Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:29 - ID#215208)
What's the trick this time? I can't read any posts. Maybe this will get thru, but I am blind.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:31 - ID#215208)
I see my last post but no others. Are you all carrying on normal conversations in som other space/time continuum?

Granville gold Rally
(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:32 - ID#432220)
The best possible news for GOLD is that Joe Granville stated in his CNBC interview today that he hates gold. Based upon objective evaluations of analysts performance from 1990-1996, this is the best possible indication GOLD IS HEADING HIGHER.

Consider the "value" of the recommendations of the GRANVILLE MARKET LETTER. Earlier this year Mark Hulbert, FORBES MAGAZINE columnist, published his annual performance ratings of the 80 best known US market analysts. The tabulated results may be seen in its entirety with comparative figures for the period 1990-1996. To see JOE GRANVILLE's pathetic "performance," just scroll down to GRANVILLE MARKET LETTER:>

GRANVILLE "won" the dubious distinction of being ranked NEXT TO LAST AMONG THE 80 ANALYSTS. His annual "GAIN" WAS A NEGATIVE 28.6%. That is to say his recommended investment portfolio showed a LOSS OF 28.6% per year for six years - back to back. That's quite a feat. A $10,000 investment in 1990 would have been systematically reduced to a measly $1,325 in six years. In sharp contrast the broader market index APPRECIATED 18.8% PER YEAR DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

Needless to say GRANVILLE'S negative opinion on GOLD as expressed today ON NATIONAL TV is the best possible reliable indicator that the noble metal is about to soar!

Thanks for the Gold plug today, Joe - you already got it up $4 and XAU heading for UP 5!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:32 - ID#26793)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:33 - ID#401460)
Home Sales down Building permits UP The Home Builders Better Watchout.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:33 - ID#26793)
DJ: You and I have been given the opportunity to start over with a clean slate!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:33 - ID#215208)
Company arrives!
Hello Donald! Are we alone here?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:34 - ID#215208)
Is it just me?
I can't see any posts before 11:29. Is it just me?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:35 - ID#408152)
in sacramento
October 29, 1997

Non-Panic of '97

This was not It.

In July, just as the stock market was reaching its peak, I donned my sandwich boards and wrote: "You're going to see a correction one of these days
that will curl your hair, followed by a year in the doldrums before the next recovery. . . . Repent! The end is near."

Greed being what it is, I didn't dump much after my own jeremiad, which is why nobody can hate me after the babyboomers' babybust and

But this was not a hair-curler. Instead, it was the shakeout of nervous professionals who were looking for some outside event to justify a rush to lock
in the year's profits.

Turmoil in the Asian markets, reflecting incipient deflation there, was the cathartic our traders were waiting for. America's small investor, however, was
not suckered by all the globalony. When market averages backed 10 to 15 percent off their highs, the little guy resisted all chicken-littling. Only the
market, not the sky, was falling.

What explains the Non-Panic of '97?

It was not Robert Rubin standing on the steps of the Treasury saying "the fundamental economy is strong." Such pronouncements by government
officials smack of "prosperity is just around the corner"; they reassure nobody.

One reason for the non-panic was that the media, which love anniversaries, have been reminding us for weeks of the 22 percent market break of '87,
compared with which Gray Monday's drop of 7 percent was not so terrible. "Selloff" was the preferred term of commentators; few used the scarier
term "crash."

A better reason is that the fundament is strong. Inflation and unemployment are down, and growth and profits are up.

Global domino effect? A worry but not a panicker; any drop in demand for our exports to Asia is not going to put much of a crimp in our huge national
product. And Asian investors aren't crazy; they'll look for safe havens, of which there are no safer than U.S. stocks and bonds.

That's why this week's market turmoil is not It. Like Californians after a mild quake, we can say, "But this wasn't the Big One."

There is a good message in all the bouncing down and up, however, to be directed to the new-age, new-paradigm new-economists who waltz hand in
hand with Goldilocks and Rosie Scenario.

That message is: There are other ways to go besides up. Just as the fluctuating nature of the stock market has not been fundamentally altered by the
end of the cold war or the beginning of the globalized computer age, economies will stumble and recover as they have in the past.

Just as markets breathe, economies breathe. That natural inhaling and exhaling, contraction and expansion, means that the business cycle has not been
steamrollered into permanent flatness. Someday we will have a recession.

A market drop may not trigger a recession, but a recession always harms the stock market. Reduced profits reduce tax revenues and increase the
budget deficit.

Now to the big lesson we can draw from the market's wake-up call. President Clinton proudly pointed to the shrinking of our deficit to the lowest in
decades. His economists see the deficit in the fiscal year that ended last month to be $22 billion.

But in February of this year, the Office of Management and Budget was predicting a deficit of $125 billion. It was off by $100 billion, plus change, not
because of any spending restraint but because an economic boom produced greater revenues.

If we can be that wrong on the downside, we can be that wrong on the upside. As recession follows prosperity ( as night follows day, and as market
shakeouts follow run-ups ) , then all the optimistic budget agreements on which we base our spending and taxing will be knocked into a cocked hat.

The message this week is that markets have a downside, and that it is wise to keep a little cash on the side. Economies also have a downside, and it
would be wise for our political leaders to treat as hogwash the predictions of the new-era economists that the only way is up.

Hand me those sandwich boards. As I was saying about a market break before a real recession, Repent! The end is near.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:36 - ID#346140)
DJ - I finally got through after getting:

Error: 403--forbidden
Error description:
Error: you don't have permission to access ``/''

Very scary indeed ( did Kitco "crash" ) ?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:37 - ID#215208)
I guess we are back to normal, but lost the morning posts. Oh well, that's history by now, in this fast paced world.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:40 - ID#401460)
ERROR 403?
I finally got through where we sabotaged or was it because I mentioned his "Bent Thingy"?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:42 - ID#20135)
Well, it seems now that the Dow is -.98, they think it is safe to let us talk again. Amazing that every time something big is happening -- kitco goes down..... Well, it is nice to have it up anyway.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:42 - ID#285233)
Mutual Problems

Companies unable to price funds

By Frank Barnako
10/30/97 06:07 AM ET

Also on CBS
Market Snapshot

NEW YORK -- Amid the market turbulence, some U.S. mutual fund companies have been
unable this week to tell investors what their shares are worth.

The companies include Fidelity Investments, John Hancock, Eaton Vance,
Norwest, Salomon Brothers and Vista Funds, according to the New York Times. The
worst problems seem to have been at Fidelity where not only was the firm unable to report
prices for mainstays like Magellan and Equity Income, it also reported incorrect valuations for
as many as 18 other funds.

A senior vice president with Fidelity's parent, FMR Corporation, said one reason for the
problem occurred Tuesday when a Nasdaq computer which handles fund price information
closed early, and before Fidelity was able to report is data. A spokesman for Nasdaq
concedes the early shutdown, but contests Fidelity's assertion the closing was also
responsible for causing miscalculations of fund prices, the Times reported. Several other fund
companies explained their troubles resulted because of uncertainty about securities prices and
the failure of pricing data to be reported by information suppliers. By Thursday morning,
however, the companies said their fund prices were full and complete and accurate.

Fund managers unfamiliar for volatility

One reason for the past five trading days' volatility may be that relatively-new fund managers
are getting on-the-job training. In Boston, a fund research firm reports the vast majority of
funds' managers are new. Micropol Inc. reviewed 4,000 U.S. stock funds, and found only
11 percent of them are managed by the same people who were running them in 1987, the Wall
Street Journal reported. The research company's analyst, David Masters, said "There is a
lack of experience, so the reactions tend to be more extreme, "extreme indifference, extreme
concern or extreme confidence - rather than the measured approach of an old hand." The
manager of Skyline Special Equites II funds supported Masters' comment. Ken Kailen
said, "I think some of the younger managers got emotional this week," he told the Journal. He
added, he can understand that kind of reaction. During the '87 crash, he said, "I remember
thinking, 'Three more days of this and there won't be a stock market.'"

George Cole
(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:43 - ID#42953)
Gold and deflation
Bart: Why is it that every time the gold market heats up this excellent site goes down?

Looks like that big move I wrote about this morning started even sooner than I thought. And it is in the right direction!

Wonder if the tighter margin requirements on the Comex had anything to do with this. These will make it more costly for the shorts and may be a signal the powers that be do not want to push the yellow down any further. With concern about DEFLATION battering the markets, further weakness in gold at this point might accelerate the equity market selloff.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:44 - ID#258129)
HighRise: I had 403 error too...

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:45 - ID#433171)
Stocks are oversold in light of that. Cheap labor folks !! The market is going to fool most of the people most of the time. But I sure made a killing on my Dell puts. Got to know when to hold them and fold them

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:47 - ID#401460)
Gold UP Kitco OFF??
Well sucks I leave the room, come back and I missed "The DIP"

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:48 - ID#225283)
sell em off

I guess I have this site to myself again today......I predict a sell off of DAL ( Delta Air Lines ) stock today and friday...
rebound to follow....Who says a few players cannot manipulate a stock...It has been going on all week..

VRONSY..Top quility post regarding 1000 year bond...nice way to fund expansion and M&A if you happen to be Republic. Not to mention that corporate bond defaults will skyrocket if --it hits the fan as all of the KItco poster children claim.There seams to be a widening spread between high-quality and lower-quality debt instruments.

Bart I wish you luck with the problems of posters gaining access to the sight.I know it can be frustrating

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:50 - ID#433171)
A deal cut with China will hammer gold. Thats the way it goes.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:50 - ID#31868)
Amazing, the strength of the market is the little guy, so say the puppets at CNBC. 84% are in for the long haul for retirement. The inevitable reality of any bull market is a bear market. Or so history tells us.

These people are gambling their future at a time of unprecedented, over valued equities.

May their god's help them.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:54 - ID#262242)
To all:
IMHO we are having a difficult time accessing Kitco because their ISP is overloaded. There are a lot of lurkers ( I am one ) who access the site everyday and very seldom post. We look forward to the wit & wisdom of you regulars.

Be calm, be patient and keep trying.

God Bless you all in the chaotic days to come

Steve - Perth
(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:55 - ID#284177)
Yes, we got the "error" too, but we finally crashed through....

The latest from this morning's Australian Financial Review ( FRI 31st Oct )

Not everyone buys Greenspan's
'wealth effect'

Washington Observed, by Colleen Ryan

Alan Greenspan was playing his favourite role as sage of
the markets, cult figure of the economists, as he sat
before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress
yesterday and like a wise grandfather pontificated that "a
little bit of poverty never hurt anybody".

The chairman of the Federal Reserve postulated, in
effect, that the downturn in world stockmarkets this
week, would have the salutary effect of pulling back
demand. The wealth effect would kick in, instability
would be arrested and the bulwark of the US economy
would continue.

It wasn't quite "I told you so". But it was close.

"I suspect earnings expectations and equity prices in the
United States were primed to adjust," the Fed chairman
said. "If it was not developments in South-East Asia,
something else would have been the proximate cause for

But why the self-satisfied, sanguine approach? Wall
Street is still about 1100 points higher than it was last
December when Greenspan made his historic statement
about "irrational exuberance". He was either wrong then
or he is wrong now -- and the markets have a lot further
to fall. Or so say the critics.

Stephen Roach, chief economist for Morgan Stanley ( and
a bit of a cult figure in the markets himself ) , is not buying
Greenspan's view of the benefits of the wealth effect
either. He points back to 1987 -- a far more dramatic
interlude for world stockmarkets -- and claims that the
wealth effect didn't kick in then.

"If the wealth effect didn't do anything back then, it will
not even come close to triggering the type of moderating
influence that the Fed chairman is anticipating now,"
Roach said yesterday.

He predicts that there will be a rise in interest rates in
early 1998 and speculates that "we are only part of the
way there in a ( market ) correction. We have got a long
way to go to get down to where ( Greenspan's ) comfort
zone would click in."

The Fed chairman had some particularly interesting views
yesterday on a clutch of other issues.

Such as the role of the US in bailouts in Asia; the role of
real estate lending in undermining banking systems; the
impact of Japan on the US; the nexus of the dollar-yen
rate and its effect on the currency crises in Asia; and his
view that the contagion of the Asian currency crises will
be greater than, say, Mexico in the 1980s because of the
rapid increase in globalisation since then.

He is far more forthright on the impact of the Asian crises
on the US economy than many other commentators have
been. He doesn't expect the effects to be great -- but
they will be there.

And, Greenspan cautioned "while we may not be directly
involved in a lot of it, we do have a significant interest that
it gets resolved effectively, because if it does not, then I
think the impact on us will become immeasurably larger".

Greenspan also focused on the effects on Japan. "To the
extent that it impacts negatively on Japan, which is such a
potent factor in Asia, obviously it impacts on us, as
indeed the difficulties of any of our major trading partners
creates problems for us."

On bailouts in Asia, the US has been significantly absent
as a direct contributor to rescue packages.

It contributes to the IMF of course, as do all developed
nations. In the case of Mexico in 1995, it put up
$US50bn for the rescue -- but it has kept its hands in its
voluminous pockets thus far in the recent Asian crisis.

Greenspan's contribution on this issue yesterday was
rather muted -- but he did make the point, twice, that
direct contributions were appropriate.

"We need to work closely with ( Asian ) leaders and the
international financial community to ensure that their
situations stabilise. It is in the interests of the United
States and other nations around the world to encourage
appropriate policy adjustments and, where required,
provide temporary financial assistance."

Edith Terry, a fellow at the Economic Strategy Institute in
Washington, points out that, while the US hasn't
contributed money to the bailouts, it has been active in
urging Japan to do so. And it has been active in "dumping
buckets and buckets of cold water" on any proposal for
a regional bailout fund.

Terry points to the substantial dollar reserves in the Asian
region and the need for the US to have concern.

"The six or seven largest countries in Asia, including
Japan and China, account for the world's largest
collection of dollar reserves -- around $US700bn. It is
large enough to mount a counter attack if the US comes
up with a strategy that is perceived to be damaging to the
Asian region," she points out.

Greenspan referred yesterday to the readjustment of the
dollar-yen rate as one of the causes of the recent
currency crises.

"The currencies of these economies were closely tied to
the US dollar, and the dollar's substantial recovery since
mid-1995, especially relative to the yen, made their
exports less competitive."

Joseph Stiglitz, the World Bank's chief economist,
pointed to the appreciation of the dollar against the yen
as a major factor in the instability, earlier this week.

And Alan Meltzer of the American Enterprise Institute
sees it as the major problem for the South-East Asian

"The problem they have been having is a fixed exchange
rate which had not been adjusted to allow for the
changed relationship between the yen and the dollar. For
Indonesia and Thailand, 25 to 30 per cent of their
exports go to Japan. Plus they were facing much stronger
competition from China who had devalued earlier."

Greenspan was at his most eloquent on the issue of
contagion. "Our concern is that the contagion that has
occurred, be contained . . . there is a new pattern of
flows of capital which have become extraordinarily large.

"And while it is clearly required to facilitate the expansion
of international trade in goods and services and standards
of living, it is something new that we have to focus on and

"The issue that is involved here is that we're going back
to an ever increasing globalisation, which we really
haven't experienced for a hundred years.

"We had the very substantial free world system at the end
of the 19th century, and then, especially after World War
I, it began to get narrower and narrower. And then with
the Depression we all just shut our doors, we had Smoot
Hawley and everyone pulled in their horns, and it was an
autarchic society.

"We're reversing that and I think it is tremendously

Except when markets go into free fall around the world.

 This material is subject to copyright and any
unauthorised use, copying or mirroring is prohibited

(Thu Oct 30 1997 11:58 - ID#194311)
SOROS is one of us
George Soros warns of inherent market instability
LONDON, Oct 30 ( AFP ) - Billionaire speculator George Soros
warned of the "unexpected" and "chaotic" movement of financial
markets, which might ultimately "destroy society" in a press
interview published on Thursday.
"They can move in unexpected ways and become choatic. I'm afraid
that the prevailing view, which is one of extending the market
mechanism to all domains, has the potential of destroying society,"
Soros said.
He said in the left-leaning New Statesman magazine that "unless
we review our concepts of markets, our understanding of markets,
they will collapse, because we are creating global markets, global
financial markets, without understanding their true nature."
Soros, reputed to have made a billion pounds ( 1.6 billion
dollars ) when he laid siege to the pound sterling and ejected it
from the European exchange rate mechanism ( ERM ) in 1992, gave his
interview last May, ahead of the latest turmoil to whip through the
"We have this false theory that markets, left to their own
devices, tend towards equilibrium," he added.
The financier, who has most recently raised the ire of Malaysian
Premier Mahathir Mohamad amid fierce speculative onslaught against
the Malaysian ringgit, said that central banks sought to intervene
to control the markets.
He said that the US authorities, and in particular Federal
Reseve chairman Alan Greenspan, US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin
and his under secretary Lawrence Summers "have a pretty good
understanding" of the markets.
"These are people in whom I have confidence. They understand
markets about as well as one can," Soros said, in contrast to
Japanese authorities, who have sought to manipulate markets to suit
their own needs.
Soros said that the financial system had survived in its present
form thanks to government intervention.
"It has survived only with intervention: the authorities have
come to the rescue," Soros said.
The market man predicted that the global market breakdown "will
come through political and eventually military events, rather than
events merely in the financial markets."

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:01 - ID#30116)
Back up again! O.K. So gold is up some. If you guys ( the powers that be ) want to put the kybosh on a stock rally, let gold go up about $40 in the next month or so. That should do it nicely AG... No rate hikes needed, let the bond market do its' thing. Stocks will follow....

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:05 - ID#194311)
Honk Kong Pong
Hong Kong's banks are strong but not invulerable
HONG KONG, Oct 30 ( AFP ) - Hong Kong's banks are in a better
position than others in Asia to resist the current financial crisis
but they remain vulnerable, according to specialists here.
Despite the spectacular rise in the Hang Seng index Wednesday
even the most optimist analysts admit the deflation which has
affected stocks since mid-August will hit property stocks. And there
is no banking sector in the world more exposed to the property
sector than in Hong Kong.
"Overall, we are not too worried about the banks in Hong Kong,"
said Philippe Delhaise, the Asia president of Thomson BankWatch, the
ratings agency that specialises in banks.
"They are very efficient, they can afford to have slim margins,
they can weather the crisis," he said, presenting the bank's annual
study on commercial banks in the region.
"In terms of profitability, liquidity, capital ratios and assets
quality, banks in Hong Kong are the best of Asia and can take a
punch," he said.
But to be the best in Asia does not mean you are invulnerable,
Delhaise added.
"Asia is not North America or Europe. It's not valid here to
look at banks by looking at the official ratios," he said.
"There are all sort of ways to make a bad loan look better."
Even in well-regulated markets like Singapore "disclosure is
minimal," he said.

Moody's downgrades ratings for Hong Kong banks
HONG KONG, Oct 30 ( AFP ) - Ratings agency Moody's Investors
Service on Thursday downgraded its outlook for Hong Kong banks from
stable to negative, citing market volatility and bank exposure to
the property sector.
It also launched a review of its assessment of the strength of
Hong Kong's two biggest banks, Hang Seng Bank and Hongkong and
Shanghai Banking Corporation ( HSBC ) , "for a possible downgrade."
Rival ratings agency Standard and Poor's has no plans at present
to revise its credit ratings for Hong Kong banks, according to group
business development manager Agnes Lee.
The Moody's move came after a tumultuous week of trading on the
Hong Kong bourse, which has seen the key Hang Seng index both rise
and fall by record points margins.
The downgrade takes the market volatility into account, as well
as the exposure of local banks to the property sector, which is
experiencing a downturn, the US ratings agency said in a statement.
"These actions reflect its concern regarding a potential
deterioration in operating conditions," it said.
Moody's also "has concerns over the possible negative impact of
currency pressures on the prospects for Hong Kong trade, especially
in light of the significant currency depreciation experienced in
southeast Asia," it added.
The region has been embroiled in an escalating currency crisis
since the July float of the Thai baht and the US dollar has since
surged up to 50 percent against southeast Asian units since then.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:05 - ID#285233)
We will see what the little guy will do once the market is down say more than 20-25%. Let's not forget that the little guy ( 80% per CNBC "poll" ) also expects annual gains to EXCEED 30% indefinately. If true, this just shows you the kind of total idiots now participating in the market. And by the way, I don't feel sorry for them.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:06 - ID#194311)
i wonder if they can hold gold
South Korea bans hoarding of foreign exchange
SEOUL, Oct 30 ( AFP ) - The South Korean government Thursday
slapped a ban on hoarding foreign exchange amid the ongoing currency
turmoil, officials said.
"Effective today, the purchase of foreign exchange for hoarding
is banned," an official of the finance and economy ministry told
"This measure will continue for a while until the bubble over
the dollar disappears," he said.
In the past, individuals were allowed to buy foreign exchange up
to 20,000 dollars for portfolio purposes and keep it in foreign
exchange accounts or in their home, but this practice is now
But people can still buy dollars for overseas travel or
transfers abroad on presentation of proof.
The government, under instructions issued by the finance
ministry late Wednesday, has also asked banks and other financial
institutions to refrain from buying dollars for speculation, the
official said.

Steve - Perth
(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:06 - ID#284177)
Americans eyeing off Australian paper stocks in light of Asian meltdown.

There has NOT been any decent analysis of the downturn effect on the USA or Australia yet. While heading in the right direction, the flow on effect of their deflation is horrific.

Thursday October 30 11:20 AM EST
Global investors edgy about Japan, China outlook
By Cal Mankowski

NEW YORK, Oct 30 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong's economic woes, which triggered a chain reaction in stock markets around the world, are also sending a danger signal that the economic malaise in Southeast Asia could spread to China's mainland and Japan.

With world markets resuming their slide Thursday, investors were on edge trying to decide how many dominoes would eventually fall.

``Certainly there is a risk for adverse consequences,'' said Gregory Fager, economist with the Institute of International Finance in Washington.

He noted that roughly 40 percent of Japan's exports go to other countries in Asia and that China's growth has slowed. ``China's total imports are up about two percent in the first nine months of this
year, I wouldn't call that real robust.'' he said.

``The Asian markets started going down and disconnecting several months ago'' beginning with Thailand's currency devluation, said Mike Wolf, executive vice president and senior portfolio manager at American Express Asset Management.

Wolf adds that there are fears Japan's economic recovery may be delayed by the events in Southeast Asia.

But he said the slowdown in Asia also focuses renewed attention on the U.S. as ``the most desirable market in the world.''

``I think the biggest damage has been to investor psychology,'' said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer for First Albany Co, assessing the damage in the U.S.

``Hong Kong was a large straw that broke a strong camel's back,'' said Johnson. ``There was some reaction when the crisis moved from Thailand to Indonesia to Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore. but when it got to Hong Kong everyone became aware that this is a much bigger and a
very significant problem.''

``Hong Kong accelerated what was already in place, it did not initiate the reaction,'' said Rao Chalasani, chief investment strategist at EVEREN Securities.

He noted that the U.S. market showed signs of weakness earlier this year on concerns about overvaluation of certain blue chips. But he said the anxiety level around the globe has been raised becuase Hong Kong is seen as the gateway to China itself.

Analysts focusing on the U.S. market have spent the week pumping new numbers into their 1998 models for the stock market and trying to decide the net impact of a dampening effect on profits due to the Asian slowdown and the coincidental effect of a more stable U.S. interest rate environment.

With the Dow industrial average ending Wednesday at the 7507 level after an eight-point gain, Johnson said he was looking at a potential gain of 12 percent for the U.S. stock market over the next 12 months. His forecast includes a dip in the long term U.S. interest rate to just below 6.0 percent late in 1998 compared to about 6.15 percent currently.

Wolf said he expects U.S. interest rates to stay unchanged going into 1998 and against that backdrop he expects a 10 percent total return in U.S. equities over the next 12 months.

But some money managers say the dramatic decline in Hong Kong smacks of a rare buying opportunity.

The Hang Seng Index dropped 402.44 points or 3.74 percent to 10,362.86 Thursday on fears of a further slide on Wall Street after Moody's downgraded the outlook for Hong Kong Banks.

``Until two weeks ago, Hong Kong was regarded as one of the safe havens of Asia,'' said David Thomas, manager of the Putnam Investments Asia/Pacific Growth Fund. He said the Hong Kong market is very widely held and the stocks that trade there are very marketable. After a 40 percent decline in Hong Kong, Thomas began taking a serious look at buying Hong Kong stocks.

One situation Thomas is eyeing is Australia, where he said the pulp and paper business could suffer if products are dumped on the market by Southeast Asian producers.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:08 - ID#391195)
Playing Hookie From Work.....
ALL....Sometime back there was great debate about what would happen to the PM stocks in the event of a stock market downturn. I suppose that question got answered for all of you on Monday of this week. Unless gold is significantly stronger at the same time, then PM stocks move down with the rest of the equities.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:09 - ID#262242)
To all:
IMHO we are having a difficult time accessing Kitco because their ISP is overloaded. There are a lot of lurkers ( I am one ) who access the site everyday and very seldom post. We look forward to the wit &
wisdom of you regulars.

Be calm, be patient and keep trying.

God Bless you all in the chaotic days to come

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:12 - ID#194311)
wiped out by the big one....
Niederhoffer Hit by Stock Plunge
Niederhoffer Investments Inc., a major commodity trading
adviser, says its funds may have been wiped out by the stock
market's plunge early this week. Company President Victor
Niederhoffer says losses stemmed from positions in S&P 500
futures options, and left the funds unable to meet the minimum
requirements for the maintenance of their margin accounts. He
said the losses Monday totaled ``approximately the size of our
fund.'' December S&P futures fell 70.00 points to settle at
874.00 Monday. The December S&Ps rallied Tuesday to gain 50.50
points to 924.50, the biggest one-day point rise. But
Niederhoffer says the losing positions were liquidated before
the rebound.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:13 - ID#30116)
The most curious thing of all is human nature. If the market doesn't tank, it will take off like a scalded cat! I'm firm believer in blow offs! If all of this buying causes share prices to hold, then at some point, one additional share will be purchased which will set the upside frenzy off! If that happened, anything is possible, like a 10,000 Dow or more. It would just be the manic last phase of the market that will leave everyone breathless, and dying to get in! We all know what the problem is then. How do you pop a bubble without breaking it? Answer; You can't.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:14 - ID#194311)
ANOTHER crude rise
Crude prices rise on UN-Iraq tensions
LONDON, Oct 30 ( AFP ) - Brent North Sea crude prices rose on
renewed tension between Baghdad and the United Nations ( UN ) early on
The price of Brent crude rose to 19.86 dollars per barrel, which
was 21 cents higher than at the close of official trading on
Wednesday, before dropping back slightly.
On Wednesday, prices closed 10 cents higher.
Baghdad on Wednesday ordered US weapons inspectors to leave the
country. Iraq imposed a ban on US nationals in the UN Special
Commission ( UNSCOM ) in charge of disarming Iraq and ordered them to
leave the country by November 5.
The move sparked a fresh crisis with the UN Security Council,
which warned Baghdad of "serious consequences" of its latest move.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:17 - ID#225283)

The question is will Neiderhoffer update the book he working title for next edition : How to be a speculator on the street and lose it all.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:18 - ID#194311)
Dollar Bill bent but not broke...yet
Dollar plummets ahead of Wall Street opening / European exchange rates [Oct 30]

LONDON, Oct 30 ( AFP ) - The dollar came a cropper in the first
half of the Thursday trading session on fears of a new Wall Street
plunge later in the day in the wake of new upheavals on Southeast
Asian markets.
The dollar was down in early afternoon to 1.7145 marks on the
London forex market against 1.7223 in the morning, 1.7280 in New
York on WEdnesday, and 1.7360 marks Wednesday evening.
The greenback was down to 120.08 yen against 120.33 in the
morning, 120.60 in New York Wednesday evening, and 120.45 yen
Wednesday evening in London. While the yen was up against the
dollar, it eased against the mark.
The Swiss franc was playing the role of a safe haven currency on
Wednesday, traders noted.

How about that Swiss franc, strong as ever. So how much gold did they sell, boys you've just been screwed by the cleverest players in the game.

nailz's boss
(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:20 - ID#39278)
not really

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:22 - ID#401460)
They are still buying!
panda: AG will have no other alternative but raise rates.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:25 - ID#32051)
I think it was Donald who posted an article yesterday by John Crudele which suggested the Fed's might be buying S&P futures. My question is what trader in their right mind sell the contract and bet against the Fed?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:25 - ID#401460)
Sorry couldn't resist
kiwi ( Dollar & Bill is bent but not broke...yet )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:30 - ID#31868)
Steady: I agree at this point. I don't care what happens to them. They are fueling a fire, and when it begins to rage and their finances go up in smoke will be the first ones to cry foul. Phooey.

They are all big girls and boys, they are falling into this mass greed and I gotta have what the other clown has mania, and stupidity. I would say ignorance, but, this is stupidity. Sheer, non- virginal stupidity.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:30 - ID#32051)
meant to say *would* sell.

Highrise: LOL ( : ) ) ) ) )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:33 - ID#30116)
nailz -- Gold stocks are like any other stock. If the underlying business is poor, so goes the stock. Gold stock holders hope for the underlying metal to react to the bad news, thus causing the shares to rise in value due to the rising valuations/profits ( giggle ) of the miners. Now when you come to situation like SWC....

The general idea was that if paper assets fell, the hard assets would rise. Well, those of us who thought that, ( me ) , were wrong. My mistake was in assuming a view that very few people even new about, let alone considered. Too many people believe that it is possible to hedge away all risk. It ain't so Virginia. Hedges cost money and assume that the other side will not default. Again, only a Neanderthal ( me ) , would consider the possibility of default in these modern times of prosperity. Yes, without the underlying gold moving UP, the gold stocks are indeed worthless as a hedge. At least with the metal, you have something physical...

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:34 - ID#433171)
This site is like reading the newspapers. Not good for successful investing. Guys like Puetz, Cheesehead, Big Trader etc. etc. are dangerous to one financial well being. All though I've been able to maintain some of my sanity.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:37 - ID#57232)
Panda: If we have that "last gasp market rally" into 1999-2000, there will be no reason to push gold prices down anymore. People will remember the uncertainty in the last few weeks, and put some of their money in gold/gold staocks. Either way its just a matter of time. Only problem is -- when? All depends on AG and the CB's.
The wild card will be that international crisis somewhere.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:40 - ID#386276)
Have a look at the long term chart of gold on the bottom or this page.
Is it at an ewave turning point?
Any e-waver's with comments?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:40 - ID#30116)
Highrise -- That would be the start of something 'new'. I think it's called a paradigm shift. No, I think if you let gold rise some and leave rates alone, the bond market can be used to curb the stock market more effectively for now. Eventually, the Fed will raise rates. Historically, the Fed always acts behind the curve. In other words, they're always a day late, but not a dollar short. :- )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:41 - ID#225283)
Kiwi your Bank article posts

The first article is pure propaganda...
China backs have beeeeeen having huge problems and eveents this week have made the situation much worse...Glad to see MOOdy's rating change to a negative.....the Chinese are playing a very dangerous game I would not be surprised to see a few bank holidays down the road a bit.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:42 - ID#225283)
Kiwi your Bank article posts

The first article is pure propaganda...
China banks have beeeeeen having huge problems and events this week have made the situation much worse...Glad to see MOOdy's rating change to a negative.....the Chinese are playing a very dangerous game I would not be surprised to see a few bank holidays down the road a bit.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:43 - ID#244354)
@know it all
Flushed down the toilet headed for the sewer.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:47 - ID#30116)
JTF -- We have those wild cards already in play. They are called the price of oil, Iraq, Russia, Asia ( pick a spot ) , China, etc. The weakness in the tech sector is due to fears about the Asian monetary problems. Well I got news for those folks, they don't buy our stuff, they make it for us. There's a big difference. How many Pentium II computers does the average Asian household have????

Speaking of computers, what is this crap about Wall Streets computers handling the 'crunch' flawlessly? I think they need to buy some more of those P II machines, especially Schwabee from reading the papers. And Fidelity isn't doing so hot either in that department... :- ) )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:49 - ID#256321)
Just took an enema for my bowls so I can blow out some more B.S.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:51 - ID#2082)
..........Loco Peso...........
This peso has been wild!! It gets sold off in the a.m. only to be positive in the p.m. Big highs/lows. Who is doing this? I have not been able to pay much attention. Is Soros moving silently from country to country stiring the pot all the way?? Is Buffet in on it? Any other Big Boys?? With a little teamwork I think they can get the job done. Donald do you have any news for us? If you have printed it sorry I missed it... turn up the heat and watch the pot boil over.....uhuh.....

what will gold do tomorrow...get your crystal balls out...oh my...

it will/may create another shorting opp. next week.....or it will oscillate around 316 before moving under the water line in Nov/Dec........300...down...down...down...

i can see clearly now the rain is gone
i can see ALL the obstacles in my way...
it's gonna be a bright, bright sunshiny day...

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:51 - ID#30116)
Rush Limbaugh talking about the, "Plunge protection team." Uh, Oh!

Question is was the 'team' activated? Free markets?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:54 - ID#401460)
What is happening?
Such Wisdom and Class
Error: 500--server or CGI error

Error description:

Error: 500--server or CGI error

What you should do:

If you feel this is a server problem and you wish to report it, please contact with the following information:

The error message: 500--server or CGI error
The URL you were trying to access ( my guess is
"/cgi-bin/" )
The browser you are using ( my guess is "Mozilla/3.0Gold ( Macintosh; U;
PPC ) " )
Your hostname ( my guess is )
The local time ( Thu Oct 30 10:51:02 1997 )
And any other information you think is relevant
You may access the main page at

If you are the server administrator, and this error was caused by a CGI script,
you can check /usr/logs/error-log.www to see any error messages the CGI
might have produced.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:54 - ID#30116)
ANOTHER -- It's spelled, "bowels".

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:56 - ID#194311)
Welcome aboard Rush
any port in a storm...any mouthpiece better than none, i think?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:56 - ID#215208)
Tried to post this early this morning.

nick @ aussie - Thanks for posting the charts on the asian markets. A picture is worth 1000 posts.

slick - "Fourth premise. Once the Japanese call in their loans from the U.S. by selling their huge portfolio of U.S securities, what do you all think will happen to our precious dollar and our ability to keep refinancing our escalating debt? " The answer to this one is easy. US investors will buy up all the US debt that Japan sells. As the panic spreads, and people pull out of equities and equity-based mutual funds, they will look for a safe place. This will primarily be US government debt ( and later, gold ) . So by allowing the US stock markets to drop quickly, the feds are assured of sufficient flow of funds to cover the US debt, without having to raise interest rates to do it. Neat trick, huh?

APH - Thanks. Keep us posted. Reliable info and trade access is a subject near and dear to all our hearts. How does your new system address the problem of trade access? Timely, reliable info isn't much use without it when in the middle of stark panic.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:58 - ID#224267)
@likely scenario
good morning on the west coast!
so, ...a net gain for gold of $8.50 this week so far, not too bad. will we see more losses on the market in the next days and weeks ( i say yes ) ? will we see more gains for gold ( i say yes ) ? any suggestions?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:58 - ID#7568)

The wild peso is riding the coattails of the wild Dow. When the Dow goes down, the liquidity faucets are opened. Rates go down, the reserve currency is devalued to grease the wheels or right the ship or hold the fort or any other stupid metaphor.

If gold was going to be bad it would have started to decline when the market started to rally. It did not.

300 is a good bowling score, but it ain't ever going to be the price of gold.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:59 - ID#255190)
I think it was my post that tubed Kitco. I just sent it in when I was disconnected. Must have been the bad language just toasted the text search daemon.

Proposed that we consider Kitco downs as positively corelated to good gold news. Need to count the number and duration for a given day. :- )

The jist of my earlier site bombing post was that the news media is now talking gold a bit, giving it air time. CNBC had a segment on "How To ..." whih I'm sure planted a seed in more than a few minds.

The dealer I buy from was plastered with new orders for gold for three or four days. Now typically ( he's told me that ) people rush to buy when the price is going up. Says this while shaking his head. This time people came streaming in as the price was low and stable. To me that says that this is the first wave on the Tsunami of demand for physical gold. His suppliers had no product to ship to him. So there are alot of outstanding orders and antsy people waiting for their fulfillment. Just the first wave, the pioneers so to speak.

Considering that there may be approx 10 Mln people out there in the US that want to move 5% of their liquid assests ( such as money market deposits - now standing at about $1 Tln ) into gold bullion physical purchases. Considering that on average of $5000 per person for this purpose we have a total of about $50 Bln looking for bullion. Atcurrent price of 320 per ounce that equals demand for over 150 Mln troy ounces of bullion. COMEX has a rapidly declining warehouse stock of 700,000 ounces. Interesting disparity, no?

A goldsmith recently visited the site saying that he routinely sells gold for 1200/oz. That is the price of jewerly gold. I know a goldsmith who was telling me this August that he's been buying gold with both fists and if he had any more money would use it all to buy gold. Since 80% of the market is drive by the jewerly group and considering the wide margin they have in their pricing structure I would suggest that once they have competition in the form of investor demand then we will see a bidding war between these two groups.

$50 Bln looks like competition to me. I believe that the COMEX draw down may have to do with jewerly concerns trying to get as much gold as they can at these prices before the top blows off.

They would still be making significant profit on thier jewelry at gold $900/oz without raising prices. But of course they will raise prices. To a point this will be productive for their sales and then counterproductive.

One last point - availability to people who walk into coin shops. If people can't get gold coins because the supply is exhausted and they turn to bars which get exhausted quickly what are they going to think and feel? If the spot price stays artificially low because of government interference, what are people going to think and feel? If there is no availability yet lower than believable prices then people are going to fear that they are being left behind. This is when you will see panic buying at any price on the street.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 12:59 - ID#30116)
Highrise -- One of two things. Either the server doesn't have the necessary bandwidth or, more likely, THERE'S A BAZILLION PEOPLE LURKING!!! ( Same problem, bandwidth. It's tough when half of Wall Street is watching this page. )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:00 - ID#401460)
Heck of a day huh?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:00 - ID#250121)
morning exercises
All Morning, was there some gem of truth so hard to swallow posted this morning before 11:29 that Bart had to edit it, or did we just get another lesson on the dangers of relying on the frailty of the net?

What golden words are now lost forever in the ther?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:04 - ID#262354)
@i know all
There is one way out. Buy beans and then take delivery, gas up and explode out into another dimension. Now what are you waiting for.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:04 - ID#30116)
TRIN seems to be saying no big decline, but 930 advancers and 1896 decliners, along with 246 million share down volume and 162 million share up volume argues otherwise. Distribution?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:05 - ID#194311)
Gold looking antsy...
big spike on

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:06 - ID#31868)
Allen: "The pioneers so to speak." You're killin me. I agree with you one hundred percent. I think that the number of people buying the metals is sky rocketing. The're killin me. Great line.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:07 - ID#194311)
Gold gone beserk
is this old data on or real time?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:08 - ID#242186)
Oh bitterest gall
Oh vile, vile perfidy
That we who have been on the receiving
end of the whip for 18 years
Watching the ignorant and the brainwashed
buy new nomes and boats and travel the
world ( things we can only read about )
should once again be teased and taunted
by this whore gold. Or do we let
ourselves be teased?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:08 - ID#386276)
Dell has just filled its gap and turned down.
Watch this market sell off from here.
The dow has just turned down from the top of its short term down-trend channel.
It should now run down to the bottom of its channel at approx 7300.
The channel can be see best on charts on 10 minutes.
This downdraft should be short and sharp, once again shaking the confidence of the bulls.
Being that we end down around 7300 by the end of the day, the rest of the world will trade down sharply in response.
Tommorrow being friday when no one will want to be long over the weekend.
If we open down hard tommorrow, we will break out to the downside of the bottom of this trend channel.
This will lead into a sharp drop down to test the previous bottom of 7000. If this happens, the bulls will have to spend the whole weekend studing their trading methodology.
When they come back monday they will not be avid buyers at all.
They will stay out of the markets to see what will happen next.
This vacuum of buyers will leave only the companies buying back their own shares and the feds to support it.
Under these conditions monday could well drop below 6000 pts, leaving everbody biting their nails.
Then gold will stir.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:08 - ID#57232)
panda: If I understand you we just wait for the crisis somewhere, and gold will go up. If this is what you are saying, I agree. Just watch out for the suction/downdraft if the world's markets collapse.
Good point about pentiums, if the demand for these goes down, that is us, not SE ASia. Industrial output may go down in SE Asia, but the opposite might also happen, as it often does when demand for certain goods go down. You just gradually increase your output and reduce prices to account for a graual drop in demand, until the market collapses -- just like what just happened with memory chips. Cheaper goods are coming to our shores, and we will have fewer customers that can afford our US made goods. The key question is -- can AG inflate the dollar fast enough to prevent world-wide deflation?
As George Soros said in a post from today -- lost I think - we are going to have more and more market turmoil in the near future. He made the point that the markets are too interconnected, I believe also. Good times to hunker down and wait for whatever it is to blow over.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:10 - ID#20135)
Could I get help on two fronts.
1. Would someone of knowledge comment on the comex volume today is it lower than normal ??

2. Would someone recommend some out of money calls for the xau ... please give symbol xaub? or whatever. Thanks in advance.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:10 - ID#401460)
Huge volume so far, "that is the story", what does that really mean? There must be a lot of buyers to match all of the sellers? How long can they keep buying? The experienced trader, from what I have heard, is selling.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:11 - ID#20135)
Could I get help on two fronts.
1. Would someone of knowledge comment on the comex volume today is it lower than normal ??

2. Would someone recommend some out of money calls for the xau ... please give symbol xaub? or whatever. Thanks in advance.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:13 - ID#36965)
Old man, you are indeed waxing poetic this morning. It looks like the worm is turning in favor of us goldbugs this morning. Nice move up in metal. Gold index up. DOW and the other paper markets down. All I need is Mexican Food for lunch to bring all this pleasure to a head.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:14 - ID#338126)
You can get All options at this CBOE site

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:17 - ID#31868)
According to Gold Mining Outlook India's 9 month buying of gold in 97 has exceeded total gold bought in 96. I guess all those folks that said India would slow down on gold were a tad wrong, what with the holidays and such now in India.

I am still having a hard time comprehending how people said, oh the price went down, the people of India will not buy more, we see gold purchases slowing down.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:18 - ID#57232)
@after the turning point
Aurator: your 1:00 - I enjoyed it -- are we talking about messages on the Ethernet -- or missing messages in the Aether ,and not the Ethernet? Is there an Aethernet too?
And how did you get the a and e to stay that close together? Did you get around the Pauli exclusion principle for alphanumeric characters in the Inter ( Ether or Aether ) net?
These days we all need a sense of humor -- especially so as the future becomes more clear to us!! Duty calls -- will log in later.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:20 - ID#30116)
I don't recall any recent previous dips breaking the 200 day M.A. for the dippies. By this, I mean that the past history has seen the 200 day line as inviolate. It's different this time. We used to bounce off of the 200 day M.A., not this time though. We're having a 'problem' here. Is it temporary or, something, 'more'.


(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:21 - ID#20135)
Ultra high volume is not Bullish for the market. IT IS ANOTHER SIGN OF A TOP. We are moving to a exhaustion move ( s ) by this stock market. Everyone is buying as fast as they can as much as they can and they can't get it near its high. A sure sign of the change to the new bear market. Good old Joe Granville put the line in the sand calling this a major bottom in the Dow and hating gold. Thanks again Joe. You are the best contary indicator there is. And as he spoke the gold rally began.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:24 - ID#401460)
Out of Cash for Stocks ?
Could it be that they have run out of money? Dow down 30
OIL up
Gold up 4.80
CRB up over a point
XAU up 4.10
Man on the street talking about having put in stops because not able to trade tuesday.

Do we have a gradual trading down slide that does not trigger market stops?

Here goes the spin again.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:25 - ID#386276)
A good chart to watch closely at the moment would be dow/gold.
To have both running on the same page would give an excellent oscillator and you would be able to read the level of fear with it.
I only wish that I had a live data channel that I could do this with.
Do you get a live feed on gold and if so could you post here a chart showing what is going on.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:25 - ID#373333)
@the father in heaven
All of you will be wrong. You cannot predict the future. Let us pray now and stop worshiping money. But you may get out your bibles and worship the Lord as your savior. Repent now. I go now to prepare a special place for you in heaven if you focus your eyes only on me. Then and only then you will be blessed.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:26 - ID#30116)
Highrise --

XAUCD 2 5/8 now March XAU 120 calls ( REAL TIME QUOTE )

XAUCB are March XAU 110 calls, I don't have a price on them

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:27 - ID#209349)
Swiss relief?
Looks like sanity has returned to stocks on the move, bullion on the rise...are the spin doctors on the way out? Comments? Check this...

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:28 - ID#386276)
THE LORD JESUS ( @the father in heaven )
Buy some insurance.
Gold calls/Dow/puts ( :o}}}}}

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:29 - ID#30116)
Highrise -- XAUCD is 2 3/8 NOT 2 5/8 sorry!

Nick -- I don't have a live feed for gold prices!!!!! ( They want toooo much$$$ )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:30 - ID#408152)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Hey, Muriel Siebert just said that there are no margin requirements when you trade currencies! That's not what Lind-Waldock tells me. Maybe it's time for me to switch brokers.

Crystal Ball
(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:30 - ID#287367)
Nothing new under the sun.
Despite the trappings of technology, the basic character of Man has not changed in 2000 years. The only real money is GOLD. All the rest is Pferd Dnger. Beware paper "assets" ! ! ! !

"The debt crisis that raged during this period cast Caesar as the man of the people against the corrupt Senate of Rome. Antony himself was convinced that upon total victory, Caesar would simply nullify all outstanding debt. His conviction in this matter was so strong, that Antony purchased the estate of Pompey assuming that the debt would be wiped out by Caesar and he would have the assets at little or no cost.

Caesar did not nullify all debts but did order state valuers thereby forcing the money- lenders, many of whom were senators, to accept the return of assets against which they had once lent money. He also applied all interest payments to principle thus indeed creating one of the most unique solutions to a debt crisis in history."

The Major
(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:31 - ID#372425)
@You've Nailed It Nailz
But we have to consider the " Swiss Timed Swiss Cheese " well publicized
announcement that " inadvertantly? "crippled Old Yeller.This is and will
continue to hang over the Gold price till sentiment is turned by the anti
Gold tribe.Yes,all sectors took a beating,but the XAU etc. would have
faired better during times of higher inflation and higher prices.IMHO.

I guess until those conditions are in place,Gold stocks should only be
considered as trading vehicles on the Gold price,since this year's books
for the miners are going to look pretty poor.That being said..we now have
to consider Golds stocks as THE HIGHEST RISK investment today,since the
market's decline doesn't appear to have much affect on the Gold price on
the upside,yet sinks the XAU in it's wake.Gold stocks are not for the
average investor in today's invironment.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:33 - ID#241149)
Wow, don't play liars' poker with Jesus...

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:33 - ID#391142)
@NeverWin is winning
closed out TVX puts for nice profit yesterday and moved to HM calls, Dec 12 1/2 for a buck, what a deal! I recall someone saying to go with gold in the ground, would BCMD be a good candidate?

Thanks for helping this generation Xer money

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:34 - ID#408152)
in sacramento
If you were REALLY Jesus, you'd have got six threes.

George Cole
(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:35 - ID#42953)
KIWI: Thanks for posting the Soros interview! Let's remember this man was largely responsible for the 1993 gold bull. With global financial instability escalating and a huge short position in place, he may just pile in again. And soon.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:35 - ID#338452)
Cheesehead ; Lurker //// : Professor ; Nick ; Tolerant1 ; Ted ; All

Mr. Golden Cheesehead:

You wrote in your response to my note :
"Governments may agree to do whatever they please, but they will never be able to destroy the VALUE of Gold because it cost x-amount of labor, sweat and investment to get it out of the ground! "

Exactly my point except that I view it from the other side. What happens if the price is driven so low ( USA sells its gold ) to make ALL mining of gold un-justifiable re costs? The mines close, therefore you have lost all of the "reasoning" for the "value" of Gold. There's no more "labor, sweat and investment to get it out of the ground!"


Lurker //////

You posted to my note concerning the CNBC graph:
"but it would explain why historically the small investor doesn't sell until the market is near its bottom. "

Please make that 1/2 of the small investors and I'll agree. It's certain that there is a float to which the normal investor is willing to see his monies dwindle but when that point is reached, it's decision time. That decision time is different for each person, as you've pointed out, so the redemptions will be gradual rather than full on. The last guy that bought will be well clear before the niddle guy sells and the only guy left will be the first guy in cause he may still be playing with the houses money. My guess is that if he was smart enough to get in low, he'll get out high .



Pontificate all you want ! LGB is just jealous because you can type better ! It was a nice change from the short obnoxious tones of late.



Your analysis was spot on with me. When the stocks hit the fan, it's exactly the scenario that I envision for Gold. I'm afraid though ( I wish otherwise I add ) that the stocks won't be allowed to hit the fan. I believe that the governments will try their concerted best to not allow the market to control the monetary well-being of countries anymore. They will act in concert to stop the runs on currency and the markets. It will be kept in specific bounds ( whatever those limits are ???? ) by any activity it can find. I only have to look back at the Hunts and their silver exploits to see that the powers to be will not give in easily. Your logic is sound. I agree. It just won't get that far to be used I'm afraid. p.s. ... I'd love for it to unfold as you say. My heart yearns, my head reins me in BUT I still don't want to be in any market when it starts to fall !



Thanks for the discussion. Agree to disagree. You noted early morning that the dollar is dead re over-printing. I agree but as with all things, it's only over-printed if you don't have a lot of them ! If you have a lot to lose, it's amazing how convenient agreement becomes.



"if we collide withe sun,things could get pretty damn HOT!! "

Ah Ted....You're not thinking right at all .... It'll only be hot if we collide in the daytime. Nighttime no problemo ! That makes the odds 50/50 eh !



I think it will take the decoupling of the Hong Kong dollar to get gold going in the fashion you want. That'll be the breaker.


(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:37 - ID#170235)
Miro and other communications experts: I have been having great difficulty accessing Kitco since Monday. Bill in Oregon suggested that this was because of the lurkers at Kitco. However, isn't it possible that the financial turmoil has overloaded all phone circuits? There have been reports of telephone problems in several financial services areas.

Is it possible that I can access my local Internet carrier, but then my local carrier can't get to Kitco? I have noticed several people are posting at times when I can't access Kitco. So at least some people can get to Kitco.

Furthermore, if the stock market decline worsens, the phone-line problems will likely worsen. These could lock people out of the markets even more than the circuit-breakers. Communications experts: What is your analysis of this situation?

more of the same at Kitco
(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:38 - ID#350108)
same crap, different day
Did everyone just see the spike up $106.50 on Dec gold?
This is just an indicator that gold will go to $10,000
and the Dow will drop to 4170 by tomorrow IMHO.

Also IMHO, no one will ever invest in the Dow again
and everyone in the world, including those that
don't have any money left when the Dow crashes,
will want to own gold to caress and
love and put next to their pillow by the end of
next week.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:38 - ID#373333)
@the father in heaven
Nick, you have made alot of mistakes in your life. I am all the insurance
you will ever need. When you lose all your money I will be there for you.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:40 - ID#286409)
Someone yesterday talked about "intervention" and the PERM, what is PERM? Very interested to learn more about what's going on with the billions being pumped in to keep this house of cards up.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:42 - ID#20135)
Not a problem panda. I just needed a start point. Thanks again.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:43 - ID#401237)
THE LORD JESUS ( @the father in heaven ) ID#373333:
No where in the Bible is the word secular used, everything has been created by Him and belongs to Him; therefore, that includes Gold. We only try to do His will and be good stewards of what he has given us. God Bless, in Christ.

I really like your ID# LORD. I am glad there are no 6s in it.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:44 - ID#320102)
It's a fake-out to get more milage out of the original Swiss announcement
This newest announcement came after gold had already gone up but they'll take credit anyway. Then they will make another announcement that they've changed their mind again and they will be selling, hoping to tank gold again.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:44 - ID#93177)
Isn't The Dow Jones Index Just Wonderfull?

Over the past few days the whole world's investment community has been glued watching the Dow! I am sure that the Dow Jones people, as well as the NYSE knew what they were doing by selecting those 30
industrial stocks as the premier market index.

I don't know if I am just witnessing this market manipulation but, it certainly looks that way to me. Let us look at Tuesday's market behavior.
If it was not for the 10:00am Dow rally of almost 400 points in less than 1/2hour I am sure we would have seen the crash Tuesday.

Today's market behavior is almost identical. The Nasdaq is slip sliding away, the advancers vs. decliners are extremely negative and other technical indicators are showing more negative divergences than positive. but the DOW 30 is leading the charge upwards everytime
that Dow is on the verge of sharply falling some group of guardian
angels fly over and start buying like crazy.

Now isn't this peculiar??????

Lan Man
(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:46 - ID#317183)
@To Steve Puetz - re Comm Problems
"You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet" - BTO

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:52 - ID#373333)
@the father in heaven
Highrise, please read John 3:16 in your bible. I will always be with you by your side forever and ever.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:55 - ID#30116)
Puetz -- Grim.

Shawn -- It's called the $PREM, or 'Premium'. It's the value of the nearby S&P 500 futures contract over cash. The nearby contract is the December contract. S&P cash index is the $SPX ( cash value )

$VIX CHART coming up! ( I hope! )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:56 - ID#320102)
Front: Maybe I should have said the *novice* small investors. They are usually the last ones to jump on the bandwagon and they'll ride it all the way to the bottom.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:57 - ID#431263)
HERRN GOLDFINGER , #244354, and MOre of the same! As I stated very clearly for you last evening, my most reliable stock indicators are all NEGATIVE and on SELL SIGNALS! If Dec. gold can take out $325 on a weekly close, I believe the BOTTOM is in for gold! The problems we are having in
the Asian banking system ( read China, HK and Japan ) are now spreading to BRAZIL and ARGENTINA! Mexico is next and then the US! Bonds are serving as a SHORT TERM HAVEN, but LONGER TERM as we are seeing in today's $4.30 rise in the price of gold, GOLD will be the haven of LAST RESORT as currency debacles topple one bank after another and lead to global chaos and confusion as to what REAL VALUE is and WHAT WILL TOPPLE NEXT! If you can't stand REALITY then COMMITT yourself to an institution where you can play house and garden oblivious to the REAL WORLD around you!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:58 - ID#30116)
@$VIX chart
Is this why some are so nervous?????

(Thu Oct 30 1997 13:59 - ID#31868)
Front: If I had $1 out of a pool of $1000 and then someone dumps $10,000 new dollars into the system, just creates it to add liquidity to the system because banking is a suckers game, with the customer being the sucker. How much is that original $1 worth. And they say we have no inflation.

The only way anyone has of knowing what a dollar might be worth is to value you it against real money - gold.

When the value of gold comes into line with reality it will easily sit around $2500.00 - loss of confidence in the dollar will take it much higher.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:05 - ID#30116)
492.5 million shares traded on the NYSE with two more hours to go. Looks distributive. Dow down 42. Techs losing ground. VIX headed up at 36.25

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:05 - ID#30116)
492.5 million shares traded on the NYSE with two more hours to go. Looks distributive. Dow down 42. Techs losing ground. VIX headed up at 36.25

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:09 - ID#224267)
@likely scenario
panda "Looks distributive"? what does that mean?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:15 - ID#320102)
If the Dow is down significantly around 2:20, look for a News Flash like the Intel buy back rumor last Tuesday or something else to turn the market around.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:15 - ID#318123)
It seems now much of the trading on the Dow is a posturing movement other than any thing else. One analyst congratulated all private investors of holding there ground during the recent ( crash ) market correction. Its a standing rule on CNBC not to express yourself by using the word "TANK" sorry your a guest. Brazil tanking -700 down at 9100 or 7% of the market, could the Brazilian debt be causing this selloff??

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:18 - ID#239235)
All I have to say is that panda's comments are extremely helpful, don't let up and keep making observations.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:18 - ID#30116)
prudent -- Wall Street gave a bargain sale. The shoppers came and bought. Who will they sell to?

A lot of specialists were stuck with shares. They have to unload them. If you bought a stock that was 50 and went to 40 ( you sell, specialist buys ) , then fell to 30 ( market 'bottoms', specialist ??? ) and bounced back to 40 ( specialist sells ) .... that stock to someone who thinks it's 'buy'. Problem is, the specialist knows it's a dead stock... and will fall soon. He knows this because he is the 'valve' through which supply and demand flows.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:21 - ID#224135)
@likely scenario
Thanks Panda
. i am a very small investor just into the gold market this last month, i am thinking i'll go out and buy 10 coins today, maiking my total investment 20 coins, i'm looking for seteady climb in gold over 5 to 6 months now. ?what do you think?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:22 - ID#408152)
in sacramento
10/30/97 -- 12:54 PM

BEIJING ( AP ) - To ensure its currency remains free from the speculative attacks that have wreaked havoc in neighboring Asian
countries, China has strengthened its restrictions on trading the yuan.

Rules announced by China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange spell out a ban on trading foreign exchange for any purpose other
than to finance trade, an official report said Thursday.

As it gradually opens its financial sector, China has been moving to ease tight controls on its currency. But the financial turmoil rocking
Hong Kong and other countries is likely to discourage further steps to lift restrictions on currency trading.

The rules reported by the state-run newspaper China Securities News warned banks not to approve transactions without proper

Companies allowed to trade foreign exchange must be approved by the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, it said.
Conversions of less than $50,000 for trade-related purposes would get priority consideration. Transactions involving larger sums must
conform with additional regulations not listed in the report.

Officials at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange declined to comment on the new rules.

The new rules were intended to tighten imperfect enforcement of current restrictions, said a trader on the Shanghai currency exchange,
where most of the foreign currency entering China is converted into yuan as required by the central bank.

Although a handful of firms have managed to flout the rules, the yuan has resisted the speculative attacks that forced a devaluation of the
Thai baht in July and that eventually rolled into Hong Kong, putting pressure on its currency's peg to the U.S. dollar.

The central bank has been enforcing narrow trading margins for the yuan, limiting price fluctuations and using its strong trading presence
to stabilize even slight fluctuations.

Pushed higher by China's huge trade surplus, the yuan actually has been gaining strength. On Wednesday, it hit a three-year high of
8.2830 yuan to the U.S. dollar.

The rules announced Thursday helped push the currency back down to 8.2840 by the end of the day.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:25 - ID#57232)
THE LORD JESUS ( @the father in heaven ) : As I recall the Bible also says somewhere that we should be prudent, and prepare for difficult times during times of good. Also it says, "GOD only helps those who help themselves". In other words you offer us guidance, but it is up to us to know what to do. I would think part of our responsbility in earth is to plan for those times of want, and educate others. Hopefully you will keep posting to remind us of our other duties, so that we will not get carried away. Much prefer talking to you than ANOTHER, or BIG TRADER. Couldn't you just give us a clue what is about to happen? ( Sorry about that -- couldn't help it -- at least I'm not just asking for myself ) .

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:26 - ID#30116)
FWIW -- It's your money, do with it as you please.... :- )

Another curious aspect is the rally in the bond market. The stock market weaves and bobs when it should be rallying. Go figure. It's a manic market. I'm still wondering if there will be a final speculative blow-off.. 6.167% on the long bond. Gold should be doing more here. The gold stocks are anticipating here. We shall see.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:28 - ID#320102)
Sorry, that's 2:20 CST, 3:20 ET.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:31 - ID#17155)
THE LORD JESUS ( @the father in heaven: What is your IP number? I tried then NOTHING! Then I tried and all I got was Janet Reno's site. All I found there was some goons wanting to know if I knew of anybody who sawed-off a shotgun or made some jokes about Clinton lately.

I need to talk to God! Does he use a T1 or T3 line ( T5!!! ) ? Would God's web site use Java or Microsoft's Active X? Inquiring minds want to know.

What a concept! Talk to GOD in cyberspace! Confess all your sins ( including cheating the IRS ) . Purchase redemtion for $19.95 ( VISA,MC,AMEX ) while supplies last! Confess your greatest sin of making gold the false god in times of trouble ( This one will cost you $29.95 ) .

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:33 - ID#433171)
Your caught up in the media hype. Stop reading the news.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:35 - ID#224135)
@watching closely
spot gold now dropping, as NYSE winds down for the day, watch out for tommorrows trading! positioning for today continues for selloffs tommorrow, i can only say that longer term gold will be the ONLY safe haven, and blessedly WILL perform its traditional role of real value!
buy now i shall

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:37 - ID#57232)
Petronius: Looks like you didn't get through. How long have you been on earth, anyway? Can you tell me where you get your health food? You're not related to Lazarus, are you?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:38 - ID#386276)
Here is the latest update on my swing chart.
Little bit of consolidation yesterday, but todays very negative adv/dec will push it downwards on a new leg.
No change in the trend.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:40 - ID#431263)
HERR LEANER! You're catching on, mein Freund! Currencies lead interest rates. Interest rates lead bonds. Bonds lead stocks. Uncertainty, fear, chaos, and lack of confidence of anything paper leads GOLD! When the world reaches this final stage GOLD WILL SKYROCKET!
Despite every attempt to CONTROL it! Remember, GOLD IS FREEDOM FROM HUMAN TYRANNY! If people really YEARN to be FREE as our democratic principles teach, then people everywhere will want ( NEED ) to own GOLD! The day it becomes illegal to own it is the day we have all become slaves of the New World Order!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:41 - ID#30116)
prudent -- I view gold coins as the ultimate disaster hedge. I see nothing wrong with buying some and putting them away as 'insurance'. Gold stocks and futures with associated options are speculative plays. Stocks ( gold ) can be an investment tool. Each of us make this decision on our own. We also learn on our own. ( That was the lawyer speaking. :- ) )

Gold is cheap now. I've talked to a few people who think $280 is the bottom and others who believe $200 - $250 will be the bottom. I don't know the answer, and those folks certainly don't. This is what is known as bottom fishing. It can be hazardous to your financial health if done to excess. Look at platinum. The fundamentals are there. The demand is there. I almost bought some platinum coins this January/February. Due to some stupid circumstances, I didn't. Platinum was $350/oz then. Live and learn.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:43 - ID#386276)
Next chart shows dow overlaid on gold.
The blue line shows a comparison between the values.
Nice to see the bottom is in and todays moves should show more improvement.
When they cross at midpoint, the masses will turn to goldbugs.
i.e. LGB will shorten to GB

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:45 - ID#386276)
Next chart shows the dow with a fibo-ex-m/a indicator.
Note the dow at resistance, and failing.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:47 - ID#386276)
Thursday October 30 1:51 PM EST US OPTIONS FOCUS/Index put volumes surge CHICAGO, Oct 30 ( Reuters ) - Thursday's sharp early decline in U.S. stocks convinced many investors to buy stock index put options for downside protection, suggesting to some professionals that the market's reversal will hold, traders said. ``There was big put buying this morning,'' said Jay Shartsis, head of options trading at R.F. Lafferty & Co. ``What's interesting is the put/call numbers today show more fear than on Monday's plunge.'' At the Chicago Board Options Exchange, the put/call ratio stood at 1.09 at 1200 CST/1800 GMT, indicating more than one put traded for each call. In the S&P 500 index ( .SPX ) , put volume led call volume by 72,617 contracts to 16,989. S&P 100 ( .OEX ) puts led calls 32,606 to 27,060 and in Dow index ( .DJX ) options, put volume outpaced call volume by 25,386 to 5,210.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:48 - ID#30116)
Nick -- I knew you would get that posting down pat!

Dow off 65 - 68 points

DELL off 4 1/4
INTC off 3 1/8

SOX off 14

And the bonds rallied!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:51 - ID#194311)
disease spreads
Brazil, Mexico looking sick will that affect US trade Greenie?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:52 - ID#320102)
Poster at Avid Chat says there's a rumor Swiss want to BUY gold. Wild day, rumors flying.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:52 - ID#373333)
@father in heaven
JTF, selfishness, greed, money, hate and lust is the door to darkness forever and ever. If you pray for wisdom your prayers will be answered. You have made very many mistakes in your life and if you repent you will be saved. Please read St. Matthew 20:26 and you need look no further. Bless you and the father will always be with you.

Vasco da Gama
(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:53 - ID#427201)
Brasil Fiasco
leaner say "Brazil tanking -700 down at 9100 or 7% of the market, could the Brazilian debt be causing this selloff??" You do not recall smeone say this summer many Brasilian banks selling gold calls against central bank deposits - and also selling gold calls naked. That mean no gold to back up call obligation if gold rise. Now gold rise , and no can honor obligation. Por tanto Brasilian market falling like big rocks from mountain Pao de Acucr no Rio de Janeiro.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:53 - ID#30116)
That VIX number must be getting to the option boys. Crank them premiums higher! :- ) )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:54 - ID#224267)
very good advice panda, i also view gold as "disaster" hedge, unlike "cheeze" i'd not expect disaster to strike NOW, however, manipulation by the gold sellers ( banks! not to mention these as the same players manipulating all the other factors in markets and currencies ) is clearly toward a coordinated objective, and yes I do believe that the long term objective is the demise of markets and currencies to the aim of purchasing the then devalued world capital, so as to offset the coming replacement of fiat currencies, leaving the international banks with all the trump "chips" and "cards"

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:54 - ID#224267)
very good advice panda, i also view gold as "disaster" hedge, unlike "cheeze" i'd not expect disaster to strike NOW, however, manipulation by the gold sellers ( banks! not to mention these as the same players manipulating all the other factors in markets and currencies ) is clearly toward a coordinated objective, and yes I do believe that the long term objective is the demise of markets and currencies to the aim of purchasing the then devalued world capital, so as to offset the coming devaluation of fiat currencies, leaving the international banks with all the trump "chips" and "cards"

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:55 - ID#30116)
Vasco da Gama -- I remember that story.

Be Back Later....

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:58 - ID#364147)
@ Back from latest Black-out
My ISP crapped out on me again this mornin so went Cranberry pickin + fossil hunting,both of which are very plentiful here...I see XAU is up 4.03 so I presume gold is up...Re-ISP: It's one thing to be too INCOMPETANT to run an ISP but what really galls me is that EVERY time they are down you can NOT reach the local ISP office by phone or the parent co. ( Hook-up ( HAR HAR ) Communucations ( symbol HU on TSE ) on their 800#...Local branch says leave your # and we'll call ya back but they have NEVER carried through on that promise---but then again this is the BS capital of N.A.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 14:58 - ID#57232)
Vasco da Gama: I thought there was a post about a South American bank that "sold" too much gold -- as much as it had in some trades of some kind. If you stick around, I think there may be some Brazian Bankers who may want to ask you some questions -- like where did all that Spanish gold go - know of any shipwrecks? Sure have alot of long-lived posters today!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:03 - ID#386276)
How come charts show the psychology of the masses.
I read the charts and understand the psychology.
But am constantly amazed as to to how accurately the masses do what the charts predict.
I would still like to see the dow at the bottom of the trend channel by close time.
This will put the crash team on high alert, also the dippies who have just bought. ( :o}}}}}

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:03 - ID#285233)
Grow up
ID #373333 - Why don't you grow up and change your name???????Pretty immature.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:04 - ID#57232)
THE LORD JESUS ( @the father in heaven ) : Thank you for answering my prayers. Hope you will help all of us, and not just me. There are many who need your help more than I -- like those in SE Asia. 200 million or so just in Indonesia.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:07 - ID#386276)
THE LORD JESUS ( @father in heaven )

I repented a week ago.

I then took out insurance -- -- -- -- spx puts/gold calls.

Many many will be repenting soon.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:09 - ID#285233)
start of the final episode
Mexico -243 ( -5.09% ) ; Brazil -845 ( -8.51% ) , DOW -92

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:12 - ID#7568)

This rates to be a long running show.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:15 - ID#57232)
@Work - charts with mass psychology indicators
Nick ( @Aussie ) :
What kind of market charts show mass psychology? I've never seen one!

I have noticed that at times news -- good or bad -- does not alway have the expected effect all the time, and the stocks that go down the least on one day dips, are generally the strongest.
And, of course the full moon dates seem to be days when the markets are especially responsive -- but the direction is unpredictable. To me, the psychological element is missing, and only inferred by the market pattern. The Elliot wave and the Fischer spiral stuff is based on mass psychology.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:17 - ID#334321)
Yup,I did mean BOO!! I ain't too bright.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:17 - ID#373333)
@the father in heaven
JTF, You have already lost faith and you need alot of spiritual nourishing. Your soul is imperil.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:21 - ID#57232)
Hepcat -- If you have chosen yet another handle as the almighty, why don't you come back to earth and help us with reality instead. Your posts are getting tiresome.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:21 - ID#232183)
Those CBs do not give up....must have sold a little gold at 2:25 pm. Let the Asians look at today's close ( currently down 95 ) .

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:22 - ID#31868)
How does China pay Boeing. Gold, paper, future draft choices, egg rolls, what?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:24 - ID#237143)
The bears on this site have had things their own way for quite some time. They have become arrogant, boastful, and overconfident. They are about to get the s..t kicked out of them. For the bible tells us that pride goeth before the fall.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:26 - ID#289186)
@in hell
It's the last trip down here for all of you. You'll love it.

Gusto Oro
(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:26 - ID#377235)
Wild Geese
You're right, Steady, Dow's down 98--what's up?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:28 - ID#224267)
Old Gold, i'd say that the pride has been with the stock market bulls, not the gold bears!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:28 - ID#402309)
Found this at another site....

....I wonder if he can distinguish between "smaller" and "small". I have lived in the Orient for 25 years and still subcribe to their daily newspapers. I know very well how the markets were manipulated over there and therefore I do not think that I am ignorant about Hong Kong.
It is a cruel joke that Swiss just announced that there are another list of 14,000 dormant WWII-era accounts today ( 10/29 ) in the sweeping attempt to give back the assets of Holocaust victims. However, that is only about $12.4 million. Do you believe it? Furthermore, Swiss officials have uncovered another 64,000 dormant accounts bearing Swiss names that contain about $690,000 in accounts less than about $70 each. The uncovered sum is about $54 million in the last 2 years. It is far less than some Jewish groups have asserted is missing. The bottom line is that the Swiss banks and government had been denying and hiding this from public for 50 years. All I can say is "dirty."
Do they really need to sell so much gold to raise $54 million for this purpose? A kindergarten kid knows that it is a lie. Unless they know that the true value of those accounts is in the, in this case..they were lying again. I doubt I will ever open an Swiss account. Only thiefs will.
I do not believe that they will be noble enough to return all of the money plus a reasonable interest and a public apology, even under international pressure. I have lost faith in their integrity. How do they distribute the funds? Of course, it will not be in Swiss Francs. There are so many Jews all over the world with many of them in the USA. A large portion of that money will be converted into dollars. Overall the impact of this currency flow is too small to affect the stock market.
The announcement by a group of Swiss experts to recommended that their central bank sell 14,000 tons of gold destroyed the world gold market within a day ( 10/24 ) . However, if you closely look at the XAU or POG or any senior gold chart, you will notice that the reversal had taken place in Thursday ( 10/23 ) afternoon. The news was leaked before the announcement. The timing was technically perfect to knock down gold. I do not believe it was coincidence. It was on purpose, period.
The purpose of this announcement was to support dollar because of US market was ready to tank. How did they support dollar? Take a look at the charts for the US dollar and price of gold. They have moved in a reverse direction from each other during the last ~12-24 months. This is what I mean when I suggest that the dollar was strengthened to support the market by their announcement. The Swiss manipulators were selling into the support on 10/24. They are the insiders who got out just in time.
They saved US market for just one day. But that is enough to save billions of dollars. I knew the US market was going to collapse immediately during the weekend because I smelled the rotten trick.
4 days after their announcement, the Swiss government still cannot provide any official position on how will they sell gold and how much of it. This kind of irresponsilbe behavior fits their market manipulators' image. From the Nazi-gold to the gold manipuation by the Swiss elite...I have decided not to buy any Swiss products or to visit that country again. This is just my personal
principle. I do not need anyone to tell me what I should do about this.

Please read the news from the World Gold Council urging Swiss government to make an official decision asap:

However, the gold market did not respond to the most favorable news of India widening the gold trading freedom for their citizens. Please read:

Indian gold

This is a big news for the world gold market. I haven't seen any indication of a positive view on this yet. You will find more news about the world gold market under the same WGC web page.
It is important to learn that the stock market is actually connected with currency, bond and commodity markets. Gold is a special commodity because of it is also a currency. One can manipulate any one of these factor to boost the stock market. Did you hear that bonds are the safe haven at this point? Yes, the pros want you to support the stocks because you just knocked down the interest rate of bonds to support the stocks, because they have run out of options and can no longer say "no inflation." This is how I see the intermarket correlations. We should put all of them together to evaluate the whole market. Furthermore, don't be surprised by the Swiss politicians again. Try to think "why" not "what" with regards to their announcements.


(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:28 - ID#30116)
@Crash Team?
The hits 100 points, triple digit decline, and the PREM shoots up 400+ points.... Crash protection team or coincidence? You know those triple digit down days are real bummers.......

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:29 - ID#30116)
@previous post
I meant to say, "The dow is down 100 points..."

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:31 - ID#30116)
@200 day M.A,.
Jeez! Everytime the Dow gets near the 200 day M.A. the $PREM spikes up. Hmmmmm...

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:32 - ID#31868)
The crash protection team is doomed. The more they intercede the worse the blow off will be.

Gusto Oro
(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:33 - ID#377235)
Wild Geese
Bears arrogant? But Old Gold--they persecuteth us on many threads until we were driven to the Kiticombs. Nay! It is the bulls who will soon drain to the dregs a worse day than Monday.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:35 - ID#232183)
George today's XAU movement a sucker rally given the downward momentum of the DJIA? I would appreciate your opinion. TYVM

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:36 - ID#237143)
Prudent: The stock bulls and gold bears are one and the same. Look at that great prognosticator Joseph Granville. If you love stocks at these levels and think bonds are a great buy at 6% yields, you have to hate gold. And visa versa.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:37 - ID#30116)
@S.E. Asia fallout continues
Hambrecht and Quist to re-evaluate tech stocks earnings. DOOOOOOOH!!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:39 - ID#30116)!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:41 - ID#253159)
I need some advise. I have about $250,000 to place a bet. Who should I bet on? Paper or gold.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:43 - ID#348397)
good bet
JETRO: Take the quarter mill. spend it on women and cars. Life is too short for this bs.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:44 - ID#253171)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:47 - ID#271159)

George Cole
(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:48 - ID#42953)
open interest
O'Hara: The XAU rally is false only if the gold rally is false. At these very depressed levels, the XAU will follow bullion much more closely than the Dow Jones.

Am anxious to see today's open interest figures. A big drop would be bearish as it would reflect short-covering. But a further rise would be very bullish. In a previous post I argued the gold bull will be on when prices can advance together with open interest on a sustained basis.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:49 - ID#235389)
@DFW Airport
Today's action in the DOW bodes ill for tomorrow. The big question is when will the protection team hand the floor specialists the
blank check?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:52 - ID#271354)
I am as dumb as they come and feed on doom and gloom. Please post the bad news so I can hope I'll be put out of my misery. Just end it, please.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:52 - ID#270352)
To All:
I was right. I was dead on.
Forecast last PM : closing today 308 plus change
Actual closing today 308 plus change ( 8.15 )
Good trading !

(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:57 - ID#30116)
200 day M.A. GONE! Taken out again....

As for the doom and gloom complaints... Look at the charts...

George cole
(Thu Oct 30 1997 15:59 - ID#433159)
The worst is over. Stocks are now in buy territory, with a slight bias to the downside. Gold will go down and test 285 before this bear is over. Sell all gold stocks and go 200% long S&P 500. We will be repositioned on the open Friday morning

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:00 - ID#30116)
Heavy volume, 688 million shares traded so far.

525 million down volume

129.4 million up volume.

Homer Simpson
(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:00 - ID#404108)
Hope that the open interest is high, that way George
can tell us the gold bear is over DOOOOHHH!!!

On Avid chat they said George's surprise for
November would be beer.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:03 - ID#7568)

My compliments to all who have successfully ignored those recently released from the asylum.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:03 - ID#30116)
Dow off 121.31 right now. Ouch! 7300 is next support level and tomorrow is Friday. That means the weekend is here. Oh no! Did I hear sabre rattling from the White House?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:04 - ID#269409)
@ Homestake Aquisition
Today's artcile on Homestake Aquisition. Appears to my simplistic mind that production costs will be around $306 per ounce total ( Aquisition + procduction over life of mine ) .

hursday October 30 8:04 AM EST

Company Press Release

Homestake Acquires Majority Interest in Troilus Gold Mine in Canada

SAN FRANCISCO-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Oct. 30, 1997--Homestake Mining Company ( NYSE:HM ) ( ``Homestake'' ) announced
today that Homestake Canada Inc. ( ``HCI'' ) , a wholly-owned subsidiary, has agreed to purchase a 51% interest in the Troilus
gold mine in Quebec from Inmet Mining Corporation for approximately $56 million in cash. Prime Resources Group Inc.
( AMEX:PRU ) , a 50.6%-owned subsidiary of HCI, will purchase the remaining 49% of the mine for approximately $54 million
in cash. As a result, Homestake's economic interest in the mine will be 76%. The transaction is scheduled to close on December
17, 1997.

The purchase of the mine will increase Homestake's proven and probable gold reserves by approximately 1.4 million ounces, a
7% increase over the 20.4 million ounces the Company reported at the end of 1996. The acquisition cost is $62 per ounce of
proven and probable gold reserves, based upon almost 1.8 million ounces of gold contained in 53 million tons of ore present at
the mine. In addition, the ore contains 128 million pounds of copper. The purchase price is very reasonable in that it also
includes a newly constructed processing facility which produces a high quality concentrate for sale to smelters, mining
equipment and rights to 18,500 acres of relatively unexplored land adjacent to the mine site with excellent exploration

HCI will be the operator of the open-pit mine, which was commissioned in January of this year. The mine is expected to
produce an average of 130,000 ounces of gold and 9.7 million pounds of copper annually over its planned 12-year life.
Average life-of-mine cash costs, net of copper by-product credits, are estimated to be $244 per ounce.

Commenting on the acquisition, Jack E. Thompson, President and Chief Executive Officer of Homestake, said ``The current
low gold price environment has created a number of attractive opportunities for a company such as ours with excellent
operating and technical skills and a strong financial condition. The acquisition of the Troilus gold mine allows Homestake to
add to its gold reserves and future production at a very attractive cost. Troilus is a new, well constructed facility with a long
remaining life. We expect to make a number of improvements in the current operation, which will only get better as the mine
matures. In addition, .4 million ounces of gold contained in mineralized material have been identified at the mine which we
would hope to convert to ore reserves. Exploration potential in the surrounding area is exciting.''

Homestake Mining Company is an international gold mining company with substantial operations and exploration in the United
States, Canada and Australia. The Company also has exploration programs in the Andes, French Guiana, Brazil and elsewhere
in Latin America, and development and/or evaluation projects in Chile, Russia and Bulgaria. Homestake has received numerous
industry environmental and safety awards for its responsible environmental, health and safety stewardships.

Certain statements contained in this press release that are not statements of historical facts are ``forward looking statements''
within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are based on beliefs of
management, as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to management. Forward looking statements
include those preceded by the words ``believe,'' ``estimate,'' ``expect,'' ``intend,'' ``will,'' and similar expressions, and include
estimates of future production, costs per ounce, dates of construction completion, costs of capital projects and commencement
of operations. Forward looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to
differ materially from expected results. Some important factors and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ
materially from expected results are discussed below. Those listed are not exclusive.

Estimates of future production and cash flows for particular properties and for the Company as a whole are derived from
annual mine plans that have been developed based on mining experience, reserve estimates, assumptions regarding ground
conditions and physical characteristics of ore ( such as hardness and metallurgical characteristics ) , and expected rates and costs
of production. Actual production may vary for a variety of reasons, such as the factors described above, ore mined varying
from estimates of grade and metallurgical and other characteristics, mining dilution, actions by labor, and government imposed
restrictions. Cash cost estimates are based on such things as past experience, reserve and production estimates, anticipated
mining conditions, estimated costs of materials, supplies and utilities, and estimated exchange rates. Noncash cost estimates are
based on total capital costs and reserve estimates, and changes based on actual amounts of unamortized capital and changes in
reserve estimates. Estimates of future capital costs are based on a variety of factors and include past operating experience,
estimated levels of future production, estimates by and contract terms with third party suppliers, expectations as to government
and legal requirements, feasibility reports by company personnel and outside consultants, and other factors. Estimated time for
completion of capital projects is based on such factors as the Company's experience in completing capital projects, and estimates
provided by and contract terms with contractors, engineers, suppliers and others involved in design and construction of
projects. Estimates reflect assumptions about factors beyond the Company's control, such as the time government agencies take
in processing applications, issuing permits and otherwise completing processes required under applicable laws and regulations.
Actual time to completion can vary significantly from estimates.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:05 - ID#244284)
Dow down 125. They snuck it up just a tad at the end...

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:05 - ID#269409)
@ Dang Blasphemers!!
What's with all the using the Lord's name in vain? Is it the Black Moon eve Puetz???

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:06 - ID#30116)
Dow off 125 points on 712 million shares. Do I hear concerns about oil prices?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:10 - ID#269409)
@ DA, Hepcat's day off
DA, Hard to ignore Hepcat and his clones though when he makes phony posts as George Cole. Must be liberty day at the Asylum. I make my own derisive posts re "Gloom & Doom" but I hope to pull them off with a LITTLE more class than what I've seen during scroll back here today.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:10 - ID#386276)
All charts show psychology --- buy/sell profit/loss greed/fear.
The swing chart I posted measures buying/selling therefore the psychology of the masses.
Here is the swing chart for OZ. It has not been updated for a week, and when updated will show a new leg down.
Notice how all the lines are moving together, everyone selling.
Except for the puts.
I also use a swing chart with both calls/puts showing and it produces a oscillating mirror picture.
Very good for pre-guessing the markets next move.

I would love to do one for gold, I think it would be very telling.
All I need is the end of day adv/dec/unc data for the XAU and the JOH gold indexes.
I think that it would show that there is no need to argue for the direction for gold, just as it showed where the dow was going.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:10 - ID#30116)
XAU and HUI closing ticks were plus ticks. Last four ticks were all plus ticks for both indexes. Such faith! Buying gold stocks at the close! The audacity! The fools! :- ) )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:11 - ID#348397)
The Little Investors are so Kind
Hearing Granville this am, it strikes me how kind-hearted the long term investors are to the pros, brokers and traders, who will be long out of the market as it tanks further.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:11 - ID#285233)
last min high volume
Dow -125/712 mil... Notice the heavy volume the last 5-10 min of trading

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:11 - ID#194311)
EMU weak link attacked...Greece
Greece intervenes massively to prop up drachma
ATHENS, Oct 30 ( AFP ) - The Bank of Greece intervened massively
on Thursday to prop up the drachma, under attack since the start of
the week due to the market crisis shaking the world's main bourses.
Financial sources said the central bank had intervened on
Thursday with 725 million ecus and 175 million dollars.
On Wednesday, it spent 410 million ecus and 20 million dollars,
while on Monday it parted with 520 million ecus to support the
hard-pressed drachma.
The market was closed on Tuesday for a national holiday.
On the Athens share market, the general index plummeted on
Thursday by 3.37 percent, following drops of 2.58 percent on Monday
and 2.87 percent on Wednesday.
The head of the association of small investors on the Athens
market, Dimitris Karagunis, blamed the sharp falls on "an attack by
foreign speculators on the Athens bourse".
Government spokesman Dimitris Reppas expressed optimism on
Thursday about the Athens market, since, as he said, "The crisis is
due to external factors and is temportary".
The government opted for a "strong drachma" policy at the start
of the 1990s in connecton with its anti-inflation battle, which
enabled it to cut inflation of around 20 percent a year at the start
of the decade to 5 percent a year now.
The government's goal is a 3 percent annual inflation rate by
the end of 1998 to enable Greece to join in economic and monetary
union ( EMU ) .

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:13 - ID#30116)
The only losers in the HUI index appear to be FCX and WMC. Everyone else is up. SWC picked up in volume today. Closed at 19 3/4.


George Cole
(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:14 - ID#42953)
XAU and Dow
XAU up 4.8% as Dow plunges 1.6%. Anybody who expects the XAU to tank along with the Dow may be left at the station when the train pulls out. If bullion is strong the XAU will be strong. It is as simple as that.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:16 - ID#289186)
@ in hell
I will burn all the paper to hell Friday. The world is mine and I will make everyone suffer. Gold will be down until I nuk the world. a huh ha ha ha ha

LBG, where have you been?
(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:17 - ID#320129)
Every day is my day off, remember?
I retired at age 32. Oh, BTW, I posted the
Homer Simpson comment, not the fake George S.
Cole comment. How many times do I have
to tell you? - look at the margins. From
the looks of things, there are about four
different people posting anathema today.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:19 - ID#194311)
Lasting gratification
as opposed to instant gratification.
How could so many stock analysts, economic gurus, financial wizards or whatever the F..K they call themselves have been so wrong?
There premises are fundamentally flawed...people trust a real asset versus a paper's liking trying to do calculus when you haven't learnt that 1+1=2.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:20 - ID#269409)
@ GoldBug Risk Question
I have a serious question for risk averse GoldBugs. There is this major inconsistency I've seen here over and over amongst the "bigger" players, as to their overall strategy.

On one hand, they attack Equities because of beliefs in a bubble ready to crash, etc. and those who want to ride out all storms will be in metals which will always be safe, maintain their value, etc.

On the other hand these same players keep advocating derivitives like S&P Puts and such, perhaps one of the rsikiest plays you could possibly make in ANY market no matter WHAT you believe the long term trend will be. My question, is it just me or is this grossly inconsistent?

( Please, I don't want to hear the "Buy physical first and the Puts are just a small part of your discretionary risk portfolio" crap. If that was the case, you'd have had to be advocating Calls on the Stock market for the past 10 years )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:22 - ID#269409)
@ Hepcat
Well Hepcat, keep in mind I also said "Hepcat clones". The style of many of the posts including the phony George Cole, did not seem like yours at all I must admit. Your posts generally have a more biting sarcastic tone ( and more intellectual bent )

George Cole
(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:24 - ID#42953)
bear markets
Remember everybody, bear markets are extinct. Elaine Gazarelli says so so. Joe Granville says so. Batten down the hatches, hunker down, and hold for the long pull.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:25 - ID#57232)
@Work -- mass psychology
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Thank you for your post on mass psychology, with OZ swing graph. I will look at it carefully.
I don't think you quite got my question. We have technical indicators that reflect ( underline reflect ) market psychology, but we don't have any that are direct indicators of mass psychology. One way to do this would be to overlay major news events, and what did they do to the market -- same direction as expected, no effect, or opposite direction as expected.
I know this does not readily translate into an indicator that we use routinely.
One example would be that most of the SE Asia crises did not affect the US markets, but when Hong Kong fell it did! Was this because US investors are now sensitized, when they weren't before? I don't know.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:28 - ID#269409)
@ Kiwi
Kiwi, Re your 16:19. And just what was it all the analysts were wrong about pray tell? Are they guilty of underestimating the markets enormous strength over the past 10 years by calling for 8% to 10% growth when we instead have seen a much more impressive rise? Maybe they're guilty of forecasting a 5500 DOW when it was 5000 and then seeing it go to 6000, 7000, and beyond? Yep, they never saw it coming did they? Morons.....

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:28 - ID#270352)
I see we share the same address. Let's meet for a COOL beer

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:28 - ID#337267)
All of you, each and everyone will have my mark. You will not buy, sell or work without a number. I will tax you and make you all my slave.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:30 - ID#348397)
clarification of risky
LGB: I don`t think anyone would consider OEX puts or SPX puts as safe haven investment. These are purely speculative high leverage plays with calculated fixed downside risk. They are completely WITHOUT risk if you keep this in mind. They are either for hedging or gambling. ( As opposed to outright short positions )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:32 - ID#338452)


Actually your analogy is quite accurate if the prices of the goods and services that your dollar buys remain at the same level as before. In simple terms, can you still buy as much? Yes, with devaluation of prices. With inflation, no, obviously. If the inputted amount causes inflation then everyone's in the same boat, except that those with the dollars won't notice the changes as much. With deflation, we tend to scrunch ( if that's a word! ) everyone to the bottom of the hole. That would of course negate to a greater degree the added volume of monies you referred to. Agree to disagree ( :- ) )


(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:34 - ID#257217)
@ Greek CB
Greece Fed CB announces today that in support of the Drachma, it intends to seel off it's entire supply of Gold reserves, currently estimated at approximatley 6 to 7 ounces. this dumping of 6 or 7 ounces of Gold is expected to cause a major downturn in Gold's price but the action was unavoidable in order to propr up Greece's currency prior to the release of the Euro in 1999.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:37 - ID#194311)
LGB...take a look at the world finances
I don't see any of the feel good fellars talking about this, all that would have necessary was some prudence 12 months ago to not let it get out of's the excesses that will strain the system to excess before this is all finished. I don't regard myself as a pessimist but I try not hide ugly facts either.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:39 - ID#224267)
...hard to keep up with all the pros and cons you guys spew forth!
I live in Seattle, Microsoft Territory and here's a bit of inside information you may be interested in...
i have been calling the locacl PM dealers, seems that according to the local shop and PM commodities dealers the worlds richest man "Bill Gates purchased gold bullion and slabs as the markets fell" having done so then "...all the Microsoft techies ( read shareholders ) followed suit and have been buying up all the maples, eagles, slabs and bullion they can get their hands on".
presently only the largest two PM dealers who have large inventories have any 1oz coins left, and inventories are declining rapidly

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:40 - ID#23732)
It's ROLLOVER time...the wind is starting to blow. Save the pretty ladies and children.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:41 - ID#348214)
Reuters News Flash. In response to the stunning announcement from the Greek CB Israel has responded that it to will to sell off its current CB holdings of gold ( 18 oz, for chai ) .

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:41 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 23.35

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:42 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .286

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:42 - ID#224267)
please note that neither Gates or the Microsoft techies bought "bonds or gold stocks" does tthis info tell you something?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:46 - ID#194311) gold
maybe you can find stability in your crazy mixed up world. You really have been on the paper chase way too long...who to believe anymore. Actually if you hang around we can study you as a test case of all the dipsters who will fleeced and told to keep buying paper at the same time. Yes I think you do serve a role on this group after all, you will be our sample of the deluded majority.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:46 - ID#26793)
Zorba, Moise: Can you tell us who the buyers are? This information is vital. I suspect it is Naru but have been unable to confirm.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:49 - ID#23732)
TARA 1981 the DJIA/Gold price ratio briefly touched 1. I believe the ratio exceeded 24 in August. The ROLLOVER has begun...look for a 20 DJIA/Gold ratio for confimation.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:50 - ID#57232)
LBG: I can shed some light on your option question. This is better addressed to the professionals who are more successful than I, but here is my synopsis: I have still 10% of my liquid assets in FSAGX ( Fidelity gold mutual fund for the non-initiated ) . I bought some XAU puts,and SPX puts, which have no risk at all, except that I could lose every penny I spent on them ( usually do, too ) .
What I have done, for little expense, is cushion my losses if the gold stocks crash, due to another bearish attack on gold. If the market does not crash, all I have done is lose the money I spent on the options. The real pros, such as Nick ( @Aussie ) , and the Oldman, and RJ can just trade the options or futures. I just hedge instead. Very conservative, and works as long as the market itself does not get tied up in knots, ( as it did in 1987, or on Tuesday ) . Victor Neiderhoffer was a pro too -- and look where those naked calls ( ? ) got him! To do this right you need an options trading software program -- Black-Scholes, delta, etc. for risk calculations. I'm not ready for that yet.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:53 - ID#386276)
I play puts/calls because I like the leveraging and understand them.
The masses who invest should never touch them, ever, unless they are under excellent guidance from an advisor and are using them as a hedge to lock in profits.
If you truly believed in long term investing you would have done the same.
But you are no different than the rest of us, you buy for the quick profits and sell for the dollars.
You do nothing different at all, except you dont leverage.
If one knows the risks and likes to gamble and understands options, there is no better way to go.
I like them because the profits on a major move like this is awesome.
Did you not buy insurance?

Ka ...........Ching.........

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:53 - ID#318321)
This interesting article came my way, thought I'd share it with ya'll.

Eric Margolis Oct 30 1997

Though I have a regular visitor to Bangkok for the last 25
years, each time I've visited in recent years, the city
looked completely different..

A frenzied construction boom was constantly changing the
city's skyline, confusing even an old visitor like myself.
Who was going to occupy all the new hotels, offices and
malls sprouting everywhere, I wondered ? When would it all

It stopped last week, with a bang heard around the world.
Thailand's long-brewing financial crisis exploded into a
massive melt-down for Asian stock and property markets,
igniting a world-wide panic that shook bourses from Hong
Kong to Buenos Aires on Monday, and sent sales of antacids

The cause of this big, pre-Halloween financial fright is
quite simple - seen with 20/20 hindsight. Yesterday, Fed
Chairman Alan Greenspan, carefully explained what happened.

Greenspan is probably the most powerful man of earth right
now, If he had stood up at US Senate hearing and said one
word - `Sell!' - he could have destroyed the world's
financial systems. Of course, he didn't.

During the 90's, US, European and Japanese investors poured,
nearly US $100 billion in funds into SE Asia's `Tiger
Markets:' Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia,
Korea and, lately, the Philippines. This money flood was
more than the rickety financial structures of these Asian
nations ( Hong Kong excepted ) could handle. Property and
stock values became absurdly inflated. Reckless lending
became common, which fuelled more dangerous speculation as
absurdly inflated assets were used to collateralize yet more
risky loans.

Meanwhile, Asian nations have been steadily losing their
competitive edge. Wages in their markets soared. In South
Korea, for example, industrial workers now make 30% more
than in Britain. Asian currencies, pegged to the US dollar,
rose steadily as American currency appreciated, reducing
exports. Japan, the motor of Asian prosperity, stalled into
long-term recession.

The footwear business offers a good insight into Asia's
trade problems. In the 1950's, low-cost Italy dominated this
business. Lower cost Spain took it away in the 60's. Then
Brazil grabbed the lion's share. Low-cost South Korea took
the business from Brazil. But soon Taiwan undercut South
Korea. Then Indonesia undercut Taiwan. .

Vietnam and the Philippines threatened Indonesia. Today,
they are being undercut by rock-bottom Chinese prices. In
fact, China has been relentlessly taking away business from
its worried Asian neighbors, who now find themselves stuck
between high-tech Japan and low-tech China.

So, the great wheel of life turned. All business runs in
cycles. Today's hot countries are tomorrow's duds, and visa-
versa. Proponents of the latest silly economic fad, `the new
paradigm,' claimed technology and globalization would erase
swings in the business cycle. Asia's structural down-turn
proves them wrong. Globalization is no panacea. Stock
markets always seem to need an occasional powerful purgative
- which we had this week.

With Japan in the doldrums, Europe and Canada paralyzed by
socialism, the US is single-handedly holding up the
financial world. This week's panic very much reminded me of
the famous Crimean War battle of the Alma.

Dotty British generals became lost in the fog. Ordinary
soldiers and non-coms took command, stormed the Alma
heights, and defeated the defending Russians. This led the
`Times' of London to famously describe British forces at the
Ala as `an army of lions, led by asses.'

This week, another army of lions, small American investors,
`little people' in Street talk, stood like the renowned Thin
Red Line at Balaclava, holding firm as the brass - in this
case big institutional and professional investors - panicked
and ran.

Whether the US market continues to hold remains to be seen.
But Asia is certainly entering a 2-3 year period of reduced
growth, deflation and financial shakeouts. This is good,
Giddy Asia badly needed a dose of smelling salts.

copyright eric margolis 1997


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(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:54 - ID#271342)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:55 - ID#433342)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:56 - ID#432372)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:57 - ID#225283)
DA/panda/Old man

DA-- I agree with your Bowling score post earlier. Any thoughts on Friday's opening, or my earlier predictions of stock intervention,
dollar taking a beating,
and the market intervention ( manipulation ) ,
bond rally, etc... all of which came true this week...what do you feel might happen for Friday/Weekend/Monday

Panda-- Nice chart work and posts but you forgot something regarding a China and Asia in general---the forces that drove their growth -foriegn investment and exports ( at a fair value and profit- have gone away. It was never a question of them buying our pentiums.The recent sudden shock and banking scare will spell F I N A C I A L
C R I S I S & S O C I A L
U P H E A V A L in China and all of Asia
Also these markets helped to push the NYSE up and they will help to bring it down.
See you at the Shenzhen stock exchange in the Guangdong Province...China Telecom anyone?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 16:59 - ID#225283)

Would love to hear your thoughts on China and all of Asia

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:00 - ID#348214)
Donald. The Mossad has orchestrated the Israeli gold sales in an attempt to prop up 30 yr US TBONDS. Sh....The whisper is that the buying emanates from Turks and Caicos islands, seeking to join Canada as a replacement province for Quebec.....Word is that with their 25 oz Au, they will be able to double Canada`s CB reserves.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:06 - ID#269409)
@ Front, Tolerant1, Gold & Inflati/ Relative ValueValueon myths
Gold a hedge against inflation/deflation, long term store of value and major economic shifts? No way! I'll use my own situation as an ( accurate ) example.

I purchased a home in 1980 for $90,000 ( very close to the median at the time ) . Gold price was around $600./ Oz. thus my house cost me 150 Ounces of Gold. today, the same house is worth approx. $240,000, or 760 ounces of Gold! The Gold dropped to ONE FIFTH it's former home purchasing power in this area.

Also in 1980, I purchased my wife a commuter car. A 1980 Honda Civic DX Hatchback. Price was $3,800 or 6.3 Ounces of Gold. Today a similar new Honda Civic DX costs approx. $14,000, or 44 Ounces of Gold! Gold's purchasing power in this case dropped to ONE SEVENTH what it was for the same car!

Now for fuel, 1000 gallons of unleaded reg. cost me $430 in 1980 or approx. 2/3 of ONE Ounce of Gold. Now it would take 4.66 Ounces of Gold to but the SAME gas at that very SAME station ( 2 blocks from me ) . In this case Gold's purchasing power dropped to ONE SEVENTH what it was once again!!

We could do similar analogies for McDonald Cheeseburgers, ( Or Organic vegetables for that matter! ) and in several other areas. In all the basics that matter, no "low risk" investment could ever have been worse than Gold these past years.

Bottom line is, Gold has been a HORRIBLE store of value in the past 2 decades since I made my home purcahse and a HORRIBLE hedge against inflation, not to mention a HORRIBLE investment for anyone foolish enough to have bought the stuff back then! ( When all the same Gloom and Doom analysts were spouting all the same nonsense we see here on Kitco each day )

Remember, back then the economy wasn't NEARLY as strong, the world was a MUCH scarier place in many ways, ( the cold war being not yet over, barely past energy crises, etc. ) . Goldbug analysts then were preaching stock market crash within a year and skyrocketing metals prices. Just as our pal Puetz is doing now, but perhaps with BETTER reason to at the time.

Food for thought boys, food for thought.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:11 - ID#7568)

The PPT is going to have some late night meetings tonight. Friday is no day to allow for a big downdraft. With the futures 200 under they better pull out all the stops. Its going to be very hard to convince the dipsters to have another go if they find that the greatest rally in stockmarket history wasn't enough to make them any money by the end of the week.

If tomorrow is another blowout day to the downside, look for the Fed to announce a preemptive rate cut. Since their mission is to get this baby down without a crash they will have to be very aggressive. This is definitely playing out ala 1987 its just that some of pieces are on different parts of the board. The key thing to recognize is that massive injections of liquidity will be pumped into the system. Perhaps the best play here will be the yield curve steepening one. The Fed can do what it wants to the short end but can do nothing at the long end. The folks heading for 'safe harbor' in the bond market are in for a nasty surprise.

If this train they call the stock market does continue off the tracks, the next move is dollar devaluation. This goldbug thing is starting to get fun. Its also going to get profitable.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:11 - ID#269409)
@ Kiwi Fruit
Kiwi. Posts like your 16:46 are the ones that make me laugh the hardest! See my previous post for why. Regardless of Hepcat's style ( or mine ) I'll stay in his "Deluded majority" camp ANY day if it means a home, some auots, financial security, a college trust fund for the kids, and YES EVEN some hefty amounts of cash for PHYSICAL mteal purchases now that Silver's day has come! Deluded majority? COUNT ME IN!!!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:13 - ID#401460)
Their Bank
Chase Bank 10 Billion exposure in Asia

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:16 - ID#269409)
@ Nick
Nick, as an Ignoramus on derivitaves, can I ask a couple things? One, isn't there a HUGE vig premium on options? SOmething like 25%?? How do you overcome that?

And More
(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:17 - ID#251207)
ugly sister gets trashed
All gold held in reserve in the ground will be auctioned tomorrow!!!!!!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:17 - ID#289349)
Since psychology seems to play such a major role in the market, here's my call for the psychology the will drive tommorrows market:

HK will react badly to todays DOW. HK down 10%+ tonight.
The DOW will in turn crash tommorrow. Trading will be stopped at least once with a total loss of between 300 and 600 points.

This drop in the DOW will in turn melt down Asia Friday night and Saturday.

Metals will start to move and will post significant gains Sunday night.

Monday will be a repeat of last monday but worse.

Silver will close Monday near or above 6.00 per oz.

Gold will be at 345.00+ per oz. by next Tuesday morning.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:19 - ID#31868)
LGB: Let's start with the story when gold was $35, you pencil in the year. ( history-wise only a tad difference ) Now let's say you purchased $90,000 dollars worth the last time that price was available. Roughly 2500ozs. Now let's say that we multiply that by $310.00 per ounce. $775,000.00

The way I figure it i'm living large, eating steaks and whatever else I want to do to keep pace with big bad Mr. Inflation, the Hatfields and McCoy's to boot.

Now, let's start talking

I just wanted to level the playing field to fit my defense of poor l'il old Mr. Gold.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:27 - ID#57232)
LGB: Glad you got a post from one of the pros on options. With regard to your gold post -- of course anything in 1980 would be worth more in gold than now! That was due to the panic bull market in gold -- same thing happened with silver -- remember the Hunt brothers? What you need to see the value of gold is the average over the last 100 years or so, ignoring the blip up in 1980 where it was driven up to the stratosphere by panic buying. I leave you to decide for yourself what gold is worth after 100 years of inflation -- certainly more than $316/oz. If you are posting this tongue in cheeck you are confusing the less experienced Kitco lurkers.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:28 - ID#288352)
And here is some humour of the season, dedicated to ( whom else )
the great TORTFEASOR


10. You're guaranteed to get at least a little something in the

9. If you get tired, you can wait ten minutes and go at it again.

8. The uglier you look, the easier it is to get some.

7. You don't have to compliment the person who gave you candy.

6. It's okay when the person you're with fantasizes you're
someone else, because you ARE someone else.

5. 40 years from now, you'll still enjoy candy.

4. If you don't get what you want, you can always go next door.

3. It doesn't matter if the kids hear you moaning and groaning.

2. Less guilt the next morning.

............... AND the #1 reason

1. You can do the whole neighborhood!!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:29 - ID#289349)

HK will react badly to todays drop in DOW. HK down 10+% tonight.

DOW will react badly to HK tommorrow. Trading will be stopped at least once. Total drop 300 - 600 points.

Asia will melt down tommorrow night in response to tommorrow drop in DOW.

Metals will start to move significantly Sunday night.

This coming Monday will be a repeat of last Monday but worse.

Silver will be at or above 6.00 per oz. by Monday night.

Gold will be at 340.00+ the following morning.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:29 - ID#194311)
maybe these chaps have been in stocks too.
London's Royal Opera admits financial crisis dire
LONDON ( Reuters ) - London's Royal Opera House, which stages
some of the world's most prestigious opera and ballet
performances, admitted Thursday that its financial position had
worsened since July when a last-minute loan saved it from
But its chief executive was told by the chairman of a
parliamentary committee that it should not get any more public
money until it ``sorted itself out.''
The organization charges high seat prices which deter many
arts lovers and receives an annual subsidy from the
government-funded Arts Council of over $23.4 million.
With its Covent Garden theater undergoing a redevelopment
which will not be complete until 1999, it has been forced to
stage performances at other venues.
But in written evidence to the committee, it admitted that
box office takings were well below those originally forecast.
``We came close to bankruptcy ( in July ) and only a
last-minute loan enabled us to continue trading. The position is
now worse,'' Allen told the committee.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:32 - ID#224267)
? does anyone know of a live feed for the world markets?
I would like to watch the minute by minute action on the asian markets over this evening?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:33 - ID#194311)
US Bull in China shop diplomacy
and who is this to call the kettle black...only 30 odd years ago human rights weren't such a big deal in good ole US either.

Jiang Slammed in U.S. Congress
Chinese President Jiang Zemin held a spirited debate today
with members of the U.S. Congress, who slammed the communist
state's human rights record while hailing its rapid economic
progress. At a breakfast meeting, Jiang rejected the criticism,
saying that ``never before has Chinese society been so
prosperous and open as today.'' Jiang heard similar criticism
from President Clinton yesterday at a summit that ended in trade
deals worth billions of dollars. In a deal timed to coincide
with the summit, Chinese officials signed a $3 billion order for
50 jets made by Boeing Co.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:35 - ID#269409)
@ Tolerant1
the $35 analogy baseline doesn't work for a number of reasons Tolerant. First of all you couldn't buy Gold then, it was illegal to own. Secondly that was a fixed phony price and had nothing to do with the free market price. Thirdly, I'm trying to look at "Real world" facts that affect my own personal financial situation and demonstrate that situation vs. arbitrary "theory", and lastly, the world ecomomy has changed drastically since the days of "$35" Gold, even assuming you could find any presently productive investors today who had purchased any at that level. ( Which is quite doubtful ) .

In the real world that most of us live in, Gold has been nothing short of a terrible disastor for the vast majority who have had the misfortune to purchased any in the past couple decades. Stocks on the other hand, have made many rich, and certainly have been of enormous benefit to virtually all who have put their money there. In many cases, that "paper" wealth has already been converted to real tangible wealth.

Gold has a future, I don't know when, I bought a little myself recently ( Numismatic as I've said ) , but when I see all the mis-information posted about Gold here, I really wonder about the validity of the long term mindset of GoldBugs. Not too rational in my view.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:39 - ID#57232)
@after the turning point
Kiwi: That post on the Royal Opera House was hilarious! One typo you could understand, but not two. Did you get this by searching for the phrase "trading positions" on the net?

Incidentally where on the net did you get those excellent posts last week on SE Asia -- especially the one about the Hong Kong drop draining Japan -- the MIT economist Dornbusch? His warnings always seem to come up just before or during a market crash.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:41 - ID#226349)
Can someone please direct me to a site where I may view the XAU index
as a daily chart and a weekly chart? Many thanks in advance.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:41 - ID#346140)
Thanks for the fix
Take notice of the new time slots : )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:43 - ID#224267)
does anyone know of a live feed on the world and asian markets via the internet? i would like to monitor them over the course of this evening!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:45 - ID#224267)
i dont see my posts? anyone know of a live feed on the asian markets via internet?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:48 - ID#390214)
Middle East(a Heartbeat From Disaster?)
Arafat's latest collapse has all sides

Updated: Oct 30 1997 12:02PM

JERUSALEM: Yasser Arafat may be the Middle
Easts consummate political survivor, but his failing
health may be a new pitfall for the regions troubled
peace process. TIME Jerusalem Bureau Chief Lisa
Beyer reports that Arafat collapsed, unconscious in
Ramallah, Wednesday, and was briefly hospitalized.
His aides are saying it was simply a product of
exhaustion, says Beyer. But its the second time in
recent weeks that he has fainted.

Beyer says diplomats who have recently seen the
Palestinian leader are concerned by his obvious
fragility: If he becomes incapacitated or dies, it
would be an unmitigated disaster, because theres
nothing even close to an heir apparent. The turmoil
that would result from his departure could completely
paralyze the peace process.

Despite prompting by Western diplomats, even now
Arafat remains extremely loathe to designate a
successor, says Beyer. Its a strategy which has
allowed him to be the uncontested leader of the
Palestinians. It has served him well, and may even
be said to have served the Palestinians well by
eliminating internal power struggles. But it wont
serve anybody well after his departure.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:50 - ID#194311)
JTF and anyone else who's interested
newsgroups for Reuters and AFP feeds firsthand.

I subscribe them right into my mail box...I'm not sure if they're public domain or not...but there's hundreds of others also.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:50 - ID#31868)
LGB: My point is best explained by your response in the first paragraph of your post. The US has changed drastically in a very short period of time.

What, about twenty five years or so and our country went from I believe a balanced budget in 1969, severed the tie to gold completely in seventy two, to today, we have a global economy based on lies, figment standard money, and the good old USA is the single greatest debtor in the history of mankind.

The real world, I live in it too.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:51 - ID#338126)
To George Cole or M. Puetz:

Why were the canadian golds down today?

Whjo was selling? Why weren't there buyers?

money monday moonday moonedy
(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:52 - ID#350108)
mooney d demoonie demoney demon
Here's one that soooo simple no one at the Kit
could hesistate to take me up on it.

Where will the DJIA close tomorrow? Above
or below today's close? If you are wrong,
you lose posting privileges for the weekend.

As an added incentive, where will gold close
tomorrow? Above or below today's close?
If you are wrong, you lose posting privileges
for the month of November.

Choose one or both bets, but you must at least
choose the Dow bet to participate.

This is sooo easy, let's all play.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:58 - ID#401460)
The Dow
For most of the day, the ratio of advances to declines was 4:1 with lets say 500,000,000 shares being traded, the Dow had a trading range of up 25 and down 25, the question is does this seem mathematically possible? Would not this mean that all that they had to do was support a few Dow stocks? BUT, for most of the day the S&P wasn't down much? There were never any major trading halts either, they ran the market much better today.
Numbers can be funny sometimes you know what I mean.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 17:59 - ID#194311)
posting rights
we don't even have to play because you don't even have any posting rights to play with...nahnahnah

Hmmm now that's a bit like when the real players come out and say all who want to play have to put gold on the table...ooops I only have paper promises and what do you they're not even good. Get a life you sad git.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:00 - ID#194311)
posting rights
we don't even have to play because you don't even have any posting rights to play with...nahnahnah

Hmmm now that's a bit like when the real players come out and say all who want to play have to put gold on the table...ooops I only have paper promises and what do you know they're not even good. Get a life you sad git.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:02 - ID#390214)
Brazil's samba(So far this week, the bank has spent between $7 billion and $10 billion to back a currency that some say is overvalued by as much as 30%)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:04 - ID#347457)
@Tolerant1 and LGB
Tolerant1, long term investment in gold from $35 would not prove to be that profitable over 27 years. LGB, I may be incorrect, but I think you could buy gold in 1970. That was the last time when gold was in $35 range.
$90,000 grooving to $950,000 in 27 years would require average return on investment of only 8% per year. While that may be viewed as a decent conservative average return ( yes all you baby boomers expecting 30% per year it does not work that way over 27 year!! ) it sure is not comparable to average returns in stock markets ( if I am not mistaken it's about 12% over that period of time )
12% return on $90,000 would give you $1.8 millions - double of investment in gold. I do believe in gold as a safety net and hedge in bad times, but not as the long term investment.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:05 - ID#401460)
Joe Granville
Joe Granville quote of the day "I feel like I have diarrhea of the mind"

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:05 - ID#26793)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:06 - ID#401460)
Joe Granville
Joe Granville quote of the day "I feel like I have diarrhea of the mind"

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:06 - ID#251213)
Is it possible to get posts at 1000?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:07 - ID#31868)
Front: If you said what I think you said, my answer is yes. If I misunderstood what you said, then I totally disagree with you.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:07 - ID#289349)
LBG - Not too rational? Tell me, the next time our government decides to increase the money supply, thus reducing the value of your paper currency, will they ask your opinion before doing it? Will you get to vote on it first? I don't think so. What this means is that all your paper currency and your stock investments can be rendered worthless without
you being able to do a thing about it. I don't invest in gold to make money. It's simply insurance. How much insurance do you need? That depends on how much risk you are willing to endure. I choose to invest in more financial insurance ( gold ) than the norm. So WHAT!!! OF course I would like to see Gold go sky high because that would mean I would get an unexpected return on my insurance investment. You seem to spend alot of time preaching how "bad" an investment Gold is. WHy not try and convince everyone here to drop their homeowners insurance? Odds are they'll never need it. They could get a much better return in the market. What is it that makes you feel you have to save us all from ourselves? We can all hear the same thing you are preaching by simply calling up any of 50,000 stockbrokers. GO AWAY!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:11 - ID#401460)
Where are these posts going?
Joe Granville quote of the day "I feel like I have diarrhea of the mind"

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:12 - ID#346140)
DJIA Fri 10/31 close: down guess: 7050
AU Spot Fri 10/31 close: down guess: 313.50
( warning to lurkers - I have yet to be even close on these things.
See you next month - can I have 1 freebie for month-end...: )
Good King John: what's your prediction?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:15 - ID#371265)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:15 - ID#390214)
Soros Fund Management Lost US$2 Billion in Monday's Market Drop

Billionaire investor George Soros' Soros Fund Management lost about $2 billion on Monday, as stock markets around the
world plunged. Soros' Quantum Fund, which accounts for almost half of the $20 billion under management, lost 8.97 percent
between Friday night and Monday night, according to published figures. That amounts to about $1 billion for the fund, which
invests in global stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies. The average diversified U.S. stock fund lost 6.44 percent on
Monday, according to Lipper Analytical Services Inc.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:17 - ID#37295)
prognosticator - your 17:41

Try the Microsoft Investor site at

Only problem is that in order for you to take full advantage of the site you need to be running Microsoft Internet Explorer ( 3.0x or 4.0 ) . It will run with Netscape but the charting options are limited. Not sure if you need to be running Windows 95 or NT also.

It has an excellent portfolio manager, by the way ( again if your running IE 3.02 or IE 4.0 ) .

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:19 - ID#401460)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:22 - ID#224267)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:25 - ID#390214)
Japan continued woes

Institute Lowers Credit Rating For 3
Midsize Life Insurers
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -The Japan Bond Research Institute has assigned
ratings below the triple-B creditworthiness threshold to three Japanese
midsize life insurers, the bond rating agency said Wednesday.

The three insurers are Toho Mutual Life Insurance Co., with a BB
rating; Daihyaku Mutual Life Insurance Co., rated BB; and Kyoei Life
Insurance Co., with a BB-plus grade. The BB-rating means the
company's solvency is not an immediate problem but could deteriorate
depending on economic changes. For long-term bonds, the rating means
a risky investment.

George Cole
(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:27 - ID#42953)
Just heard an interview with investment letter writer John Liscio who used to write for Barron's. He is a strong proponent of the deflation is around the corner thesis. Goods and services now under price pressure according to him include autos, toilet paper, restaurant meals, and prostitute's services. But he didn't talk about items going up in price such as Amtrak fares.

My take is that the government is fudging the inflation numbers somewhat, but there is little doubt that aggregate price pressures today are quite modest considering the length of this expansion. The perception that inflation is not the problem it used to be undoubtedly has been a key factor behind the gold bear -- CB manipulation is not the sole cause.

Disinflation is always bearish for gold as is the initial stage of a deflation. But a strong deflation accompanied by a severe economic contraction is very bullish for the yellow in time. The longer and more severe the deflation, the greater the chance of large scale banking failures and pressure on the monetary authorities for a massive reflation.
expands exponentially. And the yellow will start to discount these prospects well before they become reality.

If DA is correct about the prospect for a much easier monetary policy in the near future, the CBs will no longer be able to keep gold down. And they may not even want to if their purpose shifts from convincing people that inflation is dead to persuading them that deflation is not a major threat.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:31 - ID#390214)
Atonement day looms for wayward bankers
However the summer financial crisis concludes, at
least one sector faces years' more pain. Bloated
with bad debt, regional banks appear long-term
casualties of the binge preceding the bust.

Failed monetary policy, reckless lending and
unrealistic provisioning suggests a reckoning of
biblical proportions. Goldman Sachs recently
predicted a seven-year famine as banks pay for
their sins.

Atonement requires massive write-offs and the
dismantling of cosy cartels that made regional banks
some of the world's most profitable. International
Monetary Fund assistance remains contingent on
improved regulation and transparency.

This summer saw investors cash out. Currency
instability and rising interest rates made short selling
bank stocks a perfect trade.

An especially gloomy analysis came from Jardine
Fleming which in August predicted five years of
misery for Southeast Asian banks. Not a bad call.
Since July their market capitalisation has fallen 50
per cent.

Now the brokerage has changed its mind. With
share prices having plunged investors have
discounted almost every uncertainty facing the
sector. Soon could be the time to get back in, it

Even as major markets wobble dangerously and
regional currency volatility continues, we are being
told that bank stocks have bottomed. The
precedents do not look good. Japanese banks,
after all, remain market under-performers and
mired in bad debt six years after the bubble burst.
But what does the fall in regional Asian bank stocks
tell us?

Firstly, they were overvalued to start with. Once
that premium is stripped out together with currency
movements, share price declines should reflect
non-performing loans. Estimated at US$73 billion
across the region, Jardine Fleming says the market
has done just that.

Investors have apparently discounted 10 years' bad
lending decisions in a four-month stock market
correction. With cash flows still strong, banks could
pay no dividends and write off the entire amount
over the next two years. The market would richly
reward them, the brokerage says.

If all this seems fantastical - remember currencies
are still falling and bad debts remain on balance
sheets - it adds the caveat that a Latin American
style debt crisis could change matters.

The portents for banks biting the bullet do not look
good. Asian leaders have conspicuously failed to
address structural economic failings. Thailand has
yet to accept the IMF medicine on write-offs.
Indonesia faces a similar dilemma as it courts funds.

Political inertia in Japan means banks continue to
stumble along. With the Nikkei 225 around the
critical 16,000 level, fears of commercial bank
failures are again surfacing.

Southeast Asia does not have the economic clout to
support super low-interest rates, allowing banks to
slowly rebuild balance sheets, which could force an
early resolution. That said the full magnitude of the
bad debt problem may not yet have revealed itself.

No one really knows when the regional deflation
spiral will stop. Sorting out the glut of property will
be crucial. How much are condominiums on the
outskirts of Kuala Lumpur really worth?

Only when prices adjust, real demand is tested and
bankruptcies bite will it be clear just how much
Asian banks will have to put aside.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:34 - ID#201238)
Comex warehouse gold stocks DOWN 10 1/2 % . They fell 76,262 oz to 640,856 oz. Comex silver stocks soared 3,115 oz to 133,029,233.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:40 - ID#226349)
TPher and Donald: Thank you for the information. It is exactly what
I needed. The serious contributors on this site are indeed a good bunch
of people.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:40 - ID#401460)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:43 - ID#347457)
@Steve Puetz and comm problems

Steve, I am not very much into communication but here comes my uneducated opinion. Yes, I think that latest event in financial markets put a significant load on Internet. In some areas we are reaching the point of saturation on current Internet infrastructure and any spikes due to some events ( e.g., last time when images from Mars were available on Internet, or current interest in market, may knock out access to some sites or some routing paths through Internet. The way Internet works, you never know which way some parts of your "data packets" are routed and finally re-assembled on your server
I had similar problems accessing some sites ( e.g. DBC, Yahoo Financial, etc. Kitco was accessible for me but slow ) Mind that I have access to Internet not through provider but through my company direct node. If you go through dial up mode, problems are even more visible because you compete with regular phone traffic.

I know than many people not so much interested in financial market were frequently checking out the latest quotes so sure the traffic was more than usual.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:43 - ID#431263)
HERR LGB! Your argument is specifically right and generally wrong. Here's why. That $240,000 house of yours will one day soon be worth half that or less ( dollar devaluation ) while gold will be three, four, five, maybe ten times its current value denominated in dollars! Do the math. Obviously the reason you've come to the conclusion that gold is a poor store of value is that your time horizon is truncated to the last 17 years, a period unprecedented for equity inflation and commodity deflation. This period has now come to an end and I'll wager that after the next 17 year period the situation you point to now as being proof that gold is a poor store of value will be used then to prove what a good store of value gold is relative to anything else! We're talking cycles here and the disinflationary cycle is ending with a gap down deflationary wave to be followed by a new secular uptrend in inflation. Gold will ultimately be restored as the ultimate inflation/deflation/stagflation hedge that it is! You just need to take a longer time horizon!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:45 - ID#401460)
Try it Again
WOW Finally I found where they were going. I think there are to lines going at the same time with the new time spots.

Sorry for the multiple post

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:50 - ID#401460)
This is really tricky
There are two lines! It is not 10:00pm yet? Who knows what is going on. Post one time 6:00pm and it shows up on the 10:00pm line?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:51 - ID#31868)
MIRO: Given that this type of discussion is useless cause the rules have changed with each post. Since the rules changed over the last 27 or so years, that's okay too.

Let's say I bought $90,000 of gold ( $35 ) to start - roughly 2500 ounces. Now lets say that I decided to sell when it hit $800 that would change the amount to $2,000,000 - But then there are taxes and capitol gains and this whole thing really doesn't matter anyway. And I could have invested in real estate and found it was over a natural gas site and sold it for $40,000,000

Bottom line -gold holdings as a core to one's financial well being well, I don't think anybody in a normal state of mind would dispute that. I think the reasoning, and history prove it to be a prudent thing to do.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 18:57 - ID#31868)
Arder: I am going to go out on a limb here and say that you were joking about warehouse silver soaring 3 thousand ounces. Right.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:01 - ID#401460)
Techies Buying Gold
Allen ( USA ) : Yeh! yougot watch what you say. I mentioned that bent thingy and it went off.

Did you see the post about Bill Gates and his techies buying gold. That explains why my son asking about the Metal itself. This important news because if gates is buying so are many other wealthy people. I wonder if he keeps it in the cellar of his new house. Did you hear that the real estate taxes on the house equal is income.

We need The Limited to come out with a Gold Bra just lkie that Diamond one. We need some high profile press for Gold.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:06 - ID#194311)
holding gold
if it is so worthless why do the Central Banks do it?
Try starting up a bank without gold only with paper deeds, etc...just not going to happen.
Gold is not an investment vehicle but a store of value, right now some short-sighted banks thought they could get better use out of there gold by selling it and becoming more "investment" oriented...these will be the ones to go under.
It may be a barbaric relic but to deny it is like denying our ancestors were apes and that we have animal instincts for survival, it's heavy and burdensome and conservative but when the guns stop blazing be thankful if you have any in your back pocket.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:07 - ID#26793)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:16 - ID#37295)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:17 - ID#31868)
Miro: I apologize for the sad excuse for a post. It's just not my day, I knew before I even looked at your post I was gonna take one across the knuckles.

In fact I apologize to one and all.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:18 - ID#347457)
Asia continues downslide
Japan down 253 points. Only 112 points to go and it will break through 16,000 on the way down. Does not look good in Asia, bloodshed continues.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:18 - ID#37295)


(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:19 - ID#194311)
is this a job for...
International many fires can they fight at once.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:19 - ID#348286)
@COMEX Gold stocks down
Arden: Is this as of Wednesday??? 10.5 % down this is GREAT NEWS!!! :- ) )

Is that King John?
(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:20 - ID#425156)
or King of the john?
The question is really quite difficult, especially when
posting privileges are on the line. My guess is that
most of the regulars and irregulars on this site will
wait until HK opens ( Australia and Japan are down but
not significantly ) before placing their bets, and
then say how obvious it was. For all the headhanging
on this site about the Dow, I would be very surprised
if it was down significantly tomorrow, but I do think
it will finish somewhat down. For all the chest
pounding on gold, I would again be surprised if it
finished significantly up, but this is actually a
much more difficult call than the Dow in my opinion.
This is why I made it a one month loss of posting
privilege. I simply do not want to hazard a guess,
because I don't want to lose the ability to post
next month.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:20 - ID#401460)
Mobility in time of Crisis
A Barbaric Relic
Just watch what happens when a Barbarian gets enough gold that he can go marching across the World.

Just ask any refugee and they will tell you it is easier to carry $250K of Gold than its equivalent $250K home.

By the way I just realized that is proof of how undervalued Gold is right now. It has to go up in value so that $250K will not weigh to much for us to carry.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:22 - ID#401460)
Other Line
Have you checked out the other line @ 1800.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:23 - ID#401460)
I am trying to post on the 1800 line

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:25 - ID#251147)
Hello Mr. Cole:

I think I've reasoned out what will proceed a rise in the canadian gold's. Currently, the markets are
marking down all assets except Gov't bonds and gold. This is true world wide. I've also noticed
that despite gold's rise today, my canadian gold shares were down today along with the canadian

Now, if the canadian dollar started to rise v. the US dollar, where would the money inflowing to
canada be going? Remember, everyone is getting out of all assets except gold and gov't bonds.

Would a non canadian purchase canadian bonds and not his own? Would a non canadian be buying
canadian dollars to speculate? Ans.; NO!! Safety is paramount in these markets. The man making
these trades is doing it for another reason. Any guesses?

My ans. is that the funds would be flowing into Canada to buy canadian gold shares. I also suspect
that the amount of rise in the canadian v. the dollar will determine/indicate the amount of funds
entering Canada to purchase canadian gold shares. One interesting fact if the above is true is that a
positive move in the canadian dollar will give the observer of the exchange rate movement a few
minuets head start in buying any gold shares before the fact is reflected and recognized by other
market participants.

What do you think?


(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:27 - ID#347457)
tolerant1, no need to apologize. This is a forum where we should say what we think and feel is important to say ( despite a lot of grief some paper bulls try to give us ) . Lately most of us feel that "poor ol' gold" need a lot of defense.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:28 - ID#26793)
Nomercy: In the U.S. each state "regulates" life insurers. In Connecticut it is done with people borrowed from the industry for a two year period who then return to the companies they just supervised! Bad system. I hear that South Dakota has a staff of three. I am afraid that there are lots of problems out there waiting for discovery at exactly the wrong time. Your post about Japan brought that to mind.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:30 - ID#262398)
Buying opportunity or last chance out? Find all the answers: Merrill Lynch Vice Chairman John L. Steffens will
host an on-line seminar this evening to discuss recent market volatility. Mr.
Steffens will answer questions from seminar participants and share the market
perspectives and commentary of Merrill Lynch's award winning Global Research
and Strategy Group.
"In times of market volatility, direct personal contact with a partner who
knows your financial plan is critical," said Mr. Steffens. He added, "We are
committed to providing our clients with flexible access to their Financial
Consultants and timely information on the markets so they may review their
portfolios and make the investment decisions that are best for them -- which
may be to leave their investments just as they are."
The Merrill Lynch OnLine Seminar, which will begin at 8:00 p.m.
( Eastern Time ) , is open to all World Wide Web users through any Internet
service provider. To participate in the seminar, point your web browser to and follow the simple instructions.
Participants should allow approximately 15 minutes before the seminar begins
to ensure timely access.

I wonder if he will recomend that investors sell?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:35 - ID#215208)
Has this been posted?
The latest from USA Gold. I like these guys! Very comforting reading. Highly recommended for all. "Investors are buying gold!"


(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:35 - ID#386276)
I think that charts do read psychology directly.
You just have to look very carefully and at lots of them.

There is one interesting indicator that no one has even mentioned so far, that leads me to believe that this is the real thing happening.
It probably fits into the random walk theory.
During the last bull run that has lasted for the last 10 years, shares, markets and indices, globaly have wandered, meandered and roamed in all directions.
Late last year I noticed that they were drawing into a form of unity, they seemed to start to walk together, even though they were totally independent from each other.
They were aligning themselves for what is now happening.

Now most all charts or indices are moving lockstep with each other.
This is a highly unusual occurance and can be read for many interpretations.
To me it meant that they were coming together, to act together.
And voila, here they are all doing the same thing.

For the last six months, I have been overlaying all the European indices over each, other watching this drawing together. Now they are all moving daily in lockstep.
I looked to this for the clues as to when the markets would turn, and they provided this knowledge, prior to the incident.
They told me prior to the move, that soon the masses/markets, globally,would be moving in unison.

Now with ten years of random walking having gone on relentlessly, and the markets all at excesses, all I had to do was to watch the lockstep movements daily and to look for a failure signal.
I knew that this was going to be a monumental failure because of the breakdown of random walks, and the drawing together of the global masses of investors.
It had to be a failure or go to a new highs.
The recent failure, followed by the rest of the world all doing the same thing together, confirms that a secular top has been reached.

This style of analysing is very good for sectors as well.
Have a look at 100 charts of high tech co's, the majority of them are moving in lockstep.
Doing the same thing together, all at once.
For the last ten years they would all have been exhibiting the random walk method.

Now look at 100 gold stock charts.
What are they doing, random walk or lockstep?
If they are all in lockstep, and at a extreme end of range, expect a major move.

Here I am predicting that the masses will do something prior to all of them even beginning their move.
I am pre-reading mass psychology

For this I used charts and indicators.

If global markets were still doing the random walk then this would not be the final top.
Now the charts that I read had showed me of this before the event.

Therefore this correction was preordained.
It was written into the charts prior to the event and each day the data adds to the direction.

The closer the markets came together, the closer we were at the point of turning.
Therefore, I suggest, that what is happening now would happen reguardless of banks, earnings, problems of any description.
The masses were about to do what they are now doing, regardless of fundamentals.

An aspect of humanity that many forget or ignore, is that we always search for a reason to the problem, trying to label it, justify it.
This event was going to happen anyway, so we would of blamed a war, earthquake, aliens, El Nino or whatever as the cause of the crash.

Blame can only be made in hindsight and does not create the action.
The failure of the banks was already built into the system, has been there for years.
The banks failings have nothing to do with the crash, they are a product of the crash.

As to your last question regarding: "that most of the SE Asia crises did not affect the US markets, but when Hong Kong fell it did!"

I think that you have to step back and not try to pinpoint the cause of the problem.
It is more the domino effect, one weak link stretches and breaks. That causes the next weak link to give way, and so on. The reason that the US is one of the last link to go, points to the fact that it is probably one of the strongest links. Although I feel that England shows a stonger position on its chart.

I feel that charts read mass psychology extremely well.
What is hard to do is to learn to read charts extremely well.

The earlier comment that I made to Panda.
Alludes to my amazement that one can forcast what is going to happen by reading the charts.

eg. I saw when the dow turned down after bouncing off it's resistance channel, that it would run down steeply towards the bottom of the channel, which is support, approx 7300.

Now what I find amazing is that I can predict the dows movements six hours in advance,
Using charts to forcast what the masses are going to do, prior to the masses moving.
The charts that I read today, for some unknown reason already hold all the known knowledge, of all the players and can be used to forcast the future.

Trends are very important within charts.
When one is broken, this does not say that you were wrong in predicting the charts direction.
But tells you that the direction has changed because the mass psychology has changed, and if you are prudent you will act accordingly.

I will not be exiting my positions till the trend has changed and has been confirmed.
The swing chart will provide me with the information I need, prior to the mass market realising that it has changed.

I see my previous predictions, still within the formation that is necessary, to provide them with the ability to continue the current trend.
Until the charts show a change of direction, the masses must continue in this direction.
They will tell me through the charts when they will turn.

Hope this explains my take a little bit more.
Sorry for the long rant, but I'm tired and trying to put thoughts to paper is not always easy.
As always IMHO

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:38 - ID#37295)


Question. For those whose posts are ending up on the 10:00 line, what time zone are you posting from, and more importantly, what is your local time when you post? I'm posting from the Pacific Time zone ( Greenwich Mean Time - 8 hours ) and my posts are ending up on the 18:00 line. It's currently 4:28 P.M. October 30, 1997 as of this posting.

Playing a hunch that the posting problems may be caused by interactions between the source code for this page or the Add A Comment page and the local time of the poster.

Lurker oo7
(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:38 - ID#310198)
@ S.A.

October 30, 1997

Brazil's Financial Jitters
Spread to U.S. Bank Stocks


Financial jitters sank Brazilian stocks and the country's currency again on
Thursday, and the selling spread to U.S. bank stocks as well.

At the root of the anxiety are reports which continue to circulate that a
handful of Brazilian banks are experiencing liquidity problems and fund
failures as a result of the recent financial turmoil, analysts said. The central
bank and the banks themselves have denied any serious problems.

The Sao Paulo Stock Exchange's Bovespa
Index lost 966, or 9.8%, to 8854.
Meanwhile, the Rio de Janeiro Stock
Exchange Index gave up 2782, or 7.5%, to
finish at 34308. Thursday's decline brings the
cumulative fall on the Bovespa Index over the last six trading sessions to

Brazil's currency, the real, closed at 1.1060 to the dollar, compared with
Wednesday's closing level of 1.1030 reals, on a day with four Central
Bank interventions.

In a sign of spreading anxiety over Brazil's volatility, U.S. banks stocks
with significant cross-border exposure to Brazil retreated Thursday on the
New York Stock Exchange.

Shares of Citicorp fell $4.4375, or 3.4% to $124.9375. Chase Manhattan
Corp. shares fell $4.50, or 3.7%, to $115.75, BankAmerica Corp.
slipped $3.3125, or 4.5%, to $69.75 and Bankers Trust New York
Corp. dropped $3.8125, or 3.1%, to $118.375.

Volatility in Latin America has the potential to cause trading and credit
losses for U.S. banks with the largest exposure to the region, Michael
Mayo, an analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston Corp., said.

However, the banks should also benefit from the turmoil in the region as
investors flock to the "stable foreign bank alternative," Mr. Mayo said. The
volatility is not enough to derail the investment theme in that region, he
added, and could even result in margin expansion.

Citicorp's total cross-border exposure to Brazil was $5.3 billion at the end
of 1996, according to analyst Raphael Soifer of Brown Brothers Harriman
& Co. The analyst said that Chase's cross-border exposure to the region
was about $3.1 billion, BankAmerica's exposure was $1.8 billion, and
Bankers Trust's exposure was $1.3 billion.

Meanwhile, the credit ratings for Brazil and its banking sector properly
reflect the investment risks associated with the country and its financial
institutions, analysts at Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's
Ratings Group said Thursday.

Brazilian shares trading as American depositary receipts fell in New York
as well, dragging other Latin American ADRs down with them.

Return to top of page
Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:40 - ID#255190)
LGB - Here's my take on the question of gold investment. In the *long* term NO gold is not an investment to make profit on since there is no long term generation of product or services to add to its value.

In relation to paper, ie holding cash, it is a better *long* term investment because of dilution of currencies ( inflation ) . But there are not many who put money in their mattress for 30 - 40 years.

I also believe it MAY be a poor *short* term investment because, as we've seen, it has the eye of political enterprises which would like to massage its "value" to support their purposes.

I beleive gold is a good INVESTMENT at some times in the MID term such as now. This was also true in the period 1971 through 1982-3. During this time frame severe political and monetary convulsions conspired to revalue our currencies DOWNward in realtion to gold. Also the speculative frenzy added to this gold bubble. Here is where I see the opportunity to actually make a profit rather than to simply store wealth.

As you know there are larger periods in which one areana of investment is prefered and tends to get over invested in. Usually ends in a 'bear' in that areana: real estate, equities, bonds, commondities. The opprtunities lie in recognizing the beginnings of the 'new' market to be favored and riding that wave up as long as you can then getting out prior to the correction. You have done that in the equities. I believe we are at a turning point that some here have dubbed an "assett inversion".

So it seems that for the time being that smart forethoughtful people such as you and I will find that PMs will move us up the ladder a bit as well as protect the real value of our assetts. I don't know how long that will last but feel that sometime in the future it would be good to divest gold/silver in favor of the next 'new' thing.

BTW where gold has dropped about 50% from the 1980 average price of $650/oz to the present 320 region Equities have exploded by 800% to the upside. This "inversion" is disproprotionate in favor of gold, IMO. Why? Because the amount of value drained from gold did not equal the amount pumped into equities. Hence my next point - when equities deflate there will be a tremendous amount of money searching of alternative investments. If a moderate fraction of that is channelled into gold we are going to see one hell of an up side for the yellow. If that upward curve attracts alot of attention then we will have another 1979 - 81 situation and another good opportunity to make even more gains from those distortions. At some point it will be time to bail out after that and find the next opportinity, eh?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:41 - ID#26793)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:44 - ID#347457)
TPher, a time stamp on posts have nothing to do with where are you located. It's attached by Bart's server ( Kitco ) located on East Coast Time Zone.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:46 - ID#215208)
Great charts!
Nick@Aussie - Awesome!! You really can determine major trend changes 6-hours before they start. Awesome!! You should have given up fishing earlier. Don't forget to keep posting to your friends!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:46 - ID#26793)
Kiwi: The State of New Jersey is in the stock market, using leverage, for state retirees. The 57 billion fund lost 2 billion on Monday.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:49 - ID#401460)
I ran into this guy out over St.Louis. I am in the 19:46pm time zone when I post my post ends up on the 11:00 pm ???
Date: Thu Oct 30 1997 19:38
TPher ( ) ID#37295:


Question. For those whose posts are ending up on the 10:00 line, what
time zone are you posting from, and more importantly, what is your local
time when you post? I'm posting from the Pacific Time zone ( Greenwich
Mean Time - 8 hours ) and my posts are ending up on the 18:00 line. It's
currently 4:28 P.M. October 30, 1997 as of this posting.

Playing a hunch that the posting problems may be caused by interactions
between the source code for this page or the Add A Comment page and
the local time of the poster.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:51 - ID#376309)
This week's action in Gold is quite bullish. I wanted to post Earlier but I could not get to the "Add a comment" section in time. I did notice today's drop in Gold at the warehouse. This is a very low level. TO hell with all the silver stock talk Gold stocks are at a much lower level. We need central bank sales to meet the demand! I believe there is a chance we could see 345 within two weeks as we may have formed the biggest bear trap I have ever seen! ENJOY

(Thu Oct 30 1997 19:57 - ID#319171)
I am scratching my head after seeing the posts here and with China coming to the rescue we might end up with higher equity prices. Everyone at the brokerage houses have buy orders coming in if there is another sell off. My hand is going to be in the cookie jar if the market sells off from here with alot of other investors.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:09 - ID#30116)
Trick-or-Treat time tomorrow!

D.A. -- I don't know about tomorrow. There was heavy downside volume today. Hey, when Rush Limbaugh mentions the crash protection on his show, in the first hour no less... The first hour of his show has the highest listening numbers. That has got to have some kind of impact on investor psyche. He has a huge audience.

I do agree that another down Friday, especially a triple digit down Friday, would pose large problems. There is definite 'pushing' going on with the stock index futures.

I believe the BEAR is on. We are not ready for a bounce in stocks. If it happens, I'll call the short order cook. He'll know what to do. :- )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:09 - ID#37295)

Miro - agree with you. Must be the code. That might explain the problem.

Strange, though, that one group of posters ( you, kiwi, Highrise, Golden Cheesehead ) are only showing up on the 10:00 line, while another group ( me, Donald, Nick@aussie, DJ, Allen ) are only showing up on the 18:00 line.

Maybe we should blame it on Halloween.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:10 - ID#255151)

Nick @Aussie, 19:35--Fascinating. Not sure I get
everything. Are you saying that human psychology
has already shifted in these markets, but the price
has not reflected it yet? Any thoughts on a time
frame for the big move? Thanks for your posts, they
are always a treat at this most esteemed forum.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:12 - ID#194311)
China coming to the rescue?
You what?
Go right ahead on the cookie jar, just might be you'll be gnawing on your fingers before you get any cookies.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:16 - ID#30116)
LON DAVID -- Are you telling me that you're buying a dip, just because? What ever happened to company profits and earnings? Don't get me wrong here. I'm just wondering, are you a trader or speculator? If you are a trader/speculator, then that's O.K. We are in very treacherous markets here. Unless you have acess to GOOD data and a reliable CONNECTION to your broker, you may not like the results.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:19 - ID#335190)
Fictional Products @ Illusion Millions lost ""NO"", Others now have those Millions of $'s
October 30, 1997
Ex-CEO of Centennial, four others charged with fraud

BOSTON ( Reuters ) - The former chief executive of Centennial Technologies Inc. and four others were charged Thursday with securities fraud stemming from a revenue-boosting scheme, the U.S. Attorney for Massachusetts said.
Emanuel Pinez, 58, the former CEO of the once high-flying computer card maker, was also charged with two counts of insider trading and nine counts of money laundering, said U.S. Attorney Donald Stern.

According to the indictment, the scheme lasted from June 1994 to December 1996 and included false financial performance disclosed in SEC filings, hyped announcements about the company's activities and phony sales contracts.

The contracts were designed to create the illusion of a company prospering with millions of sales, including more than $2.0 million racked up through a fictional product called "Flash 98."

Chang Moing
(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:23 - ID#343333)
I have a dog. My dogs name is Kong. He is a very nice. I love him very much and I want to make sure he is taken care of when I die. What can I do?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:26 - ID#57232)
@Home - market cycles, psychology
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Thanks for the 19:35 post, and the others. I looked more carefully at one of your earlier posts, after I posted to you, and figured out part of what you are doing. If you have 6 or 7 major market intraday indexes, and they all trend in the same direction -- that is a market-wide trend, and significant. Even better if these indexes are independent ( that may be a Physics term only -- ie, unrelated ) .
One of your statements in the 19:35 post rings true. The market has cycles within cycles ( ie individual stocks ) . All is well if each of these stock cycles is independent of each other. This is like a synthesis of a collection of coherent transmitters of many different frequencies that are not in phase ( short temporal coherence length ) . If however, all of the cycles move in lock step the signal is much larger, just like transmitters that are now exactly in phase. The strength and temporal coherence length of the signal is only limited to how closely all of these signals match. This must also be very much like what happens on commodity cycles when the price is unchanged for years, and then apparently inexplicably explodes. Same idea!
You are assaying what I would call the temporal coherence length of the market. When everything is in lock step, the potential for a huge change in price is there! When everyone is working at cross-purposes, the temporal coherence length between stocks is short, and the market is not at risk for an up or down.
If you have not already done this, I would expect you would get something out of displaying market behavior around the world, one index under each other, in relation to the temporal cycle of East to West. When there has been a world-wide correction such as what we just had, I would bet that the temporal correlation between markets is extremely strong, and you could predict fairly reliably what will happen in Australia, based on what just happened in the markets due East of you!
I will study your graphs some more! Thanks again! By the way, do you use any of Fischers's work to predict how long to- and how high is- the next peak? ( ie, logarithmic spiral ) Do you recommend any books, or is this mostly home brew?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:31 - ID#265452)
I am a kitco lurker and enjoying all your postings, but have nothing to offer because I am a Chinese, not good at English.
However, my thought and my heart went with Goldbugs.
I have some unusual knowledge about the Bible and God, and hope to share with you guys.
That is a free book called "Modern Scientific Genesis of Bible".
It's like a voice in the wilderness but has some thoughts about our history and our future in this changing world.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:32 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:35 - ID#93199)
288000 ( Voice@Wilderness )

Welcome and I look forward to your posts.


(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:37 - ID#31868)
Nick: You constantly develop excellent reading and present some hellacious thoughts to back up what's going on out there. Good stuff.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:41 - ID#352177)
prognosticator : 17:41. Go$xau.x&time_period=Daily&bars=100?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=&mode=D

Na Hearadh
(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:44 - ID#352180)
Tha Misty Isles

Japan down 203.30 @ 16161!!!

Look out 15000

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:50 - ID#413109)
@ further study
Nick @ Aussie- Your lengthy, but very interesting Oct. 30 19:35-
requires furhter study, on my part. Right now I don't have the time
to think.
In a nut shell, what I believe you're saying is that the charts look
like a major turn "may" have, or be taking place. This probably of
a major cycle change, but the true confirmations are not yet in place,
and this could be a correction in the up trend which may still be in
tact. Do I have this right?
As I've stated, My work with charts over a 30year period, has been of
a long term nature. Short term I find I make as many mistakes as most
analysts. So what you seem to be talking about here is right up my alley.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:54 - ID#335190)
Brazilian Central Banker's @ Extreme Nervousness
October 30, 1997
Brazil jacks up rates to fight off speculators

BRASILIA ( Reuters ) - Brazil moved decisively to defend its currency Thursday, jacking up its main interest rates to plug dollar outflows as speculators set their sights on Latin America's largest country after wreaking havoc in Asia.
The Central Bank nearly doubled its basic interest rate, known as the TBC, to 3.05 percent a month from 1.58 percent and the rate it lends money to banks in emergencies, the TBAN, to 3.23 percent from 1.76 percent, effective Friday. The new rates were "emergency measures for a period of crisis," a Central Bank spokeswoman said.

Officials in the Central Bank, speaking on condition of anonymity, said its directors, who usually spend Fridays in the bank's offices in Rio de Janeiro or Sao Paulo, would remain in Brasilia to monitor the impact of the rate move on the markets. "They'll be in at the crack of dawn," one official said. The interest rate increase followed a day of extreme nervousness in Brazilian markets. Shares ended off 9.81 percent while
the real, which trades in a two-band system closely monitored by the Central Bank, closed down 0.3 percent at 1.1065 reais to the dollar in the commercial foreign exchange market.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 20:57 - ID#26793)
Globex -1010

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:03 - ID#333131)
Globex S&P down 1010, Methinks the Dow 200 day moving average is in grave danger tomorrow. If we go through it again, look out.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:04 - ID#401460)
Asia all RED again Hong Kong down 200 plus

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:05 - ID#335190)
Gold @ TSE Gold Index a miserable performer (has been eh!)
October 30, 1997
Gold price slump seen driving mine shakeup

TORONTO, Oct 30 ( Reuters ) - Gold, traditionally a safe haven for panicked investors, barely reacted to the chaos in global equity markets this week as the precious metal sank to new lows, sparking expectations of a major shakeout among North American gold miners.

"No gold company makes money at these levels. I think that is just a fact of life for most North American companies," one executive with a Canadian gold miner said on Thursday. London-based research firm Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd. said the current slump will affect half the world's gold output. It warned that prices below US$350 an ounce will make it very hard to finance the next generation of gold mines or even set up hedging programmes.

"Many people assumed gold would be a safe haven when financial investments look risky. But when one looks at what happened, there was no flight to gold," he said.

In a recent speech, Newmont Chief Financial Officer Wayne Murdy said the decline in gold prices has wiped out billions of dollars of shareholder wealth.

"It is significant that stock prices for the North American companies with the largest hedge positions have done no better than those with limited hedges," Murdy said.

Aside from a few brief rallies, the Toronto Stock Exchange's key gold index has been a miserable performer since the Busang gold scandal sparked a selloff in March.

The TSE's gold and precious metals index was trading around 7690 on Thursday, well off its peak of 11,534 in late February before the Busang fiasco broke.

Merger activity -- particularly among cash-strapped exploration firms with cheap stock prices -- is expected to pick up next year. "A lot of producers are looking for help and they are prime targets," one analyst said, noting that a few deals are already in the works. Denver-based AMAX Gold Inc. put itself in play last week, saying it was considering merger opportunities.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:06 - ID#401460)
From 2100 line
Post from other line
Date: Thu Oct 30 1997 21:03
Carl ( @home ) ID#333131:
Globex S&P down 1010, Methinks the Dow 200 day moving average is
in grave danger tomorrow. If we go through it again, look out.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:07 - ID#431263)
HERR GLENN! Good to hear from you, mein Freund! Consider your post this evening to be the most important of the day next to the one from God!: ) )
Sounds like sentiment on the floor is starting to shift big time toward thr precious yellow! Anecdotal evidence from the PM dealers and stories about big money moving into gold ( ala Bill Gates ) , sabre-rattling in the ME, and talk of a new round of currency devaluations in Asia and Latin America and now even Greece, potential mass short-covering by the funds and now a story about the Swiss trying to BUY gold and I think we've all the makin's of a genuine GOLD BULL! By the way, all my best technical indicators for US stocks are currently one SELL MODE and extremely BEARISH! Tomorrow could be more than a test of Monday's lows, I believe we will take them out like a knife through melted cheese! BULL trap in stocks and BEAR trap in Gold! They now will feed on each other! IMHO the results will astound the experts and PANIC THE PUBLIC! It won't be pretty! Keep us posted, mein Freund!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:09 - ID#27997)

Hang Seng down 2.8% just out of the gate at 21:02 Nikkei @ 16,150. Any guesses on the closing levels?

To Nick
(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:09 - ID#374108)
This is serious
Nick - we have a lot of fun at this site ( some more than
others, oftentimes me at the expense of others ) but I
just want to tell you as a dispassionate observer that
your statement that you can now predict market movements
six hours in advance is somewhat eerie, and not in a
positive way. Remember two weeks ago when I asked
if you were manic? You had a number of symptoms,
but because mental health is always joked about at this
site, usually to discredit other people's arguments, I knew
it wouldn't do any good to explore this possibility, and
I figured I was just reading things into what you were
saying and what you were saying you were doing.
This latest post, though, Nick, irrespective of where
people stand on what the market holds over the next
few days or few weeks, is decidedly not healthy.
I know I am going to be attacked for this, Nick, but
I will remain firm in what I am going to say: No one
can see the future, Nick, and those that think they
have found a formula or that someone is speaking
to them directly and specifically are deluded. Delusion
is not necessarily indicative of a major illness, but
it can be a sign. Think about this, Nick, and find out
if you have a history of manic/depressive illness in your
family. This is not a laughing matter.

George Glick
(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:10 - ID#377184)
O'Hara...your post to Donald about the DJIA/Gold ratio touching 1 in 1981 is close - actually reached an all-time low of 1.43 in 1980. Your post prompted me to dig in my file of useless items to retrieve a copy of an article in Barron's, May 25, 1987, by Stephen D. Stoller, titled THE
GOLDEN RULE A New Way To Measure Whether Stocks Are Cheap. As of May 20,
1987 the index had rallied to reach 4.68, still in the lower reaches of its historical range ( shade over 10 in 1929 to 10.98 in 1972 ) .

Stoller believed that given current monetary and economic trends, "gold's
price could stabilize or rise, as the Dow soars well above 3000". He
concludes "The stock-gold index has produced its peaks 40 years apart, but I think that, this time, high values could come much sooner. With an
undervalued dollar, America increasingly is affording bargains for foreigners, who seem likely to continue converting their greenbacks into U.S. assets of all kinds.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:15 - ID#335190)
Federal Reserve @ Clinton & Senate Rubber Stamp Central Bank appointments
October 30, 1997
Senate confirms Gramlich, Ferguson for Fed jobs

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The U.S. Senate Thursday confirmed President Clinton's two nominees to the Federal Reserve Board. Both are mainstream economists who stress the importance of keeping inflation low. The Senate confirmed by a voice vote Edward Gramlich, 58, a University of Michigan economist with broad experience in budget policy and social welfare, and Roger Ferguson, 46, a banking and management specialist at the New York consulting firm McKinsey & Co.

Both Gramlich and Ferguson are highly respected economists expected to fit in within the mainstream of the Fed, which emphasizes fighting inflation with the aim of promoting long-term sustainable growth. The normally seven-member Fed board has been operating with only five governors since the start of the year when Janet Yellen left to head Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers and Lawrence Lindsey joined a Washington think tank.

The nominations sailed through after Iowa Democrat Sen. Tom Harkin stopped blocking them. Harkin is a frequent critic of the Fed, which he says keeps interest rates too high and economic growth too low for America's small businesses and working families.

"They are fine individuals," Harkin said of the nominees. "But their economic philosophy and position on what Fed ought to be doing are too much in line with the present thinking of the Fed."

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:18 - ID#224267)
now dont be too hard on Nick, sometimes prognosticators get it right!

Nick, what's your scoop on the next 6 Asian Hours?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:19 - ID#26793)
Swiss Finance Minister Says Central Bank Should Keep Most

Swiss Finance Minister Kaspar Villiger spoke out against a recommendation from a
government-appointed panel that the Swiss National Bank sell more than half of its gold reserves.
Speaking at a Cantonal Business Association conference in Zurich, Villiger said Switzerland should
sell only the amount of gold needed to finance the Swiss Solidarity Foundation, a humanitarian fund
proposed by government, and keep the rest. Global gold prices fell after a panel of experts, in
drawing up a recommendation for the government, suggested Friday that the central bank transfer
as much as 1,400 metric tons of its 2,590 tons of gold reserves to local governments for sale on the
open market.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:19 - ID#335190)
October 30, 1997
Malaysia asks for G-15 support on market rules

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 31 ( Reuters ) - Malaysia on Friday urged developing countries to support its call for global rules to protect against currency volatility.
Malaysian Trade Minister Rafidah Aziz told ministers from the Group of 15 developing countries ( G-15 ) that Malaysia's economic fundamentals were strong and the government would continue to ensure they remained strong.
"As we meet today, the currency and stock markets of the world are facing a turmoil, with developing countries facing depreciation in their currencies," Rafidah said in a speech at the opening of a day-long meeting of G-15 trade and economic ministers.
"Although no one country is similar in terms of economic fundamentals to another, there is still that reference to the so-called 'contagion' effect of the volatilities and the turmoil.
"Malaysia has not been spared, although her economic fundamentals are strong, and the government will continue to ensure they remain strong, to attract long-term investors into productive economic sectors."
Rafidah said it would be opportune for G-15 countries "to ensure the global markets does not unnecessarily erode our economic strength and that global rules can apply to enforce transparency, equitability and also discipline," she said.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:20 - ID#255151)

IMHO, that "To Nick" post is f'ing nonsense. My advice to "To Nick" is to start drinking heavily!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:20 - ID#202318)
on the roll

S&P 500 DEC97 895.70 -740
E-MINI DEC97 895.50 -750
MAR98 902.25B -1000
NSDQ100 DEC97 993.00A -550

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:23 - ID#256321)
Gold is now moving up with oil. The Saudies must have cheap gold. Check mate.. games over

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:23 - ID#260135)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:25 - ID#57232)
Donald: I'm pretty sure there was a South American bank -- probably Brazilian - that had "sold" all of its gold in some manner. Someone else mentioned it in a post today, but not the name of the bank. It may have been the Brazilian Central bank.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:29 - ID#318109)

ID CHECK! Someone verify the ID# of most recent ANOTHER. Is he the same?

C.V. Compton Shaw
(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:30 - ID#342115)
Gold is both long and short term bearish. Silver is short term bearish and long term bullish. The XAU is still both long and short term bearish. The CRB is short term bearish and long term bullish. The dollar is both short term and long term bearish. Given the fundamentals of the crb and the dollar, current precious metals investments should be held without any additions made to the same until further evidence becomes apparent that the XAU and gold are bullish short and long term. If we have a bullish day in gold and the XAU tomorrow, we may have reached at least a short term bottom in the same. The major market indicies remain bearish both long and short term.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:31 - ID#57232)
Your ID# has changed - how odd! Even if you are not ANOTHER, point well taken! Gold should be moving down when oil goes up -- perhaps the powers that be are no longer willing or able to support the dollar. My only problem is that the "powers that be" could come up with another massive attempt to push gold down. Regardless, its just a matter of time before the quiver is empty.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:41 - ID#27997)

At 21:38, Hang Seng down over 4%. No updates on Nikkei since 21:02, where it stood at 16,150.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:42 - ID#335190)
President Bush & CIA & Cold War & Contra & Barrick Gold & Munk & Mulroney @ Taints Canadian UofT
October 30, 1997
Bush honor prompts outcry at U of T

TORONTO ( CP ) - The leafy confines of the University of Toronto could be the scene of an unusual and perhaps unruly protest when former U.S.
president George Bush shows up to receive an honorary degree next month.
The decision to confer the degree on Bush has split the faculty, with some professors promising to walk out when the ex-president is handed his
honor in an ornate ceremony to be attended by his friend Brian Mulroney.
University president Robert Prichard says Bush is being honored on Nov.
19 for his "lifelong commitment to public service and his pivotal role in
ending the Cold War."

Others say Bush's record as president and director of the Central
Intelligence Agency in the 1970s should exclude him from consideration for one of the university's highest accolades. "This is a career which at every stage has been marked by a contempt for legality and democracy," says David Galbraith, an English professor at the university.
"He has been closely associated with violations of international law for
most of his career," he added, pointing to Bush's implication in the
Iran-Contra affair in the early '80s and his alleged support as CIA head of covert military operations around the globe.

Bush's relationship with Peter Munk, the head of mining giant Barrick
Gold, also taints the honor, some professors say. Munk made a $6.4 million contribution to the university this week and U of T's new centre for international studies will be named after him. Bush is the senior adviser of Barrick Gold's international advisory board chaired by former prime minister Mulroney. Munk is the chairman of the U of T Foundation as well as a member of the executive committee of the university's fundraising campaign.

Jim McGrath, a spokesman for Bush, said the former president is flattered
by the U of T decision and not bothered by the uproar. He added that Bush is in "frequent contact" with Mulroney, who will attend the convocation for his longtime friend. "They're like brothers," McGrath said in a telephone interview from Maine. "He loves Brian Mulroney. George Bush loves Brian Mulroney."

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:43 - ID#401460)
Oil / Gold
Another from the Other
Date: Thu Oct 30 1997 21:23
ANOTHER ( Thoughts ) ID#256321:
Gold is now moving up with oil. The Saudies must have cheap gold. Check mate.. games over
I always thought they had a direct relationship to one another. Didn't understand what you were refering to " cheap Saudi Gold", but I think you are reffering to Gold now @ $316 and Oil now moving up to $21. That would mean that based on past Gold / Oil prices Gold needs to go to $350 plus to keep up with the price of Oil. ie., 320:19 as X:21 X=$354

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:47 - ID#386276)
It was more a rave to forward my view on how one can see market movements using charts, to show how the masses signal their intentions prior to their moves.

I saw this event as going to happen a year ago and basically stopped trading to focus in on this move.
To my mind what was about to happen, would provide me with the trade of a lifetime.
So I've spent the last six months focusing in totally, to pick the door of opportunity.

The charts looked like a major turn, prior to the march top.
When it took off again, on a steep uphill trend, I noticed the lockstep formation getting closer and closer.
The main trigger that I was watching, was staid old europe, CAC, DAX, SWISS.
These charts were showing a top like the dow in aug.
Then when they came to new heights in oct and failed before the dow, I knew it was all on the cards.
These indices have 500 years of old history behind them, so they gave a good strong signal.

At this point in time the charts have confirmed that we are in a definite down trend, and are showing classical moves that occur during downtrends.
I already accept that a major cycle change has already taken place.
This has been confirmed so strongly, esp by the masses.
They were indicating the change was about to happen, and are now confirming it whole-heartedly.
The type of mass mania, plus the massive volatility seen now,
never occurs except at a fundamental turning point.

This is not a break in the uptrend but a new trend engaged - down.
This trend will continue down untill it's exhausted.
We only have to wait till the bulls finally capitulate, and then it will fall over quicktime.
The severity of the crash will give the clues to how long it will take to reverse the trend.

It amazes me how people who have been trading this bull run, still treat it as a bull run and are still using the same methadology that they used when they were trading the bull run.
The trend has been confirmed down this last week, and it's time to trade it as a down trend.

I picked up some spx puts two nights ago by waiting till the dow bounced of its resistance channel.
It tested those tripple bottoms made during sept within 1 point.
Fell into a little dip, then bounced back up to test its last high.
When it failed at this second point I bought.
This is the sort of methodology that works in a downward trend.

Hope this helps

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:55 - ID#26793)
George Glick, O'Hara: I was not aware, and still can not locate, a post to me from O'Hara so I am responding blindly to George Glick. I was not aware of Mr. Stoller and the Dow/Gold Ratio. I had heard that someone in Indiana did some work on it in the 60's but nothing since then. I dispute the Stoller 1929 number. On September 3, 1929 the Dow was 381 with gold at 20.67 giving a ratio of 18.43. That was the high for that cycle. The next peak was 37 years later with a ratio of 28.61. The last peak was in July and August at 26.2 ( once with spot, again with near futures ) I am calling it a peak because the ratio has never reversed after a 10% drop from the peak. We had the 10% drop on Monday. With only 3 peaks in 100 years that may not be a good sample but it sure has the feel of a peak so far. Lows for the ratio are November 1903 with 1.80, January 1933 with 1.90 and January 1980 1.40 ( using the bb fisher chart )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:55 - ID#412171)
Nick, whats in the cards for tomorrow? Is the market going down big or what? Would you buy puts right now? Thanks

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:59 - ID#202318)
Hey guys, don't get bogged down on all these technibanalities. An ounze of gold still buys a nice suit and some 300 loafs of bread! I doubt the downtrend will leave us with with a pair of boxer shorts anytime soon. Cheer up and keep buying some more...

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:59 - ID#427357)
Novus Ordo Seclorum ( Rothschild, George Soros et al ) versus the Chinese Dragon --- world monetary and political dominance the prize --- TRICK OR TREAT????????:

(Thu Oct 30 1997 21:59 - ID#401460)
From another poster,JTF, on the other line answering Another who he says may be another instead of Another - oh whatever.
Date: Thu Oct 30 1997 21:31
JTF ( @ANOTHER? ) ID#57232:
Your ID# has changed - how odd! Even if you are not ANOTHER, point well taken! Gold should be moving down when oil goes up -- perhaps the powers that be are no longer willing or able to support the dollar. My only problem is that the "powers that be" could come up with another massive attempt to push gold down. Regardless, its just a matter of time before the quiver is empty.
If I remember the concept - the price of gold is held down so that the price of Oil will be maintained at a lower constant price. Therefore if one goes up the other will - JTF your wrong.
If Gold is driven up by demand, Oil will go up.
If the price of Oil is driven up by shortage or a conflict than Gold will go up. Therefore, something like a worldwide financial meltdown will be needed to force these two up.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:02 - ID#213443)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:09 - ID#26793)
JTF: Some of the posts have to be taken with a grain of salt tonight so the Brazilian sale could be linked to the Greek sale reported by Zorba and the Israeli sale reported by Moise. These sales of central bank gold may have something to do with the speculator attacks by George Soros on the Nauru guano. As you know, the guano has been under attack by hedge funds. Now that they have 19 ounces of gold they will cover Soros with guano. This is going to be very good news to Dr. Mahathir, a staunch defender of guano stability.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:13 - ID#287279)
The major economy most vulnerable to an acute financial crisis is now Japan, according to a world authority on international finance.
Morris Goldstein, of the Institute for International Economics in
Washington DC, said yesterday that problems with financial systems
were "fairly widespread" among the major economies of North Asia
-- Japan, South Korea and China.
"But if you look at where systemic risk is largest, it's in Japan --
there's no doubt about it, because it comes on top of other things that
have happened there," he said in an interview in Sydney. . . .
He said Japan was set for "a truly world-class banking crisis".
Already three Japanese banks had collapsed.
A senior economist with Nomura Securities in Tokyo, Nobuya
Nemoto, agrees that the crisis could soon enter an acute phase.
"Another two or three banks will collapse this fiscal year, to the end
of next March, and the Deposit Insurance Corporation is supposed
to support them, but they have no funds left," he said.
"The problem has become so big that it is politically impossible to use
public funds to rescue them."
Dr Goldstein said the economic crisis in Asia was unusual because it
was moving from small countries to big. Financial crises typically
began in a major economy and then infected smaller ones. . . .
The notorious US savings and loan crisis was insignificant by
comparison. The cost to the public sector of solving that crisis was
only around 3 per cent of the country's total economic output or
Jardine Fleming estimates that the ultimate cost to the Japanese
Government will be 11 per cent of GDP or about $US500 billion.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:18 - ID#401460)
ate: Thu Oct 30 1997 22:13
Shek ( home ) ID#287279:
The major economy most vulnerable to an acute financial crisis is now
Japan, according to a world authority on international finance.
Morris Goldstein, of the Institute for International Economics in
Washington DC, said yesterday that problems with financial systems
were "fairly widespread" among the major economies of North Asia
-- Japan, South Korea and China.
"But if you look at where systemic risk is largest, it's in Japan --
there's no doubt about it, because it comes on top of other things that
have happened there," he said in an interview in Sydney. . . .
He said Japan was set for "a truly world-class banking crisis".
Already three Japanese banks had collapsed.
A senior economist with Nomura Securities in Tokyo, Nobuya
Nemoto, agrees that the crisis could soon enter an acute phase.
"Another two or three banks will collapse this fiscal year, to the end
of next March, and the Deposit Insurance Corporation is supposed
to support them, but they have no funds left," he said.
"The problem has become so big that it is politically impossible to use
public funds to rescue them."
Dr Goldstein said the economic crisis in Asia was unusual because it
was moving from small countries to big. Financial crises typically
began in a major economy and then infected smaller ones. . . .
The notorious US savings and loan crisis was insignificant by
comparison. The cost to the public sector of solving that crisis was
only around 3 per cent of the country's total economic output or
Jardine Fleming estimates that the ultimate cost to the Japanese
Government will be 11 per cent of GDP or about $US500 billion.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:18 - ID#37323)

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:25 - ID#403159)
@big bucks
Dow 8100 / Gold 285 by 11/07/97 Dow 4000 / Gold 2700 by 05/10/99

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:25 - ID#267276)
On the day of the crash in 1929 someone told me that John D. Rockefella had Winston Churchill there as his guest. Does anyone know if this is true. And who is bringing the head of china there tomorrow?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:28 - ID#401460)
Gold=Nice Suit
xchanger: I was thinking about the suit relationship, and well, I just bought a suit and found that the price of a nice suit has gone up. I don't think you can get the bread with the deal any more. An ounce of Gold would not have come close to buying my suit - it had a Vest.
Based on my purchase Gold should be @ $400 plus.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:29 - ID#222167)
The Hong Kong and Southeast Asian financial crisis has now spread to Brazil and Mexico. The threat is now moving closer to the United States, and direct losses to US banks are becoming greater.

The rebound from the Monday mini-panic is over. Penetration of short-term support at DJIA 6900-to-7100 is likely to be achieved as early as tomorrow. When it does happen, a panic far greater than Monday's will result. The first down day of more than 1000 points could easily occur.

Nick: It seems that "To Nick" can't find a logic-flaw in your arguements about why we are going to have a financial collapse. Hence, he has resorted to the old trick of "Argument by Intimidation" -- if he has been defeated in arguement, he trys to smear your character. Don't fall for it. Make "To Nick" explain to you logically what is wrong with your thinking. For one, I can't see anything wrong with your logic.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:29 - ID#288352)
Does somebody on this forum know why International Avino Mines ( IVV:VSE )
stopped trading on Aug. 28, 97 ?
Any help appreciated

Bob M
(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:32 - ID#26059)
Do not bother with the events going on in Asia, focus on the Middle East..something very big is about to happen there...

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:33 - ID#30116)
Carl -- According to my charts, we have broken the 200 day moving average on the Dow twice this week. We are decisively below 7415.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:33 - ID#57232)
@Home - another failing market - Brazil, (Russia too?)
Donald: Your post on the Brazilian gold "sale" -- We certainly have had some wild posts today! I do recall something about gold loans - I use the term "sale" when that is the effect on the market, and I don't know what happened. I didn't mean that I thought there were true ( underline true ) gold sales.
At this point it is moot anyway -- looks like "lookout below" in Brazil -- and another of our markets is heading south.
I suspect that if the Nikkei falls to 15,000 the outcome is certain. Comments about any dead Japanese banks? Did you notice the turmoil in Russia -- the Russian market is heading south too!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:33 - ID#401460)
29 Crash/Roskefeller/Ford/Churchill

Date: Thu Oct 30 1997 22:25
digdeep ( ) ID#267276:
On the day of the crash in 1929 someone told me that John D.
Rockefella had Winston Churchill there as his guest. Does anyone
know if this is true. And who is bringing the head of china there
I don't know that story but Henry Ford threw a party for 200 of the riches people the night before the crash.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:34 - ID#401460)
ate: Thu Oct 30 1997 22:32
Bob M ( ) ID#26059:
Do not bother with the events going on in Asia, focus on the Middle
East..something very big is about to happen there...

Date: Thu Oct 30 1997 22:29
Puetz ( ) ID#222167:
The Hong Kong and Southeast Asian financial crisis has now spread to
Brazil and Mexico. The threat is now moving closer to the United States,
and direct losses to US banks are becoming greater.

The rebound from the Monday mini-panic is over. Penetration of
short-term support at DJIA 6900-to-7100 is likely to be achieved as early
as tomorrow. When it does happen, a panic far greater than Monday's
will result. The first down day of more than 1000 points could easily

Nick: It seems that "To Nick" can't find a logic-flaw in your arguements
about why we are going to have a financial collapse. Hence, he has
resorted to the old trick of "Argument by Intimidation" -- if he has been
defeated in arguement, he trys to smear your character. Don't fall for it.
Make "To Nick" explain to you logically what is wrong with your thinking.
For one, I can't see anything wrong with your logic.

Dan Russell
(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:36 - ID#271186)
Puetz, how about all the buy orders sitting on stock brokers desks to buy as soon as there is a sell off. How can you have a panic down. The buyers still have money to spend.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:37 - ID#401460)
I am alone
I am talking to my self!

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:38 - ID#227238)
Nick: Excellent work on synchronised indices. I suspect many traders have unconsciously used some of that without formal detail. You have provided a valuable service in providing a measure of rigor to the business.

JTF's follow on comments regarding phase relationships stimulated an idea that perhaps it would be possible to design an indicator that was amplitude modulated in inverse relation to the relative phase difference between indicies. When all indicies were cooking in phase, a sharp spike would be produced. When chaotic, the indicator would be relatively flat. Just a thought.

What is key in all of this, without question, is your recognition of the ( predictive ) importance of synchrony. A tip of the fedora for a job well done. ........... and wouldn't you know it, the print routine ( been a problem recently ) in Netscape picked this time to fail completely...... but your thoughts are trapped on disc.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:43 - ID#386276)
to Maniac Observer.
You're probably right about that, my family think I'm nuts staying up all night here in OZ, but I just tell them that I'm trading.
I do have some strange habits but don't we all?
I learnt when I was fishing to work hard when the prawns were running.
No different now.
A chance like this comes but once in a lifetime.
I'm taking it and running with it and it's paying off very well at the moment.
I might be taking a big risk but so what, that's what life is for.
My guess is that I'll be out of my put positions within a week and the risk will then be reward.
I stay up all night long and half the day just to make sure I have my eye in.
I have been averaging around 4 hours sleep a day for the last two weeks and will continue till my positions are closed.
As for my gold positions I will go and have a sleep between now and then and they are paid for win or lose.
You wouldn't believe the positions I hold in puts and the prices that I picked them up for.
This is my baby and I intend to look after them.
I'm only 39 and will be looked after for the rest of my life.
I'll be here when you're back in your bed don't worry.

As for predicting what the market is doing.
All I can do is play and call what I see, don't we all do that, yourself included?
I saw a play, looked at it hard and serious, and took the plunge.
So far I am playing my calls and booking the profits

If you think no one can predict the market you shouldn't be at this site.
You obviously have no confidence in yourself and your own calls.
All traders predict the market, that is how they win.
If you don't have the strength or gall to stand by your convictions, how could you predict which way the price will go, when you do enter a trade.

Go and spend a day at Avid and watch how real traders predict how they will make their living.
Some of them are beautiful to watch, because they look, observe, judge, then act.
You only have to watch for a night to see who is good at predicting and takes home the money at the end of the day.
You obviously don't spend enough time looking at charts, otherwise you would not have said what you did.
If you did, then you would trade by them and you would have to predict by them.
So you can't be a trader, nor can you be a gambler because you lack the conviction to follow your own predictions.
If you are neither of the above, what are you doing here, apart from disturbing people who tend to take their investing seriously.
You sound like the regular sh*t stirrer who has little to do and is so bored that you get your pleasure by tormenting people.

If I am totally wrong in my take of you.
And that you have money in this market.
Be very, very careful, don't go to sleep or it may be gone in a second.
This coming week, like the previous week, holds the greatest risk ever seen in the last ten years.
Guard your riches well.
You can get stung on the downside, as well as the upside.
To be in this market at the moment, you must be hedged for protection.

Anyway, after all that what is your take on the market?
Do you have any trades in at the moment, making you money?

If the answer to the above two questions is no, then you would be better off somewhere else.
So would the rest of us.

Sorry for the length of the post but I tend to ramble along a bit when I am tired.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:44 - ID#267276)
HIGHRISE please repost your 22:33 I only got the email address.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:46 - ID#403159)
@ big bucks
The S&P is off on a rocket ship into outer space. The decline today was a buying opportunity. We will never see Dow 7000 again in our life times.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:47 - ID#222167)
Dan Russell: I'm not sure what buy orders you are talking about. Do you have some inside information that I don't know about? If so, please reveal your source and the amount of buy orders.

I do know that the New York Stock Exchange has recently reported that member firms have issued $126 billion in margin credit. And the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that these member firms have been issuing droves of margin calls since last Thursday. The Journal also reported that brokers were allowing clients under margin-call to wait the full 5 business days allowed to come up with the money, hope for a rebound, or sell stocks to meet the call. Today was the first day when a significant number of those calls came due. More selling pressure will come tomorrow and Monday.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:47 - ID#227238)
To Nick ( This is serious ) : ..... From Mr. Medication: Hep.nut.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:50 - ID#401460)
Repost as requested

Date: Thu Oct 30 1997 22:33
HighRise ( 29 Crash/Roskefeller/Ford/Churchill ) ID#401460:

Date: Thu Oct 30 1997 22:25
digdeep ( ) ID#267276:
On the day of the crash in 1929 someone told me that John D.
Rockefella had Winston Churchill there as his guest. Does anyone
know if this is true. And who is bringing the head of china there
I don't know that story but Henry Ford threw a party for 200 of the riches
people the night before the crash.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:52 - ID#57232)
@Home -- followup to Nick(@Aussie)
Nick ( @Aussie ) - Your 19:35 post was very interesting - still reading it.
I will make one point only to see your opinion. IMHO the bigger the market trend shift, generally the longer it takes the synchrony to build up. In other words, usually the market cannot "turn on a dime", because it takes time for all the independent elements to synchronize. Therefore the pattern you see must develop before ( underline before ) the trigger causes the event. This allows one to see something before it happens. At first this seems uncanny, but there is probably nothing bizarre about this -- it just means that an accumulation of many early trigger events primed the market for the turn before the big one and this is what you detect. Of course, the "big one" need not occur, but if you have other technical/fundamental data, you will be able to increase the odds that you are right.
A corollary to the above is that "the more random ( unsynchronized ) the market is, the bigger the triggering event needs to be" to cause a major market shift up or down. I think the Astrological indicators work in the same way, but I do not understand this well yet -- my best guess so far is that certain Astrological events can synchronize the behavior of certain susceptible individuals.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:53 - ID#227238)
JTF ( @ANOTHER? ) : My guess is that the CB's, presently, have enough on their collective plate to deal with. Gold and its continuing subjugation are no doubt still important but I suspect that attention spans in the "war rooms" are somewhat scattered at the moment.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:57 - ID#401460)
Time to Pay Up
Date: Thu Oct 30 1997 22:47
Puetz ( ) ID#222167:
Dan Russell: I'm not sure what buy orders you are talking about. Do you
have some inside information that I don't know about? If so, please
reveal your source and the amount of buy orders.

I do know that the New York Stock Exchange has recently reported that
member firms have issued $126 billion in margin credit. And the Wall
Street Journal reported on Monday that these member firms have been
issuing droves of margin calls since last Thursday. The Journal also
reported that brokers were allowing clients under margin-call to wait the
full 5 business days allowed to come up with the money, hope for a
rebound, or sell stocks to meet the call. Today was the first day when a
significant number of those calls came due. More selling pressure will
come tomorrow and Monday.

This is what I have been talking about all day!
Margin Calls started coming due today, more tomorrow, And those who bought Tuesday are have to pay tomorrow and Monday. There has to be tremendous shortage of cash that will pyramid through out the World.

There is $60 Trillion unwinding this week. How much money can they print and can they print it fast enough.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:57 - ID#411149)
to all- some of the most sinceable people on this channel are George S. Cole and D.A. George is a retired executive with years of experience and
who I RESPECT very much and D.A. who is a person with great responsibility to his clients and I also have the highest RESPECT!
Then I have my own experience of more than 30 years of investing in the markets. What the HELL do I do NOW!???
Well it depends on your goals and risk tolerence.
If you are a real ENTREPRENEUR and want to excell and can stand the risk of business! You might consider being invested in gold shares [60%], then
S&P puts say 20%, then gold call options 20%, then 10% cash to bury you if all goes to HELL! I hope to see you in the WINNERS circle!!


Tally Ho

George Glick
(Thu Oct 30 1997 22:59 - ID#377184)
Donald: O'Hara posted Oct.30 at 16:49. If you would like, I'd be willing to copy the article by Stoller and post by U.S. Mail, or you can check your local library for the May 25, 1987 copy of Barron's ( on film ) .

Dan Russell
(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:00 - ID#271186)
Puetz, Thank you for your response. In prior crashes is the market today mirroring the same up and down movements? Where do you think we stand today in that regard? Also CNBC interviewed some brokers that had buy orders in when the market comes down. What do you think?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:02 - ID#57232)
Earl: I appreciate your post on the False ANOTHER post. I did go back and look at a long-term world gold bullion price trend, and with our Swiss bank fiasco, the LT trend is actually still down. But oil prices are indeed going up and the dollar is dropping. I think what is more important than the LT trend in gold is that we have spotted an "awakening" in the general population to the value of gold as a "reserve" asset. Perhaps only a twitch of life so far, but you must start somewhere.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:03 - ID#401460)

Dan Russell
(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:08 - ID#271186)
Earl, our we in sell territory on stocks or is this a side ways moving monster? I heard alot of damage was done on Monday? Do the lows have to be tested? Thanks for your help !

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:13 - ID#247309)
@ thoughts of stupidity

Another stupid post
(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:16 - ID#247309)
@ if you believe in me you believe in th tooth FAIRY
Aren't I mysterious.DOOOOH

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:20 - ID#310207)
Sinclair. The company International Avino changed name to Avino Silver & Gold Mines. Traded under ASM.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:21 - ID#227238)
Dan Russell ( ) : A testing of the Mon. lows is only important to he who intends to buy that dip. ...... I would defer - completely - to Nick ( 19:35 ) and Puetz on the sanity of such a move. In a later post, Nick provided a link to some worldwide index charts. They are worth a moment's attention. You might conclude that the quickest way to double your money in general equities, at the moment, is to fold it in half and put in your pocket.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:22 - ID#262354)
Somebody in the room yelled "Fire and nobody listened and then came the big barbecue.

Another blast of hot air
(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:26 - ID#247309)
@ BiG LitTlE TrAdEr
Big trader=DOOOOOOH

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:30 - ID#310207)
Sinclair. International Avino changed name to Avino Silver and Gold

Mines. Trades in Vancouver under ASM.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:30 - ID#30116)
How curious! Halloween, that celabration of the un-dead and evil spirits, sees the Globex headed up, Asia up, and Gold down. I guess tomorrow must not be allowed to 'fail'. Bad for the bulls self confidence you know.

Esoteric stuff:
Some Dow stats;
This months high/low = 8184/6975
Delta = 1209 points for this month ( so far )
3.4 billion shares traded so far this week on the NYSE

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:36 - ID#335190)
MAI = FAST TRACK @ Corporate USofA = Less Government by the people
October 30, 1997
Clinton steps up drive for trade deal authority

WASHINGTON, Oct 30 ( Reuters ) - President Clinton is stepping up efforts to win special authority to negotiate trade deals in preparation for votes in Congress next week on the controversial legislation, the White House said Thursday. Spokesman Mike McCurry said Clinton will argue for fast track trade negotiation authority in a speech on Friday at a major
Florida port.

Both the House and the Senate are scheduled to vote on the legislation under which Congress gives up its right to change trade deals. Lawmakers can vote for or against them, but not change them. An agreement among Senate leaders to debate campaign finance reform early next year, cleared the way for a vote next week on the fast track authority that Clinton desperately wants. Procedural delays and partisan bickering over the campaign finance reform issue had threatened the fast track bill.

Fast track support is shaky in the House where members have been lobbied hard by labor unions and environmental groups opposed to the legislation because it limits the president's authority to negotiate labor and environmental issues in trade deals. The House is scheduled to vote next Friday even though leaders have said they are about 20 votes short of the 218 needed to pass legislation. But many lawmakers have been sitting on the fence and now that a date has been set, positions are likely to
solidify over the next week.

Clinton wants fast track to negotiate an expansion of the North America Free Trade Agreement ( NAFTA ) to include Chile and to strike other market opening deals in Latin America and Asia. But fast track opponents point to problems with NAFTA as a reason to reject new trade authority. They argue that NAFTA has cost U.S. jobs, supressed wages and done little to
raise living standards for Mexican workers.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:36 - ID#30116)
Weekly Dow chart, what do you think???

Famous psychic
(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:37 - ID#340186)
Stay far away from the stock market. A terrible accident is about to happen. Many people will lose all their money.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:38 - ID#30116)
@Monthly Dow
Again, monthly dow chart. What do you think?? Buy the dips?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:41 - ID#217243)
I see a NEW MOON a risin'
I think the bottoms gettin near ( Gold that is )
I'm watchin' IBM a droppin'
I see a panicing and fear

Don't short gold tonight
or your bound to lose you life ( savings )
There's a NEW MOON on the rise.

( thanks CCW )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:41 - ID#310207)
Sinclair. International Avino changed name to Avino Silver & Gold. Still trades in Vancouver, but now under the symbol ASM.

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:43 - ID#30116)
Looki, looki! Gainers everywhere except for gold. Geeee! How did that happen? Aren't index futures and options a wonderful thingi? :- ) )

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:45 - ID#320102)
Asian markets moving up, Globex S&P @ +290, Gold dropping all about the same time. What's going on?

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:47 - ID#335190)
MAI @ Corporate USofA
Multilateral Agreement on Investment
Draft, Distributed January 13, 1997


[ Back to Multinational Monitor Home Page ][Public Citizen's Fact Sheet on the MAI ]

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:48 - ID#30116)
Looks like the CBs have their own private chat room. :- ) ) Is this what they mean by, 'co-ordinated efforts'?

Time to hit the hay. Good night all........................

(Thu Oct 30 1997 23:53 - ID#256321)
Part 1
As the turn of events occurs a massive inflationary
depression will take hold. The United States will
be forced to raise rates multiple basis points to
keep a lid on inflation. This will tilt the world
into a massive liquidation of all assets and
a final collapse of the world financial system.
The president will then have to speak to the
American people and the world informing us
the worlds financial system is bankrupt.

Part 2 later