Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 00:03 - ID#57232)
Cherokee -- Oh but I do! Adorable Dora of Heinlein fame!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 00:14 - ID#57232)
@Home - with only my posts!
I'm all alone on the 17th of October - noone else figured this out, or all asleep!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 00:15 - ID#364165)
Pegasus Gold up today in the face of other
gold shares falling. Any comments?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 00:25 - ID#401460)
Mexican refers to $100 Gold - No one seems to understand why the CBs are selling
The chairman of one of Mexico's top four mining companies said Wednesday that further central bank gold sales on global markets would be suicidal for prices.

The Major
(Thu Oct 16 1997 00:26 - ID#372425)
@Major Cash Position
Interesting exchange tonight gentlemen/women and others.
I agree that GSC/RJ/Donald/Nick... etc. etc..and yes,even
are interesting and educational reads.Carry on,with civility.

My observations lead me to the opinion that gold will stay fairly
flat for another month or more,with downside at 320 and upside at
330 to 335.This of coarse barring any major catastrophy in the gulf.
Also,I don't forsee a major " crash scenario " in the markets,but do
strongly believe a correction of 10% to 20% is inevitable within
this same period.

Personally,I am in a majority cash position and am into speculative
issues of Junior Resource Co's in a hit and run fashion,as well as
playing the Junior Producers in the swings for 25% or so,hoping not
to get caught holding anything if/when the excrement hits the fan.

Just my two nuggets worth.Play nice and play safe folks.Dreams are
sweeter that way.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 00:31 - ID#348286)
JTF: A certain entity has been very active on the sell side the last few weeks. They have been previously linked with CB sales. Rumour is they are acting for a CB again, and this has been mentioned more than once in the media.
This fits in with the sluggish trading, and inability to rally, very similar to the conditions just before the last announcement of the Aussi sale, and the downward spiral.
This market is super secretive you have to get your info wherever you can, and do a lot of reading in between lines.
I also don't doubt RJ's comment tonight.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 00:32 - ID#411259)
..... Other Stuff .....

I was totally blindsided by the Aussie announcement, which was timed to keep the US out of the game for 2 days. The July 3 announcement was followed by closed US market on July 4 and the whole world got to trade July 7 before we had a chance. A dirty trick, that. As for awareness of the CB sales - yes, we did know these sales were occurring, as we also knew of the Netherlands, and the Belgium sales. I am a precious metals broker, I am inundated with enormous amounts of information every day, We all have our contacts at international banks, and on the trading floors. This world is much smaller than you might think.

I did, however, have my clients into heavy gold shorts, because I knew of the sales. I also told this group in June that there would be more CB sales before the year is out.

Read the above and know: I have zero agenda here. I do not wish to convince anybody of anything. I am reporting information that I consider reliable and factual. I ask nobody to believe what I say, nor am I making any recommendation of any particular course of action. All I know is gold should drop to new lows. This is a short term tactical scenario, and unlikely to even concern the long term investor. You may believe what you will. Those that have followed my posts have seen my projections bear fruit time and again. I admit to my mistakes when made, but my clients still make much more than they loose. I must be doing something right.

Donald and Silverbug-
The company I work for is the largest seller of all forms of gold, silver, and platinum coins in the country. We are the largest customer of the US Mint and the Royal Canadian Mint. Out of a total of 40K Platinum American Eagle Coins minted this year, we have already sold 8 thousand. Sales of bullion coins are not appreciably up. We are selling about the same amount as last year, and the year before. If you added all the coin dealers in the country together, they don't do the volume we do. That fact that our bullion coin sales are roughly static does not mean that other dealers have not seen increases, but I think our 20,000 + clientele offers a valid cross section of the country at any given time.

Half the time I don't know what you are even trying to say, but I sure love the way you say it. Any one who has read some of my bleaker notes will realize, I love that apocalyptic stuff. Really gets the blood up, don't it???

Had a pretty significant relationship with a lass from Taiwan a decade and a half ago. Gave me an endless fascination for the culture, a supreme fondness for the food, and a complete mastery of chopsticks. You are a lucky man..

The Major
(Thu Oct 16 1997 00:34 - ID#372425)
@Major Cash Position
Interesting exchange tonight gentlemen/women and others.
I agree that GSC/RJ/Donald/Nick... etc. etc..and yes,even
are interesting and educational reads.Carry on,with civility.

My observations lead me to the opinion that gold will stay fairly
flat for another month or more,with downside at 320 and upside at
330 to 335.This of coarse barring any major catastrophy in the gulf.
Also,I don't forsee a major " crash scenario " in the markets,but do
strongly believe a correction of 10% to 20% is inevitable within
this same period.

Personally,I am in a majority cash position and am into speculative
issues of Junior Resource Co's in a hit and run fashion,as well as
playing the Junior Producers in the swings for 25% or so,hoping not
to get caught holding anything if/when the excrement hits the fan.

Just my two nuggets worth.Play nice and play safe folks.Dreams are
sweeter that way.

The Wichita Lineman
(Thu Oct 16 1997 00:36 - ID#374200)
You have got to get some new material. Sounds like you have been reading Steve Allen's how to be funny books, ( which are not funny ) . Here's one: Yesterday my girlfriend used oral contraception on me. I asked her to make love and she said 'no'.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 00:41 - ID#433234)
Tortfeasor.. been wondering were you were for the past week.. Missed the jokes...Last wednesday I was up at a Tahoe casino checking some horse racing. At kneeland KY, was a horse called Tortfeasor. Just because of you I made a nice bet across the board and it came in first..Thanks for the little pot of gold..

Bernatz de Ventadorm
(Thu Oct 16 1997 00:41 - ID#25028)
For Monsiour RJ - Please explain zee expression
"heard mentality" zat you use zo frequently. Ees eet
zee mentalitee of someone who "heard" somezing ?? By
gar zees ees one tough language.

Oh - to all - Eet ees with great sadness zat I have
"HEARD" zat zee banque of zee pyranees ees zee next
major european seller of zee beautiful gold after zee
foppish Franch bureaucracy zat desearve zee guillotine.

Also I have "heard" from zee wizards of zee Pyranees
zat the gold will go to 305 !!! I cannot believe zees.
But zee wizards - zey are nevair wrong. Zey are even
better zen the WC ( Wizards of California ) - Alors eet
gets to cold now to hitch up zee skairts.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 00:43 - ID#57232)
@Home -- good night
Thanks -- RJ and More Gold. You both have been very helpful in explaining a market that is still very puzzling to me. I did see the failure of gold/silver to rally, and had pulled back. The key to this market is very clearly knowing when the elephants sit down -- namely the Central Banks.
Their buying or selling cycle clearly sets the tone - and technical traders who fail to detect this cycle get squashed! Here's to free exchange of information on the net so that we all benefit - anywhere in the world our members are.
Too bad there are some who distort the concept of difference of opinion into personal attacks. Goodnight all!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 00:47 - ID#401460)
It's Late Good Night
If Gold cost $100/ ounce, will any one want to give it to their Lady? That would mean that next year at the ballpark we may find gold prizes in our Cracker Jacks. That really is a sad and scary thought. Oh for the disco days - gold chains and all.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 01:34 - ID#316409)
Platinum, Thumbs up, RJ, thumbs down
Ahh I log on and see that Hepcat and all his annoying posts under various handles have been replaced by RJ's ceaselessly tiresome egocentric posts. ( ..Yawn... ) At least I can take comfort that it's past HepCat's bedtime and Platinum made excellent progress today. Come on silver, play some catch up..... Gold at $280 indeed..RJ, you're getting as Moronic as Puetz with his Lunar crash predictions.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 01:50 - ID#316409)
@Puetz, RJ
You both predict crashes real soon
And you both sing a similar tune
RJ's Ego drives his shots
Puetzes Lunar fix his thoughts
And you both now deserve the FULL MOON.
( _'_ )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 01:58 - ID#403267)
BCMD= Brush Creek Mining & Dev, BCMD on Nasdaq. I never heard of 'em before yesterday either!: )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 02:03 - ID#403267)
Re: Pegasus. One comment, I wish I had averaged down! For awhile in low 4's thought that horse would never fly!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 02:08 - ID#255285)
@ Soapbox

Periodically, perhaps each lunar cycle, Kitco seems to suffer the odium of the postings of an obnoxioussssss little twerp. It has driven out many posters who may or may not still be lurking. ( Kitco may indeed be a Turing demonstration - the real and the ethereal - ) *some* of those whose postings I miss include AUROELF, OLDMAN, D.A. GLENN, AUROPHILE.

Heartfelt thanks from this antipodean auracious one to all those who have posted gems and given generously of their time and experience because they *want* to. Nothing else. Now we're always gonna get those who abuse any system, from Social Welfare ( Security ) to honesty boxes on road-side stalls selling produce. Small-minded nogoodniks who get their rocks off ripping-off others. Never realising they are actually only robbing from themselves. It is my belief that you get out what you put in. T

hose who post and participate in the various discussions here gain more than those who lurk in the corners. It is always a fine thing to see a lurker *appoach the microphone.* Most people ( imnsfho ) who are attracted to this site have something to contribute, I mean, this is a gold chat-line right? Youre not going to fall across this site looking for sewing patterns. Why have you found this site? If you have found it, chances are that you can contribute something from your knowledge. Your contribution is attributed by this aurorat.

Although UpchuckCat has caused some fine posters to stop, I am deeply appreciative of those who have resisted this vomiting and have continued to post. George Cole, sometimes, when I read what I have written, I can see how it can be misunderstood. Please do not misunderstand, that my respect for your continued committment to this site is very deep, as it is for all those who generously give of their knowledge and humour, OK, and BS, we all like the BS too.

Upchuckcat, is a sad case. I feel more sorry for his family, Id feel sorry for his friends too, but..chances are he hasnt got any.

So many fine people visit this site, I thank you all.

now, pass the salt please ;- ) )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 02:16 - ID#403267)
@RJ, Bernatz
RJ So who said chocolate is bad for your figure, go skate it off, but if you keep hiking those skirts you'll need the energy! In any case you'll have to get busy to get rid of a five pound Almond bar! Bernatz, you been in the Pyrenees too long, its about 80 out there in ( as a jewish friend of mine used to say ) Kallay Fornn Knee AHHH. Plenty warm enough to tease with the hems: )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 02:22 - ID#403267)
gooseAhorseisAhorse of course...
goose, Have you not unknowingly solved the mystery of where Tort has been...couldn't make any money on gold so off to the races in four legged form. And of course he won!
Good Night all and Golden Dreams...

Bernatz de Ventadorm
(Thu Oct 16 1997 03:02 - ID#25028)
Bonjour to all ma Keetko frens -

For Monsiour RJ - Please explain zee expression
"heard mentality" zat you use zo frequently. Ees eet
zee mentalitee of someone who "heard" somezing ?? By
gar zees ees one tough language.

Oh - to all - Eet ees with great sadness zat I have
"HEARD" zat zee banque of zee pyranees ees zee next
major european seller of zee beautiful gold after zee
foppish Franch bureaucracy zat desearve zee guillotine.

Also I have "heard" from zee wizards of zee Pyranees
zat the gold will go to 305 !!! I cannot believe zees.
But zee wizards - zey are nevair wrong. Zey are even
better zen the WC ( Wizards of California ) - Alors eet
gets too cold now to hitch up zee skairts.


Bernatz de Ventadorm
(Thu Oct 16 1997 03:14 - ID#25028)
Bonjour to all ma Keetko frens -

For Monsiour RJ - Please explain zee expression
"heard mentality" zat you use zo frequently. Ees eet
zee mentalitee of someone who "heard" somezing ?? By
gar zees ees one tough language.

Oh - to all - Eet ees with great sadness zat I have
"HEARD" zat zee banque of zee pyranees ees zee next
major european seller of zee beautiful gold after zee
foppish Franch bureaucracy zat desearve zee guillotine.

Also I have "heard" from zee wizards of zee Pyranees
zat the gold will go to 305 !!! I cannot believe zees.
But zee wizards - zey are nevair wrong. Zey are even
better zen the WC ( Wizards of California ) - Alors eet
gets too cold now to hitch up zee skairts.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 03:45 - ID#255151)

Been thinking about the soon to be announced gold sale. Seems to me the reaction of gold to this news will be a good indicator of the market, ie. bull/bear. Who knows, maybe the shorts are waiting for the announcement as their cue for attack. I still got some dry powder and will buy aggressively if the news is not accompanied by a sustained drop of $10 or more.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 03:48 - ID#252127)
Pegasus an Old Stud Horse and Possible Sale of French and/or German Gold Stocks

Robear; Pegasus sells gold at approximately $100 above recent spot prices and cannot make a profit. This old stud horse is in need of penal reconstuctive surgery or a $500 plus gold price before the golden fillies take notice. Perhaps some unwashed newcomers to gold will send her in flight, but only a $2.50 US price will make the real bugs take notice.
Better to look at today's and past releases on Richmont Mines. Even Aurizon at Can $1.25 looks interesting, report today about the deep drilling.
No big reserves for either -so far, but they keep adding and make money and are conservatively managed.
All; if the French or the Germans unload some gold reserves, I see an unhappy and public outcry by their gentry.
Only reason I can see it happening is that the resulting drop in their currencies will make them more competitive.
ISN'T IT A JOKE, THEY GIVE UP REAL WEALTH for paper profit that may be lost in an instance when the buck hits the wall. I quess Greenspan and Rubin will have them house broken when they do sell a couple of hundred tonnes of the yellow.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:13 - ID#255284)
@ auradora
Auric, G'day, even with downside to under 300, we are talking a mere 10% from today, vs greater, far greater upside potential. I was once lucky with market timing and i thought i was smart, then I wasn't smart and then i realised i was just lucky, now i leave timing to the fancy pants RJs, and do what else I do. Soon I too will sell the farm, now just cash and precious, buying as the whim takes, knowing i was lucky to wait as long as i did before buying...

my preciouss


Strad Master
(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:16 - ID#250297)
ALL: Another full moon night here at Kitco. This is, after all, the full moon before Halloween, so a bit of craziness is to be expected.

Thought y'all would enjoy this tidbit from yesterdays New York Times concerning some of the extraordinary reqests made of the Brazilian government in preparation for Clinton's trip.:

"Perhaps the most unexpected request was that Brazil's 160 million citizens suspend Daylight Saving's time during the President's visit to allow him another hour to prepare for his evening schedule."

How's that for chutspah? Has this economic bubble made our fearless leader arrogant, or what? Anyone remember the old book "How To Win Friends And Influence People"?

To Sollog Watchers: Is the Pope dead yet?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:22 - ID#255284)
Next Stop Regent Street...
On the underground this morning, a Tory MP is considering purchasing a GOLD and diamond O-ring for his 19 year-old checkout fancy bit...

Diamonds: Russia in trial return to De Beers cartel
By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent
Russia is set to rejoin the diamond cartel organised by De Beers of South Africa but traders suggest the initial contract will be a short one to see if Russia can live up to the terms and spirit of the new agreement.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:29 - ID#255284)
This guitar is for sale.
Strad Master G'day, well, it presents an interesting dilemma, papal-wise. Cos my 16 Oct has only 2.30 hrs left. I tell, you, the last thing you want to do, if you get into the predictin' business is specify a date, Ain't that how the Millerites became the 7th day adventists, the end of the world is best left described in amorphous meaningless verse, like Nostradamus.

I don't think prophets live as long, or as happily as musicians.

just mho ;- )

Strad Master
(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:31 - ID#250297)
To Those Interested in Sollog: Go visit this site: Even the Swedish guy who has been maintianing the Sollog site is now starting to think the guy is nuts! The main page is still counting down the days to Clinton's death but has already removed the Pope since the Pope is still alive and kicking. Perhaps the "God of Gods" isn't omnipotent after all??

(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:33 - ID#255284)
did he say they're gonna tax GOLF??? That is some HERESY... No $$$ 4U
That's not British No;;

Thailand: ADB presses banks to back bailout
By Ted Bardacke in Bangkok
The Asian Development Bank is attempting to organise a global syndicate of commercial banks to provide additional support for Thailand's international reserves, ADB officials said.
The extra money may be needed because Thailand's financial restructuring package announced on Tuesday received a mixed reaction from foreign creditors. The reaction raised the possibility that a crucial portion of the country's short-term debt would be recalled.
Commercial bankers approached by the ADB said the total ADB package could reach $3bn ( 1.8bn ) , including $300m already pledged by the ADB as part of Thailand's $17.2bn bailout plan, organised by the International Monetary Fund.
By "piggybacking" the commercial bank loans on top of the ADB contribution to the IMF plan, private banks would ensure money lent was tied to implementation of financial sector reform. Thailand, in turn, could arrange commercial loans at more attractive interest rates than in the open market. ADB is expected to approve its $300m funding in mid-December provided Thailand meets the IMF conditions for financial market reform.
Thailand has more than $30bn in short-term debt which comes due over the next few months. Both IMF and central bank officials say that if a significant portion of that debt is recalled, the financing package will not be enough to avert a balance of payments crisis.
Japanese banks hold about half of the debt and have broadly agreed not to call in their loans. But much of the rest is held by American and European banks. Some of them feel they were misled by the Thai financial authorities' assurances about the viability of some of the 58 finance companies suspended earlier this year.
Creditor ire was exacerbated yesterday by the publication in The Nation newspaper of an internal IMF/ World Bank document, written long before the restructuring package was negotiated, which argued that "for creditors [of the 16 suspended finance companies], losses should be inflicted to the maximum extent possible in order to give strong signals that risk taking can result in losses".
Nevertheless, there were some signs of optimism. ING Bank, the Dutch bank which has exposure to some of the 16 suspended companies, said it was negotiating to inject $35m-$40m in Siam City Bank by buying a 10 per cent stake of the middle-ranking commercial bank.
Another senior European banker said his institution liked the look of the restructuring package and was rolling over its debt. But he added that his bank had no exposure to the finance companies. "I think there is a direct correlation," he said.
Markets were also mixed. The Thai stock market rose 2 per cent as investors welcomed the news that Thai foreign reserves grew $1.2bn in the last two weeks of September to $29.6bn.
The Thai government took a big step towards fulfilling its obligations to the IMF next year by cutting an additional Bt100bn ( 1.7bn ) from its 1998 budget and raising taxes on oil and imported consumer goods. Excise taxes were also raised on alcoholic beverages, tobacco and golf courses.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:35 - ID#255151)

Howdy aurator, Strad--Yep, I agree that by 2000, probably much sooner, gold will have soared ( i.e. flight from EMU, Yen, and Dollar ) . Have invested according to that belief. Will continue to use this "Indian Summer" to keep accumulating the preciousses. Strad or anyone else--I stumbled upon a site that was devoted to "Matapedia", an album by two Canadian sisters ( ? ) , which got rave reviews. Ever hear of it?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:41 - ID#255284)
K & A McGarrrigle.?
Auric URL me

Strad Master
(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:45 - ID#250297)
New music
AURIC: Nope. Never heard of Matapedia. ( Sounds like some sort of insect! ) What kind of music do they do?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:47 - ID#255151)

Kate and Anne McGarrigle is right

(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:47 - ID#252127)
Who is right CMP or The Mining Journal?

CMP predicts 8 million newly mined gold ounces by 2006, while the Mining Journal says 18 million newly mined ounces in just two years.
Only the CMP article is here.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:50 - ID#186297)
I have been visiting this site quite often the past few weeks, and find
most of the posts both interesting and informative. This is my first
posting, and will be my last. I find it quite disturbing that a few self
selected people seem to think that their opinion is the only one that
matters, and everbody else has no idea what their talking about. This
is no way to run a site such as this, as it discourages somebody new
to the site from adding their opinions or comments. One more thing
before I depart, who the hell does this "I am the Aurator" character
think he is, and who is he trying to impress? After reading any one
of his posts, which never amount to anything more than mindless
babble, I'm reminded of the old saying,"If you can't dazzle them with
your intelligence, baffle them with bullshit". Should this guy ever get
tired of playing with his little mouse all night, he could have a great
career ahead of him in politics.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:52 - ID#255151)

Strad, I'd never heard of them, but I gather it to be Irish-French-Canadian Folk type music. They are from Quebec.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:55 - ID#255284)
the music of the planets... Ike NEWTIE.. for you babe...
Auric, not heard of album, these sisters have produced high quality recorded folk music for 2 decades, will look for it, tnx ;- )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:57 - ID#26793)

Bernatz de Ventadorm
(Thu Oct 16 1997 04:58 - ID#25028)
Ma frans

Sorry to push zee button so many times - When I zink of ze hitch zee
skairt games, mah hand she shakes. Also, eet ees so cold at zeez altitude. Brrrrrrr, alors

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:00 - ID#26793)

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:01 - ID#255151)

Man, where did Bucky come up with THAT? You're reading the "auratormeister" wrong, my man.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:06 - ID#26793)

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:11 - ID#26793)

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:15 - ID#386245)
Bucky--glad to hear it's your last post here, mate. Our Auracious Kiwi is one of the best posters on this site. If you had posted even one billionth of the interesting and informative posts that he has, I'd be happy to have you stick around. Go lurk somewhere else, mate!! Suggest you try Hep@cat--good site, would suit you well!!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:29 - ID#386245)
South Korea the next economy to melt-down ( -4.22% today ) . Singapore not looking too healthy either ( -2.74% ) . Nikkei has bounced rather well off the 17,000 barrier. IMHO the government has drawn a line in the sand at that level and are 'suggesting' that support start there.

Donald--any info on S. Korean banks in trouble. BTW-- I hear that the Japanese/Arab bank Koufuku-Youssef is planning on a merger with the big Indonesian Waidonjo Bank. At last report they are searching for a name.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:30 - ID#386276)
@ Aussie
Not sure but I think most psychic guys only get a glimpse at the future.
They see more than the most but what they see is sort of foggy, ill-defined.
I personaly think that the are half crankpots but then my grandmother was one and was asked frequently by police to help them out on specific cases. She was even sought out by HRH Prince of Wales in 1926 on a visit to NZ to read his fortune, after he noticed in the news that they were talking about her accuracy.
She forcast "that he would become King of England but would never be crowned." These details I get from my 84 year father sitting right next to me. My father still has the copy of the royal command to my grandmother, requesting her to visit him, and can still recollect the beautifull car that was sent to pick her up.
Strange things hey?
I don't know but it wouldn't surprise me if what Sollog saw was possibly
John Denver instead of "John the Devine"
Who knows or will ever know?
I sometimes think that this art of prophecy is what many of us see ( look ) for, here on Kitco.
Cherokee being the most esoteric viewer of the future.
RJ ( no offence please RJ ) seems to be the true pragmatist with Cherokee ( no offence please Cherokee ) being at the opposite end of the scale.
I admire them most out of all as they encompass everything in between. But I truly love EB as he is a poet with passion above all.

All the rest of us simply sit somewhere in between. Hoping that what we choose the right decision and therefore become richer.

Hepcat, etc in my mind doesn't even exist.

Please no offence to anyone. Just rambling?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:34 - ID#26793)
@AP-NewswireOctober 30, 1929

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:34 - ID#396137)
@ Respectfully
As stated several times I'm facinated and have a lot of respect
for people that have a contrarian opinion to the herd or group,
as in our case. Sooo when and RJ, and even a character like Hepcat,
speak of gold $310 and possibly lower in the next week or two, and
their track records have not been all that bad, I sit up and listen
However in checking my work, and charts, which is almost a full time
thing with me, I don't see down but do see up. Yes there will be corrections on the way up, as there always are, but severe drops from these levels I don't perceive.
So RJ Hepcat, what am I missing?
Admitedly many charts have not yet confirmed a bull market, but on the other hand they are making interesting bottoming patterns.
Another interesting observation, you'll find some gold stocks will go up while others will correct. This also is not unusual.
Good looking charts, at least to me GLG HM BGO South African gold stocks
as well.
Place your bets and let the games begin.
One more thing, a little over 100 years ago in the early 1890's the beginning of the bear market which lated some 4 years, and went into
a severe recession, started with a slow grinding gradual down move,
and only later accellerated. With the bulls and the bears battling,
we may, I repleat MAY, get a replay. Tune in at the turn of the century
and see.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:35 - ID#386276)
Check out this view

PS I think I lean towards the peace pipe - To see the future like none here can see!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:40 - ID#386276)
Nick@C Did you load up on WMC BHP calls/warrants today - market sentiment totally oversold - short term bounce expected, I didn't due to US sentiment and my broker calls me too nervous.
Our SPI retraced 40 odd points up, tecnical rally?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:48 - ID#26793)
CNBC insists that meeting on the 28th was at Greenspan request. The Subcommittee denies this, says it is at their request.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:50 - ID#26793)

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:53 - ID#252127)
Just a thought

Australia's Government possibly knew many months in advance that the SEA currencies would be in for hard times.
Could the RBA's gold sale been planed to drive their currency down so that they would have a semblance of trade competitiveness in their neck of the woods? The Kiwi buck generally follows and remains below the Aussie buck.
My feeling is that many countries do whatever is neccessary to avoid under employment of their work force.
The US is a bit different because we have many low paying jobs at the malls along with McDonalds and Carl Juniors to name a few.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:55 - ID#423262)

90,000 at risk in Iryan Java due to drought, haze from fires:

(Thu Oct 16 1997 05:57 - ID#33164)
my one cent's worth..

Morning ALL!!

Sad to see that even Aurator, who is so very special, is now being attacked. Perhaps George Cole's comment last week on Silence being Golden is the most appropriate action, and one should take these snide remarks from whence they came.

Thank you, Aurator for the "Mind Trap" connects with the whole process of living and self-actualisation, doesn't it? LOVE your posts-a great wisdom there!

Nick [at GWTL!] , Reify and Allen- Your posts to me were much appreciated and the 'dialogue' helps one to think things through.

I really do think that one needs some security in these changing times, and concrete investments suit me fine at the moment. Even on a Dagwood/Blondie basis, the KR's already bought over the years have already been a good investment in that I haven't 'spent' them, except in the Christmas 'Pud'!. At worst, they can always be melted down to make great jewellery. At best,the jewellery can again be melted down!

So, Nick @ GWTL- i took your advice and spent a 1/4 !

I'm off to a conference tomorrow, where, amongst others, Fred Crookes [of Fibonacci fame] will be talking. Should be interesting, and hope to give you som info on it next week.

Have a great week-end!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 06:04 - ID#386245)
G'day Nick@Oz. Didn't trade much today, mate. Added to my MIM warrants yesterday and sat and watched the market comeback today. NAB bounced back--expected if you look at the $20 support on chart. Still think the '99 19.00 put warrants are a steal!! I'm going to add to my '99 put warrants, as I can't in my wildest dreams see the market up from here. Wouldn't be surprised at $12 BHP but will probably get some WMC calls soon-especially if Voisey is delayed by environmental concerns. A negative shock announcement to get a 10% better price would be nice!! Gold shares still hangin' in there-- a bit like being nibbled to death by guppies. I still expect an explosive rise in the next few months that will leave all the chicken-shorts standing there like stunned mullet. There may be a spike down to weed out all the gutless wonders, but then it'll be full on for precious for a coupla years!! Those puts are nice insurance in the meantime!! Have got a few SPI puts also to help me sleep when EVERYTHING goes down including the 'good guys'.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 06:15 - ID#251165)
ducking blobs of testosterone
Nick @ Canberra. Whoa! LHG up, up and away. Good gain in face
of spot slump. I'm off WMC calls for good.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 06:25 - ID#255151)

Here is a short opinion piece on how Y2K will impact
stocks in the near and medium term. Required

(Thu Oct 16 1997 06:30 - ID#386245)
Jack--you are assuming that the Aussie government knows what they're doing, mate!! That's a very big assumption!! I do have a good book for you for futher research --"Aesop's Fables".

Rumpelstiltskin is another good one--from German folklore. If you can spin flax into gold, mate, I will give you my first child--unless of course I can guess your name, Jack!!!

Our Aussie government is in fairy-land. We are going to suffer big-time as the Asian economies melt down. S.Korea, eg, is our second biggest export market. They will be buying less--and Aussie companies will then go to the wall. Your share market has not yet realised that the same avalanche will soon be descending on the USA. Figure out how much Asia buys from the US--subtract 25%--then translate into US jobs/company bottom lines etc. Fortress America is long gone and you're gonna tumble with the Asians ( and the rest of us ) !!!

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 16 1997 06:46 - ID#347447)
Catchup Ketchup
Morning All! COLLEEN: Into "concrete investments," are we? Does that mean you're big on "infrastructure" plays? ( ;- ) NICK: Meant to catch up with you and tell you how much I loved your words to the tune "Yesterday" ( Yesterday? ) This morning's solloquiy on sollog, ( John Denver 'stead of John the Devine ) was real funny. You are a wit. REIFY: Couldn't agree more that the charts look like bottoms. HM and PDG are two pedigrees that seem in the process of the classic return move from their recent breakouts from an inverted H&S bottom. ( And you gave me such flak about it not being a true H&S ) This reaction will complete when HM gets to 14 ( give or take a 'steenth ) and PDG to 17 7/8 -18ish. Then the next leg up should occur. Hang in lads n' lasses. The roar in mouse BCMD illustrates the cheap, yet very valuable properties to be had these days by little mining operations. The real money in this gold cycle will be made in miners that are accumulating the parcels that are too small for the big players, and are being sold for literal dirt. Classic good business, just like what happened in '93, '94 and '95 in the energy markets. Like buying bullion, this is ta prime way to take advantage of this cycle low with staying power . Only the leverage is far greater. It's just business.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 06:51 - ID#258129)
I have "buy" signals for both gold and silver. Considering recent post about possible CB sell-off I want to be more specific. These signals mean that we are very close to some local bottom, probably just passed them. They are targeted to short-term players, based on some calculations and have nothing to do with any insider information. I myself bought december 340 calls yesterday at $2.8.
Date Close Message
Sep 26 326.50
Sep 28 - Sunday, "sell" signal, posted one day too early, sorry
Sep 29 328.20
Sep 30 334.60
Oct 01 333.85
Oct 02 330.85 "no buy signal"
Oct 03 334.70
Oct 06 332.60 "no buy signal"
Oct 07 331.10
Oct 08 333.10
Oct 09 327.20
Oct 10 329.40 "no buy signal"
Oct 12 - Sunday - "by gold, but not tomorrow"
Oct 13 328,30
Oct 14 327,80
Oct 15 326,80

(Thu Oct 16 1997 06:52 - ID#386245)
Auracious--where are you tonight, mate. Ignore the drongo. We want your pearls of wisdom.

Wake up, TED. Done yer drips in the Casino last night, didn't ya!!?? It always amuses me when you say you're goin' to Sidney ( Sydney ) to do yer shoppin'. Sho is one helluva long shoppin' trip, Saphire!!

Just to add a tiny semblance of respectability to this post--here is my second favourite type of bottom!!

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 16 1997 06:55 - ID#347447)
Bottom's up
Speaking of bottoms, is daily Copper making a nice rounding bottom here? Is the Rhino indeed beginning to canter ( soon to cantilever ) prior to a trot? Can a gallop be far behind? It may become a highly charged situation.
It never ceases to amaze me how bottoms get put in right before our eyes just as "industry experts" are spreading the most bearish of tales and projections.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 07:06 - ID#386245)
G'day, Mike. Still tryin' to convince the ladies that I'm "Good with the Ladies." My wife is sittin' ten feet away so gotta make sure she can't see the screen.

About this copper rhino, mate. Nice little upturn in the red yesterday--but all the long term know-it-alls say bearish long term. That's all I needed was to hear the experts say "copper looks bearish"--so have loaded up on long term warrants into a BIG Aussie copper producer ( MIM ) --they've got a big Argentinian mine coming on stream with MUCHOS copper AND a measly 750,000 ounces/annum of the yellow stuff to help pay the journeyman!!! I NEVER buy when things look rosy!! Figure all the smart-axx insiders have already bought!! Nobody wants these shares ( well, actually they sold about 4 mill today so somebody?? is buyin'--does Soros operate down here?? ) . Anyway, Mike, How's that pet rhino of yours doing?? Feed him well, mate!!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 07:14 - ID#333131)
Does anyone have any specific knowledge about y2k and ATM machines. I heard a "rumor" that they have to be fixed ( at a truly incredible price/machine ) . I know nothing about about them, but I guess I assumed that they would were merely slaves of some central processor? Anyone know anything about this?

Malaysian budget Friday
(Thu Oct 16 1997 07:21 - ID#350142)
By Larry Wee


15 Oct 1997

Credit risk worries continue to
Meanwhile, in Thailand, details of the rescue package
revealed yesterday will be scrutinised before attention
turns to the Malaysian Budget on Friday, and then to the
pronouncements of the IMF experts thereafter on
Indonesia. Initial reaction on the Thai front hasn't been
reassuring, from the way the baht was falling offshore
last night.

* * *

George Cole
(Thu Oct 16 1997 07:38 - ID#42953)
market action
Europe weak this morning as is non-Japan Asia. Dollar soft. Gold doing better -- Joberg strong.

Tracking these markets closely I have noticed that most of them move in the same direction as the dollar with the notable exception of Japan. This is the only major market that tends to move up when the dollar tanks and visa versa. Do not be surprised if this market takes off when ours hits the skids. Nikkei 25,000 and Dow 6000 by next summer? Could happen.

I frankly have no idea where gold bullion will be trading on October 23 or any other particular day for that matter. But the trend is gradually changing and the smart players will be buying the gold stocks on weakness.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 07:41 - ID#26793)
You guys that do charts might want to look at Ashanti Gold ( ASL ) I do not own any. Should I buy some?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 07:42 - ID#428142)
By Larry Wee


15 Oct 1997

Credit risk worries continue to
Meanwhile, in Thailand, details of the rescue package
revealed yesterday will be scrutinised before attention
turns to the Malaysian Budget on Friday, and then to the
pronouncements of the IMF experts thereafter on
Indonesia. Initial reaction on the Thai front hasn't been
reassuring, from the way the baht was falling offshore
last night.

* * *

(Thu Oct 16 1997 07:49 - ID#57232)
@Home - waking up on a full moon
Aurator: Enjoy your posts as always -- so you noticed the multiple personaltiy phenomenon and the full moon connction. I know some people at the local police station, as well as the med center, and the effect is well known. No one knows why -- but certain types of individuals act strangely near the day of the full moon. Perhaps our astrology expert Mike Sheller can shed some light on this. ( no pun intended )
Any opinion on my challenge to ANOTHER - to explain how 1/3 of all gold sale go for the purchase of oil? I came up with depletion of all IMF country gold assets in three years. Can't believe all the Central Banks sold their gold worldwide! My math ok?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 07:56 - ID#57232)
@Home: gold rally after the last gasp of the gold bear?
To all: If RJ is right about CB sales of gold, this will be interesting for several reasons: 1 ) Because I think the gold bear will be minimal this time, and 2 ) any further drop in gold will be very hard on some unhedged gold mining firms.
I for one will be buying, once I see the bottom . Probably won't buy with both feet under the German Central bank sells gold, or the rally is clear for all to see. I won't forget to keep one eye on the stock market -- dont want to lose all those hard earned gold stock gains in a market crash! Take care everyone -- Jin, especially!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 08:02 - ID#26793)

(Thu Oct 16 1997 08:05 - ID#391142)
@thanks all
Spend my time lurking here for ideas, and use my mouse to easily skip over posted trash. Thanks for the many great posts.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 08:07 - ID#26793)
A Talking Head from Trim Tabs ( see my 8:02 post ) was on CNBC late yesterday. He was very bearish over this news. He mentioned that mutual funds cash reserves were in a poor position to handle redemptions and stocks would have to be sold to handle a downturn. He also talked about the drain the Chinese Telephone offering, due out today, would have on the rest of the market.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 08:12 - ID#26793)

George Cole
(Thu Oct 16 1997 08:14 - ID#42953)
CB selling
RJ: I take you at your word that a European CB has recently sold 200 tons of gold. But what the market reaction will be when this sale is announced is anyone's guess. Past is not necessarily prologue.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 08:15 - ID#26793)
I remember those canny folks at Nippon Telephone who went public in 1989 just days before the Nikkei top. Deja Vu with China Telecom?

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 16 1997 08:31 - ID#347447)
Moon Madness
JTF: Your "pun" is really close to the point re Moon Madness. I will speak metaphorically, but symbolically as far as energy flows in the universe are concerned. Look at it this way - EVERYTHING in the manifested universe ( what can be apprehended by the physical senses ) is a reflection of unseen and invisible patterns. The light of the Sun is a concretized ( relatively speaking ) reflection of some of the invisible powerful forces of life and reality that are more potent and permanent than anything on this earth. These forces cyclically ebb and flow, like everything in nature,which reflects them. Sunlight is actually focussed starlight. The sun is a focus for energy flows from the stars. This energy is projected from the surrounding sphere of the heavens to the point in space we call the Sun. Then that energy is circulated to the earth, and other planets as well. There would be no" life" as we know it in nature without it. The Moon is a filter and MODULATOR of that energy. In its various phases, it cyclically builds up and tears down the AMOUNT of ADDITIONAL, refining energy day to day that the earth receives. It keeps cycles adjusted, etc. As the Moon waxes fuller, it returns to the earth by reflection ( an analogy ) more and more of an energy DIVIDEND ( so to speak ) . At the Full Moon, humanity is getting about as much as it can deal with. It's like getting an extra dose of Sunlight AT NIGHT! Ever notice how we get rambunctious and indulgent when we are full of energy. We always go a little too far, drink too much, play too much, work too much, etc. When the energy is high we are playful, or excitable, or lusty. When the energy is drained, we are repentant and become conservative again. Well, at the Full Moon, whatever our natures are at the time, that extra energy sort of pushes us a bit over the edge. Stable personalities can handle this. People who have a reasonable amount of intelligence and discipline can have fun without getting crazy about it. But people with disturbed psyche's are impelled to uncontrollably express themselves under the push of that additional energy. This comes from lives ( often many ) of indulgence and unwillingness to practice self-control. The problem ranges from mild troublemaking to severe, and unfortunate mental breakdown ( as is occasionally seen at Kitco ) . IMVVHO.

Doug Schott
(Thu Oct 16 1997 08:36 - ID#215196)

Regarding the effect of CB gold sales...

Do we not normally assume that "all the news is in the price"? Meaning that collectively everything that is knowable has already been discounted in the current price of a stock or commodity.

If so, why does an announcement of previous CB gold sales weigh so heavily on the market? Once Australia, for example, has sold 86% of its gold reserves, that gold is no longer hanging over the market for future sale by the Aussie. So why isn't this a positive thing, not negative?

Furthermore, CB gold sales are obviously going to people who want the stuff and would likely hold onto it for awhile. Does this not reduce the supply available?

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 16 1997 08:39 - ID#347447)
Avanti Ashanti
DONALD: ASL has just gone from 9 to 12. I don't have a long-term chart for it, but its strong rise off the floor recently indicates it may be a leader in the unfolding rally. If gold prices are to continue higher from here, then Ashanti seems to be discounting a leadership role of some kind. Either than or this is a powerful short-coverning rally in the stock, something having to do with its own internal corporate situation.. Sorry I can't say more. If you get me the DATE ( and possibly Place - tho not totally necessary ) of incorporation, I'll look at it's 'scope. If you find it, email me at

(Thu Oct 16 1997 08:39 - ID#339320)
What 200 tons?

Is the 200 ton sale over 2 months significant??
Remember what ANOTHER said about the immediate turn that is about to happen in the gold markets parameters .....that now the CBs MUST keep selling to keep the price at bay, lest the REAL supply of gold be exposed. If the dont sell now, the extreme shortage of physical will immediately force the price up. You can bet that even under this scenario, they will try to get all the mileage they can in regards to publicity of each and every more than ever. Anyhow, 200 tons compared to LMBA volume over the same time frame isnt that much. Smells like propaganda.....especially if it is true.

If they sell, AU goes up.
If they dont sell, price goes up EVEN FASTER.
Like all things that get the end they are damned if the do, and damned if they dont.

CBs.......keep on selling...........give us your best shot.

The REAL gold market is highly exclusive, and we here at Kitco are largely in the dark as to the real events that manipulate the price of this all-important, omnipotent substance. If we are to encourage the participation of persons who are tuned in ( or even semi-tuned in )
to what is really happening behind and between the lines, commentaries posted by these persons should not be followed by the insults that have been the norm......ANOTHER offered much more than he could obtain from Kitco, and would not blame him if he chose not to post any further. I guess THERE inlies the major fault in the internet discussion groups, the anonymity that allows the knuckleheads forum for their antics.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 08:40 - ID#30116)
@Bogus Numbers?????
O.K. The CPI numbers came as expected. Or did they??? Core rate was +0.2% excluding food and energy +0.2%. Now for the rest of the story...

For the month of September:

Energy costs +1.3%
Gasoline costs +1.8%
Nat. Gas +2.2%
Electricty +0.5%
Airline Fares +2.2%

Jeeez... I don't use any of these! How about you?
Oh, jobless claims came a little under the expected 307,000. It was 306,000.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 08:42 - ID#386276)
If what RJ says is true and gold falls off just a little, then we can all rejoice!
If it drops like it did, when Oz sold us short, we'll just sit back and wait.
I think this bit of info when it becomes public, will be the best indicator going.
I am privileged to know of the trigger before its pulled. Thanks RJ, I'm waiting.

Anyone interested in MS Explorer4 & attachments

(Thu Oct 16 1997 08:47 - ID#286199)
I was wrong yesterday when I predicted the CPI would be higher than expected.... OR the government is faking the numbers again. At any rate, the stocks are off to the races again, with bonds tagging along.

Mike Sheller: What's your take on SSC now?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 09:23 - ID#403267)
@Carland y2katms
I have played an ATM stock, symbol ATMS ( naturally ) , that has recently upgraded its machines. One of its recent new products is Y2k compliant the older one requires a fix to be. For news type in ATMS on Yahoo stock quotes and look at news or any other quote service if you have a better one. Sorry, I don't have time to post the info, I have much mischief to do in the markets today!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 09:33 - ID#403267)
Will check out Richmont and Aurizon. Pegasus is a very small holding for me its just that if I had bought at 4 3/8 and averaged my position I could be even and into something more interesting with those funds. However it is not enough to worry about so I will keep whipping the old plowhorse till it falls in the traces or limps to the races: ) Now I gotta go, BBL

(Thu Oct 16 1997 09:44 - ID#386276)
Westergaard Year 2000 Y2K Tip of the Week
What to do?

George Cole
(Thu Oct 16 1997 09:47 - ID#42953)
CB sale
Nick: My hunch is that this 200 ton sale will be the catalyst that turns the yellow around when announced. If we drop sharply, its the final washout. If we don't drop much, the yellow will start heading skywards in very short order. If Another knows what he is talking about ( and I think he does ) , the selloff should be rather modest. We shall see.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 10:07 - ID#386276)
George have a look at
GCZ7 It is worth having a look at the chart on all the different time scales
with candle and volume on. This chart is looking bullish on all accounts T/A wise.
We had a lovely strong rise when US opened tonight, same yesterday.
May it please continue.
Good buying pressure!!!!!
Of course this might only be short term.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 10:10 - ID#224162)
@this isn't a rumour
psst!! I just saw on an internet disscussion group that an european central bank has sold 200 tons of gold. I heard it from a guy who heard it from one from his european "contact." The offical announcemnt should be made shortly. The bank was either Germany or France. I know you are getting this info 3rd hand ( at least ) but this is still not a rumour.

Go short gold!!!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 10:10 - ID#333131)
@thanks Roebear
On y2k and atm's and other "embedded" systems. see

(Thu Oct 16 1997 10:12 - ID#333131)
@previous posted site on y2k

(Thu Oct 16 1997 10:18 - ID#224149)
Eating Crow!Boy does this taste bad! I kept my word.Happy Trails.

George Cole
(Thu Oct 16 1997 10:24 - ID#42953)
Nick: The ability of the Nikkei to hold above 17,000 in the face of the persistent pressure on other Asian markets is encouraging as is the strength of the Japanese yen.

The Japanese bear is seven years old while the other Asian bears still are very young. Just like our bull has discounted every conceivable piece of good news, so has their bear discounted virtually all the bad news real and imagined. As with gold a final washout remains possible. But the medium and longer-term risk/reward ratio is extremely good, and this is especially true for the small caps.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 10:26 - ID#386276)
Gold up at
Golden opportunity. There is a lot to be said for the 328 - 330 area of December gold. For two months, attacks on that area from below have either repelled or propelled prices. A minor pattern that spanned Friday - Tuesday created a 327 target, and that level was exceeded in a gap open lower on Wednesday. If it were prices intent to continue lower, then it would seem that the morning weakness was just the opportunity to do so. Instead, that action marked the session low, and prices firmed into the close -- above 328. Though there is still potential to the 325 level, almost any strength from here could mark a bottom for a return to 339, and affirmation of a move to 350.

And because it's so quiet AVID chatter:

this is bloombergs view on the CPI ....U.S. September Consumer Prices Seen Rising 0.3% Prices U.S. consumers pay for goods and services probably increased in September at the fastest pace in seven months, analysts said, though the overall inflation outlook remains positive. The consumer price index, or CPI, probably climbed 0.3 percent last month, according to the average of 28 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey as of Oct. 14. That would be the largest increase since a 0.3 percent rise in February. The less volatile CPI core rate, which excludes food and energy costs, also probably increased 0.3 percent in September, according to the survey.

France CAC 40 ^FCHI 5:45AM 2967.03 -25.13 -0.84%
Germany DAX ^GDAX 5:45AM 4121.53 -72.16 -1.72%
Taiwan Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 12:03AM 7997.81 -264.59 -3.20%
Singapore Straits Times ^SS1 5:01AM 1804.24 -50.79 -2.74%
South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 2:42AM 579.25 -25.49 -4.22%
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 2:03AM 17707.49 +376.12 +2.17%

I have no idea of the etymology of 'bull' and 'bear', although I am guilty of using those terms without forethought. For example I am quite 'bullish' on the market in general until about 2010 when net outflows in MF's reduce the available capital. However, over the next few years I am 'bearish' due to the fact that we have come too far too fast the past few years for any reasonable chance of sustainabilty, thus I expect a rather deep retracement of the current primary trend. So what am I, a 'bull' or a 'bear'?

OK, i expect a SUBSTANTIAL retrace to start next week and not a one or two day affair but the multi-week variety.

Agree exactly, the only question is do we get new highs in these three days....I don't think so.

a crash..kewl ;~ )

cnbc did a bit on origin of bull and bear. term bullish because a bull attacks by up swope of horns. bear attacks by down stroke of paws.

I expect by Friday afternoon that all investors will see that there is nothing to worry about and perfection exists in the market forever and ever amen.

October: "a bear killer".........october's reputation as a bear killer comes largely because it has experienced so many violent confrontations with the enraged beast. actually , only the bear markets of 1957,1960 and 1966 were official victims of the october reputation. but conditions of extreme panic have often been dramatically reversed or moderated during the period, as in 1937,1946,and 1974. the market low in that last year ( 1974 ) came in october, though a pair of sullen performers in the dow-30 dragged that index to a new low in december of 1974. in 1987? the bear may have been killed but it was a frightfull victory. in 1914 when the NYSE was closed from august-november, the actual low came in october, so that remains an unofficial tally for the bear-killer reputation. another nasty october encounter came with the cuban missle crisis in 1962 and the twin "october-massacres" of 1978-79. despite the months reputation, the secular adv/dec ratio of 53 to 47 isnt impressive. oct.29th and 1987 are paired as frightening bear legends, but both sept.1931 and march 1938 caused more djia damage. annual hi/lows, highs:5 since 1950:3. lows 6 since 1950:4best and worst performances gains= 1982+10.7,1974+9.5 and 1931+9.1%. losses= 1987-23.2, 1929-20.3 and 1907-14.8% yearly record 53 advances 47 declines, major tops and bottoms. bull markets: ( 0 ) : no bull market has ended in october. bear markets: ( 4 ) oct.22 1957 high-volume end to sputnik I shock. oct 24th 1960, mini-bear discounted kennedy victory. oct6,1966 another mini-bear finished after 9 months and oct 19th 1987. end of a classic panic. dow down 508 points w/nyse volume of 604million shares. all data is through 1990.

" bull markets: ( 0 ) : no bull market has ended in october. "

(Thu Oct 16 1997 10:28 - ID#57232)
@Work -- full moon effect is there!
Mike Sheller, all: Mike I appreciateed your post on full moon effect. I am convinced there is a real physical phenomenon in this. My take is there is a currently unknown subtle particle flux of some kind "illuminating" us. It is not sunlight per se, but something else - like a neutrino or muon flux. This is generated by the sun and other star-like bodies in the universe. When the moon gets between us and the sun ( new moon ) or bathes us in the indirect radiation from the sun ( full moon ) that unknown radiation flux is altered -- and we respond in ways that we still don't understand. Fish, mussels, crabs and clams also respond in a similar manner, even thousands of miles away from the beach, even if the lunar phase in question is on the other side of the earth.
Another interesting point of this model ( not mine, but collected from writings of several other physicists - models not intended to explain Astrolgy ) is that it explains how other planets such as Jupiter ( a failed star ) might affect us. The entire universe bathes us in this mysterious particle ( energy ) flux - especially the galactic center, because that is where there is a major concentration of stellar matter.
This non-isotropic flux ( nonuniform ) bathes us all the time, and the "shadows" of the different planets modulate this flux, adding and subracting in different ways, depending on their individual properties.
For those of you who do not believe what I say, I only ask you to think about your own experiences near a full moon or new moon. Ask a fisherman ( even freshwater ) if the phase of the moon is important if you want to catch fish! You will get some interesting answers!
I know the above is dissatisfying -- it is to me! This is truly at the fringe of physics, and people like Mike Sheller understand what is happening better than the physicists! The astrologers have been working with this phenomenon for years. I think the time is coming for a major scientific advance in this field - which will benefit all humankind. Standardization of Astrological methods will help. With all of the powerful analytical tools now at our hands, we will be able to get at the essence of Astrology, when our ancestors could only guess.
When time allows I will report on some of the experimental data which is beginning to shake the Physics establishment to its roots! Just like with the mistaken belief that gold is not an important currency will take years to overcome in the minds of many, so will this topic.
Exciting times -- wish Einstein was alive to see the the stirrings of the awakening!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 10:34 - ID#386276)
Economic statistics briefing room:

Good reading.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 10:37 - ID#57232)
pssst! : Pretty good rumor! Funny how rumors and the real thing often have the same effect! What I get a kick out of is that the gold market seems not to react very much during the actual gold sale, but only near or after the official annoucement! Really puzzling that the physcial act of gold selling has less effect on the gold market that the later statement of the sale! Says something about the uniqueness of the gold market. If an announcement of a 200 ton sale of gold by France has no or minimal effect, our gold bear market is effectively over! Personnally, I am hoping for a $10-$20 drop in gold bullion price. Perfect opportunity for the bulls! I doubt it though.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 10:50 - ID#386276)
JTF You can ask me I know all about fishing and the moon.
I spent 15 years at sea, the last ten years as a skipper of a 200 ton prawn trawler up in the Gulf of Carpentaria, 500m NW of Cairns.
The last 2 1/2 years up there I caught just under 300 tons of prawns ( shrimp ) . We had some great BBQ's.
All of our fishing was done in relation to the moon and it's quarters - positives and negatives - by that I mean the days preceeding the phases and after .
We used to go to sea for 4 months at a time, meeting barges at sea to take fuel and stores off and unloading product to.
I could map out where I would fish a month forwards just by using the moon phases.
The thrill of catching 10 ton of prawns in a few hours is something I'll never forget, almost like putting 10k down on you favourite gold share and watching it take off to the moon.
Wish I was still there but I busted my back and took to watching the charts instead.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 11:05 - ID#224149)
Mike Sheller-With all the positive planetary factors over the last week for Gold with no great movement to the upside I would assume We are heading Down over the next few months.George Coles 286 level is probably close.I certainly wont make anymore "eat crow" statements as the taste is not to my likeing.Happy Trails.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 11:18 - ID#25645)
Russia, Oil and the Mideast - what's happening?

KAZAKHSTAN. Meeting in Beijing on 4 October with Kazakh Defense
Minister Mukhtar Altynbaev, Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian
said strengthening cooperation between the two countries' armed
forces, particularly along their common frontier, is "of great
significance," ITAR-TASS reported. Kazakhstan borders on China's
unstable Xinjiang Province. Altynbaev also met with Premier Li Peng,
who described the petroleum and gas accord signed on 24 September
as marking a "new stage" in bilateral relations.


by Paul Goble

Russian involvement in the French-led consortium for the
development of gas deposits in Iran, which the U.S. has sought to
isolate economically and politically, has given Moscow three
important geopolitical victories.
First, it has allowed Russia to side openly with the West
Europeans against the United States, thereby increasing Russian
influence over the former with apparently little cost to Russian
cooperation with the latter. Even though many West European
countries have withdrawn their ambassadors from Tehran, virtually
all of them believe that isolating Iran, as the Americans urge, will not
contribute to political change there. In addition, the Europeans
almost universally feel that Washington's threats of imposing
sanctions on non-U.S. firms investing in Iran is a most unfortunate
form of U.S. overreach.
Second, Russian involvement has increased Moscow's influence
in Iran and thus given Moscow expanded opportunities to influence
when or even whether oil and gas can flow from Central Asia and the
Transcaucasus to the West. Such Russian leverage in Tehran on the
possible flow of petroleum will quickly translate into immediate
Russian political leverage in the capitals of the Transcaucasus and
Central Asia. Gazprom, the Russian partner in this latest project, is
unlikely to be able to make significant investments in Iran. But its
presence in the consortium, combined with Russian supplies of
nuclear materials and weapons systems to Tehran, will give it a
major voice.
Third, Moscow's participation has increased its influence in
many countries of the Middle East both because Russia has proved
willing to cooperate with an Islamic state at odds with the West and
because the Russian government has taken this step over vocal U.S.
Russian Foreign Minister Yevgenii Primakov, who has long had
close ties to anti-U.S. governments in the Middle East, is clearly
playing an old Moscow card: siding with radical Muslim regimes and
seeking to portray the U.S. as too closely tied to Israel.
Until now, most observers in the West have downplayed
Moscow's role either because Washington has focused its criticism on
France or because they believe that Russian involvement in Iran is
the product of forces President Boris Yeltsin does not control. But in
an interview carried by Russian and French television on 1 October,
Yeltsin demonstrated that Russian involvement reflects a clearly
articulated policy and that Moscow may be the big winner in this
project, even if it does not reap the largest financial rewards.
Discussing this latest international investment project in Iran
and U.S. opposition to it, Yeltsin said "Thank God, Russia, France, and
Iran are independent, freedom-loving states." He added that
interference by any state is not to be tolerated. Moreover, the
Russian leader went on to say that Moscow's cooperation with Paris
represented yet "another instance of the coincidence of views"
between the two countries.
At the very least, this statement suggests Moscow is trying to
exploit a situation created by U.S. efforts to isolate Iran because of
Tehran's sponsorship of terrorism and by rising opposition to
Washington's policy in Western Europe and the Middle East.
But Yeltsin's remarks may point to an even more important
shift in Moscow's policies. They suggest that Yeltsin and his
government have decided that, despite weaknesses at home, they
can now begin to recoup some of their past influence abroad. And
Yeltsin's words suggest that Russia will once again try to regain that
influence by exploiting or exacerbating tensions between the United
States, its allies, and the countries of the Middle East.
Most of the discussion of the French-led consortium in Iran has
focused on either the profits the deal will bring to Paris or the
political breakout it may help Tehran to make. But the gains Russia
seems set to make as a result are likely to be far larger than any of
those being calculated in either the French or Iranian capital, let
alone anywhere else.
From RFE/RL, Inc.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 11:20 - ID#365216)
To RJ re: Nick Vecchio
RJ, what can you tell me about using Nick Vecchio as my broker?
Is he a straight shooter? THanks.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 11:25 - ID#365216)
Waco video ordering info
Please see
for info and ordering instructions for the documentary on waco
titled: "Waco-the Rules of Engagement". It is an eye-opener I'm

(Thu Oct 16 1997 11:27 - ID#386276)
In layman's terms, Greenspan was referring to the unfolding Asian currency crisis--which he specifically avoided mentioning by name--a crisis that threatens to spread across the Pacific to around the world Quotes
Plus more on gold.

Dow has just failed on forth rally to 8112 now down and falling

(Thu Oct 16 1997 11:30 - ID#386276)
IATV off to the moon - Web TV not gold

(Thu Oct 16 1997 12:06 - ID#57232)
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Great post on fishing and the moon! I miss sailing in the ocean -- did some day sailing as crew on a 37foot yawl off the coast of Southern California -- close encounter ( 20 feet ) with a whale ( a lone male grey I think ) much bigger than the boat -- fortunately we then went opposite directions. Using a depth indicator and a chart to enter unknown waters after dark ( plus RDF ) . Another time a huge nearly 1000 foot wavelength roller obscured the entire coast line when we were over 1 mile out to sea. The entering the blue "stream" of the gulf stream, or a barracuda on the line jumping in the sun, or the brilliance of the dolphin ( fish ) freshly caught, or the porpoises ( the mammal -sp? ) herding in fish into the breakers are a sight to see. The porpoises catching the bow wave of a large motor boat. A ten foor ray breaking onto the air. Entering rough seas through the Barnegate inlet ( more fun to watch others at the local viewing spot ) . Watching the sails begin to tear as you try to reach safe harbor before a squall line. Watching the launch of a large vessel while eating lunch. Waiting for ever for the drawbridge to open while in a motorless sailboat. Watching the spring tide come within a few feet from your front door, or the aftermath of Hurricane Hugo. A desk type job sure does have its disadvantages, even if the salary is better.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 12:13 - ID#386276)
JTF Stop Stop Stop - your'e making me seasick haven't you noticed dow down gold up.
have a read of some of these and get some jam!

Money for jam Newcrest mining
On the local front, Newcrest Mining dominated the action yesterday, jumping 14, or more than 5 per cent, to $2.89 after announcing that it made an extra $9.7 million on the early sale of its 11.81 per cent stake in Normandy Mining, due to closing out a gold-equity swap with the ANZ Bank.
Fellow gold-miner Normandy Mining topped turnover with 9.2 million shares traded, with the stock falling 1 to $1.85.

Half could fail Year 2000 test
In the lead up the year 2000, 22 per cent of a company's information system budget will go to year 2000 problem-solving, according to Gartner Group representative.

Market won't let ministers forget woes
While South-East Asia's economic ministers met to review ambitious integration plans, the Malaysian stock market provided a grim reminder of the most pressing regional challenge.

Asian meltdown a matter of policy: Greenspan
Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has heard all the arguments about the impact of foreign currency traders on Asian currency crises -- and he isn't having a bar of them.

Thailand Observed
There is a deep lack of trust in the Thai Prime Minister's ability to steer the country out of its economic turmoil,

Korean stockmarket dive continues
The Korean bourse took another battering yesterday as analysts predicted prices would continue to fall, despite government attempts to revive investor confidence.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 12:28 - ID#57232)
AJT: I can't give you information about China, but there is a clear anti-American shift in Russian politics. The influence of the US in the Middle East is overwhelming right now, with Iran being a destabilizing force. Iran's recent more calculated foreign policy ( unlike Libya ) makes them more suitable as allies to Russia. Iran already has two former Russian submarines, though I do not have a clue what they are to be used for ( missles? ) What puzzles me in these political maneuvers, how any Moslem state would wish to cooperate with Russia, except to get nuclear reactors or nuclear expertise. Whatever the motives of both sides, encouraging Iran's nuclear capability with a relatively weak Iraq is very bad news. Only a few more weeks and likelihood of a military confrontation in the Middle East will diminish -- until spring weather. Hopefully there are some experts on these matters that can make more of this than I.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 12:33 - ID#57232)
Nick ( @Aussie ) : What am I missing? Silver is falling through the floor. An I looking at it upside down? ( other side of world ) . Gold looks flat for the moment.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 12:39 - ID#335190)
Oil & War & thousands dead @ God-forsaken Africa ( France & USofA)
October 16, 1997
World could have averted Congo war -analysts

LONDON, Oct 16 ( Reuters ) - The world could have averted a civil war that has devastated the Congo Republic, but the United States did not want to pay and France did not want to intervene, diplomats and analysts said on Thursday.
The fighting in the oil-producing former French colony was an example of how outside powers have decided, largely for lack of interest, to leave Africa to solve its own problems, whatever the loss of life, they said.

Sassou's militia and its Angolan allies captured the key oil city of Pointe Noire on Wednesday after winning the battle for the wrecked capital Brazzaville. Thousands of people, mostly civilians, are believed to have died in the fighting.

The United States never formally rejected the plan but set conditions which the diplomats said seemed designed to ensure it would never get off the ground.

This is a subject of bitter dispute between the Republican-dominated Congress, which wants to slash Washington's contribution, and the rest of the international community. "In that context, it was completely unrealistic to expect the Clinton administration to approve yet another peacekeeping operation in a God-forsaken corner of Africa where there wasn't even a peace to keep," said one Western diplomat.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 12:47 - ID#194311)
Tide Turned?
Donald - re: net outflows in long has it been since this last happened?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 12:48 - ID#335190)
Wages @ USofA
October 16, 1997
September real earnings down 0.3 pct

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. workers' average weekly earnings, after adjusting for inflation and seasonal factors, fell by 0.3 percent in September, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The decrease followed a revised 0.9 percent rise in August real average weekly earnings. Previously, the department reported that August real earnings rose 0.8 percent.

The September drop reflected a 0.3 percent decrease in average weekly hours. The Labor Department said average weekly earnings were little changed, by less than 0.05 percent.

Average hourly earnings saw a 0.3 percent increase in September, while the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers was up 0.3 percent, the Labor Department said.

In constant 1982 dollars, weekly earnings for non-supervisory private workers outside the farm sector averaged a seasonally adjusted $260.70 in September, compared with $261.41 in August and $258.46 in September 1996.

In current dollars, weekly earnings averaged a seasonally adjusted $425.73 in September, compared with $425.58 in August and $413.28 in September last year, it said.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 16 1997 12:52 - ID#347447)
JTF: your 10:28 was a superlative post. Sciene is about to discover the "astral" layer of radiant solid matter that interpenetrates the whole shootin match down here. This is what I was talking about re "interpenetrating globes, or layers of matter in different states. e-me some day. This could get too tiresome for our brothers & sisters at Kitco. POORBOYS: Sorry to disagree, since we're usually on same wavelength, but I see NO positive astrological factors for gold at the moment. As I have stated several times, my proprietary gold indicator, NYSE Venus ( 5 degrees Taurus ) is being squared viciously as we speak from Uranus in Aquarius. Until this square breaks up ( turn of winter ) gold will be under pressure and struggling to keep its head up. But the recent Head & shoulders patterns in significant gold stocks is being tested now. If the breakout holds,

(Thu Oct 16 1997 12:54 - ID#57232)
@Work re:usacom.daily - daily gold news
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Thanks for getting back in the real world! ( All you need to say is: "gold up" ) . USA GOLD's web site looks excellent to my relatively inexperienced eyes. This site should work better for all ( I hope:

If the above doesn't work, try typing in the following:


Just put the h at the *.


Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:03 - ID#347447)
interrupted by a phone call
POORBOYS: this continued from my last post which went out unfinished will then be out of the woods and the bottom in. A final pass from Uranus in the late Fall, early Winter will take that burden off gold - a Burden that has been there astrologically ALL YEAR. A burden that was forseen years ago by any astrologer who understands why NYSE Venus is THE gold degree.
PS - I have the confidence of another opinion confirmation about the technicals in place now for gold shares from the work of Reify, whose technical studies are nowhere near as sloppy as mine. I really think the bottom is in, and the next move up for gold should begin in a few days. ( caw, caw...? )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:08 - ID#57232)
Nick ( @Aussie ) - Sorry - that last post was supposed to say: "Thanks for getting me back in the real world". USA gold's comment today has some interesting observations about A Greenspan, namely the the US bond market is to be protected at all costs. USA gold then went to say that the "protecting the stock market was a lower priority" I would interpret this is maintenance of currency ( dollar ) stability overrides even keeping the stock market stable. Pretty insightful stuff, I think, with my inexperieced eyes. If the dollar heads south, the stock market will follow anyway. According to USAgold, AG does not think the Fed has the resources to bail out all of the asian markets. That's probably true, especially if mainland China really has hundreds of billions of bad loans.
I don't know anything about USAGOLD, but they do look pretty sharp. Opinions from the gold guru's? George Cole, others?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:08 - ID#280242)
to Carl - your 7:14
I work with ATM's ( as part of my job ) . I do not forsee any major problems with the ATM's themselves with the y2k problem. You are partly right about them being "slaves" - they are fairly intelligent themselves, but not about dates, and other information regarding the actual transaction - the main computer handles that. They actually report back to the main computer what keys were pressed to make any particular transaction, and the computer talking to them deciphers what transaction was requested. The computer ralking to them also "downloads" to the ATM all the screen contents, etc. that you see as a customer. We did have a minor problem in testing this last year - we tried some cards with an expiry date of 00, and had some problems. The problems were fixed within a day. ( So much for that fix being "humongous" ) . When the actual date becomes 00 ( 2000 ) we may see some more problems, and probably some more severe problems - may take up to a week to fix in our case ( each system *is* somewhat different ) . We do, of course, intend to test before then! : ) .. BTW - that "expert test" posted a few days ago - reasonable test, but a little too easy! : ) I personally think y2k problems will be the most severe where people least expect to see them, and least severe where people are most scared of them. Expect the unexpected! I also feel that the y2k problem will exist, will cause problems, but will be nowhere as big a problem as the extreme forecasts "out there". My 2 cents ( CDN ) worth....

(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:09 - ID#158399)
crash on monday
I hereby give notice that the market will crash on Monday
20 Oct in memory of the 19 Oct 87 crash. remember this.
The tp is aligned with ur anus is how I know.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:09 - ID#194225)
@Spanish quiz - matching
A. El Toro*

B. El Nino

C. El Reno

1. Could be helping the president

2. Powerful and in the news every day

3. In a year will be just a memory

Answers: A - 1,2,3 B - 1,2,3 C - 1,2,3

* Means "bull" in Spanish

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:10 - ID#347447)
juggling here
POORBOYS: My point re gold was that considering that the Uranus square is right on in full force now, as it was in the Spring, gold is really doing quite well. If there is to be a lower low, it will come end of November, early December or so. I suspect not, but that is when the square registers exact again, on the way OUT. These phenomena are sometimes spent by the final passover ( nothing religious implied ) . If that is to be a final low , then RJ is right on the money. If not, then we are all in the money. The base that is being confirmed at these levels will be the springboard for gold in the thousands of dollars early in the next century. Up or down from here, the byword is GET REAL ( all together now... ) GET GOLD.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:27 - ID#333131)
symbol, Thanks for the info re ATM's

(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:29 - ID#341132)
I love everyone at Kitco, and I thank RJ
for his words of encouragement.

God Bless us everyone

I am pleased by the performance of gold
today, and see it heading to $310 by 10/23/97.
The Dow seems to be on a path for 8300 on
or before that same date.

The kinder, more loving hep

(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:36 - ID#176315)
I would like to take this opportunity to apologize
to George S. Cole for always pointing out
the errors in his thinking. From now on, I will
simply refer to George S. Cole's predictions as
"spritefully guileless and almostly certainly
correct in an alternate universe unlike our own"

(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:38 - ID#26793)
The following has NOT BEEN CONFIRMED. CB sale of 200 tons was handled by Gold Field Mineral Services of London. Seller was Italy from its 1,900 tons of gold reserves. The sale was made some time ago and has not been officially announced.

How about that Wonder Years Marathon?
(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:41 - ID#353144)
tonight on Nick
Also, I would like to apologize to the
machine known as Vronsky for questioning
his need to constantly link us to outdated
articles on his site. The connection
between the rise in the white metals and
silver, for example, escaped me until today.
See Two Down, Two to Go at
before the statute of limitations on this
article runs out.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:46 - ID#251147)
It looks like the cental banks are selling silver today

(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:54 - ID#252132)
@ Testing The H&S's:
Looking at a weekly bar chart of the XAU, it appears that we are about to test the breakout point of the neckline of the head and shoulders formation. ( Left shoulder - April, l997; Head - July, l997; and right shoulder Sept, l997. That neckline looks to be around 103 more or less. Any other views would be welcomed.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 13:56 - ID#386276)
Gold holding up well considering the release of news of the 200 ton sale made recently. Due to the instantaneous transfer of data via the net all the world will be talking about this within the next 24hrs.
Last golden oportunity to buy cheap?
Lihir gold added another 6c today - very strong.
Someone bought 2.5m call warrants in Normandy today, probably Nick@C topping up his stockpile ( ;- ) ) ) ) )

That bad smell in the room probably doesn't even know what a chart looks like.
He hasn't even noticed that the Dow's under severe selling pressure, having just refused to go through 8112 for the fourth time, and looks like it has given up the ship and sinking. Down 100 in freefall!
Where as gold's chart looks strong and healthy ready to ignore bad news and plough on ahead. IMHO

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:00 - ID#57232)
@Work - must get back to it!
CMax: Saw your 8:39 post on ANOTHER and the 200 ton gold sale. I hope you didn't get the wrong idea from my challenge to ANOTHER about the gold sales to keep oil prices down. I am all in favor of his/her informative posts. I just want to understand and confirm the concepts from other sources. Would you invest your money just based on his/her posts?
Yes 200 tons are small potatoes as they say compared to what is apparently happening at the LBMA. However, what affects the markets in the "real world" out there is "Central Bank sales". Haven't you noticed that gold prices do not seem to change during the period of the actual Central Bank sale, but only when it is announced? I think the mere fact that a Central Bank does not want gold has a bigger impact on the gold price than anything else. Even Central bank sales are ussually much smaller than total world gold production. Just think what would happen to the gold market if either Germany or Switzerland sold even 50 tons! Heresy!
I don't think ANOTHER has been scared off - I hope not!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:01 - ID#251306)
If there has been an anouncement of the gold sale, I'll be interested in RJ's comments Vs. golds action

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:02 - ID#252132)
@ This Is A Test:
it's interesting how stories of CB sales, etc come out frequently at critical testing area of gold or the gold stocks. hmmmmm??

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:02 - ID#26793)
October 16, 1997
Hi, every once in awhile a new 'profit' appears on the Kitco gold chat ( They
usually say gold will EXPOLDE up and gold promply falls ) . This one is
interesting to me because s/he says much of the gold "Around the world it
is traded in huge volumes that never show up on bank statements, govt.
stats., or trading graph paper." I assume ( if this is true ) EW would still apply
if COMEX was similar to ( or a fractal of ) what a mystery bigger picture might
be. But What if it is not? --Jeff Fitzmyers
Reply from Bob Prechter

There is a lot of off-exchange volume, but there is not a problem with the graphs,
because no off-exchange seller will take below market nor buyer take above market
prices. If there were a better price on the exchange, they would take some or all of
the position there. --RP

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:07 - ID#26793)
Byron, Nick: When it gets to me it is old news. If it is true, then it was figured into pricing some time ago by the big players. My source is making an educated guess and plainly says so. that is the reason for large type NOT CONFIRMED.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:10 - ID#57232)
To all: Gold down several dollars. Response to gold sales, or attempt to keep dollar up? My guess -- downward pressure on gold until financial crisis in SE Asia, uncertainty in US markets, and last minute budget,etc. jockeying by future EMU countries ends.
The buying opportunities increase, the more gold gets pushed down! Just make sure you are on the right side of the market for now. Exciting times aren't they!
The turmoil of the end of a 1 1/2 year gold bear!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:10 - ID#386276)
GCZ7 intraday forming a little wedgie at the moment.
One would have to presume that it will break to the downside as news is absorbed.
A break up would raise a few eyebrows.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:12 - ID#26793)
Jkfgla: Talk about the CB confusion factor! CB's sell gold to raise funds to buy silver. Gold tanks, silver soars. Then CB's sell silver to buy back cheap gold. Silver tanks, gold soars. With profits at each end all the governments of the world will have balanced budgets by next Friday.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:16 - ID#252132)
@The Public Library
Donald: Yes,understand. I was just pointing to a general, longer term pattern which I believe applies not only to gold and gold shares but to other financial investment. Seems that the charts say "test me". "find out if the money is in strong hands" or "was that a real break-out", etc. : )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:19 - ID#269409)
@Sheller 08:31
Sheller I think everyone should be able to voice their opinion here, and I mean no personal attack, BUT, re your 0831, I can't let comments like that go unchallenged. Just for the record, the Sun's energy as distributed to the Earth comes from hydrogen and the atomic forces which create the fission process. They have NOTHING to do with the other stars, metaphorically, symbolically or in reality, with the exception of what went into the start creation process.

As to the "Lunar" effect on human lunacy, it's been quite well studied several times and every published study has shown that the full moon has NO EFFECT on measurable human behaviour, but that said effect is, as in so many other cases, a myth that continues to be propogated by the ignorant among us. The factors studied include such things as domestic violence incidents, drunk driving, sexual behaviour, hospital ER admissions, etc. NO LINK was found between such incidents and the full moon.

WHEN oh WHEN, will we stop living in the dark ages? Why is it that voices of reason will be vociferously attacked ( as I no doubt will for posting this ) , but any wild, unsubstantiated, Voodoo nonsense always goes unchallenged, even on an investment site?

I can only repeat, what has been said so many times before. Extraorinary claims, require extraordinary evidence in order to be believed. Astrology in ALL it's forms, has been so COMPLETELY discredited by every scientifically performed study ever done, and is so NONsensical even on it's basic premises, that it always amazes me that so many seemingly intelligent folks will still buy into it. A sad commentary on the state of our society, that Charlatans reign supreme while facts, knowledge, experimentation, and TRUE exploration of the Universe around us is virtually ignored.

I believe in the spiritual world, concepts beyond our limited human understanding, life out there, forces and knowledge way beyond the scope of what we perceive...HOW ever... such beliefs conform to the evidence of what we've discovered so far about life, energy, forces, and the universe.

If you have all kinds of factual evidence, all kinds of valid scientific FACT BASED studies that indicate ONE conclusion on something like say, "Full moon effect", of the ability of planets and stars millions or billions, or trillions of miles away to directly effect our lives, why Oh WHY would you then take the opposite position???

It may be boring, but I'll stick with science, and reason, and objective testing of ideas instead of fairy tales. The odds of finding "truth" are a lot better when we can test and challenge our beliefs and notions, instead of selling them to a gullible populace who desperately wishes to believe in nonsense.

Sheller, some of your predictions will be right and some will be wrong, but NONE of that will ever have anything to do with Uranus, constellations, or the full Moon. I don't buy it, and it's very difficult for me to believe that any thinking person ever would. However, I'm sure you'll always have a rapt audience. P.T. Barnum was an intelligent man.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:28 - ID#26793)
Kiwi: There were probably net outflows in July/August but I didn't keep a record of it. Mabye someone else can answer.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:33 - ID#224149)
Mike Sheller-In this last period you had Mercury, Venus,Mars,Saturn,Pluto in trine with the sign Leo and semisextile Uranus which should have given Gold some positive force up temporally which has happened in my charts historically but the Uranus force of a slow moving planet to that Taurus degree which you speak of is just too much for some of the faster moving planets to handle.The rest of your scenario is probably correct.I have been bearish on Gold all year and continue to be but was looking for a quick pop up.I am still short Gold from 338.P.S.The Pluto "underworld effect" now in Sagittarius has more effect on the price of Gold than anyone can imagine also this Venus,Mars conjunction is melting Silver down.Happy Trails

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:33 - ID#386276)
LBG did you notice the full moon last night.
Have a look at the dow now and ready these comments from experienced SPOO day traders.
They aren't even game to step in front of it.
They are awestruck!!!

another dog leg down...
there are no rules, human nature and emoti0on have taken over this beast...
either the bulls step up to the plate here or it's toast. imo.
This could be one of those days that we look back to a month from now and say wow what a buying opportunity if you had the bal-- to buy it OR we break all this support and sammy's puts make a thousand %.
serious ticking going on...
ok BEARS...TAKE IT TO EM....don't leave 1 standing BULLS... that is...
tick tick tick tick tick tick BOOM!
hey gang: that CNBC special tonite on 1987...they mite have to change the title to CRASH OF 97 huh?
another dog leg DOWN...
Wow 1 hour and 40 mins to go and there is no relief in site. Wouldn't it be ironic if we started tanking today on CNBC's tribute to the crash of '87. The ultimate bull station instilling fear in this technical downdraft.
How is gold doing these days, anyone?
Bonds slipping and techs are getting killed.
the only way i d miss that CNBC special tonite is if i had to give up my bachelor button : )
awww another dog leg DOWN...
But seriously folks, any staunch bulls out there planning on buying this as it falls over the next week??
all I can say is WOW!
I suppose they're trying to convince me that the Crash of 87 is on again while the market is at alltime highs. Boohoo, long at 69.
the last of the faithfull diehard bulls take the final desperate stab to support
looks like right in his the BEGINNING OF THE CRASH OF 97..check it out!
the bubbles are growing thinner on the tank me thinks...
We've got their ships they have our bonds!!!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:40 - ID#269409)
Gold, CB sales and the EU
Barring unforeseen catastrophes in financial markets, Mideast, etc. the key to gold prices over the next three years will be largely related to what happens with the EU and the Euro. It's obvious to all that there is a plan amonsgt the EU nations to stabilize their currency's and reduce their debt ratios relative the the rest of the consortium.

Nothing too sinister there, but what IS perhaps sinister, is that when you study the EU carefully, and their plans, they do intend to essentially bury the U.S. and Asian trading blocks by building a new one that will eclipse ( no pun intended Puetz ) , eclispe the strength of the U.S. trade status as well as Asia. Their aim will be that the "Euro" will become the pre-iminent currency worldwide, accepted on faith as the dollar is now. This bodes poorly for Gold and the dollar, though they will try and have an orderly decline to the dollars strength, lest our goods become too inexpensive relative to their own.

Watch the EU carefully if you're worried about long term Gold trends, Meanwhile, Silver and Platinum have better potential due to their industrial uses and diminshing supply. All the glitters is not necessarily Gold. I'd recommend Platinum & silver of you want to be in the metals. Gold won't take off till we have a big financial market meltdown or a Middle East war.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:49 - ID#269409)
Yes Nick I checked the DOW. It's off .666 % Ohhhhh Myyyy BAD Omen! Perhaps the DEVIL is behind the markets!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:53 - ID#352177)
LGB : Look again.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:54 - ID#333131)
@Seidman on oil
Bill Seidman just claimed on CNBC that the Saudis expect oil to go to $25 by Dec. He claims he "doubts it". But he went on to repeat the prediction over and over. He just came back from there. Does anyone know who he works for now? He's no dummy, but he sounded like he was delivering a message. He also claimed there is "a new" large oil field in SaudiArabia near Riad. Does this make any sense, other than a positioning for a larger quota? What the H is going on?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:56 - ID#269409)
On the other hand
Course with Silver and PLatinum routinely jumping or dropping 5% or more in a single day, a less than 1% move in Equities isn't exaactly out of control volatility now is it? Personally, I'm rootin for DOW 7200. Maybe nostalgic sentiment of the decade ago 19th crash will drive it down over the next couple days, Full "Moon" notwithstanding. ( _'_ )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:59 - ID#364147)
@ trade tensions+ crashin Dow
Trade tensions with Japan escalate as Japanese cargo ships being detained at U.S. ports...Dow down 105!!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 14:59 - ID#364147)
@ trade tensions+ crashin Dow
Trade tensions with Japan escalate as Japanese cargo ships being detained at U.S. ports...Dow down 105!!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:03 - ID#386276)
You need a bit of patience to see it all unfold as it should.
One day does not make a man.
And it will take more than one day to unfold this behemoth.
Likewise to raise gold from the dead.
Go back and have another look now at the dow and see what difference 15 minutes makes, when people make up their minds as to what they want to do. And keep watching for the next little bit -interesting huh.
Might I remind you that you tend to sound a lot like what you accuse others of. A broken record - give it a thump or pull out the plug.

Dow down 140 - has the concensus changed?

Mike the moon does pull us in mysterious ways.
If I never used the moon in my fishing techniques I would have gone home broke every time.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:03 - ID#269409)
Looked again
OK, I looked, trade war with Japan, market crashing, Oct. 19th anniv. on Saturday, head for the hills!! ( Love it... )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:05 - ID#371247)
Yep, Ted, its looking like about everything is down except for my blood pressure. All this suspense has gotten me hyped up and my blood is thudding through the system. Here's a bit of a job for your trouble.

An armless man walks into a bar which is empty except for the bartender. He orders a drink and when he is served he asks the bartender if he would get the money from his wallet in his pocket, since he has no arms. The bartender obliges him and then asks if the bartender would tip the glass to his lips. The bartender did this until the man finished his drink. He then asked if the bartender would get a hanky from his pocket and wipe the foam from his lips. The bartender did it and commented it must be very difficult not to have arms and have to ask someone to do nearly everything for him. The man said, "Yes, it is a bit embarrassing at times. By the way, where is your restroom?" The bartender quickly replied, "The closest one is in the gas station three blocks down the street."

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:06 - ID#364147)
@ Trade tensions
Jap cargo ships being detained by the U.S Maritime commission...

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:06 - ID#260194)
I don't what the CB holdings are today, but according to Money World
magazine this is what they were from 1965 to 1996.

1965 1975 1985 1996

USA 12499 8544 8169 8138

Great Brit. 2012 854 740 717

Canada 1023 875 625 96

Australia 220 230 247 246

Germany 3919 3658 3701 3701

France 4182 3139 3182 3182

Italy 2136 2565 2592 2592

Swiss 2703 2588 2590 2590

Netherland 1561 1690 1708 1708

Portugal 512 862 629 612

Spain 720 444 456 608

Belgium 1385 1312 1329 596

Austria 622 649 658 418

Japan 292 657 754 754

Rest of Asia 725 850 1275 1754

New Zealand 0 1 1 0

( shown in tons )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:08 - ID#371247)
re: my last post
In my last post job=joke. Sorry Ted. How is the weather up there in polar bear country. Down here we are having a great day, wind in the willows. Few willows however. I am reviewing an off-shore trust document. There is something to be said of these as a vehicle to place your assets beyond the reach of creditors.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:10 - ID#364147)
@ Tort
Good one buddy! .....Dow clawin its way back ( down 91 ) ---ain't his sh!t great LGB....

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:12 - ID#246224)
Intra-day traders request for comments RE: market spikes.

Over the past few days I've noticed some very fast spikes up and down in S&P and DOW. Today silver. Some of these look like they are directly on the hour. Any opinions about what gives?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:14 - ID#386276)
If they don't support this market the next wave could be a ripper!
Who in the heat of the moment, is going to want to be long the market after todays actions, with the bonds moving, anniversary looming and AG waiting till 28th.
Not me I'm short. Got my peutz way higher.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:15 - ID#246224)
Does anyone know what Italy's CB gold profile needed to look like to be included in EMU on the first pass? Is this sale motivated by effort to 'make the grade' to be a founding stake holder?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:20 - ID#217198)
@ Full Moon+ LGB
Now do you believe LGB? This is the real thing,the end is near and you better start heading for your bunkers.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:22 - ID#246224)
CB gold sales, to my mind, are always motivated by self interest of the country involved. I can hardly believe in a world embracing, centrally controlled scheme to suppress gold. To me that doesn't jibe with national sovereignty and power. So I must ask what is this nation's interest in selling its hard earned reserves. It seems to me that Italy's interest is plainly a matter of inclusion in the EMU confab. If that is so, I'm interested to know if their position and need for selling action was public knowledge for some time. If not then there may be other CB's which might do similar things in order to enter the EMU on the first round. This should be an interesting quarter if that's the case.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:28 - ID#258427)
Dow -148
Anybody ( or Everybody ) watching the Dow ... ?? Down 148... Whatz with Silver today??

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:32 - ID#252132)
@ Nervous:
At current XAU jof 102.68 we are on the edge of breaking the neckline on the down side. See a Daily LINE chart of XAU

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:32 - ID#252132)
@ Nervous:
At current XAU jof 102.68 we are on the edge of breaking the neckline. See a Daily LINE chart of XAU

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:33 - ID#364147)
@ Dow
Dow down 162...

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:33 - ID#386276)
Most of those spikes were in the first 1/2hr of trading being induced by futures. The nature of the market changed last week when they started trading the futures markets 1/2 hr earlier.
Interesting to note that each day on opening it would take off in one direction only to slowly crawl back to a midway point between high and low. This showed that the market was being led rather than driven.
There has been great expectancy by the bulls to start a new uptrend but with no momentum it couldn't get off it's feet.
Probably been very serious distribution during this period with smart money exiting stage right.
I would not want to be holding shares long at the moment.
This has the potential to turn into a debacle forthwith.
I would have to say that after todays action, the next very short term period would have to be the highest danger period to hold shares for the last ten years.
Potentially there may be no buyers out there soon.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:39 - ID#386276)
5:37 am and worth the wait
Stolen from my second favorite channel AVID

Bears - listen up here - next rally failure is where you load it up and don't hold anything back. ( BULLS you did not see this - go away ) .

Go Steve Peutz ( :o ) ) )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:42 - ID#252132)
@ Cheerleading:
XAU - Hold that neckline, hold that neckline, ( approximatly 102.50-102.60!!!! ) : ) ) ) )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:43 - ID#386276)
Gold starting to look stonger on the dows tanking in the last 1/2 hr volumes coming in.
George Cole what are your thoghts on gold reversing up due to serious tanking of Dow.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:45 - ID#401460)
lookout below?
Japanese ships barred from US ports, those in port borded. They won't pay their bill - what's new. Now we can take our attention off the President and that thing on his thing that they keep talking about. Everything appears to be down, Dow. Nasdaq, S&P, Gold, Oil, Hitech., etc. etc. Flight to short end of the treasury, got to keep this Country going you know.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:45 - ID#293315)
Hey all
I was happily surprised to see that
the Dow wasn't going to arrive at 8300
too early. Everything is lined up
for a 10/23/97 arrival. Please don't
ignore the solid action in gold and
gold stocks today in your rush for
the life jackets. We should be
seeing $310 on or before the 23rd
of October.

Go Peutz Go
Peutz for King of Kitco

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:46 - ID#386276)
Fed support plus dippies support for end of day.
I feel like dipping into AU calls.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:47 - ID#401237)
lookout below?
Japanese ships barred from US ports, those in port borded. They won't pay their bill - what's new. Now we can take our attention off the President and that thing on his thing that they keep talking about. Everything appears to be down, Dow. Nasdaq, S&P, Gold, Oil, Hitech., CRB, coffee, silver etc. etc. Flight to short end of the treasury, got to keep this Country going you know.

Still glad I'm awake
(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:48 - ID#239276)
at 4 in the afternoon
Usually the rum has me snockered by this time.
George - I'm wondering how encouraged you are
by the fact that gold closed lower today. Could
you put your spin on it so that it looks like
is was strong in the last hour of trading when
in fact it went from positive to negative
in the last hour of trading?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:48 - ID#352177)
Useful site

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:49 - ID#352177)
Useful site.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:53 - ID#352177)
Dunno why the url is not printing. So I am going to type it in.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:57 - ID#30116)
I go out to watch the, "PeaceMaker", and come home to find that the Dow has been nuked! What happened? Of course, gold and silver did their 'thing' nicely today. Where's that finger gif!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 15:58 - ID#352177)
Last try

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:01 - ID#30116)
Very few things that are 'green' on my screen. I have a tick of -601 with TRIN at 1.44

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:01 - ID#352177)
Last try

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:02 - ID#33180)
trade war with Japan, BIG TIME
panda: is what happened while you were at the movies.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:07 - ID#272206)
@watch out LGB
LGB and other doubters:
Mike Sheller is not a lonely cry in the wilderness. Many of us use astrology profitably. As I have said in this forum before, Arch Crawford predicted the spring '97 Dow and S&P top and he has called for wild down markets on Oct 16th consistently since August. If you don't think the moon has any effect on human behavior, ask your wife or your daughter. If you don't have either, ask 5 women you know. I suppose in your universe, tidal effects cannot be felt by people, only oceans. If you want an objective study of the effects of lunar and solar eclipses on the Dow, look at the data. I'm sure Mike Sheller can provide you with the proper reference material. Stop and think about the average % advance of the Dow in each month of the calendar. The early summer months show the smallest average advance in the Dow over the last 70 years, but when crashes occur, it is often in October. Why? because this is when the astrological and technical factors have combined in the past, just as they have this October. Will the effect of a full moon show objective increases in human aggression and mental illness? Yes. I suspect your cited study was poorly done. A proper study would include full moons in conjunction with other astrological phenomena known to exite humans ( eclipses and planet conjunctions ) . This would be compared to calming astrological configurations. Also, there would be a large population so that those susceptible to the full moon would show in the study. Not everyone has the capability of moon-madness! There is no doubt in my mind that this kind of a study would show clear planetary influence on human moods. There have been scientific studies of Alaskan inhabitants and their susceptibility to mental illness during the winter of long nights. Not all are susceptible. But those that are have extreme depression and other objective symptoms. How do you explain the fact that some are susceptible and some not? It cannot be explained with our knowledge today. My guess, LGB, is that if you follow the markets long enough, you will use whatever tool gives you an advantage, as Mike and I have. Learn to explain why they work in the next life as your kids laugh all the way to their gold safe deposit boxes.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:10 - ID#252132)
@ Stay tuned for tomorrow:
XAU closed at 102.44. Whether or not if the Head and Shoulder formation on the XAU has held is inconclusive. Stay tuned for tomorrow action. Lunch time. out of here : )

George Cole
(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:15 - ID#42953)
gold action
The gold action today was not good considering the steep drop in the Dow and trade tensions with Japan. The yellow not reacting well to news. Very short-term trend will remain down until this changes. Minuscule gold stock volume also suggests lower prices ahead.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:16 - ID#386276)
Fed's Phillips: U.S. Markets Can Absorb Shocks

Intel Shares Plunge on Slowing Revenue Outlook

Dollar Falls Amid U.S. Inflation Fears

U.S. September Inflation Data Comforts Markets

U.S. Real Earnings Down 0.3 Percent

Blue-Chip Stocks Are Sharply Lower Today

US Consumer Prices Muted Despite Tight Markets

No Breakthrough in EU-US Trade Talks

Britain in Damage Control on India Tour

Indonesia Drought Kills 416 in Indonesia

White House Hands Over New Videos of Clinton

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:17 - ID#30116)
elf -- Oh, is that all? I thought it was something serious. :- )

What's this with the Saudis' kicking undocumented workers out of their country? Also, $25/barrel oil? I thought we low inflation.
The bond market says so! :- ) )

Now, about this paper situation... I said it yesterday, and I'l say it again. Stocks suck! Now that I'm done with this juvenile form of self expression, perhaps in this go around, it'll be the old heavy stuff in your hand that wins this race. More food for thought... The Damn brokers win either way.....................

the timely fashion
(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:19 - ID#323306)
and the fashion of time
"Very short term trend"??????

What kind of nonsense is this? Is a very short-term trend
measured in seconds? Minutes? Time span, please,
learner George.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:20 - ID#57232)
re:elf - "Trade war with Japan big time" Could there be a behind the scenes battle with Japan? Japan sells US treasuries and stocks ( probably mostly on the DOW ) , and all of a sudden trade sanctions by the US? The timing of this is uncanny!

very short-term question
(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:23 - ID#377132)
addressed to a long-time listener
George - so should we be buying the dips?
( Remember, the low is in according to you.
Remember? )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:29 - ID#386276)
U.S. Maritime Agency Moves to Ban, Seize Japanese Ships

U.S. stocks clipped by earnings, trade tensions

COMEX copper ends lower on trade selling

FOCUS-European markets cautious ahead of U.S. data

U.S. needs to guard against overheating - Yellen

U.S. OPTIONS FOCUS/October options out like a lamb

Merck falls as Q3 earnings just miss mark

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:30 - ID#30116)
JTF -- you beat me to it! The 'Net is real slow now...

The point that I was going to raise was, as you mentioned, sanctions against Japan could lead to selling of U.S. Paper and buying of the yellow stuff. That is, if it hasn't already happened! Somebody had to be buy

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:31 - ID#386276)
U.S. Maritime Agency Moves to Ban, Seize Japanese Ships

U.S. stocks clipped by earnings, trade tensions

COMEX copper ends lower on trade selling

FOCUS-European markets cautious ahead of U.S. data

U.S. needs to guard against overheating - Yellen

U.S. OPTIONS FOCUS/October options out like a lamb

Merck falls as Q3 earnings just miss mark

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:32 - ID#30116)
JTF -- you beat me to it! The 'Net is real slow now...

The point that I was going to raise was, as you mentioned, sanctions against Japan could lead to selling of U.S. Paper and buying of the yellow stuff. That is, if it hasn't already happened! Somebody had to be buying all of the gold being dumped. Hence my comments on the equities side of things. The damn metals is where it'll be at! Physical! Assuming that the brinksmenship has begun in earnest, of course.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:35 - ID#30116)
Correction -- Kitco is REAL slow !!!!
While I was waiting, from DBC news


(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:36 - ID#335190)
TVX Gold & Greece @ Ontario Court & $500 Million suit
Thursday, October 16, 1997

TVX faces $500M suit over Greek gold mine
Mining Reporter The Financial Post
TVX Gold Inc. is being sued for $500 million by three men who say they were unfairly dealt out of the Toronto company's plan to develop a major Greek gold mine.
The trial is set to begin Monday in Toronto before a judge of Ontario Court, general division. At issue is TVX's rights to the Kassandra complex, a 31,400-hectare property in Greece that includes three mines, two mills and a gold-copper deposit.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:36 - ID#57232)
@Work - quiet day
Donald, all: "Hong Kong asks Japan to help Hong Kong with China privatization" Tun Chee-hwa ( HK leader ) asks Japan to join forces with Hong Kong to privatize 350,000 state-run mainland Chinese firms."

Did AG have anything to do with this -- not enough money in the IMF, so the Japanese bail out mainland China? How much of these 350,000 Chinese companies are finacially viable? How long would it take to review the financial status of 350,000 firms? Not good timing, given Japans own problems! Another question, if any of these companies were in good financial shape, why would they be included in the 350,000? How many firms are there in mainland China? How much debt?
Donald and all -- this could be the trigger if confirmed! Anyone still have money betting on a bull market? I'm wondering about what I have left!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:42 - ID#57232)
Panda: But I missed the point on who might be buying all the gold - Japan, other SE Asians with some money left?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:43 - ID#31868)
For those of you that are looking for some further insight to the tensions between the US and Japan, the following can be found on ( digest section under ORACLE banner.

I also find the privateer to be an excellent source of thought provoking writings.


"Only Solution Is To Dump U.S. Treasuries and Buy GOLD!"

Financial Tsunami Looming in Land of Rising Sun


The best description for the hypothesis of this essay is a paragraph borrowed from the internationally acclaimed Australian newsletter, THE PRIVATEER:

"If the Japanese are really in financial trouble - and they are - and if they were to sell their U.S. Treasury debt paper on the open market, the results would be catastrophic. If Japan sold their U.S. bonds on the open market, the results would be a diving U.S. Dollar, a big jump in long-term ( 30-year ) bond rates - AND A CERTAIN DIVE ON U.S. STOCK MARKETS!"

WHY WOULD THEY SELL... you might ask?

Any reasonably analytical person would naturally want to know the reason why the Nippons want... indeed need to sell their burdensome load of U.S. debt paper. In essence it is simple common-sense. Japan is suffering serious financial problems. And like any person or entity in financial straits, you sell what you have the most of, and what is most liquid. Naturally, this is overly simplified - however, we must recall the Japanese are wallowing in more than $300 billion in Uncle Sam's IOUs. The Japanese own fully one-third of the U.S. debt paper.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:48 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.39 Gold beat the Dow today by .27 ounces. Gold is still the preferred investment and the trend remains in favor of gold as it generally has since early July.

to Donald
(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:52 - ID#323144)
wherever you may be
Donald - does this mean that since July, gold has
performed better than the Dow? If both move down
simultaneously, the ratio stays the same, is that
right? So this number could be meaningless when
both are tracking in the same direction, is that

to Donald
(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:54 - ID#323144)
the valiant warrior for the Dow/gold ratio
So the preferred investment since early July has
been gold, is that right? Does this ratio correct
for volumes? I mean, we could be using a Dow/rhodium
ratio to show that rhodium was the preferred
investment over the Dow since early July. But is
that necessarily true?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 16:58 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .315 The component stocks of the XAU remain in risky territory at about the same relative level as they have been since January, 1996, a minor element of risk was removed by the drop today

to Donald
(Thu Oct 16 1997 17:01 - ID#323144)
can I subscribe to your newsletter?
The Donald/Ronald ratio measures number
of times Donald posts/day versus number of
hamburgers I eat/day. The number has been
steady at 6 since September, when the
E. coli scare decreased my hamburger
intake. Part of the risk of Donald
posting was lessened when Kitco went
offline for a couple days.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 17:03 - ID#258427)
@To Donald
What's with this guy "To Donald"...Children playing with daddy's computer? Over Medication? Mental Illness? Jeeezzee!!!

to Donald
(Thu Oct 16 1997 17:05 - ID#323144)
cancel my subscription
Wait, I remembered now what it was about
the Dow and gold that is more important
than the Dow/gold ratio:

Dow - near all-time high
Gold - near 12 year low

Dow-gold correlation - Miniscule

to Billd
(Thu Oct 16 1997 17:10 - ID#323144)
better than "bill me" HAHAHAHAHAHA
Hey Billd - It's the cat. I was just demonstrating
how Donald won't respond to my goads during his
'silence is golden' fast. In case you haven't
figured it out yet, Donald is one of George S.
Cole's fragmented "characters" - someone he plays
on TV.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 17:20 - ID#401237)
Japan needs OIL, Japan has little Gold, Japan has a bunch of US$, it takes Gold to buy Oil from many of the Oil suppliers; therefore, Japan has to exchange its dollars for Gold some how - RIGHT. ( see posts on Kitco for confermation )

Gusto Oro
(Thu Oct 16 1997 17:29 - ID#377235)
George Cole, mi amigo, you got it all wrong--the DOWs's performance was disappointing today considering the steep drop in metals and positive earnings announcements. WHERE is the new all time high for the DOW you told-you-so bulls out there?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 17:34 - ID#18970)
@Ive figured it out.
Greenspan/Rubin/Congress/The Prez. all know we are in an unsustainable financial bubble. But the important point to remember is who will the public blame for the collapse. The best possibility for the politicians especially if they want more "sacrafice" and "volunteerism" is a foreign power. It looked like Iran but they wouldnt take the bait plus people could get hurt. BUT an economic war with Japan would be great for politicians in both countries. Our financial losses will be blamed on the Japanese and not misfeasance and malfeasance at home. Ditto for Japan.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 17:47 - ID#424147)
@ hepCRAP
hepCRAP: How did you ever afford Apartment A ( har har har ) must be your all knowing trading skills ( har har har ) noticed you are posting alot- did Burger King lay you off ( har har har ) I'm soooo sucessful I live in apartment A ( not B mind you ) har har har. I'm just soooo coool-I'm a coool cat ( har har har ) more North Carolina TRASH- just like your mentor-Jesse ( har har har )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 17:53 - ID#424147)
@ Donald
Don't mind hepCRAP- he's sick in the head on top of being the ultimate LOSER ( har har har ) he's put all his trading profits into Apartment A ( har har har ) Whatta palace ( har har har ) why he's sooo busy ( flipping hamburgers ) that he can hang at Kitco- whatta life? he's the cat ( CRAP ) or in other words-he's what you might call-internet TRASH. Take out the garbage honey!

Spud Master
(Thu Oct 16 1997 17:58 - ID#273112)
yes, it sounds plausible - can I have the movie rights?
WW - despite you being one of that class whom I hope goes up against the wall first, I agree with your plot: the Japanese must be in a fix over their exposure to US federal debt ... plus they must be fed-up with being told to play ball or die. Perhaps they've already begun buying gold, Washington & Fed have caught on, told them to stop, Japanese reply "f--- you" ( politely of course ) and Greenspam & crew now set up the CYA scenario for when the Japanese drop all furtive gold buying and "come out into the open", sending US Treasury notes into the toilet.

to Jeff
(Thu Oct 16 1997 17:59 - ID#323144)
spelled in the Malibu Barbie tradition
Hey Geoff - You are my new bitch.
Geoff, not only do I live in apartment A, I live
in a room in apartment A, not even the whole
apartment. Of course, as we established, that
was three years ago, but what the hell, let's
keep pretending we still live there, and let's
keep pretending that we're still in love,
with you on the receiving end. In fact, while
we're pretending, let's keep pretending we made
money on gold this year and lost money on the
Dow. Oops, that's where your fantasy is going
to have to end, Geoff. Get lubed up, pretty boy.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 17:59 - ID#18970)

Spud Master
(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:00 - ID#273112)
measure once, chainsaw multiple times....
I designate tommorrow "Black Friday" in honour of the WW-percieved market crash.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:00 - ID#386276)
If the Dow tanks like it should I'm going to have some serious moola to invest in the physical at the bottom, so long as they honour the paper that my SPX puts are written on.

This could well be the trade of a lifetime.

All goldbugs who are willing to bet on gold going up should be willing for a few small bets on on the dow going down.

I picked up some small SPX Dec850 puts for $500 two days ago.

Possible potential in a tank and then being reinvested in gold for it's run that we all know is coming could be absolutely awesome.

The chance of losing some money is no different than under normal trading conditions.
Risk/Reward looks fantastic.

Technically going on data from hundreds of charts and all the available known information ( much of which I have gleaned from here )
the timing has never been more appropiate than now.

Of course I have the priviledge of being totaly wrong.

It is up to you to decide.

Please take no notice of this advise if you do not understand trading, as it is only my humble opinion.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:01 - ID#18970)
SPUD Skip the class warfare stuff. I help the people who are being trampled under by the debt/greed out of control system.

to nick
(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:04 - ID#323144)
at night
Hey Nick, perhaps we could take your advice
from "hundreds of charts" more seriously if
you also learned how to spell. Are you
manic right now, Nick. Are you into massive
house cleaning and major purchases. Your
speech is pressured and you are up way past
your bedtime. Good luck nick but
don't take others down under with you.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:16 - ID#33180)
reason for your multiple posts last night
BERNATZ de Ventadorn: When you post near midnight Montreal time, your messages go to the bottom of the screen, not the top. You did not see your successful post before repeating it.

Can you please answer a question of French pronunciation for a fellow ancient music fan? My Renaissance Consort, Fortuna, will honor Guillaume DuFay with a concert to celebrate his 600th anniversary. Musicians in this country pronounce his name in 3 syllables Du-Fa-i. An American-born French professor insists it should be 2 syllables Du-Fe. Which was correct in 14th century France? We take our 3-syllable position from DuFay's third setting of Ave Regina Coelorum, in which he clearly gives every voice three notes on which to sing his name at measure 87 "Miserere supplicanti Du-Fa-y".

(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:17 - ID#17155)
US-Japan Games
I do believe we are experiencing something unprecedented.
Have ships of any major country been ever detained or seized since WWII? This is the stuff wars are made of. The politicians in Japan must now retailiate. If they do not, the following will happen:
1. Their stocks hit the toilet ( I am going to watch them tonight )
2. The Japanese politicians will lose any respect of their people ( after all any political business is above all a show-business ) .

By all means do retailiate! Kill the paper monster that has destroyed any reason in the USA. Send the corrupted US old-farts ( who got to own most of US stocks ( or illusion of them ) by robbing their kids and grand-kids of any future ) to die in their own excrement -- this is exactly where they belong. I have been chilling a bottle of Dom Perignon for just such an emergency.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:40 - ID#386276)
Hep your right, it's way past my bedtime, Iv'e been up for 24hrs, you'd expect me to be tired wouldn't you.
Iv'e spent a whole year waiting to be ready and poised for this occasion.
When I used to go prawn fishing I'd stay awake for ever if I knew I was making money.
In '91 I caught 50 ton of prawns in 10 days, I would have been getting about 3 hrs sleep a day.
I was making about a grand a ton and it was all hard work.
I doubt you would have made the grade.
I wore out two full crews ( 8 crew on board at a time ) and they were walking zoombies at the end of that period.
One thing I know is you don't let your guard down when the stakes are at their best. I don't believe in sleeping on the job
I'll not be going to bed probably till tomorrow night as I'll be up watching the rest of the world's response today.
I might be a bit keen, but I see a window of opportunity and I'm not going to be sitting on the window sill watching.
What are your positions - short or long, or you don't have any.
Don't tell me that you don't own nothing and are just here to do what you do best - stir and agravate.

Bob M
(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:42 - ID#26059)
This thing with the Japanese will be another wash..Clinton will intervene and everything will be OK..notice that everything that was supposed to be an earth shatterring event, always turns out OK..bad news always turns into good news..I am beginning to think that the economy and markets are TOTALLY controlled..nothing bad will happen until the powers that be decide that it should....I am beginning to reassess my position that bad events are inevitable and will shake markets..those days are over..control is absolute.....they have won..

(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:42 - ID#348397)
So, is this the beginning of the end for stocks this century or just another blip on the way to 10000. Also, gold disappointed and may be headed for 250, or 450 I'm not sure, but no one else is either. Except Hepcat. He seems to know.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:45 - ID#346140)
Though this is just MHO - I'd go with the du-fa-i ( linguistic studies & all that, but seriously, spelling *usually* indicates remnant pronunciations )
Remember you are dealing with dialectical infuences as well - which mean that "today's correct" pronunciation ( as well as yesteryear's ) would be all over the geographic and phonetic board...
e.g. Ask a Beligian, Swiss, Parisian, La. Cajun, or Quebecois and the "correct" pronunciation will vary to your taste. If I could find a 14th century frenchman - I'd give you the authoritative answer.

FWIW cmh

** Topic ** Gold ( down again tomorrow? ) that's where my bet is - cheaper is better for now.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:46 - ID#372274)

Re Blocking of Japanese ships: 90's version of Smoot-Hawley?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:47 - ID#386276)
George Cole
The number of new yearly lows should have spiked nicely last night.
Opposite to the number of new highs which set max records just a week ago.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:54 - ID#386276)
If any of you are interested go over to AVID and see what the day traders think.
Scroll back to this morning and read on.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 18:58 - ID#386276)
For the poets:

The Jabberstock. Twas bullig, and the slithy brokers Did buy and gamble in the craze
All rosy were the Dow Jones stokers By market's wrath un-phazed.
``Beware the Jabberstock, my son! The cost that bites, the worth that falls!
Beware the Econ'mist's word, and shun The spurious Street o' Walls!''
He took his forecast sword in hand: Long time the Boesk'some foe he sought
Sake's liquidity, so d'vested he, And stood awhile in thought.
And as in bearish thought he stood The Jabberstock, with clothes of tweed,
Came waffling with the truth too good, And yuppied great with greed!
Chip Black! Chip Blue! And through and through the forecast blade went snicker-snack!
It bit the dirt, and with its shirt, He went rebounding back.
``And hast thou slain the Jabberstock? Come to my firm, V.P.ish boy!
O big bucks day! Moolah! Good Play!'' He bought him a Mercedes Toy.
Twas panic, and the slithy brokers Did gyre and tumble in the Crash
All flimsy were the Dow Jones stokers As mammon's wrath them bash!

Off to watch the reactions globally ( :o ) ) ) )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 19:00 - ID#33180)
#346140: Thanks, I agree. Who knows how he would have pronounced it 600 years ago? But since Bernatz pretends to have lived since Eleanor of Aquitaine, I thought it fun to ask him.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 19:07 - ID#352177)

G S Cole
(Thu Oct 16 1997 19:27 - ID#42932)
new lows.
Nick: The number of new lows rose just slightly today from 30 to 33. Still too small to signal real trouble YET. I wouldn't short too heavily until this number climbs towards triple digits. The failure of gold to rally today also suggests today's stock decline is not the beginning of THE BIG ONE.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 19:29 - ID#18970)
4 million to Japan in fines give me a break. I almost think that when they know the market wont hold because of its gross over leveraged ownership they scan the newswires to find a story which will explain the decline. The story is always REVERSABLE thus no loss in confidence.
Think about it this is repeat. OH the mkt fell because of what AG said!
If they dont come up with reasons for the violent reversals the money flow might dissapate thus bringing the end of fat WALL ST fees sooner.
Remember the new valuation paradigm/ SCREW the workers for profits so mgmt makes a killing on its Wall ST stock options. There is a special place in hell for these perpetrators!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 19:29 - ID#315256)
@Puetz, Nick, Kolorado
Puetz, re your 15:20. A 1.5% drop ( which we've seen QUITE a few times in the past year ) , does not a crash make. Has nothing to do with the Moon and everything to do with Japan. Historically, 1.5% moves don't rate so much as a blip on the volatility scale compared to some of the DOW's past antics.

Nick, re your 15:03. I'm an avid fisherman also Nick. The Moon DOES play an important role there. Why? Because as anyone with the slightest amount of Marine Biology background knows, the fish feed HEAVILY during a full moon because of the added light and hence the bite is not nearly as good during that time of month. Nothing "metaphysical" there whatsoever.

Kolorado, re your 16:07. Believe what you want my friend, bone casting, tea leaves, crystals, Taro cards, palm reading, or planetary influences from millions of miles away. Astrology has been disproven and discredited in every intance where a proper study has been done. Correlations with human behaviour based on times of the year relate to seasons...cold, wet...length of daylight..etc. That's a well understood set of influences. And certainly such seasonal influences might well affect human behaviour. Spring, a time of exuberant optimistic renewal could well prompt "irrational exuberant highs", fall leading to dismal winter, the opposite. Even if we accept that the Moon's pull on gravity somehow influences the "inner man" ( something I don't believe based on good studies instead of charlatan's nonsense ) even if we were to accept the Moon's influence, how do we leap from that to Planets and stars whose physical influence on us is a billionth of a trillionth the influence of the sun and moon?? Not to mention old Mother Earth herself with all the weather and natural phenomena that occur based on that weather, geologic events, etc.?? Come come now, let us reason together......

(Thu Oct 16 1997 19:30 - ID#57232)
Nick ( @Aussie ) : You're a poet as well! Lewis Carroll upgraded! Aurator will be impressed!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 19:37 - ID#346140)
Je ne l'avais pas su. Quand-mme, Il me faut vous dire que Bernatz devrait tre l'autorit - bien sr. Pardonnez-moi j'attends la rponse de lui... Allo - Bernatz reveillez-vous. On attend votre sagesse.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 19:39 - ID#60253)
This was posted earlier. Also, I will post
on Sat..

Date: Wed Oct 15 1997 21:48
ANOTHER ( REPLY? ) ID#60253:
Reprint from post:

" Now all govts. dont get gold for oil,
just a few. Thats all it takes. For now!"

(Thu Oct 16 1997 19:40 - ID#315256)
@Kolorado, PS, Lunar influence on Gold, stocks
BTW Kolorado, you stated that I must not have a wife or daughters or I would have seen the Moon's influence. Firstly, that's quite a sexist comment to assume women would be more influenced than men by some outside Lunar force. Secondly, I do have a wife and 2 daughters. I've never seen a pattern of change in their behaviour during the full moon...but I HAVE seen a RADICAL change in their behaviour during certain hormonally induced cycles... and during the taking of certain medications...and during pregnancy....and during certain types of prolonged weather patterns...and and and and.... See, if I used your logic ( and SHeller's ) I'd notice that some of those events ocurred on a full moon, and hence the full moon was the culprit. But if I did an independant scientific study of ALL factors, with control groups who didn't know they were being studied, then I'd conclude what all such credible scientific studies HAVE condluded..namely, the full moon has little or no EFFECT on human behaviour except as modified by the added light it provides. And this is especially the case when compared against all the DOZENS if not HUNDREDS of daily influences we have which exert so much more powerful a force in our lives. The big picture my friend..the big picture. Cast the fairy tales to the wind, no matter how comforting and 'easy" they make it to explain lifes little problems.

Moon's influence on Gold & stocks? I bet you could produce charts of literally hundreds of other factors with more influence on the markets. But then, boring fundamentals don't sell much snake oil do they?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 19:51 - ID#286199)
Here's the latest from the WSJ:

Industrials Slide
As Bond Market
Reverses Course


Stocks tumbled
Thursday as investors
fretted about corporate
earnings and an escalation
in trade tensions between
the U.S. and Japan. Bonds
reversed an early gain,
despite benign inflation
data, and the dollar fell.
The Dow Jones
Industrial Average
skidded more than 160
points at its low, sinking
to just below 7900. The
average recovered a bit in
late trading, but it still
closed with a loss of
119.10 to 7938.88, its
lowest close since Sept.
26 and biggest one-day
point decline since Sept.
The Standard & Poor's
500-stock index fell 10.49
to 955.23, the New York
Stock Exchange
Composite Index lost 4.59
to 502.30 and the Nasdaq
Composite Index sank
23.71 to 1699.66. The
Russell 2000 index of
small stocks declined 5.58
to 457.16.
The day began with
optimism after the Labor
Department reported
consumer prices rose by a
less-than-expected 0.2%
last month. Bond prices
shot higher and the Dow
industrials climbed more
than 55 points shortly after
the opening bell.
But the financial
markets quickly became
wobbly. First, technology
stocks slumped after
investors reacted with
disappointment to Compaq
Computer's third quarter
earnings report. The big
PC maker's net income
rose sharply and topped
the consensus forecast on
Wall Street, but it fell
short of the most
aggressive forecasts,
including some "whisper"
The weakness in
technology pared the gains
elsewhere in stocks
through midday. Selling
intensified during the
afternoon, triggered first
by a the reversal in the
bond market, then by
rumors that Goldman
Sachs & Co.'s influential
market analyst, Abby
Cohen, had predicted that
the Federal Reserve
would move to lift interest
Ms. Cohen, in an
interview later, denied
that she had made any
comments or altered her
forecast for rates.
Although she said the Fed
may nudge rates up a slim
one-quarter percentage
point, as it did in March,
"I don't see any significant
increase in rates any time
But there was more
troubling news for the
market later. With about
an hour left to trade, the
U.S. Maritime
Commission, an
independent government
agency, ordered Japanese
cargo ships be barred
from U.S. ports, escalating
trade tensions with Tokyo.
Enforcement of the ban
was delayed in hopes that
the dispute over making
Japanese harbors freer
could be resolved.
Market strategists and
traders said earnings
worries were the one
constant for the day. The
that started with Compaq
intensified after Merck
reported lower than
expected earnings for the
third quarter, and Sears,
Roebuck said its
fourth-quarter earnings
likely will be trimmed by
delinquencies on
consumer credit accounts.
Merck shares dropped
4 5/8 to 97 5/8 and Sears
shed 5 3/4 to 48 1/8. Both
stocks are components of
the Dow Jones industrials.

"The shock of the Sears
and the Merck unraveled
the market and it gradually
accelerated through the
day," said Steven Kroll, a
managing director at
Monness Crespi & Hardt.
Many investors bought
stock during the prior
several weeks in
expectation that earnings
would be strong. With the
recent disappointments,
and after the market's
gains since
mid-September, Mr. Kroll
expects investors to sell to
lock in profits.
But even shares of
companies that have met
expectations have fallen in
recent sessions, noted
Ricky Harrington,
technical analyst at
Interstate Johnson Lane
Securities Corp. "It's a
situation where the good
news has already been
factored into these stocks,"
he said.
World-wide, stocks
fell in dollar terms. The
Dow Jones World Stock
Index was down 0.34 to
173.52 as of 5 p.m. EDT.
In major market action:

Stocks slumped.
Volume reached 597
million shares on the New
York Stock Exchange,
where 1,809 stocks
declined and 1,042 stocks
Bonds inched up. The
Treasury's benchmark long
bond added less than 1/8
point, or $1.25 for each
$1,000 face amount. Its
yield stood at 6.39%.
The dollar fell. It was
quoted at 1.7465 marks
and 119.55 yen, compared
with 1.7475 marks and
121.10 yen late
Wednesday in New York.

Tapewatch Update

Consumer prices rose
0.2% in September, while
so-called core inflation,
which excludes food and
energy prices, rose the
same amount. Economists
had predicted a rise of
0.3% for both.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 19:58 - ID#386276)
JTF - To the fair maiden Deese goes the honour of that pearl.

George - Gold I think did very well last night. I was watching it intraday and it formed a little wedge just before Donald posted the rumour of 200 tones being dumped. It then started falling steady, steady. When the Dow started falling harshly and bonds started moving, it pulled its loses up, volumes started entering and the price rallied up a bit. If the harsh fall was started because of this 200 ton sale, then the Dow's fall certainly stopped it falling more. I'm sure if we ( Kitco ) know of this rumour then all the big boys know by now and all that is needed is that the public be informed. I tend to think that both the dow and golds future is poised on a fulcrum. Dow falls - gold up and vice versa. The reaction from the public as the news is released shal swing one way or the other. The volatility within the market is heating up very fast. On avid they just said that globex is closed to trading. If this is the case it speaks volumes.

LGB Fishing is almost never good on full moons because all the little critters, from plankton up dissappear. Too easily to be seen and eaten. Most paddocks ( as us skipper's call fishing grounds ) almost go fallow as the moon ascends to its zenith. Then pick up on the way into the darks.
You sound like so many friends I have who are avid fishermen but always come home hungry. To me a fisherman is not one who goes fishing but one who comes home with a full creel. If you could see some of my fishing photos taken over the years you would not profess to be a fisherman, but more a landlubber who spends to much money on fishing gadgets, always boasting to have the best tackle, the best boat, and knowledge of the best spots. And to return at the end of the day holding up two 18" fish and saying to your mates that's fishing and I caught the most today. HA HA HA.
I'd love to see you out on my boat in a cyclone Green to the gills and not with envy.
Iv'e been through 3 so far and there's nothing so exhilarating as to feel the pure power of my mistress the sea.
Back to the paddlin pool.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 19:59 - ID#35081)
LGB,HEP, et al : The common thread between current reality ( or our perception of it ) and deviate behavior is fear. Man will always be
predictable over time. Can you smell the fear in the markets ( domestic and global ) , and can you see people beginning to huddle together for
security ? The majority do not think like you.BOO, October 31st-January 1st. Bye

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:03 - ID#30116)
Spud Master -- On your 17:58.

"Japanese reply ... ( politely of course ) " I beg to differ. I think the Japanese told'em where, when, and how to put it where the sun don't shine. Remember Hashimotos' comments at the G7+1 summit?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:04 - ID#35081)
LGB: Thanks. I'll look more at the white metals in terms of supply/demand. I'm up to my butt in AU now, and will force myself
to go white to my neckline. Please post it when you start to take a
taste. Your fiend, Meph

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:05 - ID#57232)
@Home - US Government securities 33% foreign owned
Donald,all: I have Laurence Meyer's speech given Oct 14 at George Washington University. Most of the material is on world trade and management of the dollar. Essential facts that I understand include the following:
1 ) US foreign trade is now 24% of GNP ( 1996 ) , and rising twice as fast as the US GDP over the last 3 decades.
2 ) US government securities are now 33% foreign owned
3 ) US corporate bonds now 17% foreign owned
4 ) US corporate stocks 7% foreign owned
5 ) US holdings of foreign securities now 10% of US equity holdings, and foreign bonds 4% of US bond holdings.
6 ) Daily currency exchange volume doubled from 1989 to 1995 to $1.2trillion with more than 4/5 transactions in dollars

There is much to read, but one interesting statement stands out: with $1.2 trillion in daily exhange transasctions, "there is ground for scepticism that intervention, which seldom ranges into the billions of dollars in daily volume, can have more than a marginal and transitory effect".

So, now 33% of our government debt is owned by foreigners ( Japan and ? ) , our foreign trade is now at 24% of total GDP ( 1996 ) and rising, and the volume of dollar trading is so high that the Fed does not have the resources to intervene ( directly ) in a meaningful way! What does that leave when the dollar needs to be supported? What will our AG do if those 33% foreign investors want to sell their US government securities?
Raise interest rates? "Sell" gold to support the dollar? Is this form of gold "selling" that does not lead to true gold sales temporary only because the gold is only loaned or borrowed?

Donald - did you see my earlier post on mainland China? Japan is supposed to pick up the tab ( with Hong Kong ) for the 350,000 mainland Chinese state-run firms that are in financial trouble. Where is the money coming from?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:06 - ID#30116)
Bob M. -- @18:42


(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:09 - ID#348129)
Japan dropping as I post - down 220. Looks like it could go 500 easily.
More ugly action in Gold today. Silver is now a liability also.
Path of least resistence.
Pass the prozak....... :- ( (

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:12 - ID#386276)
Could you please supply the url for Japan indices that you are using.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:12 - ID#315256)
Well Meph, can't disagree with your "fear" premise. "fear and Greed" and all that. And yes, I perceive that fear is becoming the more dominant influence as of late...good times can't go on for ever. In my gut instinct ( Sheller, Nick, et al will say that I'm perceiving heavenly bodeis in spite of myself ) ... anyway, my instincts tell me that it is prudent right now to be on the sidelines. However, I will put my money where my mouth be when and if we see DOW 7200. I'll start VERY cautiously averaging back in..meanwhile..I have physical whites, and room for them to fall very far for very long is very slim. The inventory just ain't there. What CB sales can depress the ever shrinking supply of available silver inventory? Declining 200 million ounces a year or so for 5 years running and soon to drop below the 100 million ounce mark. Where can it go by Y2K but to the MOON?? ( Full or otherwise... )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:18 - ID#217268)
Would someone confirm whether of not tomorrow ( US ) is triple-whitching ?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:19 - ID#57232)
@Home - message to ANOTHER
Another: We are glad you are still with us, and we await your words of wisdom. I for one realize that all of my statements are never fully consistent from post to post, because I am human. Perhaps you will enlarge on how the gold "sales" are used to control the value of the US dollar/oil/US treasuries, etc. My guess is that all gold ( derivative, loans,etc ) manipulations that do not involve true Central Bank selling of gold have an expiration date attached -- ie temporary only. In a situation where the dollar/oil/treasury price needs to be controlled "long term" one either one must sell gold ( which must be announced ) , or one finds a different method to achieve the goal. Am I getting close to the LBMA story? Again, I do not expect a direct reply.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:21 - ID#287389)

Re your 7:41 this morning and Ashanti -

Isn't the "neutral point" of the au/xau ratio about .296? And if this is the case, your purchase would be better timed below this level. Oui!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:22 - ID#315256)
@Nick, fishing
Pardon me Nick but WHEN did I ever say I came home skunked? I can't remember it happening to be quite honest. You Aussie's think all the fish are down under? Don't brag to me with your fishing stories about photo's pal! I have some pics of Salmon ( and even an 18 pound Albacore ) from trips this year and lot's of excellent eating trout stringers from the Sierra's. And fancy equipment? PuhhhLeaase! Leave that for the Egomanics like RJ. I stick with basic gear, basic tactics, habitat, and yes, dark of the Moon ( plus, don't bother with Monterrey bay during storms..and don't bother when the barometers falling ) . Besides, unlike those Aussie fish, we can actually EAT the fish here without worrying about being poisoned to death by lil microbes!

When I was "down under" you couldn't go wading cause of "Man O wars" and Sharks, you couldn't eat the reef fish unless you wanted to risk death, and you couldn't go near the river cause of Crocks! Some relaxing time you guy's have!!!! I'll take my "puny" strings of freshwater trout & , Steelhead, and Saltwater salmon, Ocean perch, Lingcod, Blues Reds & Albacore ANY day!!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:23 - ID#57232)
@Home -- Laurence Meyer is a FedRes Board Governor
To all - re: 20:05 post -- source was Federal Reserve- sorry!

Bob M
(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:24 - ID#26059)
Another- what is your take on the gold-Dow the insider control of the markets absolute? I enjoy your commentary..

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:24 - ID#26793)

simple common sense
(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:25 - ID#289369)
LGB: you say "But if I did an independant scientific study of ALL factors, with control groups who didn't know they were being studied, then I'd conclude what all such credible scientific studies HAVE
condluded..namely, the full moon has little or no EFFECT on human behaviour except..."

SIR, Are you so opinionated and alien to common sense to not to see the fallacy in your ridiculous statement! My friend, you do yourself a great injustice to comment without some forethought. If you have NOT performed in-depth studies, YOU CANNOT CONCLUDE ANYTHING, unless you are a baffoon. "If I did" as you say, is NOT doing! And since you have NOT studied the situation, you are not entitled to an intelligent man's opinion. It's inconceivable you fail to see this simple logic.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:32 - ID#26793)

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:35 - ID#347447)
To a Plutonic Friend
POORBOYS: You mentioned Pluto earlier. Check out the effect of the approaching transiting Pluto conjunction with GSTD's Neptune/Sun natal conjunction. In my second Astrological Investor feature at Gold-Eagle, in the spring, I did a piece on GSTD. The record is there at Gold-Eagle for anyone to see. I believe it was a bit more than half a buck then. In two more degrees, the conjunction will be right on ( around mid to late December ) . This bodes well for gold stocks in general, as Lexington Strategic Silver Fund will also undergo a Pluto conjunction to its natal corporate Neptune. But GSTD is my favorite. Note also the continued strength in MOGN. Pluto is on its Mercury now. And of course the fabulous gold strike and trading activity in BCMD comes with Pluto exactly conjunct its Uranus ( something I predicted on the original Astrological Investor website over a YEAR ago ) . Who needs a crystal ball? I've got lots more, but these are nice current examples to contemplate, especially those related to gold.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:41 - ID#315256)
@Simple minded common
Read more closely Dipstrudle. I stated many times that good scientific studies HAVE been done. I read a paper by The great "Randy" ( excellent magician and debunker of astrology, psychic nonsense etc. ) which sites eeveral good studies and also an article by Dr. Dean Edell where he ALSO cites several studies. I havn't researched each and every one of the studies myself, but the condensed data conclusions reached certainly made a lot more "common sense" to me than some nonsense by the Moronic Astrology Charlatans.

As anyone who has ever studied logical thinking, deductive reasoning, etc knows, you CAN'T PROVE A NEGATIVE! Therefore, when Snake Oil Salesman make ridiculius claims of extraordinary ideas, the burden of proof is on THEM to prove their concepts using scientific methodology NOT on the rest of us to take their nonsense at face value.

Keep believing in Bigfoot if you like Simple minded common, as for me I prefer to live in the real world. When genuine convincing evidence is forthcoming, based on a genuinely scientific and valid study ( which is really quite easy to set up ) THEN AND ONLY THEN should anyone pay attention to nonsense like Astrology.

I don't need to do extensive research to prove that the Tooth fairy doesn't exist, because no compelling evidence has ever been produced to the contrary. Well, of course by your logic, many millions of little children believe so I guess in fact the Tooth Fairy does exist after all.

The dark ages and witch hunters would have LOVEd you "common". As Mony Pythin said "A witch a witch!! If she floats she must be a witch!" ( Cause as we all know, witches are made of wood and lighter than water )

I don

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:42 - ID#26793)
Sig: The neutral point for the past 7 years is about 27.5. Over the 14 year life of the XAU it is about 22.0. I have not decided to buy ASL. I learned today that two insiders made purchased on the day it gapped up. Also, they just issued a Convertible debenture now yielding over 10% It converts at a share price of $27 through 3/15/2003. Do you have more specs on the company?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:45 - ID#57232)
@Home - $ trading volume too high for Fed?
Donald: I think Thomas Melzer is alluding to the same thing that Laurance Meyer is referring to -- Dollar trading volume is too high for the Fed to control directly! With fewer options of control, it will be more difficult to stop a run on the dollar. In my earlier post I posed several alternatives to direct dollar intervention. Perhaps this post will stimulate others to guess what these options are. This is not my area of expertise.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:48 - ID#315256)
HepCat, Imps, Fairy's, and Small Underbridge Trolls are alive and well at Kitco site. Pluto indeed. What about all the thousands of asteroids then? At least one of which is known to be larger than PLuto?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:49 - ID#173274)
@the scene
The news of the 'shipping crisis' has been in the works for awhile. previously, the Japanese shipping firms had said that it would be paid. Apparently, that is not the case. Insofar as 'who' backs down, if the US backs down, then it is still business as usual. If we do not back down, then all bets are off. But if the past be any indication whatsoever, then the U.S. WILL back off! At least for a 'time'. All for the almighty buck! Do NOT discount the importance of 'them' upholding it either!

As for the stock markets today, no real serious damage has been done yet, BUT, some more downside action is a very real possibility. If we see another 20 point SPOO move down, to the mid to low Dec 940's, it wouldn't surprise me! Given the poor performance of the stocks recently, it 'might' very well be expected. Beyond that, look for increments of the big 20!

Gold made my 328.7 a support area, and now it became a resistance area per todays action. It is attempting to make the 326.5 to 327 area a support now, but I have serious doubts of its ability to do so. Given golds proclivity to follow silver, I think the worst for gold is yet to come. Look upon it as an even better buying opportunity! I will! One caveat though. I WILL change my current opinion given the 'action' that might cause me to do so! But right now, that IS it.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:52 - ID#255190)

Nick@Aussie - Thanks for the info on future trading. I didn't notice, though now remember it mentioned at Kitco at about the time you relate. I'm seeing spikes which are are odd times as well as round hours. My concrn with this is that if this is what a little preopen trading does, what's it going to be like when people really start using and depending on it. The spikes were 20 - 30 pts on the S&P both up and down. If these spikes proliferate and make the market lines to noisy I'm wondering if that would tend to destabilize the markets. The derivative trading ( US$60 Tnl ) is just so large in comparison to the capitalization of our stocks that even "little" swings could precipitate a trigger event, IMVH&IO ( in my very humble and ignorant opinion.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:54 - ID#26793)

(Thu Oct 16 1997 20:58 - ID#26793)
JTF, MikeHarry: Every financial leader in the world is scared to death. I get the feeling we are on the verge of the Great Unravelling. Note my post about Taiwan. They are out on the street-corner making heroin buys for their stock market.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:01 - ID#348129)
@Markets URL
NICK: All the markets are listed here
You can click on Japan and get more details.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:02 - ID#20716)
LGB: Your monumental stupidity - not ignorance which is pardonable - is quite evident in your following braying "Keep believing in Bigfoot if you like Simple minded common, as for me I prefer to live in the real world. When genuine convincing evidence is forthcoming, based on a genuinely scientific and valid study ( which is really quite easy to set up ) THEN AND ONLY THEN should anyone pay attention to nonsense like Astrology."

LGB, you are really quite an ASSHOLE! Perhaps your servile employees might be obliged to put up with your spurious arguements and inane observations, but here you will be held to account for your juvenile blustery!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:04 - ID#255190)

Another set of abbreviations for your kits:

ITYS - I Think You're Slime
IHCA - Its HepCat Again
BPTOTT - Bart, Please Take Out The Trash
NABR - Not Another Broken Record
GG,GS - Go Gold, Go Silver
GSCILYNMWHSAY - George S Cole, I like you no matter what He Says About You.

Just thought this would speed things up a bit.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:04 - ID#26793)
JTF: Although Melzer did not mention it directly he may have been referring to the FASB rules on derivatives. That rule would transfer a Fed role on banking supervision to the FASB in a way. Ain't nobody but us bankers goin' to mess with OUR banks.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:04 - ID#27251)
LGB truer words have not been spoken. Those seeking to devine the future always turn to astrology, tarat cards, or crystal balls.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:05 - ID#263259)
Y2k-2.25 years and counting O.K. More conjecture on the y2k problem. It will be irrelevent to what the market is doing in 2000. But I'll bet that T and MCI and all the rest of them will still be using gold pins, heatsinks and wires!

C.V. Compton Shaw
(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:05 - ID#342115)
Gold,the XAU, Silver and the CRB remain in both long and short term uptrends. Bonds and the major market indicies are in short term down trends and long term up trends. The dollar is in a both long and short term down trend.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:05 - ID#431263)
Nice going on GSTD, Mike! Impressive! BUT--I don't own any GSTD or BCMD! I DO OWN A LOT of VENGF ( Vengold ) however! And BDCO ( BLue Dolphin Energy ) and GV ( Goldfield ) . How much flattery would it take for you to run some of your astrological insight by these three stocks? If'n you call these three right I would be a convert of your'n forever! As the Good Book says auf'n Deutsch, "Ich glaube, hilf mein Unglauben!" Danke schoen und auf wiedersehen!

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:08 - ID#347447)

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:10 - ID#26793)
Singapore down 142 ( 7.86% )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:11 - ID#57232)
@Home - ?Spreading currency crisis?
Donald,all: How many SE Asian countries are there left who don't have problems with their currencies or markets? I'm having difficulty thinking of any not mentioned in the last few months. I guess we have not had a true run yet on Taiwan or Hong Kong.
I think we should all commend Donald for keeping up on his fact finding while some of us Kitcoites let their posts degrade into personal attacks.
We may all be witnessing the beginnings of a collapse of the entire world's currencies -- I think the next weeks to months will tell -- I for one won't begin to relax until January.
Don't forget, our future gold stock rally will eventually be caught up in the storm if the dollar tanks, because the stock markets will be next.
The biggest gold rally will be after the crisis is over! ( Look at 1929, and 1937 ) .
If we are going to have a dollar crisis, let us pray that our able A Greenspan brings the dollar down slowly.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:14 - ID#338126)
'ID numbers:

Is there any reason that most Id #'s are under 35000. I notice that ANOTHER'S id is over 60000.

Bart, how does your site assign id's?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:19 - ID#26793)

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:23 - ID#347447)
Cheescake for Cheesehead
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: Seeing as how I somehow LOVE your screen name, I will make you this offer - you get me the incorporation dates of these companies ( and PLACE of incorporation IF possible - usually State capital - tho not absolutely neccessary ) and I will run out 'scopes and give you my humble, shade-tree astrologer's opinion. I don't have them in my chart files. I do not seek your conversion, Golden Cheesehead, nor the conversion of anyone. I do not defend astrology, I simply practice it. And it does take PRACTICE. But I do appreciate your gentlemanly discourse, open mind, and reliance on the proof before your own eyes, rather than the "studies" of colorless and impotent psuedo-academics. Them's that can DO, them's that can't TEACH. And them's that don't understand DEBUNK. It don't matter none to me. I would gladly look up the dates myself, but I am juggling several projects these days and am very busy. But I won't turn you down if you meet me halfway. Moddy's is a good place to look, or S&P's. Need original incorporation dates, and please,if there are any reincorporations you must list them and their dates. I make no guarantees re reincorps or mergers because of potential inaccuracies in dates and corporate succession. e-me the info at

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:23 - ID#315256)
To "Kitco 20716@21:02, Doc LGB has the cure
Hey "Common Simple minded" re your 21:02 post. You seem to be feeling poorly. Otherwise you'd have some intelligent response rather than just the usual irrational vitriol. And since you are feeling so poorly, Dr. LGB is here ot help. Hence, here's how you can start feeling better immediately.

Firstly, look up your local Shaman in the phonebook and get a good bloodletting. Follow that up every few hours for the next 10 weeks. It'll let all the evil spirits out that have been messing with your Aura. Secondly, take Eye of Newt mixed with Batwing, make a salve, and apply to infested area. Then cast some monkey bones and take note of which Quadrant of the Astral plane they land in. Meditiate in that direction, om the meaning of the UFO visitation and Area 51 coverup, and the upcoming Y2K planetary alingment as it will impact all humanity ( not to mention it's affect on the invisible Gargoyles that influence our lives every day ) .

Follow all this with a Palmistry reading by a good psychic Astrolger, but be sure it's not on a day when YerAnus is in conjunction with your Natal PLuto.

I promise after all this you'll feel a lot better and no Idditoic Scientist should ever tell you otherwise. What do they know anyway? For that matter, what do doctors know? They only go to school for 22 years to learn their craft, much better to visit your local Holistic healer who has some excellent herbal remedy's to give ya. Have fun.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:25 - ID#315256)
Don't forget to check with Dionne Warwick on the accuracy of those charts Mike

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:26 - ID#26793)

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:28 - ID#347447)
Meant to say MOODY'S ( for corporate incorporation reference )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:31 - ID#173274)
@the scene
JTF -- Consider yourself lucky if you spot the price and time JUST before the time when gold takes off like a rocket! It won't be like anything seen yet! Outside of shorting the paper when the time comes, there won't be ANYTHING that will have made such a spectacular rise in ones 'liquidity' when it happens. However, that REAL value of the liquidity will be in 'question', paper being paper of course! Perhaps one will still be able to buy a good suit for an ounce of gold where it might also take 7K dollars to also do so. BUT, for those holders of the metals, at least they WILL be able to do so after papers demise! The whole purpose of this being 'preservation' of wealth. Perhaps a very nice 'over-reaction' in price might be had for some real gain though, throughout the 'bonfire'!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:32 - ID#26793)

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:33 - ID#287389)

What I was trying to say last post:

Is the neutral point of the xau/spot ratio .296? Hypothetically speaking, it is at this neutral point that xau stocks are market valued the same as spot gold bullion. Ergo, gold equities begin to look attractive for purchase below this neutral level.

As for Ashanti; all I know is those converts always seemed a reasonable risk since the buyer is somewhat compensated for holding the issuer's paper. Probably less risky than the common. On the other hand, US based producers are as good as any in the world. It's never easy is it?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:35 - ID#315256)
@Applied Materials
What an ignorant Buffoon I am. Here I though all along that Applied Materials went up 400% in a year because of fundamental market forces in the Semiconductor Industry, coupled with good management. If only I'd known ahead of time that it had to do with some chunks of rock millions of miles away that have a trillionth the gravitational influence on us as the Sun and Moon do.

Those ancient Astrologers must have been REALLY clever because they were able to predict influences of planets they didn't even know EXISTED yet! planets we can't even SEE today except with the most powerful telescopes! Course they didn't know it at the time.......

Hale Bopp UFO travelers move over, we have lots of new followers here on Earth eager for another "DO" to show them the way... Heaven's Gate follwers, prepare to grow!

( P.S. hint to Sheller, they don't use GOLD or MONEY in the Astral plane )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:39 - ID#26793)
JTF: The big one is China. We hear they have a warchest but there is no overt sign of devaluation yet. Others I have not heard mentioned are Laos, Cambodia and Mayanmar ( Burma ) . They do not do a lot of international trade in dollars I suppose.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:40 - ID#30116)
pyramid -- Tomorrow is NOT a Triple Witching day. Triple witching occurs four times a year. The months are March, June, September, December. Settlement day is the third Friday of the month.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:42 - ID#315256)
@ElDorado 21:31
El Dorado, what will cause Gold's rise to skyrocketdom? SInce CB's hold 20+ years supply ( at current rates of consumption/purchase ) even assuming all mines closed tomorrow ( which in fact not only won't happen but production will most likely increase ) , what are the supply/demand fundamentals that will drive the price? Today's Boomers don't even know what Gold is unless it's on their wives ear or finger.

I too think Gold will rise, but the fundamentals for astronomical rise aren't there. Who will the buyers be? You believe Governments will allow faith in paper to be completely destroyed? Along with all their political power? No way, not unless we have a complete and total societal breakdown or nuclear war, in which case fuel and canned food would be a lot handier to own than Gold.

Don't get me wrong, I'm bullish on the yellow for now but curious as to why you think it'll soar to the stars ( no pun intended Sheller )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:44 - ID#26793)
Sig: Ok, I see your point. Yes, I have been using .30. The figures I gave you were the midrange numbers between highs and lows over time.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:51 - ID#30116)
It looks like $322 is the line to break. If it does...

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:56 - ID#26793)
Yahoo may have been giving bad numbers on Singapore. It now shows down only two. When you click on the symbol it shows a low for the day of 1662, a difference of 140 points. Error or rescue? Did anyone else see the reading?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 21:56 - ID#30116)
Trendline support is 100. If we slice through this one, support might come in around 90, but if it does, then this is one sick market...............

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:00 - ID#287279)
Originally posted in July
Year 2000 Hits The Bottom Line -- Companies find they can't fund all projects from their existing IS budgets
By Bruce Caldwell
Year 2000 expenditures are reaching the bottom line. Several companies say they will cut corporate earnings to account for the cost of the millennium fix as they find they can't fund their entire year 2000 projects from existing IS budgets. Two research reports indicate thatmany more companies will have to go the same route.
In its annual report, Equifax Inc., a $1.9 billion financial services company in Atlanta, deducted 1 cent per share from earnings to account for its 1996 year 2000 spending- and stated that additional year 2000 spending in 1997 and 1998 would trim four to five cents per share. Year 2000 costs ate up $1 million in the first quarter this year alone.
Southern New England Telecommunication Corp. expects to spend $15
million to $20 million this year on its year 2000 fix, which means cutting its earnings for the year from $3.20 to as low as $2.90, estimates Scott Wright, a telecom analyst at Argus Research Corp. in New York. "That's not chicken feed," says Wright.
Because SNET's year 2000 spending exceeds its IS budget, the expenditures
will impact earnings, acknowledges Richard LeFave, CIO at the New Haven,
Conn., telecom company. "But our intent was to address year 2000 [issues]
up front," he notes. "Companies are saying they don't want Wall Street taking them apart in 1998 because they didn't tackle this sooner."
Indeed, stock analysts say it's not companies like SNET and Equifax that
worry them. "Most analysts will see that companies have a handle on it and will not change their rating on the company," says Terrence Tierney, an equity analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. in New York.
Tierney warns that if a company doesn't have a good handle on the problem
going into 1998, the impact on earnings could be more than a few cents. Late starters on the year 2000 problem will face rising costs and increased risk of legal liabilities associated with the failure to make sure their company's computer systems are capable of handling dates in the next millennium. In a recent J.P. Morgan report titled The Year 2000 Problem-It's Worse Than We Thought, the firm adjusts its opinion of year 2000 from "big deal, not a disaster" to "disaster" because so many companies and government agencies have yet to begin working on the problem. The report says that last year, using an estimate that total year 2000 conversion costs would be $200 billion, J.P. Morgan calculated that 99.6% of the cost could have been met by IS budgets. Now, using a revised estimate of $600 billion, J.P. Morgan estimates IS budgets will be able to cover just 60.2% of the total expense. There are ways to make room for year 2000 fixes in the IS budget, however. The results of a worldwide benchmark study released last week by Meta Group Inc., a Stamford, Conn., consulting firm, shows that 90% of the 873 participating companies expect to spend 25% of their IS budgets on year
2000 projects. But instead of calling for additional funds, a lot of that money can be culled from existing IS funds, says Howard Rubin, the Meta Group research fellow who conducted the study.
According to the study, 30% of IS spending is slated for non-value producing activity, such as maintenance of systems that don't help generate revenue. "People wondering how to fund the thing can get smart and start to improve their effectiveness," says Rubin.
Some early starters may be able to keep most or all of their year 2000
spending contained in the IS budget. Chase Manhattan Corp. in New York,
for example, expects its IS budget will be able to absorb nearly all of the bank's estimated $250 million in year 2000 conversion costs.
Similarly, at First Union Corp., total year 2000 costs are estimated to be $42 million, an amount that can be absorbed by the IS budget with some juggling of IS staff responsibilities, says Richard Alden, business application manager for special projects at the Charlotte, N.C., bank. "It's a big cost," he says, "but there are things we would have been doing anyway," such as purchasing additional DASD hardware, that will have usefulness beyond the year 2000 project.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:01 - ID#364147)
As Donald posted: Singapore down 126.32 ( 7% ) ....Quite a move for the "rock of Gibraltar" of S.E.Asian!...

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:02 - ID#364147)
I see Donald's correction on Singapore....

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:02 - ID#315256)
@Panda, XAU
It's only because of the CB rumors/facts ( depending on who you listen to ) of the 200 tonne sale that XAU is hurtin. The blip on high volume that we saw a couple weeks ago, was like the proverbial "Foreshock" ( for those of us in CA ) , to the bigger quake to come. A couple more rounds of Foreshocks, and then we'll see the Big move.

BTW, I'll be working on a new chart soon to track Earthquake activity and correlate it to precious metals prices. I'm sure it will rank high on this site as a valid market indicator a la the Moon and the price of Platinum vs. Drachmas.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:03 - ID#20716)
LGB: Now we all know what your acronym "LGB" means: "LAST GREAT BAFFOON"

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:06 - ID#315256)
@Shek, Y2K
Yes however, I find it interesting that ( speaking og Gold & Platinum ) my Gold & Platinum cards with a Y2K and beyond expiration, have been a "non" problem for the banking institutions who have already fixed their validation software and databases to handle them.

Like a plethora of Bulls being a bearish indicator, I find a plethora of Y2K articles now, to be a good sign that experts like yourself will have this problem solved with minimal market impact in the next 26 months.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:07 - ID#30116)
LGB -- There is just no @#%@#$%$ interest in the metal stocks now. PERIOD.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:07 - ID#315256)
Kitco 20716
Now if you'll just elaborate and tell us what a "BAFFOON" is, we'll all find you REALLY clever! ( Get that bloodletting SOON.. )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:07 - ID#287279)
Stocks Tumble on Disappointing Earnings

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:08 - ID#431216)
Panda,Thanks for the chart.Although it's not
unusual for a market to return to the point of
breakout it still and wait.Yikes!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:09 - ID#26793)
Ted: I am glad you are not suffering from KPSS and confirmed a different high number in Singapore. I wonder if it was real.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:10 - ID#287279)
Thanks for your complement. I, however, am not an expert. The more I learn about the problem ( from hands on experience ) the more concerned I become.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:14 - ID#431263)
Mike--Thanks for the offer! Will e-mail you ASAP!

To ALL--I know I've become more than just a little obnoxious about this Asian panic thing, BUT GOTT IM HIMMEL CHECK OUT WHAT'S HAPPENING OVER THERE TONIGHT--

Japan @ 17,400 DOWN -309 ( -1.75% )
Singapore DOWN -126 ( -7.00%!!!!!! )
S. Korea DOWN ( -1.52% )
Taiwan DOWN -133 ( -1.67% )
Malaysia DOWN ( -1.11% )
BRAZIL DOWN -252 ( -1.97% ) ( Could this thing be spreadin to
Latin America and the US? )
I know how ridiculous this stuff sounds to some of you trashtalkers online, but each day the facts are becoming clearer--the world sits on the precipice of a cliff of DEBT DESTRUCTION SO HUGE THAT NOTHING CAN STOP IT--NOT EVEN THE WORLD'S CENTRAL BANKS!! My greatest fear is that we are entering the nightmare world of Bob Prechter and the Elliot Wave Hyper-Deflationists!! If THIS scenario is being played out then the ONLY thing that will be worth anything will be G-O-L-D!! It may be valued at only $35/oz or less after the deflation and dollar destruction has run its course, but compared to everything else, as it has for thousands of years, GOLD will be left standing as the only real store of value on which to rebuild western civilization! So in the final analysis, who really cares what gold is valued at in terms of paper promises! GOLD IS
THE ULTIMATE AND ONLY SUBSTANTIVE STORE OF VALUE aand will be the most highly prized reference point for value whether the paper promises are deflated into oblivion or inflated into oblivion!! Just BUY IT, STORE IT AND FORGET IT!! UNTIL YOU NEED IT!! And if the past is really prologue, you'r gonna need it SOON!!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:14 - ID#57232)
Donald: According to Bloomberg World Equity Indices, ( posted 9:46EDT )

Singapore Straits Times Industrials is 1802.48,-1.76 at 21:15,
down -0.1%.

Japan Nikkei is: 17707.49, 0.0 at 21:40, unchanged

Taiwan: 7864.61, -113.20 at 21:41, -1.67%

Someone to the rescue, I guess.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:15 - ID#339320)
JTF 14:00: ......."I hope you didn't get the wrong idea from my challenge to ANOTHERabout the gold sales to keep oil prices down."

Oh my, no! Your comments and "challenge" re: ANOTHERs gold/oil relations was very well founded. I was refering to the hecklers and groupies in the peanut gallery. One must always question authority..........I just wished a few certain others could contribute
as rationally as you. Enjoyed your sailing post. I built a big big cat about 15 years ago and took her around the world.....and ran into one of your whales off the Galapagos. Not much damage.....but still dont know who was more frightened ( yes, I SAW into his eyes ) .
PS: With all the cybertrash accumulating on this site, one learns to edit quickly......but always stop on JTF posts. Thanks.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:15 - ID#336297)
Just a quick response to Allen, post at 21:04.
For gods sake son, you have got to get out more often.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:16 - ID#173274)
@the scene
LGB -- For one thing, You don't know what 'they' own or don't own anymore! They may or may not actually own what they pysically have 'on hand'. Consider this having been going on for years and years. Besides, all it would take is more demand than THEY are willing to provide, even given the first scenario being horse-puckey. The bottom line WILL BE in the price of gold! The 'news WILL BE later and after the fact, as usual. So, what's the problem? Every 'commodity' experiences a bottom somewhere. Generally at or near the point when it just 'seems' that no one wants it anymore. So what else is new. As for the stocks at this time, They 'ain't' broke yet. And this would be a very opportune time to put a bit of scare and correction in them. Not undeserved, mind you, but VERY needful, if nothing else. Unfortunately at this time, there are many negatives out there that can drive them virtually into the ground, should it even BEGIN to get out of hand! A close hand to the vest will have to be played here by the powers, but expect them to be looking at the bonds and dollar more than the stocks. A match for the funeral pyre may have been lit. All they have to do is pee on it at this time. Now, do they have enough beer in the bladder to do so? The 64 Billion dollar question!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:16 - ID#287279)
Citicorp attacks telecoms firms for millennium mess

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:18 - ID#20716)
LGB: LAST GREAT BAFFOON - YOU ask what it means? You should know as you just used it in a very recent post: "LGB ( @Applied Materials ) ID#315256:
What an ignorant Buffoon I am" SO TRUE! SO TRUE! In fact that's the smartest thing you said all evening!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:20 - ID#30116)
Greg -- What bothers me, is the CPI numbers. These bozos are telling everyone that the CPI is up 0.2%, BUT! If you saw my post earlier this A.M., gasoline, energy, fuel oil, airline tickets were up between 1.3 to 2.2 % for the month of September. No inflation there! Must be those 'dropping' computer prices off-setting the other items. Ya, like retired folks by PCs... Maybe a few percent do, but I doubt that 80% do. They by things like food, fuel, and shelter....

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:21 - ID#286199)
Who's buying?
The money supply continues to increase. M2 up more than 5% over last quarter. Where is all that green going?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:24 - ID#315256)
Can't say I disagree El. That's why I'm on the sidelines. I wonder what would happen if a true margin call meltdown started to take place.... I'm a "long run" investor, still young enough, so it'd be a buy opportunity for me, but HWNE to buy in, that's the million dollar question..meanwhile, I think Silver & platinum have potential no matter what scenario occurs?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:24 - ID#31868)

Golden Cheesehead

Whoever you are, I could not agree with you more.

Gold is the only store of value the world has ever known.

I concur wholeheartedly - get rid of the counterfeit play money and buy metal.

Talk and paper are worthless - golds value speaks for itself.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:25 - ID#57232)
Cmax - Great post about your sailing experiences. You have done what I have dreamed about. My resources for that kind of experience seem to vanish -- into my kids' college education!
I've never seen "the whites of a whales eyes" before -- we didn't get that close! Good thing whales are generally peaceful around boats smaller than they are!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:27 - ID#315256)
@Kitco 20714
Hey 20714, I can draw only so much amusement and waste only so much bandwidth on the feeble minded among us. Hence, I can no longer cast my pearls before a swine. Pontificate mindless insults all you like, I won't respond, however, don't forget to get that bloodletting, I'm worried about your health.....

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:28 - ID#26793)
Taiwan down 300 ( 3.75% ) From Yahoo, I hope not an error.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:29 - ID#315256)
@Gold, Tolerant1
Gold Gold the musical fruit.........

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:30 - ID#30116)
There I go again! Thinking that reality has anything to do with this!

Here's a question; How much would a new Ford Explorer cost today with with a 'mid' level option package? How much would the same vehicle have cost five years ago? Spare me the 'technology' improvements BS argument. The vehicle is still a chunk of pressed out steel. The point is this, what is your replacement cost of a common mass produced item today versus five years ago. An item that you NEED.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:34 - ID#20716)
LGB: LAST GREAT BUFFOON, YOU would be pathetic if you were not so laughable! I suggest you continue to spew you pompous nonsense to your employees -- they, unfortunately have to eat you S---!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:36 - ID#57232)
@Home - CPI
panda -- I'm virtually positive the CPI numbers are cooked. I don't know exactly how, but I do recall something about housing expenses being based on what a typical rental is going at, not a home. I think a comon theme is that if the book cookers can find any cheaper substitute for a fairly expensive item in the index, that is used instead. Eventually, either the powers that be will run out of any cheaper ideas, or the public will suddenly wake up one day, and realize they have been had. The best indicator is one's own core living expenses ( better if averaged with others ) . I don't have a clue why education expenses for ones children don't get factored in, but it's a good thing they aren't. Going up at over 10% per year! That bubble will collapse too late for me to benefit.
My best guess is that the real rise in the cost of living is roughly 5-6% annually right now.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:36 - ID#401237)
Who will do it?
Shek: The millennium mess - They cant find enough people to work on it, and when they do they have to pay them a fortune. No one wants to work on it. It is a drag. Day in and Day out, hour after hour of redundant work on outdated systems and billions and billions of miss dated bits of boring information. The people who can get this job done are all needed in more creative and exciting areas - they would rather work there for half of the money. The Wintel system has this problem the Apple Mac System does not - think about it.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:41 - ID#401237)
Asia in the CAN
Japan,Tawain, HongKong down Big time.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:42 - ID#431216)
Panda and JTF,It's hard to ignore anecdotal
evidence of inflation when the Boz are
publishing these ridiculous looking numbers
i.e.the CPI.Isn't it true that there are a lot
of dollars out there,Deriviatives etc.,chasing
fewer goods...They'll play with gold now and
work with it later.IMHO

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:44 - ID#57232)
@Home -- Bloomberg Asia Markets prices
Donald,all: Here's Bloomberg's site for the Asian Markets. May be more reliable than Yahoo.


For some reason can't post this site directly.
Just add a lower case h at the *

Taiwan down 4%, other Asian markets ok or up.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:47 - ID#364147)
@ Panda
Hi Panda! Do you really think our gov'ment would LIE to us??? Sh!t I thought it was a mirage that everyting seemed to be gettin much more expensive every year ( month ) ...Think I'll pass on the Ford Explorer and wait until it gets cheaper....

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:50 - ID#386276)
Could I email you a bmp chart on amex,nyse,nasdaq a/d - it is a 10d m/a swing chart that shows us leaning over short term abyss.
I have'nt been able to work out how to post charts here.
My email is .au.
If you want send me an email and I'll attach it and return to you for you to post.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:50 - ID#57232)
Greg: Exactly! -- I'm talking about current cost of living. Wait till all of those foreign US dollars come home to roost! While they stay in Russian mattresses, or in foreign Central Bank reserves, they can't do us any harm. We've got to get off the world dollar standard if we ever expect to solve our inflation problems at home. Let's hope it doesn't happen overnight! Then we'll be like Mexico in 1995!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:53 - ID#30116)
@Credit thoughts...
I often think about my credit cards and the way I use them. I use them as a cash substitute. Something like forty percent of the 'card' users out there carry a continual monthly balance. Upon reflection, I realized a long time ago, that I use the credit card as a cash substitute because I would have to carry too much cash around! If you hold a hundred Dollars in your hand, you think that you have a 'lot' of money in your hand. :- ) )

First, let's fill up the gas tank, then go food shopping. Oh, we need some 'personal' stuff from the local chain drug store/film store. Hmmm, oops I ran out of cash half way through the food shopping! Damn! Where's that ATM machine!

Sure, technology has made the quality of our lives better, but what the hell happened to our money? We are now being conditioned to use 'cards' as 'money'. What's next?

I saw a news story that was quite interesting. It was about an animal shelter person who wanted to have a law passed so that all animals would an electronic 'tag' injected under their skin. The purpose? So that the owner of the animal could be notified if the animal was found. Hmmmm, let's extend that idea to children.... No, I'll leave that one right there. It's bad enough that we have IOUs as 'money'.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:56 - ID#57232)
@Home Bloomberg Online now offline
To all: Now I can't access Bloomberg at all. Odd

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:58 - ID#431216)
JTF,It's almost impossible to gauge the extent
of the US dollars currently ciculating in
various deriavative markets entering domestic
markets ...into assets.Whether ,then,the CPI.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 22:59 - ID#424147)
hepRAT must be on the night shift at Burger King this week by the timing of his posts and it takes many flips to pay for that apartment ( A ) har har har. What an amerikan success story spending hour after hour at kitco trying to get attention by his pathetic repetitive attacks on highly respected people such as George S Cole ( har har har ) learned his writing skills at the school newspaper---what a radical dude! living in the burbs,flippin burgers and hanging out at kitco trying to make others as small as he is ( 5 feet 6 inches ) and that's probably with elevator shoes--whatta man! he's "hep" he's soooo cooool

Yellow Jacket
(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:00 - ID#4289)
Does reading entrails count?
LGB: I have to agree with you tonight. Mike Sheller is going off the deep end with casting horoscopes based on incorporation dates. I don't remember my corp. crying when I spanked it as it was born and I don't think it will respond to lunar cycles either ( don't even know if it's a boy or girl ) . GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: Zurich Minor Axiom XII: "If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich." Brush up on the Zurich axioms at Thanks go to aurator for this one.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:00 - ID#30116)
@rant continued...
TED -- Yes, that Explorer will be getting cheaper... After Ford starts making them in China... Assembled in Mexico of course... In the meantime, Intel has taken a whack or two and now the semi-conductor sectors book-to-bill has slide some. You mean everbody doesn't want at least five personal computers to increase their personal productivity??? What I want to know is, will a computer help... Well, there could be young eyes viewing this..... Never mind.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:01 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Panda -- IF you must use a card for the everyday purchases, I would think that a debit card would be much better as it is withdrawn directly from you checking account. Your savings account can be used for overdrafts also I think. I'm not a believer in the 'cashless' society, but in lieu of wracking up interest charges.....

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:08 - ID#57232)
I think Bloomberg is having problems -- I use that site all the time.
Checked Hong kong all ordinaries - up 1.x%
I think we've worried enought tonight.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:08 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Yellow Jacket, LGB and others -- I think you may critique Mike Shellers, etc., methodology when you present your own here for 'critique'! Fair is 'fare'!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:13 - ID#30116)
Nick -- What browser are you using?

To upload file to Kitco;

First you must put them in to an acceptable format such as a .gif or .tif file.

Then you send the file to

If you're using Netscape as your browser, click on File and then click on Upload from the pull down box. You'll get a directory box. Find the file that you want to upload and then click on it. That should send it on its' way.

To post the graphic, go to the posting page and add the file name to the box at the bottom of the page. Most of the time, the first letter of your file has been capitalized. The file name is case sensitive.

Post your comments as usual, and your graphics will be included in your posting.

I don't know if my el-cheapo graphics package will convert .bmp files to whatever. If this doesn't work, yell. I'll e-mail you.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:15 - ID#33180)
Bernatz dort encore
ID346140: Mais attention. Il vaut mieux parler anglais chez Kitco. Il y a un an, j'ai repondu a Bernatz en francais, et on m'a attaquee. Il y a des gens ici qui craignent la conspiracie quand on ne parle pas anglais. La battaille durait la plupart d'une journee. On a fini par rester en anglais, sauf Bernatz, qui a cree son franglais individu.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:15 - ID#30116)
Eldorado -- I don't carry a balance. I don't spend what I don't have. This tends to keep me out of trouble! :- ) )

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:19 - ID#30116)
Good night all. Dow 10,000 tomorrow and gold to ???? -325. Beats the hell out of me..................

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:20 - ID#386276)
Panda I use MS explorer which hasn't got an internal ftp like netscape.
Hopefully MS explorer 4 will have one. I've tried to set an external ftp and what a drama so ditched it.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:20 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Cmax -- That sailing adventure must have been FUN! At least to the point of the whale. Congratulate youself on it 'cause not many can do it! Would have loved to have been there!

Yellow Jacket
(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:24 - ID#4289)
Re: earlier posts
PANDA: As long as gold trades in a narrow range, the holders will not panick and will not sell below a profitable point above their buy-in point, and the buyers will not worry that they'll miss the gold bull by the horns if they don't buy at market and continue to wait for the price to fall to their buy-in target. The result: low trading volumes on gold shares. It's very simple. As for the CPI, I agree. I expected the rise to have been about 0.5% and 0.4% for the core. My only explanation is a larger than normal lag in effect between higher oil prices and the CPI. Is it possible that the higher PPI rise ( I had expected that rise in the August numbers ) is a portend of a high October CPI? We'll see how that holds up come next month.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:26 - ID#57232)
@Home re: Astrology
Eldorado: Thank you for introducing the voice of reason into the discussion of Astrology. I think it is better for the critics to present their own case, instead of just criticize. Perhaps they can choose a more neutral topic, such as Arch Crawford's succes rate. People pay for his advice for some reason, as well as for Mike Sheller's advice. JP Morgan used an Astrologer ( I've forgotten the name ) , and so does one of the richest Chinese in Hong Kong.
I for one do not understand any of the complex Astrological descriptions that Astrologers use. I have tried to some degree, but you have to realize that this is an art going back thousands of years, with many different types of Astrology. It is much to comlicated for a simple minded Physicist like me. What Mike S has done ( after years of digging and trial and error I suspect ) is find something that works for him.
I know there is something to what he does so I do not criticize. There are too many succesful financial Astrologers out there. I would suggest that those who do not wish to believe Astrology has no solid scientific foundation, simply wait for the time to be convinced. It will come. They will all be at some disadvantage because they waited. But so are the doubting Thomas's who did not believe that antioxidants such as vit E and vit C prevent heart disease. They die sooner. So will I, because I only figured the connection out two years ago, and it is now Time/Newsweek headlines. My point is: Never totaly disbelieve anything, because someday you will miss something really important. What if we believed like virtually every modern westerner that gold is essentially worthless?

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:28 - ID#57232)
@Home - good night everyone
Goodnight -- Please -- lets talk about constructive things! Aurator we need you!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:30 - ID#386276)
Japanese interests were buying gold overnight and selling was continuing to come out of London and Australia.: Quotes

Also for the chart buffs:

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:33 - ID#431263)
Amen brother Panda! As I posted once before, I've got fifteen of those little plastic printing presses in my possession and a couple more on the way, with a total credit line of over $150,000.00! If'n I was desperate to get in on all the hot stock action I keep hearin about from all my rich yuppie friends, and if'n I wasn't so smart, I'd max 'em all out with cash advances at 5.9% for 6 months and invest it all in the big bull market money machine! If'n I couldn't make 5.9% on my newly created cybercash in sight of 6 hrs. much less 6 months I would be shocked into quittin my day job and playin the market full time like the dentist I saw on CNBC tonight! Why work when you can BORROW your way to riches in less time than you can say "CHARGE IT!" Gott im Himmel! No wonder AG is scared scheissless! Me and 50,000,000 other boomers control the money supply and there's nothing he can do about it! Wait till half of 'em default and go bankrupt during the next market debacle! That's when you'll be glad you listened to the voices of reason here at Kitco!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:38 - ID#364147)
@ the end
Good night all........

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:39 - ID#173274)
@the scene
JTF -- I really don't know a thing about it, but if some have found it to be useful, who am I to discount it? What's the problem with listening to what they 'hear/see'? Is another non-harping viewpoint so 'awful'? I don't think so! In fact, I want to hear it! Hepcat. Get the message? NON-HARPING!!!!!! Mike Sheller, make yourself at home here, as far as I'm concerned! By the way, I DO NOT listen to HARPING. My eyes and ears somehow tend to close right up! As it should be!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:40 - ID#33180)
golden names
aurator: Thanks for your kind words last night. Auroelf didn't dissappear. She shortened her name to elf, because so many Kitcoites were having trouble spelling auroelf. I got every variation from aurowolf to awrful, so off came the golden part.

After my own, I find your country the next most beautiful in the world. In 1990 I spent three weeks visiting all the gardens I could from Aukland to Wellington and Christchurch to Dunedin while my husband lectured in New Zealand. Some day I hope we can return.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:45 - ID#411259)
..... With Quite a Long One .....

Regarding talk of CB sales, why they effect the market, who is selling, and why:

I reported last night that a client ( worth $100 million +++ ) just returned from Europe and offered the possibility that France would be a seller of gold. This was just a supposition of his, as is my own belief that Germany will be ( has been ) a big seller this year.

Some have asked where I come by this information. For the most part, my contention that European CBs are selling is based on a lot of information from a variety of different sources. Some of those sources can be found in the links on Kitco's Market Update page. For those of you that have never followed the FNW link, get in the habit of getting the mid session ( about 10 am PST ) and the closing report ( about 2:30 PST ) of NY Metals. These reports can spend a lot of words to say very little - like some others on this page. There are 60+ brokers at my company and we all have our own sources in the markets. We are constantly comparing information to see if we can separate the chaff. Together, the whole, represents hundred of man-years of experience in these markets. Additionally, I have my own sources on the trading floors and in markets abroad. When taken in total, and viewed with an experienced eye, one can often formulate an accurate forecast of events to come.

All my talk of CB sales is based on this method of deduction. I have not stated definitively that France is the seller. I still think Germany is the culprit. As for the why, I have posted here many times in the past my reasons for believing that European CB sales will continue through the end of the year, so I will sum up with as few words as possible tonight.

The EMU has certain deficit to GDP ratio requirements for all member nations. Some countries are having problems meeting those requirements. They take a look around and ask themselves "how can we raise some quick cash? Aha! Look at this gold we have been sitting on for all these decades with no return. Let's dump some now and get the books spruced up. We can always buy it back later, probably at a lower price."

There is no mass manipulation to control the price of gold. Nations can't even mount a good conspiracy within their own borders, let alone cooperate in a massive multinational price fixing scheme. As for supply, when considered, supply should be the chief reason for gold's demise. There are massive amounts of gold in every country on earth. Mining techniques are getting more efficient with each passing day. Cost of production is dropping. There is more gold above ground than at any point in history.

Gold is mined for accumulation. It is refined and then stuck in a vault. Very little gold is consumed compared to that which is stored. Please do not try to refute this by including mint production of bullion coins in consumption statistics. Gold coins are stored forever. They just change hands. My father e-mailed an interesting quote that has some bearing here. It is from "My New Fortune", by Andrew Tobias, Random House, 1997: "Digging for gold is a waste. After all, gold's value lies in its scarcity. Digging up more only makes it less scarce."

Allen ID#246224: posted an excellent summation on why a country would sell gold. For simplicity sake I will reposted here:

"CB gold sales, to my mind, are always motivated by self interest of the country involved. I can hardly believe in a world embracing, centrally controlled scheme to suppress gold. To me that doesn't jibe with national sovereignty and power. So I must ask what is this nation's interest in selling its hard earned reserves. It seems to me that Italy's interest is plainly a matter of inclusion in the EMU confab. If that is so, I'm interested to know if their position and need for selling action was public knowledge for some time. If not then there may be other CB's which might do similar things in order to enter the EMU on the first round. This should be an interesting quarter if that's the case."

Additioaly, MoreGold ( @CBs ) ID#348286: Who obviously has his nose to the wind posted this:
"A certain entity has been very active on the sell side the last few weeks. They have been previously linked with CB sales. Rumour is they are acting for a CB again, and this has been mentioned more than once in the media. This fits in with the sluggish trading, and inability to rally, very similar to the conditions just before the last announcement of the Aussi sale, and the downward spiral. This market is super secretive you have to get your info wherever you can, and do a lot of reading in between lines."

The information is there, for anyone who looks without an agenda. If you just accept what you find, deductive logic and experience can take you most of the way. I will state again for the hundredth time, I don't care where it goes. I trade both sides of the market; long and short. I have been short gold for the better part of a year, only making long trades in the whites. By the way, I missed a fantastic short in silver last week, anyone could see it would try to fill the gap. I'm looking for another .10 down. If that holds, I'll look at long silver.

General ( To RJ re: Nick Vecchio ) ID#365216:
The term you used would best describe Nick. He is one of the straightest shooters I have ever met. Not give to excitability or rash moves. He is quietly competent and very experienced. He has been with my firm for 15 or 16 years. You've got a good broker there. Good luck.

Bernatz de Ventadorm-
Have you never HEARD of the HERD mentality, by dam? Those who HEAR all is up tend to HERD to the source. This, my fine and wise friend, is what is known as "HEARD MENTALITY." An alternative explanation is that I simply cannot proofread my own stuff. I know what I wrote and what I am trying to say, and I often see the correct word right there where the incorrect word lies.

Where have you been? You are exactly what this site needs in these time of petty blowhards with no money telling the rest how fullofshit we all are. Please, your observations are needed now

Nick -@ The Jabberstock-
Inspired brilliance. Your posts have been some of the most informative and friendly posts this site has seen. I am very interested in your sea going days. I would like to ask you of some your times at sea during great storms. This would be an enormous help on a project I am currently working on. Please send your e-mail address to if you would be willing to take some time to share your experiences. Thanks, in advance. Keep posting, mate. The late shift needs more souls and your presence has made the late nights at Kitco vastly more interesting.

You didn't miss anything at all. I posted a couple weeks ago that silver looked like it was going down. Whenever a range of trading is skipped by a big move, the market has a tendency to go back and "fill the gap". This is a rule of thumb but again, only another of the many patterns that these market give us. The potential for a test of the highs of February was a strong possibility, so I had no courage of my convictions to short at 5.30. I am still feeling a bit stung by the 100,000 ounces I shorted at 4.78, which I will bail out of ASAP. If silvers settles in the gap, I'll start looking at longs.

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:46 - ID#396137)
Besides your charts, I like the explanation you gave for posting graphics.
Since you take things step by step, even my feeble mind can understand.

Kindly explain to me via email, how something I copy on the scanner to
mail looks like a normal size when in a file but when sending a jpeg
via email, it often arrives, and appears, larger than intended.
How can I determine the size of the jpeg in a file ( ie. chart, letter? )

Thanks in advance for your help.



Kahunna Grande
(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:49 - ID#27454)
Loco Hills PB,NM
From my view of the goober patch. Cotton is in so the neighbor should be on a good mood. Maybe his wife will stop playing around with the golf pro. God I love small townes9 ( ;{ ) ) . Comanche moon is overhead and a hundred fifty years ago they would be heading to Mexico to rape, pillage and steal things. You know, Democrats. What a peacefull evening. Like the metals. Watch April. From a chubby guy in the grease patch. A prediction. No dates so dont start shorting. DJIA will trade flat till after christmas. Market will start to rise but if it breaks its previous high it wont be by much. Sucker rally. As it gets colder the market will begin to slide. Slowly first. By the end of April look for the DJIA at 7600. Dont see gold doing much in the meantime. Maybe in march when the comanche moon shines again across the enchanted sandhills we will know more. Don't know why but the mokingbirds are still here. Even see a monarch butterfly. Most went through here two weeks ago. Even a lot of doves. Strange year. Strange year. somthing is fixin to happen. But I think it will be after the new year. Old dead comanches are restless!!

(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:56 - ID#364121)
@camp david
I just returned this evening as usual a former intelligence officer.
All I^ve heard is how much everybody has in the stock market
and buy dips. I am telling you the truth the end is near than you would
ever think. With the way conversation goes, you would think 90%
have the wealth and 10% are the poor! The masses are always wrong
and this time they will be big time. A global economy means global spending. With the false liquidity that exists the sky isithe limit. When
the nobel peace prize is given for derrivatives it is definitely time to
head for the exits. Do you know that many of the average investor made
money in derrivatives?

Yellow Jacket
(Thu Oct 16 1997 23:57 - ID#4289)
How did "panick" get a k??? It's getting late for me!
ELDORADO: I can't help thinking like an engineer ( 'cause I are one ) and relying on facts and predictions based on trends ( call them informed hunches ) . That's my methodology. Boring, but overall fairly effective. I think astrology is amusing to a point when applied to people, but to claim that it can affect a corporation ( even if you use the argument that corporations are run by people ) is ridiculous. Having said that, anyone wanting to follow astrological advise in investing is welcome to do so at their peril. Golden dreams, everyone.