 - ID#24857)
Cheap Aussie Gold Stox
Well I couldn't keep my nose clean for long...I've got some Acacia and Plutonic....but what spooked WMC?

Mike Sheller
(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:55 - ID#347447)
By special request
NICK: Hold on. I"ve revved up the other computer. I'm going to give you a quickie ( reading that is ) so stick around.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:57 - ID#386245)
Mike--I agree. I'm looking at lots of gold charts with gaps. If we go up from here those gaps are gonna be a long time filling!! Just noticed gold down another $1.30. If 330 holds there will be lots of good trading opportunities. Don't know about a BIG move up--but maybe a move--then backfilling--then another move etc. It's a long hard road to hoe--so don't expect miracles.

As fer the red metal, mate, there sure is a lotta that stuff comin' on stream!! You sure that rhino doesn't have his head down while he nibbles on the grass??

(Tue Oct 07 1997 06:59 - ID#257148)
old Macdonald had a farm
Mike Sheller I was unjoking when i called casteada a fraud. One of my anthropology lecturers ( any one figured out how long this gabby lad stayed at university yet? ) gave us as required reading the Yacqui Trilogy, then the expose of this dreadful fraud. If you analyse, ( funny mentalists r us ) on a time continuum, the DATES ( remember it was the dates that got Mr Puetz - #hint# - if youre gonna make a name for yourself as a predictor NEVER GIVE A DATE ) Casteada in his first three books claimed to be in several different places at the same time. Further, at some time he claimed to have met ( && ) - ( it has been 20 years- ) and yet in a later book, talking of the same person ( && ) he claims never to have met.
Analyse, I say, in no uncertain terms, without humility, becuase the research was not my own, Casteada is a F R AU D. He had his degrees stripped from him, I mean, really, this is over 20 years ago, and to think that otherwise intelligent...
Where is URI Geller when you need him?
real gone

George Cole
(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:01 - ID#430205)
bear market
Support for the Puetz scenario:

Beware of the Id

The following article comes from Rick Ackerman who has a column in the
San Francisco Examiner. The subject of the article is very appropriate
for current market conditions even though it was written a while ago.



To understand why the coming bear market will be far more destructive than
any before it, ponder if you will the cataclysm that befell the fictional
planet Altair-4.

It was there, as depicted in the 1956 film "Forbidden Planet," that the
Krell civilization had reached the very pinnacle of technology. Their
crowning achievement was the construction of an inexhaustibly powerful
reactor that instantly produced and delivered anything the mind could

This was great for Krell homemakers, because they could rustle up a
sumptuous dinner in a few seconds, complete with a magnum of cosmically
sublime 1949 Chateau Margaux. But they had neglected to consider that the
reactor would also materialize the fears, jealousy and savagery of their
own primitive subconscious. They were destroyed, as you may already have
guessed, by Monsters from the Id.

Here on Earth we have succeeded in creating a crude version of the Krell
reactor, and it is about to unleash its own monsters from the Id on our
stock market and the economy. While it cannot serve up a magnum of 1949
Chateau Margaux on demand, it can churn out many hundreds of billions of
dollars of credit with little exertion, just as it has been doing for some

The result has been the creation of a global credit bubble that is about
to collapse and take the stock market with it. The size of the bubble is
the reason why the market will not return to health with the 10 to 20
percent correction that nearly everyone on Wall Street seems to be hoping

For when the bear market finally begins, it will not be correcting excesses
in the stock market so much as it will be inflicting punishment on a vastly
larger global credit market that has run amok. I have remained quite
bullish as stocks have soared to new record highs since the first of the
year. But their upward slope has become almost vertical, and this cannot
continue for long.

I expect that, somewhere down the road, when share prices have been cut in
half, the excess of the credit system will be cited as the cause. It will
seem obvious by then that it had become too easy for too many to borrow
too much.

All it takes is the mere stroke of a pen. Sign your name to the bottom of
a check furnished by one of the money-center banking behemoths, deposit the
check in your own account, then spend away. And don't worry about the 19.5
percent interest charges that you will be servicing down the road, since,
until [6 months later], those charges will be capped at an irresistible
5.9 percent.

I estimate that if Americans woke up one morning in a real borrowing mood,
they could cause about $1.5 trillion worth of fresh credit to materialize
literally out of nowhere. For perspective, that's a brand new sport utility
vehicle in every driveway. Or a 45-inch color TV, digital video player and
theater-quality sound system in every living room.

I cannot substantiate that $1.5 trillion figure scientifically, but it may
be low. Just ask around the office. If a third of your co-workers have
been offered revolving-charge credit totaling $40,000 or more in the last
12 months -- as they probably have, at a minimum -- just multiply that
times 36 million potential borrowers, or a third of the American workforce.

So if you thought the Fed was controlling the money supply by deftly
manipulating M1, M2 and M3, now you know the scary truth. In reality, money
-- or more properly, the supply of credit -- has evolved beyond the control
of the central bank. It has become fundamentally a creature of the mind,
subject to no limitation other than the vestigial caution and conscience of

The phenomenon is global. The world's central banks long ago severed the
link between cash money and any tangible store of value, creating in its
stead a New Age money system that could only be described as metaphysical
in nature. The gnomes have succeeded in institutionalizing the concept of a
free lunch, thereby energizing as dangerous a monster as ever stalked this

Consumers are not the only ones who have been empowered to create virtual
mountains of extraterrestrial currency, as the Japanese example will serve
to illustrate. In trying -- so far, in vain -- to prop up real estate
price, pump up their export-driven economy and keep deflation at bay,
Japan's central bank has practically been giving away yen. Institutional
borrowers from around the world can tap Japan's money tree for loans at
less than 2 percent. And they have done so with unbridled enthusiasm, to
the point where this "hot" money has become a major factor in driving the
world's stock markets to dizzying heights.

It's not hard to understand why the siphon action is so powerful, with
U.S. stocks promising steady gains of 15 to 25 percent per year and many
other equity markets doing as well or even better. Moreover, as the value
of the yen has fallen, the incentives have become even greater to put it to
work in stocks and bonds whose returns are denominated in other, stronger

Those who are betting that Japan will get its act together had better take
another look. In fact, they have tried everything imaginable, with no success.
This failure has implications which our stock-market bulls evidently have
failed to grasp. The most obvious is that the second largest economy in the
world cannot sink into oblivion without taking the largest economy with it.

Some who mistakenly regard themselves as prudent bears say we should be
studying the lessons of Japan because we will eventually face our own bear
market. But this would be like studying fog to get an inkling of what a
hurricane might be like.

When our own economy starts to collapse, it will make Japan's problems seem
trivial in comparison. The reason is that the Japanese have enjoyed a huge
advantage during their ongoing liquidation -- namely, having prosperous
Americans around as buyers. But there will be nobody around when our fire sale

There are other warning signs of the swiftness and totality of the disaster
to come. A few trading-room cowboys have been flushed out and
ceremoniously flogged for losing billions of dollars on highly leveraged,
esoteric financial instruments. But these same speculative vehicles still
flourish on a global scale and must still be unwound.

There is also the unfathomable prospect of 7,500 mutual funds all trying
to sell at the same time. For the record, they won't have to sell if there
are no buyers. They will give the shares back to you, then pound the heck
out of what few stocks there may be buyers for, namely the bluest of the
blue chips. So if you think there will be safety in the so-called
"quality" issues, you would do well to change the mix of your portfolio,
because the "good" stocks are going to get shellacked.

Most likely, gold stocks, bullion and long-term Treasuries will be the
best place to be, along with some foreign debt instruments. But don't
count on being able to shift your money when the trumpets sound, for there
will be no time then.

The probable cause of the crash will be a crisis in the currency markets
-- probably a run on the Japanese yen. Because most investors have been
thoroughly conditioned over the course of this decades-long bull market to
buy every dip, swoon and seizure, look for two huge waves down before
anyone seems to realize that The Big One has finally begun. That's when
fear will turn to panic. It is as good a reason as I can think of to exit
at least some shares now, rather than attempt to squeeze the last dime
from this bull market.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:10 - ID#57232)
Aurator: Enjoyed you post on Orion mythology -- I think I like your version than the Hollywood version a la "Men in Black". I also enjoyed your "site" humor even if it was inadvertent.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:16 - ID#386245)
George Cole--Your Rick Ackerman article is very impressive. When I take in that sort of reasoning ( and I'm still digesting it ) , I wonder about the wisdom of holding ANY share investment long term. In a meltdown, you may say "my gold shares ONLY went down 15% as compared to 50% for everything else". I would still rather be "holding" the standard that broke EVEN!!! George, what is that going to be??? Surely NOT US$$$$$!!???

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:18 - ID#257148)
And Isaac Asimov's 3 Laws of Robotics..
It is so cruel, this spinning planet
I must sleep now
this day will be exciting
I've just seen science fiction, astrology, Greek Mythology and all kitco-spun with gold. it has been a great evening.

"I'm not really sure where we are
They tell me we're circling a star
Well, I'll take their word, I don't know
I'm dizzy so may be that's so."

Jesse Winchester

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:19 - ID#57232)
Donald: You beat me to the punch on answering Aurator's question about XAU/gold ratio. I'm still waiting for gold bullion to rise -- RJ may be right that us gold bulls ( forever gold bugs ) are a bit premature. Hard to wait for the inevitable.
Donald/George Cole: If we are to have a "paper" implosion, which will probably be very soon if the Volker interpreation, as well as others is correct, is it likely be abrupt with a wipe out, or relatively slow motion with time for gold stocks to rise. My review of history indicates a better than 50/50 probability that gold stocks will rally. Ie 1929, and 1937, but not 1987. Currently I have 50% of my liquid funds in goldstocks/oil/defense and am beginning to wonder if its time to lock in profits despite the MidEast crisis -- how far do you go with brinksmanship?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:19 - ID#364147)
@ Nick(Canberra)
Man,are you OLD.......

Mike Sheller
(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:20 - ID#347447)
NICK'S READING (1-800-Gypsy)
NICK: Congratulations Nick, you're our INSTANT WINNER at Kitco for this morning ( night, noon, fill in desired time ) . Remember Nick, your starz impel, they don't compel! A look at your horoscope discloses you are a 15 degree Taurus. Stolid, bullish, a hard worker and a powerful partyer. Ooops, Pluto is squaring your Sun ( rough, tough 90 degree angle ) but trining your Venus. Unlucky at investments, but lucky at love, if you get my drift? Uranus ( you'll pardon the expression, Mate ) in Gemini, Second House ( solar, of course, so take it with a grain of Aurator's salt ) - you come up with all kinds o' cockamaymee schemes to make money, and you have been known to go off on all kinds of wild intellectual binges and crusades at a moment's notice. That Uranus doesn't get aspected from any other planet, 'cept a little sextile there to Mars. Seems as if your schemes and crusades get left high and dry more often than not, except when they get you into fistfights. Your Venus/Mars conjunction in Aries is VERY popular with the ladies. Nick, you've got IT as far as the fair sex is concerned. In Aries, that may give you a bit of that aloof male charm - sort of a love 'em and leave 'em kinda guy. If you happen to be married, you had better pay a little more attention to your mate, Mate, and be less enamored of your self. Use that charm to make one special person very happy, and you'll be very happy too. With Jupiter in Scorpio, Seventh house, you shouldn't have ANY trouble finding a lusty partner for your most intimate escapades. Neptune in Libra, solar seventh, makes you a lot of fun at parties, a genuinely sympathetic and supportive friend, and a very caring, sensitive parent, for all your outer bravado and worldly charm. A child will bring out some very stroing emotions in this life for you. So will speculation. Neptune opposes Venus, but that could be a strong open link back to the female sex once again. Is that all you have on your mind? Your Mercury in Taurus is just a degree away from New York Stock Exchange Venus, 5 Taurus - my cosmic degree for gold throughout time. Next to women, you love gold. Maybe you can find someone named "Goldy" and live happily ever after! Saturn squares your Mercury, so you are the strong SILENT type. You don't waste words, and are very direct when you speak. Unless you just get tongue-tied and don't know what to say. Then you depend on your Mars/Venus to get you out of awkward moments. Nick, this is the chart of the salt of the earth. Go sit next to Aurator!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:21 - ID#386245)
TED--only two years older than you, ya whipper snapper!!!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:23 - ID#57232)
Aurator: Good night to the Kitco resident poet. Not only are we dizzy, but our solar system is zipping around the milky way. I forget the precise velocity -- but we certainly don't want to hit anything at this speed -- apologies to Ralph Nader.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:28 - ID#257148)
it must be something in the water//
TED G'day. Alright yer seen GSC's 07:01? Beat That.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:29 - ID#427357)
Rhino Alert.....RHINO ALERT!
The inimitable Mike Sheller has located another Rhino ready for the stalking. This time its the Copper Rhino currently grazing at support, but close to explosively emerging from inactivity:

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:30 - ID#24857)
@Wow what a reading
Old? Judging from that reading Nick was just put in the same class as a good red that improves with age. I won't push my luck ( lack thereof ) by requesting one too.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:31 - ID#347447)
Fake Fraud
AURATOR: I say with utmost humility, but resolve, that the "anthropological establishment" does not understand what Castaneda was saying or doing in his works. If they did, they would be studying metaphysics as well. It would take too long to even begin to explain what these books were about. Suffice it to say that the details you speak of have NOTHING to do with the preparation Castanedas works are for the individual to realign his/her entire sense and understanding of "reality." The reality of academics is a musty consensus of little minds and detail-bound souls. There are forests beyond the pine needles, let alone the trees. These are the same scribes and Pharisees who condemned Jesus to fraud and fakery. Verily, I say, they have their reward. It is a closed and musty universe, grey, like their hearts, minds, and vision.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:34 - ID#347447)
Hi Ho
JOSEPHINE: Would that I could spend my day in such pursuits! But I must get ready to greet the projects of the day. All in good time.
Have a great day all!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:37 - ID#57232)
George Cole: The Japanese recently had a run on their insurance companies. A run on the Japanese yen, one of the strongest currencies in the world? How about a run on some world-class Japanese banks, possibly exacerbated by the fact that the Japanese earn little interest on the Yen. I would guess that the most likely scenario is that they will put their money in the US markets and US treasuries, or buy precious metals. I don't think they will raise rates because of the dampening effect on the Japanese market.
The alternative more optimistic scenio is one you also mentioned, that the Japanese markets are bottoming. If they can hold their financial banking system together, this may be the outcome.
Either way, it seems to me, the US markets will probably be positively affected, at least for the short term. The US$ and the markets have alway been the site for a flight to safety, at least for a while ( re: 1929 when the US market got a boost from failing foreign markets ) . Brinksmanship again!

Mike Sheller
(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:37 - ID#347447)
NICK: In your reading - Sorry, meant to say "Neptune in Libra, solar FIFTH" not solar seventh. Sorry. Hope I didn't shake anyone up on that.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:38 - ID#333131)
The dollar and oil both weaker. A wash for gold.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:41 - ID#57232)
Jin : How are things in SE Asia? You are ( literally ) our resident expert! Any idea how stable Japan is? Thanks -- best wishes JTF

Bob M
(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:43 - ID#26059)
Silver is down .83? Is this correct?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:44 - ID#386245)
@"Very popular with the ladies..."
Mike Sheller--my lower jaw is still hangin' down. "Stolid, bullish, hard worker, powerful partyer ( hiccup!!! ) ...unlucky at investment ( that's why I don't invest, I gamble ) but lucky at love ( me and the missus had our 29th anniversary at a swanky hotel coupla days ago ) ,... next to women, you love gold ( my missus is .9999 ) ...very direct when you speak ( know how many times I've been slapped in the face, mate? ) , ...salt of the earth..."

Mike--where do I get a subsription to your newsletter???

PS--If copper goes up big-time from here, mate, I'm gonna put a Mike Sheller statue out in my back yard!!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:46 - ID#257148)
apologisin' for the fax, well...
Mike Sheller, conspiracies of academia?? The man was a mountebank, a charlatan a Fraud, like the others I mentioned like Dawson's Piltdown man, Like a hundred other men who predicted..and refuted...who cobbled together data to prove a point
We can aspire to greater things...
homo sapiens
let's try it

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:54 - ID#364147)
@ Nick(C)+ Aurator
Mornin Mates......Nick: Make that TWO years and almost FOUR months and no wonder ya can't get in that damn kayak----is this what I have to look forward to???---if so maybe I should cash my chips in....Aurator: I see yer dissin ( Carlos ) another my beating GSC: Is that possible??---I ain't stuporman ya know...Am still in morning for my beloved YANKEES who lost last night...sigh....

(Tue Oct 07 1997 07:59 - ID#364147)
@ Nick(C)
Congrats mate...I'm only @ # 17...and counting! Where the hell is Tort?? Tort: Get yer butt back here and post a damn joke to lighten up the gloom that is desending upon us mere mortals as gold resumes its downward spiral...HEEEEELP....

(Tue Oct 07 1997 08:05 - ID#364147)
@ Domino Theory
Just to prove I read somethin besides the sport's section:espite Healthy Fundamentals,
Indonesia Might Need IMF Aid


JAKARTA, Indonesia -- As Indonesia's rupiah
continues to plunge, some economists are starting to
think what until recently would have been the
unthinkable: Indonesia, like Thailand, might need help
from the International Monetary Fund.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 08:07 - ID#206358)
Since i'm not an expert in analysits nor financial line.I 'm just a small gold investors ( retail/whole sale ) in a middle size town. ( border of thailand ) .These are some scenes happened around here:

1 ) malaysia...a bit confused in stock market ( klse ) ,currency weakness ( strongly rebound today ) ,Whole country in edge of the knife,whether in bizness or politic too!The budjet is going to held at 17/10/97,and direct the future economy!Personally,think that the tug of war still going on and on.
2 ) THAILAND...a bit stable this two days,,but the future still unpredictable!so as singapore,philipine,indonesia ( the worst now ) ...still struggle to fight for POLITIC,INTERNAL CONFLICT,CURRENCY,STOCKS,...AND "SMOKE HAZE"!The sentiment around whole region are very VERY NEGATIVE,interm of financial and healthy.To get back to the track,many experts agreed that need longer time to recover,probably 2 years.
3 ) Holding the physical is one of the best investment now!But,the retail/whole sale are bad in my peninsular.Dued to this many investors sell back the gold to the market for the cash!Which they bought before the devalueation of the money!abt nearly 30% diffrence.

Anyway,the life going get tough ,the tough get going!
terima kaseh!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 08:29 - ID#386245)
Tort--where are you??

Did you hear about the failed attempt to start a magazine dedicated to the work of poet e.e. cummings? The project was undercapitalized.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 08:29 - ID#333405)
@still crowing!
Nick. what does one look at in terms of a good local copper play here in oz apart from Western Mining? Any penny dreadfuls? Pleased to see my Dominion options ( DOMO ) up 20% or so today!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 08:41 - ID#333405)
nutters r us
Sollog info. Poor old Pope has a only few days to go!!
Hope he has some sort of clout up there!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 08:41 - ID#386245)
@eating crow
Miles--don't crow until you've sold 'em, mate. Shares ain't worth diddly squat 'till you've sold em and put the proceeds into "real" money. In my younger investment years I bought Dominion and watched while they nearly bloody disappeared!!! Then I figured out what a stop loss/save ass was!!!

Copper--I'd be looking at MIM calls if you've got cajones/faith in Mike Sheller/lot's of money or MIM shares if you want a less risky angle. Their big Argentinian copper mine is coming on stream and they can't mis-manage the company forever, can they?? I'll look out for some cheapo Aussie copper plays and when the statue of Mike Sheller goes up I'll post em.

George Cole
(Tue Oct 07 1997 08:45 - ID#430205)
bear market timing
Nick: Mr. Ackermasn, the author of that article, feels that gold, gold shares, and long-term treasuries will do well if the markets meltdown. I'm not sure about Treasuries, but am quite certain the yellow complex will soar. Remember the Dow/gold ratio now is around 24 versus just 6 just before the 1987 crash.

After much thought I have concluded that no one can hope to predict the exact timing of the looming market meltdown or the precise catalyst that will touch it off. But it will come, and probably before many more moons have passed.

Conventional "bears" expecting a 15% correction and then a resumption of the bull are deluding themselves. When this thing ends, it will be a LONG way down -- probably something like 30-50%. And gold will soar. But only God knows when the unravelling will commence.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 08:46 - ID#26793)
Brazil opening down 1%. I checked Europe an hour ago and it was mostly in the black, now mostly in the red.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 08:49 - ID#333405)
@crows town!!
Nick..Only meant that I'm from Adelaide - winners of THAT cup! I too have watched Dominion as they bounce around - but one day that Nickel deposit HAS to pay off...and then!
Nice pic of Adelaide below. We are the shining star in the middle.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 08:56 - ID#30116)
@Slow Bear
George Cole -- Nice article. More or less what I see at some point. Buy the dips until it doesn't work anymore, eh? Then the monster from the ID comes.. The problem with the gold shares is, as it was explained in the article. If you're not in them, ( for all of the pain you will receive! ) ,you won't be able to 'get on board' at a reasonable price ( profit ) when the time comes. Such a choice, eh?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 08:58 - ID#386245)
@Go the Crows!!!
Miles--great satellite photo!! Looks like they're burning off a lot of sugar up north.

Mike Sheller--Can't pay you the 500,000 in pesos, mate. I can, however, send you a stuffed koala. I think you'll find it's not half as stuffed as the peso!!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 09:16 - ID#261118)
@ Donald'n all
Wasn't it you who said Japan's banks would begin to fail at Nikki 17k? And complete colapse occurs around 15k? What's gonna happen if people here in the next few days start look'in for a door?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 09:17 - ID#258427)
Silver up a penny....ebn...da...dah...

(Tue Oct 07 1997 09:25 - ID#386276)
Globex SP down 150
Nasdaq down 600

Gold chart & analysis at

(Tue Oct 07 1997 09:27 - ID#426220)
Monsters of the ID & George S. Cole
FOR NEW KITCO-ITES: George S. Coles posting of the provocative article BEWARE OF THE ID will eventually prove to be painfully prophetic for those who delude themselves in disbelieving the immutable nature of market cycles. Coles final comment is particularly apropos:

Conventional "bears" expecting a 15% correction and then a resumption of the bull are deluding themselves. When this thing ends, it will be a LONG way down -- probably something like 30-50%. And gold will soar. But only God knows when the unraveling
will commence.

This reminds me of a study I did some time ago, which concurs the looming BEAR MARKET IN STOCKS will be a excruciatingly slow grinding type of the 1973-1974 variety. The study is called GOLD STOCKS AND THE GREAT CRASH OF 1929 REVISITED. In addition to painting the 1929 CRASH in gruesome detail, the study contains a vivid recounting of what happened to common-stocks vis--vis gold mining issues in the 1973-1974 debacle. The entire history may be read at:

For those who have not read it, dare I say it may be hazardous to your financial health IF YOU DO NOT.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 09:30 - ID#364147)
@ capebreton
Pentagon denies rumours that U.S. ship was shot at in the Pershian Gulf ( reason talkin heads gave for S+P futures turn-a-round ( to the downside ) about an hour ago ) ...Mornin Panda! There's the opening bell..

(Tue Oct 07 1997 09:44 - ID#354133)
Cool - The rumor is true... Kitco is alive again. Anything happen in the two weeks I was "out"?

I've noticed in my travels that activity around some the military bases has picked up a little, what with all the rumblings in the mid-East. I don't see it as a major sign of upcoming "actions", however. My take is that Klinton needs something international/military to boost his "leadership" profile for the U.S. folks. This would detract them from his troubles at home.

EB, I see gold is slightly higher... platinum is lower... buy, sell or sit on the sidelines? What are your DMs doing?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 09:52 - ID#348286)
George Cole: Thanks for the great article. The only thing I would change is the 30 to 50 %. When this financial quagmire begins to unravel, there is no telling where it will end. Margins, liquidity and leverage problems will cause the final downturn to be explosive.
Meanwhile the party goes on.........

(Tue Oct 07 1997 09:55 - ID#426220)
Homestake Mining Will Reach New All Time Heights... - bb fisher
Internationally acclaimed Technical Analyst has performed another insightful study destined to be called THE Homestake Mining Prophecy. His analysis exudes incisive thinking, and is expressed with great clarity:

(Tue Oct 07 1997 10:01 - ID#386276)
This particular forecast recommended gold and silver as the buys of the century.

Year 2000: Don't Save Confederate Money, Buy T-Bills if You Fear Computer Chaos

September 29, 1997 -- I recently received an article discussing the danger of the year 2000 problem facing mainframe computer operators. Many of you probably are already familiar with this concern: that much of the software written for mainframe computers is unable to differentiate between the year 1900 and the year 2000 and therefore will be unable to tell when we have reached the end of the century. Various catastrophic scenarios have been put forth envisaging the end of commerce as we know it. Airline reservation systems, stock settlement software, purchasing software and IRS records will all be garbled and business systems everywhere will grind to a halt.

Obviously this is a problem for which billions of dollars and much manpower is already being spent. And let me be the first to say that I do not have any certain opinion on what will happen in the year 2000 to the various programs subject to failure. I do, however, have an opinion on what not to do.

The article in question pointed out that even if companies in the U.S. have the good fortune to prepare for the coming of y2k, as this problem has been dubbed, this was little comfort. The fact that we are a global economy relying on the effective commerce of trading partners around the world will still mean catastrophe for U.S. investors. This particular forecast recommended gold and silver as the buys of the century. The author did have the grace to suggest that no pun be intended.

During my earliest days as an economist at Citibank the president, George Moore, asked me to meet with the policy committee to discuss global economic events. When I came to the meeting I was told that a very senior officer of the bank was convinced that an economic catastrophe of global proportions was about to take place. He insisted that the bank sell all its securities and go to U.S. T-bills immediately. The policy committee wanted my opinion on this thought.

I said, "Suppose on of the tellers downstairs cleaned our his cash drawer on Friday afternoon and then went to the racetrack. Suppose that he then bet the money on a sure this, which in fact wins. On Monday morning he comes into the bank and replaces the cash in the drawer. No loss to the bank. How would you feel about this teller?"

The bank, of course did not sell all its securities and the global catastrophe did not happen.

Precious metals are often viewed as insurance against market calamities. Viewed from that perspective, they are costly insurance. Gold has consistently underperformed almost every asset class over the last 20 years. And while there may be cause for concern about the 2yk problem, buying gold is not likely to be an answer. If one is truly concerned that this problem will cause disruptions in a large portion of the computer mainframe business sectors, perhaps moving to a lower equity exposure with more treasuries is called for. There may be additional opportunities in companies that are working non-stop to fix this problem.

It is rare that a global catastrophe strikes financial markets. Within this century the most serious catastrophes the hit financial markets were the world wars and the Great Depression of the 1930s. The latter event was the direct effect of misguided monetary policy conducted by the Federal Reserve at the time. Even the stock market drop of 1987 can hardly be seen on a long-term Dow chart.

Keep in mind that it is possible to be too conservative in investments.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 10:06 - ID#364147)
@ laying my cards on the table
Just sold another stock and in the past six weeks have now sold 50% of "paper portfolio" with another 10% ( WEC ) slated for the burial heap..."Cash" will be KING.......someday...The remaining 40% will stay in DRIP.....drip drip drip....Time for shopping trip in Sydney and maybe ( ? ) a brief stop-over @ the CASINO...

(Tue Oct 07 1997 10:10 - ID#30116)
TED -- Good morning! Now if the Dow can break 8115, maybe we could make some money somewhere in this market! It's getting so a person can't make a buck no matter what! The alternative is,... a four letter word, WORK! Be in and out today. BBL.

Spud Master
(Tue Oct 07 1997 10:25 - ID#273112)
bet on it....
Gunrunner - no doubt of it: if Klinton gets into a full-blown Watergate ( i.e. the evidence is so *obvious* and *damning* that even the American bought-off press has to act - I have no doubt we'll "suddenly" have an international shooting war. We would be seriously mistaken to believe that our "leaders" are any better than that cheesy gang running Argentina prior to their instigation of the Falkland Islands war to divert Argentinian attention from the absolute balls-up the Argentinian hunta had effected on their economy. This is an old, reliable scam - wrap yourself in the flag.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 10:30 - ID#318321)
Everyone, remember that commercial where there is a baren landscape and there are thousands of guys in business suits running in a herd. That is the image I get when I think about gold stocks once technology and dow stocks tank. My concern is that the run up will be steep and quick. The down side will also be quick and steep. My additional concern is that I won't sell anywhere near the top, or the top won't make to where my analysis shows it will be. Maybe we could talk about indentifying a gold peak in our upcoming gold bull market.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 10:40 - ID#386276)
Free company data and news on all major ASX gold stocks plus the others at:

Rivkin is a good Oz discount broker reviewed in article on:
'Investing online: a glimpse of the future'

(Tue Oct 07 1997 10:49 - ID#57232)
JIN: I appreciate your frankness. Your words are an education to us - because they show what is actually happening. What is happening to you could happen to any of us at Kitco. Your point on holding physical gold is a good one for all of us to remember -- if you've got some -- no matter what happens, you've still got something afterwards. Not necessarily with gold stocks, but still better than non-precious metal stocks. I find your comments about investors selling gold at a 30% profit interesting -- I guess the thing to remember is that during a crisis, one must sell any assets for cash -- even the gold.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 10:58 - ID#57232)
gunrunner: Your comments about no real military activity - re: Middle East sound reasonable. Our president Clinton is far more likely to move the Nimitz for political reasons, than for military ones. As I recall, the Iranian planes are long gone from Iraqi air space. Hope our ships are well protected from those little - but deadly - Iranian speed boats that ran circles around our destroyers not so long ago.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 10:59 - ID#386276)
Quite a few articles on 87 tank in Personal Investment

'There's a scent of bear in the air'
'Surviving the morning after'
'Ten years after the fall'
'Safety in these numbers'
'Flying tigers brought back to earth'

(Tue Oct 07 1997 11:03 - ID#227238)
George Cole: Thanks for that interesting article. A bit unusual for public consumption; don't you think? ..... It was not meant for wider distribution though; I got a total system hangup on the print routine and had to reboot. Must have had something to do with the thought that the blue chips will ultimately be savaged in the downward course of events. .... My brother ( he of the "muddle through" school of thought ) will just have to remain clueless and muddle through.

Additionally, continue pay no heed to the "rheumy eyed" critters under the rocks. They seek the Grail, as we all do. The difference is, they wish for it to be handed them in full form. When it isn't, they are conditioned to be more disappointed in others than themselves. It's of no matter, idle criticizm from non-contributors, will always be just part of the price of spirited debate and the expression of personal opinion.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 11:25 - ID#426220)
The major problem facing the EMU caused the Bretton Woods Agreement ( Gold Standard ) to fail. Medium to long-term GOLD WILL BE the greatest single beneficiary of the EMU:

(Tue Oct 07 1997 11:25 - ID#386276)
Shots fired at U.N. convoy in northern Iraq.

George Cole
(Tue Oct 07 1997 11:37 - ID#430205)
December gold down 60 cents, XAU flat. But low volume suggests the XAU will go lower before turning up again. Still looking for 103-105.

George Cole
(Tue Oct 07 1997 11:44 - ID#430205)
Jerry Favors
Looks like Jerry Favors has joined the long list of people ( myself included ) who were roo early in calling a top. There still is a chance that the August Dow Jones peak will hold, but I would place the odds at no more than one in three.

8500 in October, 6500 by January? Could happen.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 11:48 - ID#386276)
Sollog's new site

(Tue Oct 07 1997 11:51 - ID#391195)
@home...sick with the crud...
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD....I recently read "At The Crest"....It is quite shocking if you take everything literally....You can visit his home page where he answers questions to keep up with his latest thoughts...

(Tue Oct 07 1997 11:57 - ID#391195)
@home....sick with the crud...
TED....AHOY, MATE....Are you ready to claim the gold of Scaterie ????

(Tue Oct 07 1997 12:00 - ID#316232)
XAU/gold ratio
DONALD.. After computing the XAU/gold ratio, I suggest you compute the change in this ratio over a short period of time as another indicator. As the market advances, XAU quickly outpaces gold and the ratio increases, therefore, if the change is negative, don't buy. Some of my indicators are buy or sell signals, but many are also 'don't buy under any conditions, dummy' signals.

Strad Master
(Tue Oct 07 1997 12:03 - ID#250297)
ALL: Just got back from Sollog's site. Gotta hand it to him, he's not lacking for self-esteem. Calls himslf "the God of Gods"! ( Wonder if he's a product of the "self-esteem" classes in the LA School System? The kids kant reed or spel, but tha sur think gud of themselfs! ) At least his predictions are testable - 9 more days for the Pope and a mere 37 for ol' Billy. This ought to be really interesting. Seems every year around this time Kitco gets into a fascinating discussion about some crackpot psychic stuff. Last year was "remote viewing" ( Anybody remember Moshe, who posted his likns to 10,000 remote viewing and Hale-Bopp Comet sites? Wonder if he went along for the Heaven's Gate ride? ) Anyway, I'm off to check the map to see just how close Mt. Lassen is to LA. I may soon have to be saying my "goodbyes" to all Kitcoites since I'm about to get blown off the face of the earth when LA gets destroyed by a volcano! Sheesh! What next? ( Of course, if the Pope and Clinton get offed by Mr. Sollog ( God of Gods that he is ) in the next 9 and 37 days respectively, I may have to rethink this. )

Crystal Ball
(Tue Oct 07 1997 12:17 - ID#287367)
The ether
Nick, yours of Oct 07 1997 08:29 is a beauty !!!
I miss Tort too. This is dedicated to Tort - -

This frog was really down on his luck.
All he had left in the world was this little
ceramic figurine his mother had willed him
when she croaked.
So he decided he'd go to the bank and get a loan
so he could improve his lot in life.
He wrapped up the figurine and hopped on down
to the local bank.
When he got to the bank, the bank receptionist
directed him to a loan officer by the name of
Mr. Paddywack.
Mr. Paddywack took one look at the frog and
knew his day was ruined. "Ok, he said, what can
I do for you?"
"Well, I'd like a small loan," the frog said,
"So I can get back on my feet."
"We don't usually loan money to frogs,"
Paddywack said. "Do you have anything in the
way of collateral?"
The frog held up the figurine and said, "Well,
I have this."
Paddywack rolled his eyes and said, "I'm going to
have to ask my manager."
He went to find the manager, and told him, "You're
not going to believe this. There's this frog out
here, who wants money. He has this," he holds
up the figurine, "for collateral. Have you ever
heard of something so dumb?"
The manager scowled at him and said, "For God's sake,
it's a knicknack, Paddywack, give the frog a loan!"

(Tue Oct 07 1997 12:41 - ID#257114)
Check out daily bollinger band analysis on GCZ,SIZ,and CLX. There will be a little jockeying around here before they all resume uptrends. If not then I will never use technical analysis again. Buy coins as well as gold
shares. Go Canyon Resources -- Fundamentally solid and profitable.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 12:47 - ID#194311)
Pump Up The Volume
The largest discount brokers are waging a price war on the Internet.
Fidelity Investments announced Monday it will charge as little as $14.95
for stock trades by most active clients. Quick & Reilly, ETrade Group
and AmeriTrade have also announced price cuts under various discount
plans. Analysts say on-line trading is the fastest-growing part of the
brokerage business.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 12:49 - ID#194311)
House of (electronic) Cards
Technical glitch causes panic in Southeast Asian currency markets

SINGAPORE, Oct 7 ( AFP ) - Foreign exchange market players
panicked and dumped the US dollar against Southeast Asian currencies
Tuesday following a technical glitch by a financial news agency,
dealers said.
Reuters news agency had released two sets of quotes for the US
dollar -- instead of the usual one -- against the Malaysian ringgit,
Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso and Singapore dollar, sparking
fears of an imposition of foreign exchange controls in the three
countries, they said.
"It was a technical hitch on our main Asian foreign exchange
display generated from a computer based in London which ended up
displaying more than one consolidated quote for each of the four
currencies," Miyuki Suzuki, Singapore-based managing director of
Reuters Southeast Asia, told AFP.
She said the error occurred overnight and "so we removed the
ringgit, rupiah and peso from the diplay at 0130 GMT and corrected
the Singapore dollar quotes from the display at the same time."
"The full Asian forex display which reflects the global
consolidated contribution was restored at 0310 GMT," Suzuki said.
A dealer with a European financial house said "the double quotes
by Reuters news agency spooked the market because people thought
that central banks across the region has imposed capital controls.
People started dumping the US dollar."
Only Thailand has a two-tier exchange system for its currency,
adopted to block the baht's supply for speculators. Traders get two
quotes for the baht -- an offshore rate and onshore rate against the
US dollar.
Under the system aimed at ensuring funding for genuine borrowers
in the domestic market, baht supply is restricted for the offshore
market to prevent short selling of the Thai currency.
Dealers said that when the financial news agency displayed
offshore and onshore quotes for the four currencies on Tuesday, they
thought the two-tier foreign exchange market had been extended in
Southeast Asia.
"The glitch today was also an excuse for people long on the US
dollar against the regionals to take profit," said Jimmy Koh,
regional economist with London-based financial house I.D.E.A.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:00 - ID#194311)
Currency Trading out of Control
It's not markets it's just logisitics. We have $1 trillion dollars a day changing hands where only about %10 are actual trade tansactions, the rest is speculative.
The bankers acknowledge the problem and are hurriedly setting up an electronic clearing house of sorts ( see BIS site ) . But it will take only one country to say the buck stops here ( Dr. Mahatmir perhaps ) and an electronic glitch will be the least of there worries. Imagine all the trading countries in the world chasing after $1 trillion that was only a figment of their imagination to begin begins to look pretty safe. This is not doom and glooming it is logistics and a cautious reality.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:05 - ID#26793)
Larryn: Did you look at the other XAU chart? Byron pointed this one out to me some tome ago. This is a reverse of our recent work. The formula is Spot/XAU, so the reading last night would be 3.12. ( 332.60/106.57 ) Notice what happens each time the blue line touches the red line. This chart gives you a good idea of the direction of the trend and might work well along with ours. Here is the site

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:05 - ID#257114)
My day of glory will come when the US equity market declines and the real value "Gold and Silver" rises beyond disbelief. The icing on the cake will come when I see Prechter on CNBC with a smile saying "I told you so." I am convinced that day will come.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:09 - ID#426220)
Acclaimed Compuserve Gold & Silver King has returned from the North Woods to share his considerable wisdom. Hes found a pure silver play worth watching:

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:21 - ID#252312)
Kiwi: Disturbing posts on derivatives. Any idea how one could estimate derivative risk with an indicator? I have passed a few ideas out the Kitcoites, but got no takers. I know too little about derivatives to do this on my own, but I good at programming my computer if I know what to do.

My best working idead so far is - for the US$

( total derivative volume in dollars ) / ( total dollars in circulation )

The denominator could equally well be the dollar index. The volatility index ( COMEX ) might be useful, but I don't think this directly measures risk. Any ideas? I'm getting more and more nervous -- and may bail out completely -- even gold stocks, oil and defense.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:23 - ID#259160)
To All...CEF ( Central Fund of Canada ) is 6% discount to market value.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:24 - ID#246224)
Strad - Lasen is in northern Ca. about ( guess ) 600+ miles from LA. You do not have anything to worry about. Considering the amount of energy that would need to be released to affect LA from such a distant site you might as well call it the biggest nuclear blast in history. Obviously this guy is talking to his followers in making such predictions. They will either do one of two things: leave after his prophecies prove false or stay on believing in him even more. This will weed out the slightly less committed from his ranks and allow him to do anyhting to the remainder without concern of their complaint. This dissonance between reality and the pronouncements of the guru will force those who want to believe into throwing away all means of their own self respect and cause them to be almost completely enslaved to him. Since he calls himself 'god of gods' I suppose he can do what ever he wants to do to those who place themselves under his care. As for the remainder of us, we will watch in revulsion when destruction hits them ( Japan guru - terroism, comet riders - suicide, Waco - armed and dangerous, etc ) .

Donald - thanks for the posts. Helping to fatten my files.

Ambling ramblings - I'm not so much interested in the moment by moment fluxuations in prices as I am in the mid to long term. I'm no commodities guy. What interests me is the systemic or architectural aspect. Indeed if you build a rotten structure you'll eventually see it disintegrate. There is a test done to materials, such as steel, which measures the failure under different stresses. I'm thinking of lateral stress on a bar. At a certain point the bar will snap. The greater the rigidity of the material the quicker and more abrupt the failure will be. Copper tends to simply stretch till it breaks. Steel tends to fracture. One of the reasons for doing these tests; because you want to know the load and stress handling characteristics before you engineer or build a structure. It seems that often we are in a mindset of betting just exactly WHEN the fracture will occur. This is one of the reasons I like the more general approach that GSC does, giving parameters and points of reference rather than setting a date. In our various ruminations we have been discovering the structure and some of its materials and stresses. The substance of this hasn't changed since many years ago. Insightful persons then were warning others that this foolisness was no basis for a *long term, general prosperity* ( of course some very intellegent and quick footed individualls such as LGB, RJ and others have made real profits from this system ) . There will be a day, and it comes closer with every passing day, that this 'bar' will fracture. We can intuit that the degree of catastrophic failure will be proportional to its length in coming ( the longer the stress increases without failure the quicker and more frightening will be its release ) . As George has pointed out '87 DOW/Gold ratio was 6. Now the stressors are at 24+. It may well be that this fracture slows down into a stretch ( bear market ) or a crash ( sudden breakage ) for our dear market. But looking more globally we are already seeing that this global economic structure is disintegrating and will fall into a heap. Asia is our fracture point. They have entered the point of no return or 'death spiral'. It has been a leisurely, curving descent: now we are hearing -%GDP. They have been our precursors. Fractures start with microscopic cracks that cascade into macro failures.

It will happen. It is happening. Unfortunately our sense of time prevents us from seeing this as a process of catastrophic break down. It is so none the less.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:30 - ID#57232)
@internet brokers
Kiwi- Interesting post on Fidelity. I have had generally good luck trading with them. I just transferred my Schwab account from regular Schwab - to internet E-Schwab. What a mistake -- my money disappeared for several weeks, and I still can't trade options! I have made about twenty phone calls, with partial success. Never had a problem like this with fideility, and fidelity tapes all verbal transactions, and adds a confirmation number. When I talk to Schwab I don't get this kind of service, and the people I talk to have markedly varying levels of experience. I guess Schwab doesn't want to make money.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:31 - ID#252132)
Poof One Gap:
XAU daily chart gap is now closed. Now sitting here patiently waiting for the Dec Comex Futures gap to close. Will someone please ring a bell when it happens.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:35 - ID#263259)
Bernie: Maybe they know something we don't know. Why is it discounted so much?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:39 - ID#57232)
@prophesy -- who to trust
Allen ( USA ) : Your statments about Mt Lassen agree with my impression. Sollog is way off base on Mt Lassen wiping out LA. I doubt Mt Lassen would do what Mt Mazama did when it formed Crater lake millions of years ago. If so, most of the Northwest, not just LA would be gone! Sollog needs to read up on the kinds of natural disasters that have already happened. Many megatons as you say! Isn't it interesting that Sollog's riddles have been deciphered, but only after he moves into seclusion, perhaps to avoid the consequences if his prophesies fail to come true. Doesn' the Pope have only one week left?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:41 - ID#257114)
But will CEF ever move Bernie? I can't take it anymore. I called and got
info on the fund and it's a great potential investment.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:50 - ID#251147)

The Dec gold futures gap will be closed at 330.9. That's your bell.

Also, By any chance do you see that the XAU has completed a "C" wave and is now ready to blast off?

Do you see see a XAU gap at around 98?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 13:53 - ID#257114)
You better be right about the XAU jkdfgl. It better blast off soon. This time it certainly feels that way.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:00 - ID#57232)
Allen ( USA ) : I failed to read the rest of your post. Your analogy with structural steel and the market hit home. I agree with you that we are critically close to fracture. The dow/gold indicator gives us some confidence that there will be a flight to gold and gold stocks during the crisis, as this happened in 1929 and 1937. The problem is that gold stocks tanked in 1987. One can argue that this time they won't, because of the fact that the Dow/gold ratio is more favorable. However, what really worries me is that any equity stocks are likely to crash, even gold stocks. This is why I have been looking for a "paper" implosion indicator. After reading your post I am strongly tempted to stop guessing what will happen, and pull all my money from the market, not just part of it. As you say, there is no way to know exactly when the wing will fall off -- one can only see trends.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:03 - ID#348129)
Al: You are correct, that day will come, and sooner not later.
History and human nature has always repeated itself, and this time is no different. This is a greed driven market, and it is lasting longer than normal, and will also fall harder than normal.
The historical prominence of Gold will not be erased by an army
of BMW driving hot shot equities traders and analysts.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:17 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Wherever this leg down in gold ends is about when I pile back on. I'm thinking no later than 9:30-10:00 EST tomorrow morning. I do not necessarily believe the gap needs to be filled, but Dec only needs to go to 331 to do so. That's what I'll be looking for. Probably will be brief. It is now very near time for some more upside! BIGGER upside!

Looks like my OJ call didn't quite make it off the ground yet. But it ain't broke yet neither! When it starts poking its head out just a little bit, it'll be poking out a lot!

Grains beating all my short term expectations! MAN!

Dec Live cattle for you steak lovers out there? Lookin' for tomorrow or early Thursday for at least a short term turn. My sights are near 65 on the Dec contract.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:25 - ID#255123)
@Amber Fields
Golden move in grains today...anyone heard what's going on?? China??

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:30 - ID#57232)
Larryn, Donald: Didn't see the XAU/gold posts till now. Larryn, I think you are referring to dermining the relative strength of the XAU/gold indicator relative to some other indicator. This is not hard to do with my software, but I'm not sure what the relative strength should be in reference to. XAU/gold indicates how much investors place a premium on buying gold stocks as a substitute for gold, and how much of a "flight to gold" there is, because gold stocks tend to go up several times faster than gold. I'm not sure we can improve on this indicator by doing a relative strength calculation.
My real conceptual problem is that a total market collapse ( Allens critical failure post ) will probably bring down all "paper" assets, even gold stocks -- only gold bullion is really safe, as "Big Trader" once said. After the collapse, gold stocks will really be a bargain for those who kept their powder dry. The only problem is guessing on the when. This year, or in 1999, or? Never underestimate the US stock market to go on inexorably and fool all the experts, only to crash when least expected. Those baby boomers have not yet thrown in the towel.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:35 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Dale -- Danged if I know! Danged if I care. They'll make something up. All 'news' is written in the price long before you'll hear about it. WATCH the prices! Watch the breakouts! They'll either go or not, but they will tell you if they won't.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:40 - ID#257114)
Perfectly put Eldorado. It's amazing that most people don't understand

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:42 - ID#346140)
Computer sold all Gold related shares at 10:00 am today.
Keeping an eye on Oct 14 thru 17th - TTFN

$ 22956
(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:45 - ID#2082)
And whose that baggin' on Carlos ( with no tilde ) Castaneda? Was that chatter from Down-Under? M.S. you're 7:31 was a jewel...printed

Ted - Truly sorry about that Yankee trouncing...NOT! The indians have Bip Roberts... ( from the Padres, originally ) and a SLEW of other GOOD players...and the Brothers Alomar will be set against each other. Who will Dad root for? And yet the O's are strong too...we shall see...GO MARLINS!

Gunny - Welcome home. Platinum-buy soon or NOW if you wish ( RJ will take it under 415...sounds good to me! ) . Who am I to bump heads with Irvine-Boy Gold - well I can't argue against his ( I.B. ) stance on that one either. NOW - DMark...Oh my baby DMark. I bought 4 Naked;- ) Calls 5800-DMZ7 Aug11 at 26pts ( 26x12.50=312.50x4=1,250 ) . ( My broker-Dude Loves ( 50roundturn ) me and doesn't ask questions anymore ) . Before two weeks I had sold for 75pts ( 75x12.50=937.50x4=3,750.00-1,250.00-200.00=NET $2,300 ) in TW weeks... I've been buying back in at the Dipos and selling calls for a few of those delicious 'freee-trades'. Fundamentals looking more favorable for Germany than Japan. I'll go with the Krautties ( in good humor for the sensitive ones ) . I would Love to tell you about the en but some here don't like Boastfulness ( sp? ) and the 'big-boys' chuckle at my 'small-stuff'. So suffice to say that What's 161pts. in the en? ;-0 I didn't get all of that but you can build a picture...How many Glocks can that buy? I still have some en positions ( debit-spreads ) and will buy somemore Real soon...h M! Keep eyes on the . It was up near 98ticks today, that's always fun too but it is only half the contract. Damn, dude! I'm gettin' mysel all excited! the races

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:47 - ID#252132)
@To jkdfgl,a AKA 251147
Besides the small gap at 98 there is another small gap at 95 on the XAU Daily. Do not believe these will be filled. Don't use E-wave analysis although I enjoy reading the analysis of some who specialize in it. I'm a position player of gold shares. Willing to go long or short. My reading is that we still have several more weeks to run on this bull more in gold and gold shares before some sort of correction. ( IMHO ) .

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:47 - ID#335184)
@for u
LONDON, Oct 7 ( Reuter ) - Gold prices edged slightly higher on Tuesday afternoon but there was little sign of momentum.

Trading was light but dealers noted that support was holding at around $331.00 per ounce where buying had held the downside.

Bullion fixed at $331.95 after $331.50 in the morning and $332.50 on Monday afternoon.

At the bullion fixing the December futures contract on New York's Comex exchange was down $0.60 at $334.00.

A slight slip by the dollar against the mark might have accounted for some of the support gold received when it slipped to its low of the day so far at around $331.10.

``There is nothing going on and nothing to guide the marker. But the sense is that it wants to try lower,'' one dealer said.

Currently, lower would probably mean sucking in some support at around $328.00.

Dealers said the London Metal Exchange dinner tonight and attendant festivities through the rest of the week were likely to limit market activity to a somewhat ruminative level.

Prices rallied to a three-month high of $339.35 last week, spurred by covering against options and short covering as the market mood changed up a tone from extremely bearish.

However, the 200-day moving average, then at $340.00, was a formidable resistance.

Some technical analysts said the intensity of the long-term moving average as a resistance would diminish as it drifted towards the spot price.

It was down to $339.21 on Monday and providing an upward signal for the price, one analyst said.

Vulnerability from producers selling forward into a weakening price was more significant now that many short positions have been covered, he said.

U.S. October 4 jobless claims due on Thursday ( 1230 GMT ) were forecast to be within recent trends, economists said.

Silver pulled up to level at $5.21/$5.23 from opening five cents lower but was not looking any more positive than gold.

``The trouble is these are rallies in bear markets,'' one dealer said.

Silver has disappointed after looking technically best served for a rally.

Platinum and palladium were a little firmer at $424.00/$426.00 up $1.50 and $194.75/$196.75 up $2.25 respectively as dealers expressed doubts about Russia's 1998 supply motives.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:52 - ID#273227)
Strad 03:04 -

Can you expand on your post to RJ? No more silver supplies left? Are
you saying that someone has cornered silver?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:53 - ID#255123)
Eldorado: I hear ya ( tho' I still like to know what [seems] to be going on ) . And man, I hope you are right about the yellow metal too... Ciao.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:54 - ID#2082)
HOG-WASH! predict my next 5 hours...maybe

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:58 - ID#364147)
@ mean EB
EB: Just in the door and noticed your "straight from the heart"condolences about my beloved Yankees....and I see we finally agree about a sports team-----Go Marlins!....and go Indians! I see paper is up and the XAU is down----what the hell else is!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 14:59 - ID#30116)
JTF -- I use e.schwab with the Internet 'stuff' too. I have opened another account sometime ago with another broker. It's a question of moving funds here, there, and everywhere! ( As in, "They're coming to take me away to the funny farm, where life is always pleasant..." )

I have had more than my share of problems with Schwab. Take your pick, bad fills, bad executions ( ESPECIALLY WITH OPTIONS ) , to just plain screwed up trades. I had a boxed position once ( This is a position where you are 'shorted against the box' ) , I tried to close it. I thought I did, but they thought something else! My question to them was, "How am I supposed to explain closing a boxed position throug e.Schwab?" I simply bought to cover the short and sold the long position. They saw it as me buying more stock and going short???? Needles to say, it took talking to a live person to straighten this out. What caused the live person to talk to me? It was an E-mail that I sent to them questioning the HUGE margin interest that I was accumulating everyday! Talk about the national debt! You are not alone JTF!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 15:01 - ID#2082)
Before I go...away
Kuston - I was playing with the great-big-titanium-bertha the other day.

HOLY-COW! 275-300 barely swingin' ( I'm also a 'young' 35 ) was Sweet! But the tag is $360.00. For a stick with a big end...hmmmmmmmm... save my pennies

(Tue Oct 07 1997 15:06 - ID#2082)
Hed...uh...i mean Ted
Yuk. Yuk. Go Marlins! Go Indians! Go Platinum! Go to WORK! make little ones from big ones

(Tue Oct 07 1997 15:12 - ID#333131)
Donald, There is something truly weird about the chart you posted at 13:05. Your observation that when the ratio equals the XAU then the ratio rises, intrigued me so I did a little investigation. You realize of course that the chart had to be set up to demonstrate that very fact because the two ordinate scales are arbitrarily set ( with reference to each other ) . But what this tells us is truly mystifying. The scales are set so that XAU = 210-25R. Because of the observation you made that when the two lines touch, R rises, we may characterize that "touching" as when XAU = 210 - 25R, then R rises. This is truly weird if not wonderful.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 15:16 - ID#57232)
To all: Did anyone notice that the NYSE and NASDAQ are making new highs? Already past the Aug 8 peak. Only the DOW is lingering. I have been guilty of being too focused on precious metals. The US market looks like it has shaken off the SE Asia crisis for now -- unless some unforseen new catastrophe materialises. Perhaps that inevitable catastrophe we all are worrying about will be postponed. Perhaps a derivative risk indicator still has some value. Comments? -- Am I the only one who missed this -- note also the dropping interest rates -- which bodes well for a market upturn. Of course, this does not rule out a gold rally -- just makes an imminent market crash less likely.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 15:19 - ID#426220)
LBMA EXPOS: PART 5 (October 7, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis Compiled by Red Baron
London Bullion Marketing Association is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading NEARLY TWICE South Africas annual Gold Mine production:

(Tue Oct 07 1997 15:20 - ID#364147)
Any news out on CDE??? It's down 1 @ 14.5...ELF: Hope ya already sold! Nailz: Sorry ta hear yer under the still planing another Scaterie Island "trip" in the near future...

(Tue Oct 07 1997 15:27 - ID#32078)
XAU chart
Donald, JTF, Thanks for the reminder. I have often refered to YAuger's site in the past for his comments. I use the Gold/XAU ratio as you mentioned because it gives a number over 1, much easier to work with.

JTF.. I was refering in my post to analyzing the movement of the gold/XAU number by itself. As an ex-engineer programmer, I analyze data as position, velocity ( change of position over time ) and acceleration ( change of velocity over time ) . In other words, I determine exponentially weighted 10 and 30 day averages, subtract todays value from the average to give a crude velocity and then graph the velocities to determine the latest change in velocity to provide acceleration. It's not as difficult as it may sound and sometimes you can see a turn coming. I do the same for silver, but it is highly unreliable.

According to my numbers, the gold/XAU is in a positive trend ( bad for gold ) and much nearer an overbought condition than an oversold condition. By itself it is saying not to buy unless XAU makes a solid reversal up. Of course, it is only a general trend indicator and must be supported by other signs.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 15:50 - ID#333131)
Donald, Correction of post at 15:12: When lines touch, then XAU decreases, Not "ratio rises".

(Tue Oct 07 1997 15:53 - ID#346140)
re 15:27;

On your f' ( velocity ) and f'' ( accelleration ) - any particular reason for selecting 10 and 30 day ma's? Do you include only trading days or "weekends and holidays" as well in your datasets?
Have you attempted to add a z axis for volume considerations? ( would kind of make it a tubular 3d graph ) . :o
Just curious, thanks.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 15:55 - ID#57232)
Larryn: Interesting analytical concepts. How do your parameters compare to first and second derivatives. This I can understand better!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 15:57 - ID#194225)
@the edge
Great Central, Euro-Nevada, Franco-Nevada, even Getchell all up on an AU down day. Domolky you are a genius.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 16:25 - ID#252132)
@ Raising The Flag:
Any Flag Resources fans out there. Some news came out at the SI site. Any comments????

(Tue Oct 07 1997 16:30 - ID#81288)
For all you technically inclined with a Java-enabled browser: you can watch ratios ( such as GC7Z vs. XAU.X ) in near real-time at Just type in the following in the SYMBOL box: GC7Z /XAU.X There is a space between the Z and the slash, but not between the slash and the X. I set the interval to 6 minutes ( type: GC7Z /XAU.X,6 ) but anything will work from 1 to ???. D is daily, W is weekly, etc. You can also use any stock, commodity, or even option symbol ( with or without the dot prefix, i.e. XAUAX or .XAUAX ) . The system can also compute the difference, just substitute the minus sign for the slash. Cool way to track erosion of option premiums, for example. ( ABXAX -ABXAV,D ) Lemme know what you think.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 16:30 - ID#364147)
CDE down 1 5/16 @ 14 3/16 on heavy volume ( 640,200 ) What's up??? certainly NOT CDE....Tort: SAY SOMETHIN!

Spud Master
(Tue Oct 07 1997 16:34 - ID#273112)
silver, silver...
on the other hand, Ted, SSC was up 1/16. Curious, isn't it? Someone knows something about silver & is playing games. Meanwhile, as you say, CDE & HL, silver biggies flop over limply.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 16:36 - ID#246224)
JTF - RE: Lassen, I think Sollog's main aim is to control his groupies.

JTF - RE: Fracture, I believe 'cash' is the only safe route since it seems that the break down will be ( IMVHO ) in a blinding flash. Even if you guessed correctly about when and where to short, you'd have no system to remove your "money" from. This is a very immoderate stance. But it is not one motivated by fear. Public comment has been made in the media by voices who do not post on Kitco ( but, of course, I'm sure they lurk :- ) ) which acknowledge and ponder the fragility of the entire system. I think Warren Buffet going to bonds is very significant. I think Volker's voice rising from the ranks of the retired ( posted this morning ) is a very strong indicator. Greenspan's triple declaration of the CB role in money creation in defense of economies, etc is simply unprecedentedly candid and clear. We are hearing these powers signal their peers that it is time to find the high ground and get ready for the bad old days ahead. By 'cash' I mean value not in the system of paper or electrons: PMs, some green-backs ( enough to deal with living expenses, debts, etc ) . I don't go for guns. I believe they are a trap. If you look as poor as everyone else then who would know? It may never get that bad anyway. But even if this stance is a bit extreme, and the vision of a economy in shambles is over-wrought a person will still be able to re-enter after the smoke clears and things look more reasonable.

Just to say it out loud .. what is the investment at this point to being a "matress stuffer"? Really, who doesn't see at least a 10-15% decline in this market at some point in the near future? If one likes to see a multiple of risk to reward of say 1:2 or 1:3 then you'd need to show that they was an upside potential of 20 to 45% to justify even being in the markets at all. Whose going to say that they see the DOW going up to 10,500 ( 30% ) in the next three months? OK, there's ONE. Him against all the insiders who are selling. HA, HA, HA. How stupid those insiders are. If you have cash you can always buy back in.

AL - RE: Gold is a lousy investment over the long haul. It seems that at the very bottom of every bear market the chorus always sings this song. Equities were dead ( 1982 ) . Bonds were dead ( 19.. somone help me with this one ) . Gold was dead ( 1971 ) . There is a time to gather and a time to scatter. A time to sow and a time to reap. Nimble, nimble, nimble. Keep moving to the latest stage where the chorus keeps singing that song. And make your tiddy profits ..

GSC - One thing I appreciate about the DOW/gold & XAU/Gold ( or visa versa ) ratio is their elimination of currencies as a factor. Since these ratios use gold as the standard of value, I believe, they are much less fool-able as measures. Great tools!!! What other ones are you dreaming up? Saw the CrudeOil/Gold ratio and that looks darling too. Maybe we can develop a 'control panel' of indicators with which to fly our little investment airplanes ( better than the signals we get from the air control towers ) .

(Tue Oct 07 1997 16:44 - ID#246224)
2nd para ".. investment *risk* of being.."

AL*L* - RE: gold as a lousy ..

Fingers gotta work better someday.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 16:49 - ID#259160)
Complicated Site
Bart....Been away for a while, what have you done to this site! I used to be able to load three days, get off the net and read and then add comments later. Please go back to old format. What happened to "search comming in August"?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 16:53 - ID#57232)
Larryn: I should read more carefully before posting. I assume your velocity is the first derivative, and the acceleration the second derivative. I have attempted to use indicators such as these, only to fall prey to needing a number of data points for the first derivative, thus weakening its time value. The situation for the second derivative is worse. I gather you get around this problem with an exponential moving average. How do you optimize this so that the first and second derivatives are not time-shifted- ie, current? Thanks - good to meet an analytical type at this site.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 17:52 - ID#241149)
an hour w/no posts
A bit of lyric:

"When Black Friday comes..."

Who is the artist/group?
Year produced?

Is there anybody out there?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 18:02 - ID#57232)
Vronsky -- I really enjoyed your most recent LBMA expose #5. My name in lights! I am especially intrigued by the posts from ANOTHER -- just as captivating as the posts by BIG TRADER. ORACLE OF ALBERTA's comments are interesting as they allude to a "powerplay by London to replace New York and Tokyo". The Rothschilds would have alot to lose if the launching of the ECU is a disaster -- I like the idead of an e-gold "backup" currency. Who would know better the true value of gold than a Rothschild? The terms offered to Britain to join the ECU will give us a clue to the reality of the situation. One wonders - what is so special about Britain - perhaps it is because of the location of the LBMA, and the fact that Britain has not yet agreed to commit to the ECU. As the Oracle of Alberta says -- the Rothschilds may be standing behind the Brits to step in if the ECU ( supported by the regular banking establishment of Europe and America ) falters. As I recall a common European currency was attempted approximately 500 years ago, and failed. Perhaps this time there will be a backup.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 18:08 - ID#57232)
Where is everybody? So quiet!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 18:30 - ID#258427)

George Cole
(Tue Oct 07 1997 18:56 - ID#430205)
market outlook
Gold stocks did pretty well today considering the $1.30 drop in bullion and soaring Dow.

Only God knows when this bull will begin to unravel, but here is my thinking on the subject. Each leg of this incredible bull has run half as long as the previous leg. That is what led me to predict an August top. And the market did drop significantly in August.

My mistake was assuming this bull would have just 3 legs like most of these critters do.But after August's correction a fourth leg up began in September. If this fourth leg lasts half as long as the previous leg, the market should peak in late October or early November. In my judgement there is an 80% chance that this will be the final top and the long awaited bear will commence in earnest next month.

If this incredible bull was to grow a fifth a leg, it probably will take the form a truly spectacular December blowoff -- probably to the Dow 10,000 area. In that were to happen there is a 95% chance that one of the most ferocious bears of all time will commence in January. For if the fourth leg lasts 2 months, the fifth can only last a single month.

Bottom line -- after a spectacular October the market will be heading down in November. Probably -- but not certainly -- the beginning of the big bear. If it is not, then the bear starts with the new year after the most spectacular year-end rally in history.

Homer Simpson
(Tue Oct 07 1997 19:06 - ID#394159)
George: U getting rich on those gold shares? Where's the stock market crash? Probably next month ( DOOOOOOOH )

Homer Simpson
(Tue Oct 07 1997 19:11 - ID#394159)
@ George s CoLe
Doooooh do you have three legs or four- dooooooh - 80% chance that someday you might be right about something-some day-keep up the good calls!

Homer Simpson
(Tue Oct 07 1997 19:18 - ID#394159)
@ GeOrGe S cOlE
Georgio: If the market has TEN legs when will it PeAk?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 19:35 - ID#241149)
no posting zone
Gold price manipulation conspiratheories?
LBMA/CB's/BGates ( Sollog says he's... SANTA, whoops SATAN! those darned anagrams... )
How many lives does "Testy" the cat have?
Hiesenberg wasn't really sure you know.
C'mon Kitco - y'all on vacation?
DoooohhhhNuts! ( Hi Homer )

(Tue Oct 07 1997 19:43 - ID#344211)

steely dan----

black friday is coming soon.

gold will not break below its' recent low.
silver will not break below its' recent low.
their trend has changed, and THIS trend, is our friend!!!

chaos and flux are amux us all.....awaken...........

flaming arrows from cyber-space are winging their way
to the vitriolic ones. let your venom poison no more,
cherokee has settled the score.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 19:52 - ID#18970)
GO MARLINS GO ORIOLES The Team of our NATION's Capitol! Indians a 1/2 GO for beatin the WAll ST Yanks!!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 19:54 - ID#32078)
JTF and #346140
Disclaimer #1: NO single mathematical indicator/ratio/signal will work every time. ( even 3-2-5 )

I started using 10 days because its a nice number ( trading days, 2 weeks ) . The longer the moving average, the less specific is a signal. Since I am willing to trade every day, I want quick signals backed up by long term trends. I don't consider volume at all; probably should but I can't follow everything.

What I use is a cheap man's version of calculus techniques done on quickbasic based upon old physics/aerodynamic equations. The change in position ( velocity ) can be determined immediately by checking today's current value with yesterday's. However, the change in velocity ( acceleration ) must lag a few days and therefore is only a general indicator which must be sustantiated with others. I found that complicated programs and derivatives,etc, quite often flood my mind with so much unnecessary drivel that a decision cannot be made. Therefore, I analyze many similar simple ratios to evaluate the market situation daily, and act only when most are saying the same thing. Last week on Sep 23 I got a tentative buy and on Sep 24 a confirmed buy. Great timing and it gave me a very nice gain. However, in early Sep a buy signal wasn't so good and I took a loss.

The secret of most systems is to recognize when you are wrong and cut your losses, and ride the winners as much as possible. You must accept mentally that you will be wrong and don't let your ego keep you in when you should be in cash. As you have probably noticed, big egos expressed on Kitco don't produce much.

George Steinbrenner
(Tue Oct 07 1997 20:08 - ID#424147)
Quiet boy!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 20:13 - ID#411149)
George S. Cole- I agree that if not October then maybe November for the start down and have added to my short position accordingly and iffin that don't work then I will really be short for January! AND LONG GOLD SHARES!

My business is booming and that reflects the housing boom but one of my customer said that it was verry hard to collect. Bankrupcies runnin at
record high. Everybody is rich but ain't nobody got any money!


(Tue Oct 07 1997 20:22 - ID#411149)
Hey cherokee- do you promise? I like them BLACK FRIDAYS. I jest bought me one of them 98 Yukons offa them August BLACK FRIDAYS. It's like ridin in heaven. Gime some more of them BLACK FRIDAYS.


(Tue Oct 07 1997 20:29 - ID#393102)
If you have been waiting for more individual investors in the gold
market, there is some good news. Futures Discount Group has recently
started running radio ads promoting gold options. They have been
touting the S&P options for a little over a year, and I presume it
may have worked well for their clients, due to a strong trending
market, although with option buying, precise timing is critical.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 20:40 - ID#57232)
@NewPhysics- at_Home
Larryn: Comments appreciated! The hardest thing about investing is not setting up trading rules, it is following them! Not only do we have some Kitcoites with big egos, we also have gold bugs who will not let go even when they know better! Sometimes that's me! My better half reminds me when I said it was time to sell.
I appreciate your post. Years ago I worked as an Astrophysicist - great to meet someone with similar mathematical interests. I have indicators as well -- programmed on Windows for Wall Street, with a rather strange pseudo Metastock language that would make a Fortran or Basic programmer cringe. I guess I show my age when I say I used to feed 300 card programs of electron plasma wave calculations into those silver card feeders in an IBM 360.
Despite all the indicators, what I do now is trade mutual funds on a 1-3 month basis, because this averages out the short-term fluctuations of stocks, which consequently need to be traded longer-term. Took me a year to figure that out ( just the reverse of what one would expect ) . I use composites of the top ten stocks in each mutual fund, so that I can follow volume as well as price. Works well with my Fidelity 403b retirement fund. I consistently have done well with gold mutual funds, for some reason ( perhaps it is more logical ) , and not as well with stock mutual funds or stocks -despite the recent bear in gold.
By the way, have you gotten into the relatively new time-series-analysis stuff? Pretty complicated math, but still much simpler than fluid mechanics. I think some of this was done at the Santa Fe Institute ( for mathematics? ) . I downloaded some software on this but have not had time to decipher it. If I dont' understand the math, I don't feel comfortable using it for investing. Let's keep comparing notes.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 20:47 - ID#57232)
Cherokee: I think you and I sometimes read the same books. Flux -- that's from a science fiction series where somecomputer geniuses set up their own reality framework, as I recall. As the series evolves, some pioneering types volunteer to enter the flux, and discover they have god-like powers. Great series!
You and Aurator have something in common. Any clairvoyant abilities? Perhaps you can help us "sightless" reality-bound souls like myself to see better what is around us. I always enjoy your posts.

Homer Simpson
(Tue Oct 07 1997 20:55 - ID#394159)
@ Dooooooooh
I'm waiting Georgio! Dude:Am not fessing-up to nothing! GeOrGe S cOlE:Is the 8th leg connected to the 9th leg? if so what day of the week do you predict your NeXt market top,versus last predicted market ToP @ -Feb-Mar-Apr-May-Ju-July-AuGuSt-Sep? I am confused and waiting for your SaGe advice

(Tue Oct 07 1997 21:00 - ID#344346)
conspiracies? Or NOT
Take a look at

(Tue Oct 07 1997 21:32 - ID#227238)
Homer Simpson ( @ Dooooooooh ) ID#394159: Hey duuuuuuude! You are one irritating piece of work. Here's one for you and your buddies under the rock. It's really from one of your ardent television fans.

Bart S.
(Tue Oct 07 1997 21:36 - ID#253174)
@ Earl
Early: That wasn't veeeery nice!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 21:37 - ID#338452)

WW I quote:
"GO MARLINS GO ORIOLES The Team of our NATION's Capitol! "

What's this "our" shuff ..... The capitol of Canada is Ottawa and they don't have either Marlins nor Orioles ! Blue Jays are down the road a bit and the Senators are putting on the blades for hockey.

I wonder why they call it the World Wide Web ( www ) . Maybe because of Americans want to take over the world? ( :- ) We're here too ya know even if we do pronounce house wrong and say eh too much and let TED live in the lap of luxury! ( well, 2 out of 3 ain't bad ) ..... "Our" nation ain't yours ! ( yet )

TTFN ( :- )

(Tue Oct 07 1997 21:41 - ID#338452)

Earl ...



(Tue Oct 07 1997 21:45 - ID#286199)


(Tue Oct 07 1997 21:50 - ID#216107)
George, it sure is tough watching this market. I wouldn't worry to much about calling it exactly. I think the key is we are aware to the changing environment. The ocean is showing white caps, most people are enjoying the pick up in the wind, a small number of us are worried about a gale. When exactly the storm hits, is tough to call. BUT I it does us a lot of good to keep trying, every analysis generates more knowledge.


(Tue Oct 07 1997 21:50 - ID#199309)
@ Trying to learn
To George S. Cole: What is your downside target for the Dow and when do you expect that to happen? Thank you in advance.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:04 - ID#30116)
:- ) ) :- ) ) ROTFL!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:08 - ID#30116)
@numbers, numbers!
Well, it kind of looks like this for gold; $330 is one S/R line $324 and change is another... Looks like platinum has discovered the difference between up and down tonight. Then again, I probably speak too soon.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:10 - ID#30116)
@DJX anyone?
Just curious, has anyone here traded the DJX options or futures?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:19 - ID#287279)
Unisys Calls 8 1/4% Convertible Notes Due Year 2000

BLUE BELL, Pa.-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Oct. 7, 1997--Unisys Corp. Tuesday announced that it had
called for redemption on Oct. 27, 1997 all of its $345 million outstanding 8 1/4% convertible
subordinated notes due on Aug. 1, 2000.

The call price will be 103.25% of the principal amount of the notes, plus accrued interest. The notes are
convertible into Unisys common shares at a conversion price of $10.2375, or 97.6801 shares per each
$1,000 principal amount of notes. Yesterday, Unisys common stock closed at $14.625.

``This is the first step toward our goal of reducing the company's debt load by $1 billion by the year
2000,'' said Lawrence A. Weinbach, Unisys chairman, president, and chief executive officer. ``We are
focused on making major improvements in our capital structure to reduce interest expense, improve our
debt-to-equity ratio, and provide additional flexibility so we can continue to profitably grow this

Given that the current market price of Unisys common stock exceeds the note conversion price, the
company expects all of the debt to be surrendered for conversion into stock, adding approximately 33.7
million shares to the company's common shares outstanding.

Unisys has entered into a standby underwriting agreement with an investment banker to help ensure
that the conversion will be completed without significant use of company cash.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:20 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Earl -- Nothing like a picture that speaks volumes! HAR!!!

Panda -- Are your numbers cash, or what contract month?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:21 - ID#30116)
Is anyone else experiencing slow access to financial sites on the WWW tonight?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:23 - ID#30116)
Eldorado -- COMEX spot gold price.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:29 - ID#220237)
@ Eldorado
Is that you in the picture?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:32 - ID#30116)
Eldorado -- I just re-checked my charts and the numbers are.... 100 day moving average for spot ( cash ) gold ( COMEX ) $329.75. I also have a trend line 'support' at $321.65. What's a 'few' Dollars in this gold market anyhow? :- ) )

I was just looking at the 1993 rally. IF I use this as a guide, the next week and a half should see gold consolidating. To us mere mortals, that means going down some. Then, based on history, ( he said with fingers crossed ) we resume the upward trend. For the rest of you, that means sell now and keep some of your money. :- ) )

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:34 - ID#173274)
@ther scene
Panda -- Your numbers pretty well back up my own, though I'm calculating in the Dec contract, and its commensurate higher numbers. You may need one more in between the two though, IMHO.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:37 - ID#60253)
Why did LBMA go public?

Ever notice how many important middle
eastern people keep a residence in London.
Its not because of the climate. The most
powerful banks in the world today are the
ones that trade oil and gold. It is in the city
that the deals are done by people who
understand value! Westerners should be
happy that they do because the free flow
of oil and gold has allowed this economic
expansion to continue this past few years.
Understand that oil is still traded for a
certain number of US$ but after the deal
is done a certain amount of gold is also
purchased with the future flow of oil as
collateral. If the world price of gold gets
to high then the oil price is falling. So long
as gold stays cheap in currency terms oil
will be in good supply. Too hard to follow?
If real physical gold trading dries up its
price will rise forcing down the value
of oil. All this year physical gold
volume kept drying up as paper short
volume exploded. But,each time before
a squeeze started to run the price the CBs
would sell thru LBMA . You see, when
paper trading ( of anything ) volume dries
up its a bearish sign but when real physical
gold volume drops its bullish! Thats because
gold is being cornered on a scale never seen
in history. LBMA is doing its best to show
real volume exists! The problem is, if the
CBs dont expand their roll as primary
suppliers LBMA will implode and in
the process create the greatest bull market
in oil and gold the world has ever seen.
That is why some Big Traders are holding
ONLY gold as events unfold.
Interesting, dont you think?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:38 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Weak Hands still selling

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:45 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Homey Simp -- Nah. I have a mustache. All the better to smirk behind! Get a life.

Bart -- More trash to take out!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:46 - ID#386245)
A full-scale replica of the first electronic digital computer will be booted into action in Washington tomorrow. The replica is a working model of the Atanasoff-Berry Computer , built at Iowa State University from 1939 to 1942.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:48 - ID#30116)
Here is a thought to contemplate. Why is it good to buy a rising stock? Because the trend is up, the company has some good news, earnings, etc. etc. Now, why, when it comes to gold, do we see in news stories, that, the rising price of gold will dampen the demand for gold? If this is true, then why doesn't the rising Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000, etc., dampen demand for those 'commodities' as well? Or is it that, stocks are 'different' when it comes to this aspect of crowd psychology?

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:54 - ID#30116)
Eldorado -- The hell with the 'finer lines' in between! Just give me the worst news first! That's how it works in this market, right? :- ) )

FWIW catagory, those 'investors' on the 'street' sure love them oil producers/drillers/explorers! Could this sector be the new 'gold' stock area??? After all, we all burn the stuff in one way, shape or form. It doesn't suffer the stigma of being called ( yuk! ) 'goldbug'! Then there's the Persian gulf and Mid-East...

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:54 - ID#401114)
HIgh school cheerleader cheer

Homer, homer he's our man, if he can't do it, no one can!! Yea Homer!!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:56 - ID#30116)
Slow night here!

Good night all ( or day, depending on where you are ) ............

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:57 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Panda -- Non-belief! Remember all those who did not believe the stock market couldn't go up further years ago? Now that they believe it can go no other way, it is time to be most cautious! Just the opposite for the metals.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 22:58 - ID#228128)
Three calls to Fidelity in the last week and on every one I spent time on hold, including an evening call. Looks like people are buying. No way will they handle the volume of calls if and when the market tanks.

Bob M
(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:01 - ID#26059)
Everytime i bet against the stock market, I get clobbered...looks like gold and silver are pretty strong here..holding their ground very firmly...

Bip Roberts
(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:02 - ID#253342)
@ Turner(gag) Stadium
Marlins 5 Cowards 3

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:03 - ID#261267)

I'm thinking of a straddle on the XAU right here. I think any move up goes to 120 and any selloff blows right through 90. Thoughts? No blind ass gold bug thoughts though!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:06 - ID#280192)
IDT ( 22:58 ) Cutbacks and declining service at Fidelity are why you got put on hold and not heavy volume!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:14 - ID#252312)
To all: I am going to try to post a page of websites on the Middle East situation.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:18 - ID#252312)
US Boosts Iraq No Fly Zone - Reuter, 10/7/97

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:21 - ID#197304)
boilermaker city
Someone made some strong comments on grains recently and I forget who it was. Eldorado, RJ, Donald, maybe??? I've got quite a few Dec corn calls that were almost worthless until the recent action. I've been bullish on grains but the recent negative action kinda bummed me. Should I hang on?? Does this recent volatility have any implications for metals? I've been wanting to buy some futures but caution from oldman and others about new lows possible kinda spooked me. I don't want to miss the move. PS. Would someone who knows Bart please beg him to put oldest posts first. It's so ass_backward scrolling up and down on longer posts that I get frustrated and just quit. Makes so much more sense to scroll in one direction only. Thanx to all

Blind Ass Gold Bug
(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:22 - ID#253237)
@ Bfiler
XAU should be at 700 by x-mas! IMHO that is. buy buy buy

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:22 - ID#252312)
Russian Communists raise stakes in battle with Yeltsin Reuter, 10/7/97
-- This explains Yeltsin's new anti-US stance.
ALso: Red Cross warns of winter famines in Russia

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:25 - ID#252312)
Turk Jets bomb rebels in Iraq, Toll rises. Reuter, 10/7/97.
Third week of 15,000 Turkish troop crossing into Iraq.

George Cole
(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:31 - ID#430205)
the Dow
Newbie: My downside for the Dow is 30%+. But that will be from higher levels. Dow should reach at least 8500 this month before hitting the skids in November. If the November decline turns out to be just another correction, look for the Dow to approach 10,000 by year-end, before tanking big time.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:34 - ID#252312)
"Jakarta unmoved as the rupiah stays in free fall" Greg Earl, Jakarta 10/8/97. From AFT. Looks like many Indonesians are not yet fully aware of the economic impact of what happened to their currency. Imported goods 30-50% higher.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:39 - ID#227238)
JTF: "Red Cross warns of winter famines in Russia" .... I just read somewhere recently, that Russia was about to become a net exporter of grains. Apparently not.

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:42 - ID#18970)
GO MARLNS and Tribe tomorow. MARLINS YES!!!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:43 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Jmark -- That may have been me on the grains. I can't guide you on your Dec. corn calls, but let me make a suggestion to you. Look at the daily chart of Dec corn. Now you tell me where new support is to be found. Next, does this begin to look like the next leg up? If the above are true, then this sucker may have ONLY begun to move. Just remember that Rome wasn't built in a day, and there will be days when it'll look like it's all over. Never mind all that. Just watch the prices around support and resistance so you can judge for yourself what you should do.

Metals are yet a different animal and should only be traded as themselves. Never mind the grains when looking at them! I believe even oldman is simply looking for confirmation of a new trend change before getting long again, though I understand He does have some Leaps of some kind. He covered his short positions Friday. You'll just have to watch with the rest of us I'm afraid.

As for this site posting last in on top, I believe it does save on bandwidth as one can hit the stop button after refreshing to just catch the newest postings, but still allowing viewing of them all if desired. Unless Bart implements a system like Avid's, then I believe it to be the best way to handle it. But the Avid site makes it extremely hard or impossible to view a whole day, or multiple days as you have to know how many posting to go back! Not good for a site like this one!

Best regards...

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:45 - ID#199309)
@ George Cole and EB
Thank you George! EB: Go Marlins

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:46 - ID#252312)
To all: Given the steady rise of the NYSE and the NASDAQ for the last several weeks, I would agree with Goerge Cole that our powerful stockmarket rally will continue. Is part of this rally due to fund shifts from other parts of the world ( ie, safehaven? ) . Is this rally temporary, or have we had our correction, and is the market going to continue into 1998 before it stumbles again? I think it is easy to underestimate the current strength of the US market. Perhaps it needs a solid shock before it tanks. If our gold rally survives a continuing rally in the market, at least that will be on its way!
We still need to be alert for one more dip in gold -- in my opinion - for what free comments are worth -- you get what you pay for!

Sleep well, everyone!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:47 - ID#33180)
CDE, your 15:20 Tuesday
TED: Had sold half last week over 16, thanks. The rest is a longer term holding. The only news I saw was out before the market opened Tuesday, from Yahoo...

MELBOURNE, Oct 7 ( Reuter ) - Great Central Mines Ltd said on Tuesday that at the end of its A$3.00 a share bid for Eagle Mining NL it held 99.9 percent of Eagle's capital and would move to compulsory acquisition of the remaining shares. Great Central won control of Eagle when U.S.-based miner Coeur d'Alenes Corp ( CDE ) sold its 14.9 percent stake, killing speculation of a counterbid from Coeur. ( end quote )

I noticed there was a 100,000 share trade just after 2 pm Tuesday, on an uptick of 1/2 point, in an otherwise dagger-drop day for CDE.

George Steinbrenner
(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:48 - ID#424147)
@ WW
WW: What are you doing back here? I asked Bart to have you banned!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:51 - ID#252312)
George S: Did you mean Kitco, or the Stadium? Good night all!

(Tue Oct 07 1997 23:55 - ID#252312)
WW: No offense -- I just wanted to see what George S. would say!