Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Sun Nov 02 1997 00:02 - ID#253183)
@I'll do ya right
If things are going to continue around here I need to start collecting some premiums. As of tomorrow there's a cover charge at the door. Pay or post somewhere else. DON'T FORGET MY MONEY TOMORROW.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 00:14 - ID#357210)

(Sun Nov 02 1997 00:14 - ID#255190)

Hey, Jin, thanks for the posts. I feel only a small part of the problems you face. Will remember your struggles. One good thing for you is that your country is not so over developed as Europe or America. Here people expect the stores to always have food, etc. Most cities would be on their knees in three days if our trucks stopped moving goods. Warehouses here only hold three days supply of anything. If we ever had a bad time like you in Asia I do not know if we would survive well. People here get angry just sitting in a car in a traffic jam. Carry more guns than ever. God have mercy on you and us as well.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 00:25 - ID#394165)
JJ: Here's a tip for you. Buy XAU calls next week.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 00:26 - ID#348169)
Does anyone else here notice that the few, illogical, obnoxious types who post here always seem to back off when they can't give a reasonable response to anyone who actually gives logical refutation to their inane reasonings? Goodnight All. Say goodnight, Gracie. Goodnight Gracie.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sun Nov 02 1997 00:34 - ID#25867)
A lot good it does posting this message on November 1st. Here it is again:

THE FIRST DAY OF THE MONTH has been restored. You might have to press the reload or submit button an extra time to get it,but it's there. It won't work for October or December, but if you want to catch up on all of Nov 1, 1997 you shouldn't have any more problems.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 00:45 - ID#402127)

I am very glad the system is functioning perfectly, Bart. I was becoming worried about you. This mission cannot allow for human error.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 00:56 - ID#364121)
I've moved from camp david to Quantico Va. where my best
observations can be made. As you may or may not have noticed
Clinton hasnt spent time at camp david. REASON: iTS THE BEST PLACE FOR PEOPLE WHO THINK FOR THEMSELVES. We are on the verge of an explosive geopolitical situation this country has ever
expierenced. While Clinton is busy raising political funds the rest of
the now free world is planing their strategy on how to take market
share from a country with a strong curriency and an attitude of being
able to control those markets.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 01:04 - ID#348165)
Commodity Price Charts weekly update shows weekly sentiment change
in graphic format for gold, as well as many others, however it would
be nice to find a free web source for this same info, if possible.
If anyone could post a site, it would be a plus for everyone.
Come early Monday AM, I think I will announce the bank of SLOBBEVENIA
is thinking,***ONLY THINKING***, about a nice big gold sale. Of course
all my friends, along with yours truly, will be loaded up to the hilt
with lots and lots of gold puts.
From observing the last few classic LEEMING RESPONSES to the recent
sales threats, my new beach house, or maybe plural, would be a done deal.
Even though this is a joke, it is not a funny joke to many who have lost
money due to this type of market insanity. Averaged production costs from
the entire industry is projected between 293.-316. Can anyone verify this
to a closer average? Enjoy the posts on this site. There are some clever minds here for sure.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 01:09 - ID#253187)
@I'm the Tough Guy Around Here!
Hey Murray;

& you too, Toughguy:

EAT ME!!!!!!

PAY UP!!!!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 01:10 - ID#401460)
US & Nazi Gold
Report: Federal Reserve reissued Nazi gold in 1950s

NEW YORK ( AP ) - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York melted down $23 million worth of Nazi gold bars and recast them in the 1950s, replacing the swastika with a U.S. seal, The New York Times reported Sunday.

Not a conspiracy just business as usual.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 01:16 - ID#364121)
JJ: When your feet fit my shoes than maybe you can consider
toughguy status. Watch your java you are violating Kitco ground

Southern Man
(Sun Nov 02 1997 01:23 - ID#289175)

You tell em. Tough Guy!

JJ, you worthless pile of sh*t! You can run, but cha caint hide!
I warned ya once you cowardly wimp!

Maybe this is the hepcat you all refer to.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 02:17 - ID#33164)
Still no 1st Nov here
BART: Morning!

Oct 31 is accessible.

There is no 1st November , and I've refreshed and submitted countless times.

Please will you check again? Thank you.

The BIG Beaver
(Sun Nov 02 1997 02:33 - ID#373337)
@Beavers Den
Southern Man


The war's over.......

(Sun Nov 02 1997 02:41 - ID#173410)
the smoke has cleared, the trick of the game is
knowing when to hold and when to fold............

who said what, and when was it said? another chapter has
been written, and having met with elvis here in vegas, he
said to fold-em.

chaos and flux are 'rippling' their way toward your abode....

cherokee!; ) in-the-land-of-great-vistas-- ( ; ) : :::::!; )

Strad Master
(Sun Nov 02 1997 02:42 - ID#250297)
Missing day...
BART: My problem is not with accessing Nov 1st but with getting the rest of Oct. 31. When I set up to look at Oct 31st, instead I get Oct 30th. What happened to Oct. 31st? I wanted to pick up where I left off. Thanks

(Sun Nov 02 1997 02:45 - ID#173410)
where is all of oct bart?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 02:52 - ID#252127)
Switzerland a neutral country accepted transactions with both axis and allied powers during WW2 _ who the hell is to say they were guilty?

It's probable that a small percentage of those who have a legal claim against the Swiss can prove they are right, the other 95% ( or even higher ) are just in it to make a buck.
We gold-bugs who believe in hard money have to suffer with this along with the other media hype against gold.
This whole Swiss situation smells a world monetary powers "bully attack" on the what was the last bastion of fiscal sanity.
Their large banks are being blackmailed so that they "may" have a position in the global economy _ DEALING WITH THE DEVIL IS NEVER A CERTAINTY.
NY and London banks were pumping huge sums of money into Germany in the 1930's, so that Hitler and his cronies could create havoc around the globe at everyone expense. Now Switzerland a small independent country takes the hit along with us believers in honest money.
Now "please read" between the lines of this report

(Sun Nov 02 1997 02:59 - ID#253187)
@trippin through memory lane

Strad Master

Your problem pales in comparison to mine. I'm having problems accessing REALITY. You dig? Obviously similar to Cherokee's problem. Right Cherokee, buddy? What you smokin tonight?

Too many drugs I guess is what did it for me not to mention my motorcycle accident - 98 mph into a meandering cow. It happened up in Montana. I was only 7 years old at the time so don't remember too much except for the pretty nurse who brought me flowers in the hospital. My old man, on the run from the Hell's Angels, wasn't so lucky - he went head first into the cow.

What's your story Cherokee?

Strad Master
(Sun Nov 02 1997 03:00 - ID#250297)
Aha! Zee plot... She thicken!
ALL: Today's LA Times has a big photo on the front page with the caption, "Chineese President Jiang Zemin gives thumbs up along with New York Stock Exchange Chairman Richard Grasso, after ringing the opening bell on trading session that saw stocks rise." Inside there is another photo with the caption, "President Jiang Zemin shakes hands with IBM Chairman Louis V Gerstner Jr. at IBM's New York offices." Can anyone explain to me what the *%#! the "President" ( HA! ) of the most repressive, slave-labor economy, totalitarian, communist regime ( outside of North Korea ) is doing schmoozing with such "capitalist running dogs"? I don't quite get it. BTW, was it purely coincidental that the Hang Seng crash, which brought the US markets down so much, happened at the same time "President" Zemin was visiting the US?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 03:02 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

(Sun Nov 02 1997 03:04 - ID#348165)
Took me a few minutes, but JJ, the same don't fit your Email address.
Maybe your other aka is John Jerkoff. Close, but it fits you oh so well.
You like to talk, so maybe you need a few thousand Emails every hour or so. Just keep up the chatter squirrel, and strange things will start to happen.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 03:12 - ID#253187)
@Bring it on!
Murray bud - Eat me!

I'm a lonely kinda guy - by all means - flood my e-mail address. I would very much appreciate that. I don't get too many people responding to my posts being that I'm on the fringe of reality and all. Happy that you enjoy conversing with me.

Take care and look forward to that FLOOD of e-mail!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 03:12 - ID#252127)
Prime Resources Group was hit pretty hard this past week

Now; it looks like they are going after the good ones. Compare PRU ( Amex ) and tse:pru ( Tor ) at its present price, its earnings, cost of production and cash at hand with any of the big guys on the XAU and you will see what I mean. Prime has a web site Also, Soros interests sold a portion of Newmont, which makes things look bleak.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 03:23 - ID#332153)
beneath the paper volcanoe
God, here is a tip for you, shuffle off in to a retirement village and
let your son do what he has to do. That is; MAKE MY DAY PUNK.

Who Cares
(Sun Nov 02 1997 03:27 - ID#244209)
Come on, damn it

So, Puetz. Where's The Crash already? Dang it, I'm tired of
waiting. : )

Check this link out -

Check out the comments and numbers on DOW manipulation. : )

Check out Nick Chase -

Check out the comments and numbers on DOW manipulation. : )

Go Greenspan! Go Jiang!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 04:10 - ID#33164)
WHO CARES-Links@3:27
Hello Who Cares:

Thanks for two very interesting links. Did you see Nick@ Aussie's post [this week-end] on 'Ramping"?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 04:40 - ID#31876)
Instead of monies flowing into U.S. stocks, here's an opinion that
"repairs" in S.E. Asia will drain the world piggy bank ....

Steve - Perth
(Sun Nov 02 1997 04:50 - ID#284177)
Booby Traps ahead for anxious investors? ( news item )

Steve - Perth
(Sun Nov 02 1997 04:58 - ID#284177)
Iraq says it will bar US Arms inspectors

Last paragraph talks about in the food for oil deal last December,
the US prevented Iraq buying certain items from Russia, France & Italy.
There is something going on here.
In the media spin dept, Suddam Hussein was presented at an Art Gallery handling a very long sword ( great image! ) , but was casually dressed for the first time that I can remember in a light blue cardigan, casual shirt & a portly stomach hanging out. Not exactly military greens!!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 05:20 - ID#33164)
Do you have this link?
This seems to be a very good site, with News Updates daily plus 'Noteworthy Quotations"

(Sun Nov 02 1997 05:22 - ID#288100)

Could someone help? There was a URL posted here a few days ago about cycles and waves. A great site, but I lost the URL. It may have been Nick or Colleen who posted it. Thanks.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 05:47 - ID#237127)

Here are some photos of the Bendigo tram in Oz. The top link is in Adelaide.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 05:54 - ID#237127)
Try again

(Sun Nov 02 1997 05:58 - ID#237127)
eh, wot?

Hey, I just noticed the cars were driving on the wrong side of the street.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 05:58 - ID#258277)
this may be the cycle url

(Sun Nov 02 1997 06:07 - ID#288100)

Bob2: Yep, that's it. Thanks.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 06:09 - ID#288100)

Bob2: Yep, that's it. Thanks.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 06:10 - ID#33164)
Seekerl -Url?
Hello Seekerl,

It could be Ray Tomes site you're looking for? Unfortunately lost it during the turmoil of the last week. JTF can help you.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 06:11 - ID#22157)
Yank, great snaps, whats the go though. Are you suggesting that the
only reason they dont dig up the streets of Bendigo is because they figure they will get more tourist dollars than gold dollars.
Ah! The myth of what lies beneath the streets of Bendigo.
Thats right, myth!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 06:13 - ID#31876)

BART --- You son-of-a-gun! I've finally figgured out why we're
having all these date problems on this discussion site.

Why didn't you tell all of us that you're practicing and
practicing for Y2K??????

(Sun Nov 02 1997 07:00 - ID#26793)
Carl: The serious money, multinational corporate accounts, have probably already been cleaned out of of Asia. I would suspect that that the runs are over and the little guy locals are the last to find out. The big guy locals keep their accounts in the U.S. or Switzerland and won't be affected. You recall the situation in Mexico where it was charged that it was not a Mexican rescue but a Wall Street rescue. That is the other possibility.

The greater problem is the change in psychology as this news sinks in around the rest of the world and other countries in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Africa start wondering how long before it reaches them. They are wondering, as do we, where are the safe places. The terrible answer is that no country is immune. The problem is so huge it is difficult to comprehend. It is starting to take on a life of its own. At some point, soon I think, it will be more than the IMF, BIS or any of the CB's can deal with.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 07:12 - ID#26793)

(Sun Nov 02 1997 07:17 - ID#31876)

BOB M. -- Numismatic activity in my area seems to be picking up. Like

at my favorite coin shop there is more bid board movement and more

participation at the coin auctions. Any comments about this maybe being

the last time for a long time to pick up some fine coins?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 07:19 - ID#26793)

(Sun Nov 02 1997 07:50 - ID#333131)
@little guys and banks
Good Morning good people. Donald, thank you for your 7:00 post. I agree with all you said. I'm wondering, however, if the little guys aren't going to spread the banking problems over other places in Asia ( and perhaps South America ) quickly, now that there is a whiff of closing with an arbitrary amount of reimbursement.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 07:55 - ID#26793)

(Sun Nov 02 1997 08:05 - ID#333131)
@doubts and concerns about unrest in Indonesia

George Cole
(Sun Nov 02 1997 08:06 - ID#42953)
Most Americans still optimistic on the stock market

(Sun Nov 02 1997 08:08 - ID#364147)
@ capebreton
Good morning Donald and all Kitcoites....48 degrees with high winds and overcast kayaking today! go gold!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 08:15 - ID#386276)
Charts and more charts.

Dow, Transports, Utilities monthly '82 to '97

Dow monthly '29 - bollinger bands - log scale

Dow monthly '82 to '97 - bollinger bands - log scale

Dow weekly '97 - bollinger bands - log scale

Dow weekly short term '97 - bollinger bands - log scale

Dow weekly '87 to '97 - buy/sell indicator

Dow daily '95 to '97 - buy/sell indicator

Dow daily '97 - buy/sell indicator showing divergence

Dow weekly '29 - moving average exponential - fibonacci sequence

Dow weekly '87 - moving average exponential - fibonacci sequence

Dow monthly '82 to '97 - moving average exponential - fibonacci sequence

Dow daily short term '97 - moving average exponential - fibonacci sequence

Medium term swing chart - adv/dec/unc -

Steve - Perth
(Sun Nov 02 1997 08:25 - ID#284170)
Asian outlook remains volatile

(Sun Nov 02 1997 08:32 - ID#26793)

(Sun Nov 02 1997 08:44 - ID#26793)
Hi Ted: 61F and cloudy. Big thunderstorm last night after all day heavy rains. Winds up to 50MPH, 30,000 homes without power ( not us ) in the area. Might be heading your way.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 08:48 - ID#286199)
Leland: Friday, bullion coin demand was discussed if you can get back there. Blanchard says they have bullion coins, but they are way late shipping certain numismatic coins. So late, that they are including a free Morgan silver dollar with the orders. Other dealers are either out of stuff or have plenty depending on where you look. This is an area which deserves more study.

Bob M
(Sun Nov 02 1997 08:54 - ID#26059)
Leland- for myself, auction activity has picked up in the last few thing I do know, is that true rare coins are nearly impossible to come by right now..and when you do find them you can throw the Graysheet out the window because the price in there is not relevant.The people holding these upper end coins are not selling them right now at these price levels. A friend of mine who is one of the premier Morgan dollar dealers tells me if your buying these to make a 30% profit, your wasting your time. He anticipates more like a 300-500% rise over the next several years for these particular scarce pieces of numismatic history.I have some slabbed common date Morgans right now,,those are not moving as fast as the rareties. Time will tell.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 08:57 - ID#26793)


Domestic demand is evaporating

Ordinarily, a decline in inflation is a welcome development. But in view of the
turmoil enveloping Southeast Asia, the current sharp slowdown in China's inflation
rate looks ominous. At last count, consumer prices, which were rising at nearly a
30% clip in late 1994, were up less than 2% on a year-over-year basis and still
losing steam.

China's problem, according to Joseph P. Quinlan, an economist at Morgan
Stanley, Dean Witter, is that domestic demand has evaporated as consumers
worry about massive layoffs caused by a restructuring of state enterprises. With
capacity utilization down to 58% recently and with warehouses bulging with
unsold goods, China has been pulling out all the stops to promote exports--taking
market share from its Asian neighbors. But that strategy has helped spark the
current round of competitive devaluations.

To keep growth from sputtering, the government recently cut interest rates. If, in
addition, China decides that it must devalue its currency again, warns Quinlan, we
could see a vicious devaluation spiral that would threaten to plunge the entire
Pacific Rim area into a widening recession.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 09:01 - ID#31868)
There have been a great many "lurker's" and folks that are new to this site looking for info, stocks, etc. Try some of these. I hope you find them to be of service to you

(Sun Nov 02 1997 09:05 - ID#26793)

(Sun Nov 02 1997 09:13 - ID#26793)

Steve - Perth
(Sun Nov 02 1997 09:16 - ID#284170)
20th October, 1997

Since July/August, Eastman Kodak fell 32%

WW3. The next almost global war has been blue-printed for mid to late 1998. The effect of world stock & bond markets would be devastating. Anticipation of a war is quietly creeping into the edges of some stocks & markets, notably ( but not exclusively ) the sudden upturn in oil ( amidst an oil supply glut ) , & gold, two war-sensitive items.

The plan is designed by Syria, Russia & Iran, the worlds prime villains. The chief victim will be Israel. The country next most at risk ( from nuclear suitcase bombs ) is the US, with some Euro cities possible hostages. If this plan is implemented, most Baby Boomers can kiss their retirement plans goodbye. We cant prevent war, but we can shout warnings to Western govts ( so far they remain blinkered ) .

Its long past time the West faces the TRUTH about Russia, which is NOT a country, but a KGB-run operation, unchanged from Cold War days, masquerading reform to fool the West. Even their slave labour gulags remain intact. All 1000 of them! We have many sources for all well cover, some will be named.

Why war now? Because the Arabs have wrung all the freebies they can get from the Israeli Govt, who have, in fact, given too much for their own safety. Netanyahu may not be popular but their is no Jewish mandate for further land giveaways. Also, the Arabs are neutralising Israels nuclear deterrent. Also, Syria has far more Scud C missiles with advanced type chemical warheads than previously thought. Also more launchers on 2-1 ratio, instead of usual 10-2; will enable Syria to launch a barrage of missiles at Israel in one go. This could intimidate Israel to not use its nuclear arsenal. Also, Turkey is being neutralised. Turkey & Russia may war with each other, as part of the master plan. Russia & china are arming Syria & Iran. The key is to neutralise the US, to prevent it coming to Israels aid. This is to be done via "nuclear suitcase bombs" in the US. 2 top Soviet VIPs declare many are missing. That may or may not be true but what US President will call their bluff? "Help Israel & we destroy Chicago" ( or NY, LA, Miami, take your pick ) . Israels best hope is probably a massive first strike. That seems the best hope of eventually winning the war but probably not preventing it from starting. In fact, it would trigger the war, but Israel has no choice.

As an early suggestion: get positioned in gold shares & oil shares that wont be impacted by a cutoff in Mideast Oil. Eg Royal Dutch, BP ( good charts ) . We close with these words from Intelligence Digest "Israel, Iran, Turkey & Russia are on an 18 month countdown to war. 1998 looks like a year to fear."

ADVICE: If youre buying bonds now, it seems safer to stay with SHORT term bonds. High grade 5 yr govt bonds give you about 94% of the yield of a 30 yr bond with about a quarter of the risk. If the EMU Euro currency is postponed ( due to Y2K or referendum problems ) , the DM will rocket within a micro-second.

FIRE ESCAPE: 3 DJIA stop levels.
7580, 2 ) 7400, 3 ) 6350. Last is likely GLOBAL red light for stocks. ( Steves comment - were nearly there as at 2nd Nov ) .

HSL, PO Box 622, CH-1001 Lausanne, Switzerland Fax +32 16 535777

Steve - Perth
(Sun Nov 02 1997 09:25 - ID#284170)
22nd Oct. 1997

Ive never liked a pattern where the market has two successive distributions, with the second distribution starting FROM BELOW the peak of the first More times than not, this is the recipe for trouble.
( DJIA August & late Sept. )

The big blue chip stocks, the stocks they tend to be owned by large, sophisticated investors, are the leaders. Once a Dow trend is set, sooner or later everything else will follow.

As long as the Dow holds above 7600 I believe the bulls have a valid case. But if the Dow breaks decisively below 7600 ( which it has ) particularly on expanding volume, Id say that the bear has taken over.

( DJIA Oct. 28 7161, Oct 29 7,498 )

To subscribe:
P.O Box 1759, La Jolla, California 92038
US$250 annually - 26 newsletters per year

(Sun Nov 02 1997 09:28 - ID#31868)
Odd is it not. Gold demand is up, gold is all over the news, gold involved in scandals. Gold, gold, gold and more gold. India, Germany, Asia, etc. all buying gold. Even rumors of James Bond and a man with a golden gun have surfaced as of late.

It would seem to me that there is a huge charade going on. Even if there were three billion ounces above ground it would disappear pretty quickly. Throw a few billionaires and millionaires into the fray, add a few hundred thousandaires, hundredaires, and a pennyaire clown like me and I say the above ground supply goes.............poof, voila'.....gone like a magic trick.

This whole supply and demand thing seems a little bit ridiculous to this clown.

Now that I have openly admitted to being a clown I am sure that this will not be the end of it. But, at least at the outset, I know going in, I am going to get a few laughs. I mean this global market has become a circus has it not? I have my nose on.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 09:37 - ID#31868)
Donald-Nick: As usual, thank you for all the great posts.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 09:43 - ID#426220)
This past week we all witnessed the market making ALL-TIME
RECORDS: greatest one-day DOW point loss in history on Monday,
followed by the greatest one-day DOW point gain in history on Tuesday. It's my considered opinion that internal dynamics of the market do NOT have the required strength to cause such whipsaw action... there must be an external force exerting inordinate pressures. I may be too old-fashion, but I thought market manipulation was illegal - regardless who the culprit might be... or is it that some are above the LAW?! We received via email visual evidence there is indeed blatant and obscene stock market manaipulation. Here is the report with charts - comments and observations invited:

Steve - Perth
(Sun Nov 02 1997 09:43 - ID#284170)
El Nino Chart ( Excellent )
Lands EAST of the bright yellow areas may experience prolonged drought for the next 18-24 months.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:00 - ID#26793)

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:03 - ID#26793)

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:12 - ID#20746)
RCA (1925-1929) and MICROSOFT (1993-1997)
Deja Vu All Over Again?! From 1929 to 1932 RCA lost 97% of its market value. Recall RCA was the #1 High-Flying Tech stock of the 1920s.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:13 - ID#60253)
A reprint from last night:

Date: Sat Nov 01 1997 21:35

Do you think that value has been lost by
holding physical gold all these years?
If the answer is yes, you are wrong!
I tell you now, its all in your perception
of what is value and what is real.
Gold has been increasing in value since
the early 90s and doing it at a rate much
higher than any other investment. Cannot
see this? Hear me now, what the wealthy
and powerful know:
real value does not have to always
be stated or converted
thruout time. It need only be priced
once during the experience of life, that
will be much more than enough!

Worldwide the oil business is still conducted in
dollars. But, an interesting side show is now
taking place that will change the way we think
about gold and oil!
If you wanted to devalue the US$ against other
currencies what would be the best way to do it
without LOWERING interest rates in the USA?
Perhaps you want to cool off an over active stock
market without raising rates ?
Could a smart CB Chairman kill two birds with
one stone ?

The US$ could be effectively lowered against most
of the leading currencies by slowly taking it off the
oil standard! This could be done by introducing
a new concept to the world:
create a mechanism whereby a form of CB
paper gold could be traded for oil as a side
premium. So, instead of them taking physical gold
off the market at its now MAINTAINED
commodity price, let them take gray paper
CB gold priced at its true value in US$ for oil.

You see, this could solve the problem of supply
that is also the problem for LBMA!
We now have a parallel market with gold
trading at its commodity value on the physical market
while being held for its oil value by major players.

You dont think this is true?
Think now, as the answer becomes clear:
Who is on the other side of the long gold deals that
contango the metal far above its current commodity
price while freezing out most small private buyers?
Why is gold being slowly transformed into a new
kind of hybrid asset, traded an for oil value of many
thousands of dollars per oz.?

One more thing, Big trader left HK some time ago
and is now in a waiting game. No posts are from
him. The post was not me on this date:
Date: Fri Oct 31 1997 16:09
ANOTHER ( thoughts ) ID#256321:

More later

Date: Sat Nov 01 1997 22:43

Asia put an end to a sweet deal for the
West! From the early 90s it was working
very well. But now:

The problem with gold physical supply is
very real indeed! But, there is no way that the
CBs will continue to sell off an asset for
its commodity price that has many times
more value as money! The talk of sales
will continue for years but the real act
may come to a close very soon as they
try to take the LBMA off the supply
hook by offering gray paper deals.

If they are not buying it, then:

The falling markets worldwide are
an early warning that the gold for oil deals
are coming undone! As the big players are
now heading for the exits in anticipation of
exploding oil prices, the selling pressure from
the CBs will quickly come off gold.
The end of a parallel gold market pricing
structure will leave many, many players holding
nothing at all!
The third world markets are the first to go
as their currencies are crushed time and time
again. Europe will be next, closely followed
by the USA!

As for the US$ and T- bills held overseas,
they dont really exist!

more later

Date: Sat Nov 01 1997 23:55

The act being played out now is much larger
than the business of find the gold in the ground!
In the world today there are only three assets,
gold, oil and currencies. The paper currencies,
so long admired and accepted are now in a war
of self destruction. They will consume each other
in an end battle of Im the last man standing
but have lost all use as a unit of value. Each
nation state is trying to add a kicker or
premium to its trading paper as a means
of buying oil. This does not mean any country
will go without oil, they will have to work with
oil priced at a value rendering them uncompetitive.
National stock and bond markets do not like
this kind of news!
Inflation? We are not speaking of currency price
inflation here. This is currency destruction because
my national IOUs are being devalued by cheap oil
supply problems!
As was said before, the real gold market that most
people invest in is gone! Any gold trading paper
will evaporate in the heat of fire now starting to burn.
I tell you now, when the currencies are at nuclear war,

George Cole
(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:19 - ID#42953)
Dumb and Dumber
I sometimes wonder who is the greatest enemy of gold investors -- the western CBs, Wall Street, or mining company managements. Every time the yellow rallies a few bucks we read about heavy producer forward sales. It is none thing to sell forward when bullion prices are high. But selling forward at current price levels is nothing short of idiotic.

How dumb can these guys get! They certainly aren't helping their shareholders. Their forward selling helps drag bullion prices lower. And that in turn pushes down the stock prices of all gold producers, hedged and unhedged.

You would think that these idiots would have learned their lesson by now. All the mining companies ought to get together and agree to halt forward sales until the bullion price moves back above $340 and stays there. Unless these guys learn to hang together they are going to hang separately

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:21 - ID#347332)
What you saying? Bill Gate's MicroSoft is gonna plunge?
Where's the beef?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:21 - ID#33164)
Donald & Another
Hello Donald; Hello Another,

just logged in to find your excellent posts.

Donald, your Iraqi/Nerve Gas 'headline' : This needs only a hair-trigger's provocation. I think Saddam Hussein, above all, will stand against the world on principle alone. He should not be trifled with.

Another: Thank you for your thought-provoking posts. The other Kitcoites have a greater knowledge of these things than I, but your posts make a lot of sense. Thank you.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:25 - ID#33164)
Hello Yogi Berra and Mikey,

Please will you give me a quick lesson on this Microsoft/RCA issue referred to here?

George Cole: I have learnt a lot from your posts in the past month, and thank you.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:28 - ID#412171)
@bone breaker
JJ told me to come down here a pay you folks a visit. We have a problem. You guessed it "POW". Now when I get back those coffers better be full. Now get up before a really smash your face in.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:29 - ID#347332)
TO tolerant1;
Your blanchard and dinesletter link do not work.
It could be my problem.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:32 - ID#284170)

INDONESIA: First dose of IMFs tough medicine begins to hurt

Italy set to renew links with Libya

US Fed toying with raising rates

Asia Currency slide bad news for Aussie exports ( includes cotton )

George Cole
(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:33 - ID#42953)
Unambiguous forecasts.
Another: People on this site are interested in the performance of their gold investments here and now. The fact is that gold bullion and gold stocks have been locked in a huge bear market these last few years while most other assets have risen in value. Telling people that bullion will surge someday in the distant future does not serve them well if encourages them to hold on during a ferocious bear market.

Would appreciate your clear and unambiguous views regarding the future direction of bullion prices. Is the bottom in or close at hand price wise and time wise? If not how low do you see prices going and how fast?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:35 - ID#347332)
TO George Cole ( 10:19 ) ;
Forward hedging will continue. Too much pressure from
shareholders. Management must protect their board of
director seat and their cash flow. Sad to say but true.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:36 - ID#284170)
GEORGE COLE: It is interesting to see your thoughts on forward sale of gold by Mining companies. Harry Schultz has been "doing his block" about this issue for years now. At this point in the market, I can see why.
I think they are more interested in pandering to fund managers who are chasing guaranteed dividend yields than the more valuable capital growth potential.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:36 - ID#262242)
Kitco is slow this morning so I will add my thoughts. The world CB's have been printing paper money for the last 25 years with no restaint. They have used the printing presses for political purposes. Since our ( USA ) constitution mandates that our money will be backed by gold or silver, I can not understand how they can do this legally ( any comments Tortfeaser? ) . It is just a matter of time until we have runaway inflation. The poster was right, when this happens, the citys will burn. IMVHO.

Nick, send me your E-Mail address, I have a letter for you.
Tolerant1 ditto.

Off---------to church

George Cole
(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:37 - ID#42953)
at home
Colleen: Thanks for that excellent URL you posted this morning!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:40 - ID#41182)
Asked a local coin shop here about availability of
Maple Leafs etc. Said he had sold out on last drop
and didn't have any! This was a small retail dealer.
But all trends start at the bottom.

Lurking and enjoying


(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:40 - ID#347332)
TO Steve - Perth; Well said Steve. However mine is better.
Just kidding.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:41 - ID#253183)
@my turn
Rocky gets back he will be ripping heads off. Pay or get off my channel.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:50 - ID#386276)
Three reasons why gold must fall.
1 )
AG & co. do not want a rush from paper to gold.
They need their money markets to keep their well oiled machines running.
With overseas holders of US paper debt likely to recall their capital, to help their own ailing economies.
The US will need a massive amount of money, to go into bonds to cover this shortfall.
All the money that is being removed from the equities markets, will need to find a new home.
Bonds are a traditional play in a bear market, and this is where they want the money.
With all the global property markets at near highs, with a looming depression.
They will not be an attractive choice of investment.
Gold is at the bottom of its price range and is one of the few under value real assets.
Governments of the world, do not wish for a 'flight to safety' rush, having its effect on gold.
The Governments must at all costs stop this flight to gold from occuring.

2 )
Many people are selling gold to pay off their debts.
These people who suffered substancial losses or were bankrupted by the falling equities markets are selling gold to pay their way out of paper debt.
The people who have no debt and assets, they will be buying gold.
The people who have debt and assets, they will be selling gold.

When the sellers have finished selling, then the buyers will have the upper hand.
This could well last till after the looming sharemarket crash.
As time will be needed to review ones financial status.

3 )
EB knows something I don't know.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:53 - ID#333131)
@Steve-Perth, Donald,From Steve's post-search word for the next few days:UNREST

In Palembang, a major industrial city in Sumatra, police were called in on Saturday as scores of depositors tried to break into a bank after news of the bank liquidations were broadcast nationwide.
In Bandung, south of Jakarta, depositors flocked to branches of closed banks, but were turned back by police.
Kompass newspaper said hundreds of frustrated depositors had telephoned demanding the Government publish the names of the bank's directors so they could be prevented from leaving the country.

George Cole
(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:54 - ID#42953)
forward selling
Mikey: My point is that forward selling will NOT long protect dividends and cash flow under current conditions. It certainly is not supporting stock prices. When most of them are selling forward at very low prices -- the net impact is that bullion is driven down further and the whole industry suffers. Too, heavy producer forward selling emboldens the shorts to further escalate their attacks.

Granted we cannot expect any one company to cease and desist while all the others continue. That is why I said they must learn to hang together or they will hang separately.

Hopefully the current period of depressed prices will trigger a massive industry shakeout and consolidation into a small number of truly powerful players. That would do a lot for the stocks even if bullion remains depressed for awhile.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:56 - ID#289249)
@razor edge
I'm getting thirsty again. When I leave my mark it's lethal. JJ is getting to pull the stops out and send me out.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 10:57 - ID#335190)
Velocity of Circulation @ Federal Reserve (Debt = Money)
"Velocity of circulation": This is the speed at which money changes hands; if it is gold buried in the peasant's garden, that is a slow velocity of circulation, caused by lack of confidence in the economy or the nation.

Very rapid velocity of circulation, such as the stock market boom of the late 1920s, mean quick turnover, spending and investment of money, and it stems from confidence, or overconfidence, in the economy.

With a high velocity of circulation, a smaller money supply circulates among as many people and goods as a large money supply would circulate with a slower velocity of circulation.

We mention this because the velocity of circulation, or confidence in the economy, also is greatly affected by the Federal Reserve actions, Milton Friedman comments in Newsweek, May 2, 1983, "The Federal Reserve's major function is to determine the money supply. It has the power to increase or decrease the money at any rate it chooses."

On March 21 1960, Congressman Wright Patman used a simple illustration in the Congressional Record of how banks "create money".
"If I deposit $100 with my bank and the reserve requirements imposed by the Federal Reserve Bank are 20% then the bank can make a loan to John Doe of up to $80. Where does the $80 come from?? It does not come out of my deposit of $100; on the contrary, the bank simple credits John Doe's account with $80. The bank can acquire Government obligations by the same procedure, by simply creating deposits to the credit of the government. Money creating is a power of the commercial banks....Since 1917 the Federal Reserve has given the private banks forty-six billion dollars of reserves."

How this is done is best revealed by Governor Eccles at Hearings before the House Committee on Banking and Currency on June 24 1941:
ECCLES: "The banking system as a whole creates and extinguishes the deposits as they make loans and investments, whether they buy Government Bonds or whether they buy utility bonds or whether they make Farmers' loans."
MR. PATMAN: " I am thoroughly in accord with what you say, Governor, but the fact remains that they created the money, did they not?
ECCLES: "Well, the banks create money when they make loans and investments."

On September 30 1941, before the same Committee, Governor Eccles was asked by Representative Patman: "How did you get the money to buy those two billion dollars worth of Government securities in 1933??"
ECCLES: "We created it. "
MR. PATMAN: "Out of what?"
ECCLES: "Out of the right to issue credit money."
MR. PATMAN: "And there is nothing behind it, is there, except our Government's credit?"
ECCLES: " That is what our money system is. If there were no debts in our money system, there wouldn't be any money."

George Cole
(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:03 - ID#42953)
at home
Bart: What are your views about the current state of the gold market and where it is headed? You are one of the best informed experts here, but I don't recall you ever having given us your take on these matters.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:08 - ID#57232)
@Home - Cycles and Hal 9000
Morning Everyone! Did Kitco handle two more ANOTHER posts last night without too much turmoil this time? Interesting correlation -- Kitco "full moon-like" turmoil also increases during market turmoil, or the anticipation of same. Making this psychological activity into an indicator would not help very much --more like coincident, or lagging rather than leading. Don't need a full moon do we?
Colleen: Here's Ray Tomes' web site. Do you have an internet browser so that you can bookmark sites?
Hal 9000: Are you behaving yourself? Strangely enough, my call for help to Houston didn't get through yesterday. Did you move the microwave dish? Can't locate Dave this morning either.
Nick ( @Aussie ) : I did get your great posts about the Royal George, and the Troops breaking step while crossing the bridge! On the latter, did you get my joke that this was the ultimate plunge protection?
Donald: Great post about deflationary concerns in China. Frightening thought -- what would happen if China and Japan both decide to deflate their currency? I'm not sure what that means if a floating or semi-floating currency is devalued. It would seem that other countries would have to follow suit. If everyone goes on a binge of competitive devaluations, what are all the currencies being devaluated against? Commodities, Oil and Gold? Food for thought!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:08 - ID#333131)
@George Cole
George, Re forward selling - Are you familiar with The Prisoners' Dilemma?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:09 - ID#253183)
Times up. Hand over the coin.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:17 - ID#20135)
I read Bart's message about getting the infamous Nov 1 meassages. I still can't bring them up. Submit and reload are not doing the trick for this puppy. Any suggestions, tricks, shortcuts to ... Nov 1st?

George: What do you think about this posts from ANOTHER? Especially about gold stocks?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:20 - ID#413109)
@Very Interesting
Date: Sun Nov 02 1997 10:13
ANOTHER ( RECAP! ) ID#60253:
A reprint from last night:

I've read what you wrote, and am confused and concerned.
Are you advising any gold company shares should be sold
even at these depressed market prices?
What about oil stocks- these are paper too?

If one sells out one's entire holdings, what does one invest
Would appreciate an answer either via email
or to all at Kitco. THIS IS HEAVY STUFF!!!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:22 - ID#253183)
@fed up
A. GOOSE your gonna get plucked. You snuck in without paying. Find another pond to play in or else.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:23 - ID#31855)
I was reading that the bear market in precious metals and related stocks since 1980 ( with a few bear market rallies ) is the longest and most persistent bear market in the history of the commodity and financial markets. Is this true?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:24 - ID#390249)
"Soros puts his money on Indonesia" - he gets this one wrong
I found the following article in a monthly Indonesian publication. This was published Oct 1st, 1997.


George Soros, the international financier and famed currency speculator, said he has been a recent buyer of the Indonesian currency.

Following his speech to the World Bank/IMF Conference, Soros called a press conference to counter charges from Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad that Soros and other speculators who bet on currencies by either taking "short or long" positions, were responsible for the region's currency's woes and that such practices should be abolished.

Soros called Mahathir a "menace" and a "loose cannon" and stated that "only by putting hs statements into perspective ( can ) his damage be avoided." Speaking on the same stage a day earlier, Mahathir said currency speculation should be outlawed.

Soros said he hasn't been a player in the ringgit market enough to affect the Malaysian currency in recent months, although the country "has a problem with excessive credit exposure."

"The situation is Indonesia is nothing compared with that," said Soros. In the press conference, Soros said, "I can confirm we have been buyers of Indonesian rupiah. We are long the Indonesian rupiah."

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:25 - ID#33164)
El Nino
Steve-Perth: Thanks for that El Nino site. We're certainly feeling the lack of decent rain in the past few weeks here in Jhbg.

There's an interesting couple of pages from Fred Crooks 'Update' dd 16/9/97 that I e-mailed to JTF - Quantum Couplings between El Nino's as a predictor of Stock markets, as well as other things. As a physicist as well as a knowledgeable investor he will be able to help us out there. Just hope he can open those files so that I can email the other 9 pages.

-A small quote from one of these pages:.

1] "A statistically significant correlation exists between El Nino events, turns in tidal activity measured in the Bay of Fundy and sharp losses in Stockmarkets "

2] " A severe El Nino is on it's way and therefore another factor can be added to the 15 already mentioned to support the case for the stockmarket crash this year, followed by hard times in the agricultural sector and inflated food prices"

"All of this means that the COLLECTIVE TRADING PSYCHE is a WARNING system capable of picking up impending environmental changes, as reflected in weather patterns and tidal forces"

Steve - Perth
(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:29 - ID#284177)
Date: Sun Nov 02 1997 10:40 Mikey ( @home ) ID#347332:
Mikey, obviously great minds think alike, as I hadn't read your post when I posted my response to George's comments.

BillinOregon: Enjoy church. I went to the evening service. Time for bed. Will lurk back here probably after the close of Monday's Mkt in the US. May watch the close of HK also. Count down to danger period....

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:30 - ID#347332)
TO George Cole;
If a company let say ( BEMA GOLD ) can extract 1 ounce
of gold @ 182.00 ( including capital spending ) with their
new partner PLACER DOME in Chile and forward sell @ 384.00,
shareholders are happy, management is happy, BEMA & PLACER
are happy. This MUST BE DONE while gold craps out @ the
bottom somewhere around $270-280. Small gold companies
will close shop soon or get swallowed. Big companies
will survive with the help of hedging. When gold recovers
above the strike price ( in my example of $384 ) They'll go
in the open market and re-purchase all their contracts.

Its gonna get worst before it gets better. The best time
to buy is when blood is running in the streets. The BLOOD is
NOT running in the streets. MOMENTUM investors are too busy
chasing the bull market. Why in THE WORLD would anyone buy
gold right now. Its the pits.

I have given my prediction in the past to where gold will go.
Browse late September. This gold forum is too busy still.
When gold breaks that $300 on its way to $280, I get the
feeling the Kitco Server will be sleepy with nothing to do.

Dow dropped 540 points Monday, usually gold would rally on
such an occasion. Nothin'!!!!!!! Get my point?

Please be patient. I am patient. I have 30 years for the price
of gold to recover before my retirement. Look at the
BARRICK GOLD LEAPS ( January 2000 ) . Interesting aren't they?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:30 - ID#57232)
ANOTHER: Appreciate your post of Nov 1, 23:55. Lets assume that the main problem is that the currencies of the world are going through a self destructive process - due to the fact that the true value of these currencies is now being seriously questioned. This process is inevitable at some time -- it is simply the Kondratiev wave -- the cycle between paper and hard assets.
Lets also assume that the "powers that be" have enough influence to prevent a wholesale "flight to the safety of gold" until after the paper collapse.
I will have to think about this -- but would you agree with this possible scenario so far. All I can think of right now is that all the major currencies will soon be going through a process of competitive devaluation. There already is talk about this in Japan. This process is inflationary, not deflationary. If however, the next step is that Japan starts shutting down banks, and giving 10cents or less on the dollar so to speak, that would be deflationary- just as it was in the 30's. The tidal wave have to rise up before it breaks.
Are you saying the Central banks might go so far as to sell all their gold to keep their respective currencies afloat during the inflationary - pre deflationary phase? A last ditch selling frenzy to save the current economic sys

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:31 - ID#57232)
ANOTHER: Appreciate your post of Nov 1, 23:55. Lets assume that the main problem is that the currencies of the world are going through a self destructive process - due to the fact that the true value of these currencies is now being seriously questioned. This process is inevitable at some time -- it is simply the Kondratiev wave -- the cycle between paper and hard assets.
Lets also assume that the "powers that be" have enough influence to prevent a wholesale "flight to the safety of gold" until after the paper collapse.
I will have to think about this -- but would you agree with this possible scenario so far:
All I can think of right now is that all the major currencies will soon be going through a process of competitive devaluation. There already is talk about this in Japan. This process is inflationary, not deflationary. If however, the next step is that Japan starts shutting down banks, and giving 10cents or less on the dollar so to speak, that would be deflationary- just as it was in the 30's. The tidal wave would have to rise up before it breaks.
Are you saying the Central banks might go so far as to sell all their gold to keep their respective currencies afloat during the inflationary - pre deflationary phase? A last ditch selling frenzy to save the current economic system? I don't know.
Please clarify your scenario -- this is very important to all of us!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:31 - ID#253183)
@pay up
LAST CALL or the music stops.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:32 - ID#364147)
@ A. Goose
Go to October 31 and from there to Nov.1...

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:33 - ID#57232)
All - Sorry about the double post. There are some typos in the first one.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:35 - ID#228128)
anyone: Do South African gold mining shares bought as ADRs in the U.S. pay dividends? If so, is it the same % as the non-ADR shares?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:36 - ID#386276)
You should really come and have a look at OZ.
We really don't need guns to defend ourselves.
Most people here are pretty good blokes and girls.
We already have a very multicultural mix, and generally get on well with each other.
I think that it was a good idea to get rid of the excess guns within our society, as there were a few loopies running around and shooting up people.
The Gov't stuffed up totally on the way that they did it but.
They spent massive ammounts of money to buy back the semi's and auto's.
Most of these owners were paid big bucks for their old guns and went out and bought flash new guns with their profits.
The Gov't could have been far more effective if they had just banned ammunition.
Made it so that you needed a licence to buy ammo and only from a Gov't seller.
Some people would have found a way around this but you can never totaly contain any society problem.
It would only take a year and most people would have no ammo left and then you'd have a lot of people with useless guns and then you could round them all up for peanuts.
I have used a gun at sea for shooting monsters.
But think that people shooting other people are monsters.
I myself would prefer to see a more peaceful world and endorse our Gov't's stance, as I have no wish to see my children packing hardware just to go to school, like I see happens elsewhere in the world.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:37 - ID#284177)
I agree with this comment from ANOTHER or whoever...

I tell you now, when the currencies are at nuclear war,

The question is, what will?? Direct food I suppose.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:38 - ID#33164)
Afternoon to you both! {:-}}

Popping in and out whilst doing Sunday night cold supper...Good to see you.

JTF: Yes I do have book marks [ increased a 1000fold since joining Kitco a month ago!] but in the chaos and fatigue of the past week, plus lost cyberposts- it's gone. I DID go in to Ray Tomes site, [it's jolly good] and e-mailed him. He replied, saying he's very interested to know about Crook's work and research, and when you have your books you will be able to tell him whether it's worth investigating or not, better than I could.

In the meantime, Nick@Aussie and JTF, { and Mike, EB, Tolerant1 ] I'm longing to send you the rest of this stuff if you can cope? Before the 7th Nov!!??

HARRY SCHULTZ: Is this man credible or not? Can anyone tell me, please?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:38 - ID#347332)
TO colleen;
Hi colleen. Ask Yogi.I'm still waiting for his beef.His details.
His source.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:38 - ID#60253)
Check the "gold eagle site" under Red Barron ( LBMA ) .
Read everything and rethink your thoughts.

Mr. Cole:
Knowing the future direction and price of gold will
be useless for anyone who invests in paper gold! In the
near future "timing" will be nothing. What you are holding
will be everything!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:40 - ID#31855)
Our local press says that the currency crisis in Asia could not have come at a worse time for gold as the economic downturn there
will dampen demand for gold. However, it should be good for US Bonds because of lower import prices and thus, the crisis may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for the U.S. Financial Markets.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:42 - ID#57232)
All: For those of us who wish to own gold stocks in companies that might survive a possible currency Tsunami -- should we insist that we hold the actual stock certificates? I hate to bring up something that borders on paranoia at Kitco -- as we have enough of that already! Just a thought! I doubt that there are gold stock Leap certificates, and I wonder if they would be honored anyway if the entire system did melt down. I have another question --- what could the "powers that be" possibly think of that would push gold down any more? Are we going to hear that the Swiss will sell all their gold, or that the Rothschilds are giving it away? Hardly.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:46 - ID#60253)

I hope to post an answer to your thoughts in the form of
a "US$ and T-Bill" post tonight. It should give you more

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:48 - ID#23482)
Headline: Dateline 11-2-97 Immediate release

King Midas and Goldfinger announce sale of gold to purchase U.S. treasuries.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:48 - ID#23482)
Headline: Dateline 11-2-97 Immediate release

King Midas and Goldfinger announce sale of gold to purchase U.S. treasuries.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:51 - ID#287279)
Some months ago another poster ( Simple Man ) gave the same advice.
Get rid of all paper asstets, only physical possesion will do. Gold stock certificates will be useless. Are you Simple Man or connected to him?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:55 - ID#386276)
It seems a very conveinient time for Hussain to be attacking the US.
I think that Hussain would be very happy if he could rattle the nerve of the US stockmarket at this very point in time and bring the USA to its knees.
Just like the Swiss announcements these stories smell of greater things to come.

It is truly a tangled web that they weave, with the sole purpose to deceive.

Donald, JTF, Earl
If you care to view those charts that I posted earlier.
The '29 and '87 charts with the fibo series allude to different types of corrections.
One being deflationary ( 29 ) and the other occuring in a high inflation period.
The way that the fibo series, fan out, shows us that '87 was only a correction, and not at all a crash, when compared to the fibo series in '29, that plunge way down deep for many years.
This indicator shows some amazing fluctuations during the years between '29 and '87, but ever since has just been trending steeply.
If you would like to view the fluctuating patterns seen in those between years I would be happy to post.
I have the feeling that we are about to try out the '29 style bear.
Have just read R.Pretchers studies on manias and what with other news and data feel that this is to be like '29.

And I thought you were serious ( :-}}}}}

Steve - Perth
(Sun Nov 02 1997 11:58 - ID#284177)
COLLEEN: We're looking down at you....

Re: Harry Schultz. He has been around for 33 yrs, & has been in the Guinness Book of Records for 18 yrs straight as the highest paid investment adviser in the world. Probably charges too much for his newsletter!! He is only repeating info from the Intelligence Digest.
However, blind freddy could work out that something is brewing in the Middle East. The info about the VX Nerve gas is of great concern.
Go & get out the Video called "The Rock", featuring a gang of US Marines who hijack a set of VX Nerve Gas rockets, & hold San Francisco to ransom from Alcatraz Island. The spin doctors have already conditioned the people to get used to this type of thing, in addition to the nuclear suitcase bomb movie recently released by Spielberg's Dreamworks movie company.

Good night, catch you tomorrow.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:00 - ID#57232)
Colleen: Thanks for your nice post! Glad you got the Ray Tomes site! I have seen some of Harry Schultz's newsletters, and he strikes me as a fairly conservative individual, with pretty good sense. He likes mutual find investing, as I recall. Does know about international investing, too.
One investment advisor you should look at is Steven Leeb. I suscribed to his newsletter for about a year, and what I like about him is that he is equally comfortable on the upside or downside. I get nervous when the investment advisor is perpetually warm and fuzzy -- such as Louis Rukheyser, or John Dessauer. John Dessauer is well read and probably worth reading -- but that sunny dispostion non-stop is a bit too much! The market does go down sometimes -- last week he still said "buy China". Why not wait until the dust settles, at least?
Do you have Steven Leeb's book "The Agile Investor - the end of buy and hold"? I think his book is probably the best I've seen on how to invest in the ups and downs. I have also read James Earl Davidson's newsletters and books - but this is heavy reading and very "gloomish and doomish" -- he may be right but has been years too early.
Steven Leeb has been bullish until recently.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:02 - ID#284177)

INDONESIA: First dose of IMFs tough medicine begins to hurt

Italy set to renew links with Libya

US Fed toying with raising rates

Asia Currency slide bad news for Aussie exports ( includes cotton )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:04 - ID#347332)
TO Shek;
Still waiting for gold to hit $1.00 so you can buy more?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:07 - ID#287279)
No, just $299, then I buy MORE. How about you? Still waiting for $399?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:09 - ID#257114)
Mikey, your scenario sounds logical to YOU. But what if we turn up from here? You'll never get in will you? Or at what level will you finally throw the towel in and go long gold and silver. Anyone who can see through the smoke and mirrors would be buying. So what if gold goes to 300 or 280. I've seen 414 down to 308. What's another $23 or so. It's the big picture that I'm looking at. Buy gold now and again if it dips lower because a $100 swing in the price may be insignificant when compared to what it may rise to in the future. So what if I bought gold at 350. Eventually when it is much higher you will probably forget what you bought it at anyway.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:12 - ID#347332)
TO Ter ;
Deflation,inflation,currency crisis,int.rates,
Greenspan,Hussein,Asia,Year1929;1987.Who cares.Buy gold leaps

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:16 - ID#57232)
@Home - agologizing in advance for negative news -- please don't go to your foxholes!
All: I just read in our ( usually ) mindless local paper that the Russians have sold 60 diesel-powered submarines, fully equipped to those that have the money. The story line is essentially that any country used to having the Russian military umbrella, must pay for it directly. Apparently submarines like this are cheap ( realtively speaking ) . What makes me nervous is that, although these subs are basically surface vessels, missles launched from one of these can go as far as two hundred miles, according to the article. I sure hope we know where they are, and I don't just mean the USA either! These are offensive weapons -- not defensive. Does anyone know if Saddam Hussein has one? Hope not. Sure is fortunate that he has a lousy sense of timing -- always rattles his sabers when things start to go his way, and his opposition hardens. Someday some other leader will rise who is not so inept.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:21 - ID#347332)
TO Al & Shek;
If my prediction is correct,good for me ( build up my cash
reserve ) . If wrong,then good for everyone here including me.
I own gold shares.

TO Shek; No I am waiting for 270-280 or so? All gold
companies are going to drop accordingly. Good picks will
be BARRICK GOLD ( when it publishes 1/4 earnings with
MASSIVE write offs ) ,BEMA,PLACER in the near future.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:22 - ID#57232)
@Chores beckon!
Have to do my chores for the REAL BOSS -- will check in later early evening.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:25 - ID#251213)
Jin said that the people he new were buying $, Pounds, and DMarks but not gold.

The Germans are are trading Dmarks for gold. Go figure.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:28 - ID#287223)
re: worthless currency
All: I would like to point out that pre 1865 ( the soon to be worthless ) confederate money could buy land, gold, food, and whatever you wished. Those that prepared for this eventuality ( like Mr. Williams ) not only emerged unscathed but wealthy.

George Cole
(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:34 - ID#42953)
price outlook
Mikey: Given the miserable action of the gold complex of late, you could well be correct about a final move down below $300. If it happens, it will be soon -- probably within the next few weeks.

The hedging example you gave was at $384. Hedging at that price makes sense. But hedging at current price levels is something else entirely.

I suspect that financial strength and production costs will be the main determinants of which gold companies survive this bear -- not hedging policies.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:35 - ID#31868)
Mikey: Just got back. Try the following, sorry if it was my mistake:

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:44 - ID#263259)
Gold shortage?
Ray re 10:40 post: I've been backordered twice this year. The first time was retrospectively understandable, for some Credit Suisse bars, waiting for a shipment with the new packaging. The second was unanticipated, occurring last week, 14k casting grain of all things. I don't know how the gold casting grain market really works, having only bought silver in that form before, but the people I bought from have over $100million in annual sales. Why would they choose last week to run out?

XAU options
(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:51 - ID#209129)
Does anyone have XAU option suggestions? Puts only please.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:52 - ID#386276)
Go for the Gold

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:54 - ID#263259)
IMNSHO in a currency meltdown gold coins would be quickly converted at the local level to more tradable assets, either fragments, like the old Spanish silver pieces of eight or wire. Wire is still accepted in parts of Pakistan, Kurdistan and other places with traditional trading systems. There would probably be a pretty good market for touchstones, acid and hand scales, but these could be locally produced. I'd suspect too, that bullets would be a likely form of money in extreme circumstances. ( But people like the Australians, who have beaten their metaphorical swords into plowshares, will probably find that their new masters will pay them in grain for their plowing efforts, probably moldy and mixed with sand. )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:56 - ID#287223)
Question for the metallurgists: Does silver rust?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 12:58 - ID#347332)
TO tolerant1 ( earlier post ) ;
3 billion ounces going quickly? Can't eat it.Can't drink it.
Where would it disappear?

Spud Master
(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:04 - ID#273112)
i thought this was interesting....

(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:06 - ID#263259)
Savage 12:56: In a word yes. The black or brown patina you see on your silver coins is most likely silver sulfides. Silver also makes oxides, halides ( combo with sodium, potassium et cetera ) . But firescale is more likely oxides of the copper used to alloy to make sterling.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:11 - ID#31876)

BOB M. -- Your comments on the numismatics starting to "move" was very


You particularly mentioned Morgan silver dollars. I believe

it was in 1972 that our government released several tons of Carson City

Morgans. If government does not maintain bullion for paper currency

reserves those beautiful old Morgans sure make fine private currency


(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:12 - ID#431263)
Harry Schultz, Richard Russell, Arch Crawford, James Dines, Jimmy Rogers, Don McLvaney, Puetz, Oracle, et al. add 'em all up and what do you get for a peek at the next couple of years up to the year 2000: Plunging world stock markets, competitively devaluating currency crises, soaring oil and gold prices, soaring food and energy prices, a global computerized market meltdown ( Y2K ) , nuclear blackmail and terrorism on a global scale, and WW3 focused on the ME with alot of help from our phony commie allies, Russia and China! I don't know about you but it seekms to me this period will be THE MOST PERILOUS PERIOD IN HISTORY!! If the world survives all this in the next two-three years then maybe I'll get bullish on financial equity investments again. Until this period is over, however, the better part of wisdom says to sell financial instruments and buy FOOD, US SILVER COINS, GOLD and FOREIGN CURRENCIES in that order! IF even a quarter of all this stuff comes to pass ( and I believe that almost all of it will ) then this course of action not only will be a wise one ( ala Joseph in the OT ) , it may mean your economic and personal survival!
Not a small consideration in the time of trouble about to hit our planet!
PS. Don't forget you BIBLES! I have a hunch there'll be alot of folks "getting religion" once this stuff starts to hit our shores! Maybe even hepcat and company!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:12 - ID#386276)
Are Con Men Manipulating the Markets?

Recent Actions Taken by the Federal Reserve

(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:14 - ID#31868)
Mikey: Into pockets, pvc pipes, furniture legs, vaults, yards, the back forty, etc.

India has already surpassed total gold consumption of 1996 in the first 9 months of 1997.

I suggest that no matter what you think, that you purchase whatever you consider to be a core position in the metals in case you are wrong.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:15 - ID#27997)

French truckers beginning blockades:

Spud Master
(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:15 - ID#273112)
it's the human history, dummy
Nick: Glad to hear that New Zealand ( who proved they can exterminate & eunchize their indiginous peoples as well as we Yanks ) is mostly-gun free. I would remind you, however, that *NO* government in the history of womankind has every stayed benevolent toward "its" citizens. We in America had to kick the British out at *gunpoint*. Now, two hundred years later, we have our own home-grown parasitic Politcal class in Washington D.C. and we will have to do 1776 all over again. Without guns, the citizen must have recourse to right wrongs through "the law". Once again, all legal systems end up perverted & controlled by their high priesthood ( called "lawyers" here in TrustMeLand ) and you end up forking over your wealth & property while the sheriff explains in nice legal terms why you have no choice. That is why our US Constitution has Article #2: The Right To Bear Arms. It is the simple, plain observation that even good governments go bad and attempt to rob & enslave "their" people. You forget this, and you or your children are going to end up slaves. I remind you again, that even Nazi Germany had laws, judges and a legal system. Pity the Jewish people did not have guns. Of course, this can never happen in a Western culture country. Opps. Except Germany. Opps. Except Russia. Oops except the US ( Wiskey Rebllion ) .

When the animalistic part of human nature is repealed, I'll feel safe without guns. Period.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:16 - ID#222167)
Mooney: Your strategy of selling S&P calls is a good one. It has a high probability of succeeeding. However, I'm still recommending S&P puts because of the high probability that a crash has started. The DJIA should sink to somewhere between 2000 and 4000 -- soon.

So far, the December S&P puts that I have purchased during the past 7 weeks have increased in value from 2 to 7 times what I paid for them. I expect a whole lot more. With puts, time to expiration is always a problem. But, you never have to worry about margin calls.

I continue to recommend that most of your money be in gold and silver coins. Risk capital ( funds that you can afford to lose ) should be directed toward S&P put options -- or your strategy of selling S&P calls.

Here is an excerpt from an e-mail message I received yesterday: "I followed your advice and bought S&P 500 puts. I made a bundle this past week.... I tried to anticipate [the market's] fall at least twice in the past with total losses. When I read your recommendation last month, I was encouraged to try again, and lost the September puts, but had 15 contracts for November... I have been learning by doing.... I liquidated my puts at 25. I had bought them for under 2.... I enjoy the passion you bring to the subject, and I confess, I share it too." -- A Kitcoite follower.

This person has been trading in-and-out of S&P puts. It may turn out that it's a better strategy than hold until the crash is complete. But I don't believe so. I prefer to hold onto my puts until the bitter end.

So far, the August 6th all-time high in the DJIA ( and the world market's, as well ) has held. The top fooled me by taking 10 weeks to top, rather than the more mormal 6 weeks. Nonetheless, I recognized the possibility of a South Sea Bubble style crash ( a 10 week top ) -- before it was too late.

The next step in the game is to guess the length ( in time ) that the panic -phase of the crash would consume. 2 to 3 weeks is the norm. That made October 31st a good guess for the climax. It didn't work out that way.

Nonetheless, the panic-phase did begin on October 15th. Look at just about any chart of any stock market around the world. Now, the focus of my work is to identify an appropriate exit point.

The Tokyo crash in 1990 stretched out for 7 weeks from the start of the panic phase. That's always a possibility. In that case, the DJIA won't hit bottom until late-November or early-December. However, because of the structure of the leverage in stocks, I believe the crash will happen sooner than that. Next week is now the highest probability for the crash. And if it doesn't happen then, the following week will become the prime target for a crash. In any event, there's still plenty of time before the December S&P puts expire.

In know LGB takes pleasure in criticizing my work, but the only thing that matters to me is that I'm making money, and others are able to benefit as well. As long as I'm able to accomplish those goals, I'll keep posting here at Kitco.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:19 - ID#289349)
Sure bet you feel safer now that nuts will have a harder time getting guns. Guess now the nuts will have to use something "safer" than a gun. Ever see what a car can do driven down a crowded sidewalk at say 60 miles an hour? Well that's apples and oranges. You do have a good chance of surviving being shot as long as the bullet doesn't hit anything critical. Or maybe the nuts will have to use a really safe weapon like turning on the gas oven and blowing up their apartment complex. You know, there's one good thing about a nut with a gun.
If everyone had a gun, then the nut usually wouldn't be able to shoot very many people before someone shot him. Now if the nut is using a safer weapon like a car driven down the sidewalk theirs no way to stop him before he takes out 30-40 people. Feel safer now? Contrary to what you may have been told, gun laws are not aimed at crimminals and nuts.
nuts who can't get guns will use other more lethal weapons ( like cars ) and crimminals don't obey laws ( that's why they are called crimminals ) . In otherwords, the people that gun laws are aimed at are law abiding citizens. Why does the government want to disarm these people? I think you know the answer.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:23 - ID#33164)
Thanks JTF! Crooks News HOT OFF PRESS

Thank you for all that GREAT info on your post to me. The only book I've read is Rees-Mogg & James Daidson's " Great Reckoning" , and that at the end of 1992. Sort of a 1/2 hour mind exercise daily, till there was a problem in my husband's business and I had to focus on that to the exclusion of all else. But reading that book certainly made an impression, although most of it was beyond my ken at the time [and up to Kitco]. What struck me about "Great Reckoning's " scenario was the similarity between the decline of the Roman Empire and Modern Times [Dire Moments!?] Hence the rural properties and hard gold -even if I did succumb to melting some down for jewellery!

RE: FRED CROOKS- have just come back after watching local TV's "Carte Blanche". He's really caused a stir in July, Aug, Sep 97 with his prediction of a crash starting on the 17th Oct [ Dow down that day 4.4%], and in view of the local financial ''experts' scorn and derision, plus their bombastic attacks on him on radio, says he will not speak till after the 7th. He did, however, reiterate by letter that

" We are on the edge of a precipice- a crash is never a one day wonder, we are in the middle of a crash right now- this will be followed by depression- It will be WORSE by 7th NOV 97"

ALSO on the programme was Magnus Heystek, a local Financial Journalist who was at loggerheads with Crooks, and who was optimistic about the markets until it became apparent that free fall was the order of the day. HE now says: " Crook's call is an uncanny coincidence- [Crooks] may suffer from a misguided belief- it is all still unproven- IF, a year from now, Crooks proves to be right, I [ Magnus] will be the first to call him a genius"

What amazes me is that I, a learner, an ignoramus until a month ago when I first heard about Crooks, [and then found KITCO!!] was prepared to BUY his books, SUGGEST that he came up to Jhbg to give a lecture, and then, because my knowledge of these things is limited, to try to FIND OUT from wherever & experts whether or not his work was valid or not.

This the journalists and analysts obviously have NOT done. { I know first-hand that some DEFINITELY did not]

For those who dont know the basis of his technique, he works on a

"Quantum Rhythm"- Energy of pulsars and SuperNovae and their infliuence on everything- a UNIVERSAL GENE ? and says this can be measured by the Fibonacci number .618 { Forgive me if a little 'blurred' - have explained as best I can]

Over to you chaps.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:25 - ID#289349)
Does anyone know the top 10 industrial uses of silver?

Normally I wouldn't
(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:26 - ID#389281)
BUT HepCat finally has seen the light !

He wrote :

Date: Sat Nov 01 1997 18:35
I finally figured it out ( George S. Cole is completely looney ) ID#42575:

you know how sometimes crazy people can drive sane people

I guess we don't need any further discussions .........

Thanks for the honesty Hep !

(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:29 - ID#31868)
I have a couple of comments about the weapon issue that has been discussed.

In the time it takes to dial 911 in a civilized area - the response time is more than enough time to be dead by the time they get there.

When the government and police and the criminals no longer have weapons, then all weapons should be destroyed.

This will never happen.

No matter what part of the planet you on, this is a very dangerous place to live.

I was taught as a very young person that the government is nothing more then someone who has a gun. To date I have learned this to be true.

One human being murdering another is disgusting. There is a huge difference in defending one's life, and murder.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:33 - ID#338452)
All those who want Canadian Mutual Funds Info

Brand New Site :

Canadian Site for ALL Canadian Funds AND it's free !!!!

Thanks Globe and Mail Great Stuff....


(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:34 - ID#33164)
Harry Schultz -Steve-Perth and JTF
Thank you both for that info on Schultz. I shall look into it further. Kinda like that name...

Stever@Perth. Looking UP at you?? Is that what they mean here when they say "Packing for Perth?" when yet another S. African leaves? I'm still in the dark on your map- in the light last week in Cape Town!

I have this strong feeling that this Iraqi/Nerve gas issue [ are they the only ones who may have it?] is a very real danger. The Treaty of Versailles was far too punitive, and we landed up with the 2nd World War. They're pushing Saddam Hussein too far.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:49 - ID#426220)
LBMA EXPOS: PART 9 (November 3, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis Compiled by Red Baron
The Onion PARADOX peels yet another layer away from the eventual truth of the LONDON BULLION MARKETING ASSOCIATION...:

(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:52 - ID#57232)
Colleen: Say your post 13:23 I also have the "Great Reckoning" and have read most of it. I have no problem with "the what might happen" -- I just don't know when. James Earl Davidson has been bearish for a long time -- the only one longer being my dad! He still is -- he rode the gold peak all the way up to 1980, and all the way down to the present. Missed out on lots of investment opportunity.
Now, however, what is happening around the world makes one wonder -- are we heading for the paper crash this time, or is this the warmup for 1999-2000 or later? I don't know, but I am being very cautious.
Your comments about Crook and quantization are fascinating! Roy Tomes and he have alot in common, I think. Am awaiting your missives!
I think in a nutshell what all this quantization business is, is that there are many cycles in the Universe -- human and biological activity, as well as astronomical cycles. The passage of the earth through the heavens also introduces annual cycles that may be due to unusual galaxies that emit radiation that we don't understand. For example, the market January effect might have somehing realated to the Galactic center. The bottom line is that any cycles, or harmonics thereof are likely to be synchronized. Thus cycles of the planets and human cycles can coincide, as long as the wavelength of one is a multiple of the other. The analogy with the violin may be a good one -- If you play another instrument near a violin, and watch the strings very carefully, you will notice that certain notes ( not necessarily the same ones, but harmonics ) will cause those violin strings to vibrate! These resonances, as they are called, do not necessarily apply for all time -- outside factors for example in human behavior might make us more susceptible to cycle "A" one year and cycle "B" the next.
All of this in my mind does not make me any more successful at investing --- yet, but it does seen to help others. I hope to understand this better someday. Perhaps the Crook info will help!
Better get back to my chores!

George Cole
(Sun Nov 02 1997 13:57 - ID#42953)
at home
Gold price slump seen driving mine shakeup:

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:00 - ID#408152)
in sacramento
Silver: "In 1991, industrial purposes accounted for about 90 percent of U.S. silver consumption; the remaining 10 percent was used for coinage.

"As mentioned earlier, the photography film, plate, sensitized paper and photocopying machine industries comprise the largest single market for silver in the United States today. In 1991, 66 million troy ounces were used by the photographic industry, which also is the leader in reclamation and recycling of silver, primarily from waste solutions from film development.

"Because silver is a thermal and electrical conductor with high heat resistance, the electrical and electronic industries are major silver consumers. Silver electrical contacts are used in practically every on-off switch and electrical appliance. Silver also is used in computer, telephone, and aviation systems. In 1991, these industries accounted for 18.3 million ounces of the total U.S. silver consumption."

--Commodity Trading Manual, Chicago Board of Trade, 1994

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:02 - ID#257148)
All: Goodmorning

Guns, the US is barsackwards on this. Privately owned guns kill ( in approx order )
1 the owner's family
2 the owner
3 a neighbour
4 a friend
5 a good samaritan stranger
6 a crim
trouble is, Right to Bear Arms is embedded in the us constitution, and is the Damacletian Sword of internal strife, my friends, it is the gift to a fifth column seeking insurrection, it is the ultimate vulnerability of your falling empire, the grease that will speed you to anarchy. The one freedom that will deny you the others.

I mean no harm, just an outsider's viewpoint.

Oh yeah, no trouble buying precious bullion here last week, don't usually bother with coins as they attract GST, but will make some enquiries...



(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:03 - ID#347332)
TO Silver ;
Kodak films

George Cole
(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:09 - ID#42953)

Agree that physical gold positions can be taken at current prices. But gold stocks are something else entirely. If bullion drops to $280 the XAU could well plunge to the 60 area. That's a lot of downside. XAU at 60 would be one of the greatest buys ever, but would be very painful for anybody now in gold equities.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:10 - ID#316409)
@ Puetz
Finally crawled outta the woodwork Puetz? So you're making money for yourself and Kitcoites eh? UmmHhmmm, well people who play Roulette hit their number once every 64 times or so too.

If everyone had been following your advice since I've been reading it, they'd all have been broke long before the events of this past week. Well OK, their coins would still have value, just less than when they started!

I think you're making money all right...selling NEWSLETTERS! 2000 to 4000 point drop hmm? In what time frame Puetz? By the end of the year? I'll lay you 2 to 1 odds with $1,000 of my money to $500 of yours that it won't happen. Now that you lost your other bet I thought I'd give you yet one more opportunity to publicly whip old LGB and establish your true pre-eminint credibility.
What do you say Puetz? Heuvos??

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:11 - ID#31868)
Silver is also used medical solutions, one of the most important is for burn victims.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:12 - ID#222167)
In this week's Barron's, Richard Russell wrote an article ( page 26 ) stating that a Dow Theory sell-signal will occur, if the Dow Transports break below 2865. The transports are now at 3131, after making an all-time high at 3368. The DJIA would probably have to fall another 500 to 600 points for the Transports to fall below 2865. At that point, several widely-followed Dow Theory writers will be issuing sell signals.

Also, Barron's interviewed Marty Zweig ( page 30 ) . During the recent sell-off, Zweig was caught at his most heavily invested position in stocks -- 85% invested. In recent years he has been about 65% invested in stocks. Zweig expains that monetary conditions are favorable for stocks, and that the 10-day-TRIN has given a buy signal. Zweig adds, "I'm the half-empty-glass guy, talking bullishly. Isn't that weird?"

Zweig thinks the market's going higher. Before becoming bearish, Zweig expects: "There are 2 things that probably would stop this market: One would be that inflation heats up, rates go up, and the Fed tightens. We all know that story, because we've lived through it several times in the post-war period. That's an easy one, because you know what to do -- Rates go up, you start to sell. The second possibility is that earnings fall apart -- without first going through the normal cycle of the economy overheating, the Fed tightening. In other words, if earnings just fall apart because the whole world goes into some sort of recession, or deflation. That would be tricky to deal with, because we haven't had one of those situations in a long time. We had one in 1937, but that was sort of a relapse into the Great Depression. Anyway, even if that were to develop, I don't think it would happen overnight. You'll just have to stay alert to pick up the signs."

This is where I believe the successful money-managers of the past 20 years are getting trapped. We have entered into a deflationay depression, and the Keynesians are still looking for an overheated economy and higher interest rates before selling stocks.

Zweig says he's going to stay alert to deflationary trends. If 1929 serves as an example, earnings were still good when stocks crashed during October 1929. The stock market crash preceded the earnings downturn. Furthermore during 1929, economic and financial chaos overseas served as an early warning to investors on Wall Street.

In 1997, we're getting the same deflationary warnings. But the Keynesians are having a hard time believing that the stock market can go down without interest rates first rising. So far, the vast majority are ignoring the deflationary warning-signs. But they probably won't much longer. Zweig, and many others, are basically trend-followers. During the next stock market down-turn ( probably coming this week ) , they will no longer be able to push aside the deflationary warnings.

It is my guess that -- the Dow Theorist's, the Zweig's, and the chart-watcher's -- they will all be trying to sell at the same time this coming week. The panic we had on Monday, October 27th -- it was NOTHING, absolutely NOTHING-AT-ALL!!!! Wait until we see the true PANIC -- the one coming your way soon. It will be a BLOOD-BATH in the true sense of the words. People jumping out of windows -- the whole works.

The big crash has yet to come. I'm speculating as heavily as I possibly can in my S&P put options. The rest of my money is in gold and silver coins.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:13 - ID#316409)
@ SIlver
Re your question on industrial use. By far the biggest percentage is used in silver emulsion film production and processing. Secondary uses are primarily electronics and jewelry. Coinage is now a very small percentage of use. ( Commemoratives, Silver American Eagles, etc. )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:15 - ID#347332)
TO Puetz;
It takes GUTS to stick your head out like that and give time
predictions. No one here except a few give predictions.Yet
everyone wants to know market futures but will HANG you if
you're WRONG.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:16 - ID#316409)
@ Puetz, Agreement on Investments
But just to demonstrate we can agree on SOMEthing Puetz, I'm with you on Silver coins. ( Not very bullish on Gold though ) , however, for completely different reasons than you. As to stocks, I think we'll have a buy opporunity soon that will allow investors to go on to the next levels with huge profits. DOW 10,000 in 99 Puetz, DOW 20,000 by 2008.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:16 - ID#289349)
You know, anytime I end up in an arguement with someone who says that private possesion of guns should be outlawed I always ask them this as it usually exposes their hippocrosy:

You are having dinner out on the town when a gunman who is obviously mentally deranged burst into the room and orders everyone on the floor.

You do as he says ( he does have a gun ) and wait for the police to show up and save you. Meanwhile, the gunman begins to walk from table to table shooting people in the head. He's slowly getting closer to your table. You listen as each victim begs for their life before they are shot.

Suddenly there is a flash of light and you realize that everyone in the room is frozen in time except for you. Standing over you holding out a pistol is Jesus. He says "If thou does not taketh this gun then thou shall surely die. If thou does taketh this gun and defendeth thy self then thou shall surely live". With another flash of light he is gone and there on the floor an inch from your hand is the pistol. You look in the frightened eyes of your children. You hear the people at the table next to yours begin to beg for their life. What do you do?

If you are really against private possesion of guns you will do nothing as
you watch the gunman shoot your children in the head. To do otherwise would be to admit that you would rather have a gun than not have one in time of need which would expose you as the hypocrite you are.


This really works good if their children are there waiting on their parents answer.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:18 - ID#316409)
@ Mikey
Mikey it doesn't take guts to make the same old tired Gloom and Doom predictions week after week. Puetz has been so consistently wrong that his prognostications are now a total joke for any thinking investor who has followed his writings over time. Puetz makes these extreme predictions for the same reason the Enquirer sells more copies than mainstream hard news. Sensationalism sells. And make no mistake, Puetz is in the Newsletter selling biz.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:22 - ID#31868)
George Cole: Hiccup! Too much Tequila. George you are absolutely correct. I thought it clear, but it certainly was not. I should have stated clearly, physical core position.

Gold real estate is getting not only volitile but very expensive to own.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:22 - ID#33164)
JTF: Great Reckoning etc...
JTF- Yes, Rees-Mogg & Davidson may be full of doom and gloom, but that was my first 'sight' into the world of economic history/economics- it was all i 'had''. And it made sense. Being an ancient [very!] historian myself, I could relate to what might happen yet again. "Those who do not learn the lessons of yesterday etc..!" My properties have been great investments. Paid R350,000 in 1981 for one that I'm getting business rights for, and will be getting some large K's out of that one. It was originally -fortuitously- a rural property in the heart of Bryanston, and now a business node. The 45 acre plot bought last year has been interesting. I was offered one and a half times the cost some months and again a few weeks ago. Said no, as I have other plans for it. So one can relate the correct properties to ANOTHER'S comments on the value of gold. As for 'hard gold', it's been a fun thing to collect up and hide away, and I would have spent it, possibly frivolously, elsewhere. 'Played" with shares for a bit, and rid myself of them at the beginning of the year. Had tremendous luck with them, but felt uncomfortable with 'paper' assets.
Now the Lipizzaners have also been brought into my life....who knows?- maybe breeding GOLD horses?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:27 - ID#431263)
ARCH CRAWFORD on Friday mentioned that because of present disharmonies among current planetary alignments we can expect to see AT LEAST TWO MORE STOCK MARKET DOWN DAYS OF A MAGNITUDE AS GREAT AS IF NOT GREATER THAN LAST MONDAY'S! All before the middle of November! Arch has been right for a good portion of this year so disregard his warning at your own economic peril! Arch also gave favorable prognosticians for the precious metals into the middle of 1998!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:28 - ID#316409)
@ Colleen
Colleen I'm not a Gloom and Doomer as you know but that link you posted was an excellent resource. Thanks. ( Pssst, buy the DOW below 6700!! )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:29 - ID#347332)
TO tolerant1;
Ok. but what about the remaining 2.8 billion ounces?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:30 - ID#31868)
Having the free choice to own a weapon is simply that. Freedom of choice. When I hear all the people screaming about our Consitutional right to demand coined money, gold and silver, I will consider the citizenry far better versed in at least one area.

American's are getting slaughtered financially. Let's work on enforcing the laws that exist before we move into the arena wherein we consider ourselves better at framing a Consititution than the Founding Father's.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:33 - ID#347332)
TO tolerant1;
Please don't answer that one. I was just kidding.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:34 - ID#408152)
in sacramento
aurator: I think Americans have always felt that the biggest threat to our freedom and personal safety comes from government. And we can point to a long list of tyrannies that have tortured and slaughtered people by the tens of millions as proof. Undoubtedly the threat Americans pose to one another is real, but in comparison to the suffering government can inflict, we feel the constant threat of random violence is worth it -- though, God, we DO wish it were unnecessary. However, as long as we have imbeciles in this country who cream all over themselves at the mere mention of Jiang Zemin's name, or Mao's name, or Ted Kennedy's name, or the names of other such murderers, rapists, thieves and drunkards in high government office, we'll most gladly keep our guns and ammo close at hand, thank you very much! I mean no criticism of you personally, aurator -- I like you -- but this is entirely an internal matter, one for the people of the U.S. to decide.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:36 - ID#31868)
Mikey: You underestimate the millions of ounces moving around the globe. Gold gobbling is increasing, and will increase geometrically as the price moves lower.

Trust me, everybody.....but yuppie, in the market, life is grand, in for the long buying metal and alot of it.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:37 - ID#31868)
Mikey: Disregard my last post.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:38 - ID#33164)
Hello, Aurator..
Your 'Morning' / My Evening?

Strange, I always expect to see you in my mornings....yourr wise and poetic posts make a good start to my day. May the sun shine upon you..

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:38 - ID#316409)
@ Investment Research Site
Puetz's #1 research site for current investment predictions. ( thanks Ron.. )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:42 - ID#31868)
Aurator: I apologize for not stating this earlier. I look forward to your post's even when I disagree with some of what you say. I have some very strong, well thought out position's and opinion's along several Constitutional lines.

We just disagree on this one, that's all.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:44 - ID#33164)
LGB!! Aliens??
Now LGB- Hello {:-}}
I thought you were going to be nice?

I do like your sense of humour, but wish it weren't at someone else's expense. Don't you think Puetz has done a lot of research? He seems to be pretty knowledgeable.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:45 - ID#347332)
Whats LGB stand for anyway? Little Gold Balls?.
Puetz is BGB ( Big Gold Balls ) .

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:48 - ID#431263)
One more thing while I anxiously wait for the PACKER/LION game tonight, the 1.3 billion shares traded on Tuesday is a CLASSIC CASE OF STOCK DISTRIBUTION!! This means MORE DISTRIBUTION to come THIS WEEK! Once we take out last week's DOW low, the selling will truly take on CRASH-IN FACT CHARACTERISTICS! It will be FAST and FURIOUS! So fast and so furious that mutual funds may not be able to give accurate NAV's at the end of the day, fills may not be executed at all much less at the prices expected, telephones and phone lines at stock brokers offices, market-makers and mutual fund offices will be TIED-UP and UNANSWERED on a scale even greater than in 1987!! The BUSY SIGNALS will be DEAFENING! The LOSSES will be STAGGERING! And the MARGIN CALLS will be BANRUPTING! The CRISIS IN CONFIDENCE WILL PARALYZE MARKETS ACROSS THE GLOBE! AND THEN THE FED WILL COME! ONLY IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO STEM THE TIDE! THE BEAR HAS ARRIVED, MEIN FREUNDS! AND ITS APPETITE FOR ALL DIPSTERS WILL BE A SIGHT TO BEHOLD WITH FEAR AND TERROR! The YELLOW PERIL will NOT be GOLD, but JAPANES BANKS!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:51 - ID#287223)
Steve Puetz: ( 1 ) Thanks. ( 2 ) When would you recommend cashing out of November S&P puts ??? ( expire 11/21 )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:55 - ID#316409)
@ Mikey
Don't get LGB started Mikey! The wrath of LGB is a fearsome thing. Now as to having balls & all. Since you're obviously a young tadpole, let me splain something to you. In the early 1980's, progosticators like Puetz were everwhere. When the DOW was at 777, ONE TENTH where it is today, they were telling us that further big crash was coming and we should be buying Gold hand over fist. SInce then, the people who listened to those "Ballsy" Newsletter Snake Oil salesmen, have lost around 50% on their Gold, 900% in lost gains on the DOW, and 400 to 500% in the purchasing power of whatever Gold they did buy.

Meanwhile, the folks who listened to the boring, conventional analysts who told then to buy stocks are wealthy today. Go ahead and follow Puetz's advice Mikey. He's "Ballsy" all right. It does take balls to sell swamp land in Florida and Ice Cubes to Eskimos. But you sound like a perfect Stooge for him Mikey, so sign up for his newsletter today!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:55 - ID#31868)
I really wish our leader's and populace thought and acted out the following on a daily basis.

Where there is no dream, the people perish. We must collectively provide hope, and challenge the human spirit. Life is effort, when any individual no longer believes this they begin to wither.

Individuals that confront challenges, disabilities and disadvantages awaken each day with a sense of worth, becoming more valuable to themselves and society as a whole.

I do not pretend to be a master of the issues, nor do I believe that I alone have the collective wisdom and foresight to make responsible decisions that will effect our lives as well as generations of the unborn yet to come. We all need to actively participate in the decisions pertaining to the world we live in and share.

Now is the time to act, to help reshape common thought and let peace, tranquillity, wisdom and spirituality guide all of us as we enter an era when humankind can truly appreciate the integrity of creation.

The entire range of inter-cultural and international affairs is at an unprecedented point in human history. There is no question that as we hurtle towards the dawn of the 21st century a miraculous window of opportunity is opening. A new age renaissance, wherein all citizens of the world will come to truly understand their inter-dependence upon one another.

Business as usual is no longer the standard fare on the global plate, new methods, a new form of understanding and a true desire to communicate are quickly altering the self-imposed myths that have held back humanity from moving forward into the sun lit river known as the future.

Instead of acting like children that shy away from the dark, let us move together, step by step, hand in hand, into a world which is illuminated by sensitivity, intellect and compassion. Let the global populace embrace a universal sense of community through the individual gift that each member of humanity brings into the world.

We must strive for a world where there is freedom to access and access to freedom. A world in which people realize that communication and teamwork are essential for all of us to live in community.

We have the tools, let each of us learn how to put them to work.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 14:59 - ID#408152)
in sacramento
Puetz: " . . . LGB takes pleasure in criticizing my work, but the only thing that matters to me is that I'm making money, and others are able to benefit as well. As long as I'm able to accomplish those goals, I'll keep posting here at Kitco." ------ Steve, I hope you'll keep posting here no matter what!

LGB: Shame on you! You're attacking a visionary, and one who was eerily close to prognosticating the exact date of a crash. Besides, your insistence that the market will keep going up near term simply because it has been going up in the recent past is no less an attempt to see into an unknowable future, and one, I believe, with considerably less reason and thought underlying it than Steve Puetz's. Now, get out there and lay in an S&P put or two. On the side. You don't have to tell us. You might be pleasantly surprised at the result!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:02 - ID#316409)
@ Colleen
Hi Colleen. Yes I'm being nice to you aren't I?? I'm merciless with Puetz but I do agree he has plenty of market research and knowledge behind him. Now if he would only put it to use.... It's not Puetz himself I have a problem with Colleen. I think he's a good guy at heart and all. Itr's just that, as I've mentioned a few million times here, we've been hearing these crash predictions for 10 years now and the folks who follow such Gloom and Doom analysis will simply NEVER recover financially from those who follow more conventional analysis. Even IF the vaunted "crash" comes, the Gloom and Doomers will be so far behind in their investments from the market investors, that they will have been hurt for life.

I followed some "Advisors" quite similar to Puetz in the late 70's and learned my lesson. See Puetz never even has to change his Newsletter content. Just slap new dates on it and add/delete a few words and it's EXACTLY the same message we've been hearing from G & D analysts for 15 years! ( To their utter and total discredit )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:03 - ID#263259)
Aurator 14:02 Your unsubstantiated assertion is evidence only for your own prejudice.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:04 - ID#258129)
Fear chart

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:07 - ID#224149)
Anybody@Can @Go@To@Jail
Once upon a time Kitco was a gold page for the purpose of investors assimilating different ideas to the probable direction of Gold prices .Now this page has turned into shouting matches between idiots and egos find no worthwhile information here anymore just personality clashes.Bart please clean up the garage and all the junk that litters your driveway.May I suggest a limit to posts per day with I.D. as many other groups use.Anyone should have the right to post about Gold using Astrology ,Tea leaves ,Taro cards ,Animal entrails ,Charts ,News ,or just opinion as many have and will.As to the so called Gods of Kitco greed has no boundaries in human nature.The Mob has disappeared from the slums and street corners of society and now reside on Wall Street,Bay Street ,Chicago Mercantile and where ever huge amounts of money flow.The bees know where to find honey.Many brokers are on DEATH WATCH if they don't perform.If the markets continue to fall you may here of many strange deaths at brokerage firms around the world .Gold the less manipulated of all investments is in a period of accumulation for a future "Mass media blitz similar to the late 70's.Anyone who believes the markets are legitimate have more strength than a mule.Happy Trails.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:07 - ID#225283)
Whats is next

very busy weekend time to read earlier posts so I may be restating the obvious but here goes:

Monday Shall bring bad banking news worldwide... starting with Asia... here come the bank runs and holidays I warned of several days ago!
US bank situatuation is going from bad to terrible...OTS ( offie of thrift supervision ) will have its hands full....Big banks former big profits from overseas will have evaporated and turned to big loses and liabilities...small to midsized regional banks that have experienced the best returns and growth rates ever will be taken over ( all very hush hush ) because the can no longer experience the type of returns they have become accustom to operating beyond means will cause insolventcy ....and are unable to reposition themself in the market or become a target for acquisition.......

In search of higher margins/yields many US banks have been playing with DERIVATIVES!!!!! THese derivative positions will begin to unravel atthe same time foriegn loans and operations go from profit centers to nightmares.

The market should experience another intervention in the form manipulating a dead black cat bounce so some of the big boys can unwind their positions while suckering in a few more wage slave hoards. Your humble and odbidient servant.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:08 - ID#316409)
@ Ron
But Ron, I have no agenda or ax to grind. No newsletters to sell. All I care about is making my investment pile grow bigger. There's a hell of a LOT of rationale for a growing DOW and very little for a genuine crash. Puetze's predictions fail miserably even when you look at last weeks events. Eeveryone was looking for a correction, so his call was pretty weak when you consider how many times he'd called for a crash during the Full Moon, Eclispes, and such. ANd then he told us that by Friday the all out meltdown would occur due to late margin calls. Where is it??

See I'd buy PUTS if I thought there was a reasobale chance I could make some good gains. Right now you'd be just as well off buying calls. The market may not move up OR down in any appreciable amount for quite awhile. But given the state of our economic fundamentals, the DOW is going nowhere but UP in the Mid/long term.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:10 - ID#347332)
TO LGB ( Re:14:16 )
You don't believe the markets are inflated enough?
"DOW 10,000 in 99 Puetz, DOW 20,000 by 2008."
You got guts too then. Ok, my apology.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:10 - ID#316409)
@ Poorboys
Yet one more Moron telling Bart how to run his site and make it into what "Poorboys" wants. Go post on those registration sites you love so much, or better yet, develop your own.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:13 - ID#316409)
Prediction for coming week
Specific predictions for this coming week. The oversold ASian markets will begin to recover, this will strengthen the U.S. markets which will end the week with a gain. Gold will languish. Gloom and Doomers wiull post all kinds of conspiracy theories on Kitco as to why the markets didn't REALLY strengthen but instead were manipulated by all the world financier conspirators with their bail out plans and secret schemes.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:16 - ID#222167)
Savage: I don't know what strike price you have on your November put options. But I would be inclined to hold them through the end of this week. I believe before this week's over, the DJIA will break down below support in the 6900 to 7100 area. Then a second, bigger collapse will start. Greater than the one a week ago. The price of put options should then soar.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:17 - ID#316409)
@ Puetz
With that last post of yours Puetz, I gotta hand it to ya. AS Mikey said, you do indeed have Balls. DOW won't be going anywhere but sideways or up this week.

George Cole
(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:18 - ID#42953)
paradigm shift
Puetz: Good point about most stock market strategists unwilling to admit that stocks can go down BIG TIME unless interest rates go up. That is Elaine Gazarelli's position. This is to be expected. Very few are able to detect fundamental paradigm shifts until it is in their face, so to speak.

I'm still not as bearish as you, but am quite bearish nonetheless. To me this is starting to resemble Japan 1990 more than U.S 1929. Not sure what will happen this week beyond a probable Monday morning rally. But the trend has changed from up to down.

Lan Man
(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:23 - ID#31766)
@Thoughts on Gold Coins...
The numismatic market hit bottom several months ago. After gold hit $416. and headed down many "investors" sold off and that presented a great buying opportunity to collectors as well as a few investors that were waiting for this to happen. As others have said, good rare coins ( low pops ) are imposible to find. The coins that I have seen for the past 6 months are downright lousy compared to what was available before. This train HAS ALREADY left the station!

The only ones that I have seen and that are in good condition and still available to all are the MS-65 and MS-66 Wells Fargo Gold $20 coins. Heck just try to find a good low pop MS-63 $2 1/2 or $5 dollar Indian - good luck!

I will be visiting CNI ( Calif Numismatics ) on Monday and will report back on their supply of bullion coins. I KNOW the supply situation for generics. Now is the time to average in on bullion coins, and with Platinums recent retreat, good time to pick up a few PAE's. Oh, by the way collectors don't sell the sets that they have when prices only double...

Tried to download a pic of the PAE but Kitco's FTP site is not responding to me, will try later - for those that have not yet seen one. ( The eagle looks more like a Calif. Condor to me )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:25 - ID#222167)
LGB: You talk about market newsletter writers as if they are scum. Myself, I've learned a great deal from other newsletter writers. If it weren't for other writers, I still might believe in all that Keynesian economic hog-wash I was taugh all through high-school and college.

Unfortunately, judging from your writings, you still believe ( like the Keynesians ) that Uncle Sam and the Fed can just swosh in, inject credit-liquidity into our financial system, and save the markets, and even push them higher. This monstrous myth is widely believed today. But it's flat out wrong. Credit has it's limits, even for the US Government. I explain all of this in my book, Total Collapse -- a collapse that is now in its infancy.

LGB, I hazard to say, that even you might learn some things by reading my book. You might be surprised at the tought-provoking arguements I present in the book.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:29 - ID#33164)
Thanks and Goodnight
Have to catch the 'Angel Train" - Goodnight all. Thank you for your great posts, urls etc. Yes, LGB, you ARE nice to me, and I thank you.

Can anyone help with decent e-mail,please. I fear that I am sending TWICE!! and really feel bad about it. I have IExplorer. Is there a better
one. - [will read posts tomorrow morning]

Looks like a heavy week ahead- Jhbg Sunday papers Business Times 'Money' gives 10 reasons 'why you, too, should be holding firm" i.e. "What comes down must eventually go up again"

Then, tonight MNET TV had a snippet on Crooks. Guess the JSE will AGAIN have to contend with the huge drop due to the Freddy Factor this week. People who heeded his words at end September have scored, and are spreading the news over Talk-in radio.

Goodnight. Good luck.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:33 - ID#347447)
a few
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: You're proably off watching the football game. I hope your team gets some homeruns. re- your 14:28 and Arch Crawford, perhaps he is looking at Tuesday and Wednesday ( more like late Tues, actually ) when transiting Mercury opposes NYSE Sun. This is not a heavyweight transit, but just the same it could be calling out unusual doings regarding activity, and, as most astrologers will concur, communications. POORBOYS: Your support of the unorthodox is always appreciated in these quarters. As for entrails, however, Pepi is the only possible sacrificial possibility, and he's been such a good dog lately that I think I would miss him too much.

Spud Master
(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:33 - ID#288154)
All: Goodmorning

Guns, the US is barsackwards on this. causes of US deaths ( in approx order )
1 Alcohol
2 Cigarettes
3 Fatty Food diets
4 Autmobile Accidents
5 Disease
6 Guns
7 Vacations in Park Fort Marcy
trouble is, people in favor of gun control are just that - they DON'T GIVE A DAMN about saving lives. If they were they would concetrate their efforts on eliminating the above in order of cause-of-death. But they don't. They don't because it's "Fashionable" to be against guns. It's not fashionable to tell people that their excessive drinking, smoking, fat-filled crap fast food, lack of exercise and unsafe life-style choices ( snicker - that's the politically correct version ) cause the majority of deaths in America and world-wide. Intestinal strife, my friends, it is the gift to a fifth colonic seeking insurrection, it is the ultimate vulnerability of your falling empire, the grease that will speed you to cardiovascular disease. The dietary freedoms that will deny you the others.

I mean no harm, just an outsider's viewpoint.

Lan Man
(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:36 - ID#31766)
@It Worked
Here is a pic of the Platinum American Eagle. Too bad they didn't use the pic of Miss Liberty from the bookcover of "Unintended Consequences"...

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:43 - ID#347447)
LAN MAN: Thanks for the warning. That Liberty head has to be one of the worst I've seen. With all the talent in this world, why in hell did they turn out a glum clunker like that? A raw natural Alaskan placer gold nugget is more beautiful than that coin. As for the imaginative!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:43 - ID#346256)
LGB, your stupid ravings of how you can predict the market is a insult
to anyone with an IQ over 60, ( yours perhaps ) , and that some of these people even bother to reply to your disoriented ramblings is their own fault.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 15:48 - ID#224149)
LGB-Moron "A" Obviously you took it upon yourself in reflection from my last post that you are an idiot .If that is the case you are not correct.I find you to be a crossbreed between a clothes-horse and bo-hunk.Happy Trails

(Sun Nov 02 1997 16:04 - ID#289384)
To Farmer: Re: Yours of Saturday November 1 @ 00:07.

To answer your question"What will we eat and where will we lay our heads?"
Access this site and browse a little and the answers may be forthcoming.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 16:04 - ID#408152)
in sacramento
LGB: Many academic statisticians and economists tell us that the market is a random walk. And it is. That means that there are no predictive variables that will tell you what the Dow, for instance, will do tomorrow. The moon and the stars can't tell you, and neither can the fact -- even if it WERE a fact -- that the Dow shot up 100 points each and every day for the last 100 years in a row. These things tell you absolutely nothing about tomorrow. And all the so-called "fundamental facts" and technical razzle dazzle that passes for analysis in the newsletters can't tell you anything either.

The fact is the future is completely unpredictable and, IMVHO, your belief that the fundamentals tell us that the Dow is going up mid- and long-term is EVERY BIT as irrational as another person's belief in numerology, or astrology, or any other form of mysticism. Fundamentals can't tell us anything, in part, because the fundamentals that supposedly "drive" the market are themselves subject to sudden, unpredictable random forces.

So don't tell us that there is a "hell of a LOT of rationale for a growing DOW." It's all nonsense.

Now don't get mad at me, LGB. I like you a lot. You always crack me up and make me see the silly side of *some* arguments. But please, Steve and other people here are doing nothing that you yourself aren't doing -- trying to figure out what'll happen tomorrow. The fact that some folks sell newsletters strikes me as irrelevant ( no one's too pushy in pushing their newsletter, are they? ) . Go scream at L. Ruykeyser, fer chrissakes!

Now, lighten up! We're all trying to do the undoable -- figure out what tomorrow will bring. It's fun -- if you let it be -- but hopeless. Luv 'ya, man!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 16:17 - ID#346256)
Everytime the price of gold pops up the least little bit, a lot of the
smaller mining companiie rush out of their holes like a trap door spider
to sell forward, driving gold prices right back down. This is a slap in the face to their shareholders who have invested not only their money,
but their faith in that mining company.
This has been brought to my attention so much that I intend to personally
call the mining companiies I now hold, first thing Monday morning, and
those who admit to recent forward sales, I intend to sell them as fast
as I can speed dial my broker.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 16:29 - ID#194311)
nothing like gold under your bed
Rush on closed Indonesian banks
JAKARTA, Nov 2 ( AFP ) - A government decision to close down 16
ailing Indonesian banks sparked a rush by depositors on the banks
and cash machines in a vain bid to withdraw their money, reports
said Sunday.
Long queues formed at several branches of banks and outside
automatic teller machines here and in Bandung, West Java, shortly
after the government announced the closing of 16 banks on Saturday,
the Bandung-based Pikiran Rakyat daily said.
Some depositors withdrew their funds from at least one bank
branch in West Jakarta, the daily said.
Others remained in line at cash machines even though none of the
machines were working and tight security was in place, the daily
"I want to try it first," a 40-year-old housewife queuing in
front of a teller machine of Bank Harapan Santosa in downtown
Bandung, told the daily.
The Indonesian authorities on Saturday shut down the 16 troubled
banks as part of the country's drive to improve the country's
banking system.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 16:29 - ID#224149)
Mike Sheller-Give Pepi my apologies but tell her not to hang out with any "Long Dow Sheep".My cat Sheba likes to eat ( L ) atescent ( G ) izzard ( B ) adgers.Happy Trails

(Sun Nov 02 1997 16:43 - ID#339273)
Too right!!!!!!!!!

to the newcomers
(Sun Nov 02 1997 16:46 - ID#374108)
that you not waste money listening to Mooney

It is a given that Stephen Mooney will always be on the right side
of the market post fact. In truth, Stephen Mooney has been
advocating SINCE LAST SEPTEMBER to buy the physical
metal, at a time when gold was $380/ounce. There has never
been one visitor to the site, NOT ONE, who has been discouraged
from buying the physical metal by Stephen Mooney. Again,
the level of resignation at this site is such that a drop from $380
to $310 is seen as "insignificant". People who live in the real
world know better. The people who post that it doesn't matter
what the price of gold is either have no gold or have no
intention of ever selling the gold they have. For the record,
Stephen Mooney has been advocating buying Flag stock
since September of last year, at a time when it was 60 cents/share
( a good call at that time, provided he then advocated selling it,
which he did not ) , and still advocated buying it when it rose
temporarily to $1.30/share ( "this will be your last chance to get
in at $1.00 U.S." was his frantic pitch ) and still advocated buying
it all the way down ( and it went a long way down - see the 52-week
low if you need actual figures ) . A good indication of how Stephen
Mooney reacts if his predictions turn out to be wrong ( for example,
if his predictions about the bottom in gold turn out to be wrong ) can
be realized by looking at the Flag debacle. When the bet which
he held out to me and he set the conditions for turned out to be
a losing bet, he disappeared from the site, and has yet to acknowledge,
after repeated attempts, that he was incorrect. He has simply
abandoned any discussions of Flag and has never offered an apology
to those investors he took for a ride with empty promises of riches
and picnics and book chapters. I stated back in December of last
year, after I was repeatly attacked for pointing out that Flag was
a rocket ship to nowhere, that I never owned any shares in Flag
nor would I ever own any shares in Flag, and that I felt bad for
people who invested in the scam because soon enough the
tent would be folded up and the hucksters would disappear.
What did I tell you back then? What has happened since then?
I'm sure some misguided Flag supporter will jump to the defense
and say "Just wait. Drilling is just around the corner." Come on.
In one year this investment has gone nowhere, and if I got in
today I would have as much chance as someone who got in
one year ago to share in the ( nonexistant ) riches soon to come.
Again, I asked at that time, "What time limit do we set on
predictions coming true?" And there was no answer. If it is
a prediction we wish to come true, no matter how impossible,
there is no time limit. Mooney and Poops and Cole will be right
some day, and I hope we are all still alive to share in their glory.
But golly, 18 years is a generation, from baby shoes to graduation,
and I'm not going to wait 18 years for Flag to pop from 60 cents
to $1.60 or gold to go from $310 to $510 when other investments return 5 times that amount in that period and my
only social interaction is with people who posit conspiracies
for everything from the sun rising ( illusion produced by Jewish bloc
and mirrors on Hubble telescope ) to butter melting when you
leave it on the counter ( more mainstream press/talking heads
lies in collaboration with Soviet-controlled dairy industry ) .

(Sun Nov 02 1997 16:46 - ID#197328)

My vote is with Mr. Puetz. Thank you, Steve.

Tolerant1: I always look forward to your comments.

Bart: I've got probably 300+ sites bookmarked. Kitco gets 99% of my attention. Thank you.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 16:48 - ID#251213)
The index to watch to night is the oz mining index .this index opens in little over an hour

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 02 1997 16:53 - ID#347447)
felis pardis
POORBOYS: In which case your cat is in for a case of severe indigestion. BTW, Pepi is a boy.
MURRAY: Small mines selling forward is like small minds unable to look forward. I most heartily agree. It is no secret on this site that I am on the board of a small public natural resource company whose strategy it is to acquire as many claims, and options on claims, on gold & silver properties as possible. Our Alaskan mines are ready to develop for placer gold, but the profits are intended for more property at this time. Gold and silver claims are going for so little now that many are simply being ignored or turned back to the original discoverers, or their families. It is the classic moment for accumulation of in-ground assets, especially those deemed "uneconomical" by the big miners. These properties will be solid gold when the tide turns down the road. I agree wholeheartedly that miners should be in an accumulative mode right now, and should be building inventory with every penny they have at their disposal.

The Major
(Sun Nov 02 1997 17:01 - ID#372425)
@Reality 101
Ron:I couldn't agree with you more.Although the constantly " overwatched"
almighty DOW is a fascinating beast,it's impact on the metals is clearly
overstated if we are to take recent actions and reactions into account.It
appears the continual banter here on " who is/was right or wrong " in
projecting the stock market is deviating increasingly from what many may
consider focused discussion regarding this board's intended purpose.I
doubt anyone wants censorship,but reasonable direction is desirable.

I made a simple projection about a month ago that suggested a 10% to 20%
" correction " and not a " crash " was a likely scenario.If I was right
or wrong didn't matter terribly,but having also stated I was holding a
" major " cash position proved to be the correct decision for MY style
of investing.I made some money,but more importantly,I didn't loose money.

I would like to see this forum's focus more directed towards the MANY
MANY MANY considerations that impact the metal's prices,and less on the
almightly DOW and where it will be tomorrow,next week,or next year.It is
only one variable,and not the most significant.My 2 pennies worth.

The Major
(Sun Nov 02 1997 17:01 - ID#372425)
@Reality 101
Ron:I couldn't agree with you more.Although the constantly " overwatched"
almighty DOW is a fascinating beast,it's impact on the metals is clearly
overstated if we are to take recent actions and reactions into account.It
appears the continual banter here on " who is/was right or wrong " in
projecting the stock market is deviating increasingly from what many may
consider focused discussion regarding this board's intended purpose.I
doubt anyone wants censorship,but reasonable direction is desirable.

I made a simple projection about a month ago that suggested a 10% to 20%
" correction " and not a " crash " was a likely scenario.If I was right
or wrong didn't matter terribly,but having also stated I was holding a
" major " cash position proved to be the correct decision for MY style
of investing.I made some money,but more importantly,I didn't loose money.

I would like to see this forum's focus more directed towards the MANY
MANY MANY considerations that impact the metal's prices,and less on the
almightly DOW and where it will be tomorrow,next week,or next year.It is
only one variable,and not the most significant.My 2 pennies worth.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 17:12 - ID#348169)
Puetz - Thanks for your reply at 13:16 ( to my query from late last evening ) . I guess it was just over two months ago that I first sugested this alternate strategy for cashing in on a crash. It IS only for those with conviction AND deep pockets, however, I believe that it could increase ones profit potential ENORMOUSLY compared to just buying out and out puts. Take Friday's closing quotes for an example. Someone buying a 925 strike Dec. put would have to plunk down 38 points ( $19,000. ) If the market plunges to 800 that purchaser could cash in for a net profit of $43,500. If, however, someone were to short the Dec. S+P outright ( 924 on fri. close ) and simultaneously sell a 925 call for 37 points ( $18,500. ) , that participant would have a net profit of approximately $80,500. by the time that 800 was reached. The advantage of your system is, as you have stated, no possible margin calls. The disadvantage is the large premium paid out and the time decay factor working against you on the put. The advantage of my system ( for those totally convinced and committed ) is much larger profit potential and also the fact that a move in the wrong direction is somewhat cushioned due to the large premium collected, and by the time decay factor of the call option. The disadvantage is that a strong move in the wrong direction would be very costly. It is for this reason that I would probably not sell the at the money call but one about 35 points over the market. For instance the Dec. 960 which would allow one to collect a premium of about $9,500. ( as of Fridays close ) .

George Cole
(Sun Nov 02 1997 17:18 - ID#42953)
Gold Industry Restructuring Needed
Poorboys: The accumulation phase for gold and gold stocks is getting close, but unfortunately is not here yet. Stocks under accumulation DO NOT generally make new lows as many gold issues have been doing of late. Once we see a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows for bullion and the gold stock indexes -- that will be the time to buy aggressively and with confidence.

Still expect the bottom will be made shortly even if well below current levels. But that probably will be followed by a period of base building rather than an immediate skyrocket. All the better! This will force the industry to consolidate, slash costs, and close unprofitable mines. That, in turn, will set the stage for a truly staggering move when gold finally does take off. I estimate that if gold jumped to $500 under the current industry structure, the XAU might go to 250. But if we go to $500 after a radical restructuring the XAU might reach 350-400. And if one can get a decent position at XAU 60-70 -- you are set for life.

The Major
(Sun Nov 02 1997 17:30 - ID#372425)
To GSC:Always appreciate your comments here.As a lurker more than an
informed contributor like many,I would like to know the following:

If the markets are in a bearish mood,and other variables cause the
gold price to increase,are you saying gold stocks will still perform
as well as you predict?Thanks

(Sun Nov 02 1997 17:31 - ID#30116)
IDT -- On your dividend question; ( 1 ) YES, ( 2 ) No.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 17:35 - ID#228235)
my hero
It is not the critic who counts, nor the man who points out how the strong man stumbles of where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes up short again and again; who knows great enthusiasms, the devotions, and spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement; and who at worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly so that his place will never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither defeat nor victory.

- Theodore Roosevelt

(Sun Nov 02 1997 17:42 - ID#348169)
To ALL - And especially any newcomers who are not aware of the ceaseless efforts of John Hepcat to constantly disrupt and harass many of the people on this site that he has a strange affinity to.
The post at 16:46 was a typical example of Hepcat's disruptions, distortions and outright lies. When Gold was was heading for $390. and then $380. I made many posts agreeing with others here who believed that if certain support levels were broken that we would be going lower. I consistantly said that I am long term bullish and hopefull but that my particular slant on the situation was that the chart still looked sick. I even posted from time to time that a major commodity broker ( Friedberg's ) here in Toronto was still bearish on Gold ( even though they ARE long term bullsh ) . I continued to state that the chart looked sick even when everyone here ( nearly everone ) was jumping up and down that the final bottom had been put in at $340. I have even said it lately and I will say it again. The long term gold chart STILL LOOKS SICK. However, this does not change my statement of last night that NOW IS THE TIME TO START ACCUMULATING THE PHYSICAL. Use dollar cost averaging by buying a little each month, ( whatever is comfortable for you ) , buying half Silver, half Gold.

Hepcat - Its getting dark outside and I can here the other Tabby's calling for you to go out and play.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 17:46 - ID#226229)
I'm a lurker come in from the cold - as for the S&P, don't forget that at the end of trading on Friday, 31 Oct., the multiplier was changed by the CME from $500 to $250. Nothing to do w/ this weeks events - it's been in the works for several months. On Monday a.m. you will have twice as many S&P positions as you thought you had - &, yeah, you'll be charged the additional commissions.
cheers - pinax

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 02 1997 17:50 - ID#347447)
aaahhhh yesss
EVERYMAN: Thanks for describing me. THE MAJOR: ( George, let me field this one ) The gold stocks rose, along with rising bullion, in the wonderful 1972-80 secular gold bull epic, even while the general stock market collapsed. If conditions are such that general industry stocks must decline, while gold bullion as an asset rises, then the gold shares will participate in that rise, generally leaving everything else behind. YES, under circumstances where the overall stock market declines, and bullion rises, gold stocks will do very well. ( Thanks for your forebearance George )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 17:58 - ID#428142)

Monday, November 3, 1997

Soeharto urges calm as banks are shut

By LOUISE WILLIAMS, Herald Correspondent in Jakarta

The Soeharto Government has urged the public not to panic at the opening of
business today after announcing the immediate liquidation of 16 non-performing
Indonesian banks under an international economic rescue package worth up to
$US40 billion ( $57 billion ) .

The Government revoked the licences of the 16 private banks over the weekend,
meaning that all branches will be unable to open today following the announcement
by the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) of the bailout package for Indonesia, the
world's second-largest.

The largest ever rescue effort, worth about $US50 billion, was put together for
Mexico in 1995.

Indonesia's State Secretary, Mr Moerdiono, said police would be on alert for
"possible mass panic" as frustrated depositors attempted to withdraw their money
from the closed banks, or a "run" on other banks reflecting public fears about the
banking sector.

Local radio stations reported that immigration officials had been ordered to prevent
the owners, shareholders and managers of the liquidated banks from leaving the

Mr Moerdiono announced that a fund would be established to compensate small
depositors up to a maximum of 20 million rupiah ( about $7,900 ) .

Early on Saturday morning, the IMF announced in Washington that it would
provide $US10 billion, that the World Bank would put up $US4.5 billion and the
Asian Development Bank $US3.5 billion to help restore confidence in Indonesia's
battered economy.

The United States Government also announced a $US3 billion contribution,
adding to an initial $US5 billion promised by both Singapore and Japan, as well as
$US1 billion each from Australia and Malaysia.

Singapore has said that another $US5 billion is available and both Hong Kong and
China have offered help but have not specified an amount.

The IMF announced a $US17.2 billion loan package for Thailand in July after the
collapse of the Thai baht triggered the dramatic slide in regional currencies and

The massive cash injection is linked to a three-year economic reform package for
the Indonesian economy that includes a shake-out in the financial sector, which has
long been burdened by an oversupply of under-capitalised banks, an end to some
key monopolies and an austerity program to reduce government spending.

The announcement of the bank liquidations was the first step in a program of
reforms demanded by contributors to the package.

"Even the US, which didn't lift a finger to help Thailand in its financial crisis, has
come into this package," said a political analyst, Dewi Fortuna Anwar. "I think it is
a recognition that within South-East Asia Indonesia is as important as China and if
there is social and economic turmoil in Indonesia the whole region is affected."

The banking liquidations touch on one of the most sensitive issues in the
Indonesian economy - the distortion of access to funds and markets in favour of
the political elite. Most of the liquidated banks are small, non-performers which
have attracted depositors with promises of high interest and other incentives.

However, the list includes Bank Industri, controlled by Mr Hashim
Djojohadikusumo, the brother of Indonesia's powerful special forces commander,
General Prabowo Subianto, who is also President Soeharto's son-in-law. Also to
go is Bank Andromeda, controlled by the timber baron Mr Prayogo Pangestu.
Bank Andromeda was formerly part-owned by President Soeharto's son Mr
Bambang Trihatmodjo, who disposed of his share before the liquidations were

The largest bank, Bank Pacific, with about 25O branches, was controlled by a
close ally of President Soeharto, Mr Ibnu Sutowo.

The Central Bank Governor, Mr Soedradjad Djiwandono, said: "These banks are
insolvent to the point of endangering their continuity, disturbing the overall
banking system and harming the public interests."

(Sun Nov 02 1997 17:59 - ID#222167)
The Major: I believe the future course of the gold and silver markets are intrincantly tied to the direction of the US stock and bond markets. That's why I focus so much on stocks. Once the stock market crashes, investors will seek an alternative to financial paper.

Presently, scared investors are running in US Treasury Bonds. That's akin to jumping out of the fire and into the frying pan. The US Treasury has serious funding problems ahead. The real deficit is presently running at about $200 billion annually. Within a year or two of the coming stock market crash, the deficit will zoom toward the $1 trillion range. Uncle Sam will be broke. Treasury Bonds will be dumped. Gold and silver will once again be adored -- as money.

Right now, the US stock market is center-stage in this devoloping crisis. That's why I focus on it so much. However, I hope I never deflect from the attention that gold and silver deserve. They are great buys right now.

to the newcomers
(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:00 - ID#374108)
lest they lose money listening to Mooney
Stephen Mooney always accuses me of distortions and lies, yet
I never accuse Stephen Mooney of distorting what I say.


Because I have been very clear. Last year, I said gold to $350,
then $325.
In June, I said that a Benelux nation was going to announce
CB gold sales. The next day, the Belgium CB announced
gold sales.
In July, I said gold at $325 on 7/29/97. It closed at $325.80 on
In September, I said gold at $310 on or before 10/23/97.
It closed at $310 on 10/24/97.

Stephen cannot distort what I said on gold. Stephen can only wish
he said what I did on gold. Instead, Stephen comes down clearly on
both sides, and then post fact selectively brings up those posts that
paint him as a genius.
When it is pointed out that gold bears have been correct on this
site for the past year and that Stephen by definition cannot be a gold bear if he is telling people from $380 on to "average down, average down", he complains that other people ( including him ) were saying that gold was not a good investment. Yet his attempts to discredit me find no credence. Why did he leave the site for two months? Was he perhaps bothered that his attempt to monopolize the discussion and his constant need to place himself in the correct camp after the fact were not earning him the adulation he desired?

His inability to say anything about Flag, his attempt to simply wish it away, has become laughable. No doubt he can also find a post where he
told people that if things started looking bad, he would suddenly lose
his voice.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:04 - ID#224149)
Mike Sheller-See if I can get this right!Sorry Pepi meet Sheba the gal.Boy Meets Girl..On a serious note of cycles ( Damn I know LGB is waiting in the wings ) ( P ) luto the planet of death and regeneration is in Sagittarius opposite Gemini ruler of U.S.A.We are now in a mercury cycle ( Computers,communications ) and about to meet The Great Sun Cycle.Do you think this can be met peacefully with no war to bring in the great generation of peace?Or will man with the cross of greed on his forehead destroy all that is sacred for all brothers. P.S.To Plato the entire universe consisted of two opposing principles-Strife and Love.Plato argued that the value of astrology was that it enabled us to harmonize with these universal rhythms and so help the universe balance itself,and therefore delay the inevitable increase of strife over love.Happy Trails

(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:05 - ID#222167)
The Major: An additional point, foreign central banks have stepped up their selling of US Treasury Bonds during the past few weeks. At some point, this will be bearish to bonds -- sending them into a collapse as well. For now, the rush out of stocks and into bonds is propping up bonds. But that support won't hold out forever. Once bonds tumble as well, the attractiveness of gold and silver will become more appearant.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:07 - ID#288100)

Here is a thought question. If you had money in an Indonesian bank, would you "remain calm"?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:10 - ID#222167)
Seeker1: After losing big in Russia and elsewhere last week ( $2 billion ) , I read where George Soros has now bet heavily on Indonesia. Could it be that Soros is now proving that he's also human?

to the newcomers
(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:15 - ID#374108)
the keyword is "disingenuous"

For someone to say "the chart looks sick" at the same time
that person is advocating buying the commodity for which
the chart looks sick is known where I live as "ass-covering".

If gold goes down, Mooney will harken us all to this post
( this is important - No one else will harken to it, it has to
be prompted by Mooney ) where he said "the chart looks sick".
If gold goes up. Mooney will harken us all to this post
where he said "now is the time to buy".

Although it is painfully obvious to everyone except Mooney,
his post are not particularly useful, except in the department
of self-aggrandizement post fact. It's like that kid who after
the football game always had to point out his insignificant
accomplishments ( I held the football for the kicker when
the wind kept blowing it off the tee ) just so he could feel
a part.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:19 - ID#286199)
@connecting the dots
Steve Puetz: Is the foreign selling of treasury debt the reason that the M2 and M3 money supply numbers are increasing so much? More importantly, how long does it usually take for the large doses of new money to impact the retail markets? Can the monetization of debt be done so as to not raise the inflation spectre?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:19 - ID#288100)

Steve: Not sure what to make of Soros. Is he just a good hedge fund speculator, or is there a darker side? I really have no idea. If I were an Indonesian, you can bet I would not remain calm. I would have bought the precious months ago. Getting a little late in the game over there, IMHO. Their tragic situation should serve as a warning.

The Major
(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:28 - ID#372425)
Mike And Peutz:Thank you both.I guess I will stay the coarse and trade
on short term momentum going to cash.I think we may see some upward moves
in oil prices sooner than later,which may " add fuel " to the golds.
Thanks again.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:30 - ID#270152)
( from my 9/27/97 post ( at 16:48 ) on "WHEN THE TENT COLLAPSES"

repeated here/now, in 'caps'/HIGHER CASE, with updated, interpretative-explanations, in
parentheses ( ... ) . as follows ... : )

( -which means: 'when the U.S. ( & global-world ) , economy declines -- ultimately into a depression'
{{-as pre-ceded by the U.S dollar's fall 'from grace'- until utterly repudiated - as the world's
"reserve currency"}} ) ...

( -which means: 'it will not be the the U.S. stock-market, that goes first' ) ...

'IT WILL BE THE SIDE-POSTS'{-which go down, before the center post does}
( -which means: the markets, economies, {& monetary & politcal stability ) -- of other nations -
such as: Japan, middle-east nation-states; plus Hong-Kong/China, Russia, and Europe ) ...

'AND EVEN THE STAKES ' ( -that go down first )
( -which means: the supposedly "minor" nation-states {-starting with their currencies, then their
markets & economies} -- the "Aian Tigers", So. America, and others ) .

Current reassurancies by financial & political "experts & authorities" not withstanding; even when
added to the wishful-thinking of the 'out-of-balance' majority -- we are living in an inter-
connected, global economy, which I use, the metaphor of the "TENT", to describe. The 'TENT'
is indeed, coming apart, at the seams.

It is being first - "rent" -- at the point and places, where the "STAKES" are now giving-way...
( - places like Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia ) - the 'Asian Tigers'.

Then the 'rending-fabric' will spread - as it tears apart, and tears-down 'the SIDE-POSTS'.

Ultimately, the United States -- as the "CENTER-POST" will crumble, it's currency, and
stock-markets begin folow suit, and topple, too - just like the other nations of theworld, preceding

The U.S., will ultimately, run out of "options" - - political, monetary & banking, maneuvers. The
international community will ultimately have-to face this 'day of reckoning', sooner or later.
( -- Whether the U.S. finds the political will, and inherent national integrity to face these facts ..
or not. )

The world monetary & economic structure is rapidly approaching "melt-down" -- the point at
which the "old order" - will simply, no longer work.

The 'old-order' - may be defined as: the age-ing, international, collective attempt - to support &
maintain - the social and economic fabric of a global-economic world - based upon a consumer-
driven economic market-place, that, is fueled and sustained - by a constantly growing -
increasingly precarious - mountain - of personal, corporate, and government debt, on all levels.
The U.S. dollar, is the "reserve-currency", the foundation-unit of value & medium of exchange, of
this age-ing, 'old-order' .

The U.S. dollar, as the "reserve-currency" of the free-world, is terminal. This inevitable, unless
there is courageous, political leadership, and international agreement, & action that would
otherwise re-define the U.S. dollar. The 'reserve-currency' of the world, will instead, likely evolve
as some kind of internationally respected unit, based on sound monetary & banking
principles.....such as, perhaps, the evolving 'currency/unit' of the European community.

Whatever, and whereever it finally occurs, the world will, sooner or later, accept and agree to, an
internationally acceptable medium of exchange and store of value .... that cannot be
manipulated by any individual nation, or group of countries.

In the current world political climate, there is evidently no concensus of political wills, sufficient to
face these monetary, financial and economic issues. Without the leadership, the honest fortitude
to address this unfoling, international monetary, economic, and political crisis, the situation will
most likely, get much worse, before it gets better.

The concerned, leading, nation-states, of the free-world, are simply not sufficiently concerned.
Their citizenry, esp. the people of the United States of America, are - to put it bluntly - asleep at
the 'switch'. ( - Pun intended. ) It would take a 'body-politic' of aware, informed citizenry, to insist
on the government and financial authorities, of the world's leading nations, to 'tell it like it is' ...
and to take the necessay, 'painful' actions necessary, to return the world to an international,
monetary/credit system, based on stability and integrity.

Again, I re-emphasize: this will have to be an internationally agreed to monetary & banking
system, that will leave no room, for any nation ( -or group of ) to manipulate - currency values and
interest rates, independently of a stable, enduring, internationally recognized, respected, and
utilized - monetarystandard -- that is universally agreed to -- and trusted in -- by all free nations
of the world.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:33 - ID#224149)
Mooney- I see some net-heads can not find a life anywhere but at Kitco and they come in at different shifts.Good Night and Happy Trails.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:41 - ID#222167)
Speed: The increases in M2 and M3 are related to stepped-up bank lending. ( Every new bank loan created a new bank deposit. ) I believe these loans are directly or indirectly related to stock market speculation -- corporate buy-backs, home equity loans ( being re-routed into stocks ) , credit-card loans ( being re-routed into stocks ) , etc.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:48 - ID#347457)
Geez Hepcat, get a life!!!
John, I am skipping all your posts but suddenly I opened one by mistake. John, get a girlfriend ( or boyfriend if that's your preference ) and get laid. You constant crying for recognition must have something to do with your unfulfilled sexual craving. It for sure reminds me a teenage boy crying "I can't get a date ... I am still virgin"

(Sun Nov 02 1997 18:59 - ID#237143)
Arrogant and Insulting
Hepcrap: I know you think you have an infallible crystal ball, but those of us not so gifted are forced to learn from our errors. Only fools fail to adjust their position when the market proves them incorrect.

You have indeed been right on gold. But that helps no one here because you never give the rationale for your forecast. Other bears like RJ give us the reasons for their position. And your grossly off base stock market call shows that you too can blow it badly. Will you learn from your errors? I doubt it.

Your arrogant insulting prose marks you for what you are -- Hepcrap.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 19:04 - ID#286199)
Puetz: Thanks. What should I look for as evidence that ordinary market forces are not keeping up with bond dumping and that the Fed is buying them thereby monetizing the debt? Would M1 necessarily increase? Or could the M2 and M3 numbers be used to discern this? Would the Fed be so brazen as to just announce it publicly?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 19:07 - ID#263259)
@the eye of the storm
Chaos is the word for the day.

Gusto Oro
(Sun Nov 02 1997 19:08 - ID#377235)
"To the Newcomers"--Most penny resource mining stocks suffered severe damage post Bre-X and some even well into the summer. A few might have been scams and everybody knows many are prayers. The majority may very well pay off and in this millenium too. "Momie I held the expert on ass-covering steady on the tee today despite a lot of wind and saw him booted into the endzone with no return."

Crystal Ball
(Sun Nov 02 1997 19:15 - ID#287367)
Redmond, Wash
REDMOND, Wash. - Oct. 30, 1997 -- In direct response to accusations made by the Department of Justice, the Microsoft Corp. announced today that it will be acquiring the federal government of the United States of America for an undisclosed sum. "It's actually a logical extension of our planned growth", said Microsoft chairman Bill Gates, "It really is going
to be a positive arrangement for everyone".
Microsoft representatives held a briefing in the oval office of the White House with U.S. President Bill Clinton, and assured members of the press that changes will be "minimal". The United States will be managed as a wholly owned division of Microsoft. An initial public offering is planned for July of next year, and the federal government is expected to be profitable by "Q4 1999 at latest", according to Microsoft president Steve Ballmer.
In a related announcement, Bill Clinton stated that he had "willingly and enthusiastical

(Sun Nov 02 1997 19:23 - ID#347332)
Packers 26 Lions 6. Hows that for a prediction.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 19:30 - ID#431263)
Herr Mikey--Sounds good to this PACKERBACKER! However you might be selling Barry Sanders a mite bit short. My guess--Packers 31 Lions 17! Hope you're right and I'm wrong! Either way it's a W and I'll take it. Gotta' stay with those @#$% Vikings, Buccaneers and 49'ers! Wiedersehen, mein cheesehead Freund!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 19:32 - ID#288352)
If what another says is correct, then we need to chart:
Au vs. Oil vs. Bonds vs. Dollar.
That should give us some meaning ful patterns - sy 1990 - 97

(Sun Nov 02 1997 19:36 - ID#347332)
Sanders too busy on the phone buying Puts.Will show up
physically but not mentally.Worried bout' Market Crash

(Sun Nov 02 1997 19:45 - ID#432148)
LA Times biz page headline - "16 Indonesian banks shut down". US and Soros trying to save Indonesia? Fingers in the dike? Great column on derivitives in Barrons this week by Sandra Ward on page MW17 - The Striking Price. Michael Metz says they are the "time bomb". Worth a read and some thot.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 19:46 - ID#347332)
TO Miro;
Dont skip his posts. You don't know what you're missing.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 19:46 - ID#386276)
Steve Puetz
I am truly glad to see you back posting your rational, logical and informative insights.
I would much prefer to read these narratives, than the hen-pecked comments that come from the hecklers.
Those people who feel so important to be able to post illogical arguements, using no rational thought processes do pale so in comparrison.
Keep up the good work and maybe the hecklers will blow away like chaff in the wind.
I for one have profited well from following your calls and purchasing puts in the SP500.
Prior to this occasion I had never bought into o/s positions.
This introduction to markets outside OZ has truly opened my eyes to oportunities that exist overseas.
I liken my positioning, to having taken out insurance.
I currently have a sizeable mortgage over some properties, of which I am currently moving out of.
If we are to have a sizeable correction, the profits from these puts will be sufficient to cover the debts that I carry.
If I did not have this insurance, then I could be like many who find their real assets stripped from them.
If we are not to have a correction ( which I doubt ) then my debts will not become a burden, and this insurance would be removed.
Once again,


for introducing me to this very cheap/highly leveraged form of insurance that is protecting my real assets and securing my future.

Regards Nick Laird

Lurker oo7
(Sun Nov 02 1997 19:54 - ID#310198)
Detroit 35
Green Bay 10

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:01 - ID#217338)
Does anyone have any data on the US pl coin issue ie how many were minted? How many have been sold?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:02 - ID#347457)
Mikey, I know what I am missing. I've got three teenagers at home. That's enough to drive me crazy ;- )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:06 - ID#289349)
Does anyone know the current mint price for silver eagles?

What should I be willing to pay for a small quantity ( 200 ) of silver eagles?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:07 - ID#386276)
Hope this is what you were after.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:16 - ID#290271)
Plaintalker: regarding the US Mint PL sales....I'm a coin and bullion dealer. Here's how it looks right now: I have not seen the initial mintage numbers from the mint yet. They are, however, a very popular coin. They are selling for anywhere from $20-50 over spot. Right now I see it as more of a novelty until the market becomes established -- much like the early days of the American Gold Eagle. Right now, Gold Eagles retail for about 6% over spot, plus shipping. I expect the Platinum Eagles to fall into a groove along those lines. What will make these coins interesting is the wild moves the PL market can make in a short period of time. Also, since the Platinum Eagles are not being sold for commercial value, I see the taking of this "inventory" out of the commercial market over a period of time as something to keep an eye on.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:21 - ID#290271)
Silver......I'd be happy to sell you 200 1997 Silver Eagles at $1.75 over spot, plus shipping ( about 10 bucks ) . There is a break with 500 Eagles ( $1.65 ) and 1000 Eagles ( $1.55 ) . I'm assuming you live in the USA. I've seen them sold in the market for as high as $2.50 over spot. Send me an e-mail if you would like some more info!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:21 - ID#20135)
Maybe a litte finer detail say from 93 to present. If that isn't to much bother.

Silver Junkie
(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:22 - ID#288295)

Scotty, I am interested in pre 64 US "junk silver". Is there a standard mark up over spot? Do you know what $1,000 face value goes for now? Thanks.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:22 - ID#217338)
Scotty: thx pls keep us updated re pl coins.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:29 - ID#288352)
Yes, that's what I wnated. Am disappointed that there do not seem to be
highly visble relationships.
Any ideas ?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:30 - ID#170211)
Back from Switzerland
Sliver Junkie...NY Times used to list the value of face value $1,000 bags
everyday in business section...haven't looked lately

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:32 - ID#263235)
Diamond stocks ?
Puetz - what do you feel about buying diamond stocks now ?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:34 - ID#262242)
All: Yahoo "international market summary" is not bringing up the asian markets. They should be open & trading. Anyone know of of another URL for the Asian markets????


(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:37 - ID#386276)
Here you go.
I have noticed that Bloomberg and Yahoo world markets summary's have not been updated.
Is this a new service they provide?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:37 - ID#30116)
@The firearms issue?
I see the fallacy of the gun owner killing his family members and friends by accident is alive and well! Does this apply to any others implements as well?

The founding fathers of the Constitution put the second amendment in there, because they saw that the safe guards for liberty would be undone someday. This was to be the final line of defense against a tyrannical government. But what the hell, let's forget Ruby Ridge and Waco, Texas. After all, if you're 'different' ( as in not Politically Correct ) , you need to be dealt with.

Then again, Hitler saw the light! He banned those vile weapons, from those he couldn't trust. Then, later, he killed them. Not to be out-done, the U.N. feels the same way about those vile weapons. Hmmmm.

One final thought on this issue. If so many fine upstanding citizens were killing each other in this manner, don't you think we would have a few more corpses laying around?

Sorry guys and gals, count me in with the second amendment group. I, at least, want to be able to defend myself. I'm not much, but I'm all I've got.

Hell, someone may want to take my worthless gold. Then what will I do? :- ) )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:40 - ID#27997)

Could be interesting to watch Europe this AM. Truckers reject 5% wage hike.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:41 - ID#30116)
BillInOregon -- Singapore is up 3% and the Golobex is up.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:42 - ID#251165)
To BillinOregon; try this for Hang Seng.

Who Cares
(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:43 - ID#244209)

Aurator's 'statistical' gun deaths are erroneous, as they
include criminals that kill each other, their spouses, their
friends, etc.

I'm always sceptic of "statistics" that are the opposite of
my own experiences - zero deaths to me, wife, siblings, friends,
extended family, but three personal experiences where I was
glad to be a fire-arm owner and a criminal wasn't.

If I were the "powers that be", I'd be striving to keep the
markets afloat, at any cost, until 1999 or so, when I could
claim that "computers caused the Crash".

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:43 - ID#27997)
Try again

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:44 - ID#30116)
@To Bart
Bart -- It seems as though the links are not being handled correctly. Either you put them in the begining of the post, and then the rest of the post is not viewable or the URL link gets truncated.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:45 - ID#348169)
@Silver Junkie and Scotty
Silver Junkie - I was just going to ask Scotty why ANYBODY would buy huge quantities of the Silver Eagles paying such high premiums over spot considering that older coins sell pretty close to their actual silver content value, but I guess there is that market that wants the new purer coins. ( Me, I'd rather have more silver for the same dollars! ) . There is also the bar option for those that want large quantity of pure without paying large premium.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:47 - ID#263235)
ANYONE - comment on diamond stocks
Could anyone give their opinion on buying diamond stocks in these uncertain times. It would appear unwise to buy gold as this is so clearly being manipulated ( down ) .

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:49 - ID#260194)
Silver Junkie: Another place to buy $1000.00 of silver coins is
F. J. Vollmer - Blooington, IL ( 1-800-447-8368 )

With London spot at $4.74 they buy the bag at $3250.00 And sell
at $3350.00. They work with a $100.00 spread. They ship free.
They sell Silver Eagles at $1.50 over spot shipped free on orders
of 100 or more. They buy at $1.22 over spot.

I have bought silver and gold eagles from them and found the to
fast and on the up and up.

On large purchases I use my GM master card. They charge 2 1/2%
premium. But I get back 5% from GM on my next new Chev. With
the credit card they usually ship the next day.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:50 - ID#30116)
Globex volume is typically light, and not to be trusted until after 8:30 to 9:00 A.M. Eastern Standard Time. By 9:15 or so, what you are seeing is the regular day session trading. That is the opening sentiment. Not that it can't change in a heart beat, mind you.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:52 - ID#30116)
Lurker -- Diamonds are as good a speculative play as any, for an explorer outfit. Generally, one word sums up diamonds and the diamond market, DeBeers ( sp? ) .

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:53 - ID#27997)

52 week range in Indonesian Stocks 445-745. Now at 500. Will keep an eye on the situation there.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:55 - ID#31868)
Lurker: If you wish to really enter the casino, look to Brazil...Spider Resources...SPQ.AL

Good luck...I am there with you...diamondiferous, but I can't spell, it's a gamble for sure.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:56 - ID#228128)
Panda: Thanks. Do you have any S. African shares that you favor? I've been tracking Harmony and Western Areas ( Disney likes WARSY ) . Western Areas appears to be very thinly traded. Could pop in price real well when gold takes off but be dificult to unload if gold tumbles some more.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 20:57 - ID#263235)
Thanks Panda
Thanks Panda. Methinks better deBeers than fighting the G7 market manipulators.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:05 - ID#222167)
Lurker: Diamonds have very little monetary demand. Each diamond is valued differently. Diamonds are also illiquid. For these reasons, I would avoid diamonds and diamond stocks as a hedge against a monetary collapse.

Big Beaver
(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:06 - ID#262358)
28 October 1997
Swiss Authorities Should End "Damaging

The World Gold Council calls on the Swiss authorities to end the damaging
uncertainty following the untimely release of the report of the expert
group on the revision of the Swiss currency law. This report, which inter
alia recommends large-scale sales of gold from the Swiss reserves, has
resulted in damaging uncertainty to the world's gold market.

The statement of the Swiss Finance Department ( EFD ) of 24 October, and
subsequent press coverage, leaves unclear to what extent the Swiss
authorities endorse the proposal of the panel of experts.

The best indications of their views, according to the 24 October
statement, are:

that there should be "a limit to the extent of disposal/transfer" of
gold reserves;

that they "prefer to stay with the original concept which is based on
simply making it possible to dispose of gold to a counter-value of
CHF7 billions" ( $4.75 billion, or about 460 tonnes at $320 per ounce;
this was originally intended to finance the establishment of a
humanitarian fund ) ; but

that "the additional gold reserves not needed for monetary policy
would remain the property of the National Bank and be managed by them
or by third parties authorised by them". The timing and scale of any
gold sales for this purpose are left completely open;

The Council welcomes the recognition by the report of the advantages of
gold as a reserve asset, especially for a country like Switzerland, a
major financial centre. The report states that a relatively high gold
reserve "reflects the fact that many depositors view gold as the only
asset which keeps its value over the centuries". The positive view of gold
has not been reflected in the media coverage of the Swiss report.

The World Gold Council points out that all these proposals are subject to
decisions by parliament and popular referendums. It is considered unlikely
that the referendum on the proposed Solidarity Fund can take place before
2000 at the earliest.

Press Contacts:
R. Pringle ( Switzerland )
D. Ware ( London )
G. Milling-Stanley ( New York )

Note to Editors
On Friday 24 October an expert group, led jointly by representatives of
the Swiss Finance Ministry and Swiss National Bank, produced a report on
reform of the country's currency law which, among a number of proposals,
makes recommendations on Swiss gold holdings. Over the course of time, it
is suggested that 1,400 tonnes of the country's reserves ( currently 2,590
tonnes ) should be sold off for general state and/or cantonal purposes ( the
precise use to be decided later ) .

Big Beaver
(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:10 - ID#262358)
30 October 1997

DIWALI - India's Festival of Lights
Spotlight on Gold

On October 30, India is celebrating Diwali, also called the Festival
of Lights, which marks the beginning of the new year according to the
Hindu calendar.

Gold is an important part of the festival ... the more gold you buy
and give, the more luck you'll enjoy in the new year !

Demand in India and Dubai in the year through end-September has been
strong. Indian demand of 535 tonnes was up 44% over the same period
last year and had already overtaken 1996's full-year total of 508
tonnes. Imports into Dubai were 474 tonnes, up 86% vs the 255 tonnes
through September last year.

While retail demand has been slow in the first two weeks of October,
latest reports from the trade indicate that offtake in India as well
as Dubai is now brisk and traders expect a good Diwali business.

Just before Diwali, the Indian government issued an amendment to the
latest liberalisation move on gold ( see Gold News Flash dated October
20th ) . The import of gold through licensed agencies will now be
allowed immediately, i.e. as of October 28th, 1997 as opposed to the
date set earlier of January 1st, 1998.

The Council welcomes this move. The reduction in the Indian premium vs
the international gold price will be accelerated. As a result, the
restraint on buying by consumers and trade pending the introduction of
the new measures next year has been removed, allowing unimpeded
offtake growth.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:16 - ID#386276)
El Nino effect:
Typhoon plows through Northern Marianas Islands>

30 missing after Cyclone Martin ravages Pacific atoll

For a birds eye view of these two.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:19 - ID#411149)
IDT- I have been trying to buy WARSY for several weeks, I put in a bid and it won't fill because of the spread and I guess thinly traded did not help. I sure am glad it did not fill because ai have decided to buy more
SPX Dec puts if we get a bounce and then I will take the proceeds of those in several weeks and put on April 340 calls.

I did not know for sure about your ADR dividend question but I think they do pay dividends.

Tally Ho

Silver Junkie
(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:22 - ID#288295)

Thanks to Paul, Mooney, Barney for responses. Steve Puetz, any recommendations on types of coins, ratio of gold to silver holdings, and storage? Appreciate anyone else's thoughts, too. Thanks.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:22 - ID#411149)

Tally Ho

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:25 - ID#348169)
Lest anybody be confused by Hep's latest attempt to distort my earlier post I will try and be clear.
1 ) I do not believe that I made any concerted attempts to convince Kitcoites to 'average down' physical Gold purchases from $380. til now.
2 ) Although I AM saying that presently the long term gold chart 'still looks sick' I will not be using this present day statement as an excuse to refute my other strongly felt conviction that: NOW IS THE TIME TO BE ACCUMULATING THE PHYSICAL.
3 ) What I AM saying is that whichever way the gold market heads from this day on a good game plan is to start NOW to dollar cost average as whether we are at the exact bottom or not we are close enough to the absolute lows to make this plan work to your tremendous benefit over the next few years.
Flag Resources ( A.FGR.A )
4 ) Due to his continual harping on the subject I will state once again that I have been on a two month hiatus from the net ALTOGETHER, not just to avoid playing games with the Cat. The reason I have not discussed Flag, ( in spite of his continual nitpicking ) has nothing whatsoever to do with its stock market action which, BTW, has been quite good since the summer months when it was at $.30 and HE predicted that it would become as dust and I predicted that it would recover to $.65. This recently happened but still I did not come on the net and brag ( as I'm sure Hep would have done if it bit the dust ) . No, the reason I have not mentioned it here is due to the fact that about last Jan./Feb. it was agreed by many participants that we would try and keep our discussions about the juniors over on Bart's other site which is more specifically set up for that purpose - Coins, Bars and Stocks at the top of this page - I ( and others ) continue the discussion about Flag over there from time to time and also on private e-mail. We do so tire of playing in the Cat's litterbox. All future Flag discussions ( by this participant AAR ) will continue in those arenas.
BTW - Cat - Because Flag DID take a few extra weeks past what I had predicted to make it back to $.65 - I DID keep my promise and I avoided Big Macs and Coke for a whole week, I think I even made it for almost two weeks. There are you happy now? Oh, BTW, I sure hope that didn't hurt the market performance of your two favourite stocks ( at least according to what you told us last Spring ) MCDONALDS and COCA-COLA. Keep on dipping you PHD ( Permanently Happy Dipster ) .

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:28 - ID#31868)
Puetz: Sir, are you telling us that a bushel of diamonds is illiquid? I think not.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:32 - ID#348169)
"Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world
owes you nothing. It was here first." ----- Mark Twain

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:35 - ID#262204)
@blow em to hell
Diamonds are a losers best friend. JUST ASK ME i'LL TELL YA SUCKER.

Mike Stewart
(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:38 - ID#270253)
New features are available at the Princeton Economic Institute site.
I found the new Global Market View and Editorial worth a good look.
Check it out at

They expect the rally in the S&P to fail this week with a sharp downturn from midweek. Then expect a 50% retracement rally into year end with further lows into the spring. This fits with the pattern expected during a post +3000 McClellan Summation .

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:38 - ID#7568)

You get my vote.

A few relavant gun stats from 1993.

1. According to FBI stats about 57,500 non-fatal shootings.
2. About 16000 murders.
3. About the same number of suicides.
4. About 1500 accidental deaths.
5. About 1.3 million crimes where a handgun was used.

Own gold, silver, platinum, palladium. Ditch the weopons.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:40 - ID#431263)
Sorry Herr Lurker--Pack already has 14 and Herr Sanders can't seem to get out of his own way. Pack 31 Lions 17! Regards GC!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:41 - ID#263259)
cheering section
Mooney re 21:25 post: You and the other gurus are greatly appreciated. Believe me we can esily tell the difference between your rationale and Hep's sniping. And from the opinions of myself and my fellow amateurs. I've been lurking pretty closely recently ( and chiming in my 2 cents ...2*10^-11 billion dollars in Federalese... from time to time ) not because I know anything about TA, but because I've got a heap of money riding on the fundamentals of the metals market.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:43 - ID#386276)
From the Oct issue of 'Paydirt'.
A very high quality monthly magazine, which specializes in Aussie gold and mining stocks.
This magazine is extremely well researched and well presented and worth the buy.
Louthean Publishing Pty Ltd. PO Box 1589, Western Australia. 6872.
Tel. 61 8 9321 0355. Fax 61 8 9321 0426.

"The copper industry is one of the groups that must be happy with the new European currency.
Bloomberg News has reported that as much as 300,000 tons of copper will be required for the manufacture of new coins for the launch of the single European currency on January 1, 1999.
The Financial Times has cited KM Europa Metal AG, the world's largest producer as saying the European Commission is expected to place orders for the metal with Finland's Outokumpu Oy, German copper processor Wieland-Werke and KM Europa.
Manufacturers of the new coins, copper processors who are used to storing scrap metal, could face additional cost for providing secure storage for coins delivered to them for recycling."

Strad Master
(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:43 - ID#250297)
LGB: I finally was able to access your response to me regarding my defense of Vronsky and his site. I thank you for your respectful tone and your obvious respect for Vronsky and his site. Perhaps ( as is often the case in cyberspace ) your words were misunderstood. Parentehtetically, perhaps we WILL met personally someday. I know I'd be fascinated by what you do for a living with all that rocket science stuff which I've loved since I was a kid - getting up at 2 AM to watch the photos from first moon probe as it crashed into the surface. I often vist JPL when they have their open house.
Now, a statement about doom and gloomers: I've heard the analogy made, that if the weather report calls for a severe storm by 1 PM and if by 5 it is still not raining but great, dark clouds are gathering - do you go out without a raincoat and umbrella just because it wasn't raining at 1? Seems to me that contrarians ( gloom and doomers ) are often far too early in their predictions. Perhaps, they see the storm gathering way off in the distance. However, if their start time for a financial storm passes without the arrival of the expected chaos, is it then safe to jump back in the financial waters with both feet, ignoring the gathering ominous dark clouds? What, my friend, would you advise someone TODAY ( Sunday November 2 ) entering the market for the first time with money to invest?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:45 - ID#390249)
HK up over 5%
According to Bloomberg, HK is up over 5%, Malaysia and Singapore up 3% and Indonesia unchanged. I wonder if there is some coordinated world wide manipulation going on or has the IMF deal in Indonesia created a sense of security?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:50 - ID#162148)
Aurator & D.A.: As the holder of a Florida "License to carry", I may lawfully employ deadly force to protect my life or the life of another. I would love to have an answer from both of you, and all other anti-gunners to this very serious question: If you come to Florida on vacation and I happen to come upon the scene when you and your family are seconds away from being killed---as so many tourists have been in the last several years--would you prefer that I pull out my Glock 27 and blow the marauders away, thus saving the lives of your loved ones and you, or would you rather I just walk away? If your answer is that you'd rather watch your loved ones die, then, and ONLY then, you have the moral standing to advance your gun banning agenda.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:51 - ID#31868)
Nick: Money 101, always watch copper, it is the best barometer.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:52 - ID#60253)
Western thought is still linked to gold as a commodity.
That thinking is going to change! The world will
witness an almost instantaneous run into this commodity
the likes of we have never seen before! It will not be
a trading rally or a two way street. Bullion will
have become a holding for the lifetime never to be
sold. Sell and spend everything but not gold!

Do you think in these terms: if gold goes up $100+
next week Ill sell my futures, gold stocks and 10
K-rands for a fat profit and laugh all the way to
the bank
If the gold market was the same as in the 70s and
80s, that might be a good move. But this market
is not the same. The world has changed and left
most goldbugs fighting the last war! Only this time
they are much smarter and have many more tools
to work with. But, what if you do battle with your
modern missiles pointing the wrong direction?

For us to understand what is about to happen we
must pull our minds out of the paper trading world.
Instead enter the world of real things! Here we will
see concepts more clearly.

All currencies and most treasury debt are little more
than digital units of perceived value. You dont own
them, your account is credited with this value.
Foreign governments, such as Japan are no better
off than American citizens, they dont own anything
either! What is really owned is the right to offer
what is credited to you, to a bidder in exchange for
real things or other credits. It is a strange way to
hold wealth. One might say my net worth is the
intention of others to pay me a credit from someone
else. This thinking has worked well until the late
80s. It was at this time that a few wealthy and very
smart people started to see the end of this. They
understood that the US$ was not going to crash,
it already had. It, along with all major currencies
would lose all sense of value and become only
trading digits of account. The treasury debts were
little more than the same thing.
You see, all currencies now compete with each
other, not for value of wealth but for USAGE.
The game has now become whose currency gets
used the most for trading not for value against
goods! It was easy to know the currency
that got used for oil would win this game. Today,
all currencies are traded against the dollar for
its usage as a medium of oil exchange! Take
away that link and the entire currency/ debt
exchange system, as we know it will collapse!
The US$ must be maintained as the most used
if the other currencies are to have a chance to
survive. Will Japan sell US treasury debt and
risk taking dollars out of usage? Not in your
life! Nor will any other CB!
They will talk about it. They will sell a little.
But sell a lot? It will not happen.
You see oil is the key and that connection
to the dollar is changing. Foreign CBs will
even sell some gold to try and keep the
US$ in play ( see my other posts ) . Ever
wonder why the US treasury has not sold
gold, it would have the opposite effect!
The oil that sense the early 70s, held
together the world monetary system is
now causing it to slide apart! We are
not going to see inflation or deflation
again. What we are now seeing is the
destruction of our paper monetary

Someone once asked if the currency/
banking system breaks down, how will
we know what gold is worth?. My
answer, gold above ground will be worth
a lot more than gold below ground, a lot

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:57 - ID#431263)
Herr Lurker--Make that Pack already has 17! Hope your market predictions are better than your football prognostications! : ) Regards, GC

(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:57 - ID#335190)
Gold Related @ Maybe????????????
Malaysia's Mahathir calls for new currency rules

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 3 ( Reuters ) - Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad on Monday called on developing countries to support his drive for new rules to protect against "unethical and unfair" currency speculation.
Mahathir said in a speech prepared for delivery to the opening ceremony of the Group of 15 ( G-15 ) summit that Southeast Asia had suffered in recent months when "some currency speculators wreaked havoc and impoverished our economies."

November 2, 1997
FOCUS-Malaysia PM blasts speculators at G-15 summi
The G-15 members are Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Peru, Senegal, Venezuela and Zimbabwe. Kenya will be admitted this week.

"We have now seen how even the strongest currency of the countries with the strongest economy can be made to depreciate," Mahathir said in an apparent reference to the Hong Kong dollar.

"This deliberate devaluation of the currency of a country by currency traders purely for profit is a serious denial of the rights of independent nations," the Malaysian leader said.

"By any measure the present system of currency trading is unethical and unfair to the countries attacked," he said. "Market forces by themselves cannot determine that the rules and regulations will be fair to all."
Mahathir said developing countries had bowed to pressure to open their economies to foreign investment without distinguishing between long- and short-term investments.

"Now we know how damaging the investments in our share markets can be. After pushing up share prices to ridiculously high levels, foreign investors simply dumped the shares and collected high capital gains," he said.

Stad Master
(Sun Nov 02 1997 21:59 - ID#250297)
TO ALL EL NINO WATCHERS: The rainy season was supposed to have started here in LA by October or early November. Today we had 97 degrees and one of the most brilliant, cloudless, smog-free days I can remember in a long while. In a way, I almost think it would be a kick if LA suffered a drought this winter ( not that we really need it ) so that politicians like Senator Barbara Boxer and VP AL Gore ( environmental buffoon that he is ) would be proven wrong for their dire predictions of imminent devastation by torrential rain. Now there's a cause for you LGB - gloom 'n doom politicians using unsubstantiated weather predictions in order to extort money from the fearful populace as a way of enhancing their political cachet! ( :- ) )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:04 - ID#173274)
@the scene
D.A. -- Item 5 on your 5 reasons; Seems to me that item belongs on the list TO OWN guns! Accidental deaths; Well, people slip in their bathtubs too. Suicides; OD on a drugstore item will also work fine. Murders; What say we also ban knives, sticks and stones also.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:07 - ID#335190)
Gold Related @ Maybe????????????
November 2, 1997
LONDON, ( Reuters ) - Central and Eastern European economies had the rudiments of free markets, but now needed to create the institutions and policies to generate high and sustained growth, said the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ( EBRD ) .

The EBRD's 1997 Transition Report for Eastern Europe, the Baltics and former Soviet Union said countries that have reformed most vigorously in recent years have recovered from recession more rapidly and attracted more investment.

Income disparity and poverty, however, have increased throughout the area in the 1990s in tandem with the reform process, the EBRD said.

Almost half the countries monitored have current account deficits in excess of 7 percent of gross domestic product, the EBRD said.

The ability to fund these current account deficits will be one of the main causes for concern among policymakers looking to sustain higher growth rates in the years ahead, it said.

While strong foreign inflows help bridge these gaps, they also create the risk of excessive real exchange rate appreciation and macroeconomic volatility. To deal with this, the financial system must be strengthened and closely regulated, the EBRD said.

Within the region, the EBRD said the pace of reform this year was impressive in Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia and Romania. Backtracking, however was evident in Belarus, Slovakia and Uzbekistan. Reform came to a standstill in the Ukraine, it said.

Charles Manson
(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:07 - ID#343337)
@Hey we have internet too ya know!

I think what they are trying to say is that:

Typical owners of guns ( such as yourself ) are more likely to shoot yourself or some other poor bystander in this case the family your trying to protect. Or in the attempt to be Super Hero, you will provoke a gun shoot out getting yourself killed along with alot of other innocent bystanders. Guys like you can be very dangerous ( no offense being that your anonymous ) .

Perhaps we should let the police do their jobs and if they are lacking, then put more emphasis on training better police or more police. Or vote for stiffer penalties for gun wielding outlaws.

Quite frankly, the families you may try to be Super Hero to, you probably will end up getting them shot dead including yourself.

Just one man's opinion!

Steve Jobs
(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:07 - ID#289303)
We are now entering a very prosperous information age. The technology around the corner is beyond belief and with the help of China we can manufacture and develop goods to increase standard of living here and abroad. You have all seen the cartoon "The Jetsons". This way of life is going to be reality sooner than most of you think. Gold can't compete as an investment because technology is going to bring prices down. Gold is going nowhere.

Who Cares
(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:10 - ID#244209)
Interesting Astrological Posting

Found this tonight on misc.invest.stocks -

News Release Oct. 27, 1997:


Robert Tkoch, a long-established Bay Area astrologer, has outpredicted
the best financial experts. He accurately outlined the present market
crash at a time when no one else thought it could happen.

Not only that, but he gave exact instructions on how to profit from the
crash. If you had followed his advice, you would be a lot wealthier now.

Robert, whose business address is in Los Altos, has created his own
internet site on the world wide web,>
At his StarCenter site, he provides a free weekly forecast for everyone,
also offering personal readings for individual self-development.

In his forecast for September 28 and 29, 1997, Robert included a special
report, which he called a "Helio Financial Update." Helio is short for
heliocentric, meaning Sun-centered. Robert's astrology is unique, in that
it looks at things from the standpoint of the Sun, while most astrologers
use the old system centered on the earth.

In that report, Robert said:

Financial Bulletin written 9-28-97:

It appears that the new moon on October 1, 1997, will likely signal a
downturn in the financial markets. This will tend to become more
pronounced at the full moon on October 15, 1997.

This negative energy is fighting against a general uptrend, but will
probably prevail against it. If you wish to speculate on this advice,
the following strategies are suggested:

1.Risky Strategy: Around October 1, purchase below-the-money puts on
the OEX or on the S&P 500 indices. Bettors with limited funds can
purchase puts on the new mini-S&P 500 index. Probably, November or
December options will be best. Monitor the progress at the
beginnng and end of each trading day. Sell when the trend seems
to be stopping.

2.Safer Strategy: Wait until the full moon on October 15. If, by
that date, the market level has not dropped much, buy the same
options as in the risky strategy. Again, buy November or December
options. But if the market has already dropped considerably since
October 1, it may be too late to profit.

3.Very High-Risk Strategy: do as in the safer strategy, only buy
October put options, which will expire around October 17. These
puts should be only slightly below the market, and you should only
buy them, in large quantities, if everyone else has abandoned them
as worthless. If the market has not dropped much since October 1,
then the period around October 15-17 could possibly see a
precipitous drop, with a remarkable payoff.

This prediction is based upon heliocentric planetary analysis.
Naturally, you should only play the markets if you know what you are
doing, and if you can truly afford to lose everything that you bet.

( The full text of this forecast can be seen at: )

How about that for clear advice? The options which he recommended have
increased in value between 200% and 600% at this writing. Robert admits
that he knows little about the markets, concentrating his research on
astrology itself. But a sophisticated investor, or a good broker with
broad knowledge of the options market, could easily have profited by
1000% or more.

Robert also posted his prediction to the alt.astrology newsgroup on
September 28 and 29, 1997. "But," he says, "no one there took it seriously."

Well, his predictions are still out there on the web, for all the world
to see. And many investors are now taking their recent losses very, very

What, then, from here? Robert is very conservative, and only makes public
predictions when he is sure of his word. His only other public
financial prediction was on August 4 and 5, 1997, when he included this
bulletin in his weekly forecast, also posting it to alt.astrology:

Addendum written August 4:

According to many converging heliocentric factors, it seems likely that
a correction in the value of the U.S. dollar is likely. This correction
could occur at any time in the near future.

For those who would not be devastated by a possible loss, it might be
interesting to speculate on this condition. One possible bet would be
to purchase put options on the U.S. dollar index. As of today, the
value of the September dollar contract was around 100, so September
puts, which expire on September 5, with a strike price of 97 or 98,
are very affordable.

Alternatively, you might buy calls on the Deutsche Mark or on the Swiss
Franc. If buying options, probably a good target will be a 400% return
on your investment, with a 50% chance of total loss. These figures are
just estimates.

However --- if you are not a seasoned trader, and are not accustomed to
great wins and terrible losses --- keep your money in the bank. These
ideas are offered as pure speculation, and only a good trader should
try to use them.

( The full text of this forecast can be found at: )

How did he do on this one? An outright winner again. Within a day or two,
the US dollar began to fall, and the Deutsche Mark began to rise. The
trend continued, and his suggested investments profited more than he
conservatively predicted.

What does he say for the future? Right now, he shakes his head, and only
says, "The situation will soon change drastically."

Is Robert rich from his knowledge? "I'm not that interested in money,"
he says, "but always tend to ignore the world while I pursue my interests.
Perhaps I will just put this knowledge out there, and some honorable
investor will recognize the advantage of my friendship, providing me with
a sailboat and an income so I can sail to Greece, meanwhile continuing
my forecasts and keeping in touch via satellite telephone. This would be a
fitting way to live."

So there goes Robert, predicting stockmarket crashes and sailing away into
the sunset. Meanwhile, he is available for personal consultations on
matters financial and personal, through readings in person, over the
telephone, or via a mailed audio cassette. You can reach him at:

StarCenter Advanced Galactic Astrology
334 State St. #106 Los Altos, CA 94022
tel. 408-221-3588

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:12 - ID#173274)
@the scene
I value ownership of guns much like gold, food storage, etc. Insurance! With a gun, I might even be able to continue to eat through hunting when many others are on zero rations. It might even help protect my family during uncertain times. Do I otherwise need to use it? No. Will I use it if the need arises? DAMN RIGHT! Will I defend my right to keep it? OH YES!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:13 - ID#431263)
HERR ANOTHER--If what you say is true, the fireworks in gold is just beginning and instead of just one or two central banks controlling physical gold EVERY INVESTOR IN GOLD will be controlling it for his/her own financial survival. Always dreamed about being my own CB! "GOLD ABOVE GROUND WILL BE WORTH A LOT MORE THAN GOLD BELOW GROUND. A LOT MORE!" tells me that you better BUY PHYSICAL GOLD NOW BEFORE IT'S ALL GONE and that gold stocks will dramatically UNDERPERFORM GOLD BULLION FOR THE LONG TERM! Danke HERR ANOTHER!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:14 - ID#348169)
@223 and oldman
223 - Thanks, I'm basically a Fun duh Meatlist too ;- )
Oldman - Next time I'm in Florida with my family I want to visit in your neck of the woods! ( Actually, without being able to 'carry' myself while in the States ( or Canada ) I'd just as much prefer never to see any guns ( unless under glass ) at all, thank-you very much!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:14 - ID#286199)
Charles Manson: The fact that you and your ilk are still alive illustrates quite well why many of us own guns.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:15 - ID#348169)
And a fun da metalist also!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:16 - ID#335190)
Gold Related @ Maybe????????????
November 2, 1997
Traders fear tech glitches in market's next frenzy

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - A few days after record trading volume strained the computer that tabulates the Nasdaq Market's Composite Index, traders fear technical glitches in Nasdaq's computer systems will prevent them from properly executing buy-and-sell orders in another market frenzy.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:18 - ID#31868)
Another: Are you capable of conversing in French. If so, linguistically I prefer Armenian as language but not many are able to converse with me. Since we and us are so much the subject of your dialectical occupation, I prefer singular specific's.

Who Cares
(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:23 - ID#244209)
Would Mooney, D.A. & Aurator Surrender Their Gold?

I can't help wondering if those that would give government a
monopoly on force ( gun ownership ) would willingly give up their
gold and financial holdings to the same kind and benevolent
government, so that "responsible and stable financial direction"
could be achieved.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:23 - ID#255151)

Here's a thought on coins. Please correct me if I'm wrong on any of my math here. I like the 65-69 half-dollars. These are 40% silver content. Can buy $1000 face value for about $1500 now. Gives you 2000 coins. This allows you to benefit fully from silver's rise. Also, it is a hedge against a silver collapse. If silver drops below $3.33, the coin's face value of 50 cents becomes worth more than the silver content. As I see it, this physical form allows full participation in silver's rise, with a downside protection of $1000 for each $1500 invested. Appreciate any corrections or feedback.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:26 - ID#30116)
IDT -- I follow Western Deep and Vaal Reefs ( WDEPY and VAALY ) . I have no particular reason for this, except the volatility. The dividends issue was covered once on the Loui R. show I think. ADRs dividends on the Nasdaq get shaved some in addition to the 'customary' amount. I don't remember the exact reasons, but you don't get the whole dividend amount. WDEPY does have a nice dividend though. The rise and fall of the stock price can kill you though!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:30 - ID#335190)
Gold Related @ Maybe?????????
November 2, 1997
The stock market, the Canadian dollar, the unemployment rate, the Bank of Canada - all these will give important signals this week in determining where the Canadian economy is headed over the rest of this year and early 1998

TORONTO ( CP ) - The stock market, the Canadian dollar, the unemployment rate, the Bank of Canada - all these will give important signals this week in determining where the Canadian economy is headed over the rest of this year and early 1998.

"The risks are to the downside, particularly if the turmoil is Asia continues to spill into Latin America - which represents an additional nine per cent of the world economy."

Porter noted that exports to Asia account for eight per cent of Canadian
sales abroad and about 30 per cent for the United States, so weak Asian
economies will cut about a quarter point of growth for both countries.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:30 - ID#253201)
Another" claims during the turmoil no inflation or deflation. How is that. Gold rises and prices remain. I don't get it. Also if the Saudis have been trading oil for gold they lost money over 17 years. Period. 2 and 2 is 4 not 20.

Lurker oo7
(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:34 - ID#310198)
@ Golden Cheesyhead
YOU and your team SUK! LOSERS

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:35 - ID#319214)
@chill out "Speed" - Try "Tranquilizers"

Speed - don't take offense to this now, but someone needs to tell you!

Relax a little and lighten up. That guy isn't the REAL Charles Manson! But the guy does have a point, statistically speaking. Many accidents are caused from gun owners' carelees mistakes.

Take yourself for example, you seem easily perturbed, hot under the collar type individual inclined to "Go Off" by a poster using a farsical name such as in this case with Manson. Is society safe allowing someone with your psycological instability loose on the street with a gun?

Shoot first, ask questions later mentality? You conduct yourself on this forum in such a manner!

No, I think not - it would definitely be a big mistake for society to allow someone like you with your extreme deficiency to carry a gun much less own one or have access to one. Maybe after some mandatory psycological counceling you could be considered to have an opinion on such an issue.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:36 - ID#30116)
Oldman -- I was down in Florida once. I drove down a highway on the way to Cape Canaveril ( sp? ) , and saw a sign that said not to pick up hitchhikers because of the high crime rate ( murders ) that was happening along this desolate stretch of road. No phones, no COPS, no nothing. If someone gets you to stop for any reason, you could be in serious trouble. I believe some German tourists found this out. They were driving a rental car. I was driving a rental car. They used to put these nice big AVIS and HERTZ bumper stickers on the cars to mark the suckers, er, I mean, to mark who the owners were of the rental cars. Clearly, if they were out of staters, they weren't armed, and as such, EASY targets for a robbery or worse.

After the Murders of the German tourists, the rental companies took a bold move, and removed the identifying bumper stickers....

Lurker oo7
(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:40 - ID#310198)
@ Stupid Lurker from a few minutes ago

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:42 - ID#263259)
@not in Saudi Arabia
JD re 22:30 post: This goes back to the conjecture that gold is a proxy for guns in the foreign policy arena. Suppose the Gulf War had gone differently. Would the Saudis have been able to just sign a chit for a second wave of armament? It seems to me that their gold might have been worth more than its paper value.

Who Cares
(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:42 - ID#244209)
Solution to End Crashes

Government statistics show that 90% of small investors are more
likely to panic and cause stock market crashes. Surely it makes
sense to legislate gold and stock holdings into the hands of a
safer, responsible and more stable entity - the U.N.

Steve Puetzy
(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:48 - ID#280291)
NEWSLTTER ALLERT: The Dow will plunge 7,400 points tomorrow. Buy GOLD!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:48 - ID#30116)
Lurker -- I have found that most who are afraid of firearms, are fearful of them because they do not trust themselves or anyone else.

If I were to go 'off', I would be a little more creative than using a firearm. Motor vehicles are pretty useful in this regard. Especially during lunchtime in a crowded streetside cafeteria. I worked at company once that used a very interesting solvent as part of it's manufacturing process. They stored huge quantities of the stuff underground. Under the employee parking spaces, to be exact. In a nice suburban area to. Boilpoint of the solvent? 85 degrees F. Toxic? Very! I accidently got a whiff of the stuff once. I was too busy trying to make the world stop moving so I could stand up, and not fall down. I stayed VERY FAR away from that stuff ever since...

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:49 - ID#162148)
@self defense
Charlie Manson: I thought way back in '69 that you should have tried an insanity plea. Now I am convinced. Of course there are a lot more like you in liberal circles, to whom facts are totally irrelevant. They said exactly, almost word for word, what you said in your post 10 years ago when our "Right to carry" law was under consideration. With over 300,000 people licensed and a 10 year history to look back on now, guess how many times it has happened? ZERO,ZILCH, NADA. Tens of thosands of crimes have been stopped or prevented, only 18---that's EIGHTEEN--of the licenses have been revoked, and not a single innocent bystander has been shot. I noticed that, even though you ranted for some considerable time you did not answer the simple question I posed. Why dont you answer it? Would you REALLY rather watch your family die, or would you hope that one of the 300,000 licensees happen by at the opportune time? Many otherwise thoughtful people, most of whom are not in jail like you, have not really thought it through. Tell the Goldmans and Browns how much more alive Ron and Nicole would be if honest people could not own guns. Tell the survivors of the 500,000 people hacked to death in afew months' time in Rwanda and Burundi how great it is to be gunless. The handgun is the only thing that can give the average accountant, lawyer or teacher a chance to survive against the OJ's of this world, and is therefore a civilizing tool. The problem is not guns. The problem is uncivilized people with guns. Barbaians can kill just as many with knives. Its just bloodier and takes a little longer.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:50 - ID#31868)
Lead and gold, two realities. The rest is nothing but conversation and or someone else's promise or philosophy. At least with lead and gold you know exactly what you are dealing with.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:51 - ID#42872)
Garbage in = Garbage out. Where [garbage in] is sustainable growth and
low inflation, and garbage out is a mega stock crash. End, period.
To quote R.E.M.
Its the end of the world as we know it,
Its the end of the world as we know it,
And feel fine.

And you ask why? Come on!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:52 - ID#20135)
Thanks for the charts, I will need to spend some time with them. Yahoo does seem to be broken tonight -- no international updates. Oh well, that is life on the internet.

It is really funny when you think about the game going on right now. We are the biggest debtor nation period. But when someone ( any european or asia or latin america nation ) runs into financial trouble who is first in the lending line - U.S.A. Japan makes to much money in their international trade account -- trouble hits them, not to worry the U.S.A. will be their for them with $10, $20 , ... billion ; whatever it takes. Then when we need money their will buy our bonds so we can lend them more money . Around, around it goes, when it stops... maybe soon.

Wonder if the Saudi's having payment problems will cause the unraveling.

Sunday November 2 9:12 PM EST

Saudi struggling to pay for Boeing order- FT

LONDON, Nov 3 ( Reuters ) - Saudi Arabia is said by Riyadh bankers to be struggling to pay for a politically sensitive $7.5 billion aircraft order from
the United States, the Financial Times ( FT ) reported on Monday.

The order for 61 Boeing and McDonnell Douglas aircraft was made two years ago and deliveries were due to start this year.

But Boeing said no aircraft had yet been handed over to Saudia Arabia Airlines Corp 1/8SAUD.CN ( , ) the Saudi national airline, according to the

The Financial Times quoted unnamed Riyadh bankers saying Saudi Arabia was finding it hard to put together a payment package for the deal, signed in
October 1995. Boeing declined to comment to the FT on whether or not there were payment problems.

The order is for five 747s and 23 777s made by Boeing and 29 MD-90s and four freight MD-11s made by McDonnell Douglas.

Chuckie Manson
(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:53 - ID#334321)
@ OLDman
BANG!!! your history

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:54 - ID#30116)
@(Guns aside)
D.A. or Oldman -- Is there any way that we can tell how much pressure the HK$ is under during the trading day? It might be an interesting thing to watch, if nothing else.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:54 - ID#310180)
Johannesburg Gold up 1.78%

Average JOE
(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:57 - ID#256357)
@Just Getting By

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:57 - ID#202177)
Buy Gold. I did.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:58 - ID#162148)
panda, speed, et al: Its not really worthwhile to debate the gun issue. The opposition is largely made up of certifiable nuts like charlie manson, or upper class liberals who dont really believe what they say, but say it anyway, because it makes them "feel' good. 999 out of 1,000 of them would give all his gold and silver----and his GE stock, too---for my Glock if he and his family were in a "Luby's Cafeteria" situation. And he'd USE it, too! That's why its almost impossible to get a lucid? liberal to answer the simple question I posed.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 22:58 - ID#30116)
Charlie Manson and Ilk -- The ending you deserve is the fate suffered by William in BraveHeart. I know, I'm a barbarian! But we wouldn't have to listen to your BS, ever, again.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:00 - ID#390249)
Asian markets up today
A.Goose, try Bloomberg for current Asian quotes. Markets seem to be up across the board. Looks like the IMF package is a success

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:00 - ID#31868)
Average: Not necessary.

Average John
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:02 - ID#247345)
@ Average Joe
Get lost ass wipe

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:02 - ID#20135)
What exactly is a "bag" -- general weight and is it randon dimes, quarters, halves? Appreciate all the good information on buying these and other coins tonight. It has been extremely helpful.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:03 - ID#408152)
in sacramento
Too bad Sharon Tate didn't have a 44-mag.

Boo Boo
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:03 - ID#25757)
the rangers house
LGB = lovable gay bloke
= lonely gloating bovine
= loony gangrenous bandicoot

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:04 - ID#7568)

If I or my family was about to die at the hands of anyone I would be pleased to see someone intervene regardless of the legality of the means. I do not see how this reflects upon any moral standing ( whatever that may be ) necessary to oppose the ownership of handguns. If we made the situation the same only this time it required a small tactical nuclear weapon to accomplish saving my hide, would this mean that I would lack the moral standing to be against private ownership of nukes? Afterall, responible nuke owners would know how to handle their weapons and could in a pinch save us from invasion of a foreign power.

My opposition to handguns is quite simple. Rightly or wrongly I perceive that my world, and the world of my child would be safer if handgun ownership was prohibited in this country. It is my belief that the current laws allowing persons to own handguns does more societal harm than good. The part about having private ownership of guns to protect against the 'government' is paranoid insanity. If the 'government' really wanted to come in and take your liberty away, you can be sure they have the means to do it regardless of your arsenal. The argument for personal protection is a stronger one and no doubt there are many instances where the owner of a gun has warded off a would be attacker. The price however for these instances is outweighed by the number of times a 'responsible' owner loses his or her control and blows someone away over a parking space. As for the argument that the criminals would still get guns, no doubt that some would at least for some time. However, if the punishment were made severe enough the calculus would have fewer would be attackers taking the chance. Since there are countries in the world that do not have handguns floating around the populace in any quantity it is pretty easy to get an idea of the decreasing carnage levels that acompany such action.

Pablo Escobar
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:05 - ID#217174)
A. Goose
A "bag" is ONE oz of DOPE. Enjoy!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:06 - ID#304327)
When I get to the bottom of the stack
I climb up to top and jump off and go for a ride
till I land on the bottom on my head and my back
and then I do it again. Yea Yea Yeaaaa!

Why, Why doesn't anyone like me. Yeaaaaa.
Why, why doesn't anyone write me. Yeaaaaa.
Tell me, tell me, tell me the answer.
I wish I were a bar room dancer. Uh, Uh, Uh.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:06 - ID#263259)
Three links
Bart: if you could, treat this as deep background information having to do with an age old argument. As you know from your history lessons the ancient Celts had only two articles of personal wealth, their gold jewelry and their swords.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:06 - ID#57232)
@Home- ANOTHER's Comments
ANOTHER: Appreciate your 21:52 post. Perhaps you can clarify some things. First, I do agree with you that virtually all currencies in use are being compared to each other, and not to gold. It is also true that the USdollar is effectively being used as the world's currency, very much like the British pound was being used before 1932. I think there is reason to compare what happened to the British pound to what will happen to the dollar. As I recall, during the crises of that time, the value of the British pound dropped rapidly, making it no longer suitable as the world's currency. I would expect that, at that time, there was turmoil in other currencies as well, but that the blame could be placed on the British pound as the cause of the world financial/economic troubles of the time. I believe also at that time, much of the world's gold was moving to the US -- soon to be the new world's currency.
I do not understand why this scenario -- where the US dollar replaces the role of the British pound, and some other country ( or countries ) receiving the gold from debtor countries replaces the role of the US -- does not apply. I would guess that the US dollar will remain the world's premier currency until instabilities in the US$ force everyone to choose another medium of exchange. Personally, I would prefer a basket of currencies, tied to a hard currency if possible right now, because the longer the USdollar is the world's premier currency, the more likely the dollar will eventually fail.
I think a period of inflation followed by sudden deflation would be far more likely for certain of the world's currencies. This is already happening in SE Asia. I cannot believe there will be no inflation or deflation. Even a complete currency collapse would be deflationary, so I think whatever comes can be described as either inflationary or deflationary, irrespective of how short each period is.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:07 - ID#253159)

average JOE
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:08 - ID#256357)
@don't fuk with me

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:08 - ID#408152)
in sacramento
Average Joe: Granville, I thought you said you were never coming back.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:09 - ID#7568)

My opposition to guns is not a deep philosophical or moral one. It is simply based upon the idea that I believe I and my family would be better off if there were none owned. As for banning sticks, rocks and knives, well thats kind of silly isn't it.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:10 - ID#431263)
LIONS GET THROWN TO THE CHRISTIANS! PACKERS 20 LIONS 10 Bring on dem Vikings, Buckheads and Cowgirls!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:10 - ID#394180)
Halloo, Average Joe. Tell me, wat tis "AZZ WIPE".
Do you own some?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:12 - ID#30116)
Oldman -- The issue is never, 'debated'. This fine state of Mass. is trying to pass some kind of a death penalty. Before that can be done, the Libs must insert every conceivable means of class distinction. Such as a special case to be made for the murder of police, murders of children, etc. Divide and conquer applies here too. Why do we need SPECIAL CLASSES FROM THOSE WHO PROFESS NO CLASS DISTINCTION? As usual, double speak and double think.

Heres a radical idea, if you commit premeditated murder, you get executed. Simple.

Also, I hate it when people mix the words murder and kill. THEY ARE NOT THE SAME!

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:12 - ID#255151)

A. Goose--A bag of junk silver is about 720 ounces of silver content. Consists of pre-65 halves, quarters and dimes totaling $1000 face value. Weighs about 70 pounds. I am sure you could buy smaller amounts, but would have more markup.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:13 - ID#286199)
Lurker: Anyone sick or immature enough to post as a brutal murderer will not be treated lightly. If you post as Manson, then I'll call you Manson and treat you like Manson. Fair enough?

Oldman: Point taken. As usual you are right.

Panda: Keep 'em pinned down, I'm calling it a day.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:15 - ID#194225)
@a serious note
FDPMX and FSAGX were only only off a fraction on Friday, out of sync with bullion prices which dropped $4 or so. Why?? I also noticed that Tuesday, when AU rebounded, they did not come back very far at all. Is it possible that Fidelity has gone to a large cash position for a short time?? Or are there certain "delays" associated with their arriving at a close-of-day NAV? I read in today's Washington Post that there is some controversy over the way Fidelity computes end-of-day during volatile times.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:15 - ID#57232)
D.A., Oldman, George Cole, RJ: Can I entice you to switch to another favorite topic -- gold? We now hear that people are starting to buy gold coins -- the Germans now as well -- but that gold bullion is still bearish. Any idea how much longer, and how low gold will go? My biggest problem is what will the encore be after that bombshell about the Swiss selling 1/2 of their gold. One can cry wolf just so many times! On the other hand, if the gold traders honestly believe that Switzerland could sell 1/2 of their gold, then we could indeed have a continued bear market in gold. I think one other item that will hurt is that one can only buy gold if you have cash on hand. It is too late for many SE Asians to buy gold, because they do not have the wealth to do so -- but the people in other countries that are relatively unscathed ( such as Germany ) could do so.
Comments? Ideas?

Yellow Peril
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:16 - ID#23345)
average JOE your old man should a emptied his bags outside before
he came inside your mums room.

average JOE
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:16 - ID#256357)
@say goodbye to kitco assholes

Kitco Cop
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:17 - ID#265342)
GET OFF THIS SITE or I'll punch your lights out! You sorry excuse for a human being.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:17 - ID#173274)
@the scene
D.A. -- Yup. Banning knives, sticks and stones would be downright silly. About as silly and useful as banning guns.

Na Hearadh
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:17 - ID#352180)
Ron, I thought Sharon Tate was packin' 44's.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:18 - ID#386276)
If the attacker has a gun, why sure I'd want a bigger one than him to protect myself.
But if no one had them, then there would not be the problem.
Those Rwandians would have been very greatful if their oppressors had no guns.
I know that this arguement is illogical, because people will never give up their rights to act as they think best.
When one has to walk the streets in fear, then one needs to be well protected, even just to assuage their own fears.
If there is no fear on the streets, then one could walk with confidence, and not need to be armed.
I prefer the no gun scenario, but realise that this is purely wishfull thinking on my part.
When I was 22 years old, I had to jump over the side of a boat, swim underneath it and surface under a wharf, to slip away into the night.
This was because of some rednecks, who had a belly full of piss, thought it would be good fun to spook a young man.
They were taking potshots at me as I dived under the water.
Sure I could have had a bigger gun, but then they could have had none.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:18 - ID#31868)
JTF: Without more point specific input from Another, english allows for too many variant possibilities. I think what is being represented very simply is that US$ and or any paper instrument is worthless due to the fact that there is no rule of law. Therfore that which dictates value is that which need not be discussed. Hence, gold is gold, oil is oil. so forth and so on. Boiling it down to the clearest denominator, if you and I are dead, oil is still oil, gold is still gold.

Perceived value as I understand at best, what Another is presenting in thought and words, is what gain, benefit, to what ends, kind of thinking which represents that which can be exchanged for x.

I think Kiwi put it best the other day. We have not strayed far from the cave. Another is just saying it another way, no pun intended.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:21 - ID#30116)
@Good night all!
D.A. -- One final comment on the firearms issue. There are over 200 millions firearms in existence in the U.S. It' sort of like grains of sand on the beach, already. In the end, the issue will be, who are we going to call a criminal?

If I default on my mortgage, I get a lousy credit rating. If I default on my taxes, I become a criminal, subject to prosecution. It's all in who has the 'power'. As Mao said, "Power flows from the end of a barrel..."

Good night all!

Gold going up? What's wrong with this picture?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:23 - ID#194225)
@the Washington Compost
Was Fidelity Really Fair?

Fidelity Investments, on the other hand, rankled some of its clients with a little-publicized policy about how it prices its funds.

When William Faller, a 33-year-old civilian employee of the Naval Surface
Warfare Center, heard the news on Tuesday that Asian stocks had plummeted, he did what many other heads-up mutual fund shareholders
tried to do -- buy the dip.

Through his retirement fund, Faller had access to a variety of funds
sponsored by Fidelity, the world's biggest fund complex. He said he rang up his Fidelity rep and told him he wanted to invest about $20,000 in Fidelity's Hong Kong and China fund. Faller reasoned that Asia remained a good long-term bet and that Tuesday's panic would allow him to get invested at a fire sale price before stock prices rebounded.

He could see Tuesday that stocks in New York were rallying and he
expected Hong Kong to follow that bullish lead when it reopened for trading again on Wednesday. He aimed to do what the pros on Wall Street call "arbitrage" -- take advantage of disparate prices between the fund and the underlying stocks in the fund's portfolio.

But Fidelity was too smart for him. It turns out that Fidelity has a little-known policy allowing the company to stop Faller and thousands of others like him from taking advantage of sharp declines in overseas funds. Fidelity valued shares in the Hong Kong and China fund based not on their Tuesday closing prices overseas, but instead on what the company deemed their "fair value" as of the end of the trading day in New York.

Fidelity's fair value was higher than the net asset value ( NAV ) would have been, based on Tuesday's actual closing prices of the securities in the fund's portfolio. Fidelity based its higher NAV on internal estimates and prices of Hong Kong securities trading in New York later that day.

The upshot was Faller ended up paying more for his shares in the fund.
He discovered later in the week that on Tuesday he paid $10.88 per share of the Hong Kong and China fund, not the $9.70 he figured the fund's NAV
would be, based on Hong Kong's Tuesday close. In fact, he paid even more
than he would have if he had bought the fund Monday before the big slide in Hong Kong -- $10.86.

Faller is disappointed and angry about this incongruous turn of events.

"I feel I was cheated," he said. "The fund should have been priced on the
underlying market." He estimates he missed out on a $3,000 gain when
Hong Kong stocks rallied later in the week.

Faller was not alone in being prevented from making the most of the
opportunity. Fidelity said that about $20 million flowed into the fund on
Tuesday from like-minded investors.

David B. Jones, Fidelity's man in charge of valuation policy, said the
company's "fair value" prices represent "our best estimate" of what an
investor would expect to pay if he or she tried to buy the stocks in the
fund's portfolio as of 4 p.m. Eastern time Tuesday.

He added that the policy also protects long-term shareholders from having
to bear the costs of short-term trading. In the case of the Hong Kong and
China fund, Fidelity also charges short-timers a 1.5 percent exit fee.
"When a major market event occurs after trading has ended in a local
market, we are required to evaluate whether those local prices should be
adjusted," he said. "The discretion comes in whether the evaluation is
necessary and to what extent. There was no question Tuesday that Hong
Kong stocks had traded up after the close in Hong Kong."

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:23 - ID#408152)
in sacramento
D.A.: There is much room for sincere disagreement on the gun issue. And I certainly won't question your own heartfelt sincerity on this. But I've never heard anyone imply the founding fathers suffered from paranoid insanity. Most credit them with being very wise men, indeed.

average JOE
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:24 - ID#256357)

Gold bug
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:24 - ID#424159)
@ below average JOE

Gold Bug
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:27 - ID#424159)
@ Way below average JOE
Are you retarded? or just STUPID

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:28 - ID#7568)

As longs as we are going for inflamatory off topic discussions tonight how about this. Suppose the state which is after all the 'people' erroneously convicts and then executes a citizen ( as has happened many times in the past ) . Should any representitives of the state then be executed for this murder? How about the following idea. Suppose that after it was shown that the state incorrectly prosecuted and then executed an innocent man there was then a statewide lottery. Whoever got the 'winning' ticket would then be executed to make up for mistake.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:29 - ID#20135)
Thanks Auric. Can't wait to pick one up. ( ha ha )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:29 - ID#194225)
gold $312.60

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:31 - ID#255284)
Tolerant1, Ron, Silver, 223, Spudmaster
Not yet caught up on all postings, in the meatime;

Tolerant1 I agree, --- we would never agree if we talked all night ( Jerry Jeff Walker ) I read everything, and similarly am grateful for your posts.

Ron, agree it is an internal matter, my post was a further response to Spud Masters post yesterday. It is just that your founding fathers started you off on this track, understandably, because of your history, but, I do believe it will be Americas Nemesis.

Silver I have no doubt that if I lived in America I would own a gun. I would have to. You all ( almost ) have one, and, present company excepted, there are some real loonies in the USA and many are armed. Owning a gun is the rational thing to do if you are living in the USA. What does that say about your society, and about your other precious freedoms?

Not owning a gun ( for self-defence ) is the rational thing to do when there are few guns owned for offence or self-defence.

223 I pretended nothing else, amigo, my post *was* my prejudices, presented to highlight opposing prejudices, those contained by you and your fellow countrymen. No more, no less.

Spud Man I liked your parody of my post, thank you, the sign of an happy man, humour.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:32 - ID#31868)
Nick: Line 11 of your last post, therein lies the problem. I agree.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:32 - ID#57232)
@Home -- A Goose - The Saudis and Boeing
A. Goose, Nick ( @Aussie ) : That post about the Saudis not being able to pay for the Boeing aircraft is interesting. Do you think the good old US of A will offer them a loan? I think the long term outcome is clear if the US dollar is used all over the world to bail out other countries and currencies -- inflation! This may take as long as a year to become evident what the degree of damage will be. My guess is that Oil prices will rise, and gold prices will rise, even without a war. Once the price of oil reaches a certain critical point we will have a worldwide recession or worse-- and then we will have our crisis.
The only way the US can avoid the worst is to step down as the world's currency -- but that does not seem to be in the cards.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:35 - ID#227238)
All: For the life of me, I cannot understand the enmity this site attracts. The drumbeat of personal attacks and the unrelenting villification of ideas and those espouse them is becoming overpowering.

Perhaps there is an increasing sense of dis - ease on the part of those who fear that a favorite and easily understood way of life and investing is slowly coming to an end. Thus they feel compelled to confuse messenger and message. Whatever the case, it would be much nicer if those who feel some urge to dissuade us from our collective folly, would decamp, post haste, and carry their evangelical spirit to a site where it would be more appreciated. ...... Most especially the latest cretin who is incapable of forming complete sentences or avoiding the most vile sort of language.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:36 - ID#162148)
almost gone
panda: Ayn Rand said in "Atlas Shrugged" that since governments were not really good at anything but prosecuting people, they would keep passing more and more laws, thus manufacturing more and more criminals to prosecute. A screwed up lady, but a genius nonetheless. D.A.: Be careful with your statistics, unless you've read the work of our FSU professor, who found over a million instances annually where civilian gun possession stopped a crime. Inter-country comparisons are a little iffy, too, but they become a little "touchy" in these politically correct times. Suffice it to say that the rate of violent crime among the well-armed Americans of German descent is not different to a statistically significant degree from their gunless cousins in the old country. West Virginia, where I spent a lot of my youth, has the lowest violent crime rate in the country, even though almost every boy is taught to shoot long before he shaves. Violent crime rates in the various states in this country are negatively correlated with civilian gun ownership. Demographics are the answer. Goodnite all. I'm now outnumbered.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:38 - ID#57232)
Aurator: Did you see Ted's posts about the whales? He didn't see any this year, but did at this time last year? Do you think we need to call out the "Save the Earth Team" to round up all the whales before they cause the earth to wobble? Can't be sure about that can we -- if we can worry about the ozone layer, we can certainly worry about this too! Unfortunately, the "Save the Whales Team" might get in the way!
Hope things are going well in your neck of the woods.

The Latest CRETIN
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:38 - ID#364321)
@ earl
Get lost earl

Who Cares
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:40 - ID#244209)
Average Joe

Joe, could you please spell your profanity correctly?

It's not that Kitco draws a greater-than-average amount of
enimity. Quite the opposite. Kitco is a cut above most
of the regular newsgroups.

It's just the way people are. It would be foolish to believe
that Average Joe wouldn't respect a .45, be he in Australia or
the U.S. : )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:42 - ID#7568)

I have never read the discussions at the constitutional convention centered about the second amendment so I am in no position to comment upon the intent of the framers. I do know that the second amendment does first say that "a well regulated militia being necessary to the security of the state ...". The straightforward reading of this amendment is something to the effect that because we need a citizens army the citizens must have the right to carry arms. The fact that we now have a professional army seems to abrogate the need for the citizens to be locked and loaded. In any event the second amendment doesn't say anything to the effect that our citizens should be armed so that the goverment will not be in a position to move against them. If this was in fact discussed at the time I would be interested in reading about it.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:43 - ID#31868)
Earl: Well said.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:45 - ID#227238)
Nick: I've been out all day and just spent the last hour catching up. ... In response to your earlier post ( 11:xx AM ) , by all means post those charts. ........ Perhaps, I missed something but I did not see a correlation in the charts you posted earlier. ..... With one possible exception: the inverse relation between gold and the oil. ... Might we assume that the oil chart would have been more aggressive to the upside if "Another's" ideas were not in force?????

Nonetheless, your efforts are not unappreciated on this end.

The Latest CRETIN
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:45 - ID#364321)
@ Tolerant1

The Major
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:47 - ID#372425)
@Too Old To Rock And Roll/Too Young To Die.
I believe every person without a record of violence should have the right
to own one gun.I also believe the type of gun should be a consideration
and mandatory firearm safety should be included in the requirements.Would
this be acceptable to the masses?If not,why?

To JTF:The lesson learned here is,many of those people in those troubled
countries are likely wishing they had bought gold before their crises
started.It's a little late once the S*it has hit the rotating blades.Like
those people who were buying gold at 800$ and then looked up and said
gold was a bad investment.The trick is simply to buy when things are good
for the times when things are bad.Unfortunately,many think the good times
will go on forever and don't look far enough ahead.I know..I know..sounds
tooooooo simple..but thats the is simple.What I find most
unfortunate is the media's unwillingness to educate and the institution's
propensity to deny there are problems till it's too late.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:47 - ID#263259)
State of Denial
Aurator re 23:31 post. Ah, compadre! We understand one another! BTW my three links post was to some numbers on the subject.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:48 - ID#57232)
tolerant1: Your 23:18. If that is what ANOTHER is saying, than I can understand it. But I wish he would be more explicit.
You see, if the dollar vanishes completely as a medium of exchange -- I would call that massive deflation. I don't think that will happen as long as we have coins and paper currency -- but -- watch out when everything is plastic!
Saying "gold is gold, and oil is oil" is saying the same thing as massive currency deflation. I think ANOTHER really is attempting to tell us something -- I just wish he would tell it "straight out", as they say, instead of speaking in riddles.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:48 - ID#162148)
once more
D.D.: Several of the founders, including a few that later became president, including jefferson, said precisely that. I can supply you with the citations, if you doubt it. Gone for the night. Sleepy.

Who Cares
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:49 - ID#244209)

First we get Aurator parroting gun control propaganda that many
of us are already aware of ( I thank .223 for posting the references
to Aurator's "statistics" ) , which is based on deceitful manipulation
of statistics.

Then we get D.A. intrepreting the Second Amendment based on
language that has changed over the past 200 years.

Look, pals in foreign countries, all of this has already been
hashed out, including the fallacious argument about "nuclear
weapons". You know not of what you speak. Read talk.politics.guns,
all of this shows up on a regular basis.

The real reason that tonight's commentary is revolving around guns
is because the Crash has, for now, been quelled. : )

I say y'all should turn your gold into the government for safe-keeping.
It's guys like y'all that are driving the price down with your
panic selling. : )

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:49 - ID#335190)
Unions @ Not Guns & Not Gold Maybe of interest ?????
November 2, 1997
Wal-Mart Canada employees reject contract

TORONTO, Nov 2 ( Reuters ) - Employees at Wal-Mart Stores Inc's first-ever unionized store in Windsor, Ontario voted on Sunday to reject a tentative labor deal reached last week between the United Steelworkers of America and the world's largest retailer.
Wal-Mart spokesman Edward Gould said 60 percent of the store's 170 unionized employees voted against the labor deal, which had been recommended for acceptance by the union.

"Obviously today's decision represents the decision of the associates in the store...what happens next is really up to the union. Wal-Mart would be very happy to return to the bargaining table," Gould told Reuters.

Union officials could not be reached for comment.

The Steelworkers won the right to represent the employees at the store after the Ontario Labor Relations Board overturned a vote by workers against certification.

In its decision, the board said workers had been intimidated by Wal-Mart management prior to the vote in May. The Ontario Court of Appeal later quashed the retailer's application for a judicial review of the Labor Board decision.

Since its founding in 1962, Bentonville, Ark.-based Wal-Mart has successfully fought off every other attempt to unionize its roughly 3,000 stores worldwide.

can you believe this crap
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:51 - ID#334174)
@another blast of HOT AIR
I hang on every word ANOTHER utters ( HAHAHAHAHAHA )

average JOE
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:53 - ID#256357)
@get fuked

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:55 - ID#239153)
that hurts
to average joe

Sticks and stones may break my bones, but names will never hurt me.

average JOE
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:56 - ID#256357)

The Major
(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:57 - ID#372425)
@Thanks Too Nick
Sorry Nick.I really appreciated those charts too.The main correlation
appears to be the US$.The oil price is not as pronounced against the gold
price as I would have thought.Now if you were to have the rate of inflation on that chart it would get real interesting.Looks like gold is
heavily oversold,but hey,were in a new paradigim ( sp ) ,remember?Thanks

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:57 - ID#31868)
D.A.: Professional? A government who pays volunteers? At best a four year change of political belief and or supposed public opinion, should not be that wherein the citizens of any nation give up their singular right to defend that which now is now unacceptable.

Professionals get paid to do a job. Do this and get paid, regardless.

Citizens pay into the system but reserve all rights to remain independent.

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:57 - ID#57232)
Goodnight all: Good thing we're all well separated tonight. Does the Kitco commotion indicator predict trouble in the markets next week?

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:57 - ID#386276)
Not sure but I think you are refering to these charts.
Have a gander at 87 & 29 crashes. The ones with the fibo series.
In the '29 chart, the fibo alludes to a depression.
In the '87 chart, the fibo seems to say that it was just a big blow off as we head a lot higher.
This period was a high inflation period, and I tend to think that a little of the excess steam was being let off.
Currently I think that we are more likely to turn to a '29 style depression, as we have now reached the pinnacles of our excesses.

Dow, Transports, Utilities monthly '82 to '97

Dow monthly '29 - bollinger bands - log scale

Dow monthly '82 to '97 - bollinger bands - log scale

Dow weekly '97 - bollinger bands - log scale

Dow weekly short term '97 - bollinger bands - log scale

Dow weekly '87 to '97 - buy/sell indicator

Dow daily '95 to '97 - buy/sell indicator

Dow daily '97 - buy/sell indicator showing divergence

Dow weekly '29 - moving average exponential - fibonacci sequence

Dow weekly '87 - moving average exponential - fibonacci sequence

Dow monthly '82 to '97 - moving average exponential - fibonacci sequence

Dow daily short term '97 - moving average exponential - fibonacci sequence

Medium term swing chart - adv/dec/unc -

(Sun Nov 02 1997 23:58 - ID#38970)
Where are the men?


If you can keep your head when all about you
are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
but make allowance for their doubting, too,
if you can wait and not be tired of waiting,
or being lied about, dont deal in lies,
or being hated, dont give way to hating,
and yet, dont look too good nor talk too wise.

If you can dream, and not make dreams your master,
if you can think, and not make thoughts your aim,
if you can meet with triumph and disaster,
and treat those two impostors just the same,
if you can bear to hear the truth youve spoken
twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
and stoop and build em up with worn-out tools,

If you can make one heap of all you winnings,
and risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
and lose, and start again at your beginnings,
and never breathe one word about your loss,
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
to serve your turn long after they are gone,
and so hold on when there is nothing in you
except the will that says to them: hold on!

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
or walk with kings, nor lose the common touch,
if neither foe nor loving friend can hurt you,
if all men count with you, but none too much,
if you can fill the unforgiving minute
with sixty seconds worth of distance run,
yours is the Earth, and everything thats in it,
and - which is more - youll be a man, my son!

Rudyard Kipling