Yup...looks like a reversal for Hang Seng....and the tribe..

Won's weakness seen slashing S.Korean gold trade;

but where all that "trans" shipped gold was going - no one cares to say. http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/21/y0023_z00_6.html

Gold bears wrong on S.African output crash - Harmony.

Harmony's Bernard Swanepoel also said "There are shareholders who buy our highly geared stock for the blue skies ( of high gold prices ) and if we hedged we would take the blue skies away". Wish that all gold mining companies felt so, regardless of short term dressings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/21/gldfy_gnc_1.html

Golden Cheesehead: What is the time on your quote and how are you getting it?

Yahoo has:

Hong Kong Hang Seng ^HSI 12:03AM 12207.75 -195.35 -1.58%

A.G. is about to teach you something about markets you never knew before.The bear is alive. I think everyone has underestimated A.G.
and now he has done his job. You were forewarned.

OOPS! Hang Seng now DOWN 175! WHAT A NIGHT!

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Still 100% Long

Panda ( @INTC ) : I know what you mean. Some time ago I advised a friend, who had just taken a fresh position, that 94 was going to be critical. Failure in that region would mean 50 before it ever saw 94 again. It appears to be on the road. ..... Why is it easier to make these calls for others rather than for ourselves????

Info on market data
http://www.wsdinc.com/

Cause your not EMOTIONALLY involved......

Ted: Nah! It's probably because its more fun to deliver bad news to friends. ( grin thing )

Yeah,yer right ( goofy-lookin grin thing ) ....what the hell am I doin up @ this hour??? ....

Tis beautiful......nite duuude........

What did you say, Punk! How did you like those 5 RBI's tonight? I just called EB and he told me about the gold situation. If you short gold I think that you can be an MVP like I was tonight. That EB sure has his act together. I'm gonna short gold tomorrow in between warm-ups.

GS

South Africa: Gold fades but financials shine
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/v557a2.htm

In the Pink: Learning the lessons of 1987
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/v551de.htm

Seesawing Taiwan stocks widen fall on HK turmoil
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/21/y0004_z00_17.html

There were many stories about OPEC wanting means other than the US $ to pay for its oil.
Talk concerned the D Mark in particular.
ANOTHER makes sense to me. Who really wants a paper promise connected to a depleting "real" resource like oil?
Resource rich countries like Canada and Austrialia should take note and protect their depleting resources against this paper pollution.
Is it possible that the strong currency weak currency charade ( the temporary shifting of economic power bases ) that has been going on for years is tied to the X value in the gold for oil equation that ANOTHER refers to.

To build on the LBG's satelite stories: space is a big place - besides
the circumference of the earth its over 10,000 miles thick for our
satelites. Of the 8500 objects - only 600 are operating satelites.
The rest are about the size of softballs. Also - a satelite isn't very
big. Iridium's are about 22 ft long and 4 ft round. Globalstar and
Teledisc have none so why are they even mentioned? Of the 8500 objects,
they are all very well known and tracked with our US dollars - every one
of them.

As for the rest of LGB's comments on the communication satelites he
speaks for himself. My opinions are different but I don't want to
discuss it.

For anyone worried about space trash falling on your kids or something
don't worry. Very very very few things get into space that would survive
reentery.

BART

thanks, we have two extra hours of real time, messages now right way up for the antipodeans at your 02:00. ?

Nick@Canberra you asked about New Zealand Miners

NZ economic brief, we are experiencing very low ( Government Mandated ) inflation that is tantamount, imho, to stagnation rather than deflation, a kind of rotting stasis. A survey of business confidence released today ( listened to with half an ear ) showed the lowest confidence since 1992, and that was postively brilliant compared to 1989, for those of us who can remember back. The new electoral system *MMP* is throwing up some quirky members of Parliament..

As posted yesterday, the NZSE 40 is still 45% or so *below* its August 97 highs. This despite the New Zealand Experiment, which essentially sold off the assets accrued by three generations of New Zealanders ( the Railways, Air New Zealand, Telecom NZ, Electricity Departments, the Bank of New Zealand, State Housing Stock ) for a penny in the pound ostensibly to reduce debt.. nice work if you can get it..

and so Nick, you asked about NZ Mining Equities?

Currently the level of public ownership of all equities is at its lowest level since the early 70s. Most of the NZSE top twenty are owned by institutions and overseas shareholders. Much investment here is due to the relatively high interest rates on T-Bills, and the sovereign government of New Zealand guaranteeing various debt raising Treasury debt, mostly encumbered by the Social Welfare State deficit funding and misguided *Think Big* industrial enterprises in a rural economy. Thus NZ is particularly vulnerable to capital flight. The share market is still very thin, the gold mining stocks are even thiner.


There are some remnants of the 1980s on the mining boards, mostly started by Aussie wide boys and now are investing in todays perpetual motion machine. ( I exagerate only a little ) .

The best introduction is this rather dated article. I was going to post it when released, but as I had to type it and no-one ( nooone ) expressed interest, so I flagged it. Here goes.


BTW, since you asked, I will do some crunching on some of these stocks and post on the other channel when i get a moment.



Who Produces What in New Zealand

Mark Reynolds, NZ Herald, 02 September 1997

The New Zealand Gold Mining Industry is much smaller than the Australian industry, but there is still scope for some rationalisation.
Already the largest producer in New Zealand, has delayed construction on a new plant that would have boosted its ore treatment potential by two-thirds, to 9 million tons a year. With Associated infrastructure the plant would have cost $120 million.
The expansion was delayed, mainly because of the lower gold price, but resource planning restrictions also had an impact.
The Macraes field in Otago produces more than 134,000 oz. of gold a year.
Macraes is controlled by Western Australian magnate Brett Fogarty. There have been intermittent rumours about him selling out but so far he has declined to comment.
Another major New Zealand producer is the Waihi Gold company which operates the Martha Hill mine.
The company has plans to extend by a further seven years from the year 2000 production at the mine.
Waihi currently produces around 75,000 oz of gold a year, it is a relatively low cost producer and is therefore in a better position than most operators to weather the current price storm.
One third of Martha is owned by listed company Otter Gold, which sees it as a long-term investment. The rest of the company is owned by Australias Normandy, which is also in for the long haul.
The third main gold mining operation is the Golden Cross Mine at Waihi. This is 80% owned by a subsidiary of Coeur dAlene Mines of Idaho, with the remainder owned by a subsidiary of Todd Corporation. The mine produced 80,000 oz of gold last year but it faces major costs to stabilise a dam containing waste from the mine.
Given the environmental problems a merger with another company is not likely and its future is uncertain.
There are a number of medium-sized alluvial operations in New Zealand, such as the Grey River dredge on the West Coast.
But these are not considered large enough to be part of any industry rationalisation.

August 97 = August 87 in the auratelipticalaraura calendar

http://www.morandan.com/morandan/RealEstate/CHarvey/RoundIsland/

Ted Ted Ted...What are ya doin me son.Is life so good ya has ta leave it?
Needs ta git back in ta tha rat race does ya.Arrrr..ya'll be looking back
one day and sayin...what ta hell was oi thinkin.Needs ta be out there oi
guess.Wouldn't want ta miss anything now would oi.

Goldfinger - your 10/21/1997 23:11. Thanks for the reply.

I would be interested to find out what books and other material you have read that enlightened you on cycles. I found out about cycles, prophecies ( Biblical, Hopi, Mayan, Aztec ( Eschatology is one of my passions ) ) , and a whole bunch of other items through a book by Moira Timms. Unfortunately, I don't remember the title as I'm no longer in posession of the book. Sigh. Hope to run across it one day.

Hopefully with in the next couple of weeks, I'll try to contact a friend from long ago and get the title and author of a book that my friend lent me several years ago. The book presented a general THEORY ( not fact ) of the operation of the universe that, well, you have to read it to truly understand it. Take for example, the physical structure of the universe. The authors contend that the universe is not spherical or circular shaped, but octagonally shaped ( two four-sided pyramids joined at the bases ) , and went on to explain that the Star of David is the "view" of the universe from one perspective. Like I said, you have the read the book. Definitely way too deep and wild for the general masses ( maybe even for some at the Kitco crowd, we'll see ) .

One final thought on cycles. I don't know whether to laugh or cry when I hear various analysts, newscasters, and even good friends proclaim that the DOW will never fall or that gold ( and gold shares ) will never rise. Ignorant bunch they are. Obviously they've never read Ecclesiates 3:1-8. I go back and read it whenever I think the rain will never end, or conversely, that the good times will continue forever.

Cherokee - your 10/21/1997 22:10. Sublime, truely sublime.

Hope that "cycle" doesn't come to pass. But if it does, who knows what weapons the black hole budget military projects here in the U.S. have created to handle such a situation. "They" are just hoping for the chance to play with their new "toys".

To ALL: Philisophical reading for the day. Ecclesiastes 1:9-11.

being swallowed up a panic driven black hole of fear.

I took the plunge and loaded up on SSRIF. Will complete my contribution to the Silver cause today with purchase of PAASF. Let the squeeze begin!

Morning All!! [;.}}

This came in over the last few days. Can't imagine from whence it came-so will leave it to you, Aurator and the rest of the 'Early Risers' to vet it. You may have already seen it?

http://www.lowrisk.com/crash/87vs97.htm

Interesting conference, which finished yesterday. I'm trying to fix my scanner so that you may have some charts etc. on the 'Universal Gene' theory oif Frederick Crookes.

Have a great day!

Auric G'day, does this mean you're gonna change your name to Auric Silverfinger? Or am i missing something? Big Swing**g D888?

Hi Colleen, good to see ya back in the real, as in royal, as in pieces of eight world

Nick anyone?

ALL,

At last ,the bad turn to worst today!Hong kong market droped 1700 poits in three days!Today,down nearly 750 dots.....!How about china market's...SHENCHEN AND SHANGHAI..COMING NEXT?Perhaps!try this: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.html
So does the malaysia,singapore stocks....thai bhats and ringgits both in very very dangerous area!The future looked NEGATIVE AND FRUSTATION TOO!!!
LIFE SEEMS HARDER AND HARDER....VERY TROUBLES!
STAY HAPPY STILL.....

Aurator Hi there, our markets overblown today, absolutely maniac. Lendlease $33 jumped $2.8 today. All our blue chips except metals went berserk, gaining back what they spent two weeks losing all in one day. It's almost as though the dippies think we're off on another bull leg. The volatility in markets these days is extreme. It's like US at the moment with everyone buying before they get left behind. I'm sure AG is going to be scratching his head as to what to do if this leg gets off the ground. He'll have to something serious to stomp on the bull this time. If not Dow 9200 in 3 weeks.
I think that this could be the biggest bull trap ever if we fail the retest.
I posted a couple of charts today worth scrollling back to see. One was a chart of gold with an indicator showing golds first buy signal in a long time. The other one on gold shares in the '87 crash.

HANG SENG STOCK INDEX -765.33 -6.17%
NIKKEI 225 INDEX +477.52 +2.78%
STRAITS TIMES INDU -39.54 -2.23%
KUALA LUMPUR INDEX -29.13 -3.83%
KOREA COMPOSITE INDEX +34.47 +6.08%
PHILIPPINES COMPOSITE IX -64.92 -3.25%
CHINA CLSA INDEX CHINA WRLD -100.91 -9.33%
JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX -9.74 -1.89%

During the last couple of years I have heard and read many different explanations for the falling gold price. The latest theory regarding oil/gold swaps ( ref: Another ) is one of the more interesting although probably the most fanciful. Why is it so hard for gold bugs to accept that the gold price has been dropping because investment demand has been, and continues to be, low ? I guess the real reason for the bear market is not complicated or intriging enough to be interesting.

Investment demand for gold should pick up markedly next year, and the gold price will respond accordingly. I wonder if we will then read far fetched theories put forward by the paper bugs to explain the price increase.

Cheers, Milhouse

I have also read many reasons why gold has dropped, I must admit I enjoy reading them. About 12 yr's ago I read a mkt. letter by Eliot Janeway, deceased, he said gold goes the opposite of the currency in power. I agree with him and try to invest accordingly. At this point in time because of the gold give away I have been buying gold stks and a plat. mine, but IMHO the big move happens when the dollar comes down.

Jin: Appreciate the news - Any idea whether the market situation in China and Hong Kong is because of real underlying problems? Does mainland China have a major debt problem? Any ideas?
Hang in there!

Paper is blowing about the world this morning like the leaves in our yard. Can the world financial system stand an extended period of super hot paper? I look for some really stupid moves by governments to try to "trap" capital with even more volatility in paper markets to follow.

Nick ( @Aussie ) , Aurator: Good morning to the more creative, peaceful part of the Kitco world!
Re: your 5:46 post, Nick. Our AG is very afraid of a runaway market, fueled by a "flight to safety". Undoubtedly he is well aware of what happened between 1927 and 1929, when the US market became the investment site of last resort ( for a while! ) . When we get to 8300 on the Dow, he will do something -- like raise rates, I would guess. Can't have that surfer Tsunami, can we?
I wonder - how much longer will our fledgling gold stock rally survive before it falls back - 2-3 weeks? I think we can say safely that gold bullion will not follow below its low for the year -US$318, was it?
Interesting times -- still can't decide if China/Hong Kong are in deep trouble or not -- China appears to be the lowest cost producer.

the paper-tiger has contracted aids from
sleeping with too many harlots and purveyors
of the flesh. it has metastisized into a
paper-eating night-mare for those who thought
latex could prevent the disease. their pleasure
was substituted for reason and rational thought.

who can stop it? ----------no-one--------

the smoke-signal-mobile is ready to take-on those
who have permanently reserved seats. let the show
begin, the best seats are taken-----------

cherokee!; ) sending-signals-fatimm------

9 days max.........today is a good day for
the beginning of the end------rip--paper-tiger

at : http://www.gold.org/Pages/Wgmc1.htm was delayed by a day but is now up on our site. -- Parn --

Garry Sheffield ( 00:52 ) Get off my cloud!...Major: Swan's Island Maine ain't exactly the "rat race ) --much more isolated than here ---but keep posting the listing ( will give ya cut ) ..JIN: What the hell is going on In Hong Kong?? Do you think my brother is making big bucks in Bangkok ( HAHAHA )

Auric: A note of caution in purchasing SSRIF and PAASF relative to the "squeeze." These two Silver producers are excellent purchases and very solid companies with respected management.

My point is that In terms of volitility PAASF and SSRIF are at one end of the spectrum. First Silver Reserve and Avino Mines FSR.v and ASGMF would be at the other end.

For further reading check out the Goldbug at gold-eagle. He provides a far better illustration through his understanding of the silver markets then I could hope to present to you here.

I own SSRIF, FSR.v and ASGMF. I own Oroperu which shares a property with PAASF.

Good luck

Dow UP 139...Hang Seng DOWN 765.....As Jin says,East-West tension is on the RISE....U.S. merchandise trade surplus or deficit by region, in millions of dollars,
not seasonally adjusted

AUG. '97
JULY '97
AUG. '96
Japan
-4,525
-5,161
-3,712
Canada
-1,568
-1,304
-2,228
China
-5,159
-4,707
-4,717
W. Europe
-1,972
-4,336
-,1,468
Mexico
-992
-98 7
-1,642
NICS*
-956
-857
-557
South/Central
America
+893
+466
+466


*Newly industrialized countries: Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan,
South Korea

Daily Futures Price Listing - shows open interest on futures for all months.
http://www.mrci.com/ohlc/ohlc-09.htm


Saudi "disappointed by White House oil comments
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/22/z0000_5.html

Spot platinum down on Japan sales
http://cnnfn.com/markets/bridge/2200.1.html

KL, Singapore plunge on FX woes
http://cnnfn.com/markets/bridge/1124.1.html

Taiwan stocks end off amid HK worry, state buying
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/22/y0004_y00_1.html
Brokers said the market was supported by heavy strategic buying by government-related funds, especially in late trade.
``Thanks to state buying, the index did not close sharply lower, and we can expect no sharp falls ahead as the government is determined to support the market,'' Huang said.

Japanese banks face $16bn paper loss
http://www.bday.co.za/cgi-bin/post-query.perl>http://www.bday.co.za/cgi-bin/post-query.perl

Metals
http://www.bday.co.za/cgi-bin/post-query.perl
LONDON - Precious metals prices were narrowly mixed yesterday afternoon, needing fresh moves in the currency markets or elsewhere to stimulate interest, dealers said.

The firm dollar was enough to cap a fairly tentative upside for bullion. The muted reaction in the financial markets to a wider than forecast US August trade deficit did not help the metals either.

The gap came in at $10,39bn compared with a revised $10,02bn deficit in July and forecasts of $9,90bn. "It was nothing exceptional," an economist said.

Gold was fixed only 30c an ounce above the morning fixing at $323,30, still 60c lower than Monday afternoon.

At the fix, the December contract on New York's Comex gold futures market was 30c lower at $324,50 after a quiet start to the trading session.

Bullion prices had been supported by physical buying around current levels after the market came back from its recent high of $339,35 seen on October 1, the highest gold price since late June.

Even so, financial turmoil in the traditional importing areas of southeast Asia has provoked selling of gold rather than accumulating it. The Asian festival and wedding season begins this quarter and resultant gold buying is being looked to lift prices.

However some dealers conceded that the record imports by India - the world's largest gold importer - in the first half of this year might have reduced the need to buy now.

Indian Reserve Bank chairman Chakravarty Rangarajan said yesterday approval may be given to more banks to import gold into the country. Eight banks and three state agencies are allowed to import and sell gold freely to both exporters of jewellery and local dealers. - Reuter.

TO Millhouse: If demand is the key issue you purport it to be the price should be rising. Demand appears to be rising from the various sources I come across.

If demand is high and the price drops and or waffles in a range, one would have to delve into the mystery created by a market which defys historical laws of action.

The oil/gold/paper theory is an interesting way to explain away something which appears to confuse many who study the gold market. People thought the world was flat, until some fanciful souls ventured into new realms of thought to peel that onion.

That having been said. Sometimes it is better to look at things with a telescope rather than a microspcope. In this instance I think the microscope is needed.

A nice way to say : Can you smell whats coming.

Dawns and Sunsets

Sun resplendent
Sinks into our West
And night folds quietly in
And rest

Eastward
Or rather, further West
For strange as it seems
Is where East lies
This moment dreaming
That same sun
Though setting here
Tinges their morning skies
With rose
And gold on those far hills
Transmutes at lovely dawn
Their snows

The days late meal our families share
Full scented in our darkling skies
As our late sun awakes them there
The rich scents of their breakfasts rise

Encroaching night
Heralds the wide world round
The swift awakening
Of dawns pale light

So life and death we say
Are but the morn and eve
Of our eternal day

G'day mate ( when ya wake up ) You have a letter-bomb in yer mail box mate-open verrry carefully.......

Milhouse:

An excellent post!

Gold and gold stocks should be used as trading instruments at times like these. Generally speaking, precious metals never make good long term INVESTMENTS.

I've only been able to access about 10% of the sites on the net since yesterday---anyone else having a similar problem??---or is this more of the handiwork by the brain surgeons that run ( ? ) my ISP...

Now This is the ONLY site I can tap into... ( thankx Bart! ) S+P futures down 1.45....

I am curious: Is Greenspan engineering a "panic" stock market to coincide with US Treasury refunding of all those billions and billions of short-term 5-year notes - the idea being to suck stock market money into bonds, since the Asians have apparently had enough of buying them? Since Greenspan et al have done their best to make eveyone believe gold is worthless, the only place to go when the market collapses is into the wide-open arms and happy smiles of US Treasury bonds - only 30 year'ers this time???

Tolerant1..I don't find it particularly reassuring to read that one has to get out a microscope to find what is happening to gold!

The inimitable Gene Inger, CNBC financial celebrity, has become cautiously bullish on the stock market. As usual his words of wisdom are well worth the read:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger1021.html

Depressed: Then try the telespcope, or do what I do on occasion. Ingest an entire bottle of Tequila, hold it upright, look through one end or the other and you won't care. It works, but only until you can feel your tongue again.

Now yer talkin mate....

JTF,

Thanks for the concern.Since i'm poor in financial field,its not suitable for me to gave numbers,forecasts,percentage,....ect.BUT,i can try to translate some important chinese news from ORIENTAL in future.To make my small contributions to the group.There are some really good chinese siteS about the investment. ( in HAN'S wrting,sorry ) .
TODAY HEADLINE IN ONE OF THE PAPER IN TAIWAN MENTION THAT:
THE FINANCIAL CRISIS WILL SOON HIT CHINA ( TAR LOOK ) ,JAPAN AND AUTRALIA! let see....!shenchen is the nearest stock market to HONG KONG,PERHAPS?....HAPPY TRADING

Nick@Aussie: Your Dad's poetry is beautiful-thank you for sharing. Perhaps?- On Friday evening, Noel Tyl told my son-in-law-to-be, who also writes poetry, that he would be interested in seeing it. If I heard correctly, he apparently writes music, amongst other interests, and is always looking for lyrics. Want me to ask him?

Hello, Jin: It must be hard for you at the moment. It's so good that you have found Kitcoites-the warmth and support is almost tangible. GOOD LUCK!!

JIN - We are with you in this bad time. Please take care. Do not get sucked in to bad feelings. Your life is more than money. You have friends and family. Take time with them.

Are Muslims allowed ( according to their faith ) to own gold?

GoldenCheeseHead - RE: your 10/21 21:26 post. In a nutshell! Our problem is liquidity. The fire storm is just starting. Someone posted here to look sharp if Japanese banks are run on. Personally I'm prepared to do a little pre-emptive 'run' here myself if things start down that road. I just don't trust this financial house of cards.

TO SPUD MASTER: I have read thoughts which stipulate that AG would sacrifice the stock market for the bond market. Somebody is going to get hammered one way or another.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/22/z0003_z00_1.html

TO ALL: I think the banks will be safe for a while in the US. I agree with the McAlveney post at gold-eagle.

The first major "run" will be on the mutual funds. This is going to be a frightful debacle for people here in the US. Banks are supposedly insured up to $100,000, the mutual funds, nothing.

For anyone interested.

This txt file shows in descending order the greatest movements in open interest for gold & silver options, since they topped out.
Both call and put options are shown.
The first date is the 6th Oct and second is 21st Oct.
New contracts listed since 6th Oct not shown.
Like the 3920 silver July99 - $7.00 calls recently purchased.
Price, vol, oi, $value also shown.

This study gives material support to "ANOTHERs" hypothesis that there is a definite relationship between stable oil prices and gold's dwindling value in past years - the LBMA mystery continues, albeit another onion-layer of subterfuge peeled back:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/gold_cost_oil.html

depressed: Of course Muslims can own gold. Citizens of the Arab states have long been big holders of gold. Remember the hordes of gold stolen from Kuwaitis by the Iraq army during the Gulf war? And the big sudden drop in gold price just after the invasion, as Saudis sold gold to pay for US mercenary troups and weapons to defend the Saudi border? Most of those involved can be assumed to be Muslims. However, during the holy month of Ramadan, which begins this year at the end of December, you can expect the Arab traders of gold to be less active in the gold markets during daylight hours in the mid-east, as that will be a month of fasting and prayer during the day, with less commercial activity for the faithful Muslim.

Hi Ted! I'm all over the net today -- so it would appear your ISP is asleep at the switch. Weather here in Colorado is clear and cold -- how goes the NS fall? Are you still kayaking?

Just to stay on topic......[ahem...] It appears to me that gold has been building a base over the last couple months. If levels stay here another month or so, I think that will squeeze most of the shorts out -- especially those short at the 315 level and below. As far as the stock market goes, I've been very impressed with it's strength over the last couple months. I suspect if support can be maintained at the 7800 level ( plus or minus a couple hundred points ) through the end of the year, then we are not going to see a meltdown of any proportion.

However, stocks being purchased today are being purchased at a price that assumes future earnings at levels higher than today. Sorta the "blue sky" theory. If those earnings don't pan out next spring, then we'll see a sell off. It remains to be seen if the sell off is orderly, or if the Gen-X'ers panic and take all their money and run.

Sig: Gold is indeed a poor long-term investment most of the time. But not all the time. During the 1970s and early 1930s gold and gold stocks outperformed virtually everything else. At the beginning of these periods gold and gold stocks were extraordinarily cheap relative to financial assets as is the case today.

The catalyst for the next gold bull will be the same as in the past -- economic, financial and, possibly political, turmoil that severely damages investor confidence. Once this transpires all the CB machinations will not be able to prevent the yellow from skyrocketing. But until then gold will remain in the doldrums.

I don't see AG's position as difficult to read. He's said in every possible way that he's afraid of having to supply mountains of liquidity in order to shore up the financial system if there is a crash. His problem is that he's like the parent that keeps saying that this is the last time he's going to bail his child out and keeps doing it anyway. People don't believe he will ever really allow any severe pain. And they are probably right in so far as he will always try to save the big banks. However, they may underestimate his position on gold and currencies. I have always seen him as thinking that the price of the dollar in terms of gold is of central importance and I think this will make him extremely reluctant to add liquidity beyond that needed to just keep banks solvent if things go bad in a big way. His problem will become really intractable if and when dollars outside the US start trying to convert to gold instead of US debt instruments. To try to head this off I see it as a cinch that he will try to increase interest rates. The present fiscal surplus isn't any help in this scenario and may be very short lived.

Words to remember - fast-track, paradigm or in the street with a pair of dimes.

Thought it was fitting:
http://www.unitedmedia.com/comics/dilbert/

JTF
Two of my earlier posts might interest -
Oil problems - trouble down the road?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/22/z0000_5.html

This one I think AG's real fear, ability to transfer vast amounts instantly. AG alludes to wishing to go back to more tranquil methods of trading. He must really hate this current volatility. We are already seeing his worst nightmare already unfolding in the East. Indexes gyrating 5-10% daily, 30% monthly.
China, Australia next? The domino effect awaits. Like in my poem this morning - as flows from East to West.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971022/verbatim/verbatim1.html


Colleen - Please do, my dad will be proud to know. He has written about 300 pieces over his lifetime, many excellent. And loves to share. It's one of his dreams to be published.

Hi Scotty!....figured it was MY ISP ( brain surgeons they ain't! ) ...Yeah, I'm still kayaking---last year my last ocean kayaking trip was December 17th so I got a ways ta go...water gets a tad nippy but once yer in the boat it ain't bad....still waiting for the damn whales ta show up---they's late this year...Since I can't access a damn thing am off ta Sydney fer weekly shoppin trip and a stopover @ the CASINO ( safer than stox these days! ) ...Ta Ta

Does anyone know what the status of treasury sales/buys are as far as Japan and Hong kong are concerned? I am expecting to see them selling sooner than later, but I don't have a link to monitor.

Amax Gold weighs options, including merger

DENVER, Oct 22 ( Reuters ) - Amax Gold Inc said Wednesday it was considering merger opportunities as well as a
restructuring of debt and capital.

Amax reported a third-quarter 1997 net loss of $9.3 million, or $0.10 per share, on revenue of $79.6 million compared with a
third quarter 1996 net loss of $2.5 million, or $.04 per share, on revenue of $23.4 million.

Gold production was a record 217,781 ounces for the third quarter of 1997, nearly four times the 59,250 ounces produced in
the 1996 third quarter.

In a statement, Amax said it is ``currently considering various options to restructure its debt and capital, which could include
accessing public debt and equity markets. The Company is also actively reviewing merger opportunities.''

Amax Gold Inc. produces gold in the United States, Russia and Chile and explores for gold in the Americas, Russia, Australia
and Africa.

Amax Gold is 58.8 percent owned by Cyprus Amax Minerals Co ( CYM ) .

Couldn't resist buying some June $370 calls yesterday morning $70 cheap. And watching golds performance this morning feel short term happy ( :- ) ) ) ) Should have bought them this morning.

Avid chatter:

Remember the song:"Yesterday, all my Soros seem so far away...". Well Hongkong investors are angry Soros shorted so much. Today, down 700. After cleaning up Taiwan & HK & SE Asia, Soros will head back to US and short.

Last week, Taiwan newspaper headlines "Soros shorted Taiwan Index futures and caused panic" & "Central bank spent US$5b defending NT$" & "Central gave up defending NT$ & NT$ drop 4%". In HK, what he did was borrow stock, short stock, short currency and short index futures. My Tokyo friend said he conspire with US govt so as to help US force open Asia financial markets. When US banks entered Asia, they want to control the economy. A New style of hegemony.

With Soros shorting so much in Asia and causing all these instabilities, the US govt has better watch out. They owes Asia huge debts - all in US T-bills. Sell & your yield will hit 10%.

Yes, deese, hostility is up. Taiwanese are doing an investigation to cause of its currency and stockmarket instabilities. And they hold US$150b in T-bills!

The most dangerous thing is what is China going to do. Together with HK, they control more than US$200b T-bills. And US speculators like Soros financed by US banks like Goldman shorted HK shares, futures and currency. What can't China sells all its T-bills and short some more.

And after shorting T-bills with yields over 10%, China can clean up some more with shorts in stock index futures.

In all the time that I have been old enough to know what was going on in the world, today's situation seems the most dangerous to me....and evidence mounts daily.

Morning all. Anyone watching the XAU. Yesterday we came down only to bounce up from a long running upper trendline, and closed up 2.69. This morning we're up another 1.42. The retacement of the rise from 9/16 to 10/1 may be over, with the next move up. Comments anyone.

ya-all see what gold is doing this AM?

I've been following XAU. I expected this rise. My target is 105 by end of week

xau +2.18

Re Another's posts

Oil up gold up silver up as I write

Gold stocks rallying sharply this morning, although bullion is up just 40 cents. The gold stocks are chomping at the bit and rally nicely on the smallest excuse. A very positive sign methinks.

Maybe my eyes are going square looking at this screen 15hrs a day.
But these last few days gold seems to be mirroring dows moves almost to the minute. If this is the case then a dow tank is going to send gold through the roof. Maybe just a coincidence?

Earl @00:15 -- Ted hit one aspect of it right on the head. Emotional involvement! Also, when one has no money 'on the line', it's much easier to make those technical calls... :- ) )

In the FWIW column, I've stopped day trading PM shares, all remaining positions are now, 'position trades'. If it takes two years for this sucker to turn around, I'll be here!!!!

Buyers remorse?????

09:10 HONG KONG STOCKS FALL 6% -- DOWN 43% SINCE EARLY AUGUST.

Who said China would keep things the same????

Just bought a sh--load of PAASF, getting strapped in. aurator--If this Silver squeeze occurs big time, may change my handle to Argent! Tolerant1--Thanks for comments. I agree with you on Goldbugs Weekly commentary. Go Precioussess!

"The Onion PARADOX" peels yet another layer away from the eventual truth of the LONDON BULLION MARKETING ASSOCIATION...:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron1020.html

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/special/ba.html?source=core/dbc

Boeing to report a loss for the quarter because of too much work?????

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/special/ba.html?source=core/dbc

Panda, I think your chart says it all. It would be hard for me to pile on after reviewing it, but obviously there are tons of others that can't resist these buying opportunies.

LGB:
KCBS ( 740AM ) used to list gold and silver with each business report at 25 min past each hour and 5 minutes before each hour. Couple of years ago, they dispensed with silver prices. Since Don Weigant, their business editor, recently retired, they report gold price whenever they feel the need ( about twice a day ) , but more when it was falling. You made an interesting observation, LGB. What is their motivation?
73, Lar

Silver +10.2c
Gold + $1.00
On the intraday charts they appear to to be breaking out into a new uptrend. As I speak the dow is running up and precious is pulling back.
This new uptrend will need the help from the dow to be firmly established.
One good thing to look forward to is that when the dow tanks, precious is going to the moon, that is the opposite of where the dow is going to be. This correlation between gold and dow confirms the mirror image posted in the Dow/Gold chart that I posted recently.
Another interesting comment is that if gold has found support and will fall no further then the dow has per see 'topped' and only has to turn and fall to propel gold upwards.
Time will bear this correlation out but as Cherrokee has said time is extremely short at the moment. A definitive failure in the dow in the next few days will confirm that this is the last chance to get onboard for the trip of a lifetime with precious. IMHO

Yes Nick, It's just your eyes going square. Go see the optometrist ;- ) ...

away...to see the obstacles in my way


A.Goose -- Here's a different time scale view...

BBL

Panda:
The chart says it all. 8000 is gone.

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Thanks for the 10:44 post. Interesting that the Saudis are miffed at Clinton's visit to Venezuela. The Middle East may not have as much oil clout as in the 70's, but they still have alot -- especially if they can afford to turn off the spigot. Your comments about AG I think are on the mark -- his greatest fear is all of that unregulated derivatives trading -- and the 1.X trillion per day trading in dollars. Sort of like having a high performance engine in your car, and not having the feel of how it handles! Would you take it for a spin on that mountain road?
I have attached the web site for the officual US DOE report on the World Oil Market. Hope it goes through. If not, use: *ttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo97/oil.html
Apparently the powers that be did not expect the 1996 oilprice surge, higher than the projected 2015 oil price. There is an extensive list of all new oil production sites, and when their output should be available to keep oil prices down. One item not mentioned in their projections is the environmental consequences of the developing world doubling world oil consumption by 2015. I see little activity on the alternative energy side, and doubt that there will be any until the next oil crisis. That is unfortunately how democracies work -- no street lights at the intersection until someone dies.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo97/oil.html

Panda - CNBC's spin on Boeing is interesting. Company losing money because of too many orders, higher raw material costs, slow deliveries. Sounds rather inflationary to me, like maybe an over heating economy! Reminds me very much of the early 70's, its deja vu all over again Yogi!

TO ALL: Boeing and ? A tid bit from a newsletter I get - Strategic Investment.

http://www.strategicinvestment.com if you want to look it over and subscribe.

the challenge of a shrinking economy

by Lord Rees-Mogg

Early this month he published his views on the global economy in the ( London ) Financial Times, in a series the newspaper described as dealing with "the challenge of a shrinking world." The key passage from Jack Welch states that "There's excess global capacity in virtually every industry. Change is getting faster." If Jack Welch says this, the rest of us had better sit up and take notice. There is no company that has a better view of the world than G.E.; there is no CEO of a major world industrial company who has more often called the shots correctly than Jack Welch.

This also fits the evidence of world trade and inflation. All the reports show that there is intense competitive pressure in all kinds of manufactured goods. The collapse of the Southeast Asian stock markets has partly been caused by pressure from low-cost Chinese exports. Japan Inc. has by no means gone out of business, though the Tokyo stock market still looks very sad. It is not only 50 percent below its all-time peak; it is 12.5 percent below its high of last June, and when last seen was still headed south. In the European Union, despite some recovery, unemployment is still at the social danger level of around 123 percent. Throughout the world the inflation rate is low relative to the level of economic activity.

James Davidson has been writing for years about the build up of deflationary forces in the world economy. I have been more cautious about this than he was, because I distrust the irresponsibility of governments even more than he does. How do you deflate a printing press? But Jack Welch is a pretty significant reinforcement to Jim's side of the argument. Overcapacity is deflationary; global overcapacity is globally deflationary.

When there is too much capacity, businesses which raise prices will rapidly lose market share; there is pressure to cut prices. Businesses have to resist wage demands; they have to cut their costs. When these influences are global, then there is no soft regional market left in which easy profits can be made.

JTF
A different perspective from the east. The site at the bottom has some excellent reading on Asia economics, rates and stocks.

Avid Chat
This is a typical posting on Internet in Asia: "Any sponsor for a trip to Russia-Iran-America.Going to Russia to buy some suoitcase nuclear-bombs. Going to Iran to sweet-talk some real hotheads to really go up in style. Then, put them on a plane straight to Soros' hometown, country, adopted home, and everywhere there has Soros' Open Society Foundation. ( Their mission to open up Asian countries to their continued economic manipulation and new-colonialism on a scale unseen in history:yes,the Evil Empire is alive and well ) . So when the new recruits to the rebel alliance finally devote their lives to our cause, the Jewish Darth vader will just be radioactive dust. So all I need is US$2m to carry out this holy mission on behalf of Asia so that the Great Satan will once again be defeated.May the force be with us.Death to Soros and America.

I am located in Asia. I am just informing you guys on sentiments on these side. I am independently minded. Not taking sides in racial or political matters.

The point I making is that with things so bad in Asia, Asian govts have to liquidate their US$ T-bills to save their own economies. Liquidity is getting tighter as interest rates are up. Therefore, US rates must go up if Asia sells US$ bonds.

Asian perspective:
http://home1.pacific.net.sg/~viclim/

China says not to blame for Southeast Asia's woes
BEIJING, Oct 22 ( AFP ) - China said Wednesday the yuan's low
level was not to blame for Southeast Asia's economic crisis and
Japan was much more at fault.
The official China Daily said the yuan's weakness "is a normal
measure needed for promoting China's economy."
It took issue with a recent article in the Japan Economic
Journal, which said an undervalued yuan in recent years had made
Chinese exports more competitive than those of Southeast Asia.
"It is widely agreed that bubble real estate industries, weak
governmental regulation of the banking sector and international
currency speculators were mainly responsible for the financial
crisis," the China Daily said.
"It is more justified to say that Japan, not China, was more
directly connected with the recent financial turmoil of Thailand."
The paper said the Thai baht, when pegged to the dollar, had
appreciated in value while the yen fell against the greenback.
"The Japanese newspaper's dishonest attitude is improper. The
international community should not be confused by such fallacious
argument."

HONG KONG, Oct 22 ( AFP ) - The economic upheavals in Asia caused
by currency turmoil will test social stability in the region, but
the risk must not be exaggerated, according to the latest survey by
the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy ( PERC ) , received here on
Wednesday.
"It is easy to preserve social stability during economically
good times; the task is more challenging during difficult times such
as many countries in the region are now experiencing," PERC analysts
said.
The economic crisis in Thailand sparked by the collapse of the
baht on July 2 has led PERC to re-evaluate regional countries on a
risk ladder of zero to 10.
"The economic crunch in Thailand has greatly raised the risk
that there could be either economically or politically-motivated
demonstrations in that country," the report says.
Thailand's risk rating is no longer in the middle of the ladder
but among the lower ranks with countries such as South Korea and
Indonesia which have a rating of between five and six.
"But we would not give the country a grade worse than seven,"
added PERC.
Singapore and Japan have the safest ratings of near one.
Compared with the 1996 report, the Philippines has shown the
greatest fall in risk perception, from six to four, while China has
eased from six to five.
India, Taiwan and Hong Kong have also grown more stable,
according to PERC, while Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and
Vietnam have all become more volatile.
"In general, the countries of Asia are likely to get through the
economic and political challenges facing their systems without
experiencing serious social unrest," PERC concludes.

...and finally the ball of string begins to unravel. A true market factors in all possible news/risks even to the extent that it overreacts to good/bad news. A market driven by hope, hype and greed listens to only what it wants to hear....this is a false market. The troubles in Asia were plain to see back in June/July but haven't yet been factored into the world's financial markets...ever since then we've been in a false market, lookout for a "correction".
Perhaps there'll even be a few brokers heading to the house of corrections.

Deja Vu All Over Again?!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/rca_msft.html

12:09 GINGRICH SEES LONG-TERM DEFLATIONARY CYCLE. ( From DBC )

SILVER SUPPLIES are getting tighter.

Wednesday October 22 11:55 AM EDT

NY precious metals mixed midday, silver recovers

NEW YORK, Oct 22 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were mixed midday Wednesday, after silver and gold recovered from early weakness, but platinum group metal ( PGM ) futures remained down, but off the morning's lows.

``There was some good dealer buying in silver which helped to trigger stops above $5.00 in the December contract, with silver lending rates rising again, and gold followed along for the ride, though most gold locals remain bearish,'' ABN Amro Chicago Corp's COMEX floor trader, Carlos Perez-Santalla said.

COMEX December silver was up 8.7 cents at $5.065 an ounce midday, after recovering from an early low at $4.945 to a morning high at $5.085.

In the bullion market spot silver was quoted $5.07/09, with one month forward lending rates moving up to around 3.25 pct midday from 3.05 pct early Wednesday.

COMEX warehouse silver stocks slipped a further 4,996 ounces to a new 12 year low at 134,515,715 ounces.

World silver demand has outpaced mine and scrap supply for eight years now, drawing down world inventories, analysts noted, sparking a 20 pct rally in silver prices over the past three months.

COMEX December gold was up 10 cents at $324.00 an ounce midday, after recovering from an early low at $323.10 to a morning high at $325.00.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted $322.70/20 an ounce, compared to the London Wednesday afternoon fix at $322.45, and the New York close Tuesday around $322.60/10.

In the past two weeks gold prices have drifted back from a three month high around $339.00 an ounce. Earlier in July this year, gold prices saw a 12 year low around $315.

In industry news, the World Gold Council ( WGC ) said Wednesday Dubai imported 45.364 tonnes of bullion in September, down from 57.504 in August, but up from 26.585 tonnes last September.

So far this year gold trade through Dubai to India and the East has reached record levels, with imports in the first nine month totalling 473.585 tonnes, up from 254.595 tonnes in the same period last year.

Dubai traders fear India's move, announced last week, to further de-regulate its domestic precious metals markets from January 1 will dampen their trade, but, after several days of price falls, gold and silver prices ended higher in Bombay overnight, on fresh seasonal buying ahead of the Diwali festival of lights.

In other industry news, Barrick Gold Corp ( ABX.TO ) , the world's second largest gold producer, reported third quarter earnings of $70 million, compared with $59 million or 16 cents a share, before accounting for a $385 million non-cash provision, which resulted in a bottom line loss.

Gold production for the quarter was 757,476 ounces, bringing the nine month total to 2.2 million ounces, in line with the company's target of three million ounces for 1997.

Cash operating costs fell to $177 an ounce compared to $203 last year.

Barrick's hedging program meant the company realized an average price of $420 an ounce for gold in the first nine months, an $80 premium over the average spot price of gold of $340 in the period.

NYMEX January platinum was down $2.00 an ounce at $423.50, while NYMEX December palladium was off $3.95 at $202.75.

``Platinum and palladium fell sharply on TOCOM overnight, but in the physical market we heard good Japanese buying in Europe and there's certainly good consumer bids at lower levels in the U.S.,'' one U.S. PGM dealer said.

In overnight news, BHP ( BHP.AX ) announced that is Hartley platinum mine in Zimbabwe made its first shipment of PGMs to refiners Johnson Matthey in the U.K.

It is expected shipments will be made once a week initially, stepping up to twice a week, when full production of 150,000 ounces a year of platinum and 110,000 ounces of palladium is reached by the end of 1998.

Wouldn't it be the perfect irony if the same year that the cooked up Nobel prize for economics was given for the mathematical equation that enabled derivative trading to blossom, derivative trading sunk the world economy?
Incidentally, Nobel never allocated a prize for mathematics ( his wife is said to have had an affair with a prominent mathematician ) but then nor did he allocate a prize for economics. This was invented by economist to dellude themselves with their dismal science.

BREAKING NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

Syndicates and India mystify the market
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/invest/ivcommod.html

Analysts give doomsday warning in Asean crisis
http://www.theage.com.au/daily/971022/bus/bus19.html

A negative for inflation -- ditto for the dollar
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/news/news1.html
Billionaire US currency speculator Mr George Soros was believed by some
traders to be leading the attack on the Australian dollar.

$A plunges US2 amid Asian turmoil
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/market/markets2.html

2pc fall forecast in Asian growth
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/world/world3.html

Australia the only Federation in world where States beg for tax money
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/news/news3.html

China, HK next in line for staggers
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/feature/feature1.html
The global economist for Zurich Insurance,
Chicago-based Mr David Hale, has suggested that Asian
devaluations could pressure other regions such as Latin
America into competitive devaluations.

Korea nationalises Kia Motors
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/world/world1.html

Thai army refuses to march in step with PM
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/world/world2.html

Red chips may be down as Asian crisis bites
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/world/world4.html

BHP steels itself for further grief as slide continues
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/invest/invest6.html

First Time float holders sucked in, ready to be wiped out
http://www.theage.com.au/daily/971021/bus/bus16.html

Normandy shrugs off weak gold Price
Ross Atkins ( who I know ) buys out foe Alan Birchmore
for 25c per share ( now controls St Barbara Gold Mine )
http://www.theage.com.au/daily/971022/bus/bus12.html
( To quote Ross: "You're not guilty until you run out of money" )

Kiwi
They had a formal stockbrokers bash in Sydney on Monday to celebrate the anniversary of '87. They must have had a bit too much to drink, cause the word that was going round, was that shares were going to be cheaper real soon. They will be rubbing thier hands in glee. Lots of big bucks coming up with brokerage out and in, and out and in, as people try and catch the bottom. I mentioned this to my broker and he just rubbed his hands and smiled. To these dudes, this coming period will be massively profitable to them. I'm sure they just love to churn those poor suckers on the end of the phone, sweating whether to dump and sell, or to hold on long term. I think they'll encourage their clients to sell high and buy low just to get double brokerage. At least some of them.

FWIW -- I hear the same comments from all of the local high tech companies in this area. The market is there for their 'stuff', and they can't make it fast enough because of insufficient/unqualified labor force. The few 'qualified' people left are being sought out now, the REAL fight for salaries is just around the corner... For now, 'they're' trying to convince people ( qualified, that is... ) that they're not worth as much as they are demanding. Fear of job loss is fading. I could go on, but let it suffice to say that this 'mix' is a 'positive' for 'stuff'. :- )

BBL..........

Gingrich is an absolute idiot, so when predicts deflation, it means
INFLATION is just around the corner........

Asian currency crisis effects flow
south By James Kirby ( Aust. Business Review Weekly )

Australia's leading exporters and overseas
investors are bracing for the fallout from the
currency crisis in South-East Asia. The first
effect has been to push up the price of
Australian exports.

But a wider consequence of the crisis will be its effect
on growth in the Asian economies, especially
Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. The crisis has forced
every Australian company dealing with South-East Asia
to make plans for dealing with a poorer region, where
economies are shrinking as the reality of public
spending cuts takes hold.
With the currency crisis still in full flow - the
International Monetary Fund is negotiating with
Indonesia and Thailand - Australian companies
have not yet calculated the effect on profits.
But it is clear that few companies will escape
unscathed; more than 16% of Australian exports go to
South-East Asia. A BRW survey, compiled by Ibis
Business Information from its Top 2000 database,
highlights the exposure to Asia of a string of
well-established industrial companies.

Although the major civil engineering groups such as
Transfield and Leighton do not appear in the Ibis tables,
these groups are also likely to be affected by a
slowdown in the region. Dozens of Asian infrastructure
projects - which have buoyed Australian engineering
groups for the past decade - are now being put on hold
while national governments struggle to get their
finances in order.

The resources sector could be better placed to ride out
the crisis. Commodities are subject to international
pricing trends, which may act as a buffer to Asian
problems. Also, Asian countries will be desperate to
build up exports when the crisis subsides, which should
underpin commodity demand.

Despite some setbacks there is a consensus forming
among stockbrokers that the Australian bank sector will
actually benefit from the crisis in the medium term.

Also missing from the Ibis tables are the major
companies in the tourism industry. With a sharp
appreciation of the Australian dollar against Asian
currencies, tourism-related ventures are certain to face
problems in the near future. These include hotel
developments and leisure facilities such as casinos.

Looking at the situation in reverse - assessing the
currency changes from the perspective of an Asian
investor in Australia - there may be advantages in
selling equity positions in Australian companies, which
may have appreciated by 20% to 30% since the crisis
began.

Indonesian and Malaysian companies have been
particularly active investors in the CBD property
markets in Sydney and Melbourne. But this is little
consolation to Australian companies, which have been
advised in recent years to invest in Asia. For the
majority of these groups the biggest fear is that the
currency crisis will trigger a full-blown recession. If that
happens, the current optimism among most companies
that the storm can be weathered could prove as fragile
as Asia's "economic miracle".

Australia's most exposed companies

Profit attributable to parent ( $'000 )
In Thailand

Pacific Dunlop 3,861
Pioneer International 3,103
McConnell Dowell 2,113
Concrete Constructions 1,884
BHP 1,500
BOC Gases 1,142
Wattyl 1,013
Morganite 786
AAPC 520
Qantas 368

In Indonesia

Coco-Cola Amatil 19,890
Aurora Gold 16,207
BHP 8,300
ANZ 6,800
Novus Petroleum 4,343
Washington H Soul Pattinson 3,495
Henry Walker 2,217
Boral 2,038
Clough 1,454
Discovery Petroleum 1,391

In Malaysia

Pacific Dunlop 17,214
BTR Nylex 13,098
Amcor 5,100
QBE Insurance 4,000
Pioneer International 3,800
Lemvest 1,652
Datacraft 1,192
Pacific BBA 1,121
Australian National Industries 1,043
Macmahon Holdings 1,013

Source: IBIS ( current at October 13 )

Why our currency bucks the trend
( Not for long!! )
Despite the scale and proximity of the Asian currency
crisis, the Australian dollar has been remarkably
resilient. Australia has made strenuous efforts to
integrate with the Asian region in the past decade, yet
the local market has clearly managed to "ring fence" its
reputation as a financial centre.

As Asian currencies plummeted against the United
States dollar in the past 12 months - by up to 50% in
the case of Indonesia - the Australian dollar slipped by
less than 10%. This fortitude in the face of a regional
crisis rests on two main factors - Australia's
deregulated currency market and a stable domestic
economy.





Copyright  1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine, October 20, 1997.

your 1245 post is this can you repost?

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What you should do:

If you feel this is a server problem and you wish to report it, please contact
webmaster@kitco.com with the following information:

The error message: 404--not found
The URL you were trying to access ( my guess is "/cgi-bin/comments/gold/ht" )
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The local time ( Wed Oct 22 10:26:13 1997 )
And any other information you think is relevant
You may access the main page at www.kitco.com

Steve I heard a rumour from my broker today that ANZ Bank has undisclosed bad debts in Asia, that is way it got dumped when the other banks flew. Thanks for your great article. More puts tomorrow.

Tolerant1 re 12:39 post: Do you have any information about the effect of fabrication costs on the use of silver in industry? I'm familiar with fab costs for commonly used forms ( grain, sheet, wire, etc ) but haven't a source for electronic parts, catalysts, batteries, bearings, lubricants et cetera. I'm conjecturing that the actual silver cost is a mere fraction of the total cost of industrial silver products but haven't a clue whether that fraction is 5% or 0.05%. I asked a similar question yesterday but didn't get any useful info from the poster who answered. I have one online reference for a source of the information but it is in the form of a printed book costing over $400 and printed in 1992...ancient history...... LGB: I'm not a participant in your flame wars.

CHEROKEE: Re: Asian stocks diversification. I am only now just starting
to vaguely do a little bit of research into them. No way would I invest in that area for some time. Probably well into 1998. I might even think of gearing the suckers then!!!!!!

GOLDEN CHEESECAKE ( I mean CHEESEHEAD ) :
Very interesting to note that inflation in Australia for the quarter was NEGATIVE 0.3%. Obviously the interest rates are wanting to go down, but
with the currency slowly dropping, the Aussie dollar will slow the fall off somewhat in the rates. We are now finding it hard to lend money out at the higher rates previously enjoyed. I cannot see how things are going to turn around. We are finally experiencing the effects of deflation. And it is NOT going to go away. We may experience some short term inflation, but that will disappear in the medium term as interest rates continue to drop, and it will become increasing harder to find people to lend all the money to. When the cost based profit squeeze starts to bite with falling prices, watch the stocks bleed to death!!

INTERESTING INFO: Coke is getting arrogant. My cousin who delivers Coke tells me that PEPSI is trying to buy market share in the Deli's/Corner stores by selling PEPSI at 60 cents a can ( A$ ) versus $1.20 for Coke. But they are NOT advertising it. I asked Andrew if he had told his sales managers. NO he said. WHY NOT I asked? We are just sh*t kicker delivery people. ( NOTE: sh*t used here in the colloquial Aussie form )
We collect our wages & go home. And they don't ask us.
THIS, dear Kitcoites, is where management in the new Internet world, are
neglecting their hands on, front line people, who are EXCELLENT sources of intelligence. They do not bother to ask. Yes, Andrew should tell them,
but why should he????

NICK ( Aussie ) . I had trouble linking into the HK Dow Jones site. It just came up, & would not allow me to do anything else. Got any other chart sites of the Asian stock markets?? Similar to Privateer etc? Any tips Captain Bill???

VRONSKY: Excellent Article & charts coming RCA to MSFT. Will be showing that to my clients this week. A real eye opener. A request: Have the
people who run the Gold Eagle site thought of beefing up their band width? It has been PAINFULLY slow to download for 4 months now, with all the 100,000s of people from 92 Countries that are obviously overloading the site. I look at your tempting titles on Kitco, go to download, then say, forget it, I can't wait that long for it to download. I must repent, I have not bothered with the Gold Eagle site for some time now. Which is a shame really. I have no problem with downloading speed with Kitco. Which tells me the problem is in your end. Just a bit of feedback.

DIARY change: Am not going away on business trip now. Which means I will be around for birth of baby.. Dennis Lyons, thanks for your email. My email system is playing up at the moment. Dennis, the Aussie dollar may
drop down to 67 cents in the medium term. ( reply to your email earlier ) .

223 - give me a few minutes

TO HUH: Have tested all these links. They all work. Maybe your bandwidth or ISP is a problem.

Syndicates and India mystify the market
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/invest/ivcommod.html

Analysts give doomsday warning in Asean crisis
http://www.theage.com.au/daily/971022/bus/bus19.html

A negative for inflation -- ditto for the dollar
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/news/news1.html
Billionaire US currency speculator Mr George Soros was believed by some
traders to be leading the attack on the Australian dollar.

$A plunges US2 amid Asian turmoil
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/market/markets2.html

2pc fall forecast in Asian growth
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/world/world3.html

Australia the only Federation in world where States beg for tax money
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/news/news3.html

China, HK next in line for staggers
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/feature/feature1.html
The global economist for Zurich Insurance,
Chicago-based Mr David Hale, has suggested that Asian
devaluations could pressure other regions such as Latin
America into competitive devaluations.

Korea nationalises Kia Motors
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/world/world1.html

Thai army refuses to march in step with PM
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/world/world2.html

Red chips may be down as Asian crisis bites
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/world/world4.html

BHP steels itself for further grief as slide continues
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971023/invest/invest6.html

First Time float holders sucked in, ready to be wiped out
http://www.theage.com.au/daily/971021/bus/bus16.html

Normandy shrugs off weak gold Price
Ross Atkins ( who I know ) buys out foe Alan Birchmore
for 25c per share ( now controls St Barbara Gold Mine )
http://www.theage.com.au/daily/971022/bus/bus12.html
( To quote Ross: "You're not guilty until you run out of money" )

Does anyone know where I can find daily/historical info on the amounts
of silver in the COMEX warehouse? I usually see it only in the PM
summaries from Yahoo or other news agencies ( where do they get it? ) . It doesn't seem to be on the NYMEX/COMEX site. Thanks.

NICK ( Aussie ) : We made some great money on ANZ Bank in past 5 months, but sold out a month ago. Great timing. New plays now Commonwealth & Westpac Banks short term. House of cards though. Am spending most of my time looking for stocks that are bottoming. Don't bother much with the top stocks any more, apart from working out which ones to sell ( most of them! ) I don't muck around with warrants etc.

Good night all....pillow is looking good at the moment. It is 2AM here. Am getting my training in for when I have to look after the new baby in December!!!

Wednesday October 22 1:13 PM EDT

Goldman sees dollar/mark at 1.60 by late 1998

NEW YORK, Oct 22 ( Reuters ) - Goldman Sachs & Co chief foreign exchange economist Jim O'Neill forecast a weaker U.S. dollar in 1998, as European central banks will focus on setting the stage for a strong European single currency while Japan will continue to run a large trade surplus.

``The dollar is a sell,'' O'Neill told a Goldman Sachs foreign exchange conference, while predicting that dollar/mark will retreat to 1.67 over the next six months and fall to 1.60 by late 1998, while dollar/yen will consolidate around 115.

``The European central banks have manipulated the dollar value for the past year, in order to ensure export growth,'' O'Neill said, pointing out this was important to help meet the budget requirements under the Maastricht Treaty.

``Now the European central banks have to sell you the idea of the euro,'' he stressed.

O'Neill said that in order to ensure that the euro will be strong when it is officially launched on January 1, 1999, the Bundesbank and other European central banks will tighten their monetary policies.

``The recent Bundesbank tightening was 20 percent for domestic considerations and 80 percent for the euro,'' said O'Neill, who predicted ``the Bundesbank is likely to raise rates by 20 basis points in December and other European central banks will move as well.''

O'Neill expected the real interest rate differentials to be a negative for the dollar because ``Federal Reserve policy is not preemptive, and by the time the Fed starts raising U.S. interest rates, if at all, this will not result in higher real U.S. interest rates because U.S. inflation would have started to creep up.''

Turning to Asian currencies, O'Neill said that Japan is likely to maintain a large trade surplus next year which would continue to weigh on dollar/yen. He sees dollar/yen at 120 in early 1998 and at 115 later in the year.

O'Neill described the Chinese currency as undervalued.

``It is pretty difficult to imagine that China and Hong Kong would keep different currencies. Perhaps the best thing for China is to accelerate the process of having one currency,'' O'Neill said, adding that this would avert a Hong Kong dollar crisis.

O'Neill remained somewhat bullish on the Canadian dollar, ``although not as much as before.''

``The Bank of Canada needs to tighten quicker than ( Fed Chairman Alan ) Greenspan,'' he concluded.

223 - try this, it's a start: http://www.cpmgroup.com/silver.html

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Re 12:22. Pretty strong stuff on the Asia net chats. I guess it is pretty clear that the "average" Asian feels like Dr. Mathathir ( SP? ) about foreign ( Western,European ) intervention. Looks like Dr. Mathathir has a first rate PR group, or our Western news media has the wrong spin.
It is pretty clear to me that the long term outcome of this currency crisis -- besides blaming someone else who is not there to respond -- is that there will be three world-wide trading blocks as we move into the millennium: Asia,Europe and the Americas. Pretty odd when you see the Japanese and Chinese discussing finances or business arrangements, given the history of that part of the world.

On 10/20/97 Vengold further increased its interest in Lihir Gold by purchasing shares in Niugini Mining, in which I believe Battle Mountain Gold also has an interest in.
Also Lihir report issued today.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/vengf_y00_1.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/10/22/lihry_y00_2.html

Question; Do you feel that the possibility of three distinct trade blocks is a positive for gold?

My take is that each of the three blocks would be very capable of handling their own particular economies. This have the positive effect of diluting the effect of those powers that control the globe for their own financial enrichment. my only concern is that the powers will create problems that may lead to major confrontations.
I'm an American who doesn't give one damn for companies who relocate their plants at the expense of our labor. While I believe in free trade, the key "is not at the expense of our own citizens".

ALL - Why did XAU & Au/Ag futures get snubbed at exactly 11:00 NY time? Looked like we were going great guns and then stopped. Any clues?

Question; Do you feel that the possibility of three
distinct trade blocks is a positive for gold?

My take is that each of the three blocks would be very
capable of handling their own particular economies. This
may have the positive outcome of diluting the effect of the powers who control the globe for their own financial
enrichment. My only concern is that the powers will
create problems that may lead to major confrontations.

I'm an American who doesn't give one damn for those companies who relocate their plants at the expense of our labor.
While I believe in free trade, the key "is not at the
expense of our own citizens".

tolerant1: Liked your 14:04 post. Jim O'Neill - Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs says ( and I quote ) :
"The European central banks have manipulated the ( US ) dollar value for the past year, in order to ensure export growth", O'Neill said, pointing out this was important to help meet the budget requirements under the Maastrict treaty.
So -- some professionals are saying that the dollar was boosted intentionally! My guess - by "selling" gold, among other things. Perhaps those Central Banks don't work together as closely as one might think. Perhaps the LBMA stuff discussed at Kitco is not so crazy after all!

JTF: Amazing isn't it? New paradigm, globalization, the Internet, smiling faces on all the politicians, and it all just boils down to yada, yada, yada.

The "newsmakers" all talk a good show, but let's see what they do when push comes down to shove. I think the term politically correct will go down with military intelligence as one of the great oxymorons of this time period.

All the world leaders will start pointing fingers, finding any scapegoat other than themselves. I just hope we don't get crazy and start up the weapons of war, to be sent to some country to kill some people you would probably have a great barbecue and beer with.

Jack: re Three trading blocks and gold. I am no expert in this area, but my impression is that if there are three well-defined trading blocks, each will have different priorities, and manipulation of a single "premier" currency -- hence gold as well -- will be more difficult. Please see my post immediatly below about dollar manipulation ( complements of tolerant1 ) .
For the sake of the average American, I hope this is so. We have enough inflation problems without further inflating our currency to stabilize the world's economy. We need a "basket" type world currency ASAP. No more pricing gold and oil in dollars only.

ABX reported - $0.19 before charge of $1.03 to close high cost mines.

Does anyone know which geographical area of the US contains the largesat lode of silver? Would appreciate the help.

Anyone have some input on the XAU's two-day pattern of late? ( The mid-morning bump of 1 to 2 points and then a slide-ways move through the afternoon ) - Is there volume behind this as bullion trickles lower?
TIA ( thanks in advance ) cmh

LGB, Larry mentioned gold price being reported mostly when it was
down. I noticed a similar phenomenon in New York about a year ago.
I would hear of gold being down for several days in a row, while the
price was essentially unchanged. I never considered attributing this
to any kind of conspiracy, but just assumed that the prices tend to
go up during the hours when I am not listening. ( I can imagine you
folks asking me to stop listening altogether. )

It would make perfect sense if the financial industry deliberately
tries to underplay any upmoves in gold. They have too much at stake
in the financial markets, and any shifting of public interest into
gold is hazardous to their wealth.

JTF: What kind of JOB do you have that you can post from WORK all day and every day??? Don't know if I'd want YOU working for me!!

Broker being interviewed on CNBC picks Gold stocks "they can't go much lower" "..mines are being closed demand still high..." we all agree with him me thinks.
CRB +1.67 @ 245.44
GSCI oil weighted up +3.30
Can it happen here? Heng Seng down -15% this month already.

Goldman Sachs calling for a ONE pt. increase in interest rates 98. Remember they should know i.e., Sec.Treas. Robert Ruben, former Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs. Bonds not much different by end of year 7% in 98. Boeing can't keep up with demand, not enough material or skilled labor.

AG acts next week?

BOB M: How about Utah ?

BOB M: ...and Northern Idaho.

Sceptic: I am responsible for a large facility -- quiet sometimes -- but mayhem sometimes. You wouldn't want my job -- at the beck and call of some world famous clients -- around the clock. This week has been relatively quiet ( so far ) . Another reason I am on is what is happening in SE Asia may affect my job. Why do you have time to post?

How come you have time to post?

BOB: try this. i hope it helps.

http://sgk.phast.umass.edu/physci/geo.html

Boy,that was quick!! I can post cause I made so much money in the 15 year bull market that I don't have to work and thus have NO job.

Nick: Gold will indeed surge when we enter a LONG-LIVED bear market for U.S. financial assets. Brief sharp corrections will not do. The smart money must perceive that the fundamental LONG-TERM trend has changed before investment demand for gold takes off. Eliot Janeway was right on the money in arguing that gold moves opposite to the currency ( and financial markets ) of the dominant power.

I agree with Milhouse that CB machinations are not the fundamental cause of the gold bear. Still they and their short selling friends have undoubtedly made it more severe.

High Ho SilverL

In the silver market, warehouse stocks continue to dwindle. Since June of this year, 70 million ounces have been withdrawn and stocks now stand at 134,500---the lowest point in 12 years. Today a story has surfaced that two bullion dealers--one in New York and one in London--are suspected of cornering the silver market. We have always suspected a Middle-East connection, as rumors are continuing to circulate that much of the buying in the silver market is originating in the Middle East and there have been confirmed deliveries to that region. All of this is setting up silver for a big run.

excerpt from www.usagold.com

All; I feel that the force feeding of globalization creates internal problems in many countries, that could very well split them in half.
If the process of globalization occured naturally and had the consent of the populations involved, my feelings would be of caution.
The process of Globalization "if in fact" advantageous would have a better chance of success if equal footing was felt by those who would accept it.
Common sense seems to indicate that this glorifying and bashing of currencies is the means that the powers are using to force globalization on their terms - while world citizenry has little say.
The reason that I respect Dr. Mahathir is that he gives me the feeling that he wants independence from those forces.
While his opinions are not popular, who is to say they are right or wrong - it's an indivuals own decision.

Skeptic ( @ JTF ) ID#280192:
Congratulations with your success, I assume you have cashed in and are buying gold now that you are posting on this page. You will truly be independent of employment in a few months if this is the case.

On CNBC, Grant's Asia Observer "it's going to get worse in Hong Kong.... Panic like attitude selling blue chips..I normally like to buy when this happens I am now rethinking that approach..." Merger of Hong Kong and China currency! "Lower prices will cause deflation here"
But CQB is up to 17 was @ 13 not to long ago.
Skeptic do you own any bananas?

Later, have to go to work for awhile.

Just heard a talking head from Grant's INTEREST RATE OBSERVOR on CNBC warn about a DEFLATIONARY SUNAMI on its way to the US and Canada! He believes that Hong Kong WILL decouple it s currency from the US DOLLAR and place UNBEARABLE pressure on the Chinese to devalue their currency as well to compete with the rest of Asia which noiw is undercutting Chinese exporters because of their plunging currencies! This would of course be catastrophic for Korea and Japan as well! Friends, THIS IS A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION that is obviously spinning OUT OF CONTROL! No wonder AG wants to meet with Congress on the 29th! Please, if you haven't already done so, begin to SELL your US STOCKS AND BONDS before this wave sinks them too! Now is the time for diversification into HARD ASSETS ( Read GOLD ) !!
All paper will eventually be devalued if not destroyed by this growing deflationary wave which will panic CB's into printing even MORE of the PAPER STUFF in a last ditch all-out effort to save th3e global trading system from TOTAL COLLAPSE!! This time, the SKY REALLY IS FALLING!!

Skeptic: Perhaps you can help us all by letting us know your investment methods -- since you were obviously successful. I was dumb enought not to take an active role in my investments until about three years ago -- too busy moving around the country with development of my career. This site tends to be excessively bullish on gold -- with obvious undesireable investment consequences. I was turned off nearly 30 years ago by my dad's persistent "gloom and doom" approach to investing. It is quite clear that to be successful and be able to retire as you have, that one needs perspective, and know when to invest in a variety of areas.

Jack -- I can almost sympathize with Dr. Mahathir in the regards of wanting to keep sovereignty, however, when one makes his bed with dogs, one must expect to become flee-bitten! The Doctor should address the REAL problem; That is in providing his country and citizenry a debt based currency which could be manipulated in the first place! Perhaps these 'leaders' will someday learn from their own idiocy! That is if they are not first strung up by their own citizenry!

HERR STEVE @PERTH--Viele dank for your personal CONFIRMATION of my repeated warnings about the coming DEFLATION to the US!! You're right on the money , mein Freund, DEFLATION IS HERE AND IT WON'T GO AWAY UNTIL THE CB'S of the world PANIC AND BEGIN A LAST DITCH EFFORT TO INFLATE THIER WAY OUT! WATCH THE PRECIOUS YELLOW SOAR THEN!!!

To:GC - Agree with your prognosis. I am still not sure if we are heading for a deflationary collapse or an inflationary one. The world debt, especially ours, is inherently deflationary, however, take a look at what is happening to our money supply ( M3 ) . It is exploding at an annual rate of almost 13%. In the long run ( 6-12months? ) this rate is directly proportional to inflation. I think that the presses have been turned on. See if the FRB can inflate fast enough to stop deflation. Regardless, gold will be the winner in either case. The basic laws of economics have not been repealed; just suspended for a while by FRB/Gov interference.

HERR STEADY--I agree with you, mein Freund, the presses have already been turned on full tilt! However, it's my contention that all that paper stuff is still finding its way into the US STOCK MARKET BUBBLE where it will be eventually DESTROYED in a vicious grinding bear market if not CRASH! This, of of course will make any CB attempt to INFLATE the world out of this mess even MORE DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE! I'm starting to see the whites of AG's eyes! And what I see is FEAR OF MAINTAING CONTROL OF WORLD EVENTS AND, oh yes, PRICE STABILITY!!!

PLease go back and read NICK's 12:22 post in which he provides ample anecdotal evidence that ASIA BLAMES THE WEST ( Read US ) and George Soros for all its current and future troubles!! If only a fraction of this anger and hatred for the west is carried out in fact and not just threatened, WE'S IN FOR SOME TERRIFYING YEARS IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE! El Nino will be the least of our worries! I hope the US can whether the storm!

A perceptive observation is contained in Spud Master 09:09 short post . I would encourage those who have not read it to do so. It would explain Warren Buffet's move into US Treasury bonds. The October 29 JEC hearings featuring A.G. will approximately coincide with the 1-year anniversary of his "irrational exuberance" warning ( Dec 1996 ?? ) .

If as a result of his testimony to the JEC on Oct. 29, the markets have turbulance and cry foul, A.G. can say the markets were warned 1-year ahead with 2 more subsequest warnings. Don't fight the ( private ) FED.

Golden Cheeshead: Thanks for your interesting post on Grant's interest rate observer. The scenario you describe sounds like a relatively slow motion deflationary process in goods reaching our shores -- did the newsletter describe how this would come about? Ie, what to watch? The dollar? Interest rates? Will it be bullish for the stock market ( short term ) - Tsunami wise?

The inimitable Gene Inger, CNBC financial celebrity, has become cautiously bullish on the stock market. As usual his words of wisdom are well worth the read:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger1021.html

HERR JTF--He didn't say, but if you'd like MHO, I think short term the dollar will continue to be strong ( flight to safety ) , bond yields lower
( flight to quality ) , and stocks lower ( fear of falling corporate earnings ) . Longer term--DOLLAR MUCH LOWER ( TO SAVE OUR COLLAPSING AUTO INDUSTRY ) , BOND YIELDS MUCH HIGHER ( TO SAVE OUR COLLAPSING DOLLAR ) , and STOCKS MUCH LOWER ( falling corporate earnings, rising interest rates and collapsing debt bubble ( read MARGIN CALLS ON HOME EQUITY LOANS, CREDIT CARDS, AUTO LOANS, rising unemployment, soaring US debt, rising balance of trade deficit ad nauseam! ) AND!!!!! ARE YOU READY FOR THIS--SOARING GOLD PRICES ( fear, panic, safety, store of value ) .

One of the Forbes financial columnists suggests in the latest issue that T-bill investors use gold to hedge their portfolis from declining REAL interest rates. The basic argument is that REAL interest rates are the primary factor influencing gold prices. These rates are quite high now, but if they drop for whatever reason gold should rise.

There is much truth to this argument. Real interest rates were considerably lower during the 1993 gold bull than they are today. They were lower still in the 1970s ( and were actually negative for a year or two if memory serves ) .

pyramid: What are you predicting? A rise in interest rates? What I don't understand is how our AG can inflate the dollar overseas, without leakage into our economic system at home. Ideas?

HERR JTF--Those foreign dollars are currently a store of value and medium of exchange for CB's and third world nations all over the world, BUT should the US destroy their store of value status through massive inflation--they will be turned in like there's no tomorrow for the PRECIOUS METALS or return to the states as a legitimate claim on US goods and services! Then we'll all learn a new term--HYPERINFLATION!!

HERR JTF--Those foreign dollars are currently a store of value and medium of exchange for CB's and third world nations all over the world, BUT should the US destroy their store of value status through massive inflation--they will be turned in like there's no tomorrow for the PRECIOUS METALS or return to the states as a legitimate claim on US goods and services! Then we'll all learn a new term--HYPERINFLATION!!

Gold stocks did quite nicely today in view of bullion's 30 cent drop. In fact the gold stocks have held up exceedingly well since bullion began to slide a few weeks ago. Looks like strong accumulation to me. Buying the dips still is the correct strategy for the gold stocks and mutual funds

Gold has closed lower 8 days in a row now, but I'm actually optimistic that a turn around is near. Nobody else on the floor thinks gold can stage a rally but I'm hanging in there!

The following makes another case for digital receipts of gold.

Jully - An except from Strategic Investment by - Lord Rees-Mogg

Of course, the question is, have the forces of deflation been permanently hog-tied by central bankers, or will deflation eventually prevail? My belief is that deflation will prevail. This is certainly the logic of the Information Revolution, as Lord Rees-Mogg and I argue in The Sovereign Individual. As cybermoney comes into use, central bankers will lose their capacity to arbitrarily expand credit and regulate the money supply. Indeed, there is some reason to expect that the currency of preference in the Information Age will be encrypted digital receipts for gold. In other words, digital money may be an asset which is not someone else's credit. The emergence of digital money will be an important part of the process by which market forces ultimately prevail over politics.

JTF - overseas inflated dollars coming home to roost? Ha. I wouldn't doubt that USGOV/Fed have been pouring $100, $50 and $10 bills into Russia to prop up that rotten carcass. How would inflation of US$ inside of Russia manifest itself - the poor Russians hold onto them AS IF they are gold. Instead they are just more bogus paper like the Russian ruble.
Domestic inflation has been soaked up by the stock market.
Asian dollar inflation has been sucked into Japanese purchases of Treasury notes.

USGOV/Fed have been running quite a nice litte scam. It falls apart when a ) The Asians realize their US Treasury notes aren't worth crap, or
b ) The US Stock Market collapses and people pull ( or try to anyway ) out their miracle earnings, or
c ) The Russian economy becomes saturated with US$, or
d ) The European ECU comes on line and the oversea dummies buy that worthless piece of paper in lieu of their even more worthless local debt-based paper ( you Indonesians, Thais, Singaporeans listening? ) .

The slamming of gold/silver/platinum etc. will be reach a fever pitch in the media as the rest of the world *FINALLY* sees that in exchange for their TANGIBLE THINGS we in America have lived like Kings & Queens ( cough ) in exchange for worthless dollar bills and even more worthless Treasury notes.

TO ALL: If you have not read The Great Reckoning or the Soverign Individual, I can say they are two very thought provoking books. Mr. Davison and Lord Rees-Mogg have some very interesting ways to look at the bizzare times we live in.

Thankyou!

This study gives material support to "ANOTHERs" hypothesis that there is a definite relationship between stable oil prices and gold's dwindling value in past years - the LBMA mystery continues, albeit another onion-layer of subterfuge peeled back:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/gold_cost_oil.html

223: your welcome. hope it was useful.

Golden Cheesehead: Yes that would probably be the way it happens -- currency crises outside the US, and US dollars start coming home, first in trickles, and then possibly in a torrent -- possibly like what happened to the British pound in the 30's. We got a small taste of this during the Mexican peso crisis a few years ago - only $16-20 billion. The dollar would start to drop, and interest rates would rise. Gold/gold stocks would rally if this process occurs slowly enough, and the markets would fall, at first slowly, and then more rapidly - depending on how high interest rates go up. If the markets crash, so would the precious metals stocks, only to rally some more on the other side. I doubt that interest rates would have to rise as much as they did on 1987.

Isn't the net great? We're all aware of what's going on, much more effectively than in the old days. This is what the awakening is all about! And I can do this while I am handling two VIP "emergencies" at work!

JTF re: your post of Oct. 21@19:04...I think we are getting closer to understanding what at first seemed like a riddle wrapped in an enigma. I agree that the word "conspiracy" is not necessarily the correct word to describe the relationship which as the Sheik has described has been nurtured between the Americans and Middle East respecting oil and gold. As you correctly point out is the inability for us, despite our healthy intuition, to point to any evidence which supports our theory that the Central Banks have in fact "sold" or transacted gold for oil. We may never have such information nor do "official" statistics reveal such truths. This is unfortunate. My concern is that we lack confidence in any of the so-called "official" gold statistics produced by the World Gold Council and can even question those of the more respectable Gold Field Mineral Services in London.

Our challenge is to attempt to reveal the connection between gold, oil and the US dollar with the little statistical evidence at our disposal. As you suggest, no one on Kitco or Gold Eagle has done this to date...

Nevertheless, even without such analysis, if we ( you, I and other astute analysts on Kitco ) are correct in our intuition, we can then benefit from positioning our megre portfolios to take advantage over the "cat being let out of the bag" revelations on the LBMA.

No matter how you slice this issue there is little question that enormous pressure has been built up on both gold and oil prices to rise and rise in a very significant way. The interests of the powerful oligarchy is of course to maintain the illusion of stability knowing full well the vulnerability of the present system to "inflation" on both scare commodities of gold and oil.

I welcome your continued posts and discussions on this subject. We are learning in a very mutually beneficial way... That is what I enjoy so much about Kitco!

kuston, re the story I posted yesterday, you posted a 01:21 refuting the facts of the story with some inane drivel. Just for clarification, the danger from overpopulation of satellites and space debris has nothing to do with any of it raining down on someones head, and everything to do with disrupting or even temporarily halting internet communications, business communications, phone comms. etc should a worst case scenario develop.

The concept is that a collision might fragment and change the orbit of tracked objects creating a "domino" effect. Larger and larger fields of debris on erratic orbits creating potentials for more impacts, etc. etc.

Of course, virtually everything else in Kustons post was incorrect as well. We do not have "10,000 miles" of space in which to put the Low Earth Orbiting satellites. The systems and technology employed require a fairly narrow window of orbital distance.

The fixed Geostationary satellites we have in space now, are approx. 22,000 miles up, must be equatorial, and the slots are so precious and few that millions of dollars are negotiated and paid for each slot, among countries and satellite corporations.

As to Teledesic and Globalstar staellites "not existing", this will come as a major shock to my company who is putting several Globalstar satellites in orbit less than 2 months from now, and will ultimately deploy all 48 in less than a year. Teledesic has a very agressive schedule also, though they are a ways off. Their constellation will be quite large. there are at least a dozen other large constellations in the works.

As I already mentioned, the LEO constellation concept is quite new, a fairly extreme departure from past satellite technology. Instead of a few fixed satellites, ( and around 10,000 other "space junk" objects ) to track, you'll have hundreds of LEO satellites whizzing aroud the earth in a relatively narrow band of space, at high velocity.

And for the record, a "softball size" chunk of material encountering ANYthing at hypervelocity means vaporization of the small object and probable massive destruction of the larger one. Potentially you could turn one satellite into hundreds, all in various degrading orbits. these could impact other satellites making hundreds more, etc. etc. It only takes a grain of sand size particle to do damage at hypervelocity.

Is this worst case scenario going to happen thus disrupting communications on Earth, just as we become completely dependant on it? Probably not, but it's a possibility worth being aware of. We've lost many satellites in the past, with definite consequences. Our GOES West for example had to be replaced last year after it died, and now we're no longer "blind" re West Coast weather.

Tolerant, Enjoyed your post on latest silver developments. Maybe that's why SSRIF was up around 10% today hmm? What happened to Platinum today? Why did it take such a beatin... anyone know?

JTF: If you don't mind my asking,how old are you? My method: value investing,staying in LONG-term,and not chasing the latest trend or fad.
Highrise ( 16:20 ) I own 8 bananas but they will soon be gone ( potassium you know )

Pack Protector - Great post! If other currencies are in worse shape than the dollar, then the dollar run will be delayed. I think since Yeltsin is talking about lopping 3 zero's off the ruble, we don't need to worry about those dollars in Russia! I think outside the US the wild card is Japan -- if they think they need cash to jumpstart their economy, they might sell more treasuries. The only problem with that is -- we are their biggest traded, and if they tank the dollar, who will they trade with? Do they have enough low cost manufacturing in other parts of SE Asia to do this?
Looks like the most immediate scenario is one I ( and others ) mentioned several posts ago -- a cheap goods Tsunami from SE Asia washing up on our shores. This will adversely affect any US companies with similar products that do not have access to cheap ( foreign ) labor. Does our economy have the strength to handle this? If not, the subsequent drop in US markets will trigger withdrawals by foreign investors, and a bear ( or worse ) market. In this scenario, interest rates would drop, rather than rise. Perhaps our AG is anticipating this, and wants to push the market down before it crashes.

GCH ( 16:32 ) Heard it many times before and you know what,I doubt it!

And some more info -

Gold Mining Outlook

by Steven Jon Kaplan

Updated @ 5:20 p.m. EDT, Wednesday, October 22, 1997.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Precious metals ended mostly lower on Wednesday, while commodities were moderately higher. Gold fell thirty cents, silver gained 5.5 cents to move above five dollars per ounce, platinum lost $4.30, and palladium dropped $5.20. As long as commodities remain strong, any declines in precious metals will be temporary.

As the price of gold has been falling, volume has simultaneously been declining; total gold futures volume on the COMEX averaged four times the current volume during the brief rally at the end of September. This is typical of a market in which a critical core of investors are seriously considering making an allocation to a particular asset but are reluctant to actually commit their capital until a precise upside level is broken and held. In such a scenario, once the critical level is regained, volume picks up considerably and the rally can be extended. Ironically, then, gold will find it much easier to move from $340 an ounce ( just above its 200-day moving average ) to $380, or even all the way from $340 to $420, than from its current level to $340.

LGB - Profit taking, Japan 'ironing out contracts with russians' ( yeahright ) , gold suks now, is what happened ( maybe ) to Plat. BUY AT THE DIPS

Gold - You are a dog and when you Rally I WILL SELL...

away...back.to.work


Ted, big game tonight, EH?

EB: You bet yer bippy there's a BIG game tonight....

Pak Protector, Golden Cheesehead: I think the most likely scenario is the cheap goods Tsunami, then the market drop, then the drop in the dollar, rather than a dollar crash up front. Golden Cheesehead -- I think what is happening will be slower than what you forsee ---but I will be watching the dollar nonetheless!
Skeptic - how old am I? - I am in my early fifties, and should have done what you presumably did - buy and hold. I was too busy working, and missed out on the bonanza -- until the 1993 gold rally. I would love to do that now -- but I don't know what to buy and hold --- given what is happening. I'm not sure buy and hold will work now, and I am not a day trader. Any suugestions, Sceptic?

"The Onion PARADOX" peels yet another layer away from the eventual truth of the LONDON BULLION MARKETING ASSOCIATION...:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron1020.html

Golden Cheesehead -- Got your 'foxhole' dug? If not, you better get real busy doing so, 'cause the Tsunami ain't gonna wait on nobody to move before it comes ashore! And, it WILL be BIG! Food, clothing, housing, healthcare, transportation, work, ---- everything being affected drastically. Kind of like a hurricane coming through your area, but the problems lasting very, very much longer, and the impact of it being world wide! Who's left outside of it to help pick up the pieces? Just the Jack-Boots of the world?

As to the question of the LMBA, oil for gold, etc., I find the question becoming rather irrelevant in the sense that in the end, it just doesn't matter; An exercise in futility. The crap hits the fan anyway and if one isn't prepared, then one can say that you got crapped upon. You know the Tsunami is on its way. Do you really stand on the beach, scratch your beard, and ask what caused it? I'd rather think that there would be more 'important' things to be doing at that time, like MOVING your butt along, and quickly! We are at the point in time of 'shooting first and asking the what and why' later. A month or a year too early beats the H__L out of being one day too late! Besides, if you get the job done early, perhaps you'll have a 'bit' more time to stand on the beach scratching your beard and pondering the imponderables, if you even then care.

All: Of course -- Buying and holding gold will do for those who already have enough assets to retire. I have 1/3 of my assets in a safe place -- but I would like a little more return on the rest!

Would anyone be kind enuf to give me sites of asian net chats? thanx..

Posted on the World Gold Council

When Would U.S. Ease Monetary Policy?

September 12, 1997 - Gold Monitor, Murenbeeld and Associates

Speaking at Stanford University the evening of September 5, Greenspan recounted some of the Fed's responses to key events since becoming chairman in 1987. On the stock market crash of October 1987: "Unlike many uncertain situations that have confronted monetary policy, there was little question that the appropriate central bank action was to ease policy significantly." On the commercial property price bust of the late 1980s and early 1990s: "Not unexpectedly, our policy response was to move toward significant ease...a stimulative monetary policy was deliberately maintained well into the early expansion period" ( the post 1990-91 recession period ) .

My point? There can be little doubt that a stock market crash today will meet with a similar, dramatic easing of monetary policy. Indeed, the Fed's only response to financial calamity is one of dramatic policy ease - the Fed has no other policy options. Given that the Fed has been relatively tight ( witness the dollar, the yield curve, and the recent low growth of the monetary aggregates ) a sudden, stock market-induced relaxation of policy could do wonders for the gold price. Such has been our view, and Greenspan would appear to confirm the basic tenants of this view.

Of course, it isn't clear that there is a financial calamity on the near term horizon. Surveying developments around the world however ( the Japanese 1997 II GDP contraction, the SE Asian currency crisis, fiscal contraction in Europe ) suggests that the potential for a significant shock in the financial markets is not insignificant. The U.S. dollar, being too high, is also adding to worries that earnings of the key Dow stocks will disappoint. And U.S. officials are publicly chastising the Japanese again for a lack of action on domestic market liberalization and a rising trade surplus. We'll see. My view is that U.S. monetary policy is as likely to turn sharply stimulative as it is to be tightened in a "pre-emptive" move to contain future inflation.

As an aside, let me note that in the same speech Greenspan stated that gold was once the anchor for monetary policy, prior to WWI, "but it was eventually abandoned because it restrained the type of discretionary monetary and fiscal policies that modern democracies appear to value". Indeed! A gold standard monetary system would not allow the Fed to ease monetary policy dramatically in the face of financial calamity, hence - as Milton Friedman argued - the Depression. If any of you "long wave" theorists want to bet against another depression buy gold ( the Kondratieff wave suggests that we are overdue for another depression ) . Its a sure bet that U.S. officials will not wait 3-4 years before easing monetary policy ( or revaluing gold as in the case of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 ) in the event of a financial/banking crisis with depression-like implications.

15 years ago people also said maybe NOW is not the time to buy and hold too! Let's see,buy RD and forget you ever bought it for the next 15 years and you'll end up with something! STOP trying to out-think the markets as it will get YOU nowhere!

Interesting little charts in WSJ today showing past 3 year SP 500 PE ratios rising from around 16 in 1995 to 23 now, and then a chart on Dividend yields showing them declining from 2.9% in 1995 to 1.6% now. Stocks have pushed a little too far. I sold my Magellan today after a 2 day play. Back in cash and metals.

George, since you follow this closely is it interesting that on yesterday's stock rally, we had a "New High" to "New Low" ratio of around 6 or 7 to 1, when it has been running 20 to 1 or more for many weeks earlier? Does this indicate a further running out of steam in the DOW bull? I think it does.

Also starting to notice a widening gap on the "call" side in the Gold & Silver "Put:Call" ratio. Especially for silver. Might have to start taking some of that "call" action pretty soon myself!

George Cole: Re your comment about the Forbes analyst suggesting gold as a hedge for declining REAL interest rates. Real rates can decline either because inflation increases or the nominal rate comes down while inflation stays steady. It seems to me that the hedge would only apply in the case of inflation increasing and dropping the real rate as the nominal rate remains steady. If the government in its wisdom dropped nominal rates as inflation remained steady, the stock markets would suck up the cash as they have been doing and gold would drop. Am I missing something?

My last post from the World Gold Council site. Did anybody else get nervous about the mention of the executive order remonitizing the US dollar with gold, considering Bubba, our trustworthy President would be sighning it.

Asian economies

The price of scrap steel is up 10.3% from this time last year; most scrap is exported to Asia--------

Everytime I've been to Las Vegas there have been these Korean guys gambling in Baccarat at $125,000 a hand an LOSING!!!!!!!!!

The guys wife was usually siting in a chair and very bored with the whole thing. If any of you have been to Las Vegas recently is this still true.

Alan Greenspan watches scrap steal prices because Jay Gould the 1800's rail road barron did

tolerant1: Did you say remonetarizing the dollar with gold? What should we be looking for at the World Gold Council site?

Has anyone noticed on DBC market monitor, oil up 56 cents.
Looks good to me.

claiming someone is Cornering the silver mrkt with stocks as low as they are now is silly. If the stcoks were low enough that comment could be said about anyone who owned an OZ

Asia is in one heck of an inflationary collapse. Think of how fast oil prices are rising in their currency or food imports or steel scrap or lumber etc. On top of this their income is dropping.....the worst of both worlds inflation and depression

FROM MY POST BELOW

As an aside, let me note that in the same speech Greenspan stated that gold was once the anchor for monetary policy, prior to WWI, "but it was eventually abandoned because it restrained the type of discretionary monetary and fiscal policies that modern democracies appear to value". Indeed! A gold standard monetary system would not allow the Fed to ease monetary policy dramatically in the face of financial calamity, hence - as Milton Friedman argued - the Depression. If any of you "long wave" theorists want to bet against another depression buy gold ( the Kondratieff wave suggests that we are overdue for another depression ) . Its a sure bet that U.S. officials will not wait 3-4 years before easing monetary policy ( or revaluing gold as in the case of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 ) in the event of a financial/banking crisis with depression-like implications.

All Ordinaries 8:15PM -4.4 -0.16%
India 7:45AM -34.29 -0.83%
Indonesia 5:00AM -9.735 -1.89%
Japan 8:15PM -106.89 -0.60%
New Zealand 8:13PM -29.76 -1.13%
Sri Lanka 4:38AM -1.10 -0.14%

I guess you could roughly say " if it's open, it's down". This is the start of their day, doesn't look like the strength of the Dow is comforting them much. Let us see how this round around the world tonight.
Hang Seng -- not open yet, 3:55AM it's sitting at 0.0 waitng for the bell.

LGB - you sure do have a way with words. I love the way you add words
here and there to prove your point. I never mentioned LEO last night,
I said satelites.

http://dspace.dial.pipex.com/town/plaza/he13/orbtypes.htm
35,786km for a GEO vs. less then 2,000 km for a LEO and there are
all sorts of working orbits inbetween.

As for your company "Boeing" putting up the GlobalStar birds in a couple
of months we'll see. They have one small problem to overcome first: the
Ground Operational Control Center ( GOCC ) isn't done. It's already
overbudget by twice and behind schedule by months.

Teledesic? How are they going to launch? Every launch facility in the
world is booked for the next 5/7 years. It's a pipe dream.

"Virtually everything else in Kustons post was incorrect as well" - please
point these incorrections out and I will withdraw them or defend them - unlike
some of the other posters here.

Like your style.
I for one will not be sorry when the Yankee pyramid scheme comes unstuck and they will be made to repent on their lazy, polluting, energy-sucking, exploitive, manipulative, rammed-down-your-throar-righteousness and capitalism in it's repulsive nakedness will be revealed as the scam that it is am.

Richard- I think that the most tell tale sign of deflated real estate prices in the Us is the new tax law that now allows people to "buy down" and not pay taxes on the difference. Our tax laws for so many years were inflationary to the real estate market, but look out in the next few years especially high priced homes.....

Anyone?? where to go to see overseas markets real time,i.e.Hong Kong,Taipei,Tokyo....

In looking at all of the various comments it is clear that there is no shining light as to what is happening. This is exactly what happens when currency backed by confidence is the "money" of the day.

Clearly, if the reserve, cb's and politicians could not print money at will, we would not be in this mess. Gold is the only real money the world has ever known.

Gold is money, money is gold. A money system backed 100% backed by gold. Any paper notes, 100% backed by gold redeemable at any bank, anywhere in the world.

World money, for the people of the world. The bankers have had their day with finances and in each and every instance - eventual destruction of the paper based on their lies and greed, end result, depression or worse, war based on the empty argument which is placed at a innocent scapegoats feet. "Oh, we didn't do it, "THEY" did."

The reason banks and politicians hate gold has been stated by Greenspan over and over and over again. I am sure each of you has read the quote on the gold-eagle web site. For those of you that have not:

"The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists ( government bureaucrats ) to use the banking system as an unlimited expansion of credit. In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation... Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process."

  Alan Greenspan

With the advent of the computer and capacity for digital receipts for gold, we now have something better than the gold standard, far better. Electric gold, no muss, no fuss, instant transfer.

My soapbox is creaking.

Concerning WGC and GFMS, I am of the opinion that GFMS is too conservative and understates gold demand in the neighborhood of 400 tons. In fact, I believe that gold demand and the defecit are much higher than is commonly believed, somewhere between 1,100 and 1,400 tons.

There are massive unrecognized official flows to the gold market which act to suppress the gold price by as much as $100 an ounce in my estimation. If GFMS does indeed understate demand, then the gold market clears in two years time, above $600. If GFMS 700-ton deficit is right, then the market clearing price is closer to $500. IMO, we're getting close if not already there, to the point where the flow of official gold will slow for an extended period of time. The gold price will go far higher than most will believe possible.

It looks like a good day tomorrow. In Toyko gold/silver/platinum are up

Paladium is mixed

Yo, Mr. Kiwi. What are you clothed in?

jfklasd -- Inflationary collapse or deflationary collapse. Doesn't matter except in perspective. I've claimed before that inflation/deflation are the two faces of the same coin; A debt coin. A coin loaned into existence with interest attached. One that is 'negotiable' in 'value'. The bottom line in it all is liquidity. Therefore, South East asia is undergoing a liquidity problem in servicing their debts. 'Nuff said about having massive debt, and essentially, having it called, for all practical purposes. It also means that jobs and wages go down the drain, at least relative to the cost of goods. The people see it as massive inflation. Especially imported goods. I guess they then import less. I guess we then export less. I guess the Tsunami starts coming ashore as the situation becomes a death spiral. Those in debt start closing doors and declaring bancruptcy. Debt goes into default and extinction. Those who hold debt suck wind as they find they can not collect it. If the debt is in government paper, they'll get paid in paper of less purchasing power. All are losers except those that have protected their ASSets appropriately. They'll be in position to pick up stuff for essentially pennies ( or maybe less ) on the dollar, IF they find they didn't have to spend it all in surviving that long.

virgin wool

Silver's apparent tightness of supply and
continueing production deficit on a yearly
basis may make it susceptible to being
cornered.Mike Sheller has suggested silver
in the ground as a buy...I tend to agree
and because of that I have bought shares in a
few different companies and including First
Silver Reserve and also SSC.Also the price
of silver has held important support at 4.85
which coincidentaly was the resistance previous
to the runnup to 5.30.I should add that it
was Mike Sheller who indentified the resistance
at 4.85.Silver going higher IMHO.

All: What's happening with Glamis gold - it is dropping fast! I thought this was a good stock to buy because it is unhedged!

Hey Big Beaver- YOU GOT IT RIGHT! SMART MONEY ISSA BUYIN GOLD SHARES TOO!
I also would bet we know each other. Give me a call.

Tally Ho

http://www.duke.edu/~dhp/fu1htm.html Well, Howard Phillips' AI told him it is going long again on FSAGX tonight but is still short on FDPMX. I wonder if you can build one of those critters with Radio Shack parts?

Steady: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.html

Mr. Kiwi: I looked for some here in the US but they told me all of our sheep were liars.

Cocking the Catapult : According to Frank Veneroso, "the" gold expert, the gold short position is now exceeding an unprecedented 2,000 tonnes. When the s..t hits the fan you better be ready.

Also try http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u Nice format.....

Beaver,

Interested to know why you would challenge London's most highly esteemed goliath of gold market statistics gatherer, Gold Field Mineral Services. I have been following them for several years and have the upmost respect for them. Can you provide any reaons for your bullish opinion concerning an under-reporting by GFMS?

Dow to 8300 by 10/23/97
Gold to 310 by 10/23/97

Hey GSC, should we be buying the dips
or ignoring the dips who recommend
buying all the time when they themselves
aren't buying?

Steady,
My favorite,
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
You can try
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/core/dbc/gfa.html?source=core/dbc
more detail, but slow and not always updated.

Deja Vu All Over Again?!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/rca_msft.html

Okay, so let's say AG shoots his load on Oct 29 and hikes up interest rates unexpectedly to let the cowboys on the bullride cool their heels...what next? Everybody's a little shaky from this Asian thing so markets tank bigtime, does he then slash interest rates to ensure liquidity or pump up the volume and as his last hurrah recommends the US returns to a gold standard to ward off EMU blues?...Quite the conundrum.

Greg: You might want to look at Avino ( ASGMF ) Mines. If you believe like I do that silver is going nowhere but up, it is a very thinly traded stock. Slight moves in silver have a large impact on it. In addition, when gold wakes up you get the added kicker of their involvement in another mine. I too also have some SSRIF and FSR.

Who is responsible for inflation??? Consider the following unbelievable data ::
From USW Consumer Price Index ( 1967=100 ) /Source US Dept of Commerce/Last 11/95 :
Cosumer Price Index ( and its predecessors since 1800 )

During the period between 1779, when the country was founded, and 1913 when the Federal Reserve Act was passed by Congress ( 134 yrs ) , the price level in the US rose a TOTAL OF 16% !!!!!.
Yet in the 82 years since 1913 ( ref year '95 ) , the price level has risen more than 1,000% !!!

Bart - You need to block out a few more locations across the U.S.
Here is my iternerary for the next week: Monday - Santa Fe
Tuesday - Gallup Wednesday and Thursday - Phoenix ( Tempe,
actually ) I will be in the public libraries of all of these cities.
Also, you need to work on blocking posts from the Anonymizer
site.

Tolerant1 ( Kevan ) - Apparently someone is sending E-mail
from a facetious address. Please be extra careful.

RJ - Great to have you back - One whole day away.
The sex bitch posts are still where they always were.
I tend not to believe this is the reason you went away
for a day, because you said this only as an afterthought,
and it doesn't make sense if you were so offended by
them to go back and look for them, but whatever.
I'm sure you had your reasons for your one day
departure. The reason I pointed out the silliness
of your India post is that it will have absolutely
no short-term or very short-term impact on gold
at all. Witness what has happened in the market
since the announcement - nada. Again, since you
don't have any particular agenda, you should be
able to accept this insight without throwing another
fit.

GSC - My, we've been quiet this week. Is it because
you were exposed ( what a stoopid post on Sunday,
George ) as a pretender when it comes to putting
your money where your mouth is?

right on, bankers are wankers and money launders and userers the lot of them. I say we get a load of guns, gather up a posse and relieve them of the gold because they can't be trusted to work for their privileges. Cheats and liars ( lawyers ) protect them but will be held accountable when the day of reckoning arriveth.

Kiwi: It would make more sense for the dollar to take on a gold backed system. Everybody and their brother has US dollars, is used to US dollars and it would make for an interesting way for the US Govt to get out of the horrendous mess they have gotten themselves into.

The EMU has had problems from the get go. I do not think it will ever come together as planned.

Either way, I just want money that is backed 100% with gold so we can reshingle our pyramid. It's cold up here, our wool is tainted.

Cheese:

Let me get this straight; you think I should sell my international oil company, up over 65% this year, yielding near 4% and a PE ratio about @14 to buy more gold/gold stock? Na-baby-Na!

Dear Mr. Mustard: There is nothing fake about my email address, I have several due to horrendous overload on various projects. Anybody on the planet can post me direct at tolerant@hotmail.com - yes my name is Kevan, in case your wondering about the a, instead of an i in my name, my parents told me it was "a" french bottle of wine as a prelude to an enjoyable evening they named Kevan.

Hey Ray - probably met you at one of the many gold shows throughout the years. I'm looking at '98 onward as being our bonanza years. I'm currently accumulating. Looking to buy more PM shares on any big dips. We've been patient and the rewards will be ours!

Well JG, there are several reasons that are verifiable if you were to check it out.

For instance, there are larger official gold flows than reported. Go back to recent years and you will find that there are many unreorted but identifiable flows of official gold throughout the years 1990-1995 imply showing that GFMS understated global gold demand by hundreds of tons. Presently, central banks are supplying far more borrowed gold than Gold Fields estimates.
There was massive unrecorded speculator selling in 1994-96 again pointing to higher gold demand levels and a higher gold market deficit. Go back to 1993.94. Yowu will see that GFMS underestimated speculator purchases in 1993, it also underestimated 1994 speculator sales which were nearly 700 tonnes, not the 168 tonnes Gold Fields reported. And official sector sales met speculator demand in 1993. Check into WGC . You will find that their survey confirms suspicions that GFMS underestimated global gold demand by 400 tons or more. Look at the Bank of England statistics. They disclose an = oversight of the London gold market showing that 1995's borrowed gold flows totalled 1,000 to 1,200 tons annually. GFMS estimated these flows at about 600 tonnes. Greater supplies of borrowed gold suggest that Gold Fields underestimated 1995 demand by 400 to 600 tonnes. Long term trends and intensity of use patterns also argue that demand has been underestimated over the last decade. Although gold demand rises faster than world output ( faster still in the rapidly growing Far East ) and the gold price has fallen more than 40 percent in real terms since 1988, demand hasn't risen 40 percent. GFMS estimates mainland Chinese use as being far too low, assuming they have a lower intensity of use than overseas Chinese and other neighbors, an illogical position.

Iternarary = schedule in Cape Breton

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Earl ( the long-suffering artiste ) - It must be hell
knowing that someday when gold actually
goes up you won't have any motivation to
carp so eloquently. Plus, you're the only
real writer on this site and everyone else
is publishing poetry and books and having
so much fun. Almost makes you want
to wring your hands in despair, doesn't it?

elf, MoreGold, Derrick - Thanks a lot !!!!!!!!

Can some one define for me how to develop a real interest rate chart for the past 30 years and then compare that to golds movements over the same time period.

Mr. Mustard is that bastard hepcat...encourage him not.

A US dollar fully backed by Gold maybe the way out but still has political conotations for many countries, especially N. Korea I expect. Perhaps a planetary unit would be spherically harmonic with more people, the minimum area/volume ratio ensures minimal losses due to fondling.

Tolerant1 -- A gold standard would not even ALLOW a FED to be in existence, as the 'value' or debt creation/extinction, would never be be in question. It would be self regulating. If all money were gold and silver and parlayed in ounce ( s ) , then it could never be manipulated nor counterfeited. Is someone going to 'buy it with paper? I DON"T think so, as no one in their right mind would sell it to the paper pushers. At least in 'currencies'. Could a person buy a 'stock' position in a company with his coinage? Sure. Why not. It doesn't 'extinguish' the coin. That coin mearly changes hands in the hopes of the purchaser of the stock that he'll get two coins back, or some such and at some time. A pure gamble in that sense. Could that coin travel across the border in purchasing some goods? Yes. What would happen if too many coins did so and started causing a lack of them in circulation here? In that case, less and less of them would go across the border as 'demand' for goods started drying up, and people and business would realize that it might be best to keep the money flowing here, if they want a market here! That realization would come MUCH faster than it does at present as our current government will simply print more liquidity, thus masking the effect. Better yet would be a trade system where only GOODS/PRODUCTS changed hands on a more or slightly less equal basis, with their own set of book-keeping between companies, and no 'currency' changing hands. That would keep liquidity in the country where it belongs AND allow a FAIR trade between countries with no particular monetary advantage to either, but allowing technological exchange plus goods with each other. A very nice side benefit of that is that the lesser developed nation with the lower wage would be much more apt to RAISE wages, thus their costs, as they would then have to trade LESS material with their trading partner. Everyone gets to be 'more equal' and faster, monetarily! The need of a FED becomes non-existent under a self-regulating system. And if coinage could not be 'traded' for across-the-border' goods, then the job of regulating the amount of coinage in circulation becomes even less for the dougheads of congress. Perhaps even limited to placing another few coins in circulation for each newborn or immigrant. It might just be that simple! If not, the complications must certainly be far less than the problematical existence of our debt-based, usury ridden, counterfeit bitten system that we are now in bondage to! And futher more, we can THEN get into taxes..............

Tolerant1.Indeed I am looking to add AVINO to
my position.Currently I'm adding to my FSR and
am real convinced on the prospects for silver.
You should all go out and sell anything silver...
This ,I'm sure, is the END.No solicitation intended.

October 22, 1997

U.S. "fast-track" trade bill in trouble in House

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton sought to build some momentum in Congress for controversial trade negotiation legislation Wednesday as a key lawmaker said it was in serious trouble in the House .
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Archer told Clinton in a letter that so-called fast track trade negotiation legislation could be defeated in the House if Clinton failed to muster more support from his own Democrats.

The Texas Republican said he would like to proceed with a vote on the controversial legislation in the full House this fall, and urged the president to get more Democrats on board.

"We are in a precarious position," Archer said. "If we proceed with a floor vote without sufficient support, the cause of free trade could be seriously harmed by an embarrassing defeat on the floor of the House."

He urged Clinton to provide a list of at least 70 Democrats who would support their president on the legislation that would give him authority to negotiate trade deals without fear they would later be changed by Congress.

"Without such support from Democrats, fast track will remain in deep trouble," he added.

"Fast track legislation furthers the role of the World Trade Organization, an international tribunal of unelected, unaccountable
trade experts with the authority to overrrule U.S. national, state and local law," Kucinich said. "The fast track vote is a vote on the preservation of our national sovereignty."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TRADE-FASTTRACK.html

B Beaver - Need to do some checking. Gold Fields also reports on silver. I supoose you feel the same about their silver stats?

Kiwi: N. Korea, point well taken.

The guy who clearly foresaw the Dow back above 8000
and the eight day drop in gold. He's clearly the guy to put
your money behind. Oh, that's right, it will happen someday.

Attention everyone: Someone has set up an E-mail account
bartkitner@hotmail.com with the password "kitco". This is
not Bart's true e-mail account and any E-mail from this account
should be ignored. If anyone responded to this
e-mail address with any personal information, you might
strongly consider closing your account.

I personally like the idea of not having to register and
am glad I argued for it so that it wouldn't be instituted.

Get lost punk!

Eldorado: Point well taken, understood, and I totally agree. I liked the way you explained it as I know what I think about the subject but it never comes out the way you clearly stated it. On top of that you have some insights which as of yet I do not. Thanks for helping me think better.

JG - You got it! Worl-wide monetary easing has set the bullish environment for silver bugs. Falling inventories, 90-97 deficit in conjunction with readily SELLING bullion inventories, AND the kicker - Silver Stock to consumption ratio falling to a new record low. All we need now is for one or MORE large specs to move in for the kill. The time is fast approaching, JG. ( Sooner than later ) . Don't try to pick a bottom, and unless you're a day trader, start to average in now. My advice that is.

Kuston, re your latest. Globalstar is a Space Systems Loral program, not Boeing you Moron, new launches are being booked daily, not 5 to 7 years from now, I understand my industry well, you obviously know ZERO about it, but just want to shoot your ignorant pie hole off in order to become ingratiated with the LGB haters. Find something else you know nothing about to discuss OK? You'll do better.

Meanwhile, I shan't waste further bandwidth on someone who saydsso much about a subject of which he knows so little. Obviously you got a hold of a "Space & Science" weekly or something once upon a time and have fancied yourself an "expert" ever since.

Unlike the censorship Moron's however, I won't call for you to cease and desist. Continue to embarass yourself with further ignorant posts, I won't respond and anyone interested in the subject can do their own research and see for themselves what a Dipstrudle you be.

ctober 22, 1997
Barrick reports big third-quarter loss due to mine phaseouts

TORONTO ( CP ) - Closing five high-cost mines took a big bite out of
Barrick Gold Corp.'s bottom line Wednesday, dragging Canada's largest
gold producer to a huge loss.
"For years, Barrick was at the forefront of leading growth in ounces and
production and wasn't focusing on what it meant for the bottom line," Ing
said. "You've got to look at the commodity and that's what has happened now. Gold is in a bear market and at such low levels where it's forcing even one of the industry leaders to bite the bullet."

Mike Curran, a senior gold analyst with Midland Walwyn Capital in
Toronto, said the Pierina property may prove to be one of the world's
lowest cost mines, which could significantly help Barrick's future profits. Barrick bought Pierina last year for about $1 billion Cdn from Arequipa Resources, a Vancouver junior exploration company.
"I've seen $50 US an ounce production costs and I can't think of anybody
near that," said Curran. "With mines like that, Barrick can afford to just wipe off some of its higher cost operations."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Barrick-Loss.html

It's Beaver huntin season. Imo nail me a BIG'n!!!!

Flag is just starting to take off so hop on the train before it leaves you behind!

KIWI - Thems fighten words. I thought just afew months/years ago everyone thought we were the best thing since sliced bread. Wa' ha'pen?

LGB - You opportunist you. Making money off'a other peoples' ignornace an' greed like that!

ALL - Fast/Slow. Up/Down. Left/Right? Whatever way it goes it will amaze us all, no? Appreciate the thoughtful posts. DAANG! just about got clobbered by one o' them low orbit jobs. Watch yer heads, mates, theirs incoming!

Just finished looking at a 5yr chart of the XAU. Wow, that inverse head-and-shoulders is so clear! Even in my tech analysis textbooks I have not seen such a beautiful inverse pattern. Looks like the XAU is heading up, if you are a technician. I'm holding on to my 115 puts that I sold for a while yet!

- Organ

p.s. I'm looking for work these days. I do web-database work in Java and SQL ( in addition to brain surgery on rats, of course! ) . Any of you goldbugs know anyone who is hiring? Thanks!

Farmer John - How's your daughter, Moose Hips with Horse jaw as I affectionately call her. She's bullish on gold or didn't cha know?
Hey, an don't fergit to water them there turnips.

Clinton will be used as the escape goat for the coming financial collapse for all the excesses built up for the last 70 years. The age of acquisitioners is coming to an end. Corruption in the White House will be the excuse to bring down the establishment because there are no more props left to keep this game going. Clinton has had it good to long and the bottom is ready to cave in. Japan can not stop what is about to happen in Asia and the chickens will come home to roost. The U.S. is going to be caught in the wipe out. Boeing is booming but they are losing money. Computers have also seen their day of sunshine because who needs faster computers when the economy starts contracting. Buyers will dry up overnight. Moral decay is the other problem thats going to crack this already fragile system. America is going to be tested like never before and gold will be recalled by most governments. Only predated 1933 collector coins will be legal to own. Your bullion coins will be turned in to the government for a small profit. Bullion coins are no hedge.

A colleague of mine today stated that HK mkt getting hit over greater Chinese econ control in HK to reduce rent costs to workers and dittos for medicals for poorer workers. No doubt the market would not like this. If true Go Chinese Govt!

Big Beaver... I was sittin down, now I'm standin up. Getin ready to make me some Beaver STew. Thems thar fightin words!!!

OK, so this guy finds a brass bottle on the beach, rubs it, A Genie pops out, grants just ONE wish. The guy says, "I want ALL the Gold, Silver, and PLatinum in the World, and a giant protected depository to put it in".

The Genie scratches his head, and says "Master, all the Gold, SIlver, & Platinum in the WORLD? There's milliions & millions of ounces. Those CB's are so tough to break into. Ft, Knox, security everywhere. And a giant facility to store it all? There's building permits, security problems..isn't there ANY thing else I could do instead? ANY other wish?

The guy thinks a moment and says "Well..how about if you can give me the ability to understand all women?" To which the Genie quickly replied, "How soon did you want delivery on those metals then??"

Well Farmer, if you're standin, hee hee, then you better get a stool and a tall one at that,..hee, hee, hee.

Oh yeah I almost forgot, "Yawn"...........

Tolerant1 -- I certainly do not mind posting my thoughts and ideas here. Some of my ideas make sense to me but I certainly would not mind someone/anyone punching holes in them. I'd like to see some other views on them; I.E. Discussion. The bottom line being that there MUST be a better way for ALL of us! Just trying to be helpful to the blood-life of the economies of the people here and everywhere, and letting those same regulate their own lives!

Pigs, alls I know how to raise is Pigs. I be wallering aroun in Dere PiggiePoop all day long. My furs so matted and streaked with sh** I need me some hosin down despearet like.

Goldfinger: All the more reason to buy silver, bullion, coins stocks or electronic receipts.

HK down 5.8%, this after -7% yesterday. Japan can't be far behind if this continues. Don't know if this could spread to the west, but its possible.
A couple of months ago all the hot shot brokers were promoting the Asia mutual funds, just like they are telling us to buy the dips on the Dow today.
Fools and their money .............

Don't worry Beaver, if HepCat ever saw a real Beaver, of a different kind especially, he would have no clue what to do.

TOLERANT, Bullion is bad bad news. Give me a good reason to buy it?

TOLERANT, Bullion is bad bad news. Give me a good reason to buy it?

TOLERANT, Bullion is bad bad news. Give me a good reason to buy it?

cause its up ten pennies tonight

Bullion is bad? Why? If you buy it in coin form, it's highly liquid, you can have posession instead of trusting in someone's promise, it's a tangible asset, it's virtually untraceable once you have posession. That's 4 reasons, ( but since you posted the question 3 times! ) Many more reasons but this is a start.

Gold is a hedge against catastrophic events so there for if the going got bad enough your gold would have to be turned in. It's called "RECALL" . For the small premium I'd much rather have old gold coins. They can't confiscate whats considered a collectible. A much more intellegent choice.

Hang Seng down 880pts 7.6%
Malaysia down 3.0%
Singapore down 5.3%
China down 3.1%
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.html

Our OZ market acting very strange today the futures ran up to a 38pt premium ( my take is that they were trying to lead the market higher after yesterdays bull market run ) . Well the physical would'nt have a bar of it and the future has just pulled back 30 pts. I have never seen a movement like this in 2 years of watching our SPI trading. It's like the market got spooked and the buyers are giving up - feeling nervous.
Globex SPX down 200

LBG My man, what's your take on satellite exposure to Y2K problems.
How many of the satellites up there have old embeded chips that have potential to go AWOL.

sia/Pacific
Australia
All Ordinaries
^AORD
10:29PM
2669.9
-13.0
-0.48%
China
Shanghai Composite
^SSEC
10:30PM
1174.447
-3.073
-0.26%
Hong Kong
Hang Seng
^HSI
10:29PM
10845.53
-792.24
-6.81%
India
BSE 30
^BSESN
7:45AM
4082.70
-34.29
-0.83%
Indonesia
Jakarta Composite
^JKSE
10:30PM
505.233
0.000
0.00%
Japan
Nikkei 225
^N225
10:02PM
17608.49
-79.12
-0.45%
Malaysia
KLSE Composite
^KLSE
10:29PM
710.30
-20.87
-2.85%
New Zealand
NZSE 40
^NZ40C
10:29PM
2609.36
-26.12
-0.99%
Pakistan
Karachi 100
^KSE
8:07AM
2067.98
0.00
0.00%
Singapore
Straits Times
^SS1
10:26PM
1639.26
-92.42
-5.34%
South Korea
Seoul Composite
^KS11
10:30PM
610.07
+8.75
+1.46%
Sri Lanka
All Share
^CSE
4:38AM
768.60
-1.10
-0.14%
Taiwan
Taiwan Weighted
^TWII
10:30PM
7866.45
+173.98
+2.26%
Thailand
SET
^SETI
6:01AM
511.56
+3.62
+0.71%

Well, hmmm. I do not think that the US Govt. wants to open the Pandora's box of confiscation. The Republicans are beating Clinton and the Democrats heads in with the IRS and taxes, to add outright confiscation of money and the Democrats won't put anybody in the Whitehouse for the next 25 years.

Bullion is the money of last resort. It is portable. It is the recognized money on planet earth. You could go out and spend $100,000 on rare coins and not get your value out of them due to population and grading of the coin when trading them in a pinch.

1oz, 1/2oz, 1/4oz bullion gives you a far more level playing field to barter with. I mean the intention is to retain wealth right.

Goldfinger,

I own St. Gaudens coins because I think they're a good investment choice. The coin hustlers are selling these coins as non-confiscatable which is totally unscrupulous as far as I'm concerned. Since when can't the government take whatever they want whenever they want. Give me a break!!!

Nick: Great point on the 2000 problem and all the volkswagons orbiting the planet. I had not even thought of that one. WHAT! NO CABLE!

Nick ( @Aussie ) : That's hilarious -- just how many embedded orbiting computer chips will be embedding themselves in the ground around y2k? The ultimate computer crash ( millenium style ) from 50 miles up! Wait till Aurator sees your post!

JTF: Stranger things have happened.

GFinger - In addition to LGB's post of reasons to own the metal. Its very, very compact in relation to its value. No one asks questions when it is transacted for currency or goods. You are not dependent on a 'system' to hold it or use it. Its form can be altered without changing its value ( cast ) . Coins typically have a face value which can act as a floor ( see new US$315 coin being minted ) to protect its value should currency become much more valuable ( when will that be, eh? ) .

The majority of the people don't own gold so why would it cost the Democrats the White House. If anything it would boost their popularity because only the minority are getting rich on gold. Bullion is not the choice investment for gold. A liberty $20 gold piece in mint state 61 sells for about $450. If we had a gold rally of any significance this coin would out perform your bullion 3 to 1. Good Luck !!

You were better off when you were glued to the boob-tube!

LGB: The market's internals, although still strong, are definitely deteriorating. This is all part of the topping process and probably will continue for awhile before the market breaks big time. Best strategy now is sell rallies, while in gold shares the motto is "buy the dips"

Richard Burke: A dramatic drop in real interest rates -- whatever the cause -- would almost certainly send gold sharply higher from its present very depressed state. But the impact of a modest drop is more problematic. The ultimate arbiter of the impact on gold probably would be the market's perception as to whether or not real rates are low enough to trigger higher inflation down the road.

If thats the case then your antiques will be swept away too. It can and won't happen. If it ever got that bad then what you really need is a gun and bullets.

NASA is using the Apple Mac, which does not have the Y2K problem. A purchaseing agent tried to switch to Wintel and such a storm was unleashed by the NASA employees that an investigation has been launched - not sure of the status. Can you imagine being in a space ship controled by Windows 95- the ultimate nightmare.

Goldfinger: I think alot more people own gold then you estimate. I think the Republicans would make a huge deal of it ( confiscation ) coupled with the IRS mess. It would add fuel to the fire.

Goldfinger -- Perhaps you know the day and the hour, but right now, your 'finger' ain't so golden. You don't NEED to buy it. You don't NEED to have it. Afterall, it's not like it's earning any inflated dollars as the days go by. It's not like you can eat it, though it certainly will last much longer than a few tons of grain or meat in the barn, and might be traded for some as needed. OH! PAPER! No problem! You can stack that up in the barn too! Good for keeping warm and wiping your eyes as you cry into your last beer! WHAT! No one will trade your paper! They don't need another bonfire? They only want 'tangibles'? Jeesh! What a concept!
I certainly hope you find a 'time' to be buying the physical. You better be keeping a close eye on it 'cause it just might dry right up, in front of your eyes and very quickly! Totally unavailable almost overnight! I won't let you cry in MY beer! I don't want to hear your knashing teeth.
I don't want to be mean, but I do think that it is very important for people to have a 'bit' of insurance of various kinds on hand. I will say that I sleep much easier these days in having such! The hell with earning another paper dollar on those buried assets! They'll more than make up for it! And I am not just talking 'G'old. There is much more involved than that simplicity. You've got a few more ''G's' to acquire if you haven't already. Get that 'foxhole' dug. You'll feel better!

GEEEZ! Has EBN got this right?
http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/Stocks/
Hang Seng down over 1100 points?

I have commented earlier on the excellent action of the gold stocks. If bullion were to rally 10 bucks or so, XAU probably would break 110 resistence decisively. If bullion goes up 10 bucks XAU might move into the 115-120 area. But if bullion drops 10 bucks, I doubt if XAU would go much below 95.

ALL,
UNBELIEVEABLE!HANG SENG DOWN TO 1020!.......
SAD TRADING!

I meant to say that XAU probably would break 110 if bullion rallied 5 bucks.

Panda - YAHOO International says -792

If gold was recalled and you did not obey the law the stakes would be very high. You would think more than twice to try and hide from the authorities. With the hitech equipment today you would be in the slammer before you could turn your head. You must be a high risk taker and a fool to try and stumble the government. Sorry but your dead wrong Allen.

GFinger - You are obviously quite pleased with your choices as are many here who don't agree with you. LGB likes the Gaudon. Look at the context of the last US gold confiscation. The gov was trying to move the entire population away from using gold as a currency. That's not the case today. In fact a gold confiscation might come but only if the currency was issued in trillion dollar notes. There is no reason to confiscate now except as outright theft. If that were done it would be a far worse world than you or I would care to contemplate. As for now I'd be more concerned about money getting trapped in accounts in banks via executive order than confiscation of tangibles. If you are happy with your historic coins, then just tell us that.

Allen is right, it really does boil down to what the individual is comfortable with.

Currency decoupling is gonna be a.... Ask Hong Kong.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/22/z0009_88.html

tolerant1 -- With those kind of swings, what's a few hundred points?

Panda: Stop making sense.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/22/z0009_88.html

http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/Stocks/ has the Hang Seng down over 1300.

Panda: Maybe if the Hang Seng drops another couple THOUSAND points it MIGHT affect the Dow......What will it take???

Hi JIN!! It looks like the Hang Seng is in a free-fall but when will it spread to the West??

GF - Are you a bit paranoid? The "government" can't even run a good covert operation let alone track the multiplied tens of thousands which own gold. What kind of technology do you think they have, brain scanners? Really. The IRS will not even survive Y2000 let alone track you and your coins, what kind they are and all that. It sounds like you've got yourself convinced that 'they' are out there and are waiting to take it all away from you. If that's true than it doesn't matter what you've got your wealth in, they WILL take it. PERIOD. Gold, Silver, Paper, Bank Accounts. No Sweat. Confiscated.

Do you have guns? Are you living with the curtains drawn? Is your phone tapped?

Most of us are little fish. You probably are also. Don't sweat it. They don't care about you. Unless you are into drugs, gun running, crime or the like. Otherwise they just couldn't care less.

I suggest you go back to where ever rock you crawled out from and bury your B.S. on some worm. Thats about all your good for because you have an attitude that needs to be shoved right down your throat. I happen to be againest gold bullion. If you have a problem with that you need to tone it down. BLOW ME.

I suggest you go back to where ever rock you crawled out from and bury your B.S. on some worm. Thats about all your good for because you have an attitude that needs to be shoved right down your throat. I happen to be ag

tolerant1 -- I forgot! This is a gold page! :- ) )

All I can say is, someone is getting one hell of a reality check ( H.K. ) . The question becomes, when are the banks going to take the hit? The big thing about H.K. is the real estate market. This is built on leverage/credit. If the financial markets go 'illiquid', lookout for T-Bill/Notes/Bond sales! Don't forget those nasty loan calls, they're sort of like margin calls. :- ) ) I've been told to never meet a margin call. I wonder, does this apply to loans too? :- ) )

Good Night all...

High Rise: Great post about a spaceship using Windows 95! Imagine trying to solve a software glitch in that long distance! Something like good old Microsoft DOS would be much safer and faster. In fact, my old 64k RadioShack Model IV had an even better and simpler operating system -- a modified CPM ( ? ) version, I believe. I wonder what the MIR computer is -- perhaps my model IV was more powerful! My old HP 200 Calculator however probably has less memory - can't believe I paid $250 for that when I retired my Keuffel and Esser!

LGB - I see you are back to your old switch the words game again.

Your 18:56 post says "my company who is putting several Globalstar
satellites in orbit less than 2 months from now," so checking the latest
launch schedule http://www.pafb.af.mil/launches/mainlnch.htm I see
its a little late. October 1 a Delta II was to launch with a GlobalStar
payload. Did I miss something? Delta IIs are McDonald Douglas rockets
which is owned by Boeing. Loral built the satelites, Boeing is putting
them into space.

I'm not an expert. I never claimed to be - just following some good advice
I read here at Kitco about exposing frauds and pull peddlers. Of course
that advice was in refernce to stock advisers - but I thought it was good
advice anyway.

Personal attacks and "I won't respond" anymore? Sounds like you know your
industry really well. Of course everyone already knew about your
legendary discussion skills. I've made my point and we'll see when that
October 1st launch takes place.

Ted/Jin/All - Here is our October suprise: Check your parachutes, boys and girls, we are just about ready to bail out. Hong Kong will decouple from US$ in order to salvage its markets. Then China will fall, Korea afterwards and then Japan. He are looking up hill at a muchos grande express coming out way.

As EB would say, Awaaaaay, to find a foxhole to hide in ( with guns and ammo, MRE's and gold ) .

Howdy Ted! -- Someday Wall Street will have a reality check too! On the Nightly Business Report they had one of their 'two minute sages' at the end talk about short selling and why you may want to be a short seller... ( A small position of course. )

Really gone now...........................

Hepcat -- You have been proclaiming gold to be at 310 and the DOW at 8300 on the 23rd. That is tomorrow! That's one hell of a transition of support/resistance areas in a very limited amount of time, isn't it? And I thought I was being drastic in my 'measurements'! You sure you don't want to do any retractions/restatements at this time? I will say this in your defence, for what it is worth. I will not be going long in gold tomorrow unless I see either LOW, LOW numbers or a break above a certain other number which I will not broadcast at this time. I'll watch the activity! But I still don't see that Dec gold will not/can not go below 315 area! Not this month. I'll certainly have to come over to meet you should it do so and buy you a 'beer' or two!

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/wei.html

Allen ( USA ) : I'm not sure you are right about what is coming -- but I do agree with you that China is the key. All: Has anyone spotted anything more about the 350,000 or so SOE's that are in debt? It sure is hard to determine how much of the bad debt in mainland China is from foreign sources. It is one thing if we are talking about inefficeint leftover firms from the older Communist Chinese days, and quite another if we are talking about modern, over-built factories funded with foreign money, loaned out by essentially unregulated mainland Chinese banks.

Panda: Good God, it is getting very ugly over there. When you said whats a 100 points or so, this is way past getting out of hand. I wonder how all the talking heads in the US are going to explain this one away.

The shock waves from what is going on in Asia are going to have tremendously destabilizing affects on the US.

Countdown to AG - 4 days.

Goldfinger re 22:38 post: Confiscation? That bodes poorly for the tyrant involved. This Halloween try conjuring up the ghosts of Czar Nicholas, Hitler, Cromwell, Jeff Davis and Louis XVI and ask them what happens when you try to run a country on confiscated gold.

This Hang Seng thing is starting to look SERIOUS and I'm amazed @ how little affect the Asian equity turmoil has had on the Dow so far....

Where is my f**king surfboard. 5th wave of this set has just cast a
shadow over half the world. Amnesty, take me out on your sharkcat
I,m gonna ride this one over land. Look out people!

Ted,Allen,Jin: I would guess that the US markets won't respond very much to this. I don't think the average American is really aware of the significance of what is happening! That will come later.

On CNBC one guest, an asian investor describe the market activity in Hong Kong one of PANIC. He went on to say that normally he would use times like this to buy - not this time. He sees the end of the HK$. The currency will be merged with China's currency. I personally felt that HK story was almost over when The House of Justine moved out a couple of years ago.

On CNBC one guest, an asian investor describe the market activity in Hong Kong one of PANIC. He went on to say that normally he would use times like this to buy - not this time. He sees the end of the HK$. The currency will be merged with China's currency. I personally felt that HK story was almost over when The House of Justine moved out a couple of years ago.

TED,ALLEN,
WHOLE REGION IS IN HOT POT NOW!
Thai bhats and Ringgits looked liked un stopable blleding!So as hong kong hung seng!Some weeks ago,some comments predicted that the effect will vibrated the west,looked REAL!?...LET SEE..!Personally feel that the
next should be around china,australia and japan. ( any comments welcome! )

As the gold market here.my retail/wholesale very bad.The factories closed down.loss jobs,...anythings u say!As b4,bought some physicals,now looking for buyer to LIQUIDATION,NO BUYER AT ALL! even, the refinery metals very very cheap!......tell u more later about the market...!

rgds,jin ( cssam@pl.jaring.my )

Goldfinger -- Ah! Foodfight! I hadn't thought that I would be cause of one of those with a simple response. However, I can participate if you like. I guess I had my assessment correct. Your finger isn't gold. More like 'brown'. I wouldn't lick it though, if I were you, which thankfully, I'm not. It seems to have been in some dark, dank, stinky place for quite some time. Probably much like the mind that put it there in the first place. Poor finger! Ah well, some people just like to F___ themselves. No problem! Enjoy! Thanks for the entertainment!

HighRise: If Chinese investors are imagining the end of the $HK that would indeed cause a panic. Did you notice that only the China CLSA index-China World is down comparably to the Hang Seng, not the seven other China indices that Bloomberg covers. I don't have a clue what that means.