Puetz: I understand your thinking. The forty years you refer to, sad to say, yet I agree with you. Two seperate lives, life experiences and we have arrived at the same conclusion.

Electric metal for me is an excellent way to protect assets and in the event of chaos a keystroke versus a heft of metal is my preferred method. I consider e-gold.com to be a lighthouse in the paper hurricane that has become our financial system.

Thank you for your direct and quick response.

Mooney* ( What IS that little bugger for ( * ) ) I suspect that your Louis the 16th analogy, tidbit, whatever, will prove to be a turning point, a "reflexive" moment in time for gold and silver. As charts can be thrown off by manipulation ( credit to Earl again ) so can the exact timing of your well said story. Ben Franklin was harldy wrong ever ( except for that Turkey for US national bird ) and the manipulators may postpone the truth, but they cannot circumvent it. All you Zombies, eh!? Now back to some very nice single malt. BBAHAW ( Be Back After Hangover and Work, ( UGH! ) ) BTW, What the H**l do you mean real Gold Mine!@$#$ ( ) ( ) !

Puetz: I dont want a "confrontation". I agree with just about everything you say, except for your timing. You're gonna be right---but not in time to save the December puts, IMO.

European citizens are allowing their CB's before EMU finalization or EU Standard setting to sell gold suddenly, No Noise there, what gives ?

November 8, 1997
WEEKAHEAD-Japan stocks likely to droop, recovery
TOKYO, Nov 9 ( Reuters ) - Japan stocks are likely to slip further this week, with few factors on the horizon likely to help the key benchmark rise from its lowest levels in more than two years, brokers said.

"The next support level is seen at 15,500, but the Nikkei average is basically on its way to revisiting the post-bubble economy low in the vicinity of 14,000," one broker said. On Friday, the 225-share Nikkei average plunged 4.22 percent or 697.51 points to 15,836.36, its fourth-largest point loss this year and the lowest close since July 6, 1995. On October 31, it ended at 16,458.94.

The downdraft was led by relentless selling of banking-sector issues.

The package will be based on the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's second batch of proposals due out around November 14.

"If the stock market keeps falling, fears of a meltdown in the financial system will increase," Nikko's Takada said. "If the fears increase, the government may feel compelled to do something to jump-start the economy."
But even if the Nikkei average were to manage a bounce, brokers said it could be short-lived due to seasonal factors.

"Foreign investors close their books for the year-end in December and they will definitely move to cash in on some of their yen-based assets," said a trader at a second-tier brokerage. Brokers said, due to intermittent buying by government-steered public funds seeking to cushion the fall in share prices, potential buyers were sticking to the sidelines in anticipation of more declines once that source of support dries up.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/JAPAN-STOCKS-OUTLOOK.html

This consistent Devaluing Yen will only make Jap Holdings abroad bigger in Yen terms

Panda:Your Saturday 10:08 reference Democracy vs. Constitutional Republic: Right on!

Dittos MPC and your 10:48 on the same subject. Thought I was the only one that had noticed.

Interesting to note that our boy Bill was out courting the perverts again on Saturday. There is nothing "gay" about it.....

Mr. Puetz: Always interesting to read your comments.

A.Goose: You're right. You did over-load me. I have a short attention span. I usually don't read postings over 20 or 30 lines. That's why I try to brief and to the point myself.

One point where I do agree with LGB is on the idea of market manipulation and conspiracy theories. Most individuals and institutions act in this own self interest. If it's in the interest of a government ( for the sake of its survival ) to keep the gold price down and to keep stocks up -- they will do so.

I recognize the reasons why governments around the world want stocks and bonds to stay high, and why they want the gold price to stay low. But wanting and being able to produce are 2 different things. All governments presently operate on a dis-honest fiat-credit monetary system. If too many people lose confidence in this system, the system and the governments will collapse. The governments will do everything possible to maintain confidence and keep investors away from gold.

But the basic truth is these governments run a dis-honest monetary system. They provide credit at below-market interest rates. They cheat savers. It's no mystery why people have stopped saving in the US, and why we must borrow from overseas to maintain our standard-of-living.

There are enough smart and thinking investors in the world to take advantage of this situation. Even though they are few, as a group, they slowly convert the worthless paper in gold and silver. At some point, the supply ( and credit-worthiness ) of the paper becomes too great for the dwindling supply of gold and silver.

The focus of the study should not be on conspiracy theories, but on when government attempts to hold the gold-price down have failed. I believe we have reached that point. My key arguement is the alarming rate at which financial paper is failing. Bankruptcies, defaults, and delinquencies have been rising at an alarming rate. And now, stock markets and currencies are collapsing around the world. What further evidence do we need?

November 8, 1997
Businessman surrenders in God's banker case
ROME ( AP ) - A Roman businessman turned himself in Saturday after being charged in connection with the death of a financier known as God's banker.

In a case that drew worldwide attention, Roberto Calvi's body was found
hanging under a London bridge in 1982, after a major banking scandal. A
London coroner's jury could not decide if it was suicide or murder.

Flavio Carboni surrendered to police even though "we are convinced that
Calvi committed suicide," said Renato Borzone, Carboni's lawyer."We will try to demonstrate this with more details in the near future," he said, adding he intended to file a motion for Carboni's release.

Carboni was arrested on a charge of conspiracy to commit homicide.
Authorities have not disclosed details of the allegation.
Banco Ambrosiano, in which the Vatican bank held a significant stake,
collapsed in 1982 when it could not collect $1.3 billion US in loans made
to shell companies in Latin America.

Bank chairman Calvi, known as God's Banker for his close ties to the
Vatican, was found dead days later.

No drinkin on kitco....Go bears and gold!

HAHA I turned the midnight hour, a first after many months. The previous is in reference to my beloved BCMD, of course. I don't know if you noticed, but my reply, "Consider it done" ,was in reference to my posting it on the stock channel the ( day before ) ! Ohyes! SHoot, gold stocks are dead!!! There ain't nobody there on the stock channel but coin buyers and sellers. Good luck tryin'to get anybody on line there, they are all dead or gone. Market sucked 'em up like a good shop vac! I'm sorry, but the charts and TA ( and not just my humbled talents, either ) say this stock can hit 9+ which equals a ten bagger. It held and went up THIS WEEK, when even the best "blue chip" gold stocks took a hit. Sometimes simple is smart if you read the flow. Somebody with bucks is in the know. Appropriate disclaimers apply, esp. as concerns those who value an occasional single malt beverage. BTW, THIS is the last time ( 'last' time forgot to put "Second" in ) , I mention BCMD, until we hit two anyway, which with a two bagger, gives me your buddy Hepcats rights [2-2-2-2-2-] in this market!
( Grin thingy )

Listening to Bob Brinker, delayed several hours because of football game.
He's still fairly bullish on equities. Bob, if you're listening, I parted company with you several weeks ago. Just can't remain bullish in the current environment....

I'm burned out for the night. I didn't get 1/2 of the things said I had hoped for. I'll try to finish sometime tomorrow. In any case, I'll read all comments and questions between now and then, and try to answer. If I've overlooked a question, repeat it, and I'll try to answer tomorrow.

I apologize for not answering all questions. I simply don't have time to. In any event, I agree with Nick -- the stock market will trend lower this week. When the DJIA breaks below the 6900-7100 support area, Katie bar the door. The greatest financial crash of all-time will have arrived!!!

So Asia melts down and takes the United States with it. DJIA down 50%. Fed monetizes the debt in concert with other Central Banks after they close all the exits ( gold ) . Massive shift in wealth from the rich to the poor ( savers vs borrowers ) . Inflation runs at 30%, everyone runs to put money in hard assets. No gold above ground available for sale as CB tricked us all out of it ( bad modern investment ) EXCEPT FOR A SMALL ENCLAVE OF FORWARD THINKING GOLDBUGS ( Kitcoites ) . Gold rises to $1,500/oz for a sustained period.

Now, would you sell your gold for currency in this situation? What do you do with it? I suppose having made 500% on your investment would allow you to risk some inflation ( deflation of held money ) . I bet you would not feel like buying any government obligations at this point. You could buy other hard assets like real estate but they should have risen with gold.

Example: If everyone is given $1,000 then there is no net increase in wealth, just inflation. If you are given $1,000 alone then you are now better off. If everyone but you loses $1,000 then you are also better off.


Is being a goldbug like the above analogy where everyone else loses but you, yet you do not gain except by their misery?

Steve

Puetz: My comment is " how bout dem Boilermakers"...

themmissinglink: almost, except, in the scenario you describe, one would expect a general comodity price deflation. The best hedge against deflation is gold, my precious, other asset classes will fall in relation to gold, and there will be optimum times to exchange, well, you know the rest...to everything change, change, change, there is a season...

Aurator, you said "one would expect a general comodity price deflation". Why? If the Fed monetizes the debt by printing money to buy back Treasuries then the dollar price of everything will go up, right? This is inflation.

Besides, if there is price deflation for whatever reason, won't gold prices decrease in correlation? How is this a hedge?

Steve

Yer damn right they can be yawn---speakin of which----what the hell am I still doing up?? Nite Bro...

This could shake things up on Monday:BAGHDAD, Iraq ( CNN ) -- A
top Iraqi official says his country
will not hesitate to shoot down
American U-2 reconnaissance
planes if they fly over Iraqi
airspace.

Flights of those U.S.-piloted
planes, conducting surveillance
missions for the United Nations, are expected to resume Monday. Good night Aurator and all kitcoites~~~~~~~~~~

Missinglink OK, to answer the easy one first, Roy Jastram in his book the Golden Constant produced a table showing gold increased in ( purchasing ) value during commodity price deflation. ( vice versa in inflation. ) Some months ago April 30 23:34 I reproduced it here, and I'm not sure exactly how to get it to you. ALL Perhaps someone else could help?

As to deflation, being the outcome, I am not certain, and could not argue with an economics major, it is just a hunch. overproduction of manufactured good, commodity price volatility, higher stock inventories, bankruptcies increasing, liquidity ratios deteriorating...., banks looking over their shoulders...

If all you goldbugs want to see how I sell gold for $1,000/oz TODAY, go to http://www.familyjeweler.com

FOCUS-Seoul stocks plunge on financial crisis
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971108/korea_markets_4.html

Elliot wave theory
http://kyyppari.hkkk.fi/~k20261/ewt.html

The devaluation of the worlds monies and the subsequent liquidity crunch forces everyone to redeem U.S. Treasuries for dollars. The Fed prints up the money for the buyback figuring the money will stay out there in the other countries to be used as the new world currency.

This after the collusion between Australian CB, Swiss CB, and the fed to kill off gold. With gold out of the way, Greenspan works hard to bring down the equities markets to help in the buyback of U.S. Treasuries from disenchanted and hard hit foreign investors.

Clinton bungles along making bad trade deals with or without fast track so that more goods enter the country than leave in order to prop up our trading partners.

Steadily, the dollar supplants all other currencies and Americans keep on consuming cheap foreign goods and losing jobs.

You think Rockefeller might benefit from this?

Morning ALL {:-}}
A quick scroll says you're [still?] up and about! Have just printed out 21:-23:59 to read and try to catch up, and see A GOOSE@23:52 - posts never seen from ANOTHER & JOHNK . JOHN K looks jolly good, but will have to sit and try to understand.

JTF, NICK, ALL: What do you think ANOTHER means when he says "a soon NOT TO TRADE rising gold market' ?

MARKET MANIPULATION

I believe that it would be in the Fed's best interest to:
Have a room full of computers, and a room full of computer lurkers ( 100x100 ) .
To track and monitor all the major investment chat rooms.

Some of the minds, that inhabit these rooms, are attached to some of the best traders, who have the best insight, into what is really happening.

To be able, to gain the knowledge, of some of the best traders,
To help them control, and manipulate the markets.
Would be invaluable, to the 'Powers who be".

The way they are playing, these markets, at the moment,
And the timing of their concerted moves.
Leads me to believe, that they are currently monitoring these sites.

The way that I've seen this occurring is:
When we had taken a big fall, that is then bought back up,
Buy pushing the PREM, and buying the largest markets caps.
Gaining the most leverage, within the major indices.
This was done, 8 minutes before the President,
Gave his speech to the nation.

Also, when the indices go into a narrowing swing pattern,
That we commonly call a wedge.
Breakout of a wedge is critical,
And I've seen the periods, when they push the indices up, at these critical moments.

The timing of these manipulations, has been exquisite,
From a technical/analysis point of view.

If one was lurking at a chat site,
Where they monitor the smart traders,
One would hear these positions, and calls being made,

It's like being at the racecourse,
And having 100 of the best commentators,
Calling the race.
All of them shouting loudly, when a critical junction point, is being reached,
But the sentiment has been gleaned from 100 of the best trading analysts.

To have 100 computer spies, lurking, reading and analyzing,
500 brilliant trading analysts, calling each move,
Then reporting back, to a panel of 100 economic analysts,
Who report to 50 economic advisors,
Who advise the top three decision makers.
These decision makers, then analyze and confer,
After which, the one top decision maker,
Makes the decision, as to whether or not to act.
The YES or NO comes from his lips only.

The - Good Food Pyramid for "MARKET MANIPULATORS"

//---------------------------\\
// the chairman \\
//---------------------------------\\
// 3 executives \\
//---------------------------------------\\
// 50 economic advisors \\
//---------------------------------------------\\
// 100 economic analysts \\
//---------------------------------------------------\\
// 100 spies lurking on chat sites \\
//---------------------------------------------------------\\
//------------------------------------------------------------\\
// 500 brilliant traders & their running commentary \\
//------------------------------------------------------------------\\
// unknowingly part of the food chain \\
//------------------------------------------------------------------------\\



Now we all have a fair idea of the manipulations taking place within the US Markets.
Well I believe that the same is happening within the Gold markets.

There has been an interesting saga, close to home on this subject.
Australia sold 167 tons of gold ( date )
The announcement was made at 0100hrs, Australian Eastern Standard Time,
By the Australian government, when normally all employees have gone home.
The announcement coincided with the closing of the English markets.
The Australian Prime Minister was in USA, for the week prior to the announcement.
Widely rumored that the Reserve bank of Australia, had asked G. Soros to come to Australia
To help support the Australian dollar, for when the public became aware.

Similar events have been happening regards Switzerland's intention to sell their gold.

Most of the recent drops, have been occurring on Fridays.
This is the period, when there is the most fear, within the markets,
As people don't want to go long, over the weekend.

They therefore, push gold down on Fridays, so that come Monday,
When most of the selling in equities is being done,
There is no interest in switching to gold or gold stocks.

In this period of financial volatility.
The last bastion of hope for the US is their bond markets.

A.G. & co. do not want a rush from paper to gold.
They need their money markets to keep their well oiled machines running.
With overseas holders of US paper debt likely to recall their capital, to help their own ailing economies.
The US will need massive amounts of money, to go into bonds to cover this shortfall.
All the money that is being removed from the equities markets, will need to find a new home.
Bonds are a traditional play in a bear market, and this is where they want the money.
With all the global property markets at near highs, with a looming depression.
They will not be an attractive choice of investment.
Gold is at the bottom of its price range and is one of the few under value real assets.
Governments of the world, do not wish for a 'flight to safety' rush, having its effect on gold.
The Governments must at all costs stop, this flight to gold from occurring.


The problem with this sort of "MARKET MANIPULATION",

As much as they try, to drive down the sentiment for gold, the cheaper it becomes,
Therefore, creating demand for gold, which is precisely what,
The "POWERS WHO BE" are trying to avoid.

This contrary approach, is also failing, within the equities markets.
The more they try, the "POWERS WHO BE",
To contain the markets, to stop them from crashing,
The more the volatility is contained.
This volatility, is what is spooking shareholders,
Forcing them to become sellers, out of fear,
For what is about to happen.

These above assertations,
Are why, what is coming, will come.

The more the "POWERS WHO BE",
Try to control these markets,
The more they are creating,
That which they don't want to happen.
IMHO

Allright you Stutz, I been nice to you and now you slander the great LGB by saying I don't understand the monetary system! hey pal, I understand it better than a guy who has made no less than FIVE totally wrong prediction sin just the past 2 months!!

Which reminds my Mon Puetzke, I'd love to read some of your archives sometime. Any newsletters from say January of 1995? 94? 93?? 92???? just LOVE to see what you were saying then my friend.

Now as to your prediction question for coming week, please see my earlier post of 01:32 on 11/8 which was made before your predictions for coming week and in which we ALOMST agree on something!! ( DOW to be lower on the week, though I'm not certain of my call this time and not making any trades around it, just LEANING that way based on Asian activity ) .

MARKET MANIPULATION

I believe that it would be in the Fed's best interest to:
Have a room full of computers, and a room full of computer lurkers ( 100x100 ) .
To track and monitor all the major investment chat rooms.

Some of the minds, that inhabit these rooms, are attached to some of the best traders, who have the best insight, into what is really happening.

To be able, to gain the knowledge, of some of the best traders,
To help them control, and manipulate the markets.
Would be invaluable, to the 'Powers who be".

The way they are playing, these markets, at the moment,
And the timing of their concerted moves.
Leads me to believe, that they are currently monitoring these sites.

The way that I've seen this occurring is:
When we had taken a big fall, that is then bought back up,
Buy pushing the PREM, and buying the largest markets caps.
Gaining the most leverage, within the major indices.
This was done, 8 minutes before the President,
Gave his speech to the nation.

Also, when the indices go into a narrowing swing pattern,
That we commonly call a wedge.
Breakout of a wedge is critical,
And I've seen the periods, when they push the indices up, at these critical moments.

The timing of these manipulations, has been exquisite,
From a technical/analysis point of view.

If one was lurking at a chat site,
Where they monitor the smart traders,
One would hear these positions, and calls being made,

It's like being at the racecourse,
And having 100 of the best commentators,
Calling the race.
All of them shouting loudly, when a critical junction point, is being reached,
But the sentiment has been gleaned from 100 of the best trading analysts.

To have 100 computer spies, lurking, reading and analyzing,
500 brilliant trading analysts, calling each move,
Then reporting back, to a panel of 100 economic analysts,
Who report to 50 economic advisors,
Who advise the top three decision makers.
These decision makers, then analyze and confer,
After which, the one top decision maker,
Makes the decision, as to whether or not to act.
The YES or NO comes from his lips only.

The - Good Food Pyramid for "MARKET MANIPULATORS"

//-----------------------------------\\
// the chairman \\
//--------------------------------------------\\
// 3 executives \\
//----------------------------------------------------\\
// 50 economic advisors \\
//------------------------------------------------------------\\
// 100 economic analysts \\
//--------------------------------------------------------------------\\
// 100 spies lurking on chat sites \\
//----------------------------------------------------------------------------\\
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\\
// 500 brilliant traders & their running commentary \\
//---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\\
// unknowingly part of the food chain \\
//----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\\



Now we all have a fair idea of the manipulations taking place within the US Markets.
Well I believe that the same is happening within the Gold markets.

There has been an interesting saga, close to home on this subject.
Australia sold 167 tons of gold ( date )
The announcement was made at 0100hrs, Australian Eastern Standard Time,
By the Australian government, when normally all employees have gone home.
The announcement coincided with the closing of the English markets.
The Australian Prime Minister was in USA, for the week prior to the announcement.
Widely rumored that the Reserve bank of Australia, had asked G. Soros to come to Australia
To help support the Australian dollar, for when the public became aware.

Similar events have been happening regards Switzerland's intention to sell their gold.

Most of the recent drops, have been occurring on Fridays.
This is the period, when there is the most fear, within the markets,
As people don't want to go long, over the weekend.

They therefore, push gold down on Fridays, so that come Monday,
When most of the selling in equities is being done,
There is no interest in switching to gold or gold stocks.

In this period of financial volatility.
The last bastion of hope for the US is their bond markets.

A.G. & co. do not want a rush from paper to gold.
They need their money markets to keep their well oiled machines running.
With overseas holders of US paper debt likely to recall their capital, to help their own ailing economies.
The US will need massive amounts of money, to go into bonds to cover this shortfall.
All the money that is being removed from the equities markets, will need to find a new home.
Bonds are a traditional play in a bear market, and this is where they want the money.
With all the global property markets at near highs, with a looming depression.
They will not be an attractive choice of investment.
Gold is at the bottom of its price range and is one of the few under value real assets.
Governments of the world, do not wish for a 'flight to safety' rush, having its effect on gold.
The Governments must at all costs stop, this flight to gold from occurring.


The problem with this sort of "MARKET MANIPULATION",

As much as they try, to drive down the sentiment for gold, the cheaper it becomes,
Therefore, creating demand for gold, which is precisely what,
The "POWERS WHO BE" are trying to avoid.

This contrary approach, is also failing, within the equities markets.
The more they try, the "POWERS WHO BE",
To contain the markets, to stop them from crashing,
The more the volatility is contained.
This volatility, is what is spooking shareholders,
Forcing them to become sellers, out of fear,
For what is about to happen.

These above assertations,
Are why, what is coming, will come.

The more the "POWERS WHO BE",
Try to control these markets,
The more they are creating,
That which they don't want to happen.
IMHO

Miro you asked a question re Asian market moves, and indeed, I did move 5% of my MMF into FOSFX this week and right back out again Friday when it became apparent that the crises there will not be resolved by the Indonesian bank bailout and other efforts of IMF & others to stem the tide of capital movement. I now remian on teh sidelines in cash for the indefinite future until the Domino effect dissipates. I a little in teh Asian move but made a much larger gain than the loss in Fidelity Magellan this week during the "crash" UP 2%

Based on your parameters Nick ( Brilliant analysis on best sites etc. ) those Govt. site spies sure won't be lurking THIS site mate! Night all.

Sorry about the double posts.

LGB
At this important point in time, there should be more serious reflection,
On what is happening within these markets.
It is well worth reading and digesting comments from both sides of the fence.

It is a bit premature to be patting oneself on the back,
Before the event has even taken place.

Besides that, you said you would refrain, from these bad habits of yours.

Intelligent discussion is what we all come here for.

There was a popinjay in this chat room before.
Who said he knew all.
He gained no respect from me at all.

Communication not dissention is required.

Sometimes I just have to reason that you are just a smart plant.

G'day colleen. Hope you've bought that 2nd 1/4. I've read most of ANOTHER'S posts. I find it rather difficult to believe when people on this site talk $1000-$2000+ gold. My heart says "great" but my trader's head says "what a load of bs". Can you imagine what would happen if gold went to say $350 in the next 6 months?? Aussie miners for one would be selling forward everything they hadn't yet mined for the next ten years. OK -- let's say the oil/gold thing is true. Oil zooms -- consumption will then fall off a cliff, marginal wells will be put back into action and before you know it oil will be in a glut situation. I personally can't see such a radical move UP in the price of gold. Indians, Chinese and Arabs would massively increase their wealth, non-gold holding westerners would be poorer as their paper assets devalue and they have no fall-back position. If the price of gold stays in the $300-$400 range, colleen, and the rand, S.A. shares etc. devalue by 25%-- then you are way ahead with your stash. When you buy gold you are buying an investment in the US$$ and a store of value in emergencies. My gold bought in the $318-$325 range is way ahead in Aussie dollars even with the price of gold at $310. Consider your gold a hedge against your own currency and against bad times. If the gold zoomers are right then you will make back a little of what you lose on everthing else. ANOTHER'S "NOT TO TRADE" comment may have something to do with the legal gold market being shut down in his scenario. In that case you may be asked to hand in your Krands at the government's request. Would appreciate some other comments on that one. Knock, knock, knock. "Excuse me maam, I'm from the Government Gold Confiscation Committee. This letter says I am allowed to collect ALL of your gold bullion, coins, etc. You shall, of course, be compensated in 'new rands' to their full value at the gov't price of $35/oz".

Well said.

To: Coleen

Re: Hello. Hope you enjoy FT site; Pauls stocks

Lost my connection Friday, so I had no opportunity to respond to ref.: items!
For Pauls stock, why not provide a Decision Window into which you
plug various viable options ( dependent upon Pauls age ) .

Should make for an interesting and spirited family confab!
Regards.

Nick@C>Nick@C
Like I said prior to last weeks debacle,

Nick@C holding your shorts I hope, they were cheap on friday.
It's almost like our market thinks we're down enough - HA HA HA

It looks like down from here.
http://www.concentric.net/~sellnow/spxfridy.gif

Another big down on monday, then a tecnical rebound for the suckers, and then comes the big drop as the real selling begins.

I see this market rolling over on itself like when a tidal wave hits the shore.
Out at sea when the wave is coming it is 6 inchs high but travelling at 500 kph.
When it hits the continental shelf it builds up it's momentum.
But the true power lies when it strikes the shores,
100ft of pure power, massive, omnipotent, smashing all with'in it's reach.
The intensity of the selling to come will exceed all expectations.

To be a master fisherman one must learn to read the sign.
So be it to for the chart readers, one must learn to read the sign
The sign is there, for all to see.
It is there now, today and before.
The denial will be intense.
But the wave has started.
It formed at sea weeks ago and has now just started rearing up the continental shelf.
The people who have foresight are out.
And the people on the shore can just make out the top of the wave.
The tall viewers can see what is coming and are moving.
The small viewers can only see a small wave as yet.
And don't understand what the fuss is about.
They will soon. All will soon.

Sniff the air, feel the feelings, and obey the gut.
To rationalise while looking down the beach is folly.

I used to smell prawns when I was a master fisherman.
The senses had to be sharp to win.

And I smell this to be coming.
I read so much sign now, that I know this is to be.
The distance from the shore, that this behemoth is, is beyond me.
Is of no consequence, as I reside far from the beach.
Where many are joining me.
To look back in amazement.
Awe.

IMHO

Thanks for that, Nick. Yes I did- another 1/4!

Scary thought- the confiscation of gold by government-and if ever a country were likely to do it 'when Mandela goes', this is it!

Would you hand over what you had, Nick? Or lie, and hide it?
There were stories in the 70's & 80's of yachts sailing out of Table Bay with their hulls lined with gold. Those who feared for SA's future.

Thanks also for the Elliot Wave site-one can at least learn from that one as it gives the rules! Remember, I'm starting from scratch!!

Have this feeling that I'm learning at too late a stage to be effective in the markets. Need all the help I can get! I'm sure there must be a few lurkers here like me. who may be shy to come forward and ask questions & make possibly naive comments. Thank you ALL for bearing with us.

Space Weather Outlook


SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS
FLARE FROM REGION 8100 AS IT DEPARTS THE VISIBLE DISK.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. IF AN
INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVES AT THE EARTH FROM THE 6 NOV X9/2B FLARE
AND ASSOCIATED CME, THEN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY INTENSIFY
BRIEFLY. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT SHOULD END TOMORROW.
http://www.sel.noaa.gov/today.html

To: Colleen

My apologies for misspelling your name.

JTF,NICK,STEVE,COLLEEN,TED....OLDMAN,....RJ....DONALD..,
Looked liked next week should be the big day from japan,korea nad hongkong,...many negative news around the local and mandarin medias news.not to missed the blackhorse too,TAIWAN...the currencies and stock were hitted hard due to inner political misleading.
Still,the GOLD is the best around here....30 /35 % profit after the devalueation of the $ !
.....the retail/wholesale,both terrible.....
.....many goldshops been shut down in bangkok,thailand and heard few around malaysia.......3 more months will be the more obvious to the markets,both the politic policy and the economy......
here one JAPAN STOCK MARKET PAGE: http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/
..
..TIME TO OFFFFF....

Rash of earthquakes running along the west coast:
http://pubweb.parc.xerox.com/map/lat=14.48/lon=153.08/ht=107.10/wd=392.77/grid/color/mark=28.21,142.63,6,8;46.53,-119.70,6,4;41.95,12.80,6,0;46.79,-7

Or http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov

colleen--wrong Nick--not to worry--too damned many Nicks 'round here anyway!! Would I hand over my gold?? "What gold???? Don't know what yer talking about. Here I've been sweatin' away all day layin' the new keel on my sailboat and all you guys can do is pull out a fancy piece of paper 'bout "confiscatin' gold". c. -- I buy from places that do not know me. I do not exist. There is no paper trail. There is however a cybertrail right here. Will cross that bridge when I come to it. Other Nick's post about THEM listening in to US. They ain't that smart. Nor are they concerned about the lunatic fringe gold bugs of the world. They've got bigger concerns-- like explaining to middle class retirees why their pension funds, superannuation accounts and 401k's? have NO money in them after tshtf!!! "Now maam, get up against that wall while we search your house!! Maam, put that gun down, maam,MAAM..."

Hello SDRer,
Thanks for that idea! -yes, it will make for lively discussion here! I see I will have to have 'do' to get them ALL together, so that the other 3 can benefit from the good advice.

Can't quite make out your ref. to FT/Paul ? Did you make a post that I lost? Sorry if that's the case....I've been very busy [without malice]jamming up pop-servers! Please could you re-post? Thanks on advance.

Best Regards- It's good to have you here.

It might be worth watching, Popocatepetl Volcano, Central Mexico
Last time those earthquakes went down the West Coast, Popocatepetl blew up.

Global Volcanism Program: Preliminary Notices of Volcanic Activity:

http://www.nmnh.si.edu/gvp/gvn/activity/index.htm>http://www.nmnh.si.edu/gvp/gvn/activity/index.htm
http://www.nmnh.si.edu/gvp/

Nick@C- Sorry, sorry! {:-]] Thanks for insight on currency value at time of buying, if I read it right? I have only been looking at relative spot-price, and the current value. Could one take an analogy to a good residental ppty bought x years ago, where business rights can now be obtained, and is therefore saleable for a large amount, even in the current depressed property market?

Nick, it's good to hear you're lining your hull! I'm a gardener....

Nick@ Aussie: Thanks for Solar post....would this fit into Crooks's theory, do you think?

Nick ( @Aussie ) -- I know this is heresy, mate, but I am seriously thinking of reselling the puts I rebought last week. I made muchos dineros on the first lot as ( no brag--just fact ) I have a very good sense of timing on MOST occasions. Got the absolute top price on the two major bank puts after mini-crash day. I have been burned by puts in the past. It HURTS when they expire worthless. I have therefore become a little wiser and a LOT less greedy!! I do NOT like holding Dec. puts right now. They scare the shorts out of me as a 6-week Xmas induced euphoria could see them expire doughnada!! You know the market is going down. I know the market is going down. Have you seen all the movies where the evil monster is killed deader than a doornail only to have it rise ONE MORE TIME to confront the hero. I don't wanna be a dead ( poor ) hero, mate. This markets gotta be buried 60 feet under, mate 'cause 6 ain't enough. It keeps rising from the dead!! In the meantime I'll probably take a nice little one week profit and hope to buy my Xmas presents nice and cheap while everyone is celebrating the reprise of the markets over the holiday season. If I'm wrong, I'll miss an opportunity. There will be plenty more. I'm gonna ride this sucker down ( and up ) for all it's worth. I'm gonna see a move from 8 to 5 and I'm gonna make 10. That's the kind of 'rithmetic I like!!!

Nick@A: Hello!!
If Crooks is right about a "ubiquitous cosmic force, and quantized pulses in economic trading and economic activities' , what would these earthquakes and this Space Weather data mean in the scheme of things?

Dang it Nick@Oz. Tsunamis, solar flares, volcanos, market meltdown, global depreciation. Big crisis 'round here is that my 13 y.o. daughter didn't hand in her English assignment and we got a letter from the school. Sort of puts things in perspective, doesn't it??

No matter how fine the beverage, tis black coffee that wins in the end. Off to Sunday slavery.

Nick@C
Yes I agree, I will be taking profits myself this time.
Still holding my positions, bought Aug thu Sept.
I just have a feeling, that you might be taking you profits, close to the bottom come Tuesday.

Just a feeling.

Colleen
Yes, I do.
It really surprises me how events just seem to fall into place.

The week before Popocatepetl blew up last time.
I was watching the earthquakes move down the West Coast.
They started at the Aleutians, then moved in concert, down the coast, till they hit Mexico.
Then Popocatepetl exploded.
Looks similar this time, but I haven't been watching this series up to date.

The three hurricanes seen last week, - more to come?
The incoming rain Jin talks about, - how much this time?
The earthquake activity, - soon potentially volcanic?
The solar flare flux, - effects on the masses?
The El Nino activity, - graphed, it is already larger than ever before and still rising?
Hussein getting stroppy with USA, - potential war?
The falling apart of the financial systems, - how much worse will they get?
The falling apart of the financial markets, - how much further to fall?
The falling apart of global economic growth, - depression?
The pivotal positioning that is occurring in the soft and hard commodities, - inflation?
The changing of the heavens, - astrological influences, I'll leave Mike S. to explain what is happening there.

With all this flux and chaos walking in lock-step together,
I see great reason to suspect big changes very soon - imminently.

The flux and chaos of the masses will soon mirror
The flux and chaos of this fair planet Earth.

WEEK AHEAD: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971108/markets_asia_outlook_2.html
H.TRADING

Nick@Oz -- I always follow a simple rule. Say you've got a bigtime profit on a position. Sell half -- you've paid for your position and then some , AND you're still in the game. If what you expected actually happens then the 1/2 you have left will make you heaps. If it goes against you, you break even. You are still in the game. Nick-- never forget-- it is all a big game. We have already got too much of everything!! Westerners are dying from too much of everything-- food, drink, stress, possessions-- you name it !!! Sometimes wish I could be left on an isolated beach with a pocket knife and a good ( tough ) woman!! I treat the markets with a big grain of salt, mate. If I win I'm gonna have more of what I've already got too much of. If I lose-- where's that beach???

Nick-

That's quite a scenario to contemplate!

Crooks does not have any knowledge of astrology, I believe. His work is based on past and current scientific data.

Did you see that 'serendipitously, the breakhthrough came whilst investigating the workings of the most sensitive biodynamic transponder ever evolved: the HUMAN BRAIN'?! -P2/5 The QT introduced.

Makes one think.

Apparently Crooks has a chart approx 4 1/2 metres long! Would that we had access to that in it's totality...

Have you been able to find Cosmic Wave Flux's -'interstellar plasma waves/ quantized destabilising pulses'?-

'clear signature , the 0.618 quantum rhthym' in your own charts yet?

A good Sunday sleep so I can assimilate all this new knowledge!

See you tomorrow. Good luck to ALL.

Special to JIN- Good to hear you..we are in the middle of a heat wave here- a sign of things to come, no doubt. Hope your monsoon rains don't do too much damage. Jin, Why should gold shops be closed down?? Out of business, or closed for the week-end? Take care.

South-east Asia weather
http://www.ece.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/globellast.gif

USA weather
http://www.earthwatch.com/SKYWATCH/images/IRUS3D.jpg

Super cyclone Keith 1/11/97
El Nino baby number ???
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/COOL4.GIF
From:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html

Jin
The article you last posted,
Points to very tight lock-step formation coming this week.

Not trying to be a doom and gloomer,
Just tring to put the events together.

Here is the next cyclone forming off Mexico.
Spawned from the heart of the El Nino.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/eastpac/images/xxirg9.GIF

Plus there is another small one forming in the Western Pacific.

A worldly view. Try panning and zooming on your part of the earth.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth

Just out of curosity, what time is it in NZ right now?

Gizmo -- It is 10:23 pm here on the east coast of Oz and either 12:23am or 1:23am in N.Z. Don't know if they're on daylight savings time or not. Don't want to wake the sheep up too early, do they. Kiwi sheep are frightened enough as it is!!

Japanese dealers hesitant to open new platinum positions.

http://cnnfn.com/markets/bridge/2200.1.html

Nick, that's terrific data you're giving us! Thank you. Now I have new Folders opening as well as the numerous bookmarks from the last month.

I went into Cyclone/Typhoon Keith. Of course, I have no idea of how to 'read' it...all those embroidery lessons!!

But it looks to me like a .618 signature? And the small one- a .382?
Could you or JTF be able to check to see if any correlation

You're not a doom & gloomer at all. Your posts are reasoned and balanced as anyone can see. Glad you're pulling it all together for us. Thanks.

Animated El Nino Sea water temperature
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~map/maproom/text/climate_pages/sst_olr/sst_anim.shtml

Plus another cyclone forming off East US

See Economy/Finance
Shaky stocks erode latent profits at Japanese banks

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/asiaset.html

Keynesian Economics

index page
http://csf.Colorado.EDU/mail/pkt/
search page
http://csf.Colorado.EDU/mail/pkt/glimpse.html
search for "gold"

if banks needed extra reserves perhaps revaluing gold upwards
would be a idea. untill then i sure have nice paper weights.


donald
in watching the xau ratio chart for the last year and half
i put a number of numbers into a spreadsheet.
for one chart i have it generate a ( example ) gold 310
divide by xau 81= 3.82, -2 =1.82, divide by 4 =.455
times 100 =45.5, minus 160= 114.5 now 114.5 with xau 81
makes the chart with the red and blue line so watched.

Israeli stocks are open today. Down 6.41 ( 2.23% )

Bob2: That is a nice site for reference. I bookmarked it. Thanks. Are you talking about the red and blue lines on the Y. Auger chart?

To the Nicks

If you are worried about possible short term recovery of the markets why not just buy a protective covering call on the next big dip ( for some insurance ) . Say SPX500 at 900 or 875. Then sell when and if the big boys ramp it all back up. Any thoughts on this one ?

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971107/politics/stories/indonesia_1.html

Donald
I see the markets correcting as beneficial
The long term trend lines of markets,
Points to an annual 16% growth over time.
We have gone to the excess of over-brought.
We need to correct so that we may go on from here.
This is healthy function over a long period of time.
Unfortunately it is painful in the short term.



M Sun
Smart move - Take out insurance on the current insurance.
There must be a huge ammount of volatility,
Bunched up for that to happen,
Or market manipulation.
I have been watching other option/future traders do just that, last week.
You would need a quick broker with gauranteed access though.
S&P500 option prices
http://www.cme.com/market/prices/r_os.html

Colleen
The humble nautilus shell has the same pattern.
If one was to radiate fibo numbers out,
You would come up with a pattern like thus.

I have watched the world,
Hang with bated breath,
For where the mighty Dow moved.

Now I see this focus, extending outwards,
Encompassing the Globe.
The Dow, no longer the focus,
Will join with all the other markets,
In a downward spiral.
I feel the East will precipitate, the next rash of fear,
With Europe falling in line,
And the US following - instead of leading.
I doubt that this tide can be turned back.

Sometimes I think that I chat too much.
I spook myself, with what I foresee,
But such is the disease of all who try to prophesize

Puetz said:
The US may try to confiscate gold from its citizens, but if
they do, I'll be the first to try and escape this country with
my gold. I've have no loyalty the the US. Especially to the
form it has degenerated to in the last 40 years. With that
said, I doubt the US will try to confiscate gold this time
around. The reason Uncle Sam confiscated gold in 1933-34
was to maintain the gold standard. Citizens were
converting their Dollars for gold. The US Treasury was
losing its gold. Uncle Sam confiscated gold to replenish its
gold stock -- so that it could maintain the gold standard
among central banks throughout the world -- even though it
reneged on its promise to US citizens.

This time, our monetary system has no ties to gold. Thus,
there is no reason to confiscate gold.

Mr Puetz: If gold was to rocket, it would become the
defacto world currency, the arch enemy of ALL modern
goverments fiat paper taxation, and THEY WILL attempt
confiscate gold again, in order to control it. It will become
a contraband ( like drugs ) with very harsh prison sentences
for its posession. If the U.S. outlaws ( again ) gold
ownership, you can bet that at that time most other
countries will follow suit. Where would you go with your
gold? The U.S. has degenerated, and the magic of its
conception IS lost, but it would still be easier to keep your
gold in the U.S. than in some corrupt third world hole. The
only thing between gold becoming a controlled subtance
and money is the physical will ( read militia ) of the people.
Your founding forefathers would weep to see the
complacency of their decendants.....and THEY would
immediatley scream those immortal words........
Lock and load!

ANOTHER: As you mentioned, gold paper is soon to become extinct as the oil prices go ballistic, I was wondering about your thoughts about holding OIL FUTURES/OPTIONS.

An excellent observation from the site posted by Bob2 a while ago. Written on August 12, 1997. ( API = Asset Price Inflation = Stocks )

The problems with "speculation" appear when it creates holding gains or
losses for the asset mass as a whole. API Inflation will bias speculation
towards a "win-only" game, and API deflation will do the opposite. Neither
is just, neither will promote economic efficiency, and -- what is most
important -- it simply doesn't work symmetrically:
Whenever API rises violently, like in the late 1980's, the great
majority the speculators ( who always present themselves as "investors" for
some odd reason ) gain tremendously. API inflations create the Donald Trumps
and all those kids starting out with two empty millions and end up with
twenty by doing absolutely nothing productively. All the working people who
are endowed with little more than two empty hands do not fare well by
watching these buildups of fortune and the excesses in lifestyles coming
with it. The kids get the message: honest work doesn't pay, coupon-clipping
does. Victorian and Protestant values of work and thrift are wrecked; in
short the whole moral foundation of our society is undermined.
Now, when the crash eventually comes, and the API plunges, you will not
see the Donald Trumps crawling in the gutter asking for quarters and dimes.
It is not the two-empty-million youngsters who have sleepness nights because
they are afraid of loosing, or have lost their job, and can't cash up the
next mortgage coming on. No, all that is for other people to do. The Trumps
and the others will be safely bailed out by our dear "lender of last
resort", forwarding the bill for "financial reconstruction" to the
taxpayers, more and more of which are approaching the gutter stage.
As if this weren't enough, another financial boom sets on immediately
after the swift "financial reconstruction". Taxpayers have bailed them out,
and that apparently means Jacuzzi time again! The speculators, taken as a
whole, have a win-only game, because when they really loose, the State has
to bail them out to prevent complete disaster.
I guess I don't have to say much more than this in order to provide a
fairly good picture of "what is so damaging about speculation" and why asset
prices need stabilisation.

Cmax: "Assalamu Alaikum" = Peace be with you

tolerant1 said: Electric metal for me is an excellent way to protect
assets and in the event of chaos a keystroke versus a heft of metal is
my preferred method. I consider e-gold.com to be a lighthouse in the
paper hurricane that has become our financial system.

Under civilized conditions and a law biding goverment, I would agree
with you......but the goverment is the principal economic criminal of
the U.S., and their laws are meant to keep YOU in line, not THEM.
So the house already has dealt a loaded hand against you. When gold
does take off, it will become the worlds defacto currency, and in the
name of National Security, all of the greedy gold hoarders will be
ordered by Executive decision and public opinion to turn over their
gold savings. As much as I like the E-gold in spirit, I am afraid that
the FIRST place the gov will look for gold is in the E-gold handlers,
and bank safe deposit boxes.

It seems to me the future legal world currency MUST be E-gold, but
only AFTER all the goverments of the world have confiscated the
majority of gold in private hands first.....else risk losing control over
the taxation of your population ( so easily controlled when the gov has
all your income/expenses as electronic bytes on THEIR computers ) if
there is enough gold on the black market to be used as a currency. In
all black markets, the item being controlled ALWAYS increases
heavily in price, and as was said in Jurrasic Park: Life always finds a
way. ALL free or semi-free markets are essentially living beings.

No, I think that AT THIS MOMENT, the govs and their repective
CBs are planning HOW to control YOUR present and future gold
wealth when gold DOES become the defacto world currency, as it will be the key to the future power structure. Their main fear is that there is too much ( for their comfort ) gold in private hands that will give it a critical mass so that it may be used as currency.

Whether or not the govs are able to confiscate this gold from private
hands, will be they key to tomorrows goverments. When markets
implode this time, there WILL be a paradigm shift, and it WILL
revolve around the control of gold.

It is still my humble opinion to stay away from bullion and buy old US circulated gold coins if one is after bullion...cost a little more..but then again during the last gold drop..these did not decline as much as bullion...and in the the next up move they probably will go up faster..witness how touigh it is right now to buy US circulated gold coins..hard to find..no one is selling at this level

Sheik Abu Bekr al-Rashid:
Thank you for the kind reply.....I was afeared that "Assalamu
Alaikum" was a derrogatory Arab expression, in light of my post being
mis-understood by a Saudi national. I have always had great respect
for the timeless Arab wisdom, and have read most of the classic
works.
Cmax

Nick@Aussie: It is more than beneficial, it is essential. How can you have the glory of a Renaissance without the benefit of the Dark Ages? I would quarrel with your 16% growth rate. Over the centuries it would seem more like 1 or 2% on average.

CMAX: Do not mistake the media views of the United States for those of the people of the United States. There are a great many more independents than they or the government would have you believe. Politically correct thinking lives in the media alone. I find disgust in hatred, those that feed the fires of bigotry should be shunned for the cancer to humanity that they represent, but I do clearly see the seething public at large. It is not pretty to hear the comments muttered in private gatherings. Political double speak is not the language of the masses in the United States.

As to taking gold, the United States will have a revolution on their hands this time around, and it will get ugly. The bureaucrat and grade 12 clerks at best, should beware. The wrath of the American people is not to be trifled with.

Not killing Mr. Iraq has been on the minds of the American people for along time now. Imagine a world where Generals Pat and Mac could have finished the job properly. Taking Russia and China would have put this planet on a much better path then the one of the last 57 years. The human suffering from the stupidity in Washington is not that which can be measured. The tens of millions that have been murdered, suffered and continue to suffer is unforgivable.

The murdering weasel from China that recently visited the United States. The media masked the true measure of America's disgust. Propaganda machines were careful though. This man is the murderer of the students in the square. Americans may be many things, but they appreciate a fair fight, the government has made a tremendous error in this regard by sucking up to this murderer in full view of the American people.

To have that slime, a maggot in the dying after birth of Communism ring the bell at the New York Stock Exchange was a huge mistake. The Governor and Mayor of New York refused to meet with the weasel. Believe me, people across the country noticed that.

The United States is far more polarized today than ever before in my opinion.

I merely make my observations as I see them. My wish is that the United States comes through the obvious hard times ahead in a peaceful manner, where cooler heads prevail but remain firm.

America is a lovely country, the people are a mix from all over the planet and I enjoy the variety of all. Color, religion, culture, diversity, these are the banquet of America and I love to sit at that table where everyone is invited to participate. Good eats for the belly, wide ranging thoughts for the mind, and EVERYONE helps clean up the table, washes and dries the plates and puts them up before they retire to the privacy and freedom created by the walls of their homes.

I hope America does not forget that, as they will be pressed full court in the future.

The saying goes something like, the only way evil can succeed is if good people do NOTHING.

Peace to you, your family and friends.

I really don't know what people find odd about Another's "not to trade" comment. I see that every day in the very small stocks that trade in Canada. If you want to demonstrate this, place an order to buy $10,000 worth of Huldra silver and see what happens.

Even on the NY exchange, the specialists do not allow stocks to trade until they are good and ready.

Anyone here try to sell otc stocks during the 1987 crash?

Anyone trying to trade Dell options?

If a lot of money relative to previous levels trys to move into or out of any market there is a lot of confusion and people stop trading to see what is going to happen.

How about the 550 pt drop in the dow?

Cmax: You said: ( so easily controlled when the gov has
all your income/expenses as electronic bytes on THEIR computers )

You are indeed an optimist. You have assumed that there will be electricity to run these damn things after the currency meltdown. How do you pay the power company workers so they don't have to go out to hunt, fish and farm? Have you seen my recent posts about Vladivostock? Unpaid coal miners are refusing to work without having been paid in months. No coal to run the power plants. Thus they are drawing down the winter stockpile and running the power only a few hours a day. Why would it be any different here?

It seems to me it would be very unlikely that the Rothchilds and other big traders and holders of gold, would give up their control of gold.

Cmax: I'm not sure the rest of the world would follow the US lead to confiscate gold. They didn't follow the US lead in the '30s and don't follow it now--Cuba and Iraqu sanctions being current examples. France may be the most obvious resister to US pressure but most of Europe is not going to try to confiscate citizens gold either.

Is there any evidence that the US actually confiscated gold during the '30s--guns drawn at the citizens door.

Selby- it is my understanding that the gold confiscation in the 30s was voluntary as most Americans turned it in at the banks..of course that generation was a lot less skeptical of government then this one today

Click on the charts
http://satellite.nikkei.co.jp/enews/SPECIAL/market/index.html
Stocks: Nikkei Drops Below 16,000

BY KAZUNARI YOKOTA

TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Stock prices fell sharply Friday, led by plunging bank and securities issues, sending the Nikkei Stock Average to close below 16,000 for the first time since July 6, 1995. Foreign investors sold bank stocks heavily, prompting domestic investors to follow suit. Downside pressure is likely to continue until the government takes some positive steps to shore up the economy, said traders.

The Nikkei index ended the day at 15,836.36, down 697.51 points from Thursday.

Trading opened on a weak tone due to a news report that Bank of Yokohama plans to sell off most of its stock portfolio over the next few years. Further selling was sparked by a comment from Koji Omi, Economic Planning Agency director general, that the announcement of an economic stimulus package might not come until the week after next.

The index held above 16,000 in the morning, but sank below that key level in the afternoon, following a decline in Hong Kong stocks and unwinding of arbitrage positions. All major sectors saw losses, including international blue chips. Thirty-nine issues touched record lows, including Yamaichi Securities and nine smaller brokerage stocks.

TOPIX, the index of all issues on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, ended at a 1997 low of 1,230.07, down 42.17 points. On the Osaka Securities Exchange, December Nikkei futures closed at 15,810, down 620.

"The market is very weak due to pessimistic forecasts about Japan's economy, and investors are eager to see some sign of an effective government economic stimulus program," said Yasuo Ueki, general manager at Nikko Securities Co.

An estimated 508 million shares changed hands Friday on the TSE's first section, compared with 503 million shares Thursday.

Decliners overwhelmed gainers 1,102 to 101, with 72 issues unchanged.


MRCI's End of Day Quotes
http://www.mrci.com/ohlc/index.htm
Options and Futures -
247 financial products available in our Financial Mall:
http://www.site-by-site.com/usa/optfut.htm

Anyone have any idea what percentage of US citizens have a noticable quantity of gold--say 10 or more ozs in coins or bullion?

For a gripping -if fast- view of the "Crash" go here:

http://www.pei-intl.com/CRASH972.HTM

Shortbull: You may well be right about the XAU going down to 70, but I think it will happen much faster than you suppose. We are now in the final capitulation stage of the gold bear. During such periods downward momentum accelerates exponentially until the final bottom is reached.

Tolerant 1:
Thanks for the reply.
But I do not see the average Joe six-pack in the way you describe.....Americans are far too complacent to be mounting another revolution. Mass media has done its job only far too well, and the population is brainwashed into lethargy and sensitizes to
violence......as long as you dont cut of entitlements, welfare, social security, Medicare etc. As long as people have enough food in their belly, the will tolerate TOTAL serfdom, just as the proverbial frog has unknowingly been been boiled in the pot by a slowly rising water temperature. The American of today is not of the mettle of a
Thomas Jefferson. ONLY hunger will push modern people into revolt, and the greedy gold hoarders will be but a microscopic minority when the gov pushes public opine against them to confiscate their gold. You citizens are hungry, because of a certain group of greedy people who pulled out of your stck market, only to hoard the evil gold....they will just say it more eloquently. But unfortunately, the people will not
stand up to protect YOUR gold from confiscation, when THEY ( ex mutual fund holders ) are broke. Only AFTER gold in confiscated, and people are REAL hungry, will the American public take to arms..

The "flight to quality" into the U.S. induced such a tremendous
rise in the US$ that those currencies pegged to the greenback
came under pressure. The underlying assets in Asia and South
America became overvalued. They are not worth as much as
implied by the present value of the US$. It is important to
understand that the flight from the Euro into the US$ is the first
and main reason for the present currency crisis in Asia:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/orpailleur1103.html

Good mornin all....weather: 52 degrees and dense fog....

the recent tightening of the trading range in
the dow as compared to the last 2 months indicates----to me---
another big hit is imminent. the chart formation
is quite bearish; history ( looking back-ward again )
is cyclic, as are the forces driving it. ( nature )

we've just completed a 7 year run of historical proportions,
the run in the other direction will be just as historic in its'
proportions. the only difference.....we're prepared......right????

hey ted------went by 'little darlins' for you: ) ) ) ) ) )


cherokee!; ) driver-of-the-smoke-signal-mobile-for-all-time-----imm------

Morning Ted: It is blue skys and sun here and heading toward the mid 50's. Getting ready to go to the Skydome to watch the Toronto-Montreal Eastern final. Should beat anything that the Blue jays managed and of course far surpass the SuperBore.

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971106/international/stories/russia_1.html

Stalder:
Ah yes....it is these same mega-bank owners ( read gov power ) who
are planning how to confiscate the gold. What better way is there
to increase your own gold wealth, than control everone elses??

Selby:
This is not a question of defiant countries to U.S. policies to not confiscate gold just in
the name of being defiant for political reasons.....no....if gold becomes the defacto world
currency, it will annhililate ALL OTHER fiat currencies, and all other countries would
follow the U.S. lead on gold confiscation, else lose their single most powerful
tool......aquisition of the peoples wealth thru the printing of more fiat currency. They
will follow suit.

I always find it interesting to listen to those who say the people of the US would go to war before allowing the government to take this or that right from them.

All the politicans have to do is confiscate your incomes slowly and its been proven you will do nothing. Fact is, the average working man is not going to go down to the court house and wage war on the government for 1% of his income. It's dosen't matter if the 1% increase
results in a 31% tax rate or an 81% tax rate.

Sorry everyone, but the battle for your freedom was lost back in
( was it 1915 ) when the constitution was changed to allow the government to confiscate your income via the income tax. If you want to blame someone, blame your grand parents, they are the ones who sold you out.

Now you are slaves to your government. Indentured servants.
This will not change. This government will slowly confiscate more and more of your income until you are left with just enough to survive. This along with a new gun law here, and a new gun law there, combined with
newer high tech weapons of the government, will eventually make the government immune to any attempts of the people to change the system.

Eventually elections will only give you choices between parties who advocate maintaining the current system. All other candidates will unable to compete without the funds to buy the media. Several close calls where "radical extremists" come close to winning elections will result in "government approval" requirements for new political parties.

I could go on, but you get my drift. When you think of the US, think of what it could have been and hope that one day, perhaps a 1000 years from now, after some natural calamity finally wipes out the world government and throws humanity back into the dark ages, that new leaders like our founding fathers will emerge and will learn from our mistakes.

That is our only hope.

Mornin Selby!...I'm for Montreal and the Eskimos.....Guess yer not for Montreal...Ya really think it'll be better than the Stuporbowl---that's a tall order ta fill ( grin thing ) ....

According to Alan Abelson's column in the latest BARRON'S, most on Wall Street subscribe to OLDMAN'S argument that the markets will experience a final big runnup before the bear hits with a vengeance. Could happen, but with so many expecting such an outcome the odds seem slim to me.

Isn't this how many sensible investors who know a big drop is coming, get bagged nonetheless? They know a grizzly is near, but they have to play that final rally. Many of those who confidently expect to ride the bull to the final top and get out just before everything falls apart will end up outsmarting themselves.

Cmax: I doubt that other countries will confiscate their citizens gold.
The Swiss have had gold as a major feature of their history for 100's of years and they haven't confiscated it. Certainly following the US lead on the mater is a non starter. France for one might start giving the stuff away if the US started to confiscate.

FIRST WORLD WAR
Canada's fighting men-and women-participated in war theatres usually not associated with this country, such as the partisan fighting in Yugoslavia, the Pacific battles of the Second World War and the Mesopotamian campaign of the First World War.

Canadians also proudly took part in the mostly forgotten post-Bolshevik Allied invasion of Siberia in 1919. Throughout, they fought bravely on land, sea and in the air. While warfare has undergone revolutionary change from the trenches of the First World War to the high-tech wizardy of the Gulf War, the articles show that the experiences of the ordinary fighting man and woman remain surprisingly constant.
http://www.macleans.ca/caw/caw.html

An Underground Tank ................October 1918
By Lieut. C.W. Tillbrook

Here was an old, crumped dugout with its buried inmates-how long would it be before they would be churned up by a shell? To my right were innumerable sand bags-our spoil dump, under which were buried hundreds, friend and foe alike. I watched a rat come out from underneath a tin can, so diseased that it could hardly walk. It crept to a brownish, green heap that stuck out between some sandbags and began to nibble. Was it a human thigh? I turned away in disgust only to be faced by many such sights.
http://www.macleans.ca/caw/ww1.html

SECOND WORLD WAR
Escape from Hong Kong .................. June 15, 1942
By C.E. Ross

The bullets were once again tearing through the boat and believe me, I stripped in nothing flat. The pockets of my jacket were bulging with last minute things I had tried to save, including two thousand Hong Kong dollars I was carrying to see us through if we ever made the guerilla country. Threw my pistol off--a dandy little 32 Colt automatic given to me by the Assistant Police Chief just at the start of the war. Gosh, it was hard to lose absolutely everything.

As I hit the water I can remember feeling my wrist watch, and thinking, "That's the last thing I possess, now it's ruined."
http://www.macleans.ca/caw/ww2.html

Ted: I would like to see Montreal win because it would be good for the league. But they won't.

Selby ( Toronto ) REF: Your Question "Anyone have any idea what percentage of US citizens have a noticable quantity of gold--say 10 or more ozs in coins or bullion?" I do not have copies of the studies, nor do I recall the names of the analysts, HOWEVER, it remains clearly in my mind that the sources were reputable - motivating me to remember the important data.

In the early 1970s "one US investor in 1,000 possessed some form of gold investment, i.e. bullion, futures and/or gold mining shares." That's obviously 0.1% of the US investor universe. In Janauary 1980 - just before gold's all-time peak of $850 - US gold investors had risen to 50 in every 1,000 market investors. That's 5%. During the Gold Bull Market noble mental investment per head count increased 50 times.

Three years ago at a Gold Conference a paper was presented showing that US gold investor interest was AGAIN at a historical low of ONE per 1,000 market investors ( 0.1% ) -- a cyclic low in my opinion.

None of the above takes into account gold jewelry possession.

Donald:
No optimist....I think we are just talking about two different
time frames, with my scenario occuring first, to be later
displaced by your scenario. The cart ahead of the horse.
I hope the world does not arrive at your scenario, but I tend
to agree with you as it will be the outcome and the WILL of
human natue....and the nature of goverment mentality.
The ONLY way I see the avoidance of a total D-day
meltdown, is the goverments relinquishing ALL monetary
controls, and allowing water to seek its own level as gold
become the defacto world currency from the ashes of the
fiat paper. True global economy. But as always, the
goverments will try to control the uncontrolable, which will
only exasperate the problem.

Imagine, a true free market with a gold standard, alone,
will remove all long term problems. No more defecit
( deceit ) spending, no more anauthorized debt.

But, Rome must burn first.

Cmax: I have read your responses to ANOTHER -- yesterdays and todays posts from both of you are very informative. I think what makes ANOTHER so mysterious to us - and intriguing -- is that he offers a unique non-Western, probably Middle Eastern perspective. He/she is learning from us, and we are learning from him. If we continue this dialogue, we all benefit.
I will post later after family chores, but I think we must separately analyze the following:
1 ) A commodity-like sudden shortage of gold bullion -- so bullion prices will soon skyrocket, until other sources of supply come in to play. Our gold gurus should be able to tell us how high.
2 ) A rise in oil prices - I think - despite the dramatic downturn of at least one third of the world's economy -- an "oil price shock" in SE Asia. Oil prices will not be controlled by the OPEC group as it was in 1973 or so, because oil produceers are now very diverse. We may still have an "oil price shock" in US dollars. Do we have some oil guru's at our site to give the Western perspective?
3 ) A currency/derivatives crisis -- this is what ANOTHER is talking about when he/she talks about all trading stopping. We need to analyze this as a separate topic, because this may not be synchronous with the other two above phenomena.
4 ) A market crash or bear market -- worldwide. This may be linked to item 3 ) .

I always enjoy reading ANOTHER's posts, and now inderstand the mystery -- he/she has a different way of thinking -- knows things we don't know, and doesn't know things we know -- this is why we all benefit, and it is best for the dialogue to continue.

Donald, Good Morning, Your posts this morning seem even more dark than usual concerning the horizon for America. This situation reminds me of the first time I read Atlas Shrugged. I had picked it up as airplane reading on my way to Romania in the late 70's. It was a depressing two weeks, what with experiencing the effects of an imploded socialist state, with a series of whispered, desperate messages imploring me to help arrange visits outside the country on various ruses so that they could defect. ( With water running in the bath room of course. ) All the while I was wading through Atlas Shrugged, feeling that I was experiencing what was happening in the book. It was awful. I fervently hope that we aren't in for that kind of experience. You seem to be expecting something like it.

Yeah,that's the only reason I wanted Montreal to win too! Can you or anyone "out there" beat this weather forcast?? http://www.theweathernetwork.com/city/can/data/sydney.html

They Can't Take 'em Up !

It's always hard to take 'em down, but this week they either can't
take 'em up, or certainly can't keep 'em up. And that's not good.
Supply easily exceeds demand in this market, which is more
important than probably hits most investors at first blush. Gene Inger shares his stock market wisdom with us:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger1107.html

Colleen: I 've got to run!! Family duties! My server became overloaded and failed to receive the last three days of posts. I purged everything. Could you repost? Thanks.
Incidentally -- I think Crook is right about the El Nino/market connection. Can't figure out 1929 market and the dustbowl connection yet - not clear to my how this can be ElNino related -- yet. But adverse weather will clearly affect the economy.

Funny even to a vegetarian.......

Bob M..

The gold seizure was NOT voluntary. Failure turn in your gold was a felony with a 10 yr sentence attached.

However, the price you received I think was $35/oz not $16/oz. Which in hind site, if true, would have been a great deal.

Bob M..

The gold seizure was NOT voluntary. Failure turn in your gold was a felony with a 10 yr sentence attached.

However, the price you received I think was $35/oz not $16/oz. Which in hind site, if true, would have been a great deal.

and then the phoenix will rise from the ashes.

How many Kitcoites are going to the SF gold show at the end of November.

A few beers might be fun

Ted: This isn't good but beats Breton: http://www.theweathernetwork.com/city/can/data/toronto.html

Vronsky: Your .1% supports my long held view that one of the reasons for gold's decline is that currently "nobody wants the stuff". Whether this is a good decision or not may soon be revealled. I wonder if there are any figures that would suggest that there is enough gold coin or bullion in private hands to warrant confiscation in the US?

I recall my thinking, that when news of the first bombs dropping in Iraq,, oil would skyrocket. What happened? Oil plunged. The Gold market will probably have some type on contrary reaction also; that is, a news event that is very bearish for gold causes an explosion in tbe gold price. Maybe a Greenspan comment that deflation has arrived in the US?

Clinton says unsure if "fast track" bill will pass

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton said he was not sure if Congress would pass legislation on fast track trade authority but said he would not give in on the key Democratic issue of abortion to secure it.

In an interview on NBC's Meet the Press that was taped Saturday and aired Sunday, Clinton was asked what he thought the outcome of Sunday's critical vote would be. "I'm not sure yet," he said. "It's close and we're working very hard on it."

'You guys' always beat us---what's wrong with US ( grin thing ) ? Have fun at the game!!! Oh yeah,all the shop keepers in our area ( Sydney area ) are gettin paranoid as it looks like we're going to have a police strike this week and then the vandalism and general destruction ( already bad ) will get out of control----permissive attitude towards 'young offenders' is extreme to the point of being RIDICULOUS....

Oldman & Puetz - According to Jim Flanagan of Pasr Present Futures, "In the 210 year history of the N.Y. Stock Exchange, there has never been a bull market top between Oct. of the 7th year and Oct. of the 8th in any decade". Time is running out for a crash, positive seasonals kick in soon. A more likely outcome is a lazy test of the 10/28 lows maybe a couple hundred points lower. Then a large trading range of a 1,000 points lasting into the 4th quarter of 1998 before another leg up to new highs begins. Closed out my short S&P Fri. will try and reshort Mon. above 940.

Will begin workin on a masterpiece ta ya.....

November 9, 1997
FOCUS-Asia woes seen keeping U.S. Fed rates down

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Shaky global financial markets are set to keep the U.S. Federal Reserve from pushing interest rates up this week, despite hard-to-ignore warning signs of overheating in the booming economy. Not even Friday's surprisingly strong jobs figures -- U.S. unemployment is at its lowest level in 24 years, raising fears that growing wage pressures might rekindle inflation -- could sway analyst forecasts of steady rates when Fed policymakers meet Wednesday to chart the path of borrowing costs.

"Asia will be saving us this week," said Joel Naroff, Philadelphia-based economist of First Union Corp. "They did have enough in hand to make the move next week. Barring Asia, there would have been a possibility."

The turmoil that has swept Southeast Asia triggered wild gyrations on world stock markets and contributed on Oct. 27 to the largest single-day point drop in the Dow Jones index of key U.S. stocks -- which was quickly welcomed by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan as all-but-overdue.

"The odds of a Fed tightening in the absence of the financial market strains would not be 100 percent but would still be a pretty good bet," said Lou Crandall, economist at Wrightson & Associates in New York.

"This is an economy running at very high speed with very tight labor markets," she said. "The danger seems to be on the inflationary side, and not on the deflationary side."

Greenspan last week forecast that the impact of the Asian crisis on U.S. growth rates was likely to be moderate. Yet his musings Friday on the failure of the Consumer Price Index to measure inflation properly were seen by many as anindication that he is, at least for now, comfortable with what is happening on the U.S. price front.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/ECONOMY-FED.html

Ted: Where do you think all that welfare and UIC comes from? Off to the game.

FDR confiscated gold because it was in circulation and was considered to be money. The entire U.S. money supply was tied firmly to gold. Today, gold is irrelevant. Why would the government want the stuff? What would they do with it? The world economies have moved from gold to paper and are now moving from paper to electronic accounts. In 10 years, we will all be using debit or credit cards to go to museums and see the quaint old fashioned stuff we used to circulate as money. Our grandkids will have the same opinion of us using gold or even paper, that the Europeans had of Indians selling Manhattan for beads. It is far more likely that we will have individual account numbers on chips planted subcutaneously in our wrists used to track our every transaction. Gold will not make a return as money unless individualism triumphs over collectivism. As Selby and others have pointed out today, the score has been heavily run up against us. There will be ebbs and flows as we move forward. Possibly we will see a nice rally in gold next year. Longer term, I am pessimistic. Away...

Hi Carl: It is a rainy day here but that is better than a rainy day in Roumania! I am not at all a gloomy person in "real life". Kitcoland is not real life but it may be future real life.

I get the feeling that no one understands that the Division of Labor, all occupations, require the presence of a medium of exchange. All the things you see and use today would not be here if it were not for the Division of Labor. It is very basic and very simple. As whatever we have selected as our medium of exchange diminishes so does our standard of living. It can go to zero in short order. The official world has selected the dollar as its medium of exchange but it will be the unofficial world that makes the final decision. Events in Asia are a clear warning to the official world that paper is suspect. It is not too late for the official world to correct the error that led to the selection of paper. If that correction is not made before the dollar is under attack, it will be too late. The unofficial world will make the choice.

Speed:
If currencies bomb and equities and derivatives burn, gold
WILL go through the roof, making it THE defacto world
currency. THAT is why they will confiscate it....to control
it. By the creation of gold derivatives, it appears that they
have done a formidable job at controlling gold without
confiscating it.......for the moment. Buy just wait until they
lose control...............
Indivdualism triumphing over collectivism will have nothing to do with it, this will be a
simple question of force.

Iraq has stockpiled VX nerve gas agent - report
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/02/z0009_5.html

Henry Weingarten
Once again our trading plan is to play extremes and we began buying gold Wednesday and will do so through Tuesday. Then we hope to take profits over the next 3-6 weeks.
http://www.tfc.com/syndication/current.cgi?tfc+weingarten

Weekly charts
Dax
http://www.cam.org/~jacad/charts/daxweek.gif
Nikkei
http://www.cam.org/~jacad/charts/nekeweek.gif
Ftse100
http://www.cam.org/~jacad/charts/ftseweek.gif
Dow
http://www.cam.org/~jacad/charts/dowweek.gif

Massive currencies devaluations and stock market crashes! Absolute financial chaos reigns in South East Asia - This is spilling over into Japan, Australia, Europe and the US of A. A Financial Tsunami is Looming in Land of SETTING Sun. What inevitably follows will be the total collapse of their banking system. Japan will indeed be forced to dump US T-Bonds in order to defend the home economy. Subsequently, they will buy gold as they fight for economic and financial survival- SEE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html

To: The Puetz Cadre@Kitco,with admiration ( I tried for under 30 lines, but I didnt make it! Sorry )

I respectfully ask that the Cadre turn the force of their considerable collective brain power, and their individual mental acuity, to the ways the oligarchy will attempt to deal with the global implosion. May I take the liberty of putting my concerns before you?

For some time I have been perplexed by the explanations as to why there was no inflation; if productivity was the answer, why did the trade deficit grow? Why did it feel like my dollar was worth less?

The answer I have come to is that the dollar has quietly been devalued, against what I believe WB/IMFand the CBs hope to establish as the new key currency., the Special Drawing Right or SDR. The Canadian government, in a briefing paper prepared for Halifax, had a throw away sentence that caught my attention: the SDR was created ...to replace the less than reliable dollar.

The new key currency will differ from its predecessors in several compelling ways: it is the child of the bankers, and will never leave home; it belongs to no country, is treasured by no populace. It will be the Accounting Tool for the highest echelons of global government, multinational commerce and global political forces ( e.g., the Greens ) . This key currency will be the Yahweh of all currencies ever issued; its name, like Yahweh, to sacred to be spoken aloud.

I believe this is their response. I do not think it was seriously worked on before 1993-1994; but reading through stacks of very boring stuff, it seems apparent that Something happened around that time that energized everyone. Why does it matter? And can they carry it off?

At the outset, SDR1=USD1. As of 7/16/97 the exchange is SDR1=USD 1.381.

That sure holds inflation down.

And now we are supposed to fear deflation. Cash will be king and gold will be dead. Oh yes? What cash? In what country?

I would feel less angst were I more confident that the citizenry were less credulous. The last two US presidential elections proved, beyond a reasonable doubt, that character doesnt matter, feel good matters, and it is possible to fool enough of the people enough of the time to do just about anything. The oligarchy has lead us were they willed: from Somalia to Bosnia we have absorbed their carefully crafted plays, bleated and wept, and not thought at all. We have become a people incapable, apparently, of reasoned discrimination and judgment.

I look around and I see a marshaling of political forces. The most powerful, global political force is the Greens; they will be offered the Tobin Tax. Multinationals will sit down at the table because the hidden currency dessert is too tempting to resist. Bankrupt governments, and they are legion, will join the party because they cant afford not to join the party. It will be a real last supper.

Like you, and Isaac Newton, I believe gold is honest money, and the appropriate currency for an honest populace. While I would not be so rash as to see some of my fellow citizens as charlatans, I must admit to serious reservations about their moral sensibilities. Do we deserve gold?

Puetz thinks down soon.
Oldman thinks up then down.
APH thinks trading range.
I respect the thoughts of all three traders, but with such diverse opinions on the future of the Dow, I'm left with two conclusions.
First, each one of us should learn to trade from his/her OWN indicators/systems.
Second, diverse opinions make markets!

Well Stated: "They ( Bankrupt governments ) can't afford not to join the party. It will be a real last supper"
Good Work, Take Care.

Nice post SDRer. I too hope that we can get some cycles on this topic. If we can get a glimpse of their plan then we can better prepare. The SDR definitely is a important tool in their toolkit and it has of yet been unleased with their full PR abilities on the general public of the world. I suspect that the number of people aware of the SDR outside of the ruling circle is infinitestimal.

Donald, As usual, you cut to the heart of the problem. But, how can the dollar remain trustworthy as a final exchange refuge if dollars can be created and destroyed by debt creation denominated in dollars anywhere in the world? Look, for example, at the crisis happening now in Korea. The banks tried to shore up their capital positions with big leveraged positions in South American Brady bonds. Now they are getting margin calls with those dollar denominated bonds sinking. The "international" system is likely to be pressured into creating more paper to bail them and it's going to be dollars that do it. How can the Federal Reserve keep control of the currency, if it's treated as a world currency? Your post implies that there are choices left. What are they? Yes, I know you will perhaps suggest the gold standard. I don't see how that could ever happen until all the damage is done. And then, who would trust it not to be undone at the first whim of political pandering?

Donald: A sincere mea culpa for not responding to your inquiry last night. Stephen Leeb, the editor of "Personal Finance," has been recommending both stocks and mutual funds for the past three months. Specifically, he likes Newmont Mining because they don't hedge their gold production: "if gold goes up, investors get the full benefit of higher prices." He goes on to argue that Newmont's capitalization amounts to around $114 per ounce of gold in reserve, "which is the lowest of the major producers and 25% lower than the average of them." For mutual funds he has been recommending The Midas Fund. You might also look at a book he wrote last year entitled, "The Agile Investor," where a la many of our Kitco participants ( Puetz, Cole, etc. ) , he is predicting a massive collapse of equity markets and a corresponding increase in global instability. He also likes oil, oil rigging companies, and energy stocks like Apache, Chevron, ENSCO, Texaco and others.
For those who argue that the investing public will continue to ignore gold, they have to recognize, at least, some emerging interest among financial advisors who continue to recommend the stuff.

Capital Growth Topics #198: Chaos
http://www.tfc.com/syndication/current.cgi?tfc+bollinger

"Opportunities in Options Hotline Update"
http://www.tfc.com/syndication/current.cgi?tfc+caplan

ONLINE BROKERS PROMISE: WE WON'T GET SWAMPED AGAIN
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/nov1997/nf71106a.htm

Sanyo bankruptcy shakes industry
Asahi Shimbun

Sanyo Securities Co.'s bankruptcy illustrates that times have changed and now only the fittest of Japanese financial institutions will survive, analysts said.
The once-powerful Finance Ministry can no longer maintain its vaunted "convoy system" under which it kept all financial institutions afloat, regardless of their competitiveness.
Japanese financial institutions, now groaning under the weight of massive nonperforming loans, can no longer rescue weaklings even if administrative pressure is applied, they said.
Sanyo Securities, a second-tier brokerage saddled with 373.6 billion yen in debts, filed for protection from its creditors under the Corporate Rehabilitation Law at the Tokyo District Court on Monday. It was the first securities company to do so.
The move came as a surprise even to industry officials, who are usually well-informed of what could happen in the industry. They had expected the Finance Ministry would bail out Sanyo Securities, one way or the other.
Such expectations were not groundless because the Finance Ministry had supported Sanyo Securities by forcing life insurance companies to extend subordinated loans to the brokerage four times since 1995.
The ministry had also maneuvered to merge Sanyo Securities with Kokusai Securities, a financially healthy second-tier brokerage, and then later obtain support from Sanwa Bank.
Typically, the Finance Ministry has called on large financial institutions, or those with close ties, to help bail out troubled companies or simply absorb the ones that go belly up.
But financial institutions cannot blindly follow ministry guidance anymore, industry executives said.
Every financial institution has to write off its nonperforming loans and improve its financial standing in order to survive intensifying domestic and international competition.
In addition, company managers can no longer authorize bailout contributions out of fear they may be sued by the company's own shareholders.
The subordinated loans life insurance companies extended to Sanyo Securities have already become irrecoverable.
Such precedents may also affect ongoing rehabilitation efforts of the Hokkaido Takushoku Bank.
Hokkaido Takushoku, which planned to restructure by merging with Hokkaido Bank, has been forced to postpone merger plans because the two were at odds over the actual amount of Hokkaido Takushoku's nonperforming loans.
Hokkaido Takushoku Bank has been asking life insurance companies to securitize their outstanding subordinated loans but will probably face difficulties, industry analysts said.
Now that Sanyo Securities has defaulted on its debts, some financial institutions are expected to turn down other requests for financial aid, the analysts said.
Sanyo Securities' bankruptcy has triggered share sell-offs in other second-tier brokerages. That is why prices of Yamatane, Kankaku, Cosmo, Dai-Ichi and Taiheiyo shares are now hovering around the 100-yen level.
Shares of troubled banks--Hokkaido Takushoku, Hokkaido and the Nippon Credit Bank--have also stood at extremely low levels, reflecting the loss of investor confidence.

This is my first post to this discussion group. Has the legendary lost city of El Dorado just been discovered? How much gold is buried in this lost Inca City?

November 8, 1997

Web posted at: 9:16 p.m. EST ( 0216 GMT )

LIMA, Peru ( AP ) -- Three members of a documentary film team trapped for a month in an unexplored part of Peru's Amazon rain forest say they found a pre-Incan stone city and chunks of gold ore hidden for centuries under the dense jungle.

Rescued Belgian ornithologist Jean de Coninck said the stone city was "larger and more imposing" than the largely unexplored pre-Incan ruins of Gran Pajaten located in the area, which is dominated by jungle-shrouded mountains.

The citadel of Gran Pajaten dates back to 2000 B.C. and was occupied until it was conquered by the Incas in the early 16th century, said archaeologist Adrian Mendoza, director of the National Institute of Culture in the department of San Martin.

Mendoza said in a telephone interview that the expedition could have found such a lost city since there are indications of undiscovered ruins in the area. "Some 26 expeditions have gone to Pajaten but only five were authorized. The others went to loot," Mendoza said.

Gran Pajaten was discovered in 1965 by American explorer Gene Savoy. It is regarded as one of the most important pre-Columbian ruins discovered since the American explorer Hiram Bingham found Machu Picchu in 1911.

Many expeditions have gone to the Gran Pajaten area in search of the lost city of El Dorado, which legend has it is filled with gold, Mendoza said. Coninck said the expedition found large quantities of gold ore near the ruins. "It's a city built on slabs of stone. We are not archaeologists, but we have kept a record of what we found and we know the exact location of the mounds," said Coninck, who lives in Peru.

http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/9711/08/peru.jungle.ruins.ap/index.html

Australian markets will feel the heat.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971110/market/markets1.html

It's a warm night outside the stadium. Inside 80,000 fans cheer the game. Outside in the parking lot a propane tank on one of the 1000's of tailgaters grills begins to spew forth an odorless colorless vapor. Those nearby fall to the ground never to move again. Slowly the invisble cloud
drifts toward the stadium, those near the stadium exits are next but all are doomed. This is just one of the many futures Sadam has in store for us and his VX nerve gas. It's just a matter of time.

Puetz,
In desperate times, desperate govs do desperate things.

Asia turmoil may cost Australia 60,000 jobs
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971106/news/news4.html

TWO SOLAR STORMS HEADED TOWARD EARTH-November 7, 1997 In the next few days scientists expect the effects of two solar storms to be felt on earth. Huge solar flares sent off a clouds of magnetically charged particles that are headed towards earth. Such electrical storms may disrupt satellite and radio communications. Experts say that in rare instances such distrubances can knock out power grids on earth.

IRAQI OPPOSITION SAYS PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY HOUSES SADDAM'S ARMS SECRETS-November, 6, 1997 The Jerusalem Post today reports that an Iraqi opposition spokesmans says the Palestinian Authoriy's embassy in Baghdad, Iraq is being used as a secret repository for documents that relate to Iraq's build up of non-convential weapons such as chemical weapons, VX nerve gas, and perhaps even nuclear weapons. They said that the location keeps the documents from UN inspectors due to the site's diplomatic immunity.
Palestinian Authority spokesman Nabil Amr in response to the charges said, "I have no idea about this information."

U.S. BUYING UP EASTERN EUROPEAN WEAPONS TO STOP THEM FROM GOING TO IRAN-November 6, 1997 Although the cost of the deals are kept secret, the U.S. is buying sophisticated weapons like aircraft in bulk quantity from former Soviet-bloc nations to keep them from falling into the hands of rogue nations like Iran, Iraq, and Libya. The first transaction involved the purchase of 21 MiG-29 fighter jets from Moldova. The going price of such weapons are estimated to be about $30 million.

VOLCANO ON MONTSERRAT READY TO EXPLODE-November 4, 1997 British scientists say that the Soufrier Hills volcano on Montserrat may explode again at any time. Two-thirds of the island's population has previously been evacutated. The government will issue a televised warning today to island residents.

EARTHQUAKES REPORTED IN VARIOUS PLACES-November 6, 1997 Yesterday four earthquakes were reported in Greece. The last one registered 5.2 although no injuries were reported.
Iran, with a history of devastating earthquakes, recorded a 4.4 tremor early today which sent terrified Iranians to the streets. The epicenter was in Varamin, 20 miles southeast of Tehran.
A 5.2 magnituted earthquake struck 9 miles south of Quebec City last night and was felt throughout New England. Play at the International Hockey League game in the Colisee du Quebec was temporarily halted.
Two strong earthquakes were felt in Japan early this morning in Kushiro and Chichijima. The earthquakes registered 5.2 and 5.3, respectively, in magnitude.

Yvan Auger expects a reversal in both metals and XAU this week. http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/wrapup.html#wrapup

the url, again http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/wrapup.html#wrapup

SDRer: The has been little Consumer Price Inflation ( CPI ) because most new borrowing has been in the financial sector. Donald alluded to this in his 8:42 posting this morning. He talked about Asset Price Inflation ( API ) in stocks and bonds.

When credit expands, inflation occurs. It so happens, that during the 1980s and 1990s, we have had more API than CPI. But both are inflations.

Federal Reserve statistics confirm these inflations. Domestic sector debt has increased by only 33% since 1990 -- by about 4% per year. Over the same time, financial sector debt grew by 100% -- by about 12% per year. That's why CPI inflation has been in the 4% area since 1990, and why mutual fund holders are getting double-digit returns in the 1990s.

But make no mistake about it. Both are inflations and speculations. Collectively, consumers are living beyond their means by 4% per year, and financial market players are speculating to the tume of 12% more borrowed funds each year.

In the United States, financial sector debt has exploded to over $5 trillion in 1997 -- up from $2.5 trillion in 1990. Much of this debt is off-balance-sheet transactions in the form of financial derivatives. Globally, the financial derivative market exceeds $60 trillion. Inflation has been alive and well in the US. It's just that it has reared its ugly head in the form of API.

But, remember: All inflations eventually end with deflation. To me, it looks like the deflation has started. Watch our below. A stock and bond market crash is rapidly approaching. If we're going to have one final rally before the crash, I'll let others enjoy the rally. I'll pass. I'm too terrified of our financial future to comfortable enjoy even 1 day on the long-side of the stock market.

To: Colleen

Good morning again. The reference to FT site was just to say I hope you enjoy it. The postal service manages to turn my hard copy FT into a historical tract, so I find the on-line edition very helpful.
The mention of Paul in the leader was confusing for you because my typing leaves something to be desired ( like accuracy ) . There was supposed to be some punctuation between the FT and Pauls name.
Regards.

Glad I don't have "Intel Inside". ( I have an AMD in my computer. )

http://www.news.com/News/Item/0,4,16173,00.html?feed.ms.start

Pentium bug surfaces

By Brooke Crothers

November 7, 1997, 2:20 p.m. PT

A new bug that crashes Intel ( INTC ) Pentium processors has been found

and is now being discussed openly on the Internet.

The bug has the potential to crash Pentium computers and could be used

as a weapon for sabotage, according to Robert Collins, whose Intel

Secrets Web site tracks inside information on Intel, the world's leading

chipmaker.

Syndicates and India mystify the market
Silver is in play. Trading volumes have soared and until last week, so had the price.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971110/invest/ivcommod.html

It's a dangerous time in the commodities bearpit
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971110/market/markets9.html
But finally, commodities have already been hurt.
They have already discounted a lot of this bad news. They may be ripe for a rally.
The rally, however, is a sell, according to most analysts -- especially the rally in gold, copper and nickel.
Of course, if Barton Biggs is right, few of us will care about falling commodity prices. With the world ending, we'll be more concerned with our vegie patches in the back garden.

Korea faces further loss in won battle
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971110/world/world2.html

Shek: You're right. Governments do drastic things in drastic drastic times. Unfortunately, these drastic measures are normally short-term fixes that make the long-term survival of the government even less likely.

Presently, too many governments around the world have made too many short-term fixes in the past. The long-term is finally arriving. Those governments -- including the US -- will collapse because of their short-sighted solutions from the past.

As individuals, we can only do the best we can to protect our own lives and property. Converting all assets into gold and silver coins is one of those steps that can be taken. We must fend for ourselves.

Donald
yes the Y. Auger chart.. i mentioned it early summer
last year and have been playing with it.
i read of your interest. nice to have xau, ratio and
then can use some of the gold funds bpt/a etc.. or
pdg etc.. all on same chart. very interesting.

Explosion hits New York's financial district


Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 Agence France-Presse

NEW YORK ( November 9, 1997 10:41 a.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) - A blast blew out several windows of the Merrill
Lynch/Swiss Security Bank building in New York's financial district Sunday, police said.

The explosion rocked the building at 6 a.m., said New York Police Department spokeswoman Theresa Farello.

No injuries were reported and it was unclear whether the building was occupied, she said.

Farello said police, fire and bomb squads remained on the scene four hours after the blast but there was still no indication as to
the cause of the explosion.

Date: Sun Nov 09 1997 12:43
Puetz (@bpuetz.holli.com) ID#222167:

TED: What a difference a new coach makes! The Boilermakers new football coach ( Joe Tiller, formerly head coach at Wyoming ) has turned the program around and made Boilermaker football exciting again. Purdue is now 7-2. They still have to play Penn State, though.

Ted, good luck in your investments.

Additional items from this week's Barron's, from Andrew Bary: "Wall Street spent much of last week congratulating itself about how well it handled the aftermath of the Dow's 554-point loss on Gray Monday.... 'People's backs were getting sore from patting each other so much,' says Charles Pradilla.... With the markets quick recovery, money managers, individual investors, and Wall Street executives were busy telling each other how beautifuly they handled the mini-crash. Most people kept their heads, few sold into the panic, and importantly, the virtue of buying into big dips was amply demonstrated once again."

My comment: The dipsters think their strategy has worked once again. However, so far, the DJIA has not recovered to the level where it stood they day before Gray Monday. More importantly, the advance-decline line shows that the average share-price has not recovered at all. At the close on Friday, the advance-decline line stood just a shade above its Gray Monday low. It's amazing to see that financial derivative open-interest ( on listed derivatives in the US ) has INCREASDED during the past two weeks. Not only are the dipsters buying, but they are using ever-increasing amounts of leverage to make their purchases!!!!

Furthermore, the dipsters are totally ignoring the devastating effect of the spreading financial crises around the world. Analysts such as Marty Zweig, who have proclaimed: The trend is your friend -- they have ignored the down-trend. Instead, they say that the global financial crisis is bullish for stocks because it means the Federal Reserve will ease credit.

If you are a Keynesian, you probably believe that Fed credit can indeed bolster the stock market. But, the truth is: Credit expansion only works in lenders are willing to lend, and borrowers are willing to borrow. The 1930s were proof that easy Fed credit does not necessarily mean lenders will lend -- as excess reserves ( supplied by the Fed sat un-used by banks too scared to lend ) .

I imagine the recent rise in bankruptcies, coupled with the stock market turmoil, is the reason excess reserves are once again building at banks. In other words, bankers are becoming too scared to lend. This is another deflationary signal.

November 9, 1997
Chronology of Clinton's bid for fast track

WASHINGTON9 ( Reuters ) - Here is a chronology of the troubled history of the Clinton administration's trade policy leading up to the expected congressional vote Sunday on fast-track authority to negotiate international trade deals.
***November 1993: After a tough battle, President Clinton gets congressional approval for the North American Free Trade Agreement ( NAFTA ) among Canada, Mexico and the United States.
***December 1993: In down-to-the-wire talks, major trading nations conclude the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations, the most comprehensive trade liberalization deal in history.
***April 1994: Uruguay Round agreement is signed in Marrakech, Morocco. It establishes a World Trade Organisation based in Geneva to police global trading practices.
***June 1994: Clinton asks Congress to renew fast track authority to negotiate new trade agreements. The authority had expired after the Uruguay Round. Fast track allows Congress to vote on trade agreements but without the right to change them. Clinton's proposal promises to take into account labor and evironmental issues to satisfy labor unions and
environmentalists skeptical of free trade.
***September 1994: Clinton administration abandons the effort to gain a renewal of fast track authority after it concludes any vote in Congress on the issue would fail.
***November, 1994: Leaders of Asia-Pacific nations including Clinton pledge at summit in Bogor, Indonesia, to achieve free trade in the booming region by the year 2010. Clinton says fast track authority needed for United States to take the lead in this negotiation.
***December, 1994: Summit in Miami of leaders of Western Hemisphere countries except Cuba agrees to negotiate a free trade agreement of the Americas by 2005. Clinton says fast track authority also needed for negotiating free trade agreement in the Americas.
***Feb. 4, 1997: Clinton makes new plea for fast track authority in State of the Union Address. But months pass without the administration presenting its legislation.
***Sept. 16: Clinton finally presents fast track authority plan to Congress. It says labor and environmental issues should be a part of negotiations only when "directly related to trade." Proposal is seen as a "good start" by majority Republicans and as unacceptable by many Democrat lawmakers.
***Nov. 3: Clinton wins over some waverers in his Democrat Party by outlining plans to pursue environmental and labor issues in the WTO and with other international organisations.
***Nov. 5: In further bid to win votes in Congress, Clinton presents five-year trade-related adjustment package costing $4 billion to help workers who lose their jobs from increased competition.
***Nov. 9: House of Representatives expected to vote on fast-track authority.

To: Puetz

Awesome!

Respectfulr Regards ( in UNDER 5 lines! )

Friday night on Wall Street Week: The elves index stood at 5 panelists bullish, 4 neutral, and 1 bearish. I'm using this as a contrary indicator. When the widely-followed analysts turn bearish, then we may be close to the bottom. For now, too many people are too bullish, considering: the trend, the excessive leveraging in the markets, the extreme over-valuations, and the brewing global financial crisis.

November 9, 1997
Central bankers meet at BIS after stock gyrations

BASLE, Switzerland ( Reuters ) - The world's most powerful central bankers gathered Sunday at the Bank for International Settlements to prepare for their first face-to-face session since last month's wild global stock market gyrations.

Meeting formally Monday against a backdrop of continuing turmoil on Asia's markets, the central bank governors from the Group of 10 ( G10 ) industrial nations are likely to express concern over the turbulence, but they will also try to calm nervous investors and confirm that pre-flux growth patterns were still intact.

"One would expect senior central bankers to express caution and concern about the developments, but also confidence that this is not the start of a global panic," said George Magnus, chief international economist for UBS.

Any statement by the G10 central bank governors is likely to be issued late on Monday morning, following the governors' regular monthly meeting at the BIS. On Sunday night, the governors were attending a private dinner.

Bundesbank president Hans Tietmeyer, the current chairman of the G10 central bank governors' committee, is likely to speak on behalf of the group.This month's meeting includes the world's top three central bank governors -- U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Bank of Japan governor Yasuo Matsushita and Tietmeyer.

Despite its name, the G10 has 11 members. The others are Belgium, Britain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland.

BIS, the world's oldest international financial institution, acts as a bank to the worlds' central banks. But its most important function is to serve as a club for the governors, where they can talk in privacy and discuss in an open and frank manner the latest developments on financial markets.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/MARKETS-BIS.html

6Pak: Where in the world is the government going to get the money for these workers. People are insane if they look at the financial markets and think that a debt ridden vehicle like the US Govt can come up with dime one.

The Union/labor people must be going nuts over this.

More and more polarization.

Do you know when this vote is happening today.

November 9, 1997
Stocks turmoil may keep U.S. bond mkt open Tuesday

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The turmoil in global financial markets may force the U.S. Treasury market to do something previously unthinkable -- open on Veterans Day, Tuesday Nov. 11.

Odds are slim, but market participants said some accounts have already started requesting firms emulate stock market operators by opening for business.

As of Friday morning, the Bond Market Association and Chicago Board of Trade were scheduled to close for the holiday. A Bond Market Association spokeswoman said a decision to open -- if need be -- probably wouldn't be made until Monday.

"Right now, Monday is a full day and Tuesday is a full close," she said.
The Bond Market Association has recommended a full close Tuesday, which firms would typically follow. But experts noted they are not bound by the recommendation.

Players said they could not remember the last time the market opened on a federal holiday."I hope it won't happen," said Vincent Verterano, head trader at Nomura Securities International Inc. "But if the market is
volatile, they can't stay closed. How can you justify being closed when the world is in turmoil?"

The issue came to the forefront Friday morning after Asian stocks tumbled overnight, triggering a fall of 101.92 points in the Dow Jones industrial average.

That triggered heavy Treasury buying that pushed bonds up nearly one point. "Don't let anyone tell you that this crisis is over," said William Sullivan, director of money markets research at Dean Witter Securities Inc. "There is no doubt that we are in the grips of a liquidity crisis."

LATEST ON CURRENCIES

Internationally acclaimed market analyst, James Dines, shares his insights and foresights with us about current currency crisis.

Asia is awash in hammered & cascading currencies. The deluge of devaluations in South East Asia is spilling over into other countries on the opposite side of the globe -- and will wreak havoc in world stock markets. The Currency Contagion Continues unabated...
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines1110.html

LATEST ON CURRENCIES

Internationally acclaimed market analyst, James Dines, shares his insights and foresights with us about current currency crisis.

Asia is awash in hammered & cascading currencies. The deluge of devaluations in South East Asia is spilling over into other countries on the opposite side of the globe -- and will wreak havoc in world stock markets. The Currency Contagion Continues unabated...
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines1110.html

Another item from Barron's: Could we be headed toward a bond market crash? Yes. Here's why, by Jacqueline Doherty: "Just as investors seemed poised to begin nibbling on emerging market debt, negative news about South Korean banks hit the markets Friday.... The markets are now focused on the fact that South Korean banks may have to sell emerging market debt to raise cash.... Hit especially hard hit were Brazilian, Russian, and South African bonds."

To those who are bullish bonds because we are entering a global deflation -- think again. The deflation of the early 1930s was not bullish to US Treasury bonds. After the 1929 crash, Treasuries kept falling in price until 1932. That was at a time when the US government was fairly solvent.

Now governments and banks are over-loaded with debt. The un-winding of this debt will cause bond prices to collapse, as well as stock prices. Overseas, the deleveraging is just beginning -- as countries like South Korea and Japan begin unloading their massive stock and bond holdings. Once deleveraging begins, it becomes self-feeding, and it snowballs. A global financial crash has definitely started.

November 9, 1997
Stocks in for a bumpy ride in week ahead

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Inflation or deflation?

U.S. investors this week will try to decide which specter they fear most, as Federal Reserve officials weigh stronger U.S. jobs data against the danger of an Asian deflationary spiral.

Fed officials are to meet Wednesday on interest rate policy, but few on Wall Street expect any change."They're not raising rates," predicted Peter Cardillo, director of research at Westfalia Investments.

"There's a balancing act in process in regards to those two situations," said Alan Ackerman, market strategist for Fahnestock and Co.

"We've got one foot on a bear market and one on a banana peel,"Ackerman's Fahnestock colleague Joseph Barthel said. "So we'd better be careful here."

For U.S. stocks this week, a bumpy ride was foreseen.
"By and large, one cannot be sure that we've tested the recent lows," Ackerman said. "And such a test appears to be forthcoming."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/STOCKS-WEEKAHEAD.html

To:6pac

Thanks for the mental handshake. In my more fanciful moments of paranoia, I suspect the They will roll over all the official debt into SDR denominated bonds, where they will join all that other electronic debt. Somewhere there is a building filled with computers that are filled with all this electronic debt. Everyone then waits for Y2K.

It ( the electronic debt ) all disappears in a Super Nova flash and IT IS NOT THEIR FAULT!

For politicians, who work very hard not to be blamed for anything, this is nirvana.

The Technocrats did it!

Overseas trading should be interesting tonight. Catch ya' later.

Today's Lecture, Man, Master of the Universe has been cancelled due to the Weather.

OK Nick, since you feel it's time for serious reflection on these troubling markets, I'll put satire aside today and express some serious thoughts;

1 ) Isn't it ironic, that the "Gold Standard" vs. "Fiat currency" debate from diehard Goldbugs, somehow elevates the "Gold Standard" to some kind of morally superior status.

Kitcoites, the resons you are gathered here together on this forum, the reason we even HAVE computer technology and this marvel called the Wolrd Wide Web, the reason we have ADAVNCED democratic civilization today enjoying the wealth and freedom we do, the reason we have incredible scientific / medical / technical breakthroughs that we all enjoy, is because we have flexible monetary policy, i.e. FIAT CURRENCY.

In the world you all wish we had held onto, namely a disk of cold metal for goos and services, we'd still be in the dark ages. It's "debt" and money creation that fueled the building of our industries, our high tech. revolution, our enterpreneurs, our visionairies, our builders of the future, our wealth, our creativity.

Wake up Luddites, it's FIAT currency and debt that has provided humanity with the wealth and success we have today. You folks would quench the human spirit and send us back into the dark ages if you had your way. Even our farming industry was founded on debt. Would you have all rather starved? Much as I hated the "New Deal" policies that brought us out of the depression, they were certainly a necessary booster to bring us back from the brink of the great depression.

I embrace our fellow citixens, humanity, our social progress, all fueled and assisted by debt and Fiat currency. You trust in a cold metal folks. I'll trust in our promise to each other ( ie fiat currency ) to keep moving forward, higher, better, exchanging those promises for goods, services, and progress. rewarding the productive with incentives, building a better place for our children, debt of no debt. In your perfect world, we'd all be living in caves. Wake up!

I do not know the time of the Fast Track vote.

Where did governments get wealth to kill, during war.

The Organized worker has been destroyed, the un-organized also, has been destroyed. Labour must be destroyed before these Central Bankers can make their collective move. Workers are Citizen's, many Suits have been very excited about giving Corporation's considerable assistance in the combat against the USofA Workers/Citizen.

Jay Gould 1886 said: "I can hire half the working class to kill the other half" In 1997, such an action has been accomplished, using FEAR, ( Debt ) working citizen against working citizen. Low life Suit's ( Management ) have been the force to get the job down.

"We the people " EH!

SDR - 13:36 PM
I agree with you .

A future big hitter and pro-worker Rep. Patrick Kennedy of Rhode Island is working against Fast Track and MAI. He is also Pro Life. Go Kennedy!

How can anyone stomach Gingrich among you conservatives.?

An economic collapse will empower labor and disempower the greedy manipulative Wall St. class which is the root cause of all our problems because of their inordinate influence over the political process. The problem with govt is too much influence by Capital which by definition is anti worker. The collapse will end their leverage and their game and return power to labor and thus a more pro worker govt. Woe to the financial types when powerr returns to its rightful place. This happened during the thirties when we had the greatest president and first lady ever ie Franklin and Eleanor. Hopefully it will be deja vu all over again as the great Yogi said.

SDRer, don't thank me. I consider your work and understanding of SDR, is great. From my point of view, SDR, is the missing link, in understanding what the next move of the Central Bank's will be.

Thank you, for putting forth the issue of SDR. Take Care.

To: LGB

I enjoy your posts, but find myself distressing by your willingness to reduce the creative force of the human mind down to an availability of lots of money.
Does Leonardo know? Gallieo?
What needs to get down has managed to find the necessary capital, long before the ballooning of fiat currency. I am NOT disputing your point that ready money has built a lot of pleasure palaces...

Just asking that you don't reduce the best of what we are to dollars and cents.

To: A. Goose
As well you know, youre the one who started me down this road. And I not sure I should thank you for that! ( Just kidding, mon ami )


To: The Cadre
It occurs to me that what we are watching, gold vis a vis world currencies, is a simple case of Greshams law alive and well and functioning.

Off to Sunday brunch, a glass of Chardonney, and only pleasant thoughts. Hold the world together Folks...

Here's an interesting article in the Japanese mainstream press - Asahi Shimbun. The industry expected the Finance Ministry to bail Sanyo out and they couldn't.

http://www.Asahi.com/english/enews/enews.html#enews_11066

Carl: You said "how can the dollar remain
trustworthy as a final exchange refuge if dollars can be created and destroyed by debt
creation denominated in dollars anywhere in the world?"

Here we have to make the very important distinction between cash dollars and credit dollars.

In my opinion the government only has a Constitutional obligation to back cash dollars with gold. Credit dollars are the result of private transactions between individuals and never in the history of our country have they been backed by gold ( except in cases where there was a private gold clause contract ) . Cash dollars should be risk free. Credit dollars should not.

To solve the current problem the government only needs to restore fully exchangeable gold backing to the currency already printed. Market forces will then decide the value of the remaining $60-80 trillion credit dollars. It should be remembered that government debt has always been non-gold backed credit dollars, albeit, convertable to a gold cash dollar at maturity.

I completely agree with you that money is not the sole incentive for greatness. Great thinkers and creative artists will create regardless of the monetary rewards or lack thereof.

My point is only that the greatest good for the greatest number has been achieved partly through the flexibility of our current system. Such is undeniable I think, even by Luddites like Puetz.

Puetz, I have scrolled bacl and read your posts. I was extremely disappointed and saddened to read in your 23:54 post that you have "No loyalty to the U.S.". Though this sentiment is consistent with most of what I read on this forum, it's troubling to see it from a so called "analyst" and "expert" and someone who publishes a Newsletter.

Puetz, I'm afraid that you , and all the many people here who echo your sentiments, have completely lost touch with what you have, how you came to have it, what incredible sacrifices were made by others to provide it to you, and why you should appreciate it rather than trashing it.

Look, I'll be the first to critisize stupidity in Politicians, in Govt., in Human institutions gone awry. I know there are hundreds, thousands of imperfections and problems in our social institutions, our Government, our society. I'm a realist, not a head in the sand Optimist. Yet is spite of this, I look around and see clearly that we in this country enjoy the best lifestyle, the sweetest freedom, the greatest opportunities, the richest democracy, the brightest FUTURE, that ANY society throughout human history has ever enjoyed.

You folks are quite wrong in assuming the founding fathers would be unhappy with the progress of the U.S. today. They'd be delighted with how far we've come.

I'm ashamed and saddened to see that so called economic "experts" with credentials from one of our own universities can make a statement like your "No loyalty to the U.S." statement. With all the ribbing I've given you Puetz for your faulty analysis of markets, with all your consistently bad calls that even a layman can see are nonsense, all that is nothing but fluff when we get down and look at our underlying philosophy of life.

What REALLY troubles me is that you're willing to sacrifice your heritage, your roots, your history, your forerunners ideals and hard work, your very soul. All so that you can peddle extremist and irresponsible nonsense to the gullible in order to sell newsletters. Unless you actually mean what you say, I don't know which is worse.

I'll address no further commentary, discussion, disagreement, or debate, in your direction. Whether markets rise or fall, whether Gold or stocks are the best investments for the long term. These issues are minor points of debate as far as I am concerned but interesting to discuss in a free exchange of ideas. I thought you a good "adversary" for legitimate disagreement in such discussion. You have now positioned yourself as unworthy of such consideration. Let your many "followers" here wallow in your irresponsible muck my friend. You've heard the last criticism or dialogue from me.

Your statement about this country is way beyond the boundries if ideological disagreement on markets Puetz. Way beyond the realm of intellectual discourse. Your statement and you yourrself sir, are worthy of utter and complete contempt, and in such I and any other American with heart, hold you. In total contempt. You and any others here who would echo your sentiments about this country.

November 9, 1997
Brazil to launch tough fiscal savings plan

SAO PAULO ( Reuters ) - Brazil is scheduled to announce drastic fiscal belt-tightening measures Monday aimed at boosting international investor confidence and warding off a speculative attack against its embattled currency.

"Finance Minister ( Pedro ) Malan will announce the measures tomorrow," said a spokesman at the Finance Ministry where members of the government economic team have been working on the plan behind closed doors all weekend.

Officials said the announcements were expected to be made first thing Monday morning, before local markets opened.

The spending cuts follow two nightmarish weeks of turbulence in local markets that have wiped out half the year's gains in the local stock exchange and forced authorities to spend up to $11 billion in the foreign exchange markets to defend the real currency.

"And my willingness, I reaffirm, is to do everything to guarantee the real ( currency ) . That's the objective," he told reporters.

The urgency surrounding the economic announcements has virtually eclipsed preparations for a two-day state visit by President Carlos Menem of Argentina, Brazil's closest regional ally, which was due to begin on Monday.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BRAZIL-ECONOMY.html

November 9, 1997
Mexico sets up emergency line of credit

MEXICO CITY ( Reuters ) - Mexico said Sunday it had set up a $2.5 billion contingency line of credit to help it ride out any emergencies caused by turbulence in world financial markets.

The line of credit, set up by a consortium of 31 banks and brokerages, is aimed at helping Mexico pay its debts if it is suddenly shut out of volatile capital markets."With this line of credit the federal government is looking to lessen the vulnerability of our economy to external shocks," the government said in a statement.

Mexico recovered from the crash of the peso in 1994 and the deep recession that followed by drawing on a multi-billion dollar aid package that came mainly from the United States and the International Monetary Fund.

The one-year loan could be renewed for one extra year, the government said.The line of credit was set up with a consortium of 31 banks or brokerage houses from the United States, Japan, Britain, Canada, Germany, Holland, France, Spain, Switzerland and Latin America.

The consortium included some of the biggest and best-known banks in the world, including Citibank, Chase Manhattan Bank, Deutsche Bank, and the Royal bank of Canada.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/MEXICO-LOAN.html

CMAX: I am unconvinced that any economic problem, regardless of severity, would cause a return to gold by governments. The transition of choice is from gold to many currencies, to a few currencies, to one general accounting currency for the entire world. That currency would be the SDR or some other computer generated base. Those who would collectivize us will have it no other way. Along the way, gold will rise and fall vs. dollars, yen etc. but long-term, the prognosis for gold as circulating money or even as backing for money is not good. Ownership of gold will not be challenged because it will be irrelevant. Economic collapse will produce social unrest which will lead to suspension of normal rights and to martial law. Power will come from the barrel of a gun. Buying and selling will be licensed and taxed using whatever standard the government wants. Western civilization doesn't value gold as money. Citizens will work for bread, gasoline, or SDRs before they will consider gold. More people in the West know what a federation credit is ( Star Trek ) , than know what gold is worth. We are losing in the area of education about these things and have been for years.

You should stop dialogue with Everyone. Not just Puetz. Then Bart wouldn't have to tackle the bandwidth problem.

LGB: It is possible to construct a dynamic economy using paper backed by gold. The industrial revolution took place with a gold standard and gold in circulation. Luddites traded with gold as did the progressive industrialists. Over-expansion of credit happened as did inflation, but they were very limited in scope and the booms and busts of the economic cycle were much less intense than today. Factories, railroads, and everything else you associate with modern scientific society, all began under gold standard economies. It is not a question of can it be done, it is question of will. The debate should be on why a gold backed currency is better than one backed by "the full faith and credit" of whoever. Humanity invented the light bulb, beer, indoor plumbing and the colt .44 revolver without derivatives and all while on a gold standard.

JTF: Sorry if I became a bit abstruse with the astrological nomenclature, when all you are looking for is a few dates ( I know the feeling - that's the kind of confusion I tumble into when you engineers start talking about megahertzes and impedences and lead wires n' stuff ) . I was just pointing out that the nearest term aspects for Japan that might be fruitful to anticipate were on November 24th and 25th. It turned out as I checked the old ephemeris, and compared those days to some other significant charts, that there are a few other nations and institutions one might anticipate some blips in. Might be some kind of minor near-term confluence that affects interrelated markets. We learned ( rather quickly ) in the Army that when you're in your foxhole watching out through the barbed wire at the jungle, you look around yourself first, then move your gaze slowly out toward the horizon. Don't do no good seeing the enemy hordes advancing over the distant mountains, when one is silently crawling up behind you with a dagger in his teeth. The Mars aspect I noted for you is not necessarily anything big-time, but may denote a trigger for some heavier background activity that has been building. What WILL happen on those 2 days, or thereabouts, I can't say - I'm an astrologer, not a fortuneteller. Just an observation for those looking for more than they think they already know.

liquidity crisis....sssshhhhhhh

November 8, 1997
Three men in London court over U.S. bond scam

LONDON, Nov 8 ( Reuters ) - Three men appeared in a London court on Saturday on forgery charges after British police and U.S. secret service officers said they had uncovered a scam involving $800 million worth of fake U.S. Treasury bonds.

Briton Jonathan Stratton, 33, businessman Jack Yu, 45, who holds dual Taiwanese and American nationality, and American William Lester, 49, were orderd to be held in jail until a further hearing.

The three men were charged with offences under forgery and counterfeiting laws relating to the alleged use of 160 forged U.S. Treasury bonds. The three were arrested on Thursday after allegedly depositing fake Treasury bonds into a London bank.

Adam Cowell, lawyer for the three, said in a statement after the brief hearing that the men denied the charges. "We would wish to say at this stage that we have not seen any evidence to suggest in documentary or statement form that these bonds are not in fact authentic," he said.

Cowell said all three "utterly maintain their innocence." British police, who worked with a U.S. secret service agent in a 10-day operation, said the bonds in question purported to date from the 1940s but were probably run up on a 1990s computer.

LGB:
Now your nonsense is even pullung me in.
Puetzs statement of non-loyalty to the U.S. was not meant
against the country ( society/people ) , but of the G O V E R
M E N T. Use your holding in contempt remarks as
strictly singular, and not plural. You speak for no one but
yourself.

And I will expect you to honor your commitment to Mr.
Puetz that: I'll address no further commentary, discussion,
disagreement, or debate, in your direction. Maybe now
we can have a little peace.

Also, if the participants to this forum are as you consider, such idiots, then WHY are you
here? You have nothing better to do? I find that at the basis of your deductions, there
lies a very muddled selective logic.... a sheer waste of bandwidth.

When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume, among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed, by their Creator, with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, that whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles, and organizing its powers in in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate, that governments long established, should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accostomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object, envinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.

Donald, You're educating me. Could I impose on you to walk me through how convertibility would work. For example, could I buy Treasury paper and ask for gold on maturity? How about government guaranteed ( principle ) paper. How much "cash", as opposed to credit money now exists and how do you count it? Do FDIC guarantees count? Brady Bonds? Do social security "obligations" count? If I could clearly understand what is now out there to be backed, I think I could see the possibility ( however small ) of them doing it. Forgive me for being so dense about this.

SPEED: There is considerable misunderstanding about the original difference between commodity money and fiduciary media. This has led to a misunderstanding by most people as to the ways in which the "value" of the "monetary" unit can vary. In the end, a commodity money unit, like gold for instance, that NEVER changes in its amount available for utility, will only increase in value, require smaller and smaller divisions for transactions ( or fiduciary media divisions - ie, smaller denomination bills and notes as receipts ) , and will be effectively available for economical lending and priming of the entrepreneurial urge. This availability will come from the stored amounts of accumulated capital that humans and institutions love to amass, and the growing value of every particle of the existing commodity money. In a reasonably free society, HUMAN PROGRESS and intelligence, discipline, and risk will ensure the rise in the value of the existing static money supply. It is humanity which creates wealth, not money. In the case of a commodity money like gold, mining constantly adds the media to utilitarian use. The supply enlarges according to objective criteria, however, and is not subject to manipulation by forged notes in its stead. Actually, less commodity money will do the work of more fiat money, and will be somewhat more impervious to financial mischief. It is with the introduction of paper as fiduciary media, and then fiat media, that extreme imbalances of value can occur under surreptitous manipulation for the benefit of those in control of the government presses. For it is always the government that seizes control of the money of a nation. The reasons for which are obvious.

1. IT'S REALLY VERY SIMPLE ...

Modern economics has been portrayed as a highly complex discipline, fit only for the rarefied intellects of economics faculties to appreciate and understand... Its graduates bask in the reflected glory of their self-awarded status symbols, and, armed with the latest computer simulations, pose amid their jargon as the modern-day witch-doctors of monetary science.

But these economists' aggregate contribution to the betterment of mankind is in inverse proportion to the prestige and mystique they enjoy. Finding a better way of doing things has been the happy lot of contemporary industry, as a century of invention has done away with the need for drudgery, obsoleted the oil lamp, the spinning-jenny and the wooden plough. Only economics has failed to meet the challenge. The nostrums of "orthodox" economics dwell eternally on controlling wealth rather than expanding it, and forever look backwards to the problems of artificial scarcity on a planet which stands ready to give of its bounty.

Why? The truth is that there is a fallacy in modern economic thinking which, because it is never debated or subjected to scrutiny, eternally defies the most ingenious attempts at balanced growth and maximisation of
resources. That fallacy devolves around the creation of credit, and the orthodoxy which rules that new money can only be obtained as an interest-bearing loan from the banking system. Centuries of this practice have loaded the developed countries with massive national debts, and annual servicing charges which inhibit wealth production, thereby denying 20th century man the benefits of his own enhanced technology.

But even for economics there is a better way, and it's really very simple. Credit creation need not be a banking monopoly at all. Its privileges can revert to the people, through their elected state authority. This has already been done, for brief periods, and on well-documented occasions in Britain, America and Australia. On none of
those occasions were the beneficial effects perpetuated, because a Money Power jealous of its privileges seized upon the first opportunity to take back its monopoly, whilst an uninformed citizenry looked on in ignorance of what it had gained -- and then lost again.

That must change. And it can only change when an enlightened populace has been thoroughly alerted, and can both see and hear the issues openly debated. There are a hundred and one theories on money creation, and how
it can best be controlled by Government. The present system has failed and is causing the situation in human and environmental terms to rapidly deteriorate in developed and developing regions alike. It is essential that debate and reform should start now, before we plunge into the presently inevitable worldwide slump, worse than any before....
http://www.almac.co.uk/diversity/ossian/ossian11.html

what does gold have to do with oil prices?

LGB:Two of your posts today are obviously the work of a moron. Fiat currency and debt has provided the wealth and success that we have today?

The sheer stupidity of your comment makes you a fatuous idiot.. You have never read a book or are incapable of digesting facts. WHY did we have the depression. Read a book.

You trust humanities promise to each other. Go ask Pres Clinton if you can use that government debt charge card. Trust China, trust the Middle East, trust North Korea. Horsepucky.

The break throughs we have today are due to fiat money. You are nuts and have bought the whole enchalada hook, line and sinker, in fact you swallowed the pole and the fisherman.

I have a heart, and I am an American and I do not share your view one bit, nada, bubkiss, zero, zilch. Don't go lumping Americans for America against Mr. Puetz or what he stated.

America is a concept pal. You, your fiat paper and your phantom wealth were seen by the founding Fathers for what it is. The death of America. Read the Consitution pal. Read their writings.

Trust me, America is polarized and you are clearly part of the problem. It's the America you want. Keep it. I'll send you a file for the chains, you might make it to the ocean, maybe you and Yossarian can row to freedom. Oh, I'll throw in a silver dollar so you don't get to a free land and start out in debt.

I am an American, but you and I certainly do not agree. But, pretty soon, you and your America will want to rewrite history, We the people, think like us or else. And give us your real assets and we will provide you with our debt paper.

Phooey.

November 9, 1997 Predictions on Gold:

Who wants to hear what is really going to happen in the gold market?
The answer is more simple than you would have thought.

First, this talk about a conspiracy having to do with oil is
ridiculous. People who believe in conspiracies are fools. There is
no gold conspiracy just like there was no UFO over Phoenix.

What is going on is a smart market play. SOME of the central banks DO
want to sell SOME of their gold. They also want to get the best price
possible. How will they accomplish these goals?
1. Just like any other market, the gold marked is controlled by
supply and demand. Emotions may override this in the short term,
but supply and demand will always rule in the long term.
2. When gold was $400/oz., production and exploration were going
crazy. The supply would have soon been increased to meet the
demand. The central banks knew that if this happened, they would
never be able to unload some gold at a decent price.
3. The central banks have time on their side. In order to reduce
the supply, they simply have to reduce the price for now. To
keep the price down, all they have to do is sell some token
amounts of gold or, even better, just announce that they are
going to sell.
4. If they can hold the price down to about $300/oz. for at least 2
more years, the production by the mining industry will decrease
about 30%. There will be a lot of consolidation and mine
closings.
5. Once people realize that the demand has exceeded the supply, the
price of gold will rocket to about $500/oz. This is when the
central banks will come in and save the day by selling some of
their reserves over a period of about 4 years.
6. After the 4 years, the mining industry will be stronger than
ever and will have increased production enough to cover the
demand. The price will equalize at around $400/oz.

What does this mean to the small investor? Buy gold stocks or funds over the next few months. Use some dollar cost averaging. Why buy now when the big returns will not happen for at least 2 years? First, there is nothing else to do with your money anyway. The stock and bond markets are going to be lame over the next few years. Second, you must hold at least 18 months to reduce your capital gains tax. Finally, it is not going to get much cheaper, and where else are you going to have a shot at a 100% return over the next 3 years?

Carl: There are about $489 billion cash dollars circulating worldwide. A cash dollar is the physical banknote. Brady Bonds, Fanny Mae, T-Bills etc are all credit dollars. When your cash dollar is in your mattress it earns no interest but the U.S. Treasury has a gold dollar ready to hand to you on deposit at all times. Your cash dollar banknote is a receipt for that gold dollar. It is "as good as gold" as they used to say. When you decide it is safe to take it out of the mattress and earn interest you walk into your bank and open an account. Now the bank has the cash dollar, you received a credit dollar entry in your passbook. You and the bank have completed a loan agreement and you will receive interest for YOUR RISK. The banker can ask for the gold dollar now, not you. Should you decide that you want your cash dollar back you never know for sure that the bank can deliver. Your banker may have lent it to Donald Trump at a 10% markup over what they are paying you. If Trump is a good businessman and pays the bank back, plus interest, all is well.

Re your 13:54 Post. Enjoy the spice you bring to this forum and your various reality
checks and counterbalancing observations re relative mkt performances ( Dow versus
Gold Etc. ) But I must take issue with your statement  its Fiat currency and debt that has
provided humanity with the wealth and success we have today. First I would suggest it
would be more accurate to say that it was Easy Credit which facilitated the free-thinking
talents that provided the wealth Etc. But I would add that the subseqent abuse of this
Easy Credit has indeed created what is really a FALSE sense of wealth built on the
sandy foundation of mountainous debt.!

themissinglink: Try this link for the oil/gold explanation.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron1110.html

Look over the past issues. Can't say I agree with it all, but it is interesting.

LBG - you are so transparent. you are not only a grossly stupid person, but vile and vicious. your intent is to foment hatred against Puetz and others to draw attention to your own despicable self. truth be known you are a biggot

To themissinglink ( gold & oil ) :
I read that commentary that Speed recomended. It does not make any sense to me. Your original question makes more sense than anything. I think the real answer is that gold and oil have nothing to do with each other. Kind of like oil and water. Ha.

To themissinglink ( gold & oil ) :
I read that commentary that Speed recomended. It does not make any sense to me. Your original question makes more sense than anything. I think the real answer is that gold and oil have nothing to do with each other. Kind of like oil and water. Ha.

To themissinglink ( gold & oil ) :
I read that commentary that Speed recomended. It does not make any sense to me. Your original question makes more sense than anything. I think the real answer is that gold and oil have nothing to do with each other. Kind of like oil and water. Ha.

Down south the goldbugs are Hyper-vigilants, and it's OK for us to be that way as long as we're using our own money !

To themissinglink ( gold & oil ) :
I read that commentary that Speed recomended. It does not make any sense to me. Your original question makes more sense than anything. I think the real answer is that gold and oil have nothing to do with each other. Kind of like oil and water. Ha.

To: LGM@

By gar, you can really write!

In the spirit of friendly dissension, and because you yourself mentioned the Luddites, I would suggest to you that the British government did quite well under the discipline of a gold standard;
the British government issued consuls perpetual bonds. Fathers gave them to their sons, and those sons gave them to their sons, and the bonds actually INCREASED in value as time went on. Never sell consols, said Soames Forsyte, Galsworthys man of property.
And then, ...in 1931 the British let the pound float; they abolished its convertibility. It was not pegged to gold via a fixed exchange rate, and on any given day it would sell for whatever the buyers and sellers agreed on. The international monetary system collapsed. There was no key currency. Trade died. In the United States a quarter of the work force was unemployed

And then there was the Weimar Republic....

Regards

Donald, Can't anyone with a government check expect to be paid in "cash dollars"? So does this mean that, given all the government obligations out there, they only have to be backed by gold if people should happen to want their money in cash? How could that work?

Thanks CMAX. You've echoed my feelings exactly.

I just received a copy of the movie documentary, "Waco: The Rules of Engagement," developed by Hollywood left-wingers, and praised in reviews by the San Francisco Chronicle and Siskel/Ebert among many others. Thanks to one of the posters here for pointing me to this movie.

Just one highlight of the tape:
The developer of an infra-red imaging process used to monitor the church from the air during the fire ( on the back side hidden from news cameras ) stated that there were automatic weapons firing from positions behind the tanks at the Davidians as they tried to escape the fire. He also concluded from these tapes that the government started the fires but couldn't be sure if it was intentional. The FBI stated that what looked like gunfire was really reflecting light. The developer of the process countered that the FBI explanation was ridiculous.

To think that our government could do this to anyone, weirdos or not, and then cover it up with the help of the news media, has left me depressed for several days.

I read just recently that an FBI agent has been indicted for destroying evidence in the Ruby Ridge incident. Also, the sniper who killed Mrs. Weaver, who was holding her infant child, is coming up for trial.

Obviously, these are just crazy conspiracy theories, but this time even the left-wingers have gone looney along with crazies like me.

Puetz, please keep the information coming.

Under the constitution, the taking of private property for public use without just compensation. If the government wants to buy my gold at the height of the crash when gold shoots through the roof then that is o.k. by me.

If they plan to do it before the financial and equity market crash then that action in itself will trigger the panic and crash. It will signal the governments acknowledgement that fiat money cannot work.

Unilaterally fixing the gold price in this information age? Forget it.

They must stay their course and discredit gold but allow it to be held.

Steve
http://www.familyjeweler.com

November 9, 1997
Americans turned to new media to watch market turmoil-poll

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Concerned investors turned to new media sources like all-news cable stations and the Internet when the stock market tumbled on Oct. 27, a poll released Sunday said.

Nearly a third of people who said they followed the record-setting 554-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average closely first heard about it on all-news cable television, the survey by the Pew Research Center said. This compared to 17 percent who first heard about it on network television broadcasts and 15 percent on local television,
the survey said.

Although only three percent of those following the situation closely said they first heard about it on the Internet, this grew to 11 percent as the day progressed.

During the day, 35 percent said they used all-news cable, 26 percent watched network television, eight percent watched local television, 18 percent used the radio and 20 percent used newspapers. The percentages for sources used during the day adds up to more than 100 percent because many people used more than one source.

The Internet was popular with those under 30, and also the most educated and affluent of those polled. The bulk of cable news viewers were slightly older, in the 30- to 49-year-old age group, with at least some university education.

Network television was the medium of choice for the least wealthy and educated and also the oldest of those contacted. The survey of 1,000 adults was conducted over six days beginning Oct. 31. Online news providers such as Miami-based Trader's Haven ( www.tradershaven.com ) said the Internet was swamped with traffic that day.

"We noticed that most visitors were interested in market indices and currency exchange rates," Traders Haven President Luis Medina said. "This has resulted in some immediate changes to our web site to make this information more acccessible to visitors."

First, divide the world value of trade plus the aggregate Gross Domestic Consumption by the amount of gold avilable above ground. This is the new price of gold. Now if you want to deficit spend, sell promises to repay in gold ( bonds ) to anyone willing to give up their gold ( save ) for interest.

Growth in productivity will be reflected in gold price rises.

Whats the problem with that all you paper money contrarians?

Steve

LGB: Mostly I feel you've been overcriticized, and I've enjoyed the humor you inject into your attempts to argue against theories that you seem to regard as crackpot. But please, before you go on a long tirade about monetary policy, would you consider actually learning something about the topic beforehand? If you're trying to establish credibility as an exposer of illogical thinking, it may help if you know what you're talking about before you go on a tirade. I suspect it's arrogance that makes you think you're qualified to comment on anything. While you're educating yourself on monetary policy, ponder this quick summary of a typical criticism of fiat money.

A medium of exchange can serve its purpose most efficiently if its supply remains stable. For thousands of years, countless objects have been used as money, but gold most often emerges as the preferred one, in part because of its stable supply. If gold were worthless for industrial purposes, and if we regarded it as too ugly for artistic purposes, it'd still make an excellent money -- throughout almost all of the history of man's use of gold, the vast majority of the demand for it has been to use it as a form of indirect barter. With this in mind, one can imagine how much more convenient it'd be to use an intrinsically worthless object as money -- if its supply could be kept even more stable than gold, its use could result in an economy even more efficient than one that uses gold. The ridiculous claim you're making is that governments have succeeded in establishing such a currency. Government currencies have been far less stable in buying power than gold or silver or practically anything else you can think of. It's simply stupid to expect politicians to behave any other way. The reason many people advocate a gold standard is because politicians find it much harder to manipulate the supply of gold to their advantage. Personally I would be happy if governments completely stayed out of the business of issuing money; let the free market decide what it prefers to use. In any case you're making a very silly claim that government control of money has been good for the economy. First of all Keynes has been thoroughly debunked. Secondly, even if he were right, politicians wouldn't follow his reccomendations, and they didn't in the past, except for when they called for them to increase the money supply. How convenient.

To:6Pak@The Source of Reason and Civility

Kudos!

I think yours is the first mention of positive solutions, and in whose hands they might well reside. Discuss and Debate. Wasn't there something, along time ago, about an "informed" citizenry?

All- does anyone know when S&P500 futures start trading?? Is it when Nikkei opens??

Foilskov: Your argument about CBs driving down gold prices now to sell later has serious flaws.

Gold prices have collapsed this year for three reasons. Fear of large future CB sales. Accelerating global deflationary trends. And perhaps most important of all -- huge volumes of cheap CB gold loans to the short selling hedge funds.

Note that the CBs have not sold that much gold despite all the talk. If they really wanted to sell a lot of gold at the best possible price they would not constantly talk about gold having lost its status as a monetary asset. And they would not be lending out huge quantities of paper gold to the hedge funds.

No they want gold down to support the currencies and financial markets. Getting a good price for any gold they do sell is of secondary importance.

I agree that gold might stay down for quite some time. That is certainly the current goal of the western CBs. But then again it might not. With gold as cheap as it has ever been relative to financial assets and global financial turmoil escalating at an exponential pace, the CBs many not be able to keep control much longer no matter how hard they try. Too, if global deflationary trends continue to escalate, they might reverse course and push gold up again.

So gold could surge again for two reasons. The CBs lose control. Or the CBs may decide that higher gold prices best suits their purposes in a deflationary global economic environment. One of these scenarios is very likely to unfold in 1998.

LGB: You may be finished with your name-calling toward me, but I'm not finished with my debate toward you:

1 ) It was YOU who stated you do not fully understand our monetary system. I was simply repeating that you made this statement. Obviously, by your statements, you don't understand it. Maybe someone can help me -- by reprinting the LGB posting from 3, 4, or 5 days ago ( I think ) in which he stated he did not fully understand our monetary system. LGB, perhaps if you read my book "Total Collapse", you would finally better understand what's going on in the financial world. Essentially, you're a trend-follower, not an analyst who understands what's happening.

2 ) I place individual freedom above loyalty to a country. Patriotism has been the rallying call for many unjust regeims in the past -- including Nazism, Communism, and other socialist governments. Blindly following the directives of a government, just because a government says to is redicules. Everyone should live by the ideal that individual rights are more important than any group rights. Presently, the US government does do protect individual rights, it favors some groups ( receipts of government money ) at the expenses and freedom of others ( taxpayers ) . I will never blindly be patriotic to a government that continues to take away my individual rights -- which includes the right to my personal property.

3 ) As to the great country our forefathers handed us -- We have sunk to the level of relying on foreigners lending to us, so that we can maintain our standard-of-living. We have borrowed more than we earned ( as a country ) , for at least the last 15 years. Do you suppose foreigners will continue to lend to us indefinitely, so we can live high-off-the-hog while they sweat and slave to lend us more money? And when they stop lending, what do you suppose will happen? And if they try to collect ( get repaid ) on the money they lent us, what do you think will happen? I know the answers to all of them. Do you want to hazard a guess?

Carl: The only people who would qualify for gold would be the holders of the banknote receipts. Period. If there are not enough banknote receipts to meet demand the government must tax enough money to buy gold from gold miners and issue more cash dollar banknote receipts. Should miners not be able to meet the demand at the current price the government is forced to change the dollar-gold content. In effect a devaluation and acknowledgement of government failure. Using this test we have had a string of government failures since 1969, the last year of a balanced budget.

Public pressure on politicians would intensify immediately as the government sought to tax or devalue to meet these obligations. The direct and immediate tax results in an immediate outcry from the public. The stealth inflation tax does not. That is why government prefers the inflation tax. You will find that politicians will learn to act quite responsibly under this system.

We had a devaluation in 1933, another in 1971 and now we face a third. A pretty poor record for our century.

European citizens are allowing their CB's to sell gold before 'Euro' standards are discussed, What folly. The International Banking has no morals and their Soros's are destroying Asia Exchanges on marching orders to Destroy the Old World order i.e. China.
Saddam is deep CIA, He was created to stem the anti monarchy sweeping after the fall of Shah of Iran in the Region. In the 1980's all the aramaments procured by Iraq was bankrolled by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and all the Chemical and biological weapons supplied by 'Democratic and benevolent' West, Thus, Iran-Iraq fought a 10 yr War netting the International Arms Dealers $ 250 Billion ( spent pushing each other 5 or 10 kms ) . The point was to see nobody wins except the Western Arms suppliers. Why was Saddam not finished in the Gulf War, He is essential to keep the Oil producing Monarchies in check as immediate threat.
The current shenanigans are to send more forces in the area ( in addition to 100K already stationed with latest in high tech, USS Nimitz etc. ) to oversee that Oil and Israel is protected. They will move in when the Monarchy dominoes start falling. All this talk of Democracy is reserved for consumption of the naive, USA has propped up all the Kings there and US policies there have no design for Democracy nor is it useful. It is easy to control a Monarch than a representative Parliament.
Many would disagree with my assessment but tis the Truth ( ABC/NBC/CBS would feed bull to us all ) Since 1938 the Western Industrial growth has been achieved through cheap oil concessions. The 1973 Arab/Israeli War
changed the equation somewhat, wherein the arabs tried to show their net worth to the world through oil embargo etc.
What is happening now is carefully planned. This is a silent WWW3 fought on economic front as the "old World Order" i.e. China is still intransigient. Gorbachev ( His forehead had the breakup of Russia marked ) was successful in neutralizing Russia. Japan is in Meltdown since 1990, Asian Tigers neutralized. Watch the game.....

Isn't Kitco out of Canada? Wasn't Abraham disloyal to Ur ( Iraq ) ? As a Jew, don't I have the potential for dual citizenship? Aren't Catholics dually loyal to the Papacy? Isn't the melting pot appropriate for other democracies? Aren't all Americans former immigrants and therefore disloyal to their heritage? Hello?

Steve
http://www.familyjeweler.com

Steady, Globex starts trading 5:30 PM CST

Donald, Thank you for your patience. I must think on this now.

Mike Sheller: Thanks for your 15:16. You are right -- I may not be looking in the right direction -- and what I think I know may not be what I need to know! I figure if I have a few critical turning point dates, I will spend a little more time on those days to watch the market during my busy work schedule.
All: Any more comments on a US Market crash tomorrow? My guess is "no", mainly because this Weekend Barron's is generally upbeat, despite the comments by Martin Barnes that Donald has already posted. Even Martin Barnes, the editor of Bank Credit Analyst is not really that strongly bearish -- he is just saying that WallStreet underestimates the significance of what is happening in SE Asia. He also is saying that US stock profit will be flat from 4th quater 97, to 4th quarter 98 -- also that the US will not have a recession -- just a slowdown. He goes on to say that current market prices are overvalued. He does not rule out a crash.
There are two ways to read this. First, perhaps Martin Barnes does not want to be totally bearish because of the consequences on the markets if he does so, or secondly he really does believe that the US economy is still quite strong.
My take on this is that we will not have a crash on Monday, because there are too many baby boomers with retirement accounts that are still accumulating -- even if some of the "pros" are nervous. But we are likely to have a bear market for at least 6 months since earnings growth is going to be flat.
If we have a crash in the next few months, it will be because of some major shock: a key Japanese bank fails and we have a currency crisis, or that we have a severe oil price shock.
Nick ( @Aussie ) : I know this differs from your opinion -- perhaps your technicals are picking up some major twitches that will eventually lead to a crash if that next major shock occurs.

Nick, thanx! Your post at 02:10 said so well what I feel is happening in markets. I also very much agree that the game they play will eventually turn against them and they will loose control of the market. That will be the time when market will again be controlled by rules we can understand. I wish I knew how long it'll take to get to that point.

While we are on the subject of commodity vs fiat money, we must perforce take an automatic stand for or against "inflation." Not that this is the most important moral issue of the moment, but it does say something about the philosophical essence of a person when fully understood. OVER time, this IS a very important MORAL issue, because of the attendant motivations and social aberrations that inflation is constructed to fuel and satisfy. As Professor Murry Rothbard has stated so eloquently in his magnum opus "Man, Economy, and State," "...the most expedient definition of "inflation" is...an increase in the supply of money beyond any increase in specie" ( gold and/or silver ) . Rothbard goes on to say "The absurdity of the term "inflationary pressure" also becomes clear. Either the government and banks are inflating, or they are not; there is no such thing as "inflationary pressure."

It is clear that inflationism is a mode of thought that seeks to get something for nothing, or to appropriate value away from one class for the advantage of another. Inflation is always intended to benefit the initial receivers of the new money, and in that sense it is undemocratic, surreptitious, and a defilement of the responsibility government has to be the fair and aboveboard protector of rights and social "truth" to the degree truth may be at any time understood. When national treasuries, executives, and legislatures are a party to inflation they usually know exactly what they are doing. Thus they are violating the requirements of truth. A very serious social offence. Those citizens who truly believe that inflation by means of fiat money is a genuine benefit are simply uneducated, ignorant, and not qualified to either legislate or decide any issues relating to the progress and health of the society in which they live.

While Rothbard was even more narrow in his definition of inflation than his master, the great Ludwig Von Mises, his assessment clarifies the place that a natural commodity money has relative to receipts written against it ( notes ) and the eventual corruption of that convenience into fiat money, where only the receipt is utilized as the medium of exchange. This cannot contine indefinitely. Though when managed by an individual ( or individuals ) like Alan Greenspan, who is very knowledgeable concerning this process, in its praxeological, metaphysical, and philosophical contexts, the construction may be taken to unusual degrees of expansion. This is happening now.

I fully support Iraq in its current dispute with an arrogant and bullying U.S, despite my distaste for its current leader. What the mainstream press dare not discuss is the fact that the sanctions supported so fanatically by the Bush and Clinton have killed some 500,000 Iraqi CHILDREN since 1990. This is a crime of truly Hitlerian proportions committed by the "land of the free and the home of the brave. All for the sake of maintaining dominance in the Mideast.

Considering the enormous death toll inflicted by the sanctions, a bombing campaign would be just frosting on the cake. A small price for Iraq to pay in an effort to break or ease the sanctions. Especially at a time when international support for the U.S. on this issue has fallen off dramatically.

BTW, does not the fact that Bush and Clinton are following virtual identical policies on this issue tell us something about the current state of American democracy? We no longer have two parties in this country, but rather one party with two heads. The Democratic and Republican leaders agree on virtually every important issue. They are both owned lock, stock, and barrel by Wall Street and the Fortune 500.

LGB! I can't believe you can say the founding fathers would be proud of
our current government. Have you lost your mind? Assume for the sake of arguement that someone creates a time machine, goes back in to the time to the time right after the end of the Revolution, fetches George Washington, brings him back to the present day, and drops him off at Mt. Vernon, where George is allowed to resume his life as a plantation owner. It's now a year later and George gets his first vistor -
An IRS Agent. I think the conversation might go something like this:

George: Hello can I help you?

IRS Agent: According to our records Mr. Washington you failed to file a tax return last year.

George: A what?

IRS Agent: According to out records Mr. Washington, you "owe" the
government 40% of your income last year?

George: Owe the government? I don't recall borrowing anything from the government. Perhaps you best leave.

IRS Agent: Sorry Mr. Washington, I can't do that. If you don't pay this
"debt" I'll be forced to confiscate your property and put you in prison for
failing to file a return. If you resist, I'm authorized to use any force nessasary to make you comply. So don't slam the door in my face, I'll just kick it in. Do you understand?

George: This is obviously some sort of a Joke! Tell me Mr. Taxman, just what would you do with 40% of my income assuming I was to give it to you?

IRS Agent: It will be redistributed to those the government decides are more deserving of it than you are.

George: OK. Well tell whoever put you up to this, that this was a funny prank, but I'm a busy man, have a good day. ( At this point George shuts the door in the IRS Agents face. A moment later the IRS agent kicks in the door. ) .

IRS Agent: I told you not to do that Mr. Washington. Now don't do anything rash Mr. Washington, you wouldn't want me to have to use this.
( IRS agent pulls back his Jacket, showing the revolver on his side ) .

George: You sir have made a serious mistake ( George draws his flintlock pistol and puts a bullet in the chest of the IRS Agent ) .

Postscript: An hour later an FBI sniper puts a bullet thru George's head.

During a speach as his funeral, President Clinton remarks "He was once a great man, but over time he turned into a dangerious right wing extremist who could not, and will not, be tolerated in todays world.

Yeah LGB, I'm sure the founding fathers would be proud.

Your comments are why the collapse will SOO Shveet.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors
PS ALL my market timing indicators are RED! ( RED ALERT! )

You are Right, Bush was praying with Billy Graham, while 150,000+ fleeing Iraqi soldiers were killed, Saddam was untouched, His despotic rule never threatened. Werent we told that Saddam is the cause for all the mischief.
Figure it out. Norman Schwarzkof said on Larry King said "Taking Saddam out is not in out strategic interest, The threat of military might in the area is", Figure it out

MIDAS: You haven't lost the "touch." JTF: I fear the rally in stocks may be spent. It appears the S&P is ready to head down to 852 to test its lows. If this level doesn't hold, it's the 760's on the S&P 500 by January, where a new channel line comes into play for support at that time. Astrologicals also indicate a potential panic exhaustion in January as well. I was looking to more of an extended top, and still hope it unfolds, but next week will be very critical.

I'm really amazed at some of these posts I've been reading lately.
So much doom and gloom. He guys time to mellow out a little, your
going to put me back on the prozac again. Take the wife and kids
out somewhere, forget about the world situation for awhile. Sure we
all know It's not looking too great as of late, but there have been
worse times.I've travelled most of the world, and believe me some of
the things I saw made me appreciate the things I used to take for granted. I grew up in an area that had it's share of very wealthy people.
( my family wasn't one of them ) , and for the most part I found them to be
the most miserable people I had ever met, nothing was ever good
enough for them,most of there kids were either in trouble with the law
or on drugs.
Anyway getting back to what's going on today in the world, there are
some things that you or I will never change. It's ok to talk about it, but
don't make it an obsession. Don't misunderstand me, I'm not standing
with my face to the fan saying ok throw the bucket, but there's only so
much a person can do, to prepare for the oncoming changes that will
surely affect us all. Perhaps it will turn out to be for the best. A world
wide awakening is just around the corner I believe, we in the industralized
nations have been living "too high off the hog for too long".

Anyway enough of that, as for investments, I'm very heavy into gold
mining shares, but don't expect to see any profits for a year or two.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE.

SILVER: I think it might take less than a year for Mr Washington to realize that nowadays life as a plantation owner is not what it used to be. Otherwise I think his wisdom was immaculate.

US Govt has been staging 'events' that would result in World pouring Trillions in the coffers, But the Irony is the US Citizens would have to pay for the nefarious politics of these people. No one know what the Fed does with money from TBill sales ( 100+ Billion a week ) as there is no Auditing of their books, which is not allowed

Mr. Puetz - your 11/9/1997 16:45

Regarding an issue you raised in your 3rd point, and I quote,

"And if they try to collect ( get repaid ) on the money they lent us, what do you think will happen?

I hope the answer you have is not the same as the last part of George Washington's vision at Valley Forge. If so, paper assets will become so much tinder.

By the way, for those of you not familiar with Washington's vision, try the following.

http://www.amfam.org/resch/washvis.html

http://www.goldfever.com/goldfever/gwv.htm

Many reasons exist to buy Gold & Silver, Platinum and mining shares. Personally I'm bullish on Silver because of the dwindling supply fundamentals, and the fact it could be cornered at any time. Platinum has it's obvious industrial use base, tiny above ground supply factors, production problems, and rosy future as the most precious of the precious metals.

Gold and mining shares, well who can argue with GSC that the damn stuff is undervalued and must eventually make a turn up? Gold after all, is now worth perhaps 20% to 30% of it's real value from it's peak in 1980, relative to basic goods and services we all use. Housing, tranportation, energy and insurance, if we account for inflation in those items. It's a grossly undervalued asset if we look at it in historical terms, even when decoupled from it's historically monetary links to currencies ( which may never exist again ) .

Also, there is certainly some validity to cycle theories of markets. Speculative "bubbles" occuring which must ultimately be corrected with a downturn or a crash. These market anamolies occur in Gold & Silver, however, just as they do in Equities. One only needs to remember the Silver debacle of to recall how dangerous such speculation can be.

In equities, or commodities, it's the derivitave players, the currency traders, the big money gamblers who are causing massive inflows and outflows of capital to shake up Asia. The Latin and European world markest. The U.S. domestic markets. It's not the bullish "little guy" who supports the market with investment or retirement contributions who is causing the speculative "bubble". And it's not the "little guy" who is destined to get hurt when the market turns down. In the long run, the "little guy" will hang in there and make his profits without having to glean a perfect expertise of markets. He knows enough to believe in the economy and the prosperity of the people who populate his country and ultimately form the foundation of these markets.

Meanwhile, can some of us who believe in the long term health of our economy and Equities market, pull over to the sidelines, get our chips off the table, and look for opportunities in undervalued assets who's time has come? Like Silver & Gold? Of course! We'll let the greedy "professional's", the derivitave playing Moron's take this Equity market to it's final peak and into a receeding pattern, then we'll average back into the market we believe in. meanwhile, Metals pose a great alternative for value investing. Markets do go in cycles after all.

Analysts just need to adjust their "cycle" theories to account for a world economy, fast movements of foreign capital investment in and out of marketplaces, a new High tech. Era, and the many legislative changes such as "401K" plans, which will keep a floor under the market when it falls.

Difference of opnion certainly exist as to what investment strategy works best. WE have an example here on Kitco of someone who makes outrageously bad market calls week after week, month after month, year after year and yet is revered as some kind of "genious" for his fine "analysis" and expertise. Well, for you little guy's out there, don't be intimidated. In the long run you'll beat the phony "experts" hands down, using a little common sense, a quick adapting to market conditions, a willingness to be open to change, and a fundamental belief in your fellow man.

Wise advice Rumpled. You're words will fall on deaf ears however, as I've come to realize of late. Most Kitcoites greatest ambition is to see the final destrcution of humanity, and all that makes it great to be alive. That's what they live for. It's a sad commentary but true.

RUMPLED: You are absolutely right. But rest assured that just about everyone at Kitco gets a lot out of life, no matter what their circumstances. It's just that this is probably the only place people can come and indulge in a little gloom and doom after a busy schedule living, working and playing in the world. People don't like to hear this kind of talk in supermarkets, and friends stop calling after a while when you start talking about the end of civilization as we know it, or total collapse, or runaway idiocy, or something. They dont call it "great depression" for nothing. Besides, most of the people I hang out with day to day think of a car whenever I say "fiat."

Missinglink, my post was directed at a certain U.S. based snake oil salesman, not all Kitcoites. Sorry to be "U.S. centric" on a world forum, however, there are some fundamental beliefs one holds about one's country that can not go unstated when such slimy, scummy, and pointless things are said from a so called fellow citizen of that country.

What makes U.S. great is that we DO have the freedom to critisize and cnage our gaverment. We ARE the government. Critizing and affecting positive change however, is completely different from disavowing the country our forefathers fought, built, and dies for. Particularly when you consider what they ( and we ) have achieved since then.

Anyone who is a citizen of the U.S. who could now say "I have no loyalty to this country" is the lowest form of primordial maggot as far as I'm concerned. Such a one obviously has had life handed to them on a platter and knows not from whence it came.

The CB's are working in tandem on Gold ( inspite of their political and idealogical /National differences ) ., Why ?
Officials therein are subservient to carry out orders. Every system has an Association, Board, working Council etc.. The Biggest is the association of International Bankers who have created couple of safe haven's, For rest of the World, Money will continuously circulate to increase National Debt, Despots will paid off for their role ( Mobutu's et all ) which ultimately results in that Nation pawning all their Natural Resources. While within US people attention is focussed on equal rights for transvestites and Nanny trials.

A man may love his country, his fellow men, his Constitution, yet loathe the Beast that feeds & grows upon We the People from Washington, D.C.

Wrap yourself in something other than the flag, LGB. I suggest old newspaper.

Yes SIlver, George W. would blanch at IRS powers and confiscatory tax legislation but guess what? We've changed a lot of that in the past few years for the better, continue to make such changes via our vote and our activism, and even the IRS is now being brought to account for their errant ways.

We'll always have such battles to fight, that's what democracy ( or representative Republic for you purists ) is all about. Meanwhile, if George could see how much progress we've made in Human rights, civil rights, economic achievemnt, world leadership, destruction of truly evil empires such as Nazi Germany, and I could go on and on, he would indded be VERY proud of the U.S. today.

Don't put words in my mouth Spud, I have no love for slippery politicains. My posts make plain what I'm saying, twisting it into an love affair with D.C. politicians is simply disingenuous and you know it.
The point I made is clear and needs no further defense.

Just tuned in and haven't read what started this latest controversy, but I for one disagree with your 17:27, LGB. Sounds a little extreme to me. But of course this is just the opinion of some dumb Canuck.

Freedom in US is allowing criticism of Christ and Religion, try talking about Zionism and other subjects, You will be crucified.

Ted: did you get to watch the most exciting football game of the year or were you mesmerized by the hissing and spitting of the would be supporters of the last Super Power?

Any Politician which goes these 'NAFTA''s and Trading Bloc's will be nailed, This where Nationless International Bankers are taking us to the detriment of citizenery at large. They would like cheap labour supply dictated by Master's. Tis is happening Folks already

LGB: You get some rope and hang yourself. Now you are inventing history. George Washington, you are representing what his thoughts might be today looking at America.

Are there big magnets near your house?

LGB, it is clear you are an agent of hate, disinformation and diversion of focus here. You spread racist and anti-semitic discourse here in an effort to poison this forum. It is a complement that whoever your masters are, they feel the need to station a full-time mole here. This week will show your "100%" accuracy "record" to be nothing but blustering arrogance. Go and feed with your other lackey paper-vultures.

Final goodbye thoughts on Gold, Goldbugs, hardcore Goldbug investor mentality. No this is not a "cry wolf" exit, this will indeed be my last post.

To understand Gold, and the thoughts of Gold investors I first came to this site back in June and lurked it till August before posting. ( Hence the "Lurking Gold bug" initials ) I've always had an interest in Gold and Silver, as well as coins, and lately that interest has been renewed as the metals have become so undervalued. I also believe, like many investors today, that the stock market has become overvalued and more risky than it has in the past. The debates on these investment ideas were what I wanted to engage in here.

I've tried to post in a "contrarian" manner ( albeit admittedly with a hyper critical and condescending, or satirical tone ) . I wanted to draw out the best arguments I could for P.M. investment, and the rationale of the DOW bears, Gold bulls. A "Devil's advocate" method of learning in some ways, but a legitimate tool for trying to pry out best arguments from other's investment points of view. I admit I enjoyed some level of twisted humor along the way, perhaps inspired by incredulity at the massive level of nonsense I was reading here.

The reasons I am withdrawing from this site, have nothing to do with diversity of views on investment. They have nothing to do with market cycle theories, Bullishness vs. Bearishness, or the prospects for Gold, Silver, & Platinum. ( Which are presently quite good in the long term I think )

The comments that follow, are not directed at Gold & Silver investors, nor the well reasoned investors who diversify into the precious metals as undervalued, security, etc. I have enjoyed many of the fine people who have explained their arguments and rationale for such. Instead, the following are directed at the DieHard Goldbug mentality that I have railed against on this forum. The mentality that obviously dominates this forum. Namely, the underlying philosophy of hardcore singleminded, Goldbug investors, who despise both the U.S. and the world economy. It's quite obvious to all, which posters to whom I refer. Just a few thoughts.

1 ) The "Gold standard" everyone promotes here, would have brought us a post depression dark ages economy, had we kept it in place in lieu of the monetary expansion flexibility. A policy that has given us the greatest economy in the world and the strongest sustained economy ( and society ) in history. Has this completely escaped the notice of Goldbugs? The greatest wealth for the greatest number, that we enjoy is a direct result of our economic policies, especially the policies in place in the time since we decoupled from the Gold standard.

2 ) The mentality that built this great country is the exact OPPOSITE of what Goldbugs espouse. Entrepreneurial risk takers with borrowed capital built the strongest, most innovative, most productive economy of all time. These are the PRODUCERS and ACHIEVERS in our society. The dreamers who needed capital to bring their ideas to the rest of us. The folks who brought us the technical revolution. The cutting edge of some of humanities finest achievements in medicine, computer technology, transportation, et al. The massive investment into Equities has provided the capital to pull this off. The Naysayers of the Goldbug community apparently would have preferred the lifestyle of Neanderthal man. After all "If God meant men to fly..."

3 ) I find the constant stream of negativism here, the Luddite Flat Earth mentality, the gross twisting of facts and history, the hatred toward their own society, their government ( which is all of us ) , their country, their own fellow man's incredibly unprecedented success, to be perhaps the most offensive accumulation of destructive thinking ever concentrated in one place.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a realist who believes in facing up to problems and solving them, that's what my career involves. I'm happy to criticize our Govt., economy, business community, political entities, etc. where it's deserved, and where we can make positive changes. However, most of the folks here are TOTALLY incapable of understanding or appreciating what they have, how they came to have it, how to build on it, or how to enjoy it.

4 ) It's become apparent to me, that this site is mostly a group of extremist Naysayers, who's sole drive in life seems to be to denigrate every positive development that humanity has made. You people contribute nothing to society but a HUGE drag on real progress. I respect those who have built our country, our economy, our free society. The people who have done something positive with their lives and made a genuine contribution to progress. I completely disrespect the negative, unproductive, humanity hating, crises loving mentality I read here each day. I feel like I have to take a shower every time I read this site. I never saw so many, who so love wallowing in excrement.

I suppose that the Goldbugs would be happiest if and when we have a complete collapse of the world economy, the Ecosystem, the Democratic institutions that have given us the freedom and prosperity we have today.

This isn't going to happen of course, because MOST of humankind is striving for a better world and contributing toward achieving that goal. They'll make it happen, in spite of normal down cycles and in spite of a tiny minority of unproductive Naysayers.

5 ) Henceforth, I will not post again here. Sarcastic comments by Kitcoites about this decision are sure to follow, but I no longer care. I've never backed away from spirited debate. A free and aggressive exchange of ideas. I used to see this as a place to exchange investment views and dialogue. I no longer see it as such. ( Though certainly some fine people do lurk and post here, I am only of course refering my criticism to the DieHard Goldbugs who dominate the site ) . It's become obvious that objective rational thought is in extremely short supply here, so discussion has really become quite meaningless.

Diehard Goldbugs, keep championing and embracing all that's negative in the world and you shall reap what you sow. You shall create your own reality, in which you only will live. You are part of the world's problem, not part of it's solution. It's a pitiable philosophy of life, when one's sole goal is to hope for war, disastor, "meltdown" and destruction. The rest of us will continue to build, achieve, grow, and embrace the BEST of what the human experience is all about. Among our family, our friends, the society and government we are ALL responsible for, and yes, the country we inherited, and love.

My apologies again to all the many fine posters here, and fine minds to whom my comments do not apply. To those many others who for so long have been screaming for my withdrawal, it's not the debate from which I withdraw, I've always enjoyed the debate. But one is known by the company they keep, and I can no longer justify spending time immersed in such a depressing garbage heap.

Sadly, off to greener pastures that are not infested with Hoof & mouth worms,

LGB

I agree with the description of the one political party with two heads. Every oversight hearing I've watched, from Campaign Finance to Whitewater to Travelgate to Filegate to Waco to Ruby Ridge, has been a sham. And the only tangible IRS reform I think we will see will result from the Y2K problem.

Here we go again with the little guy holding up the market with his huge injections into the stock market. Wait until the average investor, who is convinced his returns will average 34% a year infinitum ( as we learned yesterday ) , gets a dose of reality.

Mooney, where is the Kitco Stock Site located? Thanks.

You have been well paid, no doubt.

LGB, The Strong system you speak of, see results, 'Asian Tigers' taken to the cleaners overnite. US is the largest DEBTOR nation in the world with IOU signed by citizens. There were great many civilizations like Egyptian, Greek, Roman, Babylonian, Mayan etc.. all destoryed now. Moral fiber is essentail in Economics too, My Friend. We are just delving in prudence of current system

Sniff. Sigh.

LGB, Sir. Farewell friend.

Midas, Mike Sheller: Could you clarify one item about Saddam Hussein for me? The following is my ( perhaps innocent ) impression: We were supporting Saddam ( including CIA ) , to counterbalance the threat of Iran. Saddam "got too big for his britches" and decided to take too much of the pie ( Kuwait ) . When we retaliated, ostensibly to free Kuwait and punish Saddam, we did everything we could short of overrunning Northern Iraq and overthrowing Saddam ( I thought ) because we did not want a power vacuum for Iran to move into. I guess the decimation of Saddams military was to neutralize him - including the 150,000 or so that surrendered. It seems to me that this strategy did not work very well because Saddam's weaknes has prevented him from canceling out Iran. In fact -- it may have pushed him toward Iran.
What I find hard to believe is the idea that we intentially kept Saddam as a continued CIA operative. Also didn't Saddam try to assassinate George Bush? I get the impression that there is some ineptness on the part of US foreign policy regarding Iraq -- we should not have allowed the starvation of the Iraqi children - for example. And we messed up the Kurd business badly.
But I find it unbelievable that Saddam is still a CIA operative.
Did I miss something?
What worries me far more is Iran, and the two russian submarines they have, as well as all of those missle-equipped tiny speed boats. Iran is far more dangerous, I think, especially if Iran decides to support Saddam during a conflict. And now the Saudis agree with the Iranis that oil prices are too low. Are the Saudis running out of money?
Wonder if Saddam has new projectile tube launchers underground where we can't see them. If he had the technology, and used "smart" projectiles, he might be able to launch ( and aim ) suborbital offensive weapons thousands of miles! I know orbital velocities can be reached with these devices, and the technology is disturbingly simple -- like having a cannon with explosive the full length of the barrel. This device might not work with Isrial, and he could only use it once. Frightening thought nonetheless.

Anyone want to bet that LGB will post again? Look for a reincarnated LGB under a new handle.

Dave in CO: I know what you mean!! I've been wiping the tears from my eyes also -- since LGB's departure. Poster has it right: LGB will emerge under a new handle, just like Hepcat did.

I have been reading your chats here for some time. Most interesting, although I am sure you guys/gals don't need my editorial comments. Does anyone have any predictions for the overnight action in Asia, and for us tomorrow in North America? My sense is that we are in for continuing trouble. Is there a real possibility that gold will be confiscated in the near future? As a bullion holder, I would resist most strenuously even though I am in Canada. I would look forward to any replies. My thinking is that a good defensive position now is to hold gold stocks, bullion and some oil/gas shares. Any other ideas?
Mo in To

And now it starts aonce again:

Australia All Ordinaries ^AORD 6:23PM 2478.0 -35.4 -1.41%

New Zealand NZSE 40 ^NZ40C 6:22PM 2416.01 -69.49 -2.80%

PS. Has the mysterious LGB really departed? I have been mystified as to why he provoked such vehement commentary.

All: I missed all the commotion with LGB. I'm disappointed that the new, improved LGB did not last. Some of what he said was of value -- it does help to have counterpoint with too many goldbugs and gloom and doomers, myself included. However - personal attacks are not appropriate, and we should all try to be consistent -- to try our very best only to tell the truth. I for one will apologize if I screw up.

I think you guys are wrong. LGB won't be back. His speech was too passionate. I for one am sorry to see it happen. Cest la vie, LGB.

I never understood it either, the vehemence. Seemed to me like he was just a voice of opposite opinions. Oh well, so much for diversity.

Maureen: Thanks for the post. We need more posters of the more gentle, durable sex. Colleen has a calming influence on the more rowdy irritating posters that occasionally frequent this site, and your presence will help I think as well.

Mo: I think it is highly unlikely that the US government would try confiscation again. There are some here whose knowledge of the markets you asked about are far more detailed than mine.

My general feeling from an eclectic group of reading materials is that the Asian markets are in a disasterous position, which will get even worse. The markets here I feel will erode seriously. Picking a day is near impossible. In general terms I for one feel that the US market is ripe for a serious downturn, a very serious downturn. The term crash will fit. The extent of such is beyond my capacities.

You seem to have a rational and balanced mixture. I for one would increase physical holdings of gold and silver, platinum as well, or be ready to do so if you see things that deeply bother your sensibilities.

Some good sites to visit:

http://www.gold-eagle.com

http://www.usagold.com

http://www.strategicinvestment.com

http://www.the-privateer.com

http://www.e-gold.com

Hope you find them helpful.

We kept Saddam Hussein in power because our frail, Arab allies insisted on it and because he is a complete buffoon. It is far better to have an idiot in charge of a belligerent country than a smart, capable leader. As to the Iraqi kids being denied medical and food aid, they could have had it all if Saddam had obeyed the UN sanctions. He is solely responsible for the misery in Iraq, not Bush or Clinton. He has spent millions on rearming Iraq when he should have been taking care of the poor citizens. Had he met the UN requirements, Iraq could have been pumping oil and buying all the food and medicine they need. Now Saddam wants another confrontation. The Nimitz will be glad to oblige. Fire when ready, Gridley.

JTF, Bit of History, Before Gulf War, Saddam met US Ambassador ( I forget the name of the lady ) wherein Saddam conveyed his wishes to squeeze Kuwait for more cash Donations as he was exhausted fighting the long War with Iran ( On orders from USA ) and USA realizing the devolution of Iran as a Force has been achieved where unwilling to bail Saddam out financially. In that meeting USA through the Iraqi Ambassador conveyed to Saddam that USA would not be 'involved' in a Regional conflict. Assurance for continued ploitical Support was indicated to Saddam as his reason for existence was to neutralize Iran and he had done a fine job at it. Kuwait was created by British when they divvyed up Trucial States in the region and WAS historically part of Iraq.
Hussein of Jordan tried to avert the situation. Mubarak of Egypt stoked the fires. Iran is no longer a threat to USA as after the Sha most of their US supplied Armaments became useless due to lack of parts or Service contracts with USA were declared null and void. Planes and Helicopters sat rusting due to strict World sanctions. Now Iraq is being used not for Iran but for Gulf Oil producing Nations like Saudia, Oman, Bahrain, UAE etc. to keep the Monarchies there in check..

LGB, I would like to say a few words on this subject. I came to the USA 18 years ago, easy to remember - my youngest son was born one week after we landed at JFK airport. I am Czech by birth, grew up in that country while it was under communist government. I left and came to the USA not because I wanted to improve my standard of living but because I wanted my kids to grow up as free people. I left everything behind, my culture, my language, my friends, my family, every "material" possessions. I came with pair of jeans and t-shirt. More like most founding fathers it was freedom I was looking for. I did not get my citizenship by birth, but I was proud when Ive got it and would do anything to protect it. Dont anybody try to tell me that I may not understand because my roots are not here. I am here by choice and I know how it feels when at your kids swim meet flag goes up and national anthem is played.

LGB, in those 18 years I saw alarming trend of more and more freedoms taken away from me. Freedom means you can make your choices and I saw more and more choices taken away from me and done by government. Whats even worse, if you dont like the choice done for you by your government, you are labeled "extremist" and government will use its power to enforce it. I see so many things which more and more reminds me government I grew under and ran away from to guarantee that my children would know it can be different. "We are the government" was traded long time ago for "just keep my pocket and stomach full and you can by my vote". I may be much more sensitive to it because I am still a newcomer chasing my freedom dream.

LGB, freedom and loyalty to you country is not expressed through big words. Just look at any politician - they can give you a big word speech any time you ask for it. Freedom is maintained and loyalty should be judged by individuals deeds. You can not judge that from posting on Internet.

Maureen: With regard to gold being confiscated, I think our US government would find it difficult to suddenly say that gold is a valuable commodity again. If the confiscation does occur, it will be only after most of the turmoil is over, because the current mind set will not change quickly. Of course if all the gold mining equities are equal in value to the total equity of Coca Cola -- it will take very little interest in gold to send gold stock prices to the stratosphere -- long before our government reallizes its folly.
Perhaps the gold guru's on this site will respond to your questions as well -- I am a relative newcomer.

JTF, the USA's lady Ambassador to Iraq has since resigned and withdrew from Public Life

JTF:

Having been attacked personally by LGB and read many other exchanges, I saw most of the Kitcoite responses as defensive. Venom was LGB's defense against tough questions.

I think he couldn't handle Puetz's post on Nov. 09, at 16:45.

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971107/business/stories/japan_1.html

Don't talk to me about love of country and all that other BS. This country has more to worry about than few goldbugs. It's greed and a selfish society thats killing this country. How many people would you think are up to there butt in debt financing this glorious stock market you so love. If the market had grown at reasonable pace, there probably wouldn't be so much negativity on this site. Just maybe, there's a few people around that know that society always forgets and history usually repeats itself.

The current crises in SE Asia is targetted for China. Elsewhere, Poland and other currencies to tank soon

Mikee: Don't be fooled by LGB. He threatened to leave Kitco once before with a passionate speech, only to draw sympathy from a number of Kitcoites. It seems he's trying the same sympathy play again. Some of us have long memories. LGB reminds me of a neighbor kid from my youth -- who picked up his toys and left whenever he didn't get his way. It seems LGB is just off pouting for now. He'll be back with a new handle shortly.

They Can't Take 'em Up!

It's always hard to take 'em down, but this week they either can't
take 'em up, or certainly can't keep 'em up. And that's not good.
Supply easily exceeds demand in this market, which is more
important than probably hits most investors at first blush. Gene Inger shares his stock market wisdom with us:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger1107.html

Midas, Speed: Agree with your assessment of Saddam. He has the uncanny ability of hardening the opposition just at the wrong moment when it is softening. I can't imagine anyone more inept at foreign policy. He could be dumb enough to repeat the same military tactics he used in the Kuwait war. He does seem very good at surviving assassination attempts, however. Almost as if he has someone or something watching over him.
Midas -- I am not so sure Iran is harmless with no spare parts for their US equipement. Russia, China, and ( I think ) France are coming to their aid. Doesn't France have access to US military spare parts? How badly do they need oil?
I suspect that Iran has enough money to replace most of their US equipment -- and they can get the best Russian stuff for almost nothing!
What would you say if Iran, Iraq, Syria and Egypt had a secret alliance? Also Saudi arabia's new leader does not seem very pro-US. I see our influence in that area waning, and I don't see our commander-in-chief in the military role. Might do something dangerous too if his public opinion polls falter, or the market falters. Noone will complain about a falling market if we have a Middle East crisis! Comments, anyone?

SURVIVAL STRATEGIES

Ordinary folks learn to ride out hard times


Go to a quick list of money-saving tips

BANGKOK TRAVEL AGENT SOMPORN Jarusolot has happy memories of Europe.
But during a visit to the continent with Thai clients last month, he noticed a change in their habits.
They were constantly whipping out their calculators to check prices in baht terms -- and were
invariably disappointed. With the baht's devaluation, it had become just too expensive to shop
abroad. "My clients are not able to spend like they used to," says Somporn.

Like the Thai travelers, millions of people in Southeast Asia are reeling from the region's plunging
currencies and market crises. For Somporn, food and petrol costs back home have gone up so
much that he has little left to deposit in the bank. Mary Ann Mabuti, 33, an assistant in a ceramics
company in Manila, has an even tougher time. Her bills for fresh food and commuting have shot up
a staggering 50% and 60% respectively. "And that doesn't include the groceries," she says. "We
have already begun to dip into our savings."

Even the more well-off have had to economize. To reduce their financial burdens or pay off debts,
some Thais have placed their snazzy cars on auction at a weekend bazaar run by a Bangkok car
dealer. On offer is everything from Rolex watches and luxury sedans to a four-seater aircraft at
reduced prices. The Sukhumvit market is popular with the middle class, which has been forced to
compromise their living standards more than any other sector of the population.

What can the average executive or professional do to cope? Quite a lot, it turns out -- if they adopt
some belt-tightening measures. But first, says Peter Garucho, president of the Manila-based Viking
Motors, hold on to your job, especially if you are short of cash or have debts to pay. "Do not
resign," he urges. At least, not without securing other employment. The reason is simple enough:
companies are more likely to be downsizing instead of expanding, and new jobs will be few and far
between.

Garucho offers more advice: buy local instead of imported goods. For Filipinos, domestic products
have never been cheaper compared to the foreign stuff. This is because most local merchandise
currently on shop shelves was produced before devaluation, when interest rates were much lower.
Many manufacturers prefer to sell at a discount to maintain cash flow, rather than take out
expensive loans. For example: Jose Alvarez, president of Manila car assembler Columbian Motors.
Alvarez was so keen to offload his vehicles that he recently offered a free sports car with the
purchase of an expensive van. "It's better than paying high interest rates," he says. Banks demand
as much as 34% interest on borrowings -- up from a maximum of 20% before the devaluation. The
cost of imports has also shot up because of the rise in exchange rates.

Going domestic has another spin-off: it helps local industry and jobs. But if you must buy foreign
merchandise, do so now, says Edwin Fernandez, president of Urbancorp Capital Markets Group
in Manila. The full impact of the devalued peso will be reflected in higher prices of imported
products within six weeks.

Investing in blue-chip stocks may be a sound option, particularly in the Philippines where the bourse
is more stable than in Thailand. Put your money in export-oriented companies whose goods and
services will be more competitive, or whose earnings are mainly in U.S. dollars, advises Val
Araneta, executive vice-president of the Philippine National Bank. His list includes San Miguel,
Meralco, Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. and Ionics, the semi-conductor exporter. Their
stocks are trading at very low price-earning ratios. But the key is to take a long-term view. "In a
year's time," predicts Fernandez of Urbancorp , "you will gain in excess of 30%."

Other tips: cut back on vacations and entertainment, and plow the savings into the local economy.
Look out for opportunities springing from the cheaper domestic currency. Besides stocks, people
can invest in government treasury bills which yield an interest of 15% in the Philippines -- 9% higher
than inflation. For those who have one million pesos ( about $29,000 ) to spare, Fernandez
recommends fixed deposits of one year to 18 months in banks that offer 17% to 18% interest.

From the prudent use of credit cards to buying dollars, there are various ways to protect your
earnings in an uncertain economic climate. Ingenuity and persistence also help -- as Cristina and
Roberto Delgado demonstrated. A few months ago, the couple rented premises in Manila's pricey
Makati district and went on a hiring spree as their gift and stationery supply business boomed.
When the devaluation hit, the Delgados rolled with the times. They simply gave up the office and
began operating from home. In this case, it was almost business as usual.

-- By Ajay Singh, with reporting by Wilhelmina Paras / Manila and Julian Gearing / Bangkok

MONEY SAVERS

Buy needed imports now before the devaluation really sinks in

Beat inflation with high-yield treasury bonds and time deposits

Invest in blue chips and export-oriented companies

Settle credit card bills on time to avoid penalties

Japan just opened down -188

JTF: All of the good news is in for the Mideast. The most important factor now is the perception of western resolve. If Europe and the U.S. can be blackmailed, bribed or threatened into backing off, then a major dust up is certain. The next generation of Saudi leadership is pro-Iranian. I am watching for realignments between the house of Saud and Iran, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt as you suggested.

I am agnostic on whether or not the stock market will crash this week. But there is little doubt that risk far outweighs potential rewards at these still very inflated levels.

One thing I am 100% certain of though is that many will lose all their bull market gains and then some over the next 12 months or so. This will include a lot of smart people who don't think it could ever happen to them. But they are going to find out the hard way that the old rules just don't work anymore.

A.Goose: You're right -- Here we go again. The markets are getting goosed once more. Australia -1.3%, Japan -1.3%, New Zealand -2.6%. It ought to be another interesting evening.

NEWS FLASH: S&P futures open -2.80 in over-night trading.

If the CB's stop lending 'paper gold' to big hedge, derivate players, you will see it rise dramatically. A run on the physical will unravel this shenanigans. As the Demand is more than supply, check it out

Miro, are you by chance from Brno????

SPEED:

YOU DO THAT, BOY.

AND DON'T FORGET TO TAKE YOU QUAYLUDES!

George Cole: Thank you for your thoughtful comment on the markets. I also think it is premature to expect a crash tomorrow, or anytime soon, unless we have a financial crisis triggered by the failure of a key world-class Japanese bank. I still have trouble seeing how Warren Buffet can be so sure interest rates will go down ( deflation ) , and not up ( financial crisis )

I have a question, re ANOTHER's comments: If gold bullion liquidity were, say, vanish tomorrow, and there was a run on gold, how high would it go up before non-central bank sources opened up? I can't imagine it will go up without limit, and gold will cease to trade. Unless there is a financial/derivatives crisis at the same time. Thanks in advance.

http://www.businessweek.com:80/1997/46/b3553199.htm

November 9, 1997

Saddam says Iraqis must choose between 'sacrifice or slavery'

BAGHDAD ( AP ) - Iraqi President Saddam Hussein declared Sunday that his country had "to choose between sacrifice or slavery" and suggested that
a confrontation might be inevitable. Iraq has "been put in a position where it has to choose either to live honorably and with dignity or to face all the possibilities," Saddam said in a statement read on Iraqi television after a meeting of the ruling Revolutionary Command Council.

Saddam reiterated Iraq's complaints about the inspection teams and said
little had come of Iraq's co-operation since the Gulf War. "This path ... has not led us to any result, and there is not the least hope that it will lead us to any result. Nobody, however, can say now that this new path will lead to nothing," he said.

"We have to choose between sacrifice or slavery," he added in the statement, which was carried by the British Broadcasting Corp. But, as Iraqi officials have repeatedly done in the past, Saddam said a confrontation could be avoided if Iraq was provided an alternative that is "specific, clear and concrete." "If no solution provides these conclusive and clear answers for us, then the path we have chosen is the irreplaceable solution," Saddam said in the statement.

The Iraqi National Congress, a London-based opposition group, said Iraq
had put its military units on alert, cancelled military leaves and dispersed its tanks into small units, some of them hidden in civilian areas. There was no confirmation of the report, which the group said was based on sources in Baghdad.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Iraq-UN.html

Speed, Saudi Arabia was/is/will remain staunchly aligned to USA. Saudi's will NEVER buy Iran model ( From Riches to rags ) . I worked in Mid East for better part of my Life and see much MISINFORMATION in US Media.
All AGCC Countries are heavily US Dependant. US will never allow Oil to fall into alien hands, Every other b/s in the media means nothing

Puetz - regarding your 19:02 post concerning LGB:

You're too kind!

LGB, take another LONG vacation to Tahoe and THIS time - DON'T COME BACK!!!!!

And take that sickly PUKE, SPEED, WITH YOU!!!!!!

Bill, indirectly, my roots go to Brno ;- ) While I was born in Praque, my parent were Moravians. My father was from Brno suburbs ( still have family there ) , mom from Uherske Hradiste.

Avid chatter

excert from article appearing this week in Barron's on-line.........care must be taken not to take this excert out of the context of the entire article ( interview ) : from interview with Martion H.Barnes editor of the Bank Credit Analyst in Montreal. Q: What's the bottom line, for stocks? A: Equities remain in a high-risk zone. Valuations are too high and there's widespread denial about the true cause of the recent market turbulence. Leverage, measured as margin debt as a percent of GDP, is at its highest levels since the 1920s. And we will only know the true extent of the other sorts of extreme leverage being employed in this market after prices drop. So, could the market suffer a major crash? It's certainly a possibility, given current levels of overvaluation, speculation and complacency. But it's also possible, as the corrosive effects of global deflation become more evident here, that the U.S. equity market just goes nowhere for a while. Maybe the adjustment will come through time, rather than price change. That would be very debilitating on people's psychology toward the market, given their buy-the-dips mentality and overblown expectations for 34% annual returns. But I don't feel any necessity to be super-bearish.

Q: Okay, but why should anyone here -- except investors in or suppliers to those companies -- worry? A: First, because the full extent of the economic damage from the decline in emerging Asia's currencies and stock markets will only become apparent over the coming year as real-estate markets crumble, undermining banking systems and consumer and business confidenceand as their domestic demand contracts, leading to a major downturn in 1998-99. Second, the region's excess capacity and high inventories point to downward pressure on traded goods prices -- in other words, to intensifying global competition. That's good for consumers, but not so great for corporate earnings. And it's not going to go away overnight. It's not a simple business-cycle problem -- like excess inventory. Every Asian country is going to look toward exports to drive economic growth over the next couple of years. But to where? The U.S. and the U.K. are the only major countries with strong domestic demand growth-and in both, growth seems likely to weaken. Thus, another round of competitive devaluations can't be ruled out-possibly extending into Latin America and Eastern Europe. Finally, this all feeds back onto Japan, which is already extremely weakand now we're talking about a meaningful percentage of the global economy. Japan is the second-biggest industrial country. China, of course, is still an enormous question, but the origins of the region's competitive devaluations go back to its 50% depreciation in the renminbi in late '93. Anyway, now virtually the whole of Asia is feeling the effects of this. We're seeing some impact on Latin America. And Europe was struggling, even before this happened, certainly in terms of its domestic economy. So all of a sudden, you are talking about large parts of the world that are not looking so good. Q: Yet you're saying deflation won't spread here? A: I don't think it's right to say we're going to have deflation in America. But we are going to have a squeeze on profits, as a consequence of what's happening in Asia. Those countries are going to be exporting like crazy, at a time when Europe is looking to its own exports for growth, as is Canada. So who's going to be importing all these exports?

.Q: So you're predicting a U.S. recession in '98, just not deflation? A: There's no current indication that a U.S. recession will unfold next year -- but the case for a slowdown -- say, GDP growth of 2% or less for a few quarters -- in this country is compelling. Now, that's not a disaster. But it won't be surprising to hear increasing talk of a global recession as the economic consequences of Asia's woes become more apparent. So it's plain wrong to argue that economic conditions justify current valuations. Q: Look on the bright side, though. Now the Fed doesn't have to tighten. A: Which is what the Fed chairman was referring to in saying the latest market drop might eventually be seen as a "salutary event." But there was an eerie parallel between Greenspan's comments and John Maynard Keynes" suggestion, in October 1929, that the Crash was a beneficial rather than evil event. I'm not trying to suggest that we're heading into a 1929-style debacle. I am suggesting, though, that even top financial leaders can totally misread a situation and I'm warning that their reassurances may create a deadly trap for investors. Picture: [Unrealistic Target] Q: Keynes was scarcely alone in misreading the Crash, as we recall. A: Right. The '29 Crash happened on a Tuesday, but the market had been very weak the week before, particularly on that Thursday. Which was when J.P. Morgan and other bankers got together and came up with a bailout fund of $20-$30 million to try to support the market. As Bob Sobel wrote in Panic on Wall Street, it was assumed that "once the public learned the "big boys" were behind the market, confidence would be restored and normal buying would resume." And the market did rally that Friday. Then, over the weekend, President Hoover told the country that "the fundamental business of the country -- that is, the production and distribution of goods and services -- is on a sound and prosperous basis." Again, the parallels with recent experience are eerie: IBM's move to buy back its shares played a key role in restoring confidence and helping to trigger the market rebound on October 28. And of course, President Clinton -- like his predecessor -- issued a statement about the strength of the economy. Let me stress again, I'm not predicting another '29-style crash, but it's interesting to see history repeating itself.

I opened a futures acount in late September. October taught me that if mf's are playing with matches, options are playing with a blowtorch, and futures are playing with nukes.

just read this morning's posts and saw your futures=nukes analogy. I overheard a trader trying to explain why not to bother with options because of the premium decay and if you believe the market will go in a certain direction then you should use futures. This poor lady had no clue and after several attempts to try and explain the differences he gave up and said ......"options are like marijuana...... ( paused as he grasped for a comparison ) ....and futures are like heroin". It didn't help much, but it sure made for a lot of laughing from those listen in.

6pak, Iraq is finished as a Military threat, They cannot feed the people let alone fight. He is doing exactly as US wishes in the region, that is to provide pretext to increase the already substantial Military presence, and pulverize the region when the time is right. All that is happening has been timed for rapid changes that will occur soon on the world stage

http://www.rferl.org:80/nca/features/1997/11/F.RU.971105154923.html

Nikkei down 150. Miro re. your 18:45 post - well said!! Ahoj!

Mikee - don't kid yourself about LGB's "passionate" speech - check the posting times of his last magnum opus, and his penultimate post: 16 minutes flat to crank out his "passionate" opus of several pages. Either he's a flawless, god-like typist, with a clear outline in his head ... or else it was pre-canned prole-feed waiting for the right moment to dump on us. I am not falling for it for a moment. He's here not to provide instructive counterpoint; he's here to inject fear, doubt & uncertainty. Whoever's running him is afraid of the Kitco board ideas concerning gold & the coming market collapse. We have to be neutralized, silence, ridiculed. The public ***MUST*** not have another perspective of the BS-world that Greenspan, Rubin and the Clinton carpet-bagger team have built. The public's opinions ***MUST*** be controlled. Control = power. The loss of a Free Press in America really was the beginning of the end.

We let Saddam survive because we used NATO bases in Turkey to prosecute the air war against Iraq. When the Kurds rose up to march on Bagdad, the US didn't lift a finger to keep Iraqi attack helicopters from massacring these Kurds whom the Turks feared due to their own Kurd minority "problem". The US and Turkey were then paid back for this treachery when a Kurdish faction turned to Saddam himself for help in gaining supremacy along the Iraq/Turk border. Fresh Iraqi equipment and perported commando units turned the tide in that conflict. After a 12 month brokered ceasefire, the fighting has resumed and the Iraqi backed Kurds look to be winning.

6pak: Saddam might well decide to go down in a blaze ( ??of glory?? ) since he presumably does not expect the oil situation to resolve during his reign in Iraq. He certainly does not care for the safety of his people. I wonder who else he can immolate, beside himself?

6pac, Your post on Iraq makes me wonder if there is an internal threat there. Tanks in civilian areas???

does anyone know the spot now, before hedge funds/derivates kill it in NY

Belcher: Please keep in mind that this is an International forum and not your local bar. Incidentally, Quaaludes are not needed. I recommend you purchase a spell checker or at least a pocket dictionary and there is no need to yell.

Midas: The U.S. certainly failed to protect Kuwait and may fail to keep Iranian tanks out of Riyad. The Saudi regime which you remember is failing and will change soon. I will post some URLs of non-mainstream sources later. Whether or not the monarchy in Saudi fails, they are weak
and that is why resolve on our part is vital. If we hesitate, they are lost. Iran recently completed military exercises with over 200,000 troops with tanks, missles and planes. They will not make the same mistakes as Saddam.

November 9, 1997
Veterans take on old battle role - this time for unity

OTTAWA ( CP ) - They fought for Canada in the First and Second World Wars and in the Korean War. They travelled the world and risked their lives in their country's name. They endured harsh conditions and saw their fellow young soldiers die on foreign soil.

Today, war veterans are taking on a new challenge. They are willing foot
soldiers for Canada's unity - and they have every intention of winning their new battle.

The Royal Canadian Legion's Guardians of Unity program will see to it
that all legionnaires will do their bit to make sure the country they fought wars for never breaks up.

"They first defended Canada under fire and now they are committed to
safeguarding Canada as a whole unit," said Bob Butt of the Royal Canadian
Legion, which has spent over a year putting the campaign together.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/NationalTicker/CANOE-wire.Veterans-Unity.html

Puetz -- I told you LGB was gonna get mad. :- ) ) ROTFL :- ) )

Miro. Thanks for the reply. I have a pen pal in Brno, I visited Brno & Prague in 1992. Love the Chek people ( food to ) . Spent an hour on the "bridge" in Prague listening to the musicians. I will probably go back next year. I wanted to visit Terplice ( I was studying Masonic history ) but did not have the time.

Midas-spot down $.80 to $309.50

Speed, Iran is in Solitary confinement, a media figment of a threat, USA rules Militarily/ Financially from Asia to tips of South Ameria

Steady, Thanks...I hope that it rises, Asia should buy, Tbills may their folly

A divided House near vote on 'fast-track' trade
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/politics/110997/politicst_5967.html

New storm approaching battered Mexican coast
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/110997/world29_28706.html

A bumpy ride ahead for stocks
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/110997/bizm_29533.html

LGB
Regarding your recent farewell post on Sun Nov 09 1997 17:56, you are a COMPLETE HIPPOCRITE! You are exactly THE PROBLEM in America. You behave without discipline or prudence. Your vindictive towards the ideas of others and did nothing but criticize and attack other contributors. You build yourself up as some sort of sage.

Your actions and behavior on this site has shown the nature of the true LGB. It was hard to value any of your opiions coming from someone of your stature. You planted a seed on this forum and it died.

Your presense here served only to attack the credibility of the value of this site.

Maybe you have learned something, but your farewell post says not.

Two more words.

GOOD RIDANCE!

So the notorious LGB is gone ( guess the George Washington/IRS post was just too much for him ) . I think LGB was telling the truth when he said we "scared" him. I think we scared him because he was starting to see the logic of our arguements against him. For what it's worth LGB, it's normal to be scared when you take off the rose colored glasses for the first time and see reality. So LGB, what now? Will you put those rose colored glasses back on and try and forget this site ever existed? Looks like that's what you have decided to do. I never would have figured you as one to take the easy way out.

Midas, I differ with your outlook on Saudi Arabia. The Sultan of Arabia's son and likely handpicked heir to the throne is clearly anti-American. Further, the sultan himself is aging and ailing. It's only a matter of time before this pot of trouble comes to full boil.

Midas....Carl....JTF WHY? WHY?, WHY?, do the citizen's of the USofA allow this madness. The USofA citizen is known as the Free & Brave. WHY???????

I just met myself in the hall. Now I don't know if I'm coming or going.
The real me posts under the same ID and now my real email address is affixed for the person who is posting impaired.


Midas: Try this guy's site and ignore the sales pitch for oil strips.
http://www.subscriptions.com/beacon/oilwar.html

Gusto, They always fall in line, It is as easy to bump King Faisal ( remember ) as it is to Vince Foster

6pak, We allow it because ordinary people a fed a 6pack, a TVe and Tranvestite rights on Geraldo

And I said, "Let there be spin"; and there was spin. And I saw that spin was good. And I separated spin from truth. I called the spin Light and
the truth Darkness. And then there was a paradigm shift.

LGB has a massive chip on his shoulder and has repeatedly ridiculed, denignated and attacked those who he finds pique with ( at the time ) . It was not his ideas which provoked many here but his "style". To my observation there was an emotional agenda which had nothing to do with rationalizations. No doubt LGB is a fine man, husband and father. Unfortunately in this setting little restrained him from venting his often abusive speen.

To my mind anyone who gently engages in discussion and dissention will be respected by most reasonable people. It is to easy to alienate others. Our relationships are more important than specific areas of agreement or disagreement.

Japan +20
OZ +2
Korea +2.5%

Can anyone guide me to a site where spot prices are available now, Thanks

I've been at this site for 18 months. Posters come and go.
If you don't like someone's posts, just don't read them and don't reply.

Inflation is simply institutionalized theft by the government. Those most affected by it are the poor, widows and orphans. There will be no mercy for those who have no mercy. Monetary systems which are free to invent their own values, rather than be bound to an absolute standard will by their very nature destroy themselves. The fowler will be caught in his own snare; those who dig a pit will fall into it. That is not a historicism, it is the Law of God. Someone we have tried to evade for to long.

Internationally acclaimed market analyst, James Dines, shares his insights and foresights with us about current currency crisis.

Asia is awash in hammered & cascading currencies. The deluge of devaluations in South East Asia is spilling over into other countries on the opposite side of the globe -- and will wreak havoc in world stock markets. The Currency Contagion continues unabated...
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines1110.html

Speed, Thanks for earlier, But couldnt get in

TO Shek;
Gold bout' to break below $300.Hope you got your money ready.
Not quite $1 yet but its getting closer.

Midas: Try it later, I just tested my post and it worked. Here is another site far more intense: http://www.saudhouse.com/index.htm

Midas: You may find what you are seeking here:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

Looks like Tank Girls gonna get more R.F.A. http://www.abc.net.au/ra/newsrael/rael-10nov1997-23.htm

Mikey, its you again! Good to see you.
Not there yet. Next week!

Mikey, Dont scare us, What gives. The European currencies are gonna Tank soon

Mikey, Read that as "eastern European" or ex-soviet

``I think the right thing for America is to continue to tear down the trade barriers and sell more American products, to try to lift up labor and environmental standards abroad,'' Clinton said on NBC.

Translation : Let's keep U.S. labor intimidated while importing cheap goods from abroad.

LGB prefers the more irresponsibe manner in which the world's economies have conducted themselves. The fruits that he suggests it offers are made available to a wider world populace than would otherwise be the case, including those who need only sit and wait for those fruits to fall in their idle laps. I'm certain he prefers it that way. Money for nothing you know.

Lord help 'em when they are forced through scrutiny to conduct both work and trade from a more honest and genuine platform, whatever the means may be.

I have watched individuals for many years develop the deceptive rhetoric that serves only to elevate their own egos and convince their uneducated audiences that, somehow, these individuals are an intrinsic element in any success that might greet them.

Woe unto them all.

Midas-How about http://www.kitco.com/gold.live.html

http://www.abc.net.au/ra/newsrael/default.htm

Right ON! Allan ( USA ) - I agree:

LGB was a Blurting, Obnoxious, Ignoramous ( his style that is ) !

Now, if LGB had the GUTS, like many on this forum, to use his REAL NAME and E-MAIL: ADDRESS, he would have been behaved and accountable for his words.

But, fool yourselves not, LGB will be back under a new pseudo-name blabbering his same old worthless, vindictive opinions.

Andy Rooney's advice on the stock market...."Don't take anybody's advice."

Does anybody know when the fastrack vote will be in?

I kinda liked the way the media showed pizza boxes being taken in to the hard working politicians. I guess they wanted labor to know they have to eat take out too.

TO Midas ;
I believe you are talking to the wrong guy. I'm Mikey. He's Mikee.

While it is great to be able to engage in phylisophical debates, these tend totally side track what most of us Goldbugs are here to do, to exchange information views predictions etc.
We are much better off without the likes of Lgb or Hepcat taking up space, and starting useless debates about points that are ever so obvious to the well informed and open minded. Good riddens.
It is certainly ok to be bearish on the PM's ( as I have been for the last little while ) , but if you only view Gold as a commodity in a world full of commodities, I don't think you will stay at this site for long.

Both head for destinations..
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101a.htm...
thinking...thinking...

TO JTF ( re: 19:06 ) ;
Saddam is there for a purpose. To stimulate the US economy.
Great timing? Why? Cause he was asked to.

TO All;
Slow here. Who won the fight last night? Serious. I dont know.

November 9, 1997
Clinton in uphill battle for votes on fast track

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton was fighting an uphill battle Sunday to win the votes needed to pass fast track trade authority as the hour for the tally in the House approached.

The House was scheduled to vote Sunday night on the legislation that would give him authority to negotiate trade agreements that could not be altered by Congress. Just hours before lawmakers were to cast their ballots, Congressional leaders said thepresident had more work to do to win votes.

"It is frankly in the next few hours an uphill fight. I think we can get there," Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich told reporters following a meeting with his majority Republicans. "I think it is very difficult. I am not promising that we will have the votes."

Lawmakers said the vote would go forward Sunday unless Clinton asks that it be delayed again.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TRADE-USA.html

Someone's buying SPOOs on Globex. Went from -2.3 to +5.7. As a result Nikkei and All Ords went from -1% and -.5% to plus columns. NZ still down heavy. All eyes now on Hong Kong.

I am still trying to figure out how the dollar can remain King and the United States can export all sorts of goods to the rest of the world's devaluating currency destroyed markets. Which as I understand it are all in a race to see who can go the lowest, for the longest duration to win out in trade agreements.

Clinton continues to babble about the environment, yet China is about to dam one of the natural wonders of the world and displace 1million people in the process.

The dam, according to the murdering weasel who rang the NYSE bell attributes the dam, it's completion and such on the Socialistic model that China provides to the world.

Meanwhile back at murder central, the weasel has a 120million standing army. Why? To sweep up the bones and ashes of students that want the ability to speak openly, and create a China the people actually have some input in.

Holyfield in 8.

Anyone who is interested in Saudi Arabia and who listens to Jimmy Rogers, here is his take from a couple of years ago.... http://www.worth.com/articles/Z9511E01.html

TO tolerant1 ( @Tequilaville ) ;
Thanks. Do you see Klinton on Meet the Press today?

November 9, 1997
House divided over fast-track trade vote
WASHINGTON ( AP ) - President Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich worked in tandem late Sunday in an uncertain effort to muscle trade legislation
through the House. The chief executive assured Democrats he wouldn't
"trade a matter of principle" as he bargained for Republican votes.

With Clinton able to gain only scant backing among politicians in his own
party, Gingrich and other Republican leaders made a last-minute bid to
swell their support behind the fast-track measure.

The Clinton administration was trying to appease wheat state politicians by offering to try and get Canada to disclose how it prices its wheat.

Canadian wheat and beef producers could be dragged into the whirlwind
of deal-making but it still wasn't clear how the votes were going.

Rick Hill, a Montana Republican, was pushing last week for support for
protection against imported wheat and beef.

In his public comments, Gingrich jabbed repeatedly at the unions that tried unsuccessfully to topple him and the Republicans from power in elections a year ago.

The result, they claim, would be downward pressure on wages in this
country, as companies relocate factories abroad. Passage of the fast-track legislation is regarded as likely in the Senate.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Trade-Battle.html

Survey results of my auto trip to a professional conference: Had to drive across four states including the southern blue ridge mountain retirement areas. Vast tracts of incredibly overpriced land, huge homes and hundreds of thousands of people living off retirement funds and vast numbers working solely in recreation or worse yet, just living on the dole. No heavy industry visible except for a scattering of power plants. Extractive industry is booming as the forests are converted to wood chips and the land sold for housing on 30 year mortgage plans. All the people doing productive work spoke Spanish. Couldn't get a big city paper: no mention of gold prices in any of the midsized city papers. Tried the tabloid "USA Today". No mention of gold, but found out that Mr. Klinton has saved us all from a life of illiteracy. Most phone directory yellow pages had more pages of attorneys than of food and dry goods stores; most stores of that type were megastores. Conclusion: Economy of the Blue Ridge and Piedmont areas of VA, WV, NC, SC is supported by unstable means. My sources tell me that by areas further north are much worse. When ( not if ) this collapses there are going to be vast opportunities to turn liquid wealth into real estate and housing resources. I'd thought that this would occur when the cyclic market turned on or around 2 1/2 years from now, but it looks like Klinton and friends may get approval of their greenhouse gases treaty. If so, the transportation strikes will close down the entire region and retirees will leave like rats from a sinking ship.

Thank God for the progressive Liberal Democrats fighting big biz and their Lap Dogs Clinton/Gingrich/Lott to fight for American financial independence and to defeat the Big Corporate Bosses greedy for profit no matter the cost to the democracy they so obviously hate. When the Econ downturn takes hold they will reap the harvest that they as evil people so richly deserve.

Mikey: No, I didn't. I figured it didn't matter. I would just watch the mini-series when it comes out. Fast Track Held Hostage - Day 153, The Turning Point.

November 9, 1997
Nike audit found unsafe conditions in Vietnam plant

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - An audit of a Vietnamese factory producing 400,000 shoes a month for Nike Inc. indicates that many unsafe conditions existed when the audit was conducted a year ago.

The report by auditors Ernst & Young found that the largely female workforce at the Korean-owned Tae Kwang Vina Industrial Ltd. Co. factory, in the Bien Hoa Industrial Zone, was exposured to carcinogens, forced to work up to 65 hours a week and earned only slightly more than $10 a week.

The factory employs about 10,000 with the average ranging from 18 to 24 years. It was built in 1995. Recommendations from the November 1996 inspection were submitted to Nike in January 1997.

Ernst & Young's report was slated for internal use only. However, a workers' rights group, the San Francisco-based Transnational Resource and Action Center, was given a copy of the audit which it made available to Reuters in New York.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/NIKE.html

Some reply:

Date: Sat Nov 08 1997 17:14
jfklajf ( fjka;j ) ID#251213:
We are at a loss, however, to understand the
relative tightness of supply. Whatever may be the explanation, the market
may be heavily oversold at these levels. If this technical condition persists,
we can envision a substantial rally triggered perhaps by further stock market
declines.
STRATEGY: Stand aside"
ANOTHER I guess you have an "explanation?" Hmmmm?

JFKLAJF,
If the BIS group has decided to back away from supporting London
then  the relative tightness of supply will be the least of the problems!
I repost your other note as part of answer.

Date: Sat Nov 08 1997 17:20
jfkdasljf ( jfkla;j ) ID#251213:
How can things get worse for a large bank in a deflation?
Ans. Have an inflation hedge, gold, go up. The banks are the ones who
have been shorting gold, if they have to liquidate positions to raise cash; uh
oh.

Date: Sat Nov 08 1997 18:24
A.Goose ( @pondCentral ) ID#20135:
I have often wondered, over the past 4 years, why people or institutions
would buy yet to be mined gold at such heavy premiums over spot prices. It
always seemed that it would be more logical, and better business to boot,
to buy at spot. Well, with John K.'s and ANOTHER's posts, it makes sense.
If you want to take over MAJOR positions in bullion without spooking the
market and driving prices up, creating the business of forward sales would
certainly do the trick. You get the bonus of not only harvesting bullion in the
present at firesale prices, but also you lock in future "fire sale" prices. This
mechanism also avoids upsetting countries, populations and most of all
A.G.
I have to say that I am definitely buying into the program. Gold can rally to
new highs with no "official" sales because pricing can initially be evolved
from the forward sales contracts.
I do believe however that not all gold stocks will suffer. I believe that
companies that have no or little forward hedges will soar as well as those
that have new discoveries. Holding bullion will be very positive.

Mr. A. Goose,
You think well, sir! But also, gold stocks would do well if the world
would stay the same. It will not! Question, How can you dig for gold
if no official exchange will quote you a price? What is in the ground
may need to rest a while.

Date: Sat Nov 08 1997 18:24
Cmax ( @ANOTHER ) ID#339320:
This seems to be a very Saudi point of view.....which brings to mind an
image of a housepet that feels that HE is the owner of the house, and the
lowly HUMANS exist only to clean, house and feed the pet.

If their is something Im still missing on this gold/oil scenario, please correct
me.

Cmax,
A good view from you, sir! A fine Arabian horse is much the same.

The battle is not over the supply of oil, the commodity but the value of oil
in what terms. Oil will flow, but on what terms? I ask you, what currency
will be allowed to keep this fine pet?


Date: Sat Nov 08 1997 19:47
MoreGold ( @ANOTHER 16:27 ) ID#348286:
How the hell will the shorts deliver the Gold if their
game is finally called ??
One question, if as you contend, oil will be driven up to support the
non US currencies, is it a good time to go long on ( paper ) oil?

MoreGold,
They cannot. Paper oil? No other asset ever to exist will match the
coming increase in the value of gold bullion, none.


Date: Sun Nov 09 1997 19:22
JTF ( @Home ) ID#57232:
: If gold bullion liquidity were,
say, vanish tomorrow, and there was a run on gold, how high would it go up
before non-central bank sources opened up? I can't imagine it will go up
without limit, and gold will cease to trade. Unless there is a
financial/derivatives crisis at the same time. Thanks in advance.

Mr. JTF,
You have answered your question. I add this picture:

If a bank that uses Yen has lost 90% of its loans and holds gold and bullion has
risen 500% in yen in a week, to use a western way  would it cut its
winners and let the losers run?

Roar: You omitted Democrat supporters Al Gore and Jay Rockefeller, are they liberal or conservative?

Do not be fooled by whether it is Democrat or Republican, what ever it takes to get their job done. Not a conspiracy just business as usual.
Who cares which team wins as long as the gate is good.

TO 6pak;
I'd be more interested what U THINK the market ( or gold )
will do 2morrow. Not shoes. Gold/Oil/Saddam.

Roar r.e. Liberal Democrats: They don't produce. They consume ( except for the ones who own big overseas factories of course ) !

Hong Kong Markets open down almost 2%. Here we go!

HK unimpressed by SPOOs action on Globex, down 197 at open.

TO Gusto Oro;
Yes.Clearly anti-American.The delicate balance of oil will
change.Higher prices.Gold will piggyback.

TO Walt;
Gold should be rallying ( Hong Kong -2% ) .
Its not. MAJOR market correction in US 2morrow.

Assuming under current market conditions that a lot of small mining
companies will go out of business, including possibly some large ones,
one might think it prudent to utilize a mining stock mutual fund like
Midas, USA Gold, Rydex Precious Metals, etc: ?
Does anyone have a suggestion as to which gold funds would be the safest
to use considering the present risk factor ?

Mikey, I truly am sorry, you feel the way you do. Give a vet a hug. You need it more, then they do. Gold, is anyone's guess, I have always stated it is on it's way up. Gold is the international measurement of value.

Hope that helps you become complete. You need it. Take Care. "Lest We Forget". ***Be Quiet...Consume...and Die*** eh!

The currency change in Europe could cost U.S. firms billions
No later than Dec. 31, 1998, people doing business in Europe will have to rewrite their computer software to handle three different base currencies at once. The value of the euro will have to be determined on a daily basis by its relationship to both the dollar and other European currencies. In other words, every bill, every financial statement, and every stock price in the nine countries set to join what is known as the European Monetary Union will have to be "triangulated." So far, says Sarwar Kashmeri, a corporate consultant specializing in the issue, no commercial software exists to make that calculation. "We have been focusing very hard on the year-2000 problem, but we've been missing the euro," says Gary Johnson, an American attorney specializing in European securities markets.
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/971117/17euro.htm

TO 6pak;
Good. Now, what about oil?

AMSTERDAM, Nov 7 ( Reuters ) - Dutch airline KLM ( KLM.AS ) said on Friday it may ground some of its aircraft on January 1, 2000 if certain routes turn out to be unsafe due to millennium bugs. KLM also said it would host a conference next year as part of a campaign to share information with
competitors and inform the public.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/07/y0002_z00_1.html

Another or anyone, Would you please tell me why it would be advantageous to hold gold in a safe over gold in the ground if there were no market for gold?

Kitco on TechWeb?
Year 2000 Quirks Will Hit Us Slowly
By Wayne Rash
I don't know about you," my friend said, laughing nervously, "but I'm putting everything into gold." My friend, a senior executive for one of the world's largest software companies, wasn't worried about the recent stock market crash and rebound cycle. To him, that was small potatoes.

http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?INW19971110S0097

Banks Bracing For Year 2000
By Bruce Caldwell

How serious is the problem for the banking industry?...That has plenty of people worried. Out of 1,100 IT professionals worldwide, 38% said they may withdraw personal assets from banks and investment companies before the year 2000.

http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?IWK19971110S0031

http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/97/11/10/timfgnmid03006.html?1124027

Currency Crisis Leads to 20pc Decline in Gold Purchases

KUALA LUMPUR: Gold purchases in Southeast Asia have dropped more than 20 per cent in some countries due to the currency crisis afflicting the region, reports say.

Gold appears more expensive because local currencies have depreciated against the US dollar, the Business Times newspaper quoted Kitaru Inagaki, area manager of the World Gold Council, as saying.

He said Malaysia had already seen a 20 per cent drop in gold sales in the July to September period.

Mr Inagaki said that since the Malaysian ringgit had depreciated by almost 30 per cent, gold prices appeared to have increased by 22 per cent.

"Psychologically, consumers will find it more expensive to purchase gold and thus will wait until the ringgit stabilises," he said.

And since gold prices in the local currency are considerably higher, a lot of consumers are cashing in by selling their gold stocks, Mr Inagaki added.

"It has been the trend in the past few months."

Mr Inagaki said Indonesia and Thailand also faced a similar situation, adding that gold prices in Jakarta and Bangkok had risen by 33 per cent and 28 per cent respectively since July.

"Since the baht has devalued by almost 50 per cent, gold sales were negative as the majority of customers sold gold rather than bought it," he said.

"People sold more than they bought . . . resales amounted to 30 tonnes in the third quarter," Mr Inagaki said.

Mr Inagaki said the price of gold had been slowly dropping although it recently stabilised at US$310 ( HK$2,400 ) per ounce.

"This will be good for countries with a huge consumption like China, Taiwan and Hong Kong," he said.

The paper said gold consumption in Indonesia amounted to 130 tonnes a year, while Malaysia consumed 100 tonnes and Thailand, 136 tonnes.

Called my Rep in Washington and Clinton and Ginger are goin all night on this one as they said the vote should be in ten hours. It will probably pass with this effort as apparently a defeat or pulling the legislation isnt acceptable to the Corporate FAT CATS who need cheap labor AND quick profits to maintain stock prices growing for their stock option packages. The financial collapse will be ooo soo shveet and ever so richly deserved.

Thanks for the reply. Due do the new "sectioning" of time intervals on Kitco, I think most people missed it.

What do you think is a tentative timeframe for serious upward movement in gold ( above 450 ) . As there are so many variables, and as you say, there is no limit to the amount of gold paper that can be printed ( not to mention the all out desperation of the CB's ) this date would be a totally hypothetical and non-comittal estimation based on conditions AT THIS MOMENT, ( which will change tomorrow ) .

Per recognized international oil expert, rapidly rising capacity utilization will reach critical levels next year - forcing crude oil prices upwards. Further price impetus will be generated by increasing political and civil strife in Saudi Arabia, consequently putting in jeopardy the world's largest supplier of Black Gold. Needless to say gold will rise in concert:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/crude_oil/rising_oil.html

Just come off bourse and the bidding for NDY & LHG very strong.
Some people just want to buy a bucket-load of these producers.

Clinton repeats threat of military action against Iraq
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/top/110997/topstory_2022.html

Kurd militias battle in Iraq
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/110997/world1_22364.html

Japanese Stocks Fall, Led by Banks, on Financial System Woes
http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/topten.html

Another,
6-7 months ago, a poster ( BigTrader ) made similar predictions to yours. He even gave timframes. His final and boldest prediction coincided with a big drop in gold prices. BigTrader vanished from this site.

GOOD. No Comment

When this ones over Wall St leaders will be the subject of a financial Nuremburg Trials for their wanton slaughter of millions of innocent investors. Without respect to their being men, women or even innocent children. Let the TRIALS begin.

Just got home---missed the game----who won? Sounds like Montreal??

Steve: The best of luck to you too!!

Carl :
ANOTHER has stated that gold will not be quoted offically, but that a black/gray market will be where it will be exchanged. ( paraphasing )

My assumptions:
So, as with many other items, if you hold a commodity ( gold ) you will be able to use it in dealings with others. This trading goes on today in many countries including our own, where various items are exchanged often without the knowledge of anyone but the participates. The individuals would set the prices for gold, just as they do today on various items that are not sanctioned.

In Vietnam there was no offical quoting for the exchange of Military currency for the Vietnam currency. It was illegal to make this exchange. The black market evloved to set the rates and it did just fine, thankyou and business went on quite briskly. I assume something along the same lines would occur with gold if it was no longer offically quoted. Hope this helps.

Shek :
We were posting a while back the possibility that MSFT, Gates and the Techies were investing in Gold as a hedge against their software business. Could this article be referring to this Large Software Co?
I don't know about you," my friend said, laughing nervously, "but I'm putting
everything into gold." My friend, a senior executive for one of the world's largest software companies,
I have also noticed that RYO on a couple of down days for the Gold Index held even when others were dropping - just an observation. By the way RYO is located in Kirkland, WA. a very nice area. Guess who the neighbors are?
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ryo.html

Its not demand that will increase gold.Oil Will.We've
all been looking in the wrong places.

D.A.
http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Washington/Misc/gaossa9744.htm

WW: Don't ya just love 'Newt'.....

Saudi's Gold and Oil. Whatta combination. I do not see how until there is a unified european currency that the saudi's and the other oil producing countries can price their commodity in anything other than dollars. For oil to become valuable it must be consumed. That means getting it from the well head to the refinery to the consumer. Today oil is traded as a comodity in new york with delivery to Cushing OK for WTI or Midland TX for Sour. You can have oil anywhere in the world and trade from these markets. And settlement on these contracts is in dollars. The same for Brent and Saudi Heavy and Light. Reguardless of the instability in the mid-east and their hatred of the United States, they are commited to playing our game with our chits. And there is no way gold will take the place of a currency in this market. Remember convertability, portability and security? If you are buying one thousand contracts to take delivery of oil you are talking about a LARGE hunka gold!

THANKS BRO!

HighRise,
It's possible. I have heard on one of the tech chats that a group of techies from one company were pooling their investment money to buy gold. I dont know whether paper or physical. Hedgeing their bets.

ANOTHER: You have been busy! Now we are getting somewhere. Why don't we separate the problem into its parts, namely the following:
1 ) An eventual liquidity shortage of gold bullion -
Gold bullion price soars -- just like what happens with any commodity when the "limitless" source suddenly runs dry. Questions - When, and how high will gold price go before non Central Bank sources are available?
There will always be a market for gold -- even if it is not with paper transactions.

2 ) A rise in oil prices - Questions - When, and due to a Middle East crisis, a failure of the dollar, etc? How much oil from other parts of the world? How much from Middle East - 25%? Problems in SE Asia might reduce world wide demand for oil given deflationary process there.
And if oil prices go up -- deflation for everyone -- everyone loses?

3 ) A world currency crisis/derivative crisis? Question - when? The ECU/EMU is looking less and less attractive. What will be left in the near future except the dollar? One cannot expect the world to go off the "dollar standard" until there is a viable substitute. Do you know anything about another ( secret ) world currency in the works, based on gold? There was a 1990 economic study focused on secretly going back to the gold standard, with a modern elctronic twist to the old system. Allen Greenspan has publicly expressed an interest in returning to the gold standard.
Please see Ref: University of Warwick Symposium 1990, sponsored by NBER and CEPR. Book summary titled "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands", Eds Paul Krugman and Marcus Miller,Cambridge Univ Press 1992.
Clearly here everyone loses ( in my opinion ) except the ones with the gold, because the LBMA trading is the hidden use of gold as a currency already -- has been for hundreds of years.

4 ) A market crisis - we are having one now - and it will probably continue for 6 months to a year -- before it fades ( and ElNino fades ) -- with or without all nations being caught up in the turmoil. Eventually all nations will be forced to consider using "hard" assets rather than "paper" assets, but maybe not yet.

These are four main topics we need to discuss. The four crises may occur together, or separately. My impression is that the powers that be will consider protecting the worlds currencies the most overrriding priority, because, in their mind a failure of the worlds currencies would cause a world market collapse anyway. Using this scenario, the worlds "Western" central banks might consider selling more gold, and let the world markets fall.

If we analyze everything at once, understanding of the process will be extremely difficult.

I just saw a preview for the mews at 11. One of the stories is.... Is prozac safe for you cat or dog? Mews at 11! I'm serious, they're really giving this stuff to pets! :- ) ) What a world! Even the emotions of dogs and cats need to be controlled. What next? Controlling the emotions of Bulls and Bears? :- ) )

KahunnaGrande,
I lived in Midland from 80 to 86. That place was mad house for the first couple of years. Then, everything went away as fast as it started. Tell me, are things picking up there again or is it still quiet. I'm not doing anything related to oil anymore. However, when the business is good, there's no other place I'd rather be.

ROAR 21:49 : You are 100% right on. This is the biggest news story of the moment. Why has the voting been postponned for over 3 days now?
Why is Clitton and Gingrich sleeping in the same bed?
Why are they pushing so hard?
Why hasn't the vote taken place in an orderly democtratic fashion?
BIG ANERICAN BUSINESS ABSOLUTELY NEEDS DIRT CHEAP LABOR ( READ: EXPORTING JOBS TO LATIN AMERICA ) TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT PROFIT LEVELS AND HENCE THEIR SHARE PRICES AND FAT STOCK OPTION PAYOUTS TO THE TO EXECUTIVES!
These fat pigs are selling out their own Brothers and Sisters, because they know there is no other honest way to make themselves wealthy.
If this does pass I beleive that those reps who voted for it will pay a heavy price.

Ted Dont ya just luv Bonior Gephardt and Kennedys!

It's a wacky world ain't it.....

Ted -- It sure is! My question is, how do you know if your cat or dog needs this stuff?? Inquiring minds what to know! :- ) )

MoreGold and Roar: Clinton manipulated the DNC into giving him most of the funds raised for the last election. Clinton won, but the dems failed to retake the House and lost ground in the Senate. Now the DNC is anywhere from 11 to 15 million in debt, depending on your source. A big fundraiser held recently was supposed to generate 6 million and only netted 2 million. Big contributors are scared away by the increasing scandals and possibility of being connected to them. The only place left for democratic congressmen to get lotsa cash is from labor unions and that cash comes with a price... don't vote for fast track. Republicans have given Clinton Nafta, and Gatt and now they are taking BC to the cleaners for support on this bill. If fast track passes, then look for reversals in white house positions on many things. The votes aren't there yet and that means Clinton hasn't been rolled enough yet. He'll be up all night or until Newt fills his shopping list. Ain't politics great?

WW: As YOU well know,I despise both of them and put them in the same catagory as Al Sharpton,Bernie Sanders and ect ect ect....My motto is the less ( that's smaller ) gov'ment----the fukin better!!! ---views not of 'Teddy' and Gepfart....Neither one of them would have the business expertise to run a corner store let alone make a correct political decision....

Is Bill trying to get a divorce modern style? News flash across the screen " palce carrying Hillary had to dump fuel and turn back from an asian trip..." ???

Clinton needs to up the repair budget for Air Force 1. Those breakdowns can be a real pain in the ...

Damn,I don't know either----I'll ask Willy when he snaps out of his coma.

not palce I mean PLANE carrying Hillary ... Sso SORRY.

Ted,
Right on!

Perhaps the delay in the Fast Track vote is to make it dramatic when it passes as a panacea for the comical "America will lead on trade" stuff and all the financial problems in the propped up Asia and Latin America are no problem as we ( the "free traders" ( riders ) fought a tough battle and won ) .
They have pulled rabbits out of the hat for good effect before and it will happen this AM apparently. Why else would gold be down and S&P up if the fix werent in. Hope I am wrong and the people prevail and Fast Track goes down but I have become cynical even at my young age of 32.

A.Goose -- The enviroment! Oh no! Jet fuel loosed on those poor plants and tres and things..... AlGores gonna be mad! :- ) )

Panda, I am positive my dog could use some. He is either running around like crazy or just laying around like he is dead. I would say a typical maniac depression syndromes. However, he's not getting any - I need it all to help me deal with craziness of this market ;- )

London doesnt seem quite as optimistic as New York ( having to do, no doubt, with the difference in our legal systems! )

FT, Monday 11/10/97

Its clear things are very fragile, said Giles Keating, London based chief economist at Credit Suisse First Boston.

In UK analysts yesterday anticipated more of the volatility seen over the past two weeks though with a downward tendency.

There is a lot of downside still to come, said Richard Jeffrey, group chief economist at Charterhouse. Another 10% can easily come off equities in the UK this week.

And in the futures pit...
FT 11/10/97
CBOT set for a clash with its regulators after being told its trader monitoring systems were deficient.

Pat Arbor, CBOT chairman, lashed out saying We are operating a business not a public utility. He warned that any clamp down on trading activities could adversely impact the efficiency and liquidity of the worlds most active futures market.

yes,u are right!
buzinessssss seem slower and slower....more inter-link goldshops will "CLOSing DOWN"!The markets trust to be nearly "DEAD WATER"!!!From the restaurents/tourists/retails/car dealers/consumer/manufacture/............except...OIL!!If the conflict broke out between the giants,...this liquid soured liked roket.
HAPPY......

Miro -- I figure I'll cover all of the bases. Buy DJX calls, XAU calls, and XAU puts, and then take some prozac intended for my pet. :- ) )

NJ ( @Iraq ) : Looks like you found the critical post of the weekend. Saddam says in your post that the Iraqis "have either to sacrifice or become slaves". The tanks are placed in civilian areas, not because Saddam is afraid of being overthrown, but because he wants the civilian shield. Just as in North Korea now ( and virtually everywhere else it seems in the past ) , it will be the innocent that will suffer the most during strife.
This may be the trigger for the markets, but only if Saddam can figure out how to bring others into the self-immolation he seems to want. Perhaps he is trying to martyr himself so that he will go down in history as a hero to the "cause"- at the expense of the Iraqi people. I find it hard to believe that the history books will be written the way he may want them written.
I think the best response by the world powers will be to do nothing. Saddam can't have a war in Iraq if noone comes to fight. But -- others may jump at the opportunity to enhance their public opinion ratings. I guess I am getting more and more suspicious of the true motives of others as I get older.

If you run the numbers I think it costs more to try and fix this world market, than it would to let it go poof. At a certain point even the printing press owners will figure that out.

Think about it, even if 1oz of gold were worth $10,000oz the world would still be broke. If gold were $100,000oz it still would not clean up the mess.

They have no choice but to flub the system, clear the books and start over. Eventually that will become clear to everyone on the planet and poof.

JFT: On your item
3 ) A world currency crisis/derivative crisis?
I would like to add the possibility of the use of the SDR as the new "savior" currency. It is listed as an exchange currency and as it were belongs to "NO COUNTRY". SDRer knows alot about it than I do.

We agree/ the Less govt helps business THE BETTER. Cut the Corporate Welfare mothers off now and LIBERALISE the Bankruptcy Laws so the Banks get their just dessert. I hate govt interference in the bankruptcy process and their regulations limiting the ability of laid off or fired employees from receiving unemployment benefits. I'll Repeat GET GOVT REGULATIONS OFF THE BACKS OF THE PEOPLE. Ted WE finally agree There is TOO MUCH GOVT regulation!!!

Panda: Another reason for Prozac -- what if the derivatives market locks up?

Kauuna Grande: Yo comment "If you are buying one thousand contracts to take delivery of oil you are talking about a LARGE hunka gold!" 1,000 crude contracts is 1,000,000 barrels. At approximately $21/BBL that's about $21 million. With Gold at about $315/oz, we are talking 3.8 cubic feet of gold. Tain't much volume Pard, but the weight 'ill giveya a hernia, comin' in pertneer 4,600 pounds. Schucks Pard, hear-tell that new-fangled e-gold can solve that problem -- or git 10 roughnecks from neighborin oil-patch to tote it off in wheeel-barrels.

Folks, I think that the fast track shoots on keeping the paper market going. Bill C. and his group needs something to slow down a market decline to prevent the uproar of baby boomers and retirees who would loose a big chunk of their retirement funds. He, who dreams about a place in the history as "great president" can't have that! If he can delay it by a few years, and you know that markets act on promises, he would not care less what happens after he is out. However, I don't think that he can prevent that from happening - Fast track or not!!!

My last post about Saddam may have been misleading. I will not feel peaceful if he starts launching rockets filled with VX nerve gas or other poisons that will kill other innocents. Then I, and I hope everyone else will be unanimous about what needs to be done -- but let him show his true colors first so that all will know and respond accordingly.

JTF -- The derivative market won't lock up, it'll go... POOF! Options and futures are zero sum games. If you win, someone else MUST lose. Oh, and, commissions are always paid!

A.Goose: That is a possible substitute currency. My problem is that was the original intention for the unveiling of the SDR years ago. It failed to catch on, and appears not to be a stable currency. The SDR would need major rehabilitation. My guess is that the "powers that be" would choose another name for their dark horse if there is one.

There you go, the plane Hillary was flying in was used during the Nixon administration. Ironies, they do seem to abound with this crowd. Wasn't Hillary at the watergate hearings?

For those of you that have pets do what I do. Soak band aids in Tequila and then apply them to the inside of your pets ears. Works great, just like the patch for smoking.

Panda: I'm sure you know more about derivatives than I do. I was really not referring to an irreparable failure of the derivatives market where records were lost, or where certain parties failed to pay up -- didn't Victor Neiderhoffer have that problem -- or was it just a problem for his sponsors?
What I was referring to was that you might not be able to get the price you wanted when you wanted it.

LGB - Don't let the door hit your butt...


Gold down 70...where from here?

away...to Sunday night slobbin' on the couch and the x-files

hi Ted

It's those vets that are pushing drugs on to your pets! I demand action from congress!

A man with emphysema blows up his own house as he tries to light up a smoke....


Now I know why I don't watch the news..............

Chicken!!! You left before the other shoe fell ( ;^ ) ) ) . West County Road in Odessa is full now and they are putting new buildings up. New construction in Midland is unbelievable. It isn't what you see in Las Vegas or Pheonix but if you remember Midland in 75-77? Read Clayton Williams comments in the oil section of the Odessa American www.oaoa.com. I have been working all over the basin the last six months. Locations are completed and waiting foe rigs. The problem is both rig availibility and crews. Remember when you had to know somthing to get a job in the oil field. Now all you need is clean pee. I have a brother in law that is a rig welder. He has offers for three jobs. Wage range 28 to 35.00 Last year if you could find one pay was 22 to 25. Things are shaping up for another boom.

JTF -- I always seem to have that problem, not getting the price that I want. I get 'shaved' more often than i care to admitt.

One thing about the whole range of conversation concerning the world markets, Africa seldom if ever comes up in conversation with the exception of SA for the gold and platinum.

I mean, you never hear the politicians talk about the African economy, where it will be in ten years. Heck, we never talk about all the folks living there.

I mean it still exists right. There's lots of great people there, great culture.
These folks belong in the party as it were.

Just a thought.

Dog got a problem with thunderstorms? You got it, prozac! Cat a complete mental case? Ditto...

Panda: I appreciate your dry humor tonight -- I'm getting too serious. As I recall, Hillary was somebody's legal assistant of somekind during the Watergate investigations. For someone who is obviously very smart, she sure didn't learn anything. Or... for that matter, maybe she did ... maybe she realized that Nixon's downfall was the he was too honest.
On the other hand .... she should have known that those Whitehouse video tapes and notes ( for posterity ) would be trouble! Also those 10 year old records found in someone's discarded auto in Arkansas -- no matter how smart you are, and how hard you cover your tracks, if the trail is wide enough, someone will pick up the tracks. Guess that mysterious single room fire in that virtually fireproof Worthen Bank building in Arkansas wasn't big enough, was it?

Paying 14 an hour. Plus all you can steal. Just pass the pee test!!! Hell they are adveertising in the classifieds for hands. Man cant even get a decent job at a bar or the ice house any more.

First, in this information age, someone somewhere will list an exchange value for gold. It is not important that the number be right, just consistent. Gold will trade at a premium or discount to this number. Different percentages will be hammered out between buyer and seller depending on their needs.

Second, barring the above statement, the exchange value will be determined by the gold holders cost to replace and the sellers need for more gold. Barter is not as clean as representative currency so there will not be a one price system like current retail. Negotiation skills and differential bargaining positions will be more important.

Steve
http://www.familyjeweler.com

For what it is worth, check out a company called Environmental Remediation Holding Company - ERHC - oil, gas, recycling, a little known stock I read about from Jay Taylor's newsletter.

Peace to all

A shot of tequila and I am toast.

Out WITH THE IMPERIAL CONGRESS IN 98,

ww, roar, et.al,:The so-called leaders of American labor will not punish the Slick One for spending Sunday nite huddling with Neutered Gingrich in an effort to keep wages down here, because he spent Saturday nite with the queers. The "Labor Leaders", like the rest of your "progressive" big wigs, are much more interested in things like gay rights, affirmative action, and open borders than they are in the paychecks of the "boobery."

Thanks for the tip. I have been seeing their pickups the last few months. There is two lifetime's of work for them out here.

It seems to me that there will be no 'crashes', tomorrow anyhow. Why? Simple. The U.S. is viewed as having a stable market and government. When foreign markets in less developed countries become unstable, capital flight developes and it ( capital ) heads to the U.S. shores. Hence, the old axiom, the foreigners are the last ones to buy our markets at the top. It's just a thought.

As far as the economy goes, the Christmas shoppers are out NOW! The stores are very busy on the weekends. Of course we've had three, or is it four, weekends in a a row where it has rained here.

Sadly, it appears that there is little interest in gold. If you want to be in gold stocks or leveraged instruments in the metals, don't use margin for stocks and use stops for options and futures. Perhaps sad'n insane will do something unexpected ( I doubt it ) , and oil will move up. That would get the inflation worries going...

Goodluck everyone tomorrow! May the markets -- at least -- whatever happens -- stay open! And more importantly, we need to pray that Saddam Hussein does not cause the deaths of any more innocents.

HK down -141
Japan down -247
Spoos coming off a bit
Afternoon sell-off coming???

Ted: Toronto won. Last minute heroics by Pinball Clemons and Doug Flutie.
Regina beat Edmonton also last minute heroics. Most entertaining football game of the year between the winners next Sunday. Too bad so many won't be able to see it. Somebody beat LBG. Don't know who.

All Good evening
Ted low flying loonie heading your way
Nick@Aussie I'd be honoured to join your Pa in a cup of cha, I suspect that he and my 83 yr old step-father could shoot the breeze for hours and hours. Always grateful for your analysis.
Mike Sheller, ROTFL Eat me.

Well, I gues they just won't learn.


Sunday November 9, 10:49 pm Eastern Time

HK exchange says 24 companies buy back shares

HONG KONG, Nov 10 ( Reuters ) - The Hong Kong stock exchange said 24 companies bought back shares on Friday, including five blue chip companies.

Amoy Properties Ltd ( 0101.HK ) bought back 2.65 million shares at HK$6.25 to HK$6.30 per share, Hang Lung Development Co Ltd ( HANLY - news;
0010.HK ) repurchased 789,000 shares at between HK$9.75 and HK$10.20, the exchange said.

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd ( CPCAY - news; 0293.HK ) bought back 2.0 million shares at HK$7.20 to HK$7.60, The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels
Ltd ( 0045.HK ) repurchased 430,000 shares at a price ranging from HK$6.10 to HK$6.25, it said.

Television Broadcasts Ltd ( 0511.HK ) bought back 54,000 shares at between HK$20.20 and HK$20.50 per share.

Yeah, I looked up the box scores of the two games and they both went down to the wire---sorry I missed em!---Am NOT for Toronto in Grey cup....

I don't want belabor the obvious, but... Has anyone noticed how exchanges around the world have adopted the 'trading' halts that we have in the U.S. As in the last few weeks? So why not share buy backs? Anything to keep the game going.

Good night all.......... And if anyone wants to short the indexes tomorrow, use tight stops, it's no fun working to pay your broker...

Ted: Spoken like a true Maritimer or someone from any other place in Canada except Toronto. Maybe you're beginning to fit in : )

G'day mate....my e-mail server is bein a bit slow----might not get it for a few days ( grin thing ) .....Heavy fog+ drizzle with the distant sound of the fog horn in the distance----very relaxing....

Aurator
Good to see you back and the nemesis gone.

OZ SPI turned late afternoon following Asia.
Turned at a critical resistance point. T/A lives.

Aurator, Nick ( @Aussie ) : Always enjoy both of your posts -- I'm getting too serious tonight, and it has nothing to do with the markets at all.
Just that crazy person over in Iraq! I wish also that this part of the world was as peaceful as it always is when "down under" picks up the Kitco flag about this time ( bedtime for me ) . How about some words from the word master of Kitco, and posts ( or poetry ) about the markets from the wizard of technical analysis! Nick -- I think you can write poetry too -- because you have posted stuff I don't think your dad wrote!
Good night all! Maybe our words and thoughts can help keep the world together. Lets hope that if Saddam has nothing to shoot at he won't!

Another:

It is Oil and any other natural resource that people / governments need that control the price of Gold. Oils availability and demand determines its real price. From earlier posts, it has become clear that the price of these commodities is not as simplistic as we like to make it. I think you for example, have been trying to tell us that there are several ingredients involved in establishing the price of Oil and Gold. In your recent post, you are trying to tell us that currencies also set the price of Oil and therefore the price of Gold. It now takes more Yen to buy Oil. Oil is a resource that Japan does not have. And, if I understand your earlier post correctly: The price of Oil will be held at a constant price if the Oil producers can buy Gold at a constant price.

If one has no Gold but one has Yen, it will today take more yen to buy the same amount of Oil: therefore, for the Oil producers to buy Gold with the Yen they receive, they will be offered Gold at a cheaper price to compensate for the depreciation in the Yen. With this kind of currency drop, the price of Oil will have to rise, or the precious will have to drop. If they are going to keep the price of Oil @ $20/barrel the price of Gold has to be lower.

It would be interesting to see what happened to the price of Gold when Currencies were stable and strong. I will review charts later.

You ask: If a bank that uses Yen has lost 90% of its loans and holds gold and bullion has risen 500% in yen in a week, to use a western way  would it cut its winners and let the losers run? Isnt the quote cut your losses and let your winners run? Did you intentionally reverse the relationship? I think not,therefore the answer to your question is no.

How is the price of Oil and Gold reacting to the US $ and the US Bonds as purchasing currencies for Oil?

Please understand that i have always had a problem with inverse relationships like the price of bonds to the interest rates, so please correct my twisted thinking were ever you find it necessary to do so.

Thank You,

HighRise
GOOD LUCK ALL!

JTF

There is, I often see
Another, somewhat wiser self
Lives watchful, seemingly
At some little distance, and
Somewhat apart from me.

Observes all, and often
Speaks a word - unheard
But always understood
And that word
Ever clearly for my good.

Sometimes a warning
No! Not so!
But more often
A clear guidance
Of the way that I should go.

I trust Him
Day after day
He sees - before I do,
The better way.