Noticed since they have introduced opening the pit 1/2hr earlier:
9th Oct: Gap down, futures driven - market returns to 50% of initial loss - eod.
10th Oct: Gap down, futures driven - market returns to 50% of initial loss - eod.
13th Oct: Gap up, futures driven - market returns to 50% of initial gain - eod.
In reality the indices have gone absolutely nowhere during the rest of the day .
End result market still in the same position as prior to this change.

Gaps normally show signs of uncertainty - change

IMHO the market has no momentum but is being manipulated prior to opening.
Not a good sing for continuing the trend.

Unless AG could do this perpetually

What thoughts you gap watchers?

Seems like AG has just moved a pawn down to the 8th row and now has an extra queen?

Futureman - Would you take off! Now you've got Kitco confused. Yesterday is tomorrow, or some such! I can't find the current posts!

Bart@Kitco
It's happened again - 3 days in a row, when we can't access postings starting in the new day. Always seems to take a few hours before they become readable.
Hope you can rectify this.
Thanks

You're all caught in the time warp again, except me! Just looked at Bloomberg world equities, and the Nikkei is unchanged at 17,204 and Hang Seng is up 1%. Am I reading the wrong numbers, or have we got ourselves excited about a non-problem! Still must watch those Japanes banks, either way!

Anyone out there -- I can see my posts, but can anyone else?

Nick- I wish I could tell you what to do, but you probably won't see this for several hours. You just need to move the date forward to Oct 15, and choose 00:00-11:59. You are clearly more experienced in the market than I am, but my physics does allow me to move forward in time!
Haven't made any money moving two days in advance yet, but it is entertaining!
Aurator - Have you figured this out yet?

Heelllloooo! Anyone out there????????

Oh hello there Nick and JTF. Good to see you. Since we are the only ones here, and I've got you to myself, can either of you answer my question about futures trading I posted just before the witching hour?

JTF-
You know my view: Gold will make new lows when the world wakes to another announcement of massive CB gold sales. This is a pretty simple and basic view, not even all that clever, one that seems to be held by a few others hereabouts. I am truly amazed that some others would pooh-pooh this and then speak of gold stocks. A bit of the tail wagging the dog there I guess. Spot moves the market. The cash gold price drives the futures market, and a bit less directly, the gold mining stocks. It all flows from what one is willing to spend today for an ounce of the stuff. When some of the largest and most conservative holders of gold, who have never sold into the open market, would rather have what the gold may buy than the gold itself, look out below. Gold is dirt cheap here. Everyone should buy some, why not? I just think it will go lower before going much higher.

Silver looks to have support at 5.10, range bound to 5.30. Now, watch it tank tomorrow.

The pennant in platinum is screaming for a breakout. What's the rule of thumb here? A pennant breakout will usually follow the trend, which I would call decisively up. No guaranties but I still like platinum bestest.

DJ: I know nothing about futures trading, and my experience with options has been dismal! I'm great at choosing the right stocks, but they always move after my options expire! My better half told me to lay off derivatives.
Nick - you out there? DJ would get much more from you than me!

I hope it's slow enough tonight -- and late enough -- that Kitoites will let me get away with posting this.
------

Subject: NEW PARTICLE DISCOVERED
Author: Marcus Meissner, University of Erlangen
Newsgroups: sci.physics.fusion

I have discovered a new particle,
Background: There seems to be an awful lot of goofy things out there.
Threory: There is a fundamental force in the Universe associated with
this stupidity.
And voila:

the newest particle, the ridiculon.
The ridiculon is the carrier particle of the force of Ridiculosity.
Ridiculous things emit them at a rate linearly related to how
ridiculous or stupid they are, and they interact with matter in the course of the universal ridiculosity thermalization whereby stupidity seeks to spread through the universe until it reaches an even distribution.

Ridiculons themselves are the means by which ridiculosity spreads through
the Universe. Things which are more ridiculous emit more of them, and thinsg which have experienced nonscattering collisions with ridiculons become more ridiculous every time such a collision occurs. While the ridiculon itself is massless at rest, while in transit it has a nominal mass, which is why things get more and more dense as they get stupider. A material which has interacted with too many ridiculons will become very dense, and loses its quality as hadron or lepton, and instead becomes a new family of particle in itself, which I discovered in the course of my research and named a Moron.

Morons decay, because this overconcentration of stupidity cannot be stable for long, and they begin spontaneously emitting large quantities of ridiculons and many people around can detect the increased ridiculon emission and observe that the Moron is very ridiculous or stupid.

Ridiculons travel faster than the speed of light- this explains two things. One, this can explain how a stupid idea can propagate throughout an entire country in less than it takes to see the blank impression it leaves on poeples faces, and two, it fits nicely with the theory in general: Ridiculons, by definition the pure essence of Ridiculosity and Sutpidity, are ridiculous things, and it is fitting that they travel faster than light.

Ridiculous logic? Right on, because any theory that concerns itself centrally with ridiculons embroils itself in far too many ridiculons to remain sane for long!

I have observed other properties of these unique particles through experiments in my Ridiculous Particle Accellerator, at the National Laboratory for Improbable Science Grants in Pittsburgh, PA, as well.
For instance, it seems that ridiculons are not conserved. While the
conservation of matter and energy are not violated by ridiculons, it seems that a ridiculous thing can emit ridiculons aplenty without becoming any less ridiculous itself.

Also, ridiculons have a terrific concentration in humans, so much that
almost anythign they touch or make is ridiculous to an extreme! This has been verified by the vast quantity of human artifacts which exhibit the re-emission of previously absorbed ridiculons from humans, items such as Diet Cola, Cordless toothbrushes, Perpetual motion machines, soap operas, and polyester clothes.

By accelerating particles to ridiculous speeds in my Ridiculous Particle
Accellerator, I was able to get them to emit ridiculons as well. This was
measured by placing our log books next to the target chamber and running
several tests: Afetr a while, our our logged results looked downright
ridiculous- proof that ridiculons had done their work!

This is an exciting time in physics, and this new particle will explain much about why so many things are so ridiculous!

It is also postulated by myself that the ridiculon can help solve many of the world's great physics problems. For exmaple, Cold Fusion has failed until now. Why? Because ridiculons have been interfering with the carriers of the nuclear forces. Ridiculons will turn a perfectly functional device into putty or lime jello wihtout a second thought. They also keep cold fusion devices from working.

Here's my Lab's audit of the situation:
i. Cold Fusion device created.
ii. It begins emitting ridiculons.
iii. When device is activated, muons that would normally be carrying
the nuclear forces expereicne inetrctions with ridiculons.
iv. Because the ridiculon has mass while in motion, this collision
changes the course of the muon.
v. Not very long after this, the ridiculon-muon pair will become a moron.
vi. No longer carrying the forces requisite for attraction of nuclei for fusion, no fusion occurs.

The problem is inherent in cold fusion devices, because no matter what is done, there will be sufficient ridiculon emission to prevent fusion from occurring - the true heart of the problem is that cold fusion is ridiculous.

Also, there is the issue of spin. Ridiculons are unique in that they are
never quite the same. They possess an imaginary spin, that is to say a spin whic is an imaginary number ( I imagined it! ) , and this is because such a spin is truly ridiculous and this helps illustrate the property of stupid things such that if you start with an ordinay item, make it ridiculous, and then apply the operation again to it, no matter _how_ many times you apply the operation, even fractional applications, you will neither succeed in making sense out of the thing again or seeing the exact same ridiculosity you started out seeing. It will just remain ridiculous.

Also, ridiculons do not obey general relativity. This is illustrated well by the following example: picture a railcar moving down a straight track.
A ridiculon emitter is placed on the car. To an observer moving with the car, the ridiculon emitter emits ridiculons at a rate directly proportional to how ridiculous it is. For every unit distance the train travels, a ridiculon is emitted. To an observer stationary, only a few of these ridiculons should strike the general vicinity and the item will to said observer appear marginally ridiculous or not ridiculous at all, if the train is moving fast enough. However, in observations, it is apparent that the ridiculosity of the item is immediately apparent regardless of the speed of the train and that it is measured to be fully as ridiculous as it is at rest- and multiple detectors will measure the same full ridiculosity despite the apparent violation of the
distribution of ridiculon emissions over time.

Ridiculons do not share relative motion with their emitters. Things are just as stupid when moving quickly as they are when stationary, and moving them quickly will not stretch their stupidity out and make them appear less stupid at any given point.

More to follow later on this exciting discovery as soon as I get my research grant approved by the NSF!

What seems to work for me is :

set message length to short, set date 15th and submit.

for quotes on Nikkei try " http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u"

JTF - Thanks anyway.

Re: the timewarp, the only way I was able to get around it was to select short-text posts. Is this what the rest of you are doing?

Yes, DJ, you are consistent. Perhaps this crisis in Japan ( if it really materializes ) will be the trigger for that last round of central bank gold sales. What better way to keep the dollar up if Japan has to sell treasuries -- push gold down one more time. All this commotion at Kitco tonight is probably amusing to you, as you play both sides -- up and down. I have learned to trust the words of individuals like yourself ( and experienced commodity traders ) more than the ones who only have experience going long. Better to have a good perspective on both sides of the market. I have only been at this for three years, and still have alot to learn.

Dundee - You beat me by 2 minutes. Well at least you and I are getting thru this way. But everytime I submit a comment, I have to wait for all of yesterday to load up before I can re-submit for today. Bummer.

LME Dinner Speech
http://www.lme.co.uk/cgi-bin/cutting.cgi/11/0

I would now like to comment upon the unhealthy increase in market aberrations during the past twelve months. At different times Copper, Aluminium and Zinc have moved into large backwardations, in each case because of the build up of sizeable long positions on and around specific dates. In the context of increasing financialisation of commodities markets and increases in the rather opaque and unregulated OTC activity it is easy to build and finance substantial dominant positions and leverage these with options. While we in the LME cannot remain completely immune from what is happening in the world at large and the substantial increase in volatilities in other commodity and financial markets, excessive volatility especially engineered to create short term aberrations is very damaging for our market and its users by limiting the capacity of legitimate traders to hedge, causes great concern to those who use the LME's reference prices and creates excessive regulatory, commercial and moral burdens for the Exchange.

http://www.lme.co.uk/cgi-bin/cutting.cgi/13/0

The best help you could give would be to be very well behaved boys and girls for the next couple of years while we get it all sorted out. In red-blooded markets this may be too much to ask. But do your best.

JTF - Surely you meant to address the last to RJ, not DJ. He is CA and I am WA. OK?

Nick- In your second web site in your LME post, did you notice Oct 28 as the date to introduce a new "body". I'm too tied to figure this out now, but could there be a connection between new regulations on the LME, and what Greensapan will say?

Sorry DJ, that post was for RJ -- I'm about posted out tonight.

G'day Team

Pardon, I am unable to go back to see posts earlier this am, did: Gartner, Sherlock Holmes, or Another ( kinda like Auric's other nu#? ) post today any info that I should not miss?
thanks

OWWWWWHHHHHHHHH!!!!! I see a full moon
up above. Bodes well for a move up in Gold.
Plus a nice little bull flag on ABX.

Full Moon on Wednesday. Good chance for gold to move up.

Sollog
Could not John Denver = 'John the Devine'

Just wondering?

Whoa! Oz is here -- in force. Perhaps one of you folks can answer a question I posted earlier, just before the witching hour.

I've been looking at an investment possibility but need a quick answer before I waste any more time on it. In trading futures, if the commodity made a 5% move in 2-months, would you make any money, after all spreads, commissions, or whatever, were factored in? What % on your investment? Would it make a difference if you were short or long, as long as the move was in the right direction?

Would appreciate someone giving me rough numbers. I've not dabbled in futures to-date.

Aurator - you found us in the fifteenth of October! Good you missed what happend in the 13th. We had a good Kitco scare about Nikkei dropping below 1700! Had me going too! I think it is back up if I got my times right on the Bloomberg international site.
I do think we need to watch the Nikkei, especially if some key banks go under. A run of US treasuries comlements of Japan might give us that final drop in gold that RJ is telling us about.
You may get a kick out of the LME web site ( see Nicks post in Oct 15 ) There is a reference to a new "body" to be unveiled on Oct 28. New regulations for the LME I think, but probably still secret. Probably coincidence with the Greenspan date. No, Sherlock hasn't posted about the LBME, but the LME site from Nick is a great substitute!

Bloomberg now say: Nikkei 17,092 at 01:00 ( whatever time that is - Oct 15, or 14? ) . Propped up for now by someone or something.

Aurator: I was hoping for some pearls before I bed -- but my eyes don't cooperate anymore -- I will have to see the prose in the morn!

No one here any more? Perhaps I can get some guidance on my futures question form the early morning shift. Dosvidonya.

JTF Sleep tite!
Nick, already spotted your LME post. The speach reminded me of those I used to attend, you know, well meaning regulators, known, ( rather appropriately in the light of recent posting difficulties ) as Helens. ie Helen Kellers. Cos once i was one. and now i isn't.

"I believe, that in a well-ordered market, those in the market know it is their best interests to behave honourably, therefore they should be allowed to regulate themselves. "

Yeah, right... vampires in charge of the bloodbank.


JTF

If I had my druthers ( one of my most favourite amerikanisms ) I'd be in the souks instead of working. Now, where did I leave my Deerstalker, Watson??

Can anyone provide name, phone number of West Coast ( Wash., Ore., Calif ) buyer of Gold, Silver, Platinum coins at a price better than spot. Monex, and Affordable ( Portland ) will pay up to spot, but not above. Is this typical?

Can anyone provide name, phone number of West Coast ( Wash., Ore., Calif ) buyer of Gold, Silver, Platinum coins at a price better than spot. Monex, and Affordable ( Portland ) will pay up to spot, but not above. Is this typical?

http://www.usagold.com/Daily Quotes

MARKET UPDATE ( 10/13/97 ) AM----- Gold opened lower today, selling off on light volume in overseas trading. With the Columbus Day Holiday in the U.S., all of the major financial markets are closed for trading which is affecting the precious metals as well. Venezuela again denied that it may sell gold to repay some debt, trying to rebut the rumor that was floated by the anit-gold forces and short sellers last week. Since we reported the September PPI index came in at +0.5% which was higher than expected, all attention is now focused on the CPI index which will be released this week. Regarding the PPI index, it was the second straight monthly gain and the largest gain since December 1996. This number bodes for higher inflation from now into the future. But today the stock market is gaining back ground which it lost last week by rising 45 points in mid-morning trading. Bonds are closed for the Columbus Day Holiday as are the foreign currencies.

In other metals markets, platinum and palladium are sharply higher today again on concerns about another disruption in Russian shipments into 1998. Producer Johnson Matthew said that Russia would ship less platinum than forecast and that China would import more than forecast. We will update you if anything develops. If not, then that is all for today.

This is only a test.............



Iran Warns U.S. During War Games in Gulf: http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/gulf_3.html

Suspected Islamists Kill 11 Policemen in Egypt
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/egypt_2.html

Mahathir accused of outrageous provocation by Jews
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/14/z0000_2.html

Plague Fears Mount in Storm-Wrecked Acapulco
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/pauline_5.html

Officials: Indonesian Forest Fires Spreading
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/fires_1.html

Must be time for beddy-bye.......

G'day Southerners.....

DJ - why are you so vague regarding your futures question. You must be more specific to receive a specific answer. And if you are 'just dabbling in futures'...write me a check and we'll cut out the middle-men ;- ) Do your homework...

away...to slumber


Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Bart-- flip your clock over to the 14th, mate. I'm blind!!

Nick@C Commodity prices take stocks down
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971014/business/business7.html

oAsian miracle melts down
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971013/perspective/perspective1.html

oHow SE Asia's economy came unstuck
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971013/perspective/perspective2.html

Crash fears spark sell-off
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971014/business/business1.html

US set to tighten its money belt
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971014/business/business12.html

Finally able to view again.
Aurator no the 15th doesn't work for me. I tried them all.
Dow chart now starting to resemble Nikkei early August.
T/A friend says that 80% chance of breakout to the downside on these wedges. He sure was right about the Nikkei one.
I gave him heaps on that one as he had no money on it.

That was then, this is now... but markets are still markets
http://www.brw.com.au/fr_cover.htm

Traders brace for 1987 anniversary waltz
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/finance/4230971.htm

MIM enjoys the rush
The mine would have cash costs of less than US30c a pound for copper, making it one of the most economic copper mines in the world. In addition, it would produce 750,000 ounces of gold annually.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/finance/4223414.htm

G'day all. Nick@Aussie-- were you posting blind today?? I tried the 13th, 14th, & 15th- couldn't see a thing. Have gone through most of your posts--you're a whiz, mate. Hardly need to read the newspapers the way you and Donald separate the wheat from the chaff!!! Especially thanx for the MIM post--didn't know they would soon be digging up 750,000 oz. of the good stuff to go along with all that cheaply mined red metal. I've got a fairly large position in MIMs but may even add to it. If nobody loves copper--must be time to buy!! Only way to make money on somethin' is ta buy em when nobody loves em!! With that reasoning--most Kitcoites should be quite wealthy in a year or so.

Have got to post a little song from the Bankok Nation in honour of Dr. Mickey.


Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm-- in my best Paul McCartney voice:

Yesterday, all my Soros seemed so far away,

Now I know this mess is here to stay,

Oh, I believe in yesterday,

Suddenly, I'm not half the worth I used to be,

There's a thick haze hanging over me,

Oh, I believe in yesterday.

Why did the ringgit have to go, I don't know, it wouldn't stay,

I said something wrong and now they call, I have to pay.

Yesterday, stocks were such an easy game to play,

Now I have to run and hide away.

Oh, how I long for yesterday.

Glenn commented a couple of days ago ( speaking of gold of course ) that the sellers were real and aggressive. A large question mark has been looming over me ever since as to what that means. Are aggressive sellers trying to sell as much as possible as quickly as possible...or are they selling as much as it takes to drive the price back down? Normally people would want to get the best price possible for something they wished to sell....which would tend to make them less aggressive....more patient. Unless of course they was another reason ...eg price manipulation. If someone sells a large amount quickly because they fear the price is falling...I would associate the word fearful or panic-stricken rather than aggressive. Was there a reason the word agressive was used? ( I would like to erase the mental question-mark which has been following me. )

Jo'burg down 1.46%

http://satellite.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNW/page/cyber.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/y0004_z00_30.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/14/z0009_17.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/y0004_z00_29.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/14/ala_dlj_i_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/12/y0004_z00_4.html

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/FOMC/

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/y0004_z00_24.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/14/z0009_33.html

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/politics/stories/gulf_2.html

Currency Crisis Hits Vietnam

HANOI, Vietnam ( Vietnam became the latest casualty
of the Southeast Asian currency crisis as the central bank said
it would allow the dong to fluctuate in a wider band against the
U.S. dollar yesterday. Regional economists have been
expecting Vietnam to follow other Southeast Asian nations like
Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, which have
allowed market forces to push their currencies lower in recent
months.

http://www.gold.org/Pages/Wgmc1.htm

For those of you who are interested, George Milling-Stanley's weekly gold commentary is now up on the WGC's web site. -- Parn --

10-15 is a full moon, sollog and the pope have a date
that won't wait.
witness the calm before the storm-------------
red at night sailors delight, red in the morn sailors take warn....

sailors of stocks take warn, it was red this morn!

cherokee!; ) passing-the-pipe

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/avgly_gld_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/14/y0004_z00_6.html

Donald-- The Japanese bank implosion seems to have started!! IMVHO this is just the first of many Japanese bank belly-ups to be reported. The Finance Ministry will ration the failure reports so as not to cause undue concern. I was pleased to see that Koufuku bank has bailed out Kyoto Kyoei Bank. Pity the poor depositors have been Koufuku'd!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/14/z0006_z00_2.html

Cherokee: Pass the pipe this way......The flux must be hiting Cape Breton first as my usual reliable ( ? ) ISP has been down for 14 hours...

Nick@C: There was talk that the Koufuku bank would merge with the Youssef Bank of Saudia Arabia. The new name, Koufuku-Youssef Bank, caused some depositor concerns.

Have a "hot tip" for you all....The parent compnay of my yocal ISP is Hook Up ( har har ) Communications out of Ontario...Symbol HU ( TSE ) ...Hey it's cheap ( 29 cents down from 3.20 ( wonder why? DUH! ) If you don't mind daily downages...a 800 tech # where they tell you to call back and don't even put you on hold....and a yocal # where they NEVER return your calls---they are the company for YOU!!...

G'day Ted. Just heard the reports from Hawaii today , mate. It appears the Aussie teams have won both the men's and women's conoeing championships!!! The long distance race was from Molokai to Waikiki beach-- ( 70 something kilometers ) and the Aussies showed up all the Yank teams!!! Bet a lot of Primo beer was downed in Alohaland today. Come on out to OZ and we'll show you Yanks how to paddle them kayaks and canoes, mate!!!

Yeah,but I wasn't there....got the fastest kayak in the "West"...

Donald, all: Donald - -Your intuition or? about SE ASia are coming true. The deflationary process is spreading to Japan, and will soon reach the shores of the US. My guess is that our AG will push up the dollar by "selling" gold, at least for the next month. Looks like the Oldman and RJ were right! All that buying ( this correct? ) of gold coins in the US just indicates that the gold bottom is near. Despite what ANOTHER says, I do not expect gold to go up for the next several weeks at least - simply because who we have at the helm of the Federal Reserve is probably our most adept leader ever! He certainly knows gold! How else can our White Night prop up the dollar?
The rally in gold is near -- but we must weather the October 87 10th anniversary, and the effective Jan 98 deadline of the EMU.

Donald--I have been conducting most of my international trading through Citibank-- but will now seriously consider switching my accounts to Koufuku-Youssef Bank. I have for a long time been short of a riposte to my bankers--and with your help I have finally found one!!!

JTF: The economic news appears good but it is being overwhelmed by bad financial news. Greenspan has speeches scheduled as well as Tietmeyer of the Bundesbank. Coincidence or planned, who knows.

Nick@C Just watching a tv show - abc lateline. An interesting view on Asian economy's and where they are heading. ( gloom & doom ) . Jesper Koll was on the show and an interesting speaker, so I did a web search and came up with this one.
An interesting speculation as to when the Japanese markets will be a buy. Not yet, more turmoil to come.

TOKYO -- "For the American financial community," says Jesper Koll, an economist at J.P. Morgan in Tokyo, "Japan is the land of opportunity."

http://www.csmonitor.com/durable/1997/09/17/econ/econ.1.html

Land of the Rising Imports? Trade Surplus May Reverse
Japanese policymakers, though actually knowing better, says Ostrom, tend to embrace what economic historians call mercantilism. The policy was a hallmark of post-feudal Europe, as many nations sought to encourage exports, block imports, and build up stocks of gold bullion. To modern economists such a policy looks foolish.

http://www.csmonitor.com/durable/1997/09/17/econ/econ.2.html

Debt, Deflation and Hyperinflation

The Coming Economic Collapse

From Dec. 6th, 1996--still sends a chill down my spine, ala Puetz. Concept correct, timing wrong???

http://home.istar.ca/%7Elowen/


Nick@Aussie--appreciated all your great posts today, mate. Am waiting to jump back into Japanese shares, but the postings on this site keep scaring me off!!!. I'm gonna bite the bullet soon and tell Kitcoites to bugger off--so's I can buy cheeeeaaaap Japanese shares!!

09:14 GREENSPAN: GOLD STANDARD 'WORKED RATHER WELL'.

Varvara...more....more...more....!!

Gold options for 10/13/97:
Sorted by open interest descending.
This does not show all options.
Not sure but think that the value of these options = close x 100

Calls Close VOL OI
GC8GC360 1.1 402 15327
GC7ZC390 0.1 1096 13122
GC7ZC360 0.2 7 12924
GC7ZC340 1.5 1926 12231
GC7ZC480 0.1 27 12002
GC8JC370 1.3 362 11756
GC7ZC370 0.1 126 11311
GC7ZC400 0.1 5 11123
GC7ZC350 0.7 233 10163
GC7ZC380 0.1 122 9677
GC7ZC330 4.6 101 8933
GC7ZC410 0.1 2 6758
GC8ZC470 0.3 14 6506
GC8MC370 1.8 59 6287
GC8GC370 0.6 336 6096
GC8ZC420 0.8 20 5417
GC7ZC345 0.9 292 5174
GC8ZC350 8.7 20 4985
GC8GC350 1.9 385 4904
GC8GC400 0.1 1 4582
GC8MC440 0.1 1 4501
GC7ZC430 0.1 5 4487
GC8MC380 1.2 3 4418
GC8MC400 0.5 2 4244

Puts
GC7ZP330 4.7 106 10866
GC7ZP310 0.5 470 9172
GC7ZP320 1.6 173 7182
GC7ZP315 1 51 6916
GC7ZP300 0.2 390 6007
GC8ZP320 5.2 2 5347
GC8GP350 21.1 500 5178
GC8JP320 4 10 5058
GC7ZP340 11.7 16 4706
GC8GP310 1.2 28 4421
GC8GP320 2.9 42 3665
GC8JP310 1.6 4 2896
GC7XP320 0.2 27 2859
GC8GP330 6.1 54 2829
GC7ZP360 30.2 1 2828
GC8MP340 12.4 1 2735
GC7ZP325 2.7 477 2506
GC7ZP305 0.3 1 2460
GC8MP320 4.3 4 1932
GC7XP330 0.1 185 1770
GC7ZP290 0.1 4 1688
GC8ZP340 12.5 2 1535
GC8JP340 12.6 16 1525
GC8GP340 14.2 1 1161
GC7UP330 1.7 364 1100

Does anyone here trade these options and if so could they explain the pricing.

Don't know why I'm posting this data but it sort of shows where the bias lies and also shows how cheap out of the money calls are out to '98.

Have been looking at these gold options through MS Access and some interesting info hidden in there. Especially where the open interest on out of the money calls, over $400 is rising.

J'burg -22.4 ( -2.10% )

Turkey +164 ( +5.38% )

Sell your gold and get
in early for Thanksgiving, folks!!

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets

Donald & JTF, I am still not very optimistic about the US economy. Reasons: wage pressures here at ground level are really spiking. ( Staws in the wind - $10/hr. retail jobs for holidays here in Kalamazoo, computer people are nearly impossible to get and hold, example - one of my children just got his 5th raise in under two years, another has a friend in his doctoral program in computer science who was having trouble and left for silicon valley for $85 K plus &15K signing bonus. ) Another reason, the SEA devaluations are about to unleash a flood of cut rate exports. It seems to me that inflation in costs is about to hit deflation in product prices head on and it will not be pretty for the economy.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/14/z0009_49.html

It's been 46 trading days since the Dow topped. If it doesn't break up in next 9 trading days then this index is at a failure point.

Dow - SPX. Once again an opening gap bouncing off yesterday's high. If this index closes at approx 8090, I'll be just that little bit more confirmed that it has little or no life left.
Tick already heading into the red.

IMHO
This new bottom that gold/silver is falling into could be the last ticket to get to ride this behemoth to the moon.
I believe that 90% of all neccessary ingrediants are already known and aboard. Time, patience and the whistle-master will blow.

Nick@A: On the 55 day Fibronacci count: do you use calendar days or trading days? Is there a correct way?

Looks like Palladium is dong its' own 'moonshot' today.

I really have to wake up before typing! Also have to check the 'Caps lock' light too. :- )

Carl: I agree that we have a tug of war between inflation and deflation.
Currently the trend within the US appears inflationary, though your computing reference to salary growth may be unique -- I've noticed this too -- may be y2k related and not really comparable. AG's expansion of the dollar is inflationary, though I think he's trying to inflate the dollar overseas only -- must be temping to "sell" gold to keep the dollar relatively strong - even with derivatives this will eventually come home to roost.
On the deflationary side, we have all of the goods coming from SEAsia at dramatically lower prices, and reduced demand for US-produced goods. It is hard to tell whether inflation or deflation will prevail in the US, but deflation is by far the greater concern.
I agree with one of the Nicks - don't recall which one - that Japan is going to be a buying opportunity eventually - given their $10 trillion is savings - this is the likely power house that will pull the world out of the deflationary trend, now that the flood gates are finally opening. Too bad it took the Japanese this long to do what they should have done years ago. Don't really need gold, do they? It's the western world that needs gold.
Beside deflation, our only other real financial threat is a major ( world-class Japanese? ) bank failure during what is probably the end of the turmoil in Japan. Have the Japanese tapped their saving accounts to prevent this? Interesting times.

I'm now down to less than 10% equities in the market ( of total assets ) , and what I have left long is in natural resources and gold.

Donald - Trading days. I have read some statistical data on this and seems very convincing.
Have a look at the Nikkei early Aug - overlay the Dow - very similar. That wedge thats forming has an 80% chance of breaking to the downside.
I think that the correction is already a forgone conclusion, just like the one that gold has already bottomed.
One only needs to look around to see that most of the criteria needed for the event is already present and onboard. So much T/A criteria being met.
I have no idea as to how it will unfold but the signs are there that it will.
I can't imagine AG letting the next blowoff up happen, it would just make the correction even worse. He capped it beautifully the other day and will do so from both sides in the future, trying to bring this monster down gently. I just can't see him being able to hold it together after the margins start to get called in.
Sorry for the rave but I'm all aboard.

Of course I could be wrong, but like hepcat calling 325 for two months and then being right, I think I'll be right, given time.
Not to much time, I think.

Nick ( aussie ) - Try this. http://router.minot.com/~bohl/#OPTIONS It's updated daily and the prices are accurate. Check with your broker. And there is reason why those out-of-the-money calls are cheap ( it will take an Incredible leap for them to even start to gain wealth ) ...this URL also gives you #'s for calls and puts transactions...but it doesn't say if they were bought or sold...

Donald - Trading Days for 55

Ted - Ya Bogart... pass it over here... welcome back...

ALL - Good trading today...

away...to the grind


Varvara: Do you have anything more about A Greenspans reference to the gold standard? Is the Oct 28 announcement going to be about e-gold? A new gold standard? That would certainly be a hot topic! Wouldn't he wait for something like this until well after those fall months when the market tends to be shaky? How could he phrase this in a manner to talk the market down gracefully?

Here is his speech ... not much help to us goldbugs!!

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/19971014.htm

Anyone following Carmelita Resources, CFH on the VSE. They seem to have
excellent properties in Guyana. Let me know what you think.

http://www.carmelita.com

Todays remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/19971014.htm

Avid chatter:
Anyone who did not read 'market watch' from Barrons this weekend here is an interesting observation. It is from the Oct. 7th issue of Hegarty's Options Navigator. "Over the 11 days of this expiration cycle, globex has gained 23.35 S&P pts. Over the same period the day session from open to close has LOST 2.45 S&P pts. As documented many times over the last four years, bull markets are relatively weak in the morning and very powerful between 2 and 4 pm. This market behavior is the antithesis of what we saw throughout 1995."

I have lost the access to Kitco for many weeks. In Tokyo, my information set is totally different from others. Mass media is controlled everywhere. The highlight is that the Japanese politics is going back to exactly what it was before the bubble explosion. What did the US do in 1933 and 1934? Japan has done nothing. What does it mean by deregulation? I want to know.

EB - Yes, I guess my request was a bit vague. I was just looking for a ballpark answer. If you care to provide your e-mail address I'll be happy to go into more detail, but don't want to bore the general audience with my fantasies.

DJ - I LOVE a good Fantasy

Fire ...

AWAY


To all: Re-AG's Speech at the 15th Annual Montetart Conference of the Cato Institute, Oct 14, 1997.
I will not summarize the speech, but focus on his comments relating to gold, addressed by one entire paragraph -- I have tried to correct all typos -----
"In the last comparable period of open international trade a century ago the gold standard prevailed" ....
"International stabilization was implemented by more or less automatic gold flows from those financial markets where conditions were lax, to those where liquidity was in short supply. To some, myself included, the system appears to have worked rather well. To others, the gold standard was perceived as too rigid or unstable, and in any event the inability to finance discretionary policy, both monetary and fiscal, led first to a further compromise of the gold standard after World War I, and by the 1930's it had been essentially abandoned.
The fiat money systems that emerged have given considerable power and responsibility to central banks to manage the sovereign credit of nations. Under a gold standard, money creation was at the limit tied to changes in gold reserves. The discretionary range of monetary policy was relatively narrow. Today's central banks have the capability of creating or destroying unlimited supplies of money and credit" ....

My spin on this is that the recent advent of electronic money -- raises the risk of money creation "without limit". What I think AGreenspan is alluding to - is that the new electronic methods of handling money also offer the oppotunity to create an e-gold currency which will not have the limitations of the traditional gold standard. Remember what I said about that United Kingdom ( Univ of Warwick I think? ) Symposium in 1990 by the NBER, and the British equivalent? A large proportion of that symposium covered the aspects of moving back to the gold standard, even one section on why this most be set up in secret! Makes one wonder if the activity at the LBME is related to the birth pangs of our new e-gold currency!
I leave all of this to the gold specialists as to what this means! For my part, I hope AGreenspan can pull this off. It is interesting that he is even willing to talk publicly about the gold standard. I hope he is not just talking to the conservative types at the Cato Institute.

Hey George where is that big market decline ya promised us for October and where is that huge gold rally you said started three weeks ago? Probably next month Probably next month probabaly next month. Like LGB says a stopped clock is right ONCE a day so keep giving us your bogus predictions and SOMEDAY one of them will actually be right but in the meantime anyone who has followed your advice for the past year ( years ) is BROKE.

Hi

Where's that other sage of kitco?

JFT: I see you found the speech. I think your analyses is correct Greenspan is trying to lower the hammer easy and I think it is because of Doctor M.'s statments about currency speculators.

EB thanks mate

John Q Public - Sounds like a stuck record. Give the player a thump or pull out the plug!


Comments on the wedgie:
http://www.nirv.com/communit/comment.htm
The Producer Price Index came out today and was strong and spooked the markets, but not much. The damage "should" have been worse. We have been talking about market top predictions for this cycle. Here is another one. The S&P and Dow appear to be tracing out rising wedge patterns. In Elliott wave theory this is called a diagonal triangle. Diagonal triangles and rising wedges are ending patterns. Curtis Arnold found that the rising wedge was the most reliable pattern he analyzed, although he could not find enough of them to be statistically significant. Also in Elliott wave theory, wave 3 cannot be the shortest. Since wave 3s of the current triangles are less than their respective wave 1s, wave 5s must be shorter than their respective wave 3s. What does all that mean? If these are indeed diagonal triangles, the Dow cannot go above 8347 and the S&P December futures cannot go above 1014. Continue to watch Dell. So far it is tracing out a perfect triangle. Any break out to new highs will be another indicator of a top for this cycle. Beware the ides of October.


Portions of AG's speech:
Some argue that market dynamics have been altered in ways that increase the likelihood of significant market disruptions.
As a result, a disturbance in one market segment or one country is likely to be transmitted far more rapidly throughout the world economy than was evident in previous eras.
In earlier generations information moved slowly, constrained by the primitive state of communications. Financial crises in the early nineteenth century, for example, particularly those associated with the Napoleonic Wars, were often related to military and other events in faraway places. An investor's speculative position could be wiped out by a military setback, and he might not even know about it for days or even weeks, which, from the perspective of central banking today, might be considered bliss.
As the nineteenth century unfolded, communications speeded up. By the turn of the century events moved more rapidly, but their speed was at most a crawl by the standard of today's financial markets. The environment now facing the world's central banks--and, of course, private participants in financial markets as well--is characterized by instant communication.
But achieving those benefits surely will require the maintenance of a stable macroeconomic environment. An environment conducive to stable product prices and to maintaining sustainable economic growth has become a prime responsibility of governments and, of course, central banks
Today's technology enables single individuals to initiate massive transactions with very rapid execution. Clearly, not only has the productivity of global finance increased markedly, but so, obviously, has the ability to generate losses at a previously inconceivable rate.
Moreover, increasing global financial efficiency, by creating the mechanisms for mistakes to ricochet throughout the global financial system, has patently increased the potential for systemic risk. Why not then, one might ask, bar or contain the expansion of global finance by capital controls, transaction taxes, or other market inhibiting initiatives? Why not return to the less hectic and seemingly less threatening markets of, say, the 1950s?
Rather, we should recognize that, if it is technology that has imparted the current stress to markets, technology can be employed to contain it. Enhancements to financial institutions' internal risk-management systems arguably constitute the most effective countermeasure to the increased potential instability of the global financial system. Improving the efficiency of the world's payment systems is clearly another.
Hence, human judgments, based on analytically looser but far more realistic evaluations of what the future may hold, are of critical importance in risk management.
In these and other ways, we must assure that our rapidly changing global financial system retains the capacity to contain market shocks. This is a never-ending process that requires never-ending vigilance.

Hong Kong's Finance Secretary, the fast-talking, bow-tied Donald
Tsang, was on the way to a TV studio to join in a panel discussion when
he abruptly turned to one of his minders. Who else would be on the
panel, he demanded to know. His adjutant recited a few names.

"As long as one of them is not named S-O-R-O-S," Tsang shot back,
spelling the word to avoid speaking the name of the world's best-known
speculator. "Because if he is there, I will strangle him with his own tie,"
exploded Tsang, the third-ranked figure in the Hong Kong Government.

The Prime Minister of Malaysia, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, has been
conspicuous in vilifying the American billionaire publicly -- as a "racist",
"moron" and "criminal" -- but it would be wrong to imagine that
Mahathir's is an unrepresentative voice.

It is important to recognise that Mahathir is in fact the spokesman for a
much bigger group of politicians, officials and industrialists across Asia.

They are deeply angry that US speculators such as George Soros have
aggravated the region's unfolding economic crisis. And they see in it
much more than a simple exercise in market speculation.

The leaders of nine nations of South-East Asia, representing an entire
region and more than half a billion people, issued a joint communique
darkly blaming "outside forces" for "well co-ordinated efforts to
destabilise" their currencies and their economies.

Mahathir is the natural spokesman for he has long cast himself as an
Asianist, waging an unequal battle against the rich and arrogant imperial
powers of the white West.

Mahathir used an address to an International Monetary Fund seminar last
weekend to attack currency trading as "unnecessary, unproductive and
immoral . . . It should be stopped. It should be made illegal," Mahathir
told the perplexed audience of international financiers and central
bankers.

The Kuala Lumpur markets responded promptly to Mahathir's outburst,
with the ringgit losing 2 per cent in trading on Monday and Malaysia's
composite equities index shedding 3.5 per cent.

Monday's fall of the local currency was on top of a 20 per cent
devaluation in the Malaysian ringgit over the past few months, a loss of
similar dimensions to that suffered by Thailand's baht and the
Indonesian rupiah.

Soros was also quick to respond, telling a Hong Kong audience on the
following evening that Mahathir was a "menace to his own country".

The South-East Asian currency crisis has brought new tensions to the
region's relations with the West, unleashing a wave of race-based
emotions that have been festering for years.

It is telling that, on this issue, Mahathir not only won the ready support
of all South-East Asia, including four democracies, but also the
endorsement of even Asia's most westernised leaders.

Donald Tsang, for instance, accepted a knighthood from the Queen of
England mere hours before Hong Kong reverted to China, a time when
other Hong Kong worthies thought it prudent to decline such honours
from a dying regime.

Still, the Asian anger might have been contained on that level, an
argument between governments on the one hand and private investors on
the other, but it was transformed by one crucial event.

The US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, spoke out to defend
Soros, putting all the prestige and the power of the US Government on
the line -- and not just in private talks with Mahathir, but also in public.

That was a threshold event. Immediately, the argument became one
between nation states. The US Treasury Secretary, Robert Rubin,
continued to fight on behalf of Soros and other speculators this week in
Hong Kong. Senior figures around the world -- including some very
senior officials in Australia -- believe that this was a dangerous cause for
the US to take up.

But there was another threshold event this week that took the contest to
an entirely new and grander realm. This week, the dispute became
civilisational.

Japan, the only nation on earth that approaches the US in economic
weight, chose this moment to launch a proposal for a new emergency
rescue fund of $US100 billion ( $138 billion ) -- to be financed and used
exclusively by the countries of Asia.

The idea is a very shrewd one. First, it is designed to restore to Japan's
smaller neighbours some sense of control over their own destinies. It
could be used to defend national currencies against speculators.

Second, it is a statement of Asian solidarity, a gathering of friends in the
face of adversity.

Third, it is a political rebuke to the US -- which was not invited to join.

And fourth, it is potentially a mechanism for Japan to increase its
economic and political leverage over the rest of Asia.

Japan would be by far the biggest contributor to the fund and would
become, in effect, its controlling shareholder.

But how does this transform the dispute? Japan raised the idea at a
summit last weekend of rich industrial countries, the G7. Japan's is the
only Asian face around the G7 table. As soon as it put the idea forward,
it was attacked by the US and the European members of the gathering.

For Asianist activists such as Mahathir, this provides the perfect platform
and he used it to the full this week in a sustained attack on "the great
powers", a reference to the US and Europe.

"We like to think big," Mahathir told his audience in Hong Kong this
week. "But we are not going to be allowed to do this, because you don't
like us to have big ideas.

"It is not proper. It is impudent for us to try, or even to say that when we
have the money we will carry on with our big projects, you will make
sure we won't have the money by forcing the devaluation of the
currency. [Malaysia and Indonesia have been obliged to postpone plans
for several major projects as they have cut spending to deal with their
economic difficulties.]

"If the countries of Europe and of North America can be almost
uniformly prosperous, we don't see why we cannot be allowed to be a
little prosperous."

How does this rhetoric go down? The American who runs the World
Bank, the Australian-born James Wolfensohn, was sharing the stage
with Mahathir and later remarked that "you could just feel the rapt
attention" that the Malaysian leader commanded.

It is interesting to note that the pivotal Japanese official in the proposal
for an Asia-only rescue fund is, like Mahathir, an Asianist. The
vice-minister for international affairs at Japan's Ministry of Finance, Dr
Eisuke Sakakibara, better known as Mr Yen, has written extensively of
the rise of Asia and its collective civilisational destiny.

He has also posited that, in a post-communist world, the main
ideological challenge to American capitalism will be a rival Japanese
"people-centred" form of capitalism.

And even before the latest economic hostilities broke out, yet another
outspoken Asianist, the head of Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Kishore Mahbubani, issued this warning:

"Given the divisive debates of recent years, especially between the US
and Asian countries over democracy and human rights, finding common
elements that would appeal to the idealism and interests on both sides of
the Pacific may seem impossible . . .

"The Asia-Pacific faces the danger of a split down the middle of the
Pacific Ocean, creating an east-west divide."

The new arguments over speculation, markets and rescues add an
entirely new dimension to this divide. And it's about to get worse.

"As the US has the most open economy in the world, it will be especially
vulnerable to the change in East Asia's economic fortunes," says the US
economist David Hale of the Zurich Group.

"In the year through June, the US had purchased $US120 billion of
imports from South-East Asia while exporting $US88 billion there.

"During the next 12 months, US exports could drop by as much as 10 to
15 per cent while US imports could accelerate to the 20 to 25 per cent
range. Such trade swings could subtract 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points
from the US growth rate . . .

"The risk is that the US merchandise trade deficit could shoot into the
$US250 billion to $US300 billion range during 1998, from $US191
billion during 1996.

"Asia would take the blame, leading to escalating trade tensions between
the US and Asia.

"Such a sharp deterioration . . . is likely to provoke renewed calls for
protection" in the US Congress and might even emerge as a defining
issue in the next presidential election, Hale suggests.

The two sides of the Pacific are economically and strategically
interdependent and share deep mutual interests.

But there is a potent accumulation of nationalist and race-based emotional
pressures in the Asian region. It has exploded unexpectedly this week.

In his speech to the IMF seminar last weekend, Mahathir more or less
implied that a conspiracy existed on the part of the industrialised West to
forestall Asian economic development. "We know now that even as
Mexico's economic crash was manipulated and made to crash, the
economies of other developing countries too can be suddenly
manipulated and forced to bow to the great fund managers who have
now come to be the people to decide who should prosper and who
shouldn't."

Asia's reaction to an IMF plan to use its loan program to crack down on
corruption and bribery in recipient countries also highlights this distrust
of the industrialised West's intentions in the region.

Many Asian countries see this insistence that the IMF adopt new
"governance" rules as a guise for the US to attempt once again to impose
its political and social values on the rest of the world.

"In no circumstances should any country be allowed to impose its social
system and ideology on others," China's Premier, Li Peng, said earlier
this week. "And economic assistance must not be attached with any
political conditions."

As Singapore's Mahbubani suggests, if the region is to make a smooth
transition to the Pacific century it is clear that a new consensus on shared
interests and principles must be forged.

And his final word is "soon".

J.Q.P. -- What?

Testing October support 8020

Just thought I'd drop in on the gold bugs for a while!

JTF interesting how we can see different opinions coming out of AG's rave. I'm probably a little paranoid with what I picked out, but I see AG as being a little bit paranoid himself. Market's interpretation is a bit negative and as it's digested I think it'll get a little paranoid. With the overhang of suspence till 28th I see the dow failing in allotted timespan to march on.
He seems to be trying to introduce a little bit of fear into the market.
Knight to pawn 4 check!

I'll be joining you soon. But I'll crash of the coast of Galveston.

I think that AG's "Rave" has more to do with the SE Asia crisis and the "blame" placed on Soros... and AG just lined up with Soros ... and pleaded with the Asian Tigers to "get with it"... dangerous stuff if you ask me ... could affect gold??

Looks to me as though the PM complex and stocks is continuing to bob and weave step for step with the oil complex. Anyone else see it that way and what does it forecast?

Sabine Pass would be a nice place to land!

I think that AG's "Rave" has more to do with the SE Asia crisis and the "blame" placed on Soros... and AG just lined up with Soros ... and pleaded with the Asian Tigers to "get with it"... dangerous stuff if you ask me ... could affect gold??

ALL: If an e-gold standard is established....what is the likely range of the ( set ) gold price??? Guesses??

Varvara: Reading your post is worrisome to me. Looks to me like a real split is developing right down the middle of the Pacific and another right down the middle of the Persian Gulf. How can the US buy Oil if Asia doesnt buy its Bonds. I guess it really doesnt matter now that we have the Nemitz there - didnt we try this with China a while back?

Date: Tue Oct 14 1997 12:24
Varvara ( Aladdin@Javanet.com ) ID#428142:
**In his speech to the IMF seminar last weekend, Mahathir more or less
implied that a conspiracy existed on the part of the industrialised West to forestall Asian economic development. "We know now that even as Mexico's economic crash was manipulated and made to crash, the economies of other developing countries too can be suddenly manipulated and forced to bow to the great fund managers who have now come to be the people to decide who should prosper and who shouldn't." **

The speeches of Senator LaFollette and Congressman Lindbergh became rallying points of opposition to the Aldrich Plan in 1912. They also aroused popular feelings against the Money Trust. Congressman Lindbergh said, on December 15, 1911, " The government prosecutes other trusts, but supports the money trust. I have been waiting patiently for several years for an opportunity to expose the false money standard, and to show that the greatest of all favoritism is that extended by the government to the money trust."

Senator LaFollette publicly charged that a money trust of fifty men controlled the United States. George F. Baker, partner of J. P. Morgan, on being queried by reporters as to the truth of the charge, replied that it was absolutely in error. He said that he knew from personal knowledge that not more than eight men ran this country.

Senator LaFollette remarks in his memoirs that his speech against the Money Trust later cost him the Presidency of the United States, just as Woodrow Wilson's early support of the Aldrich Plan had brought him into consideration for that office.

** LaFollette polled 4,822,856 votes, 16.6 per cent of the total vote cast, the largest vote polled by an independent in all American history. Robert M. LaFollette Independent Farmer-Labor ( Progressive-Socialist ) candidacy for President in 1924. **

Senator Root raised the problem of inflation, claiming that under the Federal Reserve Act, note circulation would always expand indefinitely, causing great inflation. However, the later history of the Federal Reserve System showed that it not only caused inflation, but that the issue of notes could also be restricted, causing deflation, as occurred from 1929 to 1939.

One of the critics of the proposed "decentralized" system was a lawyer from Cleveland Ohio Alfred Crozier; Crozier was called to testify for the Senate Committee because he had written a provocative book in 1912, U.S. Money vs Corporation Currency. ( Crozier's book exposed the financiers plan to substitute "corporation currency" for the lawful money of the U.S. as guaranteed by Article I Sec. 8 Para 5, of the Constitution. ) He attacked the Aldrich-Vreeland Act of 1908 as a Wall Street instrument, and he pointed out that when our government had to issue money based on privately owned securities, we were no longer a free nation.

Crozier testified before the Senate Committee that " It should prohibit the granting or calling in of loans for the purpose of influencing interest rates in concert by the banks to influence public opinion or the action of any legislative body. Within recent months, William McAdoo, Secretary of the Treasury of the United States was reported in the open press as charging specifically that there was a conspiracy among certain of the large banking interests to put a contraction upon the currency and to raise interest rates for the sake of making the public force Congress into passing currency legislation desired by those interests. The so-called administration currency bill grants just what Wall Street and the big banks for twenty-five years have been striving for, that is, PRIVATE INSTEAD OF PUBLIC CONTROL OF CURRENCY....

It is interesting to note how many assassinations of Presidents of the United States follow their concern with the issuing of public currency; Lincoln with his Greenback, non-interest-bearing notes, and Garfield, making a pronouncement on currency problems just before he was assassinated.

Dow down 37--Is this the start of the "crash"? the sky is falling the sky is falling

Nick ( @Aussie ) : I guess I'm a little paranoid too! What does AG have up his sleeve? Whatever it is, it's likely to be highly significant. If he announces that the Fed ( world? ) is moving to a gold standard, that is likely to cause market turmoil, even if the entire concept is sound! My take on the this is that any annoucement will cause market turmoil - even one that looks sound. Further, would AG give a reason for a major announcement? Perhaps the derivatives trading is getting out of hand, and he as well as all the world central bank leaders are taking constructive measures to control this? The "average" investor is likely to see the negative aspect, rather than respond to AG's actions as resembling the White Night coming to the rescue ( when he/she didn't know he/she had to be rescued ) .
I'm more concerned about the longer term situation. For example, no matter what happens with the world currencies, the nations that call the shots will be the ones that have the gold in their banks. That raises several questions:
1 ) If we are moving to a world currency based on gold, where will the gold be kept? Will every central bank be required to keep a minimum?
2 ) How can the US maintain its gold reserves, given what we are doing with the dollar?
3 ) How can Germany meet the Maastrict criteria without either
i ) putting its economy into recession, or
ii ) selling gold?
4 ) Which Central Banks have been left high and dry with the LBMA? The
US? Has the US touched our gold reserves?

I doubt any of the above would come out Oct 28, because it is too close to the months when the market is statistically likely to crash. What bothers me is that he called the Oct 28 meeting -- he doesn't have to do that if he is just going to raise rates.
I maintain that in this chessgame - we are not even the pawns, because they can cross the board and become Queens! In the long run, however, we will have that gold rally, and maybe, just maybe we will find out how much gold is really in Fort Knox.

Varvara: From your post ......That was a threshold event. Immediately, the argument became one between nation states. The US Treasury Secretary, Robert Rubin, continued to fight on behalf of Soros and other speculators this week in
Hong Kong. Senior figures around the world -- including some very senior officials in Australia -- believe that this was a dangerous cause for the US to take up.

The American who runs the World Bank, the Australian-born James Wolfensohn,...

INTERESTING
Wasnt it Australia who drove Gold down a while back?
What is the Wolfensohn Bank doing these days? Does anyone know where it is located?

We are in the wrong commodity!
http://quote.yahoo.com/quotes?symbols=sle&detailed=1y

6PAK: ".....implied that a conspiracy existed on the part of the industrialised West to forestall Asian economic development. "We know now that even as Mexico's economic crash was manipulated and made to crash, the economies of other developing countries too can be suddenly manipulated and forced to bow to the great fund managers who have
now come to be the people to decide who should prosper and who shouldn't." ** ......"
".....Soros and Other Speculators..." Goldman Sach's Vice Chairman, Robert Ruben specialty is currency trsading and he was appointed as Secretary of the Treasury either the day before or the day after the Peso crashed. It is also my understanding that GS was the largest Investment Banker in Mexico at the time.

Varvara: I finally got access to your 12:24 post on SE Asia. The Asian perspective is essential toward understanding what is happening. I don't really know the truth on this matter, but the perception is clear. Perhaps that Oct 28 announcement from the LME ( and LBMA? ) about a new policy on derivatives, the Oct 28 announcement by A Greenspan, and the derivatives-induced currency collapses in SE Asia have a common thread. Perhaps we are going to have an announcment regarding problems in world-wide derivatives trading. Even if there is no announcement Oct 28 on this matter, it is likely to be one of AG's biggest items on his personal agenda.

Gold to 310
Dow to 8300
By 10/23/97
Do Ya Copy?
Cat is Back

JQ Public - Take a breath and THINK for once. George never *predicted* times/dates. He's given a running commentary. Who LOST money??? You? If you went metal, you haven't lost a thing. I doesn't evaporate, ya know.

Tresting - DOW 310 gold 8300 !

Testing.. Where do you put your money? What do you short, and what area do you go long?

It seems to me that AG's comments today, say with technology and its effect on communications that the paper currency experiment will continue in full force, even with the occasional disruption of "A Mexico" or an "Asean Situation". THINK OF THE CREDIBILTY THEY RECEIVE BY SOLVING THE PROBLEMS WITH YOUR TAX DOLLARS

With Mexico, they slamed the situation through; although US public opinion was against the huge bailout.
My conclusion is that the powers are well on their way to their goal of "A Well Controlled World", regardless of who is happy or unhappy about it.

This is why I respect Dr. Mahathir and other Asean leaders who have their own particular beliefs, we should have the balls to do the same.

If the One Worlder's plan crumbles ( Im for this ) we will probably see three or four trade blocks each using the new technologies to better themselves. After equal footing is felt; cross trade among the blocks may occur.

In todays comments Greenspan said:
"Today's central banks have the capability of creating and destroying unlimited supplies of money and credit"

It may be our money 'again' the next time? WHO MAKES OUT? YOU OR THEM. Think about it.

CNBC - Gold has made a bottom, has been press driven with news of foreign central bank sales. She looks for $350to375.

What's new this entire country is press driven!

Hey Georgio where's the crash you predicted for today @ 2:30 PM? I see gold soared again too---whatta rally! Allen: get a life+ buy stocks.

Nick ( @Canberra ) : I think I have the Nick interested in investing in Japan.
1 ) That 10trillion$ the Japanese have saved -- do you know where most of their savings is kept? Ie, market, cash, property - invested in Japan or Worldwide? Is it really 10 trillion or is this without the debt? Also, do you think that this time the Japanese are serious about freeing up their muscle-bound economic system so that there is a little more free enterprise?
I would guess that this current crisis might be the trigger for the Japanese to wake up to reality -- about 7 years late. However, I would not invest in Japan until I was convinced by their actions that they had actually were serious about the economic reforms!
2 ) What is your take on mainland China -- the other wild card in SE Asia? Is the debt just in ineffeicient old communist concerns, or is there serious bad debt in the new more efficient companies? Bad debt owed to foreign investors in the hundreds of billions would be the final deflationary trigger in the world economy if it were actually true.
Comments? What wild times we live in!

Larryn : CheeseCake!

Keep the faith "there is no new Paradigm" the old cycles still exist if they didn't I would be rich.
Talk to anyone who has an income related to the construction industry and they will tell you that cycles exist. 1929 1932 1972 1982 1887 1992 1997 What goes up comes down just ask John Denver. We are going to miss him.

The Lady on CNBC was Debra Diamond - anyone know anything about her? She sounds like she is our best friend! At least a voice of reason from the media!

Intel is expected to earn .91/share and the reality is: .88/share

HighRise: Machine tools up - are we at the end of one of those economic cycles looking down? The market downturn usually preceeds the peak in big ticket items such as machine tools. I expect that we will roar into 1999-2000 stock market-wise, and production-wise, but only after a down-turn. Has A Greenspan done so well that the downturn is to be minimal? Will our computer revolution, and constant improvements in efficiency bail us out? I'm waiting until spring-summer next year before investing in non-precious metals stocks. By then the dust should settle.
Appreciate your comments on John Denver - I like to play his pieces ( piano ) all the time --don't get me wrong - just for fun - I'm no match for StradMaster -- you couldn't get me to play in his presence! John Denver's life has been rocky at times ( no pun intended ) , but his music is inspiring. One of the greats!

Several recent posts to the KITCO discussion group have made reference to the term "e-gold", in a generic sense.

e-goldtm is a trademark registered to Gold & Silver Reserve, Inc. of Wilmington, DE [we also own e-silver, e-metal, DigiGold, cybermetal]. It refers to our proprietary, privately administered, transnational monetary/payments system; the first worldwide, fungible, finely divisible medium of exchange 100% backed by gold.

I invite your attention to our site: http://www.e-gold.com
e-goldtm is a privately administered alternative to the banking system, designed to supplant painfully inefficient payment mechanisms such as personal checks. An e-goldtm payment clears in about 10 seconds and it is impossible to generate an overdraft. Our fee structure is lower than credit cards and will be reduced further as we achieve economies of scale. We are not linked to any non-Y2K-compliant mainframes. There is about three times as much e-goldtm in electronic circulation than ( the much more heavily promoted ) ecash, in terms of total value. Our Examiner page https://www.e-gold.com/acct/examiner.htm sets a standard for transparency which no bank-related monetary system would ever dare emulate.

I appreciate the insightful and lively commentary of this group. But, please, we have put a great deal of effort and expense into the creation and deployment of the e-goldtm system and can not permit it to become generic terminology.

Sincere regards
Douglas Jackson

MIZ - Please stay around. We'd like to hear the news from inside Japan. Jin is in Indonesia ( ? Malaysia, I forgot ) and offers a nice perspective from there. Unfortunately recent news was about bank runs. Can you give us an outline of the 'news' in the past few weeks? Thanks.

Allen ( USA ) : Thanks for spotting MIZ' post. We need more diverse input from outside our little circles. Jin and MIZ may be able to help us and help each other.

Allen: Your fair value targets of Dow 5500 and gold $460 are eminently reasonable. Good chance of reaching them by late 1998.

Low volume today in gold stocks suggests this correction has further to run.

Stock rally today was not impresive considering sharp drop in bond yields. But the primary direction still is up. This will continue as long as the number of new lows remains minuscule. October looks like a good month for paper, but be ready for a November surprise.

Arden: Debbie Diamond writes a commodities column for THE STRATEGIC INVESTOR.

George Cole: I think I can speak for the majority when I say your running commentary is always appreciated. What is important to convey is the thought process, and you do that. Your critics, as far as I can tell deal in specific dates and numbers, but not the thought process involved. My point is that specific dates and numbers are worthwhile posting, but the thought process makes them meaningful for those who want to learn. Those who blindly take the advice of others without thinking for themselves are much more likely to fail then those who reason. I value your, the Oldman's and RJ's comments highly. I am not belittling other Kitcoites when I say this -- haven't been reading the posts very long.

Highrise: Should you be interested, there is a site on the net, it is a religious group, that has put together a relatively good reference, to the Federal Reserve Act, and back ground information. The screw is turning. Unfortunately, very few USofA citizens, are concerned about currency, national debt, and world financial problems. Just another problem living in the 1990s, interesting times. I suggest, that it is unlikely, that the USofA citizen will overcome the vested financial interests, that have impacted the USofA for the past 83 years, these financial interests are in total and complete control. No religious group, or other pressure group, will be able to get the working men and women ( citizens ) to understand the financial sickness, that has destroyed the dream, of a free and democratic country. Sad but true.

All those that have tried before, were smashed, using the "RED" scare, or "Bolshevism" or "Communism" or "Socialism" etc. etc. it is a well know fact, if you question **Monopoly** you are one of the above. It has been a very positive tool in the war chest of the "Money Trusts", very effective, and one must be impressed with the effective use of the news media, to gain control over the lives of the citizen. Money talks eh!

0000000000000000000000000000000
The Federal Reserve:

The Engine of Power

The Bible instructs us not to be ignorant of Satan's devices and it predicts that, as the Second Coming of Christ draws near, the world will be drawn into a One World Government, ultimately to be taken over by a Coming World Leader1. The forces setting the stage for this final climactic chapter may have proceeded farther than most people realize.

Few Americans know of the betrayal that was plotted on Jekyll Island, Georgia, which was destined to defraud Americans of their wealth and opportunity, and would eventually lead to the subjugation of our great democratic experiment to a centralized global dictatorship.

The Kennedy Plan

President John F. Kennedy planned to exterminate the Federal Reserve System and ultimately eliminate the national debt, as had Andrew Jackson and Abraham Lincoln before him when they did the same to the two Rothschild-organized central banks. In 1963, by presidential order of John F. Kennedy ( EO 11 and EO 110 ) , the United States Treasury began printing over $4 billion worth of "United States Notes" to replace Federal Reserve Notes. When a sufficient supply of these notes entered circulation, the Federal Reserve Notes--and the System--could be declared obsolete. This would end the control of the international bankers over the U.S. government and the American people.

Some of these bills can still be found. They can be recognized by their distinctive red seal on the front of the bill instead of the green seal of Federal Reserve Notes. Above the portrait appears the words "United States Note." Printed were $2 and $5 notes,18 series 1963, and C. Douglas Dillon's signature appears as Secretary of Treasury. The reverse side of these bills is identical to the Federal Reserve Notes.

After putting this plan into effect, John F. Kennedy was professionally assassinated in Dealey Plaza. The subsequent coverup was so skillful that even to this day few Americans realize the coup d'etat that was engineered to save the System. ( Otto von Habsburg's remarks still echo in my ears: "The concentration of power in America is frightening." )

http://www.khouse.org/fedreser.html

Gold Fields and Gencor of South Africa merge to become world's largest. Any thoughts on other possible mergers or aquisitions.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.70

XAU/Spot Ratio = .322

NOW you say October will be good for stocks. Can you give us a prediction for September 1997? What's the November surprise---you'll make a LUCKY guess?

This week's Dick Davis Digest http://www.dickdavis.com/ddarchives/ddd3692.html ( you will need the password to access ) is very bullish on gold and the XAU in its feature article, quoting several newsletter analysts who feel the bottom is in or near. Three gold funds ( Invesco, Benham, and FSAGX ) are recommended in the mutual funds section.

6PK: Thanks for your post.

Confused - Your personal attacks are not appreciated here. This is a place for civil discourse. Go peddle your poison somewhere else, and take all your other aliases with you!

Varvara - Re: your 12:24 post. Thanks for that post. I suppose that those of us who are not part of the " asian region" really have little grasp on a gut level of the grinding ordeal of Japan ( 1990 - 1997 ) or of the recent ( Summer - present 1997 ) catastrophy of the small tigers. A month or so ago when Dr M spoke out about race those here remarked about the horror of injecting a racial element into all of this. As we look at Africa in general, as some of its nations have devolved into racial wars, we were in straights about hearing it from asia. After a while we moved on to other things. But here again is a strong reminder of this time-bomb. I suppose that in a crisis, when racial hatrid becomes a trumpet, that many other thoughtful processes are cast aside. One can do the unthinkable fairly easily when one is animated by fear, hatrid and wrath. I'm minded of the problem of saving a person who is about to drownd ( sp? ) - they are so overcome with survival instinct that they will grab their rescuer by the kneck and doom them both. So we may see irrational economic actions coming from asia which end up ruining all of us regardless of our interests or intentions.

Please keep us "posted". And Thank You!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/14/z0009_60.html

6pak, Mike Sheller,all: 6 pak - Noticed your post to HighRise. Power has been concentrated in individuals, and abused, probably since the beginning of human History. My take of all this is that when power is used to control others, that is undesireable for whatever reason, and less so as the general education level increases. ( Re: The Celestine Prophesies ) Fortunately there are cycles in Human history where this power shifts, or that some of that effort to control ends up benefiting mankind anyway. For example, the Rothschilds I suspect benefit more from peace than from war. Unfortunately greed and power corrupt.
I was wondering if you had noticed that Russia, and now China are moving to repress non-state supported religion ( Russia ) , or unorthodox holistic medicine ( China ) . Same process in both countries. I am not a religious person in the normal sense, but I have read much of the religious predictions of the future, including the Fatima revelations ( I, II and yes hints at III ) and have noted a common thread. The ultimate threat to World Peace may come from Russia or China, not just the Islamic world, and the non-communist world should do its best to ensure religious freedom in these countries, or we may regret the consequences. Let us hope that "The Awakening" of the internet spreads to Russia and China! Think of all those computers in China, and those geostationary satellites? Here's to the future of humankind!

DJ:Drink this dork!

To Douglas Jackson ( 16:27 ) .. Checked your site and e-gold sounds interesting.. One question?? If one were to put in, say $2000 US tonight,
how much gold ( or silver ) in oz. would be in the account? thks

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/z0009_79.html

DJ: If you don't respond to nonproductive comments - they may ( I hope ) stop.

All - It seems to me that this first move by gold has corresponded to the pioneers moving into new territory ( for most of them ) . They are clearing a path which will, in time, become a road, then a highway for others. They are holding ground and there will be vacillation as these early stake holders secure their own confidence. We are beginning to hear a few more talk up gold. This will be the second wave to come in driving the price up to another platform. Finally a third wave of those who feel more secure moving in masses and settling in urbanized security will follow them. Once we have a small settlement village there will be a steady inflow as more see that opportunity indeed exists but without the need to be sitting out in the pucker brush.

I feel ( right now ) that people are just now beginning to get their routines worked out in this new territory. When they are comfortable they will tutor others. This will be the groundswell. Aren't you glad you are here first ( almost ) ?

Surely, someone in this discussion group will be able to settle an argument related to the CPI. Specifically, the BLS website states that the CPI includes the following:

from http://stats.bls.gov/cpiadd.htm#6_1

"Major groups and examples of categories...are as follows:
Food and beverages ( cookies, cereals, cheese, coffee, chicken, beer and ale, restaurant meals ) ;
Housing ( residential rent, homeowners' costs, fuel oil, soaps and detergents, televisions, local telephone service ) ;
Apparel and its upkeep ( men's shirts, women's dresses, jewelry ) ;
Transportation ( airline fares, new and used cars, gasoline, car insurance ) ;
Medical care ( prescription drugs, eye care, physicians' services, hospital rooms ) ;
Entertainment ( newspapers, toys, musical instruments, admissions ) ; and
Other goods and services ( haircuts, college tuition, bank fees ) ."

A colleague has told me that this isn't accurate; he said that energy costs, for example, really aren't included, yet the BLS list specifies things like gasoline and fuel oil.

Should the BLS list really be referred to as the BS list, or what? Does anyone know what's really included or excluded? Any information appreciated...

Wow,I can almost see the forest through the trees. Gold up TEN cents.

Take a day off to work and look what happens to metals. Hey, Debbie Diamond I don't know, but Strategic Investors is more like Strategic Divestors. They touted Zappa, which fell three fourths, AZCO which was supposed to be an "easy double" which fell in half before once again it was touted as a possible double. Oh, and don't forget CLEA which fell from $1 to 20 cents and that doesn't even factor in a 4 for 1 reverse split at a nickle. If our hopes are set in that direction for guidance all is lost.

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971014/business/stories/greenspan_6.html

You are both right. The CPI includes all those things listed at the BLS site. However, two indeces are measured and published. One is the CPI, the full kit and kabootle, and the other is called the Core Rate, which excludes food stuffs and energy components. The argument is the food and energy are very volatile components and tend to distort the otherwise stable index.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/14/z0000_z00_14.html

First time here. Excellent reading and thoughts. A comment if I may on the post from aladdin on the situation brewing in Asia.

In my humble opinion.

The west has no comprehension of the east. None whatsoever. Asia on the whole is completely out of the mobius loop of western thought. The financial battles waged so far will seem to be insignificant skirmishes as the tigers emerge from the jungle and sit at the feet of the Chinese Dragon which shall certainly be the next super power. India will sit by herself and will lean towards the tigers and the Dragon.

Gold is being hoarded by all of the above nations and individuals living therein. The west has currency which will be used as wall paper in the coming years. Japan will become more intimate with the rest of Asia, recent movements prove this, and further actions will confim this evidence and quell any further specualtion on the subject. Wait until the great Treasury sell off for absolute confirmation of Japans clear ties and stance with all of Asia.

While the western play money can still buy the metals I suggest to everyone reading this that they accumulate as much of the metals as possible. Physical holdings, metal stock shares and a fabulous new medium, e-gold. You can find an e-gold banner on the GOLD EAGLE web site.

For what its worth, that is where my money is in case you want to know. As far as stocks, I recommend you look for yourselves at the following:

Silver Standard Resources, Avino Mines, First Silver Reserve - silver will go through the roof in due time.

Franco Nevada, Newmont, and Stillwater Mines -

And so, enjoy the day, peace to you all.

Well, my soap box is crumbling.

Allen ( USA ) : My dad believed for years that currency inflation was bad, and that the consequences would eventually come home to roost. When I was young, I could not see why he said those things. Now I believe otherwise. What is happening is like the evolution of a new Physical model -- it may take a generation to take hold - because the non-believers or the deluded must fade away. Your post indicates to me that some are awakening to the reality -- Kondratiev's work cannot be ignored. I expect ( unfortunately ) to live long enough to see the full shift of the Kondratiev wave from "paper" to "hard" assets. Although the peak will probably not be until 2010, the whisperings, and the thoughts of moving to the exits are beginning.
We must, however, not be corrupted by our love of gold, and buy prematurely, only to loose our wealth in the process. Gold is a means of retaining wealth for future human economic recovery -- we must refrain from the temptation to hold it just for the sake of holding it!

ELF: Thanks for the Dick Davis Digest info! One of the best investment publications in my opinion.

The more gold mine mergers the better. We gold investors would be much better off if the number of gold mining companies shrank by 75%. Look at the banking industry. Far too many weak gold miners around who must hedge and produce to the max or risk going bankrupt. We need strong gold miners that can slash output 50% for an extended period if need be.

Modest drop in gold exploration outlays in store.




Tuesday October 14 3:49 PM EDT

U.S. gold miners exploration budgets down in 1997

NEW YORK, Oct 14 ( Reuters ) - Worldwide exploration expenditure of U.S. gold producers is forecast to fall by 12 percent in
1997 to $551 million, due to a declining gold price in the past year, the Gold Institute said.

But worldwide expensed and capitalized exploration expenditure by U.S. gold miners has doubled in the past five years from
$301 million in 1992 to $629 million in 1996, the Washington DC-based trade association said.

``While there is expected to be some decrease in exploration expenditures by U.S. gold producers in 1997, most firms are
resolute in the search for new deposits,'' Gold Institute president John Lutley said.

``The long term viability of U.S. gold producers depends on the discovery of new gold deposits.''

The annual survey conducted by the Gold Institute monitors exploration spending of 19 of the largest U.S. gold miners on a
country-specific basis. The Gold Institute is a Washington DC-based trade association.

Since 1980 about $2.9 billion has been spent on exploration in the U.S. itself by gold producers and in total about $16 billion
has been invested on exploration and mine development.

But recent delays in permitting have accelerated the flight of exploration capital from the U.S. and led to record exploration
expenditures in other countries.

In 1992, 56 percent of exploration dollars were spent in the U.S., a proportion which fell to 26 percent in 1996, but the
forecast for 1997 shows a cutback in exploration internationally, while U.S. expenditures are seen edging up 29 pct of the
total.

In dollar terms, exploration spending in the U.S. has been little changed from year to year since 1992, while spending in Latin
America, Australia and the South Pacific has risen as U.S. producers have looked for gold in those regions.

Exploration dollars in Latin America grew nearly six times between 1992 and 1996 and last year attracted about 12 percent
more spending than did the U.S. itself.

``The increasing internationalization of the U.S. gold mining industry reflects the need to hedge its political risks by investing
in exploration activities in several areas worldwide, and also reflects the need to find mineable ore bodies with low production
costs wherever they may be,'' Lutley said.

By contrast total worldwide mineral exploration by all the world's miners was estimated at $3.5 billion in 1996, a 30 pct
increase over 1995.

``It would appear that the 19 U.S. gold producers surveyed in this report, contributed 18 percent in gold exploration to the total
global search for minerals in 1996,'' the Gold Institute's report said.

Canadian producers continue to lead the world in mineral exploration.

In 1996 an estimated $958 million was spent on exploration outside Canada by 94 large Canadian-based companies.

The U.S currently ranks as the second largest gold producer in the world, behind South Africa and ahead of Australia, Canada,
China and Russia.

In 1996 production of gold in U.S. mines totalled nearly 11 million ounces, an eleven fold increase since 1980.

More than 110,000 jobs were created as a result of the expansion in U.S. gold mining, the Institute said.

More news for related categories and industries: mining, stock capsules.

tolerantl and all: I agree that the next world power is almost certainly China. I hope that their rise to power will be wise and peaceful. toleranti- My wife is Chinese, and I am impressed by the strength of their culture, which has survived thousand of years, and numerous governments of various kinds. They have been though at least 3 periods of runaway inflation over the last 2 or 3 thousand years. They know much better than us ( Americans, in particular ) the value of gold. However, I am more worried about those brought up in the Communust Chinese system, whom I find generally abrasive and insensitive -- at least the ones that I have met in the US. I try to make sure that all of them are comfortable in their visits to the US. I sincerely hope that the Chinese spirit has not been too badly damaged over the last 40 or so years by the ( old ) Communist system.

Where has Another been?

Hello all from the great beyond. We just wanted to mention that we've done our part to give "Crash" and "Drop" new meaning....

October 14, 1997
U.S. diplomats often secretly sympathized with Canada

WASHINGTON ( CP ) - The relationship between Canada and the United States has often been characterized as one of a mouse sleeping next to an elephant. The elephant was often sheepish about rolling onto the mouse.

"The lack of interest in Canada is also coupled with a feeling of arrogance and 'We'll tell you how to run your country' attitude that one sees in Washington," Thurber said. "It's mind-boggling to look at some of the cables and the instruction to our ambassador to go into the Canadian government and tell them 'We want them to do this' and 'You will do that.'" While Thurber said he took secret pleasure in seeing the Canadian government pushing back, too frequently, Canada knuckled under to the United States.

"They did do our bidding all too often, griping about it, grumbling, and
wishing they didn't have to."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Undiplomatic-Diplomats-Negotiators.html

Still hiding Puetz? I can't blame ya! Come on silver, back up you dog. Puetz, I need a good investment opportunity. Please exercise your contrary indicator abilities. Could you please predict a huge rise in the DOW for next week, thus precipitating an immediate crash which will enable me to buy back in?? Thanks. LGB

JTF: your comments do not fall on deaf ears. You are correct in being worried about the abrasive and insensitive individuals brought up in the Communist Chinese system, but I assure you that somewhere in Asia there are two people discussing the crass and abrasive people brought up in an America they think owes them everything.

I think Billy Joel summed it up in the song "Big Shot."

Your wife is Chinese and you respect the strength of their culture, ergo you respect your wife. Good for both of you. May you both live forever and the last voice you hear be that of many children whose lives were enriched by knowing the both of you and your thoughts.

To address your comment regarding the spirit of the Chinese people, I think if you reflect for a moment, the human spirit is intensely resilient, don't you agree. They will be fine. Life is effort and they have plenty more to give.

Namaste'

Lets face it, silver and gold are ugly dogs that dont hunt. There I said it now I feel better. Where's Steve Peutz?

I'm no expert in much of anything, but I do know that not many people want to buy gold/silver these days. Seems like a good time to buy with the prices depressed. Can anyone out there recommend some specific gold/silver coins or junior mining stocks to look into?

The same will happen in the US.
Would-be Telstra shareholders were warned in the Public Offer Document, released two weeks ago, that there was ***no assurance*** that the three-year, $500 million program would be successful, or that the date change from 1999 to 2000 would not materially affect Telstra's operations and financial results. "We are looking at all options, but the real issue is that no amount of money will compensate for not being in business," she said.
WOW! They are admitting that this is a real possibility!!! The largest telecom in Australia.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971014/inform/inform2.html

EB - Made a couple of deposits in your vault.

JTF - I aggree with you about not becoming so enthralled with any particularinvestment as to be blind to other options and opportunities. It seems to me that gold/silver were, before our times, the bank. You moved into and out of them, such as into grain futures ( bought grain when it was low and stored it, in cribs ) . Then sold those commodities in return for 'deposits' or silver, which were accumulated until gold was obtainable. That's the old way. Still done in many parts of the third world. That's how I see the best use of metals ( physical ) now.

Now the paper system is making gold/silver a bargain basement entry point. Great for us! I would consider 'withdrawl' at some point in the future to buy a tangible asset which has not yet been hit by inflationyet. That's the opportunity I see other than preservation. There will be deflation in some tangibles as the respective markets are flush with goods ( repossessed cars, homes, land, etc ) . At some point those items will respond to the general inflationary environment. The gap between the deflation and the inflation is the opportunity, provided gold/silver is not deflated.

The metaphr I posted earlier was intended to be descriptive of the process of making pathways. People in general are not in the habit of buying gold/silver. They will learn.Its a process. The fellow I have bought from moves about 1000 oz per week in a major eastern metro area. He's a big wholesaler to the smaller shops. He is only moving 1000 oz per week. That's just pitiful don't you think? I keep in touch with him and ask about his volumn ( went up 15% in past week and 1/2 ) . That's my indicator as to what joe's like me are thinking. The folks who have increased his flow are just the beginning to my thinking.

http://www.prnewswire.com:80/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-14-97/335999&EDATE=

http://www.amcity.com:80/pittsburgh/stories/101397/focus3.html

http://www.prnewswire.com:80/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-13-97/335722&EDATE=

October 14, 1997

US Congress panel dispels rumor on Greenspan testimony

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The Joint Economic Committee ( JEC ) of the U.S. Congress on Tuesday dispelled market rumors that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan had asked to address the committee later this month.
The committee asked Greenspan to testify several weeks ago, said a JEC spokesperson. "It's been in the works for a while," the spokesperson said. Greenspan is scheduled to address the JEC on the economic and monetary policy outlook on Oct. 28 at 10 a.m. EDT . He last testified before the committee in March.

"We're really interested in monetary policy. We're very interested in what's happening at the Federal Reserve," the spokesperson said.
The spokesperson added that the JEC intended to examine monetary policy in the light of "past, present and future" economic conditions as well as transparency at the Fed. One senior Treasury market trader said some market players speculated that Greenspan had requested to testify ahead of the Nov. 12 meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. "Some people were saying that it is Greenspan himself who had requested to speak before the JEC," the trader said.

Greenspan, who adressed two forums on Tuesday, has kept financial markets watchful for hints of an upcoming U.S. interest rate hike since he last week cautioned against complacency about inflation.

HighRise: Is everything ( everyone ) press driven or is the press man driven? When the boogie man comes to call where will all the 'cattle' run? Boo, October 31st-January 1st.
LGB: I will not ride you when it happens. Your friend Meph.

elbee -- Don't forget about 'seasonal' adjustments. As an example, items are swapped in to and out of the index based on seasonal demand. Gasoline is removed in the Summer season and replaced with diesel oil. In the Winter season, the opposite takes place. Gasoline demand is high in the Summer. Diesel fuel demand is high in the Winter.

This is why one item ( like diesel oil, otherwise know as #2 fuel oil, as in home heating oil ) can go up in the Winter, and not substantially affect the price index.

JTF: You are one of my favorites. But please, por favor, don't mention my name in the same post with "The Celestine Prophecy." That tripe is McMetaphysics - fast food for the "soul." Shanghai ladies are quite an adornment to any family, especially us westerners. My daughter in law is a jewel. The air at Kitco tonite reeks of contention. I have fish to fry, as I am now a Director in a public gold mining company. Thus, it is clear that the bottom is in. It cannot get any worse for the gold mining industry now that Sheller is a mining "executive." From now on I must be circumspect, lest I be accused of relating "inside" information ( :- ) ) .

It would appear that the copper rhino was stamping his hoof today.

Savage, Cherokee, LGB, and other: Here it is. The next potential time for the starting date of a stock market crash is tomorrow, October 15th. The moon is full then, and it's 6 weeks after a solar eclipse.

The topping-pattern would then extend for 10 weeks, instead of the normal 6 weeks. There was one crash that did have a 10-week -- the South Sea Bubble collapse in the year 1720.

Option buying in calls is unbelievably high. Bearish sentiment, as measured by the weekly AAII poll, is the lowest in 5 years. A break below DJIA 7500 will confirm the crash. In the past 10 weeks, leverage has risen sharply, with stocks barely moving higher. One hum-dinger a a margin-call will hit the marketplace once stocks turn lower.

When the South Sea Bubble collapsed, South Sea shares lost 80% of their value in less than 1 month. An equivalent collapse would put the DJIA down to 1000. Stay alert. More later.

Puetz is in the cell next to me-his offense= outrageous financial advice that led to the ruin of many innocent sheep ( small-minded people ) baa baa

After reading the full text of AG's speech here are my ruminations and codgitations:

His points are,
1 ) Technology has created a vast, world embracing financial system which is fast moving and powerful.
2 ) It isn't necessarily smart or correct.
3 ) There isn't enough disclosure ( read this Japan will be the next sink hole ) to preclude convulsive flows of capital out of what were once deemed riskable countries.
4 ) It is conterproductive to resist this technology and its effects.
5 ) The only way a country can maitain stability is to be candid and timely in its economic information.
6 ) There will be coming convulsions by this systems nature, which will severly touch entire nations, regions and in fact the entire economic world system.
7 ) Gold in its day was a great way for commerce to be stablised in an information poor environment.
8 ) Gold may have its day again in stabilizing the world fincacial system in the age of hyper information and communication.
9 ) Its up to central bankers to engineer this gold under girding to he current electronic system in order to tether the tiger.

Guess what he will tell us 28th October. My guess is a significant world wide coordinated central bank effort to stabilize currencies, markets and information. A new role for gold and a centralized world bank. ( expansion of current bank of settlements )

STEVE: Greenspan's speech ( "speach" if you're aurator ) comes 3 days before a new Moon. That new Moon is 8 degrees Scorpio, moving into a 120 degreeTrine with the Chairman's Venus/Jupiter conjunction at 11-13 Aquarius. Do you see any fallout there from his speech ( speach ) ???

Globex SP500 down 455
NDX down 1200
INTC after hrs trade $86.75
Up/down again tommorow

There you go again. Guess I'll have to sell all my stocks tonight as the full moon is here again.

6pak: Thanks again for the post. The article, along with what I already know to be fact, ties everything together for me. And that is what has been bothering me, not having all of the pieces to the puzzle. One must read the bibliography as they read the article to get the full impact of what has happened and what is happening. As one reads this one should try to remember ones history. Unfortunately no one knows their history any more. When society forgets its past it will repeat the mistakes of the past. If Gold bugs want the answers as to what is happening to GOLD they should study this article along with the US history that reinforces it. Asia has had a real problem with these people for a long time and I am not so sure they are going to put up with them no matter how much they destroy their currency and economies - the tiger is out of the cage.
http://www.khouse.org/fedreser.html

Puetz: I agree with you that this bubble is going end very very badly. But I still do not see how a crash can develop until the market's internals start to deteriorate. Until new lows increase from the current 12-14 a day to 50-100 a day, the odds against a sudden crash are enormous. But once the internals start to weaken, this bull could unravel very quickly indeed.

STEVE: Sorry, I meant 90 degree SQUARE with the Chairman's 11-13 degree Venus Jupiter conjunction in Aquarius. How sloppy of me. Do you see that square from the Moon as bringing heavy fallout from the public on Greenspan for his coming remarks?

Tomorrow is a FULL MOON- sell everthing,including your wife and kids! Sell sell sell

STEVE: Sorry, I meant 90 degree SQUARE with the Chairman's 11-13 degree Venus Jupiter conjunction in Aquarius. How sloppy of me. Do you see that square from the Moon as bringing heavy fallout from the public on Greenspan for his coming remarks?

( Alan Greenspan on gold today )
An environment conducive to stable product prices and to maintaining sustainable economic growth has become a prime responsibility of governments and, of course, central banks. It was not always thus. In the last comparable period of open international trade a century ago the gold standard prevailed. The roles of central banks, where they existed ( remember the United States did not have one ) , were then quite different from today. International stabilization was implemented by more or less automatic gold flows from those financial markets where conditions were lax, to those where liquidity was in short supply. To some, myself included, the system appears to have worked rather well. To others, the gold standard was perceived as too rigid or unstable, and in any event the inability to finance discretionary policy, both monetary and fiscal, led first to a further compromise of the gold standard system after World War I, and by the 1930s it had been essentially abandoned.

The fiat money systems that emerged have given considerable power and
responsibility to central banks to manage the sovereign credit of nations. Under a gold standard, money creation was at the limit tied to
changes in gold reserves. The discretionary range of monetary policy was
relatively narrow. Today's central banks have the capability of creating
or destroying unlimited supplies of money and credit.

Clearly, how well we take our responsibilities in this modern world has
profound implications for participants in financial markets. We provide
the backdrop against which individual market participants make their
decisions. As a consequence, it is incumbent upon us to endeavor to
produce the same noninflationary environment as existed a century ago, if
we seek maximum sustainable growth. In this regard, doubtless, the most
important development that has occurred in recent years has been the
shift from an environment of inflationary expectations built into both
business planning and financial contracts toward an environment of lower
inflation.

( He is making a strong case for gold here. )

INTEL INCOME NOT UP TO EXPECTATIONS

Comment ( 5 ) It is an axiom in the markets that all new bull markets begin with a short-covering rout of the bears---and this emerging bull market in gold appears to be no different. The next level of resistance is $340/oz. which was touched again last week in the December futures contract but not in the cash price. We also reported last week that a major mining company had moved to cover its short positions. ( The last time Barrick -- the largest short seller -- moved to square its positions, the market rocketed up nearly $100. )

In all seriousness - The transiting Moon will be opposing Greenspan's Natal Mercury when he gives his speech on the 28th. This may indicate public displeasure. Also, transiting Mars, in AG's Solar 10th House, will be moving into square with his Uranus. Maybe more about "technology." Could be displeasure from the "Big Guy" in the White House as well. Maybe it's time for the Fed Chief to "move on" some may think. WithVenus conjuncting Mars on that day, there may be a Faux pas here either annoying to the fair sex ( hard to imagine ) , or, more appropriately, impacting gold. The real pressure comes early to mid November when Jupiter returns right on top of Greenspan's natal Jupiter. He may escape by the skin of his teeth. But a new Jupiter cycle of 12 years will be beginning for him.

S&P 500 down 4.74 on Globex. Anyone know why. http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

Ron in Texas:

Canyon Resources Corp, Golden, Colorado is a junior mining company undiscovered by many. Management justs keeps plugging away at exploration, discovery, mine development, and production. Company founded
in 1976 by Robt. DeVoto PHD, Professor Emeritus, Colorado School of Mines. Under graduate degree from Dartmouth. Dr. DeVoto is CEO and Chairman. All board members are high quality; many connected to large mining companies. Insiders own 14% of common. Briggs mine Inyo County CA is now producing 75000 oz/yr from the Panament Range. Briggs opened Oct. 1996. They will report positive earnings in 3rd 1/4. 1 cent per share last quarter. 800000 oz p&p reserves at Briggs. Hedge program at $400+ next 2 yrs. Management just agreed [9/27] to purchase remaining 72.25% share of McDonald Property at Lincoln, Montana from their partner Phelps Dodge. Phelps would rather mine copper in Chile. McDonald property contains 7 mil oz p&p. Debt/Cap at about 35%. Book value about $1.65. 37 mil shares outstanding. Also, 20 percent of annual revenue derived from production of industrial minerals in Navada [diatomite] and New Mexico [pumice and volcanic glass]. Nice, well balanced company. Daily trading volume has been increasing since announcement of McDonald purchase, which increased their P&P reserves about 3 fold. Closed today 2 3/8. Buy at 2 1/4 or below. Good Luck - Good Hunting!

nick--
each pt=$10

ie... .8 = $8 ---------- 2.5 = $250 ------- 15.0 = $1500

a broker fee of $50, and option premium around $30, feb 400 strike.
who can't afford to buy 2 of these puppies per month? before long
you're running along with 8 "tickets" to what will be the greatest
show on earth! what is $1600 per year relative to what will be gained
when she breaks for the gate. each option could easily return 100k or
more,----or you could lose a whopping $1600!! timing, timing, timing.
look at the technical and fundummymentals, they are showing trend
change NOW.

charts reflect fundamentals, fundamentals reflect reality. reality
has not existed in the gold markets for aeons upon aeons. when "the
other" necessary ingredient is added, the mixture will be complete.
this "other ingredient" is mass-psychology. the psychological shift
has to occur that imparts the utter worth-less-ness of paper vs.
"stuff." this is happening before our very eyes. for a plethura
of reasons, some recent, some long since past, the time is now
for options in gold. calls to be exact. 370 to 400 strike, 4 to
6 months out.

ted you rogue, been whaling lately? puff, puff------

10-15-97 d-day for italy and the man with THE line up-stairs---------
( other than notre dame )

cherokee!; ) trader-of-the-green-for-the-gold-----expcecting-the-worst--hoping-for-the-best

correction .8 = $80

DONALD, all: Do Greenspan's comments mean that it is alright to engage in market manipulation by the state power to "insure" non-inflationary stability? Do the means justify the ends? Is the point really that "we have committed murder, now let us neatly burn the body"? Are we to accept the illogical and criminal, and proceed from there? Why don't Central bankers just give it up and go home, leaving the world to a gold standard and real money? I think that Mr G has fallen prey to the justification of an aberration in defense of an illusion. What would a 1966 Greenspan, or Ayn Rand, say about this?

George Cole ( Crash? ) ID#42953:
* ...do not see how a crash can develop until the market's internals
* start to deteriorate. Until new lows increase from the current 12-14
* a day to 50-100 a day, the odds against a sudden crash are enormous.

George, I was interested in the emphasis you put on new lows. Surely, after such a bull, the proportion of stocks with new all-time lows will be small indeed and, for those that are making such lows, the reasons will be unrelated to the market as a whole - and therefore of small predictive relevance thereto. Tell me what I'm missing! Also, are there any other indicators that you would class under "internals"?
Anyway, all the best for now. Peter ( bl ) .

The trigger to the US paper Bull 'was' the Jap real estate and stk mrkts. I thought we would see a major correction last Apr/May. My now defunct scenario predicted that a reaction to a serious correction in Japan would result in a counterbalance to provide liquidity in the Jap mkt. I thought this liquidity would come from US paper. Well that was then.

I bring this up to relate the process of 'correction' with reaction. Each of us has an emotional response to an unexpected event. When someone unexpectedly puts a gun in your ribs and asks for your money your heart rate will probably rise. The reaction is normal.

Similarily, a reaction to a major stock correction would be retail dumping of stocks. The Japanese mkt did not suddenly correct. Retail investors in Jap mkts did not dump Jap stks even though the mrkt is in the pits.

The cognitive counterbalance, in this case, permitted an adjustment to events in the absence of a sudden event ( correction ) - nobody dumped Jap stks. Without an emotive counterbalance to a sudden event we can't get a spiral. Retail investor psychology rules the Bull and Bear. Without the warm glow of retail investment a market is subject to the command of traders. Traders can't make money in the US stk mrkt as they play both sides of a short game and the stk paper Bull doesn't allow for much room on the bottom side given the warm glow of retail money streaming into stks even at this late stage.

With the Japs now checked by the SE Asian currency problems the entire US paper correction waits for an alternate event to prick the bubble and trigger a spiralling retail mania.

In the absence of retail interest in gold the traders control the market. Gold bottomed but it hasn't ( as yet ) established a predictable rate of recovery due to the lack of retail investment interest.

Cheers.

Technology scare - spelled Intel

HighRise Re: 20:02 -- Neither is mine! :- ) )

So the intriguing question is, what is an ounce of gold really 'worth'? If, by proxy, AG is angling towards some kind of 'one world' gold standard based currency, the price of gold will be the least of our troubles.

Another: Have you posted your 2nd instalment on US paper as yet ?

Cheers

George Cole: This market may not show all the traditional signs of a top but here are some things to consider. There are 300,000 new participants per week ( per Sindlinger ) . There is $21 billion of new money per month ( per AMG Data ) . It has been 70 days since the last Dow top with all those things going for it. Market leaders like Compaq and Dell have not been able to make new highs in weeks. Foreign participation is dropping in bonds ( since August ) Foreign money is being used at home to repair local problems. Stocks are strong in the morning, weak in the afternoon, a reversal of several years going. The largest creditor nation in the world is on the ropes ( Japan ) . The Dow/Gold Ratio has said that gold is the investment of choice for nearly 90 days.

I think that there is a good chance that we have seen the top in the Dow.

NJ -- One ticker, INTC. :- (

Thanks Cherokee I am looking at them right now

Anyone out there know anything about the 'Tobin Tax'. My father mentioned this after reading AG's speech. I know nothing about it, searched the web and came up with zilch.
Dad said it was mentioned a few months ago in the papers and alluded to a tax on profits derived from the markets. The concept came out of England and thought of by a Mr Tobin.

The only result of negetive comments by Alan Greenspan is that the market either goes up or moves sideways. His Dec/96 'irrational exuberance' comment that tack another 25% onto the DOW. Why are we taking this guy serious anymore ? Anyone care to explain why AG is not 'really' respected on Wall Street ?

Cheers.

Found it on Alta Vista

In the 1970's James Tobin, a Nobel prizewinning American economist, proposed a very small tax on foreign exchange transactions to deter short-term currency speculation.
http://www.sierraclub.ca/national/halifax/issues/tobin/

Time is running out for international efforts to resolve the debt crisis
http://www.sierraclub.ca/national/halifax/news/sept9.html
The IMF has $US 40 billion in gold bars sitting in a
vault but it refuses to divert a portion of that stock to provide debt reduction. Instead the Fund is proposing to sell some gold to finance a fund that would provide mostly new loans
with very harsh economic conditions attached

Does anyone know the PE ratio of the nikkei 250?

Could be a little turbulence here on in, earnings jitters you know. Seeing as how most gold miners don't have any to speak of, we should be O.K. :- ) )

Avid Chatter:

today was very negative. Not on any T/A basis, but if if you look at companies issuing earnings reports, only a handful saw their shares go up today. Even companies beating estimates got pounded. Expectations are sky high. The market won't seriously tank, however, unless there is a trigger. But I think there has been a significant change in trend which could dent investor optimism.

if we get down below last weeks low on the spoos there will be alot of bull blood

nasdaq looks like it has had it and may well gap down bigtime in the morning.....dow has been lackluster at best hardly the thing bull legs are made of and the spoos well they haven't been doin squat since greenie warned last week ....only reason we came back from the edge today was cas the fed was in buying bonds again ....even with that there was nothing bullish about the day

in spite of the eternal optimism prevalent there is weakness out there ....it smells fishy ....I find the odour unbearable

not only will we correct we shall be probing much lower before too long

fcxjx Buyer: I just checked Yahoo ( Japan +101 ) and they have it shown as "not available" I remember reading somewhere that it was still "pretty high" by US standards.

Interesting link http://www.ptdiscount.com/ check out the link to, "How your broker makes money."

I see platinum and palladium are going early this evening....

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/stox/bstoxprice.html

panda : Intel trading at 86 3/4. Down 5 1/8.

Energy prices down on easing tensions:

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100g.htm

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/z0009_65.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/14/y0004_z00_2.html

In USA for various reasons from time to time, the Government has set up regulations governing what, when, where, at what price, and who could do business with whom. The regulations usually control monopolistic franchises ( electric, telephone, and gas utilities ) and sometimes non-exclusive type providers of goods and services ( airlines, railroads, truck haulage ) . To deregulate is to get the Gov't. out and let the market forces determine pricing, product, etc., and opens the business activities to one and all who choose to participate. There are anti-trust laws to prohibit any practices which would unfairly ( illegally ) limit competition. It is in a word eliminating Gov't. from the business scene as far as is practical. It works!

From AVID

http://www.iglobal.net/pub/swtrans/gold%20plat.gif
I have been following Gold and Platinum for many years..and find this to be a interesting occurrence. based on this chart...When Gold and Platinum come to with $10-15 of each other. I know there is a rule of thumb on valuing the price differences.. I will buy Plat. heavily next time the come together... Any comments from gold traders?

Mike Sheller: Your 19:39 post acknowlged. I will refrain from that topic in the future. Perhaps my reference was too "popularized". However, I think you will agree with what I have been doing with my posts - even if they were not on gold. I was trying to give perspective -- hoping same from others.

Yahoo showing S.A. down 2.09%. Hmmm
I don't like the smell of this market. Been watching daily trading and any time Gold attempts a rally it's beaten down fast.
Sold my position today and will watch from the sidelines near term.
Last Thursday's action ( -6.00 ) before the CPI anouncement stinks big time. I still have found no reasonable explanation for that move down.
Another test of 320. is very possible.... : - ( (

DONALD: Keep up the good posting work. Makes my life a breeze looking for info. Much appreciated.

GEORGE COLE & STEVE PUETZ: Seems like the Dow is topping out gradually. Am wondering whether we may see a 1966 to 1974 scenario play out from here, rather than a 1929 - 1933 scenario. The US bubble effect would seem to indicate the latter, but after 25 years of "the market always goes up", I feel it may take some time for the buy on a dip crowd to back off properly. Had a LOW income client on the phone this morning, who hasn't even got enough money to buy herself a house ( aged 48 ) . "Should I buy some shares?, as my cash rates are so low" I fall off the chair. The fear has gone!! Australian resource shares are better value at the moment than industrial shares ( in general terms )

HELP: Any suggestions on what INFLATION OR DEFLATION is going to do? It seems that the stock market has had it ( virtually ) , & I want to know how much risk is there in holding BONDS like Warren Buffett is starting to do. If the deflation scenario plays out ( which I think is somewhat likely ) , then Bonds may be fairly good for a while yet ( compared to cash ) . But Mexico & that Bond crash still haunts me. Could we see a short term interest hike that hits bonds temporarily, then the interest rates ease off within a year or so, when the world economies spiral into further deflation? Bonds would still hold their own. This is not to decry holding gold, but purely utilising a diversified portfolio outlook. I am greatly concerned by bonds, but with Buffett heading that way, it certainly smells of deflation big time. Have I missed something???

E.M.U: I feel that EMU will happen. It will not last. But watch out US! With Japan drifting towards starting it's own Monetary Rescue Fund for the region ( initial stages of YEN block? which I predicted 6 months ago ) this spells double trouble.

MAHATHIR: Do not underestimate his Anti-Semitic comments. Quite likely they are widely held views through many Asian Muslim based countries. If deflation really spreads world wide, these Asian countries may join in with the Middle East Muslims to attack Israel big time. Funnily enough, I think SOROS is doing a job ( aware or unaware ) to soften up the world community to accept a ONE world currency in the long term. When various countries start getting serious unemployment due to these currency attacks ( regardless of whether Soros or Govt mismanagement is the reason or not ) , the political agenda will eventually drift to accepting a single world currency that cannot be "visibly" manipulated like this. However, it too will still be debased due to the fiat system. Hence it will also fail. Globalism is overtaking "the Nation State", but will not provide a credible replacement system when they attempt to overthrow the nation state.

To all: One of the posts today stated that members of Congress had asked AG to speak on a topic of their choice. Is that a cover, or have we been disinformed?
If AG was really asked to present something on 10/28, we will be sorely disappointed! No gold standard, etc. I would have guessed that any momentous statements such as problems with derivatives, or moving to a gold standard of some kind would happen no earlier than Jan 1998. Can't spook the market during those delicate fall months!
Anyone -- Did Greenspan ask to speak on 10/28, or not?

I think the reason for the spin and the manipulation is that if this thing came apart international cooperation based on the dollar would break down and there would be the chance of unforeseen radical socio political changes.

Peter ( born loser ) - INTEL is a market internal. Themarkets move on just Intel rumors. Pentium chips are just a commodity now. Ever body and his brother are making chips - Asia.
IBM, Motorolla, Apple's Power PC chip is better especially with the new COPPER technology. Apple should be up tomorrow along with COPPER.

Historical Tidbit --

XAU dropped 45% from 155 to 85 in October 1987!

SIG: That is the only thing that really nags at me. Gold stocks went down durring the Gulf War also. So if the market is going to crash tomorrow, why did I increase my position in gold & natural resources? FOOL'S GOLD

Bon Jour my brudders at de Kitco. I'm just put 100K on some golden
mine companies, plus some onto precarious mental fund. Butt now my
head she spin so bad it make me sick. What I'm to do?

Australia to go to war with Indonesia in the future??
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971015/feature/feature1.html

JTF: "Anyone -- Did Greenspan ask to speak on 10/28, or not?"



I would think that spin on a "routine, prearrnged and normal meeting" would be the *only* logical reply to such a *brash* statement that sent everyone to a high-worry mode and highly speculative between now and the 28th.
My opinion: sure he did. I don't believe Mr. Greenspan has sold out his earlier gold philosophies....

Australian company CSR joins procession of blue chips taking big write offs. A$400 MILLION write off!! Partly due to ASIAN venture. Just as I thought would begin to happen.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971015/invest/invest1.html
I guess there is a lot more to come yet. There was a good article in the Business Review Weekly the other day that stock analysts grossly over-estimate earnings etc. This flows into above real stock values, only to be harshly written off later on. You have been warned.

Poor Pierre -- Pray the Rosary!

Search this propaganda article to find details on Japanese Finance Bail Out plan which is regaining ground again ( after the idea started to fade out earlier ) http://www.afr.com.au/content/971015/world/world1.html

You always do acheive a good perspective. I wasn't taking you to task, just expressing my distaste for the watered down tripe that passes for "spiritual" insight these days. As Saint Paul once said to a certain congregation seeking spiritual insights ( greatest ad man and marketing genius in history ) "You are ready only for milk, but perhaps you can be prepared for strong meat someday." ( I'm paraphrasing, so biblical students please forgive me ) . ( Maybe this was the original "got milk" campaign )

Hey Manson--I thought your prisonmates in the adjacent cells were Webster Hubbell and Susan MacDougal.

Donald, Mike Sheller: Did you both see my 11:49 post? I transcribed AG's gold comments, and repeated my comment on the 1990 Univ of Warwick Economic Symposium on moving back to the gold standard ( secretly ) .
Regardless of what AG says on Oct 28, he is clearly worried about the exploding world-wide derivatives activity, and the fact that electronic money creation makes monetary inflation easier than ever! My take on all of this is that the antidote he proposes is going back on the gold standard, modified by the same electronic miracle that creates instant money! I must admit I am skeptical about this because someone could "inflate" the electronic ( ie, like paper ) gold too! Perhaps someone already has!
Mike Sheller: In regard to one of your most recent posts: From an ethical point of view you and I agree that hidden manipulation of a world's currency should not be allowed. It is possible that others, and not AG initiated this central bank activity. If you reviewed the history of gold long before the advent of derivative trading, I think you would find hidden manipulation of markets is nothing new ( eg 1925 when the European bankers came to the US, effectively asking for gold ) . I do not consider this an excuse, but I do appreciate AG's implicit admission in the Cato speech that the derivative trading had gotten out of hand. The key question is whether it is too late to do anything about this world-wide problem. Do you recall my comment about the fact that the street light invariably gets put up after a death occurs at the intersection? Imagine trying to regulate or tax the LBMA! The traders would just go somewhere else, like Istanbul, for example! Strong World-wide regulation of derivatives in the near future is highly unlikely! I wish I was wrong about that, but some aspects of human nature are quite predictable!

MoreGold -- If we're still in a bear market for gold, then there are no support points. That being said, $324 + change is the 'support' line. If we break that, it will speak volumes. As in, "Helloooo Beloooow!" Then again, who knows with this stuff!     There I said it! Translation, stocks S__K!

Some excellent articles in 15th Oct. edition of Sydney Morning Herald.
Too many to post quickly. Donald, you may like to do it!??
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/index.html
Re: Asian situation, Indonesia IMF etc.

Mike Sheller-I see $20.00 more for Gold by Thursday or me eat crow.Happy Trails

One thing is perfectly clear to me. The volatility in this market has gotten to the point where one cannot leave positions unattended for any length of time ( as in minutes ) . The volatility beast is here! Uncertainty abounds. Pigs are starting to fly.
On that note, I bid you all a good night.

Allen, all: Allen your post of 19:52 essentially is the same as my "take"
I wish I could believe that AG would say on Oct 28 what you have said, basically go on the gold standard, and rein in the derivatives.
One thing you did say really rings true with me. In the old days, how much gold you owned reflected on how strong your currency was ( corrected for size of economy ) . Why not do that again, but now with the advantage of electronic transactions? The flow of physical gold would offer the only true anchor, as it did in the past. There will be many individuals who will resist this concept, as it acknowledges that gold is money ( heaven forbid! ) . One correlary to this is that all of a sudden there will be some large countries who will need to buy lots of gold. Japan for example! But -- please! not from Fort Knox!

panda: I wouldn't have said it quite that colorfully, but you certainly can't "Fight City Hall! When the CB/LBMA powers that be are willing to let gold rise, it will rise to it's equilibrium point, which I think is at least $600, given the last 100 years, discounting that "blip" in 1980. Until then, supply and demand are meaningless!

to {about e-gold}
All transactions are entered/executed in two stages;
1 ) Preview, where all the numbers and arithmetic are displayed, and then, if numbers are acceptable to you,
2 ) Confirmation.

Details of InExchange http://www.e-gold.com/synopsis.htm#CTM

Your example of $2000 in would result in net 5.9167 oz ( troy ) gold at this moment

We try to make everything transparent so there are no surprises.
exchange rates ( bid ) https://www.e-gold.com/acct/rates.htm#Exchange
Examiner https://www.e-gold.com/acct/examiner.htm

You need a secure server ( SSL-capable ) to access account creation and transaction pages

JTF: Greenspan has always favored a gold standard. It remains to be seen whether his vision is a modified one, as had been in effect for most of this century prior to 1972, or a true, pure gold standard. Only a true Gold Standard, where every paper note written is a receipt for a stated amount of gold in a vault, safe, drawer or mattress, will work. Any other form will be corrupted by human imperfection and deviousness. There will always appear to be "some" reason why it would be salutary, for the "common good," for the rights of the people to honest money and true property ownership to be abridged and revoked ( see the postings of WW for all the reasons why, etc ) . The objections to the gold standard are ostensibly that prices will "fall", or that "not enough money will be created fast enough to foster economic growth." This is nonsense. People who say things like that don't understand the function of a unit of money value, nor the illusory utility of more money rather than a static supply, or even less. It is the value of the monetary unit that is of prime importance. Greenspan gives the appearance that he is protecting the value of the monetary unit with his policies, but as long as the fiat credit note issue is growing without a unit for unit gold backing, there is chronic inflation and interminable deterioration of the people's money. Actually, it is the state's money. The people's money, gold, was taken away a long time ago.In the financial cataclysm that will put an end to this, the people will have to find their true money once again. Then the state must conform to the natural and metaphysical laws of the chosen monetary unit, gold, rather than the monetary unit, paper, made malleable to the whims of the state. Greenspan is in the position of a second story man hanging out with murderers . His October 28 speech should be a resignation in the face of a hopeless and chronic currency rot.
He should shrug.

October 14, 1997
LME acted 'promptly' in aluminium squeeze - Alcan

NEW YORK, Oct 14 ( Reuters ) - The London Metal Exchange acted "promptly""in its regulation of the backwardation in the aluminium market, believed by many to be the result of a squeeze, according to an executive at Alcan Aluminium Ltd . The LME limited the daily backwardation to $5 a day in late August after the tomorrow-next day spread widened to as much as $40 in what Roger Scott-Taggart, Alcan's director of industry analysis, called "a classic squeeze."

"I think the LME acted reasonably quickly on the backwardation," Scott-Taggart told reporters at a press briefing on Tuesday. "It's not something that affected us. In terms of our hedging activities we weren't impinged at all."

He said LME chief executive David King was called upon by the Securities & Investment Board, the U.K. regulatory body, to "keep an eye on""such squeezes. "Taking a gamble on a particular time period that the market is going to be short is obviously a legitimate speculative activity," Scott-Taggart said. "The question is when you try to corner the market, which can be done for a relatively small amount of money when there's only 700,000 tonnes of inventory, it's against the rules of common conduct."

The LME's intervention "showed that the LME can act and will act promptly," he said.
-- Derek J. Caney, New York commodity desk, 212-859-1646

Doug J..Thank you for your straight answer..
Poorboy..eating crow may not be to bad around here. They have been dive-bombing and getting fat on walnuts.

Hang Seng down another 237 ( 1.71% ) ....domino theory in the works! CherOkee: No whales yet ( puff puff ) and I'll blow yer house down...

Hang Seng down 272 ( 1.97% ) .......Good night ALL!

ARRRGGGGGGGG! Me befixxed that thar Kitco chat.
Tis I has been ta sea fer lang a was er plundering
round da werld. Me sees ye galdbugs be still er.
Taint ben plundered enuf by du likes a me. Me be
not waitin much mer fer me gald ta be a risin mates.

remember: you may have to scroll ALL the way past Oct. 14 posts to get to Oct. 15 new posts ( until 0400 )

Asia looking very weak again, big day tomorrow.
CPI this week right?
Good Night All