I don't fully comprehend the mathematics of your work but I believe
LGB is wrong in drawing a black and white in todays economic/ monetary
climate. Your are as right as he. Each will have his day, one following
the other closely. Chin up, you are both artists, the twist is in the timing. I think sooner than later.

Hang Sang slipping away down -234

LGB IS Puetz.This has been a wicked hoax put on us poor gullible gold bugs.

From one frozen ( or soon to be Canuck ) to another: IMHO this is not the time to be throwing in the towel and jumping on the bandwagon unless you are value investing. IMO gold will go up but unlikely in the short term. When it does it will be the time to buy good gold mining stocks. In the mean time invseting in companies with good cash flow and low debt with conservative management will pay off. Good searching!!!

Whatta game!

Couple comments & questions on your Bearish post. Re 1929, have you factored in the massive changes in the economy since then, the post industrial high tech. revolution, the explosive earnings and productivity situation and the world market place links ( as opposed to the isolationist tendencies in 1929 ) . the strength of the dollar? The dropping deficit? The low inflation and interest rates? The record low unemployment? Many economic indicators the best they've been since the early 60's?

Also, the FED's more active role in walking the tightrope of monetary policy, AG's willingness to open the money spigot of liquidity if necessary? How about the savviness of the current investors who now have all kinds of TA at their fingertips, both on home PC's and at work? And their utter and complete lack of fear and absence of selling on "Off White" Monday last week? ( Only the PRo's were bailing ) .

Then we have the issue of IRA's and 401K's, congressional changes that make it virtually impossible for the majority of the nations employee's to consider doing anything other than investing in the market for the long haul? Massive influx of cash into the marketplace week after week? And nary a one showed fear at last week's activities?

Lot's of changes since 1929 that make it's relevance highly questionable.
I agree that a pull back tomorrow is likely, but I think we'll end the week with a gain. And march through that upper resistance in the next few months.

Hi! Thanks for the reply. The individual investor may start to doubt
the tele and think about the mortgage. He may also run before the street
expects. Do you have a backup plan for a non-option investor? PS Puetz
and you are the yin and yang. I'm in the middle with respect for both.
Matter and anti-matter and me the lonely pin head in th middle. LIFE,
love/hate it.

GC Z7
Dec. Gold
3136
-9
-0.3
3145
3136
22.0K

Schitzophrenia? That is a tough call. Which one will have the best 2-3
year return. I wan't an unbiased reply. Hep?

Lookie here who I found in The Good Cape Breton. This is a real mans canoe......er........kayak

You go Ted!!

away...to hunt for whales


I think your analysis of current situation makes sense. With the amount of money that pours into the stock market from pension funds, etc and 401K's and RRSP money in Canada the market has to go up over the next few years. Baby boomers too are inheriting alot of money too. They have bought everything they'll ever need alkready so what are they going to do but put the money into the market. I don't see many individuals fooling around with gold directly. They'll invest in gold primarily through gold mining companies.

Who will have the best 2-3 year return? Well to answer that you might want to ask, who had the best 2-3 yr. return so far? 2-4 year? 2-5 year? 2-6 year? 2-7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14 year?? ;- ) How about the best track record between the two when they make specific short term calls on specific dates? ( The dates of the Eclipse, following Full Moon, and Halloween come to mind )

Umm, bad news Bears have cost investors Billions in the past few years. their message never changes as the market continue to laugh and roar higher. Mind you I'm not a head in the sand "Crash will never happen again" kinda guy. A crash most certainly WILL happen. The big question is when eh?

If the pac rim, asia, and a. greenspan are printing money to support
their economies and/or thier markets what trickle down time do you see
for inflation/ stagflation. I heard a talking head say he felt it was
no new era economy but one like the LBJ 60s. Lead me but not to irrational exuberance.

Methinks that the Bullish LGB makes much sense. I do like Gold though.

Well AG is far more terrified of inflation than anything alse, so he won't open the Spigots unless there's a horrific crises at hand. The Asian problem children are suffering deflation, not inflation, as they devalue their currencies in self protection. It's a world marketplace for them, but for us they are only a small sliver of the pie.

Good night to everyone but LGB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OK,OK,OK! No schitzophrenia. Prognosticate! I don't wan't to have my pants down for anyone except my wife. The site is too scary. Lead
in a defensive manner if need be. BUT LEAD.

Lazlo T and any monetarists--Here is a link to some articles by the Austrian School of Economics. The "Oil vs. Inflation Myth" is an especially good read. http://www.labyrinth.net.au/~gjackson/austndx.html

If the asians deflate and start making those chips at $1us what does
that do to the system? Yea, GO CHINA, or lets bomb the competition
in the name of guns and butter. Did I make the correct analogy. I'm
not a business major.

The challenge in the market is to invest in those companies whose shares have the greatest probability of rising either in the short or long term depending on your goals. There was a post about Bema earlier. This is a good example of a poor investment that is going down when the "market" which is only an average of some of the stocks in a particular market is going up. This happens all the time. Wise investors can make money being long in any market.

I think your analitical skills are wonderful. Please don't let words
inspire you to evil anger. I need your feedback over the next year or
two. PS So does everyone else. I like you when you are not angry. You
are marked for helping others, please don't let your yin cause you to
miss something important that may change your judgement ( yin vs yang )
Thanks, talk soon.

The funny thing about the recent threat ( or hope ) of a bear market is that the junior mining sector in Canada has been in a brutal bear market ever since the spring. Many many socks are at 20% of the value they were in the spring. If the Dow fell that much it would be at 1600.

KORONDY,
sorry!its update news from other system.Maybe later,u 'll find around the evening news...off this evening to thailand for holiday, will check more people's opinions about the coming new govt...wet monsoon around!Time for emergency unit set up.....floodyyyyyyy!
g' day

DISNEY... If you are there do you have any knowledge/feelings/info about Vaal Reef or Kloof? They are both getting killed.

El Nino freaks, here is an "info node"for all things, well, El Nino. http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/lib/elninolinks/

Dork: are you LGB? If so, nite.

Appreciate the supportive words NewCat. For me, it's a refreshing change from the enormous outpouring of profane abuse that is usually tossed my way. ( Often by folks who are telling me how mean spirited my posts are....I mean WERE!! )

BTW, Japan and Taiwan markets firming nicely at the moment. The rest of the Pac rim dropping.

Nope NewCat, Dork is the guy who made the HorsesAss post and a few others . Kuston I believe. However, I am signing off. Have a profitable tommorrow Kitcoites! ( Yes, even you Puetz, if that's possible!! )

LGB 23:01: Thank you for the clarification. Do you think GE is good
for Globalstar in the long run? I spent 2 years at GE, meet
alot of great people but wouldn't wish working there on anyone.

Yes, I agree Schwartz has done a great job with the stock up to this
point.

Unbeknownst to many, the EMU is a huge drain on IT resources. Jan. 1, 1999 may be crash and burn day for EMU. To the anti Gold warriors-- ( :- ) http://www.plesman.com/cc/97july07/n1cc01a.htm

LGB - Let me refrase that last question. How do you think GE will help
Globalstar survive in the long run? Other then capital, which I didn't
think was a problem what can they offer?

For Larryn -

I dont trade either one but-

I think Vaal is a good mine - It is probably getting
killed NOW because it got killed less before. But I am
told that at these prices, Southvaal is a better entry
into the operation. Nonetheless, I think a lot of it.
I dont like Kloof at all - they are weighed down
by the 2 unproductive divisions, Leeudoorn and
Libanon, both of which are useless. Kloof itself is
one of the top mines in the world, but it has to carry
these two dogs. It should bite bullet, close them, fire
workers. After that, buy it.

Since I posted I am please to say that I find the decorum of the Kitco
site most satisfactory. I enjoy most posts and can not understand that
most have expressed disfavour at some time towards LGB and Hepcat. I
believe they may be astute gentleman and their records speak for themselves. GOLD~~~~~~}2***********

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/05/z0009_99.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/04/z0009_25.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/04/z0009_20.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/04/y0004_z00_6.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/05/z0000_z00_32.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/11/04/y0007_y00_58.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/05/y0004_z00_23.html

Hey, baby, baby, it's a wild world
It's hard to get by just upon a smile


:- )

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/04/y0023_z00_28.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/11/05/washington_dateline_general_news/austriaus_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/05/z0000_z00_37.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/05/cci_y0004_2.html

From an anonymous reader of DEAR ABBY......

A man went into a fortune-teller's shop and waited for a reading. The
fortune-teller gazed into the crystal ball and said, "You will be poor
and unhappy until you are 45 years old."

"Then what will happen?" asked the man.

The fortune-teller replied, "Then you'll get used to it."

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/04/y0003_z00_3.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/31/y0023_z00_25.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/03/z0000_z00_11.html

I'm wondering if the CB's have a contingency plan for year2000 ( or other causes ) currency panic. Here's the scenario I'm contemplating.

If we have a crash or a bear or an oil increase or other dislocation of capital ( US$ drop ) now or in the near future we WILL see an increase in price of gold. The last panic sell in the equities market shook up the complacency abit. Some of those ( a small number ) went out to buy gold and basicly over ran the small available stocks. Now I think the coin/bullion dealers have orders in to the various mints for supply. That is why we are having 10 - 15 day back orders.

Let us suppose gold becomes a focus of attention again as an alternative to paper. Gold would then soak up alot of capital and complicate the CB's efforts to manage their money/credit supply. The more gold increases in price the harder it is for CB's to deny its role. It would act like a storage battery or a dam holding a large charge of captial that is uncontrollable by the paper system.

Enter year 2000. At the dawn of year 1999 we will start to see some really heavy publicity about the unpreparedness of most systems. Real problems will begin to surface in system. The Euro will also cause havoc as we have read recently that this comes at a very bad time since y2000 is draining resources. Now Euro code alterations compound this problem by 4 to 6 fold. Chaos begins to unfold in paper currencies. Gold accelarates in price further complicating monetary policy.

Gold begins to act like a gigantic storage battery: the amount of money being invested in purchasing gold as a safe store is skyrocketing. CB's are creating money but it is being used to buy gold. This creates an intense situation where gold panic buying creates an uncontrollable amount of capital that can not be turned off with a spigot like credit in electronic form.

The only choice the CB's as a group would have in a situation where confidence in currency of any kind is plummeting is to ... DUMP PHYSICAL GOLD ON THE MARKET TO KILL IT.

In the past few years a number of countries have been doing, what appears to our eyes to be, stupid tricks in selling gold reserves down. Is there a method to this madness? Is it a forewarning that CB's are more than willing to use gold reserves as the final weapon in defending the fiat money system?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/05/wmb_z0000_1.html

Donald -

A few days ago there was a url posted for an article and chart of the relationship between the growth of treasury debt and the Dow. I found the article compelling and the chart rivetting; I copied the chart, but didn't bookmark the location. Do you remember it??

Thanks. . .

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/05/z0009_107.html

The entire global market mess basically started when Nixon severed the gold tie to the dollar. The only way the economies of the world can run properly is if money is gold, gold is money.

The advent of electric money is a farce.

Smithy: Try here: http://the-privateer.com/sample/dowdebt.html

To: A. Goose
Sorry, lack of clairty on my part. I WASNT referring to the Goldilocks/New Age Paradigm!

1. Ref: Financial Times, Preparing for Emu, Tuesday, Nov 4, 1997

Germans will find their postal savings account, replete with 50,000 plump DM, slimmed down to a svelte E. 25,000.. Can we call that deflation? I think not.

( The Times actually used the following parking at 16 DM will be E. 8. Germans wont be too upset by that! Thats a good deal! They will be less enthralled with the reality of my example. )

2. Inflation and/or deflation are meaningful measures only when held against some reasonably stable benchmark. The old benchmarks are GONE ( or, more accurately, being done away with ) ( .Devaluation and/or revaluation may be more useful terms for our time. )

3. There wont be inflation or deflation, there will be INSTABILITY. Some things will cost a lot ( shortages ) ; some things wont sell at any sustaining price ( overages ) .

4. Well loose sight of the core ( and the Winners Circle ) if we let ourselves be distracted by old terms, used now to obfuscate reality.

5. Gold is 100 SDR ( give or take a bit ) . Buy low. Sell high. And remember the First Gold Bug of Consequence: Sir Isaac Newton, the Master of the Mint who first pegged the pound to gold. .

When we think of Isaac Newton, we think of calculus, optics, mechanics, the laws of motion, the Principia, gravity, and a whole breathtaking array of scientific achievement. We do not think of Isaac Newton, Master of the Mint; but in 1717 this Master of the Mint said that one guinea, that is, 21 shillings, would be worth 129.4 grams of gold, and thereby, he said, WE INTEND THIS CURRENCY TO HOLD ITS VALUE.

Today we have The Syndrone of Exchange-Rate-Based Stalization and the Uncertain Duration of Currency. FRB:IFDP, paper number 548..

My views are:
1 ) the recent stock market crash did not clean out the system and restore it to a fair and reasonable levels - it is still a mania. This troubles me as if that clean out didn't work, the next one will not be a clean out but a wipe out. If that happens that will be ( initially anyway ) intensely deflationary and the best thing to hold will be currency in your possession.

2 ) we've seen a run on 16 banks in Indonesia, and continued instability in Asia. If this worsens, a Dow wipeout becomes a distinct possibility, and if there are more runs on banks in other parts of the world it could happen here. Therefore one might a ) keep some physical cash stashed and b ) some bullion. For deflation you have the cash, and you are hedged against inflation with some bullion, and hence well placed to ride out a possible nasty storm. Arguments with this strategy are invited.

3 ) when I store cash and bullion I run into two practical problems. Currency can get damp and mouldy, and silver gets a dark brown/black tarnish ( rust/oxidation ) ; how do people store these things in practise? In zip lock bags? Keep the container/safe in a warm dry place? If you keep it all away from your house where damp is a real issue, how does one handle that? Any suggestions, anyone?

Allen, I have done some calculations for you. I have assumed the total Gold supply is 85,000 tons. Rounding off, that is 3 billion ounces. At 3-2-5, that totals about 1 trillion $.

November 5, 1997
Hirsch to pay regulators $140,000

TORONTO ( CP ) - Money manager Veronika Hirsch agreed Wednesday to pay almost $140,000 in penalties and costs after an investigation showed she falsified information when buying securities in a B.C. gold company last
year.
Under the terms of a settlement reached with regulators in Ontario and
British Columbia, Hirsch must pay $20,000 towards the cost of the
investigation, $20,000 in penalties and an additional $99,573 contribution to the B.C. Securities Commission education fund.
The deal comes after a year-long probe into allegations that Hirsch and
analyst Sam Magid used false information to buy warrants issued by Oliver
Gold Corp. of Vancouver. "The agreement includes an admission by both Hirsch and Magid that they acted against the public interest," the B.C. Securities Commission said in a statement.

Good Morning All, Donald, there appears to be some conflict between your 6:19 and your 6:24. Continued outflow from high-yield funds and recovery in junk bond yields. Dealers stocking up?

Tolerant 1:

Electronic money may be a farce but the issue staring us all in the face is that an attempt to get the world on it is inevitable ( and already underway ) and events are shaping up that the conversion process will be a debacle. Bear in mind that if we get an economic/stock market/money upheaval there will be a strong lobhy that says "money in the form we have had has been proven by the recent upsets not to work in today's world, we need to convert to the electronic form" and as usual we the people are not consulted nor get a vote, and it is instituted. The looming possibility/probability of this event is something I give a lot of thought to. I agree that that because severing convertability between bullion and money has not worked and will soon self destruct, a return to some kind of convertabilty is inevitable, but it will also be linked to electronic money by necessity. What this will look like is anybodies' guess.

November 5, 1997
Bre-X passes into corporate history

CALGARY ( CP ) - An Alberta court finally wrote the ending to an embarrassing chapter in Canadian gold mining history Wednesday when it
approved a plan to petition Bre-X Minerals Ltd. into bankruptcy. Queen's Bench Justice Robert Cairns ordered the disgraced gold explorer to voluntarily file for bankruptcy during a court hearing in Calgary.

Cairns ordered Bre-X parent company Bresea Resources Ltd. into
bankruptcy as well, but the ink was barely dry on that order before Bresea lawyer Howard Gorman was granted a stay pending an appeal.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Bre-X.html

http://lp-llc.com/cents/roach.shtml

Hal - thanks for your help - that was the site I was looking for.

Smithy, getsome PVC pipes and cut them to desired length. Seal the ends with PVC caps and sealant. This makes a convenient, air tight, water proof container for coins or paper, that is easy to conceal.

Smithy, HAL: Thanks. I recalled seeing the post but couldn't remember where.

Thursday, November 6, 1997
Rate hike expected soon
Currency players getting impatient for Thiessen to move

By DAVID THOMAS
Economics Reporter The Financial Post
The Bank of Canada pursued its most aggressive defence of the C$ in nearly three years last month, spending more than $1.6 billion to prop up the sagging loonie, according to government figures released yesterday.
The currency came under fire in the past two weeks as part of global market volatility, after Asian currency and market turmoil spilled over into North America.

The C$ has since stabilized, in part because of the bank's defence, but also because of the belief it is poised to raise interest rates.
Economists and currency traders are waiting impatiently, expecting bank governor Gordon Thiessen to announce the rise as early as this morning or tomorrow.

"There is a definite feeling that the bank is going to raise rates any day," said Steve Butler, a senior manager of foreign exchange trading at Bank of Nova Scotia. "A lot of players are tired of the rhetoric and want to see some action."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/FP/econ_nov6_ratehikeex.html

Carl: A keen observation on junk bonds. I had not noticed it. Looks like the public got out and someone, other than the public, picked them up. I can assure you that I was not involved at either side of that trade!

November 6, 1997
FOCUS-Central banks act again to help rupiah

SINGAPORE, Nov 6 ( Reuters ) - Talk of coordinated central bank intervention to support the Indonesian rupiah helped most Southeast Asian currencies recoup early losses on Thursday.

Dealers said regional currencies reversed track after the Indonesian rupiah jumped to around 3,260 to the dollar from its lows of 3,330 in afternoon trade.

The move triggered strong speculation the Monetary Authority of Singapore ( MAS ) had intervened to buy rupiah with Bank Indonesia in a move similar to Monday's joint intervention which also included the Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) .

The MAS later confirmed it had intervened in concert with Bank Indonesia and the BOJ, but gave no further details.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/ASIA-CURRENCIES.html

Smithy: I think you are confusing two different issues. I forgot to enter this into my previous post. When Nixon severed the gold tie he blatantly defaulted the US dollar and therefore the government. Nuff said.

Electric money is not the problem nor the culprit. It is merely the messenger, electricity. It is the message that is an abomination. Figment standard paper money has no value. It is not stable, it can be created out of thin air.

Moving something of value around at the speed of light does not create problems.

Take my e-gold account. I can zap anyone of four metals around the globe or to the space station for that matter. This money is one hundred percent backed by metal, not a promise.

Paper figment standard paper has no real value. In a matter of a few days the dollar could go from something of value to worthless. This could never happen with my e-gold money as it will always have a value. You can trade it for something, worthless paper is simply that, worthless.

Thursday, November 6, 1997
Land claims agreement seen transforming Inuit,Labrador

By ALAN TOULIN
Ottawa Bureau Chief The Financial Post
A land claims settlement made public yesterday will see the Labrador Inuit receive $255 million and future royalty revenues from mineral, oil and gas developments over 28,000 square miles.

Newfoundland Premier Brian Tobin described the agreement with the Labrador Inuit Association, which was accepted by the association's board, as the best achieved in Canada. "It's as good or better than any other settlement in place in the country today," Tobin said. In addition to the land and royalties, the Inuit who live in five communities in Labrador will become self-governing and will hold title to their lands in
perpetuity.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/nov6_landclaims.html

Hi 6Pak: Not to worry. The fundamentals are sound. The economy is strong. Asia is only a tiny part of our business. Stocks always go up on the long haul. The Fed has a plan to take care of any problems that might develop. Did I miss any?

Tolerant1: I visited that e.gold site after your comments yesterday. It seems to me that in the U.S. each withdrawal or switch on the account would be a tax reportable event. How do they deal with that?

Smithy
Good charts and info at this site.
http://www.cpcug.org/user/invest/bigpic2.html

Allen ( USA ) : your 06:23 is thought-provoking as usual -- Just how far are the central banks willing to go to protect the current financial system? Will they be satisfied with derivative-type gold price manipulation only, or will they risk actual gold sales? These must be publicly announced at some point I think in most countries, unlike the derivatives stuff.
Perhaps all this hype about Switzerland is a massive PR ploy to prepare for real gold sales. If the public is properly prepared, maybe they will not complain when the gold disappears. I repeat my comment about Ft Knox. If this gold goes, the effect will be bullish for gold, not bearish.
I think one wild card in all of this is that the CB's may be gambling that new oil supplies may come on line soon. They are caught between a rock and a hard place, as long as oil supplies are scant.

LGB
Back in 1929, you would have commented on the massive changes in the economy since the 1860's, the post industrial revolution, the explosive earnings and productivity situation and the world market place. The strength of the dollar. The low inflation and interest rates. The record low unemployment. Many economic indicators the best they've been since the early 1860's.

Sounds familiar well you wrote those words, I just swapped the dates.
I won't say all the criteria is accurate, just pointing out the concept.

If you were to buy shares today, you wouldn't be doing it for the dividends, you would be after the capital growth.
Have a look at DELL and see what capital growth looks like. Room for more you think?
AG has basically said this blow-off was necessary and if the market was going to go into another leg-up that he would cap it, like he did last time on the 8/10.
Logically, if there is no point in chasing the dividends, and future capital growth has been capped, why would you hold, when your money isn't growing at 30% pa.

Too many people in this mania can see only how good it is. It doesn't get better than this!!!
They have no future sight. They make their decisions based on past actions.
How many bulls have ever seen a bear?

If you were around in 1929 you would see the mania for what it truly is.
And this is a mania.

How many Americans follow their trading seriously?
How many times a day do you talk to someone, about what's going on within the market?
How many minutes a day do you talk to someone, about what's going on within the market?

How many hours per day on TV or elsewhere in the media, are devoted to the market?
How many company codes i.e. INTC, can you and your friends recite from memory.

If you were to view the mania in a sort of quantum perspective:
How many minutes per day X ( multiplied by ) how big a percentage of the population Y,
Spend how much energy directed towards the stock market Z.
Formula : X x Y = Z
Now if you were to graph this concept, you would realize the size of the mania.

Comments from 1929:
--- An irresistible speculative addiction swept Wall Street in 1928.
---Every volume record at the NYSE - daily -weekly - monthly - was broken again and again.
---While markets warning signs abounded, most players wanted "one more hand".
---By the end of summer, stock prices, margin debt, and speculative fever were at all time records,
---As were price earning ratios.
---Despite the lofty levels of stocks, there was a good feeling about the "new era".

Have a look at what is happening around you, you say no fear.
What caused what happened last week.
What are all the global experts saying?

If the markets were as perfect as you say, then the events that unfolded last week
Should never have happened.

This stage of the markets is referred to as denial.
And you seem to fit the term of denial well.
Caution is called for.
There is more risk within these markets than ever before.

Dow short term fall
Notice the mania in the volumes.
Notice the bars - do they look safe?
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Dowj.gif

Dow long term fall
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Dowi.gif



Daily swing chart
If we are to get a sharp down move the swing will start to form a new down leg - very bearish IMHO
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Swi11.gif

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Didnt' say so last night, but no matter how strong our short-term rally is in the stock market, AG must stop it when the DOW is 8000+ or so. He does not want a repeat of the deflationary market runup that preceeded the Japanese market crash of 1990. As the year 2000 electtions approach, he will loosen up on the control, as the market is always supposed to look good before a presidentual election.
Goodluck everyone on your investing -- beware a downturn in gold for the short term. Looks like Saddam Hussein is fiddling with gyros - Christmas presents for his family -- or is the Inspection team right that something is up?

Donald
I dont know if you have already posted.
Shaky stocks keep US, Japan quiet on forex-dealers
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/z0000_z00_5.html

Nick@Aussie: Thanks for posting that Temple E-Wave site. I notice that he is calling the recent S&P high a wave 3 while the Prechter E-Wave people are labeling it a 5. While both see the next wave down what comes after is quite a bit different. Temple sees a new high, Prechter does not. Do you have an opinion from your own observations? I seem to side with Prechter but from a fundamental outlook, not from any charting expertise.

JTF=ANOTHER

JTF: On Fed activity during election years. Of course they will admit to nothing but I feel they try to comfort the president in power when he is up for a second term. Year 2000 will be an open race as an incumbent is not running. The Fed would be less likely to favor anyone. If we were in a financial crisis, and the parties had widely different views on how to solve it, the Fed might slant their policy in favor of their preferred candidates solution.

Interesting site
http://adams.patriot.net/~bernkopf/

Looks like the baby was pretty sick overnight on the 24hr chart.

Donald: I think the best thing for you to do is to go to the e-gold page and click on the accounting link. It explains the answers to your questions.

I do not mean to be evasive but I am no expert on this particular.

Email Mr. Jackson off the e-gold site. You will get prompt attention and a detailed response. I have found him to be honest, straight forward and extremely helpful. That I can tell you with conviction as I have always found him to be so.

http://www.tfc.com/syndication/current.cgi?tfc+zacks

RE your post yesterday; I can't find a symbol for Rydex Ursa, what is it'n what's it invested in?

Hi Badger: The fund symbol is RYURX. It is an S&P Index fund that is fully short the S&P Index. When the S&P falls, RYURX will rise in equal proportion.

Donald
I have insurance taken out for a repeat of 29, I think that it'll end up lots worse than 87 in the long run.

LGB
Have a good read
http://www.tfc.com/syndication/current.cgi?tfc+zacks

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Country legend's son reveals
dad's horrifying secret



The ENQUIRER made numerous attempts to
contact Merle Haggard so he could
comment on the charges made by his son Marty -- but none of our
messages were returned.
To make sure we got Merle's point of view, we also contacted
Haggard's manager Bob Newcomb who denied all the charges.
Marty's siblings Dana and Kelli also spoke at length to The
ENQUIRER. They defended their father and called their brother a
liar. They blame their mother for causing some of the problems.
But in a pointed admission, Dana did acknowledge that Merle had
problems in the past with drugs, women and prison.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/z0009_41.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/y0004_z00_7.html

Anyone seen this site? Very easy and informative, also free! Offers a little help in analysis and chart reading. http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/

Has there ever been more of a loser investment than gold in the past 17 years. Even if it were to return to its past glories, the crash in the
price of gold is far worse than any bear market in equities. You talk about gold as if we were all still living in the 1920s. Get over it, the world has changed. Globalization, and technological change make for a very different world than that of 1929. Its not even paper money any more, its e-money. And the central banks can make it and destroy in a moments notice. Gold is an ancient relic. It will never be a center piece of anything important beyond the imaginations of some of the contributors to this group.

Nick: Curious about your insurance. Currently I have spread assets around as insurance policy of sorts. From my posts you know that I utilize metal, metal stocks, e-gold, specific picks from general stocks,bank cash, in hand cash.

What items do you lean to.

I agree with much of your thinking and your posts have a prudent well thought out spectrum to them. Just curious.

This gold stock bear market is approaching a climax. The juniors collapsed first, now the big boys are trying to catch up. The global gold mining industry is about to enter a DEPRESSION. Looks like the XAU still has another 10-30% to go on the downside depending on how bullion performs. But once the bottom is the upside potential for patient investors will be incredible.

EB: What would have to happen to turn you bullish on gold?

Karlito: How old are you?

Kitco detective: Why don't you tell us who you are? Are you one of the several who hide behind several ID's. There are at least two on this site who change ID's like the weather. I may tire of this and decide that any information I gather is not worht dissemininating. Have you noticed that ANOTHER is a determined gold bull -- as Kiwi I think noted? If you were really an astute detective you would have noticed the cultural difference in his post --he was not raised in a western culture. You will also notice I disagree with him on several matters -- you see he is learning from us also how the western world views our financial system. Open your eyes and maybe you will see for yourself. You are the only one that loses, not me.

George: Watch what happens when a few hundred million people flip out and start to look for gold...in the ground, at dealers. The gold depression will go from famine to feast in no time.

Disregard JTF'S latest attempt ( pathetic ) to distance himself from the reality that he IS ANOTHER and that HE is the master of multiple handles----the dis-imformation campaign is in full swing! Watch out fellow gold bugs!!

Donald: Good morning! Always a pleasure conversing with you. Another busy day for me at work with a new computer system -- bugs to iron out. Hardware and peopleware.
You are right I think generally about the next election and the markets-- since Clinton cannot run again! However, Clinton has a stranglehold on the incumbent party, and for the moment has a free ticket to choose his designee to continue the "dynasty". Al Gore, or Hillary? AG will not be immune to influence.
If the markets head down near election time, it will probably be because of outside influences, such as Clinton's star being tarnished ( notice the FBI raids in Arkansas yesterday? -- is our Janet Reno tiring of the charade? ) . Another possibility is a Middle East crisis -- the perfect way for Clinton to raise his rating -- and noone will complain about oil prices or a drooping market.
Any word about Brazil? The El Nino connection means to me they are vulnerable -- interest rate still in the 40% range?
will check in later ----

In a bizarre Whitewater discovery, a repair-shop owner
opened the trunk of a tornado-damaged car and found a
cashier's check for more than $20,000 payable to Bill Clinton
from his former business partner's savings and loan
http://www.washtimes.com/news/news3.html#link

Kitco Detective: I have never seen you post before. What ID will you use tommorrow, and what ID did you use yesterday? Gum Shoes? You should be worried about learning the truth -- you will never learn that by focusing on ANOTHER and me -- or you have not learned how to use the internet. You must correlate reams of data from many sources. Kitco represents about 1/10 of my data sources over the last six months. In fact, I use Kitco for ideas, and information sources, complements of the productive people who post web sites , unlike you.

Thanks to all who responded to my question. Whoever said "we'd rather be 1 year early than 1 day late" really hit home for me. I just rolled over my 401K into an IRA and received some very strange looks when I instructed the bank to put 50% into their Gold mutual fund. He thought I was either on drugs or just plain stupid and tried to talk me out of making such an illogical choice. Good day to all.

I have this itch about the manner of expression used by ANOTHER. It's familiar, but I can't place it. For example, he/she used "show" for "look" as in "They are not as stupid as they show." Obviously, English isn't his/her first language, but somehow I recognize the speech, but can't place it. Russian? Hungarian? Any thoughts?

Looks like ANOTHER has kept his record. Apparently everytime he posts gold drops.

Get out now while you can. This stock market stinks to high heaven.
Snyavshy golovu po volosam ne plachut. = "Once your head's been cut off, it won't be any use crying about your hair."

Nick @ Aussie

Beaudy,mate. Thanks for the URL. I'm born and bred from Sydney and migrated to Calif. 15 years ago to live with the septic tanks ( Aussie rhyming slang ) . I enjoy the Aust. contributions, especially yours.

Tolerant
The insurance I speak of is deep way out of the money puts that I purchased at ridiculously cheap prices.

Of course these puts will only work in the event of a fall.
But the bigger the fall the bigger the payout.

If there is a big crash and the banks get burnt, I have a large mortgage that could put my other assets at risk if it was called upon.
For the sake of a few thousand dollars I feel that the rest of my debt/equity position has been insured.
Its kind of like locking in the profits that I have accrued from my properties over the last few years.



If any, only one message was conveyed Monday by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the rest of the world. His political statement at the start of the Israeli Knesset can serve an excellent recipe for the upcoming war in the Middle East.
http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/971027/1997102743.html

Nick: smart

I confess: I am the only poster here. All the various handles are just me arguing back & forth. My psychologist thought it would be good therapy for a gold bug. Sorry for the inconvenience.

All,
Someone posted a URL for the CPI composition ( s ) - can't find it in bookmarks. Could somebody re-post? Thanks in advance. CMH

SDRer:
. Gold is 100 SDR ( give or take a bit ) .

Is there anyway to find out how companies/governments are spending/using SDR's? On gold, oil ... .

The "flight to quality" into the U.S. induced such a tremendous
rise in the US$ that those currencies pegged to the greenback
came under pressure. The underlying assets in Asia and South
America became overvalued. They are not worth as much as
implied by the present value of the US$. It is important to
understand that the flight from the Euro into the US$ is the first
and main reason for the present currency crisis in Asia:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/orpailleur1103.html

It ( SDR ) is a CURRENCY! Check out the currency converter below.

http://www.port-holeinc.com/cgi-port-holeinc/currency.pl.cgi

They list SDR as one of the currencies you can convert from and/or to.

Still working on the other bits. IMF likes ( evidently ) to keep this information quiet.

I'm not sure if I'm in a Kafka novelette, or stuck in an Orwell chapter.

It ( SDR ) is a CURRENCY! Check out the currency converter below.

http://www.port-holeinc.com/cgi-port-holeinc/currency.pl.cgi

They list SDR as one of the currencies you can convert from and/or to.

Still working on the other bits. IMF likes ( evidently ) to keep this information quiet.

I'm not sure if I'm in a Kafka novelette, or stuck in an Orwell chapter.

DISINFORMATION_HANDLE_ALLEN: Or can I call you Hepcat? I like the handle Hepcat. In keeping with your role as a DISINFORMATION_HANDLE.GOOD_GUY you have done a good job of supplying us with a grain of truth while planting the seed of a big lie ( your post of 6:23 ) . As you well know it is the perception of the gold sales ( by anyone ) that is what must be stressed by your DISINFORMATION_MACHINE. Of course the purchases of USA_GOLD_EAGLES are up about 170% year over year in this country but this is not important. As you also well know the announcement of a large gold sale by say the USA or some other large central bank will have a profound short term effect on the price of gold. Do you have inside information on the timing of such an announcement? As to the actual sales of gold, when the world in thrall of y2k the actual sale of say 100 million ounces of gold ( by anyone ) will be seen as the act of a fool.

Dec. gold down .90...Dow down...But it's a spectacular ( 56 degrees+ sunny ) day and too damn nice ta sit in front of this machine!! Time for seakayaking and the search for Fin Whales.....I expect gold to be soarin by the time I get back.....EB: WAKE UP....and smell the java

Ted -- I feel the same way! Slight overcast but a nice day! Too nice to be here!

Just as I thought! You're also trading gold with yourself, constituting approximately 75% of the average day's AU market activity worldwide, aren't you? Just one problem - What has happened to cause you to come clean?

Man's character is a product of his premises. Alan Greenspan will add liquidity to save the world. The current circumstances make the ideal man possible -- and necessary. Gold? Someday, perhaps, but not soon.

Down: Gold / DJIA / AMEX / NYSE / Nasdaq / S&P 500 / Oil / T-Bond yield


Up: Nothing

Wow! The NEW MOON is really calling the current
downtrend in the XAU. Don't look for an upward
trend change until the next full moon ( not that
one will occur then ) . At least, until then, it's
down, down, down in the XAU!

Septic tanks = Yanks ?

How's the trouble and strife ?

G'day !

Once the XAU hits 0 the upside potential will be enormous.

I just finished reading yesterdays posts. It was better than I thought...BUT I just have to comment on ONE thing. It is regarding the 'off white Monday' by none other than...our resident stock market Pundit. I wanted all to read it word for word...who is full of crap?

Date: Mon Oct 27 1997 16:02
LGB ( @Humilty Central, Hi Puetz ) ID#269409:
Congratulations Puetz. A BIG congratulations. A HUGE congratulations, a
GARGANTUATION congratulations. I won't shine shoes till we hit your 5750
definition of crash, BUT the Pundits calling this a "correction" are full of crap. I gotta
call it as I see it, and I've been wrong. We have a crash today, no question.

Anyone calling this anything short of a "crash" is just jerking themselves, and playing
with semantics. It's a panicky meltdown when we hit both trading stops.

You deserve credit for a big hit today. Just don't talk Moon stuff and I'll sing your
praises the rest of the week!




the praising DID continue but it has been ONLY to praise himself for his 100% accuracy...I am glad that is all behind us. We now have a NEW and IMPROVED stock market pundit...or can the leopard change his spots? Can milk not sour? Can poop not stink? Can superman not leap tall buildings? etc? etc? etc?

just having fun pundit boy ;- )

up, up, and...

AWAY!


You forgot the . It is uuuup 150 ticks. That = $937.5 per contract...hmmmmmmmmmmm...

away...to watch the  soar


Why is SPUD MASTER being attacked? Does he know something the DISINFORMATION_MACHINE does not want promulgated on this forum?

Donald: regarding capital gains for e-gold
[insert usual CYA disclaimer here: we dont claim competence to offer specific tax advice - we lack the expertise, tax laws are an arbitrary moving target anyway, go ask your mother, etc, ]
Our practice regarding gains ( losses ) :
- for every increment to ones metal balance we calculate a US$ cost basis
- all transactions which involve a drawdown of metal balance are regarded as capital gains ( or loss ) realization events

We calculate a capital gain for all drawdown events, on FIFO basis, as a convenience, for customer use. Gain is listed for each such line item in the History screen, one of the utilities accessed through the secure online Account Manager screen. The purpose of this information:
1 ) so customer can tell if they have benefited from their sojourn into the gold-as-money economy, taking all expenses and fluctuations in exchange rates into account
2 ) to facilitate the customers calculation of tax liability, if applicable

Hope this helps,
Douglas Jackson

I find it strange that the goldbug posters who think that 'paper' is worthless and gold is the only 'real' money, would appear to be value-based, cash-generation, conservative people. JUST THE OPPOSITE. You are gamblers, pure and simple. You choose gold as your gambling device, and just as sure if gold were now $1000 an ounce, you would all become goldbears. You spend most of the time dicussing puts and calls, buying short, buying S&P futures, etcetera. These are pure GAMBOLS !. You, sirs, are pure gamblers. I don't mind this, but stop cloaking yourselves in this, "one golden society" crap. You're not fooling anyone, just yourselves.

A. Goose, Carl: Interesting observations. I think ANOTHER is a perpetual gold hoarder ( like some of us ) , regardless of the current market situation. I think his comments are useful for long term analysis, with careful review of info from many sources. His perspective seems non-European, and non American. I don't think he is Oriental. He always speaks in global terms, and never speaks in specifics. I don't think he intends to mislead us, like some posters on Kitco.
In terms of what the market is actually doing, I think we need to rely on the Oldman, RJ, Nick ( @Aussie ) , George Cole, D.A. Allen ( USA ) and others.
There are more who are capable of providing useful information, but when they initiate personal attacks on others, they lose their credibility. I am amazed that a non-westerner such as ANOTHER is willing to put up with the Kitco nonsense -- he does seem to care about communicating with us enough to put up with, and he does know things we don't. Each of our sources on Kitco have their own perspective, and each of us must decide for ourselves what to do. One can never blame the gurus for our investment mistakes, especially when the advice is free.

A big move is coming in the metals after the relative calm in the 8-9 trading days since the sledgehammer fell on Friday October 24th. There was absolutely NO followthrough to that wash-out. My money says the next big move will up rather than down, as the metals are already oversold as hell ( RSI, stochastics ) The positive fundamentals ( demand overwhelming supply, crapola currencies and stock markets, overbought and overpriced toilet paper $US bonds ) will in the near future overpower the bull-Sheiss rumor-mill. ( Who's gonna dump GOLD next, Bangladesh? ) Let the A-hole CB's dump their gold at these bargain basement prices- I'll laugh 'til I cry. As has been so cogently pointed out by so many others at this site, the inflation-adjusted prices for GOLD and SILVER are unbelievably low, and the warehouses are running dry. I'm looking for 6-$8 silver by February 1998. Call me irresponsible.

Can some of our aerospace fuel-cell experts out there give a ballpark estimate for the mass of platinum-group metals used in a hydrogen fuel-cell system large enough to drive an electric car ( around 40Kw ) ? Or the amount used in Ballard's fuel cells?

Are we talking ounces, grams or milligrams? My guess is grams at best. But 5 grams x 200 million cars = 2 million pounds of platinum etc. How does that releate to above ground stocks and yearly production?

I am guessing that the bloody UN 'Greenhouse Gas' scam treaty ( besides raising the price of gasoline to $10/gallon, and making a bunch of worthless greenhouse-CO2-chit brokers rich ) will be the impetus to get fuel-cell powered cars on the streets.

George, I'm glad you asked. And a good question posed...

Question: EB - What would make you bullish on Gold?

Answer: 1998 early to mid. The EMU must play out. No more CB sales or rumors of sales. After Germany's sales. I must see a different flight to quality. It seems $ is going everywhere BUT gold. ALL indicators in TA positive. ...and my favorite... a gut feeling

George, it is all crazy and does not make sense to all Gbugs including myself. I have just removed myself from emotions ( gold obviously piques them ) and started trading the trend. This looming stox correction has left me less bearish ( short term ) , however, when this subsides and the general public starts buying more stock hand over fist gold will not bode well again. I believe this US stock market is a Juggernaut right now and I won't get in it's way. I will also not be standing underneath it either. What goes up...

I think LGB is correct in many ways regarding this US economy and Spud is also correct that it is 'propped up BS' and something will break. I do not know when this will happen but a correction we NEED. Gold, for me will have its day ( I was a BIG gold bug this summer, go back and read my posts ) and I will be there. But like Oldman says I must squeak a buck out of these markets any way I can and shorting gold is working for me.

btw 404 is the 10yr 50%...370 is another 50%...520 is another ( counting the 80's aberration... and 435 is Eldo's/Fibo's/JTF/Colleen's .618... next year will be a better year for gold ( maybe ) . The market will turn and turn and turn and I will be at every turn. right D.A.?? ;- )

away...to await the turn


Huge volume in Duban Deep following a multi-page recommendation in Blanchard's latest newsletter as "The Best Gold Buy Available". Average volume of about 500,000 shares a day and rising. Yet the stock price has barely moved. Normally I would conclude this is classical distribution aided by high-profile promotion, and would run like hell. But the current price is right at the lows. Any comments? How about you, J. Disney?

Is this Special Drawing Rights thread a joke? 1 oz of gold is not 100 SDR--its about 227 SDR ( or XDR as they are often called.

Skeptic: Sometime ago you said you had significant holdings in RD, one of the best run oil companies, I think. What is you opinion of Kiwi's post yesterday about the Saudis and the Iranis agreeing that oil prices are too low? I've noticed the that the oil exploration stocks are rising steadily, virtually independent of the current market gyrations.
Is something in the works -- any observations? A strong oil price rise would have a very negative effect on the market, with the obvious exception of the energy stocks. This might also push down the gold stocks even more ( if the central banks respond how they have recently ) .

The Central Banks may wish to tie their currencies to gold, once they have knocked down the price of gold sufficiently. Who in the their right mind would pre-announce a gold sale that would knock down the price of gold, so that they would receive less paper money for the gold they are selling.

Illogical, illogical, illogical cries out the Swiss announcement for a gold sale. The entire gold market smells like a three day old dead fish.

Years ago there were rumors in Washington about tying the US currency to gold at $270 an ounce and that is exactly the price that the big wigs in Washington always quote gold being worth.

With the majority of analysts predicting one last bear climax for gold, the bear market in gold may be over.

When any market defies reality, it is reality that always wins.

History ***PROVES*** fiat-based instruments, of which fiat paper currency is the most odious example, ARE worthless - they only have value as long as public perception, or confidence is maintained in them. At best this is dishonest, at worst it is criminal intent to defraud. The Fed & other CBs create money out of nothing, money for which you and I slave away, while they live like Kings & Queens. Must be nice to have a monoploy on the creation of 'money'. But when free women and men use gold or silver, etc., the bankers can no longer 'create' 'money'. This does not sit well with a group that is use to giving orders & living well. Hence the unremitting hate & loathing directed at gold.

There is ***NO*** point in human history at which gold has been worthless.

Ah, but WE are enlightened 21st Century superpeople. With it. It'll be different this time. Chuckle. I understand that your knowledge of history is rather limited. But don't worry, Witchitaw. History is always ready to reeducate those who forget Her lessons.

What's this I here Prez Clinton signed a bill to hide some nasty deaths created by burning toxic material in Nevada. I guess the government can now write you and my lives off without any legal consequences. Were all test tube dummies.

I applaud you for your incisive analysis regarding "investing" in puts, calls, etc., regardless of the underlying security/commodity ( S&P, gold, und so weiter ) as gambling. I have given up on these investments, and I am sticking to Type III $20 Liberties ( as a "confiscation-proof" bullion vehicle ) , bags of "junk silver", and "Gem" quality low-population slabbed ( only PCGS and NGC ) numismatic coins that have great eye appeal. Everything else is a crap-shoot.

With all the talks about scams and lying to the public and this correlation between OIL/GOLD I would like to raise a question.

Question: Why must we rely on fossil fuels soooo much? Why have we NOT been spending more time AND money on discovering alternate energy sources.

This is the biggest bu#tF#%@ng the general public has been taking for decades!! I guess Gold for Oil is more sexy ( and profitable ) than GOld for sunshine or wind or rain or..........?

The well HAS a bottom. We will continue to stifle this until we are between the ROCK and the HARD PLACE. And the Middle East will be holding ALL the $$$$$$. Cha-Ching!$!

away...to pull energy from the sun



am i just a naive..........................

Selby ( Toronto ) ID#28571:
Is this Special Drawing Rights thread a joke? 1 oz of gold is not 100 SDR--its about 227 SDR ( or
XDR as they are often called.

I don't think it is a joke, maybe mathmetically challangeed. It does seem that gold is approximately 227 sdr's at this time. Any time their is the creation of a new currency ( especially a world currency ) I think we should pay careful attention to it.

SDRer:
Is this a computational error?

Found it, thanks
http://www.bls.gov/cpihome.htm

EB:

Twist and turn, to and fro, up and down, rounds she goes. Every bet I ever made I won. You too? It's lot's of fun.

Sorry to disappoint. I am legitimate. The early post is something that I had been thinking about for a few days now. It is a point for discussion. Part of it taking Heavy Hitter's pinpoint 05/99 assertion that gold will plummet and 'leave its followers broke'. Did a simple graph. Asked myself why someone would be so sure about something like that. Looked at the historical situation and asked if such a thing had every happened before ( as in a market correcting so sharply in a safe haven asset, etc ) . Also looked at M. Armstrong's comments 05/97 article in London. He predicts sharp multi 100% increases in gold and gives ranges 'if people lose cofidence in paper currency system'.

As you can see from my previous posts I have advocated a somewhat extreme position in holding physical and have urged others to do the same. That would be incompatible with spreading rumors to drive the price down ( unless you think you can get it cheaper ) . Besides who cares about Kitco except us. We are a clutch of individualists who chatter about metal, mines and global conspiracies, etc. Do you think people who's foot prints are bigger than small nations care a wit about what is said here? NOT! Or at least I doubt it anyway. Yes I play the good guy but that is because goodness is healthy, productive and peaceful.

What is your thought about the prior post?

The Markets sure are calm ( and boring ) today ... everything is off and just kinda "hanging-out" ... Gold and Silver have not moved all morning. Kinda like a "cocked pistol" ... the waiting for it to go off is as bad as the BANG!!

To: All
HELP!!!!
Need some brain-power ( and stop nodding your heads sagely and muttering, She sure does!

On quest--reading IMF liquidity blurbs ( couldnt call them briefs ) came across this ABSOLUTELY
astonishing ( I think ) statement:
The title of the blurb is IMF Position ( Liquidity ) Weakens Further; the last paragraph states:
The IMF currently has no unused lines of credit and no outstanding borrowing. When supplementary resources are needed to prevent or cope with a crisis, the IMF can borrow under the General arrangements to borrow and under an ASSOCIATED AGREEMENT WITH SAUDI ARABIA...

I SMELL money--for us, not them! Mull this over, toss it around, think about the Asian contagion and the Saudis call for more oil. What is the quid pro quo!
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs\ft\survey\sup0996\11liquid.htm

A. Goose--Remember we discussed there HAD to be some Roosa Bond kinda deal in place, somewhere?
Re: your last post...just glanced. If you were working with USD SDR's yes. But I'm hot on the trail so can't stop now!

test

test

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The only conclusion that I can come to about golds' status as a 'safe haven', is this, the belief in other methods of 'insurance' must be at an all time high. Simply put, if my stock paper begins to fail, then I will sell them and go in to bonds or inflation indexed bonds. Thus gold is viewed as a pain in the ass. You have buy it. Then you have store it someplace safe. Worst of all, you will have to find someone to sell it too! Ohhhhh, the indignities of life!

One thing is clear since the market break of a week and half ago. Bonds and stocks seemed to have de-coupled. Stock indexes down, bonds rally. Stocks rally, bonds go down. Funny how that money sloshes from one bucket to the other. I still wonder, is everyone in yet? Another point to ponder, how does the incremental inflows compare to the total amount invested?

Panda: Great day in Toronto too. Temperature must have got to near 60F and the sun was shinning almost all day. I'm not sure the last "dip" was seen as the same as the earlier dips. Maybe it was. First time I remember the popular press geting into the act to the same extent. The TV coverage certainly surpassed anything seen for year and I thought that was the sort of thing that would stampede the newcomers. But it certainly didn't seem to. Maybe the newcomers are wiser than previously thought. New high its a dip--no new high its a crash?

South Korea sank deeper into a financial crisis
yesterday as its currency tumbled against the US
dollar, rekindling fears the country's financial turmoil
may soon dwarf that of Thailand and other
Southeast Asian economies.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971107013853021?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=3836

Hong Kong's most powerful property tycoons
believe residential property prices will drop up to
20 per cent from their peak and are considering
lowering the price of new flats to boost demand.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971107013853023?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2856

Selby -- No new highs mean that the stock gains are less than the interest charged on the money borrowed to buy that stock. :- ) )

Now, that's called panic. :- ) )

November 6, 1997
London police smash big U.S. bond fraud ring

LONDON, ( Reuters ) - British police said Thursday they had arrested several people, including an American, in a suspected fraud case involving $800 million in U.S. Treasury bonds.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BANKING-FRAUD.html

Tuna watchers: You should read "Geometry of the Selfish Herd" by W.D. Hamilton published I believe in the American Naturalist ( might have the journal name wrong but author and title are correct. ) Conclusion, tuna will never evolve the behavior of ganging up on sharks. Sorry, can't help it. Have to correct you "biology amatuers'.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/y0004_z00_3.html

Looked at Yvan Auger's cycles chart ( again ) . They show two configurations for the 38- and the 114-week cycles similar to the present. In the first, XAU went from 94 in 11/93 to 146 in 2/94, and in the second from 108 in 11/95 to 156 in 2/96. The way I read the stuff is that the bear phase of the 38-week cycle is ending, starting a bull phase, and the 114-week cycle is entering the cresting of its bull phase. Both should terminate around May, 1998.

"The fear is that since bankruptcies are on the rise,
and banks have to foot the bill, one day it will be
too much for them to bear," Ken Tsubouchi, a
general manager at Nomura Asset Management,
said.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971107011103082?=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2364

Steve Puetz- I agree that Brazil is a seriour threat and last week their plight was being reported and this week it seems that someone has put a HUSH on the media. Whats UP?

Tally Ho

Both gold and spoos appear to be getting whacked on Globex. GC7Z is at 312.9 ( 312.7/313.3 ) and SP7Z is at 941.20 ( 941.20/40 )

November 6, 1997
Wall Street experts warily optimistic after two strong years

BOCA RATON, Fla., ( Reuters ) - Wall Street professionals meeting after two record years expect the bull market to continue but Thursday heard warnings about rapid technology changes, outdated regulation and possible systemic shocks like last month's Hong Kong market meltdown.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/MARKETS-OUTLOOK.html

Panda: I guess that defines the conditions for panic alright. I have been using real dollars for over 15 years a decision which cuts profits and losses and aids sleep. I recall the problems for small investors when they use margin but thankfully only dimly.

I happened across CNBC today as I was scanning Lemming/Puppet Head broadcasting, and was stopped dead in my tracks by the comments of one Merton Miller, Univ. Chicago. Economist who had done major studies on the crash of 1987, I believe he is a Nobel prize winner.

Anyway. He called the recent 500+ point decline in the Dow a crash. The puppet/CNBC lemming started to interrupt, stating that it was not really a crash and......Mr Miller cut him off abruptly and pretty much said...shut your pie hole, it was a crash, I don't need to use your terminology, and I don't get paid to use all the catch phrases of the day. I'm the economist and I say it was a crash. Now, sit there and be quiet while I give you a lesson in economics.

After the interview one puppet said to the other..."I could sit here all day and listen to him."

And..................Hello....hello.....

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/z0009_76.html

* Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers Wednesday afternoon said that international
investors and other market participants should not be able to dial "911" for a bailout but should be
able to get all the information they need to anticipate any deterioration of the economies in which
they are investing.
http://www.economeister.com/curracct/971105ca/today_pe.htm

Selby -- The real wild card here, is all of those people who lined up to open those shiney new brokerage accounts after the market broke. They are the definition of, "Buy the dip!" I find it incredible that someone would commit $100,000 in the aftermath of something like that. Let me clarify that last sentence. The people who jumped in with that kind of cash were 'newbies'. They had to OPEN an account. Does this mean that they finally felt confident enough to jump in after seeing the Dow go up for five, ten, or fifteen years? That sounds like 'scared money' to me. As in, easy to scare out of this market? A good job was done in marking stocks up after the fire sale. That always entices the 'customers' back. The question remains, will those prices stick?

BBL

November 5, 1997
NAFTA thrashed in U.S. vote on tariffs

WASHINGTON ( AP ) - The North American Free Trade Agreement took a verbal thrashing in the U.S. House of Representatives shortly before legislators rejected a move to extend some of the tariff exemptions Mexico enjoys to Caribbean and Central American countries.

The House voted 234-182 to kill the bill, which would have allowed
certain Caribbean and Central American products into the United States
duty free for a 14-month period beginning in May 1988.

Opponents said the legislation - like NAFTA - would cost some U.S.
workers their jobs.
"The taxpayers of this country should not be subsidizing more loss of jobs here in the United States," Representative Benjamin Cardin ( D-Md. ) , said during debate before Tuesday's vote.

The vote could mean trouble for President Bill Clinton's request for
"fast-track" trade authority - enhanced powers to negotiate trade
agreements, said Public Citizen, a consumer group founded by Ralph Nader.

Unfortunately, time has proven that NAFTA was wrong for America," said Representative Jim Bunning ( R-Ky. ) .
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.NAFTA-Caribbean.html

PARIS, 6 - O Fundo Monetrio Internacional considera necessrias medidas
suplementares do Brasil na rea fiscal para que o pas supere os efeitos da crise
asitica. O diretor-gerente do FMI, Michel Camdessus, disse hoje em Paris que o
Brasil  "um pas vigilante da conjuntura internacional" e demonstra saber como se
defender dos efeitos da crise financeira do Sudeste da Asia.

- Sabemos que o presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso est disposto a trabalhar
com vigor na rea fiscal. Medidas nesse setor so boas e necessrias para o pas
consolidar seu sistema financeiro - disse Camdessus.

Perguntado sobre os efeitos da crise na sia sobre o Brasil, Camdessus reiterou que
o Governo brasileiro tomou medidas rpidas e adequadas mas alertou sobre os riscos
que ainda existem no pas.

- Os riscos do Brasil so o dficit corrente e o dficit pblico. Mas nos parece que o
Governo trabalha na boa direo, o que traduz a sua vigilncia sobre a conjuntura -
Camdessus.

Segundo ele, o FMI aplaude as medidas j adotadas pelo Brasil, particularmente na
elevao das taxas de juros.

* The dollar rose sharply vs. the yen after major policymaker Eisuke Sakakibara of Japan
declined to stem the yen's recent fall, saying that policy remains "unchanged". Many dealers saw
the remark as a tacit acceptance of a weak yen, helping the dollar to peak past the key Y123.45
before settling back to Y123.10 at the close. Dollar-mark ended lower at DM1.7165, pressured by
the strength in mark-yen.
http://www.economeister.com/curracct/971105ca/today_pe.htm

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/04/z0009_86.html

6Pak: If I am not mistaken, Merrill Lynch did not turn bullish on gold the last time around until it hit $800.00 - Also, if I am not mistaken, merger mania is usually a prelude to markets heading south. But that is from a historic perspective, but we now know NOW everything is different, what with paradigms and all.

SO PAULO, 6 - Apreenses sobre a liquidez das pequenas instituies brasileiras
depois da crise financeira mundial e retrao dos investidores provocaram mais um dia
de queda nas bolsas brasileiras. Na contramo, surgiram boatos de que a Telebrs
recompraria 13 bilhes de aes. Essa notcia, no entanto, no foi confirmada e aquilo
que soou como uma sinalizao de melhora no mercado, no conseguiu evitar nova
perda no valor dos ndices carioca e paulista.

Na Bolsa de Valores de So Paulo a desvalorizao foi de 5,54%, com o ndice
encerrando o dia em 9.434 pontos. A Bolsa de Valores do Rio de Janeiro fechou com
queda de 2,75%, em 35.592 pontos.

O volume financeiro da Bovespa continua forte. Os analistas comeam a associar
esses recursos ao deslocamento de investidores menores do mercado de opes,
para preferenciais de Telebrs. Eles acreditam tambm que aumentou o nmero de
operaes de "day-trade", por meio das quais os investidores compram e vendem as
aes no mesmo dia, causando um grande giro de papis. Isso ajuda a aumentar o
volume financeiro.

No mercado paulista, o volume financeiro ficou em R$ 786 milhes. Na bolsa carioca o
total movimentado ficou em R$ 16,2 milhes. O lote de mil aes preferenciais de
Telebrs concentrou 64,7% dos recursos do mercado  vista, que somaram R$ 734,7
milhes. Esse papel encerrou o dia valendo R$ 112,50, com queda de 6,94%.

Os analistas avaliam que a volta dos investidores ao mercado de aes vai ser lenta,
depois das perdas das ltimas semanas. Eles consideram tambm que o mercado
est mais pobre, tanto a nvel nacional, quanto externo e esse fator  inibidor de
negcios. As ADRs de Telebrs, que ocupavam os primeiros lugares entre as mais
negociadas na Bolsa de Nova York, caram para a 10a. posio.

Quanto aos boatos sobre a sade financeira das instituies, os analistas acreditam
realmente que as perdas das ltimas semanas colocaram alguns bancos menores em
situao difcil. Uns ponderam que o Banco Central deveria deixar essas instituies
fecharem, garantir a liquidez aos parceiros desses bancos. Eles avaliam que dessa
forma seria retomada a confiabilidade do sistema. Outros afirmam que a quebra de
instituies, neste momento, aumentaria a insegurana dos investidores e do
mercado.

The market action was just as predicted. Ifeel very sorry those stupid
individuals who buy tech stocks on a 1cent above "the street"
estimates. A good example today was Cisco SYSTEMS. They open
stock up three points and it closes lower for the day. Many of these
companies will be obsolete within two years, and the stock will be
worth 1cent. It has happened before and as far as I see its not too
far from doing the same thing!

In my view, South Korea and Thailand still hold the key to the direction of the markets. At issue is not
the currency contagion effect but the interruption of global capital flows that would result from a
serious financial accident in this region. History is dotted with examples where financial accident have
had tremendous spill-over effects which have overwhelmed the positives coming from the real sides of
the "global economy." In the late 1920s and early 1930s, the liquidity panic and the huge stockpile of
unsold commodity inventories led to a massive deflation. In this instance, the global economy did not
behave symmetrically, as the initial effects of lower interest rates to stop the spreading panic were
overwhelmed by the more powerful forces of deflation, bankruptcies, and liquidity contraction. Thus,
while the economies outside of Asia are healthy, the risks remain from this area, in my view. Since the
production of durable goods has become more commoditised, one can only wonder if the overhang of
unsold hard goods in Thailand, Korea, and elsewhere in the region is similar to the overhang of raw
materials that existed in an earlier period. I suppose only time will tell.
http://www.ms.com/gef.html

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971106/wired/stories/emu_1.html

I sold 50% of all my gold investments today.

that can mean only one thing; groan.

Eldorado: Ths stuff does indeed look awful right now. And the gold stocks are acting even worse than the metal. Good chance of a selling climax soon if this continues.

Good old ABC Nightly News reporting on the Fast Track Legislation vote
tomorrow, stated if Bill Clinton losses Fast Track, it could spell
problems for the world financial markets. Is this the excuss the big boys
will use to start the collapse???????

Heard on CBS radio, didn't catch where and who. Big time Y2K
problem with some new cash registers installed just a couple of years
ago. Credit cards expiring in '00, are not merely being rejected,
but bringing down the whole system.

Anyone despairing about the yellow now should remember what they say about truly awful motion pictures -- its so bad its good. The current horrendous action in the gold complex is typically seen in the very late, total capitulation stage of bear markets. This gold bear may or may not get much worse these next few weeks, but the end is fast approaching.

To: All
Re: Little Guy Standing Tall

Im not throwing the wrench guys, Nov 3, 1997 Barrons, page 56
Cash Track ( the column ) , entitled, A Warning Shot

Despite the hype about the little guy standing tall, equity mutual fund investors pulled $1.41 billion out of funds for the week ending Oct 20, according to AMG Data Services of Arcata, CA. They werent really wild about bond funds either, exiting to the tune of $444 million. They were even more jumpy about junk bonds, where they yanked $706 million out of fund coffers. On the emerging markets front, Latin America got hit the hardest, losing $143.4 million. Conversely, investors plunked $125 million in new money into Hong Kong.

Shall we discuss how effective the media has been in accomplishing their allotted task? And shall we lay the they wont sell till they retire? to rest? People dont always ( gasp ) do what they say they plan to do...

Sorry, that's a typo...should be, of course, Oct 29!

Donald: Your comment about G Soros makes sense. Lets say that he wants to keep some of his cash in gold stocks, but is not sure where the bottom is. His people are smart enough to sell before the sudden collapses in the gold stocks, and buy at the bottoms. Some of our fellow Kitcoites are smart enough to do this -- though I still need more practice to make money in a bear gold market.

Panda: Don't know about new investors and their backbone. Here we are encouraged to expect another corrrection and then a return to the upside for a couple of years. General belief is that Canadian stocks will not get as rocked during another correction as the US but I haven't figured out --or heard-- why yet. Contrary to some on Kitco I think the econcomy is doing fine in N America and will continue to do so for some years yet.
The important question is the effect of the asian currency problems on US debt and the resulting effect on the US internal economy. I doubt that Greenspan will be taken by surprise by any problems that we anticiapte here.

My second degree alarm was triggered at a recent party, when an
amateur movie maker, whom I had previously met, but never before had
a conversation with, started asking me about stocks.

On the other hand, to my surprise, a doctor brought up the subject
of gold, and asked if long term gold options were a good idea at
this time. This person is the son of an Asian stock broker,
who has seen the business on the local minor stock exchange drop
to less than one trade per day, three years after the peak of the
bull market. Presumably, this makes him less enthusiastic about
stocks.

Some of the comments here lately about how great the economies of the US and Canada are and the stock market is in no trouble and will go higher remind me of a cartoon I saw long ago of a father with his young son looking out the window of the fathers office over a large factory complex he owned, with smoke stacks bellowing large amounts of smoke. The father says to his son - "things just could not be better, revenues are as high as they have ever been, profits are as high as they have ever been, it's time to sell."

Korondy: ....Agree with your dates of big moves in the XAU during the period of 11/93-2/94 and 11/95-2/96. But both of these moves came after the completion of 38 weeks cycles as shown in Yauger XAU/Cycle chart of which I posted at 17:54. The point I was making was that we still had 8-11 more weeks to go of this bear phrase of the XAU and gold shares. There will be ups and downs but the overall trend is down until this particular 38 weeks cycle is ended early next year.: (

Hi Selby: I can't resist jumping into these discussions about the future. My point is always the same. The issue this time is not the economies of the world. The issue is the financial system. The financial system is not sound. Economies will suffer eventually as a result of that unsoundness.

George - your'e a perennial optimist !

and I hope your'e right. I've lost so much money on gold it just isn't true !

nomercy ( Brazil ( stocks down 5.54% S.Paulo and 2.75% Rio ) translation required ) : ALL GOING TO HELL IN A HAND BASKET!

Full agreement...global financial system is fundamentally unsound, every tick of the clock brings the systemic failure ever closer.
I think Greenspan is likely more worried about his ticker than the global village right now...he's done an okay job, all he has to do now is sit back and look confidently on while it all melts away and reiterate to the oh so shocked and stupid press that the fundamentals are fine. I'm just wondering how bad it has to get before they admit, "well we maybe entering a depression but it won't be a bad global depression...blah, blah"

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/z0000_z00_28.html

JapanNikkei 225 ^N225 8:00PM 16212.89 -320.98 -1.94%

Japan down 1.94% on the open.

Selby -- Don't ask me to judge the economy. On the one hand.... Many houses being built in the suburban Boston ( Mass. ) area. Employment seems to be high, but high tech employment is based mostly in software side of things. Hardware side of high-tech seems much softer. I believe this is due to the fact that we make very little in this country anymore. We seem to be exporting 'things' ( parts ) to the third world for assembly and re-import them back in to the U.S. for retail sale. I wonder what happens when we get Bangladeshi, or Indian, or whomever else to do software design for 10 cents on the dollar ( or less ) , and import the the 'goods' via satellite. WHHHOOOPPS! There goes the shipping business and domestic software engineering.....

TO Selby ( Toronto )
60F in Toronto.Come on. Nice. Up here not far from you 25F.

Keep your eyes on Japan. Nikkei wants to kiss 16000. No loving embrace.
Might be the last time they see each other for a while.

Mikey: I don't know how close you are but I doubt it is 40 f now that the sun has gone down.

A. Goose ( 16:36 ) Cape Breton,Nova Scotia.....Poorboys: Dow storm appears to be over for now but ocean swells continue ta roll in~~~~~~~~

What's shakin? I'll see if your around at 11:00 PM central. The wife
and the cats told me to dial you up for advice.

US signals opposition to regional rescue fund for Asia


NEW YORK, Nov 5 ( AFP ) - The United States on Wednesday
signalled its reluctance to support a regional rescue fund to
resolve financial crises in Southeast Asia.
US Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, in a speech here
to the Japan Society, insisted that the International Monetary Fund
-- rather than regional alliances -- should play the lead role in
dealing with market turbulence.
"Financial regionalism based on notions of regional reliance in
times of crisis ... carries real risks," Summers said.
Such an approach, he added, could reduce resources available for
future turmoil, or impair capacity to confront "cross-continental
crises."
Summers, answering reporters' questions following his speech,
said there was "no reason to believe that there should be any major
impact on the US economy" because of a slowdown in Southeast Asian
growth.
In his address, Summers said Japan's moves to deregulate the
financial sector reflect Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's
"understanding of the critical role that a 'free, fair, and global'
financial market will play in achieving the deep restructuring of
the Japanese economic system that will be required to support a
broad-based sustainable domestic recovery."
If Tokyo follows through on financial sector liberalization, "it
will also send a powerful message to Japan's regional neighbors, and
to others around the world, that reforms to make financial markets
more liberal and transparent are not in conflict with the task of
restoring health to a troubled financial system -- they are
essential to it."

Nice chart! Looks like 6400 is right around the corner! {:- ) }

Donald@home: I guess we are in agreement. A sound $10 economy could be in trouble if it is supporting a $100 debt.

Nikkei down 400 and the brakes dont work!!!!!!!!!

Panda, not to worry mate, all the US commercial software engineers displaced by Indian, Pakistani and Tristan de Cunha'ian overseas software can just go to work in US military software - there's such a bloody maintenance mess there they'll be employeed forever trying to straighten it out. Unless of course ... naw ... we'd never buy MiGs from Russia and SCUDs from North Korea would we????

On second thought, it'd be *so* easy for some large disgruntled Seattle-area software firm to turn it's engineers to the task of designing software viruses to precisely target & screw-up the cheap third-world competing software product. New marketing slogan: "Buy American - you do want your software to work, don't you?"

For all those who want to jump on the 'racist' march, can it now. The point of my last post was that third world labor is 'cheap' compared to the U.S. labor market. Those 'high paying' jobs ( joke! ) in high-tech are and will be replaced with the very technology that that is being created today. This very Internet that we are using right now allows for software people all over the world to create code and send it to whomever. Thus, IBM can, and is, having engineers in third world nations doing the same work that is being done over here for literally 10 on the dollar. The work is then sent over satellites or the 'net, back to the U.S. Fast Track anyone? NAFTA,GATT??? I think in the end, what we have is a very sophisticated version of Smoot-Hawley going on here. The question becomes, will it end in the same way? After all, if you can't make a FAT paycheck ( along with your wife ) , how can you afford that new house and feed the kids?

Platinum news:

PLATINUM: Futures prices fell 2.3% on the New York Mercantile
Exchange amid heavy selling from Asian dealers and large fund houses, an
indication supplies will be ample in the near-term.

Platinum prices typically are on the rise at this time of year amid buying
before the holiday period to make jewelry, but the Asian monetary crisis
apparently has lowered expectations for increased sales toward the end of
the year.

Analysts also speculated that Russia, the second-largest producer behind
South Africa, will continue selling platinum into the new year. There was
concern in the past few months that platinum and palladium buyers would
see a reprise of last year, when Russia halted exports for more than six
months because of economic and political turmoil within that country.

January platinum fell $9.50 to $395 an ounce. December gold fell $1.30
to $313.20 an ounce; December silver rose 2.4 cents to $4.897 an ounce.

Panda, Spud Master: As many as 15-18 years ago Connecticut insurance companies were having their data entry work done over telephone lines from Jamaica where English speaking workers were available at low pay.

Crystal Ball -- Not one of my 'neater' creations, but I guess it's sufficient to make a point. I don't know if it's a good point or not, but the volume is drying up on a daily basis on the NYSE. Not a good sign technically. The Dow wasn't down much, but the SOX index took a good hit again. The biggest component? INTEL. Kodak announcing 14,000 layoffs? Before Christmas and Thanksgiving? Such a grinch! Bah Humbug!

What the world need now besides LOVE is a SINGLE ELECTRONIC GOLD-BACKED WORLD CURRENCY! Think about it! No more competitive beggar-thy-neighbor currency devaluations! No more need to raise tarrifs on a neighboring country's imported goods because of a recent currency devaluation! No more need for multiple central banks each with their own nationalistic, regionalistic, hegemonic, imperialistic monetary targets, inflation rates and interest rates! Could the new Euro be the precursor to such a global currency? Might not SE ASIA welcome such a stabilizing force in their regional trade mechanism? Might not Latin America welcome a currency that did not have to be artificially propped up every couple years, devalued or inflated away? Gott im Himmel! This might even be the end of the almighty greenback! What would we do if we couldn't inflate our way out of our massive trade deficits, budget deficits, social welfare payment underfundings, etc. etc. etc? Indeed, what would we do if we couldn't borrow any more period? What would we do if we had to pay for our imports with a real honest-to-God HARD CURRENCY backed by something more reassuring, honest and substantive than simply "the full faith and credit of the US Gov't?" No more envying other country's weak or strong currencies! No more lying to the public about the real economic problems we face! No more politicising of the Federal Reserve for the election or re-election of the president and/or vice president! CHEEEEESE! If I keep talking long enough I might even be persuaded to buy into this BULLSCHEISS!!! It IS bullscheiss isn't it?

Panda: Ask someone from Rochester if the fundamentals are sound.

Well, we saw a few day ago how powerful it was when Hong Kong had its 20 or so major businesses buy stocks ( big recovery day for them as you remember ) . Japan has played that game int the past also, and its about time that they pay the piper on that one.

Thursday November 6 7:17 PM EST

Bank of Yokohama denies report of share sell-off

TOKYO, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - Bank of Yokohama Ltd ( 8332.T ) on Friday denied a newspaper report that the will sell off all the shares it holds in other
companies in the next two to three years.

``The report is total speculation and there is no truth in it,'' a spokesman for the leading Japanese regional bank told Reuters.

POSSIBLE LOST DATA had a book value of 600 billion yen.

The paper said the bank would initially sell off all its shares in financial firms by the end of this financial year next March 31 and then start selling shares in
other companies to terminate all its cross share-holdings.

In the face of planned ``Big Bang'' financial deregulation, Japan's traditional cross-shareholding system -- in which companies hold each others' shares to
strengthen business ties -- has lost its attraction, analysts said.

The bank holds shares in such firms as Fuji Photo Film Co Ltd ( 4901.T ) , Kitazawa Sangyo Co Ltd ( 9930.T ) , Mitsubishi Pencil Co Ltd ( 7976.T ) ,
Kanagawa Chuo Kotsu Co Ltd ( 9081.T ) , Hino Motors Ltd ( 7205.T ) and Asahi Glass Co Ltd ( 5201.T ) , market sources said.

The dissolution of cross-shareholdings has become a key factor behind recent weakness in Tokyo stocks, especially those in the financial sector, analysts
said.

The Bank of Yokohama spokesman said that whenever the bank sells shares it holds as cross-shareholdings, it first seeks permission from the companies
involved about the sale of their shares.

``We cannot take unilateral action ( as reported ) if we want to cancel cross-shareholdings,'' the spokesman said.

The bank, based in Yokohama, near Tokyo, said it has no plan to hold a news conference on the issue.

- Tokyo Equities Desk ( 813 ) 3432-9404

Ted -- My last metal hold out! This could drive me to drink! Then again, on the bright side ( is there one in the metals? ) , maybe I'll get another chance to pick up some platinum coins on the 'cheap'... At least I'll get more than a 'statement'.................

LGB
I need not answer your last reply to me as many others here have answered it better than I could have.

The markets internals are currently going into a selling phase.
http://quote.yahoo.com/m0?u
US Market Digest.
Falling volumes on rising prices, followed by rising volumes on falling prices.
Classical t/a in a down trend.

As one can notice by the current actions of the world global markets.
We are now heading into the next wave of selling, accompanied by fear.
The size of this next wave will be a true indicator of what is coming.
Our OZ markets futures are currently under attack, having just touched an important e-wave high 2602.
SPI currently at 2565 and falling fast.
The response of Europe to todays Asian markets moves, will set a fine example of what to expect in the US tonight.
Monday has the potential to be devastating, followed by an even scarier Tuesday, etc.

Recommendation: Buy insurance, buy physical, sell equities to lock in profits and transfer out of overpriced stocks.

Globex down 900

Market leaders like dell and intc show the direction of this market.

Golbex -450

BRAZIL'S NERVOUS
NEIGHBORS ( int'l edition )

Its economic woes could spill over if
they're not solved fast

Before Hong Kong's stock market plummeted in late October, Brazilian officials
were insisting that the country's economy was sound. Sure, Brazil's
current-account and budget deficits were each approaching 5% of gross
domestic product. But President Fernando Henrique Cardoso was counting on
financing them via massive foreign direct investment and a privatization program
that was expected to raise $90 billion by 2000. And there was little chance that
speculators would mess with the real in the way they had pummeled Asian
currencies. Although it was considered overvalued, the real was protected by a
war chest of $62 billion in foreign-currency reserves.

Then reality struck. As an attack on the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the U.S.
greenback touched off a rout on bourses worldwide, the Sao Paulo exchange
dropped 22.3% in one week. Worse yet, a run on the real forced the central
bank to spend some $8 billion in a battle to prevent devaluation. To discourage
investors from selling the real, the bank on Oct. 30 doubled interest rates to 43%,
throwing an immediate chill into consumer spending. For now, the strategy
appears to be working. Yet economists stress that without true reform, the
economy, which had been expected to grow by nearly 4% this year and next,
faces the possibility of recession.

Such is the price of defending an economy in a world where hot-money investors
can call the shots and the best of preparations can be for naught. But the crisis
may give Cardoso, who is up for reelection next October, much-needed political
leverage to push a recalcitrant Congress into passing sweeping reforms of the
public-sector, tax, and pension systems. On Nov. 12, Brazil's Chamber of
Deputies will vote on reforms to make it easier to fire public-sector workers. The
bill would then have to be approved by the Senate. ''Brazil must become stronger
to face the storms that come from abroad,'' Cardoso told congressional leaders
on Nov. 4.

Nikkie down 420 points...

Donald: Feh! Mere data entry! The Third World could never do complex military software ... come to think of it, the First World can't either.

GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: Think of it - Fiat currency may ultimately have been responsible for more human misery, suffering & death than all wars combined. Bankers & Nazis & Phol Pot & Stalin & Ghengis Khan all one big happy camper family.
Gold doesn't kill, paper promise kills.

test

Massive currencies devaluations and stock market crashes! Absolute financial chaos reigns in South East Asia - This is spilling over into Japan, Australia, Europe and the US of A. What inevitably follows is A Financial Tsunami Looming in Land of *SETTING* Sun. Japan will indeed be forced to dump US T-Bonds to defend the home economy, and subsequently buy gold as it fights for survival- SEE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html

Donald -- I have one friend whom I often times discuss the economy with. His response usually comes down to the fact that everyone is living off of credit and leased vehicles. He and his wife are in better 'work' positions to make this determination than I. My retort to him goes along the lines of, "So what! As long as they can GET THE CREDIT...." My point is simply, as long as someone accepts your form of payment, even if it's only a promise ( credit ) , it is a legitiment transaction. Thus the economy can booooom! It's just that, the damn hang-over is gonna be a killer! Perhaps, similar to a bear market, we can have a credit 'bear market' with rising bankruptcies, but no 'credit crash'. Again, the magic of fiat money to the rescue. Alice in Wonderland, with all of those mirrors.

Without an absolute ( gold ) standard, it's hard to have a deflationary collapse. A more likely scenario would be a stagflation coupled with a flat stock market for years on end. No crash, but no gain, and persistent inflation ( the deflation prevention mechanism ) .

The Japanese stock market is wasting away... As I speak it is DOWN 419 points to 16115 --- it is inevitable that the Nippons dump US T-Bonds and buy gold:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html

Herr Vronsky--As you have just reminded me with your latest doom and gloom plug on Gold-Eagle, I don't have much more time to sell my paper and buy gold! Until the world gets its single electronic gold-backed global currency, it will continue to be the NEXT BEST THING and the ONLY REAL STORE OF VALUE THIS SIDE OF HEAVEN! Mein Gott reality is a harsh taskmaster, ain't it?

Spud-Luv ur dialogue. Great presentation/sense of humour along with
knowledged based. Keep it up. Will continuously view u from the sidelines. Almost sounds like a bar line!!!!

Comex warehouse gold stocks sharply unchanged at 594,853 oz.

Comex warehouse silver stocks FELL SHARPLY by 2,183,645 oz to 131,676,950 oz, the lowest level in over twelve years.

Sorry to be late folks, I was out adding to my company's gold reserves - soon we may have more than Comex!

LGB: I have for the past couple of months read your posts. These past few days I was learning from them.
I read yours of 13:22, nov. 6 and that was the final reading I will make of your posts. Tripe and folderol!!

cheese-luv ur conspiracy articles. Have some limited personal conspiracy
experience during previous lifetime ( occupation ) . Got stymied by higher
powers. Keep up the posts. Ur not a crazy!!!!

Wonder if there wasn't a little gold weighin' down the rear end of that autermobile in Arkansas where they discovered a check for $20,000 with Bill Clinton's name on it among a trunk full of checks, records and other interesting stuff with McDougall's and Jim Guy Tucker's names plastered all over it! Maybe there's an impeachment in our nation's future after all! Thank Gaia fer tornaders, er, mother earth goddess, ma'am!

Getting kind of RED in Asia.

Nikkei crunched another 100. Now down 500 -3% !!!!!!!!

Thank's for the feedback to earlier posts. As to 401K's and Boomer retiree's, I plan to be out of the market when that time comes, in low risk investments, which is what's recommended even by Wall St. types. The Japanese investors were truly doing bubble investing, not retirement investing. Look at their valuations and P/E's.

As to Keyne's, I freely admit to being no economist or expert on his writings. My understanding of him was that he advocated monetary expansion to support economic expansion, something that has been working quite well for the past few decades ( with the excpetion of the Nimord Carter years when we saw hyperinflation from going too far in that area, but especially in runaway Govt spending ) .

As to Tolerant and your reference to my facts being incirrect on what investments have shined since WW2, may I respectfully suggest you do some study. Remember that when it comes to Gold, American's were not allowed to own it when it was $35 an ounce, and didn't own it in any numbers until it stabilized after being allowed to float in a free market. The majority of Gold investors by far, purchased it from 1976 to 1989, and virtually all have taken a terrible beating. Meanwhile stock market investors have done astoundingly well be any measure.

401K investors, of which there are millions, generally make 80% or better returns up front for every dollar invested, due to tax savings and complany matching programs. That's BEFOE their capital gains which of course have been spectacular for the past 10 years.

All other's, apologize if I have been bried, gotta run to Biz trip.

Predictions still on target. Stock market on target for ending the week with a gain on the week ( though I expect a drop tomorrow ) , and Gold will end the week lower than it began as predicted. More Saturday. IMNHO

The New and Improved, LGB

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Donald
You are correct about the globex, I took the figure from quote.com where it showed the figure -900 as being down that much since yesterday. Checking cme I realized my mistake.

Worth a re-read:
Crash of 1997 http://www.pei-intl.com/HMEFRAME.HTM
------------------------------------------------------------------------
 October 31st, 1997
Princeton Economic Institute

Click Here for Charts http://www.pei-intl.com/CRASH972.HTM
------------------------------------------------------------------------

The sharp correction which has shaken the world stock markets is not over just yet. We see that a minor reaction rally is possible into Monday/Tuesday of next week ( Nov 3/4 ) . Nevertheless, some serious damage has been done. Major monthly sell signal have been accomplished on the DAX in Germany, Nikkei in Japan and CAC40 in France while resistance is now building at the 51380 level in the FT100 Futures, 13380 in Hang Seng and 96400 in S&P500 Futures. Overall, our computer is warning that the Crash of 1997 will start to effect Japan and Europe with the US suffering the least on a percentage basis.

The root cause of this global increase in volatility is far more serious than most care to entertain. The global nature of this sharp decline is similar to that of 1987 when capital became quite concerned about the decline in the dollar at that time. In the case of 1997, the concern about the value of currencies is once again setting off a vortex of volatility and serious investment capital becomes comes about the future. Hong Kong's decline is largely due to the fact that the currency has become much over-valued. Now that same concern is taking place with respect to South America.

At the heart of this turmoil lies the ultimate question of value - the Euro and the fate of Europe ( see Understanding the Euro ) . Asia is merely the first victim since their currencies have been linked to the dollar which has been driven higher by a flight of capital from Europe. One week prior to the Crash of '97 the German government 30-year bond auction was UNDERSCRIBED for the first time in modern history! This concern about Europe is being relayed to us by all our clients worldwide and the fact that Germany was unable to sell all its bonds for the first time in modern history is a reflection of that global concern.

With the convergence of Europe into EMU next year and politician's failure to understand that capital needs to know one very basic piece of information - the value of money itself, we can only expect volatility to rise in 1998. The convergence of the European currencies into European Monetary Union next year is an option without a strike price when it comes to the value question of the Euro. Will the Euro be a strong currency or a weak one? This will have a very major impact upon capital globally as we have been witnessing in Hong Kong and Brazil not to mention South East Asia.

Long-term investment capital is now being forced into acting like short-term speculators. This EMU event is not being blamed by the media at this time. It is not even understood by the politicans worldwide. Nevertheless, as we enter the new year, volatility will rise even further and at some point the world will comes to realize that the turmoil is radiating outwards from Europe itself. The strong advance in the dollar is being created by the fact that it is the only currency that offers some sense of secure value over the next few years. The budget deficit of the US has fallen below that of most countries and will most likely reach a surplus by the 2nd quarter of 1998 allowing Greenspan to being retiring debt for the first time since 1837.

The stock markets are getting caught up in this currency crossfire. Stock markets are overvalued due to their sharp advance between April-July and this sudden rise is unsustainable. All such market rallies must make a normal correction, which is typically 10-15% from the high and on occasion as much as 23%-33% before building a base of support.

A TEMPORARY LOW

The low established on Tuesday 28th of October should present ONLY a temporary low. There is a potential to rally into the week of November 3rd, however, our models are warning that a high next week could be followed by another disasterous decline thereafter moving into year-end.

US GOVERNMENT MAKING PANIC WORSE

The circuit breakers system imposed in 1987 was politics at its worst. When the '87 Crash came, Washington felt that it had to be seen as doing something to prevent such a collapse from happening again. They therefore installed circuit breakers without taking into consideration long-term asset inflation. 500 points was big back in 1987 as a percentage movement. Today, it is a few percent. Forcing the NY stock exchange to close was the worst possible effect for any free market. Washington has successfully transformed the biggest and most liquid market in the world into a commodity or third world market where price movement is often rigged for politicial purposes. The fact that the the NY stock exchange was forced to close early was news and journalists around the world told of the shocking event. TV camped out in front of the White House waiting for any comment. ABC news asked "Is there anything the President can do?" "Yes" replied their journalist while standing in front of the White House. "The President could close the stock exchange for 90 days." Despite following this statement up with there is no intent of doing so at this time places Clinton in the same classification as the crazy politicians in South East Asia calling for the ban on currency markets globally.

The circuit breakers are causing chaos and confusion. As with all things politicial, today's solution becomes tomorrow's problem.

This correction in the share markets is likely to result in major all-time highs for Europe, while the US, Australia and South East Asia will eventually make new highs once again between 1998-2003. For now, the near-term low will be next week. Look for a recovery of up to 50% of the decline into January and a renewed decline, albeit moderate, into June/July time period.

ULTIMATE IRONY

If enough US investors panic and take profits, they will then pay their taxes early next year. The US will hit a balance budget and most likely a surplus for the first time in a long time. This will shift the powers of international capital and we will see the dollar soar to new record highs next year taking the market back up along with it. The US will be the ONLY western nation who's debt could be retired.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
prepared by Martin A. Armstrong
October 31st, 1997

Also
http://207.86.17.200/Quotes/STKPGSO.HTM

Hon Kong opens down 3.3% Down 340!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For you conspiracy buffs, the guy who posted the TWA Flight 800 conspiracy all over the net and got Pierre Salinger and others on board has now admitted all his "evidence" was all made up to make a point and further his personal agenda. this is consistent with so many conspiracy stories that have been spread in the pst with no corroborating evidence to back them. Just food for thought Cheese & Zardoz et al.

Cmon! What are the odds that the Madison documents and the check to Clinton would be brought to light by a tornado??? Like it says on the coins, "In God we trust!".

"Gold as an instrument of monetary policy is dead, and will NEVER be revived ( thankfully ) " Posted November 6, 1997 13:22 by LGB. Remember that, folks.

Nick -- Haven't you heard? Value is irrelevant; debt is irrelevant. Personally, I think that all those who continue with this form of BS will be found to be 'irrelevant' in the end. But, in the end, we are all dead anyway, so perhaps even the end is 'irrelevant'!

LGB, Sir. You said yesterday that in 6 weeks Nikkei will be hovering
around 16000. Going on todays action does that mean it will go to 10000
before it gets back up to 16000, and what would the implications be for
gold if this was to happen.

Methinks Salinger's credability was lacking from day one ( or maybe two ) .
Same does not blow a hole thru all world conspiracies. I realize u r
anti conspiracies. With all respect-perhaps this site is a world conspiracy directed towards LGB et al or vice versa!!!!

Globex down-550

MARKETS HAVE ALL CRASHED
http://home1.pacific.net.sg/~viclim/inv00004.htm

Time to take your mind off the market. Read these and relax.
http://home1.pacific.net.sg/~viclim/inv0000e.htm

Sri Lankan stocks UP 0.44%

Is there any logical explanation for what has happened to Bema? 2 5/8?

Yellow Jacket, EB, and Steady, thanks for your comments.

Yellow Jacket - I don't share your confidence. Todays volume on Durban was 732,400 shares and the price dropped 1/32. I must admit that I got into DD via the merger, so am not an expert on it. If Steady is correct and there are only 2M shares in private hands, then 100% of this stock changed hands in the last 4 days. I doubt the sellers were private investors. Not at these levels. Not without causing the price to go up much more than it has. No, it must be the smart old guard ( holding all the rest of the stock ) that are selling into the interest generated by Blanchard's recommendation. What do they know that we don't, hmmmmm????

EB - This specific phenomena seems to be localized to DD. However, gold stox seem to be weak across the board. I agree with you. I don't like the smell of this at all. Despite the fact that DROOY is near the lows, I think it is time to shorten the sails and rig for bad weather.

If any man among you ( or woman ) wants to talk me out of it, now is the time to speak your piece.

RJ - Are you lurking? What news, rumors, etc.?

When's the Nikkei open for business? Do tell acording to EST please...

The same thing that happened to ABX & NEM, and they are /were in the money producers.

D.A. - Stopped out of my Spoos at 947.5 with a 5 point loss, reshorted at 950. If the spoos trade under 935 Dec tomorrow morning, they could really tank.

See http://personal.fidelity.com/82DEV/the_hub/html/N225.html
( 8PM - 2AM EST )

I knew Brazil was ready to crash once I heard that Merrill Lynch had rated it the best global market for the next three months! Don't just love it when you're the first one to know!

I understood that the Nikkei closed for lunch for one hour. Since it hasn't moved in 45 min., perhaps it will open in 15.

Watch how the gold behaves in the face of silvers rise. Gold 'should' follow in a fairly quick manner. If not, then silver should also tank. Dec silver should not fall below the 4.80 area ( at this time ) . Dec gold should also not fall below the 312 area. Either case happening should drive them both lower I believe. Neither case happening allows further 'possibilities'.

S+P futures down 7.10~~~~~~~~~~~~~

And when investors realize tomorrow sometime aroung 15:00 NY that the next trading day is Monday, a short position could make a killing.

Globex down -710 - low of the day -800 so far.
Following Asia down.

Hang Seng Index ( Hong Kong ) down 412.31 at 10,000.00
See http://imsp003.netvigator.com/fina/inde/hsidata.cgi for real-time quotes updated every minute automagically.

( :o )

Well I got to tell you that is the best news I have heard in days! I have been really concerned about the defationary impact on all of the metals. 4.95 will it hold? Go to 5 please!!!!

Plse make reference to Nando Times re latest on Sadaam's ( aka Nebachandenzar ) conspiracy for World Control!!!!

Yellow ain't doin' much, but the whites are up solidly tonight

Hmmmm, looks like Asia is a write-off tonight, this thing ain't over yet.
Is 33 Billion enough to bail out Indonesia?
Its time for the CB's to hammer Gold again to support paper market,
"same old story, same old song and dance, my friend" .... for a little while longer.......

FEATURE--Layoffs, a paradox of the new US paradigm
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/cci_ek_fi_1.html

MASSIVE LAYOFFS
Coincidence or not, the last 30 days have been marked by several U.S. corporations, located in the most diverse industries, announcing major plans to cut back personnel.

INVESTING OR SAVING?
People don't talk about ``saving'' anymore. The buzzword of the late '90s is ``investing.''

HIGHER WAGES OR HIGHER RETURNS?
``You're shifting into a different type of employment in several major industries,'' the source added. ``And this is not going to end. It could be just the beginning, actually.''

Hang Seng Index ( Hong Kong ) broke below 10,000. Down 458.05 at 9,954.51
See http://imsp003.netvigator.com/fina/inde/hsidata.cgi for real-time quotes updated every minute automagically.

Wait a sec on the Goddard recantation. Why would he issue such a statement unless either the squeeze was put on him or new evidence emerged? I don't know of new evidence ( unless it was in that car in Arkansas ) , but there is an important TWA800 hearing coming up in December. I don't think that Goddard needed to clear his conscience. In addition, he recanted blaming the US Navy. There are still the countless eyewitnesses, many very credible, that saw ordnance of some sort approach that plane. Maybe the recent mysterious death of the up-till-then healthy guy in Ok ( ? ) who had a bunch of tapes re: Ron Brown and was negotiating their release to the FBI caused Goddard to change his priorities. I may have messed up the details of the latest death, but I heard it on the Jim Quinn show and Limbaugh the same day, but have heard nothing else. Anyone know the details?

ECO moved up a little today and silver is up tonight - figures. ECO has a lot of silver.

Hey, if you're really lookin' for a Jr. gold mining stock that's producing gold at $225 oz and owns 10.3% of one of the largest gold mines in the world, LIHIR ( LIHRY, LHG ) , then buy VENGOLD ( VENGF, VEN.T ) . While everything else is going to hell in a hand basket, VENGOLD went up 1/16 today to 1 5/16. Lihir is gonna' mine 660,000 oz. of gold next year and over 1.2 million ozs. a year for the next 40 years! And, it was recently announced has prospects on the island for millions of ozs. more which they are just now beginning to prove up! This, meine Freunde is what you call A NO-BRAINER. For each share of VENGOLD outstanding ( currently 94.4 million trading at $1.31 US ) there is 1 share of Lihir ( currently 92.7 million trading at $2.29 A ) . Add in all their exploration properties next to proven and producing gold mines in Indonesia and Venezuela and you've got a winner you can put in the safety deposit box until you retire! Management is doing an outstanding job of creating shareholder value and IMHO will continue to do so into the future. This stock has the potential to become another major producer if it isn't taken over first! Feel free to check it out for yourself at www.vengold.com! And yes, despite the fact I hate paper, I own 25,000 shares of this stuff!

Asia may be down but I'm SOARING into the cosmos----any other POT lovers out there in Kitcoland?? Beats gold any day of the week!!

From:
http://www.elliottwave.com/free_ewtstu_thanks.htm
This site is currently offering a one week free trial.

5:00 EST, Wednesday, November 5, 1997
Hi. This is Bob Prechter with the Short Term Update. Steve Hochberg is speaking at Jim Blanchard's New Orleans Investment Conference, so I'm filling in today. Steve will be back on Friday.

[Dow Industrials, C-7693, H-7766, L-7665, +3.50] Our thesis remains that on the big picture, stocks are in a bear market. Near term, the rally of the past six days has been a bounce that should be only a partial retracement of the decline from October.

As of today, we think that rebound is over or nearly so. For one thing, it has taken an a-b-c shape, which is typical of a counter-trend move. It has also reached a good price level. As we said on Monday, rallies following the initial drops in the crash years of 1929 and 1987 retraced approximately 60% of the first decline from the high. The Dow reached an equivalent level today just after 12:00 noon. The resistance we cited was Dow 7756; today's high was 7765. Time is also about right. In 1929, the rally lasted six trading days. Today is six trading days from the low. So if our long term conclusion is correct, then in terms of both price and time, the bounce off the first low may well have ended today.

What would be the normal maximum under this scenario? In 1987, the rally lasted two weeks, which in today's context would be this coming Tuesday. A 61.8% retracement of the entire decline from August is about 7800. So the rally could stretch into early next week and go half a percent higher.

Much beyond 7800 would jeopardize our conclusion, but for now, it looks right on track. Yes, we have thoughts about "what if" the decline from August/October is only a correction in a bull market, but we see those odds as so slim that there is no point in commenting unless the market moves beyond this upside benchmark.

Technical indicators support the case that the rally is ending. Daily volume has receded every single day since the bottom except today, which is a hair higher than yesterday. The two-day rate of change is slowing. Advance-decline figures have narrowed in the past two days as well. After a strong 3.65 on Monday, the past two days were 1.11 and 1.40. Put/call ratios show that after the aggressive bearishness of late October, traders are once again neutral-to-bullish on the market's trend. There are never guarantees in the market, but this is a good set of numbers for the downturn we are expecting. Remember, when the market next turns down, it will be a third wave, and those are the most dramatic of all.

[December S&P 500, C-947.00, H-955.00, L-941.50, +5.00] The S&P rose right to our target level of 950-960, peaking exactly in the middle at 955. An S&P above 964 would jeopardize our bear market scenario, but for now, this index appears right on track.

[NASDAQ Composite, C-1637, H-1644, L-1634, +6.20] The NASDAQ held below 1650 today, so it has stayed in line with our expectations. Along with the blue-chip indexes, it should turn down very soon. A move above 1670 would challenge our current outlook.

[December Bonds, C-117-12, H-117-23, L-117-05, +02] Bond prices are still forming a top. If stocks turn down sharply as we expect, there could be a final one- or two-day rally in bonds as a presumed "flight to quality." However, we think that very soon, bonds will not provide a safe haven, as their wave pattern is likely to resolve into a price decline ( in other words, a rise in yield ) . As we said Monday, a drop below 116-20 would probably be enough to confirm a new downtrend. Until then, allow for one more panic spike to just above the 118-18 high.

[XAU, C-85.77, H-87.66, L-85.52, -1.83] The biggest problem with the XAU is that it is a stock index that is still overvalued on a long-term basis, and if the general market sells off, then the XAU is likely to go with it. The XAU is fast approaching the support area of 82-84 we cited on Monday. Support below that is 75-77. The hourly chart shows five waves down from Monday's high, so expect a one- or two-day bounce to around 87 before it turns down again.

[December Gold, C-314.50, H-316.10, L-314.00, -.30] While the rally pattern from October 27 is not clear, the pattern from the October 31 low is a very clear five waves on the hourly chart. Given those five waves up, it appears sensible to adopt a near term bullish posture unless $311 is taken out. 311 is only 3 1/2 dollars from today's close, so it appears a low-risk posture. Below that level will call into play a target area of $297-306.

[December Silver, C-4.873, H-4.885, L-4.830, +.025] Silver appears to be gearing up for a breakout above resistance at 4.90. There have been three moves up to just under that level, with a series of smaller declines preceding them. Triple tops are rare and are usually a setup for higher prices. Silver has been strong relative to gold, a trend that we expect will continue. Although not expected, a drop below $4.71 will return the picture back to neutral-bearish.

It was fun talking to you; maybe we will do it again one of these days. On a personal note, I can tell you that Steve Hochberg puts an enormous amount of work and thought into each Update. We hope you are enjoying his input every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. If you ever have a suggestion, let us know; we are all ears.

Next Update: Friday, November 7, 1997, with Steve Hochberg.
Robert Prechter, editor

Hong Kong Hang Seng ^HS I9:57 PM 9934.01 -478.55 -4.60%
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 9:03 PM 16037.26 -496.61 -3.00%

Hong Kong Hang Seng ^HS I9:57 PM 9934.01 -478.55 -4.60%
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 9:03 PM 16037.26 -496.61 -3.00%

When Old cars, used clothing, Paintings can fetch Millions, The civilizations most precious commodity going down the tubes, while currencies are in turmoil makes it all a mystery.

The Swiss news of 1400 Tons was timed a week before the Dow sunk 555 and the World's largest Market CLOSED TWICE.

London Raising rates is another surprise today, Do the Central Banker's know more than what they are officially stating or am I completely off the wall.

At near the end of this millenium, The Year 2000 computer crises will pulverize commerce, while EU inspite of warnings, will float euro at the same time which will require massive overhaul to all forms of computerized systems. IRS and other Fed systems may not become compliant in time.

Yet only the Dow is the guiding light for all humanity, Does it make sense..................

And Gold says - "Well,  Rats. I don't like Fridays"...

away...to w/w
oomtown Rats


gold was at 311.80 today Eldo...does that mean that it will get Sh!t-Canned maana?!?

S&P 500 DEC97 934.00 -820 ( Globex )

If Clinton loses Fast Track tomorrow, US equity market will get hammered. Big business wants all USA jobs shipped to South America where they pay 10 cents on the dollar for labour.
MAJOR expense cuts === higher profit === higher share price === bigger
bonus/options for the execs. Meanwhile they F ( ) ck the little worker.

Thanks for the tips guys... now what was the HSI's low the other day of the big drop and do you suppose it could mark a psycological level of resistence, something that once broken could spell even more downward numbers.

From the AFR Aug 11th 1997

Cannabis price follows
when gold goes to pot

By Stephen Wyatt

Marijuana is more a commodity than many in government would like to admit. In the US, marijuana is the largest cash crop, bigger than corn, wheat and soybeans, and its price in both the US and Australia behaves uncannily like other commodity prices, especially gold.

Just as gold's dramatic price fall over the past 18 months has partly reflected the demise of inflation, so too has the fall in marijuana prices. They fell last year for the first time since 1980, according to Marion, a Sydney-based aficionado -- who, unlike President Bill Clinton, is known to inhale.

"Last year, marijuana prices fell for the first time since 1980. It's down from $450/ounce to $350/oz for quality stuff," she said.

Marion's observations are supported by Paul Dillon of the Sydney-based National Drug and Research Centre.

But while gold prices are below many producers' marginal costs of production today, not so marijuana. It is still vastly more attractive to produce than other commodities. That is, if you are prepared to risk a stint in the cooler.

Most of the thanks can go to government policy. While agricultural price supports are disappearing in the US for all crops, the price support for marijuana is firmly in place. The price and profitability of marijuana growing testifies to this.

Russel, an economist living in the Byron Bay area, commented last week that "if marijuana was legalised, the price would be closer to a case of beer than $200/oz".

In the US, "the Domestic Cannabis Eradication program is a price support program ( not unlike the US conservation reserve program ) . The value of marijuana comes from its relative THC [tetrahydrocannabinol] content, within the price supported by the DEA [Drug Enforcement Administration of the US Government] eradication," said Allen St Pierre, executive director of The NORML ( National Organisation for the Reform of Marijuana Laws ) Foundation.

Today the value of the US marijuana crop is estimated by the Washington-based NORML Foundation to exceed $US40 billion ( $54 billion ) . This is by far the largest US cash crop. It compares with the US 1996 corn crop of $US24.9 billion, soybean crop of $US16.3 billion, wheat crop of $US9.8 billion and cotton crop of $US6.5 billion.

In Australia there are no released official estimates of the size of the marijuana crop. However, a report by the advisory committee on illicit drugs to the Criminal Justice Commission in Queensland in July 1993 estimated the Australian cannabis market to be $1.905 billion, and the 1989 Queensland crop to be around $633 million. This puts marijuana as Queensland's second largest crop after sugar cane.

While eradication boosts the marijuana price and consequently the value of the ( remaining ) crop, what really makes the value of the marijuana crop so high is that it is illegal. Risk and reward go hand in hand in the marijuana market as they do in any other. The higher the risk, the higher the reward. So marijuana is priced at a level that provides supernormal profits. Today marijuana trades in the US at about an average price of $US200/oz according to NORML. But this has not always been the case. And in many ways, the history of marijuana prices mirrors that of general commodity prices.

In the US -- the largest consumer of marijuana in the world -- the price of marijuana was relatively stable throughout the 1970s. It generally traded around $US40/oz for a commercial grade leaf, defined as cannabis with 3.5 per cent THC content. At that time, commodity prices were also relatively stable.

Back then, inflation was just beginning to raise its ugly head and the gold standard in the US had just been dropped -- gold was then fixed by the US Federal Reserve at $US35/oz - about the same price as an ounce of marijuana.

But marijuana prices exploded in 1980-81. And, not surprisingly, so did commodity prices. The OPEC- induced oil price shock in 1979 was part of the trigger, but so was the general escalation in inflation. Marijuana rocketed from $US40/oz to $US100/oz in 1980.

At the same time, the gold price soared from $US35/oz in the early '70s to $US200/oz in the late 1970s to a wild $US850/oz in late 1980, oil prices quadrupled from $US10/barrel in 1975 to $US40/barrel in 1980 and grains prices generally doubled from 1977 to 1980. General commodity prices, as measured by the CRB Index -- an index of prices of US commodity futures markets -- rallied from 185 in 1977 to 335 in 1980, after trading a 175-235 range over the 1970s. And marijuana was rising along with these commodities.

Explanations of why marijuana prices changed, vary depending upon the individual's political position on the drug. Inflation certainly played a key role, but US drug enforcement agencies prefer to point to the 1975-76 Federal crackdown on marijuana.

The program has not stopped since, just as similar programs in Australia have been maintained. Border patrols and domestic surveillance were increased. It suddenly reduced the supply but also increased the cost of importing marijuana. "The 1970s on Cape Cod were called the bale years," said Allen St Pierre, the executive director of NORML.

"Back then marijuana was imported in 70 lb ( 30 kg ) bales. But as surveillance increased, boats often threw the bales over board and they'd wash up on shore."

But not in the 1980s. Supply was falling and the cost of supplying the commodity was rising. Prices were on the way up and fast. Suddenly the business of growing marijuana in the US became extraordinarily profitable. Marijuana became the boom crop of the 1980s.

In Australia, prices followed a similar pattern to those in the US. According to Marion, regular leaf cost about $50/oz in the 1970s. "It then gradually rose with a slight seasonal characteristic. It was always more expensive late in the year in Australia," she said.

By 1990, the Australian marijuana price had risen to $250/oz. Around that time a premium structure developed in the market. A price premium was paid for high THC marijuana ( heads ) relative to the low-grade leaf. The lower quality leaf traded up to $350/oz with heads or hydroponic cannabis trading up to $450/oz in 1996. This is now trading at $350/oz.

How will golds price fluctuations effect next week's pot costs?

Globex now down -880

Golden Cheesehead
Lihir is truly a beautiful story.
Perhaps vengold is pushing down the price of gold so they can take over LHG.

Pass it on dude..........................

Globex real-time 932.50 -970 at 22:11:00
See http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes
and with the Chart button, set "All Sessions" to show globex trading. The sybmol is SP7Z for SPOOS, and GC7Z for gold, JY7Z for the almighty Yen, etc. SP7Z is in fast market, very choppy trading.

EB -- You also noticed it didn't stay there long, didn't you? You also notice it is at the cusp of the triangle, right? Maybe it'll get hammered, maybe it won't. Maybe it'll end up 5 bucks, maybe down that much. Maybe neither. Does make a nice place to place a bet though. But as I said earlier, the charts do not look at all good for it. One thing for sure, it will be making a move shortly.

To all:
Just handed newest issue of New American Magazine, 52 pages to Impeach Clinton. They have web site at http://www.impeachment.org
looks like big campaign.

Get a load of this, Just in from Money magazine about WHY the currencies crumble

Thursday, November 6, 1997 9:55 p.m. EST


Why good currencies go bad


The recent worldwide market woes were sparked by the
collapse of currencies halfway around the globe. In a
special two-part series, Money Daily's Michael Brush
examines this phenomenon and its impact on American
investors. Part one details some of the factors that
can cause currencies to crumble. Part two, scheduled
for release on Friday night, examines which currencies
might crumble next.


By Michael Brush


For historians, 1997 will go down as the year that
currencies crumbled. Beginning in early July, currency
devaluations cut a swathe through Southeast Asia,
eventually roiling companies and stock markets all
around the world. Now the currency weakness threatens
to spread to Latin America and other regions.


What happened? That is, why do currencies fall apart
-- and, understanding that, is it possible to predict
which currencies will be next to crumble?


To answer those questions, it's necessary to go back
to Econ 101 and cover some fundamentals. For starters,
currencies almost never change value dramatically
overnight unless they have been "fixed" or "pegged" to
some other currency theretofore. If they had not been
fixed, they would have made minor day-by-day
adjustments, instead of crashing and losing their
value all at once.


Typically governments -- like Hong Kong's -- that
choose to link their currencies do so because they
believe it will help stimulate international trade by
bringing stability to currency exchange rates.
Generally, the currency is linked to the U.S. dollar
or to a basket of currencies heavily weighted with
U.S. dollars. Pegging to the U.S. dollar is intended
to bolster the confidence of foreign investors that
the local economy will be run in a stable manner.


Here is where things start to go wrong. By fixing its
currency to the dollar, a country implies that it
intends to have more or less the same monetary policy
and inflation rate as those of the U.S. However, this
is not always easy to achieve. Economies, not to
mention the political and spending needs of
governments, vary from country to country. So
differences in inflation, and trade and capital flows
are inevitable,
causing economic pressures to build up on a pegged
exchange rate.


Here are the main kinds of pressures that get fixed
currencies into trouble:


* Inflation imbalances If a country has more
inflation than the U.S., say because it borrows and
spends more, then as time goes by its currency should
be worth less. Each year, consumers can buy fewer
goods with that currency relative to the U.S. dollar,
and yet they can still buy the same number of U.S.
dollars because of the pegged exchange rate. Something
has to give.


Robert Brusca, an economist with Nikko Securities,
estimates that Pacific rim countries were running
annual inflation levels two or three percentage points
above that in the U.S. for about eight years. In other
words, their currencies became 25% less valuable in
that time, even though their official value remained
fixed to the dollar. That kind of situation can't last
forever.


* Big current account deficits. A country's "current
account" is the difference between exports and
imports. And a large current account deficit means a
country is buying lots more than it is selling. This
puts downward pressure on the value of a nation's
currency, because -- thanks to all that spending --
more of its money flows overseas than is needed by
foreigners to buy that country's exported goods. In
general, current account deficits start to be
dangerous once they exceed 5% of gross domestic
product. True, a nation can safely absorb a big
deficit if there are large flows of foreign investment
into the country through its "capital account." That
has been the case for many Southeast Asian nations in
recent years, thanks to investors' willingness to pour
money into the Asian tiger economies. Whether it will
still be the case going forward is another story.


Meanwhile, the export growth of many Southeast Asian
nations has slowed -- in part because China has come
on the scene as a major competitor. That has made
current account deficits worse in many countries in
the region, says Brian Gendreau, a market analyst and
economist with Smith Barney. Conversely, currencies
and stock markets have suffered the least in countries
like Singapore and Taiwan, where current account
positions are the strongest.


* Weak foreign currency reserves. When excess
inflation or a current account deficit puts pressure
on a currency, governments often use foreign reserves
to buy back their own currency in the open market,
taking some of the pressure off. They reason that they
can defend the currency against short-term weakness or
a temporary attack by currency speculators. For
example, economists that reckon Brazil spent $7
billion last week to defend its currency, the real.
Once reserves are low, however, the defense is gone,
and doubts about the currency can push it over the
edge.


* Capital flight. Often governments will raise
interest rates to protect their currencies. This makes
domestic investments more attractive, drawing in
foreign currency. It also tends to slow domestic
growth. That reduces the demand for foreign goods, and
thus can help nudge a current account deficit back
into line.


But the strategy can also backfire. Foreign investors
who put money in the country by buying shares ( as
opposed to building a plant they can't easily get out
of ) will often flee once interest rates start going
up. Reason: higher interest rates threaten to devalue
the shares they own by reducing corporate earnings.
And if higher rates threaten to put domestic banks in
jeopardy -- because companies find it more difficult
to pay back debts in a slowing economy -- then foreign
capital gets even more itchy to leave. Banking crises,
after all, compound domestic economic problems.


These kinds of worries about banks in many Southeast
Asian countries contributed to the flight of capital
away from those countries. And that explains why a
currency crisis spills over into the stock market. If
governments raise interest rates to protect the
currency, then investors will shift money out of
stocks.


Tomorrow: which currency will crumble next?




Another doldrums day in the markets

Blood beginning to flow... http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u Don't forget to press "reload"

EB -- It will either follow silver up or silver will crash behind it. They will not long part short term moves in direction.

crystalball:
Could you please tell me where to find the "after hours globex index"?
thanks for your help.

Too many of you are watching the Hang Seng. It recovered above 10,000 and is only down 393.70 now. Don't you know, the "watched pot never boils"? We want it to boil, don't we? Go to bed already.

It's time!! http://router.minot.com/~bohl/ you know the drill...select daily Gold Dec.

Look at the small breakout...hmmmmmmmmm...do you see the pennant?? Do you see what happened?? oh...my...

the reason I like these charts is that for some reason patterns show up VERY well here. I have several charts ( software, hard copy weekly, and internet ) and I use all of them to look for patterns...it IS a GOOD way to make a few $$$$...Cha-Ching!

Eldo - What do you see??

MikeS - You?? I miss your morning 'stuff'. Have you been busy?? I welcome you back with WAY open arms. You are a T.A. guru and I am DIGGING YOU!!

D.A. - I know what you see

SpudsterMaster - Well..........??

Ted - Come down with us and check the charts ;- )

George, Mooney, Nicks, Anyone???

Panda - Perhaps your Omega Charts can shed light...throw us a bone...

IRVINE-BOY???????????!????!?!!??????????? Get your ass in this fray!! I have a feeling we may hear from you tomorrow ( big winky )

away...to search for patterns


Big T-Bond rally going on now! Why? ( 6.13% )

OZ SPI fallen to 2526 from high of day 2602.

Looks like a good time to take a pot strangle?

WALT: http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

As Mr. Wet says, "My pleasure!"

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

Morgan Stanley worker faces insider trade charges
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/mwd_trv_y_1.html

Whisper that Elaine Gazarelli's fund is on the way out?
Interview on cnbc, I think they said that her fund is shutting down.

Charts-smarts-farts....Let's talk about somethin important like tomorrow night @ 10:30 ( EST ) dude!!!!

Been slowly getting out of the market now for the past 6 months, but
what I received in the mail today really confirmed my fears of too much
stock market madness. Received a statement today, from the discount
brokerage firm that I deal with. Along with the regular b.s. there was a
letter explaining that they were having a lot of trouble with people calling
up wanting to buy stocks, not knowing what the bid offer on a stock
meant. Market mania, every man and his dog are now into the market.
bad times ahead.

The Japanese show under way ; now under 16000 !!!!

"Flight to quality" wink, wink ;- )

 - Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

November 6, 1997
Baby boomers wqrned of nest-egg threat

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Baby boomers who had hoped to retire early and live off stock-feathered nest eggs will have to work longer than they thought, one of Wall Street's veteran contrarians said.

"We will see a massive decline in stocks or the market will go sideways for the next 10 to 15 years," Charles Allmon, editor and publisher of Growth Stock Outlook newsletters said.

"It will give a shock to the baby boomers. They will have to work much longer than they thought," Allmon told Reuters. Owners of 401K pension funds who are holding large amounts of funds in money markets could do well to look more at bonds for a change, he said.

Stocks are too expensive, with little hope that earnings can keep up their torrid pace of gains as Asian competition increases.

He claims to have managed the only fund that rose on Black Monday in October 1987. "I think we are heading for global deflation," Allmon said. "We are going to see the Dow and the S&P500 decline by 40 or 60 percent by the year 2000, give or take a year." "The stock market always returns to historic norms, and they are a long way down. The ( Dow's ) top is in," he said.

Price to earnings ratios of U.S. stocks have rocketed to 20 to 22, but will shrink to a more sustainable level of 13 to 14 over the next three to four years, Allmon said.

Allmon sold his fund three years ago, and now manages $150 million for individual clients with about 75 percent of this in cash.

"I think one growth area that is open ended is computer software, but I think the multiples are going to sink by 75 percent," Allmon said.

All: Looks like the El Nino --- currency crisis link is not so crazy after all! Brazil is on its way down. Any other South American countries hard hit by El Nino?
The analogy goes like this -- El Nino gives your country the "cold", and increases the risk for "pneumonia" ( ie, such as a currency crisis ) . I repeat my warning -- we should all be alert for the chance that our own countries could get a "cold" too! Any El Nino experts that can explain coherently what we should expect next year when the El Nino peaks? I for one find the SE Asia, and South American predictions much easier to interpret than those for North America. Don't have a clue about Africa, Europe, or Australia.
Comments from the grains commodity traders?

Boy it is hitting the fan tonite. Only solution is to SELL BONDS AND BUY GOLD!

Tally Ho

TED G'day, For Sale signs up tomorrow.

FWIW -- After looking at the charts for the Dow in 1987 and then 1997, the similarities are eerie. The market peaks for those periods coincided within a few weeks of one another. The attempts at taking out the old highs were within a few weeks of each other. The MAJOR difference was the crash in 1987 versus the 554 point, one day drop in 1997. It starts to get more interesting when you look at the chart in different time frames. The monthly chart of the Dow is headed down. The weekly implies a recovery of sorts. The daily volume argues for at least a retest of the recent lows. I'm sorry folks, but anytime we get a 1200+ point delta in the Dow weekly chart, I'd become a 'minute' trader, not a long term investor. It's kind of like that piece of food stuck waaay in back of the fridge. It's not 'really' bad, but you wouldn't want to eat it either. Buyers remorse two coming? Or is that buyers remorse redux? What the hell! Let's have a buying panic and trash gold to buy stocks!

Oracle- Please, what is the address for current bond ### ???. Thanks a lot.

G'day mate!!! S+P futures down 9.50 but gold ( dec ) has turned south ( -.20 ) .....Where's that ole flight ta quality???...Am lookin forward to Saturday as the wife is whippin up some of her famous brownies ( loaded with big choc-o-late chips.....What's new with you??

Nick ( @Aussie ) : I think this will be the second "ping". The time for the third can now be anticipated. Watching the red -- especially Brazil, Japan, Hong Kong -- I wish I was more short -- but suspect that this red wave will wash to my ( USA ) shores before I can do anything except watch -- hope everyone is mostly on the sidelines in "paper", or short. I wonder how big the DOW dip will be tomorrow and monday!

http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/Bonds/ thry this Steady

C.B. - I thought the Italians bombed Pearl Harbor.....c'mon with you're flight to quality. That bird has as much chance to fly as an Ostrich...oh my...

Ted - BRING IT ON!!!!!!! Jack Nicholson just called and told me to go double or nothin'... You want some of that?? I'm talkin BIG BUCKS here... US$ NOT Can. Maple Syrups...

away...to call Nick for some Van Excellence...........
asketball is FANtastic...

EB
Turn the gold chart upside down - invert it.
If I didn't know any fundamental data about gold and were to view the chart upside down.
I would have to guess that it is reaching a topping formation.
Exhaustion of trend, gaps and volumes tend to add to this conclusion.
Of course there still could be a short term continuation of the current trend.

A lot of players who went long last week, will be viewing current market movements with great ammounts of nervousness.

How much is Japan down tonight ( percentage ) ?

Gold down 20

away...to grub


Aurator -- Ready for the second ping in the markets? No - I am not mad at you -- but I am getting annoying nips at my legs from the Kitco private eyes.
By tomorrow and monday, all will be forgotten in the flood of red ink, I think. I wonder what the plunge protection team will do this time. Think Geraldo will be on again "live" to alert everyone to the Hong Kong or Japan situation? I wonder if he realizes that he may have been the trigger for our previous -500+ point ping in the DOW!
Are you on high ground? -- I wouldn't go to that beach front pub for the next few days or so.

Brothers, We all Sink or Swim, The Day is near

May the Sun and Gold shine next few days in NY enabling people to see more clearly

My 22:50 post is in error. The dow weekly ( for the 'crash' week ) had a delta of about 800 points not 1200. The five days of the decline and rebound had a change of about 1100 points from the highs to the lows. Details, details, isn't this where the devil dwells? :- (

Anyone know why is there a T-Bond rally going on now! ( 6.13% )

Japan
silver: Nikkei 225
^N225
11:04PM
16050.45
-483.42
-2.92%

Oracle -- If there is aT-Bond rally going on now, there is one thing that would derail it for sure. That one thing would be tomorrows job report. If it is stronger than expected, reality might creep back in to the market place. Then, ( Holy bonds Batman! ) Bonds and Stocks just might get back in synch again, to the downside that is. If the report is weaker than expected, or as expected, then the flight to quality thingee comes up again. Either way, general equities markets will be very, 'volatile'? :- ) )

TED Just one of the advantages of contrary crass antipodeanness, my weekend has just begun. Will be v busy selling a leettle slice of paradise to move into city built on 42 volanoes ( Auckland ) need ma head read, but that's what it's like bein' contrary..

JTF & Colleen, a little too much salt in the aurator, apologise if I caused offence, or even a wall of worry. Have you seen any v. recent news re levels in Panama canal? A week or so ago there was concern that El Nio was actually causing a drop in the levels and might endanger shipping.

Nick@Aussie, pining for a view of Mt Manganui beach? try http://www.webcam.co.nz/ the webcam is on top of the Mount..!


Auric and are you Palindromically deft too?

Golden Cheesehead: You mentioned an alternative gold backed money system that had a reach in scope to be global. I say look at e-gold. If I am not mistaken they have holding sites in three or four continents. The system is backed one hundred percent by metal.

It is only a matter of time before several thousand and then several hundred thousand start to utilize e-gold. In my opinion it has the ability to be the money of the future. It is just sitting there and many are already taking advantage of it.

Several have already written about gold backed digital receipts, well, it exists.

Now, once again, I am a customer and a satisfied one at that. Each and every chance I get I wire money in. I have made two redemptions on my metal with the flick of a keystroke, it is sent promptly. Mr. E-gold is a heck of a nice guy.

Send him an email off the e-gold site. Ask him questions till you get callous's on the end of your finger tips and he will answer them.

Nick ( @Aussie ) : I think you solved my problem with learning how to trade short -- I can't do it reliably yet for some reason! All I need to do is invert the graph! So obvious, since I already know the long bit!!!

Last I checked the nics were up by 34 over the suns---just gettin ready for tomorrow night's BUTT-kickin ( TNT ) ....Shaq suks

R Hitt:
One scenario completes a 5 wave pattern which lines up well with the calender pattern of 1929.
This calls for the final low of this parallel to occur Thursday November 13th. There is anecdotal evidence that this is the most likely scenario to play out. The 13th falls right about the time that a normal option shake-out occurs every month. Other places in the world have already experienced a striking parallel to the US experience in 29. Lastly the underlying fundamentals seem to suggest that the US is still a safe haven for the overseas cash that sloshes around looking for a home. A low of 6750 is about what to expect from this scenario on or about November 13th.

The other scenario calls the retracement that was probably completed yesterday the relief rally before the main crash wave. The timing on this does not line up with any other crash wave in history BUT the fact remains that NOW is the time that a position should be taken. If this parallel to 1929 is playing out here in the US the market decline ahead will drop the Dow down to BELOW 5000 in a matter of weeks. I shudder to think what could cause such a drop over such a short period but have to assume that world events would have to conspire to bring this about with some very ugly events.

JTF
Indicators and oscillators show that the next move has just begun.
The 'ping' has just returned from the opposite side of the zero line and building up momentum to see if it can produce a larger 'ping' than before.

I feel that gold will not begin to move till the dow has fallen at least 50% of its future move.
The Feds cannot under any circumstances let a gold rush occur till their bonds are safe and equities are down.

Interesting article - http://www.afr.com.au/content/971107/world/world2.html

One final comment for the night. I hate to be the bearer of negative thoughts, but...., gold will not enter in to the collective consciousness of Wall Street Joe until he is smacked in the face with the absolute, incontrovertible fact of inflation. Once that happens, life for us gold bugs will be much more 'enjoyable'. However, until then.............

Good night all............................

To: Those who wait
Wanted to share Grant's comments.
Asia: Surplus of Cars, Clothes, TVs, Dishes and Everything Else but Food

by Jim Grant

Jim Grant, respected proprietor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, wonders if excess productive capacity in the Far
East have an impact on world economic health. Asian stock markets are already reeling. In August he suggested
hedging in bonds.

The idea we've been working on for many a moon, in these pages and between hard covers, is that prosperity is self-limiting.
There can be no New Era because speculative markets won't stand for it. Booms, in fact, cause busts. Incited by low interest
rates, capitalists will build something. Stimulated by ultra-low interest rates, by ultra-high equity valuations and by the
supporting New Era theories, they will build some more. They will not stop building, in fact, we have observed, until the money
stops. .. [The result] capital investments [have] boomed, setting records.

Now it is coming to light that there was too much of them. Of which? Semiconductor fabs, aircraft manufacturing facilities,
retail stores, auto plants, commercial banks and commodity-chemical manufacturing facilities.

There are too many hotels in Phoenix, too much manufacturing capacity in China.

Grant's Asia Observer [Our sister publication] states there's excess capacity throughout Asia in cars, color TVs, optical fiber
cable, clothing, dishes -- just about everything, in fact, except food. "After more than a decade of aggressive investment in new
production capacity to make all manner of manufactured goods," writes our Jeff Uscher, "the region is saturated. Much of this
new capacity was funded with foreign capital with the intention of serving the rapidly growing Asian market. The only problem
with this strategy is that the Asian market is not growing rapidly."

Below-market interest rates in Japan in the 1980s were the proximate cause of a capital spending boom in that country.
Similarly, below-market interest rates in the U.S. in the 1990s were the proximate cause of a capital spending boom in this
country. ... We think, the comparison between the twin New Era's -- Japan's, now discredited; America's, still going strong --
constitutes food for thought.

Lonely proponents of the idea of an asset inflation, we're tried not to seem surprised by the growing weight of field reports in
support of the theory. The most nourishing of these materialized in the Aug. 7 Wall Street Journal. "Same Old Cycles" was the
hanger over the front-page headline: "In Some Industries, Executives foresee Tough Times Ahead: They Talk of Overcapacity,
Price Wars, Shakeouts, Even Without Recession; A Key Culprit: High Profits."

"The problems extend beyond the oil, chemical, paper and other industries that process raw materials," the story related. "The
global auto and airline industries are building capacity rapidly, and some experts expect shakeouts in them, too, by 1999.
Already, U.S. retail space and semiconductor-manufacturing capacity are widely acknowledged to far exceed demand."

The Journal went on to add:

"One new twist ... More than past cycles, this one is increasingly global. New factories are going up everywhere, especially in
the emerging nations of Asia and Latin America. And the markets for the products they turn out are increasingly global, too.
So, while U.S. factories, mines and power plants are running at a relatively high 83% or so of capacity, the huge additions of
capacity in Asia and Latin America could strongly affect global markets."

And what is the cause of this outpouring of investment? Financial strength, the paper related, "not weakness ... Airlines, flush
with profits after years of rough flying, are ordering record numbers of aircraft. John Walsh, an independent analyst in
Annapolis, Md., predicts that 900 new airliners will be ordered next year, nearly double the 1995 total and topping the 1992
record."

Of particular interest to investors is the intersection between capacity and valuation. A condition of excess capacity overlaid on
an overvalued stock market would seem to define financial disaster.

Aurator: Low water levels in the Panama canal? Interesting. I think Crook mentioned a link between water ( and/or tide ) levels and El Nino -- is that right, Colleen? It sure would make an impression on shipping if the Panama canal became impassible - a Panimaimpass?

Good thing to have humor at times like this -- I hope Jin has some left. He was right about S. Korea last night.

S+P futures down 10.10.....Jimmy Rogers on Squawk box ( CNBC ) tomorrow...A strong employment report tomorrow and the Dow could be in deep do-do...NITE PANDA!!

South Korea
Seoul Composite ^KS11 11:17PM 515.47 -38.40 -6.93%

November 6, 1997
Tokyo stocks plunge, dollar at 6-month high vs yen

TOKYO, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - Tokyo share prices plunged on Friday morning and the dollar rose briefly to a six-month high against the yen as worries spread about Japan's economy and its financial institutions.

The Tokyo stock market's main barometer, the 225-share Nikkei average, sank three percent to end the morning session down 496.61 points at 16,037.26 after a newspaper report that a leading regional bank, the Bank of Yokohama Ltd, would sell off all the shares it holds in other companies over the next two or three years.

The bank strongly denied the report.

Persistent worries about the impact of Asia's economic turmoil on Japan's economy as well as the lingering effect of Sanyo Securities' business failure earlier this week also dampened sentiment and battered financial firms' share prices.

The government will unveil a package of economic steps in the week of November 17, but Economic Planning Agency chief Koji Omi said the measures would focus on deregulation.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/MARKETS-JAPAN.html

Tokyo Nikkei falls to two-year low in afternoon

TOKYO, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - The Tokyo stock market's benchmark index fell below the 16,000-point barrier in early Friday afternoon trade, hitting its lowest level in more than two years.

I don't envy your move but you have to do what you have to do...eh!

temple: . . . . Thu, Nov 6, 10:34AM CST ( -0600 GMT ) AVID

I am not calling for a crash on my preferred count ...just a nice retrace that will retest October lows and, probably, break them sharply to the downside ( after options expiration, of course ... can't have too many winners, can they ) ... then we will move back up to the mid 800 Cash SPX area, then fail big time... all over a period of many months, not days.
No crash! Bear market? You bet. Slow. Grinding. Painful. Filled with brief hope and nasty fakeouts. But no crash. AND IMPORTANT! This is all based on the death of the alternate bull count, which will become the preferred count if we pierce the yesterday's high of Cash SPX 949.62 ....

November 6, 1997
Clinton makes last ditch pitch for fast track

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton Thursday made a last ditch plea to lawmakers to give him fast track trade negotiation authority despite strong opposition by labor and environmental groups.

"A vote against fast track will not create a single job, clean up a single toxic waste site, advance workers' rights or improve the environment anywhere in the world, but it will limit America's ability to advance our economic interests, promote our democratic ideals, our political leadership," Clinton said in the White House briefing room.

"So once again, I call upon the House of Representatives to vote for American leadership, for America's economic future and pass the fast track trade negotiating authority," he said.

A "no" vote Friday would be one of the biggest defeats for the Democratic president since his ill-fated health care reform plan in his first term. Proponents have argued a "no" vote would signal a U.S. retreat on free trade that could be followed by other countries.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TRADE-USA.html

Nick -- I think you're assuming too much about a '29 style debacle and it's aftermath. Step back some, and think about this. The rising economic world powers at that time ( 1920s ) were the U.S. and, Argentina I believe. The dominant power was England. The center of the world economic power was shifting, as it always does. In this case, to the Americas. This time, I think it is shifting to Asia. History seems to indicate that the 'new' rising economic giants suffer the most in financial debacles before rising from the ashes of such debacles ( U.S. Depression in '29 ) . If this is the pattern, then the U.S. should follow in Englands footsteps down the road in to history. England devolved in to socialism. Not a pretty thing, but that's history. It does not portend well for the U.S. of A. The devil is in the details, and this is but a very rough sketch.

BTW, love your market analysis. You give reasons for your opinions, that's a lot more than some do. Good night...............

Japan tanking

Busy times tomorrow for all I think
Aurator -- I hope your move goes well also. Try not to move every time the market moves, or you will give me a complex!

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Thursday November 6 10:56 PM EST

Gold opens lower in Hong Kong on early selling

HONG KONG, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong gold opened lower on Friday compared to New
York's Thursday close after selling in pre-opening trade but dealers said the overall trend remained
mixed on a lack of fresh incentives.

Bullion opened at US$311.40/90 an ounce, down from New York's US$312.20/70 close on
Thursday and Hong Kong's previous close of US$311.80/312.30.

``There is not much interest to sell at the moment,'' said a dealer at a local bullion house. ``The
market lacks a clear sense of direction, with trade mostly trapped in a band between US$310 to
US$315 in the short term.''

Local gold opened HK$5 lower at HK$2,875 a tael.

More news for related categories: stock capsules.


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Questions or Comments?

Question: What Central Bank will announce future or past gold sales this time when the DOW turns down? Anything left to tell?

The Cape Breton central bank is poised to announce a massive sale of gold~~~~~~~~~~~

LGB: The specifics I stated were: criminal act of FDR, robbery of gold from United States Citizens, complete disregard for Constitution. Gold traded to Central Banks for worthless paper.

On to last balanced budget 1969 for USA, Nixon again breaking the law, decoupling altogether from gold, effective upon pen hitting paper, USA defaults. In the years that have past since that time USA has become a service not a production economy. Currency is illegal, currency is worthless, constant and consistent out and out lying about current budget.

Japan, largest creditor nation, USA largest debtor nation. The country and economy are not healthy. Facts one and all. The entire new economy and or paradigm is a joke that has slaughtered the USA. The money that has been made is non-existent.

The entire shell game is near it's inevitable end, poof, just as it was created out of thin air, that is where it will go, thin air. Except their will be larger debts compounding second by second, houses, etc. will be taken and the debt will still be due.

This had nothing to do with gold being a better investment since WWII or since the time our government was KIND enough to allow the law of the land to exist in it's current, bastardized form wherein the people are allowed to own gold which IS A CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT.

November 6, 1997
Saving for retirement important but few have a plan

TORONTO ( CP ) - More than half of Canadians expect to be better off by
the time they retire, but two thirds of them don't have a financial plan to reach that goal, a new national survey suggests.

The CIBC survey - done by A.C. Nielsen - also found that a clear majority of respondents - 59 per cent - held RRSPs, with mutual funds as the most popular investment vehicles.

Almost the same number said RRSPs would be their first or second most
important source for retirement income, while company pension plans and
the Canada Pension Plan were regarded as key income sources by one
third of those polled.

Even though the survey suggests that many Canadians have started saving
for retirement, further questioning revealed few of them knew what they
were doing. When asked to rate their understanding of mutual funds on a scale of one to 10, about one quarter rated themselves a one.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Money-Monitor.html

Down 6-0-7