Aurator
You should really come and have a cup of cha with my da.
Your verb and vernacular are aplomb with prudence.
Power to the prince of popinjay.

To you in return for my childhood delights.
A pearl from the caverns of tolk.

We seek within
A way uncharted
Its strait and narrow paths
Unknown.

Such deeps within
The dark sub-conscious world
We daily plumb in prayer
There gleams
Oftimes, Dear God
A light
But briefly glimpsed
Too often how obscured
By many veils ------
Veils, did I say

By walls; adamantine.
By battlements
Moats and marshes
And bitter mountain passes
Guarded by Orcs -- Balrogs
Sauron himself stands
Grim contestant there

And the one gate
In that great wall
Neither Strider nor Gandalf
Nor Elven Queen nor King
Not even Frodo,
For all his innocence
That door no man can open
Save myself

That door, thou knowest
Each man for himself
Must fit and turn the key
It opens only from within
I know, Dear God
I know it's up to me.

Tolkeins magnificent trilogy is, as are all great works an analogy of the Way.
A modern gospel, a new Pilgrims Progress with a setting beyond our time,
but the same timeless message for mankind.

Hi guys. Just cranking up the sound system. Radio Free Asia its a gas.
Thanks Uncle Sam.

Whatsup?

Nice poem Nick ( A ) ....S+P futures down 10.40... good night all~~~~~~~~~~

Aurator

Too much salt? No amount of salt will disguise your dull wittedness.

You're in BAD Taste! Dead weight, unimanginitive, bordering on stupor. You're incoherent posts are supposed to impress us? Is it your defense mechanismm to disguise your dull thinking?

No hope for you. Are all New Zealanders so "out of it" with their attitudes and thinking?

Or more likely, you're a "reject" trying to impress people on the web?
Sad state of affairs for you.

Ted, JTF:

Report scheduled out Friday morning in Stornoway says Lord Sutherland will decouple the Wool backing from Gold and sell all gold reserves which were buried during the clearances. The sheep have been fleeced again.

The Gael........

Just for contrast.
Thursday November 6 11:15 PM EST

S.Korea's Oct precious metals import prices up

SEOUL, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - Import prices of South Korea's precious metals rose in October from
September in line with the won's weakness against the dollar despite losses on the world bullion market,
the Association of Foreign Trading Agents of Korea ( AFTAK ) said on Friday.

Import prices of precious metals were as follows:

METAL Oct Sept
Gold ( gram ) $10.52 $10.48
Silver ( Kg ) $164.03 $153.97
Platinum ( t/oz ) $422.66 $414.05
Palladium ( t/oz ) $210.99 $191.70
-- Seoul Newsroom ( 822 ) 727 5651
REUTERS

Ken, Right on man. Thought I was the only one who thought that guy is a jerk!

Hep are you there?

Hep are you there?

Ted ....thank-you

Ken and Barbie Lurker
For you grow up.

A man of integrity would I be --
And wise in Judgment
So dear God, teach me

And brave enough,
Compassionate and good
Resourceful and intuitive
And I would
A touch of humour lest I be severe.
And sound good health.
And please, a modicum of wealth.
For you have given us keen eyes
For beauty and the things we prize

The gift of loving too I need.
For you dear God made Eve a maid
And me dear God a man indeed.
And both with thoughtful care

A moderate man you see
And peaceful -- not a prude
For these few simple things I plea.
Dear God -- remember me --

Dear God

That earlier list
Dear God.
Me surely dreaming!
A moralistic theme
Composed no doubt
In a grey moment

What I'd really like
Dear God
Even now, grown old,
Is a garden
And a woman at my side
To help me tend it
Woman are wonderful friends
And often wonderful gardeners.
Such a loving empathy with life

And this life's a garden
Needing care.
So forget that list
Dear God.
Just take me as I am
And, if there's the chance
Of such a garden
And such a friend
Dear God -- Remember me


Over two thousand years ago Horace -- great Roman poet wrote to a good friend
" This was in my prayers;
A piece of ground not overlarge,
And near to a stream of constant water,
And beside these some little quantity of woodland "
Truly the dream of all peoples.

Yeah, I'm here ass-hole so now get lost.

What seems to be the problem little buddy?

The only negative I can see about VENGOLD is the number of shares that "cheesehead "stated as outstanding. VENGOLD has excellent management with the ability to to make the best of the situation. I believe that there establishment of the Lihir base kept them from making a bid on Casa Beradi, which is not as dead as we are led to believe. Big question is, Does Ivanhoe -spelt Friedlander still have an interest- this can be a major plus.
So little AURIZON is picking up CASA BERADI for a good price. This little miner who has done well, up and until the gold price bust is NOW in the drivers seat at Casa Beradi. THINK ABOUT IT.

I still like you. Hate verbage and all. What's this market doing.
Is AG stalling for the PAC rim to regain its' strength in '98 and
explode the global market to 2000?

I used to subscribe to several banking newsletters and closely watched the alleged banking crisis fix. One of the most interesting newsletters I subscribed provided extensive details about the new currency which had been printed. This was approximately 8 years ago.

The facility where the money is printed and stored in in Ft. Worth Texas. This is one of the most high tech, high security gov installations in the world. Descriptions of the defense and surveillance systems are a bit scary.

The new currency is supposedly smaller than the current greenback. It is printed in pink, light blue and brown. It contain the pyramid seal and is made of a very tough plastic material that cannot be ripped.

Let's look a little further down the line past the crash. The insane trashing of world currencies begins to make little more sense. I suggest that the new currency will not be mandated but offered as an option. Of course by then the dollar will be practically worthless at this point.

I pray that middle class America is not as guillable as I fear they are.
I suspect the new currency will trade at a set value in relation gold. If this happens we have a major problem.

Any thoughts about where we would go from here?

Your too late guys, told that Aurator character what I thought of him
and his mindless posts months ago, and I repeat.
"If you can't dazzle them with your intelligence, baffle them with bullshit".

Whatever they do with gold isn't going to change the falling marekts and the world currency crisis. Sooner than later they will move on to other hats to juggle and let gold alone. All is looking just fine. We need to be attentive and patient.



Australia All Ordinaries ^AORD 12:06AM 2513.4 -2.24%
China Shanghai Composite ^SSEC 12:26AM 1186.996 +5.873 +0.50%
Hong Kong Hang Seng ^HSI 11:30PM 9891.42 -521.14 -5.00%
India BSE 30 ^BSESN 12:25AM 3754.80 -9.16 -0.24%
Indonesia Jakarta Composite ^JKSE 11:30PM 467.324 -11.589 -2.42%
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 12:26AM 15927.57 -606.30 -3.67%
Malaysia KLSE Composite ^KLSE 11:31PM 717.52 -13.52 -1.85%
New Zealand NZSE 40 ^NZ40C 10:17PM 2485.50 -13.25 -0.53%
Pakistan Karachi 100 ^KSE 7:02AM 1845.17 0.00 0.00%
Singapore Straits Times ^SS1 11:31PM 1686.03 -4.50 -0.27%
South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 12:26AM 516.10 -37.77 -6.82%
Sri Lanka All Share ^CSE 3:57AM 737.80 +3.20 +0.44%
Taiwan Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 11:03PM 7860.09 -216.68 -2.68%
Thailand SET ^SETI 12:26AM 500.83 +22.51 +4.71%

Define the source of the alternative currency and how you sell it
to little old men and ladies ( the 1% who control the mjority of
national wealth ) . Would gold not be an easier sell ? The scenario is
still plausable.

HEP Are you in a good mood. I want to talk briefly with you if it's OK.

Me thinks Nick must of gotten into some bad acid somewhere along
the line

EB -- That pennant may very well work out as a continuation of the trend, at some point. Don't know if we'll make some kind of an upmove before then or not. I guess it doesn't matter to me as much as to others since I'm more of a day-trader. I just think that my 312 area breakage signifies the point where that down trend continues. That would take Dec. to 305, and then closer to 300 I think. But at anytime it decided to bounce off of any level in between, it would 'perk' some interest! One more thing, I've seen pennants get broken quite decently in the opposite direction before continuing the trend. Sept/Oct spike in gold as one example. Therefore, I can see your rational in shorting it again should it ever regain the 330 area.

And another asina country apparently likes their gold.


Thursday November 6 11:29 PM EST

Taiwan October gold imports up 30.4 pct yr/yr

TAIPEI, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - Taiwan's imports of gold bars, coins and plate in October rose 30.4 percent
to 7.826 tonnes from 6.00 tonnes in October 1996, the Finance Ministry said on Friday.

Traders said falling world gold prices were the main reason for the strong rise in imports.

``Gold prices are falling and many investors and industry users are buying,'' a gold dealer said.

Gold prices sank to a 12-year low of US$308.75 an ounce on October 24 after Switzerland announced
that a government-appointed advisory panel had recommended it sell 1,400 tonnes of gold reserves.

The Finance Ministry said Taiwan's gold exports in October remained modest at 0.276 tonnes, compared
to the 0.329 tonnes exported in October 1996.

The following table lists Taiwan's main sources of gold supply in October ( in tonnes ) :

Country October 1997 October 1996
Australia 2.000 0.200
South Korea 1.507 0.000
United States 1.008 2.500
Hong Kong 0.517 0.678
Switzerland 0.477 1.226
Britain 0.000 0.200
-- Taipei newsroom ( 886 ) 2-508-0815; Fax ( 886 ) 2-508-0204
-- Email: taipei.newsroom@reuters.com
REUTERS

Quit surfing and say HI

Nite. If you talk to LGB tell LGB I was looking for LGB.PS talk to
you again soon.

When the Japanese start to dump Treasuries and buy gold, the world will clearly see that they are buying gold and lots of it. Then the world has to ask itself why gold? Probably better said, people in the US are going to get a crash ( no pun intended ) course in gold as the only real money.

What, all these glorious electrons and wonderful pieces of paper and the Japanese are buying gold. Harsh realities will set in quicker than krazy glue.

JOHN, like tons of email ? Maybe get your HD checked out ?
SHIT HAPPENS !!!!

IBM will break down over the next week.

Nite all. Long day for me tomorrow.

If the dollar is devalued in relation to the new currency there would be very little selling needed. Let's also take into account the massive propaganda machine that is on-line and fully functional which serves as a mouthpiece to the status quo.

A few weeks of glimmering banter about how stable and safe the new currency is deaturing smiling oldsters of the ilk that appear in laxative commercials would have granny scrambling to roll over her CDs into the new "saviour" currency.

This idea will be the solution that that dazed and confused Americans craving stability will cling to like "mommy".

Tolarant1; Japan's situation raises some interesting questions. If they have been so folish to be the biggest holders of US debt and are about to reap the rewards of this action --- where will the sudden insight come from that they should sell the paper and ---- more interesting --why would they suddenly buy gold?

Money itself has no price. In order to put it on an equal footing with all other commodities in this respect, we should be obligated to equate it to itself as its own equivalent.

The price or money-form of commodities is, like their form of value generally, a form quite distinct from their palpable bodily form; it is, therefore, a purely ideal or mental form. Although invisible, the value of iron, linen and corn has actual existence in these very articles; it is ideally made perceptible by their equality with gold, a relation that, so to say, exists only in their own heads.

Their owner must, therefore, lend them his tongue, or hang a ticket on them, before their prices can be communicated to the outside world. Since the expression of the value of commodities in gold is a merely ideal act, we may use for this purpose imaginary or ideal money.

Every trader knows, that he is far from having turned his goods into money, when he has expressed their value in a price or in imaginary money, and that it does not require the least bit of real gold, to estimate in that metal millions of pounds' worth of goods. When, therefore, money serves as a measure of value, it is employed only as imaginary or ideal money. This circumstance has given rise to the wildest theories.

To fix its price, it suffices to equate it to gold in imagination. But to enable it to render to its owner the service of a universal equivalent, it must be actually replaced by gold.

A price therefore implies both that a commodity is exchangeable for money, and also that it must be so exchanged. On the other hand, gold serves as an ideal measure of value, only because it has already, in the process of exchange, established itself as the money-commodity. Under the ideal measure of values there lurks the hard cash.

The debasing of money carried on for centuries by kings and princes to such an extent that, of the original weights of the coins, nothing in fact remained but the names.

Rumpled
Not me I wouldn't touch the stuff - too synthetic.
Mushrooms have much more flavour ( :o}}}}}
BTW - Why do you always talk to yourself???

Aurator
View from the cam - Rabbit Is.
As a 7 year old I used to walk that beach with my dad after storms.
Looking for Dutch gold coins that occasionally got washed up there.
A Dutch trader was wrecked offshore, 17 century I think.
Spent many a hour watching from the top of the blow-hole.
And used to row a 8' pram around Rabbit to chase the snapper -big ones too.
By the time I was 18, I had 4 years sea time accrued.
Enough time to qualify for a skippers ticket.
50m commercial fishing vessel up to 200km offshore.
All the seatime was accrued out of that port.
I know the waterways there intimately, and with fond memory.
Thanks again.

Get a clue you greedy yuppies, half a loaf is better than none.
Would you rather pay tax on some or try to write off a big loss
on nothing.

The current real danger is that gold is too low in price
in terms of $US. At some point during it's precipitous
drop, it will be viewed as a real bargain compared to
other paper assets like bonds. At that point, everyone
will jump on it at the same time. In other words, if
the price of gold continues to drop against the dollar,
at some point it will change the investment focus of
countries like Japan. That will be the point where the
dollar and bonds will have problems. It is not in the
best interest of the US to let gold continue to drop
from here.

Selby: Japan at a certain point was not foolish so much as coerced into buying US paper. There are many economic decisions that went into their holding that much.

In addition it also gives thema tremendous bargaining chip in the international arena most especially with China. Gold is the only money known throughout history and is the only universally disposable money on the globe today.

Japan has to think of survival. The US as well. There have already I am sure been sales of treasuries by Japan, but the word accelerate will take on a whole new meaning.

If there is so much intrinsic value in gold how can it's price be manipulated?

You leave out an important factor. Buying and selling is a group activity. Groups are not particularly sane. If everyone looked at things the way posters on this site do we wouldn't be having any of these problems.

I don't know about you, but I've seen family member waste hundreds sometimes thousands of dollars becuase they didn't understand something. Like the horse running back to his burning barn they paid a premium for familiarity.

Granny doesn't understand gold. My parent don't understand gold. My co-workers don't understand gold. My best friends don't understand gold.
Who, pray tell, will be the evangelist that magically enlightens the masses?

If they didn't act like self important, all knowing cattle we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Nick if its true, lay off the synthetics and take what the good Lord
has to offer.

S. Schultz: I would not bet on all of the elderly dropping into the new paper that easily. My mother is seventy seven and she thinks of gold as the only real money. She lived during the depression. She even quipped the other day that soon we will start giving them numbers like WWI, WWII.

The old may not be spry but they are surely not dense. I think alot of the older people in this country will be pretty feisty, and in my opinion, they are not going to mind seeing alot of these spoiled brats get a taste of reality and life in the real world.

Selby ( Toronto ) ID#287207:
Tolarant1; Japan's situation raises some interesting questions. If they have been so folish to be the biggest
holders of US debt and are about to reap the rewards of this action --- where will the sudden insight come
from that they should sell the paper and ---- more interesting --why would they suddenly buy gold?

It is possible that they may not want to have the Yen appreciate to much. Since there is a world wide currency crisis at hand, they may not feel comfortable picking a currency ( currency of the day or hour ) to park their sales of U.S. bonds. Maybe they were going for the Swiss Franc, but now that the swiss want to sell all that gold, they have had second thoughts. With some reflection noting the bargin basement prices of gold, they may decide to use it as a store of value until things settle down. They can buy all that the cb's want to sell and then more again. Place it in warehouses on the soil and the yen will maintain its low value. They can sell off the bullion at their leisure. ( IMHO )

My hat is off to you sir. Well stated! If your optimism finds even the smallest purchase in truth we shall all fare well.

Anybody has the value of the XAU on these two dates: January 1st 97 and June 30th 1997 ?

AlKahulik ( http://idt.net/~kulick )
Do you or have you ever ran a web site?

Tolerant
I think that if we have a crash, then lots of gold must be sold to pay for bad paper debts.

Just as has already happened in HK.
Where the rich had to sell off their land, houses, cars, boats, furniture, paintings and even their gold.
To pay back the money lenders.

If there is a real serious crash, then the holders of your debt will be able to claim the rights to your wealth.
There will just be a shift of assets from the poor to the rich.
And from the rich to the mega-rich.

Asset relocation always favours the rich, because they have the spare money to lend.
Ask the Jews about money management.

Who will end up with the biggest pile of loot after this debacle?????

My final thought for the evening. PWN - Cash America - this company owns over three hundred pawn shops in the US alone. Credit will get kicked in the teeth. The banks won't be making loans. Pawn Shops offer a viable alternative for people that want money, no, NEED cash.

Sorta like this deli I used to go to. They had a sign up over the register. We don't cash checks and the bank don't make baloney sandwiches.

I take no credit for finding this stock. I came across it in The Great Reckoning - Davisdon Rees-Mogg.

True both Puetz and LGB are artists, but LGB is a BULLSHIT ARTIST and a heckler, while Puetz "puts" ( no pun intended ) his creditabilty on the line with a nationwide newsletter.
Puetz has to make calls, be they right or wrong, but his basic reasoning is excellent. He may get his timing wrong along with the extent of his calls.
I personally believe that his high for gold and low for the markets ( which of I don't fully agree ) has nothing to do with with superior in depth thinking.
Forget his Moon crap ( I think most here just read such material and then discard it ) . We all refer to such things at times; LGB made a big issue of this and effected the many posters who read these attacks.
I remember that LBJ bragged about making money with Benquet Consolidated a Phillipean gold stock, that really sucks smelly wind.
Remember luck is just a good break, we should all have some; but Puetz's logic far exceeds LGB's bullcrap.
LGB is dangerously riding with "the paper currency monetary powers" who have a long history of failing.
Myself, I don't buy anyone's opinions, but rate Puetz as a ten and the Lurking One as a zero.

Guys - it's the reef fish Nick's been eating. You know about them psychodelic Australian variety of reef fish, don't you?

That is the question eh! The Evangelist is dead. Experience is the greatest Teacher. Be thankful, you can communicate via computer, with those of knowledge and experience.

Success is a journey, not a destination.

Ignorance is manipulation eh! Those persons you mentioned will come a calling, when the finger of fate points to those of your community. They then will ask, why did this happen to me. Just tell them, all is well, it is history, and things well get better. : ) : ) : ) They like to hear such remarks. Sad but true. Take care.

G'day antipodeans and sleepless others. Interesting day in OZ today. Started up, everything looked rosy--then Honkers opened and it was downhill from there. Nick@Aussi-- have been workin' my way back into the puts all week. Waited for my favourite NABs to come down in price--to no avail--so bought a heap of ANZs instead. Sold off another load of my SPI puts in the afternoon as they expire in Dec. I always get fidgity with 6 weeks to go as they could expire worthless-- as it was a nice little panic this arvo--got a great price -- the warrants are a good alternative with a year and 1/2 to go. Nikkei decisively down through 16000 -- big trouble ahead, mate!!! Everyone is concentrating on the Honkers meltdown and ignoring the elephant a little further north. Their S.Korean neighbors must be in a state of shock as well. Talk about a meltdown!!! Yanks don't have to worry, though, mate--none of this is gonna affect them!! Pigs may yet fly!! Am still looking for bookings for that DOW 10000 cruise ship. Maybe they'll cancel and have a DOW 5000 cruise instead. All us nasty put-mongers could go and have a whale of a time!!

Auracious-- come and aurate for us, mate.

Good point Nick "If there is a real serious crash, then the holders of your debt will be able to claim the rights to your wealth.
There will just be a shift of assets from the poor to the rich.
And from the rich to the mega-rich. "

This crash is a world wide crash and so far the U.S. dollar has been the beneficary. As you note, as the game plays out money moves to the mega-rich. I am not so sure that the mega-rich in Japan, Switzerland, ... are eager to have the U.S. hold the keys to financial storehouse of value.
It would seem to me that someone or some country would see it to their benefit to cause or more correctly push along the U.S. dollar crisis. As you pointed out several days ago, this is a chance of a life time. Other brillant people of power certainly realize this also.
I am not smart enough to know who the key players or who they will be, but I am positive that they are not playing this game so that the U.S. will be the ultimate winners. The big plays are never the obvious ones, the U.S. dollar will fall. The currency of the next century has yet to be determined, but my gut guess says it will be asian in orgin and I would not be shocked if it turned out to be the Chinese yuan. But I am just a simple goose playing in dangerous waters with sharks and creatures much more fearsome.

Nick: Just saw your post when my last post went up. Getting people to give up their gold will be difficult. Sorta like when everyone was looking for Germans in Germany at the end of WWII. All of a sudden there were lots of Austrians walking the streets.

People will try to get cash anyway they can, but will do all they can to hold on to gold. Assets will be taken, true, house and such reposessed.

Relative to culture, background and such. The older cultures will have gold. Those that have not strayed too far from the backgound, and heritage of their grandparents and parents. I shall not single out and then group together the various culture types. Clearly everyone has an image in their minds eye.

Nick, you are a prudent individual hence our brief dialog earlier about insurance. You and and millions like you that have prepared will become the new rich.

Having will take on a whole new meaning, just as much as not having shall.

Let us hope that we all remain sensitive to others around us. Understanding and forgiveness are a trying suit of clothes for the soul to wear. Given that we should strive for a sense of decency in the coming debacle, we must also not forget one of the main lessons to be learned as well.

When you give someone something for nothing, they become nothing.

I bid you and all a good evening. Peace and keep buying gold.

November 6, 1997
FOCUS-Tokyo's Nikkei average plunges below 16,000

TOKYO, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - The Tokyo stock market's key Nikkei average plunged below 16,000 on Friday for the first time in more than two years, as worries spread about Japan's economy and its banks. The key index of 225 leading shares, already down three percent when the market closed at midday, resumed its slide at the start of the afternoon session. The key market barometer tumbled nearly four percent to a low of 15,876.72 in mid-afternoon trade.

Brokers said, however, that the report exacerbated concerns that Japanese banks and other corporations would speed up the unravelling of cross-shareholdings -- maintained between firms to cement ties -- which were once a pillar of Japan's postwar economic structure.

"It's a serious worry," said Pelham Smithers, a strategist at ING Barings in Tokyo. "Japanese banks have been steadily selling shares for three years at an estimated rate of two percent a year. If the rate were to accelerate, it would result in a supply glut for the market.

"But I think today's fall has more to do with the issue of whether Japan's banking industry is solvent or not," Smithers added

U.S. and Japanese authorities have kept silent during the dollar's recent rise, possibly due to fears that a weakening of the U.S. currency would jolt global financial markets, which have already been unnerved by Asia's currency crisis.

Japanese government bond ( JGB ) prices rose and yields tumbled to a fresh global low on persistent pessimism about the economy, with the yield on the 182nd 10-year cash bond hitting 1.570 percent in early afternoon trade.I think this is a 'sell Japan' type of situation, except that bonds are being bought," said a trader at a major domestic brokerage house. "The yen and Japanese stocks are being sold and investment is shifting towards JGBs."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/MARKETS-JAPAN.html

November 7, 1997
FOCUS-Asia currencies mixed on Thai hopes,won woes

SINGAPORE, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - Asian currencies were mixed on Friday as traders veered between growing optimism of an opposition victory in the fight for Thailand's leadership and fears the South Korean economy was nearing crisis point. Most Southeast Asian currencies were relatively steady, but North Asian markets showed signs of strain due to Seoul's
difficulties and signs the Hong Kong dollar might face another speculative assault.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore ( MAS ) confirmed that it had bought rupiah with the Bank of Japan and Bank Indonesia twice this week.

Talk that Korea would be forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) for assistance as it dealt with a string of corporate defaults and shrinking foreign reserves continued to swirl around the market despite government denials.

IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus backed Seoul's efforts to reassure investors."South Korea has taken, during recent months, courageous measures to prevent dangers. These measures...have produced the desired effect and in particular have contributed to a significant reduction in external imbalances," Camdessus said.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/ASIA-CURRENCIES.html

Tolerant1
How many people do you know who have leveraged themselves into excessive debt.
If many debt lenders find themselves being squeezed then they shall call on the many who owe them.

If there is to be a crash.
I for one fear my debt above all else.
That is why the insurance.
And if paper fails then I can cancel my debts using paper.



All in the red.
http://www.marketgauge.com/gauges/last.htm

COCO: Re xau you might try this site to see if you can get what you want
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/squote?TICKER=$xau&TABLES=EXTEND&SOURCE=core/dbc

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/07/y0020_y00_1.html

tolerant1 Ur 01:11 gave me a chuckle as I have ur Mom beat by a year. Even had the pleasure ( ? ) of being a GI in WWII. Your analysis is partially correct, we elderly have the benefit of experience but how may will use it. Frankly, I see most of my peers as enamored with the mania of the day, just as the rest of the populace. How many of us learn from experience? Experience may be the best teacher, but how many give it a lot of thot? Those of us that went to bed hungary during the depression may give it a bit more than others. I don't carry the handle Ingotwetrust fer nuttin ;- )

November 6, 1997
Juncker plays down clash over EU central bank head

BRUSSELS, Oct 6 ( Reuters ) - Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker on Thursday played down a potential clash between European Union countries over the appointment of a head for the planned European Central Bank ( ECB ) . "It's not a debate of substance. It's a choice between candidates, men, not a choice between two policies," Juncker told a
news briefing.

France left its EU partners flabbergasted on Wednesday when it insisted a Frenchman, Bank of France governor Jean-Claude Trichet, should head the ECB.

Germany, the Netherlands and Italy later said they had not changed their opinion that former Dutch central bank chief Wim Duisenberg, the president of the European Monetary Institute, was suitable to head the ECB.

Juncker, whose country holds the EU presidency, said that since the announcement of Trichet's candidature he had seen no change in opinion among governments which had indicated a preference for Duisenberg. The Dutch and Danish finance ministers said on Wednesday they felt the French move was not helpful for European Monetary Union.

Friday, November 7, 1997
First Marathon named in Bre-X suit
By SANDRA RUBIN
The Financial Post
First Marathon Securities Inc. and gold analyst Kerry Smith were added yesterday to a class action lawsuit filed last spring in Ontario by shareholders of Bre-X Minerals Ltd.

The suit alleges the brokerage and its analyst were negligent, in conflict of interest and in breach of fiduciary duty towards clients who purchased shares in the disgraced exploration firm.

First Marathon said it intends to defend itself vigorously and branded the allegations "totally without merit." First Marathon was named in another Bre-X class action suit filed in Ontario last Friday.

If some low grade listed stocks can trade above five times book value and if ANOTHER is correct about oil deals hiding actual gold investment sale volumes, then why can't a black market in gold be created by gold bugs. ( grin thing )
We have to admit, thus far they are sqeezing us by our nuts.

Thursday, November 6, 1997
New U.S. jobless claims jump in latest week

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Unemployed Americans flocked to jobless claims offices in late October, pushing up new applications for state benefits to the highest level in nearly two months, the government said on Thursday.
Jobless claims rose by 16,000 to 315,000 in the week ended Nov. 1 from the previous week's revised figure of 299,000, the Labor Department said.

Japan looks like it's in deep s***. Closed decisively below 16,000. Hang Seng struggling back to just above 10,000 now. Gold up .60, Silver up .05. PAASF, SSRIF, FSR holding up well and even advancing a little. Love them three stocks. Gotta be some nervous people in Washington and Wall Street about now. Plunge Protection Team standing by on full alert.

November 6, 1997
Canadian economy racing despite jobless drag

TORONTO ( CP ) - Jim Weatherup beams when asked about Canada's booming economy. "I think people are in a giving and a spending mood - everybody seems to be pretty up," he says, as shoppers and Bay Street executives dart in and out of a nearby subway station in Toronto's financial district.

"I'm really high on the economy." His bubbly optimism is typical in this part of town. Throw a rock at one of those gleaming bank towers and you'd probably hit a financial analyst going gaga about Canada's rapid growth and double-digit stock market gains.

But Weatherup is no economist. He hasn't had a job since he suffered a heart attack in 1992. The former insurance underwriter now panhandles for change, using a sign that says,

Hi! I'm 65 and they say unemployable. A few dollars would help. Thank you. Jim.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Booming-Economy.html

Don't look now but gold is actally UP for a change.What's up,hedge fund
managers gone out for a cigar and brandy,or is this the next fake out
before another central bank or manipulative government announcement?
Next one should send it right through the floor boards.Three thirty or
bust next week.

November 7, 1997
Chuan says ready to form new Thai government

BANGKOK, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - Thai opposition leader Chuan Leekpai of the Democrat Party said on Friday he had the support of enough members of parliament and was ready to form a new government to manage the crisis-hit country.

The share and currency markets have cheered the possible appointment of Chuan's party at the head of a new coalition, hoping it can help curb Thailand's economic downtrend.

Chuan is regarded by the business community as the best hope for the economy. His Democrat party has a good team of politicians with strong economic experience.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/THAILAND-DEMOCRATS.html

So the states would like to update the geenback. Unripable, unforgeable
unforgiving. What happens when they get back 500 billion in couterfeit
bills. What a headache that will be. Comments appreciated.

November 6, 1997
S.Korea President Kim leaves ruling party

SEOUL, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - South Korean President Kim Young-sam on Friday said he would leave the ruling New Korea Party to ensure a fair presidential election, his presidential spokesman said.

"In order to ensure a fair and just 15th presidential election and concentrate on government issues, President Kim Young-sam has decided to leave the New Korea Party today," said the spokesman.

He added that Kim would give a special address on Saturday at 10 a.m. ( 0100 GMT ) on the presidential elections, which take place on December 18.

The jailing of his second son, Kim Hyun-chul, for bribery and tax evasion also damaged Kim Young-sam's initial image as a corruption fighter. His son was released from prison this week on bail, attracting criticism from the opposition and civic groups.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/KOREA-ELECTION.html

I must be up to late, I have posted enough. Gone for now. Have a good day everyone.

Anyone looking for a fish for their tank check out the fathead feeders available on the Asian markets. Looks like the fish are looking for a new TANK!! Don't worry the IMF/World Bank will save those, peasants too!! I hear there will be a run of the Bank of Montreal if Brazil defaults on it loans, don't worry the IMF/World Bank will inject some paper assets there too!! Happy, Happy!!! Don't worry the DOW will save all investors big and small so don't be worried, Happy, Happy!!! TANK TANK TANK TANK TANK TANK We'll save South Korea and their currency too, Happy, Happy!!!

Off topic--Almost by definition, any Kitcoite is at least eccentric. Not what you call mainstream. Here is a site whose URL is self explanatory. http://www.beyondweird.com/ Might go well with shrooms or buds!

Time for Act II in Europe. France CAC down 3% at the start. Aurator--Ignore that jerk from earlier, your posts are most welcome here! Also, glad to have Eldorado back. Other missed posters--Mooney, RJ, Earl, Cherokee, Vieserre. Apologies to those I left out, I am sure there are others.

Auric: Your "beyond wierd" webs site is great! Always reassuring that there is something even odder than a "gold bug" like myself! Sometimes wake up Saturday morning listening to the "Art Bell" show -- wake up real quickly with some of those stories!

I'm wondering if the international markets keep dropping like this will not the NA markets move in the same direction sooner or later?? Should many of these companies buying back their stock and investing in the exchanges see a decrease in the equity positions and head for cover?? I would figure some of them should or would be in a sort of entrenchment strategy by now or I'm I just a bleeding heart? Just say I owned a clothing store and business was dropping drastically would'nt or should'nt I be looking for some ovens to flip burgers on instead of hoping some reprieve from my banker. Its frustrating watching so many people and companies sitting on the the verge of catastrope and the so called pros are trying so hard to play this down like it happens everyday. Is there any sanity left in this world??

Leaner: I hesitate to make daily predictions because they almost always turn out wrong but today does not look good for North American stock markets. I am curious to see the reaction in bonds and gold. These days gold just staying flat seems like a victory.

Gold 313.40 +0.95 5:01
Silver 4.97 +0.07 4:38

SPOOS DOWN 1430

Auric: In defense of eccentrics...many of the great advances of civilization were made by them.

Whatever happened to Cherokee? Away?

JTF--A real humdinger of a site, eh? I expect that Millennial Madness will become more pronounced, especially if and when the economy sours. leaner-- Haven't had a really big recession since '81-'83. Many land mines lie just up ahead. The EMU, Y2K, El Nino, Derivatives, Clinton-Gore troubles....I could go on. IMHO, this is a time to hunker down and get ready for the approaching storm. I got a feeling it's gonna be a doozy!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/fujiy_y00_1.html

To: A. Goose and all that wait

Friday, Nov 7, 1997
Brazil shares fall sharply in wake of Asian turmoil.
Rumours of liquidity problems.

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/v5e702.htm

Donald--Agree completely. The list of eccentrics who have elevated civilization is long indeed... Da Vinci, Shakespeare, Einstein, Auric, etc.

tolerant1: Like your comments about PWN. I think that is the perfect contrary indicator -- when PWN starts to skyrocket in the US, then duck! The debt bubble will have burst at that point. I have read James Earl Davidson's book also -- quite a tome. Rather negative and gloom and doomish, but still worthwhile regardless. What is needed is a book that is a bit more positive, because in all big trend changes are the seeds of the next era, as well as the end of the last. We should never forget looking for the good that may come -- even though it may be very difficult. Jin I am sure -- of all of us -- is having the hardest time of all. He is in the thick of things.
By the way, you are right that not everyone is a firm believer in paper and debt. My mother in law survived the Communist Chinese takeover -- born and raised in Shanghai -- she knows something about the value of gold, though she has little. Gold accounts are quite common in Europe, where border turmoil is much more recent than in the USA. Portable assets are necessary if you have to move in a hurry. We Americans have been spoiled with long periods of peace within our borders. Never a good idea to ignore the lessons of history.
Jin -- everything ok?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/tbr_y0032_1.html

Tolerant1: Everyone hopes to avoid depressions. The best way to avoid them is to allow recessions. Recessions and depressions do the work that politicians are loath to do. Work that is necessary to continued prosperity in general. Failure is the best teacher.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/04/z0009_21.html

There is no sanity in a manic phase. All is perfectly clear and right until depression overwhelms. It is a disease. My wife asked me the other day why people don't see what is really happening to them. I thought about it for a few minutes and replied: because people who are caughht up in a mania can't see that they are caught up in a mania, it is that consuming to them. It is an all embracing emotional state which leads the mind by rationalization. ( Sorry for jumping in since your post wasn't to me. ) Depressive phases are just as all embracing and emotionally binding which explains why "depressions" ( economic ) take so long to overthrow.

Donald you hit it on the head I think today could very well be see a sharp drop in the NA markets. This weeks sideway motion was intersting but today could be the crescendo many of you posters have been speaking about for months now, its premature but you people have this one pegged. If not today, it won't be long until the free fall from grace happens, we are faced with babble of competing opinions and conflicting ideas, keep the faith so we may understand compassion for our fellow man. Many of us know of the diabolical plans of a few but we must keep ourselfs honest and aware of these troubled times that lay ahead. Good Luck Goldbugs!!

Donald, Auric: I have known some scientific visionaries in my earlier idealistic days. Some of the ones who became most famous later, were ignored in their early days as eccentrics.
One must be cautious listening to the fringe because much of what is there is worthless, but that is also where the seeds of the future lie as well. The "zero point" and "free energy" sites I think are like this -- would be nice to be energy independent now, instead of worrying about $30 oil, and the economic turmoil that will bring - especially to SE Asia, where the price is already effectively gone up 30% in the last 6 months. Unfortunately, except for two "over unity" electric motor prototypes made by the Japanese ( Wankel and Takahashi ) there is little to indicate relief from our pending energy cost crisis. I am not certain that these motors would work well in mass production, but the concepts behind their construction have great significance.
On the otherhand, as they say "Necessity is the mother of invention". It is frustrating that sometimes we must wait for the crisis to get the solution - but democratic countries are built that way.
I think it was Winston Churchill who said that democracy was a terrible form of government, but that it was the best we had, because communism ( and totalitarianism? ) was worse. What I mean is that we will have our energy solutions, but just a little later than we would want. Lets not wait for the "Pheonix rising from the ashes" style of life, if we can help it.
Here's to the future, whatever comes. Lets hope for the best for Jin and his family, who is close to the center of it all.

Couldn't access the site you just posted. Needs a login name and password. Can you post the contents or summerize. Thanks!

I think you are thinking the same thing I am thinking. I think it is part of human nature to go through extreme cycles. Just as it is natural for those forest fires to clear the brush -- remember when Yellowstone had those bad fires because the forresters tried to prevent forest fires completely? After the fire, new growth begins again. We cannot avoid these cycles, even when we try to understand and control them. They are part of life, and us. Something like trying to cut off your arm, I think when the economists try to eliminate business cycles. Don't want to eliminate the forrest fires completely if the consequence is the granddaddy burning of them all. I hope the economicists of the future will learn about "controlled burns". Always worth hoping that the next generation will learn something from our folly.

Allen ( USA ) : Just in case SDRer doesn't respond right away, that "hippocampus" sit is the UK Financial Times -- password and access is free --excellent site and worth a little delay in filling out a form.

Well, looks like a good sell off is in the work forour markets. Considering the waffling past three day's performance I'd wager that we have been waiting for an excuse to fall here. Breach 7000 today, what say?

This next round in asia will probably set Latin America into downward motion. Once we start seeing bank failures in our own time zones we'll ( US&CANADA ) get a bit more tense and see contingency plans kick in.

Ma&Pa & Joe Yuppie investors have no clue and will not think about splitting this scene until they have been almost entirely fleeced by the professionals. They are as ignorant of their risk as a chicken crossing the DC Beltway in rush hour. The strong sentiment about buy and hold is the only thing they know about investing/gambling. Their primary and single education has been from the salesmen and salewomen who are called "financial planners" et al. They have been taught that they are in danger of poverty in old age unless they begin to 'invest for their future'. This emotional bind is very strong. Hence they will need a VERY big kick in the tush to wake up from this dream world.

Take a minute to consider all the emotional needs/wants that are being met by participation in mutual funds or stocks. Think about the emotional state of those you have spoken with who pledge their undying loyalty to 'buy and hold' as well as 'dollar cost averaging'. What shocking revelation will it take to break them spell which they are under? Answer: reality will deliver it and more so in sspades.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/05/y0004_z00_14.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/y0004_z00_26.html

Thanks, got it now.

Yes - today will be momentous - doubt that there will be any time to buy any more market shorts this am - we watch from the sidelines. Don't buy into a locked market and get what you don't want.
All: Have you noticed that Hong Kong has been taking the heat, and not China? China will be the Phoenix that will rise from the currency ashes in SE Asia. I think we are seeing the shift of economic power from Japan to China -- history is in the making.
Wish it were not so traumatic.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/y0003_y00_4.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/07/z0000_3.html

Full impact of Asian crisis to be felt in '98. http://www.afr.com.au/content/97/11/07/world/world2.html

I think George Cole mentioned yesterday that it was the financial aspect that was of most concern to him ( verses the economic ) . Economic pronouncements are meaningless in relation to the financial turmoil we are seeing. Unfortunately the news media and governments are not making a distinction between the two. Possibly this is very convenient and my cynical side feels that there is alot of selling on the part of people who are saying that 'all is well'. Similarly holding gold down may be like keeping the door open for your friends until they all get in, no? A great buying opportunity.

It has been good to hear from various folks who called around their local area shops to get information on availability, etc. It seems that we should all hitch a ride to New Zealand to clean them out at spot ( like Nick@Canberra ) since they aren't awake yet. It'd probably pay for the trip out and back.

I sure hope those of you who were waiting to buy the physical have done so. My sense is that in short order there will be virtually nothing to buy. Coin shops have little bullion inventory in keeping with more recent philosophy of just in time inventory. They are relying on a few very large supplyiers to provide supply on demand. Unfortunately JIT inventory systems only work well when demand is very predictable. Since JIT pushes the risk of holding inventory to the supplier, suppliers tend to get pretty light in their warehouses. Hence my feeling that the 10 - 15 day back orders some of you are experiencing is due to the fact that the main suppliers had no inventory either. Everyone went calling to the mint, which was overwhelmed with orders and doesn't have the staff to expedite them.

The next surge in demand will find this situation multiplied by the emotional tension of the second wave of buyers. Sort of like the UPS strike. Wouldn't be suprised to see 'no new customer' signs begin to appear.

Try again http://www.afr.com.au/content/971107/world/world2.html

To: Allen@USA
Re: Good morning Request

Brazilian shares fell sharply yesterday on the back of renewed economic instability in Asia, sparking another nervous day on Latin American financial markets. Sao Paulo's Bovespa index was also hit by new rumors of liquidty problems at Brazilian banks.
Facing rising speculation that it might be forced into a devaluation, the Brazilian gov't last week doubled interest rates to 43.3%.
Carlos Kawall, chief economist at Citibank, Sao Paulo, estimated that the Brazilian CB used 7B of 61B foreign reserves defending currency last week.
The Brazilian market continued to be affected by rumors that the sharp fall in stock and bond prices over the past fortnight was creating liquidity problems for local banks.

You may wish to register ( for free and a few moments of your time ) . Home page with registration site is http://www.ft.com
As you have no doubt surmised, it is the Financial Times home page.

Spoos way down on globex, but bonds still the main beneficiary. Gold up just 90 cents. Technical action and reaction to news still very poor.

Your financial sensor is right again, I think -- what is happening this morning ( USA ) is that South Korea is melting down, not Brazil or Japan -- at least not yet, anyway. Jin was right! Even we don't see as well as Jin -- but we are at least days ahead of the crowd. Donald - thanks again for what you and others are doing for the rest of us Kitcoites. Our early warning system - our own DEW line.

Good Morning, JTF - Very astute observation about the momentous shift in the offing toward China. Donald - Re. recessions and worse, I think the battle ground here will be political, The question is whether the very same people who have tried to guard human rights and individual liberty, will be first in line to demand that government save them.

To: Eldorado@the scene, ...it doesnt matter

Why it matters
When USD no longer key currency, well all still be paid in USD, and spend USD...
DEVALUED USD!
So
Not deflation, where cash is king...
But Devaluation, where holding tangible assets that store VALUE is prima...
Conservation of wealth, yes?

That is why, yesterday, I said to use the terms inflation/deflation focus our mind-set where the MOPS ( Ministries of Propaganda ) would have them be. In the approaching Crisis, Fiat Cash will NOT be king.

Or am I stumbling around in the dark?

Well yesterday I was saying how boring the markets-gold were and how some ACTION would be nice---looks like I got my wish as S+P futures are down 14.50 along with most everything else and now in a little over an hour the EMPLOYMENT REPORT ( consenus est. of 203,000 jobs created ) comes out--Even though it's a sunny-calm day on the ocean I think I'll delay my kayaking for a bit...JTF: JIN has been right on since last spring about gold+ the markets ( I hope he is having a good holiday in Thailand!! )

To: Anyone Who Can Explain

What is going on with Platinum? and Palladium? Is someone's derivitive exploding? I've not seen the PM's "decouple" like this before.

Morning All!
A lot on Saddam/UN on the news at the moment. What's on in the North?
Great posts today- thank you Allen, JTF, Donald, SDRer [Hello!] Wish I could contribute more- trying to do my 'bit'in the background, fwiw.

JTF, NICK: 5 more to come - are you ready?

Hey friend Bill is all OK with you- no answer to my emails. I've had
email problems last weekend with the server, are you having any?

Re Golds & stuff- if I'm not mistaken many have bottomed, including the
XAU!!!?

Colleen
Fire away

Ken Abrams ( 00:11 ) ,Old Dog ( 00:15 ) and Rumpled ( 00:31 ) or should I say the THREE MORONS...Aurator has more on the ball than the three of you combined---by a loooong shot!!

CrerOkee is on a "trip" to Las Vegas and California---will be back soon!

I'm ready - but one per post, without text?
All - will check in later at work -- good luck today whatever you are up to.

Dollar plunging in Europe. Can the $US Bonds be far behind?
B-POUND DEC97 1.6896B +22
D-MARK DEC97 .5876A +62
SWISS FR DEC97 .7233B +124
The stock market is toast. Japan Nikkei closed under 16,000 ( lowest level since 1995 ) today. ( a Friday ) What do you think will happen Monday? Banzai ! Gimmee Shelter, Gimme GOLD !

Make that CherOkee

Morning All-last message lost-. Thank you Allen! JTF Donald, SDRer [Hello!] for great posts this morning.

JTF:/NICK@A- 5 more to come- are you ready? [:-}

SDRer- Thanks for UK Fin. Times site-
Is the Headline News below important?

Japan regrets Seoul move
Ryutaro Hashimoto, the Japanese prime minister, said he regretted South Korea's completion of a docking facility on an island in the Sea of Japan claimed by both countries. But he called for the problem not to damage Japan-South Korean relations, even though both might continue to press claims. South Korea said the wharf, which took two years to complete, would serve mainly fishermen and guards.

Joberg down 1.2% this morning despite modest gold bounce. Final selling climax in gold and gold shares still looks like a good bet.

"Hippo" = horse "Campus" = worm
"Hippocampus" = "seahorse", that curious creature in which the male of the species "gets pregnant" and carries the young until they are ready to be born.

"Hippocampus" also is the part of the brain responsible for short-term memory creation and storage, affected often in Alzheimer's dementia.

Even though the headlines of this article are wrong:
November 7, 1997

Hong Kong Leads Decline
In Asian-Pacific Stocks

An INTERACTIVE JOURNAL News Roundup

Tokyo's Nikkei fell 4.2% Friday on renewed fears that struggling Japanese
financial institutions may unload their equities to improve their balance
sheets. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell nearly 3% on worries
about volatility in local interest rates. Other Asian markets were falling in
the intraday Asian trading session.

In Hong Kong, concerns over local interest rate volatility and the weaker
performance in other Asian markets have damped investors' interest in
local stocks. Losses on blue-chip shares deepened when the market
reopened in the afternoon.

Despite the news that the International Monetary Fund reiterated its
approval of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system Friday, the Hang
Seng Index tumbled 308.06, or 3.0%, to 10104.50.

The Nikkei stock average plunged 4.2% to its lowest level in 28 months
as investors dumped shares on a news report that Bank of Yokohama
decided to sell almost all its stock portfolio in two to three years.

The report, which said Bank of Yokohama would sell stocks with a book
value of nearly 600 billion yen to improve its balance sheet, added to fears
that many other struggling Japanese financial institutions would take such
action.

The Nikkei average of 225 selected issues tumbled 697.51 to 15836.36
after an 85.82-point rise Thursday.

The Nikkei last finished below 16000 on July 6, 1995, when it closed at
15256.89. The 16000-level is believed to be crucial for the market
because below that level, many banks have unrealized losses on their
stock holdings.

Overseas investors had already been unloading financial issues in recent
sessions due to worries about their exposure to the Asian currency crisis.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun report added fuel to the fire.

When the report "suddenly appeared on the front page of the Nikkei, it
was enough to discourage investors" even further, said Mikio Takada,
general manager of the stock division at Nikko Securities.

Bank of Yokohama, while not confirming the report, didn't do much to
allay the fears. It issued two brief statements during the day. The first one
said it didn't plan to sell "all" its stock holdings. The second reiterated this
but confirmed that the bank was "adjusting" its stock and loan portfolios as
part of a program of shrinking assets.

Other Asian markets that have closed so far in the Asian day were hurt by
the drops in Tokyo and Hong Kong. The key index in Australia fell 2.2%
and in Taiwan, 2.7%.

The Korea Stock Exchange's key index fell 6.9%, the biggest one-day
drop, on selling sprees spurred by a sharp decline of the Korean won
against the dollar, as well as the regional drop.

Among markets that have not closed yet intraday trading Friday, share
prices were falling in Indonesia and Malaysia. Singapore shares were flat.

However, stocks were solidly higher in Thailand as investors bid up
equities in anticipation of opposition Democrat Party leader Chuan
Leekpai being appointed as the country's new prime minister.

European markets were following Hong Kong's drop in early trading
Friday.

The Financial Times Stock Exchange index was down 1.5% and the
IBIS-DAX in Frankfurt was down 2.3%.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange's three main boards early Friday,
the All Share Index was down 141.50 to 6749.30, the Industrial Index
has shed 156.80 to 8143.90, while the All Gold Index has lost 13.80 to
877.60.

Asian Stock Market Indexes
Market
Index
Nov. 7
Change
Australia
All Ordinaries
2513.40*
- 2.24%
Hong Kong
Hang Seng
10104.50*
- 2.96%
Indonesia
JSX Index
475.216
- 0.77%
Japan
Nikkei
15836.36*
- 4.22%
Malaysia
KLSE Composite
728.14
- 0.40%
Philippines
PSE Index
1893.61*
+ 0.03%
Singapore
STII
1690.61
+ 0.00%
S. Korea
Korea Composite
515.63*
- 6.90%
Taiwan
Weighted
7860.09*
- 2.68%
Thailand
SET
496.16
+ 3.73%


* Friday's close.

Return to top of page
Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Thanks for updating me on CherOkee's whereabouts. I await more spiritual insights and prognostications with sublime anticipation.

Any thoughts on why is this Bond rally continuing ( now 6.12 ) . When and why will it fail?

S+P futures are LIMIT-DOWN with a half hour till employment report.. ( they better hurry up amd make up some good #'s.. ) spin spin spin...Crystal Ball: Me 2

Flight ta quality ( ?? )

That fast track bill better get voted on early this morning. If the market starts moving down they will be hard pressed to pass it. Opening trade to the rest of the world won't mean much when the planet is going broke.

As apt now as last time.

The Song Of The Little Hunter

Ere Mor the Peacock flutters, ere the Monkey People cry,
Ere Chil the Kite swoops down a furlong sheer,
Through the Jungle very softly flits a shadow and a sigh -
He is Fear, O Little Hunter, he is Fear!
Very softly down the glade runs a waiting, watching shade,
And the whisper spreads and widens far and near.
And the sweat is on thy brow, for he passes even now -
He is Fear, O Little Hunter, he is Fear!

Ere the moon has climbed the mountain, ere the rocks are ribbed with light,
When the downward-dipping trails are dank and drear,
Comes a breathing hard behind thee - snuffle-snuffle through the night -
It is Fear, O Little Hunter, it is Fear!
On thy knees and draw the bow; bid the shrilling arrow go;
In the empty mocking thicket plunge the spear!
But thy hands are loosed and weak, and the blood has left thy cheek -
It is Fear, O Little Hunter, it is Fear!

When the heat-cloud sucks the tempest, when the slivered pine-trees fall,
When the blinding, blaring rain-squalls lash and veer,
Through the war-gongs of the thunder rings a voice more loud than all -
It is Fear, O Little Hunter, it is Fear!
Now the spates are banked and deep; now the footless boulders leap -
Now the lightning shows each littlest leaf-rib clear -
But the throat is shut and dried, and thy heart against thy side
Hammers: It is Fear, O Little Hunter, this is Fear!

R. Kipling

US Bonds are rallying as the "movers and shakers" are bailing out of stock markets around the world ( SPoos limit down, by the way ) looking for "safety," as they expect "DEFLATION" to follow the crash like it did in 1929. They correctly assume A.G. and Co. will lower interest rates in response. US Treasury Bond prices rise as yields fall ( as you noted, now down to 6.10-6.12 ) . People feel "safe" with treasuries, because they are guaranteed by "the full faith and credit" of the U.S.; in other words, it's unlikely the U.S. will EXPLICITLY default on the bonds ( refuse to pay or be unable to pay ) as can happen with corporate or municipal bonds. What they fail to realize is that the U.S. government can IMPLICITLY default on the bonds ( back door ) , by paying them back with worthless, devaluated pieces of toilet paper. Don't forget, they have the printing presses and the FED ( read, "Engine of Inflation" ) , and they can keep printing money and maki

Ted:

Maybe they are sitting around trying to make up some numbers. What do you think would be comforting numbers? If they go with the no jobs, declining wages kind of number which brings joys to the heart of bond holders this might not do the trick for the deflation scared crowd.

If they were to go for the strong job growth with a small bit of wage inflation this would be good for the 'out economy is strong' line but it might unnerve the bond fools.

When the mood starts to turn sour, so does the news, no matter what the content.

Good Morning ALL! ( and a special hello to Auric ) . This just in from outer space. ( Stolen from a sub-site ( the PANIC ENCYCLOPEDIA ) of the weird URL that Auric gave us around 4:00 this morning ) . If anyone can totally translate it into layman's language, let me know. Sheesh, I thought I was verbose.
"....Political Economy now expires before our very own eyes, disappeared by its own self-mutation into a speculative transeconomy which undermines its productivist logic ( the law of value, the laws of the marketplace, production, surplus value, the logic of capital itself ) , and which no
longer has anything to do with either the economic or the political - a pure game of floating and aribtrary rules, a fatal game of catastrophe.

Curiously, Political Economy suddenly ended like this: not at all like we expected but in a very specific manner - exacerbating itself to the point of parody.
Speculation is no longer surplus value; it is surplus to value ( plus-que-valeur ) . It is the ecstasy of value, without reference to production or to its real conditions. It is the pure ( and empty ) form, the expurged form of value, one which plays now only on its own revolution ( its own orbital calculation ) . And it is in this destabilization itself - monstrous, even ironic in a way - that Political Economy also short-circuits all other alternatives. After all, what could one oppose to such a high bid, which recuperates all of the symbolic energy of the potlatch, of poker, of the challenge to its own logic? What could ever be opposed to the final high bid of the disappearance of Political Economy, a bid which constitutes, in a certain manner,
the passage to the aesthetic and delirious phase of Political Economy - the least expected ending of all endings, finally much more original, in essence, than our utopian politics?"
Jean Baudrillard - translation by Faye Trecartin and Arthur Kroker - 1989

Don't forget, they have the printing presses and the FED ( read, "Engine of Inflation" ) , and they can keep printing money and making book-keeping entries as long as there are paper, ink, and electrons. ( There is not likely to ever be a shortage of electrons ) Whoever said it earlier is correct - - Paper dollars will not be king in the aftermath of the coming typhoon. CASH in its original sense ( GOLD, SILVER, REAL MONEY ) will be king. Do not doubt it. As the dollar keeps falling, people will wake up to the fact that the principal and interest they receive back from the treasury is COUNTERFEIT paper. When they wake up, bonds will fall into the abyss that claimed the Zloty, the Ruble, the Continental dollar, and Weimar Republic Marks. Franz Pick, O voice in the wilderness, where are you now that we need you !

Reminds me of the time I painted myself into a corner.....The ocean is as calm as it can get and even though the urge to kayak is great,I have to maintain my seat @ the Cape Breton crash-control headquarters...How long till Rubin appears??

George Cole: You may find the opposite to be true in gold my friend. Nobody has gold stocks. They have had their depression. As the price of gold moves many will not be able to get their hands on physical. They will have limited opportunities to purchase. The mutual fund managers that can, will move into metal stocks. Those that have exposure already will increase holdings. If 5% percent of mutual money moved into the metal stocksyou know the answer I am sure.

Coins will dry up, rare coin market will start to pick up.

Many will discover e-gold, this would be advantageous for people around the globe with access to a computer. This would allow many to spirit their wealth away from figment paper standard to real money with a keystroke. People that currently have the mentalityI must have it in my handswill quickly see the light. All these years they have had their figment paper standard in the trillions in banks. What they will see is that it is much more important WHAT you have in a money system. Not the architecture of the system.

8:30 approaches. Drum rolls, please.

Bonds are now up a point. Any guesses as how the bonds will respond to the employment report? My guess-- From up a point to down a point.

Ted: Don't worry about Plunge Protection Team. Once a financial bubble has formed, organized buying support has never been able to prevent a market crash in the past. It won't work this time either. All it does is enable more trapped speculators out before the crash does occur.

To: Fellow GBs

Went to check CNBC just at the moment Paul Scofield was reciting Invictus:

In the fell clutch of circumstance,
I have not winced nor cried aloud;
Under the bludgeoning of chance
My head is bloody, but unbowed.

It matters not how strait the gate,
How charged with punishments the scroll,
I am the master of my fate;
I am the captain of my soul.

And to complete the symbolism, the ad was sponsored by Union Bank of Switzerland. ( Whose currency, incidentally, seems to have recovered its safe-haven status in the futures pit this morning.

Welcome ! You will be shown to have been a great seer !

NEKKEI Plunges Nearly 700 Points DOWN 4.2%

Massive currencies devaluations and stock market crashes! Absolute financial chaos reigns in South East Asia - This is spilling over into Japan, Australia, Europe and the US of A. What inevitably follows is A Financial Tsunami Looming in Land of Setting Sun. Japan will indeed be forced to dump US T-Bonds to defend the home economy, and subsequently buy gold as it fights for survival in its flight to safety - SEE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html

And the number is 4.7 % 284,000

Consenus est. is 203,000 jobs created and the 'real number' is 284,000 jobs---WATCH OUT!!

What is E gold and how does it work, does one own gold to participate?

S&P futures locked down a hard-limit. DJIA could open 200 to 300 points lower. Watch out from there.

*U.S. OCT. SERVICE SECTOR PAYROLLS ROSE 213,000
*U.S. SEPT. PAYROLLS REVISED TO UP 269,000 FROM UP 215,000
*U.S. OCT. OVERALL WORKWEEK UNCHANGED AT 34.5 HR
*U.S. BLS'S ABRAHAM SAYS OCT. JOB GAINS 'WIDESPREAD'
*U.S. MFG PAYROLLS UP 54,000; BIGGEST GAIN SINCE FEB. 1990
*U.S. OCT. PAYROLLS EXCEED AVERAGE FORECAST OF UP 180,000
*U.S. OCT. AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS UP $0.06 TO $12.41
*U.S. OCT. UNEMPLOYMENT FELL TO 4.7%; LOWEST IN 23 YEARS
*U.S. OCT. NONFARM PAYROLLS ROSE 284,000

Call your Representative and Senator and tell them: "NO MORE SELLING-OUT OF THE AMERICAN WORKER! FAST TRACK BE DAMNED!" Enough Indonesian bribes. Enough Red Chinese bribes.

According to the US Constitution, only the Senate can ratify treaties, not a President bought-off by foreign interests. Oh yes - and buy gold before it is too late. Also, has anyone seen the new US Postal Service "Whitewater Criminals" series of stamps by the way?

Well, maybe just maybe some money will start slopping over into the pm's.

Average hourly earnings up 6 cents in Oct...Job growth strongest in manUfacturing sector...Long Bond has lost all its earlier gains....As talkin head says:" this does not bode well for Wall Street"

Panda:

How low will the stocks have to go to get the bonds off the floor?

Watch the 'magic' 314.5 Dec gold today.

I scooped ya ( barely ) .....

As Homer would say, "DOOOH!" Treasuries don't look so safe now. After all, what happens if there is a 'surprise' rate increase over here in November??? :- )

Canadian Dollar is gettin hammered ( down over a half cent ) better run down ta the bank and deposit some of dem U.S. checks...EB:Great call...eh ( said with sh!t eating grin thingy )

stocks down, bonds falling and more evidence of inflation from rising wages... and GOLD IS STILL GOING DOWN!!! If metals can't stage a rally on this kind of news, then what will it take? It's time to sell everything and start a soup kitchen. Mister, can you spare a dime?

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you: EB, LGB, The Witchitaw Lineman, Heavy Hitter, Skeptic, Dow Bug. Music please ...

D.A. _ I'll have to go and consult the mass 'psycho-graph' know as the Dow chart. :- ) )

Prozac anyone?

Remember, good news is now good news! A few years ago, bad news was good news. SOOOOOOO, sell gold and buy, Uncle Sugars paper.... He promises to repay with paper! Honest! :- ) )

D-MARK DEC97 .5884A +70
SWISS FR DEC97 .7245 +136

That was a great one, whatever it means! sounded like a cross between existential economics and stream of conscousness political peotry. Ah, the French ...

All the Plunge Protection Team can do now is hammer gold & precious metals. Kind of like Hitler ordering the Berlin subways flooded at the end. The message they are trying to implant in people's minds is "there is no safe escape save US Treasury notes..."

Currency question? The trend lately is for the dollar to grow stronger against the Yen but weaker against the European currencies excepting the British Pound. It would seem that the trend in the Yen should be in the opposite direction. If they are forced to liquidate U.S. bonds and securities because of their internal problems, then dumping dollars should result in a weaker dollar vs the Yen. In Europe recession/high unemployment and uncertainty about the Euro should increase the safe haven status of the dollar. The trend, however, is towards a weaker dollar. Can anyone clarify the situation for me?

Right on, Spuds ! Where ARE those weasels all of a sudden?

How much longer till Kitco shuts down??

US T-Bills - The biggest scam of this Century. The Roaring Billions pouring in from the World everyday in "flight to quality" are just increasing American People's debt and eventually they are to be sacrifical lambs, How many people know that the US Fed Reserve is the only institution that is NOT Audited by any Accounting body ( public or Private ) . May the Sunshine lift the mist from peoples eyes. Look at all the evidence in the decline of Egyptian, Greek, Roman, Mayan et all.

We are all but pawns, The Leaders are sold out.
Vince Foster was bumped off to protect Hill/Bill, Vince collected 500,000 Airmiles darting in & out of Geneva prior to "suicide", Black/Chrome gun switch by FBI.

Buy Gold, Screw the Charts. The price is being held back in LOndon /NY everyday

speed -- Gold is an end game play. The paper tree has to be shaken severely for the MF holders to bail out. Remember, they're in it for the 'long haul'. :- ) )

Also, 'they' have to prove gold is worthless in times like these, else the bondos are in BIG trouble. Full faith and credit stuff, ya know. :- )

Reify, I have not received any E-Mail from you. Thought you were gone. I am off to town will write you later.

Bill

Their M.O.- They'll let Kitco stay open until the PMs start to rise.

The Producers are on it to keep it low, ASK WHY
The Signal to Move has not come, yet

Panda: I hope I have the patience to wait for the end-game. Patience is scarcer than platinum in boomers. : ) BBML

Arden lad, what were the COMEX/NYMEX gold wharehouse drawdown figures for yesterday??

Never thought you were the 'nana-nana-na-na' type.

RD will not go bankrupt.RD will not cut or eliminate its dividend.Rd will be cheaper to buy.I will buy more RD and in the LONG-run will leave you die-hard gold bugs in the dust as I have for over 15 years.Enjoy the "good times" while they last!

London is down 2.7%..... Forty minutes till the New York open. What kind of 'magic' do you think we'll see there? It is Friday after all....

The Charts will foretell Nothing, Use instinct

This site is fantastic - I enjoy the wisdom and wit - too bad I CAN't HEED THE WISDOM - for some reason I have to own gold stocks - weep weep weep - RYO and DROOY - weep weep -

Please forgive the dumb question but could someone interpret the unemployment report??

Yahoo has a news blurb EU concerned over US sanctions. GET READY to see the USA get an international punch in the face. Actually, a 15 round heavyweight titles worth.

Other countries are sick and tired of the territorial rights series of issues that have bothered them for some time. The USA will get a lesson on whose country is whose. The power of the USA will be diminished as the financial debacle grows. The self-righteous attitudes in Washington are not taken lightly in other parts of the world. US law is good in the US and the message here is your territory does not extend into our country pal, so take your laws, beliefs and go home.

You may not be aware of it but the IRS has on the books, regulations that follow you for 10 years after you move to another country. These regulations also state that US law takes precedent and not the laws of the country you are in. The IRS and the US government will get a lesson in possession is the law.

Money that wishes to be saved the torment of the US government will seek safety in other financial harbors, the dockmasters in other countries will be more than happy to protect their new found customers.

Once this is seen the general citizenry in the US will have second thoughts about having the government and it's henchmen giving them a financial eye, ear and throat exam so as to extract every penny they can to pay for their bankrupt financial system and policies.

One major death that will occur will be the sweeping environmental laws, treaties and directives. The US will pontificate, the rest of the world will turn a deaf ear, and mutter, oh yeah, easy for you to say, you already have the good life. The US is not now, and will be in a much weaker position to say anything to China for one.

The USA is a young country. Make the right decisions and this and many other things will not be seen as gloom and doom, but the time when We the People grew up and took back that which is rightfully ours. The good old US of A and control of her.

The Central Bank of Pitcairn Island just announced they will sell all their gold.

If we get two breakers before noon it'd be time to take a long walk just to enjoy the day. Enough nasty news will be tallied by day's end.

Soros told Koppel/ABC "First it was a Game, then Tool and now a bit of Both". Go figure

Bob A.: http://www.e-gold.com

It is the soundest system of money on the planet. It is your money, 100% backed by gold or the metal of your choice. Go to the web site and your questions will be answered.

Anything not there, email Mr. E-gold right off of the site.

Flee from Saddam's terror into US T-Bills, We will not say what we do with Trillions to Nobody but believe us, Tis the Time

The Hallsville, Texas, National Federal Fidelity Mutual Trust Bank has announced that "gold is a worthless, non-performing asset. We have accordingly placed our entire reserves of 1.2 ounces for sale. We're going into all those lucrative Treasury Bills the Japanese are dumping."

Eudoxus ( gold price ) "there is no safe escape save US Treasury notes..." They are definitely trying to protect the Bonds. They cant let the rates go up on all of those short term bonds that the US has been selling to Japan for the last 5 years. The question is, will AG be happy with the market drop and deflationary movement around the world enough not to raise rates in the face of the lowest unemployment
rate since 1973. By the way there is that 1973 year comparison again?

Surprise surprise....the urge ta kayak is gettin stronger---a beautiful day on the North Atlantic!!!

Just heard a "talking head" named Donnelly on CBS radio ( 880 am in NYC ) say inflation cannot be contained, citing pilots at some airline recently getting a 20% raise.

I'm with you- screw the charts. The smart money is BUYING gold.

Japs wanna Dump TB's, but not allowed to by Policies in place

"I love the smell of inflation in the morning..."

Almighty, this is PBS Street Gang, over...

Everyone's on the edge of their chairs.

Speed
I for one will be in a rush for the door, to sell my puts at the bottom.
I would hate to leave it to late, and not be paid.

Equity Index Products Daily Price Limits
http://www.cme.com/market/riskman/pricelmt.html

Looks like 314.5 would have been pure magic. Bombs awayyyyyyyyy!

Hi Ted! I have a few minutes before I go do my real job! You may as well go kayaking as gold is going south again. Maybe by the time you return, there will be an explaination......for the low gold price, not the nice conditions of the N Atlantic!!! :- ) )

Crystal Ball....I agree -- the smart money is in gold. And that's my story and I'm sticking to it!

AG save the world, by destroying it. Soros/ABC Nightine said "You have to destroy to create"

I hope they hammer gold, the lower gold goes the faster we can get through this mess. The more they put on the market the more that will be bought.

The CB's WILL NOT SELL ALL THEIR GOLD. The young mangers will be discharged. The new paradigm and the rest of this new techno garbage will get a spanking.

If you really want to see an industry go poof, watch the short term death of the hitech community. Yes, in the long run they will come back. In the short run the Microsoft-RCA story will be played out.

A maybe prediciton. What if.............I have always said the British controlled international banking. How about the pound taking it's place as THE new leader as the paper asset to have. The British are not stupid and even though their occupation of large parts of the globe has withered, a strong and powerful monetary unit can do what guns and bullets cannot.

Let's face it. Huge ammounts of gold are moving through the LBMA.

I wouldn't be to concerned about the drop in gold price here. Its obviously the first thing the 'big guys' will hammer in New York in order to keep people's attention focused on paper. Of course the drop happened right at the open of the NY market. With the USD in downward move in relation to Europe we are seeing an obvious premeditated market control effort here.

Look at it this way: they are acknowledging the role of gold every time they move against it in a situation like this. With this next drop we will see capital flight to Europe increase significantly - out of both equities and bonds. There is a growing discrepancy between the "spot market" price and the actual physical demand for gold. This will blow wide open sooner than later and we will have a surge in price as the spot market finally follows the leadership of investor demand. COMEX warehouse stocks are moving rapidly, just someone dumping into the warehouse to match the rate of withdrawl. Wonder who that could be. Can you spell U-S-T-R-E-A-S-U-R-Y.

Look at them blast gold, silver, and ... . Just think we can paint our houses with gold paint ... real gold. Be the first on your blodk to have a solid gold cadillac.

INTC, DELL, AMAT, CSCO all bid down a couple of bucks prior to opening.
Depth quotes at quote.com show how much.

Well, if this is a paper game ( and it is ) , I'm going out and try to lock in some real low prices for the REAL stuff. Drive that sucker down EB, I'll be waiting at the coin shop!

Allen -- In Europe and Asia, they still believe in gold. Why? Because they know better....

Thank You

They have reduced everything to figures, Boomers dont let them shrink

Secretary of Transportation just anounced: "The Washington outerbelt, do to the high price and shortage of blacktop, will be resurfaced with gold from a Texas bank."

Let's not forget one thing here. The speculative shorts love to short any rise in the yellow metal. I suspect that is what we are seeing here. This could be a spike down, and nothing more. This would be a perfect time for gold to rise. So, sell it in to the ground, would be the thinking. Wishful thinking on my part, but! If the physical demand materializes, can you say OUCH!

...be the first one on the block to have your son/daughter come back from Bosnia in a gold box ... No more dying in foreign lands for the political greed & ambition of conmen & conwomen from Arkansas ( an otherwise nice state ) .

After the U.N. told the U.S. NOT to fly the U-2 mission over Iraq, Iraq has renewed its' threat to shoot down any U-2 flights over Iraq.

Keep driving gold down boys! Funny how, "Trading Places", was on last night. :- ) )

The Big Money collected from the 'Masses' will go where it is TOLD TO GO.
But March on golden children, We gotta WIN Sometime, things cant be that UNFAIR.

Heard that somebody is ready to Barter 1 Ton for Maddon's Lingerie accoring to National Enquirer.

love that movie panda

Panda, Saddam works for CIA, They didnt touch him bit killed 150,000 fleeing soldiers with white flags and set Kuwait oil on fire

Has anyone experienced delays getting their orders of gold from Blanchard? I'm getting a little irritated with their 2 weeks+ late delivery now. Bart, can Kitco do a better job?

Well dipsters, come on out! We're having another sale today! :- )

FTSE 100 4751.00 -112.80 at 14:06 on 07 Nov 97
Out of 100 shares: 1 is up, 1 is square and 98 down.

Horace - I will repost.

Date: Thu Nov 06 1997 20:56
arden ( ardengold@msn.com ) ID#201238:


Comex warehouse gold stocks sharply unchanged at 594,853 oz.

Comex warehouse silver stocks FELL SHARPLY by 2,183,645 oz to 131,676,950 oz, the lowest level in over twelve years.

Sorry to be late folks, I was out adding to my company's gold reserves - soon we may have more than Comex

To: A Goose@Pond.central

Gold/Silver -- Platinium/Palladium
Two "balanced" reversals, from G/S up, P/P down, to G/S down, P/P up...

Somebody is coming unraveled I think!
A tip of the hat to Michael Metz?

SPUD: Try Kitco, Jefferson -800-593-2585 - or e-gold

Just culled from the net: CPP - The only remaining ( semi-autonomous ) French possesion left in North America ( if we don't count Bart's hometown - Quebec ) the islands of St. Pierre and Miquelon have just anounced that they are jumping on the international bandwagon are are preparing to sell their gold hoard on the world markets. Their hoard will be sold immediately, "so as to maximise our return for our citizens before god falls below $300.", according to the local burgomeister, Mr. Pierre Robespierre who apparently is a direct descendant of a French National hero of the 18th century who helped solve France's looming overpopulation problem by using internal vs. external methods. When asked for estimates of how much bullion the remote fishing outposts, ( the islands, unfortunately, for all concerned, are 'stuck' between the Canadian islands of Cape Breton and Newfoundland ) , were preparing to dump into the already flooded world markets, Mr. Robespierre replied, "Bye 'gar we sell all ma fren. 'Ar 'oard was made durin' za teem o za beeg var. We gahzar evar tiny bitty bit un til we 'ave all to getzar 1 kilo an 9.5 onzes. Tell zose canadieenes zat zay cannut be al za teem ovar lookin' ma people's on zees fine islands." When asked about what his community would do in case of hardship or emergency im the future Mr. Robespierre stated that the community had decided that since the original hoard was built up in case of nazi invasion in WW2, and they no longer felt that that was a threat, they deemed the hoard 'souplerfious' to there needs.

They are smashing the high tech to pieces.
Plus everthing else.
PANIC

Dow down 86 points on 11.6 million shares in the opening four minutes?

Dow numbers were on only 17 stocks out of thirty that could trade.

Nasdaq down 35 in opening minutes....looks like another meltdown...
That means we should lose the Kitco site in *looking at my watch*
eighteen, seventeen, sixteen....

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets?u

Dow down 151.77 points.

Asia is buying, NY is destroying, THEY who control 80%+ world Reserves contol the price, Monopoly in Free Markets ? What a paradox

2168 decliners
176 advancers
TICK = -1331
Down Volume = 44.98 million
Up volume = 1.3 million

Radio is very quiet on the market open...........

To: All Who Wait

You will all be relieved to know that Maria B., from the floor of the NYSE, assures us that "money is still flowing in, their are no 'heavy sellers' ( what does the sellers weight have to do with it? ) and everything is OK.
Well that's a relief.

Jimmy Rogers giving everybody a piece of his mind on Puppet Vision...CNBC LEMMING CENTRAL...One comment..."When did anybody decide it's the Fed's job to take care of...protect the market?"

If you would like to buy a metal stock at bargain plus prices I sugest you take a look at OROP in Canada. This is an excellent stock waiting to move on the up side. Solid stock. Partners with PAA 50-50 in a major project.

Read about it. I think you will like what you find.

Congrats on your "RYURX" purchase, I bought a little too so thanks!

When some mining companies sell forward to a large degree, it drags the
price of gold back down. I sold some of my mining stocks I checked on
that werte doing this, and have found more I am selling today.
Many people do not realize this is one of the reasons gold keeps
getting knocked back down on each rally. I've had enough.

Look at that volume in the gold pit. Going to be a busy day. Be interesting how the stocks will finish the day, I suppose that the could get drained on a really busy day?

December gold down $4.30; gold shares plunging with market. This looks like the beginning of that selling climax I have been talking about. A once in a lifetime buying opportunity coming up for those with dry powder. I would like to see several consecutive down days on HUGE volume followed by a massive reversal. Once the bottom is in this will be like buying the Dow at 800 back in 1982.

I'm sure many of you have heard about some US. stock market strategists telling their clients to hold tight because Asia's problems are good for American financial markets. Aside from being extremely short cited this kind of attitude is bound to seriously worsen our relations with many Asian states, tigers and other wise. How would we react if our stock market had plunged and Japanese commentators were saying that America's problems are good for Japan? To ask the question is to answer it.

Just got some VIX numbers; VIX = 36.87

Lots of stocks with delayed openings......

Gold ( down 4.0 ) and XAU ( down 2.63 ) are gettin hammered more than paper ( Dow now only down 1-0-3....DOOOOOOOOH

Who will win ? The Slaves or the Master.

What if......great advertising campaign - Bloomies in NY said no Santa this year.....the people go wild.....Now Bloomies says..."We ARE going to have Santa this year."

Gold means nothing, a relic........oh....you really want gold. Okay, but the price is now $3000oz....no...no.....I'm sorry, I made a slight error. That's $10,000.00oz

I wonder at what price per ounce the USA would go flat on its debt.

Treasury market gains are almost al gone!

Deja Vu All Over Again?! From 1929 to 1932 RCA lost 97% of its market value. Recall RCA was the #1 High-Flying Tech stock of the 1920s.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/rca_msft.html

BBL

Here's an article in the Washington Post about the latest gun-control law activity "down under":

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-11/07/107l-110797-idx.html

Tolerant1:

The job of protection has come because the market, along with just about everything else in the system, is 'too big to fail'. The only method for saving all markets is the universal elixer. More cash and credit. Last weeks dose was another 8 billion in M3.

The thing to not lose sight of in all this is as long as money supply expands at a rate faster than the creation of assets, the prices of assets will rise. Money, never is created or destroyed due to asset price changes. The exchange of money for an asset, just reshuffles to deck so to speak. The new owner gets the asset, the old owner gets the money. No money lost or created. The big trick is to figure out which bunch of assets are going to go up on price the most as a result of increasing money. If stocks and bonds are not going to do well, some other asset prices will rise to pick up the slack.

Should we hold goldstocks or Sell ? That is the question, comments anyone

They are crushing us, always more shrewd than anybody

"A child of five could understand this.
Fetch me a child of five."
--Groucho Marx

D.A.: Point well taken, however that does not abrogate Mr. Roger's comment in the real world. Eventually that is where we will all live.

Good morning,all.

Midas: In response to your question, I hate paying too much for anything.
Right now most stocks are expensive except for the gold stocks. I
say hang in there with the gold/mining/precious metals stocks as
they will eventually turn around. The only question is when......

Buy in NY and sell in Asia, If I had done that since sometime, I could have been Rich

The "flight to quality" into the U.S. induced such a tremendous
rise in the US$ that those currencies pegged to the greenback
came under pressure. The underlying assets in Asia and South
America became overvalued. They are not worth as much as
implied by the present value of the US$. It is important to
understand that the flight from the Euro into the US$ is the first
and main reason for the present currency crisis in Asia:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/orpailleur1103.html

I read with disgust the horror of a maniac in Australia. God rest their souls.

Taking guns away from law abiding citizens means nothing other than not being able to protect ones self. If she had a gun the lady may have been able to save herself and her children.

Mr. H in Iraq has the ability to murder many more than he has already. I assure you that me and a team of 11 others would end his reign of terror. Life is not worth living with the threat of maniacs like that. Ergo it is better to die in an attempt to set things right than it is to do nothing.

Evil can only prevail, when good men do nothing.

SPUD: In response to 09:29 post - YES. Called today since my orders are 6 weeks late. Threatened to stop bullion/numismatic ( new ) orders if no definite ship date given today.

BART: Kitco ? Want a new customer - what's the policy on delivery dates ?

To George Cole et al

I;ve had to sell a lot of my canadian gold shares for tax reasons.

What I found suprising was that only two exceptions my shares were taken right up and in some cases closed up!! I don't think retail buyers were doing this; it was either company insiders or someone else that was glad to provide me with liquidity.

Let the flight to quality begin... I'm ready... OK, go ahead, start now...

World markets crash, Mid East threat, World currency crises, US $ printing presses working 24 hours a day, US buys their bonds if they buy US bonds, etc. etc.
THIS IS REALLY AMAZING - THE CONTROL EXHIBITED IS AWESOME
Bonds up, interest rates down, US markets stable, everyone working, retailers optimistic, deflation and inflation neutralizing each other, U2 flight no U2 flight, Fast Track, on the way, the President will not be impeached, etc. etc.
SO WHY DO THEY HAVE TO HAMMER GOLD?
To late to sell Gold, should buy at these prices?
Sell equities. BUY LOW SELL HIGH - This is the way it is suppose to go. However, chessecake and bananas are still doing better than Gold.
"Feds are buying coupons, adding to reserves"

Heavy Hitter it looks like a kitco regular Old Man, is betting up on you.

kldsajkf, Kindly explain your Post or anyone who can understand what he means

kldsajkf, Kindly explain your Post or anyone who can understand what he means

Silver, Platinum & Pall are all up, except Gold, Why Oh Why

Friday November 7 9:46 AM EST

NY precious metals slide early, led by gold

NEW YORK, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures slid sharply early Friday on fund selling, partly prompted by a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Greenspan, following selling of gold in European bullion markets earlier in the day and heavy gold lending by European central banks, traders said.

``Greenspan's suggested inflation in the U.S. was about one percent overstated which was negative for gold, but there is still concern about the Swiss plan to sell up to 1400 tonnes of gold, if referendum approval is granted, and in the meantime the Swiss National Bank has started lending gold heavily,'' one senior New York bullion bank dealer said.

The slide in gold prices came despite an expected tumble in U.S. stocks on the opening, following renewed weakness in Asian stockmarkets overnight.

COMEX December gold was down $3.60 an ounce at $309.60 after the first hour of trade, but held just above the contract low at $308.00 seen on October 24, when the latest version of the Swiss gold sales plan was announced.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted around $308.80/30 an ounce, compared to the London Friday morning fix at $313.25, and the New York close Thursday around $312.20/70.

Midas: I think he was trying to say that he willingly sold some gold stocks and that someone else willingly bought it. He may have been implying that he was surprised that someone bought it....I guess....Um.....Was that your point kldsajkf???

If Hong Kong gold closed up on short covering I suspect it is because some of the Asian banks are trying to book some profits to prevent failure

Time for a little sanity and the tranquility that the ocean provides---Hi Scotty! BBL kiddies~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

EB - I took a look at the daily Dec. Gold chart as you requested last night. The line of descent connecting all the tops since the beginning of Oct. looks very ominous and suggests that RJ's previous $280. prediction is now becoming a possibility ( much as I hate to admit it ) . Most here will remember that after the July ( Aussi-induced ) melt-down I had a minor discussion with George Cole as to whether we would then form a base or whether the 'second shoe' would drop. Well, after a false breakout into the upper $330's we have, since Oct 9th, been in a sharp downtrend. The 'second shoe' dropped on or about Oct.23/24 when support in the $320/22 was decisively broken. For short term commodity traders I suppose a good time to buy would be when the market closes two days in a row above this downtrend line.

Why does the Kitco site sell Krands at discount compared to Maples/Eagles ? As an investor, do I care what .999 I purchase ???

Tolerant1: I can understand the arm twisting that has resulted in Japans buying of US debt but I still don't understand why they would buy gold--the exact opposite in some views. I have been here long enough to know all the various reasons for buying gold. What I don't understand is why the Japanese would suddenly agree with them. Their success since WW11 has not provided a base for such a view.

With regard to gun carrying there is another problem that appears. It may be true that it is a good thing to arm yourself in many part of the US but that is not a universal condition. In Toronto there are about 40 citizens licensed to carry guns and the rest are cops and robbers. The number of people murdered in the city is about 60 -70 a year. Most are criminals or spouses. The history and culture of the US have brought it to its current situation but it is misleading to think that what is true there is valid for the rest of the world.

Brazil down 609 ( 6.45% )

D.A. & Tolerant1: Tolerant1, great post! Your insight is exactly on the mark, I would add the following details to the discussion.
-Bryce-
...as money supply expands at a rate faster than the creation of DOMESTIC assets PLUS IMPORTS, the prices of assets will rise. Money,never is created or destroyed due to asset price changes. ASSET PRICE CHANGES ARE A RESULT OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE OVERALL MONEY SUPPLY. The exchange of money for an asset, just reshuffles to deck so to speak. The new owner gets the asset, the old owner gets the money. No money lost or created. THE MONEY SUPPLY INCREASES WHEN DEBT IS CREATED AND THE MONEY SUPPLY SHRINKS WHEN DEBT IS LIQUIDATED THROUGH EITHER PAYMENT OF THE DEBT OR BY DEFAULT...The big trick is to figure out which bunch of assets are going to INFLATE. THE RISE IN THE STOCK MARKET OVER THE PAST DECADE IS A REFLECTION OF INFLATION MIGRATING TO FINANCIAL ASSETS... go up on price the most as a result of increasing money. If stocks and bonds are not going to do well, some other asset prices will rise to pick up the slack.
THE ONE CAVIAT IN THE MARKETS IS THAT IF FINANCIAL FRACTURES CREATE MASS BANKRUPTSIES, DEBT WILL BE LIQUIDATED THROUGH DEFAULT AND THUS THE MONEY SUPPLY WILL SHRINK CAUSING DEFLATION ACROSS THE BOARD, GOLD INCLUDED. WHILE GOLD MAY DECLINE IN ABSOLUTE DOLLAR TERMS, PURCHASING POWER WILL INCREASE BECAUSE THE PRICE OF THINGS WILL DECLINE WHILE THE RELATIVE PRICE OF LIQUID MONEY WILL INCREASE.

With spot @$308.8 and DJIA @7597 the GOLD/DOW ratio is 24.6. I suspect this is the highest ratio in more than 25 years.

Robert: The highest was 26.2 on August 6th

Midas my point was that companies usually like to sell shares to the public. Insiders issue themselves options and sell the shares. This time someone bought. Who and why?

I sold over 50,000 shares of a 60 c company that had had about 3000 shares a day of volume. I the bid DID NOT BUDGE dispite my selling!

the shares this mourning are up!!

to the point; unless gold is going to stay down, I think alot of canadian shares have bottomed.

Such a busy morning at Kitco. My, my. What is happening in these here markets. This Weasel wants to know...oh yeah...gold is tanking. What's that George? Oh sorry, Gold is Capitulating. Gold Bug Alert Gold is a buy with both hands!! Right now!! Buck the trend...NOW!!! Before it's too late!!

C'mon!! This IS getting as tired as I am getting trying to make my fellow gold bugs some "Dry Powder" for the REAL bull. You can lead a horse to water...

now for housekeeping...

Colleen - Thank you much for the kind mail. Your input from this group is a beauuutiful breath of fresh air. It was getting a bit stuffy in here. Thanks for opening a window. I will await the files. My computer is a beast and I can handle it all. Nick or JTF...how are the files? too big??

Spud - I am here. Sorry I was late to Kitco this a.m. I was busy at the bank ;- ) Your posts are well written ( far better than most here ) and I would like to continue good dialogue with you. I am your friend and I am just a man working hard for what I have. You are obviously a well bred Spud and I know you are just kidding about putting me in the class of cabals and weasels. I await you market insight and poetry/prose. Thanks.

Crystal Ball - What is YOUR problem??!?? I have NO beef with you or anyone here. I do not desrve to be called a weasel. Name calling is NOT necessary and will not be responded to. I thank you for your apology in advance.

D.A. - you missed those puts by a small amount. Did you guys get back in?? APH held on and is now reaping the rewards. I would watch closely today so your profits don't get 'bought up'.

Eldo - What was so magic about 314.5?? Was it that it disappeared sooo fast?? ;- ) Todays/last nights move was simply a classic pennant breakout, that's all... Did you get on board?

Ted - Thank you sir. I call it like I see it ;- ) . This does NOT, however, make up for the beating you will take tonight...less than 12 hours...

AWAY!!!!!
$

gee...let's recap. ( eb talking to himself ) you said to buy the dips on the Mark and Swiss because that is a better 'flight to quality' ( eh Crystal ball? ) than gold right now and you gave everyone a gold bug alert two days ago because of a classic chart pattern recognition and they are now sitting dumbfounded staring at their computer screens wondering why gold is not going up like they want it to... don't worry about it EB... go golfing you will feel better...you're right eb...should i surf first...yeah catch a wave and commune with mother nature...she makes more sense...


ps. much of what i say is with my tongue shoved deeply into my cheek. i love this kitco and i truly enjoy reading ALL posts. i learn so much here and there is much more to learn. thanking all posters......

ted - double or nothing?? huh? well? rock & roll...

I forgot to mention the most obviously bullish scenario ( chart-wise ) would be for a double bottom to be put in place by Dec. Gold right now at about the $308. area. If this holds we may then spike upwards to fill the small gap in the $321/22.5 area.

W.G. - Remind me again. Are Kruggerands 99.999?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/07/z0009_46.html

WetGold - Thanks for the Blanchard confirmation of lousy delivery performance. Blanchard, if you boys read this board, you'd be wise to get your act together.

Tolerant1: "Because of an excess of virtue, the forces of Hell prevailed" I think that just about sums up the American public vs. Clinton Administration.

Saddam Hussien - sure, he's a ruthless, cold-blooded murder. In comparision to our American "leaders", he merely needs a few pointers on where to ditch the bodies. Perhaps we should export US Park Service Civil War parks?

The mentality of the community of financial investors has
changed according to the shift in capital flows.
One-third of U.S. debt has a maturity of less than a
year. This will further increase volatility. This short-sighted
policy was initiated by Clinton, and picked up by all the
other Central Banks. A rise in interest rates will explode
public debt by next year in the US. The Central Banks' job
of regulating the currencies has been stolen by their
treasuries - that is to say the politicians who are more
interested in short-term "esthetic interventions" than in
long-term stability ( shifting the public debt from 7%
long-term yields to 5% short-term ) .

Mooney* While you were away I made the guess that gold would bottom at $250 based on the 1996 average cost of 275. This year the best guess average cost is $317 so I'm still betting on below $300. As you know a meteoric rise from the bottom --or from here--is in the interest of all Flag-wavers at this point.

jfklas;j, I hope you are Right, Brother.

Mooney: It's my understanding that the Krand weights slightly more than 1 ( troy ) since an alloy is added for hardness. I believe it is actually 0.9995. Will do more research to avoid correlating bricks and clouds ...

Selby: Fist off, I applaud your constant questions and input. It adds a prodcutive series of notes into this rigid opinion orchestra that is Kitco, so that each of us may inspect the tunes we each create before we play them for the audience.

Japan knows gold is the only real money. Their economy is imploding for many reasons. One monster chunk is the enormous US debt they hold. It is clear to Japan that gold is a far better asset.

Short term political gain, see post below, does not financial stability make.

My point is irrespective of where one lives, it is prudent on one's part to be able to take care of one's self. The world we live in is civilized only in music, books and on the big screen. And if you listen and look closely, violence is a large percentage of those.

The KRand is around .90 to .925 % ( forget the exact ) gold, with other
alloy making up the remainder, usually copper. The gold US coins
are the same. The Maple Leaf is 99.999 fine ( pure ) gold. The
KRand contains 1OZ, put is not 99.999 fine.

All - based on the weakness in gold shares in general, and perceived distribution in DROOY, I decided last night to reduce my position in gold shares, mainly DROOY. I managed to hold this resolve overnight, and exited about 30% of my gold shares this morning. You all should take this as a very bullish sign!!

Donald...thanks for the correction. BTW, what were the figures on Aug. 6th?

Selby: Nice typo eh. Sorry. No Freudian slip I assure you. TO ALL: The Clinton press conference was interesting to say the least. He gave his pep talks and then received 5 questions.

SCORECARD - IRAQ -4

FAST TRACK - 1

On my left, Kitco 24 Hr chart, I see a steep drop engineered in NY
Are we forever destined to be short changed by them. I am sure they are laughing right now.

http://www.bullion.org.za/kruger.htm#specs

Rather than typing Krand data - visit site...

May the Afternoon usher in good news for us all, Amen

EB
You sound like the contented farmer going off to work.

As for the files about 25mb all up.
Neccesary to spit the files up, so your email can handle them.

Did you get on the gravy train to Dow 5000?
Last chance to board this afternoon.
TOOT TOOT!!!!

Looks like a crcuit breaker for lunch, on? Free falling DOW and S&P. NASDAQ a bit wierd but down. Looks like good resistance in gold at $308.50 Unfortunately this is getting to look like a grade C movie plot. When the dust clears and the congressional investigations start I want a front row seat.

Amex up/down vol 19:1 - adv/dec 4.5:1
NYSE up/down vol 8.4:1 - adv/dec 5.5:1
Nasdaq up/down vol 3.3:1 - adv/dec 2.5:1

These figures are already stale.
There should be more capitulation at the close.

W.G. - Checked the site and it confirms for me what I had in the back of my mind and that was that Krugg's are not pure. Although they seem to have one full oz. of 99.99 gold IN THEM, they are not of themselves pure gold as they are mixed with an alloy. This WOULD account for the difference ( discount ) in price that you were inquiring about. Your ever faithful servant. Mooney*

If the Japanese exit from T-Bills, where would they go ? any ideas...?

I don't think Maria B. on puppet network has any panties on. She keeps wiggling and fidgeting. Looks like the polyester is bothering her.

Robert: 8259 Dow and 315.25 for spot. Ratio 26.198

Allan
You may wish to secure funds safely before buying your ringside seat.
( :o}}}}}}}}}}}

Each Krugerrand contains an exact amount of pure gold, added to which is a small amount of copper to provide durability. Thus the coins are made of 22 carat alloy and their mass is a little more than that of the fine gold contained as indicated on the reverse.

Specs:

Gold content: 1 oz;

Mass: 33.930 g;

Standard fineness: 11/12 Au; 1/12 Cu

The South African Krugerrand was first mass-produced in 1970. Since then more than 46,3 million ounces ( 1440 tons ) or 54,5 million coins of all four sizes have been sold world-wide, making it the most successful in the history of gold bullion coins. In 1978 sales reached a peak of more than 6 million ounces.

STP - My apologies to you as I had missed your post before doing mine. It must have been while I was outside doing the winter oil change on my car. :- ) !

We are battened down and secure, captain. Let it come. We'll get through this one. Then its on to Paradise Island.

Avid chatter
This action does not feel good to me at all. i think we could get silly on the downside today. barn animals are all jittery again.....

just heard from my broker that they increased margin 10 fold on oex spreads. sign of the times I guess.

Temples bear scenariooooooooooo
http://www.concentric.net/~sellnow/sp60min4.gif

Allen, US citizen is more concerned with Nanny or OJ Trial than the shenanigans at the Highest Level, Fed through the Tube ( i.e. Tube ) on a respirator relying on voodoo medicene. The Pulpit is dead, Marilyn Manson is in. NY Schools ( and elsewhere ) distribute literature about
Sodomy to 9 yr olds while the name of the Creator is banned.

Midas, where would Japanese go if they exit from T-Bills?
They would take money and go home to deal with their own problems!!

As I already posted here few days ago, starting from September, Dow and Gold price have positive correlation. I have re-calculated it up to yesterday, correlation coefficient for period Sep. 1 - Nov 6 is +0,78. We have the same picture today. I can post a chart, if anyone is interested.

New Kid may be naive, but he's trying to fight against being the "last fool" in the market. I'm sticking with my positions in gold funds and junior mining stocks!

( If I go under twice, someone please toss me a life jacket before I go down for the count! )

1 Oz is one Oz. I think the problem is lingering effect from the embargo as well as a discount to refine to .9999 possibly. If you are willing to own junk pre-65 silver coin this Krand shouldn't bother. I like the Maple Leafs myself. But, if you don't have'em now you may not get'em later, ya kno'.

As you can see Blanchard is in deep doo-doo if they can't find coin in a week for our friends here. I consider this a partial breaking of verbal contract on their part which is very nasty business. If they strike a price with you you should see product at least within 10 business days ( typical for deep storage retrieval of industrial stuff ) . If they can't provide that time frame they should tell you so and offer you your money back. Bullion/Coin businesses are usually very strict if you back out on them or withhold payment on an order. Why not the othe way around. Time to black-ball that company, I'd say.

TO ALL

SILVER COMEX FOR NOV. 6: 131,676,950 --- 2,183,645 WHERE ARE YOU AREDEN??

I read the data and my eyes glaze over. The World Gold Council doesn't have a handle on this ..

IMF/BIS hold 1.11B oz gold plus possible 32.1M oz which is 30% IM reserves.
USA/Europe ( soon to be called the "snookered Union" ) holds 262M oz which is 65% of ?official reserves?
Japan only 24.2M oz
Soviets of old ??
OPEC Nations ( despite the oil/gold theories ) published reports of 42M oz.

http://www.gold.org/Pages/Wgmc1.htm

Mooney: thnx.

Japanese economy heading for crunch: analysts
TOKYO, Nov 7 ( AFP ) - Japan's economy is sliding towards a crisis
that will dwarf Southeast Asia's troubles and there are few escape
hatches, analysts said Friday as the stock market slumped 4.2
percent.

The East Asian economic crisis was "the sideshow before the real
event -- the main event is being prepared for you in Tokyo today,"
said Kenneth Courtis, analyst at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell.
The Tokyo market's 697.51-point dive to 15,836.36 took the
Nikkei index to its lowest close in two years and four months, and
represents an 18.2 percent tumble since the start of the year.
The slump has brought the capital adequacy levels of Japanese
banks -- which rely heavily on equities -- to below levels required
by the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, Courtis
said.
"This is the panic selling before the crisis forces the
government to abandon its Hooverite policies," said Courtis,
referring to the move by then US president Herbert Hoover to raise
taxes during economic recession, leading to the Great Depression in
1929.
The greenback rose to 123.82 yen in midafternoon trade from
123.28 yen in New York late Thursday. Foreign exchange dealers said
pessimism about Japan's economy deepened as the stock market fell.
Courtis said the economic slowdown in Asia was "the equivalent
of an oil price shock" for Japan.
He said 60 percent of Japanese growth was due to exports and 45
percent of those exports went to East Asia.
East Asia's economy was slowing and "exports will be crunched,"
he added.
"I think right how the government's strategy is just to cross
their fingers and hope the selling pressure dissipates," he said.
"It is a dire situation, they are in a policy bind."

I am interexted in seeing your chart. Thanks.

Fast Track pulled from floor of House 15 Dem. votes short. Republicans are on board all of the Kings men, Bush. Carter, Ford, etc. must be good for America.

Allan
The moves next week should be truly amazing.
Especially if Temples on the ball.

U.S. stocks sharply lower but pare early losses
NEW YORK, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stocks were sharply lower in late-morning trade Friday but had recouped a bit from an early swoon and were moving in a narrow range.

Bellwether chipmaker Intel Corp ( INTC ) was up three points at 76-1/2 as company officials met with analysts at a conference. Investors have been concerned about how the company will be affected by Asia's economic crisis.

The Dow was off 105 points at 7577. The Nasdaq was off 17 at 1606. The broader S&P 500 was down 13 to 925. The U.S. long bond was off 7/32 to yield 6.17 percent.

Asian turnaround from crisis will be quicker than expected: HSBC chief
MANILA, Nov 7 ( AFP ) - Asia's turnaround from its financial
crisis will happen faster than expected if governments undertake
necessary reforms, the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. ( HSBC )
Ltd. chief said Friday.
"I believe that the present despondent mood is exaggerated,"
HSBC chairman John Strickland told a business meeting in the
Philippines.
"There are reasons why the majority of these countries will turn
their economies around more quickly than people thought. However, a
number of adjustments will have to be made in those economies," he
added.

When theses big boys start saying two different things you know things are going to get really nasty.

Don't you think that a refreshing PLUNGE in ones assets would focus peoples attention quickly and cause a certain amount of concern as to WHO RIPPED ME OFF. This of course will cascade throughout the political structure into inquisitions, et al. When all is well people tend to be complacent an even negligent, but when bad times roll they will want blood. And what they want will be what they get.. as served up by their elected representatives and the media.

MoreGold:

This article is of interest from two points. First, if the Swiss bank is 'lending' heavily, there must be someone else 'borrowing' heavily. It certainly is not the mining industry. Borrowing gold to sell below your production costs is not a great business plan. Regardless of how low the financing costs are. From where is this great 'need' to borrow gold coming?

Greenspan's spouting that the inflation rate is 1% lower than reported serves a twofold purpose. First, it gives him cover to allow inflation to grow that much faster, because after all it we were measuring it wrong to begin with. This of course means there is no need to raise rates to combat inflation, because there isn't any. Second, no doubt we will soon see the old 'government lower the CPI fix' coming back to the fore. It's the best scam they've got for reducing entitlements, raising taxes, and pounding on the poor suckers that buy inflation adjusted bonds.

I am gonna Pray, If it doesnt pick up this Afternoon, Banks gonna call Monday. NY, you are fit for Fire and Brimstone

TO ALL: If you cannot find what you want I suggest:

LIKE I HAVE TO SAY IT...CALL KITCO!!! - 800-363-7053

800-593-2585 - Ask for Russ Savage - Jefferson Coin

800-909-6590 - Ask for Doug Jackson - e-gold


Like a barber shop....NEXT!

FOCUS-Greece says devaluation talk unfounded
ATHENS, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - Greece moved on Friday to quell
market rumours that a devaluation of the drachma was imminent in
the latest of a series of parries by the government against
foreign speculation.
Central Bank Governor Lucas Papademos told Reuters that the
rumours which had hit Asian markets on Friday were "totally
unfounded".
"The government and the central bank are committed to pursue
the strong drachma policy," he said.
Talk of devaluation was dismissed as "absolute rubbish" by a
senior finance ministry official on Wednesday.
The central bank also sold more than $1.3 billion to support
the drachma last week and drained interbank cash via money
market tenders set at 150 percent and 70 percent to stop
outflows.
Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis said on Monday that the
battle against speculators had been won, but Friday's market
rumours suggested that the problems are by no means over.

How can one buy Paper Gold in NY and sell in Asia ( i.e Overnite Market ) , Any wisdom will be appreciated

Southeast Asian currencies rebound as pressure shifts to North Asia


SINGAPORE, Nov 7 ( AFP ) - Southeast Asian currencies led by the
Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah closed strongly Friday as market
focus shifted to North Asia, where the South Korean won and Taiwan
dollar succumbed to relentless pressure.
"North Asia is looking terrible," said Tan Kee Wee, a currency
analyst with the United Overseas Bank, one of Singapore's biggest
banks, as the won closed lower at 979.90 to the US dollar after
breaching the psychological 980 level.
"As the haze goes away, the regional currencies are breathing
more easily," said a foreign exchange dealer with a European bank in
Singapore, referring to the easing regional air pollution from
forest fires in Indonesia.
But the financial skies were grim in North Asia.
The South Korean won fell despite the fact that the central bank
was selling dollars on the spot market to keep the won within 980.
Bearish sentiment on the economy and yen weakness exacerbated the
effects of strong demand for dollars.
Dealers said no one other than the central bank, which has sold
about 500 million US dollars daily in recent sessions, was trying to
sell dollars.
The Taiwan dollar slid in line with the won and closed at 30.952
to the dollar, from 30.70 the day before, dealers said in Taipei.

Prudential Puppet says Japan shouldn't be selling US paper. They should buy more, it's the best in the world. Aside from the obvious.

WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO BUY IT WITH???????????

Nick - you are right as rain on this. Japan is sunk regardless of today's US markets. A significant down day here will just be the precursor to all hell breaking loose in Japan and possibly Korea ( or visa versa ) on Monday. Then its bye-bye birdie!!! Heavy Hitter said as much that if the Nikkie went below 15000 than we were in a free fall situation. We are within a days worth of trading to breach that level. International selling ( and some internal institutional selling ) will will toast it big time. Then its our show from there on out. Death spiral ahoy, captain!

Indian rupee continues to slide against dollar
BOMBAY, Nov 7 ( AFP ) - The Indian rupee continued to fall against
the dollar here Friday and could dip further in the near future, a
dealer said.
Pradip Sharma, a dealer at the foreign exchange and travel house
Thomas Cook said the rupee, fell 0.2 percent Friday to 36.45 rupees
to a dollar.
Sharma said the rupee was "certain to drift even lower" Monday,
when the market reopens.
Other dealers said importers who had delayed buying dollars were
now rushing in to buy fearing the rupee would weaken sharply in line
with the volatile global markets.
The rupee-dollar rate remained stable at 35.70 to a dollar for
than a year until last month.
A media interview with Indian Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral
was interpreted as a signal that the rupee was about to be devalued,
leading to two weeks of falls which saw the dollar gain 2.5 percent
against the rupee.
The rate fell to 36.73 before a gradual recovery set in more
than a fortnight back after New Delhi said the RBI would intervene
in the market to ensure "orderly conditions."

Allen ( USA ) : Your 11:50: is that Paradise Island from "20,000 leagues under the Sea?" Great place to wait out a Tsunami - in a submarine in the depths of the ocean. When hurricane Hugo hit Charleston the Navy ships went out to sea the day before, and at least one nuclear sub decided to wait it out at dock -- on the bottom of the bay. Came up when the winds died away. My friends sailboat - an ocean going Yawl - was lifted nearly 10 feet up out of the Cooper river, spun several times and holed. My friend lived, but he was terrified. Thought he could protect his boat by mooring it several miles inland. Time to batten down the hatches. Bargains in gold stocks soon, I think.

Nick ( @Aussie ) US markets doing better than I thought - comments? Looks like Japan is about to collapse -- the ping on that one will be a lot bigger than the ping from the Hong Kong drop last week. Looks like lots of turbulence coming our way -- won't be much longer, I think. The US market may weather this fairly well -- perhaps not the expected crash -- but it won't be a pretty sight for the bulls.

Looks like we are having another of those "salutary events".

Death Squads Reported in Brazil
A Brazilian congressional human rights panel said today that
death squads are running loose in at least nine Brazilian
states, carrying out paid hits against politicians' and
businessmen's rivals and spreading fear in their wake. In its
monthly report on rights issues, the panel said the most violent
region was the southern state of Mato Grosso do Sul, where 87
people were murdered by hitmen in the first seven months of this
year. The panel said its investigations had found that many of
the death squad members were police officers. It said
landowners, businessmen and politicians were, ``as a rule'', the
brains behind them.

Smog Order Sparks Debate
A Malaysian government order barring scholars from talking to
the press about the ill effects of smog plaguing parts of
Southeast Asia has set off a heated debate about freedom of
speech. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's cabinet issued the
directive last month to state-run universities and institutes,
Education Ministry officials said. The circular instructs
professors, researchers and others working on the smog problem
to refrain from discussing their work directly with the press
and instead present their findings first to senior university
officials for review. The government says the order will prevent
inaccurate information from reaching the public and stave off
panic.

To: All Market Participants@Kitco

Re: New Trading Collars

Maria Bee, NYSE spokesperson, has just announced the implementation of newly designed Trading Collars: No heavy sellers.

We are attempting to provide the implied parameters of this new trading collar ASAP.
We suggest the following:
1. Charts of normal height/weight from AMA.
2. Deduct 15 pounds.
3. Although there are as yet no height limitations, we strongly suggest--as prudent risk management--you eight inches to the height ( whilst deducting 15 pounds the weight ) .
4. Example: male, height 510, normal weight 140 pounds would convert to height 66 and weight of 125 pounds.
5. The Exchange is confident that these new trading collars will ensure an orderly market that never goes down....too much.

tolerant1: Any Kitco names for bullion buys ?

brazil down 6.66%....this is really not good

Clinton vs Unions/Labor - politicians pulling out the stops to get fast track approved. Presidential faces from the past all smiling and waving hands together in support.

The Unions/Labor smell several rats, workers in US can't compete with foreign labor.

Round One - Friday - Clinton - No Mas. Labor - come back if you want some more.

Keep on the pressure Mr. Democrat President guy. Republicans - Side with Bubba will ya.

Unions/Labor rally behind independant in 2000 with millions of broke, pissed off Americans.

C'mon, they sold pet rocks people. It could happen.

If we all know that there is a good chance that Japan is on the brink of a major collapse and the implications are clear and more or less immenent

How come the price of gold doesn't reflect a flight to safety at this moment? Surely no one will wait till after the crash.

US Fed Chairman Greenspan calls on Europe to improve price data


FRANKFURT, Nov 7 ( AFP ) - US Federal Reserve board chairman Alan
Greenspan called on European governments on Friday to improve the
quality of their published price data in the run-up to a single
currency.
He said the Federal Reserve, as well as an independent US Senate
committee, had concluded that the US consumer price index "has
overstated changes in the cost of living by roughly one percentage
point per annum in recent years."
Many analysts say that current measures which overstate
inflation and understate productivity -- mainly by failing to figure
in bonuses from technology -- explain why stock market valuations
seem high in the United States when in fact they are reasonable.
"Most European countries still have yet to adopt the most
up-to-date techniques for measuring computer prices in their
national accounts," said Greenspan, who stood in front of a large
pipe organ in an immense baroque-style room as he made his speech.
He added that Europe had a special need for "a single,
consistently estimated measure of inflation" as it merges its
separate economies, with the common currency the Euro, set to come
into effect in January 1999.
"As monetary union proceeds... it would be to the advantage of
monetary authorities in the Euro area to have a consistent measure
of inflation defined over a broad basket of goods and services that
is measured according to established statistical measures,"
Greenspan said.
"Many countries' responses ( to the OECD survey ) were prepared
by the countries' statistical agencies, which tend to take a
somewhat more sanguine view of the adequacy of the existing price
statistics than do outside economists," Greenspan said.
"Potential sources of measurement bias should be seriously
examined in all countries," he said.

WetGold: Much to my chagrin, no. But, I would imagine that now that you have posted it, you should get an answer, if not

HEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHO DO WE CALL AT KITCO TO GET OUR HANDS ON OUR PRECIOUS.

There, how's that.

OECD says SE Asia crisis to cut Japan's growth substantially
PARIS, Nov 7 ( ADP ) - The South East Asian crisis will cut this
year's economic growth substiantially compared with earlier
forecasts, the OECD said Friday.
The crisis will trim 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off the EU and
US economic growth rates this year and "twice that in Japan,"
Organisation for Economic Cooperation Development chief economist
Ignazio Visco told a news conference.
"Compared with our previous economic forecasts, growth is going
to be reduced substantially from our previous estimates," Visco
said.


But everything's going so great...no, no, I don't wanna go to bed.wahhhh

Amex up/down vol 18.7:1 - adv/dec 3.5:1
NYSE up/down vol 9:1 - adv/dec 5.2:1
Nasdaq up/down vol 3.3:1 - adv/dec 2.7:1

EB - "my precious"
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/GC97Z.gif

Swing chart up 1/2 hr ago
A down Monday will continue the downtrend.
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Stswi.gif

SELBY: be verrrrry, verrrrrrrry quiet......have you ever seen a deer in the headlights........careful.....you will disturb the lemmings.......verrrrrry, verrrry quiet.............heurmph#@!@#!.bump....bump.....bump.bump..........................skiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiid..urgh!

Did you feel the tires hit alot of little furry bodies, muffled though it may have sounded, they were wrapped in more paper than a fish at the market.

Yeltsin to promote energy projects in China
MOSCOW, Nov 7 ( AFP ) - Russian President Boris Yeltsin said
Friday he would seek to promote major joint projects, especially in
the energy sector, during his upcoming visit to China.
Among key energy projects, Yeltsin highlighted plans to build a
gas pipeline more than 3,000 kilometres ( 1,865 miles ) long to
connect Siberian gas fields to China and South Korea.
He also referred to electricity deliveries from eastern Siberia
to China, and joint construction of a nuclear power station in
Lianyungang, north of Shanghai.
Yeltsin, who will begin his three-day state visit Sunday, told
Russian news agencies that it was essential to implement major
energy projects with China, saying the two giant neighbours had much
in common.
"We are united not only by geography, history and traditions. We
are also solving the same task -- to enter the next century with a
strong, flourishing and reformed economy," Interfax quoted Yeltsin
as saying.
"It is also important that we both favour building a world in
which nobody has claims to exclusive rights. A multi-polar world is
the most democratic model for a world order," Yeltsin said.
Yeltsin also confirmed that he was preparing to issue a joint
statement with Chinese leader Jiang Zemin on demarcation of the
4,300-kilometer ( 2,700-mile ) border, ITAR-TASS reported.
The frontier has been a bone of contention between Moscow and
Beijing since the 17th century, and there were frequent border
skirmishes in the 1960s, when China and the Soviet Union were vying
for leadership of the Communist world.
Yeltsin said he enjoyed warm personal relations with Jiang, and
"this atmosphere of openness, sincerity and understanding helps us
to find a common language and respect each other's interests,"
Interfax reported.
"I like the Chinese president very much -- he is warm-hearted,
attentive, erudite and talented," Yeltsin said.
China and Russia aim to boost annual bilateral trade to 20
billion dollars by 2000, compared with 6.85 billion dollars in
1996.
Yeltsin said the two countries should strive to create the
necessary infrastructure for economic cooperation, including better
banking ties, mechanisms for resolving commercial disputes and
effective safeguards for intellectual property.
Yeltsin said Sino-Russian relations had "come a very long way"
since 1992, when he held his first summit talks with Jiang.

SELBY: The rubber band on stocks is unwinding. Right now there is a "flight to safety" of bonds from stocks worldwide. I don't think that bond yields can remain as low as they are just because of demand on the instruments. That's another rubber band that's getting wound up too tight. When worldwide rising interest rates and overheated domestic economic pressures ( low unemp., rising prices ) make bonds less attractive ( as is starting to happen today ) , there'll be a flight to other investments ( real estate? ) . I think the last thing anyone wants to invest in right now is gold given all the negative publicity about CB sales. But that's ANOTHER rubber band that's getting wound up tight, and sooner ( hopefully ) or later, the price of gold will reflect the unwinding of the market pressures.

Yes. I am content. I have been hot for a few months now. When will it end?...hmmmmmm... and I don't do the DOW or spoos. I have been trading them only on paper and doing pretty well. My goals and aspirations bring me to them sometime next year ( early ) . I am only a four year old in the markets ;- ) . Still much to learn from you and others. Been concentrating on the currencies mostly ( they are Moving ) . Gearing up to play with the big boys ( and girls ) and their big toys. btw, I have also noticed market tendencies and can do a pretty good job at 'predicting'. I have been testing these with good success of late. I am a chartist formost with an eye for patterns and repetition. Charts don't lie...eventually...

I keep IRA's and Keough's ( self employed ) .

Tolerant1: I doubt that the Japanese have been frozen in the headlights for 5 years and I don't think we have info they don't have. We shall soon see.

Yellow Jacket: I was talking about next week.

Massive currencies devaluations and stock market crashes! Absolute financial chaos reigns in South East Asia - This is spilling over into Japan, Australia, Europe and the US of A. What inevitably follows is A Financial Tsunami Looming in Land of SETTING Sun. Japan will indeed be forced to dump US T-Bonds to defend the home economy, and subsequently buy gold as it fights for survival- SEE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html

, Sir: Entschuldigen Sie! I do apologize. Didn't see your name in there. You are definitely *not* a weasel, but rather, a gentleman and a scholar. ( I mean that sincerely, *not* facetiously ) . I do enjoy your posts. Carry on ! ( I still feel GOLD will hold the 305-310 area. )

Yes. I am content. I have been hot for a few a while now. When will it end?...hmmmmmm... and I don't do the DOW or spoos. I have been trading them only 'on paper' and doing pretty well. My goals and aspirations bring me to them sometime next year ( early ) . I am only a four year old in the markets ;- ) . Still much to learn from you and others and I will not lose all I have gained by being overzealous. Been concentrating on the currencies mostly ( they are Moving ) . Gearing up to play with the big boys ( and girls ) and their big toys. btw, I have also noticed market tendencies and can do a pretty good job at 'predicting'. I have been testing these with good success of late. I am a chartist formost with an eye for patterns and repetition. Charts don't lie...eventually...

I keep IRA's and Keough's ( self employed ) . Long term...hold 'em type...rather conservative mix...don't care too much where these markets goe short term ( well, I care a little...don't want a crash but a correction ) . ( got it SpudMaster? )

25Mgs?? How long does it take to download 25mgs over e-mail. I have zip. Will that help? Colleen said it is acrobat, no? Let me know. I have a relatively empty drive just waiting for stuff like this ( 2gigs remain ) .

Off to tend the farm. Good trading mate! Watch your backside...

away


watch what happens to gold after lunch ( martinis and Cocaine ) ...elevator...going...hmmmmmmmmm...

Selby: Psst....Psssst........I meant the Americans, you know.....the dip buying, up to their eyeballs in debt folks with no clue....shh....shhhhhhh...

If it's good enough for George Soros it's good enough for me....

The following came from USA gold yesterday. Sorry if it's already been posted. Just got back from a long trip.




Reports and rumors continue to circulate that American billionaire
financier and speculator, George Soros, is buying up gold and gold
shares at these depressed levels. We had reported that Mr. Soros is
credited with making billions of dollars by shortselling the Asian
currency and stock markets just as they began their 40%+ crash in
mid-July. It is also known that Mr. Soros made about $1 billion in 1994
by speculating against the British Pound Sterling, as it plummetted
against the U.S. Dollar back then. We believe that Mr. Soros' positions
will have a "coat tail" effect on market players who are watching very
closely.

The rest is at http://www.usagold.com/Daily%20Quotes

I just opened an account with Jack Carls and would like to know if anyone has exercised their option and has taken delivery of any precious metals? If I bought some Dec. 300 for say $800 that expire 11/14/97 can I take delivery? 100 oz of what? 99.999? How much to deliver?
I would like to buy 100 oz at or near spot and I have been unsuccessful in locating certified gold anywhere close to spot. Thank you

Madsen Gold buys back gold hedge

NEW YORK, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - Canadian mining junior Madsen Gold Corp said it took advantage of the recent decline in the gold price and unwound a portion of the hedge program it implemented in March 1996.

The company realized a C$4,050,000 gain that has been applied toward the C$6 million gold loan facility with Standard Bank London Ltd, said Madsen president Jim Morlock in a statement Friday.

The loan now stands at equivalent of C$1,950,000 and an agreement has been reached to amend the loan repayment schedule with the bank.

Madsen retained a sufficient portion and implemented a new hedging program which will ensure that 1998 production of just over 40,000 ounces will be sold at an average price between US$335 and US$345 an ounce.

In addition, Madsen repositioned itself to protect against more declines in the gold price. It will continue to be active with its hedging program although it will take a long term approach to further take advantage of large movements in the gold price.

Madsen Gold is close to commercial production at the Madsen Mine.

The Madsen Mine has proven and probable ore reserves of 346,023 ounces ( a 15,000-ounce increase during the recent quarter ) and is forecast to produce 40,000 ounces in the first 12 months of commercial output at a cash cost of US$260 an ounce and total cost of US$300 an ounce.

Subsequently, the mine is expected to produce 50,000 ounces per year at a cash cost of US$230 an ounce and a total cost of US$260 an ounce.

As long as money flees into the US dollar, gold ain't goin up. 30 year bond rate is the indicator. now 6.15%.

If you were Japanese and your market was crashing, money would go to whoever paid the best return. Right now the US bond has that title, not nonpaying gold. Therefore flight to US bond and even the Japanese bond, paying only 1.5%, instead of gold.

In the future that will change, but when?

What must be done to cause devaluation of the dollar and what will indicate it is happening?

Midas I hope my sale was the wrong!!! I hope those that bought are right. I still have the last half.

Larryn: Think for a minute. If the Japanese started to move 10s of billions out of treasuries and into gold what would happen. A flood of depreciating paper, met with a spike in gold prices, up, up and up.

Which one would you rather have? Figment standard paper or gold going nowhere but higher in price.

Take a good look at Mr. Clinton and everybody around him. You will start to notice the grey, ashen, tired faces of men and women on the way out.
Dead meat stinks, nobody wants to get near it.

All is down, except oil: +$.55

If Russia wants to form a union of sorts with China and usher in a "multi-polar world order" perhaps they will want to have a freely convertible currency between them and a currency that will be respected world over.
Now Russia has recently had huge headaches with devaluing currency so they know all about these kinds of paper problems. Perhaps some of their wiser heads have got together and realised that if they were ot introduce a new currency ( which they just did ) then to make it gold backed, like Switzerland, then they could quickly elevate their standing in the global scene as an economic power to be reckoned with. They have huge resources, both natural and human...fairly well educated populace and history is behind them.
Also recently Russia has been tidying up it's affairs of old outstanding debts etc and most importantly it is BUYING GOLD, even though it has vast untapped gold resources of it's own.
A little known fact is that through all the communist years Russian aristocracy has held close ties with the Swiss banking establishment and now these bonds will come to the fore.

Speaking of Eyes Frozen in the Headlights, F-Head Greenspan is the perfect example, he is in the middle of a 3 lane highway at midnight,
with the stock market heading straight for him.

Hello All!- {:-}}

For South Africans: Coins =

Laurence Saitowitz Te +27 [011] 887 1903/1928 Cell 082 777 7770

Have just bought some KRands from him- he's OK- .

His brother Woolf is in Vancouver @ JNM Coins. Any questions I should ask ? He said [Wednesday] it wasn't too difficult to get coins at the moment [ but remember, this is s l e e p y & Sunny R.S.A!]

RSA continues......to watch ALL the cricket, and ALL the rugby, and ALL the golf on the box....do they really have time to think about the markets?

Apart from which, El Nino is giving us a sample of our Christmas present. It's been awfully hot, and now 'they'tell us a heat wave is due this week-end!

PHILATELY: Laurence also deals in stamps - will STAMPS go into the debris of a paper implosion, do you think?

Eb- Hi- will send some in the morning...then you can connect with Nick@A & JTF.

Nick - Thanks for the minute chart. Look at the tight channel right now. It looks like a drop is waiting to happen. C'mon Gold!! Do your thing!! Panda needs to buy some cheap bullion!! ;- )

Crytal Ball - Thanks.

I can't seem to get up an

JTF Allan
All the rest of the global dramas will have a domino effect.
As each domino falls over, the news will come to light.
The dominos seem to be falling over at an ever increasing pace.
The realization of what is coming around the corner will dawn slowly on the masses, but they will react faster.
There should be a solid sell off into close.
Monday I expect to be like the last big wave.
Tuesday could be the capitulation day?

Gold must be sold off till financial panic wave has settled.
Full steam ahead...........

While kayaking A Dolphin surfaced within a paddle's ( 6 feet ) length of the kayak and then swam with me for about 20 seconds ( thank god they are friendly! ) AWESOME,especially compared to watchin my gold stock ( ABX ) head for ZERO....XAU now only down 3.90....

Nick - Thanks for the minute chart. Look at the tight channel right now. It looks like a drop is waiting to happen. C'mon Gold!! Do your thing!! Panda needs to buy some cheap bullion!! ;- )

Crytal Ball - Thanks.

I can't seem to get up and go to the beach & golf course. It will just have to wait. These markets are too fun right now.

oh hell...I'm outta here...all my trades are a hold anyway...keep the faith goldbugs!! And I have some expiring en options today...Ouch...but they were all 'free trades'...slight profit...veeeerry slight.

away...to the links


EB: We double posted~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

My puter is in the twilight zone right now. No ms!



Bryce:

Your point about a financial dislocation causing massive liquidation of assets and subsequent paydown of debts is a good one. However, in the current environment it appears that this won't be allowed to happen. The mechanism, at least as far as I can see is as follows. Easy money, somewhere on the planet allows for aggressive lending for any investment in new technology, hotel, swampland, bridge to nowhere etc. Money is created out the ether and distributed to the purveyors of these great schemes against which is the promise to repay ( at a very low interest rate ) 100 years in the future. The next step is that something happens that makes these loans untenable. The swampland is wetter than expected, or the guests don't like the hotel cuisine or some such distress. The entity in question goes belly up. The property is perhaps liquidated, perhaps not, but in any event rarely does the bank recapture the loan. There is no shrinkage in the money supply. When it happens on a large enough scale, in comes the IMF to save the day. They bring some serious piles to the game and again more money is created from the ether, this time to indemnify the banks depositors. Again, no deflation.

If the game were allowed to run its natural course at the bottom of the pyramid and banks were allowed to go under and the depositors in these banks were allowed to lose they're money then the whole system would be locally scarier but globally much safer. The way that this game is being played it is locally very safe. No group of lenders is really going to take it on the chin. The fiat money creators will simply issue a new pile of chips and everyone can go back to the table and shake the bones.

The problem with this strategy is that the system has a markedly increased chance of failure. There is no way to guage what the odds are against a total meltdown in the financial system but there is no doubt that the odds are appreciably non-zero.

This dsicussion group as a whole tends to focus upon this possibility and thus the 'gloom and doom' coloring to every event that appears on the horizon. Those that are on the other side of the fence see the system as being invincible. They will be right until they are wrong and then there will be nothing to be done about it.

The demise of a very successful hedge fund manager in the past few weeks has attested to the danger of playing the insurance game in a narrow way. Here was someone who was apparently making a fine living selling way out of the money S&P puts and collecting premium as they expired worthless. I am sure in the deliberations he had in putting on the position the arguement was that they could always cover if things started to get out of hand. Unfortunately for him and his investors this was wrong. In the same way with the global financial system, if it ever gets stressed too much, it might just catastrophically crack with virtually no warning, except in hindsight. Those whose entire net worth is based upon its continuance in present form may be in for a rude awakening. I for one sincerely hope that this does not occur, but at the same time I am open to its possibility.

Dow 5min chart
Looks ready to fall out of bed like gold.
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Dow310.gif

Oil sparking up to whistle to Hussein?
Such troubling times we live in.

And the spinmeisters quip:
"It doesn't get better than this"

Jesus threw the Money Changers out, Does it tell us something..

kiwi: Your 13:06 about Russia - Russian CB buy gold from commercial banks because others can not sell gold abroad.

so was Russia a net exporter or importer or did they just manage to stockpile everything they mined?

ALL- please help me out? Thanks in advance!

Tonight, Paul, one of my sons, came home, so thrilled and excited. He had received a 'bonus'from Software Connection [listed], for whom he works [so hard], of shares to the value of R6,000. PAPER?

Should the markets be flooded with SE Asian goods in the very near future, what will these shares be worth in the next few months?

Should he sell them immediately? Should he hold?

What should I advise him to do?

EB
The 25mb needs to be sent at say 2mb at a time otherwise it will clog up your email system.
Probably over one hour's downloading.
The pdf files are large and bulky and can only be sent one at a time.
All the others are smaller files and can be bulked across.

Go DOW ( :o}}}}}}}}}

ALL: Does anyone know why gold-eagle still has data on Thursday's close posted for SP, DJIA, etc. ?

Nick ( Aussie ) : Based on your comments of the past week and your posting of the Temple Bear chart this morning, I see that you are clearly in the bear camp and tending toward acceptance of the crash. It seems to me that a test of the Dow at 7200 ( last week's low ) is probably in order first. Avid this morning was thinking that that test has maybe disappeared and we might see some more testing of higher limits for a while. There seem to be lots of opinions in this period of flux.

G. Cole: can you buy into the Temple chart that Nick shows in his post of 11:52?

Advise them not to be greedy and take only what is rightfully theirs.

You sure can learn a lot here! I have a question for the "pros". The price of gold appears to be in a never ending dive. The central banks of the world have found a way to covertly sell their peoples gold via gold loans. The paper salesmen on this forum constantly tell us gold is no longer needed in our new-era economy. Some paper salesmen here also tell us it is not quite time to buy, wait. So in this environment you might think your local coin dealer would be flush with coins. If you were third in line the two people in front of you would be selling. Wrong! While there is an unlimited supply of paper gold, physical gold is getting very hard to obtain. The stocks drop daily over at the comex. Someone is scooping up all the physical gold as fast as the poor deluded people are selling it. This has been going on for many months. Its almost as if someone with enough money to buy all the physical gold offered is buying. Buying whatever is offered at a price which is falling. My question for the "pros". Why?

Look at all the little piggys living piggy lives.

Friday November 7 12:25 PM EST

No comment on reports of G10 weekend meeting--Fed

WASHINGTON, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - A Federal Reserve spokesman said on Friday he had no comment on reports that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and central bank governors from the Group of 10 ( G10 ) industrial nations would meet this weekend in France.

``I can't give you anything on this,'' spokesman Bob Moore said.

Monetary sources in Europe said earlier on Friday that the G10 governors would meet to discuss the impact of new financial products but would not be debating monetary policy and that no statement would be issued.

No further details were immediately available.

The informal weekend meeting in France, near the German border, would come ahead of the scheduled G10 central bank meeting in Basle on Monday under the auspices of the Bank for International Settlements.

Greenspan was in Frankfurt on Friday to address a banking industry conference.

REUTERS

Colleen: Teach them the word prudent. Tell the youngster to take half and buy metal. Keep the remaining half and hold it. Cover the bases.

Man, why do we have to wait for the FULL MOON.
That XAU keeps dropping just like I said. The
bear flag indicates that this leg down will total
20 points putting the XAU at around 70 ( very soon ) .
Also, IBM is going into the tanker, down to possibly 85.

Kiwi: all I was saying is that in Russia mines have their accounts in commercial banks, who sell their production to CB. So, when there is a message, that Russian CB bought gold, it is necessary to distinguish domestic and international operations. I have no up-to-date figures about Russian gold export, but the fact is that several years ago Russian CB gold was measured in thousands of tons, while now it is in hundreds.

Market internals getting sicker

Amex up/down vol 13.1:1 - adv/dec 4.1:1
NYSE up/down vol 12.9:1 - adv/dec 6:1
Nasdaq up/down vol 3.5:1 - adv/dec 3.5:1

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/07/y0004_y00_10.html

Hmmm thousands of tons of gold being moved around in the last few years, now why wasn't this announced, would have really brought the house down.

Tolerant1: I ment the Japanese. Japan is now below 16000 and if this is a turning point for Japan's economy and then the US economy--this is the time for Everybody to buy gold. But gold continues to drop. No need to keep this quiet--everybody knows.

Ah, but Selby, quiet does the good trader well. Would not be to the advantage of any involved with the gold trade to make noise. Why not continue the ruse that gold is dead, long live paper.

Recently, as another form of delusion, some goldbug posters have held that physcial supplies at coin dealers are drying up. BIG DEAL !!. Um, excuse me pals, but how much gold does the average coin dealer keep on hand ????. Maybe $100,000 worth ?, maybe $1,000,000, I doubt it. Anyways, the point is you are loosing track of the big picture when you are thinking about your local coin shoppe boutique running out of gold bullion coins.
Fort Knox is just a phone call away, ready to accept delivery you die hard gold bugs ?, think there is a scam ?. Let me tell you what to do. Call a futures broker and buy a few hundred ounces forward at the nice cheap prices today. Now wait a minute you two-faced buggers, don't sell that option to buy. You keep it, and come expiry date, I want you to take delivery, at your door, via Wells Fargo Services, guarded by Pinkerton's men, the hundred of ounces of pure troy bars you contend are so scarce.

Will you do it ?, really ?. Just as I thought, full of hot air and garbage !

see ya !

RE: your 12:38 post looks like the next stop for the swing chart is -25 in a few days. GC97 chart seemed to show that gold tried to rise after its first punishment but was easily wamped the second time then sat down with the world spinning around its head. Re: the DOS chart does look like its ready to fall off the shelf doesn't it.

Agree whole heartedly that dominos are falling. The USA is so insulated in its view of the world that I'm afraid someone will need to be called in to actually write it on the wall for all to see. If they use won and yen to do the writing then they may get some attention, no?

My feeling is that the media and government are giving forth a line to the populous in order to do crowd control. The entire effort is to let the big guys exit stage right until they are completely as possible under cover. The problem is that Japan/Korea may not give them enough time to move out completely. Oh, well. Poor them!

People here are going to put two and two together after the collapse and they are going to be in a lynching mood. This whole problem with the upper echelon being so corrupt will become the drawing point to doing massive investigation. When people find out just what had gone on they will be white hot livid with rage. Not pretty.

Tolerant1: Forget the gold trade. Everybody knows that Japan has currency problems and they have implications for US debt. If the Japanese are going to dump US debt and buy gold--the idea that started me on this topic this morning--why haven't they done it or why aren't they doing it. The 16000 number has been in local papers all week and Toronto is a long way from Japan.
Anyway I'm finished for today and will be back on Monday to see what happens.

Testing BDE

What if the rumors of the Fed rescuing stocks by massive index purchases is true? What if it worked in 1987? This could explain a lot of things. The belief in the almighty Fed comming to the rescue of the moron investors no matter what is so wide spread that there appears to be no fear at all of buying stocks at these historically excessive prices.

What if indeed the massive stock index purchases ended the recent dip in prices?

Finally, what if there is another dip?! This could be quite unfortunate for the Almighty Fed Stock Rescuers!? Cool way to blow a trillion dollars or so. Where would it come from? We are talking here about the ammounts equivalent to one year take ( steal ) of the Federal Government.

The statement of Alan Greenspan comes to mind: "Governments do not go bankrupt." That is right - they just let the printing presses run. A deflation in a country with developped socialist programs ( also known as entitlements ) is always the forrunner of hyper-inflation.

Any comments?

D.A.: Enjoy reading your comments. I would not expect, however, a subsequent paydown of debts, rather a massive liquidation of debt. It simply disappears through default. Similar to the realestate debacle in the late 80's-early 90's. Wealth simply disappears. Easy money somewhere on the planet must be converted to dollars. If there are fewer dollars being chased by massive amounts of foreign currencies, then the dollars appreciate and again we have deflation. Should the printing presses begin to roll and monitization of the debt begin, foreigners would cash out of their dollar assets, crashing both stock and bond markets. The treasury would then find it had no foreign customers for it's massive debt offerings. It is my opinion that AG would view this medicine as being worse than the disease.

If the IMF comes in to save the day, which would be the most logical expectation, it is unlikely the loans would come without strings attached. The required changes could very well challenge our constitutional form of governance.

I agree that manipulations will continue in an effort to push the inevitable off into the future. At some point things will go wrong and all the chickens will come home to roost at the same time. As do you, I do not look forward to the day of reckoning.

Based on my personal experience I have serious delays in bullion from Blanchard and others ( see earlier posts ) . Not sure if this is management problems or delivery ( to them ) problems.

Fort Knox? What is that ? Is that someplace that houses gold ? How much is there and who inventories and controls the supply - any know reports or audits ??

I read a report ( I think from CPM but not sure ) that detailed taking delivery of gold/silver and from my recollection it is more expensive to perform this task due to shipping costs, IRS forms, holding fees, etc. than it is to get it from other "in-place" sources. How this magic works - I don't know. If anyone knows how to do this I am one to do it but since my posts from a week or two ago as to how to buy silver/gold at the lowest possible price has to this point been unanswered I remain to purchase the old fashion way - through an intermediary.


CPU ticks on this server is heading the same as DOW ( n ) ... sic ...

Wichita Lineman - Pakistan and Slovakia markets are up .19% !!!!!!!!!!

Thank you, Sir!

There's such an unawareness amongst those around me! They think that that which is on paper today must necessarily remain so! I shall pass this on with the hope that awareness is gained.

Tolerant@1 Such lovely posts.....

Night, ALL:-
Someone quoted this the other night [ Panda?] Thought it was good enough to repeat... [ Who else subscribes to NHNE?]

QUOTABLES:

DARE MIGHTY THINGS

"Far better to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though
checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who
neither enjoy much, nor suffer much, because they live in the gray
twilight that knows not victory or defeat."

---Theodore Roosevelt

BRAZIL was halted before - was down over 10%
I wouldn't want to be holding stocks over the weekend..... hehehe
Friday November 7 1:46 PM EST

Dow makes fresh session low amid Brazil stock halt

NEW YORK, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - A turn for the worse in Brazilian stocks added to the bearish cocktail that swilled around Wall Street, pushing the Dow to fresh lows for the day.

The Sao Paulo bourse suspended trading after the blue chip Bovespa index tumbled 10.05 percent.

``It's not helping matters much,'' said Paul Rich, a trader with BT Brokerage.

Buyers kept to the sidelines as the combined Brazilian selloff, tensions between Iraq and the United Nations, sharp falls in Asian markets overnight, and a leap in October payrolls unnerved them, Rich said.

The Dow fell to a new low of 7521.65 for the day before easing back to 7536.14, off 147.10.

The Nasdaq was off 30.17 points at 1593.27.

The S&P500 index was off 17.66 points at 920.33.

Mexican stocks also extended their earlier slide amid concerns over the possible region wide repercussions of a renewed plummet of share prices in Brazil.

Brazil's government has been battling currency speculation.

Richard
I am not in temples camp.
I live in my own and I see a far worse outcome.
I believe that we have put in a secular top at the end of a 15 year run.
My target figure for a crash is around Dow 4000.

I believe that we have just peaked out on a mania wave and will go down far in excess of what most bears think possible.

Avid has too many permabulls and I feel that they won't whistle a different tune till they've missed all the good moves.

With volatility running at excessive levels never seen before,
One should not be trying to pre-emt the market but to go with the direction being set.
All my t/a says that the Dow will go no higher till a secular bottom has been reached.

History has shown that all manias end up below the level that they started at.
Like Bre-x

Puzzled lurker
Those with vision and sight start their accumalation before the bottom is in and average in through the bottom of the cycle.
Sure it might get cheaper, but if you purchase within 10% of the bottom and sell within 10% of the top, you would be doing well.

I used the same method for all my put positions on stocks/indices
I had been buying small token parcels - long dated prior to the Aug top.
Early Oct I was picking positions up at a no risk cost factor.
By the third week in Oct I was 90% in and 100% in when the market retraced and failed.

To average in early doesn't mean you will get the best price,
But if you watch carefully, you can pick up the bulk of your positions within 5% of the bottom.

Being in close to the bottom, gives a feeling of security as if you mistime your entry by a cycle or two your losses are only paper and insignificant.
Patience is well paid off if one has the assets and the time to average in.
IMHO

Currency Chaos and Financial Colapse
Part 1
To understand the world financial situation is to understand the difference between reality and illusions of reality.It is to understand that the basis of all financial failures is the inability to pay debt.Debt is repaid from income or profits.When income or profits are insufficient to repay debts,default occurs.Occasionally,new debts are provided to repay old debts,but this will only increase total debts and future losses.

Since 1990,the world has witnessed a large economic expansion in the U.S.,and explosive growth in South East Asia and China.Within Japan,short term interest rates were decreased to .5% and the government initiated the largest fiscal stimulus program the world has ever seen.Has anyone questioned why the second largest economy in the world,with all of its major trading partners having substained growth,with the lowest interest rates the world has ever seen,with the largest fiscal stimulus package the world has ever seen,has not grown and now the economy is contracting at an annual rate exceeding 11% ?

To begin to answer this question,one must return to pre-bubble Japan,when the Nikkei was near 40,000 when land values at Ohtemachi and Toranomon in central Tokyo would have bought all of Canada or all of California,and when Tokyo was worth more than the United States.On the basis of these valuations,trillions of dollars were lent by the Japenese Banks,making them some of the largest corporations in the world.These loans were not supported by the income of the borrowers,but by the assets they pledged for security.Today,the Nikkei is below 16,500 and dropping,and commercial land prices are down 70% and dropping.The loans are still outstanding,but with borrowers unable to repay loans from income and realizable asset values far below loan values,these loans remain on the books as the losses on these loans likely far exceed the banks capital.
The size of total losses is unknown.However,during November/95,Japan's finance ministry announced that non recoverable loans at the Osaka based Kizu credit co-operative were 960 billion yen representing more than 70% of total loans.A further 230 billion yen were thought to be doubtful leaving less than 10% of Kizu's loans as performing assets.Does this tell us anything about how the balance sheets of the large banks really look? The loss of net worth represented by the collapse of the Japanese stock and real estate markets represents many trillions of U.S.dollars.At the height of the bubble,Japanese land values were estimated to be between 16 to 20 trillion U.S. dollars.A 70% decline represents a $11 to $14 trillion dollar loss in the real estate market alone.When the banks start selling real estate to repay bank loans,look for the market to drop even further.Add this to the losses totaling trillions of U.S. dollars on the stock market and the potential loss exposure of the Japanese banks is staggering.
When the bubble in Japan burst and banks were facing massive loan losses and negative growth prospects,a new source of revenue had to be found.This led to a large increase in lending to South East Asia which helped fuel a bubble in these economies.In addition,exposure to derivatives increased to trillions of dollars.
We have recently seen the bubble burst in South East Asia which will further add to the loan losses that the banks cannot report as they do not have the capital to do so.
It is estimated that when the Nikkei dropped below 16,500 many banks capital fell below the 8% minimun required by Japan's Finance Ministry.This does not include the losses on loans to the Japanese and South East Asia bubbles that are real,just not reported.

When the Japanese bubble burst,the Japanese government began a series of fiscal and monetary stimulation to get the economy restarted.Total government debt rose to between 87% to 89% of GNP at the end of 1996 and could be as high as 97% of GNP by the end of 1997.The government budget deficit has been running over 7% of GNP.Significantly,despite record low interest rates,interest payments now absorb over 60% of total tax revenue.In addition,their is Japan's Fiscal Investment and Loan Program,a system that draws money from public pension and postal-savings systems and lends to 57 government agencies.Total borrowings are about 374 trillion yen,and when combined with official borrowings could see Japan's debt inflate to 150% of GNP.

Japan's life-insurance industry reportably holds 25% of the U.S.12 trillion dollars in household savings.As highlited by the failure of Nissan Mutual Life Insurance Co.,this industry is also in need of a life line.When Nissan Mutual collapsed,liabilities exceeded assets to such a degree that the industry's entire 200 billion yen emergency reserve covered only 2/3 of the loss.These company's have promised returns as much as 5.5% while earning only 2.9% on investments in 1996.For 1997,with bond interest rates decreasing and the stock market declining,returns on investment will likely fall below 1996 levels.
According to Standard & Poor's,the level at which hidden profits on stock holdings disappear are as follows:
Company Nikkei Company Nikkei

Toho Life 19327 Mitsui Life 17167
Kyoei Life 19006 Dai-Ichi Life 14948
Nippon Dantai 18835 Meiji Life 13181
Chiyoda Life 17876 Nippon Life 12894
Sumitomo Life 17485 Taiyo Life 9757

Despite near invisable interest rates and hugh fiscal stimulus programs,the Japanese economy continues to implode,contracting at a rate exceeding 11% in the last reported quarter.Problems will only increase with the financial turmoil in South East Asia where 44% of Japanese exports go.
The question that no one dares ask is what does the Japanese government do?
The economy is imploding,government direct and inderect debt is 150% of GDP,the government budget deficit is large and unsubstainable,and the banks and life insurance companies appear to be insolvent and will need substantial capital infusions to remain viable.The answer is that the Japanese government cannot repay present loans and that borrowing additional funds to bail out the banks and insurance company's will only speed the road to bankrupcy.The banks are large holders of government debt,and while it could be argued that the government could borrow even more money from the banks and then turn arround and give this money back to the banks to improve their equity positions,this simply amounts to transfering debt and does not address the central issue that neither the banks or the government are financially solvent.In fact we have the situation where an insolvent government is borrowing from insolvent banks who in turn rely on the backing on the insolvent government.Loans now far exceed the capacity of debt repayment,and compounding interest and an imploding economy will seal their fate.Basically,it is simple mathamatics.How long will this continue?Like any bankrupt person,until the credit cards are cut off.It is important to realize that this will take much longer than in a normal commercial situation.Japanese banks must be willing purchasers of Japanese government bonds at all times,reguardless of fundamentals.Should a government default on its debt,the value of its currency which reflects the credit of the government must approach zero.Currency is simply another unsecured promise to pay,and currency issued by a bankrupt government will have no value.Generally speaking,the bank's assets are financial ( currency based ) and will also fall to zero if the currency collapses.The banking and financial industries are dependant on a functioning government bond market.It is for this reason that governments which are insolvent can continue to borrow.For clarity,let me repeat the initial question.

Since 1990,the world has witnessed a large economic expansion in the U.S.,and explosive growth in South East Asia and China.Within Japan,short term interest rates were decreased to .5% and the government initiated the largest fiscal stimulus program the world has ever seen.Has anyone questioned why the second largest economy in the world,with all of its major trading partners having substained growth,with the lowest interest rates the world has ever seen,with the largest fiscal stimulus package the world has ever seen,has not grown and now the economy is contracting at an annual rate exceeding 11% ?
These are all conditions which over an extended period of time should produce explosive growth,expecially in a country like Japan with a hard working,well educated population with a high level of national savings.The fact that they have not can only mean that debt levels are so high that they are consuming more than the country can produce.If unreported bad debts at Japanese banks were only say $500 billion U.S.,over the last 7 years,the effect of world wide growth, .5% interest rates, and trillions of U.S. dollars spent on government stimulous programs would have easily solved the problem.The fact that none of these measures has solved the problem can only mean that bad debts are much larger than anyone realizes.Bad debts must total trillions of U.S. dollars.

Over the last several years South East Asia and China have expanded manufacturing capacity at a furious rate,much of this financed by debt.Over capacity is driving down prices,with Asia's export prices falling 4% over the last year.With recent currency depreciations,this trend will likely accelerate.Falling prices mean falling profit margins which further reduce debt payment capacity.Over capacity and high debt have now infected Japan's neighbors.In Korea,company after company has gone bankrupt,threatening the stability of the banks and possibly the entire country.In 1996,net profit at the 30 largest chaebols fell 90%.Due to the size of its economy,should the Korean won continue to fall,it will add to deflationary pressures within China and Japan.The story is the same in almost all countries within the Pacific Rim.Even China is affected with bankrupt state company's and insolvent banks,where 25% of bank loans are non-performing.

Over capacity financed by debt leads to falling prices which leads to the bankrupcy of first the borrower and then the lender.Problems accelerate when banks make loans on overpriced real estate or for stock market speculation,as income from these assets is often only a fraction of debt service requirements.When the market revalues these assets based on their ability to generate cash flow,losses are huge.When these events occur in countries where governments have borrowed far beyond their capacity to repay,then bond markets and the value of the currency are destroyed.

In China,consumer price inflation is virtually zero,down from 24% three years ago.Japan,Indonesia and Vietnam are similar .Asset values,from real estate to stock markets are in a major deflation.

In the United States,during the last 3 to 4 years,foreigners have purchased over 2 trillion U.S.dollars in debt and shares.These funds have driven up the value of the U.S. dollar in spite of a large current account deficit.They have kept down the level of interest rates,driven the level of the stock exchange to new highs,and propelled the economy to strong growth.Price deflation in Asia and a strong U.S.dollar have kept inflation at a very low level.It has been the best of times for America.Some even call it a paradigm shift.

"In equity markets, continual upward revisions of longer term corporate earnings expectations have driven price-earnings ratios to levels not often observed at this stage of economic expansion"

"It is difficult to believe that our much higher than expected income tax receipts are unrelated to the huge increase in capital gains which, since 1995 have totalled the equivalent of one-third of national income"

"Today's Central Bankers have the capacity of creating or destroying unlimited supplies of money and credit."

"Clearly,how well we take our responsibilities in this modern world has profound implications for participants in financial markets."

These are all quotes from Mr.Greenspan,head of the U.S. Federal Reserve.Mr. Greenspan cannot tell us that Asia is insolvent and will collapse.He is giving us a warning that we must heed.Price deflation and a collapsing economy in Asia will decrease U.S. corporate profits.Lower profits and a lower price to earnings multiple will significantly reduce the level of the U.S. stock markets.
The U.S. budget deficit has decreased because of capital gains taxes.When people report capital losses,the budjet deficit will balloon.
When Asia collapses,money and credit will be destroyed.Japanese banks and insurance company's will be forced to sell U.S. assets to help finance losses in Aisa.So will the Chinese.For years,China and Japan have exchanged their goods for U.S. paper.When Japan's economy collapses,they will convert this paper for tangible assets.

The U.S. is the largest debtor in the world,much of it owned by foreigners.They have the largest current account deficit in the world.These factors have caused major financial problems for every country where they have existed.
When the Japanese are forced to sell U.S. Treasurey debt,it will cause a panick out of treasury's which will sharply increase U.S. interest rates.In addition to other factors already mentioned,higher interest rates will accelerate falling U.S. corporate profits,will accelerate the drop in the U.S. stock market and will accelerate a move to a much higher U.S. government budget deficit.
When foreginers sell treasury's,Americans must buy them,which will take money out of other economic activities.Future government budget deficits will have to be financed by Americans,and Americans may find that they may not be able to run large current account deficits.When Americas banker goes broke,we may see another paradigm shift.

The problems of large debt levels in a deflating economy are very real.Deflation reduces both income and asset values,which leads to the bankrupcy of both borrowers and lenders.Japan has been deflating for the last 7 years.With the rest of Asia also deflating,deflation in Japan can only continue.

Japanese households have about U.S.$12 trillion in savings.The banks have gambled these funds on real estate and stock market speculation,and over-built manufacturing capacity.The government has spent it attempting to kick start the economy.Some day,everyone will realize that the real value of the assets backing these savings is only a small fraction of this U.S.$12 trillion dollars.Already,some of this money has moved to safer destinations like the United States.While the U.S. financial position is much better than Japan's,fundamentals are still very poor and will deteriorate rapidly when Japanese banks and insurance companys are forced to sell U.S. assets.
When the Japanese panick in an attempt to preserve their wealth,their only choice will be an asset that is not someone's liability.The asset that best describes this property is gold.

In 1997,the world wide demand for gold will be the highest in human history,and will far exceed mine production.Yet the price of gold has fallen to 12 year lows. As the world watches the first tremors to the world wide financial default,speculators are adding to huge short positions.Experts in the financial markets will tell you that gold has lost its monetary value and their is the continual threat of Central Bank selling.Central bankers in Austraila and Switzerland claim that gold is no longer a suitable investment.Austraila's actions appear totally unreasonable.Gold is a major employer and export earner for Austraila.Even if it were true,why would you tell the world that it has little value?The funds obtained from the gold sale have now been lent to Thailand and Indosneia?Are loans to bail out bankrupt countries a more suitable investment than gold?Even the Swiss announcement appears to be more geared to lowering the price of gold than maximizing the price of an asset you may wish to sell.Gold has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars in bank loans outstanding that are not supported by either the income or assets of the borrower.It has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars in government bonds that are supported by no assets and which interest costs now take up large amounts of government tax recipts.The only thing holding world wide financial markets together is confidence.Confidence that governments and bankers will not let things get out of hand.Confidence that requires the price of gold to remain low.

Yet all of the confidence one can have does not change the fact that the direct and inderect liabilities of the Japanese government total about 150% of GNP,it does not change the fact that liabilities at Japanese banks and insurance company's likely exceed realizable assets by trilions of U.S. dollars ,it does not change the fact that the Japanese economy is contracting,and does not change the fact that Japan and Asia are deflating at an accelerating rate.Some may say these problems are managable.I would only ask,"How"? In the end,finance comes down to simple mathamatics,nothing more nothing less.

A little over 300 billion U.S. dollars buys every once of gold in every central bank in the world.When Japan crashes,none of this will be for sale.Gold miners have sold forward about two years production and speculators hold large short positions.How high does the price go when the U.S. $12 trillion in household savings starts chasing an asset their is so little of?

JohnK; Could U make the post a little longer next time ...

Sorry, Kiwi - shutting down, and I saw your post.. Thank you.
With all the extra hours Paul has worked, I'd say that his 'bonus' was more than rightfully his. I'd rather have seen that in hard cash, though....wonder why these firms don't offer a choice between their shares and the equivalent in cash?

Have a great week-end...Take care.. [Everytime I say that I think of JIN- he really seems to be in a danger zone. Does anyone know how he's doing in Thailand?]

collen -- Thanks, but it wasn't me.

The VIX chart reminds of the song, "Stairway to Heaven."

Sorry to break up the "touchy-feely" stuff - but need to do it ...

 JFK becomes President. ( 1960 )
 JFK issues Executive Order # 11.110 ( 1963 ) to allow Treasury to issue U.S. Notes costing little to taxpayers.
 JFK is killed.

 LBJ becomes President - rescinds Kennedys Executive Order.
 U.S. Notes withdrawn and replaced with Federal Reserve Notes.

Panda: I prefer "this songs got no title just words and a ( hollow ) tune" - Grey Seal, EJ.

Kiwi: Economy it really bad there for a long time. To my knowledge, they where selling a lot in last years of "communist era" and some time after - just desperately needed money, thats all. Why no announcements - not used to tell the truth in old times, and now people are still the same, not Swiss

DJIA down 143 - a rally from +150.

Wichita: Buying gold options is a very good idea. I have dozens of thousands of ounces of the june 99's myself ( Don't tell D.A. oh what the heck since I have my position ) . I do not intend to sell them. There is a risk to these options however, there may be no gold to be delivered by then. What I was referring to was the four eagles/krands I try to buy/sell almost every day to guage the physical market. I do this to see how quickly things can be done at retail. In 1979 at the height of the gold craze it was much easier to buy those four gold coins than it is today. Strange, eh?

JIN is doing just great in Thailand cause he's on HOLIDAY there---he lives in Malaysia near the Thai border...

John K - Must congratulate you on your outstanding summary of current events - clear, concise and all true.

Lurker and Wichita Lineman: Blanchard and other dealers don't keep bullion coins on hand in any numbers. They take an order and short their distributer. The distributer probably keeps only enough inventory to handle normal volume. None of these dealers and distributers was prepared for the increase in volume caused by the lower bullion prices and fear of a paper crash. Now let's continue to think this through. What if the U.S. mint doesn't have enough eagles to meet demand? They must mint some more right? What if they don't have the gold on hand? They must order some more and that's when comex or Ft. Knox will show some action. This is a classic case of just-in-time inventory creating temporary shortages of a manufactured product. As Wichita Lineman has pointed out, you can always buy a futures contract and take delivery. Meanwhile, we must either find the dealers who have coins or wait...

John K
Fantastic overview on why the world is in a mess.

Gold will go up next week, Japan and China ( or both ) will dump T-Bill's Big time if this volatility continues to erode their biggest markets in Asia.

CB manipulation not the only cause of gold's current slide. Escalating fears of global deflation and the perception of the dollar as the ultimate "safe haven" also key factors.

But as attention shifts from the realities of global deflationary trends to the inevitable reflationary moves of governments and central bankers, gold will have its day in the sun.

The speed at which the gold complex is now tanking suggests the trough is very close time wise if not necessarily price wise. The gold complex will start to discount the prospect of reflation and a global flight to hard assets long before the trend becomes evident. Once the bottom is in THE SKY IS THE LIMIT.

LURKER: Do U actually take possession of your position or are you trading paper ( options ) ? Lineman suggests that we take physical possession ( that is, "goldbugs" ) .. also, do you really purchase full sets of eagles/krands daily ? U are doing quite well to purchase a complement every day ...

Does anyone know what % of gold content in the bars held at COMEX?

Speed: Fort Knox ? What is it ?

Have U ever taken physical delivery - please inform me of the details and cost savings over retail ... thanx ...

XAU now only down 3.96~~~~~~~~~~

Investors!

Please remain calm. There is nor reason to panic.

Please remain calm. There is no reason ...

If NY was not doing their Shenanigans every day, Gold would have been 400+ atleast, They killed everything coming out of Asia everynite.

PDG only down 8.05% and CDE only down 6.02%

If you Milk the same Cow three times a day, you know what happens in a year

ONE AND ALL: There is no gold in Fort Knox. End of story.

John K: One of the best posts I have seen here in a long time. Keep em coming. You seem to agree with my position that once the bottom is in THE SKY IS THE LIMIT.

John K.. Excellent economic overview of Japanese situation and I couldn't have said it better.... but I reach a slightly different conclusion.

Tolerant1.. for you too. If I am Japanese and the only income generating asset on my books is US treasuries, I keep them. I then devalue the yen big time and my books and income look much better. I therefore don't have to admit my gross error and commit Hiri Kiri. Lowering the yen ( -20-40% ) to about 150-180 yen/$ would almost match the other Asian devaluations and would once again make Japanese products cheap in the US. Our trade deficit with them would go out of sight. Japanese cars would be cheap and Detroit would scream.

If the US bitched too much, the Japanese would sell bonds until Washington shutup. Eventually, our economy would fold up too, just like you said. Then gold will explode.

Buying gold is the option of savers, not those about to go broke. If you are going bankrupt, you worry about eating next week, not about retirement assets.

As I type, Edward Yardeni is on CNBC talking about the almost inevitable de-inflation in Asia as a very serious problem and that the Germans and British are making a mistake by raising rates.

John K. I was glad to see your post and hope you return with many more ( shorter ) ones.

Larryn: GOLD IS NOT AN INFLATION HEDGE. IT IS A DEFLATION MOCHINE. I will return with study on said subject. The US will not be seen as the rock of Gibralter. Japan will run with open arms to gold. US paper will go poof!

TOLERANT1 ---- U R the VOICE of SANITY ....

Dow closing push up is trying to get going... I can hear'em straining....

Keep it coming John K. don't let the fringe scary you off it just part of the game!!

Looks like bullion bounced off support, but the gold stock indexes hit new lows ON VERY HEAVY VOLUME. The long awaited selling climax in the gold shares has begun. Good chance the final lows will be made next week.

tolerant1: I bow to you and your in-depth knowledge and come to you with humble heart and ask the following:

Is it cheaper to take delivery on silver/gold options ? What is the best mechanism ?

Lineman only taunts us and provides no details. Perhaps he lacks the experience to perform the transaction ( which is neither right/wrong ) .

Thanx in advance !!!

Well Boys and girls it looks like we have confirmation of a bear market and possible war in Iraq ? Comments please.

John K: CONGRATULATIONS, it has been many a moon that I have NOT had the sheer pleasure of reading such an exhaustive and scholarly analysis. It was Mozart perfect in brevity and meaning: not a note too short nor too much. In the event you are ever in my neck of the Internet, pls drop in to chat - rest assured I am the heart and soul of discretion:
vronsky@netrox.net

Looks like a heck of alot of last minute ramping to bolster the DJIA at the close so the masses will not realize that markets world wide have been down as much as 10%....and the DJIA off as much as 180 earlier with 6 losers for each winner. Step right up SUCKERS and place your bets at the worlds biggest Casino @ Wall & Broad.

And so far Tolerant1, there's no Fort Knox in gold either. : )

Tolerant1.... Damn, you're fast. I am ready and waiting to buy gold, gold stocks, and gold funds on margin, and I don't give a damn about inflation/deflation. The question is financial ( the market ) . Will the Japanese sell what makes them money and which will go up in value at their discretion ( devalue the yen and all of their dollars go up in value in their world ) .
I don't think they will next week. They aren't selling much now becaue the 30 year bond rate keeps going down. Meanwhile, they get about 3-4 billion dollars each month from us from trade. They have to do something with that.

I, however, am ready to admit my error at a moment's notice if the bond rate goes up and XAU stops dropping like a rock and the Joberg index goes up and London gold is quoted up.

Once again, as I type, the Bear Stearns economist is talking about the same thing. This subject is heating up. He said that the Japanese liabilities are in yen, and the assets are in dollars. ( ? ) Thus a devalued yen would help their books, and that, right now, is very important to them.

The following is from http://www.strategicinvestment.com

This is an excerpt. I subscribe to this as well as six other newsletters. I can recommend it to add to a well rounded reading on world financial events and thinking.


Your Investment Strategy

"History with its flickering lamp. . ."

by James Davidson

- Winston Churchill, in a valedictory address on Neville Chamberlain

Gold is a deflation hedge

Admitting that "history with its flickering lamp stumbles along the trail of the past," providing only an imperfect guide to the future, it is nevertheless better to be guided by "a flickering lamp" than to stagger in total darkness. Unfortunately, many believe they are being guided by history, when they have seriously misconstrued its record. I return, therefore, to Jon Matz's question, "If Deflation Likely, Why Buy Gold?"

Gold not an inflation hedge

The historic tendency for gold to rally in value during deflations is not appreciated, in part, because most investors wrongly assume that gold is primarily a hedge against inflation. The record here is clear, but apparently overlooked. It was documented in a thorough study, The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience, 1560-1976, by Professor Roy W. Jastram. Here, in Jastram's words, is a summary of his findings:

"The evidence drawn from the English experience for 400 years is clear. Gold is no hedge against inflation of a prolonged character. Even worse, it /lost/ operational wealth ( purchasing power ) consistently and seriously in each inflationary episode.... [From] ( 1897-1920 ) , a person would have lost two-thirds of his operational wealth just by holding gold in bars from the beginning to end. And this was in the golden age of the gold standard."

What about deflation? Jastram continues:

"Four pronounced price deflations took place in the four centuries recorded, with the three most severe occurring since 1800. In all four price recessions operational wealth in the form of gold appreciated handsome ly. When one sees that just by holding gold for 13 years from 1920 to 1933 operational wealth would have increased 2 1/2 times, one realizes that gold can be a valuable hedge in deflation, however poor in inflation."

So much for the conventional assumption that gold is a hedge against inflation. Its hedging value proved enduring from one inflationary peak to the next only because gold appreciated enough during deflations to recapture the value it lost during prolonged inflation.

I believe that changing megapolitical conditions will amplify this tendency if we suffer another deflation at the twilight of the Industrial Age. A deflationary crisis on the cusp of the millennium would call into question the capacity of the U.S. government to meet its liabilities - nothwithstanding recent improvements in the fiscal picture. Compound this with the advent of competitive private cybercurrencies that are essentially digital receipts for gold, and you have the makings of a substantial appreciation of gold in deflation. As I repeat, gold has the commendable feature, more important in deflation than under current circumstances, that it is a form of liquidity that is not also someone else's liability.

I hope here on the third try I have made this case convincingly. The reason I do not abandon our early stage gold mining shares now when there is little sign of inflation is precisely because gold is not an inflation hedge, but a deflation hedge. The record of the past four and half centuries confirms this. The advent of the Information Age will increase operational demand for gold by facilitating the creation of private cyber-currencies. I believe we are right about this and the general market is wrong.

Larryn: Quite correct you are. And I apologize.

Looks like they have had success in cutting todays DJIA loss to near 100.

Have you CLIMAXED yet???????????????????? How many damn gold and gold share bottoms have you called this year?????????????

Gusto Oro: There is Fort Knox in gold. It is wrapped so deep in this paper fiasco, figment standard counterfeit casino, that you cannot see it shining brightly yet.

The US Govt. robbed the gold directly from the people in the 30s, now, their sad game is ending and it's beloved paper is taking every last cent they have.

Don't be crazy. Buy gold. You are playing financial roulette if you don't buy gold.

Comex warehouse gold stocks FELL 22,994 ounces to 571,859 oz

Comex warehouse silver stocks FELL 1,891,676 oz tp 129,765,274 oz, another new low for the last twelve plus years.

Damnation! Another triple digit down Friday! This isn't supposed to happen! Where's my thirty percent a year increase? I gave up my raises for those stock option thingees, and what are they worth now?

The following excerpt was brought to you by the lawyers association for sueing stock brokers. We're headquartered in Arkansas. Call us at 1- 888 - sue - urbkr Ask for 'Hil'.

LINEMAN:

I'm waiting for the details on how to take delivery ???? Please take into account the following:

Contract price, exchange fees, out charges, delivery, wholesale commission, one year storage fee, reship to purchaser, assay charge, resale proceed and net cash/profit.

I've seen the figures - they don't add up to a savings.

Colleen - First ask if he would like to hear some advice from you. His reaction would tell you if he is really interested or just doing the son-respecting-mom thing. If he's listeaning tell him what is in your heart. If he's not just a warning about things not always what they seem, possible problems in the future, etc. Unfortunately men here in the US tend to think "I can always earn more". Don't know if that idea is prevelant in RSA-land.

JohnK - Your knife cuts cleanly through the corpse of this victim. As a forensic specialist you are very lucid and focused. What are you doing with your analysis and what might you offer regarding strategies for defense and profit in such a time as this???

Tolerant1.. Good post, but Davidson has been know to make extravigant predictions which didn't pan out. He claimed that Slick would be gone by June '95 and he had my full support, but he was wrong.
My time period of investing in gold, etc, is about one month, so longer periods are nice but almost irrelevant to me. Even in Kitco, there have been arguers declaring how gold has gone from 850 to 308 since 1980 and therefore it has lost money for us all. Bull. In addition, to proclaim that gold is the secret solution to all financial problems is equally stupid. I am sure you are with me in the middle.

Since 1985, my records show many cycles of gold between 350 and 400 and many others between 400 and 480, with one reaching 501. These provided ample opportunities for the nimble trader to exercise his skill.

Slim Pickens riding the H-Bomb down .... while Greenspan et al look up, pants wet, utterly impotent...

Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.43

Wet Gold: Good grief. I am no expert. But I shall do the best I can to help, and aid in that which you desire. I read back a little in the posts of the day and came across your next to last post wherein you seem to be trying to purchase in quantity, but at what price?

Earlier in the day I posted the phone numbers for Kitco, Jefferson Coin and Bullion and e-gold. I would give each of these folks a call and seek out their advice. I believe very firmly that each and every one of these companies and the individuals would do the utmost to help you. As for Kitco I do not, much to my already stated chagrin, have a name for you. Perhaps someone else here would be kind enough to offer up one for.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .262

Outta here buddy before I slap ya around.

tolerant1: Thanx for your reply.

Let's make the assumption that gold bullion is constant over the life of a futures contract. With this parameter in place, I therefore, decide on the cheapest vehicle to acquire physical gold/silver.

2 options: Futures contract OR retail ( Kitco, Blanchard, et al )

Lineman makes a statement ( taunting us ) to acquire the "Money" via expiration of the contract. My question ( to which LINEMAN HAS NOT RESPONDED ) is how is this done ? My little research has lead me to the conclusion that it is more expensive to take the Future endeavor than it is to get the gold/silver at retail. If there is a cheaper way I wish to pursue that avenue.

How do retailers do it ? They are not selling it at a loss ?

To all our Kitco scholars out here. Whatever happened to the derivative
risk? We have seen the world currency and gold markets go into a tail spin
and I have to presume that someone out there is hurting with playing the wrong
side of the markets using derivatives. We all know that the derivative players
are the big institutions and sophisticated investors. The whip sawing
that is going on most certainly is having its impact but, we are not hearing
about it. Any thoughts on this derivative animal and what may happen
once he gets out of his cage?

Larryn: Jack be nimble, Jack be quick, Don't be short gold at the final tick. In addition, my point there was that based on an exhaustive study gold seems to be the choice in deflation. I utilized this piece, though penned by Mr. Davidson to illustrate the thinking of yet another mind.

Good luck in your trades.

Wow....The dow closed @ 101. Gained 90 points in the last 20 minutes of trading. Who would want to buy stocks in that quantity and hold them over the week-end???????

November 7, 1997
U.S. "fast track" trade authority vote delayed

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Faced with a possible embarrassing defeat on a key element of his economic policy, President Clinton agreed Friday to a delayed vote in the House of Representatives on "fast track" trade authority.
The decision to delay the scheduled vote until the weekend was announced just minutes after Clinton made a plea to lawmakers to support him on the legislation, which would give him special powers to negotiate trade agreements that could not be altered by Congress.

"The choice before Congress is clear," he said. "I think it is imperative that we understand that a key reason more people are working and that wages are rising and that unemployment is down to the lowest level in more than two decades is that we have opened new markets and won new customers for American goods and services."

On Wall Street, stock and bond prices were down on Friday. But analysts said traders were more concerned about a strong U.S. October job picture, which could mean higher interest rates, and about shaky world financial markets than about the trade issue.

Gingrich said about 60 Democrats were needed to vote for the bill for it to pass. Previously Republicans had demanded 70 Democratic votes. He said the intensity of the lobbying against the bill by labor unions scared many Democrats from supporting their own president.
"We are going to cooperate with the Clinton administration in every way we can to get it through," Gingrich said. "In all fairness, they face a much harder job and the labor union pressure, and frankly blackmail, has been so extraordinary."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TRADE-USA.html

G.Cole-Today I purchased back my Gold futures and went long April.XAU was a real bargain today, did some nibbling.Mike Sheller-Tell that cute Pepi to keep his paws close to the ground we are ready to TAKE OFF!Passengers welcome!Happy Trails

Struck a nerve, eh, with my "irrational exuberance" over the impending demise of COMEX metals stock? Chuckle. The COMEX count-down to D-Day continues; let the New York paper pushers & opinion fabricators DO THEIR WORST! There's one hell of a herd of gold-ants nibbling away at your Elephantine bulk. Hide the fact with your prostituted Press, your paid television popinjay Talking Heads. The day of the world realizing that THERE IS NO PHYSICAL GOLD TO BE HAD is near. My question to the Gold Plunge Team is: How long can you keep it up, boys?

As I said last friday as a trading strategy always short gold when there is financial crisis.

BillNOregon: Who'd want to pull up the Dow in the last 20 minutes? Easy - Rubin & crew - they needed to throw Louis Ruekyser ( sp? ) a sop for tonight's "Wall Street Week". I can almost here the flatulently smug opening now: " ...but showed outstanding strength in the final hour. Meanwhile, poor, ever hopeful goldbugs slumped to their worst pasting in 12 years..". And of course, he'll fail to say a word about COMEX stocks, or the vast sucking sound from the world making the physical disappear.

There is a two or three tier distribution system. Small coin shops buy from regional coin shops who buy from distributors like US Tangibles in Texas who buy from mints ( bullion coins ) . I wonder if you can buy direct from the mint? The US Treasury has a direct buying option for T-Bills on a retal level. Could call them or browse over to their web site.

You will have to buy enough to establish a wholesale level of purchases to get the best pricing. Lots of 50 Oz gold and 500 Oz silver coins. You will be charged at spot + 1.35 - 1.50 for silver but will get 1.23 - 1.35 + spot on the return trip. So the mark-up is about 12 cents per ounce for silver. Gold bullion coins at about spot +16.00, return trip of spot +11.00 or so a $5 markup. If you are buying at these levels you will find that you could easily sell them at retail locally and completely recoup your mark-up. Of course we are not talking about becoming a coin dealer here. And if fast turn around is your game then futures is the game to be in not physical possession.

BTW in the event that gold becomes scares and demand and prices escalate than is fair to say the dealer or individual would give you more than enough in the spot + $prem to actually make money on the deal in the premium. It is to dream.

Wow....nice summary, where do you get access to all those facts from? Are they all available to the public or are you privvy to some and guestimating others?

Ted-Everytime I post you the Dow goes down the tubes.Must be that fresh Eastern air.Happy Trails

Anyone have a take on why CEF up when PMs down ?

CS First Boston issued a buy recommendation for Newomnt Gold.

November 7, 1997
SEC's Levitt says brace for more stock market tests

BOCA RATON, Fla. ( Reuters ) -- The top U.S. securities regulator warned Wall Street's elite Friday that last month's record-shattering billion-share trading day was just the first harsh test for the nation's stock markets. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt assured the 700 professionals attending the Securities Industry
Association' annual conference that the markets worked smoothly during the market turmoil late last month, but warned that more work needs to be done. "Let us not be complacent about what happened last week. I'm not persuaded that last week was necessarily a true test of the strength of our markets. The goal of this industry has got to be capacity, capacity and capacity."

"Systemically we did not see a peak," Grasso said. "When the wave comes it's not going to look anything like last week. You can never be comfortable that you can be prepared for an event."

Grasso admitted that some changes are needed to the circuit breakers, suggesting that end-of-day trading should not be disrupted by artificial halts. "The idea of closing the market prior to 4 p.m. is generally not a desired one," Grasso said, adding that regulators in Washington are going to put the circuit breaker issue "on a fast track."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/MARKETS-LEVITT.html

Ok, here's what you do. I assume you don't have a broker for futures. Get one. Explain to him you are taking delivery of the gold, you must do this since he will assume that you are trading, like 99 percent of the people who have a futures broker. Tell him you want delivery, and he will tell you where to pick it up, or have it delivered. Also inquire about the minimum size, I think the minimum contract size for COMEX gold is 100 troy ounces or, about $31,000.00. If you want less than this amount, ask how you can split a contract, or have him devise some other means. He wont like this crap from you of course, since he is just getting one lousy $25 commission for all this hanranguing. The broker will think you are nuts, because if you buy the contract and take delivery, you are killing all the leverage power if gold does increase. Thats another point, I think the requirement is about 5% of the contract size, check that too. A lot of work, but you seem determined. Anyway, here is plain fact: if your beloved gold bullion coins get short, the mint will just churn out more. One call to Fort Knox, and all of a sudden you have a few hundred tonnes of supply, everyone is overstocked, end of shortage. Besides, you hardcore goldbugs have to stop thinking that you are going to corner the market my holding $10,000 bucks worth of coins in your cookie jars. It will do about as much good as the sacks of junk silver that you are currently using as a doorstop.

Wet Gold: I personally prefer the instant purchase and hold. You can take delivery or utilize e-gold as a safe store device and if you change your mind, one keystroke and it will arrive promptly.

In addition, once you place the calls and get three different viewpoints from three different minds it will give you something to sink your teeth in.

I for one believe that is the best way to proceed. Do not think in terms of squeezing every last penny. Think more in terms of peace of mind, ease of movement and instant liquidity.

Contracts and such are just not my bailiwick.

TWO SOLAR STORMS HEADED TOWARD
EARTH
November
7, 1997

In the next few days scientists expect the effects of two solar storms to
be felt on earth. Huge solar flares sent off a clouds of magnetically
charged particles that are headed towards earth. Such electrical storms
may disrupt satellite and radio communications. Experts say that in rare
instances such distrubances can knock out power grids on earth.

slick: Derivatives are not only for "big guys". 70% turnover of Amsterdam options trade is private money

Goldbugs -- Presently, you will be able to replace those sack-of-silver doorstops with bale-of-paper doorstops.

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Re- your 13:10. I agree with you that the dominos are falling, but it will take more than a week to completion. The Japanese have kept their system afloat since 1990 -- so I think it will take longer than this. However, I do agree that the collapse may be dramatic when it comes!
Also, that average American investor will not notice anything is wrong for a while and we will have further downturns with rallies for some time.
I do agree with you that the "powers that be" will desperatedly push gold down until the market is sufficiently low that they will realize that "further resistance is futile" as they say. The gold and gold stock buying frenzy will begin when the market bottoms.
I wish all of this were not happening, but it is, and I don't plan to be underneath anything that can fall on me! It would be nice to get the market deflation over with, so that we could go pick up the pieces.

we have long since quitely traded that gold to the Arabs for oil, the rest went to the Federal Reserve. All we guard is the illusion that there's any gold here. If we really needed any ( spit ) , heh, we'll we'd just have the President declare it a controled substance and start the confiscation. Heck o lot easier than mining ( anther big grin ) . 'Course, it kind of *is* mining - mining gunless citizens who can't fight back. Them's the best kind. Now shut the f*** up and hand over your gold.

John K.: Excellent, I hope you decide to post more. Thank you, a pleasure.

Crunch: In recent weeks it has been trading at a discount to its net asset value. Tomorrow I will check Barron's and post the current NAV. I suspect that is the reason.

John K. -- I mailed that posting to myself. Too good to let slip away!

It must be said that there is something of a pack mentality forming in this forum, any cowboy who steps off the party line gets pasted all over the screen. Is this a good thing or just a sign that the times are tough and the room for error is small?
I have to admit what is advocated here is really not much short of revolutionary given the current status quo of Western society and it's insistent to cling to paper promises. Perhaps we see now why there is little or no reason for those in power to live up to their promises, they can merely make up new promises to make better their renegging on the old ones. What we are really targetting is the soundness of a democratic system that is based on written promises where the promise writer is also the arbiter of good/bad promises.
Tread carefully the outsiders of a mass delusion will become a target when the reality sinks in. It's the bearer of bad news that receives the wroth.

SICK OF THIS CRAP-Dean Martin likes you Very Much."Everybody loves somebody sometime"Happy Trails and some Blue Nun for all even LGB.

Lineman & tolerant1: Thank you. U provide some good insights.

FYI: Some of us ( me ) out here don't want to trade for the quick profit. I personally have been dollar-cost-averaging my gold/silver/platinum holdings this year with an aggressive buy program. I new when I was buying gold at $400 that gold would go down BUT every week I kept purchasing ( still do ) more because no-one knows the bottom.

Knowing my limitations I buy methodically. Now - If a futures contract provides a different vehicle by which I can purchase the stuff at a minor premium I want to do it while simultaneously purchasing "the stuff" periodically. Over a period of years one acquires a large amount of bullion. IS THIS BULLION WORTH MORE THAN MY INVESTMENT -----NO----.
But, if the paper market proceed as it did in France ( 1790's ) and at other times too numerous to mention WE will be AOK. ---IF NOT--- I'll have alot of metal for my descendants to pass down ...

Thanx again for the insights ...

Thank You Very Much for spelling out in detail what I have been tring to get across on this sight for the last few weeks....
I am certain that many non-believers may be converted after reaading your post. Perhaps they are not able t do their own research and Due D , you have laid it all out for anyone that would like to confirm your statements ....the answers are literally at their finger tips.

THE WORLDS LARGEST BANKS AND GOVERNMENTS ARE CURRENTLY BANKRUPT.... we can only hope that the man in the street will not figure it out for a bit longer...thus buying us some a bit more of a "roaring " time before the pay back begins.

STOCKS-OFFICIAL CLOSE

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Prices on the New York Stock Exchange closed lower in heavy trading Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 101.92 at 7581.32.
The NYSE Composite was down 6.46 to 487.29.
The average price per share lost 58 cents.
Decliners beat advancers 2396 to 532.
Volume was 564,084,730, vs. 522,173,970 on Thursday. Total week's volume 2,192,000,000.

It is probably too early to try to define new channels based on recent action, but here goes.

Gold - Down on bad news ( Swiss ) . Down again today and weak. Have to conclude this is not an aberration, and adjusted the channel accordingly. Now -10%/year vs. previous +5%. Somewhat wider = higher volitility. Gloom!! :- ( (

Silver - Broke out but still strong. Adjusted the channel. Now +40% vs. previous +50%/year. Still not bad. Wide channel = high volitility.

Platinum - Bad news. Seems to have gone flat. Maybe now trending down if late-in-the-day drop doesn't correct fast. Movement now seem tied to gold, and not to palladium.

Palladium - Blissfully staying in the original channel. Upward at 50%/year.

OECD urges "vigilance" in U.S. monetary policy
PARIS, Nov 7 ( AFP ) - The U.S. Federal Reserve should maintain
vigilance on monetary policy, with some industrial countries wanting
the Fed to take pre-emptive action now to forestall inflation, the
OECD said Friday.
"There was agreement that the Federal Reserve should maintain
vigilance in the conduct of monetary policy," White House chief
economic adviser Janet Yellen told a press conference after a
two-day meeting of the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and
Development's economic policy committee ( EPC ) .
"Some delegates stressed that it ( the Fed ) should be poised for
a pre-emptive strike against a possible pickup in inflation in the
near to medium term," Yellen added.
During the EPC meeting, delegates were puzzled by the fact that
inflation has not picked up in the United States despite a prolonged
period of strong growth, Yellen said.
They could not determine whether this was the result of
temporary factors such as low import price inflation or permanent
elements such as structural changes in the labour market due to
globalisation of the economy and increased productivity.
They finally agreed that "in the end, only time will resolve
this puzzle."

November 7, 1997
Ex-J.P. Morgan analyst pleads guilty

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - A former J.P. Morgan and Co. Inc. analyst-trainee has pleaded guilty to trading on inside information about four companies that were subjects of takeovers, federal prosecutors said Friday.

The trainee, Roy Handojo, 25, an Indonesian citizen who was employed at J.P. Morgan's Financial Institution Group, faces a possible maximum sentence of 10 years in prison and a $1 million fine.

Federal prosecutors said Handojo pleaded guilty Thursday in federal court in Manhattan.Handojo had been charged with making $350,000 from the trades. The trades involved Barnett Banks, Signet Banking Corp., ACC Consumer Financial Corp. and Great Financial Corp. He is scheduled to be sentenced Feb. 9 before U.S. District Judge Robert Patterson.

I had proposed your 'Japan-crash-US-paper-liquidity-stock-drop-gold-up' thesis in 1Q97 on this thread and foundout the hard way that economic laws pay second fiddle to spin managament. Your eloquent and fine analysis is more robust than mine ever was.

The bottom line: most of the world has decided to support the US economy in the absence of stability. The countervailing balance is the Duestchland-Europe axis now building toward a united currency and economic base against US hegemony.

Gold price is stopped-out until the CBs stop lending the inventory to the '900 Pound Gorila' ( shorts ) and until the US$ corrects against Yen/DM - which is still difficult to see in this 'new paradigm' economy for the good reasons you describe ( except for DM ) .

The Golden Shorts have fixed the gold market. They are insiders to CB activities and know when to borrow in advance of the news and dump on the day the news hits the folks on Kitco. The Shorts have successfully ratched-down the gold price into lower trading ranges since the Ducth starting selling gold last year about this time.

I look forward to your further analysis on the subject. In consideration of gold price dynamics I think it wise ( from recent experience ) to reconsider the fact that 90% of the gold market exists behind closed doors.

Gold "could only go up" when the players who own 90% of the market decide so - 'we' don't have a vote.

Cheers

JOHN K.- WORDLVIEW ( Nov 07,97 @ 14:49
J.K. Go directly to the top of the Kitco class. Excellent summary of the Asian finance and currency situation. Well Done, Sir! I have stated that currency tied to currency, over valued Asian real estate, the inability to Asians to service debt on their real estate will in concert bring about a world finacial crisis not witnessed before.History and PM"s values cannot be ignored much longer. The worldwide public has been ennamored by the ever rising equities markets and has ignored simple mathematics and good house-keeping principles.
Would some also please advise Bloombergs ( check the Snapshots news re Gold "Gold is depressed due to selling by producers" Is not that what producers do? If anyone has followed Bloombergs Gold snapshot reports, I am sure you too would surmise that they also do not know what to report or how to explain the strange and peculiar price movement of Gold. Sorry about the spelling errors no time to check. Back to the best Oz beach.

November 7, 1997
Wall Street merger mania could go global

BOCA RATON, Fla. ( Reuters ) - The wave of mega-deals sweeping Wall Street will turn into a tidal wave combining huge financial institutions from around the globe, top Wall Street players said at an industry convention here Friday.

"In the next three years we are going to see some cross-border and cross-country combinations much larger than the Morgan Stanley Dean Witter merger or Traveler's .... We're about to go from $20 billion deals to $100 billion deals," Morgan Stanley Chairman Philip Purcell told the conference.

"The next phase of consolidation is about to begin ... and the final game will be played in New York, London and Tokyo," he said, addressing the 26th annual conference of the Securities Industry Association ( SIA ) , the largest trade group of the financial services industry.

Purcell's own Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Discover & Co. sounded the starting gun for Wall Street's merger fever earlier this year with its merger with Dean Witter. Since then, an avalanche of deals has been announced.

"I expect we will have fewer companies and larger mega-mergers, and not just on Wall Street -- in every walk of commerce," Grasso said, noting similar trends in telecommunications, accounting firms and airlines.

The sweeping changes in the industry were encouraged by the erosion of Glass-Steagall legislation, which prohibited banks from participating in the securities business. Some parts of the legislation, enacted in the wake of the Great Depression, have been rescinded recently.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/MARKETS-DEALS.html

These last half hour market support operations will boomerang on the financial establishment before long. By artificially propping up prices they are encouraging the suckers to hang on while the big boys cash out. In bear markets the mass of investors typically do not get out until prices have fallen STEEPLY. It will be no different this time.

When the public realizes how badly they have been had, they will come after the Wall Street boys with a pack of dogs. And this public is far larger today than it was during the last big bear in the early 1970s.

Although there maybe some big players and manipulators in the markets and in global finance my thought is that not one of them knows exactly what is going on. Some of them know more than others and these guys probably make the most money...eg; Swiss trading banks. Right now the situation is looking pretty rough on the horizon and these guys know this but their present stategy is to keep Gold down for better or worse. Even the experts get it wrong...economists more often than other "scientists".
What is becoming really alarming is that their actions combined with other unfortunate developments, Japanese debt bubble pricked, globalisation of debt and freer money movement may be the worst thing to do at this time.
Rather than keeping our economies stable with low inflation, as they have been mandated to do so, it seems more and more likely that they have their foot on the gas pedal and this rig is heading for a cliff. In most of my experience the biggest disasters are not the result of some evil master plan but the confluence of several unlikely coincidences and some pure ignorance. This is the cock-up theory, sometimes known as Murphy's Law, " the worst thing that can go wrong will", it's actually a reflection of human fallibility. Seems to me like a good dose of humility for some nations will do well to bring them closer to Earth and the Universe.

George - Just wanted to tell you "great job".
Last Friday you were telling people there was a
70% chance that gold would be at $340 by the end
of this week. Based on that level of confidence,
I sold everything I had and bought gold. BTW,
is the market open tomorrow, or did I miss something?

Massive currencies devaluations and stock market crashes! Absolute financial chaos reigns in South East Asia - This is spilling over into Japan, Australia, Europe and the US of A. What inevitably follows is A Financial Tsunami Looming in Land of SETTING Sun. Japan will indeed be forced to dump US T-Bonds to defend the home economy, and subsequently buy gold as it fights for survival- SEE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html

If You look up at the sky on a clear night you will see a luminous white band stretching across the heavens.This is known as the Milky Way or our galaxy.It consists of a disc shaped collection of billions of stars,gas and dust,in which our solar system is embedded.The Galactic Centre is the source of powerful X-Rays and Infrared Rays,and when our solar system enters that area of influence,stock prices rise.Since Gemini is the area opposite Sagittarius,we now have an explanation of why the transit of Uranus through Gemini,the Ruling Sign of the U.S.A.has been accompanied by many historical events.TO BE CONTINUED PLUTO'S DEATH SIGNAL .

Mr. Vronsky:

Why would Japan buy gold with any treasury sales? Wouldn't they find it better to pay off debt?

You sold everything all at once and bought gold ( not stox I hope ) all at once. You sound like me - an impulsive type. But look at it this way, what did you loose? If you were in equities you missed a good drop. Maybe you 'lost' 1 - 3% in gold spot if you bought at 312 - 318. No problem. You are buying low enough. Hold the line. You are invested. Keep you eye to Jan-Mar'98. 6 months is pretty short and alot of doo-doo is developing in this piece of time.

During the Roosevelt Administration, The Federal Reserve Board, insofar as the public was concerned, was Marriner Eccles, an emulator and admirer of "the Chief". Eccles was a Utah banker, President of the First Securities Corporation, a family investment trust consisting of a number of banks which Eccles had picked up cheap during the Agricultural Depression of 1920-21. Eccles also was a director of such corporations as Pet Milk Company, Mountain States Implement Company, and Amalgamated Sugar. As a big banker, Eccles fitted in well with the group of powerful men who were operating Roosevelt.

There was some discussion in Congress as to whether Eccles ought to be on the Federal Reserve Board at the same time he had all of these banks in Utah, but he testified that he had very little to do with the First Securities Corporation besides being President of it, and so he was confirmed as Chairman of the Board.

The Banking Act of 1935, which greatly increased Roosevelt's power over the nation's finances. First of all, it extended the terms of office of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors to fourteen years, or, three and a half times the length of a Presidential term. This meant that a President assuming office who might be hostile to the Board could not appoint a majority to it who would be favorable to him. Thus, a monetary policy inaugurated before a President came into the White House would go on regardless of his wishes.

The Banking Act of 1935 also repealed *the clause* of the Glass-Steagall Banking Act of 1933, which had provided that a banking house could not be on the Stock Exchange and also be involved in investment banking.

This clause was a good one, since it prevented a banking house from lending money to a corporation which it owned.

Gold Reserve Hearings 1934: "Governor Montagu Norman of the Bank of England ( 1927 1929 ) had gone directly to Andrew Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury, to get him to purchase Government securities on the open market and start the movement of gold out of the this ( USofA ) country back to Europe.

ABC,NBC,CBS, all carry US Government propaganda used to manufacture consent for the on coming air strikes against Iraq.

My best guess would be the following scene:
MONDAY: Markets open in Asia down and continue the slide around the globe....Powers that be try to hold the market from slipping ...efforts prove futial!!!! Within 72 HOURS AIR STRIKES ON IRAQ WILL BEGIN... ofcourse after the sacrifice of one U2 spy plane and pilot ....this should keep peoples attention off their money.... This shall all happen give or take 96 hours...Next week may be a very busy news week.

The Kitco House Rules

1. All human organizations or endeavors tend toward decay. That is, it is the natural evolution of all humans and human enterprises to
become more corrupt, disorganized, and increasingly unable to maintain homeostasis, with two notable exceptions:
a. The gold mining industry
b. The mainstream press, which only becomes more adept at manipulation
with the passage of time

2. It is the natural tendency of any equity market to go to ground,
that is, the unsupported level of any equity market is zero. All
stocks, therefore, are worthless.

2a. Except gold stocks.

3. It is the natural tendency of gold to go to infinity, that is,
the unsupressed level of gold's value is infinite.

4. Somewhere, an equity market is falling. It is your job to find
it and report it ( although this information relies on the mainstream
press for accuracy, you can assume it is accurate if it reports the
natural order of things ) .

5. Any rise in any equity market is insignificant. ( For example,
the DJIA rose 100 points this week. This is insignificant. )

5. Any fall in gold is a buying oppportunity.

6. Any rise in gold is a buying opportunity.

7. Although any change or no change in gold is a buying opportunity,
you will always have trouble buying physical gold because there is
never any available ( see rule #8 ) .

8. Proprietors of physical gold never, ever have any in stock.

9. It is perfectly acceptable to make any kind of assertion or prediction, no matter how badly it mirrors accepted reality or eventual outcome, provided somewhere in the post you acknowledge any of the previous rules, or explain failure by recourse to any of the previous
rules.

10. We don't like niggers.

Because this wasn't the first time I bought on GSC's advice.
You're right, six months isn't a long time. I bought gold and
gold stocks six months ago when George was telling everyone
the rise was going to be meteoric, and it seemed like my money disappeared almost instantaneously.

3 ( . ) 5 hours till we hand you the beating of yer sorry lives and expose you for the all-glitz no talent ( or balls ) team that you are.

You are a spade-coon

AT&T WorldNet Service Survey Results:
Survey ending November 8, 1997

Survey question: With the biggest point declines ever in the US stock
market indexes occurring recently, do you think the US stock market is
primed for another record setting decline?
Not this year
1243
Votes
( 37% )
Before the end of this year
564
Votes
( 17% )
Nothing record setting
1547
Votes
( 46% )

3354
Total Votes

I believe that the charade will continue for 2 more years.
Greenspan and Rubin admit market manipulation, and no one cares. Why?
Because 99% of investors and the population have everything to lose in case of a collapse. The manipulation will continue, the bankers, the financial gurus, the investors will pretend that everything is OK because its in everybody's self interest. When gold price skyrockets as Big Trader, Simple Man, Another,and John K. indicate, we will have social and financial upheavals like never seen before. Governments, political and financial systems will fall, and suffering will be widespread. Nobody wants that!
People will allow anything in order to prolong their comfortable lifestyles. 85%of Americans are in debt up to their eyebrows. They will tolerate and believe anything that doesn't disturb their lives. Too much is at stake. Gold bugs know that it's all a house of cards and we expect the imminent increase in gold prices, and nothing happens. The markets go down and gold goes down. Manipulation.
Australia announces their gold sales 5 months after the fact, just when gold starts going up. Coincidence? Dow drops 500 points and IBM announces $5 billion buy back. Coincidence? Everyday DoW goes up in the last hour of trading.
Everybody participates in the charade because its in their self interest. Any prudent investor would be out of stocks now. That includes MF managers. They will stay in, they have no choice.
Japan has been bleeding for 7 years. Ask yourself why would any prudent investor stay in their stock market since ( pick your year ) 1991, 1992. Its a controlled bleeding. Powers that be do not want a crash. So they suck in unsuspecting investors who buy on declines. FOR SEVEN YEARS.
Not one Asian country will step out of line because they will not be allowed. Powers that be ( IMF and others ) will step in and do whatever it takes to not let it get out of their control. And they will be able to, because altough some people realize what is happening they will pretend that everything is OK. They have no choice; we all are slaves of the global financial system.
I feel that only an external trigger ( ie y2k ) will turn everything upside down. Until than they will inflate, deflate, manipulate the markets, the numbers and the reports, and everyone will CHOOSE to believe it because they want to believe it. The alternative is disasterous.
I know many will tell me that its simple math and you may be rigth. But in my VERY AND EXTREMELY HUMBLE OPINION it will stay status quo for at least 2 years. Thank you.

I think the newcomers deserve an answer to this question.

I say you did. You claim that you didn't.

Here is the bottom line, which you would answer
truthfully if you were a gentleman and not a
scoundrel:

Who is correct?
Who is lying?

Oh, BTW, great call on "the other shoe dropping".
Unfortunately, you could have dropped this other shoe
at any time - it's just not a very specific time marker.

#336165-10.We Dont Like Niggers.Get a life you LOW_LIFE.

Arden: Whoa, how long can this continue??? We are at record open interest levels and the actual Gold to back it up is plumeting, along with the price. Makes no sense at all yet its continuing.
These are certainly unprecidented times. Better get some of that Swiss Gold out of the vaults fast, we have buyers.........

Relative to other bodies, the moon is near the earth.
Relative to the beginning of the century, the end of the
century is near.

Something can be very near and still not be reachable or
achievable.

For example, when water gets to 100 degrees celsius at
sea level ( atmospheric pressure ) , 101 degrees celsius
is very near, yet the water qua water cannot reach this level.

"Committee to get some type of standardization of squishy
terminology"

Bravo as the progressive wing of the Dem Party Leads Fight against Fast track Clinton and the One Worlder Republicans! Their day will come.

That was HEPCAT using the word nigger

it makes my presence an omnipresence, and as long as you
don't say anything radically anti-catlike, I don't mind

( For example, don't say something like "The bottom is at hand"
or "what a teriffic buying opportunity" )

JOHN K. Thank you for taking the time for the very informative and substantive post. It is greatly appreciated. I am surprised at your assertion that Japan has instituted a large fiscal stimulus program. Everything I have read is to the opposite. Although they have taken steps to institute an agressive financial stimulus program, they have not instituted the necessary fiscal steps to stimulate the economy, particularly to the degree as desired by the US Government. And the reason for the reluctance, according to the reports, is that Japan is preparing itself for the substantial financial governmental outlays which are to be expected in the near future due to an expanding aging population and a large amount of the populace going into retirement. Whether gold will be sought as a refuge, as you believe, would appear plausible but not certain. There has been no flight to gold from other Asian countries under conditions which would seemingly warrant such flight, and even though Japan has a policy where retirement saving can be invested into gold, the last report I have seen on the matter indicates that there has not been substantial gold investment. But if the dollar falls and other saving vehicles prove ineffective, then gold may florish as a last resort. But, thanks again for encouraging my thoughts on the subject.

Is it not ironic that the gloom and doomers, who live for the ultimate collapse, are for the most part civil and constructive, while the brilliant paper chasers, who are full of optimism and perfect predictions, are a nasty, destructive lot? Yet another enigma....

BB Fisher: If you are out there, I would appreciate your current views on the gold and related equity markets; particurlarly as an update to your earlier pronostication.

John, I will echo Vronsky's and other kudos for your astute analysis...we need more on Kitco.

I have only one comment with respect to your comments below, in reading George Soros self-professed theories of "reflectivity" my money is on Soros as one of the key principles buying up gold, along with N.M. Rothschild & Sons in London through the LBMA. The more you read Soro's philosophy of humankinds fundamental flaw and fallability, the more you can appreciate his uncanny ability to have been right about Asian currencies. Who shouldn't have expected that Asian currencies fixed to the US$ would in the end become unsustainable, most of us in the G7 learned this years ago when we left fixed exchange rate conventions. So Soros was indeed correct.

My current thinking is that Soros is positioning himself, in line with his personal philosophy that "the meaning of life consists of the flaws in one's conceptions and what one does about them", in gold. The answer as to who has been buying forward sales of gold and CB gold may soon be answered in an extraordinary way. People of the world may again point at Soros as the culprit of gross manipulation, but I ask you all, is he not correct in his understanding of human behaviour. The herd can easily be manipulated to believe a given tenet, when the herd is moving away from gold in droves ( conveniently manipulated by depressing gold prices through the LBMA but also necessary in order to keep the fiat currency of Asia, US $ and Euro afloat and avoid the implosion of the unsustainable debt bubble ) and when HE knows the debt situation is ultimately unsustainable, WHO ELSE BUT SOROS would be acting as the ultimate contrarion banking on the fatal "misconception" of not only the masses but also the folly of CBs? I can only think of one other major player in history which succeeded to prosper at the benefit of flawed conceptions: the House of Rothschild.


John K wrote:
"In 1997,the world wide demand for gold will be the highest in human history,and will far exceed mine production.Yet the price of gold has fallen to 12 year lows. As the world watches the first tremors to the world wide financial default,speculators are adding to huge short positions.Experts in the financial markets will tell you that gold has lost its monetary value and their is the continual threat of Central Bank selling.Central bankers in Austraila and Switzerland claim that gold is no longer a suitable investment.Austraila's actions appear totally unreasonable.Gold is a major employer and export earner for Austraila.Even if it were true,why would you tell the world that it has little value?The funds obtained from the gold sale have now been lent to Thailand and Indosneia?Are loans to bail out bankrupt countries a more suitable investment than gold?Even the Swiss announcement appears to be more geared to lowering the price of gold than maximizing the price of an asset you may wish to sell.Gold has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars in bank loans outstanding that are not supported by either the income or assets of the borrower.It has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars in government bonds that are supported by no assets and which interest costs now take up large amounts of government tax recipts.The only thing holding world wide financial markets together is confidence.Confidence that governments and bankers will not let things get out of hand.Confidence that requires the price of gold to remain low.

Yet all of the confidence one can have does not change the fact that the direct and inderect liabilities of the Japanese government total about 150% of GNP,it does not change the fact that liabilities at Japanese banks and insurance company's likely exceed realizable assets by trilions of U.S. dollars ,it does not change the fact that the Japanese economy is contracting,and does not change the fact that Japan and Asia are deflating at an accelerating rate.Some may say these problems are managable.I would only ask,"How"? In the end,finance comes down to simple mathamatics,nothing more nothing less.

A little over 300 billion U.S. dollars buys every once of gold in every central bank in the world.When Japan crashes,none of this will be for sale.Gold miners have sold forward about two years production and speculators hold large short positions."

11. Throughout recorded history, whether short-term or long-term,
gold has been an absolutely triffic investment, always providing
the greatest returns in the shortest period without exception.

Rep Patrick Kennedy disclosed today that he received a threat from the Administration of a veto of funding for a project in his district via line item if he did not support Fast Track. Kennedy said he will oppose the measure despite the threat. This guy is also pro-life as he voted to override Clinton's veto of the late term partial birth abortion ban. See Goldbugs, there are some good Kennedys.

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John K. I also greatly enjoyed your post. You definitely are an asset to this bb, plese continue your postings. I especially enjoyed your final summation.

I find it interesting as well as amusing, how those who steadfastly attribute a CB conspiracy as a major reason for the decline in gold now advocate governmental conspiracy as a major reason for the failure of the General Market to decline. This line of spurious reasoning ignores that in 93 gold had its sharpest rally when CB selling was at its height and any and all reported Japanese governmental intervention failed to halt the decline in the Japanese stock market. If fundamentals are in favor of a particular market trend, there is little a government can do to stop the trend other than attempt to change the fundamentals causing the trend. To think otherwise is foolish, if not stupid.

A fresh voice to trot out the same tired analysis

We are all going to hell, and it is this site's
responsibility to educate the world to that fact
and get us there that much faster.

12. Every human enterprise or endeavor or
organization started or maintained ostensibly
for the "good" of human society is a lie.
We humans would have been a lot better off living
in caves, and the fact that every society throughout
history has developed laws, hierarchies, divisions of labor,
systems of barter OR PERISHED is an anomaly.

HA x infinity

13. Everyone else's posts waste bandwidth.

Stone the dreaded Sealark. Expose him.
Find out his phone number. His coevals.
His favorite dairy products.

AND THEN DESTROY THEM ALL
( or run to Bart )

Lets get Physical ....Physical.....Let me hear your paper rip ......let it rip......

Please try not to waste bandwidth....You must not have to pay for any.

John K: An excellent piece of work. I am especially impressed with the information on insurance companies. There has been virtually nothing about this in english versions of the Japanese press, I suspect nothing in Japanese language versions either. I was aware of the Nissan Mutual situation from a single reference in the FT of London. Our resident Japanese Kitco regular, Miz, seemed stunned to learn of it. Recently I learned that there has been a run of sorts on Nissan and they have especially trained girls to talk customers out of redemptions. I also learned that policy holders who insist on redemption are offered reduced settlements of 44% of value. Take it or leave it. Time to re-read what little history there is of the Dark Ages.

tolerant1 - what is this e-gold you are talking about? All - I have yet to receive answers to my questions. Are you too proud to answer a neophyte?

At this point, I would direct you to an e-mail address,
but one of the kind, loving, trustworthy regular members
on this site changed the password, which on the surface
would appear selfish but of course, as nothing in this world
is at it truly appears ( for which this glorious site be praised )
--when I was a child, I spake as a child--
I'm sure can be justified as beneficent.

Not with your Dow/gold ratio hanging out above 24.

The Dark Ages don't kick in until we see 22.

( Does your Dow/gold ratio predict outcomes of bobsled
races? )

To the Younger generation:

Last night I asked LGB what he would be doing when the unavoidable happens in regards to the "Boomers" retrieving their 401Ks en masse when they reach 65. Of course, the first wave of those boomers, as LGB stated, will move their 401K monies into bonds for use as resources for a constant supply of funds for day to day living. That would seem to be a wise move for that particular group.

But we've just seen something over the last weeks haven't we. When the markets go south, there is a flight to the bond markets for "quality" and the rates that bonds produce have dropped accordingly as more and more money wanted those bonds.

When LGB & his friends retire, they're going to sell their 401K stock portfolios and buy bonds.

If the markets sour because of this movement of stock selling fot the movement to bonds, what will the next level of retirees face. Decreasing stock prices and because of the largeness of the flight of monies to bonds from the first group, their rates will drop, as has been shown in this last two drops in the market and the flight to "quality".

So what will Mr. LGB have when he needs it most. A stock market that's shot and a bond market that will have low rates of return. Let's say that the rates go to 5% .

If I might, for this discussion, allow me to use todays values, as I believe everything will be proportionate in 15 years from now. If my available monies increase 10 times then you can be sure that my house taxes will increase at the same rate. My local politicians will insist on it I'm afraid.

$100,000 savings will achieve $5000 income for 1 year.

$500,000 savings will achieve $25,000 each year. Of course, after taxes of 25% that becomes $18,750 ....

$750,000 savings becomes $37,500 which after taxes is $28,125 ....

Now that's just above the poverty level isn't it. So we can live for the next 20~25 years ( ages 65 to 90 ) just above the poverty level if we have $750,000 dollars to invest in the bond market. Higher rates?
Unfortunately, that would be because of inflation so we're no better off since prices would rise and we would have ( in-proportion ) the same level of living.

How many Americans have $750,000 in savings? Yeah right !

Can't count their houses as they have to live somewhere. Won't have jobs as they'll be over 65 and unemployable. Can't make better returns through the stock market because the first wave of retirees will force it down through redemptions for bond investments. Can't get better returns on their bonds because the next wave of retirees ( group two ) will force rates even further down with monies leaving the falling stock markets for the safety of bonds as LGB says they will do. This is becoming a spiral.

Ok, I forgot about the "entitlements" that everyone will receive. Oh, I'm sorry, I also forgot about the rest of the world redeeming the US bonds for their retirements. Uhoh, I'm really sorry, I also forgot about the present problems we have with at least some type of "flation" in the near future that will set back the present values of the 401Ks.

And yet the market gurus say that the best investment for retirement is to save via a 401K in the stock market .... What am I missing here? Maybe they're right...but only if you're over 50 and in the first wave to reach 65. Other than that, ladies and gentlemen, there will be generational warfare as your kids kids will not want to keep you while they slave to start their own families under ever increasing taxes.

Retirement will not be all it's cracked up to be. Geez, I feel like Nostradamus !

MMMmmm.Seems the delinquent plate of dead brain tissue has found a new way to change the colour of his id number.All is well for the insane at Marsha's Vineyard..

14. The correct answer to every hypothetical situation
presented at the site is, naturally, "Buy gold".

It's the browser

MARKUS: Why would Soros sell a large amount of his holding of NEM in late October if he were buying gold?

Y2K People;

It appears Ahmdahl customers don't have to worry about Y2K problems until the year 2042, owing to the 143 year cycle of their standard epoch of January 1, 1900 . . . This Amdahl site also offers links to other related company's Y2K efforts and test code ( like IBM. )

Perhaps we should rename the forthcoming phenomena "Y2K+xx" ( where in this case xx=42 ) . . .

http://www.amdahl.com/y2k/0305.htm

I have a question:

South Korea stock market goes down 6%.
Kimchee purchases become too expensive since
everyone losing money.
South Koreans starving, need something to
replace basic food staple.

What do they eat?

Answer:

Gold, of course.

High in vitamins and a fantastic buying opportunity

Shek,The Market has only 2 emotions 'fear' and 'greed'. Gold has to be kept low, otherwise the herds will divert big numbers that cannot be redeemed physically in Gold by anyone, will take few years to produce specially as all Asian's traditionally trust Gold. Japan's 10 year Bond rate is 1%, US Rates are also falling. People will agree to the plot for single universal currency as immediate survival of global commerce. Soros has done his part to trigger the right dominoe's that was played up in mass media as Asian tiger's. People should realize that creation of credit cannot be infinite. By the end of this millenium foretold events are ocurring. 80+% Gold is in hands that have been around since 5000 years, The are using Saddam to mask the anticipated rise in Oil and other Natural Resources, That is my humbling ( pun intended ) opinion

We all know the PMs are artificially suppressed and that this has created some good values in the PM stocks. Yet RE SILVER I have the best reason to be bullish ie TED ARNOLD ( WHO SHOULD KNOW-HINT ) of Merrill Lynch SEES the potential of 9 buck silver next year because of the ( well known ) shortage which is developing because of ( as we know ) unnaturally depressed prices. CPM group predicted 10 buck silver, due to deficits, in I think a 4/86 Barron's.

Mr. Mick: Just tuned back in and saw the post. Go to;

http://www.e-gold.com

Al the answers to your questions are there. If not. Simply e-mail Mr. Jackson right off of that web site.

Wow, I am just going through this afternoon posts and what do I see. Most of our paper bulls are getting really testy, reminding me my kids when the things don't go their way.
Boys get used to it, to be in a market you better know how to take good with bad. I just wonder what you'll do when we reach the real bear stock market. You behave like somebody took your candy away.

A thermodynamics professor wrote a take home exam for his graduate
students. It had one question: "Is hell exothermic or endothermic?
Support your answer with proof."

Most of the students wrote proofs of their beliefs using Boyle's Law
or some variant. One student, however, wrote the following:

"First, we postulate that if souls exist, then they must have some
mass. If they do, then a mole of souls can also have a mass. So, at
what rate are souls moving into hell and at what rate are souls
leaving? I think that we can safely assume that once a soul gets to
hell, it will not leave. Therefore, no souls are leaving. As for souls
entering hell, let's look at the different religions that exist in the
world today. Some of these religions state that if you are not a
member of their religion, you will go to hell. Since there are more
than one of these religions and people do not belong to more than one
religion, we can project that all people and all souls go to hell.
With birth and death rates as they are, we can expect the number of
souls in hell to increase exponentially.

Now, we look at the rate of change in volume in hell. Boyle's Law
states that in order for the temperature and pressure in hell to stay
the same, the ratio of the mass of souls and volume needs to stay
constant.

1. So, if hell is expanding at a slower rate than the rate at which
souls enter hell, then the temperature and pressure in hell will
increase until all hell breaks loose.

2. Of course, if hell is expanding at a rate faster than the increase
of souls in hell, than the temperature and pressure will drop until
hell freezes over.

So which is it? If we accept the postulate given me by Therese Banyan
during our freshman year, and take into account the fact that I still
have not succeeded in having sexual relations with her, then # 2
cannot be true, and hell is exothermic."

. . . . . . . . . The student got the only A.

Talking about redundant. Sorry, needs to have his butt kicked off this site for excessive "HA"

Honourable Japanese string puppet says; you yankies crazy.

If major Natural Resources rise next week except Gold, something is surely smelly

WW: Have to run, but, good grief, Bubba goes for the fast track and his sneakers are tied by the republicans. The democrats, defenders of labor are trying to nail his feet where he stands. My oootness. Where is Billy Joel to sing We didn't start the Fire.

Later.

At what point does a value investor buy gold shares? Echo Bay at 3 3/8? Is it a 'value' at 3? 2 1/2? 2? 1?

What about GGO, AEM, NEM, NGC, PDG,.....? At some point, these stocks will hit a bottom. Where that is, I don't know. At some point they will either declare bankruptcy or stop falling. There is no guarantee that they will rise either. Has anyone thought about M&As? Even weirder, gold rebounds and the stocks go up.

Look, the jobs numbers and wage figures have got Greenspan between a rock and a hard place. Raise rates and risk tanking ALL financial markets. Those markets whose currency is pegged to the dollar would be most hard hit. Don't raise rates, and lose credibility. A fate worse than markets tanking?

fyi.. Which currencies will crumble next

Which currency will crumble next


The recent worldwide market woes were sparked by the
collapse of currencies halfway around the globe. In a
special two-part series, Money Daily's Michael Brush
examines this phenomenon and its impact on American
investors. Yesterday, Part One of the series detailed
some of the factors that can cause currencies to
crumble. Here, Part Two examines which currencies are
still vulnerable to a fall.


By Michael Brush


Knowing what causes a currency crisis ( see Part One of
this series ) , it is tempting to speculate which
nation's money will be next to suffer. Unfortunately,
this is difficult to predict. Many investors were
taken by surprise by events in Southeast Asia, for
example, when currencies began to crumble last summer
and led to serious market declines in late summer and
fall.


By searching the world for the conditions that can
cause a currency crisis, however, economists can
narrow the list of countries or regions where money
might come under attack. Potential candidates include
the following:


* Latin America. "The markets are telling us that
Latin America is next," says Neil Hokanson, the
president of Hokanson Capital Management in Encinitas,
Calif. By that he means that the spread between yields
on Latin American government debt and U.S. government
debt is widening. Investors, in other words, are
expecting governments to raise interest rates there,
probably to defend currencies. Or else they think the
currencies are about to weaken. They are asking a
higher risk premium, or a bigger yield, to offset
these possibilities. Indeed Brazil had to temporarily
raise interest rates to over 40% last week to defend
its currency.


Not everyone agrees. Brian Gendreau, for example, a
market analyst and economist with Smith Barney, thinks
Brazil can make it through. For one thing, money has
come into the country through "foreign direct
investment" in projects, as opposed to "hot money" or
investments in stocks that can be pulled out quickly,
he says. So the capital flight that can push down a
currency is less likely to occur. What's more,
Brazil's banking system is solid, and its pegged
exchange rate is a cornerstone of the government's
program to keep inflation down. That means the country
will do all it can to stand by the peg.


* Korea. The Korean Won has been under intense
pressure recently, and there are many reasons to think
it could crack soon, says Salomon Brothers economist
Guonan Ma. True, the country's current account deficit
has been narrowing, which is a good thing. However,
capital outflows are strong. And both the banking and
corporate sectors are jeopardized by rising credit
risk -- that is, a higher chance that businesses may
default on loans -- as well as the risk that the
government may impose a tighter monetary policy in an
effort to force a return to financial stability. Both
of those could actually make the situation worse --
especially since the country has a low level of
foreign reserves.


* Eastern Europe. "Poland has a real exchange rate 15%
higher than its recent average, and that causes
competitiveness problems," says Gendreau. "It also has
a current account deficit that is not big, but
rising." Some other countries in the region have
overvalued currencies and rising current account
deficits.


Though Hong Kong was the scene of much of the recent
market turmoil, many economists think the port city
will be able to defend its currency -- in part because
it has a huge amount of foreign reserves. And China,
Hong Kong's new landlord, has an interest in seeing
the currency remain stable and a big war chest of
foreign reserves to prop up the market. That does not
mean Hong Kong's stock market is in the clear,
however. Robert Brusca, an economist with Nikko
Securities, points out that Hong Kong no longer has a
franchise on managing trade with China, now that China
is opening up. "Hong Kong still has a lot of
expertise, but there are other ways into China and
that erodes the exclusivity value of Hong Kong," he
says.


If a country's currency does begin to devalue, what
does that mean for you if you have invested in the
region, either directly or through an international
mutual fund? First, you should look to see whether the
government is taking steps to turn around the
inflation imbalance or current account deficit that
led to the problem. If those steps are not in place,
then you might want to pull your money out -- or
settle in for a long haul before you recoup your
losses -- because the currency is probably headed for
more trouble.


However, the news is not all bad. The experts we
talked to cited two rules of thumb for judging the
impact of a devaluation on companies that do business
there.


* Companies that *produce* in regions where currencies
get cheapened have a lot to gain. Their products are
suddenly cheaper on the world market, and they will
sell more, even though their cost of production
probably has not increased much.


* Firms that *sell* into regions where currencies are
devalued generally get hurt. Devaluations often come
hand-in-hand with economic slowdowns and market
collapse -- which will decrease demand for the local
products. Not only do such firms sell less, but the
money they make there gets translated into fewer
dollars when it flows back to the U.S. And that means
lower profits back home.

Who worries about retirement? We'll all be living in some cheap country like Mexico while they will be working here to pay our entitlements. Free trade at work...Thank you, Bill!

During some discussions on Gold over on S.I. site, someone told me to visit this site for the latest rationale for Gold investing. Having now spent several hours parusing several days of posts, here are my thoughts.

To qualify my own background and investment position. I'm in my late fifties, retired from a middle management position at a well known computer firm, and have recently reached critical mass. A term used by a well known syndicated market analyst, Bob Brinker. This is the point at which you have achieved enough investment success so that you can comfortably live on your gains for the rest of your life without being employed. In my case, simple mutual fund investments over the past 15 years have yielded sufficient gains so that I am comfortably in the 9 digit category. I'm now primarily in Bonds and cash and have been considering some small diversification into precious metals, hence my foray onto this site.

Onto the impressions of what I have read here. First, I was genuinely surprised to see the mindset and reasoning of many of the hard core Goldbugs. They seem to feel that the gains made in the equities markets are somehow mythical. They deride so called paper bugs as somehow inferior in the area of investment wisdom. They spend a good deal of time denying the reality of today's market and the real gains that have enriched so many savvy investors. Speaking for myself, this current unprecedented bull market has allowed me to retire with a beautiful home, and financial security for life. I've seen the kind of philosophy that dominated here for many years now. Those people have impoverished themselves for no reason.

It would seen that posters like Tolerant1, Eldorado, Goldencheeshead, Panda, and most others seem to spend a good deal of their time congratulating each other on the brilliance of their analysis and posts. Yet these are some of the most inane analysis I have ever read. Shallow, narrow views of the world markets. A complete lack of understanding in what drives market psychology. A genuine disconnect from real world facts, or real world history. An embracing of hyperbearish mentality that feeds on every scrap of negative rumormongering, desperately hoping for the anticipated market crash.

Perhaps my opinions will be unwelcome, but I would just like to mention that I've been successfully investing a good many years now, well over 35 years. I must say, the analysis and opinions expressed on this site, are the stuff of minds who have never graduated from the dark ages of economics. Believe me, I am well aware that this market can go down at any time. This is why I've protected my enormous gains through diversification. But folks, the things I read here are so far disconnected from the real investment world where the successful have been living.

There are a few posters on this site who have made some insightful comments, I don't mean to paint all with a broad brush. Oldman, who's name I have heard elsewhere. Some of the initials posters. EB, LGB, a few others. For the most part though, I am greatly disappointed in the recommendation I received to visit this place. I don't know when I've seen more paranoid, hyperbolic negativism in one place at one time. If this is what Gold investing is about, I can well understand why Goldbugs have been branded as Loonies.

I would recommend you all get out on some other sites, and read some good analysts. It appears that many just roost here, trying to convince each other of the rightness of their poor market decisions. I broader scope of study would probably be helpful. Hope my tone isn't too offensive, but truly I'm genuinely shocked at the extremism of the posts here. The belief systems, the so called facts posted, just don't match reality at all so far as I can tell.

I wish you all investment success. Certainly the odds are now shifting more favorably toward your positions, now that we enter a period of financial instability and correction from the outstanding gains of the past few years. Nonetheless, in the long run, many of you will miss out on financial security if your present mindset continues. I suspect, some of you could have joined me in retirement by now had you not been so extremist and illogical in your thinking. It would seem the Financial community's perception of Goldbugs is more than well deserved.

Sign me,

Glad I'm Not a Gold Bug

The Many Faces of Fu Man Chu the other side of "Dark side of the moon"The Mooney picker of last resort.Yes !!! Anyone seen LGB lately?

WW: I take exception to your general statement. I for one do not know that PMs have been artifically depressed, nor apparently those investors who would ordinarily purchased gold if it were indeed a good investment. Moreover, no CB banks are requiring Asian investors to reduce their demand nor, as far as I am aware, are they requring speculators to short the market. Thanks for the comment on silver, that does look promising. Can Silver almost double in value w/o lifting gold with it? What does super gold bear Arnold have to say about this?

KIWI: And a well deserved "A" it was.

PANDA: Echo Bay Mines is a value today as much as the DOW was a value in 1982. In two or three years this will be a $15 stock, or more. So it might take 4 years! As much a value as the vaunted DOW in years hence. This is a rare moment. Dollar cost average...we do still have INCOMES do we not?

Front -- Geeeee! I didn't know that! :- ) )

( sorry Front, the humorous voice tone just doesn't seem to make it across the Web. Seriously though, Yup! Your scenario sounds quit realistic to me. )

Niner, Ahmdal users have the same problem with Y2K as users of any other computer system. 2042 year limit relates to an internal system clock. The same approach is used by many other computer companies and eventually used in system date ( this may effect your application when you ask "what date is it today" ) . Other than that, any date processing in application software ( using two digits for year ) will hit Y2K problem in the next few year when the application starts using next century dates and gets confused if 01 means 1901 or 2001

Don't miss JOHN K 14:49 - Super post!!!!!!!!!!!!

South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 8:17PM 484.26 -31.37 -6.08%

S.I.Spy -- Nine digits as a manager? 123,456,789 A hundred millionaire? I didn't know being a mid-level manager at a computer company paid so well.

9 digits .....

Where's the decimal place ?

TTFN

S.I. Spy: Your critical comments are salutary and noteworthy for their lack of venom, true good wishes, and objectivity. I would only ask that you consider WHO has been a gold-booster WHEN, and for how long. What I mean to say is that there may be a significant difference between those "goldbugs" who have ridden the general stockmarket advance, and are now skeptical as to how long the bull can continue, and those who have touted gold unceasingly since the 1980 top. I would gainsay there are a variety of gold boosters at this site. Not all are "gold at any cost, at any time." If some have been a bit off in their timing, perhaps it is better early than late in a matter so grave as an impending total asset inversion, which has happened twice before in this century and will doubtless, like day and night, happen again. You are blessed to have such a success from your career and your investments. I am truly happy for you. All the more reason for YOU to be more critical, at this juncture, of the wonderful conditions that have brought you your rewards. And all the more reason to anticipate, as always in life, the potential for a reversal of such a paradigm. If the visions of the most orthodox goldbugs do nothing else but put you on yellow alert, you have been well served by even the most bizarre of Kitcoites, and owe them thanks. As I thank you for your well-mannered, and well -reasoned rebuke.

Miro - You Are Wrong!

Taiwan
Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 8:20PM 7629.92 -230.17 -2.93%

Mike Sheller- I would venture to say that ECO would reach $15.00+ before the end of '98!

Tally Ho

S.I.Spy, your post is very well written, I think that making money or not is one's fate or destiny rather than intelligence, The Gold price is strongly attached to the dollar, if you see Gold price movements in other currencies it has mostly improved ( there is life outside USA, too ) . Also, wouldnt you agree that all through the week the DOW closing price was always guided in the last hour of trading. Why is it being done is my question in a free market system ? Japanese rate is 1% on 10 yr Bond while HK, MAlaysia etc , who are all ecomically close, went 100-200%. Russia is no longer a military or economic strength, if China buckles too, it will be a single governance and single currency. I hope I dont sound too off the Wall but IMHO that is what is taking place slowly but surely, I am not saying whether it is a good or a bad thing, but if you look at history beyond the last 20 years ( Thankfully, these years you must have made plenty ) . the trend is clear. I have not made any money myself, lost in High tech, lost on Gold but this is not out of bitterness of loss. This is real History happening with most profound social and political under pinnings for us all. Money is just another factor in these events

S.I.SPY: Like a friend of mine that sells cars says, "There's one for every seat." Could be you, could be me. I am neither impoverished, nor suffering. In fact I myself live the life of Riley and I am much your junior.

I never have nor want to have the American dream you seem so proud of, retired. Big house, ladi, dah. How pedestrian. Let me guess, you play a mean game of golf.

Seems you are very lucky to have amassed your $100,000,000 + in a buuble which has not popped. You could be living in one of many bubbles overseas which are in the process of losing a lot of air.

Or you could have invested in the '20s and became even with the market in 1955. Or you could have invested in the early '70s and became even in 1982. But I'm sure you would have been much too smart too invest in the stock markets at those times.

Yes, you have the timing of an financial wizard. Congratulations.

Niner, will you please tell me how am I wrong?

Herr Spy from SI

Appreciated the restrained criticism you have just expressed about all the disconnected, illogical, innane and insane postings that have so shocked you in your "golden parachute years"! I salute you for your success during the most overvalued, overhyped and overexistentialized equity market in world history ( with the possible exception of Japan which just today fell below the pyschologically shocking 16,000 level having been at over 39,000 just six short years ago ) . Perhaps six short years from now you will better appreciate the Austrian school of economics, the gold standard, sound money and the importance of a contrarian school of thought which this site seems to excell at! I say this because the coming years may find you strapped for cash, selling your worldly possessions and living on the streetcorner begging scraps of bread from some insane goldbug who saw the handwriting on the wall for the US Dollar years before, tried desperately to warn his fellow man of the dangers of a 20 trillion dollar national debt, and denied himself the pleasures you so richly enjoy now for the future security which only those who know the value of the unique metal on the periodic table of the elements we call gold and wisely hedged themselves therein while the price was ridiculously depressed by a corrupt government and economic system that would have us believe that debt is money, inflation is an illusion, and that a new era of unending national prosperity not only is achievable, IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED! Sorry Herr Spy but I've been there and done that historically too many times in the past to believe that this time it's different! Hope you don't find yourself choking on this post in the next few years as the govt. lops off a few of those endebted zeros off your net worth, destroys the value of the currency in which they're denominated and auctions off your beautiful home to the highest bidder just to pay your tax bill! If you think this can't happen in the USA, THINK AGAIN! It can, and when you least expect it, IT WILL! Perhaps then you will be in a position to listen to reason! Wiedersehen, mein golden-parachuted freund! Sorry to enhance your disillusionment with gold, gold bugs and this sorry excuse of a site for
seasoned, successful investores like yourself! We'll need your wealth to feed the many millions who will fail to get to four digit restirement funds much less nine when this market crashes back to reality and sane valuations as it will and as it MUST!

Date: Fri Nov 07 1997 20:03
S.I.Spy ( Gold.. GoldBugs.. Goldsite ) ID#280182:==========
Your comments are well written and regretfully have much truth in them.
The proof is in the pudding--or something like that.
Anyone that has made what you say you've made by good market
behavior, and has taken his profits- and is now waiting for
the next opportunity has my respect.

Why not join us with further comments.
For example if you feel the time to buy is approaching
How would YOU invest in the PMs. What would you base your
advice on-details man details-
WE could all learn a thing or two- as we do from each other.
There are several on our posts that have had similar views like
RJ & The ever offensive one HCat- certainly Oldman is a successful
trader from what I've read. DA seems to have a profoundly deep understanding of markets. Let's not forget our own Glenn, right on the floor of the exchange. NOW let's have some words of investment wisdom from you with details of course.
THANKS

Or maybe 9-digits means he lost a finger.

Bring it on UGLY. When you leave L.A. you will have witnessed 'SHOWTIME' first hand. It will be swift and painless until you get on the bus to the airport. It will be then that you break down and start crying like a babe in the woods. Not even your buddy Spike Lee ( the idjit ) can console you.......but he might try to lick your wounds. BRING IT ON!!!

btw, EB called me and said he will be courtside with Jack N.and Diane C. And he'll be with his new friend S.I. Spy because he is also in the 9 digit club, well actually 10 digits...he has ALL his fingers.

Happy Bricklaying!!

All is well on Wall Street ...Yada Yada yada fueee....
I couldn't take it ...had to change the channel to Candid Camera....AT LEAST ON THAT SHOW THEY LET THE MORONS KNOW THAT THEY WERE JUST PULLING THEIR CHAIN AFTER A FEW MINUTES... Not so with Louis...Its BUY BUY BUY Stock...Yada..Yada...Yada...King of the Talking Heads does it again....The mindless masses will be able to sleep well for another week of slow burn meltdown!
Did anyone watch the entire episode?
If so did I miss anything of merit?
Thank you vey much.

Well, I may be the one who introduced SI SPY to kitco, don't know but I have recommended this site to quite a few there at SI. Sure raised some hackles here. Nevertheless,there is nothing wrong with hearing the other side and finding out what kind of impression one makes out in the mainstream. Perhaps my biggest disappointment is in trying to promote gold and this site we seem to be scaring off the customers! While this gentleman was unfair to some which I am sorry for, the fact is we could do a better job of promoting our interests than some of the vitriolic posts that are found here. Other folks do come by to visit and if we are right in any of what we understand we bear some responsibility in educating the non gold enamored public in a fashion which has some hope of success. They need to understand our views to be better positioned to survive any pop of the bubble as we would do well to understand that we need to sell our positions reasonably and convincingly, if we want to get out of this bear sooner rather than later. We need them and they need us. On the brighter side, I do believe I may have found LGB a friend:- )

Showtime is alotta glitter + hype with zero substance you white haired ole fool.The Suns learned their lesson last night and now it's your turn to get slapped---I ain't Greg Ostertag

S.I.Spy: Lets be practical. At age 55 you have another 20 according to the tables, another 30 if you are in good health. Using the low end of 9 figures, 100,000,000, I presume US dollars, you can spend $5,000,000 a year, $13,700 a day. Man, that is a full time job! You don't have any time for investing in gold. Get yourself busy! And the interest is compounding! You have got a real problem.

No Gambler leaves while winning, ever. All that who made money in stocks are still there, waiting for a way out now. Natural resources are always in Demand. Food for the Poor, Gold for the Rich, it always was, will always be. Man has not learnt from War's nor Famine that the best way is to live within one's means. All the prosperity in USA is due to constant inflow of capital due to created chaos elsewhere in the world. The Foreignor's dont realize that they may not get their monies back out of USA, if at all, then at a profit ( I am not talking of very short term ) .
The governance seeking such redumption have always been deposed and new subservience brought in. Billions of Dollars from Shah, Marcos etc have evaporated into thin air through State actions. If China wins in this poker game, the outcome will be interesting to say the least.

ya' scooped Del Harris by just a few minutes on the digit joke.....DOH!

Yuk, Yuk :-^ )

Yeah,I watched the ENTIRE episode of Wall Street Week and as usual thought it was a great show!!!! God,they made alot of sense--too bad you buggers can't see REALITY.$$$$$$

"The great end of life is not knowledge but action." --Thomas Henry Huxley

I have lurked here for over a year and posted but infrequently. Due to the lack of response ( s ) to those posts, I have been left with the impression that it is extremely difficult to reach tenure as a respected enough enquirer to receive a response. i hope this time is different and would request that those others who have had similar experiences with getting a response will have pity and answer, to wit: Can anyone give technical insight, educated guess, astrological observation, and prognostication as to what the H--- is happening to Platinum. Most on the Kitco site seem indifferent to it and apparently don't consider it a precious metal. I am so deeply committed ( financially ) to it that I am having many sleepless nites.

BTW, How many gold stocks went up today? None that I track, except BCMD. Again. Specualtive, you bet! But remember News FOLLOWS Price. On a day like today in a week like this, BCMD keeps going up, don't you think somebody knows something?
Bon nit, mon amis.

You're gonna STINK UP the place. I will slap you too if you get out of hand.

the SHAQ!!

oh yeah...EB wants the answer on the double or nothing...you tell TadPole ...uh...I mean TedPole the info. And I'm gonna come to the Cape and Slap him too!!

See what I mean?

Roebear - As I believe I mentioned to you previously - I think you should annonce to all that you are going over to Kitco 2 ( much quieter than here ) and posting info on your California Gold Stock. Given the slow bandwidth discussion over there you MAY elicit some intelligent Analysis of an ACTUAL Gold Mine. I will be back over there in the next week or so with some very interesting updates on Two Canadian juniors. ( I'll give you one guess as to the first one and TWO quesses as to the second. )

Platinum, & prices, This is punishment to Russia when Yeltsin fired the council 'mole' Boris Berezovsky couple of days ago, Do some digging there,
it is nothing but mischief

S.I. Spy: Suppose you are a middle level manager and for 15 years you put $100,000 into your mutual fund every year ( pretty good for a mid-level manager ) . You never take anything out and have 20% compound profit every year ( pretty good mutual fund?! ) . How much do you have after 15 years? Answer: ~$7,000,000. To get to your 9 digit number, you need 30 years. Have there been any mutual funds anywhere in history that had consistent 20% return for 30 years? Sounds to me like yet another saga in search for new stock market butt-heads ( You have to be able to sell the stocks to somebody in order for them to be worth anything ) !!!

Numbers:
1 $100,000
2 $220,000
3 $364,000
4 $536,800
5 $744,160
6 $992,992
7 $1,291,590
8 $1,649,908
9 $2,079,890
10 $2,595,868
11 $3,215,042
12 $3,958,050
13 $4,849,660
14 $5,919,592
15 $7,203,511
16 $8,744,213
17 $10,593,056
18 $12,811,667
19 $15,474,000
20 $18,668,800
21 $22,502,560
22 $27,103,072
23 $32,623,686
24 $39,248,424
25 $47,198,108
26 $56,737,730
27 $68,185,276
28 $81,922,331
29 $98,406,797
30 $118,188,157
31 $141,925,788
32 $170,410,946
33 $204,593,135
34 $245,611,762
35 $294,834,115
36 $353,900,937

ShaQ: yous in big trouble 2-nite you cheap-shootin back slappin SOB$$$$$
Go gold/

Consider it done.

When S.I.Spy throws around words like "inane analysis" and "loonies" he deserves whatever might splatter in his face. He's a living testament to the old saying, "it's better to be lucky than good."

Since he has committed all of the Brinker radio scripts to memory, what in the world could he learn from this place?

Oh, and if you want to know his name, look next to Ophra in the list of 100 richest Americans.

Following is my summary of some recent forecasts by Princeton Economics. These forecasts were written in mid October. CAUTION - NOT TO BE READ BY THE HIGHLY EMOTIONAL OR FAINT HEARTED.

GOLD
The US budget deficit will turn into a surplus during the first half of 1998 and the US may begin retiring debt for the first time since 1837. This, combined with selling pressure from CBs and producers, means that new lows in the 229 - 255 range may occur by mid 98. 1998 will be a turning point from which a 1976 - 1980 style bull market will ensue, with gold making record highs by 2003.

SILVER
Silver remains the object of insider manipulation, with stockpiles being artificially lowered. However, it is almost impossible to create a bull market in the middle of sheer bearishness. No sustainable rally in silver is possible without a monthly and year end closing above 5.41. Downside risk is currently far greater than upside potential. If silver closes 1997 below 4.29 then we will at least see 3.27 in 1998.

US DOLLAR
PEI expect the dollar to get MUCH stronger over the next few years due to continued flow of capital to the US. If the dollar closes 1997 above 168.65 dollar/mark and 126.68 dollar/yen, then this is very bullish for the dollar in 1998. Closing 1997 above 173.48 and 144.80 respectively would be outrageously bullish and warn of a full scale panic in 1998.
The politicians ( G7 ) will continue to try to talk the dollar down, but this is not conforming to capital flow and hence just increases volatility. Net capital outflow from Japan is more than 20 times its trade surplus, therefore it will take a lot more than words from the G7 to prevent the dollar from breaking out against the Yen.
The dollar goes to a major high every 18 years, signaling that the peak of the current bull market will occur in 2003

US SHAREMARKET
PEI do not see a 1987 style crash developing. In 1987 the dollar was declining and capital was pouring out of the US instead of in. They expect a drop to around Dow 6500. In August I posted the following regarding the US market :

"Princeton are certain that the bull market in stocks will take the Dow to somewhere between 10,000 and 12,500. The only question is timing. There are 2 possible scenarios :
a ) July/Aug 1997 period produces a temporary high, followed by a correction/consolidation phase into July 1998, followed by a huge bull market going into 2003
b ) New highs occur after Sep 97, leading to a major top in July 1998, followed by a sharp 30-40% correction going into 1999, followed by a re-bound into 2003
Basically, the current bull market in US stocks has nothing at all to do with traditional measures of valuation such as P/Es, Price/Book, dividend yields, etc. It is about international capital flows. Capital is simply in a state of global panic, a situation which is only going to be magnified in the future. With Europe and Asia offering untold risks, the US markets will remain the only game in town for some time."

Scenario a ) appears to be playing out.

NIKKEI
This market holds the greatest risk. A monthly closing below 17019 will warn that the final blow-off to the downside is beginning. A 1997 year end closing below 17019 will signal disaster for the Nikkei.

Date: Fri Nov 07 1997 21:23
Platinum One ( Frustrated ) ID#227223:============
As stated many times long term is my game-and observations.
If you look at long term charts you will see a strong corralation
between Pl & G. However there are divergencies, sometimes at bottom
formation- Pl goes up sharply as it has recently, while gold doesn't.
This then corrects itself before the uptrend begins.
Pl mostly surpasses gold in up moves.

Hope that's of some help- At least ya gota reply!

Are you still making up lies about Ballard??

Talking head LR just said that while volatility is increasing this year, it's still less than HALF what it was in 1987! Only 13 days of 2% or more swings so far this year! So what the h___, even 500 DOW point swings ain't what they used to be! And they say there ain't no inflation! No wonder SI SPY GUY is a multi-millionaire at age 55 in a mid-management job!

Sorry you found it so unprofitable and negative. You have been investing for 35 years so that means since 1962. How did you fair through the several difficult periods between then and now? Did you get burned a few times in your education in the markets?

You are a confident and comfortable person and may have every right to be. Smart enough to know when to be in cash and out of equities at present. What do you think will be the result of this correction? Any concerns about the Japanese/Asian situation?

Hope you can find a site that will cater to your interests and not offend your sensabilities.

Miro;

The last post ( signed "Niner," questioning your rebuttal ) was not me. This board is wacky.

Best Regards, the *real* Niner ( Let them try to forge my I.D. # . . . )

ok

Platinum is a commodity which behaves like one. It has important industrial uses and small above ground stocks. Most of the platinum now mined comes from South Africa and Russia. A small amount comes from a poorly managed american firm which shall remain nameless. Right Panda? ; )
This year platinum prices have moved between 350 and 450? U.S. as the Russians fell behind on deliveries and a couple of big funds toyed with the price. It is currently between those ranges. No conspiracy theories or CB dumping or government intervention, so no mystery and not much humbug either. For professional predictions on Platinum, please apply to RJ, Glenn, or e. away to televise with kith and kin

Some replies:

Reify ( @sitcom.co.il ) ID#413109:
Date: Wed Nov 05 1997 20:33
To sell what I own would mean losses, and what investment at this point
Oil Stocks? Bullion? What?
Reify,
It is a hard game we play, yes? Many have used the paper game to
make great returns and have much to show for it. But, make no
mistake, if you try to use the solid reasons for holding bullion as a
purpose to trade paper gold you will not keep what is earned!
I know those who have traded with the sun and gold bullion will not
be sold at a loss by them. Indeed, these gains will view all forms
of paper as sad returns.
Divide your thoughts, give some to bullion as your will can allow.
Resolve yourself to let the others go if your loses come back.
Much luck to you.

Date: Wed Nov 05 1997 22:06
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD ( @ANOTHER SHOCKING POST! ) ID#431263:
. All
paper gold will be worthless just like stocks and bonds! Am I right? If not
please correct!
Mr. GCH,
You may be more right than wanted to be. For some it is a long torturous
wait to go without paper gains. For ones outside the west, it is not hard.
Days pass easily as a thousand years of history give backing to our
investment.
For what I hold is not an empty promise. Nor is it a major
thought of debt. I am now today, paid in full!




Turn slowly now and view all directions. The wealth that was
had was not real. The Pacific Rim started, now South America.
Next will be Europe closely followed by the US. Remember,
all currencies are the same now as they are digital paper!
Nations will defend the system at all cost They will never sell
US$ treasury debt as that debt is their currency! The dollar
will soar as a final defense! As part of this defense they will
allow oil to rise as oil is priced in dollars. How do you get oil
to rise? Today, we stop our CBs from selling gold!

All:

The two micro-cap Canadian gold stocks that I own both are having large pickups in volume. One of them ( CCM ) traded nearly 400,000 thousand shares today. Anyone else notice this kind of thing going on in other ones?

Reify; Thanx fo rthe response. One last question on Platinum. With the meltdown occurring in Japan, will Platinum suffer only temporarily? I would think that if global economies turn down, the industrial use side of Platinum would logically suffer, until its vale as a precious metal is realized, thus a flight to safety in gold, silver should have corresponding effect on silver and that the next Platinum move up will most probably be preceded by sustained upward movement in teh ptehr precious metals. Also, is Russia a fox or are they just extremely inept at taking advantage of a market opportunity?

Platinum 1: I must have missed your posts. There is some good information to be found in various places. Give me a few minutes and I shall try and put together a few links that may be of service to you.

I'm goin ta pick yer pocket bro and why not make it TRIPLE or nothin ya little snot-nosed twerp.

My number

Where's your buddy Big Trader?

It seems that two things conspired to drive up Platinum prices: Russian supply problems and Japanese jewlery demand ( waiting for russian supplies ) . Recent assent and descent related to these problems and now are resolved in that Russia is coming through with their Platinum commitments to Japan and Japanese demand is waning drasticly.

All:

Did anyone notice that only a few minutes before the Comex open silver was nearing the $5.00 mark. Then the massive plunge in gold seemed to suck silver down for the ride. The fall in warehouse stocks in silver is starting to get precipitous. The last two days have seen 4 million ounces disappear. If my metals desk is correct in believing that some 80-100 million ounces of silver is 'bedrock' at the Comex, at this pace we will hit effective bottom in under 2 weeks time. Being short Christmas silver may be a very unpleasant experience. John K posted that it would take ~300 billion to buy up all the CB gold. It will take only 750 million to clean out the Comex inventory of silver.

Where is all this silver heading? It looks to be heading out of the USA. If you look at Bart's silver quotes for Europe while the US market is up and running you will see that European and or Asian bids are consistantly higher than the US bid. Silver is becoming an export product. Anyone going for all the marbles would do well to get their toys out of Uncle Sam's backyard. They probably realize that in a pinch, Sam may not play quite by the rules. This has happened before.

????

!

1 ) Why then did Hashimoto threaten to sell US SECURITIES and buy gold?

2 ) What will be the new world reserve currency once the dollar is hyper- inflated to zero or devalued? E-gold, gold itself or nuclear weapons?

Platinum 1: Here is a start. Could not connect with two very good sites to get addresses, will post them later. When?

http://www.connecti.com/~gpgi/index.html

http://www.cpmgroup.com/whyplatinum.html

http://www.usagold.com

http://www.monex.com

http://www.gpgi.com/experts.htm

http://www.ipmi.org/bgcp0115.htm

Niner, no problem, except you are right. KITCO IS GETTING WACKY. There is a lot of imposers, lot of intentional misinformation, etc. I think that lot of time there are attempts to destroy a credibility of information on this forum and looks like lately this trend is growing a lot.

The Russians are very foxy. Great negotiators. Know how to start with nothing and end up with half of what you've got. Great chess players also.

1

a

and now for a little butt-kickin$$$$$$$$$$gO GoLd

Hi 1

b

GCH,

1 ) Why then did Hashimoto threaten to sell US SECURITIES and buy gold?

He will do both, but not in order or in amounts supposed. The BOJ is buying
gold now , much more than assumed. They will sell US debt but only after a
rising oil price runs the US$ thru the roof. Even then it will be as minor currency
management!

2 ) What will be the new world reserve currency once the dollar is hyper-
inflated to zero or devalued? E-gold, gold itself or nuclear weapons?

I dont know, but we will all find out!

Stock markets are all going to crash. Countries going broke. Society
breakdown. Revolutions, wars. Tell me has anyone thought to go and
tell the King the sky is falling?

The market finished the week precisely as called for in last weekend's calls. Equities up approx. 2% on the week, confirming the weekly gain prediction. Gold was of course slaughtered confirming the Gold languish and Gold to do poorly precition. Conspiracy and manipulation post rate way up on Kitco confirming that prediction.

My one regret is that I missed making the easiest prediction of all...that Kitcoite's would all be congratulating themselves and patting each other on the back today for forecasting this week's "crash" in equities, and "Rise" in the Gold price. After all, to dyslexic Kitcoites, all market moves are exactly the REVERSE of what they appear.

Personal investment moves. Already gave my moves into the market last weekend. Today I sold Fidelity Magellan and moved it back to cash. Next week may bring instability. Unwilling to keep capital at risk until world markets stabilize. That's it for now......

To Jack, Spudmaster, et al. Plpease continue to amuse me by tellijg everyone how silly and idiotic my predictions and market moves are, being that they continue to be accurate and all. ( Only a FOOL would succeed in his investing and fail to lose money in Gold eh? )

D.A.
What say you about Princeton Forecasts statement that silver stocks being artificially drawn down ( Milhouse 21:46 ) . If this is true then Comex inventory is misleading.

Note that Silver continue to show excellent strength in anticipation of evaporating supplies. Exactly opposite of Gold which used to lead Silver higher. Silver above it's 52 week ago price, Gold as we know...well.... just another 18% loss as usual ( not counting lost purchasing power of course ) . Goooo Silver.

Another.

If BOJ is buying gold they must be the only ones since gold continues to tank.

Little GB, a little more of your chatter, and you will not have to
worry about who will amuse you.
I will personally amuse you, only I am afraid you are not going to
like the way it happens.

November 7, 1997
U.S. Treasury cites SBC Warburg on reporting violations

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Securities firm SBC Warburg Dillon Read Inc. broke rules requiring it to report large holdings of U.S. government securities in auctions in late 1995 and early 1996, the Treasury Department said Friday. Treasury published its exchange of letters with the New York securities firm outlining the violations, but it concluded that they resulted from errors rather than a deliberate attempt to evade Treasury's auction rules. As a result, Treasury said it planned no action against SBC Warburg, which has since taken steps to guard against future violations.

It said SBC Warburg also agreed to take part in a seminar on "the necessity of, and techniques for, compliance with Treasury auction rules." Treasury Secretary John Hawke said SBC Warburg failed to report as required its "net long position" in 12 auctions when its position together with its bid for securities equaled or exceeded $2 billion.

A net long position includes securities with a particular maturity that a firm may acquire in future under derivatives contracts or in when-issued trading after a security comes on the market.

******Hawke noted that SBC Warburg also failed in 24 other instances to correctly indicate its holdings.*******

The reporting requirement is aimed at ensuring that no firm controls 35 percent or more of a particular maturity, which might give it the power to ****manipulate prices.***** The rules were developed after the 1991 Salomon Inc. bidding scandal in which it managed to gain control of nearly all of one two-year issue.

Hawke said that none of SBC Warburg's errors had resulted in its receiving more than 35 percent of a security at any auction in which the violations occurred.

"We have found no indication that the reporting errors reflect a deliberate attempt by SBC to evade Treasury's auction rules," Hawke said. "Rather, the reporting errors appear to have resulted from mistakes by SBC Warburg employees ...."

The SBC Warburg case came to light just before new rules take effect Monday lowering the threshold for reporting net long positions to $1 billion from $2 billion for Treasury bill auctions and $2 billion for Treasury note and bond auctions. Treasury is stiffening the reporting requirement since its auctions are becoming smaller as the government debt shrinks so that it has less need to borrow as much to finance the shortfall between the government's spending and its income.

****** That means a big bidder potentially could corner 35 percent of a security more quickly, so Treasury wants firms to report their holdings at a lower threshhold so it can monitor the bidding more closely.*****