Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:04 - ID#386276)
I'm not here to make enemies but to learn from people who have good ideas. Thanks for the comment on charts. I can't do horoscopes but love to play with charts. I only have OZ stocks database plus a few O/S charts that I follow. But if you'd like a chart done - not a problem.

That indicator is one of my favourite ones. It is made from a set of expotential moving averages. The waves have been created from a series of fibronacci numbers. It tends to show support/resistance with breakouts the best.
I'll go and rustle one up for gold to give you an eyeball.
Also the Morgan Stanley Global Index chart looks good now too.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:11 - ID#57232)
@Home Goodnight down_under!
Goodnight to our Kitco friends down under. Your part of the Kitco world seems to have less dissention, and more useful input per post than here in up over.
And -- a good night hello to Aurator! So you found out about the Universe on Orion's belt! I prefer your classical stories about Orion regardless, but I thought you might get a kick out of the movie! Did you know that men indistinguishable from "the men in black" follow our president whereever he goes? Haven't seen any unusual flashing instruments, though. Gee - do you think that's why he can't remember what's on those video tapes?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:12 - ID#401460)
It is interesting
Janet Reno is starting to fight back. Could it be she has had enough of this shell game?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:15 - ID#386276)
Gold chart
The next turnup of the red line and the strength of it should show the colour of the bull

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:17 - ID#401460)
Big Guys Coming Out
I have noticed over the years that when the situation really gets worrisome the heavies come out to speak, warn, calm, suggest , guide, lead, etc. THEY are totally non partisan all THEY care about is preserving their interest - their survival. Thank God that their survival usually depends on the overall survival of society as a whole.
Notice how Pres. Carter has stepped forward and called for an independent counsel and it was Kissinger that warned of the dangers of the Chinese visit - that the administration was ill prepared for such a visit. Korbachev has also resurfaced today. I am sure there were others that I have missed.

The situation must be getting out of control or to put it ANOTHER way the situation needs to be kept or brought back under control. The President has major problems now, with the evidence mounting against him, could it be his administration has finally lost control?

I sold all equities today, kept for the long haul, natural resources and Gold.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:20 - ID#227238)
Roar: "We need a program of National Health Care and free education and at least a guaranteed govt level of housing and food for the women, minorities, children, disabled and others that may have been economically unfortunate. Democracy is lost without these guarantees."

Oh? In the 200 year history of this noble democratic experiment, please cite your evidence that such democracy is indeed "lost without these guarantees". Conversely, we might possibly conclude that as a nation of immigrants, this country has been built and maintained by poorly educated
men and women who landed here without any guarantees whatsoever; beyond the promise that they could build their fortunes without interference from govt or man.

Further, please cite your evidence from the public record that any of the programs of the nature that you advocate have done anything but further enmesh the impoverished into a web of broken dreams that cannot be realized by anyone except themselves. Learning, you see, is a volitional activity. No one can be forced to think if they choose not to do so.

An ability to take advantage of 'programs and resources' requires a certain amount of ratiocination. A strong personal desire to make certain decisions regarding personal behavior. Not the least of which is the deferral of immediate gratification of personal desires in order to achieve long term goals. Again, a not inconsiderable item requiring both thought and personal discipline.

Where are your advocates for programs of this nature???? Until you find them you doing little but engaging in a collusal swindle. Both intellectually and financially.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:23 - ID#57232)
@Home - eyes closing on me
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Couldn't resist one last post after seeing your fibonacci series exponential moving averages on the gold index. The Oz golds appear to be making a stronger comeback than the ?bear in the Dow!
Am I right that you use the fibonacci series to come up with your time intervals on your exponential moving averages? Has a fascinating strobe-like effect -- have you seen those stroboscopic stop motion images by Philip ( ? ) Ederington? ( I think I got the name right ) . Who said one could not combine art and investing?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:23 - ID#386276)
MSCI chart
Global World Index.
This chart is starting to show signs of preasure and looking to tank soon.
I think that the strength of US and Europe over the last duration has helped this index counter the effects of falling Asian markets.
Watch out when they all move together!

In my mind this index can sort of be judged as a sentiment indicator for the world. i.e. confidence/fear optimism/pessimism
As one can see it is soon to retrace, just as I expect gold to do.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:28 - ID#227238)
tolerant 1: "WHO IS MAURICE STRONG? " ..... Sounds like the antithesis of: "Who is John Galt". .... Is M. Strong self made or does he stand on dead man's legs like the Kennedy's?????

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:30 - ID#401460)
King Gates
Looks like the big guys are getting worried about Bill Gates. ABC Nightline Special on how he is taking control of the world.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:38 - ID#20135)
Great work Nick. A big thanks to you and the other chartists that posted over the weekend.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:38 - ID#431263)
Herr Highrise! Won't worry about Bill Gates till he buys out LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES and starts his bid for the White House!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:39 - ID#263259)
silver value
tolerant1 re 23:13 post: I'm glad to see a like minded person as regards silver pricing. Let me illustrate with a comment about land prices. In 1932 and again in 1951 prime agricultural bottom land was sold at auction for less than one ounce of silver per acre. The same land goes now for upwards of 600 ounces per acre. But even so, with lower production costs silver may well go down again. So I'm keeping an open mind about my long term dollar cost averaging strategy so as to not lose the house betting on it just before another dip. And for a wildcard, you've got to realize that for fabricated consumer items, the fabrication cost is much greater than the metal cost so even a doubling in metal price would mean relatively small percent increase in the total cost of such items.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:40 - ID#227238)
LGB: "I read everyone on the site to glean whatever new info I can learn ( with the obvious exceptions of the truly imbalanced such as "Friend of Kitco" , "HepCat", etc. ) . "

......... Now take some time to read yourself, for the content it might provide. There is a definite, non marginal difference between an occasional 'tweak' of someone elses personal opinion and a constant stream of "satirical" invective. It's often called belittling. The process could be termed overbearing..... and the difference is definitely not satire.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:49 - ID#227238)
Nick: Lookin' at yer chart at 00:15 with all them seismic lookin' squiggles, I'd be willin' ta bet that an oil guy would conclude that there is oil under that ground. ( grin thing ) ........... Seriously, what are you getting from all those exponential MAs?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 00:54 - ID#227238)
Nick: Do you have a longer term MSCI chart? Please post if you do.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 01:01 - ID#263259)
flameproof dwelling
Bart: I found an interesting faq which might give insight on how to deal with the trolls who come to mess with your newsgroup:

(Tue Oct 21 1997 01:09 - ID#401460)
Long live the Mac
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD ( @GOOD HEAVEN'S GATES! ) I agree, they say he is the richest man on EARTH! Wow, there are people who are not on the list, that can buy and sell Gates. And, if he does get to strong or steps out of line I would think they would react some how. However I am not so blind as to think that these slaps on the wrist are nothing more than a symbolic show for his competition. He sat with Hillary and AG at the 92 inaugaration. I felt than that he did own the WhiteHouse.
Good Night All

The Wichita Lineman
(Tue Oct 21 1997 01:14 - ID#374200)
is going to bed
JTF, Major, tolerant1, how do these kitcos do it, they post day and night without compensation, just hope for a golden future. Good night all.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 01:27 - ID#310407)
Earl re your 00:40. Thank you SO much for clarifying the non subtle distinction for me between satire and belittlement. You're almost as wise as the great, all knowing, all seeing, Omnipotent, Omniscient, Omnipresent ( in spite of his protestations to the contrary ) RJ. Please let me just feed from the table scraps that fall at your feet, and accept my chastisement like a man at the hand of such greatness. I hereby dub you "Earl the Magnificent"....Yawn......

(Tue Oct 21 1997 01:28 - ID#386276)
The series of lines show support/resistance levels.
You can see on the dow chart how that grey line has provided support on four occasions. When it breaches the blue line this parties over.

I only have the MSCI chart going back for 3 years as I have to create it from the paper.

You say oil under the gold thingee.

The series is 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144
Makes a pretty picture, hey. ( :- ) ) ) )

(Tue Oct 21 1997 01:40 - ID#215208)
Nick@Aussie - Like death and taxes, upgrades are inevitable. I protest in my own, totally ineffective way, by postponing it as long as possible. I'm sure King William will get his annual tithe before too long. I'm sure he lies awake at night thinking of ways to get it sooner. Hey, wait a minute, how do I know you are really from Australia?

Who Cares
(Tue Oct 21 1997 01:51 - ID#244209)
And the bank played on

And still no crash. _Nightline_ says that Microsoft is holding
$9B in cash. Cash.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 01:51 - ID#215208)
Well, I have to get up on east coast time, so time to sign off. man-yawn-a.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 01:55 - ID#252110)

223 - re your 01:01 posting.

What a wonderful web site. Learned something new today. should be required reading for all Kitcoites.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 02:21 - ID#20135)
Tuesday October 21 1:16 AM EDT

Reuters Business News Highlights:

"TOKYO - Tokyo stocks retained their gains on Tuesday afternoon following the announcement of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's
package to invigorate the economy.

Brokers said that the plans were pretty much within expectations and had little immediate impact on the market.

As of 0455 GMT, the Nikkei average was up 103.99 points or 0.60 percent at 17,398.50. Its December futures had added 50 points
to reach 17,390. "

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 2:03AM 17210.09 -84.42 -0.49%

Well, it seems they didn't much like the package after briefly looking it over. Asia is having deep troubles.

The Hang Seng is starting to look like it is in a free fall.

Hong Kong Hang Seng ^HSI 12:30AM 12555.87 -415.01 -3.20

Someone is definitely kidding themselves if they believe that it matters not how these Asian markets do. They are going to need their money and they are going to sell our bonds to get it.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 02:29 - ID#262175)
@ What's Wrong With This Picture?

One of the reasons given for the DOW being up today - Stonger earnings from a few companies including the following:

Headline in Reuters:

Lilly Profits Up Sharply, Prozac Sales Up

I think SOCIETY has a BIG problem. I think I will by some more gold.

Big Beaver
(Tue Oct 21 1997 02:33 - ID#262358)
@Beaver's Den
Well Boseman,

What can I a beaver say. You guessed it, "Take TWO PROZAC and call me in the morning! And by all means - buy some more GOLD.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 02:43 - ID#255151)

Too many cross currents in the US Bond market for me to get a good handle on. For bonds--1. Frightened money seeking safe harbours. 2. Stock market crash causing "flight to quality" as in '87. 3.US Gov't purchasing of Bonds if Japan dumps their holdings. 4. Deflation in the US. Against bonds--1. Foreign Gov'ts. dump their holdings. 2. US Money supply possibly out of control. 3. Inflation takes off in US. 4. US Dollar crashes. Conclusion--I will probably just keep my core of 9% Zeroes.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 02:51 - ID#255285)
gimme ISDN today please, we is slow
Nick @Aussie Great charts, whats all this NZ Music live@ luna wrote across your chart link? Who is playing?

Earl; G'day, glad it is bathday ;- ) didja know, according to the Guiness Book of records, NZ has the highest rate of ownership of baths per household in the world? jest another amazing fact from this mine of trivia...

Wichita Lineman darn it you just went to bed, well keep those home fires burnin...

Orange & Lemon Zingers

Some aunsers:

1 ) Blind mans bluff
2 ) Query your take on %s, but some people are right sometimes, and some people arent
3 ) Oh, No, deflation is just peachy for gold where is that Jastram Link when you need it?
4 ) Nasrudin, was observed searching under a street lamp in the middle of the night by a neighbour. What are you looking for Nasrudin? enquired the concerned neighbour. I am looking for my door key, I have locked myself out. The neighbour helped Nasrudin search for the key. Thirty fruitless minutes later the Neighbour says That key just isnt anywhere to be seen. Exactly where did you drop it? And Nasrudin points 50 yards down the street, Outside my door, he says. Well why arent we looking over there? asked the exasperated neighbour. Because theres no light over there, replied Nasrudin.
5 ) my pick is indiscriminate selling on gloopy-meltdown@day.
6 ) i am speachless.

And the etymology of Trivia is a beautiful example of the hidden poetry in English...

Tri .. as in Triangle, Tripod and Trifid, 3

Via.... as in Via Appia, Via duct... way, road

Where 3 roads met, the Romans posted the news.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 03:09 - ID#255285)
bite ma tung, billy gates boy, he k.o.
Dyslexia rools, K. O ?

l= '

(Tue Oct 21 1997 03:40 - ID#15637)

(Tue Oct 21 1997 03:46 - ID#255285)

Tip o' the clothcap to you.. wondrous.

Any luck with the small hours problem, you know, when the antipodeans, and the shift workers, the insomniacs, the Malyasians all start tuning in, until 0400 we have to scroll thru many ks of fine posting from 19;00 to 23:59 last nite. but over and over and over again?

It kinda reduces spontaneity, and goodness knows, i dont spark too often anyway..

only 15 minutes from Tulsa

I mean rightwayroundness..

Terimah Kasih

(Tue Oct 21 1997 04:06 - ID#255285)
liberty bell
Yes, and writing this into your constitution was the most wonderful act of and expression of freedom, one essential reason for my admiration of american ideal, a beautiful speach, imho..

"Conversely, we might possibly conclude that as a nation of immigrants, this country has been built and maintained by poorly educated men and women who landed here without any guarantees whatsoever; beyond the promise that they could build their fortunes without interference from govt or man. "


"Like liberty, gold never stays where it is undervalued."

- JS Morril Speech to US Senate 25 Jan 1878

(Tue Oct 21 1997 04:17 - ID#255285)
Gum sarn
Coooeee who's gonna play??

Auric you still on layover? shift work stuff..

Nick@Canberra ahhhhh. Beautiful Jewel's family. some came chasing the gold of GUM SARN --- THE GOLDEN MOUNTAIN ----- the legend, untold riches to last for generations, to praise the ancestors. Once, GUM SARN was New Zealand... and they came over here, the chinese from Beautiful Jewel's village, looking for Gum sarn, so they could send gold home, for it was such a poor village, and some did well, Uncle one eye, he lost his pig-tail in Cromwell a group of diggers got drunk on Old Sam's Lightning and cut the darned thing off... he sent many ounces home, an the others, they sent gold home, and kept the family from starvation and sometimes even more,

Gum sarn

mountain of gold.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 04:25 - ID#255151)

Hi aurator--Here's a tip to get around the scrolling problem. Use your "find word" function, and go to the earliest post after 19:00. Pick out a word from that post, and use "find word" That will take you directly to the 00:00 set of posts. Next BIG THOUGHT--Been thinking about this silver situation. Silver Standard Resources, and Pan American look like the next best thing to a Silver Option. Gonna load up on these two stocks when the market opens. If the Silver bugs are right, could prove to be a lot of bang for the buck!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 04:37 - ID#255285)
paper is not metal
Auric G'day, yes, i've been following these too, thanks to the many kind poster here, and some wonderful seaching library software, i am learning a lot too. It's just that i remember, years ago, many years ago, turning of the lights and lighting knotted plastic bags.. you know, they not only look amazing, but the sound of these melting globs of plastic, they screech as they fall and then they hit the waiting bucket of water with a hiss and a roar.

Now, this, to me, is what this next gloop@meltdown will look and sound like. Perhaps because of NZ's experience in 1987, our market is still 45% or so below 87 peak.. no paper for me, not right now, i can't move quick enough from down here

(Tue Oct 21 1997 05:08 - ID#386276)
For RJ

Grey skies grey seas, grey winds so cold
Blast polar seas and tropic gold
Bitter the storms of polar seas
Cruel the cyclones tyrannies
Such storms good seamen justly fear
But brave seas moods through all the year
Though grim the toll the grey seas take
Of human folly or mistake.

Today her mood is a caress
Flaunting the beautiful blue dress
Sweet dream of peace; and I too dream
With her of peace this day, this night
By quiet sea and calm moonlight.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 05:09 - ID#255151)

aurator--You're right, those stocks are paper, not metal, and that is a risk. My personal view is that there is, or will shortly be an accelerating shift from financials into assets. I am wagering that the mining stocks will be looked upon as "stuff" rather than paper in the minds of investors. In any case, you won't go wrong with the physicals, IMHO. If the worst does occur, that will be the thing to have!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 05:14 - ID#386276)
This one from the 30's when dad walked the roads of Canterbury, NZ as a bagman:

Padding the hoof again boys
I cut my stick today
And after the morning smoko
I'm down the road and away

Down the road and away boys
I'm hitting the track again
Glad to be on the move boys
Hoofing the open plain

Padding the hoof again boys
I've done enough work for a while
Glad to be on the road again
For many a workless mile

Cook here has filled my tucker bag
Meat tea salt flour and bread
And I'm away and walking
And watching the hills ahead

Padding the hoof again boys
I'm hitting the track today
As soon as the smoko's over
I'm down the road and away.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 05:22 - ID#386276)
Aurator what you mean?
NZ Music live@ luna?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 05:36 - ID#26793)
Taiwan Dollar Weakens 2%; Stocks Rebound as Govt Stems Slide

The Taiwan dollar tumbled almost 2 percent against the dollar as the island let its exchange rate
weaken for a third day to help exporters compete with regional rivals. The Taiwan currency
weakened to 31.05 to the dollar, its weakest since 1987, traders said. That left the Taiwan dollar
down almost 9 percent since Friday, when the central bank reversed course and said it would let
market forces set the exchange rate. The decline wasn't as steep as those in some Southeast Asian
currencies, which fell by a third or more since July. Yet it shows Taiwan can no longer afford to
chart its economic course alone. Today, the benchmark TWSE Index rose as much as 2.5 percent,
more than halving yesterday's loss.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 05:36 - ID#255285)
the road goes on for ever, and the party never ends...
Nick@Aussie The Canterbury plains out to the East the beautiful blue pacific ocean, to the West the Southern Alps, formed by techtonic plate movement and soaring in snow capped splendour into the sunset. The dry dustbowl canterbury plains. The many beautiful rivers, The Waitaki, the Waimak the The Rakaia The rocky river beds of round greywacke. The wide river fans that flood every decade or so. The dry, dry open plains. Hot summers. Some of my favourite country, thanks to your pa for the poem.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 05:40 - ID#26793)
Nick@Aussie: Thank you for the beautiful and informative charts you posted when I was sleeping. What is the brandname of the software that combines the candlestick and Fibonacci? Does it stand alone or does it require a support package?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 05:43 - ID#26793)
S. Korean Stocks Rise, Led by Banks, on Government Support

South Korean stocks rose for the first time in three days, led by banks and finance companies, after
the government said it will provide an additional 2 trillion won ( $2.2 million ) in special loans to
banks to help them deal with mounting bad loans. Finance & Economy Minister Kang Kyong Shik
is scheduled to meet with investment bank president at Noon. This morning, he asked commercial
bank presidents to refrain from calling in loans to companies. The benchmark KOSPI index rose
8.17 points, or 1.44 percent to 573.81, recovering from an early 2.0 percent drop. The banking
index jumped 3.5 percent, led by Cho Hung Bank and Commercial Bank of Korea.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 05:49 - ID#26793)

(Tue Oct 21 1997 05:52 - ID#386245)
G'day Aurator, Nick and Auric. Aurator--my apologies to Beautiful Jewel. I've been calling her "Precious". I'm sure she is both. Any good gold or silver mines in N.Z.? Perhaps you can advise.

Watched a very good program last night about the Klondike gold rush of 1896-98. The lady I quoted last night, Belinda Mulrooney, was a very smart lass. "I vowed I'd never need small change again" as she threw a SILVER coin into the Klondike. She was one of the first group up there before winter set in. Took LOTS of supplies with her. By mid-winter people were starving. They had to heat the ground with fires to melt it enough to sift through for gold. Many were desperate, couldn't find any gold and decided to try to walk back to civilization. Belinda bought up their claims at fire sale prices!! In the spring 20,000 more showed up. The ground thawed out. Belinda now owned some of the richest claims on the river, became extremely rich and settled back in Washington

Well folks--it's mid-winter, many of you are starving ( figuratively speaking ) and desperate. It's extremely cold outside. Are you going to sell your claims and hightail it back to warmer climes, or are you going to hang in there until the spring thaw and see what's in that frozen ground?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 05:53 - ID#26793)

(Tue Oct 21 1997 05:58 - ID#26793)

(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:03 - ID#26793)

(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:09 - ID#318123)
Earl, M. Strong is a person who knows some very powerful men at the World Bank. He has been involved in a shadey company that is trading on the NASDAQ with a company by the name of Molten Medals. At one time the stock traded in the $28.00/US range and sometime back dropped to $14.25/US in one trading day. Presently trading in the $5.35/US range, the interesting thing about this company is it was getting grants from the government and making claims it had a viable and productive environmental product. This turned out not to be true and Strong and afew head people sold their options at the highest prices before the crunch. This is'nt the only time M. Strong has been caught with his fingers in the cake I guess he's been there before, but just imagine with World Bank inside indorsement. Maybe prison time at the Palm Springs Correctional you know manicures and pedicures between 9-10 a.m. tennis 2-5 p.m. ta ta!!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:27 - ID#26793)

(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:29 - ID#255285)
what's in my long tom??
Nick@Aussie, my poota crashed just before i managed to explain this
*NZ Music live@ luna*

This message appears on my browser across each of the most ausssiouss charts you have been posting. The icon for your charts appears as a long bar with those words across it.

I first thought that perhaps you were a famous NZ rock star, after all your pop has the lyrics, and you has tasted the salt, ( like my pop ) and were advertising your next gig. Then I thought that perhaps those words were some danged plot by my ISP to subliminilise me with advertising. And if that is the case, why I reckon you are due your share Nick.. and I will have some words with my ISP.
One other solution is of course that my water tank has a dead possum and Im so sick I am hallucinating these messages..

Nick@Canberra>Nick@Canberra, and I thought you were calling me precious...

As to mines in NZ, confess not all info at hand. I shall do my duty and report, in the meantime, you might call these dredgings ....

Many NZ goldminers have been hit by high costs of compliance with the environmental-protection leaning legislation of the 80's. Coeur d'Alene owned Martha Hill ( in the Coromandel TED ) is now bogged down in litigation because of cyanide leakage from the heap-leaching pit.

Spectrum announced a few days after BRE-X got into the NZ papers, and about three weeks after it was first discussed at sages@pages.kitco that it was going to list on the Vancouver exchange to assist with equity raising...

it is getting late, and much as id like to linger..

what a joy it is, this kitco in the *morning*.

And Nick@Canberra, I remember reading of the *Valley of the dead horses.* I shall watch out for the tv prog on the klondike. You gotta story about the Eureka Stockade??

(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:35 - ID#26793)

Big Beaver
(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:36 - ID#262358)

For what it's worth - Down Under & Ring of Fire - Earth Change Predictions from Stan Deyo in Perth:

"This El Nino effect is only the beginning of sorrows for our world. There are going to be some horrific earthquakes which will sink parts of some continents and raise seabeds to form new unpolluted lands for the survivors of what is upon us soon. Watch New Zealand for a horrific seismo-vulcanic disaster in the near future. I have actually had two dream visions about this place which have agreed perfectly with what our seismic and thermal readings are now beginning to show for this country. We expect the disaster to take many sleeping victims in the Lake Taupo region of the North Island of New Zealand. For the last two weeks ( 15-21 Sep 97 ) we have been monitoring deep ( 300km+ ) , leading edge seismic events in a new region of the Kermadec Ridge north of the White Island volcanic site which bewgins the volcanic chain that has torn thru New Zealand leaving a wide, open wound in the land from one end to the other.

This event will soon be followed by huge volcanic and seismic events around the eastern edge of the Great Ring of Fire. The other hotspots which will suffer are already visible from the seismic data. Chile in South America, Japan, Mexico, Western USA, Alaska and Hawaii will all suffer severe seismic and/or tidal events in the next few years. These events will be bad enough on their own; but they will only be precursors of much worse disasters than those which tilted our planet 23.5 degrees off true and extincted the dinosaurs.... probably less than 5000 years ago".

Mike Sheller
(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:36 - ID#347447)
I love the smell of Kitco in the Morning

Cook here has filled my tucker bag
Meat tea salt flour and bread
And I'm away and walking
And watching the hills ahead

NICK ( Aussie ) : Dad's an artist! How swiftly at the turn of the morning shift at Kitco, doth the level of communion elevate.

Big Beaver
(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:41 - ID#262358)

For what it's worth - Down Under & Ring of Fire - Earth Change Predictions from Stan Deyo in Perth:

"This El Nino effect is only the beginning of sorrows for our world. There are going to be some horrific earthquakes which will sink parts of some continents and raise seabeds to form new unpolluted lands for the survivors of what is upon us soon. Watch New Zealand for a horrific seismo-vulcanic disaster in the near future. I have actually had two dream visions about this place which have agreed perfectly with what our seismic and thermal readings are now beginning to show for this country. We expect the disaster to take many sleeping victims in the Lake Taupo region of the North Island of New Zealand. For the last two weeks ( 15-21 Sep 97 ) we have been monitoring deep ( 300km+ ) , leading edge seismic events in a new region of the Kermadec Ridge north of the White Island volcanic site which bewgins the volcanic chain that has torn thru New Zealand leaving a wide, open wound in the land from one end to the other.

This event will soon be followed by huge volcanic and seismic events around the eastern edge of the Great Ring of Fire. The other hotspots which will suffer are already visible from the seismic data. Chile in South America, Japan, Mexico, Western USA, Alaska and Hawaii will all suffer severe seismic and/or tidal events in the next few years. These events will be bad enough on their own; but they will only be precursors of much worse disasters than those which tilted our planet 23.5 degrees off true and extincted the dinosaurs.... probably less than 5000 years ago".

(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:44 - ID#26793)

(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:46 - ID#257148)
pass those matchsticks please .....
Well Big Beaver, I was about to go to bed, because i have to when i read yours, well, kinda like that meteorite aiming @ted@Capebreton, ring of fire,
so true

sister was in Edgecumbe earthquake of 86 ( ? ) that levelled many houses and buildings, no fatalities, last year when Mighty Ruapehu erupted, a black curtain passed across the sun, she said. Rocks the size of refrigerators spewing from the crater. Nephew in Rotorua ( geothermal wonderland ) was caught in falling ash 40 km away, his car had a layer of ash, everyone stopped work, got home..

it couldnt happen here.....

I fall into a burning ring of fire.....................

Big Beaver
(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:48 - ID#262358)
  
Sounds off - not so much the earth change part or tilting of the axes polarity stuff, but the "less than 5,000 years ago". Sounds like he doesn't believe in carbon dating.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:51 - ID#26793)

(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:56 - ID#26793)
Big Beaver: The truth about the change in the tilt of the earth is that so much gold is shifting to the other side of the planet that it is starting to wobble.

BIG Beaver
(Tue Oct 21 1997 06:57 - ID#262358)
ë 
Aurator: Have you been suckin on some of nature's fermentations? Sort of sounds like me after I've partook of nature's necture or perthaps your a bit tired. Anyway, sounds like a fascinatin experience. Hope Nostradeyo was just havin a nightmare.

Stan Deyo Website
(Tue Oct 21 1997 07:01 - ID#288244)

Happy Halloween!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 07:04 - ID#386276)
You bring back memories.
I grew up in Tauranga, did all my sea time there. 4 years all told by the time I was 18. I remember walking on White Island, when it was bubbling and brewing, your feet would sink into the sulfurous ground about 4 inches. We used to make baths in the beach by scraping out the sand and letting the thermal waters fill it up with the sea waves lapping over the edges. Pure heaven - bliss. And the fishing WOW! You'd look over the side of the boat and see 90 ft down to the bottom. There straight below you would be a school of yellowtail kingfish, big suckers, the small ones 30lbs, the big hua's 70 to 100lbs. You'd thow a line over with a chunk of barracuda on it as bait and before it had sunk 20 ft there'd be ten kingy's fighting over it. The trick was to pull it out of their mouths at the right moment so that you'd work them into a frenzy. This would bring the big suckers in, and you'd let one of them have it. WOW 70lb of yellowtail on the line and you were away. Such fun for a kid growing up.
We used to pick blackberries on the way home from Roturora so mum would make us blackberry pie. UMMMM! Also possum and rabbit shotting with my uncle when I got old enough. We lived off the land, fantastic days.
Thanks aurator for kindling such fond memories.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 07:04 - ID#286199)
@WSJ - Interactive
This just in for your perusal:

Gold, Silver Lease Rates
In an Otherwise Bleak


Weary metals investors are finding solace
in a new trend: gold prices remain low, but
borrowing the precious metal has gotten

The one-month lease rates to borrow gold
and silver have each boomed in recent
weeks. For gold, lenders at bullion banks
are charging a fee of about 2.5% to borrow
the metal for a month. That fee has
decreased from about 3% earlier this
month, but is still significantly higher than
the 1.5% fee that traders call more normal.
For silver, the one-month lease rate
jumped to nearly 3% earlier this month,
compared with less than 0.5% in 1996.

"The lending rate is a thermometer" for the
supply and demand in the gold market, said
an upbeat James Turk, strategic adviser to
Midas Gold Fund, which was battered
earlier this year by falling gold prices.
"We had a spike up in rates last year," he
noted, harking back to a time when gold
prices peeked briefly above the
$400-an-ounce mark. Monday, gold for
delivery in December fell $1.40 an ounce
to $324.80 on the Comex division of the
New York Mercantile Exchange.
December silver, coming off a six-month
high earlier this month, slid two cents to
$4.938 an ounce.

Indeed, prices have made only limited
headway from this summer's bleakness.
The gold price has regained only about
$10 an ounce, or 3%, from its 12-year low
of $314 an ounce, hit in July. Silver fared
somewhat better and picked up 28% since
bottoming out near $4.15 an ounce. But
prices have fallen back from the furious
rally in the past three weeks.

While prices meander, lease rates have
moved sharply higher, causing speculation
about what is causing the increased
tightness. Generally, higher lease rates
reflect higher demand to borrow the metal
or a reduction in banks' willingness to lend
the metal. In silver, the increase in
borrowing fees has been accompanied by a
pronounced decrease in warehouse stocks
at the Comex, 33% since May. Monday,
Comex inventories fell again, dropping to
a new low for the month of 134 million
troy ounces.

Merrill Lynch metals analyst Ted Arnold
in London suggested in a report last week
that silver prices are being subjected to a
squeeze by speculators. "We increasingly
hear about a large hedge fund joining
forces with two very aggressive U.S.
bullion houses to run up the silver market,"
Mr. Arnold wrote in a report last week,
which added that the fund and two trading
firms owned a large amount of silver that
could be delivered in London or New
York. Mr. Arnold could not be reached for
comment, but William O'Neill, Merrill's
chief futures strategist, said that the
possibility of a speculative squeeze "is a
concern" to market participants.

But Jeffrey Christian, managing director of
the New York-based precious metals
consultancy CPM Group, dismissed Mr.
Arnold's description of a looming squeeze
by speculators. "It's not the funds" that are
pushing up prices, says Mr. Christian.
"There really is strong physical demand in
Asia." This year, demand from the key
consumer India is expected to increase
10%, and industrial use of the metal is
increasing for photography, batteries,
electronics, jewelry and silverware, he

For gold, some analysts say the increase in
lease rates comes from central banks and
other large hoarders, which have become
increasingly jittery about lending out gold.
While the banks have increased their
metals lending in recent years, recent
financial-market jitters may have slowed
their lending in anticipation of a possible
bounce in the gold price, these analysts

But other traders are less sanguine, noting
that gold lease rates have perked up in the
past when central banks stopped lending
gold, to instead start a sales program. "The
leading candidate for the increase in lease
rates [in gold] is a central bank" preparing
to sell, says Dinsa Mehta, managing
director for global commodities at Chase
Manhattan Bank. An outright sale, unlike a
lending program, would unleash large
amounts of gold permanently, an especially
negative factor for the metal's prices.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 07:04 - ID#262358)
¹ 
Thank you Donald - I will e-mail Deyo to ease his fears. Now, it's quite clear to me that the EURO CB's have probably come to the same brilliant conclusion and have already begun to buy it back from the Asians- to stop the shift of course.

BIG Beaver
(Tue Oct 21 1997 07:21 - ID#262358)
@Beaver Den

Well boys, despite the scary headlines about gold-bullion prices dropping and end of the world scenarios, anyone notice the gold bullion chart shows that, in fact, gold is simply at the lower end of a sixteen-year trading range, from where rallies have begun in the past.

The Gold Shorts are doing everything they can to knock the gold price lower to cash in on their short sales. The fact that gold bullion is holding above its summer's lows, despite all the efforts to knock it down, strikes me as bullishly confirming that we are near if not above the lows for the shiney stuff. Taking a position in both the pm metals and stocks I am committed at this stage to ride out or duck dive any decline from here.

Barrick has announced the closure of four mines so far. This
has confirmed my warm, furry beaver huntch that at these low gold prices many gold mines would begin to close down further contracting the supply of gold.

Quite bullish from a beavers view, see.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 07:43 - ID#286199)
Big Beaver: Per the WSJ article posted below and the excellent analysis of RJ and others, current gold prices are likely to go lower. Central bank selling in Europe will continue to pressure the price. Wait for 1998 and watch, but don't jump the gun.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 07:59 - ID#274190)
@North Shore
We've had bigger than normal waves so far this season credited to El Nino. We're supposed to have Bigger than normal waves this winter with the increased probability of huricanes. Insurance companies would sure be hurting if one hit Oahu, the main Island. Hurricane Iniki hit one of the much less populated islands, Kauai, with a near miss of Oahu. Everyone was shocked when one of the largest and oldest insurance companies owned by the only elctric utility company in Hawaii ( Hawaiian Electric, HECO ) , declared bankruptcy. Many of the insured could not collect and HECO through corrupt political clout was not held liable.

El Nino is not to be underestimated this coming season and its potential financial impact on state and federal governments.

We shall see.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 08:06 - ID#26793)

(Tue Oct 21 1997 08:13 - ID#18970)
WSJ ARTICLE. Whether gold is leased or sold it is supply on the market since the leased gold is sold and supposedly paid back with future production. This shows the stuff about CB sales is wall St propaganda so they can keep psychology down and more easily operate their raids in the deriviative markets. The stats clearly demonstrate that CBs buy and sell and the CB sales rumor stuff is to keep the mkt under raps.

Geo Soros on TV this AM says people of the world can not be left to the markets. He more or less said we need social safety nets everywhere.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 08:18 - ID#364147)
@ Aurator + Meterorite
Thanks mate....That's all Cape Breton needs ta really hit bottom...Dec. gold down .80 @ 3-2-4....Agree with Speed and Novice that "98" looks better fer the yellow stuff---get that EMU out of the way....

(Tue Oct 21 1997 08:27 - ID#427357)
THE COVERT GOLD COST OF OIL by Sheik Abu Bekr al-Rashid
This study gives material support to "ANOTHERs" hypothesis that there is a definite relationship between stable oil prices and gold's dwindling value in past years - the LBMA mystery continues, albeit another onion-layer of subterfuge peeled back:

(Tue Oct 21 1997 08:35 - ID#364147)
@ Trade deficit....+ Aurator
U.S. trade deficit came in @ -10.4 billion ( a little more than expected ) Aurator:What's a little cyanide????...S+P futures up 2.75

(Tue Oct 21 1997 08:42 - ID#262358)
 

Speed: "Likely to go lower" per RJ, Wa;; Street, etc. Hmm.. As you're surely aware of wall streets spin, I wouldn't base too much on their script. You can make the case both ways of course, but I feel the odds are definitely tipped in favor of gold having already seen its bottom and is more likely to trend up rather than dip lower at this inning of the ball game. But, in the same beaver breath, I wouldn't be surprised to see gold go lower from here before a bull market.

By selling two-thirds of their national gold holdings, Australia reinforced the gold community's worst fear - central banks are increasingly more interested in holding reserve assets, which
generate income. But bear in mind, the size of the sale was small - just five million ounces -- but as you exemplify, the psychological impact was huge.

Speed, adjusted for inflation, gold is now priced well below the 1982 low of $295. Most gold mines are losing money, mine development is being
deferred, and the list of mine closures is growing rapidly. This last point is worth paying attention to. There are practical limits to how low gold can be sustainably pushed down ( and it has for many years now ) . One
recent study indicated that 57% of the world's gold mines are unprofitable with gold at $325. Thus, if gold continues to trade below that level, the industry will simply contract and exacerbate the existing deficit in primary supply. Do you really believe the Rubin and his boys aren't fully on top of this? As has been pointed out here by GSC and others, it's not in their best interest to have a gold price that necesssitates mine closures world-wide.

What about investor sentiment? Recent statistics as discussed here and other places indicate that large speculative short positions outweighed
speculative longs by as much as an eleven to one ratio. This is the highest ratio we've seen in the past decade. Speculators are the most bearish even as gold's risk-to-reward ratio is the most attractive it has been in years. In summary speed, gold has been pushed WELL below equilibrium levels by aggressive short selling in response to MODEST central bank sales ( 110 ton Supply/demand deficit, et all. It is not unreasonable to expect that these depressed levels can be maintained through the seasonal slow summer demand period, particularly if another
central bank is currently dumping some gold as isnot only possible but probable. BUT, the resumption of normal demand levels or the drying up of additional central bank sales will put TREMENDOUS pressure on speculative short positions to cover. Asian demand is increasing, G-7 CBs know this. CB sales are coming to an end sooner than later my friend. Only a magician knows the exact timing of botttoms, but some of us have gut instincts where the best risk-reward bets are to be made. I've made my money because I've followed mine. I think RJ took the advice of Futureman as he now embraces his call for an early 98 upturn. For myself, BIG Beaver, I'm not trying to catch a bottom, but common beaver sense tells me now is an excellent time to start accumulating. I've learned the hard way and missed the train many times trying to catch bottoms. I've learned from my mistakes. Seems to me RJ will learn from his.

I recommend PATIENT accumulation of gold and gold mining shares during this period of extreme pessimism.

You see from my point of view, I've already boarded the rocket ship ( committed myself to this general time frame of 97-98 ) . I will add to positions as the rocket ship gains momentum. ( Plenty of fuel on board for this multi-year adventure ) .

George Cole
(Tue Oct 21 1997 08:45 - ID#42953)
gold bull
RJ: Glad you decided to come back. Beginning to look like you are right about the gold bull not getting underway in earnest until early 1998. The key technical indication that the gold bull has commenced will be when bullion rallies sharply and the open interest climbs rapidly as well. Beware rallies characterized by declining open interest

(Tue Oct 21 1997 08:52 - ID#286199)
@leaving for the salt mines
Big Beaver: You have an optimistic and detailed analysis which I appreciate. I disagree on the point about CBs caring about mine closures. They control over 30,000 tons of metal and extensive mine closures gives them an airtight monopoly. Prices will rise only if the CBs decide that it's time. good luck with all your trades, I'm making money on energy services until gold turns up. FSESX +1.25 yesterday and going up again today on Cliff's drilling news. Be Back this pm.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 08:59 - ID#287389)
Tortfeasor/Strad Master: Re. your posts yesterday morning

Look, I agree US is suffering moral decay, but not to any greater degree than at many times in the past. Besides which our culture is beginning to exhibit signs of a shift back toward a healthier balance. If you stand back and look, US society is much more tolerant and sensitive ( to a fault? ) than any time in our history.

So I find it humorous when someone thinks society needs a "toilet flush" as a "cleansing" process, or that an economic "great depression" is needed to "refresh our minds of what its really like to suffer" That's an unreasonable, funny opinion.

Dave "the Cracker of Cryptic" Keffler
(Tue Oct 21 1997 09:09 - ID#271190)
Big Beaver. You can do better trhan that. Your cryptic messgaes have been cracked.

  = "I WILL MAKE MILLIONS"

You've made some interesting points, But....

Gold is unloved, underowned and tarnished. AND Central banks too have been dumping gold.

I agree that gold will ahve its day, but tend to agree w/ speed.

BIG Beav
(Tue Oct 21 1997 09:16 - ID#262358)

"Cryptic Crackup":

The ratio between an ounce of gold and one unit in the S&P 500 is about at 40%. After the Crash of 1987, it was about 200%. If you have a contrarian bone in your body that isn't cracked, then your horns should be perking up. You might be well rewarded listening to BIG Beaver in Space. First, though, I admit, gold has to make breakout above its down trend line near $340. Once through there, you could expect gold
to test $400 by early January.

Dave Keffler
(Tue Oct 21 1997 09:25 - ID#271190)
Beaver: You discuused Buffets move into zeros a while ago with the dyedin the wool S&P 5400 invetsor or something to that affect. You mentioned it as a hedghe on his portfolio, bet on lower interest rates, etc. Can this guy really be thinking of rates being lowered in this present environment with the surprise German rate hike and greenspans warnings of building wage inflation pressures? Hardly likely - there's got to be anotherb reason.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 09:34 - ID#31868)
Seems like Clinton gets all the headlines. I thought Uncle Al ought to get some equal access:

From the 12/6/96 Washington Times "Inside the Beltway" by John McCaslin:

The planet's future

If Vice President Al Gore really wants to become the next president of the United States, he'd better begin by getting a grip on reality.

Inside the Beltway has obtained two letters, the first sent to Mr. Gore by an elderly couple, Joe and Dolores Delgadillo of Dallas. The second letter is the vice president's reply to Mr. and Mrs. Delgadillo.

In the first letter, Mr. and Mrs. Delgadillo explain to Mr. Gore how much they rely on the government-owned Amtrak trains to visit their children and grandchildren in Chicago and on each coast. The couple reminds the vice president that President Clinton relied on train travel to reach the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. "The train has been our main-stay," the couple states. "Yet your administration is killing our Texas Eagle. This makes us sick."

The Texas Eagle is the Amtrak train that for years has operated between Chicago, St. Louis, Little Rock, Dallas, Fort Worth and San Antonio. But facing a $243 million shortfall in 1997, Amtrak President Thomas Downs recently targeted four Amtrak routes for elimination, including the Texas Eagle service between St. Louis and San Antonio. "What can you do to save our Eagle?" the couple pleaded to the vice president.

"Dear Mr. and Mrs. Delgadillo," Mr. Gore wrote back. "Thank you for your letter regarding the protection of the Texas eagle. I appreciate hearing from you. "I share your view that the urgent problem of species extinction and the conservation of biological diversity should be addressed. The first step in saving any plant or animal from extinction is to become aware of and respect the fragile ecosystems that make up our environment ... "Again, thank you for sharing your thoughts with me. I look forward to working with you for the future of our planet."

(Tue Oct 21 1997 09:42 - ID#251129)
Anyone can post anything here alot of it dubious. However, the gigantic volume at the LBMA gives be pause when reading Another's posts. People do not engage in transactions, which have costs, for no reason.

So why is there the LBMA vol? Another has an intesting idea.

Farmer John
(Tue Oct 21 1997 09:45 - ID#340190)
@Gold phooey
I vote it's time to do some Beaver huntin. I traid gold for Beaver pelts anyday!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 10:02 - ID#20135)

TOKYO, Oct 21 ( Reuters ) - The Tokyo stock market's benchmark Nikkei 225 average is likely to fall substantially, although it may not
test the past support line of 14,000, Byron Wien, U.S. investment strategist of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter said on Tuesday.


(Tue Oct 21 1997 10:08 - ID#271190)
Farmer John - you need to see Uncle Al - he'll set you straight on animal rights etiquette. Beavers are a rare species of animal. Gold is a rare and precious animal, too ( albeit in a cage at present ) . Now go see Uncle and then back to your farm to tend to yer turnips.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 10:11 - ID#371247)
Joke of the Day
Gold and silver continue to be cumbered with all the economic baggage that Washington and dollar lovers continue to place upon it but its time will come. It will rise from the financial floor shavings in due course. Keep stockpiling and your stocks will rise. Here's some pithy thoughts on advice such as mine.

Bubba and Hoss, two neighboring farmers, were having a beer and talking after a long hard day in the fields. "My mule's feelin' poorly and running a fever," Bubba said. "What did you give that old mule of yours when he got sick?" "I gave him cottonseed oil," Hoss replied. A few days later Bubba spotted Hoss in the field and said, "Hey, I gave my mule that cottonseed oil, and it killed him!" "Yep," Hoss muttered. "It killed mine, too!"

(Tue Oct 21 1997 10:17 - ID#426220)
LBMA EXPOS: PART 7 (October 20, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis Compiled by Red Baron
"The Onion PARADOX" peels yet another layer away from the eventual truth of the LONDON BULLION MARKETING ASSOCIATION...:

(Tue Oct 21 1997 10:23 - ID#7568)

Another day and another couple of hundred call options in silver. Our pile grows ever larger. I heard that someone bought 4000 July 7.00 calls yesterday. Just another 20 million reasons that when this thing goes its going to go big.

Apparently the government in Japan is starting to get more than a little worried about the continued stagnation in their economy. There is talk of a rate cut as if that would do any good at all. The new problem they are having is with the massive devaluation of the Southeast Asian currencies. This is going to hurt their trade flows in this region and cause increased capital to flow to these areas for the creation of productive capacity. The most natural result of the devaluations is to put pressure on the Japanese currency. A competitve devalutation by Japan would boost competitiveness with the West, thus it is an 'easy' fix to what ails them. The problem is, if the Yen goes to 150, Detroit is going to go ballistic.

Another point to remember is that Japanese public debt is enormous and growing ( ~$3-4T ) . Fortunately for them it is financed at very low rates. Continuing currency devaluation is eventually going to make bond holders sick. With rates at 1.75 percent for ten year money, a little devaluation induced inflation will not look pretty.

When do suppose that the average Joe in Japan will figure out that you can get a better return by owning and loaning precious metals than by investing in government bonds?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 10:25 - ID#316232)
According to some of my indicators, gold stocks and funds are approaching oversold, and are setting up for a rally, possibly within the next few days. I don't see it lasting very long unless a few fundamentals change or unless the shorts panic.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 10:25 - ID#364147)
@ house for sale
Don't get bent out of shape dudes if I plug my house here...Sale price is 400.49 oz's of GOLD...The pics don't really do the place justice as the view shot should have shown more ocean and less woods but you get the general idea:

(Tue Oct 21 1997 10:28 - ID#433171)
SIG, You must be from some other planet, because moral decay is rampant and getting worse. I will mention a couple of examples, however I could sit here and write a book on it. #1. Some of our American cities are all gay communities. ( when in history did we experience that ) When the Roman empire collapsed. #2. Child pornography ( real sick minds on the lose ) and radio talk show hosts with extremely sick minds. I could tell you about this stuff night and day. The end is near, so you can beleive in little fairy tales about how we plan to come out of this untouched. It aint gonna happen. No pain no gain.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 10:33 - ID#258427)
@Ted's house
Ted ... what would you do if you sold the house ... nice pad!!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 10:38 - ID#364147)
@ Billd
Move to Swan's Island a passive solar house and BUY GOLD!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 10:40 - ID#227238)
LGB: "I hereby dub you "Earl the magnificent"....Yawn"...... Since we are often judged by the quality of our enemies, your fawning endorsement is received with a grateful spirit.

The Wichita Lineman
(Tue Oct 21 1997 10:42 - ID#374200)
reading the Red Baron
I have just spent an hour reading the Red Baron's LMBA 'mystery'. It seems to me that if oil, paper, foodstuffs, etcetera. Were to be paid for/backed by gold, we would need a lot more of it. Therefore, I propose a new monetary system: The US switiches to 100 % gold backed currency, and they 'guarantee' the price of gold. Nice ? stable ?, just an idea.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 10:44 - ID#227238)
Aurator: ""Like liberty, gold never stays where it is undervalued."

And some lessons are destined to be relearned ..... into infinity.

George Cole
(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:02 - ID#42953)
GM wants dollar at 100 yen

(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:02 - ID#364147)
@ What me worry
Who cares...Cape Breton has already crashed....:

To next story
To briefs

Talk back!

Tuesday, October 21, 1997

City could crash in 2000

Council warned of danger from millennium bug

By CHRIS LAMBIE -- The Daily News

The year 2000 could have a "devastating" effect on Halifax
Regional Municipality's computers, says a report that will be
delivered to council tonight.

A technical glitch in the way programs are written could cause
metro's computers to calculate the end of the millennium as
1900, "or quite possibly, they will simply shut down," says a
report from Larry Corrigan, the city's commissioner of
corporate services.

"The following represents merely a preliminary list of the most
obvious applications used by HRM that can and undoubtedly
will be affected: accounts receivable ( including property tax
calculations, cash registers, bar code readers and card-swiping
machines ) ; permitting systems; monitoring of sewage pumping
stations and waste water treatment plants; communication
systems ( including radio, 911, telephone and e-mail ) ; payroll
and pension calculations; Go-Time and other information
systems related to transit; records management programs;
accounts payable; security systems; fire control panels;
streetlights and traffic lights; environmental control systems
( heat, lights, air conditioning, electricity ) ; all computer
hardware, and all computer software," says the report.

The municipality also relies on a lot of contractors that will be
affected, says the report.

"At this point in time we have no assurances that the systems
and programs used by those service providers will continue to
function past 1999 .... If left unaddressed, the impact on our
operational efficiencies and the public's confidence in our
business processes will be enormous."

Fixing the problem could cost as much as $10 million, said
Mayor Walter Fitzgerald. Corrigan said last night it's too early
to put a price tag on the problem. His report says the
ramifications are "likely to be expensive."

The trouble is as old as computers themselves. Back in the
1940s and '50s, computers could only store data on inefficient
punch cards. Even in the '60s and '70s, memory was so
precious - and expensive - it made sense to programmers to
drop the "19" that preceded all yearly dates.

The report recommends reviewing the municipality's affairs to
figure out what will be "most severely impacted by computer

"The second step is to divide those critical areas into two
categories: those that can be corrected in time, and those for
which contingency plans must be devised."

The issue is a priority "to which appropriate funds and
resources are now being committed," says the report. The
millennium bug is expected to cost anywhere between $600
billion US and $2 trillion US globally.

Local | National | World | Sports | Matinee | Life | Business | Computers |
Opinion | Mou's Cartoon | Letters | Hotline |
Events | Horoscope | Comics | Caption Contest | Hit Halifax! | Staff |

(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:14 - ID#31868)
From the latest Onion peelings, "Gold is the only money the world has ever known." Sounds like a simple thought but it isn't.

"money is whatever people say it is" Not True! Currency is whatever a government says it is" Ture! "

There are nine more words in the quote, I stopped it where I did for this exercise.

Gold is the only money the world has ever known.

I agree, it is simple. End of story.

"Currency is whatever a government says it is" True!

Not true, I disagree! Not in the Union of States known as the United States! In our constitution, ( Article 1, Sec 8 ) , we gave Congress authority "to coin money".

End of story, everything else that has been done is a direct alteration of the Constitution. Plain and simple.

There was never a submitted proposal to amend the Consitution wherein the people agreed to "paper" money instead of gold and silver.

Please excuse the strident tone. I have alot of respect for the opinion peelers and the others discussing the LBMA dealings.

But, we the people never agreed to paper and we never agreed to give up the only real money the world has ever known, gold and silver.

"Currency is whatever a government says it is" The only reason this statement can be made is due to the fact that we the people have not demanded our Constitutional rights be enforced.

The quote goes something like, "the only way evil can succeed is if good men do nothing."

George Cole
(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:17 - ID#42953)
DA: Dollar at 150 yen would be very bearish for gold in addition to severely hurting the domestic auto industry. Probably would negate your system's buy signal.

All: Looking beyond CB machinations the key factor behind gold's very poor action is the simple fact that the U.S. economy is the strongest in the world right now. This is a source of continuing pressure on our trading partners to devalue their currencies and push up the dollar index still further. Gold will have a hard time mounting a sustained rally until pressure on our trading partners to devalue eases considerably

(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:18 - ID#81288)
Anyone KNOWS the reason for the explosion in GC7Z, XAU.X and HUI.X during the past 30 minutes, please post it. Thank you.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:18 - ID#387247)
TED.........HOLD UP !!!!!!! You can't sell your house until after I come up to visit. Am saving my pennies now. May take a while at the current rate. Scaterie and Oak here we come !!!!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:25 - ID#20135)
Nice link, thanks George.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:27 - ID#387247)
What Explosion ????
KORONDY....What explosion in GC ????? I see the stocks, but not the metals.

George Cole
(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:31 - ID#42953)
Byron Wien bearish
KORODNY: Looks like a bounce in a heavily oversold market. Perhaps the beginning of the rally Glenn projected recently.

Morgan Stanley's Byron Wien bearish on both Japan and U.S. stock markets.

Tokyo Nikkei seen falling substantially - Morgan

TOKYO, Oct 21 ( Reuters ) - The Tokyo stock market's benchmark Nikkei 225 average is likely to fall substantially, although it
may not test the past support line of 14,000, Byron Wien, U.S. investment strategist of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter said on

Problems in Japan's financial structure are likely to become severe and unemployment would hurt Japan's economy, weighing
on the Nikkei average, Wien told reporters in Tokyo.

His broad survey of regional economic trends did not say when he expected the Nikkei plunge or at what level he thought the
index would end the year.


TOKYO, Oct 21 ( Reuters ) - The Tokyo stock market's benchmark Nikkei 225 average is likely to fall substantially, although it
may not test the past support line of 14,000, Byron Wien, U.S. investment strategist of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter said on

Problems in Japan's financial structure are likely to become severe and unemployment would hurt Japan's economy, weighing
on the Nikkei average, Wien told reporters in Tokyo.

His broad survey of regional economic trends did not say when he expected the Nikkei plunge or at what level he thought the
index would end the year.

He added that the U.S. stock market is close to the end of a long uptrend due to a possible correction in U.S. long-term interest
rates and the recent net foreign purchases of U.S. stocks, a harbinger of market corrections in the past.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:36 - ID#387247)
KORONDY and ALL...Look at the XAU and HUI. Every one of the stocks shows a gain. There are only 1 or 2 exceptions.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:37 - ID#333131)
tolerant 1 and all: If gold has value,which it does, it will take care of itself. Its value is objective and not subject to tinkering. It is its PRICING which gets out of whack when people ( nations ) choose to adulterate their currencies and forget for a time that money itself cannot be priced without undermining it as a medium of exchange.

Nine inches
(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:39 - ID#375310)
Nailz, yess, my precious, they've all turned UP on a dime. Curious, isn't it. Someone has news the rest of us have not?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:41 - ID#31868)
The worse Asia looks, Japan in particular, the more gold will rise and then explode. As some have said, even the most ardent goldbugs will be amazed.

I believe the Japanese people are in a far better position that the American people.

My reasoning stems from the fact that the Japanese people that are not putting money into stocks, or US debt have, are and will continue to buy gold.

The American people have not got a clue about what is going on. They are buying "dips" pushing tech stocks up that are hugely overpriced and they continue to pour money, and their savings into the overall stock market and mutual funds for the promised land of ten more years of 20%+ gains they can retire on.

As to Maurice Strong, he does not worry me. He is nothing more then a water boy as is Henry Kissinger, I want to know to whom they deliver the buckets.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:42 - ID#31868)
CARL: In the immortal words of Buckwheat, O'tay, well said Sir.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 11:44 - ID#81288)
Do you see it yet? Heavy volume coming into GC above 325 and SI above 4.97. Delayed commodity and real-time index quotes, perhaps?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 12:00 - ID#7568)

Were the Yen to go to 150 to the dollar I don't think this would be bearish for gold. Two effects would come into play with respect to Japanese gold demand. First, there would be a decline in jewelry demand due to higher prices but there would also be an offset in rising investment demand for the same reason. The bullish factor in all this is that after the Yen reached 150 there would be great cry for the US to devalue in kind to restore the 'proper' currency relationship. This would require lower rates and more paper dollars. It is the full cycle of competitive currency devaluation which pushes the price of stuff, not half of the cycle. The big forces which are still in play are the massive quantities of government debt which must be serviced throughout the world. The powers that be have deemed that none will be allowed to default. The only solution to the problem is to shorten maturities to 0 or in other parlance to monetize. Currency devaluation is a means towards that end.

Buy gold, buy silver, buy platinum, buy palladium. We are in a bull market.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 12:08 - ID#347332)

Hello, back from vacation. Prior to my departure,
gold was making a rally. What happened?
You guys are still looking for a rally?
This forum still busy. I dont understand.
Gold is NOT going anywhere for awhile.
1997 - 17 years after 1980 ( gold peak ) and
still waiting. I must admit, you guys are tough.
EB - how're them waves down there?
DONALD - do you ever sleep, or eat or something?
VRONSKY- your charts still DONT talk to me. I Cant
get the message.


(Tue Oct 21 1997 12:10 - ID#31868)
D.A.- Reasonable, sound thinking. I also think there is another major problem facing the US. During all these years that the stock market has been in AL's wonderland the govt. has reaped huge taxes. Take away the massive inflow of taxes when the bubble bursts and the US has a monster to deal with.

The dollar dropping like a rock is for this and many other reasons a foregone conclusion in my mind.

I wonder what will happen when Uncle Bill tells the American people he has to raise taxes so the govt can keep running.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Oct 21 1997 12:29 - ID#287367)
Bart: Many thanks for returning the Web Resources Button ! !

(Tue Oct 21 1997 12:34 - ID#402191)
Your enthusiasm that emanates from your system's precious metals buy signals is contagious. And many of us "hope" it will prove to be justified.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 12:42 - ID#251213)
DA, which gold/silver options look interesting to you? If you respond pls include the price

(Tue Oct 21 1997 12:43 - ID#246224)
Mikey - We ARE in a gold rally! Welcome back. Since you've been gone we redefined all the terms. It will take you a bit'o'time to catch on but it will be worth it ;- ) Seriously, though, we're all a little disappointed by the lack of conviction and subsequent pull back. There are some good signs. A few video-heads have been talking up gold/PM stox. Canadian MFund purchased 2.4 Mln ounces in three days in July'97 ( equivalent to ~5% of their equity position ) . India is liberalizing their gold trade. It looks like we are seeing some vacillation in price based on world region. The US being less convinced than London and sometimes the Asian region. JIN has been reporting on the horrendous situation out in his country ( bank runs, fires, political routes, etc ) . North Korean/China border area looks like a moon scape. Japan looks like its in negative GDP growth ( last qtr -11% anuallized GNP ) and getting worse. All this bad news has Kitco a bit subdued. Gold seems to be holding against 323 pretty well.

WAITING it out. We're a tough group when we're not teething on each other, that is.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 12:58 - ID#20135)
Seems like it might be a good time for the Dow to top out and head back below 8000. Let's see how it does.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:00 - ID#347447)
written in the bars
How fortuitous that share prices are reversing today after HM and PDG, for example, hitting that H&S breakout neckline in their predictable return move. As predicted. This is VERY bullish and step A. Step B is a move to new highs in this rally. If that happens, then C - the bottom is IN. Gold will then go no lower than it has so far this year, and NO LOWER than TODAY for the rest of the year...perhaps ever. Buckle up.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:07 - ID#252127)
tolerant1 @ 9:34

tolerant1; now we know why some call "Uncle Al"
the SPOTTED AL ( owl ) . Perhaps they will blame the error on staff stupidity?
I'm sure that any bird with the gift of flight can find a home most anywhere, be it an owl or and eagle.
First off, I am not against environmental laws, essentially it is our duty to help achieve.
A major problem that we have little control over is the air we breath, there I'm with the spotted-one or any other politician or statesman who will do something about that particular problem.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:09 - ID#269409)
@Bearish Indicator, Puetz
Stocks crashing UP today Puetz! I missed yesterdays move but bought the close so today I'm happy. We do however, have an old and trusted indicator that is showing bearish signs, I refer of course to skirt lengths. Maybe it's just the cold fall weather falling upon us but I noticed a DRASTIC dropping in hemlines the past few weeks. Can this mean anything other than a market crash right around the corner?????

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:12 - ID#251213)
One possible good development for the gold mrkt is that Kaplan is losing
his positive feeling towards the gold mrkt. Kaplan has been extreamly bullish forever and is now moderating his bullishness.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:12 - ID#7568)

This morning we purchased some Sept 625's for 10.5. The implied vols are in the 23 range. Eminently reasonable, or absurdly cheap depending on how you look at it. For comparison, take a look at march OJ calls. The implied vols of march 95's are around 70. Both of these markets face 'event' risk. In the silver market the risk is a squeeze by specs rounding up the available stocks. In the OJ market there is a risk of frost from El Nino altered weather patterns. Why does one market trade at an implied vol of almost 3x the other? Beats the h*&l out of me.

Although I am quite enthusiastic about the PM markets in an absolute sense it is the risk reward tradeoff which sets me to dreaming. If the squeeze materializes the options convexity will force it to sky in very short order. I mentioned before that yesterday a trade crossed for options on 20MM ounces of silver. This may represent between 5 and 10 % of total world stockpiles. The point is that there are many such landmines out there. Should the prices start to rise there will be no way for the writers to effectively delta hedge. The spike will look like Palladium, Coffee, Natural Gas, Wheat, Corn, Lumber only bigger. The silver market is one that attracts public interest. I'm hoping for a feeding frenzy.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:12 - ID#213265)
@the scene
The current lows in the gold are an important area. Any subsequent breakdown of those lows will more than likely mean another initial 6 dollar drop approximaely. Immediate recover from there not being seen quickly will mean a further drop and making new contract lows. One of the two will mean the end of the current 'southside' nature of the metal and present us with new upside potentialities. Watch your backsides and the action surrounding the 'dips' should they appear. If this breakdown occurs, in my best estimation, it should happen today/tomorrow.

Hogs is now on the closely watch list. There is a chance that dec may dip briefly dip 60. No guarantees there though, but activity today suggests 'possibilities'.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:15 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Appears I managed to garble the hogs. Anyway, there is a possibility that a brief dip below 60 can happen.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:22 - ID#269409)
Gold Stock Prices
Some of the latest relative to yesterdays close, ECO up 1.3%, HL unchanged, SSRIF up 2.9%, CDE up 1.8%, IPMCF -5.0% ( they must have seen our discussion here yesterday! ) , ABX up 2.2%, PDG up 1.4%, NEM up 2,2%.

Silver stocks doing poorly. SSC unchanged, PAASF -1.6%

Platinum play SWC unchanged

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:24 - ID#269409)
ElDorado, re your 13:12, so we should sell Gold and buy Pork Bellies? Not sure they'll fit in my safe.....

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:26 - ID#213265)
@the scene
LGB -- You really are nuts, aren't you? Did I say to sell gold? Did I say anything about pork bellies? Jeesh!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:28 - ID#269409)
Funnin with you El, re Hogs, thought it was obvious

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:30 - ID#316232)
xau jump
The recent jump today in XAU and gold stocks shows the quick response of latent gold stock buyers ready to buy at any sign of gold moving up. However, Joberg gold was down all day, which tends to deflate rallies.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:30 - ID#2082)
Donald - Japan rates of .40%?? hmmmmmmm... like D.A. said other vehicles will look more attractive for average Japan Joe. Japan seems to be in that rock and a hard place thing. There economy is questionable at best and the en is holding it's own. I still like en at 110-100. It will get there not because of economies but because of 'politicking'.

D.A. - 150 en?? You are right...Detroit would sh!t pickles... You make some great arguments for silver. BUT, wouldn't it be better to sell puts instead of buying out of the money calls if you are sure of direction?? You stand a better chance of making a buck or two, no? And as for will not follow silver. It may be dragged by silver for a while but I don't think it will be going anywhere but down. And it might even keep silver down with it as it has been doing ALL summer. The bull has not arrived yet...politics rule over supply and demand...isn't this a great game?? If I am wrong and silver takes off I think I can still buy at the dips...and if I can't then...oh well...

Stox - I see you are crashing up...hmmmmmmm

Gold - The week is not over and you will get WHACKED for the remainder...Friday will be a baaaaaaaad day for you...

Big Beaver - Dinosaurs extinct less than 5 thousand years ago??????? What kind of carbon dating have you been smoking?? Your plate tectonics are a bit agressive and bordering on the apocolyptic. We are due for a big one in Cal. but it will not split us off into the ocean...just yet ( maybe in 50,000 to 500,000 yrs ) I think that mother nature will not act that way in the next couple of years...unless of course you are speaking in geologic time and a couple of years = 10,000 or 50,000 yrs. Dino's 5,000 yrs ago...that was a good one...I'm still yuk, yukin'.

Mikey - You said 'down there'. You from No. Cal?? The waves have been pretty good, better after the storms. Depends on what direction the shoreline faces. I have much coastline from which to choose. And I have been sidelined for a while with a nagging shoulder injury. My golf game has suffered as well...damn!

Nick ( Aussie ) - You're Gold chart looks VERY bearish...VERY...and thanks.

Ted - look at all that wood piled up by the are the king of chainsawin'. Go FISH!!

GO Plat!... GO en!!...GO...


cherokee - you the man!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:31 - ID#269409)
Foreign Investment, New Gold mines
Artcile attached re foreign investors to invest in opening 6 new mines. 200 million ounces a year. Bullish or Bearish? I say that in spite of the "Mine closure leads to higher prices" thinking, the new mine financing is bullish. SHows that investors believe the price is going higher.

uesday October 21 11:38 AM EDT

Honduras sees new foreign gold mine investment

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras, Oct 21 ( Reuters ) - Foreign mining companies plan to invest $150 million in opening six gold mines
in Honduras, the president of the National Association of Honduran Metal Mining said Tuesday.

Roberto Dala told reporters that the mines, which are expected to come on line from September 1998, will generate 180,000 to
200,000 ounces of gold per year.

Dala named the foreign mining companies as Greenstone Resources Ltd ( GRE.TO ) ; Breakwater Resources ( BWR.TO ) ; Gemoaque;
BMG Cyprus, a unit of Battle Mountain Gold Co ( BMG.AX ) ; and Echo Bay Mines Ltd ( ECO.TO ) .

No details of specific mines was given.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:32 - ID#251213)
DA Comex has options out to July 98 how did you buy sept 98? was that a typo?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:35 - ID#251283)
TVX cruising lower on large volume. Is there a problem?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:42 - ID#285233)
Inflation in the pipeline- Do't let any of the new age economists and/or government tell you otherwise. Inflation is nothing else but a monetary phenomenon.Milton Friedman received Nobel Prize for demonstrating this fact. Inflation, in the long run has abolutely nothing to do with price of oil, labor rates etc. The changes in these are the result of the money supply growth. Money is just another commodity against which we choose to measure everything else. An increase in the availability of $$$ cheapens $$$. The dramatically acceleratingn growth in all measures of money suplly indicators tell the story. The M3 indicator is up 8.4% over the forth quarter base and on a year over year basis it is up 12.7 %. This is the highest growth rate since 1981 and 1977 when M3 indicator was increasing at 12.8%. Of course this was accompanied/followed by high inflation. Since 1981 the M3 ( cash and its equivalents ) rate of change steadily decreased to -.8% in 1992. Since then it has been exploding. The FRB has so far monetized only 20% !!! of the visible debt of 5.3 trillion. In order to provide liquidity to the irrationally exhuberant markets the debt monetization through the purchase of the debt instruments is feeding the growth of our money supply. Also, contributing to this insanity is the growth in the commercial and industrial loans !!! 11.5% in September. Stay the course-the time is coming for great leveling of the playing field. We will see if gold is "the barbaric metal from our past" as referred to by one member of our FRB.
Note: inflation adjusted price of gold ( going back over 150 years is about $428 in today's currency.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:42 - ID#269409)
And a looming disastor in space, 1998
Here's yet another potential disastor that could affect business/.markets. This is from my own field of expertise..rocket science... ( Comm. Satellites actually )

The Satellite Boom vs. the Leonids meteor showers

By Craig Bricknell

SAN FRANCISCO ( Wired ) - The growth of space debris from hundreds of satellite launches in recent years is enough or space engineers to cope with -- but next on their agenda is an even bigger potential problem.

It comes Nov. 17, 1998.

Man may have stirred up a little dust cloud of near-earth debris, but leave it to Mother Nature to whip up a real cosmic shit-storm.

Every 33 years, or so, she unleashes the Leonids, a torrent of meteoroids that tears through Earth's orbital field at more than 160,000 mph on the tail of the comet Tempel-Tuttle.

On a normal night, you might see half a dozen meteors; in the next Leonids storm in November 1998, you'll see 150,000 or more.

"It's the closest thing there is to an interplanetary dust hurricane," says Peter Brown, the world's preeminent Leonids specialist at the University of Western Ontario.

And just how do satellites handle hurricanes? "That's the million-dollar question," says Brown, "No one who works on satellites has factored in meteor storms."

Perhaps they should: Brown predicts that five to 10 satellites will be hit by Leonids meteoroids in the next storm.

The problem is compounded by the Leonids' extreme speed. When objects collide at 160,000 mph they don't fragment, they liquefy, surrendering ions from their molecular structure and creating an electrically charged plasma cloud.

At hypervelocity, even a collision with a tiny meteor can produce a charged plasma cloud that permanently disrupts a satellite's electronic system, effectively destroying it.

Such a collision has already claimed a victim, during a comparatively tame Perseid meteor shower. In 1993, a Perseid hit the European space satellite Olympus at hypervelocity, inducing a slew of electrical problems that ultimately rendered it useless.

NASA's Johnson admits that the space industry doesn't quite know what to expect from the Leonids: "This is a situation we've never knowingly experienced before," he says. But he downplays the threat: "Our gut feeling is that it's not going to be that much of a problem.... It looks like during a 12-hour period on November 17, your spacecraft might experience meteoroid exposures that are equivalent to a few months in space."

Nevertheless, he says, the space shuttle will not fly during the meteor storm, and satellites -- government and industry alike -- will be re-positioned to minimize their cross section relative to the incoming meteoroids. With a boom of new telecommunciations satellites headed skyward over the next five years, engineers are calculating ways to stay out of the meteors' path.

But beyond that, NASA's Nick Johnson head of Orbital Debris Research says, bowing before the power of nature like a San Franciscan at the San Andreas fault, "There's not a whole lot you can do about it."

( Reuters/Wired )

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:43 - ID#31868)
JACK: I think that people know very little of the financial arena and even less when it comes to the environment. There was an interesting article written about 15 or so years ago. Entitled the "Greening of the Reds."

I read it and thought it an interesting viewpoint and forgot about it. Then I saw the October 4th Annual Environmental Media Awards. I took great interest as the keynote address was delivered by the President of Greencross International. None other than the venerable Mr. Mikhail Gorbachev.

I am reminded by one passage of his elucidations which struck within me a chord, reminding me of the above mentioned article. and I quote...

Ladies and gentlemen, I have had to make significnt changes in my schedule of travel 6,000 miles to you join you here on this wonderful night in Los Angeles. I will not hide from you the fact that I was under very strong pressure from a group comprising Diane Meyer Simon, Ted Turner and Jane ( Fonda ) , with a final push coming from Mrs. Gorbachev. It was a kind of international conspiracy to bring me here. I know something about conspiracies. This time I decided to yield to that conspiracy - for the first time - because that was a coalition which no president in the world would have been able to resist.

The line which really got me was: "The time has come for mankind to accept the wise philosophy of Native Americans."

I know a little about the environment, and I know a little about conspiracies. If you wanted to veil something behind a mission for the planet, and then spread the word to save peoples children, hmmm, the environment. Yeah, that's the ticket.

I wanna know when this clown traded in his borsht for creamed maize. What, one day he woke up, traded his red pajamas for green ones and decided to do all he could to make the west see the horror of their ways, and of course, he is in a great position to do so, because he has seen the light himself and is now devoid of his previously evil ways.

Hmmm, and just think, we can fund this movement through non-profit tax free devices, hmmm. O'tay, I am a changed man, my mission is to save the world from itself and people who used to think the way I did before I discovered organically grown corn.

Pardon the soapbox, please. But, I believe in clean air, water too. However, but not the way Uncle Al and Gorby have set it into motion. And I was never Fonda Jane, I just wonder how she ended up in bed with Ted.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:44 - ID#346140)
Vronsky: re "virtual trading floor charts" at
FYI: Good thing you've got that disclamer at the bottom. Data transmission is particularly spotty today :- )

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:49 - ID#252127)
200 million ounces annually, LGB say Never

The artical clarifies the typo, but I bet that at leadt half of those companies will have problems. It's a fact the many mines fail regardless of metal prices. Just the same as in any business, we have tobe careful.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:51 - ID#269409)
Apocolyptic Space Comm. article
And yet another Apocolyptic scenario re potential disastor with the future of satellites in space, which would occur AFTER we become virtually dependant on them alone for our communications. ( Teledesic, Golbalstar, Iridium, et al intend to ultimately REAPLCE landlines and land based Microwave Communications )

The Satellite Boom: Things that go bump in space

By Craig Bicknell

SAN FRANCISCO ( Wired ) - Two lonely satellites drift through the vastness of space, alien to wonder at their starry surroundings, imaginations bound by relentless orbital monotony and dreary earthly demands when -- doink! -- they glance off each other like blobs in a lava lamp. We're not alone!" they chatter in excited electronese, awakened. "Cosmic, man."

Reality check: Bummer, dude. Contrary to the impression left in many minds by years of media clips featuring astronauts gaily bobbling floating milk globs, satellites don't drift, they haul ass -- the average closing speed between objects in orbit is 22,000 miles per hour.

At that speed, a collision is no gravity-free moment, it's a metal-vaporizing cataclysm. And with more than 8,500 objects -- satellites and satellite-spawned debris ( read: junkyard ) -- the size of a softball or bigger whizzing around the world, it's a chance encounter whose chances have grown increasingly large. They're not alone, all right.

"Since the 1950s, people have been launching things with a total disregard for space debris issues," says prominent satellite insurance broker Alden Richards, "I think there are going to be collisions - what we don't know is how many and when."

Actually, it's already happened.

Just last year, a French satellite lost its electronic life in a warp-speed wipeout with a suitcase-sized chunk of typical space junk: a discarded rocket stage, the remnant of 40 feverish years of post-Sputnik space-racing that's littered near-earth space with roughly 1,300 rocket bodies, some 6,700 springs, bolts, explosion fragments, and dead satellites; and a random assortment of screwdrivers and other miscellaneous jetsam. Not to mention the 600-plus active satellites.

Just weeks ago, a US military satellite missed drilling the hapless Mir space station ( mercy killing? ) by less than 500 yards.

Space just isn't so ... spacious anymore.

Enter Teledesic ... and Iridium, and Globalstar, and Celestri, and SkyBridge, and on and on. In all, almost a thousand new satellites are scheduled for launch in the next 10 years - most of them into low-earth orbit, where the debris swarm is the most dense. Are we in danger of over-seating the celestial arena? Some say we already have.

In 1990, a pair of German scientists at the Technical University of Braunschweig, Peter Eichler and Dietrich Rex, released a study claiming that space debris had already reached a deadly critical mass. They reckoned that it would only be a matter of time before a catastrophic collision created an enormous, spreading debris cloud that in turn spawned further collisions, and so on, until certain orbital altitudes became an impassable buzz-saw of shrieking metal.

It's a theory called the Cascade, and it scares the bejesus out of a lot people. "In an extreme, apocalyptic case," says Steven Aftergood from the Federation of American Scientists, "it could cause a kind of planetary quarantine, in which much of Earth's orbit would be rendered totally unusable, and if we don't take steps to mitigate it, the extreme could come to pass."

But Nick Johnson, head of NASA's Orbital Debris Research Project and the world's arch-guru of debris analysis, downplays the threat of a catastrophic chain reaction: "We do not ascribe to that particular assessment. We believe it's a long-term potential, one that is not inevitable, and is not near term."

Johnson's not critical of Eichler and Rex -- Eichler now works for him -- but of their outdated debris-field prediction models, circa 1990. "The discipline has matured greatly since then -- they had a very low-fidelity model, and they got a very low-quality result."

Still, the 1990 assessment was based on 1990 debris levels, before Teledesic and the gang burst on the scene with their bustling LEO constellations; in 1997, there's a lot of new heavenly metal to factor into critical-mass equations. Or maybe not: Johnson's not convinced that a sudden increase in orbital mass is forthcoming.

"I think hope springs eternal in the human breast -- no way in the world do I believe all those satellites are going to go up," he says.

Even if they do, Johnson says, they won't contribute significantly to the debris problem. NASA has actively educated the industry to the threat of space junk, and it's banking on the strength of economic self-interest -- companies don't want mega-million-dollar satellites flying through their own trash -- to serve as a potent self-policing force. Indeed, many companies such as Teledesic intend to take aggressive action to minimize future debris-generation - rocket stages will deorbit, lens caps and other potential jetsam will be tethered to the satellites, and the satellites themselves will deorbit at mission's end, burning up harmlessly in the atmosphere.

"What's the net effect on the environment? Essentially zero," Johnson says. "Now, will everybody do that? I don't know."

Aye, there's the rub.

"Everyone says that everyone's working in everybody's interest, but it'd be a lot better if there were an international decree," says Alden Richards, CEO of Space Machine Advisors, a satellite insurance brokerage. "I don't think there is self-policing."

Richards and others in the bottom-line based, risk-minded realm of satellite insurance fear that in the scramble for a chunk of the trillion-dollar telecom market companies may let short-term interest outweigh long-term space citizenship, trimming costs by eliminating expensive deorbit and debris minimization measures. These insurers see international regulation as the only remedy.

NASA's Johnson acknowledges that certain companies might not play by the rules, but he doesn't want to see competition quashed by heavy-handed environmental regulation spawned in the bowels of UN bureaucracy. "We're trying to be as unobtrusive as possible. We prefer to give the industry the chance to regulate itself."

Other scientists agree: "Debris has been an issue of debate at COPUOS, the UN Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, but that committee never accomplishes anything useful," says scientist Aftergood, "It's a hideous way to try to determine international space policy."

Even if the UN were to issue any sort of ruling, it wouldn't be soon. The COPUOS scientific and technical team is in the midst of a three-year review of the space debris issue.

"Our position is that we don't have a problem yet, so we're not looking for a solution," says Johnson, the US delegate to COPUOS.

( Reuters/Wired )

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:54 - ID#269409)
You're right Jack. I added three 000's!! Unforgivable for an Engineer. And I agree, invsetment is one thing, production is something else. See our IPMCF discussion of yesterday

(Tue Oct 21 1997 13:56 - ID#285233)
JLM- must be related to the big $$$ lawsuit against TVX re. their Greek mine.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:00 - ID#7568)

That was no typo. Sept 98's are alive and well. So are Dec 98 if you are so inclined.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:00 - ID#31868)
JACK: I apologize, an error in my post to you, October 17th, 1994

(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:10 - ID#7568)

I have no strong convictions with regard to anything over a short term time frame. Selling puts, gets one into the uncomfortable position of having to 'manage' a position. Suppose for example that the people gunning for John Henry's silver position are able to get him to liquidate. Silver might decline 20 cents in a day. What would I do then assuming I had a large amount of naked puts? It is a position I don't wan't to contemplate. Owning calls, which obviously comes with a price, allows one to make a bet with all the risk known. Additionally, and of far greater importance is the upside leverage. There is a real possibility of silver doubling in the next 6 - 12 months. In this case the calls that we bought this morning will go up something like 35x. To get this kind of gain through the insurance game of selling premium we would have to expose ourselves to ruinous risk. It is not a game to play. When selling insurance the method is to sell lots of little policies not one big one.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:10 - ID#251213)
Hello DA:

I found them and your trade.

I was wondering why would your prefer options $1.25 out of the money to a straight futures postion? Less risk? more gain?

Are you looking for $10 silver?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:10 - ID#364147)
@ EB
EB!!!! package just arrived ( hand delivered by the RCMP ) they wanna know who this EB dude the thumb screws on me ( OUUCH ) I won't tell..never.......alright...enuf...I can't take it no more....EB Ernie Banks ( Mr.Cub ) ...alright already!!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:10 - ID#246224)
LGB - You have FINALLY found a bad thing to warn us about. I bet you've been scouring the net for months just to find a piece of bad news you could parley ( sincerly ) on this forum. Way to go, dude! Now to turn an honest question ( from the Y2K issue ) upon your own industries' head: How could you guys knowingly do this? You were aware this would be a problem and you went ahead and did the implementation without a second thought. You bunch 'a scoundrals you. If this hits one of the PrimeStar sats that I get my feed from you are toast ;- )

(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:11 - ID#252127)

tolerant1; it's amusing how these clowns use the word "children" so openly. It's almost the "dead ringer"; that tells where they are really coming from.
When a lumberjack or someother unemployed dude goes off the far end and harms his own family, then the word children is no longer amusing.
I really feel that these power brokers, give not one damn for anyone, but themselves.

George Cole
(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:14 - ID#42953)
DA: I still think that a dollar rally to 150 yen would initially be very bearish for gold. The sequence of events following such a rally probably would be extremely bullish. But there would be a lot of pain before that gain.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:15 - ID#263259)
flameproof dwelling
John, re your 1:55 post: Yes, to be forewarned is to be forearmed. One of the big values of this newsgroup is the variety of informative links that have accumulated. I'm going to repost this one for the daytime crowd.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:21 - ID#2082)
I have been reading this more and more on the cyber-pages of Kitco.

I would not bet on it... hedge myself...hmmmmmm...sounds kinky...

(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:23 - ID#7568)

Yes, I am looking for $10 silver. The calls are purchased as part of an overall program. Ninety percent of the trading that we do is systematic and trend following in nature and is the straight buying and selling of futures and forwards. The remaining 10% of our lives is spent looking for possible big payoff trades with predefined risks. Silver happens to fall into the category. If the trades hits we will have been lucky. I have no special inside knowledge of the silver market. The signs that are currently out there are for all to see. There is no dispute that the market is in deficit and has been for about 5 years. Lease rates are tight for obvious reasons. The big question is how much in the way of stockpiles are left and whether anyone will make a play for them. I happen to believe that a play will be launched sooner rather than later and given the structure of the options market the results could be staggering. There is no doubt that this is rank speculation, but informed speculation is all about making bets where the odds are in your favor. Obviously the odds do not favor silver doubling in 9 months but I believe they are much better than the about 1 chance in 50 which is in the ballpark of how they are being priced in the options market. If we hit, it will make for a great story and some happy clients.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:46 - ID#269409)
What's that you say Allen?? You didn't find anything to "worry about" in my list yesterday at 17:12?? The tip o' the Iceburg list? OK, to answer your question as to why this industry is proceeding balls to the wall with nary a thought for the future...just like many industries, it's Moola.

The new concept in COmm. satellites is to abandon the old tried and true Geostationary 22,000 miles in space, fixed satellite, and instead go to fast moving Low Earth constellations of dozens or hundreds that will whiz over our heads continuously.

There is intense competition to be "first" with a sucessful LEO ( Low Earth Orbit ) constlellation of Satellites, because there are literally several billion dollars per year in potential revenue for each sucessful constellation, that is for the FIRST couple players anyway!

Some of the more ambitious programs like Teledesic, plan on putting up 100 + satellites ( which will handle internet communications I might add, replacing landlines ) . Teledesic is being financed primarily by, guess who, Bill Gates Microsoft! A guy with NO background in Satellite or space technology, but an enormous understated EGO and need to dominate all things Billionairish. You think Gates cares about potential future calamities? If her did, he would've made Windows 95 half way foolproof before thousands of us bought it and crashed our systems with it!

As to the rest of the industry, I used to be in defense avionics ( Fighter Aircraft Electronic Warfare ) , and shifted into Space Industry when defense budgets began declining. I have been SHOCKED ever since to find that the controls, quality level, relaibility analysis, and state of the art re technology on space hardware and design, are virtually NON existant compared to what we did in the defense business. Ostensibly because we were dealing with a live pilot in the Fighter Aircraft bus. whereas here, we just have to put up a bird that can broadcast & receive signals.

The LEO constellations that will be whizzing over our heads, are an unproven, but probably workable technology, but as an insider I can tell you, NO ONE is giving much thought beyond meeting the productionc schedlues and trying to be "first", or as close to it as possible. They want that market share and future be damned!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:47 - ID#2082)
D.A. - It is very true what you say. You manage a LARGER account and when you buy larger amounts of something it would be more wise to know the risk, as you say. And as to the style of 'play' your strategy would tend to favor the longer term 'player'. My strategy may favor the smaller fish. Besides I like the bull spreads for silver. They have a better opp. for making $$ ( for me ) . Just keep an eye toward the endThanks for your posts...I'm diggin' when you are posting. btw, I HAVE noticed that you have NEVER been this adament before ( as best as I can recall ) . This says a great deal ( imnsho ) ...IT IS DULY NOTED...*******possible HOT-TIP for all 'unwashed' Kitcoites******* but remember his time frame...

And the OJ is altogether a wild ride. Those calls are STILL outrageuos due to IV's. In this case I DO favor MadDog's ( whoof ) strategy about selling puts ( bein naked ) . The downside risk is at historical lows, the growers/manufactururs will not sell for much less ( maybe ) , the season is getting later and later...and so on. March contract will most likely be the play, as you said a while back. Although I still have some good lookin' Jan's.

Let's continue to drink our fare share of forzen concentrate and wait for the will more crops...and IT will come ( shades of 'field of dreams' ) ;- )

Thanks D.A.
away...cause work calls

(Tue Oct 21 1997 14:56 - ID#286410)
wishing thought
Pena just reported a breakthough in fuel cells for electric cars. Will
be feasable and ready in 5 years.
Now I was just thinking about what impact this will have on oil-gold
finances in the short term. If true, with a short period of time compared
to before. They ( oil producers ) don't have the time as they once thought they had to store up there reserves in small amounts monthly.
If there time frame is shorten or threaten than this could be what Gold
has been waiting for in shooting up. I hope I am not reading to much into this but I do like to play out what might happen in my mind.
Any Comments ???????

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:03 - ID#318321)
Earl, Re: Maurice Strong. This guy is a piece of work. He is Canadian. After dropping out of high school he landed a job at the UN headquarters as a security guard. There he was befriended by the Rockafellers. He quickly rose through the ranks of the UN and ended up as a VP at some Canadian Oil Company. He is big in the environmental/new age movement and has a large ranch in Colorado that is some sort new age spritual center. He was the secretary general for the global environmental meeting in Rio a few years back. Recently he was named as the guy who is going to be in charge of the UN reorganization. He apparently has a net worth of over $1B. The christian right definately considers him one of the antichrist's top lieutenants. I bet he doesn't go to jail, to powerful.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:04 - ID#269409)
@Stalder, Fuel Cell Cars
Talk about Long shots Stalder! First of all, if they did perfect this in a way that brought us production vehicles it would be very bearish for Oil companies and oil prices and consumption would drop exponentially. This would be bearish for Gold not bullish. Secondly, at this point they forecast this technology as being so expensive as to be unworkable for the average consumer. ( At $125K a pop for a car like this ) .

Yes, something will come of this this technology, but it'll be longer than that before it affects Oil or other markets signifigantly. By the time they even start getting a MINOR slice of market share, perhaps in 5 to 8 years, our population and demand for Oil will have risen far beyond what the "savings" will be.

I understand this so called new "breakthrough" battery / fuel cell technology quite well incidentally as we have major programs working on it for our spacecraft. And it's been known for years. Watch out for media hype....

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:04 - ID#31868)
Mr. Greenspan confuses experts. This is news?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:09 - ID#346140)
Fuel cell yahoo search:

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:13 - ID#269409)
Greenspans Comments, Tolerant
Since you're link malfunctioned, I'll post the full text.

uesday October 21 2:22 PM EDT

Greenspan's need to ponder US data puzzles experts

By Isabelle Clary

NEW YORK, Oct 21 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's decision to reschedule his appearance before a
Congressional commmittee next week to ponder more U.S. data was increasingly puzzling to Fed watchers on Tuesday.

The Joint Economic Committee ( JEC ) of Congress announced on Monday that Greenspan had requested the postponement of a
scheduled October 28 hearing until the following day.

``There would be more economic data coming out by the 29th,'' a central bank spokesman told Reuters on Monday to explain
Greenspan's postponement request.

James Glassman, senior economist at Chase Securities, pointed out that postponing a hearing on monetary policy to ponder
economic data makes ``it sound like this ( Fed policy ) has become a hair-trigger decision.''

``The Fed's inaction and the economic evidence showed they were prepared for more patience. There is some indication that
growth is slowing and every reason to sit back and see what it is slowing to,'' noted Glassman, a former Fed economist. ``Now, it
looks that monetary policy is back to square one.''

The third-quarter employment cost index ( ECI ) is due out on October 28, the original date of Greenspan's address.

Greenspan and other Fed officials have often stated concern that tight labor markets may fuel inflation.

But requesting to postpone a Congressional appearance to pore over wage data put an unusual emphasis on labor markets from a
central bank whose mandate is to ensure full employment, analysts said.

Ken Bercuson, chief economist at SBC Warburg, said the ECI cannot be a reason to postpone an appearance in Congress ``because
it's such a backward looking indicator.''

``They look at the long-term underlying trend in the U.S. economy rather than on one single number,'' Bercuson added.

Greenspan's late October JEC hearing has been a source of speculation in the Treasury market for some time.

Market rumors circulated on October 14 that it was Greenspan -- and not the JEC -- who had actually called for the hearing,
possibly for some important announcement.

The JEC told Reuters that the hearing, then planned for October 28, had ``been in the works for a while'' because ``we're really
interested in monetary policy. What we're very interested in is what's happening at the Federal Reserve.''

Fed watcher pointed out the key element in any chairman's appearance is to display cohesion within the Fed.

Although the JEC said ``There was a scheduling problem on their ( Fed's ) part,'' Greenspan has no other known commitments on
October 28.

But the Beige Book of economic conditions compiled by the 12 district Fed banks -- one tool the Federal Open Market Committee
( FOMC ) uses in its decision-making -- comes out in the afternoon of October 29 only.

``The chairman does not want to be seen in conflict with the ( Fed ) banks or to look at odd with what the Beige Book says,'' said
chief economist David Resler at Nomura Securities International, a former Fed economist.

The Fed chairman usually has access to the Beige Book shortly before it is made public.

``Greenspan may want to have a conference call with the other ( FOMC ) committee members before appearing before the JEC,''
Resler explained. ``His speech writers may also need a little more time if he wants to reflect others' impressions.''

Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America, said Greenspan is known for being very thorough about the signals
he sends to financial markets.

``Greenspan feels he may be sending an important signal to the market and wants to make sure he has absorbed all the details
before he says anything,'' Moran explained. ``He may be soliciting the views of the others.''

Greenspan's request to move the hearing to October 29 shows he is not superstitious or fearful of roiling markets on the 68th
anniversary of the 1929 stock market crash, noted Chase's Glassman.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:19 - ID#401237)
MoreCredit Card Losses
Sears now CitiCorp.
The revenue growth was led by Citicorp's corporate banking and private banking services for the very wealthy, but it was dampened by low growth in credit cards. Net income from worldwide credit cards fell 15 percent, to $205 million from $241 million, primarily due to higher losses in the United States.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:22 - ID#318321)
More links on who M. Strong is:

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:22 - ID#269409)
@Puetz, Sheller, Oct.29 Doomsday
What? No comments on the metaphysical implications of Greenspan coyly, mysteriously rescheduling the JEC hearing for October 29? The anniversary of the 1929 crash?? Surely this could only mean a crash is now an absolute certainty as Greensoan makes his "surprise announcement" on the eve of the crash. I bet Greenie is being manipulated beyond his will ( quite unbeknownst to himself ) by forces "out there" who have decided that it's time......

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:23 - ID#364147)
@ headphones a blarin
Dow up 130 ( hmmmmmmmmm ) To all Canadians: What is the penalty for dog-naping

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:26 - ID#269409)
I told you guys to buy yesterday based on the "Puetz factor" , weren't you listening?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:28 - ID#286410)
Long Shots
LGB, I agree with you and thanks for your response.
I was just thinking in short term and the oil producers
useing Media Hype to there advantage to gain more gold

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:33 - ID#227238)
LSteve: Thanks. Strong, sounds like an interesting piece of work .... to anyone with a distorted sense of humor.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:33 - ID#269409)
@DOW, 87 till Now chart
Cool chart link on DOW from 1987 crash till now, us Engineer types like it because it's semilogarithmic.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:35 - ID#25883)
@...GSC and DA
Following recent comments about a 150 Yen and the Morgan Stanely suggested tank of the Nikkie 225, I would think that a devaluation of the Yen and a drop in the Nikkie would be counterbalanced by a sale of Jap owned US paper. I would think that a severe drop in Jap aseets values in relation to the dollar would form a bottom consolidation at the same time that US dollar denominated paper assets would be extending the financial ratios of normalcy beyond the current high mark.

In this scenario I would think that the risk of owning US paper would be higher than owning Jap paper. Since the Japs own considerable US paper it would seem reasonable that a healthy portion would be exchanged for Jap paper if not by reason of fundamental analysis then possibly at the insistence ( moral suasion ) of the Jap Ministry of Economics or BoJ.

I am not certain how gold 'should' react to this possible scenario as the CBs seem to have a managed program underway that could only be thwarted by a retail investment mania in physical gold.


(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:36 - ID#285233)
Problems???Greenspan's need to ponder US data puzzles experts
Tuesday October 21 2:22 PM EDT

Greenspan's need to ponder US data puzzles experts

By Isabelle Clary

NEW YORK, Oct 21 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's decision to reschedule his appearance
before a Congressional commmittee next week to ponder more U.S. data was increasingly puzzling to Fed watchers on

The Joint Economic Committee ( JEC ) of Congress announced on Monday that Greenspan had requested the
postponement of a scheduled October 28 hearing until the following day.

``There would be more economic data coming out by the 29th,'' a central bank spokesman told Reuters on Monday to
explain Greenspan's postponement request.

James Glassman, senior economist at Chase Securities, pointed out that postponing a hearing on monetary policy to
ponder economic data makes ``it sound like this ( Fed policy ) has become a hair-trigger decision.''

``The Fed's inaction and the economic evidence showed they were prepared for more patience. There is some indication
that growth is slowing and every reason to sit back and see what it is slowing to,'' noted Glassman, a former Fed
economist. ``Now, it looks that monetary policy is back to square one.''

The third-quarter employment cost index ( ECI ) is due out on October 28, the original date of Greenspan's address.

Greenspan and other Fed officials have often stated concern that tight labor markets may fuel inflation.

But requesting to postpone a Congressional appearance to pore over wage data put an unusual emphasis on labor markets
from a central bank whose mandate is to ensure full employment, analysts said.

Ken Bercuson, chief economist at SBC Warburg, said the ECI cannot be a reason to postpone an appearance in Congress
``because it's such a backward looking indicator.''

``They look at the long-term underlying trend in the U.S. economy rather than on one single number,'' Bercuson added.

Greenspan's late October JEC hearing has been a source of speculation in the Treasury market for some time.

Market rumors circulated on October 14 that it was Greenspan -- and not the JEC -- who had actually called for the
hearing, possibly for some important announcement.

The JEC told Reuters that the hearing, then planned for October 28, had ``been in the works for a while'' because ``we're
really interested in monetary policy. What we're very interested in is what's happening at the Federal Reserve.''

Fed watcher pointed out the key element in any chairman's appearance is to display cohesion within the Fed.

Although the JEC said ``There was a scheduling problem on their ( Fed's ) part,'' Greenspan has no other known
commitments on October 28.

But the Beige Book of economic conditions compiled by the 12 district Fed banks -- one tool the Federal Open Market
Committee ( FOMC ) uses in its decision-making -- comes out in the afternoon of October 29 only.

``The chairman does not want to be seen in conflict with the ( Fed ) banks or to look at odd with what the Beige Book
says,'' said chief economist David Resler at Nomura Securities International, a former Fed economist.

The Fed chairman usually has access to the Beige Book shortly before it is made public.

``Greenspan may want to have a conference call with the other ( FOMC ) committee members before appearing before the
JEC,'' Resler explained. ``His speech writers may also need a little more time if he wants to reflect others' impressions.''

Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America, said Greenspan is known for being very thorough about
the signals he sends to financial markets.

``Greenspan feels he may be sending an important signal to the market and wants to make sure he has absorbed all the
details before he says anything,'' Moran explained. ``He may be soliciting the views of the others.''

Greenspan's request to move the hearing to October 29 shows he is not superstitious or fearful of roiling markets on the
68th anniversary of the 1929 stock market crash, noted Chase's Glassman.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:37 - ID#269409)
U.S. Debt
Latest debt figures show we're well past 5 Trillion! This is anotehr great link from Privateer showing history of debt growth.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:42 - ID#269409)
Another Gold Site
Occurs to me I should post the URL of the home page, probably posted here before sometime, but I just came across the site a few days ago and found it interesting as to some of the basics, commentary, etc.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:44 - ID#401237)
Utilities approaching all time high. Could be an interesting point in time - interest rates?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:45 - ID#251283)
Thanks steady for you comment on TVX in answer to my question.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:47 - ID#31868)
LGB: Thank you.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 15:54 - ID#269409)
Silver Price prediction
Just a layman, not an "Expert" at "TA" but I have performed my own analysis, based on several dozen factors, weighted and prioritized, and am now ready to predict silver price move in 1998, so here goes.

Silver WILL hit $7.80 minimum target in 1998, and end the year in a trading range between $7.00 to $8.00. There is a 10% chance that it will reach $10 to $12.00 during a cornering play by the "big boys".

Will I publish my formula for prediction here? Probably not based on all the LGB haters who tear into me no matter what I post stating that I "Don't know anything" ( just very LUCKY in my trades ) . However, suffice it to say I tried to factor in all the MAJOR elements that will potentially affect price, properly weighted, compared against historical behaviour of silver since 1974, adjusted all for potential "Unknowns" , also weighted based on several varied likely scenarios.

Go Silver, go Platinum, and a LITTLE cheer for Gold ( which will lag behind BOTH the whites in percentage 5 years or so )

(Tue Oct 21 1997 16:00 - ID#364147)
LGB: I was listening duuuude....but unlike you I didn't totally ( except for your own co. stock ) exit the stock market and still have a substantial amount of stock in DRIP ( XON,FRO,SBC,PNY,BGC,CNG,TRP,HE and SIG ) ....FRO is my largest holding and look @ her fly today!!! oh Yeah, forgot I own alot of ABX....

(Tue Oct 21 1997 16:08 - ID#269409)
@Ted , Puetz
Excellent Ted! Glad you made gains. I made about $3200 today on my little "Puetz factor" play. ( OK, OK, I admit it, there were a couple OTHER reasons for the short term play with a lil bit of my 401 K..but maybe the Puetz factor was the final straw that put me in! ) I'll probably sell on tomorrow's close unless I see some major news to make me think twice. DOW 8100 my target and I se on the close we're not far. 139 point gain, not bad for a "crashing" DOW hmm??

(Tue Oct 21 1997 16:11 - ID#31868)
TO ALL: I would like to restate something I said yesterday. The Goldbug and it's editor are an excellent source for understanding silver and the silver market. For those of you that wish to learn more he can be found on the site. At the bottom of the page in each of his articles you wil find previous months articles. I think the current article covers First Silver Reserve

Another good place to look can be found at the gold newsletter site: - Article entitled Contrarian Opportunity, the link should ( fingers crossed ) take you right to the article.

I hope these links work betten than my last attempt. And I hope you find them useful if you are unaware of them.

The Wichita Lineman
(Tue Oct 21 1997 16:16 - ID#374200)
@LGB, silver play strategy
I have similar feeling about the supply tightening up for silver , and the outlook is good. Let me add this: in my juniors, many are gold/silver exploration properties, so a rise in silver should do some good for junior golds that explore in mexico. Several of these on vancouver. Further, a rise in silver will also help gold through the 'sympathy effect', so what is good for silver is good for gold too. I hope !

(Tue Oct 21 1997 16:22 - ID#269409)
@Witchita, Silver
yes, the only thing that bothers me about silver price analysis is that the fundamentals of supply / consumption, trends, stocks to disappear in 2 years or less, historic charts & averages, gold/silver price ratio, increasing 3rd world consumtion, and all the many other major factors is that they are SO obvious that I can't understand why no major speculation / accumulation seems to be taking place among the "Big boys" yet? What do they know? Digital photography scare is a straw dog.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 16:30 - ID#7568)

The answer to your question may lie in 60MM ounce drawdown in Comex stocks over the last 4 months. The play may be happening right before your eyes.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 16:30 - ID#31868)
The Outlook for and

Inter-Relationship Between Gold and Silver

Presented by:

Michael A. Simon


I have been asked to speak on several aspects of the gold and silver markets today. I will address CPM Group's analysis of the gold and silver markets, outlining our analysis of where supply, demand, and prices have trended in recent years. I also will outline where we expect supply, demand, and prices to head in 1996 and beyond. Separately, I want to discuss the historical relationship between gold and silver.

Allow me to start with this last point.

The Historical Relationship Between Gold and Silver

Obviously, gold and silver are inextricably intertwined with each other. The metals clearly are related, in terms of physical properties, uses, and price movements.

The relationship is not as simple as many would believe, however. And, in terms of prices, there are no valid reasons to believe that the prices will ever do anything more than move tangentially together.

You will hear that the gold/silver price ratio ought to be 16 to 1, or 32 to 1, or some other supposedly magical number. In fact, there are no statistical bases for such conclusions. The amazing thing is that investors and dealers still trade based on the theory that the gold/silver ratio ought to be some specific number.

As my first slide shows, the gold/silver ratio has traded between 16:1 and 100:1 over the past two decades. There has been no consistent pattern. The ratio fell sharply in 1979, for reasons I will touch on shortly. The ratio then rose throughout much of the 1980s, reflecting the greater weakness in the silver market and the stronger interest in gold from jewelers and investors during this time. Since the beginning of 1993, the ratio has fallen some. After reaching a peak of 100:1 ( this slide shows monthly averages, which did not quite achieve this level, but on a daily basis the ratio did in fact hit this peak ) , the ratio has fallen as low as 70:1. This reflects the improved market conditions in silver, and the fact that the silver market has been tighter than has the physical gold market.

Historically, there were some times when the ratio was important. In the early 18th century, Sir Isaac Newton determined that the ratio of the price of gold to that of silver should be 16 to 1. Except for periodic suspensions of the metallic monetary systems, the gold/silver ratio stood at this level until the early 20th century.

The silver market was devastated in the Great Depression of the 1930s, leading to a point where this ratio expanded to 100:1.

For much of the time from 1945 until 1968, gold prices were fixed in dollar terms, while the U.S. Treasury worked to maintain silver prices below the $1.29 level at which it made sense to refine your silver coins for their metal content.

Since 1972, when gold and silver both were free of such government interference, prices have traded between 16:1 and 100:1, as I said earlier.

You will notice the dip down to 16:1 in 1979. This was the time when Nelson Bunker Hunt and his brother were active in silver. Mr. Hunt felt strongly that Sir Isaac Newton had been on to something real when he set the ratio in British coinage at 16:1. Therefore, Mr. Hunt traded gold and silver on the supposition or theory that the price ratio had to move toward this "natural" level. Since he had sufficient funds and influence in the market, his prediction became a self-fulfilling promise. However, he bankrupted himself in the process. Thus, the move to 16:1 was short-lived.

Following this incident, the silver market was in great disarray, and took the better part of the 1980s to re-balance itself. During this time, the ratio eroded sharply.

If you asked someone from CPM Group where we thought the gold/silver ratio would be in the future, we would develop a projection of gold prices, based on gold's supply/demand conditions and the underlying economy, then we would develop a silver price projection, based on silver's fundamentals. We would divide the gold forecast by the silver forecast, and give you our projection of the gold/silver ratio.

What is our forecast? We expect the ratio to drop to between 50 and 60, from the 70 - to - 90 range that has held for the past five years.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 16:38 - ID#287207)
Somebody in the last 24-48 hours noted an analysis of gold mines they had written for Vronsky's site. Please repost the info so I can go read it. Thanks.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 16:48 - ID#31868)
TO ALL: you should find this interesting.


DAILY MARKET REPORT/For Current Quotes Call 1-800-869-5115


10/21/97Open+/- Prev CloseClose+/-Prev CloseGold









MARKET UPDATE ( 10/21/97 ) AM----- Gold was down slightly again on the COMEX open after closing lower in overseas trading. Although European and Australian traders appeared to be sellers, this was offset somewhat by Japanese buying in Tokyo. Yesterday, we reported that Comex gold warehouse stocks were down sharply on Friday's report ( - 90,000 ounces ) . The London Interbank gold bullion lending rate rose overnight on strong demand, and weaker supply. It's over 3% again at 3.15%. In the past, the rate going over 3% has signaled rising prices. Silver stocks also took a dramatic turn downward ( - 1.25 million ounces ) . Rumors continue to circulate that much of the buying in the silver market is originating in the Middle East and there have been confirmed deliveries to that region.

Yesterday, we reported that the London stock market was jolted by news that the Blair government has misgivings about early EMU entry. The European bourses as a group are shaky not just about London's hesitancy with respect to a single currency, but because of the gravitational pull of higher German interest rates forcing other countries to raise as well. Right on the heels of this announcement, Southeast Asian markets are in turmoil again. Yesterday and today, markets from Malaysia to Hong Kong fell about 3% on average. People took to the street in Thailand in protest over the chaos that has hit the stock, bond, real estate and currency markets. Today's edition of The Financial Times ( London ) has a full front-page story.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 16:52 - ID#241277)
Gold/Oil/SHEIK Abu Bekr/LBMA
To All ( esp. JTF, ANOTHER, Earl, Red Baron ) ...The recent article "Covert Gold Cost of Oil" by Sheik Abu Bekr raises some interesting points about gold and oil.

First, if the article is correct that the Saudis and other Arab nations have been receiving gold bullion as payment ( as well as military hardware ) for oil and for favours rendered in keeping the price of gold from rising ( in spite of projection production peaks as early as 1999 ) then where can we look for evidence of gold showing up in the official statistics for the Middle East. Does the World Gold Council statistics provide such evidence that shows an increasing or constant flow of gold into the Middle-East coffers since 1987? Evidence might resolve on of the most nagging questions: where is the gold being sold by CBs going? Perhaps we have found the missing piece of the puzzle.

Second, if true, the US would have a particular interest in coordinating the funnelling of gold bullion into the Middle East in order to constrain the price of oil from rising to $40/barrel as it should be given the demand/supply situation in crude oil and maximization of Middle Eastern utilization capacities. The US wants to maintain the illusion that oil is not becoming increasingly scarce in order to avoid price inflation at home thus exploding the market bubble.....they want to avoid a 1973-74 crisis at all cost. Stability in oil prices may have come through past transactions of US treasuries to the Middle East in exchange for "price stability favours" but the Arabs increasingly have requested the real store of value: bullion. Thus the Americans may be actually orchestrating the gold sales of other CBs in the interests of "global oil price stability" objectives convincing the Australians and lesser players to sell their gold for the short term objective of containing a price rise in oil that the Saudis are under increasing pressure at home ( Islamic pressures ) to let go ( as the Sheik suggests ) .. Note that "officially" the major gold holders, the US, Switzerland, Germany and France ( and most certainly England ) have hung on to their CB supplies while other lesser players have been "convinced" to sell under the ruse that "gold no longer plays the hedge or security roll it once did."

Third, the LBMA is most certainly a critical player brokering the exchange of gold for oil trading ( the Red Baron's plethora of LBMA exposes points to this reality ) . Recent revelations of daily volumes of 30 million ounces of gold trading daily at the LBMA in London ( twice South Africa's annual gold production ) may point to the increasing pressure on appeasing the Saudis ( and other Arab nations ) with gold to keep oil prices in check. The Rothschilds and other merchant banking players with an interest in gold ( probably the Morgan Stanley group as well ) are also involved in these daily deals. Indeed, a line is most certainly drawn between Washington/New York, London, South Africa and the Middle East ( not necessarily in that order ) .

Fourth, based on superb analysis by Deutsche Morgan Grenfell on the relative purchasing power of the US dollar in terms of gold is worth analyzing in the context of the gold to oil price ratio. If the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar in terms of gold bullion has declined to a ratio of less than 0.100 in 1997 compared to gold's purchasing power of 2.000 then this suggests that the US dollar is grossly overvalued in terms of scarce resource ( gold ) , that gold is grossly undervalued as may be oil.

Fifth, the ultimate irony is that the laws of demand and supply on scarce commodities like oil and gold have been "nakedized" or "nullified" by an illusion that has elevated an infinitely plentiful fiat currency ( the US dollar ) to mythical proportions. It is in this kind of world in which we transact in the so-called "market."

(Tue Oct 21 1997 16:58 - ID#258427)
What I do not understand ... in the face of all this bullish silver talk ...and I believe that the fundamentals are correct ...WHY IS SILVER JUST MILLING AROUND? Who, In their right mind, would sell it down from 5.30 to 4.95 as has happened in the last week. I believe the bullish fundamentals ... but cannot understand what is happening "on the floor" Can anyone help?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 17:46 - ID#25883)
@....Gold Bears should be happy with this comment
The title to this article is misleading.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 17:47 - ID#25883)
@...try again

Elmer Fudd
(Tue Oct 21 1997 17:55 - ID#179295)
@Looney Tunes
Awticle on Gowd is bewy bewy Beawish..

(Tue Oct 21 1997 18:26 - ID#269409)
@Big Beaver, Apocolyptic events
Beaver re your 06:36. Dinosaurs became extinct 5000 years ago? The earth titlted on it's axis at the same time? Disastors are looming based on this guy's dream? You SURE the author wasn't Mike Sheller writing under pseudonym?

Richard Burke
(Tue Oct 21 1997 18:27 - ID#411318)
@Look at FSR
tolerant1: You referenced First Silver Reserve ( FSR - VSE ) earlier. As you say, Goldbug likes it very much. I do too. I have known in a business capacity Tim Ryan the President of FSR for almost thirty years. He is a first class individual. My own background is in Venture Capital investment sponsored by a number of major Canadian financial institutions.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 18:36 - ID#263259)
silver is an industrial metal
LGB re 15:54 post: I would wonder how you handled end user cost factors in your complex and arcane analysis? ( Too esoteric for us mere mortals? : ) )

(Tue Oct 21 1997 18:51 - ID#31868)
Richard Burke: The Goldbug consistently and constantly points to sound management, your comments reinforce my respect for the Goldbug and furthers my belief in FSR as a sound investment.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 19:04 - ID#57232)
@Work - Oil,gold and US dollars
Zardoz: Saw your 16:52 post today. Please take a look at my post 10/20/97 23:31. My take on all of the LBMA and Middle East oil/gold business is that the overriding force behind what may ( underline may ) be happening is a desire of the "powers that be" to keep world oil prices constant, until new sources of oil have been developed. This includes the Rothschilds,etc, who would want stability. Please note that I have no proof for anything on this post -- but I'm hoping that we can at least unravel some of the dynamics for all of our benefit.
Consider the commotion during the 1970's oil crisis. If oil prices were allowed to rise rapidly now as they did in the 70's, we would have a world-wide recession ( at the least ) . Since oil is priced in dollars, a good way to keep the status quo is to strengthen the dollar when oil prices go up. Given the world-wide situation with the dollar being the defacto world's currency, the world's central banks might very well be unanimous on the need to keep the price of oil ( in dollars ) constant. In the past, a country that wanted to support its currency sold gold. Now with derivatives, and the LBMA, new methods are available. I think the basic idea - though no one at Kitco has shown exactly how - was that the Central Banks temporarily "sold" gold in some manner, pushing up the dollar, thus reducing the price of oil. The side benefit of this was that the price of gold went down, but the Central Banks did not have to report gold sales. Now with gold cheaper, and the dollar stronger, oil producers, ( or anyone, not just Middle East producers ) could feel comfortable holding dollars, or buy cheap gold. When news of this manipulation got out, others stepped in and pushed the price of gold down even more, before the new oil suplies were ready, and started to buy up all the available non-Central Bank gold, forcing the Central banks to sell real gold to maintain the status quo.
All of this is may be linked to the current Central Bank gold sales, ostensibly for fixing balance sheets for entry into the ECU/EMU. What better way to keep the gold market under control, than to have the Central Banks sell gold? It is not how much they sell, but the mere psychological fact that they "do not consider it worth keeping". If you look at historical cycles of Central Bank gold sales, you will see that this sort of thing has happened several times.
Thus what I am saying is that we really do not have a conspiracy, but rather that the interests of the Central Banks and the Middle East oil producers have coincided, and that a "wild card" was introduced when others started to buy up all the cheap gold. I think we are approaching the end of the current "cheap gold" phase of the cycle between "hard" and "paper" assets.

I hope this post is helpful -- the US dollar is strong for the same reason we have a stock market bull -- faith. I have not seen the Deutsche Morgan Grenfell study of the purchasing power of the dollar, and am very interested in seeing it. My analysis is also that the dollar is overvalued, just based on a careful review of the US CPI for the last 100 years. My very conservative estimate is that gold should be approximately $600/oz. This value might be much higher if one includes all of the dollars that are currently outside the USA, used as reserves to support other currencies, and the recent rapid growth of M3.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 19:14 - ID#269409)
@223, Not Esoteric, Quite Mortal
Well 223, you didn't read my post carefully. Firstly, my analysis is not esoteric compared to some, merely my own witches brew formula ( no credit given to SHeller ) , which includes factors that I consider most important. AS to end user costs, etc., let's remember that the majority of industrial end use is in the photography market, and secondarily the jewelry fab. market. I did add in factors relating to each, but with Digital photography coming online bigtime here, being MORE than offset by rising convemtional demand in developing nations, it's quite difficult to project this accurately. Big end users like Kodak have long term accumulation strategies and have been active buyers of late.

Re my overall predictive analysis, I stated plainly, I'm just a mere mortal "Layman", and if I lay it out in detail I'll just come under a withering assault by the anti LGB "who Knows nothing" forces. You know, the "experts" who have been right OFF target for the past few years straight.

But I did think it would be interesting to make the price/range prediction public in advance. I'm going to be looking for others to do the same. I consider my estimate a conservative one. There's always a chance of a major world financial, energy, or warfare crises, in which case the numbers will be a lot higher. I factored those possibilities in to the prediction of course, but with a weighting percentage that's very small proportional to such fundamental issues as the declining COMEX stock, current mining production estimates, projected demand, etc etc.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 19:24 - ID#269409)
One more comment re your End User question. Big users like Kodak were really not seriously affected/disrupted, even when silver soared to the $20 to $50 range in 1980, but they WOULD Have been if it had stayed there. They had large accumalted supplies and long term purchase agreements with producers. One byproduct of the price increase was advanced silver reclamation technology which lowered their costs ultimatley and became bearish for silver over the next few years as this added substantially to the already burgeoning oversupply that was created by the huge price rise.

This type of thing will always happen when a readily producable commodity like silver soars too high. That's why my projections have a high end limit much lower than some of the "Sensationalist" analysts might give. There's till a lot of Junk silver coin, jewelry, industrial castoff's, etc. that'd come out of the woodwork in a hurry should prices ever spike up that high again.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 19:26 - ID#364147)
@ capebreton
PM report:PRECIOUS METALS: Futures closed the day mixed Tuesday as
platinum gained on rising concerns over Russia's export policy.

Negotiations between consumers and Russian exporters for next year's
supply of palladium and platinum are due in December. Traders expect
choppy trading in both the white metals until some agreement is reached.

Gold meanwhile traded in a narrow range and didn't lose too much value
despite strength in the dollar and the stock market.

December gold fell 90 cents to $323.90 an ounce; December silver shed
four cents to $4.978 an ounce; January platinum jumped $4.30 to
$425.50 an ounce.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 19:30 - ID#223146)
I have a question for the market chartist amongst us. When was the last time the gold market declined seven ( 7 ) days in a row? As of today this is the sevent day down. I find this very unusual with such a narrow price movement of $7.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 19:49 - ID#401237)
Oil sold@$20 Gold bought@$323?
Japan CB sold Gold last week. Why would they sell Gold when they have so little, unless it is to maintain the price and get something that they also have so little of-OIL This is worth a repost.
Date: Tue Oct 21 1997 08:27
vrosnky ( THE COVERT GOLD COST OF OIL by Sheik Abu Bekr al-Rashid ) ID#427357:
This study gives material support to "ANOTHERs" hypothesis that there is a definite relationship between stable oil prices and gold's dwindling value in past years - the LBMA mystery continues, albeit another onion-layer of subterfuge peeled back: gold_cost_oil.html

(Tue Oct 21 1997 19:53 - ID#347457)
It sure is frustrating market
It sure is frustrating to watch the market and gold behavior. Well, at least the one positive sign for me. FSAGX went up +.89% and FDPMX up +.50% despite additional decline of gold. Does this mean that the gold stox are reaching the support level and refuse to go down along with gold?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 19:55 - ID#403267)
So very glad you posted photos of your house and land. That castle hath a pleasant seat! Gorgeous, you'll miss the place I'll bet, but of course if you did so well on this one I can hardly wait to see the next one. Best wishes and luck with your dealin...

(Tue Oct 21 1997 20:03 - ID#401237)
Forward Slash Missing
Sorry, try this.
This just about the only way to explain what is happening. The only answers for the two nagging questions: 1 ) Why are CB's selling?
2 ) Who is buying all of this Gold?


(Tue Oct 21 1997 20:05 - ID#403267)
D.A., just want you to know you have earned your very own floppy disk in me kitco library. Keep up the good work, I find your posts downright inspiring!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 20:07 - ID#223146)
@Anothers (Thoughts)
It should be pointed out that the price of oil as with all commodities will be valued at a price equal to or less than a competing alternative . More specifically the oil price will always be capped by the price to produce synfuel. Today we have the ability to replace oil with synfuel manufactured from our 400 year coal reserves at a price equivalent to $40 to $45 per barrel If " Another" is correct then our leaders have reached the level of total incompetence . The US should have ( and it still can ) put its resources toward developing our synfuel capacity. The benefits for our society would be no military presence in the middle east and a more value for our dollar. Why do we elect those amongst us who have the least ability to truthfully and creatively problem solve our needs?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 20:10 - ID#426220)
The inimitable Gene Inger, CNBC financial celebrity, has become cautiously bullish on the stock market. As usual his words of wisdom are well worth the read:

(Tue Oct 21 1997 20:19 - ID#18970)
PER JON KAPLAN: Ted Arnold the MerrillLynch perma bear on metals is predicting 9 buck silver in 98 based upon "shadowy traders" causing a squeeze. This really means that the physical mkt is so tight that they can not suppress it much longer ie the squeeze is that physical demand exceeds supply. Look OUT at some time. They do not want any rise in silver which they can not realistically prevent to cause inflation concerns to the bond mkt ergo the "shadowy Trader" explanation by Ted Arnold of Merrill Lynch.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 20:24 - ID#2082)
Let's agree with hogs. It is poised. The 14-day ADX is moving to forty. This is one portent that I like to use and it is starting to suggest some correction will be made. Other indicators don't look quite ready though. Should we look to 66 than 68?? I have it on my 'hot-list'... eat a ham sandwich

(Tue Oct 21 1997 20:32 - ID#386276)
Gold chart with XAU, Aussie gold index overlaid.
Indicator at top is swing on m/a of A/D
Bullish uptrend starting with swing showing buy time.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 20:38 - ID#386276)
87 crash chart showing XAU & Aussie gold index.
The response of gold stocks to the tanking of equities while gold was still strongly trending up.
This chart bodes ill for gold stocks if dow tanks and gold rises.
The real buying time will be after the event.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 20:43 - ID#431263)
HERR JTF! Must say your 19:04 on oil, gold and the US dollar is as good an explanation of ANOTHER'S spin as we are likely to get! I fail to see any real major flaws in your reasoning! I believe you're getting VERY CLOSE to the truth about the crucial relationship between these THREE IMPORTANT COMMODITIES to the stability of the world trading system! It's posts like yours that keep me coming back for more! A tip of the Golden Cheesehat to you!

Steve - Perth
(Tue Oct 21 1997 20:57 - ID#284170)

Look out, Asia's about to collapse

Jakarta takes $1bn gamble on bank credit to boost rupiah

Turmoil in Asian markets to hit our economy

The Globalisation of Financial

$4bn fallout from Asian crisis

May not be able to lurk back until 3rd Nov. Away on a business trip

(Tue Oct 21 1997 21:00 - ID#386276)
Weekly gold chart with a buy sell indicator overlaid.

Donald the charting package is Supercharts, a very good high quality charting program.
You need to have a database of shares data, plus to hook up to an end-of-day supplier to keep all the charts up to date.

Sounds like your ISP has you wired for sound. *NZ Music live@ luna*

(Tue Oct 21 1997 21:01 - ID#386276)
Weekly silver chart with a buy sell indicator overlaid.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 21:06 - ID#25645)
Soros@Russia. Japan
If the Central Banks sell gold, do they really sell it? How do we know?

If gold is sold, who buys it? How do we know?

Could other CB's be buying while one sells? How would we know?

Do market swings in metals and stocks always the result of fundamentals and/or shortages, etc.? How would we know?

Or could some rapid changes be the result of foreign events? How would we know?

For instance, what are the implications of the following:

RUSSIAN-JAPANESE RAPPROCHEMENT CONTINUES. Cooperation between Russia and Japan has increased in several areas since the two sides decided to ignore for the time being the territorial dispute that has kept Moscow and Tokyo at odds for many years. Vasilii Saplin, a senior Russian diplomat, told ITAR-TASS on 18 October that some progress has been made toward an agreement on fishing rights.

Meanwhile, Japan is preparing a proposal for participation in the development of a major Siberian gas deposit near Irkutsk, the news agency reported the next day. And the Sakhalin authorities have called for a bilateral working group to prepare proposals for the upcoming Russian-Japanese summit in Krasnoyarsk on 1-2 November.

SOROS ON AID, INVESTMENT PLANS. U.S. billionaire George Soros told journalists in Moscow that over the next three years, he plans to spend $300-500 million on humanitarian aid programs for Russia.

The projects will cover health, education, culture, the Internet, military reform, the legal system, local government, and building an open society in Russia. Soros said he hopes to cooperate with the current government, "especially its reform element," an apparent reference to First Deputy Prime Ministers Anatolii Chubais and Boris Nemtsov as well as Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Sysuev. Soros's Quantum Fund contributed nearly $1 billion toward the winning bid Nemtsov as well as Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Sysuev. Soros's Quantum Fund contributed nearly $1 billion toward the winning bid for a 25 percent stake in the telecommunications giant Svyazinvest in July. Soros confirmed that Quantum will participate in some future auctions for oil and gas companies but said it will not bid for shares in the oil company Rosneft.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 21:09 - ID#252110)
Goldfinger: your post of 10/20/1997 - 21:10

Curious about where you learned about the 500 year cycle.

I've known about a 500 year cycle for about 10 years now. Climate change cycle ( Warm/Wet, Warm/Dry, Cold/Wet, Cold/Dry ) and if I remember correctly, were about to enter into a Cold/Dry period. You didn't learn about it from one of Moira Timms books, did you?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 21:16 - ID#386276)
The last part of this article aludes to AG real fears.
The Globalisation of Financial

Steve - Perth
(Tue Oct 21 1997 21:18 - ID#284170)
Re: Nick ( Aussie ) The MSCI chart was excellent. Note the double head on this chart over the past three months. Not looking good for world stocks.
The high rise in US stock mkt may not last. Dow needs to get well past
8300 for bull to be re-confirmed. May happen however. Asia has not seen
the end of it ( as per previous posts ) . As a matter of fact, am looking for some good Asian charts to see how bad their markets have been, looking for a bottom. There is going to be some excellent buying there soon ( or in next 12 months ) . I believe in a DIVERSIFIED portfolio.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 21:23 - ID#315256)
@Media slant on GOLD reporting
Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that our local Meganews station, KGO, only reports the Gold price when it drops, never when it rises? I listen to KGO everyday during commute hours ( and I do mean HOURS ) , and it has never failed yet. For at least 2 years, the so called "business" report never reports the change in Gold price unless it falls...and when it IS reported as a drop, it is said almost with absolute GLEE by the business reporter, ( Lynne Himeniz ) as if she's shaking her finger at the audience saying "Gold dropped again you old timer FOOLS who bought it years ago!" Now I've called the anti stock market pro Gold Bug forces of yesteryear foolish myself, but I find this kind of "reporting" to be quite deceptive. What is the agenda? Why do all media outlets insist on putting their slant to everything, even something like a commodity price?

Anyone else notice this in other areas of the country? I know we see it in all the print media ( more by omission than anything else ) , but it's a little surprising the way it'd being done in this case. Not competely ignoring the price, just reporting it when it's down.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 21:26 - ID#431263)
Viele dank for posting these shocking reports from the Aussie press! Once again I warn all who post and lurk here to remember that NO NATION is immune to the MAJOR MONETARY DEBACLE brewing currently in Asia! Eventually the shockwaves from Asia will be felt EVERYWHERE ON EARTH including Australia, Canada and the US! The IMMEDIATE effects will be DEFLATIONARY for us ( cheaper imports and slower worldwide growth ) and INFLATIONARY for them! ( plunging currencies, rising prices and reduced purchasing power ) . But longer term I expect the dollar to tank, the Dow to plung and gold to soar as it becomes obvious that the only way out of this mess is to PRINT MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF PAPER! The ensuing CURRENCY CRISIS will encircle the globe collapsing one nation after another as the world trading mechanism currently under the control of the CB's fails and oil, gold and the dollar part company like never before! During such a global financial meltdown the ONLY SAFE HAVEN will be RAW PHYSICAL GOLD! All paper will be inflated away to paper heaven! NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE INEVITABLE! Unfortunately for SE ASIA the time for preparation has now passed!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 21:34 - ID#257114)
JTF, your 19:04 post should be first posting inducted into the kitko hall of fame posting library.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 21:34 - ID#427357)
THE COVERT GOLD COST OF OIL by Sheik Abu Bekr al-Rashid
This study gives material support to "ANOTHERs" hypothesis that there is a definite relationship between stable oil prices and gold's dwindling value in past years - the LBMA mystery continues, albeit another onion-layer of subterfuge peeled back:

(Tue Oct 21 1997 21:34 - ID#2082)
Gold ya' just don't realize what you do to me
I know it's long and sorry Bart...but it sure is good...h M! ( Download it when you have a few minutes )

(Tue Oct 21 1997 21:58 - ID#251147)
LGB re. KGO 810 am I wouldn't doubt it.. KGO is the most left wing radio station I've ever heard

(Tue Oct 21 1997 21:58 - ID#386276)
Here's some charts on Asian Indices

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:03 - ID#431263)
GOLD NOW UP 10 cents!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:10 - ID#344308)

a smoke-signal enveloped his persona and imparted
( after he inhaled ) some wisdom of the ages, ------cycles indeed!

whatever the scale of time, one naturally follows the other...

cycles.......what destructive cycle has been sleeping for 24 years?
war.......viet-nam being the last real war.......imm

are there any players that could re-create similar conditions?
korea.....n korea can destroy seoul in less than 30 min
with their established artillery. they are starving in
n korea by the tens-of-thousands....s korea is their ( ito )
meal-ticket for unification. the machinations that have
fueled the n korean war machine are positioned to reap
the harvest of THEIR design....control AND domination of
their spheres-of-influence.

who could these new bullies be? china, speed, china.

two fronts, sea-skimming damned many, that every bullet
ever made is expended, yet they keep-on-a-comin. little speed-boats by
the millions with hari-kari-samuri-ninja-warriors with suit-case nukes
from the sultan-of-siam.

hell, they may not even fire a shot, clinton has already been to bed
with the chinese........

cherokee!; ) flying-in-circles-looking-for-crops----------

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:12 - ID#401237)
Giant Sucking Sound
Some one just pulled the chain on the toilet in Hong Kong -600 FLUSH TIME

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:12 - ID#431263)
HANG SENG DOWN over 600 PTS! to 11,788 ( -5%!!! )

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:21 - ID#20135)
Ouch! Hang Seng is in a free fall. Got to be trouble for all Asian markets. Japan holding ... but for how long.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:22 - ID#431263)
HANG SENG NOW ONLY DOWN A MERE 488 pts! COuld this be a SHORT TERM PANIC BOTTOM DEVELOPING or just another ZAG UP before the next ZIG DOWN?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:25 - ID#344308)
10 days and counting...may-be tomorrow,
may-be friday..........10 days max for
gold to show, and paper to light a fire
that will be seen around the world....

gollum where are you? your presciousssss
is fixing to fly with dora where only the
mind can go! ----books and words.....MY prescioussssss
with gold lettering......

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:26 - ID#20135)
Steve thanks for the link to regional charts. Very troublesome. I am wondering how long all Ordinaries and NZ can resist the trend.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:30 - ID#431263)
Heng Seng now back over 12,000, But Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan now suckin' air! Gott im Himmel such volatility!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:35 - ID#431263)
Now can add Indonesia to the list of air suckers! Can Thailand and the Philippines be far behind?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:36 - ID#338102)
As a US resident; Thank god the Asian financial chaos is not here. Yet.

I can't imagine the political fallout from such an event. I expect our US politicians would make the Malay Prime Minister good company

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:39 - ID#431263)
CAN NOW ADD CHINA ( SHENZEN ) to the growing list of troubled markets!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:47 - ID#431263)
Heilige! That was a short ZIG UP! Hang Seng now back down to 11,900! Can also add INDIA to the growing list of nervous nellies!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:48 - ID#344308)

looks like you will be able to diversify
into cheap asian stocks sooner and quite
cheaper than maybe you ever imagined.

does'nt the incredible volatility in the
stock markets indicate ANYTHING to the sleep-walkers?
when the moment is at hand, there will be no
getting-out before huge losses are incurred!
is the risk of another 9% quarterly gain on
top of record breaking gains for the last 6
years wise? what happened to taking a HUGE
profit and banking it?

the adage from the gurus' is----these huge swings
are due to the heights ( 7k to 8k+ ) of the current
market! rationalize that this is normal even though
no model exists, either historical or theoretical, for
these riders-of-the-crest of a financial tsunami to be
able to speak of ANYTHING with authority!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ( run-on? ) up side the head....

cherokee!; ) amazed-at-the-sleepwalkers-numbers

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:53 - ID#30116)
Just a thought, but what if the JITI ( Just In Time Inventory ) idea gets scrapped in the near future? What if... companies decide to build stockpiles due to supply uncertainty? I'm not confining this to the PMs either.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:53 - ID#431263)
S. Korea UP 0ver 4%! No fear of N. Korean invasion tonight at least! Go figure!

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:53 - ID#310407)
Yes that Oil price, Rothschild, CB conspiracy is coming home to roost. This was all started by the Illuminati many years ago ( search Ilumminati, there's a web site and everything ) , perpetuated by the One worlders, the Fifth column, the Tri Lateral Commision, Gorbachev/Gore and all their minions, massive frauds taking place daily which the public is unaware of, global financial empire powers are secret, so called legitimate Govts. are fronts, Middle East power brokers in on it, in their own interest to plat along, black helicopters no myth, Kennedy was assasinated by the Gatekeepers years ago, Vince Foster more currently, they knew too much, many Clinton associates assasinated as he was hand picked by 5th column, even China in on it ( major contributors to Clinto campaign ) as well as new CIS leaders, a secret CIA within the CIA exists which holds the real intelligence linked to their other Gobal counterparts, plans to implant microchips behind ear of all citizens of every country for tracking purposes, Gold and paper being manipulated but new One world currency will be neither..plastic, Bill Gates aware and involved in entire plan for one world cyber domination, Heavens Gate members were not a cult, they were a group that had discovered truth and were assasinated with "Cult" stories as a cover, alien Area 51 coverup demonstrates groups ability to cover up, Soros a major player and insider in Tri Lateral comission, stay tuned........

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:57 - ID#30116)
Earl -- INTC is not looking too great these days. Harbinger of the tech sector? What will the CPI boys do when they can't use the falling computer prices to show how 'low' inflation is?

(Tue Oct 21 1997 22:59 - ID#20135)
Now let us think about the asian situation for a moment. With the general area being thrust into a major currency and market problem ( notice I am avoiding the work crisis ) , is Japan going to be able to substain their growth?

Maybe they can replace the market that the will lose in asia by increasing aggressively the sales in Europe and North America. Of course, Europe isn't doing are that well economically yet, but they can compete with the other asian countries to sell everything possible to the U.S.

Of course, the U.S. wants to sell more to Asia ( China and Japan especially ) to lower our mammoth trade deficit, but maybe they will put that off a few more years if asia promises to keep buying our debt.

I think the piper is going to be paid soon, and as some have pointed out -- it isn't going to be pretty. Japan's market has to be next in line for the downturn because their asian investments are turning on them.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 23:06 - ID#20135)
Golden Cheesehead:
The Hang Seng is making me dizzy. Can you get up-to-date quote on the Nikkei? yahoo doesn't seem to update it often and I can't seem to get the nekkei net link George posted today.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 23:11 - ID#433171)
John, learned about the cycle through various books and materials none in particular. If you go back in European history say 2000 years there where radical shifts in weather and financial markets. As we slice into the 21st century things are going to get very interesting. Keep in touch, I would appreciate any information you can find. It's been awhile since I been active in researching the subject.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 23:12 - ID#364147)
@ Roebear
Thankx Roebear! next one will be better!!...Can someone post the Asian scores---I can't access em tonight....go tribe

(Tue Oct 21 1997 23:13 - ID#30116)
XAU bounced smartly off of the ~100 support area. Now the question becomes, will it hold? Gold did nothing of consequence today but the gold stocks seemed to come to life around noon time today. Chart support for gold is ~$320.

Bond market will be on pins and needles too. Lots of new supply coming online with an uncertain Fed stance. Will rates go up, or not? Too many questions to think about tonight........... Good night all, The Simpsons are on. :- )

(Tue Oct 21 1997 23:19 - ID#2082)
George Soros
Did I miss it or has no one posted info regarding the Soros 'aid' to Russia. He has promised as much as $500 millionUS to them. I didn't read this on kitco this a.m. Perhaps Donald posted it and I missed it.


What are HIS intentions. Perhaps some conspiracy buffs can lend some info... call georgeS for some cashy-cashy, cha-CHING!

gold up .10...oh my...

(Tue Oct 21 1997 23:22 - ID#2082)
@ mean...TED
Great Game!! go fish! go gary S! What a catch!

away...back, back, back, over

gold still up .10

(Tue Oct 21 1997 23:25 - ID#20135)
Australia All Ordinaries ^AORD 11:11PM 2660.5 +9.8 +0.37%
China Shanghai Composite ^SSEC 11:12PM 1182.707 -9.163 -0.77%
Hong Kong Hang Seng ^HSI 11:11PM 12017.69 -385.41 -3.11%
India BSE 30 ^BSESN 6:16AM 4116.99 -37.85 -0.91%
Indonesia Jakarta Composite ^JKSE 11:12PM 513.338 -1.63 -0.32%
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 10:02PM 17383.52 +173.43 +1.01%
Malaysia KLSE Composite ^KLSE 11:11PM 741.72 -18.58-2.44%
New Zealand NZSE 40 ^NZ40C 11:08PM 2635.48 +35.54 +1.37%
Pakistan Karachi 100^KSE 8:20AM 2056.52 0.00 0.00%
Singapore Straits Times ^SS1 11:11PM 1739.87 -31.35 -1.77%
South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 10:32PM 590.16 +23.31 +4.11%
Sri Lanka All Share ^CSE 4:11AM 769.70 +0.50 +0.07%
Taiwan Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 11:10PM 7687.60 -46.45 -0.60%
Thailand SET ^SETI 11:11PM 508.48 +0.54 +0.11%

Think I didn't make any errors. Of course its olda data ( by minutes hopefully ) .

(Tue Oct 21 1997 23:27 - ID#433171)
Please bring us your insightfull teachings.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 23:28 - ID#364147)
@ A.Goose + ET
Thankx dude....EB: Yer man Sheffield just CHOKED in the clutch...Gold still up a ...dime

(Tue Oct 21 1997 23:56 - ID#2082)
Put a fork in him
Give Plunk the Dunk... watch gold go up .10

(Tue Oct 21 1997 23:56 - ID#433171)
Stock market is now attempting to break through all time highs. A.G. is about to slam on the brakes. Fasten your belts as a major pile up is on the way. The shoe is on the other foot now and A.G. is ready to bash the markets instead of wallsteet bashing A.G. If there is one thing the yuppies are about to learn on wallstreet, is you can't fight the fed. Their in for one hell of a licking. I'm out this week or wednesday. The way I see it is A.G. is the principal and the yuppies on wallstreet are the school children.

(Tue Oct 21 1997 23:58 - ID#431263)
HANG SENG NOW UP 10 to 12,425!! IS THIS A KEY REVERSAL? Taiwan now tanking -178. Japan up! Korea up! China DOWN! Malaysia DOWN! Singapore DOWN! Thailand up slightly. What a wild and crazy night!

Eric Plunk
(Tue Oct 21 1997 23:58 - ID#220330)
@ I am a loser
I suk