Gold & S&P - The gold market is looking like 1993 all over again. In 93 the XAU maintained a 20% advance from the lows while gold made new lows in Mar of 93. If the XAU can hold the 100 area +/- 2 pts. while gold tests or makes new lows for Dec the stage would be set for a 93 repeat. The funds are holding up great relative to the xau similiar to 93. Front month gold should hold 318. The S&P and Dow are in for a bum week. The weekly chart on the Dow looks like an ABC correction. If wace C down equals 1.68 of A the Dow would hit the 7010 area and the S&P would go down to at least 915 and possibily as low as 800. How soon? The S&P has bottomed on or about Oct. 27 80-90% of the time over the last 15 years. I'm short 1/2 my position at 980 looking to put on the other half.

Cmax: I find ANOTHER's post more puzzling than any previous one. Are we expected to believe that gold is actually being traded at $1000/oz rather than the current approx $324/oz for gold? If one repeats the calculation of how much gold would needs to be sold to subsidize that $10 per barrel of oil to keep oil at approx $20/barrel, but now gold is sold at $1000/oz, then this would reduce the amount of gold needed by nearly 1/3. What does not make sense is that if this is so, why not just state that one is reducing the price of oil by $3, and not $10? Are we to believe that the price of oil is say actually $27/oz, but we are only paying $20/oz? This most recent post makes no sense to me. Do you really believe this, Cmax?

ANOTHER: Why don't you give us some numbers on how many tons of gold you think the Central Banks have sold in the last 5 years or so, to subsidize the price of Oil from approx 30/oz to approx 20/oz?
I think you may have overlooked one logical point, and that those oil producers who sell oil for gold do not care what the dollar is worth. All they care about is how much their oil is worth in ounces of gold.
How about a few details? We are not asking for very much, I think.

All: Is there anyone out there? Aurator? the Nicks? anyone? Unless I am missing something, we will have to find other sources of information than ANOTHER to unravel the mystery of the LBMA. We have the essentials anyway from the annals of history: Gold is sold by the central banks of countries who are inflating their currencies to the CB's of countries who are not inflating their currencies. The question of the role of the LBMA in all of this is that complex derivatives trading of some kind could give the illusion that a particular currency such as the dollar is stronger than it really is -- for a period of time. But eventually, those countries who are supporting the dollar would eventually be forced to sell their gold reserves. So the eventual outcome is the same.
As gold investors, all of the mystery about this is really not that important to us. All we need to know is when the current charade ends. Technical analysis is sufficient for this if other useful information is not forthcoming.

For the arithmetically challenged pud pullers amongst us, look at the total tax grab:

Fed: 31% ( for many, many two-income families -- many of whom are forced to be two-income families by an outrageous tax burden )
State: 12%
Sales: 7.85%

I'll pause here to allow WW time to enter the above figures into his calculator. One regressive tax that is rarely discussed is the 20-25% built into nearly everything you buy. This is passed along to us by corporations ( SOMEONE's got to pay those "corporate taxes" ) , courtesy of big government. The total is indeed 70-75% for middle income families. And that doesn't include all the fees, licences, certificates, govt mandated insurance costs, etc., families must bear. Add those in and we may be talking 80%. Very little is left for the family. Better to spend it on PBS, I guess.

Pass the ammo, gramps!

And don't forget property taxes. We could be talking 85-90% here for a typical two-income middle class family. Now all WW's got to do is convince them he is their friend. HAR!

APH- I like your reasoning. I would guess that a historical review of gold rallies would show that gold stocks lead the way in a large percentage of the cases. Of course, in a "false rally" gold stocks could go up with gold failing to confirm, and the gold stock prices fall back down. The key question as an investor is how long one waits during that gold stock rally for gold to follow. I need to review this, but I would guess that several months would be typical, and that a head and shoulders might develop before gold stocks fall back down.
The problem with the current market is that the CB sales and possible interest rate hikes by AG act on the down side, and an unexpected rise in the PPI or other inflation indicator asts on the up side. With the situation in SE Asia being unresolved, and deflation from this part of the world spreading to the rest of the world, that inflationary signal need to come very soon. Otherwise, we may find that gold prices do not go up until much later -- when the effects of deflation benefit the profit margins of the gold producers.

Eldorado,Aurator, LGB, Another:


Eldorado, no offence but I'm tired of trying to understand which posts directed at you are really intended for me. Perhaps this moniker will help.

Aurator, thanks for the Dade County full moon violence study. I'm researching this to add fuel to the fire of this full moon controversy.

LGB, you will not get off easy on this site. You will begin to wonder why your trades are off and ours are on. You will wish you never tuned into this site as we will be a constant reminder of that constant force beyond the earth that made Gold in the first place. The force that created you and the heavens both.

Another: What is your relationship to BT? Your Modus Operendi is identical. Fictitious character with fictitious scenario that is an important metaphor for the hidden trades in the real world. I take my hat off to you, though I do not take you literally and do not believe that the secret Gold trade is practiced by oil producers in this way. I do believe that this secret trade is practiced between the CBs, if for no other reason than to eliminate trader profits. I am sure that BT is still lurking here, laughing at our ignorance of the Asian giants who are stocking up on the yellow metal.

This is my first posting to Kitco. What a great forum! One thing I haven't heard much about at this site is the closing our ports to Japanese ships. This action is about as heavy handed as you can get. I seriously doubt that this has anything to with the payment of a measly 4 million dollar fine. A more likely explanation is that the Japanese are are either considering or are in fact backing out of their agreements not to buy gold. This scheme is just goofy enough to be the brainchild of our inept politicians and economic planners. It may be much later than we think.

WW: Never touched the bong water did you. I

Just got off work and haven't read my reqired
reading here yet, so I'm posting blind. Nick @Aussie--that Tidal Wave post yesterday was fascinating. I will find some web sites on tsunamis and post them. The presence of our Aussie and Kiwi friends here has truly enriched this forum. Good to have you aboard, mates.

GEORGE COLE: ( Not the imposter ) Could you throw some more light on the pros & cons of purchasing zero coupon bonds in a deflationary environment? It is not an area I am really strong on. Thanks for your comments & help to date.

PS. I am in the mood for some bear market vindication for my views for the past 12-18 months. I thought this following comment ( previously posted on Kitco by someone else ) was excellent: I'm not losing all that money I didn't make.

HIGHRISE: I agree with your 18th Oct. comments.

Good mornin all...had a beautiful sunrise over the North Atlantic ocean this morn---golden...Weather: not a cloud in the sky+ 40 degress.

EB ( 23:07 ) Them are fight-N words buddy.....WW:house is on the market ( will be on the "net" intwo weeks---put your money where your mouth is....

Ron :

Hello from the great white north ....

Just a point of clarification Ron which you may have bypassed in your discussion with WW last night. The ONLY time any relative of yours ever took a shot at any CANADIANS ( or even fleeing ex-Yanks ) , you guys lost ! We won ! Kingston, Ontario was the spot.
Of course, I'm not defending WW, nor taking his side, as he wants to take over governments through the use of visits to Cuba on my taxes and voting NDP etc., but I just wanted to assure you that if you try to bring guns across the border, we'll take them away real quick. I mean, we beat you once, so don't ever think we're going to give you a second chance ( :- ) ) Stupid we ain't !

TTFN

Nick@Aussie--Using the tsunami analogy, what phase do you think Stocks, Gold, and Currencies are in right now? Any thoughts on a time frame?

Shultz: I heard that the entire Japanese shipping flap was created by the Japanese ship owners in an effort to break union work rules in Japan. We were used. They are having the same problem as U.S. shippers. They are downsizing, Japanese style.

Earl: Have answered all your damn questions....ding ding--you have mail ( if you ever wake up in OrEgon... ) we missed not having the crusty-old-fart around!! Go Stihl!

Mornin Donald!...CherOkee: How's the head bro??

CherOkee: Some signals seen on distant horizon--will paddle out to inspect....morning Ginseng root consumed-- now I'm ready to rock+roll on the high seas.....BBL kiddies....

Hi Ted: 48F and cloudy. Still no rain but the trees are looking very pretty this year. The tourists are all gone, they always miss the best part.

Donald: Good Morning! If you are right about the reason for the US-Japan trade flap, it may be that this time the Japanese are serious about loosening up their muscle-bound economy. Do you know if they really have $10-15 trillion ( dollar equivalents ) in private savings? I am not sure any more of they are net debtors or creditors. I hope for our sake, and that of SE Asia they have something left. I doubt the western world has the cash to make a dent.
That was a very candid post about Bin Shi. United Services is one of my favorite Mutual fund companies, because they are generally good at choosing financially conservative investments. I don't know anything about Bin Shi, but is he's like his compatriots, he is on the ball. If he is nervous about what to invest in short term ( tone of post ) there may be a problem, although it may not be with China -- just which company in China.
With the possible debt problem in mainland China -- I am not convinced there is one -- may just be the money losing 30% of the economy that is left over from the communist era.
If the SE Asia crisis blows over without world-wide financial collapse - and I think it may - then we in the US may soon find ourselves with foreign trade reaching 50% of GDP in a few years, not the current 25%. I wonder how much deflationary pressure our economy can take -- I have learned not to underestimate the strength of the US economy, and US ingenuity. Can we do what we did with the cold war and the space race -- keep coming up with new ideas, as the old ones effectively get leaked away? Perhaps, but not forever.
I think the real world-wide risk of financial collapse will be derivative-realated the unregulated OTC part. How ironic this year that the Nobel Prize in Economics went to the crafters of the Black-Scholes model. Not good timing, given what has happened in SE Asia.

JTF, CMAX, All: Does anyone have the data and chart ability to post a chart showing the price of oil per barrell in ounces of gold?

A friend ( who shall remain anonymous ) sent me this joke.....if it offends anyone----tuff sh!t!...:President Clinton looks up from his desk in the Oval Office
to see one of his aides nervously approach him. "What is it?"
exclaims the President. "Its this Abortion Bill Mr. President,
what do you want to do about it?" the aide replies. "Just go
ahead and pay it." responds the President.

*********************************************************************

Bill and Hillary are at the first baseball game of the season.
The umpire walks up to the VIP section and says something.
Suddenly Clinton grabs Hillary by the collar and throws her
over the wall onto the field. The stunned umpired shouts,
"No, Mr. President! I said, 'Throw the first PITCH!'"

*********************************************************************

Bill and Hillary are at a restaurant. The waiter tells them
tonight's specials are chicken almondine and fresh fish. "The
chicken sounds good; I'll have that," Hillary says. The waiter
nods. "And the vegetable?" he asks.
"Oh, he'll have the fish,"Hillary replies.

**********************************************************************

Q. Bill and Hillary are on a sinking boat.
Who gets saved?
A. The nation.

**********************************************************************

Q. What does Bill say to Hillary after having sex?
A: "Honey, I'll be home in 20 minutes."

**********************************************************************
Clinton returns from a vacation in Arkansas
and walks down the steps of Air Force One with
two pigs under his arms. At the bottom of the steps, he says to the
honor
guardsman, "These
are genuine Arkansas Razor-Back Hogs. I
got this one for Chelsea and this one for Hillary."
The guardsman replies, "Nice trade, Sir."
**********************************************************************

One day, Clinton angrily called the White
House interior decorator into the Oval Office.
He said, "Chelsea is very upset because
she thinks she has the ugliest room in the
entire White House; I want something done
about it immediately!" "Yes Sir, Mr. President,"
the interior decorator replies. "I'll take those
mirrors out right away!"


******************************************************************************
**************

Bill Clinton walks into the mens room at a Democratic Party conference
and
gets up next to Jesse Jackson at the urinals. Bill and Jesse are
standing
there, when Bill looks over and sees Jesse's manhood.

Bill is absolutely stunned by the sheer size and muscularity of
Jesse's
member and asks Jesse how he came by such a monster.

Jesse explains that every night before bed he slaps it against the
bedpost
for a minute or two to get the blood flowing.

Bill gets home late that night and tiptoes into the darkened bedroom.
Dying
to try out Jesse's secret he quickly undresses and starts slapping his
member
against the bedpost.

Hillary wakes up and hysterically whispers, "Jesse get out of here
before
Bill gets back!".

Donald,all: Excellent idea! Black gold indeed! I have daily prices on gold bullion from 1975. I can make an oilstock/goldstock ratio right now - ineffect, have been following this for years.

However, I think ( crude oil ) / ( gold bullion ) is what we need.

I do not have daily historical crude oil prices. Does anyone have this -- not futures or linked options, but daily spot crude oil! If someone posts this to me, I will make the indicator graph! I will be glad to post the graph to the Kitco group -- even if I have to run my graph through my HP scanjet at work!

JTF, CMAX: I just did some quick calculations using random dates and that coincide with oil crisis periods in recent history and non-crisis dates.
These are prices of oil per barrel, expressed in ounces of gold.
1929 = .005, Sept. 1973 = .029, Oct., 1973 = .051, Jan. 1974 = .090, 1980 = .059, Today = .055.

Sept. 1973 is non-crisis time, October, 1973 was the Yom Kippur War, January, 1974, was the Second Oil Shock, 1980 was the gold peak.

Oil prices I used per barrel are 1929 10c, 9/73 $3.00, 10/73 $5.11, 1/74 $11.65, 1980 $40.00



Gold prices were from the Kitc London fix tables

TO: RON - FRONT - Given a moment of thought. People like WW only succeed when they get others to argue amongst themselves as they work their insidious plots from the inside out.

Mr. Bill Clinton is able to cloak himself in the veil of supposed financially good times here in the states. When this false party stops and the markets skid to a halt and start their tragic move downwards he wil be toast.

WW will need hourly doses of Pro-Zac as he finds out about human nature. WW and a large majority of the lawyers should prepare now and purchase squeegees as you will see them all at stop lights cleaning windshields for scraps.

Donald, all: Saw your high/low post on oil/gold ratio. Isn't it interesting that oil was much cheaper relative to gold in 1973, than it is now? 1973 was a time when the US government, in its infinite wisdom, had just stopped its attempt to keep the price of gold low. That would have made the price of oil in ounces of gold lower, not higher. I think I will be able to think about this intelligently after we have a graph. The offer stands if anyone can give me daily oil prices.

JTF: Does this help?



CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS INDEX ( SPOT PRICES ) - Economic Databank.
-- http://www.firstunion.com/reports/databank/economic/chart7.html

APH: Thanks for your most informative comparison of bullion and gold stock action today and in early 1993! I wasn't aware that bullion made a new low back then after the XAU had risen 20%. With bullion still under heavy pressure but gold stocks holding up well, it does look like a repeat performance is underway.

Steve: Long-term zero coupon bond offer the most leverage when playing the bond market. They soar when rates decline, but take on the chin when rates rise. The key disadvantage is that you receive no interest income until maturity, but may still have to pay taxes on the interest accruals.

JTF - this is what you are lookinf for, - http://www.gasearch.com

JTF: sorry about the first link, I screwed, didn't mean to waste your time.

Sorry: Around 1973 gold was artifically low ( in dollars ) due to the US selling gold, until 1972 or so. Should have said that US gold sales near 1973 would have kept oil prices artificially high in terms of gold. What is interesting was that in 1973 oil prices were cheap in ounces of gold relative to what they are now.
My impression has been that the true price of gold is about $600/oz, and with $22/ballel oil, this comes out to a oil/gold ratio of 0.037, closer to the 1973 ratio than to now.
I think we just concluded that in terms of oil, gold is undervalued today. The true price of gold relative to oil appears to be artificially low at the current time. Anyone -- please check my math! I'm much better at calculus or differential analysis than multiplying or dividing, strange as that may sound!
What a perfect time for oil producers to buy gold in exchange for oil!

JTF: also look at this. http://www.oilonline.com

JTF: This site has charts but no data. Scroll down to energy.

JTF: I must be getting old or something. Here it is.
http://www.compassfinancial.com/charts.html

tolerant1: Thanks for the spot CRB price graph.
Donald,all: I do have access to monthly oil prices though BLS, but daily oil prices would be soooo-- much better! I am goin to go off line and try Telescan for daily oil prices. Sometimes they have prices like this, but only for at most ten years through their web site. Can't afford their better one!

Oil Price History - http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

Oil Prices behave much as any other commodity with wide price swings in times of shortage or oversupply. The domestic industry's price has been heavily regulated through production or price controls throughout much of the twentieth century. In the post World War II era oil prices have averaged $19.44 per barrel in 1996 dollars. Through the same period the median price for crude oil was $15.35 in 1996 prices. That means that only fifty percent of the time from 1947 to 1996 have oil prices exceeded $15.35 per barrel. Prices have only exceeded $22.00 per barrel in times of war or conflict in the Middle East. The lessons of history advise caution in projecting sustained prices above the current level when making long term commitments.

I dumped all margin late Wed and early Thursday Am, currently 50% gold/silver stocks and 10% some techs that look promising. Proud new owner of 40% cash. Interested to hear opinions on which way things are headed next week with gold/silver bullion/stocks and paper equitites. Obviously I am hoping for some good buy points to be reached. Have to go shopping with the Real Boss soon ( sigh ) , be back this evening.

There is only one oil state that counts! Only
one! They have made it very clear how
important gold is to them. If they had started
buying outright, gold would have gone to
$5,000+ in days. And only a very few
million ozs. would have been purchased!
The message has been for some years,
we will accumulate thru the back door,
using paper deals if you keep the price
at or below the cost of production.
Do this and oil will remain THE driving
force of the world economy!
FAIL THIS AND WE WILL PRICE
GOLD IN DOLLARS AT THE TRUE
VALUE OF OIL TO THE WORLD!

You see, gold is not a commodity. The
CBs have used every weapon to keep
its price low . Understand me, Gold is
now, today, a devalued currency being
used in world trade!
Do you think the CBs are selling gold
to keep the dollar strong? They dont
have to sell to accomplish that feat!
CB gold ( one billion ozs.? ) valued at
its current commodity price is only
worth 300 billion, its nothing in that
price range! They know what its
US$ price is worth in terms of oil!
They are not stupid as they show.

You should not think they are dumb!
Invest in gold mines, will you? Notice
how quick the Australian CB hinted
at taking gold in the ground if needed.
This was said after their sale!
The nature of the coming crisis will make
the taking of investor property a piece
of cake. You see, because gold is a
commodity, you will be compensated at
the commodity price of return + a fair
profit, of course.

How much further can they take this?
The world private stockpiles that could
be sold have been. The CBs are heavy
into their own stuff now and are over
their heads if they had to make good
on all the private deals ( read my other
posts ) . The economic game is ending
now and has been from the start of
1997! Watch closely as the world
currencies and markets fall one by one.
Watch in absolute wonder as the
demand for oil plunges and its price
goes thru the roof. Yes, oil stocks will
crash with the markets. And gold?
You will never know its price. It will
stop all trading as it slices thru $10,000+.

Who am I? As I will not be around for
long so I am noone. But , follow with me
as all of this takes place in your time!

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

Schippi is still 100% Long

Donald: Will upload graph of crude from compass financial- was a little tricky getting the gif file from prophet. Had to use Netscape "view" to get the name of the embedded gif file. Still need raw daily data, though.

Trillions, Trillions and pretty soon you're talking big money!

10/16/1997 $5,416,174,203,759.08

Current
Month Amount

10/15/1997 $5,414,923,137,712.76
10/14/1997 $5,412,698,794,445.84
10/10/1997 $5,410,700,313,154.02
10/09/1997 $5,409,087,032,816.86
10/08/1997 $5,412,240,204,620.07
10/07/1997 $5,415,085,048,979.17
10/06/1997 $5,413,432,617,300.15
10/03/1997 $5,411,881,420,892.37
10/02/1997 $5,387,382,191,644.62
10/01/1997 $5,420,505,789,573.34

Prior
Months
09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34
08/29/1997 $5,404,420,294,885.51
07/31/1997 $5,373,228,560,474.27
06/30/1997 $5,376,151,252,876.02
05/30/1997 $5,344,961,362,266.83
04/30/1997 $5,353,971,314,439.39
03/31/1997 $5,380,889,857,391.59
02/28/1997 $5,349,937,360,942.68
01/31/1997 $5,313,997,018,848.05
12/31/1996 $5,323,171,750,783.19
11/29/1996 $5,296,548,923,143.63
10/31/1996 $5,247,319,617,599.91

Prior
Years

09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34
09/30/1996 $5,224,810,939,135.73
09/29/1995 $4,973,982,900,709.39
09/30/1994 $4,692,749,910,013.32
09/30/1993 $4,411,488,883,139.38
09/30/1992 $4,064,620,655,521.66
09/30/1991 $3,665,303,351,697.03
09/28/1990 $3,233,313,451,777.25
09/29/1989 $2,857,430,960,187.32
09/30/1988 $2,602,337,712,041.16
09/30/1987 $2,350,276,890,953.00

Source: Bureau of the Public Debt

The Onion PARADOX peels yet another layer away from the eventual truth of the LONDON BULLION MARKETING ASSOCIATION...:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron1020.html

AJT: Gee -- I thought we were going to have a budget surplus this year! Seriously, if you include unfunded liabilities such as Social Security, which our goverment has been using to balance the budget, the actual federal debt is closere to 15 trillion. Private and commercial debt in the US is comparable. FRED in St. Louis has a nice summary!
ANOTHER: You are raising concerns which are appreciated. What about specific suggestions? Gold coins can be confiscated too -- not just gold mines.
All: I will now try Telescan!

TO ALL: I have given a great deal of thought to confiscation. The US would have major and I mean MAJOR problems if they tried to confiscate gold again.

The CB, Reserve ( I refuse to call it the Federal Reserve because there is nothing Federal about it. ) and Govt. are not the only powers in the world. In addition the RothRocks of the world fall into the not the only powers that be category.

This is not the 30s, Clinton is not FDR and I truly believe that the US Govt is going to be much different 24 months from now. American soldiers will not fire on Americans.

What we are ripe for is a revolution if you ask me. All of this politically correct thinking that has been heaped on people only serves to cloak the boiling emotions underneath.

America will be tested as never before in her short history. I hope cooler heads will prevail but I think that when this Pandoras' Box is opened the obverse will happen.

If you feel strongly that confiscation is a possibility and think me mad, hoard the white metals, they have never been touched as far as I can find.

tolerant1: Re- you previous post. Thanks for interesting graph on crude oil prices from West Texas Resaerch Group.
To all: I was unsuccessful with TIPnet ( Telescan ) . Telescan has virtually everything you could want to download for the last ten years, but if you do not know the exact name of what you want, forget it! I tried the obvious search choices. Is there a DJ spot oil, or CRB spot oil? If someone gives me a clue I will try again.
The offer still stands if someone can download daily crude oil prices say, since 1975 or so.
ANOTHER: Your posts are appreciated - the earlier ones especially because they have made us think. Facts of any kind ( so that we can learn about what is going on ) will be much more useful than worries about gold mine confiscation.
Family chores pending, so offline till this evening.

The Never-Ending Story

A bizarre new twist to the tale of Marcos's gold

By Peter Morgan and Antonio Lopez / Manila


EVERYONE LOVES A TREASURE hunt and a good yarn. Speculating on where the late
Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos stashed millions in gold and cash provides both. The
deposed dictator's narrative on how he secured his booty seems straight out of an adventure comic.
During his lifetime, Marcos dismissed suggestions that his riches came from plundering the nation's
coffers. He claimed he stumbled on a pot of gold in the jungle. The fortune, he maintained, was
actually part of the mythical Yama-shita treasure buried by a Japanese general during his hasty
retreat from the Philippines at the end of World War II.

Unlikely story, and perhaps irrelevant now. More important is tracking down what happened to the
money after Marcos's flight from the Philippines in 1986. Some believe the fortune is deposited in
Swiss banks. His widow, Imelda, says it is buried in the Philippines. The government has found only
$356 million in accounts in two banks, Credit Suisse and Swiss Bank Corp., but so far none has
been recovered. The rest, as much as $20 billion by one estimate, remains elusive.

Now comes the latest bizarre twist to the tale. Reiner Jacobi, an Australian fortune hunter once
hired by the Philippine government to find the Marcos millions, says he has traced another $466
million. Jacobi produced a letter from a Dr. Peter Ritter-Jurus, a Swiss banker purported to be
handling the money. The letter documents the sale of 1.1 million ounces of bullion and the laundering
of the $466 million in proceeds through Swiss ac-counts in the name of the Philippine National Oil
Co. and of a company called Marcan Inc. ( Philippine National Oil denies any involvement. ) The
letter also implicates the Presidential Commission on Good Government ( PCGG ) -- sleuths chasing
down the wealth -- and even President Fidel Ramos.

The allegations were brought to light by Robert Swift, an American lawyer fighting to collect from
the Marcos estate $2 billion awarded four years ago by a Hawaii court to 9,539 human rights
victims of his regime. In a bid to force the family to pay, Swift filed a case with a California court to
prevent banks from transferring or dissipating Marcos's riches. Based on documents from Jacobi
and Swift, the court granted a temporary restraining order in September freezing accounts allegedly
tied to the Marcos clan in Standard Chartered Bank, Union Bank of Switzerland and Bank Julius
Baer.

Jacobi's affidavit is being attacked from many sides. The day of the injunction, Dr. Peter Ritter, a
lawyer and senior partner in Prasidial Anstalt, a Liechtenstein-based trust company that specializes
in inheritance planning, denied writing the letter. "I have never used the name Ritter-Jurus. This
document is not authentic and the signature -- presumably purporting to be mine -- is a forgery."

Ramos also called the letter a forgery and denied having an account with Bank Julius Baer, as the
letter charges. The president, who is a second cousin to Marcos, says the letter is part of a
"conspiracy of falsehood and fabrication" to weaken his influence in next May's presidential election.
"It does not surprise me that the so-called Marcos ill-gotten wealth has again landed on the front
pages and that I am being accused of having a secret bank account in Switzerland." His legal
counsel has threatened to sue Swift for libel.

Swift insists he is not out to get Ramos, only compensation for the victims. "We have no political
agenda and seek none." However, he accuses Manila of pressuring Ritter to change his story, and
adds the PCGG, headed by Magtanggol Gunigundo, to the list of those in cahoots with the
Marcoses. Gunigundo shot back: "Swift is the victim of a hoax. The government cannot be
bamboozled by this character [Jacobi]." He claims Jacobi tried to blackmail the Philippine
government into paying $50 million to keep the lid on the Ritter letter.

Filipino human rights lawyer and associate to Swift, Rene Saguisag, has a different version, asserting
that Jacobi has worked for the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. "He is not the type who would just
pull a name from out of the blue and attribute certain statements to him that can easily be debunked
the following day."

Clearly, facts are as elusive to come by as the money. When employed by the PCGG between
1988 and 1991, Jacobi says he uncovered information that Marcos had stashed 1,241 tons of gold
at Zurich's Kloten airport. Swiss officials and the PCGG denied this was so. For this latest
accusation, Jacobi thought he had proof. The alleged Ritter letter outlines the trustee's duties as
controller of the Sandy Foundation, one of 11 such in Switzerland suspected of concealing Marcos
money.

Of the bullion sale and its proceeds, the alleged Ritter letter states: "I find it disconcerting that the
beneficiary is not my client [the Marcoses]." Who knows if they were or not. To determine anything
close to the truth, Jacobi, Swift and other gold seekers will have to dig harder if they ever hope to
stumble on the fabled Marcos treasure.

Interesting item from the VanEck Letter: "India has nearly 10,000 tons of gold, mostly in private hands. That equals almost 10% of all the gold that has ever been mined in mankinds' long history with the metal."

Morning all, Glad to see all the oil discussion. Was there a post by another last night? If so was it the same as this morning? I saw a past last night and couldn't open it. I ask if someone would re-post it and gave up after a while. Would someone help me out?

I have to say I am mesmerized and fully intrigued by the offerings of ANOTHER. The food for thought in these posts is of the most thought-provoking and intellectually nutritive kind. A wonderfully revelatory perspective, and an apocalyptic vision of what the future may bring. Thanks as well to the efforts of JTF, CMAX, and others who recognize the meat in these posts and are doing the work of dissecting and analyzing the logic and implications therein. Their clear thinking is a boon to my dense and overloaded brain. The tribute, in the end, is to Kitco for the forum it truly is - a free search for the truth where sterling minds and venturesome spirits can share. How pale, malnourished, deluded, and deluding the "mainstream" news is in comparison to this marvelous venue. Bart - thanks for all your time, expense, and wisdom in providing this for those who appreciate it, and make it something very special.

ted------

consumed 2 gallons of h2o last night and
avoided the "swollen head syndrome." do
have some info to disseminate and will post
it shortly------inbound bird!

Another - RE: The Australian Govt may allude to the gold in the ground but that is owned by stock holders. I think if they completely disregard the law they will have major problems as I feel they would in the US if such were attempted.

I do not know much about the Australian people, but what little I do know tells me that there are many there who would show their discontent with the Govt in a rather deliberate fashion.

TO: ALL - What some of the super wealthy may contribute to the gold trade. Excerpt from Gold Newsletter. Any thoughts.

My good friend Lord William Rees-Mogg recently pointed out that there are at least 500 billionaires in the world and at least 5,000 centi-millionaires. He estimated that the billionaires control an average of at least $2,000 million each, and the centi-millionaires at least $200 million each. Their combined wealth is likely, therefore, to be about $2 trillion.

Actually, I've seen estimates of a much higher number of billionaires - from 1,000 to 1,500 - in several different publications. It's hard to know how much ultra-wealth there is out there, since the wealthy are very private. Indeed, one study showed that there may be as many as 500 billionaires in Indonesia alone. Who knows? At any rate, Lord Rees-Mogg goes on to estimate that the ultra-rich will control $4 trillion by the year 2002, and $8 trillion by the year 2007. Since these figures are doubling about every five years, that would mean that by the year 2022, just 25 years from now, the ultra-rich would control at least $64 trillion.

What do the ultra-rich buy, besides the obvious such as real estate and equities? Traditionally they have bought gold. And even though gold likely makes up only a very small percentage of the typical ultra-rich investor's portfolio, it makes a big difference. What one needs to consider is that the compounding nature of the super-rich's wealth, corn- pared to the relatively small amount of gold available, almost assures a bull market in gold. if the ultra-rich control $4 trillion by the year 2002 ( and this is entirely conservative ) , just a two percent shift in this wealth to gold would equate to a purchasing power of $80 billion. Compare that to the entire U.S. gold hoard - built up over 200 years - which is worth about $93 billion.

Another: agree with your thought on U.S. due to being tested. We've earned it.

On the subject of prophecy, here are a couple of links to George Washington's vision at Valley Forge. The second one has some commentary thrown in.

http://pss.fit.edu/~stevens/gwvision.html

http://www.netaxs.com/~delcolib/washingtonsvisionandprophecyforamerica.htm

Another: If I read you right you are saying the primary purpose of CB efforts to keep gold down is to prevent oil from soaring. But the CBs have sold or hocked so much of their supply that they will be unable to keep the yellow down much longer. And when gold surges, oil will follow.

Questions?

I always thought the primary force keeping oil down is the dominant presence of the US. in the Middle East. As long as the US can maintain in power client regimes such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait that follow Washingtons bidding, the price of oil can be kept down until demand becomes too great for even these nations to satisfy. The price of gold is not the primary variable in this equation. The chain of price causation rums more from oil to gold than from gold to oil. Higher oil prices = higher inflstion = higher gold prices

On the confiscation issue, private holdings of physical gold are far more likely to be confiscated in a crisis than are gold mines. That is what happened in the US. when President Roosevelt outlawed private gold ownership in the early 1930s. But private gold mines were not nationalized and their stock prices soared many fold when the official gold price was hiked from $20.67 to %35 an ounce.

I would suggest to you that if private gold mines in developed states such as the US., Canada, and Australia are ever nationalized, it will be at prices far, far above current very depressed levels.

Last post: Another=Tolerant1. Another is on everyone's mind today.

James Blanchard's October newsletter followed quickly on the heals of September's and features another article written by Frank Veneroso. In it he details his theory that the amount of bank gold loans tops 8000 tonnes. 6500 tonnes were accumulated by the end of 1995, much of that in a switch from long to short positions during 1994 and 1994 after the last bull market in gold. An additional 1500 tonnes were borrowed in 1996 and the first 3 quarters of 1997. This implies that the demand rates are underestimated and deficit is underestimated. Most of the additional gold provided to the market, more than 5000 tonnes more than official estimates, has been provided over the past 5 years. If current levels persist todays 8000 tonne deficit will increase by more than 1000 tonnes per year. In what he calls an "end game" there will be a point reached when the loans will have to cease and the short positions cover. At that point the short position is too large to cover and a crisis will ensue.
Finally, recent price weakness has been due he believes to Central Bank sales by the Dutch. He believes that there may be more rough sledding to go but the the recent rise in gold lease rates indicates that the strain on the gold loan market must be mounting. Eventually gold will rise more than anyone thinks.

Donald - JTF
Here's a txt file containing
Dow, Gold, Oil. going back to '83
Additional columns show $movements, %movements.
Dow/Gold, Dow/Oil, Gold/Oil, Oil/Gold.

TO ALL: Another excerpt from Mr. Blanchard at Gold Newletter.

CyberGold: money in the 21st century

Every investor should understand the history of money and, most importantly, its future.

For example, the 19th century was dominated by the gold standard. As a result, unprecedented economic growth and other benefits of unfettered capitalism were enjoyed by all. ( Von Mises, in "Austrian Economists," explained clearly why the gold standard was a major cause of prosperity and growth in the 19th century and on into the early 20th century. )

In the 20th century the various social welfare/collectivist systems proved incompatible with the gold standard, to the extent that even free- market advocates such as Milton Friedman began to support a fiat money system.

The monetary system of the 21st century may well have been predicted by Nobel Laureate economist F.A. Hayek, who originated the concept of open competition in monetary systems in a speech at our NCMR conference in Lausanne, Switzerland. At that conference he said, "What is so dangerous and ought to be eliminated is not the government's right to issue money, but its exclusive right to do so and its power to force people to accept that money at a particular rate."

As an aside, I remember that a wealthy conference attendee invited my friend Harry Schultz and several of us to a dinner in a restaurant on a mountain top near Lausanne. It was a magical dinner, spent in deep discussion of free-market economics, the outlook for freedom throughout the world, etc.

Near the conclusion of the dinner, Hayek stood up, toasted the group and surprised us all by saying, "It was in this very room in post-World War II Europe that several of us founded the Mont Pelerin Society." Of course I knew about this internationally renowned pro-freedom group, but I honestly had no idea that we were actually on top of Mont Pelerin at that very moment! At any rate, Hayek was absolutely correct -- the 21st century is likely to be dominatedby competing currencies, both private and government.

New technology and the need for a stable currency will see the 21st century dominated by an electronic gold currency.

addendum: the previous post should read "short positions from 1994 to 1995 not 1994 to 1994. Also, fishing was great. Among other things I brought home 12 dozen blue crabs and 10 pounds of shrimp. Fresh seafood, yum!

Hi all

Last Months insider trades tabulated

http://www.cda.com/investnet/daily/wsj.html

Totals

Insider sales of their own stock = $115.9 million
Insider purchases of their own stock = $ 1.5 million

"..and out of the house the rats came tumbling"

TO: ALL - All is not gloom and doom. An excerpt from Strategic investment.

Disintermediation

( Hamilton, Bermuda ) Trembling, maybe. Planning, certainly. The great challenge that you face as an investor is figuring out how to survive the coming collapse of the nation state. The first step is simply a matter of recognizing what few now understand - that you or your children will probably outlive the United States and Canada. That, in itself, involves a major shift of perception for most people. We were taught in the 20th century to assume that the state was immortal. Yet we can now see that information technology contains the seeds of destruction for all national politics.

The computer makes individuals more powerful than ever before - potentially even autonomous. It creates cyberspace, a realm that is open to commerce, yet liberated from the tyranny of location. No government can claim monopoly over cyberspace and the cyber-economy, just as no government could ever monopolize the oceans.

This has tremendous implications, as Lord Rees-Mogg and I spell out in our forthcoming book, The Sovereign Individual. We agree with Robert Kaplan that the massified state is an artifact of industrialism that is likely to be deconstructed by the Information Revolution. This process will make it increasingly difficult for free riders and those whose net contributions to economic well-being are negative. On the other hand, the burdens of systematic compulsion will be lifted from the productive. Without the nation-state confiscating a substantial part of the wealth you produce, the day that Lord Keynes envisioned may actually come to pass, when the advance of science and the magic of compound interest will enable you to live wisely, agreeably and well.

Just back.....What a super-fantastic day---calmest day in six weeks or so as starting the end of August almost every day is windy ( average daily wind speed=20-25 miles/hour ) ...cause of El Nino no remnants of atlantic hurricanes---worst remnant was time we peaked at 85 MPH winds and woke up to 12 foot satellite dish blowin apart ( piece by friggin piece ) ...and we aren't even in the windy part of Cape Breton---that's near Cheticamp ( N.W. Cape Breton---so windy there trees don't grow!...Cherokee:look for Port Morien CB ( we are near ) ...on the outskirts of Mira Bay and today paddled down the bay ( 4 miles ) into the ever-present wind ( makes return trip easier ( DUH ) to the mouth of the bay where the Mira river is located and briefly went down river crossing under our local bridge which pivots on a fulcrum run by hand crank ( high tech ...eh! ) ...spectacular fall colors--near mystical day with only the loons to be seen....Cherokee: will be back @ ya and wish I was goin on yer trip....Questions will be answered...but first back to the here+ now ( carrying cordwood into the basement ) ---ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....

George S. Cole: Thanks for your prompt response re: Zero Coupon Bonds. I thought that would be the case, but it pays to check with the experts. This leads to the next question. Why would Warren Buffett stick $2 Billion ( plus? ) on Zero Coupon Bonds? This is a big bet on his part that interest rates will stay the same or go down. A fairly strong indicator from somebody in the "know" that deflation is not going away, or he may get burned big time. I noticed that Advanced ( Bank ) fund management in Australia has taken the opposite line on Bonds. But I think I would rather listen to Warren.

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Thanks for coming through on daily oil -- I see you already included the oil/gold, gold/oil ratios! After my chores, I will convert your downloaded file to my system.
All: I do not have a scanner at home, so cannot promise graphical upload till I get to work. Those of you who can't wait have the data from Nick ( @Aussie ) .

George Cole: Appreciate your 11:24 post- you are more tolerant than I. My patience is wearing thin, given the lack of factual information we are getting from our interesting mysterious source, now less informative than his/her earlier posts. I do find the increased frequency of the posts intriguing.

Tolerant1: enjoyed your 11:40 post. I think we are all clear that the shift from "paper" back to "hard" assets is beginning - the Kondratiev wave cycle. The shift will probably near completion around 2003-2007. Our A Greenspan is undoubtedly aware or this, and is interested in going back to the gold standard in some manner. I hope he is able to pull this off.
What I find amusing is that we never really could leave the gold standard, we just let the dollar float. Thousands of years of human history and the use of gold as currency cannot be ignored, now matter how hard all our governments try. Regardless of the financial system used, the countries that do not inflate their currencies will be able to keep gold, and those that do inflate their currencies will have to sell their gold, sooner or later. The only way the powers that be could really destroy the value of gold would be to create an unlimited supply of it.

Another tid bit concerning gold from Gold Newsletter:

If anyone is going to break the central banks' grasp of the gold markets, George Soros and his "gold hedge" Chinese friends are certainly the ones who could send the gold prices soaring.

Signs of Soros moving capital into China are already apparent. In October 1995, Soros bought a 25 percent stake in Hainan Airlines for $25 million. Particularly interesting is the fact that this is the first time foreign investors have been allowed to own a part of a Chinese airline. Previous investments have been restricted to airport construction and aircraft maintenance. Hainan is considered the world's fastest growing airline.

CHINESE AND GOLD

According to Yasuro Morita, Soros' interest in China may be far greater and it may involve gold. In "Behind the Scenes Manipulators of the Gold Market," published by Shima Media Network ( Tokyo, Japan ) , Morita says that Soros has developed quite a relationship with the Chinese when it comes to gold.

According to the article:

"Overseas Chinese were unable to just watch from the sidelines when the news hit about Soros buying Newmont Mining Company. To the Chinese, gold is the common currency fir overseas Chinese...their history of manipulating the market for gold ( which is easily converted into money and provides good investment opportunities ) has given them not only a considerable fortune but a good deal of confindence in their ability. They were not about to let this latest opportunity pass them by, and they joined with Soros in his manipulation of the market...Gold suddenly jumped to $400 per troy ounce. Soros and the overseas Chinese saw this as the ceiling and ended up earning hundreds-of-millions of dollars through the sale of gold."

Morita also alleges:

"...The main figures from groups of overseas Chinese across the world hold secret 'gold hedge' meetings. It serves as a forum for the exchange of information on the gold market, as well as on international politics and economics. This meeting, which determines money-making methods for overseas Chinese, has at times decided to move the price of gold. At other times it has decided to work on the market. To date, there have been two known meetings. The first was held in November 1987 to deal with the confusion in international stock markets caused by the so-called Black Monday crash, which resulted in instability fir the Hong Kong dollar. The second known meeting was held in May of1994, when the Bank of China issued Hong Kong dollars in Hong Kong for the first time. However no one knows that this group has joined with George Soros to manipulate the gold market."

According to Morita's report, some profits from this "manipulation of the gold market" are being used to fund expansion of China's electrical power infrastructure: "China, which suffers from a severe energy shortage, will be the main recipient Since this energy shortage may prove a big obstacle to China's double-digit economic growth, it has provided an opportunity for Soros and overseas Chinese to join hands to promote their ambitions in the China market...when speculating about what will happen to gold prices, the yen exchange rate, and the development of the Chinese economy, one cannot ignore Soros and the 'gold hedge meeting' of overseas Chinese."

whether Soros is eyeing another major move in the gold market any time soon ( with or without the "overseas Chinese," Morita refers to ) , no one knows. However, it is generally under stood that Soros is a long-term bull on the gold market, and one reason may be the outlook for higher growth and inflation in China.

G S Cole and all- Xau bottomed on 11-27-92 at 64.38, on 3/10/93 gold made a new low by a dollar at 325.80 ( April ) , the XAU closed that day at 76 18% above it's lows. Fri. the XAU closed at 101.38, 18% above it's 7/7/97 low of 85.80. Gold is only a couple dollars away from a new low. The pattern is the same let's hope the results are.

Another, from the information that I am aware of Saudia Arabia has one heavy hand invested in US equities. In fact most of their assets are in stocks. Please advise as to what I might be missing here.

nick@1136------

damn! what an awesome compendium of historical data!!

"if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood on the shoulders of giants." isaac newton@ the-beanstalk

look at the rallies ( expansions ) and the subsequential sell-offs ( contractions ) . indicative of the patterns of life,
up-and-down, the pendulum WILL make his rounds....
an un-natural pattern has depressed the real value of gold
to a rate-of-exchange that belies the true historical value
that it has ALWAYS maintained, until now. un-natural patterns
are reversed ( always ) with extremes naturally not seen. take
floods, droughts usually follow. extreme heat, precipitates
extreme cold. you know--physics---"for every action--equal and
opposite reaction" sir in

the reversal in gold AND silver will be so violent and rapid
that rags-to-riches--------and riches-to-rags--- will occur
in an instant for those players on both sides of the aisle.
looking at history and where gold resides at $per/oz, where
should your money be? it does not matter in which form, or
which vehicle is used.

time is very short---------come back to now and awaken grasshopper,
winter is at hand----------

tolerant1: You've done it again! George Soros will eventually move on gold purchases -- if he has not already done so. Also any news on his investment activities in Mainland China will give us a clue on whether China is really in trouble like the rest of SE Asia. I'm inclined to believe at the moment that China does have problems with SOE's bad loans but not "terminal" ones.

Herr Tolerant 1--What you are quoting from Strategic Investment sounds logical and may, in fact, take place. But if it does, then THE US CONSTITUTION MUST BE PERMANENTLY SCRAPPED to accomplish it!! IS THIS WHAT WE FOUGHT TWO WORLD WARS FOR, KOREA, VIETNAM AND DESERT STORM! Not to mention the REVOLUTIONARY WAR! What about "GIVE ME LIBERTY OR GIVE ME DEATH!" This is simply more of the same NEW AGE FASCIST GLOBALIST PROPAGANDA which I and every true AMERICAN PATRIOT must oppose to the death like all true patriots before us! All other roads but lead us back to TYRANNY, ANARCHY or GENOCIDE! Time to read and study "None Dare Call it Conspiracy" and "The Road to Serfdom" again. AFTER you watch the video of Orwell's "1984"! God preserve us from such UTOPIAN GLOBALIST DELUSIONS and all who would attempt to bring them to pass!

TO: I am not ANOTHER, just a regular reader of many sites. ANOTHER is a very bright individual, or group of individuals. I am neither the individual or one of the participants in creating ANOTHER's thought.

I do think the oil/gold thoughts are very interesting.

My reason for posting this is very simply...and trust me on this...ANOTHER is far better read, and brighter then I am.

THE LATEST NEWS VIA AUSTRALIAN - MONDAY 12.45 AM

Thais risk fresh crisis by defying IMF on oil tax
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971020/pageone/pageone5.html

Beijing would pledge to end sales of anti-ship cruise missiles to Iran
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971020/world/world3.html

Lost Jobs - the Downsizing of Australia
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971020/pageone/pageone1.html

Light Relief: The Australian International Motor Show ( Sydney )
http://www.smh.com.au/drive/content/aims97/

More Dumb Fund Managers - 1987-style crash 'an opportunity to buy'
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971020/invest/invest3.html

Is the IMF the real circus act in Thailand?
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971020/world/world1.html

Australia: Rate cut rears again on zero inflation expectations
( Desperately awaiting the coming inflation?? )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971020/news/news3.html

Now Cheryl Kernot has joined the ALP, Aust. PM John Howard
beefs up his manufacturing & business support. But why did
he wait so long????
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971020/news/news1.html

Malaysia faces markets crunch on Monday over its Budget
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971020/world/world2.html

Wall Street remains nervous
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971020/market/markets3.html

Watching Warrants
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971020/market/markets4.html

Stan Deyos Bookmarks - Some VERY interesting sites
http://www.iinet.net.au/~standeyo/Deyo_Bookmarks.html

IDT: your 11:34 post. Just read it! I think Jim Blanchard probably has accurate information, given his background. I think these numbers are the ones we need to estimate roughly when all the gold loan business will end and gold will rise. When key Central Banks are left with the choice of actually selling large quantities of gold ( which they will have to announce ) , gold prices will really begin to rise. I still maintain that the recent concurrent drop in gold, and the rise in the dollar is not coincidental. A gold rally in Swiss Franks began in 1995, and I don't think it can be explained away by the weak Swiss economy.

TO: GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD, your quote below from previous post.

"IS THIS WHAT WE FOUGHT TWO WORLD WARS FOR, KOREA, VIETNAM AND DESERT STORM! Not to mention the REVOLUTIONARY WAR! What about "GIVE ME LIBERTY OR GIVE ME DEATH!"

I ask you, take a good look at the USA today, right now. And ask yourself the same question.

Chart of Nick's data. Very interesting! Show long term tendency for Gold/oil ratio to vary around a fixed ratio of about 20.

IDT: Thanks for the update on Blanchard!

Steve: Buffett probably is buying zeros as a hedge against a market meltdown. Most of his assets are still in equities.

This site sure is much more pleasant without Hepcat. Not because he is a gold bear ( that has been the correct position for a long time ) but because he is such an obnoxious SOB. I do hope that RJ -- our other prominent bear -- will soon return.

George - I thought you were above these kind
of attacks. Remember, silence is golden.

Rest assured, RJ will be back.
Everyone on this site runs out whining
and then reappears, usually within
the week. This is known as adult
behavior.

Auric ...
I think the trend has already turned going by breakout's that have just occured.
It is very early days in the change-over period.
This coming week will give us confirmation.
It was only a few days ago that the Bulls thought that it was still up.
Now they are questioning their analysis.
A solid move down will be strong confirmation, but if we get a down, then up swing, I would presume that this will be a bull trap and we will have to wait till it makes it's next high top failure. this next break-up will probably be short of duration as volatility is extreme right now.
Unless we get a panic down, I would think that this downtrend will be made up of short term down drafts with tecnical rally's that keep on failing.
The dippies and eternal Bulls will have to be taught again and again that the trend has turned.
They are still in firm belief that the trend is their friend and that at the right moment, when it is so oversold and sitting on strong support, that they can buy the bottom for the next parabolic rise.
The degree of bullishness that existed on AVID last week was amazing!
When it started to fall they got caught, so much by surprise ( not all ) and many stood back in amazement, unbelieving. After reflection some of them ( not all ) are convinced that it's going to roar back up again. They are starting to sound as bullish as last week again ( not all ) .
This sort of behaviour will be prevalent throughout the market in the next short term. IMHO

I see the window of oportunity for gold to act the opposite during this period with some time lag associated.

Here is the chart of INTC - note the exhaustion and then breakaway gaps, technically perfect topping formation.
Plus Dow 30 Industrials on monthly bars - 2/3 are showing long term topping failures.
Many big names have made breakaway gaps.

The chart US_Swing.htm that I posted is very good for showing accumalation/distribution and confirmed the break downwards before it started by a couple of days.
It is a very interesting oscillator and shows strength in the moves that it accompanies.
It made a very strong initial downtrust off a dow high, which is very unusual.
Always preceeding a high on the dow there is a period of distribution and this oscillator then starts its new downtrend.
Notice the three waves down before the dow high in March. The dow high was put in on the last of these waves - see where the NYSE blue line tops out at about 3.
Next look at the top in the dow high in August. The dow high was put in on the last of these waves - see where the NYSE blue line tops out at about 10. Notice the distribution occuring prior to the top.
At the present moment we have just failed on a dow top and the first impulse wave has broken so fast, so deep, down into negative teritory.
The breadth of this last wave shows that there was little distribution prior to the dow top but massive distribution following the dow top and failure. If this is a sign of the strength of the first impulse wave down then I would presume that the next impulses to come will be truly impressive.
I unfortunately do not any data preceeding march 95 for this chart.
The data that I use is A/D nos.: number of shares up, number down and number same.
If anyone has this backdata for these indices AMEX, Nasdaq, NYSE, I would appreciate a copy, especially the period around '87.

I have been thinking that if we could come up with the data, that I could create a chart like this for gold. Which would give us an invaluable tool to forsee trend breakouts.
This indicator works very well with more than one set of imputs i.e. three indices.
I currently have the necessary data for the Aussie mining index.
If I were to get the A/D data for say the XAU and the SA gold index, I would then have a GLOBAL GOLD accumalation/distribution chart.
What an edge?
I have a gut feeling that this chart would be showing the opposite of the dow chart.

I have been very busy learning about htm files and FTP programs, so haven't been able to respond to the many comments posted lately.

Thanks so much for the warm words regarding Dad's poetry - tickles his heart it does.

HERR TOLERANT 1--Whatever America's flaws today ( and believe me there are MANY!!! ) it's far LESS FLAWED than anything the GODLESS NEW AGE GLOBALIST FASCISTS HAVE TO OFFER! If you doubt it then you better go back and study THE FEDERALIST PAPERS' warnings agaiinst TYRANNY and OPPRESSION under the guise of EQUALITY and FRATERNITY! Today we could add to the list the globalist's shibboleths of ENVIRONMENTALISM and WORLD PEACE! Remember! He who STANDS FOR NOTHING will eventually fall for ANYTHING!

Jeeze Cheese--lighten up, Dude. Your going to give yourself a heart attack! Maybe your right. Maybe big blue chunks of sky are going to start falling any time now. But you might think about drinking up all these good times before it gets that bad.

Your cyberspace friend, sig.

Steve@Perth
Was it you who posted, info, ph. no's for the perth mint - in reguards to purchasing physical metals.
How do you rank them compared to other Aussie suppliers.
Could you please post that info again.
Ta.

JTF: I agree. The dollar should be closely watched. Thats one of the reasons that I ask NJ and Millhouse from time to time for an update on Martin Armstrong ( Princeton Economics ) . His forecast suggests that the dollar will top out sometime next year versus the Yen and gold still has downwards momentum into the 200s. His thesis is that money is moving around the globe, currently into the U.S. dollar, seeking the best levels of return at rates that were unheard of a generation ago. Of course all this is facilitated by computers. These flows are becoming more important than are the fundamentals of the market themselves in terms of determining their valuations. With time, however, the uncertainty/volatility will become so great that people will turn to gold. At that point the gold bull starts. Interesting theory I think and bears watching.
I also think that oil should be closely watched. Higher prices in everything follow increased energy prices. I don't know what to make of Another's comments though. It seems that you could take all the information of his post and condense it into two sentences.

George Cole: De nada. I agree. RJ where are ya! Oldman to. Haven't heard from you in a couple of weeks.

Background for non-Canadians: Trimark is Canada's largest independent mutual fund company. It's founder & chairman Bob Krembel is one of if not the most respected mutual fund managers in Canada. Uses a quasi Buffett style value & long term hold approach to investing.

Excerpts Oct 18/97 Globe & Mail

If you are one of the thousands of investors in Trimark's Canadian equity or balanced funds, you are an owner of a good chunk of the world's least popular asset class: gold.

In a stunning reversal for one of Canada's most conservative mutual fund companies, Trimark bought a whopping $775-million in gold certificates over a three day period in July...

That adds up to a 5.1% weighting in the Canadian Fund, 5.1% in the RSP Equity Fund, 4.9% in the Select Canadian Fund, and 4.4% in each of the Income Growth Fund and Select Balanced Fund.

Thats a lot of bullion, particularly for a mutual fund company whose philosophy calls for holding a limited number of equities for a very long time.

Gold is normally purchased as a hedge against inflation, or by those who think demand will outstrip supply. But Mr. Maida provides a different and very focused rationale for Trimark's purchase.

"Our view is that the price of gold is selling below the all in cost of production, and it's selling below the cash cost of about - in our estimation - a third of the world's gold mines. When you have that situation it doesn't last forever. All commodities prices have to rise to, at least, their cost of production in the long term."

"We don't call commodity prices. It was a real opportunity for us to invest some of our cash in what we saw as an undervalued asset"...

Trimark's purchase is all the more extraordinary given Mr. Maida's view of gold mining stocks.

"When we analyze the value of Canadian gold companies, we cannot justify the share prices or the valuation that the market puts on these companies. They are trading substantially above their net asset value"...

The market is very, very, liquid, as shown by the fact that all that gold was purchased in only three days.

Trimark bought its certificates on July 4, 7, and 8 at an average cost of $321.

Actually, into one pungent word.
Another is actually another lab
experiment on the poor devoted
( gullible ) Kitcognats, who will
listen to anyone who says gold
is going to $10,000 and introduce
some exotic foreign element.

Grow up. I am kind of amused
by all the promotional machinery
which precedes and follows his
every post. Someone is very
busy, and apparently we have an
Another anthology in the works.
Maybe you could send out a
demo of Another's greatest hits.

JTF
Your'e quick of the mark. Drawn in a flash.
Bet you want to see the Global Gold A/D chart.
So do I!

Herr Sig--I'm sorry Herr Sig! I DO need to LIGHTEN UP! I'm selling all my
worhless paper promises first thing tomorrow morning and buying more GOLD! BEFORE the Globalist Fascists now in power make it illegal for me to so! I would strongly advise you and Tolerant 1 to do the same! The ambulance will be at my door any second now!

RJ, you have got to come back
to prove my point ( Oldman, Front )
about how these final goodbyes
are just attention getting devices
and cries for help from lonely old men.

You all actually have a profound
self-confidence problem, and
I wouldn't doubt if this isn't
the first time you have used
this ploy to force people to tell
you what a beautiful finger painting
you made.

There is a conjunction of events here that could bode very negatively for stocks and good for the yellow. This deal with Clinton and the fundraising is really heating up ( Even Frank Sesno on CNN was comind down pretty hard on a former DNC head ) . Clinton has claimed he didnt remember meeting some of these donors, have you seen the latest tapes? With the weakness in the markets already, the Asian economy problems, and the instability in our government, I have a feeling were going to see some fireworks here. And in lieu of Anothers posts, if that is where the gold has been going, if its on Kitco here, it must be becoming known to everyone..hang onto your hats..the ride has just begun...

If you are searching for facts you will
find them, but the items you find will
not be true! Did you think that the
high powered world of the LBMA
would operate in a fishbowl for
all to see? We cannot take what
is on the outside as evidence for
what is on the inside. To find the
answer work with inside assumptions
and extrapolate them to the outside!
Think now:
Would the world CBs really have
kept gold this long if they only valued
it at its ongoing commodity price?
Cannot only the offer of gold have
some value in a deal? Can paper gold
that has a commodity face value of, say
$300 be traded for its true value of
many thousands? Indeed, if your
worldly investments ( US stock market? )
are valued in the long run by a full supply
of oil, would not future gold in a Swiss acct.
make a good trade?
Do the oil states think our military is there to
protect them or protect oil?

Fact: If the world bids up the price of gold,
all deals will be off! It would be every nation
for themselves.Oil would explode in price!

HERR BOB M--Almost had another big one while reading your previous post! Didn't realize that some good common sense was finally coming back into vogue! Amen, brother! The fireworks IS just beginning ON MANY DIFFERENT BUT INTERRELATED FRONTS!!

Another-your commentary does make sense...the Arabs have sold oil cheap over the last years in terms of a devalued dollar...I take it you must be close to an inside source?

Gold is going to get wacked big time on Monday.

p.s. Hey another, why do you deliberatly use the spelling "noone" for none?

Golden Cheesehead-it is incredible listening to this former DNC head this morning on CNN, ask a question about the fund raising and response is but the results is what counts, the children, education, the environment would have suffered if the Repubs won..sounds like a coverup to me...the ball is rolling..get the hell out of the way

The instability in our goverment.

Guess I missed the no-confidence vote
and the mass resignation of the
cabinet, as well as the rioting
in the streets. Is that why the
president fled to South American
last week? Please, everyone
could we stop being so ethnocentric?
This is a Canadian site, so let's
concentrate on the instability
in Canadian government instead
of always pointing out the
daily collapse of the American
goverment, which is so
unstable that less than one
year ago we kept the same
unstable government in power
by a bloodless, orderly
REELECTION.

Just remember-when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold!

When US magazine folds, People picks up
its disgruntled subscribers

Wow-if you remember, Nixon won by a landslide in his second election only to find himself exiled a few short years later..we are discussing events that could have significant impacts on markets

TO: ALL READERS: Two stocks I would like to point out. Environmental Remediation Holding Company ( ERHC ) - recycler of hazardous waste, oil, tires - might be a solid stock.

Cash America ( PWN - Owns and operates over 300 pawn shops in the US alone

I think both of these stocks will do well in a down turn. All that glitters is not gold.

Remember when gold when to $800 after his
resignation? Oh sorry, 5-6 years after his
resignation.

It's called Silicon Investors

Stop pimping stocks here

I was not pimping stocks, merely make a suggestion that all that glitters is not gold. Gold may be the ultimate store of value, however, it is not the only game in town.

Not to diversify in any market would be unwise in either investing or thinking.

But I do apologize, if this content offended you.

Internationally acclaimed & venerable Mr. Inger shares his market insights & wisdom with us. Lately hes been VERY HOT-VERY HOT! Per Ingers Worst case scenario is DOW could drop 30%...:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger1020.html

Herr Tolerant 1--We'll see how glittery all that paper you'd like us to believe is a good investment REALLY is once the big bad bear market gathers some steam and we pass from stage one, DOUBT, to stages two, three and four, FEAR, PANIC and CAPITULATION!

THE ONLY PAPER THAT WILL BE WORTH ANYTHING IF AG can't deflate this outrageously overvalued stock market bubble without destroying the US Dollar and the American dream will be the US CONSTITUTION and THE BILL OF RIGHTS! Oh yes, and the BIBLE!

To Master Sun with pleasure
Linear Regression charts on Dow!

A chart is worth a thousand pieces of gold if it shows where the gold is located ( :o ) ) ) ) )

DJ: Thanks for the interesting chart on Nick's data ( and of course, thank you Nick for the data! ) . The 20:1 ratio for Gold/Oil is not news per the information on the Gold Eagle site.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/crude_oil/black_gold.html

Cherokee
You have seen tomorrow, what others cannot concieve today
For your eyes a feast.
Gold Linear Regression charts.

Office 97 is a wizz!

These only take ten minutes to cook up.

If we're to believe what ANOTHER has been posting lately--THE WORLD IS ALREADY ON THE GOLD STANDARD!! WE JUST HAVEN'T BEEN INFORMED ABOUT IT,YET!! Quick! Somebody tell the Prez! Gott im Himmel! I feel another big one coming on!

Another: Your argument that the CBs are striving mightily to keep gold down but will not be able to do so much longer makes sense. But I find your gold/oil pricing argument hard to believe. Seems to me that gold will follow oil higher, not visa versa. My understanding is that the Saudis have much more invested in global financial markets than they do in gold bullion, even if the latter is valued at %1,000 per ounce. Still think the primary motive for CB sales and leasing is to support the global financial bubble, or at least to prevent its too rapid deflation.

BTW, would be interested in you opinion of the argument made by some here that there has been heavy gold selling of late from one or more European CBs, and the price will collapse as soon as this is made public.

The opening line 'Their is only one oil state that counts, only one", seems to indicate that he refers to Saudi Arabia who I understand produces about 8 million barrels per day ( If my figure is correct it would total about 2.88 billion barrels annually over 360 days ) .
From there one would have to use a gold premium of $X or $XXX, whatever that means. If I use X = XXX = $10 per barrel and gold at $326, it works out to about 88.34 million ounces.
Problem is that the world leaders have created an ENIGMA in the numbers, and we can only search for them.

TO: ALL READERS - The following is from a year ago in Gold Newsletter. I think the Asians have been, are and will continue to purchase huge amounts of gold. In addition, I think that cyber-gold transfers have already come about and a great deal of smart money is going to start showing up in cyberspace and soon.

JIM BLANCHARD ( Gold Newsletter )
"Well, as I keep saying over and over in these pages, the wealth being created in Asia is absolutely phenomenal. Most people have no comprehension of the extent of it. It has been well documented that Asians in general have an unusually high affinity for gold as a means of protecting their savings against currency depreciation.

The huge economic growth rates and high savings rates across Asia will continue to translate into staggering demand for gold - such an avalanche of demand that central banks, producers and others who have been selling into price rallies will eventually be overwhelmed. As Franklin Sanders and I argued in "Silver Bonanza," both silver and gold will eventually achieve new specie standards in the next bull market, not based on government convertibility, but rather on the individual choices of hundreds of millions of consumers across the world. Many will be choosing cyber cash and, eventually, encrypted cyber-gold transfers.

The implications for a new privately transferred currency that does not depend on the promises of governments are mind boggling."

CHEESEHEAD: I merely make a suggestion for diversification if the world does not implode as per you most recent post. In addition, gold in cyberspace is appealing to me. I assure you it is the wave of the future and exists now. A digital receipt is okay with me. Again, if the world does not end.



Friday October 17 5:31 PM EDT

New Indian gold market deregulation welcomed - WGC

NEW YORK, Oct 17 ( Reuters ) - The Indian government's decision Thursday to allow all authorized agents importing gold and
silver to sell gold on the domestic Indian market from the start of 1998 is a major further step in the liberalization of India's
gold market, the World Gold Council ( WGC ) said Friday.

``The World Gold Council, which has strongly supported and encouraged the Indian authorities in their progressive
liberalization of the market, warmly welcomes this decision,'' said Robert Pringle, head of the WGC's Public Policy Center.

The significance of the move is that at present banks and other authorized institutions can import gold only for certain restricted
purposes: to sell to exporters, or to returning non-resident Indians ( NRIs ) or to holders of special import licences, the WGC
said.

But the official statement by the Indian government said ``with the liberalization, these agencies will now supply gold and
silver for general sales in the domestic market and the Reserve Bank of India ( RBI ) may nominate other agencies to undertake
such imports,'' the WGC noted.

Foreign banks such as the Bank of Nova Scotia, ABN Amro and Standard Chartered are among the beneficiaries of the new
policy.

``The de-regulation of the Indian gold market began in the early 1990s and since then Indian demand has doubled to 508
tonnes last year and has already surpassed that total this year,'' WGC manager of market analysis George Milling-Stanley said.

India is the largest consumer of gold and silver in the world.

``This move opens up a completely new channel into the domestic market,'' Pringle said.

``As imports will be subject only to duty at about five percent, the move is likely to have over time a major impact on prices in
India and parallel markets,'' he said.

``In the near term, imports may decline as traders liquidate their current stocks, but the Council nevertheless expects gold
offtake for the year as a whole to be appreciably higher than last year, and in the long run the Council expects the move to lead
to a steady increase in gold consumption in India,'' Pringle said.

The government's objectives are to provide a boost to the export of gold and jewellery and to bring into legal channels much of
the present illegal financing of gold imports as a step toward full capital account convertibility, the WGC believes.

India made its currency fully convertible on current account in August 1994.

Capital account transactions for have already been liberalized for foreign investors, non-resident depositors and resident
companies with external commercial borrowing.

Controls continue to operate however on the ability of resident individuals and companies to send capital abroad.

In June this year an official Indian committee recommended a phased implementation of capital account convertibility over a
three year period, ending in 2000.

For many decades India's official policy has been to try to wean consumers away from gold as it was argued that gold
purchases tended to divert savings which might otherwise go into industrial investment and gold imports were seen as a threat
to the balance of payments.

``That policy and the arguments underlying it have been abandoned,'' Pringle said.

``Like other major countries, India has decided that the benefits of closer integration with world trade and financial markets
outweigh any possible disadvantages.''

More news for related categories and industries: mining, stock capsules.


Help

Just something to think about.

For some reason the gif files lost their link to the html file.
Those charts that I posted can be viewed by going to
'Add A Comment' then scrolling down to
'Click here'
They are the gif files numbered 7 to 17.

Maybe Another is an Arab that is in the know on this matter...anything is possible..sure is an interesting scenario to contemplate...whomever he is..he has kept the thinking on the edge

HERR TOLERANT 1--Why diversify into something that is slowly being turned into nothing! What you say in your last post is true! Asia CANNOT BE ALLOWED by the Western CB's to trash paper and buy gold! How better to make sure this doesn't happen than by getting some rich third party like George Soros to trash Asian currencies BEFORE they trash ours and buy gold to replace it! Makes perfect sense to me! And apparently to some Asians leaders! On this point I am not dogmatic--just curious!

In the past we have made reference to things priced in ounces, the man's suit analogy, the 53 Chevrolet, etc. Why should we be surpised to learn that oil is no different?

The chart that DJ just prepared is an inflation adjusted chart, the adjustment is done by gold, not by the CPI. The Saudis getting a price in gold for their oil is no different than the price you pay for your suit in gold.

The inflation shown on this log?, semi-log? chart is in the Dow, from a ratio of 2:1 to 26:1 as priced by gold and 40:1 to 400:1 as priced in oil.

Cmax: I do recall sending you something, although I don't remember if it was "Total Collapse" or a sample newsletter. My records show that you have not yet ordered "Total Collapse." Is that correct? E-mail your reply to me at bpuetz@holli.com -- fill me in on the details.

HERE CHEESEHEAD: I could provide you with millions of pages of materials that suggest, infer, imply and or outright prove that Mr. Clinton, and others are winning the war here at home.

Red China and Other Nations

In The U.S. During The New World Order By Gurudas Copyright 1997 Gurudas

In recent months many people have expressed concern about the growing influence of Red China in the U.S. Red China is increasingly energized economically and continues to expand its military. Former White House aide George Stephanopoulos said March 16, 1997 on ABC This Week the administration support of China "reflected the influence of the Council on Foreign Relations ( CFR ) ." Red China has always been part of the New World Order although at a more peripherial level. As the New York Times said in February, 1972 in conjunction with Nixon's opening to Red China, Nixon was "merely reiterating the belief he brought to China that both nations share an interest in peace and building a new world order." China is building a large facility including an ammunition plant in Adelanto, California to distribute its products with 1,000 Chinese workers expected to move in. There are plans to build similar facilities in Charleston, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana. U.S. tax payers are subsidizing a $138 million loan guarantee to build ships for the China Ocean Shipping Co. ( COSCO ) in Alabama. This company is controlled by the Chinese military.

Herr TOLERANT 1--Your post only goes to show how quickly this futurist globalist delusion is fast becoming our worst nightmare here and now! This post does not comfort me in the least and should bother every thinking American or Canadian citizen who values LIBERTY, FREEDOM, SOUND MONEY and HONESTY IN GOVERNMENT! DANKE for the info!

CHEESEHEAD: If my last post got your blood boiling, this one is even better. From http://www.civil-liberties.com/


PART II - The United States is still a British Colony

Bend Over America

It's not an easy thing having to tell someone they have been conned into believing they are free. For some, to accept this is comparable to denying God Almighty.

You have to be made to understand that the United States is a corporation, which is a continuation of the corporate Charters created by the king of England. And that the states upon ratifying their individual State constitutions, became sub corporations under and subordinate to the United States. The counties and municipalities became sub corporations under the State Charters. It is my duty to report further evidence concerning the claims I made in "The United States is Still a British Colony, part 1."

I have always used a copy of the North Carolina Constitution provided by the State, I should have known better to take this as the finial authority. To my knowledge the following quote has not been in the Constitution the State hands out or those in use in the schools. The 1776 North Carolina Constitution created a new corporate Charter, and declared our individual freedoms. However, the same corporate Charter, reserved the king's title to the land, which restored, and did not diminish, his grants that were made in his early Charters. If you remember, I made the claim that legally we are still subject to the king. In the below quote you will see that the king declares our taxation will be forever, and that a fourth of all gold and silver will be returned to him.

"YIELDlNG AND PAYING yearly, to us, our heirs and Successors, for the same, the yearly Rent of Twenty Marks of Lawful money of England, at the Feast of All Saints, yearly, forever, The First payment thereof to begin and be made on the Feast of All Saints which shall be in the year of Our Lord One thousand six hundred Sixty and five; AND also, the fourth part of all Gold and Silver Ore which, with the limits aforesaid, shall, from time to time, happen to be found."

Another: Your point that the CBs know gold really will be worth far more than the current depressed commodity price in the long run does make sense. Despite all the talk about massive CB dumping they actually have sold very little gold on balnce in recent years. Their primary weapon has been cheap gold loans extended to short sellers and an intensive propaganda campaign against the yellow through a compliant financial press.

Where is WW? I enjoyed his argument with Mr. Tolerant1last evening. I never posted until now but I have to say that WW is right for the most part. I think big money interests have to be battled and government regulation is a way of preserving America's freedom. Tolreant 1 just seems to have a blind hatred of government.

http://www.accessatlanta.com:80/business/news/1997/10/19/bear_awake.html

Golden Cheesehead - what are you like during the offseason? The Pack
takes a day off and you go ballistic. Personnally, I'm with tolerant1
on the government/freedom discussion. I believe this strongly enough to
move to Phoenix to work on a global satelite phone system which will
play an important part in the destroying the statism/governments of the
world. The golf isn't bad either.

tolerant1 11:40 - is the part about going to dinner with Hayek part of
the Blanchard quote or was it you? I ask because I only remember 1 other
person bringing up F.A. Hayek here at Kitco - he was run off by John's
and other personal attackes I think.

TO: KUSTON - A direct quote from Mr. Blanchard in the article.

http://www.accessatlanta.com:80/business/news/1997/10/19/wallst_japan.html

Herr Kuston--Your right! I'm bored to death when the Packers aren't dismantling some antagonistic foe on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field!
I need guys like to constantly keep reminding me that it's only a game! The real life and death issues are worldviews such as yours and mine which could only co-exist in a country like ours! Too bad that only one of 'em can ultimately triumph! I'll stick with what got us here, while you and your new age cronies work to bring about the technological infrastructure for big brother's fascist utopia! No wonder this thing is pictured as a great beast rising out of the sea in the last book of the Bible!

Somebody here predicted that gold will be wacked Monday. Maybe so, maybe no. But I hope so. I have only a modest position in gold shares now and want to buy more as cheaply as possible.

TO: ROAR - WHAT ROAR SAID: "I think big money interests have to be battled and government regulation is a way of preserving America's freedom."

My hatred of government is not blind ROAR.

Compromise and Concealment: The Road to Defeat, Part II
by Jacob G. Hornberger, October 1997

The libertarian philosophy holds that people should be free to do whatever they want, so long as their conduct is peaceful. Therefore, government's role in life should be limited to: ( 1 ) punishing people who initiate force against others--murderers, rapists, thieves, invaders, and the like; and ( 2 ) serving as a judicial arbiter in the event of disputes among people--e.g., breaches of contracts and torts.

The only practical and realistic approach is for libertarians to call for immediately ending, not reforming or reducing, all socialistic and interventionist programs.

"But that would result in chaos," the "lazy man's" libertarian responds. "People will not take us seriously if we call for such a radical solution."

But immediately ending such programs would not result in chaos. On the contrary, it would result in an immediate outburst of creative energy and soaring prosperity. Let's look at two historical examples.

Prior to the War of Secession, people argued that it would be immoral and impractical to immediately free the slaves. To do so would be cruel to the slaves, the argument went. They had no savings and few job skills for a free market. "We must gradually reduce slavery, rather than end it all at once," the reducers claimed. Otherwise, there would be chaos and starvation among the former slaves.

Yet, when Lee surrendered to Grant at Appomatox, the slaves were immediately freed. And despite all the predictions of chaos, strife, and starvation, the former slaves did well financially. In fact, they did so well that white legislators later passed Jim Crow laws to protect themselves from economic competition from the former slaves.

I don't think that gold gets whacked on Monday. I think it goes sideways or up from here. Much bigger fish are entering the market and at a very fast pace.

The "they" people in the world are under tremendous pressure from huge short positions. Some very big money, THE BILLION AND MILLIONaires post I put up before from Gold Newsletter.

Major sparks are about to fly and they will be golden ones. If it turns into a globe run amuck or a major shifting of power or one of a million different scenarios is anybodys guess.

But while zillions of us have been contemplating what is going on the above are rethinking their strategies and will come out flexing their muscles in the not too distant future.

But to retain a sense of humor about the entire cosmos I never forget to say this to myself once a day.

Todays lecture, Man, Master of the Universe has been cancelled due to the weather.

Tolerant 1 I was always taught the government and the people are one in a Democracy as the law is made to protect regular folk. For the most part it is true and we voluntarily pay tax to maintain the free democratic system. The governmeant protects us small guys from the big guys by laws regulating the big guys. Your example of the economic and liberaterian dominance for whites vs blacks after the civil war was to enact jim crow laws against the people of color so in the nd those with less power were crushed because there was no laws to protect them ie the white man had the freedom to do what he wanted. This same type of dominance of one group over another or rich over poor could occur again without government protection and regulation. Your ideas seem extreme.

With due respect, I nominate Another as Kitco Story Teller of the Year. We haven't read such profound intrigue since the cryptic BT left the scene awhile back. I can't help but notice how otherwise reasonable Kitcoites get caught-up in suspensefull back-room strategic yarns.

Anything is possible as insider trading is a fact of life. One has to ask how Another could know of what he writes and for what reason he would grant us the benefits of his wisdom as he is not willing to state his profession or business background.

It is easy to say that in my lifetime ( I'm 44 ) I will see $10,000 gold as this doesn't tell me what the DOW would be or how much a loaf of bread would cost.

I am not a detractor of opinions expressed but, instead, an interested
observer and questioner of those who propose new explanations without a reference to who they are - however generic ( ie- I am a precious metals broker, etc. ) .

the differnec between Puetz and Another is that I know who Puetz is and respect his opinion even though I may not agree with some of his analytical explanation. The goes for RJ, I agree with his analysis and disagree, at times, with his choice of delivery style but at least I
know where he is coming from - a broker who is talking his book and prospecting for PM coin clients - no problem with me.

But Another ? Hey man give us a break and let us know who you are so that we may know where you are coming from and leading us - surely this could be disclosed without revealing ( if you so desire ) your name and industry association.

I would love to know that you are an insider of the LMBA or connected to an Arab sponsored bullion bank and I would then nominate you as King of Kitco instead of Story Teller of the Year.

With due respect.

Cheers

Golden Cheesehead 16:01 - Why do you think we will give this to big
brother? THis is a private system owned by a shareholders.

Tolerant 1 as a liberaterian are you in favor of laws protecting the minorities and evening the playing field through affirmative action.

To George Cole. & Mr. Puetz... A recent posting stated the following

"Therefore, the stock market probably will provide ample signals that it is top heavy before any serious decline occurs. For that reason, we need not fear another crash at this time. Even so, the bear is hibernating but is not extinct. "

If I am not mistaken, most of the major stock market highs ( new Bear Markets ) that caused

significant downside corrections were preceeded by a few months of increasing long term interest rates. So, far we have seen one interest rate

increase this year. The bond market up till now has shown remarkable

strength. If we are witnessing a change in this interest rate mentality of stock market highs and will experience a major market correction without those early warning signs all the "experts" are hoping for, would this not

be an exception for the markets? Also, this may be the actual scenario developing now and if so, all hell may break loose especially to all the

inexperienced stock and money fund managers. Your views would be appreciated..

Best regards,

Slick

I chose an example, I am not a Libertarian, I am not for quotas. Quite frankly, I am thinking of buying a boat and staying 110 miles offshore in international waters.

Stopping in once in a while to hear the local propaganda in those parts and make way again. Gold wil be my store of value of choice. I will fly the flag of World Wide Customer.

I will sew all the flags of the world into a circus tent and invite Gallager and his sledge -o- matic to explain life, the universe and how to deal with the phone company.

tolerant1 - if you figure out the phone company, please let us know.
In my new residence I'm going to try to going without a landline. Now
I have to find a cell provider that I can live with.

Gold investors are an insignificant minority interest in the universe of investment. The CBs can and would manipulate the gold price through market interventions - as they do with currencies - to avoid devaluing the paper reserves. CBs own more paper valued inventories than physical gold and it is not probable that CBs would allow gold to rise uncontrollably and thereby devalue their paper IF they could.

The market is compliant with the wishes of the CBs as it represents a fiat market where gold is held within a range and pro traders have a reletively safe playing field knowing that the CBs will keep prices within a range,.

Lesser developed countries may still prefer gold as the tradition bound currency but the world leaders know that gold must be controlled if the global financial economy - the nominal paper economy - can continue to grow without retreating to a counter currency - gold.

To this extent Another has the right theme but the power lobby is US centric - the world has decided that US dollars are defacto world currency and the Yen and DM ( forerunner to ECU ) are acceptable countervailing currencies. The world economy rests on this funadamnetal rule of law and gold is range bound to secure the continuation of the rule.

Talk about how the private sector could blow gold prices sky-high by betting against the CB market manipulation is certainly possible but highly unlikely - I refer to a sky-high price as above the historic high ( $800 ) .

The Arabs have learned to be world players so they exchange oil stability for military protection. The Arabs also get to spend their oil money on hotels, Apple Computer, and any other prized artifacts of western industrial civilization. Why would the Sud family dramatically increase oil prices without provocation of real underlying demand and supply interuption ? There is no rhyme or reason. If Iran and Iraq blow-up oil will be threatended but the Arabs of Sudi Arabia and Kuwait own most of the middle east black gold and the US military would immediately back them up. I suggest that the U.S. is now prepared to use nuclear arms against Iraq or Iran as both nations have insulted the US with a provocated war and embassy hostage incident, respectively, that most Americans remember well. Americans are conditioned to expect a Suddam show-down and this time they want him terminated.

So the bottom line ( to this accountant ) is that gold will be range bound unless a retail investor mania could challenge the CBs to allow the trading range to go higher - perhaps $380- $420.

The reality is that the CBs don't want to have their huge paper inventories of domestic and foreign ( US ) assets depreciated by the gold price. Agfterall, if the CBs could manipulate the gold price in their absence a well financed group could esily jack the price of gold sky-high given its very small reletive value to the global paper ( currency+bonds+stocks ) market. The gold market is truly insignificant in value but precious in terms of investor psychology. Therein lies the nut.

Cheers.

"COMPLACENCY"
( -courtesy of the NY Times: )

October 19, 1997
A Decade and a Bull Ride Later,
Complacency Reigns
Related Articles
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So Far, Just 1929 and 1987 Are Under His Belt
Stocks Plunge 508 Points, a Drop of 22.6%; 604 Million Volume Nearly
Doubles Record ( Oct. 20, 1987 )

Front Page
Image of The Times' Front Page, Oct. 20, 1987
By FLOYD NORRIS

As trading moved toward a close on the worst day in stock market
history, a crowd of young investment bankers gathered around the
fringes of the trading floor at one of Wall Street's premier firms.

They did not work on the trading floor, and arguably had no business
being on it. But there they stood, in stunned silence, watching the
electronic ticker tape march across the wall.

It did not matter to them that the prices on the tape were hopelessly out of
date, an hour or more old and, in some cases, dozens of dollars higher
than the real prices at which trades were being made. The bankers were
watching what was obviously an epochal event, wondering if it meant the
end of their careers and of the comfortable, even extravagant, way of life
that had made Wall Street an oasis of wealth.

The chief stock trader, who had spent the day desperately trying to
preserve the firm's capital while witnessing selling on a scale never before
seen, looked up a little before 4 p.m. and saw the assembled bankers.
"I'm sure," he said, a bit testily, "that you have other things to do."

They didn't, of course. But they rapidly dispersed. It was not the time to
offend senior management.

When the tape finally caught up with all the trading, the Dow Jones
industrial average ended that day -- Oct. 19, 1987 -- down 508 points,
or 23 percent, at 1,738.74. It was the greatest crash ever, or certainly
since 1929. There had never been a day when prices fell so far.

Now, a decade later, the 1987 crash seems like a footnote in the great
bull market that began in 1982 and still lives. That is true even after the
Dow fell 210 points in the final two days of last week, in what one wag
called "an anniversary celebration."

Larger dips have been quickly reversed many times since 1987, as
investors learned what has become the great lesson of the crash. That
lesson is not one that seemed apparent at the time. It is that declines
provide buying opportunities.

"The No. 1 lesson was that you should buy when Wall Street has a
one-day sale," said David Shulman, the chief equity strategist of Salomon
Brothers. "That lesson may be overlearned by now."

It certainly has been widely learned. Barton Biggs, Morgan Stanley's chief
strategist for global equities, tells of trying to find a plumber in Ketchum,
Idaho, where he has a home, over Labor Day weekend this year. Most
were on vacation. The one he finally found knew quite well who Biggs
was, and was scornful of his recent bearishness.

"You're lucky to get me, because I'm doing less plumbing these days," the
plumber told Biggs. "I've got $300,000 in the market on margin. I'm
making three times as much money this year from trading stocks as I am
from plumbing, and I don't have to stick my hands down other people's
drains. For years now, I've bought stocks on dips when you Wall Street
guys were beating your breasts and crying bear."

In 1987, the crash seemed to teach quite different lessons. One that may
be the most relevant today was that sophisticated derivative securities
were highly destabilizing to the market, even though they were being used
in what investors thought were conservative ways.

Now there are new techniques -- being used in different ways -- that
could have a similar impact, by leading to heavy selling after prices fall. If
the market ever does break sharply again, those strategies will come
under intense scrutiny.

A lesson of 1987 that seemed clear at the time, but not now, concerned
valuation. Stock prices by many measures were very high at the 1987
peak, and the crash seemed to vindicate those who had been warning of
severe overvaluation.

Now, by many of those same yardsticks, stock prices are much more
overvalued. Yet Wall Street for the most part does not care. It is said that
prices are quite reasonable, given falling interest rates, the outlook for low
inflation and continued economic growth. Those who spoke of excessive
valuations a year ago have been largely discredited by the market's
continued advance.

Immediately after the crash, one certainty to many people was that the
plunge must have contained an economic warning. Stock prices, after all,
are part of the index of leading economic indicators.

"Analysts all said that the market is saying something, and what it is saying
is that 1988 is going to be a very bad year," recalled Richard Pucci of
I.B.E.S. International Inc., a company that tracks earnings estimates by
Wall Street analysts and publishes consensus figures. "So they lowered
estimates dramatically."

In fact, the economic effect of the crash was minimal, and the analysts
spent the rest of 1988 raising estimates. It was the only year since 1980
that analysts, as a group, underestimated a year's corporate profits at the
beginning of the year.

The crash did have a depressant effect on Wall Street, and on the New
York economy, for a number of years. For instance, a woman who sells
very expensive furniture in Manhattan says that only this year has business
been as good as it was in the months before the 1987 crash.

But for most of America, there was little impact. In fact, it is possible that
business was a little stronger in 1988 than it would have been without the
crash. The Federal Reserve Board, which had been pushing interest rates
up, changed course abruptly after the market plunged, stimulating an
economy that was doing fine anyway.

It took some time to appreciate just how much of the selling on Oct. 19
and the days around it had come as a result of an institutional investment
strategy known as portfolio insurance.

Details varied, but the basic idea was that institutions could lock in profits,
at minimal cost, by selling stock index futures contracts as prices fell.
Then, every future sold would lock in previously made profits on the
stocks. Or so the theory went.

What happened was that such selling overwhelmed the market, driving
down prices in the futures market much farther than they otherwise would
have fallen. It did not start the crash, but it made it much worse. ( It is also
possible that the confidence induced by portfolio insurance drove prices
higher before the crash than they otherwise would have risen, because
investors who thought stocks were overvalued saw no need to sell them,
given that they had an insurance policy against losses. )

Portfolio insurance was destabilizing precisely because it required selling
at the worst possible time -- when prices were already falling. Such selling
drove down the prices of stock index futures and brought in index
arbitragers, who bought the futures and then sold individual stocks.

In the aftermath of the crash, portfolio insurance got a very bad name.
Because it relied on selling index futures only after prices had begun to
fall, it was compared to buying fire insurance amid the flames.

That particular strategy has died. But related ones have made strong
comebacks in recent years. Those strategies depend on options of one
sort or another, and come in all kinds of flavors. Most are based on
so-called over-the-counter options, which are usually sold to institutions
by investment banks and commercial banks.

Such an option might protect an institutional investor with a lot of
technology stocks by giving it the right to sell a basket of those stocks at a
certain price by a certain date. In return for an upfront payment for that
kind of option -- a put option -- the investment bank would guarantee that
the technology stock investor would lose no more than a certain amount.
To keep the insurance analogy going, that is equivalent to buying
insurance before a fire begins.

The investment bank that issued that option probably does not want to
bet on technology stocks. So it can hedge its exposure in a variety of
ways. One way, called dynamic hedging, bears a suspicious resemblance
to the portfolio insurance of old.

If prices fall, the bank will hedge by shorting the underlying stocks. It they
rise, it will buy back stocks. Either way, it is going with the market flow,
thus adding a bit to volatility, which has been high lately.

How much of that volatility is due to dynamic hedging? No one knows,
because no figures are made public on trading in over-the-counter
options. "I suspect there is less now than in 1987," says Bruce I. Jacobs,
a principal with Jacobs Levy Equity Management in Roseland, N.J., and a
longtime critic of dynamic hedging. "But it is hard to know. It is a total
unknown."

Such hedging has the potential to destabilize the market as portfolio
insurance did in 1987. The dynamic hedgers will do fine if the next bear
market is a gradual affair, but will suffer greatly if prices plunge before
they can put their hedges into place.

The increasing sophistication of derivative securities has made it possible
to cut up the risks of owning stocks, and to transfer all or part of those
risks to any number of others. Whether those risks are being handled
wisely, and whether they pose threats either to individual firms or even to
the overall market, cannot be known now, while stock prices are high.

Were there to be another crash, the economic impact could be much
greater than in the aftermath of 1987. Such a crash, of course, might
signal something fundamental about the economy. In any case, a
prolonged slump in stocks would directly affect more people, if only
because there are more investors now.

While many aren't as deeply invested as Biggs's plumber, many now have
retirement money in defined-contribution plans, like 401 ( k ) 's, rather than
in traditional pension plans, and would thus feel pain if stocks fell sharply.

It is unlikely, but not impossible, that stock prices will again fall 23 percent
in one day. The New York Stock Exchange has put in place circuit
breakers that would halt trading temporarily at various levels after sharp
declines.

The longest planned halt, of an hour, would come if the Dow fell 550
points, about 7 percent at current levels. But such a halt could come early
enough that the market would reopen late in the day with no more artificial
floors.

Circuit breakers have worked relatively well in commodities markets,
including in stock index futures, where they have clicked in on some bad
days. But while a rule that restricts some trading strategies has often been
invoked, circuit breakers have never halted stock trading.

It is possible they would perform as hoped, giving investors time to study
prices, conclude they were cheap, and send in buy orders. But investors
might conclude that the halt had given them time to submit their sell orders
before prices fell further.

In 1929, those who sold at the first crash proved to be the fortunate ones.
Those who held on were wiped out in the ensuing depression. In 1987,
those who bought in the first crash -- which turned out to be the only one
-- were the fortunate ones.

Since then, the belief that stocks are always the best long-term investment
has been embraced by many investors and market commentators. That
theory, which would have seemed incomprehensible to someone who
survived the 1929 crash and the long bear market that followed, will no
doubt stimulate buying on weakness and make a new crash less likely.

In connection with the crash anniversary, Elrick & Lavidge, a polling firm,
conducted a survey for American Century Investments, a mutual fund
group. Most respondents said they thought there would not be a crash in
the next five years, and a majority agreed with the statement that if there
was a crash, it "would not be a major concern to me because I am a
long-term investor."

In 1987, the crash traumatized investment bankers and small investors
alike. A deacde later it has produced something that no one could have
forecast: complacency.

Thor - Good post. Thank.

Another - Not a good idea to argue from silence as you can construct any line of thinking based on some un stated 'fact'. You obviously feel strongly about your ideas. But there are some inconsistencies in sme of the facts and how they work out. Particularly with regard to nation to nation deals. I don't see most modern nations' CBs being involved in oil purchases. And so don't see how anyone could infer that the CB's are parting with gold to assure a low oil price. I could see that deals are worked out to use gold as part of a purchase agreement. Heck, you could do that with anything, even pork bellies if you wanted them. I don't see how CB's are involved. This again starts to smell like grand conspiracy theorizing. Sure it could happen but I doubt it given human nature for what its proven of itself over the years.

It regards to 'the only nation' thing it soundsd like a bit of national pride therre. Are you a Saudi?

ONE CADANIAN MUTAUL FUND BUYS 100 TONNES OF GOLD IN THREE DAYS!!! Only took 5% of assets. Big news but it seems these days that only sales by CB's make the news, eh?

I wonder what would happen if a few more of the MFund brethren got r'ligin? Or have they already since they all luch together so often. I notice they went right for bullion, no intermediate in stox.

One of these days we'll be a happy little group, no?

++++++++++++++++
NOTE: I think we all realize that much of what we're talking about happening would be extremely devastating to many people, even people close to us. That is my sense for the silence in the few times we've notice drops or market chaos. It seems to me this shows the level of humanity that participants have here. On the one hand we'd like to make a few bucks or keep from losing a few. On the other hand we recognize the trauma and true pain that many could experience in the aftermath of the various decline/collapse senerios that have been posted here.

Hope that says that we care more about people than possessions.

Roar @LA: Funny how a second liberal now from LA would misspell Libertarian ( you typed Liberatarian ) the exact same way ole WW from Vermont does. 'Fess up son, you're just looking for a rematch under a new handle!

Affirmative action is an American experiment in reverse discrimination and the rest of the world couldn't care less. Two wrongs don't make a right. You cannot correct an injustice by creating a new injustice or by perpetuating an old one. Come clean WW and tell us where you think gold is going tonight.

George - A few weeks ago, you said the gold
bull you predicted was underway and it was
time to BUY GOLD. Imagine my confusion when
you say you hope gold gets whacked on Monday
so you can buy gold. Where does that leave
the people who bought gold when you told them
to buy gold two weeks ago? Do you not care
about them? Do you not want their gold to
go up rather than down? Or is this all just
a game with you? Do you really invest real
money when you make your predictions? Do
you expect others to?

For those who want to read verbatim what George Cole wrote.

George, I have lost a lot of faith in you from this comment.

Allen, et al:
"Mother-nature" and the "Markets" ... tend to run out of patience, and compassion, when they have been exploited and manipulated ....
for generations....
The "Lord/Law" giveth...and take-th away ... so to speak

many listen, few hear
and so the 'rain' will fall
on the just
and the unjust

"for every action
there is an equal
and opposite
re-action"

( how else could it be?! )

Dave - Had you gone to Harlem or
East Cairo, Ill. for your K-12
education, you wouldn't be making
such ignorant assessments. Neither
your job or pretty much any job
is so difficult that it couldn't
be performed by any person of
any color adequately trained.
In areas where the playing
field is level - sports ( but
not all sports ) , popular music,
entertainment - the white
race is sadly deficient in
number. So be careful
when you argue against
affirmative action.
You might get what you
wish for, and every
position of any importance
in this country will
be filled by a minority.

Another is probably some guy in one of those co-ops you see when driving from any of the ny airports to the city

Where are my THOUGHTS leading?

Yes, Mr. Cole you are correct. The Central
Banks have known for quite some time the
true value of gold in todays paper world.
In a very real sense they are on our side.
Lets take their side if you will. They are not
dumb or stupid, in fact many of them are the
best of the best! You see, the world grew up
and ran away from them, totally out of control.
It has left in its wake a money system of
colossal debt and political mismanagement.
They know it is over.
We are all at a giant poker table and the
CBs act as the dealer. One day soon the
game will end and the players will try to
cash in the chips. In that day the dealer
will act in our own best interest. They will
not pay out gold for the chips. The money
system will start over, from scratch.

Also:
It is easy to know that gold could not have
been traded for all oil sold. This was never
the intent. They only wanted to pull a small
amount out of circulation on a regular basis.
Using a small amount of oil as a partial trading
vehicle gold could be purchased in an all
paper deal to hide its price. As I said before,
if they walked up to the plate and started buying
outright it would run the price. It is working.
They only need 200 million ozs. When the
system breaks that gold would be worth
all the oil in Arabia and then some.
The Asians are the problem, by buying
up bullion worldwide and thru South Africa
they created a default situation on all the
paper for the oil / gold trade! Now the
CBs are selling in the open to calm nerves
but its known that they will never sell enough.
It was never their intent to provide the gold,
only the backing until new mining technology
could increase production. Over time the
forward sales, such as ABXs should have
worked. But LBMA went nuts with the game
and the whole mess has now accelerated.

If gold would happen to go down on Monday and
you say "Now is the time to buy gold", should
we listen? Or should we just expect that in
a couple more weeks, you'll say "Now is the
time to buy gold" again?

http://www.nowhere.com

To George cole:

I hope gold gets wacked monday too!! Because I'm short those gold shares. Esp ABX and newmont

Another's latest post makes alot of sense!

Hey, WW, it sure does make sense.
I'm going to short gold when it gets above $10,000/oz. though

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

The gold mkt comments here are interesting. GSC When is the big rally going to continue take a stand and admit your wrong if it does not happen. Lets get rid of this poltical nonsense between individuals on this sight and stick ta the precious metals.

Slick: What I found so amusing about that article by Donald Ratajczak, the economist from Atlanta who said we will get ample warning, is that he is ignoring all of the warnings that are increasingly visible daily.

He is making the same mistake that economists made in 1929. They are looking at domestic econonic numbers and ignoring the worlds financial numbers. They should focus on debt levels and credit-worthyness of individuals, corporations and governments. On new, wildly leveraged manufacturing capacity scheduled to come on line world wide, not nationally. They ignore SE Asia, Japan and Korea by saying it is only a small portion of the U.S. market. They don't seem to understand how everything connects to everything. When I first came on this website I kept looking for articles about deflation because that is what I expect. I rarely found them 4 or 5 months ago. Now I can find several a day. They have access to the same stuff I post here daily but don't seem to understand the message. It is a rare day when an economist from a brokerage firm writes a gloomy forecast, he won't have a job for long.

About the most appropriate thing said on Kitco in the
last week.

Barft has deferred for 1-1/2 years instituting any
kind of registration at this site. He again nixed
the idea yesterday? Why? Are some of his friends
benefitting from the ability to post whenever they
want as whoever they want? Is Barft himself taking
advantage of this?

Another's comments are fun to read but nothing more than office gossip.

Everyone at this site is well aware of the supply/demand imbalance that exists.

George Cole, I appreciate your posts very much. Thank you for sharing your experience and knowledge with us. As you have said yourself, no one has a crystal ball and it's next to impossible to predict precise dates for market events. But we have the past and present to go by and that's where men with your experience and insight can help others to spot the trends and probabilities.
Just so you know that many of us truly appreciate your time and effort sharing your experience with us. Also I commend you on your ability to ignore some of the trivial remarks from those that serve only to detract from this site.

Thank you again!!!

Tom M. ( Lurker )

That's why I enjoy your links to articles from
war-torn countries so much. Because they
impact tremendously on the U.S. markets. War
has been going on somewhere in the world since
time immemorial, and, sure enough, the market
has been crashing ( well, on Kitco, at least )
since time immemorial. This is not like 1929.
Please do not insult intelligent people on this
site by saying that this market is like 1929.
Use your head instead of your knee.

Another winsome post in support of George's style,
if not his substance.

We luv ya, George. Keep posting and keep telling
us that things are going to turn around someday.
Sure as shootin that kind of comforting motherly
advice is going to come true sooner or later.
Just hope we're still alive to share in your glory.

Thanks Nick@Aussie

Just back from the pub, saw the post.... but ochh the charts dunit wanna open captain.

ANOTHER: I now understand some of what you have been saying. It is not that gold is being sold for oil, but that the price of gold was to be kept artificially low so that gold could be purchased by the big oil producers in the Mideast. In this manner the Western central banks would not need to sell their own gold.
The wild card was that the Asian party ( parties ) tried to do the same thing. Now there are two problems:
1 ) the big middle Eastern oil producers may not have purchased all the gold they desire, and
2 ) non-central bank gold available for purchase is drying up!
The western central banks now have a difficult choice - either start selling their own gold, or watch the price of gold and oil rise!
I find it very interesting that there was a surge in oil prices beginning Jan 1996, which peaked Dec 96. At the same time oil began to rally, gold prices dropped! In other words, the gold sales may not have been to push the US dollar up ( oil priced in dollars ) , but to push the price of gold down so that the mideastern oil producers could buy gold.

What puzzles me is that traders at the LBMA knew about this. Wouldn't this mean that the gold producers would also find out? If so, why did so many sell their gold forward as long as ten years? Is that what ABX did? I would expect Peter Monk would only sell forward as much as necessary.

To tempest in a Teapot:

Are you free basin crack from your teapot?

You're definitely a CRACKPOT!

By all means- let's STOP affirmative action programs!!!!!!

Donald: I have the Oil/gold ratio now from 83-97. Looks like you already got the graphical material from DJ. What I found interesting I posted to ANOTHER ( see below ) . The drop in gold beginning Jan 96 could well have been as ANOTHER says, not to raise the dollar, but to make gold easier to purchase buy certain oil producers. The rise in the dollar may have been secondary to this. Of course, this is not the entire story since we have had a market rally as well, but it is interesting to observe that the rally on oil prices fizzed around the beginning of 1997. I don't recall what the official reason was for this. What a weekend -- despite the noise!

TO: TW - I'll take on your post of 17:42 - The price of gold will be moving up in the next few days and weeks. I expect to see it at around $400.00 US by the middle of February, if it takes that long.

Secondly pal, the political nonsense you refer to is the life blood of any discussion regarding the metals. I can post several thousand pages of dialog wherein it is impossible to seperate political policy or lack thereof and the metals.

The current financial battles raging currently are between several differing viewpoints and the prize for first place like the Olympics is the GOLD.

There will be no silver and bronze in this event I can assure you.

First "BT" and with interpretation from GSC and now "Another" and if we keep going maybe the next one to be Peutz to all will be "Without" ( which our beloved investment stand relates very well to no offense just a little joke )

Way to go ( LOSER ) - you're just the kind of IDIOT I was talking about. Thanks for your predictable post to underscore my point that some with trivial remarks such as yourself are but a detraction from this fine site.

I think we're already doing that in California
and other states, yes?


There are more drug-taking white people
in this country than any other race.
There are more poor white people in this
country than any other race.

Hope you're not replaced on the assembly
line by a turnip.

Predicting a precise date!
Re: comments about when the global financial bubble will pop.There is an irrevocable date when this will have happened. December 31/1999.Midnight.
This is a world wide Tsumai!
Check out these sites.
http://www.yourdon.com/books/fallback/fallbackhome.html
chapters 5 and 10.
also:
http://www.garynorth.com
803 days to go!!

Could you post thousands of pages of dialog to this site?
It couldn't be any more boring than wading through
G S Cole and Donald's blather every day.

FWIW--Speaking only for myself, this forum is still compelling and fascinating, even during those "disruptive" times. Yes, I would like see Kitco get back to a more Gold oriented discussion, and fewer pi**ing contests. I can't point fingers though, having participated in one or two myself. The point is, this is Bart's place to do with as he sees fit. This is a forum I stumbled upon last March and have been hooked ever since. If such a time comes that it is no longer enjoyable for me, then that is MY problem, not Bart's or other Kitcoites. I will quietly leave and try not to let the door hit me in the a**. In the meantime, there is high drama unfolding in the real world, and we are all watching it together from this site. I don't plan on giving up my front row seat here any time soon.

Ahhh Sorry I now see the 14:52 of mister Nick

No - that's the MAVERICK that CALLS BULL when I hear it from the likes of racist like yourself. This is a site for gold investors not a socialist gathering discussing your agenda for Eubonics and Lewis ( racist ) Farakom politics. Get a life moron and at YOUR OWN expense!

Could you define LOSER?

I gather that someone who actually
follows G S Cole's advice is in
your book a WINNER.

Here, let me set it up for you:


P1: People who listen to G S Cole are WINNERS
P2: A WINNER is someone who lost money on gold
this year.

Therefore, people who listen to G S Cole lost
money on gold so far this year.

You can see, Tommy, that I'm glad to be a LOSER in your book.

You don't have to bother George with this one! Buying opportunities have occured on the big dips since March and the little dips since the first week of July! The key word here is ACCUMULATION, for the long term buyer.

Why don't you go to a library and pick
up a few remedial spelling books.
If that's too much of a bother, I'm
sure some of my "kind" could help you
further your education if you so desire.

JTF: I printed out the DJ-Nick chart and have it right in front of me. The stability of oil prices in gold at .050 ounces per barrel jumps right out on this chart, and back to after the Yom Kippur ( 1974 ) war using the information I posted earlier. That does not strike me as sinister, quite the contrary, if OPEC or Saudia Arabia were looking for higher prices this chart says they have a 25 year failure. The so-called oil weapon has mis-fired.

It is not in the best interests of any oil producer to see their customers enter a depression. Reduction in demand is reduction in revenue whether used for consumption or savings in the form of gold. However, worldwide deflation does offer the opportunity for those with assets to purchase distressed properties at bargin prices. My reading of the economies of the oil producing world tells me that they are not flush with cash and able to pull off a stunt like that. In particular, Saudia Arabia seems to be short of funds needed to bring up standards of living for the ordinary citizenry. No question the royal family is doing ok. Let me look for some insights on that.

As always, the question is how best to use this new insight for the future.

For the long-term buyer, opportunities have
occurred since 1981. But let's not delude
ourselves. Let's talk about a reasonable
chance to make some of our investment back
IN OUR LIFETIMES.

HERR ALLEN--Like what you said at the end of your 17:16 post! I, too, realize what suffering and pain are in store for the majority of Americans and Canadians should the paper bubble implode as I and others envision! Why do you think I post anything here at all!! I CARE!! And other do too! But what possible good will it do if I and others here at Kitco in warning others about the suffering and pain to come don't take our own medicine and don't take the necessary steps now to avoid the disaster we see coming? Will the world be any better off if we get consumed by the conflagration to come? I personally hope that I and many others here at Kitco will be in a position after the conflagration to help our friends and neighbors! If not, at least we will be less likely to be part of the problem during the period of currency reconstruction alluded to this afternoon by ANOTHER! Wiedersehen, mein Freund!

223 - you are absolutely right. Accumulate and then add some more. And keep doing it with both hands, when your hands get tired, use a shovel.. Gold may not be this cheap for years to come.

Oh, lest I forget to add this. Any gold yiou can buy with the Reserves funny money at this point in history is a steal in my book.

Bob: I nominate YOU as candidate for Story Teller of the Year. My rationale is based upon YOUR arguments in YOUR post of 16:19 TRYING to detract from ANOTHER's credibility. I submit these same spurious arguments be applied to YOUR statements in YOUR 16:56 posting:

- Who are you?
- Where are you coming from?
- Why are you granting us the benefits of your wisdom?
- What is your profession or business background?
- Why should we believe your reasoning over that of ANOTHER?

Cheers Mr. Cheers

Date: Sun Oct 19 1997 13:19 Nick ( @Aussie ) ID#386276:
NO, it wasn't me that posted the phone numbers for the Perth Mint.
Sorry. & I didn't cut & paste them either......

Thanks George Cole for your reply. Appreciated. Dow will either crash or
pick up somewhat this week. Before the continuation of the long term
downward whipsaw. Suck them in on the Dips. Am more interested in
finding a bottom in the Asian marktet etc.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/14/y0023_z00_43.html

You would have had to make some money in the past
( not from gold in the last 17 years ) or not have
thrown money away on foolish investments ( like
gold in the past 17 years ) . We may never see
gold this cheap again for years, we may never
see the Dow this cheap again for years, we may
never see plastic forks this cheap again for
years. The "we may never see" comments are
purely opinion and devoid of any substantive
meaning - they are nostalgia and nothing more.

TO: Golden Cheesehead. Your quote "I personally hope that I and many others here at Kitco will be in a position after the conflagration to help our friends and neighbors!"

I could not agree more. In fact I don't think anything I wrote today or anything else I have read here today makes more sense.

Hats off to you.

TO: OF COURSE - Please - speak and teach me what is proper. Lay it all out before me. Dazzle me with some highly cognitive perspicacity to which you allude through your constant diatribe.

Please, say something about the markets or gold, or plastic forks.

I am not trying to get your goat, no, rather I would like to hear what YOU think is about to occur.

EBN - Gold opened in Asian markets significantly lower
today, in sympathy with G S Cole's desire to buy gold since
apparently he didn't buy any when he was telling everyone
else to buy it.

Much as it has for the past 20,000 years.
How many times has the world ended in those
20,000 years? What make you so damn special
that it's going to end in your lifetime
or just because you'd like it to happen?

Donald: I will need to think about what you said. As I recall, it is true that the middle east no longer controls the oil market as they did in the 70's. However, they still have enough clout to push prices up. Saudi Arabia has problems at home, so they may have been reluctant to reduce production. The new Saudi leader may have a different policy.
If the oil producers are not flush with cash, and their economic advisors precdict an economic downturn coming -- possibly with turmoil in the dollar -- they might want to buy all the gold they can, rather than be stuck with dollars! What would you do?
By the way -- you have e-mail!

Usually when someone intelligent has been exposed,
the fess up to it. It is painfully obvious that
you are Another. I don't see how this hurts you
much to admit it, especially since no one knows
who JTF is.

What happened to my post
RealNetworks and Netscape Communications have jointly developed the Real
Time Streaming Protocol ( RTSP ) to address the needs for efficient delivery of
streamed multimedia over IP networks. RTSP provides an extensible framework to
enable controlled delivery of real-time data, such as audio and video. Sources of
data can include both live data feeds, such live audio and video, and stored
content, such as pre-recorded events. It is designed to work with established
protocols such as RTP, HTTP, and others to provide a complete solution for
streaming media over the Internet.

RTSP provides the following specific benefits to Internet content providers and
users:

Bidirectionality enabling full stream control
High reliability over current net infrastructure
Low overhead data delivery
Ready to fully exploit of emerging technologies and protocols ( e.g. IP
Multicast, RTP etc. )
Security
Intellectual property rights protection
Scalability
The design is based on field-proven techniques

By being implemented across multiple operating system platforms, on both client
and server ( Mac, Windows 95/NT, Windows 3.1 for client; Mac Windows NT, UNIX
variants on server ) , RTSP will allow the greatest choice for vendors deploying
multimedia applications.

RTSP builds upon the best practice and experience of RealNetworks embodied by
RealAudio, the leading streaming multimedia platform and LiveMedia, Netscape's
Enterprise streaming multimedia solution. It is designed to minimize the overhead
of multimedia delivery and to take full advantage of Internet infrastructural
improvements, such as IP Multicast, as they become more widely available. Even
without these improvements, RTSP, when used with the RealAudio product line,
will offer significiant benefits in quality of service for users and overhead reduction
and management advantages for network providers.

RTSP has been submitted for consideration as an Internet standard to the Internet
Engineering Task Force as a proposed standard protocol for Internet multimedia
streaming in one-to-many applications. Through this process, RTSP will allow
interoperability between client-server multimedia products from multiple vendors.
Allowing client and server software from multiple vendors to interoperate will give
users more flexibility and choice. Through the IETF standards process we hope
that that RTSP will become the standard mechanism for delivering streaming
multimedia over the Internet.

RTSP works on top of the well-established RTP ( the Real Time Transport Protocol,
or IETF RFC 1889 ) to both control and deliver real-time content. By being built on
a foundation of these industry standards RTSP implementations will be able to
take advantage of improvements, such as the new standard for RTP header
compression, with no additional work by vendors.

RTSP is built on top of other Internet standard protocols, including: UDP, TCP/IP,
SCP and IP Multicast. The RTSP protocol initiative has received wide support from
the acknowledged leaders in computer networking and systems, including: 3Com,
Apple Computer, Autodesk/Kinetix, Cisco Systems, Hewlett Packard, IBM,
Silicon Graphics, Sun Microsystems, Macromedia, Narrative Communications,
Precept Software and Voxware.

Glossary:

RTP ( Real Time Transport Protocol ) ( RFC 1889 )
Provides lower-level transport for delivery of multimedia data. RTP is gaining
support in routers and other infrastructure devices.

RTSP ( Real Time Streaming Protocol ) ( New Draft Proposal )
Provides control mechanisms and takes care of high-level issues, such as
session establishment and licensing issues. Also smoothes transition from
unicast model to multicasting with RTP.

I have some electrical contacts made from copper with a 1 micron surface
layer of gold. The gold is necessary only on parts of the contacts, but
from simplicity of manufacturing reasons, we don't do any masking, and the
whole contact is covered.

The application is an optical instrument, and in order to reduce optical
reflections, we want to apply a black colour to the contacts. We have
tried black paint, but small parts of paint falls of easily and contaminate
the instrument.

The simplest would be to blacken the whole contact. Then we don't have to
mask the contacts.

My questions are:
1 Does anyone know of a process for blackening gold?

2 Does this black top layer conduct electricity well/poor/not at all?

3 Is there a process for blackening copper which conduct electricity just
as well or almost as well as a gold layer?
( Then we could apply the black layer only and avoid gold )

George Cole: I just saw your 14:40 post. Someone did say that Saudi Arabia has much of their assets in US stocks. If so they do indeed have much to risk if the market goes sour. Low cost gold would be good insurance, wouldn't it. And, if the dollar is stong, it would better handle dollar sales by foreign investors. The cheaper the gold the better!
What do you make of the fact that gold went down within a month of the Jan 96 oil rally?
I for one would like to know of an explanation different from that of ANOTHER's.
The background noise is way up today, but I think what has happened today is leading to new understanding for all those are willing to listen. The relationships between oil/gold/USdollar are fundamental, and need to be understood, whatever the truth may be.

Subject: Re: sources for 14kt gold thread
From: "TigerEye"



HI ya'll,

Maybe she just has the CAPS option on. There is one with my browser that
asked if I wanted my posts to be done with all caps. It was originally
checked when I first installed my browers soooo if I had not gone in and
changed it mine would have been done the same way : (

I have not seen the 14kt gold thread by Krienik. Sounds like I could use
some of it. Please tell me about the cost though. I might have to wait
until after the holidays to order some.

Thanks : ) TigerEye purr purr



I think this person was asking if we knew of any place to bypass
Kreinick, not that s/he was trying to sell us anything. I don't
understand, however, why you would want to bypass Kreinick--they are
one of the best out there. Well, except for the price, but I pay top
dollar for my supplies.

And for the shouting--just so you know;

All caps is SHOUTING or MAKING A POINT IN A LOUD WAY. Asking a
question such as the one below should have been done in caps and small
letters.


HI -- ANY IDEAS ABOUT BYPASSING KREINIK INDUSTRIES 14KT GOLD THREAD
AND
GETTING SOME IMPORTED GOLD THREAD FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE???? ANY
COMPANY/WHOLESALE NAMES???

SINCERELY,
"Obstinate"

First of all, stop yelling at us. Secondly it is against our charter for
you
to sell on this ng.


Anne Christopherson

"Old roses are full of instructions on how to live right."

O.k. a comment: If one is unfamiliar with asset allocation strategies there is much written on the subject. Basically, the secret is to not keep all the eggs in one basket. During HUGE buying opportunities, I do shift from my basic strategy of 30% growth stocks, 30% income stocks, 30% bonds and 5% metals stocks and 5% metals. This is one of those times. This is no different than the last time Chrysler hit bottom then started an accumulation phase, or Boeing or Microsoft. But this time it is gold. You know there are money managers who tout the same principle. My wife got some USAA Cornerstone Fund some time ago and is quite happy with it as it allows her to not worry about trying to read the market.

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To add a file to your comments, first send the file to us.
Then specify the full filename here: ( eg:info123.doc, gold12.gif, speech7.wav, etc... )
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http://www.demon.co.uk/keganpaul/features/saudi_arabia_iran_not.html

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Tolerant1 18:36 post: Grab the shovels, boys! It's raining cheap gold! ; )

DJ: Finally saw your post to everyone on Gold/oil,etc from Nick ( @Canberra ) 's data. Could have saved myself alot of work had I seen this first. This is semi-log, I presume.
What software package did you use? I currently use Windows on Wallstreet because of its nice graphics. I do also have Quattro, but it is not easy to use on Equities, and testing of any buy/sell points is impossible ( for me at least ) .

Someone please yell me what a liberterianism really is.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/19/y0014_y00_1.html

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/101997/world24_3381.html

Another: Thanks for your reply! About how much longer do you think the CBs will be able to hold the yellow down?

Bullion down 20 cents in early Asian trading; S & P futures up modestly.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/18/z0000_3.html

Typhoons Ivan and Joan http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/101997/world24_3881.html

The 19:50 URL is incorrect. The 19:56 URL is the correct link for Typhoons Ivan and Joan

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/101997/world11_413.html

ANOTHER -- During this enemy artillery fire on Kitco Hill, I'm sticking
my head out of my foxhole to ask a quick, quick question. When will the
central banks have to start BUYING instead of SELLING and LENDING??

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/19/z0009_4.html

S.America unimpressed with salesman Bill Clinton
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/101997/world30_26275.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/10/17/international_news/indonesia_4.html

Okubyomono ka busho ka......toki ga tsutaeru

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle811.html

What is your duty... your obligation?

LELAND: in light of your military analogy, is it not strange that a mysterious poster ( Another ) brings up thoughts that lead to some serious questions, and possibly important revelations, and there is suddenly a dramatic increase of anonymous, faceless, nameless, handle-less, civility-less distraction and disruption. At first glance moronic and childish...but could there be more sinister doings afoot? ( or a thigh! )

smoke signals drifting down yer way.......this could have a profound effect on GOLD....read @ once----urgent........EB: how could you root against Bip????? how could you....

AT THE CROSS-ROADS:
For students/investors/traders, interested in technical chart-timing concepts for gold and silver markets, I recommend your focus on...
.. a few of the following chart patterns/contrasts.

#1. The 7/9/18 wk 'rate-of-change' chart patterns, vs the weekly price
of gold; reveal the bullish divergences, and buying pressure, that
have been building, since January, 1997. These bullish divergence pressures, apply to gold & silver: .... to mining shares, the metals themselves, futures/options, coins/bullion.
Current charts of the weekly gold price with 7/9 wk. roc ( -rate-of-change ) , are available at Mr. Ron Jett's URL:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Floor/3046/

#2. A comparison of Dec. Gold futures prices, with the XAU index, reveals the bullish divergence/"dis-harmony" between these two chart patterns....since the early July lows, and the Sept. lows, and the current "lows"...not confirmed -- but bullishly 'refuted'...
( -so to speak ) ... by the reverse head-&-shoulders pattern of the XAU....already completed. And, as the XAU "NOW" turns eagerly back up--up, to the up-side.... so too, will the metals themselves.

#3. A longer-term perspective of the weekly gold price, from the
'92/'93 lows to the current new/lower lows; VS the XAU lows ...
of 92/93 compared to the current period .... reveal how:
the XAU -- now at the 90 to 110 range....is far ahead,
of where it was at its 92/93 lows...of 65 to 75.
And yet GOLD, has been trading below 325 in the current period ...including the last quarter or two.
Gold's curent prices are in contrast to its 92/93 lows --
where it barely touched down - to these $325/oz. levels.

This is a once in a life-time buying opportunity.

Sincerely,
David Blair Macrory, C.T.A.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/17/z0009_42.html

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/101997/biz29_9286.html

Kitco is under seige
The concerted effort has begun
to eliminate all semblance of intelligent life at Kitco.
Disruption and diversion will reign.
Insult will precede injury.
RJ did not leave of his own accord. His "last post" was not by his own hand. But it was at his own computer. Just after he was stuffed into a large trunk and shipped to Indonesia. This will be lost on those at the receiving end, but the warning is now in the hands of Kitcoites. Do not sneer at those who advocate arms. Arm yourself and take turns at night with another of like mind. For they are coming for you, as they did for RJ. They know now that Kitcoites know too much. The fools and knaves who occasionally surface here are safe. They care about nothing save their own empty amusement and the degradation of their mental and moral betters. The new philistines at Kitco, the nameless, handle-less, faceless, are cyber commandos who are here to distrupt and disintegrate. We have come too close to the truth.
The war has begun. If there is any hope of protecting yourself in cyberspace, you must identify me.
Then we will see that Kitcoites have it in their power to root out these evildoers one by one. And that Bart is beside us and effective in this regard. Otherwise the end is near.
Who am I?

David: Your opinion of profit potential now in Gold Stocks vs. physical Gold? Thanks.

Allen ( USA ) Liked your post to another, and the plea for a focus on human values, not just gold. I think we all have to be careful in this area, not to be blinded by the "yellow" so to speak. If I think any of my assocates is listening, I recommend that they be careful in the market, and purchase some gold ( or its equivalent ) . Only two out of many respond at all. It's like Linus Pauling talking about VitC -- he was ridiculed for years. How about Stanley Pruisner? He was ridiculed for years also, but now he just got the Nobel Prize. Noone will listen until they are ready to listen. We must have patience, I'm afraid.
What is your take on the fact that gold went down, just as oil went up, early around Jan 1996? Back in 1993, during the gold rally, oil went up a year later. This rally could be predicted based on the recovery of the US economy. I don't recall why oil went up Jan 1996 -- must have been a reason given. I guess the conventional answer would be that the drop in gold preceeded the deflationary drop in oil -- but cause and effect may not be that simple. For example, why is there a gold rally in the Swiis frank since 1995 if this is so? Perhaps there is some truth to ANOTHER's statements, though the comments about 1/3 of oil purchases being gold were clearly erroneous, and the idea that gold was "priced" at 1000/oz to reduce the need for gold sales in return for oil is preposterous! Today's comments were much better thought out, the idea of pushing gold down in order to allow Middle Easterners to buy gold cheaply from non-central bank sources. The posts are now more frequent. I think ANOTHER knows that we will not be influenced by the voice of one, and yet he persists! How much of this is truth? Of course, what really matters to us is the when, and how much. If he is right, the dollar may be in for a sharp fall, and it will probably look like it was precipated by something else anyway. I was watching the dollar anyway. I think the person who can unravel this needs three post graduate degrees in intrigue and disinformation technique!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/19/y0004_y00_1.html

Roar: There is as much diversity of opinion among libertarians as among members of any political party. But the consensus amongst libertarians is, I think, that individual liberties should be maximized ( i.e., govt should recognize as many rights and freedoms as practical, not just those listed in the Bill of Rights ) , and government intrusion into the lives of people should be minimized. Of course, this includes, for many libertarians, a drastic overhaul of our tax laws. You can read a little about the American Libertarian Party's philosophy at http://www.lp.org .

John: You are John.
You are bored.
You are boring.

MIKE -- Where we use "military" to describe our thinking, maybe we
we're in another war this time. Could it be a "gold war"?

OK, here we are, 3 bloody days for stocks in a row in the anniversary of the 1987 crash. Now then, a consensus, will tomorrow be a bloodbath or what? And if it is, will this necessarily drive Gold & Silver higher, or will we see a pattern where they can also fall as they have before during falling equities?

Now as to the attack on Kitco by HepCat or his clones, I say ignore them and they go away. Registration is a stupid idea that will only serve to convert this site to a small fraternity elitist club where open ideas & opnions are discouraged. The general public who comes across this site may get involved and have valuable input if they aren't discouraged by registration.

Hepcat, don't you have ANY thing to do with your life?

Hashimoto-san: Okubyomono ka busho ka....toki ga tsutaeru??????????

DONALD,

MORNING to you!Just read this from the scmp: http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971020013149062?=fp&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=436
More problems to the sawatdeekarp country.....looked liked the asian stocks will fell after friday's action from dow jones...
happy trading...

leland----

you'll see the cb's begin to buy ( openly )
when the worm rears his ugly head in the
form of panic buying during the huge stock
decline that is fixing to occur. a flight to
historical havens definitely includes gold
in the 1st position! there is a current of fear
amongst the entire paper-for-lunch-bunch. from
the small time investor to the wall street mavens,
they are all looking over their shoulders. we know
it, they know it, and chaos and flux know it. the
hand will be dealt some rainy night, when all are
asleep. the the day will break harsh...for the worm
has indeed turned....

in the recent big drops, gold has spiked...wait for a HUGE
stock sell-off, the big spike will not be a fleeting thing....

a drop on monday equaling the drop in '87 would cause
a loss in todays $ equal to 1.7 trillion. this loss
would be spread across the land-scape of america. the
retirement and college funds tied to the paper-tiger
will be devastated. the funds not tied the big-funds
are few and far between....hey, to really perform @22%
or better, you HAVE to play with paper...right? there
will be no doubt to investors that paper has had its run
into the sun. other safe vehicles will be sought....gold
and silver will lead the way for panic stricken investors
with TRILLIONS to invest some-where! i'll personally have
at least 1000oz of gold in the form of options to help these
poor souls in procuring as much as they can afford!! 5 to 10k
per oz will be fair for all concerned. a squeeze is in the making,
hope all have some type of pm vehicle....it'll make stories
worth telling for a life-time.....and create wealth, un-heard-of.....
for gold-bugs!; )

cherokee--wandering-amongst-the-stars--looking backward, to see forward

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/17/y0004_z00_12.html

Been gone to Tahoe and just read back 3 days. Looks like the "Full Moon" folks were wrong. There's more mischief here than ever well PAST the full moon.

I see you're going to take your ball and go home. Oh how I'll miss your enormous ego. Your self inflated importance and insider info. and contacts and charts about Platinum vs. Drachma's or whatever.

Now as to the India thing, you say this affects you directly because you won't have a Maple Leaf market for your Indian clients. I thought you told me you just sold coins as a public service and made no money on them because you're such a big player with your high rolling clientele? And that your posts here hawking Gold & Platinum coins were not to make money or attract business? ( Though one of them specifically said you were trying to roust up business ) .

Yes, I know this post violates my own self imposed attempt to be more civil to others but in your case, I can only add "amen" to the poster who said "Live by the Sword, die by the sword".

I read everyone here ( with an obvious exception ) and I think you contributed important info. to the site, however, I for one sure won't miss your "Legend in his own mind" posts.

RJ, I have found that many of your posts are more on topic, and more informative re Gold Pltinum & Silver than most, but I still say, "Don't let the door...."

Here is an interesting story. Hollywood Left may lead efforts of protest against China state visit. http://www.drudgereport.com/1.htm

CHEROKEE -- Keep it up!!! I'm making a list, Kitco Golden Distinguished Service Awards. You're on it! Clusters will be added
for meritorious contributions. Better get your class A "whites", "blues"
or "browns" to the cleaners before the awards ceremony.

october, historically speaking, has been
the month for traumatic events relative to
stocks...

look back to see forward......

we have less than 2 weeks before the GREAT crash
of '97 is upon us. it just came to me...incredible..
back, forward....history has shown what when
to expect the next crash....move over grass-hopper...

happy-halloween------the joker is come-a-callin, and
he has a pair of banshees named chaos and flux who
have hungered for well-nigh-upon 68 years....they will
feast upon the flesh of the paper-tiger before the
next full moon, as it has been before, it will be again--cherokee-ism

damn---pre-cognizance in public! thwock!! self-inflicted arrow wound.

the limb is bending, and gold calls are sending-- smoke-signals, that time is short and calls will never be cheaper than now....

cherokee!; ) hammer-to-the-anvil, grist-to-the-mill-----NOW
dotssmfatimm

After reading all of today's posts, I 'd like to add a few comments:

1. After following the gold market for about 30 years, I found very little correlation ( good enough to invest on ) between oil and gold. There were too many examples in history when they move in different directions.

2. AJT..09:50.. According to your post on the national debt, the total debt has doubled ( 1988- 2.6 trillion to 1997- 5.4 tr ) since Reagan left. I thought he was the problem. Apparently not.

3. Today's paper had several interviews with major investors/brokers who lived through the crash of '87. Every one concluded that the best way to benefit from another similar 'crash' would be to buy, buy, buy. Some even said it proved that the 'buy and hold' strategy was the best method. These are the heart and soul of the investment establishment and gives an excellent indication of what most of them will do when the Dow declines 10% or more. The major point being overlooked is that when the market craters, it won't resemble '87 at all. More like '29, which sucked in new investors like an undertow.

4. TED.. 08:30.. After reading your jokes about Slick and Mrs Slick, I was really disgusted at your degrading of our leaders for at least 1 second after I stopped laughing.

Soooo George all this time that you have been proclaiming the Gold Bull to be here, and the enormous upside that will occur, you having been holding a small position in Gold Stocks and indeed hoping for Gold to continue to get whacked. George you have lost a lot of credibility with that post!!!!

Larryn: Your last was a breath of fresh air man.... keep it coming.

Glad you weren't offended.....who could be???

Cherokee: Re. 20:57

Please tell me how you distinguish a worm's head from its tail!

David: Re. your 20:21, Item No. 3.

92/93 xau:au gold ratio vs. today should be adjusted for substantial changes in individual component mining companies and their net worth.
For instance, ABX absorbed Lac Minerals a few years ago and is a much larger company than 92/93. Also, Santa Fe Pacific no longer exists as it was absorbed by NEM recently. This might account for some of the current difference vs 92/93.

wrong-number@2030

cowards hide behind anonymous phone calls and
ditto for anon-posters....weine-wacker....

shoot from the hip, aim for its' lip----

yes, you look just fine with-out lips!

next time....

sig--

osmosis is the key
osmosommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm------mmmmmmmmmmmm--
sorry, got carried away------------ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm--

I Can't seem to get int'l market quotes tonight. Can someone post how the Nikkei and Hang Seng are doing tonight. Thanks.

Hang Sang Down 298.43 or 2.19% Nikkei down 24.47 or 0.14%

All: Plots,graphs,statistics,heated arguments,conflicting
viewpoints,jolly joking,the web at its best.BOO,October 31st-
January 1st.Duck and cover.Your friend Meph.Nite all.

Just seeing if I was alive. Buy S&P puts,the CB's are on top of AU.
Click your heels 3 times and wish HEP,LGB, et al will see the dark side.
Your fiend, Meph.

Just seeing if I was alive. Buy S&P puts,the CB's are on top of AU.
Click your heels 3 times and wish HEP,LGB, et al will see the dark side.
Your fiend, Meph.

Thanks Peter.

You people are really crazy why do you attack my cogent views. To hell with Gsc and Peutz great analysts but their predictions are off base.

Hong Kong down 393.82 ( 2.90% ) ....Taiwan down ( 2.72% ) ....Dec. gold down .70

Tolerant 1 is intolerant of others views.

Hepcat Yes Others No

I love you man!!!

Who should I ask for investment advice George S. Cole or Steve Peutz or Vronsky or Hepcat. Thanks and comments are appreciated.

No one over the Internet. Find a Broker! :- )

Who is more right yee or thee? GSC Peutz and Co.

Mr. Cole,
The Central Banks could hold gold down
for some time, even with massive buying.
Watch oil! If it rises much and gold isnt
sold off then the game is over.

A reprint from an earlier post:

The Deal:
We ( an oil state ) now value gold in trade
far higher than currencies. We are willing to use gold
as a partial payment for the future use of all oil and value
it at $1,000 US. ( only a small amount of oil is in this deal )
And take a very small amount of gold out of circulation each
month using its present commodity price.
If the world price can be maintained in the $300s
it would be a small price for the west to pay for
cheap oil and monetary stability.

The battle is now between CBs trying to keep
gold in the $300s and the others buying it up.
In effect the governments are selling gold in any
form to KEEP IT being used as REAL MONEY
in oil deals! Some people know this, that is why
they arent trading it,, they are buying it.

Not all oil producers can take advantage of this
deal as it is done where noone can see. And, they
know not what has happened for gold does not
change in price! But I tell you, gold has been
moved and its price has changed in terms of oil!
For the monthly amount to be taken off the market
has changed from $10 in gold ( valued at $1,000 )
/per barrel to the current $30 in gold /per barrel still valued at $1,000!
Much of this gold was in the form of deals in
London to launder its movement.
Because of some Asians, these deals are
no longer being rolled over as paper!

Hong Kong down 500+

Moral values have now eroded to the lowest level ever seen before. I personally have recently encountered several disturbing instants of values and minds in the sewer. I mean deep down in the sewer even on public radio and are minds are being fed with this garbage. I'm sure I'm not alone. One must stop and ask yourself where can we be headed. History tells us we are pointed in the direction of nothing short of catastrophe. A toilet flush is coming and it will be a natural process. We all need a cleansing and it won't be too soon. The great depression was almost 70 years ago and now we must go it again to refresh are minds of what it is really like to suffer. I firmly believe after what I have seen this is what is coming. Time is getting shorter and shorter so I will hold gold till I fold. Gold has been called a big loser investment for years now. I think golds day has arrived because there are so many nonbelievers as most already sold and lost by now. Think about it people have given up on gold. I recently asked others if they would invest in gold. No interest at all. In fact they think your mad. The window of opportunity is here now.

Most investors have gains they need to offset. Advertising this sight as a tax shelter if people act on the advice here could be worth charging a fee for. The arguments for a bad investments are both persuasive and intelligent. This is just what investors need to make
the final decision to offset gains. Links to other precious metals sites or newsletters can only further alleviate the capital gains problem. Uncle Sam watch out.

Bart-Seems that trouble is always on the horizon .Let it go!Everything always finds its TIME Of JUSTICE.Happy Trails

burp********

How many retailers etc have refused your worthless paper dollars lately which are now sought by everyone in the world. Take a prozac or some mind altering drug ( you need it ) and save yourself alot of money. It does not matter unfortunately, in this existance.

LOUIE! Why are you here if you have no interest in Gold?

Well fellow long term posters.........it appears the stress of the last
fews days of bubble bursting has unglued the lurkers into a rant of
notable porportions.Tis unfortunate they are unable to contain their
emotions in such trying times.Seems all the drunks who didn't want to
leave the party have decided to visit and carry on their drunken maddness
at the expense of those who were suggesting they not drink too much.Hope
they don't plan on driving home.Then again,a little sobering thought may
well be what they were looking for,but in retrospect,were unwilling or
unable to fathom it in the first place.

Major cash position..listening again for the distant rumble of a bottom
in gold as the excrement hits the rotating blades on the DOW by 10 to 20%

GO GOLD!

LOUIE! "It does not matter unfortunately, in this existance." This is really heavy stuff!

will try and make this as mysterious as possible

Read my 23:13 suggestion to save money for investors. I will recommend this site on my next show as a way to investigating different methods of offseting any gains from the financial markets. In a sense, now we can say the investment advice to invest in gold stocks at least makes sense in its immediate potential for tax savings before the end of the tax year. The tax savings gain offsetting strategy may even make sense into 1998 if current trends continue which they more than likely will given the non-inflationary massive job growth.

Read my 23:13 suggestion to save money for investors. I will recommend this site on my next show as a way to investigating different methods of offseting any gains from the financial markets. In a sense, now we can say the investment advice to invest in gold stocks at least makes sense in its immediate potential for tax savings before the end of the tax year. The tax savings gain offsetting strategy may even make sense into 1998 if current trends continue which they more than likely will given the non-inflationary massive job growth.

Go Flag!!!

The Major: You are right. I agree, I wonder what their interest or motive really is for posting in the first place? Enough of this. Their postings are worth as much as the "Paper" they worship. Big Day tomorrow.
Go Gold!

Updated Asian Markets: http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Gold and silver are up in Tokyo the pgms are down