Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:01 - ID#390249)
asia going back up - PPT back from their lunch break
Lowrise, Asia is down, grasping @ straws - your posts are entertaining. I actually enjoy them.

Ben Edick
(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:08 - ID#25745)
Hey Hep, remember me! I was at the clinic having my prenuptial
blood tests and you started confessing to me how belittled you
felt by the Kitco crew. Hey seems like just abit of fun. Maybe
you should take things a little less seriously.
P.S. How did the liver biopsy go?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:09 - ID#93199)
Check this out:

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:16 - ID#334321)
G'night duuuude!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:19 - ID#401237)
Asian Markets
4 still in the Red probably will come back.
I don't think they have taken their break yet.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:19 - ID#20135)
TOKYO, Nov 4 ( Reuters ) - Worried by the recent turbulence in Southeast Asian currencies, Japanese firms operating in the region are scrambling for
ways to reduce exposure to currency risks, currency dealers and company officials said on Tuesday.

Currency problems are the Achilles Heal of the world markets.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:20 - ID#255262)
Primary Colors

Hepcat, Do you really feel that way about Kitco? Why the obsession?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:21 - ID#20135)
This certainly shows how healthy the rally in the Hang Seng was.

Monday November 3 11:19 PM EST

HK exchange says 23 companies buy back shares

HONG KONG, Nov 4 ( Reuters ) - The Hong Kong stock exchange said on Tuesday 23 companies repurchased their shares on Monday including
blue chip companies First Pacific Co Ltd ( 0142.HK ) , Sino Land Co Ltd ( 0083.HK ) and Television Broadcasts Ltd ( 0511.HK ) .

First Pacific bought back 250,000 shares at HK$4.90 on Monday, Sino Land repurchased 490,000 shares at between HK$5.15 and HK$5.30, and
Television Broadcasts bought back 87,000 shares at a price ranging from HK$21.55 to HK$22.30.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:23 - ID#250121)
The parable of the Beast

SE Asian meltdowns came closer to my semi-rural NZ paradise today. My Real Estate Agent told me he had never seen anything like it. He personally knew of 6 unconditional sale/purchase agreeements each one in equiv US$700,000+ farmlets like mine. whose purchasers were SE Asian have fallen over in past two weeks. One agreement falling over is is a very rare occurrence, six is unheard of. I asked him to keep me informed of forced sales.

TED, G'day, JTF said you have not seen any whales this year.

It reminds me of stories of earthquake predictors. I have read that earthworms' behaviour is different for many days before a quake, that spiders' webs are different, that eels migrate out of season. I have been in several minor quakes, the air feels different a second or two before the first quake, is all I can say. That, and I have chosen to live ( for now ) in a city built on 42 volcanoes, not all of which are dormant.

This worl' gonna get wierder, Jonestown, Sri AUM. Waco, Solar Temple, Klintonalia, Sollog, Dancing Wu li Masters, Matreiya, kristyin second-commers, doom-sayers, Y2kers, millerites, UFO jefferson Starshippers, One worlders, Illuminators, flagellantes, X-filers, body builders, crystallagraphers, and we ain't seen nothing yet.

Messiahs to the left, Messiahs to the right, Messiahs armed to the teeth, Messiahs preaching peace, Messiahs raising hell.

gird your loins, and loinettes,

'tis troublesome times we have all chosen to share

some kinda fun huh!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:26 - ID#93199)
Check this out:

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:30 - ID#364147)
@ Aurator
No whales yet but I'm still lookin.....strange times that will only get!...nite Bro...

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:33 - ID#250121)
TED Nite bro Nick@Cam is gonna be propping up the physicals tonite ( let's get PHYSICAL, PHYSICAL ) so rest easy.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:35 - ID#335190)
November 3, 1997
Profit taking slashes Singapore stock market gains

SINGAPORE, Nov 4 ( Reuters ) - Singapore shares lost all their morning gains by the lunchtime close on Tuesday as investors fearing a downward correction on Wall Street took their profits, traders said. After rising more than seven percent on Monday, the Straits Times Industrial index carried on rising from the open on Tuesday and hit a high of 1,768.48 points, a 3.79 percent gain, after an hour of trading.

But the profit takers moved in over the last hour before to lunch break and pushed the index down to 1,690.37, down 13.58 points, or 0.80 percent.

"People are feeling the run-up is too fast and over-done. There is also concern there might be a correction on Wall Street soon," said one dealer with a local institution. Dealers said it was still too early to say whether recent rallies in Asia signalled a change in market trend.

"The market would have to sustain recent gains for more than just one or two days to prove it is not just a technical rebound," said one analyst with a U.S. institution. "There is still this fear the STI index may retest 1,400 if the Dow turns. So there is no compelling reason to rush in and buy now," said one analyst with a local institution.

Car distributor Cycle & Carriage fell from its morning high of S$8.20 to trade at S$7.35, down 25 cents. Volume was around 608,000 shares.

Soft drink company Fraser & Neave too eased from its morning high of S$9.05 to trade at S$8.25, down 20 cents. The property index were also off its morning high of 452.50 but remained in positive territory at 433.49, up 9.05 points. The index was mainly underpinned by Bukit Sembawang Estates ( BSES.SI ) . Some dealers said a recent rally on the
property firm was propped by proprietory buying.

Malaysian shares traded over the counter ( OTC ) were active, albeit cautious. "The crisis there ( in Malaysia ) is not over. There are still the banking reforms to be made and the government has yet to address some of the issues," said one dealer. The UOB OTC index was up 3.38 points or 0.49 percent at 695.55.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:36 - ID#255151)

Hi aurator--Yes indeed its weird, and no doubt will
get weirder as the millennium nears. Interesting about earthquake predictions, eh? One indicator used is following the want ad sections for lost cats! I'm thinking from this point on I'll concentrate on getting the physicals.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:42 - ID#20135)
Sounds like Roto Ruta ( sp ) . A wonderful place to visit once you got use to the sulfur. New Zealand is a wonderful country, as a Californian I was very impressed by the easy attitude that the residents take about the coming eruptions. Hats off to you. You are a more optimistic fellow than I.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:54 - ID#250121)
Your cash ain't nothing but trash
Auric, you're a genius, of course, I shoulda seen it before. But it needed a word-puzzler, an anagramologist to put everything in perspective.

Earthquakes may be predictable by the number of lost cat ads. This is, after all, KITco, where we have been suffering, ( none too gladly ) kitty droppings, sometimes with greater frequency and smell than others. The more kittie droppings from the hepr@c@ we get, the closer we are to financial earthquakes.

Another valuable indicator in the "I don't believe in charts, but there must be something-that-works armoury of indexes".

This Kitty-Dropping index is similar to the length-of-skirt-index, the knowledge-of-shoeshine-boys-index, the haircut-frequency-index, and the index-that-gathers-all-the-other-indexes-and-divides-them-by-each-other-to-produce-an-utterly-meanigless-index-index, Yes , at last we have the hepcat dropping index.

he he


(Tue Nov 04 1997 00:58 - ID#255151)

aurator--I understand and agree. Now THAT worries me! ( smile icon )

Mephi Stopheles
(Tue Nov 04 1997 01:34 - ID#35081)
@ bunsen burner
Gentleman: Why has this site turned into a urinating cont-
est, late nite. Fear is moving the market. Today , fear of a large short covering. Tuesday who knows what. Relax and be happy, deal with evidence as Donald and Dana ( whereever she is } have preseneted. The spit will hit the global fan soon enough. LGB, hep , aka et al seem
to have a disfunctioal life history. I ought to know. That doesen't mean they don't want the metals to fly. Don't forget "you can't having any pudding if you dont eat your meat." So all contributors disregard the 'caca de toro', be profesional and keep publishing. Good luck. Boo,October 31st-Januray 1st ,soon, no mater what. LGB 'boyant ecomomy'my posterior. Read the people in the street.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 01:37 - ID#22882)
Battle Mountain, starting to look intersting???

A general perusal of of the latest report from BMG looks interesting, their present low of about $6+; if knocked lower should make them VERY INTERESTING. The merger with Hemlo put some interesting cash and Hemlo area gold potential on their side.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 01:41 - ID#206358)
Passed through this story from the local news site:Here's an extract of what an American securities firm said of the aid package.
Thought this would be of interest to readers:

Consider the following points:

1 ) Indonesia has 239 banks and hundreds more multi-finance companies,
compared to 26 banks and 91 fin cos in Thailand. How many living corpses is
anybody's quess. In particular, the conditions of Indonesia's largest banks
( mostly state-owned and unlisted ) is a mystery.....

2 ) It is not inconceivable that there is a concentration of bank lending to
vested interest. Dismantling of tariff and monopolistic barriers ( as the IMF
package hopes to achieve ) would hit the cash cows of the vested interest and
cause exponential rise in bank's NPL.

3 ) The potential scale of property bad debt is herculean. Even interest cover
at Ciputra ( the largest and most reputable developer ) is expected to fall below
1X by 1998.

4 ) With the economy expected to slow to 2% and prices of basic needs surge
as a result of deregulation, it is not inconceivable that street riots could occur.
In Indonesia, these riots could easily turn racial!

5 ) Indonesia's private sector, which is burdened by US$60 bn in straight
offshore loans and ten of billions more in obligations...will likely take full
advantage of the US$23 bn window to close their position before the kitty
runs out and Rupiah weakens again. Although not initially apparent, the whole
process tantamount to bail-out of private companies by the Indonesia govt
through offshore borrowings. Arguably, this distorts the very beauty of free
market forces - to weed out the weak and inefficient enterprises.


Who Cares
(Tue Nov 04 1997 03:05 - ID#244209)
HK Market Down 4.4%

An interesting turn-around from when I logged on tonight. : )

(Tue Nov 04 1997 03:19 - ID#206358)

(Tue Nov 04 1997 03:30 - ID#2082)
Donald @ 21:04 Japan
Now THAT is some scary stuff. Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock...the clock strikes thirteen....

The Hashmiester is going to need to put on his party hat and join in the fun. Or suffer grave consequences.........and it WILL have a ripple effect across the Pacific........

Thanks for the info...

away...oh yeah...I almost forgot...Buy some en and call me in the morning...what a deal it is right now...
 co-Cabal...h M!

Gunter Toody
(Tue Nov 04 1997 03:47 - ID#432151)
Car 54

Ooh, ooh! I got it. Inflation/deflation. Look at Indonesia. They got both. Deflation: Bankrupcies, Debts, Declining Real Estate. Inflation: Food, Energy, Imports.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 03:58 - ID#2082)
Spud Mackenzie......a DOG? or a Potato???

I'll respond but not until I digest your fantastical, supercalifragilisticexpialidocious posts. You are on to something here...and just to think...all along I thought you were DIFFERENT........a potato farmer.....and now I find out you are a detective........are you trying out for a part with that Delaventura goofball?? the one on T.V.??

And to 'shackle' me with my dear compadre LGBoob. I can only scratch my head...we do have similar ( albeit vaguely similar ) market philosophies BUT only one of us has read "How to win friends and influence people". I'll let you figure out who.......and I have not been 100% in my calls but I DO know the odds at the roulette wheel...even the European ones... go deeper inside
 Gecko bluestar airlines............

wait a second.............who am I?................

gold down 30

better yet SpudDog......... mail me we will chat about myself if you want..........privately....I don't want the Cabal to find out we talked...get it?? got it?? GOOD!!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 04:35 - ID#318123)
Hang Seng down, nothing much were already over priced and they'll want our raw goods at cheaper prices. Always wanted to buy that 500,000 dollar home at half the price, I can dig it!! They were over priced as it was and who would appreciate it more than we Goldbug extraordinares, keep the faith its only a short stint until the paper shredding really takes effect..Can anyone please tell me who lost paper assets last week and HOW MUCH INK!!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 05:02 - ID#26793)
New Core Group, South Korea's biggest discount retailer, said it will apply to the Seoul district
court to reschedule $1.25 billion of debt for nine of its businesses. The move comes as financial
institutions refuse to extend additional loans because of their own weakened finances. New Core,
Korea's 25th-largest industrial group with annual sales of 2.3 trillion won ( $2.4 billion ) , is the
seventh South Korean conglomerate to either go bankrupt or turn to a court for help this year.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 05:05 - ID#255151)

Here's some good reading for this morning. The point the Captain is making is that a deflationary collapse is inevitable, and has begun. He does leave open the possibility of an inflationary blow off as money is printed to try and stave this off. --Note particularly the chart of Credit Expansion vs. DJIA.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 05:08 - ID#26793)

(Tue Nov 04 1997 05:13 - ID#26793)

Crystal Ball
(Tue Nov 04 1997 05:45 - ID#287367)
Away goes trouble down the drain
A Goose: It's "Roto Rooter"

Crystal Ball
(Tue Nov 04 1997 05:50 - ID#287367)
Aurator: Do you remember this song?
Messiahs to the right of me
Hepcraps to the left
Here I am right in the sh!tter with you!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 06:18 - ID#286410)
Good Mornng
Globex= S&P500 -620

(Tue Nov 04 1997 06:20 - ID#194225)
Gold 313.85

(Tue Nov 04 1997 06:29 - ID#286410)
Mix Signals
Stock Market= Germany -.86%, U.K. -.31%, South Africa -1.45%.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 06:31 - ID#334159)
See fox news-did small investors save the market?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 06:35 - ID#173274)
@the nonsense
Bart -- I nominate a new name for this site as the LGB proclamation site. Sorry, but I just can't take the 'noise' here anymore. This isn't discussion here anymore. It's sniping, where at least half the bandwidth is centered around it, and My blood pressure really doesn't require it. Perhaps once everyone else is also gone, the snipers will also move on.

See ya all about somewhere.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 06:50 - ID#333131)
Economist David Jones says Asia will put the hurt on US growth

(Tue Nov 04 1997 06:53 - ID#286410)
US$ weaker over Europe, looks like the markets are heading
in the red more.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 06:57 - ID#26793)

(Tue Nov 04 1997 07:03 - ID#26793)
@MexicoCentralBankToEaseAsInflation"Only "15%

(Tue Nov 04 1997 07:09 - ID#26793)
Stocks as collateral risky

Some lenders who accepted stocks and bonds as collateral may find
themselves in for a rude awakening if they try to call those assets in, and
not just because of a fall in prices.

Denver private investigator Joe Dickerson warns that some borrowers,
wanting to inflate their assets and provide more collateral than they have,
are borrowing securities.

For a small lease or rental fee, they obtain CUSIP numbers of actively
traded stocks and bonds and list them on financial statements and in
some cases even pledge them as collateral.

When asked to produce the actual securities, however, they can't,
Dickerson said. Instead they will offer excuses such as "they are frozen
at my bank" and "bank secrecy laws prevent such verification." Good
luck to lenders who try to collect on them.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 07:12 - ID#333131)
Does anybody have a live gold-price site that's up?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 07:12 - ID#194225)
You are one of my favorite posters. Come back soon.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 07:14 - ID#28594)

A. Goose: I have been intrigued by your its the currency comments. As of 10/10
( I havent updated my tracking this month ) Gold, in US SDR terms was at 105.19 SDR.

Some time ago, I began to wonder what the World Bank/IMF, CBs were doing, or trying to do. The beginning of my research brought me to a Canadian briefing paper for the Halifax G-7, wherein--in a throw-away comment, the writer, addressing the creation of the SDR in the early seventies, said it was to replace the less the reliable dollar... As an American, that caught my attention.

At its creation the SDR was equal to one US dollar. Then it became a basket of 16 currencies ( with the dollars weighting dropping significantly of course ) and, in 1982, it was whittled down to five currencies: dollar, DM, yen, French franc and British pound.
At this point in time, the dollars weighting is 39%. ( The WB/IMF algorithm can be found at ) . I track ( not slavishly, just as a reference point ) oil and gold spot prices in SDR terms. It has been a VERY interesting project.

Ponder Points:

1. This summer the FT had a front page, bold headline ( well, bold for the FT ) story, announcing that the WB/IMF was DOUBLING SDR allotments to the CBs. They really ARE expecting BIG trouble, I thought. ( At this time the bahts problems were not getting a lot of press. )

2. The back pages of the Economist carry the price increases in terms of the SDR, and it shows a year-over-year double-digit increase ( it was much more flagrant before the Asian contagion took hold ) . My question has been How can the SDR show double-digit increases in prices, when the 5 countries whose currency comprise the SDR are experiencing little or no inflation ( at least according to the MOPs [Ministries of Propaganda]? ) .

3. Is it just coincidence that the Saudis currency IS the SDR?

4. Is it just coincidence that the DM is the ONLY basket currency whose SDR tracks commodity prices almost perfectly?

5. Isnt it helpful that the World Bank/IMF books, by the protocols of establishment, can NOT be audited. By anyone. Ever.

6. Isnt it helpful that 99.75% of world citizens have never heard of the SDR? And probably 75% of money-runners dont track it? And it is entirely electronic? No paper blizzard, just agile electrons doing the necessary. Purrrrrfect!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 07:23 - ID#26793)
SDRer: The Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) can not be audited by anyone, ever, also.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 07:23 - ID#25588)
If you took the Dec S&P recommendation ( Nov 1, 23:50 ) you are short somewhere above 940. Keep the stop at 950 until mid-day then move it down to one point above the day's highs. First obj. 920.

George Cole
(Tue Nov 04 1997 07:30 - ID#42953)
the bears
December gold up 20 cents; dollar weak this morning

This stock bear market is not going to make a final bottom until most of the bulls throw in the towel. That will not happen until stocks have trended lower for many months and prices are far below current levels.

Gold bear not over yet but looks to be in its final climatic stage. Fifty-fifty chance that bullion could make a final dive below $300 before its all over. If that happened XAU might drop to 70 or even lower. But that would be the buying opportunity of the century. Just like the Dow at 800 back in 1982. When this huge secular gold bear turns decisively, the upside potential will be staggering.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 07:31 - ID#26793)

(Tue Nov 04 1997 07:34 - ID#286410)
SDRer= Good Post and thanks for the site for information on SDR.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 07:41 - ID#28594)
To: Donald
I hadn't actually thought about that! I suppose because BIS has all that lovely gold per share! And publishes those nifty annual reports ( for FREE!!! )
Seriously tho, as the "central bank for Central Banks" they don't control a money press do they? Tell me there isn't another player in the Global Currency lottery!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 07:52 - ID#364147)
@ Hong Kong

November 4, 1997

Hong Kong Index Drops 4.2%;
Economic Jitters Are Rekindled


After a sharp rebound Monday, Hong Kong's key Hang Seng Index
closed 4% lower, giving back much of Monday's gain as attention
refocused on the pressing economic issues facing Southeast Asia.

Hong Kong's market fell sharply in volatile trading, retreating from an early
300-point gain as futures selling pressured the blue-chip index.

The key index stumbled 474.33, or 4.2%, to close at 10780.78. Trading
volume rose slightly to 25.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, compared with
HK$23.7 billion in the previous session.

Kenny Tang, research head of C.A. Pacific
Group Ltd., attributed the plunge to selling in
November futures contracts on the Hang
Seng. The contracts fell 720 points to 10630
Tuesday. Some 30,470 contracts changed

The gains posted in the past two sessions were merely a technical rebound
following last week's sharp losses, according to Mr. Tang. "Market
sentiment improved slightly, but isn't really optimistic," he said.

Meanwhile, stocks in Tokyo closed mixed as demand for blue-chip issues
offset worries about the financial collapse of Sanyo Securities. The Nikkei
average of 225 selected issues rose 41.16 to settle at 16500.10.

Japanese stocks opened moderately higher, buoyed by gains in Hong
Kong and Monday's rally on Wall Street. Bargain-hunting from public and
pension funds also boosted share prices, traders said.

But Sanyo Securities' failure led to weakness in shares of other
medium-sized Japanese brokers and construction companies amid jitters
about their credit risk.

Share prices across Southeast Asia posted gains. The key index in South
Korea jumped 6%, Philippines climbed 3.1%, Australia added 2%,
Malaysia rose 1.3%, Taiwan advanced 1.8% and Thailand soared 6.9%.

The drop in Hong Kong prompted a pullback across the region, slowing
gains in markets.

Global fund flows continue to move against Asia. Most buyers in regional
markets Monday and Tuesday were individual investors and
Asian-dedicated funds that have to stay invested in the region, fund
managers said. Such funds had earlier raised their cash holdings and are
buying back shares after prices fell to attractive levels after the sell-offs in
the last two weeks.

But global funds remain mostly on the sidelines. With Asia ex-Japan
constituting just 2% to 3% of their portfolios, there isn't a pressing need to
commit themselves to the volatile region, market participants said.

"Overall, you've got to accept that Asia still doesn't look very attractive at
this point," says Sanjoy Chowdhury, managing director of Fraser-AMMB
Research. Indonesia's success in securing over $33 billion in international
aid stopped the slide in the market's confidence, fund managers said.

But the problems in the region aren't confined to Indonesia alone, market
watchers note. Political uncertainties persist in Thailand, so do prospects
of more bankruptcies in South Korea. Malaysia continues to face a
property glut while in Hong Kong, concerns over the Hong Kong dollar's
peg to the U.S. currency still linger. The insolvency of Japan's Sanyo
Securities also serves as a reminder that it could take a very long time for
structural problems to be resolved in Japan.

Return to top of page
Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 07:59 - ID#7568)

You got our phones tapped, or what? Glad to see I have such good company on the SPoos. Looks like our Asian friends have given us a bit of life.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 08:00 - ID#364147)
@ LAST cut+ pasty of the day

November 4, 1997

Dollar Outlook: Best Has
Come and Gone, Some Say


LONDON -- The global stock-market turmoil and Asian-currency crisis
are knocking out one prop after another from under the dollar in trading
against major European currencies.

Big investors are unwinding "long-dollar" positions, or bets the U.S.
currency will rise. Traders are taking profits and talking about sitting out
the rest of the year. Some analysts are worrying that the Asian crisis could
spread to Latin America. Some fear that Japanese investors will repatriate
cash to shore up damaged balance sheets at home.

"The highs for the dollar are behind us, and the downtrend is already under
way," says Avinash Persaud, head of currency research for J.P. Morgan
& Co. in London. He predicts that by the end of 1998, the dollar will be
trading at about 1.55 marks, or about 11% below current levels.

When the dollar falls against European currencies, it makes U.S. goods
more competitive and helps cushion U.S. investors' losses in Europe's
stock markets. But analysts warn that it also exposes America's Achilles'
heel: the country's dependence on foreign cash to finance its huge
balance-of-payments deficit.

Insufficient Savings

"Because Americans don't save enough, the U.S. -- as the world's biggest
debtor -- needs the combination of a cheap dollar and relatively high
interest rates to suck in overseas capital," says Kit Juckes, an international
economist at NatWest Markets in London. He predicts the dollar will fall
"erratically and slowly" to below 1.70 marks before year end and below
1.60 marks next year.

In late New York trading Monday, the dollar rose to 1.7365 marks from
1.7250 marks and to 121.45 yen, from 120.40 yen late Friday. The
pound rose to $1.6757 from $1.6743 before the weekend. ( Japanese
markets were closed Monday for a national holiday. )

During the past few days, the dollar has stabilized on the improved
performances of world stock markets. Monday, it was also buoyed by
worries about U.S.-Iraqi tension centering on Iraq's barring U.S. weapons
inspectors. Still, the U.S. currency remains more than 8% below its August
eight-year peak against the mark and four-year high against the Swiss
franc. ( More on the possibly improved outlook for the Hong Kong dollar,
Heard on the Street. )

Many traders, investors and analysts had expected the dollar to be 10% to
15% higher than it is against many major European currencies. The bullish
scenario was based on two supports: rising U.S. interest rates, which often
increase the dollar's allure to international investors, and forecasts of a
weak euro, the common European currency planned for 1999. Weak euro
prospects make European currencies less attractive.

Perception of Weak Euro Fades

But amid the stock-market turmoil, few economists now expect the
Federal Reserve to raise rates soon. Meanwhile, "the market's perception
of the euro is changing," says Mr. Persaud. "It hasn't bought a strong-euro
scenario, but its perception of a weak euro is fading."

Despite Monday's rallies in Hong Kong and other Asian shares, part of
which was attributed to coordinated intervention by Japan, Singapore and
Indonesia to buoy the rupiah, many investors are skeptical that calm has
returned to world markets. One sign is the dollar's inability to stay above
the 1.74-mark level Monday -- despite Wall Street's strong performance
-- and the fact that the Swiss franc remains the haven of choice.

"The threat of continued instability in global financial markets is bearish for
the dollar," says Paul Meggyesi, a senior currency strategist at Deutsche
Morgan Grenfell in London. "The U.S. dollar may be a safe haven from
political instability, but it is clearly not a haven from financial market

One reason is that during times of turmoil, investors become more risk
adverse. "There's no escaping the fact that the safest place for money for
any investor is his home cash or government securities market," says
NatWest's Mr. Juckes.

That translates not only into fewer investors seeking dollar assets but also
less financing for investors who do want dollar exposure. "Investors who
borrow funds to make leveraged dollar investments are finding it more
difficult to borrow," says Gary Evans, chief global emerging-market-debt
strategist at UBS Securities Inc. in New York.

Another reason to expect instability is America's dependence on foreign
capital to finance its enormous current-account deficit, which Mr.
Meggyesi predicts will expand to $160 billion this year from $148 billion in
1996. When markets are volatile and investors run scared, he says, the
most vulnerable currencies "are those of countries that have an ongoing
financing requirement."

Debt of $1.2 Trillion Cited

And Uncle Sam's is huge: America's estimated net external debt -- what
Americans owe foreigners -- of $1.2 trillion is roughly 15% of its total
economic output. By contrast, the rest of the world owes Switzerland an
amount equal to 130% of its gross national product, Japan about 23% and
Germany 9%. Analysts say this explains why the dollar has weakened, the
German and Swiss currencies have risen and the yen has performed better
than expected.

"The U.S. is clearly reliant on a continued presence of foreign investors
and, more important, a continued inflow of foreign capital," says Mr.

If speculators force Latin American countries such as Brazil and Argentina
to shrink their own current-account deficits, America's will widen further,
making the U.S. even more dependent on foreign cash, warns Mr. Evans
of UBS.

"The market perceives that Latin America is more important to U.S.
economic health than Asia," says J.P. Morgan's Mr. Persaud. "And
perhaps more important, the market perceives that the U.S. is morally or
financially compelled to assist its Latin American neighbors as it did
Mexico in 1994 and 1995." During that support in early 1995, the dollar
fell to post-World War II lows against the mark, Swiss franc and yen.

The issue isn't whether Washington can fund its deficit; it's at what price.
"Someone will always buy the dollar, but we need a price concession
either in the form of higher interest rates or a lower currency," says
NatWest's Mr. Juckes.

Return to top of page
Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 08:03 - ID#7568)

Spot any spouts yet? Maybe they're all glued to CNBC.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 08:06 - ID#31868)
The recent piece Orpailler of France makes for interesting reading. If you are visiting Kitco for the first time take a trip to the above site. I think you will enjoy the various reading materials there.

Donald: As always, great posts.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 08:26 - ID#364147)
@ D.A.
Mornin D.A. and no whale sightings yet...@ this time of year last year it was hard to look out the window and NOT see a spout...hmmmmmm....Am heading out shortly in the kayak on another reconnaissance mission and will let ya know....S+P futures down 7.0 and Dec. gold up 1.30...go Rangers!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 08:36 - ID#26793)
Hi Ted: I say some spouting at Kitco these past few days. Lots of wailing going on too.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 08:39 - ID#26793)
@Overcapacity: The overused word of 1998

(Tue Nov 04 1997 08:42 - ID#26793)

(Tue Nov 04 1997 08:43 - ID#225283)
Jones article

What a wonderful way to start the Kitco up & chance of US economic downturn/recession/depression has tripled due to Asian meltdown. Lookout Japan!!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 08:47 - ID#393102)
Re: "Saudi currency is SDR": Saudi currency is Saudi Rial, not
Special Drawing Rights. It is just a coincidence that they have the
same abbreviation.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 08:48 - ID#26793)

(Tue Nov 04 1997 08:55 - ID#225283)

Great post regarding german auto issue...Looks like DMG speaks with fork tongue. In statements diected at small retail investors " don't worry buy stock" yet they are unwilling to get stuck holding any ( as an underwritter ) should the price continue to tank.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 08:57 - ID#269218)

Over the last several months, I have posted several articles, including 'posts' to .... which have referred to the "Achille's Heel" of the investment markets -- indicating the particular vulnerability of the U.S stock-market.

"The Achille's Heel" for stock-markets, can be found in the current world-wide currency uncertainty & volatility. ( - See my recent, and
earlier ( 9/27/97 ) postings/articles re. : "When The Tent Collapses". )

This vulnerability, is about to be - further exacerbated by the following, four ( 4 ) unfolding, new bull markets: Foreign-Currencies ( -D/Mark, Sw/Franc ) ; Grain-markets ( esp. Soybeans ) ; the Energy sector; and the Precious Metals. These new bull markets ... are but symptoms, ultimately, of an economic & investment-world, that have grown to excess .... -- a world where interest-rates, and currency-values are manipulated .... thus orchestrating world-wide stock markets into bull-markets that have reached unsustainable, and precarious levels.

Such an over-heated investment market-place, is signalling that the economic global economy, is due for major changes. When an investment market, maps out a hyperbolic curve, it ultimately reaches a point known as "infinity". This is the point, the U.S. stock market has reached, over the last several months. This 'infinity-point', simply means the market has run its course.

From such an 'excessive' point of infinity, there has to be -- a 'return' or retracement ... to more reasonable, and rational, values & levels.

But before such a re-balancing can realistically evolve, however ... that tried-n-true law of physics, will dominate the investment markets: for every action, there is an equal & opposite re-action. Thus, the current period, is the beginning chapter .... of a new, sustained
bear market, for stock markets around the world.

We are, globally, entering a period of momentuous changes....monetary, investment, economic, and political. Although many of us, may - in the current moment's news reels, be led to believe that ..... fornow ...... it is Suddam Hussein's 'excesses', that will lead to the next down-side stock-market action. There will also be renewed upside price advances in the energy group, esp. in C-Oil -- thus contributing to an investment climate of increasing stock market uncertainty & volatility. This new bull market chapter in Oil & the Energy grp., is part of the stock-market's Achilles' Heel, that I hav referred to, in various previous posts/articles.

In addition, my earlier posts have emphasized the "Achille's Heel" component of grains, esp. in the soybeans markets. Today, 11/03/97's advance in beans, is most likely the beginning of a
$2.00 to $3.00 advance for this market. Food inflation, ultimately, strikes at the weakest "link in the chain" of the U.S investment markets & economy -- a market-place that is "credit- & consumer-driven".

Thus, this weak link is also most vulnerable to rising costs for energy as well..... for the U.S.'s industires, and consumers, are critically
dependent on cheap energy.

The currency turmoil is here & now, and at last obvious. The uncertainty, and inflationary pressure in grain and oil markets, are coming next. Just as currency turmoil began in So. East
Asia, and is now spreading; so will the grain & oil markets heat up gradually at first, and then
impact markets and economies everywhere.

Between El-Nino, and Bagdad, there is sufficient threat to the investment world of the status-quo, to continue, what the recent currency
turmoil has already started.

In the last analysis, western civilzation, and the 'global economy'... will be brought to its' knees, in the proverbial sense .... unless & until - a sound basis for money and credit ... are internationally
agreed upon. Economic trade & world-wide commerce are increasingly threatened by the potential for currency manipulation and competitive devalutions of individual nation's the political desperation to 'prop-up' and 're-stimulate', debt-ridden, inflation-threatened,economies ... intensifies.

In the immediate future, we will most likely witness, powerful new bull markets in grains ( -soybeans ) , energy ( -oil ) ; and in the Sw/Franc, and D/ the U.S. dollar begins a long-term decline.

The current economic, political & monetary world, has evidently embarked on a new era - which is headed toward ending the role of the U.S. dollar, as the world's - "reserve currency" . This is a momentuous time,
in the 20th century's closing chapter.

Ultimately a new international standard -- of money & credit unit -- will be established, and internationally agreed to. The unfolding international, global-economy -- in order for it to viably survive & grow -- will have to have ... a stable foundation, including a universally accepted medium of exchange, and store of value.

History has repeatedly documented, for endless periods of civilization: how and why, civilizations, have risen & fallen, time and again. Their rise, & their demise, have always coincided with their commitment to, and then, their abandonment of .... this monetary, fact-of-life:
-- the inherent integrity and discipline -- of a universally trusted, and acceptable, monetary unit.

This will .... in the final analysis .... return the economic and political world to stability, and to the promise of prosperity, for people everywhere.

Such a world-wide monetary common-denominator, store of value, and medium of exchange -- will ultimately be defined in terms of a specific ratio to, and convertible-backing by, gold.

This will be the hope of, and foundation for, a global economy ... that has the potential of lifting the standard of living for peoples of the earth, irrespective of national boundaries, ethnic & racial identities, or seemingly conflicting religions & ideologies.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 08:58 - ID#348169)
Today's advice MUST be taken with a counteracting caution pill for those lacking LGB's enormous bankroll.
"Be bold. If you're going to make an error, make a doozey, and don't be afraid to hit the ball." -Billie Jean King
Eldorado - Do what we used to advise. Skip over most of the posts and just concentrate on the meat. We need reasoned posts and input such as yours, so don't let the nonsense get to you. BTW - e-mail me about other sites.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:10 - ID#31868)
David: Great post. One thing though, I still do not understand this new era garbage that is part of the market language. The words have changed but as you state this game has been played many time before. History shows this in great detail.

The advent of the computer and the Internet have only served this specific in the speed at which the game has been played out. If you look at the Internet there is really nothing all that new. Life, reality, information, emotions, etc. people and their interpretation of all the previous are just more readily available.

The messages are basically the same, just the speed and the messenger have changed a little bit.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:17 - ID#30116)
@What do they know, that you don't?
As of November 5, the London stock exchange will adopt a 20% limit for market drop. I guess the idea of, "Trading halts", has world wide appeal.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:18 - ID#30116)
Controlled implosion anyone?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:25 - ID#262242)
Yes Tolerent1 human emotions are still what drive these markets. Fear & greed have been with us from the garden of eden. But, thank God we still have LOVE & tolerance also.

Spud Master
(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:27 - ID#273112)
COMEX D-Day: November 12th
Eldorado - driving away the voices of reason & critical thought is the "job" of LGB, EB, HeavyH, as well as the purile & scatological voices that interject themselve. Someone, some group has the Kitco board pegged for trivialization: the paper-pushers. Too late though: COMEX gold wharehouses will be EMPTY in 9 days - November 12th. Expect "magic" gold reserves to appear, or the shorts rent into tiny non-functional bits. Arden - you are the keeper of The Count - please keep us posted! Thanks!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:28 - ID#31868)
BillInOregon: Add gold to that list and I am in totaly agreement. I like the steady hand it gives to controlling the greed factor.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:30 - ID#30116)
Overseas markets slip sliding away, WSJ has an article that more people are buying into the deflation scenario, gold up, what more could you want? Remember, THE key difference between the '20 and early 30's, and today, is/was the gold standard. This is what caused the deflationary contractions when people got to exhuberant with their credit money. Thus, gold was the safety valve. It brought everyone back to reality. Today, we have no such devices in place. So what if the stock market goes up,... and the inflation adjusted value of the market goes flat or negative? It's like Alice in Wonderland with those wonderful mirrors...

Oh, I stand corrected. We do have a 'safety valve'. It's called the FED. From the group that brought you fractional reserve banking, and, "Trust us, we'll do the right thing." No, they're not subject to polical 'concerns', now are they? :- )

(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:34 - ID#30116)
WSJ had another article on a breakdown of the quote system that happened yesterday. It seems that, for the first hour of trading, stocks with tickers TXN through Z ( ? ) could not be priced. Bid/Ask quotes were available, and that 'saved the day'. It is not clear what was the 'cause' of the problem. Hmmmmm...

(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:37 - ID#243180)
How did U arrive at the conclusion that COMEX wharehouses will be depleted in 9 days ?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:37 - ID#30116)
Sounds like to me, the 'system' isn't all that reliable. Long term investors take note, you don't have to worry about these things. :- ) )

Spud Master
(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:40 - ID#273112)
"I have become Veg-o-matic, masher of potatoes..."
WetGold: Arden's dilegent watching of COMEX figues & draw-down rates. It the draw-down/delivery rate merely holds constant ( NOT INCREASING AS IT HAS ) COMEX will be bare of gold in 9 days. Arden, your audience clammers for more info!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:41 - ID#356379)

Would appreciate some URLs of sites which carry international metals quotes on a 24 hour basis. Thanks in advance. Doug, the Ridgerunner

(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:58 - ID#28594)
This interesting Letters to the Editor : Financial Times, 10/31 ( just catching up on my reading! )

From Avinash Persaud
Head of Currency Research
J.P. Morgan ( Europe )
60 Victoria Embankment
London EC4Y OJP, UK

Sir, Larry Summers should be congratulated for his enlightened American view on Europes putative single currency ( American Eyes on EMU, October 22 ) . However, it would appear that part of this encouragement for Europes ambitious project is based on an understatement of the risks it poses to the hegemony of the US dollar.

Mr. Summers claims that the international role of currencies is slow moving. This is not so. Sterling lost its international reserve status quickly in the 1930s. The market adopts one currency as its numeraire, not on the basis of considered, cautious judgment, but on the basis of lowest transaction costs. Tradition plays little part in the market for currencies. The greater the use of a currency, the lower the transaction costs will be in using it.

This virtuous cycle explains why there is only ever one dominant currency. The problem for the dollar is that the euro will be a big currency. If all European Union countries participate, euolands economy will be 15% larger than the Us and eurolands exports will be 25% greater ( excluding intra-European trade ) . Just the 11 countries likely to join Emu in 1999 are a bigger exporter than the US.

Mr. Summers also claims that as long as the US does the right thing in terms of economic policy, the euros arrival will not affect the dollar. However, if the dollar loses its reserve status to the euro, this would trigger portfolio switch out of dollars by private investors and central banks in the region of $500bn to $1,000bn---of five times the US current account deficit.

I doubt whether any amount of good economic management would save the US economy and the dollar from the effects of such a flow.

Response RE: Saudi currency--I wasn't refering to the Initials; if check the Saudi Central Bank website ( the URL for which escapes me at the moment, you'll see that the currency is "pegged" to the SDR! If memory serves ( and it doesn't always ) it is 1 to 1. Takes their oil out of those nasty fluctuations don't cha know!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 09:58 - ID#386276)
They can't contain what is about to happen and they know what's coming.
The next time we go into a selling wave it's going to be a big one.
But I'm sure that the market manipulators will be ready.
It is going to very soon.
The mania mode is now full blown.

All markets are now moving in a very tight lock-step.
Very evident over the last week.
When stocks want to go down they all do it. They same for going up.
The adv/dec/unc are showing extreme readings never seen since '87
The number up on an up day is the highest ever seen.
The same for the down stocks on a down day.
The unc is reading the lowest.
The trend is for these oscillators to expand and contract as we move into a trend change.
Seeing the size of the first wave, the next wave will be awesome.
But will pale in comparrison to the last wave.
This will be the true Tsunami.

The rooster who has been crowing on this site for so long and so loudly, will soon be blown up in a puff of feathers and will smell like Roturua.

"Of one day is not a market made."

Hang Seng / Ftse100 / Dow -- 1 year

Hang Seng / Ftse100 / Dow -- 3 years

Swiss / Dax / Cac -- 3 years

Personal swing charts and adv/dec/unc.

Hows the view of Rangitoto, is it sending smoke signals yet.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:06 - ID#426220)
RIDGERUNNER: You will find what you seek at the following URL. The five gold coin buttons take you to major world metal centers:

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:07 - ID#426220)
RIDGERUNNER: You will find what you seek at the following URL. The five gold coin buttons take you to major world metal centers:

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:12 - ID#31868)
Gold Mining Outlook

by Steven Jon Kaplan

Monday's COMEX gold estimated volume was a light 22,000 lots. Total COMEX gold open interest on Friday rose 1,068 to 216,305 contracts, continuing a recent strong trend of persistent commercial accumulation combined with speculator short selling. COMEX gold warehouse stocks dropped 20,862 ounces to 614,706 ounces, while COMEX silver warehouse stocks rose 544,265 ounces to 133,469,930 ounces. The very low numbers for COMEX gold warehouse stocks will be mentioned by analysts only if gold should rally strongly; then they will claim that "due to the declining warehouse stocks" they "knew all along" that gold had bottomed. The Johannesburg gold index closed Monday morning at 898.7, up 2.2, with the U.S. dollar quoted at 4.7865 rand.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:13 - ID#426220)
All: Pls pardon the double post. The Server was not responding, so I kept clickin'.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:17 - ID#33164)
JTF, NICK- Hello!
Back for a bit! Please read your mails? Thanks. Have been scrolling thru-glad I slept thru most of that other stuff. Sorry if I missed good posts, but duty [11 of them] called! Are you making any sense of the charts?
A coin dealer called on me this morning. Met him about 10 years ago-showed him a few printed posts, and asked him for some contact numbers for RSA/Coins. I shall try to get some info on supply & demand from Reserve Bank KRands division, and get them to you, even if not in chart form.

{:-} Hello All, : JIN- How are things with you?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:20 - ID#426220)
The "flight to quality" into the U.S. induced such a tremendous rise in the US$ that those currencies pegged to the greenback came under pressure. The underlying assets in Asia and South America became overvalued. They are not worth as much as implied by the present value of the US$. It is important to understand that the flight from the Euro into the US$ is the first and main reason for the present currency crisis in Asia:

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:25 - ID#386276)
Up/down volume, adv-dec looks like a selling market.
This market is rallying on falling volumes and fallying on rising volumes.
The internals of this markets are very sick.

The swing chart is indicating a market upswing.
To fail at this early point in this up-cycle will establish a new down leg
A failure at this point will break its rally and confirm the downtrend.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:31 - ID#30116)
As reported by DJ news, the CPM group estimates that gold buyers will double their holdings of the metal from 1996 levels in 1997. They expect a four percent price rise in '98 and six percent rise in '99.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:36 - ID#33164)
PANDA@9:30 & DAVID@8:57
Thank you both for insightful post.

I like your "Alice in Wonderland" analogy for this market manipulation issue, Panda.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:45 - ID#386276)
Colleen got your mail and returned.

Received this in the email.
Have received half a dozen like this recently.
This is no spam.

Dear Dow Jones Timer Subscriber,
Kelly Capital would like to draw your attention to the change in market
trend which just occurred. or
Don't let yourself be surprised by the market.

"Listen to the market"

Gold moving inverse to the dow.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:45 - ID#20135)
Great posts, please keep them up. We need more information on the relationship of currencies and your posts help alot.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:45 - ID#7568)

One interesting feature of today's decline in the S&P's is that the bond market is not reacting favorablely. All the declines of the this downdraft have been mirrored by a rise in treasury bond prices across the yield curve. This has to some extent cushioned the declines because it brought the valuation levels of the stock market down faster towards fair value than otherwise would have been the case had yields not declined.

Should the stock market decline and bond prices fail to rally, this could be some very bad s&^t. Perhaps the decline in the dollar is now overpowering the flight to quality aspect of the stock market decline.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:47 - ID#386276)
Personal swing adv/dec/unc charts

The size of the recent oscillations point to massive moves ahead.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:50 - ID#347332)
Question to All;
Is there a relationship between gold & oil? When gold is up,
oil is down and vise versa.I noticed that in the last week or so.
May be its nothing.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:52 - ID#31868)
Panda: Re; whales heading south posts from daze past. I wonder if all that tonnage of gold moving around the planet in the daze to come will affect the rotational axis of the earth.

You can bet it will rock the financial planet's axis. Remember the scene from Brazil when the paper began to whirl around DeNiro in a tornado and they went to find him in the midst of what remained. Nothing.

So too will this be with the markets. History repeats itself over and over, and the crack of the whip grows more stern and harsh. Greed begets nothing. Ergo, all the paper wealth is nothing and the holder's of such even less.

Pity what was once light that rushes knowingly into the blackhole.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:55 - ID#251213)
I do not believe that the gold shares will do anything unless the Canadian $ starts rising

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:57 - ID#278153)
Mikey is the poster ANOTHER

(Tue Nov 04 1997 10:58 - ID#31868)
Mikey: For some interesting input on that go to

the digest section and seek out the RED BARON

Spud Master
(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:03 - ID#273112)
COMEX D-Day redux
Tolerant ( mostly ) 1: The Spudmeister has used the COMEX Oct, 31st figures you posted for calculations ( 20,863oz draw-down, 614,706oz remain ) . Arden tells us that only about HALF of the available ounces are really valid ( 307,353 oz ) . Therefore, assuming a constant gold draw-down of 20,863 ounces, the COMEX remaining delieverable gold stocks should look like this:

Date Total Deliverable Total Drawdown
Remaining Remaining Per Day
10/31/97 614,706 oz 307,353 oz 20,862 oz
11/1/97 593,844 oz 286,491 oz
11/2/97 572,982 oz 265,629 oz
11/3/97 552,120 oz 244,767 oz
11/4/97 531,258 oz 223,905 oz
11/5/97 510,396 oz 203,043 oz
11/6/97 489,534 oz 182,181 oz
11/7/97 468,672 oz 161,319 oz ... expect white knight to
11/8/97 ( Sat ) inject gold, or else...
11/9/97 ( Sun )
11/10/97 447,810 oz 140,457 oz
11/11/97 426,948 oz 119,595 oz
11/12/97 406,086 oz 98,733 oz
11/13/97 385,224 oz 77,871 oz
11/14/97 364,362 oz 57,009 oz ... all hell breaks loose
11/15/97 ( Sat )
11/16/97 ( Sun )
11/17/97 343,500 oz 36,147 oz
11/18/97 322,638 oz 15,285 oz
11/97/97 301,776 oz -5,577 oz ... COMEX goes negative

Arden, please keep us posted! I can't imagine that someone won't find this situation too tempting and break ranks with Fed/CBs and try to go for broke squeezing the shorts. Comment?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:07 - ID#30116)
D.A. -- the reason for your 'high' implied volatilities.

All -- The chart has got to be bothering more than a few traders. They used to worry about the VIX being over twenty. Now it looks like it's taken a postion over the thirty mark...

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:09 - ID#426220)
LAST week we witnessed the market making ALL-TIME RECORDS: greatest one-day DOW point loss in history on Monday, followed by the greatest one-day DOW point gain in history on Tuesday. It's my considered opinion that internal dynamics of the market do NOT have the required strength to cause such whipsaw action... there must be an external force exerting inordinate pressures. I may be too old-fashion, but I thought market manipulation was illegal - regardless who the culprit might be... or is it that some are above the LAW?! We received via email visual evidence there is indeed blatant and obscene stock market manaipulation. Here is the report with charts - comments and observations invited:

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:12 - ID#347332)
TO u to the power of 19;
I always have handle #347332.Sorry to disappoint you.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:13 - ID#333131)
Nick@Ausie or anyone. Do you keep track of Comex on balance volume?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:14 - ID#251213)
George Cole the problem I see with your idea that gold below 300 or the xau at 70 will be buys is this:

The bearishness of the Gold market never gets below 10 to 12% other commodities get to ranges of 5% bulls ie the Canadian dollar and pork bellies.

This implies I think that there NEVER will be a final washout that can be determined by price. There will always be another goldbug that is buying the "bargins." If you get your 70 on the xau and buy the shares on the basis of getting bargins you will soon see someone else hoping to buy even lower so they can get their bargains.

This fact that there is always a gold bug looking to buy if gold drops lower means that those that sell gold will always have a buyer

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:17 - ID#31868)
Isay go back in the posts of daze past. This ain't no chess game. Good old fashin checkers. Last jump wins. Maybe.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:18 - ID#347332)
TO tolerant1 ;
Thanx for link on gold-eagle crude oil. Lately its been the
opposite. gold up,oil down,oil up.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:20 - ID#426220)
Novus Ordo Seclorum ( Rothschild, George Soros et al ) versus the Chinese Dragon --- world monetary and political dominance the prize --- TRICK OR TREAT????????:

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:24 - ID#386276)
I don't have them

That looks like a chart of gold - looking forward five years

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:28 - ID#57232)
Colleen: Did you see my e-mail to you? I was able to display and print out two of the octet stream files using Adobe acrobat 2.1. Currently I am trying to confirm the ElNino/ENSO dates back to 1860 -- did find some NOAH data last night -- do need to post Dr. Crook when I get some free time. My problem so far is with the "0.618" reference, and the bars on the graph you sent me linking different ElNinos. I have no problem with Crook saying that something such as the El Nino is "quantized", because that is like saying there is a regular period to the ElNino cycle. My problem is that I have not been able to decipher the retionale behind all the linked bars at the top of the graph. Very complicated. On the other hand, at this point I cannot say his conclusions are wrong.
The only clue,as I stated in my email to you, is that Fischer, in his book extending Elliot wave analysis, uses similar bars on his graphs to predict turning points. I wonder if Crook got this idea from Fischer, or came up with this method entirely on his own. The "0.618", by the way comes from Fibonacci series analysis, a number sequence commonly seen in nature.
I will be able to speak more intelligently about Crook's analysis once I see how he quantizes natural events, and what extraterrestrial events he thinks are linked with the ElNino's If he is correct, other events will be syncronized ( and quantized ) . I look forward to any further information you might have.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:39 - ID#424345)
Flight To Bargains
D.A.: Re your 10:45. It may be that with the heroic interventions promised last week by the IMF and everyone else that Thailand, Hongkong, etc. now looks like a bargain waiting to be picked up. Think of it as global buy on dip. The plunge protection team better have deeeep pockets if this is true...

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:40 - ID#33164)
JTF : Crooks
JTF: Hello!

Nick is working on the 11 pages. Sorry about the bother-I now have the newest IExplorer, which seems a lot better. You will be getting 'Synchronicity of Tidal Activity & Stock Market Dynamics" by Fred. Crooks dd 20th July 1997 together with the 2x books already on their way.

In the interim, please look at your mail.

It's 6:30pm- I'm off to a mountain for an hour {:-}}

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:44 - ID#256264)
XAU currently has a nice bear flag formation on it,
that is if you believe chart patterns ( like the recent
reverse XAU head/shoulders ) . To complete the
remainder of the bear flag, the XAU should fall
precipitously from here to equal the flag pole.
That puts the XAU under 80. Down we go!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 11:54 - ID#57232)
@Work - SDRer and SDRs
SDRer: Your posts on the SDR today are interesting. Is the SDR saga a prelude to what might happen to the ECU/EMU?
It appears that you are on the trail of something. Perhaps the powers that be tried to fix the SDR as a basket currency to get the world off the dollar preference, but somehow inflated it, so it failed.
Your post about the world always having a preferred world currency makes sense - based on the cost of transactions. A stable currency would have a low cost, but an unstable one would have a high cost.
If the ECU/EMU ever becomes a serious contender, the flood of dollars back to the US could be staggering. My hope is that the "powers that be" work out a compromise or a smooth transition, unlike the traumatic episode with the Pound sterling in the 30's. I'm not optimistic regarding this. The gold hoarders of the world ( whoever they are ) I think expect trouble ahead for the dollar -- possibly years from now.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 12:19 - ID#222186)
Peter Eliades said the same thing this morning on CNBC: XAU.X to below 80, he would be a serious buyer around 78. Good call, although I hope it does NOT come to pass. GC is acting suspicious: cuurency turmoil in Asia and S. America, good ol' Saddam Hussein is rattling his sabres, and gold is all over the floor.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 12:22 - ID#2082)
Mr. SpudMaster....and what is a SpudMaster??
I started to write a long reply to you're delusions but then I deleted it because it would bore many here and I did not want to take the bait. I will repeat myself by saying this. mail me at if you would like to know the whole truth about me including my long tenure in the CIA and with 007 and crew

(Tue Nov 04 1997 12:23 - ID#318321)
Today there has been lots of talk about currency. Especially regarding the Dollar and the EMU. I don't believe that the EMU currency would become the reserve currency without the dollar being integrated into the Euro. If we take this to its logical conclusion we will see the dollar lose value against the EMU currency. This will not bode well for the U.S. economy. It will potentially push us into a depression. In fact it may well. At some point the U.S. will use its political and military hegemony to force the merger of the Euro currency and the dollar. Creating the "new world order" currency. This should have the effect of weakening the euro currency and strengthing the dollar. Gold should do well during this period. But then again gold hasn't done anything I've expected since 1993.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 12:29 - ID#2082)
Mr. SpudMaster....and what is a SpudMaster??
I started to write a long reply to you're delusions but then I deleted it because it would bore many here and I did not want to take the bait. I will repeat myself by saying this. mail me at if you would like to know the whole truth about me including my long tenure in the CIA and with 007 and crew. If you DO NOT e-mail me I will assume that you are just popping off and wasting bandwidth and I will ignore any further taunts ( i will read the slander but i will ignore ) . And I think that you should ignore my posts as well. From the looks I think that you have never even fully digested my posts anyway. ...oh yeah as for "riding logs in the river not due to any skill but luck" ( whatever that means??? ) ....

BITE ME!! How is that for scatagorical ( you're Nov3 16:00 Gem ) .

I think you watch too much t.v.............and you should watch some Sesame Street to learn to spell you really want to 'bed down' with the big boys??

and just one more thing regarding that Gem ( nov316:00 ) . You're #1. I will continue to post some strategies here at kitco. It is not stupid ( your words ) to 'broadcast' strategies to the public. It is done ALL THE TIME by MANY DIFFERENT people. These markets are HUUUUUUUUUUGE and will never be affected by what I post to Kitco. btw, don't downplay the intelligence of the 'silent kitco reader'. They are probably FAR more intelligent than you. And contrary to what you may think, the world does not 'hang' on the posts of kitcoholics...nuff said... call the Gold Plunge Team...I have much work to do...
 the Pro Paper Pusher...oh my!

morning Ted... We are finished with our heat wave out here. It was consecutive 90+ here the past 3-4 NOVEMBER!!!!!!!! How is the coooooooooold....buurrrrrr!! How did you like that Shaq slap on Ostertag??

Crystal Ball
(Tue Nov 04 1997 12:37 - ID#287367)
Magna est veritas et prvalebit.
Aureum fidus Achates, in scula sculorum. Hic jacet Dollaris. Requiescat in pace.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 12:39 - ID#354133)
Change a few key words in the following text and you've got some sound financial advice.

1. If the enemy is in range, so are you.

2. Incoming fire has the right of way.

3. Dont look conspicuous: it draws fire.

4. The easy way is always mined.

5. Try to look unimportant, the enemy may be low on ammo.

6. Professionals are predictable, its the amateurs who are dangerous.

7. The enemy invariably attacks on one of two occasions:
1. When youre ready for them.
2. When youre not ready for them.

8. Teamwork is essential: it gives the enemy someone else to shoot at.

9. If you cant remember, the claymore is pointed at YOU.

10. If your attack is going well, you have probably walked into an ambush.

11. Dont draw fire, it irritates the people around you.

12. The only thing more accurate than incoming enemy fire is incoming "friendly" fire.

13. When the pin is pulled, Mr. Grenade is NOT your friend.

14. If its stupid but it works, its NOT stupid.

15. When in doubt, empty the magazine.

16. Never share a foxhole with anyone braver than you.

17. Anything you do can get you shot. Including doing nothing.

18. Make it too tough for the enemy to get in and itll mean you cant get out.

19. Mines are equal opportunity weapons.

20. A Purple Heart just proves that you were smart enough to think of a plan, stupid enough
to try it, and lucky enough to survive it.

21. Dont ever be the first, dont ever be the last, and dont ever volunteer to do anything.

22. The quartermaster has only two sizes: too large and too small.

23. Five consecutive fuzes only lasts three seconds.

24. It is generally inadvisable to eject directly over the area you just bombed or strafed.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 12:57 - ID#335190)
Corporate USofA @ Consumers, not retailers, are the winners??????
November 4, 1997
U.S. Supreme Court overturns 1968 antitrust ruling

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The Supreme Court Tuesday unanimously overturned its 1968 ruling that the setting of maximum prices by wholesalers for retailers automatically was illegal price-fixing under the federal antitrust law.

In one of the most important business decisions of its 1997-98 term, the high court took the rare step of overruling its 29-year-old precedent and said wholesalers in some instances may set ceilings on retail prices.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:00 - ID#347447)
at ease
GUNRUNNER: Thank you very much for the gratuitous flashback. All of them quite committed to memory loong ago, but number 9 seemed very familiar indeed. "This side toward enemy" was one of the more practical product use instructions I have encountered.

Spud Master
(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:00 - ID#273112)
To EB: I am your worst nightmare
I am the tip of the gold iceberg of world citizens bearing down on the HMS Dollartanic and lesser tonnage paper ships. I am the masses of investors with open eyes, no longer blinded by the dis-information BS pouring out of Wall Street brokerages, ardent for some other suckers to buy their cellulose promises. I am the last vision in your terror filled mind as you defenestrate into the abyss of world-wide rejection of the manipulative puppet-masters who have played god with our lives & money. I am the freedom that real, tangible, US Constitutional money confers. Back to the darkness whence you came, foul sprite, and gnash your teeth in rage ... this is the end, of your elaborate plans, the end...

(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:01 - ID#364147)
@ the beach + EB
Today is our FOURTH straight day of over 90 degrees temps and I only wish the air conditioner weren't broke....and like I said before "the slap" was a cheap shot made by a member of a cheap-shot team....L.A. suks.. and go team-gold....

(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:06 - ID#57232)
Gunrunner: Any indication that S. Hussein is serious this time, or just playing games? Any feedback from your connections? I think if this is serious, we won't have to worry about the gold bear anymore.

Lurker oo7
(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:07 - ID#310198)
@ EB
Nothing is more DANGEROUS than a cornered and wounded gold bug. Pay heed my son.

The Wichita Lineman
(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:08 - ID#374200)
@Gunrunner @12:39 post "your dictums"
Gold / Guns / Glory / Well, sgt. Rock, sorry, gunrunner, you have turnned investing into mortal combat. What I would like you to try is take the 'players' in the investment game, and give them military credentials. ( i.e. who are the 'grunts' and who are the 'captians' ) ?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:12 - ID#2082)
SpudSter - I will NOT dream of you. I will NOT lose sleep over you. But that last post is the Spud I know and love. Good prose and a good and plausible story. We will see what happens. I kindly wait your e-mail... sleep soundly

oh Sage Gunner...good stuff...welcome marks?? Buy the the dips...

(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:12 - ID#194311)
more wishful thinking
World Bank president sees worst of Asian crisis over

SAN FRANCISCO, Nov 3 ( Reuters ) - World Bank President James
Wolfensohn said on Monday he believed the worst of Southeast
Asia's financial crisis was over and no other countries in the
region needed large aid packages at the moment.
"I believe the worst is over and I hope the worst is over
but I'm not a prophet. I think we've faced up to it ...,"
Wolfensohn told Reuters after giving a speech to the
Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco.
The World Bank has participated in multi-billion-dollar aid
packages for troubled Indonesia and Thailand.
Asked if any other countries in the region would need large
packages from multilateral lending agencies, Wolfensohn replied:
"Not at the moment."
Wolfensohn said the economic reform package announced in
Indonesia Monday was "a very strong step forward and I think
that everybody is taking the fundamentals very seriously now."
Shock waves from an economic crisis that erupted in Thailand
has rolled over much of Southeast Asia, driving down currency
values and share prices.
Asked if the financial problems in Southeast Asia would be
long-term, Wolfensohn said: "I think probably there will be an
arresting of growth in some of the countries in the short term,
but I'm personally very bullish on the long term."
He said he thought the problems might take "maybe a year or
two" to overcome.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:13 - ID#194311)
economic suicide...coming up next
Hong Kong dollar peg to greenback last resort for regional stability

HONG KONG, Nov 4 ( AFP ) - The Hong Kong government is determined
to maintain the local dollar's peg to the greenback as a strong
fixture of the territory's monetary policy and a last resort for
currency stability in Asia.
Despite Monday's net easing of interest rates, which saw the
three-month Hong Kong Interbank Offering Rate ( HIBOR ) return from
13.17 percent to 9.48 percent, officiials at the territory's quasi
central bank, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority ( HKMA ) , have not
ruled out further speculative attacks.
Financial Secretary Donald Tsang over the weekend announced a
review "very thoroughly, in terms of technology, in terms of
techniques" of defense mechanisms for the local dollar which is
pegged to its US counterpart around 7.80.
"We have to look at the direct consequences of those actions,
the secondary effect and the tertiary effect," Tsang said.
"I hope that some general lessons will come out of this exercise
to ensure that when there is a second round of attack, we will not
only be able to deal with speculators, we'll make sure the effect on
Hong Kong as whole will be less."
But economists, a majority of whom believe some sort of fixed
exchange rate is needed, are doubtful of the HKMA's ability to
protect the territory from paying the price of the peg -- high
interest rates and loss of asset value both on the stock and
property markets.
"To paraphrase Churchill's comment on democracy, 'Hong Kong's
link rate system is the worst system save the others'," said Ian
Macfarlane, regional strategist for Paribas Asia Equity.
"To devalue the Hong Kong dollar would be economic suicide."

(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:13 - ID#257148)
How bizarre, how bizarre..(another NZ song)
JTF, TED, Mike Sheller, All G'day
World not blown apart while I slept, good. How is that incoming meteorite TED?
Crystal Ball, Know the song, we're in good company.
See how much i've learned, I am looking at oil now too.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:16 - ID#194311)
euro roadkill for french truckers
Inflationary pressures would be "fatal" for euro central bank: Issing
FRANKFURT, Nov 4 ( AFP ) - Inflationary pressures would be fatal
to the future European central bank, the chief economist at the
Bundesbank Otmar Issing said on Tuesday.
The future bank, which is to assume sole responsibility for
monetary policy from central banks in the euro zone from January 1
1999, would begin life in an "extremely difficult" environment, he
said in a speech.
The bank would face difficulties owing to uncertainty on the
part of investors who would prefer to stand back to begin with, and
owing to high structural unemployment in Europe, he said at
For these reasons "it would aggravating, not to say fatal, that
a potential for inflation should also weigh on the European Central
Bank," he said. The text of the speech was made available here in
The Bundesbank, and other central banks in the European Union
had a clearly-defined responsibility. This was to create a
non-inflationary basis for economic and monetary union ( EMU ) and to
pass on an inheritance of stable currencies and monetary policy.
"The Bundesbank is conscious of this responsibility and will act
accordingly," he said.
This was the second statement along these lines to emanate from
the Bundesbank in two days.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:17 - ID#194311)
Swiss might just keep that Gold afterall
Swiss franc peg to Euro an emergency scenario option: SNB
ZURICH, Nov 4 ( AFP ) - Swiss National Bank President Hans Meyer
said Tuesday temporarily pegging the Swiss franc to the Euro was one
option for dealing with a steep rise of the local currency after the
European unit's introduction.
But Meyer said the measure would only be considered in an
"I would regard a temporary peg only as a measure of last resort
in the event of extreme exchange rate disturbances," Meyer told the
Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce here.
"By placing a temporary ceiling on the exchange rate of the
Swiss franc, the SNB would lose - albeit temporarily - control over
the money supply," he said. "It would thus run the risk of of a
subsequent rise in inflation."
A permanent peg could do away with the problem of an
appreciating currency but would have major drawbacks.
These included a loss of "relative autonomy" in setting monetary
policy with a resulting rise in interest rates close to European
Monetary Union levels.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:25 - ID#57232)
Ted: How about sending some of the 90 degree heat our way? We just had our first frost of the year in mid-central USA. Part of the eastern Northwest just got a major snowstorm. Are you sure you haven't moved to Florida?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:27 - ID#194311)
may the force be with you all
Market forces win in collapse of Japan's Sanyo Securities: analysts
TOKYO, Nov 4 ( AFP ) - The collapse of Japan's Sanyo Securities
Co. Ltd. is a victory for market forces, but the first listed
brokerage to go bust since World War II may not be the last,
analysts said Tuesday.
"This has got to be seen as a positive development," said Paul
Heaton, banking analyst at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell.
"One of the concerns about the securities industry has been that
healthy companies will be required to bail out their weaker
competitors," he said. "This is an effective statement that that
will not be the case."
Sanyo Securities, one of Japan's top 10 brokers, went bankrupt
Monday with liabilities of 373.6 billion yen ( 3.1 billion dollars )
at the parent level.
The securities firm went under after nine life assurance firms
refused to extend deadlines on 20 billion yen worth of loans
provided as part of a restructuring package in 1994.
It was the first bankruptcy of a Japanese securities house
listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the 11th
largest in Japan since the end of World War II.
Yoshinobu Yamada, analyst at Merrill Lynch, said the Sanyo
failure was a signal that other healthy companies in the sector
would not be prepared to extend "unreasonable support."
He warned of the possibility that smaller securities companies
would face tough times ahead as they relied heavily on equities
commissions, which would be pressured by greater competition in the
finance sector.

Spud Master
(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:31 - ID#273112)
Weimar Republic history...
I would remind all that the straw that broke the Weimar Republic's back & led to German ( Germerman for Steve Martin fans ) hyperinflation of the 1930's was the "Rhur Kampf" - an area-wide strike by German workers in the Rhur industrial district. The French Trucker's strike may be the straw that breaks the European's financial back in likewise manner. Directly through French printing presses churning out unemployment cash for ripple-effected workers, or from upsetting the intricate European materials tranfer.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:32 - ID#57232)
@the_News: --Kiwi -- again!
You've found some interesting news again. World bank president Wolfenson says that he is very bullish on SE Asia, but "that it might take a year or two for the economies to come around". That doesn't sound too optimistic, even to a long-term investor. Bet he didn't say anything specific about Japan or mainland China. Anything from the mysterious economist, Dornbusch?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:37 - ID#386276)
Kia Motors Suspends Production

Tuesday Gold Coin Prices
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Selected coin prices Tuesday - Gold Coins

UN To Proceed With Iraq Spy Flights

Russian Factory Pays Toilet Paper

Decimax suffers R30m crash damage

(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:38 - ID#2082)
oo7 Lurky and.....
You are right.

Hello Mike S. - you comin' home?? Come on!

Aurateor ( like a shower of speech ) - It IS bizzare...

i can see clearly now the rain is gone
i can see ALL the obstacles in my way
gone are the dark clouds that had me blind
it's gonna be a bright, bright sunshiny day
j. cliff the charts

Spud Master
(Tue Nov 04 1997 13:41 - ID#273112)
To: EB
Are all your pets called 'Eric'?
Bar none Tell all.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 14:00 - ID#183379)
Small town California
The local coin dealer just ran out of their last $500 of silver coins ( my fault : ) . "Selling a lot."

(Tue Nov 04 1997 14:03 - ID#258129)
Correlation betweem gold price and DJIA in sep - oct was positive, almost 75%

(Tue Nov 04 1997 14:06 - ID#364147)
@ incoming meteorite + Aurator plus a little JTF
G'day mate! re-incoming meteorite ( too damn close,SPLAT ) JTF: Pardon mois ( must have been hallucinating er somethin ) Weather is actually soooo bad,we've lost our satellite feed and thus NO CNBC....and still no whales! go team-gold!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 14:10 - ID#2082)
aka Eric Bartell
I have two cats. Ringo...a boy orange cat and Lacy...she is a pure mean bitch. Anything else??

Speaking of Orange...has anybody 'concentrated' today??...hmmmmmmmmmmm... freeeze Florida

(Tue Nov 04 1997 14:12 - ID#183379)
they have never heard of Kitco. : (

Bart: I really am gratefull for this forum and the coins.

Spud Master
(Tue Nov 04 1997 14:16 - ID#273112)
"Hello, I would like a fish license for my pet Eric"
EB : How did you know my know my name was 'Eric'?
Spud: No, no, I have an haddock named Eric. Picked him out from thousands. The others were all too GOLD.
EB : You're a looney.
Spud: Look, it's debasement of money like that what causes social unrest.
EB : All right, what do you want?
Spud: Legal money based on the US Constitution.
EB : You ARE a looney.
Spud: Look, there's nothing so unusual about that. Spain had a silver dollar. Marcel Proust had gold Francs. And Kemmel Attaturk had a treasury all filled with gold dracmas.
EB : No he didn't.
Spud: Yes he did.
EB : Didn't.
Spud: He did, he did, he did. ( produces bound volume of double-ledger sheets ) The Necessity of Gold-Backed Currencies by Alan Greenspan, with a forward by Ayn Rand. See page 1984.
EB : ( reads for a moment ) I owe you an appology.
Spud: Spoken like a spin-master. I would now like a gold-back currency.
EB : I assure you, there is no such thing as a gold-backed currency.
Spud: Then I should like that in writing, signed by Alan Greenspan.
EB : You're in luck - the Plunge Protection Team has just arrived!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 14:36 - ID#26793)
Delphi: Would you explain the corelation between the Dow and gold, how you calculate it and interpret it? Thanks.

it's a bit runny
(Tue Nov 04 1997 14:41 - ID#374276)
I like it runny
So I decided to curtail my Walpoling activities and sally forth
to negotiate the purchase of some cheesy comestibles.
Come again?
I wish to buy some cheese.
I thought you were complaining about the bazouki player
Oh, no, I delight in all manifestations of the terpsichorean muse.
Come again?
I like a good tune. Your forced to.
Oh, so he can go on playing.
You do have cheese, don't you?
Course, sir, it's a cheese shop. Finest in the district.
Explain the logic behind that statement.
It's so clean, sir.
It's certainly devoid of cheese.
An act of purist optimism merely to pose the question in the
first place...Do you SHUT THAT BLOODY BAZOUKI UP do you in fact
have any cheese at all in this shop?
Well, no, sir. I was just pulling your leg.
I see. In that case, I shall have to shoot you.
( Senseless waste of life )

"This is not a wine for drinking. This is a wine for
laying down and avoiding."

(Tue Nov 04 1997 14:51 - ID#386276)
The regional currency crisis is expected to hurt the sales of one in two Singapore companies, especially large firms and foreign firms, a survey by BT and the Centre for Business Research & Development ( CBRD ) found.

Regulators act to fight commodity manipulation
Collection of off-market trade data among steps to be taken

S&P 500 futures contract halved
Dippies love those splits

Avid chatter
The chinese goverment expects the hang seng to come down to the 7000-8000 level before a stability comes back into the market......Also watch out silver and gold market they are in the firing zones to go down......They do intend to sell a s**t load of both metals.....but The money making question is now when.....He'll get back to me on that but he did say soon.....Also said that some kind of deal was done with the americans......

It has been called the greatest bull ever. My observation is that if it is gonna end, it will do so with a big bang. And bulls and bears will get hurt as volatilities become large. By the way, I have not seen such volatilities on a global scale since 1987. And Soros may be selling stocks in this rally after telling BBC that he thinks that the financial market should now be stable because he is down $1b on his long position!

speakers at this seminar were the likes of James Dines, Doug Casey, Brian Fagan, Paul Sarnoff,etc..The hard money crowd. They basically blame the euro union for the market volatility we are seeing now. The gold sales generated revenues which they put in US bonds. This currency inflow also pushed up the dollar vis-a-via other currencies. Currencies pegged to the dollar couldn't keep up. And the fate of the countries unpegging is what occured in Asia. They believed that Hong kong would unpeg VERY soon.

However, there is investigative reports that Russia and Turkey will be at war by end of 1998. This is for control of the area where commerce passes from Black Sea to Mediterranian. Russia has sold Cypress S-300 ballistic Missles and delivery is to take place then. Turkey views this as an act of war. Like a "Bay of Pigs". The oil that will flow from this region within 5 years is equal to that of Middle East. There are already 5 wars currently going on in that region. Oil shock #3 is not to far off.

the premium on SPX future options tells me that all the "pros" are extremely bearish right now ... everyone absolutely KNOWS we must retest the lows. I think we will. But I also recognize -- as do most -- the "older" gap up above us in spoos. Since the majority of daytraders must lose in order for the market to work ( empiracally proven by the fact that 90% go bust while only 10% live on ) , I always look for the way in which the market can nail losses onto the largest number of daytraders. It seems to me that open interest down between 780 and 830 on the SPX futures more or less proves we are not going there before November 21 ( too many winners ) . The 980-1020 area is fairly sparsely poulated by comparison, but there's enough open interest tyhere to knock down the markets as well. Which is why I believe in the current trading range of 855 Cash SPX to 982 Cash SPX ... the area in which the most "open interest" optioneers will get whipsawed. Still doesn't help me with my EWave roadmaps, though, unless we are moving into an even more complex retracement than the one we already have.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 15:01 - ID#194311)
Nick..hilarious, sad but true
Russian Factory Pays Toilet Paper

How long before we wipe our butts with dollar bills?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 15:11 - ID#194311)
Off topic but worth a chuckle
In light of the recent problems of the space station MIR, the
national symbol of Russia has been changed from the Hammer & Sickle to a
proletariat leaning over his car with the hood up.

Communist Slogan: " Our automobiles are not made in our cooperative
factories. They are made by the great Russian workers on the side of the
road, in their backyard, in their house.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 15:18 - ID#27454)
Permain Basin, Texas
As i was watching the goober patch get a planting of wheat I came up with a question. In todays economy, how would we know if hyperinflation hit? During the the german collapse the effects could be measured. Marks were worth "X" ammount compared to gold. Today the benchmark is based on what? The printing presses do not have to run to create money. Just like the stock market, money is essentaly virtual. Just some 0's on a computer. Debt is wealth. Gold has no value. Jezzz. Does this sound more and more like somthing George Orewell would come up with.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 15:27 - ID#356379)
Coin price disparity

Current quotes on various one troy ounce gold coins are similar except for the Krug which is quoted as $17 less than the others. Why the difference? Is the Krug less fine?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 15:32 - ID#420258)
Scotty: Why do people have bank accounts?

Ask anyone. Odds are their reflexive answers will be:
2 ) security ( dont want a lot of cash on person or in home etc. )
3 ) desire interest

They neglect to mention:
1 ) Access to bank-administered payments system.

But its the main reason. Think about it, no bank account - how do you receive payments and spend? Youd take paycheck to check cashing service and pay huge % hit. To pay bill by mail youd buy money order. Imagine trying to buy airline ticket, or worse yet, some big ticket item.

Even reasons 2 ) and 3 ) are a bit silly.
2 ) security? So the banker can speculate with over 80% of what you "entrust" to him?
3 ) interest? When your checking account balance is ultimately one of multiple claims to an engraved piece of paper, which, owes its value to scarcity, but which ( if enough people attempt to exercise their claim ) could be costlessly overproduced to the point of worthlessness? How does one factor in that potential cost?

So why e-gold over personal physical possession?
[e-gold, it must be pointed out is NOT a bank account. Its a bailment; entirely different than a deposit]
a ) Gold coins arent fungible ( numismatic considerations make the value of ten 1/10 oz US gold Eagles different than one 1oz K-rand.
b ) They arent divisible. Try making change.
c ) Transferring them from one individual to another is a cumbersome meatspace task.
In short, though gold coins may be splendid store of value, theyre no more useful as medium of exchange than sacks of fertilizer.

The point of e-gold is interface enabling use as money.
Imagine being leveraged long gold, and finally scoring BIG - huge paper profit. Unfortunately, it happens when all hell is breaking loose on financial markets, big clearing bank collapses, takes out cascades of others on CHIPS and check from counterparty to you never clears. Or you get your bucks; just as bucks enter catastrophic trajectory en route to their intrinsic value.

There arent many alternatives to bank-administered payments system and the sort of money they traffic in. e-gold is one.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 15:41 - ID#27454)
Re: Mikey 10:15 post
Dont use the daily price of oil vs. gold. Use the long term. Look at 1973 and 1982. Then look at 1977 and 1986. Oil and gold followed each other. While the rest of the rich world may be comming into the 21st century, in the sands of Islam there a lot of people with mucho dennero that sleep in tents. They like their women covered, their coffee strong and their money gold. From my limited view on the world oil is fixin to explode. All it would take is a spark in the mid east for oil to jump seven to ten dollars. This would push gasoline to the 1.70 to 2.00 and heating oil to 1.30 to 1.50. And that is without a cold winter. I heard on the news today there was a 200 millon Bbl shortage of crude from projected stocks to actual. While this is turnaround season the refinerys should be back in service by the end of this week. If this crude stock shortage is real there could be problems if this is a long winter. And worse will be the shortage next summer. Crude reserves should be watched in Feb and March. If they are low then, prices next summer will be high. IMHO

the story of the stock bull
(Tue Nov 04 1997 15:44 - ID#323306)
that wouldn't die
Even though everyone is trying to manipulate the
market down, it just keeps hanging in there.
Today's close is very bullish, and don't say
I didn't tell you so yesterday.


Only 1 off.

traffic on Kitco light today
(Tue Nov 04 1997 15:46 - ID#323315)
only the unemployed are posting - maybe Mooney started up his "site where you're always right"
Kiwi, tolerant1, Nick, Ted....

Today's action in the XAU is again encouraging
(Tue Nov 04 1997 15:51 - ID#323144)
I'm encouraged to sell the few shares I have left
Overall a banner day for gold and gold stocks.
This kind of basing action bodes well for the gold bull,
which will be gigantic when it finally arrives - Up moves
of thousands of dollars a day, eventually you will have
to be paid in planets or solar systems when you go to cash in.
Don't miss the XAU train.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 15:54 - ID#320102)
Nick: Thanks for your contributions, they're always great. Regarding the Avid chatter, do you know how reliable this poster is? Has he/she discussed information from the Chinese source before and if so, with what degree of accuracy?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 15:55 - ID#252127)
If this release stating CPM OPINION has not yet been posted, it's very positive


(Tue Nov 04 1997 15:56 - ID#252127)
If this release stating CPM OPINION has not yet been posted, it's very positive

(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:05 - ID#354133)
knee deep in the hoopla
JTF - Lots of military posturing going on with both sides. Its as serious as Ive seen it in awhile. If Sadam is stupid enough to take pot shot at any of the patrolling aircraft, expect a massive retaliatory strike within three days - on more than just their SAM sites. U.S. Fly-daddies and fly-boys are itching for action ( which increases the possibility munitions play ) . But I think there's a lot of behind-the-scenes "diplomatic" negotiating going on between the players which will diffuse this chapter of the ongoing battle of nerves. What concerns me the most is that both Sadam and Bill are fed up with the situation - and each other. Each needs a diversion from the problems at home.

Witchita - Just trying to inject a little humorous analogy. Investing IS a little like combat ( although usually not "mortal" ) - see numbers 4, 6, 7, 10, & 14. Its like a military campaign in that one should have goal and then assign an appropriate strategy to attain that goal. The strategies are as diverse as the campaigns and the goals. Success can be gained using any number of strategies but a given strategy will not work in every scenario. Just ask some folks here at Kitco.

I wouldnt even begin to think about assigning military credentials to the Kitco folks. ( Except Bart - he is the General. ) I think that some Kitco posters are in great need of a "Code Red." How about it General Bart - authorize a few Code Reds....

EB - What the hell happened to our Platinum?!?!?! Talk to me about dem DMs & YipYens... ( BTW - whos j. cliff ? I thought Charlie Nash wrote/sung that song in 72 )

yes it's a conspiracy
(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:12 - ID#158116)
and we've all gone somewhere else to play where you won't find us.....
bet you you can't find us bigmouthed twit

yeah, ya loser
(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:17 - ID#188132)
just try and find us, we're on the "transgender hot line"
Oops. I do hope you people go start your own site
and let the serious investors have an open line
to broadcast their views. Kitco will then have
the potential to become what it was intended to be,
and registration won't be necessary.

Royal Canadian Mounties
(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:18 - ID#396127)
@yes it's a conspiracy
We are only allowed to track down rugged, real men - self-esteem challenged asylum inmates are strictly off-bounds.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:35 - ID#335190)
Corporate USofA MAI-Fast Track @ Blame the German people, bring out the Adolf Hitler issue.
November 4, 1997
German industry titans merge to form global player

FRANKFURT, Germany, ( Reuters ) - Two of Germany's oldest industrial titans -- the Thyssen AG and Fried. Krupp AG steel and engineering groups -- said Tuesday they plan to merge, ending more than a century of intense rivalry.

The companies were created by 19th century industrial barons from the Thyssen and Krupp families, built the weapons for Adolf Hitler's armies and later helped fuel western Germany's post-war recovery.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:38 - ID#57232)
@Work Dow/gold/dollar/oil ,etc correlations
Delphi: Your 14:03 -- correlation between gold and Dow -- you need to specifiy time period, and correlation method used. Ie. linear regression, correlation coefficient, etc.
All: If you want to see the inverse correlation between gold and dollar, or inverse correlation between dollar and oil for the last several years, you must use at least a 6 month time scale. Day to day correlation will not show this. I think some other astute person else pointed this out -- I apologize in advance for not remembering who.
There is an inverse very short term ( daily ) correlation between the DOW and gold stocks. Times of uncertainty in the Dow tend to cause gold stocks to rise, and a rising DOW tends to pull money out of gold stocks. An exception would be an outright market crash when all stocks are likely to go down.
Beware the times when gold stocks and the DOW go up together -- inflationary times may be around the corner.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:38 - ID#347332)
TO KahunnaGrande;
Ok, a spark in the mid east for oil to jump seven to ten dollars.
Also Saudi Arabia still has to pay for their part in the war with Iraq.
Saudi Arabia purchased $766 Billion worth of weapons since 1987. They
have no other option than to raise the price of oil. Is it true
that the prince/president/or whatever of Saudi Arabia is dying/very sick
and when he will pass away all hell will break loose with the price
of oil?

Gold Bug
(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:39 - ID#424159)
@ This site is grrrreat
This is my favorite site on the whole internet and I think George S. Cole is one of the most brilliant market forcasters I've ever followed!!George,don't pay any attention to Hepcat because he is just another STUPID jerk. Keep up the grrreat work George!!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:40 - ID#258129)
Donald: About correlation between DJIA and gold price during last two months - it is correlation, calculated as it should be according to mathematics. For a long time dow and gold had negative correlation - when dow goes down, gold is up and other way around. Last two month picture has changed dramatically: gold price follows dow, from statistics point of view 75% correlation is high enough. I post here the chart, so you can see yourself. so far absolute values of dow and gold price are very different, i have normalized them - each value is devided to maximum value for this period, that considered to have value 1.

XAU Bear
(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:44 - ID#211201)
Don't be fooled. THE XAU BEAR is still alive!
We will see 70s soon.

Just a nerd
(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:45 - ID#244198)
@ where's Eldorado

(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:47 - ID#287207)
SDRer, Hem, JTF: The Saudi currency connection to the World Bank and special drawing rights ( SDR ) is getting confused. The Saudi currency is usually referred to as the SAR not the SDR so there should be no confusion between the 2 as has been the case here today. The value of the SAR vs the SDR varies so if it is pegged the peg is loose. The current conversion rate is not 1 : 1 it is 1 : .19 and has varied considerably over the past 3 months.

As far as I can see this confusion means there is litle left of the original position proposed this AM but if there is it should be restated I think.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:47 - ID#335190)
MAI @ Fast Track = Sucking Sound (When will the people be heard??)
November 4, 1997
Clinton's "fast track" passes key Senate test vote

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton's drive for special "fast track" trade negotiation passed a key Senate test vote Tuesday as Clinton did some last-minute arm twisting to muster sorely needed votes in the House.

Senators voted 69-31 to proceed with the controversial legislation, helping clear the way for a vote on the merits of the bill,possibly later this week.

"That was really an outstanding vote," Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott said. "It shows very clearly that the Senate believes this is in the best interest of the country"

"I am very pleased that the Senate has voted with a very strong bipartisan majority to clear the key procedural hurdle to pass trade negotiating authority to expand American exports, create American jobs and strengthen American leadership in the world," Clinton told reporters in a Rose Garden appearance.

Clinton also plans to sweeten the pot a little by expanding job retraining benefits for workers who lose jobs because of imports. Clinton is expected to unveil the new package Wednesday, said one administration official.

Clinton wants the authority to expand the North American Free Trade Agreement ( NAFTA ) to include Chile and to negotiate market-opening deals in Latin America and Asia. Supporters argue that other countries are reluctant to negotiate an agreement they believe can be changed by 535 members of Congress.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:48 - ID#287207)
SDRer, Hem, JTF: The Saudi currency connection to the World Bank and special drawing rights ( SDR ) is getting confused. The Saudi currency is usually referred to as the SAR not the SDR so there should be no confusion between the 2 as has been the case here today. The value of the SAR vs the SDR varies so if it is pegged the peg is loose. The current conversion rate is not 1 : 1 it is 1 : .19 and has varied considerably over the past 3 months.

As far as I can see this confusion means there is little left of the original position proposed this AM but if there is it should be restated I think.

Neighborhood Bully
(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:54 - ID#382147)
@ Spud Master
Stop picking on me bud EB or I'll punch ya in the face. Paper is king!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:54 - ID#258129)
JTF: it is correlation coefficient, calculated for September and October 1997.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:58 - ID#335190)
Canadian Soldiers @ Were, also victims, were is their fund money!
November 4, 1997
Jewish leaders approve use of Swiss fund

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Jewish leaders meeting in New York and Jerusalem Tuesday authorized the allocation of nearly $200 million in the fund set up by Swiss banks and businesses earlier this year to aid Holocaust victims.

The first payments, to needy Holocaust survivors living in East and Central Europe, will be sent out by the end of the month, said a spokesman for the nine Jewish members of the World Jewish Restitution Organization ( WJRO ) who are on the board administering the Swiss fund.

The fund was started by the three biggest Swiss banks after an international controversy over Swiss bank handling of accounts from Holocaust victims.

Jewish groups accused the Swiss of withholding the accounts from survivors after the war. Since its inception the fund has received $192 million. The first payments, totalling about $12 million, will go to Holocaust survivors in Eastern and Central Europe, so-called
double victims because they were persecuted by both the Nazis and the Communists.

About $22 million from the fund is earmarked for non-Jewish victims of the Nazis, such as Gypsies. The rest of the funds were allocated Tuesday to Holocaust survivors around the world.

Whoa, Delphi, keep on posting
(Tue Nov 04 1997 16:59 - ID#194306)
Dow and gold following each other for past two months?
Hey, Donald, what say you now?

( Remember when I asked of what use your ratio was
if Dow and gold both went up or both went down? )

Vedddy Interesting, and I'm sure we would all like
to hear more.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:04 - ID#390214)
Gold coins sales up 186 % in US (CPM bullish outlook for gold in 1998)
Through the first nine months of 1997, demand for the U.S. Mint's American Eagle gold
coins reached 461,750 ounces, up 186 pct from 161,000 ounces in the same period in 1996.

And what's so wild is
(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:05 - ID#206294)
Today the Dow was up slightly, gold was up slightly
I think we've got a winner. That means as the Dow
crashes over the next couple weeks ( Puetzdown ) ,
that gold will also crash. How bout it, guys?
Dow must go up for gold to go up, it's like the
Dow is holding gold hostage, like a human shield
to take all the hits as Dow climbs back to 8300.
Unfortunately, all of the bullets will take a
toll finally on gold, and it will expire to 300.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:06 - ID#335190)

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Prices on the New York Stock Exchange closed higher in active trading Tuesday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 14.74 to 7689.13.
The average price per share rose 13 cents.
Advancers beat decliners 1525 to 1359.
Volume was 537,138,380, compared to 564,066,902, on Monday.
( Prices official as of 1630 EDT/2030 GMT ) .
( ( -- Wall Street Desk, 212-859-1730 ) )

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:10 - ID#390214)
S&P 500 3rd Qtr earnings disappoint(4th qtr will be worse)
71% of companies have reported, representing 75% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500. If
the remaining companies report earnings exactly in line with expectations, 3rd quarter earnings will
be $0.51 below the original 3rd quarter S&P 500 estimate of $11.40. This compares with $9.78
reported for the third quarter of 1996.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:13 - ID#201238)

Comex warehouse gold stocks fell 10,255 oz to 604,450 oz. Comex warehouse silve stocks rose 350,861 oz to 133,820,791 oz. today.

Comex gold stocks showed some shifting with registered stocks falling 20,117 oz and eligible stocks rising 9,861 oz indicating new contracts written against this amount.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:16 - ID#390214)
Intel Corporation downgraded (affected by SE Asia turmoil)
NEW YORK, Nov 3 ( Reuters ) - Hambrecht & Quist said on Monday it lowered its rating on shares of Intel Corp to hold from

Intel Feels Impact Of Asia Turmoil

Steve Jobs
(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:16 - ID#289303)
Apple is going to make headlines. Double your money safely. The stock is way oversold and should be bought with all hands. Remember what I have said before "Gold is going nowhere".

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:22 - ID#390214)
US economy accelarating (can inflation be far behind?)
NEW YORK ( MktNews ) - The weekly Redbook Research chain store sales index increased
0.7%, seasonally adjusted, in the month-to-date period ended Nov. 1 compared with September 1997,
according to market sources.
The index rose 6.8%, seasonally adjusted, in the month vs. the year ago month, the sources said.
The index rose 7.1% in the latest week, unadjusted, vs. the year-ago week, the sources said.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:24 - ID#390214)
If you want more (Flight to 'Safety') the Feds plan more bonds issue this week
"Whether people will underwrite supply at these prices remains to be seen," he said.
On Tuesday, the market faces the first leg of the quarterly refunding with an offering of $14 billion
in three-year note

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:34 - ID#285233)
Durban Deep
If adding to your gold stock portfolio look at Durban Deep ( DROOY ) . I just bought more shares as it is bottoming around $2. The company ( SA ) has only 41,581,000 shares out and is producing 747,000 oz per year. It is extremely geared to gold price. The cash costs are coming down since Randgold is the mining house running the show. I think that you will see its price go up an order of magnitude once gold gets up to $400-$450. Total proven and inferred reserves are close to 19 mil ozs.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:37 - ID#246224)
4 Involvements with Gold, No Comparisions
It seems that many of the senseless arguements which heated egos engage are often fueled by improper comparisons of performance. Apples are compared to lizards are compared to rocks are compared to quanta. Egos always try to 'prove' who is smarter, better, righter.

Here are four rationals for involvement with gold/silver. Each has its own priorities and those priorities represent the only standard to measure their performance. Comparing between them is confusing and futile since this does not acknowledge the prime reason for ones involvement and the measure of success ( did it do what you wanted for you ) .

1 ) You are a commodities trader. You try to make money based on predicting the action of the respective market, up or down, and position your commitments to reap profits from this action. Success is defined as accurately and profitably trading long/short. Whether the metal goes one way or another is of no concern. What matters is your accuracy in prediction and ability to reap profits.

2 ) You are a mid to long term invester ( contrarian ) . You believe that pm's are undervalued and are invested to take advantage of a price rise. Your horizon is 1 to 5 years. Daily fluctuations are not of interest to you. Success is defined as arriving at a profitable position at some point in your range and knowing when to get out.

3 ) You are defending your real assets. You are concerned that currency or inflation/deflation flux may reduce your real wealth. You may be concerned about social unrest and feel the need to be able to move your wealth quietly out of danger ( along with you and those you love ) . You may have 5% to 95% of your assets in physical metal based upon your sense about your situation. Success is being prepared. Knowing that you can survive if things fall apart.

4 ) You like gold and the other PM's as pretty things which also retain their value ove time. Your primary concern is decoration and possibly social standing or statement. You are successful if you are fashionable and well received by those you care to be received by. If need be you can always trade these in for the next fashionable thing. Unlike clothing, furniture or other fashionable things, jewelry and precious metals will retain their intrinsic worth even after being "used".

Often I hear people who compare investments and profits made in them ( 1's ) trying to beat the living daylights out of those who are invested for reasons 2 & 3 ( in different proportions at different times ) . Obviously these are entirely different rationals for involvement. It should also be respected that comparing the 'results' of these types of investments is just as silly as the day trader trying to convince the fashion conscious that they have not 'profitted' from their 'investment', eh?

Example 1: day trader shortS gold and makes a profit. Success. Next day goes long and makes profit. Success.

Example 2: person averages into gold at $320 + or - $10. Invested at 20% of assets. Three years later gold is at $420. He cashes in with 30% profit for 3 years. Success.

Example 3: person in asia had gold as hedge. asia in turmoil. gold preserves value. person was successfull, no?

Example 4: person buys gold and pearl neckless for party. Is well thought of for their good taste. Success.

It is obvious that we need to respect each other and not make stupid arguements based on improper comparisons. We can enjoy each other's successes even if we are not inclined to those others' priorities.

I for one, though, will be keeping a sharp eye out for day trading contrarians living in volatile regions who wear gold and pearl necklesses! There is no comparison there, eh? !!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:41 - ID#27454)
Permain Basin, Texas
MIkey, there is another way for the Saudi's to raise money other than raise the price of crude. And they cant raise prices by themselves. However they can influence the price the other way. I remember 1986 and so do a lot of other people herebouts. The Saudi production cost is somewhere around three dollars a barrel. The whole kingdom has less producing oil wells than Los Angeles County! The problem is refining capicity and refinery location. Up until around 1990 the United States had enough refinery capicity to take care of the domestic market. Now in addition to the 60% import of crude oil over 30% of the refined product consumed in the US comes from offshore. Saudi ( Texaco ) and South America ( Citgo ) . So now if there is a supply problem it will not only affect the refinerys, but it will hit the consumer a lot quicker. IMHO when gasoline gets to 1.50 people will say so what. when it gets to 2.00 people will be crying for "The Government" to do somthing. Me thinks by then creditors will be calling in their chits.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:41 - ID#258129)
ID#194306 or whoever you are
I was always wondering, how some people expect world-wide crash and sky-high XAU at the same time. To my opinion, if it will happened, noone will like the result

Here's Allen
(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:47 - ID#353132)
and here's why not
2 ) You invested in gold back in 1981,
1987, 1994, ( pick any year ) for the long-haul
and did not care about day to day movement.
Success? I think not. Your projection of $420
is based on what? Wishful thinking?
4 ) People wearing lots of gold are viewed as
a success? No, they're viewed as cheesy, or
as mobsters.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:49 - ID#287279)
w domu
Kra kre mija i wir mija. Tu lis ma nore, a ja nos tre.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:49 - ID#251213)
Does anyone else see the SP 500 close at the apex of a trinagle? The implication being that the Market will do Wednesday what it did Monday

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:50 - ID#287279)
w domu
Czy sa na tym "site" Polacy?

hey jkflaj
(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:50 - ID#353132)
balanced hand typing our specialty?
Which Monday? Last Monday or this Monday?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:51 - ID#246224)
@Arden & All RE: COMEX Stocks
We were seeing a vast acceleration in withdrawls for the COMEX stocks and then it slowed WAY down ( 32Koz, 34 Koz, 64Koz, 72Koz, 5.5Koz, 10.5Koz ) . I'm interested in seeing if there have been large deposits that are hidding demand now. Seems that way for silver. There were no big deposits for months and no this 500+Koz!?! Is it possible to get movement numbers within COMEX such as fresh withdrawls, fresh deposits, xfer from registered to eligible and eligible to registered? Just when things were getting interesting, all of a sudden the numbers cooled off!!!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:51 - ID#320147)
The Mad Doctor is here but where is his sidekick, the Pest ?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:53 - ID#57232)
@Work Saudi Arabian Riyal vs SDR
Selby ( Toronto ) ,SDRer, Hem: I have not been able to scroll through all the posts today. I would agree with Selby that the Saudi Arabian Riyal is not pegged to the SDR -- it has been constant for as long as I can remember. I was monitoring it for signs of currency instability for some time and found none. I hope I am not repeating what others have said earlier.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 17:56 - ID#239306)
@hai, doomo
Krakre mijai wirmija. Tulis manore, aja nostre.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 18:02 - ID#251213)
1750 poster and question

I was refering to Monday this week. so I am looking at an explosion upwards on wednesday tomorrow

(Tue Nov 04 1997 18:03 - ID#224135)
@ el-nino update
Typhoons ravage Asia. Parts of Burma to be evacuated. Philipines hit
by savage winds and tidal waves. All weather events look like being
Aussie Navy drop patrol boat onto edge of jetty, crushing jetty and
patrol boat. I have not laughed so hard in years. Looks like classic
slap stick on video footage.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 18:04 - ID#320147)
They complement eack other perfectly. The Mad Doctor has high IQ with low self esteem. Pest is his exact opposite.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 18:04 - ID#287279)
w domu
One cracker for you. Good job.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 18:06 - ID#130215)
No deberias hacer eso! Los gringos van a sospechar...

(Tue Nov 04 1997 18:11 - ID#287279)
Talvez no van a sospechor.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 18:12 - ID#346140)
See what happens when you forget your ID. Ego's get in the way too : )
Happy trading to all.
P.S.: any online coin pricing services ( Plat proof Nobles, Gold Coronas, Sovereigns ( 1915 ) etc? URL's? thanks in advance.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 18:13 - ID#335190)
Real-world problems @ Who did this to me? I can't feed my family!!
November 4, 1997
Global volatility has human costs - Brady

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Big players in the world's economic markets should be aware that there is a human cost involved in their ability to instantly move money around the globe, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady said Tuesday.

Brady told Reuters the dramatic drops in Southeast Asian markets and volatility in Latin America were partly a result of the "cyberdollar," money that can flit in and out of markets around the world at the touch of a computer key. Currency speculators have been blamed for market turmoil in Southeast Asia that recently spilled over into Latin America
and sharply eroded the value of regional currencies. A drop in Hong Kong stocks Tuesday signaled that the global malaise is not over yet.

"There is a real human dimension to this thing that you have to get your mind around," said Brady, the Treasury Secretary in the 1980's who assembled the Latin America debt settlement plan that bears his name.

"People are saying, 'Who did this to me? I can't feed my family,"' said Brady, who is attending a Salomon Brothers conference on Latin American stocks. "These are real-world problems that go along with the world market." Brady, who now is chief executive of Darby Overseas Investment Ltd. in Washington, said some emerging market countries might be tempted to restrict money flows as a way to protect themselves. For example, Chile taxes foreign capital when it enters the country.

"If this turns into a system where we will have entrance taxes and exit taxes, that's not an improvement," he said. In an address to the conference, Brady said the volatility in United States and world markets recently underscored that emerging markets would "continue to be optional holdings for aggressive investors.

"The episodes of volatility that we saw last week will be a continuing feature."

(Tue Nov 04 1997 18:14 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.49

(Tue Nov 04 1997 18:16 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .279

(Tue Nov 04 1997 18:19 - ID#335190)
Crisis in progress @ Warning signs
November 4, 1997
Asian turmoil seen biting into U.S. ag exports

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - A sharp drop in the value of four Southeast Asian currencies could reduce U.S. agricultural exports by as much as $575 million annually over the next one or two years, according to a new U.S. Agriculture Department analysis obtained by Reuters Tuesday.

But while that figure represents about 20 percent of annual U.S. agricultural exports to the four countries -- Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia -- it is only about 1 percent of total U.S. farms exports, a USDA aide said.

But "if the crisis continues to deepen and spreads to other Asian economies," the impact on U.S. agricultural exports could be far greater than currently anticipated, USDA said.

"There are already warning signs that the currency turmoil seen in Southeast Asia is spreading to other parts of Asia, with Hong Kong and Taiwan among the most noteworthy," USDA said. Elaborating on that point, Dwyer noted that USDA's analysis assumes currency exchange rates in the region will remain at current levels.

But "this is a crisis in progress," he said. That makes it difficult to say with certainty what the final outcome will be, he added

(Tue Nov 04 1997 18:52 - ID#241277)
Rothschild's Death...Illusions?
To all on Kitco: What should we make of today's announcement of the death of Baron Edmond de Rothschild who died in Geneva today at 71 years of age? He was undoubtedly the richest of the Rothschilds from the French house and descendant of James ( French House ) son of Mayer. His son Benjamin, 34, will succeed him as president of Paris-based Cie Financiere Holding Benjamein et Edmond de Rothschild. the report also notes "he was believed to be the richest member of a family that has played a major role in French business and culture for nearly two centuries."

Knowing a little about the Rothschilds, you will learn that when they anticipate a death they have been known to depress markets or stock prices in advance of their death. They did this in recent times ( early 20th century ) with one of the Roths ( can't remember his name, but from the London house ) which the family, knowing the father was about to die and knowing taxes on the state would be based on the value of the estate at his death, went into a selling spree in the market just before his death, depressing share prices for major firms. Shortly after his death they bought up stocks again. This effectively reduced the value of assets in the estate for tax purposes. This comes from "The Rothschilds" I read this summer.

Could it be that the Roths were at this trick again in last weeks market lurches just before Edmond's death? Was George Soros involved as their currency trader, extraordinaire? Who knows!....

The Roths are also known to keep a secret set of books that are never ever revealed as part of the last will and testament...these are simply passed on to the male offspring, first son ( Benjamin, in this case ) much of their wealth will remain unaccounted for for tax purposes even if they pulled this stunt in last weeks markets.

Is the Baron really dead or is this just a carefully planned announcement for the Baron to go underground to work on other projects?...and that ain't making fine wines!

BTW: It was estimated that the Rothschild family wealth stood at $6.5 billion way back in 1860. Compounding that at an average 8%/annum growth rates gives you a present value of $266,000 billion U.S.. Now that can buy a lot of leverage in the market and to think what impact they have on the LBMA in London each day!

Happy days!...

(Tue Nov 04 1997 18:52 - ID#170235)
My analysis today is the same as yesterday. US stocks put in a weak rally on yet another day of declining volume. While the US market did not turn down today, stock markets around the world did. The DJIA remains in a weak position -- ready to collapse. Gold will fare better during the next stock market collapse. The rise in the gold-lease-rate a week ago indicated tremendous buying pressure in gold at that time. Pressure in the cash markets will soon force the hand of the gold short-sellers.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:03 - ID#316409)
@ Zardoz
This Rothschild stuff is old news Zardoz. I posted it yesterday, that it's all a conspiracy of the Jewish bankers and Rothschild faked his death. But once again, your posts are much better than the HBO comedy hour.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:05 - ID#316409)
@ Puetz
Puetz you never fail to amuse me and entertain. Now it's a bear market cause it's rallying on "Declining volume". Just what kind of volume do you expect after the two highest volume trading days in history? Accelerating volume? Keep up the good wotk Puetz. Keep makin money for folks like Korondy who listened to you and is now bankrupt.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:06 - ID#57232)
@The Rothschilds
Zardoz: Great post on the Rothschilds! Perhaps they have a will that rolls over continuously from Heir to Heir. My guess is that the death of a Rothschild might have the market depressing effect beforehand -- because it has happened before, but that the policy of the Rothschild family is not that dependent on the policies of any single person. Isn't it ironic that in this era of information explosion and vitually instant access to a multitude of databases, that the inner workings of the Rothschild family is as secretive as it was hundreds of years ago? I wonder if the Rothschild family identifies more with any specific country than with others -- Switzerland, perhaps? Why is the LBMA in London? Historical reasons only? Is there a New World Rothschild's branch of the family?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:07 - ID#31868)
LGB: And pray tell. How would you catagorize your own pontifications and posts.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:08 - ID#316409)
@ Who Cares
If you're still around Who Cares, your questions of yesterday re Japan are not worthy of detailed response. Anyone who'd sone the tiniest buit of study knows Japan has been in recession for 7 years ( or 8 to 10 depending on who you want to believe ) . In any case their stock market is off approx. 50% in that time frame, and certainly didn't drag ours down with it now did it?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:11 - ID#334159)
@Fed Up
LGB-Ur like the chubby little guy in school who cudn't wait to tell the teacher.
A little goes a long way!!!!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:13 - ID#31868)
JTF: It is only recently that privacy has become meaningless. The media, the government, etc. I am sure, regarding the people to whom you refer, well placed phone calls go a long way. And they are told only what they need to know.

But Americans have not got a clue about privacy.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:13 - ID#316409)
@ Tolerant1
How would I characterize my posts Tolerant? Simple. Every market market call I've made here on Kitco to date has been accurate. Every serious point I've traied to make has been based in analytical reasoning and actual facts rather than VooDoo Gloom and Doom nonsense. My satirical posts are for amusement and to try and point to the utter ridiculousness of the posts by folks like that fine Anti Semite "Zardoz" ( we've been hearing this Rothschild/Rockafeller/Soros nonsense for decades ) .

You may not like my style, as many don't, but what matters to me is being right on the markets. Being a fool and a "nice guy" doesn't appeal to me when it comes to investment dollars. I'll continue to pontificate ad nauseum, as long as utter nonsense continues to get posted.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:13 - ID#426220)
LBMA EXPOS: PART 9 (November 3, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis Compiled by Red Baron
The Onion PARADOX peels yet another layer away from the eventual truth of the LONDON BULLION MARKETING ASSOCIATION...:

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:14 - ID#316409)
@ Cork
You're not the cork off that old bottle of Cod Liver Oil by any chance are you?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:15 - ID#31868)
LGB: Once through the strainer and I get accurate and funny. Okay. Just asking.

Green Fields
(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:19 - ID#428228)
@ history lesson
LGB, Sir I was wondering if anything of consequence will happen if
the Nikkei breaks down below 15000 based on the evidence of the last
8 years? Will you be on playground duty tomorrow Sir? Just aking for
my sister you know.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:22 - ID#241277)
JTF: The Rothschilds are the epitomy of family..they keep everything in the family and protect the family ( like the Mafia ) ..they have no interest in sharing such information about their wealth with others. Can you blame them.

They are INTERNATIONAL in scope with their wealth extended in almost every country in the world...they started in Germany and then spread ( through 5 brothers ) to England, France, Prussia, Italy, and Austria. The London and French houses are the strongest remaining houses...they came to America too and invested heavily in gold mining properties in Canada after WWII, but are still concentrated primarily in Europe. That is why they are so influential still in the LBMA in London, because they are the ancient merchant bankers of the royalty of England and all of Europe ( excepting Russia ) ...they are also the ancient gold traders of Europe since 1776, when Mayer Rothschild started it all in Frankfurt. They continue to note gold and treasuries trading as the prime business of N.M. Rothschild and Sons of the London house.

Hope you all enjoy this trivia!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:22 - ID#316409)
@ Greensleeves (Almost Christmas)
Answer, NO. What of consequence happened to ur DOW and our economy during the brutal Japanese bear, downturn of the past 7,8 years? The best Bull market, Economic recovery in U.S. history. So now we're worried about the piddly Southeast Asian markets? Puuhhleaase!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:26 - ID#217260)
Gold demand
``Already there are signs that economic and financial market conditions that may stimulate investor demand are turning in favor of

Over the past few years net accumulation of gold bullion and coins has declined to the lowest levels since the early 1970s.

But through the first nine months of 1997, demand for the U.S. Mint's American Eagle gold coins reached 461,750 ounces, up 186
pct from 161,000 ounces in the same period in 1996.

Total world coin sales in 1997 could reach 3.4 million ounces, up 70 pct on last year.

Meanwhile, bullion demand is projected at 4.7 million ounces for investment purposes this year, more than triple the sales in 1996,
CPM said.

In total in 1997 net investment demand is projected at 8.7 million ounces, more than double last year's level.

``While this growth may seem impressive on a percentage basis, the fact is that this year, and even next year, investment demand for
gold bullion will remain at rather low rates from a historical perspective,'' Christian said.

``And net investment demand is not projected to rise to the level of more than 17 million ounces a year which has been related to
periods of sharply rising gold prices in the past.''

But ``investment demand is rising, in what is a rather tight market and this suggests prices will not fall far from here.''

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:28 - ID#316409)
@ DOW precisely on target
The DOW is exactly on target for the specific calls made on Saturday, Sunday, and early Monday AM by yours truly. All other facets of the prediction are precisely on target also. ( DOW up after firming in Asian markets Monday, Gold in narrow languishing range, conspiracy theories abounding on Kitco )

Sorry to be horn blowing, I know that reasoned predictions based on boring fundamentals in the economy, historical trends, and strength of the market is all totally disrespected here, but just for that ocassional change of pace, I thought I'd make a few specific predictions this week.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:29 - ID#233379)
LGB: SHADDUP!!! Asshole.

All that want to listen to LBG raise your hands. I thought so. Didn't see even one.

Anyone want to second the motion that Lurkers should ONLY lurk?

Green Fields
(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:34 - ID#428228)
@ school
LGB, Sir; I have been told by a London economist living in Japan
that a Nikkei plunge below 15000 will spell absolute disaster for
Japanese banks. Bottom line, the Banking system of Japan and its
implosion will have tremendous ramifications for the rest of the world. Any further comment sir?

Mr. Mick
(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:39 - ID#345321)
@The Boat in Berkhamstead
What are/is "spoos"????????????

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:40 - ID#316409)
@ Greenie, Silverite
The biggest problem with a complete financial meltdown in Japan would be the large amount of U.S. treasury debt they hold, and our reliance on foreign investment in U.S. to service our debt. However, I believe that Japan is in the process of recovery ( their current "record" low unemployment rate is an ASTOUNDING 3%! ) , and even if they had financial crises in their banking system, an IMF deal would be arranged as it has been for every similar crises of late ( Mexico comes to mind ) .

Silverite, only in your dreams, sorry you have to wade through some boringly well reasoned posts for a change but I DID post that "National Enquirer" link for you to access if it gets too much for you. I think Puetz, Sheller, Zardoz, and JTF hang out there, you might want to try that site.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:40 - ID#426220)
The "flight to quality" into the U.S. induced such a tremendous
rise in the US$ that those currencies pegged to the greenback
came under pressure. The underlying assets in Asia and South
America became overvalued. They are not worth as much as
implied by the present value of the US$. It is important to
understand that the flight from the Euro into the US$ is the first
and main reason for the present currency crisis in Asia:

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:46 - ID#233379)
LGB: Probably beats the hell out of this site, as long as YOU ain't there! What an ASS!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:47 - ID#262398)


(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:48 - ID#316409)
@ Mr. Mick
"SPOOS" stand for "Soon Puetz Only Owns Shoes" ( and maybe a pair of pants or two ) .

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:50 - ID#316409)
@ Mr. Mick
"SPOOS" stand for "Soon Puetz Only Owns Shoes" ( and maybe a pair of pants or two ) .

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:50 - ID#320102)
Isn't Japan the largest creditor nation on earth? I think we might all be in heap big trouble if she falls.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:51 - ID#316409)
@ Mr. Mick
"SPOOS" also stands for "Silverite Pontificates On Own Stupidity" ( and has nothing else to say ) .

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:51 - ID#348286)
@Roths Child
Zardoz: Fascinating commentary. Soros was reputed to have lost $2 billion in last weeks turmoil, or was that smoke and mirrors???
The FREE MASONS rule the world. That is a fact.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:55 - ID#316409)
@ Bryce
Thank you Bryce ( though my ears are ringing a bit ) . I agree with every word you said. I do indeed believe that Gold's day will come and a crash in the DOW is in the cards someday. Just not today!! Hopefully when that day comes, I and others will have the foresight to have moves most of our assets in that direction.

Remember, LGB stands for "Lurking Gold Bug". I love the metals, but I don't invest with my emotions. When we are headed for major financial crises or recession, I'll be out of the DOW, into other investments, and waiting for the next turn around. Now is not that time.

I am however, very bullish on Silver and have a substantial amount of my non 401K investment net worth invested there.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 19:56 - ID#335190)
Currency @ Assassinations of Presidents (MAI @ Fast Track eh!)
It is interesting to note how many assassinations of Presidents of the United States follow their concern with the issuing of public currency; Lincoln with his Greenback, non-interest-bearing notes, and Garfield, making a pronouncement on currency problems just before he was assassinated ( Kennedy ??????? )

The Bankers could not wrest control of the issuance of money from the citizens of the United States, to whom it had been designated through its Congress by the Constitution, until the Congress granted them their monopoly for a central bank.

In the Senate debate on the Federal Reserve Act, Senator Stone said on December 12 1913,:
"The great banks for years have sought to have and control agents in the Treasury to serve their purpose. Let me quote from this World article, " Just as soon as Mr. McAdoo came to Washington, a women whom the National City Bank had installed in the Treasury Department to get advance information on the condition of banks, and other matters of interest to the big Wall Street group, was removed. Immediately the Secretary and the Assistant Secretary, John Skelton Williams, were criticized severly by the agents of the Wall Street group""

"I myself have known more than one occasion when bankers refused credit to men who opposed their political views and purposes. When Senator Aldrich and others were going around the country exploiting this scheme, the big banks of New York and Chicago were engaged in raising a munificent fund to bolster up the Aldrich propaganda. I have been told by bankers of my own state that contributions to this exploitation fund had been demanded of them and that they had contributed because they were afraid of being blacklisted or boycotted.

There are bankers of this country who are enemies of the public welfare. In the past, a few great banks have followed policies and projects that have paralized the industrial energies of the country to perpetuate their tremendous power over the financial and business industries of America."

Carter Glass states in his autobiography that he was summoned by Woodrow Wilson to the White House, and that Wilson told him he intended to make the reserve notes obligations of the United States. Glass says, " I was for an instant speechless. I remonstrated. There is not any government obligation here, Mr. President. Wilson said he had had to compromise on this point in order to save the bill."

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:00 - ID#233379)
LGB: You should invest in a brain with common sense since, clearly, you don't have any! I think someone stuck a cork up your ass and the s**t has since piled up and supplanted what brain you might have ever had! I think that makes for "S**T-for-brains"!

LGB (Grassy Knoll)
(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:01 - ID#316409)
@ 6Pak, Presidential assasinations
6Pak, you didn't realize before now that all U.S. presidential assasinations were planned by the Rothschilds and all their jewish banker One World financier friends?

Dave in CO
(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:01 - ID#215211)
Silverite, you have my vote. I started reading this site to learn about investing in gold. If I wanted to hear LBJ and Hepwhatever look-alikes spout the DOW party-line, I could tune in to the carnival barkers at CNBC, that all day infomercial for the mutual fund industry.

This is my first and last post until LBJ and Hepwhatever are ex-posters.

Green Fields
(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:01 - ID#428228)
@ spatial relations tutorial
LGB, Sir; Looking at the chart of the Nikkei, it has fallen 20%
since 30 July 97. I would have thought to end this downward trend
would require quite a severe downward spike which would put it in
13000-14000 territory. I'll put my money on the fact that the Nikkei
will do this soon and Hashimoto will have no choose but to sell
Could you please make a comment LGB, Sir, regarding your reading of
the Nikkei chart and where you think it will be in 6 weeks.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:05 - ID#426220)
Green Fields: REF YOUR "I have been told by a London economist living in Japan that a Nikkei plunge below 15000 will spell absolute disaster for
Japanese banks." Unfortunately, the London economist is accepting the current Japanese government propaganda at 15000 is the crucial level. A full four years ago the Bank of International Settlements ( BIS ) - the Central Bank to all Central Banks clearly stated "that with the Nikkei at 17000, most Japanese banks are right at the 8% critical line for capital-to-loan ratios. If the market falls further, they will have to call in loans. This will exacerbate the decline in property values further weakening their captial-to-loan ratios. And the spiral continues... As I speak the Nikkei is at 16426 -- and falling. The figure of 15000 is invented by the Nippon government in a pathetic attempt to put off the inevitable. The BOJ will be forced to dump US T-Bonds and buy gold:

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:07 - ID#255151)

Good evening fellow Kitcoites. Allen--Your 17:37 was among the best posts I've read. Should be read daily until memorized. Put me in category 2. #346140--Perhaps some of the coin dealers here at Kitco could help. Scotty, Bob M, RJ? Also, Been thinking about a new handle--Kitco Gold Bug and shortening it to KGB!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:08 - ID#316409)
@ Dave in CO
Don't let the door..... Incidentally, DOW party liner I'm not. I invest in Gold SIlver Platinum Dow Bonds depending on market conditions, SOUND analysis ( not the Kitco VooDOo analysis you've been reading ) , and a very broad spectrum of "layman" study and research. Unlike the snakeoil newsletter peddlers, and Anti Semite Nazi Klanners that have an agenda here, I am not mated to any investment point of view. My investment portfolio and strategy will constantly change as conditions in our economy change. You guys who believe in Monolithic views ought to just buy AE's. lose your money for a decade or so, and then become one of the embittered half bankrupt investors we see posting here so often. I read the site for balance and diversity of views. And I feel free to slam the really ridiculous ones in the ( remote ) hope that the poster of such views can produce something substantive to back their position. Like maybe a track record or sound analysis that considers all factors.

Like many that came before you, I can only advise folks like you who hate having their neurons challeneged to foem your own site, back pat each other all day long on how smart you are to buy Gold, and count your losses.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:09 - ID#348286)
SEC tells firms to make millennium issue top priority

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt is telling all the nation's securities firms that bracing for year 2000 computer glitches must be their top priority.

``Preparing for the year 2000 should be of the highest priority for securities firms,'' Levitt wrote in letters to nearly 10,000 firms.

Wall Street's top regulator said he is concerned that the securities industry is prepared in time for potential computer problems arising in the year 2000.

``Unless modifications are made, at midnight on Dec. 31, 1999, the vast majority of computer systems may not be able to distinguish the year 2000 from the year 1900,'' Levitt wrote.

He warned that the absence of computer modifications could have ``extremely serious consequences'' for the financial system.

Levitt's latest warning comes as key House lawmakers have been pushing Wall Street to shift stock trading to decimals from fractions, even as firms have warned they face costly and complicated preparations for the year 2000.

The regulator's latest request could put an industry-wide shift to decimals on hold.

In his letters, Levitt encouraged the firms to have all necessary computer modifications for the Year 2000 in place by the end of 1998 to allow for an industry-wide testing in 1999.

``I also encourage you to keep the regulatory authorities apprised of your progress and to notify them immediately if you expect any problems,'' Levitt wrote.

^REUTERS@ Reut16:36 11-03-97

( 03 Nov 1997 16:30 EST )

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:11 - ID#233379)
Dave in CO: ME TOO! I HAVE enjoyed looking in here but I think it is time to "participate"! Hear THAT LGB?

You all stand back and enjoy the "action"!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:12 - ID#364121)
PUETZ I totally agree wtih your analysis. The market will expierence
declining volume and little progress. The market hates indecison
and the mass of unseasoned and uneducated investor will quickly
realize there may no longer be double digit returns coming in the
near future. The Chinese water torture abatement of their paper
profits will force them to head for the exits. Too late. For example
today on the close there were at least four trading halts in the last
minutes of at least four of the dow components. Reason: upticks
needed for short selling and I do believe the boys were filled. Bye!

Spud Master
(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:13 - ID#273112)
LGB, kindly cease your racist and anti-semite baiting & poisoning of the well. People who can not defend their points in an argument always resort to such tactics. Try and deport yourself in a manner worthy of an educated and reasoned individual. I realize what you are trying to do; were it in a room of individuals you would have been bodily picked up and thrown out the front door long ago. Why do you persist in using language and other obseqious statements that you would be ashamed to use in person?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:14 - ID#233379)
LGB: RAH, RAH, RAH!!! WE HEAR IT EVERDAY! WHY! WHY! WHY! Stick it up you ass! Same place you head is!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:15 - ID#348286)
@Y2K and the IRS
Monday, Nov. 3, 1997
Date-dependent IRS could implode - but don't hold your breath
by Peter Lewis
Seattle Times staff reporter

Is there any agency that has more people morbidly salivating over the possibility that the Millennium Bug will bring it down than the Internal Revenue Service?

The IRS may possess the mother of all date-dependent computer systems: notices, refunds, interest calculations, taxpayer-account adjustments, accounting transactions - all are time driven.

The agency, which has a less-than-stellar record on computer projects, now faces perhaps its most daunting technology task: surviving 2000. It is rewriting an estimated 100 million lines of code for its systems to work after Dec. 31, 1999.

"It ( the code ) all has to be expanded ( from 2 ) to 4 digits" to make it year-2000 compliant, said John Yost, IRS year-2000 project director.

This fiscal year alone, the IRS is spending more than double the $45 million originally appropriated for conversion costs, said Yost.

"We think we'll be spending several hundred million dollars on this from beginning to end," he said. "There's nobody else who can save us. We have to do this job."

The IRS has had 40 people in management and 400 people in the field dedicated to converting 70,000 computer programs and program components - all written using two-digit years. About 40 percent of the work will be done by contractors the IRS hires, agency officials said.

"We're about 35 percent of the way through making those changes," Yost said in a recent interview. "That's a measure of not just changing the code, but testing through to implementation and even post-production steps of systemwide certification."

Yost said the challenge is simple: "If our software doesn't work, the IRS can't run."

Should the agency fail, disastrous effects could ripple through government and the economy. In 1996, the IRS collected nearly $1.4 trillion and issued refunds totaling more than $110 billion.

Green Fields
(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:18 - ID#428228)
@ recess
Vonsky; Thankyou for your reply. Yes I have heard about 17000 being
critical, but I'm a conservative sod. Whats your take on the Nikkei

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:19 - ID#287279)
More Gold
More Gold,
IRS will not make it. Guaranteed!
We will have either national sales tax or flat rate for everyone with no deductions by 1999. Guaranteed!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:19 - ID#233379)
Spud Master: Kindly step aside at this time, if you will. I'm gonna have this "pasti" by his near non-existent kazoongas before I'm done! Wouldn't want you to inadvertently get an "elbow" in the face. Thanks. P.S. Enjoy you postings!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:21 - ID#347457)
@Yahoo don't do quotes today?
Folks, I can't get to Yahoo quotes today. Is it just me or Yahoo caved in? I don't see any announcement about it and I use it to watch markets around the world. Anybody have the same problem?!?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:22 - ID#348286)
Y2K - Humour
Crave excitement? 12 reasons to ignore the year-2000 problem

1. Jan. 1, 2000, falls on a Saturday and Monday's a holiday - you'll have plenty of time over the weekend.

2. You crave the excitement of computer-system crashes.

3. You always enjoyed your granddad's tales of the Great Depression and want a similar experience.

4. Nostradamus never mentioned this problem.

5. You believe a comet is due to hit Earth in 2000 - why bother?

6. Your horoscope said you should stay home for all of the year 2000.

7. You'd rather drink coffee than champagne on New Year's Eve.

8. You don't have time right now - check back with you again next year when things slow down.

9. You'll be retired and relaxing somewhere on a beach when year 2000 rolls around.

10. You're 95, on life-support and haven't paid your electric bill for the past three months.

11. You're not using computers yet; you're waiting for the prices to come down.

12. There's no way just two missing digits can possibly cause that much trouble.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:25 - ID#287279)
More Gold

This FEDERAL COMPUTER WEEK story ( Oct. 20 ) reports on the testimony of Arthur Gross, the Chief Information Officer of the IRS.
Gross says that the IRS is not yet through with its inventory. He says
that some of the code has been repaired, but the IRS is unlikely to finish on schedule.
In addition, Gross said that while IRS computer specialists have
identified 60 million to 70 million lines of code and the agency is working feverishly to correct its 120 mission-critical systems, he was doubtful that the IRS will find all the lines of date-sensitive code needed to be fixed.
"The entire IRS inventory still has not been fully fleshed out and like
many large organizations...we still have not fully captured the scope and
breadth of the problems in terms of some applications," he said.
"Frankly, I'm skeptical." . . .
Gross noted that the IRS has completed the awareness and assessment
stages. In addition, the agency is 52 percent through the renovation step, has completed 22 percent of testing and 4 percent of installing the fixed systems.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:27 - ID#348286)
Shek, I agree. I've seen systems that in themselves would take 1 Year to convert. The IRS is well behind. If they need me my price will be $500/hour next year. :- ) )

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:27 - ID#348169)
@Dave in CO, Eldorado and ALL
Please Guys and Gals. Just because we have to put up with ceaseless stupidity from the occasional psycho and/or endless hyberbole from self-centered boars, ( or sorry boors ) , that is NO reason that the rest of us should cease to enjoy each other's company and PARTICIPATE. To destroy this wondrous celebration of freedom of thought IS the purpose of our narrow-minded friends. Why cave-in and let them win. Think about it. To not post just because of the idiocy and self-righteous boredom of these pests is self-defeating. Think about it. Please. Glad to see your first post Dave in CO, Please don't wait long to post your next.
Also. Please. I know there are a lot, ( hundreds, if not thousands ) of other lurkers here. Stand up and be counted. Put your best foot forward and make that initial post. Why should certain others make 10-20 posts a day, ad nauseum, and you don't even add one? Don't be afraid to speak up. It's easy! Like Nike says, 'JUST DO IT"!.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:27 - ID#255151)

Shek--Agree with you on Flat/Sales tax. It would be helpful to think out what effect this will have on interest rates, stocks, and precious metals. Any thoughts?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:30 - ID#287279)
More Gold

This document is amazing. Its title: "Request for Comments ( RFC ) for Modernization Prime Systems Integration Services Contractor."
Behind this seemingly innocuous verbiage lies a time bomb for the
U.S. government, the T-bill market, and every central bank that is
holding U.S. debt instead of gold.
On May 15, 1997, the IRS issued a call for large, experienced
computer code repair companies ( $200 million in working capital ) to
sign up to help restructure the entire IRS computer system. It's at the
breaking point. The Millennium Bug will break it.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:34 - ID#348286)
@Consultants and analysts estimate the fix could end up costing billions, if not trillions. Already, companies and governments are kicking off programs that, in some cases, will cost them millions individually.
Sunday, Nov. 2, 1997
The computer time bomb

by Peter Lewis and Thomas W. Haines
Seattle Times staff reporters

Once a month, about three dozen technology specialists from Northwest companies and governments get together to talk about lots of big computers and two little digits.

It's not the type of conversation that usually earns top-secret status.

But to the people in the room - representing state and local governments, companies such as Weyerhaeuser, Safeco, The Seattle Times and Nordstrom - the question of what to do about those computers and those two digits is serious business.

So serious and financially sensitive that each is obliged to sign an agreement promising not to talk about what's discussed.

The group's chosen name, PSY2KO ( for Puget Sound Year 2000 Organization ) , is a humorous attempt to capture its deadline - Jan. 1, 2000 - and a sense of the stress created by that deadline.

As 2000 approaches, and with it the arrival of what is known in technology circles as the Millennium Bug, more and more organizations are trying to beat the clock.

The challenge is simple: Fix a decades-old programming decision that threatens to miscalculate computer-generated dates, affecting everything from bank accounts to federal taxes to whether elevator doors open New Year's Day 2000.

Consultants and analysts estimate the fix could end up costing billions, if not trillions. Already, companies and governments are kicking off programs that, in some cases, will cost them millions individually.


To paint a picture of what's at stake, a group of folks from Alaska Airlines showed up at one PSY2KO meeting with this skit:

The time: March 1, 2000.

The scene: An Alaska Airlines ticket counter at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.

The passenger at the counter finds his Seattle-to-San Francisco fare is miscalculated. His credit card is rejected.

The airline's pilot records show all pilot training has been completed for the next 100 years, and all airplane parts have been serviced for 100 years, too.

If the passenger gets on the flight, the vegetarian meal he requested would have been delivered the day before. ( The caterer's computer forgot that 2000 is a leap year. )

To be sure, the skit is an extreme example.

Officials at Alaska are quick to say they're working to make sure that it never becomes a reality. And other companies say they have their own plans in place.

PSY2KO papers, including meeting minutes obtained by The Times under a public disclosure request to King County, illustrate the issue's gravity. Back in August 1996, Weyerhaeuser issued this wake-up call:

"The Year 2000 is, quite frankly, a business continuation issue. Because of its significance, stock analysts are beginning to ask companies about their Year 2000 plans in their reviews of corporate performance."

What goes on at PSY2KO meetings is being mirrored around the country in one form or another, as "user" or "self-help" groups gather to grapple with the ins and outs of a complicated challenge that pressures management as much as technicians.

One issue facing these groups is the raging debate between those who see doomsday and others who see a manageable problem.

Those who take the former view say that, because of slow response by government and business, 2000 will bring a digital Armageddon, affecting financial markets, air-traffic control and communications networks.

Others counter that such fear is overblown, that when 2000 arrives things will be OK.

In the middle sit computer experts who contend the truth is somewhere in between.

"This ( year 2000 ) debate is inherently a problem where you don't get balance. It's as usual. People who want to make some money from it are going to make it a bigger thing" than it is, says David Notkin, a computer-science professor at the University of Washington. "I really believe they're in a doomsday mode. I think the truth is nobody knows."

We do know how we got into this mess.

Computer resources were tight in the 1960s, when many of the current software programs for mainframe computers were written. To save space, programmers wrote four-digit dates as two digits - for example, "1945" and "1968" became "45" and "68."

At the time, conventional wisdom goes, programmers figured updated programs would come along well before 2000, preventing any foul-ups with the dates. Problem is, they didn't come along. Many companies and agencies are left with systems laced with old computer code that still harbors the two-digit date fields.

Already, isolated incidents have shown how ancient computer programs can foul up today's world:

-- In Orange County, N.C., animal-control officers became alarmed recently when, despite their best efforts to vaccinate more animals to prevent rabies, computers showed a continually declining rate of vaccinated pets. It turns out the county's mainframe computer was recording the newly vaccinated pets as having received shots in 1897. As a result, the pet vaccinations were classified as expired.

-- In August, a small fruit-and-vegetable market owner sued an Atlanta-based cash-register company for allegedly providing equipment that can't handle 2000 dates. The suit, filed in a state court in Michigan, charges that TEC America cash registers shut down when customers offered credit cards with expiration dates past 2000. A TEC spokesman blamed the credit-card industry.

-- At the stroke of midnight last Dec. 30, the Tiwai Point aluminum smelter in New Zealand went bonkers. Each of the 660 process-control computers hung up simultaneously as the date turned to Dec. 31 - the 366th day of 1996, a leap year.

Those most adamant about the dangers of the year 2000 say costs to government and business are going to skyrocket.

Capers Jones, an executive who has studied software costs for more than a decade, estimates that the worldwide tab - software and hardware investments, as well as lawsuits - will climb to $3.6 trillion, including the cost of repairs and damages that would continue to mount into the next century. That's about $621 for every person on the planet.

Jones is hardly alone. The Gartner Group, a consulting company based in Connecticut, projects costs for the software end of the fix at $600 billion, $70 billion more than Jones. The San Francisco law firm of Thelen, Marrin, Johnson & Bridges gives what it calls a "conservative" projection of $1 trillion in private-sector legal costs alone, a figure $700 billion more than that predicted by Jones.

One recent study found that corporate leaders are at least beginning to pay attention.

Executives at more than 96 percent of the Fortune 500 companies, the biggest in a variety of industries, are directly involved in dealing with the year 2000 issue, according to a recent poll by Cap Gemini America, a year 2000 consulting company. But Cap Gemini warns that, although many are paying attention, few have detailed plans in place.

Industry analysts agree that major corporations, those with information-systems staffs and the computer systems critical to their success, are ahead of many when it comes to making sure bank accounts are accurate, airplane reservations are current and pharmacy prescriptions are filled on Jan. 1, 2000.

But, they say, it's the midsize and smaller companies, often without the resources, often relying on outside software vendors and consultants, who could face the biggest problems.

Bigger questions are raised when all these independent computer networks are considered together. Computer systems must "talk" with each other, sharing data about financial records, store inventory or airplane schedules. The risk: "Dirty" systems may invade "clean" ones.

To complicate matters, a fix in one system may not work when it communicates with another system, eliminating the existence of a single "silver bullet" that could eliminate the problem.

Electronic moats

The possibility of trading contaminated data has caused tension among government agencies, each of which is scrambling to protect its computer systems.

Last week in Pittsburgh, state and federal chief information officers held a year 2000 summit to discuss interfaces, mutual certification and testing, and electronic bridges. The roughly 100 participants agreed on a preferred date format for data exchange: four contiguous digits for the year. If a particular system cannot send data in that format, the agency is required to notify their data partners no later than January 1998.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:37 - ID#287279)
I don't know. At this time I am prepared to see ANYTHING. Stocks might drop 600 points and gold $20. ( See last week )

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:37 - ID#233379)
Mooney: It is now going to cut both ways! I would recommend to ALL that they SKIP over ALL POSTINGS from me AND LGB and comment to/on neither! Makes it VERY EASY to edit out/skip the idiocy and lunacy. I'VE HAD ENOUGH!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:39 - ID#31868)
I take no credit for the following. Somebody posted it a while back. It makes for some solid reading on the 2000 glitch.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:41 - ID#255151)

Shek MoreGold Miro--One other point. As bad as Y2K is in the US, the rest of the world is WAY behind in confronting this!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:41 - ID#287279)
I believe that the ongoing talk about IRS reform is just a begining. I anticipated it last spring. No doubt aboutflat rate or national sales atx by 1999.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:43 - ID#287279)
You are right on the money. If expert like Yourdan is concerned, it's time to be scared.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:43 - ID#255190)

Thanks for your note. I try. Egotism is such a narcotic. Very addicting, so easy to use. We each make our own valuation. And can only see our success according to what make sense to us. I have known a few people with down's syndrome who are quite happy and productive in their own right. Often we overlook simplicity and goodness as great in price. Solomon was right: work hard, enjoy the fruits of your own labor. Give God honor and obey Him. Pass something on to your heirs, but don't expect to much from them. There will be both good and bad times. Reject evil and persue good. Wisdom is more priceless than all possessions.

The Major
(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:45 - ID#372425)
@Gold Stocks Suck Right Now
Delphie ( sp ) Your right on dude.Bad enough to have to have to " look out
for falling prices " on gold,then to have to do the same on the general
market is suicide!!Can't win my friend on gold stocks right now.Regards.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:46 - ID#255190)

Did we lose the gold spot feed at 09:00 NYC time? Looks like someone drew the line with a ruler.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:49 - ID#31868)
Shek: I liked the web site and the info. The fella wrote in a real down to earth manner, which I appreciated as it takes me an hour and a half to watch Sixty Minutes.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:49 - ID#335190)
LGB @ 20:01
Didn't know that, thanks, that sure explains everything, eh!. I didn't need to read all these books. I only needed to have been in the company of a person such as yourself. I have keep poor company. All the economic problems on earth, is caused by the JEW, eh! Boy, do I feel better now.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:53 - ID#255190)

Back to GOLD discussion. Many visiting here need not see frothy blather. Gold ceiling at $315. Floor at $310. Accumulation of physical procedes heavily here and abroad. COMEX receiving supply but it is being overwhelmed with withdrawls. They can try to suppresss this, but we know it only provides a buying opportunity.


We have witnessed the first wave of buying. It basicly cleaned out local supplies. Next time there will be MANY MORE in front and behind you.


Don't wait for a crisis like last monday. You will be sorely disappointed to find there will be no gold available.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 20:56 - ID#348286)
@Y2K - Estimates of the total legal cost of the problem range from several billion dollars to $1 trillion.
Monday, Nov. 3, 1997
Year-2000 woes will be a windfall for consultants, software makers

by Rebecca Smullin
Seattle Times business reporter

Where there's risk, there's bound to be money for somebody. The year-2000 computer problem is no exception.

Some companies are banking their fortunes on helping others sail smoothly into the next century, when many computers won't understand dates properly unless they are reprogrammed.

So far, the gamble's paying off.

Year-2000 panic has created a profitable market for the consulting services and software that help companies update their computer systems. Companies devoted entirely to year-2000 work are making a quick buck and a name for themselves on the market. Larger, established companies are using the opportunity to rein in more Fortune 500 customers.

Seattle-area consulting companies say they are paying programmers and consultants 10 percent to 25 percent more than last year. They expect wages to keep rising as demand for year-2000 work increases.

One of several companies focused solely on year-2000 work, Bellevue-based Data Dimensions has risen from 25 years as a small technology temporary-services agency to become a major player in year-2000 consulting work.

Data Dimensions said that during the third quarter, ending Sept. 30, it began work on new year-2000 business that will result in sales of at least $39 million over the life of the projects.

"When you have companies like Coca-Cola and Chase Manhattan who have come forward and said, `This is a problem for us,' I don't see how anyone can say it's not a big market," said Larry Martin, Data Dimensions chief executive officer and president.

Data Dimensions devoted all its resources to the year-2000 problem, once it recognized the business opportunity. The company has grown from 66 employees at the end of 1994 to about 320 today.

The company now has two international subsidiaries and 12 U.S. offices, 11 more than when Martin took over at the end of 1992.

"The demand is probably growing faster than we are," Martin said.

The company has helped about 200 companies and government agencies assess, manage or fix their year-2000 problems.

The average contract size is about $100,000, Martin said. Bank of Boston, Blue Cross Blue Shield, several California state agencies, and Tacoma-based Frank Russell are among the company's customers.

At the other end of the consulting spectrum is Keane, a $600 million consulting company.

Year-2000 work only accounts for about 20 percent of the company's revenues.

But Senior Vice President Brian Keane is hoping it can attract enough new permanent customers to catapult the 32-year-old company past its goal of reaching $1 billion in annual sales by 2000.

The company has signed about 325 year-2000 deals with 198 large corporate and government clients since the end of 1995.

About half of the clients are new. Successful year-2000 work could lead them back to Keane when they next need technology consultants.

"In this business, people tend to have long-term relationships," Keane said.

The market for software that can help companies prepare for 2000 has also become lucrative.

That's part of the reason Gary Macy and three other former software developers at Lockheed Martin decided to found Paladin Data Systems in Poulsbo three years ago.

The company specializes in helping companies convert from mainframe systems to Oracle database systems, which are year-2000 compliant.

"Very few people want to rewrite their COBOL code," said Macy, referring to a computer language used to program many old mainframe systems.

About half of Paladin's Oracle sales are to companies updating their computers for 2000, Macy said.

Paladin is also hoping to tap into the year-2000 market with a marina-management software package the company is testing now. The package will replace a popular program that is not year-2000 compliant, Macy said.

Boosted by year-2000 demand, the marina management software could bring in $2 million in revenue next year, Macy said. The company's sales last year were about $6.5 million.

Nuts and bolts `factory'

Also jumping into the year-2000 business is Bellevue start-up Emerald Solutions, which has grown from its six founders in February to a 60-employee company today with branch offices in Portland and San Francisco.

As of late August, Emerald Solutions had contracts to rewrite 1 million lines of COBOL code for two clients, and by the end of this year expects to be able to handle 100 million code lines annually - a business potential of about $30 million to $50 million, said President Phil Seeley.

Seeley, previously Consolidated Freightways' executive vice president for sales and marketing, said Emerald Solutions doesn't view itself as a direct competitor with Data Dimensions because the larger company does more planning of year-2000 solutions while Emerald operates a nuts-and-bolts "factory" for rewriting COBOL code.

Emerald Solutions is privately owned, with the largest investment made by founder, CEO and Chairman Steve Darrow, who also founded Beaverton, Ore.-based Claremont Technology.

The year-2000 market will grow even faster over the next two years, as more organizations realize that their computers need an overhaul, said industry analyst Neil Cooper of Cruttenden Roth in Irvine, Calif. The urgency of year-2000 deadlines will mean increasing profits for companies that can help others complete year-2000 projects.

But the honeymoon is bound to end. What will year-2000 companies do after the millennium finally arrives?

They will continue to do year-2000 work until 2002 or 2003, when experts say most year-2000 problems will be cleared up.

After that, diverse consulting and software companies will return to their other products.

Companies that do primarily year-2000 work will need a new niche. Some, like Data Dimensions, hope the introduction of the European Common Currency could create a similar computer-crisis market. Money-management software will need to be reprogrammed to recognize the new currency.

But the transition could be hard, Cooper said.

In the meantime, lawyers and insurers are waiting to mop up what's left after 2000, when some computers are bound to fail.

Companies could face breach-of-contract cases from customers who didn't receive supply shipments on time or whose records were erased due to computer error in 2000. Companies, in turn, could sue software vendors of software that fails.

Estimates of the total legal cost of the problem range from several billion dollars to $1 trillion.

That's brought the insurance companies into the fray. American International Group, Marsh & McLennan, and AON Risk Services are offering multimillion-dollar policies to cover the costs of lawsuits or a loss of business due to computer error in 2000.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:01 - ID#364147)
@ Don't get bent out of shape,I'm not trying to sell my house HERE
Like I said don't get bent out of shape!! Just tryin to add a little HUMAN interest to this site---like what my view is like from this machine ( photo#1 ) and what the damn sunrise looks like from here..

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:03 - ID#194311)
second wave?
looks like downward pressure in asia building up tonight....wave to hit the man on the Street tomorrow

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:04 - ID#31868)
Ah, but the price of progress. It seems insane to me the costs involved, and it just shows that inflation is being manufactured as we speak, monster inflation, the kind with all those zeroes at the end I don't comprehend.

Of course being a lobotomized lemming I realize that currently we all live in an inflation free world. Not!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:08 - ID#197304)
boilermaker city

How in the world do you know this info? I hope you're right but I'd like to see a little proof.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:09 - ID#222167)
The CBOE call/put ratio is also giving a sell-signal today. The short-term trend is soon to be down -- along with the intermediate trend in stocks.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:10 - ID#194311)
Ted;I'm sold...
But how many Oz's do you want for it? I don't carry cash anymore.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:10 - ID#335190)
USofA Workers MAI & Fast track @ A benefit Package to bridge the layoffs
November 4, 1997
Clinton to unveil worker package for fast track

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton is to unveil a package of job-retraining benefits Wednesday in a bid to win support from reluctant House Democrats for expanded "fast track" trade negotiating authority.
"We should seek to do much more in helping American workers and their families when their jobs are lost because of trade or because of technological change, and I will have more to say about that tomorrow," Clinton said Tuesday.

He was speaking to reporters at the White House Rose Garden following Senate approval of a key test vote on fast track legislation.

Administration officials said Clinton would unveil the package at 11:15 a.m. Wednesday at the White House. U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky said the aid to workers who lose their jobs because of imports would amount to about $4 billion in five years.

The package was designed to appeal to reluctant House Democrats, led by minority leader Richard Gephardt of Missouri, who fear any new trade deals would leave American jobs more vulnerable to foreign competition.

Under fast track, Congress gives up its right to amend trade agreements and can vote only for or against them. Clinton wants the authority to expand the North American Free Trade Agreement to include Chile, and to negotiate market-opening deals in Latin America and Asia. The House vote on fast-track, scheduled for Friday, is expected to be much closer than the 69-31 margin in a Senate test vote Tuesday.

Looking ahead to the House vote, Clinton said, "I look forward to the same sort of determined Congressional leadership that has borne fruit today. I call upon all members of the House, without regard to party, to make the choice they know is the right one for America when they vote on Friday." White House spokesman Mike McCurry said the Clinton administration also was discussing issues, such as conduct of the
2000 census, of concern to the House Republican leadership.

Republicans are expected to supply most of the votes in favor of fast track authority, but Republican leaders have said at least 70 Democratic votes were needed."We have a number of areas that we are looking into," McCurry said. "We recognize that it's a process of give and take when you've got a Republican Congress and a Democratic president," he

Referring to the census issue, where Republicans have opposed plans to correct for an undercounting of homeless persons and immigrants by using statistical sampling to complement a head count of citizens, McCurry said the administration was seeking a way to bridge the differences that addressed the concerns of both sides.

Spud Master
(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:11 - ID#273112)
@offf to the labs - goodnight
Silverite - ( Doffing my fedora ) I step aside. grin.

Shek - Agree - the IRS will *NEVER* complete their putative year 2000 upgrade of that byzantine mess of 60s, 70s, 80s and 1990s software. It's purely a feel-good, CYA effort by IRS IS managers. We will miraculously have a flat tax or National Sale Tax as you say by 1999. Personal, given the unbridled greed of politicians and their sycophantic bureacrats, it'll be a National Sales Tax that goes through the roof.

Toughtguy - Yep. The Dow top is in at 8257. All that is wanting now is the "burn" of mom&pop, and the yuppies. When the Japanese begin selling their US Treasuries openly ( I believe they are selling them now as quietly as they can, unlike the Swiss, eh, who shout it out from the rooftops ) the Fed must have lots of US investors out of the Dow with ready cash to suck up repatriated worthless Treasury notes. Problem is, who then will finance NEW Federal debts????

Allen - Oh yes, I quite agree. The Fed & crew must be scared silly watching gold being sucked up from the COMEX wharehouses, their new injections of gold not even lasting a day. Very close to the end.

Typically, when a corrupt government & central bank get forced up against the wall, they engineer a crisis to divert public attention from lynching trees. I expect the laughable Iraq situation will be forced to war no matter what. Don't send your children to die in a foriegn land for the Coward in Washington & his lacky bankers.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:13 - ID#347457)
@LGB and his posting
LGB, we may agree on few things but I think it's for different reasons. You believe that US paper market will keep going up due to a strong economy, fundamentals, etc., I believe that US markets are de-coupled from real economy performance and keep going up due to investors belief that everything is fine. Market growth has nothing to do anymore with economy performance. AG and our fearless leader play the game with the economy ( and the game so far goes their way ) but by doing that, instead of letting market run their own course, they may be setting up market conditions they wont be able to control when it turns south. They may call it "new era" I just think its a shortsighted game for a benefit of few who are in power at this time. You bought into it, you profit from it ( just like many others on this site do ) but I think that you do not fully understand what mat happen when things go wrong. Yes, Japan might have not been a factor if the market ran its own course but due to the approach taken to control ( if you prefer call it manipulation ) this growth, the impact will be much different ( worse ) when Japan starts to pull out of the US bond market. This is also part of the "new era". We cant have it both ways.

This is the main reason I try to stay out of US markets. I cant predict when the "bad things" happen and it make me uncomfortable in my strategy. You play it but I believe that you may play it on false premise ( judging from your posts )
BTW, I for one dont mind your posting ( though I would not mind if you cut down on number of your posts ) . However, mind that this is a site for gold investors and analysts. Gold has been in a bear market for a while and many people on this site dont feel good about it. You dont kick a man when he is laying on a floor!! It wont ever make you too many friends.

Take care - Miro

Mike Sheller
(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:13 - ID#347447)
home sweet
TED: Hi Ted...never get tired of that great view! In my neck of the woods that house and property ( the water location, location, location ) would be around a million. Sell it wherever you care to, far as I'm concerned. This is as good a place as any. We're all here to buy and sell...opinions, ideas, investments. What can be more innocent, and comforting, than a home? Do I hear 185?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:17 - ID#162148)
@spoos pit
The Late action in the SP7Z was very bearish. We got the early selloff this a.m. that I expected. Then we rallied steadily to barely take out Friday's high, where we collapsed after the NYSE closed. I shorted the failure at the high at 3:20 and covered MOC. The action after 4pm caused me to re-enter short as soon as globex opened ( 941.00 ) . I dont know when or if we will make new highs. I dont know when we will take out the Oct lows. I leave that to the prophets and seers. I do feel however that we will go considerably lower here if the first rally in the morning does not succeed in closing the gap and we do not see new highs in the early afternoon. I dont normally carry a position overnite, so my concern here is apparent.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:18 - ID#206358)
Maybe u are right!Think that the spetculators still are around.Hong kong should still underpressured.The stocks,currencies are hammered down today morning....big dropped!The thai pm seat still unstable, thai peoples looked desperated,will draged and draged and draged........SINKING DEATH SAND!!!not sure the policies imf run prooved to be efficient?! RAINBOW OR ELLA....let see!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:19 - ID#162148)
Should be YESTERDAY'S high----Not Friday's high.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:21 - ID#31868)
Spud Master: Ah, the redistribution of wealth, the flat tax. If you think about it, this could be one of the worst things to ever happen. Some geek in Washington keeping track of every little move we make, every little teeny, tiny purchase. Maybe even the bubble in the bath tax.

Personally I think the US Government as we know it will not exist in several years. And as far as I am concerned. Good ridance.

The way I look at it we are all customers, and their service stinks.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:21 - ID#194311)
100 year storm...don't come along that often

Deadly Storm Rakes Vietnam
At least 132 people were killed and up to 4,000, most of them
fishermen, were missing after Typhoon Linda lashed Vietnam's
southern coast. Some 1,500 fishing boats have disappeared.
Thousands were left homeless by Linda, which destroyed
buildings, roads, bridges and dikes Sunday before heading west
to the southern coast of Thailand. Linda is being described as
the most severe storm to hit Vietnam in more than 100 years. In
Thailand, two deaths were reported and rubber and coffee
plantations were devastated.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:29 - ID#338452)

Hey Ted. Sold me too....
Only problem though is that all the neighbours are just like WW eh!
Ah well, can't have paradise and peace can you !!!


(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:29 - ID#7568)

Having spent many years developing system, managing groups of programmers developing systems, being called upon to salvage messes of significant magnitude, this one looks like a no brainer. These guys are Toast ( with a capital T ) . This is an extraordinary document.

In light of this mess which is no doubt completely unfixable, we will see Steve Forbes' dream come true. We are in the very near future going to have the flat tax which you can fill out the whole shebang on a postcard.
This will be the only way out.

This is actually massively bullish for the U.S. economy. Could be time to get very short H&R Block. Are they a publicly traded company? They could go to zero.

Thanks for the post. This is fabulous stuff.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:37 - ID#69191)
The PM charts look really weird...

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:37 - ID#20135)
Those Japanese can't seem to run a deficit with us can they. Guess this calls for another meeting with Rubin and the boys.

Tuesday November 4 7:09 PM EST

Japan surplus rose due to car exports,weak yen-MOF

TOKYO, Nov 5 ( Reuters ) - Japan's trade surplus rose in the first 20 days of October mainly due to good exports of cars and the weaker yen, a
Finance Ministry official told reporters on Wednesday.

The ministry said earlier that Japan's customs-cleared trade surplus rose 143.9 percent to 554.204 billion yen in the 20-day period compared with the
same period a year earlier.

The figure compared with a revised surplus of 227.201 billion yen in the same period last year.

Free on board ( FOB ) exports rose 16.6 percent to 2.77 trillion yen from a year earlier, while cost, insurance and freight ( CIF ) imports rose 3.2 percent
to 2.21 trillion yen.

Although imports of crude oil and semiconductors rose, imports of cars and clothing were sluggish, the official said.

A rise in exports to Asia was slow compared with those to other regions, possibly due to recent turmoil in Asian currencies, he said.

The official added that the ministry used an exchange rate of 121.18 yen to the dollar in calculating data for the period, compared with 110.59 yen in the
same period last year.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:38 - ID#335190)
Canada @ No Gold sales
Canada sells no gold in October

OTTAWA, Nov 4 ( Reuters ) -- Canada sold no gold in October, the Finance Department said on Tuesday. Its holdings remained at 3.1 million ounces as of October 31, the department said.

The Canadian government has a policy of gradually selling off its gold reserves and replacing them with interest-bearing assets.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:38 - ID#263259)
@Land of the Free
Tolerant1: In regards to your thoughts on the flat tax, IMHO that is not the most probable tax mistake the US government could make. I think that Herr Klinton's 40% energy tax ( under the guise of global warming relief ) will be the most inflationary action since the Arab oil embargo of 2 decades ago. But in the intervening time Americans have gotten a LOT meaner. One already hears rumblings of a planned general transportation strike by farmers, truckers, airlines and dockworkers. This is particularly ominous, considering that these groups are planning this before it is even voted in congress. Thankfully, the Republican congressional majority will not be likely to ratify the treaty. I hope that it never sees the light of day, but if it does, that's going to be one of those rare opportunities when PM's will nearly certainly double in price.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:40 - ID#20135)
These guys are everywhere. Is there anyone they haven't loan money to?

Tuesday November 4 7:02 PM EST

IMF technical team arrives in Argentine this week

BUENOS AIRES, Nov 4 ( Reuters ) - A technical team from the International Monetary Fund will arrive in Argentina this week to analyze the country's
fiscal accounts and touch up final details of a loan deal, the Economy Ministry said Tuesday.

The ministry said in a statement the first members of the team, including Teresa Ter Minassian, Jeffrey Franks and Paul Gruenwald, arrive on

The rest, Thomas Reichmann, Phillip Gerson and Luis Catao, arrive on Thursday.

Argentina's government has said it has reached agreement with the IMF on an Extended Fund Facility ( EFF ) agreement to start at the beginning of next
year when the current stand-by loan agreement with the organization expires. Just a few details remain to be concluded.

The EFF is anticipated to be signed after this week's visit and include $3.0 billion worth of funds which would be made available to the country if need
be over the three-year duration of the agreement.

The deal is also expected to include a promise by the government to complete the passage of labor market reforms by June 1998.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:40 - ID#7568)

Hope this turns out to be the biggest winner you've ever had.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:44 - ID#233379)
Spud Master: If you will, please send your E-mail address to the above.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:44 - ID#2082)
Mr. SpudSter the Golden Looney
Your 14:16. Now THAT's funny. I love a good laugh and please don't ever put me in the same sentence as LGBoob again. He and I read different to speak

you still have to work on that spelling thing. You spelled apology wrong twice. Shame on you.

Go gold!!!! Plunge to the Depths!!! protect my plunger

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:45 - ID#20135)
For the Yr2000 folks.

Tuesday November 4 3:58 PM EST

Europe's governments face millennium chaos-report

By Neil Winton, Science and Technology Correspondent

CANNES, France, Nov 4 ( Reuters ) - European governments are failing to address the millennium computer bomb problem and more than 40 per cent
of authorities which rely on information technology are likely to fall down on their responsibilities, a report published on Tuesday said.

The report, from U.S. high technology consultancy Gartner Group said governments must make cabinet level appointments to give the problem its
proper priority, but was pessimistic enough would be done.

``More than 40 per cent of European public sector information organisations will be unable to deliver operational stability in their mission critical
activities,'' the report said.

Among the reports conclusions were -

Governments will be forced to defer or cancel projects to free funds to pay for Year 2000 work.
Emergency use of vouchers will be needed to replace electronic fund transfers for social security and pension payments.
Public sector unions may strike because of extra payments that may be needed to recruit computer staff.
International trade will be disrupted because of customs systems failures.

The report didn't rate the performances of individual governments.

``Cabinet level appointments would convince us that it was being taken serously, but we see little evidence of this,'' according to Gartner analyst Andy

Computers are exposed to a problem that sounds almost too trivial to be true. In the 1970s and 1980s, computer programmers saved what was then
valuable space by abbreviating years to two digits - like 97 or 85 - knowing that this would cause mayhem in 2000. Computers would be unable to
make sense of a four digit number and would crash or start churning out erroneous data.

But because of the fast moving nature of the world of information technology, there was a widely held belief that this problem would cease to exist years
before 2000 dawned.

This assumption was false, and many computer users

around the world will find their systems crashing as the millennium dawns.

Gartner's Kyte told a press conference called to launch the report that many companies in the private sector are making progess towards defusing the
millennium bomb. But public bodies are being hamstrung by lack of flexibility. Budgets have to be scrutinised by councillors or parliamentarians before
they can be changed.

``You would think that politicians would be putting this on the agenda, but you'd be wrong. Nobody in Europe is doing anything, the whole problem has
fallen through the cracks,'' said Kyte.

Gartner's report said more progress was being made in the U.S, where congressional bodies had the power to demand quarterly progress reports.

But Europe faces chaos.

``Normal channels are not working. Anyone who says this is not a crisis, doesn't understand the problem,'' Kyte said.

Neil Winton 44 171 542 7975

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:48 - ID#287279)
from GN's Site "A February 7, 1997, report by the Office of Management and Budget describes what the government is facing, and therefore what every computer- based system is facing. The OMB report does not adopt apocalyptic language. Nevertheless, what it describes, if multipled across every computer-based organization, is nothing short of apocalyptic. Read just one sentence.
"Unless they are fixed or replaced, they will fail at the turn of the century in one of three ways: they will reject legitimate entries, or they will compute erroneous results, or they will simply not run" ( p. 1 ) .
Clear, isn't it? Inescapably clear. Anyone who says that warning of a
worldwide disaster as a result of this problem is "a lot of hype" or
"way overblown" needs to come to grips with this sentence.
Add to this the statement in the February, 1977, report by the
General Accounting Office in its report, "Year 2000 Computing
Crisis: An Assessment Guide": "Every federal agency is at risk of
widespread systems failures" ( p. 1 ) .

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:52 - ID#335190)
MAI = Fast Track @ Canada Elected Official, on the USofA Fast Track Team
November 4, 1997
Trade minister defends investment treaty
OTTAWA ( CP ) - An international treaty on investment will not pose a threat to Canadian sovereignty, Trade Minister Sergio Marchi said Tuesday.

Speaking to the standing committee on international trade, Marchi said the government will only sign a deal that serves Canada's national interests.

"As in NAFTA, Canada will not accept any general commitment to freeze or phase-out restrictions on foreign investment," he said. "Canada will retain the flexibility to carry out public policy in core areas of national interest."

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development is currently negotiating the agreement, known as the multilateral agreement on investment, or MAI. It is expected to be finalized in April.

The treaty would set global standards for foreign investment, and critics
fear it will eliminate some of Canada's autonomy in areas such as environmental protection and labor standards.

Marchi said the provinces are being consulted on those issues.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:53 - ID#287279)

This report has no date on it. It is posted on the Securities Industry
Association's Web side.
Testifying last week before the National Commission on Restructuring the Internal Revenue Service ( IRS ) , IRS Associate Commissioner Arthur Gross called his agency's Y2K conversion task "massive," an undertaking which will span 102 million lines of code and almost 50,000 applications. Gross said failure to take corrective action on date-based fields could "result in the generation of millions of erroneous tax notices, refunds, bills, interest calculations, taxpayer account adjustments, accouting transactions and financial reporting errors."

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:57 - ID#364147)
@ Kiwi
Kiwi:415.33 OZ's should do it ( we're talkin gold ain't we?? ) Mike Sheller: Can ya believe that price?? Front: Ya can't have everthing,can ya?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 21:58 - ID#233379)
oldman: Thanks for your views. Always appreciated! At least from THIS end of the court!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:00 - ID#57232)
@Home: El Nino and SE Asia currency problems! -- Jin?
All, and Jin: I wonder if we are missing the forrest for the trees! There are two things that have hit SE Asia this year -- El Nino and currency collapses! Now -- a 100 year record storm hits Vietnam!
Just think about the severe droughts that have hit that area -- Mass famines in North Korea, fires, droughts and severe air pollution in Indonesia, as well as other neighboring countries. I think China and Russia adversely affected as well. We should not ignore the fact that environmental phenomena in this part of the world may have put a major extra stress in the economic and financial systems, making them more likely to falter. Next year may be worse before it gets better -- Jin if I am right you may need to find shelter for another year.
I believe South America has also been affected, but I don't know how much. So far, North America, Europe, Africa and the Middle East seem relatively unaffected. I think we should learn as much as we can about "the worst El Nino in 150 years". We may be thinking too narrowly about our focus on gold and commodity prices, and how other "parts of the world won't be affected".
One half of the problem may be right infront of our noses! There is no question that unfavorable weather has adverse economic consequences.

Jin -- You probablly know more than the rest of us -- does this make sense to you? Did the bad weather come before the currency problems -- could it be more important than most of us would believe?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:00 - ID#7568)

By their own estimate they are talking 50,000 applications and they are allocating 615 full time programmers. That's more than 800 applications per programmer, or better than 1 per day. Insanity.

It is becoming clear how they managed to blow $4 billion on their last attempt at a software overhaul. These people are truly and completely sunk. What is most scary about the whole thing is they probably think its all going to work out just ducky.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:01 - ID#255151)

D.A.--My thinking is a sudden introduction of a flat tax might be a shock to the system. There would certainly be winners and losers. No more deductions, write offs etc. However, there simply is no other option. Can't see how we avoid an economic disruption of some sort between now and Jan. 1999.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:01 - ID#347457)
@don't you write IRS off
Folks, I would be the last one to say that IRS dont have a significant Y2K problem, however, dont you write IRS off ( yet ) . Yes, our tax code is due for overhaul and Y2K can contribute to speed this process.
However, remember that:
- Most tax collection is based on current year income and while it could require significant Y2K changes, the changes may be manageable
- Remember that most people comply with tax code and will send the "money owed" to IRS
- Remember that many tax laws are already not "checked" and enforced ( except when you are in for audit )
- Most Y2K problems are related to enforcement of multiyear rules and IRS audits
- Remember that all your tax return info is entered, scanned, and kept on file for many years to come
- You may be called for audit a few years down the road when the system is ready to deal with it
- Remember that this yer changes to a tax law with all "if before this apply this rule else apply different rule" may be as difficult to implement as Y2K changes ( yet nobody brings that point up ) and the IRS wont break down because of that .
- Remember that the new law shifts a burden of proof from a taxpayer to IRS, yet nobody think that IRS wont be able to collect most of the money "due", and believe me sometimes they would have a difficult time!

I can continue on and on. Yes, IRS has a problem but dont you underestimate its capability. Thinking that because of Y2K IRS will break down and wont be able to collect "income due" tells me that there is a bit of misunderstanding of Y2K problem. ( so more that there is a significant tendency to "Ill pay what I owe in the US population"

take care - Miro "know a little how it works with IRS computers"

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:01 - ID#202318)
@canadian sellout
Here we go....
Soon we won't have to worry about them anymore...

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:02 - ID#307360)

I respect and enjoy your postings and would appreciate your comment on the following short form logic ( I think I know what you will say! ) .

Given projections for weaker world economic growth and increasing deflationary pressures due to overinvestment corporate profits are going to be squeezed big time at a time of unprecidented price levels in the stock markert . This will utimately lead to one mother of a bear market in equities.

Bond yields are continuing to fall even though international central bankers are already net sellers of US treasuries. Real yields are fair to high given historical norms. Why does it not make sense to buy long treasuries in this slowing and deflationary environment and wait for "4% by 2000"?

ie: it is very hard not to be a bond bull in this environment with of course a percentage of undervalued PM stocks and S&P 500 puts.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:03 - ID#286199)
Hong Kong down a couple hundred... Nikkei down 133..... Ted's real estate deal looks pretty good. I'm glad I bought gold last week. Has anyone thought of setting up a Ritalin fund for the kids?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:03 - ID#7568)

If you're out there it looks like our little gold company just swallowed up a big ole mine.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:04 - ID#335190)
Early Warning @ Currency (APEC Group)
November 4, 1997
Business wants early warning system against currency crisis

OTTAWA ( CP ) - A business advisory group to the Asia Pacific countries wants an early warning system to prevent another currency crisis in the
Currency instability threatens to impede capital markets and unwind the
process of trade liberalization among the 18 members of the Asia Pacific
Economic Co-operation group.

In addition, currency instability in one APEC country affects all countries in the group.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:05 - ID#287279)
very fresh
Federal Reserve computers will be OK in 2000-Kelley

By Aaron Pressman

...Fed systems are being renovated to guarantee they will process dates correctly after Dec. 31, 1999, Kelley told the House Banking Committee.
"The Federal Reserve is giving year 2000 its highest priority, commensurate with our goal of maintaining the stability of the nation's financial markets and payments systems, preserving public confidence and supporting reliable government operations,'' he said.
...He said, however, that the Fed still faces major challenges, such as managing complex repair projects and finding enough qualified programmers to make the changes.
...Some experts say the problem could spark severe economic disruption if institutions such as banks, utilities and hospitals failed to convert computers in time. Kelley said the Fed was working closely with U.S. banking companies and central banks around the world to prepare for the millennium bug.
``We will have our contingency plans in place,'' Kelley said. ``We will be ready to lend and able to lend if that is what's required.''

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:13 - ID#287279)
SEC's Levitt says Year 2000 issues top priority

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:15 - ID#57232)
@Home -- seeing the future dimly --
Oldman: Please keep us up-to-date on your impressions of the market. We need info from the day traders, as well as the intermediate and long term investors, because I think we all agree this investment period is fraught with uncertainty. Collectively input from the short term and long term posters may benefit us all, despite our different priorities!

All: Those of you who are new at this site -- please remember that you must make your own decisions -- don't take the advice of others unless you have enough experience to know what you are doing. As several posters have said in the last few days, there are many styles of investing represented here from daily to yearly, and you have to choose what is good for you -- that may take years of experience. You can't blame the "experts" if you fail -- just yourself.

That is why any heckling at this site is a complete waste of time for all of us, even for the hecklers.

Bill Buckler
(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:18 - ID#257234)
Allen ( 17:37 ) Best post I've seen on Kitco for a while!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:22 - ID#57232)
@Home - Nick(@Aussie)& goodnight all
Almost forgot! I did get your post from 9:58 this AM about the markets still being in lock step -- this with Oldman's comments today means that we must be alert for a dramatic turn in the market. Perhaps the end of month baby boomer mutual fund investment surge is over for now -- worrisome thought. Any life left in our upturn?

Goodnight everyone!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:22 - ID#263234)


(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:34 - ID#7568)

Unless you have ever struggled through reams of archaic undocumented software in an effort to fix anything, I don't think you could understand the difficulty in getting it done. When I first started looking into the Y2k stuff I was a bit skeptical about the difficulty in getting it fixed. I looked at a lot of systems that I had personally been involved with over the years and tried to contemplate what it would take to fix the ones that might be in error. I concluded based upon this limited sample set that the problem was probably tractable. My problem in assessing the problem is that all of the green field development efforts in which I had been involved, were done to some set of what might pass for engineering standards.

Subsequent reading has turned me around 180 degrees. Never in my wildest dreams could I imagine the amount of code out there which is 20 years old and created with no standards whatsoever. This code is for all intents and purposes completely unfixable. The only solution is to throw it away and start all over again.

Unfortunately, bold strokes such as these are never taken by management that is techinically undereducated. Allow me to illustrate.

About 10 years ago I was doing consulting work for Coopers & Lybrand. They sent me off to an accounting client of theirs which was a medium size business in the film processing industry. My task was to review an extensive software system ( few hundred thousand dollars ) that had been unsuccessfully developed by a consortium headed up by Unisys. After about three days of examining what had been created and the minimal documentation to go along with it, I declared that the most cost effective method for dealing with the problem would be to scrap the whole thing and start again. Needless to say this was a very unpopular viewpoint with both the client, and Unisys management who maintained that the system could be salvaged. I was under great pressure from the C&L partner heading the project to change my advice and go along with the party line. Since I was merely a consultant to C&L and my livelyhood did depend upon having them as a client it was easy for me to tell them to get lost. Being a bit younger and a little brasher at the time I remember in my departure offering to wager the C&L partner my consulting fee that project would never be completed. In the smartest move he made with regards to the project he declined. Needless to say the system never was completed.

After scanning the document that Shek has posted and infering the kinds of problems that must be inherent in their systems, it is inconceivable that they will be able to fix them, short of scrapping the whole works and starting again. The problem, is that having chosen the fix path, when they finally realize that the clock is going to run down they will have no options. If I were running the project I would have two entirely separate efforts going. The first would be an attempt to fix what is there in the prayer that it might get cobbled together in time. The second would be to have a new system being developed simultaneously so there might be some acceptable fall back position should the clock tick too fast.

If this is the state of things here in the most computer advanced society in the world ( by a long shot ) . The rest of the planet is going to come to a complete halt.

The flight to tangible assets in the run up to this date could be just awesome. Regardless of the outcome, the fear which will be generated will drive people to the bank and then to the bullion dealer. Who the hell is going to bet everything they have that 'its going to be just fine' when one could just switch into physical while the damn thing is plugged in. The last few weeks of 1999 could see the most awesome rally in the metals that the world has ever known.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:38 - ID#426220)
LAST week we witnessed the market making ALL-TIME RECORDS: greatest one-day DOW point loss in history on Monday, followed by the greatest one-day DOW point gain in history on Tuesday. It's my considered opinion that internal dynamics of the market do NOT have the required strength to cause such whipsaw action... there must be an external force exerting inordinate pressures. I may be too old-fashion, but I thought market manipulation was illegal - regardless who the culprit might be... or is it that some are above the LAW?! We received via email visual evidence there is indeed blatant and obscene stock market manaipulation. Here is the report with charts - comments and observations invited:

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:39 - ID#31868)
Allen: I was just rummaging through some posts and came across your DO YOU HAVE YOUR GOLD, post.

One method of many, e-gold. Now, of course you have to like the system and all. I do, I am a customer. BUT, my point here is that you can wire your money in. See your gold, platinum, silver, palladium right on screen and voila' instant metal.

Now, if you want to take delivery for what ever reason. Simply post your redemption and I believe it will leave within 24 hours and be delivered right to your door or the door of your choice.

People have money in a bank and think nothing of it. So to me having gold in a money system is no problem for me. But that's me. Anyway, I just mentioned it as this may offer another avenue for folks.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:42 - ID#286199)
D.A. - Great post. My company is spending thousands of dollars to try to salvage some legacy applications. We will be ready, but I fear that many companies with whom we do business won't. I like your comment about the coming flight to hard assets prior to the new millenium. Somebody should write a book.

Spud Master
(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:49 - ID#288154)
Be realistic
Miro, I mean no disrespect, but I do archeosoftware engineering all day, everyday for a living. I maintain systems that are fairly well documented - problem is the documents were never updated. They no longer are valid design documents. Your stating that the IRS has a grip on their Year 2000 problem is naieve. Just the thought of updating their multifarious database data models ( I assume they do have data models? ) is enough to make you want to put a gun in your mouth, squeezing off the entire clip, reload and doing it again.The only realistic chance they have to totally write the existing mess off and start over in a clean room with a small team of designers. Of course, they've already tried this with a larrge team and so badly efffed the effort up that Congress had to intervene. When you've the American slave populace to loot for your management screw-ups, you can play your catchup games until 2000. But I do agree with one thing: the IRS probably could care less about their ( our ) software - they'll just bill anyway.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 22:50 - ID#162148)
jtf: Dont read too much into my post, as I am a very short term trader, seldom holding overnite. I have been out of equity investments for almost 9 months, but I can not say that we are in a bear market. Today was a lot like 4/8/97 to me, and all that led to was a washout 2 days later and a huge bull move. My long term indicator---largely based on monetary/i-rate data---is still positive. Has been since early May. If this is a bear, its a DEFLATIONARY bear. Since we aint had one of those in almost 3/4 of a century, I aint gonna call it til its clearly here. My indicator has gone negative several times and had only a 5-10% correction follow, as it did early this year. But we havent had a bear market in the post-war period with it positive. The 13%+ selloff we just had was the biggest dip with it positive. So, IMO, if this IS a bear, its gonna be a particularly nasty one. Cash will be king for at least a couple of years.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:00 - ID#233379)
oldman: I hope you don't mean cash in the sense of the Rupiah of late.

Spud Master
(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:02 - ID#288154)
For Tolerant1
Tolerant - don't get me wrong. I repeated the Flat Tax/national sales tax only because I know those venal, corrupt, nefarious, sycophantic, excrable,pefideous Washington D.C. parasites will go for as much money as they can. The ONLY fair tax is a simple fixed citizen tax - $500 a person a year. Doesn't matter whether you're poor as dirt or rich as Ted Kennedy - we are all American citizens and all entitled to exactly the same government services. To say that one person must pay more or less depending on their income is just discrimination. ( Emergency room, please see WW, he's turning purple ) . This would also have the nice effect of throttling the hell out of the Federal Government's bestial lust for tax dollars to pay for their high priced prostitues, cocaine habits and luxurious life-styles. But let us be realistic: we shall end in the same manner as the Roman Empire. A worthless currency, a morally bankrupt people, a ragged-out infrastructure and barbarians looting the place.DISRESPECT ALL POLITICIANS. THEY ARE AMERICA'S ONLY NATIVE CRIMINAL CLASS.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:02 - ID#403159)
@big bucks
ALLEN USA. This is going to be brief and short due to time. Let me explain, our business is not an exact science. Don't forget trillions of dollars are now floating around the globe. Moving markets requires more work than say 10 years ago and of late even that much worse. So to answer your question DOW 4000 ( approx. ) will be reached for a very brief moment in 1999 and will exercise a swift parabolic move back over 7000 never to be seen again. At that point gold will completely deflate and collapse leaving it's followers broke. Now for the immediate future. Equities are going on to new highs by 11/11/97, then we could see a large scale sell off mid next week only after we have taken out the short sellers. So a large move up and then free fall if we decide to take it that far. We have our eyes focused on the Nikkei 225. If it breaks 15000 our market will free fall. Remember, this forecast is a not cast in stone. However, this should be a close destination. Let me remind you it is delicate and I will try to stay in touch. Thats all for now.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:02 - ID#30116)
@All software weinies...:-)
I'm mostly a hardware type. I've done some of software stuff to. I've yet to meet a C/C++, Pascal, or VB programmer who does not claim to 'understand' his own or someone elses code. Problem is, give'em a beer and a week to forget,

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:02 - ID#403159)
@big bucks
ALLEN USA. This is going to be brief and short due to time. Let me explain, our business is not an exact science. Don't forget trillions of dollars are now floating around the globe. Moving markets requires more work than say 10 ye

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:03 - ID#30116)
@All software weinies...:-)
I'm mostly a hardware type. I've done some of software stuff too. I've yet to meet a C/C++, Pascal, or VB programmer who does not claim to 'understand' his own or someone elses code. Problem is, give'em a beer and a week to forget, and they'll deny that they ever wrote THAT code! :- ) )

C/C++ is particularly nasty in this regard. A mid-level language in which everyone feels that the use of comment statements is not 'manly' :- ) )

But damn if they don't try to do everything in one line of cryptic code, or one huge class............

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:06 - ID#25588)
D.A. - Looks as if we've weathered the strom today.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:08 - ID#347457)
@DA and Y2K
DA: believe me I understand what you are saying. I've been in software business for some 28 years. Developing large systems, leading commercial software vendor operation, and lately assessing and "re-engineering" a lot of gov. systems. It just happened that I am too close to Washington D.C. and deal with large agencies systems for many years. Without trying to say too much, I work on Y2K issue for the last few years. As a matter of fact, it's 11 pm here and I am still at work. I know and deal with many people behind the documents cited in recent posts, know how to read them ( and my thinking went into some of them ) . I've been involved in assessment of some agencies, and believe me, you don't have to remind me in what shape some of these systems are :- (
However, that does not change my opinion. Computer based society will have a hard time but won't totally disintegrate.
Financial markets? Watch out for Y2K.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:09 - ID#346256)
D.A., that was one of the best posts I have read to date on Y2K.
I have read at great length on this subject, and the majority of
people cannot even began to comprehend the catastrophe, disaster,
and misery we all will soon face.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:10 - ID#30116)
@Give me a break!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:10 - ID#310407)
@ Miro, Spud, Silverite, Mooney, et al
Miro and Bryson, thanks for your posts. I'm glad you understand where I'm coming from. Emotionally I like Gold as an investment and I know it's day will come. Fortunatley for my bank account, I don't invest based on my emotions. Judging from the enormous outpouring of wrath re my posts, your comments are also appropriate re kicking a dog while he's down. However, in all honesty, a review of my posts vs, others here, tells me I'm at least as "on topic" as the majority.

Spud, Silverite, Mooney, et al. I am constantly amazed that so many people can spew so much venomous "hate speech" my way, when they are trying to make the point that my posts are too abrasive! read your own posts for investive and pul the lof out of your own eye before pulling the speck out of mine eh? Count your pejorative adjectives and add em up.

Also Spud, how you get me as a "rascist" from my posts is beyond me. It's quite obvious my posts are an attack of the "Jew Banker" rascist, anti semite conspiracy GARBAGE that's being posted on this site. The very same crap that was around in Hitler's day to justofy the Holocaust. You may like the White Sheet crowd, I find it disgusting and repulsive in the worst way.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:11 - ID#31868)
Spud Master: Well said.

Spud Master
(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:11 - ID#288154)
You are wrong HeavyHit. The Dow has seen its high of 8,257. The game is over. The long burn is already playing. The Dow begins its parbolic dive back into the noise. Lead the sheep on. The Butcher with the sharpest knife has the warmest smile, HeavyHiterr.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:15 - ID#347457)
@Spud Master and IRS
Wow, Spud Master. I think it's too late for me so I am not getting my message out clearly. I did not want to imply that IRS has a good grip on their problem. I am trying to say that this damn tax system will collect money even if their computers don't work!! Y2K is not all about software, it's about business process and it may, just may, continue ( and collect money ) even if the damn computers don't work

Spud Master
(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:16 - ID#288154)
more LGB poison ...
LGB, I urged you to stop calling posters here racist and anti-semite. You are guilty as charged by your own word. Be a man and admit to your own word. As for me being a racist ... chuckle ... my hispanic wife would disagree, as would my Vietnamese coworker, and African-American engineering chief. But, please, continue to poison the well with your racist & anti-semite acusations. The world will judge you accordingly.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:18 - ID#30116)
Let me get this straight. The Dow loses more than 50%, and from this level, makes new highs within a year? Lets see. First we destroy $4+ Trillion dollars, and then we get the money to reinvest from ???? to drive the stock markets to new highs? :- ) ) :- ) )

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:21 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:23 - ID#233379)
LGB: ComeON! GET IN MY FACE! I AM PISSED!!! TAKE YOUR DISRUPTIVE CRAP ELSEWHERES!!! Let those who want to continue to hear know the place. THAT IS ALL!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:24 - ID#255151)

Panda--Yep. I can't quite see HeavyHitter's scenario. The collapse in gold implies that there will be a big shift of faith toward paper. Can't see it.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:25 - ID#364147)
@ Panda
Panda: Ya got to stop trying to be so just might make sense!...Good night all!!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:25 - ID#30116)
Spud Master -- Save your breath! It's pointless to argue.

LGB -- If you're so good trading, post your trades. Give time/date of entry, size of trade, entry price and then tell us the exit price and date/time. Of course ipso facto is no good. Tell us before you do the trade.

Spud Meister
(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:30 - ID#288154)
g'night all...
Miro - sorry. I agree with your last post.

Eric Bartell - oh gosh. ( blushing ) if I had a 1/4 ounce Maple Leaf for every spelling error I make here... tonight's whopper is 'pefideous'. For the record: perfideous. Tantus scire...

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:30 - ID#31868)
Spud Master: I am not sure where Heavy Hitter is coming from. In my short time on the planet I have been around many wealthy and powerful individuals of all different nationalities and in different countries.

To date I never heard big money talk in the manner in which Heavy Hitter does. Money spends, it doesn't talk.

In addition, go to gold eagle site and read the fella, ah, Money Systems after 2003 I think is the new title. Read the last entry from that fellow. HH and alot of other people here seem to parrot, or try to, what is in that previous posting.

Japan, the rest of Asia, South America, especially Brazil. This market clanks.

I stick to my previous sentiments. $400.00 mid Dec or earlier. Dow 5000 by mid Dec or earlier. But I have my clown nose on, at least I realize that.

Have a good evening or morning as it may be. I'm Tequila Toast.

Na Hearadh
(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:34 - ID#352180)
The bottom's in @ $310
All, Tried to look at postings from Oct. 24-25 so as not to be redundant, but they don't come up....Anyway,

In the November 11, 1997 edition of Numismatic News a story on pg. 4 details that the RCM is guaranteeing the value of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police 1 oz. .9999 fine gold coin at $310.00 through 1/1/2000.

The initial series is limited to 30,000 coins with future mintages dependent on demand, according to the RCM. More details?? Contact the RCM Communications Advisor, Pierre Morin at ( 613 ) 993-9999.

Any word on this before? Sorry, if it's a repeat.

The Gael

Spud Acolyte
(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:36 - ID#288154)
Recte, habet!
tolerant1 - of course - the proof that HeavyH is a fraud is his/her simple presence here: A Soros would not broadcast his intent. It's stupid. A paid disinformer, however... how desperate they are to convince people not to consider protecting their wealth from paper promises.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:36 - ID#30116)
Ted -- It's a long standing defect that I have. :- )

Server is getting real slow, so I'll say good night. Good night all!

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:37 - ID#347457)
@ Heavy Hitter and good night you all
Heavy hitter, yeah, I see one more dream scenario. Stocks go down to 4000, gold completely deflated, everybody loose money, where in heck is money coming from to shoot the market up to the new height?! You must be keeping it all under your mattress.

Good night you all - I am outa here

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:39 - ID#403159)
@big bucks
If not new highs near new highs. A market collapse is caused by conventional wisdom that like 87 this is a buying opportunity. Only can the opposite be true. Good night.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:40 - ID#338297)
fight, fight Another and Heavy Hitter are having a fight. Fight, Fight Another and heavy Hitter are having a fight.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:40 - ID#93199)
tolerant1 ( @Tequilaville )

One method of many, e-gold. Now, of course you have to like the system and all. I do, I am a customer. .....

I like the E-gold notion, but can you put SERIOUS money
into it and feel comfortable?

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:40 - ID#233379)
Spud Master: Now there's a concept; fairness in taxation re: your 23:02! A reason why I'd like your E-mail address, if you will.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:41 - ID#403159)
@big bucks
If not new highs near new highs. A market collapse is caused by conventional wisdom that like 87 this is a buying opportunity. Only can the opposite be true. Good night.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:46 - ID#251213)
Heavy Hitter and Another are no more frauds than any one else that posts here. The whole reason those two posters get so much attention is that their posts feed the conspiracies that run wild on this site.

Another's posts are the best though. He at least ( sometimes ) gives partial reasons for his posts.

(Tue Nov 04 1997 23:53 - ID#217243)
As we have seen some previously listed examples, the
Y2K problem will affect many systems way before Y2K.
Many ordering systems will be affected, particularly
those that place orders up to 1 year out. Forecasting,
planning and budgeting systems will also be affected
even at this time. The problem has already started.