Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:03 - ID#373403)
Gold not an investment of the 1990's
That Monday when the market dropped 555 points I called my refinery to purchase some AU .999 shot. They were out of gold and backlogged with orders to last a few days. Some others here on Kitco mentioned similiar experiences. This does not sound like a dead investment.

There were even comments on CNN talk to the trader type shows about adding gold to your portfolio.

When/if the crash hits or the money devaluations hit the U.S.A there will be a flight to gold.


(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:06 - ID#334321)
Just got it!!---and sent a reply! Really appreciate the info!!!! I'm fading into a coma----nite bro....

(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:14 - ID#250121)
Choice between honourable life and confrontation
JTF Thank you. I wish I did not feel the foreboding I am currently feeling about Saddam and the US. Because, although the UN appears to be leading the "Sane World"s efforts at de-clawing Saddam, I am afraid that to most of the Islamic world and similarly other worlds, the sabre-rattling and tub thumping is just another example of the evil nation, Amerika, trying to push its cancerous imperial will onto the true believers.

Better believe it, this is not just Saddam in the firing line, Oh No, Saddam has many many alies. Any move on Saddam and there will be other annoyances nipping at America's ankles. Americans so easily dismiss Arab feelings of unity and greater Islamic feeelings of Unity.

A move on Saddam would be felt also by nations in the North of Africa, in S E Asia and in central America. America, you have too many enemies to expect to stay at peace for too much longer.

Home of the brave, land of the free and armed

Buy gold.

George Cole
(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:19 - ID#42953)
at home
Gold off 2 bucks on globex and spoos way down. Looks like the WW scenario -- be short gold when a financial crisis erupts is still valid. But not much longer methinks. The day the yellow posts a strong gain when global markets are tanking will be the day the CBs finally lose control and a huge gold bull begins. Still think it's an even money bet that gold will drop under $300 before this happens though.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:28 - ID#33164)
Morning to you ALL!
Hello there!

I see so many familiar faces in a quick scroll [ for somebody's midnight!] our 7a.m...

Poetry... Yes Nick, beautiful. JTF's right...not all Dad's? I was thinking this last night.

Prozac?!- St John's Wort is said to be a better substitute. And harmless.

Looks as if it's needed with the Iraq story. Saddam will not back down, if only on principle. He marches to a different drummer.

Aurator - I have not been around for all posts- haven't seen you? All OK?

Tolerant1- It's all a bit messy here - the inefficiency & apathy i spoke of earlier [IMO], and the unawareness that the world passes on as we do things which tend to tarnish our 'image' somewhat, but feel we are viewed in the same glowing light as we were a few years ago! There's so much that's going in the right direction...and so much that's wrong. Too much to discuss, almost.

JTF- Night to you!- will read last night's posts just now. Will start on charts again today-downloaded Nick's Graphic Workshop.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:28 - ID#252166)
not much longer
George Cole - You have been saying "not much longer" for the last YEAR.

I guess sooner or later you will be right.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:30 - ID#2082)
Down $1.20

...hmmmmmmmmmmmmm watch the freefall

(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:31 - ID#373403)
Hey LGB!
If you are still lurking, loyalty to our country revisited. I have a website which details how the U.S.Army dumped their toxic waste in several ravines on the shore of Lake Michigan North of Chicago. Base closure environmental remediation laws allow the Army to be the lead agency in determining what cleanup is necessary. They polluted, they analyze, and they pay. Conflict of interest? You bet! They chose the least expensive capping option and the U.S. EPA, who is normally a pitbull with private industry, signs off on all the Army analysis about how current landfill capping technology is the best ever and will be protective of human health and the environment. Of course they said the same thing in 1982 when they put the last cap on which failed and is allowing 14,000 gallons per day of leachate to run into the lake.

The bluff erodes 3-30 inches per year and is prone to sudden movements. Federal law prohibits the siting of Mmunicipal solid waste landfills in geologically unstable areas and in regulatory floodplains. The Army argues that these laws came into effect in 1980 and the landfills were closed in 1979. Are grandfather clauses protective of human health and the environment?

They shot over 1,000,000 rounds of ammunition and artillery into the lake in the 1940's, much of it containing lead. I asked at the restoration advisory board meeting several months ago why there is no remediation studies on the lead. The U.S. EPA base closure team member answered that the artillery was on public property ( bottom of Lake Michigan ) so not subject to fort cleanup law. Forget that all of Chicago drws it's drinking water from the lake.

This is the country/government you want public displays of loyalty to? Our government is turning into something autonomous and other than We The People.


(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:35 - ID#373403)
If you are still lurking, loyalty to our country revisited. I have a website at the following address: which details how the U.S.Army dumped their toxic waste in several ravines on the shore of Lake Michigan North of Chicago. Base closure environmental remediation laws allow the Army to be the lead agency in determining what cleanup is necessary. They polluted, they analyze, and they pay. Conflict of interest? You bet! They chose the least expensive capping option and the U.S. EPA, who is normally a pitbull with private industry, signs off on all the Army analysis about how current landfill capping technology is the best ever and will be protective of human health and the environment. Of course they said the same thing in 1982 when they put the last cap on which failed and is allowing 14,000 gallons per day of leachate to run into the lake.

The bluff erodes 3-30 inches per year and is prone to sudden movements. Federal law prohibits the siting of Mmunicipal solid waste landfills in geologically unstable areas and in regulatory floodplains. The Army argues that these laws came into effect in 1980 and the landfills were closed in 1979. Are grandfather clauses protective of human health and the environment?

They shot over 1,000,000 rounds of ammunition and artillery into the lake in the 1940's, much of it containing lead. I asked at the restoration advisory board meeting several months ago why there is no remediation studies on the lead. The U.S. EPA base closure team member answered that the artillery was on public property ( bottom of Lake Michigan ) so not subject to fort cleanup law. Forget that all of Chicago drws it's drinking water from the lake.

This is the country/government you want public displays of loyalty to? Our government is turning into something autonomous and other than We The People.


(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:38 - ID#373403)
Is anybody out there?
Are there any other goldsmiths on Kitco? Please send me an e-mail at

(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:45 - ID#386276)
Colleen, JTF
I have written none of the poetry that you have read.
But I have a wise and beautiful father.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:50 - ID#257148)
Gondwanaland will rule OI
Colleen: I is fine, kind of you to ask. NZ is so far away from the rest of y'all, Our distance lends to our strength and our vulnerability. The Tyranny of distance is perhaps preferable to other tyrannies rampant in our troubled world. Wherever I look there is one constant ----in our languages it shows as the goodness of gold..

(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:53 - ID#252127)
CURRENCY TRADING, SHOULD BE ILLEGAL HE SAID. this refering to words spoken by Dr. Mahathir

Think about what he is saying, if currency trading were illegal. What else would there be in that arena? Is it yellow and shiny and called gold and will it destroy those bastards that are making the world their apple at your posterties ( your name sake's ) expense.
They call them the NWO, they are greedy and will destroy you, your family and your hopes of financial independence without a wimper. THINK ABOUT IT?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:55 - ID#348169)
It is quite obvious that LGB did not write his 17:56 between then and his 17:40.
Dave in CO - Kitco 2 - The original forum intended to discuss stocks is at the top of the page that you tune into to get this forum, it is headed "Discussion About Gold & Silver Bars, Coins,
and Stocks" click on the button and you're there! It has been particularily under utilised for months now and it is time that we all begin to use it to discuss stocks again so that this channel is left open for great discussions and reviews such as John K's 14:49 of Nov. 7th.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:58 - ID#386276)
Trading secrets of the night.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:59 - ID#32078)
Gold funds
GINSBERG... There are many gold funds to choose from, but it is not difficult to assess the risk between funds. There are several no loads which move rapidly, such as Rydex ( RYPMX ) , American Century ( BGEIX ) , US Global World Gold ( UNWPX ) , and Blanchard ( BLPMX ) . Some load funds which move are Lexington Strategic Investments ( STIVX ) and Fidelity American Gold ( FSAGX ) and Fidelity Precious Metals ( FDPMX ) . These all go up fast and down fast, but if you're sure...

Other funds move slower and can be considered less risky if you are not sure the time is right but still want to have a position.

If you are serious about gold funds, check the Eaglewing gold page at

(Mon Nov 10 1997 00:59 - ID#57232)
@Home - Nick: noticed your poem
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Should be asleep now but was reading E-mail. Each of us -- I hope - has Another to listen to, and give us direction when we need it. None of us should ever think we know everything, and why things happen the way they do. Above all else we should have faith and hope. Faith in ourselves -- that all things will somehow become clear to us. And -- hope that good will always come out of the turmoil we see around us.

Thank you.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 01:03 - ID#20135)
And now it starts aonce again:

Australia All Ordinaries ^AORD 6:23PM 2478.0 -35.4 -1.41%

New Zealand NZSE 40 ^NZ40C 6:22PM 2416.01 -69.49 -2.80%

(Mon Nov 10 1997 01:09 - ID#20135)
I would like to get other views on the U-2 Iraq situation. I believe that Saddam is making a very intelligent move. I believe that he is working the Arabic block. What he is saying to them is very reasonable and I would not be surprised that many of them may support his point of view. If I am correct we should see something from that area that will support his stance against the americans. After all he is not saying that the inspections can not occur, he just does not want the Americans to participate. It will be interesting if Suadis get involved on his behalve. Comments please.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 01:12 - ID#20135)
Strange. The "Date: Mon Nov 10 1997 01:03" post was done much earlier in the day by me and somehow just showed up again with this last post. ???

(Mon Nov 10 1997 01:17 - ID#252127)
C'max; 08:24 Nov 9: PLEASE

WHY WOULD GOLD BECOME CONTIBAND LIKE ILLEGAL DRUGS,? A globe of essentially decent people need a buffer against the currency turmoil, not of just today - but of the past - that seems to occur; Time Immemorial.
Question: Why do the CB's hold this drug ( called gold ) , even at the pressure provided by their master's who control the global media that defames it?
I am at odds to to understand why no one seems to give a damn.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 01:32 - ID#348169)
Here's a half decent one.
"Work and play are words used to describe the same thing under
differing conditions." ---Mark Twain
Ted - I know you've crashed by now, but your welcome! More to follow.
Goodnight All.
P.S - EB - Didn't like that cotton close on Friday. Looks like that upwards trending 'box' that I was speaking about was violated. Let me know your take on the situation.
And tonight, a warm adios to all, and especially to all you governmental agent provacateurs ( retired and/or active! ) :- )
Jimi H. and Jim M. still live!
Cherokee - Where are you man?
Revolution, got to revolution.
( every 20 years, according to one of the Yankee founding fathers ) .
Goodnight Dick.
And Glenn - where ever you might be.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 01:42 - ID#314249)
eternal negative light
Mooney, thats a boy,let your hair down while my anti-matter takes a
well deserved break.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 01:42 - ID#33164)
Before I go..
Such a week ahead! Hope to 'catch up'in the evenings. I shall miss Kitco!

Nick : Poetry is in all your posts..see for example your 7:18 Nov 5th-

we are indeed fortunate to have a combination of analysis & poetry! I would say this is unique?

Mooney- Hello.. Your 0:55 is a great idea, as one would like to print out the great and longer reviews on Kitco separately, and print from the Discussions only those wanted.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 01:44 - ID#20135)
On this weekend's CNBC strictly business, Griffith asked around the table: " If you had to choose between bonds and gold and you had to hold your choice for 30 years, what would you choose?" No surprise that the two economists said "BONDS". Well, Jim Rodgers said ( paraphase )

I am not much in favor of gold at this time BUT it is a no brainer, I would buy gold in a minute.

He would not hold bonds because he is extremely concerned about the U.S. dollar which he feels is at its peak. I only mention this because I assume that more and more folks will start feeling that bonds are not the only game in town. As they do pm's will get more visibility.

Getting tired, love to stay up all night again, but I think the excitement will come later in the week and I want to rest up for it.

I am starting to feel like Silas Marner, hiding my gold coins under my floor boards, worrying that some nosy neighbor will find them.

Final thought, what would you do if the computer systems went down for a week? Credit card, debit card not working. Banks can't acess accounts, schwab's, ... , not able to cut checks, grocery stores not able to verify and accept checks and/or various electronic forms of money. Gas ... I guess you get the idea. Could you make it through one week? Not me and mine. I think I will soon though ( not just gold needed but enough cash for ??? weeks I think ) . Just a thought especially as we head closer to 2000. Bye the way crashes will occur as 2000 approaches because they will trying out new "fixes" which fail because of unforseen bugs, SSSsssooooooooo a major failure could occur anytime between now and 2000. Not just exactly at jan 1 00:01 2000. ( BBML )

(Mon Nov 10 1997 01:50 - ID#314249)
@ Chief of Staff
Maybe A. Goose can fly reconnaissance tomorrow.

A.Goose report to your nearest air-base immediately
(Mon Nov 10 1997 02:16 - ID#25124)

(Mon Nov 10 1997 02:25 - ID#2082)
Save some soaking Wet Powder
GSC - When does it get old?? Same old...Same old...

gold NOW down... $1.60...and falling HARD...

I DON'T LIKE MONDAYS... wait for Monday...

Message of David
(Mon Nov 10 1997 02:35 - ID#336129)
David Blair Macrory wrote:

us t-bonds are ready to crash
and the dow/stock market - will follow
the "achillles' heel" ( for the US stock market, US dollar, & the
global economy -- as i have referred to, in many numerous, previous posts
@ ) ....continue to confirm their bullish 'birth'/break-out
patterns. You may recall: this "achilles' heel" is comprised of
rising prices/values, in these four ( 4 ) markets:
a. grains, esp. soybeans
b. energy, esp. crude-oil
c. currencies, esp. sw-franc & d-mark
d. precious metals, gold & silver

Grains & currencies have already confirmed their bullish break-out, as of
this past week's confirming action. C-Oil and the precious metals are
about to follow suit -- that is: turn up, advance, and accelerate, to
dramatically higher prices.

I have addressed these markets, and... "their inter-related
unfolding"... in several previous 'posts', articles, and e-mails. I hope
this info. is useful, and helpful to you, as you, and your sharing, have
been, for me.

Since my computer is not presently allowing me into web-sites, including, and it's discussion grp.'s 'posting-board'...I'd appreciate
it, if you'd consider being willing, to transfer/re-copy... this email to
( -as you choose to edit it ) ; and send it/post it...on - to the
discussion grp.'s 'board'. And, by all means, forward it to anyone who you believe may be interested.

Many thanks,

(Mon Nov 10 1997 03:14 - ID#386276)
The EBB tide is now coming to its end -
Better hitch up the elastic in your shorts.

Seems like someone is quite happy with Normandy,
Accumulation is taking place.
There have been some serious positions, taken up here.

The Tiger Fund has just taken up NCM's stake,
This fund is widely believed to be the major house,
Behind the coming silver squeeze.

There is a chance that a corporate play is coming to bear.
Normandy has been positioning itself with Gutnick GCM
Who has been accumulating high quality gold deposits.

Lihir and some of the other solid producers are also well sort after.

Dow/Gold ratio comparrison chart.
Showing fibo and divergences.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 03:21 - ID#386245)
If you believe in charts as both a record of the past and a predictor of future performance -- then take your money out of the bank and buy gold shares/calls/coins etc. this week. If you are afraid, because everyone, including the people on this site are so negative on gold right now--then think of it this way. The biggest profits are made when you have the nerve/guts to go against the herd. It may only be a short-term move up that is coming, but it is coming. Things go up and things go down. Right now gold is VERY down!! Gird your loins--call your broker/pm dealer--do yourself a favour. Buy when nobody wants 'em. NOW -- you've heard about warnings before!! If I'm wrong, I'll be out ( XAU below 76 ) quicker 'n your time with a two buck hooker. I won't lose a lot of money. I would not, however, have spent this much time with my two-finger typing if I didn't believe this is a reasonably good time to buy. Remember-- caveat to the emptor. Cheers from downunder.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 03:31 - ID#386276)
Just heard on our TV news:
War expected to outbreak in the next few hours.

Flux and chaos
What tangled webs we weave.

Don't use up all that sanity that resides down under,
The northern hemisphere seems sadly lacking,
I would always head home for sanctuary.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 03:46 - ID#257148)
The drums are beating loud tonite
Nick, Aye, Opportunity, Etymology: Op Portunus. the wind that blows us to a safe harbour.

trepidatious at midnight
(Mon Nov 10 1997 03:51 - ID#372238)
How about an update on the Asian markets? - anyone?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 03:55 - ID#264441)

(Mon Nov 10 1997 04:00 - ID#386245)
G'day Nick@Oz-- you're a rough jewel, mate. I can smell the barnacles from down here. Combine that with your sharp mind and your uncanny knack with computers/charts etc.-- it's a pleasure to call you a mate. I do, however, think you get overexuberant on the rapidity of the coming collapse-- but, hey, I ain't perfect neither!! Things are definitely going down. I just don't like getting caught in temporary UPS!!

Didn't sell many puts today, mate. Danged hard to sell when the market is going UP. Should have bought some more, but I'm a bit worried that the spinmeisters might just win another round. Do think gold is ready for a bounce in the next few weeks. Can't keep going down, can it??? Have you noticed how OZ$$$ gold is up on the last month. Seems the OZ$$$ goes down faster than gold.

I need some advice from someone out there. Had the offer of some mint PALLADIUM one oz coins in fancy display cases today for spot plus 10 per cent. Am very tempted. What do you Kitcoites think??

Auracious-- Don't tell me you're movin' to the big smoke?? Gonna miss the Alamo and them cow farts, mate.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 04:03 - ID#257148)
mixing my toses
Fiddlemedinkmmister;;; of mice and men..

"Can I still tend the rabbits, George."

I shall sleep deep.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 04:07 - ID#25058)

Pacific Australia ORDINARIES 3:38 am 2,521.60

8.20 0.33%

ChinaSHANGHAI COMP 3:39 am 1,185.78 -9.36 - 0.78%

Hong KongHANG SENG 3:37 am 9,992.84 -111.66 -1.11%

Indonesia JAKARTA COMP 11/07 466.12 -12.80 - 2.67%

Japan NIKKEI 225 2:47 am 15,697.20 -139.16 - 0.88%

Korea KOREA COMP INDEX 3:38 am 525.32+ 9.69 +1.88%

Malaysia KLSE COMPOSITE 3:39 am 688.72 -18.73 - 2.65%

New Zealand CAP 40 3:38 am 2,419.12 -66.38 -2.67%

Phillipines MANILA COMP 3:37 am 1,851.97 -41.64 -2.20%

Singapore STRAITS TIMES 3:38 am 1,659.84 -11.41- 0.68%

TaiwanTWN WEIGHTED 3:37 am 7,767.14 -92.95 -1.18%

Thailand BANGKOK SET3:39 am 493.03 -.01 - 0.00%

trepidatious past midnight
(Mon Nov 10 1997 04:16 - ID#372238)
@ Vancouvertime
Thanks Boertjie. I can't imagine what the Korean composite has to smile about.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 04:27 - ID#386276)
Hi there.
Always been a bit enthusiastic.

Spoos guys don't know what to do?
Up 800, down 800, up 800, in last hour, and now selling off fast.

Will they, won't they.
That is the question.

Agree with your take on my precious ( :o}}}}}}

TV news quoted, Korean won under severe attack,
With Yen to follow soon,
60% - 70% chance of Japan going into a recession,
If their Gov't doesn't get off their butts.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 04:57 - ID#386276)
Sakura Bank says hasn't received Taiyo aid request

WEEK AHEAD - Markets on tenterhooks as Fed meets

Asia fund still facing political hurdles

(Mon Nov 10 1997 05:07 - ID#432148)
AURATOR: Was surprised by your anti-us 00:14. I know you are smart enough to understand the situation in the Mid-east is spelled out in one word: OIL! Would you like Saddam and his friends setting the price?
LARRYN: Thanks for the site. My two kids will find it of great interest as they are too busy to study individual gold companies. ALL: Gold is coming back - ABN has it off .45 and silver even at the moment.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 05:20 - ID#255151)

Howdy Kitcoites--Ed Yardeni says chance of Y2K recession 100%. Here's hoping that's ALL we get.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 05:20 - ID#255151)

Howdy Kitcoites--Ed Yardeni says chance of Y2K recession 100%. Here's hoping that's ALL we get.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 05:22 - ID#251165)
LME Dirt
Monday November 10, 4:50 am Eastern Time

LME says reviewing market intervention policy

By Abbas Salman

MANAMA, Nov 10 ( Reuters ) - The London Metal Exchange said on Monday it was reviewing its
market intervention policy as part of efforts to maintain its position in global metals trade.

``The LME has commercial, moral and legal obligations to maintain a proper and orderly market --
and we will take action whenever necessary to fulfil those responsibilities,'' LME Chief Executive
David King said.

Speaking at an aluminium conference in Bahrain, King said: ``Clearly, we will not intervene in market
activities unnecessarily and we do not take such actions lightly.''

He defended the LME's intervention in the aluminium market backwardation, or premium for spot
metal over forward prices.

``The limit on the 'backwardation' that we imposed earlier this year followed a deep and careful
examination of the market,'' King said. ``The fact that the backwardation disappeared almost
immediately speaks for itself.''

He said the LME was likely to first make clear ``our basic intervention policy -- in what
circumstances it is likely that the exchange will intervene in the market.''

Secondly, the LME would make clearer who at the exchange was involved in reviewing confidential
data, what data they reviewed and how they decided what steps might be necessary to address any
particular market development of an ``undesirable situation.''

The LME would also start publishing more information about positions held in the market if they are
above a certain size, in terms of futures, options and warrant holdings, without naming the holders of
those positions, King said.

``The publication of this data will place market users in a stronger position by alerting them of
potential tightness, enabling them to adjust their trading strategy if necessary.''

Finally, the LME would be looking into what form its intervention should actually take, King said,
adding ``there are other possible mechanisms which we might usefully consider including, for
example, position limits.''

King said metal turnover this year was forecast at 1.3 billion tonnes worth more than $2 trillion.

``Turnover in the last decade has multiplied tenfold, with projected figures for 1997 suggesting an
eventual turnover in excess of 55 million lots of futures and options business.''

``This equates to about 1.3 billion tonnes of metal with a value of well over $2 trillion,'' he said.

King said projected official exchange business in primary aluminium was turnover of around 24
million lots, or 600 million tonnes of metal, worth $1 trillion.

The LME's projected ratio of primary aluminium traded business in 1997 to Western world
production was some 39 to one, mainly because users could use the LME for hedging both
purchases and sales.

For copper, the projected ratio was 43 to one.

King said about 95 percent of LME business was being drawn from outside the United Kingdom.

Related News Categories: international, mining/metals

(Mon Nov 10 1997 05:24 - ID#255151)

Howdy fellow Kitcoites--Ed Yardeni says 100% chance of Y2k induced recession.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 05:26 - ID#255151)

The 05:24 URL is the correct one.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 05:26 - ID#251165)
Mouth Piece of China Speaks

(Mon Nov 10 1997 05:33 - ID#251165)
You dont need psychics
Monday November 10, 4:02 am Eastern Time

Hong Kong gold ends lower on foreign selling

HONG KONG, Nov 10 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong spot gold ended lower on Monday compared to
New York's previous close, pushed down by selling by international banks and others, traders said.

Bullion ended at US$308.90/309.40 per ounce compared to New York's previous close at
US$310.00/50 on Friday.

``There was good offering interest by some foreign banks and good physical buying to place a floor
on prices,'' a trader said.

Selling by funds and producers also pushed down the price, traders said.

The physical buying came at around the US$309.50 level and the outlook was for further price
declines, a trader said.

``Sentiment is still bearish. Despite the uncertainty in other financial markets, gold derived very little
benefit,'' a trader said.

Local tael gold ended HK$10 down at HK$2,848.

The carry over charge at the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society was -8.58, down from its
previous fix at -8.0.

Related News Categories: mining/metals

(Mon Nov 10 1997 05:38 - ID#251165)
@ crazy numbers
Hang Seng -111.66 -1.11%

(Mon Nov 10 1997 05:46 - ID#251165)
@ SA Gold mines could be safe?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 06:50 - ID#286199)
@where is everyone?
Hedging and Stillwater:

Stillwater Mining's
Hedging For Metals Has Hurt Stock


If you invested in a company in the
palladium and platinum business and
the price of those precious metals
soared, you'd expect the stock to go up,

But that isn't what happened to shares
of Stillwater Mining Co. when palladium
and platinum prices jumped earlier this
year to 17-year and seven-year peaks,
respectively, driven by lower Russian
inventories and the growth of catalytic

Stillwater Mining

Business: Platinum/palladium mining

Year ended
1996 1995
Revenue ( in millions ) $56.21 $51.34
Net Income ( in millions ) $11.08 $0.07
Share earnings $0.54 Nil

Latest quarter ( Sept. 30, 1997 )
Per-share earnings: -$0.08 vs. -$0.04
Average daily volume: 76,005 shares
Shares outstanding: 20.3 million
Trailing P/E: Nil
Dividend yield: Loss in most recent four quarters

Even though Stillwater claims the largest
proven North American ore body of
palladium and platinum, its stock, by
comparison, didn't fully benefit from the
metals prices' rally. On Friday, it fell
9/16 to 19 7/16 in the American Stock
Exchange composite trading.

What happened? In January, with the
price of its precious metals falling,
Denver-based Stillwater hedged its bets
by agreeing to sell about 30% of the
platinum it produced and 88% of the
palladium it produced at fixed prices
through 1998. The hedge contracts were
entered into with Goldman, Sachs & Co.,
British bank NM Rothschild & Sons Ltd.,
and Iselin, N.J. catalyst manufacturer
Engelhard Corp.

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
The rates agreed upon sat about $20
above the going market rate for the
metals. Moreover, Stillwater had
arranged so-called spot-deferred
contracts, which allowed the company
the option of postponing the prearranged

But there was a catch. Under such
popular arrangements, mining companies
cannot postpone the sales if buyers are
willing to pay a premium rate to get the
metal immediately. That's exactly what
happened to both palladium and
platinum this year.

As supplies became tighter, Stillwater
could no longer defer the prearranged
sales profitably, and was forced to sell
thousands of ounces of the metals $40
to $80 below market prices. "The market
turned against the company," says Gina
Wilson, Stillwater's director of investor
relations. "No one could predict that."

Vahid Fathi, a mining analyst for ABN
Amro Chicago Corp., says the hedges
will cost Stillwater about 30 cents a
share this year. If Stillwater could sell
the metal at the spot-market price, he
estimates, it would show a profit of 20
cents a share. As it is, he projects a
10-cent loss.

Why do so many companies use hedges
that trade away such a big share of the
upside in their core commodities? Two
words: stable earnings. The companies
hope such hedging can smooth out
bumps in their earnings that
commodity-price swings would otherwise
produce. In an environment of
commodity-price disinflation, after all,
such moves generally wouldn't sacrifice
much in price gains.

Paul Spraos, publisher of Derivatives
Sales Alert, which tracks such hedging
activity, says the number of
oil-producing companies that hedge
production grew to 109 last year from 33
in 1992. Meanwhile, gold-mining
companies contracted 1,800 tons of the
metal to be sold at a fixed price last
year, more than four times the amount
in 1989. And in copper, producers
hedged 47% of world production,
compared with 40% three years ago.

Some experts say it's a good idea. "The
discipline of financial engineering is one
that allows firms to choose what risks
they do and don't want to take on," says
Peter Tufano, a hedging expert at
Harvard Business School. "The increase
in hedging activity is a reasonably
healthy trend" -- particularly for
commodity companies that need stable
revenues to help fund future expansion.

But Stillwater's view has changed. "A
mistake like that was unlikely to go
unpunished," says ABN Amro's Mr. Fathi.
"Shareholders are very unforgiving, and
somebody paid." Holders including
American Express/IDS funds, Fidelity
Investments and the mutual funds unit
of Prudential Insurance Co. of America
revolted over the hedging policy and
other issues.

Now, after naming a new chief executive
officer and three new directors in
August, Stillwater is reconsidering its
hedge policy.

"It's been clear that our shareholders
want to have the upside available to
them, so to hedge away the upside is a
very bad strategy," says William E.
Nettles, chairman and chief executive.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 06:56 - ID#286199)
This answers several questions about Platinum coins and delays at Blanchard are mentioned -

November 10, 1997
Going Platinum: U.S. Mint
Strikes Vein With New Coins


The U.S. Mint has added platinum coins
to the menu of precious metals it offers

And so far, coin investors and the Mint
are encountering a very different
commodity from the usual fare of silver
and gold.

Through last week, the Mint confirmed
sales of 83,030 ounces of the U.S.
Platinum Eagle coins since September,
when the bullion coins were first offered.
In 10 months alone, the Eagle has
pushed North American platinum
investment demand to a 12-year high as
coin dealers increase marketing to
bolster sagging enthusiasm for precious
metals in general.

Like gold bullion coins, a one-ounce
Platinum Eagle sells near the "spot"
commodity price, a much higher figure
than the $100 face value of the coin.
After trading on Friday, a one-ounce
Platinum Eagle could be bought for
about $390 apiece, while one-ounce gold
bullion coins could be purchased for
about $310.

The expected increase in investment
demand for platinum comes on the heels
of a supply shortage, something not
seen for silver and gold in years. And if
platinum remains difficult to find, some
analysts say the added coin demand
could accentuate price spikes and add to
industrial users' difficulty in buying or
leasing the metal.

The Mint acknowledges that it will face
new challenges marketing a metal for
investment that can slip into supply
shortages. "The forces that drive
platinum prices and platinum demand
are very different from those that drive
gold," says Philip N. Diehl, director of
the Mint. "Platinum is much more of an
industrial metal. There are not stockpiles
above ground like there is for gold, and
there is uncertainty about Russian

This year provided a timely illustration.
When Russian contracts to sell platinum
were delayed and rumblings of labor
problems emerged at South African
mines, platinum prices rose quickly from
four-year lows to seven-year highs. And
for most of the year, the commodity has
traded in "backwardation," a condition
reflecting tight supply in which
consumers are willing to pay a premium
for the immediate delivery of the

Faced with purchasing a skyrocketing
commodity, the Mint has turned to a
complex buying strategy more common
to bullion banks and trading rooms. For
the first time in 11 years of selling
precious-metals coins to investors, the
Mint has started to purchase the metal
for the program with forward-contracts,
which lock in a price months before the
product is actually delivered.

In this year's market, that strategy has
saved the U.S. government a few dollars
an ounce, Mr. Diehl says. Since physical
platinum currently costs $3 an ounce
more than platinum to be delivered in
two months, buying it for future delivery
amounts to a sale price for the

The strategy could backfire on the
government, however, if prices fall
sharply. In the past two trading days
alone, platinum futures prices have
fallen $15.50 a troy ounce on the New
York Mercantile Exchange as January
platinum bought two days ago at
$404.50 is now worth only $389 an

So far, about 33,000 ounces of the metal
have been bought forward. Mr. Diehl said
this keeps the Mint from being exposed
to the costly proposition of buying the
platinum on the spot market. Without
the forward purchases, "we'd have to
lease the platinum, and with lease rates
getting as high as 100% [earlier this
year], that becomes prohibitive. You
can't afford to pay high-lease rates. It's
crippling to the financial viability of the

The coin investor feels the impact of the
recent tight market conditions as well,
says Jonathan E. Potts, vice president of
precious-metals services at Wilmington
Trust Co., a Delaware retailer of the
Platinum Eagle. When the market slips
into backwardation, platinum for future
delivery sells at a discount to the coins.
Since platinum is often more expensive
to buy for immediate delivery,
"mathematically, investors are better off
buying futures contracts," he says.
Longer-term investors with intentions of
holding onto the coins for years will find
more convenience and ability to buy
smaller quantities through the coin
program, however.

Delays in delivering the coins could also
be a problem. Coin dealer Blanchard &
Co. of New Orleans reported delivery of
the Platinum Eagles had stretched as
long as six months, compared with a
normal shipping time of about three
weeks for gold. Like Blanchard, most
coin dealers keep low inventories of the
metal due to the high storage cost
compared with gold.

On the industrial side, some
manufacturers fear that investors will
hoard the metal in times of scarcity,
making it even harder to find for the
industrial user, who uses platinum to
manufacture automotive catalytic
converters, jewelry and electronic

While the expected Platinum Eagle
demand of about 100,000 ounces a year
adds up to 2% of annual world-wide
platinum demand and others contend
that new sales could merely cannibalize
sales of other nations' platinum coins,
manufacturers "don't want anyone to
want the metal because any additional
demand will contribute to tightness in
the market," says Ellen Zadoff, market
research manager for Johnson Matthey in
Valley Forge, Pa.

George Cole
(Mon Nov 10 1997 06:56 - ID#42953)
the scene
Asia down modestly this morning; Europe mixed. Gold now off just 50 cents; Joberg down 1.1%. No crash today folks.

With gold again showing good support arpound $308-$309. looks like a rally is coming up. How strong it will be is anyone's guess. The funds are massively short again and commercials heavily long.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 07:07 - ID#286199)
The U.S. dollar is stronger against nearly all currencies this morning.
The Heng Seng is below 10,000
The Nikkei lost ground again.
Globex futures show postive for Dow and Nasdaq
George Cole is correct, no crash this morning.
Oldman is in first place for predictions.

Wake up Ted

George Cole
(Mon Nov 10 1997 07:19 - ID#42953)
gold rally
December gold now flat despite strong dollar. I repeat. We are going to rally. Whether this is a major turn or just another bounce is anyone's guess.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 07:21 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 10 1997 07:25 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 10 1997 07:29 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 10 1997 07:34 - ID#57232)
Auric,Nick ( @Aussie ) : Ed Yardini - last I checked was bullish of the US markets -- babyboomers and all that. He strikes me as a very astute,unbiased economic advisor. His negative comments regarding y2k are ominous indeed!
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Regardless of what will happen today and tomorrow, Japan and South Korea are still heading south. If Japan reaches 15,000 I would guess that the outcome will be quick. A world-wide currency crisis is then possible. If that happens, the markets may indeed lock up, and the worlds Central Banks will do everything in their power to save the world currency system, and the markets will be secondary. The turmoil may be such that derivatives will not trade for long periods of time. If Saddam starts a war about this time, the markets will drop even faster -- except oil! This will shake out whatever gold the Central banks have left to sell.
During these difficult times, we should all go out to smell the flowers. Nick -- don't forget to take some time off from the markets. I think in a few weeks the turmoil will be even greater, unless Japan does something drastic. Unlikely given their economic system.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 07:40 - ID#57232)
Donald: Fed watchers say they will not raise rates. That makes sense. However, I think during a crisis the dollar will have first priority, and the markets second. If Japan implodes -- more and more likely every day -- a possible currency crisis will cause rates to go up and not down. AG will not even have to do anything, as the markets will do it for him.
Do you think Saddam senses a vulnerable period in the Western World?
Also -- Warren Buffet may not have been that smart after all, unless those 2 billion in zero coupon bonds have at least a 2 year from now expiration date.

Mike Stewart
(Mon Nov 10 1997 07:40 - ID#270253)
Toronto Gold Index in the last 15 Years:

Bear Market 1983-1985 -49.6% 1987-1989 -49.7% 1990-1992 -48.0%

Current decline from a level of 13,200 to Fridays's low of 7005 is -46.9%.

Capitulation in South African shares took place last month, now it is the North American turn. Buying shares here would be prudent based on long term charts.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 07:41 - ID#333131)
Good news in Michigan - #1!! Go Blue and GOLD!!!!!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 07:42 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 10 1997 07:49 - ID#351224)
@asia bailout costs

(Mon Nov 10 1997 07:52 - ID#26793)
Hi JTF: The bond market is much larger and more important than the stock market. The Fed will drop everything else to defend it. It is their prime job and real worry. You could even say that any effort they extend to support the stock market is really because of fears that it could disrupt bonds. I am talking about Treasury bonds, notes and bills, not corporate bonds.

Many here at Kitco feel that the Fed will just print money in a crunch. That is unlikely because it would destroy the bond market confidence that they took two hundred years to build. It would jeopardize future issues for many generations. Not something they are likely to do in my opinion.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:00 - ID#390214)
Fast Track Derailed in U.S. House
...good morning all....WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Bill Clinton suffered a major setback to a key element of his economic policy on
Monday when he failed to muster sufficient votes in the House of Representatives to pass fast track trade authority.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:08 - ID#344308)

you've just repeated what the fed did in the
years leading-up to the '29 crash. they inflated
the money supply by 40%+ and made credit very
easy for all concerned.

look at the parallels......history does repeat, and
the future can be fore-cast with these facts. the events
are easy, timing is a bitch.

cherokee!; ) preparing-to-launch-golden-grained-arrows-in-all-directions

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:08 - ID#31868)
China, France and Russia vs the Us and England on the floor of the UN as it relates to Iraq.

Interesting eh. Treasury bonds and LBMA vs arch rival of England, the growing and emerging economies of Russia and China and at the root of all of it, minus the smoke screen of starving civilians and war...oil.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:16 - ID#401460)
Good job Blue,Enjoy, while it last - GO BUCKS!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:17 - ID#351224)
@Suharto v IMF/190M angry Indonesians!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:18 - ID#364147)
@ Speed
I'm awake ( ??? ) Good mornin....Dec. gold @ UNCH

George Cole
(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:20 - ID#42953)
Mike Stewart: Thanks for those numbers on past bear markets in the TSE Gold Index. I doubt the final lows are in, but I do agree this is the time to begin gradually reentering the market on dollar cost averaging basis. For when the gold shares do turn for real, they could move up mighty fast.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:23 - ID#346256)
SPEED, your post on hedging used by some of the mining companies
companies is certainly to the point.
You buy their stock in good faith with your hard earned money, and
then some of them sell forward under adverse conditions to a more
than normal degree, which hurts the poor shareholder right in his
pocketbook. Shame on the ones that take it to an extreme.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:24 - ID#287277)
To: JTF#Consider.this


Good morning.
Re: SDR and its stability, or lack thereof

Some months ago, when I wondered where all this was heading, I donned a CB hat and asked, What have I got that can save the system?.

Because I believe that is the end game: the system must be saved. At any cost.

What I had ( my CB had ) was a very private, very global exchange medium, already in place, and established rules for its use ( in public and PRIVATE transactions of ALL kinds ) .

My findings, and my reasoning ( such as they are ) can be summarized--?--by glancing at two posts: Wed Nov 5, 1997 at 13:03 and Sun, 11/9/97 at 11:10.

Also, please take a quick look at the A team working ( to my mind ) on this task

I dont think these chaps are running a consultancy to pick up a few books selling studies/reports etc. The membership lists is more than impressive; it is mind boggling.

Now that this much is in place, they will start re-structing 'soveriegn debt' [i.e. converting into SDR 'Brady Bonds' and dumping into a secure computer ( by secure, I mean PRIVATE--personally I think they may be looking forward to y2k...but then I getting less stable by the hour. )
I would be interested in your assessment.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:24 - ID#426220)
They Can't Take 'em Up !

It's always hard to take 'em down, but this week they either can't
take 'em up, or certainly can't keep 'em up. And that's not good.
Supply easily exceeds demand in this market, which is more
important than probably hits most investors at first blush. Gene Inger shares his stock market wisdom with us:

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:29 - ID#286199)
@leaving for work
Murray: Stillwater has changed management and filled most of their platinum hedging contracts. Unfortunately, they hedged most of next years palladium production and they mine more palladium than platinum. The hedged companies do better in a bear market, the unhedged companies will make more money in a rally. You pays your money, you takes your chances. What miffs me is that Stillwater didn't make their hedging public until way after the fact. Honesty in a mining company? Perhaps I expect too much. BBML

George Cole
(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:32 - ID#42953)
fast track
Seems to me that fast track will have a big impact on the market's near-term direction. If Bill and Newt prevail, market could very well rally several hundred points before turning down again. But if fast track doesn't make it, Dow probably will retest the October lows in short order.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:33 - ID#30116)
Speed -- Thanks for the Stillwater story.

G'Morning Ted!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:36 - ID#340459)
Physical Glitter is being buried under Mountain of Paper, Serious Mining needed, LME is a sham

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:39 - ID#340459)
Who needs Gold, When they can swindle you with derivates

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:41 - ID#78116)
The Dow rallied up 100 points in the last hour on Friday. European stocks are coming back, the Dow looks like it will open on the up side. Gold lurks at its lows. Even a pending dust up with Saddam Insane cant move either gold or oil very much.

Once again the sky has not fallen. For all the predictions of disasters to come, all we see around the world is business as usual, a market correction but not a collapse.

Certainly there are problems. But these problems are man made. They can and will be solved by men. The financial markets may indeed correct some more, but the reality is that the middle class in this country continue to poor billions into equities each month through their retirement funds. That, my fellow Looneybin inhabitants, is what is holding up this market, not central bankers, not some strange conspiracy, just a look of individuals operating on automatic pilot. Most dont even know how to change their investment allocation much less stop it. And you can bet it will continue to for some time to come.

Hoot and holler all you like. But over the long investment horizon of
most of the IRA/401k investors, equities will return 12-15% a year. They have consistently done that for the past 20+ years and the global economy today is certainly in better shape now than it was in 1975.

As for gold it is a dead relic. Its not even paper any more that represents wealth, its electrons on screens. We are no more going back to gold than doctors are going back to blood letting with leeches or Catholics are going back to burning heretics at the stake. The world changes, and for the most part it changes for the better.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:45 - ID#333131)
SDRer, Would you be so kind as to re post the two posts you refer to. I missed them and can not go back to them. This sounds like very important stuff you're working on. I think all of us should give it serious study and comment. Carl

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:46 - ID#288155)

I found the inclusion of Sir Roderick Carnegie in the group of 30 verrrrry interesting ( particularly in light of gold's travails ) .

Look at the membership list. What is he doing there? mmmmmmm?

Spud Master
(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:47 - ID#288154)
...welcome back, LGB...

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:48 - ID#390214)
The Feds 'manipulative' ESF (used to prop up the Dow?)

FEW people knew that the Exchange Stabilization
Fund even existed in 1995, when the multi-billion
dollar account was used to bail out the Mexican
economy. Back then, the ESF was a huge, secretive
hoard of money that the Treasury Department used
with great reluctance.

Today, the ESF has become Washington's mad
money. And there was nothing madder than using a
bundle from the account to bail out the Indonesian
economy two weeks ago.

One of the most troublesome things is that the ESF
money is no longer used reluctantly. It's like the roll of
bills your rich uncle used to flash whenever he needed
a favor.

But by flashing this $40 billion stash, Washington is
leaving itself open to a mugging by any country with
financial troubles and a sob story about how the U.S.
would be affected by its problems.

In other words, it's our blackmail account.

Here's what we did with Indonesia: As part of the
effort to save that country's economy from going down
the chute, the U.S. agreed to provide $3 billion in
back-up money as part of a rescue effort headed by
the International Monetary Fund. The IMF, which is
also funded mainly by the U.S., gave Indonesia $15
billion in the deal, which required that country to
institute some reforms.

I have nothing against Indonesia. Or Thailand. Or
Hong Kong. Or any other place in Asia, Latin
America or Europe that might find itself in financial
jeopardy. There is a global economy and one market
does affect others.

But in a world where the U.S. can get as entangled in
foreign affairs through financial involvements as easily
as military ones, someone ought to be watching this
bank account.

The ESF has long been a big mystery. It was created
as part of the 1934 Gold Reserve Act. It's supposed
to be used for "stabilizing the exchange value of the

Even more frightening, the money is "under the
exclusive control of the Treasury secretary, subject to
approval of the president."

Congress has no say in its use, as we learned when
billions were provided to Mexico two years ago.

I first discovered the ESF back in the early 1990s,
when sources were telling me its money was being
used to prop up America's faltering stock market. The
story, which couldn't be confirmed then and can't now,
was that the Treasury was using ESF funds to
intervene on Wall Street's behalf by surreptitiously
purchasing huge amounts of stock derivatives.

Treasury was all hush-hush about the existence of the
ESF until Mexico's economy started failing two years
ago. Suddenly Washington owned up to the existence
of this account, which was believed to have grown to
a value of more than $20 billion.

Why did we bail out Mexico? The official reason was
that the country's proximity to the U.S. made it a
matter of national importance.

And no, the proponents of the bailout said, it had
nothing to do with the fact that Robert Rubin, the
Treasury secretary who "exclusively controls" the ESF
account, had former clients from his days as chairman
of Goldman Sachs & Co. who were taking a beating
on Mexican investments.

Why are we bailing out Indonesia? The official reason
is that "financial stability around the world is critical to
the national security and economic interests of the
U.S." The nearly-devastating stock market collapse
two weeks ago undoubtedly made Washington fearful
that Indonesia's problems would become our

But other Asian nations have had financial problems
recently. So why did we single out Indonesia? Could it
be because Indonesia billionaire Mochtar Riady and
his U.S. agent John Huang are so close to President
Clinton, the guy who must approve the use of the ESF

And how many others are out there who might call in a
favor or two from Bill Clinton or some future president
by asking for emergency ESF funds? Japan buys
billions in Washington bonds. Hong Kong's future is
extremely important to the world. And China is our
largest trading partner, not to mention the new home
of Charlie Trie, who is ducking a U.S. Congress that
wants to ask him questions about Clinton.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:49 - ID#340459)
Seek Resumption in Bullion from these Producers, Their Hedging activities are nefarious

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:51 - ID#340459)
David King at LME, Are you short or Long

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:54 - ID#364147)
@ Panda
Mornin Panda.....Heavy fog here....

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:55 - ID#340459)
nomercy, Thanks for your post and great article

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:55 - ID#288155)
Is it possible that the paradigm has changed, a new algorithm is in place, the game has been rest, and winning or losing depends on adjusting what we watch to align with the new set?

Holding in abeyance political and moral judgments, I ask you to consider the following arguments, investigate them at the URLs provided, weigh the evidence and share your conclusions with the Kitco folks.

1. There is in place a functioning, de facto global currency, and it is the SDR.

A. The IMF website has been radically altered since first investigated in 93/94.
1 ) At this time, there is a clear, unequivocal statement that the purpose of the IMF/World Bank is to ensure stable currency ( ies ) .
2 ) There is a lengthy bibliography of decisions by the Executive Directors/ Board on such matters as: settlement of financial obligations; uses in pledges; uses in forward operations; uses in donations; uses in loans; uses in the performance of financial obligations.
3 ) There is a clear, unequivocal statement that the SDR is to be used in private and public transactions ( although, at this time, there are only 15 vested institutions authorized to act as agents ) .
4 ) If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...

B. From the March 1996 IMF Seminar , in Greenspan-speak ( there is obviously a hi-level course where this is taught--probably at Davos ) : The SDR does not appear LIKELY to become the PRINCIPAL reserve asset of the international monetary system . ( Caps mine, of course. )
1 ) There is an imperative obligation to maintain credere, belief.
All money is a matter of belief. ( Adam Smith, Paper Money )
2 ) Given this obligation, WB/IMF is obligated to operate in such a manner that markets are not roiled, and citizens are unconcerned ( or unknowing, preferably both ) .
3 ) The above considerations place upon us the obligation to look at what is being done as well as what stated intentions are.
4 ) If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...

C. The currencies included in the current basket, which are those of the five member countries with the largest exports of goods and services during 1990- 94.... The current basket will be in effect until December 31, 2000.
1 ) Unless they change the rules ( always possible with governments ) this means that China will be a basket currency ( no pun intended folks ) in 2000. ( Just in time for Y2K? )
2 ) The above means that China will be obligated to have a convertible currency.
3 ) The Chinese government has said ( circa 92-94 ) that they would link their currency to gold. Did they mean it?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:57 - ID#253316)
There are a few billion people in China and India that will disagree
with your uneducated ramblings. Would enlighten you further, but its off
to work. PS, learn to spell in grammar school today.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 08:57 - ID#31868)
Karlito: I disagree when you postulate that electrons are the message and not the messenger. The fact that something ( store of value ) can move at high speed does not mean that it has to be the figment standard paper which is utilized currently.

The clear and certain image drawn on today's financial easel certainly shows that electrons representing paper are not trusted. The turmoil in the world will get worse, as it is, and the end result will in my opinion be tying the messenger to the ultimate form of money. Gold, the tried, true and trusted real money.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:04 - ID#288155)
I respectfully ask that the Cadre turn the force of their considerable collective brain power, and their individual mental acuity, to the ways the oligarchy will attempt to deal with the global implosion. May I take the liberty of putting my concerns before you?

For some time I have been perplexed by the explanations as to why there was no
inflation; if productivity was the answer, why did the trade deficit grow? Why did it feel like my dollar was worth less?

The answer I have come to is that the dollar has quietly been devalued, against what I believe WB/IMFand the CBs hope to establish as the new key currency., the Special Drawing Right or SDR. The Canadian government, in a briefing paper prepared for Halifax, had a throw away sentence that caught my attention: the SDR was created ...to replace the less than reliable dollar.

The new key currency will differ from its predecessors in several compelling ways: it is the child of the bankers, and will never leave home; it belongs to no country, is treasured by no populace. It will be the Accounting Tool for the highest echelons of global government, multinational commerce and global political forces ( e.g., the Greens ) . This key currency will be the Yahweh of all currencies ever issued; its name, like Yahweh, to sacred to be spoken aloud.

I believe this is their response. I do not think it was seriously worked on before 1993-1994; but reading through stacks of very boring stuff, it seems apparent that Something happened around that time that energized everyone. Why does it matter?

At the outset, SDR1=USD1. As of 7/16/97 the exchange is SDR1=USD 1.381.

That sure holds inflation down.

And now we are supposed to fear deflation. Cash will be king and gold will be dead. Oh yes? What cash? In what country?

I would feel less angst were I more confident that the citizenry were less credulous.
The last two US presidential elections proved, beyond a reasonable doubt, that character doesnt matter, feel good matters, and it is possible to fool enough of the people enough of the time to do just about anything. The oligarchy has lead us were they willed: from Somalia to Bosnia we have absorbed their carefully crafted plays, bleated and wept, and not thought at all. We have become a people incapable, apparently, of reasoned discrimination and judgment.

I look around and I see a marshaling of political forces. The most powerful, global political force is the Greens; they will be offered the Tobin Tax. Multinationals will sit down at the table because the hidden currency dessert is too tempting to resist. Bankrupt governments, and they are legion, will join the party because they cant afford not to join the party. It will be a real last supper.

Like you, and Isaac Newton, I believe gold is honest money, and the appropriate currency for an honest populace. While I would not be so rash as to see some of my fellow citizens as charlatans, I must admit to serious reservations about their moral sensibilities. Do we deserve gold?

OOPS! In first re-post; the current basket end date is 31 Dec 1999 ( of corse ) and the intro sentence refers to the game re-set, not REST ( we should be so lucky. Do take a moment to look at the list of members for the Group of 30.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:04 - ID#31868)
Karlito: One more thing, fifty percent of your image depicting gold as a relic has already been trashed by modern medicine. Leeches have become embraced as one of the single most effective methods to treat certain human conditions. Specifically the removal of dead flesh and excess blood inhibiting recovery while at the same time staving off infection.

It would seem that in certain instances, in order to move forward we must look to the past.

Crystal Ball
(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:05 - ID#287367)
Welcome back, Cherokee! How's the flux flyin?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:07 - ID#340459)
@LME London (UK)
London News:Spot gold "held up well" and showed some resilience by recovering marginally after
selling pressure overnight, dealers said. But a convincing attempt to break resistance
at around $310.00 was thwarted by producer forward selling, one said.

Crystal Ball
(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:09 - ID#287367)
They're even using maggots nowadays to clean up wounds with rotting flesh

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:11 - ID#7568)

Once again the silver bid in Europe/Asia is higher than New York. Look for more metal to come out of Comex heading for destination unknown, but outside the USA. When this squeeze is accomplished there will be no one around to point the finger at. The metal will just disappear and the regulators will be fighting over the crumbs.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:13 - ID#340459)
SDRer@ID#288155. Great Post Brother

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:14 - ID#390214)
Texas sues Microsoft claiming the software company interfered with a state antitrust probe
Microsoft allegedly used a clause in its contracts with computer makers
to make them less willing to cooperate with investigators. Microsoft
requires computer makers using its operating software to inform it
before providing any information to state and federal investigators,
Attorney General Dan Morales said.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:15 - ID#26793)
SDRer: I haven't really thought this through so I reserve the right to change my mind! You seem to be suggesting a one currency SDR world. Am I correct?

Politicians are not going to let bankers make that decision on their own. It would be debated long before it was enacted. Bankers might try to have an SDR currency circulating along side other currencies, competing with them, they might be able to get away with that. But in order for any currency to survive it must be fully exchangeable with gold by any person on demand. If the SDR does that it has a chance, otherwise, it will always compete with gold. Will be out most of the day. See you later.

SPud Master
(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:15 - ID#288154)
when it rains, it's raining Maple Leaf's from Canada...
Karlito, Tolerant1 is most apropo: the newest anticoagulant is a protein derived from leech secretions, and "blood letting" ( aka "donating blood" in modern parlance ) is being advocated for men as way to decrease their blood iron-levels which predispose them to all manner of oxidative diseases. And now, with no further ado, away with Spud to collect her newly arrived 10 ounces of lovely, real, tangible, fungible, liquid, accepted anywhere in geography AND history Candian Maple Leafs.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:19 - ID#427357)
THE DINES LETTER - November 10, 1997

Internationally acclaimed market analyst, James Dines, shares his insights and foresights with us about current currency crisis.

Asia is awash in hammered & cascading currencies. The deluge of devaluations in South East Asia is spilling over into other countries on the opposite side of the globe -- and will wreak havoc in world stock markets. The Currency Contagion continues unabated...

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:20 - ID#260194)

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:21 - ID#31868)
Bill Clinton is in dangerous territory. He has no credibility anymore, with anyone. This fast track vote drove the wooden stake through the heart of his credibility.

Republicans and Democrats must be sitting around ( citizens ) and asking themselves what is going on. The fast track whores meeting over the weekend is not going to sit well with anyone.

A smart, independant, well funded run for the Whitehouse in 2000 could be interesting to watch for sure.

Spud Master
(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:21 - ID#288154)
it's called "bioremediation"...
Crystal Ball - re. maggots to eat up dead flesh. Yes, several US hospitals keep a stock of certain fly larvae which they use in difficult cases of necrotic tissue ( diabetis for ex. ) . The larvae eliminate dead tissue before pathenogenic bacteria cause *REAL* damage. Additionally, one of the newest antibiotics being tested is a product of said fly larvae - seems the fly large besides liking dead tissue, don't like to compete with bacteria for it. Poor Karlito/LGB - you should practice your "Big Lie" technique more carefully. Now, really, off to collect the filthy lucre...

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:24 - ID#340459)
Physical, Does NOT Rust, Safe from NY Maggots, Devoid of Race/Language/Exchange limitations. Acceptable in Libya or Lisbon

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:24 - ID#260194)
Try this one:

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:27 - ID#33180)
gold rising
Gold up from 309 to 311 in the last hour. What's up, folks?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:30 - ID#288157)
@OhMyGoodness.It's a Very Monday Monday
How Nick's earthquake URL ended up in the re-post, I don't know ( as I live in earthquake country, I hope to God it's not an omen )

If anyone can identify Lord Richardson of Duntisbourne, KG, Honorary Chairman, Group of Thirty, I'd like to know. Knights of the Garter are not thick on the ground, so I suspect it's a Royal or the Duke of Westminster. Three of the thirty seem incongruent to the group ( to me, at any rate ) but I suspect all are there for a reason.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:34 - ID#7568)

The devaluation craze continues to work its magic. The South Korean Won, Lost about 2.5% of its value last night. Korean devaluation is going to be very bad for Japan because they are direct competitors in the consumer electronics field. The Won has Lost about 20% of its value in the last few months and is breathing down the 1000 level.

Off to toil in the paper canyons. Have a good day.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:36 - ID#31868)
I heard this analogy once, not really sure who used it. But I am going to borrow it and use it for this post.

The US dollar has already been devalued. All US paper is suspect. What is being shown to the patrons ( people utilizing dollars and US paper ) is a beautiful, magnificent cake. It is being served up on an exquiste plate and placed on the table setting before each and every wide eyed patron holding a fork.

The problem is that when the fork meets the icing, it seeks out the delicious reward of mouthwatering cake below.

The problem to the dismay of the patrons is that they have been sold a hideously fake bill of goods.

Four inches of icing and, guess cake.

Or for the hamburger imbibing crew,"WHERE'S THE BEEF."

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:39 - ID#31868)
Ah, like a horse to water. Could someone please post or tell me how to go view the list of thirty. Thank you.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:41 - ID#78116)
I stand corrected on the use of leeches in modern medicine. I am sure there are Catholics who would love to burn a few heretics at the stake as well.

WRT China and India, while there is still massive poverty in both countries there has been unimaginable material progress in both countries. There are more middle class households in both countries than in any country in Europe.

I still see all of the precious metals in a long term bear market. Technology has dramatically reduced the industrial demand for all of them, and will continue to do so for the rest of my investment horizon. At best, gold is a hedge against inflation. What we should be worried about is deflation. In a deflationary environment, hard assets lose their value, high quality paper assets rise in value.

And finally, I am not LGD, I did enjoy his sense of humor, I disagree with his view on the precious metals. I gotta run to a meeting... maybe we'll see you all some time later....

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:41 - ID#288157)
To: Donald@09:15

In 'normal' circumstances you would be quite right.
These are far from 'normal times'. The politicos have a million acre, uncontrolled forest fire on their hands. They want that fire OUT. They'll worry about re-forestration LATER.
The SDR WILL NOT be "circulated" as we accept the term.
This is a new game set.

As for gold: China may have a word or two about that. China is now the 500 pound gorilla. They said ( circa 92-94 ) that they meant to link their currency to gold...
As we will never walk around with the SDR jingling in Our pockets, it seems to me we'll need gold more than ever.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 09:44 - ID#288157)
Group of Thirty

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:08 - ID#215208)
Speed - Good article re: SWC, but not news, as you know. I wonder if there is any significance to the fact that the SWC article is in the WSJ now, as opposed to when the hedging was announced.

Changing the subject, the ramp up to 2k tons/day is about complete. I would guess that SWC will announce the resumption of work on the East Boulder mine around the end of the year. As I recall, East Boulder is also permited for 2k tons/day, thus doubling SWC's production. This announcement should generate some interest.

I think the current weakness in SWC stock is related to the weakness in platinum. Since nearly all their palladium is hedged, only platinum price variations can affect their earnings. Might make sense to take advantage of this weakness to add to SWC positions.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:16 - ID#287207)
A disturbing thought: If gold follows its recent pattern of minimal responce to international events it may yet fall below $300 if/when the pattern is confirmed again via Iraq.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:16 - ID#427357)
The "flight to quality" into the U.S. induced such a tremendous
rise in the US$ that those currencies pegged to the greenback
came under pressure. The underlying assets in Asia and South
America became overvalued. They are not worth as much as
implied by the present value of the US$. It is important to
understand that the flight from the Euro into the US$ is the first
and main reason for the present currency crisis in Asia:

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:22 - ID#333131)
SDRer, Thanks

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:26 - ID#206358)
HONG KONG BANKS CRISIS ....or just rumours?....try this:
Everythings are possible....!WHY NOT!!!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:30 - ID#31868)
SDRer: Thanks, list of 30.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:32 - ID#206358)

the breaking news read ................just for reference...Sine the currency,stocks are under-attack.the gold seems the best investment now for the north-east regions....

11/10/97 -- 10:13 AM

Customers withdraw money following
Hong Kong bank run rumors

HONG KONG ( AP ) - Depositors rushed to branches of a Hong Kong
bank today to pull their money, prompting the government to deny that
any banks were experiencing financial troubles.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the territory's de facto central
bank, said it was aware of claims that ``certain banks were experiencing
financial difficulties,'' but said the ``rumors are without foundation.''

Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Donald Tsang said the territory's
banking system was sound.

Customers formed lines outside offices of the International Bank of Asia,
a subsidiary of Bahrain-based Arab Banking Corp. It is 20 percent
owned by China Everbright-IHD Pacific Ltd.

Mike Murad, the bank's vice chairman, said withdrawals were heavier
than normal.

``It is a minor run and we have not computed the exact numbers,'' he told
a news conference. ``However, measuring the traffic we witness, the
traffic was above average.''

``The rumors have been spreading for no reason,'' he said. ``The
fundamentals of this institution are strong, and we'll continue to be

Speculative attacks on the Hong Kong dollar, which is pegged to the
U.S. dollar, had sent Hong Kong share prices plunging last month,
rattling stock markets throughout the world.

Fears of further speculative attacks on the Hong Kong dollar have
pushed up interbank interest rates, hurting the property sector and banks,
which rely heavily on mortgage lending.

Analysts said smaller banks are seen as vulnerable to a weak property
market and high interest rates.

Murad said the 28 branches of the International Bank of Asia would
remain open well after the usual closing time to accommodate customers.
About 200 people packed the bank's headquarters. There were lines at
other branches as well.

``When I went shopping, I saw many people lining up in front of the
bank. I did not know what was happening but since I have a savings
account in this bank, I lined up, too,'' said one woman, who would not
give her name.

Arab Banking Corp. announced full backing for its subsidiary, saying
International Bank of Asia ``is fully capable of meeting all of its
obligations'' and that the parent company will provide additional support
to reassure depositors.

The Monetary Authority noted a recent assessment of the territory's
economy by the International Monetary Fund that found that because of
the strength of the local banking system, Hong Kong will be able to
``withstand the effects of the recent financial market volatility.''

Copyright 1997 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may
not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:42 - ID#28594)
In my family, weve always preferred my Mothers ( the original Mrs. Malaprop ) version of this aphorism:
You can lead a horse to drink, but you cant make him water.

For list--your more than welcome. Interesting consultancy group isn't it?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:46 - ID#340459)
Gold, GO man GO above 311 and stay above, Amen

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:49 - ID#31868)
SDRer: Yes, interesting. Given the fact that each and every individual has "insider" information, it is another way to suck money out of people. Based on what they say, others make various investment plays.

Whatever level it is on, they just look like a bunch of bookies to me. They just have more impressive titles instead of names like, Big Red, Noodles or Ringo the Rocket.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:52 - ID#333131)
Gin, Is there a Chinese equivalent expression to "Better Safe Than Sorry"?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:52 - ID#30116)

Karlito ( ) 09:41

In a deflation, paper loses badly. For stocks, earnings disappear or go negative. For bonds, note holders become concerned about note issuers repaying principle ( never mind interest on principle ) because earnings disappear or go negative. Same problem in both cases, no money. The value of the paper is based on the ability to repay debt or make money.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:53 - ID#57232)
@seeing the future - dimly
SDRer: your 8:24 - very interesting. Would be nice to know what the Group of Thirty are up to - Paul Volker made some warning statments about trouble ahead to retirees some time ago.
Here is something for you to nibble on: The LBME has been in existence for over 200 years, and gold is effectively changing hands as a currency at this site. If the world's currencies melt down, and a medium of exchange between Central Banks must be maintained, what will they use? How about the "gold standard"? Gold itself! I hope it never comes to this, but I think we know what the penultimate backup will be -- gold. If this happens, mere mortals like our fellow Kitcoites will no longer have money to use.
I agree with you that the "powers that be" - whoever they are - will want to maintain the world's current financial system, at all cost. The stock markets are secondary in a "knock-down - drag-out" fight.
I don't think the world has a viable substitute for the dollar right now, so it will be interesting if the Japanese are forced to sell all of their US treasuries. The Japanese certainly will not hesitate to sell treasuries when ever the dollar goes up -- so I doubt the US$ will rise during a "flight to safety" -- at least until the Japanese run out of treasuries. It will be interesting to see when the "powers that be" give up on holding gold down. They will eventually realize that they might need gold as the last resort medium of exchange.
My impression is that there are too many questions left unanswered to know what will happen next -- but I do know the current crises will not end until the El Nino abates. We may be talking about as long as a year until the dust settles.
A crisis in the Middle East would make the immediate future -- however unpleasant that might be -- simpler to predict.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 10:53 - ID#348169)
Here's a good one for all the self-righteous dipsters out there who are so sure that they know exactly what is going on in the world.

"We don't know a millionth of one percent about anything."
-Thomas Alva Edison

Elf - Check out a daily Dec. Gold chart. As I mentioned last Friday IF gold holds above $308 it has temporarily formed a double bottom and this is very often seen as a buying opportunity by chartists and so we can reasonably expect a nice little bounce. HOWEVER, it is also critical that this area holds as a move below the double bottom could very easily make for a swift $5-10 drop.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:00 - ID#57232)
@the_future, dimly
Jin: Looks like you have done it again -- News of that bank run in Hong Kong. Did you say that gold is now popular again? Are people buying?
Will be interesting if mainland China follows India's example, and decides to move to gold accounts. A gold-backed currency of some kind would be next.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:00 - ID#243180)
The Platinum delay re: Speed post of 06:56 must be relatively new. I placed an order at Blanchard in September and received Platinum coins within 2 weeks.

Now for my gold problem. BLANCHARD HAS STILL NOT DELIVERED MY GOLD EAGLES FROM AN ORDER I PLACED in AUGUST. I have received some numismatics ( from the same order ) , Maples Leafs, Silver Eagle, and much more BUT NOT MY GOLD EAGLES. ... why ? ...

BLANCHARD ----- ARE YOU LISTENING .... A new KITCO customer is emerging.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:00 - ID#340459)
Gold, GO man GO above 311 and stay above, Ameen

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:01 - ID#340459)
Gold, GO man GO above 311 and stay above, Ameen

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:04 - ID#386276)
England raised rates, in spite of market weakness,
Gov't Reserve policy direction, decided for ecomomy not markets.
Will the US Fed, follow his previous warnings, and raise rates,
Due to US economy direction, not US markets direction.
This would be a true move, by the MAN.

No fast track.

No war - Saddam knows that US can take him out, at any time.
He will bluff to the max, but could not, ( would not ) , take a second defeat.
To loose face twice in a row, leaves no room for a third.

Korean Won under serious attack,
Japanese Yen to follow soon.
East Europe soon to follow?
Russia, Czech and Greece, all going against the European grain tonight.

Many financial banks/institutions/trading-houses, positions,
Are already seriously weakened,
Due to currency fluctuations,
Debts being over leaveraged,
Their investment strategies,
Being too short term, for the greatest returns,
Puts them, in an even greater risk aspect.

Market internals still weak,
Pointing to a continuation, of the downtrend, recently established.
Smart money still selling, overpriced assets.
Many indicators flashing extreme warning signals.
All indicators point to lower prices ahead.

For the market to sell off, thru the 7600 level,
And then fall thru 7575,
To attack 7500.
Will establish serious selling again.

A break below 7500,
Will start to spread fear, into many investors hearts,
Leading to a serious correction.

Signs of capitulation, of selling,
Starting to show in the gold sector.
Many signs of divergence, and accumulation apparent.
Still believe that gold stocks will be hurt hard,
In an share market crash.

Still waiting patiently,
Short stocks - long gold.

Not waiting to smell the daisies yet. ( :o}}}}}

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:09 - ID#243180)
MIDAS: Why do U want gold to stay $2-3 above - stay - and continue the trend. My strategy is to keep low - go lower - accumulate - sit back and say I told you so. If I were wealthy and had accululated thousands of ounces I may agree - however - I have owed gold/silver for many years, I am still buying, and I hope to keep buying daily/weekly/monthly as discretionary funds continue to roll in.

I had a discussion with 2 guys regarding their 401 ( k ) investments. One ( within 5-7 years of retirement ) wanted the stock market to keep running with stock splits, etc. The other ( much younger ) wanted the market to stay low so that he may acquire low prices for 10 years. Then he wished to market to ascend. My strategy for gold applies to the younger person since another 10 years under my belt acquiring gold/silver/platinum not only allows for my own comfort BUT ALSO for those of my descendants, children, gradchildren, etc.

Any thoughts ...

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:13 - ID#243180)
I failed to point out a key component of my reasoning. The gold run will not happen in small increments ( $2-3 ) - I will happen overnight ( relatively, when viewing it in hindsight ) .

Tsung Ming Houtzu
(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:13 - ID#37297)
...just a snowball beginning to roll from top
JIN: Many thanks for keeping us updated on breaking banking news from the Far-East. The run on the International Bank of Asia in HOng Kong TODAY may just be the 'snowball' beginning to roll downhill from the mountain top... avalanche looming on the horizon of the Land of the Rising Sun?? Please recall Japan is by far the largest lender to the Hong Kong banking community. If anything will precipitate the feared financial domino action and its dire effects and implications for the financial house-of-cards, this will be it! It is indeed intersting and meaningful to contemplate what intelligent Hong Kongers will do with their paper money withdrawn from crumbling banks... Only the neighboring culture of India rivals Chinese historic affinity to gold.

Notice to Central Banks:

In view of the currency turmoil sweeping Asia and now spilling into parts of Europe ( Poland ) and South America ( Brazil ) , it MIGHT BE ADVISABLE to suggest that Central Banks allow the worried populace to convert their paper money to hard assets. Therefore, to anticipate the burgeoning demand for gold, it is advisable to move larege quatities of gold out of the few depositories of inaccessible Central Bank vaults to geographically diverse locations to facilitate distribution.

On the other hand if your country's currency needs support to avoid devaluation to protect your economy, then you are obligated to prohibit all gold sales from Central Bank coffers, thus allowing gold to rise in value per market dynamics. The obvious benefit will be to increase the amount of reserves backing your currency as your gold stash increases in relative value to the outstanding amount of your paper money.

Certainly a perplexing question for Central Bankers to decide. What should they do?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:16 - ID#57232)
@mysteries within mysteries
SDRer: You may be interested to know that Paul Krugman is in the "Group of 30". He was one of the editors that summarized that University of Warwick Economics Symposium in 1990. Going back to the gold standard ( secretly ) was the main topic -- but using all the new tools of electronic monetary exchange. One of the topics was how much gold each country would need to act as a buffer during currency fluctuations. Clearly more stable currencies would need proportionately less gold, but I don't have a clue how much that is. I would guess however, that Japan does not have enough, and Switzerland has more than enough.

Mighty Integral
(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:18 - ID#348351)
Stope 4
How badly are South African producers being hurt? Crud... how long can they keep mile deep mines open at $311/oz gold? Any word of mine closures?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:21 - ID#243180)
Has anyone seen the 31 Oct 1997 letter from Charles Schwab to investors ? I describes the problem on 27 October and their delay times. It goes on to put a "Total Customer Access Plan" in place. Schwab states:

" if you are inconvenienced and need to travel to our branc that day, your commission will be waived*".

The caveat then reads"

"During NYSE market hours, 9:30 a.m. - 4:00 p.m. EST, when a majority of Schwab customers experience longer than five minutes Schwab system wait times. Schwab reserves the right to end this offer at any time without prior notice. Schwab or an affiliate may trade as a principal".

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:25 - ID#288157)

That is very helpful. I've spent a great deal of time waffling about in which column G30 should properly be placed. Your info is a particularly choice ( if you'll forgive me ) nugget.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:30 - ID#333131)
Jin, I apologize for misspelling your handle. Sorry. Carl

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:32 - ID#263259)
Karlito: You are right! Since gold is useless, kindly rip out the gold covered CPU from your 'puter and send it to me. You shouldn't degrade yourself by having it around.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:37 - ID#57232)
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Appreciate your 11:04 post. Did you see Jin's post on the run on a Hong Kong bank? It has started. I differ with you somewhat on whether AG raises rates. If he does so it will not be to protect the economy -- it will be to protect the dollar. If the dollar remains stable and the market is weak, he might actually lower rates. But he is well aware of the potential stock market bubble that might occur as a result.
I also am somewhat more concerned about Saddam Hussein. Even if he knows he will lose, he might do something foolish so that he might go down in history as a "martyr". If he does nothing he will see the "blockade" to the end of his days -- which might be violent anyway.
Will the market be going up a bit before the next drop? Today only? Will scared money enter the US market for a time? How much negative effect will the sale of those Japanese treasuries have?
I too am short stocks, but not good at options so most of my money is on the sidelines, waiting. Gold stocks will fall rapidly for a time if the market crashes, but will be the first to rise Phoenix-like out of the ashes.
If you don't take time out to smell the daisies soon -- you may have little time for this -- very soon! After the big one -- we all will have time to smell the flowers - though they might need a little time to grow back.
Good luck -- we need to calibrate our sights after the second ping -- the third one might be the big one.
"Steady as she goes Gridley", or something to that effect!! Thanks again for the poem last night - if that was from your Dad -- please thank him for me -- he's quite a guy -- really on the ball, too!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:42 - ID#263259)
WetGold re 11:00 post. It gets worse. Blanchard shipped my September gold Eagle order, but in the stack was one which had been DROPPED ( !!! ) Luckily, I had a proper sized bezel, so I hammered out the ding in the rim and made up a pendent for the ole' lady. She's happy, Blanchard is happy and I'm happy as long as I don't think about it too hard.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:42 - ID#426220)
RISING OIL PRICES TO YEAR 2000 - Is $40-$50 Crude Possible?
Per recognized international oil expert, rapidly rising capacity utilization will reach critical levels next year - forcing crude oil prices upwards. Further price impetus will be generated by increasing political and civil strife in Saudi Arabia, consequently putting in jeopardy the worlds largest supplier of Black Gold. Needless to say gold will rise in concert. Renown US investment analyst, Stephen Leeb, concurs both crude oil and gold are overdue for bull markets:

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:43 - ID#386276)
OZ SPI Commentary is basis the December 97 contract.

I continue to favour that Friday's 2603 high saw the completion of a five
wave advance from the 2210 recent low, with the market now in the process of tracing out a correction to this advance.
I therefore see today's gains as a minor rally within a declining sequence.
This remains the case provide little or no work occurs above today's 2557 high.
The above interpretation calls for the market to retrace between one
third and two thirds of the advance projecting 2469 as the minimum target, with the risk of weakness to the 2340 level.
A break of 2508 would provide a degree of bearish confirmation.
On the other hand a clear break of 2557 would question the above interpretation, warning of further gains through Friday's 2603 high.
On a larger scale this assessment is based on an Elliott Wave interpretation that labels the 2827-2210 decline as an A wave, and the price action from the 2210 low as a B wave.
The B wave is still unfolding, with the current downleg the second leg.

Dave in CO
(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:53 - ID#215211)
Hats off to Spud Master, Puetz, Panda, and all the others who exposed LGB for what he is. He is paid to distract and discourage any of the brainwashed masses who might wander in. Why else would he waste so much of his valuable time here?

As pointed out, his goodbye document, which rambled on for many pages,
was posted in 16 minutes. Impossible.

Seems he must be paid by the same entity ( mutual funds? ) who are paying the parrots on CNBC.

LGB: If the mutual fund investors get only a 12-15% return, they are going to be hopping mad. They are expecting 34% for the next 10 years.

Panhandle Pete
(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:59 - ID#22564)
Dr Vronsky: SADSACK HUSSEIN'S shenanigans will cause oil to soar to 40-50 bucks long before the year 2000. if memory serves crude oil zoomed to about 42 bucks a barrel during Desertt Storm. in view of SADSACK HUSSEIN'S TOtal lack of ethics, and exaggerated egotism he is most likely very long crude oil futures thru some Swiss Banks. Why not, everything else dirty is hidden there

(Mon Nov 10 1997 11:59 - ID#340459)
@What does this mean to us
G-10 Sees Benefits From Asian Stock Turmoil
The Group of 10 central bank governors see recent Asian stock market losses bringing more benefits than disadvantages
to world economies, Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer said. ``Until now, this development is more beneficial than
potential for concern,'' said Tietmeyer, speaking for the G-10 after their monthly meeting. ``Now there is more solid
ground on financial markets and we hope that the worst is over.'' Governors of the Group of 10 central banks meet once
a month at the Bank for International Settlements, in Basel, to discuss the global economy and monetary policy. They
represent the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, the U.K., Italy, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden. The central
bank governor of host country Switzerland also takes part.

Panhandle Pete
(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:01 - ID#22564)
Dr Vronsky: SADSACK HUSSEIN'S shenanigans will cause oil to soar to 40-50 bucks long before the year 2000. if memory serves crude oil zoomed to about 42 bucks a barrel during Desertt Storm. in view of SADSACK HUSSEIN'S TOtal lack of ethics, and exaggerated egotism he is most likely very long crude oil futures thru some Swiss Banks. Why not, everything else dirty is hidden there

(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:01 - ID#243180)
Dave in CO: Why would Lerking-Gold-Bug ( LGB ) give a long fairwell if he didn't passionate care what he professed ? I suspect he was not a paid informant RATHER one who had an alternative view ... a view which most felt hostile on this forum ...

Del Harris
(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:04 - ID#27123)
Nick Van Gundy
Let's review. We are 4-0 and you are...3-3. And gold is 3-1-1.

You will end up just like g-o-l-d and we will end up like D-O-W.

What a beautiful day in the neighborhood.

Patrick suks.............and so does Spike and that hack Starks.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:05 - ID#263259)
@re retail markup
On my recent "fact finding mission" through the retirement bubble zone of the blue ridge mountains I found that gold eagles are HEAVILY marked up for the retail trade. Like in the range of $60US for 1/10, $160US for 1/4, $280US for 1/2 and $420US for 1 OZ coins. I guess this goes along with $30,000+ for nearly vertical building sites, $395,000 for midsized homes and $1,100,000 for mini farm sized valley lots.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:06 - ID#32051)
savings rate
Some posters have maintained that the US stock market will not crash and will continue climb due to 401K/IRA savings. If this is true, then why has the Nikkei fallen over 40% despite the fact the Japanese have been much more oriented to saving/investing than US citizens? I recently read that the US had one of the lowest savings' rate. What am I missing?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:06 - ID#31868)
So I guess that since some arrogant G10 bookie says the asian "thing" will be a positive, all those asians that got hammered will smile now and say they were glad to help.

What a bastard.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:07 - ID#28098)
To: JTF@Reality.Central
Re: The Moral Standard, aka The Gold Standard

Ive obviously got a lot more work to do on this, but I did want to share with you the following blurb from a book that is a little economic bible for me personally.
The quote is from a different place, different time...but it is impossible not to feel its immediacy, it reverberates for us, here, now.

"In the Depression the world broke up into blocs, and each bloc tried to gain an advantage by depreciating its currency so that it could increase its exports and put its people back to work. That game is called beggar-thy-neighbor, and it was a disaster."


(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:09 - ID#28098)

Re: CBs blurb

What I think it means is that CBs have learned the art of PR.


(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:11 - ID#348169)
I guess I'm not really as happy as I thought I was! :- (
"It isn't necessary to be rich and famous to be happy.
It's only necessary to be rich." --- Alan Alda

(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:12 - ID#38451)
Read in Barron's Market Watch Re: R.Prechter and this morning on Avid that gold is poised for a near term rally. Any comments ?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:15 - ID#215208)
It's a hard ..
223 - You should be buying platinum Eagles. They don't ding when dropped.

WetGold - This forum is very open to, even welcomes, alternative viewpoints when presented in a respectful, civil manner. We have seen many examples of this.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:16 - ID#371247)
I think that we are in a short-term rally to $313 per ounce. What an incredibly sick market we find ourselves in. If you want to hear someone talk about great moves in gold and silve near term call a representative of Monex. I talked to one last Wednesday and he made night look like day. A true miracle of Biblical proportions. I'm getting more and more morbid about the metals which should mean that they are about ready to move in just the opposite direction of my emotions which they normally do.

Spud Master
(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:17 - ID#273112)
to WetGold
WetGold: lUrking gold bug has never left us. he is back right on as 'Karlito'. There are multiple clues as to why he is a disinformation agent here - but I will only mention the most gross & obvious: his constant use of perjorative lables "racist", "anti-semite" and as Karlito today, "anti-catholic". The Politicaly Correct thug-lords ***ALWAYS*** accuse someone of being one of those in order to shut-up discussion and scare off the wavering. I can't think of one of us here who does not welcome spirited debate & argument based on FACT. Instead we get the likes of LGB/Karlito poisoning the well with racist comment. It's an old, old trick.

Dave in CO
(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:18 - ID#215211)

I agree his goodbye sounded passionate, but if it was genuine why was it pre-prepared and why is he back under another name? Seems to me the questions ( from Puetz, etc. ) were too tough for him and his CNBC rhetoric. Thanks.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:26 - ID#263259)
@Bin dere. Dun dat.
DJ re 12:15 post: Your comment brings to mind the question whether the traditional Pt/Au price ratios are still valid or have suddenly changed due to industrial use factors. Used to be that a good Pt/Au price ratio was less than 1.1. But things have changed in a big way the last couple of years.

George Cole
(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:28 - ID#42953)
deflation and the gold price
Support for my argument that the CBs probably do NOT want to see gold go much lower in the current deflationary environment.

Deflationary Developments
Gold Monitor, M. Murenbeeld and Associates - October 31, 1997

It is important to note that the Dow Jones is down only about 10% from
its peak of 8,259, which does not qualify as a "crash" under our
definition. More importantly, given Greenspans comments this week,
the Fed is not particularly concerned and certainly not ready to push
liquidity into the system. Indeed, Greenspan even implied the sell-off
was salutary in so far as it might take a little steam out of the economy.
Gold however needs an injection of liquidity if it is to rise sharply in
response to stock market developments; that is the lesson of previous

The fact is, as the readers of this report are undoubtedly aware ( and
Greenspan said as much ) , the developments in Asia are deflationary.
Some deflation will spread to North America. Bonds are therefore the
asset of choice. Deflation is not gold-friendly, nor friendly to most
commodities - hence the Canadian dollar was also somewhat rocky this
last week.

But deflation typically begets reflation. It took some four and a half
years after the crash of 1929, however, before Roosevelt revalued gold
and opened the way to monetary stimulus. It took only a matter of
hours after the crash of 1987. Gold rose some 10% in the wake of the
87 crash, until the authorities returned to more neutral, and eventually
more restrictive, monetary policies. The developments of recent days
carry the seeds of much higher gold prices in other words, but the stock
market sell-off has to be much more extreme. With the monetary
authorities sitting on their hands, "excess" liquidity in the G-7 will
remain at a 27-year low.

Well see. Note: the Wall Street Journal suggested on Oct. 28 that
Greenspan, "given his periodic wistful references to the old gold
standard, might say as one good measure of world liquidity that he will
not let the dollar price of gold fall below $300." Clearly the editors,
too, are concerned about the lack of liquidity in the international
economy - as implied by the low gold price. The world is closer to
deflation than at any other time I can remember!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:33 - ID#386276)
Going south steady, steady
Patience, I don't have enough but still learning.

Todays market internals adv/dec show weak capitulation.
The ratios are increasing to the favour of the sellers,
The sellers are selling,
I expect a selloff to ensue.

I need only walk out my door to smell the daisies.
I have a georgeous rock swimming pool, amid tropical forest splendor,
15ft from my computer, which lives on a verandah.
Used frequently by myself and the many children, that tend to congregate on the back verandah.

I always wanted to go fishing from my back verandah.
A far better way of life with ones friends and family.

Crystal Ball
(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:43 - ID#287367)
What's wrong with this picture?
Gold up 90 cents

(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:52 - ID#57232)
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Got a few moments at work to corespond. Your house sounds idyllic. I can hike sail or swim -- even trout year round where I am in mid-america. But - you are closer to it all than I am! I am too busy to smell the flowers most of the time - except weekends. Two college - age kinds -- each 20 k per year US. That says it all, I think.
Bought one nearly in the money SPX put with my "funny money". Have most of my funny money in cheap SPX out-of the money DEC 98 puts. Do have some ABX and GLG calls. I still don't think this is the big one, but we do know Hong Kong and US are linked somehow -- if this is a true run on HK banks -- we will at least have another ping!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:53 - ID#401460)
Markets Look Weak
Low Volume - Market may head South shortly. Only up +3

A fool and his money
(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:56 - ID#255155)
will soon part
Dave in CO, the bug didn't leave. He just completed the scout mission. He
is still on Kitco getting ready to set the bait. Within a few weeks Kitco
will undergo a large organized promotion for something. Probably a stock,
but it could be anything. The bug is one of the players, he won't get paid
until the the promotion is over. Then he'll leave. Check out how
it's done on Silicon Investor. Go back into the archives and read about
any stock that doesn't trade anymore ( Bre-X ) . The players are getting
bolder to bring the game to Kitco. Don't be surprised if he uses a
real email or a hotmail account when the promotion starts. Everyone
will be contacted.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 12:57 - ID#335190)
Did You Know @ Bank Reform "Financial Modernization" (Glass-Steagall 1933)
November 10, 1997
Congress fails on bank reform, will try in 1998

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - House legislators working on proposals to overhaul U.S. banking laws failed to reach consensus over the weekend on a handful of issues and called off their efforts until next year. "Due to an already crowded legislative schedule and technical intricacies involved in structuring such a package, it is apparent that the full House will not be able to vote on this legislation this year," John Boehner, chairman of the Republican conference, said in a statement.

"We remain committed to completing our work and putting this legislation on the House floor early next year," the Ohio Republican said.

Lawmakers had hoped to reconcile a version of bank reform passed in June by the House Banking Committee with a similiar package approved by the Commerce Committee last month. Both bills would have torn down the legal barriers separating banking from other financial services contained in the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act and other laws.

But the proposals had substantial differences that could not be negotiated away. Staffers said remaining differences over regulation of bank sales of securities and insurances, as well as limits on bank operating subsidies, ultimately sank the negotiations.

Banking Committee Chairman Jim Leach, Republican of Iowa, said work on the bills would continue during the long congressional recess.
"Despite the philosophical and jurisdictional differences between the Banking and Commerce Committees, substantial progress has been made in the past two weeks," Leach said in a statement. "Financial modernization will be among the first major issues taken up by the House next year."

While most insurance companies and securities firms were pressing Congress to vote on bank reform as soon as possible, much of the banking industry was content with the status quo.

Over the past few years, federal bank regulators and courts have used loopholes in current laws to give banks greater leeway to expand their insurance and securities activities.

After a decision by the Federal Reserve to more than double the amount of revenue banks could earn from securities activity took effect in March, banks began an acquisition spree to buy securities firms.

Securities firms and insurance companies remain largely barred from buying banks, although they are permitted to own a single savings and loan.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:01 - ID#320441)
@The Sword of Damocles
The effect of the possibility of CB sales on the price of gold.

It reminds me of the guy with one bullet holding off three attackers: He can keep them at bay indefinitely as long as he keeps that bullet in his gun. But once that bullet is gone... he's going to have more guys to contend with than he can handle. ( Actually, he can even lease out the bullet as long as he reserves the right of immediate recall. ) Firing the bullet is suicide.

OK, what if there were ten separate guys, each holding off at least three attackers, and nine of these ten were leasing the only real bullet, the one held by the tenth guy?

Remember the movie Beau Geste, in which the commander props up his slain defenders in the windows of the besieged fort, until the raid is finally repelled by a hundred or so dead men and one or two living?

So - I really do not have a grasp of the size of the CB holdings relative to the pent-up investor demand that is kept at bay by the possibility of CB sales. I do know this - there are people out there who want to invest in something of proven and enduring value,, if they could find it.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:04 - ID#340459)
@Copa Cabana
tolerant1; I have synonymous sentiment with your 12:06 post

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:04 - ID#333131)
SDRer, Re Lord Richardson of Duntisbourne, Aside from being a member of the House of Lords and a former Governor of The Bank of England, it appears that he is Chairman of Morgan Stanley International and is on their advisory committee.. See

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:04 - ID#335190)
Stillwater @ Platinum & Palladium
November 10, 1997
Stillwater weighs big platinum output rise

DENVER ( Reuters ) - Stillwater Mining Co., the nation's only producer of platinum and palladium, said Monday it plans to boost its annual platinum and palladium production to 1.3 million ounces by the year 2003.

The company, which is the only major primary source of platinum group metals outside of South Africa, said it expects to produce 350,000 to 400,000 ounces of the precious metals this year, up from 1996's output of 255,000 ounces. By 1998, it sees production rising to between 450,000 and 500,000 ounces.

Stillwater said its cost of producing platinum and palladium next year will be in the range of $140 to $160 per ounce. On Monday, platinum traded at $390 an ounce and palladium was at $206 per ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:16 - ID#215208)
223 - Of all the things going on lately, the weakness in platinum is the one that has surprised me the most. For those who are afraid of the propaganda that gold will never again be a "store of value", platinum is a good alternative, with the solid industrial demand, and no above ground stock. Even a little "scared" money would have a major effect on platinum, but no sign of it. Curious!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:16 - ID#340459)
Interesting read enclosed..
Gold Mining Outlook
by Steven Jon Kaplan

Ironically, just as the demand for the yellow metal is exceeding its annual mining supply by a greater amount each year,
most analysts and investors have concluded that it is time to bail out or even sell short. The result will be an increasingly
larger gap as low gold prices curtail mining exploration and development while jewelry and industrial usage continues to
increase. Even well-established companies such as Echo Bay Mines are discovering that a substantial percentage of their
reserves are not profitable to mine at current prices, thus leading to even lower production especially in the early years of
the next decade. As with all commodities, eventually a huge gap will trigger a huge rally. Commercial accumulation
remains strong as those connected with the industry realize that current low prices will not be around for long.

Updated @ 9:00 a.m. EDT, Monday, November 10, 1997.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: After a lower start on Friday, commodities rallied to post a net gain, with the CRB
holding important support just above the 240 level, while precious metals regained more than half of their early
steep losses as weakness in stocks and bonds eventually translated to tentative buying of gold and silver as a
hedge. Gold ended the day down two dollars, silver dropped 4.7 cents, platinum fell six dollars, and palladium
lost forty-five cents. The early morning collapse wiped out the small number of remaining speculative long
positions which also paved the way for the afternoon's partial recovery. With U.S. unemployment at its lowest
rate since 1973, and average hourly earnings increasing 0.5% last month and 4.2% over the past year, the
highest such increase since 1989, inflationary pressures are finally beginning to make themselves noticeable
after having spent virtually all of the 1990s on an extended vacation. Since most investors have been taught like
Pavlov's dogs by their mutual fund holding companies to "buy the dips", a sharp rally in alternative investments
such as gold mining shares will not occur until the stock market's rallies fail to carry it to new highs, followed by
additional declines that are also succeeded by failed rallies ( i.e., a repeat of the 1966-1982 scenario ) .

Canadian-listed First Dynasty's president Marcus Randolph announced that the startup of its Dublin Gulch mine
in Canada will be delayed until gold prices pick up and production can be hedged.

On the New York Stock Exchange there were 32 new highs and 60 new lows, with 533 stocks advancing and
2396 stocks declining. The index put-call ratio was a moderately pessimistic 1.54, while the equity put-call ratio
was a strongly pessimistic 0.59.

Friday's COMEX gold estimated volume was a moderate 50,000 lots. Total COMEX gold open interest on
Thursday rose 1,834 to 218,698 contracts, continuing a general trend of strong commercial accumulation
coupled with equally heavy speculator short selling. COMEX gold warehouse stocks dropped 22,994 ounces to
571,859 ounces, a new 17-year low, while COMEX silver warehouse stocks hit a new 12-year low by plunging
1,891,676 ounces to 129,785,274 ounces. The Johannesburg gold index closed Friday morning at 861.5, down
16.1, with the U.S. dollar quoted at 4.8385 rand.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:17 - ID#347457)
@Investment environment in the US is not good for gold!!
Folks, there was a lot of talk about how much can 401K, IRA keep stocks in the US afloat. However, I am worried about the other side of it. In the US with its extremely low rate of saving, 401K and IRA are the primary investment vehicles for ordinary folks. These funds bring a tremendous money into market, however, they are not set up for investing in gold or PM in general. You can not buy any gold through 401K which represent a majority of retirement money. IRA was recently open for coins but thats about it. You can ( in some cases, not every 401K has that option ) put money into PM stocks. However, as we all experience, this market is extremely speculative, requires good timing strategy, something what most average investors cant manage and therefore wont do until the firm trend is established. For this reason, I dont see any hope that any significant part of that money can help gold and support gold rallies. When the trend is established, and PM stocks go up for a longer period of time ( if that ever happens ) you may see some retirement money turn into PM funds.

This system is set up against gold and that does not make me feel good. So, all talking about go buy bullion is not applicable to majority of average investors ( who feed most of the money into market ) . Not encouraging!!

Oracle Master
(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:19 - ID#232387)
Weak Eurodollar Prices
The eurodollar market has been showing some weakness over the past few days. Can this be considered early indicator of weakness to come to the T-bond market?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:21 - ID#340459)
Sicko's are not letting it go up beyond 311, But for How Long

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:22 - ID#215208)
More SWC?
6pak - First the WSJ article on SWC and now a press release. Interesting.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:23 - ID#31868)
Miro: I have a different slant. Let's say everything is slanted against gold. Gold starts to rise, I mean rise alot. What do you think all those people are going to start screaming.

FOUL! How can the government and the IRS be against me gaining as much for my retirement as possible.

Eventually people are going to wake up and figure out only the government makes money while they take the risk and put in all the elbow grease.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:23 - ID#78116)
I'm not lgb, sorry to disappoint. But I'm not an agent provocteur for anyone. Its hilarious that some of you are so certain of finding a conspiracy under every bed. I'm just an individual investor who stumbled on this site a month or so ago, lurked for awhile trying to decide if there was anything of interest here and trying to decide if gold might be a good short term investment now.

You all have convinced me that gold is a loser investment for losers, has been for a long time. Like LGB.... I am outa here.... Bye

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:24 - ID#386276)
Spud Master
His verb and vernacular is one and the same.
He can't hide it at all, not even in his first few retries.
He probably feels quite frustrated, I'd guess.

George Cole
That article you posted, has very good analysis.
Where did it come from.
I think that gold is being perceived as cheap at these levels.
Hence the change in sentiment recently.
Good signs of accumulation in physical, stocks and by the major producers.

A friend of mine who has only ever purchased three lots of shares.
The other day asked me where she could buy physical.
She wants to buy 10k worth.
To her, a large amount.
When I asked her why, she replied
"Because it is so cheap that it looks a good investment."
She is not worried at all about our changing world.
She just feels that it is a buy.
When many more feel the same way as her, watch out.

FTSE the key to watch. I think?
England being old money as such.
When they start their next leg down watch out.
That previous commentary I posted was not mine,
But very astute, and falling into line. i.e. going lower.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:25 - ID#261229)
Lighten up guys, forget about gold for six months and give stocks a chance. Go long, join the party. Need some tips? 3COM, DELL, IBM KO, GE P&G MO. Its not too late, we`re going much higher. Come on. Sell the gold. Make 20% and if youre not happy buy back gold at 250.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:25 - ID#25058)

DJ now negative...-0.02%. This might be the trend for the weeks to come. A controlled slide.

Steve Martin
(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:27 - ID#239349)
@ Saturday Night Live
More Leeches Broom Gilda!! More Leeches!! ( Karlito is not lgb )

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:29 - ID#31868)
I just purchased some more phys from one of my sources and the fella I deal with says that calls have picked up a great deal from new customers asking what they can purchase for $1000 to $100,000 if I spread it through numis and bullion.

As far as the hi-tech sector goes, I have felt for a while now and feel stronger then many that tech is going to get clanked big time. When it hits the way I envision it will decimate this market overall.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:29 - ID#194311)
kitco lingo
Asian money woes threaten "tidal wave" of bailout demands: senator
WASHINGTON, Nov 8 ( AFP ) - Economic trouble in Asia could unleash
a "tidal wave" of bailout demands which Washington should reject, a
senior US senator said Saturday as he urged officials to deny
Indonesia a loan.
A week after the US administration said it would give Indonesia
up to three billion dollars in aid to help shore up its economy,
hard hit by a currency crisis, Lauch Faircloth, chairman of a Senate
banking subcommittee on financial institutions, introduced a bill to
stop the loan.
Indonesia had requested a total of 23 billion dollars from a
variety of sources.
The bill would ban officials from using the US Exchange
Stabilization Fund from providing more than 250 million dollars to
foreign countries without congressional approval.
"The fund was not designed to be the personal 'piggy bank' of
the secretary of the treasury to bail out other countries whenever
he desires," said Faircloth, a North Carolina Republican.
The fund was established in the 1930s to support the dollar.
"We are seeing a tidal wave of bailouts coming our way from
Asia," he warned, adding demand was overwhelming the resources of
the International Monetary Fund.
"The tidal wave has already started. The Philippines in July for
one billion dollars. Thailand for 16 billion dollars in September.
Now comes Indonesia for 23 billion dollars in November. The price
tag keeps getting bigger and we don't know where it is going to
stop," he said.
"I think President ( Bill ) Clinton and ( Treasury Secretary )
Robert Rubin need to realize that Wall Street and Indonesia did not
elect them -- the people of the US did," he added.
Announcing the loan, Rubin had said it would be available "for a
temporary period, if necessary, to supplement the resources made
available by the IMF and Indonesia's own reserves."

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:29 - ID#340459)
The substantial customers for Gold are outside USA. they are being lured into T-Bill Ponzi

The Inmates are running the asylum
(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:32 - ID#323379)
Karlito you got it right with your imression of Kitco
They'll run anyone off who has the slightest
tiniest amount of intellect. Many of the best
have disappeared and rightly so. It's obvious
you're not lgb, but the neurologically deficient
sleuths here love poverty and conspiracy.

Yes, visiting here was visitation of a Looneybin.
You're quite right to hit and run, the inmates run
the asylum here. The poor get poorer and the rich
laught at Kitcoites.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:34 - ID#176235)

I'm new to this site. Question if gold is so bad why isn't everyone turning to Silver as a back up?

ps I bought ten Gold this am I like it.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:35 - ID#347457)
Tolerant1: I hope it'll change ( just like they opened IRA for coins ) , however this will be a long process so it can't help gold at this time. Even when it happens, it would require to take a lot off the speculative nature in PM markets for Joe on the street to trust it ( just like it took about 10 years of growing stock market that people accepted it as their primary retirement investment vehicle ) .

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:35 - ID#194311)
lil' Ebner wants the golden boys
Swiss raider hails the Novartis model for big banks
GENEVA, Nov 8 ( AFP ) - Swiss corporate raider Martin Ebner urged
the country's biggest banks to follow the lead of giant
pharmaceutial firm Novartis and concentrate on a core business, the
Journal de Geneve reported Saturday.
Ebner told the French-language newspaper in an interview that
top Swiss banks should take a leaf out of Novartis' book by, for
example, focusing on fund management and spinning off their
commercial and retail banking activities.
Novartis, created out of the 1996 merger between Ceiba-Geigy and
Sandoz, shed the group's chemical activities to concentate on
pharmaceuticals and health-care products.
"In eighteen months, two old entities have disappeared to give
birth" to a highly profitable firm, he said. "The banks should take
inspiration from that."
Ebner's BZ group holds more than a 20 percent stake in
Switzerland's largest bank, Union Bank of Switzerland.
Rumours have circulated for months that he is planning to pounce
on the bank, whose management he has often criticized, in a link-up
with Credit Suisse and Suisse de Reassurances. These would-be
partners together are said to control more than 40 of UBS voting
"Everything is imagineable," the self-styled raider said in
response to a question as to whether he was planning a bid with
Credit Suisse for UBS.
"I cannot speak concretely about such projects. It is clear that
a solution must be found. A union between two big Swiss banks could
also involve other partners," Ebner told the newspaper.
UBS, Credit Suisse and Swiss Bank Corporation have been under
fire for months by international Jewish groups and certain US
policitians for hobbling efforts by Holocaust survivors or heirs of
those who perished in Nazi death camps to get back war-time
The State of California has penalized the banks by withdrawing
two billion dollars worth of deposits and securities while
Massachussets and New York state have individually penalized UBS.
The bank has allegedly been on a share buy-back spree.
"If the bank is buying back its own shares, I think it is doing
so to push up its share price to make a takeover bid more
difficult," Ebner said.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:36 - ID#348169)
HA-HA-HA 'LARIOUS. You've now 'left' twice is less than 24 hours. Why not go for a dozen and make sure you maintain an unbeatable record?
BTW - Any half-intelligent entity who lurked here and read even half of the analytical posts presented here ( leaving aside the pure banter ) would quickly realise that gold is worth at least a portion of your investment funds if only as an insurance policy.

silent observer...
(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:38 - ID#273310)
of Inmates running etc&
the rich don't seem to be getting any richer in the stock market today, do they? &btw, i have not noticed anyone being "run off" from the Kitco board who wouldn't be bounced from the average bar for their foul mouths, low breeding & jerky behavior.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:39 - ID#57232)
SDRer: Your 12:07. Competitive devaluations in the 30's. Didn't know this, but it makes sense, doesn't it? If one country gets a trading advantage by devaluing their currency, this will tempt others to do the same.
It is clear that this is happening right now -- China was smart enought to do this first -- says something, doesn't it? What if they did this one more time? Would not hurt China all that much since everyone is now trying to be first in line to trade with one of the potentially largest markets in the world. They also have less to lose than the SE Asia countries.
We may have a domino effect, with the Dollar being one of the last holdouts, and as someone said, the dollar will then only be able to devalue against gold. Isn't it ironic that devaluations are implicit acknowledgements of the failure of paper money, but noone is yet ready to admit that there might be another currency that does not need to be devalued, namely gold. What will the Swiss do with the Swiss Frank, if everyone else devalues?

Karlito's way
(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:41 - ID#224232)
@ Al pacino
lgb was right Nick, Spud, Tolerant, Dips***, and the rest.
You are a buncha idiots! It doesn't take a genious to see
the differences twixt lgb and Karlito, love im or hate im.
Some Sherlock's you'd be.

What this place needs is registration picture ID so you
could all be embarrassed by your silly detective work.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:41 - ID#246224)
The statement of intent for the SDR is to 'stablize international commerce'. The interests of international business are not served by currency instabilities. So, as international trade grew, the 'need' for a safe and stable currency was actualized. I note that 1SDR = 1.45623USD now per your posted URL. So we are looking at a 45.6% depreciation in the USD in the 6 year period between 1991 and 1997 ( against the SDR ) . Since the SDR is truly independent of any national government, only governed by the executive board, then there are no necessary commitments to it value other than that it be stable in relation to international commercial interessts. Some one recently expressed ( not here ) that there are 4 sectors which strive with each other: religion, politics, military and financial. In the case of an attempted world wide currency there will probably be a conflagration between the financial and political sectors on a world wide basis since this impinges on sovereignty.

Also, one way of determining the agenda of the 30 would be to look at their individual public expressions and interactions. Looking for the commonality in language, etc. Certainly you can't do this alone. Possibly a few of us caould volunteer to form a working group on this and divy up names, etc.
Off to buy some SDRs since they seem to hold up well against the dollar.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:43 - ID#176235)
commercials are buying Gold. Specs are selling. Who has to be right in the long run? I say the commercials. They don't usually buy with the intent of loosing capital. Do they?

Gold should be purchased as Insurance
(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:45 - ID#383217)
Mooney is the primary inmate and you all report to him
Yes Gold should be purchased as an insurance policy right away.
Ues at least half your investment funds. While you're at it, change
your homeowners insurance policy so that your premium costs you at
least half the price of the house. That's wisdom and security.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:46 - ID#348169)
Hepcat - Thank's for your post at 13:32 - Now why don't you do EVERYBODY a BIG favour and take your own advice, namely, "You're quite right to hit and run...". Heh Hepcat, Follow LGB, run away, but DON'T come back.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:46 - ID#340459)
Allen, I am in on your proposal to track comments from 30

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:46 - ID#386276)
Up/down volume ratios:
NYSE __ 3.5__1.7__1.85__1.66__1.42__1.19__0.99__
AMEX __4.8__1.26__1.32__1.08__0.54__0.52__0.56__
Figures show accelerating selling volumes

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:47 - ID#31868)
Miro: Paper is already iffy in alot of people's minds. And, according to common sentiment, everything is great. But should a little chink in the laughable armor of paper become crystal clear, the metals will go nuts as people seek cover in the only store of value.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:49 - ID#348169)
Thanks for your 13:45 also Hepcat! Why is it you can't at least stick to one handle. Is it because you love to try and confuse everybody?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:50 - ID#25794)
some jerk's you'd be
KARLITO some bunch of idiots huh! don't know what an apostrophe is for

Some Sherlock's you'd be.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:51 - ID#198137)
Silver and Gold
Its a great combination. Evaluate your own cash needs and pay off those debts if you have them. Jobs may become unstable later on. Would hate to have to sell Au/Ag to pay something off or to live.

Spud Master
(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:51 - ID#273112)
waiting for the FIFTH coming of LGB
sigh ... tedious: LGB, nee Karlito nee Karlito's Whey ... nee ( fill in the blank ) . The stock market has begun its long, decline and unraveling. The true believers of the last decade are being slowly looted, suckered in for dips. I pity them. Their world will crumble. Me, I have nice solid uncrumbling gold. It has never lost value, and never will. "Honest" money, unable to be forged by bankers & ilk greedy for control of our lives. How they hate this "barbarous" relic. How they fear it. Here, have our make-belive "money" which we alone control, which we alone can create in endless amounts to sway the world to our will. When the smoke clears & the mirrors shatter, there will be the haves ( those wise enough to perceive the fraud and protect their wealth in tangible assets ) and the have nots ( the true believers, faithful to the end, fist fulls of worthless stock vertificates, dollar bills and Treasury notes ) .

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:52 - ID#243180)
I was always under the impression that SDK. ( speeling don't kount )

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:53 - ID#194311)
DOW elevator
Going DOWN anyone? It'll cost you though.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:57 - ID#347457)
tolerant1: I agree that people start questioning paper. however if at this point of time vehicle is not in place so that they can turn money in retirement funds to metal, they probably just move it into MM or bonds. I don't think that they'll start pulling money out, pay tax and 10% penalty so that they can buy metal. Even if it made financially sense, that tax/penalty shock will keep them from doing it.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:58 - ID#340459)
Dow, S&P, Nasdaq are all South, Barring some CPR in last minutes, Gold gonna pick up everuday this week, Ameen.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:59 - ID#386276)
You still can't stop from agreeing with youself.
Your anger grows, does it not?

You promised to change, you told us you'd change.
But you still wear your own colours.
Is this not true?

George Cole
(Mon Nov 10 1997 13:59 - ID#42953)
Gold Notes and Quotes
Nick ( Aussei ) That article was from the November "Gold Notes and Quotes" on the World Gold Council Web Site:

If even the Wall Street Journal is becoming concerned that gold has fallen too far, those waiting for $250 may not see it until the sun rises in the west.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:06 - ID#427357)
Currency Chaos & Stock Markets Plunging is Asia -

Massive currencies devaluations and stock market crashes! Absolute financial chaos reigns in South East Asia - This is spilling over into Japan, Australia, Europe and the US of A. Furthermore, Japanese Banks have accounted for 90% of foreign bank lending in Hong Kong. Not surprisingly in the morning of November 10th, there began a run on a Hong Kong bank. Savers fear for their hard-earned money as the banking system crumbles.

A Financial Tsunami is Looming in Land of SETTING Sun. What inevitably follows will be the total collapse of their banking system. Japan will indeed be forced to dump US T-Bonds in order to defend the home economy. Subsequently, they will buy gold as they fight for economic and financial survival - evaluate for yourself:

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:06 - ID#411149)

I am off to Texas A&M till Friday keep up the good work!


Tally Ho

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:09 - ID#390249)
Is Suharto defying the IMF?
Suharto reverses the cancellation of 15 infrastructure projects - some with very close family connections according to the attached article. I wonder what the IMF thinks of this?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:14 - ID#340459)
Interesting Read enclosed, Brothers...
Gold Loans Far Higher Than Previously

Weve just received new research from Frank
Veneroso indicating that central bank gold loans
are far larger than previously thought. His data
indicates that total outstanding gold loans are
over 6,500 tonnes, or more than two times the
current consensus. Moreover, from what Ive
seen of Franks research, his conclusions are
actually quite conservative.

But what does this mean? For one thing, it
means that there are huge short bets on gold,
the largest in history. This is important because
the central banks loaned the gold to bullion
dealers and banks, who then sold the gold to
hedge the producer forward sales they
arranged, or simply as a speculative short sale.
This huge supply of loaned gold must be paid
back at some time. If gold rallies significantly,
then the dealers -- as well as short selling
funds -- will be forced to buy back gold
hand-over-fist to cover their shorts,
accelerating the price rise.

But most importantly, the revelation of such
shockingly large outstanding gold loans shows
that there is enormous, untracked gold

Someone is buying all that gold, and its
obviously not coming from a single source.
Since most of the worlds gold demand is now
coming from the booming Asian markets, it is
likely that these high levels of gold offtake will
continue for some time after the accelerated
supplies now flooding the market eventually dry

If the sea of loaned and sold gold is the only
thing keeping the price down in the face of
historically unprecedented demand, then it
should also take an unprecedented gold price
to clear the market once the accelerated
supplies are withdrawn.

In fact, the flood of loaned gold may already be
receding. Gold lease rates ( interest rates
central bankers charge to loan their reserves )
recently doubled, with one-month rates soaring
to nearly 4 percent. Lower rates than this have
precipitated short-covering squeezes in recent
years. Moreover, lease rates have popped
higher at precisely the wrong time for bullion
dealers -- just as we are about enter the
season when rates rise anyway due to central
bank book-squaring near the end of the year.

This could be the trigger to another
short-covering squeeze in the gold market. And
if you want another one, look no further than the
stock market.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:15 - ID#215208)
I think I'm physic (ala Paul Neuman)
6pak - Just finished reading the full text of the press release. I see they did announce the resumption of work on the East Boulder project. I sounds like it will be awhile before the new mine is in production, but at least its moving again.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:17 - ID#28594)
In alpha order:

Allen: Yes! Do you have a particular thread that interests you?

Carl: Lord Duntisborne is one of a clutch of titles this entity sports. All I could discover is what you just discovered! The Knight of the Garter clue ( because it is soooo rarely bestowed--Phillip, Charles, Churchill--I believe--very, very top drawer ) .
The "interesting" members are those that don't seem to "fit" or that are unknown ( and maybe unknowable! ) : to whit, Carnegie--the only mining mangnate; Geoffrey Bell, who seems to be a Real Mystery person. I don't know that this is critical; I don't like loose ends.

JTF: Blast...I've now forgotten what you said and what I wanted to reply. Best to write these things off line! From prior posts I will remind that the Cardinal Challenge is: Don't Upset the People. I think the USD is the American Colonial facade behind which they will build their Pei millenium bank, all the while reinforcing the belief that Everything is Fine. All Money IS Belief!
Off to lunch. Take care. It would be nice if the three of you could have all these problems well in hand ( better yet, solved ) when I get back.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:17 - ID#340459)
Ray, Good Luck to you Brother and Thanks..

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:18 - ID#386276)
When a company like Normandy, ( who has just reported good profits ) .
Has sold gold forward at A$600.
Now would be a profitable time, to purchase physical to forfill it obligations.
OZ gold now at approx A$450, and becoming more expensive.
Also the gold still in the ground, can be held till a later date.

Many of the small producers, who cannot afford to produce at these low levels,
Make excellent takeover targets.

The cost of the gold in the ground of these small producers, has never been cheaper.
The market cap's of these companies have never been so cheap.

The major producers who are in profits, and can afford to accumulate,
Physical gold and smaller producing mining companies,
Will come out of this slump with the greatest profits.

Thanks George

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:21 - ID#267276)
year 2000
Senator Bennet of Utah, today introduced a senate bill called crash 97 which would force companies to give information to stockholders about their preparedness and liability etc. on the year 2000 problem. He said that yardini ( I think ) stated that the bill would run at least $600 billion and liabilities could be on trillion.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:21 - ID#36965)
Joke of the day
Due to a few light requests I post the joke of the day in an effort to prevent persons on this site from jumping out their basement windows into the thorny bushes outside.

A lady from Chicago was visiting New York City. Her hostess
was determined to make the Midwesterner feel cheap
and unimportant.

"My dear," said the New York matron snobbishly, "here in the
East we think breeding is everything."

"Oh, I don't know," the lady from the Midwest replied. "Out
where I come from we think it's fun, too, but we try to have
a few outside interests as well."

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:26 - ID#28594)
Went back to reread your post ( which are worth reading twice ) ; JTF, you would be amazed at how little time I spend worrying about the Swiss!
1000 years of commerce in three languages, all of which appreciate the honesty of gold leads me to believe the Swiss will find a way!

Allen: My conversion figures were/are off because I just grabbed what I could from any source that seemed modestly reliable. These were garnered during the intellectural puzzle phase. But I think it IS wise to re-value assets to this new key currency standard. And boy does gold look CHEAP.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:33 - ID#246224)
Is this a crazy market or what?
Think about this for a minute. Gold and silver are bobbling along a bottom after a 12 year fall. A significant number of mines are on the edge of unprofitable production. The world gold market is dominated by the threat of Central Banks who's interests are to support their own currencies and to assure their reserves which are held in gold ( in case their currencies break apart ) . These banks make no secret with regard to their activities in equity, bond and currency manipulations for their best interests. Presumably they are just as active in the precious metals markets.

World gold and silver demand have continually out stripped mine side supply for years and years. At current prices ( presumably set by the wishes of the CB's or hedgers ) gold and silver stores are rapidly being drawn down ( notice the steady increases in lease rates ) . Currently retail supply is constrained ( note the wait times for deliveries ) , yet 'prices' are not rising ( significant retail demand is building in the US and Germany ) .

As the world situation in asia spreads we are seeing bank runs moving from countries like Malyasia to Hong Kong. Tremendous questions are being raised ( and not answered ) about the conditions of all sizes of banks. Japan recently allowed a top tier financial house sink into bancruptcy ( much to the surprise of the Japanese financial and public communities ) . Thsi is a policy statement and an admission that the Japanese government can not effectively bankroll its nations defaults. Korea may be at the point of being unable to renew its short term bonds. Multiple currencies are under attack as investment blocks begin to recognize their exposure to devaluations as well as faultering equities markets and internal economies.

Many equities markets have experienced declines of 20 to 50 % WITH currency devaluations of up to 30%. A market which has lost 25% in its value in conjunction with a 25% currency depriciation is the equivalent of a value drop of 44%. US and European markets have declined as well and hold a negative bias in recent activities ( past 4 months ) .


BTW - gold or silver may drop 5% in the near term. There is 1+ Tln USD in money market accounts owned by people in the US. If, over the next year, people feel that this money is threatened by devaluation or default and they have nothing else to plow that money into what will they turn to as the last resort?

In this game late will be never. You will be competing with 500 million other first world purchasers who want very badly to own some gold and silver. The word 'stampede' comes to mind. Once the price rises by 10% from its current levels people will cascade into the metals market like an explosion. At this point the CB's and hedgers have control. Someone has been accumulating gold at these very low prices. This is the 'smart money'; people who know what is going to happen. Follow smart money, avoid the rush.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:35 - ID#340459)
@Letting Off Steam
The Paper games to gyp us have to end sometime, The Law is stacked against honest money and developed for usury, All our monies are in this warped system and the system is becoming sickening and convoluted

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:38 - ID#386276)
The S&P500 was doing the same thing,
This time last month.
Gap up on globex, then sell off during the day.
And we all know what followed. ( :o}}}}
This occured for five days in a row then a large decline followed.
Watch out below.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:42 - ID#243180)
08-14 Economist:

"Indians love gold. Their country is the largest consumer of gold in the world, devouring a quarter of global production last year. Most of this feeds demand for gold jewellery in rural India, where the only other investment options are bank deposits and land. So while international prices have dropped sharply this year, Indians have been buying record amounts"

Indians still buy record amounts of gold even though the markup due to Indian regulations were as high as 53%. Do they know something we only theorize ? ...

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:43 - ID#348129)
HAHAHAHA - This is great, we are finally succeeding in driving off the annoying doubters. We must be doing something right, even with PM's in a slump.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:45 - ID#246224)
Re:thread - just thought we could do a bit of research on each of these gents and compile a profile. If you could be the compiler of the results that would be great. Obviously this is not something to become obsessive about. But over time we could, I think, at least get a better picture. We will need people from the various regions or those who can do some research in the person's own language, eh? We need to know how many others have interest in contributing to this in order to divvy up the load.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:51 - ID#283277)
George Soros buying or selling?
Sealark ( @Nov.7@19:41 ) ...In response to your question re: why George Soros was selling NEM in the latter days of October.....if Soros truly believes in his philosophy that there is a fatal human flaw of misconception, then I might suggest that Soros, like Nathan Rothschild of the London House in the early 1800s, would be actively depressing gold stock prices only to buy them up later at depressed prices. The question I leave to you and all is, while we hear news about Soros's selling of NEM coinciding with a depression in gold prices through the LBMA and N.M. Rothschild & Sons in London ( Soros is connected to them ) , when we hear news of Soros buying back the same stock at discounted prices?

We can never underestimate the market acumen of Soros and Nathan Rothschild of old in being able to deliberately affect market sentiment through their enormous financial clout. History is a good about how Nathan Rothschild used to depress stock sentiments in London in the 1800s, causing the herd to panic, then after the herd had fallen into the trap, buying back the same stock at a bargain. Nathan benefited from Waterloo, knowing well in advance of the English monarchy and stock markets, that Napoleons fate had been sealed and he acted in the market to benefit from the news that would emerge the next day. It is the epitomy of playing the confidence game which is the market like a Strad.

The fundamental question NO ONE on KITCO has yet answered, nor has WGC or London Goldfield Services, is WHO IS BUYING THE GOLD and to whom are the forward sales such as those of Barrick promised? History books will be written about that person or persons when they emerge on the world stage to reveal their identify. Will George Soros again claim that fiat currencies, such as the Malaysian and other Asian currencies, were afterall inherently unsustainable and misconceived and thus had to be rationalized?

I, for one am betting on Soros buying up gold as we twiddle our thumbs on Kitco, either personally, or on behalf of those gold traders of old ( folks like the House of Rothschild ) or new players ( maybe Hong Kong business men on behalf of China ) ...

Would appreciate any thoughts or commentary.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:52 - ID#31868)
Miro: When the legions of taxpayers in the US figure out paper is worth as much as any politicians word...taxes won't mean a thing. They will storm into the only real money god has given us to remind us how pathetic the word of man is.

Fear makes even cowards and lemmings brave.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 14:59 - ID#57232)
SDRer: Appreciate the complement about reading my posts more than once. I think what you are doing is far more significant than anything I have done. Your comment about the new world's currency ( whatever it is ) being based somehow on the dollar makes sense, given the current playing field. Not that the dollar is so great -- just that the alternatives seem worse. Also, this is the only way the transition from the dollar can occur without turbulence. At one time we were thinking of the Japanese yen as one of the currencies in a basket. Doesn't look like such a hot idea anymore.
Can you explain to me what you and Allen ( USA ) have discovered about the SDR? I thought this was an inflated relic of a prior attempt to move off the "dollar standard". As I recall part of the reason it failed was that there was a natural tendency to use a single strong currency rather than a basket. Now, if the new, "improved" currency was based on somthing new -- such as being linked to gold, and had an "iron-clad" endorsement of some kind, with the dollar being part of the basket, it might fly.
We do need to be careful about hanging too much hope on any other currency except gold -- I am doubtful that the eventual pending currency turmoil can be averted. But -- the "powers that be" will try.

Perhaps the "Group of 30" is the world-wide "Currency Crisis plunge protection team"! One for the markets, and one for the world's currencies. It takes only a moment to figure out which is more important to the Central Bankers!
By the way, I do agree with you about the Swiss. They are in an enviable position - even if they will be forced to devalue the Swiss Frank.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 15:01 - ID#31868)
If Soros is a waterboy as has been suggested, he is a flea compared to the actual buying if in fact the House of Roth is accumulating even more gold than it holds.

The Chinese are accumulating, as are the Russians. Each have many buying faces through so much mumbo jumbo accounting as to make a cajun blush.

A culture that can master the art of folding metal to create a sword of the calibre the Japanese fabricate is not to be dismissed. They know metal. the same people can take a piece of paper 4 foot by six foot and fold it up to the size of a postage stamp so it can be used as a road map in a crowded glovebox.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 15:28 - ID#373294)
Markus ( George Soros buying or selling? ) : Your logic is sound and insights well worth consideration. If indeed the Roths have worked together as a close knit team during most of 200 years, their wealth most today be unimaginable... and perhaps even reachs levels not attained byentire governments. To give us a reference point as to their financial clout - as you so aptly describe it - can you estimate the total net worth of the Rothschild Group today if they had compounded their net worth after their financial 'killing' in London subsequent to the defeat of napoleon at Waterloo? Perhaps then we will all have a better appreciation of what the Roths can do - since they have so much to protect. This might also support the hypothesis that George Soros migh be in the EMPLOY of the Roths, which would explain how he has enjoyed such phenomenal luck in the currencies market during the last 10 years. Perhaps, Soros was privy to forehand knowledge of where the Roths were placing their bets. To my knowledge NO ONE HERETOFORE HAS EVER TRIED TO ESTIMATE THE ROTHSCHILD WEALTH. It has to be of monumental interest to the general public WORLDWIDE to know that there exists this concentration of wealth. Waht are they worht TODAY?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 15:31 - ID#31868)
Jack Kemp's Single Currency
by Zola

The problem with one of anything is lack of
choice. One flavor of ice cream. One candidate in an
election ( but, of course, everyone gets to vote ) .

The problem with the Federal Reserve is not that it
creates money by fiat, but that it claims a monopoly on
that right. If each one of us had the same right ( and we
do ) , then competition would quickly establish whose
currencies are being properly managed. Sure, there may
be "natural monopolies" somewhere. But it's hardly
natural if it's imposed by the state.

Then there are the international monopolists, like
the perpetual loons that promote an international gold
standard without telling us how that's supposed to
happen. Is some international body going to dictate the
gold standard by force of arms? If all governments agree
on a gold standard, aren't we simply promoting
government power--giving up to them the right to decide?
Do proper monetary arrangements come from the barrel of
a gun? ( "My money or your life." )

The problem with "Neues Ordnung" arrangements
is the question of who is in charge. The problem with
state monopolies is the suppression of better ideas, as well
as the inherent right of the individual to simply opt out of
the system. The problem with monotheism is the issue of
who gets to be God.

"Jack Kemp wants a single currency for the United
States and the 33 other nations of the Western
hemisphere. The former congressman, housing secretary
under President Bush, and 1996 GOP vice presidential
nominee is touting his idea as the foundation for a low-
tariff trade zone from the Arctic Circle to the tip of Tierra
del Fuego," reports The Washington Times.

Now the European folly has come to America. A
"Euro" for North and South America. Will we call it
the "Amero"? The European Monetary System cannot,
after all, be held up as the peak of perfection just because
it has made a lot of foreign exchange traders rich. Sure
the German government supports it. It's their way of
trying to continue to dominate the monetary affairs of
Europe. Sure France supports it. It's their way of keeping
diplomats employed.

"There would be a common currency linked to the
U.S. dollar, and you'd have stable exchange rates as a
result," says Mr. Kemp. Well, I'm sorry to be the first to
you inform of this, Jack, but there is already a common
Western hemisphere currency linked to U.S. dollar. It's
called the U.S. dollar, stupid. And all other currencies are
linked to it. The link is call "international trade and

And what's this bit about a "low-tariff trade zone
from the Arctic Circle to the tip of Tierra del Fuego". Is
this re-warmed NAFTA and GATT ? The promotion of
"free trade" in order to restrict it, the creation of new
international bureaucracies? Kemp never should have
been Labor Secretary. Some people, once they get a taste
for it, can never get bureaucracy out of their system.

If Mr. Kemp wants to promote a common
currency, he should give his attention to shoring up the
U.S. dollar. How could he that? He could persuade the
Federal Reserve to no longer buy U.S. government debt.
Such an action would instill vast international confidence
in the U.S. dollar.

And why not? The U.S. budget is, after all,
balanced, isn't it? The politicians have told us so. And
politicians, people like Mr. Kemp, do not lie.

"A hemispheric free-trade zone would allow goods
and services to cross borders [more freely] from the tip of
Chile to the top of Canada," Kemp says. "It would expand
the growth of our economy and theirs."

Well, gee, the next time I'm in Costa Rica, I'll
check with Mr. Kemp to see if his plan allows me to buy
some goods and services. Because I've never had any
problem before.

I've got your international monetary arrangement
right here, Mr. Kemp.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 15:35 - ID#31868)
TMH: Gold Eagle had a reference to it ( roth egg basket ) under oracle I think.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 15:45 - ID#31868)
from Gold Eagle - ORACLE -

The market finesse of Nathan Rothschild at New Court in London is legendary. Through his financial brilliance and market clout, he would depress stock prices and markets and almost destroyed one his merchant banking foes, Barings, when attacked. It has been estimated that the Rotshchild family was worth over U.S. $6.5 billion by 1850. ( vronsky note: $6.5 billion at a mere 4% compound interest since 1850 would put the value of the Rothschild fortune today at $2.1 TRILLION ) . The male offspring of Nathan still help fix London gold each day.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 15:51 - ID#187218)
To those interested - LGB works for LORAL Corp. and not Soros, CNBC, etc.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 15:53 - ID#382205)
coins or bars@insurance
What is the preferable way to hold a small amount of gold? 1 oz maple leafs or 1 ounce bars. The costs appear the be about the same. Do bars have to be assayed before sale? Thanks in advance.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 15:59 - ID#30116)
I'm amazed at how well the Dow is holding up. TICK at -1113 and TRIN at 1.52 VIX at 36.82 and the Dow is off only 34 points?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:01 - ID#187218)
panda: Do U know when the last time the VIX was single digits ?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:08 - ID#246224)
Coins have some nominal value as currency denominated so there is a fall back value should the underlying spot price collapse. Check out the Canadian 310 USD coin to be released soon ( guarranteed buy back at $310 for two years after issue ) . American Silver Eagle is 1 USD. American Gold Eagle is $50, I think. They are assayed and maked as 3 or 4 9's fine so do not need to be reweighed or asseyed for purity. Also you can pretty much tell if a coin has been shaved or otherwise abused. Lastly they can appreciate in value ( bullion coins ) depending on their rarity. I notice silver bullion prior to 1990 at 25 cent premium.

Some here have advocated old coins since they are ( have been ) exempt from confiscation and tend to increase in price faster and further than bullion itself.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:12 - ID#246224)
What about them markets !!!
What strength! What resiliance! What BS! Goosed by over 100 point at the open and absolutely no follow through. Just down, down, down. Steady selling. At some point, after a number of these engine restart efforts failing, the captain and crew will be heading to the exits with parachutes on. Are there enough for everyone??? Beware when you don't see an up tick morning.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:12 - ID#187218)
Just got quotes:

100 oz. bar = $494
10 oz. bar = $ $50.60
1 oz. silver round = $5.06

Eagle, Maple, Credit Suisse are all $326.

What disturbs me is the tremendous markup of Silver Eagles over Maple Leafs. I keep buying the Maples over the Eagles due to this. The reason for premium is ???

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:13 - ID#283277)
History of the Rothschilds
With the reported death of Baron Edmond de Rothschild of the French House, a brief reflection on the Rothschild history is in order as we continue to witness a depressing gold market. There are few books on this important family, yet their influence on European and market history is beyond accounting. For an excellent insight read "The Rothschilds" by Frederic Morton ( 1962 ) .

Here are some excerpts and insights into that book.
1. It was estimated that by 1850 The House of Rothschild ( which extended to England, France, Prussia, Austria, and Italy through the five sons of Mayer Amschild Rothschild ) was worth in excess of $6 billion. In today's dollars that wealth, if allowed to compound at say 8% per annum would now be worth in excess of $255 trillion. Fantastical? Perhaps, but just to illustrate the magnitude of their influence and wealth in the 19th century. No one, including the Rockefellers or Fuggers or Soros has come close to such wealth. The problem is that estimating their wealth then and now is nearly impossible, given the secretive nature of the family in guarding its wealth and property.

2. The French House, which was most recently headed by the Baron Edmond de Rothschild, was the most powerful merchanting banking arm and the richest of all the Rothschilds and ran the Compaigne Fincanciere, a world wide organization which builds villas, hotels, pipelines, and finances other banks. Rothschild Freres, run by cousing Baron Guy Eduoard, was the largest private bank in France. The French House also controlled mining companies ( de Beers and gold mines in South Africa ) , metal plants ( Rio Tinto ) , oil interests ( Royal Dutch Shell ) , and chemical industries. The Baron was estimated to be the richest Rothschild and probably the most multiple millionaire/billionaire in Europe. That wealth is now passed on to his son, in Rothschild tradition always to the males, Benjamin ( 34 years of age ) . Edmonds cousin Baron Guy Eduoard was director of the Bank of France. Baron Guy, who owned the Compagnie du Nord railway network in France, was known to use participants to join in ventures serving as initiator and packager as well as guarantor with very deep pockets of cash. The Rothschilds also had a history of guarantor to governments throughout Europe.

3. In the 1920s the banks of England, France, and Sutrai were organized under the French House into a noisless international syndicate that reached from J.P. Morgan in New York to their cousin Baron Louis' Creditanstallt in Vienna, Austria.

4. The London House ( New Court ) was founded by Nathan Mayer Rotschild and is today N.M. Rothschild and Sons is the world's key bullion broker reponsible for helping set the price of gold each day on the London Bullion Market Assoc ( LBMA ) . As owner and operator of the Royal Mint Refinery there were the primary gold agent to the Bank of England. Nathan's descendants continue to be merchant banker extraordinaire in England. N.M. Rothschild still lists the trading of bullion and treasuries as their key business interest. Nathan helped finance Britain's conquest of Napoleen at Waterloo and new in advance of the English Monarch the fate of Napoleon, and benefited from that advanced knowledge in the stock market. Nathan eventually switched businesses to "buying and selling money only." On a daily basis, Nathan was legendary in London's markets for jumping in and out of the market with tens of thousands of princely rounds, never too early and never too late. Eventually Nathan would become richer than Prince William. Nathan bought 800,000 poiunds of gold from the East Indian Company for $8 million then sold the gold to the Duke of Wellington to help defeat Napoleon, hence Nathan became chief broker and pay master general to England's most important army. Rothschilds became Englands lifeline getting gold and then paper notes to the English army. Nathan would single handedly wipe out savings of many a competitor by dumping "consols" in London driving down their share prices and knowing in advance of knews such as Waterloo was not lost. Nathans ability to depress stock prices then buy them up after people panicked was legendary.. He would use Rothschild agents to send false news which would be used by observers falsely leading the crowd astray then he would buy up the same stock at ridiculous low prices. One of the Rothschild's first victims was the legendary Barings and Ouvard Bank which Nathan almost destroyed after their Barings is no longer!

5. Mayer and his five sons established the first great international clearinghouse to help avoid the trouble of transmitting gold bullion....similar to the LBMA today.

6. Direct quote from the book "it would be insufficient to sum up the family as still very wealthy." Their fortunes in England and France are as "ineffable as always."

7. The two banks in London and Paris are still probably the largest private institutions in the world. "Although the French house controls scores of industrial, commercial, mining, and tourist corporations, NOT ONE bears the family name."

8. Also from the same book "today the family grooms the inaudibility and invisibility of its presence as a result, some believe that little is left apart from a great legend and the Rothschilds are quite content to let legend be their public relations."

9. "The wealth of Rothschild consists of the bankruptcy of nations"..."to this day Rothschild commissions are unknown and incalculable."

10. The rules of Rotschild:
- all key posts in a firm are manned by family members.
- only male sons inherit family wealth
- secret sets of books are kept in addition to official ones
- gold was held in subterranean passages by Mayer Amschel Rothschild, the founding parent born in Frankfurt, Germany in 1744.

Some may argue that that was then and this is now....but I doubt that very much. It would be wiser for the Rothschilds to cultivate the illusion that the romantic old days are gone and hire a ghost write to tell that romantic story. Whether Frederic Morton was one of their hired autobiographers, we shall never know. But what Morton does reveal is itself cause for reflection on what influence the male Rothschilds currently wield in today's market.....

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:14 - ID#285233)
tolerant1 - if you really want to know how the private FR system got started and who was the driving force behind it, just follow the life of Jacob H. Schiff. Schiff's employment by the Frankfurt's House of the Roth where his financial genius was discovered; Schiff then sent to the London House of the Roth; his late 1800 early 1900 unmatched political/financial influence with seemingly unlimited funds once he moved to the US; his stellar influence within the financial houses on Wall Street; and finally his greatest achievement ( with the help of P.Warburg who was a close associate of the London's House of R. and who moved to the US just few years prior to 1913 ) the passing of FR Act. If you follow this twisted path you will be amazed and never again be unsure how all this started.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:15 - ID#93177)
Dow Index
Panda, didn't you know that the Dow Jones 30 is the most watched stock index in the world? It is so special, that the NYSE
floor specialists take pride in the fact, that they can easily manipulate
30 stocks much easier than say the OEX or SP-500. The fact remains, that the market as a whole today, was very weak heading into the close
and the Nasdaq performed much weaker. The only question I have, is
when will the boys decide that it is time to tank the Dow 30?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:22 - ID#390250)
US the Great
Seems "market protection team" short of Armo at the end of cession.
Tommorrow, they will prepare more to protect, unless tonite is very hot...
But, what the heck, only US has the right to issue unlimited Armo ( US$$$ )

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:24 - ID#31868)
Thanks for the his. and info on the Roth's.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:24 - ID#187218)
Does anyone have information on how many floor "specialist' are on the floor at one given time and how much flexibility they have with violating SEC rules.


(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:28 - ID#344308)
what to do in these circumstances?

what would rockefeller, getty, morgan, and templeton
be doing? they bought the over-looked and CHEAP markets.
they would be accumulating hand over fist at every
new low with BIG smiles.

historical economics
are the best indicators of what to expect from future
market actions. the new economic models ( last 20 yrs ) ( equations )
have been un-nervingly in-correct. thus, what should one
expect from their ideology of a permanent paradigm shift
to a permanent bull in equities?

the young money-managers
have ridden a s&p bull to the stars----

now the im-movable object can wrestle with the un-stoppable force--

the un-stoppable force ( nature ) will move the im-movable object as
dust in the wind ( kansas )

cherokee!; ) inhaler-of-stardust--and-seeker-of-the-green---to-turn-to-gold

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:28 - ID#187218)
In your latest post you quoted:

"The French House also controlled mining companies ( de Beers and gold mines in South Africa ) ..."

I did not know the DeBeers family were of the Rothschild family. Even though they are of the same ilk they are seperate and distinct families - No ??? The DeBeers may have learned from the Roths but related -?-?-...

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:28 - ID#201238)

Comex warehouse gold stocks fell 499 oz. to 571,360 oz.

Comex warehouse silver stocks FELL 511,901 oz to 129,273,373 oz.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:31 - ID#256264)
The XAU has obeyed perfectly. It will not have the
potential to stop its downmove until the full moon
hits ( when is that, soon? huh? ) . In fact, the
down move may accelerate into the full moon cycle.
I still expect low 70s. This may be the ultimate bottom!
IBM still going down as well.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:38 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.32

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:38 - ID#187218)

Fund managers find UK equities more attractive

"Fund managers are using the recent market correction to buy UK equities at cheaper valuations, according to the latest Merrill Lynch/Gallup survey. About 61 per cent of managers thought it would be economically desirable for the UK to join EMU. Nine out of 10 anticipate eventual membership, but the expected entry date is now 2002."

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:38 - ID#283277)
Rothschild Estimated Wealth
TMH: Based on the book by Morton "The Rotshchilds" the House of Rothschild ( all Houses throughout France, England, Prussia, Italy, and Austria ) were estimated in 1850 at over $6 billion. While undoubtedly some has been lost in the course of history more has undoubtedly been accumulated since then. Even at modest compounded growth rates here are my estimates of their worth using $6 billion dollars compounded since in 1850 ( 147 years ) :

4% compounded rate of return: $1.914 trillion US
5% - $7.816 trillion US
6%- $31.5 trillion US
7% - $125,189.1 trillion US
8% - $491,409.0 trillion US

Now compare that to the estimated wealth of nations, like the US or the world's total estimated wealth? I don't have the figures, but someone else can do the math.

The problem with estimating their wealth is that the family has a history of keeping a secret set of books ( which was started by Mayer Amschel Rothschild back in the 1700s in Germany ) which never revealed as part of the final will and testament of male members of the family...this secret accounting system has allowed the Rothschilds to escape taxation of their wealth. Consider this tidbit. Anticipating the death of Eduoard Rothschild ( French House ) in 1949, the Rothschild agents began to sell their majority stock holdings of Royal Dutch Shell, Rio Tinto and Le Nickel ( giant mining corporation ) to drive down the price of shares just prior to his death to reduce the value of the estate that was subject to taxation by the French Government. This selling created a panic in the world markets depressing stock prices further. A few days following the death of Eduoard, Rothschild agents bought the volume of stock back at depressed prices and his reported estate wealth was taxed at the depressed price on the day of his death. So never, underestimate their capacity to influence markets, even today. Consider that Royal Dutch Shell is still the largest oil company in the world.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:41 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .260

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:46 - ID#283277)
DeBeers and Roths
WetGold: I know little about the DeBeers family and relationship with the House of Rothschild, however, based on Morton's informative and I believe to be relatively accurate book on the Rothschilds it was noted that the French House controlled significant mining company interests in South Africa, including DeBeers. It is highly possible that given the historical approach of the Rothschilds to maintain a low profile and avoid the use of their name in any transactions or stock holding and given their untold of wealth that they may have provided the necessary financial assistance to the deBeers to develop their diamond mining interests. Don't forget that the Roths try to avoid the glare of publicity, except when it relates to philanthropic interests like their wineries or botany. Contrast that to Soros who likens himself as a god or Keynes or Einstein ( see "The Alchemy of Finance"...epilogue chapter ) .

Hope this helps!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:47 - ID#187218)

"Framework for Sound Banking

The IMF's Executive Board has broadly agreed that the following objectives should provide guidance for strengthening financial systems:

- increasing the transparency of banks;
- limiting public sector distortions;
- controlling risk through regulatory and supervisory oversight;
- strengthening the broader structural framework;
- fostering national and international supervisory coordination."

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:55 - ID#187218)
About 8-10 years ago I was at a seminar in Boca Raton, FL and late that night I was watching cable ( PBS ) and saw a documentary regarding the history and mystique of the deBeers family. Although I agree with you regarding the clandestine nature of the Roths I was not drawn to the Roths while viewing this documentary. I am not at all suggesting that it is beyond the possibilities. The documentary was, by no means, complimentary of the deBeers. When I had returned a week or two later I called my local PBS station and they had no record of this documentary. Several weeks later I called the local Florida PBS affiliate and they were to get back to me - Never Did!!! Since then I periodically try to research and/or purchase a copy of this accounting of the deBeers. It was quite damaging and I suspect someone saw it and bought the rights.

Soem of the footage showed local South Africans scooping up diamonds on a beach by the thousands. The folks were shoulder to shoulder ( hundreds ) and picking nugget size diamonds by the handful and plentiful as seashells. Another interesting portion of this documentary was the public relations the family had placed on the extravagence of owning diamonds - they used Hollywood and Queen Elizabeth to display the jewels soon to be marketed to the common folks ...

Thanx for your insights ...

(Mon Nov 10 1997 16:57 - ID#57232)
Marcus: Am thoroughly enjoying your Rothschilds history lesson! I wonder if the Rothschilds have as much gold as the USA -- perhaps more. What really strikes home are your comments about how the historical Rothschilds would create a selling panic, and then buy up whatever it is for a song. This pattern is exactly what is happening with gold right now -- anyone with historical perspective, sufficiently deep pockets - and patience could do this. Just encourage the current trend a little bit with some news and gold sales at the right moments. Imagine what a genius George Soros would appear to be to the rest of us mere mortals if he had access to the information database the Rothschilds must have at their fingertips. What really amazes me is how the Rothschilds retained their wealth in the era of Monarchies - when wealth or catastrophe was at the whim of a King or Emporer. If they could survive those times with wealth intact, it would be a trivial matter to survive modern times.
What you describe is the holding company to beat all holding companies: The French house alone includes RD, RTZ, deBeers, etc. Bill Gates is small fry! No wonder they need the LBMA -- just to maintain their operation withour leaving a trail for others to follow!
It would be interesting also to know where all the gold is going, wouldn't it? Probably only to a few locations. I wonder if there are any Chinese Rothschilds? There might be a sufficient cultural difference to prevent key Chinese and Japanese from being part of the Rothschilds organization. This might lead to some interesting conclusions about what is happening now, and what might happen. China as a nation might even be more formidable than Japan ... I wonder ... perhaps there is a clash of financial titans going on .. and we have only glimpses of what is going on behind the scenes.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:08 - ID#263259)
@next to nowhere
Allen re 14:33 post: Agreed in general but IMHO the bear market for PMs bottomed this summer with the first rise of PGMs. But each one of us has to weigh their own priorities. The swift and smart might like to gamble on trading to beat the herd. Plodders like myself are well into averaging into them for a 3-5 year time horizon. Now to fight off the urge to sell too quickly on the way up! ........... All: I am disappointed to see people so quickly pulled into useless arguments with passing bears and even trolls like the Cat. It serves no purpose, and frankly some of the reactionaries sound a lot like they are trying to sell raffle tickets ...............

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:14 - ID#57232)
@Bank run?
Donald: See anything to corroborate Jin's post about a run on a Hong Kong bank? Jin's posts have been pretty accurate.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:16 - ID#333131)
@more Japan worries

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:18 - ID#222186)
*** Rumors spark Hong Kong bank run

Depositors rushed to branches of the International Bank of Asia in
Hong Kong Monday to withdraw money, prompting the government to deny
rumors that some banks were experiencing financial troubles. The Hong
Kong Monetary Authority, the territory's de facto central bank, said
the rumors were "without foundation." ( USA Today )

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:23 - ID#333131)
@Arab:US patient with Israel, trigger happy with Saddam

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:28 - ID#194311)
house of roth
fact: one Nathan Rothschild attended college at Oxford 4-5 years ago and is now well connected in London banking circles....the new gnat?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:28 - ID#9385)
In re: Soros and forward sales
MARKUS: Obviously, Soros et al sold NEM expecting it and gold to go lower, which it has. At some point gold will make its low and trend higher. And when Soros et al expect that this has occurred, then they may buy it just like others will buy. What is not obvious and the real question is when will this low occur - now or at $230 gold. As to who is buying the forward sales, as well known, customarily bullion dealers are the party to the transaction on a risk free basis. As to the who has purchased the gold from the bullion dealers and for what purpose, importantly, I have not seen any reported evidence that gold has been or is being accumulated by investors for investment purposes. On the contrary, reported evidence is that there has been disinvestment. And clearly, the reason is that fundamentally, gold has been a "PP" investment.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:29 - ID#283277)
JTF Turning Points...ANOTHER's insights
JTF...Glad you enjoyed these really have to read the books of Rothschilds and Soros to understand what the Big Traders are capable of . The Rothschilds were masterful money changers and currency traders, the best in their class, and the choice of many a European monarch....almost every major European political power, Prince William, Bismarck, Disraeli, Queen Victoria. You can take nothing away from their masterful skills at the craft. They made money on every single loan and transaction and helped to finance wars and peaceful projects. They were the financier of choice for all of Europe being crafty enough to have set up in every major European power with 5 sons and their subsequent offspring. The fact that they are not part of most history books, as many money changers are not, is remarkable ( read The Rise of the House of Rothschild" by Count Corti, written in 1926 covering the period 1770-1830, a remarkable book with admission by Corti very little is written or documented about the Rothschild influence on European finance, yet their name appears in several key financial transactions ) . They have maintained a veil of anonymity using the media as their shield.

Reading Soros' books suggests that Soros is no less a master at currency trading than the Rothschilds of old ( namely Nathan of N.M. Rothschild in London ) . That Soros is working for N.M. Rothschld or for Baron Edmond ( now deceased ) would not surprise me in the least, given the Roths penchant for astute analysts who think like they do. Undoubtedly some of Soros cash reserves and deep pockets must come from the Roths who support him as one of their chief traders. They must, however, find Soros a bit of loose canon given his tendancy to liken himself as some kind of currency trading god ( self-professed ) and his desire to philosophize and philantropize openly now that he has accumulated untold sums of wealth.

My theory, like the Oracle of Alberta, is that the Rothschilds are as different as the Chinese as water and oil. My current thinking is that if you consider who the top businessmen in the world tend to be...they are usually Chinese ( althroughout Asia ) , mainly in Hong Kong and the likes of merchant bankers like the Rothschilds, Rockefellers and J.P. Morgan. My suspicion is that if there are Chinese "Rothschilds" they are only so in the spirit of maintaing/increasing power and wealth but generally they are competitors....just as the Roths competed against other merchant bankers like Barings in the old days.

Consider ANOTHERs latest insights into the relationship between gold and oil and now consider the influence the Rothschilds have in both those "commodities" through the LBMA and through Royal Dutch Shell. They are always in the right place at the right time.

Where is the gold going? I haven't heard anyone definitely answer the question...but others such as the Red Baron and ANOTHER's comments might point to the place. Undoubtedly what we are seeing in the gold markets is a confidence game of enormous proportions to keep the fiat currencies alive. All this time people like the gold merchants and transaction agents, N.M. Rothschild & Sons ( and possible Soros ) , have been making money during every LBMA transaction, whether dealing with promisory notes for future gold bullion or actual physical bullion. I suspect that they are also accumulating the physical stuff in anticipation that the fiat currencies, as Soros suggests should happen, become unsustainable due primarily to the implosion of debt beginning in Japan then washing over into the U.S. and European currency marketts ( as John K ( World View ) spoke of on Friday ) . My guess is that is precisely what they are doing, HOWEVER, still playing a key role of gold trader ( and treasuries trader ) for CBs and governments while these entities try desperately to keep the confidence game going a while longer. Whether the Roths are playing a contrarion role by preparing for the eventual crash of fiat currencies by slowly accumulating the physical bullion in their own vaults, we shall never know...there are no reliable gold analysts who are not somehow tied to those powerful interests. At this point, as they have done in previous times in European history, they should be astute enough to be hoarding gold bullion so that when things do crash ( and they most certainly will, in time...maybe not until 2000 ) they will have control of a significant amount of gold bullion such that the world's powers will again turn to the Rothschilds as the merchant bankers of highest repute to help refinance themselves out of the mess. Some might argue that no single entity, including the Roths could pull something like this off. But I only ask you to read their history to understand that they have in the past, and they are capable of the same today...long after the wealthiest Monarch's of Europe ( except the House of Windsor ) are long dead.
JTF Wrote:
( @after_the_turning_point ) ID#57232:

Marcus: Am thoroughly enjoying your Rothschilds history lesson! I wonder if the Rothschilds have as much gold as the USA -- perhaps more. What really strikes home are your comments about how the historical Rothschilds would create a selling panic, and then buy up whatever it is for a song. This pattern is exactly what is happening with gold right now -- anyone with historical perspective, sufficiently deep pockets - and patience could do this. Just encourage the current trend a little bit with some news and gold sales at the right moments. Imagine what a genius George Soros would appear to be to the rest of us mere mortals if he had access to the information database the Rothschilds must have at their fingertips. What really amazes me is how the Rothschilds retained their wealth in the era of Monarchies - when wealth or catastrophe was at the whim of a King or Emporer. If they could survive those times with wealth intact, it would be a trivial matter to survive modern times.
What you describe is the holding company to beat all holding companies: The French house alone includes RD, RTZ, deBeers, etc. Bill Gates is small fry! No wonder they need the LBMA -- just to maintain their operation withour leaving a trail for others to follow!
It would be interesting also to know where all the gold is going, wouldn't it? Probably only to a few locations. I wonder if there are any Chinese Rothschilds? There might be a sufficient cultural difference to prevent key Chinese and Japanese from being part of the Rothschilds organization. This might lead to some interesting conclusions about what is happening now, and what might happen. China as a nation might even be more formidable than Japan ... I wonder ... perhaps there is a clash of financial titans going on .. and we have only glimpses of what is going on behind the scenes.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:29 - ID#57232)
korondy: Thanks. Wonder if this is like the Brazilian government denying that there is any trouble with their financial system. News from countries near Brazil has not been so positive.
Perhaps this time the "bank run" was contained -- wonder what is just around the corner for us all.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:31 - ID#26793)

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:35 - ID#394276)
Israel is the only country with non-compliance of Hundreds of UN Resolutions, NO ONE IN US MEDIA DARE TO MENTION THIS

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:37 - ID#30116)
WetGold -- Sorry about the 'hit and run' post. I don't know about single digit numbers for the VIX, but for most of 1995 and 1996 ( during long, uninterrupted run up ) , it remained between about 10+ to 20. Essentially the market was one way, up. You couldn't lose by buying call options and holding. It's a different story now. With a high VIX, option premiums get rich.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:42 - ID#222186)
JTF, A poster by the handle "JohnK" recently posted a most enlightening essay. I have reformatted it and uploaded it here:

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:44 - ID#222186)
Well, taht didn't work.

Here is the essay:

Currency Chaos and Financial Collapse

To understand the world financial situation is to understand the difference between reality and illusions of reality. It is to understand that the basis of all financial failures is the inability to pay debt. Debt is repaid from income or profits. When income or profits are insufficient to repay debts, default occurs. occasionally, new debts are provided to repay old debts, but this will only increase total debts and future losses.

Since 1990, the world has witnessed a large economic expansion in the US, and explosive growth in Southeast Asia and China. Within Japan, short term interest rates were decreased to 0.5% and the government initiated the largest fiscal stimulus program the world has ever seen. Has anyone questioned why the second largest economy in the world, with all of its major trading partners having sustained growth, with the lowest interest rates the world has ever seen, with the largest fiscal stimulus package the world has ever seen, has not grown and now the economy is contracting at an annual rate exceeding 11% ?

To begin to answer this question, one must return to pre-bubble Japan, when the Nikkei was near 40, 000 when land values at Ohtemachi and Toranomon in central Tokyo would have bought all of Canada or all of California, and when Tokyo was worth more than the United States. On the basis of these valuations, the Japanese Banks, making them some of the largest corporations in the world, lent trillions of dollars. These loans were not supported by the income of the borrowers, but by the assets they pledged for security. Today, the Nikkei is below 16, 500 and dropping, and commercial land prices are down 70% and dropping. The loans are still outstanding, but with borrowers unable to repay loans from income and realizable asset values far below loan values, these loans remain on the books as the losses on these loans likely far exceed the banks' capital. The size of total losses is unknown. However, during November/95, Japan's finance ministry announced that non-performing loans at the Osaka based Kizu credit co-operative were 960 billion yen representing more than 70% of total loans. A further 230 billion yen were thought to be doubtful leaving less than 10% of Kizu's loans as performing assets. Does this tell us anything about how the balance sheets of the large banks really look? The loss of net worth represented by the collapse of the Japanese stock and real estate markets represents many trillions of US dollars. At the height of the bubble, Japanese land values were estimated to be between 16 to 20 trillion US dollars. A 70% decline represents a $11 to $14 trillion dollar loss in the real estate market alone. When the banks start selling real estate to repay bank loans, look for the market to drop even further. Add this to the losses totaling trillions of US dollars on the stock market and the potential loss exposure of the Japanese banks is staggering. When the bubble in Japan burst and banks were facing massive loan losses and negative growth prospects, a new source of revenue had to be found. This led to a large increase in lending to Southeast Asia which helped fuel a bubble in these economies. In addition, exposure to derivatives increased to trillions of dollars. We have recently seen the bubble burst in South East Asia which will further add to the loan losses that the banks cannot report as they do not have the capital to do so. It is estimated that when the Nikkei dropped below 16,500 many banks' capital fell below the 8% minimum required by Japan's Ministry of Finance. This does not include the losses on loans to the Japanese and Southeast Asia bubbles that are real, just not reported.

When the Japanese bubble burst, the Japanese government began a series of fiscal and monetary stimulation to get the economy restarted. Total government debt rose to between 87% to 89% of GNP at the end of 1996 and could be as high as 97% of GDP by the end of 1997. The government budget deficit has been running over 7% of GDP. Significantly, despite record low interest rates, interest payments now absorb over 60% of total tax revenue. In addition, there is the Japan's Fiscal Investment and Loan Program, a system that draws money from public pension and postal-savings systems and lends to 57 government agencies. Total borrowings are about 374 trillion yen, and when combined with official borrowings could see Japan's debt inflate to 150% of GDP.

Japan's life-insurance industry reportedly holds 25% of the US 12 trillion dollars in household savings. As highlighted by the failure of Nissan Mutual Life Insurance Co., this industry is also in need of a lifeline. When Nissan Mutual collapsed, liabilities exceeded assets to such a degree that the industry's entire 200 billion yen emergency reserve covered only 2/3 of the loss. These companies have promised returns as much as 5.5% while earning only 2.9% on investments in 1996. For 1997, with bond interest rates decreasing and the stock market declining returns on investment will likely fall below 1996 levels.
According to Standard & Poor's, the level at which hidden profits on stock holdings disappear is as follows:

Company Nikkei Company Nikkei
Toho Life 19327 Mitsui Life 17167
Kyoei Life 19006 Dai-Ichi Life 14948
Nippon Dantai 18835 Meiji Life 13181
Chiyoda Life 17876 Nippon Life 12894
Sumitomo Life 17485 Taiyo Life 9757

Despite near invisible interest rates and huge fiscal stimulus programs, the Japanese economy continues to implode, contracting at a rate exceeding 11% in the last reported quarter. Problems will only increase with the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia where 44% of Japanese exports go. The question that no one dares ask is what does the Japanese government do? The economy is imploding, government's direct and indirect debt is 150% of GDP, the government budget deficit is large and unsustainable, and the banks and life insurance companies appear to be insolvent and will need substantial capital infusions to remain viable. The answer is that the Japanese government cannot repay existing loans and that borrowing additional funds to bail out the banks and insurance companies will only speed the road to bankruptcy. The banks are large holders of government debt, and while it could be argued that the government could borrow even more money from the banks and then turn around and give this money back to the banks to improve their equity positions, this simply amounts to transferring debt and does not address the central issue that neither the banks nor the government are financially solvent. In fact we have the situation where an insolvent government is borrowing from insolvent banks who in turn rely on the backing on the insolvent government. Loans now far exceed the capacity of debt repayment, and compounding interest and an imploding economy will seal their fate. Basically, it is simple mathematics. How long will this continue? Like any bankrupt person, until the credit cards are cut off. It is important to realize that this will take much longer than in a normal commercial situation. Japanese banks must be willing purchasers of Japanese government bonds at all times, regardless of fundamentals. Should a government default on its debt, the value of its currency that reflects the credit of the government must approach zero. Currency is simply another unsecured promise to pay, and currency issued by a bankrupt government will have no value. Generally speaking, the bank's assets are financial ( currency based ) and will also fall to zero if the currency collapses. The banking and financial industries are dependent on a functioning government bond market. It is for this reason that governments that are insolvent can continue to borrow. For clarity, let me repeat the initial question.

Since 1990, the world has witnessed a large economic expansion in the US, and explosive growth in Southeast Asia and China. Within Japan, short term interest rates were decreased to 0.5% and the government initiated the largest fiscal stimulus program the world has ever seen. Has anyone questioned why the second largest economy in the world, with all of its major trading partners having sustained growth, with the lowest interest rates the world has ever seen, with the largest fiscal stimulus package the world has ever seen, has not grown and now the economy is contracting at an annual rate exceeding 11%? These are all conditions that over an extended period of time should produce explosive growth, especially in a country like Japan with a hard working, well-educated population with a high level of national savings. The fact that they have not, can only mean that debt levels are so high that they are consuming more than the country can produce. If unreported bad debts at Japanese banks were only say $500 billion US, over the last 7 years, the effect of world-wide growth, 0.5% interest rates, and trillions of US dollars spent on government stimulus programs would have easily solved the problem. The fact that none of these measures has solved the problem can only mean that bad debts are much larger than anyone realizes. Bad debts must total trillions of US dollars.

Over the last several years Southeast Asia and China have expanded manufacturing capacity at a furious rate, much of this financed by debt. Overcapacity is driving down prices, with Asia's export prices falling 4% over the last year. With recent currency depreciation, this trend will likely accelerate. Falling prices mean falling profit margins that further reduce debt payment capacity. Over capacity and high debt have now infected Japan's neighbors. In Korea, company after company has gone bankrupt, threatening the stability of the banks and possibly the entire country. In 1996, net profit at the 30 largest chaebols fell 90%. Due to the size of its economy, should the Korean won continue to fall, it will add to deflationary pressures within China and Japan. The story is the same in almost all countries within the Pacific Rim. Even China is effected with bankrupt state companies and insolvent banks, where 25% of bank loans are non-performing.

Overcapacity financed by debt leads to falling prices that leads to the bankruptcy of first the borrower and then the lender. Problems accelerate when banks make loans on overpriced real estate or for stock market speculation, as income from these assets is often only a fraction of debt service requirements. When the market revalues these assets based on their ability to generate cash flow, losses are huge. When these events occur in countries where governments have borrowed far beyond their capacity to repay, then bond markets and the value of the currency are destroyed.

In China, consumer price inflation is virtually zero, down from 24% three years ago. Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam are similar. Asset values, from real estate to stock markets are in a major deflation.

In the United States, during the last 3 to 4 years, foreigners have purchased over 2 trillion U. S. dollars in debt and shares. These funds have driven up the value of the US dollar in spite of a large current account deficit. They have kept down the level of interest rates, driven the level of the stock exchange to new highs, and propelled the economy to strong growth. Price deflation in Asia and a strong U. S. dollar have kept inflation at a very low level. It has been the best of times for America. Some even call it a paradigm shift.

"In equity markets, continual upward revisions of longer term corporate earnings expectations have driven price-earnings ratios to levels not often observed at this stage of economic expansion".

"It is difficult to believe that our much higher than expected income tax receipts are unrelated to the huge increase in capital gains which, since 1995 have totaled the equivalent of one-third of national income".

"Today's Central Bankers have the capacity of creating or destroying unlimited supplies of money and credit. "

"Clearly, how well we take our responsibilities in this modern world has profound implications for participants in financial markets. "

These are all quotes from Mr. Greenspan, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank. Mr. Greenspan cannot tell us that Asia is insolvent and will collapse. He is giving us a warning that we must heed. Price deflation and a collapsing economy in Asia will decrease US corporate profits. Lower profits and a lower price to earnings multiple will significantly reduce the level of the US stock markets.

The US budget deficit has decreased because of capital gains taxes. When people report capital losses, the budget deficit will balloon. When Asia collapses money and credit will be destroyed. Japanese banks and insurance companies will be forced to sell US assets to help finance losses in Asia. So will the Chinese. For years, China and Japan have exchanged their goods for US paper. When Japan's economy collapses, they will convert this paper into tangible assets.

The US is the largest debtor in the world, much of it owned by foreigners. They have the largest current account deficit in the world. These factors have caused major financial problems for every country where they have existed. When the Japanese are forced to sell US Treasury debt, it will cause a panic out of treasuries that will sharply increase US interest rates. In addition to other factors already mentioned, higher interest rates will accelerate falling US corporate profits, will accelerate the drop in the US stock market and will accelerate a move to a much higher US government budget deficit. When foreigners sell treasuries, Americans must buy them, which will take money out of other economic activities. Future government budget deficits will have to be financed by Americans, and Americans may find that they may not be able to run large current account deficits. When America's banker goes broke, we may see another paradigm shift.

The problems of large debt levels in a deflating economy are very real. Deflation reduces both income and asset values, which leads to the bankruptcy of both borrowers and lenders. Japan has been deflating for the last 7 years. With the rest of Asia also deflating, deflation in Japan can only continue.

Japanese households have about US $12 trillion in savings. The banks have gambled these funds on real estate and stock market speculation, and over-built manufacturing capacity. The government has spent it attempting to kick start the economy. Some day, everyone will realize that the real value of the assets backing these savings is only a small fraction of this US $12 trillion dollars. Already, some of this money has moved to safer destinations like the United States. While the US financial position is much better than Japan's, fundamentals are still very poor and will deteriorate rapidly when Japanese banks and insurance companies are forced to sell US assets. When the Japanese panic in an attempt to preserve their wealth, their only choice will be an asset that is not someone's liability. The asset that best describes this property is gold.

In 1997, the worldwide demand for gold will be the highest in human history, and will far exceed mine production. Yet the price of gold has fallen to 12 year lows. As the world watches the first tremors to the worldwide financial default, speculators are adding to huge short positions. Experts in the financial markets will tell you that gold has lost its monetary value and there is the continual threat of Central Bank selling. Central bankers in Australia and Switzerland claim that gold is no longer a suitable investment. Australia's actions appear totally unreasonable. Gold is a major employer and export earner for Australia. Even if it were true, why would you tell the world that it has little value? The funds obtained from the gold sale have now been lent to Thailand and Indonesia? Are loans to bail out bankrupt countries a more suitable investment than gold? Even the Swiss announcement appears to be more geared to lowering the price of gold than maximizing the price of an asset you may wish to sell. Gold has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars in bank loans outstanding that are not supported by either the income or assets of the borrower. It has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars in government bonds that are supported by no assets and which interest costs now take up large amounts of government tax receipts. The only thing holding worldwide financial markets together is confidence. Confidence that governments and bankers will not let things get out of hand. Confidence that requires the price of gold to remain low.

Yet all of the confidence one can have does not change the fact that the direct and indirect liabilities of the Japanese government total about 150% of GDP, it does not change the fact that liabilities at Japanese banks and insurance companies likely exceed realizable assets by trillions of US dollars, it does not change the fact that the Japanese economy is contracting, and does not change the fact that Japan and Asia are deflating at an accelerating rate. Some may say these problems are manageable. I would only ask, "How"? In the end, finance comes down to simple mathematics, nothing more nothing less.

A little over 300 billion US dollars buys every once of gold in every central bank in the world. When Japan crashes, none of this will be for sale. Gold miners have sold forward about two years production and speculators hold large short positions. How high does the price go when the US $12 trillion in household savings starts chasing an asset there is so little of?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:45 - ID#244291)
Whispers say that unimagineable amounts Gold will be used /housed in the temple of Solomon, when rebuilt after 2000 yrs of Planning

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:46 - ID#283277)
Sealark..Soros and Forward Sales
Sealark: Enjoy your comments..Trying to probe the darkness for any evidence is damm disconcerting...unfortunately all we can do is sit and watch and speculate that the ancient gold merchants ( including the Rothschilds and the Chinese, I may add ) are undoubtedly aiding and abetting the desperate CBs as they attempt to avoid debt implosion and desperately keeping the ponzi confidence game which is the market going. As John K. has so astutely noted, mathematics will in the end, as George Soros reflexivity theory, invoke unpleasant justice on a world gone debt made, financing short term gains all the while stripping the earths natural and human capital of its wealth and resiliency.

One day the dominoes will fall as I believe Soros writes about in his Alchemy of Finance and relfexivity theories...the musical chairs game will come to an matter what rabbit Clinton or any other American President can pull out of the hat. The confidence game will end and will undoubtedly make Albany look like a picnic. I suspect they will riot in the streets of Tokyo some day soon as their life savings begin to evaporate given the assets of real estate, stocks and treasuries begin to devalue. The tidal wave will wash over on to the shores of the US which has thus far benefited from a loss of confidence in Asian markets and it will behoove any Federal Reserve Chairman to stop the wave and stop the explosion that will come from a soaring US debt exarcerbated by soaring interest rates at home. Can the US avoid such a confidence calamity...I don't know, but I don't believe so....even the world's greatest military can't go against the laws of physics!

I honestly believe that the Roths and Soros are pleasantly playing along with the game they know is unsustainable in the end, as Soros knew the Tiger currencies would become, in the end...misconceptions of reality George says. Indeed, could we not have a greater misconception today than to believe that somehow $5.4 trillion in outstanding US debt is "sustainable", that economic indicators and statistics are not cooked, that there is not inflation in the US economy ( but in the stock market ) , that the Japanese and Chinese hold vast amounts of US treasuries and debt and who could exercise the death blow to US debt bubble in an instant?

Noam Chomsky has written books about such subjects: "Necessary Illusions: Thought Control in Democratic Societies" and "Manufacturing Concent".... I hope we aren't too naiive.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:47 - ID#263259)
@nearly nowhere
Que: You wouldn't be "Heavy Thompson" would you? The guy who used to run a delivery route into Hanoi some years back, carrying a large variety of very heavy loads? I thought the F-4 was your type truck?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 17:52 - ID#333131)
Honest, The US State Dept. is brain dead and things are going to sweep by us if they don't wake up. We need a policy other than pro Israel, and guard the oil and otherwise try to put out fires. Where are the new thinkers anyway?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:00 - ID#386276)
Solid selling drives the Dow down 100pts from its future's driven rally high.
Futures related buying in the last half hour stops market from slumping lower.

There were some sizeable parcels of shares being sold in the majors today.
Many of these parcels were well over the half million dollar mark.
This distribution shows the smart hands leaving the markets.
The potential for a solid down day tomorrow has been set.

If the Globex is pushed up again prior to opening,
I would expect a similar move tomorrow.

This pattern of pushing the nightly futures up,
Only to have the market sold off during the trading day,
Is the only way that large players can exit the market, gracefully,
Without taking the indexes down.

It has always been my contention, that the reason they introduced,
The early opening of the futures markets,
Was to be able to lead the markets down gently.
Like a tether on the nose-ring of the bull.
This was observed during the period of 13th - 16th Oct.
We can all observe what happened after this period.

The prices on the S&P options are very one sided.
A 980 NOV CALL is 1.60. A 870 NOV PUT is 8.00!
This is with the S&P500 at 920 - amid way position.
With the VIX taking off skywards and very expensive puts,
We can all guess were the Dow is heading.

With Korea, Hong Kong and Japan under attack,
And eastern Europe turning weak,
There is good potential for a serious down day in Asia.
This would accelerate the timeframe for the coming fall on the Dow.
The potential for a very serious down move, breaking to new lows is very high.
If we have a savage down day,
I will speculate that the following day, the Markets will crash.

At the bottom of the crash,
The window of opportunity will arise,
To purchase your favorite gold shares at unbelievable prices.

My short equities/ long gold strategy,
Will then be changed, to a long gold position.
The profits expected from leveraged put positions,
Will be buried deep into long term leveraged gold positions.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:06 - ID#26793)

Fred Filskov
(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:11 - ID#341234)
Predictions on Gold:

Who wants to hear what is really going to happen in the gold market? The answer is more simple than you would have thought.

First, this talk about a conspiracy having to do with oil is ridiculous. People who believe in conspiracies are paranoid. There is no gold conspiracy just like there was no UFO over Phoenix.

What is going on is a smart market play. SOME of the central banks DO want to sell SOME of their gold. They also want to get the best price possible. How will they accomplish these goals?

1. Just like any other market, the gold marked is controlled by supply and demand. Emotions may override this in the short term, but supply and demand will always rule in the long term.
2. When gold was $400/oz., production and exploration were going crazy. The supply would have soon been increased to meet the demand. The central banks knew that if this happened, they would never be able to unload some gold at a decent price.
3. The central banks have time on their side. In order to reduce the supply, they simply have to reduce the price for now. To keep the price down, all they have to do is sell some token amounts of gold or, even better, just announce that they are going to sell.
4. If they can hold the price down to about $300/oz. for at least 2 more years, the production by the mining industry will decrease about 30%. There will be a lot of consolidation and mine closings. Exploration will cease.
5. Once people realize that the demand has exceeded the supply, the price of gold will rocket to about $500/oz. This is when the central banks will come in and save the day by selling some of their reserves over a period of about 4 years.
6. After the 4 years, the mining industry will be stronger than ever and will have increased production enough to cover the demand. The price will equalize at around $400/oz.

What does this mean to the small investor? Buy gold stocks or funds over the next few months. Make sure you buy large companies that can survive for a while at these low gold prices. Also, use some dollar cost averaging.

Why buy now when the big returns will not happen for at least 2 years? First, there is nothing else to do with your money anyway. The stock and bond markets are going to be lame over the next few years. Second, you must hold at least 18 months to reduce your capital gains tax. Finally, it is not going to get much cheaper, and where else are you going to have a shot at a 100% return over the next 3 years?

( Fred Filskov, November 1997 )

(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:14 - ID#222167)
LGB ( alias Karlito ) : Another flaw in your character, LGB, you promised us you were finished posting here at Kitco. You broke your word. You came back as a schitzophrenic LGB -- Karlito. Do us a favor, and be truthful the next time. No one likes a liar.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:20 - ID#30116)
@Off topic question
Speed -- Can you ftp with IE 4.0? I've read all of this advertising BS on how great Internet Explorer 4.0 is, but can you upload files with it? ( My guess, probably not )

(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:23 - ID#262163)
@Spew Control

Fred Filskov:

Oh wise, sagatious one, a million gratitudes. Can I kiss your feet? Polish your shoes? Thanks for being the ONE to come and grace us with your indisputable insight. Now that we know the truth, we can all go home and retire.
We don't have to think anymore everyone, our Savior has set us straight.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:25 - ID#244291)
Whoever thinks that DOW, S&P have normal free market type closing since 24th Oct is naive..Tons of manipulation in NY, for sure. Citizens life savings and National future is at stake. The Politicians are all impotent and would wag the tail for few crumbs.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:28 - ID#37295)

Do you really want "Intel Inside"?


CNET NEWS.COM Dispatch * 771,803 Subscribers * Monday, November 10, 1997





 ( Bug story )

 ( Net reaction )

The Net is buzzing about a new Pentium bug that could "freeze" hundreds of

thousands of PCs worldwide or even be used to bring down a company's

servers. An Intel watchdog says he saw the flaw months ago--so why didn't

the company return his calls?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:28 - ID#249192)
D.A. and Arden.

Milhouse posted Princeton Forecasts on 11/7, 21:46.

Silver remains the object of insider manipulation, with stockpiles being artificially lowered."

To me this means COMEX inventory is being shifted elsewhere, is still available and the pending shortage is not real.

Your comments please.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:42 - ID#250121)
some of my best friends are.......
2 minutes only:

TED G'day

Goldbug 23 G'day, I am mortified that you read my 00:14 as me personally being agin the US as I had no such intention. My purpose was to allude to the difference in PERCEPTION between the US/UN ( and i hasten to add NZ etc ) viewpoint of a mad Saddam Insane, and the viewpoint of Arab countries, and the wider Islamic community. The sabre-rattling by Saddam is seen as justifiable defensive posturing in the face of bellicose American ( Not UN ) antagonism. Just understand that to many many peoples the UN is a thin cover/mask for US imperialism.

I know that many of our American friends will profess to mistrust the UN ( especially when on exercise in the US ) and may not believe this Arab and/or Islamic viewpoint, but it exists. Gold bugs should not be unaware of this.

ANZUS is merely resting,


(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:43 - ID#57232)
@seeing the future dimly
korondy: Thanks for reposting JohnK's Currency Chaos and Financial Collapse. I do need to read it more carefully.
korondy, and Marcus: I think one of the most important things we need to do as investors ( some Kitcoites are traders with excellent short-term insight ) is to estimate the time scale of the events that are unfolding. It is very clear to me that the Kondratiev wave cycle of about 54 years cannot be ignored. As I believe you said, Marcus, collapse of "paper" is inevitiable. I agree, because debt has now become part of the general belief system of the western world. The shift back to "hard" assets will be very painful when it happens - requiring a switch in belief systems, and the realization that our leaders all over the world have either been deceived ( like us ) or have been lying to us. The world is going to go through a massive shift back to more fundamental concepts of truth and faith and a demand for honesty from our leaders.
In my opinion, compromise deals with basket currencies utilizing gold and the dollar and other currencies may not work. I think the corporate analogy might apply -- only a complete replacement of upper level management with a "turnaround team" will work. Don't see evidence of that yet in the world scene.
The only question in my mind ( without that austere "turnaround team" ) is when and how. Several years ago, we had the Orange county retirement fund fiasco, the Mexican crisis, and the Barings crisis. Now, whole governments are involved. To make matters more worrisome, the ElNino has surfaced to weaken an overly inflated SE Asia, just at the time the dollar rose, compounding the problem in that part of the world.
I think what is critical to the "when" is whether North America, mainland China and the Western European nations escape the current financial crisis ie -- will there be another "wave" or is this "it". My guess is that things will get worse during the next 6-12 months, and not better, unless the ElNino mysteriously abates.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:49 - ID#255190)
@ Fred
We saw it last time.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:53 - ID#255190)
@Nick@ Aussie

Nick how's the PREM doing these days with regard to these attempts to create demand. When do you think people will start to see this pattern and no longer buy into it? My geuss is the third time around. This being the second use of this strategy.

Mr. Mick
(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:57 - ID#345321)
Nick, everyone knows you are going to make a killing. You don't have to rub it in.
Us little guys will just have to be content with what we have.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 18:59 - ID#57232)
@Work some of my best friends are also ...!
Aurator: Your point about the Arab situation is a good one. Saddam Hussein may be crazy or inept, but the Arabs are fed up with the US/Israel situation. If the US attacks Saddam without letting him do something bad first, we ( as Americans ) will have lost much support.
However, I did get a kick out of what Madeline Albright did to Netyanahu behind closed doors! She's got spunk, even if she is not as smooth as her predecessors.
The political issue in that part of the world is a bit more complicated than the Israeli's being the "bad guys". I think part of the problem is that there are still many arab nations who still want Israel out of the way, and have forgotten Israel's military achievements. Israel I think has made a major strategic mistake trying to control the Palestinian section, where security is probably nearly impossible. They would have been much better off doing what the former Israeli premier had promised. Sometimes major compromises must be made to ensure peace, even if they appear distasteful.
I've got to go home now -- always enjoy your posts!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:00 - ID#255190)

No quibbling with your assessment that we have bottomed. My point was that a $15 drop from this level to $295 is very little downside risk in comparison with the actualized losses that have already affected many overseas. Its just a prelude to our turn. We aren't there yet but will be shortly. A potential 5% drop compared to 10, 15, 20 or 25% drop in equities and subsequent stampede into, among other things, gold and silver. When said stampede appears the 5% drop in gold will INSTANTLY be erased and handy profits all around for the early birds ( if they care to sell at all ) .

(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:08 - ID#255190)

Actually Mr.Mick, I was hoping that after Nick made his millions he would condescend to teach those 'umble folk among us how to play that game.

Though Nick I've got to say that your morning post about having a tropical pool 8 meters from your computer is just to cruel. It makes us all want to move to Oz and live ( after the options/futures lessons ) in your neighborhood.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:10 - ID#255190)
URL for world markets

Can somebody post this again so I can keep tabs on the sneaky Nikkie. Thanks.

Crystal Ball
(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:14 - ID#287367)

(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:15 - ID#347457)
Alan, try

(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:16 - ID#206358)
Allen(usa)....this one?
try this :

(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:17 - ID#347457)
sorry, that previous post was for you. Heck I can't do anything right - that includes spelling your name :- (

(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:27 - ID#206358)
Wet morning,been rainning last 20 hours,nearly!

Refered to the chinese hong kong papers,there was small rush to the gold demand last 2 weeks.But most dued to the lower price ( u.s 310 per oz ) .Not because they looked for the "save have'!Maybe,when the situations getting worsen,they will turn to the metals?Not sure....!

Heard from the experience dealers about pouring out tons of physical from THAI side.But no one confirmed it......

Still wondering the contrictions between THAI AND HONGKONG PEOPLES towards "gold" side for food ,the other for save haven...!


(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:28 - ID#432148)
Aurator: I understand now what you meant, thanks. I should also add as a Libertarian I am normally opposed to most foreign "adventures" of the US. Have always also admired the spunk and fighting abilities of you Anzus types ;- )

(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:31 - ID#28594)
@Paper.Debt.Background.Please Read
The SDR: Some Facts, Some Surmises, Some Surprises
Lesson #1: Ya Gotta Do What Ya Gotta Do...

At conception, a single SDR was equal to a single US dollar.A Canadian briefing paper for G-7 Halifax referred to this event, and gave a raison d etre for it  replace the less than reliable dollar.

For those of us who are rather fond of the USD, who have earned it and banked it and carried it throughout our lives, the above statement sounds like a kind of heresy. What we must hold in mind is the old adage, Needs must. And contemplate the time during the Kennedy Administration when we issued our bonds denominated in Swiss francs.

Robert Roosa was John Kennedys Undersecretary for Monetary Affairs, a mild, bespectacled former Rhodes scholar who spoke in long sentences. Roosa began to devise what he called perimeter defenses to stop a possible run on the dollar. He generated a gentlemens agreement atmosphere with the foreign banks: the dollars could pile up there, but they wouldnt be taken to New York and presented for gold.
Roosa devised special issues of Treasury bonds, denominated in Swiss francs, which sopped up some dollars. The Treasury would issue a Roosa bond; that is, it would take in the foreign dollars and promise to repay at some future date in Swiss francs. ( The device worked, but it was costly: the Swissies appreciated so much it took a billion extra dollars. Roosa also arranged some swap lines with other central banks. If there were too many dollars for the French franc or the Dutch guilder, the Treasury would take them home, owe the lender who held them, and guarantee any losses if the dollar went down.
By using the examples of Volkswagens and French wines ( he means things we Americans printed money to buy--our privilege as the key currency ) I intend something concrete and therefore easy to understand. The dollars that went out and got to be too many were not all spent on consumer high living, nor were the spenders goo-time-Charleys living it up at the Tour d Argent in Paris. The spenders were American multinational companies, with familiar names like IBM and Exxon, that were developing subsidiaries abroad, as well as the Pentagon. The defenders of the policies that weakened the dollar could say that Germany and Japan had no military umbrella of their own; we were paying for it.
The British, in their long reign as the Bank with the currency, chose to defend the currency. The Americans had other priorities. Adam Smith, Paper Money p.140, 1981.

This ( look at the date of the book, 1981 ) before Forex, derivatives, on ad infinitum. Can you begin to imagine the plague of dollars out there? Can you begin to see why NOTHING is beneath consideration, when it comes to devising new perimeter defenses? And hold in mind that the success of your MoneyMaignot line is dependent on it being unknown, hidden....No Cause For Alarm...Everything is bumping along nicely.
Cleaning out the Aegean stables looks like easy fun in comparison.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:35 - ID#215208)
For those of you that are skeptical of the discussions regarding manipulation and conspiracy, let me repost an excerpt from a WSJ article which Speed posting early this morning:

"In January, with the price of its precious metals falling, Denver-based Stillwater hedged its bets by agreeing to sell about 30% of the platinum it produced and 88% of the palladium it produced at fixed prices through 1998. The hedge contracts were entered into with Goldman, Sachs & Co., British bank NM Rothschild & Sons Ltd., and Iselin, N.J. catalyst manufacturer Engelhard Corp."

Once these prices were locked in by the Rothschild's and friends, the price of palladium sky-rocketed. Coincidence? Excellent vision and foresight? I don't think so.

SWC is a small producer, but big enough to be worth the trouble. Done this way, large purchases can be made without disturbing the market prices in the slightest. I'm sure if one had the interest, it would be easy to find other examples where producers hedged with Rothschild-controlled companies at prices they considered very good, only to find that the market prices magically took off immediately thereafter.

Maybe we shouldn't be so critical of the judgement of the SWC's of the world.

I wonder who the major investors are in the Tiger Fund. Isn't this the one who supposedly cornered the market on palladium?

So how do we hitch a ride? One way is to keep our eyes open for all signs that major financial powers such as the Rothschild's are quietly obtaining control of current and future supplies of the metals. After, of course, beating the price down into the basement. Let's keep an open and ongoing dialog on this subject.

Oh yes, palladium. How long will the price stay up? Prabably just as long as SWC and others are delivering under their hedge contracts. Then the price will mysteriously drop. Do we really expect the mining companies will be allowed to benefit from this manipulation?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:42 - ID#29082)
Panda: IE 4.0 does FTP rather well. I use it at work over an ISDN line and it works.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:44 - ID#344308)

the new thinkers are dead. jfk, the pope who lived 90 days, the congressman who headed the investigation into the '29 crash.

jfk was going to abolish the fed. fact.

the pope was going to purge the old guard freemasons from the vatican. fact.

the congressman was assassinated and no motive or suspect was ever found.

all the attempts to change the status quo have been met with
terminal situations.

you don't tug on super-mans cape, you don't squirt in the wind, and you
don't mess around with bald-headed al greenspam-----

'98 spring and summer weather prognostications are completed........
hot and dry enough to cause the highest prices EVER for grains........

2 gold call options for $30 to $50 per premium per month. you cans stay &
play when all others have cashed-in their chips.

cherokee!; ) singer-of-the-song-of-the-tree------

(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:45 - ID#28594)

Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner. It's been a very Monday, Monday. The first part of this stuff was posted on Wed, 11/5/97 at 13:03; 2nd part on Sun, 11/9/97 at 11:10; at Carl and Allen's request I reposted 11/10/97 at 08:55 ( 1 ) and 09:04 ( 2 ) . I'm embarrased to post them again because I think I'll irritate the heck out of somebody. Biut if you can't recapture them, I a ) e-mail, b ) fax or c ) sigh, repost

Strad Master
(Mon Nov 10 1997 19:48 - ID#250297)
Big question!
PUETZ OR GSC ( or anyone else ) : I've heard it often said, both here and elsewhere, that the stock market Bull ( pun intended ) must continue endlessly to DOW 10,000 or more because of the constant and automatic inflow of 401K and Keogh money. I know all the rasons why the markets are at unprecedented valuations and how and why stocks are likely to topple from here. However, what would happen to all that inflowing money? How is is supposed to affect a market decline? Would it eventually just dry up? If so, via what mechanism would that happen? Anyway, you get the drift of my question. I suspect you must have figured all this into your equations. I just haven't seen that aspect of the scenario addressed. Many thanks.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:01 - ID#26793)
Strad Master: I have always been suspicious of that 401K money. It is my feeling that the allocation of the maximum amount to the plan has left many investors strapped for cash and unable to satisfy their lifestyle requirements. To keep their former lifestyle intact they use the handy credit card, paying the 20% interest and justifying the payment by thinking it will be offset by the 34% gains on their stocks. In my opinion, this is the prime reason for 1.3 million personal bankruptcies this year. This investment tactic will stop as the market falls. Future 401K allocations will be stopped or reduced.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:02 - ID#394276)
We hail economic Butchers like Soros that are destroying lives of honest working people. Enclosing some news about Soros outside the US Media. Time Magazine had him on the cover as 'the great philanthropist and a saint". Please read the following reports
[Source: {Ming Pao}, Hongkong, 10/27/97]


"Soros Attacked Hong Kong Dollar Last Week," is a headline in the Oct. 27 edition of the
Hongkong-based, Chinese-language newspaper, {Ming Pao.} A source told the paper early last week
that Soros had sold off tremendous amounts of Hongkong dollars and is one of the major speculators
against the currency.

The same source reported that Hong Shang bank was one of several Hongkong banks lending money
to feed the speculators' attack, with the aim of penalizing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

Instead, the paper reports, the banks were penalized by the HK Monetary Authority, which raised
interbank lending rates extremely high ( 300% at one point ) . Last week Hongshang's General Manager
said his bank would not lend to speculators intent on attacking the Hongkong dollar.

The article reminds its readers that, only last month, Soros told the IMF Annual Meeting in
Hongkong that, with enormous reserves backing it up, the local currency did not face a potential
crisis. {Ming Pao} says, who would have guessed that he would lead the attack within the month?


According to Kristian Nystroem, Singapore correspondent of the Danish {Jyllands-Posten}, the
Taiwan Securities & Futures Commission has initiated formal investigation into reports that Soros'
Quantum Fund, acting through the futures market in Singapore's SIMEX exchange, triggered the
two-day collapse of the Taiwan Stock Exchange on last Friday and this Monday.

The National Bank suspended the peg of the currency to the dollar late Monday, and since, the
market has stabilized. Market insiders report that Taiwan had been a major source of liquidity flows
into both Hongkong and into China itself in recent years. "Mr. Soros has put extraordinary pressure
on our market via the SIMEX," a spokesman for the SFC told {Jyllands-Posten}.

[Source: wires] Oct. 7--


Moving east, in search of countries where he is not yet universally recognized as a ``moron,''
megaspeculator George Soros has stopped in Latvia, en route to Russia. Speaking Monday in Riga,
he attacked Belarus President Aleksander Lukashenka as running a ``presidential dictatorship.''

The Soros Foundation closed its operations in Belarus, after being charged with evading millions of
dollars in taxes. ``We shall announce shortly that we intend to continue the support of civic society
and individuals from outside Belarus,'' Soros said at his press conference.

[Source: The Star, Kuala Lumpur, Oct. 2; Chile's {Estrategia}, Oct. 1; Santiago Television Nacional
de Chile, 30 Sep 97]


The Malaysian Prime Minister gave quite a lesson in economics and politics to the representatives of
23 countries and economic zones from Asia and the Americas attending the 12th meeting of the
Pacific Economic Cooperation Council ( PECC ) in Santiago, Chile.

Over 1,000 people were reported to have attended Chilean President Eduardo Frei's inaugural speech
at the conference attended by government officials, academics, and "leading businessmen" from
China, the United States, Japan, and Chile. Mahathir and Brazil's President Fernando Henrique
Cardoso were the two lead speakers at the event.

Reviewing, as he did in Hongkong, the destruction wreaked by free trading in currencies, Mahathir
here developed his "prosper-thy-neighbor" argument as it applies to foreign {businessmen}, as
opposed to {speculators}, telling them that they, too, are hurt by the chaos which they wreak.

Before concluding with the broadside against free trade itself ( see above ) , Mahathir told the
conference attendees: "No government can sit by and watch the wealth of the country being siphoned
off.... "Currency trading is said to be 20 times the size of world trade. Yet what is there to show for
this huge trade in terms of wealth creation for the international community?

The only people who made or lost money are the traders. They contribute nothing to the well-being
of the peoples of the planet. "A few dollars for charity is not enough to compensate for the
destruction of the economies of not just a few people or a country, but whole regions....

The reality is that the currency manipulators have pushed back the economy of South-East Asia by
10-15 years. The reality is that innocent people have been impoverished by their action. The reality is
that they seem able to manipulate at will and with impunity.

"The per capita income of Malaysians has been reduced by them from US$5,000 to US$3,600 in
two months when it took 12 years to achieve. "The North-controlled media openly gloated and tried
to put the blame on allegedly incompetent Southeast Asian leaders.

Blatantly they tried to get Southeast Asian leaders to blame each other, to break their unity. Any
criticism of the currency traders would immediately result in further devaluation of all the Southeast
Asian currencies....

"What is the meaning of democracy if the elected leaders of a country have to submit to the wishes
of self-appointed currency traders from other countries? "What is the meaning of democracy if
freedom is denied the popularly-elected leaders to manage their own country's economy?

"What is democratic about impoverishing poor people in poor countries in order to force them to
accept the dictates of the avaricious in the rich North? "There is no democracy and there is no
freedom. Free speech is only for the rich and their media. The rest have no voice.

"For hundreds of years, Southeast Asia was colonized and exploited. After independence, the people
had worked hard to rebuild their countries. It was a lot of sweat, toil, and tears and not miracles
which built their economies. "Most of their people are still poor. They need many more years of toil
and tears and more sweat. But much of their sacrifices have come to nought, because a few very rich
currency manipulators and short-sellers decided to rape these countries under the guise of free trade.

"Currency trading and short-selling only benefit the few speculators and those who invest in their
funds. These people pay no tax to the countries from which they make huge profits and which they
impoverish. They are shadowy figures whose trading is far from open.... "Exchanging money to
finance trade is fine, but trading money as a commodity is unnecessary and immoral ...

If we want to see world trade grow, then we should not support the abuse of free trade caused by the
trade in currencies as a commodity. They are not commodities. They are merely tokens with no
intrinsic value but are meant only to facilitate trade....

"I would like to suggest that we do away with trade in currency as a commodity. I would like to
suggest that currencies should be linked to the economic indices of the countries concerned. I would
like to propose a return to rationality rather than self-serving sentiments."

[Source: Vatchara Caroonsantikul, {The Nation}, Bangkok, 9/16/97]


In light of Soros' repeated denial that he was a major player in the Thai baht collapse, it is worth
noting this report in {The Nation}, the most Anglophile paper in Thailand, which has repeatedly
defended Soros, the IMF, and speculation, generally.

It reports that a "financial source indicated that Soros and the international hedge funds spent about
U.S. $10 billion to attack the baht on May 15, $3 billion of the money coming from the Soros Fund
and $1 billion from the Tiger Fund.... Soros, who heads the Soros Fund and Quantum Fund, and the
international hedge funds did not have the baht in hand at the time they shorted the Thai currency,
largely selling the baht for the dollar with contracts to deliver in 3-months' time....

The central bank used hard-ball tactics to deny speculators a big enough supply of baht to unwind
their positions....

The battle has produced a dilemma for both sides in that Soros and the hedge funds cannot lay their
hands on the baht to unwind their positions, while the central bank has run out of dollars to settle its
forward obligations."

The report also says that J.P. Morgan was negotiating between the two sides, to get a compromise,
but that the effort failed. "The source said the talks broke down after J.P. Morgan indicated that it
would charge the central bank 0.5% over Libor for the $6 billion syndicated loans," which would
have facilitated the deal.

[Source: Op-Ed by Mahathir bin Mohamad, {WSJ/USA}, 9/23/97]


headlines a guest commentary appearing in both the U.S. and European editions of today's {Wall
Street Journal.} The article is a more detailed explication of what Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir
sees as the increasing decoupling of financial activities, such as currency trading, from real trade in
goods and services, and the increasingly dominant, distorting and destructive role such financial
activities have on the global economy.

"There is no doubt that international commerce today ... has gotten better because there has been a
willingness to recognize the faults of certain practices and to make the necessary corrections. For
example, imperial nations once had trade with their colonies reserved for themselves.

The British called it 'Imperial Preference.' Yet Britain today would be laughed at if it laid claim to a
system that was once legitimate and even glorified."

Trade today is more free and the playing field more level, but "today's contestants are not of the
same class, and free trade is not yet fair trade." For that, corrective measures are required, such as
the busting up of the Rockefeller oil monopoly in the U.S. "Something legal thus became illegal." Of
course, crooks abound in business, for example, Ivan Boesky and Michael Milken.

"The point here is that when something legitimate is abused and people get hurt, governments must
outlaw such practices. "Currency trading is an extension of money-changing ... to finance trade. The
money-changers have a right to a return on their business. But today's currency trading has nothing
to do with trade in goods or services.

The currency itself has become a commodity and is traded as such. It is said that the value of the
currency trade is 20 times that of world trade in goods. But apart from the enrichment of the
currency traders, what is there to show for this huge trade?... It can be abused as no other trade can.

While regions can be bankrupted by just a few people whose only objective is to enrich themselves
and their rich clients." Mahathir then details the impact of currency devaluation on debt, imports,
exports, investments, income. "The cost of living rises, especially for the poor, making them even
poorer, and in turn making more people poor.... "Those who think that manipulated currency
devaluations are normal have obviously never run countries, never understood the meaning of
poverty, never appreciated the desire of poor countries and poor people to rise above their miserable

All they can see is the money they can make for themselves. That the poor have to pay the price is
irrelevant. These manipulators have no conscience. "This is why exchange rates should certainly not
be manipulated in the interest of unscrupulous profiteers. World trade requires currencies to be
exchanged, to be sure. If fixing a rate is unsuitable, then the exchange rate should be linked to
economic indices. Additionally, the people who move huge funds must make their dealings open and

When currency value appreciates or depreciates by a certain percentage, the traders concerned must
be stopped. "Is it wrong to suggest these rules? Regulating trade and finance is not new. When the
result of trade is so lopsided as to hugely enrich some by impoverishing the others, then it is time that
we examine the morality of such trading practices. "As for the stock market, the original objective of
raising capital has all but been forgotten.

The prices of the shares bear no relationship to the performance of the companies. And so we see
shares of non-performing companies being pushed up by manipulators while those of very successful
companies are deliberately devalued and depressed.... "It is a fact that fund managers with huge sums
of money can push the shares up or down as it suits them.

In insider trading the people concerned have inside information that virtually guarantees them a
profit.... "But what do you call outsiders who know that their own transactions will have an impact
on the share price? Are they any less unethical than the 'insider' traders?... "Speculation is fair.
Speculators usually rely on intelligent guesses and invest or divest accordingly. But manipulators take
no risk because they are responsible for moving the market and making sure they will not lose. The
vast sums of money at their command enable them to do this.

"Short selling was invented by investors to enable them literally to make money out of no capital of
their own. But, not satisfied with that, they invented the system of borrowing shares from banks and
brokers, and other undertakings by banks to make the shares available if they have to deliver. As a
result, investors and fund managers with no share in their names are able to sell and buy the same
shares repeatedly with just sufficient money to pay the fee for borrowing from the bank.

"With these self-serving systems the big players can wreak havoc in the stock market. And that is
precisely what they did to the share markets of Southeast Asia. "Now anyone trying to stop this
profiteering will be roundly condemned by the manipulators and the proponents of currency trading
for not understanding the market. We may not understand the markets, but we know what these
profiteers are doing to our country's economy.

"We are told that our actions will frighten away investors. What about us? We are frightened too. If
one or two people can wreck the economy of a whole region, an economically powerful region at
that, shouldn't we be frightened by these market operations? Are we expected to sit and watch the
destruction of our country? "We welcome foreign investments. We even welcome speculators. But
we don't have to welcome share- and financial-market manipulators. We need these manipulators as
much as travelers in the good old days needed highwaymen.

"I am taking a big risk saying all this. The great advocates of open societies only see the benefits to
themselves from such openness. They and their operations are not so open. In fact they are shady
and shadowy. And when anyone criticizes them, like authoritarian rulers they punish with all the
means in their power. People who take money from the poor do not become philanthropists even if
they give away a little for their self-serving pet projects."

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:02 - ID#333131)
cherokee, I hear your song. Keep your roots down deep.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:07 - ID#427357)
THE DINES LETTER - November 10, 1997

Internationally acclaimed market analyst, James Dines, shares his insights and foresights with us about current currency crisis.

Asia is awash in hammered & cascading currencies. The deluge of devaluations in South East Asia is spilling over into other countries on the opposite side of the globe -- and will wreak havoc in world stock markets. The Currency Contagion continues unabated...

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:09 - ID#344308)
@history-101------------look at the past to tell the future

there is a 2k year old book that teaches how to
handle the money changers, and where they reside
on the scale of life.

back to ya later tuesday ted---------gtdoaiwbfu

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:09 - ID#244291)
The House of Rot has pillaged and raped National wealth and esteem with their evil Manipulations

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:11 - ID#394276)
vronsky, What goes around comes around

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:13 - ID#386276)
Mr. Mick
I wasn't trying to brag, I was more explaining my position.
I don't have huge amounts of anything.
I hope to make a small fortune not millions.

I currently hold 15 Dec700 and 3 Dec850 puts - $5k imput.
I have a lot of small positions in OZ puts total $15k.
Many people on this site, would have more in physical gold, than I have in positions.

I have just taken the position that this crash, would be a once in a lifetime opportunity,
And have spent a year studying 10hrs a day for this to happen.
I the only gold I own is on my ring finger.
Hopefully if my hard work pays off,
I will have the privilege, of joining the ranks of the many knowledgeable goldbugs,
Who live here on Kitco.
If it doesn't pay off ,
And I am wrong then I will pull out, and salvage my capital.

I am simply like many here, trying to do the best I can, to increase my lot in life.

I have not noticed any intervention the last few days,
Just the positioning of the large players.
I have a feeling that we will only see two waves,
The next one will be the Tsunami.
Of course fed intervention can change all plans.

With the current positions of the PREM, VIX, TRIN, TICK.
I would presume that we have already started down on this second wave.

I don't know whether you follow our SPI,
But that comment I posted earlier on E-wave support/resistance, is spot on.
The levels that are mentioned fit perfectly, with Dow/S&P etc when converted.
This clarifies my statement of lock-step.
Last night our SPI topped at 2559 and turned into the next wave down.
Currently at 2532 and falling.

Your recent articles, I have cut and pasted.
Due to their insight and clarity.
Thank You

Alice on avid has just installed MSIE 4.
Go and read her comments from last night.
Took 4hrs to install, plus a couple of techno's, to get it up and running.
I too was ready to upgrade to it but will wait or go to Netscape.
Market internals look shocking.
What's your view.

Why don't you go back to using you real alias.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:13 - ID#394276)
Cherokee, Couldnt agree with you MORE

Long Gone
(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:19 - ID#310159)
@ I'm back!!!!!!!!
Hi kids! LGB might be gone but LG is baaaaack!! How much money have YOU made in my absence ( haha )

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:22 - ID#217260)
@ orlando
ons, everything to do with oil prices

By Charley Reese
of The Sentinel Staff

Published in The Orlando Sentinel, November 9, 1997

It's about the price of oil. It's not about terrorism or weapons of mass

The Iraqis are right. The United States and Great Britain have unjustly
prolonged the embargo against Iraq, which has resulted in the deaths of
thousands of children and the elderly. United Nations officials and
humanitarian organizations say that, not just the Iraqis.

The power structures in both countries have large economic interests in
Kuwait and in other places where there is oil. Iraq has more known oil
reserves than any other country in the world except Saudi Arabia. Some oilmen
even think that Iraq's reserves are bigger than those of the Saudis. If
Iraq's oil is allowed to come back on the world's markets, the price of oil
will go down.

That's what it's all about.

Hans Blix, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which for six
years has been overseeing and inspecting the destruction of Iraq's nuclear
capability, has stated publicly that the IAEA is ``sure Iraq has no remaining
infrastructure for nuclear weapons production.''

But, Blix said, he can't certify that,because the United States and Great
Britain disagree with other U.N. Security Council members on the definition
of ``capability.'' Presumably, the U.S. position is that Iraq should execute
all its engineers and scientists and destroy all its computers. That's all
that's left of Iraq's nuclear program, according to Blix.

Use common sense. Iraq is a small country. Do you think that on-the-ground
inspectors working for six years could not find a large store of weapons if
such existed? Do you really think that the Iraqi government doesn't want the
embargo lifted? The U.N. resolution doesn't authorize prying into every
aspect of Iraq's military -- only into its weapons of mass destruction.

The United States and Great Britain have just employed the Orwellian
technique of double-speak to keep the sanctions on Iraq. They keep demanding
that the inspectors prove a negative, which is impossible. Can I swear to you
that Martians don't exist? No. I can only tell you that I can't find any
evidence that they do.

The legitimate question is: Is Iraq a threat? If the United States did not
consider it a threat before the Gulf War, with its war machine intact, why
does it now consider it a threat with its infrastructure destroyed, its
people ill and hungry, its middle class destroyed, its weapons capability
destroyed and continuously monitored?

No, it's oil. That's probably what's behind President Clinton's latest
foreign-policy fiasco, slapping sanctions on Sudan. There is oil in the
Sudan, but apparently the current government will not honor the deal made
with an American oil company by the previous government.

This is really interesting. The previous government was run by adictator. It
was engaged in the same civil war the current government is engaged in. The
previous dictator was said by human-rights organizations to be about as bad a
chap as bad chaps can be. But there was one difference.

The U.S. government loved the previous dictator. They didn't think that his
conduct of the civil war warranted sanctions. In fact, the United States
would rush warplanes to the area any time someone looked cross-eyed at its
favorite dictator. When its favorite dictator was in power, a friend of mine
lived in the country and reported that Standard Oil of California had found
what appeared to be large oil deposits. This was later acknow-ledged by the

But after he was deposed, the United States began to say Sudan was a
terrorist state and that its conduct of the civil war was terrible. Funny,
the United States had never previously shown much interest in the human
rights of Sudanese ( as it now shows no interest in the human rights of
Chinese and Tibetans, not to mention Palestinians ) .

Oracle Master
(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:24 - ID#237236)

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:26 - ID#348169)
@Belcher and Fred
Belcher your 18:23 post refering to Fred Filskov's 18:11 is just the type of totally negative and derogatory post that intelligent posters at kitco take offense to. Grow up. IF you agree or disagree with any particular post give us some reasoned thought, not your second rate sarcasm. Actually Fred's post is just espousing a theory based on the age old tricks of the greats such as the Rothchilds, as discussed here earlier today.
Fred - Keep posting and don't let rude critism scare you off. Having said that, however, you have quite the discrepancy when you say that, "People who believe in conspiracies are paranoid.", and then your theory involves a conspiracy of the CB's working in tandem. :- )

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:27 - ID#394276)
Big Physical Gold consumption is in Asia not USA, London/NY only is awash with paper hedges and derivates

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:33 - ID#394276)
Poster, Thanks. Your 'Orlando Sentinel' calls spade a spade, That is HONESTY, not the b/s you read in US papers

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:33 - ID#386276)
401k or superannuation funds.

This is one of the most serious deceptions of these markets.
The potential failure of these markets.
Robbing the many ignorant of 50% of their retirement funds.
Is one major Gov't disaster.

The illusion that these funds are safe, is ludicrous.
To have given the money funds access, to superannuation is courting disaster.
One only has to look at the pyramiding, that occurs within the indices.
Where the largest mkt cap, carries the greatest weighting.

This in effect is like what the Gov't is doing with bonds.
Borrow more today to pay back later, tomorrow.
When tomorrow comes to roll it out again.
I believe that the future generations to come will curse the day
That this was allowed to happen.

This illusionary compounding of super is no different.
Than the Gov't going into $55 trillion of debt over the last decade or so.

These actions, are what gives me belief,
That when we come out of this monetary shambles,
That it will resemble 1929 rather than 1987.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:34 - ID#348169)
BTW - I don't even care if Fred was really hepcat - At least the 18:11 attempted to put forth a reasoned position in a polite manner!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:36 - ID#57232)
Mr. Mick: I wouldn't mind if Nick was a millionaire or billionaire. I think it is great that he is telling us how he does it.
You see -- its not how much of a success someone else is -- it is how much of a success you and I are, or will be. Perhaps you will be the one who is the most successful investor at Kitco - later. We are all learning from Nick -- it is up to us to become successful. If you are a success later, would you come back to tell the rest of us how you did it?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:39 - ID#415447)
For 6 years UN Inspectors have been dicking around finding nothing
We cant even fly over our own country for Christ sake, UN Justice is a sham

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:44 - ID#31868)
I don't see the United States having a foreign policy. In the last 37 years the government and by default the American people have done some horrible things. Cuba, Vietnam, the entire Middle East, Africa, Afghanistan, Central America, good grief.

China, good gravy folks. Live and on television, tune in now and watch the students get killed live in the square.

Abandon Taiwan, hang the Japanese out to dry.

Australia who, oh, the guys with beer in oil cans and that fast yacht. And that Crocodile Dundee guy. It's next to Hawaii isn't it?

It is a sad picture. I am sure there is much I have left out, Tibet has already been mentioned.

Meanwhile back at the ranch, the currencies of the world are going down the tanker and America worries about their precious - retirement. Hey did you see MJ on the court last night. Golf, what a game. Gold, what a relic.

I think we can count on a little higher than 33% return for the next 5 years.

Good grief Charlie Brown!

America will get what it deserve in the end from eating a cake that is all icing, deep down not a crumb of cake to find.

Tsung Ming Houtzu
(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:45 - ID#37297)
Zhonggou (CHINA) is trying to mislead the financial world!
Honest ( @Truth ) Ref: Your Date: Mon Nov 10 1997 20:02 Posting:
We hail economic Butchers like Soros that are destroying lives of honest working people. Enclosing some news about Soros outside the US Media. Time Magazine had him on the cover as 'the great philanthropist and a saint". Please read the following reports
[Source: {Ming Pao}, Hongkong, 10/27/97] IS TOTALLY MIS-LEADING! And your title insults our intelligence.

I was gratified in seeing the truly representative newspaper of the Free-Chinese, SING TAU, could NOT be bought-off by Zhonggou to distort the truth -- as was Ming Pao. Whereas we KNOW Mr. Soros is NO Saint, please let the world public consider the following.

Far-Eastern History tells us the Chinese have NEVER won a war against the Japanese throughout the last 2,000 years. Something that I read in the ORACLE article about Japan Between a Rock and a Hardspot reminded me of this historical trivia. Specifically, the following sentence verbatim is particularly relevant:

Japanese banks have accounted for 90 percent of foreign bank lending in Hong Kong, making the Chinese-ruled territory a bigger potential risk than Thailand whose financial troubles have rocked the region.

As we all know it was the Chinese who invented the game of chess. Could the recent chain of events not be the CHESS PLAY OF THE LAST TWO MILLENNIUMS? That via the shrewd machiavellian hand of Chairman Jiang - facilitated by political control over Hong Kong and the financial clout of the Chinese government - the Sino-nation will be instrumental in bringing down the Japanese Banking System. Furthermore, the Chinese financial strength ADROITLY used might be the cause of the run on ALL the currencies in South East Asia. Jiang could have given the patriotic order to his henchmen to SHORT SOUTH EAST ASIAN CURRENCIES ACROSS THE BOARD. Consequently, JAPAN, the heretofore KING OF THE ORIENT, brought to its knees in defeat BY A LOWLY PAWN!

What China could never do militarily, it achieves with financial deft and guile... and makes a tidy monetary profit to boot! And to add a little levity to the CHESS PLAY - as we know Jiang to have a well-developed sense of humor - he has the rumor spread throughout the world that George Soros - the epitome of CAPITALISM - is the culprit shorting all those currencies. Perhaps thats why the Chairman was always smiling during his recent visit to the US.

CHECK-MATE, TOKYO - and Xixie

Miss Honest ( @Truth ) , you hide behind a mantle of innocence, but are really the totalitarian devil you have always been. Please give us a break in not advertising your political nonsense here. Peasants we are not! You may deceive the humble and ignorant of YOUR Zhonggou ( CHINA ) , but NOT in this forum.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:45 - ID#415447)
USA, Please bump off Saddam, we will ALL CHEER, Kids are dying and US is to blame

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:46 - ID#57232)
Jin: Thanks for the post on gold. The news of bank runs in Hong Kong got into US news - barely. I'm wondering if what you spotted is the biginning of what is to come.
Are you and your family ok? The reason I ask is I think things may not be significantly better for 6 months to a year - the time for El Nino to pass. Hope you have reliable access to food. I think Allen ( USA ) said that we in the USA have little experience with shortages -- supermarkets would be empty in less than a month if transportation blocked. Americans in big cities would have a very hard time. Also, many have never learned how to grow crops.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:48 - ID#415447)
Why didnt USA finish Saddam in Gulf War or alteast sought his resignation as terms of our TOTAL DEFEAT

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:53 - ID#394276)
Tsung #37297, Why will China screw their own Customers in SE Asia, Your logic is too warped or from National Enquirer

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:54 - ID#31868)
JTF: NYC would be a mad house. All large cities would be a mad house. The mass exodus alone would wreak havoc as people tried to get to the safety of the "country."

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:57 - ID#401460)
Tsung Ming Houtzu : Thank You.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:57 - ID#394276)
Ned Johnson/Fidelity in Time Mag said "that their target is $9 Trillion savings by Japanese, They have already placed 700+ Million in T-Bills through them"., Dont be biased against the World, The biggest crooks are in NY

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:58 - ID#222167)
Strad Master: The amount of money flowing into 401k's is small compared the the leverage in the financial markets. When speculators try to unload their trillions of dollars of spec positions, it will simply overwhelm 401k buying, corporate buying, plunge protection team buying, and mutual fund buying -- all combuned. Furthermore, once the crash takes place and an economic depression develops, 401k money will virtually disappear. There are 2 reasons: corporations will not have the cash, and neither will individuals.

I'm like Nick. I'm holding my S&P puts to the bitter end. I believe by the end of this week, we will be testing or breaking below support at DJIA 6900-7100. Once 6900 is broken to the downside, it Goodnight Irene, Katie Bar the Door, and Catharsis City -- for stock market bulls!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 20:59 - ID#394276)
Tsung ( whatever ) Post #394276 is for you

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:03 - ID#394276)
Tsung, Please answer WHY WILL CHINA DESTROY THEIR OWN BACKYARD, Are you from House of Rot ?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:03 - ID#31868)
Honest: Why would Head Chinese Weasel murder his own students.

Why do they have a standing army of 120 million.

Why do they kill their own people.

Answer, they don't care. They are not killing people, merely the physical representation of what gets in their way. That is how they think. Period.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:04 - ID#386276)
Oracle Master
Prem is the premium between S&P500 and the closest future i.e. SPZ7.
Tick = ratio of up advances/decliners.
Trin = ratio derived from advancex/declines & up/down volumes, meant to reflect buying/selling pressures on broad market.
VIX = the measure of premium applied to options/futures - the premium weighting applied to Puts/Calls
a 980 Nov call is 1.60.
a 870 Nov put is 8.00
This is with the S&P500 at 920 - amid way position.
The premium here shows that puts are 5 times as expensive as calls.
This premium will cause the VIX index to rise.

For more info try here:

Thank you for your kind words.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:05 - ID#215208)
Tiger and George?
Honest - I noticed in your 20:02 that the Soros Fund and the Tiger Fund teamed up in the attack on the Baht. What is the connection between Soros and Tiger? Do you know? Any connections between Soros and the Rothschild's? You may recall in my 19:35 post that Tiger Fund seems to have played a role in the platinum/palladium squeeze. Now Soros has connections in Russia. How hard would it be for him to engineer the delivery problems re: the Russian white metals? Tiger benefits, the Rothschilds benefit ... it is all starting to add up, and it SMELLS! Help me here people. Am I really being paranoid, or does all this really sound plausible?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:09 - ID#394276)
tolerant1, Why did US have 200 yrs of Slavery,killed Vietnam protestors, Why did Europeans in USA, Canada South America and screwed Natives, Cops Killed Blacks for speeding in the South.etc..etc..

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:12 - ID#394276)
Read below as 400 years of Slavery for Blacks in USA, They were treated worse than Animals while being Kidnapped from their Lands

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:14 - ID#31868)
DJ: In as much as the last fifteen years in the stock market was not a conspiracy, no, rather the same old fiat money figment standard ripoff, the inevitable makret reaction and end will move so hard and swift alot of the master plans if there are any will go poof just like the markets.

Terrible times, bring terrible things. Even greed has prices to pay.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:14 - ID#386276)
Tiger Fund was the buyer of Normandy,
OZ's biggest producer soon to list o/s.
They have just taken up over 10% of Normandy.
They are also the fund reputedly behind the coming silver squeeze.
Target $9.00

It seems as though there is indeed a tangled web.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:16 - ID#394276)
Negative in Language: "Black"Mail, Black Magic etc., Positive Note:White Lie

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:18 - ID#394276)
Goodnite Folks.., Enjoyed the session

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:18 - ID#401460)
ID#394276: Sold any kidneys lately?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:18 - ID#31868)
Honest: I think I portrayed enough. The treatment of Africans in the United States, and the other items you mentioned in your post, I already put into my post the fact that there were other happenings not listed. My point was made.

What's yours.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:18 - ID#201238)
Jan - It really doesn't matter who is taking the metal out of comex. The fact is that someone is removing it. What ever their motive is, isn't my concern because all motives are driven by economics! The metal would not be leaving if it was not 'a good deal'! You don't buy a stock because you think it is a 'bad deal', right? Therefore, the flow of metal into and out of comex is only a window into the economics. My view is that it is leaving because it has a better place to be, whether it is in jewelry or industry or investment, someone is taking it! And that is my point.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:19 - ID#30116)
Nick -- Looking at some of the individual issues like Intel or the SOX index on a weekly or monthly chart, I'm in no 'hurry' to buy anything in those catagories. One other thing that I know for sure. Lot's of people already starting to shop for Christmas. Stores are packed during the weekends and people are spending. Currency crisis or no, Alan G. could get some strong consumer numbers soon. I can hear something like, "There's jus too much cooonsuuumin' goin on out da're!" I think some southern boy said that. :- ) )

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:20 - ID#394276)
You still call them Africans in America, not Americans..G'nite

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:23 - ID#364121)
tolerant1: agree 150%. Been around long enough that smart money
doesnt leave these huge profits on the table. Not for fifteen years let
alone fifteen minutes. When Buffet goes to bonds and the BEARDSTOWN LADIES make the Today show whats left!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:25 - ID#7568)

I have no knowledge as to where the silver which had been in the Comex warehouses is going, but it most certainly is going. It can only be going to one of two places. Either the metal is being withdrawn to meet physical demand from industry or the metal is being withdrawn by speculators looking for a corner.

If the metal is disappearing into the industrial ozone then it is gone goodbye and the depletion of inventories of the Comex is the sign that the supply/demand deficit which has been in place for about 7 years is about to cause a major price dislocation.

If the speculators are gathering the metal to 'manipulate' the Comex inventories their objective is obviously to get the price up. How much higher, who knows, but to engineer a large corner and actually get control of large quantities of physical metal requires some doing and planning. It will not be resold to the market for a 10% profit.

Whatever the reason for the disappearance of stocks the outcome will be the same. Inventories decline below critical level, prices go up.

Oracle Master
(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:25 - ID#237236)
Nick - Thanks
Nick, Thanks for defining those terms. Your 18:00 posting was GREAT!
I have noticed weakness in the eurodollar markets lately. Do you think this could result in higher T-Bond yields soon?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:29 - ID#31868)
Honest: Hopefully you will read this tomorrow not that you have left for the evening.

Instead of allowing you to impune my honor with your slur. I simply will say that before many were brought to America they were Africans first.

I still ask you. What's your point relative to my post? That I am a bigot. Read my previous posts, I don't mince my words in the least on that cancer of the mind and soul subject. Go back just to yesterday in fact. Your research on me should be at least that long. 24 hours.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:32 - ID#187218)
You recently posted:

"once the crash takes place and an economic depression develops, 401k money will virtually disappear"

401 ( k ) money will disappear ??? Do U mean contribution allowance or MY money. I have BIG BUCKS in my 401 ( k ) . Are U more concerned with allocation mix within 401 ( k ) ... confused ...

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:35 - ID#31868)
Nick: I too wish to thank you for the explanatory post. In addition, I hope you make plenty for you and your family. I don't begrudge you one penny of it.

You have provided much insight, and in addition, provided much material for anyone on this post to make up their own mind. Well done.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:41 - ID#37297)
Jiang's Bull Droppings
Honest ( @Truth Genuine BULL CRAP OR WHATEVER ) - Your assine comment "Why will China screw their own Customers in SE Asia, Your logic is too warped or from National Enquirer" is pure detraction from the truth -- NO, my 'friend,' you mistakingly believe Westerners are too dumb to realize what is going on. China's OBJECTIVE IS TO DOMINATE ALL ASIA... as a starter. Your comments childishly cloaked in the innocent terms of "Honest Truth" is really very STUPID OF YOU, and your ancestors would be offened by such monumental imbecility!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:47 - ID#285233)
Big Question
Can anyone comment on the following??? -In the deflationary crash of

1929-33 the equities lost over 80% of value. The gold stocks soared over

500% within this time. Did the gold stocks initially crashed with the

rest of the equities and then resurected??? If so, does anyone know when

the gold index bottomed?? If we are in the initial stages of a

deflationary crash ( which gold may be indicating ) then this info could

be very useful. One problem I see with this comparison:

back then the gold price was officially fixed and not allowed to drop .

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:49 - ID#215208)
More evidence
tolerant1 - I'm not suggesting that the 15-year bull market was a conspiracy. Too much mass for anything but a truly global cooperation. The precious metals markets, however, are much smaller and easier to manipulate. And the evidence is mounting. Besides, collecting evidence is kinda fun ( but somewhat frightening ) .

Nick@aussie - Yes! This is the kind of evidence I am looking for. What other things is Tiger into?

Let's start with silver. Who knows of any recent hedging ( in the last 4-5 months ) . Who were the buyers? Any rumors of Soros or Rothschilds gaining control of current and/or future supply?

Then gold. With the gold price crumbling, under some unknown forces, rumors from the Swiss ( Rothschilds? ) etc., now should be the time that frightened mining companies would welcome a "savior" that will buy near-term production for a "generous" price, say $330/ounce. Also, we should see more big positions in major suppliers taken by Soros, Rothschilds, Tiger ( a la Normandy ) , and others that aren't on my list yet. Remember buying hedged production and mining stocks ( gold in the ground ) are the best ways to acquire control, without putting pressure on the price. Also private transactions. Nick - who did Oz sell their gold to? Didn't seem to depress the market. Probably never hit the market.

This is starting to make sense. Help me people.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 21:58 - ID#37297)
REF: "Date: Mon Nov 10 1997 21:03 Honest ( @Truth ) ID#394276: Tsung, Please answer WHY WILL CHINA DESTROY THEIR OWN BACKYARD, Are you from House of Rot?"

Mr. Honest CRAP, as you well know - or should - Chairman Mao in the now infamous little RED-BOOK clearly stated "... often one must destroy in order to build something better..." That's exactly the current objective. Either you are too dumb or too well paid to admit this.

You use the Internet handle "Honest Truth." HEEEY! Why be so humble, why not use the cloak of JESUS CHRIST OR MOSES OR MOHAMMAD OR BUDDA to promote your silliness? Or why not be totally sincere as admit you advocate the policies of the Grand Chairman Mao? I respect all who are sincere in their convictions - even though alien to mine - BUT NOT A RANK BULLSHITER!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:04 - ID#285233)
Mr Tsung are we seeing red tonight?? You would sound a lot smarter if you kept your tirade clean!!!!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:05 - ID#386276)
Oracle Master
I am not really conversant with currencies and bonds.
But I observe the strains being applied.
US T-bonds are coming up to a tripple top, solid resistance there.
I feel that if this house of cards come down,
That bonds are not going to as well supported,
Simply because of the lack of surplace funds.
This must be the nemesis of all global Gov'ts.

I think that AG should do the same as England, maybe he will.
With this withdrawal of funds, as the masses sell off and take profits.
There will be an unprecedented buying binge.
After all, if you had put in $100k and it was now worth $500k,
Before you re-invested it, you would go and reward yourself with some fancy toys, for a job well done.
This is human nature, and we will soon see the effects of this.
This must surely put presure on AG,
As he needs to pre-empt monetary policy.

I'll see what else I can find out tonite.
I do have some more info regarding the subject.

Tolerant, JTF
Thanks for the compliments. JTF will email you tonite.

Gone to bed, back tonight for the next exciting episode.
( :o}}}}}}

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:05 - ID#28593)
TO: DJ@21:49

Please excuse me for butting in, but Tiger/Normandy: Doesn't Normandy have something to do with Newcrest? And Newcrest is Sir Roderick Carnegie, he of the Group of 30?
Thanks. And again, my pardon. Couldn't resist. I too am hot on a trail. Small world if they intersect!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:09 - ID#28593)
To: Nick@Aussie

I'd like to add my thanks too. You are brillant and extremely helpful. And I'm touched by your Dad's poetry; bet he has a larger audience than most 20th centruy artists!
Thanks again.

Lan Man
(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:13 - ID#320108)
@Daily Petroleum & Gold Report

Petro Report:

Crude oil futures fell at the New York Mercantile Exchange amid a
lack of fresh news about the dispute between the U.S. and Iraq
over weapons inspections. "When we came in Monday morning, there
were no planes shot down or any other shots fired, which created
the sense that the situation may not escalate," said Tom Bentz, an
energy analyst with High Yield Analytics Inc. ( WSJ Interactive )

( What a bummer! )

Gold Report:

COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended little changed
Monday, with some fund shortcovering on light volumes seen when
gold prices failed to follow-through to the downside after Friday's weakness.

"It was a quiet day, with volume dominated by the December/February roll in gold, and traders puzzled by the lack of support for gold recently, despite the stock market volatility and potentially inflationary data like Friday's U.S. unemployment data," Hudson River Futures COMEX floor trader Carlos Perez-Santalla said.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:18 - ID#37297)
THANKS OLD BUDDY, YOU WERE AN EASY OPPONENT... at least for 10 minutes.

If any thing you have 'brayed' tonight truly identifies who and what you represent, it is your statement: "Honest ( @Truth ) ID#394276: You still call them Africans in America, not Americans..G'nite"

My friend, before you try to pull the wool over people's eyes, you had better study and determine the facts first! Friend, you have very little ACCURATE & CURRENT KNOWLEDGE OF THE USA. You may continue to bray at this website, but since I have identified you, expect no further attention from me, because you now have the same importance to me as the braying jackass in the field. Bye "Honest-Crap."

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:19 - ID#255190)
Thanks to Crystal Ball, Miro & Jin for URLs

That's what I needed. Jin you need a rubber boat. Maybe Nick@Aussie can send you one!!!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:25 - ID#7568)

Being one of the 'money changers' or currency speculators in the modern parlance I take a little offense at all the junk that has been posted here as truth.

The troubles of the Southeast Asian currencies were brought about by one and only one thing and those were the economic policies of the leadership of those countries. What they did in short was to use the 'full faith and credit' of their country and thier citizens to enrich their upper classes in a very simple game. When the game ended, everyone got hurt. The game was very simple. By 'guaranteeing' a fixed rate of exchange with the US dollar, a country to which their economies were only very loosely tied, they caused two things to occur. First, companies that would normally borrow in local currency were encouraged to borrow in dollars because dollar denominated debt carried a lower interest cost. As long as the government 'guaranteed' the currency risk, it would be silly to pay higher interest rates in the local currency when a cheaper method of borrowing was available. Borrowing in dollars allowed for otherwise unsound investments in various projects to be made because of the artificially low financing rates. This created a speculative bubble in all sorts of project which had no business being financed. Had their been no speculators at all the outcome would have eventually been the same. That speculators became involved only accelerated the process. ( After the U.S. financial asset bubble is pricked look for the same witchhunt )

One point that is completely obvious but is totally ignored by all those looking for a scapegoat is that speculators must eventually unwind their positions to make a profit. If they sell anything at x they must buy it back at x minus something in order to make a profit.

Imagine a currency which is at a 'fair' price, which is not supported by any government decree, or by any unsustainable policy which is politically motivated but economically unsound. In short a currency whose price is somewhere near its purchasing power parity vis a vis a second currency. This point is the point at which by exchanging one currency for another the same quantity of similar goods and services can be had in one country as the other. In this instance if a speculator comes in and buys heavily in one currency and sells heavily in the other currency the price will change in the short term. However, the change in price will cause the goods and services of one country to be cheaper than the others and capital flows will work to restore this imbalance and the speculator will lose.

Speculators are more successful in currency markets than any other precisely because they are manipulated by governments. Currency markets have the greatest distortions and also move in predictable patterns ( trends ) because governmental institutions can not and will not let the market function. To leave the markets alone, they would have to subvert their egos and their desire for control. This is about as likely as an alcoholic going to a wine tasting party spitting out the wine.

Speculators actually do play a very useful role in the price discovery process. By analyzing all the available information and betting upon that information they move market prices towards their point of maximum economic efficiency. Only those speculators that are correct enough of the time live to continue to play the game. Unlike governments, nobody bails us out when we are wrong. Those speculators that survive increase the likelyhood of more economically correcy prices because they demonstrate a continuing ability to understand when prices are in disequilibrium and act accordingly. The faster that prices reach their proper value the greater the economic efficiency which is a benefit to the entire society.

Consider a world in which speculators were banned. Suppose that you had a bunch of commercial agricultural concerns that decided one year that they would not pay any more than $2.00 / bushel of corn even though it was apparent that there was a great threat of crop disruption in the following years due to the possibility of some well known weather pattern ( El Nino? ) . The next year, farmers, faced with low prices do not plant too much corn and lo and behold the weather pattern hits wiping out a large portion of the crop. Because the crop planted was small to begin with there are now real shortages because the information available about the risk to the upcoming crop was not transmitted by price because speculators were not allowed in the market.

To think that George Soros' fund with assets of around $20 billion dollars could somehow destroy the currency of a country which was fundamentally sound is absurd. The Thai government lost more than $23 billion defending their currency. Soros' fund is up around 20% for the year or $ 4 billion. Even if every penny of Quantum funds earnings were accounted for by the Thai devaluation ( and they most certainly were not ) , what do you suppose happened to the other $19 billion?

The bulls&^t spewed by the 'leaders' of these countries is only a smoke screen to divert attention from the massive mistakes they have made in governing. If the people of these countries really understood what had happened they would know well where to slip the nooses.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:26 - ID#255190)

Don't you know that the USA is the center of the known universe?? ( laugh, OK! ) . Need some input from you about the view from the East. Imperialist cultures never drop their nature, whether east or west, eh? China was at a low ebb earlier this century. My sense about communism in both Russia and China is that it is old lion in new clothes: Russia Czars transformed into communists, ditto Chinese communists from empirors. This applies as much to the west. Power elites always ride the wave.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:27 - ID#30116)
Nick - I look at the Dow and I don't see a crash. Then again, who could see a crash? I only know moving averages and support / resistance lines. Right now the 200 day MA is 7447. The Dow closed at 7552 today, the S&P 500 and the Dow didn't hold their 'normal' ~8:1 ratio today. Another 110 points down, and we're below the 200 day MA. That would definitely turn some heads on Wall Street. Then again, 10.000% is the 'magic' number burned in to the dippies brain. If we puncture that by a fair amount and it sticks, then a mini bear or a full fledged bear? That remains to be seen. I've long argued for a slow bear, not a massive crash. The most dangerous phrase that I keep on hearing is that, "This time it's different." The only bear that I know of for sure, is the gold bear.

As far as cash inflows go, I sort of look at like an exponential function. At some point, the incremental amount added just doesn't matter any more. It becomes too small compared to the total, thus the axiom of markets falling of their own weight. Are we there? I don't know, but ~$20 billion monthly inflows compared to $9 trillion total capitalization?

I know this is a gold site, therefore gold is the topic. General equities figure in, only because of the assumed inverse relationship of gold and financial asset classes. So LGB, If you wanted to talk gold, fine. To expect bullish stock talk from gold bugs on a gold site is,., a little bit of a stretch.

As far as the gold bear goes, there may be some light at the end of this tunnel, and I don't think it's an oncoming freight train either. Looking at a few things, there's a good chance of the 1993 scenario setting up in the next three to six months for gold. No guarantees, just similarities. Either we are now hitting bottom in various gold stocks, or one more 10 -15% downdraft in the XAU is in the offing. Echo bay took out the '93 lows, Newmont is near the lows, the S.A. stocks are pitiful, and if Western Deep goes to $10 ( I doubt it, but who knows? ) I'll be taking out loans to buy it. If we go below the '93 lows in the XAU, I suggest we offer the mines a $100 for each of the deeds to the places. I'm sure they'll think it's a steal. :- ) )

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:28 - ID#251165)
@ spy com
DJ, OZ sold arond 85% of 167 tonnes to Sth Korea according to my source.
However the thing that gets me is that the dumb Aussies ( yes I am one )
are going to be warehousing for the Sth Koreans.
China has been planning something big for ages. Only a fool would take
all that gold at inflated forward prices unless the plan was masterly.

Lookout, for as Lao Tzu did say; What is up is down
What is down is up
Everything tends towards the middle

China could have gobbled up about 2-3 years of future world mine
production and this has got everyone heading for the exits. As well
the reorganising of the deck chairs ( read CB gold reserves} seems to
be galloping ahead.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:30 - ID#31868)
DJ: I know you weren't, sorry if my post made it sound like that. Unintentional.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:35 - ID#255190)

That's real nice to hear that you appreciate some of what I post. Thanks. Sometimes I think after posting that it sounds to soap box. All is ofered as a contribution. And take what is posted here into consideration. Like a puzzle.

I was teasing you about being a big roller. Just know you will be one day. One guy here in the states started with 10 cents made it to being a multimillionaire, last century. Not that it needs to be an obsession. A few calls and puts will do you well if you do your homework.

But, mate, ya still got that pool!!! and a nice family ta boot. DO smell the roses/daisys as all this money and gloomy stuff will only cause ya white hair and wrinkles. BTW had a good friend stationed at Alice Springs a few years back. Kangaroo tail! in the freezer case!! My, oh, my!!!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:40 - ID#30116)
D.A. -- You just don't get it! George Orwell is alive and well these days! People bounce between stock funds and bonds funds without a clue. The average investor thinks that bonds are a 'safe' place to be! Can you say 1994? Most folks don't understand currency risk. They don't understand how something happening half a world away can affect their investments. Hell, most people don't understand why there is so much Chinese manufactured goods in this country. They just care about their investments going up in value, not why, and not when the piper will be paid. Remember, love is hate, good is bad, double speak and double think. You don't have to go too far to find it.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:51 - ID#7568)

The level of disconnect between perception and reality never ceases to amaze me. Sometimes I wonder how the hell the human race has made it this far.

Off to dream good dreams. Good night.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:53 - ID#386276)
@Poet's corner
The Dry Brown Land

Time ground, relentless, mountain chains
Time raked these rock hard gibber plains
Time dried the ancient inland seas
Time tilled once fertile lands to these

And in the shaping
With generous hand
Scattered rich treasure
Thru the dry red land

Time sifted fire and sifted sand
Time gouged these chasms drained these lands
Time baked brick red the deep rich soil
Time is destroyer - Time the foil.

Rich the jewels time buried there
Pure Opal fire, most precious, rare
Diamond white and ruby red
Treasure in hidden river bed
Great wealth in clays and river sands
The dark coals deep in layered bands

Time is red plain - Time is river
Time creator - Time rich giver
Time burned forest hill and plain
Time will green them all again

Deep hidden in her ancient streams
Elusive hopes and richest dreams
Hid deep in plain and mountain fold
Reefs, rivers and streams and fields of --gold--

Time shaped these hills, time shaped this plain
Time will renew this land again
Time will outlive the race of men
Time claim these hills, these seas again.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 22:59 - ID#30116)
D.A. -- I've wondered that for a long time too.

Good night all.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 23:06 - ID#255190)

DA - I appreciate your post and feel tht many are more interested in blaming than in taking responsiblity. But that started long ago in a garden didn't it? Anyway, a plain and noteworthy explaination.

In this case the political sector and the financial sector are creating alot of turbulance for people who must live on what they earn. Your role is to exploit whatever discrepancies you can find before the next guy finds them. This also causes distortions, hopefully of a countervailing nature to the first, but not necessarily so. In dynamic systems which operate non-linearly we may find that the small actions of any player in the market induces the avalache. So we are all to some degree part of the problem, part of the trigger and part of the aftermath.

Really the problem comes back to a matter of standards which are immutable. If any currency is referenceless than it will be used and abused by those who have power. You are participating in that ebb and flow. The result of this vacillation is that people who most need stability, ie - the working poor, are the most vulnerable to being disposessed. They have the least to save and need the longest time frame for garnering something to see them through difficulties and to pass on to their posterity. When small thefts are compounded they end up losing their entire accumulation and hope for improvement.

This is not to lay blame on you but one point of view about the system you are involved in. At some point hopefully we can contribute to a system which will replace this one; a system which will be fair and honest and dependable. At the least we should work to that end in a constructive fashion.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 23:08 - ID#251165)
red rhinos and failures

(Mon Nov 10 1997 23:13 - ID#262159)
@ Another exciting night
Dec.Gold @ UNCH

(Mon Nov 10 1997 23:20 - ID#287277)
@Tiger.George.Sir RoderickNormanday.Newcrest
To: Allen, DJ, Nick@Aussie;

Bingo! Idon't know what trail you fellahs are tracking, but Normandy and Newcrest intersect. "Newcrest does not consider it appropriate to agree in advance to a valuation process where the interests are in the hands of a third party." ( this is 4/96 There's more. Are you interested?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 23:23 - ID#287277)
Well said.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 23:28 - ID#215208)
Jump in!
SDRer - Sorry, I had to take time out for Seinfeld. I'm all ears! What do you have to add to the mounting evidence? And the "Group of 30" ... I wouldn't have believed it would require that much firepower to handle platinum and palladium, but maybe gold is a somewhat bigger fish. Do tell.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 23:31 - ID#386276)
Watching our market and the rest of asia.
Hong Kong +153 and falling.
Japan +31and creeping
OZ +3.6
Globex +320
The calm before the storm?
Not enough volatility?

(Mon Nov 10 1997 23:33 - ID#173274)
Back@the scene
Allen ( USA ) -- Amazing what trying to gain a 'little' advantage can cause, heh? Comercials trying to take advantage of the farmer; Wholesalers trying to gain the 'competitive' edge; the CONSUMER always looking for the best/lowest price. So who's honest? All claim that they are! All knowing that SOMEONE, somewhere, is getting a raw deal.

A simple question for you. Do you ALWAYS strive to purchase items NOT made in a slave-based country? If not, perhaps you are not being honest to your own principles. How about that 'made-in-America' label. How much of that was actually NOT made in such a place.

Can a real non-competitive, but totally co-operative system ever be put into place and 'allowed' to function? Perhaps. In our lifetimes, or our childrens? Not bloody likely. Can you imagine the paradigm shift ( there's that phrase again! ) that would have to occur in the whole system to bring that about? It would be more likely to happen on a colonized planet than it would here, and sooner!

(Mon Nov 10 1997 23:44 - ID#31868)
I don't see how we can have a system of any kind upon which to build, when each brick lays on top of a monetary unit which is based on nothing.

Tying a money system to a 100% backing by gold would do this.

We can't fix this current system because it is based on lies, political gain, manipulation, etc.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 23:49 - ID#335190)
Russia @ Central Banker rejigs ruble
November 10, 1997
Russia, eyeing Asia woes, rejigs ruble rules

MOSCOW ( Reuters ) - Russia's central bank, vowing to shore up the ruble and the economy against any Asian-style financial or currency crises, said Monday it was raising key interest rates and would change its ruble policy from next year.

Central bank chairman Sergei Dubinin, who canceled a trip to China with President Boris Yeltsin to make a string of market-sensitive announcements, said the bank would raise its refinancing rate to 28 percent from 21 percent from Nov. 11. "The last two weeks have not been easy for Russia's financial markets," he said in a statement issued via Reuters Financial Television. "The cause for this has been the destabilizing situation in the countries of Southeast Asia and the crisis on world financial markets."

"This situation ( Asian currency turmoil ) is having more and more influence on the condition of the Russian financial market," Dubinin said. "The government and the Central Bank of Russia consider it indispensable to undertake decisive steps that would defend the Russian financial system and ensure stability on Russian financial markets."

The Russian stock market, one of the hottest emerging markets of the year, lost 20 percent of its value in late October but then staged a recovery and is still up around 120 percent since the start of the year.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 23:51 - ID#187218)
Does anyone know a way to obtain a silver futures contract that is less than 5,000 oz. ??? Looking for something that is 1,000 or ultimately multiples of 100 oz...


(Mon Nov 10 1997 23:51 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Allen ( USA ) -- And lest we forget, having an honest non-debt-based monetary system, should a monetary system even BE required under a total honor system! FAR in the future, if ever. This would require HONEST beings; to the UTMOST, honest! Humanity is not at that stage yet. Should it not blow itself out of the water due to total frustration, perhaps it will climb out of this back-water of mental/spiritual sludge.

(Mon Nov 10 1997 23:57 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Tolerant1 -- That's right! This world can't even get to square ONE without a non-manipulative monetary system. Anything BUT is total fabrication and a lie.