October 23, 1997
Westcoast CEO to lead Canada pension committee

OTTAWA, Oct 23 ( Reuters ) - The chief executive officer of Vancouver-based Westcoast Energy Inc will lead the committee that will select the board in charge of investing the revamped Canada Pension Plan, the Canadian government said on Thursday.
Legislation to change the CPP is expected to be passed by the end of the year. The CPP will then begin to invest its money in stocks and bonds and will be managed by an investment board that will be named by the committee named on Thursday.

The Canadian government named Michael Phelps of Westcoast as the chair of the committee. The nine participating provinces also named one appointee each to the committee.
The committee is expected to recommend investment board candidates before the end of the year.
The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board will be in charge of a huge amount of Canadians' savings. Actuaries have estimated that the fund would be fairly small at first -- about C$40 billion in 1997 -- but that would grow to reach C$135 biillion by 2007.

My attorney has advised me to adhere to the Sergeant Shultz defense " I know notzing! notzing! ) I am not accumulating physical silver in that little bank in Switzerland, and I have not talked to any of my horse buddies in Saudi Arabia about silver!!

Gold still down .50 cents

Is this site working at the moment?

600# CHEESECAKE for Hillary 50th birthday. I posted several days ago that we should be in CheeseCake. SarahLee posted record earnings today today.

The markets seem to have had their morning sell off and then a strong recovery.
The recovery rally now seems to be rolling over and heading back down.
Now the markets will tell us this afternoon how much fear is in peoples hearts as to whether or not they want to hold over the weekend or next week.
This indicator should be very important tonight in US.

Noticed that the ask bid for GCZ7 has 108 bidders, a very high number.
It looks like they are tring to bottom pick gold???

According to George Milling-Stanley, WGC, recent confernec call with Nesbitt Burns the COMEX net short position at Sept 23rd was 196 metric tonnes. He suggested that some analysts consider the COMEX short position to be about 10% of the world short position as most of the trade is OTC.
Given this assumption the world short position is about 1,960 metric tonnes or about 1/4th the gold inventory of the US govt and about the same figure that DA mentions in his last post - 60MM ozs.

Cheers.

Good night Nick ( Aussie ) and all others.....Tis late in Cape Breton ( 1:40 AM )

According to George Milling-Stanley, WGC, recent confernec call with Nesbitt Burns the COMEX net short position at Sept 23rd was 196 metric tonnes. He suggested that some analysts consider the COMEX short position to be about 10% of the world short position as most of the trade is OTC.
Given this assumption the world short position is about 1,960 metric tonnes or about 1/4th the gold inventory of the US govt and about the same figure that DA mentions in his last post - 60MM ozs.

P.S. I hope this isn't a double post as I could not see it registered on the site.

Cheers.

What the market indexs look like now?

Ted good night sleep well...

The Lotus Eaters

Only to sleep
And sleeping dream the day away
Nevermore
The sounding sea, the straining oar

Only to dream
To sleep and drift in idle play
Nor ever feel again
The restless beat, the pulse of life
Nor feel its slow decay

Only to sleep
And only dream thru sunbright day
Not evermore
The slow disease of toil
That wears mans strength away

Only to dream
Only to sleep again; leave us
Nevermore to roam
Here be sweet forgetfulness
We are indeed far far away from home

But -- Odysseus -- true man indeed
Awakened them, Not so, cried he
Drove them cursing and lamenting
Back to their ship and destiny
Denied of rest; long years to roam
Of all only Odysseus
Will reach the haven loved, of home.

TED,DONALD,ALLEN ,WW....
MORE DOWN?Let's see: http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/5/nfrnt01.html
and
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/5/nfrnt05.html
and
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/5/nseas02.html
and
?
and?
?
WHAT NEXT?

TED,DONALD,ALLEN ,WW....
MORE DOWN?Let's see: http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/5/nfrnt01.html
and
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/5/nfrnt05.html
and
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/5/nseas02.html
and
?
and?
?
WHAT NEXT?

ERR...,
http://www.abn.com.sg/headlines/index.cfm#579
THAI MINISTER COMING UP...SO DOES THE NEW GOVTMENT......VERY SOON!

Follow up to posting earlier in the day. At $ 320 gold several production mines have closed. This creates a supply shortfall. Reported supply declines in addition to the underreported supply shortfall from mines posted today mean that Central Banks must furnish greater and greater percentages of the supply. A drop which gold bear traders are anticipating and hoping for to say $ 250 gold would be screamingly bullish for gold as many more mines would close. Gold pricing is in the range where Central Banks have refused to increase the volume of their sales. The fact is that gold is within about $ 5 of the bottom of the trading range that it has been in for several years. Just look at the chart. Short interest of 8,000 tons cited here is enormous. I think that based on technical history the bears are going to be surprised when gold refuses to break to the downside. Parameters are in place to start a new bull market. The key is if Japan can manage the crisis of their huge exposure to bad loans to Thailand ( half of them ) and the other asian tigers. It is the japanses style to hide their difficulties until they break into the open in spectacular ways. I expect a major japanese bank to fail or acknowledge insolvency with the government bailing them out.

The gold/silver bears have been right all the way down. My congratulations to them. However, by definition they will be wrong at the bottom. This is the bottom! Their bearish greed with 8,000 tons gold short is going to propel this gold market into a Bull that we will talk about for ten-fifteen years from now.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The scoop on Asia this evening -- reflex rally in HK and Japan, but Seoul and NZ takes a beating ( down more than 5% each )

ORGAN, tis true, but 'member, NZ has a giant 0.2% of world capital markets, and, as posted a day or two ago, mostly owned overseas, NZ still has not recovered from the 87 crash. Dont let the tale wag the dog on this one.

In a way, we're leading the world again, like being the first country on earth to give women the vote , oh yes, and to declare war on Hitler. One line of parochial argument goes we shall be the first to see the millenium.

The media beat up concerns me.. when things really go wrong, the fourth estate will mostly ignore the news. At the moment theyre all so easily taking Cassandras side, something smells...

Auric you haven't changed your name entirely?

JIN
thanks for local news, i chased one of your links to Golden Investment Opportunities is worth a read if you want to laugh

http://www.asia1.com.sg/schroder/

I have friends in Laos who are forbidden access to the web ( well really ) . They tell me that despite news blackouts, people are once more looking at their rice stores and returning to the villages. Does that agree with what you might have heard from the villages in E Malaysia? How are things in Jahore Baru border??

Can anyone post news from Indonesia please?

I must get some winks. I've got a head banger right now. Must be all the excitement today at Kitco...and work.

Aurator - you give 'em hell in my absence...please

Nick ( Aussie ) - there is NO logic it seems. I am just a TA guy with funnymental sprinklings and a touch of brass. This gold IS manipulated in some way and it is not time yet. I am using logic, can't ya' see??

ALL - How/Why will this be the biggest bull run for gold? Why will it be different from all the other gold bull runs. Gold is a commodity. Albeit, a strange politico commodity. And it will act like a commodity with all the fluctuations of a commodity. It will fluctuate between 400 and 300 per oz. ( and maybe lower than 300 this year ) with a historical 50% level ( back 30 yrs ) of 370.00/oz. It will not get close to that before the year is out...no way...no how...

g'night!

away...to saw logs and count sheep...


don't get excited you southerners...i said COUNT sheep...not... ;- )

gold down 90...oh my!

away


as I said earlier this week...Friday will be baaaaaaaad for gold...

for E

sixty-five, sixty-six, sixty-seven, hello darling, sixty-eight, sixty-nine..

Didn't see it mentioned here. Maybe I'm blind or all the flack has effected my concentration, but Brazil SA's biggest economy was down 8.15% yesterday ( 10/23 ) .

Korean Won Tumbles as Investors Flee Won Assets

The South Korean won fell to a record low against the dollar as foreign investors rushed to cash in
their Korean stock holdings for foreign currency. The declines, which overwhelmed central bank
buying, will inflate overseas debt at banks and some of Korea's biggest companies, such as Korea
Electric Power Corp. and Yukong Ltd., that owe billions of dollars. The alternative, central bank
support and high domestic interest rates to stabilize the currency by attracting capital, could deplete
Korea's foreign currency reserves and snuff out an economic recovery.

( Is Japan selling bonds to raise the PKO money? )
Japanese stocks traded mixed following Hong Kong's rebound. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock
average rose 174.42 points, or 1.02 percent, to 17,325.97. It earlier fell to 16,863.54, its lowest
since Aug. 15, 1995. ``To protect the 17,000 line, PKO money ( government price keeping
operations ) poured in,'' said Shigemi Nonaka, managing director at Sakura Asset Management Co.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose 4.4 percent in morning trading after falling yesterday 10.4
percent to 10,894.56.

The dollar rose against the yen amid speculation rising Hong Kong interest rates and falling stocks
will take a toll on the Japanese economy and contribute to further yen weakness, traders said.
Yesterday's 10 percent decline in Hong Kong stocks drove equities lower around the world. The
dollar was quoted at 122.12 yen, compared with 121.90 yen in late New York trading yesterday.
It was quoted at 1.7673 marks, compared with 1.7667 marks in New York.

Nick@Aussie- Much obliged "mate", even though I don't have MS Office '97, it worked and printed on to my word pad. However what I didn't know, is that the price runs 24 hrs, continuously, but only on the D setting. That's a great place to follow gold on a constant basis.

If you email me I'll respond by adding your name to my list of addresses, and you'll get jokes, almost daily. Not junk.

Reify@Sitcom.co.il

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/23/z0000_z00_6.html

Must reading for all "Dippies" -- Part I

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/mf_center.htm?source=core/funds

Farrell on Funds

Paul B. Farrell, JD, PhD

Top-10 Global Funds
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fund Investors, "Buy On Dips?"
Hong Kong's Collapse A "Dip?"
Are Your Asia Funds "Dipping?"
Buy'n'hold is the basic strategy of most fund investors. And the "buy on dips" rule is an inherent corollary of the basic buy'n'hold strategy. Does the collapse of the Hong Kong market qualify as a "dip?"
Should you buy?
Most investors never question fundamental rules like this. Why? As we noted a few days ago markets inevitably head upwards. So, we are told by Wall Street gurus, it makes sense to "buy on dips," because "on dips," the prices are always at "bargain basement," right? Wrong.
Buy'n'Hold And Buy On Dips?
( Except Maybe On A Big Dipper! )
Like virtually all general rules, this one can really screw up your overall investment strategy, as the Hong Kong collapse is proving. The reason's very simple: Sometimes the "bargain basement" is not the lowest level. The market can always "dip" lower than a "normal
correction" of 10%, like it did last Spring. And, surprise, surprise, it can even go lower than 23%, as it did during the '87 Crash. Witness Hong Kong today, Tokyo earlier.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/23/z0000_z00_29.html

Farrell on Funds - - Part II

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/mf_center.htm?source=core/funds

How SuperBull Euphoria Deceives Investors When A Real Big Dip Hits.
What happens? You get suckered in! All your SuperBull optimism may pull you into buying on dip after dip after dip....as the crash cascades into a series of "laddered steps" ( "dips?" ) that never fully rebound, but instead continue heading slowly down to 30%, 40% and maybe
even 50% off the top.
Hey, SuperBulls, you say it can't happen? You're looking at a 20-year Global Economic Boom? What about the author of The Great American Deception, Ravi Batra's prediction that a "Stunning Jolt" will cause the stock market to crash in the near future? Are these currency
and monetary problems in Asia the early shock waves of the unidentified, incoming bogie on Batra's radar? The "stunning jolt?" Buy on this dip? Let's test this rule on the relatively new
"push" to diversify by buying international funds. There are some key lessons here for mutual fund investors.
World Market Capitalization Now Forcing Investors Into Global Funds.
In the past few years as the SuperBull market exploded, from the 2000s in 1990 to over 8000 in 1997, Wall Street brokers, financial planners and the mutual funds families have all been pushing more and more non-domestic funds: global, world, foreign and international funds.
And for good reason. In the last two decades, world market capitalization has grown
from about $1 trillion to over $15 trillion. Meanwhile, the North American share of the market has dropped from about 61% to less than 38%. Net result: If you want a truly diversified portfolio today, a prudent investor better start adding some non-U.S. funds. Moreover, in recent years this trend has also been reflected in model portfolios everywhere, both the print and software versions. You see them in financial magazines, advisory newsletters, financial
planners recommendations, and the brochures put out by the funds families selling these new funds. In short, more and more you see asset allocations that "suggest" investors put about 15% to 20% of their stock allocation into foreign stock fund markets.

Farrell on Funds - - Part III

Hong Kong, The "SuperTiger" World Index Of The Last Decade.
Here's a great example. The SuperTiger of Asia, the Hang Seng index of Hong Kong. In a Barron's article, "All Hail the Hang Seng," we hear all the good stuff: "Since the 1987 crash, the Hong Kong market has outstripped the rest of the global field like a 200 m.p.h. Indy racecar
pulling away from a pack of '62 AMC Ramblers or VW Beetles. "Measured in dollars, the key benchmark for U.S. investors, Hong Kong beat the No. 2 Netherlands by 65%. And clobbered Wall Street by an astounding 127%." But suddenly, that's old news.
The Tao of The Hang Seng: Is The SuperTiger Toothless?
This week the Hong Kong SuperTiger's fortune cookie came up with bad news. The Great Hang Seng index dropped 25% in four days after the Barron's article. Looks like Communist China has a SuperTiger by the tail and they can't control the unruly beast ( The Enemy Capitalism ) that it is morphing into. Welcome to the free world market! Beijing thought it got absolute control of Hong Kong once it kicked out the British. Sorry to disappoint you, President Jiang Zemin of China, but the Hang Seng is just another index to the world's stock markets. No offense sir, but the Chinese do not control it. Nobody does.
Mysterious Tao Seeks Balance:Nobody's Buying "Big Dipper!"
Some say big traders like George Soros control the market. Well, these traders are now worried about China's economy, interest rates and monetary policies. But, in truth, individual traders are irrelevant. The mysterious Tao runs all markets, just in case you have forgotten,
honorable president. And the Tao always seeks balance. And it looks like "balance" means China got too far ahead of the U.S. over the past 10 years. A couple days ago we discussed a study by the American Century family of funds. The conclusion? If the DJIA dropped 23% in one day, 67% of American mutual fund investors would "do nothing," that is, "hold," as in buy'n'hold. And 14% even said they'd "buy on the dip."
Well, are you "buying on this dip," call it the the "Hang Seng SuperTiger dip?" Do you think many Chinese nationals are buying on these dips? And is this strategy really the best one for a mutual fund investor looking at foreign funds in the portfolio?
Remember Tokyo's "Big Dipper?"Crashing: From 39000 To 13000.
In a revealing interview, Barron's recently spoke with market timer and technician Justin Mamis, noting at the outset his forecasting accuracy: "Ten years ago, right before the roof fell in, we quoted you in these pages warning about an imminent correction of, oh, 20%, though
you certainly didn't expect it in one day." Mamis warned against "buying on dips," as a deceptive lure of today's SuperBull market optimism. "They hardly let stocks dip, they are
so eager to buy. The comparison therefore, is not '87. The dangerous comparison is Tokyo."
"The Nikkei getting to 39,000, almost 40,000, was very similar, psychologically, to what's going on now... Our psychology was awful. Japan's psychology was powerful... They were convinced their markets would never go down."
Psychology Again: How SuperBulls Sucker You From Dip To Dip.
Now here's one of the best and simplest descriptions of what happens when the dips keep dipping into a crash and suckers investors into "buying on dips" until it's too late. "Think about what happens when everybody buys on dips. Suppose the market drops 10%. Well, you think: "They are entitled to go down 10%. We haven't had a 10% correction, this is not big deal, I'm going to buy on this dip. I'm not going to worry about it. Besides, I'm essentially locked into my long position. I can't sell because I know long term it's going to be terrific.
"Then the market bounces and you feel better. Then it comes down again and you say, 'Oh, this isn't so good.' And, you know, you can multiply that by five swings. It could take a long time before stocks get to the point where investors can't stand it anymore. And when you
get to that point, you are already down in these stocks."
Mutuak Funds: Buying On Dips" Yes, If You Have A Balanced SuperStar Portfolio.
Net result, Tokyo went from a rocketing SuperBull at 39,000 into a spiralling 65% "dip" to 13000. And Hong Kong's in a similar dip right now, "dipping" from the 16500 range in early August, to around 11500 currently. Earlier this summer a few other Asian markets and their
currencies ran into trouble.
Are you buying on these "dips?"
Don't get us wrong here. Buying on dips still makes sense. Buy'n'hold still makes sense. Just make darn sure you have a diversified portfolio to start with, so when Tokyo or Hong Kong go down, your whole portfolio doesn't go with it. That's the Tao's bottom line.

DONALD,


Been sitting infront of this machine hours....time to off..
try this: http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100p.htm
...off 2 days..the tiring asia markets....huiiiiiiiiiiiii!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/22/z0000_z00_35.html

Morning All! {;-}}
- Specially the Chartists & Boffs! I think this will interest you..

This morning I spoke to Fred Crook's daughter, who assists him. She gave me permission to reproduce a copyrighted article specifically for Kitcoites. I shall try to send this through in various postings, as it's quite large, and has been split into 3 x .jpeg files. I include an extract from the
the first page [the charts are on the back-see .jpegs],
I'm re-typing the main body of the article -it scanned badly due to a column format- but as a one-fingerer, it will only be posted over the week-end.

" INTRODUCING THE QUANTUM RHYTHM

New Environmental Considerations:/Geological Periods Revisited:/New Tectonic Proposals:/Geomagnetic Model Revised:/First Measured Direct Indicator:/New Eustatic Ideas:/New Solar Observations:/New Picture of the Brain:/New Extinction Scenarios:/Milankovitch Theory Overhauled:/New Weather and Climatic Concepts:/New Glaciation Explanation:/Species History and Cosmic Bond:/Galactic Plasma Dynamics Reviewed:/Part of New Geodynamic View:/Cosmology Incomplete:/Carbon Dioxide In Perspective:/Ozone Destruction Reconsidered

In this summary of his research into the effects of the "cosmic wave flux" which is precisely recorded in the cores taken from the ocean floor, polar ice and geological records, FREDERICK CROOKS, a retired physicist and architectural engineer, publishes his finding for the first time. These findings, based on precise scientific data, have remarkable implications. "
Extract from an article published by New Paradigms, 36 Ennis Rd, Parkview, 2193. RSA. :
Fred Crooks c/o Quark Publishing, Box 306 Howick 3290 RSA: Tel: +27 [0332 429732 Fax +27 [0331] 428642 e-mail: quark@pixie.co.za

 See File at PSP/ Crooks Theory.jpeg together with
 File PSP/Crooks Chart 1a.jpeg and File PSP/Crooks Chart 1b.jpeg which should be joined together.

Gee Bart { : -}} Morning !!

I see that I cannot upload these files with comments and charts fro you chaps- I have Internet Explorer....

Now what do I do??

Please help.....? Thank you.

Does anyone else everg the the feeling that no matter what the news is, it always works out to be favorable for equities and negative for the metals? I cannot ever remember a time like these last several years where absolutely nothing moves the gold market, not even currency crisis. I am afraid that the only thing that will ultimately move the gold market is..and I hate to even think this..is WAR!

Anybody remember when "Big Brother" tried to defend the British pound against the "currency speculators"? A spectacular failure followed by soaring gold prices. I feel like we're witnessing another truly watershed event. Today, the currency speculators are ganging up on the HK$.
( "Is it deja vu all over again?" ) The outcome is a foregone conclusion. The Nikkei will fall decisively below 17,000, triggering a massive tsunami that will engulf the entire financial system. This is the beginning of the end for the paper currencies. Buy coins with both hands, because soon you won't be able to get any for any price in paper. Best of weekends, mates ! !

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/21/z0000_z00_19.html

http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/roach.shtml

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/23/z0009_58.html

http://www.abcnews.com:80/sections/business/thai1022/index.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/22/z0000_z00_29.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/23/z0000_z00_44.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/23/y0004_z00_32.html

All: Donald, The Nicks, JTF, Mike, Panda? Aurator, are you also a chartist?

These Crooks Charts have GREAT relevance for the present STOCK Markets world-wide, and seem to validate all the other types of charting plus more. He certainly appears to have been right so far about this week's chaos!

Well, I'm really stumped now....think the best way would be to e-mail these files to whoever else would like to see them?

COLLEEN: Shame on you Colleen, what a tease you are! Can you post some text from Crooks even if the jpegs won't come over? Now my curiosity is whetted. And what's a "boff?" I know I'm a chartist, among other things. But am I a boff as well? Now you've given me an identity crisis.

WSJ - Is there no balm in Gilead? ( for gold of course )

October 24, 1997
Gold Gains a Paltry 0.34% On Stock-Market's Decline

By AARON LUCCHETTI
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

A 187-point fall in the Dow Jones
Industrial Average doesn't do much for
gold these days.

Long thought of as an alternative
investment to stocks in nervous markets,
gold did rise more than $2 an ounce at one
point Thursday. But gold for December
delivery retreated from that peak to close
at $324.70, up $1.10 an ounce at the
Comex division of the New York
Mercantile Exchange.

For months, gold analysts have been
projecting that a significant drop in
the stock market would lead to
renewed investment interest in gold. But
Thursday, gold bugs received a paltry
0.34% rise.

"Our funds see this as a very bearish sign,"
said Tim Porter, an analyst for Refco Inc.
in New York. "They can't believe it's not
up five bucks."

The lack of response stems partially from
the type of fears afflicting financial
markets of late. Because demand for gold
has been strong recently in Southeast Asia,
the financial problems in that region have
led to fear that investors and institutions
there will sell assets, including gold.
"People [in Asia] are getting margin calls,
so they're liquidating their hard assets,"
said Mr. Porter.

In addition, Asian demand has leveled off
simply because gold becomes more
expensive in Asian markets when local
currencies slide sharply, analysts point out.
That is because gold, which is priced in
dollars, acts much like a U.S. export,
becoming less attractive to buy when the
local currency is weak.

The impact of sharp declines in the
industrial average has also been muted
recently because of the increased volatility
in the industrial average and other major
stock-market indexes. "We've seen some
sharp falls throughout the year," said
Joseph Rosta, a metals analyst for CPM
Group, a precious metals consultancy. "But
the Dow has bounced back, so for U.S. and
European investors, the attitude is sort of
wait-and-see."

To be sure, Mr. Rosta noted that he is
seeing more interest in investments in gold,
which is typical when the stock market
takes a fall. But most analysts said gold
will need more sustained changes in the
financial markets to draw more investment
money. Also, lease rates to borrow the
metal stayed persistently above 2%,
showing continued demand to borrow the
metal in the short term.

Meanwhile, silver took a hit from selling
by speculative commodity funds, with the
December contract dropping 9.5 cents to
$4.938. Comex stockpiles, which have
been falling recently, held steady at 133.9
million metric ounces. Palladium and
platinum rose, buoyed by strong demand
from European industrial buyers, traders
added.

BOB M: Ugly thought. War is no guarantee of rising gold either. The Gulf War brought a mere blip up in a bear market. Nothing essentially more exciting than a reflex rally. However, if you're thinking of an all-out, end of the world, Armageddon, well, now you're talkin'. But I'll pass on any of that.

Colleen
You need a FTP program to upload to Kitco if you use MS Internet explorer.
You can find a FTP program at this site.
http://www.tucows.com/
If you want you can email the files to me and I'll upload them to Kitco.
Email above.

Put me on your Fred Crooks Charts email list Colleen.

Colleen- would be appreciative of the material you speak of to be emailed to me. Have been called a long term chartist, amongst other things.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/10/24/y0004_5.html

Donald: Thanks for the posts. I am not sure of what to make of all I have read and heard in the media. Just heard a talking guest head on CNN say that the Dow will be 30,000 by 1998 and that he would continue to hold stocks and is going to buy the dips for sure.

Yesterday I said this thing has taken on a life of it's own now and nothing will stop it as it forcefully and relentlessly corrects itself. Hong Kong, Japan and all the rest are putting in billions to try and stop the inevitable.

Have none of these people heard the expression, throwing good money in after bad money.

As I mentioned yesterday AM when everyone was so excited "When there is a crisis situation, that is when they will be all over the metals". Look at your charts 1st week of 95 Mexico/ July 96 correction in stocks/ April 97 correction in stocks and now. All to prevent development of safehaven investing which they could potentially not overcome. Were lookin at 320 today then more spin about how gold is not a safe haven. Just remember short gold in any crisis and you are almost guaranteed to make money. Looks like in a week HK may bemuch ado about nothing. There is too much at stake to let stks fall. Too important to the economy and the Govt and Wall St spin. When it finally does go watch out/ but when?

Hi Mike- So good to see you. I was getting desperate!! Our posts must have crossed.... went out for a walk in the garden in between...
Will just finish off pre-lunch chores [ This is SA-I don't make it!] then e-mail those jpegs to you so that you can look at them for the Clan.

Thanks.. {:-}}}}

Mike-Im not talking about an end of the world type, just a long drawn out conflict with several major powers. The Gulf war was no more than a military training exercise in reality with live ammo and live targets. What I am thinking is more a middle East type conflict with several combatants participating. War is inflationary.

GcZ7 now at 322 and SiZ7 now a 491. Hope that the supports hold-would hate to see guys like Hepcat prove right, except for the timing.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/z0000_z00_2.html

WW: much of what you say is true, I do not see gold moving south though. there is strong support at these levels. Even if several million people got nervous and bought gold it would keep it firm.

I do feel very strongly that the Asian currencies are not all that important in the grand scheme of things - why - I think the ultimate goal is a raid on the US dollar.

The entire Asian region is under intense pressure, the Chinese and Japan hold whopping amounts of US debt paper. Eventually they will have to dump it.

Good morning ALL.....Beautiful sunrise over Scaterie Island this morn..

Donald - re Greenspan postponing Oct. 28 meeting for one day. Here's
the relevant quote from Yahoo:

Greenspan delayed his testimony before Congress' Joint Economic Committee ( JEC ) to October 29 from October 28, which is when the Employment Cost Index ( ECI ) -- a key gauge of labor costs and widely seen as a
wage inflation barometer -- will be released.

Do you seriously think that Greenspan won't know all about this particular economic statistic on October 28? Or even earlier?
This speech should be interesting indeed.

Dec. gold down 2.80 @ 321.90

Bill: I agree and one thing which really bothers me is all the jockeying for entertainment positioning that is going on.

S+P futures up 12.80

Strong bounce in HK and spoos are up 11 bucks on globex. Bullion down three bucks. As I argued yesterday, stocks will not go down big time as long as the greenback is strong. And gold will not mount a sustained up move until the dollar bull is history.

That said the continued strong action of the gold stocks relative to bullion does suggest a 1993 type scenario. As APH has pointed out gold stocks maintained most of their gains from late 1992 to early 1993 as bullion made a new low. Then both took off.

Still see all the recent action as part of the topping process for stocks and the bottoming process for gold. A few more months of this see saw action probable before stocks break decisively down and gold turns decisively up.

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Friday October 24 6:24 AM EDT

London gold fixes lower, nervous at Swiss proposal

LONDON, Oct 24 ( Reuters ) - Gold prices edged lower and market sentiment turned weaker on
Friday morning after an announcement from Switzerland on proposed gold sales.

Advisors to the Swiss National Bank and the Finance Ministry in Berne today proposed selling
1,400 tonnes that would be surplus to reserves if Switzerland took the franc off the gold standard.

Switzerland has been considering changing its constitution on gold since early March when
proposals to re-value its reserves were first announced.

``That's why some people are saying this is not news but it is really very big news indeed,'' one
dealer said.

However the market was only mildly moved and fixed at $321.90 per ounce against $324.30 per
ounce on Thursday.

``If this was coming from the Swiss government or the national bank then it would be a lot more
worrying,'' one gold dealer said of the statement which emphasised the sale had to be discussed by
the government and would be subject to a referendum in 1999.

In March, the Swiss announced a plan to revalue the country's gold reserves closer to market value
and reduce the gold backing of the franc from 40 percent to 25 percent.

Part of the surplus these moves would release would be sold to establish a humanitarian fund for
victims of tragedy.

``It ( the market ) is drifting lower and it's a bit nervous. Before the Swiss announcement, there was
disappointment that New York had ended lower despite all the stock market turmoil,'' a dealer said.

The world's stock markets have shed billions of dollars in value over the past couple of days since a
collapse of equity values in Hong Kong triggered losses throughout Asia and into Europe and North
America.

A surge in the gold price was expected given gold's traditional role as a store of value but the move
amounted to no more than a couple of dollars and was short lived.

``That, and the Swiss announcement shows a deep apathy towards gold,'' one dealer said.

Talks in Asia of a South East Asian central bank selling gold from its reserves caused nerves to
jangle in that area.

Technically gold can expect support at $321.00 and $320.50 based on previous floor levels,
technical analysts said.

The other precious metals were also weaker with silver at $4.91/$4.93 down three cents.

Platinum and palladium were quiet and easier with the former indicated at $420.00/$422.00 down
$0.50 and palladium off $1.50 at $202.00/$204.00.

More news for related categories: stock capsules.


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Tolerant 1 you said the key word "support". That is what they are looking to break then hit stops and then hopefully the metals will languish for their usual ten to fifteen week period after each raid. The uptrend line still holding on silver which goes back to july is disturbing given tight supplies so this is what they are gunning for. There has to be beaucuop stops under that level. If hit the trend line and smash silver that should be sufficient to drive gold below 320. As soon as you saw gold only up a couple of bucks yesterday and silver a couple of cents even with the HK crisis thats how one knew they were at work with the predictable consequences. Their tenaciousness is just a reflection of how much is being made in financials, how much is at stake as they are now saying that the stk mkt effects consumer spending which is 2/3 of GDP.
S&P lookin good as long as gold under pressure/ They'll say HK created just another buying opportunity.

The CB gold sale rumors are well timed ( Swiss referendum in 1999 why tal about it today. THEY are ready to make headlines. Looks like 310 in the cards. Good timing 1 ) Friday 2 ) after a disappointing performance in light of HK 3 ) Needed technically to break silver which was leading the way up. If gold closed up today then I'd say the bull has begun.

Mike, Nick, Reify.

Three e-mails on their way to each of you.

Nick- Thanks for the tip- I shall get into tucows after lunch.

Mike: Kidding? You with an identity crisis??!

Reify: You'll certainly find Crooks interesting: he's done ENORMOUS research- a long, long way back!

WW and tolerant and Donald. Today and Monday will be the most critical market days in many a year. The psychology of market participants is set up for a dose of gut wrenching panic. There will obviously be an attempt to rally. But, if this rally should fail here, ask yourselves what will keep people from starting a stampede for the exits. WHAT POSSIBLE GOOD NEWS IS THERE LEFT TO ANTICIPATE IN ORDER TO REASSURE ONE'S TENDENCY TO FLEE? A good earnings season is winding down, but it needed to be great, not good. Interest rates look good, but they need to be great not just friendly. Inflation looks good, but can lower prices be great news for profits after years of down sizing? The economy looks good, but how can it get any better? In short, manic markets and greedy participants trade off the ability to construct "rosy scenarios" and we are fresh out of roses. Instead, we are in a position where the markets themselves need to keep on going in only one direction in order to feed the hope-belief that they will keep going in only one direction. A failed recovery at this point would crush that hope.

WW: There are tremendous financial resources at work to hold gold down. Clearly the vast majority of people are lulled into complacency by easy money. No thinking individual would place their life's savings into one basket as many the US have done in the stock market. The crushing blow being they are borrowing to do so, some are even charging their investments on plastic.

Gold is clearly a store of value and the only real money or so many would not be spending so much to combat it's historic validity as a store of value.

Financial maneuvering and politics aside. I have long felt that silver is the major metal play. I for one am loaded 6 to 1 in mining stocks with six representing silver. They can not explain away the simple laws of supply and demand.

It is a deadly game which is being played out before us. My reasoning in posting $400 gold in December and DOW plummeting around or soon after is due to what I see as the realities of the financial house of cards.I believe that any one of a number of things would bring about catastrophy.

Congrats on another great call EB ( his call last night ) " Friday will be a baaaad day for gold"....Dec. gold down 2.90 @ 3-2-1.80 ...but the FISH ( especially that Alou dude ) still SUK....S+P futures up 12.0

Hi Tolerant1: What to make of all the news? I think it is safe to say that no businessman, central banker, politician, or investor can plan in this chaotic environment. Everything seems to strengthen the Deflation outlook. An earlier post showed that Central Banks sold U.S. Treasuries yeesterday into the treasury rally. They apparently used the funds to buy local stocks, probably in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan and Korea.

As to the U.S. market, the media is treating a 186 point drop like 1929 when we are only down 5% from the August top! That insight into market psychology leads me to believe that the mood has changed to the downside. The failure of gold to react has me confused. Perhaps everyone has their money fully committed to paper and no one has funds available to purchase gold. If that is the case we are in for big trouble.

BOB M: The mid-east war scenario appears to be the most likely one to involve world powers in a sticky, and potentially drawn-out situation as you describe. The dangers of extreme destructiveness are also obvious. Noel Tyle, a very excellent and respected astrologer ( at least among astrologers ) did a study which demonstrates a very powerful linkage between Israel and the United States, and the Arab world, in the year 2000. June I believe being the flash point for what he sees coming. I'm not one of these folks who thinks the year 2000 is special other than that it kicks off a new Century ( or ends an old one ) but I do respect his work, and he was marvelous prior to and during the Gulf War. This is the only scenario I can see right now that could bring in non-local elements in the kind of showdown that leaves a very large difference of opinion and a high likelihood of extended resource mobilization for destruction, and rehabilitation. Inflationary to be sure.

Donald,all: Hong Kong may be up, but at what price? Interest rates 300%. Does anyone know what they are?
Colleen: Interesting post from that Physicist on quantization of macroscopic phenomena. There is another physicist by the name of Ray Tomes who has an interesting web site that discusses such matters: quantization of the galactic red shift, orbital periods of the planets.
Also Dewey and the "Foundation for the Study of Cycles". Ray Tomes site is:

http://www.vive.com/connect/universe/

This stuff is becoming mainstream Physics ( some of it ) and offers a clue as to how cycles of natural phenomena are synchronized. Noone yet knows why. The Dewey site is a massive collection of information on cycles, stock market included. Probably the worlds largest collection of historical recordings of natural cycles. Even war cycles in China going back thoursands of years. The Foundation for C analysis goes back to 1930's when Dewey was hired by ( I believe ) that unfairly maligned former president of ours, Herbert Hoover. I can't find the web site for this one-just search for Edward R. Dewey. They wanted to find out why the great crash, and prevent it from ever happening again.

Colleen: Does your source have a web site?

O'tay guys. Please correct me if I am wrong. We are entering the holiday/religious seasons. Gold is at 12 year lows. Those little catalogs flow throughout the year and hit maddening mass in mailboxes this time of year in the states.

No matter how they explain it away as seasonal purchases and such. The plain fact is demand is up. Just not in the US and relative to the US dollar.

Too much conflicting news. CB selling, the Swiss talk, India lsoing restrictions, Veneroso pointing out mistakes in tonnage, and on and on. And the kicker, mines are closing down left and right.

I wish the Swiss would sell all their gold, I hope more mines close faster, in my mind the stage is set for the simple laws of supply and demand to kick in.

Interesting to note that on panic thursday we had weak yen and strong euros. On apparently manic Friday we have the opposite/ any comments or insight?

Talking to my futures broker this afternoon about SPX options.
He was on a line to US while I spoke to him and verified that I could not purchase any SPX put options under 890 at market and that they would not even let me put in a bid under this figure to see if I could create a market.
Last week these options were trading freely daily down to 675.
Some of the options I have all ready puchased, he now claims are unavailable.
Either he is wrong or the market makers are getting very worried about risk within the markets.
Some of the deep out of the money puts on Aussie shares that I already hold are starting to show the same characteristics. They are quoting bid/ask but when you raise the bid they just move right away from you.

This recent push down on gold is a last ditch effort to make it the least respected investment hedge when this dam breaks.

Charts below cover my Swing charts for AMEX, Nasdaq, NYSE.
Also added advance/decline charts

JTF - I think the last number I saw was 70%, but check that. I made a mistake of a few thousand tons drawing on memory yesterday in one of my posts.

A couple of days ago I posted that the bear market in gold was caused by a lack of investment demand and that all the conspiracy/subterfuge/intrigue stories which abound ( the latest one involving a gold for oil deal ) made for good reading but were completely fictitious. It has since occurred to me that the reason such theories gain credence amongst supporters of gold is the misconception that the demand for gold exceeds the supply of gold, an idea which is promoted by the World Gold Council. After all, if the demand for something does exceed its supply by a substantial amount and for a long time, and the price goes down, then it is logical to assume that there must be dark forces at work to manufacture this unreal situation. The problem is, whenever you start from an incorrect premise and then develop your arguments based on flawless logic, you must necessarily arrive at the wrong conclusion.. The incorrect premise on which many arguments are based is that gold demand exceeds supply.

The incorrect premise occurs because many people still fall in to the trap of thinking about gold's supply and demand in the same way as they would for any other commodity. If you do this you calculate that the fabrication demand for gold far exceeds the supply of newly mined gold, but forget that there are 120,000 tonnes of above ground supply. This above ground supply, which results primarily from the fact that gold has been accumulated as money throughout history, potentially means that gold supply will always vastly exceed the current fabrication demand for gold. I say "potentially" because there periodically comes a time when this above ground stock is not an available source of supply at the prevailing spot gold price. This occurs when the investment, or monetary, demand for gold increases such that the existing holders of monetary gold are not prepared to sell at the current market price. ( It should be noted at this point that more than 60% of the world's supply of monetary gold is held in private hands ) .

The investment demand for gold is inversely proportional to the confidence in the national currencies ( and financial assets in general ) . In recent years this confidence has been at its highest level since the floating exchange rate system came into effect in 1971, therefore gold has languished. Put another way, the investment demand for gold is currently at its lowest level since 1971. The tide is beginning to turn and confidence in paper assets appears to be waning, so we are not far away from a bull market in gold ( although I still think we have a 50% chance of seeing new lows before it gets underway ) .

One last point regarding the demand for gold. Many people in Asia who buy gold for investment purposes will allocate a certain amount of money each year to the purchase of gold. When the gold price drops they will get more ounces for their money and when it increases they will get less. Everything else being equal ( which it never is ) , the lower the gold price the higher the quantity of gold which will be imported into Asia. To find out whether gold investment demand in a country is increasing whilst the price of gold is dropping, you need to calculate the change in the quantity of gold imported into the country expressed in terms of the national currency of the country.

IMCO, one need look no further than investment demand in order to understand the current gold price.

Cheers, Milhouse

TOLERANT 1, ALL: There can be no question that the world financial structure is poised for the third time this century at the likely crossroads of a major secular asset inversion. The first was 1929 - 36, the second was 1972 - 80. In each case, 20 years of paper bull finally unravelled and an equal period of dormant gold gave birth to a roaring gold bull. The only question in my mind at this point is what the configuration of the changeover will be. In '29, it took 3 years of straight down decline in paper to bring about the conditions to boost gold ( 1934 ) . In more recent times, the stock market topped in 1966 after two decades of advance, but see-sawed mightily with two bear markets and returns to its highs, before coming down from 1000 for the big one during '73 and '74 ( a 50% decline ) . So while I do believe that the bottom in gold is in, it will be fascinating to see the patterns made in the major asset markets over the next 2-3 years. I somehow think that too many people are looking for a "crash" for things to just turn around immediately. That goes for both gold and stocks. In any event, the continued strength in bonds and the Utilities raises the likelihood that no extended and severe stock bear will be forthcoming for a while. I stress the word "likelihood" however.

WW: No imput from me, that whole currency thing is beyond me, now talk Hen and Taco and I might be able to help.

The markets giveth and the markets taketh ( no big conspiracy "out there".. )

MILHOUSE: You are absolutely correct that this is a "supply" problem for gold, and that the culprit is the decades, indeed in some cases centuries old hoards of gold held by central banks and other state institutions. The fact that a once sacrosanct store of wealth is now utilized as a supply-side trading and manipulative asset by such institutions, for whatever reason, is indeed a supply "problem" for gold, and manifestation of a supply dynamic. Just as the massive growth in paper instruments is a supply phenomenon which, by the nature of excessive plenty keeps the price of money ( interest ) down as well. The great dilution will occur as all this created credit oozes out of the paper markets into the real world where we ALL live. Unless it is extinguished first. As well, the restriction of bank hoard gold supply from the market will then come about as this dilution, or extinguishing, becomes a thorny problem for society and financial institutions alike. Then the inversion will be complete, and gold must perforce reflect a reestablished parity with paper. It will be the metal's turn.

Oh Milhouse: I just finished reading your post for the third time. As usual your articulate perspicacity is to be admired and respected. I do not jest when I utter the following. You agree with what I said, but I listed all the wrong reasons and yet reached the same conclusion .

Gold, silver, paper, up down, down up; morning Ted; reminds me of the following story:

Eke and Zeb decided to build a bungee jumping tower in Cabo San
Lucas, to make a little money. After they got it set up, they noticed
the crowds gather, but nobody bought tickets....

Zeke tells Zeb, "Maybe we should demonstrate it, so they'll get the
idea." After Zeb is strapped in he jumps, falling almost all they way
to the ground before springing back.

As Zeb came back up, Zeke noticed that his clothes were all torn
and wondered what this is was all about.

Zeb went down again, bouncing as jumping this way does, and this time
when he came back, up Zeke noticed that Zeb was bleeding.

Zeke thought, "Wow...what's going on here? Is the cord too short?
Is he touching ground?

Zeb went back down for a third time, and this time when he sprung
back up, Zeke noticed that he had blood, contusions and cuts all
over his body. "Huh?"

Zeke pulled Zeb in and said, "Zeb, what happened?"

Zeb groaned out in obvious pain, "I don't know... but what's a pinata?

Dec Gold just bounced up over two bucks and is now only down .70 @ 3-2-4
JIN: Dead cat bounce is probably correct.....and thank you for all your contributions to Kitco as they are appreciated by all!!---have a good weekend ( if possible? )

Mornin Tort!!

Milhouse: Agree entirely with your recent post, but would add that a well financed propaganda campaign and cheap CB gold loans have made the gold bear more severe than it would otherwise have been.

Let the Swiss dump it all. The faster the better. I want to buy CHEAP.

Must of been a typo...dec. gold down 3.0 @ 3-2-1.70

The thing which escapes me is that were the world awash in gold it would eventually still hold a value.

The world has before and is now awash with paper money and the end result in each and every historic instance is that paper ends up being worthless.

I just cannot fathom how the populace does not see that.

Yer call is lookin better by the minute....Dec.gold down 4.70----back to the wood pile ( arrrggggh )

Mike, Nick @? Reify:

Sorry!- it seems as if those two subsequent files [Charts] were duplicated e-mail-Two of each in my 'Outbox'. Remember to keep Charts 1a and 1b jpeg.

JTF- Thanks for that info. I shall go in and have a look.

JDisney.... Where are you? Were you at Fred Crook's lecture on Sunday?

It would appear that my previous assessment for a potential breakdown was a day orr two early. But I said it would be a double dip. Perhaps todays move will essentially be both of them rolled into one. We'll see!

Bart -- Your numbers across the top aren't working!

Gold just went into free fall. EB deserves a prize. Done 5.30 and diving.

Done=Down

EB: Let me polish your crystal ball sir. It seems you have blown gold.......


away.


Now I'm off to cuddle with my shareholder's list...

Milhouse: Your post did explain the over supply of Gold, I agree with you on this point; however, I have a couple of Questions.
1. You did not address why the CBs are selling?
2. Or why the apparent strategically timed massive sales have occurred.
2. You did not address who is buying all of this Gold?
3. And why is Japan selling their Gold, we have been told that they have so little.
I agree it is not a conspiracy, it is just the good old boys doing business as usual.

New contract lows.

315.5 Dec contract. 3 bucks below previous contract low! Now, does it go for more? Does it bounce back up? Watch the activity!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/z0000_9.html

Rumors and proposals. Don't you just love it!

Yahoo has the Swiss Franc down 1% but shows UK stocks down 21 while CNBC shows up 100. Use these figures with caution.

Millhouse-you sure make a lot of good points and have opened my eyes to thois supply situation. There is too much gold in the world with the ONLY factor able to drive it up significantly is a major catastrophe for people to flee in to it. I think one is much better off when buying gold to focus on coins with a high degree of rarity. I feel that gold is done as an investment for the forseeable future, with the only buy signal being an impending war. All this collapse and meltdown of markets is just like the rolling corrections often referred to in the US market, one goes down, another goes up...I would be willing to bet those Asian markets that have just tanked..will be significantly higher within a year. When I hear stories of how Soros just made a killing on the cuurency crisis there, why should anyone want to kill these money making games? The rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer. Thanks for your insight

Bart I am not receiving an update on your 24 hours 3 day gold chart. Shall it come on line soon? I measure its value man times a day. Also, I use frames when reading the rhetoric on the discuss page. BUT I can never seem to get it to be live. Currently I am looking at 2:16 this morning.

Nick Aussie Where do you get the number contract outstandings either long or short fro on the web. I read in an earlier posting that you made about the number of shorts waiting to be filled.

Thanks in advance. Hello to all I am in as much shock as some of you but I did not pre order, therefore not exposed. What do you all think the down side is? 311 spot and 317 FEB

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/y0004_z00_8.html

You guys are awfully blase' this morning. You seem to be unaware of the danger to the world financial system posed by the unraveling which could take place. Just one food-for-thought observation: the hedging which takes place when derivatives are priced requires the acquisition of off setting debt instruments. Given 30 trillion, ( or is it 40 or 50 or 70 trillion ) of derivatives out there, how can even a small portion of these be safely off set. There isn't going to be that much to go around. Most of you worry about the price of gold. This because you've been lulled into thinking of it as a commodity. As a commodity, of course there's too much of it. How much jewelry can the world use? As money, don't worry about the price of gold, worry about the price of currencies and other paper in terms of gold.

The "Boys" running this world cabal must be pretty damned scared now - withness their panic dumping of gold this morning. Anything to divert attention from gold while their lap-dog press laddles out "confidence". The telling thing will be the action of the gold stocks today...

just watched the bounce off $317 ... chuckle ... that metal must be disappearing as fast as it they put on the auction block.

Carl -- It pays better to buy at the right time. That's all. I think we all the the unraveling that is taking place. Gold and silver are NOW very close, if not at, at least a short term buying point. They have the potential to do a bit more downside first, though not necessarily. Silver has me autious at the moment 'cause I think it SHOULD drop below 4.70 on the Dec contract. Beyond that, I'm very optimistic!

Yesterday when I suggested caution was in order, I had no idea that it might be this much caution. It will be interesting to see how the gold stcoks respond today. A 5% drop or a 10% drop? Probably closer to the latter. I see Hong Kong made a 7% recovery and both China and Japan markets up along with most European stock markets.

Friday October 24 8:23 AM EDT

NY precious metals called to open lower

NEW YORK, Oct 24 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were expected to open lower Friday after a group of experts appointed by Swiss National Bank and Swiss finance ministry proposed selling 1,400 tonnes of gold as part of an effort to take the country off the gold standard.

COMEX December gold was called down $2.00 from Thursday's close of $324.70 an ounce after trading from $321.30 to $325.00 on ACCESS.

The London gold fix lost $2.40 on the news, but floor traders in New York were bracing themselves for larger losses.

``You make an announcement like that and what do you think is going to happen? The Swiss probably left $10 million on the table by making this announcement,'' quipped one floor trader.

``According to all the experts, there should be no significant erratic indluence on gold prices from a cautious and phased sale,'' Finance Ministry director Ulrich Gygi tolf a news conference.

The sale would leave the bank with 1,190 tonnes remaining in its reserves.

In other news, Taiwan's central bank is unlikely to liquidate its gold reserves to protect against its dollar, Taipai traders said Friday, despite rumors to the contrary that circulated a month ago.

In the bullion market, spot gold was $320.50/$1.00 an ounce, compared with the early London fix, which was $321.90 an ounce, and the New York close, which was $323.40/90 an ounce.

The one-month implied lease rate was 2.78 percent, while the one year rate was 2.65 percent.

COMEX gold warehouse stocks were off 33,738 ounces to 777,206 ounces in Thursday's report, while COMEX silver stocks were unchanged at 133,901,501 ounces.

COMEX December silver was called to open down 3.0 to 4.0 cents from Thursday's close of $4.938 an ounce.

NYMEX January platinum was called to open down $4.00 to $5.00 from its previous close of $422.90 an ounce, while NYMEX December platinum was called to open $3.00 lower from Thursday's close of $203.45 an ounce.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
More news for related categories and industries: mining, stock capsules.

I've fallen through the looking glass. Feel like the adjutant in "Twelve O'clock High," who, when asked by Gregory Peck if he was drunk, replied: "Yes, I think I am, and I may stay this way for some time."

It feels like a rigged game. Market forces don't play out as they should because of the CBs. Silver stocks show an obvious and worsening shortage, yet the spot and futures continue to drop. Currencies around the world are under siege, yet gold drops because the best "safe haven" is the US dollar - a bubble funded by Saudi oil dollars and Japanese electron dollars.

Maybe I should just quit paying attention. Go off, stomp in the mountains, shoot Bambi, and tune in again in a couple months to see which CB has the dump gold duty that week. Adios.

There are only 2 possibilities to run up the price of gold:

#1-Major country decides to back currency with gold
#2-Major global conflict
Other than that, I think were spinning our wheels in the sand trying to figure it out

Mike Sheller : The above ground supply only continues to be a problem whilst private investment demand is low. Many of the "problems" for gold only exist because gold is money.

Tolerant1 : Thanks

GSC : CB and Govt propaganda will always be anti gold, simply because gold and national currencies compete for investment interest. Now we just need the Germans to announce a sale and the gold bear will be complete.

Highrise : Each CB pretty much looks after its own best interests which is, as you say, business as usual.

Bob M : I didn't mean to paint a negative picture regarding gold supply/demand, only to explain the current price. I am actually very bullish on gold in the medium term as I believe that it will take progressively higher and higher prices to bring the above ground supply to the market once private investment demand picks up.

Cheers, Milhouse

Let "them" sell as much as they want or need to. Let the price drop. Gold will always be gold. Silver, silver. The flux of currency valuations can never alter the true value of these metals. Their value is in their substance, which is the exact opposite of currencies. Their value is in people's vacillating opinions. If the CB's thought so little of gold they would dump it all without reservation. In this case it is a matter of 'actions speaking louder than words'. CB's hold gold and manipulate it because it IS value in the most fundamental sense. In fact they can never alter its value, just currencies relation to it. Inversion means people finally wake up and realize that currencies are not substance. Opinion adjustment again, except that it is always gold and silver that they return to not to coconuts, hog jowls or glass beads. PM's are the fulcrum upon which currencies totter, not the other way around. They are the reference point that is never removed from the equation and to which people always return after wandering in dreamland. Awake! Thou sleeper: The day is upon you.

Let "them" sell as much as they want or need to. Let the price drop. Gold will always be gold. Silver, silver. The flux of currency valuations can never alter the true value of these metals. Their value is in their substance, which is the exact opposite of currencies. Their value is in people's vacillating opinions. If the CB's thought so little of gold they would dump it all without reservation. In this case it is a matter of 'actions speaking louder than words'. CB's hold gold and manipulate it because it IS value in the most fundamental sense. In fact they can never alter its value, just currencies relation to it. Inversion means people finally wake up and realize that currencies are not substance. Opinion adjustment again, except that it is always gold and silver that they return to not to coconuts, hog jowls or glass beads. PM's are the fulcrum upon which currencies totter, not the other way around. They are the reference point that is never removed from the equation and to which people always return after wandering in dreamland. Awake! Thou sleeper: The day is upon you.

There is no coincidence between the turmoil in Asia and todays announcement by the Swiss. This is how the new world order operates and how financial crisis are now handled.
Meanwhile look out Gold, down 7.60, and probably a long way to go yet....... :- ( (

At 6:48 PST Canadian gold stocks: K off 8%; TVX off 5.5%; ABX off 4.9%; ELD off 8%; SSO no trades; ASM up 3%; FSR off .7%. Silver stocks seem to be holding better than gold.

Ridge, the Swiss gold sale "announcement" just "happens" ... chuckle ... why do you think the Swiss/Nazi thing has come up this year? We in the West "just" happened to "discover" that they were associating with the filthy Nazi's? Like we didn't know it fo rthe last fifty years? Another chuckle. The Boys needed to get that gold out from the Swiss and they needed it done NOW. Simple press-media blackmail. Let's see, who's left after the Swiss have had the gun put to their head? The United States? Why not, let's see ... we wiped out the American Indian, that's as good as a war crime. Let's dump that gold on the market too to get reparation payments for them.

Do you see what is going on here: those who are controling this world wide game are working to a time-table leading to global, cashless, electronic funds transfer. There must be *NO* uncontrolled, anonymous currency. Paper currency is just a passing token until they are ready.

The only thing that can stop them is a commodity-based money. Gold. They hate it as vampires hate the sunlight.

If the numbers are correct in the LBMA posts wherein it is stated that they are clearling aprox. 930 tons a day, on a forty five week basis this would be - 209,250 tons.

Why would a Swiss sale of 1400 tons, drive gold prices in any direction. Especially given either the massive mistakes on tonnage reported by respected analysts, or the direct felonious altering of the tonnage moving from here to there, how do the numbers have any bearing whatsoever on the price of gold.

The epistemological aspects of this topic are beyond my capacities. Clearly with no level playing field, zero rules of governance; speculation, theory, conspiracy and conjecture rule the moment.

The mass-media, talking head-politico's platitudes are for the lemmings. The thoughts displayed here at Kitco are interesting and I am thankful for them.

Bottom line, when people wake up to the nightmare of fiat money, gold will become the apple of the world's eye, and hopefully goldbugs can reap some profits before the supply of paper has reached worthless oblivion.

I will hold and accumulate the metals believing in my especially deluded dimentia that gold is money, paper is not. The lower the metals go the more Monopoly paper I will trade in for them.

Special thanks to Milhouse and Mike Sheller for your comments earlier this morning. I greatly appreciate your posting them as they related to my post. Everybody else, enjoyed reading your thoughts.

The rest of my day has been decided by the fates, it's out the door, across the street to the beach. Skimming stones on the water and placating myself with Tequila telling God Lemon's are not needed, I like mine straight. Hopefully I will be able to stagger back and read some more of all of your thoughts through bloodshot and less pessimistic eyes.

A special thought to Jin, as you are living the media events spewing forth from from our televisions here in the US. I will hoist a special toast to an improved betterment of your situation.

For now, Namaste' and Via Con Dios to you all. Peace.

In presenting my version of "The Jabberstock", I acknowledge my debt and inspiration to the fellow who came up with the original version...

The Jabberstock

T was bullig, and the slithy Pols
Did scheme and orchestrate til all were crazed.
Despite the markets fevered Strm und Drang,
The Wall Street shills remained unfazed.

Beware the Jabberstock, my son! The spreads that bite, the assets that fail!
Shun the Econ'mist's word and stockbroker's tale!

He took his golden sword in hand:
Long time the Fiat foe he sought
Seeking tangibility so invested he,
And pondered that which he had bought.

And as in Noble thought he stood,
The Jabberstock, dressed as Goldilocks
Came skulking with scenario too good,
Exalting muni bonds and high-tech stocks.

Snicker-snack! Chip Blue! Chip Red!
Can Microsoft be truly dead?
Through the

Through the ephemeral foe
The glitt'ring blade sped
Severing its vacuous worthless head.

And hast thou slain the Jabberstock? Come, my son, to the Golden Reef!
Enjoy your Sov'reign and Maple Leaf!
O frabjous joy! O glorious day
Palladium has truly led the way!

T was panic, and the slithy Pols
Did gyre and stumble, gnash their teeth.
An Invisible Hand bashed their heads,
And brought their ruinous plans to grief.

Hey George Cole!! Me and you; huh? Me and you. I'm short the gold stocks and your looking for them to decline. Good call.

To the other kitco ites I am looking forward to when one of your gurus says "I hope gold drops some more 'cause I just love barrrrgins."

I haven't finished my tap dancing on your heads yet.

Oh bye the way, I use stops so If the market turns, I flip and go long.

God I love that gold. Go gold!!!

One hopeful sign to you gold bugs; there is now a gap on the XAU above the current XAU level

In retrospect we shouldn't be surprised. If gold rises to fast or at the wrong time, like now, the whole system comes unglued. All the shorts find themselves in positions where they have to cover themselves, but the gold just ain't there to do it. Thus the Swiss CB to the rescue, or the Canadian, or German, or Austrailian, depending on whose turn it is. The scenario we're seeing now really parallels Martin Armstrong's predictions. He called for a market correction of 20% to 40% between the summer of 97 and the summer of 98, with the really big stock blowoff coming in 2003. This is when he predicts gold will really take off. His minimum target is $1000-$1200. Also the uncertainy factor could cause it to soar to $4000-$5000. By now the central banks have to be asking themselves how much longer they can play this game of talking down gold, or selling paper gold. They have to be aware of the tremendous upside potential, and are looking for ways to control it and use it to their advantage. They must know that it is imperative to unwind all these gold shorts in an orderly fashion. Thus I predict that after all this asian stock market and currency volatility subsides we are going to see gold rise.

Another, I'm greedy come out with another post. Who ever you are, your're playing the kitcoites like a violin.

Ouch!!!!! Well, the clear picture is that the world markets are headed down. This play with gold won't stop the slide.

Dancing -- As I posted earlier, I still think silver has to accomplish a drop. I believe there is a good chance, especially with golds current behavior,, that it too may drop some more. At least to form a double bottom. Perhaps further. In other words, I like bargains! Maybe Hepcats call was only off by a day! I can allow that! If we see 310 gold, and I think he's talking spot, I'll have to buy him a couple beers. My pleasure!

The possibility of a Hong Kong dollar devaluation is hanging over stocks. Gold is still above the July low, the Dow/Gold Ratio at this moment is 24.94, still saying that gold is the better investment. Not to worry.

Ridgerunner, I know how you feel. Perhaps its time for me to dust off that other bottle of Dickel, kind of the hair of the dog that bit me in July. I should give up working on my days off, would've cancelled a buy order I had in! Ah well, there is dry powder left, though with shots fired that ricocheted to no effect on this kevlar covered bear, I believe I will try a few of another kind. Here's a cyber toast across cyber space to you! And after that it'll be back to bear hunting!

EB .....ka...ching - love your crystal ball - such a great call

Donald
http://www.esi.co.uk/
Register then go to ESIQuote Free
You will now have a live list of the FTSE 100 updating every few minutes

Asianmgt
Go to
http://www.gofutures.com/Daily/
and download foptions.zip also futures.zip

!!!!!!!

O.K. That being said, so the swiss PROPOSE the sale of 1400 tons of gold. The stock market has problems, period. Has anyone noticed how the 'multiplier' of the SPX and Dow have narrowed so much? It used to be twelve to fifteen points on the Dow equaled one point on the SPX. Now it is about eight points. I haven't checked in to this, but I suspect that this is due to the the narrowing of the stock leadership. In other words, fewer and fewer stocks are driving both indexes, especially the S&P 500. Also, I believe that stocks common to both indexes are driving the indexes. This is not healthy, if it is true. I'll have to take a look over the weekend.

I guess the only way to own gold with out losing your shirt is by owning the physical stuff. At least you have some metal instead of a bankrupt company.

Mike, Which? Nick, Reify.

Your last 2 x e-mails have now been sent. Please check your boxes?

JTF: Interesting Tome's site. Thank you! It seems to me that Crook's theory may be what he's looking for in what he calls 'The Formula for the Universe" by which I mean the FIELD EQUATION that makes the whole show tick"

I'm ALSO hoping gold will go right down at the right time for me to get a property deal thru, so that I can buy lots and lots and lots of lovely gold coins!

The snow + and the ocean are a pretty sight....EB: I bow @ your feet and await yer next call......

Crystal Ball: the slaying of the Jabberstock brought a smile to my face. Thanks. Unfortunately AG and the Knomes of Zurich are keeping him alive for a while longer.

Surprised....yes a bit .... The weakness yesterday said an awful lot about the ability of the powers to be to control a situation. THAT was more of a surprise to me. What will this situation now prove? Exactly whether there is a link between Oil prices and Gold as "Another" has written. This could be interesting. Hep, nice call...You're still a pain but nice call. EB.... you can now use .50 anytime you want...nice call ... GSC really nice call. You were absolutely right on yesterday with you rational thoughts. Thanks. Donald, I think your latest about the currency crisis still looming is correct. All my TA says metals shall rise. Perhaps we chould get the CB's to take a course in reading TA .... Maybe they already have and know exactly when I'm going to buy ! Maybe I'll just turn the monitor on its head and fool them all to hell !!!!

TTFN

Thankfully the scale on the 24 hr spot gold chart has been condensed, the slide looks less ugly.

Group- I think we are all looking at the Swiss statement as the reason for the large drop in the gold price, however if you look back over the past
few days it would make sense to me that we are seening large gold sales
from asian markets. Since 1965 they have increased there holdings 158% to 2500 tonnes. They have the gold to sell and they need the money now!

Group- I think we are all looking at the Swiss statement as the reason for the large drop in the gold price, however if you look back over the past
few days it would make sense to me that we are seening large gold sales
from asian markets. Since 1965 they have increased there holdings 158% to 2500 tonnes. They have the gold to sell and they need the money now!

To all: As I recall, the Swiss people must approve this in a referendum -- this cannot be. Sounds to me that someone is getting desperate if news like this is getting out. The Swiss, of all people would never "go off the gold standard" This is like the Rothschilds selling 1/2 their gold. As someone very wise said - Nevah happen!
Interesting, isn't it that the floor did not drop out of the gold bullion market! I wonder why?

Eldorado, you like bargains now, but after you get your bargains, Bill Buckler or someone else will say " I hope gold drops some more 'cuase I just love Barrrgains."

The gold bugs are trying to pick bottoms and not catch a trend..which is and has been down.

At what point do the mines start consolidating? Clearly, at these prices and lower ( ! ) , many mines will be closed for economic reasons. Will we see a slew of take-overs then? Will the ABXs and NEMs of the world go on a shopping spree?

Ah, never mind! It's clear to me now! Aliens from space have landed and taken over the planet. They control everything now. Jean Luc Picard, Capt'n Kirk, Spock, Data, where are you? Superman where are you? Get me a phazer! :- ) )

DOW droppin like a ROCK now.

Do you get the feelin that somebody out there jest don't like us GOLD BUGS!

Tally Ho

What! The Dow is down 13??? Gold? down too?

This is ugly man. I want to puke. $280 anyone ???

comex gold down NINE dollars....Dow down 12.53

Panda
So much weighting in so few stocks. Look at INTC, daily, weekly,monthly and check out the % this stock holds in many of the indices.
INTC has gapped down and is now breaking its weekly support line. New trend established - down.

Todays efforts by the dow is pitiful and incipid.
GE the market leader left a breakaway gap yesterday, and boy the powers who be don't like it. When this baby breaks the dow will be looking over the edge. They know this and are supporting this share to the max - bid 56,000 but they just sell into it.

60% plus of the shares that make up the Dow Inds are making long term failure signals at the moment.
The markets internals are close to reaching confirmation of a failure.
If the people walk away from the dow today, then the rest of the world will be signaled that lack of confidence.
Then the fun begins.

$TRIN at 1.63 and tick at -321 Not a good sign... Comex and LBMA boys, take some prozac and do like the Wall Street boyz done in the last two years! Quote from Alfred E. Neuman ( MAD Comic strip ) "What! Me, worry?"

My call on this market ( gold ) is that gold's only chance may be that the market is going to go into a major decline NO MATTER what happens to go up, down, sideways. Once the powers to be realize that, they will abbandon their derivatives encompassing the pm's.

On the positive side Hm is down only 3/4. Where are the gold stock dipsters. A paradymn ( sp ) shift.

Panda
What's your take on the selling preasure in equities this morning?
What are your indicators telling you that the public are doing ?

gold will go up gold will up gold will go up will go up gold will up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up gold will go up-all work and no play make Johnny a dull boy

So much for keeping your funds in Switzerland. Time to move your money, but where???? New Zealand ????

Ted -- Howdy! Snow did you say?

Nick -- Who would want to go long today, Friday, and worry over the weekend? Only the Dippies would do that. The smart money, I think, will wait this one out. You are right in your implication of distributive selling. Like I said, Dippies beware!

mikeharry -- The .280 Rem is a fine calibre! Just like a 7mm-06. I've long like the 7mm bore in rifles. I never liked the 7mm Rem Mag calibre though.

Sorry, you were talking about gold! Oh, whowants that stuff anyhow! :- ) ) ( Sorry mikeharry, it was attempt at bad humor. Come to think of it, it was bad. ) Perhaps it's time to take a long walk in the mountains, or perhaps along the sea shore.

Go ahead you lowlife paper pushers, smash us harder, were getting used to it fast. Keep it coming baby.

Dancing -- I mentioned new contract lows in my Tuesday, 13:12 posting. How it got there is a little different than my posted scenario. Dec hogs not doing too shabbily either! Still waiting on sub 4.70 Dec silver. That, I believe will be the new short term turning event in the two metals.

Nick -- I try not to do anything during the first hour of trading. This is to let the overnight order banks to empty out. It's not looking pretty right now. If we take out 7760 to 7765, there could be a lot more downside here.

I don't own it but FCX is up today. That's right mikeharry..I will continue to close my eyes and buy.

Not looking at cause/effect. Equities get buggered. Selling produces cash. Money has gotta go somewhere, eh? Gold dropping, though! No, don't wanta put money there. Where else can I put money? Ahhh! Bonds and treasuries. Just the ticket. They are "safe". For now, anyway. Doesn't matter 'why' just is. Markets are like that, you know. Money drains from Latin Markets to cover Asian losses. Money has gotta go somewhere, come from somewhere. Oh, can't do SPX less than 875 now? Insurance drying up, eh? Liquidity problems got ya down? 125% loan on your house will tide ya over. Got plenty of money, coming from somewhere. Ooops! Need that money back now, its gotta go somewhwere else.

Dippies reigned for 20 minutes this AM. Flaming "Cherokee" arrows will discipline them all. More negative territory for equities today. NO MONEY LEFT IF THEY ARE ROBING PETER TO PAY PAUL!!! Insurance market ( derivatives ) will kick in soon and then we will see wrath, gnashing and wailing. Money's gotta come from somewhere, ya know.

NY precious metals lower early, led by gold slump

NEW YORK, Oct 24 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures slid lower early Friday, led by a tumble in gold prices, after news of a Swiss proposal to sell 1,400 tonnes of gold, if the constitutional changes required to remove gold backing for the Swiss currency are approved in a referendum in 1999.

``Gold is back down to the 12 year lows it saw in July, but it could be a case of selling the rumor and buying the fact here,'' North American Equity Services COMEX floor trader, John Geraghty said.

``The plan still has to be approved by a referendum and won't happen until 1999 anyway.''

COMEX December gold was down $7.50 an ounce at $317.20 after the first hour of trade Friday, after setting a new contract low at $315.50 early.

In the bullion market spot gold was quoted $316.60/10 an ounce, compared to the London Friday morning fix at $321.90, and the New York close Thursday at $323.40/90.

In July spot gold saw a 12 year low around $315.00.

Implied gold lease rates were higher at around 2.88 pct for one month and 2.80 pct for 12 months.

Officials of the Swiss finance ministry and the Swiss National Bank said they approved of the plan in principle, though the proposal by a panel of experts, appointed by the Swiss finance ministry and Swiss National Bank in April, still had to be discussed by the government.

The gold sale plan is part of a broader proposal for overhauling the Swiss constitution to reduce the amount of gold backing the Swiss franc, to revalue bSwiss gold reserves closer to market value, and to sell part of the revaluation surplus to fund a humanitarian fund for Holocaust victims.

Switzerland is the last developed country to insist by law on a gold backing for its currency, but the backing will be reduced from 40 pct of currency on issue to 25 pct from November 1.

Switzerland holds about 2,600 tonnes of gold and the original plan called for about 400 tonnes to be sold to finance the Holocaust victims fund.

But the new proposal would sell about 1400 tonnes in total, about half a year's global annual gold mine output, leaving Swiss gold reserves at about 1,190 tonnes.

Gold prices have fallen in the past year to 12 year lows on concern about actual and potential central bank gold sales.

The Dutch government sold 300 tonnes of gold in January this year and the Australian government sold 167 tonnes in July.

But some analysts argued that gold prices had fallen this year because of unprecedented amounts of short selling of gold by hedge funds on COMEX and in much larger OTC transactions which could total about 2,000 tonnes.

Industry consultants, Goldfields Mineral Services ( GFMS ) estimates the total of net central bank gold sales in 1996 was only 239 tonnes and the total for the past decade is only 2,134 tonnes.

In the late 1970s the U.S. and IMF between them sold 1,175 tonnes of gold over three years without disrupting a gold bullion market that was about half the size it is now, T. Hoare & Co analyst Rhona O'Connell said.

COMEX December silver was down 3.3 cents at $4.905, after seeing an early low at $$4.860.

COMEX warehouse silver stocks were unchanged in Thursday nights data at 133,901,501 ounces, after sliding to a new 12 year low earlier this week.

NYMEX January platinum was down $5.30 at $$417.60, while NYMEX December palladium was off $2.70 at $201.25.

$SOX -- semiconductor index in collapse mode, down 23 points and falling! This is over 5% for this morning alone!!!!

We've gone in to ugly mode folks...

Panda: yes,you heard me right...white stuff is falling....ditto DOW ( -73 ) ditto gold....DOOOOOH

My take on this is that the boys are pouring everthing into this to stop the flight to gold. They can't afford to have their bond market shattered, nor their $US. Therefore they must do everything possible to push gold down to try to stop this.
HK has just announced that it will sacrifice its sharemarket for its $$$.
The trouble is they can only do so much before the dam bursts.

As George has been saying gold will only go up when this gets serious.
This dam is about to burst and then gold will soar!
If the dow breaks tonight how will the rest of the world will follow on monday. Who will be long stuff at 4pm today.
Be it that in the next three trading days, stocks tank big time, then gold should be soaring within a week or two.

EB are you taking profits yet and reversing?

Of course, I mean short term trading event being LONG! Yesterdays trading range in the metals was TOOOOOOO lackluster for what was going on. What won't go up on supposed good news for it WILL go down! And then silver broke down! We know gold follows silver, don't we. Even the fine performance of the XAU couldn't move gold. But then, the XAU/HUI ratio was never the right way, and that does seem to usually work properly. The result of it all is as we now see. Wish I could have been around yesterday.

NOT TO WORRY - This is a test of real men - Besides look at the indexes now!!
The Swiss frank will go down the $$$ way ( will become worthless over time ) if they decouple it from gold. This action, if undertaken, will eventually help gold. The Swiss frank has been competing with gold for quality just because it was gold by definition.
Stay the course;time is on our side.

Fifteen minute chart..

INTC at 79 3/8 for those who care.. ( real time quote )

Hey steady I heard swiss franks taste pretty good.

Ldn gold slumps after New York weighs Swiss deal

LONDON, Oct 24 ( Reuters ) - Gold prices slumped to their lowest level in over three months on Friday afternoon as selling swept the New York markets.

Dealers said the price collapsed as soon as the New York markets opened and reacted to news that Switzerland was proposing to sell 1,400 tonnes of gold from its reserves sometime after 1999.

``It fell as soon as New York opened. They seem to be able to see things much more clearly from afar than we can from here,'' said one gold market professional.

The cash price fell to $316.50 per ounce before recovering slightly. Bullion had been indicated at $319.70 down $3.40 on Thursday's close immediately before the Comex gold futues market opened. But after the fixing the price was wobbling again.

Gold fixed at $316.65 per ounce down from $321.90 in the morning and $324.30 on Thursday afternoon.

It was gold's lowest fixing since July 9 when it registered $315.75, its lowest since December 11, 1985.

``The funds waded in, the stops were hit and that was it. It was nervous and a bit confused after failing to move on the stock market falls of earlier in the week,'' one dealer said.

Earlier today gold's flimsy grip on its role as a financial asset was questions again when advisors to the Swiss government said the country could sell 1,400 tonnes of the metal if it abandoned the gold standard.

Switzerland is the last developed country to insist on a gold backing for its currency. On November 1 the extent of the backing will be reduced from 40 percent to 25 percent.

``What this ( the Swiss proposal ) could do now is serve to keep the market in the doldrums for the next 18 months,'' said one gold market analyst.

Technically gold was now in a tough spot and could expect at best some serious volatility.

``It is now beginning to look overstretched and we may see some high volatility and corrections before it tests $314.00,'' said technical analyst Cliff Green at Trend Analysis.

He said targets would be $313.85 then $300 but the focus would be on the early 1980s lows of $275-$280,

``The only positive would be if it continually fails to break down suggesting it was basing out,'' he added.

The other precious metals were mixed. Silver was down a cent at $4.93/$4.95 and platinum and palladium were both easier at $415.00/$417.00 and $200.25/$202.25 respectively.

How likely is it that the Swiss referendum would pass?

Any Swiss on this bb?

Dow down 70 and dropping like a rock. Looks like 7600 on the dow is key support level. If we drop below 7600 next week I predict we'll stop at 6150.

Gold has just put in an exaustion gap the bottom of this dip could well be the buy.
I'm ready to buy more soon.

PUTS Galore......KA ....CHINK...... ( :-}}}}}}}}}

A. Goose -- About as likely as a chicken making it across six lanes of highway at rush hour!

Table of quotes... ( tech stuff, lots of blood being spilled.. )

Lsteve
Dow down 125 from opening high which was futures driven.
A prop only which failed.
The rest of the world is watching and this failure will be absorbed as the biggest loss of confidence.
If we close at a low today, the crash will begin in ernest next week.
IMHO

BBL.....

BCMD, I posted on this back when they had their news, yesterday after basing for a week in 7/8 area a big buy in afternoon took it up 30% on 1.85 million shares, high volume from it base this week. Today despite the gold free fall volume is about this high already at 11:30 and the price 1 1/8 ( short time, before I could get any! ) to 1 3/8. This time as opposed to its initial run there is no news as yet. But someone knows something! There may be a news release soon. How about some cheap thrills on a dark day for gold:- ) This stock is in California at or near the northern extension of the original Mother Lode. Will post an URL soon, as soon as I get done buying that is.

Our OZ SPI futres have just made a new low 75 points off its high when the dow opened.
It is now well below what it was when it fell this morning on open.
This next big wave down could well set alarm curbs off.
These selling waves should grow bigger and bigger as real selling comes in.
Panic has not yet entered the market!!!
Can the powers that be halt this.
Or will they do what HK said they would do. Support their $$$$.

( :-}}}}}}}

Gold is tanking it...dow is tanking it...can someone give me something not to be depressed about? By the way I thought it was about 0145 in Oz now....don't the Nicks ever sleep?

News release BCMD: http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/10/15/bcmd_y0023_1.html

You just have to love them. Yesterday the talking heads couldn't say the G... word. Today, they can't stop talking about they MAJOR drop in the silly element. It has to be a sea change.
If the Swiss move off the gold standard money will flee their country at a unbelieveable rate ( as steady has pointed out ) . May be the next currency to short.

If the U.S. market goes bear ( which I believe it has ) , money will move from equities. I don't believe that in a world market crisis ( which I believe we are just starting ) that foriegn countries will be able to leave their money here -- it must go home.
These two moves will drive the U.S. dollar down. The currency crisis has started and will move to emcompass the U.S. dollar. As has been said many times before on this bb, people and countries will change currency for things at some point in the downward currency sprial. First they may take corn, wheat, rice, ... then industrials commodities, but at some point the will also grab the pm's. The die is cast, the timing will not occur in a day or a week, but I believe it is underway. ( IMHO ) .

Dow down 90. Going this morning to bank for cash, then straight to coin dealer.

Hang on folks! Greenspan wants Dollar forward sales disclosure from the Asians. It looks like they are selling Dollars!

Apparently Thailand led the forward sales of the Dollar... Looks like there is trouble in happy land!

Gold bounced $1.50 off lows
Last time gold did this was 7/7/97
Some people here bought up lots of NDY AAA LHG and did extremely well. Looks like a repeat performace today

Yowzers! What the %#*@ ) is going on today! Goddam it, I need the market to stay up so I can find a decent job! It is looking really bad for the markets, especially because of those redemptions. Fund managers are selling Latin stocks to cover Asian stocks, then they will sell European stocks to cover Latin stocks, then the redemptions will hit here. Ouch. That Puetz scenerio is looking more credible now. I hope that it doesn't happen -- it will bring misery to the world for so long ...

- Organ

Don't give up the ship just yet! This could be real trouble here! If the almighty Dollar is not worth holding by the Asians... Does that mean,...., BOND SALES???????

long bond at 6.272 and the Dow is at -120... As Homer would say DOOOOOH!

I must say that THIS is the Tsunami effect I've been looking for! I see a lot of 'beach' where there was water. I think I hear that distance roaring sound. But seeing this big drop in gold IS one of the initial effects I've been looking for, and when that wave comes washing in, it WILL BE BIG, and it WILL BE FAST! And I'm talking METALS! And I'm also talking FOXHOLE!

Footsie down 122pts after being up over 100 earlier.

Dow support looks like 7726, if that goes... There's not much till 7300..

The action today does make a money market account look attractive. I think given yesterday's and today's action thus far the timid are going to be shaken out of both the paper and the metal markets leaving the fundamentalists to fight it out. Its interesting when I post to the office by email what the dow is doing and the other markets are doing its a general ho hum. The thought is it may go down temporarily but this is a buying opportunity. Humanity is interesting. Ted, I'm glad you sold some of your paper.

Paradigm shift anyone? Ford to add 1000 workers because of increased demand for vehicles.

Panda, I've often heard of support levels both in relationship to the paper market as well as to metals. What does this mean exactly? Does the support level express past experience with the market or is is there something tangible which creates a support level.

Avid Chatter

Good Point.....gold being deliberately knocked down to fool the little people into not using it as a retreat for stock meltdown worldwide

AAA, LHG and NDY....but when? Is the blood bath going to keep going like this...I mean with gold copping it too?

100 day moving average for the Dow is 7893 ( we are under that ) . The 200 day moving average is 7400. It looks ??

Now Tort, no analysis from you. Gimme a good gold joke.

Eldorado
Come and stand up here on the hill, the views great and it seems safe for now.

Good time to cost average into gold stocks and physical. I for one will be nibbling on homestake and some old gold coins. Gold might go lower but we are near the bottom. $280 gold is not out of the question. Anyone who can buy at the exact bottom is usually a liar. Cost average at these levels I believe makes sense. Your in a fairly low levels and you stand to make a lot of money if and when this bull gets going.

Sure smells like market manipulation!!!
Hard to believe the Swiss would sell
so much gold at this low price. Sounds
more like someone trying to cash in on
calls that were written. You don't think
the call writters want to lose any money!
Let's face it, you haven't got much of a
chance buying gold calls, but as more
investors join the trend of writing gold
calls that will put an end to this game.
Anyway, gold at $315 is quite a steal and
$270 is even better AND let's face it,
at these prices someone is stealing it.

Rumour from avid
boc "rumored" to be selling gold. swiss not selling but may loan
Anyone heard about BOC selling.

DELL the market orgasm looks sick sick sick.

I would suggest that if the leadership of the People's Republic of China monitor this bb, it is an excellant time to announce that you are going to back the yaun with gold. They were making preparations for it 3-4 years ago if I remember correctly. If they did it now they would become the center of the universe instantly.

Tortfeasor -- The idea behind support and resistance levels is based on the fact that a lot of buying took place at a certain level.

Therefore, if the stock or commodity goes up to a 'resistance level', it simply means that a lot of folks were left holding the bag at that price, and will sell out at that price to 'break-even'. When that selling is done ( exhausted ) , if the demand is still there, the price will go higher, quickly.

The reverse is true also. If a stock or commodity is falling in price and it hits an area where there was a lot of 'accumulation' ( buying ) , those buyers may be inclined to buy more ( maybe the buyers felt the item was a good value at that price ) , thus supporting the price at those levels ( 'a support area' ) .

The final caveat to all of this is, ( 1 ) phsychology rules! and ( 2 ) In a bear market there is no support, in a bull market there is no resistance. Did I leave enough outs? :- ) )

This gold decline, on the surface, anyway, seems like a panic final washout used by strong hands to accumulate. I would be more worried if the declines to these levels were more orderly in nature. IMHO.

All:

If there is a crash protection team they better don the gear soon. If we go another 100 or so points on the downside from here, Monday is going to be a grim day. Maybe the same pattern as today, one more buy the dip and then thunk. Looks like Al might have to cancel his speech on Tuesday.

Great gobs of liquidity are going to be provided. The economies which are in good shape ( US, UK, Europe, South America ) are going to get real hot. Our trade numbers are going to look very ugly going forward and the friction is going to heat up.

Another attempt to shake loose the fund silver looks like it has failed. If it don't go down, its going to go up. Perhaps quite quickly.

This is getting very interesting.

Nick -- You got a couple 'key' words in that sentence. "For now"! Nah, I can wait for my targetted silver price before I jump on board either metal. Else, they'll have to prove me wrong.

DJ: If your out there, is gold still within its 5% upward channel ( probably isn't, but thought I'd ask anyway ) ? How about the other PM's?

I've been using the quote.com java chart to look at some of the gold stocks. TVX seems to be at the bottom of its upward channel, as are a few of the other gold stocks and the XAU. Just curious as to what your charts will reveal.

Time to add to AU&AGportfolio.

Right now I am adding to my current holdings of CNPGF, CAU, MAENF, SSRIF, Randgold, Durban Deep, T.Tlq, KMCOF and T.SWG. Any objections???

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/y0004_z00_8.html
Friday October 24 4:38 AM EDT
Swiss experts propose selling 1,400 tonnes of gold

BERNE, Oct 24 ( Reuters ) - A group of experts appointed by the Swiss finance ministry and Swiss National Bank ( SNBZN.S ) proposed on Friday selling 1,400 tonnes of excess official gold reserves when the country leaves the gold standard entirely.

Officials said any decision on amending the constitution to allow such gold sales still had to be discussed by the government and would be subject to a popular referendum in early 1999.

At Friday morning's European market prices, selling 1,400 tonnes of gold would raise more than $14 billion and leave the SNB with 1,190 tonnes of gold in reserves. Prices dipped slightly on the news.

``According to all the experts, there should be no significant, erratic influence on gold prices from a cautious and phased sale,'' Finance Ministry director Ulrich Gygi, co-leader of the expert group, told a news conference.

The finance ministry and the central bank said they were sticking for now to their original idea of splitting off seven billion Swiss francs ( $4.75 billion ) worth of gold from official reserves.

In March they proposed selling this amount over 10 years to finance a Swiss Solidarity Foundation, a humanitarian fund to aid victims of poverty, catastrophes and human rights abuses. --


Note paragraph 2, 4 and 6.
popular referendum in early 1999.
from a cautious and phased sale
proposed selling this amount over 10 years

Sounds like well implemented scare tactics to achieve a greater end

As I was watching the PBS crap news, I was struck by the fact of how ignorant the media was/is to foreign events affecting our markets. The big question seemed to be, "How can something happening in a place on the other side of the world affect our markets?" This is ignorance and conceit of the highest level, and indicates the great danger that is in this market. Most market participants do not understand the concept of 'currency' as it exists today. Most still act like we are on a gold standard. Most seem to invest based on that concept also. There is a lot of faulty reasoning and assumptions that have been made and are being made. This will lead to disaster ( financially ) . Then 'they' ( the public ) will wonder what happened and who they should lay the fault with. My suggestion is simple, look in the damn mirror!

Good move "Steady". I for one just bought some Homestake a few minutes ago. Took on a small position and added to the GS portfolio. Got a call in to a dealer to pick up a few old $20 liberty gold. If things go lower next wek I will be adding to the portfolio... slowly . There is no hurry to jump in, but I want to be in if and when things get going. I won,t be sitting on the sidelines.

All.. IMHO, it seems the Swiss feels Asia will sell
some of thier gold this weekend.. What better way to
keep the price down with thier news.. As Cherokee
would say "not much wanpum for the gold".

Great post yesterday by G. Kahunna at 20:25..Must
underline.."Bank loans are carried as assets while
cash on hand is defined as a liability". Thks

Back from the Chiropractor ( pun intended ) and I see that gold is down...hmmmmmmmm...here it comes folks...

h M!! h YES! Cha-Ching! $$$$$$!!

O.K. That's enough! Thanks all who acknowledged. I will not clog bandwidth with gloats. The call was an easy one and my guts were telling me too.

I would like to acknowledge ONE guy who, from the word GO, has been saying that gold will reach new lows. He has warned of CB sales and MORE CB sales. He and his co-workers do this FOR A LIVING - THIS IS ALL THEY DO!! He has posted himself black and blue trying to make you guys some cash ( w/o drumming ANY biz-he made NO money from me and I made ALOT of cash off him ) . Gee...who am I?? HepCat knows him...LGB knows him...I KNOW HIM!!!! Thanks BRO!!! I'm still buying ALL the beers when we finally play that dart game...YOU THE MAN!! And I'll say this for you ( without being to childlike ) ...to all the doubters... I TOLD YOU SO!!

I was converted ( I am still a gold bug-long term ) from a bull whisher to a bull slayer. The bear rules yesterday today AND tomorrow ( monday ) . It will continue to maul the bull into submission. Germany will most likely be the next one to jump on the band-wagon. It must. The new ( the one that UK will never join ) currency is adding fuel to this fire and the fire will burn brightly for a while. Time will tell...

Nick ( Aussie ) - I will not take profits today...I will hold over the weekend and see what happens Monday. Thanks for the cheer mate and the great input.

Colleen - I would like an e-mail please. I am a study ( rookie ) of the Fibonacci and the more I learn the better it looks. eblm@utech.net Thanks in advance.

Ted - Thanks BRO!! Did you profit?? I know...I know... Anyway, your boys need a rest tonight. We'll meet again Saturday for the FINAL GAME ;- )

Cherokee ( seer ) - Wait a little while before you buy those calls...they will be cheaper yet.

MikeS - My ball is not Crystal...THEY are BRASS!! And thanks...

George - George, George, George...

away..to the BULL fight
 Humble

Speaking of paper, I can see 'possibilities' of 920 Dec S&P Monday with a further potential of even lower.

Nick ( @Aussie ) : re your 12:20. That makes more sense - the Swiss loan 1400 tons of gold. The more interesting question is why? The Swiss are not ( unline not ) part of EMU/ECU "go live", and I doubt they need to sell gold to buy oil. Their currency is already backed by gold.
Isn't interesting that gold currently goes down during financial crises, when traditionally it would go up? I think this shows what we have been suspecting all along -- that the powers that be manipulate the gold price using gold derivatives to strengthen the dollar. What is the problem with this? This kind of manipulation, as powerful is it may be, only works for a short time until whatever trade it was expires. After that, if the juggling does not keep the gold price down, one must sell real ( underline real ) gold.
I think if we are talking of 1400 tonnes of gold leans from Switzerland, things are getting desperate. Only a serious financial crisis on the horizons would get the Swiss to even loan this much gold.

Ya bunch'a sissie paper ninnies are dog meat. We are in control. Buy bonds. NOW! That's an order. Repeat after me, "I will buy bonds. I will buy bonds...". You will do as you are told to do. No whinning and NO ALTERNATIVES! We own the alternatives, goldbuggers. We are in control. There will be no dissent. The only REAL money is paper. Paper, paper, paper. Now, line up for your share. Asia-boy, back in line! You will NOT sell US Bonds. NoNoNo! ( Children! What can you do with them, eh? ) We control the horizontal. We control the verti... ( sssssssszzzzzitttt ) .

"..if this were a real emergency you would be notified to contact your local..." ONLY A TEST. ONLY A TEST. ONLY A TEST. ONLY A TEST. ONLY A TEST.

And now back to your program.

'.. a sudden jolt. But after a few minutes everything was back to normal.." And the band played on...... glug, glug, glug.

Earl,, how about posting some of your charts?

Hey steady I've owned CAU since 1993. What's up with it. Not breaking out even though things seem to be improving fundamentally. Why do you like it? I'm just curious. McDonald project gives them almost 10 million in proven and probable reserves. Plus their other prospects.

Check out the stats for the past 5 days on Internet traffic through
a US Server on the Net. Look at what took place on the 23rd October.
Hong Kong in overdrive!! Virtual meltdown on the net for an hour or so.
http://www.mfsdatanet.com/MAE/east.giga.overlay.html

Depressed - AAA, NDY, LHG
When the storm surge eases.
All stocks will be revalued heaps in a sharp correction.
A slow downtrend may not hurt gold stocks much, providing gold rallies back up.
If stocks tanked hard and gold bolted $20, I think that the gold stocks will tank bad with the rest.

Eldo this is like tickling trout, the patience, the perseverence, the quick thrust of the hand to flick your prize up onto the bank.
And there she lies glistening, gleaming, flapping and protesting, waiting for you to have your way.

Ker....splash

Oh yeah, almost forgot...

Gold down 840 or a couple of big juicy steaks. And I will eat steak 2-nite...

away...to the market


How DOES EB turn his exclamation marks upside down?

Al: Since the company is getting 100% interest in McDonald project and their Briggs is running over 75k oz, this is a great investment . Their forward selling is very minimal, just to cover the loans to finance Briggs. Nothing wrong with the company, great fundamentals. Wait and you will be grreatly rewarded. I talk to their people here in Denver periodically and keep up with developments. It is a $8-$10 stock once gold moves. Trust me.

Nick -- As you say, 'patience'. Right now, we ain't 'tickling' the fish. It is tickling us, trying to get the rest of us to fall in the pond and get 'wet', even as the water is still draining out.

D.A. - You have excellent insight into what's happening. If AG brings in the crash protection team, is he going to buy stocks/bonds with both hands, using what's left in Fort Knox? Are the Europeans who want the dollar strong for the smooth entry of the ECU, and the Swiss, who want world stability, going to help? How much longer can this gold "selling" last? Do they just stop when that last ounce of gold is loaned out?

Eldorado

With respect to things happining fast. You're right about that, but as we can all see it can happen in all directions.

The move in gold and all stocks today is a good example.. If a trade is on the wrong side a move, it's too late to extract your self in a sane manner and you get hammered.

One thing I will grant, is that the most unlikly event ( unreasonalble ) is for gold to gap up and keep moving up. As this is the case no one has prepared for it. I'm hopping that if such an event happens I'll get "nicked" for only 10% of my short trading gains.

Can you give me a treat today?? Perhaps a ten minute gold chart of todays action? If you could be so kind?? Pretty Please??

away...to await the treats ( :-$ ) )


Eldo, You sound down on gold. You think it's going alot lower? Is this not a good time to add to long term positions in owning shares and physical? I don't play commodities so I'm not interested in daily fluctuations.

I'm expecting another move to be happening shortly. A technical kneejerk move.

All: Has everyone noticed that gold was hit hard, but not silver. We don't have that silver confirmation yet.
Is this the last gasp? Are we now at a ten year low in gold? Can't remember!

Eldo
I'm damn patient sometimes, somtimes I'm just a mug!
But I hope I don't have to wait till $285.
But then If'n I have to wait till then.
It I'll be worth it to see the smile on EB's dial.

Friday October 24 12:07 PM EDT
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/y0023_z00_26.html
NY precious metals steady at lower levels midday

NEW YORK, Oct 24 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were steady at lower levels midday Friday, after a high volume tumble in gold prices, on news of a Swiss proposal to sell 1,400 tonnes of gold, if the constitutional changes required are approved in a referendum in 1999.

``It's true any Swiss sale still has to be approved and wil not occur until 1999, but producers are not going to wait for the sale to occur, but will start locking in their hedges now,'' Hudson River Futures COMEX floor trader, Carlos Perez-Santalla said.

``In the short term though we might get a bounce if locals need to cover their shorts by the end of the day, with downside targets at the lows seen in July around $315.00 now reached,'' he said.

``Longer term though new lows could be seen with $285.00 the target,'' he said.

COMEX December gold was down $8.30 an ounce at $316.40 midday, after setting a new contract low at $315.50 early.

In the bullion market spot gold was quoted $315.50/00 an ounce, compared to the London Friday afternoon fix at $316.65, the lowest fix since $315.75 was seen on July 9. The July 9 fix was the lowest since December 11, 1985. In New York Thursday spot gold ended quoted $323.40/90.

Implied gold lease rates rose futher during the session Friday to around 3.30 pct for one month, from 2.47 pct Thursday, and to around 2.75 pct for 12 months.

Earlier Friday, officials of the Swiss finance ministry and the Swiss National Bank said they approved of a plan in principle, recommended by a panel of experts, to sell up to 1,400 tonnes of Swiss gold reserves.

Since March this year, the Swiss have debated a broad plan to overhauling their constitution to reduce the amount of gold backing the Swiss franc, to revalue Swiss gold reserves closer to market value, and to sell part of the revaluation surplus to fund a humanitarian fund for Holocaust victims.

Switzerland is the last developed country to insist by law on a gold backing for its currency, but the backing will be reduced from 40 pct of currency on issue to 25 pct.

Switzerland holds about 2,600 tonnes of gold and the original plan called for about 400 tonnes to be sold to finance the Holocaust victims fund.

But the new proposal would sell about 1400 tonnes in total, about half a year's global annual gold mine output, leaving Swiss gold reserves at about 1,190 tonnes.

Gold prices have fallen in the past year to 12 year lows on concern about actual and potential central bank gold sales.

The Dutch government sold 300 tonnes of gold in January this year and the Australian government sold 167 tonnes in July.

But some analysts argued that gold prices had fallen this year largely because of unprecedented amounts of short selling of gold by hedge funds taking advantage of concern about actual and potential central bank gold sales. The amoutn of fund shosrt selling on COMEX and in much larger OTC transactions could total about 2,000 tonnes, some analysts believe..

As central banks are both sellers and buyers of gold, industry consultants, Goldfields Mineral Services ( GFMS ) , estimates the total of net central bank gold sales in 1996 was only 239 tonnes, and the total for the past decade was only 2,134 tonnes.

In the late 1970s the U.S. and IMF between them sold 1,175 tonnes of gold over three years without disrupting a gold bullion market that was about half the size it is now, T. Hoare & Co analyst Rhona O'Connell said.

COMEX December silver was down 0.8 cent at $4.930, after seeing an early low at $$4.860.

COMEX warehouse silver stocks were unchanged in Thursday nights data at 133,901,501 ounces, after sliding to a new 12 year low earlier this week.

NYMEX January platinum was down $6.60 at $416.30, while NYMEX December palladium was off $1.70 at $202.25.

Lease rates for platinum group metals were little changed around 20 pct, PGM dealers said.

``Platinum looks to be down in line with gold, but industrial demand for palladium is providing some support and the monthly consignment of Russian metal to Japan may not have arrived yet as the Japanese were buyers in Europe this week,'' one U.S. refining house source said.




ING Barings cuts Brazil in LatAm stock portfolio
He added, ``The Asia downturn has now become too ugly to ignore,'' and ``U.S. Fed funds have a higher probability of a one-off rise.''
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/ele_eni_e_1.html

U.S. stocks to grow in 1998 despite Asia - Cohen
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/z0000_26.html

Thanks steady. You've confirmed my feeings about Canyon. But I have to convince the wife to buy more. It's going to be tough.

Goldfinger -- ONLY for the very short term! Once this move is over I'll be getting VERY long! But I really DO want to first see silver drop as I've stated. It would worry me a bit unless that first happens.

Ma Kitco frens

Ah respectfully remind you zat the Wizards predicted zat zee gold would
fall to 305 or lowair. Zeze guys are nevair wrong. Ah have learned zair
secrets. Zey use a zeeng called zee Dreaded Waves of Monsieur Elliot !!
Zey tell me we are now in zee wave five down by dam!!! Oh mah beautiful
gold. Oh No!!

EB -- No need for a chart, Just drop a plumb line. The angle may be off a little, but the direction is correct.

JTF --I think someone said 12 year lows, but who's counting.

Comeon silver! Drop like a rock and confirm my 'suspicions'! Let's get the awamp drained and go about picking up the fish!

Sorry to ruin a great call by EB with some housekeeping duties,
but I just have to acknowledge Ted and of course George S Cole
for their senseless and misguided attacks on me yesterday.

EB - Fantastic call. You put it down for everyone to
see and act on at least one week in advance. Triffic,
really triffic.

Ted and George S. Cole - It is people like you that are
making it increasingly difficult for people like me to
post at this site in a civil fashion. Ted, I don't care
if you have to belittle me in order to try to make some sense
out of your own despondent, shallow life. As I've said
before, the dumbing-down process of me only makes your
own side all the more suspect, because I am not even trying.
The fact that I continue to be more correct than 85%
of the people who have me repeatedly kicked off of this site
is answer enough to the question: "Is it important
from an investment standpoin to have dumb, retarded, ignorant
perverted, sluttish, peon Hepcat on this site? That is,
from the sense of allowing people the opportunity to
make money or not lose money, is it necessary to provide
a counterbalance and also a more correct view to the
like of George S. Cole?"

George - We're the lows in when you said the lows were in?
I take your silence as a tacit acknowledgement of who should
be preeminent at this site and who should be applying for
the servant's job at Ted's trailer park.

Global risk appetite shrinks amid Asia turmoil ********
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/y0004_z00_15.html

COMEX copper sinks at midday on Asian doldrums http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/y0021_y00_9.html

US Bond yields likely to trade in range -Cohen
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/z0000_z00_19.html

U.S. corporate debt mkt calms, issues to taper off
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/y0032_z00_5.html

IMM currency futures mixed early, yen recovers
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/z0000_z00_18.html

Fed adds reserves via six-day system repurchases
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/z0000_z00_16.html

Ldn gold slumps after New York weighs Swiss deal
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/z0000_21.html

Dow rally fizzles, chipmakers & gold stocks slide
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/amat_x000_1.html

U.S. mortgage market softer as Hong Kong calms
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/z0000_z00_15.html

Just bought a call option. I can't believe I have faith in something that is going through open heart massage while on the surgery table.
Maybe it's because I deaf and can't hear the fat lady singing.

Gold & Silver ( TSE )
http://canoe.quote.com/fq/canoe/industrygroup?group=tse_gold

EB
To each of us we have our day ( :-}}}}

Swiss gold sales/loans indicate only one of two explanations: either they have convinced themselves that they are better off owning something other than gold ( such as T-Bills, a la Australian rational ) *OR* the 'fit has really hit the shan'.

This is only a news item. It is not a reality yet. This could not possibly leverage the market by itself. There must also be an accompanying dump of gold by *someone* to depress the markets. This is a coordinated psychological operation intended to keep the seams of this boat from bursting assunder. My question is "What worse thing could the CB's try to avoid in using a bad thing to accomplish it?" There must be a reward to this risk/cost. Is it keeping the systems from completely collapsing in total? When reasonable people do rash things it is usually because of even worse possibilities.

The Swiss are not stupid and they are not ignorant of their role. This anouncement has cost them nothing in real terms. They have sold no gold and have no authority to do so until their people decide. That decision is two years away at the least. The Swiss are the news item. The gold market dumping operation is the frontal assault intended to keep people from fleeing the paper system altogether. If they play it correctly they may be able to preserve the current system with just a "crash" and call it history while they rebuild. If not, we go back to the 1800's economic environment where no one can trust anyone else unless they trade the physical stuff. Such a dramatic collapse would so shrink the world economy and endanger the lives of a third of the people who now exist on the edge of subsistance living. I feel that the "powers" have a responsibility to caretake this situation and know very well what the possibilities are. One indication is the extremes to which they are willing to provide a medicine ( as a clue to what extremes they feel the disease could hurt us all.

Next stop is "Liquidity Central". Back to you, Sam.

NITROUS OXIDE, anyone ??

Allen: Nice post Allen. I agree that the table stakes have risen to a dramatic level. I also think the world markets a about to dive. Currency issues are definitely a major concern of the world governments. Cracks are showing and the recent acitons including gold are signs of how serious the situation really is.

Boy am I tired of hearing the constant pratter about how bad gold is doing because the Swiss may sell gold in the future.

JTF:

There is no way to determine just how much CB's care about gold. The timing of their selling announcements or musings thereof, sure do lead one to believe that there is some coordinated game afoot. If there is a concerted effort, the aim must be to keep bonds attractive. I keep going back to one of the Fed's working papers which makes the point that if one can get inflationary expectations to decline then inflation itself will in actuality be lower. Since many economists have historically used gold as an inflation forecasting tool, at least this group can be fooled into believing. I am amazed at the comments coming from 'respected' economists how the price of gold is 'telling' us that inflation will not be a problem. There was an article in the WSJ a few months back by Wayne Angell arguing for interest rate cuts because the price of gold was falling. Was this in complete ignorance, part of the 'game', or just someone wedded to an idea and too foolish to see what was happening.

As I have espoused here for quite some time, the real threat to the whole expanding paper game will come from inflation. Inflation that is so real that no bondholder will be able to ignore it. Perhaps this is why there is a concerted effort to keep gold in its place. Being such a visible gauge of inflation, it would be hard to explain away $600 gold. No one really cares about $3.50 natural gas, or $200 palladium, or any other commodity that goes up. Even if silver goes skyrocketing it will be put off as a 'speculative' fever. What I find remarkable is the press which loves to go investigating most anything has not made any effort to bring the inflation story to the forefront. I suppose that as long as people have jobs and Wall St. is jumping no one really cares to upset the apple cart.

We may well find ourselves with a most bizarre market where gold remains in the doldrums and everything else goes soaring. Even today with gold down $8.00 the GSCI is right at a new recovery high around the 211 mark. This is an index which was as low as 182 just a few months back. Since this index measures commodity prices in a production weighted manner it is the closest measure of commodity induced inflation. It is weighted very strongly in the energy sector because that is the sector which accounts for the greatest dollar volume of commodity consumption.

An aside on the inflation front, I read an article yesterday which detailed office space prices and raw agricultural land prices. Both are up better than 10% yoy. If the answer to the Asian market crisis is more liquidity ( lower interest rates ) how can these prices do anything but accelerate?

Perhaps soon we will see the Rubin CPI. It will be 50% DRAM prices and 50% gold. Maybe they can find some more suckers to buy 'inflation' indexed bonds.

This gold stuff gives new meaning to the phrase 'Don't fight the Fed'.

Panda - This is true...

Crazy - Throwing good money at BAD...w/w...

Nick - Thanks Bro! Gettin' late?? Or early?? 3:30a.m. You night owl you.

HepCat - Thanks. I like your tone...it suits you better.

Depressed - Don't be. Join the Trend. It is your friend. btw... Alt 173 (  ) ... h M!

away...to the grind


Hepcat -- GREAT call on gold! Even if the timing is a day or even two off. Sometime, you'll have to explain how you did it. If this continues, it'll beat my downside possibilities for the month where I said about 315 on the Dec contract. GOT to drink some beer with you!

I agree with your premise and logical conclusion that there is more supply of gold than demand. Your argument is postulated on an assumption that all gold above ground is available to supply new industrial or financial demand. This is theoretically true but empirically untested. The existing supply of investment gold consists of supply that is not 'remanufacturered' but held in securities "market" exchange form such as certified quality bars or certificates against marketable gold.

The CBs hold about 30,000 tonnes of gold ( US has about 8,000 ) and we see how CB sale rumours have discounted the market price of gold in the absence of any real demand or supply transaction. ( The latest Swiss proposal to reduce the gold standard for the SF to 25% from 40% in 1999 is proof positive of my claim. )

Private bullion banks also probably hold a lions share of the CB supply.

I beleive that gold jewellry retains more than intrinsic 'gold' value as it also represents the cost of producing an artifact and the 'status' or emotional, sometimes sentimental value attributed to owning jewellry.

I agree that in times of trouble that jewellry may be used as collateral at a pawn shop or sold but this - even in the midst of an Asian currency crisis - has not materialized. How do I know this ? Easy, the gold short spin would have seeded the market with evidence that hoards of Asians are lining up to sell gold - if it could be substantiated.

The most significant factor in the current gold slump can be attributed to the argument that you present - lack of investment demand. I would qualify this by adding..."in sufficient quantity from from private non-professional investors". Why ? IMHO, the retail investment communtiy has stayed away from gold in favor of stocks while the professional gold long side had no good reason to risk a price war with the deep pockets leading the formidable professional short play.

An equally significant factor in the slump of gold prices is that there is an unprecendented short position that has derived significant profit simply by exploiting CB gold sales - which are not historically unprecedented - and rumours of CB gold sales. This short position is estimated at 2,000 tonnes of gold - again, historically unprecendented.

The Hunt brothers tried to corner silver 18 years ago and the market blew-up after the Federal Trade Commission forced the Hunts to unwind the constraint of trade strategy that forced silver to about $50 ( ? ) .

We have unprecedented management of gold price by a few well financed shorts who - in all probability - act in collusion to manipulate the gold market to sell high and buy low.

It is this '800-pound gorilla' that George Milling-Stanley, WGC, refers to - more than any one particular factor - that has pinned the gold market down and now holds the enitre long gold investment community ( physical and gold stocks ) at ransom.

The long gold community will need to break the managed price system in the global gold market before an equalibrium price - that is a price that obtains in a "free market" of physical demand and supply - may be established.

Do you believe that the world gold market exhibits the characteristics of a "free market" ?

Professional opinion indicates that 90% of the gold short position is dealt on the OTC away from common view. This is about 1,800 tonnes of gold short - COMEX reports about 200 short tonnes.

Do you believe that we have transparency in the world gold market ?

It is MHO that if transparency is established in the gold market - perhaps after the price collapses well below $300 and most gold miners close shop - we will see that gold price would tend to its commodity value in a 'fre market' environment.

I believe that - precluding a massive re-sale of existing jewellry stocks or "abnormal" CB gold dumps - that the commodity price of gold would tend to cover the total cost of mining plus a premium for profits, taxes, and suitable return on sharholder equity.

Right now we have average global total cost of production of about $280 and contrary to 'belief' of some there is no magic formula to discover economic gold in sufficient quanitites - dirt miners notwithstanding.

I had proposed in January that the commodity price of gold is the 'cake' and the monetary price premium represents the 'icing'. If the gold market re-structures itself to re-discover its commodity price equalibrium, I expect that the gold shorts will strategically cover and find other markets to raid.

This, in essence, is the characteristic of modern finance: selected well-financed speculators attack weak market fundamentals and slaughter the weakest investors - whether its a Soros attacking Sterling or Soros and Goldsmith trading-up gold in 1993 or other pro fund combining efforts to drive the price of gold down - its the sign of the times.

I don't think this is a conspiracy theory as the information on the gold short position and its historic weighting is in the public domain.

Your advice is kindly appreciated.

Cheers

In light of the swiss announcement. Consider what would happen if all CB sold their gold: a ) price would drop. b ) mines would close down c ) more people may buy gold jewelery at cheaper prices . OK now what would happen to currencies ? They would be backed by the reputation of the gov't that issued them. Just like a business, the gov't financial situation would have to be assesed, juts like when a corporation issues debentures or notes payable. If the gov't has a lot of debt, thats bad, but if it has a strong tax base and a good economy to bring in taxes, thats good. So if there was no gold to back anything, as I remember there was a conversation here a while back on exactly how much gold backed the US Dollar, then currencies would be valued against each other, like the US Dollar vrs the Yen or Canadian Dollar, etcetera. Then the nation with the strongest 'balance sheet' would in effect become a currency of gold. I think most western countries run pretty high defecits and have large amounts of debt, but they don't see it as so much of a problem, until recently, when balancing the budget by x number of years became a priority. I don't think we will see high inflation either because people are not spending freely, and I don't think that menatlity will ever come back. We live in a 'value' society, value investing, category killer stores, everyday low proces, etcetera. It seems price is most important today. I see what Warren Buffet was getting at when he bought those zero cupon bonds. He wants to lock in a decent rate of return, cause there's nowhere else to go. He does'nt like gold, too strange for him. If all CBs sell their gold and the metal is just effected by supply and demand from actual uses, it would give a better picture of what the stuff is worth.. By hoarding gold for so long a huge surplus has been built up. For what ?, OK sure, we all know why gold is such a great element, but why not palladium, rhodium, silver, platinum or francium ( the rarest element ) . I think gold was chosen because it's pretty for jewelery and can be 'shown off'. I may be turnning bearish on gold at the wrong time, but something only has worth if somebody wants it. There maybe no place for gold in the brave new world.

Be it that 'stuff' has to purge 30% - 40% to get to back to true value
We are talking about 2 - 5 trillion of fiat paper being wiped clean.
US Feds hold 35,000 tons of gold = $400 billion
Swiss sell off 14,000 tons of gold = $15 billion

If all that gold was sold next week it still would only add up to a small percentage of what they're about to loose.
And if they bring down the derivatives markets, all that gold will add up to a drop in a bucket.
Gold now plunging again.

Where do we draw the line on the gold chart now? It seemed to be moving up nicely....I am not only depressed..actually stunned at this aberration. How long before we can get a new chart to look like it might go up? ( Does EB really have a smiley face on his keyboard as well as upside down exclamation marks and acute accents? )

Tsunami beach going further and further out!

Comeon you stupid silver! Get your butt down there where you belong momentarily!

EB
why this friday? - you have a little canary upon your shoulder.

Oh! to be hedged three ways........
Like fishing under the full moon...........

Eldo - This is a strange juxtaposition. Eldo and the cat on
the same side of something. Kitco is just asking for a crash
if this continues. Thanks, but the day belongs to EB.
Close doesn't count in making calls, and off by 24 hours
is the same as off 24 years when everything gets recorded
in the big book. Plus, my 8300 got kind of Hang Senged,
and I am less sure of whether we will hit that level within
the next two weeks or two months given today's action.
Again, I apologize to the Wichita Lineman and NJ for
really going overboard on my assaults when they said
we wouldn't see it in a month. They were right, and
I was wrong in thinking we would take out 8300 again
well before we would see $310 gold.

BREAKING NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA
25th October 1.57 am Perth time

US Traders unprepared for market aftershocks
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/market/markets2.html

China flushes $130 BILLION to stop the panic
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971025/pageone/pageone1.html

Market Mayhem - Korea teetering on the edge
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971025/business/business1.html

CURRENCY CRISIS - Shockwaves from the North, How the Polo club got it wrong
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/features/features/971025/features1.html

The troubles in Asia - Editorial ( Sydney Morning Herald 25th October )
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971025/columns/columns1.html

Aussie Super ( 401k ) funds slash their exposure to Asia
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971025/business/business4.html

Korea now the concern
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971025/business/business6.html

Shockwave: Asian meltdown spreads
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/market/markets3.html

BHP ( the not so Big Australian ) a possible takeover target ( HOT NEWS )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/invest/invest7.html

Asia Ignites - "Huge deflationary force for the world economy"
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/perspective/perspective1.html

Asia strife hits Aussie Company Lend Lease
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/property/property1.html

Hong Kong pulls out of free fall ( for how long??? )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/world/world1.html

It's all eyes on Korea ( By Federal Government )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/news/news1.html

Central Banks blamed for fueling speculation ( who else?? )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/world/world2.html

STEVE'S COMMENT: DEFLATION IS IN. Bonds are looking good
short term, but will they last the distance??? Please forward your views
to me..

Hepcat -- Just what did happen to that DOW call anyway? How could your long term projections on the gold work so well and your system didn't cut it on the DOW?

Is it possible that the proposed Swiss sale is based on their perception of a major deflation coming on? I think not, as gold has always held well in both inflationary and deflationary scenarios.
Paper currency is just a governmental promise and no one knows this better than the freedom loving Swiss and those who control us.
My take is that the Swiss have for some time been badgered as being the antichrist by the "REAL ANTICHRIST" and can no longer take the pressure.

Comeon you stupid, stupid silver! Don't you know you don't have to hold gold up anymore? Ain't you got no eyes? Get DOWN there where you belong! Being only ten down or so doesn't cut it! You've GOT to do better than that! Comeon! DRAIN the swamp!

Standard response to Eldo and everyone else except Ted - Got
some bad information, and of course it's hard to know everything
that might transpire in a month. Greenspan kind of derailed
things with his market-shaking comments two weeks ago.

Standard response to Ted - Duhhhh, I don't know. Even a pig
finds a blind akorn 8 or 9 times in a row sometimes, or however
that frase is 'apposed to go.

Gold US$310 & falling like a rock

All:

Try as I might I just couldn't take it anymore. Had to go out and sell some S&P's. I just can't believe that there won't be just that teensy, weensy bit of fear going into the weekend. The put call ratios at the bottom today were not nearly panicy enough. I hate being short these damn things but I must. 972 here we come. Then down. I feel like that guy sysiphus, always trying to push that boulder.

Hepcat got tangled up by the SEA situation and was compensated by the Swiss surprise, IMHO, that is.
Pre-DICK-er's are always in danger of losing their MEMBER-ship.

What I do not quite understand is why hasn't there been an investigation into the trading practices of the gold market ? I can understand that goct trading commissions would back off this hot potatoe but what excuse has the gold mining industry or its agent, WGC, in not proposing an investigation in trading price management ?

We certainly live in exciting financial times.

Cheers.

Eldo
how long is your bungee cord......
For this wave you need a 40' board, skill and verve.
Tie the knots slowly and carefully - no granny knots allowed, only double sheep-shanks with a quick release woven in.

Reminds me of the time when our fleet of trawlers were steaming off to begin the prawn season. We were based in Brisbane and had to steam up to the Gulf, a trip of about 1200 nautical miles. We had got half way up the coast when a cyclone formed offshore, to the NE of us by about 500m.
We had two choises - turn back or full tit ahead and try and sneak thru on the inside. We all bolted north, 8 boats in all, doing about 9kts.
When sneaking past Magnetic Is. in the middle of the night, with the eye about 200m NE of us, and the seas starting to build up and the foam starting to curl off the waves.
Lashed into the wheelchair, lights out, music blaring, peace pipe glowing, punching always north.
Suddenly out of the VHF radio, set on ch16 for nights like this,
Blares "MAYDAY, MAYDAY, MAYDAY"
" All vessels within a 50 mile radius of lat 18sth, long 146east to maintain a constant watch for a floating TENNIS COURT. This floating tennis court has just broken free from the floating motel anchored at Henly reef"
Note - Repeat three times

Unbelievable. I couldn't believe it. I spent the rest of the night looking and looking for my first floating tennis court. But I wasn't that lucky.
Not that many were.
Two days following and it was found washed up on a beach, and we were steaming through Torres straits and heading south towards the prawning grounds.
Might I add, that was one of the best fishing seasons I've ever had.
50 tons of banana prawns in the first ten days with a further 48 to follow over the next 8 weeks.
Never cracked the 100 ton in a season.

Ever seen a ton of prawns???
Great for the BBQ

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/z0000_z00_23.html
Friday October 24 1:28 PM EDT

Greenspan ends address, stresses power of market

WASHINGTON, Oct 24 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan ended his address to the National Italian-American Foundation on Friday.

In the speech, he said history had demonstrated the strength of market economies.

``The experience of the last half century clearly attests to how far the power of the idea of market freedom can carry,'' he said.

Doin a little scrolling and see my "fan club" is back---right on!!..Hep: I love you man....I really do!!....Tort: so am I!! strange day .....@ my trailer ( HAHAHAHAHA ) ---ya got me rockin+rollin or is it something else ( ? ) ---CNBC muted....head phones on ( Koss ..of course ) musac blarin...EB: is that good enuf,I told em I love em??

Jack - Again, I don't care how you explain me away at
Kitco in order to preserve your own worldview and not
risk upsetting your hobbyhorse. If the Swiss announcement
was lucky, then once again I was smiled on by the fates.
Someone who announced the day before an announcement the exact
country that was going to announce gold sales, lucky or
not, would be someone I would want to have on this site,
not have kicked off. It isn't exactly a secret that
CB's are selling gold, and it doesn't take a tree
surgeon to see eight days of bleeding as a portent
to something big happening. Of course, I made the
prediction one month ago, so, gosh, how would something
like $310 happen if not for luck? Glenn is down
there on the floor, why don't you ask him for his
prediction if you'd rather have skill than luck
on this site?

Nick -- If I'm right, the bottom of this move should occur in conjunction with silvers move to ( I believe ) to sub 4.70 in the Dec contract. Maybe, and JUST maybe, to 4.60. Then, you can break out the surf boards I think!

Da articala she no say da roOMA she was empty.

Senior U.S. FCC official set to leave agency
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/y0032_z00_6.html

Forbes finds God in quest for presidency
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/y0026_z00_1.html

Greenspan says debate on New Age economy is open
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/z0000_z00_21.html

US OPTIONS FOCUS/No big put buying could be a sign
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/z0000_z00_20.html
``The futures should find some support around 936,'' he said in an intraday report. ``If they don't, kiss it goodbye.''

STEVE'S COMMENT: DEFLATION IS IN. Bonds are looking good
short term, but will they last the distance??? Please forward your views
to me..

Deflation causes wages to fall, prices to fall and resultantly, tax revenues on same to fall. At the same time unemployment insurance kicks in while government losses on government originated or insured loan defaults increases. How does government pay the interest on its bonds in those circumstances?

Freefall........ 310.
This Swiss crap will overhang this market fot the next 2 years, short of a russian suitcase bomb going off. Nowhere to go but down.
I suspect that within the 2 years, other CB's will be jostling to sell off a few hundred tonnes more.
As I said early this year, mines will be closing.
Now, some Gold minning companies will be shutting down.
I would not want to be a miner......

Not that it matters, but when is EBN going to fix the sign on the metals prices! Enough of this Orwellian joke!

Well, I guess I am one cooked goose. Ouch! I guess I will start moving out of Switzerland next week, one need to park there anymore - maybe New Zealand. The CB power is awesome. Ouch! Stock market will continue to fall though.

Eldo
Do you do dollar averaging or wait in the cue till the end of the day
Is the dow ready yet to sell off for the nervous weekend longs

Allen, Gold announcement by the Swiss is a desparate attempt to try to help stabalize paper financial markets. I agree with your analysis. All these little tricks by the Central Banks work until one day they won't work. We are in a world wide deflation caused by over production. About the only thing the Central Banks can do now is to forgive credit card loans or give away money. The United States has been pressuring the Swiss to sell gold for the past few years. I'll believe that they make the sale when I see it; I don't think that the Swiss people will allow the Swiss government to sell gold. Things must be in a real mess for the Central Governments to attempt this downgrading of gold. The longer this goes on the worse will be the eventual correction in the world financial markets.

Wichita Lineman, ok, so you don't want my brilliant analysis and the fruits of the depths to which my mind will plumb to ferret out market truths and financial justice. OK, I can live with that. Here's the top ten reasons that OJ is moving to Florida.

10. He's fed up with Hollywood's declining moral values
9. New job heading: Bruno Magli's Gator-Skin shoe division
8. Hoping to "Kill" a few dozen Margaritas
7. Punishment for wrongful death in Dade County: $15 fine and a
written apology
6. Hopes someday to join a retirement community for elderly
psychopaths
5. Offer from Burt Reynolds dinner theater to star with Kato
Kaelin in "The odd couple"
4. Planning to hunt down those snotty little punks from MTV's
"Real World" in Miami
3. Florida golf courses less strict about the "no murderers"
rule *
2. One in a million chance that he can get work promoting
fresh-squeezed Florida "OJ"
1. He's guilty... Of loving Shuffleboard

Dollar averaging
Oh My!!!

He must devalue the dollar or the game is over for the US, they will be at CHINA's mercy in five years.

Nick -- One more thing. I have NO idea where gold where be at that point IF/when silver hits those targets. Especially since it crashed my charts on this last leg down. Will it not go down anymore? 5 bucks more? At this point, I do not know. Anybody got any numbers?

Round and round and round she goes...
Where she stops no body knows.
( but some seem guesstimate more reliably than others )
FWIW Berne is more or less: bear

Didn't take long for the announcement change anticipated yesterday at 19:00 to hit the presses.

GOLD WILL APPRECIATE AFTER US FINANCIAL MARKETS COLLAPSE!!!

Time for a Reprise ( to the tune of Oh Lord, It's Hard to Be Humble ) :

Oh Lord, it's hard to be a goldbug,
When you're losing in every way,
I can't bear to look at the gold price,
It sinks ever lower each day;
I love gold, so I bought gold,
I must have been out of my head -
Oh, why didn't I
Just go and buy
GM, Coke and Intel instead?

Gold down 16.10 on the CNBC screen---bloodbath! ---EB: you some ifluential dude!! Dow ain't lookin too healthy either ( we @ 8300 yet... ) Tort: good one....on the juice...Time for ocean walk....and heavy contemplation....

I guess the Swiss in their infinite knowledge will sell all the Jewish/Nazi Gold, do you think it added up to 1400 tons of tooth fillings. These bankers will do anything to relieve their guilty consciences, won't they, also with the Jewish Defence League breathing down their necks it would be best unload or at least dispose of this blood stain horde. Come to think about it the Rothchild's lived in France during the Second WW and their Jews, maybe the insider Jews are forcing
this sell?? Not all Jewish people are involved only a choosen few!! Is AG, RR or any of the other FRB Jews??

For now it's finest hour, the financial markets are undergoing a collapse like we have never seen in the western world...the chinese have.
When it all stops there will be only GOLD, no money, no currency traders living off others labour ...a more efficeint system. Inefficient system last only so long and then a new better one is established.
The Swiss will not sell their gold, they have been paid ( probably in gold ) to say that they will. WORDS are CHEAP..GOLD is NOT

During the 1929 deflation everything went down and gold went........

Nick -- I don't do stocks. I do futures. But yeah, usually I get a big toe wet before I dive in. Also like to time some of these events Juuuuust riiiiight! Makes it more fun and profitable. As for the DOW, I think it is in tanking mode for at least one more day. Crazy paper can fool you though. Best to day trade that crap! I think that only with expendable options might you want to hold that stuff over the weekend.

Eldo
I'm buying long term out of the monies - with patience 8mths and cheap
I'm watching SIZ7, GCZ7 and dow on 1 min and you can see and feel the fear.
That last little plunge on the dow , they sent SI down and gold up a tad.
The rapidity of the plunge speaks volumes and I think that the next move could be serious down into close.
SI nearly there
Check out the prem, tick
The next selling wave down on the dow is going to cost an awfull lot of precious and when do they capitulate. If'n they can't stop this behemoth tanking this arvo, Monday the rest of the globe will finnish it off.
In which case the will be peeing in the wind to waste more precious.
IMHO

The XAU Gold and Silver Index just closed the gap on the daily chart which was at 98. We still have one more gap to close on the daily XAU chart at around 95.

Swiss proposed to sell, they haven't actually sold yet; therefore who is selling and whois buying today. What was the gold volumne today. CNBC "Gold smells deflation"

In our city we have 2.4% unemployment and we have more home for sale than last year.
With home starts up there are going to be a lot of builders in trouble which will drag their banks down with them.

FLASH CNBC
"Gold being sold to cover margin calls"

Stocks can not take advantage of Gold down and Bonds up they are scared.

SGI monday layoffs, potential buyers being mentioned.
They are rethinking "New Age Thinking"

Every thing is down. How is CheeseCake doing? Sarah Lee earnings up and a 600lb cake for Hillary. SORRY just depressed, it is going to be a long weekend!

My previous comment was not to ridicule or speak down to the Jewish people it is only enlighten that greed and secret combinations are
running rampant in nationalities, creed and cultures. No one is immuned
to selfish greed!!

Looks like the cowboys came in at 12 o'clock high noon and skeedaddled the vermints away. For now that is. China and Korea are next. This is just a test. If this had been an actual emergency you would have been directed to tune to your local station for news and offical information. Again this was only a test. Now back to our original programming ...

This thing about Swiss selling gold is only a REPORT about the
possibility to sell 1400 Tonnes of SNB gold.
This will have to be aproved by many parties.
A lot of Swiss don`t like this idea! There will also be a referendum
befor,that is unlikly to pass at current time.
Even if it would pass, it would take at least 2 years to do the
first selling...

I will throw in a big Neeey at this referendum!

All - The Swiss announcement that it intends to sell half of their CB's gold is like a mutual fund manager issuing a press release stating that he "plans to" liquidate all of his positions held in the semiconductor industry. In making these statements, the value of that which is going to be sold is substantially affected to the downside. Large investment transactions on both buy and sell sides are not "telegraphed" in advance. Anyone, please tell me what business value Switzerland gets by making this pre-announcement???? On the contrary such large liquidation efforts are timed over a period so that maximum profitability is achieved. To use an analogy most recently mentioned in SJK's Gold Mining Outlook: The Swiss "Proposal" offered by the "Panel of Experts" along with its timing is a blatant effort to keep the passengers ( investors ) looking out to Sea ( paper investments ) as the crew ( market makers ) rearranges the deck chairs on the Titanic ( World Financial Markets ) . Look for more negative gold announcements to be coming. As is the paradox of power - it works both ways - the media hype that inflated the equities markets can be used just as effectively to deflate the value of alternative investments. This current campaign will keep gold in the dog house and set the stage for a gold market cornering attempt by the CB's. As I said in an earlier post, confiscation has not and will not work in today's world. It is far more effective to bludgeon the value of gold so that the owners of said metal will run with their tails between their legs to sell at the deflated value in return for worthless paper money. Once the CB/Market Maker gold ownership percentage is determined to be appropriate, gold will once more find its way as the root of worldwide currency.

Sort of reminds me of a story I once heard in that this farmer was notified by the county commissioner that his land was in a severe flood plain due to the planned construction of a reservoir. The land-owner decided to sell the land and move to "higher ground". Several years later a new international airport was constructed in part on that land and the old boy could have had a fortune. Guess who bought the land? The county commissioner's brother.

Alex - Absolutely right! What have you got to gain from it? What will you lose? Your currency will become more unstable and inflation will become a *way of life*. Silly joke on their part.

http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/wires/9710/24/gold_wg/
Apologies if already posted

Hurricane Gold winds up...stocks doing the final hour plunge thingy again...listen to that suck!
SWISS WILL NOT SELL GOLD....do not be fooled by spin doctors spun out of control in the hurricane....hey let's rotate into small caps...why don't they tell the truth for once...trust yourselves not your leaders.

D.A. What do you think monday will bring

John the Hepcat: You must be given credit for at least four correct if unpopular calls here on Kitco: ( 1 ) Flag to go nowhere in spite of all the hype over on K-II this past year; ( 2 ) Gold to 3-2-5 when it was 340-350 or higher; ( 3 ) T.IC to go ballistic ( the day after you called it, it did ) ; and now ( 4 ) gold 3-1-0 even as late as yesterday ( I thought a double-digit drop today was out of the question ) . You blew the Dow 8300-today call so you are human like the rest of us ( 10 minutes till close so who knows? ) . Don't appreciate ya trashin' my friend Ted though... You obviously have much you could add to this forum by tempering your comments and stifling the persecution complex. Just a hope... I'm gone...

All Gday

Sheesh, all I do is stack the zzzzzzzzs for a few hours, and I wake up to gold down $13 some. And it being Saturday I cant go buy some precious In fact is a holiday weekend so I have to wait till Tuesday, during your Monday trading to do anything but garden and lurk. Averaging down, dont like to, but cant pick the bottoms.
Starshine, agree with your take, something is very amiss here, I need some Java and stuff to think ....
Byron, anyone, please an idiots guide to *fill the gaps* or URL to same? Thanks in anticipation.

aurator

Gentlemen! Could anyboby comment the next trading day shall show up?

Is it just my imagination - ???

This selloff in equities started within 5 minutes of the metals markets closing.

Coincidence - I think not.

But I don't known how these men of war work

I can but ponder????

Just woke up and caught the news. My, my! In July, Oz Central bank reports SELLING 167 Tonnes and Gold falls $13 in two days. Now, the Swiss are going to a Referendum ( reportedly ) about maybe selling 1400 Tonnes over the next two years and Gold falls $13 in one day.

Also, re Greeenspan postponing his speech by one day to Oct 29, supposedly because he had to wait for some numbers to come out. I repeat, does anyone seriously think that Greenspan doesn't have advance access to any and all U.S. economic statistics?

Looking at what is presently happening with paper - currencies and stock markets - is bad enough, but what is Mr Greenspan seeing in the future?

Have to get a lot of web pages ready for updating. One thing for sure, $US Gold has taken out most support points. $A Gold price down about $A10 but the $A itself has fallen, last I heard, to $US 0.6925.

Starshine, you post brightly. Thanks for the perspective. A good one to my mind.

Bear's out of his cage, cat's out of the bag and in the cradle...and little boy blue from the Swiss Alps is blowing his horn.
See Nick's post with lots of news links...

On CNBC moments ago, Jeffrey Christian of the CPM group stated that today's sell off in gold was the result of CB "Funny Money" coming in to manipulate the market by short selling. Jeff paralleled today's activities with those of the gold market on 7/9/97. IMO the CB's can do this all of they want, when they cover, what are they losing? They can print all of the worthless money they need. This Swiss stuff is only a smoke screen.

Just picked up some Newmont Mining at the close for 41 7/8....Now will go back to my day job of "knife juggling : )

Not that it matters much, 96.46 on the XAU would be a .618 retracement on a percentage basis of its percentage gain to 111.33 from 91.54.

How should we have faith in this system! Free markets for all, right, open wide while we screw you over reaaal good.

Amidst all the gloom, silver stock FSR ( VSE ) is up 7% today and 24% for the week. Good people, good resource, more production. GPXM ( gold in the ground ) holding its own.

Alors ma frens.

Hepcat - schmepcat. Zee wizards call zee gold to 305 less than 10 days ago when she was at 323. If you buying zee beer for peuple, buy some for zee wizards or else zey weel tell you nozzing from zair monsieur Elliot magicks in zee future.

AYE Mates!!! I be a buying more n more till
the vaults be emptied. Let not ye be afeared
by ye Swiss sales. Time to plunder.

Was that a sound I may have heard?
A sss-hhh-ing far away?
Yet the day is good,and
the water as smooth as glass.

Was that a sound I heard?
A russshhhing o'vr there?
Yet these crystal days in fading hues
waters gently sway.

A rushing? Ahead?
Yet far. This water moving
me calmly on
to see the sound ahead.

Now I see a rippling
water plain breaking
and that sound again
louder than before.

'Interesting the force of water'
I think as I realize
that I am in the grip
of this giant's hand.

Paddling NOW!
HARD DIG DOWN RIGHT
Try for that bank
as hard as I can

Its over now
and
.
.
.
awaaaaaaay!!!

Starshine-I saw the interview too. Didn't the guy from CPM group have a look on his face like - Ask better questions, you'll get better answers.

More good news to hit the streets for Gold. CNBC report, you can now add insider trading to the BRE-X scandal.

Propaganda 101 people.

Today's lesson - confusion

My tequila filled thought of the moement. Buy with both hands. Silver stocks look even more appetizing to me now, I am adding more to my positions.

To all
Avid is well worth a browse back through todays action.
Some very coignent comments on stocks and gold.

Today was extremely important when one looks at the size of resources used.

Monday has a smell of tank to it.
But I've been wrong many times before.

Our SPI down 70 pts from high
Its going to one big down day on Monday over here
Stuff plus gold stocks = double wammy

This will have a similar effect globally = huge, huge double wammy!!!

Did the powers who be, not even realise that tanking the dow and gold at the same moment, has the potential to bring all stocks down very fast, globally.

Talk about pulling out the rug in a big big way.

Now the important question????

WHY

Why pull the house of cards down this way?

You have mail SIR.

TO any and all - does anyone have a list of these gold stocks that got "hammered" today. I will bet beans to donuts it was the big institutional's owned by big funds. Just curious, I figure somebody must have a body count to go along with all the zipper bags and the winnings from short plays in the market.

C'mon, pony e'm up, let's see all your trophies.

I'm waiting.

give me a drink. Give me a puff. Give me a pill. Gold is now great

WOW!! THE TRENDLINES ARE BEING CHALLENGED AND BROKEN ALMOST EVERYWHERE! AS I AND OTHERS HERE AT KITCO HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR WEEKS NOW, THE PAPER GAME IS OVER AND THE METALS GAME IS ABOUT TO BEGIN DESPITE TODAY'S NASTY CAPITULATION! But THAT IS THE KEY, MEINE FREUNDE! CAPITULATION!! THAT IS THE LAST STAGE OF A BEAR OR BULL MARKET AND WE'RE NOW SEEING IT IN SPADES IN THE METALS!! I LOOK FOR A QUICK TEST OF $300 DEC. Gold and A KEY REVERSAL BACK TO $320 in a couple of weeks to get the new bull market out of the stockade! THE TIME TO SELL SE ASIA is past, but the TIME TO SELL EASTERN EUROPE, Latin America and the US is just beginning!! I repeat! SELL ALL US STOCKS AND BONDS ( will get clobbered when the margin calls are delivered to Japanese banks and they are forced to sell their most liquid assets, US BILLS AND BONDS!! ) AND START BUYING THE PM's! THIS IS THE BUYING OPPORTUNITY OF ALL TIME AND MAY, NO, WILL NEVER BE SEEN AGAIN!! DO NOT BUY THE DIPS IN PAPER! BUY THE DIPS IN THE PM'S!! THIS IS THE FINAL CAPITULATION ( EXGHAUSTION GAP! ) DOWN! Once complete, IT'S OFF TO THE RACES AS PAPER GETS CLOBBERED AND THE CB'S PANIC PRINT THE GREEN!

I said on Thurs AM that hey would be all over gold because of the crisis. They were. Today the real target was silver where there is a real physical shortage and the technicals were positive. 16 bucks down on gold did the trick. Though in silver pretty soon they are going to need silver to sell to suppress it and not deriviatives.

Todays comment. The worse the ( hidden ) crisis the greater the manipulation of the metals. Today was really a bullish day for the metals if you think about it.

Tolerant 1 ROYAL OAK MINES CLOSED TODAY @ 2.5 Unch. on almost 4 million.

Afraid not tolerant1, of the list I keep just about everything dropped or broke even.
Except HVGO 13/16 +3/32 +13.04% 9,500 , MGJ.V 0.61 +0.02 +3.39% 141,800, PDLCF 2 5/8 +3/16 +7.69% 2,200, SMR.V 0.83 +0.08 +10.67% 28,000,.

Tha is from a list of maybe 80+ pm stocks.

Tolerant1: In response to you enquiry about today's hits: XAU down 8.65%. Gold stocks that were down more include: HRG 14.5%; PDG 10.7%; HM 9.83%; K 11%; TVX 8.9%; EN 17.3%; ELD 9.8%; BGO 11.8%. Other stocks I watch which I follow and which went down less than the XAU are: FN, MAE, NGC, ABX, PGD, R, TMO, and RYO. None of the producers went up, but two of the in-the gound stocks VEN -2.5% and GPXM +3% were ok. Fortunately, I was only holding in-the gound-stocks today having gotten out of TVX and K several days ago.

Is there a method here. July Aussie announces PAST sale ( forget who bought ) kill gold at the end of the day after slowly driving it down for a couple of weeks. Oct drive gold down for a couple of weeks then have the Swiss announce someting they announced before that they might sell 1400 tonnes of gold in 1999 if it is passed by referendum ( PS it is always smart to drive down the price of something you might want to sell before you sell it? ) . Cover Cover Cover for a RAID KEEP THE CONFIDENCE BABY Everything is AOK .

This ship is leaking - badly - seriously
All these following shares have made important gaps - breakaway gaps
Their future is destined to the down trend.

NDX SOX MSH
AA, AXP, BA, CHV, KO, DD, HWP, IP, IBM, JNJ, MRK, MCD, JPM, MO, S, UK, UTX.
AMAT, ASND, ALTR, BGEN, ALTR, COMS, MCIC, QNTM, TLAB, YELL.

Special gappers NDX, DELL INTC, UAL, TCOMA, SUNW,

Also Gold - could it be an exhaustion gap if not soon?

I am trying to post the Dow/Gold Ratio and need some help on spot close. Kitco has it at 310.20 in one place, 309.70 in another. Both prices are higher than the 308.60 CNBC is showing for December futures. Can someone furnish correct numbers?

D.A.: enjoyed your 13:36 post. I think today shows how much the powers that be want the current paper system to work. Gold seems to be expendible to this end. I think you may be right that gold may be the last commodity ( currency ) that goes up -- since it is being used to hold the paper system together. Rather hard for us little guys to invest in gold when a gold rally is considered a failure of the paper system, and is squelched whenever it begins. Rather like the indicator everyone knows about -- not very useful anymore.
The only thing in our favor as investors is that this charade cannot last forever. As WD Gann once said, "the harder something is pushed down, the higher it rises when the rally finally comes" I don't think he said this exactly but it is close.

It's been discussed before about the selling of Bond by the Asians. Greenspan and Rubin needed new buyers. What better way than to push down the finacial stocks and force money into the buying of Bonds. The pattern does apppear to be there that, that is what is happening. IMHO.

I agree that the CB's are terrified and have a super BEAR by the tail. The move today verfies it.

Aside: How is this gold drop going to impact South Africa. Not goo I think.

Those of you that are SDR experts. You might look to see if there is a clue in the SDR indicating what went on today. The Swiss may have been paid for this ??? The CB's worked in coordination, but I think there goal wasn't just to drive gold down. I think the are trying to preserve confidence in their currencies and their markets. They failed. World markets are headed down and currencies devaluations are spreading.

Think about the asian that over the past year put there funds under there beds in the form of gold. They are sleeping quite nicely at the moment while the ones that put their funds in currencies, markets, bonds are in tears.

The same thing can happen in the western world -- that is what the CB's are terrified of. What actions will they be planning over the weekend. The Japanese and Hong Kong market will be under major pressure come Monday morning.

EBN was 308.05 at close, USA today online 308.60

Donald: Bart posted a nice summary of "getting the spot price" and the problems associated with attemping to do that. Don't rememeber the time and date of that post. Remember that he said that something to the effect that the spot price can vary quite a bit depending when the boys doing the spot business decide to go home for the day. ( this is to the best of my memory of his post ) . Might want to e-mail Bart. He might have more definitive info. : )

They sold gold to cover margins due to heavy selling on equities. Also there are reports of people lined "out the door" in Alhambra, California at gold dealers buying gold. This is a positive sign and a great opportunity. Please if anyone has any information on frenzy buying elsewhere please let us know at Kitco.

Since your ratio would have had us buying gold
at the open this morning.

Donald -- Nothing like a little negative Premium to add some spice to life, Eh?

Hong Kong monetary authority goes to war on speculators


HONG KONG, Oct 23 ( AFP ) - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority
( HKMA ) , the territory's central bank, on Thursday declared war on
speculators pressuring the Hong Kong dollar, sharply pushing up
interbank interest rates.
The authority closed down normal rate finance for banks that it
suspected was using the money for attacks on the local dollar. Loans
were to be considered on a case by case basis.
The interbank overnight rate rose to 22.0-25.0 percent from 6.0
percent at Wednesday's close, dealers said.
The HKMA's Liquidity Adjustment Facility normally allows Hong
Kong banks to borrow at a discount rate of 6.25 percent.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia treasurer Andrew Fung said the
HKMA's action has unnerved the money markets, particularly
institutions who have financed speculators.
"Clearly, some banks have overextended themselves. The HKMA is
saying that those financial institutions that have financed
speculators will be penalised," Fung said.
"The authority will not grant those institutions full access to
the discount rate of 6.25 pct. This has panicked the money markets,"
he said.
Fung said it is "very difficult" to know which financial
institutions are vulnerable, although the HKMA will be "fully aware"
of who is "repeatedly coming to the LAF window."

Private Investor ( DK ) :

e-mail me at: kale chickenthighsgasen. I'm depressed.

Mike Sheller-Now that was a pretty good Conjunction for all us Gold Bears.Faster than a speeding bullet and money for steaks and all.... A little sauce next week and then some turns to the upside.Get ready,Get set. Happy Trails

HSBC orders halt to early release of time deposits to prevent
"instability"


HONG KONG, Oct 23 ( AFP ) - Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp.
Thursday halted the release of local curency time deposits before
their maturity in a bid to prevent "instability," a company
spokesman said.
The move, which came as the territory plunged into financial
chaos, was within the discretionary terms of the group's time
deposit policies and was exercised from 11:30 a.m. ( 0330 GMT ) , he
added.
The option had not been exercised over time deposits in other
currencies.
"Given the current strong upward pressure on money market rates,
the bank does not consider it appropriate to allow uplifting of
deposits before maturity," the spokesman said.
"To do so would effectively turn time deposits into call
deposits, thereby contributing to possible instability in the Hong
Kong dollar market."
The spokesman said customers could obtain loans or overdraft
facilities against their Hong Kong time deposits.

Ted,would you email me please.

Holy moly, guacamole!! I take some time off to frolic in some new fallen high Rocky snow, and I return to see gold at [gasp] 3-1-0 ( or there abouts ) . Sheeeeeesh!! Welp, time to buy on the dip, I guess.

But I gotta eat my fair portion of crow......I opined just a couple days ago that the shorts were finished at 315 or below. And 330 was looking good as a fresh base level -- as it has been building for the past couple months. Doooohh! So, the frost is on the pumpkin and it's time for dinky-dunkin'.

What say you soothsayers? Will Monday bounce things back up, or is this a dead cat bounce? I'm gonna let things stabilize a day or two and then see how buying some more physical looks. Lessee....payday is only a week away.....hmmmmm....

GOLDFINGER:
I am in the Bay Area and I am looking to my some gold and "junk silver" coins. Do you have any recommendations?? Thanks.

A. was me. Getting tired I guess.

Byron, Roebear: Thanks. I will use the 310.20 which is thw quote from the place I have used every other night. Apparently there was a rally in spot after futures closed. I can fix it later if this is wrong.

DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!

Stagflation, Stagflation, Stagflation, Stagflation... DEfation + currency crisis.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.87 ( ounces to buy the Dow ) The ratio says that gold is the preferred investment over Dow stocks as I has been since July when the ratio topped at 26.2. We still do not have the 10% decline in the ratio that would most likely signal a Dow Bear and a Gold Bull but we seem to be trending in that direction.

Does your ratio have to go up 10% from 26.2 for the Dow to
be considered a good investment? Please plug in the numbers
and tell me what this figures out to be using: a ) 310
as the denominator ( i.e. what is the numerator? ) and
b ) 7700 or whatever the Dow closed at today as the numerator
( i.e. what is the denominator ) . Please do this both to
get back to 26.2 and to get to 28.8 ( a 10% increase ) .
P.S. Since you're not going to respond to me could someone
else please? Also, if no one else does, rest assured I
will when I get a break from cleaning the stalls at
BK.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .311 Ounces to buy the XAU. The ratio indicates that the stocks of the XAU are still in traditional risky territory where they have been for the past 3+ years. ( Proved it today for sure )

Is there a doctor in the house sympathetic to Kervorkian's cause.

This bleeding gold bug needs to be relieved of his pain!!!!

Let's see. The Dow was down a total of 315+ in the last two day. Don't worry, be happy.: )

Nasdaq says Oct. short interest sets record
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/z0000_34.html

China sees limited impact from Hong Kong crisis
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/z0000_z00_28.html

U.S., China agree on financial news market access
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/dj_rtrsy_1.html

COMEX copper ends at 10-mth low on fund selling
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/y0021_y00_12.html

Really gone to dream ( :-}}}}

kiwi: your 17:27 about HSBC. Am I right -- a run on HSBC? This is one of the most respected banks in Hong Kong! If this is so -- this is big time -- this will spread around the world, I would guess. Not necessarily causing runs on banks elsewhere, but continued currency crises. What times we live in -- this sure sounds like the 1929 scenario to me!
In 1929 gold stocks started to rally at the time the markets fell ( gold stocks depressed for nearly a year before the crash ) . The real rally started at least a year later, and really took off around 1932 or 1933 when Roosevelt raised gold from $22 to $34 per once. I guess the parallel here is when the CB's throw in the towel -- will it take 3 years? Probably not, because this time our AG will inflate us out of a "1929" collapse. What worries me is that the paper collapse could be more like 1987 when the gold stocks crashed. This time, however, I don't think the gold stocks can fall very far -- they are down so much already.

This will put the golden massacre in perspective -- from Bloomberg News in Bern, Switzerland:

By Theresa Waldrop and Reto Gregori Bern: A Swiss government panel said the nation's central bank should sell more than half of
its gold reserves -- 1,400 tons -- driving gold prices to 12-year lows. The panel said Switzerland no longer needs to back its currency
with gold reserves, the world's fifth largest. Gold fell 5 percent to $308.60 an ounce in New York, the lowest since March 1985. The
1,400 tons is equal to about 40 percent of annual global demand. The recommendation comes as the world's central banks shed
reserves of the precious metal in favor of better returns in bonds. Australia said in July it sold two-thirds of its gold, following earlier
sales by the Netherlands and Belgium. ``This is another nail in the coffin in the idea that gold is a key monetary asset for central
banks,'' said Kamal Naqvi, a precious metals analyst at Macquarie Equities Ltd. in London. While the Swiss government rejected the
recommendation, that did little to calm investor concerns. The government said it will sell only about 400 of its 2,590 tons in gold, as
it planned earlier, and that the sales probably will occur over the course of a decade after the year 2000. Published 15:07

we will witness the worst banking collapse since Europe's 14th century "New Dark Age"...you will shake your head in wonder that we are in the eye of the hurricane of such magnitude following the main events. I'm just sad for all the "little" people who will suffer...are they really that little but they certainly didn't deserve this. But then the boffins that be and financial wizards that are ( has beens ) will give out their Nobbled prizes and congratulate how much pseudo money we can flick around electronically and marvel at the creation of wealth through mathematical magic....the universal law of ENTRPY says there is no such thing as a free lunch, it's just WHO PAYS that is the question. Well a high entropy situation always corrects itself via the largest eddy around...HURRICANE GOLD.

Kiwi must have just finished in there.

Okay, here's what I got. If gold stays at 310, the Dow would
have to get back to 8112 for the 26.2 ratio to be reached,
and go to 8928 before the Dow would be considered a better
investment than gold according to Donald.

If the Dow stays at 7700, Gold would have to drop to 293
for the 26.2 ratio to be reached, and go to 267 before
it would then be considered a worse investment than
the Dow.

So in other words, Donald, if the Dow stayed at 7700,
gold would have to go to $267/ounce before you would
capitulate and say, "Okay, maybe investing in gold
wasn't such a good idea." Conversely, if gold stays
at $310, the Dow could go to 8900 before you would
say, "Okay, now the signal is here to buy the Dow."
When or if the Dow gets to 8900, you better believe
I'm going to be more likely to get out than to jump in,
regardless of what your ratio tells me.

but I think it's your DOW bull that is really stinking!
To high heaven in fact, yeah right DOW 8900, what planet did you just land from? This pyramid scheme is over, the big boys are out and it is only left for the little guys to look sheepish and say "I'm in it for the long run". Well they're gonna be running for a LOOOOng time I'll tell you that for nothing. It just makes me sick that you are trying to delude people into believing they can earn money for nothing...it just doesn't work..in fact nobody works and now look what happens everybody is glued to the screen hoping to make a fast buck, WAKE UP lazy bones.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/pbct_z0009_1.html

Is that your baseline ratio should be the highest
the Dow ever got over the highest gold ever got,
or somewhere around 10. Anything above 10 would
then tell me "invest in the Dow". Anything below
10 would then tell me "invest in gold". Actually,
this is also silly, because what tells me to invest
in the Dow or in gold is its recent performance.
Your ratio does not account for that, as today
demonstrated.

10/24 17:39 Stock market turmoil stirs need for
gold-plating portfolios

( Updates to close ) By Pierre Belec

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Wall Street is forever dodging bullets, and the latest shot came from a
panic sell-off in Hong Kong stocks.

The ripple effect on the global stock market shook investors' confidence but it also gave gold
buffs another reason to gold-plate their investment portfolios.

Stocks spun lower this week, taking their cue from the Hong Kong market's worst collapse in
history on concern that the country might be losing a war with currency speculators.

Hong Kong's blue-chip Hang Seng Index crumbled more than 10 percent, and tumbled 18.1
percent for the week, becoming the latest casualty of what has come to be known as the ``Asian
flu.'' Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines have undergone similar shakeouts since
midsummer.

By Friday, the Hong Kong market rallied, but the Dow Jones industrial average skidded further on
lingering concern that the crisis may not be over. The Dow closed down 132.36 points at 7,715.41
after plummeting 187 points on Thursday. For the week, it was down 131.62 points.

The plunge that spread from Southeast Asia to Europe and finally to the United States reminded
investors that the world's biggest stock market was vulnerable to events in faraway markets and
of the need to find safer havens, such as gold.

``We're seeing some interest for gold stocks as a hedge against the Asian crisis,'' said Douglas
Cohen, equity reseach analyst for Morgan Stanley.

``These stocks have been beaten down so significantly that they have a lot more room on the
upside than on the downside,'' he said.

Indeed, things may be turning up for gold mutual funds, which had their best showing of the year
in the third quarter.

Lipper Analytical Services said the total return of gold-oriented mutual funds rose 1.3 percent in
the latest quarter after dropping 12.2 percent in the second and slipping 7.8 percent in the first
quarter. The gain was the biggest since a 23.6 percent rise in the first quarter of last year.

Cohen said that if the Asian financial turmoil triggers a bigger freefall in stocks, gold will ``assert
its historical role and outperform.'' Gold has traditionally risen when stocks have been going
through rough times.

Many financial advisers are now recommending that investors hold between 5 percent and 10
percent of their portfolios in gold-related assets.

For the last four years of huge stock market gains, it has been hard to build a bullish argument for
gold.

The precious metal was again under the gun Friday as it retreated to the lowest level in more than
a decade at $308 an ounce on news of a Swiss proposal to sell 1,400 metric tons of gold if it is
approved by a nationwide referendum set for 1999.

James Dines, publisher of the Dines Letter, said gold will turn out to be one of the greatest
sleeping investments.

``The Asian turmoil looks like a very strong kind of buying signal for gold because we are getting
that flight to safety and the scared Asian investors are going into the ultimate asset,'' he said.

Central bank selling and a strong dollar have contributed to the bearish sentiment toward gold,
whose appeal as an insurance policy against hyperinflation has also been undermined by the
lowest inflation rate since the 1960s.

But the gold bugs who tend to have an apocalyptic view of financial markets believe that when
everybody else is bearish, then, it is time to be bullish.

And, a worldwide correction in stocks could bring an accelerated rise in gold, which has attracted
only the most adventurous speculators in the last few years.

Analysts said the metal's fundamentals are improving because depressed gold prices have caused
mines to close while demand is growing.

``Supply-demand is very closely balanced, and any supply dislocation would cause a very tight
market,'' said John Geraghty at North American Equity Services, a consulting firm.

He said that ``political'' supplies from the central bank selling have kept a lid on gold. The leading
central banks of Europe have been steady sellers of gold to raise money to pay for popular social
programs and balance their budgets.

``Effectively, they have been burning the furniture to keep their houses warm,'' Geraghty said.

Geraghty said that the inevitable results of the central banks' selling is bullish for gold.

``As the banks divest themselves of their gold and their supplies become less of a psychological
overhang, the more likely the value of gold will increase,'' he said.

On Friday, the Nasdaq composite index closed down 20.33 points at 1,650.92. For the week, it
was down 15.93.

The Standard & Poor's index of 500 was off 9.05 points at 941.64, and stood 2.52 lower from a
week ago. The American Stock Exchange index fell 2.21 to 701.18, and was up 3.00 on the
week.

The NYSE Composite lost 3.72 to 495.77. For the week, it was off 8.00 points.

( Questions or comments on the Stocks-Week Column can be addressed to Pierre.Belec
( at ) Reuters.Com )

^REUTERS@ Reut17:40 10-24-97

I am not impressed at all with the paper dogmatist's. Not one bit, as a friend of mine says," I have no respect for the figment standard."

CNBC's version of the Lemmingville News is abuzz with the sale of Swiss gold. What sale. Didn't even happen, the Swiss have to vote on it. And it will be quite some time before they do.

Asian dishoarding of gold. Lemming Phooey I say. They are gobbling up the stuff.

Let's see, what other fatuous, idotic diatribe can we pelt the lemmings with. Oh, yeah, Bre-X, there's more to the scandal, step right up, let me tell ya all about it............Oh, Horsepucky.

Once upon a time there were all these little Treasuires that went far, far away, and now all those Treasuries are coming home. Stuffing our own worthless paper right back in our face's. Mr. Soros and friends will have a feeding frenzy on the bloated dollar.

The way Lemming TV was talking about the gold market today, you would've thought John Denver crashed his plane again.

C'mon, people wake up to smell of coffee.

Gold is alive and well, and his little brother silver has not even begun to show his stuff.

Wake up from virtual reality, breathe deep and inhale a strong dose of actual reality.

Gold stocks have been so depressed for so long, and this is the best attack they could muster against poor l'il ol Mr. Gold. Yada, Yada, Yada.

Today was one of the most bullish days for gold in a long while. The figment standard will be under full metal attack in the not too distant future.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/24/y0004_z00_11.html

Wow, after a hard day at the salt mines to flip on the 'puter and see gold down to where the cat predicted! It may be time to liquidate some shares of T and buy, buy, buy!!!

Just one simple question. If someone offered you an ounce of gold or $310 worth of rice paper with green ink on it, which one would you take?

To All: could it be that the Chinese are somehow involved in the tumultuous events of this week in Hong Kong and elsewhere. Just a thought! Patience is their virtue!

I'm not telling anyone the Dow is going to 8900.
I'm saying Donald's buy signal would be 8900
if gold stayed at $310. I'm saying I would not
be real excited about getting in at 8900,
not only because I would be scared that the Dow
had topped out by that time, but because I
would have missed the run up to 8900. If gold
rose during that time to $325, the Dow would
have to go even higher before Donald's ratio
told me it was safe to buy the Dow. Here's
the other problem: I can buy many things
besides the DJIA - I have some mutual funds
that perform better than the Dow, I have
some stocks that perform worse than the Dow.
But gold is gold. If I buy gold and gold
goes down 3%, then gold goes down 3%.
The only value of Donald's ratio is as
a historical indicator - Since July, the Dow
has performed worse than gold. But I
don't need a ratio to tell me that.
Gold reached a 12-year low in July, and
reached a new contract low only today.
The Dow was approaching an all-time
high in July. All I'm saying is
Donald's agenda is to demonstrate that
gold is a better investment than the Dow
using this ratio. But that is
inherently unfair because the two are
not related by any type of equation
and because gold has some absolute
bottom ( cost of production - failing
this, bullion coins have a face value )
whereas the Dow doesn't.

They are creating price then news to discredit an investment when their empire is under attack. They are over extended and they like the Japanese at the end of defending their empire they used Kamikazes. Gold was hit by paper kamikazes today.

Too many goods and services all chasing the same dollar. Competition from all corners of the world. Yes, the capitolist is hanging himself with his own noose. The high tech is what drove this boom and now over supply is going to collapse this house of cards. Watch in surprise how quickly we slip in depression if the Christmas sales drop off due to a financial crisis. No government will be able to stop it. 70 years of excesses and inflation must be resolved taking with it everyones savings. Only a large scale war or a miracle can stop it.

Brazil down 354 ( 3% ) , Mexico down 139 ( 2.74% )

re Korondy's 17:47 post: Four hundred tonnes to be sold by the Swiss? Gee, that would be enough for every woman in North America to have a new pair of smallish 14k earrings. ( Only 10k though if the teenaged boys want them too. )

WEBPILOT - Am I an American Lemming with my own private bottle of Perrier, tuned into to CNBC the Swiss Gold Sales Network or somebody with a brain?

Expect massive deflation if this house of cards comes tumbling down.

kiwi: Your are right about the "little people" They are actually the majority of the worlds citizens. The powers that be, some of them elected by the little people -- for whatever reason -- delusion, whatever -- have allowed this to happen. And just like in a war, it is not the armies or their generals that suffer the most, it is the civilians. I am not talking necessarily about conspiracies that led to this, that is not needed -- just the self defeating delusion that any currency can be created without having an firm anchor to a "hard" asset such as gold. It is also human nature to forget the lessons of our forefathers in about three generations -- the Kondratiev wave cycle.
Part of what is happening is a natural human cycle -- which we can't seem to escape, whatever we do. Hopefully the next time around, we will do better!
I had really expected that the real gold rally would happen around 2003-2007, given cycles analysis. Looks like it may be much sooner than I expected.

It is fascinating on days like today to witness the
level of denial here on Kitco. If it does everyone
good to deny that the Swiss are going to sell gold,
super. Whether or not the Swiss sell gold doesn't
change the fact that gold fell $14 today. Gold was
manipulated down $14 by outside forces, if that
makes you feel better. Forget about the Swiss,
forget about the outside forces, and concentrate
on one thing:

At what point or at what price will you
say, "Gold is not a good investment currently"?
Gold proved not to be a good investment
at $315 back in July. That is a fact.
I hope for you all's sakes that gold proves
to be a good investment at $310. But suppose,
just suppose, it doesn't. Suppose gold
is at $300 by December. Does every drop
in gold just make you more determined that
it is a good investment? Are you trying
to prove something to yourselves regardless
of the cost?

Could someone please give me a number,
any number, that says "Okay, if gold
goes down to this, then I'll admit
gold isn't a good investment". I
will grant you all the conspiracies,
all the manipulations, all the
consortiums, all the Big Traders
and Anothers, all of that at
whatever level you choose.
Just choose something, so
I know you all aren't completely
beyond reasoning.

Meltdown, a coincidence I think not. The US will be bribed for their financial stability...what will be the price? Human rights?, democracy?, environment?, where do we start the bidding? If China dumped $100 billion on the markets wouldn't that just overturn the wagon, would they care, NO. Their people have everything they need for now, food, clothing only they want for more because of the "west" has. If the west didn't have it wouldn't be a problem....it's thoughts blowing in the wind the west doesn't have...and they definitely don't have GOLD.

Switzerland and the Tooth Fairy will sell gold and I have a great bargain for you on the Brooklyn Bridge. The Central Banks cried wolf again. How many times are investors going to believe them? The Central Banks are probably surprised that anyone swallows their baloney. I

Let's see, war, nah, how bout a miracle. Hmmmm How about a world where money is backed 100% by gold, and nobody can mess with it but the person that owns it. Now that would be a miracle.

All goldbugs: BUY on dips. I just bought some more today. I would love to see gold at $1/oz. I would buy a lot of it!

Gold price closed at its intra-day low. The shorts did not cover before the weekend. Chaos continues until half the gold mines close or gold miners figure out how they will survive in the face of CB supported market management by deep pocket short speculators. A lobby group to finance an investigation of market trade practice and support for transparency is sorrowfully lacking. As long as current market practices ( 90% OTC ) prevail there is little merit in technical or fundmental analysis of the 'gold market' as it really depends on the rapid exploitation of spin messages by a few well financed spec funds. The Swiss govt, I understand, rejected the proposed sale of 1,400 tonnes, instead will only sell 400 tonnes over ten years after year 2000 - according to a recent Kitcoite post of a Swiss originated Bloomberg news release. It is without doubt that ordinary investors can not consider the gold market ( bullion or gold stocks ) with comfort given the lack of transparency and the CB spin overhang. The really sad aspect is that the deep pocket shorts will be making the real money when they decide the gold market is ready for long rally. When will an investigation be sponsored in gold market manipulation ?!

Cheers

I would almost believe that a rally in the gold price would be considered a plus bu the stock market as there seem to be be big worries about deflation.

RJ and Hepcat are definitly having the last laugh

HERE WE GO ONCE AGAIN: Hey, yo pal, you need to learn to enjoy the foreplay.

as is FREEDOM. Right now the majority of the world's population ( Asian's ) have Gold and FREEDOM in their hands, westerner's have put theirs in the bankers trust...the bankers have all our freedom in their hands. Our little group is a sampling of the minority so HEPCAT you will not find a bottom price here. We will not give up our freedom to the trust of others, the bankers cannot be trusted, sad thing is we never learnt this lesson before.

Hepcat, re your 18:36. The answer to your question as to whether rationality will prevail here at some point is NO! However, there are some good minds and rational folks here with valuable insights to share. Personally, I still believe in Silver and Platinum but Gold will remain a TINY part of my portfolio.

Congratulations on your $310 call. You must have made that prediction from the "Grassy Knoll". They can call you abrasive if they want to, but you can't argue with facts. You're LIGHT YEARS aheaad of Snake OIl VooDoo salesmen like Sheller, and sensationalists like Puetz.

Shek when you get your $ 1 oz there will be some one else who wants gold at 10 cents/oz so they could get an even better "barrrgain."

Colleen,All: Here is the web site for the "Foundation for Cycles Analysis". As I said earlier, I think it is the largest collection in the world for data pertaining to cycles -- not just the market, but sunspots, weather, tree growth rings ( 8000 years ) , war cycles to 2000-3000 BC, you name it!
This is a legitimate scientific data repository, with extensive book listings as well -- some dealing with the market analysis. This is where you can see the Scientific basis for AstroInvesting -- not the complex stuff that Mike Sheller does -- but something the uninitiated can understand.
http://wanda.pond.com/~cycles/
Colleen: I would like very much to correspond with your Phyicist friend if you can send me his E-mail address. His quantization stuff sounds interesting. In the meanwhile you should make sure he knows about the above web site, and that of Roy Tomes -- from my earlier post. Roy's stuff is right up his alley. He should set up his own web site, so that he can correspond with others with interests similar to his. The awakening is on the net -- not in stodgy Physics Journals, where the establishment is not ready for the fringe stuff. It should be up to the discerning reader to separate the wheat from the chaff! God knows -- there is a lot of chaff on the net, but the wheat or pearls like the Kitco site make it all worth it -- even with the money I lost today on gold stocks!

Interesting that in the WSJ there was an extremely bearish artcile on Gold ( published before the Swiss announcement ) , which headline read "Gold gains a PALTRY .34% on Stock Market Fall".

The article went on to state that the lack of response by Gold to the Hong Kon crash or our own Market woes, was "VERY BEARISH for Gold", and also states that Asian demand for Gold is leveling off ( not rising ) from the currency problems there due to a need for the ASian investors getting hurt to SELL their hard money assets in order to make up for shortfalls in their paper markets.

This plus the Swiss announcement, and all the other terrible news for Gold in the past 2 years leads me to believe that Gold will be going nowhere in the near term. I still believe in Silver & Platinum though, due to supply/demand, industrial uses, shortages, low stockpiles, etc.

tolerant1 - Yes, it would have been interesting if more direct questions were asked. As it is, I believe that CNBC did not expect what was said. Funny, they haven't been replaying that interview as they have the bearish gold interview with the other analyst that was aired today. I bet we will see little of Jeffrey Christian on CNBC in the future. Which reminds me, where has my buddy Jimmy Rogers been during all this action? He used to be on CNBC every Friday morning. I distinctly remember about two months ago on a Friday morning that Jimmy mumbled "The financial markets will be in a world of hurt by Christmas." I wonder what he knows. You know, I may sound too conspiratorial, but if you follow the flow of money it will lead you to some significant truth. Where do the CNBC's of the world get their revenue? Of course, from their advertisers. The last thing you want to do to your customers is to report on items that could lead to their customer's demise. To me, this is not rocket science, just common horse sense.

Concerning Bre-X: I am not a frequent trader and such, but one thing that always puzzled me about this whole Bre-X deal was that when the huge gold volume of the mine was initially disclosed, it would have made sense to me that gold would have taken a big hit because of the dilution due to increased supply. However, gold seemed to stand firm, albeit at its prevailing low level. The Bre-X deal regardless of what was behind it has also been fodder upon which the media has fed upon in order to degrade what was once one of the most noble of investments - gold. This together with announcements such as those made by the Swiss are very fortuitous to the established investment "house of cards". Maybe it is genuine coincidence, or maybe as in the Wizard of Oz, there is a man behind the curtain pulling some levers that we have not yet identified.

Kiwi, afraid I must side with the Cat on this irrational Gold sentiment. Gold doesn't buy you freedom or security. The govt. could confiscate it tomorrow along with your guns if they so choose, and very few Americans would care, or revolt. In fact it'd probably be "politically correct". You have to learn to think about Gold in rational realiztic terms. Those who have failed to do so, and were fanatical die hard Gold Bugs ( to the exclusion of paper ) have done nothing but impoverish themselves for a decade or more. There is NO crises on the horizon that will ever recompense them for their totally flawed ideology, EVEN IF we get a crash in stocks and a boom in Gold prices in the next few years. They remain so far behind the curve they can never recover.

Many have retired, purchased homes, educations, Jewelry, and a wide variety of intangibles such as vacations due to their stock profits. They have been better off regardless of what happens to the markets in the near term. And in the long term, stocks will shine as they have since the free market began, over the LON RUN. Do some 100 year comparisons of various investments. That tells the story well.

Have you noticed George ( I'm sure you have ) that the New High to New Low ratio REVERSED dramatically the past 2 days? Since this is one of the things you so excellently brought to our attention as a good measure of the underlying health of the market, it would appear to me that both Stocks AND Gold are in for some rough sledding ahead. Gooooo Silver.....

Remember one thing .....a 1 ounce American gold Eagle, which is a legal tender coin in this nation, has a face value of $50 US dollars...gold cannot drop below $50 per ounce...gold would be a definite buy at that price as there would be no downside whatsoever....

TO Shek

Buying on dips? No thanks.
I'll wait til gold breaks below $290

TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

JTF-How many roads are stable for the minds of the future? Mike Sheller complicated? LGB normal and the beat goes on.Happy Trails.

If the asians devalued their currency, and now the swiss have defacto
devauled their currency, how long before the US has to devalue in order
to stay competitive in the world marketplace? Can we last through the
spring...for the last few quarters the multinationals have been publically
complaining the dollar was too high....Despite in daily punishment we
are taking it should not be too long before we devalue...do they keep gold
low or do they prevent the economy from deflating....not a hard choice, i think.

If the CBs have colluded and conspired to talk down gold, how low do they want it to go ? 250 ? 150 ? Would they be pleased with $35 ? If not, why not ?? Or do they, in fact, not really care nearly so much as we here do ?

"Normal", now you're talking Poorhouse. I've been "normal" all along. P.S., It's not schizophrenic to watch the markets closely, find extremely bearish trends developing coupled with News that's bearish, and adjust your position and strategy accordingly, in fact that's the way to SURVIVE in today's world. It's the Diehard fanatics who always come up on the short end. ( And people who invest based on Planets & Stars & such )

Anyone graphing gold, turn your graph upside down.
Et voila.

She's going back up.

Happy weekend everyone

Say, in the last several years no one has published those doom and gloom books that used to be on the shelves. What happen to all those guys? Well they were all wrong about the time not the event. But now no one is prepared for a financial crisis. The majority could not even give it a second thought, it can't and will not happen. Not in America anyway and our government wouldn't let it happen. That's the mentality of the majority. Tell someone or a friend ( if you dare sounding off like a fool ) we are going to have a depression. No you would'nt because you would sound like a fool and you would have a hard time with it yourself. However this time around it will be for real as nobody is writing books or talking about doom and gloom. Make your own assessment.

Isn't it interesting that all this wild ACTION in both Gold and the markets did NOT happen on the Full Moon or even close to it? The scariest activity in months perhaps for BOTH markets has happened in the past 2 days hasn't it?

Course if it HAD happened on a full Moon then you KNOW what kinda nonsense we would have been reading here. I'll just try and be a voice of reason pointing this kind of thing out from time to time, not to be a self indulgent A hole, but only in the hopes that someone somewhere will be swayed away from VooDoo Dark Ages thinking, and consider that some "cycles" and "Patterns" have nothing to do with Stars, Planets, Long waves, STadium waves, Tsunami waves, Crsytal caves, Knights and Knaves...OK enough

Elaine Garzarelli's a big ball of goo! But she may be right on gold/gold stocks.

The Wall St Journal's and other influential media bashing Gold when really no one has an interest in it and its price is languid at best speaks volumes about the symbolic importance of gold. Why obssess about something everybody doesnt want. Aussie July and Swissie Oct shows they fear gold. The only question is whether they will be able to rescue financials. Thoughts of ECON slowdown means hello US deficits and good bye dollar Hello? When it is everyone for himself in the emerging worldwide depression and credit implosion watchout. WHY IS US PROPOSING EASIER Bankruptcy ans. b/c they need the spending machine to continue so the creditors of US do not foreclose!

Goldinger, an Asteroid will hit the Earth next year. terrible disastor. If I'm wrong, it's only my timing that was off, EVENTUALLY it WILL happen. Life as we know it will cease. I think I'll write a book.

StarShine- I have no idea what happened to him. I would not give too much thought to Bre-X - it was criminal, plain and simple.

Think of it this way - if the media gave 1 1000th as much coverage to the reserve and cb's as they did to Bre-X, the people would run into their office's and home's and throw them out of the windows like they did with the Nazis.

And trust me on this. Nobody had an inkling of remorse when they hit the pavement.

We will never give up our gold.
We will fight the paper tiger on our beaches,
in our streets, in our homes.
Will never surrender. 7,000 years of recorded history is on
our sides. Paper is the yoke of slavers; gold is the liberating
sword of financial independance. What matters it that gold has been
down? The day of reckoning for the paper-pushers is very near.
Your doom will unfold in a twinkling, billion Riechmark ... er ...
dollar bills blowing in the streets like so many autumn leaves.
Those who have seen through this scam and preserved their wealth with
gold will merely shake their heads at your folly.

Buy on dips? What we have here, is a perfect "dip" buying opportunity for Silver, which we can see is showing amazing strength rather than following Gold in a historically proportional drop. Fundamentals Petronius, fundamentals.

LGB-You will find only what you seek.Many Proverbial lines on Kitco with followers that are sheep.Happy Trails

I don't know about you but all the signs are there staring you in the face. I could write a book on it now that you mention it. However all joking aside there are key indicators pointing in that direction. Just ask me and I will go into detail.

I don't know about you but all the signs are there staring you in the face. I could write a book on it now that you mention it. However all joking aside there are key indicators pointing in that direction. Just ask me and I will go into detail.

I don't know about you but all the signs are there staring you in the face. I could write a book on it now that you mention it. However all joking aside there are key indicators pointing in that direction. Just ask me and I will go into detail.

I don't know about you but all the signs are there staring you in the face. I could write a book on it now that you mention it. However all joking aside there are key indicators pointing in that direction. Just ask me and I will go into detail.

I don't know about you but all the signs are there staring you in the face. I could write a book on it now that you mention it. However all joking aside there are key indicators pointing in that direction. Just ask me and iI will go into detail.

I don't know about you but all the signs are there staring you in the face. I could write a book on it now that you mention it. However all joking aside there are key indicators pointing in that direction. Just ask me and I will go into detail.

I don't know about you but all the signs are there staring you in the face. I could write a book on it now that you mention it. However all joking aside there are key indicators pointing in that direction. Just ask me and I will go into detail.

I don't know about you but all the signs are there staring you in the face. I could write a book on it now that you mention it. However all joking aside there are key indicators pointing in that direction. Just ask me and iI will go into detail.

I don't know about you but all the signs are there staring you in the face. I could write a book on it now that you mention it. However all joking aside there are key indicators pointing in that direction. Just ask me and I will go into detail.

StarShine - RE:Where is Jimmy Rogers and who pays CNBC? You know who owns CNBC, NBC @ Rockafeller Ctr. ( Rockafellers & Goldman Sachs ) - Parent Co. General Electric. Goldman Sachs former Vice Chairman Sec. of the Treasury Robert Ruben. GE as a result of NAFTA has a plant in Mexico. Remember the Peso Crises? Ruben was appointed Sec. of T. about then, currency trading is his expertise. It really is a small world. Note: not a conspiracy just business as usual. Like they say you are within 6 people of knowing anyone in the world.

Jimmy Rodgers I missed him today too, I wonder what he would have said with all of the deflationary talk. Of course this am the markets were up when he normally would have been on.
Michael Metz was on yesterday, he has been warning of a major correction and the talking heads just laugh at him.

Elaine Garzarelli ( HAHAHA ) no offense but that's really grasping @ straws if you believe anything that she says....she can't even get away with drinkin + driving....and her tall-tale that she called the crash of "87" is pure unadulterated bull SH!T....sure ya did Elaine ( and I believe in the tooth fairy too! ) ....Aurator:the gumshoe has an answer if he would only LOOK.....

While I would not short Gold, I agreed with RJ that there are other CB's currently selling Gold, and Gold is headed lower near term.
Todays news is much worse in that we are looking at a 2 year period afterwhich the Swiss intend to dump a much larger than normal amount of CB Gold. Who wants to be long over this period?
The other reality is that other CB's will be dumping more in secret over this period. And the funds keep on shorting.
If you want a number, 200. is a very real possibility.
There are severe implications now for mining companies, and countries like south africa.

Paul: The Swiss have not devalued the franc. The dollar has already been devalued. The Swiss have not moved one little ounce. The Us has been running the printing presses for years.

GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC.
REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 10/21/97 |
-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|----------------|-----------------|----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADING| LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
( CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES ) OPEN INTEREST: 175,223
COMMITMENTS
13,909 43,706 12,623 102,442 87,675 128,974 144,004 46,249 31,219

CHANGES FROM 10/14/97 ( CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -1,707 )
-16,382 5,676 625 16,557 -8,047 800 -1,746 -2,507 39

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
7.9 24.9 7.2 58.5 50.0 73.6 82.2 26.4 17.8

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY ( TOTAL TRADERS: 116 )
25 32 6 37 48 64 85

Did the Chinese dump lots of gold to prop up Hang Seng/HK dollar??

. Statements in Mrs. Jones' sworn affidavit, first reported in
The Times last week, describe an angular curvature or bend of
the penis that can be either congenital or acquired through an
ailment called Peyronie's disease.
http://www.washtimes.com/news/news3.html#link

This market decline maybe just a correction or something more serious. In view of the fact that the $SOX index, Intel ( INTC ) , and AMD broke their respective 200 day moving averages, we are now in a world of hurt regarding the tech stocks. This is an important area of the market. Arguably, this is/was the driving force behind the 'bull' market, technology. The concern seems to stem from the Asian currency debacle. Intel announced a delay in the opening of a new chip plant today due to a slow down in demand. Traders in tech stocks fear the Asian currency debacle will slow the demand for chips. Look out below for the tech stocks if this comes true.

Can one of you experts clue me in: If Switzerland is selling gold, who is buying it and what are they using - Federal Reserve notes, yen, dinars, or any other kind of paper? Just what's going on here.

Mac: Well well well....another Cape Bretoner on our happy little discussion group ( I AM IN SHOCK! ) ......are you neighbor Eddie er somthin??
...You got mail duuude...and WELCOME...

Can YOU believe I'm still posting---under the current circumstances, that is....WW: yer welcome for the asian news I sent ya.....

I don't think the Chinese moved a grain. They are getting what they want because the West is stupid. For a few pennies Clinton gave them the key to the Whitehouse.

We have aisles of pet food, they go a step further and eat Polly the Parrot, Spot the Dog.

You see a friendly pet, they see lunch.

We see a country with an emerging market.

They see a big fat American cow - ( see lunch above )

Hi Ted - How is the ocean?Years ago I could tell the market movements----Just looking at the waves early in the morning.Please keep this confidential as LGB as the professional that he is, can no longer tolerate moon ( beans ) or any other galactic stress.Happy Trails

Coloma Kid -- Gee! Beats me! The Swiss say they'll sell 400 tons next century. But it isn't the fact. It's the news. But the news doesn't matter. They can put any line behind the 'action' that they want. If not, how could Hepcat predict these falls so far in advance? Somehow, he's got a 'chart' or something that we don't have.

LGB at 19:35 you said that silver is showing strength despite the gold performance. Well, I am not so sure about that.
Oct 4 silver closed at $5.28 gold at $334.50
Oct 24 silver closing at $4.83 gold at $309.70

Silver declined 8.52% gold declined 7.47%

Why do you think silver is doing much better than gold?!

Hey Dude....pssst...pssst...the ocean is calm......but it tells all...

Eldorado: Let's slow things down here. If the bet were for an ear yesterday. Hepcat would have lost, and to turn halfway around to hear when you talked.

I stick to my post of yesterday. Day to day, I'm not that smart. week to week, don't play the game. I prefer to watch what some here call a game of Chess in search of a White Knight, horsepucky, nothing but a very old game of Checkers. And the rubber writer's are losing no matter how dirty they play.

I can assure you that as of midnight last night, ole one ear would not be yapping nearly so much today.

On the lighter side of humor, I think someone found a gold coin in the street and took in to sell, sending everyone into a panic. Good enough excuse these days! That could make headlines!

Eldorado: Must have been an American, nobody else is that stupid.

The broader M-3 measure rose $14.3 billion to $5,248.5 billion. M-1 was off $16.8 billion to $1,049.8 billion, the Fed said.

The Fed said the four-week moving average of M-2 was $3,980.4 billion versus $3,977.2 billion in the previous week.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/23/y0004_z00_18.html

Over the space of a little more than a week, beginning next Tuesday, the market will face nearly $100 billion in new government
paper -- from bills to bonds. Every active issue will be replaced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/21/z0000_z00_28.html

Do any of you bulls remember the 1980 Mexico debt crisis??

I do.. Mexico and latin america were techinically in default on their loans to the money center banks. In order to prevent a technical fault from becomming real, the Fed flooded the market with liquidity. The effects were three fold; soaring stocks, bonds and gold. Plus a pick up in inflation.

The Aden sisters ( remember them ) made their fame by predicting 295 or 292
( I can't remember ) as the bottom for gold. The two sisters, hit it dead on. If we are going into a deflationary sprial and I think we are, I expect the fed will put the pedal to the metal and reliquilfy the banks.

Don't forget that Alan Greenspan told the Japanese that the Fed would come to their aid if they got into trouble. This was when Japan's mrkts started down from 40,000 back in the 1980's.

The question for gold bulls and bears is when this will happen.

In any case, it is my opnion that until otherwise demostrated the safest bets are 1 ) T.Bonds 2 ) short gold ( w/tight stop ) 3 ) cash

Pay very close attention to what is said and happens at the Greenspan meeting.

Best wishes and hope to change my handle to "Prancing Bull" from "Dancing Bear"

Dancing Bull

P.S. Be very wary of posters like Big Trader, Another and George Soros.

The indivuals making those posts may be hoping to keep you in the gold market out of meaness. I don't think anyone at this site trades in amounts that would be beans to an institution so the only reason for someone to make these posts is......

Ya,whats all the fuss about silver. I'm not that crazy about the poormans gold but it sure ain't no star performer. Anyway, LGB should really get it together.

2 reasons I believe Silver is showing strebgth relative to Gold. Firstly, when Gold dropped to it's $325 trading range, silver dropped to a corresponding $4.20 range. As we see now, it's much higher than that even with Gold's terrible beating today ( and the XAU's HORRIBLE beating ) .

Secondly, historically the REALLY bad days for Gold ( like today ) have driven Silver down with leveraged moves of as much as 2 to 1. Thus we'd have expected a percentage drop in Silver today, double that of Gold.

We see lot's of predictions here. Now I'll make one. Silver will end 1998 at least 40% higher than today's close. Gold on the other hand.....who knows but I'd guess it'll be flat at best.

RJ, if you're around this ones for you bud, or this buds for you, whatever. Good call, you got class, my short skirted friend. But you know that fashion always changes and the longer dresses will be coming into season, in the EMU spring perhaps or even in the long dark nights of an El Nio winter? Of this opinion still?
Perhaps some Shakespeare to grace the lurkers here?
My ears grow weary of the swinish grunting of rutting bears here.

I have bought the Prudent Bear short fund..seems a much better way to make money on the coming stock market decline, cause gold sure aint cutting it!!If the gold price continues to drop..look out, a massive deflation will be at hand..and for those in debt...would hate to have those loans at inflated old dollars and have to pay them back with those deflated new dollars!!We are at the threshold of a massive debt liquidation, and it will be global!!

Sensemilla Bud is what you've been sharing with him right? What call you talking about? Higher stock market this week?

I realize and understand there are alot of different opinions and thought patterns here, it certainly makes it more interesting, don't you think?

Could we agree on one item.

There is nothing Federal about the reserve. O'tay.

Ted-Is that calm before the storm?Are you a great Eastern King Fish?Do you swallow the humility of the Southern Ontario Cross?Never be a teacher you could lose your job or better still be a Goldbug for time never stands still.Happy Trails

This is a manipulated market if ever I've seen one. The Manipulator ( s ) know that rising gold is a sign of market instability ( Hong Kong etc. ) . Someone is dead scared that the panic in the far East will spread to the West - this would be fueled by a rising gold price. The Manipulator ( s ) is somehow keeping gold down to prevent a domino effect in the financial and stock markets. I wonder how long they can keep it up. There has to be explosive upside potential here.

The Redbook Total-Store Average in the second week of October rose to 7.4% from 5.1%
the previous week, boosting the month-to-date average to 6.3%, and the month-to-month
change for October versus September to 0.2% compared to -0.9% in the opening week of the
month.
http://lp-llc.com/cents/redbook.shtml

Tell me why someone like Another or Big Trader feeds on this site? Only if they want to ring up sales at kitco becauce kitco is Another and Big Trader? For all I know everyone here works for kitco trying to pedal gold.

Geez ya didn't have ta say it 9 times Goldfinger. OK I'll bite, tell me why we're on the verge of depression in 5000 words or less. BTW, the indicators of 1929 don't mean much now since we have a totally different type of economy. ( Post technology revolution, post 401K plans, post New deal, post SS, post NO TIE TO GOLD & CURRENCY, post diversification, post world economy, post non islolationist foreign policy, etc etc etc )

Tolerant1 -- I KNOW how hard it is to try to prognosticate one day ahead much less a week or a month, or longer! I know that my best short term shots at it can easily be a day off either way. And even though I may ( or may not ) play the numbers in front of me when they do not go according to expectation on a daily basis, I am not 'comfortable' doing so unless they meet expectation. ANYbody who can call particular numbers so far out and be ONLY a day off certainly deserves a bit of a bow, so-to-speak! I don't know how good a day type trader he would make, but for targetting......
I'm sure he'd be a welcomed contributer here except for an abrasive nature that really has grated on the eardrum, and has been cause of a lot of unnecesary postings/bandwidth by others, and by myself. He'd gain a lot more attention span and respect I think. At that, I don't believe this says anymore than has previouly been posted here by myself and others in the past.
I'm just trying to be fair, 'tis all. Deservedly so.

Ted:

Given the negative sentiment, any monkey could call gold.

Puzzling how the xau hangs in there and au tanks. Looks rough to me. Once they flip-flop, it'll get more interesting. Most likely next week. Au stocks never long lead the physical.

As for Elaine, she left her best parts back there in 1987.

used to be a pretty..pretty..pretty...pretty, gal [re Mick Jagger]

I am the Crea... I mean the Manipulator. I am a minion of the 5th column, Tri-lateral, One world, Illuminati, Soros/Rockafeller conspiracy to drive down Gold and create a New World Paper Order. We Vill see to it that Gold Vill be Deadski!

Selected deep pocket shorts are manipulating the gold price using tactics that are not available to all investors - specifically, pre-arranmged borrowing of significant quanitites of physical gold to "dump" on the market with the express purpose to drive the gold price down and corresponding repurchase arrangement at lower prices.

There is a fundamental differnce between market manipulation by a few speculators backed by CBs and everyone else who is either riding their coat-tails or getting blown-away by on an uneven playing field.

If anyone thinks as I do that there may be cause for a class action against uinfair trade practices in the gold market with particular reference to the lack of transparency and insider trading, I welcome your advice.

I propose that a class action suit ( NYC circuit ) be considered to test the ligitimacy of the trading practices we have witnessed in the gold market in the absence of fundamental changes in demand and supply.

Your advice - either publicly or privately, is kindly appreciated.

bobace@inforamp.net

cheers

DB, considering your 20:30 post, I agree, BT=Big Trouble and Another=Another Trouble. These fellows are not only fakes but bad actors to boot. Everytime we get one of these mysterious creatures on Kitco gold tanks. Very likely they are shills for the very ones who drove gold down, whether it be big market players or big government or what. No doubt they got a big kick out of feeding kitcoites just the nuggets they want to hear. Those nuggets were full of goldbug poison! Bull trappers they are, the modern reincarnation of bucket shop operators.
A man or woman is as good as their word and so they were, their forced alien semantics and mysterious prose made me sick.
BTW, DB, in light of your 20:30 post, perhaps you are not an amorous Ursidae Carnivora Sus scrofa after all.

The Hunt's played the long side and got in trouble with the law while the Golden shorts played the short side and continue to enjoy freedom from the market surveillance cops.

Good men and woman stand idle pretending that a fair market in gold exists while a few bucaneers with inside knowledge raid the market at will. The Emporer has no clothes. The gold market isn't a transparent level playing field and all of us long suckers - for those who can't stand the truth - have sat idle while the looting continues.

We deserve what the gold market has laid before us.

Anyone interested in a level playing field ?


Cheers

Re: Clinton's ex-lover could give Jones suit novel turn ( Clinton's bent d*ck ) . Lots of men have an angular penis. I about 25% or more. I don't like Paula Jone's chances on that one.....We are talking about a sideways droop, not a vertical droop.

Roebear -- Personally, I think it's Greenspan. Everytime he opens his mouth, gold tanks! And immediately at that! I think that when he's talking his 'irrational exuberance', it's code words for tanking gold! So, beware again on the 29th?

ELDORADO:
I have been thinking along those lines too. How come:
1. we were warned about Hepcat eing a disinformation carrier
2. he forecasted 310AU almost to the right date
Does he have information we don't ?
Assuming that there are no coincidences, what is the feedback from this forum ?

Re: Clinton's ex-lover could give Jones suit novel turn ( Clinton's bent d*ck ) . Lots of men have an angular penis ( about 25% or more ) . I don't like Paula Jones' chances on that one.....We are talking about a sideways droop, not a vertical droop. Not to mention the drooping posts....

Bob ( @...class action suit anyone ? ) Sounds interesting, but people end up dead in a park for less. The story behind the formation and continued existance of the "Federal" Reserve is a prime example.

Monsieur Eldorado: You do service for the cause of being an honorable gentleman. You are of course correct.

Who ever you are, where ever you are. be it known that I, tolerant1, acknowledge one hell of a call.

Bravo!

LGB - your sarcasm is not called for.

there was a common thread amongst the mightiest
investors----

morgan, rockefeller, getty, templeton.....

they bought the market ( s ) that no one else would buy.
the over-looked, over-sold, LOW markets.

budget it in. care-fully, and with a purpose.
gen patton, wwII put it quite succintly........
"the best defense is strong offense!"

get off the defensive posture, attack, and attack
again. even those with meager means can accumulate
various forms of pm's. stand on the shoulders of the
giants, and do as they did, maybe you will have a bean-stalk
all your own some day.

7 days and counting......time is short. the ant awaits.........

cherokee!; ) looking-back-ward-----to-see-forward-

It gets worse. I had the nerve to question who Another was and where he came from to make such intriguing claims. The result was that one of our mysterious kitcoites - the guys that change their handles every so often - posted some sh!t suggesting that I was a Nazi goon or somesuch crapola.

I agree, we get these story-tellers on-line and a few more of opur brothers and sisters get sucked into the vortex and we run a stream of mud slinging threads between the false leaders new flock and those of us who are straight shooters - however right or wrong.

Cheers.

You folks don't know the HALF of it!! You think Hillary made a 10,000 percent return on Cattle futures without manipulation? I know all about manipulation and who's behind it & look what happened to me!!

( LG... I mean VINCE Foster )

Bob -- the difference between the Hunts and 'them' is that the Hunts wern't one of 'them'. The Hunts had BIG enough bucks that they could capture the market. 'THEY' had to change the rules to make them stop it. It might have been quite a different story if there had been more BIG players in it, or if the Hunts had much deeper pockets. I guess the Hunts were being too disruptive to their plans. But who really knows the full and complete story.

LGB, RJ called a CB sale that would knock gold down. I believe he mentioned the $300 range. He also said some other things but I will have to pull up the file to be accurate. In any case, and it was one of his last posts before the supposed seer Le Pussy nagged him off the forum, his post ( RJ's, NOT Pep le Peu ) rang the truth bell for me, which rings when it confirms what I have been actually seeing. Like most people, I spend too much time seeing what I am thinking instead of thinking about what I am seeing. I posted a thanks to RJ that day and I sold most of my gold stocks and even some silver hoping to buy back later and cheaper.
The highs you infer from my allusion to long skirts refer not to the stock market but to RJ stating that in the long term he would be bullish sometime on gold. To make matters simpler I will dig up his post and repost it.

If gold is at a twelve year low, then why is the xau higher than it was when gold was much higher. Someone is buying the stocks at low prices but at proportionally higher prices in relation to the price of gold. Just two weeks ago the xau was lower and gold was higher. Does anyone know why RYO held up today with such high volumn? and what does Prechter have to say about the stock market and gold. Thanks

Who knows the whole story? Obviously HepCat does. Everyone thinks that he and I and 3 or 4 others are "moles" here and we're in on the "Real" behind the scenes info. Ohhh so much intrigue... so much mystery.... if only you all knew the REAL powers behind the scene..but I ain't tellin, no way, no how, I'll end up like Vince!

Highrise: God exists everything else is negotiable. We already been ripped-off BIG-TIME by a few deep pocket traders who own the gold market. It only takes a few good people to organize and get their sh!t together before we get the collective sh!t kicked out of us.

It's either kill or be killed my friend. This ain't no picnick. The freedom of markets and playing in a level playing field is at stake.

Cheers

Here it is:
Lest the glee run amuck:
Gold has gone to these levels three times since July, so we are not treading unfamiliar ground. Higher prices could encourage producers to lock in more forward sales. 200+ tons sold by European CB ( Germany, France? ) over the last few weeks. Gold will make new lows before the year is out.
George Cole maintains gold will not enter a bull market until investor demand increases. All I do all day long is talk to individual investors. This small and unscientific sampling still shows very little interest in gold. American investors look on gold as a dirty and undeserving mongrel dog that has been under the porch far too long to trust its goodwill now. More likely it is a rabid beast that will greet your curious peeks under the porch with great snarls and foaming snappings of the jaw. I will add to new shorts from here to 331 spot. Above that, a quick rally to 440 should offer new opportunities to place new shorts.
Silver is acting very strange. Sold short 100,000 oz today at 4.78. Everything says silver should drop soon, but the warehouse stocks have me a bit concerned. I suspect there is more silver than these numbers would imply. It could be sitting in a warehouse right next door to the
COMEX, or sitting on docks in New York or London. Warehouse stocks have dropped below 100 million oz. I am not including Wilmington Trust stocks in this figure. When comparing COMEX stocks of 250 million plus oz in 1996, remember, this did not include the
48 million added from Wilmington Trust in January.

Sold Most of my PL this week for nice profits, I might miss a bit of profit here, but I will buy it back below 420, 410 if I can get it.
Don't let the gold glee sweep you all away too soon, this has all the earmarks of a bull trap.
Don't get caught.

Return to Kitco Homepage

Date: Fri Oct 24 1997 17:24 Bob M ( gold@bitterroot.net ) ID#26059:
DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!DEFLATION, DEFLATION, DEFLATION!
I Second this proposition. Now how about some feedback or treatise on short & long term bonds ( both short & medium term return likelihood ) in the face of continued falling interest rates. How much risk are in Bonds at the moment and for the medium term for investors???? Thank you in advance for your views ( which I am trying to formulate ) !

Sinclair -- It's really more a matter of concentration. It is really HARD to listen to the 'music' when it is surrounded with 'noise'.

Got it Roebear, but all the "big" market Guru's have been harping on that very theme for a year or more now. More CB sales to come, no end in sight, no hope for Gold. ( In the near term ) This would put RJ into "their" camp wouldn't it? That's all we read about in every Gold article printed in the mainstream. Not exactly a "breakthrough" in thinking there.

I happen to agree with the common wisdom on this one, and I think there is some concerted effort to keep Gold low, but rather than some nefarious "conspiracy" I think it is starightforward. Namely, related to the EU's desire to diminish investor confidence in Hard money and other instruments so that they can "Save the world" with the new "Eurodollar" and make THAT the new standard of currency to which we will all be required to Bow.

Its the same game just different side of the market. I don't care if the CBs are in on it the fact remains that we don't have transparency and we don't have a level playing field. What's good for the Hunt's is good for the short Bucaneers in the current gold dispora. Death to the inside traders !

Cheers

Here's a few reasons for a depression. Not all a few. Want more you have to ask. 1. Massive credit binge, debt and built up excesses for the last 70 years 2. Tech has driven this economy and is now going into contraction taking down with it the financial house of cards. Too many goods chasing the same dollar = deflation and competiton coming in from all corners of the world. 3. The fed can't react quick enough to stop it and if they do then it could turn into an inflationary depression. Dollars would be worthless. 4. Moral values have eroded to a level of an empire in decent not heading into prosperity. All gay communities is our answer to build stronger families huh. Crowds puffing on cigars just like before the end of prosperity in 1929. More perverts and sex maniacs running around than ever before and broken homes and families. Coruption in the White House and those that support it ( the people of this country ) . We are a warped society and sooner rather than later we will pay the price. I have alot more to say so all you have to do is ask.

Kitco is really a front for the Swiss goverment. After all someone has to be persuaded to buy all that gold.

Yes Roebear, I miss even R.J. though I have great personal animosity toward him, ( due to a number of very nasty unprovoked posts he directred my way ) , I think he had plenty of metals market savvy to contribute. Now if he'd just get over that Ego/Spoiled brat syndrome and have the balls to post regardless of whatever heat might be in the kitchen, I'm sure he'd be welcomed by all.

Just got finished posting the whole smear, Gold charts, commentary etc. at http://www.the-privateer.com

If you want a one word description for what is being done to Gold, try "venal". Here's how my dictionary defines it:

Ready to be bought over for lucre or to sacrifice honour or principle for sordid considerations; mercenary, hireling, sordid.

All the people who are in the markets expecting 34% annual gains for a decade and who think that the govt. guarantees their stocks are in for a horrible awakening. And, of course, none of them would now think of protecting themselves with Gold, not after what's happened overnight.

Tjought I check out Devil's Advocate tonight...Cheers

LGB - your 21:19 describes manipulation. Thanks for the apology.

More RJ 5.15 December silver is the key. They will make a run at it on the open tomorrow, if it breaks through, 5.40 in a heartbeat. Got caught with 100K oz silver short at 5.78. I posted here a few times that silver had an explosive upside. The only short I put in was for a client who has 200K oz @ 5.03 that we've been stuck with for four months, so we made 60K on the long ,and lost 30K on the short. A failure here would let me out of my latest short with modest profits. Beware the bull, warehouse stocks were up today, and I can see nothing else to put a rosy face on silver. I would, however, rejoice in a quick rally to the mid 5's. I could get out of my more expensive silver before gold drags it down.
Gold is ripe for another short. I have not changed my view that gold will make new lows this
year. The rumors of CB sales out of Europe are not just rumors. There is an announcement coming soon, who is the culprit? I still think the Germans have a hand in the latest round of selling, we should know soon. As for the rest, I took profits on most of my PL and am largely in cash now.
JTFlick, not me who posted the XAU/gold chart. I would still like to banter some physics with you and niner. I haven't had much time to spend on this here group of late. I'm moving to Irvine, California on the 8th of October. Like all moves, this is an all consuming task. The worst part is I will have to break down the computer system so I might be out of touch for a few days. With luck, I will box it up the night before the move and reassemble the next day. Forget the kitchen, forget the bathrooms, never mind unpacking, the computer and the stereo come first.
Tomorrow is one of those days I'm going to have to be at the office at the open, seven and one half hours from now. Don't feel a bit tired, but 4 am comes early in any part of the world.
Enough for this eve, good luck on all your trades.

LGB:

Don't get carried away. Silver is inextricably connected to gold. Check history. Move against this law at your own risk. Silver's nuts. It works on its own for a while, then its manipulated, then you get hosed. The metal that works is Palladium.

For those of you missing G S Cole, here's a selection
of posts ( one/day ) starting from October 2, the earliest
day available now that the search function has been
given up for good, and just after he made his now
infamous assertion that the gold bull was underway,
and he had been correct in calling the bottom in gold
and the top in the Dow.

Two striking things ( among many to follow ) of note:
1. George S Cole sure has a lot of different I.D. numbers.
2. George S Cole's take on where stocks or gold is
going changes day-to-day.

Date: Thu Oct 02 1997 16:58
George Cole ( fear ) ID#430205:
The fact that so many on this thread are ready to turn tail and run on the first reaction reinforces my bullish stance on the gold complex.

Date: Fri Oct 03 1997 13:28
George Cole ( new paradigm? ) ID#430205:
The Dow and the long bond have lost much of their gains, but the yellow still is very strong. Further evidence that a BRAND NEW PARADIGM is developing for the PMs. Even when the Dow was up 110 points this morning, gold was up a bit as well. A few weeks ago gold would have tanked badly if stocks and bonds had soared.

XAU up nicely today, but low volume suggests we will pull back again before the next leg of this golden bull develops. It is OUR turn to buy the dips.

Date: Sat Oct 04 1997 15:18
George Cole ( upside potential ) ID#430205:
Dundee: You have it right my friend! Since gold is cheaper now relative to financial assets than at any time since the early 1970s the upside potential is explosive. BB Fisher's forecast of $400-$500 by January may well be right on target.
I am sticking with my forecast of $400+ during the first half of 1998.

Date: Mon Oct 06 1997 22:12
George Cole ( the future ) ID#430205:
Byron: Agree with you on the need to close those gaps in bullion and the XAU:

All: To set the record straight: Unlike Puetz I did not predict an October crash. I did forecast an August peak in the Dow and did argue that an October crash was a real POSSIBILITY.

BTW, with each leg of this bull running about half as long as the previous leg, the next downward lurch should commence around the end of this month. It could be anything from another modest correction to a full fledged crash.
My best guess -- a mini crash ( Dow down 1,000 points in a week ) followed by a protracted bear.

Date: Tue Oct 07 1997 23:31
George Cole ( the Dow ) ID#430205:
Newbie: My downside for the Dow is 30%+. But that will be from higher levels. Dow should reach at least 8500 this month before hitting the skids in November. If the November decline turns out to be just another correction, look for the Dow to approach 10,000 by year-end, before tanking big time.

Date: Wed Oct 08 1997 21:59
George Cole ( major trend ) ID#430205:
LARRYN: XAU and bullion did look much better on the close. And modest volume does raise the possibility of whipsaws. Nonetheless, the major trend now is UP. Time to buy the dips.

Date: Thu Oct 09 1997 12:17
George Cole ( market action ) ID#430205:

Gold stocks holding up well ( so far ) in view of $3.00 drop in bullion. As I have said several times, this is the time to be buying the dips. Very dangerous to chase rallies at this stage -- especially when upside volume is lacking.

Date: Fri Oct 10 1997 17:11
George Cole ( Gold and Japan ) ID#430205:
Gold action today very encouraging. Bullion up 2 bucks. If it had followed the bear market pattern of declining further after big selloffs it would have dropped another $2.00 or so. Nice rebounds in gold stocks as well. I do not have the temerity to declare this shakeout over as yet. But I am quite confident it is just that -- a shakeout and not a resumption of the bear.

Date: Sat Oct 11 1997 08:30
ROB ( The Gartman Letter ) ID#40883:
Bart And Group- I recieved my daily copy of the Gartman Letter yesterday
morning and found some interesting comments. In his precious metals
section he made the following comments.
" During the day we monitor a web-page/chat line for gold trader's
( www.kitco.com, for those of you who are interested ) , and in the past
two weeks, the " volume" and excitement amongst the gold traders has
been more than palpable... it had become almost hysterical. We recalled
our old trading philosophy: when they're yelling were selling. The metals
traders were yellen yesterday morning following the Buba's decision.
their collective yelling was wrong."
Date: Sat Oct 11 1997 08:44
George Cole ( sentiment ) ID#430205:
BOB: Look like some are using KITCO as a contrary indicator, Big mistake because sentiment on this site does not mirror the general gold trader sentiment at all. Sounds like that letter is focused on very short-term trading, not on catching a trend and sticking with it.

Date: Sun Oct 12 1997 13:00
George Cole ( CB sales ) ID#430205:

The fact that gold stocks went down very little when bullion plunged $6 Thursday is a very bullish signal. If the bear market were still underway, FSAGX would have skidded 3% or more, not 1%.

Date: Tue Oct 14 1997 16:34
George Cole ( November Surprise? ) ID#42953:
Allen: Your fair value targets of Dow 5500 and gold $460 are eminently reasonable. Good chance of reaching them by late 1998.

Stock rally today was not impresive considering sharp drop in bond yields. But the primary direction still is up. This will continue as long as the number of new lows remains minuscule. October looks like a good month for paper, but be ready for a November surprise.

Date: Wed Oct 15 1997 15:37
George Cole ( $310 ) ID#42953:
Somebody here is quite sure the Dow will hit 8300 and gold $310 by October 23. Agree on the Dow disagree on gold. But if gold does perchance hit $310 by the magic date, that will be the call of the year. Nothing wishy washy about these projections; we will know their accuracy or lack of same quite soon.

Date: Wed Oct 15 1997 16:33
George Cole ( insults ) ID#42953:
Hepcat: All your insults mean nothing to me. I will not stoop to your level. Since I am on this site to learn as well as opine, I still hope you will emlighten us on how you arrived at your earlier projection of $325 and your current projection of $310.

Date: Thu Oct 16 1997 07:38
George Cole ( market action ) ID#42953:

I frankly have no idea where gold bullion will be trading on October 23 or any other particular day for that matter. But the trend is gradually changing and the smart players will be buying the gold stocks on weakness.

Date: Fri Oct 17 1997 17:32
G S Cole ( the greenback ) ID#42932:
Panda: Gold's action indeed leaves much to be desired considering the Dow's steep drop. But the dollar is strong today and that has a much bigger impact on the yellow than daily stock market fluctuations.

BTW, this stock market decline probably won't carry too far unless and until the greenback tanks as well.

Date: Sat Oct 18 1997 08:31
G S Cole ( market outlook ) ID#42932:
Ted: Agree with your take on the markets. Crash unlikely in the near future, but a SEVERE BEAR MARKET is in store once the ongoing topping process is completed. Downward movement will be slow in the early phsases, but should pick up as prices decline. I am looking for a drop of at least 25% by late 1998. Something akin to the 1969-70 bear marker.

Date: Sun Oct 19 1997 13:07
George Cole ID#42953:
This site sure is much more pleasant without Hepcat. Not because he is a gold bear ( that has been the correct position for a long time ) but because he is such an obnoxious SOB.

Date: Sun Oct 19 1997 16:01
George Cole ( Monday ) ID#42953:
Somebody here predicted that gold will be wacked Monday. Maybe so, maybe no. But I hope so. I have only a modest position in gold shares now and want to buy more as cheaply as possible.

Date: Sun Oct 19 1997 21:34
Peter ( GEORGE S COLE your 16:01 post ) ID#225157:
Soooo George all this time that you have been proclaiming the Gold Bull to be here, and the enormous upside that will
occur, you having been holding a small position in Gold Stocks and indeed hoping for Gold to continue to get whacked.
George you have lost a lot of credibility with that post!!!!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 01:34
Reify ( @Don't know why ) ID#396137:
COMMENTS!!
1 ) Date: Sun Oct 19 1997 21:34
Peter ( GEORGE S COLE your 16:01 post ) ID#225157:
Soooo George
Peter- Just what do you hope to accomplish with your negative comments,
about one of our more knowledgable, and wiser, posters???
Are you a perfect bottom picker? Do you have a track record for us all
to examine?
Have you heard of averaging down and up?
I believe if you think about some of what GSC has been saying, you
wouldn't be posting such comments.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:13
Peter ( Reify ) ID#225157:
Yes, I have been thinking about what George has been posting. I find it amusing ( and somewhat disturbing ) that someone has been constantly posting about this emanate Gold Bull and the proclamation on August 8 1997 that the Gold Bull has arrived. To now post that he is holding little Gold Stocks and is hoping for Gold to get whacked some more.

Date: Tue Oct 21 1997 08:45
George Cole ( gold bull ) ID#42953:
RJ: Glad you decided to come back. Beginning to look like you are right about the gold bull not getting underway in earnest until early 1998.

Date: Wed Oct 22 1997 18:06
George Cole ( buying the dips ) ID#42953:
Gold stocks did quite nicely today in view of bullion's 30 cent drop. In fact the gold stocks have held up exceedingly well since bullion began to slide a few weeks ago. Looks like strong accumulation to me. Buying the dips still is the correct strategy for the gold stocks and mutual funds

Date: Thu Oct 23 1997 07:58
George Cole ( Hepcreep ) ID#42953:
Looks like Hepcreep made one of the worst forecasts ever. Dow 8300 and Gold $310 by Oct 23. Don't make me laugh.

Date: Thu Oct 23 1997 08:03
Ted ( @ Hepcat the great market predictor ( ??? ) ) ID#364147:
Let's see....10/23= GOLD 3-1-0 and DOW 8300...Today is the 23rd BOY ( who writes so pretty but can't do anything else but be an ass-wipe ) Hey BOY,I still need a servant....you interested yet??HAHAHAHA....P.S.-yer such a card ( HAHAHA )

Date: Fri Oct 24 1997 07:03
George Cole ( thoughts ) ID#42953:
Strong bounce in HK and spoos are up 11 bucks on globex. Bullion down three bucks. As I argued yesterday, stocks will not go down big time as long as the greenback is strong. And gold will not mount a sustained up move until the dollar bull is history.

That said the continued strong action of the gold stocks relative to bullion does suggest a 1993 type scenario. As APH has pointed out gold stocks maintained most of their gains from late 1992 to early 1993 as bullion made a new low. Then both took off.

Still see all the recent action as part of the topping process for stocks and the bottoming process for gold. A few more months of this see saw action probable before stocks break decisively down and gold turns decisively up.

Date: Fri Oct 24 1997 08:10
George Cole ( Swiss selling? ) ID#42953:
Milhouse: Agree entirely with your recent post, but would add that a well financed propaganda campaign and cheap CB gold loans have made the gold bear more severe than it would otherwise have been. Let the Swiss dump it all. The faster the better. I want to buy CHEAP.

My previous post didn't seem to work, sorry for double. Just got finished posting the whole smear, Gold charts, commentary etc.

If you want a one word description for what is being done to Gold, try "venal". Here's how my dictionary defines it:

Ready to be bought over for lucre or to sacrifice honour or principle for sordid considerations; mercenary, hireling, sordid.

All the people who are in the markets expecting 34% annual gains for a decade and who think that the govt. guarantees their stocks are in for a horrible awakening. And, of course, none of them would now think of protecting themselves with Gold, not after what's happened overnight.

PS My URL is http://www.the-privateer.com

Goldfinger -- You've got a good handle on it. But just remember, they'll do whatever they need to, or can manage to do, to prop up their precious paper. And be sure that the alternative will NOT particularly be welcomed! Needful and forthcoming, no doubt, but very very painful when it arrives! We should be very careful what we 'wish for'! But, knowing what must come behooves the rest of us to get our houses/foxholes in order. Continue to expect the worse for the metals. But the day soon comes, I think, when that Tsunami comes ashore! Maybe sooner than some think. Maybe not. But I would not want to be one minute too late in having that foxhole done!

DONALD: Thanks for your comments on Govt Bonds. Will corporates be any different? If interest rates really plummet, which I fear they will, the ability to pay repayments will improve. The aspect of Govt's falling over is of great concern to me, & has been for some time. Tax revenues will also plummet. So would corporate bonds actually be safer than Govt bonds? Not ALL businesses will disappear. I came across a 200 year chart of interest rates last week. Rates formed a huge head in the 1980's ( 15% ) , and has been dropping ever since. The world average over 200 years has been about 4%, and can drop to 2% during extreme periods. Makes 6% look quite high at the moment. We may get a little bump up like during the Mexico drama in 1994. but will continue going down. So deflation in IN, and rates are heading DOWN. Technically makes Bonds look very GOOD. It is just the issue of security of the borrower the burning concern. We are really noticing the move in interest rates as we play around in that area in Australia. Unbelievable stuff, but it is happening, & a depression scenario demands it. I FEAR bonds ( ala 1994 ) , but they may just carry the day while the rates keep dropping.

Goldfinger re; your 2040 ROTFL. The one thing I hadn't considered is that everyone except me, is a shill trying to hawk gold/silver to me. Whooo!

Re BT and others. All their posts have have implied inside info on what institutions and indivuals are doing over a period of years and countries. Their posts are not some specific event that has just taken place or will take place but a front row seat on what people and institutions in differnt continents and times are planning. I suppose if you worked for a gov't spy agency and had access to data that wasn't in your dept you could know this. Or perhaps the Posters could be Bob Rubin.

And surly, I couldn't fail to notice that the bullion markets went down after the posts were made.

This is why I think malice is their motive and not help

Lyndon Larouch at ( executive intelligence review ) says that the oligarchy of the world is accumulating gold and other natural resources

digdeep: Boeing running short on materials.
Good thing there is not a war.

Looking at one of my favorite web site, I noticed the activity for the Feb98. Between the 350 and 360 mark on the call side there was about 12,000 options purchased or sold today. Could there be something hidden in our future.

Sig: The following makes for interesting reading relative to your post below on the relationship between gold and silver. Hope you find it useful.

http://www.cpmgroup.com/msimon_auvsag.html

CPM

The Outlook for and

Inter-Relationship Between Gold and Silver

Presented by:

Michael A. Simon

Director

Looks like you have a file on George! OK, Hep, you had a ringer on 325 ( please, I'm being nice, even, don't start! ) and it appears you were as close as it gets on 310. 8300, well, 2 for 3 I won't complain about. My main objection to your calls is you give no reasons for them. Please explain why you cannot explain. Otherwise, I must conclude that you really cannot give your reasons for your calls, with all the ramifications that might entail.

I don't care what you say about me, but do not say
that I chased RJ off of this forum. This is exactly
how it got started that I chased oldman off of this
forum. It is very convenient, and very wrong, to
blame me when someone up and leaves in a huff.

Let's dissect this:

a. Upon RJ's immediate departure, he said
he was upset because he had posted something
about India that generated only small-
minded attacks. I was one of at least
three different people attacking him. I
was not the first person to attack him,
and when he said he was leaving, I was not
among those anonymous posters who wished
him a very unpleasant farewell. I will be
happy to say which posts were mine, and
I would advise you to ask Bart for confirmation
if you don't believe me.

2. When RJ came back on, he said he was
offended by the sex posts in addition to
the India incident. I did not start the
sex posts, I was merely responding in a
very basic way to a very basic Geoff,
who continued to harass me with childish
baiting after other people said it was
probably in his best interest to stop.
Geoff was not sophisticated enough to
catch on, and I tired of it. Significantly,
RJ, who was so offended by these posts,
went back to search for them, and couldn't
find them. So they couldn't have had
that much of an negative impact on him.
Remember, he was the one who was often
called on his bathroom humor, so it seems
a little unlikely to suddenly convert
to prudishness. Also, you will remember
that RJ specifically stated he was
tired of shadow boxing with people
not on his level. Where did he
specifically state: I am leaving
because hepcat chased me off? Indeed,
he would never admit to that, since
he claimed not to ever bother with
people of such marginal ability.

Finally, one of the reasons people
leave this sight is because their
legend is often bigger when the
leave then if they continue to post.
RJ had been caught in some
inconsistencies just like oldman,
and you have to wonder if maybe
it would have been more uncomfortable
to stick around and try to explain
the inconsistencies away instead
of just letting them fade away.

RJ made the right call on gold,
no doubt about it. But he was real
shifty about how he was always on
the right side of silver and to hear
him explain his way out of that
morass would definitely be worth
a return visit.

BBL.

Hep my friend....you only missed the Dow forcast by almost 600 POINTS ( HAHAHA ) and the 24th ain't the 23rd---but I still love ya!!!

Hep, that post of yours blew me away! I try and be a straight shooter, I will agree on what you have said in as much as you are not solely to blame for "chasing" RJ off site. No doubt you did irritate the heck out of him though.

Bob: 21:20 post on the playing field - I totally agree sir.

I have been reading these post for some time and have decided to post a statement and observation about the times we are about to enter together.

"THESE ARE NOT THE TIMES TO MEASURE HOW MUCH WE WILL MAKE BUT RATHER HOW LITTLE WE LOSE."

I believe there are those of us who can see final outcomes based on history, however the world has never seen circumstances such as derivitives and new world order thinking that will cause unanticipated short term outcomes. We are in uncharted short term currents that will prove very costly.

Can someone make me feel better about the silver I bought today. I reall y need a little inspiration. I've been watching this forum for about a year now and I thought I had about got the hang of the game. Market down = Metals up. Then comes the last few days. Now I'm scared. I was gritting my teeth when I wrote that check today but I decided to follow my gut. I can say this, if I had witnessed the last few days a few years ago I would never have got in PM's. Yet, for some reason I feel that those butterflies I got when writing that check today was exactly what "they" wanted me to be feeling, whoever "they" are. I feel like a junkie.
I tell myself that If Silver will just go back to 5.30 an oz. I'll sell and forget this web site ever existed but I know I won't. Damn! I feel like a squirrel in the middle of the road running back and forth unable to decide which way to run.

SIG: Was she pretty in "87"..hard ta believe...Poorboys: startin ta look like the calm before the storm......gold @ 3-6-9 @ 10:36 AM 2/11/98 ( whatta bunch of crap... ) as bad as Another+ Big Trader---you guys will believe anything......if you believe it is anything more than a lucky guess....Yeah, this is just sour grapes--I lost so much money today I'm snappin....LGB: What the hell is wrong with Sensemilla bud???

Silverbug: Relax, one day does not a market make. If you bought physical stuff, sit tight. If you bought stock, sit tight.

But keep your ear to the rail so you can hear the train coming. Silver is a volitile little fellow. Learn to enjoy a little foreplay, sit back and take it easy.

LGB: You can pick on people, you can pick on markets, but I must draw the line in defense of the bud. Good gravy man, have you lost your marbles?

Ha! Hep you and I crossed posts, gold tanks and I didn't get burned! Amazing day! I am going for that bottle now!; ) Look, I don't care what you think about me, but after that post of yours I have decided that I care about you. Now I know that this won't make you all warm and fuzzy, but you rang that bell like RJ did, and I apologize for any rudeness I may have shown you.

Ta Sydney+ a little gambling.....

Eldo, thanks for the info. The way I'm seeing things gold could go as low as $200 if something meaningfull happened in the markets to manipulate there. As unlikely as it may seem it could be a reality due to the CB's having the upper hand. My objectives is to hang on if and when it goes to zero. That's gonna be a long time but like you said lets be carefull what we wish for. The only problem is I can't see the excesses in this economy continuing to much longer without a crisis of some kind.

SILVERBUG: Diversify. You need a few sidetracks up your sleeve.
AUSTRALIAN RESOURCE SHARE INDEX: Dropping like a rock. Unbelievable.
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/res.html

Qestor: Wise counsel. ...... Bob M., earlier today, echoed a sentiment I expressed back in March or April. That is; that TA of a manipulated market operating in a low volume atmosphere is pretty much a fool's game. I think today points out just how vulnerable a support level can be when there are too few people providing support.

just for the record------sinsemillia-----really!!
ssibfatikb!; )

On a day like today this Joke Site will help a bit. http://www.calvin.edu/~kvbeek/cgi-bin/thejokes.cgi

Earl I remember your post, I believe I have it on the wall. A few times I have looked at it and kicked myself for not remembering it at the right time. I suppose then that we should do the TA and FA on the manipulators instead of the manipulated?

All:

Without being privy to inside information and not having a crystal or hair ball from which to prognosticate, I promulgate the following.

First, in the not too distant future we shall see a concerted effort by the other ( non central bank ) suppliers of gold to help the price of their product. Some will announce shutdowns, some will buy in hedges, some may even consider a cartel. When the wolves are at your door, you don't open it wide and let them in.

Second, the market gyrations which began with such a 'small' event as the speculative attack on the Thai currency, are going to get bigger. The end result is going to be a very nasty decline in worldwide stock markets, sooner rather than later. No matter what the spin doctors spin, there are just going to be enough folks looking to take a few chips off the table so that a real problem is going to occur. The way markets unravel is not so much from a deluge of selling as from a lack of buying interest. The motivated sellers, however few, will find the clearing level for their things. If this level is significantly below the current level the seeds are sown for a major event. As has been amply demonstrated in many markets over the few weeks, a buying vacuum can occur our of nowhere.

Today's gold action was demonstration of the vacuum effect. Being a holder of gold I hope it will be the last one. I believe that the action in gold is somewhat a replay of 87 in the sense that all assets initially will get whacked in a general asset decline. When faced with a margin call people tend to sell what they have the least confidence in and also what is the most liquid. Gold certainly qualifies in this respect.

Is gold worth buying at 310. You bet. Consider how this 'event' in the gold market has been played up. Consider the gnashing of teeth, the beating of small chests, and all the other emotional outbursts assocated with this drop. Now reflect upon the actual decline. The spike bottom in July was around 314. The first basing area was around 320. We are now at 310. If you bought at 320 you are down 3%. A little less than what the 80 million mutual fund holders experienced in the last 2 days.

If you're waiting for the gold market to rally before buying it you just might buy in again at 330 only to see it fall back to 310. You could do this a few times and lose a lot of money. Buying and holding from these levels is a 'safe' play. Over a years time there is no way that these prices are sustainable unless the CB's dishoard great quantities of gold. Since the actual sale of real gold by real ( G7 etc ) CB's would require referendums or other such political action there is no way this will occur. Why? Easy, if the central banks truly are worried about the price of gold because of its implications with regard to peoples confidence in the 'system' then the very last thing they would want to do is raise the profile of gold to the point where people could actually vote upon its disposal. Imagine the horror if the people who's gold it was that they were disposing actually said no.

Having gotten that goldbug stuff off my chest, I shall end with another impassioned plea about my core hypothesis which is stuff, gold just being one of the crowd. The only deflation we are going to see is in financial assets. First stocks. Then bonds. The stocks are going down for no reason other than the house of cards lost a corner in Asia and the whole structure is unstable. With valuations stretched all over the globe there need be no reason for prices to decline other than a wee bit of fear. Once the stocks have tanked the CB's will play their liquidity card. In those places ( actually most of the world ) where the economies are humming, they are going to hum a lot more. Throw in a little El Nino, a little safe haven buying, a corner in silver and its going to be a grand old time. If there is ever going to be a deflation it will be after this phase when the central banks try to catch up with the inflation curve and slam on the brakes too fast. In any event its a long way off.

Ted - Are we going with the 23rd or the 24th?
If we're going with the 23rd, then I wasn't off
on the Dow by 600. That's using today's close,
Ted, the 24th. If you're referring to the
updated prediction provided by my superiors
last night, then I am completely correct to
the dollar amount on gold, and that would indeed
be "the call of the year" according to your friend
George S. Cole. You can't have it both ways.
In fact, Ted, you can't have it any way, because
I said Dow to 8300 and gold to 310 on or before
10/23/97, and after pounding that in for about
two weeks, I shortened it to 10/23/97 because
I figured people got the idea. You weren't
going to hold me to a Dow of exactly 8300
and gold of exactly 310 on 10/23/97, Ted,
because I wasn't going to hold myself to
that, and because you don't pay me enough
to be your savant. Had the Dow gone to
8300 on 10/15/97, for example, I would have declared
victory, and I think most people on this
site would have acknowledged ( some grudgingly,
some not at all ) that I was correct in
my prediction. I said I was wrong in my
prediction of 8300, but I was "off" by
at most 200, not 600, if we are talking
degrees. I was also off in my prediction
in gold by $10 ( gold was around $320 back
in September when I made the 8300-310
call ) according to the strict definition
of on or before 10/23/97. But golly, Ted,
your starting to sound like Mooney, who
we don't see much around these parts
anymore under that handle. I shamed him
into hiding because he kept coming
back on and trying to discount what
I had predicted about gold and about
Flag. Ted, fire away, because I
will revel in my incorrectness,
and the other people on this site
will always wonder which form
of incorrectness lost them more
money - My incorrectness or
George S. Cole's incorrectness.

Roebear: re your : 20:27 post. It wasn't me who posted the XAU/gold charts -- haven't figured how to do this yet with WFW 3.11 ( don't have Windows 95 yet ) - but I did post on the XAU/gold indicator ( useful for long term trends -- like a risk indicator ) . I'm looking forward to some Physics posts from you. I'm impressed by your posts on the gold market - as far as I'm concerned you understand these markets as well as RJ, the Oldman, George Cole, and D.A. It is clear to me that most of the best advice is coming from those of us who are equally at home trading in gold bear and bull markets. By the way, I may have missed some Kitcoites, as I have only been posting for three weeks, and investing for about three years.


My only real investment success with gold has been when it is going up short or long term. Not successful with long term bear markets yet. I must admit I got caught in this sudden drop ( bear market bull trap ) today, with all the currency uncertainty. I have done extensive studies of gold price behavior, and had concluded that it usually went up during world-wide currency crises. Not this time unfortunately. I should have realized that we have a gold bug as a Fed Chairman ( remember Ayn Rand days? ) -- what would any of us do if the market tanked? I'd do exactly what happened today -- "sell" gold ( not the real stuff ) . I don't think AG would sell the real stuff -- but he is in a world different from his early days.

My personal opinion is that we have reached bottom with gold at 310, and that it should go back up soon -- but my advice is worth just how much one has paid to get it! By the way -- I'm not sure all the stuff from BigTrader and Another was nonsense -- they never said when and how much! It is very clear to me that the process they referred to is being used to control the gold price -- and eventually will fail to work. But it looks like the system is still very much alive!

poster@2227--so who are you gumby? no garbanzos huh?

D.A. - I have to defer to you, because you have
got to have a buttload of money to maintain your
position in gold. I would argue that the swiftness
of today's action portends a further washout
( it did in July, remember?, and it was the same
Friday-Monday scenario ) rather than a absolute bottom,
but I'm not tied to that position, and I hope
your eloquence echoes your assuredness and both
bolster the market, or this site is going to get ugly.

THE LATEST RAMBLINGS OF LAROUCHE...

"EIR Talks" interviews Lyndon LaRouche.
October 23, 1997 Interviewer: Mel Klenetsky

Welcome to EIR Talks. I'm Mel Klenetsky. We're on the line
with Lyndon LaRouche from Virginia. How are you, today, Mr.
LaRouche?

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, fairly frisky, with the summit
coming up between the Presidents of the United States and
China, a matter I'm sure we'll get to today.

MEL KLENETSKY: Yes, we definitely will get to that a little
later on. I'd like to begin with asking you about the 10th
anniversary of the October 1987 financial collpse. Of course,
you made one of your major predictions prior to that, and you
did call that one. What do you think of it at this point?

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, it happened. "Black Monday"
happened. It happened in Asia. Now, there was, of course, a
great deal of effort, including the usual thing of spending money
to try to bail out markets on Monday and Tuesday of this week,
in the United States, Europe, and in Britain -- which I don't
really consider part of Europe [chuckle]. But, the bailout didn't
work -- it kept the figures high, but it didn't work -- because, as
is noted generally, the effect of globalization, particularly since
the so called "Great Event" in London some years ago, in the
1980s, is that markets have become globalized. And, so, that
what happens in one market will have effects on two or three
different other markets. The markets are so interlinked that, if
Japan and other Asian countries collapse, then it is inevitable
that Europe and the United States' financial system will
collapse. There is no longer, because of globalization, any
ability of any section of the world, to insulate itself, even in the
relatively short term, from crises that occur in other major
markets in the world. So, what happens to Japan and South
Asia, together, is what is happening to us. So, the fact that the
pages of the various newspapers were euphoric, that there
wasn't -- an apparent -- Black Friday on Wall Street this
Monday, or Tuesday, does not mean that everything is well.
Black Monday happened. It happened on schedule -- not
because it was the 10th anniversary, because it was an event
which was going to happen anyway. And it's not over, in any
case. This is not like '87. The 1987 collapse was essentially a
collapse of the junk bond period of U.S. and other speculation.

What is in process now, is an ongoing collapse, of various kinds
of things, but a collapse which is driven by the impending
collapse of a hundred-trillion-dollar-equivalent world derivatives
bubble, which represents entirely current obligations -- the same
year -- an amount which exceeds the total value of the product,
the annual product, of all world nations combined; which means
-- the United States carries about 30% of that risk; and, that's
not the limit of short-term obligations -- which means, that
every banking system in the world, with the exception of
China's, is presently bankrupt. And it's just a matter of -- you
know, there's the fellow that says when he shakes his head, it's
going to fall off? As long as the world doesn't shake its head,
well, the head may not fall off. But, when it has to shake his
head, or when it sneezes, the head is already disconnected, and
will fall off. So, there was nothing -- nothing good happened, as
far as markets were concerned. As a matter of fact, the money
that was poured in, to try to keep the markets from collapsing,
would have been better spent in other ways. Because, by what
was done, was, the tension in the bubble was increased, which
means that the bubble, when it explodes in the near future,
upon the United States, will explode with greater force and
more devastating consequences than if they hadn't tried to bail it
out.

EIR: The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung has a lead editorial
reporting that the pessimists are predicting an imminent financial
collapse, they're seeing parallels between '87 and today; but,
FAZ says, "Don't worry. Central bankers have learned how to
open up the monetary floodgates, to prevent a collapse."

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, this is all nonsense. You know,
there're two kinds of arguments -- apart from the sane
arguments. ( The sane people are saying, "The system is rotten,
its going to collapse. There's nothing you can do to prevent it." )
Now, you have two schools of thought outside of that: You
have the -- typified by Alan Greenspan -- you have the old-era
monetarist thinking. Now, these are people who say that people
and governments will have to suffer as much as is necessary to
keep the market alive, and we're in deep trouble. Then, you
have the idiots, the real gibbering idiots -- people who are better
equipped to sell vacuum cleaners than they are to run financial
markets. These are the new era people, who believe that
information theory, computers, and so forth, will somehow
keep this world going forever, and we cannot have these cycles
of crises of the past. These guys are the real idiots. And, it
happened on an unlucky day, that FAZ, the Frankfurter
Allgemeine Zeitung, got one of the editorial writers, who is one
of these new era freaks, so just don't pay any attention to it.
Just realize that this clown came out today, the new era freak.
Tomorrow you'll get an Alan Greenspan-type, old-era freak; in
the meantime, neither of them are telling the truth. Ignore both
of them, unless you want to run an insane asylum.

Don't Throw Money Down the Sewer Trying To Prop Up
the System

EIR: ... Mr. LaRouche, in an issue of the EIR which is hitting
the streets this week -- actually it hit the stands already -- you
have an introduction to a Feature package which is called,
"Where is U.S. Foreign Policy Going!" and in that introduction
you write about "three mutually contradictory policy thrusts" of
the Clinton Administration; specifically, these thrusts are in
China, South, and Central America. Can you explain?

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, what the problem is, is that here
we are, we're facing the worst financial collapse in the 20th
Century. It potentially is the worst financial catastrophe to hit
European civilization since the so-called New Dark Age of the
14th Century, which hit when the entire banking system of
Europe ( the so-called Lombard banking system ) went belly up,
after a speculative bubble explosion, very much analogous in
some respects to what's happened on the world over the past 30
years, expecially in the past 17 years or so. So, this is the
reality.

Now, the question is, is how do we save the nations, and the
people in them from this financial collapse -- there's nothing that
can be done to stop this present financial system, and also the
monetary system that's associated with it, from collapsing.
Nothing can be done. Any money spent to try to save this
financial system, or, to save this present monetary system, is
money thrown down the sewer, is value thrown down the
sewer. To save this system, is not worth putting one single
human life, anywhere on this planet, to risk. Let it go. It's not
worth saving. It's a liability. It's like trying to save a fatal disease
that you've got.

Okay. Now, how do we do that? The problem here is that there
are powerful financial interests on this planet centered in places
like the Anglo-Dutch financial oligarchy, which dominates about
60-65% of the world's financial activity. Hmm? The most
powerful force in economics on this planet right now. And, with
adjuncts in Wall Street, for example, Alan Greenspan represents
largely an adjunct of the people in the United States centered
around Wall Street who are, in a sense, the little brothers of the
big swindlers in London and places like that. Now, we have to,
to save the system, we've got to create a new financial and
monetary system and put the old system into bankruptcy
reorganization, for the same reasons, and in much the same
way, that a government puts a bankrupt bank into bankruptcy
reorganization: that is, to prevent the collapse of the bank from
becoming a social and economic catastrophe for the community
in which the bank is located. So, you move in to protect the
depositors, to rearrange what will be settled, resolve the debts,
settle the payments, come up with a payments plan, or
whatever, either to keep the bank going or to shut it down after
paying off the depositors. And we have a similar thing with this
system; but, a group of governments will have to do it. One
government alone can't do it. Therefore, the United States
needs to find allies to do this.

That is, the President of the United States, if he has got any
guts at all, if he's worth anything at all, is, on a certain day in
the very near future, he's going to say that he has spoken and
discussed with several nations, and they've come to an
agreement that they're putting a bankrupt international financial
and monetary system into bankruptcy. That will probably come
like Franklin Roosevelt's announcement of the Japanese
bombing of Pearl Harbor in 1941, that the crisis will hit, the
people will be demanding action; the President will step forward
and say, "I've talked with other governments. A number of us
have agreed. We're declaring the present system in bankruptcy,
and we're working together both to put the old system into
bankruptcy reorganization to prevent chaos; and at the same
time we're acting to create a new monetary system, based on
sound principles, which we proved back in the post-war period,
expecially, in the 1950s, with the old Bretton Woods agreement.
We're going back to something like that, with some
modifications."

If the President does that, then he will save the United States,
and save a lot of other things as well. If the President does not
do that, than the President will go down in the halls of infamy
as the man who failed. He'll go down like, less than the Young
Moltke, who lost World War One to the British & Co., in
effect. So, but, for the President to do that, he must find
partners. The most important partner for the President at this
time is China. China is not a world power; it's a regional power.
It has regional thinking. It thinks from China outwards. It does
not think in global terms, even though it takes global factors into
consideration. But, the impulse of some of China's leaders, of
course, is to think globally, but the Chinese people, the Chinese
institutions think as a regional power, as part of, tied to what
people call "the Middle Kingdom" idea, as well, things like that.

But, if you have China and the United States agreed, on policies
like this; if the nations of Southeast Asia and Japan agree -- and
the nations of Southeast Asia essentially are already in
partnership with China now against the IMF, as Mahathir, of
Malaysia, merely reflects that. If you have the countries of
South and Central America who are close to the United States,
joining with the President of the United States, to join with
China and Asian nations on this issue, and so forth, and so on,
then the United States has a group of nations which represent
collectively under U.S. leadership, or U.S. partnership, enough
clout to do what the President must do.

What happens now, however, is, the President is stuck several
ways. President Clinton has a good policy toward China, in the
sense of seeking an active partnership on a state-to-state level.
That's good. the President has also a good policy in terms of his
relationship to Central and South America. Oh, we'll have to
continue this.


EIR: Do you have any further thoughts or updates on the death
of Princess Diana?

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, it's becoming clear. We'll --
we're doing a feature, not in this week's issue, but in the next
week's issue, on where the investigation stands so far. There is
no question it was murder. It was, comes under the category of
vehicular homicide. We are not speculating on who did the
murder. I think, and I've recommended, and my associates
have agreed, that it its counterproductive to get into a premature
"whodunit." It is clearly a murder; it is clearly a vehicular
homicide. It is also clear that the French government -- officially
-- is complicit in a vehicular homicide after the fact; that is, in a
deliberate cover-up. We have some indications as to what the
nature of the act was, and we know what some of the missing
evidence is, that has to be sought for. One of them is the use of
blinding lasers or similar kinds of things, a technology with
which I'm familiar. That if, at the same time that the vehicle
was being rammed from one side by a vehicle, and the car
carrying the Princess was also being harrassed massively by two
or there motorcyclists, as well as this Fiat Uno which has been
identified by a paint stripe on the Mercedes 280-S, that, the
flashes were going on, but there's one other thing possible: Is,
that the way you would assure a death -- and that was
obviously an intentional hit against Princess Diana -- the way
you assure a hit is you blind the driver, while -- and, you
preferably stun him ( and there are various ways including laser
techniques, which were developed as anti-personnel lasers
against combat pilots, in aircraft, during the 1980s ) . These
hand-held weapons of this type, or similar types, that can
produce similar effects, abound.

Any major agency, particularly a government-related or
secret-government kind of agency of the type that George Bush
was running out of the United States during the 1080s, would
have access to such special weapons. Such special weapons
would assure an assassination. We're not drawing a final
conclusion on this, but we're going to indicate to the reader,
what these capabilities are, what kind of an investigations has to
be conducted to deal with the kind of vehicular homicide, very
sophisticated, which was run against Princess Diana and the
party in that vehicle.

EIR: Mr. LaRouche, our time is up, it's been very enjoyable
and informative; I hope that we can speak again in the future
weeks.

hey:

If you have read my postings over the past few months you will see that I am long gold from 320 and long more silver from 420. With gold down 3% and silver up 15% from those levels it is not very hard to 'maintain' a position. In fact it will be quite easy to add on, and I will do just that.

JTF That wasn't me either!: ) I posted an old RJ post for LGB and neglected to put the header in, so it was confusing I am sure. Sorry. Hope no one else gets confused. Now where did I put that lost shaker of salt, ah well, no matter, doesn't go with bourbon anyway. Good night all.

Hepcat: You did correctly predict the downturn in gold -- now why don't you join the rest of us and give us your rationale? Those of us who either contribute news, or post our thoughts and reasoning are far more helpful to others on this site, as well as to ourselves.

Cherry, you and your efflux have been on this site long enough
to know who 2227 is, and I am anxiously awaiting to see how
your doom and gloom scenario plays out. You have become such
a caricature of yourself that people call upon you now only
for a laugh or pleasant diversion, and you are only too willing to trot
up on stage and run through your hamhanded act. Someone who
hides behind the same stereotype and pushes the same buttons
night after night after night must have carved out a very
comfortable and quite impersonal niche, yes? Be a shame if you
turned out to be right someday and people only remembered you
as that crazy Indian, wouldn't it?

To : Hepcat - re your 18:36
Your logic is flawed. For an analogy, let's take Microsoft. At $130 a share we can all argue as to whether or not MSFT is a good investment. If next week MSFT drops to $65, then irrespective of our assessment of its value at 130 we can certainly say that it is now twice as good an investment as it was the previous week ( we may still say it is over-valued, but it is half as over-valued as it was the week before ) . The reason is that the underlying business hasn't changed, only the market price has changed.

A value oriented investor looks for differences between intrinsic value and market price to determine when to buy. Just because something is good value today at a certain price, doesn't mean it is not going to be better value tomorrow. The lower the price of gold becomes, the better the value and the better the investment. Of course, serious investors operate over time scales measured in years, not days, weeks or months.

Not physical gold. You got in on silver at $4.20?

DA, printed and filed! Excellent! BTW all: buds was figurative, don't smoke it and certainly wouldn't drink that other bud either! Good night again.

If the IMF has 25 to 30 Billion $ in gold and other central banks have large holdings, wouldn't make sense to accumulate all they can at a low price and then run the price way way up. Thus giving them enormous clout especially when they back their now monoply money with some percent of gold. If they then have the lions share of the gold, they will have all the barganing power and could save the world from a currency meltdown.

Steve-Perth: I used to think Lyndon Larouche was not worth listening to. -- but I'm begninning to wonder if he's all that crazy! I don't believe the conspiracy stuff -- but he is extremely bright, and does seem to understand the markets. Thanks for the post! I think we need to follow his comments -- probably more useful than some of our other mysterious posters in Kitco, and certainly more sane than some! At least he explains things directly enough that they can be checked.

John ( jatkison ) - I'm traveling and don't have the tools with me to post the channels chart. Will do late Sunday when I get home. These charts use the London PM closing, so won't reflect the action late in the day. However, I cheated and entered the Kitco closing prices, to see what it would look like.

Silver is sitting comfortably right at the bottom of the channel. Doesn't look too distressed.

PL - ditto.

PA - holding well above the channel bottom.

Gold - These channels seem to be useful for normal market moves, but can't stand up to trauma such as the Swiss announcement. Gold has spiked down significantly below the channel bottom. Personally I think it is significant that the last vertical drop happened after the London market was closed. Same as the drop in July. I would wager that the recovery up to the $320 level will be so quick that only the very nimble will be able to take advantage of the full range of this move.

What do yo

D.A. agree completely with your most recent assessment...after this trough
we will go alot higher as the economy cathes up to the stock market...it is not
the end, just the beginning of the end. The banks are still making plenty
of real estate loans and will continue to do so....

Catman:

For someone who works for the CDC I will make the great leap of faith that once upon a time you were required to take a course in statistics. Do you remember that day when they talked about random walks and coin flips? Remember the part about how the expected departure from 0 in a running total of heads and tails in a series of coin tosses was the square root of n, where n was the number of tosses? If gold traded for 25 days between the day of your prediction and today and its average one day volatility was around .5 percent then we highest expectation of its departure from its starting point would be + or - around $9.

Now to get the stocks off by 600, that takes some insight.

One dog, woof.
Two dogs, woof, yap, yap.

My last message was truncated for some reason. I ended with:

What do you bet that RJ is sitting on the beach down at the wedge, watching the sun go down, sipping on a good cognac. Well satisfied, but wishing that he could bask just a little in our congratulations for reading the market well, and making some great $$$ for his clients.

Cheers, RJ! Well done.

If anyone has any money left, I would buy gold and gold stock a little every week and accumulate by price cost averageing. We will be rewarded for our perserverance. Look who is on the advisory board of Barrick Gold. ( George Bush, Howard Baker, Helmut Kohl, Brian Mulruney, and Vernon Jorden. ) What do they know that we dont?

Milhouse - By whose definition is Microsoft twice as
good a value at $65 as it was at $130? By my seat-of-the-pants
definition, it fell from $130 to $65 so I want no part of it.

As far as gold, it is a better value at $310 than $350 if
it is assured that it will go up to some higher level than
either $310 or $350. But what I asked here back in July
was "What if this drop indicates that gold is not going back
to $350 ever ( or within my attention span, which may not
be a long time but is fairly representative of the younger
generation living in an instant gratification world ) ?" What
if gold is as outmoded to the next generation as vacuum tube
computers? I continue to bring up coins/stamps/baseball cards
as examples because ( again apologizing, but that's the way it
is ) , to my generation, it appears that gold is no different from
these collectibles. It is a vehicle that people imbue with value,
there is no intrinsic need for it in modern society, and its value
at any particular time depends on what people are willing to pay
for it. If I was to argue that the card market is not coming back,
not too many people would disagree with me. If I was to argue that
the coin and stamp hobbies are dead unless we start attracting more
fresh blood, no one would disagree with me. How are
you attracting more people to the side of gold? I would say that
continued talk of conspiracies or concerted efforts to artificially
depress the price of gold only scare people away. I have talked
about this before and been roundly criticized. Yet gold continues
to drop. As I say, in order to silence my naive beliefs only one
thing has to happen. It ain't happening yet.

Sorry:

The fund got options, I got futures.

All: Sleep tight, don't let the gold-bugs bite.

Questor: re your 22:05 post. Well put! Historical gold charts are not worth very much are they? Most of this is pre-gold derivatives trading! The rules have changed, and we don't know how long this juggling game can be played by the Central Banks and others, but it is clearly much longer than in the pre-derivatives days! Just knowing the relationship between gold/US$/oil is not sufficient, but it helps!
All: anyone notice that oil stocks have survived quite well during this turmoil? Any comments on silver not dropping? Or the persistently high crb spot index? Perhaps gold won't stay down very long!

John! I just came in to see how gold finished and BAM!! You are the Man!! I made a buttload of duckets...FAR exceeding my goal. Excuse me one moment...

YAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
YEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
OH MYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

aaaaaahhh...that felt great!

310 huh? Well ya' missed it...DOH!! Did you throw in the extra few bucks because you were off by a day?? They did not listen to you or RJ and especially not me. When I said the elevator was going to the basement parking garage ( on SEVERAL occasions ) I did not know it wasn't going to stop. DAMN!! Well I held all my shorts and it could get ugly AGAIN. I think the floodgates were opened and what is to stop it from slipping under 300?? I think the elevator has a few more floors...all aboard!! Next stop...?!?!

Anyway, Great call!!

Away...to relax on my bed-o-$$
$$

don't worry fellow bugs...Gold will shine again...not soon though...

Tolerant1:

Kitco is alive and well tonight. Hope this is a good sign in view of the days trading. Near term is the health of the NYSE and DOW. Tell me, how does a lack of currency confidence in far east asia fundamentally affect us here at the US? Our dollar is king. Our banking system is best in the world. Recent selloff is no more than smart yuppies locking in gains. Fact is, we all know roughly twice as many "millionaires" as two years ago. Gold and PMs react to emotions short term and "Cole's Principles" long term.

Thanks for the info on silver.

Milhouse : I was away all week. Heard anything more from the loud mouth calling for Dow 8300 by July 23 ?

D.A.- I agree with all that you said. Now is the time to take positions and for me additional positions.

George S. Cole- If I could just get ahold to that a--hole that keeps buggin you. Anyway I appreciate your thoughts!

Tally Ho

Way to go, Ted. Now it's somehow carved in stone
that I was off by 600. D.A., be a gentleman.
I was off by at most 200, and 450 if you want
to say I said "Dow at exactly 8300 on exactly
10/23/97", which I didn't say. And again, we've
been through this before, I haven't had any
statistics, but it seems that what you're
asserting with this example is that the
Dow's direction and daily variance are just
two basic coin flips, and that randomness
would argue that the Dow would over the
long term never move from where it was when
you started flipping the coins. So I should
have just predicted the Dow and gold would
be close to where they were at the time I
made the prediction. This is like in
meterology school when they give you no points
for saying the weather tomorrow will be
the same as the weather was today. Almost
certinly true, but very boring, and misses
the big weather changes that everyone
remembers. You don't get kicked off of this
site for being boring, D.A.

Wall Street finds no cure for Hong Kong Flu
Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press

NEW YORK ( October 24, 1997 6:28 p.m. EDT http://www.nando.net ) -- The Hong Kong Flu may not be a 24-hour bug. While Hong Kong markets rebounded Friday from Thursday's massive selloff, the recovery was unconvincing in many other major global markets, where early gains faded during the day.

With U.S. stocks down from record heights but still up nearly 20 percent for the year, Wall Street has hardly been brought to its knees. But the rapid spread of the stock shock demonstrates the delicate constitution of an expanding global economy and the seven-year U.S. recovery.

"It brings in the question of just how fragile this elderly bull market really is," said Ken Goldstein, an economist at The Conference Board, a business-financed research group.

A rebound in Hong Kong stocks Friday failed to persuade investors in other markets that Asia's economic problems have ended. On Wall Street, the indecision was evident in the volatile swings of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, up 92 points at the onset, then down 152 before trimming its losses to 132.36 at 7,715.41 -- the Dow's lowest finish since Aug. 29.

The week -- which ended with the Dow tumbling 4 percent in the final two days of trading -- was the busiest ever on Wall Street, with some 7 billion shares changing hands. Friday saw the heaviest volume ever -- or almost 1.8 billion shares combined on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq Stock Market and American Stock Exchange.

As a new trading day began Friday, Hong Kong's main Hang Seng index bounced back from its 10 percent plunge, the steepest retreat since the 1987 crash. It finished up 718.04 points, or almost 7 percent, at 11,144.34, on bargain-hunting after the selloff.

Relief that the selling spree was interrupted spilled over into Japan's market, which gained 1.2 percent. European markets also rallied at first, then faded to slight losses in London and Paris, while German markets finished higher.

As the Hong Kong bug lingers, plenty of other germs live on to evolve into market-debilitating viruses another day. Skittish Wall Street investors, for example, also fear the day the Federal Reserve sees enough inflation signs to raise interest rates, dampening the economy and corporate profits.

And throughout Asia, currency concerns persist, like those that prompted the Hong Kong market's retreat Thursday. Unstable economies in what until recently was viewed as a booming market remain a threat to the United States, which sends more than a quarter of its exports to the Asia-Pacific region.

The selloff on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday and Friday especially hit companies that do business in Asia, such as airlines and technology concerns.

"It's really disheartening," said Milwaukee public defender Adrienne Drake, who dropped a handful of earrings on hearing of Thursday's stock shock while shopping. "I was doing pretty good with the stocks I had. I am trying to get as much in while I am still working. Now I guess I will have to work a little longer."

True market volatility -- not the jolting increases of recent years -- remains a history subject to millions of Americans.

Generation X, best known for its pierced bodies and jaded outlook, is more optimistic about Wall Street than previous generations. Sixty-five percent of 25- to 33-year-olds have started investing for retirement, according to a survey this month by the nonprofit Employee Benefit Research Institute and the American Savings Education Council.

And why not? Most were in their teens during the last stock market panic, the Black Monday crash of Oct. 19, 1987. Stocks have bolted about 12 percent annually since then.

'If you're 30 years old and you're investing in Company X for retirement or your kids' college, the fact that the stock market might have gone down 200 points last night is not going to affect your plans for the year 2015 -- nor should it," Goldstein said.

And if there are seeds of panic, they are not entrenched in this country. Of 23 people The Associated Press questioned in Dallas about the global stock plunge late Thursday afternoon, only one knew it had happened. Many others are not fazed.

"I'm not too worried about it," retiree Peter Harren said on his daily stroll through a Milwaukee mall. "It's going to come back up again like it always does. People just worry too much."

Among the worriers was James Dewhurst, a broker at Charterhouse Tilney Securities in London, who watched as markets in Hong Kong and in some European countries were recapturing only some of Thursday's losses on Friday.

"For the moment, the strong downside has been broken," Dewitt said. "The question mark remains on the durability of it."

By JOHN HENDREN, The Associated Press

but you were off by SIX HUNDRED.Nice try!

Gold investing is simple if you know what to do. As of today if you invested in MS62 $20 lib's when gold was trading at $350 you would have not lost nothing but the spread. The ask is $465 and then it was $465. Now if you purchased gold bullion and gold stocks you would be sucking alot of wind.

Silverbug -- I couldn't make it drop much by even calling it stupid several times! I still want to see something under 4.70 on the Dec., but I kind of expect it to be pretty brief should it happen. That's how I feel about silver at this time! But, as usual, we'll see!

Good Article Ck out the Bibliography cross ref. at the end. Nelson Aldrich Rockafeller

A communique sent from the Rothschild investment house in England to its associate in New York
remarked:

"The few who understand the system...will either be so interested in its profits or so
dependent on its favors that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the
other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending...will
bear its burdens without complaint."13
http://www.khouse.org/fedreser.html

Don't mean to intrude. I just came back from The Privateer's site ( great site, Bill ) . Would someone with expertise in interpreting charts look at the weekly chart at

http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html

Does it look like gold is putting in the head of a massive inverted head and shoulder formation? The July 7th low looks like it might have been the left shoulder, today and probably the next several trading days the formation of the head, and maybe sometime in the future ( maybe in about three months ) , the right shoulder.

Maybe I'm just dreaming or hallucinating ( where are those fungi when you need them ) . Comments, please.

Back to the cave to lurk and learn.

Roebear: Thanks for the recall and backup. Now, I only wish I had responded positively to my own thoughts at the time. ....... There is probably only one technical factor that has any validity at all in markets of this sort and that is volume. Volume, volume and more volume. Manipulation cannot co-exist with volume. In it's absence, it probably makes more sense to fold the hand and watch for awhile.

Let's say I was off by 6000.

What I really predicted was the Dow to go to 2300 by 10/23/97.
( No, wait, that would be copying Dr. Peutz )

What I really predicted was that the Dow would be at 14,300
at the close on 10/23/97, and that if it got to 14,300 any
time before that and not exactly at the close, I would
swallow a mixture of human and animal vomit. Further,
I really meant to predict and actually did predict back
in September ( too bad we can't go back and see it ) that
the Dow would go to 443,800 sometime during the very
next week, although I wasn't going to pin myself down
to any particular day, since I might be confined to bed.

Silverbug -- One more thing, I believe the short term low in silver will be Monday. It should at least take a bounce then. From that, we'll gain some more insight I think. I think gold will also establish a number to work off of. I don't know what that is yet. Apparently gonna have to play that one by ear. I haven't had any takers from others in providing 'numbers'.

John -- Don't want to comment on that head&shoulders that you speak of, but the action has sure widened out the bollinger bands! Would be 'interesting' to hit/surpass the top one again, wouldn't it!

Well, all the bears have come out to play tonight! But here is a thought for all. What is the most likely losing scenerio for goldbugs? Gold continues to fall becomes so worthless that it is used for paving stones. Peace and harmony reign. All us poor goldbugs will grow old and live on the dole, having all our needs met by a loving government. The guys who are in stocks, bonds and other high yield investments will be rich and pay beau coup taxes to support us. So we win anyway.

Or do we really care. Are the days of the great crashes over? Stay tuned

Looks like you are having a very exciting Friday night but then again,what else could you be doing?

Goldfinger -- The numbers on the MS62s is gratifying. I have a 'few' of them somewhere. Good to know that I don't need to use them as paving stones yet!

This is really heaven and we just don't know it yet. Boy, the streets get paved in gold because gold becomes worthless and everybody lives here just like in heaven. Now thats wicked !!!