RJ You lived by the sword you died by the sword

RJ You lived by the sword you died by the sword

Donald: Your Sun Oct 12 post was wonderful. Talk about history
curving around on itself. Sorry it took me so long to read it.
Your friend, Meph

To ALL: USAgold's website - 10/17/97 market update. Mentions that Germany's rate hike may force a US dollar rate hike ( probably minimal ) . Apparently the currency market thought so too, because the dollar went up relative to Germany and Japan today, I'm told. This approach would also fit with Greenspans recent concerns about inflation coming back. Since the dollar must be kept steady at all costs, the Fed may be forced to do this. Dollar trading volume is well over 1 Trillion dollars per day, so there is no way the Fed can control the dollar with direct intervention, if things go sour. At least the LT dollar fall will be more gradual with higher rates.
USAgold also mentions COMEX silver stocks down to a 12 year low with Japan being a big silver buyer this year ( 1,032 tonnes since Jan? ) .
Also, comment noted from a New York banker that central banks are reluctant to sell any more gold.
Excellent site! I am going to check frequently. Can anyone confirm Japan as a big silver buyer this year?

Peter 23:48: Forget it! Censorship,bs,facts,statistics,feelings,hepcat,
LGB,George,Stradmaster,Donald,JTF,Ted,Allen,ME,et al. We're all part of
this bull session.In or out you decide,but don't whine.PS..I'm more full
of Caca de Toro than anyone.Boo,October 31st-Jan 1st.

Don't leave us as MOST here appreciate what you have to say!! Good night ALL ( almost ) .....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

sig: I think you are right that the market may rally again. We survived the 1987 anniversary remarkably well -- and the pattern never repeats exactly the same does it? Always some variation on the theme. Maybe during this pending rally it will be different -- gold stock rally too?
Are we just going up to DOW near 8300, or new highs? My guess -- no new highs, yet.
Jan 1998 looks like a fairly clear turning point for gold. Now India liberalizing the purchase of gold, with gold accounts I recall from several months ago, as well as lower costs of purchase. Wait till all of those hopping mad SE Asians recoup their losses. They will be much more careful with paper money this time -- I don't know who they are madder at - the western world, or their own leaders.

Donald: Thank you for Sunday Oct 12th 6:51. Histor will curve back upon
itself.

Donald:Thanks for your Sunday October 12th 06:51. History may curve back
on itself.

Goodnight all from thousands of miles west of Ted. That is goodnight to everyone who does not hide behind a changing ID.
Aurator -- you outdid yourself last night. I enjoyed your posts immensely -- I made it to the end -- dont' watch the "boob tube" anymore! Maybe that's why! Don't miss Nick ( @Aussie ) posts today -- His dad is an excellent poet!

Steve - Perth 20:33 post: Should we burst the asset price bubble? This is a VERY interesting article. Austrailians are asking the same questions about their market.

Are there criteria for determining whether the bursting of the bubble will
be costly, particularly when there has been leveraged buying of assets?

All the issues warrant discussion, but the last is particularly interesting
because it concerns the stability of the financial system and is particularly
relevant right now.

What if banks decided to lend money to individuals, secured by that
individual's shareholding?

Say a bank gives Jane $20,000 because the bank knows that Jane has
$20,000 worth of BHP shares.

But, say Jane bought those BHP shares in June when they were worth $20
and now they are worthmarket
galloping out of control.

Since the release of the Telstra share offer, Suncorp-Metway and the
Commonwealth Bank have announced they would lend to Telstra investors,
using the Telstra shares as equity.

Other banks are likely to follow.

So what if thousands of "mums and dads" borrow from the banks to buy
Telstra shares and the sharemarket booms, but Telstra shares don't? Any
move by the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates to stop the booming market
could have a major impact on the finances of those "mums and dads" and the financial system.
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971018/business/business10.html

This incredible leveraging of the world finacial markets has created a financial bublethe size of which is hard to fantom. I have been thinking about my post last night, where I began some rough ( very rough ) calcualtions, I realized that even if I was 50% to 75% off we were still dealing with an awesome number.

Thats it! Plastic is the new commodity behind all currency. Have you ever thought of how much oil it takes to make all of those credit cards. 200,000,000* people X 10 cards/ person X 2.13 X 3.38 = 143,988,000,000 sq. in. or 1,000,000,000 sq. ft. or 23,000 Acres. Price of oil will go to $40 when they start making the YR 2000 Cards. By the way the cards are 1/32  thick someone wants to figure the volume.

If we put them end to end they will stretch 676,000,000 ins. or 56333333 ft. Thats 10,000 miles or back and forth across the USA more than a few times.

Now at $5,000.00/ card X 200,000,000* X10/ person = $10,000,000,000,000.00


Now 10% of these 200,000,000* have 2nd mortgages of at least $15,000.00 average balance that equals $300,000,000,000.00 This give us a grand total of $10,300,000,000,000.00

By the way remember we have not added in the 30% increase by margin.

Now these people have this money invested in mutual funds which are using derivatives to further amplify the total amount wagered on this bubble.

In the first place, where has all this money come from. Where in the heck did the banks get this much money to lend. Their savings deposits are the lowest in years.
I wasnt aware that they had printed that much money. Have they been disseminating misinformation again. Have they been monetorizing ( sp ) the debt. We were warned almost ten years ago, by Rabi Batra and others, to watch and beware when they start moneterizing ( sp ) the debt. They will not have to worry about it if the stock market drops it will all just disappear.

We all should be on our hands and knees praying to God for a miracle that will get us through this mess. I pray that I am wrong.

*I used 200,000,000 people for lack of a better number - there are people with more than 10 cards and there are dead people who still have cards that are active.

Now lets all go back to the bank and use our stock as collateral for new loans so that we can start the whole process all over again.

The Number is no in the billions or trillions it is in the ZILLIONS.
Just like being a kid again baby boomers - remember when you said  I am going to have Zillions! well now you do.
_____________________________________
As we have seen in Japan, and subsequently South-East Asia, the worse the mania the worse the crash. The US share marketis staying up for no reason other than that Asians are buying dollars, and as a consequence dollar assets. Given the turmoil from Tokyo to Jakarta there is no saying when this will stop. But it most certainly will, and as in 1987 the Nippon Lifes of this world are not going to give you and me prior written notice.

New Jersey, USA. The State is finalising plans to borrow $US 2.8bn ( $3.8bn ) at an interest rate of 7.6 per cent so as to "invest" in the stockmarket. A Government borrowing huge licks of money to speculate in shares?! You read right.

This puts the S&P price/earnings ratio of 23 times, into a dangerously overpriced situation. Post-1987 we had lower interest rates, and then increased productivity to bail us out.
This time, there may be neither.

In other words, those investors taking comfort in the post-1987resurgence of the sharemarket, and expecting history to repeat itself when the US sharemarket takes its dive, may be sorely
disappointed. That is what makes this situation so serious.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971018/market/markets2.html
_____________________________________

And the band played on....poof! the magic dragen.

Good Night All - God Bless
GO BUCKS!

Possible xau target:

Sig--You sound like an honest, decent, caring, intelligent man who loves his country, his family and his fellow man! I applaud these virtues and hope you will not misunderstand what I am about to say to you as I, too, consider myself a patriotic American citizen who loves the American way of life and the freedoms we enjoy in this great land of plenty! But with all due respect, Herr Sig, democracy in this country is rapidly becoming but a pious shibboleth which promises much but in the end signifies nothing! For we hardworking patriotic American citizens no longer control our own destinies, economic or otherwise. The FED does! Bob Rubin does! AG does! Yes, Bill Clinton does! And all those Asian soft money guys who funnel him money under, over, around and through the democratic fundraisers at the White House and Lincoln bedroom! I agree this stock market needs a correction to remain healthy! But a market that trades with a dividend yield of 1.6% ( the lowest in history ) and at a PE of 23 ( the highest in history ) and has quadrupled in price since the infamous crash of '87 will have to correct far more than a mere 10% to correct all the excesses built into this monster! Try 30, 40 or 50%! The only reason it's as high as it is now is because of the irresponsible growth in the supply of money created by our omniscient Federal Reserve which the boomers have been brainwashed by the establishment politicians and power brokers in Washington and the media to "INVEST" in what can only be described as a "stock market bubble!" Like all past promises of paper wealth, unending prosperity and perpetual peace, the new paradigm of this
investment era will also run its course and implode! The paper promises on which it was created will be destroyed! And those patriots who recognize the fraud for what it is will be there as always to pick up whatever pieces remain and begin again with the only true, honest and eternal store of wealth this side of heaven--G-O-L-D! Remember, Herr Sig, the Pax Romana of ancient Rome lasted @ 200 years. How much more time do you think this Pax Americana has left? Think about it! And while its still on your mind, call up Bart and buy some real wealth with some of your paper promises so that when the dust finally settles you'll have something on which to re-build the American dream! Wiedersehen, mein Freund!

RJ; von pisz off guy, you musz ahGRee vit diz guy or he fling tandrum.
Pervahst he luze skirt.

Alas, poor Auric. My HM October calls, I knew
them, auratio. An option of infinite jest, of most excellent fancy. Expired in the life of a despised term. The fault, dear Bluto, was not in the stars but in the CBOT! Up, damned spot! ( exiting to stunned silence, then wild applause )

RJ vant rekognition vor the visdoom he pass to broken ruble-less gold-bug luzers dat dump big bunch money folloving the Golden Relik ofv Barbarik past. The koming of RJ vil safe the greedy zouls and RJ vil be your savior.

If we have indeed seen the top in this long winded bull, here is a reminder of what a long protracted bear ( nearly two years ) in 1973/74 can look like. We may now be two months into a similar drop. The bear of 73/74 took just about 50% off the value of American corporations. It was a long, slow grind of epic proportions. Does history repeat itself?

http://www.lowrisk.com/7374bear.htm

For those of you that missed it -- the New Indian Gold Deregulation may have a large bearing on the price of gold over the next few months.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/17/y0023_z00_37.html

See RJ's comments yesterday about this very important event. If, as he says, Indian gold dealers stop buying until January 1, 1998 in order to save 10-12% on price--could have an interesting short term effect on gold's price.

FOOD OF THE GODS
OR
A SLICE OF LIFE

BY JOHN LAIRD

Concocted from
and
Subtly flavoured
by
Daily exposure
to the
Australian Ethos.

Dedicated to

The Family -
around whose tables
rich fare has been offered
- much exchanged.

Allah made poetry a
Cheap thing to buy, and
A simple thing to understand
So that all men might
Profit from it.

Cooking instructions

For FOOD OF THE GODS

All poetry should be read aloud.
The symbolism and often used poetic license
is solely to emphasise the underlying fact.
It adds poignancy, pungency and
flavour to the dish.

Nasdaq Volume: 1,007,844,900 shares
http://www.bigcharts.com/reports/bigmarkets/broad/nasdaq/today/

Big Movers - Big Pics - Big Markets
http://www1.bigcharts.com/nscp/3.x/

I AM

Thou art that head of gold
And also thine the feet of clay
And thine the body, and the mind
That veils the spirit
And thru the years, designed
The soul enclosing walls
That mar our way

Thine is the bright observant eye
The spirit strong
The will to follow
The way, as stumbling on
We see -- clear, more clearly
On the morrow

For ever was it so
The dream, the vision and the grail
But the body
Oh the well loved flesh
With all its stubborn will to fail

We need must pray
Dear head of gold
Be still and pray
Dear heart, in faith forever strive
That other better way to hold
And stumble on with feet of clay
The golden dream to keep alive.


Daniel ch2 v31..... " You saw, O King, and behold a great image."
To all who seek to know the fate of the EMU read Daniel

Howdy Nick--Bill Buckler at the Privateer had a large article on India's gold plans about a month or so ago. If I am not mistaken, it was available for non subscribers to view. Although, when I went to his site, I couldn't find it. Perhaps the Cap'n could reference the article. Off to bed soon, noon comes around early in these parts!

MY VIEW!!!

Telstra is a Gov't owned corporation - "by the people, for the people".
It steals from the people so that it can make profits far in excess of what it needs.
Not sure but I think around $2 billion. Please check.
Because it can make such vast excesses the Gov't values it at $42b.
It is selling 1/3 ( $14b ) of itself to the mums and dads - who already own it.

This corporation could make profits of $200m per year and still be stealing off us.
But then it valuation would only be $4.2b
Then 1/3 would now be worth $1.4b.

Therefore not only do they steal $2b per annum off us.
But in this float "for the people" they steal another $12.6b.
And the Gov't endorse this practise at the top of a market.
When the mania of the mums and dads is at the greatest.
This mentality from the powers who control is why all must change.
The Gov't should be held responsible for it's people.

I personaly tell everyone that I know of this viewpoint.
But all I hear is - 'remember the Commonwealth float'.
This float should be boycotted!!!!!

Sig: While I have not seen the 10% drop in the Dow/Gold Ratio that I need to convince me that the Dow has seen its top in early August, I am certain that the trend is close to, or already has, reversed.

The problem is excess worldwide debt. This debt was incurred in order to build factories for exportable products which, in turn, were purchased with even more debt by the importing countries.

We now have overcapacity in the producing countries and customers who no longer have borrowing capabilities in the consuming countries.

What will be happening in the next 10 years or more years is deflation as producers lower their prices to meet the decreasing purchasing power of their customers. During this process the most highly leveraged producers and consumers will become bankrupt as the inflation they had been counting on to extract them from their debt does not occur.

The talking heads on Wall Street Week last night were incorrect. Take another look at your bb fisher chart of the Dow/Gold Ratio of the past 100 years. Pay particular attention to 1987. The Dow was not priced at extreme levels in terms of real money then. That is quite different now. This is the worst possible time in history to be a Dow Dipster. Those people on Wall Street Week are looking at charts constructed in inflationary dollars and are making faulty decisions because of it.

Taiwan is down 214 in Saturday morning trading ( 2.73% )

U.K. Will Rule Out Single Currency Before Election, Paper Says

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown will make plain in the next few weeks that Britain
won't join the planned single European currency before the next election, which isn't due until 2002,
The Times said. In an interview with the paper, Brown repeated the government's official position
that ``it is highly unlikely that Britain can join in the first wave'' ( in January 1999 ) and said he was
determined to avoid ``the trap which the Conservatives fell into'' over allowing currency speculation
to overshadow government policy- making. He didn't explicitly set a date before which Britain
would not join, but The Times said he would ``act to protect the economy. . .by making plain that
Britain will not join in the present Parliament.''

Taiwan Dollar Falls to 10-Year Low Against U.S. Dollar

The Taiwan dollar fell to its lowest in nearly 10 years against the U.S. dollar, after the central bank
gave up months of defense to support the currency. The currency dropped 0.9 percent to
NT$29.760 to the U.S. dollar, its weakest since November 1987. Some traders have said the
Taiwan dollar will slide to as low as NT$30. The central bank has spent more than $5 billion
defending the Taiwan dollar since July, when Thailand devalued the baht and sparked a currency
slump in the region.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/17/csgky_y00_1.html

Greenspan fends off another disaster
It's from his bath tub that Alan Greenspan will try to prevent the next crash
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971018/perspective/perspective2.html

I'm off to the bath.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/17/z0000_z00_30.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/17/z0000_z00_14.html

New India gold policy to boost jewellerey exports
...the policy measure depressed prices on the Bombay bullion market, the country's biggest, on Friday.
"We are still awaiting details of the new import policy and the market is agog with confusion and panic."

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/17/z0009_67.html

Donald here's an interesting read.
Hair-brained schemes bound to burn fingers
Chicago, USA. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reveals that small traders are record net long ( ie bought ) in the S&P 500, while the commercials are net short.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971018/market/markets2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/17/z0000_z00_17.html

Hi Nick@A: The downside of this thing is going to be horrible, worse than the 30's in my opinion because more people are involved and to a deeper extent than in those days. When I was a kid in the 30's haircuts were 25c but you still got one at home because the barber was "too expensive".

Nick@C holding your shorts I hope, they were cheap on friday.
It's almost like our market thinks we're down enough - HA HA HA

It looks like down from here.
http://www.concentric.net/~sellnow/spxfridy.gif

Another big down on monday, then a tecnical rebound for the suckers, and then comes the big drop as the real selling begins.

I see this market rolling over on itself like when a tidal wave hits the shore.
Out at sea when the wave is coming it is 6 inchs high but travelling at 500 kph.
When it hits the continental shelf it builds up it's momentum.
But the true power lies when it strikes the shores,
100ft of pure power, massive, omnipotent, smashing all with'in it's reach.
The intensity of the selling to come will exceed all expectations.

To be a master fisherman one must learn to read the sign.
So be it to for the chart readers, one must learn to read the sign
The sign is there, for all to see.
It is there now, today and before.
The denial will be intense.
But the wave has started.
It formed at sea weeks ago and has now just started rearing up the continental shelf.
The people who have foresight are out.
And the people on the shore can just make out the top of the wave.
The tall viewers can see what is coming and are moving.
The small viewers can only see a small wave as yet.
And don't understand what the fuss is about.
They will soon. All will soon.

Sniff the air, feel the feelings, and obey the gut.
To rationalise while looking down the beach is folly.

I used to smell prawns when I was a master fisherman.
The senses had to be sharp to win.

And I smell this to be coming.
I read so much sign now, that I know this is to be.
The distance from the shore, that this behemoth is, is beyond me.
Is of no consequence, as I reside far from the beach.
Where many are joining me.
To look back in amazement.
Awe.

IMHO

The aftermath horrific.

Mornin Donald,Nick ( C ) and Nick ( Aussie ) :Watched several business shows ( Wall Street Week,Moneyline ect ect ) last night and the focus was looking back at the crash of "87" and a few Wall Streeters blamed the last couple of down Dow days on the media as they were constantly hyping the ten year aniversary...I think we ( the USA @ least ) are due for a prolonged BEAR market but don't see it crashing or anything--especially on Monday...maybe later....Weather: 7 ( C ) and overcast with ocean swells.

Hi Nick! Read your tidal wave bit after I posted---glad I got in that ocean swells thingy....Keep up the good work as you've been posting alot of good stuff!

Donald -- Great to see that you and the two Nicks have the floor this morning. We've had worse disruptions than usual in the last few days.
I think sig has a point about the market going up ( short term ) - but probably not to 8300. Can't stop those baby boomers. However, we already have weakening earnings, and any US - based company that produces goods based on US costs will get serious competition from those SE Asian companies, since they now have a discount of at least 20%. It will be interesting to see how the deflation ary effects of these goods are counterbalnced by the inflationary effects of more dollars. Probably depends on the M2/M1 ratio -- perhaps it will be dropping again. In that case, the overriding effect will be deflation. All of this will take at least a year to unravel. I also remember reading somewhere that there is a general human tendency to raise production when prices drop, just to increase sales. Your comments about foreign autos flooding the US markets are reminiscent of what happened in the late 20's.
I had thought the baby boom and the sunspot stimulatory effect would drive the market up next year -- now I doubt it, given the magnitude of the problems in SE Asia.
Anything new about China? Still haven't heard your take on those 350,000 Chinese companies that Hong Kong and Japan are supposed to bail out. It sure does sound like a problem to me -- can't believe all of these are the inefficient, old-style Communist business-era firms.

Nick ( @Aussie ) :Who is right -- the little guys who are long, or the big commercial guys that are short? Is the commercial short stuff just hedging? You understand this stuff far better than I!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/17/z0009_12.html

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Oops - just saw your "Tsunami" post. Short text display has its disadvantages. Perhaps we will have one of those bear market bull traps, as they call them ( hope I've got the name right! )

G'day Nick@Aussie. Your tidal wave analogy hits at home with me. As a kid I witnessed a tsunami that killed 60 people ( including my teacher ) and caused $200 million ( 1960 dollars ) damage. The experience is burned into my memory as if it were yesterday. I don't know if this one is going to be a tsunami or just a very rough storm that lasts a couple of years but eventually the bills have got to be paid for the multi-year binge investors have been on. My father was put into an orphanage in '29 because his parents couldn't feed him. I would not wish that experience on anyone and only hope the bills can be paid over many years instead of in one big wave.

Hi JTF: I suppose we could get a new Dow high but it is increasingly unlikely. The breakdown yesterday was strong and across the board. Compaq and Dell say no. The "feel" of a bull is gone. The "exuberance" of the first part of the year for Dow stocks has changed to a feeling of "straw grasping" as the low cap stuff started moving, a sense of gamblers playing the long shots. Then there is the fundamental failure of earning after earning being hit by currency losses. Half the world is in despair.
The whole mood of Asia has changed. You can feel it in posts from Jin, and of course from the regular news. I'll have a short post from China for you in a minute.

China Economy Slowed in Third Quarter: Bloomberg Survey

China's economic growth eased in the third quarter as strong export sales failed to make up for
weaker industrial expansion, economists forecast. The economy expanded at 9.4 percent in the first
quarter and 9.6 percent in the second quarter. Meanwhile China's exports after the first nine months
of the year were up 24 percent compared to import growth of 2.5 percent. Beijing will report
China's gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services produced in China, on
Monday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said growth in the first nine months of the year
would be 9.4 percent, compared with the same period last year.

All: President Clinton notes "Tide of Change" Sweeping the World. I wonder if he realizes how prophetic he is! Beginning in the Pacific Ocean I would guess.
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971017/international/stories/clinton_10.html

Saturday, October 18, 1997 Budget able to lure in investors DATUK Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad said yesterday the 1998 Budget would be capable of bringing in foreign investors because it proved that the nation has strong and sound economic fundamentals. The Prime Minister said he would not describe the Budget as painful because "we have had it good for so many years and what we have introduced in the 1998 Budget are necessary measures." He said when Anwar unveiled the Budget, it clearly showed that Malaysia had very good economic fundamentals and there was no reason for lack of confidence on the part of the foreign investors. "Look at our surplus . . it is more than RM8bil." Speaking to reporters at the Parliament lobby, after the Budget announcement, Dr Mahathir however reiterated his disgust with speculators and manipulators of currency trading. "We can come up with good strategies to overcome the weakening of our ringgit but if the currency traders want to suppress it, they do not care ( about the good strategies ) . "That is the reason why we want currency trading to be regulated but this will take a long time. "For the moment, the value of the ringgit will still be difficult to control," he added. Dr Mahathir said the direction and shape of currency trading was determined and shaped by the currency traders themselves. "They can suppress the currency of any country, first it was Croatia, Mexico, South Africa and now they turn their attention on South-East Asia," he said. Dr Mahathir said he had earlier met some German investors who wanted to invest in Malaysia. "We welcome genuine foreign investors who are here to set up factories and work on a long-term basis," he said. On the deferred mega projects, which were mentioned in the Budget announcement, the Prime Minister said there was no set target for them to be revived. "When we have the money, we will proceed with them. "But if I say go ahead now, the manipulators will immediately make that an excuse to attack our ringgit," he added. Dr Mahathir said the Budget was also promoting Information Technology ( IT ) aimed at creating knowledge-based workers. "We are facing a shortage of workers and by moving towards knowledge-based workers, we can overcome this and at the same time increase the income of our people.

October 16, 1997
One of your recent posters wrote of ( a widespread ) belief that the
government either has a plan to stop the market's fall, or that they will step
in to shore up the market if needed. Your response discredited the
government-as-conspirator argument, noting that markets are simply too big
to allow any one group the ability to control. Recent world history offers an
excellent example of your view in practice.

At its peak in 1989, the Japanese stock market stood at nearly 39,000 and
Japan's real estate market was valued at more than $18 trillion, more than
the combined value of the rest of the planet! As a trader there at the time, I
was told ad nauseum about why the market would never fall, but more
importantly why it COULD NEVER fall: the government would not allow it.

As you know, the government of Japan controls, or tries to control, far more
aspects of the economy and society than the US government would ever
dream of trying to control. Shortly after the Japanese Crash began, the
government began to try to put a halt to the skid. Since 1991, the Japanese
government has spent more than $350 billion of the peoples' savings ( the
Government run Postal Savings system and Postal Insurance system ) to try
to directly push up stock market prices. They have also spent more than
$700 billion in "emergency budgets" and "supplementary budgets" in an
attempt to reinvigorate the economy. Japan now has the highest debt/GNP
of all G7 countries as measured on a yearly basis, and second highest
debt/GNP on an overall basis ( now above 83% ) .

What do they have to show for it? The Nikkei is at 17,000, down 60% from
its high. Real estate prices, tough to measure because so few transactions
are taking place, are in many places down 85% from their 1989 highs. The
economy shrank by an annualized 11% in the last quarter, and it is looking
worse so far this quarter. The pension system is underfunded to the tune of
a trillion dollars, and the banking system has teetered on the verge of
collapse for years.

So much for any government's ability to control the markets. --A.G.
Reply from Bob Prechter

Exactly. And the Nikkei is not through falling, their financial system is not through
deflating, and the Japanese economy is not through contracting. The same
scenario in the U.S. has not even BEGUN yet. But it is close. --RP

I wonder how long mom and pop investors will keep their money in funds when these results gather a head of steam.

Domestic funds down. S & P Index funds average loss of 1.59%. Midcap funds down 1.73%. Japanese funds up.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/17/z0000_z00_33.html

Escalation in Iraq -- Kurds use Russian made surface to surface Grad Missles, Turkey still in Iraq, despite earlier news to the contrary.

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971017/international/stories/kurds_3.html

Some Turkis troops have moved further into Iraq

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/17/z0009_6.html

Nick ( @Canberra ) : I would guess that mom and pop are not going to give up right away, given all the hype! The strength and duration of the up will probably prevent a sudden down -- fitful up and down turmoil over months, but generally down longterm -- I would guess. Barring an international crisis or a Clinton scandal -- Even his hometown Little Rock papers are getting less complementary, and the FBI is busy here in the background, nibbling away at the corrupt governmental machine that has contolled Arkansas for so many years. Hope he doen't do something silly with the Nimitz to distract attention.

Ted: Agree with your take on the markets. Crash unlikely in the near future, but a SEVERE BEAR MARKET is in store once the ongoing topping process is completed. Downward movement will be slow in the early phsases, but should pick up as prices decline. I am looking for a drop of at least 25% by late 1998. Something akin to the 1969-70 bear marker.

GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: your 1:07 - solid. You mean it's NOT a new era? ( ;- ) NICK ( Aussie ) : And well prepared dishes they are. Gourmet! "I AM" - Brilliant and Profound. It is my coat of arms said succinctly and with great insight. My Thanks to Dad.

RJ you lived by the sword you died by the sword

Donald: I read somewhere that a group had amassed an incredibly large sum of money to attack the HK dollar -- just waiting for the right moment. I know that mainland China had already devalued their currency, but HK may
well be at risk is they refuse to float their currency. If the problems in China are real, someone will attack the HK dollar.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/10/17/z0010_1.html

Great to have geniune posters again -- annoying problems we've had recently, but not enough to throw in the towel. Hope RJ returns.

oh well -- It was good while it lasted. Good morning Mike Sheller!

JTF-- I hope your timing is better with your investments, mate!!

I've got to do some chores for the real boss this morning not the work one. Will check in later! MS - any ideas on how to deal with our Kitco-wide probem? Direct communication will not work.

Mike Sheller: I thought of you on my way to pick up Barron's this morning. The moon is up there still bright and it hit me about the origin of the word "moonshine", it makes you do crazy things! Been drinking the stuff for years and never knew what caused it.

Nick ( @Canberra ) : Good point -- my timing was uncanny! Just like some of those Astrological indicators -- great at turning points, but the investor much choose the direction! Mike Sheller - I was not referring to you -- great to have you aboard this morning!

The configuration of the coming conflagration in stox is truly up for grabs here. I was just thinking of the 69-70 pattern when you posted it George. That slow rollover, those increasingly feeble rallies, the lulling security of a "breather," a gentle "dip," another final rally attempt at new highs, and the first big failure down thru too many top floors to ever return back to former heights. Donald - the professionals can move the markets in more concentrated ways than the public, 'cept the public puts a lot of money in the hands of the pros to buy for them into mutual funds. I keep hearing more and more of this "I'm not concerned, I'm in for the long term." This litany will fade to a trembling quiver and cease at the bottom of a true bear, but I think many will continue averaging in as this thing tops out ( in the process now ) and starts to go down. There will come, however, just enough hesitation by the public to allow bigger players to affect prices. Of course a "crash" would not leave much room for dissection or choice. It would come and be done. Might even be "healthy" in a technical and psychological sense. But here again factors gravitate against it. I have heard NYSE officials talk about the restraint their trading "collars" will have in a severe fall. I am always skeptical of "fail safes" of human devise, but I do believe this feature will do nothing more, in the end, but help to insure the return of a good old fahioned 12 - 18 month bear. The kind of gruelling, psychological horror where "buy and holders" come home every night and kick the dog.

Hi Ted: We have 44F this morning. The rain that was promised, and needed, is slipping by to the south. We just got the clouds.

They say never look back but I bet you did. Did you get rid of the right paper so far? Saved enough to install a galley in the kayak I bet.

Internationally acclaimed & venerable Mr. Inger shares his market insights & wisdom with us. Lately hes been VERY HOT-VERY HOT! Per Ingers Worst case scenario is DOW could drop 30%...:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger1020.html

Mike Sheller: I have to run out for a hour or so, will be thinking about the spike vs slow roll topic. I still need to see my 10% drop before it happens either way.

JTF: As you have observed, and must be clear to many open-minded Kitcoites by now, astrology often does isolate the future potential turning points, or "time windows of unusual activity" as I like to put it. The real trick is to do your technical and fundamental homework to made a reasonable guess as to which direction the astrological influence or paradigm shift will take prices. I've had a decent record spotting those windows, but am usually as fallible as the next person in choosing what to do about them. A good rule of thumb is to check out a corporation or group whose stock price is in the pits. If the company, or industry, is still viable and not on the verge of bankruptcy, ( balance sheets and other funnymentals must be slogged thru ) then one can reasonably suppose that an approaching dynamite planetary influence will likely kick sudden new life into the vehicle. A nice way to ambush a bottoming stock, or trashed industry. I've done it in the past with the oil-drillers and independent producers. Am doing it now with gold and gold stocks, and direct corporate involvement in mining. If I'm wrong, most of the fluff has been washed out of the industry anyhow. If I am right, I am getting in at maximum astrological, technical, and fundamental pressure on a company or industry. The leverage, for the patient, is then very wonderful. While astrology, like many other factors, is a valuable tool when properly understood and utilized, by ITSELF it is not necessarily any kind of "holy grail." It merely adds another, altho potentially powerful, tool in the speculator's kit. My personal quest is to refine its effective use in speculation and corporate business project planning as much as I can. I'm happy some folks allow me to share the fun, failure, and profits with them. The quest never ends, does it?

For all denizens of cyberspace, software engineers and computer savants, Lend me your ears, I come to bury Hepcat, not to praise him! He has none of the graces of Caesar who he thinks he is. Why don't we put our heads together and see if we cannot come with a way to exclude those who are here only to heckle and dun our posters without excluding contrary opinion. I have no problem with contrary opinion but who needs cat dung laying around and stinking up the place.
We need to help improve this site. Bart provides this service for free, I think we owe it to him to contribute whatever we can in the way of software ideas, forum modifications etc. just to get rid of the pesky fleas who irritate and alienate our best posters. I think if we use our heads we may be able to improve things while we are at it. Bart, I'll take threads, registration fee, whatever it takes. I'm sorry I am not enough of a computer whiz to help, but those of you who are please get the ideas rolling.

The old "Phoenix Program" from my Vietnam days comes to mind.

I'm actually turning bullish with this sell-off we are having. Gold LOVES to "fake" traders out. Now that most traders have gotten "Stopped-Out" of there long position, I think that Gold can now move up!

Donald: Your excellent 08:17 post very enlightening: The Japanese Stock Market Wouldn't, Couldn't, BUT DID Crash! Unfortunately, the US public has been brain-washed into the same complacency - which is doomed to pay the consequences of seeing their hard-earned saving dwindle away in the looming Stocks Bear Market. Unmistakable signals extreme over-valuation: All-time record low dividend yield of 1.68%, all-time record market price/earnings of 23 and market price/book a ludicrous 5 times.

Hopefully, a review of the OTHER Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds might prevent some sensible souls from being devastated from the coming reckoning of reason. Here is the sad historic truth of the publics folly, driven by unbridled greed.


The Delusion...........The Investment......The Eventual Loss

Holland, 1634..................Tulips...................93%
France, 1719..........Mississippi Bubble...........99%
England, 1720..........South Sea Bubble............84%
America, 1921-1929........Stocks...................90%
Japan, 1965-1989....Stocks & Real Estate.........69%
Taiwan, 1986-1990.........Stocks...................80%
America, 1973-1974........Stocks...................55%
Hong Kong, 1974...........Stocks...................90%
Mexico, 1978-1981.........Stocks...................73%
America, 1982-1997........Stocks...................??

Genius is knowing when to stop.

...............- Goethe

GLENN: Glad to hear your bullish "gut" rumblings. Why not? The XAU, HM, PDG have made a nice, conservative, predictable return move to their H&S bottom breakout neckline. Gold Bullion has reacted back to the support line connecting the gently declining price tops of the July thru mid September bottom pattern. Silver bullion has tumbled back to its uptrend line. The charts show these tension lines are supportive right now, until broken. I think the odds are generally against such a classic inverse H&S pattern breakout in an index to regress upon itself. Can happen, sure. But if one is a technician in any way shape or form, one has to lean toward resumption of the uptrend soon.

Cheese: Thanks for your earlier post.

Our democracy is dynamic. We have been in worse scrapes than today. See A. Lincoln.

The political leftwing is being challenged as never before in my lifetime. Working people at the middle and upper income brackets ( including blue collar and union members ) recognize the obsolete nature of FDR's America. Poor folk continue to be misused and misled. Meanwhile, fearful, status quo politicians of both parties do not dare change direction.

At the same time, capitalism and US commerce are stronger than ever. The average Joe is cautiously optimistic. The more confident he becomes, the more political pressure he will exert in changing this status quo. If by chance the economy should stumble, the pace of political change will pick up. The harder the fall, the faster the demand for systemic change. It happens every time. On the other hand, a continuation of moderate economic growth eventually improves Joe's financial wellbeing. This new economic status is accompanied by an enlightenment or grand view of a prosperous future. Weak Politicians are too inept to stop Joe. The collective nature of our democracy, more in tune with todays economic/political/social condition than ever before, is in the process of forcing the political class to adapt or die. Political scandal, economic setbacks are part of the mix. But the overall direction and history of mankind always moves forward.

Mike Sheller,all: Mike - Thanks for that illuminating post about Astrological turning points! I know the Bradley siderograph worked this way, but didn't know this phenomenon was a general one.
All: My take on market is that we will have some major short term rallies because of all those mom and pops, and baby boomers. It will take while before they catch on to what's happening. Then we will have our outright bear. Any comments about the USAgold statment about Japan being a big buyer of silver, and a New York banker saying "no more Central bank sales"? I am no expert on these things and would be very interested in what the gurus think.

I think a simple site defined password would suffice. This way a poster can be excluded by denying access to that site allocated code. This could even be automated as an email reply to request for access so Bart would only need to be concerned about deleting the nasties. I can't see Bart spending his time manually administrating an access system ( including a fee system ) since it would swamp his time. Alot of other sites use this system and I'm sure that Bart could get good technical assistance in setting it up.

who chopped-up rj?
how is it so many fall by the way-side
in the game of life? consider all associations
from child-hood till present. what happens to
the majority of acquaintances? where do they
go? to rj-ville?

this acquaintance is heading to the lake to partake,
in some of sols errant rays.

"bury the dead past and trust not the future"

what do you think this famous author was saying?

ENJOY today. treat the present as if that is all there is,
because that is exactly ALL there is. NOW. come back to now
everyday. stay in the now and avoid going places that in reality
no longer exist or may never happen. mental energy should be
utilized only for the NOW.

cherokee!; ) drinker-of-the-michelob-to-assist-linearity-of-thought-NOW----

Mornin George! Yeah,that's what my "gut" tells me a long grinding BEAR market with many bear market rallys along the way....The buy on the dip philosopy is fated to fail at some point and I think that point is near--am sleeping much better now that I've taken over 50% of my money out of the market and what is left is heavily tilted towards oil+natural gas....in the meantime will collect 5.26% ( money market ) on my X-stox money...

Hi dude...have a good time @ the lake!...Ever read any Krisnamurti ( speakin of the here+now ) how few people actually live in the "NOW"...eh! today is my day to *********

Stay off the sauce or you'll end up like me........or Cherokee..

Barron's interview with technician Justin Mamis today. Thinks large caps are topping out, but sees considerably more upside for the small caps. Once these top out, he is looking for a SUPER BEAR.

Glenn: Is your bullish gold call strictly short-term or do you see the longer-term picture improving as well?

Speaking of the here +now....Robert Goizueta ( CEO of Coke ) just died---you never know when your time is up....

Thanks George for the tip on Justin M, haven't read anything from him in awhile. Guess I'll read Barrons, I like that old grouch Mammis!

It's nice to hear Justin Mamis is casting pearls for us. He's always a pithy read. And he can read a chart pretty well.

Mike Sheller: Changing the rules since 1987 won't prevent a crash but will certainly slow it down. A 500 point down day now would have at least a 1/2 hour break so it seems unlikely. I expect a sharp sell-off rather than a slow roll, by sharp I mean a 1000 point down week. Percentage wise that is less than 1987. Two weeks of that would be 25% down.

I think the trigger will be interest rates, Randy Forsyth has a piece today about the meeting on the 28th being a chance for Greenspan to explain an increase. The mounting failures in SE Asia are putting unbearable pressure on Japan. Soon they will sell bonds to prop up their stock market in my opinion. At the same time there could be an attack on the Hong Kong dollar and more defensive bond selling. Taiwan is a large bond ( and gold ) holder and may need to do the same as per my post earlier today. Thus we could experience significant pressure on both long and short rates. The Fed is probably responding to pressure from member banks to re-direct money out of stocks back to savings accounts. They may have already made the decision for the hike and need the 28th to take care of the political noise.

Everyone on Wall Street is focused on the economy and earnings. They should have been paying more attention to the financial system. This will all come as a great shock.

CHEROKEE: I am just so busy these days, would it hurt if I put off living in the NOW just until tommorrow...no, wait, I have a dinner tommorrow, and I have to work on a shareholder's list...how about next Tuesday? No...wait, I've got to call my literary agent to ask her about a publisher's list and potential royalties on my new book...ummm, tell you what - my shaman will call your shaman. We'll set it up.

Mike Sheller - standing on the shoulders of Jiminy Cricket
crunchhh. ...oops!
Deflector of errant Moonbeams
during vagrant eclipses
If I have seen more than others
It is because my eyes are open
while I know I am asleep.

PS regard from Don Genaro.
( ;- )

DONALD: Everything is plausible. Can't disagree. I frankly sort of agree with Mamis that the big caps are topping and the underlying market is catching up a bit. This could go on for a few months. Perhaps too many people are now "crash conscious" and thus it won't happen that way. I really don't know, but one thing I am positive on - we are at the crossroads of a major secular asset inversion similiar to 1929-37 and 1972-1980.
At some point these overextended stocks will head down, and gold, perhaps later than sooner, but nevertheless, will head up. I am still watching for gold to move up clearly before stocks come down, but that doesn't have to happen either. My entire strategy here, both from the market side and the corporate side is to go with a long-term inversion strategy. It's pure business.

FOR RJ: For what it's worth, I just feel somehow impelled to say that I hope RJ returns and did not seriously mean to leave Kitco. I think I have taken enough of the measure of the man to fear that he is dead serious. But if he is lurking ( in which case I misjudged you...for shame--NO, JUST KIDDING ( ;- ) ( ;- ) 9'+. ) and reads this, RJ you are one of the substantial and informative posters whose presence contributes to making Kitco the extraordinary site that it is. I don't have to list the reasons why, any intelligent, open-minded, self-secure Kitcoite knows why. No one has to agree here. But we can all appreciate the incredible diversity of thought within such an ostensibly narrow field as precious metals ( I mean, after ALL! So you shovel some dirt, and you pick out some gold, so, so what's the big deal? So you buy some gold and it goes up, or it goes down? So, so what's the big deal? ( ( said in a valley-girl/Northshore LI accent ) ) I say return and ignore the dregs that only exist to soil and spoil. Step over their rotting carcasses and their mewling plaints for attention. You are too big to allow them to drive you away. Kitcoites who have something to share, and have respect for each other, even in disagreement, have just what they need amongst each other. Just as we must go through life alongside chosen companions while yet surrounded by strange and often threatening hordes of others, cyberspace is no different. Let us not leave this, or any other noble forum to the philistine degenerates, and psuedo witted. Stay with us.

To all - when you invest your money in gold mining companies, what is your goal? To
make money? Preserve wealth? Follow the crowd ( or broker ) ?

To make money? How much? What is a good return? A double? Triple? Sig wrote a
nice piece on Canyon Resources the other day. Fine company, good people ( some of
them used to work for me ) . Producing gold, making money, good reserves, cheap stock.
Why not buy them? They have almost 39 million shares out. With the stock at $3, a
double would of course be $6 BUT that won't happen now. The market value of the
company would have to increase by over $120 million just for you to double your money.
We need a real move in gold before that will happen.

Preserve wealth? Gold mining companies with good reserves are a good way to preserve
wealth as long as they don't have too much debt. Canyon probably will preserve your
wealth, it shouldn't go down, but it won't go up either. Gold mining companies who are
actively acquiring gold reserves in a drastically depressed market are a very good way to
preserve wealth.

Follow the crowd? No, you want the crowd to follow you. A gold and silver company
with a well thought out plan of acquisition, production and financing will make an
absolute killing in the next five years.

Me? Well I look to make a Sawbuck for a Buck. ( That's $20 for $1 for the younger
crowd ) My email address is real.

Mornin Mike! If I could write I'd say something like you did in your 11:40 post!!! Am goin out to start carrying five cords of firewood into the house---so I can be in the here + NOW-----arrrggggh...

Finally my favorite charts.

I wish I could get some of you guys to comment on oil/gold. Gold has been tracking oil since it ( gold ) bottomed. It's curious to me that oil should be so active on the up side recently, given, the world view that there's plenty of it. I'm wondering if Another hasn't got his finger on something and there is some sea change about to happen in how the oil producers are compensated. I'm beginning to think more about the 70's as a model for what we're looking at than the 20's. Comments?

Arden is right when he says that investors ( now I'm talking in a true BUSINESS sense ) should be looking for new mining projects to put cash into now. This is because every dollar is working to buy specific, bargain basement assets in the ground directly. The amount of property that can be claimed via optioning is staggering, as is the amount of gold and silver in the ground. When and as the gold market turns around, these assets suddenly become worth much more than their current prices. And, of course, in the frenzy of a gold bull top, these reserves are, literally, gold! This allows pennies to become dollars. This is investing, from a business viewpoint. It is a commitment to a corporate vision and strategy to maximize asset accumlation when a valued asset is out of favor. It is a classic marketing venture. Buy Low, Sell High. But first one must buy low with equity doing full work at the BOTTOM of a cycle for the asset in question. This is the time when new money direct investment is most frightened. Except for those who have a faith in the vision they see ahead. "Investing" in established companies whose shares have already been diluted over several cycles is akin to having your dollars generate pennies. Not the kind of inversion you want to employ. Arden has intriguing details on this subject.

Bart: Thanks for a wonderful site. I've lurked here for several months, this being my first non-testing post, and thank you for allowing the diverse ( I hate that touchy-feely word ) range of opinions that appear.

Cheesehead: Your 01:07 was very insightful and appreciated. However, I am troubled by your reference to our system of government as a "democracy".

Sig: Your 10:12, same as above.

To all: The United States is governed as a Constitutional Republic, not a
Democracy. Why do the media and others constantly refer to it as a Democracy? Is it all part of a plot to condition the populace for upcoming events?
I find it hard to believe the highly educated media elite know not the error of their words. What gives?
Or am I just too sensitive? ( I hate that word, too ) .

CARL: Assets of different classes, and sub classes, will often diverge in their price action. The re-linkage of gold with oil has to be given more time to clarify ( refine? ) itself. Another's posts are very intriguing and potentially revelatory. It will surprise you to note how often in a situation of "oversupply" and industry bearishness, a commodity puts in a bottom and presents a marvelous marketing opportunity ( see my previous post re Arden's comments ) . In '94 I did a study and a pitch to several capital groups that the shares of independent oil & gas drillers should be accumulated in a targeted fund project. I made projections of 200% profits ( conservative ) to these people in 2 years of waiting time. I wanted to use late '94 and all of '95 to accumulate shares. No one bit. They were all scared of cheap oil & gas and the fact that the drilloers were in the toilet. THAT IS JUST THE TIME TO BUY. My personal portfolio benefitted from this strategy, but I think of the millions that could have been made with these people aboard, and a tear comes to my eye. Now I see oil & gas deals going down at 400 - 500% the prices I was hawking these stocks at! Just as one example, and only as an example, not to exhalt myself, I bought Rowan for my own account at $7.50 or so a share just a couple of years ago. Today it's $40 bucks! Can you imagine what a few million in these stocks in '95 would be doing now?. I think energy has had a tremendous move, but strangely enough, there IS the possibility that a pardigm that involves collapsed trust in paper will elevate basic resources rapidly, in a panic move. Oil's immediate utility as a commodity in all its uses for human survival leaves it vulnerable to political control and regulation - more so than gold - in a crisis. Gold won't keep us warm in winter, nor will it run our cars and machinery. Yet gold is the essence of ALL natural commodities, and natural law actions of human effort. Their re-linking will arrive once more under crisis and upheaval, more likely than not.

Herr Sig, before I respond to your morning post I must say how much I agree with Donald's earlier 5:49 post to you about the wave of DEFLATIONARY forces about to engulf this highly leveraged, reverently idolized TOWER OF BABEL called the US stock market! This market is built on an unprecedented flood of paper promises that CANNOT and WILL NOT be honored! The Nikeii analogy is a good one and well supported by the facts. However, UNLIKE the Japanese stock market bubble, American citizens have BORROWED AND LEVERAGED EVERY CONCEIVABLE FORM OF SAVINGS in this country has to feed this paper monster, hoping against hope that it could forever be sustained ( 80% of investors according to one recent poll believe that the average annual return on their stock index mutual fund will AVERAGE 34%!!!!over the NEXT 10 YEARS!!!!Talk about irrational exhuberance!!!! ) at least until THEY are ready to cash in and retire! Only one problem with that scenario! EVERBODY AGREES WITH IT! And when everybody agrees about anything you can take it to the bank--IT AIN'T A GONNA' HAPPEN!! Japan's bubble burst despite the fact it had a balance of trade surplus greater than any other nation on earth and was a creditor nation with the highest savings rate in the world! What do you think is going to happen to our great paper bubble when it finally sinks into the Freudian subconscious that THERE AIN'T NOTHING MORE TO LEVERAGE!! IT'S ALL IN THE MARKET!! And the ever greater hoards of cash necessary to sustain it ain't being created fast enough because the world is CONTRACTING not EXPANDING as we had dreamed!! No, Herr Sig, Herr Donald, Herr Glenn, Herrn Nicks et al. We're in for one of the scariest damn economic roller coaster rides we've ever been on and we better hold on tight to our real wealth--GOLD---or we're all headed for certain disaster with all the social fallout such a sad scenario connotes!

Now, Herr Sig, what you say in your morning post to me about this being a new era of good feeling, endless optimism, empowered self-awareness, global consciousness, growing wealth and utopian cosmic transformation of man's basic innate proclivities toward evil, greed, hatred, ad nauseam is the kind of stuff we hear at every crucial TURNING POINT in world history, especially this one becaue of all the NEW AGE PHILOSOPHICAL BULLSCHEISS about a quantum evolutionary leap into cosmic consciousness as we enter the NEW AGE OF AQUARIUS! ( Help me out MIKE! ) I hate to disillusion you, Herr Sig, BUT IT'S ALL ALOT OF COW MANURE!! Human nature IMHO can never be transformed by impersonal cosmic forces or economic prosperity or governmental tyranny, but can ONLY be transformed by a personal relationship with ( I hesitate to say it because I don't want to become guilty of proselytizing ) the LIVING LORD GOD! Since I don't see such a radical trasnformation of the collective world soul occuring in this or any other era of human history, I believe that human nature will remain human nature and that war, hatred, greed, fear et al. will unfortunately carry the day in this new age as well as the old one and lead us all back to square one to start the whole cycle all over again!

Sorry Herr Sig! I wish I could share your unbounded optimism about a new paradigm shift in cosmic consciousness taking place in America and the world, but a close study of world history tells me that it ain't possible! When will Americans wake up to the fact that their destinies are controlled by the dark forces of cartels, mass media spin doctors, big government bureaucrats, central bankers, socialist do-gooders and charismatic politicians out to enrich themselves at the expense of hardworking American citizens? Until they do it'll just be more of the same, business as usual, dog-eat dog, shell-game mass delusion, UNTIL THE DEFLATIONARY TIDAL WAVE hits in earnest to expose all the phony promises and hyped-up dreams and bring us all back to some semblance of REALITY!
If all this sounds like some sicko-misanthrope out to spoil the new age
celebration of cosmic consciousness and global awareness and a new age economic paragigm then so be it! IMHO it is still THE TRUTH!! Wiedersehen, Mein Freund.

ted---

SEE---------it IS a whole 'nother world!!
gee whiz--you took the pebble on the first try!

now is how--------

JT8D-9A: Welcome. Yes, you're too sensitive. One of the wonderful surprises in life is finding out how much we have all been led astray by the thoughts and "authority" of others - most notably "experts." Some here rail against "self-styled" experts, but I offer that the most dangerous are the ACCEPTED experts. These people perpetuate ignorant misapprehensions in Medicine, Religion, Science, Economics, and every significant walk of human life. Their thinking, often totally erroneous, keeps the people ignorant, while those who make unique breakthroughs in ways to conceive a problem or situation are reviled and set upon by unreasoning hordes. It's an old story. As you may have noted, one of the great advantages of Kitco is that there are numerous minds here working to get beyond the generally accepted story of how things are. When you realize that most people don't know what they are talking about, you are on the road to knowledge and power of the most eternal and uplifting kind. You will also recognize how much of a fool you are, and that is the most priceless revelation a person can have. Have fun.

ARDEN, MIKE SHELLER: I object to Arden continuing to use this site to promote his company but even more significantly for Mike Sheller, who I have lost respect for because of it, to act as his "Shill". If you want to advertise, BART has provided a site for this.

GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: You take the golden Cheescake on that post! Amen brother. For astrological confirmation of your vision, see my essay THE AQUARIAN IMPERATIVE at the Astrological Investor feature at http://www.gold-eagle.com ( the gold digest section ) It's the piece dated at the end of June I believe. Those who mouthe the platitudes you describe are not aware of the work, effort, integrity, soul-searching, and , yes, "godliness" it takes to create a better world. Those who are trying are indeed the salt, without which this would all lose its savor. Sort of like RJ leaving Kitco ( but not of such biblical proportions ) .

mike sheller----

excellent!!

tape your eyes at night,
it'll block-out un-wanted ( in ) sight.

great re-tort!------no reference to our resident tort ( squeezer ) -----

ted-------am in sync with the cosmos, have much to tell and no
time to relay due to NOW. ( has nothing to do with liberal women! )
will force the fingers to walk the talk when the lake has given,
from its' luminescent depths, all that a carbo\astro\naut can
drink in a draught....er...??..hmmmm...?ss...ss....mmmmmmmm....ahhhhh
yes.......

life is good-------------
you do what YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO DO!!!

have fun, and NOW! what else is there? self-inflicted misery?
take the first step-------the next will come as naturally as
air to a cappillary--------time is short.......and so is the
next step........take-it grass-hopper---------

cherokee!; ) out-a-here------dotssmfatimm-----to-buzz-with-the-bees

T-away!!!!!

SEELARK: I do not "shill" for anything I do not belive in, find illegal or immoral. And I use MY own judgement for that. I have always acted according to my convictions, and that includes the work and projects I have undertaken, both paying and nonpaying, both business, and "charity." I don't live my life making the distinctions you do. I am who I am. If we have not been discreet enough, I am sure we will be warned by the proper housekeeper. This site is about making money in the PM markets. I do my best to think about ways to do this, and share them freely with others. It is their choice to either laugh at me, as some do, or nod in agreement, as do others. If I bring a valid business concept to the table, it is because I believe in it. Thou shalt not muzzle the oxen, while he treadeth out the corn.

REGARDING THE LESS THAN DESIREABLE POSTS...

I haven't had the time that I'd like to to take in all the messages, and I for sure have missed some of hepcat's or whoever. Otherwise he would have been told that it was time to go home.

When something appears here that seems to bear the signature of hepcat or a hepcat wannabe ( who would want to be? ) , then please send me the date and time of the post by email.

Everyone is here as our guest. It's not a big deal to forcibly eject someone for unruly beahviour. In fact the bouncers can even be srawny 98 lb guys whose pocket protectors double as eyeglass holders.

Forcing registration using passwords or displaying an ID# that's unique to the source as opposed to the handle could be done. But I would only want to use it as a last resort.

Amex, Nasdaq, NYSE
New highs vs new lows.
Advancers vs decliners.

Good indicators of optimism/pessimism.
Notice how unafraid the market was during the the last 6 weeks.
No fear - they thought the markets would go higher!
I like the potential strength behind this first thrust.
I see a definite change of trend.
Bull dying. Bear arising.

Dows massive upthrust and eventual return to reality.

Dow - Gold.
Where is the equilibrium.
If paper is to thrown out the window then gold will arise almighty.

Just as the Dow bulls were caught napping!!
So be the Gold bears too!!!!!

The signs for Gold's next move are already inplace.
We have all seen them and felt them.
Some of us have placed our 'gut' in front of our minds and moved already.
The rest still think indecission - uncertainty???

Remember to look for the signs, follow them with you gut.

Look far and wide for every little bit of info to help convice your minds.
Or just 'feel' what you already know.

Follow in the path of Cherokee for he has seen into the future and planted his seeds.

My only fear is that the mania will get out of hand and be uncontrolable.
I would rather see a 40% correction than a 60% +++ correction.
I wish not for the destruction of this world's assets.
These assets make our live's comfortable.

Be it what it may, there is the next tsunami on the horizon - Y2K.
This will affect us all.
And will compound on the excesses.
That this global expansion has created.
IMHO

5 more charts to follow.

5 more charts to follow.

2

3 more charts to follow.

Last one.

JT8D-9A ( are you really in the air? ) : I've never been able to buy the distinction you are alluding to; a democracy is "a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usu. involving periodically held free elections"
( Merriam Webster's Collegiate Dictionary, Tenth Ed. ) . How does the US fail to qualify as democracy under the definition above? Note that a republic
( again using Webster ) is "a government having a chief of state who is not a monarch and who in modern times is usu. a president." Of course, a constitutional republic is simply a republic which has a constitution. Thus Britian, for example, is both a democracy and a republic, but not a constitutional republic, unless the UK has recently adopted a constitution ( as has been publicly debated of late ) . And the US is all three.

%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%
If I have not seen as far as others, it is because giants were standing on my shoulders.
--Hal Abelson

I am Homer of Borg! Prepare to be... Ooooooo! Donuts!

Some mornings, it's just not worth chewing through the leather straps.
-- Emo Phillips
%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%

All,
If you are interested in a gold/PGM major resource that is about to rise significantly ( double by '98 ) , check out http://www.ipmcf.com
Read the included third party reports for independent evaluations. The SI thread is 23,000 some messages, too long for browsing, but the salient info is in the company web site. I have been long this outfit since early spring and have followed its activities closely. There has been a great deal of dd done, much of it behind the scenes. Some 20 funds now own a fair chunk of the company. IPM has had nothing but terrible press plus a major disinformation and shorting campaign, and it is still holding on to 100% gains since last year. A major independent verification report by Behre Dolbear & Bateman Engineering is due out in the next several weeks. The deposit is in Arizona, a large placer deposit with unusual mineralization. A standard type of fire assay has been developed. Much drilling has already been accomplished. Many of the pieces are in place for a major mine. So far, the BRE-X scam, the weakness in gold, and the disinformation have kept this company pretty much out of sight. The coming report is about to move it into view ( with the resulting rise in price ) . Much obliged to the many fine posts I've enjoyed here. Hoping ina a small way to reciprocate, etc.
John

Carl 12:04 - It seems like the 70's to me also. I've been posting tidbits
for the last 2 months on the similarities. Crude options are really
cheap for 12/98. I have open orders for some right now.

Strange how things turn out - RJ and John both started posting here
around the same time as I remember. Both were boastful and obnoxious ( IMO ) .
They were the 3-2-5 boys. After the 325 call came to be - their paths
seperated. RJ changed his style of posts and some of contents alittle
and became one of Kitco's most respected contributors. John changed his
style of posts and some of the contents and became the the ultimate
anti-kitco poster. Fast forward to today and RJ has joined the list of
ex-kitcoites that John has driven away. Who would of ever thought it
would of ended up like this?

Ron and JT8D-9A: When the government owns or controls the means of production by regulation, threat of confiscation and imminent domain, then we ought to call it fascism, collectivism, or socialism but certainly not democracy or a republic. You guys are straining out gnats and swallowing a camel. No genuine republic has a BATF, DEA, FBI, IRS, INS, DMV, etal. The Republic is dead, long live the Republic.

Dave Sissom aka Speed: Those are indeed some hairy humps you've listed. Believe me, they didn't go unnoticed going down.

Mike Sheller: Good post on the energy situation. I made good money in the oil service stocks in 1993. but missed this latest move. I stayed out because I did not see oil prices really taking off until the year 2000 or so. Oil prices have indeed gone nowhere, but the oil stocks and especially the oil service stocks have skyrocketed anyway. This move has been driven by radical cost cuts, vastly improved technology which makes it profitable to drill at much lower oil price levels than in the past, and the fact that much of the industry's capacity was shut down during the lean years leading to equipment shortages and skyrocketing rates when demand picked up.

I was letting the 1970s energy paradigm ( energy stocks move in lock step with oil prices ) govern my investment strategy and missed the brand new energy stock paradigm of the 1990s. An expensive lesson, but one I will never forget.

Today I talked to a preteenager about his "investments". He collects Star Wars memorabilia. He told me that when he went to the toy store to get the early morning good buys he had to fight with a crowd of GROWN MEN, all pushing and shoving like fishwives to grab the toys off the shelves. He laughed at me when I told him he needed to diversify with a 1/10 oz. gold Eagle or two. This is the same kid who asked me about how to open a brokerage account last month and who is getting tired of the low yeilds he's getting on his passbook account an his Series EE's. True story.

I'm always kind of intrigued with the type of things that people collect as collectibles--now gold and silver are one thing, but baseball cards, comic books and stamps are something else altogether. I have a hard time getting excited about something that a good fire will reduce to ashes. Why would anyone really want an old Superman comic book. I used to read them religiously ( actually not in church ) when I was young and I was addicted as the next guy but why keep them around the house for years for appreciation purposes. Doesn't the paper get old and moldy over the years. We are not talking about the Mona Lisa here with comic books or stamps. I would prefer to stick with something that won't go up but which probably will never erode. The Bible talks about not putting your riches where moth and rust will corrupt--sounds like biblical advise to buy gold and silver. Right? Probably not but better than those paper investments where the old moth has his heyday. Cherokee, thanks for the retort. Two torts are better than one tort and you might squeeze two as easily as one. Good day all I'm off to see the grandkid.

GEORGE COLE: George, when I was selling ( shilling? ) my energy play in '94, crude was at $14 a bbl and Nat gas was a buck and change. I KNEW it was a cycle trough ( I had some incredible astrological and technical work to back me up ) . Yes, there was cost cutting, technical improvements, etc, as a RESULT of the poor energy market. But it was LOW underlying product ( commodity ) prices that made the play. Just like Gold & Silver today.
This is the bottom line, always.

CherOkee: It appears you have a head start on mois....I say no mas to the wood operation and time for Pina Coladas .....and a smoke ( right Willy! ) ..
ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....

To Nick@Aussie

Re: 13:34 post today of gold and Dow chart.

I know there has been a lot of disscussion about Dow gold ratios on this site, and todays post was very informative. Surely for the Gold Dow Ratio to be a valid indicator of potential market action I think a correlation between the two either negative or positve must be shown. Nick could you, with the data you have do a simple linear regression of weekly Dow Gold values. Eye balling the chart suggests that there are periods of both positive and negative correlations. e.g. positive correlation for period leading up to the 87 crash, and v strong negative correlation since Feb this year. So it might be quite informative to break up the periods for each regression by either gold or Dow significant tops and bottoms. I wonder what causes the changing in correlation from positive to negative and what would be the length of time for each correlation phase. What would it all mean?


Or maybe you could email me a gold-dow-date table. in txt or excel 95 format and then I could play with the nummers.

Headline in the NEW YORK OBSERVER -- "Elaine Gazarelli Says Bear Markets Soon to be Extinct"

This has got to be a contrarion's dream. The seer who called the 1987 crash now says bear markets are a thing of the past. Inflation is dead, according to Elaine. Consequently the Fed will never again aggressively raise rates. And bear markets are impossible without aggressive Fed tightening. A 10% correction is as bad as it gets from here on out according to Elaine

Keep buying the dips ladies and gentlemen! Let the good times roll and roll and roll.

Mike Sheller: Speaking of shillings, I made a few on SSC, THANKS for the timely info. What do you think abot SSC for the longer term? Have you any thoughts about Hecla ( HL ) ?

George Cole: Isn't she the same Elaine Gazarelli who issued a sell signal at the exact bottom in June-July '96? Her clients missed the big stock run of the fall and sold at the worst possible time.

CherOkee + all: Just got a phone call from neighbor Liz ( Eddie's wife ) wants me ta put their roast in the oven ( me a vegatarian ) as they are in Sydney ( 30 minutes AWAY ) @ a bar....with friends......gettin hammered!...and me just tryin ta work on me first one and then to get so rudely interupTED.....BBL...go gold+ Swan's Island....

Elaine Garzarelli is an IDIOT!!!!****....How many DWI's does she have NOW??--EB: How could you???....root for a team with Gary Shefield on it??...Go tribe! and yes the wife just got back from puttin their damn roast in the oven....NOW we are feeding Willy+ Eva ( their dogs??? ) ...life goes on ( ? ) in Cape Breton....later dudes......much..

George Cole: Thanks for the 'heads up' about Gabby's strange new theory. It's not characteristic for her to make such strange pronouncements; I wonder what happened. Did she mention that in a 10% correction the market can easily overcorrect for another 10% or 15% for a day or so? Using an adaptation of some of her older work the market was overvalued until it corrected this week. ( If we use a P/E 23+ bond rate 6.4+ inflation rate 2.9 that falls into the 32+ range where it corrected this summer, too. )

When the bear market arrives, elaine garzarelli will likely claim she really said "Bear markets really stink" rather than "bear markets nearly extinct.".

Tort: "Clinton Stuff" was great!!!! printed it ...a keeper...Have fun with the grandkid.....Later...and this time I mean it!!!

Brings to mind mental pictures of Jean Paul Marat and beautiful Charlotte Corday: http://www.afr.com.au/content/971018/perspective/perspective2.html

Ted - Gary was a damn good Sadre...

So, are ya' feelin lucky?? 5 Bucks??

away...to find Mr. October


George Cole, Mike Sheller,all: I just backed out of my oil/energy positions in the last few days. What is your impression of this market for the next 6 months or so -- Oil and natural gas usually go up about this time, but it has gone up so much already, we have relative peace in the middle east, and the En Nino is reputed to give us a warm winter.

Barring an energy crisis, and the uncertainty in the market, I'm tempted just to wait for the gold rally. Opinions?

In thinking about the gold market, three possible scenarios come to mind.

Scenario number one: RJ is right! Gold is smashed to $300 or less in a final vicious sell off as the shorts go all out following the announcement of further large CB sales. This leads to a V bottom and a huge rebound in gold and gold shares after all but the most stubborn longs have been shaken out. Bottom line -- a lot of near-term pain, but the big gains begin fairly soon.

Two: Gold and gold shares form an extended base near current levels. Say $320-$340 for bullion and 95-110 for XAU. Long period of low gold prices triggers more mine closures and mergers. Eventual upside breakout signals a secular gold bull that carries the yellow well over $1000 soon after the millennium. Bottom line -- not too much more near-term pain, but investors will have too wait awhile for the big gains.

Scenario three -- the gold complex embarks on a new secular bull in the near future without much more downside or basing action. Big gains start soon without any more pain.

Scenario two seems most probable. Just as the stock market most likely will have to go through an extensive topping process before the secular financial bull ends, so the will the gold market have to base for quite some time before the next bull is born. That is unless, we get the kind of super smash RJ anticipates

Still do not think a big gold bull can begin until investors are convinced the lengthy bull markets in stocks, bonds, and the dollar are over or will soon be over, All three of these bulls are very powerful and will not be reversed overnight.

DAVE SISSOM: Neat screen handle. Hold your SSC. The real money in a stock like this is in a full-blown gold & silver rally. Odds are we're in the early stages of one. Next target is 1 3/4 on SSC, where it meets very heavy stress line junctures on the price chart, as well as the overhanging downtrend line since the '80 peak. If it gets thru 1 3/4 lookout. That will signal not just a PM rally, but the launch of a major secular gold & silver bull. Then you can expect a move to around 3 1/4 before a likely retracement to $2ish for a time. But then the longterm trend will be up. 2005-2006 is the BIG boom for silver. This SSC is a LONGTERMMMMMM hold.

JFT: I may be naive, but it seems to me the energy stocks have already discounted all possible good news barring a 1973 style energy crisis. As with virtually the entire market except gold, the upside potential seems limited compared to the downside risk. I do not think these issues will be a safe haven when the markets tanks unless oil prices surge in a big way.

JTF: As I said before I was a raging bull on oil & gas in '94 and '95. I bought Rowan at 7.50 and Comstock Resources at 3.25 or so. Within a Year and a half I sold them both as triples, and now Rowan is $40!!!!. I for one can't go back into energy. If you're going to commit yourself to something that is in the hurting part of the cycle, Get Real...Get Gold. Gold shares now are like energy shares in '94-'95. They are cheap. Even if gold bullion goes lower, they are cheap. Patience and fortitude, and a chunk of stocvk here, a chunk of stock there. In a couple of years it will start to make a big difference in your account.

re energy - My thinking precisely, George.

Just Havin a REAL Guiness Stout brought back by a friend who visited Ireland. The difference between the real thing and what THEY allow here is amazing.

Dave's 14:01/ True Democracy and a Republic can not exist without a balance between absolute freedom and Central Govt Regulation. It is the regulation that protects the many from the "freedom" some would like to use to adversely affect the many or just a persecuted few. The US has a very good balance between our judicial/legislative and executive branches. Our legal system and regulations allows for recourse against the powerful and rich by the poor and middle class when the are wrongly aggrieved. Developments in the employment and labor areas are becoming more progressive. Newt's tort reform has been effectively newtered. In sum, protections for the people are developing and remain in place. We should all celebrate this. We need to improve by shoring up the Social Security system and enacting some sort of national health care like Canada or Europe. The US is the only major country without universal health care insurance for this we should hang our heads in shame ( and that includes Newt/the pro tort reform AMA and THE BIG insurance lobby )

Thanks George Cole, and Mike Sheller - You both confirmed my impression of the oil stocks - too high to weather trouble in the market. Gold stocks look the best ( most downtrodden ) by far -- barring the 1987 style crash. You know -- a few months of up and down on the Dow, and we might have that sneak to the exits to buy gold stocks. We just have to be patient, and most likely - wait till January.

Seelark - I do not use this site to promote my company nor any other company. Unlike
many posters here I give my real name and real email address. I have met many fine
people by email and subsequently in person. I post my ideas to let people know what I
think. I have been chastised for not sharing all of my ideas on Kitco. Ever since I
received a very nasty threat from someone who didn't like what I had to say about Bre-X
last February I have kept my detailed ideas off of the internet and share them with people
who have an interest expressed in their email to me. I have great respect for Mike Sheller
and his ideas. We have many common areas of interest. He is by no means my "shill' His
comments are his own, as mine are my own.

WW: Hi WW. Enjoy your Guinness! Have one for me too. I'm too tired to fight with you tonite ( ;- ) )

Mike Sheller: Thanks

WW: I feel really safe now, NOT! Waco, Ruby Ridge, latest revelations about the IRS, and 900 FBI files illegally parked at the White House all paint a very clear picture of government against the people, for the few and out of control. The "feel good" government has spent the last 50 years spending us into debt. They have removed us from the gold standard and lately have refinanced most of the U.S. debt with short-term instruments. The U.S. treasury is being forced to purchase bonds because foreign governments don't want them all, so our M2 and M3 numbers are going up. In short, our freedoms have been seriously eroded and shortly our financial well-being will take a big hit. The really sad part is that many other countries will suffer from our arrogance. India is getting smart fast, maybe others will follow before it's too late. I have God and gold covered, it's time to look at some guns.

Master Sun: Looking at the Dow/Gold chart posted by Nick@Aussie at 13:34 and attempting to find some predictive value seems worthwhile. The major difference between Nick's chart and the bb fisher full century chart is that Nick has priced gold in dollars thus the inflationary bias is shown. The bb fisher chart uses ounces thus gold is a flat line and only the Dow fluctuates in ounces of gold required to purchase it.

I think that the predictive value of the divergence shown by Nick is that INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS are shown. The period from 1983 to 1987 reflects a fear in a resurgence of inflation like the 70's. The Crash of 87 evaporated those fears and the price of gold since then has generally trended down since that event. Nick's chart no shows no fear of inflation now but the divergence instead represents DEFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS having traveled in the extreme to the other direction.

All: Tung Chee-hwa is Hong Kongs power broker for China. He recently visited Malaysia, Singapore, and spent three days in Japan.
He is obviously a key spokesman for China's new role in SE Asia. News reports associated with his name may be productive in determining mainland China's financial status.
We may be seeing a major shift of the SE Asian countries from the US and Europe, with the strengthening of an economic block at least equal in power to the Americas, and the European community -- as a consequence of the SE Asian financial crisis.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971018/world/world2.html

We do not Discredit that art of the pilot for its many errors.Ptolemy are you in Alexandria? Maybe with your friends Hipparchus and Posidonius? Time is moving backwards to catch the past.Today we are moving forward to catch the future .Happy Trails

David the corrollary of the out of control govt is an out of control downsizing stk option and merger crazy economically violent private sector/ which still sucks at the govt welfare tit and is killing the "economically adequate jobs" ( SEE recent Wash Post ) at record levels and making more people potentially dependent on the govt. Clinton is transient and even though I dont like him he has made some good decisions 1 ) Family Medical Leave Act 2 ) Not interfering in the UPS Teamsters affair 3 ) opposing school vouchers and 4 ) Working for environmental and Labor stds in trade agreements. Bad points NAFTA and weakness in agreements with Japan and human rights re China also late term abortion
The fact is that the legal system and govt regulation tempers the freedom of those who now must hold back their latent 19th century attitudes about work and labor. Therefore, govt regulations and the legal system by restraining the excesses of the private sector in fact, provide greater bargaining power and freedom to the vast majority of our citizens. Where govt goes wrong is when it provides corporate welfare to private entities without ensuring compliance with good social policy/ although this positive aspect is at times evident. NEWT to the dust bin of history!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/17/y0023_z00_1.html

JTF, now understand why the centre of the universe is in Orion's belt.. darned hollywood ruins all the good stories huh?

Mike Sheller, Thanks for continuing the metaphors of the progressions of the month in our language ;- )

E, my pleasure my ascii friend

elf, Agree,thanks for corrections ! am enjoying the Gallic perspective.

All G'day.. Been nursin' a broken head since last nonsensemoonsense post. turned pooter off.

Waz goin' on? felinewise? is there some kind of idea of subscriptions? I'd be happy to triple current costs. will you accept emu-e-gold creds Bart?

A federal commission's
proposed overhaul of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code will be turned over to Congress and
President Bill Clinton tomorrow. That will be a starting point as a Senate Judiciary
subcommittee opens hearings Tuesday on changes in the code.

The panel recommends several ways of easing up on personal bankruptcy filers, such as
forgiving most credit-card debt that's taken on 31 days or more before the cardholder files
for personal bankruptcy ( presently, luxury items that are charged to credit cards can only
be forgiven if incurred 61 days or more before a filing ) , and forgiving student-loan debt,
except loans taken out for medical school. However, the panel also wants to make it
harder to file repeat bankruptcies.

Banks and consumer-finance companies don't like the idea of making it easier for folks to
slip their creditors, and will fight the proposals. Personal bankruptcy filings are expected to
hit a record 1.3 million this year.

H'Day Aurator: ( one-upsmanship to a higher level than G'Day )

Dave you mention Ruby Ridge, Waco and the FBI Files. The first two were regretable but are the exception as opposed to the rule over the long history of our Federal Govt. As to the FBI Files what happened / nothing b/c there was nothing illegal, Further Ronnie ( originator of the current financial Ponzi ) solicited funds in the White House and sold arms to IRAN ! Wake up call needed. His buddy Ollie lied to Congress! Get real man!

Donald's mention of the proposed Bankruptcy Code reform is a perfect example of Govt working for the people. The debt has to be foregiven with ease and the Banks and Credit agencies should pay for their aggressive marketing in pursuit of luring people to spend more and get into debt. GO GOVT Commission!

re: Ollie lying to Congress

Ollie could have compromised many lifes in NSA/CIA take your pick. Besides, is lying to liars wrong?

http://www.theage.com.au:80/daily/971018/news/news17.html

Aurator: Great to have you on-line before my usual crash time!
To all: Some good sites on China below, even if they are thousands of miles away in Canada. Discussions there are more likely to be candid. Haven't digested them fully yet, but am wondering if the debt situation may not be that bad. Mike Sheller would have said something by now if he thought mainland China was in trouble.

Info on SOE restructuring - China must restructure its losing state-owned enterprises ( SOEs ) to join the WTO, and to encourage more foreign investors. Banking reform needs are also discussed:
http://www.ccbc.com/analysis-comment.html-ssi

Economic Recovery Underscores Policy Dilemma:
Bank of China unlikely to cut interest rates, because would increase risk of a market bubble. Balance of payments surplus likely to cause RMB to rise ( not fall ) incontrast to South Korea and Thailand. Other ideas to loosen money supply are being considered, instead of dropping rates.
Beijing is to double issuance of corporate bonds and shares this year, and to tap the convertible and foreign bond markets.
http://www.ccbc.com/ecorec.html-ssi

"One Country-Two Systems: Discussion of how to merge Hong Kong and China economically. It is quite clear that Hong Kong will be China's main economic spokesman to the rest of the world for some time.
http://www.ccbc.com/letter.html-ssi

My take from this -- China's problems may be overblown -- will keep digging. Long term there is no question that China will be a leading world power rivaling ( or surpassing ) the US.

Donald: Hope the China stuff interests you in my previous post. Will return later this evening.

WW- Why is it that I can avoid taking on credit card debt even though I have a drawer full of solicitations, and a equal number of phone solicitations, but those poor, downtrodden souls whose existence liberals depend upon can't seem to muster a ounce of self control?
I'll give you a hint- because people like yourself are always ready to shoulder their burdens. I guess that's more than a hint, but you get my point.

WW: Regrettable? How many people have to be hunted, shot or burned alive before you can say outrageous or intolerable? Charles Colson spent time in jail for having 1 FBI file. There is only one party, the "government" party and they have you completely mesmerized.

LBMA EXPOS: PART 7 ( October 20, 1997 ) A Collective-Mind Analysis Compiled by Red Baron

The Onion PARADOX peels yet another layer away from the eventual truth of the LONDON BULLION MARKETING ASSOCIATION...:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron1020.html

http://www.webpage.com:80/hindu/daily/971018/06/06180002.htm

Thanks to Ted and JTF for your input on inflation. I understood what you said, unlike the responses I read from others.

Comments from others on SSC holders to "hang in there" caaught my attention, since this is exactly what I've been doing. Wonder if the same advice applies to SSRIF and some of the Canadian stocks like AMP, IAU, KIT, etc.

I keep hearing "buy physical." Is everyone dumping metal stocks ( other than SSC ) to buy Eagles, Krugerands, etc. or what?

Hello JT8D-9A: I too was a long time throttle jockey of JT8D's.

WSF/NC No it is people who are apologists and handmaidens for the Corps which are doing violence to the American family which tries to maintain its living std and is sucked in by the Credit card purveyors. It isnt always a question of self control sometimes its a sick child or a parent or child that needs help or someone in need which causes a family to cross the line. Again The new Bankruptcy laws will show
that Democracy works.

Dave/ Corporate violence/layoffs ( just to increase profit ) Bhopal, India/ Thousands killed/ Pinto Blowups killing and injuring many/a myriad of product liability situations where the private sector had no consideration for the public and inflicted violent and grevious injury on many all in the name of profit. Ruby Ridge/Waco? Please get a sense of proportion!

http://www.usnews.com:80/usnews/issue/971027/27glas.htm

http://nt.excite.com:80/reuters/971018/07.BUSINESS-STOCKS.html

http://www.latimes.com:80/HOME/NEWS/WALLSTCA/t000091962.html

Doncha just love it?: Liberals who want you to believe that big corporations are the enemy, whilst it is big government that both solicits bribes from big business and simultaneously sucks 70-75% from the pockets of working stiffs in taxes.

Luckily, the middle class is aware of this ripoff, and the days of liberalism are numbered, both here and throughout the world. The only true believers in socialism/communism left in the world, are right here in the good old US of A, many of them concentrated in that once great state of Vomit . . . uh . . . er . . . I mean Vermont. There are certainly NO believers left in Russia, or anywhere the Kooky Experiment was conducted.

Go gold.

RJ - Surely you jest! In the hope that you are lurking --- because you just can't stay away --- let me add my vote for you to reconsider. You don't need the approval of the juvenile idiots to know when you are making a solid contribution. The serious posters and serious lurkers recognize your contribution and very much appreciate it. Just speak to and listen to us. Eventually, Bart will give in and conclude he most protect this site. Unfortunately, this is the way of the world, and will be until we elect cherokee President.

Nick@Aussie - I may live to regret helping you learn how to post charts! ;- ) )

Great charts. Let's see them regularly as this epic unfolds. At least when they whisper to you that there is pending disturbance in the force.

P.S. - Try using Graphics Workshop to convert your JPG files to GIF. They seem to be much smaller, load much faster, and the quality appears to be the same.

TO WW: Please roll me one out of your bag so I can get as high as you are and comprehend what you are speaking of.

Your conversation is based on a dying philosophy. You like the new banckruptcy laws, so I guess when your esteemed government decides not to make good on it's massive trillions of dollars of debt, that will be okay with you.

My family has had it's share of troubles, we did not whimper and complain nor did we delegate our responsibilites to someone elses pocket book. Your constant theme of the big bad rich and corporate anti-christs just does not cut the mustard for those of us that DO NOT believe that America owes us anything.

You tug at the heart strings mentioning sick children and such, saying that this pushes people past the line. Give me a break. You lived in Camelot and your social programs and unrestrained bad check writing thinking killed the golden egg layer. Now, as history has shown us, you find any and every other factor or group or group of groups to blame.

I'll make those extra large rolling papers at that.

I get a kick out of how anybody who attacks a corp is a commie or a socialist ( Ron ) Get an open mind!
Democracy and the US Legal based system is spreading throughout the world much to the dissappointment and opposition by big money. They would much rather have no labor problems/safe profits etc with a Stalin Hitler Mao type ( the reason they love China as much as they loved Lenin's NEP in the 20s ) . Fact is what the 19th Century Newt Capitalists fear is spreading throughout the world and that is information/TRUE democracy and a demand for a higher std of living. The Eastern Europeans are begging and we are providing a new basis for their system of litigation. For the people against abuse by Capital or Govt. Ron the tide of the world is turning against what you really want. The coming econ debacle will only hasten the end of Newt 's 19th century Capitalist cult appeal and further hasten a true People's Democracy.

Nick@Aussie - Assuming the "fair value" line you drew on the DOW chart does really reflect fair value, it is almost certain that when the DOW seriously heads south, it will overshoot this line, thus ending up well below the "fair value" line. This would put the DOW well under 4000. Yes, this is probably more trauma than any of us would like to see, but it should not be a surprise. It seems that markets are "underdamped" and tend to "ring" or oscillate some when struck with a hammer. Look at gold, when it came off of $800.

Oh WW: Eastern Europeans? Please find a better model for your defense of the bloated, best legal system money can buy contribution for the betterment of the world.

Tolerant 1 and Ron/ I suggest you get it all off your chest/ Go Burn A Book.

ANOTHER:
O.K., It's Saturday, and really looking forward to your post!

WW: My mind is open, thanks. But it's not drafty. There's a difference! Interesting that you believe that the "tide of the world is turning against" democracy and open markets -- which is what I really want -- in the face of the collapse of communism and the almost universal rejection of socialism worldwide.

We'll just have to wait and see, WW. I'd say so far it looks like your team's in trouble. Don't fool yourself into thinking that local sentiment is representative of sentiment in the larger world.

Speaking of teams . . . back to the game!

RJ G'day, no need to get your knickers in a twist @ catcreep don't give him the satisfaction.... Relax, unpack, you're in a new house, regroup and do post again. I bet Irving is better that it sounds.

The action of the last 3 trading days supports the contention that a stock market crash has begun. The stock market must either continue to soar, or crash. There is no in between. When leverage gets this extreme ( which is very rare ) , higher doses of leverage are needed to keep the market moving higher. If the market ever starts to decline, the "margin calls" come due. That causes the leveraging to stop, and the deflationary de-leveraging to start. Unwinding of massive doses of leverage always causes a crash.

The DJIA, the US Dollar, and the Asian markets all peaked in early-August. A close below the support area at DJIA 7500 to 7600 will confirm that the crash has begun. The Asian markets have already broken down, and are close to entering a free-fall. The chaos in Asia is causing Asian central banks to dump US Dollars.

Based on the patterns of previous crashes, the climax of the crash should be reached around the time of Halloween -- October 31, 1997. What a scenario. The crash begins at the time of a full moon ( 6 weeks after a solar eclipse, on October 15th ) , and it reaches the panic stage on Halloween.

LGB -- Trick-or-treat. Shoeshine time on October 31st!!!

Mr. Puetz:
Great to see your name!
Agree with your general perspective, but see the dates as being very risky.
I have concluded that your book has sold out of print....as I have sent you half dozen e-mails to buy one, and don't get a reponse. Just in case there is one more on the shelf somewhere, I just sent you another incoming.
Saludos.
Cmax

I ask you now:  Is it hard to believe or hard to
understand? When it comes to money its
usually both.
Know this: gold transcends human valuations thru time
and life.

. Take your time on this one!
Gold is now caught in a crossfire of world thought.
The traders are viewing it as a commodity and trying
to make money on its moves using various paper
trading vehicles. Their opinion of the market is
flawed because the real value buyers would
never deal with these people or let anyone in that
circle know they are buying gold as money! The
major buying and selling is between CBs, nations,
merchant banks, the super rich and the hordes of
small buyers in forgotten places. That is one of the
small many reasons wall street hates gold, they are
not part of the real action. Comex is a side show!

Let me fill in the Xs.

First a reprint;
You see the trading medium changed. Oil went
from $30++ to $19 + X amount of gold!
Today it costs $19 + XXX amount of gold! 

If you owned a commodity in the ground that had to
be sold for paper currency in order to realize value
what would do? Yes, the oil in the ground may
last another 50+ years but will the bonds and currencies
of other governments last that long? One thing you dont
do is buy gold outright, it would cause it to stop trading
as a commodity and start trading as money! You learned
that in the late 70s. Nor do you acquire real gold money
in any fashion that would allow a comparison of price
trends ( graphs ) ! There must be a way to convert the
true wealth of oil into the outright wealth of gold.
We know that oil is a consumed wealth of a momentary
value that is lost in the heat of fire.
The stars blink and it is oil wealth no more!
It has become the debt of nations  now
owed to you. Gold on the other hand is not a
commodity as many assume, as it is truly
the wealth of nations  meant to last thru the ages!
A wise oil nation can strike a deal with the paper
printers and in doing so come out on top. Go back
a few years to the early 90s. Oil is very high, you
offer to lower the US$ price in return for X amount
of gold purchasing power. You dont care what the
current commodity price of gold is, your future generations
will keep it as real wealth to replace the oil that is lost.
Before the future arrives gold will be, once again
valued as money and can be truly counted on to
appropriately represent all oil wealth!
The Deal:
We ( an oil state ) now value gold in trade
far higher than currencies. We are willing to use gold
as a partial payment for the future use of all oil and value
it at $1,000 US. ( only a small amount of oil is in this deal )
And take a very small amount of gold out of circulation each
month using its present commodity price.
If the world price can be maintained in the $300s
it would be a small price for the west to pay for
cheap oil and monetary stability.

The battle is now between CBs trying to keep
gold in the $300s and the others buying it up.
In effect the governments are selling gold in any
form to KEEP IT being used as REAL MONEY
in oil deals! Some people know this, that is why
they arent trading it,, they are buying it.

Not all oil producers can take advantage of this
deal as it is done where noone can see. And, they
know not what has happened for gold does not
change in price! But I tell you, gold has been
moved and its price has changed in terms of oil!
For the monthly amount to be taken off the market
has changed from $10 in gold ( valued at $1,000 )
/per barrel to the current $30 in gold /per barrel still valued at $1,000!
Much of this gold was in the form of deals in
London to launder its movement.
Because of some Asians, these deals are
no longer being rolled over as paper!

What is happening now is far, far larger than the
interest of a few traders or mining companies. They
will be stepped on!

more on US$ and T-bills.

seelark---

re-gardless of connatative dissonance.....
your handle be-speaks volumes...
wish it was mine! what a nomer!!

what a day---------the Gold and Silver tunes,
and their resplendent hues, what a time to beeeee
in the now------------wow-------------

gold calls for cerveca dinero------my-oh-my-----
the trend reversal is at hand-------imnsho-------

cherokee-----@phalangeal-disability-city

cherokee!; ) seeing-from-ALL-aspects-------rj---you-lurking-dog------
ksera-sera----------dday--foryou----t-way---------lions and tigers
and eb oh my----------

Another 21:04 - Hard to believe.

WW- I'll try again. BTW, I am no apologist for Corporate America. I have stated here many times my own experience with ficticious earnings in companies for which I have worked.
I think you avoided my question, but that is true to form given my experience with liberals. Let me put it this way- if I were 22 years old, with no ethics, I would max every credit card I could, buy as leveraged a position long the market as I could, and hope to retire wealthy at 25. The down side? Zero! Because hapless souls such as yourself are there to bail me out! You deserve what you get, but the unfortunate thing is that you bring me down because you put your misguided altruism into law. If it weren't for that last point, I wouldn't care a bit about your liberal proclivities. But that's a big if, which is why I depise the views you advance here.

Yup......

To all- I've been gone awhile- is Who Cares still with us?

I said Democracy and a US based Type legal system was on the rise worldwide. I think your side is losing/ especially if they misread like you did. Sorry pal for your Newtered political predicament.

ANOTHER:
WOW! Talk about "ask and ye shall recieve".........that was fast.
As usual, you have completly blown me off my chair, and my eyes out of my head. ( Ifyou could see it, you would think it is quite comical.
Thank you.

You, Mr., have answered one of my oldest questions, in that WHY would the Arabs be so shortsighted as to sell all their re-valued oil ( after the OPEC oil crisis ) and deposit all that money it into Western banks, only for the same bankers to reloan it out to sooooo freely as they did to developing countries ( as local economy could not absorb such huge quantities/inflation etc ) , not ever to be returned. This circle just did not make any sense. Their oil is very finite, and I always though that their new found wealth wouldescape them as easily as they discovered it. ( as per axiom: a fool and his money are soon parted ) Now if they have been trading oil for cash plus an amount equivalent to their net profit in gold, now THAT does make sense. These intricate workings, which can
now be seen in hindsight, are interesting indeed!
Never doubt Arab wisdom.

Now the Asians were the kings of paper money and its consequences 5,000 years ago, they know very well what the final outcome of this fraud will be; and they do not fall into westerners mindless mindtraps so easily. They Oriental is an excellent student of history, the average Westerner doesnt even know the mechanics of the second world war ( particularly
Americans ) . If as you imply, that they have caught on to what is happening in this shell game, THEY have forced papers hand, which has forced the Arabs hand, which MUST now force the CBs hand to either put up, or shut up ( expose and sell their REAL physical supply ) .
My oh my oh my.

Please continue....

make-my-day---------

Tolerant1 ( 20:25 ) give em ( ww ) hell....he deserves it!...Death to all socialists+ Liberals....CherOkee: consider it made.....

ANOTHER:
Your posts have answered my questions to that first LBMA announcement back in Januarary, and my subsequent posts..... and no one really paid attention then. ( except Vronsky )
My e-mail is force@enlared.net. Any contact or info would is appreciated, and absolute descretion observed.

After FIVE years in Cape Breton I've seen the "end result" of extreme liberalism...---and it ain't pretty!...EB: even though tribe trails 6-2..yer on dude ( oh my ) ....Back to the now.....ommmmmmmmmmmmmm

TO: WW - My first suggestion is that you drink the water from your bong after you finish watching the MOD SQUAD.

Link, Pete and Julie's legal based system is not spreading through the world. Newt...is this the best poster child you can come up with to headline your baseless argument.

I hope you choose investments more wisely than your political philosophies. But, then, even a blind chicken gets a kernel of corn once in a while.

WW: Corporations/Capitalism is generally thought to be amoral, therefore some limited degree of protection is a necessary function of govt. Given that government is naturally covetous of corporate power, it eventually oversteps its bounds with abuse.

Sig OR in reverse.

Tolerant 1 It must be difficult, as a contrarian, that yours and Newt's ideas are and will become more in disrepute. HAR HAR Poor guy

Ted et al. How is being for the spread of US democracy and our preeminent legal system equivalent to socialism. Mc Carthy Lives but FREEDOM and LIBERTY will prevail again!!

TO:WW - You obviously didn't take my advice and drink the bong water.

WW:

Communist China is amoral?

How can you knock these things out so fast!

WSF I am shocked at your intellectual dishonesty. You would have us believe that the ability to abuse credit cards comes solely from the individual and that Corporate greed for higher interest income and aggressive promotions had nothing to do with it. If they give credit to high risk individuals and they lose through bankruptcy isnt that what Capitalism is all about ie risk taking They shouldnt be offering credit to high credit risks anyway and if they do then they assume the risk and should take there losses like good little lads and lassies. Go Bankruptcy Reform!!! Hit im harder! Maybe they'll stop offering credit cards to 16 year olds hoping parents will cover. They desrve it ie The Free Market works!

Would someone repost another's 21:04? I can't open it. Thanks

I have been following this sight for a little awhile with no comments. But this talk on credit cards has hit home. WW is right that the banks are overreaching and pushing credit like the drug boys here in the Southland. The creditors deserve everything they get and then some. Sorry just could not hold my peace.

Never let a liberal convince that you he is for democracy or liberty! Indeed those things are anathema to him. His real goal -- and he will do anything to achieve it: lie, steal, kill -- is the complete subjugation of working people and the poor, so that a small priviledged class of party elite can lead the high life. The PROOF of that claim can be found amongst those many, many countries foolish enough to embrace socialism these last 80 years.

Ron: WW's shanking most of his answers off in the weeds tonight anyway.
He's more humorous than accurate.

Poor Ron: Monopoly Socialism as founded in Russia and still exists in China is the Monopoly Capitalists dream. Most big business types in the US had a love affair with Leninism and the USSR NEP ( read slave labor ) in the 1920s and Love China's Communist slave labor today. Communism is an invention to make working people question defending their rights. Democratic Socialism which is now dominant throughout the world allows for worker greivances. There is some sort of perverted effoert to extol the US economy even though the std of living has fallen from first to thirteenth since 1980. The other countries wont bite ( France for example ) and the competitiveness argument is wearing thin. The Republican Conservative Corporatists have peaked Law and Justice will win as events unfold. I know y'all hate to hear it!

Excellent!

away...to the bbq


anal...er...oral...er...orel couldn't pitch as a dodger either...

sig: You've got that right, sir! I'm just yankin' his chain trying to ruin his night of weenie whacking.

ANOTHER,

I hope you will continue to share your wisdome and knowledge on this site.
Most of Kitcoistes are like you :generous opened human minds.
Even if we are living in a wild jungle, shining nuggets and golden hearts
are the real thrue values in BOZO`s swamp.
Like CMAX I would appreciate a direct contact with you via my E-mail.
I hope I did not offend you when I put together your thoughts and reposted everything.

Oliver

The toughest part of arguing with the Newt people is that, as hard as it is to believe, they actually believe what they are saying. Knowing that many are educated makes it all the more unbelieviable and just maybe a little frightenining.

WW: big business goes where the money is. And in china's case your pals in the whitehouse [and gop] directly benefit! Poor Janet Reno is the only one who can't see the connection.

WW: Poor Ron? How about poor WW? After all, you're the guy who has the job of selling neo-socialism to working stiffs whilst taxing them to the tune of 70%. But they're fed up with it. Nope, WW, I'm afraid socialism is a Twentieth Century phenomenom. It's on its way out. If communism can crumble in a matter of weeks, liberalism can and will disappear in the wink of an eye. Get ready for it.

My great-great-great-great grandfather and his sons chased Tories and Redcoats all over New England in 1776, many of whom fled into Canada, to escape the wrath of those who loved liberty. Washington would not allow them to be pursued there. I like to think gramps let one fly at YOUR great-great-great-great grandfather as he scampered across the border. Well, I do understand you're back from Canada now, WW. But you must understand this: liberty is in our genes, and we will not lose it. What was done once can be done again. Cry in your latte over that.

SIG The problem is and always will be that when the "money" does something against the people who support it and its country/ it should be held to account or the money flow cut off!

Your obvious attempts to present what you believe are truly emotionally based poor guy. The working people earnining 60000 or under pay an effective tax rate of under 25% or much less. Do some calculations/ your 70% figure is what you or your riche relatives must believe what they pay/even though that is impossible. What is truly regressive is what the workers pay in SS and Medi taxes as a percent of income compared to higher income categories. This is why it galls me when the Corp Wall St Elite propose raising the retirement age when we are paying huge somes into the system. If you dont think working people notice the elites attempt at theft to maintain the value of their financial wealth you are wrong! SS PAY IT TO THE MAXX!

A late reply to Roar's and WW's credit card post. Agree with you Roar, WW on the credit card situation. Heck, I get several pre-approved credit card applications and cash advance checks in the mail each week. The banks just can't give the credit away fast enough.

I caught the Tony Brown Journal on my local PBS station ( KCET - Los Angeles ) earlier today. Featured guest was Stephen Leeb, editor of Personal Finance magazine. One of the ( many ) things he talked about was the outstanding credit the major banks have issued versus their net worth. Citibank, for example, has outstanding credit 5 times their net worth. And that is for just consumer credit!! Doesn't count all the commercial and foreign credit issued.

Another item that Leeb mentioned was that the most important assets that Americans now posess are stocks ( regular variety ) and other financial paper. It used to be real estate, hard assets, etc., but not anymore. If anything should happen that causes the average Mom and Pop investor ( and their are for more Mom and Pops in this market than in 1929 ) to lose faith in this market, watch out. Crash is a word that comes to mind ( as it did to Stephen Leeb ) . Pretty scary if you ask me.

A few more items to mention, before I disappear back in to cyberspace. Leeb was predicting that the Fed will have to let a little inflation creep back into the system. For the Fed to do anything to keep it under control ( like raising rates ) , would possibly result in a recession or full blown depression. Something about losing faith in the market ( see above ) . By the way, Leeb is predicting $50 per barrel oil sometime within the next two to years.

Finishing up, Leeb was recommending energy sector stocks, gold stocks ( I think he mentioned holding physical gold also ) , small cap stocks, and ( shades of Warren Buffet ) zero coupon bonds.

Enough rambling, back to lurking.

P.S. Tortsfeasor - No jokes for the last couple of days. What happened? Guess I'll have to post one from my collection of goodies.