The technical clue to this rally's failure was the fact that open interest declined as gold prices advanced -- signalling that short-covering was a major force driving prices higher. In a sustainable gold bull, the open interest must rise together with the price as in 1993.

High upside volume in bullion and gold stocks is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for a long-lived gold bull. We must also have open interest climbing along with the price.

Aurator: Looks like everyone is playing mind games with you tonight. Central Banks manipulating dollar/gold, Possible run on Communist Chinese Banks, ?How much gold in Fort Knox? Greenspan inflating the dollar with one hand and selling gold with the other -- without touching Central Bank gold stores -- As far as I can tell the mind games have been going on for nearly 100 years, and the hypnotic effects are wearing off! PS -- I did look up your reference on attrractors and the Reynold's number. There is a connection -- attractors can be used to describe a metastable state of turbulence -- just above the critical point in the motion of a fluid -- decribed by the Reynolds number. Since I am really asleep and not typing on the computer all of this has been virtually transmitted from another time and place.

Hey Nick! Why futz around waiting for LIHIR to back off 20 cants? Buy VENGOLD at @$1.50 US instead. VENGOLD owns 9.4% of LIHIR and is already trading at a 20 cent discount to LIHIR! Heck you get all their other exploration projects in Venezuela and Indonesia for nothing! Check it out for yourself at www.vengold.com! You'll be glad you did! Go ahead, check it out mate!

Hi mates.....what the hell am I doin up ( 1:23 AM ) and I'm not even drinkin!...Nick ( C ) No gold shares bought by this dude yesterday ( am stock-piling cash for secret plan...Aurator: Carpentry work is related to "secret plan"....

Anyone know whats happening to Japan & Hong Kong today.
None of the sites seem to have the latest figures. Maybe a holiday after yesterday.

Hey Nick! holiday in Hong Kong mate...

Aurator: Where are you - are we slipping/flowing out of temporal sync? Has Chronos gone awry? Are you moving too quickly in the aether, causing turbulence in the space - time matrix? Can't move too quickly or we cause eddies ( attractors ) . I don't know how long they last. I'm afraid on this topic I would be no match for the flowing motion of your prose.

Australia's biggest gold miner ( and the world's 4th largest ) --Normandy ( NDY ) very active today. Newcrest has sold their
11.81% stake to an "overseas institution". Volume today over 196,000,000 shares. This clears the overhang of these shares on Normandy's price and I expect some good action when listed in Canada ( Toronto & Montreal ) later this month. Nice to have shares/calls go up on this of all days. I've been talking this company up for the last month here. Hope some of you got aboard!!

Ted: I don't know why I'm up, and you are hours of sync way ahead of me! Looks like you have to rethink Aurator back into existence!

EB, you talk about "It is Still a bear market regarding the fundamentals" and "there could be CB manipulation", "The other White metals will Not move in harmony with Gold". What fundamentals? Sorry my friend ( and the rest of you talking about fundamentals, Silver is better, etc.. ) . I don't believe there is much CB manipulation or conspiracy. There is the one reason for this pitiful performance of PMs - greed and shortsightedness of traders. The lack of investor's brainwashing about "gold is the place to be" ( aka, in equities ) results in a small volume of trading and a small amount of money can run up/down the market so some can make the profit. One day there will be a reckoning but only God knows how long that will take. Silver rules? You probably forgot what Hunt brothers were able to do with silver market. Lets not blame CBs and AG. We met the enemy and it's us!!

At present, only one Clinton appointee heads up any of the
banking bureaucracies -- Eugene Ludwig at the Comptroller of the Currency. The bureaucrats running the other agencies --RTC, OTS, and FDIC -- continue to answer to no one.

94/09-The Real S&L Scandal

The untold story of Scott Cone is one of regulators run amok. But it is also just one piece of a broader nightmare. Although the so-called cleanup of the savings and loan industry may have begun as a well-intentioned crackdown on abuse, it has become a witch-hunt, destroying the lives of honest operators. The toll, in human and financial terms, is staggering. Congress should put a stop to it.

By Mollie Dickenson
"The large majority of S&Ls have always been ethical operations," says Vic Simon, editor of Bank Bailout Litigation News. "All the really rogue operations were closed down by 1990. Many of the government's cases are against people who did nothing wrong."

In its quest to catch crooks, the RTC became the nation's largest
employer of law firms. Between 1989 and 1991, it paid $1 billion to 3,350 firms, according to informed sources. The agency also has paid $6.5 billion to more than 100,000 outside contractors, such as appraisers and brokers of thrift assets.

Salaries at the OTS and RTC top out at $158,000, according to documents supplied under a Freedom of Information Act request. Only the president, vice president, and chief justice make more among all federal workers. Congress recently sent the RTC $18 billion in new money, even though the agency is scheduled to shut its doors at the end of 1995.

All told, the RTC has spent $130 billion of taxpayers' money and sold $400 billion worth of seized assets. Many of these assets, sold at discounts of 30 to 40 percent ( taxpayers make up the difference so thrift depositors can be reimbursed in full ) , have ended up in the hands of wealthy individuals ( Texas investor Robert Bass, Revlon chief executive Ron Perelman ) , corporations ( GE Capital Corp., Ford Motor Credit Co. ) , and partnerships managed by Wall Street firms ( Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs ) . Together, these asset sales constitute one of the largest transfers of wealth in U.S. history.

Just last March, the RTC said it would reopen "several hundred" thrift investigations that had been closed. Washington defense attorney and former federal prosecutor Douglas Lobel says, "More and more aggressive prosecutors are converting regulatory and administrative violations into criminal convictions, using elastic statutes that know virtually no limits."
http://www.worth.com/articles/Z9409F02.html

To all: If Bill Buckler is right about the drop in gold being due to AG not wanting the SE Asians to buy gold, I would think this would backfire.
Pushing gold down at the right moment could certanly knock out our weak gold "rally", but if you are a desperate, frustrated SE Asian with money, I would still prefer gold to dollars. If this is actually what is happening to gold, I would expect our bear market in gold to end soon.
The main problem I have with this scenario is that most gold is bought when one has money, and is worried about the future. Unfortunately, many SE Asians have lost alot of money, and have found gold alot more expensive than it was only a few months ago.
My personal opinion ( worth the same as always ) is that we do indeed have a central bank play "selling" gold and "buying" dollars to keep the dollar strong, but the real reason is to fend off the inflationary effects of greenspans currency creation of the last six months or so. Unfortunately, although I don't understand the process, I don't think AG can do this for any length of time without reaching into Fort Knox. I think the process we went through leading up to pulling the US$ off the gold "standard" in 1972 is repeating itself, albeit delayed by the introduction of gold derivatives trading.

Yeah it's late and I don't know why I'm up...."rethink Aurator back into existence" ( huh? ) ....Aurator: you have mail dude!

Get to it you old Man!

away


I was a star in SD but a bum in the "Rotten Apple"....

Ted: Why don't you look at Aurator's post to Speed -- Thur Oct 9,22:27.
He's been busy. Good night - I am barely coherent.

Watch that ole man stuff ya wipper-snapper....

And I'm watching Mr. en do the wicky-wicky...h M!

away...to...well...cha-ching!


MINING COMPANIES that SELL FORWARD: My thinking is that given two opportunities one should buy the stock where no forward selling is obligating future production. 1. ) Their prices are much more depressed & therefore a better buy relative to the reward side of a bullion up move. 2. ) Without having sold forward, a company like Agnico Eagle for example will not need to repurchase to cover having sold forward or produce & ship their future gold to meet the contractual obligation. Therefore their resource will be valued fully by the market. 3. ) Along the same lines of reasoning, companies that have identified large deposits, but not begun mining them would also be fully valued.

Am interested in hearing what you think regarding this. Is it a factor which does not really merit consideration should a bull market start? Or do you think as I do that some thought should be given to this?

Gotcha!

Where's Eldo? DOOOOOH

http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/1010_bus10.html

JTF
just intuited relationship between strange attractors & Reynolds numbers,.Odd how the universe is revealed to us in duality models since Descartes. Waves and particles. +/- charges, male female, ying yang, yet gravity is so far revealed as unitary. I shall ponder Fort Knox and other grist tonight, add a little salt who knows, hey, Auric, didnt you try to irradiate Fort Knox gold with Plutonium or some such in a fillum somewhere?
Speaking of which, eat yer hearts out fellas, this aurator, was in acting classes a few years ago with Lucy Lawless and youll only hear words of praise for her from me. Look what happened to me Har Har!
TED Splinter in yer wood box.;= )

Good night all....I've got to get my beauty-sleep....Dec. gold down .70

Friday, October 10, 1997
B.C. Report
Government tries to rebuild bridges to miners

By JOHN SCHREINER
Vancouver Bureau Chief The Financial Post
This year's mine openings in British Columbia are a sign of life returning to what has been a becalmed industry. The most recent was Princeton Mining Corp.'s $136-million Huckleberry copper mine, which opened last week. The entourage of government officials that showed up included Premier Glen Clark, eager to take some credit for the job creation, even though the B.C. government's direct involvement is only a $15-million infrastructure loan.

It was easier to raise money for these projects ( before Bre-X ) and the potential seemed better. Princeton's Huckleberry mine shows how long it takes to nurture a project. The discovery was made about 35 years ago by a major. The critical drilling that turned the discovery into an ore body was made early this decade by a Vancouver junior, New Canamin Resources
Ltd., which Princeton took over in 1995.

Other recent mine openings include:
Imperial Metals Corp.'s 55%-owned $115-million Mount Polley mine, which is expected to produce an average of 71,500 ounces of gold and 29 million pounds of copper over a 12-year mine life. Imperial's partner is Sumitomo Corp. Imperial shares ( IPM/TSE ) , which have had a 52-week range of $2.80-$1.24, closed yesterday at $1.85, up 2.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/oct10_government.html

George Cole wrote "The technical clue to this rally's failure was the fact that open interest declined as gold prices advanced -- signaling that short-covering was a major force driving prices higher."

George-
I told you that open interest was falling and the entire rally was short covering a week ago, as you were heralding a new gold bull. Its very convenient you recognize this fact after the rug is pulled out from under your rally. The trick to these markets is to act before the move, not after. Gold is weak. Gold will continue to be weak until the European CB selling is over. Your latest posts are even more hedged than normal. You have really covered your bases. Let me see if I've got this right: Gold will rise if people buy it, and stocks will fall if people sell them, unless, of course, they don't, in which case other things may happen. Have I got it right? Pardon the sarcasm but you should maybe reread a few of your more recent posts; they lack any real information and any real commitment.


The Rest of Youse Guys - And Gals-
OOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!
My back hurts. The move is over and I found myself in sunny Irvine when I woke this morn. I haven't been in the office for three days and I really feel out of touch. I've got to get away more often. The worst part was not having access to this group. I just set the computer up tonight, and the first thing I did, was log on here. This place really gets in your blood, doesn't it? Got the TV and Surround Sound set up and the bed made. That's all I need: markets to trade, killer sound, a computer, and a bed, the rest will all flow from these. Glad to be back.

RJ It's good to have you back, fancy pants :- )

This should've gone into other channel that is mostly moribund


Mining: Kazakhstan ends Placer dispute
FRIDAY OCTOBER 10 1997
By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent
A two-year dispute between Placer Dome, the Canadian mining group, and the Kazakhstan government over Vasilkovskoye, one of the world's biggest gold deposits, has been settled by a compromise agreement.
Kazakhstan has paid Placer US$25m cash, compared with the $35m plus interest the Canadian company was claiming, and they have set aside all further claims against each other.
The government, in turn, was claiming Placer had broken an agreement to develop Vasilkovskoye, and wanted compensation of $270m.
Curtis Coward, of McGuire, Woods, Battle & Boothe, attorneys for the Kazakhstan government, said: "Kazakhstan has consistently claimed its rights to payment for damages throughout this dispute. The substantial reduction in the amount to be paid to Placer indicates that the government was quite correct in this position."
The settlement was reached six months after arbitration hearings started, under rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade and Law.
Placer Dome said the initial payment in 1995 had been fully accounted for in that year and the $25m payment would be reflected in its earnings in the fourth quarter.
John Willson, Placer's president, said: "We are pleased to have resolved our differences and to have recovered most of our exploration expense payment from 1995. Now we can resume building a mutually beneficial relationship with the Kazakhstan government, because Placer Dome remains very interested in the geological potential of Kazakhstan."
Placer paid the $35m as what it claimed was a returnable deposit when it acquired the right to take a stake in Vasilkovskoye in controversial circumstances.
A tender process involving several mining groups, Morgan Grenfell, the investment bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, was cut short by Kazakhstan when it arranged the deal with Placer and its partner, Princess Resources, also of Canada.
Placer pulled out in October 1995 and said the $35m was due for repayment by July 4 last year.
The recent front-runner to develop Vasilkovskoye was a consortium including Teck Corporation, of Canada and First Dynasty, controlled by Robert Friedland, the mining entrepreneur and financier.
However, in January the government rejected that offer and no other group has yet shown a public interest. Norman Keevil, Teck president, said then the fall in the gold price had led the government to pull back in the hope of getting better offers when the price improved.


http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/v503ae.htm

All
Anyone looking for clues on LBMA, perhaps the answer lies in the other London Metals Exchange. Why not?
Surely the good folk ( grinnie ) behind the LME, may, well just perhaps *may*, be behind the LBMA.

I know, if i was a aurochild von Morgan, why, I'd make darnt sure that my grandchildren wouldn't be suprised by any Johnny Come Lately, especially after that Rhodes fella tried to take it all, no, I'd plan in advance, remember, Kondratieff and the only practical use is for inter-generational planning.. but i digress, I peregrinate, why is ALL NOT WELL with this institution that is older than, why even the good ol U.S. of A.... ( Im just warming up... )


By Stefan Wagstyl and Kenneth Gooding
Thousands of metals traders and their clients this week gather to mark another record year for the London Metal Exchange, one of the world's most important commodity markets.
The exchange has recovered with remarkable speed from the shock of last year's crisis when Sumitomo Corporation of Japan, the LME's biggest client, disclosed copper trading losses of $2.6bn ( 1.6bn ) . A survey of exchange users last year made by the Securities and Investments Board, the regulator, revealed some shortcomings in LME procedures, but no fundamental weaknesses. Turnover is at record levels, running at 20 per cent above last year. There are profits aplenty to finance this week's champagne.
But celebrations will be tempered by fears that all is not well with the 121-year-old institution. The exchange is investigating suspicions that several big trading companies are exerting excessive influence on metals prices.
In recent months, the authorities have intervened to limit trading in aluminium and zinc to stop excessive price swings. With limits already in place in copper and lead, four of the LME's seven metals are subject to controls.
The LME contributes to the confusion. Its rules do not require the exchange to explain its actions. Even the membership of the committees that decide on intervention is secret.
Following closely after the Sumitomo affair - where the company's head trader admitted buying huge amounts of metal through fraudulent transactions - such turmoil raises doubts about whether LME prices truly reflect international supply and demand. This is of serious economic concern because almost every non-ferrous metals contract in the world is drawn up with reference to LME prices.
The LME draws vociferous criticism from Nymex, its New York rival. Nymex conforms to tough US laws and claims the LME needs fundamental reforms to make it more transparent. Some London-based analysts agree, including Wiktor Bielski, head of commodities research at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, a Deutsche Bank subsidiary, who says: "The LME works like a club. The only way to change it is to bring in American-style external regulation."

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/v4e0c6.htm

To which I add

American Style Regulation,

why sure

Would I belong to a club that would have me as a member?

aurator

where that salt?

JTF Temporal Slip, you a very clever man, we just gone onto Summer daylight saving, we are now 17 hours ahead of New York Time. It p*sses off the cows ( milking talk ) , but like children and prisoners they don't vote.

Merrill's $1,000,000,000,000 By Charles Pretzlik in New York
MERRILL Lynch, the New York-based investment bank and broking house, yesterday announced that it has become the first financial services firm to have more than $1 trillion ( 625 billion ) in private client assets.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000446599501809&rtmo=341b6fda&atmo=341b6fda&P4_FOLLOW_ON=/97/10/10/cmer10.html&pg=/et/97/10/10/cmer10.html

When you "Cananks" wake up this morning, it will be well worth reading Bill Buckler's comments of last night. Scroll down to the last chart.

http://www.the-privateer.com/g-bottom/g-bottom.html

RJ: Welcome back, m'friend! Glad to see you are still in one piece after moving. That's always a pain ( literally ) !
I posted to you after you logged off before the move that your esteemed colleague ( the one whose market opinions you respect ) feels that silver stocks are just about depleted - citing the Register Report ( last reading 75 million oz. accounted for ) and the 57 million oz's the Wilmington Trust put in in January ( also unavailable for sale ) making the total 137 million reported oz's at COMEX pretty much tied up. That would make the fundamentals for silver really good. This puts you and him somewhat at odds. I'm still short gold and long platinum so in those departments we're all in sync, but given the above info. your call for short silver is interesting to say the least. Any comments? ( BTW the above details are also for KUSTON who asked for the reasons behind my statement about silver being tight - sorry not to respond sooner. My ISP was down for a full day and I haven't had a chance to post before this. )
Also, I asked why you would move from Newport to Irvine? ( of all places! ( :- ) )

G'day 'rator ( Don't wanna use the au word, mate. Might spook the "Northerners" tomorrow ) .

'rator--a few years ago when they tried to introduce daylight savings time into Queensland, a lot of farmers complained!!! "How will the cows know when to wake up for milking???"

The action in gold up "North" today SUX mate. Too bad they haven't got a regulator up there who can stop unfair trade practices!!! Come to think of it--the "regulators" are probably the ones fixin' the markets. 'rator, mate, I revel in a FREE trading situation--sort of like Democracy, apple pie, motherhood etc. and I really get pissed off when I reckon there's deliberate market fixing going on!!! Must be about the only thing I agree on with Mahathir!!!

Despite all that, I had a great day on the markets today. A few more 6 buck down days like today and I might retire!!! Actually I'm bein' facetious, mate. My puts just happened to go up a lot more than my downs went down. Don't know if you trade in OZ, mate--but how about Normandy today--200 mill odd shares traded and up 4. Big Yank company I reckon bought the Newcrest parcel, but will look for whodunnit.

G'day Strad--long time no see. How's the music business?

You are SHORT gold and LONG plat!!!. Jeeeez, I'd better hurry up and get more gold calls and sell my plat shares!!! Arn't you still the best contra-indicator on this site, mate??? RJ happens to agree with you on the gold--thinks it's gonna go to 3 cents an ounce. I'm gonna stay on my toes--but would be VERY surprised if gold isn't a LOT higher a year from now.

I will start by saying I enjoy and respect your posts and the insightful info you give us regarding y2k and other 'stuff'...thanks.
Now...

I do not and never will blame Alan Greenspan for keeping the 'paper' market going or 'crashing'. Neither will I blame the Central Bank of selling the Gold to drive down the Gold market. I get confused, bothered, perturbed, flustered, my-undies-in-a-bunch, about some people that say what the markets SHOULD do. And then they get mad and blame whoever/whatever for things that don't go their way. I start to hear every reason imaginable why gold did not go up and why it went down. And then I read your comment about all this being about greed and shortsightedness and brainwashing...huh? I agree with you that it is about greed. It is Always about greed. I am greedy you are greedy, greedy, greedy, greedy. What is the point there ( besides the obvious about stopping and smelling the roses which is something that I would say anyway ) . Now what is this about shortsightedness? Will you too try to paint the picture of where gold Should be and how much gold Should be worth? And who is being brainwashed here and for what reason? I only said there is CB manipulation because of what I read and hear and understand at kitco and elsewhere ( maybe I am wrong and I don't really care ) . Why do you think there is not CB manipulation? What could be driving/keeping down the price of gold. I just tried to put it in a nutshell in my best 'laymans' terms. Gold is Not the 'place to be' Right Now. Many people ( and I mean MANY, and not just the labeled dippies or yippies or really-stupid-people-who-can't-see-the-light ) do not consider gold to be a store of wealth anymore. I am not here to say that is right. But I do agree with this to an extent ( and I am still grasping this with the help of the great MikeS ) . Gold may be the only true form of currency or gold may someday be discarded as useless...I don't know and I don't think anybody can say with 100% certainty. If they do I will be the first to tell them that they may be wrong. Yes, gold will have it's reckoning and yes I will be along for the ride. Godbugs should just play this from both sides. They should be accumulating it at these supposed bargain prices for the long haul and for the short term they should quit the moaning-groaning-dooming-glooming and follow trends and make money so they can buy more gold...hey! I think I'm onto something...oh what's that someone is saying?? The trend Has changed?? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...tick-tock, tick-tock..."keep your powder dry"...Right George? I am sure you all have some "powder" left...not the baking kind either ;- )

Now, where was I... oh Go Indians!...oh my

away


sorry bart for making such a big bandwidth sandwich ( smile thing )

Gold up a whopping .30

Hey southern island mates. Can you come out and play? Nick-in-the-can-and-AuratorMan



The cows probably sleep but I hear the Sheep NEVER get any rest. Es Verdd??

I know that you're on Sydney time but what about Aurator...the same? Aurator, where do you live ( it's probably been asked ) .

40...goin' away

Nick
"The regulators are fixing the market". Now That's a new twist.
could be something

EB--yer missus kick ya outta the sack, mate?? It is now 6:10 pm on the east coast of OZ and 9:10 pm in auratorland--those two islands over there--can't recall the name.

G'day Nick, AUrator. Strad, EB--Hey, I thought I was the only Yank what kept these weird hours! Did I say I bought some Oct 97 HM 15 calls? Must have been someone ELSE using my handle and Kitco ID #!

Would ya' look at the sweet en go. I believe we have broken some lines here...Let's not have a selloff now my wonderful Asain-best-trade-nation...

time for the soon to be famous...h M!

 Omega-Yank ( no-reb-no-offense )

GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: Pack was lucky to win over Tampa - the Force ( stats ) were not with them. Used to listen to Lambeau's team on radio in the 30's in Vaserstadts WI as a kid, still a fan altho in CA now. Not many understood your Heilige Scheiss ;- ) Re your market comments agree completely - only question is when? Where are you on gold at this point and what are you buying? Selling?
Best, Bucky B. '49

G'day Auric--how're things in the mid-west and whateryoudoinup?? Thanks for the info on N.D.-- Didn't know my niece was payin such exhorbitant fees!!! Shirt-a-brick!!! Why go to college?? -- watch this site and you're GUARANTEED to be a millionaire within a year.

EB40--sing us a tune, mate. How about "Red Red Wine" cause it's goin' to my head!!

Auracious--shoulda known you were a wanna be actor!! "Do you know the way to San Jose..."

Nick - She let me out to play...but she sleeps with a smile ;- ) ) And I have a world-clock on my puter that tells me exactly when you are happy-houring...having some Bitters??

Evenin' Auric - I have to drop the omega handle now that your finally here.

Strad - I still listen to your tape in my car. It gets better after every play...you are good mate! I shall see you play some day. And I can't even tel that was not the real Stradfiddle...chuckle...

Aurator - How do you make those small 1's and TM's. That's cooool!

away


Hey EB--look what I kin do----now I just gotta figure out what it means!! You trade these things huh?? Ohaio gosai mas, konichi-wa and arrigato, mate!!!

Hey --- I can't get anything but "system" characters to work!! I wanna use them wingdings--how do I do it, mate???

Nick - Here is a hint...and ya' gotta sing this one...

I can see clearly now the rain is gone
I can see all the obstacles in my way
I shorted gold Monday morning none too soon
It's gonna be a bright, bright sunshiny day!

And I'm holding the spread too because my objective is NOT met yet. Albiet Gold did perform above my expectations...



But I got kicked around when gold dragged down my plat...

Once more i have to omit inverted commas, a translation thing...
E
I live on a farm north of Auckland. That is 25 miles north of this camera http://www.webcam.co.nz/ ( thanks Auric ) . on latitude 37 South. New Zealand. aka Aotearoa, which in Maori ( fancy E man the o needs a tilde! ) means the land of the long white cloud.
My neighbours breed emus, suckers* ( ? ) , i am afraid, in a Ponzi Scheme, the farm is surrounded by birds, not all of which are eaten. Hence my belief that Alfred Hitchock has probably the most incredible investment advice. *Listen to the birds, for theyll peck yer flamin eyes out if you turn your back*
The other day I disturbed a c*ock pheasant as I straightened up after weeding around some broad beans, ... you get the picture, bucolic bliss.
( Unbelievable, i have just struck net censorship gone mad, i cannot describe a pheasant correctly, nor refer to the political party that derives its name from the faesces, that is the bundle of sticks held in the Roman Senate to denote authority )
We actually hear the sheep eating the grass and the cows farting on the hillsides in the early hours of the a.m. while lying in bed waiting for the dawn
I hear so much belicose talk from the rest of the word, somehow i hope the salty per-auraration ( another kitco neologism ) from the gabby goldbug in first land mass to see the new day, and hence ( in one theory anyway ) will be the first to see in the new millenium gives a different perspective for you all.
[LUDD! I jes realised, my computer will probably be the first one at kitco to spit the dummy.
oh, thats right , its a Mac. ]
Apart from local exchange traded options, ive never ventured into options trading, tho have spent the last 6 years reading about them and this charting phrenology thing. But, I would have to become a troglodyte to trade in Chicago time. And whats the point living in NZ if your gonna sleep through the beatiful days?
So I thank all here who have so generously assisted my learnin.

RJ: Everytime gold has a run - you disappear! When gold does an about face, you reappear with somne story about relaxing on vacation. When gold goes up, you claim that your not losing money, and when gold goes down, you brag you're making a killing.

It's obvious to all, that you're either short or long gold at any particular moment; so you're either losing big time or winning big time.

RJ - you're just an anonymous pair of initials. Does you're BIG ego keep having to get in the way? I'm certain that if gold goes down big, we will never hear the end of your successful trades. In the same breath, if gold soars, I'm certain we will all have to listen to how you're making a killing as a born again bull.

If you truly are shorting this market, you're playing with fire. I reccomend you start to accumulate some of the many undervalued junior mining stocks and excersise some patience as we're most likely near a bottom. You would be richly rewarded.

Speed: Ur 10-9 21:52 on psyc and thinking are well said. It is when enough people lose the faith in paper that the mania ends and panic will set in. What will crack the dyke? Some cataclysmic event? Or as George C. thinks just a gradual wearing away of the faith perhaps? If only they taught more to think in the schools as you say, instead of "teaching" self esteem, as if that can really be taught. Ah yes, this too shall pass ( we trust ) . And then the yellow metal will shine through.

EB
Actually the "o" in Maori needs a macron.

I dinna know...

What land are you from, Aurator, that puts a tilde on an 'o'? You crazy cat! And I live close to an area that breeds ostrich for eggs and meat. How dreadfully smelly the place is. Whew!

Hi Goldbug23 - Can't sleep either?

And now it's time for night-night...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

AwAy...from the land of milk and honey to dream of en-o-plenty...



Foster's Bitter and BBQ'd Spencers...mmmmmm good...like a good champaigne, no?

h yeah...it's the best my puter will do.

G'night!

Goldbug 23 G'day. how come your arXe ***148 looks like mine? Do we eat the same food? Donald's wonderful diet of news, SChippi with his charts, Sheller with a twinkle in his eye, George Cole who is greatly respected, RJ who wears even more expensive dainties than Tuku Morgan a local polie who created a scandal with $89 silk underwear bought on a a credit card issued to a Maori TV Channel ( with lotsa taxpayer funding ) that soon after went into receivership, and there's TORT, who's jokes we love, DA ARDEN, GLENN, and others who really know, so, no wonder eh? cute ass.


and are your named after the Illuminati?
I promise to return to gold soooon

Here is some food for thought about how the Y2K may begin to impact the NASDAQ... http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Investing/Experts/Keyes/tk9736.htm

Aurator and Maverick--well said mates-------RJ--show your face mate and back up your pessimism with some facts!!!!

Found something about the Normandy sale by Newcrest---A stuffed Koala to the person out there who can find on the net who bought the Normandy shares!!!! C'mon search geniuses--do yer stuff!!!

http://www.newcrest.com.au/press38.htm

U.S. September PPI Seen Up 0.2%, Core Up 0.2%

U.S. prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers probably rose in September for only the
second time this year, sparked in part by a jump in cigarette prices, analysts said. The producer
price index, or PPI, probably increased 0.2 percent last month, according to the average of 30
forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The PPI core rate, which excludes food and energy costs,
also probably rose 0.2 percent in September, according to the Bloomberg survey. The Labor
Department will release the September statistics on wholesale price inflation today at 8:30 a.m.
Washington time. During August, the PPI increased 0.3 percent, the first rise of the year, while the
core rate inched up 0.1 percent.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/10/y0023_z00_7.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/10/cde_gtcmy_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/10/y0023_z00_5.html

J'burg gold down 3.45 percent. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/09/y0004_z00_4.html

**COMMERCIAL BREAK***
THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE BY THE MINISTRY OF **TRUTH**
because your mental health is important to us

++

Don't believe everything you read.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/10/fjtsy_y00_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/09/y0004_z00_34.html

Donald--you win the stuffed koala, mate. I looked on Yahoo 20 minutes ago and there was nothing there!! Am I using the wrong search engine??

Normandy is now going to power ahead!! Don't want to proselytize, BUT--this is such a deal!! I'm gonna retire on Normandy shares!!!

J'burg Gold now down 3.40 per cent
FT-SE down .91 per cent

Donald
reply to Nick
You is good, Donald,
bluddy bagus eh Jin?
watta place
watta site
I still think i pay too much.
Bart
will you ever supply info that is **really** important to the PMs
like
hits/day
hits/country/day
i shall gladly double the number of computers that receive this infor.

;- )

sandman soon

( I think that may be lost in the americas )

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/09/z0000_z00_11.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/09/y0004_y00_9.html

Weak Asian Currencies Hurt Earnings At Japanese Companies

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/asiaset.html

Japan offers extra loan gaurantees to aid Thai exports

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/asiaset.html

Japanese business leaders call for quick end to Baht crisis

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/asiaset.html

http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/971010/world/world2.html

Tired of blowin' all yer $$$$$ on gold????

http://islandcasino.com/

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/09/y0023_z00_1.html

Wake up TED--and go straight to my 06:06!! Forget them drips, mate. This is REAL action. PS--tempus fugit....er...caveat emptor!!...whatever.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/09/y0004_y00_2.html

Nick, good call mate, i am jes really nervous on equities.. and am out.
Cash and precious only.

No, Mr Puetz, it is not for the same *reasons*, it is because I hear birds tweeting in my ears


Is that Epiphanal enough Mike Sheller :+ ) gday starman


Now 6-pack
Oldman
GFD
Big Trader ( have you a small william? )
Cat-fella
Puetz
organ

S P E A K UP

my precious


is you is or is you not my baby?

are you goin up



or down


*and it is over to our roving reporter Sherlock Holmes who is talking to one of the greatest investment gurus of the 90s, Climber of impossivle heights, Sir Syd snail

Sherlock Holmes Thank You, and it is good to see you today, Sir Sydney. If I might get directly to the point, how are things looking in international gold STOCKS?

Well said Sir Syd.I wouldnt touch equities with a barge pole.

Why not? asked S. H. ( or Mr Holmes to you )

Because. I believe, that when the gastropods hit the fan, Au stocks will fall like a bungee jump ( are you unsuprised that bungee was invented by an acquaintance of mine? ) and i will see the elephant then.

bbll
aurator

Indonesia's total debt-to-GNP ratio was 109.5 per cent, considerably lower than
Thailand's 197.9 per cent, and its current account deficit per GNP was 3.4 per cent, compared
with an alarming 8.9 per cent in Thailand. Short-term debts were estimated at about $US25 billion,
considerably less than Thailand's estimated $US45 billion.

3boring2 = "boring"
in netspeak

Aurator--mate---it's a good thing Bart has paid us to look after things all night long--till Donald shows up, huh, mate. Guess Bart doesn't want the site to look deserted overnight and everyone might buy their ex-dental fillings from someone else!!! I'm gonna spend my Kitco all-nighter commission cheque on more gold nuggets--whataboutyoumate???

Just heard on the news---Divers have just located the pirate ship "Queen Anne's Revenge" off the coast of S. Carolina!!! Someone post the story--quick!! I'll bet there was lottsa GOLD on that ship!!!

AURATOR: Thanks for the public service message. BTW - Unitary gravity? Perhaps not. There is a duality factor to gravity as well, in this dual, yin yang yuniverse of ours. There isTHAT which is attracted, and THAT which attracts. As usual, everything boils down to 2 theoretical points. Duality! If there were only ONE point, it would be made, and there would be nothing to discuss. Get the point?Sleep well.

RJ: Life can be so simple in a monk's cell, no? Welcome home.

Nick
and your commission would be?

Jo'burg down 39 ( 3.66% )

Mike Sheller
G'day
06:36 do you mean GRAVITY BLOWS as well as SUCKS?


coc if you do i'll have to dispute it later

The latest from Avid Trading Co.

"Gold drooped to our 329 target on Thursday, extending two dollars
below it before recovering to hold with a twenty cent margin.
A close above 331 would confirm the low, targeting 350 basis December."

Also note, could the action in XAU since the 10/1 high be a EWave flat?

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971009/news/stories/blackbeard_1.html

Pirate Ship.

http://www.ah.dcr.state.nc.us/qar/Ship_QAR.htm

Mike Sheller
Coc = cos

TED: Here we go again. http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/10/cde_gtcmy_1.html Will the market love it or hate it?

Dollar weak this morning, but gold up just slightly.

RJ: I had argued awhile ago that I was concerned by declining open interest and felt that a significant pull back was in the cards. I was expecting a drop to about $330 spot and we're now around $327. A steeper drop than I expected but not that much steeper. And I still not think the entire rally was due to short covering, although that undoubtedly was a major factor.

The market is well aware that more European sales are likely and I doubt that prices will collapse when the next one is announced. Could even rally some.

All the discussion about CB manipulation and what they are really up to is beside the point. The key is private investor demand. As long as this is dormant, the CBs and their allies will be able to control the market without much trouble. Once private monetary demand takes off, it won't matter much what they do. When gold takes it won't be because the CBs suddenly decide to stop their manipulations. No it will only take off when the CBs can no longer keep the price down no matter what they do. The key technical signal that things have changed in a fundamental way will be rising prices together with a rising open interest.

Design of Blackbeard's pirate ship "Queen Anne's Revenge" just found off North Carolina.

http://www.ah.dcr.state.nc.us/qar/shp-ills.htm

Wake up TED. They've found Edward Teach' ( Blackbeard's ) ship.!!!

http://www.ocracoke-nc.com/blackbeard/blckncqa.htm

George Cole: Yours comments on gold are always intriging and thought provoking. My only question relates to the central banks -- if they are somehow involved with the LBMA ( "1000 tons/day" gold trading ) it will take alot of investors to even cause a twitch in the market -- until the central banks give up or run out of gold. Comments?

: A macron is straight; a tilde is wavy. We all have our accents, don't we?
We used to have a slew of ostrich farms here in North Carolina, too. Most have gone out of business since the fad for lean, incredibly expensive ostrich meat has past.



Friday October 10 6:22 AM EDT

Gold steadies after late Thursday shudder

LONDON, Oct 10 ( Reuter ) - Gold found a new, lower level early on Friday after its failure to rally on stock market jitters
cost it nine dollars at one point overnight before physical buying came to the rescue.

Gold fixed at $327.90 per ounce on Friday morning, well down on the $333.40 of Thursday afternoon which came ahead of
sustained institutional selling in New York.

Gold hit a session low of $325.30 at one point on Thursday, just off support offered by its 30-day moving average at $325.23
but way down on the day's earlier high of $334.40.

``It's bounced relatively well but maybe a combination of Tokyo being closed and one or two dealers left scratching their heads
means it might be quiet until New York opens,'' one London dealer said.

``I don't think it's going to break back above $330 for a while,'' he added.

Tokyo markets were closed on Friday for a holiday.

Analysts saw physical buying restoring the floor for gold after its mauling by institutional bears.

``The market is in the hands of the big institutions, and when they failed to get it higher earlier in the week they turned to the
other side and they were more successful,'' said one market analyst.

Wednesday's remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan, pointing to unsustainable economic growth
in the U.S. economy and gathering job market pressures, proved crucial.

``Greenspan requesting to address the next joint congressional economic committee meeting ( October 28 ) rather than being
invited to, suggests the Fed is very worried about the U.S. Economy,'' said one market analyst.

``It also suggests a period of turbulence coming up in the stocks, bonds and gold markets,'' he added.

Silver also took a hit on Thursday before steadying at $5.13/$5.15 early on Friday, four cents off its London close.

Sentiment on silver nevertheless seemed stronger, with some putting the fall down to technical factors.

``This was a technical correction. Silver still looks better than gold, and if the $5.10 ( support ) holds then it can go up again
with $5.30 as the target,'' said an analyst.

Platinum and palladium also showed corrections, the former at $429.00/$431.00, $2.50 off its London close, and the latter at
$200.00/$202.00, down $4.50.

More news for related categories: stock capsules.


Help

Interesting, Oz gold index closed down only 9 points ( about 0.66% ) after having been down 33 points at its low for the day. The main market index ( the All Ordinaries ) has lost about 75 points ( 2.7% ) over the past two days.

George Cole: Yesterday's rate hikes in Germany and France may partially explain the sharp drop in gold prices for a day. Sellers may have feared: higher borrowing costs for European gold buyers on margin; less appeal for non-interest-paying gold compared to rising money market interest; implied control of inflation negating the need for gold; and all the the old traditional reasons why gold has fallen temporarily when central banks have raised rates. In the longer term, however, the recognition of inflation, demonstrated by the rate hike to counteract it, could increase the appeal of gold as an inflation hedge, bringing the price of gold back up. Do you agree?

Look at these flow of funds figures and ask yourself why the Dow is still down 300 points from its high of 65 days ago and fell 120 in the past two sessions. This is not a healthy sign for stocks and when observed with the Dow/Gold Ratio in mind tells me that gold has the stronger hand in spite of yesterday.

Equity mutual fund inflows picked up in the month of September to $21.5
billion according to ICI. That is up from August's paltry sum of just
under $14 billion. For the current week, equity mutual fund inflows
surged $7.5 billion. This a big gain, but it came only after two weeks
of low inflows averaging just $2 billion.

Grab your crayons guys n' gals and connect the gently declining tops of the bottom formation in gold from July to mid-September. That line is now supporting the gold price. If all goes well, this should hold as support for the pullback. While gold consolidates here, silver could possibly come back as far as 5.04ish, where it would be playing touchy-feely with the great invisible 17 year downtrend line it has broken. If theoretics is any consolation, we would expect "old resistance to become new support." Let's keep all our digitals crossed. As an aside, so much for gap theory. This is not a breakaway gap, so there's no sense continuing that line of analysis. It's exhausted.

In taking aim at the Stock Market Greenspan warns against expecting the market rally to continue at the torrid pace seen in the last couple years:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger1009.html

To all: Re- Aurator's comments 10/10/87 2:29 about the real LBME secret lying inside the LME, which apparently works like a private, unregulated club.
Perhaps the distinction between CB activity and private speculative activity is blurred -- if there are few rules -- the activity of the central banks and private investors/speculators may be indistinguishable. The only way one can separate actions of one party or another would then only be by what happens to the market.
I am in favor of having free markets, but I think there should be some rules to prevent massive manipulation -- which in my opinion is not conducive to a free market. Remember the Hunts and Silver in 1980?

Nick: Was that pizza made by your daughter the El Nino Special? ( No anchovies )

Mike Sheller: My sentiments as well -- we are near the bottom in precious metals. I'm on full alert, and am keeping my powder ( mostly ) dry!

Japan seen fine-tuning plan to set up Asia fund
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/10/y0004_z00_5.html

Donald: Great joke about the Anchovies -- wasn't that the coast of Peru?

JTF: Yer really addicted to this site...Mornin JTF+ Donald...and the boys from down under...Nick ( C ) Blackbeards ship: well I'll be damned! Aurator:A carpenter song eh...agreed with most of it but not the "straight as a chalkline" BS...Auroelf: Thanx for CDE news!

EB regarding your Bandwidth Sandwich to Miro at 03:53
First you say you do and then you dont, Then you say you will, and then you wont, Your undecided now,
So what are you going to do????? No offense EB, I love trying to unscramble your posts.
Keep em coming. You are one of my favorites.

Donald--couldn't do without my Engraulidae!!

Nick@C How much would NDY have jumped today if'n gold jumped up.
I checked out NDY's depth screen today - excessive support and no real sellers except the mums and dads at $2, no sellers above $2.
Funnily in calls on NDY there were only sellers no buyers.

Pirated from Avid Chat
I legged my way into a strangle for 2.70 ( dec 340 call, dec 325 put ) I was looking to dump the put on a lower day tomorrow it will pay for both positions and I'll let the 340 call ride for free ( hopefully )
Bought the call at 323 area, and the put at 335 area.

just thought of something as i was falling asleep---u'r gonna see the decoupling of the bond and stock market very soon...and u know what will happen then...don't u??? just to add a little fuel to the fire lol nitie nite..

i have that handle to remind myself that the market is the boss and to never stop listening closely to what the market is saying. it is *always* talking, imho. the only times i have been whacked is when i forget that.

recent action in gold is pretty interesting. it's drop off of the recent little top is pretty hard. i wonder if another collapse has started. the gold market seems to be saying that might be so?

The Central Bank gold selling is more bark than it is bite..it is a psychological weapon, and a very effective one of recent years, but I have no idea what they will use when this dog quits barking and stops scaring people..unless the CBs plan to come in and buy it all back up at hopefully lower prices..

Good Morning Ted: JTF is not the only addict here. This site is so busy of late I have to get up at 4:30 AM to get my news posts done before it turns to molasses. It's hard to paddle through molasses, but you already know that.

PPI much stronger than expecTED...up .5% and core rate up .4% ( S+P futures are dropping loke a ROCK ( down 8.50 ) long bond down 12 ticks...Nick ( C ) thankx for casino site---

YAwn... Spi ...spin

Glad I'm not addicted ( snicker snicker ) The late night hours USED to be sooo quiet and now listen to em...that PPI makes me feel good about unloading the utilities as the interest-rate sensitive stocks SHOULD take a hit today....S+P ( as I speak ) commin back and now only down 5.40..

Hi TED! Don't worry, year over year prices are down ( he said sarcasticly ) . The spin masters will be working this one over good...

What are ya yawning about??....not the spin-meisters.....

SPZ7 down 8.5 at 8:35am

High /Low relationships on indices in the last week show excessive extremes never seen before.
Amex new highs 6/10/97=98
Amex new low 3/10/97=1
NYSE new highs 3/10/97=606
NYSE new low 3/10/97=3
Nasdaq new highs 3/10/97=542
Nasdaq new low 3/10/97=25

SPZ7 down 8.5 at 8:35am

High /Low relationships on indices in the last week show excessive extremes never seen before.
Amex new highs 6/10/97=98
Amex new low 3/10/97=1
NYSE new highs 3/10/97=606
NYSE new low 3/10/97=3
Nasdaq new highs 3/10/97=542
Nasdaq new low 3/10/97=25

Soon this house of cards will roll over.

Now the Fed has the 'reason' they need to 'snug' rates. :- ) )

How convenient...

CCGC Gold

Gold back-adjusted continuous chart, 2-94 to 10-97

Anyone know what a back-adjusted chart is??

http://www.prophetdata.com/cgi-bin/marketdata

Donald, What's your take on the Bema news? Do you have an extra billion laying around to help them out?

EB: What was she smiling about??? that great comeback by the Tribe ( said with goofy grin ) and I don't want ta hear ya dissing gold no mo---this is a gold discussion group and if you won't say gold will soar---go to another site!!...S+P futures down 7.0 hmmmmmmmmmmm

If I didn't know ya better I'd think you were being cynical-sarcastic ( NAAAH ) off ta read the WSJ to get the latest spin....

Psssssssssstt--hey meester--wanna buy some charts going back to the 1870's???

http://www.investec.com/mocharts.html

If I didn't know ya better I'd think you were being cynical-sarcastic ( NAAAH ) off ta read the WSJ to get the latest spin....

Bonds were off over one point after the announcement, now they're not. Gee, I wonder who's losing money here? Gold showed a flicker of life there... Yes folks, inflation lives. But don't worry, you won't get a pay raise to cover it. If the SnP's keep this up ( down ) , then the Dow should give up about fifty points today. The higher cost for fuel should be very troubling for the bond players. Fuel costs feed in to everything, and they know it. The mutual fund players... well...

***European markets turns red when S&P starts trading.***
Ten minutes before trading starts on the S&P, most European indices were treading water, many of them in the black. The DAX was the only indice down hard. Ten minutes into S&P trading time all Europe quivers and falls into the red.
I think that there's a lot of nevous watchers globally!

Anyone wanna sit on the top of this one?????

http://www.cpcug.org/user/invest/sp1871.gif

Spin on yesterday's gold action and NO comments from the "peanut gallery" ( Nick ( C ) :
October 10, 1997

Gold Futures Slide on Rumors
Of Sales by Venezuelan Bank

By PALLAVI GOGOI
Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK -- Gold futures prices plunged on the
Comex division of the New York Mercantile exchange
as rumors swirled that the Central Bank of Venezuela
had sold a large amount of its gold reserves.

The December gold futures contract fell $6.10 to
$329.20 a troy ounce.

An official in Caracas told Dow Jones that the central
bank "is not, has not, nor will sell gold."

J.P. Morgan, said by traders and analysts to be selling
the gold on behalf of Venezuela, didn't return telephone
calls requesting comment.

Analysts said the rumor about Venezuela aggravated
concerns about central bank sales that have undermined
gold throughout this year.

Speculation in the market was that Venezuela had sold
about 200 metric tons of gold, said Timothy Porter, a
research analyst with Refco Inc. in New York, although
he cautioned that he had no direct knowledge of the sale.
A metric ton equals 2,204.62 pounds.

If correct, that amount would be higher than the Reserve
Bank of Australia's sale of 167 tons in early July, which
sent gold prices reeling to a 12-year low of $314.60 a
troy ounce.

Mr. Porter said Venezuela's gold reserves amounted to
about 345 tons before the rumored sale. "The impact is
more psychological than physical," he said. "After all, a
200-ton-deal can be absorbed in the London market in
two days."

"I think that Venezuela was merely a target for
speculators," said Adrian Lismore, a vice president of
metals and mining for commodities at Bankers Trust in
New York. "But if the story is true, it is very bearish
news for gold considering Venezuela has the largest
deposits of gold in South America."

But the analyst noted that "today's rumor also came at a
time when there are already rumors of some Asian
central banks selling gold. If they persist and we hear of
more sales, we're looking for a downward move."

Gold came under pressure earlier as bond and stock
markets steadied following their abrupt sell-off
Wednesday in the wake of comments by Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warning about
tightness in the labor market. Financial-market turbulence
often benefits gold.

In other commodity markets:

WHEAT: Wheat futures prices rallied to three-week
highs at the Chicago Board of Trade as traders covered
their short positions, or reversed previous sales. The
December contract rose six cents to $3.6875 a bushel.
Steve Koch, an analyst with Stewart-Peterson Group in
West Bend, Wis., said the market is starting to digest the
likelihood that Australia's crop won't be ravaged by
drought.

--Daniel Rosenberg contributed to this article.














Return to top of page


Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Spin on yesterday's gold action and NO comments from the "peanut gallery" ( Nick ( C ) :
October 10, 1997

Gold Futures Slide on Rumors
Of Sales by Venezuelan Bank

By PALLAVI GOGOI
Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK -- Gold futures prices plunged on the
Comex division of the New York Mercantile exchange
as rumors swirled that the Central Bank of Venezuela
had sold a large amount of its gold reserves.

The December gold futures contract fell $6.10 to
$329.20 a troy ounce.

An official in Caracas told Dow Jones that the central
bank "is not, has not, nor will sell gold."

J.P. Morgan, said by traders and analysts to be selling
the gold on behalf of Venezuela, didn't return telephone
calls requesting comment.

Analysts said the rumor about Venezuela aggravated
concerns about central bank sales that have undermined
gold throughout this year.

Speculation in the market was that Venezuela had sold
about 200 metric tons of gold, said Timothy Porter, a
research analyst with Refco Inc. in New York, although
he cautioned that he had no direct knowledge of the sale.
A metric ton equals 2,204.62 pounds.

If correct, that amount would be higher than the Reserve
Bank of Australia's sale of 167 tons in early July, which
sent gold prices reeling to a 12-year low of $314.60 a
troy ounce.

Mr. Porter said Venezuela's gold reserves amounted to
about 345 tons before the rumored sale. "The impact is
more psychological than physical," he said. "After all, a
200-ton-deal can be absorbed in the London market in
two days."

"I think that Venezuela was merely a target for
speculators," said Adrian Lismore, a vice president of
metals and mining for commodities at Bankers Trust in
New York. "But if the story is true, it is very bearish
news for gold considering Venezuela has the largest
deposits of gold in South America."

But the analyst noted that "today's rumor also came at a
time when there are already rumors of some Asian
central banks selling gold. If they persist and we hear of
more sales, we're looking for a downward move."

Gold came under pressure earlier as bond and stock
markets steadied following their abrupt sell-off
Wednesday in the wake of comments by Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warning about
tightness in the labor market. Financial-market turbulence
often benefits gold.

In other commodity markets:

WHEAT: Wheat futures prices rallied to three-week
highs at the Chicago Board of Trade as traders covered
their short positions, or reversed previous sales. The
December contract rose six cents to $3.6875 a bushel.
Steve Koch, an analyst with Stewart-Peterson Group in
West Bend, Wis., said the market is starting to digest the
likelihood that Australia's crop won't be ravaged by
drought.

--Daniel Rosenberg contributed to this article.














Return to top of page


Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Nick ( C ) Ouch!!...For all doom=gloomers: Long Bond down 1 6/32 and S+P futures down 7.55...could be a veeery interesting day.....

Inflation anyone??? Nearly 400 years of price rises.

http://www.cpcug.org/user/invest/wcpi1600.gif

BUSINESS WEEK ONLINE NEWS FLASH
October 10, 1997


Edited by Douglas Harbrecht


CLINTON'S FAST-TRACK TRADE HOPES ARE
SINKING FAST

Renewal of "fast track" trade negotiating authority is stuck in the slow lane on Capitol Hill -- and
could stall out entirely this year.

President Clinton had hoped to win renewal of fast track -- which lets the White House cut trade
deals and submit them to Congress for a straight up or down vote -- before lawmakers head
home for a long winter recess.

But a top Republican lawmaker says fast-track legislation is "dying on the vine" because
Democratic support for it is so tepid. And House GOP leaders aren't pressing colleagues to
support fast track, he says. They don't want to force Republican lawmakers to take a stand on an
issue that is politically unpopular in many parts of the country without the political cover of more
Democratic backing.

While the House Ways & Means Committee on Oct. 8 approved a measure to renew fast track,
only 4 of the 16 Democrats on the panel voted with the majority. In the House at large, Clinton
can count on only 40 to 50 Democrats to support fast track -- well short of the 70 to 90 that
Republicans say are needed to pass the bill.

Unless the White House can drum up more Democratic support, GOP leaders are unlikely to
allow fast-track legislation to come to the floor for a vote before the House adjourns for the year.

By Amy Borrus in Washington

Volatility is way up in all markets for both the near-term and the intermediate term. Reevaluate your risk/reward ratios and tolerance for risk accordingly. The roller coaster ride is exhilarating to some, frightening to others. Next week the CPI...stay tuned.

Gotta love that chart!,how accurate so you think their research is? I hope for our sake it's well researched...,that's the most overwhelming proof I've seen concerning this mania top.

CPI---1820 to 11-96

Overdue for a correction???

http://www.cpcug.org/user/invest/cpi1820.gif

From Dbc headlines;

09:11 NATIONSBANK'S LEVY: PPI RISE 'ONE-TIME ABERRATION'.

Fed Chairman Greenspan's concerns to puncture the asset market bubble is starting to smack of a
degree of desperation. But it also raises the risk of a systemic break in the evolution of bond and
share markets both in the U.S. and abroad if the Fed translate words into significant action.
Similar comment by Greenspan in December caused a temporary disruption, but since it was not
followed by sustained hikes ( only a 25 basis point hike in March ) , the impact soon abated.

The BBK has already started to turn the screws in Europe, and if both central banks start acting in
concert the outlook for bond markets will begin to look particularly bleak. In addition, Europe
cannot be isolated from U.S. developments whatever the stages of the respective economic
cycles. Wall Street and Treasuries lead the way for European bonds and shares - de-coupling
from the U.S. is a rare and temporary phenomena. The currency impact is less clear. But the risk
is that a major asset market correction leads to a negative bias to the USD. Last time this
occurred ( after the Fed rate hike in early Feb 1994 ) portfolio flows dominated forex activity
rather than investment flows ( the latter trade on interest rate differentials ) and the USD-DEM
entered a bear phase that culminated lows at USD-DEM 1.35 in March 1995.

The interest rate background this time should also be less supportive of USD-DEM. At the time
of the last Fed hike, the BBK and Europe were in an easing mode. This time around the tightening
cycle is now underway in Europe with the BBK and other cbs raising rates today.

In part, the BBK move is predicated on the convergence of short term interest for EMU - MMS
see the ECB'S rate at 4.0% when monetary union commences in 1999 - the BBK is attempting to
ensure that the ECB starts of with a credible and realistic interest rate structure. But inflation
concerns are playing a role. Both in the U.S. and Germany, traditional inflation measures are
quiescent. But this was also the case when Japan tightened to burst the asset bubble in late
1989/90 ( average inflation in Japan hit 3/1%/3.3% in 1990/91 - U.S. was higher at 5.4%/4.2% ) .
Indeed, the major characteristic of the current global monetary expansion is the marked lack of
goods and services inflation.

But financial asset are being fuelled by excessive liquidity. In addition, the transmission mechanism
is shifting to the real asset markets. Property prices in the UK and U.S. are rising with the former
at rates comparable seen at the peak of the last boom in 1988. Strongly rising asset prices can
generate significant economic distortions, and are just as indicative of fundamental imbalances as
goods and services inflation. Investment decisions become distorted. Hurdle rates of return for
investment are reduced - this risks building up overcapacity that later has to be reversed by a bout
of deflation. But it is much more difficult for central banks to respond to these signals. Pricking
financial bubbles is risky. The BoJ's belated response to the asset the late 1980s a case in point.
Subsequently, Japanese financial markets collapsed and the economy is still suffering the
consequences. Greenspan thus remains in a 'catch 22' of how to check excesses without creating
a stock and bond market collapse. The BBK in contrast has initiated corrective action at an early
stage - a late Fed move suggests a more vicious reaction.

Nick,repost your URL for those old historic 1870's charts, the one you posted did'nt work.

Wonder what ( or if ) the connection with the raid on PM's yesterday is with the PPI for today....run PM's down before releasing the ugly PPI today...hum...Don't put anything past the CB's and their agents!!

Badger--if it doesn't work the first time--try again a coupla times.

http://www.investec.com/mocharts.html

Orange Juice for brekkie
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/10/y0012_y00_2.html

Could someone please explain the timing and # of points for the NYSE trading curbs for me?

IGNORE FED BOSS ALAN GREENSPAN AT YOUR PERIL

http://nypostonline.com/business/467.htm

Carl: All the Bema news seems good, the uncertainty in gold itself is the problem. $1.33 billion is a lot of money for them to raise but one of the majors could get involved. I am holding Bema and even if I were to lighten up on goldshares if these new ratio indicators turn sour, I would still keep Bema based upon what I know to date.

A panda walked into a pub and ordered a sandwich and a drink. After he had finished them he pulled out a pistol and shot up the place, terrifying other customers and breaking dishes, glasses and bottles before turning to leave.
Shocked, the barman said, "Hey, where are you going?" The panda glanced back over his shoulder and said ,"I'm a panda , look it up," before disappearing out the door. The barman thumbed through a dictionary until he found the entry for panda. It read, "A tree-dwelling animal of Asian origin characterized by distinct black-and-white markings. Eats shoots and leaves.

Midnite here -- g'nite all.

Trading limits;
http://www.cme.com/market/riskman/pricelmt.html

Squeeze on Dollar Would Set Things Right
by Rick Ackerman

http://home.sprynet.com/sprynet/fiendbea/marketre.htm

Well, I must admit my shock at the PPI. I too believe the goverment cooks the numbers - so why did they let it out high.

Well, I suspect that the asians are moving money home because of their currency problems ( Japan because of all their continuing problems ) . Unable to cover over the high volume of sale on the bond, Al and Rubin decided that the best cover story would be to have a larger than usual PPI.

Just a morning ramble while I wake up.

Donald, Thanks for your take on GBO. I hope you are not planning on using a touch on the Auger chart as a sell signal for gold stocks.

panda: As Yogi Berra said, it's deja vu all over again. But Nick told it better.

BILLD: I have to agree. I see yesterdays route on the PM's a pre-emtive stike to scare the Bulls out. Just think a little bit, had Gold not plunged yesterday, everybody and their grandmother would be buying today.
As it stands right now, we are just keeping our heads above the water.
I still havn't seen a credible reason for yesterdays action Gold actions.
MANIPULATION at its BEST! : - ) )

Nick:
The market shuts down for 1 hour after a
250 point rise or fall from the previous day's
close and for 2 hours after a 400 point change.

I loved the panda joke.

Good morney gents and ladies; it looks like the PM market has overcome its PMS and is slinking and sliding smoothly skyward. As they say, its moving steadily upward by jerks. Paper is smoldering--perhaps ready to burn. Oh, I love the smell of a good blaze on a Friday. Onward and upward.

Yep...and they are keeping the pressure on today as well...anything to keep the financial bubble pumped up ... kinda discouraging though to think that the markets are manipulated SO MUCH that even the overwhelming fundamentals cannot operate ... well maybe more scary than discouraging. ARE THERE NO LIMITS TO THIS POWER??

REVEALED: THE COFFEE TAPE THEY DIDN'T DARE LET YOU HEAR!
Claims of a Watergate-style cover-up have been made over the belated
release by the White House of videotapes of President Bill Clinton's coffee sessions. Conspiracy theorists are excited about the tape of a function held on June 18 last year, which has no soundtrack at all. What is the White House trying to hide? I thinks I know.


President Clinton: Gimme a double decaf skinny milk cappuccino. Extra chocolate on top. Don't tell Hillary.

Aide: Mr President, you remember Harry Jones, from Little Rock? One of your most tireless fund-raisers.

Clinton: Hey, Barry. How you doin'? Anyone see which way that gal with the plate of donuts headed?

Jones: I just want to say, sir, that we have a lot of people out in the field doing all they can to ensure you get another four years in the White House.

Clinton: Sure beats the Dog House, eh Gary? ( Aside: Who does a
Commander-in-Chief have to heavy to get one of those donuts? ) Sure appreciate all your fine work, Larry. Say, you related to a Paula? Hey Al, you ol' son of a gun.

Vice-President Al Gore: Morning, Mr President. Sorry I'm late. Was making some calls.

Clinton: Letting your fingers do the talking, eh Al? How's it going?

Gore: Goin' great. Until I ran out of quarters.

Clinton: Quarters?

Gore: Quarters for the public phone in the White House cafeteria. I've had to use it since I got that memo from your office about not making calls from my desk. Sure made it hard to understand Boris last time I had to ring Moscow. You don't have any spare change, do you?

Clinton: Sorry. I have people carry that for me. Grumpggh ... ( transcription made difficult due to peanut-butter cookie in presidential mouth ) .

Gore: Mr President, we must talk soon about this Greenhouse thing. It's really hotting up.

Clinton: Greenhouse? You growing orchids? Here, hold my cup for a moment. Don't pinch any of the chocolate on top. Watch this. What do you think? Is that a sweet swing or what? Greg's been telling me to swivel my hips on the follow-through. Oops. Sorry ma'am. Didn't mean to knock over your espresso. Don't fret about trying to clean it up. I have people do that for me. Where is Harold Ickes, anyway?

Ickes: Right here, sir. I was in the corner, sir, taking some notes. Someone here I'd like to introduce to you. He's closer to more Chinese business heavies than the Marlboro Man. Mr President, meet Johnny Huang.

Clinton: I know you! The one with the lightning hands. The action hero!

Huang: Action hero?

Ickes: I think you mean Jackie Chan, sir. This is Johnny Huang.

Clinton: Well, I'll be hog-tied. You guys all look the ... Say, you like donuts? Excuse me while I lean over you before they disappear again.

Huang: Mr President, I just want to tell you I've been making it clear to all my associates that elections cost a lot of money, and I'm sure everyone will be doing all they can to support your campaign.

Clinton: Grkkkllmmm ... ( transcription problem, donuts again ) . Sure I can't get you one? Listen, anytime you're in town and need a room with a view, just give us a call and my people will look after you. You well? Hey - that would make you Well Huang. Bet you've heard that before. I know I have.

Huang: Mr President, I just want to tell you I've been making it clear to all of my associates that elections cost a lot of money ...

Clinton: Good for you. You met the Vice-President? Fascinating man. Especially if you get him on to gardening. Al! Over here. Want you to meet one of my closest personal friends. I'm sure you've seen his movies. See if you can get me another coffee on the way through.

Ickes: If I could interrupt for a moment, sir. Excuse me, Mr Huang - just leave the envelope by the door on the way out, if you could. Mr President, we need to formulate our response to the Republicans.

Clinton: Why? Those SOBs been questioning my golf handicap again? I thought we'd got Greg to put out a statement on that.

Ickes: No sir. These coffee sessions, sir. They're claiming these are illegal.

Clinton: The hell they are. You show me a law that says anything about not serving jelly donuts in the Map Room of the White House. Forrest! Hey Forrest, give me five.

Tom Hanks: Hello, Mr President. Nice to see you again.

Clinton: So how was your overnighter, Forrest? Pillows not too firm in the Lincoln Bedroom? And how about that video I picked out for you? I just love those ping-pong scenes.

Hanks: Very thoughtful of you, sir.

Clinton: Forrest, I have a favour to ask you.

Hanks: Cheque's in the mail, sir.

Clinton: Not that, Forrest. Could you give us that line about life being like a chocolate box?

Hanks ( sighing ) : Well, sir, if you think it'd help.

Clinton: Attaboy. Johnny, come over here. Meet someone else in the movies. Al, quick. You remember this? Grab one of those cookies.

Huang: Mr President, I just want to tell you I've been making it clear to all my associates ...

Gore: It is estimated that by 2005, the Earth's core temperature will have risen by as much as ...

Hanks: Ma used to say ...

Clinton: Gffmmphh fuudggh rrssg.

__________________________________________________
BREAKING NEWS: GERMAN BUNDESBANK RAISES INTEREST RATES!!!
___________________________________________________

Will lurk back again on Monday. Am off to my MEN's camp....

Maverick @ 04:48 -
Perhaps you have note read many of my prior posts. I risk repeating myself: I am a precious metals broker. All I do all day long is buy and sell gold, platinum, and silver with other peoples money. I sell some metal for delivery, but the majority of my clients are trading metals in leveraged transactions. I don't deal in mining stocks professionally or privately. My own personal purchases are in the physical metal.

As I have explained here in the past, I could care less where the prices go - up, down, its all the same to me. I am likely to long one metal and short another. Keeping my clients hedged this way limits some upside potential, but greatly reduces downside risk. I am here to trade the range, wherever the trading range may be. I'm sorry you read ego when I report successful trades. Since you can't go back more than a few days to read prior posts, ask some others here about my consistency and the fact that I call my trades before the move, not after. A review of my trades shows that I have been short gold from 340 down, never buying on the rallies, rather waiting to sell the peaks. I was still holding gold shorts at 322, but I sold more against it at 335, the cost average allows me to bail on some of my cheaper gold at break even or better. Along the way, I have been a buyer of platinum and silver. This long white short yellow has proven to be the only winning trades I have seen on this group. My trading strategies are no secret and announced here well in advance of the market.

As for tales of relaxing in some sunny place, I just moved my entire household. Apart from a death in the family and divorce, moving is the most stressful thing one can do. Sorry I disappeared, but moving requires that I unplug my computer, put it in a box, move it, take it out of the box, plug it back it. This took a few days.

Perhaps you would read my posts of 10-2-97 @ 22:22 and 23:34. As for the rest, I told everyone here I shorted silver at 4.78 to the tune of 100 thousand ounces, it was fortunate that this client also had 200,000 oz long @ 5.03 that I have been holding for five months. We bought some more at the same level and got out of 200,000 oz at 5.28. Still stuck with the 4.78 short.

I trade the metals real world, real time, and its all I do. I'm sorry this pisses you off. As for the anonymous initials, R J is how I am known to my friends and clients. I can be found at rjd@pacbell.net so I am a real person after all.

Now. Who are you? I've only seen Maverick once ore twice on these pages. Have you taken it upon yourself to be the Kitco Cop? What information or insights can you lend to this group, or is sniping your only trick?

Away.. To do what I do.

The volume in PM stox today is so low...Yesterday must have scared the heck out of PM investors and speculators...Another clue as to MoreGold's preemptive strike yesterday against PM to counteract the ugly PPI today. AND IT IS WORKING well ... Makes one wonder ...

I hope you were able to sell those JO calls.

Limit DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!! DOH!!!!!!!!!!!!

away...to shake the ornge tree and see what falls


I would like to note that there are very very few bears for the industrials that I can find. All the people I hear being interviewed, say the numbers are troubling but I am not worried at this time. I heard one guy the other day say that even if there is trouble that he was certain that there would be strong enough warning signs to allow people to get out of the market in time ( before the fall ) .

Generally, I no longer see a "wall of worry" associated with the stock market.

I see a MAJOR "wall of worry" associated with the pm market. Very bullish IMHO.

I know Dundee. You're right. It makes me sick that these bulls have been avoiding disaster numerous times. And they don't even realize it. I know someone who bought BAY at 27, rode it down to 15, and now it's back up to
40. I can't take it....These bulls can make mistakes like that and still avoid disaster. I'm sticking to my guns...Gold,Silver,and Crude stocks. Coins too.

??? If another CB sale hit Gold, then why did silver go down also ???
Comex Silver stocks are down again.
Friday October 10 9:56 AM EDT

NY precious metals higher after PPI data

NEW YORK, Oct 10 ( Reuter ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were higher early Friday, recovering some of Thursday's lost ground, with the help of a bigger-than-expected rise in U.S. September producer price inflation.

``The gold market got a bounce on the PPI data, but it's option expiration day for November gold, silver and platinum options, which is helping, though those are not active months,'' one COMEX floor trader said.

The U.S. September PPI rose 0.5 pct, the second straight monthly gain, after seven months of falling prices.

The core rate of price gains, which excludes food and energy products, was also up strongly, rising 0.4 pct.

The O.5 pct rise in overall producer prices in September was the largest rise since December 1996.

The data comes after U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Greenspan said Wednesday that the performance of the U.S. labor market suggested the economy was on an ``unsustainable'' track.

U.S. bonds and stocks prices were sharply weaker early Friday after the PPI data.

COMEX December gold was up $1.30 an ounce at $330.50, after falling $6.10 Thursday.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted $328.90/40, compared to the London Friday morning fix at $327.90 and the New York close Thursday around $327.50/00.

Talk of renewed central bank selling emerged again Thursday, after steady selling by two investment banks often associated with official sales and reports Venezuela may sell gold to repay debt which were later denied by Venezuela's central bank.

But gold lease rates jumped sharply early Friday to around 3.13 pct for one month, from 2.69 pct Thursday, and to 3.05 pct for 12 months, from 2.79 pct.

COMEX December silver was up 5.0 cents at $5.175 an ounce.

COMEX warehouse silver stocks fell a further 618,235 ounces Friday to 137,277,908 ounces.

NYMEX January platinum was up $1.80 at $430.00, while NYMEX December palladium was off 90 cents to $203.50.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
More news for related categories and industries: mining, stock capsules.

Auroelf - Thaks. I know tildes ~ and I can't make macrons on my puter. This is as good as it gets... 

Uris - Any good flights to National or Dulles? Oh yeah...Sorry bro if I lead you to believe I go both ways ( although switch hitters get more hits ) . I am one way only...If you refer to keeping the powder dry that was Sarcasm. The bugs must have started off with VAST stockpiles of powder...I wonder how much is left??

Steve ( perth ) - I am rolling...that was some FUNNY stuff!! Thanks...

AL - C'mon dude. Live dangerously or lose AL of your money...

Ted - Missive later...Great Game last night...

Goldy-Boy - Welcome back...Irvine?

away...to shine my pearly whites...she's a Hygienist you know ;- )


Ted: I guess I am addicted! I enjoy the interaction with all of the personalities on Kitco. Great relief from the stresses of work. Every day at work there is one catastrophe or another -- trading gold is less stressful, strange as that may sound. I might actually be learning something, and I hope my posts are beneficial in some small way to others. I've only been actively investing for three years.

No -- I was not up all night on the Web!!

Dundee; Right on!.

DA: Is gold still a buy under your system?

The decent bounce in bullion this morning runs against the pattern of additional weakness usually following sharp declines. This appears to be nothing more than a severe shakeout -- not a resumption of the bear. The ability of the gold stocks to hold pretty well in the face of yesterday's $6 drop in bullion also supports this conclusion.

Bottom line -- A new gold bull is being born. I had anticipated a difficult birth process, and the difficulties are even more severe than I expected. But the correct strategy for gold stock and mutual fund investors still is -- buy the dips. Under no circumstances should rallies be chased until Comex open interest starts to rise together with prices.

Auroelf: Gold can take off for many reasons and potential inflation is only one of them. Other possible catalysts include deflation, a stock market crash, bond market turbulence, the end of the dollar bull, Middle East war, US/China problems, US/Japan problems, any sign that the two headed corporate party is losing its sway here in the US, etc.

BTW, the current situation of CB gold price suppression really is not that different from the 1960's when the London Gold Pool kept free market bullion from moving much above the "official" $35 level for a number of years. But they finally lost control and gold went up more than 20 fold in a decade. That is why Mike Sheller's projection of $2000 gold within the next 5 years or so could be conservative.

Goerge Cole: Thank you. The London gold pool ( LBMA? ) would have been active during our bull run from 35$ to 800$, and they would be playing the same games now that they did from the 20's to the 70's, except that the gold derivative trading probably increases their leverage so they can hold down prices longer.
My only point is that we should do our best to see what we are up against, because as I believe Bill Buckler has also said, the ballgame is different! Even when the tide seems to be turning, it always pays to know the strengths and weaknesses of your opponent. That next serve may be the one that you miss!

NICK: Posted last night and then went to bed. Shouldn't do that but otherwise I don't know if or when I'll get back to the site. Anyhow, ( after a good night sleep ) YES, I have historically been the world's best contrary indicator, bar none. However, as I've said before, hope springs eternal and just as I was about to be crushed in the maw of insolvency, I was rescued by changing brokers. ( The reason this took so long was that I never realized that it was possible at the firm I was with - RJ's firm. I kept asking, but it took a fortuitous turn of events to make it reality. ) The new broker is great and is the one ( I mentioned ) who RJ respects and admires for his skill and acumen with the PM market. To date, I can say that this broker is as good as the other was bad ( we ALWAYS bought at the EXACT tops and sold at the EXACT bottoms ) and he has managed to set me up to experience minor losses and substantial gains since he's pretty good at buying at the exact bottoms and selling at the exact tops. He also comes in before the market opens ( 5 AM here - unlike my old broker who showed up around 10 since "Nothing of importance ever happens in the PM markets before one hour in advance of the close, anyway." Right! ) , So I predict that a turnaround in my fortunes is imminent. There's a long way to go to get back to even but, no more contrary indicator for me!

Sold my SWC a while back for a small profit, bought some ECO which then dropped. Re- bought SWC at 19 and 19.5 and xpect a further move up. When dogs like SSC can move up and hold there must be something positive afoot for the metals. I've noticed a lot of mainline guru's turning positive on gold but I don't think that 400 an oz is going to happen before mid 98. I hope I'm late on the time but events like the last few days should keep a lid on the metals. I don't xpect to see a big dip in the stk. mkt. either. The U.S. is on top and we are going to stay there.

To all: Spotted this on "Oil World". Iran 50 boat naval maneuvers to coincide with Nimitz arrival -- could be interesting activity in a few days. I think Iraq violations of "no fly" rules will be secondary. Iran's military muscle flexing this month might still be part of a major confrontation before winter sets in in the Middle East. Hope we're prepared for all those tiny missle-equipped Irani speed boats. I think we're better equipped to handle the big threats, and not the little ones.

Evening, All

This RSA site has some Copper analyses:-
http://www.bfanet.co.za/scripts/general.idc?pagecode=SANWS

GSC:

Yes we are still long gold and will likely be for quite a while. The system is slow in nature and it takes a lot to blow out a position once it gets in, at least until the contract which it is trading comes to expiration. The 'edge' which the system has is small in nature. On any given trade the system is not a great favorite to win. However, over the long run the small statistical advantage that it seems to have, generates a nice set of returns. Just like being the house at the casino.

While I have not done in depth studies relating the frequency of trades by the system with subsequent results, my feel is that the trades which are the first trade in long while have a better chance of working out than those later in a set of time related trades. Since this was our first signal in gold in about four years this is quite positive. Part of the reason, and perhaps all of the reason, is that when the system has not taken a position for a long while it is likely that the price has been in a protracted decline. This first buy after a long decline is by definition going to be at a low price. Buy low, sell high. This effect although intuitively obvious, accounts for a lot of the positive tilt in the system. The strategy of buying commodities at 'low' prices is a winning one.

We are still long all the precious metals along with about 17 other commodities. Our total long position in commodities is the largest it has been since the spring. This is another good sign. There is strength in numbers.

I think gold's selloff yesterday can be laid at the door of the European CB's not because of gold sales but because of interest rate hikes. The timing of the move was not anticipated, so the CB's gained some inflation fighting credentials. It was widely expected that Germany would raise rates before the EMU currency fixing got underway because it was thought that the mixed short rate across EMU should be somewhere in the 4% range. This is still 70 basis points away. The other reason for the rate hike is that the German economy is growing quite strongly at the moment and the extremely accomodative monetary policy is no longer necessary. Q3 GDP growth in Germany is expected to be in the 6% annualized range.

I don't believe that the rate hike in Germany is really the start of a wave of tighter money. With the massive unemployment in core Europe each tightening is going to be met with great political opposition. In addition the CB's are aware that the only 'solution' to the financial problems of Europe, lies in rapid growth and a small dose of inflation. This is the only way to get at the entitlement problem and the governmental debt problem. Since it will be impossible to fix these things through the political process, it will be done on the fiscal and monetary side. This requires no votes.

The tide of liquidity will not be stemmed by one small sandbag. The metals game has just begun.

Very good point and cheap Iran tiny missile boats flinging a herd of Chinese/Russian sea-skimming cruise missiles at our capital ships would do the job, despite the bluster & pontification of desk-jockey political D.C. hacks. I'd be sorry to see it happen, I think the Nimitz would be on the bottom of the Gulf of Arabia if they flung 10 or more at once. We, of course, would whine about them "cheating", Bill would send out the "We regret to inform you that your son/daughter..." telegrams from the safety of the capitol - but then, the object of war is to win. How you win doesn't even remotely matter. A better strategy would just be to Scud-ize the Kuwaiti and Saudi oil loading docks and refineries & watch the economic turmoil clobber the Western financial world and push the American economy into a full-blown depression. We in the West are so dependant on Middle East oil. Ugly indeed. Of course, owning stock in solar power companies might be more valuable than gold!

Spud Master: Enjoyed your comments about Iran and solar. One industry even more depressed than gold is the solar industry. Any bargains -- I think Kwind went under. Isn't it ironic that the environmentally correct approach, also the energy independent approach is being ignored by our "environmentally conscious" government? Sounds like a repeat of the 70's when solar was hot, but only after the OPEC oil crisis. I guess we just go from crisis to crisis, don't we?

D.A.: Interesting post on gold trading model. For those of us who are new to kitco, could you give us some broad strokes on how the system works. My system involves following a multitude of indicators, which I am not suficiently confortable about to merge into a single indicator. One problem I have, for example, is that an uptrend in the dollar can be bullish or bearish depending on the international situation. A trend in the cry0 may be significant more on the down than on the up. I have also learned that the only way to make a trading model is to fully understand it, and do all the programming yourself, so that when the rules change, you can change the model.

Donald and all who are watching for the XAU to touch the Gold/XAU ratio on the Auger chart: My post of a few days ago was apparently too garbled due, no doubt to my lame attempt at irony. So I will be plain: WARNING, WARNING, WARNING!!!!! The way the chart is set up, the blue ( XAU ) line will always touch the red ( Ratio ) line when the value of the XAU is equal to 210- the Ratio times 25. You can see this as for example take XAU of 110, then the "equivalent" ratio would be 4.4 etc. Given this property of the way the chart is set up, we can make the general statement that any "touching" of these two lines that will ever take place on this chart will be when XAU=210- ( 25R ) . Given this truism, then we can calculate the point on the chart which "touching" will take place for ANY VALUE OF GOLD! This is the function that I so lamely referred to in my previous post as "truly weird". It is, in fact, a parabola, with a vertex at Gold = 441.
Between Gold=0 and 441 it has two solutions and of course no solutions beyond 441 for gold. But it gets worse! The "touchings" which show on the graph which you posted, Donald, are on the upper limb of the parabola and they will, in fact, take place at LOWER XAU values as gold approaches 441. For example, with gold at 330, they will touch if XAU gets to 157. But with gold at 400, they will touch when XAU gets to only 137. ( Unless you prefer the other possible touch "from above at 72.98. ) This is counter intuitive. At gold = 441, they will last touch at XAU of 110, which of course is silly. The point being, if there is going to be a meaningful rally in gold and gold stocks, these lines will never give you any kind of signal at all beyond gold of 441. By the way, if gold goes to 0, then the "touching" signal will take place when XAU gets to 210. A little late don't you think?

"Gold,Gold; bright and yellow, hard and cold"

I freely concede that a depreciating currency is a bad thing; but history amply demonstrates that an appreciating one is worse. The first robs the creditor; the latter despoils the debtor. The natural tendency of the first is toward an equal distribution of wealth; that of the latter toward its concentration, making the many helpless dependents of the few, crushing liberty and inaugurating insolent despotism. This fact is self-evident, and explains why the creditor East is for the gold standard, while the debtor West and South demand the unlimited coinage of silver.

Selfishness is the basic principle of both policies. Each hopes to profit at the expense of the other--and both will be disappointed.

We already have more silver coin than can be kept in circulation. Commerce insists upon being the sole judge of its needs and selects its own trade tools. When it has sufficient exchange media with which to do its money-work, it will use no more; and when it needs more it makes it.

Clearly if commerce maintains the gold standard--as is is likely enough to do regardless of the character of our political money--it will use no more of the white metal than at present, no matter how much is coined. In a barbarous country, or one where the commercial exchange system is crude; in a country where the bulk of trade is effected by actual passage of coin from hand to hand instead of by means of bank transfers, a cheap money metal would soon drive out the dear one--the high office of unit of value be quickly usurped by the less valuable coin; but in a country where comparatively little governmental money of any kind is employed, a sudden change in either the circulating media or the unit of value becomes a difficult matter--one which commerce will pass upon, quite irrespective of the acts of congress.

The wisest thing the politicians can do is to cease meddling in matters monetary. It is a province in which they are powerful only for evil. The silverite agitators have convinced one-half the people that congress can, by a simple "be-it-enacted," double the value of a day's labor and inaugurate a veritable Utopia; the goldite orators have succeeded in scaring the other half into convulsions by solemnly declaring that unless the impending silver tide be stayed, the country will go awhooping to hades in a hemlock coffin.

Everybody has been wrought up to such a stage of feverish expectancy that if the ridiculous gold reserve should be exhausted tomorrow it were well nigh impossible to prevent a disastrous panic. There is no reason why congress should supply commerce with an exchange medium than that it should provide it with yardsticks, scales and other necessary tools.

What th' 'ell do the politicians know about business anyhow ?

US OPTIONS FOCUS/Big October OEX put buyer seen

CHICAGO, Oct 10 ( Reuter ) - A big U.S. institution was a heavy buyer of S&P 100 index ( .OEX ) puts in otherwise moderate index options activity, traders said Friday.

One OEX trader said the firm bought up to 10,000 of the OEX October 920 puts, which saw total volume of 13,910 contracts by about 1115 CDT/1615 GMT. The option, which had open interest of nearly 9,600 contracts, was up 1/4 at 5-3/4 after climbing to 7-3/4 on the market's early decline.

``They just bought an absolute boatload,'' the trader said, adding that the top price paid was at or near the session high.

``I have no idea what they were doing on the other side,'' he added. ``I assume they were hedging stock with it.''

The October 920 put, which will expire at the end of next week, reached its session high as the underlying index fell to 928.80 in early action after a greater-than-expected rise in September U.S. producer prices.

The index then recovered and was trading at 930.65, down 4.65 points by 1115 CDT/1615 GMT.

The broader S&P 500 index ( .SPX ) was down 4.18 at 966.44 after reaching 963.42 and December S&P 500 futures lost 4.25 to 973.80. They fell to 965.75 before recovering.

The September producer price index ( PPI ) rose 0.5 percent, its biggest gain since December 1996 and above expectations for a 0.2 percent increase.

The OEX options trader said after a flurry of action in the first half hour, trading slowed notably and he expected action to slow further after bonds close early.

Trading in U.S. Treasury bonds, T-bond futures and interest rate options will close early today ahead of Monday's Columbus Day holiday in the U.S. T-bond futures and interest rate options will close at 1200 CDT/1700 GMT, while cash bonds at 1300 CDT/1800 GMT.

``It's going to be absolutely brutal on Monday,'' the OEX trader added, referring to the numbingly slow trade expected. Bonds, bond futures and interest rate options will be closed Monday, though equity and index options will be open.

An S&P 500 futures options trader at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, said he expected little action at least until next Wednesday, when September U.S. retail sales data are released. September consumer prices are scheduled for Thursday.

He said futures options trading was also sluggish Friday, with the highlight being a U.K. firm buying back October out-of-the-money calls it had sold.

The firm was in buying October 1,000, 1,005 and 1,010 calls, to close a position, he said.

``They were short those a lot,'' he said. ``They were trying to liquidate their October position.''

Other activity was focused on some investors selling out-of-the-money puts in the November and December series, which served to keep volatilities under pressure.

JTF ... yes, I've been pondering "The End of Cheap Oil" for some months now. Obviously, America is litteraly over a barrel vis the Middle East oil patch. We have, for all practical purposes, invested both Kuwait & Saudi Arabia. But could we ***really*** hold them in a concerted Iranian take-over? Or simply in the light of 1.4 billion Indians and 1.6 billion mainland Chinese all demand their 10 gallons of gasoline a week? Not likely.

So, face it: America is going to be without cheap petroleum soon enough. Alternatives:
#1 ) Coal - well, yes, but the BS United Nations scheme to screw Americans for being energy hogs will make that expensive.
#2 ) Large-scale ethanol from corn, wheat, sugar beets, etc. - well, yes, but same bleed'n problem - got to get the parasite UN bureaucrat/greenies off our backs.
#3 ) Hydropower - we're already tapped out - beside, Serria Club want to dynamite Glen Canyon dam, so we're going backwards there.
#4 ) Solar Power & its derivitives: Yes. Solar technology has matured now. I'd be buying stock in these companies. My favourite is Energy Conversion Devices ( ECD ) - eccentric but brilliant CEO - they have built a plant in South Carolina ( ? ) to turn out acres of flexible amorphous silicon power cells.

We'll live to se America given a nasty wedgey via another Middle East oil crisis.

Carl,Donald: My opinion of the XAU/gold indicator is that it is a long-term indicator only! I do not understand the blue/red stuff. When the ratio is around 0.33 or so one needs to be careful, and hope for a rise in gold prices. When it is below 0.2 or so this is a long term buy! I also have XAU and Gold short-term indicators which look pretty good, especially when both long term and short indicators are a buy. Any day traders would immediately spot the buy/sell dates of the short term indicators, but the magnitude of the shift would also be noted. Generally the stronger the downtrend before the buy, the stronger the buy.

Basically, I came up with ( XAU/ ( 30dayMovAve ( XAU ) ) ) -1, and
( Gold/ ( 30dayMovAve ( Gold ) ) ) -1

Both of these indicators are simple to understand, and quantify the shift in trend -- sort of like a poor man's derivative indicator ( slope, or velocity - in the Physicists sense ) . I believe investors use velocity in a different manner, for reasons that I do not comprehend.

JTF:

The system that we run is used to trade a basket of around 40 some odd commodities. Gold is one of them. The system only takes long positions and attempts to make risk equivalent bets every time a buy signal is generated. Thus a bet in the gold market will be equivalent to a bet in the soybean market or the corn market or whatever. Larger positions are initiated when prices are lower and volatility is lower. The entry signal is based upon a combination price and market action over a period of a few months. Exiting is based upon the same indicator. The reason that the system works is twofold. First, commodity prices rise over time so that being long them is the way to play. Second, by buying bigger positions when prices are low the system is biased towards buying low and selling high. This is a good thing. Finally the market action reading that we have been able to quantify seems to add a bit to the mix.

Addendum to 12:12 post on shortterm gold/gold stock indicators -- I used 30day exponential moving average! Other indicators that I follow include US$, Swiss frank, cry0,interest rates, gold stock composites with trading volume included, and the general stock market indices. When gold is in a bear market, I break even. Not too good on the downside yet.

D.A.: Thanks!

D.A., EB, et al....what is your take on the OJ situation? Will it regain the loss to even higher ground? & if so....possibly when?

Brazen Humbug:
I am not much of a "free-silver fanatic;" but I do dislike to see the people imposed upon by a set of editorial and oratorical frauds who brazenly juggle figures. Hundreds of papers, 'sputers and spouters are striving to create the impression that gold makes for high and silver for low wages; yet the biggest fool engaged in this disreputable sculduggery knows full well--if he knows anything--that he is perpetrating a brazen falsehood.

Goldbug editors and orators who, after laboriously comparing the wage rate of England and the United States with that of China and Japan, solemnly advise the American workingman that of he doesn't want to toil for a dime a day--"in depreciated currency"--and live on rice and rats, he should give the glad hand to the "cross of gold" There isn't an editor on earth with sufficient sense to dodge ":plate-matter" when wielding a pair of shears, who doesn't know that all such talk is the veriest tommyrot. There isn't an orator who employs it but does so for the express purpose of deceiving ignorant people. I here brand every man who indulges in such "argument" as a fool of the first water or deliberate fraud.

Certainly wages are higher in England and the United States than China and Japan, and of right ought to be, for the productive power of the energetic Caucasian, with his improved machinery, is ten-fold greater than that of the puttering Mongolian with his antedeluvian devices.

Every man versed in even the primary principles of economics, knows that the unit of value in vogue in a country has no more to do with its wage rate than with the number of wiggletails in its rainwater. We don't have to go to Ricardo, or Mills or Montesqueiu for this information--it is only necessary to turn to the latest published consular reports, which any man may obtain of his representative in congress, free of cost.

If the gold makes for high and the silver standard for low wages, how comes it that gasfitters receive $14.50 a week in Colombia and $18 in Venezuela, both silver standard countries, and but $4.08 in Germany and $3.40 in Italy, both on a gold basis ? How comes it that cigar-makers receive $12.50 and tinsmiths $14 in silver-standard Venezuela, and $4.80 and $3 respectively in gold-standard Spain ?

And when they have explained this matter to the satisfaction of the public, will they explain why gold-standard Spain is decaying, while silver-standard Mexico is going forward with giant strides ?

If a depreciated currency be responsible for China's low wage rate, why didn't it have a like effect in America previous to the resummption of specie payments ? Why did wheat go to $2.85 in 1867 and to .49 in 1895.

What a pity my birth wasn't delayed 30 years, so the blessed gold-bugs could keep me from being sand-bagged by a depreciated currency! While handicapped with "the evils of a depreciated currency" my people raised and sold wheat and corn, cattle and hogs, purchased more land and built comfortable houses and mammoth barns; but under "the manifold blessings of a stable gold-standard" they are selling the land because its produce will not yield a profit, and letting the buildings go to wreck because unable to repair them.

Then the old gentleman was wont to put $1,000 bills in the family bible and hide it under the bed; now when the tax-collector comes around he must go aborrowing. Seventy-five years of grinding toil has ended in "crucifixion upon a cross of gold"

XAU is finally getting off the floor that it's been bouncing along for the last several hours. Now at hight of the day, 106.82, with 45 minutes to go.

Spud Master re: my solar favourite

A couple more options:

1 ) Hydrogen - find a cheap way to separate the H's from all those 0-2's in the world's water supply and we could have a clean, self sustaining energy source - forever.
2 ) Fusion - build a better 2.3 giga-Joule laser and all we'd need is a swimming pool full of water per county per year to supply all fuel we'd ever need - forever.
3 ) Plain-old-fashioned- nuclear power ( preferably breeder reactors ) - find a way to neutralize radiation from the "waste" and we have all the power we need and new fuel for the nuclear reactors - forever.

All of the above are achievable although admittedly expensive. If the Manhattan project could design and build "the bomb" for $1billion ( 1940 dollars ) in less than 5 years, then why could the world not pool its resources and commit to a worthy goal? It'd be a better goal than the moon shot of the 60's ( or the continued Mir or Mars expeditions ) from which we have gotten relatively little return on investment.

Savage:

The fundamentals of juice are both good, bad and maybe. The good news is that at these prices no one is making money including the Brazilians. The bad news is that it takes a good deal of neglect to kill off the trees which are going to produce outstanding quantities of oranges. There are a lot of people in Fla who are determined to ride out the storm and are unwilling to part with their groves for fear that we are nearing a bottom, but their resolve is slowly being overcome by their bankers. The maybe part in the equation is mama nature. With the big nasty El Nino still working its magic there is a wildcard in the winter weather forecast. From what I have read there is a strong positive correlation between El Nino's and cold weather extremes in Fla. My strategy has been to wait until the Nov - Dec time frame before buying way out of the money calls in the hopes that a killer frost wends its way down from the Canadian northland. The interesting thing about the structure of the options market in OJ is that the implied vols over the frost season are no higher than in the time frame preceding it. This seems quite strange but it is the way it is. I must admit that with today's blasting I am quite tempted to get in early, but I think that I shall be patient none the less. The goal is to get in around Dec with a two - three month option about 20 cents out of the money for a couple of pennies. In the event that a killer frost finds its way into the groves the return could be 20 - 30 to 1 with not much difficulty. Between now and then I am hoping for a quiet sideways market at these low levels with a crushing of the vols.

All
G'day,
6Pack- who said that speach 15:01, was it still 1899 Congress? Thanks for your generous scholarship

Understand that some of the markets are closed on Monday for the Columbus Day Holiday. Do not believe that the U.S. Treasuries will be trading and maybe one of the commodities exchanges. Anybody have definitive info...

XAU finally breached the 107. Go!

Prior post: was speaking of the U.S. markets.

Aurator: Spotted your post! "Molten, graven,hammered,rolled" my next comment would be "I'll take it any way I can get it!"
Quiet day at work -- the main source of my discomfort is on a plane to Europe -- hasn't figured out a way to harass me over the Atlantic! It seems that many famous individuals such as he are famous because they are over achievers and manic! I wonder how many people kept Napoleon and others more notorious than famous under control.

aurator: Yes, the print was recorded in 1899, by W.C. Brann in his "The Iconoclast" publications from Waco Texas. These writings were put together by his wife, after Brann had been shot, and died.

William Cowper Brann

Brann was a husband, father, writer and businessman. He also could lay claim to having experience as a bellboy, printer, professional baseball pitcher, opera company manager, playright, journalist and newspaper reporter. Yet, he was uneducated.

He also must be acknowledged as a good shot, killing an opponent in a gun fight that some describe as a duel. This is untrue. Brann was shot in the back, turned and faced his assailant and shot and killed him. He most surely have would have said, in the words of the giffer, "honey, I forgot to duck".

http://www.usd.edu/~jwortham/brann.html

6Pack
I am stunned, W.C. Brann in his "The Iconoclast" publications from Waco Texas. my favourite kinda people, iconoclasts, that is, and, the Wacos will get a mention in a forthcoming speach. Did i tell ya i live across the road from the Alamo? true. ;- )
JTF

the rest of the poem begun by 6pack 13:55; written by that most prolific of poets, Anon.

Gold! Gold! Gold! Gold!
Bright and yellow, hard and cold,
Molten, graven, hammered, rolled:
Heavy to get and light to hold,
Hoarded, bartered, squandered, doled,
Price of many a crime untold;
Gold! Gold! Gold! Gold!
Good or bad, a thousandfold!

Aurator: Great poem! Anon really gets around, doesn't He/She/It? In my circles at work, its Mr. Default!
ALL: Here's a Web page with all the Fed officers, with Speeches from 1995 to present by our one and only A Greenspan!
http://woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us/info/sys/people.html

On this site you will also find the FOMC minutes from Aug 19,1997, if you have not already seen them. Interesting so see how they think!

Byron: Can you explain the Y. Auger XAU chart to JTF, Carl and to me once more. You have been looking at it longer than I.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.42 ounces to buy the Dow. The indicator still says that gold bullion has better prospects than the Dow Industrials.

aurator: Yes, also, my kinda people "Iconoclasts". I do not understand your statement "Waco will get a mention in a forthcoming speach"
I will accept, that you live across the road from the Alamo : ) : ) : )
Explain, what you mean by "Stunned". Also, do what you can, to get that University of Texas, to reconsider their mental attitude, of being Brain Dead, with regards to William Cowper Brann. This man was a great one, eh!
Thanks for the comments. Take care.

Panda: Good one about "denial"...spin-city...eh!...Looks like we are getting that Bond-stox divergence again...hm....where did I see that before?? JTF: Me two!- addiction that is....

Gold action today very encouraging. Bullion up 2 bucks. If it had followed the bear market pattern of declining further after big selloffs it would have dropped another $2.00 or so. Nice rebounds in gold stocks as well. I do not have the temerity to declare this shakeout over as yet. But I am quite confident it is just that -- a shakeout and not a resumption of the bear.

DA: Thanks much for your in depth reply!

That Fidelity Japan small stock fund I mentioned is up 4% since my first posting even though the Nikkei 225 has dropped several percent. If the gold funds are going to well over the next year, the Japan Funds -- and especially the small cap Japan Funds -- should also move. They stand to benefit from some of the same forces that can push gold -- a stronger Japanese economy, higher rates in Nippon, a stronger yen, and the repatriation of capital from the U.S. to Japan. Southeast Asia's problems have been pretty much discounted in the marketplace. Japan is indeed undergoing a severe recession, but isn't that the best time to buy good quality stocks on the cheap?

Carl: The Auger XAU chart uses the same two readings that JTF and I use to make our ratio. The difference is the way it is calculated. The formula is Spot/XAU = Auger number. Tonight that is 329.50/107.29 = 3.07
Thus, perhaps incorrectly, I thought that the distance between the red and blue points ( Auger No. and XAU ) measured risk in purchasing the XAU. The "touching" was only an alarm point that indicated maximum risk. Our ratio does the same but with a simpler presentation, done daily it can be kept in your head. The more complex Auger presentation is superior in that it clearly displays historical information and current trend. Regretfully, it can not easily be done in your head. Let's keep tossing this around. I am learning something.

There sure have been a high number of quality posts over the last day
or two. I have alot to think about -

Another 10/9 7:00 - Thanks for the follow up.
I have thought about what you said in the past and have 2 problems with the theory.
1 ) My personaly knowledge of the oil trade isn't strong enough to
agree/disagree with the theory.
2 ) The size of the gold reserves we are talking about are HUGE. By my
count, the US reserves alone are worth over 15 trillion dollars @ $300
gold. Controlling this much gold with derivities is alot different then
buying it. I don't think it can be done. I will continue to search/think
about this, thanks for sharing your ideas.

I am interested in the oil price corolation though - you think oil will
rise as the price of gold increaes or the price of US dollars falls? Then
I would think a great investment would be crude oil ( CL ) options. They
sure are cheap for 12/98 and 12/99.

D.A. 10/9 09:56 - I agree with you on the Palladium market. I think March
and June will see fireworks. I would expect huge liquidity bubble to be
felt in CL along with other stuff.

Nick - that casino you keep URLing was using a unsecured server when I
checked it out. One would have to be complete fool to gamble real money
there.

Goldbug23 04:19 - I disagree the Pack was lucky. The better team won.
Stats are easy to run up when you are 3 scores behind. With the new
rotation of the D-line watch Reggie lead the league in sacks this year.
Gasenieu's ( sp ) record of 22? is in jepardy IMHO.

Yes, we could go into details about the LBMA mess.
But why? They are in way over their heads and
the final outcome is on it's way.
A big change in the gold market actually started
last spring. You couldn't tell by the charts or news
stories but it had the CB trading rooms going nuts.
Up untill then they were using 3rd party transactions
to sell, then the boomshell hit that the Merchant
Banks were doing deals for 10 to 20 times what was
offered! Well "boys will be boys" and someone is
now stuck, big time! That's why "Big Trader" and his
bunch closed out all paper and pulled in bullion.
Don't worry about the CBs selling everything, the
market is huge compared TO WHAT THEY HAVE!
And
Comex is nothing, if "only a silly game". Worldwide
trading in gold could be cut in half and still equal all
the metal in existance!
The CBs will have to sell outright now even as the
currency price of gold starts to run away from them!

The market is changing now,,, it will go up but you
will not be happy with the outcome.

RJ 10:47 - I will be moving is a couple of weeks myself - any tips you
learned in the last couple of days? I was surprised to see you bullish
on silver, are you in agreement with Strad Master now? For the same
reasons? After experiencing the Palladium/Platinum markets this spring
I don't put much weight in warehouse stocks.

AUSSIE ALL ORDS VERY ORDINARY: http://www.afr.com.au/content/971011/market/markets1.html

George Cole: Re: Japan. My sentiments exactly, including Asia. Am not
jumping in just yet, but am looking for confirmed lows. Of note, one of Australia's better fund Managers, Kerr Neilson of Platinum Capital ( Ex Bankers Trust Australia ) is keen on about 10 Japanese Stocks, including Fuji Film & Ashati Brewery ( recently sold out of Fosters Brewery ) . Has a fair weighting in Europe & virtually none in the USA. While his fund has suffered a bit in the past year, he & Robert Maple Brown of Australia will probably emerge as the better long term value managers over the next five years. They are "mature" accountant types that lived through the 1974 crash. My sort of guys. Some of our younger fund managers didn't even experience the 1987 crash!! I suppose is there isn't as much down side in Japan as there is in the US!!! I know the onflow from Asia has NOT hit the USA ( or Australia ) like Mexico did in 1994. I think it is called "cockiness".

Another 17:26 - Yes, I am concerned with the outcome if your situation
plays out. I am curious how you are planning to deal with it. I don't
have an answer for myself.

Date: Fri Oct 10 1997 17:26 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

That was a very ominous post!!! Any clues to "you will not be happy
with the outcome"?????? Are we talking gold price or what will be left of stock markets/currencies?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/10/z0009_35.html

October 10, 1997
Clinton says IRS abuses won't be tolerated

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - President Clinton scrambled to keep pace with a wave of taxpayer unrest by proposing Friday to make the Internal Revenue Service more "customer-friendly." Republicans dismissed his reform proposals as toothless, guaranteeing a fight in Congress over how best to respond to taxpayer horror stories.
Saying he was "genuinely angered" by tales of abuses at the tax-collection agency, Clinton proposed establishing citizen watchdog panels to keep an eye on how local IRS treat taxpayers, expanding taxpayer protections, and bolstering the agency's service to the public.

Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin reiterated Friday that the administration opposes giving such a board authority over how the agency is run, but advocates say anything less would be too weak.

"The president's plan to loose a pack of toothless watchdogs on the IRS isn't a substitute for real change at the agency. It's a reaction, not a reform," said Republican Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/IRS.html

October 10, 1997
Canadian exporters threatened by depressed Asian economies

TORONTO ( CP ) - The economic woes washing over several Asian countries are rippling towards the West and threatening to swamp Canadian exporters.
From lumber producers to one of the world's biggest aluminum manufacturers, Canadian firms are hitting roadblocks as they try to sell their wares in parts of Asia. And it's hurting their bottom lines. Aluminium giant Alcan, for one, reported a big drop in third quarter profits Friday after a special $30 million US charge tied to losses in its Asian operations.

"Business conditions in Japan and Southeast Asia remain weak," chief
executive Jacques Bougie said. "It will get worse before it gets better," Jamnik said from Ottawa. The federal Crown financing agency, which helps exporters, predicted earlier this year that sales to Asian markets would grow by about 8.4 per cent in 1997. Sales to Japan were expected to grow in the range of 6.2 per cent. Those figures are now being re-examined in light of the economic slump in Asia.

Still, Canadian firms aren't looking at pulling out of the region, said Ron Richardson, an analyst with Vancouver's Asia Pacific Foundation of
Canada.

Forecasters predict the Japanese economy - once one of the most vibrant
in the world - is expected to grow by less than half of one per cent this year and only one per cent next year.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Canada-Asian-Trade.html

First time poster -
To Bart and the folks of Kitco...three cheers for a great service
A couple of requests to everybody out there...
Any thoughts on books that talk about monetary history, emphasis on the pros and cons of the Gold Standard, Silver/gold standard for US money etc...
The other request: Is there a Web page that gives stats on the Silver stored on the comex and in other depository sites??

Many thanks for all of your thoughts, it has been fun to follow everybody 's thoughts...

6Pak: "Business conditions in Japan and Southeast Asia remain weak," chief
executive Jacques Bougie said. "It will get worse before it gets better," Jamnik said
from Ottawa.

I had a similar post early this morning about Australians doing business with Indonesia. There are lots more posts like this in the future.

October 10, 1997
Ballard shares surge on positive publicity

VANCOUVER, Oct 10 ( Reuter ) - Shares in Ballard Power Systems Inc powered higher Friday after positive publicity about the company's fuel cell technology, traders said. Ballard stock was up 13.15 at 78.20 in Toronto after earlier peaking at 80.00, a new high. "The company is getting a lot of attention. There's a feeling that their research is paying off and ( the prospects for fuel cells ) are real," said one trader who declined to be identified. The rise followed a 5.80 gain on Wednesday when a feature article on the company appeared in The New York Times. Morgan Stanely also began coverage of the company with an outperform
rating on Tuesday.

A company spokeswoman said Friday there was no news from Ballard to account for the run up. Ballard earlier this year signed a deal with Germany's Daimler-Benz AG to develop jointly Balard's fuel cells and a car powered by the technology. Ballard has been a leader in developing fuel cells, which generate electricity without combustion and produce no emissions. Ballard has signed other alliances, is exploring still more and fuel cells are in use in transit buses The rise comes on top of a spectacular run in Ballard shares, which started the year at 27.75.

Check out the article "Monetary Fraud Omen of Economic Collapse" at url:
http://www.theWinds.org/archive/economy/money9-97.html

This site has many good articles and assays in the archives section:
http://WWW.THEWINDS.ORG/arcidx.html

In the Articles section there is an interview with former U.S. Congressman George Hanson who talks about his experience as a political prisoner under the title "US Gets Blood on its Beak" - simply amazing to say the least.

To All: Re ANOTHER's comments today. I feel somewhat the way a Physicist feels about a major new discovery -- more knowledge received, but the mystery deepens even more!
One thing is as I suspected, the CB's had surrogates in the private sector trading for them, and the gold trading got out of hand in some manner. Maybe the individuals involved decided to do some trading of their own. The derivative trading volume ( for the same desired effect ) kept going up, beyond what the CB's have in physical gold to cover. I think what is happening is something like what happens to a commodity being traded when the physical supply drops -- the price remains relatively stable until the stores run out, and then a sudden bull market in that commodity begins. What would happen if that commodity is gold? Perhaps the effect on the market would be far worse -- for example if gold is being "sold" to strengthen the US dollar to keep oil prices down -- what would happen to the dollar and oil if the supply of gold runs out? The dollar would plummet, and oil prices ( in dollar terms ) would skyrocket! All of this during an explosive bull market in gold -- using the commodity analogy.
I think the message here is that we would get our bull market in gold alright-- but it would be at the price of one of the most severe currency crises the $US dollar has ever seen.
I think the message is quite clear from ANOTHER. Nothing is truly safe except physical gold, because the gold bull market would occur during a rapid drop in the dollar -- perhaps similar to what happened in 1987, or perhaps much faster.
I hope I have stimulated some interest among our little group. These concepts may be essential to our own financial survival! This may lead to the financial crisis of the century -- I hope I am wrong, and I encourage all to discuss this matter.
For those of us with strong enough stomaches to trade, what do we follow? I would expect interest rates would start to rise during the beginning of such a crisis. The dollar would probably begin to drop slowly, at first, then precipitously, as in that period in 1987. Gold, gold stocks would probably rise at first if the process occurs slowly. The CB's have large stores of gold, that, if they tapped them, the news would eventually come out. But we might not know about the CB sales until after the fact. Any other ideas?

http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/llyfr.html

October 10, 1997
Ballard Power skyrockets on TSE

TORONTO ( CP ) - Shares of Ballard Power Systems surged by more than 29 per cent on the Toronto stock market Friday as investors continued to flock to the Burnaby, B.C. company that makes non-pulling fuel cells for
electric cars.

Ballard shares rose $18.95 to close at $84 on Canada's largest market.
More than 250,000 shares were traded. The share price of the company has risen $29.10 in the last week alone, a gain of more than 53 per cent in just five trading days. tne subsidiary is expected to begin production of fuel-cell buses shortly after the turn of the century. A prototype knowed as the Nebus - for new electric bus - is already on the road and is being tested in the United States by the Chicago Transit Authority.

The Canadian company is also working on fuel cells to run ships, submarines and stationary power plants.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Ballard-Stocks-Surge.html

Long before we wake up from our dreams of prosperity through an inflated currency, our gold which should have kept us from catastrophe will have vanished, and no rate of interest will tempt it to return.


Representative Louis T. McFadden ( R-Pa. ) Chairman of the Committe of Banking an Currency June 10 1932

He was lamenting the export of gold from the US to Germany, the US government was exchanging its gold for Germanys paper---almost every week there is a shipment of gold to Germany. On 4/27/32, $750,000.00, worth of gold, one week later another $300,000.00 In the middle of may of that year $12m in gold was shipped....


dja vu? echoes of ANOTHER.

BB chores to attend to LL

Spud Master, JTF: Dollars & oil. If the world monetary system continues to disintegrate as it has for the past few months no currency will be spared. As companies go out of business or reduce activity due to their inability to service debt the demand for oil decreases. This will have a deflationary impact on the gold price of oil. While oil could increase in dollar price it would be due to a less valuable dollar, not more valuable oil.

I don't know much about gold or coins, but I do know that most people

still don't want either. That's why I'm thinking about buying some gold

and/or silver coins. I'm on a very limited budget! Suggestions as to what

and where to buy? Price range of a particular coin? Thanks for any

help in this area.

-- Ron in Texas

Maverick re your 4:48 to RJ. Save your breath Mav. This "RJ" is the same blowhard who posts here trying to hawk Platinum coins, begging for business on his hands and knees in violation of Kitco posting rules and such and then when called on it, claims he makes "no money" on bullion coins and is doing these posts as a "public service". Yeah right, attracting business has nothing to do with it. RJ's ego has never been exceeded by anything or anyone as far as I can tell ( except maybe the size of OJ's legal bills ) . As for what "RJ" stands for, "Royal Jackass", and a long string of other adjectives have been used in the past to describe him. And those titles are all too kind in my view.

EB, I knew I should not make that post - there I was at midnight, still working after 16 hrs workday, tired, and p*ssed :- (
EB, it was nothing personal, I just ran across your post and went along to release my frustration about market behaviour - especially a significant one day drop. Just like you I "get confused, bothered, perturbed, flustered" when I hear about market fundamental, how the gold should behave, or where it'll go. I simply believe that the gold market, due to it's small size, is extremely volatile, easy to swayed one way or the other by short trades. Due to a speculative nature of gold market ( and PM in general ) I do not believe that anybody can predict it's behavior with precision which would allow mortals like me to make money on these up/down swing. Yeah, traders make their money, unfortunately I am not one of them. Well, you could say I should be out of it, however, I do believe that eventually gold will re-establish its historical role, it's just that timing of that event is difficult to predict. Yeah, I keep a part of my money in gold mutuals because I do believe that in the next couple of years the trend will change ( but I sure get frustrated with up and downs ) . Just for the record, so far I am breaking even - no money lost ( but neither gained )

It just surprises me that everybody is looking for "conspiracies", CB manipulation, etc., when I think the explanation is much more simple - it's how PM market works which causes the high volatility, and only when some significant crisis in financial markets happen gold goes significantly up. In between we moan and groan ;- ) . BTW, not much different from equity markets. It's funny to watch the posts of "cat people" get much more aggressive when DOW keeps going up and disappear from KITCO when it goes down

My reference to brainwashing was aimed at equity markets. I really believe that the extraordinary gains ( and I for sure benefited from them ) are maintained through a significant propaganda about "don't worry, be happy, things are good in our wonderland and stocks will grow forever )

Hey, I made some money on gold mutuals today ;- )

take care - Miro

Thursday October 9 8:01 PM EDT

Toronto stocks end sharply lower

TORONTO, Oct 9 ( Reuter ) - Toronto stocks ended sharply lower on Thursday as weak gold prices and interest
rate jitters battered Canada's biggest stock market.

The TSE 300 Index sank 60.96 points to finish at 7132.54 in brisk turnover of 123 million shares worth C$2.4
billion.

``Toronto is well overdue for a correction. It shouldn't be a surprise that the market is taking some action,'' said
Ron Meisels, president of Montreal-based P & C Holdings Ltd.

The heavyweight gold sector fell 143 points as COMEX gold futures fell after today's German interest rate hike.

COMEX December gold dropped US$6.10 to US$329.20 an ounce.

POSSIBLE LOST DATA

Part of the weakness in Canadian stocks on Thursday may be due to investor jitters over the direction of Canadian
interest rates, analysts said.

The Canadian Broadcasting Corp was scheduled to broadcast an interview with Bank of Canada Governor
Gordon Thiessen later on Thursday. ``The market may be anticipating some inter

You wondering why I posted old news Eh? Well because I find it interesting that the Canadian market drops when Gold falls eh, whereas the U.S. market reacts inversely to Gold. Maybe we should all move to the "Great White North?"

In taking aim at the Stock Market Greenspan warns against expecting the market rally to continue at the torrid pace seen in the last couple years:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger1009.html

D.A.
I too thank you for the detailed response on your system. Since I'm also a system trader, my ears are always open to other system traders.

Donald, when will the USofA attempt to inform the public, about the crisis, facing the USofA export market, regarding Asia. Big boys don't cry eh! The USofA, is in deep doo doo. Take care.

Any comments on bearish reversal in COT numbers for the metals??Do these things matter at turns as I remember COT bullish when Gold fell to 380. Or is the comex COT a small part of the picture and the bullish inventory draw downs and high lease rates a better indicator. A CTA I know told me, based on his studies, that the Commercials are ALWAYS wrong at the big turns. Comments.

LGB -- Re: your RJ posting; STUFF IT! I don't recall RJ hawking a damn thing here! In fact, you hawk more BS here than anyone! Put it where the sun don't shine! Most sincerely............................!

DOOOH! U stuff it buddy! Get a life

You have to read it to believe it. INCREDIBLE!!!!!! Is the American public so gullible?????????? ARE the SEC & IRS doing their JOBS?????
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/tsung1010.html

WW -- According to the COT reports, the commercials are correct at the turns. However, they seem to be 'correct for a reeeeeaaaaal long time before the turn. Likewise, the specs are also correct, but hang in through the turns. therefore, as an indicator, it may work over a LONG period but to trade upon or even to place a position, NO WAY! At least and unless you are VERY patient, and have VERY DEEP pockets!

Donald: Just saw your post re: Yauger. But am on the way out the door. Will try to answer tomorrow. You might also contact Yauger at his E-mail. I have contacted him in the past and he has always answered.

October 10, 1997
Ex-ADM executive pleads guilty to fraud

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - A former executive with Archer Daniels Midland Co. pleaded guilty Friday to defrauding his company of nearly $9 million with an elaborate scheme using foreign bank accounts. Mark Whitacre, the former president of the bioproducts division of ADM, appeared in federal court in Urbana, Ill. to enter the plea.

As part of his plea agreement, prosecutors agreed to recommend that Whitacre be imprisoned for between six and one-half years to eight years for the crimes. Whitacre aided a federal investigation into alleged price-fixing of agricultural commodities by ADM.

One year ago, ADM admitted fixing prices for citric acid and lysine and agreed to pay a record $100 million criminal fine.

He pled guilty to 37 counts of fraud, money laundering and conspiracy to defraud the Internal Revenue Service. In a separate federal price-fixing case pending in Chicago, Whitacre is scheduled to go to trial in May along with co-defendants Michael Andreas and Terry Wilson. Andreas is a relative of the former chairman of ADM, Dwayne Andreas. ADM's stock edged donw 6 cents to close at $23.875 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Homey Simpleton -- Here you go: http://www.kitco.com/pub/discussion/FINGER.JPG

Market News Service - Although Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan did not mention it in
his most recent testimony, the continued rapid growth of the money supply is becoming a concern to
some within the Federal Reserve system.
The continued above-target growth of the monetary aggregates also appears to be getting more
attention among Fed watchers.
Through the week ended Sept. 29, M2 had grown at an annual rate of 5.6% relative to its fourth
quarter 1996 base, and M3 had grown at an 8.4% pace, as banks have bid for large time deposits to
meet strong business credit demand. These growth rates contrast to the Fed's announced target
growth ranges of 1%-to-5% for M2 and 2%-to-6% for M3.
http://www.economeister.com/curracct/971010ca/usfed_ma.htm

Commercials added 7,190 contracts to their already large short position: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/cmxsf.htm

Japan's MOF Mulls Extending
Extra Deposit Insurance Fees

TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -The Ministry of Finance may ask
financial institutions to continue making supplemental
contributions to the Deposit Insurance Corp. to cope
with an anticipated increase in bank failures, sources
said Thursday. The ministry is leery of taxpayer anger
at government bailouts.

The commercials were wrong when they sold Gold at $330.00 and then they had the price move to $340.00. My take on it is that they did not like this. THey knew that the stops were at 328.00 and figured that it was in there best interest to sell gold and force it down to the stops. They then covered there shorts and went long again. THis is one reason the open interest changed so little on thursday. THe COT report was what the market looked like on Tuesday. Since then I can garentee that it is totally changed. At least in Gold. Silver problable has not changed to much since it did not move as much. Now if Gold is really going ot go up it can now do so and the commercials may not sell so quickly. Also "IF" Gold is going back up I would think it would do so soon or not at all. The verdict is not in if we are going back up. I would not assume it is dead yet althought momentum is very weak and the sellers are real and agressive.

Donald, ( If you're still there. ) Re Auger stuff. You might want to construct the following graph. Put XAU on the ordinate from 0 to 210, and gold on the abscisssa from 0 to 450. Then plot a parabola through points ( 441,105 ) , ( 400,137 ) , ( 390,140 ) , ( 330,157 ) reaching the ordinate at ( 0,210 ) . This line ( curve ) represents the place ( XAU ) on the Auger graph where, when gold is at a particular price, the red and blue lines will have to touch ( if they were to touch ) . The reason I originally looked at this is that I thought, looking at the auger chart, that if the two lines touching represented danger, as you said, then knowing the XAU at which that could happen, given a particular gold price, would give an idea of risk reward for given present XAU and gold prices. Then when I saw what was up ie. that the danger zone is at a lower XAU for $400 ( 137 ) than it is at $330 gold ( 157 ) , I realized that the vicinity of the two lines is very misleading. To top it off, when I carried through the analysis, it showed that it is mathematically impossible for the two lines to cross with gold above 441.

More gold 1402

I think the option stuff going on is front running. Take a look at at the New Dow options almost all activity has been call buying with some purxchases in excess of 40,000 lots. There is very little activity in the new Dow futures.

I think that after a VERY nasty Monday the Dow is going to rocket next week and all those options will be well in the money

For the curious.

INTERESTING. All the markets were down today except the resource weighted VSE, up 11.52 on huge volume.
One star in particular, Cross Lake Minerals had a net gain of 225% on the day.
Im NOT promoting this company, JUST want to point out this example, since many have written off the junior mining shares. There is still some life out there, and it may be starting to indicate a general revival in the sector.
The full story can be found at http://www.stockhouse.com/ in the INSIDER REPORT.
JUST a reminder to anyone not familiar with this type of investment,
get proffesional advice before getting into these very high risk investments..... : - ) )

G'day all. Enjoyed reading the last 12 hours posts. Would like to hear more from Another--especially that cryptic message at the end of his post.

Panda--enjoy your charts--esp. your 20:51 S & P.

When I was at University I studied science ( geology/biology ) . I always remember this little story. Game keepers decided to cull the deer on the Kaibab Plateau? in the U.S. as their population was exploding. It just so happened that the Walt Disney movie "Bambi" had just come out and the mothers with baby carriages and placards marched, carrying signs--"DON'T SHOOT BAMBI". Well, the politicos stepped in and forbid the cull. That year the deer ate everything in sight and then all starved to death. From what I hear the Kaibab Plateau has still not recovered ( what is it-35-40 years? ) . Sorry to be so long winded, but I always think of those deer when I see a chart like this one ( I posted last night as well ) .

http://www.cpcug.org/user/invest/sp1871.gif

Gold long term and short term bullish with a high probablity of a signficant rally within two weeks. The same for silver and the XAU. Bonds are short term bearish and remail long term bullish. The crb is both long and short term bullish. The dollar is both long and short term bearish. The major market indicies remain both long and short term bullish.

Thanks for your comments. Being on the floor of the Exchange allows you to interpret information in a very different light.

More gold

What I think is interesting is an overlay of the VSE , the Canadian $ , and gold charts

Miro - water falls off this guy...I vent, you vent, we all vent...venting-are-us...no biggie...

C.V. Compton Shaw - Is that your whole name?? Now...If you say the dollar is short/long term bearish can I assume that en and Mark are short/long term Bullish??

JTF - did you get my post to you regarding 'the pistol'?? Pretty mindboggling, eh?

Go MARLINS!!

away


Nick ( @Canberra ) -- This particular chart I keep around for a general indicator of the market weakness/strength. Sometimes it's actually good for making money! Imagine that! Usually it shows periods of market weakness rather than a 'crash' type scenario. So you can 'buy the dip' or 'sell the weakness'. The red or green overlay indicates whether we had an up or down close on Friday. A not so good way of determining who wanted to take home a position for the weekend. The two sub-graphs are the 4 week high/low ratio and 52 week high/low ratio. Again, these are more indicators of market internals. Then I kill a chicken, rip its' entrails out, combine that analysis with the chart, and decide if I will take any positions in the not so precious metals stocks. :- ) )

Donald: re-your 18:51 post. I agree that the demand for oil would go down if we have a world-wide recession or ? If this happens, the cost of oil in some stable currency would go down. What I suspect more and more will happen however is that the cost of oil ( in dollars ) will go up because the dollar has dropped. This scenario is simply based on what ANOTHER said - paraphrasing - the CB's "sell" gold in dollars whenever the price of oil ( in dollars ) rises. They can do this as long as they have gold they are free to sell. If they run out - heaven forbid - they will no longer be able to push up the dollar, and the cost of oil ( in dollars ) will rise. You don't even need a Middle East crisis for this! I have been thinking about this for the last few hours, and given that we have an extremely smart central banking chief, AG, he will find enough gold ( or virtual gold?? ) to give us a relatively soft landing. However, in the process the dollar will drop steadily, and we will have a strong rally in gold/gold stocks. However, if we have another world crisis, or Greenspan is no longer the Fed Chairman, watch out for a repeat of 1987 in spades!
Don't you find it interesting that ANOTHER seems to be responding to our posts? He posted once yesterday, and once today! I don't know who he is, but he does seem to be in the inside circles. I think he honestly wants us to know what is likely to happen, so we will be prepared for that "gold rally", but we "won't like" what comes with it. If he does explain that last riddle, I think it will only confirm what I just said. He has practically told us everything except "when" and "how much".

With platinum and paladium reaching new heights why hasn't Stillwater
( a pure metal play of these two ) move?
Figures from Aug 14th quarterly report ( SEC form 10-Q ) .
Forward selling for 1997 & 1998 - 38480 oz platinum @$382
" " " " " " - 451,275 oz paladium @$134

At todays spot prices this translates into roughly a loss of $33 million
that would mean a profit $1.65 a share instead of a 6c loss.

If they would have kept the metal off the market it would mean more
scarcity and higher prices. Sooo, if the mining experts don't know
whats going on who does?

This XAU chart is a weekly chart with volume. Now the volume represents a little over 95% of the actual total volume. ( I couldn't squeeze anymore data in! ) All of the heavy hitters are in the volume calculation and it is scaled for each stocks weighting in the XAU index. The idea was to show the level of 'interest' in the stocks that comprise the index. One last thing, multiply the volume scale by 100 to get the volume of shares. This weeks trading was in the neighborhood of four million 'adjusted' shares.

Seeing as how this is a slow night... I present a weekly chart of Comex gold. We closed the week just above the twenty week moving average. Shades of '93?????

Panda: Your XAU volume graph. I don't think one can say XAU trading volume has materially increased, as you would expect with a major gold bull market, but it is quite promising to see the increased activity at the day of the bottom. My impression is that it is as I believe George Cole said, buy on dips, but it is too early to buy on rallys. I am going to keep most of my powder dry for the next swing up - and a convincing rally.

Panda: To me your comex plot convincingly shows that we must be cautious. We could just be having one of those bulls in a bear gold market, just like the one we had several months earlier on your comex graph. Though I want to believe the bear in gold is over - we can't be sure on the long trend. It is so easy to focus on the little rally, and ignore the 1 1/2 year long bear!

Last chart for now. Daily gold chart that looks like some six year old kids with crayons got at it!

Panda: So, is the gold bear over? The optimist in me says yes, but I don't trust the market manipulators. Perhaps what we need is not a technical indicator, but rather a sign the AG and or the CB's have thrown in the towel! A good international crisis of some kind might do it.

JTF -- You're correct about the volume on the XAU. It seems to run around four to five millions 'shares', except for the low that was made back in July. That looked like a selling climax ( Easy, EB! ( grin thing ) ) . Back in 1993, the volume ran around two million.

Goodnight everyone -- the markets will be quiet for several days! Somehow I don't think Kitco will!

JTF -- I don't know if the gold bear is over or not. I do know that bear markets end and bull markets end. I think the PPI numbers combined with the falling four week moving average of the unemployment numbers has got the bond boyz worried. Cooked books and all. This PPI number came in at twice the expected number. All eyes will be on the CPI next Thursday. If the 'numbers' have already filtered through to this indicator on next Thursday... Look for bonds to do some loop-te-doops! I think that the CPI wouldn't show the PPI price increases yet. If it has, that would mean that there is pressure in the pipeline and the FED will act in November.

Good night all, if there is anyone out there................... :- )