Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:00 - ID#364321)
Hope you have a NIGHTMARE

Who Cares
(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:02 - ID#244209)
The Pinnacle of our Excess

We've reached the pinnacle of our excess?

I don't think so. I'm pretty heartened by the fact that 30-year
rates are down to 6.2%. If Uncle Sam can just break that 6%
barrier, I say we have a good shot at making it for two more years,
at which point Silicon Valley can be blamed for the Crash, and
converted into a fourth branch of Government with little outcry. : )

And I don't think it's unreasonable to focus on the DOW so much.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:04 - ID#335190)
True @ True
average JOE: Be a good Citizen, and stand on the high side. Your enemy is not at this site, keep to the right. : ) : ) : ) : )

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:06 - ID#402127)

Who Cares, what do you think of Y2K? I believe the system will continue to function perfectly.

Who Cares
(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:12 - ID#244209)
Joe-Hova Witnesses

I think Y2K is a convienent scapegoat for a Crash, and resulting
elimination of false paper wealth. : )

Joe, Joe, Joe. 'C'. Please, spell it with a 'C'. I would rather
be giving a blowjob, but my wife is in Toronto at the moment. Please,
Joe, potential employers judge you by your apparent educational

It would hardly do to hire a low-class thug that can't swear
correctly. : )

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:22 - ID#202318)
on the edge
Hey, average Joe! Why don't you get yout sorry ass to bed and be ready for your low-dow life tomorrow morning? Nobody wants to listen to your garbage ( I think ) !!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:22 - ID#267277)
average joe
My response to your nonsense is just exactly what
I think of you and your intellect and that is

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:25 - ID#402127)

You should look for a way to identify the disruptive posters. E mail can be traced. The record could then be given out publicly on the internet or shown to their employer. I will look into it.

average JOE
(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:26 - ID#256357)
@need answers

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:28 - ID#408152)
in sacramento
D.A.: The founding fathers hotly debated inclusion of the second amendment in the Constitution. The final wording and success of the amendment were, as with many other things in the constitution, the result of a compromise struck between opposing forces at the convention. Nevertheless, a very good argument can be made that, even with the watered-down language, it was intended to give individuals the unqualified right to keep and bear arms. Will try to dig up some quotes and references for you ( and I promise to be fair and not to exclude those that would weaken the pro-second amendment view ) . Meantime, you've given me an opportunity to attach the following wonderful analysis of the meaning and grammar of the amendment.



by J. Neil Schulman

If you wanted to know all about the Big Bang, you'd ring up Carl
Sagan, right? And if you wanted to know about desert warfare, the man
to call would be Norman Schwarzkopf, no question about it. But who
would you call if you wanted the top expert on American usage, to tell
you the meaning of the Second Amendment to the United States

That was the question I asked A.C. Brocki, editorial coordinator of
the Los Angeles Unified School District and formerly senior editor at
Houghton Mifflin Publishers -- who himself had been recommended to me
as the foremost expert on English usage in the Los Angeles school
system. Mr. Brocki told me to get in touch with Roy Copperud, a
retired professor of journalism at the University of Southern
California and the author of "American Usage and Style: The

A little research lent support to Brocki's opinion of Professor
Copperud's expertise.

Roy Copperud was a newspaper writer on major dailies for over three
decades before embarking on a distinguished 17-year career teaching
journalism at USC. Since 1952, Copperud has been writing a column
dealing with the professional aspects of journalism for "Editor and
Publisher", a weekly magazine focusing on the journalism field.

He's on the usage panel of the American Heritage Dictionary, and
Merriam Webster's Usage Dictionary frequently cites him as an expert.
Copperud's fifth book on usage, "American Usage and Style: The
Consensus," has been in continuous print from Van Nostrand Reinhold
since 1981, and is the winner of the Association of American
Publisher's Humanities Award.

That sounds like an expert to me.

After a brief telephone call to Professor Copperud in which I
introduced myself but did not give him any indication of why I was
interested, I sent the following letter:

"I am writing you to ask you for your professional opinion as an
expert in English usage, to analyze the text of the Second Amendment
to the United States Constitution, and extract the intent from the

"The text of the Second Amendment is, 'A well-regulated Militia, being
necessary for the security of a free State, the right of the people to
keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.'

"The debate over this amendment has been whether the first part of the
sentence, 'A well-regulated Militia, being necessary to the security
of a free State', is a restrictive clause or a subordinate clause,
with respect to the independent clause containing the subject of the
sentence, 'the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be

"I would request that your analysis of this sentence not take into
consideration issues of political impact or public policy, but be
restricted entirely to a linguistic analysis of its meaning and
intent. Further, since your professional analysis will likely become
part of litigation regarding the consequences of the Second Amendment,
I ask that whatever analysis you make be a professional opinion that
you would be willing to stand behind with your reputation, and even be
willing to testify under oath to support, if necessary."

My letter framed several questions about the text of the Second
Amendment, then concluded:

"I realize that I am asking you to take on a major responsibility and
task with this letter. I am doing so because, as a citizen, I believe
it is vitally important to extract the actual meaning of the Second
Amendment. While I ask that your analysis not be affected by the
political importance of its results, I ask that you do this because of
that importance."

After several more letters and phone calls, in which we discussed
terms for his doing such an analysis, but in which we never discussed
either of our opinions regarding the Second Amendment, gun control, or
any other political subject, Professor Copperud sent me the follow
analysis ( into which I have inserted my questions for the sake of
clarity ) :

[Copperud:] "The words 'A well-regulated militia, being necessary to
the security of a free state,' contrary to the interpretation cited in
your letter of July 26, 1991, constitutes a present participle, rather
than a clause. It is used as an adjective, modifying 'militia,' which
is followed by the main clause of the sentence ( subject 'the right',
verb 'shall' ) . The 'to keep and bear arms' is asserted as an
essential for maintaining a militia.

"In reply to your numbered questions:

[Schulman:] " ( 1 ) Can the sentence be interpreted to grant the right to
keep and bear arms solely to 'a well-regulated militia'?"

[Copperud:] " ( 1 ) The sentence does not restrict the right to keep and
bear arms, nor does it state or imply possession of the right
elsewhere or by others than the people; it simply makes a positive
statement with respect to a right of the people."

[Schulman:] " ( 2 ) Is 'the right of the people to keep and bear arms'
granted by the words of the Second Amendment, or does the Second
Amendment assume a preexisting right of the people to keep and bear
arms, and merely state that such right 'shall not be infringed'?"

[Copperud:] " ( 2 ) The right is not granted by the amendment; its
existence is assumed. The thrust of the sentence is that the right
shall be preserved inviolate for the sake of ensuring a militia."

[Schulman:] " ( 3 ) Is the right of the people to keep and bear arms
conditioned upon whether or not a well regulated militia is, in fact,
necessary to the security of a free State, and if that condition is
not existing, is the statement 'the right of the people to keep and
bear Arms, shall not be infringed' null and void?"

[Copperud:] " ( 3 ) No such condition is expressed or implied. The right
to keep and bear arms is not said by the amendment to depend on the
existence of a militia. No condition is stated or implied as to the
relation of the right to keep and bear arms and to the necessity of a
well-regulated militia as a requisite to the security of a free state.
The right to keep and bear arms is deemed unconditional by the entire

[Schulman:] " ( 4 ) Does the clause 'A well-regulated Militia, being
necessary to the security of a free State,' grant a right to the
government to place conditions on the 'right of the people to keep and
bear arms,' or is such right deemed unconditional by the meaning of
the entire sentence?"

[Copperud:] " ( 4 ) The right is assumed to exist and to be
unconditional, as previously stated. It is invoked here specifically
for the sake of the militia."

[Schulman:] " ( 5 ) Which of the following does the phrase
'well-regulated militia' mean: 'well-equipped', 'well-organized,'
'well-drilled,' 'well-educated,' or 'subject to regulations of a
superior authority'?"

[Copperud:] " ( 5 ) The phrase means 'subject to regulations of a
superior authority;' this accords with the desire of the writers for
civilian control over the military."

[Schulman:] " ( 6 ) ( If at all possible, I would ask you to take account
of the changed meanings of words, or usage, since that sentence was
written 200 years ago, but not take into account historical
interpretations of the intents of the authors, unless those issues can
be clearly separated."

[Copperud:] "To the best of my knowledge, there has been no change in
the meaning of words or in usage that would affect the meaning of the
amendment. If it were written today, it might be put: "Since a
well-regulated militia is necessary to the security of a free state,
the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be abridged.'

[Schulman:] "As a 'scientific control' on this analysis, I would also
appreciate it if you could compare your analysis of the text of the
Second Amendment to the following sentence,

"A well-schooled electorate, being necessary to the security of a free
State, the right of the people to keep and read Books, shall not be

"My questions for the usage analysis of this sentence would be:

" ( 1 ) Is the grammatical structure and usage of this sentence and the
way the words modify each other, identical to the Second Amendment's
sentence?; and

" ( 2 ) Could this sentence be interpreted to restrict 'the right of the
people to keep and read Books' _only_ to 'a well-educated electorate'
-- for example, registered voters with a high-school diploma?"

[Copperud:] " ( 1 ) Your 'scientific control' sentence precisely
parallels the amendment in grammatical structure.

" ( 2 ) There is nothing in your sentence that either indicates or
implies the possibility of a restricted interpretation."

Professor Copperud had only one additional comment, which he placed in
his cover letter: "With well-known human curiosity, I made some
speculative efforts to decide how the material might be used, but was
unable to reach any conclusion."

So now we have been told by one of the top experts on American usage
what many knew all along: the Constitution of the United States
unconditionally protects the people's right to keep and bear arms,
forbidding all governments formed under the Constitution from
abridging that right.

As I write this, the attempted coup against constitutional government
in the Soviet Union has failed, apparently because the will of the
people in that part of the world to be free from capricious tyranny is
stronger than the old guard's desire to maintain a monopoly on
dictatorial power.

And here in the United States, elected lawmakers, judges, and
appointed officials who are pledged to defend the Constitution of the
United States ignore, marginalize, or prevaricate about the Second
Amendment routinely. American citizens are put in American prisons for
carrying arms, owning arms of forbidden sorts, or failing to satisfy
bureaucratic requirements regarding the owning and carrying of
firearms -- all of which is an abridgement of the unconditional right
of the people to keep and bear arms, guaranteed by the Constitution.

And even the American Civil Liberties Union ( ACLU ) , staunch defender
of the rest of the Bill of Rights, stands by and does nothing.

It seems it is up to those who believe in the right to keep and bear
arms to preserve that right. No one else will. No one else can.
Will we beg our elected representatives not to take away our rights,
and continue regarding them as representing us if they do? Will we
continue obeying judges who decide that the Second Amendment doesn't
mean what it says it means but means whatever they say it means in
their Orwellian doublespeak?

Or will we simply keep and bear the arms of our choice, as the
Constitution of the United States promises us we can, and pledge that
we will defend that promise with our lives, our fortunes, and our
sacred honor?


( C ) 1991 by The New Gun Week and Second Amendment Foundation.
Informational reproduction of the entire article is hereby authorized
provided the author, The New Gun Week and Second Amendment Foundation
are credited. All other rights reserved.

About the Author

J. Neil Schulman is the award-winning author of novels endorsed by
Anthony Burgess and Nobel-economist Milton Friedman, and writer of the
CBS "Twilight Zone" episode in which a time-traveling historian
prevents the JFK assassination. He's also the founder and president
of SoftServ Publishing, the first publishing company to distribute
"paperless books" via personal computers and modems.

Most recently, Schulman has founded the Committee to Enforce the
Second Amendment ( CESA ) , through which he intends to see the
individual's right to keep and bear arms recognized as a
constitutional protection equal to those afforded in the First,
Fourth, Fifth, Ninth and Fourteenth amendments.

J. Neil Schulman may be reached through: The SoftServ Paperless
Bookstore, 24-hour bbs: 213-827-3160 ( up to 9600 baud ) . Mail address:
PO Box 94, Long Beach, CA 90801-0094. GEnie address: SOFTSERV

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:31 - ID#227238)
Nick: Thanks. I am unable to access the last 3 at the moment. I was tempted to compare recent action to summer 96 but that was all contained inside the B bands and the momentum was not anything like the present.

Are you able to apply the same indicators to daily data for the period immediately prior to the 29 unpleasantness? ....... The one thing that bothers me the most about a reprise of 29 is that too many people are saying it and expecting it. Additionally, the investment dynamic is different now. Margin is 50% vs 10%. Most of the individual money is in the hands of "professional management" and not directly leveraged ( ignoring the second mortgage & etc. ) . ...... That a wipeout is in the cards, I'm as certain of it as you are. We are merely discussing the end game mechanism and I'm still not convinced of a sudden dislocation.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:40 - ID#335190)
average JOE @ Getting by
**The Battle Cry of Poverty**
Hundreds of thousands of Mr. and Mrs. Grossups of every age, trade, creed, national origin, and political belief were coming together to fight the depression in 1932.

As they changed, they changed the country. They transformed America from a place of despair to a country of struggle. They astonished themselves, not only by their courage and their militance but by the swiftness with which they learned, throwing aside old beliefs and habits which had brought them nothing but disaster.

There were times that a man learned more in an hour about what makes the world go than he had learned previously in a lifetime.

"Don't Starve---Fight!" The unemployed had left their tenements and kitchens, the four walls in which they had hidden what they thought was their private shame, and their slogan now was "Don't Starve--Fight!"

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:40 - ID#386276)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:41 - ID#227238)
average JOE ( @need answers ) : There is no fair wind for a ship without a port and there are no answers for him who cannot frame the question. There is much that you do need but you'll likely not find it here or anywhere else ..... outside yourself.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:47 - ID#386276)
To my minds eye the indicators are signalling now.
Shall go and do some daily charts of the two periods and post them here.
Notice on the 97 dow fibo indicator how it has formed a zigzag heading down - ominous I think.
Also the weekly buy/sell indicator is flashing signals.
Also will do a fobo series for the period between '29 & '87

Two New Paradigms

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:53 - ID#255284)
hornet's nest
Rattled some cages huh? As i said I would when I first responded to Spud Masters post lost somewhere in these sliced and diced pages of history. No, ( Who Cares ) I have no barrow to push, I was in fact gently objecting ( though that was more apparent in my earlier post ) to Spud Masters rather global assertion concerning the Australian arms amnesty. It appeared that our Spud was plantinghis gun-toting prejudices on us *real* southern boys. I am happy to drop subject, and would dearly love never to see another post at kitco that talks of God, Guns and Gold, I care nothing, but for gold.

oldman, 21:50 I have no agenda, I do not wish to ban guns in USA, it is too late, the horse has bolted, as we say, to close the barn door. The ubiquity of guns in the USA is your Achilles Heel, I assert my prejudice. I merely wish to keep my country, New Zealand away from this tautologous freedom, the right to bear arms.
oldman 23:36 yes, and I understand that is the same true with those of Celtic descent, there are no sizable differences in the numbers of murders comitted by those who are armed and those who are not. However, I believe that the murder rate by and of the Celts is somewhat higher than the German rate. Have you heard of this?

What a crazy place, what a crazy subject, I find myself in agreement with Charles Manson ( 22:07 )

Earl: ( 23:35 ) Exactly. We welcome everyone to our folly, we just ask they read the guidelines and behave with the dignity they would in face-to face interfacing, facing backwards or forwards or even barsackwards whatever their choice.

D.A. Why are you the only American to understand what it might be like to live without the NECESSITY of guns?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 00:59 - ID#335190)
November 2, 1997
A fifth of Hong Kong adults bet on stocks - poll

HONG KONG, Nov 3 ( Reuters ) - One in five Hong Kong adults invest on the stock market, according to a survey published on Monday. Twenty percent of 1,085 respondents in the poll said they invested in the stock market, which could explain why there has been a fall in economic confidence in the territory of 6.5 million people. Since early August, Hong Kong's blue chip Hang Seng Index has dropped more than 36 percent.

Many people are believed to have lost tens of thousands of dollars in the slide, which intensified and turned into a major crash two weeks ago.
Even among people with monthly incomes below HK$13,000 ( US$1,680 ) , some 12 percent had invested in the stock market, compared with only eight percent of those earning between HK$13,000 and HK$20,000 ( US$2,583 ) a month, the poll for the South China Morning Post and Ming Pao newspapers showed.

Meanwhile, 24 percent in the survey, conducted for the newspapers by AC Nielsen SRH, described Hong Kong's economic outlook as good, versus 29 percent in July. Some 26 percent expected an improvement in their economic situation, down four percentage points from July.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 01:01 - ID#408152)
in sacramento
Average Joe: There are many diverse opinions at Kitco. Do you disagree with all of them? If not, you may find that if you take a dispassionate approach and clearly state you objections to the views you find so distasteful, you will win allies and make friends. Otherwise, you will win nothing but the well-deserved contempt and derision of everyone here.

Kommissar KGB
(Mon Nov 03 1997 01:02 - ID#273112)
Average Joe

Komm to Russia, join KGB vee mak you Agent Klass 4. Pay iz goote and you get nice litle female babuska to make you forget all your vorries about the gold and dow.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 01:03 - ID#194225)
24-hour chart shows au plunging - not seen at ebn, etc. ???

(Mon Nov 03 1997 01:04 - ID#335190)
November 3, 1997
FOCUS-Singapore shares rally as Tigers claw back

SINGAPORE, Nov 3 ( Reuters ) - Singapore's Straits Times Industrials ( STI ) Index rose nearly six percent on Monday morning as regional stock markets showed renewed confidence, dealers and analysts said. The cheerful mood, after weeks of gloom, also infected Southeast Asian currencies and most of them rose strongly.

Singapore's Straits Times Industrial Index ( STII ) ended the Monday morning session 5.84 percent higher at 1678.72 points. Total market volume was a hefty 220 million shares, with 409 gainers and 15 losers.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 01:09 - ID#194225)
Vass up?
Kitco has gold spot in freefall. Other sites I can find do not agree. Anybody awake out there?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 01:10 - ID#244207)
Smooth sailing @ Kitco
Bart - whatever you did, you got it right! No more missing date; no more midnight hours time-warp limbo. Except for the chronic swooping down of infantile net-surfers, all is well and life is good. Thanks for your continuing efforts to maintain an important site ( gratis ) for lots of attenuated folks.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Mon Nov 03 1997 01:13 - ID#25867)
George, in response to your question of why you dont see me expressing a viewpoint on the future direction of gold, there are two reasons:

Firstly Kitco is in the business of, amongst other precious metal related activities, selling gold bullion. I would expect our motives would be put into question if I were to use this space to argue that gold is on the way up and its a great time to buy and you should just pick up the phone right now and call 1-800.... The budget for our discussion group is coming from public relations, not from marketing. I think that participation , quality of opinions , and therefore interest in this site would suffer if there was any perception that the discussion forum was actually a veiled sales promotion tool.

Secondly my expertise in the precious metals is in the areas of industrial refining and hedged trading. Days are spent at Kitco buying and selling with a spread in the middle which is a necessity when youre a dealer. Our accounts are mainly industrial and in most cases they dont concern themselves with where the market will be tomorrow and so in effect, neither do we. ( Our promo that explains what we do is at )

Speculating isnt something we normally do since wed be right only half the time at best. Spending time studying what might happen to gold tomorrow isnt nearly as important as making sure that theres enough volume of gold to trade to make today worthwhile.

Dealing and trading the metals is entirely different from technical analysis of the fundamentals affecting the market prices. Wayne Gretzky may be the best player the sport has seen, but he wouldnt be the most distinguished adviser when trying to decide on what new materials could be used to create a lighter, more flexible, and more lethal hockey stick.

None of this means that Im indifferent to the price of gold. Higher prices would benefit everyone in the business of precious metals. The higher the better. If the downward trend continues we will soon be trading an almost valueless commodity and at that point I could only hope that there are good jobs available for experienced web-based discussion group hosts.

Having said all that here is a personal opinion from an experienced precious metals dealer. ( The following viewpoints are those of the author and do not reflect the opinion of Kitco Inc. )

- Consider watching lease rates as a leading indicator. Higher lease rates means an increased demand for the physical metal which is often reflected in the price later
- Consider selling volatility when it is high by shorting out of the money options.
- Consider selling puts as an alternative to buying the underlying.
- Mine shutdowns indicate the bottoming of a market. I think that gold is close to the bottom.
- If you like silver consider buying the 1976 Olympic coin sets. Their face value is almost the same as their silver value.

Bart Kitner
(Mon Nov 03 1997 01:15 - ID#25867)
The last time I checked the header still said "GOLD" discussion. The markets are open now. There's no excuse.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 01:20 - ID#227238)
Nick: That was an excellent link. A must read IMO.

The positive view is basically that of LBG. ...... It assumes that Yankee ingenuity will overcome the worldwide effects of global overcapacity. Tough odds, considering the amount of productive capacity that exists in the Asian world right now. Right or wrong, the argument will be displayed in profitability.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 01:20 - ID#20135)
It has been know to happen on Kitco. Check the chart now. 312.2 +.85 top shows 310.35 -1.00.

shows gold 313.4.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 01:22 - ID#20135)
Oooopss. Top just updated now shows 312.3 +.95. Go Figure. Just blips.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 01:27 - ID#432372)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 01:47 - ID#227238)
Aurator: Forgive me for leaping into your comment to D.A.; in point of fact, all of us would enjoy living in a world that was reasonably safe without the need for protective arms. If you are able to do so in NZ, try to keep it that way.

For whatever reason, crime and those who perpetrate it have been elevated to the status of victim. Punishment is never certain and any discussion of removing arms from known threats to society is only a source of humor. All firearms restrictions, enacted in recent years, have been devoted to tieing the hands of law abiding citizens. Men and women who realize that our govt has abdicated a primary function of any govt; that is the protection of the lives and property of its citizens. The restrictions work to the disadvantage of the law abiding because govt ( at all levels ) is unable or unwilling to devote itself to diminishing the numbers of those who are PROVEN threats to society. Therefore, govt can only appear proactive by confounding the law abiding because it's completely impotent in dealing with it's ture adversary.

Incidently, my wife has a concealed weapons permit and is proficient with short arms. I did not encourage her to do it. It was her choice.

It's sad to relate but the US is not a civilized place to reside.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 02:20 - ID#270112)

Here is whats waiting for the dipsters:

(Mon Nov 03 1997 02:29 - ID#257148)
back to gold
Earl, no need, offence untaken.

All, I asked JM, from whom I buy my precious, being of the belief that trouts are random and that markets behave like village idiots on acid,

"What about krands?" I ask, Unbelievable little fable, it worth upspilling..

"We had a bunch of them from last year, no-one wanted to buy them so we shipped them back to Oz a couple of months ago."

"Just the last couple of weeks we've had a few enquiries so we'll maybe get Oz to send them back."

Yeah right, if there's any left after the Nicks have got into them.

Bart some playground you got here bro.

Kommissar KGB
(Mon Nov 03 1997 02:52 - ID#273112)
DOW (Jones)

Iz kriminal offenze to show vfoto of KGB frogman in Zoviet Russia.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 02:57 - ID#386245)
Auracious -- I've bought all the K'rands in Australia and you can't have 'em back!! Well, maybe for $1000 each.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 03:03 - ID#257148)
i am not alone in this world of 6 billion!!
Nick I knew it was you, were you been? how them bank puts? BSD, and, your pick for the MELBOURNE CUP, link me.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 03:03 - ID#2082)
Nicks at Nite
Why is your dollar spiking right now?? Did you raise interest rates? Vote someone new into office?? What is it?? Huh? Huh?? What is it?? Up 127 ticks globex... kang a roo

evening aurator......

(Mon Nov 03 1997 03:12 - ID#386245)
Aurator -- went down to a coin shop a few weeks ago and asked if they had any gold coins. "SURE WE DO", he said, as he gave me his best used car dealer look. ( Who's this nut case tryin' to buy this worthless stuff, he was thinkin' ) . So he got out a selection of 1oz nuggets, K'rands, bars, wafers, 1/4s, 1/2's 1/10ths-- you name it!!! Stuff had been sittin' in the safe for years!! I said "I'll give you the Oz spot price for the lot!!" He almost fell over himself in gratitude as I pulled out a wad of cash and bought the lot!! "Finally got rid of that worthless stock," he was thinkin'. Would you believe, about half of the coins were PROOF!!! No markup on the fractionals OR the proofs!!! OZ price of gold is holding up extremely well. I'm already far ahead!! Sure am glad nobody wants this worthless stuff!!!!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 03:13 - ID#2082)
Bart your excellence
Thanks for the commentary. This is a rare treat...something must be brewing.......hmmmmmmmmmmm.....

Who Cares - It IS good to read your posts again ( did I just say that? ) . Welcome back. Did you get the job at the ( hospital? ) ....

Gold - are we rallying??? Or are you gonna roll over...I would like to see a little rally before we short again......and again.........and again...........yawn...... bed

Charles Manson
(Mon Nov 03 1997 03:16 - ID#343337)
@home w/ family
I'm outta hear, seeya, arriba durche, hast luego huevos!!!!!

This place is nuts!

Oldman is nuts! He's surely a certifiable lunatic! My gosh, he fantasizes about being a Super Hero. He'd be blown away before he could flinch! Who's this pencil neck trying to fool?

As for my name, I'm not the Manson in prison. I'm older than him and am an engineer and gold bug!

As for that incredible looser, "Speed", he's as looney toons as "oldman".

Where does all the hatred and gun loving stuff come from? A few SICK minds that's where.

Speed, Oldman: You boys are Sick! No concept of a higher order of thinking available to humans.

Oldman, that's a despicable handle; they coined that deragatory word as a sign of disrespect for closed minded, money grubbing, hatred harboring, dull witted, egotistic, wanna be rich Jones, assholes. You fit the bill perfectly you barf excrement.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 03:21 - ID#386245)
G'day EB. Aussie dollar is spiking up 'caus Aussies know that the precious and all the other metals have been oversold and are gonna make them a killing!! OZ $$$ go the same direction as the metals -- only a little earlier. Some smart operators out there know what they're doin'. Ore@ator-- I've been hibernatin', mate. Them damned puts have made me a tonne of dough and now the OZ market is correcting nicely upward I will soon be in for another truckload of 'em!! Dang if this trading isn't fun.
BTW--who stole Nov 1st?? Is the Grinch on the loose again???

(Mon Nov 03 1997 03:25 - ID#257148)
Gamekeeper turned poacher
Vronsky G'day, always a pleasure to read your website.. Butm ahhem, what is this:-

"I may be too old-fashion, but I thought market manipulation was illegal - regardless who the culprit might be... or is it that some are above the LAW?"

I should like to recommend "A Fool and His Money." Martin Baker Orion 1995. Having worked myself "in the regulation game" I can only say that wherever one jurisdiction may be strict in the law, another will not. My edtion of that book was published and bought in the Tax Shelter of Guernsey, Channel Islands.
There are no regulators either in existance or even planned that can exercise any control over this paper-juggernaut ( etym, Hindu look it up, 's bootiful ) . Vronsky, mate the $$ or  or  are out of one country into another and then a third. can you expect regulators at this wild, wild, paper frontier? No-one has ever seen anything like this before. In the words of a Neil Finn Song "History, never repeats, I tell myself, before I go to bed."

Ha ha au au au au aurator

(Mon Nov 03 1997 03:27 - ID#210109)
My my, more emotional outbursts, instead of reasoned conversation. If you can't out argue someone call them names and get angry...that certainly makes you feel better doesn't it?

Am I at Kitco discussion group or it this Kitco Group Therapy??

Disappointed in those who can not talk without emotional outbursts!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 03:33 - ID#386245)
Globex S&P +850, NSDQ 100 -145 ( make up your minds, Yanks!!! ) . OZ $$$ +127---GO GOLD!!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 03:38 - ID#257148)
whose been eating my krands?
Nick it was you! gobbled up all those krands. You is good. & One Awesome story teller Nick!!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 03:40 - ID#319214)
@just lendin' a helpin hand ol' buddy

my my my, jojoj

You're doing the same thing as the whiners. Just ignore them and don't resort to their same immature behavior. Nick and Aurator know how to ignore it. You can learn from them to do the same. It's not hard. Give it a try. Hope this helps!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 03:49 - ID#310407)
@ New week is here, Predictions
OK, here we are, Monday AM. Predictions re-iterated from yesterday. Gold will do poorly this week. DOW will end the week with a gain. Kitco will have plethora of "Conspiracy" and "Manipulation" theories to explain why the markets never move the way Moronic Gloom and Doom analysts say they should. Most importantly, Puetze's nonsensical "crash" during the best economic times in the entire history of our republic, will most certainly NOT HAPPEN!! ( Puny Asian market's influence indeed! )

(Mon Nov 03 1997 04:16 - ID#257148)
If I'm wrong, why, I'll bite ma tongue...
Here's my prediction LGB will p!ss people off again beefoer the next full moon, or at least by the next solar eclipse 1998 Feb 26 17:28

Nite, keep the home fires burnin

We is looking boyo, and we is gonna find, leave it to the team.

Happy gold trails


(Mon Nov 03 1997 04:20 - ID#386245)
Aurator--have just scrolled down to your 00:53 about guns. Knew it was just a matter of time before THAT subject came up on Kitco. What those Northerners don't understand, mate, is that the number of murders with hand guns per annum in OZ and N.Z.,combined would not equal that of a medium-sized American city!!! Why do you think so many Yanks flee their native land and come down under!! I am quite happy to walk the streets of any OZ city at night, unarmed. Not quite as safe as Japan, perhaps, but damned safe compared to many other countries. It is a shame that America has become an armed camp. Were I there, I would be a lot more security conscious than I am now. I lived for many years in the US. I have driven through Watts, Compton, E.LA etc and felt very much uneasy. Aur@ator, just be thankful the rest of the world doesn't know how good it is down here.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 04:25 - ID#386276)
Here are the daily comparisons of the crash's.

Do yourself a fovour and have a look at all the dow30 industrials.
Put them on monthly with candle sticks, for a period of 15 years.
Engage brain and critical eye and tell me that you will go long on this next upleg.
Definition of the sharemarket = transfer of funds from the ignorant to the intelligent.

Good to see you again.
Here's a update of MSCI Global Index.
Morgan Stanley Global World Index

Dow '29 '87 '97 daily

Dow '29 '87 daily

Dow '29 '97 weekly

Dow '29 daily

Dow '87 daily

Dow '97 daily

Dow long term monthly

Dow Europe - Swiss Dax Cac Ftse30 long term - break-away gaps present in all indices

Amex, Nasdaq, NYSE weekly - break-away gaps present in all indices

(Mon Nov 03 1997 04:31 - ID#257148)
my head hurts, my feet stink, and I don't love jesus.
Nick, I am sure BJ will understand.. put the "cat" among the pigeons with that one huh? but it goes back a lot further. Nick, during your hibernation ( koala bear? ) I came to Australia's defence on your gun laws, one of our bellicose goldbugs from the South mouthed off about giving bears the right to rip arms off or something.

They just can't understand, that is why I speached it was the seed of their own demise. Hey, good barb weather, and MELBOURNE CUP???

(Mon Nov 03 1997 04:42 - ID#343175)
Here we go soldiers:

Gold up - silver up - LGB eats crow!

It's official - the bottom for gold and silver is IN and LGB is OUT!

Sorry LGB - but that's the orders from the top! We need to make an example of you!

Soldiers, if you so much as look like, sound like, act like, think like or even smell like LGB, then you don't deserve to own gold.

Load up on pm stocks pm bullion for the ride of your life!

LGB - drop and give me fifty.

Now, Mister, MOVE IT!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 04:45 - ID#257148)
Contrary to Ordinary
Uh Oh Reveille, time ol' aurator was in bed..

(Mon Nov 03 1997 04:53 - ID#316193)

"Investors are like those cattle. Maybe they heard a cricket. Maybe
they heard thunder. Maybe a mountain lion. Maybe they thought they
saw a mountain lion. Maybe they heard something about the Thai baht.
One of them starts moving. Then the others start moving. They stampede.
Then they stop." -- Frrederick Rowe, Dallas money manager

(Mon Nov 03 1997 04:57 - ID#343175)
@assault coarse
All right soldiers, this is your wake up call. I want to see you out in formation in 2 minutes! What's that Aurator! You think your special!!! You're already late. Wipe that grin off your face! You think this is funny! Get over there with LGB! Drop and give me fifty!

Get back in formation when you have your gold and silver in your possession.

I'm going turn you women into men if it's the last thing I do!

What's that?!?? Hell know old man, get back in ranks with the women!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 05:01 - ID#318123)
Everythings going sideways until we know what the final tally is for this currency crisis. Gold will be pushed down moderatly, but it will still be in the back of everyones memory, is this a real equity rally or is this a false bottomed pandora box?? By the way it was the independent investors who propped up the markets on Tuesday last week, you know the ones who could'nt get though to their brokerage houses, honestly the institutional buyers were on the sidelines!! I say Bull Chit, it was them who were the first ones out and then first ones to buy on the cheap, everyone takes a trip and some never leaves the barn!! Pass the oats Clem!!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 05:13 - ID#256214)
@Indigenous Australian
G'day mates

I had a dream that mother earth will read the vermom from our continent and send them back to their homelands in Europe. Our peoples will be free once again from the oppression of the beer drinking, foul smelling white devils! We will care for the land once again as our ancestors have done for centuries. It was stolen from us by these self centric, prideful people who destroy with their ignorance! Our brothers in Nea Zealand are fighting for the same cause!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 05:14 - ID#386245)
G'day, Nick@Oz. Sorry, I have been "recalcitrant" of late. Just love them charts, mate. Agree with you in general, but am expecting an up-move short term, as all the suckers get back in to lose even more money when the fat lady sings. Cashed in me puts with brilliant timing if'n I do say so myself and am nibbling for more at muchos cheaper prices. Banks up big-time today!! Will those suckers never learn??? I'm not compainin', mind you. Just what the doctor ordered--cheaper puts!!

Aur ( ore ) @ator-- whateryoudoingupmate.Pastyerbedtime!!

George Cole
(Mon Nov 03 1997 05:20 - ID#42953)
at home
Bart: Many thanks for your very insightful and in depth reply! I knew there must be a good reason for your silence on the matter of where gold is headed. Now I know what it is.

We are greatly in your debt for providing this invaluable site.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 05:23 - ID#343175)
@To Battle Stations, Men!!!!!!!!!!
COL MOFO: I just had a talk with them CB inbreds! I told them enough is enough! If I hear of one more CB gold sale, HEADS WILL ROLL!!!!!
Gold immediately turned up. Now LGB, get up off the floor, soldier! I'm putting you in charge of the CBs! If anyone of those pencil necks even thinks about selling, I give you permissision to blow them away! You got me soldier! Now if you can carry out this directive, I will personnaly promote you to Captain. But you will have to use your REAL name, Captain BUFU! Now get to work soldier and take plenty of ammo. Make me proud soldier!!!!!!!!!!!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 05:27 - ID#386245)
Just in case you missed it--some advice from Bart.

Having said all that here is a personal opinion from an experienced precious metals dealer. ( The following
viewpoints are those of the author and do not reflect the opinion of Kitco Inc. )

- Consider watching lease rates as a leading indicator. Higher lease rates means an increased demand for the
physical metal which is often reflected in the price later
- Consider selling volatility when it is high by shorting out of the money options.
- Consider selling puts as an alternative to buying the underlying.
- Mine shutdowns indicate the bottoming of a market. I think that gold is close to the bottom.
- If you like silver consider buying the 1976 Olympic coin sets. Their face value is almost the same as their silver

(Mon Nov 03 1997 06:28 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 06:34 - ID#402127)

Good morning everyone. Please do not worry about any computer problems this week.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 06:38 - ID#57236)
@Home Hall - I take it all back!
Hal 9000: re youre 00:25 about tracing E-mail. That is a great idea! I know it can be done too but - I don't know the technicalities! If you can let Bart know, we will be forever grateful. This is one thing that will probably work -- public disclosure of the worst trouble makers.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 06:40 - ID#26793)
Hal: Where did you put the gender changer for my SCSI3 cord?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 06:41 - ID#57236)
@Home: Hal 9000 -- does the eye work?
And -- you have a sense of humor too! How much memory did you say you had? I didn't know the 9000 series could tell jokes! Are you specially enhanced?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 06:52 - ID#286199)
As if picking winners isn't hard enough...
'Out-Trades' Rise in
Due to Week's Heavy Volume


CHICAGO -- Heavy trading volume last week brought
a higher number of errors than usual to
financial-futures markets. But last week's miscues
weren't as bad as some of the headaches experienced
in other stretches of extreme market volatility.

Known as "out-trades," the errors take place at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board
of Trade when floor brokers and traders yell or signal
orders incorrectly. Typically, about 3% of trades on
futures exchanges result in out-trades or have some
type of error that needs to be resolved, industry
officials say. Final figures were unavailable for last
week, but traders and exchange officials said that the
number of actual out-trades was higher than usual.

Investors frown at the errors because they tend to
increase the cost of futures trading. Last week, as
the number of out-trades perked up, some were
reminded that reaching the broker and placing an
order are just the first steps in a successful trade.

"On any given transaction, there are five or six people
involved, and they're doing 1,000 a day," says
Leonard Ellis, manager of the equity-derivatives
trading desk at Bankers Trust. "One of our biggest
concerns is minimizing out-orders."

In last week's fast markets, concern was heightened,
and Mr. Ellis instructed traders to verify their
transactions three times a day instead of once at the
end of the day. Mistakes still happened, though. Mr.
Ellis says that the group lost out on $80,000 on one
stock-index-futures trading error.

Why the increased level of errors? Last week, the
normally busy pits escalated to near apoplexy,
traders say. On Tuesday, the Chicago Board of Trade
had its second-busiest day ever in Treasury-bond
futures. On the same day, the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange fielded more orders than any other day --
223,000 separate transactions.

Meanwhile, dizzying volatility accompanied the
increased business in the futures-trading pits,
causing normally minor mistakes to become more
substantial. The biggest errors occur when markets
are moving quickly, causing traders to get out of the
faulty positions at a significantly different price. Last
year, the CME adjudicated an out-trade in which more
than $900,000 was at stake.

"There have been a couple of big ones this week, but
it's been digestible," says H. Jack Bouroudjian, a CME
director and S&P 500 futures broker for Nikko
Securities International. "We haven't seen the million
dollar out-trade, but with the market moving so fast,
there are some horror stories," of errors between
$300,000 to $600,000, he says.

Ron Pankau, an independent trader in the CME's
Eurodollar pit, says increased confusion in the pits
forced traders to flock to the exchange's video
resolution rooms to settle disputes. The video
resolution rooms allow traders to request videotapes
of specific trades to find out who is responsible for
the error. The video recorders in the room also help
prevent more costly out-trades by minimizing the
time between the error and the resolution.

CME officials point out that while the number of
out-trades on Tuesday exceeded the average total by
about 2 percentage points, the volatile market of this
week has seen fewer problematic trades than other
memorable market events. In October 1987, for
example, the CME called an emergency midnight
out-trade session to resolve the steep losses caused
by errors.

In 1994, when the Fed tightened rates, the number of
out-trades doubled. "This week was a breeze
compared to '94 and '87," a CME spokeswoman says.
The Chicago Board of Trade also reported that
despite increased volume, the percentage of errors
had stayed slightly below average, 2.7% on Monday
and 2.6% on Tuesday. A spokesman points out that
the figures reflected only those out-trades recorded
by the exchange the next morning, leaving out those
resolved the previous day by brokers.

And to a greater extent, most trade errors are being
resolved the same day. In the past five years, more
floor brokers and traders have hired extra
trade-checkers, whose sole job is to verify that the
quantity and prices are correct on all trades. The
practice first started at the CME in S&P futures after
the 1987 crash, then spread to other pits in the last
five years.

Friday's Market Activity

Gold futures fell back near 12-year lows Friday amid
comments by Swiss finance officials about possible
gold sales. December gold fell $5.10 to $312.10 an
ounce at the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex

The comments followed an Oct. 24 recommendation
by a Swiss panel that the nation sell more than half
its gold, partly to aid Holocaust victims and their
families, as well as victims of natural disasters.

Although that particular plan was criticized by the
Swiss finance minister earlier last week, finance
officials Friday indicated they would support a gold
sale of about 800 tons, slightly less than one-third of
the nation's giant reserve, traders noted.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 06:52 - ID#402127)

Good morning Dave and Frank. I have neutralized one of the disrupters already. Look. I hope this is satisfactory.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 07:01 - ID#57236)
@Home - anyone notice the upswing in gold,silver, platinum and palladium?
Bart: Thank you for your advice on gold -- when the Kitcoites are ready to throw in the towel, and gold mine closures are occuring -- a bottom is likely! I'm going to hang on to my longs on gold stocks.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 07:12 - ID#386245)
Thanks, BIG BEAVER. I had missed this important piece of news about Indian gold imports:

Just before Diwali, the Indian government issued an amendment to the
latest liberalisation move on gold ( see Gold News Flash dated October
20th ) . The import of gold through licensed agencies will now be
allowed immediately, i.e. as of October 28th, 1997 as opposed to the
date set earlier of January 1st, 1998.

The Council welcomes this move. The reduction in the Indian premium vs
the international gold price will be accelerated. As a result, the
restraint on buying by consumers and trade pending the introduction of
the new measures next year has been removed, allowing unimpeded
offtake growth.

Despite all the "shooting" on this site in the past 24 hours-- this announcement stands out as a beacon and IMHO removes the restraints on the gold price in the last two months of this year.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 07:25 - ID#386245)
Globex Aussie $$$ up 157 ( the "commodity currency" shooting up ) .

S & P + 870.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 07:26 - ID#333131)
@Good morning, Physical gold buying in Europe, Concern about Mexican silver sales

(Mon Nov 03 1997 07:31 - ID#413109)
Find your posts very fascinating reading, and makes one think, not to mention wonder. Soooo, I'm wondering, over what period of time are your

Where do you get information on about, Big Trader?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 07:38 - ID#333131)
@Indonesian gold outlook

(Mon Nov 03 1997 07:58 - ID#243180)
BART: As a serious investor I've previously purchase gold/silver bullion in the Maples and/or Eagle variety. Of course, a premium is paid for this. Can U explain why one buys these products as opposed to JMs or Engelhard, et al. ? Perhaps if ( in the long term ) it is more cost effective to purchase generic bullion ( as opposed to Government issues ) I wil change my strategy and purchase bars.

Thanx in advance!!!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 07:59 - ID#243180)
I'm Sorry --- I should have also addressed the group for insight since I am looking for good advice from all.

Bob M
(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:10 - ID#26059)
Wet Gold-Because Eagles and Maples are legal tender currency with a par value...just think if there was a massive deflation and gold went back to $35/ Eagle is worth $50

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:10 - ID#225283)
The Bewildered Herd and its Shepherds

In the cntemporary period , hume's insight has been revived and elaborated, but with a crucial innovatin: control of thought is MORE important for governments that are free and popular than fo despotic and military states. The logic is straightforward. A despotic state can control its domestic enemy by force, but as the state loses this weapon, other devices are required to prevent the ignorant masses from interfering with public affairs, which are none of their business. These prominent features of modern political and intellectual culture merit a closer look.

The problem of "putting the public in its place" came to the fore with what one historian calls "the first great outburst of democratic thought in history,"the English revolution in the seveteenth century.This awakening of the general populace raised the the problem of how to contain the threat. to be cont.......

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:15 - ID#30116)
I just heard an ad on the radio for high tech jobs. The company is publicly announcing a $1500 'signing' bonus. So, if they hire you, you get $1500 for saying, 'yes'.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:16 - ID#243180)
Bob M: Thanx for your reply. I never though of Maples/Eagles as legal tender. Although I view Maples/Eagles as MONEY - I consider the product as a bullion COMMODITY ( as the respective governments wish us to ) . Given this premise I was considering changing my purchasing strategy to play the game - that is - purchase silver/gold as a bullion and look for the lowest price. If what you say is true - are you recommend I pay the added premium to obtain Maples / Eagles as I have been ?

Appreciate further discussion!!! Thanx

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:19 - ID#30116)
Echo Bay to announce earnings today. Hard to believe that the stock is trading around four from the highs of sixteen in '93.

Bob M
(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:22 - ID#26059)
Wet Gold-well deflation could become a reality as when this wordwide debt bubble implodes..severe price declines could become common place..that is an added premium buying legal tender coins..also if there is another confiscation of bullion as in the 30's, the legal tender would have a better chance to survive it than would bullion..these are all thoughts thrown around that I have heard...I personally think the deflation aspect is the most important

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:28 - ID#243180)
As we await the coming implosion does anyone ( "bugs" ) wish to announce a prediction for this ? I've been awaiting the crisis for many years and it seems as though we are chasing a moving target that moves faster than we are able.

I remember an anylsis from some college class about moving half the distance toward a wall with each step - the reality is - it can never be achieved. Anyone care to comment ( stick their neck out ) as to when this imposion occurs ? Is it in the next 2-3 years, baby-boom retirement, our life-time ( 1 generation ) ? ...

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:38 - ID#7568)

The events in SE Asia over the past few weeks have demonstrated exactly why there will be no deflation due to the debt bubble collapsing. All that has happened is that new debt is created to take the place of the old. All these loans to Indonesia, Thailand etc are new debt replacing the old and no contraction of global money supply. No one is going to fail. All that will happen is that bad debts will be monetized. We are watching exactly how the process will proceed.

What happened to all of the billions of dollars of currency reserves in Thailand? Currency trading is a zero sum game regardless of who the participants are. The only difference when a central bank plays the game and loses is that the IMF or some other body, replenishes their supply of chips. The billions that they lost in the game are now floating around the worlds economy. More power Igor.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:38 - ID#255151)

Wet Gold--The 65 through 71 Franklin halves contain 40% silver, or .15 ounce. Can buy in bags of $1000 face value. The face value of the coin gives you a downside risk of $3.33 silver. That is, if silver drops below $3.33, the face value is worth more than its silver content. Plus, its a practical way to use as a medium of exchange. You get 2000 coins for $1000 face value. I will call my locals and get a quote on price, to see what the mark up is.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:38 - ID#225283)

Thank you for posting your comments. I hope hear more from you in the future.

One of the reasons I tuned in to this sight is that I am looking at funding a unique duty-free gold jewelery venture in 1998...if all goes well perhaps we can do some business...I look forward to meeting you .

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:40 - ID#286199)
@leaving for work
WetGold: Bullion coins have high premiums 4% or so, because there is the additional cost of minting. The U.S. mint also adds a .50 premium to the silver eagles. I don't know why. I prefer coins because they are marketable without assay, guaranteed by their respective governments and as has already been pointed out, some have face value as currency which places a loss limit on the deal. BBML

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:46 - ID#243180)
Auric: Thank you. However, if silver goes to $3.33 it is below the production cost of mining the stuff. Mining companies will shut down and the price goes back up. True ?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:51 - ID#333131)
@mines may or may not hedge more if gold goes to 330

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:52 - ID#255151)

Wet Gold--Agreed. I think it very unlikely we'll ever see 3-3-3!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:57 - ID#30116)
D.A. -- I have believed, and will believe in the inflation monster until the currencies of the world are linked to a commodity. Then, and only then, will I buy in to the deflationary case. The solution to these 'monetary' problems, has always been, to go and get some more 'chips'. After all, they are created out of nothing and backed with a full faith and credit promise. A promise of what, is subject to debate. The results are not. Answer, INFLATION.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:57 - ID#225283)

IMHO you are correct!!!
But...I personally feel it would have been better in the long run to allow these CB's and latter day Mexico's to bite the bullet and allow the contraction face to take place.

What are your feelings on deflationary rather than inflationary depressions/recessions?

If recession should threaten serious consequences for business ( as is not indicated at present ) there is little doubt that the Federal Reserve system would take steps to ease the money market and so check the movement.
October 19, 1929
They couldn't pull it off in the 1930's ...why do you feel they would not make the same mistake again in the 1990s?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 08:59 - ID#426220)
LAST week we witnessed the market making ALL-TIME RECORDS: greatest one-day DOW point loss in history on Monday, followed by the greatest one-day DOW point gain in history on Tuesday. It's my considered opinion that internal dynamics of the market do NOT have the required strength to cause such whipsaw action... there must be an external force exerting inordinate pressures. I may be too old-fashion, but I thought market manipulation was illegal - regardless who the culprit might be... or is it that some are above the LAW?! We received via email visual evidence there is indeed blatant and obscene stock market manaipulation. Here is the report with charts - comments and observations invited:

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:05 - ID#225283)

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't Thailand pull out all the stops and use all of their foriegn reserves to buy Baht in an effort to support the Baht?Isn't the same thing happening right now with many of the other Asian Tigers?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:07 - ID#386276)
Crash up or down from bloomfield

FT-SE 100 INDEX 4755.40 -85.30 -1.76
FT-SE MID 250 INDEX 4528.40 -239.20 -5.02
DAX INDEX 3567.22 -311.90 -8.04
DAXI INDEX ( IBIS ) 3645.69 -225.70 -5.83
CAC 40 INDEX 2647.64 -122.00 -4.41
IBEX 35 INDEX 5656.47 -657.39 -10.41
SPAIN MA MADRID INDEX 497.21 -59.02 -10.61
SWISS MARKET INDEX 5279.70 -253.80 -4.59
HEX GENERAL INDEX 3304.59 -277.13 -7.74
MILAN MIB TELEMATICO 15264.00 -434.00 -2.77
ITALY STK MKT 881.36 -77.90 -8.12
AMSTERDAM EXCHANGES INDX 835.81 -25.35 -2.94
DUTCH TOP 5 INDEX 1509.24 -56.20 -3.59 1
OBX INDUSTRIAL INDEX 2078.31 -134.43 -6.08
OBX TOTAL INDEX 1272.87 -83.49 -6.16
OBX STOCK INDEX 682.43 -39.53 -5.48
SWEDEN STK MKT 2775.00 -270.80 -8.89
IRELAND STK MKT 3550.09 -271.01 -7.09
GREECE ASE COMPOSITE IDX 1652.42 -46.09 -2.71
BUDAPEST STK MKT 6540.74 -1292.55 -16.50
LISBON BVL GENERAL INDEX 1682.36 -103.19 -5.78
PORTUGAL STK MKT PSI 8456.12 -12.74 -.15
POLAND STOCK MKT WARSAW 14953.70 -1620.10 -9.78
Russia INDEX, Rb 768.54 -197.49 -20.44
JOHGOLD JOHAN ALL GOLD INDEX 861.01 -33.58 -3.75

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:08 - ID#7568)

People are people regardless of their position. They always tend to fight the last war. The first thing that is taught in central banking 101 is that the depression of the 30's was aided by tight money policies until it was too late. 'Learning' from this past requires that this mistake not be repeated. The big difference between now and then is that the biggest debtors of all are the governments. In practical terms they can not be allowed to default. The only way to avoid this is to hang some new paper over the old. There is no reason that this can not be done. It will also be justified as 'fair' because the governmental debt is owed by all of us so all of us will take the hit in the form of higher prices in a depreciated currency.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:11 - ID#225283)

You got it and it is still going on as you read this...just as aI predicted on this site Monday as the Market was crashing. They cannot afford not to manipulate the market...some would argue that it is their responsibility to perform a bit of "slight of hand" ...just don't tell the small investor and spoil his big surprise

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:13 - ID#7568)

If you are out there this morning might be a good time to stoke up that 401k. I find myself in the position of having to put on another short position in the SP's and could use a little help in getting these babies a little higher to hit my entry price. Thanks in advance for any upticks.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:14 - ID#386276)
Forget that last post!!!
I opened bloomberg and those were the figure that came up.
Just went back there and they are all up.
Cyber mistake I guess.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:15)
Never seen before
Reading the Sun Sentinel Newspaper in Fort Lauderdale, FL this morning and
was shocked to see four full page adds from various dealers wanting to
buy coins, antique and estate jewelry. Does anyone have a URL or two
on the Illuminati that I could access. Thx in advance. Have some gold
mine stock in Brazil that I thought was going to bottom out but it has
come back up a little. Confusing as all of this is. Thanks so much
for everyones contribution to this site. Nice if there were more
"Bart's" in this world. Have a wonderful day!!!!!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:26 - ID#225283)

Does anyone have some connections with your local print media...I seem to be reading a great deal in various papers throughout the USA the is very cookie cutter in style and format....arewe seeing the 100th monkey experiment here...are the powers that be "MANUFACTURING PUBLIC OPINION" we will get congress in on the act and shot a few million/billion dollars of cruise missles over Saddams head to further draw interest away from the financial worries of the world...I can hear it now the government has already begun to "manufacture consent" to take action against Saddam.
If you have connections with your local print media editors see if they are "being asked to find space " for certain articles and op/ed pieces.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:29 - ID#346256)
As of this morning I am making a list of phone numbers of the mining stocks I have held onto over the past year. Any hedgers I am dumping.
I have held onto these through doom and gloom, but as I mentioned earlier, I now finally realize my trust has been violated, as some of the same are forward selling much of the time each time gold rallies.
This depresses the gold price, along with my mining shares each time.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:34 - ID#243180)
MURRAY: Is it possible that HM could go lower. In Mar it was slightly above 16 and now floundering around 12. Is it a buy at below 10 ?

How low can U go...

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:35 - ID#56215)

You should get your uptick within the hour...I figure they will start playing games no later than 1030am @NYSE
They have to get that dead cat bounce rally going so the big boys can get out of the way of the train before it tanks again.

George Cole
(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:39 - ID#42953)
Deflation or inflation
DA: This inflation/deflation debate intrigues me. There is little doubt that powerful deflationary forces have bee set in motion world wide. GE CEO Jack Welch has been talking about deflation for years. He argues that the existence of massive global overcapacity in many crucial industries is the key motivating force behind these deflationary currents. There is little doubt that fears ( and hopes ) of global deflation are key factors behind the gold bear and the bond bull.

Governments, of course, do have the power to create unlimited supplies of money and credit. And if they turn on the spigots strongly enough, this deflation could be nipped in the bud. The real question is when will they do this. At some point they undoubtedly will. But I'm not sure we have yet reached that point. I don't think AG will ease in a big way unless and until the U.S. stock market tanks much more than it has to date and/or the economy is clearly headed for a serious recession.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:42 - ID#225283)
LOOKs like alot of downgrades today

Everyone seems to be making revisions of forcasts and downgrading their opinions away from buy or even hold...
very interesting.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:45 - ID#333131)
@oil higher on Iraq situation

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:47 - ID#30116)
@Phili Exchange
Does anybody know if there some kind of problem at the Philidelphia Stock Exchange? I don't seem to be getting any quotes on their products. Like the XAU or SOX indexes.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:48 - ID#30116)
Never mind! They're back....

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:50 - ID#30116)
Absolute buying panic this morning. The Dow is up 109 points in twenty minutes. Talk about buying the dip.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:50 - ID#348169)
"Research is an organized method for keeping you reasonably dissatisfied with what you have." ----Charles F. Kettering."

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:53 - ID#262351)
What's with the arrows on EBN?
What is the most current and accurate source of spot gold, silver, and oil quotes. Are the arrows on EBN backwards?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 09:56 - ID#30116)
Bridge -- EBN has had the arrows backwards for sometime now. I've e-mailed them to no avail. Maybe it's their idea of a joke?

George Cole
(Mon Nov 03 1997 10:03 - ID#42953)
gold stocks rallying
Gold stocks also rallying today. XAU up 2.3%. We shall see if this continues.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 10:34 - ID#246224)
Looks like you are in control. We would like to hear more from you when you have the time. Busy week for you and yours, eh?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 10:46 - ID#387247)
AURIC and WETGOLD....The 40% clad halves are from 1965-69.....

(Mon Nov 03 1997 10:47 - ID#7568)

You are right that we would need something big for the Greenman to rally the troops for an easing. However, current monetary conditions are easy enough so that as long as rates are not raised we will probably create enough money/credit to do the dirty inflation deed. With M3 growing at nearly double digit rates the balloon is expanding.

Now that the SE Asian crisis is officially over ( see currency prices today, Malaysia +6%, Indonesia +10% ( yeah! ) ) we can get back to the inflation at hand. Hi ho silver -- away. ( Appologies to EB for plageurism.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 10:49 - ID#426220)
LBMA EXPOS: PART 9 (November 3, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis Compiled by Red Baron
The Onion PARADOX peels yet another layer away from the eventual truth of the LONDON BULLION MARKETING ASSOCIATION...:

(Mon Nov 03 1997 10:50 - ID#386276)
Whose squeezing silver?

Trade package lifts rupiah as banks stay shut

Europe hit by truck strike

Australian money markets summary
The Australian dollar rose yesterday in line with a rebound in Asian financial markets following the announcement of a US$38 billion fund to bail out the Indonesian economy.

Stocks, dollar stage a comeback
The Australian dollar and the All Ordinaries Index accompanied climbing Asian currencies and stockmarkets yesterday.

INDONESIA: THE SHUTDOWN: Bank closures a good sign

Arafat health rumours
Serious doubts have been raised about the health of the Palestinian leader, Mr Yasser Arafat, after a senior European diplomat claimed he was "suffering from a physical and psychological crisis".

Deadly cache invites Gulf War reprise
The imminent discovery of a stockpile of liquid nerve agent powerful enough to kill millions of people has raised the prospect of renewed military action against Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.

Japanese banks under pressure
EXPERTS are predicting that Japan will be the big loser from the current turmoil in Asian financial markets, with Australia suffering as a result.

Share havoc underpins Internet mart
THE havoc created on the share market over the South-East Asian crisis has also sparked a wave of interest in share trading on the Internet.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 10:51 - ID#289384)
D.A.: Try throwing those diamonds at thieves , from IRS agents to any other gubmnt functionary when they come at you and yours with a firearm.
It might work, and then again they may decide that they wanna " take it all."
Only dif between them and the druggy seeking cash for a fix is the comparative freedom from prosecution the lawdogs enjoy!
Try to maintain your right to speek out by using the first amendment against atf, dea, fib, etc. They will not be impressed.
The reason for the second amendment is to forestall the type of action the federales are now using in widely serarated instances, where they are sure they have the upper hand.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 10:55 - ID#227238)
PrivateInvestor ( The Bewildered Herd and its Shepherds ) : But of course, popular governments consider the control of public thought to be nothing more than an expression of effective leadership. Any distinction to be drawn would bear heavily on motivation and ultimate intent of our masters. All conveniently hidden from public view.

In the end, the only position to take is that governments must be distrusted at all times and all places. It might be mean spirited but when history speaks; it's seldom wrong.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 10:58 - ID#224149)
BELIEVE IT OR NOT- The Jupiter-Saturn conjunction of Oct. 10 1781,witnessed the complete destruction of the Continental currency which had been issued by Congress to finance the revolutionary war.The rate of exchange for hard money at Philadelphia rose very rapidly until May 31,1781 when a dollar of hard money exchanged for $400 to$1000 of currency. ( It took $19,390 of paper money to buy one ounce of Gold! ) By the act of August 4,1790,the continental bills were funded at one cent on the dollar.The next Jupiter-Saturn conjunction is May 2000 in Taurus\ Square Uranus.This will change how we do business for the next 1000 years.P.S.My humble spiritual blessing to John Addey,Andre Barbault and Dane Rudhyar for many burnt candles.Happy Trails

(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:06 - ID#289384)
Oldman: Had I read your response to aurator and D.A. before I posted mine, I would have not posted. You put the entire subject in a terrificaly clear perspecrive.
The reason I possess a CHL ( Arkansas acronym for right to carry concealed ) is to be able to guarantee not only my safety but that of friends and loved ones. I have three daughters and one son. They EACH have the ability and the proclivity to do as needed in dire situations such as you describe. I feel anyone who believes in gold as a basic element of our society should never forsake the principle embodied in the second article of the Bill of Rights.
To me it seems to be thinkng and living in oxymoronic terms fo forego self defense as the gentlemen appear to advise....

(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:11 - ID#333131)
@interesting article on Japan and the other Asian markets

(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:19 - ID#20135)
Just Curious, but as was pointed out the other day Gold seems to get a high $2+ higher than the trading range in the U.S. Does anyone or can anyone tell me where this price jump occurs and then disappears. Today dec gold 97 has a high of 316.2 overnight comex ( it always shows on CNBC's future boards also ) , where did that occur? Thanks in advance.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:32 - ID#93177)
Are we being taken to the cleaners???

Everyone check this out and the forecast for a "KILLER RALLY"

************************ FLASH ************************************
International Monetary Fund induced World Stock Market killer
reversal at hand??? Please read the following....

After the close on Thursday the DEC SPX futures contract plummeted
all the way down to the 893 level. However, this news just out
from the IMF spiked the contract up and it is now trading at the
911 level...that is a 20 point intranight reversal!!! See below..

From Bloomberg October 31st, 1997

Indonesia and the International Monetary Fund will today announce
an aid package --expected to top $20 billion -- to shore up the
rupiah and restore confidence in Southeast Asia's battered markets.
IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus will announce the package at
9:30 a.m. Washington time, the IMF said late Thursday. Indonesia
will become the second country in the region to be bailed out by an
IMF-led emergency aid package. In August, the IMF and several Asian
countries agreed to pump $17.2 billion into Thailand after a costly
defense of the baht left that country with depleted foreign

To see how the Dec SPX is trading on Globex see the link below.
And we again reiterate that trading is highly risky as you can not
predict what outside forces are likely to do and how they are
likely to influence the markets. Unfortunately for us we are once
again long the OEX WT's and will have to liquidate tommorrow
hopefully at not too much of a loss.

Our reccomendations for Friday October 31st is to watch the Dow
7,250 for support and if the Dow closes above 7,350 tomorrow then
the Decline will be over just as fast as it started and it will be
time to go long again. However, if the Dow sells off into the
close and closes below 7,250 then the final test will be 7,000 at
which time it will be over...nuff said!

Since the OEX is priced for Armageddon it would be better to trade
IBM or Intel or even Microsoft options. Stay away from the OEX

Straight from the desk of

...see you there

PART TWO!!!!!!!!!!!!
( continued from 10/31 ) THE KILLER REVERSAL--PART II

The killer reversal is now taking roots. SPX DECEMBER FUTURES is
trading near Limit up again on the Globex and it looks like this
coming week will be one filled with a fair amount of upside
fireworks. For all of those new found bears out there the pressure
to cover their positions will become increasingly obvious as the
markets begin gapping up on the open. Those who were closet bulls
and were kept out of the markets by the hightened volatility will
now come out with a vengenace...and the market will make a run back
to the 8,000 level probably faster than you can say Jack Sprat....

Our recomendations for this coming week is to take a several day
position in the OEX CALL option series. Depending on your risk
tolerance level you would play either the close to the moneys or
the out of the moneys. Either do not want to miss this
killer rally about to unfold. The root symbol for OEX above the
905 level will now be OEW K.. Also take a look at Ibm, Intel or
Microsoft calls for November.... We are sure they will probably
double by expiration.....nuff said.

Straight from the desk of

...see you there

(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:35 - ID#335190)
Sanyo Securities @ Halt Business Japan
November 3, 1997
Sanyo Securities to halt business
TOKYO ( Reuters ) - Sanyo Securities Co. Ltd said Monday that it will stop accepting new business and will begin to unwind its positions in the market after filing for bankruptcy protection.

The second-tier firm, the first brokerage to file for court protection in post-war Japan, said that while it hoped to continue operating under court supervision or through a merger, it would begin to wind down its operations.

It said it would begin Tuesday to return funds to its customers and will not take any new orders.

In addition, it said it will make trades to offset its current positions in the futures markets and in margin operations, adding that it will sell off its holdings in government notes and money market funds.

Sanyo was forced to seek protection after nine major life insurance groups refused to extend the terms of their current
subordinated loans to Sanyo.
A Finance Ministry official said that following Sanyo's filing, it ordered Sanyo to stop new business, but has not taken away
the firm's securities licenses.
"Whether Sanyo can restructure or not depends on the judgement by the court. If Sanyo is able to restructure, new business
will be resumed," he said.
Sanyo's problem is not due to its core operations but because of troubled non-bank affiliates hit by the collapse of the
economic bubble in the early 1990s, Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka told reporters.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:36 - ID#338452)
Murray, you wrote this morning :

"I have held onto these through doom and gloom, but as I mentioned earlier, I now finally realize my trust has been violated"

Sorry Murray, but unless you made an inside deal with the company, you took the chance. Your "trust" was not violated unless you had a deal in writing with them. I'll bet they didn't even know you owned the stock Murray. They call it due diligence in the real world Murray and you just got taken. A lesson learned for sure, but don't blame it on the company, You blew it Murray. Accept the responsibility and learn from your mistakes. Thats what makes a lesson valuable. I'm sorry if this sounds harsh, but if you don't learn from this, you'll make the same mistake next time and blame someone else for it, yet again. It's your money Murray, watch it like a hawk ! No-one else will !


just for the record
(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:38 - ID#203183)
and that ain't my police record
Flag is currently trading at 56 cents, with a bid of
50 cents and an ask of 56 cents.

Mr. Mooney has always argued that Flag is a better
investment than the Dow, yet I would ask him ( and
hope that it doesn't take longer than 2 months to
respond ) to compute returns on Flag versus the Dow
from September of '96 to September of '97.

George Cole
(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:39 - ID#42953)
bear versus crash
Beginning to look like this will be a traditional bear market after all. The Plunge Protection Team may well be able to prevent a crash. But it will not be able to head off a savage and drawn out bear market -- indeed that is not its mission. Just to prevent "disorderly declines, not declines per se.

That is not necessarily good news for the public. They will lose more in a slow grinding bear than in a crash. Frequent suckers' rallies will keep most from bailing out until prices are far below current levels.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:40 - ID#335190)
That Sucking Sound @ MAI FAst Track
Levi Strauss to close 11 plants, lay off 6,395

SAN FRANCISCO ( Reuters ) - Levi Strauss & Co., the world's largest brand-name apparel manufacturer, said Monday it will close 11 U.S. plants and lay off 6,395 workers, or 34 percent of its U.S. and Canadian workforce.

Levi Strauss said it was closing the facilities in 1998 in order to bring its manufacturing capacity in line with its U.S. production needs. A spokesman for the company said the move was not a "shift of jobs offshore."

(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:42 - ID#246224)
@Nick@Aussie & PREM Charts
Nick@Aussie we will need PREM charts for today in order to see if we were seeing similar manipulation to Tuesday's rebound.

Any one have a guess as to whether Heavy Hitter is the real thing? So far he's been on target. His last posts said that we would have multi-hundred point gains 4 out of 5 days this week.

So far what I see is very much like the activity at 10:30 on Oct 28. A huge run up and then a 'ring' oscillation. Probably followed by another 'run and ring'. This to happen all this week?

Anyone know where I can start a option account in a hurry? What is usually required?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:43 - ID#356379)
Silver storage stocks

Otay... For the benefit of those of us with a limited American education,
why is the ever lower quantity of silver in the two major storage facilities ( COMEX and London ) not a factor in the price of silver? It seems as if the potential for a silver squeeze is being ignored, as silver continues to look weak.

yeah, boy, do I feel sorry for those bulls
(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:45 - ID#188132)
looks like this traditional bear is back up to before Gray Monday
Oh woe is me. I haven't been following GSC's and Putsy's advice,
instead I've been hanging on just like a typical brainwashed Ma
and Pa investor. I realize this is just another sucker's rally,
and, oh well, I guess I'm just a sucker for making money instead
of losing it.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:50 - ID#255151)

For Y2K freaks. New York may feel Y2K by April 98. Interesting read.

Kitco perception
(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:51 - ID#224327)
versus reality
Kitco Perception: JM made a lousy Dow call
Reality: The prediction was 200 points off
according to the terms of the prediction, an
error of less than 1%.

Kitco Perception: Peups made a great Dow call
Reality: The prediction was 3500 points
off according to the terms of the prediction,
an error of 45%.

Kitco Perception: People have been wise over the
last 18 years to invest in gold.
Reality: Well, you get the idea.


(Mon Nov 03 1997 11:54 - ID#333131)
@George Cole
George, I was in the "crash" camp, but am thinking along the lines of a painful grinding early 70's type senario. I think we will know more when the Dow breaks and stays below its 200 day moving average. It jumped off it this morning like a cat off a hot tin roof. When it goes though to the down side and stays there, a lot of intermediate term models will read down. Then we will see how the kids in charge behave.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:00 - ID#31868)
Nick: As unusal as it may be, maybe no one, or group is squeezing silver supplies. Worldwide stocks have been dwindling for some time now. It could be egads!, supply and demand.

Who would have thought. An actual, non-manipulated market ocurrence.

Not trying to be facetious, I very much respect your post's and your obvious market acumen.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:08 - ID#243180)
RidgeRunner: Silver is up slightly as well as gold. Do U forsee a future weakening much beyond the current levels ?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:09 - ID#224151)
@ all
Looks like a period of vicious whipsawing in the markets for the next little while that is going to decimate the traders who guess wrong. Who is John Galt?

John Disney
(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:14 - ID#24140)
To All Interested Parties.

Quiz for today - A certain South African Mine announced results today
Gee, dispite the rotten gold price etc etc, results were very good.
In fact, they will pay one rand interim dividend and are forecast to pay
1.1 rand for their final. They are trading at 8.7 rands ( cum dividend )
and will go ex div very soon. That makes 2.1/8.7 or 24 % return plus you get half the cash flow in a few weeks.After it goes ex, it will drop to
maybe 7.7 R and have a forward dividend yield of say 2.1 making up to 27 % return.
If anyone requests, I will give them the name of this gold Mining
Boy, its funny how Barrick with those REALLY low costs and that
BRILLIANT forward hedge program is losing money. But these poor HIGH
COST South Africans, with their unproductive workers, in this
misbegotten Red dominated Waste Land keep churning out the old profits to the hated shareholders.
What can I say??

(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:15 - ID#243180)
Barrick up 'bout 2%

(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:16 - ID#426220)
Novus Ordo Seclorum ( Rothschild, George Soros et al ) versus the Chinese Dragon --- world monetary and political dominance the prize --- TRICK OR TREAT????????:

(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:37 - ID#224149)
MARK TWAIN-By law of Periodical Repetition,everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously,but at regular periods,and each thing in its own period,not another's,and each obeying its own law...and the same nature which delights in periodical repetition in the skies is the nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint.Happy Trails.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:38 - ID#224149)
Dewey-Recommended,in the April 1952 Cycles,"In my opinion,the way to make money with cycles in the stock or Gold market is to determine some short-term cycles that have repeated them-selves so often and over so long a period of time that they cannot reasonably be the result of chance,and then to play these short-term cycles on an actuarial basis,expecting losses and runs of losses,but expecting - or at least hoping - that on the average and in the long run the gains will exceed the losses, just as they do in Fire Insurance.Happy Trails

(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:42 - ID#243180)
POORBOYS: Short term prediction prior to May 2000 ???

(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:45 - ID#411149)
John Disney- these people do not understand the South African mines and probably never will but I will say it one more time. It don't matter what the gold price is for the South African mines to make a profit, they just go to that shelf and mine the grade dictated by the present gold price.
They have grades from high to low and mine the low grade stuff at high
gold prices abd the high grade stuff with low gold prices.

Most also pay dividends and if these stocks go down with the market you will still participate in a gold rally in the form of dividends.

Nuff said!!

Tally Ho

(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:47 - ID#7568)

Having consulted the Ouija board last night I became convinced that today would be a good day to re-establish shorts in the S&P. The board told me 939.00 would be a good entry level, but I had to add another buck because I was sure that you would add enough buying power to get us to 940. Since we are stalling out here again I have decided to go with the board. If you did try, thanks for the effort.

looks like another 200 point day for the Dow
(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:49 - ID#269144)
and D.A. just keeps makin' money

What a great day for the Dow
Too bad it's about ready to end now that D.A. is shorting the S&P

(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:49 - ID#243180)
RAY: How does a tangible asset pay a dividend unless there are by-products produced from said asset ? The way to go is POSSESSION of "hard" money - not to rely on dividends from stock - True ? or am I missing something ?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:56 - ID#224149)
WETGOLD-Long DOW -Short Gold

(Mon Nov 03 1997 12:57 - ID#346140)
NOTE: 1997-10-01 was omitted.
1997-10-30 partial ( am posts omitted )

Total posting days: 30
Total posts recorded: 10061
Total handles posting: 1034

Average Posts per day: 335
Average handles per day: 94.5

"Most Prolific Handles for Oct-1997"
Posts Handle
----- -------------
723 Donald
643 JTF
584 Nick
422 panda
350 tolerant1
307 Ted
261 LGB
213 aurator
191 George Cole
185 HighRise

"Daily Posting Peaks"
Posts Handle Date
----- ---------- ------
53 panda Oct-28
47 tolerant1 Oct-27
45 Donald Oct-12
45 Nick Oct-23
41 JTF Oct-26
39 A.Goose Oct-23
37 HighRise Oct-30
36 Eldorado Oct-24
33 Ted Oct-23
32 LGB Oct-26
29 Bossbear Oct-28

"Frequently adopted handles"
ID's Handle
---- -------------
10 test
7 lurker
6 news
6 Aurator
6 George Cole


Since Tuesday
(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:00 - ID#239327)
I made $34,000 on Boeing - talk about manipulation
When will this manipulation cease? Knowing that the market
was going to be manipulated up, I picked up some Boeing on
Tuesday. Knowing that the manipulation couldn't go on
forever, I got out about 30 minutes ago. Knowing that the
Fed was printing up worthless paper, I called a car dealer
and asked if he would take a trade - my worthless $34,000
for a new Oldsmobile. The guy must be crazy - He took it.
Well, now he's left holding the bag and I'll be driving
a new Oldsmobile up to Kitco next week.

Am I stoopid or what?

P.S. - Had I invested in Gold on Tuesday, I would have been
able to buy a used bicycle.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:02 - ID#2082)
Hey Bro! I thought you said you only went to the long side of the markets. So, you have been changing your strategy of late? Does this mean you will short gold with me when we hit 330?? I would love to have you on my side during this next DIVE...oh my! ;- )

Is it your firm or are you going alone? ( the S&P shorts ) sly devil..... short the Aust$...cause it's the same dog with different, Nick ( Can )

(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:02 - ID#255284)
birds @ birdbath
346140, I am obliged for the data.

Lan Man
(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:06 - ID#31766)
To John Disney
Don't hold back man, let us have it ( as well as any others that you hear about ) .

BTW Calif. Numismatics indicated that sales for Oct. 26th thru Nov.1st was a record week! And that they still have inventory...

Bob a
(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:08 - ID#18388)
to since tuesday
You poor sod, think of the taxes you have to pay. Am I jealous, you bet

(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:10 - ID#246224)
Its pretty obvious that the tricksters are pumping this market. The DOW shot straight up while S&P and NASDAQ fell then dragged themselves back up to match it. Its pretty easy to use the DOW since there are at most 30 issues to work on. Again this happened in a weak market which is waiting for leadership. In this case we must ask who is leading and where they are leading us.

Have you ever been around a slaughter house? Bulls and cows lead pretty easily when they are getting on and off the truck. But closer to the facility they sense a problem they can't identify because of the smell of blood. They balk and must be run up to the shoots. Use cattle prods, etc. Unfortunately for them they have no experience to tell them that this ride and destination is not what they were asking for. If they knew you'd never be able to catch them in the first place.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:14 - ID#7568)

We only go long commodities. I know the SP's look like a commodity these days but... The bet here is the firm's money. We had a good day in the Rupiah ( +10% ) so there is some spare change floating around in the discretionary pot. Maybe Peutz can get in and work some magic for us late in the day.

I have refrained from giving you any opine on the fluffy white balls mostly because I ain't got one. Our system has no position at the moment and entry does not look immenent. On the fundamental side, keep your eyes on the beans. At about 10.5 to 1 beans to cotton things start to look interesting. Since a lot of cotton land is good for beans ( beans are also easier to grow ) the substitution effect will play if beans get going. Don't take this 10.5 number too strongly, it is only one that rings a bell from the recesses of my dwindling memory. I will run some historical charts later in the day to get a better idea.

Happy Trading

(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:28 - ID#356379)
silver future

WetGold: You must be desparate to ask my opinion about the future of silver! Thanks for the thought, anyway.

I must admit to being a reformed commodity futures trading advisor. I am no longer a CTA because what passes for my "vision" of the future is usually long term, and I get killed in the short term. I like to take a position that fits long cycles ( and seasonal tendencies ) and for which I have some knowledge of the underlying fundamentals. In the past few months, however, very little is making sense to me. So I cynically suggest that the price of the PMs will go up when enough of the big guys have established their long positions. We will see a price move in the stocks of the producers long before we see a run up in the underlying metals.

Okay, having said all that, I expect that Hecla, for example, will run up to 80% of its next up cycle high within 4 months of its long term low. So...if the low is now in, the New Year should look bright,

(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:33 - ID#386276)
You mean like this. Prem opened at 1800.
It could well be the bull brigade today.
The feds started it last week and now the bulls will finish it.
The dow is holding nicely just below resistance.
A blow through 7660 will present the opportunities for a breakout.

Hong Kong gold ends higher on short-covering

Group of 15 Condemns Currency Threat

Avid chatter:
I have long suspected that they were meddling in the markets, even though I do not think that is allowed, but many things can be done in the name of National Security. That is the magic phrase which allows all rules to be brushed aside. One would have to wonder about when 'they' would want to unwind those positions too! Interesting post.

The same people who control Slick Willy also control the press. Simple. I cant say that I KNEW it would happen, but I strongly suspected it. If you'll look back at last Monday nite's chat, you'll see that I said that Slick would speak and----this is from memory and may not be word for word---I said the first 40 or 50 spoos points of the rise would come in a few minutes. Really. BTW. How many bond and spoos contracts do you think Hillary's Swiss representatives buy or sell on big "report" days?

Thanks for exposing the greatest manipulation scheme of the twentieth century to ***. I'm sure the American public will sympathize with you in chastising the government for doing something so repugnant as providing liquidity to a market in the midst of a correction.

liquidity is one thing and certainly within the scope of central bank, but market manipulation is repugnant. Probably the only thing that could kill this great bull market is 'help' from our ever caring overly 'parental' government.

you sound dubious. Do you think the premium went from 4.21 to 34.96 in less than 15 minutes because the whole world decided that just the sight of Slick at the podium was motivation enoughn to cause them all to enter market buy orders for spoos at the same time?

I was worried on Monday afternoon, when Rubin came out on the Treasury steps to spread oil on the waters. I knew if they were ready to give up on the bull, someone other than Slick, himself, would do the talking. When I heard later that evening that Slick would say a few words about the market the next morning, I knew what to look for, and posted it here. I bet most of the chatters thought I was kidding when I said that we'd get several dozen spoos points in a few minutes the next morning when Slick spoke. I wasnt. They have tied him so closely to this bull market that he will live and die with it, as I and $.02 and a couple other "old heads" have said here. He is the greatest spoos salesman in history. As soon as the first up bar was painted after the little pullback, I was buying bigtime. It was so good, I didnt trade any more last week. For a day or so, I had thoughts of maybe never trading again. I know that I will never see anything like Monday and Tuesday again. It would have been a good time to go on to that big trading room in the sky.: ) It dont get any better than that.

so what happens when mommy sam wants/needs to unload 'her' spoos???

i have beel using Yahoo international markets and they are still showing Friday close. Tech must be sleeping. which is something i should aslo do. c ya in the AM. Hillary is gonna hold her long position for a few days then when she sells ---better get out of the way.

Didn't anyone notice Tuesday that the DOW was up almost 200 points before the Nasdaq and S&P came off its lows???????????????? A trader may not care, but a citizen has to be appalled that Rubin's firm had ample notice to position. However, record volume down days, since early 1929 anyway, have ALWAYS led to quick reversals!!!!! And, perhaps have always had 'bank' intervention.

I expect they would prefer to sell into strength. Look for big volume with no movement... could/would our government risk riding a significant downturn lower? Would that selling or absence of further buying actually cause the sell off they were/are trying to prevent?

I had a TS high alarm at zero on the @prem at the open, so I'd know when it went positive. It hit 35 within a few minutes after it got "out of the hole". From -32.98 to 34.96 in less than an hour. WHADDA BUY!

The assumption that this market is a 100% manipulated commodity is asinine; there were buyers of stock out there Tuesday morning including myself. Regardless, I'm just trying to see what the point of *** post is. You can cry about manipulation every time the market snaps into short covering out of selling climax. So what.

you are extremely naive if you believe that the whole thing wasn't planned..... That is why I had total confidence to go long at the first reversal bar.....I knew it the night before......just had to be.

Now I dont think they CAN do it, but Tuesday leads me to think that they might try to keep this thing up and going higher till Hillary is sworn in in Jna. '01. I have always suspected, but Tuesday morning was the first time that I KNEW, beyond the shadow of a doubt, that they were actively buying SPOOS.

jeeezzzz, this is better than the x-files. Fact is IF they are doing it, they are very bad boys. But then the neo-socialist america does not really believe in the free market..... hmmmm.

I have NEVER said what you say. All I said was that they were buying spoos tuesday. I aint complaining, cause i was too. I said enough on the chat Mon nite to give you a "heads up". You can take it or leave it, but deesse and i knew it, and talked about it. We both had the best day we ever had, so we aint complaining. We're just stating a fact. And, We're both long term bears to boot!

Market crashes last Monday on record volume; sell off continues Tuesday morning, then low and behold the buying started and the volume was unbelievable. Did we doubt it? No. This from my Tuesday Morning Email, "Instinctually, I know we are going to have one heck of a rally some time today or tomorrow." Record volume lows are almost always a buy even in the worst of crashes or bears....but not a good idea to buy the reversal highs. ------- The DOW shot up 200 points while the S&P and the Nasdaq stayed near the bottom, but finally the buying spread. Now we 'know' why they came out with the new DOW futures. : ) It doesn't matter whether the Fed was buying DJX, or whether the Funds were, or, as I suspect, the whole industry and government--all part of the 'plunge protection' plan I am sure. Makes no difference, though. In 1987 this sort of manipulation worked. The skeptical, or even those waiting for a retest, were left behind in the dust. --------- So, the question is, on a fundamental basis, will the manipulation work as investors take comfort in a 'government insured stock market' or will more say, "Hey, I don't think I like this sort of manipulation?" I think more and more are saying, "The sidelines are the place to be until the market shows its true colors." The wildest bulls are very nervous and frantically trying to find reasons to justify a bottom and buy. They don't seem to be actually buying though....just talking about it. Shorts are afraid the 'protection' will work and they will lose their nice profits or be killed. Do you know what happens to a market with the bulls on the sidelines and the shorts not there to give a floor to the market? Tuesday and Friday's little short-squeeze just might have been the worst thing the bulls could have done. ----------- Again, manipulation worked in 1987, but Investech Research says, "a record DJIA point drop... followed by a panic selling the next morning... but then suddenly reversing to the upside on volume that is over 50% above ANY previous record... followed by wild jubilation on Wall Street... is the exact event that led ( later ) into the 1929 Crash. Back then, it was the New York bankers that triggered the upward reversal." -----------

I saw the premium change too. I had my line drawn at -154 dow points. It overshot a few points. but when I saw the change I thought my eyes were lying to me.

Gee the thought of buying stocks after the S&P500 lost 120 points in four days on cockamamy news of Asian tumult must have been foreign to everyone but the manipulators. I must be naive!

market manipulation has NEVER worked, except in the short term. Price controls have always been doomed to failure in the longer run.

So, the point is, it could be that the investors are simply being set up for a later crash......where the little guy is killed and the 'manipulators' become unbelievably wealthy. Beware, both bull and bear, I say.

think about it. A president who knows that without the political underpinning of rising mutual funds, he's "up the river", announces that he's gonna say a few words about the market EARLY in the trading day, after the biggest point sell off in history. Would you be a seller?

I was not directing those comments in opposition to anything you said. I do, however, find cries of manipulation amusing and pointless. Neither you or I know why the premium went from 4.26 to 35.xx in 15 minutes. Who cares, just get out there and make money. I know you do, and hope others do too.

if u don't call that MANIPULATION....geeze what is? i hope this thing TANKS in SPITE OF THE KLINKTON'

congress better subpoena...the Klinkton's and their trading advisors...then maybe they could look at bill's privates at the same time before the Jones trial...: )

otc: back off a minute, man. You keep saying, "buying STOCKS". It aint buying STOCKS that takes the premium up50 points in half an hour. Its buying SPOOS---spoos at market----spoos at ANY price. Surely you know what the premium is.

why the heck was the DOW up 200 points and the nasdaq and spx at its lows???????

I KNOW 2 things for sure. 1 ) It wasnt someone using their OWN money buying those spoos. 2 ) Klinton and/or his handlers knew it was gonna happen, or they would NEVER have said on Mon nite that he would be saying "a few words about the market in the a.m." Knowing those two things, I make certain deductions and draw certain inferences.

Buying the futures almost didn't they started buying the dow stocks ( only 30 ) drive it up.....the futures just weren't doing the job.

This harkens back to my point about the commodisation of this market. It ain't a commodity, it's a stock market, and your beloved SPOOS are a derivative of stocks. The link between the futures and cash through arbitrage is not as simple as many would like to believe; if you knock down the spoos excessively to the point where there is a void of selling in the cash market to hit large bids, that arbitrage will fail, and you're going to see the premium recoil fast as all hell. Surely you know what a derivative is.

I don't know why the Dow was up 200 points while the nasdaq and spx were at their lows. Do you? And how can I profit from whatever you're insinuating? Because otherwise, I simply don't care : )

The Stock market has always been manipulated, read some history. J. Gould, JP Morgan C. Vanderbilt, Whitley to name but a few. But now there are so many different vehicles to ride it's amazing and hard to keep track of.

ok. nuff sid. I aint gonna try to convince you. But when the market sells off again, if they announce that Slick is gonna "say a few words" about it, I'll be buying. I aint gonna say no more aboutit. I'll just be buying. IN SIZE.

Don't care will lose in the market and lose in life. Of course, the trick is to out guess the manipulators.....that's what *** and I did.

According to my charts and support lines: and I may be wrong. It looks to me If they hadn't come in buying this market may have gotten away to the downside. What you say ***? Some very critical support on some indexes and key stocks had broken major lines according to my charts.

Can you profit from it? Whaddya talkin about? 44 handles in 20 minutes---Id say you can. Did you read my post here on monday nite where i said that when Klinton spoke, we'd get 30 or 40 handles in a few minutes? I said it.

Right. A dozen of the Dow dogs were goners and about a dozen more were starting to wheeze.

Bonds getting nailed, spoos up 600. Must be manipulation : )

here's another thought, just mine of course, When the market had just recovered all of it's huge loss on Tues. why did some of the firms come out knocking the teckies on Wed a.m? Could it be they have sold off their inventory and want to pick up some intc dell msft etc at about half price to replinish? Intc recovered its losses and gained a few points on Tues.

I really don't know. I defer to the knowledge of our expert resident market timers such as *** and *** for the inside scoop on manipulation; I'm just a simple trader who buys the dips and holds.

Well FWIW I think if they do try to push the high flying techs down to replinish that must mean a new up wave will begin. If they didn't want them then I wouldn't think so. What u think?

back to the talk of manipulation and out guessing the manipulators. What bravado !

its nothing new,is it? someone is always complaining about market manipulation of some sort

I guess so but I would think that the market is 'bigger' than that. I mean for a bunch of American politians no more. One never knows. We will have to wait for the Oliver Stone flick to be sure !!!!!

The USA markets are about as manipulated as Bre -x was!!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:37 - ID#57232)
@the_turning_point - Gold?
#34610: Thanks for the October post data -- didn't know posted that much. Will try to keep it down.
Donald, Nick ( @Aussie ) : please don't slow down because your posts are so informative!
#34610: I don't know how this information could be used to discourage the personal attacks that are so disruptive -- ideas?

Book review
(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:37 - ID#26363)
"Everything You've Heard About Investing Is Wrong!"
William Gross believes the bull markets are drawing to a close and we are entering "Era of 6 Percent"--a time of disinflation, lower interest rates, disciplined markets and slow but steady economic growth. He makes the following argument:

1. Global trade will keep a lid on wage growth. With labor's influence dimished, only commodity prices remain a threat to the low-inflation scenario.

2. CB's and governments must now listen very closely to stock, bond, and currency investors/speculators who, if they do not like what they see, can quickly withdraw from a nation's economy causing chaos. This trend almost insures that governments will not let inflation accelerate over the next several years.

3.Demographic trends are extremely positive for low rates of inflation. Aging baby boomers are leaving the high consumption years of teen to thirties.

4. Corporate productivity may be in a secular uptrend that will continue for some time.

5. Debt levels are excessively high among govs, corps, and US consumers. This will help keep inflation under control.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:39 - ID#255284)
NZ Prime Minister Quits
News, Prime Minister of NZ, Jim Bolger announced late last night his retirement at the end of this month. A bloodless leadership coup replacing Bolger with Jenny Shipley, who will become NZ's first woman Prime Minister on about 1 December.

This announcement raises interesting issues both constitutional and political and therefore impacting on the economy. Constitutionally because in NZ's first ever Coalition Government, the much vaunted Coalition Agreement that divided the spoils ( I beg your pardon ) allocated cabinet responsibilities is now in tatters. Expect a call from the Alliance Opposition party for a vote ( unsuccesful ) of no confidence in the Government, today.

She's gonna be a bit bumpy down here for a while


battening down the hatches, me hearties....

(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:42 - ID#188244)
Here's a site that may be of interest- more on market manipulation and Greenspan and gold:

(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:45 - ID#269409)
@ DA, Your S&P Puts
DA, didn't you see my early AM post? I TOLD YOU the DOW was going up this week. Re your S & P Puts, I'm doing all I can for you. I bought a 5% stake in Magellan on Friday ( 5% of my 401K ) , anothjer 5% on the market open today, and a 10% stake in my own company on the open today. ( LOR ) .

To re-iterate. Fears of a crash or completely unfounded. The economy is the strongest it's ever been. The Asian crises was a blip and will have little if any long term negative effect on U.S. markets other than to forestall a FED rate increase and slightly slow our exports of high tech, manufacturing technology.

Gold will trade in a narrow range, the DOIW will end the week higher, hence my positions. If it drops I'll average in some more. NO CRASH is forthcoming in 1997, 1998, or 1999 unless many of our ecomomic fundamentals shift dramatically negative.

Bears who have been perpetually wrong for a decade, are STILL wrong. Totally wrong, completely wrong.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:51 - ID#7568)

Thanks so much for the assist. I knew I could count on you. We shorted the futures as opposed to buying puts. The implied vols are a bit rich for liking. Thanks again.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:53 - ID#269409)
@ George COle
GC re your 9:39. You'll note that the Green One in his latest testimony of last Wednesday, remians terrified of inflation in spite of the Deflation taking place in Asia, and the current lack of inflationary pressures. This being the case, it would appear that FED will not be loosening monetary policy anytime soon, nor will inflation become a major factor. I was leaning your way on a long term conventional bearish market being a possibility in 1998. Based on th emarkets response to last Monday, the success of the FED's reaction, the complete lack of panic or fear amongst long term "little guy" investors, and the overall strength of our economy ( which I believe is in the best condition it's ever been ) , I no longer believe a protracted Bear market, and especially a "crash" is anything short of the most remote of possibilities.

The DOW bounces off that 21 P/E ratio each time it approaches, yet always roars back. I think that'll continue to happen. Companies like Boeing and Applied Materials are a great buy right now since they've come way off their highs.


(Mon Nov 03 1997 13:55 - ID#320102)
Nick: Interesting Avid chatter. This manipulation of the markets should come as know surprise to anyone who has been listening to AG and the Plunge Protection Team. What happened to "free" markets? Where's the outrage?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:00 - ID#241277)
Soros Foreshadows
All ( + Kiwi ) ...Did anyone appreciate the significance of George Soro's comments ( see Kiwi's Nov1 @19:10 note ) in London to BBC radio on Saturday when he said "the markets need to be kept under some sort of control" avert wild fluctuations, ideally "an international authority dealing with supervision."

Is Soros "shelling the beaches", so to speak, by foreshadowing the agenda of he and the Rothschilds to ultimately establish a new ( read=one ) world order in which a singular authority supervises and sets monetary and trade policy? This quote sent chills down my spine....are THEY getting that confident that THEIR agenda will succeed...that out of the ashes of market calamity the masses ( the public ) will plead for such a "authority" to supervise the inherently unstable heterogenous markets and currencies?

The more Soros speaks and spills the agenda of THOSE that pull this puppets strings, the more is revealed. The LBMA expose, the connection of Soros with Rothschild, the information provided by the Manipulated Trader ( thanks to Vronsky ) all point to a confidence game of unparalled which the little guy is sure to loose and from the destruction of the markets, as we know them, will come the obvious and practical solution....a new world order....

Who will be left to cry foul?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:01 - ID#320102)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:02 - ID#255284)
TED Spider in your woodpile

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:09 - ID#339186)
The financial markets will be britting shicks on Wednesday when it will be revealed that two major Japanese banks are insolvent and several USA institutions are exposed. On top of it all, gold will jump $22.50 in a single day. Does Glenn know this? Probably, but he maybe busy setting up his long position. You have been forwarned.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:23 - ID#289171)
@know more than you
That's exactly what you are NOBODY. Japan will not affect us directly at all. Your a smuck.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:30 - ID#30116)
ID#346140 -- It's nice to see that I came in at the top of something! Most posts in one day on 10/28 and number 4 for the month. I'll have to try harder. :- ) )

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:31 - ID#243180)
"America's budget deficit fell to $22.6 billion in the year to the end of September, more than $1 billion less than the administration forecast at the beginning of the year, and the lowest since the early 1970's"
( Economist 01-07 Nov, page 6 ) .

What do these fundamentals tell us as to the future of gold/silver and fiat currency ?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:31 - ID#269409)
@ Nobody, Japan crise, Asian crises
May I remind you that since 1990, Japan has been in crises in which their market has crashed to some 50% of it's former valuation, and they have been in recession since that time. This was supposed to be the trigger that would destroy the DOW. Did it? Then it was Mexico and Latin American crises after that, this would destroy the DOW. Did it? Now it's the piddly Southeast Asian markets, smaller trading partners than Japan. Will it? The answer is a resounding NO! Let's get a clue folks, our market is a behemoth compared to these third rate markets. They won't bring us down, it'll work in the reverse. They'll eventually have to emulate our economic policies to succeed.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:33 - ID#269409)
@ Puetz
Market crashing UP today again Puetz. What happened to those Friday/Monday margin calls causing all out meltdown? Don't you ever get tired of being right all the time?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:35 - ID#318123)
Chinese leader got what he wanted from those free wheeling American people, swak of Boeing Jets, Nuclear Reactors and a view of the sacred ground where freedom and independence was borne. The Prez did the swooning and Jiang will do the gooning, send twice as many arms to Iraq or who ever pays in Gold/Oil we don't have to listen to the over pompous American zealots. I hope that the Dow goes sky high within the nexted few months and desecrates those currency peasants, yeh crush everyone on the face of the earth, the USA is omnipotent. All is well, don't worry be happy, we'll be the talk of the town when visiting overseas. "WHAP" or "BOOM" I just don't see a promising future gloating to all the countries who are losing their asses!! Could come back to haunt us what do you think??

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:35 - ID#335190)
nobody @ 14:09
I suspect that your warning is correct. Although, the timing maybe the questioning factor. On this note of Japan Banks, and USofA Financial Institutions being exposed. I request, either from you, or from others at this site, to assist in obtaining information written in a book, I once read, and the only detail I have from memory is the name of the book. "The De-Industrialization of America" Author unknown. The gest of the book, was the ownership, of the Japan Industries, was in fact the USofA Corporate America, compliments of the Second World War, and the Marshall Plan. Can anyone reference this material. Thanks.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:36 - ID#243180)
While Singapore pledged $10 B and Malaysia $1B who is tracking to "quid-pro-quo" ???

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:38 - ID#411149)
John Disney- by the way what is the name of the mine?

Wet Gold- I did not understand your question and you probably would not
understand my answer and I ain't got time to BS. Thanks!

Tally Ho

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:40 - ID#269409)
@ Soros, Gold, manipulation
Could the following article from Fridays business news indicate that Soros is planning an attack on Gold prices?

Friday October 31 6:49 PM EST

Soros group cuts Newmont Mining stake

WASHINGTON, Oct 31 ( Reuters ) - A group including international financier George Soros said on Friday it has reduced its
stake in Newmont Mining Corp to 4.79 percent or 7,485,177 common shares.

In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the group said it sold 1,265,900 shares of the Denver-based
company between Sept. 30 and Oct. 23 at $44.86 to $45.27 each.

The EEEEEEEeeeeeevil Soros and his conspiratorial Jewish banker minions are at it again eh Zardoz, Miles, et al? The Rothschilds , 5th column, One worlder, Tri-Lateral COmission, Illuminati folks are once again pulling the wool over the eyes of the world and controlling / manipulating the price of everything. Oil, stocks, Gold, Pork Bellies...

Damn, how DO they get away with it when they have been "exposed" here on Kitco day after day? And in reports and expose's world wide since the early part of the century? When will the world see the light?

Or could it be that the world is in on the "conspiracy" and only the hard money investors here on Kitco are out of the loop? Could Soros actually be part of an Alien invasion force? That's my theory. It's "Pod People" that are manipulating the dang markets. Wake up AMerica!!!

Hey LGB, will you stop attacking Poops?
(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:44 - ID#353132)
He can't respond because he will only continue to post as long as he's helping people make money
Stephen Mooney - Since you are reluctant to post these figures,
I will help out:

Flag ( September '96 to September '96 ) : -6%

Coca-Cola : +17%
McDonalds : +13%

If you feel this is an unfair comparison,
please choose whatever one-year time-frame
you wish.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:44 - ID#243180)
RAY: I could perhaps clarify any question that I have of you but since you have no time for BS I will not repost a clarification - After all, the reason I am @home is due to my total lack of understanding in financials. Maybe one day I'll get a job to pay the wages of my gardener to get a "grounding' on what it is like to work for a living. Until then, good luck on your job.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:53 - ID#403159)
@big bucks
I see some of you are still trying to short the stock indexes. By weeks end you wished you listened to me. You better cover now because none of you will get away with selling America short. Were making sure of that.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:54 - ID#31868)
Leaner: I could not agree more.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:54 - ID#267276)
Please repost your 13:42. It was not found. Thanks

(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:56 - ID#364147)
@ capebreton
Two day long ocean storm is finally leaving our isolated little island and heading out ta sea.....Dow up 180 ( yawn..... ) Aurator: Thanks!! EB: Did you do more than look???.....Tort: good one!!....

from: ZARDOZ
(Mon Nov 03 1997 14:57 - ID#331438)
@Earl, George Cole, JTF
Earl, George Cole ( and JTF ) : Enjoy your mature commentary. Indeed it is sad that the only positions we can take today is one of distrust for governments and institutions who supposedly act to safeguard our welfare. The more I read and learn about manipulation, along with the "manufactured" abrogation of any moral or ethical responsibility, the more I am saddened by the folly
of our greedy pursuit of wealth and power. To what end...for short term worldly comforts, for dominion, for security? Are these not all fleeting,not all subject to the same dust?

I am more inclined to JTF that "gold will not trade" in a currency nuclear war....THEY may have already destroyed any possibility for a physical or stock gold market to behave as it should, by "buying" up and consolidating control over the physical supplies in a game of shelling the beaches in preparation for the ultimate nuclear currency holocaust.

Indeed, NO ONE on Kitco, neither ANOTHER, the Red Baron, JTF, or others, have answered the question with evidence as to WHO "has" bought the Australian gold and WHO "intends" on buying the Swiss gold. WHO is manipulating gold prices on "rumours" of gold sales ( Swiss ) and benefiting on price depression "after" the fact ( ala Australian sale ) ?

I am increasingly inclined to agree with JTF and my own intuition that the free and true gold market that we may have known is long since been killed for an agenda well beyond our scrutiny to comprehend. If that agenda constitutes ( as Soros I believe has blatantly foreshadowed ) a move to a single world currency out of the nuclear holocaust of hetergenous currencies, then it is very logical to kill the goose ( gold ) that would lay an alternative golden egg as competitor to that zealous objective of a single world currency, single global monetary policy, single investment playing field ( MAI ) , and the destruction of all other forms and means of maintaining soverignty.

In the end, we are all likely to be losers, even gold bugs...though we will no doubt to tested in fire as we are as the contrarions of this secular market.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:01 - ID#269409)
@ WetGold
Re your question on the falling deficit "What does this tell us?" When was the last time the Govts. forecast was less rosy than the final actual numbers?

What it "tells us" is that we have the strongest economy in our nations history. It tells us that the runaway debt bubble theorists and Gloom and Doom crash theorists are as Clueless as they have been for 15 years now. It tells us that inflation is not lurking around the corner ( nor is deflation for that matter ) . It tells us that we better start believing in our own economy and the strength of American Business/The American Worker instead of making wildly speculative Pessimistic forecasts.

Only a complete Moron with no faith in our system, our people, or our economy, would be preaching Gloom and Doom at this point, given the state of our current economic fundamentals.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:03 - ID#339186)
@Heavy Hitler
It will not work. There are forces at work beyond your control. You have a great deal of justifiable pride in the strength of the USA financial markets. The kind of pride that goeth before the winter. Or, can you say FALL?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:09 - ID#31868)
Zardoz: It would seem that there are a few solid market watcher's that are inclined to believe that 8000tons of gold is on the short side and or referred to as gold loans. This would indicate if true that the supressed prices could wildly fluctuate to the say the least if these positions are not met.

I am not well versed in these numbers and rely on the opinions of the Authors. The game is getting very close in some estimates in being played out as this gold will have to be accounted for. Anybody who studys the numbers would see the obvious and glaring contradictions between that which is reported and the actual realities of the situation.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:13 - ID#31868)
LGB: I noticed my bottle of Cuervo was a tad on the shy side of the label when I awoke this morning. Have you helped yourself to a shot or two.

Your last post seems as wild in one direction as one can be. Do you really believe that the US economy is stronger then it has ever been, in all our history?

You and I disagree on this issue greatly.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:17 - ID#403159)
@big bucks
NOBODY, You know squat. My friends and I control hundreds of billions of dollars. Yes, we move the markets. All you do is sit there and watch while we take your money. Go ahead and go short and watch what happens.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:19 - ID#188244)
Dig Deep- It worked for me, so keep trying.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:20 - ID#269409)
@ Tolerant1
To answer you Tolerant, YES our economy is better than it's ever been. We've never had a sustained Bull market like this one, nor sustained economic growth minus inflation like we have today. Add in falling deficits, diversity in the economy, strong abalnce of trade, strong dollar, strong earnings, highest productivity in the world, and a few million other fundamentals ( giving myself a slightly hyperbolic license ) and you can quite easily see that only the denseist of Morona's could ever conclude we're on the verge of a "crash" in the DOW OR in our economy.

You've been reading this site too long my friend. Wake up and smell the coffee. I enjoy this site, get some good links here, enjpy the debates, and especially enjoy the constant stream of comedy material such as "Zardoz" posts today. However, I also read REAL analysts from other sites and publications and that's where my most valuable input comes from.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:24 - ID#31868)
LGB: I too read a great many newsletters, articles and source from many differing entities. You and I clearly disagree. We are at diametrically opposed ends of the "new paradigm" spectrum.

No more no less, we just disagree. That's all.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:28 - ID#269409)
Today's article re coming Depression
Yet another article indicating the total meltdown, Crash, economic weakness, collapse, depression in our ecomomy which looms just around the corner.

Monday November 3 2:43 PM EST

Boeing sees demand for 300 or more MD-11s

SEATTLE, Nov 3 ( Reuters ) - Boeing Co commercial airplane group President Ron Woodard said Monday the company
expects demand for 300 or more MD-11 jets over the next 20 years, with 80 percent of orders coming from cargo customers.

Woodard, in a conference call with reporters, also said that Boeing expects to deliver 550 commercial jets next year, including
Douglas models, up from 375 to 385 this year.

Earlier Boeing announced it plans to phase out production of the MD-80 and MD-90 models by about mid-1999.

Woodard said Boeing plans to continue production of the MD-11 at the current rate of one a month for the foreseeable future,
although he said the company will explore possible derivative models that could boost demand and production.

And he said that while Boeing is committed to producing and delivering the initial 50 MD-95 jets ordered by AirTran,
formerly known as ValuJet Inc ( VJET ) , a final decision on the long-term fate of the model will be made in the first quarter of
next year, probably in January.

He said the decision will be made after discussions with suppliers and customers make clear whether the twin-engine, regional
jet can be ``financially viable.''

He said Boeing's market analysis indicates worldwide demand over the next 20 years for about 2,300 jets in the MD-95
category of short-haul airplanes with from 80 to 120 seats.

He said with airlines mainly looking to replace their regional jets rather than expand their fleets, Boeing's challenge is to get
MD-95 costs low enough so existing jets become ``financially obsolete.''

He said the MD-95 would compete with new and used jets in the category including models made by Fokker NV ( FOKNC.AS )
and British Aerospace Plc ( BA.L ) .

Woodard also said Boeing had completed flight-testing of the next-generation 737-700 and expected certification from the
Federal Aviation Administration ``momentarily.''

Certification and initial delivery of the jet to launch customer Southwest Airlines Co ( LUV ) had been scheduled for last month
but was delayed by a problem that required a redesign of the plane's horizontal stabilizer.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:30 - ID#39251)
Financier-Winemaker Rothschild dies.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:30 - ID#194311)
rock solid
Gold stable in slump-hit Thailand, despite world drop
BANGKOK, Nov 3 ( AFP ) - As world gold bullion prices hit a
12-year low last week, domestic gold prices in Thailand remained
stable as investors hedged against the plunging Thai currency, a
report said Monday.
Retail gold dealers in Bangkok predicted the price of the
precious metal would "remain stable or even move upwards" as the
baht slides against other currencies, which are becoming
increasingly hard to come by here.
"As long as the local currency remains weak, the price of the
yellow metal in the Bangkok market will be traded at prices that
will not move down," one trader was quoted by the Bangkok Post as
The price of the commodity hit a 12-year low of 311 dollars per
ounce last week. But the retail price in Thailand increased by 100
baht per 15 grammes ( 0.52 ounces ) .
And while the official price remained stable, traders said
unrecorded gold transactions were also growing.
"Unofficial, hence unreported, puchases of gold are said to be
increasing as more people turn to the precious metal at a time when
dollars and other currencies are becoming less accessible," the
Bangkok Post said.
"This gives some encouragement to local traders whose businesses
have been ravaged by a masssive 78 percent drop in sales in the
third quarter of 1997," the Bangkok Post said.
The Thai currency has lost 36 percent of its value against the
US dollar since its effective devaluation in July which sent
shockwaves across Southeast Asia.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:32 - ID#318123)
Iraq has got the N-bomb and the Americans are going to blow the thing up just like the bunkers of nerve gas they hit during the First Desert Storm. Ka BOOM BABY!! Its like a movie script hopefully they learnt the first time, how many years did it take for the government to except what the veterans were telling them, years. Saddam Eastwood favorite sayings "Make my Day Sucker" or "Improvise Baby." KKKK BOOOOM!!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:32 - ID#225283)
Heavy Hitter

What is your short term prognosis ( ten days ) for this market ( world wide. Do you feel that you have the kind of weight that will actually make ofr break a market.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:32 - ID#335190)
ZORDOZ @ 14:57
Right On! Reflection of present events, as put forth by you, sure gets one thinking of past standards of Citizenship eh! Greed, surpasses, all the standards of Kindness and consideration, the result being, such simplistic standards, are considered to be a weakness. Yes, the greedy citizen will win, but, what have they won. Sickness, is to be greedy, as is the sickness of hate. Money, is a useless piece of paper, life, is a value only for those citizens who wish to live. Death, is the reward of all. Vanities and vexation eh!

November 11th, is a time to remember, "LEST WE FORGET", these men and women, were not greedy.

Between July 28 1914 and November 11, 1918, some 10,000,000 young men were killed in that vast orgy of mass murder known as World War I. An estimated 20,000,000 more were maimed, crippled, burned, and wounded, their youth lost by mutilation. At the same time 13,000,000 civilians died in WWI's great holocaust; there were 10,000,000 refugees, 5,000,000 war widows and 9,000,000 war orphans

"The blood ran into the ground, the brains oozed out of the cracked skull and were licked up by trench-rats, the belly swelled and raised a generation of bluebottle flies..."

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:32 - ID#243180)
Some historical data ( I leave the analysis up to the experts ) :

1914: Federal Reserve Systems established.
1924: FED begins open-market operations.
1933: FDR and legal tender laws.
1934: FDR confiscates gold.
1942: Price controls re: WWII.
1945: Gold reserves decreased from 35% to 25%.
1964: 90% circulating silver coins last minted.
1968: Last 25% gold reserves removed.
1971: taken off gold standard completely.

From 1914 to 1971 the purchasing power of the dollar fell from about $1 to $0.11. This is also unique in historical terms ( as was earlier discussed regarding the current fundamentals of this market ) .

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:34 - ID#269409)
@ Puetz, D.A.
How those S&P Put options doing today? I see the market has now crashed UP 2.5%. The BUY signal on the LONG side was given during the early AM hours by the Omnisient LGB, but I won't crow ( much ) .

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:36 - ID#39251)
Boeing currently down 1.17%.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:40 - ID#424345)
Thoughts For Pod People
Some 72 million oz has left Comex warehouses since June. This amounts to roughly 14 million oz per month. D.A. believes that 100 million of the current comex stockpiles are *unavailable* at current prices. So somewhere around the end of December we hit effectively 0 oz of physical available for immeidate shipment... leading to a very merry christmas for all the silver shorts and other assorted pod people no doubt...

now how about this?
(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:40 - ID#341144)
just a suggestion
How bout instead of saying up or down when referring
to the Dow or individual stocks, from now on, let's say
manipulated up or manipulated down. For example,
under this system, we would say Boeing is currently
[manipulated] down 1.17%.

Boy, am I glad I got out when I did.

Hey, I hate to brag, but I did say earlier today
that the Dow was going to close up 200 and that
D.A. was going to continue making money as he always
does ( shorting S&P, long gold, long silver since $4.90, yawn )

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:41 - ID#269409)
@ News, Rothschild's death
DON'T believe that phony story about Rothschild's death. He faked it so that he could control the conspiracy strings of his One World Jewsih Banker conspiracy more discreetly, carrying out his nefarious secret plans undetectable by the geniouses on Kitco. He now resides in a private chatuea with encoded comminication limks directly to the Rockafellers, Soros, and all the other eeeeeeevel conspirators. The body being buried in Rothchild's grave will actually be that of one "Paul McCartney" who is some kind of music guy that died many years ago and has been held in a secret interim cold storage location awaiting this phase in the Onw Worlders eeevil secret plans.

( P.S., buy Boeing on this downtick )

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:44 - ID#31868)
A little known fact. Miriam Rothschild is the world's foremost authority on fleas. No kidding. Grand daughter of the first Lord Rothschild. I thought a little bit of trivia might work itself well into the day.

those of you chomping at the bit
(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:48 - ID#323306)
to catch a little Dow action
Remember, according to the Donald/gold ratio, the
Dow must climb above 8900 before it is safe to jump in.

Oh where, oh where has our crashing Dow gone?
Oh where, oh where can it be?
Seems October has past and its good times at last
'cause Poops was flushed out to sea

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:48 - ID#269409)
@ Hepcat
Hepcat, re your 15:40. Don't be crowing about your call on the DOW. You'll get no respect or recognition here. Your calls have been WAY too accurate in the past to be given any kind of credibility. You must be CONSISTENTLY wrong on most calls, make predictions based on advanced T.A. involving the Moon, and be a "nice guy" to boot in order to be afforded any measure of credibility here.

Also, please realize that a TRUE American will always be pessimistic about our ecomomy, our system, our people, our businesses, and that all successes in these areas are false and due to conspiracies and manipulations. A REAL AMerican would hate his country, his economy, his wealth, his system, and the American people and advise everyone to take the most negative view possible at all times. Got it?

Now, be a good Patriot and start losing money while pretending to make it by joining the Gloom and Doom Apocolypse now crowd you Moron!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:49 - ID#333131)
I enjoy your posts. However, I don't understand your and other's allusions to the end of a gold market. Do you mean that no gold will be available at any currency price? Will mines shut in and stop producing several 100 tons a year? I don't get it.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:50 - ID#31868)
WetGold: Does the 11 cents value of the current dollar take into account, ink, paper, press time, overhead and shipping. I always kind of wondered if counterfeiters took into account cost of manufacturing. Oh yeah, and shipping.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:57 - ID#269409)
@ Gold, Guns, Real Estate
Investors take note. You should be putting all available funds in Gold, Guns, and real Estate. What kind of Real estate. Well, I'm talking about plots of land far in the hills where you can begin a survivalist encampment to be protected with your guns. The greatest Nation / Ecomomy / System of all time ( United States ) is a mere mirage. A phony manipulated system held in place by the band aids of the One World Financiers who injtend to allow it to collapse as soon as they are ready for their final takeover.

The only safety is for you to quit your job, sell everything, build bunkers in Idaho, keep all your guns handy, and stand ready to battle the ATF and the One Worlders. America is on the verge of total collapse. Nuclear war with Iraq will take place next week. Evil Jewish bankers are behind it all and intend to bring us down.

( Off to but my supplies, LGB )

(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:58 - ID#390214)
Iraq threatens to shoot down U.S. planes
BAGHDAD, Iraq - Iraq has threatened to shoot down U.S.
surveillance planes, U.S. Ambassador Bill Richardson said Monday.
Richardson called the Iraqi threat an "irresponsible escalation" of the
crisis between the United Nations and Iraq over American weapons
inspectors and a threat to escalate the confrontation into a military
showdown. Earlier Monday, Iraq made good on a threat to turn back a
U.N. weapons inspection team that included an American. Hours later,
Iraq accepted a U.N. proposal for a three-member team to come to
Baghdad to try to defuse the crisis.

The Wichita Lineman
(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:58 - ID#374200)
@LGB - explain your bullishness on Boeing
LGB, my quasi-goldbug compatriot, tell me why the bullishness on Boeing. Are you a firm believer in areo-space ?, do you see strong demand for private jets ?, is the company comming into an earnings spree ?.
Perhaps you are like John Denver, a man who wants to soar like an eagle through the fluffy air, ahhh, that is the most godly feeling, to fly, free ! oblivious to, and far above the hum drum existance of mankind, his money, his lust, his greed, his ego, and his fear.....all nonsense, I say, not worthy of mindful consideration. You are an eternal in the sky, you feel no cold, your insides are pure air, pulsing with razor sharp awareness, yet so calm, you could witness the destruction of your own planet wit

Not George S. Cole
(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:58 - ID#341144)
But a damn fine imitation
Very encouraged by the ability of the XAU to hold on to any
type of gains ( .25% ) in the face of massive intervention and
mind control by outside forces to keep this puppy down. Remember,
bullion leads stocks, or the other way around. This strength
in the XAU, something which would have sent it reeling one month
ago, is another indication that the gold bull, while not
quite here just yet almost this instant, is rounding the
last turn on the final lap in the big race could be a
photo finish and did I hear a knock at the door? This indicates
to me that gold could finish up or down either less than 20 or
more than 20 dollars tomorrow or sometime this week or not.

The Wichita Lineman
(Mon Nov 03 1997 15:59 - ID#374200)
@LGB - explain your bullishness on Boeing
LGB, my quasi-goldbug compatriot, tell me why the bullishness on Boeing. Are you a firm believer in areo-space ?, do you see strong demand for private jets ?, is the company comming into an earnings spree ?.
Perhaps you are like John Denver, a man who wants to soar like an eagle through the fluffy air, ahhh, that is the most godly feeling, to fly, free ! oblivious to, and far above the hum drum existance of mankind, his money, his lust, his greed, his ego, and his fear.....all nonsense, I say, not worthy of mindful consideration. You are an eternal in the sky, you feel no cold, your insides are pure air, pulsing with razor sharp awareness, yet so calm, you could witness the destruction of your own planet with but a mere raise of your noble eyebrow !!!.
John Denver's Head does not bob in the sea in vain I say !!!. His legacy of flight has been re-incarnated through LGB !!. He will take up the challice of gods and soar with them !!!!!

Spud Master
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:00 - ID#273112)
Gold Plunge Team
Kitco readers, think about it: LGB, EB, and Heavy Hitter all claim to be very successful, pro-Dow, pro-paper advocates and traders wielding millions & billions of dollars. Yet they have time to swagger about here bragging on the zillions they make. Doesn't that strike any of us as strange?

Either they are sadists who perversely enjoy such taunting, or they are saints trying save us misguided gold-bugs. In either case, I don't see how they would have the time to bother with such a minute sideline as Kitco gold board.

I don't think they are either: I believe they are part of the Gold Plunge Team, doing their damndest to inject fear, doubt & uncertainty into the audience of silent Kitco readers. It would help to know just how big that silent audience is. Bart - would you mind telling us how many hits Kitco gets each day? If the Gold Eagle site is in the top 5% of all sites ( per Lycos? ) , might we assume that Kitco is as well? That's a BIG audience. An auidence with money & stocks. Who could upset the paper apple cart if they began to buy real assets. Gold. Silver. Platinum.

Part of the Gold Plunge Team's job would be not just to manipulate gold spot and futures prices, but also all manner of public opinion. My gut feeling that EB, LGB and HeavyH are part of the cabal is this:

1 ) If they are so accurate, as private persons they would not broadcast their strategy: it would be stupid. Like the Swiss announcing the sell of gold & ruinously driving down its price. You just don't do it. Unless you are dumb and want to end winning streak. May we assume they aren't dumb?

2 ) If they are in a cabal and trying to save us ( the 'saints' scenario ) then the cabal would consider them defectors and take unpleasant steps to quiten them down. Their posts would mysteriously end. Their posts have not ended.

3 ) If they are in they cabal, and they are not defectors, then they are, of course, agent provacateurs, here to 'poison the well'.

EB, LGB and HeavyH feel free to comment.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:01 - ID#269409)
@ Hepcat
Liked your 15:48 tune HepCat. But don't be so hard on Puetzky. Don't you know that he's not posting today because he's so busy with his broker taking advantage of today's "Buy" opportunity for S&P Puts of 300 in December??

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:03 - ID#403159)
@big bucks
PRIVATE INVESTOR, Please go to my postings on Friday. sorry short of time right now.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:05 - ID#243180)
LINEMEN: John Denver provided the world with his own brand of politically correct legerdemain that fooled the masses but the rest of us could see through his lifelong display of lies. His head did not float, bounce, or be re-incarnated - It splattered on the ground despite his egotism that led him to fly his experimental aircraft ( in light of his committment to the environment ) ... Oh the environment ... that is for the rest of us to adhere to but not him . He championed controls and regulations on emmissions for the rest of us but for him it was OK...

John Denver is DEAD and GONE and referencing him and/or his spirit is an insult to ghosts all over ...

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:06 - ID#334159)
HotAirBalooooooons up 1.5%

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:06 - ID#269409)
@ Spud Master
You're onto me SPudMaster. Rothschild gave me specific orders on what to post here just before he went into hiding. This will be my last post of today now that you have "Outed" me and discovered the truth. I have to seek new orders now from Soros and his underlings.

P.S., not to crow, but every single call I've made IN ADVANCE on Kitco has taken plac with 100% accuracy so far. Also, I invest only a puny 200K or so, not millions. ( However, that 200K was created from virtually NOTHING in about 10 years time due to the phony worthless paper I've been investing in instead of a GOOD investment like Gold ) .

I'm Just a little guy, puppeteer of my Plunge Team, Secret plan, One Worlder, 5th Column, Illuminati Jewish banker conspiracy bosses.

Spud Master
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:07 - ID#273112)
LGB not being subtle
Observe LGB's playing of the 'anti-semite' card to malign goldbugs in his/her 15:57 post. What next LGB? The race card? Goldbugs as child molesters? cannibals? Janet Reno fans?

LGB uses the very old tried-and-true method of diverting attention by emotion-laden statements that are, of course, false. Your bosses should employ someone with a more Machivelian subtley, LGB, if they mean to slander goldbugs.

Hey LGB, you are kickin' ass
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:09 - ID#353132)
and takin' names
Was this the second biggest up day ever?
Sorry, the second biggest [manipulated] up day ever?

Praise be to manipulation. Pop that champagne.
It's celebration time at Kitco.
George S. Cole's "traditional bear market" has arrived,
and I say "hope we're stay in the GSC traditional bear
market" forever.

Celebration time, come on
Celebrated good times, come on
There's a party goin on right here
A celebration to last throughout the year
So bring your good times, and your laughter to
We gonna celebrate and party with you
C'mon now

Who Cares
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:12 - ID#244209)
Question for LGB

LGB, a few.. no, no, MANY posts ago, you claimed that Japan had
been in recession for the past seven years. Yet, the Official
Word is that Japan has been in recovery for the past five.

Do you disbelieve the Official Word?

Yet, you promote the Official Word that the Deficit is now $22B.
Yet, the Official Word from the Treasury

is that the current Deficit is about $200B.

Are you Conspiracy Nut... or not? Exactly how do YOU pick
and choose from the Official Word?

I find it quite disturbing that you are inconsistent in this
respect. : )

Spud Master
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:12 - ID#273112)
LGB bored, needs more fun?
LGB, you aren't a good James Bond plot writer - such tired old scripts. You're just one of the rather ordinary group of people desperate to keep sound money ( gold ) from exposing unsound money ( worthless confidence-based paper ) . If you would spend more time trading the Dow and less time saving we poor loser goldbugs you would be evening richer. Besides, it is a well-known fact that Elvis is behind the New World Order. Sheesh! Get your conspiracy facts straight!

Goldbugs as anti-semenites?
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:16 - ID#383144)
I wish
This is clearly a genetic defect that should
not be passed on. The inability to discern
a good investment from dog crap is obviously
something transported in the seminal fluid
and the more goldbugs we have that are anti-
procreation the better, cause what youngster
would enjoy facing a lifetime of getting
stepped on repeatedly?

LBG, this is one of those times to pull a page
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:21 - ID#269165)
from the goldbug playbook
Put your fingers in your ears, stick out your tongue, and just keep

Up 3%. Up 3%. Up 3%. Up 3%

It's time to come together
It's up to you. What's your pleasure?
Everyone around the world

O.J. Simpson
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:24 - ID#191184)
GoldBugs, Race Card
Play the Race card? DO it I say! No wait, not the Race card, the MORON card would be more appropriate for Die Hard GoldBugs.

Who Cares
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:26 - ID#244209)
LGB, I Exist Only To Serve You

Please, LGB. Explain to me how Japan might have two major banks
insolvent after a five-year recovery?

If, as YOU claimed, the Japanese recovery is a fraud, is it then
possible that the U.S. recovery is a fraud?

If it is NOT possible, please provide an explanation on how the
125 million Japanese could have perpetuated such a ghastly fraud,
since YOU have claimed that the Official Word is a lie, and Japan
has actually been in a recession for the past 7 years. : )

And... and I can't figure this dang deficit stuff out. YOU claim
that the Deficit is now only $22B, yet the Treasury Department claims
it is $200B.

That thar is about a 1000% error rate, far off your regular average.

Will you include this miss in your overall batting average? : )

I humbly await your knowledge, oh Legendary Kitco Bumpkin.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:27 - ID#243180)
WhoCare: My posting of the deficit being $22.6B is directly from "The Economist". ( see earlier posting ) . Who has the misprint ???

you know what sealed it for me
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:27 - ID#188144)
was Bart Kitner coming on and saying the bottom was in
At any other site, the webmaster would have demurred.
But not old Barty - He's going to go down with the ship.

He thinks the bottom is in?
He hasn't even seen a bottom.

Gold to $300.
Soon. Very soon.

The Pod People
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:28 - ID#364408)

Who Cares
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:29 - ID#244209)
WetGold Sees Double!

WetGold, I am fully aware of what _The Economist_ says.

Perhaps it would do you and LGB some good to be equally aware of
what the actual Treasury statement says, too.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:32 - ID#269409)
@ Puetz
DOW crashes up to 3rd largest point gain ever! On the VERY DAY Puetz said margin calls would precipitate a total meltdown! Right on target again as usual Puetz. Ohh those eeeeevil conspiratorial manipulators. Foiling your analysis yet again with their Machievellian machinations!

Book review
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:32 - ID#26363)
"Perhaps the most important thing investors must recognize is that our recent fifteen-year bull market in bonds and stocks has been due to *declining* assets benefit more from the transition to lower inflation than from the actual lower inflation itself. Because of the declining trend of inflation, bond prices accelerated, P/E ratios expanded, and corporate earnings moved up smartly. These are the ingredients, nay, the very definition, of bond and stock bull markets, but when two of the three disappear, the bloom comes off the bull market rose."

Everything You've Heard About Investing Is Wrong! by William Gross

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:33 - ID#243180)
Who Care: I am not disputing eithers side as to the facts. I am merely questioning the validity of both sides in an effort to find truth. One of them is a typo with huge consequences as to how our strategy is played out.

My question again ( to ALL ) is: "What numbers are correct ?"

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:34 - ID#269409)
@ Captian Kirk
Beam me up Scott...I mean master Soros. There's NO intelligent life down here.

Spud Master
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:34 - ID#273112)
quality is as quality writes...
The scatological, perjorative & emotionally inflamitory nature of the pro-paper pushers here indicates how desperate they are to keep the market scam going. Gold has been beaten down for the last 15 years. Out of 5,000 years human recorded history. Doesn't even matter. It's an infintestimal blip in human history.

The Germans had their savings ( in paper ) wiped out in the Wiemar Republic hyperinflation. The Chinese had theirs wiped out in various Dynastie's inflations. The Mexican people have been raped with repeated Peso devaluations. The Thais, Malasians, Indonesians are getting raped as we read by paper currency devaluations. Those who have gold saved their wealth. Those who trusted the promises of their governments have paid.

You think the Dow is going higher? 10,000? 20,000? With the bald-face lie about the Federal debt ( $200 billion, not $20 billion ) ? With an unfundable Social Security? An unfundable Medicaid? Uninsurable Pension funds? With the interest on the Federal Debt EATING up nearly all current tax revenues by 2002? This whole great big Financial Pax Americana scam is rotting out at the seams. The containment crew is running around with duck-tape desperately trying to hold it together. The ONLY thing holding it together now is PUBLIC OPINION. They can not tolerate the most minute voice of dissent. It's that fragile.

Will LGB, EB and HeavyH appologize for the millions of us wiped out by a paper money/market collapse? No, of course not. Their confidence stems from simple luck riding the wave ( logs have such luck riding waves in rivers, but not due to any skill ) , or because they have inside information.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:37 - ID#353211)
Leonard Nimoy
LGB: your attack on the ridiculous proliferation of conspiracy theories certainly has its place here, and you have the wit to do it well but please let's not have another repetitive game of you harping incessantly and wastefully over the same things, all day. If you have a good point shouldn't it come across without so much repetition? I realize you're having fun, but c'mon. You're almost certainly wrong in reasoning that a crash can't occur just because the economy is strong. The economy was growing plenty faster in 1929 than it is now. I of course don't mean to say we're in for a '29 style crash just because that darn economy is growing again : ) The point is to examine *why* the economy is growing ( primarily unsustainable credit expansion, combined with a massive speculative bubble -- just like what caused impressive growth in late 20's ) . And no matter what kind of growth you expect for future years, the rise in stocks over the last 3 years or so is obviously ridiculously optimistic -- a huge speculative bubble. I hope you understand that the collapse of a bubble is sometimes *extremely* damaging to the real economy. Before you dismiss all doom-n-gloomers as crackpots, please educate yourself about the "speculative bubble" argument, maybe you can start by reading

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:39 - ID#269218)
Stock-market's "Achilles' Heel" : )

#1. Grains/soybeans -- next bull move to $9.00/$10.00 -- begins today;

#2. Energy-grp./C-Oil -- poised to 'follow-suit' S.Hussein will help it reach $24-$25/bbl., probably well before the end of the year;

#3. Gold & Silver -- resume their bull market.

Who Cares
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:40 - ID#244209)
Wet 'n' Wild Gold Bullion!

Why is it important to know which set of numbers is "correct"?

Is not the idea of "correctness" merely an illusion, played for
for the benefit of quantitativanal goldbugs?

What does it matter if there is a "misconcept" as to the "true"
matter of the Deficit?

After all, I myself have found no less than FOUR different estimates,
ranging from $22B to over $400B. : )

"It is by will alone that LGG sets the DOW in motion.
It is by the Juice of Jack D that thoughts acquire speed,
Seattle acquires planes,
The gains become a warning.
It is by will alone I maintain a contradictory notion"

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:49 - ID#18970)
@Technicals/ Its VERY Simple
As per my technical recommendations of Fri. nite. "Go long gold after it has been sold down to prevent safe haven investing when a crisis situation exists. Wait til the mkts stabalize and go long as this is when the manipulators cover their shorts. Stay long until the designated resitance point on the charts then go short or stay long and buy a protective put. Here you are looking for shortage silver to overcome gold and cause a short lived gold breakout. Going long silver and short gold is another way to play gold when it reaches the indicated technical resistance point. If you doubt this works check you charts.

Who Cares
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:50 - ID#244209)
LGB, Master Conspiracist!

Master LBG, I eagerly await the next chapter, the expansion as it
were, of your "Japan in Recession" conspiracy theory. : )

After all, I have never heard the like from any of the Official
Sources. Where DID you dream this one up from?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:51 - ID#41182)
I don't think it is EVER going to stop raining here. With all the negative sentiment against gold on THIS of all sites, the contarian in me says I should go out and buy some. Feels like a bottom to me.


(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:52 - ID#289349)
LGB - Yep things are just going great in this great country. I was just looking at how great things are in USA Today this morning. There was this picture of several California deputies holding down a screaming woman. One of the deputies is prying open the womans eyelids while the other deputy stands by with a q-tip dipped in pepper spray. At the time the woman was chained to a steel pipe. This is the government you claim we have no reason to fear, in action. This is the government you tell us to trust?

you haven't even seen irrational exhuberance
(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:53 - ID#188144)
but maybe if you hum a few bars

The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong


The Dow is back
The Dow is back
The people that said
It wasn't back
Are smoking crack
Had heart attacks
And broken backs
Analysis lack
Eat lunch from a sack


Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Where is gold
Where is the Dow

Who was right
Who was wrong

Who was right
Who was wrong

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:54 - ID#431263)
Herr Spud--Give the paper meisters hell from me too! If we're bein' called such unprintables now, what will we be called once this whole paper charade has been run through the paper shredder and abandoned in some God-forsaken monetary landfill? Gott im Himmel! The market manipulation this past week has been so obvious and so blatant as to be criminal! Yet there's so much worthless paper out there the big boys have got to ratchet up bids to give the little guys false hope that the worst is now over and they should borrow even more money from their pension plans and home equity and credit cards to get even more fully invested in these once-in-a-lifetime equity bargains! So that the buying pool doesn't dry up before they have gotten out at the little guys expense! This scam will be perpetuated just as long as it takes to distribute all this inventory to the little and NOT ONE SECOND LONGER! And then then END WILL COME! And guess who will be shortin' all the way down! You got it! The scheisshead scam meisters! Anybody who believes in today's rally after what happened last week DESERVES what the big boys have planned for 'em--THE BIGGEST PAPER DEBACLE IN WORLD HISTORY! Sell paper and buy gold NOW before it's all gone! We's about to learn the hard way what a BULL TRAP is all about!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:58 - ID#243180)
You Haven't Seen: Please don't waste space with your bullsh??. Go party somewhere and leave.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 16:59 - ID#201238)

Comex warehouse gold stocks FELL 20,682 oz today to 614,706 oz. Most of the drop, 17,706 oz was in the eligible stocks indicating delivery? against contracts. Only 302,152 oz of gold are eligible for delivery against 216,305 contracts. Where is the gold going to come from to cover the 213,000 uncovered contracts?

Comex silver stocks rose 544,265 oz today to 544,265 oz.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:01 - ID#335190)
Y2K @ SEC Worried
November 3, 1997
SEC tells firms to make millennium issue top priority

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt is telling all the nation's securities firms that bracing for year 2000 computer glitches must be their top priority.

"Preparing for the year 2000 should be of the highest priority for securities firms," Levitt wrote in letters to nearly 10,000
firms. Wall Street's top regulator said he is concerned that the securities industry is prepared in time for potential computer
problems arising in the year 2000.

"Unless modifications are made, at midnight on Dec. 31, 1999, the vast majority of computer systems may not be able to distinguish the year 2000 from the year 1900," Levitt wrote.

M. Sun
(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:03 - ID#334194)
Do you have any comments on US debt levels.
US debt is 5.43 trillion
US GDP 8.035 trillion
US stock market capitalisation 8.7 trillion ( my estimate ) .

Do the above figures have any effect on your outlook for the American economy or markets either negative or positive. Any thoughts about how these figures effect undervalued vs overvalued ratings for US markets
I'd like to hear your thoughts on this. Thanks in advance

To all:
Does anyone have any sites that record private and corporate debt levels for the US. thanks in advance

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:03 - ID#222186)
Arden, Aren't COMEX warehouse stocks at the lowest levels in some 12+ years at these levels? How do you read that?

Who Cares
(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:04 - ID#244209)
Dune & Gloomers

Come on, dang you, LGB. I want to hear more about how Japan has
been in recession for SEVEN years. Surely you don't believe that.
Even us non-economists know that NO recession last seven years. : )

It is by pills alone that I keep Boeing my chosen
It is through the Juice of Sapporo that the DOW acquires speed.
The public acquire brains.
The brains issue a warning.
It is for margins alone that I put my sells in motion.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:05 - ID#390214)
Money supply up again (whilst the 'manipulators' save the Dow...the US economy accelerates) Sooner or later...
US M-2 money supply rose $13.0 bln in Oct 20 week

NEW YORK, Oct 30 ( Reuters ) - U.S. M-2 money supply rose $13.9 billion in the October 20 week to $3,980.8 billion, the
Federal Reserve said.

The broader M-3 measure rose $4.9 billion to $5,240.7 billion. M-1 was up $5.7 billion to $1,056.4 billion, the Fed said.

The Fed said the four-week moving average of M-2 was $3,972.4 billion versus $3,968.1 billion in the previous week.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:06 - ID#335190)
Trucker's @ France
November 3, 1997
Strike causes creeping paralysis in France

PARIS ( Reuters ) - France suffered creeping paralysis Monday as striking truckers blocked off two-thirds of the country's oil refineries, provoking petrol rationing and panic buying sprees by consumers.

The truckers set up over 140 roadblocks around France, leading to huge traffic jams and affecting parts of the economy. A Renault vehicle factory employing 6,000 people in the northern city of Douai closed for lack of spare parts.

Police closely monitored the situation but made no move to break the strike although they pressured strikers to move trucks, stepped in when scuffles broke out and barred strike action near border posts.

The strike, by an estimated 350,000 transport industry personnel, is to protest against what truckers say is failure by most employers to carry out pledges to pay bonuses, raise salaries and improve conditions after a strike a year ago.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:08 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.47

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:10 - ID#26793)
Xau/Spot Ratio = .282

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:10 - ID#280237)
Answer specifics LGB. Teach us oh wise one. We are not worthy, we are not worthy!!!!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:11 - ID#225283)
Herd Mentality

MOO ( my obnoxiuos opinion ) Moo that Allen was correct in his post at 1310 by making the correlation between todays market events and a slaughter house...I find it sad that the floor traders are currently clueless about what is going on...yet they feel something is busy counting their percentage to ponder or wonder why...tomorrow will be another day of leading the herd to slaughter ...MOO... as the traders all scratch their heads and know that no fundamental reason exists for the market actions ...other than intervention/manipulation!!!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:18 - ID#335190)
New Era @ Retail industry less dependent, on Christmas sales.
November 3, 1997
Holiday polls give ho-hum outlook for Christmas

CHICAGO ( Reuters ) - Two holiday spending polls Monday gave a ho-hum outlook for Christmas sales, but Wall Street analysts said they expect retailers to post solid sales gains.An American Express survey released Monday found the average consumer expected to spend $879 on gifts this season, down from $900 last year.

A poll by a discount store trade group estimated retail sales would rise by just 2 percent this year."No one is expecting a big jump," said Cathy Callegari, a spokeswoman for the trade group, called the International Mass Retailers Association. "It basically looks like it's going to be the same as last year."

Wall Street, however, was a bit more bullish. Several analysts said they expected employment gains, higher wages and strong consumer confidence to translate to a rise in retail sales of 4 percent to 6 percent this Christmas.

"The consumer's pocketbook is in great shape," said Michael Exstein of CS First Boston Corp. "The retail industry is much less dependent on great sales during Christmas."

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:18 - ID#333131)
@back to basics
Value Line has been fitting the trend of the market for years and years quite nicely with an equation with only two parameters. Interest rates and profits. What ever you think about the future of stocks, and the why of it, is going to have to be translated into how one or the other of these two parameters is going to act. If you think the market is in for bad times, which I do, then why? I happen to think that profits cannot continue to rise because 1 ) Increasing labor costs. 2 ) Deflationary competition from abroad. 3 ) The decreasing rate of new toys in technology and the increasing commoditization of existing ones. 4 ) The unraveling of the true cost of options as compensation not properly reflected on balance sheets. 5 ) The slowing of consumer spreading due to incredible debt. 6 ) The decrease in fiscal stimulus by decreasing federal deficits over the last few years. 7 ) The sea change in employee loyalty over the last 10 years which will be needed more and more as times get tougher. 8 ) The continued soft demand for goods over seas as Asia in general slows down, Japan continues to rot, and Europe just lays there.
I don't know what the market is going to do day to day. It seems to be focused on itself and who knows what that will bring short term. I also don't know that the factors listed above will actually be as I've stated them. However, I think I do know that this market can't keep rising without the expectation and confirmation of growing profits.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:21 - ID#251165)
@reality check
Why do people want everything to happen tomorrow? As far I as can tell
We are in a process that is dancing to the beat of Mr. Coles drum. LGB
thinks the DOW is king, then again LGB, things do get a little bit
frantic prior to the slaughter of the beast. The more I see these
swings in the DOW the more I worry for the naive investor whos going
to be standing in the middle of the road, like a bunny, headlights on
him, big semi bearing down, nowhere to turn, phones dont work. My
advice if you dont know what your doing is get out now. But I'll miss
the super bull run-up, I hear you say. Look on getting out of stocks
as insurance. When things settle down, you can always jump back in and
this process could even make you money. The big boys are playing
musical chairs and when the music stops the safest place to be will be the sidelines. Then again there is gold, best play safe, and build up
that war chest though.

Good luck and take care everyone.

The Major
(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:21 - ID#372425)
@Congrats Hep
I hope your get to think nice thoughts in your new Olds.Hope it's good on
gas though cause "Sadist Insane"is long gold and oil and short SP500.:- )

I hope you realize that gold is where it is through extrordinary events
that were unforseen by most in this sector,thus the manipulation cries
from the ranks.Please now in your exuberance spare those who are here to
discuss gold and not how inconsistant,yet profitable?, your calls have
been on the DOW.No one is learning or benefiting from your posts,and
likely mine for that matter.

Personally I made enough recently to buy a light/horn/radio combination
for my mountain bike.I have funny feeling I will be grooving to some cool
tunes while racing into that good night.Please drive carefully and watch
out for me,ok?OH!And the horn sounds something like the bell at the NYSE.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:22 - ID#225283)

Just a thought ...has it occured to you that perhaps AG & company actually know what they are doing...and they are making statements about inflation because they are truely worried about world wide deflation, but they do not want to make the same mistake as the CB' in 1929 of waiting to long to open up the purse the numbers... M1 M2 M3 cranking yet inflation has not taken off officially....could it be that we are already in the grips of a deflationary spiral and AG is doing evrything in hias power to prevent it...politically inflation is a wee bit easier to stomach than deflation which leads to depression...I wonder....any comments?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:24 - ID#225283)
Auto sales of 13%

yet stock up on this kind of annoucement ....yeah that makes a whole bloody lot of sense!!!!! no market manipulation here?

Top Gun
(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:26 - ID#373171)
@bulls eye
Next week FOMC meets. Go short 1000 %. AG will raise. This is the final blow off.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:27 - ID#225283)
Should be auto sales OFF 13% over last year sorry

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:27 - ID#289349)
Arden: total silver stocks rose 544,265 oz to 544,265 oz? What does this mean? How does something "rise" to itself?

The important thing about the Donald/gold ratio
(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:28 - ID#323306)
is the magic number 8900
Remember, you can't get your Oldsmobile until the
Dow goes above 8900. Then it's safe. Meanwhile,
I'll be driving my Oldsmobile ( not an e-Oldsmobile,
not a virtual Oldsmobile ) waiting for you to catch up.

Oh, the Dow at least
Can shut up tolerant1
And kiwi and Nick and
GSC and Peutz and Mooney
for a while.

But we know they'll be
back. Cause they're
the Kitco kings
Crafting Kitco rings
out of solid mold
( sorry, gold )

Oh, I've gone crazy
(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:32 - ID#191306)
Completely crazy
Over the Dow
That cow, that cow
I don't know how
That old cash cow
Can give me now
An oldsmobile
Not an oldsmobow
Bow wow
Bow wow
( Like gold, a dog )

I have been pouring over charts
(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:34 - ID#374111)
and old nautical maps
Since early 1974

And I've now found a convergence
Between the route around the Cape of Good Hope
and the lockstep movements in the Dow

So now I can predict movements
Thirteen hours and 4 seconds in advance

But not Thirteen hours and 5 seconds in advance

It's as if
Someone handed me a paper
With tomorrow's close on it
And it said


Now where is everyone
(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:40 - ID#341144)
That harassed me for the last year?
Where have they gone?
Where have they gone?

Where is GSC to reassure?
Everything is alright
Everything is alright

There there - It was all a bad dream
Go to sleep. Sleep on your sobokawa pillow
( Buckwheat soon to be replaced with gold - much
cheaper filler )

If you think this celebration is excessive
And obsessive over nothing
How do you think we feel
When the site has a brain hemorrhage
Every time gold goes up
A coupla bucks?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:44 - ID#243180)
For a long time I was an observer on this server - now I am participating since I understand much more ( even as a outsider ) .

After being on this server today for more than 12 hours I am convinced that most of the DOW people ( paper fiat currency folks ) have been in this business for a relatively short time ( less than 10 years ) . I say based on posting during the day that show me clearly that most have not been through the bear in the 1970's of the DOW and Bull of gold/silver in 1980.

After the DOW plunges over a period of several years will the PAPER PEOPLE finally be seasoned to adequately control their orgasmic emotions and put the financial area into proper persepective. I myself currently play both DOW and silver/gold and the reason for my observations on gold-eagle is to move positions between the two ...

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:53 - ID#373159)
@hard knocks
I'm been to hell and back. 1 year of investing it's been along time. I want to get paid. NOW.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:53 - ID#335190)
USofA Government & Federal Reserve Corporation @ B*** S***
November 3, 1997
U.S. manufacturing activity bounces back in October

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. manufacturing industries bounced back in October from a September lull, a closely watched industry survey indicated Monday, though government reports showed consumers were wary in September and building activity slackened.

Last Friday, the government reported that gross domestic product -- the measure of all goods and services produced within U.S. borders -- grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the July-September third quarter. The key reason was surging consumer spending, which fuels about two-thirds of national economic activity.

The Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets Nov. 12 to consider interest-rate stratgey, but most analysts consider it likely the U.S. central bank will keep rates steady.

test test
(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:54 - ID#372100)


(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:55 - ID#216292)
The Light is ON
Spud Master: Your post of 16:00 hits the nail on the head. To it I can only add the DISINFORMATION_HANDLES: Oldman, Ted, EB, BBW, BIG_BAD_WOLF, Hepcat, LGB and several others are usually played by the same HUMAN_BEING. I say usually because any member of the DISINFORMATION_MACHINE could speak for any of these and the many other DISINFORMATION_HANDLES which have taken over this forum. Keep up the good work Spud. Take care.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:58 - ID#348397)
The Contrary Indicator
I have been so wrong for so long that I figure when I capitulate and start to buy Nasdaq/sell gold, you guys may want to buy SP Puts and gold. I will let you know when this occurs. For now sit tight.

All of this is true
(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:59 - ID#206222)
and more
Could someone please update us on the virtual wealth
that was created by today's 3% rise in the Dow.
How did the TSE do? How will the Hang Seng do.
Everyone. This was a stock market site when the
stock market was going down. Why shouldn't we
continue this tradition as the stock market goes

What goes down
Must come up
Spinning wheel
Have you got a tin cup?

For Peutz and his
cultists who were
shorting the Dow
All we can say is
Ow Ow Ow

(Mon Nov 03 1997 17:59 - ID#26793)
FLASH, FLASH SanyoSecuritiesFilesForBankruptcy

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:00 - ID#222167)
Since the DJIA hit bottom, early on the morning of October 28th, here are the daily trading volumes on the NYSE:

October 28th -- 1195 million shares
October 29th -- 771 million shares
October 30th -- 708 million shares
October 31st -- 629 million shares
November 3rd -- 568 million shares

In other words, we have a rallying market on declining volume -- almost always a bearish signal. Furthermore, the rally retraced about 50% of the losses since mid-October -- often a stopping point for counter-trend rallies. It looks like this is as far as the rally goes. It wouldn't surprise me to see a lower opening in the morning, with a sell-off gaining volume and momentum by the close.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:04 - ID#353159)
We don't need no stinkin handles
We are here to spread disinformation.
And are pleased as punch that there is no
registration at this site.
Even something as simple as what they
have at SI.
At SI some of our members are
not allowed to post.
Easy as that. No fees. No leaks.
No problems.
Can't be done here, apparently.

Write to us at
See what it feels like to have other people
grab your handles. The password is 'kitco'.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:04 - ID#353159)
We don't need no stinkin handles
We are here to spread disinformation.
And are pleased as punch that there is no
registration at this site.
Even something as simple as what they
have at SI.
At SI some of our members are
not allowed to post.
Easy as that. No fees. No leaks.
No problems.
Can't be done here, apparently.

Write to us at
See what it feels like to have other people
grab your handles.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:06 - ID#225283)
Mutual fund mismanagers

Most players in todays market are newguys...wait until they start carting off and piling up the body bags...many of the paper chasers here have never seen a full tour of action... much less a big bear blood bath...with all the trapings...most of the mutual fund mismanagers in the game have never been here or done this...but that is okay they are palying with other peoples will be a very expensive tuition for them but what the hell someone else will be paying!!!!!!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:07 - ID#26793)

Oh, it's over, it's over
(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:07 - ID#191306)
Peups HolliGolightly has poured water on us
It wouldn't surprise me if Perps was elected president.

But then what do I know?

I'm insane, not a newsletter publisher.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:09 - ID#335190)
Puetz @ 18:00
Thanks Steve, you are doing a great service for those of us, trying to search for information. The noise is at a high pitch of late. Keep up the good work. Take Care eh!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:13 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:15 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:19 - ID#221144)
Donald's more sensible brother
Hmmm. Dow up in heavy volume? But Peups said....

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:23 - ID#221144)
Working hard to balance selective reporting
Looks like investor confidence is back and people are hunting for bargains

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:24 - ID#225283)

Thank you so much fr the great posts confirming intervention and Tietmeyer statements.
Domo arigato

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:26 - ID#194311)
salutary ; bringing salvation
to remedy an evil or disease.
Also salutis, ( 5, 8 salus ) . A gold coin bearing a
representation of the salutation of Gabriel to the Virgin Mary; struck by
Charles VI of France, and also by Henry V and Henry VI of England for
circulation in their French dominions....a sign of things to come?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:26 - ID#334194)
@what IMFbailout?
If Japan goes down? What sort of a bail out package could the IMF put together for Japan. The worlds second largest economy. Absolutly none. What will be the results of Japan monetizing the bad debts? Who pays? Japan is the one to watch. However if you think that the powers manipulated the US stock market last week how much more so will they make sure that none of the major banks fail.

Public Braintrust
(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:27 - ID#176183)
@live and well in the Hamptons
Thanks so much, Downald, for putting up the relevant news
instead of the one-line unimportant "Earthquake kills two
ferrets in Tibet" nonsense.

Doo itashimashite

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:29 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:31 - ID#225283)

Shouldn't that be selective reporting of the news is hardly working to keep manipulated market up? Keep on palying those spin doctor games.....forever!!!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:34 - ID#225283)

Who do you trust Tietmeyer statements and cold hard facts regarding repo's or some schmuck dork that nobody has ever heard of parroting the talking heads party line.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:34 - ID#221144)
Donald already gave you the Zola link I was going to
It bespeaks true literary excellence when the opening sentence of an
exposition reads thusly:
"As an investment over the last decade, gold has sucked"

George Cole
(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:36 - ID#42953)
Puetz; Trying to call the market's day to day moves can be very dangerous to one's financial health. I agree with you absolutely that stocks are going much lower, but frankly am unsure about the timing. Looks like both diehard bulls and premature bears will get their asses kicked before this topping process is complete.

Gold stock action very bad today. Looks like these issues still haven't bottomed. Final brutal shakeout looks like a good bet.

Someone here accused the gold bears on this site of being moles for the anti-gold forces. Let's not be silly. The brutal facts of the gold bear are stark enough for all to see. As long as the anti gold forces can keep battering the price, I doubt they care what is said on this site. Disinformfation moles would be credible if the gold price was soaring and the powers that be were concerned about losing control. But the current situation is just the opposite.

Well gosh, I guess I trust what the Dow closing was reported as
(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:38 - ID#194132)
Do you have information that it closed higher?
See, there's this hang-up I have when I go to sell.
I don't give a rat's ass about Tietmeyer or Titslinger,
I want to know where my stocks closed.
You can rest assured that the 85% of the people holding
Boeing don't know Titslinger either. But they bought
the stock anyway. And I sold it this morning and
bought an Oldsmobile. Is Titslinger going to buy me
an Oldsmobile? Does knowing Titslinger get me a better

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:38 - ID#26793)
M.Sun: You are right. Only Japan can bail out Japan by using the 280 billion in US Treasury securities. Those who sought safety in bonds will have to look elsewhere.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:42 - ID#188244)
L van GoldBug, circa 1636, Holland: " The economy is as strong as it has ever been. How do I know? That pretty Pink tulip bulb is 200,000 guilders. Isn't that proof enough? In fact, it will go higher."

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:46 - ID#251147)
This question is unanswerable until after the fact but here goes any ways

Will the banks trading losses cause them to close out their short gold positions so as to book some profits?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:47 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:47 - ID#335190)
it's over! it's over! @ Over there, WWI, November 11 1918

According to Harry Elmer Barnes and Henry David in their book, *The History of Western Civilization*

"The editor of The Scholastic [November 10 1934] made an effort to translate these figures of war costs in terms that we can visualize. He indicated that the cost of the World War ( 1914 - 1918 ) would have been sufficient to furnish:
( 1 ) every family in England, France, Belgium, Germany, Russia, the United States, Canada and Australia with a $2,500 house on a $500 one-acre lot, with $1,000 worth of furniture;
( 2 ) a $5,000,000 library for every community of 200,000 inhabitants in these countries;
( 3 ) a $10,000,000 university for every such community;
( 4 ) a fund that at 5 per cent interest would yield enough to pay indefinitely $1,000 a year to an army of 125,000 teachers and 125,000 nurses, and
( 5 ) still leave enough to buy every piece of property and all wealth in France and Belgium at a fair market price."

As the young men of World War I died many thought they were dying for a great ideal. It was only after it was all over that an increasingly large number of people came to the realization that 10,000,000 had died for the private profit of monopoly--as a result of the conflict between two great groups of competing imperialists.

Some 20,000 new millionaires in the United States alone came into being from the 10,000,000 dead.

Before American entry into the war on April 06, 1917, President Wilson told Walter Hines Page, according to this pro-war American ambassador to Britain, that there was little to choose between the belligerents, that the cause of the war was that "England owned the earth and Germany wanted it" President Wilson, the Beards declared, during the early years of the war regarded "the conflict as a war of commercial powers over the spoils of empire."

And after it was all over President Wilson himself wearily asked an audience on Sept. 05, 1919, "Is there any man here or woman--let me say is there any child--who does not know that the seed of war in the modern world is industrial and commercial rivalry?

Then he said explicitly, referring to the war just over, "This was a commercial and industrial war.?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:51 - ID#199183)
puetz: We had 2328 advancing issues on the NYSE today, and a grand total of 17 new lows. Since the days when the firm of Flintstone and Rubble was the big player in the market There have been NO days like that which portended immediate trouble for the averages. I do not mean this personally, as I respect your scholarship and your honesty. Furthermore, on a long term basis, I am even more bearish than you. I believe that when this is over, we will correct ALL the advances of Western Civilization, because I believe Western Civilization is in its death throes. But, as of 11/3/97, this market is STRONG. Strong as goat's breath. There'll be no money made on puts this year, unless one is extermely lucky on his timing. Keep your powder dry. Your day will come, providing you dont destroy your credibility in the meantime. BBML.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:52 - ID#26793)
Gyrations signal bear market ahead


I TRY TO TUNE out TV news whenever the stock market misbehaves
seriously enough to make headlines, but last week there was no escaping

It wasn't just a matter of avoiding CNBC, either, because that is one
essential trick I had already mastered when working at home, the better
to shield my hard-won common sense and objectivity from the
irrepressibly buoyant prattle of their A-team guests.

As it happened, when the market went into its power dive Monday
morning, my mind had already sought and found repose in an
accustomed dead zone, "The Jerry Springer Show." I was tuned
soundlessly to an auto-da-fe for four remorseless tarts under the
inquisitorial rubric, "I Hate Your Sexy Occupation."

A million miles from the punditry of Wall Street, right? Guess again. In
the heat of argument, the network interrupted the show with a bulletin to
the effect that the stock market was raising some hell and that
more-detailed reports would follow.

Escape was impossible. Even the 2-inch crawl space beneath Judge
Judy, Montel and Jenny Jones coursed with fear and disquiet.

With nowhere to hide and a newsletter to cobble together that would
necessarily be shaped by the day's events, I surrendered and tuned in.
The punditry waxed more predictable by the hour even if the financial
markets did not.

On CBS, emcee Dan Rather colored the happening on Wall Street with
the smug seriousness and cool detachment that only someone who owns
far more bonds and real estate than stocks could muster. As trading
activity drew to a close, he took us straightaway to the New York
Stock Exchange, where the muck-a-mucks were pressed to say
something, anything to soothe the herd.

By prime time, all sentient adults in America must have known within a
point or two not only how far the Dow Industrials had fallen that day
( 554.26 points ) , but the size of the drop in the Hang Seng in Hong Kong
- down 646.14, or 5.8 percent, to 10,498.20 after other slides the week

More crucially, they could have told you that, when the market opened
for business the next day, circuit-breakers would be in place to meet the
forces of disaster.

And so they were. In the early minutes of the session, key stock
averages gapped down to touch price limits that had the force of law,
then bounced like golf balls off a diamond-hard floor of confidence that I
would urge investors to regard as deeply flawed.

By day's end a maniacally exuberant stock market had rallied 337 points
to write the kind of script that Rather and his colleagues dream about
and Americans can't seem to get enough of: a tragedy with a happy

Amidst much backslapping on Wall Street and the retrofitting of such pat
observations as might be bridled by Joe Sixpack to make sense of the
high drama on the world's trading floors, the brokers of microhistory
thought to give credit to the small investor, who had kept a cool head.

This is known as positive reinforcement. It is a feature of the bear
market we have recently entered that will undoubtedly endure until
investors determine that "buying the dips" is a losing game.

My guess is that the hour of revelation for many of them will occur once
the Dow Jones Industrial Average, sitting at 7,413.35 - nearly 900
points off its record high - as I write these words, drops below 4,000.

That drop would replicate a key feature of the still-potent bear market in
Japan, where the Nikkei Average ratcheted down from 38,950 to
29,781 before investors stopped buying the dips. They evidently
decided it was a bear market after all, then proceeded to dump stocks
again, all the way down to 14,194.

My hunch that we are in a bear market comes in part from the adage, to
paraphrase, that what does not kill this bull market can only make it

In purely technical terms, this is all but a truism. A stock index does not
oscillate with such frightening amplitude as we have witnessed recently
unless to announce some tectonic change ahead. Which is to say, shares
are either about to go a lot higher - or a lot lower.

I have difficulty believing that the former is remotely possible. While this
bull market has muscled its way past virtually every bear in the woods
for nearly seven years, I seriously doubt it has the moxie to charge into
the Asian maelstrom.

Given the high spirits that accompanied last week's record-breaking and
likely fleeting recovery, one might ask if those who were shouting with
job are aware of the financial mushroom cloud billowing over Asia right
now. It would appear not.

The economic turmoil that has only just begun to undermine Southeast
Asia's recently vibrant economy is no mere wall of worry for investors to

Indeed, as I have argued in this column before, it is an unmistakable
harbinger of the deflationary collapse of a global financial system that can
no longer determine, even within tens of trillions of dollars, how much
money is chasing, not goods and services - for there is little evident price
pressure in those areas - but overpriced shares and shaky deals.

As stocks were plummeting last Monday, the nearly unanimous
consensus was right about one thing: stocks had been too pricey before
the crash to offer much value. Could anyone have failed to discern after
the buying panic subsided on Tuesday and the cheering quieted down
that this shard of wisdom was scarcely less true?

It's time to prepare for the worst. If bulletins on the TV screen gave you
heartburn this time, think how you'll feel in the event of a real crash,
when it will be your waiter, the elevator operator, the guy at the deli
counter and everyone else who brings you the news.

Rick Ackerman forecasts stock, index and commodity futures prices for
market professionals in his daily newsletter, Little Black Box Forecasts.
His e-mail address is

(Mon Nov 03 1997 18:57 - ID#347102)
Heavy Hitter are you guys ever going to have mercy on Decend ooops I mean Ascend?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:03 - ID#7568)

Wasn't last Monday worse than today was good? If so, then wouldn't it follow that last Monday night it would have been even more silly to prognosticate a rally? And yet the market has rallied enormously just from that point. Isn't it possible that this upswing is just the reciprocal of the last downswing and that its conclusion will be just as hard to predict as was the conclusion to the first downswing?

We have a short position on with a very short leash that will probably be yanked tomorrow but, one never knows. These markets are amazingly volatile and can turn on a dime.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:09 - ID#201238)

Silver - Comex silver stocks rose 544,263 oz to 133,469,930 oz. Sorry for the typo.

Korondy - Silver stocks are very close to the lowest they have been in 12 1/2 years on comex and so are gold stocks. My take on this is as follows:

Silver - this may be the best place to see what is happening to the actual supply side of the equation as there are no obvious other huge supplies ( what about the Hunts and the plane loads of silver in Zurich? I don't know. ) At any rate, the rapid decline in comex stocks indicates that there is demand taking it away, whether actual physical, which I think, or a speculative'corner' as some would believe, it is falling.

Gold - this is a different story. For a long time last year I posted the Comex stocks here. Many of you debated the significance with me, then the LBMA announcement came and everyone went huh??? What is going on? Well my observation is that the price moves in gold still occur mostly in the US, is this because of the US$? I don't know, but it would seem to me that the place where the biggest volume of something trades on a daily basis should set the price. Does Globex set the price for the S&P the next day? Not hardly. My reason for posting the comex gold numbers now is two fold. One, Steve Kaplan is getting busy an not up dating his site every pm like he used to, which is where I told people to look for the numbers. The second reason is that i think the comex numbers give us a window to look at the whole gold and derivatives situation. I think if we can unravel the details that there is much to be learned.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:15 - ID#57232)
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Are you out there? Any comments after our DowJones rally today -- peak at 7600 or so? I have some market and gold puts and calls -- so covered both ways, with most of my assets sidelined. Still long on some gold and silver stocks.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:19 - ID#199183)
DA: Marketrs CAN turn on a dime, and I dont know when the "conclusion" will come. But, as an old Kentucky boy who was taught at a young age never to bet on a horse to do something he has never done before, I must assume that the market will show strength in the days immediately ahead.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:19 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:22 - ID#199183)
DA: Sharp pullbacks in a bull market ( stocks ) are the opposite of sharp rallies in a bear market ( gold ) . One is to be bought---the other should be sold. You will be wrong once in each case----the LAST time you do it. On all other occasions, you will be right.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:23 - ID#256321)
Get in line. Almost ready to pass out ye numbers. It's time to pay the piper.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:24 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:26 - ID#270232)
MOTHER OF ALL IRONIES -- Mr. Alan Greenspan, JUDAS 1997

Mr. Alan Greenspan: I have known you for more than three decades. And without professional shame, I confess I worshipped your expertise, knowledge and wisdom... and above all your exemplary integrity - always irreproachable and implacable. You were in essence the hero of financial truth, reason, common sense and monetary justice. But from those lofty ideals you have become the Fallen Angel, who will eventually wrought horrendous economic and financial pain upon the heartland of America.

Mr. Greenspan your lack of action will rein physical and material misery upon the investors of our country. For how many pieces of silver did you sell us out? How can you rectify your current rhetoric with what your well documented high principles have always been? The ultimate accountability for the pending market crisis will be rightfully be heaped upon you. You had the responsibility, and you failed to act with full knowledge of the looming danger... you will have no defense other than claiming to succumb to the human weakness of protecting your own personal well-being.

Mr. Greenspan, I expected so much more from my hero. But since you have chosen to turn your back on the people, I personally will drive the first nail into your cross for your sins in failing to protect the American people from what you personally called IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE.

Furthermore Mr. Greenspan, do not delude yourself in thinking anyone will believe you had no idea of what is really going on! You damn well know, but your personal economic safety is placed ahead of the financial well-being of the American people. My Ex-hero, you are truly despicable -- and you will be found out! So do not rest easily! Were on to you!

OH.., and Mr. Greenspan, Ill be back. Count on it. The nightmare is just beginning. Everyone will eventually know who really are, and who you really represent.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:31 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:37 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:38 - ID#343321)
70's are back. Inflation?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:45 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:45 - ID#335190)
IRS agency of the Federal Reserve Corporation @ New Commissioner, accepted by USofA Senate (92 - 0 vote)
November 3, 1997
U.S. Senate confirms Rossotti as new IRS chief

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The Senate Monday confirmed Charles Rossotti as the new chief of the Internal Revenue Service amid calls for sweeping change at an agency under political fire for its conduct with taxpayers.

The Senate voted 92-0 to approve Rossotti as IRS commissioner. Rossotti, 56, will take the lead role at a time when political pressure is mounting to change the way the tax-collection agency operates and handles taxpayers.

Sen. Larry Craig, a Republican from Idaho, in an acknowledgment of the difficult job ahead for the new IRS commissioner, said: "I don't know whether to offer this commissioner congratulations or condolences."

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:50 - ID#348129)
arden: Please keep posting the the Comex numbers. Watching them very closely.......

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:51 - ID#426220)
The "flight to quality" into the U.S. induced such a tremendous
rise in the US$ that those currencies pegged to the greenback
came under pressure. The underlying assets in Asia and South
America became overvalued. They are not worth as much as
implied by the present value of the US$. It is important to
understand that the flight from the Euro into the US$ is the first
and main reason for the present currency crisis in Asia:

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:53 - ID#335190)
Merger @ Exchanges
November 3, 1997
Two New York commodity exchanges to merge

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Two New York commodity exchanges, the Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange and the New York Cotton Exchange, said Monday they have agreed in principle to merge.

The CSCE lists futures and options contracts in coffee, sugar and dairy products. The NYCE lists futures and options contracts in cotton, orange juice and financial futures.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:53 - ID#18970)
@New Issue
FAST TRACK VOTE IN HOUSE FRIDAY. Pf course the very fact that there is going to be a vote means it will pass though narrowly. Thoughts on MKT effects/ maybe xplains the big rally underway. They will fall all over themselves as to how great it will be for earnings and the economy if it passes. THOUGHTS! Personally, as a Progressive, I think Clinton has it wrong on this one.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:54 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 19:56 - ID#20135)
It is all well and good that the stock market went up strongly today, but I think our focus needs to be on the currencies of the world. I think that gold will move because of currency problems. The Dow may well go to 10,000 or more, but in a much devalued currency.

The balancing act that we see going on has to hold the exact portions for bonds, stocks, and currency. Major swings in all of these lays waste to derivative players ( which seems to many more than what we have seen so far ) . Brazil is far from out of trouble, Japan is buried and going deeper. What are the currency repercussions? The middle east is having financing problems ( can they get more for their oil? ) .
Currencies are walking a tight rope, the balancing act is very impressive, but it is doubtful they will make it safely across in the building storm. ( IMHO ) A month or two ago their was much discussion on sdr's. I think you will remember that the sdr's were inflated about two weeks before the asian currency crisis. International trade seems to be tightly tied to sdr's. Maybe if we look at markets and commodities in terms of the sdr we may see some of the mysteries that are confusing us at the moment.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:00 - ID#255190)
I have a question about your two posts on 10/30 22:25 and 22:46. In the first you stated "DOW 8100 GOLD 285 by 11/07/97" and "DOW 4000 GOLD 2700 by 05/10/99". In the second post you said "we will never see DOW 7000 again in our lifetimes". Both ID#'s are the same. Canyou clarify this discrepency? Thank you.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:04 - ID#255190)
@Heavy Hitter

When the DOW gets to new highs by Christmas ( posted 10/31 @ 09:53 ) will that be the top? It seems like your total decline looks like a bear from Christmas 97 to spring 99 or about 18 months.

You also indicate that gold will be about 2700 in May 99. Warning included that "you must act quickly to get out. Does thins indicate a collapse in gold rather than a bear?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:11 - ID#348169)
Steve - Re: your 18:00. Very good point! Now - Have you done an OBV? Maybe the discredited Granvilles old bag of tricks will still occassionally work. Just a thought, as I haven't actually done the math myself. I guess the logical starting point would be the day following the absolute high in August. Or perhaps since the Thursday or Friday preceding the mini-melt. Numbers anyone?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:19 - ID#348169)
@Six Pak!
C'mon over Bro', I'll buy you a suitcase! That's the best news I've heard in a while! My March Cotton is sure to soar now ( up nicely today ) and I'll be able to take down seven winning commodity trades in a row! I'm aiming for ten. Anybody know the record? Post Livermore that is!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:21 - ID#348169)
Six Pack - E-mail me if you dare! Gone to Brewers before closing to pick up your Canadian! BBL.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:22 - ID#263259)
Still nowhere
Oldman re 19:22 post: You're right about leveraging specs but not buy and hold. It's safer to average into a late bear on fundamental values and out of an aging bull. Speculators play a risky game of Russian roulette. For instance Vick Niederhoffer, the hedge fund manager. I heard he really bit the big wiener last week hoping for the mideast currency markets to turn. He wiped out a third of his fund in one day. Geeze, such brass balls!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:30 - ID#199183)
223: You may be right. Its just hard to know the age of a bear or bull unless you get close enough to him to inspect his dentition. I thought the turn was here 9 months ago, so I liquidated the stocks in my investment account and bought gold. I stayed long gold a day and a half before reversing to short. I'm still flat stocks. Buying the dips and selling the rallies has been mighty sweet all year. I'll just keep following the "Forrest Gump" method of trading till the charts say its over. I aint listening to nobody else.: ) Go! Chiefs!

Crystal Ball
(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:33 - ID#287367)
ignorance ain't bliss
What do BBL and BBML mean?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:33 - ID#7568)

Mr. Niederhoffer has gone for the big number. He was short about 50,000 out of the money SP puts on Monday. When the mess was cleaned up there just wasn't anything left at all. He played the insurance game one too many times and with too big a load. His number came up.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:41 - ID#251213)
Has anyone considered hedging their gold postions with Non gold co calls?

I did this am at the open and am glad I did

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:41 - ID#364147)
@ Crystal Ball
Be back later be back much later

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:45 - ID#237236)
Anyone know where I can find historical currency data of such countries as Thailand, Taiwan, Indonesia, etc... for the time frame of the last year or greater?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:46 - ID#26793)
I think too many of you folks are jumping to the conclusion that the Dow is going to a new high. The Dow/Gold Ratio tells me that is not the case. It is acting the way it should in a stock bear market. Of course that could change but I need more evidence. Market leaders Compaq and Dell are down 20% from their highs. This still feels like a bear market rally to me.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:50 - ID#242148)
I am nothing but a lurker. But there are some things that I can see. One is, that oldman is about the best day trader that is at avid or kitco. That everyone at both sites are bearish, long term, except a few here at kitco like EB, LGB, and HEAVY HITTER. But I am seeing more and more on both sites short term bullish. How can this be? Has anything changed?
1. Intrest rates are low because China and Japan buy our Bonds.
2. Budget Deficts are low because the Clinton administration have changed our debt from long term bonds to short term notes.
3. Our balance of trade is still increasing.
4. Our economic expansion is coming from consumer debt and not capital expansion. ( wealth creation ) Get a home loan for 125% of the value of your home.
I could go on with other examples but they are not important. We are crashing and soon.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:54 - ID#335190)
Mooney @ 20:21
No, I would not dare e-mail. Yes, I drink Canadian, also John Labatt "Classic".
Thanks, for the offer. Take Care.

Crystal Ball
(Mon Nov 03 1997 20:59 - ID#287367)
Thanks, Ted!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:03 - ID#31868)
Just for the sake of it. I still say $400 gold by mid December and the Dow at 5000 by mid December, for both, maybe sooner. Silver will break out and move nicely to the upside from here on out.

The price of gold will be shot to the moon when all of the CB gold games come to an end. Eventually they are going to have to pony up, or admit they have been doing something with all the missing gold.

Given the amount of gold that they themselves through contradictary statments have made, there would seem to be a major storm on the financial horizon for the yellow metal.

Since I believe that world markets are nothing more than a circus, I just thought I would put my nose on, and poke it in to the tent and throw my comments into the center of the ring for public ridicule. But then again, at least I admit to being a clown.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:04 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:12 - ID#335190)
Clinton & Dole @ Team Effort @ Corporate USofA Superpower (MAI = Fast Track) Gold ?????
November 3, 1997
Clinton ties fast track to labor, environment push

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton, in the closing stages of a high-stakes political battle to win new trade-pact negotiation powers, promised Monday to push for workers' rights and environmental protection worldwide.

Clinton faces crucial votes this week in the Senate and House on so-called fast-track authority to negotiate trade agreements, which would let him cut deals that could not be changed later by Congress. He won some important backing in the Senate after spelling out what steps he would take to promote labor and environmental protection.

Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle said he would support Clinton's request for fast-track authority after Clinton released a statement outlining plans to pursue environmental initiatives and labor issues in the World Trade Organization and international financial institutions and with U.S. trading partners in Latin America.

Clinton also promised a number of steps to boost U.S. agricultural trade, including voluntary labeling of U.S. meat sold for export. Daschle put Clinton's chance for victory in the Senate at slightly more than 50-50.

While Clinton was looking to shore up support among Democrats, he won the backing of his 1996 Republican challenger, Bob Dole.
"Global trade is a fact of life rather than a policy position," Dole wrote in Monday's Washington Post. "That is why we cannot cede leadership in developing markets to our competitors through inaction, thereby endangering America's economic future and abandoning our responsibility to lead as the sole remaining superpower."

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:17 - ID#30116)
@Trading problems?
Read this story.

Cyb Jeddak
(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:17 - ID#287193)
Oh Tolerant One, you may be right! A short squeeze on silver seems to be the wisdom. One developing for gold too. The fundamentals are saying that Germany, etc. will sell gold to meet euro criteria. This seems on track. It would drive gold lower. But these sales will probably only happen in earnest next year.

Am thinking that before then wage inflation will pick up and chnge some thinking among investors. The Oracle of Hong Kong says that monetary demand for gold is what will or will not drive gold. Also feel that the Japanese economy is fragile. Their banks are close to insolvency. In short, some dynamic forces are moving that may drive gold before the CB's sell their gold.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:18 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:19 - ID#30116)
@Feeling Bearish?
Read the last two paragraphs of this;

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:24 - ID#263259)
Not in Vick's shoes!
D.A. re 20:33 post. WOW!!! I didn't hear today's story! That's really too bad. I guess Niederhoffer must have tried to make one last bailout. But he mentioned in his autobiography that he'd put up a trust fund for his wife and kids years ago ( with stodgy buy and hold managers I'll bet ) so that they'd be well cared for if he was ever destroyed.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:25 - ID#254163)
The worst among you gropes for an ideal in his own twisted way.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:26 - ID#188244)
Downald- I'm sure I'm not the first to state this, but here goes: When evaluating any arguement, one should first determine the incentive for the source to be correct. If a reputation, or money, etc. is at stake, then the answer is obvious. If the source remains anonymous, then generally the answer is equally certain. If correct, the source reveals himself as a true genius, if incorrect he disolves into a new identity only to try again later. The agressive practitioner will take on both sides of an argument simultaneously, for obvious reasons. So anyone who puts an ounce of credibility into BT, or the many versions thereafter, is a fool. Not that they are necessarily wrong, but that they are making blind guesses. The football tipsters do the same thing- tell half the people one thing, the other half the opposite, and only charge those that are right. At least with Puetz, Cole, D.A., Donald, and others I have reason to believe that their statements are sincere and well thought out. So why bother making anonymous statements?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:28 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:32 - ID#31868)
Cyb: You can bet a few million beer steins will hit the table, because while the rest of the world is running around yapping about gold, the German people are gobbling it up.

They could just open the vaults and people would back their Mercedes up to the loading docks and they would take all they could afford home with them.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:40 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:43 - ID#347457)
One day does not make market
Downald: I can challenge your statement "If the Dow goes up each day for the rest of the week, will that lead you into our camp?" with "If Dow does not go up each day, will it change your opinion?". Folks this "irrational exuberance" over one day movement is ridiculous and very similar to Goldbugs exuberance when gold goes up a few percent. Mind you that 3% gain on Dow is equivalent to $9 gain in a gold spot. We saw some of that this year, however we have yet to see $22 one day decline in ( equivalent to 500 points on Dow. 10% "correction" would be equal to $33 decline in gold. Yes, gold does not perform well this year. It is a bear market for gold, however, I think table is turning for stocks and one day "recovery" does not change this trend. ( just like one day spike in gold does not change the bear market for gold - though many would like that to happen )
Now, where have you paperbugs been last week? Hiding in a shadow? LGB, just yesterday you made a prediction that Dow will just go sideways, and today your opinion totally changed. Nothing wrong with that, everybody has right to his/her opinion. Mine did not change. Today I put a part of my money into Asia but wont do it for Dow. To change the trend is not easy, it takes a lot of shaking, lot of false hopes will be broken on both sides. In between let everybody stick to their preferred game plan. Its my money ( or your money ) and we should not ridicule each other for our choices. But I bet that a lot of our brilliant new visitors dont have any money in any investment vehicle, and they just try to bulls**t about brilliant moves and ever lasting growth of stocks. Its always easy to talk about markets when you dont have your money in it.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:45 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

(Mon Nov 03 1997 21:57 - ID#335190)
Quebec @ Protest costs government $600,000 4,000 bureaucats love it, eh!
November 3, 1997
Protest shuts bureaucrats out of offices

QUEBEC ( CP ) - Students, unemployed and other protesters blocked the
provincial government's main office building on Monday and gave some
4,000 civil servants an unscheduled day off.

An estimated 1,000 demonstrators cut off all entrances to the 30-floor
Complexe G and to its underground parking in a peaceful action monitored
closely by provincial police and the government's security service. The building houses mainly Education Department employees. Protesters had prepared for the shutdown with a course in civil disobedience tactics.

Philippe Duhamel, a spokesman for the demonstrators, said they were fed
up with the neo-liberal policies of Premier Lucien Bouchard's government.
"The government doesn't have a mandate to cut in social programs," he
said. "Poverty is growing while corporations are making record profits."

The demonstrators carried signs demanding a decent guaranteed minimum
income, a raise in the minimum wage to above the poverty level, a shorter
work week with no loss in wages and free health and education services.

A Treasury Board official said the protest cost the government $600,000
in lost wages for the day.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:04 - ID#31868)
Miro: Well said.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:17 - ID#199183)
bear market rally???
Donald: It may well be a bear market rally. I cant see that far, and any one who says they can is lying. The power evident in the move the last 2 days says we are more than a few days from a "crash", though. Days with more than 2000 shares advancing on the NYSE usually ( though not today ) pause the following day long enough to give me a good countertrend day trade---8 out of 10 times since 4/14/96. But the market is usually higher a few days later. Speculation is really just playing the odds. The odds say we wont go far down the next few days. The best you can get is an edge. Thats why you should never do like Niederhoffer and risk more than a few % of your stash. Speculation is a gamble, whether you want to admit it or not. Back to the game. Good trading ( betting ) to all.: )

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:24 - ID#403267)
@George S Cole,oldman,Earl,Zardoz
Back in the spring of this year in one of my first posts here I said that for metals there would come a bear bottom shakeout. I shoulda quit while I was ahead, I only forgot the "s" :- )
Nevertheless, I will further sully my record with these simple observations. Healthy bull markets do not drop so easily on news with such little immediate impact such as Hong Kong, re last Monday. Market tops churn with volatility and this the Mother of all bulls should churn indeed. Hence the bull is not healthy and a top ( s ) ( I remembered the insurance this time ) is being formed.
My caveat is, if somehow this was manipulated, then like Earl said our TA will prove fruitless. We would then do well to cut it loose along with our prejudices and play it by PA, political analysis. To do that, however, we have to see things as they really are, a near impossible task for humans. Finally, if this is market manipulation/conspiracy/financial engineering, then as oldman and Zardoz forecast, it will not be long till we are all in deep doo doo.
Frankly, I am open to suggestions, but we must put our bull/bear prejudices aside and really see and not just see what we are thinking.
Of one thing I am convinced, we are at an important juncture in history, a BIG turning point, and I am striving with all resources to catch a glimpse through the fog of that undiscovered country.
Many thanks to all who contribute meaningfully here to that Quest.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:27 - ID#57232)
@Home -- Is the market rally back?
All: If you think we are going to 8300 on the Dow again this year, think about what AG will do if it does! The Fed is much more potent in bringing down rallies than it is in preventing market collapses. The only chance AG has in controlling the 'irrational exuberance' in the market is the next six months or so. Don't forget the year 2000 presidential election coming up -- can't have a bear market just before the election! So, in the second half of 1988, or Jan 1999, AG will loosen up -- but not until then.
Donald: Did I see a post that Brazil doubled interest rates? The Brazilian and Mexican markets are still doing quite well -- any idea what's happening?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:31 - ID#348169)
ALL- I used to think that many of us here lightened things up with the odd humourous anecdote, BUT - This place really becomes comical when we have big market days. Hep tries to take credit for single handedly controlling the moves in all the world's markets and now LGB has gone ( in one day ) from 90% accurate to 1000% ( oh, sorry,100% ) accurate. This is better than Martin Short, Robin Williams, Bill Cosby, Abbott and Costello, George Burns, and Jim Carrey rolled into one. ( Sorry Red - You weren't Reh-heh-heh-reaally all that funny, nice, but not all that funny ) . BTW - LGB - Couldn't you have made your 13:45 just a tiny LITTLE BIT more emphatic? "Bears who have been perpetually wrong for a decade, are STILL wrong. Totally wrong, completely wrong." REH-HEH-HEH-REAALLLYYYY!!!!!!
BTW -ALL - I checked with the mob, er-uh-I mean to say the Las Vegas Gaming Commission and the Atlantic City Port Authority today and they have definitely confirmed to me that there are still only a total of 38 numbers on the roulette tables, ( #'s 1-36 and 0 and 00 ) , and so your chances are still pretty fair that your number will come up, on average once every 38 spins, NOT once every 64 spins as posted yesterday at 14:20 by the MAN WHO IS ALWAYS 100% RIGHT -LGB. ( I hear Jesus has given up his spot to the right of the throne ) . LGB - I guess this makes you only about 99.999% correct! That's O.K. with me. That makes you as Good as GOLD! ;- )
Goodnight ALL, and especially you Glenn, wherever you might be!

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:32 - ID#225283)
Public Braintrust

You would be a fine representative of the public at large---totally clueless...

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:40 - ID#348169)
@Six Pack
Sorry my Friend! I almost forgot! Good guess about the Canadian, eh! But what's this about not e-mailing? Post yours and I'll write you then. Either way, your call. However, tomorrow, I'm done for today. It was exhausting to say the least.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:43 - ID#288100)

I have been looking into e-gold as a supplement to physical possession. Anybody have experience with e-gold? Any thoughts? Thanks.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:48 - ID#272206)
full of dead puts
Puetz,Oldman,Ray,Speed,LGB,Another, JIN,Aussies,Canadians, Israelis:

Are we living in the twilight zone? Can bear markets heal into bulls in one week? Can the most respected and feared metal with the most "name" recognition in history whither and die while we watch? The rest of my trust tells me to buy and hold the Dow and I buy silver stocks and S&P puts and you know what? Looks like they are right and I'm up the creek. Ignorance must be bliss but I can't even locate it. I love this site but I am much poorer for it.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:51 - ID#57232)
@Home - Brazil did double interest rates!
All: Look what the price Brazil had to pay for stabilizing their markets -- double foreign investor fixed income interest rates to 35.4% annual rates.
Does this sound like the response of a sound financial system? There may be investment bargains in the world, but I doubt they should be in Brazil. This is a higher interest rate for Brazil than the 31% during the Mexican peso crisis in 1994. What happens if Brazilian economic reforms don't get approved quickly?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:52 - ID#31868)
Seeker: I have personal knowledge of e-gold as a customer. I am satisfied, and I like the folks that run it. In addition, whenever there is a question in my mind of increasing physical holdings I can simply do so in a couple of keystrokes and voila', delivered promptly.

I am a satisfied customer.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:56 - ID#250180)
I hope you have all sold your Dec Oil calls.
I've decided to let the Americans stay.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:58 - ID#290271)
Seeker.....e-gold?? I've taken a hard look at that one. From one angle is looks good. From another angle it looks downright silly. My only question is the storage of the bullion -- and all the bookkeeping when the bullion is changed ( ~~poof~~ ) to electrons to use on the internet. Or wherever. At least the old Gold Certificate currency made more sense. It was ( theoretically ) a one-for-one swap of a piece of paper for a piece of gold. And vice versa.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 22:59 - ID#227238)
WSF ( NC ) : Marvelously reasoned and succinctly stated.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:02 - ID#30116)
A final thought for the evening. Does it bother anyone when the Dow surges 230+ points and everyone cheers, yet when it tank 554 points it's viewed as buying opportunity? Has anyone here been watching the volume as this 'rally' progresses? It has been declining. Does anything matter anymore?

The fact is, the Dow may go up tomorrow. I still think a retest of the lows is in order. This has been a sharp crack in the Dow along with a sharp recovery. What's more, tremendous 'energy' ( read volume ) was expended in it's rise. Yet a curious fact remains. Most talking heads are not making much of these huge swings in the major indexes. Are these swings the hallmarks of unbridled speculation? I think so. Those lucky enough to buy at the lows of this recent dip have, or will be looking to sell soon.

Remember how to cook a frog, turn the heat up slowly. :- )

Good night all.....

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:04 - ID#288100)
e gold

Scotty, tolerant1. thanks. The fees seemed stiff to me. If I read it right, 1% per year storage, 1 or 2% fee every time you transact, depending on amount. Plus, don't you also have to pay commission on coins, plus shipping costs? Comments?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:06 - ID#401237)
Asian Markets
Japan in RED ?
Hong Kong WEAK ?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:07 - ID#335190)
Soybean prices soar @ Gold & Silver & Oil
Monday, November 3, 1997
Soybeans soar on demand, oil and coffee fall

CHICAGO ( Reuters ) - Soybean prices soared Monday as robust demand for exports and strong purchasing from domestic soybean processors continued to snap up this year's crop and point to tight supplies next year.

In other markets, oil prices closed lower after a volatile day of trading centered on Middle East politics. Coffee prices fell on anticipation of big Latin American supplies about to be shipped, and gold prices closed firm.

Precious metals prices ended higher, but a firmer U.S. dollar and stronger world equity markets limited gains. A stronger U.S. dollar makes gold more expensive to overseas buyers while stronger share prices draw away funds.

"The gold and silver markets have turned choppy, with stability returning to equities and currency markets, but the odd thing is open interest in gold is still climbing," FIMAT New York trader John Tyree said. December gold at the COMEX ended up $2.30 at $314.40 an ounce. Gold hit a new 12-year low around $308 on October 24 on news of a potential expansion to Switzerland's plans to sell down its gold reserves, first announced in March this year.

Asian market activity was limited Monday with Tokyo closed for a holiday, while Australian producer selling abated as the Australian dollar stabilized.

December silver ended up 10.8 cents at $4.845 an ounce. COMEX silver stocks fell 98,568 ounces to 132,925,665 ounces in Friday's data, the lowest level in 12 years.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:08 - ID#31868)
Seeker1 and Scotty: I think the best thing for both of you to do is exactly what I did. Send an e-mail right from their site to D. Jackson. I did and became a customer.

I like the system so I am biased. Let Mr. E-Gold explain everything direct.

Fed Up
(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:10 - ID#34196)
Free Speech
Regardless of the Mad Doctor and the Pest jumping up and down all day. A look at the DJIA daily chart shows that this is a rally in a bear market.$INDU&time_period=Daily&bars=100?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=&mode=Da

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:11 - ID#401237)
Asian Markets
3 in the RED

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:13 - ID#401237)
Asian Markets
4 in the RED

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:15 - ID#310159)
@ High Riser
Get a life

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:17 - ID#353211)
What happened? Asian markets just turned around a bit. Anyone watching the news?

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:18 - ID#27997)

Hang Seng now down 2%, was up. Nikkei has reversed into minus territory now.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:20 - ID#390249)
HK was up 150 points an hour ago. It's now down 280 points. Is there any news to account for this or is the PPT out to lunch. It might be interesting to check after the lunch break.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:22 - ID#364147)
@ Hepcat(21:03)
Hep: I can't stand the suspense anymore so please reveal your true identity....----you must be some real well-known dude...

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:22 - ID#335190)
Quebec Seperation a No, No, @ China, & Tibetan Nationalists
November 3, 1997
Bouchard told by Chinese not to talk about separation: CBC report
BEIJING ( CP ) - Chinese officials told Quebec Premier Lucien Bouchard not to talk about separation, fearing such talk would help Tibetan nationalists who want independence from China, a CBC news report said

The report came on the first of a 12-day economic tour Bouchard and some 200 Quebec companies are making in China.Sources within the Chinese government asked for guarantees that Bouchard would not use the trip for political purposes, the report said. Bouchard did not comment on the report, preferring to talk about negotiations for hydroelectric projects.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:31 - ID#20135)
Galvatron, Update, Neophyte : This is the volatility of the world markets embracing the bear. They surely were rising that rapidly on fundamental improvements that had somehow occured over the past few days. Let us see how they spin out of this one, maybe they will bring it positive even for another night. But the fundementals are poor and the world markets are turning before our eyes ( those of us that removed the rose colored glasses ) IMHO.

Yeah Asia is down cause a nuclear war just broke out
(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:37 - ID#229147)
WW3 just started

Grasping @ straws
(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:41 - ID#424330)
ALERT GOLD BUGGERS!!!!!!! NIKKEI IS CRASHING DOWN ( .08% ) or make that 12 points for all you simpletons!

Senator Blutarsky
(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:41 - ID#288100)
The Good

Steve Puetz: Time to pay up. I want you to take the $200, buy some silver coins of your choice, and give them to your kids. Tell 'em its from me. You ain't half bad.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:42 - ID#20135)

Monday November 3 10:46 PM EST

HK stocks lose early shine, down at late morning

HONG KONG, Nov 4 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong stocks lost their early shine in late-morning trade on Tuesday, as a decline in the futures market
prompted prices to fall across the board.

The Hang Seng Index fell 18 points, or 0.16 percent, to 11,237 after rising to a high of 11,660.97 in early trade.

The November futures contract on the Hang Seng Index fell 270 points to 11,080.

``Some big selling orders were noted in the futures market from overseas investors,'' said one broker.

China plays also reversed their initial gains with the red chip index sliding 75 points, or 3.06 percent, to 2,402 after rising to a high of 2,654 earlier, and
the H-share index was down 53 points, or 5.28 percent, at 964.

The Hang Seng Index quickly extended its losses to trade down 154 points, or 1.37 percent, at 11,100.

``Support has now turned into strong resistance,'' said Peter Lai, associate director at OCBC Securities.

He expected a fall back to 11,000 points with near-term resistance at 11,800 to 12,000 points.

Lai said China plays may outperform blue chips in the near term. ``The macro-economic view of China is very positive with interest rates decreasing. It
seems like the relationship between China and the U.S. is very good and this will attract more investment from the U.S. which will also have a very good
impact,'' he said.

China Telecom ( Hong Kong ) Ltd ( 0941.HK ) topped the most actives list and retained some of its morning gains, up HK$0.25 at HK$14.20 after
reaching an early high of HK$15.10.

HSBC Holdings Plc ( 0005.HK ) was up HK$1.50 at HK$187.00 after hitting an early high of HK$193.50.

In the property sector, Cheung Kong ( Holdings ) Ltd ( 0001.HK ) fell HK$1.25 to HK$56.50 and Henderson Land Development Co Ltd ( 0012.HK )
lost HK$1.30 to HK$43.20.

Total market turnover was HK$14.80 billion.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:51 - ID#401237)
Asian Markets
5 in the RED
HK not as weak.

(Mon Nov 03 1997 23:54 - ID#335190)
Istanbul @ Dropped to 56 % interest rates
Headlines from DNYA
November 3, 1997 Monday
elebi: " USA will Abolish Textile Quota Next Year" Isin elebi, Minister for State, has said that they were to start a period with USA in which they could remove all obstructions through commercial relations. He also stated that the two countries trade undersecretaries would hold a meeting entitled " Common economy Committee" in Washington between December 8-9 in order to abolish textile quotas and to sign a new trade protocol.

**Mooney**note this : ) : ) : )
Russia Taxes Suitcase Trade Again
The Government of the Russian Federation is preparing a new taxation
system for suitcase trade . It was declared that despite increasing the tax for the suitcase trade, Russian government was not planning to take any measures to prevent it. In addition it was stated that the low quality of Russian textile products sold in Turkey was also causing problems.

The Istanbul Stock Exchange experienced the greatest fall in its history under the influence of international stock exchanges' fall. IMKB-100 index, which had leaned US$ 2 dropped back to US$1,55 and reduced to 3.119 points due to the start of speculators' and foreign sales. Central Bank tried to cease this sudden fall with intervention into the market. US $ which had increased to TL 183,000, decreased back to TL 182,500. While the IMKB lived through sudden falls, the purchases of US$ and treasury bonds continued. After New York Stock Exchange had had its most rapid rise over the last ten years, the impact was observed through IMKB as well as other international markets. IMKB then raised 284 points. Index floated within its highest rate as 403 points in its history. The
interest rates dropped to % 56 lately.