Nikkei DOWN 389 POINTS AND FALLING. Keep the table-kneives away from
Hashi!

DISNEY.. I agree with your assessment. However, if someone borrows gold and sells it at today's price, and then buys it forward to hedge, won't he be buying higher than his sale? In any case, he only has 6% to play with, or about $19 in the price of gold. It looks like these guys are walking a thin margin, especially the latest to enter the game.

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Any idea what's happening with silver? Full moon - right on que. I wonder -- it didn't go down very much did it? Perhaps the Silver corner is here!

Nick ( @Aussie ) ID#386276:
Why does this drop bother you? I assume that they are buying their market just like rubin is here, it just that the asian are a brighter lot than those over here ( plus they are tired of pretending for a long years ) . I expect that 14,000 is well on its way. Bonds WILL be sold, no if's and's or butts.

Does anyone take Ian McAvity's Deliberations? If you do please share with us his latest call on the asia markets especially Japan, Hong Kong and Korea. Thanks in advance.

It is harakiri time for Crashimoto-Nikkei down 400 points-30 from 15000

a

steady:
What url are you watching the nekkei on? Yahoo has it at

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 12:06AM 15056.64 -370.63 -2.40%

Good ta hear from ya mate!!!! I'm burnt-out....G'nite~~~~~~~~~~

What is the best website to follow the Japanese stock exchange?

Oracle
I try not to use fundamentals with my charting.
Last nights push to my eye was very unusual.
Not as it should have been.
Something screwy, know what I mean.
The swing chart updated at about the bottom of the fall at 12:30.
Showed it to be a lot worse.
Last night had the potential to be baaaddddd!
It was saved.
The swing chart is going crazy.
It is ziging and zaging far to fast this last week.
I had thought that the Dow would be hard down last.
Worse friday night, with high potential for a crash monday.
It didn't happen last night and I have a fair idea why.
This interference is showing up as the ziging and zaging.
Interesting that neither the dow or s&p broke out above their resistance.
They failed on it on the first rally and on the second rally.
They nether managed to push it above this line.
That trendline has held true all the way down since the last cycle top.
I still feel that it won't break.
The way Japan is falling at the moment,
Could stop the dow breaking out, above this line.
With the swing oscillating too much,
Followed by japan pushing the dow back under the trendline,
Could reconfirm the power of the trendline, and the bear.

OZ falling steady steady with Japan.

Silver has a lovely strong uptrend support line.
I don't follow the fundamentals except for what I read here on Kitco.
But the chart I like.
Already have some calls purchased recently.

The GCZ7 chart is starting to look interesting to me.
The horizontal line with the ascending trendline is forming a nice wedge.
A breakout here will be very powerful either way.
I tend to favour a breakout away from the horizontal line - upwards.
I also have calls in gold.

Our OZ SPI just broke away from the same formation,
Except upside down from the gold horizontal wedge.
A horizontal line with the trendline rising up to it.
And it has broken to the downside strongly.
It has moved down 78pts just today
That is a very strong move.
If gold makes a break up through its resistance trendline.
I will be acquiring more gold calls.

Our SPI has fallen 25 pts while I wrote this, so I guess that the Nikkei is falling badly.

John Disney Always appreciate your posts, thanks, but am unsure about your ref to Au/Ag ratio. I have year table from 1550 to present, and the ratio bobs and dives, from low of 10.42 in 1601 to a high of 92.52 in 1940. Would be very interested in your conjectures about significance of 1985 low of 58. I abandoned study of this ratio, but always willing to look again if I missed something.

I Think this sums it up for the poor Japanese market.

Friday November 14, 12:02 am Eastern Time

Yamaichi Sec shares fall below Y100, 1st time ever

TOKYO, Nov 14 ( Reuters ) - Shares in Yamaichi Securities Co Ltd ( 8602.T ) slipped below 100 yen for the first time ever in early afternoon trade on
Friday.

It was the first time that shares of one of the ``Big Four'' securities houses had fallen below the 100 yen level.

At 0437 GMT, Yamaichi, the smallest of the Big Four, was down 23 yen percent at 100 yen, topping the list of percentage losers in the first section of
the Tokyo Stock Exchange ( TSE ) . It briefly hit a record low of 96 yen.

Trading volume in the shares was also heavy at 42.16 million shares, making it the most-active issue.

Yamaichi said its share price, which has repeatedly set record lows in recent sessions, was too low given its financial condition.

A spokesman for Yamaichi also said that recent movements in its stock price were speculative.

Brokers said the shares have been under pressure since November 6, when Moody's Investors Service placed Yamaichi's bond rating under review
for a possible downgrade.

Yamaichi's shares have also been hurt by lingering worries about financial scandals engulfing the brokerage, brokers said.

- Tokyo equities desk ( 813 ) 3432-9404

HELP!! for the past 2weeks I have not been able to set Kitco disscussion to long text and limited time frames when I first engage the discussion data base for the day. Can anybody help me do this. ??? Currenly I have to wait what seems like hours to have the entire days' postings downloaded in short text before I can obtain long text and time periods. Please I am getting frustrated with the system but can't help luking in the background.
Nick@aussie Thanks for your email Its great Thanks in advance

A.Goose
Yesterday HK and Japan had a rally like todays dow's rally.
If the nikkei was a 'true' rally, it would not be doing what it is today.
I feel the same for the US rally.
It was not a true rally.
Not at all.

The reason I wasn't on kitco early,
Was because I was hand doing charts on up/down volumes,
Plus updating my swing charts.
I do this at ten minute intervals when the action looks strong.
It was exceedingly sick at the point it turned.
There is no way that the rally was normal.
Therefore it was not a 'true' rally.

Same as HK and Japan.
I would dearly love to see the dow do a re-enactment
Of what Japan is doing today.
The nikkei just might be enough to do this.
All in all, these rapid whipsaw movements are not normal.
And could prove to be the last dying kicks of the bull.
Sentiment, astro and the moon,
Might prove to be to much, for the market makers.

Also I would expect the market makers to know,
When the US is going to tank.
I would expect them to push a rally,
As hard as possible prior to the event.
To get as many long as possible,
And to shake all the shorts out.
Last nights actions fit this to a T.
Maybe not on this one,
But if not on the next one.
Every time they push these false rally's on us,
I view them with great suspicion.
IMHO

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Unless the Japanese have the PPT working on the Nikkei, we may have the strong downturn in the markets Friday/Monday after all! A V reversal on the Nikkei, too? We might just have one more bearish push on gold if the PPT tries save the markets. Bet today's surge in Silver is causing consternation.

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Just saw your 00:43 -- Friday/Monday will be interesting. I'm short SPX options, long silver stocks, short some XAU options, and long some gold stock options. I think that covers the waterfront -- perhaps it was good I didn't have a chance to sell anything afterall! Goodnight -- tomorrow will be lively, I think.

November 13, 1997
Judge issues arrest order against Mexican banker

MONTERREY, Mexico ( Reuters ) - A Mexican judge issued an arrest order Thursday against disgraced financier Jorge Lankenau, although the millionaire banker could make bail, his lawyer said. Lankenau has been under house arrest for weeks on charges that he swindled investors in his troubled bank Banca Confia out of $170 million in murky offshore deals.

"We were notified that a judge issued the arrest order today," Julio Esponda, his lawyer, told reporters.Lankenau, president of Confia's holding company Grupo Financiero Abaco, will have five days to pay some 27 million pesos ( $3.3 million ) in bail money, Esponda said.

Lankenau was arrested two days after Citicorp's Citibank signed a deal on Aug. 27 to buy Confia for up to $250 million from Mexican authorities, who had bailed out the bank at a cost of at least $1 billion.

Nonetheless, authorities allowed the former banker to remain under house arrest at his $20 million mansion in this northern industrialized city. The move angered many ordinary Mexicans.

Lankenau even escaped from house arrest for a few days in October before turning himself in to authorities, who ordered him back to his home.

On Thursday Lankenau turned up at a city courthouse and sat quietly before a judge as his lawyer delivered written testimony on behalf of his client.

"My client cannot pay his investors because the money is in the financial institution. If he were able to be in the institution, he would repay the investors. It's the authorities who don't want the money repaid," the lawyer said.

Lankenau recently said he could retake control of the bank from Citibank if his lawyer got him off the charges.

November 13, 1997
Clinton meets with Democrat fast-track backers

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton met Thursday with some of the few House Democrats who backed his unsuccessful quest for "fast track" trade negotiating authority, the White House said.

Officials have said barely more than 40 of the 204 Democrats in the House supported the measure. Efforts to win enough Republican votes to reach a majority reached an impasse over Republican insistence that the United States restrict aid to international family-planning programs.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TRADE-CLINTON.html

Nikkei down over 2% today. Down about 30% from its '97 high. http:quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=t This patient is in critical condition.

Nikkei data: http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=t

Pilgrim - before you spend any of that money go read a book.
"Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre. Read
it twice if you have to. It is a crime that this book isn't
mandatory reading before anyone invests a penny in any market.

BTW, I run TS 4.0 - it is a beast. It has a niche market that
it is terrific for, but overkill for most needs.

Looks like Crashimoto doesn't have things under control tonight. Tomorrow morning I'm raiding the ATM machine and taking out all of my cash, I think we are perilously close to a global liquidity lockup which can get sparked by a big Japanese bank heading into the toilet. Gold will be king and Cash will be queen

-Organ

Well, I am breathing a sigh of relief, I locked in my physical gold purchase today. I will also be sending in my refining as the warnings are out that in a spike situation, refineries get backed up possibly beyond the peak. Sorry Kitco, Canada is a difficult transaction for refining from the USA.

I went through Glines and Rhodes. Speaking with them today, I asked who the buyers were when gold went to $850 years back. They said buying was light and mostly by large jewelry manufacturers who had no choice but to keep producing.

What thoughts are there about light physical buying when gold rallies?

I am lashed to the mainsail with my sack of gold and home deed in hand. Ahoy!

11

Silver now at 5.20, up .06 from New York close.

Glad to see I have some company in BCMD. May I refer you to a very good thread at SI. Just type in BCMD in the search function at this URL. If you see a Roebear there well, the name remains the same! If you want to post there is a lifetime fee but a free trial period I think, lurking is free.

http://www.techstocks.com/investor/StockTalk

Some fun from avid

http://www.iglobal.net/pub/swtrans/option.html

As long as we're talking about how much of a cow this gold market has been, ahhem.. I look forward to hearing local additions..


Feudalism
You have two cows. The Lord of the Manor takes some of the milk.

Pure Socialism
You have two cows. The government puts them in a barn with everyone elses cows. You have to take care of all the cows but the government gives you all the milk you need.

Pure Communism
You have two cows. Your neighbours help you take care of them and you all share the milk.

Russian Communism
You have two cows. You have to take care of both of them but the government takes all the milk.

Fascism
You have two cows. The government takes both of them, hires you to take care of them and sells you the milk.

Totalitarianism
You have two cows. The government takes both of them and denies they ever existed. Milk is banned.

Pure Democracy
You have two cows. Your neighbours decide who gets the milk.

Singaporean Democracy
You have two cows. The government fines you for keeping two unlicensed cows in an apartment.

British Democracy
You have two cows. You feed them sheep brains and they go mad. The government does nothing.

EC Democracy
You have two cows. The government takes both of them, shoots one, milks the other and pours the milk down the drain. The bureaucrats ask you to fill out five forms in triplicate to account for the missing cow.

NZ Democracy
You have two cows. Under the Resource Management Act, you have to ask the local iwi ( Maori Tribe ) if you can milk them. The iwi has to be given koha ( gift of thanks aka bribe ) before it can reach a decision. You sell the cows to pay the koha.

living in bucolic splendour for now aurator

G'day all. Silver up, Nikkei looking sick. Found a neat place where you can get a free e-mail address. http://netaddress@usa.net>http://netaddress@usa.net Got my own-- aurics@usa.net -- ( note the s at the end of the name )

Try that again http://netaddress.usa.net/

Aurator
All those cows must be in another paddock.
Cause the bull in this one wants to leave.


A.Goose
Ian McAverty search list.
http://www.altavista.yellowpages.com.au/cgi-bin/query?mss=simple&pg=q&what=web&fmt=.&q=Ian%2BMcAvity

For Aurator
Significance of 57.7 ratio in 1988 is simply that it
is MOST RECENT LOW. All other lows have been broken.
This implies a retest of 57.7 will come. Silver at
5.20 says gold will test $300 - Nice round number
and only a bit below Bernatz de Ventadorm's report
on the WOP forecast of $305/oz.
Also update your charts - Ratio of 92.5 in 1940 was
broken a few years back with a new high of 99.1.
For Larryn
Buying same amount of gold forward to sterilize loan
should only cost a guy about 3 % ( I think ) - Plus any
buy/sell spreads. I think that what happens is that the
cost of a "gold loan" ( made up of lease cost + forward
purchase cost at current rates ) breaks even with a
"money loan". This way CBs can convert gold from a
dead asset to an asset that yields a return. Maybe Im
wrong. I want comments because I believe this mechanism
may be the key to the gold price - God knows
supply/demand doesnt work.
The reason I say it may be KEY is that in a situation
where the cost of such a loan EXCEEDS say LIBOR plus a
little - no one would take the loan and "front end"
gold would dry up. If the mechanism I postulate is
correct, then in such a case the price would rise because
"back end" gold still has to be repaid and we would be
in the reverse of the situation we're in now.
I really wish some one would take some interest in
this point. I'm tired of talking to myself about it.

Aurics; G'day, also available at hotmail.com. have to look... Nick in Aus appreciated that webcam site, Brave man to hold paper right now?

Gentlemen: The majoriy of the negative tone at this site and on the tele
tell me I will make my retirement or loose my shirt. Don't forget the
devil is in the details. Look at deflation giving way to the emergnce
of a hyperinflationary groth spurt in the Fr East. Don't sweat NOW
( unless you are day trading ) . I'll never sell my metal. BELIEVE!

John Disney Thank you, it *is* time I updated my charts.

Nick : The edge on you intellect makes you ripe for things to come.
I am a dummard in USA global terms. Appreciate you Middle East insight.
Can we be a team? You the brains and I the cheerleader. If not, Good luck
Thanks for your feedback to the group. Gday mate!

Gnite mates!

Hi aurator--Yep. I own hm, bmg, paasf, ssrif, fsr, aem. These are not extensively hedged, and are digging up metal. The way I see it, if these get crushed, as ANOTHER says they might, then it's head for the hills time. How about them Apr. hm 12.5 calls, eh?

Nick uhuh, trouble is, so many cows, so many paddocks, which one?

Poor bull is a little confused, needs a red-rag, any ideas?

Madman insane? HK bank-no-panic?, Tokyo meltdown? KoreaFamine? Who predicted end of Berlin Wall and Disintegration of the USSR? I suspect that the red-rag may be something as inoccuous and seemingly irrelevant as, why, as radio-active gemstones, or golden meteorites or cannibal astrologers going amuk in Kansas, perhaps even a new series of Gilligan's Island.

MONETARY SITUATION IN ASIA
C-Span2 TODAY House Banking Commitee

Robert Hormats - Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman
Robert Rubens Partner
John Lipsky - Chase Mahattan bank
Rockefellers Bank
David Hale - Zurich Kemper Investments Chief Global Economist
Jerome Levinson - American University
All asking for more money for IMF long term structural problems
Fred Bergsten - Director - Institute for International Economics
Independent think tank

They are worried big time.
Asking for more money for the IMF
Warning Congress that if they don't the American worker will be hurt hard and may loose their Pensions and savings.

Be sure to watch the reruns!!!! It really shows the concern for this situation.

Later, Good Night All

Find that a lot of the posts are really interesting theories, and many
books could be written on them.
However getting back to basics- Gold stocks, and I believe bullion has
had it's bear market, give or take a % here and there. The next directon
is up. This is not to say that after a run up there won't be a sharp correction back down, to test the bottom, but my charts tell me this
down move has finally had it.
A few months ago I wouldn't have believed the extent, but here we are
and from past experience the markets frequently go furhter than expected.

The averages, indecies, I believe will correct, maybe sharply, but no
crash. There is still a move up to come, which will include a lot of stocks I've been charting, which look interesting. I refer to steels,
coppers, special situations, like CREAF, USHG, NOVL just to mention some.
When one looks at their long term charts, I think they will be a buy and
fairly soon. What's soon? say a couple of months!
Studying, and I mean studying long term charts of HL, SSC and others,
I believe they are a great buy at these levels. Especially since silver
seems to have started warming up. Remember when I say long term charts, I've been referring to 20-40 year old babies. Patterns, rhythms call it what you will ( Cycles ) do have a way of repeating. Not always uniformly,
but repeating non the less, like a symphony with the main theme, and then the various variations of the theme.
This is why Mike Sheller's work interests me. There seems to be a rhythm
in the universe.
Worldly problems, such as overpopulation, deforestation, pollution etc. etc., I believe nature has its own way of correcting these. Not always to our liking. What does all of this mean- wars, disease, starvation, wheather changes, earth quakes, you name it we'll experience it. It has
all happened before. "There's nothing new under the sun!"

Conspiracies aside, when one looks back, all seems to make sense. The reasons after the fact are so much more obvious. Anyone for HINDSIGHT?

Would sure love to hear opinions- is OLDMAN, RJ, HEPCAT, ANOTHER, GLENN,
DA, MIKE S., GEORGE C., others, interested in picking apart what I've said? That's not a challenge, just a friendly invitation for further ideas, based on your work.

Globex S&P +160. What crash??

Here is latest money supply report-- http://167.8.29.25/money/economy/econ0032.htm

Nick@C
Could be a good night to be short?
They might just whipsaw all those buyers from yesterday.

Aurator
I must be as tired as all those bulls.
I got your monikers mixed metaphorically.
Which paddock are you heading for.

Avid chatter:
Japan's Recovery Stalling, Economic Planning Agency Says Japan's four-year recovery has stalled, the Economic Planning Agency said in its monthly report. The 9 trillion yen ( $71.7 billion ) in new taxes the government introduced this year has depressed consumer spending, which makes up three-fifths of the economy. The economy contracted 11.2 percent in the April-June quarter at an annualized rate, its worst performance in 23 years. The tax increases were designed to shrink the country's ballooning deficit, yet it sent sales plummeting and left manufacturers with higher inventories. It's also forced companies to scale back hiring and capital spending.

Greenspan not giving it straight, Fred Bergsten Dir of International Economics, said if the money crisis get out of hand 554 down will look like Childs Play

There are also comments on 'Fidelity' concerning todays action, in Japan.
I havent got the urls,
If someone can do a search for these article's please.
They sound pretty interesting.

Reify
Incoming email

Reify -- Well said, mate. "Capitulation" comes in many forms. We may not yet have seen the final lows but there are signs of capitulation everywhere. I am currently in the process of stocking up on physical. I have found some collectors ( capitulators ) who have thrown in the towel!! Large collections of proof gold coins ( in rare issues ) are going for a small markup on spot. They are being sold for less than 1/2 the price paid for them ( and this does not include inflation ) .

Other signs of "capitulation" are on this site. The most pro-gold people on the planet are talking about going down with the ship. There may still be a final down-spike selloff -- but I wouldn't guarantee it. Maybe we'll have a nice quiet little turnaround where value finally asserts itself and the price justs starts working its way up in increments. Trying to pick the bottom is a recipe for losing money--BUT--the nature of "money" ( in the public's eye ) is now about to change. I already feel better having changed Aussie polymer ( plastic ) notes for 'real' money.

Nick @ Aussie, look for me in the golden fields, bathed in a silver moon' BJ likes 1kg silver doorstops! the bulls are real confused, This would be a good time to hear from Nick@Canberra, if you can just fight off those heifers for a minute or two...Nick, step up to the 'phone...

Credo JM 9999

sleeping easy while the world goes a leeetle crazy today, methinks....

aurator

These charts show the abnormal behavior experienced yesterday.
These indexes were tanking fast and showed no signs of a normal,
U bottom, where the fall loses momentum, slows down, bottoms,
Then slowly starts to rise picking up momentum on the way.
This is very abnomal behaviour.
These charts show the way that they 'jerked' back in the opposite direction.
This instant reversal formation is the same as witnessed two weeks ago.
They had to be pulled up here as a further break downwards,
Would have broken serious support lines.

ESZ7 showing *V* bottom
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Djz7.gif

SPZ7 showing *V* bottom
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Spz7.gif

Dow showing *V* bottom
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Dows.gif

Transports showing a more normal *u* bottom
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Trans.gif

Bob Woodward Story. Looking real bad for White House. http://www.drudgereport.com/1.htm

Here is the Woodward article hot off the press http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1997-11/14/033r-111497-idx.html

REIFY: Ur 03:32 - Couldn't agree with your observations more. Cycle theory has not received the study it deserves, in all phases of our lives. A lot of TAs are in effect studying it. In one small area I am not so sure I agree with you. Picking bottoms has worked out for me to a certain extent. I always get out too soon and buy too soon but my gut feeling has served me well for a long time ( since I bot my first mutual fund in '5l ;- ) A few poor calls also plagued me of course along the way. Right now I am really a bear on the NYSE et al and a scared bull on the PMs. So in the last couple weeks I have bot three times where my heart is. I believe the mid-east has the potential to blow up any time now and I think I am playing the odds on mans inhumanity to man, and history. Always enjoy your astute comments as we normally agree ;- )

AURIC: Ur Woodward post from Wash. Post re Chinese buying influence - funny thing - hearings closed down, out comes this info. Thompson doesn't know if he will reopen them? What has he got to hide? I think both parties are in this up to their necks and if we all knew the real truth we would regurgitate.

Goldbug23--That article is incredible. Sounds like a MAJOR breach of national security with the Chinese spy agency involvement. This is a huge scandal if true.

going down

where the hell are you getting proof gold at a small premium over spot? Gimmee a break! You can't be talking about pre-1933 US coins. Even a proof $1 gold piece ( intrinsic value maybe $10 ) goes for many $thousands.

Wife just slipped me into a pair just in case i, well you not what I'm
talking about. Hey I'm a goldbug and if I chit my self the reason will
reverberate across this flat earth.

Globex S&P up 530.

Nick@Aussie. I know it's crash time. You know it's crash time. The Plunge Protection Team knows it's crash time. That's why it ISN'T crash time!! Sold most of my puts for a second time this week. Couldn't help myself. I know if there is a big-time crash I shall miss out on a small fortune. I still took one bird in the hand rather than a hundred in the bush. I expect the Xmas spirit to overwhelm negative reality for a few weeks, and if so I shall buy my puts for a third time. The market IS crashing. It's just doing it in slow motion.

Have through diligent research located some gold shares selling for much less than cash in the bank ( the fact that it's in the bank is probably why it's so cheap ) . On the next gold dip I shall load up to add to my losing gold share position. In the meantime, trading puts has been my bread and butter while I wait for reality to set in.

Mornin', Reify! Remember out little bet for $1.00? Remember when "Housewife" said I was makin' her head spin? I still believe that when the manipulation is over, gold will reassert its true value. May G-d bless us every one!

Re:Date: Fri Nov 14 1997 05:49
Crystal Ball ( @Reify ) ID#287367:
Please refresh my memory, what was the 1$ bet about- if I owe, I shall
pay- trust you accept credit cards.

G'day crystal Ball. Hope your ball is workin', mate. I'm talking Aussie proof coins put out by the Perth Mint in quantities up to 12 000 or so a year ( many in smaller numbers ) . Unbelieveable what they're going for if you've got the right contacts.

By the way -- zugswang was probably not the right term for yesterday's comment. Bungee'd would have been more appropriate.

C.B. -- I woke up at 5a.m. this morning--turned on the tele to CNBC. Dow down 18...23...25...27...24...28...32...37...35...40...43...46...49...THEN the P.P.T. got to work...40...35...32...29...21...etc. Took about five minutes all up-- so I thought "Oh shi*", "what else is new" and went back to sleep. I'm not complaining, mind you. This manipulative volatility is what makes me money, as long as I'm on the right side of the manipulators. You Yanks have turned share market manipulation into an art form!!!

The psychological effect of a doWn mkT would be too much. GOLD DOWN 1.5 LOOKS LIKE WE ARE SETTING UP FOR A GOOD ppi spin day ie GOOD GROWTH AND LOW INFLATION. tHEY DIDNT TURN THAT MARKET AROUND FOR NUUTIN YESTERDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF GOLD HOLDS DOWN AND STOX HOLD UP.

Reify: Hope this fine mornin' finds you hale and healthy! I said gold would go to $300 before it saw $400 again in 1997; you felt otherwise. A personal check will do fine *if* I win. I hope I don't win the bet. {:- ) }
But you and I will both be winners if we're buying the physical at these levels.

Spot gold 306.70
Globex S&P +380

Wake Up TED!!! Time to buy MORE gold shares!!! ( with your winnings from the casino last night ) .

G'day, mate! My crystal ball ain't workin' worth a sh!t. Bought a pile of Dec ABX 17 1/2 calls yesterday...Now it looks like the yellow stuff is goin' down the tubes again today. Well, I'll keep buying the coins, and the spin doctors can kiss my a&s! Some top grade US numismatic coins ARE going for a song ( like MS65 and Proof 65 three cent nickels, shield nickels, Liberty nickels, MS65 and 66 pre-1933 US Commemorative silver and gold, and generic "double-eagles" ) , but NOT US Proof gold ( creme de la creme ) Put a few prawns on the "Nikkie" barbie for me, but don't burn 'em; it's lookin' like it's gonna be a hell of a conflagration! {:- ) }

Highrise: You said "They are worried big time.
Asking for more money for the IMF
Warning Congress that if they don't the American worker will be hurt hard and may
loose their Pensions and savings."

This is another Mexico 1994. They could care less about the American worker. They are trying to protect THEIR unwise investments in Asia. Any IMF money toward the Asia bailout comes right back to Wall Street to insure THEIR pensions and savings, THEIR country club memberships and private schools for THEIR kids.

FTSE100 +80 -} +50 in 5

Love to see the look on RR's face when Bundesbank and BOJ come out and say they're buying ... ( the "G" word ) BBL

Good morning Donald. As I see it, the world is hooked on credit. Money borrowed on over inflated property and share markets used to buy more property, shares and businesses. Do you have any charts that compare, for example, price earnings ratios today with 87, 74 and 29? I do not understand how inflation can be so low when everything around me is inflated to astronomical levels ( except pm's ) . Obviously the S&P index is not a major component of the inflation index!!

Europe up.
J'burg gold down big-time ( -3.46% ) .

Goldbugs--your butts are gonna get scorched today. Use it as a buying opportunity. Buy low--sell high, remember??

Crystal Ball- you better get ready to email me you address, and I'll post a 1$US check to you, as Gold spot is now @ $301.
Nick@Aussie- waiting for your email to arrive. I on red alert.
This shot down, by the way is sickening, but changes nothing.

They can't ship corn. Because of train problems. They can't ship potash to set up the fields for the next crops. Costs are being pasted along.

CNBC morning report.

Nick ( @Aussie ) ID#386276:
It surprises me not that the markets are being worked on. That is why you must complement T.A. with fundemental analysis. The computer revolution has allowed some to work algorithms that are totally based on setting T.A. buy points/sell points. When one knows what others are looking at ( T.A. ) it gives one a great advantage. Not to worry the game is playing out as you expect, it is just going to take longer and yes you may miss the top of the sell zone but you will have many opportunies to make money on the way down. Remember that this bull has gone way higher than anyone thought was reasonable, it will go down more than anyone expects also. You are a very bright fellow, I am sure you will make a mint, just stay calm, patient, and alert.

Tolerant1: You said "And have you noticed that at the end of bad movies the credits are getting longer and longer. This credit expansion thing is getting way out of hand."

That was really funny! My kind of joke!

I think it will be interesting to watch silver today. It will be the pace car. BBL

Nick@Canberra: No I don't have any charts like that but I will see if I can find some text to repost. I don't have any nice chart software like some of the folks at this site. Their charts are really great. I wish I had a large monitor to drink them in at a glance. You are correct about the credit junkies. But, in their defense, it has been the best strategy up until now.

An american worker would surely prefer to "loose" rather than "lose" his savings?

Gold Futures
It seems that now would be an excellent time for one to get
into gold futures, particularly if they have the strength to
take delivery on expiration, regardless of the price. As I
have never worked derivatives, my questions are:
1. How does one go about taking physical delivery on a
future contract?
2. In the event of physical being restricted by the
goverment ( most likely in the near future ) , how would
pre-existing futures contracts stand up legally? Could they
refuse delivery, or would such an event only apply to new
transactions?
3. As ANOTHER mentioned, there is no limit to the
amount of paper gold that can be created, hence the
irational gold prices we see today. As this unwinds,
revealing the mountain of paper supported by very little
physical, would it even be possible to take delivery if prices
really jumped?? 5x.......or even 10x?
4. On a futures contract, WHO is responsible of supplying
the physical delivery.
5. What legal recourses to you have if the ones who are
responsible for delivery cannot deliver??

If these questions could be addressed favorably in a logical
manner, Id say that NOW is the time for Futures. What
has been learned here on Kitco by our collective brain is
as good as any insider information can get. Anyone ready
to take a crack at these questions?

Cmax

Gold seems to be taken another nose dive. Markets around the world are
headed up. The end of the world has been postponed for another day and
the poor folks who follow the scribblings of one Mr. Puetz are just that
much poorer for the experience

Donald: A moment of humor had to be inserted into the barage of barages.

Is there any reason gold dropped so fast in this past hour, is there some bad news that is getting dispersed now? A short while ago I got up in the middle of the night and saw gold dropping like a rock, there was no explanation here, until later when the news about Switzerland became known.

Ask "Why this discovery now?" A big loser - Al Gore. Is he being dumped? Does he have the balls to fight back? This is going to be a sad three years for American leadership.

Cmax: I would shy away from options and futures. The paper promise in my opinion will have more to do with those types of dealings. Gold stocks in my opinion are pretty much in or past their depression. That is the only paper risk in the metals I am taking.

Keep a keen eye on silver. The price could shoot up $3.00 and back down in five hours. I think the biggest one day up and down was $5+

If you have silver stocks keep an eye on them, use your good eye like I do.

Don't try to get rich quick, be very deliberate in your decisions and be thankful with any and all gains no matter how small. Be sure to keep taking some off the table and tuck it away.

It's the smallest pony in the circus that makes you the most money.

THE SUPPLY DEMAND GAP OF GOLD IS 700 TONS LARGER THAN MARKET ESTIMATES!!!
Massive short covering will result, and an enormous gold rally will result. Most important fact I have read so far this year.
Full text at: http://www.geocities.com/wallstreet/4915.html

Has anyone got a near live spot gold URL. Mine are very tardy.

Oxford: You are right. The world is going through a rough spell here.

All: Looks like the market turmoil is leading to another gold down day, and an attempt to trounce silver. Globex market indicators up. Is this going to be a market up day, or morning rally followed by another downturn? Regardless, we've got to watch Japan, and its effect on international banking.
A word of caution -- take care with gold and gold stocks until the downside pressures on the stock market have abated -- can't get in the way of the "powers that be", can we?
Keep most of your powder dry - as they say!

Cmax: Think like this. When this mess heats up in the USA you will need to take a number and get on a long line before your case is heard. By the time you actually get to state your case your money, the paper, the metal and the company you bought it from could be nothing but a memory and an old one at that.

J'burg gold now down 3.98%. Have a nice day y'all.

Abraham G. small correction:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html

Only problem with this could be that if gold stays this anemic, then when the gold loans come due it will be easy for them to be replaced/renewed. The short covering may not have that much of a positive effect if it is done gradually in a bad gold market.

Nick@Canberra: For one of the best discussions of the Debt/Credit balloon read "The Tidal Wave" by Robert Prechter. Chapter 14, written in 1995, indicates total U.S. debt, public and private, to be $20 trillion. This against assets of $19 trillion.

Auric: Interesting post by Woodward. Janet Reno now on the warpath. I always thought she honest -- just compromised in some manner. The tide has shifted. This and the Iraq crisis may do to the US markets what the Plunge Protection Team has prevented so far. May take some time for all of this to unfold.
There is clearly a cyclic shift toward worldwide desire for the truth, and military confrontations IMHO. The spin doctors are losing ground.

Someone help me out on the post I just made on gold market estimates.
Kaplans website is not loading all of a sudden at Geocities.
I rechecked, and that is the correct site address.
Something is wrong all at once.

JTF: I think it is important to start buying physical metal. No need to look for an absolute bottom. Get your hands on what you can afford. When the metals heat up, and things are really getting ugly the ratio of buyers to sellers will be rediculous.

Whats wrong with EBN gold price these days? I don't think they know the difference between up and down.

By the way, is gold at 302 or is that wrong too?

try thhp://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html

try http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html

thhp=http

FOREIGN BANKS ARE WAY BEHIND IN
FIXING MILLENNIUM BUG
November
12, 1997

A study by the House Banking Committee which was submitted last
week reveals that many overseas banks may be way behind or even
ignoring the "millennium bug." Most big U.S. banks and investment
firms seem to be making progress on the computer software problem
that could cause computers to crash soon after midnight on Dec. 31,
1999.

U.S. banks and corporations are spending literally billions of dollars to
identify and fix date-specific lines of programming code that will stop
working correctly as the year 2,000 begins. However, a Gartner Group
study has found that although 50% of U.S. banks seemed to be about
halfway finished dealing with the problem, only about 5% of the world's
other big banks have reached the same point in reprogramming.

After testifying to Congress last week, Lour Marcoccio, Gartner Group's
research director, said, "One of the big shocks of our study is how little
work has been done outside the United States. In South America, parts
of Asia, most of Eastern Europe and even some countries in Western
Europe, banks have almost not started at all. Any company operating in
these countries face a heightened risk that the banks they do business
with will have a computer failure that could knock the banks out."

301.50

For those that wanted S.Kaplan's site
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html
It works, I just accessed it.

JTF--I remember the '73-'74 political and economic climate. This is eerily similar.

298.50

RESCUING ASIAN ECONOMIES WILL MEAN
A $100 BILLION INTERNATIONAL BAILOUT
November
12, 1997

The recent financial troubles of Asia are beginning to reveal the
magnitude of the problem and their international effects. The main story
in the current issue of Business Week magazine says that the health of
the global economy is at stake. The most complex bailout in history is
being planned combining the efforts of the International Monetary Fund,
the World Bank, the U.S. Treasury Department, private investment
bankers, and big multinational banks perhaps to the tune of more than
$100 billion. However, analysts believe that Asia's bailout will not
succeed unless the region's leaders change their habit of borrowing "far
more money than could be prudently invested."

where are you guys finding current gold and silver quotes?

301.50....but why? Is there a reason or is this some cruel joke?

Reify
Sorry for the delay.
This ones for you and the rest are winging your way home.
Please share:


Martin Buber I

There is no contest
Between Thou and I
So clear am I to Thee
And as clear am I of Thee.

No contest
Thou art my God
And I
Am well content in Thee
Rest all my confidence
Find all my strength
In Thee.

No contest
Between thou and me
Thou art my God
I have no life
No world no work
No hope or plea
Not anything
Of this worlds wealth
Or bitter woe
My spirit
Soars exultant, sings
Only of Thou and me.

If gold is really at 302 per ounce an immediate joke is need to maintain the sanity of many, including myself, at this site. So without further fanfare, trumpet or drum roll behold the joke of the day.

Santa was very cross. It was Christmas Eve and NOTHING was
going right. Mrs Claus had burned all the cookies. The elves
were complaining about not getting paid for the overtime they
had while making the toys. The reindeer had been drinking all
afternoon and were dead drunk. To make matters worse, they had
taken the sleigh out for a spin earlier in the day and had
crashed it into a tree.

Santa was furious. "I can't believe it! I've got to deliver
millions of presents all over the world in just a few hours -
all of my reindeer are drunk, the elves are on strike and I don't
even have a Christmas tree!

I sent that stupid Little Angel out HOURS ago to find a tree
and he isn't even back yet! What am I going to do?"

Just then, the Little Angel opened the front door and stepped
in from the snowy night, dragging a Christmas tree. He says
"Yo, fat man! Where do you want me to stick the tree this year?"

And thus the tradition of angels atop the Christmas
trees came to pass........

December gold down $6.70. EB on the money again. This probably means the Dow will turn down in a serious way very soon. After yesterdays Dow and XAU rallies, I didn't expect gold to be hammered again so soon. Someone must expect serious trouble in the markets very shortly.

Seems like $300 will be cracked very soon -- quite possibly today. The $285 1995 low may also be tested in short order. This selling climax is truly brutal. If we hit $285, XAU probably will drop to 60 or lower. Looks like a lot more pain before the inevitable huge gain.

I thought COMEX gold trading started at 8:20 EST. Have they changed it?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/european_gold_opens__1.html

Scott & Crystal Ball: You may find what you are looking for here:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

The Dec Futures price is down to 302 ... Silver being hammered as well.
Kitco still at 306 and 5.14. See:
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?SOURCE=core/dbc

http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/Commodities/ ( hope there's no dyslexic slips )

There must be a surprise in the Price Index report due in a few minutes.

George ... Globex is slipping lower in the last 30 minutes ... something is up ... as you say

With gold down ahead of the report there must be some very deflationary news in the report.

Friends, you're not going to believe the e-mail I just received--
I really thought this was a joke! But it isn't.... Our world is warped.... Please read and pass this on.

daniel b

"Reason to not party anymore"-
or better yet, Why I don't trust anyone!!!!!!!

This guy went out last Saturday night to a party. He was having a good time, had a couple of beers and some girl seemed to like him and invited him to go to another party. He quickly agreed and decided to go along with her.

She took him to a party in some apartment and they continued to drink, and even got involved with some other drugs ( unknown which ) .

The next thing he knew, he woke up completely naked in a bathtub filled with ice. He was still feeling the effects of the drugs, but looked around to see he was alone. He looked down at his chest, which had "CALL 911 OR YOU WILL DIE" written on it in lipstick. He saw a phone was on a stand next to the tub, so he picked it up and dialed.

He explained to the EMS operator what the situation was and that he didn't know where he was, what he took, or why he was really calling.

She advised him to get out of the tub. He did, and she asked him to look himself over in the mirror.

He did, and appeared normal, so she told him to check his back. He did, only to find two 9 inch slits on his lower back. She told him to get back in the tub immediately, and they sent a rescue team over.

Apparently, after being examined, he found out more of what had happened. His kidneys were stolen.

They are worth 10,000 dollars each on the black market. ( I was unaware this even existed. ) Several guesses are in order: The second party was a sham, the people involved had to be at least medical students, and it was not just recreational drugs he was given.

Regardless, he is currently in the hospital on life support, awaiting a spare kidney. The University of Texas in conjunction with Baylor University Medical Center is conducting tissue research to match the sophomore student with a donor.


I wish to warn you about a new crime ring that is targeting business travelers. This ring is well organized, well funded, has very skilled personnel, and is currently in most major cities and recently very active in New Orleans.

The crime begins when a business traveler goes to a lounge for a drink at the end of the work day. A person in the bar walks up as they sit alone and offers to buy them a drink. The last thing the traveler remembers until they wake up in a hotel room bath
tub, their body submerged to their neck in ice, is sipping that drink.

There is a note taped to the wall instructing them not to move and to call 911. A phone is on a small table next to the bathtub for them to call.

The business traveler calls 911 who have become quite familiar with this crime. The business traveler is instructed by the 911 operator to very slowly and carefully reach behind them and feel if there is a tube protruding from their lower back. The business traveler finds the tube and answers, "Yes." The 911 operator tells them to remain still, having already sent paramedics to help. The operator knows that both of the business traveler's kidneys have been harvested.

This is not a scam or out of a science fiction novel, it is real. It is documented and confirmable. If you travel or someone close to you travels, please be careful.

Sadly, this is very true. My husband is a Houston Firefighter/EMT and they have received alerts regarding this crime ring. It is to be taken very seriously.

The daughter of a friend of a fellow firefighter had this happen to her. Skilled doctor's are performing these crimes! ( which, by the way have been highly noted in the Las Vegas area ) . Additionally, the military has received alerts regarding this. This story blew me away. I really want as many people to see this as possible so please
bounce this to whoever you can.

Michele Shafer - DML/Lab Administration
Medical Manager Research & Development
15151 N.W. 99th Street
Alachua, Florida 32615
Tel. ( 904 ) 462-2148
Fax ( 904 ) 462-1505

Holy cow!!! Dec. gold down 7.10---another GREAT call Mr.EB!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/markets_precious_1.html

On such a grim day for gold bugs, good one Tort!!

Crystal Ball: That story you posted is a myt that has been floating around the Internet for 3 years. There is ABSOLUTELY no truth to it. As a matter of fact, it was mentioned on a t.v. repot I saw on Internet lore.

Jim Rodgers on CNBC puppet vision.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/dutch_central_bank_h_1.html

Crystall Ball: "What this world is coming to" is a condition in which some people will believe almost anything they find on the web. Your indignance about the "story" says it all.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971113/gold_price_used_to_m_1.html

Dec. gold @ 303 ( down 5.80 ) 300.50 was the low so far this mornin...The U.S. Dollar is soaring like an eagle...Nick ( C ) was tempted to buy NEM yesterday--glad I didn't!

S.KOREAN RIOT POLICE DETAIN CENTRAL BANK PROTESTERS.

Ted-- good thing you waited. Buy it today.

Could this be ye olde panic spike bottom in the yellow stuff?

Bart .. is your spot display on the frames version working? ( Or it stuck? at 306.70 and 5.14?? )

Ted -- It's snowing here. We have sleet, freezing rain, and snow for today. Oh, and I see gold just jumped off of the roof today. It's a good day to go back to sleep......

Not too great here either...boy,am I glad I didn't use some of the R.E. money yesterday to buy NEM---some of your best trades ( moves ) are the ones you don't make!! Hope this weather thingy improves as am thinking of a New England trip in the next few days...

December gold now UP 20 cents according to DBC. If truye this could be the big turn we have all been waitning for.

December gold now UP 20 cents according to DBC. If true this could be the big turn we have all been waiting for.

IF, I realize it is a big if, we saw a V bottom in the XAU over the past few days would you not expect a V bottom in the metal to follow?

In order to get a new Dow/Gold Ratio higher than 26.2 you would need a Dow at 7800 with spot at 297.50. That is possible I suppose but unlikely in my opinion. Would it be wise to hold stocks over the weekend with Japan, Korea and Iraq news so gloomy? I think not. Today has a better chance of being a Dow down day than an up day. Can someone give an opinion on what those who are short gold will do at these prices? I would be tempted to cover and take my profit.

Panda -- before you go back to sleep-- buy some gold/shares.

Ted: New England trip? We have 35F and raining on our "semi-island" but it is freezing rain just 3 miles inland. Are you coming down this far?

What's the URL?

Looks like that green DBC number was a mistake. Sorry mates!



S.Africa gold index slides as bullion plumbs lows

JOHANNESBURG, Nov 14 ( Reuters ) - South Africa's key gold share index slid nearly four percent on Friday, falling to
troughs last hit in January 1993, as the dollar bullion price fixed at a new 12 -1/2 year low.

By 1250 GMT the gold index, which has been ailing near five year lows for several weeks, had lost 32.3 points or 3.98
percent to 779.7.

``What's driving the fall is the decline in the gold price,'' said Duncan Ingram, an analyst at Edey Rogers.

He said the fact that it was Friday may have exaggerated the reaction as investors rushed to cover positions ahead of the
weekend.

``They don't want to be left naked over the weekend with short positions... You can have quite violent swings on a Friday
which would compound what we are seeing,'' Ingram said.

Anglo ( AACJ.J ) , the world's biggest gold producer fell over 6.5 percent to 183 rand as fellow mining houses Gencor
( GMFJ.J ) lost 11 percent to 775 cents and Gold Fields ( GLDF.J ) shed 13 percent to 61 rand.

Bullion earlier fixed in London at $304.50, its lowest fixing since the middle of March 1985. Soon after it touched a low of
$299.50 bid and London dealers noted steady selling throughout Asia and Europe. Central bank sales were also rumoured.

Analysts said the sudden depreciation of South Africa's rand, which earlier touched a record low of 4.8640 bid against the
U.S. dollar, was not supporting gold stocks.

Weakness in the rand against the dollar benefits gold mining companies as most of their sales are dollar based.

``Right now, I don't think people are really looking at the depreciation of the rand as they are more concerned about the gold
price,'' another analyst who asked not to be named, said.

Dec. Gold @ $302.2

Given that there are huge short positions in gold, their reasonable strategy would be to scare up some volume without bringing in serious buying interest. They are in a dangerous position and playing a dangerous game if it backfires.

Avid Chatter:
Nobody cares but the data was bearish. PPI was expected -0.1 and was +o.1. third
monthly increase after 7 months of decline.

october retail sales ( ex autos ) up 0.4 ( 0.2 expected )

odd isn't it that bonds are up and gold is down on such news? this may be the
very trough or bottom in inflationary expectations. everyone "knows" that inflation is
long since dead, so statistics don't matter. nor does war or anything else.......

odd isn't it that bonds are up and gold is down on such news? this may be the
very trough or bottom in inflationary expectations. everyone "knows" that inflation is
long since dead, so statistics don't matter. nor does war or anything else.......

Mornin Donald! Nope,I think Machias Maine will be as far 'south' as I meander this trip but a visit to NYC is in the cards within the next few months...Dec. gold @ 301.90 down 6.90 ( so bad that Mark Haynes just mentioned this fact!! )

Dec Gold DOWN $6.10. What is going on?????????

Does this explain anything:

nvestors put $21 billion into mutual funds that invest in U.S.
stocks last month, despite the financial crisis in Asia that led to a global stock market
shakeout. The flow of dollars into mutual funds declined from the $25.8 billion invested
in September but it was still the fourth largest month this year. Industry analysts were
surprised by the strength. Full story at site link

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971112/ft_newspaper_denies__1.html

Watch the gold stock volume carefully today. If it soars to truly huge levels, the bottom could either be in or very close. But if we drop sharply on low or modest volume, the worst is yet to come.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971112/s_korean_gold_defaul_1.html

Dec Gold DOWN $6.10. What is going on?????????

what is going on with gold?

what is going on with gold?

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971114/business/stories/funds_2.html

That story about stolen kidneys is a hoax... its been bouncing around
the internet for at least 6 months now

Don't see much comment about Plat. and Pall. I'm looking to buy Plat. coins and more SWC.when gold bottoms. A high vol. down day in gold stks with a close near the days high might get me to add to plat. position.

$ilverbug and Crystal Ball - I do not want to become involved in an ongoing controversy
as I have not absolutely verified this story by interviewing the purported victim, BUT, My
eldest daughter was going with a young man for 2 1/2 years and just before they went to
Europe two years ago I was doing the fatherly thing and warning caution wherever they
went etc. The young man then told me the storey of his cousin partying in Las Vegas, had
got very drunk and woke up in a hotel room in the bathtub with ice-cubes etc. The young
man seemed to be honestly telling a family tragedy and had always been a quiet person
not given to telling such wild stories. At the time I didn't doubt that what he was saying
was true. This was told to me in person by the young man about May 1996.

Nick -- The plan of the last few weeks has been to scale in to gold shares in small lots on down days like this. Can't pick the bottom, so we'll do something more dangerous! Average down!

Disclaimer: Averaging down is one of the worst things you can do. It means that you're in denial about your investment market. I never said I was sane.

the sequence of co-ordinated hammering down of gold prices simply indicates the desperation of the Fed & other CBs. They are throwing every ounce of metal at the market now ... it will vanish just as fast. I'm buyign the metal this morning. Thanks Greenspan et al - when your "elaborate plan" comes crashing down, you'll have plenty of explaining to do, provided there's a pay phone where-ever you've choosen to hide.

Panda: Sit tight. It's going to be a long day. The gold shorts are in a very scary situation. Very scary.

Steady - As I mentioned last week Dec. gold had made a double bottom on the charts
at about $308. We had a nice technical bounce from there very quickly up to about
$315 and then started falling back. When it appeared that $308 was not going to hold
this was a signal we were going lower. In my post last week I mentioned that if $308
was violated we could probably expect a very rapid drop in the $5-10 area. Guess what?
Some people here discount charts, but everyday we have examples that they
work, this being one of the more obvious. As for today's huge drop, it is obvious that
chart's work because of the huge following of charts around the world. There must
have been massive sell orders in N.Y. based on the breach of the support area.
Nothing terribly unusual if you study charts. As for why Silver is doing so much better
lately, there has been no technical support level being violated on Silver and also we
probably have some 'switching' from gold to silver. Caution is the word today,
however, as Silver cannot stay up at these levels if ALL the other precious are falling
in tandem as seems to be the case today.

Considering world financial and political situation, what is happening to gold goes against any logic and reason.
It must be either because old rules do not apply any more, or because someone is fighting gold with all their power. I think it is the latter. Consequently we must be wittnessing the early stage ( defensive onslaught on gold ) of something like what ANOTHER and BT has been disscussing on this site. I believe that we are on a verge of a major breakout ( no news to most on this site ) within three months.

In my opinion, the convenient escalation of problems with Iraq is a diversionary smoke screen to take most media and people's attention away form the spreading financial crisis. All governments and Kitco members know and understand how bad it is, and will get, but the average Joe does not.
As Bill Buckler quoted AR in his newsletter "Dont' bother examining a folly, see what it acomplishes" is very applicable right now. What is happening with gold doesn't seem to make sense, until we see what it acomplishes.

Bart, what is happening? Every time there is action in the markets your site goes down???

Bart, what is happening? Every time there is action in the markets your site goes down??? I think you shoud change ISP's.

Very high volume in the major gold stocks today. HM has traded over a million shares the first hour. This COULD BE the selling climax, but we need a strong reversal off the lows to be sure.

What a day. Toronto is in chaos because of first snow fall and Kitco in chaos because --too many trying to get through the barnyard gate at once. Currently at 301 and looks like $250 may not be such a bad prediction after all. It may be a world wide conspiracy but I still think it is because "nobody wants the stuff" right now. Money continues to drive up the TSE and the Mutual fund tax madness hasn't even started yet.

Craps - the dice are loaded and the House always makes a profit.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/bs_markets_gold_low_1.html

Now the secret can finally be revealed.

Hepcat=Alan Greenspan...Sound farfetched?
What about OJ, Jimmy Swaggart, Marv...the list is endless. All is definitely not as it appears to be. Remember! He did warn us....of our "irrational exuberance"....both here and on his appearances before congress.

Is this website attached to market circuit breakers today or what????

possible exhaustion gap , however unless any rise is co incident with a rise in the Canadian dollar, anygains will be temp.

and PRAY that there are no more posts from Another

The financial community seems to want to emphasize that gold is at a 12 year low. Let me use the Dow/Gold Ratio to show you why "this time it's different".

In 1985, twelve years ago, the Dow/Gold Ratio was 4.0. Clearly a time to favor Dow stocks over gold. At the time of the most recent gold low, January, 1993 the Dow/Gold Ratio was at 9.0, again clearly a time to own stocks according to the 100 year record of the Dow/Gold Ratio.

Now the Dow/Gold Ratio is at 24.0, down from 26.2. It is still higher than 1929 and down only slightly from 1966. Those dates were the two worst times in the past 100 years to own stocks. This is the third worst time; this time the twelve year low in gold is occurring at a time when stocks are out of favor and although gold could go lower it will prove to be a time when stocks were not a good investment. Gold is at or very close to a bottom; stocks have miles to go on the downside. This time it is different, at least for gold.

Using the similar analysis let's examine the XAU in the same manner. Twelve years ago the XAU was at 70. The XAU/Spot Ratio did not reach its low until 18 months later when it touched .146 with an XAU reading of 60. In retrospect we can see that gold, the XAU and the XAU/Spot Ratio all reached a low point at the same time. On this occasion the XAU/Spot Ratio was a coincidental indicator for gold stocks.

Using the next major date of January, 1993, the low in bullion followed a XAU/Spot Ratio low of .189 set in November, 1992, three months earlier when the XAU had touched bottom at 65. On this occasion the XAU/Spot Ratio was a three month leading indicator for gold stocks.

We may receive some better readings in the future that provide a clearer picture about mining stocks but it is apparent we are near a safe entry point if it has not already passed.

D.A. - I can't remember if you accepted my gentlemen's bet. But if you did then I win the bragging rights. That shiny gold 1oz coin was hanging perilously close to my mailbox, no? I will say this ( only once and only because it is proper after 'bragging rights' betting ) :

I WIN!! YAHOO!!

ok...nuff cheering...on to the markets...oh wait a second...

Cherokee...oh seer of things...There is a NEW bottom today. 300 ( in case you missed it ) I trust that your comments last night were meant jokingly and there is no malice between us. I am following a trend. This is something that our freind KR tells us to obey always. I am just doing what I've been taught. You understand ;- ) One good thing...those calls are getting cheaper...but I would still wait...

Gold at 202.4...and holding...this is the final spike...

NOT!!!!!


away...to w/w the total breakdown
eautiful Day!!$$!

crystal ball - try this for gold and silver AND other futures
http://www.futuresource.com go to delayed quotes...it is a VERY good page...oh my!


One other GOOD thing today. Our famous PUNDIT LGB is NO LONGER 100%!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thank God!!!!!

Dow now off 50+. Looks like today's sharp spike down in gold was signalling trouble in the market afterall.

Test

All: It must be eminently clear to everyone now ( not just a few Kitcoites ) that gold/goldstocks will go down whenever there is major downside risk in the markets. This will continue for some time -- possibly with some gold/gold stock rallies when the stock markets are quiet.
I think the market downside risk will exist for some time now - at least weeks to months. Until then, don't expect a bull market in gold/gold stocks. Can't have that "fear" indicator -- the rising gold price -- can we? Also - we must be careful not to put too much emphasis on TA during these turbulent times. Now -- silver is another matter!

But the bigger worries about the global financial system center
not on U.S. banks but on Japanese banks. "The real problem that
would keep the world awake would be a cracking of the banking
system in Japan," said James Annable, chief economist at First
Chicago/NBD in Chicago.
Weakened in the early 1990s by the twin crashes in Japan's
stock market and real estate market, Japan's banking giants remain
saddled with hundreds of billions of dollars in bad loans.
Now, the economic crashes across the rest of Asia are sure to
add to those bad loans, as some Asian companies that had
borrowed from Japanese banks find themselves unable to make
payments, with their currencies devalued by 30% or more against
the Japanese yen.
What's more, Japanese exporters, which sold 40% of their total
exports last year to Southeast Asia, face the prospect of much
lower sales in 1998. That could further dampen economic activity in
Japan, creating a new drag on the struggling banking system.
Deepening concerns about the health of Japanese banks have
forced many of those institutions to pay more for money in the
global borrowing market in recent weeks, as other banks add a
"risk premium" of as much as 0.2 of a percentage point to the rate
they charge Japanese banks to borrow.
And fears that the Japanese economy overall--still the world's
second-largest, after the United States--is headed back into
recession have triggered a sell-off in the yen in recent weeks, driving
its value down to nearly 126 to the dollar, a six-month low.
* * *
In addition, the Japanese stock market has fallen to its lowest
level in more than two years.
If Japan should spiral into recession or into a full-blown banking
crisis, many economists concede that they would be forced to
further lower U.S. economic growth estimates.
For its part, Japan still seems uncertain about how to deal with
its massive problems.
"I'm amazed that Japan talks about putting together a bailout
package for Southeast Asia, when they should be putting together a
bailout package for Japan," Fosler said.
Yet many experts doubt that the worst-case scenario--a failure
of a major Japanese bank--is likely to occur, simply because the
Japanese government is certain to stand behind its major institutions.

"I don't see the biggest banks falling apart in Japan," said Henry
Kaufman, economist at Henry Kaufman & Co. in New York.
At the same time, however, he said that policymakers in the
United States and elsewhere are facing the reality that there is no
easy way to deal with the collapse of many Southeast Asian
economies, the likelihood that Latin America now will suffer a
growth slowdown as well, and Japan's ingrained financial woes.
While Greenspan suggested Thursday that the crisis needs to be
brought to a quick close, exactly how to do that remains unclear.
Unlike with the Mexican peso devaluation of 1994, which
brought the United States quickly to Mexico's aid, Asia's troubles
now are so widespread--with contagion also infecting Japan and
Latin America--that "this crisis has no center, and therefore no
quick fix," Annable said.
International Monetary Fund rescues are already planned for
Thailand and Indonesia. But South Korea may also need help,
experts warn. And that leaves little leeway for unforeseen turmoil
elsewhere.
For now, the best-case scenario is that no additional shocks hit
the world economy and that U.S. consumers and companies, and
perhaps European consumers and companies as well, maintain a
strong pace of spending and investment to offset the weakness
elsewhere in the world.
And should the global economy suddenly appear in much
greater danger of sliding into recession or a banking crisis, central
banks outside Japan have one final, and powerful, weapon at their
disposal: They could slash short-term interest rates to essentially
pour money into the world financial system.
http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/NATION/topstory.html

Date: Fri Nov 14 1997 11:27
George Cole ( gold and Dow ) ID#42953:
Dow now off 50+. Looks like today's sharp spike down in gold was signalling trouble in the market
afterall.

George where are you getting these Dow readings???? Industrials up 5.65.

George ... DBC is giving "goofy" data every now and then. The Dow is not off 50 points ...In fact it was up 5 ...

Some thoughts from the past:


He that goes borrowing goes a sorrowing.


It is hard for an empty sack to stand upright.

Ben Franklin


What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly; it is dearness only that gives everything its value.

Thomas Paine


I have but one lamp by which my feet are guided, and that is the lamp of experience. I know of no way of judging the future but by the past.

Patrick Henry

Tolerant1 Since you come from the intellengience community, I thought you would enjoy this site. http://www.aci.net/kalliste/

The market was up +60 points and then 1/2 hour later it was down -52. Wow, lots of action. Money to be made or lost. A person has to be very nimble to "make it" in these times.

YESTERDAYS WORLD BREAKING NEWS form London, New York and other global money centers was thoroughly foreseen by Ted Butler nearly six months ago. It was announced Germanys Bundesbank admitted to a policy of LENDING BULLION TO GOLD PRODUCERS and JEWELRY INDUSTRY!!

Internationally recognized analyst Butler make an incisive and insightful review of the heretofore COVERT CENTRAL BANK ACTIVITIES OF GOLD LENDING. This report was first posted at GOLD-EAGLE in August of this year. And consequent to todays monumental revelation by the most conservative Central Bank in all Europe, we are obliged to repost Mr. Butlers study, which rings with logic and clarity in emphatically stating the GOLD LENDING PRACTICE RAMIFICATIONS BY CENTRAL BANKS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE YELLOW METAL TO SOAR IN VALUE.

When Central Banks awake from their stupor & stop giving away their GOLD for free, supply side of metal fundamentals will develop an immediate vacuum & Gold prices will SOAR:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler816.html

Yes Mooney, it was a very nice call.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/07/z0009_60.html

I put up two news items yesterday that gave a clear indication of
today's action.Traders said simply that if Gold broke below 308,the funds
would attack and test the 300 $ level.As for the Routers news of gold
being quoted below 300$ ( WE know it did'nt trade there ) how much you expect
the funds are paying these guys anyway.har har

JTF:Yes my friend...have been saying this for some time now with hopes
of saving some lurkers and contributors the pain of losses by not seeing
the double whammy effect gold stocks were facing.GSC:How or why in the
heck would major money move into gold stocks if the general market were
in deccline?I just can't find reason to your analysis.Thanks.

HepCat: I'm not sure if you're AG or maybe just AG's doctor/confidant but it is obvious that you either know the right person or you are the luckiest person on this site. Is this the low?

My tip o' the hat to you, . Good call! Gold schmold. Can't eat it. Bring me a pound of Godiva chocolate to drown my sorrows!

Bill: Like my father said. You have no idea who is on whose side. The best side to be on is you own. A shame we cannot say that for our government.

Mooney-thanks for the info. I just wonder, based on what we are seeing around us, if R. Prechter is right about his assersion that a historic deflationary crash is upon us. He predicts gold well under $200 with the DOW well below 1000 within a short time. He claims that economic/social/political consequences will be unbelievable. Sounds extreme but he is the one that back in 1982 predicted the DOW going to 5000. At that time that prediction was totally insane. He claims that one should stay in cash now and at the bottom of this disaster, when the government starts hyperinflating us out of it, switch all cash to gold. Meanwhile, that would mean that all shares, including gold shares??? will be worthless or much less. I think with XAU close to 70 and many juniors down 70-90%, we in the gold market have crashed to just about the bottom. XAU is now at where it was Jan 1993 when the DOW was about 3000. What do you think???

WATCHER.
I AGREE WITH YOU THE REAL HIDDEN CONSPIRACY IS RIGHT HERE AMONG THE DISGUISED HANDLES OF SOME OF THE LOUDEST BEARS, ITS EASY TO SPOT SOME OF THEM CAUSE THEY STINK UP THE PLACE WITH THEIR ROTTED LOGIC AND THEY HOG-THE-WIRE ! LOSING INTEREST FAST IN THIS SITE.

DONALD: Good observations on the DOW/Gold and XAU/Gold ratios. But keep in mind that since the last lows, the value of the companies have change. Barrick, the main component of the XAU is now selling for US$85 per proven,probable and possible ounces they have in the ground. At the 1992 low, Barrick sold for US$143. By all standard, Barrick has never been that cheap. The same is true for many other stocks.

This shake out in the gold market should have a salutory effect in the longer term. If we should finish at the high of the trading range for the day ( but still down from yesterday's close ) , we are setting the stage for what is known as an "island reversal bottom" should gold gap open higher on Monday ( C'mon Saddam, dare ya to step over this line! ) If we manage to close higher on the day today ( possible if not likely ) , then we have a key reversal day. Either way, the trend will then turn up.

Massive currencies devaluations and stock market crashes! Absolute financial chaos reigns in South East Asia - This is spilling over into Japan, Australia, Europe and the US of A. Furthermore, Japanese Banks have accounted for 90% of foreign bank lending in Hong Kong. Not surprisingly in the morning of November 10th, there began a run on a Hong Kong bank... this could become contagious across Asia. Hong Kong is known for having the strongest banks in Asia. SO if there are runs on Hong Kong banks, then we can only imagine what will happen elsewhere... and the consequential ramifications for all the economies in Asia - and eventually the rest of the world.

A Financial Tsunami is Looming in Land of SETTING Sun. What inevitably follows will be the total collapse of their banking system. Japan will indeed be forced to dump US T-Bonds in order to defend the home economy. Subsequently, they will buy gold as they fight for economic and financial survival - evaluate for yourself:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html

November 14, 1997
London spot gold bid below $300 an ounce

LONDON ( Reuters ) - Spot gold prices slid below the psychologically significant $300 per ounce level Friday when it was quoted at $299.50.
The price at the morning fixing was set at $304.50 an ounce -- its lowest since March 1985 and down from $308.15 Thursday afternoon.

"Selling came in from all sides. In New York the funds were getting out," one dealer said. Gold prices have been under pressure for months on fears that the central banks would sell metal from their reserves of
around 34,000 metric tons.

News this week that Germany's Bundesbank had begun to lend gold to the market was taken bearishly, with some market professionals saying this was a step toward outright selling.

"Concerns about the central banks are not positive for gold," one dealer said. "Even if they are not selling, the fact they have started lending continues the trend of the banks utilizing their reserves," a
dealer said.

The Bundesbank is the second-biggest gold holder in the world after the United States with 3,700 metric tons of metal in its vaults. Market analysts have estimated the Bundesbank has put about 10 percent of its metal up for lending.

The central banks in United States and Switzerland, in different ways, have also haunted the gold market recently. Last month the Swiss government anmmounced that if it revalued its gold reserves closer to current market prices and decoupled the Swiss franc from its gold backing, then 1,400 tons of gold could be sold.

Gold fell $12 from $323 before the announcement Friday, Oct. 24, to $311.50 when London opened the next Monday. The impact was particularly acute as Switzerland was the last major economy with its currency partially -- 40 percent -- backed by gold.
Two weeks later Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan stated that domestic inflation was overstated by one percentage point. This flew in the face of ideas that U.S. inflation might be growing and gold's historic role as a store of value and hedge against inflation could be revitalized

JTF: Your 11:31 - O am absolutely agree with your statement: "It must be eminently clear to everyone now ( not just a few Kitcoites ) that gold/goldstocks will go down whenever there is major downside risk in the markets".
I have posted here several times, that at present time Dow and Gold correlate positively. There where some charts about it too. I red somewhere, that before 1987 crash there was the same picture - positive correlation between Dow and Gold. I can not find this article back. I was intend to calculate it myself, but I have no data for 1987. I have asked help ( reference or file posted here ) , but there was no respond. I think, my post about Dow/Gold correlation higher then +80% was seen as simply one more try to irritate goldbugs.

Truth, I think Watcher's comment ( Hep=Greenspan ) was said tounge in cheek. Don't lose interest, stick around.

Don't trust the quote services - 20 min. ago MoneyNet had quoted VGZ over 3.4million shares traded, now shows only 44000.

steady
Interesting post about Prechter. I think that we will stay in the $290-315 for some time. Below $200? Possible, but is it probable?

TRUTH
Well leave if it bothers you so much. It's OK.
Just Go. Sorry that everyone bothered you so much. I am surprised you stayed this long.
Good luck!

This morning's action in gold is looking more and more like an exhaustion gap. No follow through to the initial pounding, and there must be immense physical demand in the cash market at this price.

November 14, 1997
Yamaichi defends financial state after share crash

TOKYO ( Reuters ) - Yamaichi Securities Co. Ltd.'s stock plunged Friday below 100 yen -- a level that brokers said generally indicated a company was on the brink of collapse.

Shares of Yamaichi, the smallest of Japan's "Big Four" brokers, hit a record low of 96 yen before closing at exactly 100, down 18.7 percent.

An official at the Finance Ministry told Reuters that the ministry did not think Yamaichi was in any financial trouble.

Still, Yamaichi shares have lost more than half their value since Nov. 5, when they closed at 228 yen, and are down more than 80 percent from the beginning of the year.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BROKERS-YAMAICHI.html

tougne=tongue

Thanks A. Goose but please Major what is this about your trader friends just yesterday saying all this about the breakdown if $308 is breeched? THEY must have been reading from my Kitco comment here LAST Thurs. or Fri. morning! Any good chart follower could see that one coming! Right EB, APH, Front, etc. Etc. ETC. at KITCO!

nomercy ( Asian flu ) ID#390214:

Yes, nomercy Japans Banks are in BIG trouble. We should kid ourselves, its not the magic 15000 level its in that area. 5082.52 is going to drive some banks into major trouble this weekend. The Japanese government may stand behind these banks, but they will have to take actions that will rock the finacial markets of the world, and yes even the U.S. market. These troubles out of asia is not the flu it is the EBOLA VIRUS.

JTF:
You are doing a great job, you certainly have been on target.

All:
At what point, if any, will the dropping warehouse stocks impact the market? At what point, if any, will the dropping gold prices indicate a terrible deflationary spiral? At what point, if any, will the shorts cover? At what point, if any, will South Africa close all its mines? At what point, if any, will gold companies be unable to forward sell above their costs? At what point, if any, will the Japanese sell U.S. bonds?

There is a price of gold where these questions will be answered. Whatever it is I suspect will see it soon. The following question, is what will gold do then? If it rises will it be slow and gradual or fast and quick. It is spiking down, and I think it will spike up. With the terrible currency environment we are living in, I suspect it will move to levels that many others have forecast for far to long.
Some people will always be able to react quickly to the rise, but guys like me will be to slow. So I am in to early ( as usual ) , and will have to feel the pain throughout the process. The essential point for me, is that we have a full blown WORLD CURRENCY CRISIS and sooner or later paper ( the U.S. dollar included ) will crash and the lowly gold market will rise.

Crystal Ball: Very good post about a possible bottom next week. I'm not sure about next week, but I have been arguing recently that this is the final capitulation and the bottom will be in VERY SOON. With gold stock volume surging and nary a bull to be found even on this site, that still is my expectation.

Thanks A. Goose but please, Major, what is this about your trader friends just yesterday saying all this about the breakdown if $308 is breeched? THEY must have been reading from my Kitco comment here LAST Thurs. or Fri. morning! Any good chart follower could see that one coming! Right EB, APH, Front, etc. Etc. ETC. at KITCO!

The Major, steady, Mooney, all: We need to stop thinking just about what gold and gold stocks will do -- and concentrate on the stock markets! That is what is driving our topsy-turvy gold market.

Forget what price gold should bottom at -- just think about what the "powers that be" will do whenever the markets or our financial system are at risk. Only then will you understant what to do with your gold and gold stocks.
Weeks to months from now, the stock market will drop to an equilibrium point - crisis over - interest rates will plumment, and gold/gold stocks will rise to what they should be without all of this intervention. Personally, I think it is too soon to buy gold stocks -- unless you want to trade bear market rallies.

The US moving another carrier onto the IRAQ, US chess board does what. Nothing. What type of military action could they take at this point. This stiuation could lead to grave, very grave developments. And the development of a lot more graves.

President Clinton does not have the same situation in place that existed the last go round. People speculating that this is not a very serious matter simply do not understand the cross-sectional tensions that are being ignited.

JTF,
Agreed 100%!

BUY IT! BUY IT! All the way down. 'Til you can buy for less than they can dig it out of the ground. I don't know who, if anyone, is responsible for these rediculously low gold prices. But if I did, I'd kiss'em full on the lips. :- )

JTF, there is some wisdom in suggesting we play a wait and see position now as gold tests the $300 support level when it comes to gold stocks. If I had known in March what I know now about the gold markets, I would have stuck to my "cash is king" theory that those with deep cash pockets in these volatile markets will be the ones who have resources to buy the dips, the dips of July, November and today's even lower dips. Never forget the wisdom of dollar cost averaging but always adopt prudence. For my money, wait and see what happens with gold over the next week and see where there are some bottoms then look at the options of senior gold producers who still have the fundamentals that make them both viable ( efficient low cost producers ) and still with a healthy balance sheet and good cash positions.

SOROS & APEX SILVER... A screaming buy signal for SILVER !!!!! Read the SEC filings.

Rumours about Silver

1 ) A Hedge fund or several hedge funds are to gain control of the silver market due to the low silver stocks ( COMEX at a 12 year low ) etc.

2 ) Silvers demand supply imbalance should indicate an upwards adjustment in the silver price.

FACTS:

APEX SILVER filed documents for an Initial Public Offering with the SEC on August 29, 1997. SEE WWW.Sec.gov/cgi-bin/srch-edgar

The Directors of the Company are:

1 ) Paul SOROS - Brother of George SOROS
2 ) Richard Katz - "Former director of Rothschild & Sons London England..Member of the board of Supervisory directors of a number of investment funds affiliated with George SOROS"
3 ) Michael Comninos - Former Chair of N.M. Rothschild & Sons Guernsey

Page 27 of the IPO

The company is engaged in the exploration and development of silver... The company believes that it has accumulated one of the largest privately controlled portfolios of silver exploration properties in the world... The company was founded in 1993 to acquire and develop attractive silver properties throughout the world. Since 1993, the company has acquired a portfolio of silver properties covering two million acres in eight countries...
These acquisitions were premised on several factors, including ( i ) the low price of silver relative to the price of other precious metals ( ii ) a perception that silver supply and demand fundamentals were stronger than the then-prevailing price of silver suggested...

The company believed that the disequilibrium in supply and demand suggested that the "bear market" in silver was nearing an end.

Points for discussion:

1 ) The company has been purchasing the silver properties since 1993. SOROS and co have been financing this adventure out of pocket. SOROS must believe in the long term prospects for silver?

2 ) Why is there no press or other postings on this. I wonder what will happen to the silver price when this hits the general media.

Go silver Go ...

Donald,
If you're out there? I caught something yesterday about a Venezuelan oil workers strike ( proposed? ) - it was only a headline & I haven't been able to track it down ( is this *old* news? ) Something about 30 to 40% production cut. It was vague & I wasn't able to trace through the link. Anyone heard of this?
On gold - well, another Friday oh boy. Nice call .

Sorry ..."We should not kid ourselves, its not the magic 5000" instead of "We should kid ourselves, its not the magic 15000".

At least, I didn't type "sheap" for "cheap" today ( yet ) .

Mooney:I'm impressed.Traders not my friends,just some guys in the WSJ and
the Fin Times.You know..the amatures.So..where from here after" testing "
the 300$ mark?Will it fly like a turkey or get goosed again?

Every time I mention something that Soros fella just can't stop himself from buying it.

Like taking candy from a baby.

Are the dramatic market upheavals WORLDWIDE in recent weeks trying to tell us something that is NOT YET apparent?

The once mighty Tiger stock markets of Asia have seen securities prices decimated -- a week ago Hong Kongs Hang Seng Stock Market Average lost more than 10% in ONE TRADING SESSION - and continues its downward spiral! The Nikkei penetrated the psychologically important 17000 level - purportedly the sacrosanct value where the Japanese banking system begins to come apart at the seams. And late last night it came within a whisker of breaking 15000! Many South Sea currencies lambasted, and financial institutions beginning to crumble. The selling panic is spilling over into Wall Street, which is dragging down most European stock indices.

For some time prior to this gold has inexorably been wasting away... that is until a few weeks ago when it suffered a coup dgrace - diving more than $16 in a single day for a loss of 5%. And today, November 14, the yellow dove to $300. It is painfully obvious a draconian change is taking place... but what is the prime motive force... and its purpose?

I cannot discard the helpless feeling something is going on that is not readily apparent... at least not to me. Last night in shifting through all the worlds debris in search of some rhyme or reason for the cause of these dramatic market moves worldwide I reread the June report, SEVEN GOLDEN THREADS OF THE GLOBAL QUILT by the Oracle of Alberta - in which he alludes to the possibility of A SINGLE WORLD CURRENCY.

A Single World Currency? To contemplate such a scenario of power and control seems almost preposterous. But is it? Consider for a moment the events that would usher in a single world currency in an electronic medium. These might include: financial and stock market chaos; the collapse of the U.S. dollar, Yen or the stillbirth of the Euro; war in the Middle East; a worldwide banking crisis; or other global unrest.

Is the worldwide financial paradigm changing as we speak? Are global market forces reacting simply to imbalances, or is there a specific force orchestrating the financial and monetary machinations... and if the latter, what is their game-plan and purpose? The Oracle of Alberta has an intriguing and plausible idea of what is really going on:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html

If much of the Kitcoites information and thoughts are correct, this represents a devaluation in the Dollar. If they didn't do this the Price of Oil and other commodities valued in the dollar would shoot through the roof.

WHEN SELLING ONES GOODS, WHO WANTS TO RECEIVE DOLLARS or YEN THAT ARE NOT WORTH AS MUCH TODAY AS YESTERDAY AND THEN HAVE TO BUY GOLD AT THE SAME PRICE AS YESTERDAY?

This is not conspiracy talk, it just may be the exchange mechanism that has been put in place. They will naturally try to maintain the value of the Dollar and the Bonds as long as they can - THEY HAVE TO, THEY HAVE NO CHOICE!

The CRB was @ 243+ yesterday. What would the CRB be @ if Gold was @ 325 or 330, this would be a STRONG indication of inflation. The CRB is surprisingly high considering the price of Gold. I think this is how they are hiding the monetizing of the world debts.

OIL IS MOVING UP EVEN WITH GOLD DOWN
There are real currency devaluations out there.
I wonder what the price of Oil would be if Gold were at $325?

What is the dollar worth if it has to be supported with cheap Gold?
What would happen if Oil producers said I cant buy as much with your dollar, so I want $35 for my barrell of Oil?

I STILL THINK WE ARE NEAR THE BOTTOM.
But what the heck do I know!
Gold is down because I bought yesterday!

Major: You never saw a Scorpion raises it's tail, awaiting the stike signal for the kill have you?

Watch and learn. Throw away the FT and WSJ and catch a ring side seat fella.

The best way to do something is right in front of the whole, wide eyed world.

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971114/news/stories/congress_3.html

Financial system at risk.... don't think so. Get real JTF. The most important tid bit of economic data to come out this week was the 4.5% rise in productivity in the US economy. Thats a HUGE increase and one that falls right to the bottom line of corporations.

JD@esctasy, you must be on esctasy.... Gold looks like it is doing a dead cat bounce at $300. The only people who are estatic here are the gold shorts.

In an age when information and knowledge are the source of all value, gold will fall to the cost of production on the margin. Technology will see to it that that cost will continue to fall. The only long term direction for gold is DOWN.

Love you guys for your persistence in the face of reality. Reminds me of the Old Man and the Sea.... sometimes, ya just gotta believe.

As long as CBs are willing lenders of bullion it is unlikely that a bottom could be forecasted. The CB gold cartel determines the bottom and the turn. The A$ has lost value ( as with other Asian related currencies ) reletive to the US$ so the 3rd largest ( OZ ) gold producers continue to sell into gold forward for cash to net against current "capital" losses that are rolled forward against future profits. Can we really forecast a bottom under these unusual circumstances ?

Cheers

Evil Empire guy/girl, whatever: You do not find the damage being done in Japan is a major economic tidbit. I realize someone of your obvious mental capacity must at least see this in the news or where ever it is that you receive information from.

Do you not think this will imperil the Great Inflated Eagle?

Just curious?

Gold buggers: This is the final final low for gold and gold stocks and I would be buying but I'm staying on the beach with my head in the sand and my finger up me arse. The stock market has obviuosly run out of steam and the CRASH has beGUN--sell all stock and buy anything gold ( doesn't matter at this point-just buy anything golden )

U No WOOOO: Glad you know that there is no market turmoil, that Japan is in excellent shape, that Brazil will not have a financial crisis, and the business cycles have been eliminated. Also -- that the Kondratiev wave hase been eliminated.
I wonder how wealthy the Rothschilds would be if they had you as their investment advisor!

??

I would think Carl's report that US had voted down IMF funding should be a bearish signal. Yet stocks are climbing. Go figure.

Maybe gold's fall is nothing more than the growing realization ( preception ) that inflation is dead. Things don't look good IMveryHO.

Gold buggers: This is the final final low for gold and gold stocks and I would be buying but I'm staying on the beach with my head in the sand and my finger up me arse. The stock market has obviuosly run out of steam and the CRASH has beGUN--sell all stock and buy anything gold ( doesn't matter at this point-just buy anything golden ) golden showers anyone////

U No WHOOOO: Glad you know that there is no market turmoil, that Japan is in excellent shape, that Brazil will not have a financial crisis, and the business cycles have been eliminated. Also -- that the Kondratiev wave hase been eliminated. AND the 60 trillion dollar annual derivatives market, doubling every two years can be ignored.
I wonder how wealthy the Rothschilds would be if they had you as their investment advisor!
I do hope you are right but I doubt it! Everything goes in cycles - those who fail to learn from History are doomed to repeat it.

I would think Carl's report that US had voted down IMF funding should be a bearish signal. Yet stocks are climbing. Go figure.

Maybe gold's fall is due to nothing more than the growing realization ( preception ) that inflation is dead. Things don't look good IMveryHO.

Tolerant1, you are spending too much time in Tequilaville in a gold induced stupor. Wake up and smell the sake.

Japan's problems are ancient history. Their economy has been in a recession since 1990, has that hurt the US? Not that I have noticed.

If anything, the problems in Japan need to reach such a level in order to get the lazy, indolant Japanese government bureaucrats off their butts and hopefully out of the way. Japan needs some major big time restructuring, change never occurs without a crunch.... for the long run this is a positive for the Japanese if they can use it as an excuse to change.

In the short run, it means that U.S. based companies will continue to kick Japanese butt all over the world, if anything, that should be beneficial for US based companies and their equity prices

VRONSKY - I agree with your earlier post on the likely hood of a one world currency.

"As goes the currency, so goes the fate of the nation."

The Federal Reserve Bank ONLY lends notes to the government ( and the private sector ) because the assets ( labor, property, wealth, accounts,
bonds, bills, notes, deeds, etc. ) of the "enumerated" ( under Social Security ) population are deemed sufficient to collateralize the collective national
debt incurred and accrued by the government. As more and more people remove themselves from the enumeration program ( as they are doing in
droves even as we speak ) , the collateral will be deemed less and less sufficient to sustain further government borrowing. When enough people have
"left" the "system", the bank will no longer deem the government's collateral sufficient or creditworthy, AND WILL REFUSE TO LOAN IT ANY
MORE NOTES, AND WILL START TO DEMAND THE DEBT BE REPAID.

Without a supply of new "notes" ( bills ) to use to conduct our daily transactions, the America public will rapidly run out of money. Because we have
already assumed astronomical debt levels, and the debt obligations must be met EVERY month whether there is enough money in circulation to pay
them or not, many people will lose their "collateralized" assets. This is what happened in the Depression of the 1930s. The huge market losses
"swallowed" the money supply, and removed it from circulation. The bankers then refused to loan money back into circulation for farms and peace
( but magically had billions for war just 2 years later ! ) , and deliberately sent the nation into the worst depression in our history ( all engineered by the
Federal Reserve Bank - the same men we still quietly pay homage to today )

Each monthly debt payment has the effect of reducing even further the amount of currency in public circulation. As less and less money is left in
circulation to use, unless new money is introduced ( loaned back into circulation ) , a recession, and then rapidly following, a depression, results. Of
course, this has all been engineered by the the Federal Reserve Bank, which will be FORECLOSING ON EVERYTHING AND EVERYBODY
THAT MISSES THREE PAYMENTS, FOR THE ENTIRE DEPRESSIONARY CYCLE, JUST LIKE IN THE 1930s. Eventually resulting in the
ridiculous situation where the BANKERS OWN DEED AND TITLE TO ALL OF THE MOST DESIRABLE PROPERTIES IN AMERICA
( WORLD ) ! WELCOME TO THE NEW WORLD ORDER - SLAVERY TO THE MONEY GOVERNMENT FOR THE REST OF YOUR LIFE,
YOUR CHILDREN'S LIVES, THEIR CHILDREN'S LIVES, THEIR CHILDREN'S LIVES..... well, you get the picture. If not, read The
Communist Manifesto.

Keep in mind now, that the stated timetable for implementation of the "New World Order is the year 2000. In order to usher in a "New World
Order", with a "One World Currency" system it would of course first be necessary for the people of the world to be ready to accept a "One World
Currecncy" system, and that implies that it is either necessary to remove or destroy the existing system, or engineer such chaos and havoc within it
that People all over the world would beg their government for a "new system", thus opening the door to the international bankers ( One World
Government ) conspiracy. So, what do you suppose there is that could possibly happen to create financial confusion, havoc, and utter chaos within our
current money and finincial systems by the Year 2000 !

Remembering the Bear.

JTF: Can I surf the Kondratiev wave or is it tooooo fukin big? Just heard on a news flash that Japan has gone under- yeah,that's right the country no longer exists and "they" say it is spreading to the west like a TIDAL WAVE---have you read: "At the Crust of The Tidal Wave". NYSE just closed ( this is getting very serious Tolerant1!! )

Can anyone suggest a good Nasdaq gold stock that is really cheap and
could benefit substantially from a bounce in gold?

Thanks

Burty

Reality sets in tonight and it won't be pretty.

George C MOLE:
Just Bought some more ECO & NEM.
Such a deal!!!
I may have to head for the beach for a while until we get the big bounce.

Oil Up!
& Saudi's see increase in demand.
Protectionism no IMF aid?

I saw a rerun of the House Banking Committee they had all of the gang there:
MONETARY SITUATION IN ASIA
C-Span2 TODAY House Banking Commitee

Robert Hormats - Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman
Robert Rubens Partner
John Lipsky - Chase Mahattan bank
Rockefelers Bank
David Hale - Zurich Kemper Investments Chief Global Economist
Jerome Levinson - American University
All asking for more money for IMF long term structural problems
Fred Bergsten - Director - Institute for International Economics
Independent think tank
They keep stressing the ergency of the international situation

ALL WERE WORRIED/SCARED, WARNED THAT THE AMERICAN WORKER MAY LOOSE EVERYTHING - SO THEY BETTER INCREASE AID.

Surfer and Who: It is only a very short time to find out what will transpire. We just disagree in our assesment of the financial world.

JTF Japan has been in the dumpster since 1991, whats new here? Has that hurt the US or US equities... if anything it has been favorable for the US and for US firms

Brazil may or may not have a financial crisis depending on what the government does. Having just returned from there, I would bet on the Brazilians to face down the speculators. But even if they don't the crisis there is much less then what we saw in Mexico in 1995 and much less important to the US. How much did the Mexico meltdown impact the US? It was hardly a blip. Brazil could have a complete meltdown, which I dont think will happen, and you would never notice it in the US.

Business cycles are still with us but the applitude of the cycle has been flattend out. Durables are less important, inventories are better controled and deregulation in financial services and elsewhere has made the economy more adaptable. We will probably have recession before too long, thats one way to interpret what the financial markets are saying. But the depth and the duration of that downturn should be mild by comparison to past recessions.

The Kondratiev wave is an interesting theoretical construct but it was supposed to be here over 10 years ago.... I would say that the burden of proof lies with the believers in this theory, not its critics.

Derivatives are an important new financial innovation that adds increased flexibilty to managing large treasury functions in every multinational of any size. Their rapid growth is a reflection of their newness and the new ways corporations are finding to use them. The catastrophes in derivatives as came out a year or two ago with companies like P&G and Gibson Greetings are mostly behind us.

History is a harsh teacher.... and history does repeat itself but never as we expect it to.

Here is some info on Apex Silver ( SIL on the AMEX ) http://www.ipocentral.com/ml_ipo/54474ml.html Looking for ipo price $13-$15.

Hey, buddy! Quit dreamin'! Wake up and smell your finger; er, I mean, the coffee!

Burty: Do not make the mistake of buying a cheap priced stock in the hopes of getting a lot of shares which will rise in price.

If you want a solid stock - SSRIF - Silver Standard Resources -

I know you said gold, but I think you would do well, certainly in the near term.

Go to www.gold-eagle.com go to the digest section and read through the Goldbug section. Good advice there in both gold and silver stocks.

XAU creepin' up on th' sly ... ABX on its high for the day.

November 14, 1997
Closing overseas stock market indices

LONDON ( Reuters ) - Here is how major stock markets outside the United States ended Friday.
LONDON - Britain's leading stock index finished moderately higher but nearly unchanged on the week, as investors dared not stick their necks out with the pendulums in Asia and Latin America still swinging back and forth. The FTSE 100 closed at 4,741.8, up 30.8 points, or 0.65 percent. This was down 22.5 on the week.
PARIS - The CAC-40 stock index closed virtually flat, with a lower bias, as market operators squared books going into yet another nervous weekend. The CAC-40 index closed at 2,696.04, down 4.62 points, or 0.17 percent, a rise of 3.67 from last week.
ZURICH - Swiss stocks closed firmer on moderate volume in what dealers called a quiet session that had many nervous investors on the sidelines. The Swiss market index closed at 5,437.0, up 18.8 points, or 0.35 percent, a fall of 1.6 from a week ago.
FRANKFURT - German blue-chip stocks ended floor trade firmer but near the day's lowest levels as profit-taking and concerns about more Asian market turbulence cut the early gains from a firmer Dow and dollar. The DAX-30 index closed at 3,730.94, up 26.65 points, or 0.72 percent. In later screen-based trade, the IBIS DAX index ended at 3,676.65, down 25.29 points, or 0.68 percent, up 31.05 from last week.
TOKYO - The Tokyo stock market's benchmark index tumbled more than 2 percent by the close of trade as stocks in leading brokerage Yamaichi Securities Co. Ltd. slipped to a record low, sparking fears over Japan's financial system, brokers said. The 225-stock Nikkei average closed at 15,082.52, down 344.75 points, or 2.23 percent, down 753.84 from last
Friday.
HONG KONG - Hong Kong stocks closed strongly higher, extending the previous day's rebound begun on relief that interest rates were easing, but brokers' views on the outlook for the coming week were mixed. The Hang Seng index closed at 9,957.33, up 236.55 points, or 2.43 percent, down 147.17 from a week ago.
SYDNEY - Australian stocks ended lower after an early sprint higher failed in the face of Japanese market weakness and some profit taking. The All-Ordinaries index closed at 2,479.1, down 24.9 points, or 0.99 percent, a drop of 34.3 on the week.
JOHANNESBERG - South African stocks plunged and the rand hit a record low after the price of bullion fell to its lowest fixing in 12-1/2 years as unwanted metal poured into a market already saturated with gold. The key gold stock index neared a five-year low of 776.0 after losing 36.0 points, or 4.43 percent, down 85.5 from last week. The effect spilled over into the industrial index, which closed 111.2 points, or 1.30 percent, down to 7,897.8, a drop of 114.6 from a week ago. The
All-Stock index fell 138.9 points, or 2.13 percent, to 6,373.7, a fall of 151 from last week.

Burty- I intend to buy or I should say add to my position to Durban Deep,
DROOY. It is better than an option on gold IF YOU THINK GOLD WILL RISE.
Also been pickin up cheap April gold calls, they are almose givin them away today, may even be a better deal next week and if gold does go up
you might have a nice PROFIT.

With gold 8000 tons short, I like these odds. You talkin about a MEGA-SLINGSHOT!


Tally Ho

Crystal Ball 12:15 - I do love a good exhaustion gap/Island Reversal pattern ( s ) . However, we do differ slightly. There is much physical buying I agree but ONLY because there are ( more ) buttloads of people/institutions Selling IT. This is NO bounce or exhaustion. This is another leg in the proccess of a trend downward. 300 will be Exhausted...........on Friday??

TRUTH - Rotted Logic...are we bitter?

G.S.C. 12:20 - Again? Hmmmmmmmmmmm...

Good Job Mooney. You ole chartist. BAG 'EM!

U No Whooooo - U R no LonGerB 100%

AwAy...to work...

Nick ( Aussie ) - When I get back home tonight I want to see gold in the toilet...make it so ;- )

Sir Charles - You like bar-fights?!? You will be thrown through a Glass backboard tonight. In walks...SHAQATTACK!

Surfer Sam: Your comments remind me of DJ's and Nick ( @Aussie ) 's posts about "the big one", and surfing. One thing that has really worried me is the repeat of the 1997 market crash. A number of "smart" investers exited the stock market and bought gold stocks during the final 1987 rally. A few ( even smarter ) gold stock investors sold right at the top, after gold stocks doubled. Then everything crashed!
If you do ride the wave of a gold stock rally this time -- please take care. If you are on that 400 foot wave heading for the beach -- you may get the ride/thrill of a lifetime! But -- you might not like the final outcome if you don't get off in time.
My guess is that this time the process is deflationary, so it will be more like 1929, and not 1987. If that is so, the gold stock rally will begin some time after ( underline after ) the stock market stops going down. Believe it or not, I do invest in things other than precious metals, and will again. If the US markets survive the next 3-6 months, we may have a market rally to 1999-2000. Can't stop those baby boomers, it seems!
I think we will soon find out the state of the world's financial system. If we escape this crisis in fairly good shape,I hope we will all benefit from having a close call, and improve our financial system. I think there is a backup for the ECU/EMU and the US dollar -- that will surface if it is needed. I think that backup system will come from whoever has been buying/hoarding all the gold in the last several years.

Who's offering SIL - the offering according to SEC document is Mid-November ???

Sorry - I meant RJ in my 14:04 , not DJ! RJ where are you?
Are the gold floor traders buying yet? Probably not.

Jack TR...there is much wisdom in your 13:21 post ( Date: Fri Nov 14 1997 13:21 ID#25249 ) ...Where do you get the idea that the year 2000 is significant? ( Aside: Suppose the often discussed Y2K problem is being deliberately overlooked by those who know its real ramifications to systems collapse?. This implosion of the current system is ideal for the reconstruction of a new global SYSTEM using the logic that the old system was unsustainable...as George Soros is apt to point out about unsustainable Asian currencies...the same is being orchestrated, in my opinion, for the worlds current fiat currencies ) Your logic regarding the similarities of the period preceeding the great depression of the 30s and today's unsustainable debt situation is on the mark. They say the 30s will never be repeated, but I'm not sure that in the history of time, cycles of life do occur...we all know that the current debt situation, with our mounting debt charges, is unsustainable as is the central bankers control of fiat currencies. They all must eventually approach some natural equilibrium and as in all natural systems, a death or species collapse before a new state is established on the ashes of the old. Such was the case with the 1930s, when the old system was argued to be unmanageable and unsustainable...SO too will historians point to our current situation and say "you see all the signs were there that it was unsustainable."

There is of course an unusual event which occured in the 1930s, that is the patriation of gold by Roosevelt in order to resurrect a defaulted US economy.

I do not necessarily subscribe to the notion of the rhetorical sense of "conspiracy" but I have no doubt that Soros and Rothschilds, by virtue of their historical investment acumen in currency markets and as gold/treasury traders, are undoubtedly positioning themselve to take advantage of what they most certainly understand to be a loosing battle by Central Bankers to maintain an unsustainable fiat currency system.

Inertia is extremely powerful! Undoubtedly the house of cards will eventually fall on its own inertia....the music of the musical-chairs-game we know as deficit/debt financing our way to prosperity will end...it is just a question as to who will get the last chair. My money is betting on the grand masters of old...the House of Rothschilds and their agents such as Soros ( the APEX silver expose is just one example...there will be more ) ...when the music stops, I'll bet the LBMA and the Roths will be in control of so much private gold that they will have become the defacto world central bank and able to dictate the terms of a new global currency ( eletronic transfer system, paper or sea shells ) .

Cheers!

Donald: Your argument that gold and gold stocks are getting close to major long-term troughs, but the rest of the stock market still has miles to fall jives completely with my own thinking.

But I still am agnostic on how long this stock bear will last. The gold grizzly took nearly two years to get to its current capitulation stage. I suspect this stock bear will be one of history's worst, but feel that many moons will pass before it is over. The worst U.S. bear -- 1929-32 -- lasted nearly 3 years. Just as with gold there will be myriad sucker's rallies to keep hope alive and prevent the masses from bailing out until prices have been driven into the basement.

Can you imagine what the dipsters will be doing when the Dow Jones starts acting like the gold have stocks have done in recent weeks? The country will be on the verge of revolution.

Gentlemen: I am most honored by your kind words. Your humble servant...
Metals and XAU rallying into the close... The shoe drops next week.

Does anyone realize that this week our solar systems planets are aligning and will continue to be aligned into the first part of December. For those who are quick to discount metaphysical phenomenon, consider that the last time the planets were aligned was in 1982 at which time gold prices ( London PM fix ) were as low as 296.75 on June 21 then rose to a high of $481.00 on September 7...a rise of 62%... I don't know when the planets aligned in 1982. Strange that today we are seeing tests of less than $300 having dipped to those 1982 lows while the planets are aligned!

Also, meterologists and astromers note that the planets will not align again until 2040.....

Mike Sheller, where are you?

Looking back 15 years, SP500 low/high is 100/983, respectively. The same for XAU is 60/154. While SP500 is up 1000%, we have collapsed 50%. Looking at other golds the collapse is more like 70-90%. This would give the f--k ratio of 20x as high as 50x. The only consolation is that when and if the control over gold is broken it may take just weeks, perhaps months to adjust???

Dr Who: Your arguments are well expressed - welcome to Kitco - hope you stay. I also am bullish about the US stock market -- if we can get my this current earnings downturn. We have alot going for us -- the computer/software revolution, the baby boom economy- which will peak around 2010 -- I have read Harry Dent, and I think you have too!
I think you are wrong in thinking the Kondratiev wave is theoretical - with no foundation in fact. I thought so too -- until I started to read Deweys work - the founder of the Foundation fo the Study of Cycles. That Foundation has the largest times series collection of cycles in the world! The Kondratiev wave is actually conceptually quite simple once you understand it -- and as you point out -- the precise turning point, or the turning point of any cycle ( for that matter ) is notoriously unpredictable. Could be 54 +/- 10 years or so. In fact I think that is what Dewey says.
The Kondratieve wave is simply the human cycle between "hard" assets, and "paper" assets. Every 60 or so years - about three human generations, it seem, we forget the value of having assets rather than debts, and near the peak of these waves inflationary processes tend to occur. This wave is well documented for at least 4 cycles in the Dewey literature, and I suspect also explains the Roman inflationary period, as well as the three or so currency debasements that inflicted the Chinese over the last 1000 years. No -- the Kondratiev wave is not fictional -- but its turning points cannot be predicted. The only reason I think it is happening now is because we now have a 150 year record ElNino, and so far all of the financial crises are in areas most effected by the ElNino. I could be wrong, and I hope I am.

Well spotted, note also the last big el nino was 1982, hmmm coincidence I think not. The driving force causing the pacific to slosh and el nino to occur has not been discovered...I wonder if the Roths have a good planetary reader in the family?

No purchases today, maybe next wk.

Assume Iraq, isolated from the world the past 6-yrs, has been consistently spending their previously huge quantities of gold to fund their production of weapons of mass destruction and the 'united world', chaired by the CB'S [of course], came to that conclusion somewhere around $450/oz or higher ( ? ) and thus keeps steadily lowering [more like punishing]the price of gold to severely restrict their overall purchasing power ...What if iraq, who couldn't buy a bar of soap with their own currency has FINALLY almost depleted their entire gold supply, realize it and now will fight to-the-end cause their almost broke...didn't another arab nation S.A. demand gold instead of dollars as payment for their oil during the height of the '70s crises [type similar scenario]

...wonder at the final conclusion of this gulf fiasco if the metals will RE-correct upward again where they truly SHOULD be valued...also didn't we try 'freezing' IraNs financial assets during the hostage crises which then forced them to unload their gold holdings for goods !
any merit in any of this ???

JTF and Kiwi: Wouldn't it be fascinating to determine whether a statistical correlation exists between meterological phenomenon like the alignment of the planets, with El Nino patterns, with the Kondratiev wave cycles. Undoubtedly no matter what your inclination you cannot ignore that we are in a time of great uncertainty and irregularities on all plains.

USAGOLD's

DAILY MARKET REPORT/For Current Quotes Call 1-800-869-5115



11/14/97
Open
+/- Prev Close
Close
+/-Prev Close
Gold
302.50

-6.00

Silver
4.98

-.08

Platinum
383.50

-5.00



MARKET UPDATE ( 11/14/97 ) AM----- Gold was down sharply in a move which began in
London overnight and then took hold in New York at the open. The trading in New York though
was characterized by floor traders as "eerily quiet". The selling in London was attributed to large
commodity funds but rumors are also circulating about a large "put" position being protected by a
trader for a major bank who has major exposure on the short side of the market. There has been
considerable short covering at the bottom giving substance to the rumors. Oddly, Comex gold
stocks continue to fall ( now at 567, 317 ozs ) with another 2861 ozs. leaving the warehouse
yesterday. London interbank gold lending rates are at 3.95% ( 1 yr. ) . also indicating strong
physical demand. Where's all the gold going? In August Comex stocks were near 1 million
ounces! And the historically high interest rates indicate a shortage of physical metal. In short we
don't believe this last dump is for real -- just more manipulation. For physical buyers the buying
opportunity continues. In other markets stocks have come down hard after opening to the upside.
The dollar is up again against the yen, mark and Swissie. Bonds are also up on benign producer
price numbers ( + .1% ) . We are coming up on first notice on gold the day after Thanksgiving. We
have heard through the gold grapevine that a squeeze could be developing in gold on the
December contract due to the lack of physical gold. ( Don't go out and bet the farm on this. It may
or may not be true. ) Today's action could be the first salvo fired from the short side. We shall see
what develops. If anything interesting happens we shall update. If not this is it for the day.



Gentlemen: Quote Com shows gold up to 306+ and silver to 514. Is this right? Anybody have closing COMEX gold and silver prices?

...this is getting interesting. Get your powder ready. I've been completely out of the gold market for the past two weeks but I sense that a bottom is close at hand ( $287-$292 is my projected bottom ) . I agree with many here that when it jumps back up, it will be in short, but significant spurts. That first spurt may indeed occur before the year is out if supply continues to dwindle...

Interesting way to cover shorts. Easy if you have the capital or rumor-mongering capability. Just sell or rumor the market down and buy back ALL at a lower price from those who get stopped out or are simply afraid to continue holding. This 'could' go on for awhile. Right up to the day there is nothing left to cover with.

To: U NO WHOOOO. Thanks for your input, but I disagree. What your saying is true, for renewable resources! But metals aren't soybeans, you can't grow more. Unless, you know a physicist who's found the philosopher's stone? Can he make it for $300/oz? Talk to me! :- )

Turn your TV or Radio on. Clinton now on live talking about Iraq.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971113/venezuela_oil_strike_1.html

Re:your 14:13 -- The thought had crossed my mind, that Y2K-induced financial collapse may be the impetus for a global paradigm shift in how we think of money. I thought I was the only one, and was afraid to mention it, so as to avoid being tarred with the label of "conspiracy nut".

If indeed one currency were the result of such a collapse, money would be whatever the powers-that-be 'say' is money, and gold would be valueless for all intents and purposes. I don't think of myself as a paranoiac, but this whole puppet show is beginning to look very scary, regardless of who may or may not be pulling the strings of the marionettes.

George S. Cole- thanks for the up date. They referred to the posible comin squeze on gold, well I would not bet any money that I could not afford to lose but I AM BETTING 1/2 THE FARM THAT THE SQUEZE WILL DEVELOP
IN THE 1ST QUARTER OF 1998! STAY TUNED.

we got a preview of a squeze Thursday on silver, this was only a PREVIEW!
MORE TO COME!

tollerant- I also agree with your SSRIF! I also have a load of it.

Tally Ho

RE VenOil Strike - Thanks! I knew if anyone could find it, you could.

Dominic Brother...I don't think so cause I think gold will hit $285 an ounce soon and then rebound to about $300 and stay there till the Swiss decide to sell some of there gold. When they do, it'll be gobbled up. Gold will hit $900 in 5 years.

This Year 2000 Computer Date crisis has about been beat to
death. However, this is the most exhaustive analysis of the
scenario that I've seen, and when you pursue the link to the
site, it really goes to town. Discounting any potential motives
for sensationalizing overkill, Gary North does raise some
points I had trouble dismissing!


BLIND MAN'S BLUFF IN THE YEAR 2000


What are you going to be doing for as living in the
year 2001? Unless you're a fix-it man living in a small
town, you won't be doing what you do today. If you make
your living in financial services, you will surely be doing
something else. If you're a journalist, you will be in a
new profession. But what? What other useful service can
you provide? You have very little time to make the switch.
Let me show you why.

We live in a world that depends on a high division of
labor. That world has less than three years to go. In one
gigantic collapse, the division of labor will implode.
This implosion will begin in 1999. It will accelerate in
2000 and thereafter. Those who work in highly specialized
fields will find little or no demand for their skills, in
the face of an enormous supply of desperate, low-wage
competition. Any job classification that did not exist in
1945 will probably not have a lot of demand in 2001, with
one exception: computer software programming.

The June 2 issue of Newsweek ran a front-cover story
on the looming computer crisis of the Year 2000 -- called
y2k ( Year 2 K -- shorthand for a thousand ) . In the week it
the article appeared ( late May ) , the Dow Jones Industrial
Average set a record new high. ( It was beaten a week
later. ) If investors believed the information reported in
the Newsweek article, the world's stock markets would have
collapsed. Clearly, people don't believe it. That's why a
small handful of people can get out now -- out of the stock
market, the bond market, and any city over 25,000.

Not everyone can get out at the top of a bull market.
This includes the "bull market" known as modern industrial
society. Pull the plug on the local power utility for 30
days, and every city on earth becomes unlivable. What if
the plug gets pulled for five years?

How do you rebuild the shattered economy if the
computers go down, taking public utilities with them?
Without electricity, you can't run the computers. Without
computers, you can't fix computers. How can you assemble
teams of programmers to fix the mess? More to the point,
how do you pay them if the banks are empty?

Chase Manhattan Bank has 250 million lines of code to
check and then repair. Citicorp has 400 million lines.
All big banks are similarly afflicted. And even if this
could be fixed, bank by bank, there is no universal repair
standard. Thus, the computers, even if fixed ( highly
doubtful ) will not work together after the individual
repairs. A noncompliant bank's data will then make every
compliant bank noncompliant. Thus, the world banking
system will crash in 2000. When the public figures this
out in 1999, the bank runs will begin.

You will not have a job in 2000. Count on it.


"It Just Can't Be True!"

You don't believe me, of course. Not yet. But I have
published the evidence on this Web site. You can verify
what I'm saying. But you still won't believe it. Why not?
Because it's too painful. In their new book, The Sovereign
Individual, Davidson and Rees-Mogg make a very important
observation:

A recent psychological study disguised as a
public opinion poll showed that members of
individual occupational groups were almost
uniformly unwilling to accept any conclusion that
implied a loss of income for them, no matter how
airtight the logic supporting it. Given
increased specialization, most of the
interpretive information about most specialized
occupational groups is designed to cater to the
interests of the groups themselves. They have
little interest in views that might be impolite,
unprofitable, or politically incorrect ( p. 339 ) .

My views are all three: impolite, unprofitable, and
politically incorrect. Impolite, because I am saying this:
( 1 ) those advising you are as blind as an eighth-century
Israelite king; ( 2 ) they have given you information that
will prove to be wildly unprofitable; ( 3 ) all the hype
about your getting rich -- the world's getting rich -- is a
clap-trap. We are heading for a disaster greater than
anything the world has experienced since the bubonic plague
of the mid-14th century.

Because the year 2000 begins on a Saturday, millions
of victims will not be aware of their dilemma until the
following Monday or Tuesday. They will pay no attention to
advance warnings, such as this one, that they are at risk.

As you read this report, I want you to think to
yourself: "How will this affect me? Is my business at
risk? Is my income at risk? What should I do?"


The Origin of the Problem

Here is the problem. Over three decades ago, computer
programmers who wrote mainframe computer software saved
disk space -- in those days, very valuable space -- by
designating year codes as two-digit entries: 67 instead of
1967, 78 instead of 1978, etc. Back then, saving this
seemingly minuscule amount of disk space seemed like an
economically wise decision. This may prove to be the most
expensive forecasting error since Noah's flood.

What the programmers ignored for three decades is
this: in the year 2000, the two digits will be 00. The
computer will sit there, looking for a year. At midnight,
January 1, 2000, every mainframe computer using unrevised
software dies. If old acquaintances are in the computer,
they will indeed be forgot.

Programmers who recognized the implications of this
change did not care. They assumed that their software
would be updated by year 2000. That assumption now
threatens every piece of custom software sitting on every
mainframe computer, unless the owner of the computer has
had the code rewritten. In some cases, this involves
coordinating half a billion million lines of code.
( Example: AT&T ) One error on one line can shut down the
whole system, the way that America Online was shut down for
a day in 1996 because of a one-digit error.

The handful of reporters who have investigated this
problem have met a wall of indifference. "We're all using
microcomputers now." "This is a problem only for a few
companies that are still using mainframes." "Cheap
solutions will appear as soon as there is demand." "The
software will be updated soon, and I'll buy it then." "If
this were a serious problem, we'd have heard about it."
Yet this last response is given to someone -- a reporter --
who is trying to tell people about the problem.

I first read about this problem years ago in a book by
the pseudonymous author, Robert X. Cringely: Accidental
Empires. It is not as though the computer industry has
been unaware of it. Only a few weeks ago, I read a Wall
Street Journal column on computers that mentioned it. The
writer wrote that his editor is getting tired of having him
mention it. This is typical. The general public hasn't
heard about it, yet editors are already tired of hearing
about it. "It's old news." Well, it's new news for most
people.

What does it matter, really? We use microcomputers.
Microsoft has solved the Year 2000 problem. So have most
software companies. Everyone uses desktop computers or, at
the largest, minicomputers, right? Wrong.


Governments Rely on Aging Mainframes and Software

On September 24, 1996, Congressman Stephen Horn, who
is Chairman of the Subcommittee on Government Management,
Information, and Technology, submitted to the full
committee a report on the Year 2000 problem. The
Subcommittee held hearings on April 16. ( Just one day of
hearings. This indicates the degree of concern that the
government has. ) He said that these hearings revealed "a
serious lack of awareness of the problem on the part of a
great number of people in business and government. Even
more alarming was the cost estimate reported to the
Subcommittee to remedy the problem, which was said to be
$30 billion for the Federal Government alone." Then he
announced:

Without greater urgency, those agencies risk
being unable to provide services or perform
functions that they are charged by law with
performing. Senior agency management officials
must take aggressive action if these problems are
to be avoided.

Yet despite Horn's valid warning, nothing visible is
happening. He knows this. These agencies must shift
hundreds of millions of dollars from their existing budgets
to hire outside programmers to rewrite the code that runs
these agencies. This isn't being done. More to the point,
the longer they delay, the worse the problem gets. You
can't just go out and hire programmers who are familiar
with the code. As businesses find out what threatens them,
the demand for these highly specialized services will soar.
( If businessmen don't figure this out in time, payment will
come due in January of 2000. )
The Subcommittee's report warns: "This issue may cause
banks, securities firms and insurance companies to
ascertain whether the companies they finance or insure are
year 2000 compliant before making investment decisions."
It also says that companies will start demanding
contractual warranties guaranteeing against Year 2000
breakdowns.
A memorandum from the Library of Congress Research
Service ( CRS ) has warned that "it may be too late to
correct all of the nation's systems." So, the question
arises: Which systems will survive and which ones won't?
Here are some problem areas, according to CRS:

Miscalculation by the Social Security
Administration of the ages of citizens,
causing payments to be sent to people
who are not eligible for benefits while
ending or not beginning payments to
those who are eligible;

Miscalculation by the Internal Revenue
Service of the standard deduction on
income tax returns for persons over age
65, causing incorrect records of
revenues and payments due;

Malfunctioning of certain Defense
Department weapon systems;

Erroneous flight schedules generated by
the Federal Aviation Administration's
air traffic controllers;

State and local computer systems
becoming corrupted with false records,
causing errors in income and property
tax records, payroll, retirement
systems, motor vehicle registrations,
utilities regulations, and a breakdown
of some public transportation systems.

I don't think these are small issues. They will
probably start receiving media attention when it is so late
in the process that there will be massive foul-ups in
coordinating the revisions.

Notice, the biggest one is missing: an international
bank run, as depositors demand cash. From that day on, all
exchanges will be local: the collapse of the division of
labor.

When the computers' clocks think it's 1900, it soon
will be.

I realize that there has been tremendous progress in
microcomputer power, but does anyone really think that all
of the Federal government's forms -- not an infinite
number, but approaching infinity as a limit -- can be put
on three dozen Compaq desktop computers and run with, say,
Lotus Approach or Microsoft Access? And even if they
could, how would you re-train all of the bureaucrats to use
the new systems? How fast will they learn? How fast do
bureaucracies adapt? The Subcommittee's report warns:

The clock is ticking and most Federal agencies
have not inventoried their major systems in order
to detect where the problem lies within and among
each Federal department, field office and
division. The date for completion of this
project cannot slip.

By "cannot," the Subcommittee's report-writer meant
"must not." The date can surely be allowed to slip. It
almost certainly will be allowed to slip.

Additionally, the task may be more difficult for
the public sector, where systems have been in use
for decades, may lack software documentation and
therefore increase the time it takes from the
inventory phase to solution.

Did you get that? The software code's records are
gone! Remember also that we're not just talking about the
United States government. We're talking about every
government -- national, state, and local -- anywhere on
earth that has its data stored on an unrevised mainframe
computer system or which relies on any third-party computer
service that uses uncorrected software.

As the year 2000 approaches, word will slowly begin to
spread: "After the three-day weekend that will inaugurate
the year 2000, there is going to be a hangover the likes of
which we have never seen before." For some, it will be a
time of celebration. For others, it will be the end of
their dreams. It depends on whether they are being
squeezed by the government or dependent on it.

But it's not just government that is at risk. It's
private industry.


Kiss Medicare Goodbye

Some 38 million people will receive Medicare payments
in 1997. In 2000, an estimated one billion claims will be
filed, totalling over $288 billion. This, according to a
May 16, 1997 report of the General Accounting Office ( GAO ) :
"Medicare Transaction System."

Problem: the Medicare system won't make it through
2000. The same GAO report shows why. Medicare claims are
not actually administered by Medicare. It's administered
by 70 private agencies. These agencies have been informed
that their contracts will not be renewed in 2000.

The agency that officially supervises Medicare has
plans for one huge computer system that will bring the
program in-house. It is the same dream that motivated the
Internal Revenue Service for the past 11 years. The IRS
announced earlier this year that after 11 years and $4
billion, the attempt had failed.

Medicare now knows that it has a problem with its
computers. They are not Year 2000-compliant. So, to make
sure that they will be compliant, Medicare has issued an
appeal to the 70 newly canned companies: please fix the
year 2000 problem for us before you leave. As the GAO
report puts it, "contractors may not have a particularly
high incentive to properly make these conversions. . . ."

What if the system fails? ( What if? Are they
kidding? When! ) The report says that the Health Care
Financing Administration ( HCFA ) , which is responsible for
running Medicare, has not made contingency plans. "HCFA
officials are relying on the contractors to identify and
complete the necessary work in time to avoid problems. Yet
the . . . . contractors not only have not developed
contingency plans, that have said that they do not intend
to do so because they believe that this is HCFA's
responsibility."


Kiss the IRS Goodbye

The IRS has 100 million lines of code. Their code is
not year 2000-compliant. After the failure of the 11-year
project to upgrade the system, Chief Information Officer
Arthur Gross announced that getting the IRS year 2000-
compliant is the "highest priority for the IRS." The IRS
has nearly 50,000 code applications to coordinate and
correct. This task will require the IRS to move 300 full-
time computer programmers to the new project. ( Reported in
"TechWeb," April 21, 1997 ) .

For comparison purposes, consider the fact that the
Social Security Administration began working on its year
2000 repair in 1991. Social Security has 30 million lines
of code. By June, 1996, the SSA's 400 programmers had
fixed 6 million lines.

What if the IRS isn't technically equipped to pursue
tax evaders after December 31, 1999? What if the IRS
computer system isn't fully integrated with all of its
branch offices? What if the system's massive quantities of
forms are not stored in a computer system that is Year
2000-compliant? More to the point, what if 20% of
America's taxpayers believe that the IRS can't get them if
they fail to file a return?

In 1999, the IRS may find a drop in compliance from
self-employed people. If the IRS can't prosecute these
people after 1999, there will be a defection of compliance
by the self-employed. When word spreads to the general
public, there will be a hue and cry -- maybe at first
against the evaders, but then against employers who are
sending in employees' money when self-employed people are
escaping. Meanwhile, cash-only, self-employed businesses
will begin to lure business away from tax-compliant
businesses by offering big discounts.

This will start happening all over the world. Once it
begins, it will not easily be reversed. The tax system
rests on this faith: ( 1 ) the government will pay us what it
owes us; ( 2 ) the government can get us if we stop paying.
Both aspects of this faith will be called into question in
the year 2000 if the governments' computers are not in
compliance.

Big Brother is no more powerful than his software. On
January 1, 2000, this strength may fall to zero. Actually,
double zero.

If the IRS cannot collect taxes, and if all the other
mainframe computer-dependent tax collection agencies on
earth do not fix this, what will happen to the government
debt markets worldwide? To interest rates? To the
government-guaranteed mortgage market?

Kiss them all goodbye.


"No Problem! Trust me!"

There are a few conservative financial newsletter
writers who have heard about y2k. They deny its economic
relevance. A shut-down of all mainframe computers would
mean that newsletter writers will be out of business after
1999 -- a thought too terrifying for them. So, they brush
y2k aside with some version of this rebuttal: "Of course,
the government may not get its computers fixed." This is
supposed to calm you. It should terrify you. Ask
yourself:

What happens to T-bills and T-bonds if the
IRS computer breaks down and a tax revolt spreads
because taxpayers know the IRS will never find
them, and that if they pay their taxes, they
won't get their refunds?

What happens to money market funds and bond
funds that invest heavily in government debt when
investors realize that if the IRS can't collect
taxes, the government will default on its debt?

What happens to the banks when depositors
figure out that the FDIC is bankrupt and that
nobody insures their accounts any more?

What happens to your job when the banks
close because of bank runs, and no business can
borrow money or even write a check to its
employees?

What happens to the delivery of food into
cities when money fails because the banks are
busted?

What happens to the delivery of public
utilities when money fails because the banks are
busted?

What happens to your retirement fund when
ERISA, the government pension guarantee program,
goes bankrupt?

What happens to the 38 million people in the
U.S.
who are dependent on Medicare? ( Medicare is
administered by 70 private firms that have all been
told they will be fired in 2000 when Medicare installs
its new computer system, but in the meantime, they
have been asked to do the year 2000 repair on their
own, to deliver a fixed system to the government in
1999. Does this sound crazy? Of course. It's the
government. See my Web site for confirmation of this
story: a May 16 government report. )

What happens to 42 million people on Social
Security?

What happens to every state government?

What happens to crime rates when the state
cannot imprison violent criminals and may have to
release those who are locked up because they
can't be fed?

What happens to the world economy when this
scenario is multiplied across every government?

Kiss you job goodbye. Especially if you're a
journalist. I know. I am one. I figure I'll be out of
work -- forced retirement -- January 1, 2000. I'm making
plans to be in small-scale agriculture. I'm out of debt.

What about you?


Psychological Deferral

Those in authority prefer to defer thinking about
this. They are playing Scarlett O'Hara: "I'll think about
it tomorrow," followed by, "Well, fiddle dee-dee."
Deferral is a normal response to distant problems. The
question is: What can we afford to defer? People defer
making this assessment. The fact that you have not read
much about this looming problem doesn't mean that it isn't
a problem. If your employer has not actively sought
solutions to this problem, your firm had better not use
mainframe computers or be dependent on suppliers that rely
on mainframe computers.

Everyone assumes that someone else is doing something
to solve these problems. "It's being taken care of." The
problem here is the passive voice. Who, exactly, is taking
care of it? What, exactly, is this person doing? Is he on
schedule? How do you know for sure? Are you taking his
word for it? Anyone who takes the word of a computer
programmer that he is on schedule is a person of very great
faith. If the programmer says "Sorry, I didn't make it" on
December 31, 1999, you're dead in the water. Meanwhile, he
moves on.


What You Should Do, Beginning Today

First, you investigate whether what I'm saying is
true.

Second, think through what happens to you if the local
power company and the local water and sewage company shut
down in your city for six months. "Who ya gonna call?"
Especially if your phone is dead? And if you do get
through, how ya gonna pay if your local bank is defunct?

Third, here is my personal strategy. I have adopted a
question:

"Can I prove on paper that he owes it to me?"

I want hard copy print-outs of everything I do with
the government. If you are owed money from Social
Security, and you're dependent on this income, contact the
Social Security Administration every year and get a letter
telling you what you're owed. This is true of every
government pension system.

Do you have a copy of your birth certificate? If not,
write to your place of birth and get it. Even if that
community has not computerized the records, do it now.
Even if it keeps the records in a desktop, do it. If word
starts to spread, they may be buried in requests in 1999.
You want your paperwork completed before word gets out.

Do you have a copy of your college transcripts? If
not, get it. The same goes for your work record history.
Assume that your records are in some company's mainframe
computer. Assume also that the company has failed to
update the software.

Do you have a print-out of all of your insurance
records? Would they stand up in court? If not, get what
you need, now.

Have you spoken with your local insurance agent? Is
he fully aware of the problem? Ask him straight out if he
has scheduled an update of his software if he relies on
vendor-supplied software. He deserves to know what is
coming. So do you. ( If you want to photocopy this issue
to send him, go ahead. )

Think through this problem in advance, before it gets
out and creates a banking panic, all over the world. This
story will get out eventually. In 1999, when reporters are
running around looking for sensational Year 2000-third
millennium stories, this one will at last surface. It
already has: in Newsweek. At that point, every government
bureaucrat whose agency is at risk will start playing the
"No problem" game. "It's being taken care of." The
bureaucrat's number-one rule is to evade responsibility.
No one with any authority is going to admit that his
malfeasance in office is going to create a disaster on Jan.
1, 2000. The basic response will be this: "There's no
problem here, and furthermore, I'm not responsible when
everything collapses next year!"

Visit his web site for updated information:

http://www.garynorth.com

With all due respect to Mr. Kahunna Grande, I am forced to paint a more accurate picture comparing Arabian oil production and reserves to that of the US. Mr. Kahuuna Grandes comparison would have you believe the US oil production and reserves rival that of Saudi Arabia. NOTHING COULD BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH.

Saudi Arabias light and medium crude reserves dwarf that of the US. Where US reserves are comparable, we are talking heavy crude with an API gravity of 13-16. This is very poor quality crude from which few petroleum derivatives can be economically refined. Furthermore, much US crude is characterized as being sour-crude, meaning it has a very high sulfur content. Therefore, the refineries hate this low quality crude as it gums up the installation. On the other hand Saudi Arabian crude is considered sweet-crude - i.e. no sulfur.

Mr. Kahunna Grande also made reference to two wells in Texas still producing since the 1930. That I do not doubt. However, we must put this into proper perspective. The average production rate of oil wells in the US is about 125 barrels per day, whereas in Saudi Arabia the average production rate per well is GREATER THAN 10,000 BARRELS OF OIL PER DAY! In fact there are wells in Saudi Arabia producing more than 100,000 barrels per day. Moreover, nearly all oilwells in the US require expensive pumping installations to extract the crude from its reservoir. In sharp contrast nearly ALL Saudi Arabian reservoirs demonstrate such high reservoir pressures that nearly all wells free-flow.

In essence Saudi Arabian crude oil is essential to the continued well-being of the US economy - and for that matter the economies of the other highly industrialized countries... like Japan for instance, which is obliged to import nearly 100% of its energy needs -- since Japan lacks domestic production.

Therefore, it is not an exaggeration to believe that any exogenous event which temporarily diminishes - or even halts - Saudi Arabian crude production will have an electrifying impact upon oil prices. This in turn will catapult GOLD PRICES SKYWARD. But apart from man-made catastrophic occurrences - like Mr. Saddam Hussein - taking another ill-advised step in areas outside his sovereignty - the supply/demand dynamics will be forcing oil prices upwards in the not too distant future. In this regard my I call your attention to a trade study posted at the GOLD-EAGLE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/crude_oil/rising_oil.html

Assalamu Alaikum

Y2Jbug...I'm in with you on the intuition that there may be no intention of dealing with the year 2000 computer problem. I only ask what is Bill Gates, in all his wisdom and foresight, doing about fixing the problem? ANYTHING? I know of some folks that are talking about how to tweek the systems so that they buy time by adding in programing lines to divert chaos....but Why not Microsoft? Is the Y2K problem a PROBLEM or an ILLUSION...for IF it is a REAL problem, then why are we walking into the mouth of chaos?

Keep up the discussion on this subject...I wanted to also comment on bb fishers last article and closing remarks on the subject.....I am increasingly of the opinion that those who are in the majority on computer systems development ( Microsoft ) may be deliberately delaying action on a real problem..

I will enter in another interesting wrinkle no one has ever mentioned on Kitco. The last James Bond film was based on the threat of a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere which would theoretically create a percussion wave that would effectively knock out computer systems, worldwide or at least cause significant disruption and damage. Months ago on a Canadian Broadcasting Corp. radio program "Querks and Quarks" a physicist was asked about the James Bond scenario, and amazingly he confirmed that the movie was in fact accurate, that a nuclear explosion would create a percussion wave that would neutralize any computers that are actually plugged into electrical outlets at the time of the explosion. The INTERNET might survive ( as the US military knows having helped develop the system ) but our PCs and other computers plugged into electrical outlets would be neutralized. ONLY IF your computer was NOT plugged in or hoping that your surge device worked as it should ( which I doubt it could absorb ) could you theoretically re-establish contact to the web once the percussion wave had occurred. He noted that the US military is very aware of this real threat yet know not how to prevent such an occurance. NOW, consider the thought of IRAQ exploding a nuclear device of the Atlantic or over Israel? Note also the predictions of one Nostradamus who predicted a nuclear explosion of nuclear missiles in the atmosphere around the period 1999....from a pre-emptive nuclear strike from the Middle East area and a counter strike of missiles from the US ( could Nostradamus have foreseen the Patriot missiles which were used in the Gulf War? ) .

The possibilities boggle!

Y2Kbug: It will happen long before!

Whose selling their gold today the price seems to be free falling. I figure most of the selling aspect is nothing but hot air, has any of these banks actually sold any of their supplies? As been echoed repeatly
on this channel, its an master illusion, the Japanese will rush to the metal to prop up their currency and add stability to the region. The President and the paper wizards are trying to take every mind off the market for a moment by preparing to annihilate the Iraqi problem. The performance of Gold is the precursor to this military action and the FEAR OF THE CENTRAL BANKS OF SELLING THEIR RESERVES, something that just won't happen in yours and my lifetime. Know when to hold them, know when to roll them, the cb's have shifty eyes at this moment and watch their slight of hand. Sell your Gold already, I'm waiting!!

kiwi@1430-------

the cause of el nino has been discovered matey.......
the cause long suspected, was verified with-in the last
year.

sub-terranean vulcanism....increased activity causes el nino......fact.

the eurodollar----the largest market there is------has been in a tight
channel for quite a while. there is almost no up-side risk....this is a
sure bet, if you can time the increase in overseas interest rates.
put options are VERY CHEAP!

cherokee!; ) watching-all-the-lit-fuses---------------

About a year ago I found this discussion group and on the advice of all the so-called gold experts like Cole,Eldorado and Puetz ect ect, I put all my money imn gold and gold stock and now I find myself about to lose my house and family. Thanks for the great gold advice!

BART: Do we really need the JACK TR type epistle? A summary would have been great!

Buying frenzy on Wall Street has sent dj up 30 points in last 10 minutes to up 100 on plus side.... This s&p call contracts look better all the
time....

Gus, the number principle of any investment strategy is DIVERSIFICATION
If you put everything into one asset, you have no one to blame but yourself

Wednesday, 12 November 1997
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BANKS HOPE PROBLEM GONE BY MORNING
----------------------------------
Banks around the country have now closed for the day, still
struggling with the effects of one of the worst computer
failures the industry's suffered in years. More than a billion
dollars worth of overnight transactions didn't go through.
The computer error has now been fixed, and banks say people
should be getting their money by tomorrow morning.
Meanwhile they're promising customers the effect on them will
be minimal. The BNZ - the worst affected bank - says they've
now re-worked their system so that customers who weren't
paid can still take money out or make other transactions.
The banking ombudsman's office is warning customers to check
their accounts carefully to make sure they're not overcharged.

( Not a pretty sight! I was amazed at how many people
interviewed on TV were unable to buy their lunch or put petrol
in their car when their pay was a day late . )

This was in New Zealand which has a well developed computer/banking system.

Some have questioned how America could relinguish her soverignty and join the coming world government in light of the
constitutional safeguards that were created by the founding dathers. However, since World War II, the U.S. Congress has
passed a number of laws giving the president awesome executive powers that grant him sole control of the government and
military forces in the event of nuclear war or some other national emergency. In such situations, it is obvious that the president
needs legal authority to direct and control the resources of the nation to protect its citizens. However, these executive orders
are a loaded gun that a future president could use to legally establish a dictatorship that brings America to join a world
government. Some people have suggested that an "emergency" could be created in the future as an excuse to enact legislation that Congress would
never pass in normal times.

The range of dictatorial powers available to a president during a declared national emergency are equal to or greater than the legal powers that were
held by Adoph Hitler or Joseph Stalin during their dictatorships. The legislation allows a president to suspend the Constitution and exercise these
powers whenever he alone determines that the nation faces a "national emergency." The term "national emergency" is not defined by the laws in
question. It is left solely to the president to determine when a national emergency exists.

The following are just a few of the national security laws that a president could exercise during a national emergency without any further reference
to Congress:

#10995: Seizure of all print and electronic communications media in the United States.

#10997: Seizure of all electric power, fuels, and minerals, public and private.

#10998: Seizure of food supplies and resources, public and private, including farms and equipment.

#10999: Seizure of all means of transportation, including cars, trucks or any other vehicles, including control over highways, harbors, and
waterways.

#11000: Seizure of all American people for work forces under federal supervision; it allows the government to split up families if they believe it is
necessary.

#11001: Seizure of all health, education and welfare facilities, public and private.

#11002: Registration by the Postmaster General of all men, women, and children for government service.

#11003: Seizure of all airports and aircraft.

#11004: Seizure of all housing and finance authorities; authority to establish forced relocation and to designate areas that must be abandoned as
"unsafe." Establishment of new locations for population groups, building of new housing on public land.

#11005: Seizure of all railroads, inland waterways, and storage warehouses, public and private.

#11051: Authorize the Office of Emergency Planning to put the above order into effect in times of increased international tension or financial
crisis.

Please note that these draconian dictatorial powers can be legally invoked by the president alone whenever he feels there is a time of increased
international tension or financial crisis. Every western democracy has similar laws that were set up to provide for the continuity of government in the
event of a nuclear war. In both Canada and the United Kingdom, these laws are called Orders in Council and were passed secretly by the Privy
Council under the authority of the prime minister.

The convergence of the negative factors, and the
ignorance of this by retail investors generally, and by US
equity fund investors particularly, is a time bomb and the
clock is ticking.
Dark clouds of overvaluation roll in
from US

The Maverick, by Gerry van Wyngen

October 1997 saw another massive $US21 billion
( $A30 billion ) inflow into US equity mutual funds, lifting
the total to an almost unbelievable $US2.4 trillion.

Stories are still surfacing about the October "correction".
Mutual fund clients tell of brokers' telephone, fax and
internet lines being engaged as investors lined up to avail
themselves of this "once in a lifetime opportunity" to put
more money into equity funds at "bargain" levels.

Another burst of US dollar buying out of Asia and Latin
America has pushed 30-year bond yields down to almost
6 per cent in the process appearing to validate ( by
comparison ) existing stockmarket valuations. So this
beautiful illusion of endless wealth through buying pieces
of paper continues a little longer.

Unfortunately such situations end in tears, and the signs
are increasing that it could be very hurtful. The Stock
Market Valuation Index, which is a simple compilation of
price earnings ratio, dividend yield and book value,
illustrates the point. Historically the index gravitates to
between 10 and 30. Currently it is over 60.

US sectoral overvaluation is increasing. This column has
previously noted that the "sexy" computer hardware and
semi-conductor sub-indexes were increasing at the same
time as earnings were decreasing. But it goes further.
Retailing is heading for disaster as sales per square foot
are falling, while retail footage is increasing. Overcapacity
and negative margins will soon hit the industry.

Financial services are also starting to come under scrutiny
as a result of the Asian and South American crisis.
Yesterday, Chase Manhattan Bank announced lower
earnings expectations for the December financial quarter
as a result of trading in volatile markets. The previous
day, analysts has downgraded earning expectations for
blue blood bank JP Morgan.

The truth is that this is only scratching the surface. The
quality of bank assets and earnings has deteriorated
markedly this year, and provisioning for bad or doubtful
debts is about to jump. And that against falling margins.

Banks should not be singled out for this warning. Indeed
the trend towards banks underwriting and distributing
debt instruments is continuing, with the result that massive
quantities of "junk bonds" are now owned by pension
funds, insurance companies and private and public
investors. This applies, for instance, to billions of dollars
of Asian debt. The questions that hang over this debt also
raise questions over the future earnings of the institutions
and companies which have bought this paper.

An indication of how massive this will eventually be can
be gleaned from the fact that junk bond defaults over the
past 12 years have averaged 4.6 per cent. Last year this
was down to 1.6 per cent. Nirvana? No, to the contrary.
Banks, commercial lenders and creditors have been
reluctant to enforce bankruptcies. In other words, the
problems have been left to mount up. Add to that Asia,
and other adverse trends, and the optimistic picture
darkens.

US Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan also
went on record to say that Asian problems had mitigated
against an increase in interest rates recently. Read that to
mean there is an increase imminent at the first propitious
moment.

And a final thought. If free trade has been the largest
boost to trade and corporate profits over the years, how
do we interpret the proliferating moves to freeze tariff
reform in recent months?

In Asia, protection of markets, and even tariffs, has
jumped. In Australia, tariff decreases are off the political
agenda. In the US, President Clinton cannot obtain
Congress backing for negotiating free trade agreements.
Everyone is talking of domestic jobs.

The convergence of the negative factors, and the
ignorance of this by retail investors generally, and by US
equity fund investors particularly, is a time bomb and the
clock is ticking.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/market/markets2.html

Yesterday I was depressed and today I feel like suicide. George C Cole: What happened to the big gold rally that you SAID was underway about a month ago? I trusted your judgement and look where it got me. Puetz: I shorted the S+P when you said to and look where that got me ( on the verge of suicide )

Gloomy Gus, just who twisted your arm? Are you an educated adult? If so, then blame the guy you see in the mirror.

gloomy gus------

i've got a 300' cliff i want you to jump off of....you will not get hurt!

!; ) ----------------!; ) -------------------

use YOUR own mind, based on YOUR own opinion, to decide which cliff can
safely transversed and in what fashion!

danged lemming sleepwalkers--------

cherokee!; ) changing-diapers---------

Markus: The year 2000 "bug" is real -- it is incredible that software and hardware designers would have never considered that their wares would last into the next century when they developed their systems in the mid 1900s ( through the 1980s! ) . In effect -- many many computer-related systems do not account for more than the right-most two digits of a year -- so, to these systems, 2000 and 1900 look EXACTLY the same. Unfortunately, the fix is NOT simple -- the numbers you hear regarding the cost of this "fix" are NOT exaggerated ( I am in the high-tech industry ) . -- expect a lot of unemployed COBOL programmers in 2001...

Gloomy Gus: Congratulations comrade, you are now a full fledged member of the new paradigm. Blame everyone else but the only true, and completely deserving person. YOU.

Individual responsibility. What a concept.

Of course you can make more gold... you can make more of anything... or use technology to use less of it... thats what productivity is all about and why the productivity numbers out yesterday were so dramatic and so significant.

Applied knowledge is the philosophers stone you seek. When I started working on computers 20 years ago, IBM 370s had lots of gold in them, but not much capability. Today the capability of the computer I use is way up, but the use of gold down. Thats why for any commodity like gold or oil or silver, the long term direction on price is down.

Thats not to say you wont get supply distruptions, particularly for oil, giving you short run price spikes. But who can forecast a blow up in the middle east? Long run, the price has to go down, because information and knowledge improve the productivity of use, cutting into demand.

I do blame myself when I look in the mirror but I still can't forgive the people on this site that have portrayed themselves as experts while at the same time giving out worthless and to me very damaging advice. I have lost EVERTHING after I took my hard earned money out of the stock market and put it into gold and now that very same stock market continues to soar. I will never forgive myself or the pundits at Kitco!

Dec gold options expire today. The real squeeze should begin around 11/28 which is Final Notice for Dec gold futures.

Gus.
2/3 OF THE PEOPLE ON THIS SITE ARE GOIN BROKE TOO... JUST LISTEN TO ALL THAT CHAT, THE LONGER ONES DOWN THE MOST...WHEN IT HURTS YOU USUALLY CRY LONG AND LOUD...WHERE'S MAMA WHEN YOU NEED HER !

Jack TR: The United States would become the United Sections overnight. One thing is for sure, this President does not have the support of anything anymore. And I am hoping an independant takes back the White House in the next election.

The dem and repubs are nothing but one party, we need a party crasher.

the earth's magma is essentially fluid sloshing around also, thus highly susceptible to the gravitational forces or the planets. Besides I don't see this as a well known fact...are you a learned scientist?
check out http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar
and put in dates around 22 Nov. 1997 and 22 Aug. 1982 ...note how the most mass in the solar system ( jupiter, sun and most of other planets ) are all to one side of the earth, explains why I'm feeling a little down to one side perhaps.

GLOOMY GUS: I have my mortgage ( s ) paid, my car ( s ) , all except a few thousand in debt I carry from month to month. I rode the Bull in paper while simultaneously buying "real money". NOW I am loving it. GOLD/SILVER CHEAP and buying it several times a month. I hope it continues to plummet for 2 more years so that I will have TONS of the REAL-DEAL.

I love this life ...

Ref Gloomy Gus.

You only take a loss when you sell at a loss. If you believe in your decision, you will stick with it. I'm still hanging in with my stocks because I believe in the decision. My investment may not seem like much to anyone else, but over 50% of my IRA is in gold and silver and oil. I've asked for opinions/advice here too. What I got was just that... Opinions and advice. The ultimate decision of where to place my funds was made by me. If that decision turns out to be wrong, then it will be MY WRONG DECISION! Seems like too many people do not want to take responsibility for their own decisions and actions these days and continually search for someone else to blame!

Gloomy Gus, Why don't you ask for a refund for what you paid for the advice?

tolerant1: U mean TR ( as in 1900 Teddy ) ... Bull Moose - here we come ...

Crystal Ball: Looks like XAU and HUI will close at/near the highs of the day. With volume very elevated, this could well be the key reversal day you were hoping for. At the very least we should get a good rally next week.

How can you people be so cruel? I listened to YOU and look where it got me! George C. Cole: You seem like a very nice man and I hate to be dis-respectful but if there is any MANIPULATION going on it is being done by YOU and others at this site and I don't know how some of you can live with themselves. I am feeling suicidle and Cherokee tells me he has a 300 foot cliff to jump off ( how can you live with yourself? ) What goes around-comes around and you all will get your just deserts. This site has RUINED me!

Good points. Reminds me of a story about a geologist sent to Saudi in the early days. When he got off the plane at an airstrip, a co-worker asked where he is going to set up his laboratory to start to look for oil. He could look out and see a big anticline formation as a hump coming out of the desert, and said "no need for a labratory, just drill a hole on that hill over there, and another on that other hill over here".

Gloomy Gus: Call Geraldo OR Springer - U may be able to shake-m-down for some cash if U "do-it" on the air .. ( just a tip )

To:

Sheik Abu Bekr al-Rashid ( ARABIAN OIL RESERVES VS US CRUDE RESERVES )
ID#289348: and Gold-Eagle article.

Analysis carries little weight with collapse of Asia and growing need for oil.

FYI all: ECO = ouch.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/phlxgoldt.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Gus - praying for you, cmh

My appologies JTF:I chose not to indicate the source of the WSJ and FIN
Times article yesterday,as I did not want to hurt Ted's feelings.You see,
these two articles were sent out by a service under Barrick Gold's Stock
Symbol.I thought it odd,but shared the content anyway in it's pure form
without reference for my friends here,if I have any.Because we/I post an
article,does not imply we/I necessarily agree with it's content,validity,
or purpose.

I have been peeking though this window for some time now actually.But
too often posts of mine were either ignored or givin little usefull
response.Quite awhile back I mentioned the possibility of some big mining
companies playing along or assisting in gold's decline to create a window
of opportunity for acquisitions of weaker companies.Does it not come to
anyone's attention that Barrick gold with some very influential board
members has hedged itself out for three years or so?THat Barrick also
used this opportunity to close two mines that turned out as big mistakes
after only recently acquiring them,under the pretense of low gold prices?
That Barrick Gold is prowling every Junior Resource company with good
potential properties and making JV deals with them?That Peter Munk in
one sentence in June said " buy gold stocks and you will be rich " and
not long after said he himself thought" the gold market was limited and
wanted to go into real estate "?

The response was simply...a company would never do anything to hurt it's
own stock.Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

The problem is.....in the stockmarket,very few insiders actually loose
anything..it's their shareholders that loose from their quest for power
and recognition.You know..that penis thing again.:- ) Some big mining
companies can survive and actually grow in these times if they play their
cards right turning bad times into opportune times.Those strongly backed
companies are not overly concerned with the month by month fluctuations
in the price of their stock.Look at Bema Gold.The stock looks God awfull.
Yet a newpaper article printed recently after Placer Dome's " deal ",had
a picture of Clive Johnson holding a glass of wine celebrating the deal.
You think he really gave a rat's ass about his stock price,since he sold
a large percentage of his stock before the real crunch came?BTW:BEMA is
now facing shareholder court action due to it's questionable " deal "
with PDG.


What I'm saying here is this.This site is great and has good and bad
analysis alike.Mr. Mooney was finally right once after being wrong ten
times and then felt necessary to shoot a goose up my ass today.No problem
Mr. Mooney..I'm a big boy..though I have yet to see a scorpion.I have
however witnessed groups of " Good Ole Boyz " stick togeather, no matter
how wrong they were,to preserve the sanction of their thoughts,only to
watch in disbelief as their Ivory Towers crumbled before them.Keep an
open mind a don't be so damned quick to quash and ignore " another's
thoughts ".You may just learn something yourselves.Oh,and the XAU is not
the only indicator on the planet.

I bid you all good day.Go gold..up or down...

Gloomy: Can I have my "just" dessert served with a hot cup of tea, half a teaspoon of sugar and a pinch of lemon. I like mine served with silverware if you please.

RayZer, re:your 15:25

I am a programmer on the front lines.

Agree: Your analysis of origins of problem

Agree: Fix is not simple

Agree: Fix costs rise exponentially with each new estimate

Disagree: Unemployed COBOL-heads in 2001.

( 1 ) Problem is much wider than COBOL

( 2 ) All current maintenance put on hold for Y2K will have to be completed SOMEDAY

( 3 ) Euro conversion will keep us employed for at least 5 more years.

Finally, to keep this on topic ( gold ) here's an amusing link, except follows.

http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?INW19971110S0097

I don't know about you," my friend said, laughing nervously, "but I'm putting everything into gold." My friend, a senior executive for one of the world's largest software companies, wasn't worried about the recent stock market crash and rebound cycle. To him, that was small potatoes.

"By next May," he said, "people will really start seeing the effects, and the price of gold will go up." In fact, it wasn't so much the stock market as the world economy that had my friend worried. Instead, he was concerned that the end of the millennium would cause irreparable harm to the world economy-so great that only a position in gold would offset it. . . .

Instead of the world ending in a flash of mangled bits, it will simply degrade. Ultimately, as my friend predicted, the public will lose confidence in computers, in the communications that support them, and in us. In the end, the funding we needed to keep this from happening will go to bookkeepers and customer service temps who will explain that this great degradation in service is our fault, as they fix the problems by hand.

No plate glass will keep your dull bulk from flying through the window so stay outta MY bar!

The jokes are few and far between. What gives ?? I'll have to resubmit some old ones for the new members of the group and to cheer-up others. Just bought some more $20 LIBS and ABX. I RATIONALIZE I'm "averaging down". Won't commit all my funds at any one time. Not in this market.

Full moon, ships steaming to the Gulf, saber rattling, planetary alignment ....... time for another cup of java.

Hang in there Gloomy Gus ... the name of the game is to stay in the game. It gets better from here !!

I think someone is pulling our leg.

Gloomy Gus, you style and "you ruined me" phrase is just too close to LGB and Hepcat claims about how this site ruins people, so you aren't fooling me.
If you are for real, I would say "be that a lesson to you" that you should listen, read, but make a decision with your own mind!

To Gloomy Gus.
You carried your comments to far to be believable.

To Rumur and Rumurmill.
You need to learn to spel RUMOR.

I feel your pain friend. If misery loves company,you are not alone as I have lost most everthing too. Take everthing you read at this site with a large grain of salt my friend! Hope things start to look up for you and don't pay attention to all the snide comments you are getting from the "gold experts"

kiwi----

no i'm not a learned scientist, just learned.

if you have not heard of something, does this make it not so,
even if it is?

don't be defensive about knowledge........ question
the message, not the messenger.

knowing a little about a lot..... or lot about a little.....

which is better? which are you? which am i? who cares, except
that EL NINO IS CAUSED BY SUB-SEA VULCANISM. fact. you have grown
today grass-hopper. today vulcanism and tectonics, tomorrow a pebble from the sands of time!!!!

cherokee!; ) collector-of-the-fruit-from-the-tree-knowledge------
have-a-bite-matey----------

Interesting to compare the last 2 days of gold and silver prices. Silver: http://quotewatch.com/cgi/charts?symbol=SIZ7?=intra Gold: http://quotewatch.com/cgi/charts?symbol=GCZ7?=intra Any comments?

The Japanese are getting ready to take their money home. They are developing a rescue package to save their banks. The end of fiscal year ( and reporting period ) for Japanese banks is the end of March. I would think they would want this plan in place before then.

Gloomy: Tune in to CNBC tonight, they are going to teach people how to buy gold. Really. They are. Then you could sue a whole network, you would have thousands you could blame and whine too.

jan-----

thank-you, and please continue as you have my vote to
help to protect the sanctity of the written word!

you are now given the title of word monitor......go in peace......

and shoot from the hip, and aim for their lip!

cherokee!; ) MR-P-eurodollar

Dear Gus:

I feel your pain having lost alot myself in this market. However, you made two
mistakes: using leverage and putting all your eggs in one basket.
You really can't blame the folks here for your errors. Besides, the advice is sound for the longer term. Unfortunately, by leveraging yourself to the hilt, you didn't give the longer term time to happen.

Miro: I am very "real" and I am in PAIN! Haha: I am NOT pulling anyone's leg and this is NO joke to ME! Tolerant1: I do take reponsibilty ( partial ) for my actions but this site is NOT blameless!

All:

Despite the constant media drumbeat of deflation, contraction, slowdown, etc., the single best indicator of inflation, in fact the only one which really counts, namely the money supply, continues to surge. This past week saw a mighty surge in M3 of around 28 billion dollars. This brings the quarterly increase in M3 to around 150 billion dollars. M3 is now growing at a hair under 12% on a quarterly basis.

Money is being created far faster than the assets for which it will be used to price. This means one and only one thing. The price of assets is going higher. Which ones, is a different topic. However, it should be noted that the recent sale of modern art in the Ganz collection brought 200 million dollars, with all time highs recorded for many artists. There are many people with more money than they know what to do with.

Sharp stock rally today not that surprising in view of very bullish put/call ratios and the extremely negative tick numbers on recent selloffs. Now more fools will be encouraged to assume all is well and send more billions to the mutual fund companies.

Today's action again goes to show how dangerous it is to fool around with short-lived puts and calls. Especially when the market goes your way AFTER the puts or calls expire worthless as the vast bulk of them do.

This market will go way down when it is ready, but many put buyers will lose everything trying to play the short-term swings. Better to buy long-lived calls or a bear fund such as Rydex Ursa and stick with it.

What we need now, is a serious discussion of the rock bottom cost gold can be produced at. RYO is doing an across the board lay-off. GSR is reporting substantial losses. Who will gobble up whom? What is the real cost of gold production to the miners?

At the rate we are proceding, mining company closures are coming soon if the price of gold does not rise. This will dramatically affect the supply demand equation, even the paper markets will have to responde to this when it happens.

Now, will the miners own up to the REAL cost of production + profit margin please?

Sorry about the blank post.
Where is your supporting documentation on El Nino? My info is that El Nino is caused by a subsidence of the normal winds which blow the warmer waters westward and allow the cooler waters to rise to the surface. Now we have your word against mine. As with the kidney story posted earlier, don't believe it just because someone on the Kitco site sez it, not even cherokee.

Wasn't the fruit of the tree of knowledge what got us in this position in the first place? ( Re:Genesis 3 )

Gloomy Gus -- No accounting for manipulated markets, nor mentalities that put all of their eggs in one basket. Personally, I DO have that 'foxhole' dug and it DOES contain physical metals. Certainly not ALL of my resources by any stretch of the imagination! I will continue to add to it with other items of use. Secondly, I do not do stocks. I only trade in futures, and I am mostly in and out of them in a short period of time. I've only posted one call on the S&P here and that was for a fall to the 920 Dec area and maybe a bit less. It did ALL that and continued on down to the 872! Blew my mind! Beyond that, I've commented on some entry points for other commodities from time-to-time.
By the way, there are no 'professionals' here. Only people trying to gain some additional knowledge of market forces and attempting some cause/effect of those same forces.

I guess we are now hearing the 'crying in the streets'. That which 'professionals' deem to be the new buying time. I'll take it under advisement as an investor ( not in stocks ) and play it as a day-trader.

George - bring that pony out again ( volume at the close?... )
Gus - prey or pray ( the world is cold - what you lost paper - why that's "nothing" according to many here )
Being squished like a bug.

Markus, JackTR, Y2Jbug,
You must be fairly new on this site. Gary North's URL has been posted here 7 times since February. Including me there are 6 or 7 ( Miro, D.A. and others ) posters here who since April have been discussing Y2K and its effects on global financial system. I have stated here that it is my theory that the administration is aware of the possible effects of y2k and it is in a stalling mode, in order to be able to blame the financial crisis on y2k. For another 1.5 years, I believe, they are attempting to soft land the economy.

The DOW is your religion. To you she looks like a beautiful woman. The rest of us recognize her as a cheap whore.

Please lay more offerings on the alter of the DOW. She'll reward you with the spoils of the working man for every new "convert" you bring to her.

Her priests are the stock brokers and the sacrafice is merely your life's savings. Please continue with your holy work by preaching defeatism and spewing sewage at this site. Your rewards are coming very soon. Very soon.

D.A.: Do you have any thoughts-opinions on the Canadian Dollar?

Kiwi: Your 15:36 Didn't know your were such a heavyweight! All that earth physics. Are you a geophysicist? I would like to know how serious you are about that Chinese dam affecting the Earth's rotation. I do know the melting of the Ice caps could be a serious matter, so it is not nonsense! Are you really researching that?
Marcus: I have been studying cycles and their relation to the markets for nearly a year. Have downloaded hundreds of megabytes of time series data, sunspots, neutron flux, magnetic field fluctions, ElNino phenomena, etc, as well as planetary info. With regard to the planets, and human cycles, I have only been able to make sense out the full moon effect -- but not to the point of profiting investment-wise. There are $1200 Astroinvestment programs out there that allow you to correlate the planets with the historical DOW, but that is too rich for me. You probably know that Astroinvesting has had a resurgence recently, and there are some traders who do extremely well with this, as long as about 2/3 of the decision comes from traditional information. Look at the Astrikos site if you get a chance, where the Bradley Siderograph is given from 1987 to the present. That is free, and very interesting.
There is clearly something to this Astroinvesting, though the investor must choose the direction of the turningpoints.

I'm getting madder by the minute! How can you have the nerve to call the people MAKING money in the stock market,FOOLS? With all due respect YOU are the FOOL! I guess up is down,isn't it?

Gloomy Gus -- Don't lay blame on anyone but yourself. Two questions; 1 ) Did you open your trading account of your own free will?
2 ) Did anyone force you to buy what you did?

You sound like a modern day liberal, "It's everyone elses fault but mine!" Meow.

Please! Your not the first to lose money in the markets. Further, if GAMBLED that much to be on the brink of financial disaster, you need serious help. And I don't mean a lawyer either.

I bet anyone $100 that Gloomy Gus is LGB!

Gloomy Gus -- welcome back LGB...

Gloomy Gus: Let's face it. Virtually all who have played gold from the long side these past 2 years have lost money. That includes me. But I long ago learned the folly of leverage, the virtues of diversification, and never let losses run. Consequently my setbacks have been modest. I expect to make this up many fold when the gold market does turn for real as I think it will quite soon.

Gloomy Gus -- One more thing. I think of my physical metals possession no differently than I do any other form of insurance I carry; protection! That's all. I feel that should it ever be of high 'dollar value', it will be because the dollar can't buy s__t anymore, for whatever reason. Other than that, it 'might' spike up and be worth more in dollar terms. Should that happen, fine. Should that not happen, my metals will still be worth a hell of a lot more than all those dollars I've ever spent on all that other insurance over the years! I won't EVER get any of that back!

Ted:

I don't have any strong views on the Canadian buck. Our system is long a medium size position. The economists over at Morgan Stanley have been trumpeting how the Canadian dollar was vastly undervalued but this has not had much of an effect. The lowering of base metal prices and gold prices is not good for the currency. This is where lots of export dollars are garnered. The economy has been quite strong and seems to be getting stronger so more rate increases are in the pipeline. This should be supportive. All in all, who knows. Probably not a big deal in either direction but more risk to the upside.

Any whales spotted? Is there a time when if they don't show up they aren't coming?

The nasty weather we had today in Connecticut should be heading your way. Better get the salt supplies ready.

Off to dinner with the wife. BBL.

Shek: terribly sorry, yes I am a newcomer, pounding that dead equine. I take Gary North with a grain of salt, although I thought the gold reference in InterWeek was interesting.

Panda
I think that $250 is the absolute minimum. Anything below and all mines shut down.

Mortgages account for about 46 per cent of banks'
total loans.

Loans disbursed since May are at the highest risk
as they would have represented flat purchases at or
near the peak of property prices, the report sai
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971114011716055?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2256

Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.94

The TSE gold index closed at the high of the day and the XAU just a hair below the high.

Wonder what happened to Glenn? His commentary is sorely missed.

Gloomy gus.
I see you haven't sold your computer yet...hidden asset no doubt !

Canada gold stocks hit new lows as bullion tumbles

TORONTO, Nov 14 ( Reuters ) - Shares in Canadian gold miners sank to year lows on Friday as investors dumped precious metal stocks in the face of plunging bullion prices.

The Toronto Stock Exchange's heavyweight gold and precious metals index tumbled 387 points or 5.75 percent to 6357.20 around midday. The gold index hit a 52-week low of 6337.89 earlier in the session.

Canadian gold shares followed South African and Australian gold stocks lower on Friday as spot prices slid below the key US$300 per ounce level, hitting a low of US$299.00/US$299.50.

Bullion has been in a steady decline since July when Australia's central bank sold some of its gold reserves, sparking fears that other banks would follow suit.

News earlier this week that Germany's Bundesbank had begun lending gold to the market was viewed by some market watchers as a first step to outright selling.

With gold prices hovering at 12-1/2 year lows, high-cost producers are under intense pressure to slash costs, delay or close unprofitable mines.

Some North American miners have already moved to restructure their operations, including Barrick Gold Corp ( NYSE:ABX - news; Toronto:ABX.TO - news ) , Echo Bay Mines ( Toronto:ECO.TO - news ) and Getchell Gold Corp ( AMEX:GGO - news; Toronto:GGO.TO - news ) .

Analysts expect most miners will need to revalue their reserves amid a persistently low gold price.

``The second shoe is dropping. As this gold price gets below the US$300 level, a lot of the reserves will have to be marked down at year end,'' said John Ing, president of Maison Placements Canada Inc.

``I think it's everybody. A lot of reserves are booked at US$375 or plus an ounce,'' Ing said.

Barrick, North America's biggest gold producer, fell 1.10 to 24.90 by midday, after earlier hitting a 52-week low of 24.40.

Placer Dome Inc ( NYSE:PDG - news; Toronto:PDG.TO - news ) , Canada's second largest gold miner, dropped 0.85 to 18.05 after sinking to a low of 17.45.

Echo Bay was down 0.60 to 4.05, just shy of a low of 4 earlier in the session.

Getchell was off 0.70 at 43.50.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .254

Jan rumor rumour, -- relacks

Sorry to dissapoint you but I am NOT LGB but I sure wish I'd taken his advice a long time ago. George Cole: Thank you very much for responding but it doesn't make me feel much better. How could I have been so stupid to follow the advice at this site but I guess I'm just GULLIBLE.

Mr Sheu issued one caveat about Taiwan's financial
outlook, saying the island's economy would be
adversely affected if the Korean won fell below
1,000 to the US dollar.

"If the South Korean won falls below 1,000, it will
more or less affect the Taiwan dollar," Mr Sheu
said.

He said Taiwan had received information the
Korean central bank was determined to defend the
won at 1,000 and would spend US$10 billion in
reserves to do so.

"The financial storm in Southeast Asia and
Northeast Asia has not finished," he said. "We will
pay special attention to Japan and Korea."

Economists have warned that, unlike the
depreciations that have swept Southeast Asia, a
sharp slide in the won with respect to the Taiwan
dollar would undermine Taiwan's competitiveness in
its best export sector - semiconductors and
electronics.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971114013028087?=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2332

Anyone have any idea why trading in pegasus gold was halted today? News pending.....

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Opinions on the market activity?
I sold my XAU and SPX puts today for a small profit. I think the financial problems, and the IRAQ situation, etc. have yet to affect the markets significantly, though I missed the Oil stock bottom today I think. I am still bearish on the general markets, but am amazed at their strength.
I think the market is going to rally ( or stagnate ) for a while before the next major turning point. I often get too involved in what I think the market is doing, rather than what the market is actually doing, and have gotten burned. I tend to move weeks to months before the actual event.

PGU trading halted due to news. Iraq news; maybe we'll bomb them?

Y2kBug,
Actually, Gary North is not that far off in his estimates and prognosis for the future. He does offer excellent links.
Whether you ar in the IT industry or not the following IRS link is a must read. You will need Acrobat Reader, but the link is informing, eye opening, freeing and a must read!
http://www.ustreas.gov/treasury/bureaus/irs/prime/primerfc.htm

My situation is very funny isn't it and by the way my computer is leased and I will be returning it next week. To laugh at other's misery is SICK!
I feel sorry for you all!

For those interested in astrology: http://38.209.4.67/open.html
WARNING: Monday the 17th is going to be a very big day! Check it out.

LGB
I must tip my hat to you. You are funny, inovative, persistent and I for one would like to see you stay and post here. You have a way of getting people excited. Stay on!

Gloomy Gus -- If you're telling the truth, and you're using a leased computer, then you are truely living on the edge to begin with! You probably had no business being in the markets to begin with. I'm not trying to be cruel, just stating the facts..

BBML

Lurky: Can't find any Pegasus news.
All: The analyst who broke the Chase Manhattan trading losses story is complaining that other banks will not talk to him. The implication made was that they have losses to hide.

Gus.
look at it this way...many of us here are crying inside also, your'e nuthin special...i'm down an awful chunk myself...be a man, you can bounce back or boo-hoo in your hankie 'till xmas...realize the advice here is coming free and you can take it/leave it...never take candy [advice] from strangers unless you can test it yourself, sounds like your a bit lazy...dig deep...when the going gets tuff...
remember Knute Rockne?

Gloomy Gus,

During 1986 and 1987, I subscribed to the "Prudent Speculator" newsletter written by Al Frank. Al made his reputation by buying turnaround stocks, and holding them for long periods. By 1987, the only cheap stocks on his buy list were savings and loans. I felt that buying stocks cheap and holding them was the way to go. I bought a bunch of California S&L s. The crash hit. I have a strong will and held them all.

During 1988 and 1989 the market rebounded beautifully and my stocks all went bankrupt.

My advice is to determine which of your holding will survive this gold bear, looking out for a couple of years. For safety, expect that some of these companies may die.


You should sell the crap on any bounce in the XAU. You can recognize short term tops by the euphoria here at Kitco. It comes fast and goes just as quickly. Keep the ones with good financials.

If you have margin calls, you just got a painful education in buying things with other people's money. Nothing more. You will be back again, and will be a lot wiser. It happened to me and I am.

To: Gloomy Gus@Down.In.The.Dumps,

I think you need to remember that ALL investment is risk, and the higher the possible return the greater the implied risk.
Like someone else on this board, I sold my gold stocks in Nov of 1996 because I could no longer understand what was going on, or why. That was more risk than I was willing to assume.
I can to this board to learn. ( And have. )

Remember the old AmEx commercial, Never carry more cash than you can afford to lose., Id suggest your new investment criterion be: Ill never assume more risk than I can afford.

This doesnt help how miserable you feel today, but can effect how you feel down the road.. Making mistakes is painful, but it isn't fatal.

Come on now. Pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and start again.
But attend to the above.
Good Luck.

The more I think about it, Gloomy is good therapy for Kitco. Think about it. This is just one whiny lemming. Imagine the chorus when millions upon millions of lemmings are whining from their losses while grazing in the great paradigm paper fields of the last fifteen years, which have been reduced to nothing but short nubs of receipt books, which are too chewy and have little bits of metal in the roots.

y2kbug--

this theory was proven this year as the waters
began showing a gradual warming registered from
hundreds of buoys strewn across the worlds oceans.
the areas where a temperature increase above average
was noted, were explored using thermal and visual
systems which conclusively ( video ) showed an under-sea
rift system that was very active whilst being studied
this year. the active under-sea rifts are in the same
areas where warming FIRST occurs, and spreads from.


this scientific mission was sponsored by, and paid for, with
us tax dollars. most of the scientists were gov't employees
from several disciplines of expertise. they were estremely well
funded with vessels that could record video at any depth found
here on earth.
this was a 1 hr documentary on the learning channel
about 5 weeks ago. it showed the scientists celebrating
their discovery of the cause of el nino. the program
was advertised as being about el nino; the name of the
show escapes me. as far as the surface winds causing a
warming of the oceans.....horse-hockey! the surface area
of the ocean could ( from trade winds ) not transfer enough
heat at the current levels to cause the necessary rise in temp,
volumetrically speaking, to cause el nino. the temperature
at the surface of the ocean required to increase the
oceans temperature to create el nino would be so high as to
be obvious to ANY surface dweller with instrumentation that
some-thing BIG is going on! this does not happen and thus
MUST occur some-where else where there is an interface to
allow transfer of heat.....duh...there is only one interface
left....the ocean floor. what produces heat with-in the earths
crust? tectonics matey, tectonics.

cherokee!; ) standing-on-the-shoulders-of-giants-whilst-smoking-the-bean-of-truth-----------have-a-toke-of-knowledge--kiwi.....oh-yes....peace-bro

STANBUL, Nov 14 ( Reuters ) - Traded volume on the Istanbul gold exchange jumped to 1,857 kg on Friday from Thursday's
574 kg, due to physical demand fuelled by gold prices diving in the world markets, dealers said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/istanbul_gold_volume_1.html

John Disney - I find your scenario much easier to believe then Anothers.
It also confirms a statement a local JV president told me this summer
when I asked him about financing. He told me a common way to bring a mine
to production was to borrow the money. The lenders wanting to reduce
the risk of the loan always forced them to forward sell some of the
production to lock in enough profit to pay back the loan. He told me
it was almost impossible for a JV to get a loan anymore without forward
selling.
From the CBs view, loaning the gold does provide some income from the
bullion along with helping increase new production by increasing the size
of the loanable gold. This could help the JV companies in getting loans.
The downside is just as you concluded, the early part of this program
will increase the available supply of tradable gold which should decrease
the price. Once the supply is stable, the price should settle to a fair
value. I'm not forgetting the possiblity of abuse, which probably
has taken place.
This would be an extremely easy sell to the politicans; low gold prices
are viewed as low inflationary environment, it also could be argued that
jobs will be created for the new mines, plus income from the leasing will
help the balance sheet. When was the last time you saw a politican turn
down a plan that would increase revenue, create jobs, and help sell bonds
in the short term?

The two major problems I see are a default on the loan and any damage
to your currency because of decreased gold backing. Neither one of
these seem to critical to me when I control hordes of M1 tanks and a
few dozen Tridents that roam the seas.

That aside, I'm still buying SGOLY - I really like that dividend.

I found this! Monolith of gold has been discovered in the Southern
Hemisphere! This is no joke. Monolith is the size of 30 square house.
Miner has been told to shut-up about it. Financial markets had to
be adjusted to make way for this little baby. 250 is out of the
question but there will be serious fan hitting for everyone
concerned.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/emerging_market_debt_1.html

Hey nomercy, Istanbul isn't that in Turkey...does this mean were all gonna have a
HAPPY THANKSGIVING...MMmmmmmm can taste those golden candy-yams already

Shek - I think LGB mentioned that he chats over at SI ( Silicon Investor ) .
Maybe you can find him over there. Has anyone else felt the quality
of posts and discussions this week has been terrific! Easily the best
week I since June/July.

Tolerant 1:That was pretty funny.Really LOL.Think you will enjoy this
little read.This fellow tries to call em as he sees em.One of the few
in the mainstream I like. http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyMarkets/hanley.html

Gloomy:I tend to agree with many here that you only really loose when you
sell out.Things will turn..just a matter of what you can stand till it
does.Wether or not you are being sincere or not,I think you reflect the
feelings of many who have been buying against a trend in hopes of a turn
around sooner than later.Most believe it will come..but when..thats the
question.The strong will survive and flourish,as is the case in all major
transitions.The weak will capitulate selling out the the strong.IT's been
going on since the beginning of time.My sincere regards to you and all
you represent.

hepcat.
early post by watcher says you are really AG in disguise!!! wanna set the story strait ?

Any guesses on what kind of news Pegasus will spew on Monday? I got me a couple of shares of this sick puppy.

I must of missed John Disney's post which you mentioned. Could you repost it or give me the date/time? What you said makes a lot of sense.

Hepcat: I'm sorry but I didn't understand. Was that gold $250.

All will be revealed in due time. I am of the opinion that if I
reveal my true identity now, what we are striving to achieve will
also be exposed. Lemmings are sleeping and there is no need to ring
thier alarm bells. Take care all, a goldbug is to be admired.

And the Big Bad Wolf...we didn't read anything from him for a long time..

Shouldn't it go out of his lair by now...????

Pour me a double

May your littlerbox be lined with GOLD!I own the stock of the company
who found it.All will be revealed in good time.Oh,and it was placed there
by the GoldGods for all GOOD people.You own the stock toooooooo.......

Barnes -
Date: Thu Nov 13 1997 23:49
John Disney ( jdisney@iafrica.com ) ID#24140:

O Governo anunciou ontem diversas medidas para levantar as bolsas de valores. O presidente
do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econmico e Social ( BNDES ) , Luiz Carlos Mendona
de Barros, anunciou que o banco vai abrir uma linha de crdito no valor de R$ 1 bilho para
financiar empresas pblicas e privadas interessadas em recomprar suas prprias aes em
bolsas. O emprstimo tem prazo de seis meses para ser pago, renovveis por mais seis
mais, e sero cobrados juros anuais de 8% acima da variao da Taxa de Juros de Longo
Prazo ( TJLP ) . As primeiras liberaes devero sair na prxima semana, mas no antes de o
banco analisar o risco de crdito de cada empresa.

Numa ao coordenada, a Comisso de Valores Mobilirios ( CVM ) baixou uma instruo
dobrando de 5% para 10% o limite para que as empresas recomprem seus papis. Esse
percentual aplica-se ao total de aes que circulam no m
http://www.oglobo.com.br/

I know you know I know. I sort of would like to be the one that
spills the beans. I also value my ninth life.

I'm sorry that I cannot feel SORRY for any crybabies today. Guess there's not too many of us left, those of us who stuffed paper and
cardboard in our shoes when times were REALLY tough.

You are in control of your own money. If you make foolish investments with money you have borrowed or money you can not afford to lose then ONLY YOU ARE TO BLAME. You are in control of your own money. No one is prying it out of your hands. You are the one who CHOOSES TO RISK LOSSES to make gains. You WILL LOSE MONEY in the process of making money. If you haven't figured out what you can afford to lose and how long you might have to wait to regain your loses THAN YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS in investing in anything. Take a course or two. Find someone who HAS MADE ALOT OF MONEY doing what you want to do and get an apprenticeship in the trade. Otherwise DON'T DO IT we beg of you!!!

Spare us the future sob stories, please. If you lose all your money and your house and your family and your job than YOU MUST ADMIT YOU HAVE BEEN FOOLISH. Deal with it.

You guys are the tough ones. Keep us on the ground, OK. I grew up with the depression as a 'virtual' experience through the story telling powers of my family. We may be at it again shortly and need to learn all the old lessons over again.

Listen high & mighty stoic posters, we ``crybabies`` got anally loved today. This is a gold site so it lends itself to venting by gold investors. You think we want your bloody sympathy? or to be told we`re foolish ? screw you jack.

IMHO if you allow your emotions to be tied to the charts you will go crazy sooner than later. Part of the education is whether you can seperate your viseral involvements from your rational in investments. If you can't then sooner or later you will not play because it will be to hard on you. If you play small enough in relation to your over all resources than this takes a big load off of your mind. If you know your exit and entry points in advance and stick to your limits than you can calmly execute your strategy even if losing a few bucks. You know you are safe and can play again.

Seems the "whinners" that have fell today can be recently found to have entered "TEST" within the last week. IMHO they are all just a little snot nose pimple face that got ahold of daddys computer.

RELAX MAN -- When you pick it up, please, please, read "this side
towards the enemy" ....

When pointing a finger to others you will notice three fingers pointing back to yourself. Meaning, don't blame others for your own mistakes, live and learn. These markets are highly manipulated and didn't react the way they should have. I for one appreciate the kitco posters and will continue to lurk. BTW Gold will prevail in the end. It was here in the beginning so shall it be here in the end. God Bless you all.

TO Shek ( re: 16:23 post )
You forgot something. Barrick/Bema will continue to mine. For
atleast 2 more years.

Shek, if the flag goes up which would you rather have. A 250bbd in the us or a 10000 in Saudi? As for the sour crude produced in the US all refineries in the US can handle sour. In fact the newest refineries are set up to handle sour and extract more products. One thing you get out of the heaver grades of crude are asphalts. The margins on this stuff are unbelieveable. Koch set up its Minnesota refinery to run on this stuff. They send Myan Heavy from Mexico to this refinery. I thought Calif. crude was tough untill I saw this stuff. One thing I am looking at is the trading of WT sour. If the refineries feel there may be problems with mideast oil, look for the volume to increase on sour contracts. It takes from 14 to 21 days to get crude from the Midland delivery to the refineries. And the guys trading this stuff for delivery are no dummies. I was down in Midland last week. From two weeks earlier the tanks have been pumped out. It may be from the ending of refinery turnarounds or somthing else. I am intrested to see what refinery stock on hand will be next week.

Pegasus records a loss of better than $10 a share. Looks like they'll be done by the end of '98. They are in default of some loan covenents.

All you posers and baby cries who are loosing their homes! Poor Gloomy Gus said something to the effect "I was in a paper market my stock was doing great, I pulled all my money at the beginning of this year, put it into gold and here I am bankrupt, need to sell my house."

OK you posers, lets look at this scenario. You were in stock market. If you were doing good ( as you said ) lest assume 4 years ago you put $100K into stocks. For three years you earned 25% each year ( its less as you paper bugs could make if you invested good ) . Your $100K was worth 200K at the beginning of this year. You took it out because you were greedy and was worried that market will go down and wipe out your gains, but gold will make this spectacular run.

You bought gold? In January the high price as $370, currently sits on $300. OK you lost about 20% it means your $200K went down to $160K. You still are above your initial investment so need to sell your house.

You bought gold stocks? Gold mutual stocks, e.g, FSAGX is down 26% from the beginning of this year. It means you are down to $146K.

How is it exactly that you lost all your money? If you did, I have no mercy for you. You are just pure stupid!!

Steve Kaplan reports that PGU has defaulted on some of its debt. In other words they are bankrupt. They are the first, but will not be the last. Hopefully, this savage bear will trigger a massive industry shakeout and consolidation leaving fewer but stronger players

George Cole -- They are more than broke!!!

RYO announces cost cutting plans and selective mining plus low cost Kemess to reach profitability next year ( or near even ) and profit by 99 even if gold prices fall further. Cash flow will increase dramatically with Kemess completion in April which is 70% complete and on schedule. Other rights on the board are all low cost and will be developed with Kemess Cash flow.

a few months ago PGU announced they would even be selling the corporate jet in a cost cutting measure...THAT was the sign then to get out and / or stay out...you just gotta read between the lines an skip most of the hype !!

Pegasus to close Zortman, Pulalli, Beal, Mt. Todd. Care and maint. $421.3 million in charges or $10.19/share. Q3 losses = 28cents/share.
In default of some loan covenants.

I have a question. How do we find out the fiscal health of a mining company so as to avoid the next Pegasus? Is there a debt-to-equity level at which there should be concern? Thanks.

Concerns mount as U.S money supply continues surge

By John P. Hughes

NEW YORK, Nov 14 ( Reuters ) - The recent resurgence in money supply has Wall Street analysts concerned about inflationary pressures despite difficulties in establishing a direct connection between the two.

Aggregate U.S. money supply figures for October, released late Thursday by the Federal Reserve, again showed robust growth as the economy rounded into the fourth quarter of 1997.

The annualized rate of increase for October was 4.9 percent for M2 -- within the Fed's current official target range of 1.0 to 5.0 percent, while M3 at 8.4 percent was well above target of 2.0 to 6.0 percent.

In the week ended November 3, M2 rose $16 billion and M3 almost $29 billion, or 5.3 percent and 8.6 percent above their fourth quarter averages, respectively, according to Adam Blankman, Treasury market analyst at MMS International.

``There's no doubt money supply is growing ahead of what the Fed allows for and in ( the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee ) September, they made note of the fact that they're paying more attention to it,'' said Kevin Flanagan, first vice president and money market economist at Dean Witter Reynolds Inc.

The Fed wasn't likely to make money supply a preeminent factor in making policy decisions anytime soon, he said, but the aggregates could take on a heightened role as they clearly show there has been an explosion in money supply.

The increased liquidity generally has banks scrambling to fund loan demand -- a scenario that often has led to higher consumer spending levels and a rise in inflationary pressures.

While the importance of the relationship between the overall economy and monetary aggregates has become more difficult to measure, they still are weighed during policy considerations. M2 in particular has been used to try to measure consumer demand, real or theoretical.

The Monetary Control Act, passed in 1979, lifted interest-rate ceilings depository institutions could pay on demand accounts which led to a mushrooming of new products such as NOW and sweep accounts. So a traditionally easy measure of money supply becomes more difficult to decipher.

The total stock of money in the economy is measured in three ways by the Federal Reserve: M1, which keeps tabs on the sum of cash, demand deposits, travelers checks, and interest-earning checking accounts; M2, which equals M1 plus savings and other highly liquid instruments, and M3, which tracks M2 and other very liquid instruments.

``The Fed should pay more attention to the money aggregates,'' said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. He said a correction from a sharp spurt in money supply seen this summer was to be expected.

``There was a brief period in the early '80s when it was not considered as healthy ( a barometer ) ,'' Resler said. However, it has proved to be a useful tool since, he added.

Flanagan said an explosion of primary dealerships in the mid-1980s led to a concommitant eruption in the number of professional ``Fed watchers,'' but by the early 1990s many economists were writing off the importance of money supply.

Still, not all economists place great credence in the numbers. Indeed, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan downplayed the importance of M2 in recent years, although the Fed now seems to be reevaluating its stance on the numbers.

Charles Lieberman, managing director at Strategic Partners, disagreed that the numbers remained very useful.

``Clearly the Fed has not given up on money supply ( being important ) ,'' Lieberman said. ``But the documents ( aggregates ) still appear to be a secondary consideration.''

However, he acknowledged that the numbers have corelated to the economy ``to some extent.''

MMS's Blankman said the Fed realizes it has to place its attention on a broad base of numbers, but the continued expansion in the aggregates was one of the factors helping them maintain a tightening bias.

While the corelations may not be as tight as they had been in the past, the surge in money supply can't be ignored, Flanagan said.

...RYO another hype-story similar to PGU...cost cutting often means slowing yet unable to stop the bleeding...sea of public float available makes it a complete undesirable, stay away !

cherokee..do the math before getting too high on "knowledge"
JTF..I was serious about the earth wobbles ...nobody in physics wants to hear about it, they left simple rotational dynamics and fluid mechanics behind when Rutherford ( a kiwi ) started splitting up gold atoms, geophysics no just fluids mathematician with some universal ideas, ever heard of the geometric algebra of spacetime and rotations in 4 dimensions?

Is PGU going to pennies come Monday ?

A. Goose, take a gander ...

Total return 7/11/97 In Local Currency
( annual quoted below, if you want week/month let me know )
From FT Echoes of boom and bust, Philip Coggan

US.
Cash, 5.69
Bonds 3-5 yr, 7.10
Bonds 7-10 yr., 8.33
Equities, 32.00

Japan
Cash, 0.63
Bonds, 3-5 yr., 4.08
Bonds, 7-10 yr. 8.90
Equities, -16.4

Germany
Cash, 3.31
Bonds 3-5 yr, 4.16
Bonds, 7-10 yr, 8.50
Equities, 37.1

France
Cash, 3.64
Bonds, 3-5 yr, 3.90
Bonds 7-10 yr, 7.26
Equities, 27.7

Italy
Cash, 7.00
Bonds 3-5 yr, 11.72
Bonds 7-10 yr, 19.86
Equities, 56.1

UK
Cash, 6.75
Bonds 3-5 yr. 8.07
Bonds 7-10 yr, 12.65
Equities, 25.3

Whats happening in the east is very similar to the 1930s depression, says Michael Howell ( Manias, Panics and Crashes: History of Financial Crises ) with the regions economies suffering from asset deflation and attempting competitive devaluations.
Goose, Ive translated the figures in SDRs, and--our discussion yesterday re: The Economist MacDonald Burger Price Index-- in SDR it becomes quite apparent who has to devalue, and who may have a shot at revalue.

Even if the IMF adjust the basket to equal 20% weightings, two of the five have some pain ahead...

...thats why AG last year said he doesn't use money supply in his
inflation measuring tools anymore...so he could get away with pumping it up to keep the economy afloat...white collar conism at its best...follow errr i mean don't follow the yellow bouncing ball...greenspanizm at its best...huh whad' he say ???

Your suicide threat and attempt to implicate GSC and others here as being the root cause of your misfortunes is simply emotional blackmail, an effort to control others. If you need help call your local hotline where someone is there to talk with you. I'm sorry if your life is disintegrating. I do hope that you find bedrock and begin to build there where no tide or storm can ruin you.

Why is there a cyclical nature to El Nino? Whatever causes El Nino must be governed by a cycle as well. What is that cycle?

You guys are being a little tough on Gus when the poor guy is down in the dumps,wouldn't you say. A little compassion wouldn't kill you!

Kahunna Grande,
Thanks for your post. What is your feeling about oil between now and 12-25-97? It did OK this week.

RYO profitable in 1998/1999? My rear buttock it is.
Bleeding just like all other companies.

TO Lurking Jane ;
Short PGU big time. Same fate as ABX when they announced
massive write-offs.

Mikey, its you again. Good to see you. My $299 next week is still looking good, isn't it?

TO Shek;
Its coming.$20 more.One more drop coming.Start
accumulating @ 270-280.Oil is KING for now.

http://nypostonline.com/business/785.htm

TO Lurker xxx;
Let Gus feel sorry for himself.We got Greenspan,Hussein,
Bema Gold to worry about.

TO ElNino ( re: 19:22 ) ;
Dont worry bout' warm ocean temperature. Start looking @
the basket full of CHEAP gold stocks.

Sounds good. What are your favorites?

To Mickey, What are those cheap gold stocks? ABX? PDG? It'll be about 5 years before they recover from this gold slump.

TO KitcoLurker;
Keep close eye on cash ( balance sheet ) .Watch insider buying/selling.
Stay in constant touch with ceo/president. NOT YOUR BLOODY DAMN
BROKER. Mining companies are always capital intensive. Always will
be high debt to asset ratio.Thats a start.

It's butt kickin time ya big moron.

Date: Fri Nov 14 1997 19:10
SDRer ( @Reality.check ) ID#287280:

So what you ( or the algorithm ) are telling me, is that the U.S. dollar ( 5.69 ) , British pound ( 6.75 ) and Italian lira ( 7 ) are almost equivalent in terms of the sdr. Scary.

TO ElNino;
Wait til gold fluctuates between 270-280. Barrick gold will drop some
more.Barrick/Bema/Placer prices DIRECTLY WIRED in the price of gold.
NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT. Look at Barrick Leaps - January 2000.
Very interesting. I can feel the swallowing of intermediate companies
in the near future.Barrick is KING. Lowest cost producer
in the world I believe ( I could be wrong ) .IF Barrick can have massive
write-downs, you better believe other companies will be coming forward
soon.

First: The xau again managed to close above its decade plus lower trendline of 75 at 77+. This is very heartwarming considering the beating we took today. I own a small amount of Royal Oak which I bought at 4,3 and 2.5 , today it closed at 1+11/16. I again went back and studied their chart and projections. They have always been reputable and honest, 98 looks great and 99 much better. I have to try to scrape up some more money and dive in. It could be the buy of the century. Look for yourself.

WSJ version:Gold Drops to a 12-year Low
Amid Selling by Gold
Producers

An INTERACTIVE JOURNAL News Roundup

NEW YORK -- Gold tumbled to its lowest level in more than 12 years
Friday, dropping below $300 an ounce amid selling by gold producers
and on data showing inflationary pressures in the U.S. remain in check.

Gold for December delivery traded on the Comex division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange settled at $304.30 a troy ounce, having traded
at a low of $300. Spot gold prices, meanwhile, dropped through $300 a
troy ounce to a new twelve-and-a-half year low of $299.50.

Earlier in London, where the heavy selling pressure began, the afternoon
gold fixing was set at $301.75 an ounce, the lowest since $298.85 an
ounce on March 18, 1995.

Dealers said gold-producer selling kicked in just ahead of the London
fixing, fueling the slide.

The precious metal has extended a slide that began in early October, after
briefly climbing toward $340 a ounce in late September. Selling by
companies that produce the metal has been a source of concern, as well as
fears of selling by European central banks.

"Selling was widespread, initiated by producer forward selling out of
Australia. One large fund joined the fray and liquidated huge positions.
That sent the ball rolling," according to David Rinehimer, director of
futures research at Smith Barney in New York.

Some traders said a moderate sell-off by funds in Europe escalated into a
rout when computer-driven sell orders below $308 per troy ounce were
triggered.

"Prices really started shooting off in Europe when they hit some levels
which triggered stop-loss selling sending spot prices below $300" a troy
ounce, said Shinichi Kikuchihara, chief dealer of precious metals at Mitsui
USA in New York. Stop-loss selling refers to the activation of preplaced
sell orders.

Analysts said they couldn't pinpoint any single reason for Friday's rout.

"It was heavily sentiment-driven -- which we all know is super-bearish
right now," said Dinsa Mehta, global head of commodity risk at Chase
Manhattan Bank in New York.

In other commodity markets:

Y2K - Ok everyone. The problem with Y2k is not fixing the programs, it's finding the problem programs. You can't search for it because programmers could have named the date variables anything. For example, a programmer could have named a field containing pay date:

WS-PAY-DATE, WS-PAY-DT, WS-PAY-DTE, WS-PAY-YYMMDD,
WS-PDT, WS-PDTE, WS-PD, WS-COMMON-VARIABLE, ETC.

Now, here's the solution: It's relatively easy to find where the dates are
entered or assigned in a system. What's hard is finding out what fields they end up in 50,000 lines down the road.

Pick a date field, enter a "invalid" date - say zz-01-01, feed the bad date into your computer system. Any program that attempts to edit this date
or do a numeric calulation on the year ( zz ) in this date will "blow up" or abnormally terminate.

Fix the first program that blows up, then add a few lines of code to bypass kicking out the bogus date. Re-run your programs, fix the next program that blows up the same way, continue until your programs run cleanly, then go back and remove the bogus date bypass logic.

Y2K problem solved. You can say you heard first here on Kitco!

TO Tantalus Rex;
ABX closed @ $25.80Cdn.Look for $22Cdn before buying.
Barrick can produce an oz of gold @ $182US. ( my number could be out of
date by now ) . Whats the problem Tantalus Rex?

TO Silver;
You sound like a COBOL programmer with these variable names.

http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/current/index_sf0983.html

Took the following quote from SI site: "but- figure this out - Gold futures for Apr 98 330 contract traded higher today than close yesterday - and gold dropped $6? this AM. End of gold market is not as clear as some would believe."

Have not yet figured out what the comments re: the April futures contract signify. Any observations???

Could you provide some other web site addresses that discuss SDR or possibly post some articles re: SDR.

I used to subsribe to some newletters concerning the new currency. In the 80's I published a newsletter rating S&Ls on their safety. I might have some data you'd be interested in. Care to share info? My e-mail address is expand@pacbell.net Hope to hear from you soon. S

Could you provide some other web site addresses that discuss SDR or possibly post some articles re: SDR.

I used to subsribe to some newletters concerning the new currency. In the 80's I published a newsletter rating S&Ls on their safety. I might have some data you'd be interested in. Care to share info? My e-mail address is expand@pacbell.net Hope to hear from you soon. S

Mikey,
I am looking for gold to stay in the $285-310 range for a while. It would be beyond my comprehension if it fell below $275.

Is it true a radioactive Hepcat has 18 half-lives?

Here is a 13 year chart of the XAU. Notice the chart pattern for late 1984 and late 1987. See how they resemble the action of the past several months. Notice how after completing a low they moved up for several months of positive gains. http://www.tscn.com/wsc/timespan.html?TSym=XAU.X?445,12

Silver- I disagree with your premise that it is relativly easy to find where dates are entered into a system. Programs are so interdependent, 'fixing' one may screw up another that you, the fixer, don't even know exists. Meanwhile, another fixer across the country fixes the other program to accept what he assumes will be bad dates from your program ( he doesn't know you exist, remember ) , but you are feeding him good dates. And this is just the beginning....I'd say most companies couldn't even put together an inventory of their programs, not to mention dozens of patches that "Smith down the hall" threw together to get things right "just this once- we'll get the code straight after quarter-end", but alas, they never did..

A gold mine that is pumping so much gold out of the ground so quickly
that every other mine looks like a kiddies sand pit.

Donald, or anyone: Do you know of a site for up to date Korean Won/$?

If you wouldn't mind, post ticker symbol for royal oak, or full name. Know and the next few months, its blue light special on gold stocks

Donald:

Thanks for a view of the XAU chart. Just looking at the computer screen, it seems that if one draws a line at the bottom of 86 to late 92 bottom and the current position of the XAU we would have a nice support line.

What I have not yet understood with these charts from Wall Street City is what amount of time does each Bar line represent. Looking at the individual years and the numbers of bar line there seems to be 20 bar line per year. So it can't represent a monthly line nor a weekly line since there are 52 weeks per year. Just an observation. Probably would have to contact the site provider for an explanation. Just another mystery down the yellow brick road. : )

Please excuse my posts for the lack in grammer and spelling , get in to much of a rush!

http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/11/14/financial_news/koreabanks_1.html

Currency Chaos and Financial Colapse
Part 2
Financial gods


Throughout history,with reguards to politics or economics,one fundamental rule has always applied,"Those that have power take away from those that do not have power."
No analysis of todays financial situation is complete without discussing central bankers.These are the people whom society intrusts their financial future,to ensure that their money is safe and sound,and that economy's grow in a substainable manner.
Todays central bankers believe that they are so powerful that they can defy all economic principles.When governments indebt their citizens beyond their capacity to repay,they see no problems.As banks lend the savings of depositors on speculative loans with no source of repayment,they call it growth.When these banks have trillions of dollars in loan losses,they say all is well,your money is safe.
As country after country goes bankrupt,they have the answer,more debt in IMF loans.Their powers are so great that they can create debt at will and solve all financial problems.
Today,in Japan,sound money is based on;
---a government whose direct and indirect liabilities now total 150% of GNP and no one dares question how this will ever be repaid
---a government whose deficit runs at 7% of GNP and the financial industry asks it to spend more
---where most of the banks equity base consists of the value of its share holdings in the stock market ,values of which are falling rapidly,and on whose loan losses,which total
trillions of dollars in Japan and hundreds of billions of dollars in South East Asia,will leave depositors with only a fraction of their funds.
---where life insurance company's cannot meet their obligations,and with land values and stock markets continuing to fall will see only further losses
---where public pension plans have invested heavily in the stock market to prop it up and who will incur substantial losses as the banking system implodes and shares in company's reflect their economic and not speculative values

In the United States,sound money is based on;
---a government that is over 5 trillion dollars in debt.
---a stock market that trades at 5 times book value
---a consumer that is so over indebted that personal bankrucy's are at record levels at the height of a long economic expansion

Whether we look at China,Korea,Thailand,Indosnesia,Malaisa,Brazil and numerous other country's,we see example after example of the sound money pronised by these financial gods,the central bankers of the world.
Now these central bankers,having greated their world of sound money based on massive debt that can never be paid back know that they no longer need gold.They are so powerful that they can defy all economic fundamentals.

These financial gods threaten to sell gold creating fear.Then they loan their gold to speculators who sell it into the market to depress the price.Once the price is depresed we are told they will sell the gold that they have loaned to the speculators,ensuring that they get a low price for their gold and huge profits for the speculators.This is a logic only a financial god can understand.
Or maybe these financial gods do not wish to sell their gold,but only depress the price.It has been estimated that total gold loans may now be as high as 8000 tons.Given the years of production most gold company's have sold forward and the huge short position of the speculators,this figure is not unreasonable.With physical demand for gold far above mine supply,with many miners expected to close mines further contracting supply,have these central bankers asked the source of repayment for this 8000 tons of gold that they have lent out?To these gods,it seems that debt never has to be repaid.

Today the market is afraid of the central bank's selling their gold.What few seem to understand is that central banks could sell 8000 tons of gold and not increase the supply of gold on the market.This gold has already been sold.The only question is who will profit or lose from an uncompeted loan transaction.
The dynamics of todays gold market are really quite basic.Supply exceeds demand by a wide margin and the short position is reported to be 8000 tons.To maintain the present price,central banks must loan into the market the shortfall between supply and demand.To decrease the price further,they must loan even more.As mines close down,they will need to loan even more.
Someday,central banks will reach the limit of the gold they will loan.Demand now exceeding supply will cause the price to rise.A rising price and no supply to short the market will cause short sellers to cover.With short sellers now needing several years mine production to cover,the price will skyrocket.
When Asia collapses financially,all this is academic.
Central bankers have now created a massive short position in gold at a time when demand far exceeds supply.That they have chosen to do so at the very time they destroy their fiat currency's will change the world in a way not many now understand.

Let me review some basic economics.
I do not wish to debate which is better,commodity money or fiat money.The reality is that fiat money has been used for many years.In a system of fiat money,money is first created by the government and then multiplied by the banking system.While the money created by the government gives the government "free money",this has the parallel of gold miners finding more gold in a commodity money system.As long as governments create just the right amount of money,the system can operate satisfactorly.Problems only arise when too much money is created,as it destroys the value of money,just like finding a huge amount of gold would have a similar effect in a currency system based on gold.In the context of a global financial markets,should one country issue what becomes the world reserve currency,it will have the benefit of this free money which it issues and other countries hold.Essentially,the country with the reserve currency will print money which it exchanges for the goods of other countrys.These countrys now have reserves on which to base their currencys,and the issuer of the reserve currency now has the goods.The issuer of a currency has many obvious political and financial advantages and will fight very hard to maintain this advantage.The United States has had this benifit for much of the last 50 years.

Once money is created,it enters the banking system.Once in the banking system,it does not matter whether it was created by a fiat system or a commodity system,as it ceases to be currency and becomes credit money.The ability of a depositor to reexchange this credit money for curreny is dependant on the financial strength of the bank.Banks in theory can create unlimited amounts of credit money through the creation of loans.When a customer obtains a loan,the bank creates a loan account for the amount of the loan and deposits a similar amount of credit money in the customers credit account.In theory,banks can create an unlimited amount of loans and similar amounts of credit money,though in practice governments restrict the amount of loans that can be issued to a percentage the the banks capital base.
Now whether this monetary system works well depends on how well the money from the loans was utilized.In the case of a loan being utilized to build a factory to produce a valuable commodity,their are emmense benifits.Jobs are created for new factory workers,society gets a valuable commodity,the factory owners earn profits to repay the loan and reinvest or build savings,and the bank earns a profit while maintaining a strong balance sheet.It is a good example of a win win situation.
When a loan is made to build a factory to produce a product that their are too many of,we have a different effect.While initially their are some positive effects due to construction jobs and the hiring on new factory workers,things soon change arround.Losses result in the loan being unable to be repaid which will result in the loss of factory jobs as well as loan losses at the bank.This now reduces the banks ability to make new loans as well as repay funds to depositors.
As long as banks make loans that can be repaid from the income of the borrower,the financial system functions well.It is only when loans are made that cannot be repaid from income that the system breaks down.

Japan,in the 1980's wanted to substantially increase its manufacturing capacity.Their plan was very simple and quite sucessful.Japanese banks had large holdings in the shares of Japanese company's as well as land holdings.By substantially increasing the value of stocks and land,Japanese banks were now worth a lot more which increased their capital from which they could lend.Japanese company's,because the value of land and shares they owned also increased now had the security to plege for bank loans.Most of these loans were not based on the income of the borrowers,but on the value of the security pledged,which had been artificially inflated.In addition to the loans to increse manufacturing capacity,loans on real estate and stock market speculation further leveraged the banks.Today,Japan has the manufacturing capacity,it also has a mountain of bad debts that will never be paid back.The ultimate price of this increase of manufacturing capacity will be the destruction of its financial system.Japanese banks now do not have the resources to repay their depositors,and it is the depositors who will ultimately lose.Depositors now have the mistaken belief that their government will not allow their banks to fail.As mentioned in Part 1,derect and inderect liabilities of the Japanese government now stand at 150% of GNP,making the government technically insolvent.They do not have the capacity to bail out the banks.When the Japanese realize that the government will be unable to bail out the banks and is itself insolvent,we have a major financial and currency crisis.The Japanese example has been followed by Korea,China,and most other country's in Asia,and all will ultimately see a similar fate.It is a system where lending was by government degree,not sound economics.
It is important to realize that the real wealth of a nation is in its productive capacity and a financial crisis does not change this.Some may even argue that the cost of a financial crisis is worth the increased manufacturing capacity,forgetting that increased capacity based on sound economics supports and does not harm a country's financial system.

The financial crises that will engulf Asia will wipe out most of this debt,whether it be corporate or soverign.The lossers will be the holders of the debt.The winners will be those who end up owning the manufacturing capacity,which they will own without debt.Millions of people will be ruined financially.The question that then arrises is what type of financial system will replace the one that has collapsed.Will it be based on the U.S. dollar,or on a system backed by gold,or by a new world wide currency backed by either gold or government decree.Will people be able to choose what they accept as currency,or will the law givers will that all transactions must take place through a currency that they define?

Since 1995,their has been a continuous flow of money out of Asia and into the United States as investors have looked for a safe haven.With concern about what the real value of the EURO will be,money has also flowed out of Europe into the United States.As the crises in Asia intensify's,money will continue to flow to the U.S. Gold has seen increased purchases,though by driving the price of gold lower through large gold loans,central banks have kept the bulk of the funds seeking a safe haven going into U.S. dollars.However,once Asia collapses totally,their will be a massive move out of U.S. dollars.Some money will move out to help pay for the massive losses in Asia,and other funds will be used to buy factorys now selling at a fraction of pre-crash prices.All of Asia will be on sale and money will rush in.Once the Euro is introduced in 1999,the European central bank will be sitting with hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars that will be surplus to its needs.Do they sell these putting additional downward pressure on the U.S. dollar?

These financial changes will have a major effect on corporate America.Now,decreasing import prices and reduced export sales to Asia,will substantially erode profitability.However,the major impact will likely occur after the financial crash.America will have to compete with corporate Asia having overbuilt manufacturing capacity,no debt,and a hungary work force.It is at this time that America,being the most indebted country in the world will be most vulnerable.It simply will not be able to compete.
To avoid this,the U.S. has two options open to it.It can attempt to purchase the manufacturing capacity in Asia to give it monopoly pricing,or it can spread its debts to the rest of the world by issuing a world reserve currency.

The problems in Asia can not be solved by any government policy.Only a deflationary recession wiping out the excessive debt can correct the imbalances.It does not matter if the debt is eliminated by default or by a massive increase in the money supply.The end result is the elimination of debt and the destruction of currency's.

World wide currency values are presently extremely unstable.Fluctuations will increase until most currencies in Asia are destroyed.Will commerce then take place in U.S. dollars,or a currency backed by gold?Possibly, the financial chaos in the world will be blamed on too many unstable currency's,the only solution being a common world wide currency.

Whoever issues money has many economic and political advantages.We are presently seeing a hidden battle between gold and the U.S. dollar.This battle will continue to intensify until the crash in Asia is complete.The key to financial independence is to know who will win this battle.

http://www.xe.net/currency/

TO Shek;
I got boooooeeeed when I first announced 270-280 back in late sept
early oct.Verify kito archives.Never say never.

Donald:

The close of the XAU today ended above Wednesday close. That's the good news.

But as I mentioned was it yesterday about Yauger's XAU/Cycle chart with its 38 weeks cycle, we still need to get the ending of the current cycle out of the way. And that looks like it will take us into the 1st or 2nd weeks of January, l998. So the declining support line I and others spoke of yesterday will "continue" to decline into that time period ( of Jan, l998 ) and also with it the "possibility" that the XAU will follow the support line down but "hopefully" will not break through the that support line. To me, it looks as though the support line, the price of the XAU index and the end of the 38 weeks cycle would have the potential of the XAU reaching a low of about 68-69 or so.

Also looking at Yauger's Cycle charts, sometimes the low for the 38 weeks cycle ends "right on the nose" and sometimes the low for the XAU can come 1 or 2 weeks early or late. So one has to look for that possibility also.

Your patterns that you spoke of in you last post could end up with a repeat this time also, but I still feel that we have to wait for the end of the 38 weeks cycle like we had to on the last 5-6 cycles.

Hope I am not "analysing" this into the groud. : )

For Royal Oak, RYO, check this out:

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ryo.html

Looks like a bargain but why, it had looked so promising...

goud= ground

Donald: Library is closing in a few minutes. I'll scroll back tomorrow for any commentary. Good nite.

Five year % performance comparison chart of xau, fsagx, fdpmx:

TO Allen ( USA re: 19:21 ) ;
You are a gentle man. I like your posts.
How's ma & pa doing with their GICs??

YESTERDAYS WORLD BREAKING NEWS form London, New York and other global money centers was thoroughly foreseen by Ted Butler nearly six months ago. It was announced Germanys Bundesbank admitted to a policy of LENDING BULLION TO GOLD PRODUCERS and JEWELRY INDUSTRY!!

Internationally recognized analyst Butler make an incisive and insightful review of the heretofore COVERT CENTRAL BANK ACTIVITIES OF GOLD LENDING. This report was first posted at GOLD-EAGLE in August of this year. And consequent to todays monumental revelation by the most conservative Central Bank in all Europe, we are obliged to repost Mr. Butlers study, which rings with logic and clarity in emphatically stating the GOLD LENDING PRACTICE RAMIFICATIONS BY CENTRAL BANKS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE YELLOW METAL TO SOAR IN VALUE.

When Central Banks awake from their stupor & stop giving away their GOLD for free, supply side of metal fundamentals will develop an immediate vacuum & Gold prices will SOAR:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler816.html

ElNino: your 19:22. Mikey has the right idea -- the ElNino is already here, so the cycle for the ElNino is mostly irrelevant -- just choose the relevant investment.
However, you may notice that its predicted effect on some countries like the USA, is unclear. In SE Asia, and S America, the effect is fairly well understood. If you are technically inclined, and wish to come up with your own ElNino model, you might learn alot about what to expect from the effects of past ElNinos on the US. This will be alot of work, but some of it can be done with virtually no math.
I'll tell you what I know, by analogy. There is a connection between the motions of the planets, and sunspot activity - or more importantly - the solar constant. During periods of high sunspot activity, the sun is actually warmer. Although I am a Physicist, I can't tell you why sunspot activity causes the sun to be warmer, but it does, and the temperature of the sun affects the earth's climate and hence human activity.
How do the planets affect the sun's sunspots? The answer is that the sun is a huge fluid ball of plasma, which acts in some ways just like a huge land-free ocean ( if you ignore the electomagnetic effects for the moment ) . Just like the sun and the moon can synchronize their gravitational pull on the earth, and cause variations in the tides of the earth, so can Jupiter, Saturn and the other dense planets affect solar tides. The solar tides in turn affect the sunspot cycles in a very complex manner that has been worked out, with relativistic corrections. The bottom line is that the average 22 year sunspot cycle is driven by the tidal effect of jupiter and saturn, and one other massive planet - neptune, or uranus, I think. None of the periods of these planets are exactly 22 years -- some are longer and some shorter, nevertheless a resonant cycle of about 22 years exists.
Why did I go into this lengthy explanation? Because the motion of the Sun, Moon, Jupiter and Saturn have multi-year tidal effects on the earth in a similar manner -- and may synchronize with the ELNino phenomenon - much more complicated math in the reference frame of the earth than the solar tide effects. I could not tell you the precise relationship because noone has worked out the math yet -- which planets, etc. Regardless a scenario like this is highly probable.
Now for the kicker -- once one understands the cyclic behavior of the El Ninos you may be able to predict what will happen in the US right now.
For example -- the great depression occurred about 60 years ago. Is there something in the ElNino or sunspot cycles that affects the weather and has a 60 year period? If so, what is happening is much more serious than anyone has imagined so far. To be honest I don't know if the dust bowl effect was ElNino related - but it could be. If you work this out, you will be famous!
One more point. If you have a $15 computer Ephemeris, you can plot the motions of the planets, say for the last 100 years, and if you know the ElNino cycles for this period, you may be able to predict future ElNinos --possibly without doing any mathematics at all! Further if you have detailed weather histories during this same time, you may be able to predict the kind of weather as well.
Hope this interests you. I hope to work some of this out, but I doubt I will have the time to do it very soon myself. Could be very important to the Human race to understand these cycles.

George S. Cole- THIS WAS VARY WELL SAID! THANKS.

Date: Fri Nov 14 1997 16:21

Let's face it. Virtually all who have played gold from the
long side these past 2 years have lost money. That includes me. But I long ago learned the folly of leverage, the virtues of diversification, and never let losses run. Consequently my setbacks have been modest. I expect to make this up many fold when the gold market does turn for real as I think it will quite soon.

Tally Ho

BREAKING NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA
( Donald - you will like these ones! )

Asia on the brink takes a step back
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/world/world3.html

Why Japan cant find its way
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/feature/feature1.html

Japanese Banks - the doomsday scenario
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/feature/feature2.html

Dark Clouds of over-valuation roll in from the US
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/market/markets2.html

Bet your suit, the business cycle is a fact of life
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/market/markets3.html

Rothschilds Money Market Mans outlook for fixed interest
( even he got burned on Gold shares - see article )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/smart/smart6.html

Peutz and GSC are we near a Low?
Thanks!

TO JTF;
Last post very good.Afraid to ask but here it comes.I heard
all planets will line up May 7 year 2000. Is this correct?

November 14, 1997
FOCUS-Royal Oak cuts costs as gold tumbles

TORONTO, Nov 14 ( Reuters ) - Slumping bullion battered North American gold miners on Friday, sending share prices to their lowest level in a year and forcing one producer to announce another round of deep cost cutting.
Royal Oak Mines Inc announced tough measures on Friday as the price of gold dipped below the key US$300 an ounce
level, depressing gold stocks worldwide.

With bullion prices hovering at 12-1/2 year lows, high-cost producers are under intense pressure to slash costs, delay or close unprofitable mines and revalue reserves.

Royal Oak, based in Kirkland, Washington, said on Friday it now plans to mine only those areas that are economic at a gold price below US$300 per ounce.

Royal Oak also plans company-wide job cuts, but no specific numbers were released. It employs slightly over 1000 workers.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/FOCUS-ROYAL-OAKRYOT.html

Cherokee: I would be forever grateful if you could find out where you saw that Ocean - rift model of the ElNino. Just as you said -- Solar, or wind effects could not explain the El Nino -- which is why I mentioned the rift effect about two weeks ago -- but that was my suspiction with no proof. Another mechanism would be tidal -- that certain tidal swings could disturb undersea currents -- which in turn cause upwelling of warm water. But -- the undersea rift model seems more convincing to me -- thanks -- in advance!

The European Union Commissioners have announced that an agreement has been reached to adopt English as the preferred language for European communications, rather than German, which was the other possibility.
As part of the negotiations, the British government conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has accepted a five-year phased plan for what will be known as EuroEnglish ( Euro, for short ) .
In the first year, "s" will be used instead of the soft "c". Sertainly, sivil servants will resieve this news with joy. Also, the hard "c" will be replaced with "k". Not only will this klear up konfusion, but typewriters kan have one less letter.
There will be some growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year, when the troublesome "ph" will be replaced by "f". This will make words like "fotograf" 20 persent shorter. In the third year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be expekted to reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible. Governments will enkorage the removal of double letters, which have always ben a deterent to akurate speling. Also, al wil agre that the horible mes of silent "e"s in the languag is disgrasful, and they would go.
By the fourth year, peopl wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing "th" by "z", and "w" by "v".
During ze fifz year, ze unesesary "o" kan be dropd from vords kontaining "ou", and similar changes vud, of kors, be aplid to ozer kombinations of leters.
After zis fifz yer, ve vil hav a reli sensibl riten styl. Zer vil be no mor trubls or difikultis and evrivun vil find it ezi tu understand ech ozer.
Ze drem vil vinali hav kum tru!

Go blow your brains out you cry-baby!!!!!!!!!

OK folks, I've tried to stay on the sidelines and keep my silence. Tried to maintain the discipline to ignore the incredibly imbecile speculations last week that I was posting as a certain "Karlito", but this "Gloomy Gus" business requires breaking my silence.

Firstly, and most obviously, "Gloomy Gus" is not me. Neither was "Karlito". If any of you Morons would like to dispute that fact, please be ready to put your balls and money where your fat MOUTHS are for a change. I'll be happy to wager $50,000, $100,000, a million, or any figure you want to name, that I made none of those posts of either gentleman, and no nothing of the origin of such posts. A nice 500K wager with 10% going to the webmaster to research the issue, and another 10% each to the real Karlito and Gloomy Gus ought to be plenty of incentive for verification by all don't you think?

I guess the assumptions and speculations of Kuston, Shek, Panda, DaveinCO, Intolerant, Sudsbuster, Eldorado, Nick, the "P"word analyst, et al about who is posting as who, is equally accurate to such posters analysis of the markets! Namely a ZERO hit rate.

I don't know if GloomyGus is sincere or not, but certainly his claims are consistent with what would happen to anyone who followed the idiotic "analysis" of YOU folks.

Now a personal note to that subhuman analyst, that lower than sea slime organism on the evolutionary chain, that country hating spoiled Yuppie brat "Word", let me just say two things. Re your Monday attacks on my "character" for my supposed posts as "Karlito", you are as wrong about that as you are wrong about your constantly bad market calls. If anyone on this forum could ever be responsible for adding to investor's misery index, it'd HAVE TO be you, my lunar predicting, constantly incorrect, snake oil selling, sensationalist mongering, phony. I'm not an expert in our monetary system? Damn right I'm not pal! And when a layman who is NOT an expert can outperform YOUR stupid perpetually wrong calls week after week, month after month, year after year, you ought to be embarrassed as the;

a ) Total incompetent you are . Or
b ) Total phony that you are.

Pword, I thought about you this week on Veteran's day. And I thought about your "No loyalty to my country" statement once again. And your inane rebuttal to my total disgust with you. Somehow you missed out on the founders link of personal freedom with personal responsibility didn't you? UmmHmm, bet you have NO IDEA what built this country, what sacrifices were made by our forefathers, what responsibilities we have to appreciate and improve on the gift we've been given instead of trashing it. Once I felt you were an interesting sparring partner re investments. Now I can only have utter and complete contempt for you.

I'm rescinding my commitment to stop posting on this site, because there just MIGHT be someone out there like Gus who needs a balanced view. And, quite frankly, I'll enjoy watching as the next DOW buy opportunity comes along, the "crash" fails to materialize, Gold continues to take it's horrible beating, and conspiracy Moron's continue to post their drivel. Don't expect all my new posts to have this tone, my good humor eludes me only over this "Gus" business and the usual cacophony of Moronic responses to it.

P.S. For all you Sherlock Geniuses, this post took me 9 minutes to type ( so far ) . I normally type in the 40 to 60 WPM range depending on mood. Not that I had anything but laughter for the "speculations" about the timing between my "final post" and previous one, whether it was done by outsiders, etc. Now as to the speculations on me being Gus, Karlito, et al, you have my challenge you ball less wonders, now PUT UP OR SHUT UP!

P.S.S. To the REST of Kitco, sorry for the outburst and tone, but I've held my tongue reading this nonsense by these Moron's for a week, and can hold my tongue no more. Kuston's comment about "Qaulity posts" does restore my good humor however. I guess "Quality posts" means "Wrong as usual but unchallenged by rational minds".

All together...na na na na, na na na na, goodbyeeeeee Royal Oak

Mikey, your post of 19:28 infers that, since you have rear buttocks, you also have buttocks in the front???;- )

November 14, 1997
Toronto stocks mixed as golds recover 2

TORONTO, Nov 14 ( Reuters ) - Toronto stocks ended mixed on Friday as battered gold shares recovered from an early selloff sparked by a further slump in bullion prices.

The Toronto Stock Exchange 300 Composite Index climbed 23.43 points to close at 6726.18 in turnover of 98.9 million shares worth C$1.52 billion.

But the overall market was mixed with declining stocks outpacing advances 624 to 402 and 292 issues flat.

Toronto opened in negative territory as the precious metals group sank to a 52-week low of 6337.89. Bullion dipped below the key US$300 per ounce level on Friday.

"It's bullish for the industry. A good part of the industry will have to shut down a lot of their production," said John Ing, president of Maison Placements Canada Inc.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TORONTO-STOCKS-MIXED.html

George C MOLE: I don't know if this is the final final low for gold or not. Who knows?
Three days ago, after I closed a GC7Z and made $530 richer in my measle trading account, I placed a GTC buy order for GC8G and buried my head in the sand too, because I am scared in this buttomless market.
Guess what? This afternoon, I found that I bought it at around the buttom price for the day! And it closed pretty good!
I am very new in the market, don't know what will come next? Wish your predictions are right for us!
I'll take a golden shower later! Thanks for you are my comforts.

I forgot Mooney. Also Pword, how are those out of the money Puts doin? Gold slaughtered again this week as the DOW crashes up 2 days in a row, consistent with your full Moon theory as always eh? I see my recommendation on Silver is doing wekk however....When you Pword followers and apologists gonna learn? Talk about Lemmings! Monolithic minded..ahh well.... there are SOME quality posters on Kitco. Hey Hepcat, where's the voice on intellect tonight? We need more balance

WW: You are asking those TWO clowns for predictions---look ar their damn track record,will ya! Puetz calls for market crashes on FULL MOONS and GSC waffles all over the place---are YOU crazy too??

November 14, 1997
Republicans say Clinton will get fast track in '98

SANTIAGO, Nov 14 ( Reuters ) - A group of Republican senators visiting Chile on Friday said the U.S. Congress would grant President Bill Clinton "fast track""trade negotiating authority next year.

Senators Phil Gramm and Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas and Connie Mack of Florida told reporters at Chile's Foreign Ministry that Congress could pass such legislation during the first half of 1998.

Clinton, a Democrat, and the Republican leadership in Congress failed to sway enough members of the House of Representatives to approve a "fast track""bill last weekend.

"We had around 75 or 80 votes in favor of fast track in the Senate, but ( the bill ) didn't get past the House, so we think we'll take up the issue again in the spring, hopefully with success," Gramm said.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/REPUBLICANS-SAY-CLINT.html

LGB,
That was beautiful! Lot of emotions.
And finally you are back!
What do you see gold do next week?
BTW, I see lot of posters get upset with your comeback.

It could hardly be better stated !

WELCOME BACK!!! A voice of sanity among a bunch of nut cases.

LGB,
I put my self in the same category as tolerant1 - Constitutional poster.
You the same right to express your views as everyone else.

1

Could vronsky stop promoting his web site here. It's getting really boring.

Great ships even though they be so huge still are turned by the flip of a wheel...Even so the tongue is a little member, and boasts great things. How great a matter a little fire kindles, and the tongue is a fire....."
LGB, I do not type as fast, but perhaps that is a good thing. I fail to see how these continual attacks on person, by you or those who spar with you, contribute in anyway to our understanding, other than it is understood we have a lot of thin skins and thicker heads here.

Bookmark this site!
http://www.brw.com.au/aap/

Gold went into hibernation, no movement ( except down just a little more )
till spring.
My advice: Start buying the physical, gold mining shares,Pm funds,
when gold hits 290.
Now I don't want to hear anymore about this gold rally that's just
around the corner. It's not going to happen no matter how much
wishfull thinking is out there.
NOW DO YOU ALL UNDERSTAND?
AM I BEING CLEAR ENOUGH?
THIS IS THE WAY IT IS, AND THE WAY IT'S GOING TO BE.

No.

Re-Vronsky: I agree with you 100%---I think he's actually a recorded message and the machine is broken. bla bla bla

I am a Polygon subscriber and there is this one guy who always has temper tantrums like yours and vows to never post again like we will miss him. Then he misses us when he realizes that there is plenty of good dialogue without him and no one seems to miss his sometimes beneficial posts.

I can tell you that most people think he has a chemical imbalance LGB. If you want to stay or leave then so be it but don't always feel the need to attack those who you see as snake oil salesman. You are not our protector. People can listen to all sides and make up their own minds without your fatherly guidance.

Personally I hope the markets crash and I make alot of money holding gold. That is not pessimistic or negative thinking. For every winner there is a loser. Those making money in equities hope I lose money in gold because that keeps money in their inflationary stock values.

Relative wealth is a zero sum game. Everyone cannot be rich. There will always be the upper, middle, and lower classes. Any other thinking is not democratic capitalism.

Steve

Of course the FOMC never did raise the federal funds rate. Their next move will be down.

Looks like Japan has no choice but to sell gold and buy U.S. Teasuries, U.S. stocks, and possibly soybean oil.

BBW and Searle had it right. So sad that so few listened.

288000: Do you have any idea what a "golden shower" is? I'll bet not.
288000: Do you have any idea what sarcasm is? Wise up, shmegeggie!

Mikey -- I don't know about the year 2000 bit - but I do have an ephemeris. There is what is called the "Eclipse of the Century" on Aug 11, 1999. This is desribed by Astrologer E. Alan Meece. Jupiter and Saturn are in conjuction, but there are other items that Mike Sheller would know better than I.
However, the point I was making with the sunspot cycle and the link with the planets is that the solar high tides do not necessarily peak when Jupiter and Saturn are inline ( conjuction as the Astrologers say ) . Likewise for the positions of the planets and the ElNino. What would be very important however, would be to go back in history with the emphemeris, and determine whether the biggest ElNinos always correlate with specific positions of certain massive planets relative to the Earth.
Also - the model that I am decribing is a simple gravitational model - not Astrological. The Astrological phenomena appear not to be exclusively gravitational, and little quantitative information is available.

Here is an interesting article at Yahoo, that suggests that the tide may turn for gold. It suggests that short positions are oversold.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/971112/ny_bundesbank_gold_1.html

ron,
What are you talking about? What did Searle say that no one listned to?

Jupiter: Thanks for the Veneroso post. It's to know we have a tide turner in our midst. The only one I know who would carry more weight than you would be the Sun, and we haven't seen him/her post yet. But -- Kitco has marvelously diverse posters -- you never know!

Buzz off

LGB: Good evening you little masochist you. For one my dear clown I have never once accused anyone of being you, other than you. ( 1 ) I find that to be accusatory enough. Laughingly Good Boaster is all I need think as I sit comfortably on my Castaneda, Tequila drenched ,carpeted spot.

Since you always provide your own evidence without fail, at least you are reliable in that regard, I won't reiterate your follies so as to be backwardly redundant. As to a factual display of that which has transpired, you are lacking in two immediate and very specific categories. The first is addressed in my second sentence, paragraph 1, noted above.

The second is my "prediction" which if you attack the word itself, should mean something akin to grunting and the like, as that would truly be pre-diction. That not with standing, as I have none in the community I dwell in being a ponderous soul, but not like the one sewn to your shoe.

Anyway, what I stated, but have, as of yet not marked with geographical boundaries is as follows.

Gold $400.00 by mid December or sooner.

Dow 5000 by mid December or sooner.

Since that has of yet not occurred, I shall speak further with you at that time. The 15th, December 1997 year of our Laughingly Good Boaster.

Have a nice life until then, and stop bruising your own back, there are laws against that, the paradigm is not the only new thing in the nineties.

Way to go, Mr. V! I salute you! Nice answer to Paco. They say brevity is the soul of wit, and you are certainly concise! Your cogency and clarity are commendable, and your site is a cornucopia of creative cogitation!

That's right. You are dreamin' sucker if you think you can take me. I'm stuffin' you're sh&t tonight!! And don't get Charlie in my way either. I'll crush his skull like a ripe tomato chew him up and spit him out. Let's rock and roll!!

go gold.........................

How bout that shot at the end of the quarter!! Down to NINE! Bring it on dude&&&&&&

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Any comments? Sell your market puts? I threw in the towel, took some profits with my XAU/SPX put option "funny money" and will wait for the next market cycle peak to jump back in. Donald's posts are still hot and heavy, I have one eye on Saddam Hussein, and one eye on the Whitewater stuff. There is clearly a long-term cyclical change that could adversely affect the markets in the future -- the SE Asis situation is now only part of the story.

Repeat after me. I am NOW less than perfect. I made a call that did NOT come to pass. Although I am now inadequate I can not leave kitco alone. I must continue to show everyone my expertise. I must not deprive anyone from me. I am the LGB. Less than 100%

TWO point game!!

THE GREAT MANDALA ( The Wheel Of Life )
Words and music by Peter Yarrow, Mary Travers and Albert Grossman
Lead Vocals: Peter Yarrow and Richie Havens

So I told him that he'd better
Shut his mouth and do his job like a man.
And he answered, "Listen father,
I will never kill another."
He thinks he's better than his brother that died.
What the hell does he think he's doing
To his father who brought him up right?

chorus:

Take your place on the great Mandala
As it moves through your brief moment of time
Win or lose now, you must choose now
And if you lose, you're only losing your life

Tell the jailer not to bother
With his meal of bread and water today.
He is fasting 'til the killing's over.
He's a martyr, he thinks he's a prophet
But he's a coward, he's just playing a game.
He can't do it, he can't change it,
It's been going on for ten thousand years.

( chorus )

What's the rumbling in the courtyard?
Seven thousand faces are turned to the gate.
What's that they're saying?
"Kill the traitor"
Kill the traitor
Kill the traitor
La la la la la la...."

( chorus )

Tell the people they are safe now.
Hunger stopped him, he lies still in his cell.
Death has gagged his accusations.

We are free now, we can kill now
We can hate now, now we can end the world.
We're not guilty, he was crazy,
And it's been going on for ten thousand years.

Take your place on the great Mandala
As it moves through your brief moment of time
Win or lose now, you must choose now
And if you lose, you've only wasted your life...
And if you lose, you're only losing your life...

Copyright 1967 Pepamar Music, ASCAP
Renewed 1995 Silver Dawn Music, ASCAP

TOLERANT1 I 100% agree with you. If you saw my post last night and the night before I said that the xau would hold above its long term lower trendline of 75 and it did. I also posted that gold would be at least $400 in 60 days. I gave myself some time because I believe that India may wait till 98 when their new laws liberalizing and lowering the tarrif on gold purchases by citizens becomes effective. I do however believe that december will be one great month.

I see no reason why the low today will hold next week. I also beleave that the '85 low at $285 will be broken. At this point in time the only ray of hope I can give you is that on monday they start trading the Dec99 Gold calls on COMEX. When gold breaks $270 I plan on buying alot of them and I will NOT sell them until gold is well above $400. If gold is not above $400 by that time I am throwing in the towel for good on gold. Personnally I really do believe that Gold will break $270 in '98 and then break $400 before '99 is over.

400$ gold by mid-dec. ( HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA ) a trip to Betty Ford's clinic might be in order!! HAHAHA Dow 5,000--you kill me man!

I'm gettin' pissed. Don't make me jam you up. I'll bring on showtime. You BUM!

All: Please - please -please? The last two days on Kitco have been the most civil I can recall -- with minimal insults. Healthy dissention is welcome -- but no attacks on others -- PLEASE.
I know what will happen after I sign off tonight because alot of people who got burned today will want to let off steam, but I can always hope for mature discussion, can't I?
-- Why not work it out in the GYM -- and not on your fellow Kitcoite? Any Mountains to climb nearby?

Glenn,
I like your thinking.

glenn: the only positives for ny gold and xau are the setups yesterday and today for *could be* price/volume spike reversals.

Gold at 400 and Dow at 5,000 by MID-DECEMBER or EARLIER ( REMEMBER THAT FOLKS ) as another ktcoite makes a FOOL of himself!! Tolerant1 ( what kind of drugs are you on??? ) ---e-mail me some of em!

glenn: don't forget sentiment either. at kitco and generally.

For a list of the Group of 30 publications try www.Group30.com

In yo face mo-fo^^^^^^^^^^

JTF: There you go again pal, this common sense stuff from you has got to stop. Now you throw decency into the fray. Well. You know what pal, you are right again. Well said.

You need to go back to the summer of '96 for Searle's wise counsel. He has long left Kitco and is resting wealthy in wisdom in S.A.

You need to go back to the summer of '96 for Searle's wise counsel. He has long left Kitco and is resting wealthy in wisdom in S.A.

Vronsky: Your "no" is the model of decorum. I do not know of a shorter answer you could give than that - and it cannot be construed as being insulting!
I for one find your posts very useful and informative. If anything, we should discourage posts from anyone who consistently fails to contribute constructive information.

ron,
What did he say?

In case you missed them...


BREAKING NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

Asia on the brink takes a step back
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/world/world3.html

Why Japan cant find its way
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/feature/feature1.html

Japanese Banks - the doomsday scenario
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/feature/feature2.html

Dark Clouds of over-valuation roll in from the US
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/market/markets2.html

Bet your suit, the business cycle is a fact of life
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/market/markets3.html

Rothschilds Money Market Mans outlook for fixed interest
( even he got burned on Gold shares - see article )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/smart/smart6.html

This is addressed to ANOTHER. Would appreciate an explanation of why mining companies that have not hedged or sold forward will be hit hard. Do not producing, unhedged companies have the equivalent of physical metal possession? What about silver stocks? If anyone else wants to comment, please go ahead.

Thank you LGB for a breath of fresh air and reason

Soro's through with Asia? Or just wishful thinking by Philipines
Central Bank? http://headlines.yahoo.com/abc/stories/879499528.html

Aurator: Why do you always turn up when I am about to retire? Did you respond to my comments on Thursday about when you were posting at the same time from Friday?
I was wondering if you had the Full Moon Friday over New Zealand way when I didn't, even though I was posting at almost exactly the same time from Thursday!
Sounds like a temporal dyssychrony to me.
Think we have to call in the --- Time Cops --- to fix a temporal rift?

Hope you are fully moved in.
Have been waiting for Nick ( @Aussie ) to show up -- but I think he is getting some ZZZZ's.
So will I very, very soon!

Steve: Thanks for the links. Good stuff.

Sorry Shek - i have to leave now for concert tonight. Will fill in for my short comments later.

Steve - Perth: Thanks for your informative posts from down under, where the posters behave themselves. We ( mostly American ) posters do not behave anyway nearly as well.
Re: the AFR post - Your AFR review magazine is clearly one of the best internet financical magazines in the world!

US jobs "dropping off like flies", but the Stats don't add up!
http://nypostonline.com/business/785.htm

Yeah right,gold will rise 100 bucks and the Dow will fall 2,500 and all within a month. har har har

All the disrupters have returned with phazers on full disruption. This PROVES the lunar effect. Well, I appreciated the few days we had without it. Good Night and sleep tight.

Indeed JohnK, using your criteria the US has a bedrock foundation for sound money. You mentioned three criteria

In the United States,sound money is based on;
---a government that is over 5 trillion dollars in debt.
---a stock market that trades at 5 times book value
---a consumer that is so over indebted that personal bankrucy's are at record levels at the height of a long economic
expansion

Yes 5 trillion in debt souds like a lot BUT the US has the lowest debt to GDP ratio of any developed country and thanks to Clinton, the US economy is growing much faster than the level of debt. The nations ability to manage its debt today is much better than it was under either Bush or Reagan. Certainly problems with funding Social Security exist, but the US is better poisitioned to deal with these problems than any other developed country in the world.

Stock Values at 5x Book Values
As a partner in a Big 6 ( soon to be Big 4 ) accounting firm, I think I can speak with authority on this issue. Dont let book value fool you. It grossly understates the real value of just about any company. The real assets today are NOT bricks and motar, they are information, knowledge and innovation. Try as you will you won't find book entries for any of them on any balance sheet anywhere. Book value becomes less and less meaningful as a measure of anything as value in the global economy becomes more and more based on information and knowledge.

Consumer Indebtedness and Bankruptcy

Again, you need to look at the detail to understand the big picture here.
Personal bankruptcy peaked in the second quarter of this year and is headed down. Bankruptcy occurs generally as a result of divorce or the failure of a small business. The high rate of personal bankruptcy is a reflection of the high rate of new business formation. Create more new businesses and you will get more bankruptcy because more of them will fail. Bankruptcy is not a measure of economic failure but of the growing level of economic entrepreneurship....

Consumer debt levels are a concern but the growing level of debt has been more than offset by much greater increases in consumer wealth. The stock market alone has added $6 trillion to consumer wealth in the past three years. Also, the rise in debt reflects a one time shift to the use of plastic as a means of making transactions for everything from gas to groceries and does not necessarily reflect a growth in debt.

So given your criteria for sound money, the conclusion you should come to is that the US is standing on veryt solid bedrock

To: aurophile Re - glenn: don't forget sentiment either. at kitco and generally. ///

PLEASE I take EVERYTHING into consideration!! Maket Vane's weekly sentiment reading this week was 36. That's 36% bullish. The week before was 33%. Traders were getting bullish around mid week and look what happened today. right before the spike at the end of Sept the sentiment reading hit a low of 21% bullish. We still have a ways to go on the down side. Don't kind yourselves.

Silver stocks should do great, for one thing central banks dont horde it and cant flood it onto the market like gold.
More thoughts: Yesterday at the congressional hearing with Alan Greenspan and Lawrence Summers. 1. Congressman Bernie Sanders ( I ) Vermont, asked Lawrence Summers ( deputy tresury secretary ) Why should the U.S. pony up a extra $3billion to the IMF to help bail out Indonesia when Suharto is worth $16 billion himself. NO ANSWER. Summers did say that the loan was gaurenteed by the IMF because they had a large gold reserve. Now figure if you were a central bank especially the IMF, imagine how easy it would be to bail out all your problem countries if your large stash of gold was worth $1200 or $2000 instead of $300. It only makes sense that they can become very powerful if this were to happen. In the mean time blitz a program to get gold cheap and accumulate it on the sly. Watch and see, and get a little for yourself.

@Paco & Lurkerxxx: It never ceases to amaze at Kitco that those that contribute the least - or in the case of Paco & Lurkerxxx NOT AT ALL - are the same who find fault with those WHO DO CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHERING THE KNOWLEDGE OF THE GROUP.

Karlito: So what you are saying is the operation was a success but the patient died.

Right now the US dollar is the king of all the worlds monopoly money. All the countries are trying to depreciate their currencies in order to stimulate their exports. In the mean time the good old US of suckers has gigantic record trade deficits, ( the wealth of a nation leaving its shores ) .To understand this better as far as the currency goes, please please go to the library and get Ann Rands book on capitalism ( copyright 1966 ) and read chapter 6 by a much younger more innocent ALAN GREENSPAN
called GOLD AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM. It is so simple, here's the last paragraph. "This is the shabby secret of the welfare statist' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."

I give you an F

Comex gold and silver warehouse stocks - OH OH!!! SOMETHING IS WRONG!

ADVISORY: COMEX GOLD, SILVER STOCK LEVELS RE-ADJUSTED

Futures World News - November 14, 1997 17:07
METAL GENERAL V%FWN P%FWN

New York-Nov. 14-FWN--THE COMEX DIVISION OF NYMEX TODAY reported that Swiss Bank Corp., who will cease to act as a Licensed Depoistory for the storage of gold and silver deliverable against COMEX's gold and silver futures contracts on Nov. 21, 1997, has informed the exchange that Swiss Bank has been incorrectly reporting the amount of gold and silver eligible for delivery against the respective contracts.

Due to an error in reporting stocks, the Metal Warehouse Statistics from the close of business on Nov. 13 incorrectly showed a total of 3,811,872 troy ounces of silver and 75,284 troy ounces of gold at Swiss Bank Corp. The actual total was 335,203 troy ounces of silver and 43,696 troy ounces of gold.

Today's inventory report, dated Nov. 14, 1997, correctly reflects the transfer of all Swiss Bank Corp. gold and silver inventories to Republic National Bank.

The action in the markets today make me believe a short squeeze may be in place for the rest of the month. Gold stocks at Comex warehouses were reduced by 32,392 oz leaving 534,922 oz. This is lowest in 17 years! The December open interest is 100,000+ or 10 million oz. Spec's pushed the gold down to shake out the longs inorder to cover however we closed mid range. I think a test of $300/oz will be made on monday and will hold leaving 9 trading days to first notice for December delivery. To liquidate 10000 open interest positions per day will be exciting.

Holly shnikes Arden!
Where did you get that info from ( URL?

Karlito

I think you may be oversimplifying things too much!

In the area in which i live, the people that are defaulting are not the small buss. but joe public. Today its not how much does it cost its how much a month. I personally know of 3 people that filed chptr.13 and before they did they were instructed by their lawyers to charge everything to the hilt. Most of the fellow bussiness owners that i know live within a budget that figures operating 12 months with 9 months of income.
The figures that you state is with an economy that is not of the norm. With ASIA collasping and europe slowing. Where will the trade come from to support our economy.
I think you believe most of what the mainstream press is feeding the public, like there is very little inflation.
Parts and products that i purchase on a daily bases are steadily going up ( much more than the 3% were hearing about. ) This is at retail and at wholesale levels. Have you bought a candy bar lately or a pack of gum.
These items may seem trivial to but they display truth about inflation.
i think that there is no way that the U.S. economy could survive any world wide slow down because it is an economy that is operating on volume . once the volume slow ( volume e.i. bond, bills, notes ) rate raise, rates raise dept skyrockets, whether figure you want to use is 5 trillion ,12 trillion, 18 trillion ( it depends who you talk to )

Hey Lurker007, and Karlito, thanks for the welcome back! I've had my dinner and in a better mood now. Roebear, I read your posts and understand it's meaning, however, before I am held to harshly to task for having a venomous tongue, so remember that when I first arrived here as an inquiring mind, I was viciously attacked by many Kitcoites, just for having the temerity to disagree with conventional "Goldbugism". Henceforth I went on the offensive ( literally and figureatively ha! ) , and decided to fight fire with fire.

Besides, watch any good debate show at any time and you'll see far more bloody dialogue than what I deliver.

Only "Pword" analyst shall take the full brunt of my wrath, him having uttered his "No loyalty to country" statement, showing him for the true, Yuppie, spoiled, characterless, souless, WORTHLESS sea slime that he is. Maybe I'll remain on this site just to glory in his weekly bad market calls, which I see are still going on as usual!! A monkey trowing darts at a DOW board could do better than Pword.

however, enough about snake oil selling. I'm off that subject and will take your advice, reverting back to having humorous fun here ( and making reasonable market calls ) .

Remember, I have told you guys week after week to buy silver have I not? What investment has outperformed all others in the past week? Hmmm?

After closely watching this website for over 6 months time, I find that most are too deep in doom and despair to find the true bottom.
This and maybe true 10 points under is the real bottom, and I am
throwing the real charts out the window.



This window of money in gold stocks will not come along in the next
20 years or so. I am betting the ranch on it, and I have seldom been
wrong in the past above window.
I do not discrminate over all charts on the planet. GOLD is about to
move to the upside in the next 2-3 months to a extreme degree.
There are people behind this move that you will never see.
While you are waiting at the bottom of the pit, millions of dollars
will be made that you will never see !!!!!!!!

Arden
Could you - would you, please?
Re-iterate the info, that you just posted in Arden-speak.
Just so I can get your perspective.

Dr. Irving Fisher@Karlito ( @JohnK's Sound Money )

Karlito: I was the most acclaimed economist in the entire US in the 1920s. I was a Ph.D. in Economics and a Professor at Harvard. Bankers and politicians sought my sage counsel.

It seems to me most of your critique of JohnKs treatise might have been taken verbatim from my rationalizations for the economic and financial excesses perpetrated just before the 1929 CRASH. Almost paragraph by paragraph you echo my thoughts and delusions of that exciting period.

Then in August and September of that fatal year institutions began crumbling around my rationalizations. And on October 16, 1929 I uttered my infamous comment: Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.

You can quite imagine how I grimaced upon reading all the same old rationalizations on why we are in a New Era, where economic cycles are abolished, and old methods of conservative valuation are no longer valid... it really saddens me. And your last comment really smacks of the 1929 illusion of a delusion:

So given your criteria for sound money, the conclusion you should come to is that the US is standing on very solid bedrock.

Perhaps bedrock, but 2,000 feet under water...

your wife's name wouldn't be Ruth would it?

ABRAHAM GINSBERG,
Tell me more.

Karlito:
First Clinton was the only president to use the bond market for political reasons, in his first term he had the tresury reissue expiring long term debt back out as 2 and 5 year notes. Thus lowering the percentage rate that had to be paid, thus lowering the deficit, thus getting re-elected. Now the chickens are coming home to roast with a overly large supply of refinancing coming up in the next year or two. The shakey world currency and equity situation is playing right into his hand temporarilly soaking up tresuries as a safe haven. This however will backfire when other countries are forced inspite of political pressure from the U.S. to cash in to get liquidity. Greenspan is reluctant to lower rates even though real rates are high and dis-inflationary pressures abound. He could use a quickly rising gold price to be his big inflation indicator, also military conflict and higher oil prices. As far as debt goes, its closer to 6 trillion, and if you count the IOU's in the social security safe and the unfunded pension funds etc. you could be at 20 trillion.
I asked Bill Siedman on a call in on CNBC " How can we pay all this debt without super inflation, in order to pay back in cheaper dollars" and he said "You Cant, you can only try to lower the deficit and hope interest rates dont go up. Good night all!

Hey Tol, you wouldn't want to make a wager on that prediction of Gold/DOW in December would you? I'll give you 5 to 1 odds, my $2,000 to your $400 thta it doesn't come to pass. That's better than you'll get elsewhere and no one even takes a house cut. What do you say pal? Hmmmm?? money to be advanced to a neutral observer in advance of course. I can think of one we'd both trust.

Did anyone on Kitco already post today's WSJ article on Silver's spectacular rise and the reasons why ?? ( Now that someone woke up and took notice outside the metals market channels ) If not, I'll hunt it down and post it.

LGB,
Whatever happened with your last bet?

CDB INFOTEK can post your email, family history, child support payments,
and everything we need to know about you, IRS, ETC: YOU ARE PLAYING WITH SERIOUS PEOPLE AT THIS POINT !!! WE CAN RING YOUR CHIMES !!!TRY US !!!

What happened with my last bet was that "Pword" backed out in cowardly fashion...which is a good thing for his since the 31st of October would have been pay up day for his failed carsh predictions. ( That was the date that would be the LATEST possible time for his crash scenario to have ocurred..Of course I see that we missed the Eclispe crash, the full Moon crash, the few days after Full moon crash, the Halloween crash, the few days after Halloween crash, and the latest Full Moon crash.... but as always, Pword says that we're "right on track" for his predictions )

LGB: Yup I posted the WSJ silver article.....It is snowing and I'm tired so I guess it's time to hit the sack....g'nite!!

Meanwhile, Israel -- which refrained from retaliating against Iraq
for Scud missile attacks during the Gulf War -- warned Friday that
it will respond militarily to any new Iraqi aggression.

Ahh that's what I love about this site. Always a fascist to step up to the plate and make threats when they don't like someone else's dialogue. Tell you what "back door", there's a large battery of attorney's who would be MORE THAN HAPPY, to see you violate someone else's constitutional rights so that they could impoverish you immediatley. So be my guest pal!

Meanwhile, I intend to post a LOT of commentary on Gold, Silver, Platinum, the markets, and the ANALysts who continue to plauge the average investor with snake oil analysis. Guess what CDB, much as you wish it were NAZI Germany here, or maybe IRAQ, we still live in a country of free speech. Sure it's a country that SOME people like "Pword" are clueless to appreciate, but MANY of us will fight for, live for, and die for the darn place, and fascists like you will get BURIED in the process.

Cuba Si! Yanqui Non! Silver Yes! Gold Non!

For a bullish outlook on the coming gold up spike see Jon Kaplan's
site at http://www.geocities.com/wallstreet/4915/index.html
He quotes a fellow named Mr. Veneroso.
Fresh air?

LGB: I see you broke your promise never to come back to Kitco. You're what everyone here at Kitco always knew you were -- a liar!!

RACIST, AMONG MANY OTHER THINGS. YOUR SURPRISE WILL SOON BE IN OVERNITE
EXPRESS MAIL.
WRONG PEOPLE TO MESS WITH!!!!!

This is the ONE situation brewing today that could possibly lead to a strong move in Gold. If it escalates into a Middle East war, oil supplies could be disrupted, Arabs could get up in arms, any Israeli agression would rally the hardcore Islamic supporters worldwide. Russia has interests in IRAQ, as does CHina. Gloom&Doomers, forget the manipulation theory nonsense, THIS is what could drive up Gold. Wish for it to happen you Putz's!! As for me, I hope it's solved diplomatically so we can go back to calmness, see the Asian crises die down, and resume the BEST BULL MARKET IN HISTORY, in the DOW. Economic fundamentals continue to be incredibly strong.

Not a liar my U.S. of A. country hating friend, but a poster who has had enough of ridiculous conjectures about my being "Gus" and "Karlito" by the likes of you. I'll match my integrity to your any day of the week month or year. Even the full Moon. Besides, I'd be mighty embarrassed to call someone else a liar, with your record pal. At least I make some EFFORT to post factual information here instead of wildly speculative snake oil nonsense. And what kind of professional analyst has to ask fellow Kitcoites where to find a site that has market volume?

Don't mess with my good mood Pword, my nasty disposition can only last so long before the humor of this site takes over and brings out my better side. Now go out and look at the Full Moon and ask yourself how many more false calls for a crash you can pull off before people get wise to the scam and stop buying the newsletters, eh?

Looking bad for Treasury Dept. See the newest scandal brewing. Of interest here is the last sentence refering to Rubin. http://www.spectator.org/ret/97-11-14.html Any comments?

Atta boy LGB,put CDB in his place along with many of the other loonies at this site. Gee tonight is the FULL MOON and where is Mr. Puetz? Did you catch Tolerant1's post where he said "gold at 400 and Dow at 5,000 on or before December 15th"---is this rational thinking or some kind of warped pipe dream ( We know that answer!!! ) America is a great country and will continue to be, so sorry to all of you that constantly hope for DISASTER--and THEY call that living! BBML

LGB: I might add. You are gutless. When the markets were going against you, you used different handles, other than LGB.

For a bullish outlook on gold try Jon Kaplan's site at
http://www.geocities.com/wallstreet/4915/index.html

Here is the URL for Arden's revelation on the slight error ( 10x less silver, about 1/2 as much gold as we thought ) made by the Swiss National Bank. They will do that no mo', they say. See http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/get32.exe