Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:01 - ID#288214)

Use FIND function to find the word LON

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:02 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Hepcat -- Rather than arguing with him, why don't you simply ask him what his 'prediction' was. Saves bandwidth and cuts down on the noise. That would be better for all of us I think.

well I could be out harvesting prawns
(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:05 - ID#194132)
but apparently I'm not cut out for that
Tarnished - I have to post and post often when I have
access to a computer that Bart hasn't blocked because
of the Kitco regulars complaints. It's kind of like
making hay when the sun shines, or catching prawns
when they're biting or jumping or prawning or whatever.
Plus, of course, I knew when I woke up this morning
that it was going to be a good day to "work the
congregation". I'm sure you won't be hearing
too much from me in the near future, because it
takes a lot of effort to make predictions that
the higher powers then put into effect, especially
when I have to run from library to library.
As well, I think I've made a small point that
doesn't need to be repeated much more often:

Whatever you think of me, however you discredit
me, regardless of how much you dislike
me, when I decide to make a prediction,
ignore me at your peril.

( Unless of course, I make a prediction
about the Dow )

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:07 - ID#433171)
Eldo, The lib's are also hard to find I might add. An excellent way to play gold right now. I just bought several today after stuggling to locate them. There not that many around.

say Bart
(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:09 - ID#239159)
what it the total up to now?
It must be about 9 if you blocked those libraries north
of Athens. I think you can safely unblock all of UNC now.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:17 - ID#263259)
behind the times
Bart, your nonframes version has a bug in the date function so it doesn't roll over until midnight Vacouver time. So I'll not be able to engage in witty and light reparte with Goldbug, pretending we're two Jacobean gentlemen awaiting dawn and the ride out to the square where the guillotine awaits us...

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:18 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Goldfinger -- Wouldn't surprise me a bit that they are getting scarce. There may be a lot of total paper heads out there, but I know damn well that there are also a lot of folks who have wisened up to what's going on and want a 'bit' of insurance to! In fact, the numismatics will hold there price, and go up before bullion does. But I also like metals close to/at spot, without the premium. That's where plain old junk silver coins are nice. Also more easily negotiable should the 'need' arise.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:26 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Hepcat -- Where do you hang out at when you like to drink a beer?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:26 - ID#335190)
October 24, 1997
Canada gold shares tumble as gold hits 12-yr low

TORONTO, Oct 24 ( Reuters ) - Canadian gold shares tumbled on Friday after spot gold prices sank to a new 12-year low following news of a Swiss gold-sale plan.
The Toronto Stock Exchange's key gold and precious metals index sank 739.84 points, or 8.42 percent on Friday, it's sharpest one-day drop since March.
Spot gold prices fell to a 12-year low of US$311.80 an ounce early Friday afternoon on news of a Swiss proposal to sell 1,400 tonnes of gold if the plan passes a referendum in 1999. Canadian gold stocks, already wallowing at year lows due to weak bullion markets, were among the TSE's biggest losers on Friday.
Barrick Gold Corp , North America's biggest gold producer, sank 2.35 to 30.45 on volume of 1.3 million shares. Placer Dome Inc dropped 2.80 to 23.40 on 2.1 million shares, while Getchell Gold Corp surrendered 4.40 to finish at 53. Euro-Nevada Mining Corp Ltd fell the furthest, closing down 4.65 at 22.20.
Canadian mining analysts were surprised by the market's reaction to the Swiss plan which was recommended by a panel of financial experts and still needs government approval.
CIBC Wood Gundy analyst Bill Belovay said it is just a recommendation and still must go through an elaborate approval process.
"This vote only starts in 1999 and they are not going to sell it in one big lump. They are going to be selling it over a period of 10 years," Belovay said on Friday.
"I see it as a temporary spike downward," Belovay said of the drop in gold prices today.
( ( Darren Schuettler, Reuters Toronto Bureau ( 416 ) 941-8106 ) )

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:27 - ID#343289)

To Hepcat : re your 23:07 post.
There is really nothing in your post that I disagree with. You said " As far as gold, it is a better value at $310 than $350 if it is assured that it will go up to some higher level than either $310 or $350." This is true. You also said "... its value at any particular time depends on what people are willing to pay for it " and that "...continued talk of conspiracies or concerted efforts to artificially depress the price of gold only scare people away". This is absolutely true .
As I've said many times before, I believe gold's current price is due to a lack of investment demand. Where we disagree is that I am expecting this investment demand to increase strongly over the next few years. I have been expecting for some time that gold's ultimate low would occur some time prior to April 98 and would coincide with the announced sale of gold reserves by Germany. In the mean time I'll continue to buy gold stocks on weakness and short silver on strength.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:28 - ID#217357)
Sorry boys and girls for the great drop in Gold today.
I have decided that to solve the world's problems,
everything should be free. Yes, that's right.
First off, all foriegn imports should be free, well
maybe close to free. We want free radios and VCRs,
computers and cars, not to mention some fossil fuel.
Additionally, everyone should have lots of money.
Money, money, money. In fact, no one should have to
work for it, and if you do, you ain't getting paid.
We can just print and print and print. Maybe we could
borrow a little too.
Or maybe the stock market will make us all rich, oh yes
look at all that money in the stock market. Rich, rich, rich.
We're all loaded. Then when we are all rich, we can buy all the free stuff. As for that bad boy Gold, we have so many
tricks up our sleeve he aint never gonna wake up.
Remember, if everything is free, free, free, then
inflation is dead.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:33 - ID#252110)

Eldorado - your 23:48. Thanks for the reply.

I've run across charts with Bollinger bands, but being somewhat new to investing, didn't really know how to interpret them. Found some info at After a little studying, I went back and looked at a chart for Battle Mountain Gold ( generated courtesy of ) . Should have seen the downtrend in BMG coming at the beginning of this month. Oh, well, live and learn.

Back to the cave to study and learn.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:33 - ID#263259)
The Axe on Monday!
LGB: Well, how much did you lose today? I've taken less of a mudbath than I thought, 'cause I had the foresight to liquidate all my growth stocks and move to income stocks ( T for instance is at it's year high today, above 50! ) . But come Monday we're going to get the axe my friend. I can't read your replies, 'cause I don't have frames and will be abed by 00:00 Vancouver time, but I'd be interested in what you think the market will settle on, particularly the small caps that people have been buying the last few weeks. Like you, I'm 'way ahead on SSC. I don't worry as much as you about the gold stock volatility. They are an important hedge. As has been mentioned here before, they are a great way of getting taxe losses.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:34 - ID#335190)
Saturday, October 25, 1997
Gold hammered

Producers hit hard as bullion plunges to 12-year low of US$307.30 on news Switzerland may sell half its massive reserves
Gold weighs on Bay Street

Mining Reporter The Financial Post
Gold investors sent the price of bullion into a free fall on Friday, panicking on news the Swiss government may sell more than half its gold reserves.
Gold fell by a numbing US$15.70 an ounce, closing at US$307.30, a 12 1/2-year low.
The crash obliterated the gains made in a brief rally in late September and, with them, hopes for a meaningful recovery in this year's dismal gold market.
The last time the world saw a gold price as low as Friday's was in December 1984.

Martin Murenbeeld, an independent analyst in Victoria, B.C., said the only thing that will give gold a meaningful push is a crash in North American equity markets.
"It needs a crash of about 20% over a three-month period," Murenbeeld said. "Then you would get a significant kick in the gold price -- up to 10%."

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:38 - ID#263259)
Last post before midnight!
Goldfinger: Oh, I forgot to mention. Lurking Goldbug's stocks will bounce back up about the time you and me are broke. He'll be paying in the 60% tax bracket to get his 401k money out of hock while us poor types will be goldbricking and drinking all the free government beer and eating the rainbow pie!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:40 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Donald -- Perhaps others can refute this but it has been my experience that negative premium typically means an imminent turn in the futures price. Whether at the top or at the bottom. That's what I'll be looking for come Monday A:M. Probably sometime after the opening but within the first hour or even half hour. I, for one, WILL be watching the action! But damn it, I DO want to see silver trading lower!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:43 - ID#401460)
AG which is it?
Greenspan says 'New Age' theory needs years to prove
WASHINGTON, Oct 24 ( October 24, 1997 8:05 p.m. EDT ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Friday that the debate on whether the nation's economy had entered a new era of solid growth and low inflation may take years to conclude.

I thought he said their are no new paradigms.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:46 - ID#352177)
Milhouse : Jerry favors argues that a breach of critical support of Dow 7556.23, Intraday low, would lead to a sharp decline in stocks and possibly even a crash. Intraday low on Friday was 7645.91. Just 79.68 more to go.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:46 - ID#411259)
..... I Couldn't Resist .....

Don't you just hate people who quote themselves?

sell it into the basement anywhere above $346. Don't fight the central banks. They are your friends. Do what they do. It's easyThe only way gold will jump $10 is with a knee in the ribs and a stomp on the foot. Or maybe I misunderstood "soon"... On a tectonic scale......

I am basically bearish on gold in the next few months, to the tune of $1.8 million short @ $348 & 350. I Did 5000 oz from $348 to $338.5 a couple months ago.

If we get to $447 - $448 without a decisive breakout and consolidation above $450, I will sell gold back into the dirt from whence it came...Gold is like a brand new pedigreed puppy dog, the outline of the champion can be clearly seen, but it needs to grow a little. In the meantime, it will chew on your shoes, crap on the carpet, and pee in your bed. And while these things will make you angry, you will look in this dear puppy's sad and innocent eyes, and you will forgive. The puppy it only acting according to its nature. Did you expect anything different?

It's looking more like the Swiss will sell gold in '97 and I guess the verdict is in on Belgium. I wouldn't want to be a buyer until a bottom is found. If it breaks through $335, we'll see $330. There's gold in them thar depths.

Gold will go down before it goes up. This is not the bottom, nor are we near the bottom. $320 - 300 is possible, and likely this year.

I covered 2500 oz gold today at $334.50, kept another 2000 oz. Sold it all at $348. I'm worried that the Asians and Indians will buy it up Monday. If not, I'll hold the rest for $330, if it does rise, I'll sell it into the dirt anywhere above $340.

I think we are more likely to see $300 in that same time period. I admit, it could go either way. Today's small rally was on very weak short covering, I'm tempted to short tomorrow almost wherever it lands. I would love 3 - 4 up, but I would sell 322. Gold will continue its ride of woe.

gold will probably flirt with 300 - 305I am soooooooooooo short. Gold to $300. Let it go to $335, good! I'll sell it into a black hole.

I believe gold will hit at least $300, as this is a target for those that would drive it there. I even believe that gold could go much lower this year.

I have listed my suspect of further sales numerous times, I am watching the Germans and the Swiss. Why did the Swiss lower the 40% gold currency backing to 25%? What reason could they possibly have to do this? The Germans have made plenty of noise about revaluation, which was promptly squashed. I believe they too will jump into the fray. I can give no definite time frame.

Gold should retest the recent lows. I think we will hit new lows in the next month.

Gold is so very sick. New lows soon. Even a silver rally will not spill significantly into gold.

The short gold, long silver/platinum trade has been the safest play. Some of my clients are a bit nervous about the gold short, but even in a breakout, silver and platinum will outperform gold. I believe we will hit new lows soon, the selling continues, the next announcement of CB sales will be good for a 15 - 20 dollar drop immediately. I will look to cover my shorts anywhere below 310. The 300 wall should hold the first time around, maybe a nice little rally back to present levels. I will look at new shorts then.

Lest the glee run amuck:
Gold has gone to these levels three times since July, so we are not treading unfamiliar ground. Higher prices could encourage producers to lock in more forward sales. 200+ tons sold by European CB ( Germany, France? ) over the last few weeks. Gold will make new lows before the year is out I will add to new shorts from here to 331 spot. Above that, a quick rally to 440 should offer new opportunities to place new shorts.

Today was all buy stops, there was no fund buying. The silver move was new longs. Open interest on silver was up, gold was down. The move in silver is solid, gold much less so. I think we will see the 6 dollar gain today evaporate by the end of the week. I'm laying in new shorts to cost average my lower positions..I stand here ready for the chorus of goldbug glee that is bound to follow. I would offer just two words of caution: "Not Yet".
Re: CB gold sales.. Not ifIts been going on for four or five weeks. 200+ metric tons. Germany, France, England. My bets are on the Huns. Look for an announcement very similar to the Aussie of July 3, with much the same timing, and much the same response.

This entire gold rally was short covering. Gold will follow silver higher if higher silver goes. Your individual investor demand is nonexistent. Announcement soon on 200 + metric tons sold by European CB. When the world wakes up one day to see one of the most conservative gold nations on earth has sold truckloads of gold, the price will plummet..When the bull is on, I will shout it from the treetops, meanwhile I don't trust the stuff. This last rally was defensive and had zero fundamentals to back it up.

Silver to retest the highs, but that looks like all she has. The charts and my gut say down, down, down. I'll buy PL anywhere under 415, I like it. Gold will continue to languish before behind slammed "into the dirt, from whence it came." I forgot who quoted me recently, but thanks for reminding me of that one.

I told you that open interest was falling and the entire rally was short covering a week ago, as you were heralding a new gold bull. Its very convenient you recognize this fact after the rug is pulled out from under your rally. The trick to these markets is to act before the move, not after. Gold is weak.

You know my view: Gold will make new lows when the world wakes to another announcement of massive CB gold sales. This is a pretty simple and basic view, not even all that clever..

I got a little eager with my gold shorts at 322 and 324, but the recent rise to 338 allowed me to double up. I'll be in nice profits at 320 ( next week? )
What I find in all this is consistency. One word of warning: 200+ metric tons of gold has already been sold by a European CB. The announcement today was only the beginning but had nothing to do with the forthcoming announcement of the recent sale

A quote from the Bard seems appropriate:

He that had wit would think that I had none
To bury so much gold under a tree
And never after to inherit it.
Let him that thinks of me so abjectly
Know that this gold must coin a stratagem
Which, cunningly effected, will beget
A very excellent piece of villainy:
And so repose, sweet gold, for their unrest.

Away.. To go back in the shadows.

Thanks Roe & EB

(Sat Oct 25 1997 00:52 - ID#433171)
223, If I have to live in a cave for several years to hold gold I will.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:02 - ID#173274)
@the scene
NJ -- I can see 920 and even somewhat less in the Dec S&P, perhaps Monday, which would equate to another BIG drop in the DOW, but it should at least be able to take a big bounce off of that level. Never having been one who could make a consistent call on the paper though, that's about all I can say of 'possibilities' to the south side at this time. But who knows? It sure would be one hell of a day though, and I think, should it occur, one BIG buying day, IMHO! Good for at least a decent bounce I would think! God only could help the market if that bounce were not 'strong'!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:06 - ID#173274)
@the scene
RJ -- You got your play! What do you now see next on the horizon? More of the same?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:07 - ID#316409)
Ode To HepCat
A $325 call made Hepcat a star
And then with $310 he shot way under part
Yet the Weinies on Kitco who love to be wrong
All chimed in "Gold's a bargain, it's time to go Long!"

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:16 - ID#255283)
GOLD? Never heard of it!

aurator--Powder just about gone now until end of November. Thursday, I got a sh!tload of fsr.v at 1.45, and more paasf and ssrif. Am in paasf @ 7 9/16 and ssrif @ 4 . Also picked up some aem. Damnation, I am about as loaded to the gills with the Silver play as with the Gold stocks.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:18 - ID#316409)
@ RJ, 223
I knew an EGO like yours could never resist posting on a day like today RJ. Well you should be given your due, the fact that your an Ahole ( a word I've never used before on this forum but you taught me when you used it in posts to me many times ) ... anyway, that fact does not preclude you from having valuable market knowledge to share. Why don't you quit your petulant behaviour and come out and post like a man? Anyway, credit where credit is due. You and HEPCAT made good calls on Gold. You're in good company eh?

Your pal, LGB

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:23 - ID#316409)
@ 223
Oops forgot my reply to you 223. As to what I lost today in the market, not much. I'm not in stocks as I have stated repeatedly, I did take a small position in Magellan on Monday close till Wednesday, and glad I got out when I did. I have a small SSC position which I bought at 3/4 so I lost a little there today, and a few ounces of Gold which obvuously got hurt. I have a large position in Silver & Platinum, but that was all bought between $4.20 & $4.30 for Silver & $403 for PLatinum. Thinking of adding a lot more Silver, maybe leverage even ( buy purchasing some SSRIF and perhaps some options ) , which is risky for a "small player" but unlike RJ, I see a huge gain for silver within the next year. I can't cry much, my investment capitol is up approx. 42% for the year so far, and I'm just in cash and physical White metals at this point. Not much risk of major downturn in the Whites in my view though Gold is looking MIGHTY weak.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:23 - ID#173274)
@the scene
LGB -- I'd be most pleased to hear your target price and/or date, preferably both, when YOU think a turn will be at hand. You call others weinies. Well, put your best forward! Stop being so damned derogatory and put some insight into this place, if you have any. Some of us are damned well trying!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:25 - ID#258224)
@...Oscar performance by Al Pacino
I recommend Devil's Advocate. Definitely the best flick I seen this year. Should be an Oscar for Al Pacino.


Oh it's RJ
(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:25 - ID#191306)
He's back and he's quoting himself
Correct me if I'm wrong, RJ, but in order to
do this, wouldn't you have to be saving your
own posts since Kitco no longer provides this
option before October?

Whoever posted this: What is rainbow pie?

Eldo, where I drink, it is warm sake and
a cold, cold evening, with couples laughing
as they press out into the night to catch the train,
and a barmaid who lipstick looks like grape
Jolly Ranchers. It is also, unfortunately, a nearby table of
drunk businessmen, rending "I Left my Heart" about two
steps lower than the accompaniment would lead you
to believe.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:32 - ID#285298)
I wish MS62's would plumet
GOLDFINGER - RE: MS62 $20 US Gold. Selfishly speaking, I guess I am disappointed that the ask for these coins have not dropped. I would like to purchase some and have had the goal of having a gold type set in PGCS/NGC graded coins. These seem to be pretty close to the bottom in price and IMO the actual number of these coins in existence today is quite vague as so many have been melted down in the past. These coins regardless of the gold market represent a distinct time of rich US history. It continues to amaze me that a 1960's Barbie doll is worth more than some of these coins. IMO collectibles tend to go in and out of favor. I would like to think that graded US gold will be in vogue soon and that premiums will rise.

What do you think is a fair ask price in today's market for MS62 and MS63 PCGS/NGC graded $20 US Gold?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:33 - ID#316409)
@ ElDorado
Hey ElDorado, I've posted my progostications MANY times here and in ADVANCE of every move I've made, AND given my rationale each time. I bought Silver & Platinum, announced it here and why, and have said many times I have a little Gold but don't foresee much rosyness there. Today's activity doesn't change that. In fact, I see it going lower. My own theory is that the EU is manipulating it quite brazenly for obvious reasons related to the inroduction of the "Euro" on 1/1/99.

As for SIlver, I've given my target price rise, when and why, many times. Even explained whyu a few days ago. ( Can't remember the date/time though, unlike SOME folks my ego hasn't grown to the point where I save every public post I make ) .

The DOW? I pulled out in Septmeber at 8100-8200 and announced it publicly here, with the excpetion of a couple light hearted 1 day and 2 day plays where I've been in and out, ( also announced here in advance and both profitable ) .

I'll be doing plenty of posts with predictions and rationale from a "small player" who has been pretty damned sucessful in the next few months, but gimme a few days to digest todays activity. I'm still trying to decide whether to move more heavily into Silver! ( I most certainly won't be doing so with Gold )

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:35 - ID#285298)
I wish MS62's would plumet
GOLDFINGER - RE: MS62 $20 US Gold. Selfishly speaking, I guess I am disappointed that the ask for these coins have not dropped. I would like to purchase some and have had the goal of having a gold type set in PGCS/NGC graded coins. These seem to be pretty close to the bottom in price and IMO the actual number of these coins in existence today is quite vague as so many have been melted down in the past. These coins regardless of the gold market represent a distinct time of rich US history. It continues to amaze me that a 1960's Barbie doll is worth more than some of these coins. IMO collectibles tend to go in and out of favor. I would like to think that graded US gold will be in vogue soon and that premiums will rise.

What do you think is a fair ask price in today's market for MS62 and MS63 PCGS/NGC graded $20 US Gold?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:36 - ID#258224)
@...Who's jerking George's chain ?...and a few more cents
Who the tuck is keeping a log on GSC's score card. Read my keyboard...THE GOLD MARKET IS dosen't matter what GSC says or anyone else on this thread however creative and insightful. Our opinions don't matter as much as the BIG MONEY that drives this gold market. For those of you who have ridden this fixed marketplace on the right side of THE LAW I take my hat off and congratulate your good sense of the play-by-play action.

Following DA's well reasoned guess on stuff I also agree that, among other points, El Nino is a wild card in inflation going out 6-12 months. This mother of an El Nino should cause a some food stuff shortages and inflation should be far behind in the basics irrespective of index gerrymandering.

What gold would do in the face of inflation really depends on the Msters of the Universes who run the gold price. I guess it really is a New Era.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:40 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Hepcat -- I know a few places like that. Had a few good times in them myself, in numerous places. Don't recall a train station nearby though. Perhaps I wasn't looking for one.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:40 - ID#316409)
@HepCat, Starshine
HepCat, re your 01:25, you don't REALLY believe RJ would have ever let one of his own precious words fade away without being saved for posterity do you? Why, that'd be like Richard Nixon not recording his Oval Office conversations!

Starshine, A M/S 62 PCGS/NGC St. Gaudens can be had for about $450. The priced of these will not take a drop commensurate with the bullion price which is one of the very reasons that I don't buy bullion. I buy these when I want to own Gold. WHen it DOES go up, these will go up MORE than bullion coins. When it drops, there is a Numismatic value that cushions the fall. Saints didn't take any $70 drop this year like bullion has.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:48 - ID#258224)
@...somemore Bullsh!t to spread
My take is simple. The BIG MONEY has arranged the physical credit lines with the bullion banks. The game is simple. Wait for a hint of 'bad' news on gold and drop a tonne of sh!t on the market while shorting the mothertuck XAU/HUI at the same time. Easy money. Lots of suckers. New suckers born everyday. Makes one wonder though. What happens when the only players left are Shorts selling and covering each other's dumps ?

na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, GOODBYE

May the force be with you and yours.


(Sat Oct 25 1997 01:56 - ID#173274)
@the scene
LGB -- Yup. You have proclaimed a buy and sell at various times, I think. Kind of hard to remember with that constant whining in my ear though. Gonna have to do something about those damned blood suckers buzzing about so I can concentrate on the 'meat' of this place!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:03 - ID#316409)
Bzzzzzzz, slurp, bzzzzz
Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz, SHhhhlllurppppp, Bzzzzzzzz

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:12 - ID#411259)
..... OK, One More .....

I have every Kitco page from 6/4/97 through last week. Every poster, every word, every hour, every minute; with the single exception of the couple days the whole site was down. It is very interesting to see what some here have posted in that time. Like Orwell's "1984", they are very adept at rewriting history.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:14 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Bob -- Probably a fairly realistic scenario. Who knows though. Doesn't matter. Just make sure that they aren't catching you at the top of a move, and try like hell to not even get caught wrong at all! Easier said than done sometimes, and I'm no exception. I can't say for sure since I don't trade in stocks, but I personally feel that futures just may be a bit easier in this regard. Perhaps Nick or others can give more insight into trading stocks as he/they seem to have a system worked out in them. Could be that it is not any different than futures. I hope they might lend some more technical assistance/insight in this regard to the Kitco dwellers.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:18 - ID#316409)
Now you're getting the picture Bob! I disagree though with having "my hat off" to anyone who continues beating their head on a wall, when the handwriting has been on said wall for quite awhile.

The CB shenanigans have been widely publisized for all to read and know about, and all mainstream media have published many analysts redundant comments to the effect that "Gold is going nowhere but down because of the threat of CB selling from Europe" etc etc. many many times. Who can possibly be unaware of this now? We should admire folks who ignored this and kept that irrational GoldBug gleam in their eyes?

Let me tell you, as a successful and consistently winning poker player who plays in medium size games. I study many reference books on the subject, Odds, statistics, strategic principles, computer simulations of millions of hands, etc. etc. I learned a hard lesson early in my poker career. Quite simply, no matter HOW GOOD you become as a player, you CAN NOT beat a game that isn't being played straight. I got into a cheating situation once and when I figured out what they were doing, I stubbornly allowed my EGO to direct my actions in continuibng to play in an effort to beat the cheats by playing my hardest. Big mistake. I shoulda just pulled out a six gun and shot em!

I havn't forgotten that lesson, and I won't forget it. Now when I spot anything remotely like cheating, even a "teams" situation, I'm OFF that table and into a different game.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:18 - ID#57232)
@Home - 1:31AM my time
RJ: I think the equity market situation is a more serious question than that of gold. Do you think that the $60T derivatives market has linked the financial houses worldwide, so that turmoil in one part of the world now has a much bigger effect on other parts of the world? If so, is the world equities market shaking itself apart? I am still new at all this ( 3 years ) so I don't have any idea about how to verify this. Comments? How long do we have before complete meltdown?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:21 - ID#173274)
@the scene
RJ -- That's right! You had said that you ARE archiving this site! I know it's great to archive stuff, but why this site? What do you view within it as that important?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:22 - ID#403267)
@RJthats a great quote
RJ Glad you were listening in. Guess I started a trend there with the quotes, n'est c pas? In any case, feel free to enter in the future and correct us of any of our misconceptions, I do not mind being corrected if the correction is accurate. As your comments have proved to be. That also was a very appropriate quote from Shakespeare for golbugs! And it bothers me, an english major, as I do not remember it~! Of course in my present condition I am not sure I remember much ( but the spelling is still good ) but I will probably spend some of tomorrow looking for it ( or an aspirn ) . Good night ( for the third time ) and God Bless.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:22 - ID#57232)
@fair trading
LGB: Your point you just made about fair trading is I think the best thing you've ever said! How can we trade the gold market when the CB's hold all the cards, and we don't even know the rules? Even the silver market is probably rigged, because AG will have figured that out too!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:24 - ID#316409)
RJ @ 02:12
Oh and just who is it rewriting history RJ? Since you have every page, perhaps you'll be so kind as to post a compilation of every Post and every response you directed my way in September, so that we can all see for ourselves how "Uncivilized" and "Mean spirited" I am compared with your even handed, non adversarial style.

Feel free R.J. to repost anything written by anyone from anytime. We're all eyes. Just remember, there are others who have saved many of the Kitco pages as well.

Grateful Gold Bug a.k.a. "Bleeding Goldbug"
(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:24 - ID#433346)

I agree w/ you whole-heartedly. You be the man! "The Warren Buffet of Precious Metal Stocks".

In '87, Warren Buffet calmed investors' fears with his "buy & hold" mantra. I think it applies at this point in time with PMs & PM stocks. I will ride this one out.

Thanks for all the hard work and energy in sharing your insights!

Grateful Gold Bug a.k.a. "Bleeding Goldbug"

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:28 - ID#403267)
@Eldo 's archives
Eldo, you underestimate yourself. Kitco will be of historical interest in the coming market crash, gold bear/bull,k we are making history, we just don't know it. Like Cherokee says, no one knows as much as you think they do.
Now thats it!!!!!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:32 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Damn! I still hear that buzzing, whining noise about. Hell! Gonna have to break out the heavy artillery I guess.

Kitco Collective Consciousness
(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:32 - ID#274358)
SOS: RJ-Comeback!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Come back!!!! Your anonymous and don't forget that! Just ignore the ignoramouses!


You were RIGHT about gold taking a big hit!

Let by gones be by gones, forget ego stuff and COME Back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:35 - ID#255283)

Roebear--Titus Andronicus, Second Act Third Scene. Spoken by Hank Aaron

Hey RJ
(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:37 - ID#353132)
If you need the posts from the days when the site was down...
I have them.

( And man, was I brilliant. Those were some of the most
meaningful, cogent, adept posts this site has ever seen.
Plus I updated EBN gold. )

Collective Consciousness
(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:38 - ID#343175)

Okay, one more and then another and then another!!!! Start posting again!

Where do we go from here? You mentioned Jan 1998 as being a possible turning point for gold. You stated that you may turn bullish at that point in time.

Does today's actions change your views on a turn around for gold in early 1998?

Alot of insightful posters at this site value your opinion and appreciate all the time you spent in the past sharing your views.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:38 - ID#57232)
@Nearly asleep 1:46 AM
Roebear: Great comment - how did you remember what Cherokee said when he got the date for the great crash wrong - in a post to me! You must have a photographic memory -- you don't need to save these posts! Personally I think it would be hilarious to save all the posts, simply because what is happening here is a continous thought process, ebbing and surging from one topic to another - attempting to get at the truth, but still completely in the dark as to what is really happening -- except for a few who have been able to see some of the future. I sometimes wonder if Cherokee sees more than the rest of us, but gets the dates jumbled, so his talent doesn't help the rest of us anyway and Hepcat can predict the future, but is unable to explain what will happen to the rest of us, and has that very annoying posting style. All of us, regardless of our skills are individually blind in some way, but together we will be more successful. Sums up the whole human race, doesn't it?

LGB, Magnanimous
(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:39 - ID#316409)
@ RJ
Look RJ, why don't you just start posting again and to hell with whomever gives you flak? I'll even promise on my part to be civil ( Honest ) and will put aside my more agressive defensive instincts, not that I feel I was any part of your departure, but just in case.

Why do I say this? because I've come under withering attack here many times myself ( from you included ) but feel that ALL with something to contribue should post. Let the readers sort wheat from chaff. You think it's any easier to do so in the mainstream media? I think not.

I tire of having animoisty toward anyone, you included. And I will uncharacteristically even admit that you have far more knowledge and expertise in the metals markets than myself, and most others here. So why not join back in and ignore those you don't care for? Or just blast em with an "FU" response like I do ( tactfully of COURSE ) . You have a lot to contribute, you obviously like the site and are still reading it, you feel a desire to post, who the hell is standing in your way? So what if Bart doesn't do registration? You never know who that might have driven away. You can control a situation better by being involved than not.

I believe all with knowledge should jump in the fray. Sometimes I get carried away with the debate, it's in my nature. I get hypercritical, sarcastic, satirical. It's how you challenge weak ideas and refine your own thoughts. It's often misunderstood, but it works for me.

OK, I'm tired and being self indulgent, but there, I've extended myself at least. Come on back in R.J., I for one won't hassle you, and will respectfully consider your posts.

LGB the Schizo

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:40 - ID#57232)
Hepcat: You're losing it again -- and just when I thought you could hang together long enough to explain why you knew gold would go down!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:41 - ID#173274)
@the scene
JTF -- Believe it or not, I've been more than able to hold my own in this gold market as a trader, as several others have also. This is only to say that it IS possible, even being a 'bull' at heart!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:45 - ID#173274)
@the scene
LGB -- Re: your 2:39 posting. Now THERE is a posting I can HEAR! RJ, get your butt back here! I might add a few others of the dearly departed to that also!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:50 - ID#57232)
Eldorado: Appreciate your comments about surviving in gold -- I have traded mostly intermedate-term with gold mutual funds, and on average have made money on this over the last three years. I clearly need to lay off during the gold bears, as I didn't see it coming about 1 1/2 years ago. I don't have a clue why -- don't do anywhere near as well with stocks, and dismal with options. Been at it a little over three years, after doubling a small investment in the 1993 gold rally. My knowledge base was beginning to saturate until I found Kitco! Learned the most from traders such as you! Somthing about being equally comfortable both up and down I guess! It really is an art -- and I'm starting to get the hang of it.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:50 - ID#255283)
To The Bard

From King John--BASTARD: Bell, book, and candle, shall not drive me back, When gold and silver becks me to come on.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:54 - ID#316409)
Like Apples of GOLD in settings of SILVER is a word appropriately spoken. ( Solomon in Proverbs, at the risk of being redundant )

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:55 - ID#57232)
LGB: There's hope for you yet! Years ago my ego was like yours -- had it beaten down! Remember Larry Kudlow -- knew him though he never knew me. His ego was greater than yours and RJ's put together. Look what happened to him! Humility -- and you've got some -- is the only way to go, or you will never learn anything more. I don't plan to stop learning until I drop ( later I hope rather than sooner ) .

(Sat Oct 25 1997 02:56 - ID#316409)
Thanks JTF, humilty is the next trait I intend to MASTER! ; ) Night all

(Sat Oct 25 1997 03:01 - ID#57232)
@Hello down under!
Anybody listening - Aurator, the Nicks - I have a few posts left! Been up for about 22hours today between work and investing!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 03:04 - ID#57232)
Goodnight all!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 03:10 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Down $40k today, about half of recent profits.
Can't help but marvel at the "Slick" way they contrived
and executed this Slaughter. I think you have to be
"Nuts" fight this Gold War when the other side has
All the weapons!

Steve - Perth
(Sat Oct 25 1997 03:15 - ID#284170)

Investors hold their bets

By Adele Ferguson

The Australian sharemarket's love
affair with gaming stocks is over.
Drastic currency devaluations in
Asia, unrealistic earnings and cost
valuations and a realisation that
the sector has limited growth
potential have combined to bring
the stocks down. Some analysts
and fund managers believe the
gaming sector could drop another
10% or more before the year is out.

Crown Casino has led the decline, with shares in its
holding company, Crown Ltd, falling 48% compared to a
20% rise in the All Industrials. Elsewhere in the sector,
the share prices of Sydney Harbour and Burswood
casinos have been lacklustre. Burswood has fallen 8%
( before its recent corporatisation ) , Sydney Harbour is
trading only 7% higher in spite of the opening of the
permanent casino in November, and Jupiters is up only
6.5%. Yet, on a price/earnings basis, the stocks are
expensive compared to the industrial average of 18.

The unlisted Adelaide casino is in dire financial trouble
and has been put up for sale. The Canberra, Cairns and
Darwin casinos are also believed to be for sale. Even
poker machine supplier Olympic seems unable to find
an underwriter for a public float. Gaming machine group
Aristocrat Leisure is in trouble because of probity
investigations going on throughout the world.

It was a different story two years ago. From the start of
1995 until last October, the tourism and leisure index,
dominated by gaming stocks, rallied 64%. Since then, it
has shed 15% and the gaming stocks have led the fall.
Where two years ago investors were looking for quick
profits in the euphoria that followed the successful
Tabcorp float, many are now looking to lock in the
money they have made by selling out in expectation of
further declines.

Fund managers have seen it all before. Chris Hall,
portfolio manager at National Australia Asset
Management, says: "It was a less-developed industry
three years ago in Australia. Casinos were start-ups and
like in the US, the market overshot earnings
expectations and undershot cost structures when they
began operating," he says.

Crown was the leading light of the gaming sector. At the
temporary site, Crown was a low-cost operation and
very profitable. The market extrapolated those returns to
the permanent site, which was wrong. Hall says: "Crown
has a very high operating cost structure in the
permanent casino and the problem is there is little it can
do about it because one of its big selling points is the
level of service it gives customers."

However, some analysts and fund managers believe the
selling has been overdone. The market is also expecting
action in areas outside the casinos. Mark Dorney, a
director at ABN Amro Rothschild, says casinos have
reached a mature stage in the industry life cycle but
totalisators and state lotteries will show a lot of growth.
"The next phase in growth in gaming will be from these
areas as state governments move to privatise them,"
Dorney says.

Copyright  1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine, October 27, 1997.

Steve - Perth
(Sat Oct 25 1997 03:19 - ID#284170)
Hewlett-Packard chief shares his vision
By Robert Gottliebsen

Plus Countdown to chaos: Platt on Year 2000

The world head of Hewlett-Packard,
Lew Platt, is making two firm
predictions about the year 2000: one
is that he will not be travelling on any
aircraft on January 1 that year ( just in
case the millennium bug is on
board ) ; the other is that by then the
Internet will have dramatically
changed retailing, banking and many
other industries. He thinks it is a
wonderful time for educated young people, and that
Australia's greatest asset is its educated workforce - a
resource the world computer and telecommunication
industries are beginning to use.

Platt says that growth in electronic commerce will be
"pretty slow" for the next few years but will then turn up
dramatically. "The Net is not a place you think of to do
your primary shopping because the services and
merchandise it sells are pretty limited," he says. If he
were a retailer he would begin dabbling on the Net to get
some experience, even though it might cost money.

He says: "When it goes it is going to go very, very
quickly and those who are not experienced are going to
be left behind. I wouldn't predict the end of stores in 20,
25 or even 50 years. If you want to buy a tie you will
want to see the tie in person ... but if you want to buy ...
something that you know and are familiar with, then I
think the Net will become the place ( and ) it will be
inherently cheaper."

One industry that has come a long way is banking. Platt
says the physical infrastructure of banks is already
collapsing and that it is just as easy for an Australian to
have a relationship with a bank with the US as with an
Australian bank. "My bank could be anywhere," he
says. Telephone companies are heading in the same
direction, but they are subject to much more regulation
around the world.

Platt says that in predicting Internet growth, he is not
concerned about the long-haul infrastructure, such as
cables across the Pacific, but rather the connections
into the home and office: "The problem is that if I can't
sit in my office or if I can't sit in my home and have
reasonably good access to the Net; if I have to sit there
and wait too long for the interactions; I am just not going
to use the product." He says the Internet will be
retarded if high-speed connections are not made, but
that Australia, with broadband cable passing more than
2.5 million homes, "may be very fortunate".

Platt says he is "bullish" about Australia: "It seems to
encourage risk-taking and creative thinking. That is one
of the reasons we keep extending our operations down
here. We find the right kind of people ... I think there is
reason to be pretty optimistic about Australia."

Countdown to chaos

Lew Platt does not fear the world will end when the
clock ticks past midnight on January 1, 2000, but he
does believe there will be a "period of some substantial
problem and chaos". He says: "I think ... almost
everybody is behind where they should be in getting
their computer programs rewritten. There are quite a few
people who have not even yet figured out how badly off
they are and a lot of people whose plans for getting
everything fixed are too optimistic, and they probably
will not make it.

"I hope Hewlett-Packard is not in that category. But I
can tell you that even H-P recently took another look at
where we are vis a vis where we thought we would be at
this point of time and we are running behind our own
internal plans. So I think it is quite serious." Platt
believes people will struggle through for a while and
there will not be "a lot of aeroplanes falling out of the
sky and banks going broke". He says it is unlikely that
Europe will be ready for all the requirements of computer
changeover in 2000, and that Japan is not yet taking it
seriously. He is concerned at this situation.

Copyright  1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine, October 27, 1997.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 03:23 - ID#57232)
@Home one last post
Schippi: You are doing Kitco a great service with your FSAGX hourly graphs! It is quite clear to me that gold market "sales" are being used to prop up the markets. This has either got to be:
1 ) our AG propping up the dollar ( or the market ) . He did say that on occasion the Fed would intervene directly into the markets. or
2 ) the ECU/EMU crowd, keeping the dollar strong for favorable balance of payments so that the ECU/EMU deadline can be met. Once the ECU is launched they won't really care if dollar falls, because ( I ssupect ) they will expect everyone to use the ECU as the world's currency. Won't be smooth sailing, according to G Soros.

Wasn't that great? Right before the gold collapse, the Swiss were to sell 1440 tons of gold! The size of the whopper thinks the powers that be are getting destperate for some reason. Total market collapse pending?
Notice that silver, the CRB spot, and oil survived most of the turmoil so far? Interesting.......
Thanks again -- your info is always worthwhile ---up or down! Good night for real this time!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 03:31 - ID#173274)
@the scene
JTF -- I can appreciate the difficulty in trading that you've been through. Been there, done that, etc. I really think that when you invest in mutual funds though, you kind of have to grit you teeth and dive in. There is no pertinent chart that might guide you, in my unknowing estimation, that you would even have in individual stocks. I suppose you might evaluate them all collectively, but, what a job! Beyond that, you are hoping that the timing is right, which can be totally different for each of the stocks contained therein, but collectively are working to the positive side. You've got more faith than I do, in that regard, and I will not presume to know whether it is right or wrong. I can only speak for myself in saying that I need a definitive number and a chart in front of my eyes with various 'virtual' lines I have visualized or drawn about it to be able to begin to trade anything. I don't think funds are workable in that manner, but I might also be wrong on that count. But being in funds can be OK once a direction or certain an 'accumulation' scenario is ascertained. Guess you just have to watch a different set of criteria than a simple day type trader like me. RJ says he'll cry from the rooftops when he sees the trend change. Perhaps there will be at least a couple others also. If I can see that far, I will also, but typically, I might only see just ahead at short term breakpoints or other 'signs'. Not much help for the longer term. Only sometimes, something a bit more 'major', and for whatever that might be worth. Just being truthful about how I view the 'system' and try to 'operate' within it. And I will be the first to claim that I am by no means a professional at it, though, always getting better! May all your trades do well!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 03:50 - ID#173274)
@the scene
I think that I will also call it a night. Between yesterday, last night, today and tonight, I've been up WAY toooooo many hours! And now a weekend of work around the place. Perhaps some R&R too. Later, all!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 03:59 - ID#57232)
Eldorado: I don't know why I'm still up -- I can tell you why mutual funds work for me. I have made composites of all of the top ten holdings of each of the Fidelity select funds. I just assume that those that respond well to the appropriate market ( whatever it is ) are reasonably well managed. Relatively short term trading reduces risk, though I turned a profit into a loss when BRE-x brought down the Fidelity gold funds. I sold the day deGuzman fell out of the helicopter, but Fidelity was very clever, I suspect, and devalued their index on that same day, despite the fact that the BRE-x market was closed! Very clever -- I could not bail out in time -- and they would not tell me if they had Bre-x holdings left.

Here is the key point -- most of the good stocks I've found have to be held a year or more before one makes any significant profits, because of price fluctuations. In contrast the Select mutual funds behave like the indexes re: XAU and FSAGX. I can trade FSGAX relatively short term -- a month or more, and make money on trends. On an individual stock, the fluctuations prevent this. This is why I failed miserably at first with stocks, because I assumed naively that I could predict trends in stocks better than mutual funds -- just the opposite applies!
It took me a year and a half of stock losses before I caught on to what I was doing! I now have started to get wise with options, but only expend a little money on this, because I don't know how to work the odds. Have read both of trader vic's books -- an odd's master if there ever was one -- but still don't have the concepts completely under control!
When you have time, I'd like very much what works for you -- we will all benefit, I think, from such exchanges!

here JTF
(Sat Oct 25 1997 04:25 - ID#353132)
is what is going to happen to you
Tuesday, October 28 - Eat a bad pizza
Wednesday, October 29 - Find coins on the sidewalk, meet an
old friend when you are bent over picking up coins on the sidewalk
Thursday, October 30 - You might get a speeding ticket this day,
definitely will get a phone call around 7:30 p.m. from someone
in telemarketing.
Friday, October 31 - Lose one of your socks in the laundry,
have a great day otherwise.

Please keep your speed down this week. You may get a ticket
or narrowly avoid an accident if you are not careful ( although
it won't be your fault ) .

(Sat Oct 25 1997 04:26 - ID#396137)
@Hope all's well
The tree was shook prety good ey???

Been reading your stuff and notice that LGB is now using #316409,
fairly regularly- still would like to clear up the mystery as to
who the the other LGB's were #310407, and 315256 ????
Can anyone assist?

Back to gold- checking old charts of ASA, HM PDG etc. This sharp ,
sudden move down after a start up usually came just before a large up
move in the golds. Sooo for you long termers- patience, or should it
be patiants??

(Sat Oct 25 1997 04:28 - ID#57232)
Hepcat: And I thought I was going to learn about gold! And all Ii get is a coin? If not for me how about the rest of the Kitco crowd!

now that I know RJ is recording this
(Sat Oct 25 1997 04:37 - ID#341144)
I just want to say hello to my producer and all my homies
Fiona Apple - I think the worst gift you ever got
was that book of poetry by Maya Angelou. Read some
James Agee, what little of it there is.
Bronson Pinchot - Is that your real voice on Meego?
It's horrendous. Your show goes the way of Tonza
Danza real soon.
The Cast of Union Square - Let's see what happens
when you move to Wednesday ( for a preview, see
Suddenly Susan, Naked Truth, Men Behaving Badly,
etc. )
Ewan McGregor - Opening monologue of "Trainspotting"
was to die for. Only thing I've ever pinched off the
net. I realize you didn't write it, but I don't know
the name of the guy who did. Could you pass that on?
That movie will outlive anything you ever do.
Livan Hernandez - Endorsements in your future.
But not many. We don't have noncontraband
products from Cuba.

hey JTF, at least you get a coin
(Sat Oct 25 1997 04:40 - ID#353132)
I haven't found a quarter on the street in ages
And the only time I found any currency, some guy claimed
it as his the moment I extracted it from the seam between
the sidewalk and the curb

(Sat Oct 25 1997 04:42 - ID#411259)
..... LGB .....

An olive branch offered, and accepted

I admit to certain spiteful posts directed at you, to which I think of as responses to others of yours. I am sure that your view is as mine: that you were responding to offensive posts directed at you. A tortured sentence, that, but acknowledgment that I bear no small responsibility for the bad blood between us. I once called you HepCat and was later proven wrong. I would post specifics but to what purpose? This would serve to reopen festering wounds to nobody's benefit but to claim righteousness, which I suspect would be equally claimed by us both.

I see that some of my words directed at you did hurt, and for that, I apologize. When I quit reading your posts, I thought that it was behind us; both having had our say. I was surprised to see a continuing animosity and I truly reassessed the consequences of my own actions.

As for my vaunted ego, I have conceded on these pages that I would never suffer a deficit. Please understand, trading metals is what I do for a living. All day, every day. I think I'm pretty damn good at it. I have heard your own pride at your work, and a knowledge of satellites and communications that comes from years of experience. I do tend to speak of the metals as if my opinion is carved into Moses's Tablets. Some of this is my nature, and some is learned over years of dealing with successful people. A big money client does not want wishy washy advice. He/She wants to know you have the courage of your convictions before they trust lots-o-cash to you. Who among us does not speak with pride and confidence about those things we hold dear and have worked a lifetime to excel?

I recall a client who, upon first contact, gave only his last name. I asked what his given name was and he recommended I call him Mr. __________. I thanked him and told him I would not be his broker. He was astounded and a bit angry. This man was the head of a very large company and not used to being told no. I told him that he has people defer to him all day long, and I asked if he had any "yes men" working for him. He told me he did. I explained that when it comes to his money, does he wish to be told what he wanted to hear, or be told the truth? The world if full of brokers who will kiss ass and be afraid to tell the client when things aren't going so well. I told him: up or down, he will always hear the strait story from me. If he can't give me his first name, we would never deal as equals, and if we couldn't form that relationship, he should find another broker. Would he like me to cater to his position or make him money? This man turned into one of my closest clients. Successful people don't want their ass kissed, they want to know what works.

This story to illustrate a measure of arrogance on my part, but one that has served well through the years. I think you would be surprised to meet me in person as some at this site have. My manner is very casual and not even remotely as stilted as my writing can sometimes be.

I have noted that the finest among us simply let insults roll off them with no compelling need to respond or retaliate. I sometimes wish for that ability and, believe it or not, try it in everyday practice.

I admire your offer of reconciliation. It takes guts to be the first to offer his hand. I accept the offer and bury all past ills, real or perceived.


I have received more than 50 e-mails in the last week from readers of this site about the recent goings on. Many were people who never post but are every bit as hooked on this site as the rest of our more vocal types. We sometimes forget, in the heat of the moment, that anybody in the world can tune in. When we put our poorer foots forward, it is for the world to see.

Plus you're going to meet that friend
(Sat Oct 25 1997 04:43 - ID#176222)
Remember this as your scraping around for loose money
Don't appear too interested, or your friend will think
"how tacky". Please report back the minute any of these
things come true. But of course, please forget them
immediately so they don't actually influence your
plans next week ( you will not actually order the bad pizza,
it will be provided ) .

(Sat Oct 25 1997 04:54 - ID#432148)
REIFY: Ur 04:26 - When we first started getting numbers LBG had ten I counted so either he has a lot of standins or he is one fine computer whiz. I never underestimate his brains.
I agree with your observation on the majors when they break big and bot a little NEM yesterday. Of course the last time I thot I was buying a major it was Bre-x so what do I know. Since I bot my first in '59 ( Dome Mines ) however the golds have given me a reasonable return and a lot of sleep at nite. I have to think when some Swiss economists start wanting to sell gold we are at or near a bottom. I do not think the Swiss people will vote for this move. This is as bad as it can get or we are in a "new era" and how many false "new eras" have there been? That is what they were saying in the Summer of '29 I have read. Good luck.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 05:03 - ID#432148)
RJ: Ur 04:42 to LBJ. Pearls of wisdom and like LBJ I rank you right up there in the brains catagory. Well said.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 05:04 - ID#432148)
Whoops, LGB of course. Never gave LBJ credit for any brains.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 05:43 - ID#26793)
H.K. Widens Band for Interbank Overnight Rate

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority said it widened the band for its overnight interbank rate by
100 basis points in anticipation the rate will experience further volatility. On Thursday Hong Kong's
overnight interbank interest rate rose to as high as 300 percent amid speculation the Hong Kong
dollar's peg to the U.S. dollar could break. As Hong Kong interbank rates rise, local banks may
prefer to borrow from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which the defacto central bank doesn't
want. The widening of the liquidity adjustment facility -- the band within which the overnight Hong
Kong Interbank Offered Rate should move -- could mean the de facto central bank foresees further
speculative attack on the Hong Kong dollar peg.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 05:46 - ID#26793)
( Korea trades for a half day on Saturdays )
Korean Stocks Extend Rout on Currency, Rates Concern

South Korea's benchmark stock index dropped to a five- year low as concern spread that a
weakening won and rising interest rates will hurt companies such as Samsung Electronics Co.
Plunging Asian stocks and currencies, as well as Intel Corp's decision to postpone the opening of a
$1.3 billion plant because of flagging demand for some of its chips, added momentum to the
decline. The benchmark KOSPI index of 774 companies dropped 22.44, or 3.93 percent to
548.47, its lowest close since October 1992. Eleven shares dropped for every one that rose, with
65 shares unchanged.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 05:55 - ID#26793)

(Sat Oct 25 1997 06:00 - ID#26793)

(Sat Oct 25 1997 06:10 - ID#26793)

(Sat Oct 25 1997 06:24 - ID#26793)

(Sat Oct 25 1997 06:43 - ID#364147)
@ Beautiful Sunrise
@ this time of year the sun rises directly over the center of Scaterie Island and this one is a beaut....AWESOME!! Mornin Donald....

(Sat Oct 25 1997 06:51 - ID#26793)
Hi Ted: Still dark here, and raining lightly. Better than Denver this morning with 18 inches of snow. I was in Maine this week for a few days, beautiful this time of year.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 07:09 - ID#364147)
@ Donald
We got our first dusting of snow yesterday but this morning is incredibly clear...Where'd ya go in Maine??

(Sat Oct 25 1997 07:31 - ID#252127)
Some thoughts

The Swiss are a well off people, the possible gold sale equals about $12 billion of paper currency. We all see how the SEA paper currencies taking major hits while the dollar is held artificially high by US Treasury purchases. Are the dollar and the US market next?

I can see some reasons for the possible Swiss sale:
Switzerland's financial institutions may be more involved in risky currency derivitive schemes than meets the eye and she has no alternative, but to give every indication that these derivatives of paper products are sound in the unsound enviroment we are in.
"What better way to do this than to announce the selling of useless non-interest bearing gold".
Also the Swiss stock markets, like our own is overvalued.
The Swiss also are being castigated by the world press as creepy criminals. No one seems to recognize that NY and London Banks were the primary funders Nazi Germany. Then we have the stories of former dictators with large accounts in Switzerland, but no one looks elsewhere for the hidden loot. The Swiss may be accepting the position of fall guy under duress.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 07:43 - ID#26793)
Ted: We went to Freeport, checking out kayaks at LL Bean. We can start a Kitco Kayak Klub ( KKK )

(Sat Oct 25 1997 07:45 - ID#252127)
Some thoughts

The Swiss are a well off people, the possible gold sale
equals about $12 billion of paper currency. We all see
how the SEA paper currencies taking major hits while the
dollar is held artificially high by US Treasury
purchases. Are the dollar and the US market next?
Why would the Swiss propose to sell 1440 tonne of gold considering the present situation?

I can see some reasons for the possible Swiss sale:

Switzerland's financial institutions may be more involved in risky currency derivitive schemes than meets the eye
and she has no alternative, but to give every indication
that these derivatives of paper products are sound in the unsound enviroment we are in.
"What better way to do this than to announce the selling
of useless non-interest bearing gold".

Also the Swiss stock markets, like our own is overvalued.

The Swiss also are being castigated by the world press as creepy criminals. No one seems to recognize that NY and
London Banks were the primary funders Nazi Germany. Then we have the stories of former dictators with large
accounts in Switzerland, but no one looks elsewhere for
the hidden loot.
The Swiss may be accepting the position of fall guy under duress.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 07:49 - ID#26793)
Jack: Barron's has a short article today about the possibility that China may devalue. That could lead to another round of currency devaluations by those who have already devalued in SEA.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 07:52 - ID#364147)
Sounds good ta me Donald....

(Sat Oct 25 1997 07:57 - ID#252127)

If China does in fact devalue, it may be a good reason to take in the Hong Kong $ and more importantly ( to China ) Hong Kong's monetary reserves.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 08:04 - ID#26793)

(Sat Oct 25 1997 08:12 - ID#26793)
Jack: Reading further in Barron's a different article is relating the Japanese failure of 1989-90 to the current situation in Asia. The deflation in Japan starting in 1990 caused China to devalue in 1994. In order to compete with China the rest of SEA is deflating now and sending deflation around the world. No one will escape. Manufacturing overcapacity abounds. Too much stuff, not enough creditworthy customers.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 08:14 - ID#364147)
@ Canada Post
Away to Canada Post ta mail MR.EB his pics....RJ:welcome back!!--but stay this time......Hepcat: I await your next call....on bended knee..

(Sat Oct 25 1997 08:36 - ID#26793)
October 21, 1997
The DJUA is considered a good indicator of the direction of rates. That
average has been strong lately ( up over 1% today ) and I'm interested in your
thoughts regarding the current wave position. Are we primarily concerned
with not taking out the high above 256? Are there any other levels that are
worth watching? This board is one of the best things in cyberspace. I
remain a loyal EWT ( going on 14 years ) and EWTU subscriber! --Bob K.
Reply from Bob Prechter

Great to hear from a long-timer. Tops typically display divergence and
non-confirmation, so a lower peak in the DJU vs. 1993 would support the bearish
case. However, it is not clear what the implication of a minor new high would be
when the DJI has risen 130% during that time. Obviously the DJU is lagging the
major uptrend substantially. Also, in 1929, the DJU peaked two weeks AFTER the
DJI. ( This time span might be off by a few days, as we did a quick check with
weekly data only. ) I'll bet you hadn't heard that before. By the way, no one knew
that fact in 1929 because the DJU was not published until December 1929. This
time, people will see any new high, and it will be labeled bullish. Just remember
that history says it ain't necessarily so. --RP

(Sat Oct 25 1997 08:52 - ID#289349)
I'm a small "speculator" that needs to position himself to be better able to take advantage of moves in the price of silver. Currently I have physical possesion of about 2000 oz. of silver in 100 oz. bars. I want to move this silver somewhere where I can buy/sell with a phone call. How does this work? What's the typical cost for a trade? What are the storage costs? Any recommendations?

Bob M
(Sat Oct 25 1997 08:58 - ID#26059)
But coins of key or semi key dates in low population grades, graded by NGC or PCGS..but only but the "ball busters" those that fall into the upper end of the grade, with eye appeal out the you know what. Coins like this in the last year have risen 15%+ in the face of lackluster gold and silver markets. A much safer play on the metals, but I caution you, learn what you are doing before you jump. Being a coin dealer myself, when people ask me about the coin business I respond "A handful of people make a lot of money, and a lot of people lose a lot" Caution is in order...

Bob M
(Sat Oct 25 1997 09:00 - ID#26059)
Silver- you dont need to store can lock in a price with a large trading firm with a phone call and then ship the bars to them and receive payment. Probably would save you some me and I can give you some info on trading firms I have dealt with

(Sat Oct 25 1997 09:05 - ID#36965)
This may have been posted already but it is an interesting argument that gold is getting ready for the big move despite yesterday severe performance and that the continuing slump in paper will drive the investor there. I think this article is picking up on what George Cole has been saying all along.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 09:09 - ID#289349)
BOB - What I'm looking for is a place where I could kinda "deposit" the silver ( warehouse? ) yet be able to sell it/buy it back on a moments notice. This might be a stupid question, but I hear alot about the comex warehouse, why couldn't I just put it there?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 09:09 - ID#261269)
Bart's "Joke" .. great wit!!
Anybody notice the opening screen of this site ... bart's little joke:

GROUP THERAPY FOR GOLD INVESTORS .... Way to go Bart ... and, yes ....


Bob M
(Sat Oct 25 1997 09:28 - ID#26059)
Silver- I do not have any info on the Comex warehouse..but with the bigger dealer dealers, you can lock in both buy and sell prices on the phone

(Sat Oct 25 1997 09:56 - ID#333131)
Good morning all: Comex volume 130k. Interesting times ahead.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 09:57 - ID#348286)
@Asia - Monday Morn
The 3.93 percent drop in the Korean market Saturday does not surprise me a bit. Looks like HK got ahead of itself with the Friday rally, and the buyers will regret it on Monday morning.
Everyone was expecting the Dow to be up on Friday with the HK rally, but alas it went the other way.
Looks like all financial assets ( including Gold ) are being devalued.
Bonds are up because they are thought to be a safe place to park your cash.
This one has some way to go yet............

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:04 - ID#401460)
Group Therapy
I just got on for a Quick look. never noticed before.
Does the LINE have a new Title? Ha Ha if so sure is appropiate today.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:04 - ID#433171)
If you can buy these inexpensive numismatic coins for the "Ask Bid"and actually locate them you are doing well. I know how to locate some if you are serious, otherwise keep chewing on it.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:08 - ID#433171)
Any downside on white gold.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:09 - ID#348286)
Gold Mining will be decimated if the CB's follow through with the threats/plans, Cartel may be the only answer ---- "Meanwhile, Echo Bay Mines Ltd. said Friday it is walking away from plans to buy a controlling interest in the Kingking copper-gold project in the Philippines. Echo Bay, one of North America's high-cost gold producers, is reviewing all its projects. "
Saturday, October 25, 1997
Gold hammered

Producers hit hard as bullion plunges to 12-year low of US$307.30 on news Switzerland may sell half its massive reserves

Gold weighs on Bay Street

Mining Reporter The Financial Post
Gold investors sent the price of bullion into a free fall on Friday, panicking on news the Swiss government may sell more than half its gold reserves.
Gold fell by a numbing US$15.70 an ounce, closing at US$307.30, a 12 1/2-year low.
The crash obliterated the gains made in a brief rally in late September and, with them, hopes for a meaningful recovery in this year's dismal gold market.
The last time the world saw a gold price as low as Friday's was in December 1984.
The share prices of gold producers also fell sharply Friday.
The Toronto Stock Exchange's gold and precious metals subindex collapsed by 8.42%, closing down 739.84 points to 8047.76.
Among companies, the biggest percentage losers were Euro-Nevada Mining Corp. ( EN/TSE ) , down 17.32%, or $4.65, to $22.20, and Pegasus Gold Inc. ( PGU/TSE ) , down 14.01%, or $1.10, to $6.75.
Canada's two major gold companies also suffered share price declines.
Shares of Placer Dome Inc. ( PDG/TSE ) fell 10.69%, or $2.80, to $23.40, on trading of 2.1 million shares. Barrick Gold Corp.'s stock ( ABX/TSE ) , meanwhile, closed down 7.16%, or $2.35, to $30.45, on volume of 1.3 million shares.
The carnage was touched off by news the Swiss finance ministry and the country's national bank had approved in principle a plan to sell up to 1,400 tonnes of gold, or just over half the country's reserves, to reduce the amount of gold backing its currency.
The amount is 1,000 tonnes more than what Switzerland has already said it will sell over 10 years to finance a fund for Holocaust survivors. The idea will be put to Swiss voters in a referendum in 1999.
Gold production from mines around the world totals about 2,300 tonnes a year.
Sales of bullion by central banks have formed a dark cloud over the gold market this year. In July, for instance, the price plunged when the Reserve Bank of Australia revealed it had sold 167 tonnes of gold during the first half of 1997.
Yesterday, analysts held out little hope for a near-term recovery.
Martin Murenbeeld, an independent analyst in Victoria, B.C., said the only thing that will give gold a meaningful push is a crash in North American equity markets.
"It needs a crash of about 20% over a three-month period," Murenbeeld said. "Then you would get a significant kick in the gold price -- up to 10%."
This week's Asian equity meltdown, however, is bad news for gold because it will likely dampen jewelry demand in the region, he said. Asian jewelry purchases are a significant driver of gold demand.
Murenbeeld said speculators betting on a price decline are once again building up large short positions in bullion. This month's brief gold price rally was attributed to short sellers covering their positions by buying the precious metal.
John Ing, president of Maison Placements Inc. in Toronto, said Friday's news was particularly alarming to investors because Switzerland has traditionally been one of gold's staunchest defenders.
Both Ing and a third analyst, Victor Flores of Marleau Lemire Inc., said investors should look for low-cost, low-debt gold producers for investment possibilities.
Meanwhile, Echo Bay Mines Ltd. said Friday it is walking away from plans to buy a controlling interest in the Kingking copper-gold project in the Philippines. Echo Bay, one of North America's high-cost gold producers, is reviewing all its projects.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:11 - ID#251147)
Chinese devaluation

The US gov't has devalued officially twice in 1932 and 1972.

In addition to this, the USA currently revalues and devalues almost on a montly basis. I think a china devaluation woould be a market event but not an unusual one.

An Aside.

By older brother was traveling through India and Pakistan when Nixon devalued the dollar. Overnight, he found that his yankee dollars were worthless; I mean WORTHLESS. He couldn't buy or exchange them for anything. Fortunatly for him he was traveling with a German kid who had Marks.

In the current market things can happen so fast that there is no way to react after the fact. Deversifiction is the best I think. Perhaps 50% T.Bonds and 50% gold.

Any commments?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:16 - ID#287279)
Will Stock Freefall Send Investors to Gold?

By Pierre Belec

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Wall Street is forever dodging bullets, and the latest shot came from a
panic sell-off in Hong Kong stocks.

The ripple effect on the global stock market shook investors' confidence but it also gave gold buffs
another reason to gold-plate their investment portfolios.

Stocks spun lower this week, taking their cue from the Hong Kong market's worst collapse in history
on concern that the country might be losing a war with currency speculators.

Hong Kong's blue-chip Hang Seng Index crumbled more than 10 percent, and tumbled 18.1 percent
for the week, becoming the latest casualty of what has come to be known as the "Asian flu."
Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines have undergone similar shakeouts since

By Friday, the Hong Kong market rallied, but the Dow Jones industrial average skidded further on
lingering concern that the crisis may not be over. The Dow closed down 132.36 points at 7,715.41
after plummeting 187 points on Thursday. For the week, it was down 131.62 points.

The plunge that spread from Southeast Asia to Europe and finally to the United States reminded
investors that the world's biggest stock market was vulnerable to events in faraway markets and of
the need to find safer havens, such as gold.

"We're seeing some interest for gold stocks as a hedge against the Asian crisis," said Douglas Cohen,
equity reseach analyst for Morgan Stanley.

"These stocks have been beaten down so significantly that they have a lot more room on the upside
than on the downside," he said.

Indeed, things may be turning up for gold mutual funds, which had their best showing of the year in
the third quarter.

Lipper Analytical Services said the total return of gold-oriented mutual funds rose 1.3 percent in the
latest quarter after dropping 12.2 percent in the second and slipping 7.8 percent in the first quarter.
The gain was the biggest since a 23.6 percent rise in the first quarter of last year.

Cohen said that if the Asian financial turmoil triggers a bigger freefall in stocks, gold will "assert its
historical role and outperform." Gold has traditionally risen when stocks have been going through
rough times.

Many financial advisers are now recommending that investors hold between 5 percent and 10
percent of their portfolios in gold-related assets.

For the last four years of huge stock market gains, it has been hard to build a bullish argument for

The precious metal was again under the gun Friday as it retreated to the lowest level in more than a
decade at $308 an ounce on news of a Swiss proposal to sell 1,400 metric tons of gold if it is
approved by a nationwide referendum set for 1999.

James Dines, publisher of the Dines Letter, said gold will turn out to be one of the greatest sleeping

"The Asian turmoil looks like a very strong kind of buying signal for gold because we are getting that
flight to safety and the scared Asian investors are going into the ultimate asset," he said.

Central bank selling and a strong dollar have contributed to the bearish sentiment toward gold, whose
appeal as an insurance policy against hyperinflation has also been undermined by the lowest inflation
rate since the 1960s.

But the gold bugs who tend to have an apocalyptic view of financial markets believe that when
everybody else is bearish, then, it is time to be bullish.

And, a worldwide correction in stocks could bring an accelerated rise in gold, which has attracted
only the most adventurous speculators in the last few years.

Analysts said the metal's fundamentals are improving because depressed gold prices have caused
mines to close while demand is growing.

"Supply-demand is very closely balanced, and any supply dislocation would cause a very tight
market," said John Geraghty at North American Equity Services, a consulting firm.

He said that "political" supplies from the central bank selling have kept a lid on gold. The leading
central banks of Europe have been steady sellers of gold to raise money to pay for popular social
programs and balance their budgets.

"Effectively, they have been burning the furniture to keep their houses warm," Geraghty said.

Geraghty said that the inevitable results of the central banks' selling is bullish for gold.

"As the banks divest themselves of their gold and their supplies become less of a psychological
overhang, the more likely the value of gold will increase," he said.

On Friday, the Nasdaq composite index closed down 20.33 points at 1,650.92. For the week, it
was down 15.93.

The Standard & Poor's index of 500 was off 9.05 points at 941.64, and stood 2.52 lower from a
week ago. The American Stock Exchange index fell 2.21 to 701.18, and was up 3.00 on the week.

The NYSE Composite lost 3.72 to 495.77. For the week, it was off 8.00 points.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:19 - ID#433171)
Any market always looks the worst just before prices start to rise. This principal also applies to gold. I have seen it time and time again. Keep your cool.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:21 - ID#347447)
Hat off to RJ and hepcat ( though they each might forgive me for mentioning both in same sentence ) for their market perspicacity. Or is it "cat"-sity? I do love a good predictor, adore brilliant minds, and can sometimes overlook personality disorders. Seems I've lost a sock here in the laundry as well, and I can't wait to bite into that bad pizza coming up. Nice going lads.

Lucky Strike
(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:23 - ID#320158)
and the Nuggets
Flip Side ( to the tune of "Memories Are Made Of This" ) :

Take one lovely ounce of gold,
Enchanting, wonderful to hold,
Take more,
Lots more,
Back home,
And store,
Bankruptcies are made of this.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:24 - ID#60253)
Why do the Swiss want to sell gold over
many years when they could sell the
entire lot in a week? Yes, the worldwide
trading volume in gold could take the
whole load and not drop the price below
Fridays close! The reason for the "many
long term selling announcements" is to keep
the price down over time. The CBs would
have you think that their selling would "crush
the price"! The real effect would be exactly
the opposite. The major world buyers would
line up at the door to buy "the last sale of
the century! Have you heard any CBs putting
out "Proposals to Sell" for their entire stock
of gold? Of course not, the response to buy
would give off the absolute wrong signal and
cause a revaluation of gold .

It is a far better use of a public asset when they
use a small anount of it over time to ensure a
reasonable price for OIL! If all gold was sold
quickly, there would be no trading medium for
deals! How far do you think an IOU would
go if it didn't have gold in the background worth
perhaps a 1,000 times it's current commodity

So what good is this information to the small
investor? Not much if you run out and buy gold
options, gold stocks, gold futures, etc.! Did you
think the following quotes were good for those

"That is why some "Big Traders" are holding
ONLY gold as events unfold."

" One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive
the financial crush once the CBs stop selling!

"The market is changing now,,, it will go up but you
will not be happy with the outcome."

"What is happening now is far, far larger than the
interest of a few traders or mining companies. They
will be stepped on!"

Gold bullion is being accumulated and cornered
on a worldwide scale not seen before! UNDERSTAND
THIS: The people who are buying do not expect the
price to rise until the CBs slow their selling. They do
expect the value of gold to increase in the future even as
the banks sell into a rising market. This will happen
as the sheer volume of trading completely overwhelms
the entire worldwide market! The big buyers fully well
expect gold to stop all trading as the governments
enact DRACONIAN MEASURES to deal with a
worldwide currency problem. The public in general
will ask for these measures and to that effect, all
paper connected to bullion will become "fair game"!

My projections and -----:
The gold market is not the same as it was in the past,
so throw your charts and TA away! Nor will the
gold market be the same in the future as it is today,
so don't use paper substitutes! Today, gold is much
more valuable than it has ever been! During your time
a straight forward investment in "bullion only ' will far
surpass any other asset you could hold!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:27 - ID#31868)
jkld - I am glad to see someone who relates an experience which proves that paper can be accepted one moment and in the next becomes wallpaper.

It is, too me, a given. One of the simple basic of life. Perhaps we should change the ole phrase. There are three certainties in life. Death, taxes and gold.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:32 - ID#408152)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Ted: It's been over four hours since you posted your "Beautiful Sunrise" post, and the sun still hasn't risen in this sack of tomatoes! You sure it's coming up?

And is anyone at Kitco sure gold will rise again?

I am.

We must remember that Swiss sales will not commence until the year 2000 or after. It is far from certain that the Swiss populace will permit their gold to be sold -- as they must before such sales may proceed -- particularly when they learn that the motivation largely is to punish the country for its transgressions during and after the holocaust, and that a significant portion of the proceeds will go to holocaust victims.

For the Swiss people to acquiesce to this proposed sell-off is as inconceivable to me as would be the U.S. electorate voting in 1910 to sell off all the gold in Fort Knox to pay reparations to Native Americans -- or to blacks.

It just could not have happened then and, IMHO, will not happen in Switzerland, never mind whether or not it is the right thing to do. We're dealing here with national pride and national humiliation, and must never underestimate the tendency of a people to refuse to see their actions as evil.

Also, Friday's drop was comparable to the drop we saw when Australia announced the sale of one-seventh as much gold. I believe that if we see no further decline Monday, then we will see no further declines on such news unless the U.S. makes a similar announcement.

Here comes the sun, now.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:33 - ID#251213)
Take a look at Rodium

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:33 - ID#261118)
Try this:I know folks who use this however I don't myself so don't take it as a personal recomendation. Back in the big bull of 79-80, there were less restrictions on companies that offer such services as this and some burned their depositors badly; of these folks, I've herd good things so far.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:36 - ID#389300)
To my friend RJ. You are full of yourself! Some trader!

Big Time Tom
(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:39 - ID#212320)
For several months, I've been unable to post to this group; everytime I would click on the "add comment" button, I would get a 404 error message. So I'm now trying a different browser, and this is my test to see whether it works.


(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:41 - ID#33164)
JTF's Post from? re CYCLES
Afternoon All!

Please can you help?

I saw a post from this am? last night? from JTF re CYCLES, in which he posted an URL, and now I can't find it!!

I think JTF must be sleeping now-he seems to have been up for days without a break. I'll post him on Monday with an e-mail where he can contact F. Crooks [who doesn't have a computer, I believe]

I'd really like to get into that 'Cycles' site, and thank you in advance.


(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:42 - ID#338126)
Hello Mike Sheller:

I'm very pleased with GSTD. In this poor gold market ( currently ) gstd is managing to rise!!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:42 - ID#261118)
Tolerant1 and I have substantial positions in SSRIF.This company is a pure silver play and has worked very hard to prove up reserves in the 200 million area hopefully by early 98. They say they want to move tword more production however the real story is their proven and possible reserves/ongoing drill results. These are the kind of people production companies want to strike deal with. Their current share price to p&p reserves ratio is attractive to me. I'm in this security at an average of 3 and3/4 dollars per share ( US ) . The close of $4 and1/4 is, In my opinion a good entry point for perhaps a third of what you intend to own; you might ask Tolerant1 what he/she thinks.

compliments and regards

No, it can't be
(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:45 - ID#341144)
ANOTHER and Big Time Tom back on the same day???
Those of you who remember Big Time Bomb ( aka Big Tom Thumb )
will certainly view this as an auspicious event.

I think I speak for ANOTHER when I say:
Gold is going to go up, someday, so buy all you can
Somebody really smart is buying all of it and they
don't care what the price is when they buy, so
why should you?

Did I say Gold? I meant Dukes of Hazzard lunch pails.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:45 - ID#348286)
Change the viewing options at the top to Oct/24 and the time range.
You can get at all of yesterdays posts............

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:49 - ID#251213)
A cosmic joke on all the y2k worriers.

We are very concerned about the effects of y2k on the markets/world.

Just imagine if the markets has already crashed due to deflation and whem y2k hit there was nothing left to go down

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:50 - ID#427357)
Are the dramatic market upheavals WORLDWIDE in recent weeks trying to tell us something that is NOT YET apparent?

The once mighty Tiger stock markets of Asia have seen securities prices plummet -- on Thursday Hong Kong's Hang Seng Stock Market Average losing more than 10% in ONE TRADING SESSION! The Nikkei penetrated the psychologically important 17000 level - purportedly the sacrosanct value where the Japanese banking system begins to come apart at the seams. Many South Sea currencies lambasted, and financial institutions beginning to crumble. And this last week the selling panic spilled over into Wall Street, which is dragging down most European stock indices.

For some time prior to this gold has inexorably been wasting away... that is until yesterday when it suffered a coup d'grace - diving more than $16 in a single day for a loss of 5%. It is painfully obvious a draconian change is taking place... but what is the prime motive force... and its purpose?

I cannot discard the helpless feeling something is going on that is not readily apparent... at least not to me. Last night in shifting through all the world's debris in search of some rhyme or reason for the cause of these dramatic market moves worldwide I reread the June report, "SEVEN GOLDEN THREADS OF THE GLOBAL QUILT" by the Oracle of Alberta - in which he alludes to the possibility of A SINGLE WORLD CURRENCY

A Single World Currency? To contemplate such a scenario of power and control seems almost preposterous. But is it? Consider for a moment the events that would usher in a single world currency in an electronic medium. These might include: financial and stock market chaos; the collapse of the U.S. dollar, Yen or the stillbirth of the Euro; war in the Middle East; a worldwide banking crisis; or other global unrest.

Is the worldwide financial paradigm changing as we speak? Are global market forces reacting simply to imbalances, or is there a specific force orchestrating the financial and monetary machinations... and if the latter, what is their game-plan and purpose? The Oracle of Alberta has an intriguing and plausible idea of what is really going on:

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:56 - ID#30116)
Bart --- Good one! ROTFL!!! :- ) ) :- ) )

So that's my problem! Group therapy! :- ) ) :- ) )

Uh, yeah, Alex...
(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:57 - ID#230306)
I can field that one
Prime motive force - More sellers than buyers

Purpose - To sell somethings that has lost
attractiveness as an investment vehicle

One thing for certain: If you've got
car trouble, mate trouble, or your
just a little confused about the coming
parousia, the answers await at

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:58 - ID#26793)
There is a lot of press reaction today that all boils down to the same conclusion. Gold has not reacted to a market crisis the way it used to, gold is dead. The dollar is king. Is that true?

In order to try and answer that question the first step is to determine if in fact there has been a crisis. Depending on where you live the answer to that ranges from "No" to "a little one". Here in the North America the market is down 8%, no banks have failed, martial law has not been declared. SE Asia is down 25%. Big deal. I heard about one hand grenade in Thailand, probably thrown by a soldier. No governments have failed. Thailand has some "Money Store" type banks that have failed. A demonstration or two but I am a bit strained to call it a crisis yet.

In SE Asia there are some ruling families who probably have had a good pile of gold socked away for years. They could even be taking profits now in terms of local currencies so it is possible that gold has performed its normal role and we just can't see it at Kitco level.

The dollar is king? I will wait until the U.S. Stock Market is down 25% in order to answer that question. I suspect I know the answer. That will be a better test of gold.

This mess is just starting to unravel. The press can't yet see what I see because they are generally only 21 years old. They think a "crisis" is when the girl you asked to go to the prom turns you down.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 10:58 - ID#348286)
Great post. I agree, I agree, I agree. Futures are a RIPPOFF.
The COMEX enacted draconian measures in 1980 when the Hunts were into the Silver market. The market was cornered by the COMEX et al, to go down, not by the Hunts as the press reported. This is all detailed in the book by Peter Cavelto ( GOLD SILVER and STRATEGIC METALS ) .
The COMEX can and will enact any measures, when told to do so by the handlers. Even now, they hold @ 800K ounces if Gold, against @ 30 million ounces of open interest. How the hell could they ever deliver ???

However, all that said, IMO we are heading for lower prices in the near term. Panic dumping is still ahead of us.
I hope to be buying more in the 200's.
One question, where do you get your information from ???

(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:03 - ID#31868)
ANOTHER: Your 10:24 post is an interesting one. I AGREE that you can take all the methods of analyzing gold markets and toss them out the window. The playing field is not level.

I really see no difference between the currency manipulators and the gold manipulators. Reasoning and such may be somewhat different, but the end result is pushing down the value. Were money tied to an absolute value in gold this could not occur.

The fellow that is screaming foul in Asia is not so different than Kitco posters who make similar comments. People that say they had inside information become no different to me than those individuals who profited by aiding the Nazis as they profited from the misery of others.

People that talk about the gold sales of governments have never really looked at the numbers. This doesn't mean a thing.

Let's go to the chalkboard for a moment shall we.

For the sake of this example - there are probably 6 billion people roaming around the planet.

I doubt there are 6 billion ounces of gold, but let's say there are.

Everybody gets one ounce. Now not everyone can afford an ounce. But, add in all the stupid lists that supposedly portend to display the wealthiest people on the planet and for this example, the list continues on down to list everybody on the planet that makes $12,000 US.

The supply hitting the market, drives the price down theory goes right down the tanker. End of story.

People need to stop living in virtual reality, and inhale a dose of actual reality.

Ah, so Donald
(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:05 - ID#206306)
you saw the $15 drop in the price of gold?
Because I know a lot of 21-year-olds who saw it

If they heed your advice and buy gold now, seems
like they are better off ( make more money ) than
the elderly folks who foresaw this crisis and
stocked up on gold at $400.

and here is my definition of a promoter
(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:10 - ID#206294)
Kevan, pay attention
Someone who works whatever material, even if it is antithetical
to what they have been propounding, into their patter with nary a blink.

The $15 drop in POG slowed you down not one bit, Kevan.
You are back posting today and would have been back if
gold dropped $50.

At least GSC is giving the appearance of contemplating
this drop by remaining on the sidelines. We know what
he'll say when he returns, but at least he took the
day off. You, Kevan, I mean the body isn't
even cold yet and you're back at work.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:10 - ID#386276)
the url you were after.

Rout hacks $400bn off world shares
How many trillion to go???
Who's buying what.
Here is a spreadsheet showing the closes, vols, $values,o/i, plus changes for US gold options.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:12 - ID#386276)
Who's buying what.
Here is a spreadsheet showing the closes, vols, $values,o/i, plus changes for US silver options.
These figures show the differences between 23rd & 24th.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:13 - ID#386276)
Who's buying what.
Here is a spreadsheet showing the closes, vols, $values,o/i, plus changes for US SPX options.
These figures show the differences between 23rd & 24th.

and here's one more thing I don't understand
(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:18 - ID#206294)
is why you all aren't bad mouthing gold
Everyone else uses psychological ploys to swindle you,
why can't you pull the wool over everyone elses' eyes
and pretend to agree with them, driving down the price
of gold even more by badmouthing it IF YOU ARE SO
I mean really, let's get the gold of the non-believers
for as cheap as we can, right? Why come back on the
site the very next day and pick up the stanza right
where you left off? Remember, if you say people
don't change, but you don't change, then there will
be no change.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:20 - ID#386276)
Emailed to me from another Kitco fan
From the Cameron Portfolio Letter.

Since the dawn of history, the "barbarous metal" has caused passion and irrationality amongst those who have been espoxed to it. It is only recently, since the development of electronic world-wide markets, that some have reduced gold to the lesser status of just another commodity.
This is to ignore thousands of years of history and the powerful desire to hold gold as a tangible sign of wealth.
Gold's scarcity and universal negotiability used to more than compensate for its lack of yield. Today, with inflation back in its box, gold has reduced appeal to hard-nosed investors,
Other than lending, for a small margin, to producers selling forward to protect future earnings, there is not much the central bands could do to increase returns on their holdings. So some central banks did what any rational investor might do: they decided to divest themselves of an underperforming asset. Why not? The future seems to be all sweetness and light, and nowhere can be seen a Factor X ( the unknown trigger for some sort of financial disaster ) lurking in the shadows.
However, for much of the world, from the east of Suez to the east coast of China, and all those other areas running north-south in between, there is a distrust of governments, government paper, and governments' functionaries. Nor do those governments give much. More than two billion people in these areas want some form of negotiable insurance.
The emerging middle classes of India and China have no wish to be uninsured against a physical or financial calamity. Neither do the poor. The collapses of the Tiger currencies illustrates this well. The governments attempted to maintain their currencies within a band. It never did work and still doesn't. Gold holders in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Phillipines whould be happy they still hold something very negotiable in a period of considerable panic.
What is going to happen if the EMU doesn't work? What is going to happen if a committee of Eurocrats decides that they may possibly have madea teensy mistake and the basis for their divestment of the ultimate commodity could be a bit wrong, and they might just stop selling their central banks' remaining holdings and, even worse, buy a bit back?
Consider this equation:
a ( fabrication demand ) + b ( investment demand ) + c ( hoarding demand ) + d ( Factor X )
= w ( mining supply ) + x ( forward selling ) + y ( central bank selling ) + z ( traders shorting )
ie. a + b + c + d = w + x + y + z
The equation is somewhat wheighted towards the selling side at the moment.
Factor w is becoming very important. The South African mines are hurting badly, Australian mines are in trouble and , in the last few days, various Canadian and US miners have signalled closures. Confidence is the most fragile of flowers and if there is the slightest sign of any weakening in any factor on the right hand side of the equation, i.e. should factors x, y, and z, be only marginally affected, the markets will do their normal thing and overdoo everything on the upside, and God help you if you're too short. Steve Eakin
The Chinese who escaped to Hong Kong in 1949 with gold taels sewn into their clothes had a handy start to a new life. But many who have since become hugely wealthy carried with them a far less tangible but more profitable commodity; acumen. Gold is good but brains are better.
Or ask the Euqorpean Nazi victims who converted their wealth into forl in Swiss banks before 1939 how good their insurance was. You can't. Many were dead before they could make their claim. In times of turmoil, a safe hide-out is better than a hidden safe. But what is reason and history to the eastern mind? Or the frightened mind? Markets are rational - except when they're not.
The long-term trend in gold since 1980 has been steady on the downside. That is not a friendly trend except fo sellers. Investing with the aim of profiting from and international banking crisis is like taking the other side to Lloyds and betting that the ship will sink. Good money if it does and nothing if it reaches port safely, as thousands do every day.
Still, there's not much wrong in investing in a company that finds a lot of gold it can dig, treat and pour for less than $US250 an ounce. Or which has sold forward three or four years' production at over $A650 an ounce - as NBH has. In the meantime, I'll leave the philosophy - and the physical - to the mystics. PDJ.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:22 - ID#31870)
RYo will produce at 79 per oz in new mine. Unch yesterday.

I mean, you saw it right in print
(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:26 - ID#374111)
that Kitco is used as a contrary indicator
And everyone at this site can sniff out a contrary
indicator in a second. Why not say, "Yeah, let's
all sell gold ( nudge, nudge ) " and get the interlopers
that pillage this site as a contrary indicator
thinking "Whoa, time to buy". Why can't we
do the hoodwinking for once?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:31 - ID#20135)
Good morning all. If you don't mind, what is the corect figure for the almost/maybe Swiss Gold sale.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:44 - ID#31868)
Dear Nebulous: I see nothing antithetical in my post, but then you gave yourself the nicety of an out by utilizing the word if.

You place pettiness at my feet by terming Mr. GSC as having taken the day off, when totally unbeknownst to you...he may simply be shopping for groceries at this juncture in time as the Earth revolves around the Sun.

Your comment also infers that I did not contemplate this drop. I thought my post was succinct, contemplative and very much to the point as to my melodeon state of mind.

The body your refer to. Pray tell my accusatory protagonist. Would you be speaking of my God sent friend Mr. Gold. Surely you jest. There is rather a huge difference between being dormant and being dead.

Your deluded comment reflecting me as a promoter, nothing less than mephitic. I shill for no one. I do not get paid. Perhaps instead of the lingual reference to work, it would be better put to empower the word volunteer.

In fact, as your words run past my mind's eye, everything you stated would be better put. Perhaps a z at the end of the last word in the previous sentence?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:50 - ID#402309)
As soon as the World Series ends and the players get their mind off of the game we will see an increase in gold consumption thaty will make a few more mines economical. Patience!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:53 - ID#18970)
Both Aussie and Swissie sales annouced on a friday one sale over the other may begin in two years over a tan year period if approved and the amount recommended may not be used.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 11:56 - ID#26645)
@my goodness I am sceptical
ANOTHER's posts areinteresting and thought provoking.....but the way he promotes only physical derivatives, calls, gold stocks etc....does everyone else think ANOTHER is a real individual....or just a plant?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:02 - ID#224151)
@ large

Reflecting on Another's latest It seems to me that any conspiracy concerning Gold is
aimed at officially re-instating it as the international currency for World trade
purposes ( Read Oracle @ Gold-eagle ) And a certain"co-operation" between major Government and financial players
is necessary to lay the groundwork ( accumulation of Gold ) to achieve this aim. The
purpose is to relieve the problems caused by having an individual currency as the
facilitator for International Trade. ( i.e whats good for the U-S $ at home often conflicts
with its international reserve asset function ) . This conspiracy theory also helps explain
the apparent contradiction of trumpeting CB Gold sales beforehand. Unless of course it is
a psychological ploy to aid the short sellers for their "co-operation" to achieve lower
prices for the unnamed buyers of those CB sales. This theory might also help explain
Another"s warning about "not liking the final outcome "of this exercise because all
currencies will eventually be related to the international trading unit Gold but their
creation and management will continue in much the same manner as they are now,aided
by the electronic factor. Gold, therefore, will disappear into the underground Vaults that
it usually inhabits when not being used for jewelry or industrial purposes. I am certainly
no expert in this highly complex area as the above comments may reveal but I offer
these thots especially in the light of Gold's most recent disquieting performance.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:09 - ID#57232)
@Home: Nick(@Aussie), Colleen
Nick: Looks like Colleen got Ray Tomes site -- Her physicist friend will enjoy it - I have spent many your trying to decipher the stuff. As far as I can tell this guy is first rate analytically. His ideas are "off the wall", relative to mainstream Physics, but I still can't find any obvious flaws in his logic.
Colleen: Did you get my post on the web site for the "Foundation for the Study of Cycles Analysis"? Let me know if you did not get it and I will repost it. Dewey ( deceased ) was brilliant, and spent his whole life studying cycles. The size of the database referenced on that site must be the worlds largest. I already have about 6 books, and am slowly making my own models -- understanding of Astrology is not necessary to do this. Someday I hope to unpeel some of that mystery too, but it rivals the LBMA -- not because it is secretive, but because there are so many layers of anecdotal Astrological stuff. At least four or five versions!
Colleen -- does your Physicist friend have a web site? He needs one! Please see my early posts from yesterday. I sure would like his e-mail site too! We both have the same training, and the same interests!

Bob M
(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:10 - ID#26059)
The truth to the matter is the big hoarders of gold are setting up the little guy who buys a few ounces here and there so they become totally disenchanted with gold ans sell it with no intention to buy it back. Thus the manipulators are able to control a large part of the supply, while the little guy puts his money into paper asset markets, believing he is making a killing. Then the plug,via a massive global financial crisis, is pulled and a new world currency is set up, backed by all the gold the accumulators have acquired at manipulated lower prices..The rich get richer, the poor get poorer... ( and the middle class this time )

Lucky Strike
(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:12 - ID#318141)
and the Nuggets
Another smash hit from our forthcoming album
( To the tune of Londonderry Air ) :

Oh, Danny Boy, the gold, the gold is calling,
It says, "Buy Now! It's never been this low!",
And so I buy, and sure enough, come morning,
The price has fallen ten more bucks or so.
Oh come ye back, ye fickle gold investors,
Buy now, and put the gleam back in my eye,
Or I'll sit here, atop this pile of yellow,
Useless metal, till the day I die.

Big Time Tom
(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:12 - ID#212320)
Hepcat vs. Cole
A couple of comments on the Hepcat's smear campaign against George S. Cole:

( 1 ) The Hepcat recently reproduced a long series of quotations from some of Cole's previous posts, and the aim, I take it, was to demonstrate how consistently wrong Cole had been. But most of these quotations were ripped from context, and they presented an entirely false representation of Cole's advice in any event. For months, Cole repeatedly warned us that the gold bull is not yet here; that we should not chase after gold rallies; that the volume in the gold rallies was still too weak. Indeed, despite my chosen handle ( which is my own private joke ) , I probably would have chased some recent gold rallies naively, had it not been for Cole's sage advice; so he has in fact saved me a lot of money. Of course Cole did recently announce his conclusion that the gold bull is now in, and, who knows, maybe he'll turn out to be wrong about that ( even as Hepcat was wrong about Dow 8300 in October ) . But as he himself has said many times, these timing calls are tricky and little more than educated guesses.

( 2 ) Having said all of that, I must also acknowledge that two of the Hepcat's predictions ( the now notorious 325 and 310 predictions ) turned out to be remarkably accurate. Especially astounding is the latter prediction, since gold had to drop a mind-boggling $14 in a single day to reach his target within 24 hours of the predicted date. Had it not been for his earlier prediction, I might have regarded this as blind luck. But now I find myself wondering whether he might have had some inside information. Could it be that he already knew a month ago that some big movers had decided to push gold down to $310, suddenly if necessary, by the end of October? That might explain both why he was right about $310 gold and why he was wrong about Dow 8300. If a month ago you had already known that gold would be at $310 by the end of October, where would you then have expected the DOW to be? Certainly not at 7715!

It is possible, of course, that the Hepcat just got lucky twice; indeed, if a free market in gold truly exists, then that would be the only possible explanation for the success of such very precise predictions. But if the price of gold is fixed and the Hepcat somehow knew in advance what the fixed price would on a certain date, then that would be another story altogether.


(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:25 - ID#57232)
Dear depressed: ( gee I sound like one of those newspaper columns ) I personally get a kick out of Anothers posts. I really wouldn't be upset if he was a plant, a movelist testing a story, or the real thing! I know some of what he says is correct, and some is not. You may want to see some of my earlier posts about his/her claims that 1/3 of all oil purchases were bought with gold to keep the price of oil down. He/she backed off on that one, when it became apparent that all the gold in the central banks would have vanished in three years. His/her new model was closer to the truth, I think, that gold is being pushed down by certain powerful groups to keep the dollar strong and oil cheap ( there is a post to that effect somewhere on this site from the Chief goldman-sachs economist ) .
The best way in my opinion to handle posts like these is by cross correlation. If the data does not compute with other sources, beware! Does that help? Does it help to know you are not the only one that lost money in gold stocks yesterday? Me too! But I am not upset, because I learned yesterday that our favorite indicator of trouble in the international markets -- gold -- does not work the way it used to, because the powers that be are postponing the inevitable by suppressing this indicator. Eventually the gold derivatives trading technique will fail to work, and instead of trying to scare us with 1400 tonnes of Swiss gold sales it will have to be all the western Central banks gold! One can't cry wolf forever. Now if the gold was gone from Fort Knox, would that make gold go up or down? As far as I am concerned the end of the gold bear is near -- but I honestly don't know when it will turn up -- explosively --- when this charade ends.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:31 - ID#26645)
@grateful for feedback
Yes, I am hurting more than a little on gold stocks and calls.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:35 - ID#320102)
Just logged on, I see Bart has changed the name of this discussion group, how fitting!

"Group Therapy for Gold Investors and Market Analysts"

All: I find the timing of the Swiss announcement "suspiciously" coincidental. I think the CB's are much like those who bring down large buildings, good timing and well placed charges will insure it falls in the direction they want. The major difference is the CB's have far less control and a lot more opportunites for errors. We wont know how the Asian implosion will turn out 'til the dust settles.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:35 - ID#31868)
There are a pltethora of obstacles to the one world currency. I suggest as just one example the Great Princess India. Her people will not be so easily manipulated.

China is much talked about in the American Talkinghead/Propaganda machine. The princess is a power to be reckoned with. Yet we hear virtually nothing about her.

I think it is a given that the West is ignorant to China and it's devices. It is equally true when exampling India. I refer to China as an it, due to the fact that we do not hear the people of China. We hear only from the murder's of students.

The fellow from China wears the suit of clothes familiar to the West in every photo opportunity. Yet I can assure you the garb of Mao hangs cleaned and neatly press in his closet.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:40 - ID#241277)
Thoughts..Single World Currency
ANOTHER, Vronsky, Pedro: Welcome back ANOTHER...your timing is perfect! Vronsky's reference to Oracle of Alberta's hypothesis about colluding powers orchestrating the demise of the multiple fiat currencies and yet elimination of the only alternative store of value, gold, is worth considerable debate on Kitco. Yesterday's events are stunning but I would suggest not surprising if the Oracle's hypothesis is correct. This is a confidence game...pure illusion...the Swiss haven't even sold gold but SOMEONE is intentionally manufacturing a depressed sentiment. As the Oracle asks: "who and to what end?". The question of who is buying the gold remains unanswered and perhaps we will never know. The Chinese ( in a patient game to out last the Americans ) ?; the Rothschilds ( N.M. Rothschilds through the LBMA ) and other colluding merchant banking interests ( the offspring of the J.P. Morgan dynasty, the Rockefellers ) working under the fraternity of the Council of Foreign Relations ( CFR ) and the Tri-Lateral Commission towards the goal of global union ( with key pieces of the puzzle now being put in place, the MAI, Free Trade Agreements, the Euro, etc. ) and ultimately not the former code word "One World Order" ( Novus Ordum Seclorum...which appears on the US $1 bill ) but rather a new code word: Global Union.

We must not forget that if such oligarchies of power exist ( carry overs of the powerful dynasties of the 19th and early 20th century ) they can and will play a very patient game towards a most worthy goal: global union. Moreover, they are smart enough and experienced enough to know that secrecy is their greatest weapon and thus they will never be revealed in the main stream press or media. One only need examine the history of the Rothschild family to understand that maintaining such secrecy is the key to the longevity of wealth and power.

Such an objective for a global union must require a level playing field and the illusion that all men ( and women ) must become one family ( homogenous ) ...the Tower of Babel if you like. On the surface a move to a homogenous global "system" of currency, trade, language and even religon seems attractive, almost utopian. But is it? Is not the irony that heterogenity ( i.e. our differences ) which is ultimately our strength and creates resiliency. One has to seriously contemplate why the world has been stampeded into free trade agreements, agreements on multilateral investment, single common currencies, when intuitively we know that our local economies and societies will and are ultimately suffering. The tragedy is that when such a union is constructed, you and I will be beholden to the powers which control and "manage" those global systems.

I am in agreement with ANOTHER that what I believe we saw yesterday with Gold is a deliberate next step towards a worldwide confidence game ( if ever one studies game theory one can envision what is being planned by viewing each progressive chess move ) ...ultimately the game requires not only the collapse of the fiat currency system but also the collapse in confidence in gold ( the only alternative store of value ) . Having cornered the supply of gold, those powers colluding towards the goals of global union will as ANOTHER suggests have corned most of supply of gold as to render it "worthless" a King of old might have collected all the gold ( as they did in Germany in the great inflation ) and thus rendered its value worthless and issued instead an alternative currency. The Oracle of Alberta and ANOTHER might be correct that with the orchestrated demise of both fiat currencies and destroyed confidence in gold ( and a capture of majority supply holdings from CBs from all countries, excepting perhaps the US ) that from the ensuing chaos, the PUBLIC will ask for extreme measures, a new currency, a new system...and low and behold, it shall be given on to them by the very powers who orchestrated the illusion.

My hypothesis is this for goldbugs and in response to ANOTHER's suggestion that bullion will be the preferred asset: neither stocks nor bullion will be of any use with the chaos that will ensue. I believe that neither stocks, options, or gold bullion will be worth anything should the markets and fiat currencies collapse. There may be a small window in which gold bullion prices soar, but if the powers to be render a market in gold bullion "valueless" as they have done in the US before ( under Roosevelt, I believe ) then gold will simply be a black market commodity...those who have gold will be asked to turn it in ( as they were asked in Germany and in the US ) in exchange for another worthless form of a new global currency.

I leave you with these draconian thoughts....but are the preposterous?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:40 - ID#31868)
Lest we all forget. There are individuals and other entities that hold billions in gold other than the Central Banks.

I can assure you that not all of these holders have the same political ends in mind.

The golden sparks have yet to fly.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:42 - ID#57232)
ANOTHER: Saw your post today -- I think there is a slighly different way to describe Swiss gold sales. The Swiss probably do have too much gold to support their currency - one of the strongest in the world. They are also very conservative, and treat gold the same way the Rothschild's do or Big Trader, et al. I submit that they will slowly sell some of their gold over the next ten or twenty years ( if the public referendum passes ) . This way they will get the best price. No matter how you look at it there is a connection between the dollar, gold and oil, and recent charts show this. You are right that the gold paradigm has changed, and older historical gold charts are worthless to predict any future trends. The gold indicator of the "flight to safety" is being suppressed.
I invite you to explain to us how gold ( or its paper equivalent, or gold stocks ) will fail to go up in value. I grant you that we may have a paper crisis -- the worldwide derivatives markets are trading at 60Trillion annually and doubling every two years. Kondratiev wave cycles cannot be ignored! Why don't you clarify your thoughts to us about the coming currency crisis? Is the ECU coming to the rescue, or do you agree with George Soros?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:42 - ID#229300)
I'm not one to believe conspiracy theories but with the news out of
Swiss land I'm starting to believe, coupled with phone troubles on the
exchange when there is a gold ralley. Allen had an excellent rational take on the Swiss news that one would be well served to read.
What I'm wondering is: Now that the "fixers" have pulled out all stops,
what will they or can they do next when gold rallies? And it will, ofcourse. Looks like a good buy to me, however, I said that last summer!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:44 - ID#33164)
Thanks Nick@Aussie & JTF
NICK@AUSSIE Thanks, Nick for posting that Url. It's a great site. The one I lost was a subsequent post from JTF- who I see is again awake!
Nick, I am trying to collect a few of your Dad's poetry posts-When I can get 5 or 6 together, I'll send them per snail-mail to Noel Tyl. Have 3. Can you pick out a few more & e-mail me : Thanks.

JTF: Thanks in advance JTF: Please re-post your last for me, with the Dewey Url? Fred Crooks can be contacted at
He's not my friend-saw him on TV, which led me to Kitco in my search for Fibonacci numbers, and then to suggesting that he be brought up to Jhbg to give a lecture at Anita Noyes-Smith's conference. Combined with my love for gold and interest in learning more about the financial world Kitco proved to be the ideal site for me. I think Crooks has something valid to offer. And it's so simple [according to both Fred Crooks and Robert Zoller]

My 1/2 cent on ANOTHER'S post:
When the Roman Empire was falling, and brigands roamed the land as barbarians stormed the citadels, gold coins and jewellery were buried by people like us. Those articles still have value today.

Paper makes great compost.

to respond to BTT
(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:45 - ID#323144)
like I didn't know this issue would be raised
My intent was to include one post a day from GSC.
To say everything was "ripped from context" is a bit
of an overstatement. The only way something could
not be "ripped from context" is to reprint every single
post from every single person from every single day
since October 2. I was trying to make a point, and
I chose posts that furthered that point. Everyone
else on the forum does the same thing - choosing some
information and ignoring other information in
presenting an argument. On some days, it was
clear that GSC didn't post anything which furthered
my point, but I still put down one post a day.
I never took what GSC said and altered it,
as if he said "Gold will definitely go up or down
in the next 24 hours" and I put it down as "Gold
will definitely go the next 24 hours".
The dates and times are there - everyone is free
to go back and read the posts in context.

The conclusion that has been drawn on this site
about GSC, and rightly so, it that he is a great
guy who has been prudent in giving advice and
generous to a fault with people who would call
him into question. I believe that when GSC
calls me an "SOB" or "hepcreep" while beatifically
pretending to be above the fray, these are true
emotions, and the pretend emotions are the
quiet tolerance of my attacks. I don't want
pretend emotions, because for me it is a harbinger
of pretend analysis and pretend understanding
of the market. GSC has said all along "Buy the
dips". That is wonderfully pragmatic advice, and
wonderfully useless in the current situation,
because every day for the last two weeks ( save
one day ) there were dips to be had.
He himself has apparently avoided buying the dips,
so why doesn't he say this instead of always
giving the call to arms as if this site needed
a good pep talk every day? His call on 8300
has so far proven to be correct, yet he didn't
even have the strength of conviction to believe
in himself when it looked like it might not hold.
George is a nice guy and everybody's best friend,
but in the current market what it takes at this
site to call things correctly is an a--hole,
as has been repeatedly demonstrated. I'm not
telling George he should change, I'm just saying
he has to stand up to the heat or head to the
sidelines, and stop pretending that I don't
bother him when it is very clear that I do bother
him. Act human, George. Tell me to go screw
myself. But do it right when you feel insulted, not
days later after pretending to be so self-righteous.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:49 - ID#344308)

physics is nothing new to this forum......

this subject, relative to markets and cycles has been
discussed in great depth at this site for many, many

how many here lost big-time friday????

options are the ONLY safe way to play gold
at this point in history. there is no angst,
only the ability to be 'in' when all hell breaks
loose. will 'that' ever happen? hell yes. when?
who the hell knows.

6 days and counting........could this last week be considered
what was predicted right here amongst the masses by 'some-one?'
who said that? recorded history speaks volumes..........

october and the future, it has happened before, and it will happen
again! paper is fixing be worth only the intrinsic value it really
carries......toilet-paper, only toilet paper............

every-time the market has tanked BIG-TIME, gold has surged....
as it will is out of the loop when mr chaos
bro flux take over............


no KNOWS AS MUCH AS YOU think they do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

the talking heads speak what they are told to say by
sleep-walkers. use your eyes, listen to your eyes. what
do they show you stuck in traffic? waiting in line at the
grocery store? waiting in line at the BANK? waiting, waiting, waiting....

what will happen to you and yours when....? look at the traps of
dependance the nwo has created with-in our society...
there are no farms to go back to as was the case after the 1st
crash. you will be the ward of the state, and that is what the
nwo wants from you, to TAKE CARE OF YOU AND YOURS........fatimm

hey earl----you too ted-------

cherokee!; ) humming-with-the-birds---------

(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:55 - ID#344308)
"no one KNOWS AS MUCH AS YOU think they do!"


and who knows
(Sat Oct 25 1997 12:57 - ID#206294)
maybe he'll turn out to be wrong about that??
Big Top Tom - I think that issue has already
been decided. It is very clear George was
wrong about that. As clear as my being
wrong about Dow 8300 by 10/23/97 or gold
310 by 10/23/97. I have admitted that,
and all GSC does is keep edging closer
to admitting his incorrect call
( see what he said to RJ ) without ever
coming out and saying it. This was
about the only time GSC has actually
come out and taken a firm stance on
something that wasn't amenable to
reworking post fact, and he was
flat out wrong.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:00 - ID#31868)
Saturday October 25 11:03 AM EDT

India gold falls, but festival demand averts crash

By Dev Varam

BOMBAY, Oct 25 ( Reuters ) - Gold prices fell sharply in panic selling in India, the world's largest consumer of the yellow metal as gold crashed to a 12-year low in world markets, dealers and analysts said on Saturday.

They said standard gold ( 24 carat ) lost 100 rupees or 2.3 percent per 10 grammes to 4,270 rupees in Bombay, India's commercial capital and its main bullion market.

``A 100 rupee fall does not amount to a crash. The real crash in India is yet to come. It's staved off for the time being by festival demand,'' said Vijay Kapoor, a leading gold jeweller.

India is preparing to celebrate Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights, on October 30, when traditionally demand for gold and silver scales to new highs.

``There is a lot of panic in the market. But most of it was neutralised by festival demand,'' Kapoor said. ``We are waiting for Diwali to be over to see Indian prices finding their level.''

``But the fall in gold prices at a time when Diwali is so close is a rare phenomenon,'' Kapoor said.

In New York, spot gold prices fell about five percent on Friday to new 12-year lows to end at $308.75/25 an ounce, compared to the London Friday afternoon fix at $316.65.

The crash followed news that the Swiss planned to sell part of their gold reserves, estimated at 1,400 tonnes, from 1999, which analysts said would keep world gold markets nervous.

Bullion analyst Madhusudan Daga said he expected Indian demand for gold to remain stable because the end of Diwali coincided with the start of the traditional wedding season.

``The wedding season lasting three months will sustain the demand for gold,'' Daga said.

Kapoor said he saw the chances of gold prices recovering as traders in Dubai, the Gulf re-export market that feeds Indian demand for gold, had quoted $314 per ounce on Saturday.

Some bullion dealers however, did not agree with this view.

``Any recovery in world markets will be short-lived. I expect world gold prices to go under $300 dollars, perhaps to around $280 in due course,'' said Bhayabhai Sanghavi, a leading dealer in Bombay.

``In India, there is festival buying. So the market is having some support,'' he said. ``But after Diwali, there will be a crash.''

India's annual gold consumption is estimated at around 500 tonnes a year, more than 300 tonnes of which are met through imports and the rest from recycled gold within the country.

The country produces a mere two tonnes a year from its dying and uneconomic mines in the south.

India's bullion market has turned soft after the government further liberalised its gold import policy on October 16.

The policy allows three state-run agencies and eight banks to import and sell gold freely to both exporters of jewellery and local dealers.

Currently, jewellery exporters get their gold supply against orders from importers abroad and local dealers pay a premium to acquire special import licences ( SIL ) to buy gold and silver.

Dealers said the SIL premium fell to 8.5 percent on Saturday from 11.5 percent on the previous day, indicating demand from importers of gold to take advantage of low world prices.

``When more more imports arrive, prices are going to get depressed further,'' said Sanghavi. ``I dont see any sign of recovery after that for quite some time.''

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:02 - ID#386276)
Perpetualy Depressed
Read Steve's - article
Fri Oct 24 1997 22:38
"EIR Talks" interviews Lyndon LaRouche.
and then go read
There is a massive move about to take place in paper very soon.
There is little time to climb aboard.

I am now 90% short stocks and indexes.
Banks paying well. Puts up 200% - 300% on last weeks action.
Ready to take some profits on mondays collapse and will pyramid into lower strike puts on the retracing rally. Have been picking up six month out, deep out of the money puts, on our high flying banks for next to nothing. Bear or crash, some of these will pay close to 1000% soon.
Rotation from stock bear to precious bull soon to occur with plenty of leverage through both sectors.

HK's Tung saying that they will sacrifice the sharemarket for the sake of their $$$ speaks plenty in regards to coming bloodbath.
Once the markets tank bigtime ( this week possible - probable ) the pressure will come off precious, to begin it's rise to glory.
AG & World Markets will not let the flight to safety/quality occur at the expence of $$$'s and bond markets.
They must, at all costs, preserve these vital assets.

Indicative behavior this past week says that these events are about to unfold very, very soon.

Expecting a 30% to 50% correction to unfold forthwith.
All shares will be dumped seriously by the paniced masses.
Watch NZ's opening monday morning and follow in disbelievement as it transverses the globe.
There is very little time left, to get in or out of any positions.
Expect stocks and bullion to downthrust heavily on opening with weak rallies.

hey JTF
(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:02 - ID#353132)
did you want to be a ventriloquist when you grew up?
Cause you sure are doing a good job animating ANOTHER.

Once again, JTF, usually when intelligent people are
called on something so transparent, they admit to it.
Does this mean you are not intelligent?

and here's something else that irritates me
(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:05 - ID#257258)
Sure, I used to work in a donut shop. And sure, my co-workers are a little bit afraid of me and hate my guts just like you guys do. Noone knows me better than my co-workers and they treat me like I'm off my rocker and about to go postal. But they don't really know me. And neither does anyone at Kitco. I really am a PhD and I really did take my drunken good for nothing brother-in-law's advice eight years ago and buy mutual funds. I've made a heck of a lot of money at it. Thank God I didn't take the advice of goldbugs. Their "good" arguments might have convinced me and I'd have lost money instead of making it. Anyway, there's my insight. You don't need good arguments to make money. You just need beer and donuts, and you'll know what to do. So where's my respect, huh?

I'm the cat, the cat, the cat, the cat. I'm good at that. I'm good at that. At that. At that.

2-9-0 by Xmas. Don't forget. 2-9-0. And the Dow to 9000.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:06 - ID#31868)
Interesting - The price of gold drops and people in the article stipulate gold demand will crash. Hmmm...since the great people of India can now purchase that which they crave at lower prices, and more of them can now afford it due to lower prices, the market will crash.

Plus those who want to purchase gold items from India will cut back due to lower prices. Hmmmm.

Odd isn't it.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:07 - ID#57232)
@Home - gold valueless?
Zardoz - Your posts on ANOTHER and the LBMA are always interesting reading -- I like the way you think. I have been thinking about all of what we have learned, and can crosscheck for ourselves, and have concluded that there is nothing in the current market paradigm that indicates that gold will be worthless. On the contrary, do you recall my post on that Univ of Warwick symposium on going back to the gold standard? I think this has already started ( in secret ) as the backup to the ECU/EMU and the dollar. Yes, gold was taken from the American people in 1933! But -- when gold was revalued, the gold stocks soared! The american public was never prevented from buying gold stocks. Wait till the general public realizes they have been hoodwinked regarding gold, and it has always been used as the ultimate currency by the Rothschilds and their ilk! That will be the time of the ultimate currency crisis. The use of gold derivatives does not alter the long term behavior of gold so much that we cannot learn from history to understand what will happen. It is just that relatively short-term ( the next year or so ) that our gold "flight to safety" indicator is worthless. To see what will happen to the US dollar, look at what happened to England when the world dominance of the pound ended around 1933. Noone has yet to convince me that the Kondratiev wave cycle ( the cycle from paper to hard assets and back ) is no more! That is what the current powers that be would have us believe, and when they must falsely announce 1400 tonnes of gold sales by Switzerland ( yesterday ) , you know the charade is nearly over! 200 tonnes of gold sales from germany will be now be nothing compared to yesterday. You see, the CB's cannot hold gold down forever with derivatives -- they can only work on the fluctuations. They can do more if they sell gold, but they will be reluctant to do this -- and the Swiss most reluctant of all. They are not even part of this ploy to launch the EMU!

Hey Kevan
(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:08 - ID#353132)
I think the more appropriate response to my assertion...
Would have been silence. But you just keep talking.
Pretty soon, the smart money on this site will
group you among the Kitco stars - The Big Traders
and ANOTHERs that showed up right before a major
move in a negative direction, only to transmute
into a different mysterious entity and provide
lots of laffs.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:12 - ID#344308)

gold at 290 maybe, dow any-where above 8k-------

no way j0se'---------6 days rat-man, 6 days .....

Maurice Strong
(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:12 - ID#340174)
@ Earl + company

The many woes of Mr. Strong

Controversy dogs Canada's best-known diplomat in both
his varied business interests and the environmental movement.

Saturday, October 25, 1997
By Paul Waldie
The Globe and Mail

CANADA'S best-known diplomat is running into some trouble with his business interests.

Maurice Strong, 68, has gained international status as an environmentalist and a high-ranking official
at the United Nations and World Bank. Once touted as a possible future UN secretary-general,
Mr. Strong boasts a curriculum vitae that includes a lengthy list of corporate titles, from the first
president of Petro-Canada to his recent, rocky tenure as chairman of Ontario Hydro.

But lately, some of Mr. Strong's business ventures have sagged, and controversy has never been far

One of Mr. Strong's largest holdings, Cordex Petroleums Inc. , is on the brink of bankruptcy. A
recent audit report concluded that "there is substantial doubt about the ability of the company to
continue as a going concern."

Mr. Strong owns about 17 per cent of Denver-based Cordex and is a director of the company
along with his son Fred. Cordex president Ralph Wilkerson said this week that the company faces
serious problems but he is confident it will turn around.

Another Strong holding, Molten Metal Technology Inc. of Waltham, Mass., has lost more than
$110-million ( U.S. ) in the past 18 months and has seen its share price on the Nasdaq Stock Market
fall to $5 from $28 in the past year.

Mr. Strong helped start Molten and is also a director. He remains confident in the company's
business, which involves turning industrial and often hazardous waste into reusable products. But its
problems are many.

Molten faces a class-action lawsuit from investors who allege the company provided misleading
information about the amount of U.S. government grants it would receive this year. The suit also
alleges company insiders, including Mr. Strong, sold $15.4-million in stock options before disclosing
that the grants would be dramatically cut. The grants accounted for 13 per cent of Molten's
$63.5-million in revenue last year.

Mr. Strong insists he did nothing wrong and that all of his trades were legal.

Molten is also under investigation by the U.S. Congress over alleged improper political donations.
Mr. Strong said in an interview this week that he was not involved in the company's donations.

And he is even running into difficulty with long-time associates in the environmental movement. Mr.
Strong recently got into a fight with Earth Times, a New York environmental newspaper he helped
start in 1992. Mr. Strong was enraged at the newspaper's coverage of the UN and wrote an angry
letter on Aug. 20 withdrawing his support for the paper. He also vowed to contact other prominent
financial backers of the newspaper, which is widely read at the UN, to tell them about his concerns.

Earth Times publisher Pranay Gupte called Mr. Strong's actions a form of McCarthyism and an
attempt to stifle dissent by cutting off funding for the paper.

Mr. Strong was also rebuked by Morris Abram, a former U.S. ambassador to the UN in Geneva.

"I am shocked by the threats to this journal and its editor," Mr. Abram wrote in a letter to the paper.
"Surely, in your letter, there is an appearance that a top official of the UN is trying to silence dissent.
This would be very distastefully viewed in the context of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
and the Civil and Political Covenant."

Mr. Strong said this week that he was not trying to stifle dissent, but had become disenchanted with
the group. "I simply told them that I wanted to resign from their advisory board and that was that,"
he said.

He added that Mr. Abram has subsequently called him to patch up their differences. Mr. Abram
"wrote back and said that he was sorry."

Mr. Strong's diplomatic duties are so time-consuming, he says, that they leave little time for his
business affairs.

"Far from making millions this way, I have actually suffered real losses because I have neglected my
private affairs," he said.

Mr. Strong can't quite plead poverty. In the last three years, he has cashed in $5.3-million worth of
stock options in Molten. He also received $5,000 a month from Molten to advise the company on
international sales. That contract ended in September, however, after Molten decided not to pursue
foreign business. And, despite Cordex's troubles, Mr. Strong's holdings in the company are still
worth about $2-million ( Canadian ) .

Mr. Strong has spent his career juggling his diplomatic duties and business affairs. And he shows a
knack for landing in the right place at the right time.

Born in Oak Lake, Man., in 1929, Mr. Strong left home at age 14 after skipping four grades and
graduating from high school. He headed west and worked for the merchant marine in British
Columbia, eventually ending up in the Far North, trading fur and exploring for minerals.

He got a job at the UN through contacts in 1947, but left a year later to take a job with James
Richardson and Sons, a Winnipeg brokerage. In the early 1950s, he moved to Alberta and landed
in the midst of an oil boom. He helped create the forerunner to Dome Petroleum Ltd. of Calgary
and got involved in several other oil and gas companies.

In 1963, at the age of 34, he was named president of Power Corp. of Montreal after serving two
years as a vice-president. He later claimed toward the end of his tenure that he earned $1-million
annually in salary and stock options.

By the 1970s, Mr. Strong's passion for the environment led him to become involved in a variety of
related organizations. He was also named secretary-general of the first UN-sponsored conference
on the environment in 1972.

A few years later, he helped Pierre Trudeau's government build Petro-Canada as part of the
controversial National Energy Program and its goal of achieving national energy self-sufficiency. He
became Petro Canada's first president in 1976, and left in 1978 to run for the federal Liberal Party
in a Toronto-area riding. But he pulled out, citing business and personal troubles.

By the early 1980s, many of Mr. Strong's business ventures were not going well.

In 1982, a company he controlled, Stronat Investments Ltd., was caught up in a trading scandal
involving Grandma Lee's Inc. of Mississauga. The Ontario Securities Commission temporarily
suspended trading by several company insiders, including Stronat, over concerns about some
accounting disclosures. The company and two senior officers were later fined for stock trading
violations. However, Mr. Strong was never personally sanctioned.

Around the same time, another company headed by Mr. Strong was also running into trouble.

AZL Resources Inc. of Phoenix had been largely an agricultural business until Mr. Strong took a
significant stake and was eventually named chairman in 1978. He turned AZL's focus away from
farm machinery and toward oil and gas, and in 1980, AZL bought Solar Petroleum Inc. of Denver.
The bolstered company's prospects looked good. Results from oil drilling in Australia excited the
stock market, and AZL's share price soared to $32 ( U.S. ) from $13 a few months earlier.

The excitement attracted the attention of Adnan Khashoggi, the famous Saudi arms dealer, who was
rumoured to be plotting a takeover. Mr. Strong said he fought to keep Mr. Khashoggi out.

Mr. Khashoggi "was a shareholder of the company," Mr. Strong said. "I was brought in at least in
part to keep him out, which I did. I refused to let him into the company."

However, one person Mr. Strong could not keep out was Robert DiIanni, a Boston investment
dealer who had studied philosophy at the University of Toronto. At the time, Mr. DiIanni was
regarded as an investment guru. "God bless him," Forbes magazine wrote in a glowing profile in

Around 1980, Mr. DiIanni bought a large block of AZL shares on behalf of a group of clients, many
of which were charities. In fact, he sunk almost all of his clients' money into AZL. One client, Regis
College of Weston, Mass., hired Mr. DiIanni to manage a $2.1-million endowment fund. He put
$1.9-million of it in AZL.

"He came in and said, 'I got a million shares I represent and you fellows have to listen to me,' " Mr.
Strong recalled this week. "So we took calls from him all the time."

In 1981, AZL's drilling turned up dry and the stock price plunged to $11. Mr. DiIanni's clients lost
millions of dollars and launched a lawsuit against him. Mr. DiIanni was also investigated by the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission. In 1984, the agency banned him from trading for two years.

Mr. DiIanni turned against AZL and convinced his clients to sue the company as well. He also
alleged that Mr. Strong had provided misleading information and was the real culprit. The lawsuit
dragged on for years, but in 1989, it finally headed to court in Boston.

By then, Mr. DiIanni's problems had mounted. In 1987, the SEC said he misappropriated
$2-million worth of client funds and temporarily barred him from trading. In December, 1988, he
was charged with 45 counts of fraud.

The charges came two months before the AZL trial, in which Mr. DiIanni was to be a star witness
against the company.

But AZL blinked and agreed to settle the case and pay about $5-million to Mr. DiIanni's clients.
None of the allegations against Mr. Strong was proven, and he and the company were not found to
have been involved in any wrongdoing.

Mr. Strong said he opposed settling the case, but was pressured by the company's insurer.

"I didn't even want to join in the settlement, but the insurance people wanted to because, they said,
'When there is a jury and little people are hurt, you never can tell.' But I did it on condition that I had
no liability at all," he said.

In May, 1989, Mr. DiIanni pleaded guilty to eight fraud charges and was sentenced to 3 years in
prison. He was also given a lifetime trading ban by the SEC.

He was released in 1992 and immediately incorporated an investment company in his wife's name.
He also started trading stock in the name of his stepson. He was caught and sentenced to two more
years in jail in 1995.

AZL was sold to Tosco Corp. of Los Angeles in 1983 for $95-million. Mr. Strong and six other
investors received $15.5-million in cash and Tosco stock.

By the early 1990s, Mr. Strong's diplomatic and business interests became more high-profile.

In 1992, he was named secretary-general for the UN environmental summit in Rio de Janeiro. Later
that year, he was named chairman of Ontario Hydro and he immediately set off a string of
controversies. In 1994, he was slammed for considering a plan to buy a 12,500-hectare tract rain
forest in Costa Rica to offset pollutants created by the company's power plants in Ontario. He then
embarked on a restructuring plan that led to the elimination of 10,000 jobs, equal to one-third of the
work force over three years.

In 1994, he also agreed to drop his $425,000 ( Canadian ) annual salary to $1 as a sign of support
for the austerity measures. However, that same year, he cashed in $2.7-million ( U.S. ) worth of
Molten stock options. He cashed in about $1-million worth of options in 1995, his last year at

Mr. Strong left Hydro in 1995 and can claim some success. The utility went from a $3.6-billion loss
( Canadian ) in 1993 to a profit of $628-million in 1995.

But this summer, Hydro uncovered massive problems in its nuclear division. The problems have
forced the closing of seven of 19 reactors, and it could cost up to $8-billion to overhaul the division.

Mr. Strong was criticized this week by a committee of Ontario legislators for not addressing the
problems while he was at Hydro.

Mr. Strong said the nuclear division hid information about its operations. He also said he started an
internal process that led to the detection of the problems.

"I mean it's true I didn't solve all the problems, obviously, but we certainly set up a mechanism to do
so," he said in an interview.

After Hydro, Mr. Strong became an adviser to the head of the World Bank and the UN

But he hasn't lost his appetite for novel investments. His family owns part of an Ottawa company
called Technology Development Corp. that invests in environmentally friendly businesses. The
venture is run by Mr. Strong's son Ken and has made about seven investments, all in the United

The investments include two software companies, an enterprise that makes snack bars for diabetics
and a business that is trying to turn plant matter into medicine.

"I have tried to relate my business activity to interests that I have in general policy fields. And this
whole field of environmental technology is a field in which I have taken a great interest," he said.

Mr. Strong is also trying to shrug off the recent controversy about Molten.

"I don't like it obviously," he said. "But I have a certain degree of inner security."

Maurice Strong's holdings

Cordex Petroleums Inc., Denver
Ownership: Mr. Strong owns 17 per cent and serves as a director.
Profile: Cordex has operations in Argentina and Chile. It lost $3.1-million ( U.S. ) in 1996. In April,
1997, company auditors said there are substantial doubts Cordex can continue as a going concern.
Molten Metal Technology Inc., Waltham, Mass.
Ownership: Mr. Strong owns 56,166 shares directly; 221,000 more are held by his family holding
company. Mr. Strong is also a director.
Profile: Molten has developed a process to turn industrial waste into reusable products. It lost
$49.3-million ( U.S. ) in the first six months of 1997 and $61.2-million in 1996 on revenue of
$63.5-million. Its share price has sunk to around $5 from $28 in the past year.
Strovest Holdings Inc., Ottawa
Profile: Strovest started in 1983 as a Strong family investment company. It is largely inactive and
run by Mr. Strong's son Ken.
Environmental Capital Corp., Ottawa
Profile: A subsidiary of Strovest that holds the family's shares in Molten Metal and Technology
Development Corp.
Technology Development Corp., Ottawa
Profile: A privately held investment company run by Ken Strong. Environmental Capital holds a
significant minority interest in TDC.
TDC's investments include:
Quantum Energy Technologies Corp., Cambridge, Mass.
Started in 1995 by Mr. Strong and John Preston, a Molten director. Quantum is developing
alternative fuels.
Epic Therapeutics Inc., Norwood, Mass.
Started in 1992. Has a system to improve purity, potency and delivery of vaccines and other drugs.
Medical Foods Inc., Cambridge, Mass.
Started in 1994 by a group of Boston scientists. The company makes NiteBite snack bars for
Smart Technologies Inc., Austin, Tex.
Computer software company started in 1995. Has grown from six employees to 130.
Phytera Inc., Worcester, Mass.
Company started in 1992. Applies cell culture technology that uses plant matter to develop

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Copyright  1997, The Globe and Mail Company
All rights reserved.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:13 - ID#353252)
yep, that's oddsville
here's another conspiracy - The coin dealer
I spoke to today said he was paying $15 less
for gold today than yesterday - as if the
price of gold had somehow gone down.

Kevan, if I were to locate some gold at
the conspiratorily depressed price of $310
today, could I bring it to you at $325?
Or am I selling you short? What are
you paying again?

Little Trader
(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:14 - ID#310342)
@ G+M

Gold hits lowest level in 12 years

Asian currency crisis also drags down other metals

Saturday, October 25, 1997
By Allan Robinson
Mining Reporter

Southeast Asia's currency crisis pushed down the price of gold yesterday to its lowest level since
late 1985, a ripple effect with worrisome implications for Canada's mining industry.

The precious metal's price plunged $15.70 ( U.S. ) an ounce to $307.30. Almost all of the gold
producers in North America would lose money if they had to sell their output at that price, analysts

And the economic problems in Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand also appear
to be affecting other base metal markets. The price of nickel on the London Metal Exchange has
dropped to $2.77 a pound from $2.90 just three days ago. Copper also has been weak at 93 cents
a pound, well below the $1 a pound mining companies and analysts like to use for long-term
planning and forecasts.

"We're all learning about what globalization means," said John Ing, president of Toronto investment
dealer Maison Placements Inc. "The stock markets are so interrelated today."

"It is making life extremely difficult for all mining companies," said John Lydall, a mining analyst for
First Marathon Securities Ltd. "You must not just focus on the price of gold."

Neither Inco Ltd. nor Falconbridge Ltd. , two of the world's largest nickel producers and both
based in Toronto, would be making money if they were selling nickel at these prices in combination
with the low price of copper, Mr. Lydall said. The price of nickel has not traded at these levels in
three years.

For now, some gold producers are still getting higher prices because of their hedging activities, in
which they sold forward their production. Base metal miners are also temporarily avoiding the lower
prices because they sell their product under long-term contracts.

The fall in currency values against the U.S. dollar in the Far East will make gold more expensive
there and could reduce jewelry demand in this major market. The currencies of Thailand, Malaysia
and Indonesia have recently fallen between 25 per cent and 36 per cent against the U.S. dollar. The
higher interest rates in those countries could also make investing in interest-bearing securities more
profitable than holding gold.

Gold was supposed to be the last refuge from currency and interest rate turmoil, but in recent years
it hasn't worked out that way, Mr. Ing said.

There is a "whirlpool of events" and North American shores are just beginning to feel the effects, he

Yesterday, the Toronto Stock Exchange's gold and precious metals index fell 8.4 per cent or
739.84 points to 8,047.76. The shares of Toronto's Barrick Gold Corp. fell $2.35 ( Canadian ) a
share to $30.45 and the shares of Vancouver's Placer Dome Inc. fell $2.80 to $23.40.

However, there is continuing debate about whether the currency problems will spill over into the
industrial sectors because the lower value of the currencies in Southeast Asia should help exports,
said Manford Mallory, a mining analyst with Research Capital Corp.

Also, there has been little impact on South Korea, a major stainless steel producer, and on India, a
major metal consumer. China has also been unaffected, he said.

According to Bloomberg News, an economic slowdown in Japan and Southeast Asia will reduce
the demand for copper because of lower consumer demand and a slowdown in construction as
projects are cancelled.

Meanwhile, gold traders continue to be nervous about central bank selling. The markets yesterday
were badly shaken with reports that a government panel in Switzerland had recommended that as
much as 1,400 tonnes of gold could be sold, which is about half of its reserves.

"While there's no date for Switzerland to sell 1,400 [tonnes] of gold or for when it leaves the gold
standard, it's refocused the whole issue of central banks' gold sales," William O'Neill, director of
commodity research at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York told Bloomberg. "Even if the Swiss don't
sell gold until 1999, in the course of the next two years, there's a fear that we'll see other European
central banks stepping up their gold sales."

The Swiss National Bank's gold reserves have by law been valued at 4,595 francs per kilogram --
about $118 an ounce -- for decades, Bloomberg said.

Switzerland is the last developed country to insist on a gold backing for its currency. On Nov. 1, the
extent of the backing will be reduced to 25 per cent from 40 per cent.

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(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:17 - ID#57232)
Hepcat: I must admit some your posts are witty and entertaining -- if only you could refrain from the less positive ones.
If you read my writing style you will realize that I am not ANOTHER, and that I am somwhat skeptical -- See the post that I just made! Why don't you use your high intelligence and analyze ANOTHERS comments instead of mine? That will be far more productive! And since you think I am he, does it matter?
I have met someone like you before in my life -- people with extremely high intelligence sometimes deal with the world as you do -- high intelligence is a potentially dangerous asset to have -- like that temperamental sports car that does 90 in first gear! One has to contain that mental energy to function properly.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:19 - ID#31868)
Dear Nebulous: To you Sir... You digress as usual. But that is the way of your ilk. Perchance I refreshen and cleanse the portions of your mind and the portent of your conversation.

I Sir am on record in telling one and all..."You, each and every one of you, decide what to do for yourselves."

I have clearly stated my perspicacious, single minded purpose and that is to own silver mine stocks 6 to 1 over my gold mine stocks.

Gleefully, and with a clear, non-persuading conscience have, and will continue to purchase the physical metals. I own the metals at all different prices and care not.

A Frenchman once said something to the effect. "You Sir are an ass, but I shall fight to the death so that you have the opportunity to do such."

guys, guys
(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:20 - ID#383183)
love the imitations
but you've got to work on the spacing, and the timing
of the posts. Wouldn't it be horrible if I coopted
your predictions and they came true? Man, that would
be funny. Cherokee - your responding to smoke signals,
man. At least respond to some of my posts, not the
ones your friends manufacture.

oh JTF
(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:24 - ID#191306)
would that I were intelligent
And would that you weren't conveniently around every time
ANOTHER posted and you had the ability to draw him out
and keep us updated on what he said and when he was going to
say it next. Here's a test, JTF. Tell ANOTHER to call
you a "pathetic geek". Not for real, just for fun.
Drink a glass of water while he's saying it. Then I'll be convinced.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:24 - ID#31868)
Dear Nebulous: I suppose corporations spend money on advertising, then put items on sale so they sit on the shelf. Clever.

The same item that cost twice as much one week before.

What's your point. Pricing structure remains the same on a constant. There are no risks in a free market. I think I shall call your the Pointless Count.

Oblio made short thrift of his meaningless commentary.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:29 - ID#31868)
Dear Pointless Count: I too have been accused of being Another. For one that despises conspiracies, you manufacture your own. I believe that is defined as paranoia.

gosh tolerant
(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:31 - ID#383144)
short what?
I'm very much not a sophist, Kevan.
I tend not to get into philosophical debates
about value when I'm paying for my candy bar.
It slows up the line, and the other customers get
angry. Guess I've been conditioned to timidly
accept the 50 cents that gets slapped on unfairly
by the nefarious overlords, when they could be
giving it to me for 5 cents. Guess I could steal
it or go without, but life's too short to worry
about 50 cents when there are a lot more important
issues ( to my shallow way of thinking ) , like
the way snow bends some branches and breaks others.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:31 - ID#57232)
Hepcat: I don't need to tell ANOTHER anything! You have already done it, if he/she is reading the posts! And if I am actually he/she as you say, you also have done it! Seriously, you need to look at the writing style. I think you underestimate yourself.

manufacture conspiracies?
(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:35 - ID#299159)
don't kid yourself
kevan, you're the one with all the e-mail addresses.
I didn't say you were ANOTHER. You're not well-
rounded enought to be ANOTHER. You've got the same
tired song post after post. Oh, and Kevan, we're
through talking for the day. Not because I don't
want you to have the last word ( which you'll most
assuredly have anyway ) but because this is getting
tiresome for everyone at Kitco.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:39 - ID#241277) valueless
JTF: I concur with some of your thoughts. I only hope you are correct in your optimism that gold will be "allowed" to reassert itself as the "standard" store of value even though it has been effectively horded by the BIG TRADERS ( those unnamed and faceless ones who are actually buying the CB gold ) . However, I'm not convinced that those who would seek a one world currency would actually want gold to ever again be a standard. I do believe that if THEY do deem gold to be a standard against which a new global union currency is based, they will be the primary keepers of that gold thus constraining the "market" for gold as an alternative store of value and "currency" for the general public. I agree that we might look back at the history of the British currency and the current US dollar for clues of what might transpire..but I am of the opinion that the game is fundamentally different today and the ability to control for the lofty and seemingly altruistic purpose of an efficient global currency are unparrelled given what is capable through technology ( e trading and e currency ) .

BTW your point on the Swiss sale of gold and not even part of the EMU is, in my opinion, extremely telling, perhaps confirming the theory that there is a bigger agenda at play that goes well beyond the desire for the experimental one European currency - the EURO. What possible objective would the Swiss sale play if not to move the world closer to the objectives of not a Euro but rather to a single world currency.

I certainly am humble enough to realize that all I say may be a lot of wetness behind the ear!

I await your rebuttle and the comments of ANOTHER!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:39 - ID#57232)
@New Physics -- Cycles Resource web site
Colleen: It is a pleasure to converse with you -- too bad others at this site are disruptive at times -- especially when the news is at its most controversial. The site you seek is:
As far as I can tell, this must be the world's largest collection of cycle data, as well as a huge collection of books on the topic, some investment related. I have shot my wad for some time on about 6 so far. Will go back later for more.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:41 - ID#57232)
@Home - repeat post on Cycles
Colleen: sorry -- wasn't watching what I was doing:

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:46 - ID#31868)
Dear Pointless Count: You Sir are a sophist. You are quibbling with your self. Hence my reference to your paranoia. In addition, I dare say that now you would have us believe that we are timid who pay too much for our candy bars. Or do you Sir confuse timidity with freedom of choice.

In addition you insult philosophical beliefs which differ from yours. Your non-sophist comment relating to snow and tree branches. So is one to gather from your inferences that yours is the philosophy which is the landslide running down the mountain side which will engulf us timid free choicers.

Yours is a membership of one, and your member is swollen with himself.

Lucky Strike
(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:46 - ID#320158)
and the Nuggets
From Side 2 of our new album ( To the tune of "Pearly Shells" ) :

Golden coins,
In my bank vault,
Lots of lovely gold,
Covering the floor,
When I see them,
My heart sinks just like a stone,
To know they've made me oh so poor !

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:49 - ID#31868)
Dear Pointless Count: I Sir hope you have lovely and splendid day.

Via Con Dios

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:50 - ID#57232)
@New World currency? who calls the shots?
Zardoz: I will have to think some more about your posts. What I suspect is that when the Big Traders are done with their buying of gold, they will have the power they want to control world events in some manner. They will not care if "little people" like you and me have some of the gold, because they will have what they want, anyway -- power. What worries me is not your concern about whether gold will be of value, but rather what will happen to the rest of us when these "Big Traders" ( whoever they are ) start to exercise their muscle. Someone once said, "whoever owns the gold makes the rules" That's is what's really frightening! I suspect that most of these individuals are not "Europeans or Westerners".

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:51 - ID#347457)
@Only God knows what this'll do to gold :-
I just found this "announcement" in my e-mail box. Consider it as part of our "group therapy" ;- )

REDMOND, Wash. - Oct. 21, 1997 --
In direct response to accusations made by the Department of Justice, the
Microsoft Corp. announced today that it will be acquiring the federal
government of the United States of America for an undisclosed sum.

"It's actually a logical extension of our planned growth", said
Microsoft chairman Bill Gates, "It really is going to be a positive
arrangement for everyone".

Microsoft representatives held a briefing in the oval office of the
White House with U.S. President Bill Clinton, and assured members of the
press that changes will be "minimal". The United States
will be managed as a wholly owned division of Microsoft. An initial
public offering is planned for July of next year, and the federal government
is expected to be profitable by "Q4 1999 at latest", according to
Microsoft president Steve Ballmer.

In a related announcement, Bill Clinton stated that he had "willingly
and enthusiastically" accepted a position as a vice president with Microsoft, and will continue to manage the United States government, reporting directly to Bill Gates. When asked how it felt to give up the mantle of executive authority to Gates, Clinton smiled and referred to it as "a relief". He went on to say that Gates has a "proven track record", and that U.S. citizens should offer Gates their "full support and confidence". Clinton will reportedly be earning several times the $200,000 annually he has earned as U.S. president, in his new role at Microsoft.

Gates dismissed a suggestion that the U.S. Capitol be moved to Redmond
as "silly", though did say that he would make executive decisions for the
U.S. government from his existing office at Microsoft headquarters. Gates went on to say that the House and Senate would "of course" be abolished.
"Microsoft isn't a democracy", he observed, "and look how well we're doing".

When asked if the rumored attendant acquisition of Canada was
proceeding, Gates said, "We don't deny that discussions are taking place". Microsoft representatives closed the conference by stating that United States citizens will be able to expect lower taxes, increases in government services and discounts on all Microsoft products.

About Microsoft

Founded in 1975, Microsoft ( NASDAQ "MSFT" ) is the worldwide leader in software for personal computers, and democratic government. The company offers a wide range of products and services for public, business and personal use, each designed with the mission of making it easier and more enjoyable for people to take advantage of the full power of personal computing and free society every day.

About the United States

Founded in 1789, the United States of America is the most successful nation in the history of the world, and has been a beacon of democracy and opportunity for over 200 years.

Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the United States is a wholly owned
subsidiary of Microsoft Corporation.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:57 - ID#386276)
Colleen - will send you some soon. My email is down at the moment.

Ripple effect: Analysts warn that continuing slides in Asian markets and uncertainty over valuations in Hong Kong could mean another bout of selling

HSI rebound simply the eye of the storm, analysts warn:

Yam hits short-sellers with a nuclear strike:
Given the extent of Hong Kong's asset bubble, the ruin from a banking collapse would be incalculable. If it is necessary to risk the integrity of the entire financial system to defend the currency regime the question arises: why keep it? As a result, uncertainty feeds upon itself.

Snow Strands Travelers on Plains

(Sat Oct 25 1997 13:58 - ID#57232)
@Home -- United Microsoft of America
MIRO: Look at my most recent post about who owns the gold? I said that I did not expect any westerners would have the gold? Well if there ever was someone who wanted ultimate power, it would be Bill Gates! Lets see -- how much is the United States reallly worth? We are net debtors .... and how much gold in Fort Knox? ... and Bill Gates is worth how much? .... I don't think he has any significant debts.... I wonder ???? Welcome to United Microsoft of America!!! What an interesting idea! What would our
flag look like?
Signing off for now -- family calls!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 14:00 - ID#286199)
@intolerably incompetent ISP
So I'm late to the party. Dudn't look like I missed much. Lost my 5% yesterday like many others.

Mr. Sheller: I did my best to prop up SSC this week, but they seem to be a bit wan. A trusty stalwart, I will hold the line for silver... but as for gold.....

Hepcat or John: You are much too conservative. Gold will go to 280 by next Friday! The dam is broken, the supports are gone, the center cannot hold. "Abandon Hope All Ye Who Enter Here" should be over this door.

To all: Sell all, sell everyone, find a grudging buyer and implore them to take the yellow off your hands. Do it while there is yet time, while you can still get real money for the vile metal! There, my panic attack is over. Y'all have a nice day now, y'hear.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 14:03 - ID#320102)
Just finished reading "Soros On Soros", I was surprised to learn that Jimmy Rogers ( of CNBC ) was Soros's partner in the seventies. Anyway, it appears that Soros agrees with many here at Kitco. He sees a real crisis looming where we could have a breaddown not only in the financial system but also in the international trading system. He thinks the danger is the people are not aware of the danger. He said everyone talks about the global financial markets as if they were irreversible. But he feels this is a misconception.

"The prevailing wisdom about the way financial markets operate is false, and a global market based on false premises is unlikeyly to survive indefinitely. The collapse of the global mrketplace would be a traumatic event with unimaginable consequences. yet I find it easier to imagine than the continuation of the present regime".

(Sat Oct 25 1997 14:09 - ID#31868)
Everyone talks of the gold in Fort Knox. When was the last time anyone even asked if it was still there. How can you be so sure.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 14:21 - ID#251213)
Jim Dines has always said, "fear has no price." With the amount of currency that moves through the markets/day whereever this money decides to go will experience astronomical appreciation compared to everything else.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 14:26 - ID#386276)
Market internals

Broad Market Overview
Report published on October 24, 1997
Advancers: 2,812 ( 22.15% )
Decliners: 3,281 ( 25.85% )
Unchanged: 6,600 ( 52.00% )
Advance/Decline Ratio: 0.86
1,211 new highs and 1,237 new lows
Volume: 1,031,789,700 shares

Broad Market Overview
Report published on October 24, 1997
Advancers: 1,188 ( 37.54% )
Decliners: 1,346 ( 42.53% )
Unchanged: 631 ( 19.94% )
Advance/Decline Ratio: 0.88
140 new highs and 63 new lows
Volume: 785,891,500 shares

Broad Market Overview
Report published on October 24, 1997
Advancers: 289 ( 32.44% )
Decliners: 335 ( 37.60% )
Unchanged: 267 ( 29.97% )
Advance/Decline Ratio: 0.86
35 new highs and 28 new lows
Volume: 42,456,400 shares

(Sat Oct 25 1997 14:35 - ID#2082)
A.goose - 1,400 M.Tons...if youdon't already have it by now

MikeS - How was the pizza?? A bad Pizza in NY?? I thought it was unheard of ;- (

Nick - Thanks for the cycles URL. I will spend many a good hour on this one.

Colleen - Thanks.

More Gold - Futures are a RIPOFF???!?? Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha, said EB, as he laughed and skipped ALL the way to the bank...

Speed - I think John was making a prediction for where gold will BE. Not where it is going sooooon. It will rise back up to 290 in DEC. from the bottom floor of the elevator shaft.

Love Bugs ( RJ/LGB ) - I love you guys. IT's good to kiss and make up. I'm all warm and FUZZY... smile thing Now let's start making some Clams!!! ( MORE clams ;- ) )

Hep - You still crack me up. See, you can do it w/o being nasty. It's more fun that way...h M! vacuum and mow the lawn and shop for cheese noodles and water the Avocados and wash the sheets and empty the dishwasher and clean out the fridge and clean the garage and clean the toilets and showers and sinks... but I ain't choppin NO wood no how...HHH M!!!!!! O.K. honey, here I come!!!


(Sat Oct 25 1997 14:36 - ID#386276)

Updated on 25 Oct 97 Current Trend: BEAR trend
Economic Reasoning: Deflation Environment.


(Sat Oct 25 1997 14:39 - ID#386276)
Links: Analysis, Commentaries, crash predictions etc.
Note that some people that highlight the risks of the stock market have a vested interest in the alternatives, particularly gold.
Some of these links may be considered eccentric.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 14:39 - ID#408152)
in sack-o-tomatoes
10/25/97 -- 11:25 AM

Malaysians rally behind their embattled prime minister

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia ( AP ) - From a distance, Mahathir Mohamad may look like a desperate man, darkly accusing ``sinister
forces'' and a ``Jewish agenda'' of plotting to topple him and undermine Malaysia's financial markets.

Yet, while those comments have made an ill economy even more frail, the prime minister is still firmly on top, with the masses rallied
behind him at home. Even his foes concede he is as politically popular as ever and speculation about his resignation is nonsense.

Mahathir's remarks blaming foreigners for his country's economic woes have angered investors, aggravating the crisis that dropped the
value of Malaysia's currency and stock market 35 percent since mid-July, analysts say.

Malaysia's problems echo those of its Southeast Asian neighbors, which have suffered a loss of investor confidence after years of
booming economic growth. The turmoil spilled over into the previously solid Hong Kong markets last week, roiling stock trading around
the globe.

Outsiders have questioned whether, after 16 years in office, Malaysia's longest-serving prime minister has outlived his purpose. Foreign
news media have highlighted his verbal blunders amid the crumbling economy and speculated on his imminent downfall.

Logic might predict Mahathir's ruination is at hand. In neighboring Thailand, demonstrators are demanding their prime minister resign
because of the economic slide.

But Mahathir, a former physician fondly called ``Dr. M.'' by his supporters, continues to defy logic. No one within Malaysia has blamed
him directly for the currency crisis or called on him to step down.

``Dr. Mahathir will be there until kingdom come - until he knows that he's not required anymore,'' said Kirpal Singh, secretary of the Sikh
Temple of Malaysia, which represents 90,000 Sikhs nationwide and organized a dozen pro-Mahathir rallies in the capital last weekend.

``His charisma, his honesty, his desire to stick to what he believes in'' are what make the 71-year-old leader so popular, Kirpal said.
``We have gone through bad times before but we have seen him turn the country around many times. He's a grassroots man who has
made us proud that everybody gets to share the cake.''

The youngest of nine children of an immigrant headmaster from India, Mahathir is credited with taking this former British colony once
dependent on tin and rubber exports and turning it into one of the fastest-growing manufacturing economies in the world.

Inflation and unemployment have been held in check for years and the per capita income of 21 million Malaysians averaged $4,432 last
year, far higher than many other developing nations.

So when critics attacked Mahathir for his remarks about Jews and other foreigners, Malaysians came to his defense with a vengeance.
Pro-Mahathir rallies have been held nationwide and daily headlines trumpet his achievements and condemn his critics.

Even the main opposition, who call the public rallies mere government-manufactured exhibitions, concede Mahathir is politically secure.

``He's wildly popular, politically, especially among his rural and Islamic base,'' said Lim Guan Eng, a leading opposition leader in
Parliament. ``His resignation is not an issue.''

Still, Lim's Democratic Action Party is appalled by Mahathir's recent call for a ban on currency trading and his reported statement that
Jews had ``an agenda'' to undermine the Malaysian economy because they ``are not happy to see the Muslims progress.''

``The Jewish conspiracy, that was the ultimate disaster statement,'' said Lim. ``It really wrote off Malaysia for the next one or two years.
Traders and foreign investors are fleeing.''

Many Malaysians outside the capital haven't even heard Mahathir's statements - although they likely would applaud them - and they've
yet to feel the sting of the depreciating ringgit because they don't buy imported or luxury goods.

They only read the newspaper reports that say ``outsiders'' are trying to topple the man who has vastly improved their standard of living.

``It was very unfortunate that external forces caused this turmoil,'' said Abang Abdul Karim, president of the Bumiputra Chamber of
Commerce in Kuching on Borneo island. ``He's done so much for the progress of this country, so this ( economic ) problem is not of our
own making.''

Mahathir has long been a champion of the Third World, revered by many in Asia for refusing to kowtow to the West and instead calling
on Asians to help one another.

Not long after taking power in 1981, he proclaimed a ``look East'' policy for Malaysians, demanding they emulate the hardworking
Japanese and South Koreans.

``He still remains very popular, and it's because of his rather consistent, vocal public stands, being anti-West and hammering on Western
leaders,'' said Elizabeth Wong of the Voice of the Malaysian Peoples, a human rights group often at odds with Mahathir.

``Even among ourselves, we admire him for such courage to stand up and say those things.''

(Sat Oct 25 1997 14:49 - ID#386276)
US Gold Prices, 1792-1996

(Sat Oct 25 1997 15:02 - ID#315256)
@ RJ
Appreciated your final post last night ( early this morning ) , and I do understand your motives and style a bit better. Certainly I can't be accused of stating my opinions meekly either! Hope this means you'll be a frequent contributor here again. You certainly made a good call on Gold, and a lot of your other calls have been right on.

Now, why is it you're not bullish on Silver? Everything I've seen indicates that Comex inventory will disappear in the next year or two and with it as low as it is, what's to prevent some major players making a major play? Industrial use on the ride in 3rd world nations, production not keeping up with demand, etc. etc.


if my record doesn't awe you
(Sat Oct 25 1997 15:21 - ID#425207)
then George's does?
George has theory coming out of his ears.
He's also got experience. So do Oldman and Puetz and a
dozen other Kitco contributors. But does it matter
how fancy and convincing their arguments are if
they're always wrong? Or mostly wrong? Still, they've
got your respect. Well, where's mine?

RJ ran away because he recognized my genius.
My pure, unwashed, untheoretical, inexperienced genius.
And he couldn't stand it. So he ran away to write.
Write what? The Great American Flop.
Hey, RJ, I don't want to save you any trouble or anything,
but submit a chapter or two to a publisher before you
write that tome, OK?

Anyway, who amongst you has the genius I do? And
who has demonstrated it? Who amongst you would
take the advice that beer swilling, donut slamming,
smelly brother-in-law of mine?

Only I have the brains to do that.

That's right. Not only do I have a PhD, but I
know which boozey lush to listen to. Give me credit.

Cheerio-kee: Careful with that tomahawk, chief.
You've got so much smoke in your eyes, you might
wack your own wienie with it.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 15:27 - ID#26793)
Elsewhere, a Swiss plan to sharply trim its large holdings in gold was seen by currency traders as a
move by the nation to rely less on a gold standard and to open its economy more to world markets.

"The fact they are cutting back their peg, so to speak, to the gold standard seems like sort of a
quasi-deregulation package," said John Gariano, vice president at Sumitomo Bank New York.
"That would benefit the Swiss franc and Switzerland in the long run because they are starting to
realize they've got to be more of a global player."

The dollar held against the Swiss franc, however, and was quoted up at 1.4650 Friday from
1.4640 Thursday.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 15:29 - ID#315256)
@HepCat, re GSC
Hep I'm confused. What's the motive behind the constant attacks on GSC? he's one of the most sensible analysts on the site. If he shifts his timing, due to major changes in the market, that's a GOOD thing I would think, not bad. A lot more people whould be doing the same thing.

I would hope my own market startegy will be constantly evolving and changing from day to day , week to week, year to year. If it doesn't I'll be doomed. Just like the fanatic Gold Bugs you rail against.

Overall, as a mildly pessimistic on stocks, bullish on Gold analyst, GSC has a broad based approach, looks at a number of reasonable indicators, and presents a pretty solid rationale for his calls. Besides that he has class. If he doesn't emote tirades at you ( as you seem to crave ) maybe it's because he genuinely doesn't muster up such emotions in your case, but instead, pities the homeless so to speak. And BTW, it wasn't GSC writing a couple of the posts you quoted that were directed at you, one in particular was quite obviously not from him.

What really baffles me is why you let Morons like SHeller skate along making predictions based on Stars & Planets & we hear nary a word from you, whilst an analyst who at least has a rational basis for his statements can do no right in your eyes. What gives HepCat? Are you that in awe of George? That obsessed?

Also, while I believe your calls on Gold were uncannily accurate, ( and congratulated you on them ) I also believe they were sheer dumb luck. A neurotic like you would never be able to keep silent on your brilliant methodology if you had one, therefore I conclude you didn't have one. Maybe that's why you don't attack Sheller. You based your calls on some metaphysical hunch or something. Maybe you're a Savant Hep and don't know it.

What re

Big Time Tom
(Sat Oct 25 1997 15:30 - ID#212320)
Hepcat's jealousy

Wow, John, you really do have a thing about George S. Cole, don't you? My take on this is that you have succumbed to the basest of human emotions, simple jealousy. Cole has the respect on this site that you desperately desire ( and have asked for several times ) , and that seems to irritate you more than it should. But don't you see, my friend, that respect is not something we can demand from others? It is something we earn only when we first learn to treat others with the same respect that we desire for ourselves. In any event, I'll let you have the last word on this one. I find your frequent exercises in self-justification to be dreadfully boring.

As for your contention that events have already disproved Cole's call on the gold bull, I don't buy that. If gold should continue down or even simply languish next week, then you are right. But if it should spike back up on Monday or at any time next week, then his call might still turn out to be essentially correct. So, maybe he will prove to have been wrong on this one, as I suspect he will. But as I see it, it's still a "maybe" and not a "certainty."


(Sat Oct 25 1997 15:36 - ID#315256)
And Furthermore
We can find the same "always wrong" analysis in the Equities markets. We have perpetual Gloom and Doomers who missed the biggest Bull in history, and we have perpetually Bullish analysts ( the majority ) who will remian so when we enter into the next Bear phase ( which appears to be drawing close ) . Then we have the Dweebish, No brain, Spen Doctors who will always minimize all news with talk of "healthy corrective phas", and "Market digesting the news" etc. and will never make any statement of substance.

I think George's calls must be measured over time, a LONG time to be properly considered. Just like all analysts who are willing to go out on a limb. At least he has the underpinnings of rational thought on his side. Unlike complete Whacko's like Sheller who are simply Snake Oil Salesmen.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 15:40 - ID#315256)
@Big Time Tom, re HepCat
You're somehwat on target Tom, though it finally occurs to me what HepCat's REAL problem is re his continuous obsession with Cole. He's in love and has been scorned! Yep, like a juvenile dipping his first little girl crush's braids in the inkwell, Hep has fallen for George and just can't get his attention. Poor Hep. Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned hey HepCat?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 15:46 - ID#26793)
Friday: Golds take centre stage


Golds took centre stage in Johannesburg, lurching steeply lower to
overshadow a strong performance by the broad market. The all-share index
pushed 74.1 higher to 7,168.3.

The golds index came off 51.5 or 5.1 per cent to 957.0 after a poor session
for the bullion price, which fell almost $5 to $316. Industrials recovered
strongly from Thursday's shakeout, gaining 100.6 to 8,782.6.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 15:53 - ID#26793)
Zurich: $12bn Swiss sell-off plan hits gold


By William Hall in Zurich

Switzerland sent shockwaves through international gold
markets yesterday after a panel of officials from its
National Bank and finance ministry proposed selling off
1,400 tonnes of gold, just over half its reserves.

The proposed sale of around $12bn of gold - more than half of annual world
mine production - is the latest blow to international markets still recovering
from the news in mid-summer that Australia's central bank had sold most of its

In the New York commodity exchange the gold price fell to a 12-year low of
$310.50 an ounce.

The gold index on the Johannesburg stock exchange fell 51.5 points or 5.11
per cent to 957.

The Swiss officials' proposal was the most controversial element in a report on
the constitutional reform of the country's currency law. Switzerland, the last
major nation to require its currency to be backed by gold, indicated last year it
wanted to sever the link and replace it with a clause in its constitution
guaranteeing the independence of the Swiss National Bank.

Switzerland's gold reserves are currently valued well below market prices.

By breaking the currency's link with gold and revaluing the reserves at a figure
closer to market prices, the expert group recommended that 1,400 tonnes
could be released from the accounts of the Swiss National Bank.

The bank announced in March it wanted to sell around 600 tonnes of gold to
finance a $7bn foundation to support humanitarian projects around the world.
The foundation is a key part of the government's efforts to repair its
international image in the wake of the allegations about war-time dealings with
Nazi Germany.

Kaspar Villiger, Switzerland's finance minister, was quick to distance himself
from the report's more controversial recommendations.

He described the report as a "major stepping stone" towards a timely reform
of the constitutional role of the bank. However, he said the ministry of finance
and the bank would prefer to stick with the original idea of disposing of
SFr7bn of gold to finance the foundation.

The proposal will have to be submitted to a referendum, unlikely to take place
before 1999.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 15:54 - ID#194311)
Die you sick cat
My only regret would be that I got drawn into the sh!t slinging match with the sewer rat.
PhD's are for free I got one too, doesn't mean you're smart just willing to suck up for a longer time than anyone else. If you're so smart go and do something useful for humanity instead of detracting from a constructive social medium.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 15:58 - ID#315256)
@Swiss Sale Timing
I'm not big on conspiracies, but this Swiss announcement is perhaps the most blatant and obvious manipulatory move I've seen yet. Why announce a potential sale og Gold TWO YEARS in advance unless it's to hold this over the market's head for that length of time and beyond? The Swiss have been coerced into thsi announcement by others in the EU who are helping them out with their current crises re all the bad press they've been getting and such. I still say the EU has decided that the Eurodollar is to be THE world currency of the 21st century. Hence they must demonstrate to the world that all other monetary instruments & currencies will be less stable, including hard money.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 15:59 - ID#269218)


The city's financial situation is a disaster
The Administrative Council of the City of Geneva has had to give
up any hope of balancing its budget by 1998, after a catastrophic
performance in 1996. Projected at SFr. 33.3 million, the deficit
actually hit SFr. 64.8 million, principally due to a loss of SFr. 48.8
in tax revenues. However, the cause of this fall has yet to be
determined. Future budgets may remain in the red for several
more years, declared Mayor Jacqueline Burnand.

Communes propose civil rights for foreigners
In the past year, seven communes have been talking about civil
rights on the communal level for foreigners. The City of Geneva is
also examining the possibility, through a demand launched by the
Alternative deputies to the City Council. The question of civil
rights for foreigners calls for a modification of the canton's
Constitution, and thus a citizen's vote. If the proposition is
accepted, communes could choose to accept votes and
candidates for communal polls and elections.

Lowest inflation rate in two years
Last March, the Swiss inflation rate reached its lowest point in
two years, at 0,5 percent. Figures for February 1997 and March
1996 were 0,8 percent and 0,9 percent respectively. According
to the Swiss National Bank ( BNS ) , this decline is not sign of
deflation, and is not linked to its monetary policies. The BNS still
expects a median annual inflation of about 0,8 percent.

Elderly will not depend on welfare
For the elderly, leaving for a retirement home is often a very
difficult step. It gets even worse when they are forced to turn to
welfare to cover the cost of their pension. Geneva is the last
canton to have this system, but not for much longer. A new law in
currently under examination that will directly subsidize retirement
homes, instead of forcing the elderly to apply for aid. The law will
only modify the channel through which the State provides
assistance, but the costs themselves should not change. In 1995,
they were reported at SFr. 150 million.

One billion from the Swiss National Bank
Following the decline of the Swiss franc and the adoption of new
accounting procedures, the results of the Swiss National Bank
( BNS ) peaked at SFr. 8.5 billion in 1996, following losses of
SFr. 1.6 billion in 1995. The surplus allowed for public
communities, SFr. 142 million in 1995 reached SFr. 7.6 billion,
roughly 1 billion of which will be divided among the Confederation
and the cantons. The rest will kept to serve for future distributions.

Few women on the socialist election list
The Geneva socialist party has approved a list of forty-four
candidates for Fall elections to the Great Council, Geneva's
cantonal parliament. Only fourteen women are listed, which
comes as surprise after previous elections when socialists could
boast high ratios of women to men on their lists. Party officials
regret that this dynamic has been lost, after leading to the election
of ten women in a total of fifteen socialist representatives in the
present legislature. The issue of creating a quota for women in
future lists has caused a debate in party ranks, but no decision has
yet been made.

Liberal party will present three candidates
Michel Balestra has announced that he will be a candidate in the
Geneva State Council elections due this Fall, provided he receives
the support of the party's general assembly. Balestra will therefore
replace State Councillor Olivier Vodoz, who had announced he
would not seek re-election. This means that the Liberal party will
again present three candidates ( with Martine Brunschwig-Graf
and Claude Haegi ) , hoping for the same success as 1993, when
the right-wing alliance, Entente, had ousted the socialist party from
the government.

Decision on Casino delayed
No decision has been officially taken on the fate of the Geneva
Casino. Even though an agreement has been signed last month
between the City and the Casino, the Geneva State Council has
still not ratified the extension of the Casino's concession. As a
consequence, the extension project is still on hold.

Aid for technological innovation
To ensure future financing of the Genevese Fund for
Technological innovation ( Fongit ) , LEM Holding and the Geneva
government have agreed on the creation of the New Technologies
Centre ( CTN ) . This public limited company, whose assets are all
real estate previously belonging to LEM, has a capital of SFr. 50
million. Fongit will be financed partially with the annual SFr.
650,000 in tax breaks offered to CTN by the State. A total of
SFr. 13 million should be invested this way over ten years. CTN
is also a very good deal for LEM Holding, whose fixed assets
have become participations without wronging shareholders, since
its creation was exempted of transfer and stamp taxes.

Important AIDS discovery at University
Geneva spearheaded the fight against the AIDS virus, by
participating in the discovery of a new virus-inhibiting substance.
The original discovery of the molecule, called AOP-Rantes, is
credited to Prof. Robin Offord, Director of Geneva University's
Departement of medical Biochemistry. Known for several years
as an inhibitor to inflammatory diseases, AOP-Rantes shows
laboratory-proven efficiency against the HIV-1 virus by
preventing its penetration in cells. The discovery is a true
international effort, from Geneva to Copenhagen, and from
Washington to London.
While the discovery brings new hopes for a AIDS cure, the
results are preliminary and there are still many years of
development ahead before a drug based on AOP-Rantes is ready
to be prescribed to patients.

Introducing a degree in humanitarian action
Starting in September 1998, the University of Geneva will offer a
new Masters program in humanitarian action. The faculties of
medicine, law, psychology and sciences are involved in this
project, as well several international organizations, among them
the ICRC. Designed to be completed in one year, or over a
longer period if necessary, the program aspires to combine
humanitarian and development activities to better suit the needs of
local situations. It should also boost Geneva's reputation as a
humanitarian capital. About twenty-five are expected for the first
class. Tuition will cost SFr. 15,000.

Opening of the new maternity hospital
Geneva's future mothers have a brand new maternity hospital, on
Boulevard de la Cluse 32. The building designed by architect
Chantal Scaler was conceived to provide ample space, light, and
peace to new mothers and their cherubs. This new building is only
the first phase of the renovation of the maternity hospital. The
whole project should be completed in 2004.

Promotion of out-patient surgery
In an attempt to reduce the amount of time patients spend in the
hospital after an operation, Geneva hospital has opened
out-patient ambulatory surgery unit. Only operations of small and
medium gravity will be performed in the new unit, and patients will
be sent home on the same day. Out-patient surgery is a common
practice in the United States, where half of all operations are done
this way. France and Great Britain plan to reach the same ratio at
the end of the century. In Geneva, the actual goal is 25 percent,
about 500 operations a year. However, for this practice to be
successful, significant changes will have to occur in mentalities.
Indeed, many people are not at all ready to accept that their
relation to a surgeon be reduced to that of a producer of health
care and his client.

Arthur Andersen to audit TSR
After the State of Geneva, Tlvision Suisse Romande ( TSR ) ,
Switzerland's French speaking television, has also asked Arthur
Andersen to analyse its inner workings. The goal is to save SFr.
15 million, which could be used to finance new programs. TSR's
challenge is to increase its own production with an unchanged
budget of SFr. 230 millions.

BFC sold to George Town
HFC, Holding Financire de la Cit, has decided to sell the
Genevese Banque Financire de la Cit to the Malaysian group
George Town. President Andr Hintermann indicated that HFC
plans to recentre its activities around real estate and that the BFC,
specialized in fortune management, does not have the SFr. 3
billion in funds which are considered necessary for good
development. HFC chose to sell after George Town, a member of
the Datuk Keramat Holdings group, hinted it would probably
increase the BFC's personnel to complement its activities in Asia.
BFC and its subsidiary BFC Bank ( Cayman ) will be sold for SFr.
45 million, plus a 3.5 percent premium.

Seventh Luxury Watch Exhibition
For its 7th edition at Palexpo, the International Luxury Watch
Exhibition ( SIHH ) welcomed the presence of Vacheron
Constantin in its select circle of exhibitors. Vacheron, which has
recently been bought out by the Vendme Luxury Group, joined
Baume & Mercier, Cartier and Piaget, all property of Vendme,
as well as Genevese watch maker Franck Mller. Dunhill,
Saint-Laurent and Mont-Blanc were also invited to present their
luxury articles and watch collections. The salon, which is open
only to professionals and selected guests, has grown again in
1997, and now covers 11,000 square meters. Although officials
insist that SIHH is complementary to the Basel Watch Fair,
observers believe the salon may want to expand further, reviving
the rivalry between these two major watch events.

Chopard's dream come true
Chopard has long wanted to create its own mechanical
watch movement and regain its status as watchmaker.
Presented in Basel, the first models of the new LUC
watches are the realization of this dream. Over SFr. 3
million were invested to develop the watch, which is
entirely manufactured in Chopard's factory in Fleurier,
in canton Neuchtel. Chopard's mid-term goal is to
further increase its production, and to reinforce its
image as a watchmaker, instead of that of a simple

Promoting investment in Lake Geneva Region
The eighth International Market of Real Estate Professionals
( MIPIM ) , held in Cannes, France, allowed Geneva to showcase
its advantages for foreign investors. In an effort to promote the
international city and surrounding areas, partners from Geneva's
private and public sector joined forces with the Council for the
Economic Development of Vaud. The resulting effort did not go
unnoticed at the impressive Swiss stand, with Internet animation
and VIP lunches.

Cointrin as a "free zone"?
A recent intiative, launched by the Geneva Radical Party,
proposes to open the Geneva airport as a "free zone." Pointing to
the Strasbourg airport, which has been declared "free zone" in
1978 by the French government, to ensure the international
character of the home of the European Council, the Radical
proposition would allow all airlines to take-off and land in
Cointrin. If the Geneva Grand Council approves the project, it
would in turn launch an initiative by the Confederation; the Federal
Parliament is the competent authority to give the Geneva airport a
much-needed independence.

Gulf Air will take passengers
The governments of Switzerland and Bahren have signed an
agreement allowing Gulf Air to embark passengers on its flights
between Geneva and New York. Eighty passengers will be able
to board flights in either direction, in exchange of which Swiss
carriers will be permitted to fly beyond Bahren. The deal will last
until March 1998, after which it will be re-examined.

Information highway meeting
Geneva hosted early this April a meeting on information highways.
Forty-nine governmental experts from the French-speaking
Community gathered under the presidency of Mr. Trinh Duc Du,
President of the Permanent Council of French-speaking
Countries. They worked for three days to define a strategy for
French language to have a strong presence in the
English-dominated information society. Their results will be
submitted to the French-speaking countries' Ministers of
Information Conference to be held in May 19-21 in Montral.

At last, movies will be cheaper
Although Geneva has one of the highest ratios of cinema seats to
population in Europe, tickets remain very expensive, around 14
francs. That should soon change, since Mtrocin, the largest
operator of movie theaters in the region, has decided to charge
only 10 francs for matinees and on Monday evenings, and 13
francs on other week-days. Friday evenings, Saturdays and
Sundays, rates remain unchanged. Mtrocin has also introduced
a new "Movie-card" which offers reductions on certain evenings,
on drinks, and can be used to reserve seats in advance.

Japanese peacocks save the day
The statistics were unbearable, their story was dramatic, and yet,
ignored by the media, it never made the headlines: the United
Nation's peacock population was declining relentlessly, and little
hope was left for the last three specimens, all of them males. As
usual, the international community was paralysed by dissensions,
no consensus could be reached on what action should be taken,
and time was slowly running out for the last survivors of the Parc
Hope had almost disappeared when the private-owned Izu
Natural History Park, in Japan, decided it had to act. Deeply
moved by an article in a Japanese newspaper relating the plight of
the Ariana's feathered inhabitants, Izu announced it would send a
delegation of five peacocks to boost the bird population of the
Geneva Office. And to make sure everyone would be happy, the
Park took care that four of the newcomers would be females. The
oriental beauties and their chaperon arrived safely in Geneva in
early April, and were also an opportunity to mark the fortieth
anniversary of Japan's membership in the United Nations.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 16:16 - ID#26793)
South Korea: Credit rating lowered


By John Burton in Seoul

South Korea's sovereign rating yesterday was cut by Standard & Poor's, the
US credit agency, as its currency fell to a record low and the Seoul bourse
suffered its biggest ever one-day loss.

The decision by S&P to reduce Korea's long-term foreign currency debt
rating to A+ from AA- helped cause the stock market to fall by 5.5 per cent
to 570.91 points and the currency, the won, to plunge to 929.50 to the US

The rating downgrade represents a blow to the government's plans to prop up
the ailing bank system and leveraged corporate sector with the help of foreign
loans at favourable rates.

The credit rating for Korea has been one of the highest in Asia since S&P
gave it a AA- rating in May 1995.

"The downgrade of the foreign currency ratings reflects the escalating cost to
the government of supporting the country's ailing corporate and financial
sectors," said S&P in a sharp criticism of the nationalisation of the troubled
Kia motor group this week and the rescue of Korea First Bank last month
through an equity stake.

'The downgrade reflects the escalating costs to the government'

The government intervention "intertwines further the financial health of the
public sector with that of the private sector" and would lead to the "diminished
ability of investors to distinguish between the credit risks" of the two sectors.

S&P added that "longer-run economic consequences" of government
intervention "are unambigiously negative" by setting back efforts "to find
market-based solutions to the high leverage and evident inefficiencies of the
banks and chaebol", the giant Korean conglomerates.

It warned that Korea's debt problem could worsen next year since economic
growth could slow to 5 per cent or less, the slowest since 1980, because of
declining share prices, pressure on the won, political uncertainty with the
election of a new president, and waning consumer confidence.

S&P estimates that bank lending to the corporate sector amounts to 130 per
cent of gross domestic product, up from 90 per cent in 1990. Total corporate
debts are almost 200 per cent of GDP.

A government bail-out of the corporate and banking sectors could amount to
20 per cent of 1997 GDP, which would double the government's total debt
burden, estimated at 19 per cent of GDP this year.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 16:25 - ID#31868)
RE: The email posted earilier relating to Microsoft taking over the US Govt. That was a joke for sure?

Consider this. The IRS has put up for the world to see that they are actively looking for an entity to take over the responsibility of computerization and handling of tax instrumentation.

In various articles two corporations whose names have been metioned are Microsoft and Bechtel. ( sorry about the spelling of the latter, I just do not know it )

(Sat Oct 25 1997 16:27 - ID#194311)
There's a nugget in this dirt...
even the "free" press are starting to whisper "cheap Gold"

Despite a recovery in Hong Kong on Friday, Wall Street stocks
continued the tumble that began when the blue-chip Hang Seng
Index crumbled earlier in the week. The ripple effect on the
global market shook investors' confidence, but it may have given
gold buffs a reason to gold-plate their investment portfolios.
Many financial advisers now recommend that investors hold
between 5 percent and 10 percent of their portfolios in
gold-related assets. The Dow Jones index lost 132.6 points
Friday to close at 7,715.41. For the week it was down 131.62.
The Nasdaq index closed down 20.33 points at 1,650.92. For the
week, it was down 15.93.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 16:28 - ID#25588)
Time wise this is an important week coming up. The 60 and 90 year cycle lows in gold and gold stocks is due now ( Past Present Futures newsletter ) .
If the XAU fails to follow thru to the downside, it's currently resting on a Gann line, a big rally could be in the cards. One that could advance the XAU 50% by Feburary. Look for a potential low in Dec Gold at 303-302.
Bad week in the Dow as mentioned last week seasonal low due early this week. Dec S&P should reach a trading bottom 890-888.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 16:30 - ID#26793)
Washington: Officials on new state of alert


By Gerard Baker in Washington

As world financial markets tumbled this week, officials in Washington moved
into a new phase of alert, anxiously considering the policy implications of the
spreading Asian crisis.

At the heart of the world's largest economy, with the most open and liquid
financial markets, the US authorities are forced to take a global perspective;
the smallest change in interest rates by the Federal Reserve reverberates
across the globe; a casual remark by an official can move markets

Usually the demands of international and domestic policy happily coincide, but
the current crisis may prove to be one of those unfortunate occasions when
they diverge, creating special difficulties for the Fed and its chairman, Alan

Two principal concerns will preoccupy the Fed over the next few weeks: what
impact will the global problems have on the US economy, and, in an
atmosphere of heightened nervousness, what impact will Fed policy have on
global markets?

The setback in Hong Kong and the impetus that has given to the region's slide,
has raised the potential damage to the US. If there is a sharp reduction in
economic growth in Asia, as some US economists believe is increasingly
likely, US exporters will suffer. One third of all US exports go to member
countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations ( Asean ) . The
likelihood is that the large US current account deficit will quickly grow even
larger. That will increase the US dependence on inward capital flows to
finance the deficit, raising the vulnerability of US financial markets to a sudden
shock. In addition, the systemic risk of contagion spreading to American
markets from Asian financial markets is large enough to promote concern in

Both these factors suggest the Fed may need to take an accommodating
approach to policy for the time being.

But this is the nub of the central bank's dilemma.

It is impossible to know whether these effects will seriously damage the US
economy and financial system. But what is certain is that the US economy has
been growing, strongly, almost certainly too strongly for the Fed's liking.

Mr Greenspan's recent utterances have suggested the Fed has been
positioning for an early tightening of monetary policy. The headlong rush by
investors into US Treasury bonds this week, which has lowered long-term
interest rates to 6.3 per cent, will only add fuel to the flames of strong
demand. If the central bank takes the view that demand will remain strong, it
may wish to raise rates as soon as November 12, when its open market
committee next meets.

But this move could itself precipitate a full-blown financial crisis - not just in
the US, but around the world.

"Much depends on how the Federal Reserve views the economic situation in
south-east Asia, its risk to the United States, and the possibility of systemic
risk," says Allen Sinai, chief economist with Primark Decision Economics in
New York.

The best the US authorities can hope for is that the immediate storm will blow
over, allowing the Fed to pursue the policies that are best suited to the
long-term needs of the US economy.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 16:41 - ID#26793)
Friday: Hong Kong dollar peg holds


By Richard Adams, Economics Staff

A fall on Wall Street undermined the US dollar yesterday, just as relief spread
that the Hong Kong markets had beaten back a week of speculation.

The dollar closed down against the Japanese yen in London. Its price of
121.27 was almost half a yen below its final price at the end of trading on

The rebound by the Hong Kong stock market early yesterday led to relief for
the pound, which returned to levels against the D-Mark seen earlier in the
week. Sterling also gained half a cent against the dollar.

The Hong Kong dollar, centre of attention for most of the week, slipped
slightly against the US dollar. But it ended the week at HK$7.7345, well
above the floor of its peg against the US dollar of HK$7.80.

* Hong Kong won the first battle to retain its currency peg, but will it win the

"I cannot over-emphasise the amount of political investment behind the
preservation of the peg," said Marc Chandler, currency analyst at Deutsche
Morgan Grenfell. Mr Chandler says the authorities' "Achilles heel" remains
equities and property, which are hurt by the very high interest rates needed to
tighten liquidity.

One reason why the prov ince and its currency got off lightly, compared with
its Asian neighbours, is that the assailants ignored the maxim that liquidity is the
first requirement needed for speculation.

Dealers may not make that mistake again.

The fundamental factors behind the attack on the peg remain. The Hong Kong
dollar has appreciated by 40 per cent on a real trade-weighted basis since
1990. On bilateral purchasing power parity estimates, it is overvalued by at
least 10 per cent against the US dollar. And the recent spate of devaluations
has left it about 20 per cent more expensive than its south-east Asian
neighbours, in a short space of time.

The result has been a property bubble. The effects have been felt as far afield
as central London, where property dealers have reported buying from Hong

The long-term implications for Hong Kong and its currency are complex.
Yong Hao Pu, senior economist at Bank of China International - the
investment banking arm of the Bank of China in London - said in his personal
view the difficulty for Hong Kong last week was the threat of higher US
interest rates. Hong Kong's economy is increasingly integrated with mainland
China's economy, but the currency peg means the province is linked to the US
cycle by monetary policy.

Mr Pu likened the Hong Kong dollar and its peg to sterling and the European
Exchange Rate Mechanism, as an illustration of the problem of divergent
monetary and economic cycles. "Before the mainland Chinese currency
becomes fully convertable, I think Hong Kong would be better off to remain
on the peg," he said.

The announcement that Gordon Brown, the UK chancellor, will make a
"definitive" statement on the government's position on a single European
currency, took the shine off sterling.

Post-Hong Kong relief had taken the pound to above DM2.915. But news of
the announcement saw it back down to around DM2.905. The Bank of
England's sterling index rose to 102, from 101, by the close.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 16:42 - ID#31868)
Donald: As usual I thank you for the posts. Here's a curve ball. What would be the implications if Greenspan and Co. wanted a return to a gold backed dollar. Would not the horrible situation ( Asia ) which caused world financial chaos be an excellent excuse with him & Co. coming out as a genius/wizard and Co. as saviors, in the history books.

The dollar retains it's throne as world currency. Inflate the real worth of gold against the dollar. ( each ounce of gold is now worth - any number they want. ) And crush the EURO-DOLLAR before it's birth.
Some say the best way to kill a species is to stomp on their eggs.

Copied from

"The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists ( government bureaucrats ) to use the banking system as an unlimited expansion of credit. In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation... Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process."

  Alan Greenspan

(Sat Oct 25 1997 16:44 - ID#318123)
Folks, Foggies and Foggettes after reading all the posts since yesterday I've come to a conclusion, if this supposedly gold sale does push the individual investor back to the yellow stuff through this deceptive bunggling I'll be sending Christmas cards to all the CB's and their families. Many of you people are very therapeutic and now I'm ready for the BIG SELL OFF in stock paper and the resurection of sensible way of sustaining money creation that will be backed with Gold. I know this is only wishful thinking, but we must all realize were only small spuds in a sea of large potatoes with blackened eyes. Last night we went downtown for dinner and party'n and the some of the banking and brokerage buildings were burning the midnight oil, we all know rust never sleeps. Keep up the good news articles and posts coming. Appreciated!!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 16:47 - ID#194311)
NZ market closed Monday
Sydney will be the one to watch

(Sat Oct 25 1997 17:03 - ID#26793)
Small-cap stocks in Japan are especially at risk

AFTER A STEEP RISE earlier this year fueled by convincing gross domestic product and
healthy consumer sales numbers, Japanese equities looked set for a strong 1997. But then came the
sales tax increase from 3% to 5%. Consumer spending fell off the table. The upshot: today the
Tokyo stock market is slumping badly and the Nikkei 225 index has dropped below what it was at
the start of the year. Don't despair, says Sugino Hitomi, manager of Chase Manhattan Vista Japan
Small Cap Equities Fund in Hong Kong. Having been in charge since the $11 billion fund was
inaugurated in 1995, she knows that patience is a key to finding quality stocks in Japan. The
currency crisis in Southeast Asia has added another complication, but Sugino told Asiaweek's Tim
Healy that careful scrutiny can yield some strong prospects.

Japan is in a difficult investing environment these days. What do you see in the future? When
will things turn around?

I have to say I am not God -- I cannot say for sure. In the short term, economic prospects are
uncertain. The second-quarter gross domestic product shrunk 2.9% quarter-on-quarter. Household
spending continued to fall in August. So did retail spending and automobile sales. And industrial
production slumped on an already weak July. But in the long-term, we are optimistic. The turning
point may come if and when the government tackles its toughest problems. It is encouraging that the
government is pursuing deregulation, and it has recently proposed a stimulus package that includes a
cut in the corporate tax as well as other tax cuts or freezes.

Would you say there is more opportunity in this market to succeed with small-cap companies,
or should investors stick with large-caps for safety?

In a down economy, the small companies, of course, are more vulnerable. But price-earnings ratios
are at their lowest points for the last 10 years, which means values are available. And some
companies that are led by dynamic entrepreneurs, that have a clean balance sheet and that have
niche products resistant to price deflation should be a good bet. Also, look for companies that will
benefit from deregulation.

How is the currency turmoil in Southeast Asia affecting the investing climate in Japan?

For investors, the important thing is to avoid the companies with high levels of exports to Southeast
Asia. Select companies with overseas production -- that should help to reduce costs. Some
manufacturing outfits have moved production overseas. But you really have to look at each
company and sector separately. In general, textiles, paper, steel, transportation and plant
engineering are vulnerable because companies haven't diversified.

How do you balance currency risk vs. opportunities in a depressed market?

Take a special look at hedging strategies. Once a strategy has been determined, examine whether
management is locked into it until the next shareholders' meeting. That kind of inflexibility is causing
a lot of turbulence in corporate earnings. So you need to ask management what kind of flexibility
they have and what the strategy is.

What is your own cash position?

Normally, the fund has no more than 15% of assets in cash. But at the moment the cash position is
over 20% because of the uncertain economy.

What do you see happening with the yen-dollar exchange rate?

Chase expects the currency range will fluctuate between 115 yen and 125 yen to the dollar for the
next three months. But there is much uncertainty. Will the Japanese economy recover? Will there be
increased trade friction with the U.S., especially given the growing Japanese trade surplus? Maybe
at the 125 yen level, the U.S. will not be so tolerant. On the other hand, Japan's competitiveness
with much of the region has been reduced by the devaluation of Asian currencies, and we expect
that the Japanese government does not want a stronger yen.

What specific stocks do you like?

HIS is an over-the-counter stock that looks good. It is the largest discounter of airline tickets and
specializes in overseas travel services. The company has plans to enter into domestic airline
ticketing and insurance. It is relatively cheap and is predicting income growth for the next two years
of more than 20% annually.

Another company is Matsumotokiyoshi. It also is an OTC stock. It operates supermarkets mainly
for medicines and cosmetics. Most of its outlets are in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The
government is preparing to deregulate that industry, and this company is ready to expand to take
advantage. The price-earnings ratio is 32 ( a relative bargain in Japan ) , and the consensus estimate
on net income growth is more than 15% next year. The managers I met are strong and dynamic.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 17:07 - ID#258129)
I am a newcomer and am enjoying all posts.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 17:16 - ID#60253)

" One question, where do you get your information from ???"
MoreGold, A lot of my "Thoughts" are of record, just not
public record. My thoughts are made free for all to read now
because, as of the beginning of 97 the "cat is out of the bag".
You may have read that on the Gold Eagle Site. Much of what
was written about the "Big Traders" will play out in time. Thou
those writings were extremely hard to relay it is written that
"time will prove all things"! I will allow time to prove my

Why don't you clarify your thoughts to us about the coming
currency crisis? Is the ECU coming to the rescue, or do you
agree with George Soros?
JTF, first I would like to say that I didn't intend to lead a
conclusion to, 1/3 of all oil was sold using partial gold deals.
Only some for now. This info will come out next year and
if needed I will post it here. Also, George is not a big player.
He is being worked over along with a few others. As I told
MoreGold, as events unfold I will take us thru them in an
ever more open response.

Zardoz, there is very much to tell and I don't have much time.
I can answer a many questions. I think my thoughts will be
of much use to many persons.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 17:21 - ID#286199)
Hi, my name is David and I'm a goldaholic. I have been heard to say...

Spring 1996: If gold goes below 350, I'm jumping in.
Spring 1997: If gold goes below 320, I'm buying with both hands.
Summer 1997: If gold goes to 313 again, I'm gonna grab some more.
Fall 1997: If gold goes to 280, I'm taking out a second mortgage etc.
Winter 1997: If gold goes to 50, I will look like Mr. T.

Somebody wanna read the pledge for goldbugs anonymous?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 17:24 - ID#194311)
"the" City braces for blood-letting

Capital Radio DJ Chris Tarrant. Shares in
the station held steady at 519p despite a
drop in audience reach

Plunge in futures points to
further blood-letting

TRADERS in London are bracing
themselves for another blood-letting session
when financial markets start trading on
Monday after the weekend break.

Far from riding out the storm, it looks as if
yesterday was just a brief lull for City

(Sat Oct 25 1997 17:33 - ID#251213)
Does anyone remember the expressing "pushing on a string." Economists used use that as an anology for a situation such as the Japanese currently have in their interst rate posture.

I hope our Fed doesn't wait too long before they ease

(Sat Oct 25 1997 17:38 - ID#286199)
@interest rates
If the U.S. Fed eases rates, then Buffet's bond play makes him another fortune. Easing rates combined with the current policy of pumping liquidity into the market will trigger the inflation alarms and platinum, palladium and silver will run up. I once would have said guh...guh... the "g" word, but am currently in therapy for an addiction.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 17:46 - ID#241277)
thoughts...small ones
ANOTHER: The gift of enlightenment is for all to share. If time is indeed short as I you suggest and I concur then its encumbent upon you to share your "thoughts" regardless whether of the substance of record, knowledge or intuition ( or prophesy ) .

BTW: Concur that with your thiught that Soros is a small player in the grander scheme though his fears are legitimate though his prophesy weak.

PhD's are a dime a dozen
(Sat Oct 25 1997 17:49 - ID#227270)
only at dime a dozen universities in dime a dozen countries
Kiwi- But mine comes from a good school
in a great country. I'm a REAL doctor.

LGB- Why don't I attack Sheller? The same
reason I don't attack you. And the
same reason I don't attack anyone without
credentials at Kitco who lacks analytic
and prognosticatory skills. They and you
are no danger to beginner investors and
other newbies, except the most gullible.
Not that I particularly care for beginners
and newbies. I just hate the contempt that
the so-called "financial experts" have for
people's intelligence.

EB: Is that EB as in the EB virus?

I'm the cat
the cat
the cat
the cat
the only cat
the only cat

Mike Sheller
(Sat Oct 25 1997 17:53 - ID#347447)
get promoted or get left back
I have noticed the self righteous derision with which the words "promoter," or "promotion" or to "promote" have been pronounced of late. I think those that take this attitude should ask two simple questions. Does the "promoter" believe in what they are "promoting"? And is it "promotion" when something I do not believe is being championed? ( the corollary being that it ain't promotion when it's something I believe, it's the TRUTH! ) I am a professional promoter. I have promoted many things for money. I have made my living that way in the advertising and marketing industry, and at times have been well paid doing so. But I tell you this - I never promoted or created campaigns for products, services, or people I did not approve of. I simply walked away. I HAVE poromoted many things in my life, tirelessly and wholeheartedly, for no pay, and no recognition - other than the point I was representing. I have done, and continue to do that for what I see as man's birthright of Freedom, for what I see as God, and for gold. And foremost is my interpretation of God. That is what keeps me from promoting anything I have no respect or distaste for. I think people should be given the room to champion, promote, or push anything they truly feel is right. To be wrong in a price call, or a timing play is no sin. To promote that which one knows to be an evil is. And to condemn another for having the interest to promote something, without knowing true motivation, is ignorance, presumption, and self-righteousness of the highest order. But, worse, it is a sad commentary on one who does not have the energy, brains, or determination to stand up for something in a coherent, tangible way themselves. Attack what is being put forth if it is flawed, but do not judge motives of the one who is putting it out for all to appraise. We are all promoters of something - and those who are not must be living flat, passionless, grey lives. Too bad. And we're all big boys and girls here at Kitco. We don't need nattering nursemaids warning us about "imposters" or "charlatans." Or about "promoters".

(Sat Oct 25 1997 17:57 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller: Well said Sir. I concur.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:05 - ID#26793)
Tolerant1: First you must define the term "gold backed dollar". We have that now at the $42 per ounce rate. The problem is that convertability is being denied to us. We can convert if we wish, at the "free" ( is it really free? ) market price.

The pre 1933 arrangement allowed the conversion to gold. History says that when you went to the bank they tried to talk you out of it or "didn't have any" and sent you off to Washington to make your conversion. So it was not as convertible as many think.

The Bretton Woods arrangement did not allow citizens to exchange, only central bankers, but it did prevent blatant inflation to a great extent.

The Constitution only allows the government to coin money. Private coinage would require a Constitutional amendment.

My own preference would be to allow private currency and require government gold coinage. I have some reservations about bi-metalisim ( silver ) but it is required by the Constitution.

We had a system of private bank currency for many years. The main flaw was disclosure so that you could not evaluate the health of each issuer.

I think that I would like to go back to the private bank system. The role of the government would be to audit. Deposit insurance should be provided by private insurers and should be optional but always available. A depositor would be able to select the bank and the account option that suited him. Interest rates payable to the depositor would depend on the type of account selected. The insurance carriers would evaluate the risk and publish a standard ranking for each account type, much as Standard & Poors and Moody's does now for other credit risk.

In addition to its audit function the government would purchase gold on the open market with tax revenues and make gold coinage available through the banks. Government would be out of the money printing business and be treated the same as any other customer of the bank. In order to obtain funding to pay interest or initiate programs they would need to raise taxes, buy more gold, and deal with the political risk of that action. Loan quality would improve because bank rescue would no longer be a function of the government.

Starting such a system and determining the fixed price of gold is the problem. In 1933 Roosevelt and Harold Ickes watched the free market price every day until it stabilized. They then set the $35 figure. It was too high; gold flooded into the U.S. from all over the world. That was the reason that gold mining share prices surged. They had a guaranteed customer at a high fixed price. Perhaps it could be done in two stages. I think it is something that can be worked out.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:06 - ID#347447)
First Amendment
DONALD: Permit me to amend my last post a bit. My point is that true pricing under a true gold standard would be in gold ounces. If I wanted to buy that couch you were selling for the 2 gold ounce price you asked, but I did not have the two ounces on me, I would write you a note on the gold deposited in my bank account, or pass on to you gold -equivalent notes for same. This could be redeemed at any time at the bank of issue for the face amount of gold. That paper note ( where paper money came from ) would be a receipt for the gold ounce price of the couch. In a true gold standard economy, what would fluctuate is the price of things in gold ounces. Paper would only be written to, or passed along in terms of, the current price in gold ounces for a good or service. That is what I mean, and that is what people must be prepared for when they talk about a true gold standard economy.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:06 - ID#194311)
Dr. Dolittle
Do your doodoo elsewhere please.
The only country with the dime is the land of DONUTS..should be donuthings. And just what is your good school of thought? Degrees-R-US Havard or Yale, no wait Stanford, the school of "free" thought where you can think what you like as long as somebody stupider than you is paying you to tell you what to think. I know I have a worthless Degrees-R-US piece of paper as well...bit like the Yankee toilet paper currency.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:07 - ID#26793)
Larryn: Yes, you are absolutely right. Wildcat Banks they called them. That problem was due to non-disclosure of bad loans. Depositors were unable to tell the good from the bad. That is where I see the role of government, like meat inspectors, bank inspections should reveal the rotten ones. Requiring a bank safety rating system by private insurers should further prevent the problem you correctly noted. It keeps the business details of the bank private but discloses the risk to the public. If a depositor selects a "gold only" deposit account he would probably pay a fee. If he wants interest, without gold exchange rights he receives interest according to the risk he freely chooses. Insurance being optional allows further choice and risk according to the personal situation of each depositor. Freedom includes the freedom to fail.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:09 - ID#32078)
Tolerant1.. Thanks for the CNBC warning. That roundtable, which just ended is one of the best shows they offer all week. As much as I like his name, Larry Kudlow is just another establishment investment advisor who cant see the forest for the trees. Jimmy Rogers, while not agreeing that the bear has begun, is willing to say that he may have missed the top. At least he looks at the international scene. He also said that all bear markets have started when the interest rate curve inverts, I believe meaning that long term rates are dropping and short term rates are increasing and they pass each other. With the 30 year bond dropping, only .8% above short term federal funds, we aren't too far away from such an occurrence. I welcome more sophisticated inputs to this comment.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:11 - ID#286199)
@math or psychology, let's play poker
WW: The Swiss announcement was 100% psych out for the market. RJ and others have mentioned real sales taking place by European banks. We will discover soon that Germany or France actually sold several hundred tons over that past couple of months and those sales plus the "timed" announcement plus considerable short selling by speculators, kicked the legs out from under poor old guh...guh.. you know what I mean. 1400 tons is 1/2 of annual production from mines. I believe the figger to be irrelevant. They may never sell. The damage has already been done and I can't imagine the Swiss selling for $150/oz can you? I will say that one can only play an ace once and the cbs are raising the ante pretty steeply here. What's next? Au from seawater? I mean, what card can they play next time a paper melt down starts? And we're far from out of the woods on this latest Asian debacle.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:12 - ID#286199)
Mike Sheller: It's conditioning sir. We are conditioned by our culture to believe that everything is subjective, without absolutes. We are taught that no one can know anything spiritual or metaphysical or even political with certainty. If you are confident, self-assured and firmly believe something, then you are different. You stand out from the masses. Be prepared, for you will be assaulted by the "know-nothings" of our time constantly uttering "quack". I find it interesting and occasionally rewarding to debate people whom I believe to be wrong, but it is frustrating to deal with those who don't believe that "right" even exists. I would rather wrestle with angels or demons and risk all than be nibbled to death by ducks.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:17 - ID#348286)
@Todays Action in India: ``Any recovery in world markets will be short-lived. I expect world gold prices to go under $300 dollars, perhaps to around $280 in due course,'' said Bhayabhai Sanghavi, a leading dealer in Bombay
Saturday October 25 11:03 AM EDT

India gold falls, but festival demand averts crash

By Dev Varam

BOMBAY, Oct 25 ( Reuters ) - Gold prices fell sharply in panic selling in India, the world's largest consumer of the yellow metal as gold crashed to a 12-year low in world markets, dealers and analysts said on Saturday.

They said standard gold ( 24 carat ) lost 100 rupees or 2.3 percent per 10 grammes to 4,270 rupees in Bombay, India's commercial capital and its main bullion market.

``A 100 rupee fall does not amount to a crash. The real crash in India is yet to come. It's staved off for the time being by festival demand,'' said Vijay Kapoor, a leading gold jeweller.

India is preparing to celebrate Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights, on October 30, when traditionally demand for gold and silver scales to new highs.

``There is a lot of panic in the market. But most of it was neutralised by festival demand,'' Kapoor said. ``We are waiting for Diwali to be over to see Indian prices finding their level.''

``But the fall in gold prices at a time when Diwali is so close is a rare phenomenon,'' Kapoor said.

In New York, spot gold prices fell about five percent on Friday to new 12-year lows to end at $308.75/25 an ounce, compared to the London Friday afternoon fix at $316.65.

The crash followed news that the Swiss planned to sell part of their gold reserves, estimated at 1,400 tonnes, from 1999, which analysts said would keep world gold markets nervous.

Bullion analyst Madhusudan Daga said he expected Indian demand for gold to remain stable because the end of Diwali coincided with the start of the traditional wedding season.

``The wedding season lasting three months will sustain the demand for gold,'' Daga said.

Kapoor said he saw the chances of gold prices recovering as traders in Dubai, the Gulf re-export market that feeds Indian demand for gold, had quoted $314 per ounce on Saturday.

Some bullion dealers however, did not agree with this view.

``Any recovery in world markets will be short-lived. I expect world gold prices to go under $300 dollars, perhaps to around $280 in due course,'' said Bhayabhai Sanghavi, a leading dealer in Bombay.

``In India, there is festival buying. So the market is having some support,'' he said. ``But after Diwali, there will be a crash.''

India's annual gold consumption is estimated at around 500 tonnes a year, more than 300 tonnes of which are met through imports and the rest from recycled gold within the country.

The country produces a mere two tonnes a year from its dying and uneconomic mines in the south.

India's bullion market has turned soft after the government further liberalised its gold import policy on October 16.

The policy allows three state-run agencies and eight banks to import and sell gold freely to both exporters of jewellery and local dealers.

Currently, jewellery exporters get their gold supply against orders from importers abroad and local dealers pay a premium to acquire special import licences ( SIL ) to buy gold and silver.

Dealers said the SIL premium fell to 8.5 percent on Saturday from 11.5 percent on the previous day, indicating demand from importers of gold to take advantage of low world prices.

``When more more imports arrive, prices are going to get depressed further,'' said Sanghavi. ``I dont see any sign of recovery after that for quite some time.''

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:17 - ID#57232)
Donald: Any feeling about the SE Asia situation? Do you have any news about the Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank? Somewhere in the last several days, there was a post that HKSB was turning away local patrons due to the financial crisis. HKSB is a world-class bank. Any indication of any problems? I think the scenario now ranges from: a Tsunami of low cost goods from SE Asia - hitting the western world ( with or without mainland Chinese devaluation ) --- to an outright currency collapse. We may avoid the latter if the key worldwide banks such as HKSB survive intact.
Any opinions, info? I must admit I did not expect gold to drop to $310, but 1400 tonnes of gold sales from Switzerland might do it. However, if I know the Swiss, they will take 10-20years to do this. They can wait for the best price! I cannot believe that the ECU group could coerce the Swiss to sell their gold more quickly that this -- still need a public referendum anyway.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:18 - ID#2082)
Saturday Hangin'
Kiwi - Yankee Toilet Paper?? Hmmmmmmmm... since when??

Mr. Kiwi you are in a no win situation...what should you do??

Can't we all get along?? MikeS, I was gonna say something earlier but I thought I'd wait for one of your gems...I'm glad I did. You are a true gentleman and believe it or not I have profited greatly from your commentary and 'promotions' mind as well as wallet. I thank you kindly!!

Boyd - Welcome, hang around... enjoy the great afternoon

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:18 - ID#344308)
@true-love---------infatuation-on-the net------

phd in weine wacking ( whilst dreaming of gsc )

my, oh that perfume wafting over the ether---
eau le rat de peu'? yes it definitely is the smell of the gutter.. ( rat )

rat-man---care-ful, the world is a big and you are small, best not
tug on super-mans' cape........

cherokee!; ) witness-to-idiocy

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:19 - ID#260153)
silver bulls 38% down 13% on friday

gold bulls 30% down 3% on friday

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:21 - ID#252132)
@Getting Photographed:
jfahla: Agree regarding XAU. We have the support line coming in at 95 and that is the last gap needed to be filled. Two other gaps were filled earlier. Newmont in on its support line. Feel that we have just about completed a zig-zag correction down. Expect that on Monday morning at the opening there will be a small drop because of margin calls or individual investors who were at work and unable to sell on Friday might get out of the gold market. ..... Do feel that in less than 4 weeks we will be over the 110 previous high..... All of this is IMHO. p.s. this morning at the downtown library, a photographer from the loca newspaper came in to take pictures of people using the internet. The paper is doing a story on internet use at the libraries. Maybe my 15 seconds of fame. ( not 15 minutes!!- deflation ) : ) I'm out of here. Heading down to the pub to watch the, maybe, last game of the World Series...Gooooo whomever!!!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:21 - ID#431114)
I is very easy to predict lower prices for stocks and gold on Monday isn't it?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:21 - ID#26793)
Boyd: Welcome to Kitco.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:25 - ID#18970)
SPEED I think your analysis is correct. I said in a post on Thurs AM, when everyone was excited, that these crisis situations are when they are all over the PMs to prevent safe haven and potentially snow ball buying given the small size of the PM mkts in comparison to paper. This is the opposite of doing everything to keep worldwide money flowing into the oversupply bloated financial mkts.

Was the magnitude of this Swiss thing a sign of their panic?

I still dont fully understand the Asia situation but then again with the light media reporting they probably dont want us to fully understand as it might ebb flows into the financial bubble. But it looks bad per mkts.

Heard a 22 yr old brag about maxing credit cards into mutuals he expects 25% a year so why not take the low 6.9% introductory offers and invest and rol the credit card debt to a new low rate introductory offer in a year or six months. In the bank today overheard a gentleman ask for info on the bank's brokerage services and then saying " you cant have too many stock brokers".

I believe this bubble is so big AG is SH..Ting his pants along with Rubin and Wall St. The MKT is the US economy and therefore the World economy.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:25 - ID#32078)
gold accts
DONALD.. I still believe that there are too many chances for smaller banks run by crooks willing to go bankrupt in the act of wiping out savers. Charles Keating comes to mind. Do you suggest that FDIC still exist to guarantee each small bank's currency issuings? Which currency would we use for international transactions?

Suppose the US govt backed the dollar indirectly by offering to buy gold and sell gold at a definite price, which they don't do now. Of course any owner of dollars can convert now to gold through the free market or at his friendly gold and silver merchant. Just go buy it.

Back to my point. If the US govt offered to buy gold at say, $280 and offered to sell at, say $330, would that tend to provide a gold backing? Of course this spread could be tightened or loosened as the market moved, but it would at least express an official pricing area for the value of the dollar, and I think, tend to reduce volatility of other currencies against the dollar. Such a case would create a situation where the worldwide price of gold could drive the value of the dollar and our monetary policies, limiting our sovereignty over our own currency. Is that good or bad?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:25 - ID#26793)
Mike Sheller: It does not have to be fixed for my satisfaction. Prices in ounces is ok with me. Our Constition says fixed because the founding fathers selected dollars, not ounces. A gold exchange standard does not guarantee that you will be inflation free. Spain saw wild inflation when gold was liberated from those heathen savages. California saw inflation when gold was discovered at Sutter's Mill. A miner can deliver gold dust to the mint and be paid in coin or electronically paid, less a minting fee. Thats the way it used to work. E.Gold will work, currency will work, credit and debit cards can easily handle fractions of ounces.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:25 - ID#26793)
JTF: Nothing specific to HKSB but there was some banking news from China in general about 25% of loans being in default. Back in one of my earlier posts.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:26 - ID#263259)
@in the dirt looking for nuggets
Kiwi re 16:27 post: You need to shout that from the rooftops. Gold related securities + physicals reduce portfolio volatility! Now if we could just get everyone to shout it all at once, then this industry segment would go from last to first in profits next year! ( Plus your wife can't wear stock certificates, but she can wear gold. )

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:29 - ID#31868)
@answering the door
Larryn: I missed the whole thing. The doorbell rang and that was the end of that.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:31 - ID#57232)
Donald: I heard about bad loans on the SOE's -- 200 billion I think. apparently the 1 1/2 percent drop in interest rates was to aid refinancing of these loans. I never figured out who the creditors were, and how quickly they would be repaid. If China devalues their currency, do the foreign investors get paid back at the lower value? I would think so! I think one critical point is who the creditors are! Good to hear that you have heard nothing about HKSB.

C.V. Compton Shaw
(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:32 - ID#342115)
Although both the long and short term trend for both gold and the xau is now bearish, it is my opinion that current long investments in precious metals should be held. Why? It is my opinion that the recent gold sales had one purpose which is and was to prop up the dollar. It is my opinion, based upon Japanese candlestick analysis of the dollar market, that this strategy will fail with the result that precious metals should resume their bull market.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:33 - ID#26793)
JTF: Sorry, I see I did not respond fully re SE Asia. The feeling I get about Hong Kong is that it is a "no win" situation. Here is why.

Option 1: Keep the peg. Interest rates soar during the defense and the market tumbles.

Option 2: Do nothing. The market tanks waiting for the peg to be removed
always expecting it tomorrow.

Option 3: Remove the peg. The market tumbles and another round of devaluations starts around the region as countries strive to remain competitive.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:34 - ID#26793)
Larryn: I want to get the government out of my life. The FDIC was the direct cause of the Charles Keating type problem. With FDIC backing a banker can make any big risky deal he wants. If it pays off, he keeps the profits. If it fails the taxpayer pays. Where is the fear factor for the banker? All the risk is transferred to the taxpayer. The banker gets a free ride. The FDIC insurance rate was a flat fee, not adjusted for risk in any way. Private insurance would introduce a fee according to risk.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:37 - ID#263259)
Crackpot conspiracy theory #1485
I've been thinking a LOT about the timing of the recent price dip and wondering how it relates to the following: 1 ) The ratification of the global warming treaty. 2 ) Announcements by several automobile makers that they are on the verge of important breakthroughs in a ) catalytic converter technology, b ) fuel cell technology, c ) battery technology {all of which require various kinds of the precious metals and some of which, such as silver oxide and silver/cadmium batteries require truckloads of the stuff.} 3 ) Media presentations of irrelevencies such as the proposed Swiss sale. IMHCO ( In my humble crackpot opinion ) there may be a move afoot by the automobile industry to corner the market.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:39 - ID#347447)
The Gold Standard is alive & well
FJKDLA: GSTD is doing fairly well in this environment, true. Pluto is now 1 degree from its Neptune/Sun conjunction at 5 & 6 degrees Sagittarius respectively. Given that Pluto gets there deep into November, the real fun has not even begun. The significant move in GSTD should come between mid November and early Spring - say March. This MIGHT bode well, by proxy, for the entire goldstock group. I have a Pluto conjunction with Neptune also approaching for Lexington Strategic Silver Fund. Another clue as to potential group activity. Either the precious will indeed crash to nauseating levels, or the bull will emerge by then. I still think this is a great time to be "dollar cost averaging" bullion coins, and gold shares.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:42 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:43 - ID#26793)

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:43 - ID#31868)
Donald: My definition of a gold backed dollar. Hmmm. I must say that I really do not have a clue how this could be worked into a suitable model.

Your last post entered into several areas that I simply do not have the expertise to deal with. I just would very much like money that is 100% backed by gold. The first time I heard the American dollar was now backed by confidence I shivered. Some twenty odd years later, we are the largest debtor nation in history.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:47 - ID#347447)
Up to Speed
SPEED: As per usual, you've hit it on the head. If its one thing I've learned in this life, it is to live it my way, and not to pay any attention to the ducks. They are the real "quacks."

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:50 - ID#347457)
@PhD's are a dime a dozen
And there goes cat ID#227270: "Kiwi- But mine comes from a good school in a great country."

Well rat, that would explain your arrogance and insecurity which you express so well in each of your posts. I don't know why I even bother to type this. :-o There is no hope for you. PhD from a good school in a great country. Well, I also have one of them titles, however, mine is from a school which is about 400 year older that the Good 'ol USA. Does it make me a better person? Nope! Does it make me better person than you? I would like to think that because they don't teach good manners in "good schools" in this great country

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:52 - ID#31868)
Try CNBC folks, someone told me they are discussing gold.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:52 - ID#18970)
What is the supply present value of the sale of 1400 tonnes of gold from 2000-2010 discounted at the current forward rate and slightly discounted for the possibility the amount sold might be less. From this we can determine what the current effect of the Swiss announcement should be. Any Math peple out there?

Mike Sheller
(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:52 - ID#347447)
@THE Donald
DONALD: Why must the gold price be fixed? It is precisely the value of gold that the price ( whether we like it or not ) is established by a market process. That is how gold can compensate, over time, for currency dilution, or, for that matter, contraction. Market value is not arbitrary, though it may be subject to the volatility engendered by human psychology. It is PAPER note issue that must always be adjusted to the value of gold. Fixing gold's price has been, and will always be, a failure.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:53 - ID#32078)
banking currencies
DONALD.. Enjoy your posts, but about your idea of returning to banks issuing their own currencies... The US tried this in the 1800's and continually had bank panics which periodically ( about every 20 years ) wiped out the small saver who was doing what was expected of him and got screwed by financially adept citizens. It would resemble a series of small countries, all available to large speculators who could destroy one currency after another, taking in profits, one devaluation at a time. The only reason the US dollar has held up so far is because we are so damn big.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:54 - ID#251213)
Does anyone agree with me that the XAU has initial support at 95.14 an unfiled gap and strong support at 91.54? My worry is that if the 91.54 level is taken out there is no suport anywhere below that number

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:55 - ID#26793)

(Sat Oct 25 1997 19:58 - ID#186217)
On your next trip to Europe fly LOT POLISH AIRLINES/ their Central Bank does not plan to sell gold.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 20:00 - ID#26793)
Mike Sheller: I just checked the Constitution. Only gold and silver is required. The dollar is not mentioned. The term dollar was adopted by the Coinage act of 1792. No Constitutional amendment would be required to use ounces.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 20:05 - ID#414210)
There is definitely a problem with banking. Before confronting it, it's important to consider something fundamental; a definition of banking.

What makes a bank a bank?

Is it something to do with fractional reserve? Accepting deposits and making loans?

No. Anyone may borrow money from someone and lend some of it to someone else. If A loans 100 bucks to B, and B loans 80 bucks of it to C, and C loans 60 bucks of it to D - there's now 240 bucks worth of loans outstanding, backed by a fractional reserve of 100 bucks of base money.

Persons B and C have engaged in financial intermediation; specifically credit allocation and amplification. But they haven't committed banking.

If money lending isn't the sine qua non of banking, what is?

Here's a hint. In the example, after these various loans, who can spend how much?

Person A can spend nothing, until B repays some money. B can spend 20 bucks, person C 20 bucks, and person D 60 bucks.

But what would you call it if B leads A to believe she can still spend her 100 bucks, as readily as if B was safeguarding it for that purpose?

The defining act of banking is to circulate more claims to money than there is money to back the claims. Bankers apply fractional reserve practices to the payments system.

So what's the problem? After all, hasn't this been going on for hundreds of years?

Yes, and the historic result was a ratcheting debasement of the very substance of money: the gold which depositors entrusted to the safekeeping of bankers was taken and coercively replaced with government debt instruments.

Who cares? Everyone knows that gold is a barbarous relic, unfit for service as a monetary medium in a modern integrated economy. Granted, multiple generations of creditors past may have been fleeced by broken promises, devaluations, and repudiation. But the process is now complete, and legal tender backed by perpetual debt comprises a stable paradigm.

Maybe there is no problem. If you are confident that the figment standard will remain an adequate store of value, that the bank-administered payments systems is sufficiently robust, that politicians' promises are at least as good as gold - take no action.

On the other hand - maybe you should look into mechanisms for using gold as money.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 20:18 - ID#26793)

(Sat Oct 25 1997 20:21 - ID#18970)
Thanks for the John Crudele article. He has a perfect track record since I have followed him re Econ trends. His bearish bent on Asia's effects on US is truly ominous. He was a huge optimist at the end of 94 on both the economy and the budget with which I did not agree to my financial detriment. Where is Peutz and Geo S. Cole?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 20:27 - ID#269218)
( reference my post, of 9/27/97 16:48, : )


"When the 'tent' collapses... ( -'tent' - the U.S. dollar/markets/economy )
"it will not be the center-post... ( - U.S. stock-market )
"that goes first;
"it will be the 'side-posts' ... ( - So. Amer. & Europe ) ,
"and even the 'stakes' ... ( - the 'Asian Tigers' ) .

Sincerely yours,
David Blair Macrory, C.T.A.
Tierra$anta Trading
San Diego, CA

(Sat Oct 25 1997 20:38 - ID#414210)
Consider a rudimentary payments system.

Person A has 100 oz cash. Person A occasionally needs to buy things and pay bills. She does not, however, like to cart her cash around and dole it out to the various payees. Person B has an efficient system for delivering/transferring one person's cash to another person and offers to perform payment services on behalf of other people, for a fee.
Person A elects to leave her cash in Person B's custody, agreeing to the following contract:

B agrees to hold A's cash for the express purpose of distributing it, on A's orders, to various payees.
A may also elect at any time to have her ( remaining ) cash returned to her. As consideration for providing the specified services, A will pay B specified fees.

Ancient virtually natural conventions of law - prohibitions against theft/fraud - suffice to govern this commercial relationship. No banking charter required. Go do this if you can find the customers. This is the business which the e-gold folks are in.

Economizing on Reserves
What if B notices that A tends to spend only a relatively modest proportion of her cash at any given time and decides it's silly to leave all that money sitting idle when it could be earning interest or being put to some other profitable use?
Lets say B secretly loans some of it to C. Is this OK? Wouldn't that constitute misappropriation of funds?
Would it be different if the loan to C was of a type which could be repaid at a moment's notice? If A happened to unexpectedly show up some day and demand the return of all her remaining cash - couldn't one of B's helpers stall A while someone runs and fetches back the money from C?
Or maybe B has arranged a line of credit with D and E, just in case of nuisances such as this ( A wanting her cash back ) .
Maybe while someone is stalling A, someone could run and borrow enough cash.

Would these variations be permissible under the terms of the contract?
No. The contract specifies three and only three permissible dispositions of the cash:

paid to a payee on A's order,
returned to A,
paid to B as fee for services rendered.

Non-disclosure is the immediately obvious issue. If a deposit is purported to be available on demand [your checking account balance, for instance] but it really isn't, the misrepresentation constitutes fraud.

Do banks lead people to believe their deposits are available on demand? Undergraduate textbooks would seem to indicate so;
"Checkable deposits are payable on demand; that is, if a depositor shows up at the bank and requests payment by making a withdrawal, the bank will pay the depositor immediately. Similarly, if a person receives a check written on an account from a bank, when the bank is presented with the check it must transfer funds immediately to that person's account."

If you, as an individual, contract to do all this "immediate" and "on demand" stuff but instead are putting some of the money entrusted to you at risk - you are committing a crime. If you are chartered as a bank you may promise this logically impossible feat, in fact it's standard operating procedure. I have a problem with that.

"But", you object, "a bank has lots of depositors and can manage its cash flow very precisely. They learn from experience to maintain an adequate reserve such that when there is a demand for withdrawal they don't need to scramble around trying to get their hands on some cash."

Wellthe problem is, each and every "depositor" with money in a checkable account is contractually entitled to the same immediate access, whether by withdrawal or writing a check. If enough of them attempt to exercise their contractual entitlement at about the same time, some of them will not get the immediate cash promised. Recall when Jane and Michael Banks transformed the docile clientele of their daddy's bank into a panicked mob. By crying out "give me back my money!" Michael made it impossible for all those grown-ups to continue to pretend their checkable deposits were really available to them.

Imagine a scenario involving common embezzlement. The embezzler starts out by "borrowing" a relatively modest quantity of someone else's money, thinking "There's so much money that liquidity can easily be maintained despite diverting some of it. It'll never be missed and when my investments work out I'll put it all back". Apologists for banking apply this same rationalization.

Advocates of so-called free banking maintain that depositors have always recognized as a fact of life that not all funds deposited in checking accounts are really available on demand. After all, everyone is aware at some level of the phenomenon of a "run on the bank". These apologists occasionally even unearth rarities such as bank notes which explicitly contain language specifying the contractual terms of their conditionality.

So let's attempt to re-word the deposit contract to acknowledge conditionality:
We pledge to make a bookkeeping entry noting how much money you have deposited with us, and to keep track of the amount you remain entitled to. We will also hold some ready money and immediately transfer some of it to various payees in fulfillment of your orders, or immediately return money to you on demand... as long as not too many people try to spend or withdraw money simultaneously. If too many people try to draw money from us at once, we will try to liquidate some of the other assets we hold or borrow money from some other source and fulfill your order as soon as possible. Please be aware that we will be using some of the money you have entrusted to us for investments ( involving a degree of risk that some of the money will be lost ) so we can make additional income which will help to defray some of the expenses involved with servicing your account, perhaps allowing us to charge lower fees or even pass on some of the interest to you.

Is this good enough? Does your bank perhaps publish a more clear version? The debate on historic adequacy of disclosure generally focuses on the event of withdrawal. Payment systems, however, are the more critical focus. Does our sample disclosure adequately convey the conditionality involved with clearing a payment? Assuming your checkbook balance is sufficient, are there conditions under which your check may not be good - bank-related risk factors which could prevent your check from clearing? Suppose for instance a currency trader, trading the bank's account, manages to lose an amount greater than the entire equity capital of the bank. Don't his wagering activities constitute a risk that the check you write may fail to clear ever? Or perhaps the currency trader works for some other bank, but your bank has an outstanding daylight overdraft on the CHIPS system which requires an incoming payment from his bank in order to be good funds. After all, a greater volume flows through the CHIPS system each day ( most of it interbank currency speculation/hedging ) than all deposits in all banks in the world combined. The fine print of your bank's deposit contract doesn't adequately disclose conditions which could cause your check to fail to clear. Imagine the field day malpractice attorneys would have with a surgeon whose pre-op counseling was as scanty and non-transparent as the typical bank's risk disclosure for depositors!

I maintain that banks not only fail to disclose the nature and risks of demand deposits, they have always expended considerable effort to obscure them. They gravitate toward pretentious architecture. [Check out the ad for Republic National Bank that often runs on Grant's back cover - why pictures of imposing buildings? Are we to derive confidence from their visible exposure to volatile, illiquid commercial real estate?]. Look through a catalog of worthless ( other than their value as collectibles ) bank notes - get a sample pack and admire the awe-inspiring engravings. Note, even nowadays, how many bank ads show pictures of bullion coins. Or, if you want to hear some confusing bluster, try asking your bank's local branch manager what reserve they hold against checkable deposits.

Money lending is risky business. If someone who owes you money defaults - you suffer regardless of the adequacy of prior disclosure. So what difference does it make whether if it's lost by an explicit money lender or through the operations of a faulty payments system?

The difference: the repetitive failures of a payments system founded on a premise of contradiction lead to systematic debasement of the circulating monetary medium.

Historic Record
Paper money and checkbook money were introduced as convenient substitutes for precious metal coins. No one would have ever accepted them in the first place on any other basis. The most solemn guarantees were uttered and endless meddling by legislators was undertaken in the name of preserving the soundness of the circulating medium; the ability to honor redemption on demand.

The undeniable historic fact is that despite all such protestations every bank and every Nation-State eventually repudiated their obligation of redemption. Was this inevitable because of the embedded illogic we are attempting to expose? [Yes.] Or was it just the way things happened to play out? Might it have turned out otherwise? Was it just the unfortunate alignment of planets or the actions of particular bad guys or ignorant officials? More ominously - now that there is no longer any pretense of an official linkage of fiat money and monetary metals - is the process complete?

I maintain that the ratchet of debasement, described below, remains fully operational and that the process will continue until all fiat money becomes utterly worthless. That's not even the worst of it. If history is any guide ( and it is ) , when monetary systems collapse, politicians quickly learn to denounce and murder scapegoats. The guillotine was not trotted out until after the Conventionists of the 1790's destroyed the Franc ( and the French economy ) . The salad days of Robin Hood populists such as Peron inevitably degenerate into futile command economy effrontery culminating in bloody repression.

Here's the model for how the ratchet works.
A sovereign wants money, typically for war. Lacking sufficient power to steal more of it, or credit to borrow it, he issues bank charters; special permission to counterfeit, to circulate more claims to money than there is money to back the claims. The sovereign perpetrates this in order to borrow and spend the newly created medium ( which appears identical to the previous, somewhat better medium ) . The newly counterfeited medium is declared a legal tender, so debts incurred with the previous ( better ) money can be repaid with the newer ( less valuable ) money. The banker accomplice profits by deriving interest income from loaning out counterfeit money. Sovereign loans themselves are used as base money "backing" additional issuance/deposits.

The economy is initially stimulated, analogous to the invigorating effects observed when steroids are first administered.

Bankers, acting in their capacity as money lenders, exhibit herd behavior. As memory of previous credit crises fades, lending practices become more exuberant. Standards of acceptable risk are relaxed, and interest rate spreads ( proceeds of lending activity vs. cost of funds ) become narrower. More and more credit-money is called into existence, bidding up an apparent appreciation of financial assets.

Eventually, the process peaks as it becomes apparent that the mountain of debt cannot be realistically serviced. Revulsion and collapse of asset valuations follows.

It is at this point that the integration of money lending/payment system works its most insidious harm. The historic political remedy is suspension: repudiation of the explicit or implicit contract to redeem bank notes or checkbook balances in coin. This de facto devaluation is later ratified by de jure devaluation.

[This process - debasement as result of financial crisis - could not occur in the absence of fiduciary media. If there was no counterfeit medium - if all money substitutes functioning as payments system were 100% backed - every money lender in the world could go belly-up without occasioning an excuse for debasement.]

Historically, rather than correct the fraud at the root of cycles of repudiation and debasement, politicians have derived further gains in power by socializing the risks of money lending. Socializing means spreading the risk, diffusing among a broader group, detaching actions from consequences. The same logic can be applied to water pollution. If a toxic effluent is dumped into a relatively small volume - the harm shows up more quickly than when diluted into an ocean.

The problem with this approach is that localized failures are attenuated and harmful distortions are not corrected. Failure can be legislated out of existence to a point; the point where complete systemic collapse looms and there are no further golden gooses to slaughter.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 20:38 - ID#18970)
CNBC = Can Not Be a Contrarian.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Oct 25 1997 20:39 - ID#347447)
Ounces, grams, kilos, pretty soon its real money
DONALD: There is nothing official or magic about "ounces." Any weight or measure of gold is the point. A true commodity money standard ( ie GOLD ) is based on measurements or payments, or "prices", which are quantities of the selected commodity money. In a true gold standard, prices are in amounts of gold. Be they grams, ounces, kilos, or whatever. Each divisible, of course, by the smaller measurement in order to keep track of price relationships. But prices must be in weights or measures of gold, NOT in paper sheets with numbers printed on them. The paper sheets are ( or should be ) proxies, or receipts, for the metal. The Constitution recognized this. "Unbacked" curreny is first of all a total financial aberrration. And also likely unconstitutional to boot. By the way, the word "dollar" comes from the German "thaler" - a gold coin stamped with the veracity of its issuer that was accepted as the standard at the time. Much as perhaps a Maple Leaf enjoys the confidence of many people today. Though apparently not quite enough people at present, for MY "money".

Mike Sheller
(Sat Oct 25 1997 20:47 - ID#347447)
you could be an implacable foe
IMPLACABLE: Right on. The Federal Reserve System is the institutionalization of Bank Fraud. Fractional Reserve banking ( Fictional Reserve banking, I call it ) is the foundation of massive and chronic inflation, and the hidden, ongoing, and unending confiscation of saved citizen wealth by government. It is not only dishonest, it is criminal. If every depositor demanded their funds at once, the entire banking charade would evaporate into chaos. With electronic banking, the day will come when cyber-runs on banks will bring the systematic fleecing of the citizenry to an ignominious halt.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 20:56 - ID#30116)
@Theory of un-intended consequences
I don't know if anyone has made mention of this, but how about the theory of un-intended consequences here. The lower gold goes, the more attention it commands. For better or worse, if there is a cabal driving gold lower, then this dramtic drop is not in their best interests, for it will draw too much attention to gold. I know there are a good many people waiting to buy somewhere in the neighborhood of $270/oz. It'll be interesting to see what happens here. Clearly, there must be a bottom somewhere for gold, and before anyone says anything, no I don't have a clue as to where it is.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:03 - ID#26793)

(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:10 - ID#217338)
Old man--What say you? Is the start of something big or are you still waiting for a retest of the highs?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:13 - ID#26793)

(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:23 - ID#372131)
@B is an embezzler
If B lends to C part or all of A's fund , it would be called embezzlement in the real world. But not so in la-la land.

By accepting A's money ( or any other asset ) B has assumed the role as a warehouseman. The contract between the two is know as a bailment. B receives a receipt for the funds placed in A's warehouse ( bank ) . Because it is a bailment, A must stand ready to turn over to B, upon presentation of the receipt, all or whatever part B wishes to reclaim. This is 100% warehousing.

But banks are allowed to engage in fractional reserve warehousing. A bank would not have to have on hand B's or all other depositors assets. They are in fact embezzlers. By teir power to create money they are also counterfeiters.


(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:25 - ID#26793)

(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:27 - ID#261118)
@ tolerant1 and any gold backed dollar enthusiasts
Donald awnsered that question for me and others some time ago: we've 460,098,000,000 dollars in circulation ( that does'nt count ANY CREDIT OR SAVINGS ) , and we've 263,390,000 ounces of gold; that's .0005724 ounces per dollar. You can use the gov.s fixed price or current spot ( which will give you about 17.7% of a dollar backed by gold ) . As Donald however notes, that figure is at the most simplistic level,options, derevitives, credit,counterfiet and God knows what notwithstanding.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:30 - ID#261118)
@ the spa
Honestly, for our Gov. to even insinuate that OUR DOLLAR has ANY gold backing is an enormous FART IN THE HOT TUB!!!!!!!
( they wouldn't dare )

(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:32 - ID#31868)
Badger: I am working on an answer to your second to last post. I am still working on the ABC thing. Only recently I figured out See Spot Run. Gimme a minute. I'll be back at ya.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:35 - ID#364147)
MR EB: "hot air" is right.......Five bucks??...put in FIVE HUNDRED...4-1

(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:39 - ID#427357)
Are the dramatic market upheavals WORLDWIDE in recent weeks trying to tell us something that is NOT YET apparent?

The once mighty Tiger stock markets of Asia have seen securities prices plummet -- on Thursday Hong Kong's Hang Seng Stock Market Average losing more than 10% in ONE TRADING SESSION! The Nikkei penetrated the psychologically important 17000 level - purportedly the sacrosanct value where the Japanese banking system begins to come apart at the seams. Many South Sea currencies lambasted, and financial institutions beginning to crumble. And this last week the selling panic spilled over into Wall Street, which is dragging down most European stock indices.

For some time prior to this gold has inexorably been wasting away... that is until yesterday when it suffered a coup d'grace - diving more than $16 in a single day for a loss of 5%. It is painfully obvious a draconian change is taking place... but what is the prime motive force... and its purpose?

I cannot discard the helpless feeling something is going on that is not readily apparent... at least not to me. Last night in shifting through all the world's debris in search of some rhyme or reason for the cause of these dramatic market moves worldwide I reread the June report, "SEVEN GOLDEN THREADS OF THE GLOBAL QUILT" by the Oracle of Alberta - in which he alludes to the possibility of A SINGLE WORLD CURRENCY

A Single World Currency? To contemplate such a scenario of power and control seems almost preposterous. But is it? Consider for a moment the events that would usher in a single world currency in an electronic medium. These might include: financial and stock market chaos; the collapse of the U.S. dollar, Yen or the stillbirth of the Euro; war in the Middle East; a worldwide banking crisis; or other global unrest.

Is the worldwide financial paradigm changing as we speak? Are global market forces reacting simply to imbalances, or is there a specific force orchestrating the financial and monetary machinations... and if the latter, what is their game-plan and purpose? The Oracle of Alberta has an intriguing and plausible idea of what is really going on:

(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:40 - ID#194311)
Sound reasoning, really brings us back to the simple fact that we need a finite resource as a reference, this limits money "creation" and the insidious usery inherent in the current banking system.

Time we had a messiah to kick the money changers out of the temple.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:44 - ID#263259)
historical footnote
The word thaler is most commonly associated with the silver coin of the same name produced by Austria, Hungary and Bohemia. There were many coinings, but the most popular was the one showing the picture of Archduchess Maria Theresa ( 1717-80 ) . During the time of the American revolution the Maria Theresa thaler as well as similarly sized coins from a variety of european countries were circulated in the US and it was popular in parts of the former Holy Roman Empire until the rise of communism in the 1940's. ( IMHO, although if pressed I can dig up the references. )

(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:49 - ID#31868)
Badger: First of all, me, I want 100% backed by gold money. I have to give this a great deal of thought as it relates to your post discussing how much money is in circulation, how much gold we SUPPOSEDLY have in a vault somewhere and how to proceed from there.

This is not my bailywick sotospeak. I do not mean to be evasive, but, I need to give this some thought. I have an electronic metal account, and I have coins and I have monopoly money from the reserve.

How does all that translate into an operational system and take into consideration how it all works as it relates to what to do with the debt, how much is in circulation, and so forth and so on.

Goodness. Let me clarify the above, if I sounds like I am confused, I AM.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 21:56 - ID#26793)
Badger: As of October 22, 1997, we are at $486,418,000,000 in circulation.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:07 - ID#2082)
Tequila, Nebiollo, Fosters, Sinsemilla??
Not necessarily in that order...

Ted - I'm MR. after my call, right?? Oh my... And you want to raise the stakes?? 5 Hun?? at 4 to 1?? If that makes your boat float...Let's get it on ;- ) Fish down 4 - 0... DOH!

Toleratnt1 - What is your favorite tequila?? I have a certain fondess for the blue agave myself...havin' some Herradura esta noche...mmmmmmmm good. numb thyself and speak with 'JA' the supreme creator

go gold...south like my spelling

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:10 - ID#31868)
Cuervo 1800 - I like regular octane.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:11 - ID#26793)

Charles Solender
(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:12 - ID#288229)
Just saying hi to all the gold bugs out there....I thought something was very fishy in that headline about the Swiss being encouraged by their banking panel to unload all that is as if they are saying "Gold is no longer money"...Please add your reflections

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:16 - ID#261118)
@ tolerant1
Tis perception, no less. I own ( and have owned ) a retail jewelry store for over 20 years. I'm a sorry business man, but as an artisan/craftsman, I excel. I've worked ever day with gold and silver for all these years and I still tire not of their splendid properties,profound simplistic beauty, and historical lore. I am presently fourty three years of age and have had the unique fortune of being in business but a year or so when the great bull ( severe inflation ) era unfolded right before my eyes. Some days people would be lined up outside my store to buy som remnant of gold or some old ( 90% ) silver US coins as a hedge against real inflation. The local furniture store was advertising furniture for silver coin and the local gas stations were selling gas at 10 cents a gallon ( that means at one point they were getting 4.70$ per gallon! ) , and people got their FIRST TASTE OF AN UNREGULATED PRECIOUS METALS PRICES. Ok, so the hunts cornered the market, so wha'd we learn: they got killed yet some have made them look like novices since then just look at the manipulation going on now!
My point is it will take a flood; overwhelming sentiment, fear, a turn of psyche "en mas",unparelleled,and you will see what I saw twenty years ago. "You are standing in line at the ticket booth, the ball game is going on inside; you hear the cheers; feel the suspense and drama as you stand in line to buy YOUR ticket. The announcer calls out;"three minutes remaining in the fourth! ( the score is reiterated,all withen earshot know the truth ) , people already have begun to leave the stadium,they've had their fill....
Do you buy a ticket?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:16 - ID#255151)

Panda @ 20:56--I don't have a clue as to where the bottom in Gold is either. I would like every possible negative for Gold to be publicized and promoted! Hell, why not start a rumor that the US "proposes" a 2000 ton sale of Gold in 1999? Gold is suffering a death by a thousand cuts. We know that any and all of these weapons will be used to keep the price suppressed. I think this Swiss business used up a lot of powder on the other side. Do you notice how it is costing them more "bucks" to get less "bang"?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:17 - ID#182211)
Re Donald 19:07:
You suggest that there is a legitimate position for government as a regulator of banks. A true free market banking system is quite capable of regulating itself, thanks, whereas government intervention has been a major source of instability, in fact probably the biggest source, for centuries. A good book that addresses the question of regulation in banking is _LAISSEZ-FAIRE BANKING_ by Kevin Dowd. See to order this or other books on the subject.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:20 - ID#414210)
Kiwi - No messiah required [a messiah invariably implies authoritarian coercion]. How about a profit seeking person, or group of people, who know that the big gains come from carefully fostered goodwill. No one-time score could compare with the value of an unsullied brand name. Have you ever seen any other monetary/payments system with anything like e-gold's Examiner utility? Can you imagine any bank ever doing that - especially given the squishy prevailing definition for a unit of money?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:20 - ID#31868)
Charles: Gold is the only real money. Read the Badger post above. It pretty well sums up my sentiments.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:23 - ID#408152)
daydreaming in sacramento
Has anyone here shorted the Hong Kong dollar? Can you buy options on it? After last week's shocker, it's mighty tempting to venture into the unknown waters of currency trading -- well, at least it's tempting to stick a toe in, but only if I can buy options. Problem is, I don't know if it's even traded on any of the US exchanges.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:27 - ID#288229)
This may sound far out but does anyone thing that there are conspiratrial interests driving down the gold price so as they can get in at the bottom?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:28 - ID#403267)
Speed, may I quote your 19:11 on another forum ( SI ) or is that a no-no? I just thought it was great.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:30 - ID#364147)
Right!!....4-1 ....

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:32 - ID#29082)
Roebear: yessir, that's Speed with two "e"s.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:37 - ID#31868)
Charlie: Go to yesterday's posts and scroll through. You will find many differing opinions on that very subject. Since you are new here I think that would be best.

I certainly have some strong opinions, but it is only one of many here, so I think it fair to let you make up your own mind by reading varied viewpoints.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:39 - ID#29082)
@old corny one liners
Charlie: Conspiracy theories? here? I feel like a mosquito at a nudist colony. I know what to do, but I hardly know where to begin.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:45 - ID#18970)
Goldilocks/everyone in the world in one asset class/ the world and especially US economy dependent on this asset class so credit expands to buy more goods ( foreign ) /foreigners need the buying to maintain their own economies and buy US financial assets not to mention avoid selling them so US confidence stays up to buy more from them on credit. Gold goes up goldilocks is in trouble and the "circle of life" Financial comes to an end. Clearly the timing and nature of both the Aussie and Swiss show an agenda ie a Friday after technical weakness. Silver is in shortage and could drag metals higher, I believe the massive gold attack on Fri was aimed at shortage silver to break down its technicals so it would not drag gold higher. The manipulators have completely relied on the technical game of making sure support is broken by lemming selling. This is why the long sideways action after a raid before they need another technical attack. All to make US dollar and Bonds the Safe haven.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:45 - ID#31868)
Badger: I have been reading the posts. There is a great deal of meat on the bones of this subject. I think we have to seperate two items. The debt and such that the US currently holds.

Then the money item. Now I know they are intertwined, but that seems to be the root of the problem. The government should not be in the banking business and the money whatever, should not be in the government business. The two obviously make for terrible bedfellows

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:49 - ID#31868)
Badger: Has anyone figured out how much gold would cover the US debt?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:51 - ID#315256)
@New Gold Sale Announced
The Federation of Galactica sector space announced today, that it expects to sell 1.76 X 10 to the 38th power Quazillion ounces of Gold on the open market over the next millenia. The announcement of this sale co-incides with the discovery of a few trillion more ounces at the new Asteroid field in Andromeda 6. Since the new currency the "Zari" has become the standard throughout the universe, it has been determined that Gold no longer has any intrinisic value other than for making plates, ornmanents, and lighting fixtures, thus the sale of all known Universe reserves will have little or no impact on the recent upheavel in the Cross Galaxian financial debt problems which came to a head last week when several populations of speci from widespread planetary systems no longer had faith in the "Zari" as a standard of currency.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:52 - ID#338126)
Ron you can short the HK $ by shorting any of the HK listed stocks that trade on the NY or the Hong Kong web that trades on the Amex.

I was short Hong kong right after the July 4 th hand over. Thats was the good part, the bad part is that I bought August 275 puts that traded on the AMEX. Everything happend as I thought it would but not when I thought it would. I new that if the HK wouldn't devalue then interest rates would probably rise to 500% over night as they did in 1984 to defend the HK $. Either way it would spell disater for HK shares. Spilled milk. Damn.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:52 - ID#261118)
@T1 (the tequilla person)
Indeed T1; government keeps kicking the damn covers off!!!,snores'n farts a lot..A younger ( now repentant ) G-Span found fault in same..

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:55 - ID#251213)
Ron be careful about shorting those shares. Thailand rallied for about a week after they devalued.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:58 - ID#30116)
Auric -- If you find the bottom, please! Tell me first! :- ) )
Just kidding Auric! I think I will wait and see what develops at this point. Hell, who knows? Maybe the Germans will sell their gold too! They were going to sell some of their oil reserves in the past. Does anyone get the feeling here that the family jewels are up for sale, but the 'family' denies that they're hard up for some REAL money?

BTW, Amex oil index on the weekly charts looks sick. Beware!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 22:59 - ID#257123)
Auric your wrong about gold suffering a death from a thousand cuts.

It's a death from a 1000 slashes

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:02 - ID#261118)
@Billy Mummy's sock drawer
LGB, ( can't resist ) ,..Bhat what's Pound of Zari's worth anyway? ( I say a Bhat'n da hand's wort tu Aussie dollars'n da bush.
Oh, stop me before I post again...
Hey, I can seccumbe to mindless drivel faster'n anyone here ok?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:07 - ID#30116)
jfkla -- you beat me too it!

Ron -- I was going to suggest the WEBS ( World Equity Benchmark Shares ) that trade on the AMEX. They are exempt from the uptick rule, so you can short in a falling market. One caveat here, we've had one dead cat bounce here. See how far it goes before you jump in the frey. They are not done with this in Hong Kong. I believe the largest chunk of their market is represented by REITs of one flavor or another. Very sensitive to real estate market. And what is real estate sensitive too? And how do you defend a currency? Sounds like a mutually exclusive set to me.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:07 - ID#261118)
@the cash register (tolerant1)
T1: Ask Donald but my guess is it's uncalculable as theres so many factors which must be considered, perhaps if we were to narrow it down a bit,say,inclusive of M2, ( I believe tht includes 30 year treasuries ) , it might be "awnserable".

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:07 - ID#31868)
Badger: $460,098,000,000 in circ? Good grief. Even if gold were $100,000oz it would not help. The only we this can cleaned up is to let the whole house of cards go crash. It is not pretty to contemplate, but that is the only way this thing is going to end.

The one world, new world, whatever. I see absolutely no other way.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:08 - ID#31868)
Badger: Disregard my last post.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:09 - ID#315256)
@ Speed, Sheller
Speed your 18:12 is self contradictory. On one hand you seek to applaud a belief in "absolutes" on then on the other you embrace existentialism by implying that it doesn't matter WHAT someone believes, as long as they believe it with zeal. When we have very good scientific facts at our disposal on a given subject, such as say vaccination, and then a band of Zealous fanatical Morons comes along with an "Anti Vaccine" movement, claiming to have all kinds of evidence to support their views, whose side would you like to be on? Especially when you find out that dozens, hundreds, and even thousands of deaths have occureed because we leave the "Anti Vaccine" movement unchalleneged by Scinetific debate?

That's the sad state of today's thinking my friend. Mush brained snake oil salesmen THRIVE in today's society because people are no longer taught to think critically. Now we just go with the flow and let any totally disproven nonsense ( like Astrology ) , get preached unchallenged by the known facts we have so readily available for anyone willing to look.

It is not the Critical thinkers that are the ignorant ones Speed, but the preachers and followers of disproven nonsense. I have a neighbor who recently came close to death because she listened to some "Holistic health" types who talked her into going to Mexico to have a "Cleansed Urea treatment" ( her own urine re-injected ) , which alomst cost her her life. That's the kind of place we live today. Pat no attention to decades of good science, Doctors who have devoted themselves to research after 22 years of school, huge volumes of known information. NOoooooo, instead give equal credibility to MORONS who preach absolute hogwash with no basis at all, to the ignorant and go completely unchallenged by critical thinking.

the question isn't "Do I believe it's true?" Speed. The question is, "Is it true even if I don't exist?"

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:14 - ID#31868)
Badger: There is one way and only one way we can level the playing field. The US Govt will have to default and go bankrupt. All assets would have to be sold until the Govt debt is paid in full. All at once or over a very specific time frame.

No new programs, no new nothing. They are broke, and like bankrupt people, they have to make good on their debt's or declare insolvency.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:18 - ID#255151)

Panda--Good analogy, selling the family jewels. At some point the BIG SHORTS will have to cover the BIG BOTTOM, wherever it happens to finally sit! In Re to cuts/slashes--This Gold market lately reminds me of the Monty Python Holy Grail scene where that Black Knight gets cut to pieces and insists on keeping the fight going! Swiss Gold sale...Just a flesh wound!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:19 - ID#30116)
Current market weather conditions in Asia?? :- ) )

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:19 - ID#261118)
@Panda'n T1
On your most recent post; Germany has MORE GOLD than the Swiss: 95 mil. ozs. How that rides against the mark is anybody's guess but I'll bet it's a far cry from the Swiss Constitutional provision for 40

% of circulated Francs.

Tolerant1: If our Government even acknowledged the current price of gold rather than it's ( the gov.s ) last offical price of 42.22$ per oz it would send a strong message but it would fly in the face of all the've worked to achieve...

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:21 - ID#32051)
your methods, please
There seems to be several posters who have been good ( or lucky ) at forecasting the price of gold. Please share with us how you arrived at your conclusions. Thanks

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:21 - ID#30116)
Auric -- :- ) ) :- ) )

Just a 'flesh wound' eh? :- ) )

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:21 - ID#315256)
Tolerant, Gold backed currency would never work, It limits our options too much in a world economy and a growing economy. All we'd get with such an "Absolute" currency is an "Absolute" guarantee of a severe depression.
What we need is exactly what we have. A completely independant FED which seeks to keep the fine balance between expansion and inflation. A very imperfect system, but more people have become more prosperous with today's fiscal policy than would have been possible otherwise, and I'm not talking about on paper either. I'm talking about real tanglibles such as our GNP, productivity, etc.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:22 - ID#31868)
LGB: Yeah, but!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:23 - ID#261118)
@ The nunnery
Auric:"The Knights of Knee would have a shrubbery,..a nice shrubbery, yes yes!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:25 - ID#30116)

badger -- Please! Don't give the Germans any ideas for another one of those 'committees'. We've seen what the Swiss 'committee' did. :- ) )

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:26 - ID#31868)
learner: To save you the pain; Some use charts, gut feel, the stars, donuts, waves, waves and cycles, cycles, tea leaves and some do whatever different people on this site assert to be the right thing to do. And then some do the complete opposite of that.

No Kidding - check the last several days postings and just scroll through at random.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:28 - ID#261118)
@ the summit
Panda, went to your Mt. I see they spend the "batt" there too! soooo, what'dya but on a mountain top?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:29 - ID#222167)
Tolerant One: The last time an audit was made of the gold in Fort Knox was during the late 1950s. That was about the same time that foreign central banks began cashing in their Dollars for gold.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:30 - ID#31868)
LGB: But this supposed living better and GNP and such is all based on a fraud and deception.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:32 - ID#31868)
Puetz: Somehow this tells me there is no gold in Fort Knox.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:33 - ID#30116)
Well, I guess this proves Earl's point. T.A. isn't worth sqaut in this market.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:37 - ID#261118)
I ask that ( frequent ) question of Donald some time ago and he found the last offical audit was 1948. I'm interested in the idea of a more recent audit as you suggest. Tis good info is it?, where'd it come from? Also please elaborate on this past phenomena of CBs cashing in "dollars for gold", sound the exact inverse of current events..

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:38 - ID#18970)
@Just a thought
What if currency is just a matter of confidence and not supply and demand as we note. Based on currency supply and the amount of PMs the latter should go much higher. BUT, the US has won two World Wars plus the Cold War. All other nations use the US as their benchmark as by comparison we are either responsible or have the biggest corporate foundation in history and tech development IBM/Microsoft/Intel/Boeing etc. In other words the US is the primo military power and primo Tech power while others in the world either depend on us or are trying to emulate us or steal from us ( China ) . This adherence to free mkt prinicipals in our own country and the wealth created gives the fed the right to print all the dollars it wants for whatever it wants as we are the economy and currency of last resort on a comparative basis. Until something comes to unhinge this why should gold rise? Comments fellow bugs /Please Refute/ Thanks!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:38 - ID#30116)
@The weather
badger -- A temperature of 6 1/2 degrees F with 70~80 mile per hour winds. Sounds like the Asian markets to me. The 'weather' went from hot and balmy to glacial in a heart beat.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:42 - ID#261118)
@ completely off the subject
Panda, you a mountain man? This summer I got a chance at Long's Peak, one of Colorado's 14er's. Unbelieveable.. If you've ever been that high you know what I mean: even in July it was moody weather up there; crampons'n ice axe manditory: talk about the big picture...

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:43 - ID#30116)
@Group Therapy
Well, that's enough 'group therapy' for this evening. :- )

Good night all, and who knows? Maybe it'll be 2 - 8 - 0 next? :- ( Anybody want to place odds on Monday's stock market action??? We did have a decidedly down Friday.....

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:44 - ID#29082)
@No wake zone
LGB: You imply what I did not intend and I am vaccinated?! Did you run afoul ( pun ) of the word "quack"? I was making a play on words, so that I could use the really cool phrase "nibbled to death by ducks". Mike was sounding a little down ( another great pun ) about being taken to task for "promoting" what he believes. I am firmly convinced that truth is not subjective. I also believe that one must earn the right to dialog with others about personal convictions. When sailing through a crowded harbor, one should not create waves, even if one believes he has the best boat. ( or the only true boat or the only boat that will get you there ) It is ok to toot your horn and let everybody know who you are and what you stand for and that's what got this little game started in the first place. Mike was picked on for asserting ( promoting ) his beliefs.

When and if Mr. Sheller wants to know what my convictions are, he will ask and we will have what is called a dialog. Or I could call him names and harrass him and that would surely convince him that he is wrong. ( that last was biting sarcasm )

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:45 - ID#31868)
How come we can't have a gold backed unit. I think there has to be a way to do this. The system we have now is bankrupt, corrupt and let's face it, this house of cards is going to clank sometime soon.

Personally I think it already has. All the spin in the world is not going to stop it. People are nervous all over the planet. People that up until last week said gold is dead are now say "Well, I think it's prudent for everyone to have 5%-10% of their assets in gold."

Good gravy people, if just a fraction of the scared money goes into the metals and coins, those markets will explode to the upside. Like nothing we have ever seen. Like badger said earlier, who is not going to want a ticket?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:46 - ID#222167)
I reiterate my forecast from a week-and-a-half ago: The panic-phase of a stock market crash began about October 15th. While the actual high occurred on August 5th, the 10 weeks between August 5th and October 15th were part of a 10-week topping process.

Six weeks are the norm before a crash. But in the year 1720, it took the South Sea Bubble 10 weeks to complete its top. That appears to have been repeated in 1997. Virtually all stock markets around the world began to dive within days ( some before, some after ) of the October 15th full moon.

A Halloween Massacre still seems likely. On October 31st, the scariest ghosts and goblins are likely to be on Wall Street, not your street or my street. I will repeat, October 15th was the STARTING POINT of the financial panic. The climax is normally reached 2 to 3 weeks later.

That's why October 31st is a good guess for the climax. In any case, the upcoming week should be devastating for stocks. A drop of 2000 to 4000 points should not be unexpected.

By the way, the rush into US Treasury Bonds is like jumping out of the fire and into the frying pan. US Treasuries are no safe-haven. Gold and silver are.

The Swiss announcement strikes me as anti-climactic. Anytime you can buy gold under $1000, it's a steal. At $300, jump immediately. The vast amount of gold holdings are now in private hands. Central banks are now weak and failing institutions -- on the decline. Gold is moving from weak hands to strong hands.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:46 - ID#255151)

Panda--As the Good Senator might say--Was it OVER when the Germans bombed the LBMA?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:47 - ID#408152)
in the Sauza Commemorativo and eyeing the Tres Generaciones
Damn! You guys had to go and mention good tequila, didncha? Stuff's as good as fine scotch. Oh, well, one or two little triple shots won't hurt now will they?

fjkld;as, jfkld, Panda: Thanks much. Can't trade stocks. Only have a commodities account. Good thing, too; with my luck I'd probably just go and short the hottest stock in HK -- the one that'll more'n offset losses due to a sliding currency.

Must say, though, these mkts ain't dull, tequila or no tequila!

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:49 - ID#261118)
WW... Confidence is exactly what every one here is talking about; it'll take a "LOSS OF CONFIDENCE" for the dollar to fall and gold to rise: you pick the time/event/place if you like, just remember that humanity's greatest faults are greed and impatience; both work against you here, go if you like and read my 22:16 and tell me if your to buy a ticket...

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:50 - ID#31868)
I gotta tell ya, I like the way this fella Puetz thinks.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:51 - ID#18970)
The value of gold in history is based on its certainty of return to the holder ie no devaluation. The US legal and Economic system has provided these safeguards so the amount of US debt is irrelevant. You have a problem in US go to Court and those with big bucks will get at least a fair hearing. Compared to other coountries the US is stable not to mention the no. 1 superpower so why gold?

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:51 - ID#30116)
I occasionally head up to mount Washington. The summit has a weather observatory open to the public seasonally. I've been out to Glacier National park and Waterton up in Canada ( Yes, I know, it's in Alberta province. ) Very nice areas. I hiked up a couple of 'hills' in Glacier. It's amazing how fickle the weather is at altitudes over 8,000 feet.

Really gone now......................

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:52 - ID#364147)
@ Puetz + Panda
Puetz: Boilermakers lookin good....Panda: thankx...will get back @ ya..GO TRIBE!...and GoLd

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:53 - ID#31868)
To one and all a good evening. Via Con Dios......................Peace

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:56 - ID#261118)
@ the franc
WW, GO BACK!,and look at the dollar to ( swiss ) Franc chart from 1973 till now and tell me our Gov. "has safeguards'n protections" against such "stuff"!! The dollar has slid misserably in this period against the gold backed franc.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:57 - ID#386276)
Posted yesterday but on checking found that it did not load properly.

Who's buying what.
Here is a spreadsheet showing the closes, vols, $values,o/i, plus changes for US gold, silver and SPX options

Shows some strong buying of calls in precious and puts in SPX.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:57 - ID#386276)
Posted yesterday but on checking found that it did not load properly.

Who's buying what.
Here is a spreadsheet showing the closes, vols, $values,o/i, plus changes for US gold, silver and SPX options

Shows some strong buying of calls in precious and puts in SPX.

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:58 - ID#261118)
@ adieu
A fond farewell to all "K-ites; untill tomorrow my compliments and regards to all..........

(Sat Oct 25 1997 23:59 - ID#18970)
BADGER AGREED but that was before WE won the cold WAR/1991 is really a new beginning point for viewing markets.