DA. Great post. I couldn't agree more. Management is terribly
undereducated technically and yet they boldly go down the
outsourcing route. They think consultants are going to fix
things. What a bunch of bull. Corporations have
succeed in churning and demoralizing what little permanent
staff they have left to such a point that no one wants
to bother or even knows how to fix old Y2K code.
So, dump it on consultants. I guess anything can get
fixed if the price is right?

D.A.& MIRO: Interesting that there is a Y2K discussion going on tonight. Yesterday's LA Times had a big front page article about Y2K that basicaly said, "Yeah, there is a lot of gloom 'n doom out there but essentially it is a solveable problem. All will be well in plenty of time. Not to worry..." If you're interested, the text is probably at the LA Times site but at the moment I don't have the URL. I'll post it if I find it.
D.A. How is the wife and little one. Long time no hear.

Auric KGB. -- I understand. I was a tad disappointed, on completion of my Certificate of Investment Analysis, that the qualification did not allow me to put C.I.A. after my name.Where's the discussion on Flat tax got to? we have a flat tax ( Goods & Services Tax ) GST that applies to *all* goods and services, except, well you know... It is most inequitous.

6-pack You are astounding! I truly appreciate your histories and find them uniformly incisive and relevant to our discussions. I expect they will be drawn together and published sometime? ( I should like to reserve a copy )

Mooney* 20:27 Too bad if the spoiled kids ruin the party eh? As has been said here, they'd've been bodily evicted from everywhere except perhaps dinner with Sawney Bean ( Come in Mike Sheller ) ..

Bart Is there somewhere else for the grown-ups to go in the meantime?

JTF
Updated swing chart.
If the market is to turn down at this point it will show on this indicator that there is a failure to break into an uptrend.
This will merely confirm the downtrend.

There was evidence within the markets last night of distribution.
This was being done in an orderly style, and on low volumes.
This is unusual within a market that is supposed to be accumulating for the current upleg.
That this is happening quietly on an upswing, leads me to think that the next down swing has the potential to be vicious.
This indicator is very fast, and can change very quickly.
For it to re-establish a new leg down and reach a lower level than before.
Points to a lot more turmoil to come.

I feel that this market is performing well, technically, in its new form of downtrend.
The retracements that we have seen are very healthy and the amount of denial seen, indicates that the bulls still feel like they have control.

I have seen many comments alluding to the fact that we cannot crash here at this point in time because too many people are aware of this
danger.
Many people try to use this contrarian stance, to see a future direction for the markets.
I feel that the lack of fear, ( except during the peak of last weeks wave )
and the general complacency within the markets, can be used as a contrary- contrary indicator.
Some have taken out insurance but the many, believe a bottom is in and that stocks will only rise back from here, as they have so many times in the past.
This next down move that is to come will shake the confidence of many.
That we have made a very strong down move and are about to follow it with another, will have many people questioning the validity of this bull.

First incredibility ( first wave down ) , then denial ( last wave up ) , then confusion ( next wave down ) , then chaos ( next wave continuing deeper ) , and finally panic ( capitulation ) .

One must remember that since we have established this bull run, all corrections were made up of a dip followed by a continuation of the uptrend.
This time it shall be a dip followed by another dip followed by another .... etc.
How many dips will it take to convince the masses that we have established a downtrend.
When the masses finally realize, that if they are to retain profits, they need to sell.
Then we will see the capitulation phase and the charts will look truly amazing.
I feel exactly the same about the 'precious' situation.

I am of the opinion that markets are made up only of peoples opinions.
Therefore they are purely physiological, and can be read as such.
IMHO

Panda
Where is the source of the comment that you made last night, regarding the English share market and its maximum of a 20% fall in one day.

Lurker
I can't validate the comments, but post them for the interesting perspective that they provide.
Just hoping that they will stimulate thoughts and comments.

Here is the story direct from the Royal Canadian Mint. One ounce gold coin guaranteed at 310 $US, until Jan. 1, 2000. http://www.rcmint.ca/en/news/value_gold_text.html

http://www.newswire.ca/releases/November1997/04/c0596.html

Very interesting RCM. How much do these cost at this time.

OK ! I surrender my sentimentality re Au. I give up. I parked 80 K in
BEARX 1 1/2 weeks ago. Au has let me down for the moment,I still have a
pile of it. Where does the Dow go now,how high? I am an optimist, but I think there are limits to analitical and emotional optimism. Please name your silver picks. What do you think of stagflation and natural resources? Thanks.

A.Goose: The article only said a higher premium but not how much. Am looking, but doubt the sites have had time to post these yet.

A.Goose: The article only said a higher premium but not how much. Am lookingm but doubt the sites have had time to post these yet.

Physiological or Psychological or socialogical or a combination?
Your right the market is people and they do herd.

Panda, re your 23:24. I have posted several trades here in advance, I shan't repeat them all for your benefit. Suffice it to say, EVERY SINGLE ONE made me money, as anyone who HAS follwoed those very specific posts knows. To repeat a few of the more recent ones, I sold my entire stake in Equities ( Fmagx, Fbgrx ) in August averaging out between DOW 7800 and DOW 8100. I stated my sale on this forum on the dates I sold. My capital gains for the 10 years I was in the funds were well in excess of 340%. This doesn't count my tax savings or complany stock match which would increase those gains by approx. 85% per year per dollar invested. ( .45 cents saved in taxes for each dollar invested, and .40 cents matched in my complany stock which has also gained ANOTEHR approx. 600% in that time frame ) .

I made a 1 day play of Fidelity Magellan on the day of the "Eclipse" ( 10% of my 401K plan MMF ) because I felt Puetz was such an excellent contrary indicator and was calling for a massive crash that date. It made me $3,014. I made a 2 day play the day of the "Full Moon" once again because Peutz was such a great contrary indicator and calling for a massive crash that day. Now for more serious recent plays based on fundamentals, I bought a 10,000 ounces of silver during the summer, averaging in between $4.18 and $4.25. I bought SSC, a small play of 2000 shares at .70 in early September. All these were announced in advance here of course.

I stayed on the sidelines waiting for DOW 6700 ( and stated as such here mnay times ) but after last weeks market activity, I altered my strategy ( stated here again in advance on Saturday, SUnday, Monday AM ) and bought
Fidelity Magellan on Monday's open this week, and I also moved 10% of the MMF into my own complany's stock ( LOR ) .

The balance of my 401K remains in cash ( MMF ) while my discretionary investment funds outside pension plan are in SIlver, Platinum, Numisamtic coins, the small SSC stake I have, a tiny Gold position ( few dozen ounces, all purchase below $325 and announced here a few weeks ago ) , and in cash.

Does that answer your question as to specifics?

"The overall impact from the Asian meltdown on the U.S. economy should not be underestimated, even if the direct impact is small," write ecnomists from Nesbitt Burns,the securities arm of the Bank of Montreal. Asia ABSORBS 29% OF U.S. EXPORTS AND AQCCOUNTS FOR 36% OF IMPORTS. But perhaps more importantly, Asia's share of the global economy, at 33.9% is the biggest of any region. By comparision NORTH AMERICA HAS A 22.6% SHARE , AND WESTERN EUROPE HAS 20.4%.........
......Right now, stocks and mutual funds comprise about 56% of households' liquid financialassets, according to the most recent Federal Reserve data. Ten years ago, the figure was about 35%
David Wyss , chief economist at Standard & Poor's DRI, estimates that the loss of $1 trillion in wealth, wich is just about what's evaporated here in the U.S. since last summer's stock-markethighs, could translate into a $40 billion reduction in consumer spending next year. That's enough to trim economic growth by 0,5%.


Very interesting..wouldn't you agree?

Panda: One must be careful for what one asks for......

Thanks RCM.

Specific dates/times for this week's calls were on 11/1 @ 21:18, 11/2 @ 15:13, 11/3 @ 03:49, 11/3 @ 13:45. As to August & September when I made more serious trades, we don't seem to have access however, anyone who has saved the pages can attest that I gave plenty of specifics IN ADVANCE. I know that real facts, actual trades, 100% accuracy in predictions is completely disrespected on this particular forum, however, they do exists nonetheless, "inconvenient" though that may be for GoldBugs who are playing mental masturbation games with each other. You know, the more I read posts by folks like yourself, Spud, Silverito, Puetz, Sheller, et al, the more I am starting to understand the postings of Hepcat.

It's got to be frustrating for an intelligent mind like his, to come across such a great forum as this and not only be ridiculed for posting facts, but read absolute nonsense day after day and see it "revered" by the majority of Kitcoites. VooDoo investment advice Panda. That's what most of it is. Maybe Hepcat, like myself, just can't resist this place, because we see it as our life's goal to inject a tiny grain of reality into this fantasyland asylum.

No, it doesn't.

LGB, where did you get that delicious, conspiratorial scoop that
Japan has been recession for seven years? : )

Silverite, just what useful Gold investment advice have you posted here? Or do you have something besides profanity in your vocabulary, and thought processes. I'd be real fascinated to hear of your own successful trades posted here IN ADVANCE, and your rationale for same. And that goes for the future too "Ite". What's your strategy? What's it based on? What's your sucess rate? Try and say SOME thing besides your obsessive compulsive LGB bashing.

I mean I don't mind it, being a free speech advocate and all ( and because it's useful for the site to see the mentality of such critics as yourself ) , but really, at least I post dozens of reasons WHY I invest as I do, my strategy, the rationale for it, etc. We're all just dying to hear about your astute trades.

Congratulations...you have done rather well...which path do you expect to follow nest?

Banks Encounter Difficulties Raising Funds from Overseas
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh1105/m1105b16.html

Globex down 580
The plunge protection team may have to go back to work again.
( :-}}}}}}

Well Private, I was leaning toward a protracted correction in the DOW, but the strength of the market in the face of the Asian crises, coupled with a lot of the latest economic news such as the ultra declining deficit, has swayed me back to bullishness for the time being. I'm going to average back into the market on each dip until I'm invested 50% in Equities, 10% in a Fidelity bond fund, 40% in cash, and see what the srping brings. I'm bullish on Silver and will hold it till it goes to $8.00 or $9.00, and start sellling to hopefully a top of $11 or $12 within the next 2 years.

IMNHO, we'll see a new highj in the DOW within 6 to 8 months, and DOW 10,000 by Y2K, unless there is an unforeseen and extreme change in the fundamentals of the economy. DOW will keep bouncing off P/E 21, but will test it many times in interim as well as making a few volatile corrections, primarily due to Derivitave playing Morons. ( Ma & Pa employee didn't budge in the face of last Monday and had NO FEAR at all which is one reason I've shifted bullish. All the action came from the Pro's, one reason I DON'T respect a lot of them. That world financier conspirator Soros, somehgow lost 2 Billion even though the folks here say he controls EVERYTHING on the face of the earth! )

LGB: Don't you mean "pouring salt on the earth?". Your constant droning is just like the salt sprayer at work. Since you so enjoy the Hepcrap mind, perhaps you would be so kind to the rest of us as to go and join him! I'm sure it would be mutually enjoyable.

IMNHO, we'll see a new highj in the DOW within 6 to 8 months, and DOW 10,000 by Y2K,
unless there is an unforeseen and extreme change in the fundamentals of the economy. DOW will


"Unless"? : )

"Apparently" Japan has recovered from its SEVEN year recession,
since the Japanese economy APPEARS TO BE strengthening. It SEEMS
that we are on the verge of a continuing world bull UNLESS
something bad happens. : )

You're killing me, pal. : )

If you ever bothered to read anything besides Kitco WC, you TOO would be aware that Japan has been in recession for 7 to 8 years. They now have a new record high Unemployment rate ( which is still a measly 3% ) , and they are ALSO 50% or more off their market highs of 1990 which is when their recession, deflationary collapse, financial crises, market crash, began. Where have you been? You ever pick up the WSJ or Business Week, oreven the National Enquirer?

Why, LGB, surely you don't expect us to believe that Japan has
been in a SEVEN year recession. All economists agree, there is
no such thing. : )

In fact, according to virtually every source that *I* have read
during the past four years, Japan is always on the "verge of
recovery", "early stages of recovery", "recovering", "stabilizing",
etc.

I wonder which one of us has been in limbo, after all? : )

In the immmortal words of Ronald Reagan, "There you go again!" Just incapable of posting anything re investments, Gold, Silver, the market eh Silverite?

Is that why you have this anal/retentive obsession with me? Is it jealousy? tell you what, go sit in the library and study for the next 20 years, then get a job so you have some investment funds like many of us here do, THEN come back and say something besides "Lgb*&%$# is a @#$% "

Or maybe just some therapy, Ritalin, Prozac, and bed rest might work for you. In any case, still waiting for your brilliant market analysis.

Er, LGB. I'm still waiting for an actual REFERENCE that says
Japan has been in recession for seven years. Unless...

Well, unless you're actually going to use something like Puetz's
newsletter?

Or Ravi Batra? : ) Wait, James Davidson? : )

I humbly await your quotation. : )

Oh, yeah, and how does that dang Treasury site work, anyway?
Just where did that dang $200B deficit go? : )

I came to this site to catch the thoughts and ideas of everyone. Even yours! However, since YOU seem to be so damned obnoxious about most everyones thoughts and ideas, I TOO finally became that way about YOURS! HOW ABOUT THAT, JERK! You did it to yourself, AND like a bulldog you pissed off, I AIN'T lettin' go! Go ahead and simply piss me off more, MEATHEAD!

Hey Who Cares, leave the comedy and satire to those who are at least a tiny bit proficient at it will ya? Now as to being a "party line" DOW Bull that believes a bubble crash / Recession isn't possible, you have me mixed up with someone else pal. If you read anything I ever wrote about investiment philosophy, it's that I will shift back and forth, evolve, change, and do whatever it takes to anticipate the turning points in the market when they arrive. Only Morons ( like the diehard Goldbugs I seeposting here ) stay with one single minded, narrow, head in the sand, srategy. Our pal Puetz for example, will be predicitng Crashes the rest of his life. Meanwhile, about 95% of the folks alive today have lost a LOT more money being OUT of the market than ever lost it being IN, and that won't change in the long run, even when the tide turns bearish.

Silverite, I'll let your last post speak eloquently as to the differences between you and I. Beyond your post, what could I ever say to make my case more effectively?

LGB, you appear to mistaken. From the Japanese Economic Institute,
1994 -

JAPAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE REPORT - JEI
November 11, 1994 REPORT A
-ti- LESSONS FROM JAPAN'S RECESSION
by Douglas Ostrom

SUMMARY

Japan's latest recession, which now appears to have lasted
from early 1991 to at least late 1993, was particularly severe by
Japanese standards. Initial skepticism that Japan really does
suffer from recessions largely evaporated as the downturn
stretched into years.

Eldorado, hombre, I look forward to your return, a man must do..

Now you're embarrasing yourself WC. Re your last request of an actual reference. How about TODAY's article in the Wall Street Journal you minsnk!! It was the latest of SEVERAL I've read over the past few years, from that source and many others. If you're gonna try and sound bright Who Cares, you really NEED to know a little something about your subject matter.

All

LISTEN NOW

THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE MESSAGE PAID FOR BY A FRIEND FOR YOUR SANITY:

REPEAT:

Date: Tue Nov 04 1997 20:37
Silverite ( silverite@aol.com ) ID#233379:
Mooney: It is now going to cut both ways! I would recommend to ALL that they SKIP over ALL POSTINGS from me AND LGB and comment to/on neither! Makes it VERY EASY to edit out/skip the idiocy and lunacy. I'VE HAD ENOUGH!

It's tired and I'm late Who Cares ( switch intended ) and sparring with you just isn't amusing me! Now I think I'll go heft some o' them big ole Saint Gaudens 1 oz, pieces, dream of treasure chests and Full Moon's and get the shuteye I need before you make me REALLY cranky! And learn to quote CURRENT news instead of ancient Asian Govt. propaganda will ya? Any Moron knows Japan's intertwined Govt./Industrial complex is not a parralel to our own economy, and their own "Bubble" investing was multiples of what our so called "Bubble" is at P/E's of 19:1

Goodnight WC and all. You can post more insults now Silverita, I'll neither care nor be around to read them. Be forewarned though, you look worse with each and every post my profanity spewing friend!

Well, now just a minute,Here's the Asian Times from Sept,
claiming that the Japanese recovery is moderate.... So, like,
how do you explain this, LGB?

Conspiracy Theory? : )




LA few years down the road, the decline hasn't happened. The bad news is, neither has a recovery, at least
not to the extent hoped for by the Japanese. The authorities still insist that the economy is on a rebound.
They do admit, though, that the recovery is "modest," and it remains that consumer spending this summer
hasn't been as sizzling as the weather. The April sales tax increase didn't help.GB.

You have to stay after school and clean all the erasers. You should really watch Sesame Street. It has helped many to spell.

Perfideous=Perfidious...Big Bird told me so ;- )

away...to the head of the class
 or Eric Bartell to my Potato ( e ) friends

btw...SpudDude, have you seen the Large pennant Gold has been forming??? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...I wonder what will happen...like Gravitie...er...Gravity...yeah, that's it. It will be going down soon. Please be aware of this. You know in advance...again...do you care to make a buck or two?? I have inside info, remember? And let us not quarrel. Let us be friends and make money together...I love you man!!

LGB takes up more bandwidth than just about anyone else at Kitco. He is also usually the first to sling mud. Bart called him on both counts, but he is worse than ever. Any regular posters agree with me?

LGB, I plead with you. Please help me to understand this article
from the Japanese Information Network, claiming that the recession
ended in 1993....


n fiscal 1992 the economy barely avoided zero growth, falling to 0.4%, and a year later it sunk to a
postwar low of 0.2%. The private sector was confronted with the need to slash excess inventory,
equipment, and personnel--the legacy of overinvestment during the bubble years. The Government
responded by adopting a series of emergency economic measures and including in the fiscal 1993 budget
a stimulatory public-works spending package underwritten by an increased issue of construction bonds.
The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, ratcheted down the official discount rate to a record low of 1.75% in
September 1993. These policies resulted in the economy finally turning up in October 1993, led by
public works investment and housing starts. The growth rate climbed to 0.5% in fiscal 1994. The nascent
recovery was slowed, however, by a succession of blows dealt to the economy starting in the summer of

LGB: Ah, but you don't get it! I DON'T care what others think of me here. I came ONLY FOR YOU! You harkened to me with your shrillish hollering! How could I EVER resist?

LGB, Sir. I think Silverite should turn his skills to the task
at hand. Were you able to take a look at the Nikkei for us? Any suggestions as to where its heading in the next six weeks. We await your considered opinion Sir.

Now realizing the utter futility of sparring with the Neurologically challenged, I hereby resolve to post no further messages of unecessarily argumentative, inflammatory, condescening, or abusive nature.

In reviewing the sheer infantilism of an exchange such as the current dialogue between myself and Silverito/Who Cares/Panda/EB/Lurker/Dave/ElDorado/et al., I hereby renounce such puerile posting methodology.

Henceforth, on the advice of Stradmaster and other gentlemen of class, I will demonstrate to all Kitco, that it's possible for one to radically change not ONLY investment strategy, but also the mode of publicly uttered discourse. In addition, the prolifigacy of posts made by myself will decrease proportionate to the losses that all Goldbugs have suffered in the past 10 years and ( Oops..uhh.. I mean my posts will drop to 10% of their former overprolific frequency ) and my satirical comments will be of a general nature. and directed at no specific individuals. The only exception being if said individuals last names begin with the letter "P" of course.

These self imposed restrictions are made of sound mind ( in spite of disagreements here to the contrary ) and under no duress.

Thank you.

Lurking Gold Bug ( LGB )

And I have been cast off as a dirty and oily rag.

LGB, I seek only to rectify these confusing contradictions that cost
me cash! I humbly ask your help in resolving the wretched roller-
coaster ride that reeks havoc upon my retirement!

Surely you can explain this myriad of myopic mouthings of "recovery"
and "post recession". Why, pray tell, would the WSJ change its
tune NOW, and why would YOU believe them? You, the Skeptic of
Skeptics, the Sole Survivor of Doom & Gloom salesmen?!

And.... and that DANG contradiction from the Treasury department. : )

Heck, at least you gave me a good laugh tonight.

Heck, at least Puetz stood and fought. : )

To be honest, I havn't a clue. My considered guess would be flirtation with 16000 whereupon intervention by BOJ, the U.S., IMF, and whomever else might step in to shore op the financial institutions will prevent the all out freefall and a recovery will begin.

LGB: You have not encountered the worst of them yet. I have LARGE teeth, and a LONG memory! Go ahead. Give it your BEST shot! I LOVE the scent of blood. Even mine!

We seek only to prosper and untangle these unwieldly and unconsistent
utterings from the underlings of usurary. Surely you will help us
in our quest?

It is by the shills of LGB that the DOW acquires speed. : )
His shrills acquire slips.
The slips foretell of shorning.
It is by the pips of LBG that my laughter satisfies needs. : )

Who Cares, please defer to my new resolution and "bait" not, the new and improved LGB.

Silverite
LGB has not yet realized that most here find him offensive and annoying.
His constant baiting and heckling only draw the same from the people who attack him.

Like all on this forum we are all given the opportunity to scroll forward.
The beauty of this feature is that we can choose ourselves as to what we want to read and what we want to avoid.

Having noticed the tension that builds, when disaggreements arise, and the increase in his postings, I would suggest that he enjoys doing this.

I would think that there would be a formula that could be applied to LGB.
Something like: If he baits you and you respond then he will respond by a factor of two. To then dissagree with him at this point means that he will increase his tirades by a factor of four with longer replies. If at this point he is provoked again then this indicator then moves up to the next factor of eight.

If one was to analyse his many postings, I think that they would fall into categories something like:
10% real information - benefit for others.
20% baiting and drawing arguement - benefit for his ego.
40% berating and belittling those he has draw in - puffing up his ego.
20% shouting to all that he is always right - supporting his ego.
10% crowing and pontificating that he will always be right - trying to justify his enormous ego.

LGB
Purely for your own benefit, I would suggest that you go back to all the last months posts and analyse them using the above formula.
I think that you would be surprised in the way that you communicate to others who only are here to communicate.

Your style of verbose is so similar to the other hepcats etc.
Use the same formula on their rantings and see.

You are obviously a very intelligent person but undeniably have a wicked streak in your ego.

When I used to go to sea for many months at a time, I recognised these traits in many of the people who came to seek work with me.
I never took them on because they would always fragment the sanity level neccesary to work together as a team for long periods of time.

I managed to run a good profitable operation with as little disharmony as possible, gaining respect from my peers, my employers and my crew.

Needless to say I always had people seeking me out to work with as they recognised that work without friction can truely be enjoyable.

I constantly lurk here, read most and contribute probably too much.

But the beauty of this site, is not the verbal garbage or the massive opinions that we all pontificate, but to obtain insights and usefull information so to help us in our quests for financial betterment and empirical understanding.

Sorry for the rant but I feel these observations to be true.
There is definetly room for improvement in communication skills within this forum.
IMHO

It is for bills alone that LGB acquires greed.
It is by mouth alone that shills go to seed.
Their margins require phone calls.
The calls are more than a warning.
It is by LGB alone that my lungs remove my mourning.

Come on, Nick, let me have some fun, my life has been living hell
for... let's see, it's 365 days + 18 days now. : ) Heck, with any
luck I can goad LGB in blowing my head off, thus ensuring a fair
sum to my wife. : )

LGB: And besides all that, DUMP the "Lurking" in your handle, since you are NOT, and HAVE NOT been, "lurking"!

Nick. Please refer to my 02:42. Thanks for the excellent charts.

Nick, if I may humbly submit one tiny bit of disagreement to the motives ascribed to me in your lengthy post. It is my own considered belief that EGO played only a 24% role in the former posts of my evil twin, the former LGB. Twisted amusement accounted for another 60% and 16% was intended as useful ( albeit condescendingly delivered ) investment information. IMNH.... Uh, I mean IMHO.

Nick: Only with NO ONE responding to LGB does the scroll ahead "feature" work. Else, one does not know what doesn't pertain. This is why I wanted this "battle" to be only mine. So one COULD scroll on by. I came here just for "IT"! Make it so, if I might ask.

One other thing about LGB. My advice is to e mail Bart if you find his posts not in keeping with the Netiquette Guidelines as set forth by Mr. Kitner.

G'day Nick@Oz. Looks like someone left the door to the pig sty open the last few days. Doesn't bother me as I just scroll past 'em and NEVER answer their ravings. It's a shame though, as many of the better posters see what is going on and go elsewhere-- so unfortunately we all lose.

Have really enjoyed your charts, mate. When I saw the 200 day moving averages being approached I unloaded my puts and it has turned out to be a good move. Am now accumulating them again-- but have you noticed they are not retracing as much as you would think. There is a new element out there mate--FEAR--especially amongst the pros. They know how quickly this thing can turn and they're not offering the bargains that were available a month or two ago. One more card on the card house!!! We've gone through about four decks and....... is that a breeze I feel on my cheeks???

SHUT UP ABOUT LGB YOU DIP****. THE DUDE IS RIGHT ABOUT YOU, YOU HAVE NOTHING TO SAY

Don't worry, LGB, I'm just funning with you. Although, I can
honestly say I wouldn't mind having my head blown off at this
point. I found out three weeks ago that the FRIGGING CREEP
that ruined my career finally did get fired... and then rehired
at my FRIGGING BANK! Now he has all my credit card numbers,
new address, phone numbers, everything. My credit rating is
messed up now, the bank claims they hired him on Oct 1, even
though I called his voice mail on Sept 27th, etc, etc and started
closing accounts, etc.

I live in a movie now, I find it hard to take anything seriously.

Been lurking here a long time and love the many points of view. I must say though that I find the critics of LGB more strident than he himself has been. I've gotten a lot of useful info from his posts and many others. Just a thought from a lurker.

Sideliner: No truer words have been said. I DON'T have anything to say! At least nothing that should bother your few brain cells. I'm sure we can continue THIS conversation offsite. You HAVE my E-mail address.

Thanks Amazed, the new and improved LGB appreciates that. Thanks Who Cares, I knew you were just yankin my chain. Sorry to hear about the job thing. I empathize greatly. Don't hang on to the bitterness, it'll hurt you and not the other guy. Best revenge, go find a better position and excel and put him behind you, considering him beneath your dignity to have any emotion toward. I havn't encountered such problems in the workplace yet, so I can't full understand what you're going through, but do empathize. If you have family, put all your emotion there and "F" the rest of the Looney's of the world!

Good show chaps...nice to see evryone make amends...now back to the Japan debauchery!!!
What is the market at right now?
When do feel the Jap Banks will be force to start calling in loans?
Will this not send Global markets over the EDGE?
Opions ....Answeers....comments please!

see ya all after the fumigator leaves

later

What a buncha hypocrites. The bashingist posts here mostly
come from the very ones who complain loudest about LGB and
Hepcat. Bunch of pontificating, pretentious, blowhards.
Thanks Nick for giving us another of your market moves
after the fact.

Any comments about intervention in Japan?
How do you feel about the Nipponese banks caring no performing loans on the books forever and a day?

The address for complaints is bkitner@kitco.com He has "reformed" many times before.

G'day ( g'nite ) Auracious. Hope that fumigator has a strong nose. When the air clears, remind me that I've cut out an article on Kiwi gold shares for you and will post so we can discuss. Give BJ a big smooch for me ( on your behalf -- of course ) .

Read this column by Wm. Safire. Explosive stuff. http://headlines.yahoo.com/nytsafi.html

http://headlines.yahoo.com/nyt/05safi.html

Aurator: Fumigator; bugs; not bad! I wonder if that handle is open. Seems more suitable than the one I currently carry, at least in the task I put put myself onto.

I must say that after ALL these postings I've made WITH my E-mail address attached, I've had NO responses of any negatory kind. What does that say?
You are free to send me one, as is anyone. Pro or con. Why else would I post my E-mail address?

Bearishness seen ebbing for gold price-Gold Fields

TOKYO, Nov 5 ( Reuters ) - Despite recent weakness in gold
prices, it will be difficult to maintain a bearish view on gold
in the coming months, an analyst with Gold Fields Mineral
Services said on Wednesday.
Despite steady mine supply offsetting strong physical
demand, gold prices have weakened this year as a result of more
bullion stocks coming on to the market from other sources, Gold
Fields senior metals analyst Paul Walker told the Nikkei Gold
Conference.
Such a large mobilisation of bullion stocks, however, is
unlikely to be repeated in the coming half year given the recent
gold price of just above $310 per ounce, he said.
"I find it difficult to agree with those who believe that
the only sign on the road ahead is gold in a wheelchair looking
for a quiet exit," Walker said.
In the first half of this year, gold mine supply increased
by a modest 1.4 percent year-on-year and if current prices
persist gold miners will not be willing to increase mine output
significantly, he said.
In fact, over 50 percent of gold mines cannot produce a book
profit at current prices for the metal, he said.
On the other hand, gold demand put in a remarkably strong
performance in the first half of this year, with a dramatic rise
in Indian gold bullion imports, he said.
Falling real prices for gold combined with rising spending
power, mainly due to improved agricultural output, triggered a
leap in Indian demand for gold in the second quarter, he said.
World gold fabrication posted a substantial year-on-year
increase of 15 percent in the first half, with Chinese demand
for jewellery growing by almost 20 percent, he said.
Although total fabrication plus bar holdings exceeded mine
output and scrap supplies, the gap was filled by the
mobilisation of bullion stocks via official sector sales,
disinvestment and producer hedging, he said.
This mobilisation tends to push the gold price down and
encourages further speculative selling and producer hedging, he
said.
But in the coming months gold producers are unlikely to
continue to sell forward additional quantities or on a net
basis, unless there is a substantial improvement in the gold
price, he said.
Speculative sellers will have a very limited appetite for
trying to push the price down against a very solid floor of
physical demand, he said.
The window of opportunity, at least for European Union
central banks, to sell further large quantities of gold is
gradually closing with the approach of European Economic and
Monetary Union, he said.
The only shadow looming over the market is the recent
turmoil in Asia, although this crisis appears to be settling
down, he said.

--------------------------------------------------------ALSO----------------------------------------------------------

WGC sees hedge funds behind slump in gold price

TOKYO, Nov 5 ( Reuters ) - The World Gold Council ( WGC ) said
on Wednesday that dramatic growth in short selling by
speculators, particularly hedge funds, caused gold prices to
slump this year, not sales by central banks.
"There is no doubt in my mind that they ( large speculators )
are taking advantage of the market's fear of central bank sales
to bully the gold price down and make huge profits," WGC manager
of gold analysis George Milling-Stanley said.
"There has in fact been no great wave of central bank sales
in recent months, or even years. But the fear is there," he told
a gold conference in Tokyo.

Here is food for thought. This column by Pat Buchanan sounds extreme. What do you want to bet that becomes a widely held position when the economy sours? http://rampages.onramp.net/~rampage/buchanan.htm

Yahoo 86 Safire bit...will you summerize?

The link posted by Try Again is working. Implications for oil prices.

G'day 500. Good article. The Ruskies and Frogs are upset because this UN embargo won't let 'em make squillions on Iraqi oil. The US refusal to trade with Iran ( at least on the surface ) is also playing right into their hands. All that oil money going into Russian and French armaments. They're playing for BIG stakes in the middle east. Russia is trying to reassert itself, and what better way to thumb their nose at the Yanks!! The French will sell anything to anybody-- Gaulic noses in the air -- they will still give lip service to the West-- as long as it doesn't cost 'em a kilo of pate de foie gras.

Spectator: I too have "noticed" that "He has reformed before". And just because "He has reformed" again does not mean that I am going away!!!!! Repeat after me: "NOT"!!!

Hi Nick. Yep, I think a lot of Americans are ready to leave Europe to its own devices.

Auric-- another great article, mate. Buchanan's gripes are widely held. Don't worry though. In a couple of years the US will be too busy bailing out all of it's own middle class yuppies to worry about being the world's benefactor/policeman/saviour. When the pension funds go bust and the money the huge American middle class calls on for it's retirement IS NOT THERE-- Buchanan and his ilk shall then reign supreme. There will be only two classes in the US -- the rich and various degrees of poor. Today's yuppies are in for a "downgrading" of their credit ratings shortly!!

Hi everybody. I'm new on the internet. I'm invested in mutual funds. I like the banking sector. Thought I might hedge with a little gold. Any suggestions?

Sure was great last week. I scooped up some great deals at bargain basement prices. How quickly do you guys figure we'll hit 10,000 on the Dow? Should I buy some gold now or wait till it gets cheaper?

Looks like bonds are getting ready for a buy. Anyone agree? I heard Warren Buffet was buying.

Hello - is anyone here?

Oct 29 kfdlas 18:59
kfdlas ( fjkla ) ID#251147:
With respect to Another,, there is a poster on the SI that has used the
phrase "noone."

Got GUMSHOE investigating. Look who uses the phrase "noone":

april 06 Bob 17:19
april 13 AG 16:21
may 11 IDT 20:29 ( @Home )
may 23 Front 22:36
may 24 Earle 20:57
jun 04 Big Trader 33:10
jun o5 RJ 08:08
jun 12 EWP 22:54
july 23 2 15;14
july 31 2 02;42
AUG 1 Who cares 13:21
Sept 13 EB 5:45
Sept 14 2 18:45
Sept 18 2 12:44
Sept 20 JTFlick 21:34
Sept 22 JTFlick 16:03
Sep 26 Reify 02:48
Sep 26 JTFlick18:15
Sep 27 JTFlick14:48
Oct 04 JTF14:32
Oct 05 ANOTHER 21:29
Oct 08 JTF 20:22
Oct 11 JTF 08:16
Oct 12 ANOTHER 10:42
Oct 13 JTF 23:14
Oct 17 JTF 16:53
Oct 19 ANOTHER 09:42
Oct 19 JTF 20:39
Oct 19 ANOTHER 23:08
Oct 24 JTF 07:30
Oct 25 JTF 1997 13:07
Oct 25 and here's something else that irritates me 3:05
Oct 29 kfdlas 18:59
kfdlas ( fjkla ) ID#251147:
With respect to Another,, there is a poster on the SI that has used the
phrase "noone."

Date: Wed Oct 29 1997 19:11
jfkla ( fjla ) ID#251213:
To NOONE
That is at least a canadian term or expression, right?
Nov 01 JTF 07:47
Nov 04 Delphi 17:41

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/31/z0009_75.html

Gum Shu: That is hilarious -- I didn't even know I used the term "NOONE"!Lousy English on my part. If you want to really find out what is happening, why don't you get one of those "style" or word useage programs? Is there any one else who speaks in riddles?

LGB
Noticed your post after I had posted and concur.
Glad you enjoy the charts and will keep them coming.
Looking forward to the day when I can do this site justice, by posting more informative ones on gold rather than equities.
Time shall tell.

Nick@C hope you kept a few of those Nab put warrants - they will be worth a lot more soon.
Judgeing by the way some of my picks have been jumping violently, they will be worth their weight in gold - that is if they honour their paper.
That 300% sqeeze on the nabwbq's shows their inherent power when this market comes off seriously.
I could have and probably should have taken profits on that first wave but feel that the move coming is more of a position trade than a day trade. I could never replace my positions for what I paid for them.
The time factor with these long dated put warrants is esquisite.
Those mugs sold risk at absolutely no premium.

The next wave of fear that enters our markets should have a far greater ping effect ( velocity X distance ) .
The size and speed of it should leave many in awe.

The markets are poised for it and I feel that it is only hours/days away.

As far as the bookies go, now would be one of the better times for it to occur. The have just trashed the shorts and got the rest long.
The greatest profits would be had now if they were to let it all go.

There are many pricing structures for different derivatives, that are saying that all things are not at all right.

The reflections of chatters on avid leads me to believe that something is out of kilter, and will surface shortly.
IMHO

JTF a riddle, a diddle, a fiddlee-oh-oh-do, you know who

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Could you explain "ping effect"? You must have some idea when the next wave might hit -- I think. Thanks!
All: Saddam Hussein I think realizes that his leadership style is incompatible with an end to the Iraq oil embargo ( e? ) . He has the uncanny ability to irritate at the wrong moments - fortunately for the US. I think this time he is just playing games, but if BC gets any political heat for anything, we might have a real crisis anyway.
I thought this time of the year, troop movements would be difficult in the middle east. Saddam should have got that lesson anyway by now that a conventional war with troops will not work.

Donald: Did you see my post about El Nino last night? Isn't it interesting that the regions hardest hit by currency crises are also hardest hit by El Nino? Doesn't Brazil have a problem too? Can't recall whether other South American countries have been severely affected? Peru?
Thos could be very important to Jin -- another year or so of El Nino before it abates.
I think Brazil is next.

*JTF*
So let me get this straight. Although you share exact correlations, temporally and idiomatically with ANOTHER ( see Stardate 11/05/97 05:28 ) in the use of the idiosyncratic "noone" you deny you are Another? and insist you are ONE? A particular?

Thanks - just spotted it!

JTF How do you know when you've been touched by a golden speach?

Gum Shu - Unless I have a secret personality unknown to myself and others , I am not ANOTHER! Wish I were because then I would be able to tell you what he/she knows! I can't get him/her to write in something other than mysterious prose filled with riddles. I thought at first ANOTHER was a novelist, testing his future book on us. Now I am not so sure. He/she does no alot about gold trading -- that contango stuff is way over my head. Personally, what I do is only take in what I can prove from other sources -- I suggest you do also.
What is that bit about "ONE"? Now you are speaking in riddles too! I need to get more coffee...

JTF,

Last few months,HAZE,CURRENCIES CRISIS,STOCKS PLUNGE,FORREST FIRE,CIVIL WAR AT CAMBODIA,THAILAND'S AND INDONESIA'S PLAY-MATE IMF VISITING,NOW MISS.LINDA... http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100u.htm...
What a bull year according to CHINESE LUNAR YEAR! Still couples of months to go for "HUNGRY TIGER YEAR 1998"!....Will try to check the chinese holoscope....

Good morning JIN and ALL kITCOITES...

Jin - Can't open your post, but I guess it is about hurricane Linda. Any truth to my guess that the El Nino might have come before, or even during the currency crisis? Hope your family is ok ... you may have another year of trouble before it gets better .. I don't think we have a clue yet what is coming our way in the spring and summer in the US.

JTF If you have your coffee, why i have my wine. I alerted you, tho' no alert is necessary, to the dangers of correlations. I have just made a good case ( right TORT? ) for at least trying you for being "Another".

That is what I was trying to say some time ago when I axed "what are you measuring?" XAU:AU. I know what you think you are measuring, but, I apologise if I sound a little salty, *you* understand Chaos theory as it applies to the arts of mensuration ( hear the moon? ) what are you trying to measure. So much measurement! That is why one must sometimes turn off this infernal device, it is late for me,

hello TED

G'day ( night ) mate---yer up late! Thanks for the e-mails and will respond in kind ( shortly ) ....Dec. gold up .70

By the ping effect I am referring to the size of the next move.
The last down move lasted for a period of approx. 12hrs.
Say 3hrs on the first day, 8 hrs on the next and 1 hr on the third day.

I believe that the wave would have been much larger, had it not been stopped.
It is immaterial that it was manipulated and stopped.
All the price action has been recorded on the charts,
and even with this manipulation still falls into classic t/a.

If Panda were to post one of his beautiful live charts of the fall of the dow,
you would see that it starts falling slowly over time and as it picks up,
it increases speed and distance covered over time.
Then it starts to slow down and falls less over time.

This acceleration feature ( velocity/distance ) of the fall can be used to measure what is in store for us.
If I had the live data, I could graph this for you and show you how the fall was thwarted.
It was stopped while it still had high velocity pushing it. It had unfinished business.
The degree that they had to push the PREM shows the force needed to turn it around.
They had to raise the PREM by 70 odd points to stop and turn it. ( from -27 to +40 )

Because of this I know that there is "unfinished business" down below.
Even the market can sense this. It is being reflected in the charts.
Because oscillations normally extend out in waves, expanding outwards before contracting inwards.
I would guess that the next wave will exhibit a larger ping than last time.
Meaning that the size of the fall will be larger and the velocity will be greater.

The adv/dec oscillator charts that I have posted here show this ping feature well.
The ones were they show the number of shares up and down.
These charts that I post monitor just under 10,000 US stocks.
I feel that they are a very powerful indicator.

I doubt that there will be little warning before the fall, as in previous years.
Those that think they can get out or in prior to the move are deluding themselves.
The comments from Oldman testify to the unusual state of the markets at the moment.
He made a rare move today, holding positions over the night.
He senses something about to happen, senses that to ride the wave, one must be in.
I sense the changes happening at the moment.

Technically if this rally was to extend itself there should be accumulation at the moment.
That there was distribution going on last night, shows that the market is weak and is ready to sell off again.
A good drop down will trigger the swing chart into continuing its downtrend.
IMHO

Here is a chart of the PREM for the week.
You can see how hard it has had to be pushed just to regain a fibo retracement.

Aurator: I always enjoy your posts, partially because I know your skills with words are way beyond mine! If I unpeel several layers of the onion, as I think Vronsky might say -- I think what you are saying is that correlations do not proove causality. I don't recall your post about the XAU/au -- but if you review my posts you will see that I do not follow this indicator on a daily basis -- long term indicator only, as far as I am concerned.
A more important point I think is the oil/gold/dollar correlation. You point is well taken here -- all we have a correlation only - no proof of what is happening at the LBMA.
My hat is off to you if you think I need investigating to see if I am another -- I certainly am enjoying this. What we really need is to focus attention on sources other than ANOTHER, because all we have, as I think you are saying is correlations and not proof regarding the LBMA, etc!
What if I told you that the correlation between cholesterol and heart diease may only be coincidence, and the truth lies elsewhere? Haven't you noted ANOTHER's somewhat stilted style, and the fact that his/her long posts never occur on confrontation - usually 24 hours or more later?

JTF I mean no offence compadre, on examination my words sound much harsher than I ever intended

my ego aint my amigo anymore

Have to run - big day with major computer conversion affecting nearly 100 0 people in about 30 minutes -- waited 8 years for this moment.
Nick -- Your graph reminds me of something resembling a Dirac delta funct ion, or a real time acoustic signal -- like a ping! I think we need the echo before we can estimate the time for the next one -- I would guess it would be that magic 0.618, or 1.618 of the Fibonacci series. Thanks for the graph!

Wednesday November 5 6:11 AM EST

Gold price unlikely to fall below $300 -- analyst

By Aya Takada

TOKYO, Nov 5 ( Reuters ) - Gold prices are unlikely to break below the key psychological support level of $300 per ounce in
the near future, as strong physical demand is likely to come to the rescue before that happens, a gold market analyst said on
Wednesday.

Since gold prices plunged to around $285 in 1985, strong physical demand has emerged to lift prices every time they were
within touching distance of $300, George Milling-Stanley, an analyst at the World Gold Council, told Reuters.

``I'm not going to say that it cannot happen, but I think it's very unlikely to fall below $300,'' Milling-Stanley said.

``If it does, it won't stay there because physical demand is much stronger now than it was in 1985.''

Gold prices plummeted to a 12-year low of around $308 last month in reaction to a proposal by Swiss experts to sell 1,400
tonnes, or more than half of Switzerland's gold reserves. Gold is currently trading at around $314 dollars an ounce.

Milling-Stanley said the gold market currently has much stronger underlying support from physical demand throughout the
world than in 1985, except for a few countries in Southeast Asia, where demand has been depressed by a currency crisis and
economic problems.

On the other hand, gold mine production increased by only 1.4 percent year-on-year in the first half of this year, and it showed
no sign of improvement in the second half, he said.

At current gold prices, more than half of the world's gold mines are making losses, and producers are postponing or cancelling
mine expansion plans, he said.

It would be a long time before a mining company decided to close down mines, but if prices were to stay at low levels, serious
production cuts would begin to emerge, he said.

``If the price stays where it is, we will see lower production next year,'' he said.

A supply-and-demand imbalance is continuing to grow, which has helped to lift gold prices, he said.

Although the fundamentals of the gold market are healthy, speculative selling has kept gold prices under pressure, he said.

Speculators are taking advantage of the market's fear of central bank gold sales to drive down the gold price and make huge
profits, he said.

Milling-Stanley said the proposal by the Swiss gold experts had so far received no support from the Swiss government, the
Swiss National Bank or the Swiss finance ministry.

He said there is support for a possible sale of 400 tonnes of gold from Switzerland's gold reserves, but added that even that
plan must be subject to popular referendum.

``Switzerland may not sell any gold at all, but that was not understood clearly in the market,'' he said.

He also said he could not envisage the Swiss proposal prompting any gold sales from other central banks.

``The last serious central bank sales was the one from Australia that unleashed strong criticism from ordinary Australian
people. I think it will make any central bank think twice before taking similar decisions in the future,'' he said

Milling-Stanley also said that gold still had a role as a safe haven in times of financial-market turmoil.

When stock prices fell sharply last month In Hong Kong, gold demand soared there, he said.

But in the United States, gold demand did not rise significantly when the New York stock market plunged last month, because
it was only a minor correction, he said.

``I think that if we get serious significant corrections in the financial markets, then gold will still be seen to have a role as a safe
haven,'' he said.

- Tokyo Commodities Desk ( 813 ) 3432-7431

More news for related categories: stock capsules.


Help

Nick: Your technical analysis of stock market movements are among the best posts on this site. Keep em coming!

You should have something behind the wood pile...EB: WAKE UP!

http://www.gold.org/Pages/Wgmc1.htm

JTF: Still checking back posts. I will look for it. I keep getting "transfer interrupted" messages today and last night.

Schippi: Regarding your question...would I be comfortable with a large account with e-gold? - yes - Let me explain. First off you know I am a customer depositor. ( clear bias, I admit ) Second, I like the fact that what is represented in my deposit is 100% backed by metal. Third, nobody but me has anything to do with my money in the system, it is mine, not some bankers method of adding to the spiraling lending game.

Fourth, I can redeem my money in the system, in full, in the metal ( s ) of MY choice, and redemption is one keystroke away. Fifth, I have far more faith and belief in the e-gold system as real money than I do in the figment standard paper kept in banks. Sixth, I hear people all the time talking about whether I am nuts concerning my deposits in e-gold. My answerDo they have a comfort level having paper/electric, figment standard paper that is not even in a bank representing their deposit.

Now Schippi, as I stated, it is one of many methods. I don't subscribe to keeping all of one's eggs in one basket. But, if the banks go down, my money is available to me. E-gold is not a part of the banking system. It is a private alternative that is held on deposit, it is not mixed, or tainted with any form of the current banking system. All the paper on the planet could go poof, I still have my electric gold, backed by physical gold and I can have it on demand at a keystroke. E-gold has no rights whatsoever to my money/metal other than to administrate my wishes.

Currently I have every single paper based asset in position for immediate wire transfer. At the first blush of a paper meltdown my figment standard money streaks into the e-gold system. If I get terrified, I can have it delivered anywhere pronto.

On a personal note, I have found Mr. E-gold to be pleasant, helpful, attentive and most certainly not a money lending whore looking to suck my blood through my money on deposit in the system.

I am comfortable with e-gold, I am a satisfied customer, I tried it and I like.

Aurator: The XAU/Spot Ratio is a measure of willingness. It answers the simple question of "how much safe, in pocket gold are investors willing to put a risk to dig a greater amount of gold out of the ground". For the past 13 years the number has ranged from .13 ounces to .39 ounces.

I feel that it combines some basic financial analysis about mining prospects with some basic information about the current mindset of the gold investment community. It seems like a good starting point for making any decision about gold share investment timing.

Hello ALL! {:-}}
Such a joy to open and find Kitco as it was when I first came in last month. A whole scroll of great posts-thank you.

Oh, JIN: With you in spirit. Take care.

JTF, NickA- chart 12/28 sent-reduced I hope? There are 11 more, aside from text pages. The .618/.382 seems clearer to me on these. I quote from p17/28:
GOLD: Perfect in all ways.
"Round the clock trading in the gold price during Nov/Dec 1993 yields an incredibly accurate grid integrating all the classical characteristics of quantized time and price, taking every significant turning point into account. This clearly demonstrates a global trading rhythm consistently accurate down to a few minutes and cents, so affirming the reality of a planetwide pulsating regulatory force field." F Crooks Synchronicity of Tidal Activiy & Stockmarket Dynamics. 20/7/1997

Hello ALL! {:-}}
Such a joy to open and find Kitco as it was when I first came in last month. A whole scroll of great posts-thank you.

Oh, JIN: With you in spirit. Take care.

JTF, NickA- chart 12/28 sent-reduced I hope? There are 11 more, aside from text pages. The .618/.382 seems clearer to me on these. I quote from p17/28:
GOLD: Perfect in all ways.
"Round the clock trading in the gold price during Nov/Dec 1993 yields an incredibly accurate grid integrating all the classical characteristics of quantized time and price, taking every significant turning point into account. This clearly demonstrates a global trading rhythm consistently accurate down to a few minutes and cents, so affirming the reality of a planetwide pulsating regulatory force field." F Crooks Synchronicity of Tidal Activiy & Stockmarket Dynamics. 20/7/1997

Nick@Aussie: "He senses something about to happen, senses that to ride the wave, one must be in.
I sense the changes happening at the moment."

That is the way I feel. I added to my Rydex Ursa yesterday on a nice quiet trading day because I am afraid that if I wait until the move is apparent to the whole world I won't be able get my broker.

JTF: Have you also noticced that ANOTHER seems to post at about midnight [Kitco time} ?

I read with extreme interest your blurb on E-Gold.
My question is: IYHO: how responsible/reliable are they vs. banks on
redemptions ?
Obviously U are happy with them and that says a lot.
Have you done withdrawals as well ?
Thanks: Qman

ANOTHER IS JTF!!!!!!! nice try buddy.

Nick @Aussi

These are YESTERDAYS' headlines from Dow Jones... ( November 4,1997 )


DJ 08:49 +LONDON STK EXCHANGE TO PUT SETS SUSPENSION TRIGGER AT 20%
DJ 08:49 *LONDON STK EXCHANGE SAYS 20% TRIGGER EFFECTIVE NOV. 5
DJ 08:49 *LONDON STK EXCHANGE TO PUT SETS SUSPENSION TRIGGER AT 20%

http://www.forbes.com:80/forbes/97/1117/6011202a.htm

There are 3 possible future directional outlooks for US stocks. 1- continue up, 2- remain essentially unchanged, 3-go down. Let us examine the possibilities for each. #1 there is no concieveable way that the mkts can continue up in the face of declining earnings increases and this is allready happening and will be exercebated by weekness and recessions in other world economies. What this will lead to is flat earnings and no capital appreciation in stocks therefore returns will be from dividends only,approximately 1.7% on S&P at the present time, this futher reduced for mutual fund holders by .5% manage fees and costs. Once mutual fund holders see yields of 1.2% or less for a couple of quarters most will realize that there are greener pastures elswhere and start to sell, this will escalate into a bear mkt and recession. #2 If the mkts remain unchanged for a couple of quarters the results will be the same as the #1 sceneraio. #3 If the mkts go down for a couple of quarters then the #1 & #2 above will be advanced in time. What are we left with? A bear mkt and recession are a certainity within 12 or so months and that will end the new paradigm, new era no business cycle arguments for a few years. Happy new year traders.

LGB -- So I'M infantile? I asked some very specific things. You did not answer specifically. Any trader would know dates, sizes, and prices. Why? Because you would have the trading records.

You're right about one thing, LGB, a discussion is not possible with you. You're always right, so how can one discuss that? The word hubris comes to mind.

Off to do work thingees...............

Qman: Actually, yes. Just yesterday in fact. Took less than 2 minutes. I selected the form ( metal type and coin or bar, plus type ) and it is on the way.

Relative to trust. Hmmm...fair question, tough answer. Regarding Mr. E-gold. Yes, implicitly. As the creator of the system he obviously has a distain for the current money system. He believes in gold and in every single dealing, conversation and instance I have found him to be a man of his word. Golden in fact, if I can use an overused pun.

I have far more trust in e-gold than in my bank. But, then again, my bank has figment standard paper, and I know all of it is not in the bank. On the other hand, my e-gold is, in the system, physically, only a part of the system in that it is there, but nobody else can utilize it as a financial instrument other than myself.

Add Panda to the growing list of people fed up with LGB....Eldorado, RJ, Mooney, etc.

A very useful news source to add to your Bookmarks. Seems to be
updated daily. Lots of info on Middle East situation & more.
http://www.jvim.com/cgi-bin/update.cgi
The spin doctors are in over drive, as our Australian ABC TV "Lateline"
TV show is featuring Saddam Hussein & Clinton. Looks hot.

The "flight to quality" into the U.S. induced such a tremendous
rise in the US$ that those currencies pegged to the greenback
came under pressure. The underlying assets in Asia and South
America became overvalued. They are not worth as much as
implied by the present value of the US$. It is important to
understand that the flight from the Euro into the US$ is the first
and main reason for the present currency crisis in Asia:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/orpailleur1103.html

Australia could lose up to 60,000 jobs due to Asian Crisis.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971106/news/news4.html

Colleen: Thanks for the nice posts -- I suspect there will be some talk about me being ANOTHER for a few days -- I must admit I'm enjoying the attention by the Kitco gumshoes -- but as it often the case they are waisting their energy on the wrong things -- they should be unraveling the gold/oil/dollar LMBA mystery instead. Even Aurator's inspector background got the best of him for a moment, until reality clicked in. I don't think they have noticed your post on the temporal correlation of ANOTHER's posts yet, or the different ID #. I don't know how to make multiple id's. I have no bad feelings toward anyone, and welcome the effort by the gumshoes out there, even if the direction is down the wrong path.
Crooks claim that he has unraveled the gold market with his quantiziation analysis worries me. His model seems a bit complex. I am familar with models of reality from my training -- the simplest model usually works the best. I will be happy if we can form some very basic conclusions from his work that the Kitco crowd can benefit from.
All: Our IBM dual risc box computer "go live" at work is going smoothly -- one hour already without meltdown. May be able to retire the old Dec system soon.

Australian Gold Mining Co. RGC down 53% in past year
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971106/market/markets3.html

Dr Mahathir said the officials would meet at the same time as finance ministers from the Association
of South East Asian Nations ( Asean ) , set to gather on 1-2 December in Kuala Lumpur.

``The recommendations will be circulated to the heads of government for approval immediately,''

Dr Mahathir said. ``The heads of government are expected to forward these to the IMF and the
World Bank.''

JTF
Here is some charts to verify where we are now.
The dow chart shows a 64% retrace from intrday highs to lows and back.
That should satisfy the fibo no.

http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Dowstt.gif

These two oscillators show the extreme readings.
They have moved through a full ping and now look ready for the next one. Notice the dip in unchanged nos.
The next ping should be larger than the last.

http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Nasdaq2.gif
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/NYSE2.gif

George
Thanks, as I said, I can't wait till I can do the same justice to the gold charts.
Off to inspect 'my precious'

Donald: What I sent last night was a post about ElNino - to Kitco, not directly to you. Sorry if I caused some confusion. The essence of it was that the regions with the worst currency crises are also regions with the worst El Nino effects. Perhaps the process was due in part to the El Nino worsening the economic state in the involved countries, making them more susceptible to currency crises. There is a medical analogy here -- if you get a cold, you are more likely to get pneumonia. I think we need to focus our attention on other countries severely affected by the El Nino -- such as Brazil!
As I told Jin last night, if I am right about this, his problems may last for another year. Our problems in the US won't peak until next year -- and I don't have a clue what they will be. Isn't it interesting that investing these days requires a multidisciplinary process?

Tried to read this article but it was noted to be time expired? Can someone state what it sais it 25 words or less.

Date: Wed Nov 05 1997 03:49
Auric ( Kitco ) ID#255151:

Read this column by Wm. Safire. Explosive stuff. http://headlines.yahoo.com/nytsafi.html

Could someone tell me what fibo is? Thanks

September factory orders highest on record. Consensus was a -0.3%, reality is +0.4%. The economy is alive and well.

September factory orders highest on record. Consensus was a -0.3%, reality is +0.4%. The economy is alive and well.

September factory orders highest on record. Consensus was a -0.3%, reality is +0.4%. The economy is alive and well.

September factory orders highest on record. Consensus was a -0.3%, reality is +0.4%. The economy is alive and well.

Jeeez! I just can't win with the Kitco server today!

Panda, no need to use good ol' PR approach - tell it a few times and everybody believes it. I HEAR YOU ;- ) ) )

Panda: The economy is alive and well but the financial system is not.
Don: Fibo is short for Fibonacci. The Fibonacci ratio 1.618

PANDA: Well, I liked your charts. You were doing them long before the
Nick's came on the scene. Who also are good contributors. The negativity of some posters is NOT appreciated! We contribute what we can & what we feel is of interest.

MIDDLE EAST. The feeling of the Middle East specialist, one based in Jerusalem, is that before this Saddam thing is resolved, there will be some form of military conflict of some form or another. That is the speculation. Nothing like gearing us up for the next run. The world hegemony maybe nearing a major crossroad.

Durable Goods were revised from down to UP a significant increase.

A.Goose--The article states that Saddam may have US in a bind. http://headlines.yahoo.com/nyt/05safi.html If things go sour in the Middle East or Europe, that isolationist streak in America may predominate. It has happened before in American History.

Panda, don't sweat it. If its worth saying once its worth saying four times. Your posts are generally well worth the read. Carry on soldier.

To All

I have to spring those pop quizes to make sure you
pay attention and dont get distracted by the various
retards who visit this site from time to time.

The answer to the question - EAST DAGGAFONTEIN

17 odd million shares out with a p/e ratio of less
than 5. I quote from Investek report. "Gold production
was up 6% on higher material treated and grades."
" The company participated in ERGO's hedging strategy
in view of the prevailing gold price. Negotiations
continue in Spain for a 60% interest in a small scale
gold operation. The deposit in open pittabele, low cost
oxide ore. WE have not adjusted our annual forecast of
210 cps. Based on the interim interest payment of 100
cps we are forecasting a 110 cps final payment. Based
on a 16% yield the share show value t0 1310 cps on a 12
month view."

For info, east dagga trades now at 8.6 rand cum dividend.
meaning that in about 6 weeks you get one rand paid
back - then over the following one year you get another
2.1 rands in the next 2 semi-annual payments.
I really like this combination of high earnings,
high dividends, a little blue sky in sunny Spain. But
for those of you who like to pay through the nose and get
no dividends ( and lately no earnings either ) - stick with
ABX - a masochist's gold mining company if ever there
was one..

TED: Thanks for posting your Cape Breton site. Wife & I thought it
was nice. Here is Perth & Swan River ( just up the road from our house )
http://www.wa.gov.au/watc/gfx/perth1.jpg

TORTFEASOR: Howdy. Long time, no hear! Good to see you back. Am desperate for a good joke. You don't value something until it is no longer around! It has been getting a bit dry lately, even though the quality has been very good.

Don
Fibo refers to Fibronacci.
A set of spiraling universal numbers that are found all throughout our world.
1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89 etc. There are also other ways to extrapolate these numbers.
They are found to hold true in shells, cyclones, leaves and charting.

George
The xau looks like it wants to breakout.
The Ultimate oscillator works well for this index.
Someone on avid pointed out this correlation today.
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Xau1.gif

Gold looks like it has put in a short term bottom but not as strong as xau.
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Gld1.gif

This chart is showing the prem for the week.
Notice the red ping prior to the last sell-off.
There looks to be another one forming.
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Prem12.gif

Hi Steve! Looks just like Cape Breton ( grin thing ) ...J.Disney: ABX DOES pay a dividend.....

Have little to contribute but have learned a hell of a lot in past month.
To all positive contributors-guys n' gals-congrats on making this ( in my
opinion ) the best on the WWW. Continue to contribute/educate. Thanks
muchos.

This article on the new G-15 is very interesting.
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971105/international/stories/group_1.html
Mahathir calling for currency rules, like stock markets have.
Need to examine if this hot money in their markets is drug related or not, which has not been taxed. Getting a bit close to the bone maybe?
Is this the beginnings of the new APEC currency bloc??

Cork: Are you really a "Bretoner"?? If so where do you live??

Seal Island Bridge. Hi!!!!

JTF=ANOTHER

Cork: e-mail me...

It seems the new algorithm is gold up in London and possibly rest of world and then it gets worked over in the U.S. especially during its last 45 minutes. Alot of effort seems to be going into holding it down. Is the spring coiled to its limits???

LAST week we witnessed the market making ALL-TIME RECORDS: greatest one-day DOW point loss in history on Monday, followed by the greatest one-day DOW point gain in history on Tuesday. It's my considered opinion that internal dynamics of the market do NOT have the required strength to cause such whipsaw action... there must be an external force exerting inordinate pressures. I may be too old-fashion, but I thought market manipulation was illegal - regardless who the culprit might be... or is it that some are above the LAW?! We received via email visual evidence there is indeed blatant and obscene stock market manaipulation. Here is the report with charts - comments and observations invited:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/market_manipulation.html

Hubacheck to resign as president and CEO of Agnico-Eagle ( AEM )

For Ted

Oh yeah Ted, gee thanks - I stand corrected - I got 8 cents on a 20
$ stock - Why bother - That's a bit under half a per cent. It was so small I missed it. Need strong glasses when you look for ABX earnings and dividends.

Team action reported in Time magazine. http://www.pathfinder.com/@@KpUtQwYATzDsqX3m/time/magazine/1997/dom/971110/business.greenspan_and.html>http://www.pathfinder.com/@@KpUtQwYATzDsqX3m/time/magazine/1997/dom/971110/business.greenspan_and.html

The Iraq situation once more brings to mind the "we were right there, why did we not finish the military/financial function?" The situation is now far worse then before.

If we had let Patton take Russia, if we had let MacArthur take China, if, if, if. The United States Government has repeatedly made stupid decisions.

These decisions have cost the world trillions of dollars and without question the human suffering is without measure in money.

American's sit back and pontificate, philosophize, while hundreds of millions look to us for help and faith. More often then not, our help never materializes, and their faith is shaken or erradicated.

We get cable, they get catastrophy.

Must read:
The ogre of deflation
The new bear.
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/97/1117/6011202a.htm

Yeah, I know the only good gold companies are in S.Africa....such a stable place! How's Winnie these days??

Hello Ted and Cork. Another Cape Bretoner reading and learning. What would the day be without a visit to Kitco. Following the posts for the last three months and amazed with the scope and accuracy here. My regards to Bart.

Try another url. http://www.pathfinder.com/@@mZMaTgYAUDBvy9ua/time/magazine/1997/dom/971110/business.greenspan_and.html>http://www.pathfinder.com/@@mZMaTgYAUDBvy9ua/time/magazine/1997/dom/971110/business.greenspan_and.html

Sorry the urls dont work. Time magazine has the news as cover story with a picture of Greenspan on the cover. Worth a read.

Hubacheck to remain on the Agnico Eagle board of directors.

Bill Clinton rehearsing his first Presidential speech.
http://www.collective.com.au/~cre8ive/commicn.gif

Ted-e mail fwd. Welcome Grasshopper. U can call me Ted. Same is a local
tel #.

@ GRASSHOPPER: And where might you be from? e-mail me...Disney: That thingy about ABX having a dividend was said deliberatly to get your STANDARD response on ABX...it worked!!....Not too much of a chip on your shoulder...naaaah....Am off ta Sydney for weekly shoppin trip and a stop @ the REAL CASINO ( who needs comex+ Wall Street?? )

I'm going to rip off the bulls last leg. The match is lit were just waiting for the last load of paper to push it all in.

ALL: There was some talk of diamonds awhile back, so I thought I'd relate this from an international diamond dealer I know. I asked him how business was and he said that ever since the Asian markets started to do poorly the demand for diamonds has dropped precipitously. Up until now the Asians were the biggest buyers of diamonds. He now has to cut prices a lot to keep going but it is apparantly getting very tough for him. I suspect that the problems over there have caused many more such financial effects - some that we wouldn't even think of.

Where can I find historical data on asian currencies?

I have been thinking about the "problem" the overhang in gold reserves constitutes for the price of gold. It seemed logical to me that governments should coin the stuff, possibly in ounce bars, with an established price of $500 per ounce. Then when the price of gold rises above $500, the coins will dissapear. I would love to establish a debt on which I paid no interest which would go away in time. Comments please.

Low flying space debri circling around Uranus..........

go gold!!

away...to pick some oranges...before the freeze.....C'mon Nio kid!!


hi spud

All: Does anyone know where I can access raw ElNino time series data? There is data going back to 1860. Don't assume that you won't be affected, just because you have not yet been affected. I think we will see the worst of it in the next twelve months or so - apparently the worst in 150 years!
If anyone sees a web site that explains the effect on North America or Europe - I would be very appreciative, and will let everyone on Kitco know what I find if it is relevant. The North America ElNino phenomenon appears to be murky in the minds of the experts.

Chechen president during visit to Turkey makes declaration of Independance from Russia ... as an ISLAMIC REPUBLIC vowing to go back to war with Russia if needed!

for Ted

Chip ?? shoulder ??? moi ??

May your winnings at the casino be more bountiful than an ABX
dividend. Oh sorry - must run - Winnie's trying to burn my house
down - Gee not again !

test

JTF, try:

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/el-nino/impacts.html

Re: Plat. I am out right now looking for an entry point...w/w

I like #7 regarding Plat.

The enemy invariably attacks on one of TWO occasions........
When you're ready
WHen you're NOT.....
let's be ready...it will move soon, no?

Yen is a dog but I still like it at this price. Go for deferred options perhaps ( spreads )

Mark is rocking and rolling. So is the Swiss. I think they are looking like fair weather ports for your money. David Mac. in San DIego is right about them...they may explode soooooooooooon. Be in not out. Buy the DIPS...buy the dips...

Jimmy Cliff is the artist to which I refer. Maybe he didn't write it but he sings it well. I am doing a search for the real artist.

away...to remove the obstacles in my way


The concept of a paradigm shift arose from studies of the history of science. It was given currency by T.S. Kuhn in his book, *The Structure of Scientific Revolutions*

Kuhn concluded that: "The successive transition from one paradigm to another via revolution is the actual developmental pattern of mature science....When an individual or group first produces a synthesis able to attract most of the next generations practitioners, the older schools gradually disappear. In part, their disappearance is caused by their members' conversion to the new paradigm. But there are always some men who cling to one or another of the old views, and they are simply read out of the profession which thereafter ignores, their work.

For example, human beings can see themselves as outside nature, whence they can observe it, dominate it and exploit it; or, by contrast, they can feel themselves to be an integral part of nature. One aspect of the change of direction to the future will be a shift from the first of these two paradigms to the second, i.e. from a scientific and economic view of nature to an ecological and spiritual view.

Again, the dominant paradigm in economic affairs may be one of maximising and expansion; or it may be one of sufficiency and balance. A shift from the first to the second of these two paradigms will also be part of the transition to the future.

Employment has been the way that industrial societies and the industrial age have organized work. More fortunate exceptions, but exceptions nonetheless, are people who earn an income from self-employment or receive an unearned income by way of interest or dividends on their own
private capital.

Money plays the central role in late industrial society that religion played in the late middle ages. Then the local church was the most prominent building in most villages; today the prime sites in every high street are occupied by branches of banks, and other financial concerns. The centres of medieval cities were dominated by cathedrals; today's city centres are dominated by the tower blocks of international banks.

Today's army of accountants, bankers, tax people, insurance brokers, stock jobbers, foreign exchange dealers and countless other specialists in money, is the modern counterpart of the medieval army of priests, friars, monks, pardoners, summoners and other specialists in religious
procedures and practices.

The theologians of the late middle ages have their counterpart in the economists of the late industrial age. Financial mumbo-jumbo holds us in thrall today, as religious mumbo-jumbo held our ancestors then.

The expanding role of money in the lives of people and in the organisation of society has been a characteristic feature of the industrial age.

I have a question for the coin dealers or buffs in the crowd. I was informed by a local dealer that to get the most bullion for the buck is to purchase 90% silver U.S. coins minted pre 1965. The cost is $3.62 for $1.00 face value of the coins. ( silver spot $4.87 ) My question is what is the weight of this $1.00 face value of coins and is this a good investment of hard assests. Information on subject appreciated.

Also try:

http://ingrid.ldgo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Indices/ensomonitor.html

JTF: Search "Excite" for El Nino - a wealth of information. Someone at Kitco a while back posted a URL for the US Gov't site which displays a daily EL Nino effects map of the world. I had to redo my hard drive and lost it in the process. I would be grateful for that URL again if anyone still has it. If I have time today I will go thru the Excite offerings to try to find it.

THE SKY IS FALLING !!!!!!!
THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!!!
OR SHOULD I SAY WILL BE FALLING ON NOV 17TH.

A STORM OF COSMIC PROPORTIONS IS COMING. A Lenoids meteor shower sometime in November should be beautiful for sky watchers, though downwright dangerous for space craft circling the Earth.
The last time the Lenoids stormed as hard as expected this month was in 1966 , when astronomer Charles Worley tallied more than 100,00 meteors in less than an hour.
" It looked like the stqars were raining, " Worley recalled.
Astronomers are pretty sure the Lenoids will come storming back in mid-November. they just aren't certain which November.
It could be around dawn on Nov. !7 this year, in which case the United States would get a chance to view the fireworks. Or it could be in 1998 ( a bit more likely ) . when Asia would get the the front-row seats--or 1999, when it would be Europe's and Africa's turn.

Astronomers are not quite certain.

One thing is for certain though ...Kitcoites have been claiming that the sky is falling ( or at least would be ) ...now here is the proof for you sceptics..just check the NASA web site!

Thanks for info on EAST DAGGAFONTEIN MINES LIMITED. Am having problems looking up a quote for it though. It IS listed at ADR CITY under the symbol EDGMY ( http://www.stockcity.com/adr/sector/precious.html ) but does not show any links to it ( and yes I know they are not current in the symbols dept. ) Any additional info would be greatly appreciated!!!

Does anyone know what the deal is with ECO today ... falling like a rock and way below it's ( all time ) low ... ???

I thought some of you might find the following articles from the Indonesian press interesting.

Former German Chancellor says Asians will shift currency reserves from Dollar to Euro

http://www.indonesiatimes.com/news/national/0511/Asian.countries.shtml


"Asian Currency woes won't spoil Japan's recovery". I didn't realize they were in the midst of a recovery.

http://www.Indonesiatimes.com/news/business/0511/Asian.currency.shtml

PrivateInvestor where did you find this story about Chechen president?

President clinton cancelled the U-2 flight over Iraq today. No reason was given.

BillD: Thanks for the ElNino stuff - will look at it tonight. I think the USA will get more than just a few coastal California houses disppearing in mudslides next year.
Strad Master: I think you hit the nail on the head with diamonds -- people from countries currently in the throes of a major currency crisis will have little discretionary income for diamonds, or even for gold.
All: To the best of my knowledge, I am not ANOTHER, but the attention does not bother me! I just wish I knew what he/she knows so that I could tell you -- though I don't know how much more we could learn anyway. Those of you who know me know that I would have no need to hide behind another ID. Aurator -- see what you did!! Kitco bandwidth will be filled up with a bunch of useless posts for several days! Don't worry - I have no ill feelings -- JUST AS LONG AS YOU FIND TED's WHALES!

GARRETT....Each $ of 90% 10 cent, 25 cent and 50 cent pieces contains .715 oz. of pure silver. A 90% bag of $1,000.00 face then would cointain 715 oz. of pure silver. They are very liquid and tradeable. They change in value in direct proportion to the price of silver. Your dealer is in the ballpark of the right price. He would buy over the counter at about 2.75 times face. The big narketmakers today paying about 3.45 X face for bags, so 3.61 X face is sort of retailish, but not bad.

2 excellent El Nino maps on one URL
http://www.iinet.net.au/~standeyo/News_Files/UN_Images/OTIS_971031_BA.gif

BillD, Echo took a restructuring charge which walloped 3Q earnings -$ 2.36. On the other hand they lowered their cost of mining and increased silver production a lot. See the URL and tell me what you think:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/11/04/and_eco_y_1.html

I have 4 bags of junk silver and think they are a good investment
at this time. A $1000 face value bag has 715 ounces of silver in
it. I guess you would divide by .9 to get the actual weight but
not sure. Hope this helps.

Thanks, I read that news yesterday ... did not look so bearish to me!! But, Someone is really dumping today ... over 850,000 shares traded by noon EST .. Lots of selling ... How low can it go??

All:

A small casualty in the S&P wars as our stops have been hit.

BillD -- Someone may have posted this before, but it is worth reading. Contains stories on ECO and others. Ouch!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/stwatch.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

BillD ( @ECO ) ID#258427:
ECO earnings came out yesterday, I took a quick look didnt look as bad as last year. I have owned ECO off an on for years. I buy it at 4 - 6 and sell at 11 - 13 +. I feel that it just indicates a bottom for Gold. How much lower can these companies go without someone buying them.

What I am really worried about is the strong possibility of a deflationary environment world wide. ECO has a lot of Silver which also is an industrial metal. I talked to a friend yesterday, and I ask her, if her grandfather had managed to come out of the depression with a million, what would it be worth today? She said that her grandfather had a million going into the depression and came out with 1/3 of it, and that he was invested in a copper company. She said evidently the demand for copper dropped dramatically. Has anyone got any charts on copper and other industrial metals? I am concerned about investments in mining cos. Gold and other natural resources.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/11/04/and_eco_y_1.html

Well, I did my homework. The best prices among the local shops as quoted over the phone this AM--US 1oz. Gold Eagle-$338, 1oz.Silver Eagle-$7.32, 1oz.Silver bullion-$5.82, 1oz.Gold bullion-$332, Junk Silver--$1000 face value of quarters, halves, and dimes ( all pre-1965 ) , is about 720 oz. Silver. Quoted at $3550. This works out to just under $5 per ounce of Silver. Total weight of coins is about 60 pounds.

BillD -- Echo Bays senior unsecured debt has been placed on credit watch with negative implications.

Strad:

The world is treating me quite well. We had our best quarter ever at the funds. The wife and the little one are doing great. I may have to ask you for music teaching advice because the little one seems fascinated by it all. He's got one of those little xylophones which are activated by keys ( xylopiano? ) and is in love with it. To my astonishment he does not just bash away making noise but picks out the keys to hit very carefully and plays little five note tunes. Lesley and I of course applaud loudly at the conclusion of each of these passages and Spence grins from ear to ear.

I have never thanked you for the Tchaicovsky tape. Its great. You are one hell of a fiddle player. When are you going to put out a CD?

Hope that all is well in Stradland.

I would have emailed this to you but I have been having some technical problems in that area and am unsure it would get through. When my email is better I will send a more extend piece. Have a great day. D.A.

Thanks ... ouch!!

Last quote that I have on ECO is 3 11/16 on 1.12 million shares. 195X116 ( bid/ask size )

I have always been taught that actions speak loader than words...with that in mind I ask D.A. & George Cole and of you out there in Kitco cybeer space lurker land to watch Alan Greenspans actions and not his words. I think his actions speak volumes....I hope for all of your sake that I am wrong... but I think not...AG has fired up the money supply because he is deadly affraid of the coming worldwide DEFLATION ...most of the youngsters posting to this site do not recall prior bear markets much less periods of DEFLATION.You can bet AG remembers and has extensively studied deflationary periods...so have most of our citizens who have lived through a deflationary period... We may all soon get some first hand experience.
Just look at the price of your precious gold!

DA
By the look of the prem they just blew away a lot of stops and bears

Nick:

Glad our stops were tight. Looks like a bit of panic on the upside. I always hate when the stops get taken out on our discretionary trades, mostly because it would really suck to get picked off at the top. This one at least just blew right through. The other part of this that bugs me is that I will undoubtedly have to scroll through reams of posts tonight searching for something close to civility. Such is the life of a trader.

Is it possible that the paradigm has changed, a new algorithm is in place, the game has been reset, and winning or losing depends on adjusting what we watch to align with the new set?.

A PUZZLE ( ? ) - CHALLENGE ( ! )
Holding in abeyance political and moral judgments, I ask you to consider the following points, investigate them at the URLs provided, weigh the evidence and share your conclusions with the Kitco folks.

1. There is in place a functioning, de facto global currency, and it is the SDR.
Http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/sup0996/10sdr.htm

A. The IMF website has been radically altered since first investigated
in 93/94.
1 ) At this time, there is a clear, unequivocal statement that
the purpose of the IMF/World Bank is to ensure stable currency ( ies ) .
2 ) There is a lengthy bibliography of decisions by the Executive Directors/ Board on such matters as: settlement of financial obligations; uses in pledges; uses in forward operations; uses in donations; uses in loans; uses in the performance of financial obligations.
3 ) There is a clear, unequivocal statement that the SDR is to be used in private and public transactions ( although, at this time, there are only 15 vested institutions authorized to act as agents ) .
4 ) If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...

B. From the March 1996 IMF Seminar , in Greenspan-speak ( there is obviously a hi-level course where this is taught--probably at Davos ) : The SDR does not appear LIKELY to become the PRINCIPAL reserve asset of the international monetary system . ( Caps mine, of course. )
1 ) There is an imperative obligation to maintain credere, belief.
All money is a matter of belief. ( Adam Smith, Paper Money )
2 ) Given this obligation, WB/IMF is obligated to operate in such a manner that markets are not roiled, and citizens are unconcerned ( or unknowing, preferably both ) .
3 ) The above considerations place upon us the obligation to look at what is being done as well as what stated intentions are.
4 ) If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...

C. The currencies included in the current basket, which are those of the FIVE MEMBER COUNTRIES WITH THE LARGEST EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES DURING 1990- 94.... The current basket will be in effect until December 31, 2000.
1 ) Unless they change the rules ( always possible with governments ) this means that China will be a basket currency ( no pun intended folks ) in 2000. ( Just in time for Y2K )
2 ) The above means that China will be obligated to have a convertible currency.
3 ) The Chinese government announced in 92 or 93 that they intended to link their currency to gold. Did they mean it?

To Be Continued....

tolerant1:
right on, your post of 11:04. I've been ranting about those decisions
forever. Strong but stupid U. S. of A

German press castigates French bid for Euro bank presidency
BONN, Nov 5 ( AFP ) - German newspapers on Wednesday lambasted a
French proposal that the governor of the Bank of France, Jean-Claude
Trichet, become the first president of the future European central
bank.
France announced the candidature of Trichet, in a challenge to
Wim Duisenberg of The Netherlands, in a statement on Tuesday.
Duisenberg is the head of the European Monetary Institute, the
forerunner of the future central bank, and is widely considered to
have the support of many EU countries, including Germany.
In an editorial, the economic newspaper Handelsblatt went as far
as to describe the development as a nightmare.
It wrote: "The nightmarish scenario feared by the valiant
champions of the euro ( in Germany ) is now a reality: France wants to
put the future European central bank under French management."
"This ultimatum from Paris to the Germans immediately before a
visit to Paris by Chancellor Kohl...is a great shock," it added.
Kohl was to meet informally Wednesday evening in Paris with
President Jacques Chirac and Prime Minister Lionel Jospin.
It wondered aloud whether France "wants to risk open
confrontation without taking into account dubious ( public ) opinion
in Germany" where two-thirds of the population was opposed to
replacement of the mark by a weaker euro.

Today Russian president Boris Yeltsin discharged one of the most powerful figures in Russian establishment - Deputy Chef of National Security Council B. Berezovsky. Russian Jew, Berezovsky has started his business in late 80s at virtually nothing by importing western second hand cars. Today his net worth is about UD$ 3 Billion and he is at 97th place at Forbes listing of the worlds 200 richest people. His empire includes major TV channel, several major newspapers, banks, oil business and much more. He is also said to be a private manager of Yeltsins daughter family, whose husband is a director of Aeroflot, the biggest Russian airline. Event was initiated by two deputy prime ministers, Chubais and Nemtsov, who convinced Yeltsin, that current position of Berezovsky in power structures damages presidents image.

For The LAN MAN.

Dagga isnt REALLY a mine - it is like ERGO - it treats slimes and surface material and tailings from other mining operations. It has some
kind of big joint venture with Implats and Ergo recovering PGMs. Ive
bought a lot of it on the theory that it cant go down much because of
its ungodly earnings and yield and will go up on a windfall with a gold
increase because of its hoard of aboveground stock. In the meantime - 25
to 29 % yield is not too shabby.
Also curious, why cant a man in the US simply open an account with
a broker in RSA. There isnt any exchange regulation that would stop you
here and it's no problem getting money back out or divs either. Also
on Dagga the div has been structured so that it is "INTEREST" and therefore no RSA div withholding would apply -
The spreads on ADRs are rip offs - fees here are not mad - I run
offshore trust here sometimes and have no problem whatsoever taking them in or out. Dealing here is a dream and spreads and double fees are
avoided. I cant think of any real reason it couldnt be done.

DA
Never feels good to be removed.
I'm still holding just for a bit longer.
Would like to see a short term top in the next couple of days.
The downside action from there should be more interesting.
More of a better day to take profits on longs, I think.

Another; while they concentrated fully on the small number of shark attack down-under the larger fatalities occur via the box jellyfish. Little known amongst the locals or foreigners is that the end comes swift with that which is not only not suspected but not even known..

call on x7450 when u can ... IBB

Morning private. I posted the "Full text" last of AG's comments last Wednesday before congress. He seems far more terrified of inflation, than deflation. Only God and AG knows why.

Yes Sir. You ( or you're actions regarding the mrkets ) may very well have opened the floodgates for a certain narcissitic rambler. Oh Joy...I think tonight I'll search for a rerun of Laverne & Shirley or Saved by the Bell, it's got to be better than what's in store.

away...to the mirror to gaze lovingly


Web site for SDR http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/sdr/sdr.htm

Nick: I do not see the XAU taking off on the upside anytime soon. The way I see things, it will either build a base around current levels or plunge to new lows in the near future. Note that XAU has regained only a very small percentage of its recent 20% decline. Bullion, by contrast, has regained about half its loss. Very bad XAU action by my reckoning

Panda, re your 08:59. I'm not sure what you meant by your post. I posted specifics at 01:23, and 01:48 to you. There refer to all posts of specifics, which cover more actual personal trades and calls than I have seen from anyone else on this forum. Don't know how much more detail I could give you without an exhaustive listing of every time, date, amount. Also please refer to the 02:42 post for reasons why I don't want to respond to any "baiting".

As to discussions being possible/not possible, I advocate my opinions agressively and perhaps over stridently at times. If it's annoying, I apologize, however, many have stated that a diversity of views is welcome here, even if they are not of the Monolithic GoldBug variety. I will try not to engage in hornbloawing, but I do relate to Hepcat's frustrations with making good calls, based on sound fundamentals, with a very high accuracy rate, and yet being deemed "Non serious" and not a "Good poster" etc. etc. due to style, not substance. However, such debates are over as far as I'm concerned, and serve no further purpose.

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Busy at work today -- can't remember if I posted my thanks for your response on the time of the next bounce. I covered myself with options - puts and calls so I am benefitting a little from the rally. It is possible that the "lock step" is related to a "bull panic", rather than the prelude to another correction. AG will do something if we reach 8000+ on the dow -- surprise rate increase Nov 17? What he does initially might not be enough to stop this rally. Please take care!
Right now I am wondering if I should sell what's left of my gold stocks, and buy them back after they bottom.
If you post your e-mail address, I will send my preliminary thoughts to you about Dr. Crook. So far I have two of Colleen's octal stream pages, and they are very interesting, but complicated. Lots of conclusions, but no rationale. I think this material will bore ( or frustrate ) the Kitcoites unless we can decipher some of what he did first.

Hah. A leopard does not change its spots.

JOHN DISNEY: Hi! Are you in Jhbg? Possibillities of fire with Winnie around! Mbeki's speech saying Indonesians found the route 'racial redistrubution' smacks of incitement to me.

Listen to Magnus at this moment- re Crooks...interesting attacks

JTF, Nick@A- see mail- many SMALL pages..[so proud of myself]

Thanks for your e-mail. I will wait till I get home to download because my work computer is not equipped for PDF files -- much too slow.

Thank you LGB for turn-around. Take your place amongst the honoured & respected. {:-}} Take care.

ALL: Does anyone have comments on the RCM offering $310 bullion price guaranteed despite price fluctuations ???

George Cole -- XAU is going down. ECO shake-out will lead to more shake-outs as gold investors look under the rugs to see who else is in horrible shape. These mining stocks could go a LOT lower than anyone thought possible. I thought the bottom would be the 1993 lows. ECO has just proven me wrong. Looks like it is heading for 3 1/2 today. I think the 1993 low was $4. ECO is doing a number on the HUI also. ECO is down about 9.3 % ( last trade @ 3 5/8 ) right now.

LGB -- Example; Entered position on 10/28, 900 shares SWC at 19 1/16::: Took position off on 11/5/97 ( 900shares ) SWC at 20 1/2.

A sincere thank you Colleen. We don't have many females on the forum and I appreciate the addition of your posts.

Hi JTF: They're no longer PDF's - they're JPEGS. Does this help?

Does anyone know what happened to gold stocks during the 1929 crash. Did they go down with the market and then recover? Did they even recover? If the market crashes, would gold bullion, gold funds, gold stocks, or the XAU index be the best investment? Just wondering what others think?

Poster at 16:40. Dost thou refer to LGB or Hepcat with the Leopard reference?

Hello Colleen

Not likely I would be in Jhbg ( under any circumstances ) - I am in Paarl-
an activist for a FREE Western Cape
Assume Mbeki latest crapola in today's Business Day which still unread. He also said something about nationalizing swimming pools. Wait till they find out he's been on Anglo's payroll for the last 30 years.
The Cape is great - we're the guys that refused Tutu the keys to the
city. Brown power - that's the watchword.

Westley: http://:www.gold-eagle.com

An article to get you started. You should see it listed on the above page.

LGB: Is your background in DSP, FFTs, or switching re: LOR ? Just curious.

Westley, can't speak with authority on 1929, but in the 1987 crash I got killed on Homestake Mining, the Gold Blue chip stock of North America. Lost about 40% of it's value.

For the Panda -

Just an idea that cant miss -
take long puts on my favorite stock ABX, and long calls on ASA.

Can I be THAT wrong ???

ALL: Not all is miserable in the mining world. I own all with the exception of ALTIF. Can't afford everything at once. I am also still into silver stocks, PAASF SSRIF FSR.V ASGMF - Some gold stocks you may wish to look into:

OROP - Oro Peru

DROOY - Durban

TNX - Tan Range Exploration

IPJ.TO - International Pursuit

ALTIF - Altair

JDisney: Thanks for the info!

WetGold: The first thing an associate said to me after I showed him the article on the Mounty was "Sure they guaranteed it at US$310.- they obviously know what the future has in store for the US$!"

George S. Cole -- At some point the gold stocks will be so cheap, after the consolidation takes place, that value investors will be buying. I think the price of gold has become somewhat irrelevant to the mining shares now ( A big assumption here is that gold doesn't go through the floor in to the sub-basement ) . The damage that has been done, due to the low gold prices and poor planning/management of the mines, will be glaringly obvious in the next quarter or two. So even if gold holds at these prices, most miners will be shooting the shareholders with bad news bullets of one kind or another. The panic selling may yet be coming. I hope I'm wrong....

On the bright side ( ? ) , those mining outfits with deep pockets may go shopping for bargins in the ground.

My background is in Electronic countermeasure equipment for Military aircraft, and more recently Sattelite Communications. Primarily in RF Engineering and Program management functions.A very wide variety of RF system type devices. DTO's, DRO's, Channel Amps, Downconverters, Upconverters, Mixers, TWTA's, Hybrids, IC semiconductors of all types, etc etc. It's a rather lengthy list. Been involved in virtually every facet of the RF and Semiconductor biz. in the Silicon valley area.

test

Panda: If you want a stock that already got mashed, restructured and is ready for anything to be thrown at it I would take a long, long look at DROOY-Durban - I think you will be very pleased the further you look into them.

However, many Mining co's. sold ahead with multi year contracts at $400 and above, and low production costs, yet they seem to be performing no better than those who didn't have the foresight. How do we account for this?

John Disney -- Now that's one order that wouldn't cause my broker to be laughing at me, shorting ABX... :- )

This is a concept that they can understand, short gold and gold producers.

FWIW -- ECO at 3 11/16 on 1.50 million shares, was at 3 9/16, serious tug of war at these prices. Buyers appear to be coming out of no where. B/A size 310 X 100

LGB: Thanx for the info. I ask because I have a similar background and have been researching your posts from the past to find a pattern relative to the Engineering genre. I had worked on USH-17 and Aegis in the early stages of RADAR as well as switching networks.

I greatly appreciate you and many other posting in this forum - there are a great number of specialties and professions that span this universe. I have never worked as a trader or held any position in the financial world - but I have been been ( luckily ) greatly successful.

It has taken many years to acquire the material elements that one needs for personal financial success. Gold/silver/platinum, stock options ( futures ) , et al are all a part of the total mix. One last observation: I don't think anyone on this forum is single minded enough to carry only one financial vehicle - we all move back/forth between the hard/soft camps. Let's all learn from one another - I know I have. THANKS ALL.

My point exactly....What he said was one thing ....what he did, and is currently another....does it remind you of you countermeasures work at all....deversion! he knows that the masses hang on his every word but very few take the time to think things out.

EXample: AG fired upon ....auto reactions ....copuntermeasures in the form of plausable denial story of we did not even see the deflation on the radar screen...it looked like inflation...he understands that he could never use the D word during congressional testamony... it would sent all world markets into a tail spin.

A friendly warning to all whom it may concern: LGB is a loose cannon on the deck. Flirt with him at your own peril.

You're thinking of a different LGB. Buy Silver Coin, preferably U.S. 90% Mercury's, Walking Liberty Halves, Morgan and Peace dollars.

LGB RE: Your 14:10 and 14:16. Believe me when I say that I am not attempting to stir up all the bitter tet a tet that has gone on recently, but after reading your 14:10 and 14:16, and realising that you are both an intelligent person and CAN post both politely and intelligently, I cannot help but think that all your recent run-ins with kitco participants were mostly due to your labelling anyone and everyone who did not agree with your particular ideas and standpoints as "morons". This is definitely not proper or appropriate and if you have now deceased from this childish behaviour, I think that most will let bygones be bygones. Bon chance mon ami!

LGB -- Stillwater still has me miffed in their handling of the PGMs. They foreward sold too far ahead, with a precious metal group that has very good demand from industry. Stupid, stupid, stupid! Six months wasn't enough for these guys. Getchell gold will probably revalue their gold holdings, that should be interesting. Agnico-Eagle is a low cost producer ( ~$213/oz. ) , but wall street doesn't like the management. So the stock whithers on the vine.

Echo B/A was as high as 500/50. Bid was higher than ask most of the way down. It's my fault really, ( b4 I read your post ) I averaged down a bit at 3 7/8...kiss of death when I buy'em:- ) )

Roebear -- I've tried catching falling knives before,... Take it from me, it's really tough on your fingers. Ouch! I now let the safe bounce on the ground a few times before I try to take a crack at it! I may miss the bottom, ( I figured my bottom fishing is at best, only 10% successful ) , but I try to catch the trend. The only thing worse than gold stocks, are tech stocks. And before anyone jumps on me, let me say that the techs scream in either direction. You never know when or what is the bottom or top. To boot, it's usually a fleeting moment too! With gold, it's easy! The pit is bottomless, almost.......... EB, is that you down there?

1998---YEAR OF DESTINY

"To the Illuminati, this is a year for which they've long waited--the TRIPLE WITCHING of the Beast year. In occult numerology, 3 ( the number of the unholy trinity ) times 666 ( the number of the Beast ) equals 1998! In 1998, America will be 222 years old, counting from 1776, the year of the Declaration of Independence. Again, this is cause for celebration among the satanist elite because 2+2+2=6, the number of incarnate evil.

William ( the will of I AM ) Jefferson Clinton ( 6 letters ) , unquestionably the most wicked and diabolical chief executive n the history of this nation, is the 42nd President of the United States. The occultists add the two digits in 42 ( 4+2 ) to produce the sacreligious number 6. All this adds up to a President who represents the number 6, the nation's birthday representing 6 and the arrival of the triple witching year, 1998, which contain THREE 666's ( 3x666=1998 ) !

Illuminists, Satan worshippers, occultists, and New Agers everywhere on earth are planning momentous celebrations to mark this triple witching year, 1998. Global Rainbow Gatherings will be held to connect spiritual leaders, tribal elders, and sacred sites worldwide for internet telepathic meditation at exactly 22 minutes past 2:00 AM ( 222 ) on Feb. 22 ( 222 ) lasting for 2 hours and 22 minutes ( 222 ) . Add the numbers together and you have 666!

In 1998, the UN will conduct a World Conference on GLOBAL GOVERNANCE. The goal is to usher in a One World, Fascist Order for the New Millenium. Occultic New Agers will also hold a World Congress on Illumination in Tuscon, AZ. Israel will mark its 50th year anniversary as a nation....The year 1998 is the 6th year after Bill Clinton's intial election to the US Presidency, and it will be 6 years since Waco. This same year, 1998, the UN will celebrate its 51st birthday ( 5+1=6 ) .

...Many other dramatic events are planned for 1998--events that will rock the world and change your life forever!" ( Quoted from The Intelligence Examiner, Nov. 1997 )

After reading all this, does anyone here at Kitco still doubt there's a global world government, satancially inspired, being planned to enslave the world under the yoke of a fascist dictator? 1998 will definitely be a year to watch your investments and your constitutional liberties!

Wednesday November 5 1:44 PM EST

Need to cooperate on SE Asia stability-Summers

WASHINGTON, Nov 5 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said on Wednesday there was an
urgent need for international cooperation to maintain stability in Southeast Asia, adding that the involvement of the
International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) was key.

``The difficulties in South-east Asia -- and the problems in emerging markets generally -- point up the urgent need for us to
think about how we can best cooperate to maintain financial stability,'' Summers told a conference in New York, according to a
copy of his speech made available in Washington, in an oblique reference to the idea of an Asia fund aimed at preventing crises
in the region.

Adding that ``financial regionalism based on notions of regional reliance in terms of crises also carries real risks,'' he
continued: ``This is an important part of why we believe it to be essential that the IMF should play a central role.''

Summers said the main risks of such ``regionalism'' consisted of reducing the resources available for future crises, leaving the
system vulnerable to cross-continental crises, encouraging the emergence of blocs and excluding nations who lack powerful
neighbours.

Japan's Vice Finance Minister Eisuke Sakakibara, seen as the architect of the Asia Fund idea, is currently in the United States to
drum up support for his plan, which will be discussed at a meeting of deputy finance ministers of Asian nations and the United
States in Manila on Nov 18.

The U.S. administration has been hesitant to back the plan, cautioning that it may create moral hazard problems and reduce the
United States' influence in the region.

Summers noted that the IMF's ability to respond to financial crises had recently been beefed up, but that it was not enough ``to
rest on where we are''.

``There is no question that we will need to consider ways of giving a more effective voice to emerging economies who have
become such important global economic players,'' he said.

``I look forward to constructive and active dialogue with these countries in Manila and other fora in the months to come,'' he
added.

Summers was speaking at a conference organized by the Japan Society, which was also attended by Sakakibara.

The deputy Treasury chief added that weak financial systems, burdened by dubious assets, had been the key factor creating the
financial crisis that has swept Southeast Asia.

``The key factor in enabling this excessive build-up of assets of uncertain worth was the underlying weakness of the domestic
financial system in these countries,'' he said.

``The very weakness of the financial system in some cases has further exacerbated the evential crisis by discouraging prompt
adjustment of monetary policy in the lead-up to the crisis -- and complicating the policy response after the crisis has begun,'' he
added.

I'm just wondering which leads: PM futures leads spot or the other way around? Is it possible to do a chart comparing the difference and determining which leads which, how far in advance and how much influence is exerted? This is not mearly speculative.

Also same questions about equities. In this case we have seen some blantant "leading" or ramping. I am questioning the relationships and when a transfer is made in leadership from sell pice vs futures price.

Am wondering if this is happening on a minute by minute basis rather than longer term.

Panda, yes I have been following SWC, because I own some Platinum and was considering a small position in the shares. it doen't seem to move much in tight coupling with some of the volatile moves in the PGM's does it?

Golden, thank you for your Illuminati post. It gives me an unparralled opportunity to test my new resolve of posting no more condescending, confrontational, hyper critical, etc. messages!

Allen, try http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes and in the dialog box type XAU.X /GC7Z or GC7Z /XAU.X This will give you the relationship between the XAU index and Dec. Gold. You may select any period ( minutes, day, week, month, quarter ) by typing a comma folloowing the symbols and then a number ( for minutes ) or D, W, M, or Q. Make sure that the volume indicator is turned OFF ( use the Chart button of the applet. ) Good luck.

Wednesday November 5 2:15 PM EST

POLL - Fed watchers predict no rate hike until '98

By Dawn Xavier

NEW YORK, Nov 5 ( Reuters ) - The Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC ) will keep short-term interest rates steady at its
November 12 policy-setting meeting, and probably stand pat until 1998, according to economists in a Reuters poll.

None of those polled expected the Fed will raise rates at the November meeting, and only two out of 25 Fed watchers believed
the central bank would hike rates at its December 16 meeting. That differs from an October 24 survey in which nine of 29
economists called for a fourth-quarter rate increase.

Turbulence in stock markets worldwide may have led to the change of heart.

``To some extent, the stock market's drop has done the Fed's dirty work for it,'' said Gordon Richards, chief economist of the
National Association of Manufacturers.

Richards said declines in the stock market could prevent the economy from overheating, and push it back to a less overvalued
level. But the Fed was unlikely to raise interest rates by year-end in view of two recent developments, he added.

``One of them of course, is world financial markets are very fragile at this point ... the other is that in the third quarter
( growth ) report, the inflation rate came in at 1.4 percent ... that's the lowest since the early 1960's,'' Richards said.

Indeed, both the price index and the implicit deflator rose a mere 1.4 percent in the third quarter. The price index printed its
smallest gains since 1992, while the deflator registered its narrowest advance since 1964.

``It's hard to imagine there being any justification for raising rates, given that the inflation rate is not only very low, but it's
continuing to decelerate,'' Richards added.

But John McAuley, an economist with Wilkinson Boyd Capital Markets, one of the two participants who predicted a rise of 25
basis points by year-end, disagreed.

``If nothing else had happened, I think that the conditions are there to justify a move now,'' McAuley said. ``But I think with the
turmoil in the financial markets last week ... the Fed has to stabilize rather than destabilize the markets,'' he added.

McAuley pointed to tight labor markets, and an increase in the Employment Cost Index as indicators that could sway the Fed
toward tightening. He also said a December move would be advantageous, putting some distance between the move and
Greenspan's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony in mid-February.

``It's not a major obstacle, but it certainly creates a scenario in which ( Greenspan ) would prefer to be able to point to just two
moves in 1997,'' McAuley said.

But Richard Koss, an international economist with MFR Inc, took the viewpoint of the majority of respondents, foreseeing a
steady 5.50-percent fed funds rate until next year.

``At this point you need an excuse, I think, to tighten, which would come more than likely in the form of a couple of months of
strong consumer spending, and that seems unlikely before the end of the year,'' Koss said.

The central bank last raised interest rates in March of this year, when it ratcheted up the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to
its current 5.50 percent.

Full results of the survey follow:

Participant Fed funds post- Fed funds post-
Nov 12 mtg Dec 16 mtg
Aubrey Lanston 5.50 5.50
Bank of Tokyo 5.50 5.50
Citicorp 5.50 --
DRI/McGraw Hill 5.50 5.50
First Chicago 5.50 5.50
G.A. Pedersson 5.50 5.50
Harris Bank -- 5.75
J.P. Morgan 5.50 5.50
Lehman Brothers 5.50 5.50
MCM 5.50 5.50
Merrill Lynch 5.50 5.50
MFR 5.50 5.50
MMS Int'l 5.50 5.50
Nat'l Assoc Manu 5.50 5.50
Nikko Securities 5.50 5.50
Nomura 5.50 5.50
PaineWebber 5.50 5.50
PNC Bank 5.50 5.50
Primark 5.50 5.50
Sanwa 5.50 5.50
Standard & Poors 5.50 5.50
US Chamber of Commerce 5.50 5.50
UBS Securities 5.50 5.50
Wilkinson Boyd 5.50 5.75
Yamaichi 5.50 5.50
REUTERS

JOHN DISNEY- I was in the Fair Cape last week- at Lanzerac. We could have had dnner in Franschoek. Do most of the rebels come from the Cape?
You seem to know a lot about the local markets- email me, pl.?

Newmont mining approaching it's 3 year low, off approx. 2% today. This in spite of being a very strong performer amongst the Gold group with production costs of approx. $188/Oz. and strong 3rd quarter. very bearish for XAU and Gold.

Microsoft Addresses Justice Department Accusations
REDMOND, Wash.
Oct. 23, 1997.

In direct response to accusations made by the Department of Justice,
the Microsoft Corp. announced today that it will be acquiring the
federal government of the United States of America for an undisclosed
sum. "It's actually a logical extension of our planned growth", said
Microsoft chairman Bill Gates, "It really is going to be a positive
arrangement for everyone".

Microsoft representatives held a briefing in the oval office of the
White House with U.S. President Bill Clinton, and assured members of
the press that changes will be "minimal". The United States will be
managed as a wholly owned division of Microsoft. An initial public
offering is planned for July of next year, and the federal government
is expected to be profitable by "Q4 1999 at latest", according to
Microsoft president Steve Ballmer.

In a related announcement, Bill Clinton stated that he had "willingly
and enthusiastically" accepted a position as a vice president with
Microsoft, and will continue to manage the United States government,
reporting directly to Bill Gates. When asked how it felt to give up
the mantle of executive authority to Gates, Clinton smiled and
referred to it as "a relief". He went on to say that Gates has a
"proven track record", and that U.S. citizens should offer Gates their
"full support and confidence". Clinton will reportedly be earning
several times the $200,000 annually he has earned as U.S. president,
in his new role at Microsoft.

Gates dismissed a suggestion that the U.S. Capitol be moved to Redmond
as "silly", though did say that he would make executive decisions for
the U.S. government from his existing office at Microsoft
headquarters. Gates went on to say that the House and Senate would "of
course" be abolished. "Microsoft isn't a democracy", he observed,
"and look how well we're doing". When asked if the rumored attendant
acquisition of Canada was proceeding, Gates said, "We don't deny that
discussions are taking place".

Microsoft representatives closed the conference by stating that United
States citizens will be able to expect lower taxes, increases in
government services and discounts on all Microsoft products.

About Microsoft:
Founded in 1975, Microsoft ( NASDAQ "MSFT" ) is the worldwide leader in
software for personal computers, and democratic government. The
company offers a wide range of products and services for public,
business and personal use, each designed with the mission of making it
easier and more enjoyable for people to take advantage of the full
power of personal computing and free society every day.

About the United States:
Founded in 1789, the United States of America is the most successful
nation in the history of the world, and has been a beacon of democracy
and opportunity for over 200 years. Headquartered in Washington,
D.C., the United States is a wholly owned subsidiary of Microsoft
Corporation.

Well, down we go. The drop in the XAU off the
full moon cycle indicated that a good size
downmove would ensue. Now the new moon is
hinting at the the same, so quite soon the
XAU should continue its accelleration downward.
We wont have a chance for a turnaround until
the next full moon.

Durban Deep is up 3/16 today which is not so bad since its a $2 dollar stock. Jim Blanchard's newsletter just devoted a whole issue to Durban which is, I presume, the reason why its up today. John Disney, is Durban Deep a good leveraged play for an increase in gold price or do you like some other S. Africans better.

But Golden Cheese head, I though Ronald ( 6 letters ) Wilson ( 6 letters )
Reagan ( 6 letters ) was the great satan after all his name was 666 and
it was during his administration that bar coding, the true mark of satan
swept the land.

Panda: You are absolutely right my friend! This is the final washout and it has been and will be very brutal. Gold stock action nothing short of horrible. Looks like the XAU will move below 80 very shortly unless bullion can rally above $320. I will be alert for a selling climax which could well signal the final bottom.

Dear Aurator- what did you do?

This week's market calls remain perfectly on track. Asian markets higher, Fmagx up 3% +, DOW strong, Gold languishing, no market crash in sight in the near term ( through 1997 early 1998 ) , Conspiracy posts up 24% on Kitco site. ( And no, I am not the previous poster of the Reagan stuff! ) .

6Pak- Interesting post- lost the end. Please could you re-post? Thanks.
Will read tomorrow- caatching the Angel train.

Dow weak, wobbling around like accident victim. It has no staying power anymore, LGB. Stop shading the truth old boy.

Based on anticipated firming in Asian markets due to stabilization of crises, moved 10% of MMF to Fosfx today. Also moved another 5% into Fmagx. These are short to intermediate long holdings.

The Onion PARADOX peels yet another layer away from the eventual truth of the LONDON BULLION MARKETING ASSOCIATION...:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron1031.html

IDT: Actually, I just opened the mail and Blanchard does cover DROOY. However, his comments ended up being, buy and hold. This is a long term purchse. He intimated that if you are looking for quick returns this stock is not for you.

Also he made it clear if you are not bullish on gold for the future, why buy any mining stock let alone DROOY.

Certainly, LGB, the Dow shows "strength" ... it can't even hold on to a lousy 50+ gain, collapses to zero and then staggers drunkenly to a measely 2.7 point gain. Ho boy. Real stuff dream are made of. I laugh at your silly predictions. Sucker the remaining true believers in. You need ***every*** last penny to keep this bloated scam going.

D.A. - I think you can scroll safely tonight without
encountering too many "told you so's". Your honesty
has earned you a reprieve, I the issue was pretty much
settled Monday night anyway. However, I would caution
that if you plan to be incorrect again in the near future,
it is a good idea not to cheerlead violently or bait
others beforehand. Also, when the outcome is obvious,
either go down kicking and screaming or fade away, because
your plaintive "but, but" impressed no one. Remember,
if we ignored you ( like we ignore ANOTHER/JTF ) it would
mean we didn't take you seriously.

Thank you for your input Spud. DOW has every potential for volatile swings lower. However, IMNHO, it will end the week with a gain, end the year higher than it's current level, and conitnue it's advance into 1998. As mentioned in my posts of 01:23 and 01:48, my calls to date have had 100% accuracy with the exception that Platinum is not performing as I had hoped ( though I swing back and forth from profit to loss around my $403 buy price )

I've heard the "Bad News Bears" preach DOW drops for many many years. This has been highly unfortuante for those who have paid heed to such theorists, of which I do not count myself. The past decade has told the story so far, the rest of the week, year, decade, will complete the chapters. A long term turnaround will inevitable occur, when it does, I intend to be out of the market. The warning signs will be extensive and have plenty of advance notice when they occur.

O.K. Which one of you clowns sold 12,500 shares of NEM at the close? While we're at it, who bought the ONE, March 120 XAU call ( at 1:29pm ) today?

Dow up 3.44 on ~590 million shares. Spoos getting knocked down at the crossing again.

ECO closed down at 3 1/2 on 1.9 million shares. Losers for the day were ECO, NEM, PGU, and BMG. Except for NEM ( -2,8% ) , all had 5% to 12%+ ( ECO ) losses.

Are we at the bottom yet?

CHICAGO, Nov. 5 ( UPI ) -- Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Michael
Moskow is calling for changes in the regulation of financial
institutions and implementing operations that will make ``bankers hours''
a thing of the past.
Come Monday, the Chicago Fed will open for business eight hours
earlier every day -- at 12:30 a.m. EST -- to help ensure the safety and
soundness of the settlement banks and bank futures commission merchants
involved in round-the-clock futures and options trading.
In a speech today before the Futures and Options Expo in Chicago,
Moskow said the changing financial environment means regulators have to
come up with new ways of dealing with the evolving situation.
He says in designing regulation three principles must be kept in
mind. ``Regulation should be goal oriented, regulation should be done in
the most efficient manner and regulation should not discourage changes
in technology and market structure.''
Moskow hailed the technological changes that have reshaped the
financial industry but noted it has presented a two-edged sword for
financial institutions.
``On the one hand, the rapid growth of new products...would not have
been possible without the computer and telecommunications revolution. On
the other hand, technology has played a critical role in the creation of
substitutes for many traditional bank products, from retail deposits to
short-term credit for high-quality borrowers.''
Moskow said the boundaries of technological change are being pushed
outward and the trend will continue. He also noted that the rapid
globilization of financial markets has prompted dramatic growth in
branch and subsidiary operations overseas and improved the ability of
customers to borrow, deposit and take advantage of risk management
opportunities offered anywhere in the world.

TEHRAN, Nov 5 ( Reuters ) - Saudi Oil Minister Ali bin Ibrahim
al-Naimi on Wednesday called for closer cooperation with Iran on
oil prices, the official Iranian news agency IRNA said.
"The Saudi minister underlined the importance of the two
countries' cooperation to keep oil prices at a fair level adding
that his country seeks further negotiations with Iranian
officials to expand cooperation specially in the oil sector,"
the agency said.
Naimi, speaking at a meeting in Riyadh with the Iranian
ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said "that his country aims to
address expansion of industrial cooperation with Iran during the
upcoming OPEC ( Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries ) summit in Indonesia...", IRNA said.
"The Iranian ambassador... ( said ) the industrial countries
presently enjoy an unfairly low price for their needed crude
oil," the agency added.
Iran has yet to give its view on a proposal by Saudi Arabia
to increase OPEC's output ceiling when ministers meet in Jakarta
on November 26, an official from the National Iranian Oil
Company ( NIOC ) said on Wednesday.
"So far we have not decided any comment on the Saudi
proposal whether for or against it," the NIOC official said by
telephone from Tehran.
"We will make an announcement at a later, suitable time," the
Tehran official told Reuters.
A senior Saudi oil official on Monday said that Riyadh would
back a move to increase OPEC's ceiling by some two million
barrels per day ( bpd ) to around 27 million bpd.
Saudi Arabia and Iran are the two biggest producers in the
11-member OPEC group with quotas of eight million bpd and 3.60
million bpd respectively.

What do you get when you increase the money supply three times faster than the inflation rate and reduce the price of imported goods by up to half? A TANKING STOCK MARKET ( loss of pricing power and earning power ) and a TANKING DOLLAR ( read inflated dollar ) ! If this isn't a prescripion for STAGFLATION and a flight to alternative safe havens, I'll eat my golden cheesehead! Of course, the trouble won't be widely reported until AFTER the paper has already been distributed to you know who! Only the hard stuff will weather the coming turmoil! No one knows when it will hit critical mass consciousness, but when it does, there will be little time, if any, to flee to the safety of hard assets. The head and shoulder top wer're now in the process of forming has IMHO little time left before the PLUNGE to NEW LOWS! Those hoping for new highs on the DOW better go back and closely examine the charts posted yesterday morning and today by our Kitco freunds in the land of OZ! If you dare!

LGB speaks: "However, IMNHO, [the Dow] will end the week with a gain, end the year higher than it's current level, and conitnue it's advance into 1998"

Spud speaks:
The gain for the week will be insignificant.
The gain for the year will be a wash.
The Dow will not reach or exceed its 1997 high of 8,257.
This flaccid, flabby Lothorio called "the Dow" has run its course. Dow direction is down, down, down, down, taking true believers with it.

Nice post...But you may want to consider the brief article from Barons 11-3-97 crafted by one of my home town ( La Jolla, Ca ) boys Richard Russell editor of the Dow Theory Letter

Tex doesn't hold back, does he? TRIPLE WITCHING year!

The concept of a paradigm shift arose from studies of the history of science. It was given currency by T.S. Kuhn in his book, *The Structure of Scientific Revolutions*

Kuhn concluded that: "The successive transition from one paradigm to another via revolution is the actual developmental pattern of mature science....When an individual or group first produces a synthesis able to attract most of the next generations practitioners, the older schools gradually disappear. In part, their disappearance is caused by their members' conversion to the new paradigm. But there are always some men who cling to one or another of the old views, and they are simply read out of the profession which thereafter ignores, their work.

For example, human beings can see themselves as outside nature, whence they can observe it, dominate it and exploit it; or, by contrast, they can feel themselves to be an integral part of nature. One aspect of the change of direction to the future will be a shift from the first of these two paradigms to the second, i.e. from a scientific and economic view of nature to an ecological and spiritual view.

Again, the dominant paradigm in economic affairs may be one of maximising and expansion; or it may be one of sufficiency and balance. A shift from the first to the second of these two paradigms will also be part of the transition to the future.

Employment has been the way that industrial societies and the industrial age have organized work. More fortunate exceptions, but exceptions nonetheless, are people who earn an income from self-employment or receive an unearned income by way of interest or dividends on their own
private capital.

Money plays the central role in late industrial society that religion played in the late middle ages. Then the local church was the most prominent building in most villages; today the prime sites in every high street are occupied by branches of banks, and other financial concerns. The centres of medieval cities were dominated by cathedrals; today's city centres are dominated by the tower blocks of international banks.

Today's army of accountants, bankers, tax people, insurance brokers, stock jobbers, foreign exchange dealers and countless other specialists in money, is the modern counterpart of the medieval army of priests, friars, monks, pardoners, summoners and other specialists in religious
procedures and practices.

The theologians of the late middle ages have their counterpart in the economists of the late industrial age. Financial mumbo-jumbo holds us in thrall today, as religious mumbo-jumbo held our ancestors then.

The expanding role of money in the lives of people and in the organisation of society has been a characteristic feature of the industrial age.

Good site to go into now and again ? Go to "Front Page" for latest
http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/index.html

from *Metropolitan Diary* by Enid Nemy
" Is everyone in the stock market? Robert Rosenbaum noticed that the Oct. 27 message on the bulletin board in the subway token booth at Continental Avenue in Forest Hills wasn't the usual 'Train Delay' or 'Have a Good Day.'
'Don't panic,' it advised. 'Stocks will rebound.' "

Herr Private Investor--Who am I to argue with such an economic heavyweight as Richard Russell? Having read the article to which you refer I find myself generally in agreement that the top formation we are in the process of tracing out may take a number of weeks longer to complete, but what's a couple of weeks if you can get out NOW BEFORE the plunge and wait patiently for the inevitable? To chance a few points on the upside when the downside is absolutely catastrophic is IMHO stupid! By the way, all dipsters and DOW bugs better listen to what Russell has to say about DOW THEORY NON-CONFIRMATIONS! The one we've just seen withe the DOW TRANSPORTATION INDEX hitting neew highs WITHOUT the DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS hitting new highs is one which everyone, DOW theorist or not, had best take seriously! Declining volume on the latest rally is another clear warning signal as is the growing sale of stock by insiders and CEO's! As I've stated before, the XAU stocks are cheap and beginning to look attractive from an intermediate to long term perspective, but if we have a crash ( ala Puetz ) they will get hammered down to even cheaper levels together with all other paper--UNTIL it becomes clear that gold has resumed its historical function as a store of value in times of chaos
and that the economy is entering into a long term recession or worse!

THE GREATEST BULL MARKET IN HISTORY, it can be argued, began in December 1974, with the Dow Jones Industrials at a depressed low closing of 577.60. At that time, the yield on the benchmark average was roughly 7%. But this bull market has been in force for 23 years, and now the yield on the Dow has declined to a record-low 1.6%.

Based on stock valuations , the bull move's duration and extent and the trading volume and massive public participation that have been evident, it's clear that the market is in its third and most speculative phase. The third phase of a bull market is the most exciting and often the most profitable; it's also the phase in which a primary bear mareket can be expected to begin.
The portents should give pause to even the most raging bulls.
n Aug. 6, the Industrials closed at 8259.31, a record high. the same day, the Trans ports reached a high of 3009.25.
From there , both averages declined a bit.
The Transports slipped to 2864.96 aug.15, while the DJIA dropped to 7622.42 on Aug. 29.
From the August lows, a new advance began. This time, the gainshalted when the Industrials reached 8178.31 on Oct 7. The Transports, however, continued to rally to an all-time high of 3368.33 on 0ct 21. but the Industrials, as the chart shows, refused by a wide margin to do the same. Under Dow Theory, this means that they refused to "confirm" the record Transport highs.
The market turned down again. On Oct.27, the DJIA smashed through its August reaction low of 7622.42. this action produced one-half of a dow Theory primary bear-market signal. A half-signal isn't conclusive, but it's certainly worrisome. The situation remains cgritical. to confirm the Industrials' action, Transports must break below their own August low 2864.96.
If the occurs, then under classic Dow Theory, a primary bear market will have been signaled, and the bull's long gallop finally will have ended. The optimists can take heart from the fact that there's still some margin for error: On Friday the Transports closed at 31331.46 .
SITUATION CRITICAL!!!!

Wish those of us in the U.S. could short some of these currencies directly without jumping through hoops! How about you guys in Canada? Do your exchanges offer contracts on more of the world's currencies than ours? Seems Yanks can only enter into contracts or buy options on a handful of 'em . . . Anyway, some money to be made in the Real, I think. And it's pretty easy to see which way it's going, too.

------

BRASILIA, Brazil ( AP ) - President Fernando Henrique Cardoso said Wednesday the government had no plans to devalue the Brazilian
currency.

He told a news conference that there was ``no chance at all'' the real would be devalued. The real is currently worth about 1.1 to the
dollar.

Last week, the government moved to protect the real from speculators betting on its devaluation by selling at least $4.7 billion - some
reports put it at $8 billion - of its cash reserves.

And to stem a massive outflow of dollars, the government nearly doubled the prime lending rate from 1.58 percent a month to 3.05
percent.

At the news conference, Cardoso said he would not hesitate to continue adopting unpopular measures to defend the currency's stability.

Responding to fears that the high interest rates could provoke a recession, Cardoso said that ``we'll take all necessary measures to bring
down the basic rate as soon as possible.''

He said last week's measures were temporary and that the Central Bank was repurchasing dollars to replenish its reserves, which stood
at $61 billion before last week's financial turmoil that spread from Asian markets.

Cardoso did not say how much of the reserves had been spent or how many dollars have been bought so far.

The nomenclature....Herr Private Investor brings backs vivid memories of putting away a few Spaten ritterbrau with Richard at former Rhinelander Haus Restaurant on Avienda de la Playa in La Jolla Shores... those were the Bear days my friend... I athought they'd never end we sing and dance forever and a day.....

Comex gold warehouse stocks fell 9597 oz to 594,853 oz, all of it from eligible stocks indicating someone taking delivery.

Comex warehouse silver stocks rose 39,809 oz to 133,860,585 oz.

Herr Richard--Is that really you or merely someone posing as you? Anyway, what you say is true and I for one am patiently waiting for 2864.96 on the DOW TRANSPORTATION INDEX to get taken out to CONFIRM what many of us here at Kitco have long believed and proclaimed has ALREADY BEGUN--BEAR MARKET! BEAR MARKET! BEAR MARKET! Once it is confirmed I'll be buying the
cyber brewskies by the keg for all my bruised, battered, boorish, bearish, beerish Freunden at Kitcogarten! Sie leben hoch!

Why wait for new viruses when we've got old ones...or...
an oldie but a goodie?
http://www.abcnews.com/sections/scitech/spanishflu103/
( not much to do with gold, but I couldn't resist )

Cumulative events on Wall street in the final week of October 1997 which sent shocks throughout the world left everyone a little amazed, even awed, at the enormity of the implications. It was obvious that something big had taken place but at the same time nobody really knew quite what. Entrusted in this unremarkable street on a small island off the east coast of the North American continent were the hopes and dreams of a large portion of the world's population.
A shudder had been sent through them as sure as a chill travels up ones own spine when reminded of their mortality. There are no barbed wire barricades surrounding the bastion of capitalism, no maximum security forces deployed, only a mass of interwoven copper and fibre-optic cables transmitting levels of trust at light speed. Given that only one errant pack 'n carry nuclear device could wipe out this strategic installation in milliseconds, it must really be considered a site paramount to the interests of national security for the U.S.A. and of lesser importance to its trading partners.
Yet at the end of this tumultuous week who walks in to ring Wall Streets bells but the leader of the Communist People's Republic of China. This act is thick with symbolism and deep irony lost on the average punter but the high priests of finance will have acknowledged this salute and find themselves wondering how it all managed to get this far. Exposed is the fragility of the world's economies, the intangibility of the "wealth" and monies traded here. A determined wild-dog nation could easily rip it's canines through the soft flesh of Wall Street in a heart beat.
The alarm bells have been rung, only the fools do not heed them.

To: A Goose

SDR 1 = US$ 1.45623
US$ 1 = SDR 0.686703

These are the last posted by the IMF. In the basket itself, the dollar equivalent of the dollar ( G. Orwell has nothing on the IMF! ) is 0.582.

Yes, it would be helpful to find out if multinationals are holding cash reserves in SDRs. Use in public and PRIVATE transactions ( see post Wed Nov 5, 1997, 13:03. )

Speculate: the CFO of, oh say IBM, has SDR reserves. They can buy back their shares, making a private placement deal with IBMs market maker for--say on a close of $105--$72.12 a share!

To: All

Is there a way to ascertain the cash-in-reserve holdings of major multinationals, i.e. the breakdown ( oops ) of the currency holdings?

PrivateI:

I am in complete agreement with you on the current growth of money here in the USA. Regardless of the why, the answer is most certainly that the machine is running full out.

I do however strongly disagree that the price of gold is pointing to deflation. I don't believe that the price of gold is a good indicator of either inflation or deflation. For a commodity to have a sensitivity to the growth of money its supply characteristics must be fairly non-volatile. In this way, demand which might be a function of increases or decreases in the money supply could filter through to price. In the current environment the supply side of the gold equation is anything but steady. With central banks dishoarding and mines borrowing to sell forward, massive supply changes can and do, occur overnight.

Perhaps the best commodity by which to judge inflation in our time, would be land. The supply is well constrained and the demand part of the equation is very much effected by the growth of money. By this reckoning, inflation is much more at hand than deflation. All categories of land and the buildings that are upon them are increasing in price, some quite rapidly. I wrote here not too long ago that raw agricultural land, something that was booming in the 70's is once again rising strongly. Year over year price changes of 10% and up are being reported, and even at these higher levels, there is not much to be bought.

Deflation or inflation are simply terms used to describe the price of assets in the currency of the realm. When money growth outgrows the growth of assets, prices go up. When money growth declines relative to the growth of assets prices go down. Right now money growth is increasing faster than the growth of assets. This means were are going to have inflation, unless this relationship changes. This does not tell us which assets are going to increase, it just tells us that in aggregate asset prices are going up. The assets which go up may continue to be financial assets, however I believe this to be unlikely due to the relative valuations of financial assets and other asset classes in the society.

I believe that we are going to see a crash soon, in fact from what I have put together from the internet and private publications the cycles call for one, should we have one, on the 17th of Nov. plus or minus two days. The crash should start with the Dow down 10 percent from it's high.
Sorry LGB have to disagree with you on this one. One thing is for sure we will know in two weeks.

Herr Kiwi--Truer words were never spoken, mein Freund! And so eloquently!
The symbolism to which you make reference, and the danger to the capitalist system here in the US have not been lost on this Kitcoite! This is either the most hopeful sign of economic prosperity for the coming millenium or the most ominous sign of economic catastrophe! Perhaps the truth, as always rests somewhere in the middle! But, like you, I can't but believe such incongruities will come back some day to remind us that the fears we have today were correctly held and expressed and the results so dreaded correctly analysed! All the more reason IMHO to hold physical gold for the long term!

George Cole, Panda: Agree that gold stocks look bad -- gold bullion has been trying to go up, but repeatedly gets trounced on the New York exchange -- sold all of my gold stock mutual funds today, and will wait for the impending bottom.
My guess is that there is going to be a buying frenzy very soon to mark the turning point in gold.
My guess also is that the short-term rally in the market is over, and the market waits for AG's move on the 17th of November, I think it was.

opinions of the guru's?

test

Excellent post on Saudi Arabia agreeing with Iran that Oil prices are too low. Somethings up, and its not good for the western world, even France!
The anti-Western shift in Saudi Arabian foreign policy has begun. Fits with BC's visit to Venzuela, doesn't it? Unfortunately, the 25% oil from the Middle East -- if it is disrupted -- will have a much greater than 25% effect!

The reasons for people to buy into this market may end up being a great saving grace for the metals or any other out of favor investment. They are so used to the market going up and up and then up some more...Well I have this theory. What are they going to do if this market just sits within a few points for 10 days or more.

They are going to start looking for anything but stocks. Aside from the obvious, charted and well presented scientific information pieces is the "ominous" date of the 17th.

I say this market is set up to take a fall under it's own ponderous, overblown, overhyped, and hugely over promoted weight.

Rep. Bob Barr called today, with 17 other congressmen, to begin the process to have Bill Clinton IMPEACHED for documented instances of abuse of power. Clinton of course called Barr "an extremist" and promptly dismissed his charges. How long, O Lord, how long?

Would one of you wise men tell me what the value of the DOW is today considering inflation over the past 15 years? In other words, a DOW of 7500 today would be what in terms of 1985 dollars. If there is little difference between the two, has this really been a bull market and, if not, does a giant bear lie just around the corner or not?

Herr JTF--Help me out mein Freund! Does Saudi Arabia's call for higher oil prices mean that the dollar is being inflated too much in gold terms to suit them, that gold is being deflated in dollar terms too much to suit them, or BOTH? Could it be that the call for higher oil prices is also a call for higher gold prices? Or a call for a gold-backed Euro? Danke!

Golden Cheesehead: Bubba doesn't have a trip to Dallas this month does he?

Panda, must you rub it in on the Au stocks? But wait, one went up 7.9% and 8.59% the day before....BCMD, on 1.09MM shares, now more than 1/3 the price of ECO ( 1 9/32 to 3 1/2 ) . Check the tight flag, the candlesticks and accumulation on no news this week! You know charts better than I, sure there is risk; but can you see how much this sucker will fly if there is news. The float just about turned around since its first announcement high on 10-15, people sitting on the stock are waiting for a five, ten, 20- bagger. For Fun money only; but I know some are throwing serious coin this ones way. At any rate, its a LOT more fun than watching the rest of the gold stocks fall in a big hole, their screams "echoing" in the darkness:- ) )

Thank you for the DOW THEORY warning Richard Russell ( 17:15 ) . Will watch transport average as cautioned.

Arden: Your posts are useful to me. Keep them coming everyday.

Thanx

Herr Tolerant1--I doubt it! But if he does it'll be for one of the following reasons: 1 ) Big money 2 ) Big breasts 3 ) Big problems in Washington
Take your pick!

Golden Cheesehead: What can I say? Your killin me.

To: 6 pak

Re: T.S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions , dominant paradigm in economic affairs...maximizing and expansion ...sufficiency and balance

Good Grief, serendipity does exist! I spent drive time today pondering the battle being waged between those who view money as storage of value ( most of Kitco, I dare say ) and the medium of exchange speed-of-light, if its not working for you, its costing you folk ( the money-changers of our age ) .

I shall enjoy reading this book! But begrudge the fact that the stack of really good stuff Ive got to read... is getting taller, and wider, and deeper and...

Herr Tolerant1--I feel your pain, mein Freund, I feel your pain!

Well, I did my homework finally. I went to the local Cupertino, California coin dealer. Annnd they didn't have any Maple leaf's ( 10 day order ) and they had only 10 kugerands.
I have a question of the bulk ( scrap ) silver coins. I have heard various weights given and this dealer said that a bag was 55 pounds. How exactly and I going to know that I am paying a fair price if weigh varies. Is a bag 720 ounces and 3550 is a good price. 720 ounces + ?? pounds ( I will figure that out later ) . I think the maple leaf looks better but since they both have the same amount of gold in them it seems the kugerand is the better deal?

Is their a coming shortage in gold in middle calss America?

'Kuhn', SDRer, 6-pak, et al.:medium of exchange "vs." store of value ?! -- why is it either/or ?.... why not 'both' - in balance .... ?

A. Goose: Try Jefferson Coin & Bullion

"Bank Credit Analyst" and their chart of "Velocity odf Demand Deposits, NY Banks", first got me started, on the path of gold, in 1972. Do any of you, know if there is a current chart, of this chart, on the web/net,
today? Any url, suugestion, would be mucho appreciated. Sincerely, David.

Thanks tolerant1, but where is Jefferson localted ... what city?

RE: Your post on Saudi Arabia and oil. The way I look at it is that the "jig" is up, and the Saudi Arabian leaders are not satisfied with current oil prices ( in US dollars ) -- Perhaps they know the dollar will be allowed to fall ( very likely now ) .
The rest of what you mentioned really does not matter. You may recall that I do not believe ANOTHER's claim that the gold price is really being manipulated for the specific benefit of the Middle East oil producers. My impression is that there really was no formal conspiracy, but that the interests of the oil producers and the western world coincided- for a time.
I think it was RJ that thought that the dropping gold prices ( and rising dollar ) were due to the "powers that be" wanting the ECU/EMU launched smoothly. There may also have been a message from the chief GoldmanSachs chief economist to that effect. You see the dollar had be strong so that the ECU countries have a favorable balance of trade, or they may not make the grade for the ECU/EMU launching.
Now it seems that the interests of the oil producers and "the powers that be" no longer coincide. Thus, trouble ahead! Nothing complicated.

Covered short early and went long at noon for daytrade. Holding short from 952.50, entered at 3 pm. Expecting today's high will hold. Looking for 880spoos.

NKOB, Re your 18:13 on DOW value vs. inflation, it all depends on what you compare it to. I know every dollar invested in the DOW in 1980, now has far higher buying power relative to Real Estate, food, Precious metals, Gas or home heating energy, Automobiles, insurance, entertainment, and a host of other important tangible and intangible assets.

Conversely, if we look at Gold since 1980 for example, we see that it's dollar dollar has dropped to roughly half what it was, but it's buying power has plunged DRASTICALLY much lower than that relative to all these important commidties, goods, and services. The DOW has thus outperformed Gold by a factor well excedding 8 to 1 since 1980, and at least 4 to 1 throughout most of our lifetimes, with the exception of the aberrative hyperinflation Carter presidency years.

gold and oil up right now on the globex. Lets hope there has been some kind of change in the gold market

one of the problems in the gold market is that banks have been able to create it "out of thin air" in the same way currency is created.

As long as gold can be borrowed for 2.5 % a year and treasuries bought that yeild 6.2% year there will be no lasting bull in gold

A.GOOSE 720 Ozs. average silver content in $1,000 face 90% silver US coin bag. If you have to pay sales tax you might want to check COIN DEPOT 800-922-2441, PAUL SIMS, INC 800-368-3039, or MT. VERNON COIN 800-368-2314 - good luck!

Ron if you want to short the curriecies why not short an emerging markt bond fund?

Herr LGB--And you're still bullish on the DOW! Come on, get real! This is the mother of all manias and WILL be reversed SOON! Methinks your own evidence will put you on the judgment seat as a witness against yourself!

To: A Goose

Assuming youre an American, and paying for oil from your SDR reserves, the 10/10/97 price ( last time I updated my spreadsheet ) , with spot price oil @ 21.50 USD, was 6.86394 SDR.

So you can see why it has to go up, Up, UP!

A. Goose: Ah, yeah!? Sorry, here, save ya the trouble. 800-593-2585
Jefferson, LA

Herr FJKLAS--Unless the printing of money by the FED spurs an inflation rate GREATER than the interest rate! A real possibility now that the FED is desperately trying to reinflate ASIA and save Japan!

Golden Cheesehead: Re your 14:46 post: I don't know any more who's crazier--me or the lunatics. Thanks.

A. GOOSE @pondCentral: You said "Is their a coming shortage in gold in middle class America?" Thx for making me realize something. Reportedly, the US government allegedly has 262 million ounces of the yellow metal in its coffers. And as the US population is about 265 million, that means We The People Each Own One Ounce of Gold.

I propose in this regard that we at Kitco Gold Forum begin a grassroots movement to have our Congressmen to propose a new decree, based on the following:

IN CONSIDERATION that our illustrious Fed Chairman does not recognize gold as backing for the greenback, and

IN CONSIDERATION that our illustrious Secretary of the Treasury does not believe that gold has any monetary value, and

IN CONSIDERATION the value of the noble metal has steadily fallen during the last 17 years, and

IN CONSIDERATION that Wall Street desperately needs gold to continue to drop in value so the charade dances on, and

IN CONSIDERATION gold earns no interest and therefore is a non-producing asset, incurring annual storage and insurance costs for the US government - that the American people pay through their taxes,

I submit Congress should declare a 'political dividend,' and
divvy-up all that useless metal amongst the population of these United States. Forthwith, each man, woman and child will receive a One Ounce American Gold Eagle, thus relieving our illustrious government of the onerous burden, and allowing it to continue at the work it does best so well: increasing the national debt!

WILL ANYONE SECOND THE MOTION?

In order that this movement gains currency ( pardon the pun ) it is necessary that each and everyone of you voice his or her opinion on this monumentally important issue.

BECAUSE IF THE YELLOW STUFF AINT GOT NO VALUE, THEN GIVE IT BACK TO THE PEOPLE... or am I missing something here??????????????????

My question is.... is it even there to give??????????????????????

LGB: Given the fact that the wealth in America which has been produced in the last 25 years is totally paper oriented, and the fact that the debt load is beyond comprehension, the figures you gave in your last post seem a little out of whack.

One throw of the die and gold will hurtle faster than a printing press past all the gains in those 25 years. The people that do not have gold will be eaten alive as their paper wealth is destroyed in one of a number of ways, and when their debts need to be repayed, they will have even less than nothing as repossession will remove things from their lives but the compounded debt will continue to grow.

So, Dow Jones needs to increase profits. As in charging for quotes on the Dow.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/dj.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

One Ounce a Head: I don't think the gold is there. I believe it was redeemed for paper to the Central Bankers. Pretty nifty switch huh.

Since the Constitution specifies gold and silver as currency, could we make a court challenge to get our tax refunds in gold ( or even silver? ) In this manner the government could rid itself of the barbaric relic while properly discharging, for once, its fiduciary duty! OH TORT!

Roebear: Now that's an idea.

Inflation obviously is comparative. The government numbers are not reliable since they are political in nature and very much affect budget negotiations, etc. I take it you are interested in getting a sense of perspective in terms of the numbers being high verses is that really high in view of the less valuable dollars.

Suggest that you loook at ratios to determine the status of these DOW numbers P/E and Dividend yeild for starters. This will not tell you whether imminent crash bear market will happen tomorrow, but it will let you see the extremes in price compared to performance.

Some talk about stocks as priced 'with five year's earnings increases in view'. Which means the price is unrealistic for today's performance but is priced ASSUMING recent history in profit increase will continue for 5 years as they have thus far.

Someone once said here with regard to getting out of a over sold market 'better a year early than a minute late'. As we have seen its very possible to get effectively locked out of trading on a day which runs red with blood. The hyperbole of the above statement may not be so far removed from reality the next time around ( down ) .

Capital preservation is the basic plank on everyones investment strategy.

Thanks for responce from LGB and tolerant 1. Have been unable for some reason to go the the website that I was given. Will keep tring. LGB, after the market dropped did the gold stock then jump.

For those of you that have an interest. Mr. Soros will be the main course tonight on ABC Nightline with Ted Koppel and his harido.

Westley: Did you have trouble getting through to the gold-eagle.com website?

SDRer :

" SDR 1 = US$ 1.45623
US$ 1 = SDR 0.686703 "

What does the Ryiad ( sp ) convert to in terms of the sdr?
SDRer :
"Yes, it would be helpful to find out if multinationals are holding cash reserves in SDRs. "

I definitely think your on to something if regards to governments using this "sdr" to cover the real problems in currencies, specially the US dollar. I am not versed enough to help figure it out, but please keep posting because their are people on kitco that can solve this mystery. Once we understand the inter-relationship between the sdr, us dollar and international trading and money exchange, then I believe we will know how and why they are doing the manipulations that are occuring.

New Kid on the Block - Again ( rdanhof@commtechinc.com )

That was the subject of a vigorous discussion sometime ago. I think the answer was... yes and no. It depended on which asset class was overvalued and undervalued. It's entirely possible to have a 'silent' market crash. Stocks go no where for several years while real assets increase in 'value'. In other words, real estate may go up 10% a year while stocks went no where. Effectively, you lose by being in stocks and not being in real estate. Ah, the magic of a floating currency.

Date: Wed Nov 05 1997 19:33
........ ( ONLY ONE OUNCE PER HEAD ) ID#20716:

What can I say ..... I LOOoooooovvveeee IT! Great idea, should be easy to implement to. ....

A Goose: Here is a currency converter.

http://www.xe.net/currency/index.shtml

D.A.
I just had the opportunity to see you 11-04-97, 22:34PM post.
You are 100% correct. IRS will never complete their work. Tangible assets will boom.

tolerant 1, got in after a few tries. Thanks

Thanks Crunch.

Thanks SDRer .

Durban Deep is a fantastic buy in my opinion. Blanchard has been recommending it for a while. The increase in trading volume in the last few days ( from few thousand to well over 500k ) may be signaling someone smart enough has recognized its value. This producer has 42 mil shares out with annual output of almost 800000oz. The cost is coming down and so far no forward selling on their part. Note that almost 40 mil !! of the out.shares are owned by the nominee and other company bodies. My guess is that this unbelievably low price is NOT due to Blanchard's recom. but rather due to the release of shares from the nominee and other company bodies to the market. I bought a lot of shares yest at 1 7/8. My post yest. discussed and recommended the buy. When gold reaches 400-425 these shares will be easily up 10 fold. Mark my words. Buying Durban is equivalent to buying call option on gold without expiration, the same as Silver Standard with silver.

The reason why the Dow is still up is that untold # of lemmings ( I work with some of those idiots who can not think for themselves ) rushed to their banks last Tuesday morning to get $$$ to buy on THE DIP. When I talked to these people, it is as if listening to CNBC. They all repeat the same lines as if pre-programmed. I was born in a communist country and did not realize that mass media can so easily brainwash people even here.In my opinion this is going to run out within a week or two. I go into the general market in and out so as to limit my exposure to the final episode. Hang in there, you will be well rewarded. For there is no bull market like a gold bull market. The gains in the general market over the last few years will be matched by the gold bull within months or perhaps days. Just check your history. Therefore, waiting extra few weeks or months is well worth it.

WOW what a week to go on vacation - The Pacific is unbelievably warm
right now. My move is completed also. Earl: The manager at my old
residence moved on a couple of weeks ago - funny how things work out.

I thought of all sorts of lead-ins for this piece of news, but decided
just to post it and let everyone draw their own conclusions. Sorry
if this has already been posted or discussed, I've been out for 10 days.
LGB, per our earlier exchanges, I think this hits home for you - it
sucks when they pull the carpet out.
http://www.prnewswire.com/cnoc/exec/menu?349500

The important part is that one of the founders of GlobalStar is bailing
out. I can't explain all the undercurrents of this, but GlobalStar is
in trouble. The new darling on Wall Street, I-Co from Europe. I don't
know much about them, but some important money thinks they will be the
second global satelite player along with Iridium.

In my last post ( Date: Sun Nov 02 1997 21:52
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253: )
I said that some thing was going to change.
It is changing now! But first, some replies:

 JD ( @home ) ID#253201:
I don't get it. Also if the Saudis have been trading
oil for gold they lost money over 17 years.
Period. 2 and 2 is 4 not 20.

JD, they have also held a few billion in underground
oil that went from $30+ in the early 90s to the $20
range today. Would we say they lost money in oil?
Yes, they owe money. Yes, they play the paper game.
They also would make good poker players as they
hold an ACE where noone can see! They are not
like you or I, for them 2 and 2 is 40!

Date: Sun Nov 02 1997 23:06
JTF ( @Home- ANOTHER's Comments ) ID#57232:
I think a period of inflation followed by sudden deflation would be far more
likely for certain of the world's currencies. This is already happening in SE
Asia. I cannot believe there will be no inflation or deflation. 

JTF
At this moment in time and space, the price of oil in US$ terms is about
to roar! It will crush the Pacific Rim and South America. It will drive the
US$ sky high in terms of other major currencies but the dollar will collapse in
terms of gold! Short term interest rates in the USA will be driven thru the floor
much the way they have been in Japan from the early 90s. This will be done
to combat a imploding equity market. Long government bonds will almost
stop trading as their yield soars from the oil price fears of inflation!
Because of todays new digital paper markets this entire act will be
played out in 30 days or less.
Yes, you are right! During that time we will have inflation and deflation.

Date: Mon Nov 03 1997 07:31
Reify ( @ANOTHER ) ID#413109:
Soooo, I'm wondering, over what period of time are your
predictions?
Where do you get information on about, Big Trader?

Reify,
The actual buying of gold ( no other metals ) by huge players
is not a prediction, it is ongoing. In 1997 it exploded! The
price of the metal in currency terms will be made for all to
see as it moves quickly upward for a very short period of
time ( 30 days ) . After that only black market traders and
third world noones will understand its price!
When is this going to happen? I have no idea.
Is there anything to look for that will tell us when the
problems have started? At first the US$ and gold will
go up together against all other assets!

Big Trader is ( was ) from HK and is in the business.

Date: Sun Nov 02 1997 11:51
Shek ( home ) ID#287279:
ANOTHER,
Some months ago another poster ( Simple Man ) gave the same advice.
Get rid of all paper assets, only physical possession will do. Gold stock
certificates will be useless. Are you Simple Man or connected to him?

Shek,
I do not know him, but have seen the posts.

Date: Sat Nov 01 1997 22:54
fjklaj ( jfdkla; ) ID#338126:
Another, I always like reading your posts BUT they have always been followed by
a sharp drop in gold

fiklaj,
There is no end to the amount of paper contracts that can be
written and sold to drop the price of gold. The large players
that I know have no problem with this. They are not traders.
Gold will only have to be repriced once, that will be more than
enough!



To close:
The oil and gold connection looks to be changing now! After
all these years we hear of an end to foolish thought. This should
get very interesting.

 Knowing the future direction and price of gold will
be useless for anyone who invests in paper gold! In the
near future "timing" will be nothing. What you are holding
will be everything!

D.A.

This appeared in INSIGHT ( Nov. 3 ) .
"Yet a 116-page request for comment the IRS issued to vendors on
May 15 on the Treasury Department World Wide Web page is
raising questions about how much the agency believes it can do. Ed
Yardeni, the chief economist of the Deutsche Morgan Grenfell-North
America investment-banking firm who has written extensively on
Y2K's economic impact, tells Insight that this document is "not
consistent with what I've seen them telling Congress." Yardeni
observes that "the document uses phrases like their main goal is to
stay in business {and} they need to hire a private-sector systems
integrator to help them modernize this system to achieve Y2K
compliance. They explicitly state that they don't have the manpower
or resources to fix all their systems. They point out they have 63
mainframes and 62 million lines of code that are not Y2K compliant.
The language is borderline desperate."
The comment request states that the IRS modernization plan
"represents the largest systems integration ever undertaken by the
private or public sector. Success would be wholly dependent on
partnering with the private sector." But Yardeni says the IRS admits
it doesn't have the money to pay a private-sector contractor when it
says it "seeks to create a business plan which shares risk with the
private sector, {providing incentives to} the private sector to either
share or assume front-end capital investment." Yardeni says the most
shocking aspect of the document is that it states the IRS will award a
contract for modernization no sooner than Oct. 1, 1998. "Most Y2K
experts agree that any organization that doesn't begin to fix the
problem by October of this year won't meet the unforgiving and
un-moving Jan. 1, 2000, deadline."
Yardeni doubts that the IRS can manage its Y2K problems without
drastic reform of its disarrayed computer systems. "You can't
separate Y2K from the system failures they're having right now," he
says, noting that the IRS has no central database. Yardeni quotes the
IRS' comment as saying that "detailed tax and tax-case information is
stored on stovepipe systems with stand-alone databases which, for
the most part, are not integrated" with the main tax-processing
systems. He adds that thousands of applications systems that perform
specific functions are referred to as "undocumented," meaning the
instruction manuals are missing."
http://guide-p.infoseek.com/Content?arn=ix.INSI11784&col=IX

Gold Bug Alert

I will say this again. Let us make some money together. Time is NOW running out. The 'Pennant' has or is VERY close to finishing. The subsequent breakout will be a good $$ making Opp. and I only see it going ONE-WAY....................ugh...but you can wait for the breakout if you want...

http://router.minot.com/~bohl/display.pl

select Gold Daily Dec. contract. Make your own call...remember those ugly Friday's

away...to get on the elevator...


spud, you ready to make a quick buck?? Join the Plunge...

To: Dave @PacBell
Why does it have to be one or the other? Because life is organic, not mechanical? Because we live in a world of Yin-Yang, Good-Evil, Buy-Sell, Sick-Well. The oscilloscope shows peaks and valleys. When the line is flat, youre dead...

To: Fjklas
Remember Jim Grants ( Grants Interest Rate Newsletter ) observation that  medieval alchemists would gasp in wonder at a culture that has managed to turn gold into paper!

Looking at your predictions and thinking about them a bit. I have a few questions about the long range numbers. Are you seeing, if it goes your way, a long bear of 1.5 years? Or do we drop suddenly and float down a bit to 4000? You seem pretty certain of the 4000 DOW and 2700 Gold so you must have reasons there. My next question regards the sudden inversion in the directions of gold and equities. If gold goes to 2700, to me that would indicate a fairly chaotic financial/economic picture and insecure public. For gold to drop precipitously ( and equities to suddenly leap up would lead to a question of "why?". Historicly things that doomy and gloomy haven't turned around so fast. Do you have sources inside certain financial institutions which have indicated a planned event or change in policy which could so affect Au? 05/99 is a good 2 quarters into the Euro introduction. Is there some correlation?

Westley: Glad to help.

CHECK YOUR GOD DAMN MAIL BOX$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

http://router.minot.com/~bohl/

Select Daily Gold Dec.

Go on...Do it...

away...to await the feedback


MikeS - What do you see?? Throw me a bone...

I'll read ya later. Jerry West wants to trade me so I'm gonna go knock some heads. They ought to trade that big dumb Shazam character...stoooooooopid.

Anyone- does anyone know any other reasons for ECO dropping below 11 year low besides just bad earnings. Any other info???? Please post!!

Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.53

steady, maybe it's tax loss related. Getting close to end of year. 3 1/2?

XAU/Spot Ratio = .273 Lowest reading on this ratio since we have been posting it at Kitco.

Found this site for Junk Silver. $3447 for $1000 face value. NO sales tax. http//www.ajpm.com/

Found this site for Junk Silver. $3447 for $1000 face value. NO sales tax. http//www.ajpm.com/

http://www.ajpm.com/ for junk silver@ 3447/bag

Impeachment proceedings against Clinton have formally begun. But do not look for the news on it on the Clinton News Network or the Associated Clinton Press. It appears that such news are less important to them than, let's say, a kitty-cat being rescued from a tree. You have to read foreign press:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=000124036011016&pg=/home.html

If this gets anywhere, it should knock US bonds down a couple of notches, don't you think?!

Well I guess ANOTHER sumed it up.

 Knowing the future direction and price of gold will
be useless for anyone who invests in paper gold! In the
near future "timing" will be nothing. What you are holding
will be everything!

I guess I will go a buying tomorrow.

Thanks Silver Junkie.

ANOTHER is full of Sh!T! ditto Big Trader!!

Would somebody, anybody, besides Another, please try and tell me what this individual is talking about.

How does all the paper gold become worthless. And then only what you have in hand is worth something.

Also, blackmarket and thirdworld noones.

I am simply looking for a sliver of comprehension.

Bema at 2 7/8? Looks like a 50% off sale at your local discount store. Soon they'll be taken off the shelf.

Date: Wed Nov 05 1997 20:33
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
In my last post ( Date: Sun Nov 02 1997 21:52
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253: )
I said that some thing was going to change.
It is changing now! But first, some replies: ============
Since most of my holdings are in gold & silver mining companies,
and what you've written may just be of great concern for my survival,
as I'm retired, would please request a reply as to what you suggest.
To sell what I own would mean losses, and what investment at this point
Oil Stocks? Bullion? What?
Greatful for an early reply, maybe directly to my email, your choice.

Elliot wave analysis on OZ SPI
Commentary is basis the December 97 contract.

At yesterday's 2590 high the market was within
one point of the 61.8% retracement mark of the 2827-2610 decline
( situated at 2591 ) . As discussed, it is likely that the current advance is the
second leg of an unfolding corrective pattern. I cautiously favour that
yesterday's 2590 high marked the end of the correction, with a decline that
takes the market back to 2210 to now follow. A break of 2463 ( 61.8%
retracement of the 2385-2590 upleg ) is needed to strongly indicate further
weakness to this low. Whilst not favoured to occur, an ability break and hold
gains above 2591 would warn of further gains to wave equality resistance
at 2705 before the next significant downleg.


Allan
Good point about the futures leading the physical contract.
Probably a hard one to do as the future contracts have a time premium built in that decays.
As to the continuous contracts that have been back adjusted, don't have any.
I follow the difference between the future and physical on the Oz market.
They are some interesting habits that occur, but still learning.
With the Oz All Ords, I have noticed that when the future goes below the physical,
That there will soon be a rally following.
I like to see the future following the physical down rather than getting in front of it.
This can be observed in a chart that is in a topping formation and turning.
As to a chart that is finishing a bottoming formation like gold, I'm not sure.


JTF
Email :
sharefin@cairns.net.au

Quite intresting the quotes from the mid east about the industral countries getting unfairly priced oil. Somthing is up! While the Saudi's cannot by themselves influence the price of oil upward the reformation of OPEC with some new member nations could be a possibility. The US has been left licking its butt by the UN and Iraq's Saddam. They dont fear US. Saddam is feeling us out to see what we will do . BC being the coward putz that he is will back down. The US will loose standing in the mid east. When they loose confidence in us will they also loose confidence in our Dollar? The domestic oil production cannot expand. Landbased drilling rigs are backed up nine months now!. If there is a higher demand for landbased driling rigs the availibility of the draw works in the US is nonexistant. Guess where these very necessary tools are being manufactured? China! Somthing is shaping up and it could be a cold winter next year if things fall into place.

If you are counting on ANOTHER for investment advice YOU is in deep do-do and maybe a good shrink would be more appropriate. Do YOU believe in the tooth fairy too?? Good luck! ( YOU need it! )

Chippie The natives are getting restless and that pile of gold has not yet moved, where is that useless svengali, fingers McCloed?

Tolerant1: Paper becomes worthless when no one wants it. This can happen when governments fall ( the conferate dollar ) . It can happen via hyperinflation ( the Weimar republic ) . Paper gold can become worthless only if the market ( all of us ) refuses to accept the options, futures, stocks etc. Only a cataclysm of unparalleled magnitude could make this happen. Over the past year we at Kitco have been treated to a great deal of smoke from Big Trader and now Another. Consider what they say like you would the ghost stories told around a campfire to kids. They are entertaining and that's all.

ANOTHER- I am somewhat reluctant to post tonight, as some think I am you. But any who have read your writing style and mine will know, so I will continue.
I think my understanding is approaching yours in some aspects -- I think some of the difference has to be in different manners of thinking -- common I know among individuals who are brought up in different cultures.
Today Kiwi posted that the Saudis have agreed with the Iranis that worldwide oil prices are too low. With the advent very soon of the effective ECU/EMU deadline, "the powers that be" have less incentive to keep the dollar strong, and it will drop more, I think. The Saudis ( or any country in my opinion ) are entitled to fair value in their goods. This will not be so if the value of the dollar drops without oil prices going up in direct proportion -- so oil prices must go up.
Unfortunately, during this time, currencies in SE Asia have collapsed, enhanced by the El Nino effect. I agree with you -- South America will be next.
I think you are right also that the US Federal reserve will be tempted to reduce interest rates to inflate the dollar -- in order to minimize the world wide and local effects of deflation spreading from SE Asia. The USA risks inflating the stock market to dizzying heights, and risk what happened to Japan just before the 1990 Japanese crash. I do not know if this temporal sequence can be prevented, but Alan Greenspan is probably the most competent federal reserve chairman we have ever had. He may try to pop the bubble earlier rather than later -- he knows full well that the above scenario might develop.
I must admit that I do not take your posts at face value entirely -- from prior experience in life -- but I will now say that your posts are thought-provoking and always worth reading. It is unfortunate that we are all living through this difficult period to come, but there is solace that we are using the internet to enlighten all of our lives I think -- yours as well as ours. Thank you for keeping up the posts, and putting up with the chaff within the wheat at Kitco.

Don't know where that rascal fingers McCloed is at now but I'm gettin impatient and might have ta go in by meself.

O'tay, entertainment, granted, but even that should have some sliver of a story line. I know I am the first person in my family to walk upright but good gravy. This is more like Goldfinger meets Ellen, plus shrooms.

Herr Another--If I read your latest post correctly, you are saying that one day soon, BOTH the OIL and GOLD will SOAR in TERMS OF US DOLLARS as the dollar inturn SOARS against all other currencies! But it will all be over within a month ( 30 days or less ) at the end of which GOLD WILL CEASE TO TRADE, the stock market will IMPLODE and short term interest rates will be lowered to almost nothing to try to resurrect stocks while bonds soar in yield to ridiculous new heights. ALL physical gold will be owned and there will be no gold available to trade. Only those who have it in their possession before this massacre occurs will have a chance at realizing any gain. All paper gold will be worthless just like stocks and bonds! Am I right? If not please correct!

news from the land of storm: http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/4/nfrnt03.html....and
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/4/nfrnt02.html.....
happy...

Giving credibility to ANOTHER+ BIG TRADER makes this site appear to be a JOKE!

Aurator: Are you out there? Find any of Nick's whales?
All: See you in the AM -- my son wants the net access.

Here is a time bomb ticking. Social Security may be in trouble with Y2K. If the public starts worrying about this, then look out! http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-11/05/112I-110597-idx.html

Screwed it up, will repost URL in a few minutes

Oldman: I'm glad to see you joined the stock market bears. The reversal in stocks today shows that tremendous resistance sits above DJIA 7700. FOr three days the DJIA has been trying to push above pre-Panic-Monday levels. The rally on declining volume is one of the bearish indicators. The high level of call activity on the CBOE is another. The 50% retracement is a third bearish signal. The reversal today is a forth.

LGB: Take notice. Time is running out. It's not too late to change your ways. Repent, now, you bullish-sinner. I'm still trying to save you!!

Try again on Social Security. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-11/05/112l-110597-idx.html

here is the correct http:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-11/05/112l-110597-idx.html

Testing, testing. Don't be alarmed, this is only a test.

JTF AND TED,
Hi..good day!

This morning,the KOREA WON BEEN HIT AGAIN!check it out!The vibrate effected the others region too!KOREA is one of the most influnced country to the other small dragonsssssss in area!

take care!

Auric, I don't know why but neither yours or mine work. When you copy/paste it to "go to location" it works just fine. I guess SSA don't want people to read it.;- ) Kathy is very confident about them being ready on time. Well, considering they work on it for the last 10 years they better be. She is a very good PR person - I've heard her official line too many times but sometimes her numbers don't play right

Thanks Miro. Any comments on SSA?

Yea! Preach it brother Puetz! Ye bullish sinners wilt be melted down in the crucible of stock market panic! Starting tomorrow at 9:30 E.S.T.

Steve
The ID nos. on Oldmans post are different to yesterdays.
The writing style seems to be his but the nos. make me wonder.

I agree wholeheartedly with your comments and as such have not sold my insurance yet. Still in profits and safe.
The market needs to retrace soon and then will show its true colours.
If it was to fall minimally then start to rally strongly then I will step aside for the short term.
To wait for the next positioning period.
But if it falls under momentum I'm holding for you know what.
I feel that we should have a definitive answer to the direction within the next two weeks.

AL: Bema had a range of 6.1-5.1 Canadian the week the deal with Placer was announced. It's not a surprise it's sold off considering the deal and the class action suit they have to answer. My experience is you better have an exit strategy and bail out as soon as there is a wiff of bad news and move on to something else. I think they have to clean up the whole area of Norht American exploration companies. There is a few winners but most are big time losers. Good investing!!!

Folks, I just noticed that some links don't work ( at least for me ) when you use a short text format for displaying posts. When I used a full text version, links worked ( e.g. mine and Auric links to SSN Y2K story ) .
Does anybody else have that problem or is it just my setup?

JIN: URL please for the Korean Won attack.

MIRO: Embedded links sometimes work and sometimes not, regardless of long or short display format. Kitco has a minor bug. You can always copy and paste.

Hang Seng has recovered nicely. An hour ago, it was down 72 points, now off only 12. See it in real time at http://imsp003.netvigator.com/fina/inde/hsidata.cgi
The page updates once per minute automagically.

Steady: It's probably getting killed because it has high cash costs combined with high leverage. Remember a gold company does not have a net asset value if they cannot pull it out of the ground at a profit. There are some company's with no debt, tons of cash, and a low cash cost. Focus on these until gold makes a definite bottom

Another is just ANOTHER goldbug who has some rather interesting and extreme suggestions about the wheres whys and maybes of the gold market. Basically he says he has information from the LMBA that shows the Arabs have been supplied cheap gold all these years to ensure cheap oil to the West...a prank pulled by the CB's to keep inflation down. Problem is that they are way oversold in gold except mostly it's just paper forward sales of gold yet to be produced. Some other guy calling himself Big Trader and others got wind of this ( Asians ) and started plonking down some real bid money to buy physical gold knowing that if they did so the CB's would be forced to cough up some of the real stuff sooner rather than later. And this is what is happening now the CB's are panicking cause they may have to really sell the gold, Aussie was the first fall guy, so they are discrediting gold like crazy and selling short like there is more gold in the world than copper thus the present situation.
Sort of a wild and scary notion the whole racket but if true then it's just about checkmate for the Western CB's and they will not move the physical gold when the paper gold goes through the roof so looks like a black market for physical gold will open up and the paper market of gold will collapse...else the western CB's will have to live up to their lies and hand over the barbaric relic and relegate the western nations to third world countries with no gold.

Hang Seng recovery: never mind. Now back down 73.70

Tollerant
If we were to see a crash of 50%+ I think that many many pieces of paper that we value so much, would become just what they are - paper.
The cause and effect of bad debt, bankruptcies, etc. that we are now seeing in Asia, would be monumental if they were to hit the West with the same force.
Nearly everone has leveraged themselves into debt, and if that debt was to be called upon, then would all go down the tube.
There were be such a rage of denial that many would not honour the pieces of paper to which they had put their name.
This effect is already visible in Asia, and following the domino effect shall surely find its way to the West.

Puetz: I have NOT joined the stock market bears. I am NOT a stock market bull. I am simply one who, as a matter of personal life choices, MUST take a living out of the markets----every day, every week, every month. I have watched the gold bulls suffer decimation of their finances during a grinding bear market. I have seen the stock bears piss away their money buying puts on the greatest stock market bull in history. I do what my indicators and my reading of the charts tell me to do. I am a slave to my method. I must be. My work tells me that the market has/is stalled at this point, and cannot go up without pulling back for a running start. Ergo, I am short. Sometime in the next several days, at a point some 40-80 spoos points lower, I'll be buying with both hands. The folks who have puts on the indexes would be well served by taking whatever profits are available in the next few days, during the technical selloff that is imminent. Any one who risks a lot of his stash betting on a bear market during a stock friendly monetary situation, is gambling against the odds. That is NOT the way to make money. I want the edge. I dont want to prove what a smart bear or bull I am, so I can brag on the chat. I simply want to be lucky enough to find out what the market wants to do, and, forgetting about ego, go along for the ride. As we now enter the most bullish season of the year, with bonds strong and rising, profits strong, and bullish sentiment well below 50%, it would not be financially beneficial to me to do otherwise. Good work in your Evangelism. Good luck to all in their trading/investment. Bye.

Kuston re your 20:80. I'm afraid your mistaken about the Globalstar news being bearish. In fact it's up 4.79% today on that news which is quite excellent for me as it's a portion of my company stock investment. It's also up 100% in 6 months incidentally and expected to climb much higher based on anticipated earnings. The further decoupling from Lockheed Martin is highly bullish for Loral. Our CEO, took our complany from a 50 Million enterprise when I started there in 1985, to a 1.5 Billion enterprise in 1995. He then divasted all the military divisions to Lockheed in the buyout 2 years ago, retaining his new love, the Sattelite manufacturing division. ( Formerly Ford Aerospace ) His record is virtually unparraleled in our industry. I visit Lockheed Martin regularly on business, and can assure you any severed ties with them are definitely to our advantage.

I promise to repent from my Bullish DOW ways... just before the beginning of the next Bear market. Which is currently 2 to 5 years away! Till then I'll continue to sinfully rack up even more enormous gains of wothless "paper", and continue using that worthless "paper" to purchase worthless precious metals, an Automobile, a college education for my kids, a nice vacation or three, and many other "worthless" benefits, just as I have for the past few years!

( Pssst, how them S&P Puts doing ??? )

The unrepentant but new and improved, LGB

When the banks come to collect the debt what will they take. If you have a lot of credit card debt, then it is uncollectable. They can get a judgement against you what will that be worth when you are one of millions. Same for equity debt. Out here in 86 and 87 bankers were not foreclosing on houses because they didn't want them to sit empty. A lot of people drove to the bank, put the keys on the bankers desk and drove away. Yes you could find bargans but you didn't know if you would have a job tomorrow and you heald on to your cash. I think the same will happen when the players crap out. There will be bargins but everyone will be so shell shocked that action will be impossible. I am just afraid fo what the government action will be.

Your post confirms what I suspected all along. There is indeed, intelligent life on the planet "Kitco".

For Colleen

Love to send you an e-mail or meet you in the Boland. However you
never give your address ! Regarding rebeliousness ( is that a word ? )
- as Brando said in a movie once when asked what he was rebelling
against ----- "Whadayagot ??"

korondy:
I went to The Golden Cache today and while I was talking to the clerk. She said that a bag of scrap was 55 pounds. I have heard from 70 to 55 pounds so far. I assume that I would want the heaviest bag sold if the average contents are the same for all. Any suggetions for me to know how to compare bags.

Just to add a real life story to your observation re taking Puts in this bull market. My younger brother, of whom I wrote here before, has now been "wiped out" be listening to a Broker who convinced him to buy Puts in this market. He lost approx. $10K in 1996, another $6K a few months ago, and took his final wipeout last Tuesday when he was convinced to take not only a Put position, but a Futures position on the sell side as well. Not only has he lost everything he ever saved, but he owes $14,700 on his decimated futures play. This is a guy with a family, at the early part of his career, and with a relatively small investment pile.

Now quite obviously, I did all I could to talk the kid into buying the market long, and in the boring, unleveraged, conventional way. However, like many youths do, he had to learn the hard way. Unfortunately for him, he'll suffer for the Bearish advice he believed in for many years to come.

I saw a study in the WSJ a few weeks ago that showed how the ratio of those who have lost money be being OUT of the market has been about 20:1 compared to this IN the market, spanning the years from WW2 until now.

Get lost bastard son!

YOU ARE A LIER

Just read about the Republican sweep. If they take over big in 1998
the markets could tank as they did in 1929. Happy days can't go on forever. Would that mean they would be out of favor for another 40 years? Life is so short. Too bad. By the way, thank heavens my wife
doesn't know how many gold stocks I still own. I must be nuts. Even the
Swiss are threatening to dump it. Paper promises must be better; the engraving is real good and it could have tiny wire threads with upc codes
and everything. Plink, blat, euro$.

Great commentary, great site!

For IDT/others

Regarding Durbad Deep - Well now I hate that stock
actually. It is true that is makes a good gold call.
It is GEARED. But it is a real mess. Of the three
divisions, Buffels is Ok and near breakeven at this
gold price, Blyvoor is a loser and seems problem
ridden, and in my view Deeps itself should be shut
down anyway on general principles.
Believe todays action was because Rangold management
( in their wisdom and I think they are losing it )
decided NOT to shut down the Deeps division. I think
this was really stupid and cannot figure what they are
on about. Maybe its a death wish.
Other BETTER "calls" in my opinion - Randfontein
( still making money and down about 7 times from its
high of less than 2 years ago - a turnaround possiblity )
- evander ( down about the same or more but with some
problems - this mine used to be Kinross ) - or AVGOLD
( a real gold call - this mine is made up of the old
Harties and Lorraine - in 1993 Lorraine went from one
rand to about 20 rands - but I would not move until
gold does as Lorraine was almost closed in 1993 and
surely will be soon unless the gold price comes back
hard )

LazloT: There used to be a country doctor by the name of Lazlo Toth. Any connection????

Is there anything quite as satisfying as the feel of real golden worth in the palm of your hand? A one ounce Maple or AE? Something that is beautiful, heavy, glints golden in the sun? Luv em..

I just had to tell you this "real life" story so all you gold bugs know that I am reformed. I feel so bad for my brother and I hate all broker who take advantage like pitzky and all those other Morons out there. If my little baby brother would have listened to me like all of you should he would be retired drinking mai-tais in puerto vallarta all day long. Like I do. My wife watches the 7 girls while I stay at this chit chat channel dispensing invaluable advice to all who care to sift through my boring ass droaning of how I have made so much money in this bull stock market but not to worry because I said that silver is bullish and it will go up along with platinum because all my advicec is 100% correct all the time because I am the Horses Ass and I have to keep posting here because I know how much you all love my posts. Or most of you, besides the people who hate me most of you love and need my endless advice to save you from brokers who take 14,000,700 from innocent people whose only fallback is to play the futures market. Now where was I. Oh. Please stand by for another one of my great posts. I think I feel something coming wait it was just gas from my horses ass. More later.

Of course, the lustrous glint of Silver isn't half bad either!

A. GOOSE: I don't do silver. My momma always tol' me that only the Lone Ranger can call Silver. I ain't him. I have heard, however, that these bags of junk silver contain silver coins minted prior to 1964 and represent $10,000 face value. Thus, it is possible for each bag to weigh 50 to 70 pounds avordupois.

How bout hefting a Blue Lite, eh??

I am short too; although, as a contrarian I hate to have company. From my point of view the fact that I have company is cause for concern. Makes me feel that this down move will be short-term indeed. Good luck to you and to both of us.

Gnats buzzing in your ears are far less annoying when you're landing a trophy Bass. ( Old Chinese proverb )

Or a St. Pauli's?

Thanx for asking, but no relation. This name, like many other things in this world, is assumed. I am only a long time lurker interested in monetary theory. Due to intentional supression of the subject, I must read the Kitco posts as Bart generously provides. Keep it coming!

Are you there? Read your post on puts. Are you being irrationally
exuberant? You've got me out of Au sentementality. I lost your
posting in response to stagflations' existance and silver. Come
back good buddy. ASAP.

Just a technicality. It's pre 1965 coins. Course you also have your 1965 - 1970 Kennedy Halves which are 40% silver instead of 90%. You REALLY get a heavy bag when you talk major ounces of those babies.

To All

Apologies for my retarded mongoloid and impotent "dad" - poor devil
thinks he's Walt - he's escaped from the cellar again. Honestly,
between him and Winnie and her matches I just dont know.


to Dad - come in the the house and stop eating that
dogiedoo off the lawn - the neighbors are watching -
that's NOT Vegemite !!!

to Colleen - Speaking of the Lanzerac - you wont
believe me but ITS ALL TRUE - In 1988 on my first
visit here and in the bar of the Lanzerac - I was
offered the hotel for 1 miliion rands - The owner was
selling to buy the Marine hotel in Hermanus.
Because of my fear of RSA "instability" ( caused by
excessive reading of Time magazine and other funnypapers )
I turned it down. Big Christo has it now and I dont
think you could buy it for 20 million.
You think I dont kick myself every day on this one?

Yes New Cat, quite frankly I'm being irrationally exuberant. DOW at 20:1 P/E and piddly dividends of 1.5% or so does not represent value investing. Chances of further corrections in near term are high. Nevertheless, I believe unparralled strength in economy, substantial strength in the market, and psychology of single investors, all point to highr DOW. Back to 8250 by early Spring. hence I moved a small portion of cash back in from it's safe haven.

Something to lite..en things up is good especially when you might get whip sawed tomorrow.

I for one, have finally decided to throw in the towel and run with the
bull. Lost way too much largent sitting on the sidelines waiting for
the market to collaspe. This isn't the market of 10-15 years ago.
Nothing really makes any sense anymore, there's just too much
money out there. Last week was a joke, it wouldn't suprise me if
the Dow 2-3 weeks from now is making new highs. No I don't have
a pimply faced advisor telling me all this, I've been playing the market
since a lot of you were only knee high to a grasshopper

LGB
You are right, no-one should touch leveraged options/futures unless they know them inside out. Especially if they can't afford to lose 100% of their money.
Buying them after the act instead of before is a mugs game.

Avid Chatter:

IT wouldn't surprise me that by the close on FRIDAY...we will be TESTING the lows of 10/28 and u BULLS better hope the markets find SUPPORT there...otherwise I wouldn't even wanna guess how LOW this baby could go

so I was one day too early on my call last night! if there is a POP UP at the open thursday morning ... all u BULLS better go SHORT...because for sure it s TANKSVILLE THURSDAY : )

i'm new to this so i'm posting this hoping it's valuable.... i read a guy named gene inger everyday and this is my synopsis of his thoughts tonite......An overlay of this market with 1929 is perfect. You had a leg down off the top; a rebound which we've equivalently had, and now if it follows '29, we crash, fairly soon. What faith do I have in that here? Not much. But, it is ironic. If it follows '29, we crash soon, and it's all over. Then we can buy again. ( Since it won't be a depression lasting years ) But, you don't have the breadth, you have better volume momentum readings now, and this big presumed absence of sellers. Technical momentum measures would even argue new highs for that matter, but I have a bigger picture concern. 1929 we got hit off the top like last week, we rallied six days off the bottom. On the sixth day in 1929 the Dow went to a higher high on the day ( percentage-wise comparable ) and closed unchanged for the session. From there we had one more rally approaching the high of the sixth day ( tomorrow if the pattern continues with a moderately down close ) , then the real crash started approximately 10-12 days after the bottom of the first day down. Of course that would imply that within seven days of here we would be approaching the low of last week, but that within 10-15 days we would be in the midst of the worst crash seen since 1929.

For those who view my S&P EWave stuff at http://www.concentric.net/~sellnow/general.shtml
... Let me try to put this as delicately as possible ... uh ... um ... er ... this market is toast if it doesn't print a higher high tomorrow. It's proabably toast even if it does. No point in expanding on this too much. Enough has already been said here tonite. I'm exhausted. Be back tomorrow. Good luck, folks. I wouldn't put too much faith in the bullish alternate shown here. It probably ain't gonna happen. All imo and moo.

From Temple's e-wave
Bearish count
http://www.concentric.net/~sellnow/spxdly3.gif
Bullish count
http://www.concentric.net/~sellnow/spxdly3a.gif

well well well,it temple seting up a bear trap... or will fundimentals finally take the center stage... got to love it....

I believe that next year when the Europeans bring their money home to form the Euro, our dollar will fall considerably. The money was from their Central banks selling the gold they didn't need according to Int'l law.

one final thought ... if liar's poker does form a giant "W" by creeping back up above 950, then the bull might just get a second wind. Dangerous times, folks

ok not sure when but the top must be close , maybe tomorrow

Anyone else get the impression that the market has been holding its breath for a few days, and some or all of us are going to get blasted with a messy sneeze soon?

I agree, if a bear market, right now, we are experiencing a test of the highs of the pullback. Then down she goes!

S&P 500 option settlement today 990CALL- 290, 890PUT- 700.These prices seem to be a sentiment indicator or something!

Its these over half a billion share days where the DJIA changes less than 5 bucks that question if there really are so many more bulls than bears.

oh boy now the whole crowd looks to be bearish we must be about to go up really big time:}

I haven't heard much mention of it here the last few days, perhaps someone has an educated comment on it. Cash index put prices are absolutely insane; take a look at an OEX montage... with the OEX at approximately 900, go out to an 860 put which is bid 10. If you go out to a 940 call though, it's bid 2 3/4. That's one hell of a skew!

we are due for a retracement but exactly when it occurs and from what level is the big question ....on friday we get unemployment #'s who the heck knows how the market will react....the Boyz certainly are makin it tough to have any sort of retracement before those numbers come out

retracement are always l;ong and grueling and seemingly endless declines are swift and violent... the slow climb back up could mean nothing 24 hours from now or it could mean everything

the risk of a significant pullback is higher now that it has been since 94. I do not think it is going to happen. I see a garden variety retest. but the risk is there and it is real.

all exchanges seem to be in a holding pattern, waiting... What will be the tigger.... Asia watchs NY... NY watchs Asia... Asian P&L's continue to degrade...who will yell fire first??? is this a game of chicken??? thoughts of a demented mind....

china may be suporting the HK$, trade with care there is a termendous investment by China in HK.... Watch for the peg to go first IMHO....

29 had a buying panic, there were crowds of people from the break at the top to the fall in the streets of WALL all trying to make a forture, Question, is there a crowd of "betting" public tonite at WALL... maybe no... this may be slower... the unwinding of withholing to TRUSTS ( read mutal funds ) may take a while, the crash was in HK, the US market will unwind in a slow painful, bear market....IMHO