Nick! ( yawn;postponing the matress ) , Hey! I NEVER get to talk to"yous guys"! Sooooooooo, whats your take on Monday?

The confidence in the US Legal and Economic system is US Gold for those who fear financial uncertainty re their assets in this country or denominated in dollars.

Badger: The Swiss Franc hasn't been gold-back for decades -- maybe not even in this entire century. The idea that the Swiss Franc is gold-backed is untrue. The Swiss back 40% of their RESERVES with gold. They do not back their credit or money with gold.

In the US, banks hold about 2% cash as a reserve against their outstanding loans. I imagine it's somewhat similar in Switzerland. Holding gold at 40% of RESERVES is virtually no backing at all. Reducing that backing even further ( as announced last Friday ) makes the Swiss Franc a soft currency, indeed.

Gold backed currencies have indeed been the strongest. Maybe this is Switzerland and Germany's method of weakening their currencies in order to stay competitive? If you sell Gold, your currency is devalued, eh?

http://www.duke.edu/~dhp/index.html Hmmm. FDPMX is still long!

Good WW, Picture yourself a fellow in the year 1912, the Civil War is but a scant 50 years ago, ( perhaps as many view WWII ) ,a new era of peace and prosperity are being enjoyed by many,the great conflict behind us, yourself a citizen of a powerful and prosperous country ( sound familiar? ) . You and your countrymen and women are part of an industrial revolution that is sweeping across the world, ( technology today? ) , and with all the posibilities for problems that every one is guarding against, an obscure assasin pulls the blocks from beneth an enormous stone that rolls across Europe. Blunders and stupidity exaserbate the mounting problems untill all is washed away in the "great war", so a "new" world order can emerge.

Now picture yourself as a young man in the year 1934; the great depression is finally coming to an end and things are looking up. the great American machine is begining to move again......

Is this sounding familiar to you yet?

Sat Oct 25 1997 22:39
Speed ( @old corny one liners ) ID#29082:
Charlie: Conspiracy theories? here? I feel like a mosquito at a nudist colony. I know what to do, but I hardly know where to begin.

December 07 1941: Japanese sneak attack at Pearl Harbor. Was it ??????
John Foster Dulles, later Secretary of State, and his like minded Associates of the American First Committee, were declaring there was no danger of a fascist attack.

**John Foster Dulles, one of the prime architects of the cold war, who made important financial contributions to the Hitler regime, told the Economic Club of New York in 1939:" There is no reason to believe that any of the totalitarian states, either separately or collectively, would attempt to attack the United States. Only hysteria entertains the idea that Germany, Italy or Japan contemplates war against us. . . ."

All during the middle and late thirties Dulles paid extravagant compliments to Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese imperialists. He defended the Nazi seizure of Czechoslovakia on March 19 1939, declaring, " I dislike isolation, but I prefer it to identification with a senseless repetition of the cyclical struggle between the dynamic and static forces of the world. " He considered Nazism "dynamic," and wrote, "We have to welcome and nurture the desire of the new Germany to find for her energies a new outlet"

The Dulles law firm of Cromwell and Sullivan was deeply involved in the financing of Nazi rearmament in preparation for World War II. In 1933, representing New York Banks, he went to Berlin, where one billion dollars of German debt was canceled, providing the Nazis with a new credit for rearmament. In addition the Dulles law firm was instrumental in placing American capital at the service of the German industrialists financing Hitler, chiefly through the Anglo-American banking firm of J. Henry Schroeder & Company. Cromwell and Sullivan drew up the incorporation papers of the pro-Nazi America First Committee, of which Dulles was a member and a contributor. **

Yes, the USofA people wanted to finance Hitler, No, the USofA was not at war with Hitler in 1939 - 1945 WWII, ( USofA 1942 - 1945 ) ( Canada 1939-45 )

Yes, the gold market is being controlled, as are many other activities in our daily lives, no surprise, no conspiracy. The issue, to gain insight, and move before the Monopoly forces ( Central Banks ) . Think like a Banker, Bankers do not want transparency, in theory, it may be stated that transparency must exist, yet, were the rubber hits the road, it can not exist, Transparency will force Banker's, to lose control.

The Citizen can only vote in a democracy via, the purchase or no purchase of goods and services. Well the Bankers have provided credit, to keep the power of the Banker in place. Will it continue, sure, these paper dollars have no meaning. The Banker will cancel debt, were ever it exists. The Banker will not lose control, or power, that is a given, they will do what ever it takes to keep power. The Citizen, could care less about gold, or wealth, or control over their lives. Consider the increase of hours of work, and the Citizen is not concerned, he/she works onward, like a good SOLD'ier should, eh! ( debt, must pay debt, )

Good night all....

I can get nothing past WW's 23:59 so I'll say ganite'n see yaw'll tomorrow!
compliments and regards

Badger gave some stats on gold which stated that there were $460 bil in dollars in circulation and 263 mil oz of gold. If these numbers are accurate then the US govt could match each oz with about $1750. So, if you have $1750, the govt might give you one of their ozs. They will not of course pay you that much for YOUR gold. Why should they if the free market will sell it for much less? We could say that the govt ask price for gold is $1750 and the bid is much less ( ~$307 ) . So you could say that dollars are backed with gold, just not where we would like.

Savings and debt created by our financial system aren't included because they are paid interest and are therefore not money to be reimbursed. The money deposited in savings or purchasing debt to achieve interest goes to someone else who now has the cash. All the saver or debt holder has is a piece of paper which may or may not be exchangeable for money later. The value of that piece of paper may change in price due to the possibility of the interest payment changing or relative to other pieces of paper paying interest. Because an expanding economy requires more liquidity for properly functioning, expanding debt/savings is necessary or deflation will result.

There is not enough US gold to provide this function in our economy unless the feds purchase enough gold to raise the market price to much higher levels, simultaneously removing cash from the economy which forceably reduces debt ( and businesses ) and causes a deflationary situation. If done enough, we get a depression due to lack of liquid cash.

Since the mining industry can produce gold out of the ground somewhere around $310, they could sell at that price until there was no US money in circulation. I think that the economy would die long before that.

WW: You are wrong on many of your arguements. But, you are 100% correct when you state that the reason people own gold is because of the certainty of its return.

When you are in possession of gold, you own money. When you hold a credit-market instrument, you must always evaluate whether the borrower can or will re-pay.

Speed, You speak as if this is a private little club of like minded religous converts, gathered to sail and smoke cigars together whilst sipping Brandy and discussing teh finer points of theological differences. However, what we actually have here is a public forum for dialogue on Gold, PM's and Investments. Neither I nor anyone else needs a "respect" Passport in order to post our thoughts here. The corrolary of course is that when non sensical assertions are made in this public forum, the critical minded will challeneg such claims and rightly so. I hope the same would occur in all venues of public debate in our society. This is not a "safe haven" for Snake Oil Salesmen my friend, whether that bothers your sense of artificial dignity or not. You want a cozy club, join one. You want ideas to be held up to the light of truth, crticism, scrutiny, and debate, this is the right kind of place.

LGB said: "Gold backed currency would never work, It limits our options too much in a world economy and a growing economy. All we'd get with such an "Absolute" currency is an "Absolute" guarantee of a severe depression."

The who - implied in "our" - is an imaginary entity, a phantom such as "national interest". There is no collective good, and aggregate data are thummin and urim used by shamans ( like Galbraith and Samuelson ) to awe the faithful.

"options" is indicative of discretionary monetary authority. The options become increasingly impotent once a positive feedback loop is underway.

"severe depression" - the fate worse than hell! We must make severe depressions illegal! No, it doesn't work that way, never has. Someone perhaps told you bedtime stories [like in graduate level economics courses] wherein the 1920's were some sort of laissez faire era, and forgot the part about the Strong Fed, and the Hoover New Deal, with its unprecedented, discretionary 'scientific' tinkering with money, all geared toward permanent prosperity but instead resulting in an uncontrollable financial asset inflation.

The only stricture that comes from monetary use of gold is on the ability of the political class to borrow and spend. There's plenty of gold until practitioners of the political means feel they need to spend more than they can steal or borrow [generally it relates to sending your sons to kill/die, so as to keep your masters ( and their priestly apologists ) in power and preserve their way of life].

No market process has ever abandoned gold in favor of politicians' promises. It has only come about by force, expressed as legal tender legislation. Consider all that gold sequestered in central banks ( where it is held, apparently to prevent its use as money ) : do you understand how it got there? Did they expropriate it because it was no good?

It is true that a juridical restoration of gold as money would be a grave injustice, and redistribute wealth from debtors to creditors. Fortunately, there isn't any chance of that. 'Sovereigns' who have succeeded in making their debts into legal tender are always the biggest debtors.

Gold will certainly be the preferred form of money. Free people, in defiance of death-prescribing statists will have it. As human productivity advances, prices ( in weight units ) will resume their natural tendency to fall. Gold cash balances gain purchasing power more effectively than interest bearing fiat electrons preserve it.

Faithful citizens, on the other hand, will obey the nostrums of their sound-bite deities even as they legislate that all shall drink purple koolaid and sacrifice themselves for the common good.

It's a simple matter. Elsewhere; everyone is against the yellow, except for most at Kitco.
We have ( or should I say had ) the booming stock market, the foreign investments in dollar denominated instruments ( T-bills, etc. ) , the media blitz against gold, with their ability to make CB selling a major reason for golds fall. The powers have thus far smoothered over all the past explosions with media help and in so doing have kept the general public at "poles" lenght from gold.
I think that all the selling on big down drifts is by the big cats who use the news reports to send gold down and in so doing indoctrinate the public, away from the barbaric relic. They make a bundle while the general public says gold; who wants it.
As for the guys who predict the price, my reasoning is that as gold is going down -per the above reasoning- cause no one is buying it, it is no problem to make a low ball prediction, it may be right.
I have more respect for Steve Peutz who does complete research, even if he is off. Steve caugth me off guard when he started talking about about Moon influences, but his main writings make sense. ( IMHO ) except for his super high gold price predictions and after all the crap he ( we ) have taken, I hope he's right.

Tolerant One: A 100% gold backing requires no tolerance. Audits would be mandatory. Every receipt issued requires one ounce of gold-backing. Sound money backed by government gold-holdings seems far-fetched, now. Gold owned by individuals seems to be more realistic as the basis of a new gold stqandard.

LGB said: "Gold backed currency would never work, It limits our options too much in a world economy and a growing economy. All we'd get with such an "Absolute" currency is an "Absolute" guarantee of a severe depression."

The who - implied in "our" - is an imaginary entity, a phantom such as "national interest". There is no collective good, and aggregate data are thummin and urim used by shamans ( like Galbraith and Samuelson ) to awe the faithful.

"options" is indicative of discretionary monetary authority. The options become increasingly impotent once a positive feedback loop is underway.

"severe depression" - the fate worse than hell! We must make severe depressions illegal! No, it doesn't work that way, never has. Someone perhaps told you bedtime stories [like in graduate level economics courses] wherein the 1920's were some sort of laissez faire era, and censored the part about the Hoover New Deal, with all its discretionary 'scientific' tinkering with money, geared toward permanent prosperity but instead resulting in an uncontrollable financial asset inflation.

The only stricture that comes from monetary use of gold is on the ability of the political class to borrow and spend. There's plenty of gold until practitioners of the political means feel they need to spend more than they can steal or borrow [generally it relates to sending your sons to kill/die, so as to keep your masters ( and their priestly apologists ) in power and preserve their way of life].

No market process has ever abandoned gold in favor of politicians' promises. It has only come about by force, expressed as legal tender legislation. Consider all that gold sequestered in central banks ( where it is held, apparently to prevent its use as money ) : do you understand how it got there? Did they expropriate it because it was no good?

It is true that a juridical restoration of gold as money would be a grave injustice, and redistribute wealth from debtors to creditors. Fortunately, there isn't any chance of that. 'Sovereigns' who have succeeded in making their debts into legal tender are always the biggest debtors.

Gold will certainly be the preferred form of money. Free people, in defiance of death-prescribing statists will have it. As human productivity advances, prices ( in weight units ) will resume their natural tendency to fall. Gold cash balances gain purchasing power more effectively than interest bearing fiat electrons preserve it.

Faithful citizens, on the other hand, will obey the nostrums of their sound-bite deities even as they legislate that all shall drink purple koolade and sacrifice themselves for the common good.

Bart
Million thanks.
The wall of mirrors that occurs at kitco after midnight seems to defeat our "salty" continental American friends. Almost had badger in the playpen. Liked yours earlier badger, so hard to find times and things again.

Nicks anyone about Nicks Dad, something from your notebooks to inspire this salty one? Steve, great links thanks, Auric the bard in your veins too!!, *Dont run away, I havent finished with you.... * Colleen, sounds like youve had a great welcome to the site. RTF astounding. And look so many lurkers taking the mike, and others not heard from for a while...

Detente LGB & RJ?

Detente ?

so much detente while the world goes crazy. something odd at kitco.

And here in the ring of fire, the phoenix may yet stir



Go Guhh

Uhhhlllld

A former Treasury official ( forgot who ) was talking about just this point on Friday afternoon on CNBC. He claims that despite all the regional currencies in circulation ( the currencies of nation-states ) soon to be sacrificed in the name of global government, we ALREADY HAVE A GLOBAL CURRENCY!! He didn't say what it was ( implied it was the US DOLLAR ) . But if it is the US DOLLAR, and if all currencies currently pegged to the US DOLLAR are devalued through currency speculation, then it will not be long before the US DOLLAR itself will need to be revalued ( read DEVALUED ) , lest the US EConomy become too uncompetitive and collapse from imported overseas deflation, the trade deficit with lower cost producing countries soar, and the debt bubble in the US immplode! I believe that the current market turmoil is the direct result of a too strong US Dollar relative to the currencies of other less prosperous, less productive, less efficient nation states, and will result ultimately in the collapse of ALL DOLLAR BASED ASSETS! The end result will be a SINGLE GLOBAL CURRENCY BACKED BY GOLD, OIL, and THE MILITARY MIGHT OF THE US.

Re:ANOTHER I agree that in this environment the ONLY SAFE INVESTMENT IN THE LONG TERM IS GOLD ITSELF! NOT PAPER GOLD! BUT THE REAL STUFF PAID FOR AND KEPT IN ONE'S PERSONAL POSSESSION! ON THIS POINT ANOTHER IS RIGHT ON!! ALL PAPER WILL BE DESTROYED BY THE DEFLATIONARY WAVE NOW UNLEASHED!
NO RESUE ATTEMPT TO SAVE THE SYSTEM WILL WORK NOW EXCEPT A RETURN TO A SYSTEM BACKED BY GOLD AND MILITARY MIGHT! SELL YOUR STOCKS AND BONDS NOW AND BUY GOLD AS ANOTHER WARNS OR RISK THE COLLAPSE IN VALUE OF EVERYTHING YOU NOW THINK YOU OWN!

HERR LARRYN!! What Larry Kudlow referred to today on CNBC is PRECISELY WHAT IS NOW GOING TO OCCUR IN THE NOT TO DISTANT FUTURE!! For the first time in this bullish cycle which began in the early 80's we are going to witness the dreaded INVERTED YIELD CURVE where short term yields are HIGHER than long term yield on govt. paper! THIS, of course means RECESSION/DEPRESSION which means loss of tax revenues, soaring govt. deficits, a falling bond and stock market and a vicious FLIGHT TO QUALITY ( read GOLD!! ) because everything else will be DEVALUED!

Gold hits lowest level in 12 years

Asian currency crisis also drags down other metals

Saturday, October 25, 1997
By Allan Robinson
Mining Reporter

Southeast Asia's currency crisis pushed down the price of gold yesterday to its lowest level since late 1985, a ripple effect with
worrisome implications for Canada's mining industry.

The precious metal's price plunged $15.70 ( U.S. ) an ounce to $307.30. Almost all of the gold producers in North America
would lose money if they had to sell their output at that price, analysts say.

And the economic problems in Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand also appear to be affecting other base
metal markets. The price of nickel on the London Metal Exchange has dropped to $2.77 a pound from $2.90 just three days
ago. Copper also has been weak at 93 cents a pound, well below the $1 a pound mining companies and analysts like to use for
long-term planning and forecasts.

"We're all learning about what globalization means," said John Ing, president of Toronto investment dealer Maison Placements
Inc. "The stock markets are so interrelated today."

"It is making life extremely difficult for all mining companies," said John Lydall, a mining analyst for First Marathon Securities
Ltd. "You must not just focus on the price of gold."

Neither Inco Ltd. nor Falconbridge Ltd. , two of the world's largest nickel producers and both based in Toronto, would be
making money if they were selling nickel at these prices in combination with the low price of copper, Mr. Lydall said. The price
of nickel has not traded at these levels in three years.

For now, some gold producers are still getting higher prices because of their hedging activities, in which they sold forward their
production. Base metal miners are also temporarily avoiding the lower prices because they sell their product under long-term
contracts.

The fall in currency values against the U.S. dollar in the Far East will make gold more expensive there and could reduce jewelry
demand in this major market. The currencies of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia have recently fallen between 25 per cent and
36 per cent against the U.S. dollar. The higher interest rates in those countries could also make investing in interest-bearing
securities more profitable than holding gold.

Gold was supposed to be the last refuge from currency and interest rate turmoil, but in recent years it hasn't worked out that
way, Mr. Ing said.

There is a "whirlpool of events" and North American shores are just beginning to feel the effects, he said.

Yesterday, the Toronto Stock Exchange's gold and precious metals index fell 8.4 per cent or 739.84 points to 8,047.76. The
shares of Toronto's Barrick Gold Corp. fell $2.35 ( Canadian ) a share to $30.45 and the shares of Vancouver's Placer
Dome Inc. fell $2.80 to $23.40.

However, there is continuing debate about whether the currency problems will spill over into the industrial sectors because the
lower value of the currencies in Southeast Asia should help exports, said Manford Mallory, a mining analyst with Research
Capital Corp.

Also, there has been little impact on South Korea, a major stainless steel producer, and on India, a major metal consumer.
China has also been unaffected, he said.

According to Bloomberg News, an economic slowdown in Japan and Southeast Asia will reduce the demand for copper
because of lower consumer demand and a slowdown in construction as projects are cancelled.

Meanwhile, gold traders continue to be nervous about central bank selling. The markets yesterday were badly shaken with
reports that a government panel in Switzerland had recommended that as much as 1,400 tonnes of gold could be sold, which is
about half of its reserves.

"While there's no date for Switzerland to sell 1,400 [tonnes] of gold or for when it leaves the gold standard, it's refocused the
whole issue of central banks' gold sales," William O'Neill, director of commodity research at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New
York told Bloomberg. "Even if the Swiss don't sell gold until 1999, in the course of the next two years, there's a fear that we'll
see other European central banks stepping up their gold sales."

The Swiss National Bank's gold reserves have by law been valued at 4,595 francs per kilogram -- about $118 an ounce -- for
decades, Bloomberg said.

Switzerland is the last developed country to insist on a gold backing for its currency. On Nov. 1, the extent of the backing will
be reduced to 25 per cent from 40 per cent.






We welcome your comments.

Golden Cheese Head: I think that a global currency would mark the begining of the 1000 Year Wars. Nations have pride and I feel sure that none want control of a World Central Bank. When established cultures are impinged upon by a central authority, all hell will break loose.

HERR JACK! I agree! That's where military might comes into play! Such a currency will only come about by FORCE and by NECESSITY! ( Read competitive global currency devaluations leading to global recession/depression and war!

HERR LARRYN! Meant Jimmy Rogers not Lrry Kudlow! Sorry for the mispost!

LGB 23:21 - Please expand on "real tanglibles such as our GNP,
productivity, etc." What does real tanglible such as productivity
mean?

If you would like to call me "your bitch" to my face - just quit
hiding behind LGB and send me an email.

DJ - Somehow missed your 10/24/97 22:57 post. Caught it a few hours ago at a friends house. Just wanted to thank you for the reply. Will be anxiously awaiting your chart.

Away to the cave to lurk and learn.

With everyone feeling so dejected, the tide is ready to turn and all the bullshit pumped into the bay will be drained and replaced by the clear waters of the tsunami. Head for the hills, the media shovel has broke. Excuse me ELDO for using your tsunami term.

Thanks EB.

DONALD,
GOOD DAY!
long rest eh?18 more hours,the war will frame up again?try this : http://intv.mediacity.com.sg/cgi-dos/apf.exe?210
continue to check some chinese papers from hong kong and taiwan....

DONALD,
NEWS FROM ECONOMIST,read the last paragraph: http://intv.mediacity.com.sg/cgi-dos/apf.exe?210..ereee?

here: http://www.economist.com
look for hong kong news.....

You miss the point re Gold backed currency Imp. I don't back the Govts. policy in order to be a faithful mindless clone. I back it because it has worked far better than Gold backed currency did at bringing the greatest prosperity to the greatest number. There's nothing inherently "noble" or "moral" about backing currency with Gold. In fact, a case for the opposite could quite easily be made.

Personally, I greatly dislike debt and living on borrowed money. However, tell me how many families could own a home without a mortgage? Even a car for many? Debt is a necessary evil. If all you Gold bug fanatic Gold linked currency let's not have any debt folks had your way, we'd all be living back in the Paleozic era.

Get real and get realiztic. Currency is simply a tool to exchange your hours of labor for goods and services. The more effecient and flexible that tool is, the more all will propsper. You can't eat Gold, drive it, live inside it, heat your house with it, or make computers out if it. It's a pretty metal that makes nice jewelry and coins and has a history of intrinsic worth. No more, no less. There's nothing "moral" about the damn stuff.

On the International Trade scene productivity is effected by exchange rates, not productivity.
Be the dollar strong or weak, we are always in a trade deficit.
But the government says that our productivity is up. Anyone understand why?

Badger
I see Monday as the beginning wave down into the abyss.
So many charts - stocks & indices, are screaming failure at the moment.
Momentum and ocsillating indicators are saying higher volatility and downward moves in prices.
The very move by gold on Friday points to the level of concern by the powers who are. They are pushed to the max at the moment, to support their $$$'s.

I can now see why gold had to go lower at this precise point in time and wonder why I was blinded earlier.
I am stocked to the max with puts on our OZ market, because I see what is coming for this stuff. All my indicators have been churning out signals, that this retacement move up was to be a failure.
I originally thought that gold would react positively to equities tanking, without realising that it had to go down hard, as the powers had to go into rescue mode.
Seeing the breadth of their fear ( -$15 gold ) I get the feeling that they are excessively nervous, and would expect that if equities fall very hard Monday, that gold would be pushed down even harder, to where even fear will not bring out the buyers.
Once equities have tanked and $$$'s safe, gold will be allowed to rise from the dust.
Be it that stocks tank bigtime this week, I would expect one or two really bad bits of news to come out for gold to send it plummeting.
If this is the case I will be accumalating leveraged gold positions as I unwind & take profits on my equity put positions.

I have a feeling that this downdraft is going to be far greater than 87, more similar to 29, due to leverage, derivatives and debt.

I am very concerned about property prices, currently being leveraged into this sector. After 87 crash, our real estate markets went into a boom mode for 18 months, as investors shifted their assets to real assets. This time round I don't see this as an eventuality. Already Asian investors who leveraged into Sydney and Melbourne property markets are having to liquidate to cover leveraged losses. This will lead to a selling wave as people will try to lock in recent profits in this sector.
I have just sold one of my rental properties last month, and will be hot to trot to sell others as well as my own home, this being the lynchpin of my investments.
The main reasons for this is to reduce my debt to zero and to lock in my profits.
If, due to debt and leveraging, being excessive, there is little transfer of money to real estate, then I think future events will have to mirror 29 rather than an 87 style crash, where we recovered so quickly, that a year later most had forgotten the occurance even happened.
My gut feeling is that in a years time, most investors will remember 97, all to clearly and painfully.
The potential carnage due to be inflicted upon retirement funds ( superannuation ) shortly will be remembered for generations to come.

Putting it bluntly - We have sold out the farm, and they are now coming to take it away.
I have many friends in Cairns, who though not into shares, have hugely leveraged positions within their businesses. They will not come out of this financial explosion lightly. I have tried to warn them but they only see that the profits at the end of the week are good and interest rates are low. Life doesn't get better than this.
The masses of humanity tend to have little foresight and as for hindsight, well they will always turn to someone else to blame.

This article from 'Weekend Australian' aludes to massive losses sustained already by very wealthy people, who 'should' be in the know.
They must be getting a little 'hot' under the collar.
Also to the turning in real estate prices which normally follows the share markets with a lag time measured in years not days.
8% to 10% losses in real estate in a couple of weeks even before the global markets have started to come down, speaks volumes about what is about to happen.

Shakeout Gives Tycoons a Licking

Hong Kong tycoons yesterday licked their financial wounds after taking a hammering in the territory's share market crash.

But even ordinary families have suffered immediate losses, with property prices already being cut and many people fearing for their jobs.

The market meltdown forced tycoon Li Ka-shing out of the list of the world's richest men, according to the South China Morning Post.

It said the Cayman Islands registered trust that holds Mr Li's Cheung Kong Holdings lost $HK6 billion ( $1.09 billion ) in Thursday's crash.

Walter Thomas and Raymond Kwok, the brothers who control development giant Sun Hung Kai Properties were said to have lost $HK7.6 billion off their share values.

Lee Shau-kee, head of Henderson Land and according to Forbes magazine Hong Kong's richest man, saw $HK4.6 billion wiped off his worth, the report said.

In July Forbes named Mr Lee as the world's ninth richest man, but the Post said his net worth had fallen by more than half to $US6.02 billion ( $8.53 billion ) and he was now only 35th richest in the world.

Another badly hurt victim was Peter Woo and his family, who control the diversified Wharf group..

Across the territory, nervous investors crowded around television screens in banks and brokerages watching their investments disappear.

A lot more ordinary people have shares in Hong Kong than in other major economies, but for many more it is part of the territory's renowned gambling instinct.

It's a normal result in any game, said retired businessman Wong Sik, 70, who lost $HK300,000 when the local bourse plunged 10.4 per cent on Thursday.

I was not upset al all. There are times you win and moments you suffer. This time I lost.

Many people have started changing back accounts from Hong Kong to US dollars, fearing the local currency's peg to the greenback could be cut.

I would advise against it said one Hong Kong Bank customer adviser in the Wanchai district. Because you will lose money changing out of the local currency.

If the peg goes and the Hong Kong dollar loses 15 per cent in one day, it will be worth paying extra to have the safety of the US dollar now, said one Scottish resident of Hong Kong, who switched over as soon as news of the crash reverberated around the city.

But the property sector, the cornerstone of Hong Kong's economy, felt an immediate squeeze as banks put up interest rates by 0.75 of a percentage point.

With apartment prices among the highest in the world, any risk of a price collapse worries the 6.5 million population. And real estate agents said potential buyers were already pulling out of deals.

They predicted prices could fall 10 per cent on average and the number of transactions could fall 30 per cent in the near term.

One agent said he had noticed asking prices for apartments in popular estates fall by between 3 and 5 per cent this week, but added there was no panic selling.

Raymond Tse, chairman of the Hong Kong Real Estate Agencies Association, said property prices could fall by 5 to 6 per cent by the end of next week if share prices kept falling.


This Tsunami feels like it is not going to be 100' high but 400' high.
One of those monster waves that appear every 300-400 years.
Many and much will not be the same after it has enleashed its awesome destuction.
The shockwave ripples felt globaly herald this occasion but how many of us have moved to secure what is ours and secured our families comforts.

The Cherrokee's, Puetz's, Another's and others of this ilk, myself incuded, are not calling this to happen, but 'see' the signs all about, and feel the proximity of this event.

The raw emotion that will be brought out when this wave breaks, will be to much for many to handle - irrational and insane.

I 'see' this Tsunami like Cherrokee, and feel its arival this week.

One will have to be positioned to take advantage of its arrival.
Or stand in front of it and be swept aside.

Standing on a hill with a foxhill behind me, a double-barreled shotgun in my arms, and lots of cash in my pockets ready to defend my position.

PS. I already have withdrawn emergency cash out of my bank and will sleep well if the banks get into trouble.

Who else has raided their bank to line their pockets for this occassion.
How many banks collapsed in '29?????

I lifted these from siliconInvestor bb. The first is why I questioned the swiss gold bullion sale size. The second is interesting because it might cause some BIG TROUBLE with Japan. TO
tired now got to turn in. Goodnight all.


To: webpilot ( 2430 )
From: Alex
Friday, Oct 24 1997 7:08PM EST
Reply #2431 of 2480

It just keeps getting more interesting all the time............

Bloomberg News in Bern, Switzerland:

By Theresa Waldrop and Reto Gregori Bern: A Swiss government panel said the
nation's central bank should sell more than half of
its gold reserves -- 1,400 tons -- driving gold prices to 12-year lows. The panel said
Switzerland no longer needs to back its currency
with gold reserves, the world's fifth largest. Gold fell 5 percent to $308.60 an ounce in
New York, the lowest since March 1985. The
1,400 tons is equal to about 40 percent of annual global demand. The recommendation
comes as the world's central banks shed
reserves of the precious metal in favor of better returns in bonds. Australia said in July
it sold two-thirds of its gold, following earlier
sales by the Netherlands and Belgium. ''This is another nail in the coffin in the idea that
gold is a key monetary asset for central
banks,'' said Kamal Naqvi, a precious metals analyst at Macquarie Equities Ltd. in
London. While the Swiss government rejected the
recommendation, that did little to calm investor concerns. The government said it will
sell only about 400 of its 2,590 tons in gold, as
it planned earlier, and that the sales probably will occur over the course of a decade
after the year 2000. Published 15:07

To: William Jepsen ( 2452 )
From: Alex
Saturday, Oct 25 1997 12:30PM EST
Reply #2458 of 2480

Hi William: Don't really follow the guy, just sounded anti - Goldilocks to me. Well it
looks like that big Japan\U.S. trade dispute isn't settled after all.............

Copyright c 1997 Nando.net
Copyright c 1997 Reuters

WASHINGTON ( October 25, 1997 08:22 a.m. EDT http://www.nando.net ) - The
Federal Maritime Commission was unable to reach a
compromise with Japanese shipping firms in a marathon meeting it had hoped would
settle a bitter dispute over port practices, officials
said early Saturday.

The failure to reach an agreement was a surprise. Just hours earlier commissioners had
said they were very close to a final deal.

"There is no resolution," commission chairman Harold Creel told reporters after a
nearly 10-hour closed door session. "There are still a number of issues to be resolved."

To: +William H Hueb ( 7295 )
From: +Alex
Saturday, Oct 25 1997 5:02PM EST
Reply #7374 of 7436

Hi William: Trader's Committments from Kaplans site.............

As of October 21, 1997, released at 3:30 p.m. on October 24, 1997, the
commitments for COMEX gold futures show commercial insiders long 102,442, short
87,675; speculators long 13,909, short 43,706. The average historic ratio for
commercials is 2:3 long to short; for speculators, 2:1 long to short. Therefore,
commercials are substantially more long than usual, and speculators are substantially
more short, especially when combined with open interest data released since then,
which does not even include Friday's hectic activity. These values became significantly
more bullish over the past 2-1/2 weeks, and are now STRONGLY BULLISH

For Monsieur RJ-

Zee Wizarrds of zee Pyranees welcome your return as
zey have zee respect for your visions of zee future. Do
not be sensiTIVE to zee beeg mouthes of zee peeSANTS who
sometimes make zee noises.
Remembair zee English axe or zee French sword can
fix zem up queeck by dam.
Zee Wizards say zey sink we arre in a "wave 5 down".
Ah don know what zey mean by zees but eet sounds bad.
Eet eez ma believeness zat zey refer to zee "Dreaded
waves of Monsieur Elliot" in zaire Magick.

ALL - RJ & LGB in particular: See what a big drop in gold will precipitate? "LGB and RJ Bury The Hatchet! - Details at 11". I couldn't believe it. In all seriousness, I must say that it warms the cockles of my heart to have just finished reading your reconciliation. If you recall, I was among the first to defend both of you when your respective arrivals at this site got a number of people riled up, and ( if I may be permitted to bow my own strings for a moment ) I predicted that all the bluster and egotism would ultimately be tempered by the well-intentioned and gentlemanly tenor of discussion that exists here at Kitco. Kudos to you both for your courage, and kudos to us all for sticking with these two "China Shop Bulls" ( :- ) ) over the long haul. As we all must now acknowlege, they have much to offer. ( Ah! If only my assesment of the metals market was half as good as my assesment of human nature. ) BTW, having met RJ personally, I can attest to the truth of his contetion that he isn't at all like what his writing might lead one to expect.
As for myself, my lingering attatchment to a short gold position came in handy against the drop in my long silver positons. ( Wish I still had the two lots of short gold I divested myself of a few weeks ago when gold was looking a lot stronger! ) Be that as it may, silver still looks good to me and, according to my charts, it just fell to the preexisting upward trend line. ( What do I know? ) As to gold, I think that it clearly looks like manipulation to have it drop like it did on non-news ( Swiss selling MAYBE in two years, indeed! ) More likely that was the cover story for the U.S. under the asupice of AG in pressuring the metals market down to try to shore up the falling stock market. ( Didn't work too well, did it? ) Anyway, we'll know more about this on Monday, or even later tonight when Asia opens.
Speaking of Asia, I think we just experienced the first shot fired by China in our direction. IMHO China is no where near as dumb, financially, as some would like to think and they are only just starting to show off what they can do. Despite analysis to the contrary, I think they'd like nothing better than to tank the global economies and then come out on top with the biggest hard asset pile ( gold ) when the dust clears. ( Who's buying from the CB's? Huh? ) I said a long time ago ( to much contrary opinion among friends and colleagues ) that the handover of Hong Kong was a terrible economic and human tragedy. The Communists are evil scum! Always have been and always will be. The premise of Communism appears noble on the surface but can lead to nothing but coersion, misery, enslavement, and death. The Chineese Communists have absolutely no regard for human life. They only look at the means to the end and on top of it are VERRRRY patient. 100 years to them is not a long time, so they sit back and quitely buy up all the assets they can while they wait for the naieve West to hand Hong Kong back. "What a bunch of saps those Western heathen capatalists are!", they are saying to themselves right now. People argued with me that the Chineese need Hong Kong economically. BS! They hate Hong Kong and everything it stands for. The idea that China would keep Hong Kong going as a beacon of human freedom and market laissez-faire to the rest of the world while under their governance is so absurd as to be laughable if it weren't so tragic. It would be the equivalent of the U.S. taking over Cuba and then maintaining it as a Communist outpost. Truly, I don't comprehend how people can delude themselves into thinking otherwise. But, people don't seem to be able to learn, do they? ( Remember about 50 years ago? "Let's just give Hitler Czeckoslovakia - THEN he'll be happy and we'll avoid a war..." Sheesh! It's mind-boggling!. )
Which, in a weird way, brings me back full-circle to RJ and LGB... Despite all the bad stuff that I believe China is hatching up for us in the West, if two dyed-in-the-wool combatants like LGB and RJ can reconcile their differences, perhaps there is still cause for hope!
I'm off now for the night and will return tomorrow night. Happy change-back to Standard Time!

Anyone else heard of BOC selling - 2nd time I've seen it quoted

Avid chatter
you were right on with your idea on boc selling gold. saved a few beans there on hedging of long positions. likewise your thoughts on relative competitiveness of the us and asian economies. how many of these hong kong crashes have we been through in the past 25 years????? plus as you say the astro is ok too.

.Do you like how they said it was the swiss selling ...What a load of crap.....If the swiss sell anymore gold they are in a position where the currency could be stripped of it's value....every major play knows this ....and yet the media just blame the swiss for the gold plunge.....But then we should give credit to the chinese for not using there brokers and using others......By blaming others they don't stir up panic in there own back yard.....beautiful

So the move over from metals to paper is on and yet the metals don't even what to be looked at by the investment communite......Have the gold firms miners and producers screwed themselves by producing so much gold for the world markets all these years.........Looking at the astro for next year on gold and It does look pretty gold .....Some restriction will be put in place....My guess is on the amount of gold every country can produce and sell.....There will be some huge problems with this as some will want to produce more than others.....But it is the only way gold can recover and yet the industries recover too.......I don't know the cost to produce gold in the states or canada but here in Australia it is very close to par at the moment with the price know.....last I checked was 302.20......

prediction both. first we will taste deflation. This time frame could be swift. US dollar will be king, bonds will be beautiful. Stocks collapse, gold collapse ... the dollar King. Politicians panic and inflation begins gold and silver will start a move that will carry them to the moon. I believe we will see gold under 180. Oldman thinks 250 will hold it. I certainly do respect his opinions. What ever the bottom is it will not last long. and in a few years with gold at 2000= what difference will it make wheather the low was 180 or 250. Just do not start highly leveraged positions too early.

HK market: China rules out bailout.
http://intv.mediacity.com.sg/cgi-dos/apf.exe?210
China has ruled out any intervention to bolster Hong Kong's plummeting bourse or its currency, which analysts say faces increasing pressure to devalue. "The Hong Kong stock market experiences ups and downs as a result of widely varied influences...the administration will not interfere with operations," a Foreign Ministry spokesman said. China's policy of keeping Hong Kong's capitalist system separate from its own remained unchanged, he said. Beijing will not muster its massive foreign reserves to support the Hong Kong dollar, the spokesman added.

Amid Asian Turmoil, China is Safe Haven -- for Now.
http://www.insidechina.com/china/news/03.html
On Friday, a central bank official said Beijing would come to Hong Kong's aid, if asked.

Hong Kong Stocks Rally After Black Thursday Crash
http://www.insidechina.com/china/news/01.html
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index stormed to a higher close on Friday, lifted by companies buying back their own shares, but brokers said uncertainty over the future of the currency will still overhang the market.

MAS won't intervene in forex market
http://intv.mediacity.com.sg/cgi-dos/apf.exe?205
The Monetary Authority of Singapore ( MAS ) will let market forces determine the value of the Singapore dollar. Finance Minister Richard Hu said this after launching the Interim Upgrading Programme in Hong Lim Complex at Upper Cross Street. He said MAS would only intervene to prevent large fluctuations in the Sing dollar and not push against the market trend. Dr Hu felt the Sing dollar is stable now against its basket of currencies.

World Bank, IMF defend HK policy
http://intv.mediacity.com.sg/cgi-dos/apf.exe?208
International financial bodies have defended Hong Kong, after the stock market meltdown on Thursday.
Both the IMF and the World Bank stressed the strength of the Hong Kong economy and its "sophisticated" ability to fight off speculative attacks on the Hong Kong currency.
A World Bank senior adviser said there was no reason for Hong Kong to abandon its currency peg to the US unit and backs Hong Kong dollars in circulation with large official reserves.
Hong Kong says it has US$88 billion of reserves.

Officials Vow to Take on Speculators
http://www.insidechina.com/china/news/10.html
"We have lots of money. Joseph ( HKMA chief Yam ) is sitting on more than $88 billion," Tsang said. "He'll push the button, he'll use it ( if ) it's needed."
"I have absolute all authority to spend all of it if I need to. But I think even a little bit of it will send a lot of people away," Tsang said.

Morning All! {; }

There have been SUCH good posts this week-end. Glad I had time to look.

Thank you all, and 'specially Donald & Nick @A- so many GREAT links!- Thank you!; 6pak; Badger-your22:16; Stradmaster; LGB & RJ; EB; Larryn; tolerant1; implacable-have I seen you before?; MoreGold; A Goose; Major; Another; Steve Puetz; and more. Your posts are enjoyed and appreciated!

Hello JIN: How are things going? Think of you often, and hope you're alright.

Mike Sheller is a gentleman of the highest order. Read on past the metaphysical if you wish, to find his great wisdom and knowledge.

BART: Your Therapy group could do with a bit of lightness for the day ahead. Have you figured out these Anagrams yet?

President Boris Yeltsin:= endless insobriety trip'

Tipsiness done terribly"

Fidel Castro:= docile farts

Ronald Wilson Reagan:= A long insane War-lord

President William Clinton:= Nice limp wild total sinner

Mister Newton Leroy Gringrich:= Screwing the minority longer

MODERN TIMES= Dire Moments

[Specially for S. Puetz]= Astronomers= Moon Starers

The Meaning of Life= The fine game of NIL

HEPCAT AT KITCO.COM= Pathetic mock coat

I'm OK to accept chat

Enjoy your day, All. Like Aurator, I'm off into the garden.

GOOD LUCK for next week!

JTF: I LOVE your posts- didn't leave you out on purpose- just that I'd 'spoken' to you so recently. Sorry- No offence? { : }
C

STRAD MASTER: Your thots on China are right on my friend. Re the Swiss Scare did you see in LA Times the info by Rhona O'Connell of T. Hoare & Co. that "the US and IMF sold 1,175 tons of gold over a three-year period in the late 1970's without distrupting a gold bullion market that was about half the size it is now." And I will be surprised if the Swiss people vote for the gold sale! At to what is happening in SE Asia re gold that remains to be seen. The CB manipulation theory may well explain what happened last Friday.

HI COLEEN,
Have to rest now,,its 18.30 p.m here....!Retail/wholesale really terrible!cos the crisis not over yet...!some news to digest..
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971025/business/stories/stocks_3.html
ANY IDEA?
BYE.....MORNING TO U AND EVENING TO MYSELF....!

Nick regarding your interesting comments, I certainly would have to agree
Paper presented by Giles Keating of C.S. First Boston ( London ) .

Global Outlook

Underlying Theme : - Deflation
- Excess Capacity

Major Points as Follows :-

 Inflation held back in the U.S. by increasing integration in a deflationary world.

 Bonds Steady - little or no tightening from the Federal Reserve.

 Commodities - Sideways.

 Global economic expansion/recovery is still very fragile.

 World Wide Fiscal Policy is at it's Tightest recorded rate.

 Liquidity conditions neither tight or excessively easy compare to the end of 1993 looseness.

 Italy and France are at the edge of recession ending 1996 and have been held up by the strength of the U.S. Dollar.

 Japans fiscal tightening is excessive . Nikkie weakness is a risk which could further damage growth.

 Emerging Nations will have a limited rebound.

 The world has and is having a fast growth in Labour capacity.

 Overall world capacity is expanding rapidly.

Underlying theme of deflation and excessive capacity at a global.


 Fiscal retrenchment both long and short term is continuing on a global level with governments reducing public spending.

 Europe especially even allowing for accounting tricks are experiencing traumatic fiscal tightening.

 A deep fiscal squeeze is occurring in Japan with the income and consumption tax hikes. Japanese government reduction in spending is also occurring.


 In the U.S. the political mode is leading to the prospect of a balanced budget,
 ( Fiscal Tightening will at some point occur ) .

 As government borrowing's contract the Private sector is crowded in. With real short term rates falling and long rate steady or declining ?.

 External deficit a possible restraint on robust demand.

U.S. economy is increasing connected to the global economy via higher imports and also via the willingness to shift capacity aboard. This has help restrict both price and wage inflation. Despite full capacity use and low unemployment. This structural effect was magnified by the cyclical impact of global spare capacity. The strength in the U.S. economy helped support other lack lustre economies.

The adverse effect is the U.S. Current Account which has been deteriorating ( 3rd Quarter at 2.4% of GDP ) and runs the risk of widening further before it affects the U.S. dollars strength and fuels inflation in the U.S. This would have the effect of suppressing growth elsewhere.

Global trade has expanded at a faster pace than the U.S. economy hence the growth in the value of the U.S. dollar as a trading reserve.


 The prospect is one of a growing U.S. terms of trade deterioration.

 Japans renewed growth in its trading surplus.

 A growing U.S. deficit has helped mask the global excess of supply over demand but cannot continue to do so indefinitely.

 Net Exports to deteriorate.

 Leading to a possible sizeable correction in the Risky Assets of the U.S. Equities and Emerging Markets Debts.

 A healthy correction is needed to stop the Fed from tightening.

Morning, Nick.

Rushed in from the garden to post this.

Are you serious about Banks? - Harking back to the events of 1929? Gee, that really scares me, as I've just sold a small ppty, and have the proceeds sitting in a current account.

Do you think I should take it out in cash? I must confess that when I read [one of your links, I think] about the 1929 fiasco, there was a feeling of uneasiness, but surely not so SOON??

My trip to Cape Town on Wednesday will take me out of the picture till Friday- so perhaps I should jump into action in this regard tomorrow?

Thanks.

Strad Master: The idea that China would keep Hong Kong going as a beacon of human
freedom and market laissez-faire to the rest of the world while under their governance
is so absurd as to be laughable if it weren't so tragic. It would be the equivalent of the
U.S. taking over Cuba and then maintaining it as a Communist outpost.

That was a wonderful insight. As to the Fed and gold. I do think that they have a range of $300 to $350 for gold that they can be happy with and strive to maintain. Every day that currency and stock markets decline their ability to meet those targets becomes more difficult to do.

Good morning! It's great to see discussion again! I think most of the time we have a great site. Our compatriots from outside the US are the most consistent in this manner. And RJ and LGB are reconciled.
Colleen: You don't have to worry about forgetting about me -- all that matters to me is that everyone gets the most benefit from the posts.
All: I have the Aug/Sep 1997 ( Issue#1 ) - "Gold in the Official Sector" in front of me -- Put out by the World Gold Council -- a pro-gold organization, but more restrained than our most determined gold bugs, and a reliable information source as far as I can tell! This new newsletter focuses on news of official gold sales, and has more on the LBMA that anything I have seen so far. The following is the LBMA synopsis.
As we know, the LBMA is "lifting the veil" of secrecy, as Peter Smith of Morgan Guaranty puts it. "Gold products, consisting of spot transactions, forwards and options - from the ( then ) 14 market making members of the LBMA, the Bank of England Survey showed a daily trading volume of around 7 million ounces in May 1996. But that understates the total activity in the London Market".... now "London is home to another significant amount of business conducted outside the UK but on a 'Loco London' basis".
The article then goes on to say over the last year, typical daily trading volume in gold is now 30 million ounces/day with a value of $11 billion in something over 1000 separate contracts. The LBMA claims that even these figures are an underestimate of the actual volume of the business.
The 8 primary banks in the LBMA are given as: CSFB, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, Midland Bank, Morgan Guaranty, Republic-National Bank of New York, NM Rothschild, Standard Chartered - The Mocatta Group, and UBS.
In another adjacent article, the regulation of the LBMA is discussed. The LBMA is governed by the London Code of Conduct. According to Chris Elston, the LBMA's chief executive, the London Code of Conduct "Codified a regime of largely self-regulation". This is essentially what Aurator said in one of his posts in the last month: read "self-regulation" as "essentially unregulated".
"The new Labor government of the UK is switching supervisory authority over banks and wholesale markets from the Bank of England to an expanded Securities and Investments board. This has not yet happened, however, although Howard Davies, the former deputy governor of the Bank, has now taken over the SIB chairmanship". I suspect that if the powers that be try to control the LBMA, it will just move elsewhere. Is this why there is now alot of gold trading in Istanbul?
There is one other item of much interest to our site, as we have learned from several sources that large quantities of gold have been "sold" to keep the price of gold down. According to this newsletter, these "sales" are mostly "market deposits", and less commonly "swaps". The sum total of "deposits" and "swaps" were at 2,440 tonnes at end-1995 to about 2,750 tonnes at end-1996, with rather more than 2/3 coming from developing countries. This is quite a bit less than the 6,000 tonnes we are hearing about now. If it is, somebody has been very busy! Do you need to go from 2,000 tonnes to 6,000 tonnes of gold on the market to push gold down from approx $360/oz to $320/oz? If so, it will be hard to push gold down much further. Does anyone at Kitco know what "gold deposits" and "gold swaps" are?
This will keep everybody busy for a while. I tried to post the PDF file from the World Gold Council for all of you to read, but locked up on the upload site. Will try again later!

Good Midday, JTF!

It really does matter, JTF- you contribute so much to this site and I need to acknowledge that. Your views are well thought out,and have helped me so much in the last three weeks.

I agree that the most important issue here is that everyone gets the most benefits from the post.

Perhaps Hepcat will re-channel his energies through his second Anagram {:-}}

Here's a thought: The eyes are not responsible when the mind does the seeing. -Publilius Syrus

You are all pretty special.

Donald: What is your take on mainland China saying that they would not back up the HK dollar? This I find odd -- unless they don't care. I vaguely remember reading that the attackers of the HK dollar had $1trillion of so available in reserve. I find this hard to believe, but if this is so the fur will really be flying!

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Saw your earlier posts. I too was fooled into thinking gold would go up, and not down with the market turmoil. We had been talking on this site about A Greenspan's background -- his Ayn Rand days, and his interest in going back to the gold standard. But I --- just as you forgot to think like a gold bug in charge of the Fed. What do you do when the market tanks? Sell gold like crazy! Then anyone thinking of a "flight to safety" to gold will have to go elsewhere with their assets! Good thing I didn't bet the farm, or my significant other would have been after my hide!
My take on all of this commotion is that AG will not be able to raise rates -- at least for now. Too risky! As for gold -- I don't think he can let it go up. But I think he does know that the longer he keeps it down the more likely it will esxplode up. The only wild card as I see it is whether if he keeps gold down until commodity prices collapse. I doubt he will do this, because he will do his best to keep commodity prices steady. He fears deflation more than even a rising gold price. But -- no matter what -- he will protect the dollar first, and the market second. If the dollar crashes, the market will go anyway.
Hope all is well ---

Colleen: Thanks for the nice post!
All: I'll check back in the afternoon ( for me ) -- 5 or 6 hours from now.

news from reuter read: http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971025/business/stories/stocks_3.html
...12 hours to go..

JTF: We both having ladies in the family from Shanghai, this may be interesting to you. Over a year ago, on a visit home, my lad expressed that China would in no uncertain terms make Shanghai the financial centerpiece of Asia, and certainly the PRC. While I agreed with him from an historical and "national pride" standpoint, as a naive westerner, I thought HK would be retained, in some manner, as the compliant and productive milk-cow of moola. It seems now that it will get no special treatment from the Chinese. The game may be up. The analogy one incisive Kitcoite made likening HK to Cuba ( would the US, after "acquiring" Cuba, make it a centerpiece of communism for all the world to see? Not! ) was the little jolt I needed to fully see the light. Sometimes the kids are right. Especially when they live and work in a place like China.

COLLEEN: Good Morning Colleen. You are so much the voice of civility and Reason here. A becalming presence and a grand soul.

Bank: Yes, I did say that government has a function as an auditor of banks. Regretfully, there is a need for police in society. I also said that private insurance performs an audit function as it assesses its risk and sets it rates. Additionally, a third audit function would evolve in a standard rating scheme by credit evaluation by firms such as S&P and Moody's.

In effect, three audit functions minimize the chance that a dishonest banker can bribe one of the auditors or be subject to improper political
pressure from the governments audit role.

WW: Excellent insights last nite into raids in technical levels, and confidence in currency. What some do not understand when they promulgate the old argument that anything man chooses to be currency is currency, is that man invariably chooses real money based on its inherent value. Paper money was originally a receipt or note written against such an item. While none would dispute the utility of a piece of paper that can fit in the palm of one's hand ( can write a shopping list on it, can pass a note in class, can fold it up and shim something that is wobbling ) that value does not compare to an ounce of gold which occupies even less space in the palm, but will provide far more utility in what it can be exchanged for. When the writing on the paper states that the bearer of the sheet may acquire an ounce of gold, THEN the paper has "currency." It IS currency. Today, with nothing behind the paper except "confidence," the creators of the paper ( banking/government industrial complex ) can manipulate the supply of "money" ( actually fiduciary, or money substitute ) at will. This manipulation will ALWAYS be, in the long-term, at the expense of savers and accumulators of money. The thrifty and efficient. It will always reduce the potential standard of living, aberrate the natural potential for distrubution of wealth to the entire society, and raise the price level inexhorably over time, wiping out or severely damaging the purchasing power of the people's savings. It is not money, be it gold or paper or seashells, that brings prosperity and progress to humanity. It is human intelligence, work, and action. A commodity money - like gold, or wheat, or a sack o' tomatoes - is a real value that can be exchanged for activity, and thus allow for division of labor and the benefits that produces. It is the efficiency of stored capital that is affected, over the long term, by chronic currency inflation. The periodic adjustments necessary to compensate for this "confidence" game are devastating to the general population of hard-working, thrifty citizens. As they catch on to this, they become investors, then speculators, and traders, and we witness whole nations participating in bubbles of this nature. Unproductive, wasteful, marginal human activity is the result ( we need MORE shopping malls, right? More entertainment conglomerates, while our children go uneducated, more 4 wheel drive trucks to get us to the mall ) This retards the potential standard of living dramatically, no matter how prosperous a society may appear to the untrained, undiscerning, and superficial eye and mind.

PUETZ: Always like a good call involving the Moon. It's such a delicate matter. Looks like the Eclipse WAS powerful, but up. This time the New Moon was both effective AND in line with your expectations. I know you are not an astrologer, but according to my experience with the grand art and original science of man, we can expect SOMETHING to happen at the juncture of phenomena, but WHAT it will be is a presumption at best. In any event, three predictors at Kitco did very nice work the past week. In this imperfect world, I would say you made the trio.

JTF: It seems that we have had conflicting news reports on the matter of mainland Chinese support of the Hong Kong dollar. Makes you wonder who is in charge. Maybe the guy who is really in charge wants confusion; maybe it is an honest press flap. Whichever is correct, if it is not quickly made plain in a convincing way what the real position of the Chinese government is, the Hong Kong dollar will have a very poor time in short order.

Colleen: The anagrams were hilarious. Thanks for posting them.

Date: Sun Oct 26 1997 08:46

tolerant1 ( @Tequilaville ) :

Mike Sheller: I agree with a great deal of your post 08:17 - I merely offer this up as conversation. From all that is past to the present. Gold alone has stood nobly as a store of value, serving as a constant reminder of the weak promise of others.

No human being is infallible, gold protects us from ourselves and others in that it remains a constant. One can split hairs as to the yo-yo like fluctuation in the worth of gold from one time period to another. What one can not refute is that while humans have tried to develop a better anything as it relates to gold, they have not.

Gold is a constant reminder that we should be thankful for some things in life and there really are some things upon which improvements can not be made. For thousands of years gold has been under our noses, yet we have constantly tried to change, improve and alter the fact that gold is THE store of value, hence it's status as the only real money in the world.

But for one letter God may have been trying to tell us something. Gold, the L stands for longevity.

Will Gold Eventually Prove That
Every Dog Has Its Day?
Investors shun gold even in the face of chaos

Herb Greenberg

Even with yesterday's worldwide collapse of stocks, the price of gold barely budged, rising a little
more than $1 to around $324 per ounce.

Gold is so cheap that Royal Oak Mines, a Washington state gold producer, issued a press release
earlier this week saying that its stock trades at a 46 percent discount to the value of just one of its
four mines. Yesterday it closed at $2.50, up 6 cents.

If nothing else, according to one frustrated gold bull, the stock's slump shows how poor sentiment is
for gold, ``just as inflation is modestly turning up and foreign currencies are in disarray.'' Let's not
forget, gold used to be considered a hedge against inflation and uncertainty.

In fact, in recent years gold has brushed off nearly every event that typically would have brought it
back into favor -- such as the Iran/Iraq war, the near collapse of Britain's Barings Plc bank, the
Mexican currency crisis and even the Orange County financial fiasco.

With the precious metal doing so poorly, why would anybody still own it? Speaking for himself,
money manager Ed Levy, of Levy Harkins in New York, views it as just another asset that has
been so discredited, and is so cheap, that it can't help but shine again.

Sound familiar? A few years ago nobody wanted California real estate. There was a time not long
ago that nobody would get near an oil driller. And at times in the 1970s, there was widespread
sentiment that stocks were dead. Just as nobody could predict when those assets would be
rediscovered, Levy jokes that gold will start to run ``when all of us who own it run out of patience,''
he jokes. ``And what's going to drive it is nothing. It'll happen in a vacuum, because everything that
should have already made it go up has already happened.''

The gold story is particularly compelling, as it has been for years, when you consider that a tiny
percentage of all mutual fund holdings are in gold-related stocks. Imagine what would happen if
jittery stock-fund managers decided they needed to increase their exposure to gold just to have
something to cling to in the event stocks continue to slide.

Consider that the largest of all gold companies, Barrick Gold Corp., has a market value of $8.8
billion and $218 million in earnings. It also pays a small dividend. By contrast, America Online's
market value is $8.9 billion, has no earnings and pays no dividend.

Any guess which one has less downside risk?

Just noticed that the posting time has not been reset to standard time.

Mornin Donald! 40 degrees with drizzle here....Did you buy a kayak @ LL Bean??

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/26/y0021_y00_1.html

Can someone explain what happens at midnight that prevents my being able to see the next days posts? Obviously, there is a workaround as most of you keep right on posting. I normally am quite soundly asleep at that time but wanted to stay up and try to understand LGB last pm. Thanks in advance.

Hi Ted: We are 40F and perfect sunshine. Should be a very nice one. No Ted, I was just kidding you. I just bought some clothes. My next door neighbor has a kayak and I see several others in the water all the time. I just have a bike for exercise, an Earth Cruiser. We have flat earth here so I try to stay away from the edge. After all, how long has it been since anyone hear from Chris Columbus? Makes you think doesn't it?

If Puetz is right and this weeks pullback turns into a rout, the likely target area would be a 50% correction of the 1987 low to the 1997 highs. Approximately 587 on the S&P, a line drawn across the topps of the weekly highs between 1990 and 1995 which is now support would now come in at the 575 area. On the dow this would be in the low 5000 area. Even at these levels it would be only a normal correction in a bull market.

Mornin Speed: Bart's days have been mixed up for a while @ mid-night and if it just turned the 26th you have to click on for the 27th...get it??

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/21/gldfy_gnc_1.html

Re JTF 6:52 If thousands of tonnes are traded on the LBMA isnt the Swiss announcement much ado about nothing even if it were to occur tomorrow? Am I off Base on this one anyone ? JTF ?

Donald, Whoof Whoof! ( :- ) ) Your 08:50 post spread a little sunshine into the day here, cloudy and 40's in Hershey PA.

Be the first to check out my newly lauched Web Site.
http://www.myadviser.com.au/blizard/
The links section will take you through to "Steve Blizard's Home Page" which is a year old, & is in desperate need of updating.
Loving the coming crash. Am just waiting for the bargains. I believe in
buying on the BIG DIP, when it has DIPPED OUT......

Coal hit hardest by strife
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/market/markets5.html
The flight to quality has gone straight into US bonds, not to gold. It's America's day, not gold's.

Look East, Dr Mahathir, for the source of Asia's decline
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/world/world3.html
So it was Dr Mahathir's civilisational ally, and the apple of his Look East eye -- Japan -- that led the exodus from the stockmarkets of developing Asia. And it was Japanese investors who sold most consistently and most heavily.


US traders unprepared for market aftershocks
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/market/markets2.html
The same factors that have driven the market up will soon bucket it. Equity mutual funds are up a staggering 45 per cent on last year at over $US2.2 trillion ( $3.2 trillion ) . Recent surveys reveal these investors expect to average 34 per cent per annum return on their funds over the next 10 years. Clearly these people are going to receive a gigantic shock for which they are completely unprepared.

Shockwave: Asian meltdown spreads
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/market/markets3.html
The report says the impact on market earnings per share is felt mostly through three areas -- bulk commodity exporters like BHP, Rio Tinto, and North, financial services providers like National Mutual Holdings, Colonial Group Holdings and ANZ, and construction-related exposures such as Leighton Holdings, Boral and Pioneer International.

Between 11/26/82 till 12/22/83 Jupiter was in Scorpio. Scorpio is a malefic or negative sign. It is a
water sign. Jupiter also rules water, lots of water problems and anything else that Jupiter rules
would have a negative outcome during this period. Scorpio is also very moody so people's moods
would be testy during this period.

Between 11/14/82 till 12/9/82, Venus was also in Scorpio. Bringing out the negative side of
Venus. Perversion, destruction of nature and beauty, drugs, sex and money scams, bad water,
poison, etc.

Between 11/16/82 till 12/16/82, Sun was also in Scorpio. This is ypical for this time of each year.
Of course the Scorpio energy would be strong: sex, cruelty, passion, water problems, evil and war.

Between 11/18/82 till 12/7/82 Mercury was also in Scorpio. Mental stress, fraud, water and
moods.

Isn't it quite interesting that at approximately the same time, several planets were in Scorpio, a
feared sign in the Vedic zodiac. Scorpio is considered destructive because it is ruled by Mars, a
war planet. It is deceptive, violent, emotionally explosive and sneaky. If there were water problems
( El Nino ) during this period, it would sure fit the Scorpio image.

Between 2/17/96 till 4/17/98 Saturn will be in Pisces, a water sign. Saturn is very bad for
Pisces. The general masses will suffer. Restriction will cause emotional hardship. Earth will flood
and snow heavily since Saturn is an earth sign, oppressing Pisces a water sign.

Between 12/26/96 till 1/9/98 Jupiter will be in Capricorn, it's sign of debilitation, ( it's worst
sign ) . Any positive effects of Jupiter will be destroyed during this period. It will bring bad health,
banking crisis, problem religions ( cults, extreme fanatic religious groups ) , evil people, rain and
ocean flooding and loss of wealth. Divorce will rise, new deadly diseases, education will suffer,
religion will suffer, religious leaders will die, royalty will suffer and die, stock market crash, good
people will suffer, while bad people will progress.

Between 4/17/98 till 6/7/2000 Saturn will be in Aries, it's sign of debilitation ( it's worst sign ) .
Saturn is already tough to deal with, now it is at the lowest point. Aries is a destructive sign ruled by
Mars, WAR is imminent. Missiles are a likely weapon to be used. No question, it will be a global
catastrophe. Saturn rules masses and Aries rules conflict. Too many fires to put out at once. Saturn
rules earth and Aries is destructive and disruptive. EARTHQUAKES are definite, many and big
ones.

Between 4/5/98 till 5/16/98 Mars will be in Aries as well. Combined with Saturn in Aries at the
same time, this brings a sudden and explosive episode that will rock the masses. A bombing or
political assassination is likely. None of which are welcome.

Between 5/15/98 and 6/27/98, Mars moves into Taurus an earth sign and a very physical sign.
A direct response to the previous trauma is indicated. Troops, riots, domestic and international
violence are likely. A major earthquake could strike during this period as well.

The El Nino storms due to strike during of winter of 1997/98 will be of epic proportions. Much
land will be damaged, along with any homes and businesses on it. Huge blizzards will also strike the
world, paralyzing many countries and people. The economy will suffer and the stock market will
feel the effects. November and December are prime months for a stock market crash. Wealthy
people will take a big hit. The middle class will not recover for years from the damages. The poor
are already in trouble and this won't help them at all. Donations will dry up as money is directed
elsewhere.

Stock Market Effects: While Jupiter is in Capricorn, the only stocks for investment that will
increase are health and medical related. Gold prices are expected to collapse. When Jupiter moves
into Aquarius on 1/9/98, then electronic technology: Internet and online related technologies, outer
space related technology and nuclear energy stocks will be lucrative until 1/13/99.

Since Bill Gates is wealthy and undergoing current federal legal trouble, you can bet he will lose
his case and have to break up his holdings. Jupiter is not in a favorable sign for him to be telling the
truth under oath. When it moves into Aquarius in January 1998, the deceptions will be discovered.
Of course this will make the competition rich as did the ATT / MCI federal decision.

California will suffer major weather-related destruction. Floods, earthquakes and fires are likely. If
there is a war and missiles are launched against the US, California and New York are major targets
since they are seaports for shipping and harbor battleships to carry troops across the ocean to fight.

Ted: I tried that, do I have to be in frames? Thanks!

Roebear: You only get 1 hour of sunshine. I took it all away with the 9:50 post.

BREAKING NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA
25th October 1.57 am Perth time

US Traders unprepared for market aftershocks
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/market/markets2.html

China flushes $130 BILLION to stop the panic
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971025/pageone/pageone1.html

Market Mayhem - Korea teetering on the edge
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971025/business/business1.html

CURRENCY CRISIS - Shockwaves from the North, How the Polo club got it
wrong
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/features/features/971025/features1.html

The troubles in Asia - Editorial ( Sydney Morning Herald 25th October )
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971025/columns/columns1.html

Aussie Super ( 401k ) funds slash their exposure to Asia
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971025/business/business4.html

Korea now the concern
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971025/business/business6.html

Shockwave: Asian meltdown spreads
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/market/markets3.html

BHP ( the not so Big Australian ) a possible takeover target ( HOT NEWS )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/invest/invest7.html

Asia Ignites - "Huge deflationary force for the world economy"
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/perspective/perspective1.html

Asia strife hits Aussie Company Lend Lease
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/property/property1.html

Hong Kong pulls out of free fall ( for how long??? )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/world/world1.html

It's all eyes on Korea ( By Federal Government )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/news/news1.html

Central Banks blamed for fueling speculation ( who else?? )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971025/world/world2.html

STEVE'S COMMENT: DEFLATION IS IN. Bonds are looking good
short term, but will they last the distance??? Thanks to those who emailed their response/views on this to me..

Good morning to you good people. The Market Watch column in The New York Times this morning points out that the spread between Brady bonds and treasuries jumped Thursday and Friday ( about 4.1% now from 3.3% ) . As this developing domino crisis gets closer to home, can junk bonds here be far from cracking? Equity players are in for more scary headlines.

works for me---go figure ..eh!...This has been goin for a while BART...

LGB: at 00:43 you said, . Neither I nor anyone else needs a "respect" Passport in order to post our thoughts here.

My response is, Why do you post here? Is it to see your words in print? Do you speak just to hear yourself? If you wish to engage people in discussion with the purpose of informing, exchanging ideas and possibly changing someone's mind, then a level of civility is necessary. By being rash and abrasive, you ensure only that your good thoughts will be rejected along with the pompous notion that logic and science are the at the apex of human achievement.

TOLERANT 1 : We can't have a "conversation" because all I can do is agree with you! You are right... on the "money." DONALD: Re 8:50 - Royal Oak selling at tremendous discount for just one mine points up what I, and many at Kitco, have been saying. The PM industry is at the same juncture today as GM was a few years ago when the US Auto industry was "going down the tubes." Anyone who bought GM then would have been deemed crazy, and would have been scared. But when you're scared is the time to buy. Same goes for IBM when it was 44 bucks and a "dying dinosaur." Yeah. Right. This is why I have been involved as a Director in a public company implementing a strategy of accumulating assets in the ground. We have claims, and options on claims at incredibly dirt-cheap prices. This is an old, classic natural resources play. You buy all the parcels ( as in oil & gas leases, or properties, or PM properties & claims ) that the big boys find "uneconomical," and the little companies are too share-diluted to own. Every buck in new money goes into bargain basement prices on gold and silver in the ground. The Earth is your bank vault. Revenue streams from development of the richest, most accessible claims first are put back into more properties, claims & options on claims. When the tide turns, and it will, all those assets in the ground will be...well, like GOLD! It is pyramiding on the misfortune in the industry at present. The same misfortune IBM and GM underwent in their down cycle.
It's strictly business. You just need faith, guts, a little expertise, and MONEY. That's where I'm at. Day to day, week to week predictions and market analysis are fun, and I'll always be tempted to stick my neck out that way. But the real business play in mining right now is in the ground. The rest will take care of itself. The trick is to finance a fresh operation for maximum leverage. Next is to buy the stock of a depressed miner. Unfortunately, those shares have been diluted over several cycles. But the bargains are there for the patient businessman. Re your 9:50 astro predictions, where did you get all that. It's too much for me to deal with on a Sunday morning. I'm just an' ol' shade tree astrologer you know.

Deflation and Gold

Does anyone agree with me that in all cases where the US has been worried about deflation the Feds response is to upvalue gold?

What did Roosevelt do ? Nixon? Volker?

catching up.....the 'jugernaut' begins:
here is my recent 're-copy', edited for
you, as e-mailed to another:
------
""... I would not be so
concerned with the current 'crash & confusion' reigning in precious
metals markets. It is a buying opportunity, without precedence, in this
century.
...
The Swiss Bank 'news' is obviously coinciding with the currency/market
turmoil/malaise -- that has first started with the "Asia Tigers", now
including Hong Kong.
The cancer is spreading, relentlessly.

It - the Swiss Nat'l Bank propsed "mobilization" of gold reserves, is
nothing more than 'media-hype' -- the proverbial finger stuck in the
dike, as a feeble, last-ditch effort to stem the ensuing flood.....of a
credit/debt structured economic world, approaching "melt'down" -- that
is to say: its day of reckoning.

The 'center-post' ( -the US $ & economy/markets ) are sensing the
encroaching and ominous threat, and know that their day of reckoning is
inevitable.

Europe's help is enlisted - as the Swiss Bank's announced
"sale" -- a "consideration" and "proposal" of "possibly" "mobilizing"
( -not selling ) her gold reserves ( a couple years in the future ) , up
to 50% .... is hoped to stem the tide of growing realization, and fear
.... and the ensuing panic, which is inevitable.

The international economic monetary & banking "system", that has evolved
in this second half of the 20th century, has sensed it's own terminal
condition/mortality. Hyperbolic curves always reach their point of
"infinity" -- their "point of no return". It is nothing more than a law
of nature. ... coming 'full-circle'.

Every conceivable stop-gap measure of manipulation
by government & monetary authorities, as heralded by the media's
'world-wide press', will do everything they can, to keep this monetary
cancer ( -- an out-of-control, world-wide credit/debt-structure ) , in
remission -- that is: from collapsing.

But it's continued disintegration is, nevertheless accelerating
... - witness this past week's world-wide markets volatility, a clue of
the approaching turmoil.

Nothing, no-one, not even any collective world-wide powers-that-be, and
their 'collaboration', will stop -- nor much longer delay -- this
looming jugernaut.

1998 will be the beginning of the end.

Mike I feel the same way about my gold holdings now as I did about citi bank in 1990 when it was $10/sh.

David, the sale of gold I don't believe is an attempt to give confidence to the other markets. A stable gold price or slightly rising one would do this. People trade gold for other things becase they don't have money to do it with. Currency, money, whatever; is a lot easier to use than gold to settle financial obligations.

We are definitely entering a new era and taking down with it the financial house of cards. No one will escape whats coming.

For those who are setting clocks all over the place here's a site for correct time. http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/

Dear jfk-, et al. ...
you are entitled to your opinion ( s
as i am, to mine

best regards,
david blair macrory

I think one of the reasons that gold is an ideal store of wealth is that there is no "enterprise value" in it. That is it should be boring to hold because it while having no enterprise value also has no enterprise risk. Enterprise value? The diference between gold bullion and gold stocks.

Date: Sat Oct 25 1997 20:27
David ( goldfevr@pacbell.net ) ID#269218:
( reference my http://www.kitco.com post, of 9/27/97 16:48, : )

'WHEN THE TENT COLLAPSES' : : )

"When the 'tent' collapses... ( -'tent' - the U.S.
dollar/markets/economy )
"it will not be the center-post... ( - U.S. stock-market )
"that goes first;
"it will be the 'side-posts' ... ( - So. Amer. & Europe ) ,
"and even the 'stakes' ... ( - the 'Asian Tigers' ) .
...
etc.

Sincerely yours,
David Blair Macrory, C.T.A.
Tierra$anta Trading
San Diego, CA

Mike Sheller: Three stocks I like very much and suggest that you look into: Tan Range Exploration, Oroperu, International Pursuit -

I think they are worth a look at. If you have any stocks you feel are solid, please send them my way so I can look them up and promote them to myself.

fjkdlaq; For what it is worth there have been studies done wherein it was determined that gold was not a good inflation hedge, but served better in a capacity as a deflation hedge.

http://wwwstrategicinvestment.com

FJKDLAQ: I agree with you. Bear in mind ( no pun intended ) that this is the FIRST Kondratieff Wave in history where no nation utilizes a gold standard ( or specie of any kind ) for its currency. This means that the normally deflationary aspect of the cycle ( we are in it now ) may be aberrated and circumvented somewhat by chronic and incessant inflation. This has been going on BY DEFINITION ( increase of note issue over increase, or amount, of specie ) . It supports a monumental debt machine which depends on unbacked currency for its existence. When it is threatened by any sort of collapse, the mechanism is in place for an immediate response of MORE inflation, and at a noticeably greater level. In such a crisis it will, over time, become clear to the sleepwalkers what the relationship between real assets and paper notes really is. By then, those who understand what is coming will have all the cheap gold they can carry. Those who call for impending DEflation, and those who call for impending INflation are both, in a great sense, correct.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/26/z0009_6.html

The Swiss are very shrewd people when it comes to money. There is the possibility that their announcement of future gold sales might be a ploy to panic the market in the short term and begin a program to accumulate more cheaper gold on a gradual basis for an uncertain future ( eg. worldwide currency crisis ) . It seems unlikely that they would risk an announcement of such monetary importance without seeking a high reward in the long run. They have the power to manipulate the gold market, and they would do it to their advantage even though it appears otherwise on the surface to most of us.

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971026/business/stories/stocks_3.html

Over half of RYO s production will be at below 100 per oz when the Kemess project comes on line in April. This includes a credit for the copper deposit. Salomon Bros Leanne Baker likes the stock.

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Sunday October 26 2:13 AM EST
FUND VIEW-Hong Kong mkt's global impact exaggerate

By Sarah Davison
HONG KONG, Oct 26 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong's 10-percent stock market crash on Thursday sparked a global share sell-off, but Asian fund managers cautioned against overplaying Hong Kong's role in the global shake-out.
``I don't think the ( global ) downturn will last for very long. I think it was kind of a knee-jerk reaction,'' said David Descalzi, senior portfolio manager at Prudential Asia.
``U.S. equities, they may plunge under their own weight, but I don't think it'll be driven by Asia.''
Following the 1,211.47-point, 10.4 percent plunge on Black Thursday, the Hang Seng recovered nearly seven percent to close at 11,144.34 on Friday, paring the week's losses to 18 percent.
But U.S. stocks ended sharply lower for the second straight day on Friday, succumbing to renewed investor jitters about the impact of Asia's financial crisis on U.S. corporations.
The blue chip Dow Jones Industrials index sank 132.36 points, or 1.7 percent, to 7715.41, adding to Thursday's 187-point fall.
London's FTSE index also crumbled, shedding another 21.3 points to end below the key psychological level of 5,000 and bring its weekly losses to more than 300 points, or six percent.
However, Descalzi said the U.S. and European markets should benefit from cash flowing out of Asia.
``Some companies are going to get hurt, but as a percentage of total corporate earnings, in the U.S. it's small, and probably smaller still in Europe,'' he said.
Rather than moving from one market or region into another, global investment appeared to shift away from equities into fixed income instruments, fund managers said, with U.S. treasuries rising as Hong Kong equities fell.
It was too early to claim any permanent switch between asset classes in portfolio allocations, the fund managers said, partly because ever-present inflation jitters in the United States also played a big role in last week's switch into fixed income.
With U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan looking increasingly unlikely to raise interest rates immediately, treasuries have become more attractive.
``And even if he does raise rates, whatever minimal loss you sustain on your longbond price would probably look a lot better than the losses you might incur holding equities in these markets,'' the fund manager said.
For Asian fund managers, the only option was to raise cash.
Hong Kong was the region's last safe haven -- although some with a mandate including Australia and Japan joined the trend and moved into fixed income instruments in those denominations.
``Everyone was overweight Hong Kong and they had to raise cash all of a sudden,'' said Franklin Lam, head of research at SBC Warburg.
But Thursday's action simply added momentum to a switch that was already occuring.
``We've been getting out of Hong Kong over the past couple of months,'' Gary Greenberg, deputy managing director at Peregrine Asset Management, said late on Friday afternoon.
``We cut our weightings and hedged where we could. But to be honest we just unwound our hedges about half an hour ago.''
The stock market fell on Thursday as Hong Kong authorities raised interest rates to punishing levels to deflect currency speculation on the Hong Kong dollar, but rates eased on Friday as the assault appeared to subside.
-- Hong Kong Newsroom ( 852 ) 2843 6470
REUTER
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Mike Sheller: I have not been to Shanghai myself, but one of my friends did - noticed the efforts to make Shanghai an economic showpiece. Donald has said that we have some posts that say mainland China will support Hong Kong, and some that say they will not. Not good timing, I would say. I would not have guessed that Shanghai ( or other sites in China ) would be ready to supplant Hong Kong, given that expensive bridge, and I believe a rail line to the new territories. Perhaps this was done mostly with HK dollars.
There may be other reasons why mainland China does not wish to support the HK$: Namely the $200 billion in debt of the SOE's. If the mainland Chinese are that well off financially, they would not have dropped interest rates 1 1/2%. Also, perhaps the mainland Chinese are not the ones that would be embarrased if the HK$ fell -- just those in Hong Kong. A "little" turmoil in HK would make HK more dependent upon mainland China as well. Regardless of what we call the mainland Chinese, the government is still communist, and HK still has much of the vestiges of the Western powers - a thorn in the site of the Chinese for a over a century.
I think the most important factor in Hong Kong's future is whether the forces attacking Hong Kong really have $1 Trillion at their fingertips, or not. Could be hype -- just like the 1440 tonnes of Swiss gold!

TOLERANT 1: As you may have discerned by now, I am very much involved as an officer in a public gold mining venture, so I try not to look over my shoulder too much at other companies. We are doing what is neccessary to build assets in the ground at this time, and must keep to our strategy. Otherwise, as an outside investor, I like the tried and true pedigreed gold shares - Echo Bay ( despite all the crummy news ) , Homestake, Placer Dome. Astrologically I like GSTD for current planetary action upcoming, and Placer Dome has the kind of horoscope you'd like your kid to marry into. It is a long-term thoroughbred. Echo Bay is dirt cheap, and so are so many others that you could probably throw darts at this point and wind up with 100% gains in a year. But I must caution you that I see this gold opportunity as a long-term secular cycle move, much as the conditions in 1929, and 1972. I did not publicly become bullish on gold until the Spring of this year. I had been predicting for long before that that gold would experience maximum stress in Spring '97 and again in the Fall. I did this on the basis of proprietary astrological analysis. I have been proven right. This is incontrovertible. I am NOT a perpetual bull on gold, but everything has now fallen into place for a MAJOR asset inversion. We've only had 2 others this century. The early part of the next Century will reveal gold in the thousands of dollars per ounce. I stand by that. One must not be deterred by the little ripples on the big wave. If you have been averaging in since spring, and continue to average in for the next few months, you will be well situated.

Your note on "flation" is exactly to the point, I think. It is not a particular exchange rate between gold and paper which causes financial disruption, it is sudden and violent CHANGE in convertibility. Either direction destroys economic stability.

Mike Sheller: I have been buying from the graveyard for a while now.

Rumour leaking from Zrich major Swiss Bank went heavily SHORT gold this week... in anticipation of announcement of Swiss government to sell a large portion of its reserves.

JTF: Shanghai has always been the financial capital, the New York, or London as it were, of China. One cannot fault the Chinese sense of national pride in wanting to restore THEIR traditional money and finance center to its rightful throne. I am no sympathizer with communism or state imposed collectivism of any kind, but Hong Kong was indeed a British COLONY, and this has to have stuck in the Chinese craw for a long long time. They are moving faster than I thought, but those people closer to the situation than I had the right read about the national character and intent on this issue.

Tolarent1

Is that the right address?

tolerant@hotmail.com

WW; re your 9:30. I am no expert on the LBMA, but I think it is fair to say that all of their trades are "off the market" so offical gold prices are not affected. The rumored sale of 1440 tonnes of Swiss gold was announced publically on Friday, with the apparent desired effect. As far as I can tell all of the "official" Central Bank sales are done off the market, and then the announcement of the sale is made for maximum psychological effect. You are right that these sales are small compared to LBMA trading, but the effect is psychological. I find it intriguing that the actual gold prices seem to be minimally affected by the secret Central bank sales, except perhaps to the pros. I am very amused by what happened on Friday, because the Swiss people would never vote to sell 1/2 of their gold reserves. If the Swiss sell gold to protect their image ( re: holocaust ) even this would take years. Only the Rothschilds would be less likely than the Swiss to sell their gold at a fire sale. The Swiss will wait as long as 10-15 years to sell their gold- at the best price. Not now! The powers that be must be getting desperate if they have to ask the Swiss to make an announcement of future gold sales. Their quiver must be empty! Perhaps our long awaited gold rally is not so far away after all.

Mike Sheller: You sound like the Australian Finance Minister, Costello? If we need some we will just dig it out of the ground.

Inflation vs. Deflation. My position has been, and is expected to remain, that we will experience a severe deflation for the next year or two. That will be followed by a burst of money printing as the government attempts to bail itself out of declining tax revenues. Depending on the severity of the deflation, the money creation might not immediately result in inflation. But of course, eventually it would. If we go back on gold I will want to revise that opinion.

JTF: Just noticed your 7:28 re Greenspan. Very wise. The man must be in an incredible moral and intellectual dilemma...unless power has corrupted, absolutely. We may never know, but what a fascinating autobiographical chapter this would be.

What ever happened to his partner Abbott?

Donald:

WOW!! That was some 'reading' . Are you a joytishi?

This is a short lived phenomenon and a great opportunity to add to positions. The bottom always looks the worst before a large rally.

GJM: 11:10 -- Interesting idea! Either way you look at it, the powers that be ( whoever they are ) are pushing gold down -- probably for the last time, since a report of 100 or 200 tonnes of German gold sales will now have no effect. The only other thing I can think of that would be more traumatic would be of our AG anounced that he sold what we had in Fort Knox! But would the gold price then go down --- or up?

Another favorite, to mark the end of summer time
( To the tune of "Summertime", from "Porgy and Bess" ) :

Summertime, and the gold price is falling,
Stocks are jumpy, and the Dow is too high,
All my money's gone, and my broker's in Rio,
Oh, hush, little baby, do-on't you cry-y.

Come the day, when the gold price starts rising,
Then I'll spread my wings, and take to the sky,
Till that day, I'll keep posting on Kitco,
"Oh hush, little baby, do-on't you cry-y."

DONALD: Seriously ( when have you known me to be flippant? ) the metal in the ground is like money in the bank. In 2006, when the PM's are so high you'll get a kink in your neck looking at a price chart, all the mutual funders and money manglers will be falling all over themselves to buy the shares of any gold outfit with reserves of any kind. Pennies invested today will be dollars...nay, TENS of dollars, in less than a decade. This is the LOOOONG and BIIIIG one, Donald. As a corporate astrologer, I look at a lot of company incorporation dates. There is a pretty big bulge in new gold company incorporations in 1980, and for a year or two afterwards. Again in 1987. What does this say to you? Under present industry conditions, getting cash for fresh projects is brutal - but this is EXACTLY when investors should be coming in. At the next big 1980 style gold bull peak, sometime in the next century, people will literally be forcing money on mining entrepreneurs. Just when they should be scared and getting out.
It's an old story. And, like I say, it's business. Donald, we may not even have to dig it out.

LUCKY: There's a boat dat's leavin', sooo-ooon...

It does'nt take any mass amounts of intellegence to understand the tables are turning and they always will. Just so happens it's gold's turn. Very simple investing "buy low sell high". The masses will get fooled again and again and again. A never ending process.

Mike: I hear ya, bro...

tolerant1

i found it but I am not allowed access

If in the comming storm gold rises to the top, who will set the price and in what form? Gold can only be money if someone is willing to exchange their product for your gold at an agreed upon. Think about the consequences of this. What will be the price of an automobile? 100 oz .999 fine. Our economy's cannot function in this matter. Reguardless of ones feeling of fractional currency the physical posession of gold is clumberson. Remember, this is how banks got started. Everyone thinks the times of gold backed currency were great. A lot of people think that living back in the early part of this century was great. But think how you would live without air conditioning, or refrigerators. You would be hot in summer and cold in winter. Your food would spoil and your children would not have milk to drink unless you own a cow. I am a believer in gold. I own it and am buying more. But keep in the back of your mind, when the flag goes up what will be the real result of the collapse of the banking system. Will those of us that have be able to prevent the majority that dont from taking it away from us?

Just reading yesterday's market highlights ( ?? ) in the Globe+Mail and notice that the biggest percentage loser on the TSE Friday was the parent company of my brilliant ISP ( Hook-up communications ( can't help laughing when I read that name ) down 31% to .255 ( down from a 52 week high of 3.20 ) WONDER WHY---DOOOOOH.....@ .255 the company is still over-valued by .255!

http://www.chebucto.ns.ca/~an388/sep97.html

Donald, just alerted to this one on SI, people are looking to substantiate or find original URL. Could be cats out of the bag can you find it? I'll look also but my moneys on you:- ) )
Adrian Day reports that the news media selectively reported
Swiss plans to sell AU. Said that an advisory panel made reccomendation and that it
was rejected by the government.
( eom )

Mike Sheller: Sloooowly he turned, and Abbott was gone! Do you remember that movie?

Roebear: I don't think that it was rejected by the government. The Chairman of the Swiss National Bank, a member of the Commission, refused to agree to the majority report of the full Commission. I will see if I can find it again.

Colleen
One thing that I see more than anything else is volatility - its currently greater than ever before within our financial lives. I bought some bank puts last week and already I'm up 100%+.
This in reality is absurd, but it is part of the new financial era.
This I feel is AG's greatest fear, too much money can be highly leveraged instantly into a speculative play.
Imagine if China invested ( leveraged ) $1billion into shorting the US market, then turned around and made a law that no citizens could hold US equities, and then dumped US bonds. Guess who wins? Sounds far fetched, well I read it in a newspaper yesterday.
In my post 3:09 it says "In July Forbes named Mr. Lee as the world's ninth richest man, but the Post said his net worth had fallen by more than half to $US6.02 billion ( $8.53 billion ) and he was now only 35th richest in the world." - Bet that hurts, and he's not on his lonesome either.
Years ago no one would 'risk' that much money to make more money - there was a big difference between investing for the future and speculating for tomorrow's profits.
Today I speculate, EB and Eldorado speculate. This is not investing at all, it is using ones wits to make a short term buck and if your good you can make a lot of money very quickly.
I sense a 'quickening' in peoples attitudes towards making money - the 'I made this much today what about you' scenario. Hey, with the internet, I can see how much I make or lose every minute, change my horse in mid-stream at a moments notice. I see day traders picking up 300% in 25 minute plays. ( I'll have to practise )
This quickening plus the volatility within today's markets, gives new meaning to risk/reward plays within our markets, and I feel that the average investor, let alone the sharp players have become very complacent towards this. This is a deadly cocktail when turned against us. The sharks will turn on all and every one to extract a quick profit.
I've set up indicators on volatility and %movements, and constantly monitor many stocks and indices.
They are all telling me that this market has gone haywire. Readings are at extremes everywhere. Some indicators are showing patterns only seen once or twice before.
Great profit plays if managed well, but excessively dangerous.
One can see big price swings happening on no news and low volumes, just excessive lust to catch a quick profit quickly.
IBM's weekly chart is a classic, showing ever widening oscillations. God help us if it was to break into the next upswing - all AG's fears would be multiplied by 10, because the rest of the market would follow suite.
It is my belief that AG can not let this market take one more leg up because it would be the most outrageous bull run ever seen, as everyone throws caution to the wind and the carnage at the bottom would be fatal.
Because of all this excessive volatility that is throbbing within our market, it must move strongly, it cannot stay where it is and sit there placidly while it builds up new momentum.
AG wants the heat off it more than anyone and has been calling out for it to happen for over a year now.
The market must therefore turn and head in a downwards direction. All the fundamentals call for a trend reversal - earnings, inflation, over capitalization, etc etc.
Now with all this speculation and greed to make money, coming to realise that the tide has turned, there will be some very fast and very big exiting being done. Price fluctuations are about to go to the moon as the swell of sellers overcomes the ebb of buyers.
The events that have been happening these last two weeks, are ample proof that the tide is turning.
The markets performance this last week has seen excessive volatility and a dearth of selling beginning.
The dows performance on Friday was a confirmation of this and gave a loud and clear message to the rest of the world. SELL.
Korea on Saturday was a good example of what to expect this week, 17 stocks down to 1 stock up ie. 17 sellers to every 1 buyer.
I have no doubt that the same effect will hit our shores on Monday and will echo around the world.
Our market has had me confused for a while because we went out of sync with US markets. I finally put it down to Aussie's thinking that they were smarter than the US and were trying to pre-empt the US markets. Our OZ markets fundamentals - new highs/new lows, advances/decliners are in an absolute mess at the moment. The mining index is as dead as a doornail, with the industrials falling to pieces over the last month. Monday here can only end up down bigtime - especially with gold putting the boot in on our miners. I expect that it will be truly humbling and start of the first real wave of panic.
England's reversal Friday from 100 up to 122 down shows the inherent volatility present.
The US market so far seems very complacent - puts/calls etc. No real fear as yet.
Avid which was bearish in march is now bullish?
I read where one player went long and then went out to golf, only to return devastated. How could this happen to me?
With these great amounts of lack of fear and complacency in trading techniques, being highly leveraged and subject to excessive volatility, the average investor is about to be whip-sawed and margin called.
Systemic risk has been designed to work under normal volatility, and shall fall apart when this beast turns downhill fast.
The losses soon to be afflicted will be ballooned out of all proportions.
The banks and major trading houses have the greatest to lose out of all this, as not only will they have to wear their investor's losses, but they will have to face up to their own massive losses due to their excessive
leveraging and debt levels. This is why the Fed's have been on high alert as regards some banks liquidity.
They will have no choice but to start pumping liquidity into the system.
This all smells to be of such a greater impact on our society than '87 that I feel that it will more likely resemble '29. When all those banks failed.
Currently in the US there is a move afoot to make these major houses accountable for their large leveraged positions - they would have to show their transactions to all. They are fighting this tooth and nail because it will show up the dangers and excesses that are currently commonplace.
Back in the good old days there was none of this leveraging, even in '87 this practise had only begun.
Now we have a $60 trillion derivatives market, leveraged to the maximum. We have small traders and investors leveraged into leveraged shares - borrowing from banks to purchase derivatives etc.
The daily turnover of paper - what I owe you, what you owe me - is far greater than the sum of the assets involved. There wouldn't be a hundredth of available money to pay everybody what they are owed.

This is why I choose to have a security blanket available to me ( cash under the mattress ) .
This period in time shows the highest probability of financial failure to each and everyone of us.
Far greater than in '87, far greater than any of us have ever seen.
It might not happen, but the probability is exceptionally high.
It is no longer investing, it is speculating, and that is what has been inflicted upon each and everyone of us by the banking systems and the Governments who rule.
We can see that they are very serious by their comments and actions of late.

I will be amongst it all when it all falls apart, speculating that I will make a big buck. But I will tidy my house of affairs and carry my security blanket with me to protect my family. The same as I will do 1/2 way through '99. It is only being prudent, costs little, can be returned easily and lets me sleep well at night.

I remember when I used to go to sea, that I would always leave port in shipshape condition. Supplies would be stowed, rigging would be checked, crew would be sober and bilge's would be pumped. If we ever ran into bad weather it would only take a short time to be prepared and ready. When we were going into a cyclone we would literally 'batten the hatches'. I always had confidence and always came home to tell the story. Many friends never did, not to say that it was their fault, but they just weren't shipshape.

NOW - THIS WEEK COMING - I BELIEVE IT IS TIME TO "BATTEN THE HATCHES"

Because I can smell a change in the air. The long range forecasters have predicted this.
All I have done, is gone up into the rigging everyday lately.
Smelled the air, looked around at the life in the sea, to see if it was normal, and watched the clouds.

Remember that I have yet to see this storm.
But the barometer is falling fast, the fish in the sea have changed their patterns, and the clouds look ominous.
This wave feels as if it is going to be travelling fast, hard and furious.
It may well be measured in hours not weeks or days.

These are just my thoughts Colleen, sorry to ramble on.
But needless to say " I smell something coming"

How about you? Not much time to get shipshape left.
As always IMHO.

PS 'my precious' has entered a period of excessive volatility too ( :-}}}}

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/26/y0004_z00_1.html

Donald: Your 9:50 post was GLOOMY! I don't profess to know Astrology -- too confusing for my simple-minded brain! However, I do know several things -
First a nuclear attack on the US won't be with missles. But you are right that a major seaport is most exposed to terrorist attack by that suitcase nuclear weapon.

Secondly, I have learned from my reading that within the cycle of one pattern is always another. For example, the "bad" that happens to us is always synchronized with the "good". In other words, our future cannot be all bad, and if it is, beware the outlook of the forecaster.

Thirdly, I think you have overlooked -- the awakening ( on the net ) , spiritual rebirth ( I think ) , eventual merging of the hard sciences with the not so hard ones such as Astrology, through the study of ( quantized? ) cycles. Free energy ( zero point energy ) -- the Japanese apparently have working electric motors with greater than unity efficiency ( under highly specialized conditions ) . If there is an energy crisis, they will try use them in a big way. The Japanese are master engineers, and will not hesitate to try something just because some theoretical Physicist tells them it will not work. There is too much experimental data on this to be ignored. "Cold fusion" -- not cold fusion at all -- but something else -- actually works, with a mainstream MIT Physics study to prove it! Once scientist alread died from an unpredictable runaway reaction. There are many things hidden in the backwaters of humankind which will come forward when the establishment can no longer oppress them, for whatever reason. Perhaps we will find in studies of zero point energy, and cold fusion the secrets we need to travel to the stars! Some of our most brilliant scientific advances were during times of turmoil.
We may have the collapse of the dollar eventually, just as the English pound was replaced in 1933 by the dollar, as I recall. But we survived -- I'm here because my parents survived, and so did you and your family.
Regardless, we must never give up hope for the better, no matter what happens.

JTF
I am totally baffled by what AG's going to do. The rest of the market seem the same. They haven't come up with one good reason why he's calling this special meeting, or why he changed it to the 29th ( grin thing ( :- )
He never announced his last meeting at all, but he timed it explicitly to stop the market rising.
I can't imagine what he can do as he's 'between a rock and a hard place'.
I have a glimpse of a feeling, that he's going to burst the bubble, quick and sharp, with the least amount of pain and damage.

To pull off a crash of '87 magnitude, would be a blessing in disguise. A one day purge and all is done.

Put up rates 2% now!
Then after the crash, say that the problem is solved and drop them 2.5% and just keep the economy going the same as now.

Don't know?
But he is playing a game at which he is supreme master, and he has total power.
He must be the White Queen!

Check!

Your 12:29 post was fascinating! The experienced day traders are raking the money in, because they can benefit on the turmoil. But anyone longer term may get caught in the huge cross currents.
A massive speculative short on US securities by someone with inside information about a pending sale of same could rake in billions. The bigger the trades like these, the more unstable the market will become. Imagine if several speculators on the worldwide scene all decided to do some variation on this theme all at once! The market chop would be horrendous!
Another possibility that might look very much like this would be the unwinding of those 60$ trillion annual derivatives trades. Nick -- do you think that all those derivative trades are coming apart??
Opinions?

George Cole and LGB - your assessments on CB philosophies are accurate.
For all of you "conspiracy theorists" out there, it looks like CBs are
pushing people away from gold, and into electronic commerce.

Will Asia's Malady Infect the World? By FLOYD NORRIS EW YORK -- Risk, the four-letter word investors forgot, is back. And so is the business cycle. It was stock market gyrations that captured all the headlines last week, as Hong Kong led the world on a wild ride. But the most interesting developments might have been taking place in international bond markets. There, the complacency that had greeted Asia's problems has evaporated. "It was the first time we saw contagion in our market," said Lincoln Y. Rathnam, the president of Schooner Asset Management in Boston, speaking of the market for Third World debt. When Asia's troubles started, the initial response of many investors was to seek safety in, of all places, Latin America. It was taken for granted that emerging markets would continue to grow. And if one set of them had problems, why not head for the others? South American Brady bonds -- government bonds widely owned by foreigners whose principal, but not interest payments, are effectively guaranteed by the United States Treasury -- saw their prices rise. So did Latin American stock markets. At the end of June, governments that had Brady bonds outstanding had an effective interest cost of about four percentage points more than the comparable Treasury rates. Then Asian currencies began to suffer, and money left that region for Latin America. By early last week the spread between rates was down to 3.3 percentage points, a huge move. But all of that move evaporated on Thursday and Friday. What appears to have happened is that a lot of bond managers, including some whose clients thought they were more conservative, had bought Latin bonds. Now, they are scrambling to get out, as are stock fund managers who bought Latin equities. They fear that the Asian malady may spread. Asia, an area of rapid growth for much of the 1990s, probably is in for a significant slump. Details vary from country to country, of course, but the region is characterized by excessive debt for many companies and gross overbuilding of office buildings and of some industries. Real estate prices in many countries had risen far too rapidly. Many banks are in trouble. That slump means that Asians are less likely to buy what we sell, and more likely to cut prices to push the goods they sell to us. That means lower inflation for us, and bigger risks for investors in Asia. If investors do turn more averse to emerging markets, it will be harder for even those countries with good economic conditions to attract capital, a situation that will limit their growth and possibly lead to failures among companies that might have made it had the capital spigot remained open. Such a flight to safety could have positive implications for American markets. Less money going into Third World bonds may make more money available for American ones. But believers in the rosy economic outlook, in which recession-free growth continues for years and years, may pause at the realization that the business cycle lives on in the part of the world that had been the strongest. World growth is unlikely to be as high as was expected, and neither are corporate profits in America, Europe or Japan. Even as American stocks were sliding late last week, the American junk bond market was holding up. So far, investors do not foresee real economic problems in this country. But the complacent feeling that all is right with the world has been shaken. Greed may still be the prevalent emotion, but fear is gaining.

For what it is worth:

Date: Sat Oct 25 1997 23:29
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:

Tolerant One: The last time an audit was made of the gold in Fort Knox was during the late 1950s. That was about the same time that foreign central banks began cashing in their Dollars for gold.

Nick ( @Aussie ) : You are right that the key to the next several weeks of so is what our White Knight or White Queen will do. He probably has so many choices on the board, he does not know which one is the best. If he raises interest rates by 2%, the turmoil would bring all of the world's markets down. He can't afford that.
I am wondering if he will do anything to interest rates right now. Since the market is in turmoil, and he has already hinted at rate increases, why does he need to do anything now? My guess is that he delayed because he wanted to see that threatening move by the Black Queen first! One nice thing about Chess -- you can think about your next move while you are waiting for your opponent to move. In real life the rules are not that simple. Why should he raise rates, when the turmoil in Hong Kong and China will keep the market down until that Tsunami of SE Asia goods reaches all of our shores? The earnings drop in the businesses sensitive to these cheap goods may do his dirty work for him. In the meanwhile, he can look statemanlike -- holding everything together without actually being the cause of the turmoil! After the dust settles, then he can do something, if he wishes! The only fly in the ointment would be a run on the dollar -- then he might have to do something -- but the markets would raise long term rates anyway. Opinions?

Colleen, JTF: Am I joytishi? Even Hepcat never accused me of anything like that! That occult was not my personal work. Here is the site where I picked it up. Actually, it was only an extract from a much larger item.

http://www.biorhythms.com/

What is Joytishi?

I have a strong gut feel that this week is going to be alot more hectic and wild than most would have us believe. My feel is that there is a great deal of money sitting on the sidelines that will not go into bonds, but will go to the traditional store of value - the metals.

People have been living longer, the US population is getting older. There are a great many who have heard all the new wave, everything is rosy delusions from politicians and the media.

The Mutual Funds are behind the eight ball. They have to do something, a fractional movement by them into the metals arena would have a huge impact on upward prices. Coins, bullion, mining shares, all go up.

The information age, and that is what this last ten or so years should be called.

I say people from the age that never dies, the knowledge age win out against the information age.

The metals will rise this week, and I stick to my $400 by December gold if not sooner and higher by then. And I revise my Dow opinion to one of simply the Dow by Christmas - clanked.

To all: Some of us have long investments in gold, silver or goldstocks ( hopefully not leveraged ) . Me included. What else can AG throw at the gold market after this whopper with the sale of 1400 tonnes of Swiss gold -- in the next century -- if ever? Is gold going to go lower if the dollar tanks? Probably -- opinions?

Donald: I am very relieved that was not you, but an Astrological quote from someone else. No doubt he will be joining Sollog on some ( safe? ) mountain top. Ever notice how mountain tops are commonly scarred by all those lightning strikes? Hope you enjoyed my post anyway!

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

My charts show Gold stocks were in motion to the Upside,
but targeted and shot out if the sky, with laser precision!
This was a coordinated attack, presumably to enhance the
Fiat Dollar. Once again it makes clear that we are in a Gold
vs Paper War and that all the weapons are on the other side.
Still 100% long but now doubt my Sanity!

JTF: Your question about the future of the U.S. Dollar. In the past I have always felt that the dollar will tend to remain strong for the wrong reasons. They are in demand to meet dollar denominated debt repayments. During a deflation and financial market meltdown those who remain whole will find their dollars increasing in value as the dollars of the defaulted debtors disappear. In other words M3 and M2 will be declining. As surplus goods flood the world, at ever lower prices, purchasing power of still intact dollar holders increases even more.

That all ends at the end of deflation when political forces decide to "do something" and reinflate. For those young enough, and still intact, it is probably a time to consider leverage for major purchases of farmland, real estate and abandoned production capacity.

Schippi: Our forces have been shot out of the sky with laser guided missles -- a selective strike! By none other than our White Knight, who is trying to keep the market and the dollar intact! But -- after Friday's whopper about the Swiss gold sales -- what will it be next week? I don't have a clue what else he's got in his arsenal -- but I do know that the days of the paper assets are numbered, and gold will come back in a big way! Perhaps our AG now has the forces of the ECU/EMU behind him at the moment. It will be a different story I think, when the Europeans no longer care how strong the dollar is. I wish I knew what to do, except sit on the sidelines and buy on the dips. It may not be long before we reach a pre-1980 low in gold! But --- if we do, the upside rise will be explosive!

My sincere congratulations to those on this site -- EB, RJ, and yes Hepcat -- who projected this decline in advance. I had expected some additional weakness, but nothing like Friday's big smash.

Bob: I have reluctantly concluded you are right on the money ( pun intended ) about the lack of transparency and a level playing field in the gold market. I am now convinced the primary reason gold did well in 1993 was the big long position established then by Soros and other deep pocketed speculators. But the heavy hitters have been on the short side for years now. Unless we get some BIG MONEY on the long side, this gold bear probably will persist until either:

A ) Much of the mining industry closes down. or

B ) The looming bear market in global financial assets grows much worse.

Until the number of gold miners shrinks dramatically through mergers and consolidations and an effective cartel is formed, they will remain at the mercy of the CBs and the well financed gold shorts.

Up until last week nobody was talking up gold. Now there are several saying 5% - 10% of a portfoilo should be in gold.

You do the numbers, what happens when this block of money moves into the metals.

Nick@Aussie: Yours at 12:29. Well said. That is the way it is going to be. I smell it too, since early July it has had a different flavor. If we are wrong and there is another run-up it will be even worse. We at Kitco have to stay intact to pick up the pieces. We seem to be the only people on the planet who understand what is happening. It will be best not to gloat when it is over. For your own safety, don't say a word.

The San Francisco Chronicle published a variation of the bullish gold story by Pierre Belec ( posted by Carl at 11:20 ) in the business section today. Could the mainstream press have a change of heart re gold reporting? The article was very bullish.

George,Another,DA,
I have heard rumors that Venezulia's non joint venture producers of oil may be thinking over a $+gold pricing plan. Meetings were held last week with all US dealers and dist of V oil products. What effect do you feel this would have one the dollar, and on gold.

How the US financial markets may crash
http://home1.pacific.net.sg/~viclim/inv00011.htm

Asian downfall: key dates
Hong Kong's drop is the latest event in a number of Asian financial crises
http://cnnfn.com/markets/9710/23/chronology_wg/

Heeding History
How to spot a market slide before it occurs
http://www.pixi.com/~marvel/code/heeding.htm

DOW 8000
If the stock market is reaching a Grand Supercycle top at Dow 8000, then the odds are that we are now facing the most negative shock ( s ) in human history.
http://nw3.nai.net/~virtual/sot/dow8000.htm

"The Onion PARADOX" peels yet another layer away from the eventual truth of the LONDON BULLION MARKETING ASSOCIATION...:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron1026.html

Is it possible to post from the frames version?

He is left with no choice. The longer this goes the worse the pain later. Stakes are high at this juncture let alone letting it go any further. You can bet on a large correction in equities.

Re G.S. Cole comment, I agree. As
long as the CBs can clobber gold by
merely threatening to sell, gold will
go nowhere. They have succeeded in
programming the world that paper is
king. In fact, this latest demonstration
of their power confirms and magnifies
their ability to do it again next time.
Investors of all types will become even more
skittish about gold stocks/bullion.
"Another" is correct in saying
that at some point, their selling will
back-fire, but we certainly arent
there yet. It is interesting to note
how quickly and decisively the CBs
acted this time, definitely a concerted effort,
indicating serious concern for global
financial markets.
What puzzles me is how PT/PA are also
being held down, no overhanging
stockpiles, an apparently real supply
deficit, legitimate and rising
industrial demand, and still the
prices seem to move on nothing more
than fund manipulation.
Gold gets whacked, and it takes out
the white metals as well, it doesnt make
much sense.

Any opinions on shorting the stock. I thinking about purchasing leap puts on the stock. Need to do some more research but it is almost sitting on it's all time high. No one wants to risk shorting it because it's a high flyer, but I believe it's seen it's best days.

The swiss said they COULD sell their gold in !1999. They DID NOT sell anything yet and are not sure if they will. Lets take that to an extreme: The CBs all say we may sell gold in the future. BIG DEAL, I may sell my gold stock, I may short microsoft, I may do ... you get the picture. The drop of 16 dollars was totally out of proportion to the magnitude of the announcement. If the price is being manipulated by short sellers, the game has to end soon because gold has taken its lumps and the stocks are next to get hit. The value of all doesent even add up to the value of a few big cap stocks, so it it very likley us bit players at Kitco are being manipulated by a Sumitomo-type inside job. In relation to the cash floating around the stock market, gold is a little fellow.

It's like listening and watching your friends talk and the final out come is nothing ever happens. Just more Goble De Goop.

I'll bet a bunch of Swiss insiders said, "Hey, ya wanna make a billion ?, lets load up on shorts at 323, make a crazy announcement, something to do with the Holocaust, jews, gold being worthless, yeah, something that will get everyone excited !!. Well make a killing when it drops. And next week, will load up on puts at 308, and say we have revised our strategy and are going to back 60 % of our currency with gold, in light of 'paper inflation'". Lets put it this way, if you have held long on gold stocks for a while now, you have lost money, period. So what are you going to do, either take a loss now at the bottom or near bottom, or gold on and pee at the makert manipulators ??. If I go down, I go down with my guns blazing dammit, I'll hold even if gold hits 200 or 100, or until people have to pay people to hold it for them.

Nick, Could you repost your 13:59. I am intrested in your view but I get an error.

Greed is an incredible, motivating emotion, couple it with fear, add in all the talk about the market being over-valued and the stampede has to go somewhere and it can't all go into bonds. Let's see........

$250 gold maybe, $200 gold very unlikely and $100 gold almost impossible unless mining costs drop dramatically. Downside on gold is about $50 max unless a depression ensues and takes it down further, which could otherwise drive it up.

All of Switzerland's gold at market value is only equal to 10% of their GDP. Selling it off
would make as much sense as a person canceling the fire insurance on his house to save
money. I think the Swiss voters will have more brains than their irrationally exuberant CB
officials.

Anybody know when Globex opens?

the paper-tiger has been gorging on the
feds' feed for too long. the very food
being fed was in and of it-self a poison.
who could have imagined that the very means
for paper to SEEM more than it really is- ( speculators ) -ink-----
would actually cause its' demise. what happened
in the years leading up to the great crash?
the fed increased the money suppply by over 40%.
what has the fed done in the last few years?
how easy is it to get a credit card?
look at the parallels. look at the multiples
being applied to equities relative to their true
value as opposed to their SPECULATED value. this
scenario is identical and the past can tell what to
expect in the future!

5 days and counting.......who said that?

the laws of relativity also are another way to see
the future.

"for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction."
s---in

every-thing is relative and tied together regardless of
pressure from external forces ( man ) ..........nature rules

cycles of stasis followed by flux and chaos...this is normal......
the pendulum cuts both ways, always.


cherokee!;'----looking-for-the-ents........bilbo-where-is-dora???

let the bidding begin...Tuesday is the big day........anyone with a c.ball out there.

Nick@Aussie:

Your 12:29 post brilliantly encpasulates the gist of your 'conversations' & feelings here in the last weeks. Thank you for that. I have printed it out so that my other [ slightly better?] half can read it.

Cash will come out in the next few days, except [woman's logic] I think I will leave an overdraft in the bank?

There is definitely a sense of a 'build-up' , even in many of my friends, who have no interest in financial markets. It's heart-warming that you are concerned for your loved ones' security- it's hard for women or children to understand when there's a financial crisis.

Thank you again- much appreciated!

anybody-----

when is bald-headed al green-spam due
to hold court again?

time to buy some more euro-dollar puts! these
puppies are as cheap as gold calls!!!!!!!

Rejoice gold investors. My long awaited buy signal has just been reached. George Cole has apparently given up hope for the bull which has only just started.

Donald, JTF-

You have to admit that was a pretty impressive post, Donald!!

I thought " There's NOTHING he doesn't know about!!" {:-}} Did you think so too, JTF? I liked your answer.

The right brain needs some diversion in order to balance the hemispheres again after the heaviness of the past week. Well done!!

A 'joytishi' is a Vedic Astrologer . I never decry/promote that which I have not investigated myself, but I have heard that Vedic astrology is the most efficient of the predictive side of astrology. We'll just have to wait and see, won't we? There was not much "joy' in that particular article, was there?!!

Colleen, Donald: Donald, I was impressed, I must admit, since I would not have a clue how to do this. I would not want to be this Vedic Astrologer however -- he must lead a gloomy life!
Colleen -- You know something about Astrology. Do you know of a book or Web site that compares the different forms of Astrology -- and hopefully shows which ones work better - statistically. Or a connection to cycles analysis, because that I can understand. There are too many flavors for me even to begin to understand this. At the moment I am only looking for the Investment side of things. However, it is clear that there is much more to Astrology than AstroInvestment. Eventually I want to know more about this topic, but I need something with "teeth" in it first. Ie, what works with statistical analysis -- probability of being correct, etc.
I have E. Alan Meece's book "Horoscope for the New Millenium" which is interesting, and much more balanced than Donald's post. Unfortunately this text also has no "teeth" in it.

I am 30 % gold, 60 % cash, 10 % turnaround situations. What are you guys in ?

Thats 30 % gold STOCKS, not the physcial stuff.

They won't sell, it's spin-doctoring bordering on lying.
No longer is it a Swiss "announcement", now it was the "experts"...

Experts urge Swiss to slash gold reserves
BERN, Oct 25 ( AFP ) - Experts appointed by the Swiss government
have recommended slashing the country's gold reserves by half, that
is roughly by 1,400 tonnes, it was learned Saturday.
The experts from the Swiss National Bank ( BNS ) and the finance
ministry have been charged with reforming a constitutional monetary
provision dating from 1848 which still officially links the value of
the Swiss franc to that of gold.
However this standard no longer holds good since the Swiss franc
now floats like most other currencies.
By cutting the link between the Swiss franc and gold and by
reducing currently undervalued gold reserves to bring their value
more into line with the market value, the experts said the reserves
of gold held by the central bank could be cut by up to 1,400
tonnes.
This surplus gold could sold to reduce the budget deficit, the
experts suggested, according to press reports.
Finance Minister Kaspar Villiger and the BNS had reacted
negatively to the proposals, the reports said. Villiger said only
that the government needed several hundred tonnes of gold to set up
a humanitarian fund of seven billion Swiss francs ( almost five
billion dollars ) .
The government announced the creation of the fund at the
beginning of this year in response to criticism over Switzerland's
role during the Nazi era and its alleged failure to give up money
deposited by Jews and others who later perished in Nazi death
camps.
The project which has provoked criticism in Switzerland is to be
put to a referendum.

Land prices drop in Asia amid currency crisis: report

TOKYO, Oct 26 ( AFP ) - Land prices in Thailand, Singapore and
Malaysia have plunged amid the currency crisis in the region, the
Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported Sunday.
Since July, when the Thai baht was floated at the onset of the
economic crisis, land prices in Thailand have fallen 10 percent
from a year earlier, the newspaper said.
Office renta in Bangkok dropped 5.7 percent in late June, and
have since showed a "double-digit decline" compared to a year
earlier, a local real estate broker was quoted by the business daily
as saying.
The newspaper warned that the land price decline in Thailand
would further deteriorate the country's bad loan problem.
In Manila's business district of Makati, the price per
square-meter ( 10.76-square-foot ) was trading recently between
300,000 and 400,000 pesos ( 8,500 and 11,400 dollars ) , down from a
high of 467,000 at the end of last year, the daily said.
"There has been almost no trade since the currency crisis," a
Philippine real estate industry source said.
In Singapore, house prices have dropped three-to-seven percent
over the past three months, hit by the crisis as well as the
government's introduction of restrictive measures on land trade, it
said.

After currency typhoon, more storm clouds gather for Hong Kong

HONG KONG, Oct 26 ( AFP ) - Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief
executive Joseph Yam must be the envy of central bank chiefs across
Asia for emerging from his currency battle unscathed.
They all know however that the war is not over yet.
Technically, economically and politically, Hong Kong's "peg" --
a fixed parity of 7.80 Hong Kong dollars to the US dollar -- is
incomparably stronger than the arrangements to fix the value of the
Thai baht, the Malaysian ringgit and the Indonesian rupiah.
The Southeast Asian currencies have caved in to market
onslaughts since July.

Deutsche Bank said to have defrauded government of billions in tax

BONN, Oct 25 ( AFP ) - Germany's biggest private bank, the
Deutsche Bank is alleged to have cheated the tax system of billions
of marks ( dollars ) since 1985, according to a report in Der Spiegel
magazine, which goes on sale Monday.
Der Spiegel, which cited a report from the federal finance
bureau, said the Deutsche Bank had not received a regulation full
tax statement since 1985. A senior tax inspector who had been about
to open an investigation in 1995 into the bank's fiscal situation
was ordered not to proceed with the probe, the magazine said.
The report said the official had lodged a legal complaint
against the decision.

Like Carl, can anyone advise when Globex opens today Sunday basis New York time. I would much appreciate this . . .

Barclays eyes Credit Lyonnais purchase

LONDON, Oct 26 ( AFP ) - Britain's Barclays Bank is considering
buying up France's biggest public bank, the debt-ridden Credit
Lyonnais, to form a trans-European superbank, The Sunday Times
newspaper reported.
According to the paper, talks have been going on for the past
several months between the two financial institutions with a view to
Credit Lyonnais' scheduled privatisation in 1999 and the imminent
opening of Europe's banking sector.
Barclays' chief, Martin Taylor, is convinced the next century
will be dominated by only a few giant banking corporations which
result from cross-border mergers, the article said.
Credit Lyonnais is currently going through restructuring
following a state-funded bail-out brought on by several risky
investments up to 1992.
The president of the French bank, Jean Peyrelevade, said last
month that among the post-privatisation scenarios Credit Lyonnais
was considering was "something that has never been done until now --
a cross-border structural alliance."

Does anyone know why Royal Oak held up so well last friday? Also does anyone know what Precther from the elliot wave has to say about market and gold?, I bought his book about 2 years ago and Im still on the beach and there is no waves in sight. Thanks

Hi JTF!

It is the most fascinating study- enriched my life enormously over the last 20 years. I was led into History, Geography, Philosophy, Psychology, to name but a few areas needed, and landed up at University at a mature age. Even had to knuckle down to logarithms in the old days. Now it's good to have computers! It helped tremendously in bringing up my four magnificent children- in my understanding of where they were 'at', so to speak.

Books-- There are many books on the subject- I gave 99% of my books away to a couple of youngsters last year, so have nothing to which to refer. Stephen Arroyo springs to mind when I think of cycles, and perhaps Tad Mann. Perhaps Mike Sheller can help with some other. Financial astrology= Michael Munkansky? Ray Merriman?

I must say though, that it's an extensive and very hard study, hence my admiration and respect for someone of Mike's calibre. One cannot confuse 'pop' astrology as seen in the papers/magazines, which is real 'hog-wash', with the type of astrology practised by Mike and I think, Poor-boys. I do have [somewhere, now that I'm spread between 3 large ppties] some books on Financial astrology, and if I can find them, will send them to you, if you so wish.

Time for bed- big day tomorrow at the bank. I shall be walking out of there with 'cubed boobs'!!

GSC was right back in July..it is the battle royal and we have ringside seats at Kitco...GO GOLD!!!

Bruised Asian markets prepare for more body blows
HONG KONG, Oct 26 ( AFP ) - Bruised Asian markets Sunday prepared
for another flurry of body blows, after a regional financial crisis
spread to Hong Kong and Wall Street suffered another drop.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index finished Friday some 40 percent down
from its record highs of mid-August, while the Dow Jones closed the
week down 1.68 percent in response.
Southeast Asia's malaise also floated further north, bringing
chaos to Tokyo and South Korea where the already shaky market was
hit by the withdrawl of foreign funds.
Seoul's benchmark Composite Stock Price Index closed Saturday
down 22.44 points, or 3.93 percent, at 548.47, a day after diving
more than five percent in a record single session fall.
"There is a strong possibility that share prices will fall
further in the weeks ahead because of continuing jitters over the
currency turmoil and the carnage on overseas markets," said Ko
Soon-Shik of LG Securities.

TED More Cck-up than Hook-up Communications?

kiwi G'day Mate are you truly nocturnal or do ya live in a different time zone? Give them heaps...

Nick @ Aussie 12:29 Great Post. In the hall of fame. Steady as she goes. Really appreciating your salty tales. Reminds me of stories of my pa. At sea all his life.

JTF - ALL
Inspired!
*There are many things hidden in the backwaters of humankind*

and we shall be exploring their depths as we approach the millenium. Just watch.. Crazy prophecies, wierd alchemies, how much of a stretch, scientifically speaking is alchemy anway?

Now, I see that you have some information on what might or might not be cold fusion. It is a pity that we currently have no way of accessing history... and that speaks volumes... because cold fusion has been discussed here on more than one occasion. I raised the question again on May 08 after seeing a BBC documentary alleging replicating Pons and Fleishman. Anyway, there were several robust replies full of info from D.A. & Andy. My enquiry was along the line of the use of Palladium Hepcatalysts just before Palladium started rocketing ( that may be more wishful memory than accurate )

aurator

holidays-R-us

While the world wakes up to financial chaos, New Zealand goes on holiday.

I gotta do something about the danged slugs in the garden

What financial panic?

Carl, Smithy: Panda will know for sure but it seems to me it is 6PM NY time, 5PM Central

9610: I not have not given up. In fact, with world financial markets starting to tank, the immensely powerful interests now blasting gold may soon lose control. But short-term the yellow probably fall under $300 before this bear ends. As I said a few days ago, I want to buy CHEAP.

Still polling - - Globex opening time today...?

I'm amused by the posts about this market "crash" and the "volatility" we've been seeing. Let's look at the basic facts for a moment. Looking at the broad market, The S & P 500 ended this week with a LESS than ONE THIRD of ONE POINT loss. The Nasdaq is up almost 28% in 52 weeks. The S & P up 27%. The DOW up alomst 20%. Not exactly a "crash" pattern. As to volatility we keep hearing so much ( bogus ) information about. Volatility remains within a single standard deviation of historical Norms. Again, statistically insignifigant. Soory folks, boring but true.

Now for a REAL crash, let's look at the price of Gold. Down around 16% in a year. 22% down in 2 years. Crashed $14 ( approx. 4% ) in ONE day. Now THERE is a true market crash in something. A genuine PATTERN of complete meltdown, and one that threatens to continue.

Asian crises problems? Sure. Is it helping Gold? The answer is obvious regardless of whether manipulation is ocurring. Is it "crashing" our stock market? Hardly. When we start dealing in facts instead of myths, people may pay attention to "Gold Bug" analysts.

10/26/97 .... "Paul Revere" lives :
appalling truth
appalled as I am, I cannot resist....this:
( Paul Revere lives: )
( pretensions abound: )
here is a revised ( e-mail ) 'wake-up' call,
for the citizens of the world:

"... I would not be so concerned with the current 'crash & confusion' - reigning in precious
metals markets.....as with the unfolding confusion & crash - in world-wide stock-markets,
including the U.S. Stock-Markets..... unfolding.

This is a buying opportunity, without precedence, in this
century -- for economic students, and investors -- especially for those with an understanding of
basic economics -- which includes the Austrian School of Ludwig Von Mises, and which also
includes the role of gold & silver, in money and banking.

The recent Swiss Bank 'news'... of "selling"/mobilizing 50% of their gold reserves" has been
orchestrated to coincide with the currency/market turmoil/malaise, & cancer -- that first started
with the "Asian Tigers", and now includes Hong Kong.

The cancer is spreading, relentlessly.

"It" --- the Swiss Nat'l Bank's proposed "mobilization" of gold reserves, is
nothing more than 'media-hype' -- the proverbial finger - stuck ... in the
dike ... as a feeble, last-ditch effort to stem the ensuing flood --- of a
credit/debt structured economic world, approaching "melt-down" .

That is to say - ..... the day of reckoning .... is near at hand.
The 'center-post' ( of the "tent" {{see below}} ) ... ( -the US Dollar/currency, & the U.S.
economy/markets ) ... are sensing the encroaching and ominous threat, and know ....
that their -- day of reckoning -- is inevitable, and coming due.

Europe's help has been enlisted in this emergency --- as the Swiss Bank's announced
"sale" --- a "consideration" --- and a "proposal" --- of "possibly" "mobilizing"
( -not selling ) their gold reserves.... ( "a couple years in the future" ) , .... --
-- "" up to 50% of them ...... ( supposedly ) .... . ""

This feigned & fake - effort is hoped for, yearned for, by the power-brokers that be.
It is by OUR collective default, that 'they' are, in fact, the "power-brokers" -- the default is ours --
all of us -- we, the freedom-loving men & women - around the globe.
For in truth, it takes - only - for evil to triumph -- that good men & women, do nothing.
Apathy & cynicism are our greatest enemies. What will the power-brokers do next, to feebly
attempt, to stem the tide of dawning truth -- the growing realization, and fear, awakening within
the multitude of working men & women?

Working, or just staying alive, in hope - of a better day:
on the streets of India,
and the plateaus of China;
on the shores, fields and hills of Australia & New Zealand,
and the plains of the Middle East;
in the heart of Africa,
and across the towns & tundras of the North;
all over the farms & favelas of the South,
as welll as the factories of Europe & Japan;
and everywhere in the techno-boomer land - of the U.S.A. ...?

What will they do, next, now ! -- to stem the dawning realization of the tired, poor, & hungry
masses --- teeming, and yearning -- to be true, and truely free?

For the faithful workers & entrepreneurs, & honest risk-takers,
north, south, east & west.... are waking up ! in this time .... -- to this vast, marauding, thief of the
"night" -- this thief of international currency blight..... with its hidden tax -- that robs the honest
millions among us; each of us as one - losing our effort, our energy, wealth & pay --- to the
broken contract of the currency & interest-rate manipulators, who we have surrendered
ourselves to .... -- that they might rule us, in this woe-begotten day.

The U.S. Dollar/currency has been the 'center-post' of this tarnished "tent", of the international
economic & political world, for several generations now. ( See below. )

The vulnerability, and the hidden cancer of the U.S. economy are becoming evident & clear, to
millions, around the world. Their is an unsustainable - foundation of rot, and edifice of pretense;
within the modern financial & banking institutions. These, are built upon a "fractional-reserve
banking system" -- a system of institutions that are built upon the premise of control,
manipulation, & power. It is a system held together by secrets & lies, and wishful thinking.

It is a financilal, investment, banking & world-political system, without any, sound, foundation.
This world-wide agreed-upon "fractional-reserve banking system", is leading the modern world
....into .... a 'pit' --- into a crippled world - of dependency ... where 'the few', will control 'the
many' -- where 'the few' - will hold the wealth, power & dictates; and where 'the many' - will
"obey" & suffer.

We are, all of us, embarked on this course, with an economic structure, dependent on national
political self-interest, as it collides with international realities....in an earth-rending game of 'one-
up's-manship'. ..... This current time in history, is but one more version of : "I win/you lose".
What will it take, to teach us all, that there is only one game: "I win/You win" ( too ) . ?!

International economic balance, and agreement -- on a sound, universally accepted medium of
exchange and store of value, will ultimately replace, the current collusion of back-room
bickering, national self-interest & expediency, among the power-brokers of the world.

The tiring edifice, and crumbling structure - of the current economic & investment world; can only
be further sustained - by their agreed-upon continuation of, and dedication to - the sustained
mushrooming of ..... credit/DEBT .

The ensuing - international monetary, financial, & economic/political - Day of reckoning ( -when
the "piper must be paid ) ; - and the resulting & inevitable Panic ( - tho it may be postponed ) ; -- ...
are inevitable.

The international economic monetary & financial 'system' -- based on a politically
expedient/opportunistic, and corrupt, fractional-reserve banking system -- is rotting, from within.

Although it has evolved for a half-century or more, it is solely dedicated to the endless pursuit of
political manipulation/power & control. It has orchestrated modern civilization's head-long pursuit
into 'materialism-without-limits'.

Telling, by-products, of this world-wide insanity; are the desecration & poisoning --- of the earth,
and --- of ourselves.


The current status-quo, is sustained by the blind leading the blind -- the federal reserve, politcal
& financial/investment authorities & experts......are all to eager to lead the masses -- we - the
lemmings -- over the next cliff.

The current investment & economic climate is built on wishful-thinking . The almost unanimous
agreement and optimism, regarding the U.S. stock-market & economy, has been, and continues
to be, "assured", predicted, and "promised" ....- by most of the same prognosticators/brokers,
financial analysts, investment bankers, and political 'magicians' -- who in 1982-'84: were
preaching stock-market 'gloom & doom'.

The U.S. Stock-Market ( s ) today, are forming/have formed a hyperbolic curve. Hyperbolic curves
always reach their point of "infinity" -- their "point of no return". This ... is nothing more than a
"law of nature" ... coming 'full-circle'...... no matter what the authorities & experts say, or do.

As this point of "infinity" is reached .... there will be an unfolding period, ushering in, as --
"economic winter" .

Students and investors, interested in a basic understanding of economics, would do well to
remember a movie/film of the last decade or so, titled -- "Being There"...in which, the principle
character, is a gardener; who advised the President of the U.S., that the common-sense reality-
of-fact IS ( that ) ...: "The economy must have it's seasons, too . -- spring, summer, fall, and ...
WINTER."

Every conceivable stop-gap measure of manipulation ....
by government & monetary authorities, as heralded by the media's
'world-wide press', will do everything they can, to keep this monetary picture of pretended
economic health and well-being, from revealing it's true, 'hidden' ... "cancer" -- an out-of-control,
world-wide credit/debt-structure..... as it now begins its inevitable 'melt-down'.

To postpone this monetary cancer and economic upheaval -- pretending to 'hold it in remission' -
- -- the Swiss Nat'l Bank has been called upon ... to put it's finger in the dike, of the dam --- that
ultimately --- has-to --- give-way ( -collapse ) .

{{'mother-nature' always has its way.....sooner, or later}}

The continued spread of currency cancer, and economic disintegration, is accelerating. The dam
is indeed, giving way. One need but witness this past week's world-wide investment markets'
volatility and turmoil .... -- which is but a clue, of the approaching - 'day of reckoning'.

Nothing, no-one -- not even, any collective world-wide powers-that-be -- with all their
collaborative efforts ---can stop ....this looming ..... juggernaut.

1998 will be the first chapter of the beginning, of the end.
And there will be a new beginning, that is already birthing, and underway. There will be another
time, in this eternal time. It will be a time for all of us, to accept one another, to love and
appreciate this simple, humble, mighty, beautiful earth. And we will live in peaceful harmony,
and in tune. And we will work, till - resting, loving, singing & dancing -- all of us, in rhythm --
agreeing to the love, and to be that love....the love -- that is beating, in our universal hearts.


------------------------------__________________
Date: Sat Oct 25 1997 20:27
David ( goldfevr@pacbell.net ) ID#269218:
( reference my http://www.kitco.com post, of 9/27/97 16:48, : )

'WHEN THE TENT COLLAPSES' : : )

"When the 'tent' collapses... ( -'tent' - the U.S.
dollar/markets/economy )
"it will not be the center-post... ( - U.S. stock-market )
"that goes first;
"it will be the 'side-posts' ... ( - So. Amer. & Europe ) ,
"and even the 'stakes' ... ( - the 'Asian Tigers' ) .
...
etc.

Sincerely yours,
David Blair Macrory
San Diego, CA

Digdeep: I had a post on Royal Oak about 11AM, noonish today. Prechter is very tentative bullish on the Dow. He says he will turn bearish on a drop below 7580. He is bearish on gold unless it breaks above $320. Prechter has been calling for gold at $100-200 since sometime in 1981.

Colleen: I would be interested in any books you think worth reading! I'm trying to find something factual, not necessarily at this point how to do Astrology -- but more on the lines of critical analysis.
Guess you liked my comment about sitting on the mountain! I've always wondered about all those gurus sitting on the mountaintops -- how they avoided getting struck by lightning, or being blown away by a storm! I almost froze solid hiking on the top of Mt Washinton years ago before I knew better. Was with my Dad, who clearly didn't, for all of his knowledge. Went by several memorial cairns, covering the bones of less fortunate tourists. The lodge had a little wire box near the fireplace with bones in it -- to scare the tourists, I guess! Would have been more effective to place the display at the bottom of the Mountain, not at the top!

Thanks Donald re Globex. You are the salt of the earth.

Oldman called 'em prophesies. Well, I am going to make one - that we see dramatic action tomorrow on the Dow on the downside. I have had the date up my sleeve for a few weeks now.

In the meantime ( with apologies to Tortfeasor ) , what can a goose do that a duck can't do, and that a lawyer should do?

Stick his bill up his ass.

Umm now I understand. The Astrology in the mass media is bogus but the "serious" Astrology is a great predictive tool. I love it! Loved SHeller's earlier post too about the Full Moon, the New Moon and thier "powerful" impact which EVENTUALLY ( within 30 days or so ) cause major upheavels in financial markets. Gawwwd this site is getting to be my favorite comedy site.

You know folks. When people in the "mainstream" of the investment world start thinking Gold and tune in for the first time to this Site, or the "Gold Digest" for example, what will greet them? Such "Serious analysis" as the "Astrological Investor" and the typical Puetzeske Gloom and Doom, crash coming next week ( for 10 straight years with no "hit" yet ) , predictions. What will these folks think? That GoldBugs are a group that should be taken seriously? They'll laugh themselves silly and say, "Yeah, guess nothing much has changed, Gold really IS a dead investment vehicle if this iss the kind of analysis being done".

You want to be taken seriously? Do some serious work. Put the "Vedic, crystal, meditation, wishfull Holistic thinking, Tantric, AromaGoldictherapy", aside and do some real research. Then maybe someone in the "real world" will start to take notice.

Bill Buckler, I hope it's OK for me to do this.
From the latest issue of Privateer:
"Finally, there is the discredited alternative investment - Gold. The savageness of the Friday sell-off is the best illustration possible of the seriousness of the situation facing the paper markets. The July sell off led to an increased physical demand. This sell off will too. Gold has very suddenly become a great bargain in Hong Kong. In Asian nations whose currencies have been savaged, Gold has instantly become more affordable. The fundamental choice has always been between Gold and the U.S. Dollar Gold is now tempting to any investor with even an inkling of the true nature of the situation. If it goes lower, it will become more tempting. In the face of mounting financial carnage all around, Rubin and Greenspan must hold up the market, mop up excess liquidity flowing into U.S. debt markets, control U.S. interest rates, and hold down the Gold price. Not even Hercules could do all that!"

Digdeep: Here is mine. There is another at 11:12AM
Gold is so cheap that Royal Oak Mines, a Washington state gold producer, issued a press
release
earlier this week saying that its stock trades at a 46 percent discount to the value of just one
of its
four mines. Yesterday it closed at $2.50, up 6 cents.

"...you are like a HURRICANE, there's calm in your eyes...."

Ahhh, the peaceful Kitco returns, looking out all around at the roiling storm outside the circle.

Nick : What a great post. Yes, I also, project the state of economic being, as you have stated " Readings are at extremes everywhere" Regarding: "Shipshape & Batten the hatches" you made mention to the fact:
" crew would be sober and bilge's would be pumped"

I suggest the economic crew on Wall Street, and at the World Central Banks, are not sober, they are on legal and illegal drugs. No, this is not 1929, and as such, will have a life of it's own, the common mark, reference, between 1997 and 1929, is the fact of the powerful wanting more power. Greed, is not only in the domain of the average citizen, it is much more motivating among the world's powerful individual's, and also, amongst those individual's in certain world government's, and Corporate bureaucracies. Yes, a storm is coming, we must take the time, and use your intuition. We can, if we expect that the economic readings are at their extremes. We can use our sensory mechanisms, to smell, feel, and sense the approching storm. Just as you have described your time at sea.
Thanks, Take care.

Thanks for your comments. Maybe this will be the start of a real discussion using facts rather than what often seems to be wishful thinking concerning the direction of the price of gold.

JTF:
I was lucky enough to travel in and work with the mainland Chinese in the late 70's and early 80's. I was extremely impressed with them even though at that time the technology was sadly antiquated. They had their plans for rejuvinating Shanghai and as far as I am concerned they have continued to forcefuly move in that direction. Shanghai will be the trading center for China not Hong Kong. ( IMHO )

Rueters - A New Premium program was announced today by a consortium of major Oil companies. Spokesmen from Shell, Union 76, Standard Oil, and BP announced that they will be minting Gold medallions ( 1 ounce each ) , to be given away with each fill up of Gas. The medallions will feature a scene to commemorate the Gulf war. An American soldier, making a victory salute while stepping on an Iraqui "elite forces" officer in full surrender.

When questioned about the impact on profits of this new program, Oil company spokesmen stated that with present trends, Gold should soon be cheaper than Steel or Copper for medallion minting, and would be easier to use because it's softer. When pressed further they stated that if the price failed to drop to reasonable levels of .50 cents a pound or so, they "knew some people" that could help them depress the price to acceptable levels.

"We do however, see a potential supply problem". The oil complanies stated. He went on to elaborate that the only problem foreseen by the consortium was availability of Gold supplies due to the competition with McDonalds who plans a similar program of Gold Meddalion minting with Disney figures to be given away with "Happy Meals".

Puetz: Agree that the stock market is going a lot lower, but don't count on a crash the next few weeks. Despite the Dow's 132 point drop Friday, there were not that many new lows, and declines outnumbered advances just modestly.

But take heart! The longer the market remains at these inflated levels, the bigger the ultimate decline.

With regard to gold we would all do well to remember Glenn's statement that each month the yellow languishes in the doldrums, the upside when the bear ends climbs another $30.

Haystack, and your contribution to this site has been?

Thanks Haystack. I agree. between wishful thinking, bogus "facts", mythology based "analysis", and a constant stream of similar such nonsense, it'll be difficult for true GoldBugs to ever convince the investment populace at large to take them seriously.

Personally, I'd like to see a renewed Bull market in the metals, but as long as the Sheller's and Puetze's, Myth promoters, Wishful thinkers, and Conspiracy theorists of the world are given credibility by the rest of the "GoldBug" community, all GoldBug's will be smeared with the same "whacko, not to be taken seriously" brush.

It's too bad, but I see little hope for Gold when this is the kind of "analysis" that people hold on to.

David: Re your Paul Revere. There is a lot of truth in what you say but those of us who have abused credit, opting for instant gratification rather than saving, are partly to blame for this mess. I know it often seemed stupid to save when inflation was eating away the purchasing power of your money. But buying junk on credit at 20+% compounding has been even more stupid.

LGB: One of the top traders in the US is a financial astrologer -- won a contest with about fourteen other traders. When I find the web site I will post it for you. I thought this was nonsense also, until I saw someone make money with it. You have to be an good trader anyway -- financial astrology just gives one a boost. I have learned over the years not to ridicule something I don't understand -- if there is truth to whatever it is -- it will come out. I certainly don't use anything I don't understand, and for that reason I don't use financial astrology. But I do know it can be used. Look at the Astrikos site, which has the Bradley siderograph.

More on the Rothchild connection...
http://home1.pacific.net.sg/~viclim/
( scroll down to the two part article "The Secret Financial Network Behind George Soros" )

Donald:
Thanks for the info on RYO. I guess I can put Precther's book in the attic with Ravi Batra and Harry Figgie!.

Why am I such a HORSES ASS you might ask???? Why must I comment on everything and lead all you 'lemmings' at KITCO to believe that I know ALL??? Stay tuned for my next posts and I will let you know. GAWD! I love to be a HORSES ASS!!!!!! I am good at it by GAWD!!

horses ass
horses ass
yes I am a
horses ASS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I made $3200 on the stock market in ONE DAY being a horses ASS
I made ooodles of money by NOT cheating at the poker table because I am a HORSES ASS
GAWD I LOVE THIS KITCO SITE BECAUSE I CAN SHOW YOU ALL WHAT I AM......THAT'S RIGHT.......A HORSES.......

Prick, re your 16:42. Haystack's contribution to the site has been to lend a vote of confidence for areturn to rational thought, a desire for genuine analysis, a return to critical thinking and away from Medieval VooDoo nonsense. As such his contribution is far more valuable to the site, and in the long run could be far more bullish for GOLD, than all of Sheller's and Puetze's hundreds of posts combined. It means that there MAY be one or two lurkers out there thinkking of investing in Gold...if only they can find a reason that doesn't involve fairy tales.

lurky, we maybe in therapy but we're not crazy...perhaps it's just all of "them" and we're the only ones seeing things as they are.
Do you honestly believe there is no systemis risk in the financial sytem as it stands?
On the fringes you catch the first glimpse of dawn.

Dear Ass. You speak more eloquently than I even could as to the mentality and neurological functioning of those who are most annoyed by my posts, and most dewey eyed by fairy tales and myths. What can I add to your post to better make my point? Not much! All readers should just read, and re-read your post over and over again to see what I've been talkiing about. I rest my case.

Actually Kiwi I DO believe there's risk in today's market. that's why I'm on the sidelines waiting for further weakness before I buy back in. At a P/E of 20 times earnings I wouldn't be an agressive buyer of stocks.

However, I'd much rather see factual analysis presented here ( and to the investment world at large ) than the whacko stuff we keep reading. It'll make the points trying to be made in much more credible fashion.

Lurker: Interesting posts about G Soros. It looks like the $1Trillion for the attack on Hong Kong comes from the coordinated efforts of several Hedge funds. If this is so -- HK does not have a chance. I do agree with you that if this is correct, this should be illegal. HK would not stand a chance even with another $150billion from mainland China! The next few weeks will determine if this is true.
Would certain Hedge funds risk world-wide financial collapse to do such things? Perhaps. If this is so, no wonder A Greenspan is so worried about all the runaway derivatives trading.

The point being here that no amount of technical analysis would suggest that there will be system wide failure imminent...unless you have some crystal ball mathematics?
What's needed is a sound thought process peppered with a little good gut instinct and as Einstein said "...imagination is worth more than intelligence..."

JTF re your 16:47. I have no doubt that an "Astrological Investor" won aa contest with some other analysts. Especially in today's market where little Old ladies "Investment clubs" also win such contests and beat the "conventional" analysts. It's a function of an incredible Bull market. A "Psychic Investor" could pull off the same feat I'm sure.

I keep making this point over and over again. Validity of an idea or concept requires a massive and scientific study, not anecdotal information ( which can never, yes NEVER be trusted ) . Just look at ANY scientific drug study. For every drug that works, you have a "control" group in which 25% ( or more ) of the "PLacebo" folks are SURE that their "new drug" worked all the wonders it was supposed to.

That concept extends across the board. I'll check the site you pointed me to. But I'll repeat. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. When someone demonstartes a genuine, unbiased, scientific study that indicates Astrology has some basis, I'll be the first to embrace it. That'll never happen of course, because the undrelying presepts are so totally non sensical. But if it ever does, I'll be happy to eat crow publicly.

Nick & Dave" was impressed with the literary aspect of your apocalyptic essays but as an
ancient Goldbug I have been reading of these dire warnings and predictions for nearly 40
years now. This is not to say that we won't one day have to pay for our sins ( economic
and otherwise ) but the truth is we spend most of our time on this planet in the large grey
area between our worst fears and greatest hopes. Maybe the wolf IS now at the door. But what disturbs me is the apparent glee
with which some of us anticipate "disaster". We should be careful what we wish for.
Sure next week will be interesting...like the week before and the week before that. I do
feel that a Bear IS knocking on Wall street's door if it hasn't already arrived. And I retain
my faith in Gold.

Portfolio Check Cash 46% Golds ( Mainly South Africans ) 28 Turnarounds 26%


Any students of the McClellan Oscillator out there?

I have an issue adjusted McClellan Oscillator for New York Exchange trading. This is more useful than the numbers others use since the issues traded daily have grown rapidly over the past twenty years or so. Without an adjustment for issues traded, you can't compare today's action to that of the past. ( I also have a McClellan Oscillator for Toronto mining issues )

Now to the point: The McClellan Summation index peaked at on July 17th at 3204. There is a pattern to watch for when the index exceeds 3000. This involves three waves down during the next 200 trading days or so. There is usually a short term decline about 25-45 days after the peak. This time it occured 31 days after the peak with a 5% decline. The next wave down in the summation index occurs between 80 and 125 days after the 3000+ summation peak. I expect this in late Nov/early Dec. The final wave down based upon this pattern will take place around May 1998. The rally from this level will tell us about 1998/1999.

Normally, these waves occur within rising markets overall, but can occur in a volatile pattern resulting in little upside over the 200 days. In addition, when the summation index remains stubbornly high during the first 60 days or so of the pattern, you can expect a violent
correction to force the summation index down. We are in that spot now. A 9 to 14% hit would not be unexpected.

Previous peaks in My issue adjusted Summation Index

Feb 10, 1967
Feb 9 , 1971
Feb 25, 1975
Feb 5, 1976
June 18,1980
Nov 11, 1982
Mar 15,1986
Mar 9, 1991
July 17,1997

I believe that it is too soon for a bear market, but perfect for a quick, scary correction that should be bought into. Pick you favourite stocks now for a shopping list.

On the gold front, I don't know any better than anyone where the low is. I do know that South Africans are at levels that have represented great bargains in the past. I can live with buy and hold with prices this low. Buy Kloof at $4.50, Harmony at $3.50 and Dreifontein at $6.00 . Then stop reading the news for a year.

A. Goose: Thanks for your post on Shanghai. My immediate family members are not eager to go back, even if much has changed .. too many memories.
Did you see Lurker's post? The 1 trillion to attack the HK dollar may be real -- a concerted effort of a group of Hedge funds. Mahathir may have a point if the web site Lurker posted is telling the truth. Won't take long to find out the truth, will it?

LGB: I agree with you that the Astrological stuff sorely needs scientific analysis. There is enought raw data with 100 years of the Dow to do this --
I do not use it -- because I do not understand it. When I do I will.

I was surprised that one of my gold stock holdings was unchanged on Friday in spite of gold crash. The stock was Royal Oak Mines. I called the Company and they had no real comment. What was interesting was the extraordinaryly heavy volume I guess someone big would buy all they could get from the gold panickers. They did say their new big mine is now fully funded from the govt and that with the copper offtake will produce gold at 79 per ounce. Not bad! Further they said Salomon Brothers issued a positive report on the company with respect to its new low cost mine. I did not find the report but given the stocks action I am sure that it must be true. They also told me they issued a report indicating the company is trading at a 46% discount to the value of its new Kemess project without reference to the company's other mines, properties or mineral rights which are apparently significant. Anybody know anything else?

A story of a woman during the Great Depression and how she and her family survived
when there was virtually nothing


Introduction by Linsey Garrant, followed by her interview
with Gertrude Young

During the time of the Great Depression, many Americans were suffering due to lack of
money and food. The stock market crash of 1929 hurt many a man's pocket and shattered
many dreams. Hope still lingered and families who were not as fortunate dealt with what
they had and dreamed of better times to come. Gertrude A. Young, my grandmother, is a
living witness of the unbearable economical situation that dominated in the late 1920's and
early 1930's. Her story is revealed here. It is commonly familiar to many others that lived
through this disastrous time as well.

Linsey Garrant

The Depression was a serious time in history that was filled with great sorrow and poverty. My
family was fortunate enough to have survived. My father was a very wealthy man. He owned four
restaurants that served liquor, and in that day liquor was very valuable to have around. However,
my father died before I was born, leaving my mother with four sons, a daughter on the way, and a
lawyer that would soon take all he had ever worked for. I was raised by my brothers and lived a
very sheltered and protected life. They were the workers of the house and their ample income was
what kept the home together. I never really understood what the Depression was all about because
my brothers kept it from me. As much as they tried to keep me naive of the situation, I couldn't
help but notice the poverty that lurked throughout the city. My family didn't own a home, but the
apartment that we stayed in was suitable enough for the time being. We weren't on the streets, so
that's all that mattered. Many families didn't even have that. You would often see young, hungry
families living on the streets and scraping for all they could get. Friends of my mother also lost
everything due to bad stock investments, which consequently ended in the crash anyway. Everyone
was hurting, but my brothers continued to work harder to keep our family alive.

I do recall an incident which happened in 1933. I voluntarily collected my brothers' wages and put
them in their savings account for them. The day before the Moratorium, which was a closing of all
banks in the country, I deposited money for my brothers and the next day all their hard earned
money was only worth 10% of its original value. All anybody had ever saved or invested in the
banks was now instantly worth nothing. The economy was horrible and instead of getting better, it
became worse. Again I can't really say I was a product of the immense poverty, but I did see it and
my family did experience it to some degree. We were among the lucky to have had four incomes in
one family, at a time when one was basically unheard of. We may have been in an even worse
position than I can imagine, but my brothers worked hard to give me the necessities that I would
need to survive. And truthfully when you have food, clothing and a loving family, money has no
value anyway.

Gertrude Young

George Cole: No offence George, but if you were looking to buy cheap one would have to assume your pants would be full of the yellow by now.

A new statistical cyclic modeling study indicates that a very impressive new Bull market in Gold is poised to begin early in 1998. This new study is based on the following, highly reliable predictive factors;

* Astrological convergences
* Harmonic convergences
* 2nd anniversary of the million man march
* Predictions of Indian SHaman
* John Denver's death as it relates to Ancient Indian prophecies re Gold
* Increase in El Nino's impact as communicated through Whale conversations ( as translated by Maharishi Mahesh Yogiammini )
* Ramtha's messages from beyond, by Shirley Mclain
* Trends in Hollywood movie production
* Cycles of red Ant polulations, currently peaking in the coming year
* Lunar cycle analysis, and it's links to major events which all seem to occur within mere weeks of each Full or New Moon.


Full study available on request at :

( OneBornEveryMinute.Fools.Com )

LGB,KIWI: I'll tell you what really worries me -- not an immediate market crash -- I really don't have a clue about that -- but what will happen when all those cheap SE Asian goods come to our shores at a 20-40% discount. Wait till mainland China devalues its currency! What is going to happen to all of those US based corporations that produce the same goods, but do not have the low cost foreign labor? Is the US economy able to absorb this?
How long will this take: 2- 3 months? Will our bull market survive this? I dont' know.
Opinions about the effect of the SE Asia goods Tsunami?

Thanks. It's true I lurk here and have been doing so as an interested investor in gold eploration stocks. I experienced the meltdown that occured after the Bre-x, Hixon, Golden Rule hoaxs and can tell you that anyone remotely connected in any way with these events will never forget what happened and as a result will be very careful about any information that is foisted onto then by any means. We need true debate about "facts"
to make sure they are true and therefore can be acted upon with some assurance.

For example, the post re: Royal Oaks stock value being equla to the value
of one of their mines. Does anyone truly believe this who knows anything about this whole business? Who knows how much gold is in any one of these mines? How much is anyone of these mines worth if the cost of getting ouince of gold out of the ground is 100 dollars more than it's worth?
It's ridiculous. The truth is that business principles are finally taking priority over form the spin doctors who are trying to make people believe that gold ( or profits ) can be spun from straw.

BGL: Great post! That will always work with some gold bugs, because by definition, they are always bullish anyway! We do need some humor tonight, given what may happen tomorrow -- probably more gold bug routs for a while until AG calms down.

PRECHTER has been calling for a stock mkt decline since 1987. His current bullishness on stks and bearishness on Metals is the first bullish metals and truly bearish stk indication I have heard this weekend.

DONALD When did Bob turn into a stock bull? He has been one way then the other on the metals through the 90s per the letters I have perused.

Mike Stewart: We are down about 8% from the August high now. Do you mean another 14% drop from here or a total of 14% from August?

Haystack: You seem to know something about gold mining -- is there any stage in the evaluation of a gold mine where you would feel comfortable estimating inground assets -- say with a safety fudge factor of some kind! Do you know why Glamis has been dropping like a stone for the last few days?

Oh my, aren't we all testy today?! Well, I guess it's just a part of group therapy ;- )
OK folks, here comes my mindless opinion and question. Everybody tries to figure out who manipulates gold market, blaming Swiss, etc., nobody yet pointed finger to good ol' USA. AG and the rest of our fearless leaders of financial market stated very clearly that they are ready to intervene when the situation would require it. If I remember right, it was agreed that the effort would be coordinated with other countries. Well it looks to me that the last few days in international as well as US markets would qualify for this intervention. Shakedown in Asia and follow up decline in Europe and the USA should result in money fleeing into gold ( that's how it worked in most previous declines ) . Now if the money from Asia was fleeing into gold instead into US bonds and stocks, we may have really bad situation on our hand and the decline in the last few days could have been much worse ( not counting what would happen next week. )

Don't you think that main manipulators of gold have their home base in the US? BTW, did you noticed that gold in London gold was behaving quite well and the decline happened on the US market? Don't you think that if it was Swiss doing you would see mach bigger decline in London?

I just think that to keep this US puppy ( stocks and bonds ) going we need to kill any indication of gold bull. That would be the real sign for investors that paper goes bust. Well, I think the question is for how long they can keep this game going? Until the game and manipulation can be played, I don't think that gold has any chance. On the other hand, I don't think that they can keep it going for too long.

The Pros and Cons of the Valuation Approach

Despite the careful study that is constantly being devoted to security values in Wall Street, the public is practically never told that prices of good stocks have become too high in the upper ranges of bull markets.

You probably have all seen this but just in case.
From the last paragraph of chapter six from Ann Rands book on capitalism, chapter by a much younger and innocent Alan Greenspan.
This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights, If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

Has anyone been noticing the sales of T-Bonds in the back of Barron's lately? Somebody has been selling.

And let's not forget, Joe Granville is bullish! Why? Because the public can't be wrong! Joe, did you ever hear about how prices are set at the margin?

BBL

JTF: This is a start, hope it is helpful:

http://www.stockscape.com/rule/art1.htm

JTF: I'm learning the hard way about the gold mining business and don't know nearly as much as I'd like. The problem as I see it is you have to take the word of the company about their reserves. Because you're relying
on the infromation they provide it is essential that you have confidence in the people themselves. This is really where due diligence comes in, I think. I want to know about their mining experience, business success, and accounting practices. If they're in the habit of writing their assets down, watch out. This is what Royal Oaks might do and with the broad stroke of a pen wipe out those assets they claim are greater than the stock.

As far as Glamis is concerned, many things can affect the stock
price. I'm sorry I have no idea about why their stock went down.

The South Sea Bubble: A Short Sketch of Events

The South Sea [or plural "Seas] Bubble is the name given to the first great stock market crash in
England in 1720. The word "bubble" has two meanings: it is synonymous with "cheat" and can
mean something fraudulent; it also refers to an inflated body of air that can easily burst. Both
meanings operate here. The South Sea Bubble is a fascinating story of mass hysteria, political
corruption, and public upheaval. It is really a collection of thousands of stories, tracing the personal
fortunes of countless individuals who rode the wave of stock speculation for a furious six months in
1720. The "Bubble year" as it is referred to, actually involves several individual "bubbles" as all
kinds of fraudulent joint-stock companies sought to take advantage of the mania for speculation.

The beginning can be traced to 1711 when the South Sea Company was given a monopoly of all
trade to the south seas. The real prize here was the anticipated trade that would open up with the
rich Spanish colonies in South America upon the conclusion of the War of the Spanish
Succession--a war that began in 1703 and would end in 1713 with a treaty that did favour England
but not nearly to the extent that was hoped. In return for this monopoly, the South Sea Company
would assume a portion of the national debt that England had incurred during the war. The scheme
was originally promoted by Robert Harley who wanted to set up a financial establishment that
could compete with the Whig Bank of England, which had been created in 1694. Hence, the South
Sea Company was really a financial institution that used its monopoly primarily as a means of
attracting investors. Some slave-trade voyages were made but these produced little profits. When
Britain and Spain officially went to war again in 1718, the immediate prospects for any benefits
from trade to South America were nil. What mattered to speculators, however, were future
prospects, and here it could always be argued that incredible prosperity lay ahead and would be
realized when open hostilities came to an end.

The early 1700s was also a time of international finance. By 1719 the South Sea directors wished,
in a sense, to imitate the manipulation of public credit that the Scot John Law had achieved in
France with the Mississippi Company, which was given a monopoly of French trade to North
America; Law had connived to drive the price of its stock up, and the South Sea directors hoped
to do the same. Many believed that some action was necessary to halt the diversion of English
capital to France. In 1719 the South Sea directors made a proposal to assume the entire public
debt of the British government. On April 12, 1720 this offer, sweetened somewhat, is accepted. A
number of large bribes to influencial Whig politicians like Stanhope and Sutherland and other
influential people, including the royal mistresses Madam von Platen and the Duchess of Kendal ( this
might seem scandalous but the Duchess of Kendal took all kinds of bribes ) , had something to do
with the result of the vote. The bribes were paid in fictitious holdings of stock. The Company
immediately starts to drive the price of the stock up through artificial means; these largely take the
form of new subscriptions combined with the circulation of pro-trade-with-Spain stories designed
to give the impression that the stock could only go higher. ( There perhaps is an analogy here
between the stock of microcomputer companies in the early 1980s and the overseas-trading
monopolies in the second decade of the eighteenth century. The potential for growth seemed
limitless. ) Not only did capital stay in England, but many Dutch investors bought South Sea stock,
thus increasing the inflationary pressure.

The middle of the Bubble story takes us from the offices of politicians and company directors to the
crowded Exchange Alley and its famous coffee-houses ( Jonathan's and Garraway's ) or what we
now would call the financial district of London between Cornhill and Lombard streets. The
contemporary atmosphere of Jonathan's--i.e., the frenzy of trading and manipulation of news--is
wonderfully brought to life in a scene from Susanna Centlivre's 1718 play A Bold Stroke for a
Wife, written a little over a year before the Bubble. Exchange Alley ( or Change Alley for short )
runs between Cornhill ( Picture ) and Lombard ( Picture ) directly opposite of the Royal Exchange
complex ( present building was erected in the nineteenth century ) . Today you can find a plaque on
the Alley wall indicating the exact location of Jonathan's ( no reference, however, to the events of
1720 ) . Moving west, we can catch a glimpse of the Chapter House in St.. Paul's Churchyard, next
to which stood the Bowles Print Shop where most of the South Sea prints were produced.

South Sea stock rises steadily from January through to the spring. And as every apparent success
will soon attract its imitators, all kinds of joint-stock companies suddenly appear, hoping to cash in
on the speculation mania. Some of these companies are legitimate but the bulk were bogus schemes
designed to take advantage of the credulity of the people. Several of the bubbles, both large and
small, had some overseas trade or "New World" aspect. In addition to the South Sea and
Mississippi ventures, there was a project for improving the Greenland fishery, another for importing
walnut trees from Virginia. Raising capital sums by selling stock in these enterprises was apparently
easy work, and brokers, or "jobbers" as they were then called, had a field day. The projects
mentioned so far all have a tangible specificity at least on paper if not in practice; others were rather
vague on details but big on promise. The most remarkable was "A company for carrying on an
undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is" ( Mackay 55 ) :

[the prospectus stated] that the required capital was half a million, in five thousand
shares of 100 pounds each, deposit 2 pounds per share. Each subscriber, paying his
[or her] desposit, was entitled to 100 pounds per annum per share. How this immense
profit was to be obtained, [the proposer] did not condescend to inform [the buyers]
at that time, but promised that in a month full particulars should be duly announced,
and a call made for the remaining 98 pounds of the subscription. Next morning, at
nine o'clock, this great man opened an office in Cornhill. Crowds of people beset his
door, and when he shut up at three o'cock, he found that no less than one thousand
shares had been subscribed for, and the deposits paid. He was thus, in five hours, the
winner of 2000 pounds. He was philosophical enough to be contented with his
venture, and set off the same evening for the Continent. He was never heard of again.
( Mackay 55-56 )

Such scams were bad for the speculation business and so largely through the pressure of the South
Sea directors, the so-called "Bubble Act" was passed on June 11, 1720 requiring all joint-stock
companies to have a royal charter. For a moment the confidence of the people was given an extra
boost, and they responded accordingly. South Sea stock had been at 175 pounds at the end of
February, 380 at the end of March, and around 520 by May 29. It peaks at the end of June at
over 1000 pounds ( obviously a psychological barrier in that four-digit number ) .

With credulity now stretched to the limit and rumors of more and more people ( including the
directors themselves ) selling off, the bubble then bursts. To be accurate, it suffers a puncture and
begins a slow, very slow at first, but steady deflation. By mid August the bankruptcy listings in the
London Gazette reach an all-time high, an indication of how people bought on credit or margin.
Thousands of fortunes are lost, both large and small. The directors attempt to pump-up more
speculation. They fail. The full collapse comes by the end of September when the stock stands at
135 pounds.

The last part of the story may be told quickly. Investors scream foul against the South Sea
directors. Parliament is recalled and George I hastens back to London. Mobs crowd into
Westminster. A committee is form to investigate the South Sea Company; by early 1721 it
uncovers widespread corruption and fraud among the directors, company officials and their friends
at Westminister. Unfortunately, some of the key players have already fled the country with the
incriminating records in their possession. Those who remain are examined and some estates are
confiscated. Robert Walpole then rises to power with some reasonable proposals to restore public
confidence. They take effect but the "Bubble" affected the fortunes of several families and remained
in the consciouness of the Western world for the rest of the eighteenth century, not unlike our
cultural memory of the 1929 Wall Street Crash.

Last Updated: October 11, 1996

According to Professor Martin Armstrong of the Princeton Economic report, the Clinton administration during his first term reissued expireing 30 year bonds back as 2 and 5 year bills in order to lower the interest payments and thus lower the deficit for reelection. Now the chickens are comeing home and the media blitz is on to hype bonds. They need a lot of customers especially if asia is selling.

JTF: Your mention of Astrikos website most appropriate. Rainsford T. Yang, the young proprietor, is in my opinion a budding financial astrology genius, and a damn good day-trader. He leaves my head spinning. As for a book you might want to look at to introduce you to the general concepts in "financial astrology," I would reccommend "FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY" by LCdr David Williams ( I'm an Army man myself, but this is one Navy Man I'll listen to ) . Published by American Federation of Astrologers. ( AFA ) . It always helps to study the basics of the discipline you are investigating, but judging from your intelligent appraisal of things and your open mind, you will get a foothold from this book that may prove interesting to you. Some very nice historical data is included as well. As for your comments on Shanghai, my son lives and works there, with his Shanghai-born wife, and needless to say China is an important focus for the Sheller household, as I'm sure it must be for yours.

JTF/HAYSTACK - If you are looking for a company that has in ground reserves that nobody on the planet disputes - Stillwater Mining-SWC -They are an intersting stock to say the least, when things do heat up the hedge will be quickly trimmed and then it is off to the races.

Platinum is their play. Turmoil in SAfrica, or Russia or anything that disrupts supply from those two sources and SWC looks very good.

But as always, please do your own research. I am investing in all of the metals because I know there is something going on. The NY Giants are in first place, it's a sign from the big fan in the sky.

JTF, My early memories are during the depression also. They were on a farm and include a terrible argument between my parents about whether to use a sheep which had died ( I don't know how ) for food. I have never been able to sell that farm and still look at it as a place for me and any members of my family sho need to, to return in case of a repeat of the 30's. I too share your concern that the "interesting times" we may be about to experience will be more than any of us are really prepared to deal with. Personally, I hope wise heads are able to manage things well and boring gold prices and good times continue. I own gold issues, not to get rich from them. I'd rather not, considering what that might mean to our lives as a whole. Rather, gold will always be a store of value, and I'm not smart enough to zig and zag with other holdings when times are as scary as they are now to me.

Clinton should be tried for treason and then forced to sleep with Hillary.

digdeep: What are Armstrongs forecasts for gold, U.S. dollar, and stock market?

WW: He correctly called the dip into April 14th and has been bullish since. He is ready to reverse himself on a dime he says. He thinks we will get an insignificant new high on the Dow and turn down from there.

Hi Panda: I did a post about two weeks ago that had a chart showing the dropoff on FRB foreign CB accounts T-Bond holdings. I will try and find it again.

Donald, My last post was for you, not JTF.

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Sunday October 26 3:04 PM EST

Rubin rules out Mexican-style bailout for Asia

By Roger Fillion

WASHINGTON, Oct 26 ( Reuters ) - Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin on Sunday ruled out a U.S.-led Mexican-style bailout
for the shaken economies of Southeast Asia.

Rubin said the United States is working with Asian governments, especially Indonesia, as well as the International Monetary
Fund, the World Bank and other governments to craft a package to ease the financial crisis gripping the region.

Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia have sought help from the IMF since their economies were dealt financial blows that
shook their stock, bond and currency markets.

Hong Kong became the latest victim last week after its stock market plunged and sent U.S. stocks into a tailspin.

``In Mexico, we had a support program that was dependent primarily on the United States. That is not envisioned here. The
key participants here will be the IMF and the World Bank,'' Rubin said on Sunday on ABC-TV's This Week`` program.

``We're all in the process right now of trying to think through what kind of a program will make the most sense for this set of
circumstances,'' he added, saying that the United States was ``part of a much larger process.''

The United States, by contrast, led an international effort in 1995 that made almost $50 billion available to Mexico to help that
nation ward off its own financial crisis.

Rubin said the Asian nations are ``well-positioned'' to regain their footing as long as the right steps are taken by government
officials there, international monetary officials, and other government leaders.

``Assuming all these things happen, and we're all working to make them happen, then I think these countries are
well-positioned to re-establish financial stability,'' he said.

The IMF in recent days has been moving closer to wrapping up a multibillion-dollar bailout for Indonesia. An IMF official said
late last week that only a few details remained to be worked out.

Some estimates have put the bailout at as much as $10 billion.

Indonesia, following in the footsteps of its neighbors, asked for IMF assistance on Oct. 8 after the rupiah currency came under
sustained pressure.

Rubin downplayed the likelihood that the crisis gripping Southeast Asia would hurt the world economy.

``The world community is clearly strong enough to overcome this problem,'' Rubin said.

But the woes facing Southeast Asia, particularly Hong Kong, have shaken investors in the United States.

U.S. stocks were battered for a second day on Friday due to jitters over the impact on U.S. corporations of Asia's crisis.

The Dow Jones average ended down 132.36 points, or 1.7 percent, at 7,715.41 after losing 187 points on Thursday.

For the week, the blue-chip index was down 131.62 points.

More news for related categories: stock capsules, options.


Help

Donald and Colleen : The word is spelt 'Jyotishi', not joytishi. Mike Sheller qualifies for the title and should comment.

[ Yahoo | Write Us | Search | Headlines | Info ]

[ Business - Company - Industry - Finance - PR Newswire - Business Wire - Quotes ]


Sunday October 26 3:04 PM EST

Rubin rules out Mexican-style bailout for Asia

By Roger Fillion

WASHINGTON, Oct 26 ( Reuters ) - Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin on Sunday ruled out a U.S.-led Mexican-style bailout
for the shaken economies of Southeast Asia.

Rubin said the United States is working with Asian governments, especially Indonesia, as well as the International Monetary
Fund, the World Bank and other governments to craft a package to ease the financial crisis gripping the region.

Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia have sought help from the IMF since their economies were dealt financial blows that
shook their stock, bond and currency markets.

Hong Kong became the latest victim last week after its stock market plunged and sent U.S. stocks into a tailspin.

``In Mexico, we had a support program that was dependent primarily on the United States. That is not envisioned here. The
key participants here will be the IMF and the World Bank,'' Rubin said on Sunday on ABC-TV's This Week`` program.

``We're all in the process right now of trying to think through what kind of a program will make the most sense for this set of
circumstances,'' he added, saying that the United States was ``part of a much larger process.''

The United States, by contrast, led an international effort in 1995 that made almost $50 billion available to Mexico to help that
nation ward off its own financial crisis.

Rubin said the Asian nations are ``well-positioned'' to regain their footing as long as the right steps are taken by government
officials there, international monetary officials, and other government leaders.

``Assuming all these things happen, and we're all working to make them happen, then I think these countries are
well-positioned to re-establish financial stability,'' he said.

The IMF in recent days has been moving closer to wrapping up a multibillion-dollar bailout for Indonesia. An IMF official said
late last week that only a few details remained to be worked out.

Some estimates have put the bailout at as much as $10 billion.

Indonesia, following in the footsteps of its neighbors, asked for IMF assistance on Oct. 8 after the rupiah currency came under
sustained pressure.

Rubin downplayed the likelihood that the crisis gripping Southeast Asia would hurt the world economy.

``The world community is clearly strong enough to overcome this problem,'' Rubin said.

But the woes facing Southeast Asia, particularly Hong Kong, have shaken investors in the United States.

U.S. stocks were battered for a second day on Friday due to jitters over the impact on U.S. corporations of Asia's crisis.

The Dow Jones average ended down 132.36 points, or 1.7 percent, at 7,715.41 after losing 187 points on Thursday.

For the week, the blue-chip index was down 131.62 points.

More news for related categories: stock capsules, options.


Help

Donald and Colleen : The word is spelt 'Jyotishi', not joytishi. Mike Sheller qualifies for the title.

IDT
Professor Armstrong gave a speach in London sometime around may 97.
I know he predicted gold to go to $1,000- $1,200 but I dont remember details. I will try to find the speach and post details tomorrow night.
The Princeton Economic Institute has a web site.

http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/jones.shtml

Clinton is the greatest President of the USA since Roosevelt. Booming Stk mkt, millions of jobs created and the world at peace. You nabobs of negativism should stop criticizing this great President. IMHO he is a victim of his own success and jealousy as well as his desire to help the average person. Hilliary and He I know from connections have a very close and good family oriented relationship. The reason nothing they say about Clinton sticks is that he is innocent or has done nothing worse than the more corrupt Republicans have done ten fold. Clinton in his heart wants to do good and help the people. This is why the Republican Conservatives hate him. They know the people believe he wants to help thus his record high popularity readings.

Start criticizing the way big money corruption can cover up a murder by John "Big Bucks ruthless capitalist" Ramsey of his own daughter.

check out http://www.ticnet.com/gjd/p1473.htm for neat gold site

G'Day, Nick/anyone from the land Downunder, if you can, please interpret this article:

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/26/y0021_y00_1.html

I am not sure if there is an OZ joke hidden in this article. Essentially, the article indicates that OZ gold miners are getting more for their gold now than before the RBA July announcement due to lower cash costs and higher gold price in terms of OZ dollar - since the OZ dollar has been tanking against the US dollar. Honest, that is what the article says.

Cheers

A lot of people think the market simply crashed on October 29, 1929 and know little about what happened before or after. After peaking around Labor Day of 1929, the market continued to decline and on 10/23 the Dow lost 6.3%. On 10/29 it lost 12.8%.

However, I was surprised to learn that that the market put on one of the greatest rallies ever during the last hour of trading on the 29th and the next day, 10/30, the Dow soared 12.3%. The rally was short-lived, and by mid-November the Dow closed down nearly 50% from its September high. The so-called '29 crash encompassed far more than just October 29 and the major damage really occurred between 1930 and 1932 when the Dow was down 86% from the spring highs of 1930. It was off an amazing 89% from the 1929 peak. The Dow did not completely recover this loss for nearly 20 years.

So much for *Buy and Hold*!

who would the swiss sell to, another bank?....that option does not really affect the supply does it, what if the euro bank gets it, and the gold is not even sold yet.......I think gold mining companies need to get together and discuss things for the benefit of their industry, a couple of mrgers would help a lot

Yes,I am awake!

Input requested for purchasing gold as an investment. I am a jeweler and I regularly buy gold in .9999 shot for casting. If I want to take advantage of todays low price and maybe more for investment does it make sense to buy coins or bullion with the attached premium? Can these be resold without melt and assay costs or should I stick with buying shot at spot and paying the 2% and $75 refining costs?

how much lower can gold go?.....200?...then what.....how do silver mining companies survive, isn't silver below production cost right now?

The official line that the CBs want to sell gold so as to earn interest by investing the proceeds in paper is such a bald faced lie, that I am amazed anybody with a any knowledge of the facts could believe it.

The CBs have sold very little gold despite all the talk But they have leant huge amounts to the shorts on very favorable terms.

If they really wanted to sell gold so as to earn a better return, they would try to sell at the best possible price. This is the opposite of what they are doing. If a mutual fund manager tried to get rid of a stock in the same way the CBs allegedly want to "dispose" of their gold, he would be fired for gross incompetence. Assuming the CBs really want to sell in large amounts, their actions to date guarantee the LOWEST POSSIBLE PRICE.

BTW, I would not be surprised to learn at some future date that the big hedge fund shorts have more than a few high CB officials on their unofficial payroll. Does anyone here really believe that this Swiss thing came as a total surprise to certain knowledgeable insiders?

when you consoder the us national debt clock rises 600 million a day and over 5 trillion, which sounds better, an ounce of gold or a dollar?

Mike Sheller: Thanks for the post on Lt Cdr Williams. I have heard about his book, but have been unable to get my hands on it. I need something with historical data in it -- something to get my teeth into. So far, with all my efforts with plotting the Dow, and Astrological events, the only thing I can appreciate is the potentially dramatic effect of a solar or lunar eclipse. The longer term stuff such as the Jupiter/Saturn cycles I can't unravel to my satisfaction. By the way, Rainsford Yang was not the AstroInvestment day trader I was referring to, but yet another amazing investor. Yes -- I will eventualy get my family to Shanghai -- hopefully paid for by the fruits of my investments. The younger members need to see their Chinese roots. Our oldest went to Taiwan in an exhange program to learn Chinese. Our mother-in-law who brought the whole brood from Shanghai is in her 70's -- self taught -- and will not go back. She is the most amazing of my wife's family tree, as it was her insight that brought the family out of Shanghai before the communists took over -- moved everyone to Kowloon around 1947 or so, and then sent all the children ( including my wife ) to the US and Canada. Everyone a professional now too! Our family reunions include an Anethesiologist, a Geologist, a Computer programmer, a academic Statistician, a high level executive for a Chemical Company, as well as myself. When I go to visit in Canada, I am the ethnic minority -- and would not mind having my Mother-in-law in the house any time!

Its time for the usa to return to the gold standard, and create a new dollar, and declare the old one bankrupt ( establish a committee to pay off the old debt through selling some gov assets ) .......a good idea since my hunch is that europe prob will do that and become the world currency if we do not

the real issue in gold is world debt.......when you consider the amount of debt, sounds very logical to put all your money in bullion when you consider the alternative of a valueless currency possibility

Regarding gold stock mutual funds, do they rise proportionally more than the gold itself? If gold doubles, what happens to the NAV of a fund?

And when banks start selling their gold, you know there is real financial trouble brewing, when paper becomes valueless, then there won't be enough gold to sell, too expensive to buy, and where will your money be to spend

Buy Gold, have a job and put the paper in gold ( which may only depreciate ) , but doesn't have 6 trillion in debt behind it wired like a swiss watch

Donald,
I use the NYSE composite for McClellan Osc work. It peaked on a closing basis on Oct 7th at 514.21.

George Cole: Your 18:44 post really hits home. The LBME must have some Central bank reps in it, and the timing of the Swiss 1440 ton "sale" announcement, with the subequent fall of gold on the NY market is just too much to consider a coincidence. And Robert Rubin is a former commodities trader, isn't he?
What is your opinion about the HongKong situation -- do the Hedge funds really have 1 trillion pooled? If so -- HK won't have a chance - either with or without mainland China's support.

WALL STREET'S
DOOMSDAY SCENARIO
BELIEVE IT: THE MARKET COULD CRASH, AND
POLITICAL AND FINANCIAL CHIEFS ARE MAKING
CONTINGENCY PLANS

BY DANIEL KADLEC


Even with the Dow Jones Industrial Average flying high over 8000, few on Wall Street say they
expect a crash anytime soon. Indeed, the world is a prosperous, friendly place these days, and the
coffee-shop buzz is, "How do I get in the market?" not "How do I get out?" But make no mistake,
the stock market could crash again. Mechanically, there is nothing in place to guarantee that the
Dow won't fall 1000 points by lunch and another 800 points in the afternoon. Get real! An
1,800-point decline today would be the same 23% drop that occurred on Oct. 19, 1987. And that
plunge took place after the Dow had already fallen 17% from its speculative peak three months
earlier, which was 10 years ago this month. An exact recurrence would put the Dow at 5200 by
mid-October.

Of course things are much different. The economy is on a firmer footing. And since that horrendous
crash, much has been done to forestall a repeat debacle. For example, brokerage firms and
mutual-fund companies have invested billions of dollars in technology so that they can answer all the
calls and execute all the trades on the busiest days. The New York Stock Exchange, which has
never traded even 1 billion shares in a day, currently has the capacity to trade 3 billion shares. On
the computerized Nasdaq stock market, capacity was a mere 250 million shares a day in 1987 and
is now 1 billion shares, headed for 1.5 billion shares by the end of the year.

The N.Y.S.E. has adopted a flight of funny-named trading curbs: "collars" prevent certain
computerized stock trading when the Dow is up or down 50 points in a day; the "sidecar" rule gives
small orders priority when the market is moving briskly; and "circuit breakers" halt trading for 30
minutes when the Dow is down 350 points and for one hour when it is down 550 points. The curbs
ensure that investors have time to think. But at the end of the day, if what they think is that they
should sell, their brokers, the fund companies and the exchanges are ready to accommodate
them--so look out below.

Again, this isn't to be taken as a crash prediction. When the bull market finally ends, which it must,
it certainly doesn't have to be in calamity. The more natural turn would be to a slow, grinding bear
market, in which stocks fall some 20% to 30% over a year or longer. No panic. Just a lot of selling,
most likely hinged to a downturn in the economy.

But it's worth noting that even with all the adjustments since the '87 crash, another meltdown is
quite possible. And that hasn't been lost on a number of institutions quietly preparing for the worst.
Some of the nation's largest mutual-fund companies, like Vanguard and Fidelity, have detailed
battle plans should the market fall apart. Brokerage firms seem less frenetic but no less prepared,
as is the government. Maybe these parties aren't as sanguine about the markets as they would have
us believe.

In government, the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, formed after the '87 crash,
still meets every six weeks for an hour or so to discuss things like bank failures and stock-market
crashes. The group is chaired by Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and includes Federal Reserve
Chairman Alan Greenspan, as well the heads of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission and others. Officials are reluctant to say anything about
contingency planning out of concern that it would be misinterpreted as a statement on the
market--something they want no part of. Early last week Rubin was asked if he believed stock
prices were too high. "Those are the kind of judgments each investor has to make for himself," he
demurred.

What is known, though, is that the group is especially concerned about the potential for outflows
from mutual funds, which have become swollen with individual's deposits this decade. One of the
group's first courses of action during a crash would be to call fund companies to monitor activity.
Another virtual given is that the Fed would cut interest rates, as it did in 1987, putting enough
money into the economy to ease bottlenecks. That single act--cutting rates--is widely viewed as
having greatly limited the carnage in '87.

The overriding belief of the President's group--and this is true of nearly all relevant institutions--is
that virtually any market decline would be tolerable so long as it was orderly. The ability to take all
calls and get all trades done is paramount. It helps avoid panic, which leads to irrational selling and
a stock-market death spin. Says William Johnston, president of the N.Y.S.E.: "We see ourselves
as a utility. Our job is to supply enough power at peak times to keep every light burning." Hence
the Big Board's vast trading capacity, built at a cost of $1 billion since '87.

Brokerages and fund companies have more complex battle plans. For starters, they have to be able
to pick up the phone every time it rings. That was a major problem in the '87 crash. Clients couldn't
get through. And not every client who gets through wants to trade. Many just want advice. Merrill
Lynch's crisis plan is drawn from the '87 experience. It will depend on its far-flung army of brokers
to stay in contact with clients, while management's main task will be to stay in touch with brokers.
At the first sign of a meltdown, spokesman Jim Wiggins says, Merrill chairman David Komansky
will gather the 13-member management committee in a crisis room on the 32nd floor of the firm's
New York City headquarters. The room has video conferencing and a bank of phones. The first
task will be to assess the reasons for the crash and decide quickly on a sell, hold or buy strategy to
communicate to the branches.

Fund companies probably have the toughest chore, and maybe that's why they seem most
concerned with having an emergency plan. They have thousands of clients and often no extensive
broker network to hold hands--just an 800 number and a staff of phone operators. "For us the
front door is the telephone," says Vanguard president John Brennan. Vanguard, which manages
some $300 billion, has what it calls a bear-market task force. In the past few months the company
has been taking pains to scale back its clients' expectations for returns and even warning that a bear
market is inevitable. To prepare itself, Vanguard has built an off-site "war room" loaded with
phones and has a "Swiss army" of about 1,000 telephone representatives that can be deployed
almost instantly, doubling the firm's call capacity.

Fidelity Investments, with more than $500 billion in assets, is no less concerned about a crash
crush. Steven Akin, who manages Fidelity's electronic systems, says the firm can also double its
phone capacity in an emergency, partly by dropping many live phone and computer lines now
stored in the cafeteria ceiling. During the past year, Fidelity has paid particular attention to crisis
planning. "More dry runs, more computer simulations to make sure equipment is working,
information is disseminated quickly, and lines of credit are reconfirmed with our banks," says
Robert Pozen, president of Fidelity Management and Research Co.

In varying degrees, fund companies across the country are engaged in such planning, their central
concern being the ability to take phone calls. Of course, there is no perfect test of a contingency
plan. No one can know exactly where the pressure points lie until it's time to deal with them. The
good news is that heads of state and money seem prepared for the worst. Or is that the bad news?

--With reporting by Sam Allis/Boston, Jane Van Tassel/New York and Adam Zagorin/Washington



CRASHMEISTERS

If the stock market takes a severe hit, these are the key players who will decide what gets done in
Washington and on Wall Street to try to keep the damage to a minimum.

ROBERT RUBIN
Treasury Secretary
The President's point man. Would I.D. troubled firms and coordinate government plans

ALAN GREENSPAN
Fed Chairman
Top banker would work to assure liquidity and would stand ready to cut interest rates

DAVID KOMANSKY
CEO, Merrill Lynch
Would call on firm's experts to assess the problem and devise the best strategy for clients

JOHN J. BRENNAN
CEO, Vanguard
Would activate off-site "war room" and call on "Swiss army" of reps to field frantic calls

RICHARD GRASSO
CEO, N.Y.S.E.
On first alert--if the Dow fell 200 points--would be on the phone to Rubin, Greenspan

ROBERT POZEN
CEO, FMR Co.
Would activate cafeteria phone bank, double number of reps, monitor funds' cash



POSTMORTEM ON A BULL

A market dive would be big news. Here's where you would find the best info:

CNBC
Reigning champ of biz news delivers breathless coverage even on boring days. Imagine if it had
better material

CNNfn
Biz-TV upstart airs continuous market coverage and offers steady diet of interviews with Wall
Street's finest

WALL STREET JOURNAL
The online version ( wsj.com ) is stuffed with information and the latest market analysis

MOTLEY FOOL
Popular AOL forum ( keyword: fool ) would offer news and lots of chat from the hard hit


time-webmaster@pathfinder.com

The swiss want to sell some gold to pay off some of their debt...that's a good idea if it can fre you of debt and have nothing else at your disposal to do it, their bounty is in gold....ours is in industry, with 6 trillion debt lurking over its shoulder, have to be a perfectionist to believe things will hold up.

Strange, Friday's Globex is showing Dec S&P @965. ( -955 ) and the E-Minni @943.50 ( -1200 ) . Is this correct? Maybe the institutional investors are a lot more optimistic than the individual investers!!!
http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

If the market tanks, it will be a good buy....if the dollar tanks gold will be a good buy......i think both will tank...more the dollar than the market, in time, unless there is a revision in our currency to a new one or the elimination of our debt, or both...these are times of peace for the usa, so the dollar is safe barely...we need to be more realistic about our future

DIGDEEP: The speech you seek:

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2003
Presented On May 14, 1997 By
Martin Armstrong - Founder and President
ON GOLD EAGLE DIGEST PAGE






Princeton Economics Institute

Off 1% in first 10 minutes ...a new day is dawning.

Opinions, please re gold/siver long term ratios/potential.

Will silver emerge in the next PM bull market as the "poor mans gold" and keep pace with the yellow metal? Or, in a flight to value will silver ultimately be limited in it's upside potential by more traditional commodity fundamentals? This is an important question for those of us who see which way the wind is blowing, but have limited resources.

The expertise and diverse opinions at this site are greatly appreciated by those of us with the consciousness to recognize what is about to happen, but without the time for original research. Thank you for the education and entertainment.

Swiis gold isn't even sold yet

There is no swiss gold on the market yet to even affect supply and demand

I've noticed one blue chip retail stock down almost 50%

Carl, Smithy: Globex prices are not being updated so I was either wrong about the time or it changed because of the switch to Winter time. Panda, do you know?

Useful site http://www.btinternet.com/~stargate/wallst.htm. Gold comment is on commodity page

http://www.ticnet.com/gjd/p1473.htm

If the CB's staged the Swiss announcement to keep gold from being see as a safe haven, wouldn't it be ironic if it backfired. Maybe investors will see it as a sign of a CB desparation and start buying gold in record numbers! Anyone paying attention has to see, at the very least, the timing was suspect.

They don't call it the London "fix" for nothing.

Cheers

Portfolio: 73% Gold Assets, 45% Silver Assets, 38% Natural resource stocks, 11% Cash. Favorite quote: "knowledge is good."

http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/editorial/97/04/09/ivins0409.html

Bob: THE LONDON "FIX" -- THE LONDON "FIX" -- This reminds of US Baseball History... was it the 1926 World Series "FIX?"

http://www.ticnet.com/gjd/p1473.htm

Senator Blutarsky: Knowledge is Good, Math is bad. Total is 167% Was this done with a Federal Grant? ( Over the years I have met many who have visited your state )

I would not be suprised if these "announcements" backfire and the gold bull kicks the Central Banks and their leecherous hangers on investment banks squarely in the teeth. They have misjudged with their cynical assumption of stupidity of the masses.
You can fool some of the people some of the time but you can't fool all the people all of the time.

Australian market down 2.5% in 35 minutes.

Any gold quotes from there yet? Kitco world updates shows 316.10 bid, but it hasn't changed and may be incorrect.

So now what IS going on? This is copied from SI thread, a Bloomsberg news release with posters comments following **


Global Commodities
Fri, 24 Oct 1997, 6:12pm EDT

BN 10/24 Global Commodities: Gold Plunges on Swiss Gold Sales Plan

London, Oct. 24 ( Bloomberg ) -- The following is a summary
of the latest global commodity markets worldwide:
GOLD
IN LONDON, gold plunged near a 12-year low after a Swiss
government panel said the nation's central bank should get rid of
1,400 metric tons of its gold, heightening expectations of a
further wave of central bank gold sales.
The panel, which included the head of the treasury, said the
Swiss National Bank could transfer more than half of its gold to
the government and Switzerland's 26 cantons, who might then sell
it gradually. The bank would be left with 1,190 tons.
While the proposal was rejected by the Swiss government,
which reaffirmed a previously announced plan to sell 400 tons in
a 10-year period, it was taken by investors and traders as
another sign that the world's central banks and governments don't
regard gold as a cornerstone of the monetary system anymore.
''This is another nail in the coffin in the idea that gold
is a key monetary asset for central banks,'' said Kamal Naqvi, a
precious metals analyst at securities house Macquarie Equities
Ltd. in London. ''It encourages investment funds to say 'enough
is enough, let's sell out of gold because it doesn't have a
future for the next two or three years.'''
Gold for immediate delivery dropped as much as $8.50, or 2.6
percent, to $315.15 an ounce.
In NEW YORK, gold for December delivery fell as much as
$8.70, or 2.7 percent, to $316 an ounce on the Comex division of
the New York Mercantile Exchange.
********************************************************************
The report states they will try to have a referendum on the sale of 400 tonnes over a10 year period. This would not impact the markets at all, yet the majority of people believe 1400 tonnes have been sold or will be!
As an aside, there was a Front-page headline in the Financial Post of Canada which stated "Gold Hammered". The gist of the article was the approval in principle of the sale of 1400 tonnes. Buried on page 71 of the same publication in the commodities section was the report I posted above. If the media reports all the news in this haphazard way then how can one believe what any newscaster says?

NOVICE: Here are some suggestions for you. The following will help you in your endeavors.

http://www.gold-eagle.com

http://www.usagold.com

http://www.henge.com/~vspina/gold.html

http://www.chebucto.ns.ca/~an388/text.html

I think you will find this a good start for reading materials. I think that you should go to the Goldbug at the gold-eagle site as he has several articles on silver in specific. I get his newsletter and find him to be an experienced mind, and honest individual.

Hope this helps. For what it is worth I believe that silver will do very well in the years to come, but you will find input from experts at the above sites.

Aussie market down 74.3 ( 2.98% ) after first 40 minutes of trading.
On Saturday, Korea was down 3.93%.

http://www.ticnet.com/gjd/p1473.htm

Velcome

Senator BlewFartsky:

I have an excellent book for you to study, "Math FunforMENTALS". You can leard to add numbers.

"...so now tell me how does feel, to treat me like you do.....
...from the past until present, tell me now how does it feel..."

Oz stocks down 3% in 45 mins, my how quickly "perceptions" change.

H.K. Widens Band for Interbank Overnight Rate

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority said it widened the band for its overnight interbank rate by
100 basis points in anticipation the rate will experience further volatility. On Thursday, Hong
Kong's overnight interbank interest rate rose to as high as 300 percent amid speculation the Hong
Kong dollar's peg to the U.S. dollar could break. As Hong Kong interbank rates rise, local banks
may prefer to borrow from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which the central bank doesn't
want.

Bob ( 18:38 ) Nothing to "interpret" mate, the article is true. When the Oz Central Bank announced their Gold sale in July, Gold was $A 433. It is now about $A 446. The Aussie Dollar has tanked over the past week.

If you want to see a comparison of Gold priced in US and Aussie Dollar terms, I have the charts up at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html

The Chinese, the one's who murdered the students, have only one driving motivation, the continued strength of their political ends. Plain and simple.

Peregrine Stock, Bond Profits Tumble in Asia Turmoil

Peregrine Investments Holdings Ltd., one of Asia's biggest investment banks outside Japan, said
equity and bond profits tumbled as Asian markets sank since July. In a statement, Peregrine said
pretax profit in its equities division dropped by more than half, or 58 percent, to an unaudited
HK$124 million ( $16 million ) between Jan. 1 and Oct. 24. Pretax profit in the fixed-income group
fell by 42 percent to HK$108.5 million during the same period. ( 90 HK CN )

Hope Hepcat ain't listening ( he don't like it when I do this ) ..Aurator: Lone seagull just left these rocky shores and is headed yer way.....Gold related of course.....Panda: am workin on a masterpiece....

just look at that black-scholes at work...
let's give them a Nobel prize for that, we don't have to think anymore.
Oz -3.5% in 1 hour, nikkei -1.5% on the open.

S+P Futures down 9.90

37+% metals related, 39+%income stocks, 18+% int term gov bonds, 5+% fixed income &MMF's. ( + denotes fractional percentage ) .

Gold up .9. http://www.hkabc.net/cgi-bin/mtl-cgi

OZ Dollar .6845

"Iraq Considers Response to New UN Resolution"
Friday October 24 1:05 PM EDT

BAGHDAD, Iraq ( Reuters ) - Iraq Friday said it asked parliament to
consider how to respond to a U.N. resolution threatening further
sanctions on Iraq and condemned the United States for what it
said was blackmail of other U.N. Security Council members.

"In the light of the gravity of the situation...it has been
decided to refer the subject to the National Assembly to discuss
it in a comprehensive way and raise the recommendations it sees
( suitable ) toward it," the official Iraqi news agency ( INA ) said.

INA said the decision was taken by a joint meeting of Iraq's
Revolutionary Command Council and the command of the ruling Baath
Party chaired by President Saddam Hussein.

"During the meeting the situation was discussed following the
latest unfair resolution issued yesterday under American pressure
and blackmail and on which five countries ... abstained," INA
said.

A divided U.N. Security Council Thursday issued a resolution
threatening Iraq with new travel sanctions after the United
States and Britain failed to obtain an immediate implementation
of any new curbs.

The Council voted 10 to 0 with five abstentions -- France,
Russia, China, Egypt and Kenya -- on a resolution spelling out
the "firm intention" to impose measures to prevent travel abroad
by Iraqi officials responsible for blocking U.N. weapons
inspection teams.

Scrapping Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and making sure they
are not acquired again is a key requirement for lifting sanctions
on exports, such as oil, according to a 1991 Persian Gulf War
cease-fire resolution.

"There is no obvious horizon for the lifting of sanctions on Iraq
and for the council's compliance with its obligations vis-a-vis
Iraq which practically means that the council has abandoned its
obligations due to the aggressive American attitude," INA said.

Iraq has warned it would consider ending cooperation with the
U.N. Special Commission ( UNSCOM ) in charge of weapons
inspections if new sanctions were imposed.

The new U.N. resolution maintains a suspension of the council's
regular review of trade sanctions against Iraq until April. This
means no easing of the embargo, imposed on Iraq when it invaded
Kuwait in August 1990, will even be considered until then.

The resolution called for a list of Iraqis who have blocked U.N.
inspections and threatened to ban them from travel abroad.

The council would have to take another vote before any action is
taken.

The United States and Britain originally wanted travel bans
instituted immediately but compromised to get Russia and France's
vote.

However, both Moscow and Paris believed the final text was still
too strong.

Well I checked the "Astrikos" site. Recommend it to anyone who would love to view a true classic of Astrobabble doublespeak. Especially loved the "Time to sttend a self help seminar" recommendation. Well, we DO have a Palmistry reader in town, time for me to log off and go check tomorrows Gold rpice.

More info on proposed sale:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/26/y0004_z00_1.html

Aus down 3.48%, Japan dropping fast ( down 1.57 ) will be shortly under 17000. Gols quoted by EBN $310.75 at open, Kitco has it at $310.20

Don't know if anyone answered yer question---don't care either...but Greasepan next meets with his fed cronies on Nov.12....sh!t,I can't wait.....Aurator: yeah,I'm in a differen't time zone....CherOkee ( part 2 ) have a good trip.....

A new process for Gold refinement has just been announced. This may lead to an expansion in production rates to approximately 7 trillion tinnes per annum. The new method involves a patented process developed by a genious names "Rumplestiltskin" and requires only spinning wheels and straw for making fine gold thread. read details in a new report;

"Grim Fairy Tales" and thier direct relevance to Gold & Stocks by M. Sheller.

Looks like cme globex S&P 500 is down -9.00. Any confirmation out there???

Someone e.mail Yahoo to order more red ink.

Understand Nikkei down 240 Gold 309 30 yr bond yiled 6.249 .Yes????

Hi Byron: It is -850 now.

Okay, so everybody can stop picking on each other about their method of telling the future. How's bout, predict how many times the CNBC LEMMING NETWORK will mention the gold "already" been sold swiss news story tomorrow.

Byron: I show spot at 310.10, Nikkei at -299 ( 17064 ) 30 year ?

Donald: Red ink. I think maybe we have the parting of the Red Sea of ink. ( - - ) .

Keep seeing references to SI thread. Wha's an SI thread? Please help. Thanks in advance.

tolerantl
Thanks for info

Donald: Just when the fun begin, I have to leave to catch the last bus or else I have a 1 1/2 hour walk home from the library. Will monitor events on the radio. Have fun. : ) Nite all:

Hope it was helpful.

SI= silicon investor

Folks, I just think that despite socks going down today ( I think across all world markets ) gold will be down too. They got to keep this puppy locked in the cage. I see gold at $308.85 at Kitco? EBN quote is $309.50

STEVEN POLLACK: As the NAV of a stock fund fluctuates with the composite of its component stocks, I think it would be hard to try to establish a correlating factor between its movements and bullion price fluctuations. I do, however, as part of the technical analysis I perform before choosing gold mining stocks, try to establish such a correlation by looking at the price of the stock at discrete highs and lows in the price of bullion. I call this the Gamma Coefficient ( I thought the word would go well with "gold" ) . It refers to the relative percentage rise in the value of the stock for every US$1 rise in the price of gold. To illustrate, RYO ( before the Kemess tests ) had a Gamma of about 1.9. ECO's is 1.0, REO's is about 4.0, and DKT's is about 8.0. A high Gamma is obviously more indicative of volatility, but is also an indication of possible downside or upside ( my favorite possible outcome ) potential. It's a little trickier to calculate a Gamma for relative flatliners like HL ( about 0.7 +/- ) , but you can generally find a trend. I would guess that the average is about 1.5 to 2.0, but have never calculated it. Of course, a sudden drop of US$15 at a point where gold stocks are near the bottom anyway doesn't necessarily mean that DKT, for instance, will go down 8.0x15=120% ( a total absurdity ) . It's only a coefficient ( like the Beta coefficient that determines the correlation of a stock to the market in general ) and it has limitations. The coefficient can be used to gauge volatility ( useful in day trading ) , profit potential, or relative risk, and can be a useful tool in building a portfolio tailored to a desired risk level. And, if nothing else, it gives me something to do while waiting for gold to go up!

Aussi down 3.49%. Mining index down 7.50%. If the CB's intended to create a crissis in the mining industry, THEY HAVE SUCCEEDED WITH FLYING COLOURS ( mostly red ) .

"Socks going down?!!" Dammit Miro I know there have been some bad rumors about Bill's sex life but leave "Socks" the cat OUT of it!

The brutal washout in the XAU this past week, can only be bullish for Gold and Gold stocks as this will establish a new resistance floor from whence the new Bull will emerge. All the "weak sisters" have now been sent to their lowest possible levels and.... ( What? what's that you say?, We've said this 85 times before and then went on to even more terrible beatings?? ) Uhhhh Ummmmm NEVER MIND!

green lights are GO!

Check your compost bin

LGB: Do you honestly think that if gold goes lower the shorts will be able to continue this criminal ruse?

The Federal Reserve System began purchasing Russian gold in 1920 ( Russian Revolution in 1917-18 Lenin and Trotsky )
Re: Russia
An Article in the English monthly "Fortnightly" July, 1922, says:
"During the past year, practically every single capitalistic institution has been restored. This is true of the State Bank, private banking, the Stock Exchange, the right to possess money to unlimited amount, the right of inheritance, the bill of exchange system, and other institutions and practices involved in the conduct of private industry and trade. A great part of the former nationalized industries are now found in semi-independent trusts"

Re: Russia
In Russia, the issuance of sufficient currency to handle the needs of their economy occurred only after a government had been put in power which had absolute control of the people. During the 1920s, Russia issued large quantities of so-called "inflation money", a managed currency.

"Fortnightly" article July 1922 obseved that:
"As economic pressure produced the "astronomical dimensions system" of currency; it can never destroy it. Taken alone, the system is self contained, logically perfected, even intelligent. And it can perish only through collapse or destruction of the political edifice which it decorates."

"Fortnightly" Also remarked in 1922: "Since 1921, the daily life of the Soviet citizen is no different from that of the American citizen, and the Soviet system of government is more economical."

Admiral Kolchak, leader of the White Russian armies, was supported by the international bankers, who sent British and American troops to Siberia in order to have a pretext for printing Kolchak rubles. At one time in 1920, the bankers were manipulating on the London Exchange the old Czarist rubles, Kerensky rubles and Kolchak rubles, the values of all three fluctuating according to the movement of the Allied troops aiding Kolchak. Kolchak also was in possession of considerable amounts of gold which had been seized by his armies. After his defeat, a trainload of this gold disappeared in Siberia.

At the Senate Hearings in 1921 on the Federal Reserve System, it was brought out that the System had been receiving this gold. Congressman Dunbar questioned Governor W.P.G. Harding of the Federal Reserve Board as follows:
DUNBAR:"In other words, Russia is sending a great deal of gold to the European countries, which in turn send it to us ?"
HARDING:"This is done to pay for the stuff bought in this country and to create dollar exchange."
DUNBAR:"At the same time, that gold came from Russia through Europe?"
HARDING:"Some of it is thought to be Kolchak gold,coming through Siberia, but it is none of the Federal Reserve Bank's business. The Secretary of the Treasury has issued instructions to the assay office not to take any gold which does not bear the mint mark of a **friendly** nation."

Just what Governor Harding meant by "a friendly nation" is not clear. In 1921, we were not at war with any country, but Congress was already beginning to question the international gold dealings of the Federal Reserve System. The Treasury could claim that it did not know where its gold came from since their office only registers the bank from which it made the purchase.

Since 1906, the Treasury has not known from which of the international gold merchants it was buying its gold.

Nikkei down 335.37 ( 1.93% ) ...Hold the calls Mildred....gotta game ta watch ( go Tribe ) ......

To Kahunna Grande: When did the PermIAn Basin become the PermAIN Basin?
Been wondering 'bout thet since I first saw one of your posts ( ? ) a month or so ago.

Kiwi, re your 19:36. Wish I was as optimistic as you are about the "Stupidity of the masses". However, based on a lot of what I've been reading here of late.... re Full & Lunar Moons and all, and their immediate impact on events ( well OK, impact within a few days or weeks let's say ) , based on the number of hungry wishful responses to such posts, I'm afraid that the "masses" may have a ways to go before they are "Onto" any shenannigans with Central Banks. You do have to learn to crawl before you can run after all.

Hey Hillary, throw them both out ( Bill and Socks ) . Both of them are just no good bums. Hmm, come to think of it, it could help gold ;- )

Sorry should have qualified that, it's the asian masses I was referring to ...for you guys in spoonfed America, the stupidity will go on for somewhat longer I think...hey ignorance is bliss though.

To answer your question Tol, Yep, I do believe the shorts can keep their ruse going indefinitely, well ALMOST indefinitely. We have a 20+ year supply sitting in CB reserves so they can keep it depressed for a MIGHTY long time. Plus, they don't even have to SELL the damn reserves. Just TALKING about it, or THINKING about it sends the price spiraling down! ( They figured that out after the Aussie sale..them Aussies ain't so dumb ya know, they got their sale accomplished at a much HIGHER Gold price! )

THE ESCALATING BATTLE FOR JERUSALEM

When Oslo I & II were signed the issue of Jerusalem was placed at the end
of a five year negotiating time table or assigned to "final status". Many
Israelis and Jews felt that this was a mistake in the light of risks to her
security which Israel was being pressured to take, and the many
irreversible concessions which Israel would make before that time.
Jerusalem, though it has never been the capitol of any Arab nation or
empire's and continues to be the festering, lightening rod issue of all the
negotiations with the Arab Palestinians. The Palestinian Authority
manipulated violence opposing the opening of the north end of the Rabbinic
Tunnel in the city, and the building on Jewish land in south Jerusalem, and
Islamic terrorism are opening salvos in the Battle for Jerusalem. Within
thirty days of the signing on the White House Lawn, Yassir Arafat stated
more than 10 times - principally to Arab audiences - that "the Palestinian
flag will fly over Jerusalem, the capital of a Palestinian state." His
speeches in Arabic never fail to mention the issue of Jerusalem. A battle
of biblical proportions on Jerusalem is considered by some to be imminent
( revelation chapters 19 - 22 ) . In any case it is important that
Bible-believers know what history and the scriptures say about the
IMPORTANCE OF JERUSALEM.

CONSIDER ITS HISTORY AND BIBLICAL IMPORTANCE: In 1003 B.C. David conquered
the stronghold of the Jebusites and declared Jerusalem the capital of
united Israel. For 3000 years, it has never been the capitol of any other
country or people. There are over 1,000 references to Jerusalem or its
synonyms in the Bible signifying its central importance. It is the only
city called "chosen of God". Furthermore God calls it "...His HOLY LAND"
( Zechariah 2:12 ) and declares "I am jealous for Jerusalem and for Zion with
great jealousy" ( Zechariah 1:14 ) . While it is important to Muslims and
Christians, it is not a central, integral part of the faith as it is with
the Jews Psalm 137:4-6 ) . It is the location of the Temple, which is
specifically for Israel and through her to the other nations or the world.
As Bible believers we are told to venerate Jerusalem and pray for its peace
( Psalm 122:6 ) . Psalm 48 instructs us to visit it, walk around it, declare
her towers, and tell succeeding generations about it. We are also
instructed to be watchful on Jerusalem's behalf ( Isaiah 62:1 ) . We also need
to remember that the events, which brought about our redemption, took place
in Jerusalem. Jesus will return to a Jerusalem, which is in Israel's hands
( Revelation 19:11-29 ) . The final end-time scenario will be played out in
her streets. It is and should continue to be the undivided capital or the
state of Israel - not a divided capitol of a Palestinian state under
Islamic control.

Further, Jerusalem is the only city with which God elected to have a
special eternal relationship. "He chose Mt. Zion which He loved" ( Psalm
78:87 ) . "The Lord loveth the gates of Zion more than all the dwellings of
Jacob. Glorious things of thee are spoken, Zion, City of God" ( Psalm
87:2,3 ) . The "Most High Himself shall establish her." ( Psalm 87:5 ) . God
never speaks in such terms of any other city. It is also interesting that
Jerusalem is the only city whose rebuilding was foretold 25 centuries
before it happened, including the sequence in which her suburbs would be
rebuilt ( Jeremiah 31:38-40 ) .

In May 1996, when he was elected Israel's Prime Minister, Binyamin
Netanyahu, in one of his first diplomatic actions offered to move the
"final status" negotiations ( including Jerusalem ) to the front burner for
immediate negotiation before any discussions with regard to further land
concessions or borders took place. His proposal was scorned by the
Arab/Palestinians and dismissed by the U.S. Recently a similar proposal
was put forth by the U.S. Secretary of State.

In a situation reminiscent of the biblical end-time scenario, the world
seems determined to strip Israel of Jerusalem. The European nations,
Russia and her former satellites, the UN, the Vatican and the U.S. State
Department all call for Jerusalem to be divided under international
control. They and the Islamic nations, are determined to acquiesce to the
demands of the Arab Palestinians who have failed to comply with most of
Oslo I & II, and every one of the provisos of the Hebron agreement,
negotiated by Prime Minister Netanyahu in April, 1996.

The Palestinian covenant's commitment to Israel's destruction remains
unchanged, though, embarrassingly, the White House celebrated its
"revision" in 1995 by bringing Yassir Arafat to the White House for a major
ceremony. Fortunately, not everyone is buying the propaganda. "Israel is
not enduring a cold peace, Israel is enduring a war by other means," House
speaker Newt Gingrich declared. "Israel's enemies in the region are
attempting to achieve through terror and coordinated propaganda what their
armies could not achieve in battle - the defeat of Israel" ( Washington
Post, April 9, 1997, Page A27 ) . The Speaker also publicly criticized the
Clinton administration for assigning moral equivalence to both sides
commenting, "there should be no question of any pressure on the Israeli
government to make any concessions until Arafat has met the demands of 3
1/2 years ago in Oslo and the burden should be placed by the American
government on Arafat and the Palestinian authority to keep the word they
have already given...before a word is said to Israel." Contrary to the
position on Jerusalem articulated by the State Department and the White
House, the U.S. Congress in December 1996 and again in April 1997 passed a
law that Jerusalem is and should remain the undivided capital or Israel and
the American Embassy be moved there from Tel Aviv. Though it is the law of
the land, it is ignored by the State Department and the White House.

Israel's former Ambassador to the U.N., Abba Eban, one of the chief
supporters of the Oslo accords, says that Oslo I & II were born of a
desperate desire for peace on the part of Israelis and the "belief that the
end of the cold war and the defeat of Saddam Hussein had kindled a spark of
realism in the Arab public". However, recent polls show that 37% of the
Palestinians want to abandon the peace process, and 49% support the suicide
bombing of Jews in a Tel Aviv caf on March 21, 1997 and the Jewish market
in central Jerusalem on July 30.

Since, clearly, Jerusalem is upon God's heart it also should be on the
heart of every Bible-believer. The scriptures instruct us to demonstrate
our support for His holy city. "I have set watchmen upon thy walls O
Jerusalem which shall never hold their peace day or night. Ye that make
mention of the Lord, keep not silence" ( Isaiah 62:6 ) . We also need to be
encouraged by God's unchanged agenda to "make Jerusalem a praise in the
earth" ( Isaiah 62:7 ) . It is as certain as the character of God Himself.

lgb: the next full moon will get ya! ZAP

Geo S- Nice try, but there probably are very few Rrepublicans on this group. If any.

All: A.Greenspan and all the CBs remind me of a juggler who throwns
balls one after another until he has too many in the air and drops
the lot.BOO.October 31st-January 1st.

NOVICE: Check out the gold mining analysis at http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html
LGB: You forgot to mention the cosmic ripples that the Y2K phenomenon will cause.
DONALD: I doubt that we'll ever see gold at $100-200 any more than we'll see any other metal at half its current price unless there's a market corner and subsequent collapse a la Bass Brothers ca. 1980, a revolutionary new mining technique ( similar to BGL's "Rumplestiltskin" method ) , the world suddenly deciding that gold will not be used for anything else anymore, or our government fixing the price a la FDR - hmmm...7 is a lucky number...let's make it $177 today!

Kitco Throws in the Towel !!

When you go to the full screen 24 Hour Spot Gold Chart, the scale has just been expanded to allow a move down to $296. Is this a contrary indicator?

Anyone want to "chat" ? Go to Undernet #kitco.

You're right Miro, I should throw those Bums out! In fact, to be honest, recently I found out that "Socks" was fraternizing and having some kind of Gay relationship with some "Hepcat" fellow.

Kiwi re your 20:44, I beg to differ. Make that SILVER spoon fed America dude! ( BTW, Olivia Newton John sucks! )

GO FISH/ GO SILVER/ DONT GO DOWN TOO MUCH GOLD!!

TOM HAUSER: What's "Undernet #kitco?"

Is gold up $13.00 or am I getting bad access quotes? anyone?

I love socks and that means I love BC b/c Socks loves BC So I am a CFof B Cat friend of Bill.

Most High re your 20:45. But most High, didn't you tell us in the Old Testament that Astrologers should be put to death?

Then maybe i am a Communist/Socialist If you want just workin fer the people..

Gold at 309.40

LGB; let's put that up to harsh light of reality...astrologer's should be put to death, so Gold's going UP, right?

TOLERANT1: Thanks for the sites!!

LGB: I disagree, I think that you discount the massive amounts of gold that are being purchased worldwide. In addition I think that the political instability in the world is going to have an effect on prices shortly.

The theory that the CB's have it down pat is not an opinion I give much to. But, given our postings. We disagree, that's all.

LGB: Is that GoLd, or God?

Kiwi: That's not fair. We are not all spoon fed. I'm the first person in my family to walk upright, I still eat with my hands.

Hey kuston, scrolled back and found your early AM post. Sorry dude, I told you already that dialogue between us was over. As to e mailing you, a ) I have no interest, b ) That's not "Face to face" and c ) I am no longer interested in carrying on any feuds with Kitoc members. ( My attacks on VooDoo and Snake Oil Newsletter sellers are not defined as feuds ) .

P.S. if we met face to face I'd be forced to "Bitch slap" you....Quit while you're only a "little behind" ( A.K.A. A "Small Ass" )

NOVICE: Your welcome, hope they help you.

I guess the fur is flying again at Kitco -- always seems to happen when things are hopping!

Yep, Gold's going UP! EVENTUALLY! Now don't quote ME on putting anyone to death, I don't believe in that. Certain IDEAS on the other hand......

JTF: Proof cycles can be used to analyze anything.

No JTF, the reason for the Fur flying is the effect of the Full moon. It must be either;
a ) A full Moon ( i don't hink it is though ) , or
b ) A new Moon ( don't think it's one a those either..Sheller? or it could be

c ) Close to a Full Moon or New Moon, or maybe
d ) A few days from a full Moon or New Moon, or
e ) Quarter Moons or Half Moons count? or
f ) A lunar Eclispe sometime this Century followed by a Full Moon and new Moon within a month or so +/- a few days or.......

Donald: Are you still up? Any thoughts about whether the hedge fund forces will descend on Hong Kong with $1 Trillion? Not good for the worlds markets if this happens. Reminds me a bit of the days of the pirates. Just scroll forward in time and use derivatives to attack currencies, instead of cannons and swords. Only -- this time the consequences are felt world-wide.

Gold is definitely being used as a barricade to stop people exiting the market...bit like the mad funride operator, everybody's screaming and throwing up "we've had enough let us off" ..and he's cackling wildly so you wanna be in the market....hahahahahahaha

LGB: Your point well made -- I haven't figured all the Astrological stuff out either, and I doubt I will be able to use it before we have a real gold rally.

Hillary Clinton ( @Miro, Socks the Cat ) : Those ta ( i ) les of Hep doing strange things with small animals have been totally misconstrued and blown completely out context. Truth be known, it was all in the best interest of pure science. ...... Something about about divining the future via the entrails of a cat.

Globex shows Swiss F down 1.

LGB: Here's a good one for you -- After the whopper of 1400 tonnes of Swiss gold sold on Friday, what will the next frightening rumor be, that will push gold down another $10-$20? Germany's rumored sale of 200 tonnes has been thoroughly outclassed!

Wednesday, the world is Greenspan's stage.

Or I will bitch slap every last one of you. Or I will take my toys away from you and go drown myself in the ocean in Monterey. Or I can drown myself in this snake-oil that I bought so long ago when I was adDICKted to newsletter sellers. I have a garage full and now I am gonna cry like a baby to everyone at kitco. BOO HOO BOO HOO BOO HOO ( tears tears ) . And I'm gonna save all MY minnions and those that don't LISTEN to ME I will bitch-slap the lot of you cause I'm such a big-boy with lots of big boy fishing toys and now that I think about it I think I'll bitch-slap the huge fish that I caught yesterday while I was flying back from Alaska and I stopped in Tahoe for a non-cheating pokeME game.....wait what was I talking about.........oh.......I'm gonna go bitch-slap my wife now because I already took care of Pitzke and that Sheller moron and then I'll feel like a complete pencil dick man........blah blah blah......blah blah blah blah..........cause I'm a HORSES ASS and you ALL should re-read this post everyday or I will bitch-slap you......blah blah blah......and I'm not getting tired of myself..........blah blah blah......

Undernet is IRC, Inter relay chat. Allows a group of people to chat together. I will be there for another hour. #kitco is the channel.

You had me going for a moment there-- that would be headlines. That's actually 1 part in 10,000 I believe. The SWFR is actually 0.68xx -.00001

I have lots of books about cycles, but so far all they are good for is long term trends. Can't really make investment decisions from them, but they do give you some idea of risk -- like the cycle in XAU/gold, or DOW/gold.

JTF, keep your facts clear, the Swiss have sold nothing, and I don't think they will be able to, given the conservative flavor of the Swiss people.

Donald -- Thanks!

Ted -- I guess we have some weather coming in! Gold seems to be gyrating here and the Globex... well..........

Trading could be dangerous to you pocketbook.Super computers connected to satellites moving eurodollar's around the globe in milliseconds checking markets for put and call ratios.Internet media brainwashing flashing across the foreheads of the sheep to be sheared.The future is here NOW.What chance does the little investor have?None whatsoever!!!!!.Happy Trails

If we enter a deflationary period, what makes anyone think that the Dollar will survive it? Is it not a debt instrument? How are us poor tax payers going to make good on it ( the Dollar ) if we don't have jobs?

Bill Withers: You should look at my prior posts! I think I said that on Friday! To summarize one of my posts, the only organization less likely to sell gold than the Swiss would be the Rothschilds. If the Swiss sell gold, it can be only after a public referendum, which would probably not pass anyway! And given how much they value the yellow, they would certainly not sell it now -- but over at least a 10 year period! As I have said several times before -- this is a setup! What I find incredible is that any gold trader would be dumb enough to believe it!

October 26, 1997
Hollywood tries to make amends for blacklist 50 years after

LOS ANGELES ( AP ) - Fifty years after the blacklist, Hollywood is honoring the living screenwriters caught up in the Red Scare-era witch hunts. Still, the decades have not healed all wounds and the two surviving
members of the Hollywood Ten remain angry over their very different roles
in naming names to congressional investigators. A commemorative event today comes on the golden anniversary of the hearings of the House Un-American Activities Committee, during which Hollywood filmmakers were questioned about - and persecuted for - their politics. The Hollywood Ten, a group of distinguished writers and directors, were cited for contempt of Congress and jailed for failing to co-operate with the committee.
Blacklisting of Hollywood writers suspected of communist leanings or
affiliations began with the committee's hearings in October 1947.
Hollywood blacklisting flourished into the 1950s. Only one of the living members of the 10 - Ring Lardner - will attend Monday's event. Lardner, the co-screenwriter of Laura and Woman.

Besides recognizing the damage caused by the anti-communist panic,
ceremony organizers and participants hope the anniversary will remind
today's filmmakers threats to expression still exist.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Hollywood-Blacklist.html

Where will it stop?!

Great post@3:09, you sound VERY convinced of what's to come.Being in the jewelry business all these years I own lots of stuff ( hard assests ) and just about everything is paid for! The world has little use now for hard assets but as you suspect, mind sets do change. My take on this is that it'll hapen slowly; labourusly, and wear everyone out coming down just as it did going up. I've noticed that the bigger things are the longer and more slowly they seem to fall: take a great pine for instance, seems to fall forever!, but oh the impact when she hits the ground!!

I don't know if this info has been posted if it has here it is again.
A real problem in shipping GRAIN not moving, backlog building, elevators full, farmers being turned away, etc.etc. Railroad merger, last years crop held back and POLITICS are some of the causes of problem.
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1003.htm

Nikkei just broke critical support at 17K. Watch this site tonight. http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets?u

tolerant1:

Al may be warming up for the final aria but it is looking more and more like the audience is heading for the exits and fast.

It looks like the Australian dollar is heading for the toilet. Maybe the brain trust over at the RBA can unload a few tons of gold. That should fix everything. Do you suppose they invested the proceeds of their last gold sale into some high yielding currencies of Southeast Asia. After all, these would earn a nice yield. Oops, there goes 40% of the principal.

Does anyone believe that this devaluation and collapse in Southeast Asia is going to be contained? Let us see. After Australia devalues its currency what do you suppose the Japanese are going to do? It appears that at current exchange rates within the region something like .5-1.0% of GDP is going to disappear next year. That's almost all of this years growth. Looks like the only choice for land of the Rising Sun will be to print up a new batch of Y-notes and go shopping. Of course they will do this in an orderly fashion. Then of course the boys in Detroit will have something to say. Our glorious leader BC, with his ear ever atuned to the shifting sounds of potential voters, will just send the word to Ron that we need a level playing field. How is this to be achieved? Why we print a few Uncle Sams and go shopping ourselves. More power Igor, keep the presses running. There a playing field to be leveled and we're just the ones to do it.

No defaults, no pain, no problems. More money for everyone. Ain't life easy in the late 20th century.

Well, glad to be in a good company of mountain men ;- )
I did A lot of mountaineering ( or just trekking ) in Alps, Dolomites, Glacier Park, Grand Teton, etc.. Many 13K + climbs. Sorry that I don't have enough time lately to go West. Appalachians are nice but elevation is lower than foothills of Rockies ;- )

Miro ( Japan just slid under 17,000 ) Where will it stop?! TRY 14000!

url did not print right. Under Features click on markets international.

badger, G'day mate, good to see you.. just missed you last night, and wanted to thank you for your Oct 25 1997 22:16. A few months ago I had the pleasure of meeting a nonagenerian retired London Jeweller, all his life he kept a store of precious and has been grateful more than twice. He despaired that his sons did not understand and was rather suprised at my goldbuggy interest, what an afternoon we spent..

Gold down .1 silver down .8 even after the unjustified slaughter..... and the beat goes on.

another black monday 10-27?

with only 5 days left, it seems logical
and has the highest probability. a huge
sell-off and re-bound for the golden-one...

the die is cast and the limb is strong,
let the party begin, again......

hep-rat is dead wrong....paper down
....gold up..

the paper-tiger has expired, and the residents of his
realm are in CHAOS because FLUX is banging on the door!!

cherokee!;'---standing-on-the-shoulders-of-giants-looking-backward-
to-see-forward---------------

Hmmm, just a slightly different take on the Asian Rout. Suppose it slows thier ecomomies and reduces our own exports to them, or changes Balance of trade? Then supposing that this mean a slight slowing of OUR economy ( Which is far from dependant on Asian trade ) , and supposing this is JUST the kind of thing that gives Greenspan warm feelings so's he doesn't raise rates and inflation stays at bay, and suppose that our market drifts lower during this scenario and becomes a little more attractive in it's fundamentals? Hmmmmm?????? Just a thought. Potential for few months long correction followed by re-emerging Bull in mid 98.

D.A.: Sounds like a duel by printing press. .... Thank God, we still make the fastest computers in the world. We will always be able to create more money, faster than anyone else. Including the Japanese. God Bless, American science and technology.

POORBOYS: When they can get computers to log on to Kitco and argue with Puetz and LGB, I'll throw in my towel. Until then...
JTF: I remember your post. I think in time ( hopefully soon ) traders will start ignoring such far out CB comments as the Dow now ignores AG's.

Wait a sec Cherokee, I think Hep was ALREADY right wasn't he? Let's give the devil his due my man! As to a crash in the next 5 days, and a Black Monday, I say we'll end the next week no more than 2% lower than where it begines and from there we'll drift for awhile. More minor drops ahead as this "Corrective phase" continues. leading to an emerginf healthy Bull in mid 98. Remeber the mini "crash" this spring when the DOW went to 6700? And promptly went to the Moon ( the full Moon? ) from there??

Miro: You're ahead of me - Mt Washington, Mt Moran and Jenny lake, Lake Louise ( Calgary ) , Mt Lassen, Mt Killington ( slept on top before chairlift installed ) , Mt Rainer ( Lodge-woken up by all the crampons at an ungoldly hour ) . Forgot Glacier. Grushenalp ( SP? ) . Just hiking for me - not crampons, pitons and picks. Worst and riskiest night was on Mt Washington - two college students died of exposure 2 weeks later. Lake in the Clouds on top of Mt Washington in early AM most exhilarating experience.

Hong Kong -500+ -5%

LGB: How about some consideration for the mountains of ( potentially ) idled means of production in Asia. All of which are, simultaneously, looking for a consumption sink in the US.

We increase our purchase of mountains of cheap imported goods at the increasing expense of domestic producers who are unable to compete on either side of the pond. .... and 'trickle down' begins to take on a new look.

LGB: More like this -- SE Asia buys less from US -- goods 20-40% more expensive. Goods 20-40% cheaper for US, unless dollar drops too. Stops US inflation in its tracks. All US based companies without access to foreign labor can't compete with competing Asian goods. End of inflation, with slower growth, or recession? How much of US economy immune to cheap SE Asian goods? Might not be a very rosy picture after all! I certainly would not want to risk it, just to stop inflation.

Oops. I just took a fresh look at my charts and graphs and have come to realize that indeed, this coming week is going to be a crash for stocks. Why has my position changed? because I realized that we're a few days from a new Moon, the Full Moon was last week, it's October, we saw a Witch and a Black cat at some eerie store in town today, and... OK OK it's getting old I know.

D.A.: I agree with you. Your post is very much inline with my thoughts. Now, for some of my thoughts:

The talking head/prostitute info machine is not going to contain this. Today the US is driven by pure entertainment crapola/payola. I think by the time Wednesday has come around things are going to be very ugly.

I still think Greenspan is going to come out with something that is really going to throw a curve ball. Who knows, maybe even the people who think he is on their team.

But, I am already on record as to what I think. I think it is a damn shame these criminal bastards have brought it this far. I mean, how much is enough? Hopefully the old adage will come true. The pigs get fat and the HOGS get slaughtered.

I can only hope.

LGB: Why don't you announce the crash to Peutz this time?
He was a little off on his timing, but I do think he deserves some credit. How many of us expected the DOW to go down as far as it has?

Kuston: Better watch out. LGB is a rocket scientist :O http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/9606/04/rocket.explode/ariane.mov

Absolutely love the stuff! The price is irrevelant once you've cast, forged, polished, engraved and just really had a go at precious. Be she Au,Ag,or even the esteamed Platinum the've all their particularly lovely attributes! I must say however that for many reasons, my favorit medium is still silver. Partly I love it for it's history and I've a soft spot for flatware and silversmithery; even antique plate! I've worked these old friends every day nye on twenty years and have yet to tire of them!

JTF, your last post speaks of DIS-inflation. then why are you bullish on gold which is an inflation hedge ?

Earl, you have a point but I'm not sure how much of a factor those "cheap" goods will be unless it genuinely translates into something that affects a signifigant part of our GNP. Japanese cars for example, are now mostly manufactured here in the Good ole US of A.

Also, he heard a lot of Gloom & Doom scare scenarios when Mexico had their crises a couple years ago, Latin America the same, etc., yet nothing really came of it. Makes me a bit skeptical that this is the "Beginning of the End". I think it'll take something a lot bigger to precipitate a rise for Gold. All out Middle East war with oil supplies threatened or greatly reduced for example. Or a return to the economic problems of the Carter years. ( Highly unlikely given current controls, fiscal policy, and political climate )

Deficit dropping, inflation low, full employment, rosy B of T, low interest rates, Booming tech. sector, Aerospace getting more orders than they can fill ( read up on Boeing ) , cold war over, LaDeDa the world is fine.... OK, there's problems but we have to keep them in historical perspective

LGB: Suppose that it does slow down their economies and produces local credit crunches ( US already announced that we will not bail them out as we did Mexico ) that will reduce access to capital, reducing their ability to export to the US. This can have an inflationary effect as the US consumers a ) switch to more expensive US-made products where there are equivalent substitutes, or b ) have to pay more for the scarcer available goods in the case of products where the Asian manufacturers hold virtual monopolies, like in electronics. Also, more expensive capital overseas translates into higher costs for their manufacturers and can also have the indirect effect of causing lending rates to rise in the US to achieve global equilibrium in the cost of credit. Either way, inflation ensues. Possible? I think so.

LGB: The simple answer to your last post is summed up in three very simple words...NO SOFT MARKETS.

Japan broke the 17000, now 16933. The dueling bear markets.........

1929 was deflationary, and gold stocks later rallied, because the profit margins in gold mining skyrocketed, due to reduced costs. To make matters even better for gold, what I expect our White Night AG to do is to turn on the dollar machine full-blast, to spend us out of deflation. That has already begun, but not full blast. The only thing that might prove me wrong would be if the commodity price indexes collapse competely! I doubt this will happen because AG has more fear of deflation than of inflation!

The Wichita Lineman: go to http://wwwstrategicinvestment.com
Go to their previous issues and rummage for articles. They make an excellent case for the fact that gold is not a good inflation hedge, but rather serves as a deflation hedge.

George Cole: I respectfully disagree with your bear market assessment of the stock market. When any type of market becomes this over-valued and as excessively leveraged as US stocks, they must continue to rise, or crash. There is no in between. A slow bear market is impossible because of the devastating effect of the initial round of margin calls once the bear market begins.

The first round of margin calls creates massive forced sales. These forced sales cause prices to drop, causing more margin calls. The process feeds on itself until the markets have crashes and the leverage has been mostly liquidated. The story is always the same. This time will be no different.

A Holloween Massace on Wall Street still looks highly likely. Watch out for October 31st. Once the support at DJIA 7500-7600 is broken, the crash will be confirmed, the panic will start. I believe that could happen tomorrow -- October 27th.

Meantime, scared investors are rushing in US Treasury Bonds. But that's no safe have. Buying the paper of a bankrupt government during a financial crisis is lunacy.

In the end, intelligent investors will seek the safety of gold and silver. The precious metals are the only safe havens in a world gone mad over financial paper.

JTF, give Puetz credit though he's a "little" off? In timing or otherwise?? I refer you to my 16:15 post of today. The DOW is up 20% in the past 52 weeks. The broad market doing even better. The S&P 500 dropped LESS than one third of ONE PERCENT this week! this is a "crash"??
The NASDAQ and S&P remain close to record highs, and both up 27+% in 52 weeks. This is a crash? Volatility remains within a single standard deviation of historic statistical norms, this is a crash? The only "crash" is in Gold!!! ( And the XAU, poor buggers )

I'd say Puetz get's ZERO credit so far. Now if we get a "crash" by Friday, I have an ongoing bet with him which will require me shining ALL his shoes ( and licking his boots to Boot! ) however, chances of that happening are quite slim in my view. Puetz "crash" number as defined by him was DOW 5750. Bring it on I say! I'll be buying hand over fist if it happens! But it won't...sigh....

Look for Bubba to sacrifice Japan through his deluded sense of getting in bed with China. Just keep watching the news...anti-japan, relaxation of china relations. It won't be long.

http://www.ticnet.com/gjd/p1473.htm

Nick: I'm with you. I've also loaded up on S&P put options during the past 6 weeks. It's do-or-die time for us stock market bears.

LGB: You've stated several times that you're ready to jump back into the PM's at 7600. Do you still think that's near the low point? I think it's likely to go to 6700-7100 ( 15-20% below the 8300 top ) before it bottoms out on this drop.

Just wanted to let you all know that I climbed Mt. Whitney on my hands TWICE in one evening under a fool Moon....duh.....I mean Full LOONEY......duh.......I'm sorry are you guys bored ALREADY with my moonwalking .....duh......I mean moon Talking? You had better not because i'm gonna dick......i mean bitch-slap myself......duh..... i Mean you guys, yeah I'm gonna Bitch-Slap you guys and you girls too.....blah blah blah blah blah blah blaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh..........bored yet?????????

Great theory on meltdown Puetz, just one problem. How come the scenario didn't play out that way when we had our drop to DOW 6700 at the end of April?? Shouldn't we have had our meltdown based on all them overleveraged stocks & margin calls????

I have been lurking here for a while and we have truly great talent at
this site.
What I don't understand that instead of bitching, complaining and rationalizing, we cannot put our collective minds together in a brainstorm excercise and come up with ideas of how to change this
manipulation thing "by parties unknown". Collectively we now hunded of thousands of people. Collectively we have ideas of how to counter-manipulate anbd/or attack, rather than freeze in a fox-hole,
waiting for the war to be over.
Can we do this ?

questionman: use all caps, they can't hear you.

LGB: I would be very happy to be convinced that the DOW will continue to gradually rally this year, and slowly rise up to 10,000 over the next two years. It's not in the cards. I don't know if we will have a real 1929 or 1987 - style crash this year, but it looks more and more likely, doesn't it? Too many things coming to a head at once! If we don't crash, it will be a near thing, and AG will probably have doubled M3 by the time the crisis is over.

The best analogy I can muster for the coming drop, it's like a freight train going thirty miles an hour. You can hit the brakes, but it is going to slide a loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong way.

LGB
This is not a crash yet - you are right.
But if and when the dow resembles HK - you will have to rethink and eat crow.
Our gold index has just been slamdunked.
NDY & NCM on news talking about projects being thrown out the door left and right.
This type of talk is doing as much damage as the swiss announcement.

Panting breathlessly after going through all the posts since last Friday afternoon!

Fast or slow or in between it's going down in a big way. We will need the red ink refill today. Watch the banks closely. Does anyone have indicators for banks' having problems?

Tsunami of goods? We'll be lucky to have any "capital" left to arrange shipments.

Cash and metals ( in hand ) otherwise you could be staring at a closed door and nothing but apologies. You can always get back in. Paper is just a promise and electrons even more so. A mirage. Ephemera. Diddly. Trust and good will are going down the toilet.

One wild ride ahead. Keep a low profile. Jealousy and envy are your enemies. Don't feed them.

LGB: Speaking to your specific, as an example; how many Japanese cars will continue to be manufactured in the US if cost differentials become a significant factor. Bearing in mind, of course, that international shipping rates will also be subject to downward pressure.

A tremendous bonanza for US consumers. For as long as the party will continue.

As for the political/financial position; nothing of note has occurred in recent years. The same mindset that has existed for the whole of my adult life remains intact. Any reduction in the present national budget imbalance is more a reflection of the recent market conditions and our position in international affairs. It does not, IMO, reflect a sober modification of past spending habits on the part of our masters. They only await the opportunity to begin some serious pump priming.

Given a downturn in US economic conditions, the deficit picture will flip dramatically, with a leveraged vengeance.

THANK YOU TOLERANT1. GOOD IDEA.
PEOPLE OF KITKO
I HAVE BEEN LURKING HERE FOR A WHILE AND WE HAVE TRULY GREAT TALENT ON THIS SITE.

WHAT I DON;T UNDERSTAND IS THAT INSTEAD OF BITCHING, COMPLAINING AND RATIONALIZING, WE CANNOT PUT OUR COLLECTIVE MINDS TOGETHER IN AN BRAINSTORM EXECRCISE AND COME UP WITH IDEAS OF HOW TO CHANGE THIS MANIPULATION THING BY PARTIES UNKNOWN.
COLLECTIVELY WE KNOW HUNDDRED OF THOUSAND OF PEOPLE.
COLLECTIVELY WE HAVE THE SYNERGY TO COUNTERATTACK OR COUNTER-MANIPULATE
RATHER THAN FREEZE IN A FOXHOLE WAITING FOR THE WAR TO BE OVER.
CAN WE DO THIS ?
CAN WE DO THIS ?
CAN WE DO THIS ?

Allen ( USA ) : Thanks for coming on board - we need a little more variety in the conversation. I'm guilty in part myself. We don't need to discuss what will happen -- all we need to do is watch and pray that this is not the big one!

Allen: Do you think cash in metal stocks is an imprudent decision at this time. I have been weighing this thought heavily before the bell tomorrow.

I'm already in PM's Jacket. Physical PLatinum & Silver. I assume you meant getting into DOW at 7600? You had it close but inverted the number. It's DOW 6700 that is my target for moving back in big time, and that all assuming we don't have some kind of devastating change in our basic domestic economy.

badger
If you love silverware why:-
a silver chalice smashed *The Americas Cup*
http://www.americascup2000.org.nz/home/news/damage/010497/
and repaired

http://www.americascup2000.org.nz/home/news/damage/140797/pictures.html

perhaps Sheller could advise if there was anything special about March 14 ( The Ides of March? ) for destroying a silver trophy? Just kidding..

RJ are you really a parrothead?

Questionman: Repost from Bob you should contact him, maybe you all can take the BOYS on - keep us posted as to your progress we may get enough courage to join you. By the way watch out that you don't get dropped off in a park some where.
Date: Fri Oct 24 1997 20:48
Bob ( @...class action suit anyone ? ) ID#258224:
Selected deep pocket shorts are manipulating the gold price using tactics that are not available to all investors - specifically, pre-arranmged borrowing of significant quanitites of physical gold to "dump" on the market with the
express purpose to drive the gold price down and corresponding repurchase arrangement at lower prices.

There is a fundamental differnce between market manipulation by a few speculators backed by CBs and everyone else who is either riding their coat-tails or getting blown-away by on an uneven playing field.

If anyone thinks as I do that there may be cause for a class action against uinfair trade practices in the gold market with particular reference to the lack of transparency and insider trading, I welcome your advice.

I propose that a class action suit ( NYC circuit ) be considered to test the ligitimacy of the trading practices we have witnessed in the gold market in the absence of fundamental changes in demand and supply.

Your advice - either publicly or privately, is kindly appreciated.

bobace@inforamp.net
As you can see I kept a copy of Bob's post for future reference for myself.

cheers

Steve Puetz
Thanks for sending you newsletter to me.
It reinforced my thoughts and provided additional recognition for the forth coming event.
OZ bank puts up 500% and climbing fast.
Those low price SPX puts are going to provide lots of buying power for my precious when the bottom has been seen by both equities and gold.
Selling in asia to pick up in afternoon panic, as many want to reduce their exposure, knowing the new trend that has been establish within the global markets.
Our OZ markets today broke major support levels specially gold.

I hear ya. I know that the Gold in A$ is higher since the RBA dump news.
I found the article a joke. I thought perhaps that some folks Downunder may be able to interpret its meaning in Canadian.

Cheers.

HIGHRISE
I UNDERSTAND WHAT U SY. HOWEVER, OUR FUNDING FATHERS WERE WILLING TO
STAND UP FOR THEIR FREEDOM, THEIR COUNTRY AND THEIR BELIEVES.
ARE WE ALL PROSTITUTES ??
I AM NOT TALKING ABOUT CLASS-SUITS - I AM TALKING ABOUT ACTION !!

I agree it's unpredictable Earl and that a downturn in our economy ( whether tied to Asian crash or not ) would be quite bearish for our market. And lead to rising deficit, debt problems, potential inflation, etc. Just trying to look at all possible scenarios. I would disagree with one thing though. The Carter years were Democrat controlled Congress, Judiciary, and Executive brach and virtually unlimited expansion of Govt.

We're still living with the effects, but at least with the Reagan, Bush presidencies, and the current Republican Congress, geuine efforts have been made to reign in spending ( and Govt. ) . This has had an extremely positive effect on our economy and our fundamental health. Had the "Carter" era continued unchecked, we'd be living the lives of the prosperous Russkies by now! ( not that I have any political opinions or anything..... )

questionman: I'd be glad to do something like you suggest if I could, but where do we start? We don't really have a clue who the big players are! We can't just petition the Hedge funds to lay off Hong Kong before we are all in deep trouble. We could petition Alan Greenspan to do something, but I think he is already doing everyhing in his power. You see, he is a gold bug, just like us! ( unless the system got to him -- but I don't think so! ) I think all we can do is hope that the Hedge funds lay off Hong Kong. Now -- you may have a point if we survive this crisis. We should petition the world powers to curb unregulated derivatives trading so that the next crisis like this doesn't wipe us out! I am willing to be part of this, and I hope some of the Wall Street crowd will see that their survival is at stake too, and join in. For the next week or so, all we can do is watch and pray! Others?

I dont think anything will help gold but some investor interest. we need the fund companies to start toutin the gold funds, that would do it. We need to take out ads on TV, we need places nammed after gold. like 'Goldsoft', 'Kentucky Fried Gold', 'Golda-Gola', 'The amazing gold-man', 'Trust Golden Condoms'. You see, gold has been taken out of the public psyche, thats the problem. I deserve the offical Kitco No-prize.

first we need to think what is being done with words.
we have very good wordsmiths too.
we have the internet and the power to sell ideas
we don't need capital but sentiment

hint: ( the pen is mightier than the sword )

Allen very interesting, did you see my earlier post re: grains backing up, we are unable to ship for various reasons? I wonder if this has anything with ability to pay or balance of trade.
There are peolple starving and we are letting the stuff pile up every where.

I believe that you missed one most important factor ( me thinks ) . It's not only who sells and buys between the US and Asia. Any company who experiences a significant drop in a stock value have a problem with financing their operation ( e.g., credit rating, capability to cash on stocks, etc.. ) this will lead to loan defaults and requirement to bring additional money to circulation to cover for it. As I see it, the only way to cover this blood bath is to bring money back from the US market. What will that do to the US markets?! I don't know why is everybody taking a very simplistic approach - markets in Asia down so money must flow to a safe heaven in the USA. I don't think so!! If your house is falling down you don't go on using your money to fix your neighbor's roof ( no matter that he will pay you back high interest )

Poor Horses rearendMan or whatever he calls himself. He wants SO badly to join in the discussion here, yet he has nothing to say, no original thoughts of his own, no working neurons or grasp of what the discussions are about.

So he just keeps babbling about LGB, LGB, LGB. ( and about Bitches, & Hoochies or something like that ) . It's OK HorseArseMan, you can keep posting here, but remember the clocks were turned back this morning and your biological clock already has you WAY past your bedtime!

( P.S. if you want to get into a pissing contest with me, I require at least a modicum of intelligent, decentlt thought out insults first. You havn't even said anything about my mother yet dude, you fall WAY short of what it takes! )

questionman- Interesting idea! Words in the right ears? We need to know where to send those words outside our little group at Kitco. I've got a full day of work tomorrow, but I'll think about that -- you are right -- we have forgotten about our new tool- the internet. We need a list of e-mail addresses. Good night all!

JTF: Any comparison of our position in 1929 to today must always be weighted by the the relative financial and economic position of the US in both periods. IMO, its the key to understanding our future course.

In '29 we were a wealthy nation in terms of natural resources and productive capacity. More than that, we were essentially debt free. Now we are dependent on the felicity of most of the world in each of those elements. ...... and we are up to our ears in debt.

Anything that bears on our ability to service that debt will have dire consequences for the US.

As indebted citizens and as a nation, we have sold forward our productive capacity for a long time to come. It now remains for others to decide if we can or will make good on the promise of repayment or not. ...... Thumbs up or thumbs down? We are in the process of finding out.

Re your "Funding Fathers" post, was that a Freudian slip or intentional? ;- )

LGB:
You are one of the sharp minds we need to focus on the solution.

Example:
The Swisss CB only used words - no gold, no bucks
Greenspan only uses words, no bucks, no %
You have penty of words
together we have all thye words you need.
take your anger and shoot it like a bullet to the real source of frustration

Earl: You are right. 1929 was crushing, but we were not in anywhere as much debt as now -- so now we have a very thin cushion. Let us pray that our White Night Alan Greenspan brings us through the reef to the safety of the harbor! GOOD NIGHT- save some energy for tomorrow - we may need it!

STAND ON YOUR HEAD....the gold chart looks GREAT! The Aussie All Ords is UP 83 points...the Aussie gold index is UP 140 points....NDY , LHG and AAA all climbing, and the Hang Seng chart looks a dream from this position. Great for the aching back too ( EB won't need the back-cracker )

Hey, man, I just REPORT the news. I don't really believe this stuff! But LGB DID ask for some demonstrable correlations. http://wwnonline.com/special.htm

http://www.familyjeweler.com
Boy, I sell gold for $1,200/oz every day of the week. Whats up with you guys? Bitch, bitch, bitch, when's the end of the world coming?

QUESTIONMAN:
http://www.khouse.org/fedreser.html

Vronsky and George Cole: That was the 1919 Chicago White Sox ( dubbed the Black Sox ) when Shoeless Joe Jackson and others on the team threw the World Series. I agree, the London "Fix" is not the quaint term I first thought it was. It really is fixed isn't it.

Borrowed from Bill Buckler:
"In the words of Ayn Rand: "Don't bother to examine a folly, ask yourself only what it accomplishes."

You describe a crash senario that depends on related contingent events. Since the 87 crash the US exchanges and the FED have instituted breakers and liquidity plans, respectively. The Japs own alot of US paper and while the financial cards are folding in Asia the question remains whether liquidity will come from a conversion of US paper owned by the Japs or will Uncle Sam come to the rescue with a Deal - much like the Mexico save a few years back. The bottom line is that although we may be witnessing the beginning of a real correction in the stox Bull we will also likely see a US-Japan save even as crisis management will likely kick-in before things get out-of-control. Its all part of the New Era - something like, well, communism. Think about it. ;- )

Cheers.

Jesus and his apostles, Buddha, Mohammed, Lenin, Hitler, Mao and
others had no money.
They used words to create the society they wanted

LGB: I meant PM=Paper Markets. I guess we agree about the jumping-in point. Hmmm...there must be some cosmic significance to that and someone at Kitco can analyze it to predict something. G'night all. Gotta go now. Business trip tomorrow. Check in on Thursday when I get back home.

digdeep: Don't trouble yourself. The Gold-Eagle site has the May speech be Armstrong summarized in an editorial by Oracle. I just wondered whether you had some more recent information. I hit upon NJ and Millhouse from time to time to tell us about what Armstrong is forecasting because he seems to be spot on these past few months with exchange rates, stock markets, gold, and interest rates. Also, I like the underlying thesis that he uses for forecasting ( cycle analysis ) and as deep throat so aptly put it "follow the money". Thanks anyway. You're a scholar and a gentleman and there are damn few of us left.

Hello...everybody has and continues to say that we the American people owe all this money. I never signed a note for squat. The reserve is a private entity. The Government is not, and the customer that has spent the money.

Now how do the third party, us, get dragged in to the bill of a bad debtor, from a creditor that never had any money to start when it lent the money in the first place.

I am sorry Questionman I agree with you but I have to much on my plate right now. And besides I am not sure God wants me crucified
just yet.

What is the URL for the Kitco frames version ? Thanks.

Ronnnnn, I'm DYI'ng here! Damn I havn't laughed so hard in months, that was a GREAT site! Wish I'd have found it myself and posted it! Problem now is that Puetz, Sheller, Colleen and company will look it up and incorporate it into their "predictive investment models"! That site is PRECIOUS, thanks again.

( Holding his sides and howling with unbridled laughter as his family look son wondering what demented computer joke he's up to, LGB )

LGB:
a pointed gun has no room for freudian slips.
one creates reality with INTENT
stop knitting and start THINKING

LGB: At the risk of becoming argumentative ( never a consideration :- ) ) ; I would submit that a national debt that grew from 1 trillion ( post Carter ) , to the present level of nearly 6 trillion, is hardly a picture of fiscal rectitude on the part of our masters. Regardless of party.

Also bear in mind that we managed to take 200 years to aquire the first 1 trillion in debt and needed less than 20 more to increase it by a factor of 6. In addition, we fought several major wars and built a nation with the first 1 trillion. ........ What have we accomplished with the remainder?

Earl: We have cable.

highrise
i understand. sometimes it is difficult to put on's true values into perspective. it happens some times to me. probably even to cherokee

Questionman re your 23:10. The problem with focusing my "anger" at the REAL source of my frustrations, using word power, is that I'm still laughing too damn hard at that site Ron so generously posted!

Ahhh, well yes I'll try and whip up that Angry man self righteousness of mine once again but give me a day or so will ya??

With you all the way there Earl, but how much worse would it have been? And is the 6 trillion, adjusted for inflation, at least somewhat mitigated by the realtive growth in GNP, money supply, overall economic conditons, etc.

Example, we now have the highest rate of personal Homeownership in our Nation's history. In spite of huge population gains ( mostly due to immigration though ) since Carter.

LGB:
i understand. i sometimes use laughter myself to distract myself from real issues that require action.

Sunday October 26 9:08 PM EST

HK gold opens firmer after sharply New York fall

HONG KONG, Oct 27 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong gold opened firmer in early Monday trading after its sharp declines in New York on Friday, but dealers said they expected the metal to continue softening later.

Bullion opened at US$309.30/80 an ounce against New York's US$308.75/309.25 close on Friday.

``Gold was pushed down to new 12-year lows by news of the Swiss proposal to sell 1,400 tonnes of gold,'' said a dealer at a local investment house. ``A softer tone is seen in the absence of positive factors and I suppose gold will come off later.''

Local gold opened HK$8 lower at HK$2,858 a tael.

New Investment research site. http://wwnonline.com/main.htm You will find this a valuable resource.

tolerant 1: "Earl: We have cable." ...... I know. I pay the bill each month. Now the deeper question is: Why?

LGB: Didncha luv the El Nio "Chart?" My back's out this weekend ( OUCH! ) . I can't make any sudden moves: no sneezing, no coughing, and especially, no laughing. But, lordy, am I ever in PAIN since I found http://wwnonline.com/ Thanks, Matt Drudge, but I'm gonna hafta SUE somebody. OUCH, ouch, . . . hee hee . . . :- )

PEOPLE OF KITKO !!
i know shouting IS not polite.
MOST ACTION IS NOT POLITE.
I CAN SWEAR FLUENTLY IN 4 LANGUAGES. WOULD IT HELP IF U GOT
YOUR ADRENALINE UP - U NEED ME TO HEPCAT U ?

I REPEAT THAT WE HAVE TRULY GREAT TALENT ON THIS SITE.

WHAT I DON;T UNDERSTAND IS THAT INSTEAD OF BITCHING,
COMPLAINING AND RATIONALIZING, WE CANNOT PUT OUR COLLECTIVE
MINDS TOGETHER IN AN BRAINSTORM EXECRCISE AND COME UP WITH
IDEAS OF HOW TO CHANGE THIS MANIPULATION THING BY PARTIES
UNKNOWN.
COLLECTIVELY WE KNOW HUNDDRED OF THOUSAND OF PEOPLE.
COLLECTIVELY WE HAVE THE SYNERGY TO COUNTERATTACK OR
COUNTER-MANIPULATE
RATHER THAN FREEZE IN A FOXHOLE WAITING FOR THE WAR TO BE
OVER.
WE HAVE THE WORDS
WE HAVE THE WEB
WE KNOW ALL KIND OF PEOPLE
CAN WE DO THIS ?

LGB: I had to find out what was so funny about that site. It's a regular riot!! Four stars!!
RON: Great post. Do you think they need some palladium for their catalytic converters?? From the amount of exhaust I calculate 20 tons at least! They could help us out at the same time we help them!!! For another out-of-this-world site check out http://www.kli.org and you'll see what else people do when they have too much time on their hands.

castrado = no tienen cojones
= por lo tanto no pueden joder
= pero le gusta hablar de joder

translation:
castrated = no balls
= they can't do it
= but they like to talk about doing it

Snoop, me fat falangees will occasionally overide me lean grey matter.

Oh yeah I DID love the "chart", it was priceless! Forgive me for plagarizing and posting the main home page link to Puetz, Sheller, and Colleen but I felt it was a must for their ongoing research! Gawwd I'm still laughing.....