Anybody know anything about this?

Friday November 14, 6:48 pm Eastern Time

US banks decline comment on Russia contract issue

NEW YORK, Nov 14 ( Reuters ) - The New York offices of U.S. banks declined comment on Friday regarding Russia's accusation that they had
failed to fulfill contracts with Russian banks.

Russia's central bank on Friday said that 11 Western banks had failed to deliver securities to Russian banks in accordance with contracts struck in
late October or early November.

Among the 11 banks were European affiliates of Bank of New York Co Inc ( NYSE:BK - news ) , Chase Manhattan Corp ( NYSE:CMB - news ) ,
Salomon Inc ( NYSE:CXB - news; NYSE:SB - news ) and J.P. Morgan & Co Inc ( NYSE:JPM - news )

This set of comments seems too well thought out to waste:

The price of gold is headed below the cost of production for many MANY
producers. It is not being dictated by supply/demand which is as great as it has ever been.

POG is being dictated by the Master Plan for getting the 1942 Bretton Woods Currency Accord implemented, which calls for a second reserve currency which they then labelled European Monetary Unit or "EMU"... that is until someone in the 90s pointed out an EMU was t'name of a rather rare but tasty large bird )


Most of us goldbugs are currently unequivocal about 5 things:

1 ) Price of Au production in So. Africa is above $308 T/oz even with hedging programs...


2 ) The normal 9yr gold cycle has been interrupted. It has been a sell all rallies market for 15 years now.


3 ) The normal annual "buy the 'demand months' of Sept-Nov" hasn't occurred for 2 yrs in a row now...further proof of manipulation.


4 ) The role of gold in Central Bank reserves is still the ultimate measure by which a nation's creditworthiness is STILLLLLL measured.
( Just look at what the IMF requires member nations to fork over as a price of admission inorder to insure their international lender of last resort status: yep, GOLD! )


5 ) The Bretton Woods Act Timetable is just 14 months away from full implementation of the EMU.

Please visit my website if you haven't gotten there yet, and review the
EMU/Bretton Woods Time Line chart as published in Business Week over 1 year ago.

http://www.worldaccessnet.com/~goldbug/
http://www.worldaccessnet.com/~goldbug/euro$.gif

Speaking of a gold sell-off, Robert Prechter, who is a reeeeeal researcher at heart, was the first one to pound the table back at $450-480 gold that we'd see $265 T/oz before we'd see $500 Au again.

It is my conviction that we will quite possibly see $195 gold before all is said and done, frankly.

Why? Two reasons: Pendulum swings are as customarily overdone on the low
side as the swing was on the high side...ala $810 T/oz gold back when.
And, 2 ) the 5-8 year gold forward contracting at mucho higher prices most big producers implemented was done to get them past this EMU introduction phase until the global foot came off the brake of gold prices!

You know something, it's funny, but Peter Munk ( ABX CEO ) in an CNBC interview just a couple weeks ago talked about the impact of the introduction of the EMU as being the single most overriding factor in the pricing of gold currently. And he further stated that most folks didn't understand this.


Now if the CEO of the world's Largest Gold Mining Company sez this....
well, it's nice to know he thinks what I've noodled out all by mahselfen! ( grin )

Just for a minute, say you still have an open mind at the moment:

The bottom line is this:

Gold HAS BEEN AND STILL IS the reserve "currency of Choice."

US $ has been officially tagged as t'"new reserve currency" of choice, meaning that owning the US dollar is as good as gold. Why? Mainly because of WIDE DISTRIBUTION of both!!!..yellow gold is widely distributed a/w/a green pictures of our dead presidents.


For there to be a "successful" introduction/57+ year timeline for the EMU ( aka Bretton Woods Currency Act of 1942 ) then 2 things must happen to make the EMU instantly appear as strong ( read above as "brilliant idea by original BWCA committee" )

Gold Price has to be weakened by manipulating the perception of above
ground supply ( aka the "selling pressure-Gold" of Central Banks"--to other central banks of course but the media doesn't tell us that!! )
and....

the CONCURRENT of the US Dollar.

When...

these two weakenings is pronounced "Mission Accomplished" ( and the major
deval of the US$ is weeeelllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll underway ) and another deval chunk lies ahead of us, folks!...

then...

Gold=US$=EU

One thing I'd like to remind you of in closing:

The World Bank Head Honcho is none other than Paul Volker...the gent who
oversaw/engineered the biggest-inflation-US$-spiral-in-our- Gold=US$-in-Carter-Administration-as-the-head-of-our-Federal-Reserve-
Central-Bank history! ( Some say it started w/Pre-Volker Miller )

Volker didn't leave the Fed Reserve Post as a failure...he was kicked upstairs and the world renowned goldbug, Alan Greenspan, was installed here as Volcker went to Europe to implement the next phase of Bretton Woods Currency Act of 1942.


Now, you want a peek into the future? Comtemplate that last paragraph and
then throw this into the grist mill:

The Bretton Woods Currency Act of 1942 was designed to do 2 things:

Restore European Financial Stability after WWII

AS WELL AS

Japan's Financial Stability after WWII.

There is a sequel to the EMU...it has not been named yet, but it IS labelled in the Bretton Woods Currency Act Accord of 1942...

Yes, ladies and gentlemen:

We will go through this again after the launch of the EU in Jan 1 1999
and it will be an Asian Monetary Unit-AMU.

So, what should one be collecting in this

Gold=US$=EMU=AMU period?


GOLD!

ALL THE REST IS JUST ( TOILET ) PAPER!

After careful analysis of several market indicators, it does indeed appear that a Gold Bull market to at least $1200/Oz. and a DOW crash down to somewhere around 2200 is in the cards in the next few weeks and... "what, what is this again?" "Who's newsletter??" Ohhhh

NEVER MIND!

This set of comments seems too well thought out to waste:

The price of gold is headed below the cost of production for many MANY
producers. It is not being dictated by supply/demand which is as great as it has ever been.

POG is being dictated by the Master Plan for getting the 1942 Bretton Woods Currency Accord implemented, which calls for a second reserve currency which they then labelled European Monetary Unit or "EMU"... that is until someone in the 90s pointed out an EMU was t'name of a rather rare but tasty large bird )


Most of us goldbugs are currently unequivocal about 5 things:

1 ) Price of Au production in So. Africa is above $308 T/oz even with hedging programs...


2 ) The normal 9yr gold cycle has been interrupted. It has been a sell all rallies market for 15 years now.


3 ) The normal annual "buy the 'demand months' of Sept-Nov" hasn't occurred for 2 yrs in a row now...further proof of manipulation.


4 ) The role of gold in Central Bank reserves is still the ultimate measure by which a nation's creditworthiness is STILLLLLL measured.
( Just look at what the IMF requires member nations to fork over as a price of admission inorder to insure their international lender of last resort status: yep, GOLD! )


5 ) The Bretton Woods Act Timetable is just 14 months away from full implementation of the EMU.

Please visit my website if you haven't gotten there yet, and review the
EMU/Bretton Woods Time Line chart as published in Business Week over 1 year ago.

http://www.worldaccessnet.com/~goldbug/
http://www.worldaccessnet.com/~goldbug/euro$.gif

Speaking of a gold sell-off, Robert Prechter, who is a reeeeeal researcher at heart, was the first one to pound the table back at $450-480 gold that we'd see $265 T/oz before we'd see $500 Au again.

It is my conviction that we will quite possibly see $195 gold before all is said and done, frankly.

Why? Two reasons: Pendulum swings are as customarily overdone on the low
side as the swing was on the high side...ala $810 T/oz gold back when.
And, 2 ) the 5-8 year gold forward contracting at mucho higher prices most big producers implemented was done to get them past this EMU introduction phase until the global foot came off the brake of gold prices!

You know something, it's funny, but Peter Munk ( ABX CEO ) in an CNBC interview just a couple weeks ago talked about the impact of the introduction of the EMU as being the single most overriding factor in the pricing of gold currently. And he further stated that most folks didn't understand this.


Now if the CEO of the world's Largest Gold Mining Company sez this....
well, it's nice to know he thinks what I've noodled out all by mahselfen! ( grin )

Just for a minute, say you still have an open mind at the moment:

The bottom line is this:

Gold HAS BEEN AND STILL IS the reserve "currency of Choice."

US $ has been officially tagged as t'"new reserve currency" of choice, meaning that owning the US dollar is as good as gold. Why? Mainly because of WIDE DISTRIBUTION of both!!!..yellow gold is widely distributed a/w/a green pictures of our dead presidents.


For there to be a "successful" introduction/57+ year timeline for the EMU ( aka Bretton Woods Currency Act of 1942 ) then 2 things must happen to make the EMU instantly appear as strong ( read above as "brilliant idea by original BWCA committee" )

Gold Price has to be weakened by manipulating the perception of above
ground supply ( aka the "selling pressure-Gold" of Central Banks"--to other central banks of course but the media doesn't tell us that!! )
and....

the CONCURRENT of the US Dollar.

When...

these two weakenings is pronounced "Mission Accomplished" ( and the major
deval of the US$ is weeeelllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll underway ) and another deval chunk lies ahead of us, folks!...

then...

Gold=US$=EU

One thing I'd like to remind you of in closing:

The World Bank Head Honcho is none other than Paul Volker...the gent who
oversaw/engineered the biggest-inflation-US$-spiral-in-our- Gold=US$-in-Carter-Administration-as-the-head-of-our-Federal-Reserve-
Central-Bank history! ( Some say it started w/Pre-Volker Miller )

Volker didn't leave the Fed Reserve Post as a failure...he was kicked upstairs and the world renowned goldbug, Alan Greenspan, was installed here as Volcker went to Europe to implement the next phase of Bretton Woods Currency Act of 1942.


Now, you want a peek into the future? Comtemplate that last paragraph and
then throw this into the grist mill:

The Bretton Woods Currency Act of 1942 was designed to do 2 things:

Restore European Financial Stability after WWII

AS WELL AS

Japan's Financial Stability after WWII.

There is a sequel to the EMU...it has not been named yet, but it IS labelled in the Bretton Woods Currency Act Accord of 1942...

Yes, ladies and gentlemen:

We will go through this again after the launch of the EU in Jan 1 1999
and it will be an Asian Monetary Unit-AMU.

So, what should one be collecting in this

Gold=US$=EMU=AMU period?


GOLD!

ALL THE REST IS JUST ( TOILET ) PAPER!

This set of comments seems too well thought out to waste:

The price of gold is headed below the cost of production for many MANY
producers. It is not being dictated by supply/demand which is as great as it has ever been.

POG is being dictated by the Master Plan for getting the 1942 Bretton Woods Currency Accord implemented, which calls for a second reserve currency which they then labelled European Monetary Unit or "EMU"... that is until someone in the 90s pointed out an EMU was t'name of a rather rare but tasty large bird )


Most of us goldbugs are currently unequivocal about 5 things:

1 ) Price of Au production in So. Africa is above $308 T/oz even with hedging programs...


2 ) The normal 9yr gold cycle has been interrupted. It has been a sell all rallies market for 15 years now.


3 ) The normal annual "buy the 'demand months' of Sept-Nov" hasn't occurred for 2 yrs in a row now...further proof of manipulation.


4 ) The role of gold in Central Bank reserves is still the ultimate measure by which a nation's creditworthiness is STILLLLLL measured.
( Just look at what the IMF requires member nations to fork over as a price of admission inorder to insure their international lender of last resort status: yep, GOLD! )


5 ) The Bretton Woods Act Timetable is just 14 months away from full implementation of the EMU.

Please visit my website if you haven't gotten there yet, and review the
EMU/Bretton Woods Time Line chart as published in Business Week over 1 year ago.

http://www.worldaccessnet.com/~goldbug/
http://www.worldaccessnet.com/~goldbug/euro$.gif

Speaking of a gold sell-off, Robert Prechter, who is a reeeeeal researcher at heart, was the first one to pound the table back at $450-480 gold that we'd see $265 T/oz before we'd see $500 Au again.

It is my conviction that we will quite possibly see $195 gold before all is said and done, frankly.

Why? Two reasons: Pendulum swings are as customarily overdone on the low
side as the swing was on the high side...ala $810 T/oz gold back when.
And, 2 ) the 5-8 year gold forward contracting at mucho higher prices most big producers implemented was done to get them past this EMU introduction phase until the global foot came off the brake of gold prices!

You know something, it's funny, but Peter Munk ( ABX CEO ) in an CNBC interview just a couple weeks ago talked about the impact of the introduction of the EMU as being the single most overriding factor in the pricing of gold currently. And he further stated that most folks didn't understand this.


Now if the CEO of the world's Largest Gold Mining Company sez this....
well, it's nice to know he thinks what I've noodled out all by mahselfen! ( grin )

Just for a minute, say you still have an open mind at the moment:

The bottom line is this:

Gold HAS BEEN AND STILL IS the reserve "currency of Choice."

US $ has been officially tagged as t'"new reserve currency" of choice, meaning that owning the US dollar is as good as gold. Why? Mainly because of WIDE DISTRIBUTION of both!!!..yellow gold is widely distributed a/w/a green pictures of our dead presidents.


For there to be a "successful" introduction/57+ year timeline for the EMU ( aka Bretton Woods Currency Act of 1942 ) then 2 things must happen to make the EMU instantly appear as strong ( read above as "brilliant idea by original BWCA committee" )

Gold Price has to be weakened by manipulating the perception of above
ground supply ( aka the "selling pressure-Gold" of Central Banks"--to other central banks of course but the media doesn't tell us that!! )
and....

the CONCURRENT of the US Dollar.

When...

these two weakenings is pronounced "Mission Accomplished" ( and the major
deval of the US$ is weeeelllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll underway ) and another deval chunk lies ahead of us, folks!...

then...

Gold=US$=EU

One thing I'd like to remind you of in closing:

The World Bank Head Honcho is none other than Paul Volker...the gent who
oversaw/engineered the biggest-inflation-US$-spiral-in-our- Gold=US$-in-Carter-Administration-as-the-head-of-our-Federal-Reserve-
Central-Bank history! ( Some say it started w/Pre-Volker Miller )

Volker didn't leave the Fed Reserve Post as a failure...he was kicked upstairs and the world renowned goldbug, Alan Greenspan, was installed here as Volcker went to Europe to implement the next phase of Bretton Woods Currency Act of 1942.


Now, you want a peek into the future? Comtemplate that last paragraph and
then throw this into the grist mill:

The Bretton Woods Currency Act of 1942 was designed to do 2 things:

Restore European Financial Stability after WWII

AS WELL AS

Japan's Financial Stability after WWII.

There is a sequel to the EMU...it has not been named yet, but it IS labelled in the Bretton Woods Currency Act Accord of 1942...

Yes, ladies and gentlemen:

We will go through this again after the launch of the EU in Jan 1 1999
and it will be an Asian Monetary Unit-AMU.

So, what should one be collecting in this

Gold=US$=EMU=AMU period?


GOLD!

ALL THE REST IS JUST ( TOILET ) PAPER!

I hate to bring this up, but ...

Friday November 14, 6:28 pm Eastern Time

Concerns mount as U.S money supply continues surge

By John P. Hughes

NEW YORK, Nov 14 ( Reuters ) - The recent resurgence in money supply has Wall Street analysts concerned about inflationary pressures despite
difficulties in establishing a direct connection between the two.

Aggregate U.S. money supply figures for October, released late Thursday by the Federal Reserve, again showed robust growth as the economy
rounded into the fourth quarter of 1997.

The annualized rate of increase for October was 4.9 percent for M2 -- within the Fed's current official target range of 1.0 to 5.0 percent, while M3 at
8.4 percent was well above target of 2.0 to 6.0 percent.

In the week ended November 3, M2 rose $16 billion and M3 almost $29 billion, or 5.3 percent and 8.6 percent above their fourth quarter averages,
respectively, according to Adam Blankman, Treasury market analyst at MMS International.

``There's no doubt money supply is growing ahead of what the Fed allows for and in ( the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee )
September, they made note of the fact that they're paying more attention to it,'' said Kevin Flanagan, first vice president and money market economist
at Dean Witter Reynolds Inc.

The Fed wasn't likely to make money supply a preeminent factor in making policy decisions anytime soon, he said, but the aggregates could take on a
heightened role as they clearly show there has been an explosion in money supply.

The increased liquidity generally has banks scrambling to fund loan demand -- a scenario that often has led to higher consumer spending levels and a
rise in inflationary pressures.

While the importance of the relationship between the overall economy and monetary aggregates has become more difficult to measure, they still are
weighed during policy considerations. M2 in particular has been used to try to measure consumer demand, real or theoretical.

The Monetary Control Act, passed in 1979, lifted interest-rate ceilings depository institutions could pay on demand accounts which led to a
mushrooming of new products such as NOW and sweep accounts. So a traditionally easy measure of money supply becomes more difficult to
decipher.

The total stock of money in the economy is measured in three ways by the Federal Reserve: M1, which keeps tabs on the sum of cash, demand
deposits, travelers checks, and interest-earning checking accounts; M2, which equals M1 plus savings and other highly liquid instruments, and M3,
which tracks M2 and other very liquid instruments.

``The Fed should pay more attention to the money aggregates,'' said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. He said a
correction from a sharp spurt in money supply seen this summer was to be expected.

``There was a brief period in the early '80s when it was not considered as healthy ( a barometer ) ,'' Resler said. However, it has proved to be a useful
tool since, he added.

Flanagan said an explosion of primary dealerships in the mid-1980s led to a concommitant eruption in the number of professional ``Fed watchers,''
but by the early 1990s many economists were writing off the importance of money supply.

Still, not all economists place great credence in the numbers. Indeed, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan downplayed the importance of M2 in recent
years, although the Fed now seems to be reevaluating its stance on the numbers.

Charles Lieberman, managing director at Strategic Partners, disagreed that the numbers remained very useful.

``Clearly the Fed has not given up on money supply ( being important ) ,'' Lieberman said. ``But the documents ( aggregates ) still appear to be a
secondary consideration.''

However, he acknowledged that the numbers have corelated to the economy ``to some extent.''

MMS's Blankman said the Fed realizes it has to place its attention on a broad base of numbers, but the continued expansion in the aggregates was
one of the factors helping them maintain a tightening bias.

While the corelations may not be as tight as they had been in the past, the surge in money supply can't be ignored, Flanagan said.


Related News Categories: US Market News, currency, international, options

Zimbabwe central banker no comment on currency crisis

HARARE, Nov 14 ( Reuters ) - Zimbabwe's chief central banker declined on Friday to comment on the country's currency crisis, hours after his bank
had intervened heavily to rescue the Zimbabwe dollar from an unprecedented crash against the U.S. dollar earlier in the day.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/zimbabwe_dollar_gove_1.html

Au contrair Pword. The markets havn't "Gone against me" yet, since I'm on the sidelines for equities and heavily in Silver as I've stated many times, and also waiting for this DOW corrective phase to be over so I can average back in big time in the 6700 region or so, which I have also stated publicly here many times. As to other handles, see my challenge to you earlier thsi evening, it was YOU and other's who said I was posting as "Karlito" and I'll be happy to prove you wrong for a nice LARGE wager eh? Same with the "Gus" nonsense et al. Now, don't arrouse my wrath further or I shall have to whip you like a stepchild! AS to gutless, it takes NO GUTS to make wild and perpetually inaccurate predictions week after week. What DOES take guts is to admit when you're WRONG. I'll make predictions based on my own strategy and I'll admit when it fails, AND if you're crash occurs in anytime before MAJOR changes take place in our economy I'll not only polish your dman shoes but I'll lick em shiny to boot! Now go stare at that Moon like I told you and be glad you live in this great country where even perpetually wrong market analysts can eek out a good living.

U.S. Federal Budget = $1.5 trillion. U.S. Debt = $6 trillion. Debt service = $283 Billion. Interest rate on debt = 4.7%. Unfunded SS = ?.

O.K., the above numbers show how lidicrous is the notion of repaying the principle on the debt. Everyone knows this including Greenspan but what difference does it make as long as we can keep rolling it over. The single biggest threat to the U.S. economy is a spike in inflation and/or interest rates. A rise to 7% interest rates would make the debt financing number go to $420 billion or 28% of current federal budget spending as opposed to 18% today.

This would leave the government with three options. Cut spending ( last resort ) , raise taxes ( second option ) , or throw it on top of the debt heap ( most likely ) . We are in a debt spiral that is the cause of 95% of all bankruptcies. WHEN YOU CANNOT SERVICE THE INTEREST ON YOUR DEBT, THE END IS NEAR!

This leaves Greenspan with few options. He must keep the economy productive and liquid of course. Most importantly he must worry about an overheating economy which would be inflationary ( read higher interest rates ) and SUPLY SHOCK INFLATION ( read attack Saddam ) . Finally, he must craft a monetary way out of the debt spiral as the congress/president do not have the backbone to cut spending or raise taxes. I believe these three goals accurately describe 95% of Greenspans activities. The last two are what drives him to manipulate our precious gold.

Whether it is a master plan to herd all the money into place for a global currency restructuring or the more benign assurance of the lack of inflation, the central banks are absolutely acting in concert in a public relations manipulation of the public perception of gold.

I like that. The central banks are absolutely acting in concert in a public relations manipulation of the public perception of gold.

I myself doubt that all this effort would go into such a grand plan just for purposes of investor inflation fear abatement. Especially when you consider the political implications for Australia ( loss of mining profits and jobs ) and Germany ( historical fear of runaway paper inflation ) .

I also find it awkward that the central banks would be talking about dumping hard assets in favor of equity investments. How odd that the central banks would try to turn a few bucks on the open markets, thereby competing with private citizens. Raise your hand if you are willing to pay more taxes so your government can play the market! There is also an unreality to democratic governments investing on the open market and owning private corporations.

No, there is a political risk to all these central bank gold sale announcements so there must be an unkown high risk for not doing so.

This is your assignment, find out what it is.

Steve

Economists polled by Reuters expect German interest rates to be raised further before May 1998, in part to achieve the necessary convergence
among interest rates ahead of monetary union.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/germany_tietmeyer_1s_1.html

Puetz: Even for YOU, that thing about LGB using differen't handles when the market went against him is PRETTY DAMN LAME---can't you come up with something better than that?? I see gold at 4,000 and the Dow at 3,000 by the next FULL MOON ( har har har ) . Bye

What is more valuable, the beautiful or the useful?

Re: Arden's post about the adjustment in silver and gold numbers.

"Due to an error in reporting stocks, the Metal
Warehouse Statistics from the close of business on Nov. 13
incorrectly showed a total of 3,811,872 troy ounces of
silver and 75,284 troy ounces of gold at Swiss Bank Corp.
The actual total was 335,203 troy ounces of silver and
43,696 troy ounces of gold.
Today's inventory report, dated Nov. 14, 1997,
correctly reflects the transfer of all Swiss Bank Corp. gold
and silver inventories to Republic National Bank."

Does anyone honestly believe that they miscalculated the numbers?!
No way. Someone is taking the metals out. Had they released the numbers yesterday, it would have created a panic today. So, the news is released on Friday night, so its burried over the weekend. 10x less silver and only 50% gold.
This could potentially spell trouble.

ADVISORY: COMEX METAL WAREHOUSE TOTALS FOR TODAY
DELAYED


New York, Nov. 14-FWN--THE COMEX METAL WAREHOUSE TOTALS
for today's closing will be delayed due to technical
difficulties according to a source at COMEX. The addtional
files for gold, silver and copper will also be delayed.

uropean rating agency IBCA said Japanese authorities should start planning for the worst as the Nikkei stock index falls. It also said some Japanese
trust banks have no hidden reserves and have 350 percent of their equity invested in the stock market.

Many pundits still looked for more downside in the yen, with the 130.00 level, or roughly $0.007726, mentioned as a possible target.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/imm_currency_futures_2.html

The University of Michigan's preliminary November sentiment index, in a surprise, rose to 106.1 from October's final revised reading of 105.6. Its
current conditions index jumped to 115.5 from 109.8 although expectations dipped to 100.0 from 102.8.

Analysts said they were somewhat mystified by the gains in the overall and current conditions index. Many figured with the 554-point plunge in the
Dow Jones industrial average on October 27 front page news on Main Street, consumers would get a little nervous.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/us_consumers_shrug_o_2.html

``We're going to be watching the Nikkei very, very closely,'' Jim Fralick, director of European economics at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, said in
London.

``Today we saw the Nikkei falling and also bond prices falling, which is the reverse of what we normally get. People are nervous and worried about
that.''

The Nikkei bounced slightly from a dip below 15,000 on Friday but analysts said below that level Japanese banks could begin to unwind foreign
assets, mainly U.S. Treasuries.

``Japanese banks and institutions have to repatriate capital from the U.S. to recapitalise back home and this could mean they have to sell bonds,'' said
Ian Morris, international economist at HSBC James Capel in London.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/week_ahead_markets_1.html

This set of comments seems too well thought out to waste:

The price of gold is headed below the cost of production for many MANY
producers. It is not being dictated by supply/demand which is as great as it has ever been.

POG is being dictated by the Master Plan for getting the 1942 Bretton Woods Currency Accord implemented, which calls for a second reserve currency which they then labelled European Monetary Unit or "EMU"... that is until someone in the 90s pointed out an EMU was t'name of a rather rare but tasty large bird )


Most of us goldbugs are currently unequivocal about 5 things:

1 ) Price of Au production in So. Africa is above $308 T/oz even with hedging programs...


2 ) The normal 9yr gold cycle has been interrupted. It has been a sell all rallies market for 15 years now.


3 ) The normal annual "buy the 'demand months' of Sept-Nov" hasn't occurred for 2 yrs in a row now...further proof of manipulation.


4 ) The role of gold in Central Bank reserves is still the ultimate measure by which a nation's creditworthiness is STILLLLLL measured.
( Just look at what the IMF requires member nations to fork over as a price of admission inorder to insure their international lender of last resort status: yep, GOLD! )


5 ) The Bretton Woods Act Timetable is just 14 months away from full implementation of the EMU.

Please visit my website if you haven't gotten there yet, and review the
EMU/Bretton Woods Time Line chart as published in Business Week over 1 year ago.

http://www.worldaccessnet.com/~goldbug/
http://www.worldaccessnet.com/~goldbug/euro$.gif

Speaking of a gold sell-off, Robert Prechter, who is a reeeeeal researcher at heart, was the first one to pound the table back at $450-480 gold that we'd see $265 T/oz before we'd see $500 Au again.

It is my conviction that we will quite possibly see $195 gold before all is said and done, frankly.

Why? Two reasons: Pendulum swings are as customarily overdone on the low
side as the swing was on the high side...ala $810 T/oz gold back when.
And, 2 ) the 5-8 year gold forward contracting at mucho higher prices most big producers implemented was done to get them past this EMU introduction phase until the global foot came off the brake of gold prices!

You know something, it's funny, but Peter Munk ( ABX CEO ) in an CNBC interview just a couple weeks ago talked about the impact of the introduction of the EMU as being the single most overriding factor in the pricing of gold currently. And he further stated that most folks didn't understand this.


Now if the CEO of the world's Largest Gold Mining Company sez this....
well, it's nice to know he thinks what I've noodled out all by mahselfen! ( grin )

Just for a minute, say you still have an open mind at the moment:

The bottom line is this:

Gold HAS BEEN AND STILL IS the reserve "currency of Choice."

US $ has been officially tagged as t'"new reserve currency" of choice, meaning that owning the US dollar is as good as gold. Why? Mainly because of WIDE DISTRIBUTION of both!!!..yellow gold is widely distributed a/w/a green pictures of our dead presidents.


For there to be a "successful" introduction/57+ year timeline for the EMU ( aka Bretton Woods Currency Act of 1942 ) then 2 things must happen to make the EMU instantly appear as strong ( read above as "brilliant idea by original BWCA committee" )

Gold Price has to be weakened by manipulating the perception of above
ground supply ( aka the "selling pressure-Gold" of Central Banks"--to other central banks of course but the media doesn't tell us that!! )
and....

the CONCURRENT of the US Dollar.

When...

these two weakenings is pronounced "Mission Accomplished" ( and the major
deval of the US$ is weeeelllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll underway ) and another deval chunk lies ahead of us, folks!...

then...

Gold=US$=EU

One thing I'd like to remind you of in closing:

The World Bank Head Honcho is none other than Paul Volker...the gent who
oversaw/engineered the biggest-inflation-US$-spiral-in-our- Gold=US$-in-Carter-Administration-as-the-head-of-our-Federal-Reserve-
Central-Bank history! ( Some say it started w/Pre-Volker Miller )

Volker didn't leave the Fed Reserve Post as a failure...he was kicked upstairs and the world renowned goldbug, Alan Greenspan, was installed here as Volcker went to Europe to implement the next phase of Bretton Woods Currency Act of 1942.


Now, you want a peek into the future? Comtemplate that last paragraph and
then throw this into the grist mill:

The Bretton Woods Currency Act of 1942 was designed to do 2 things:

Restore European Financial Stability after WWII

AS WELL AS

Japan's Financial Stability after WWII.

There is a sequel to the EMU...it has not been named yet, but it IS labelled in the Bretton Woods Currency Act Accord of 1942...

Yes, ladies and gentlemen:

We will go through this again after the launch of the EU in Jan 1 1999
and it will be an Asian Monetary Unit-AMU.

So, what should one be collecting in this

Gold=US$=EMU=AMU period?


GOLD!

ALL THE REST IS JUST ( TOILET ) PAPER!

Lurking... Anybody need a spanky tonight?

Nick - since you were so kind to ask, I will answer you in the real 'Arden-speak'

I post the comex info only as facts that are released by comex. The numbers are not mine, they belong to the source. I have tried to 'keep to the facts' on Kitco since there are so many wild and weird comments going on. I always post my real name and my real address as I believe in what I say and do not wish to hide behind a false identity. All of this as an introduction to what you will learn is the real 'arden-speak'

Comex gold and silver warehouse are composed of two parts, eligible and registered. My understanding is that the registered stocks are simply stored there without any obligations, a 'true' warehouse. The 'eligible' stocks I understand are available for delivery against an outstanding contract. Thus, if you were to deposit gold or silver in a comex warehouse that was of the quality to meet their contract specifications, you could write a contract to sell that bullion at a 'future' delivery date, thus creating a 'short' position which some speculator or commercial would purchase. The other way to create a contract is as either a 'hedger' or 'speculator' wanting to set a price for his position. In the case of a hedger, the bullion is available elsewhere, in the case of the speculator, it is an outright bet that the price will go down. That is how contracts are created.

As far as I know, there are five banks that serve as repositories for the gold in 'comex stocks'. One of them, prior to today, had no gold. Today there was the shocking announcement from Swiss Bancorp that they lied about the amount of gold and silver they had available for delivery against comex contracts and that they were leaving the business. Thus, of the five warehouse repositories, two have no gold in them and the rest have less than two ounces for delivery against each 100 ounce contract! I hope I have made myself clear. Why would an announcement of this importance be buried deep in a Friday night in the U. S. on a day when gold looked like it was going into the toilet unless it was the ultimate in 'damage control'!

And, then again, they 'lost' almost three million ounce of 'covered' silver contracts!???

Oh, and a yeah, we haven't seen the rest of the 'comex warehouse' numbers.

Just food for thought on a late night when most are enjoying the 'amber fluid' or some other such delight.

And that is the real 'arden-speak'

Reuters are listing too many articles on gold - way above average.
Just like the ammount of articles on banks.
As well as overseas economies and other financial problems.
These are crisis problems.
Gold is a crisis problem? - wonder why?

Astro for the week with R.Hitt
http://38.209.4.67/open.html

ARE YOU TOTALLY STUPID, OR DO YOU THINK EVERYONE ON THIS SITE IS STUPID???

Korondy
Could you please post the article here.
I can't get access to the file.
Thanks

Will someone slap rmw, I think he is caught in a endless loop.

Now, don't arrouse my wrath further or I shall have to whip you like a stepchild!

Geez dude, that's pretty offensive

Ah comeon! I haven't 'spanked' anybody in quite some days now. Need to have a 'fix'!

So these guys working at the warehouse walk past this pile everyday and noone notices the difference between the inventory sheets and the piles of shiny stuff?

So who still does not believe in a gold conspiracy?

Oh, well, the truth must soon come out when things as absurd as this happen.

ADVISORY: COMEX GOLD, SILVER STOCK LEVELS RE-ADJUSTED


New York-Nov. 14-FWN--THE COMEX DIVISION OF NYMEX TODAY
reported that Swiss Bank Corp., who will cease to act as
a Licensed Depoistory for the storage of gold and silver
deliverable against COMEX's gold and silver futures
contracts on Nov. 21, 1997, has informed the exchange that
Swiss Bank has been incorrectly reporting the amount of gold
and silver eligible for delivery against the respective
contracts.
Due to an error in reporting stocks, the Metal
Warehouse Statistics from the close of business on Nov. 13
incorrectly showed a total of 3,811,872 troy ounces of
silver and 75,284 troy ounces of gold at Swiss Bank Corp.
The actual total was 335,203 troy ounces of silver and
43,696 troy ounces of gold.
Today's inventory report, dated Nov. 14, 1997,
correctly reflects the transfer of all Swiss Bank Corp. gold
and silver inventories to Republic National Bank.
Hope this helps nick

11/14/97 17:07:59

Copyright 1997 by Futures World News
All Rights Reserved.

To all ma frens at Kitco

As you may recall, Ah reported zat zee WOP ( Wizards
of zee Pyraneess ) had forecast a low for zee beautiful
gold at 305$ of zee US dollair. So zey are liars for
a buck and a half ??
As ah say before, zey use zee method of zee dreaded
waves of monsieur Elliott and zey are nevair wrong !!
Okay maybe sometimes by dam.
Zey now say zat zee low for zee gold is in by gar.
So please be ignoring zee peuples who say zee gold
go lowair and ignore please zee silly peesants lak
monsiour "LBG" who seem lak a low form of zee human
life.
Also please say nice zings to monsieur puetz who
make zee crazee forecast wiz great courage. Ah lak
him a lot and nobody right ALL ZEE TIME - not even
zee WOP.

HAH! Thought Gold was dead eh? You bears hear that news about COMEX? BTW, how are the Japanese banks, insurance companies, and brokerages doing?

Keep looking Kitcoites. Comex is the tip of the ice-berg. They are
not going to be able to hold the genie in the bottle for much longer.
LGB your 16000 Nikkei by mid Dec made me laugh. I think Greenie
won that one outright, no arguments.
P.S. Zen koan.
If you hang around gold bottoms for long enough, you bound to hit
a golden shower.

Any further elaboration on your last post you'd like to share? I, for one, am interested. ( no wagers! )

Hepcat -- I agree. As a number of posters have said over time, a good possibility exists that the metals would be kept in the dumpster until the coffers were essentially empty. It would appear that the condition is, or nearly is, met. I wonder what 'rabbit' they'll pull out of the hat. Perhaps they'll 'find' some un-accounted for brick under someones mattress somewhere. Or maybe a delivery that went to the wrong warehouse and just happened to be 'found'. Or maybe, just maybe, they won't find anymore laying about and the jig really WILL be up!

Hepcat -- Rather than the word 'said', I should use the term 'postulated'.

G'Day from Kalgoorlie. This may be stating the obvious, but I have plotted out the relative trends of market indices, US$/Yen, Nikkei and gold price covering the periods for 1997 and 1993 to 1997. Gold and the Nikkei are a common sharp trend downwards at this time, in contrast to the others.

Will the Nikkei correct before or at the 14000 point level, and will gold correct itself upwards - in January 1998 ??!!.

This is from the site Nick pointed to. Interesting I think.


Monday the 17th is a VERY BIG DAY IN THE SKY!!!!! A complex aspect pattern called a YOD or a "Finger of God" will be exact ON THE
ANGLES of Chicago at 11:00 AM EST. I hope to finish Lesson 7 of Basic Training this weekend and will go into this aspect in detail. This Yod will
be nearly exact on the first trade chart of the return to the "normal" opening time on the CME S&P futures contract. There will be a change of
character in the spoos starting this day. As with all first trade charts this energy will tend to stick around for a long time. The CME may wish they had
just left the starting time where it was because this first trade chart is like jumping from the frying pan into the fire.This powerful formation has its focus
on MARS at the midpoint of Uranus and Pluto which is OPPOSED by the Moon. If a late week rally was a fakeout and a huge crash wave is going
to occur into the end of November THIS aspect will be the trigger. Mars will be EXACTLY on my ascendant this day also so this will also affect me
personally. Hopefully it will be because of what I am pointing out here and because I am short and not some other "bad" reason. All I know is this
combination of planets tied together in this way is volatile, explosive, and does have a very destructive look to it. This may be a time of retaliation or
terror and I DO NOT like the look of it. Do NOT take anything for granted on November 17th. These Yod patterns are not called "finger of God"
for nothing.

Wall Street: Asia's contagion takes a firmerhold

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 15 1997

The ailment has advanced and symptoms have changed, writes John Authers

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed
upon the world.

The words of W.B. Yeats, taken from The Second Coming, might be a trifle
overstated but they offer a summary of the more bearish views abroad in Wall Street. Yeats was expounding an eccentric view of destiny which foretold a rising cycle of evil leading to a climax at the end of the millennium; a theory which, in the unlovely prose of Wall Street scribes, would probably be known now as the "Y2K Problem".

This philosophy of history at least has the virtue of coherence - which is more than can be said for the febrile state of the market.
Wall Street plainly remains stricken by the Asian contagion, as the impact of the currency crisis there has become known. But the ailment has advanced in the past three weeks, and its symptoms have changed.
A few patterns are discernible. Retail investors' confidence is undimmed.
Fears that the contagion would induce a total meltdown in stock markets,
prevalent at the end of October, seem to have been allayed decisively.

The market has settled into a "corrected" state. The all-time high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was more than three months ago and
equities are trading at close to 10 per cent below that level. But if the market is not going to crash, views on its future and that of the
US economy are worryingly divergent.

Some believe the latest employment figures, the best in more than a decade, foreshadow serious inflation. On this reading, the currency crisis, by inducing the Federal Reserve not to raise rates this week, has stoked the flames of inflation. But you can find at least as many adherents to the view that the impact on exports will help finally to pull the US economy into deflation and recession.

Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Fed and by far the market's most influential figure, navigated a careful course on the issue in testimony on Thursday. He described the direct impact on the US of the Asian crisis as "modest, but it can be expected not to be negligible".

US exports to Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia were about 4 per cent of total US exports in 1996, he said, while another 12 per cent went to Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. The problems would "mute" export growth, and there would be "some drop-off in earnings" for exporters.

Greenspan then moved on to what he called the "contagion effect" of
"weakness in one economy spreading to others as investors perceive, rightly or wrongly, similar vulnerabilities". This he described as "particularly troublesome" ( Yeats would have put it better ) .

He added: "One can debate whether the turbulence in Latin American asset
values reflects contagion effects from Asia, the influence of developments in US financial markets, or home-grown causes.
"Whatever the answer, and the answer may be all of the above, this
phenomenon illustrates the interdependencies in today's world economy and
financial system".

Wall Street still seems reluctant to agree with this. On Thursday, Chase
Manhattan, America's largest bank, announced a loss of $160m on trading
activities during October, mainly because it had been wrong- footed on Latin American bonds.

Chase is an enormous bank, and can absorb the loss without difficulty, but it was startling to see its share price move up on news that it had been so stricken by the contagion.

Shares in most of the international "money center" banks have fallen since the currency crisis started, and they tumbled further this week after George Salem, one of New York's more influential banking analysts, downgraded the international banks to "hold" from "buy".

He argued that emerging markets and trading had provided the engine for
profits growth for the banks for several years, and had been expected to
continue to fulfil this role.

Next day brought the news of Chase's losses. But Wall Street treated it as a "buying opportunity" in the money centers, with several analysts publishing "buy" recommendations.

This kind of divergence happens from time to time, but the strength of emotion is unusual - and deeply unsettling. For an accurate summary of the balance of attitudes in Wall Street, perhaps it is best to return to Yeats: The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.

Hepcat@rational.sane?????: I'm confused. Is someone actually trying to rehabilitate the "Hepcat" handle???

Good evening SDRer. I do believe that Monday is going to be very exciting, I admit reading the astrology report certainly impacted me. Maybe its just the way he throws the "finger of God" term around. Next week we ought to see more causalities show up ... banks and brokers, I bet. It does feel like a transision week -- as some have pointed out, there are times you have to count on your gut.

Arden: Many thanks for catching the .... uh, revision, in Comex stocks. It's enough to rattle one's confidence in the accuracy of the "green eyeshade" types. From the Swiss Bank, no less. ...... Stock options they can account for. Inventories of PMs are another matter.

Has this story been picked up by AP or Reuters?

Your post on above date dealt with R. Carnegie ( G30 ) . Could you post what about the situation had an unpleasant smell? Thnx.

To: All
In case you don't have enough troublesome stuff to drive you Crazy over
the week-end, here is a good Y2K report at JP Morgan. Complete report is PDF.
http://www.jpmorgan.com/MarrketDatalnd/Research/Year2000/index.htm

rmw: If you are still up, I have a few questions about your 00:04 post. If Peter Munk actually said that reason for current gold pricing is the launching of the ECU/EMU -- then that seems to me a major PR screwup. I would expect that such information the "powers that be" would like to keep secret.
RJ also said this, and it makes sense. How nice it would be for all of those ECU/EMU countries to be have low-cost currencies, and a rich partner with a strong US dollar to sell to! That would certainly give a boost to their balance sheets, and improve the odds of the ECU/EMU going on line Jan 1 1999. The rise of the dollar, and the fall of the gold price in the last 1 1/2 years or so reflects a tremendous purchasing volume of dollars outside the US. You wonder if the process is in part by "borrowing" gold to buy dollars. The SE Asia further amplifies this dollar shift, as they need dollars to keep liquid. Now the IMF has increased reserve requirements as well.
Eventually, however, the dollar will weaken ( already happening, I think ) , and non-US countries will start selling dollars. Unless central banks step up and allow more gold "borrowing" the dollar will weaken further, and there will be a rush from dollars to another currency -- and the new ECU/EMU is launched, but at the expense of the US dollar.
Do you agree that this is the plan? Now the wild cards consist of a SE Asian currency ( not likely now because of the SE Asian crisis ) , or gold itself. If gold becomes attractive again, instead of the ECU/EMU, this would imply that the new world's currency was a failure, I would guess.
There is only one problem with this scenario. If this apparently carefully engineered launching of the ECU/EMU does what I think it will, everyone will exit the dollar for gold, and not the ECU/EMU, as it will not have an adequate track record as a substitute for the dollar.
Then, the only solution will be a new world currency -- namely a currency firmly backed by gold. All other "paper" currencies will be obsolete, and one of the first goals of the "New World Order" will have been achieved -- a single world's currency. Perhaps this is why the precise nature of the ECU/EMU has not been specified -- to leave options open to the gold backup plan if the dollar falters.
What really worries me in all of this is the impression that the US dollar is being setup to fail -- it might very well have failed anyway, like the Pound Sterling did in the thirties. But it seems to me that the "powers that be" are accelerating the process.
Comments, anyone? As Marcus said, the thought of conspiracies gives me a headache!

To: A. Goose

1 ) Did you pick up the post with the total returns to 7/11/97?
2 ) I do believe I got the BIG answer to what is going on, I'd like to run-it-by someone. Maybe I'll get enough nerve next week. Finger of God, my goodness! If what I think is happening, is happening, wwoowwoo.
3 ) You know I like to check foreign papers because it makes us see ourselves as other see us. And right now the Euros think we are nuts;
probably the first thing the French, Germans and Brits have agreed on in a long time.
Take care. You posted some great stuff. As did some of the other folks.
I wish I had enough guts to answer themissinglink/steve question, but not for now I guess.

Well look who's back http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpne1x.htm Plus, scandal in FBI and Justice Dept. http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpne07.htm Folks, this administration is in deep trouble.

SDRer:

Not sure what you mean by "1 ) Did you pick up the post with the total returns to 7/11/97?

We will talk tomorrow. I am bushed, I was hoping for more posting from others but I getting to tired to read now. I was hoping for a follow up on HepCat's post.

7 and 0.

UN-defeated.

NO losses.

I am the three point GOD!!

Any Questions?

NEXT!!!

JTF, hello. This letter illustrates, I think, what they are trying to establish.
Nonetheless, ECU will be a regional matter, a Regional currency. The Globalists would prefer that it be reasonably hard ( that explains, I think Chiracs putting forward Trichet ) . But the Globalists are hard at it...


This caught my eye because Trichet is G30
This letter to the Editor ( FT, Thursday 11/13/97 ) is of interest for several reasons: it demonstrates the globalist ( by life experience and inclination, one suspects: the writer. is: a German teaching at an American university, writing to a London paper about the appointment of a Frenchman to an important post with the new European government.

TRICHET DEMONSTRABLY HAS THE CREDENTIALS TO HEAD ECB

Sir, Your leader Mr. Trichet and the ECB ( November 5 ) dismisses too easily the case for Mr. Trichet. Without his success in stabilizing the franc and forcing France into convergence there simply would be no Emu on the horizon. But there is more to the case. The European Central Bank head will need -- beyond a demonstrated commitment to HARD money--two qualifications: a sophisticated understanding of monetary policy and
significant public relations skills.

Every central banker in Europe shares the hard money credentials and those who were further behind to start with get extra credit for the harder fight. The choice must therefore come on other grounds.

There is no blueprint for the European monetary mechanism. In the past there was German monetary policy; short of continuing that the ECB will have to experiment. ECB monetary policy will not be tantamount to automatic pilot. Research is under way to establish rules of thumb about the link between money and interest rates in a changing financial structure, interest rates and activity and the link to inflation.

The ECB head will need technical competence to penetrate the issues, interact with staff in judging what is uncertain ( as Alan Greenspan does, for example, in the US ) and what risks to take. It is not enough to have a vague grasp of the quantity theory of money.

Choosing the most reactionary cardinal will not make an effective pope. ( Interesting metaphor SDRer ) . The ECB head will need to establish a broad public endorsement of European monetary policy. Everybody has a view of what the ECB might accomplish--from price stability to full employment. The room for frustration, and hence political interference with the independence of the ECB, is substantial. Hence the need to select a leader who has demonstrated communication skill.

Trichet has persuaded France to accept low inflation and an unwavering commitment to hard money, even in the face of high unemployment and intense political challenges. His persuasiveness led foreign investors to lend to France at German rates. In sum, he can play the public role far better than others known primarily for their autocratic style and low boiling point.
Rudi Dornbusch,
professor of economics and international management
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA

I fear I maybe on my last life! Was it JTF that said if I took a Proton
pill I could conceivably have 18 half lives. Well let me say, I'm not
about to take a Proton pill and I would prefer all dead-of-the night
creeps to stay well away.

Nick Van Excellent; Sorry, but the 'quieting the riff-raff' job is already spoken for until further notice. I haven't been called the 'fumigator' for nothin'!

Wasn't talkin to you... BUZZ OFF!

This is between me and John Barkslikeadog.

go gold. go purple and gold.

Hepcat: ( Or should I say, the new,improved, coherent, and probably different Hepcat ) No it was not me that said you should take a proton pill. Someone did say something along those lines, somewhen today. Protons by themselves are non-radioactive, with a halflife of about 10 to the power of 31 years. If you live long enough to see a proton decay you will probably outlive the universe. Not bad for someone who has nine lives!

Hey Missing, re your 00:47, "Whip like a stepchild" is meant to be a humorous phrase, not a serious one. Also, why is it that when I use such tame hyperbole, folks like you come out of the woodwork to tell me how offensive it is and yet you don't seem to mind at all when other's are making threats to send letter bombs, do violence, violate constitutional rights, etc.? Seems like some folks here have some REALLY bizarre and twisted notions of what constitues offensive speech, no? Or am I reading too much into it? Maybe it's more simple, like just sheer hypocrisy against those whose beliefs do not necessarily jibe with your own?

Good of you to come out and play. Is this THE hepcat or an imposter. PLEASE, say something heppish.

Tell me you are not bullish on gold now. I must be mistaken. Did they get to you?? Hmmmmmmm... must be a charlatan...

away...to seek out the real HepCatRat


OK. I'm trying to have an open mind. I read all these dozens of "Gold price manipulation" posts and I keep asking myself. Why is it so important for someone to manipulate the price, and who has the incredibly deep pockets to do so? If CB's seel Gold to shore up currencies and reduce deficits, or because they truly believe the inert metal can't earn interest like Bonds can, just how is this manipulation? Seems to me like the market is pretty damn big to have someone manipulating it, especially since some of the biggest Gold consumers such as India would not play along with any grandiose manipulation schemes. Os is it all that Jewish banker Soros/Rotchschild/Rockafeller/Illuminat/Tri-Lateral Bush conspiracy stuff again?? ( Could the co-conspirator Bush have purposely let Saddam off the hook at the behest of his string pullers? Hmmmm? )

And how many of you conspiracy nuts have been around long enough to remember May Brussels ( Dialogue of a conspiracy? ) Now there was an idiot savant for ya.

If that's the real Hepcat, than I was posting as Karlito and GloomyGus...not!!! To paraphrase my old Dan Quale debating VP pal, "I knew John HepCat, John HepCat was a friend of mine, new imposter...you're NO JOHN HEPCAT!!"

Who is the imposter loopy gee bees. Look at the markets and
stop listening to your broker he might just shed an r for you.;

SDRer: R. Dornbusch again! Amazing how frequently his name comes up. HARD money is the topic! The plot thickens, doesn't it?
Now what we need to know is just exactly what they mean by hard money -- just how much harder than other currencies will the new EURO dollar be? Are we talking hard like the German mark? Or hard like gold? My guess, since R.D. says any central banker in Europe has experience with "hard" money, he is probably not talking about a really hard gold standard type of currency.
R.D. says something else- "There is no blueprint for the European monetary mechanism" What does this mean? Is he saying that there is no current reference basket currency that has built in corrections for inflation, and interest rates in the different countries to compare to? I think so, because that was George Soros chief criticism of the pending EURO ( or ECU/EMU ) .
There is one other point I get out of the choice of Mr. Trichet. The European Central Bank head will be from a gold-rich country, such as Germany or France. England will be watching in the wings, possibly with the backup currency. It is also interesting that R.D. thinks the ECB head should have the skills of Alan Greenspan.
What really bothers me is that this new world-class currency is officially going on line Jan 1999, and the details have not been worked out yet. What's up? Enough time for computer simulations first before the "go live" date? Does this mean that noone knows how much of a gold "cushion" each member needs in their respective central banks?

This is frustrating - the more you know the more you reallize how little you know - just like Physics!
SDRer- Thanks for sharing this with me.

Who says???? And who cares??? If I said Nikkei 16,000 ( which I do not recall ) than I was dead wrong!! Until a few months from now that is. See, Pword, I'm not even sure I was wrong and yet I still admit to my "error", it's easy!!

The important thing to remember is not the Nikkei, but where the mighty DOW will be going, and Silver & Gold. I've said many times, DOW in corrective phase for a few months, but NO CRASH a la "Pword". Gold to languish, Silver to go up. It's all on course and will remain so.

I think the real HepCat may have just called you on your Nikkei 16000. That sounds much more like him.
Tell me who was that U NO Whoo guy anyway? Hmmmmmm... It was sooo familiar.

away...to ponder the posts


c'mon HepCatRat! Speak up!

See you later!

Date: Wed Nov 05 1997 02:46
LGB ( @ GreenFields, Nikkei ) ID#310407:
To be honest, I havn't a clue. My considered guess would be flirtation with 16000 whereupon
intervention by BOJ, the U.S., IMF, and whomever else might step in to shore op the financial
institutions will prevent the all out freefall and a recovery will begin.

Before I retire for the evening, to all GoldBugs who have been predicting rising prices since 1/1/97, and now have taken one of the worst beatings in history, ( all due to manipulation of course....... ) , I can only repeat the words of my pal Ren..... "Stimpy..you Iiiiiiiiiiidiot!"

You have always good and informative posts; please keep them coming. Thanks.

LGB - Where did I post anything about you using different aliases?
I only remember helping out Shek who was looking for your advice by
suggesting he look on SI.

As for the quality of posts this week - I thought they were terrific.
You do not think so? IMO that's your loss.

How many people remember the first post on Kitco about a corner in
silver? As I remember it, he even named the month 12/97!

KGB inwestigation mak startelling find, after maany
months of detailed zzsnooping vee find reason fur vhy LGB
not like the Puetz guy.
Vee find dat LGB write newsletter in competition vit
Puetz Letter and go bankorutto az all his klients zwitch
to Puetz Letter. After bankorutto LGB have little money
and go into stock market. LGB make enough to buy KHEAP
computer AND connekt vit gold -eagle, zo to heckle the
puetz guy.
Inzide, LGB vish dat Puetz hire him as part time helper
to zweep floors and kleleen toilet and spit shine Puetz
shoes.

When the Yen was super strong against the dollar -gold just lingered.
When Mexico bombed and a huge US loan was without taxpayer support - gold lingered.
Major US trade balances are a common continuance and look to become much larger and gold lingers.
World Central Bankers announce gold sales just before the SEA crisis ad bailout, and most media providers rally against the yellow.
SMELLS LIKE A CONSPIRACY TO ME.

LGB
Full moon's here and the positive quarter's brought back,
LGB and the Hepcat.
The negatives of this scorpio moon, down to the darks,
Could see them gone,
Forever to depart.

The cyclical nature of you returns,
Seem to coincide with the markets pulses,
And the way you open the front door,
And engage discourse,
Seem to be in rhythm, with the moon.

To be in such a state of awareness,
With the forces around you,
Must give potent power, to you,
And the ability to play your calls.

Welcome back.


JTF
Still holding my positions, waiting.
We have just retraced a nice fibo ammount, back from the latest fall.
Next week should show the market, its true dirrection.

I have a funny feeling,
That Saddam is using this point in time,
To test the West, and the rest, of the global financial world.
He is playing, a very deep game of chess.
Realising the current fraility, of the global markets,
He is applying more, and more pressure.
If through his actions, he can spook, the already nervous masses,
He will achieve much, without action.
He need only push, till the markets fall,
Then withdraw victorious.

Holding the value, of past oil sold, for gold paper,
Plus the future supplies of oil.
His status of value, would rise substancially,
If the rest of the industrialized world,
Suffered a financial meltdown.

He seems to relish the current moment,
And is attempting to use it to the full.

Good mornin Everyone!....Weather:40 degrees,wind,rain and BIG waves...

Ted
Good morning
Looks like Califonia's having a case of the shakes.
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov/name=quake/zoom=2.800

I expect to see "Fourth of July" on Monday.

G'day mate! A little shaky in Cal. ...eh! ( wonder if they are big enuf to WAKE-UP Eb....I doubt it!...Even though it's raining and very windy the ocean is spectacular this morn. with huge white-capped waves rolling in and pounding our rocky shores...can feel the rumble in the house!

Bernatz: Those wizards really know their stuff. I do recall your telling us about their $305 projection months ago. What do they see happening next?

Once gold breaks decisively below $300. probably to $270 the last low in 1885 was it, you will see "new blood" come into the market as a slew of new buyers enters the gold market. At that time, once these new players get a little taste, then any disruptive event in the world will become wildly bullish for the metal. You see, the only reason no one wants gold right now is because everyone that has owned it for the last several years has gotten killed...but once someone makes a profit again on it..look out..then it becomes more attractive....The other possibility is if gold continues to drop below the $270 low..then you may want to read Bob Prechters book "At the crest of the Tidal Wave"because his views will probably become reality...deflation, deflation, deflation

Guess I shouldn't have taken the valium BEFORE the game. Next time you little punk!

I'm out of here to get The Globe + Mail and a stopover @ the casino~~~~~

How anybody could take Prechter seriously is beyond me. He turned bearish on the stock market when the Dow was under 4000. This guy is a joke.

Shek
Did you see the article on how,
NZ's whole banking system fell to pieces, just for one day.
How on earth are they going to cope in 2 years time.
I wonder what the glitch was and how it could crash the whole system.
This shows just how susceptible, all these systems really are.

Having read the posts from last night, all I can do is re-iterate. I am me, I am not LGB. I have said it before and I will say it again. As for you Puetz, you are a menace to the financial health of anyone foolish enough to take your advice. Your inability to see me as someone different from LGB is just another example of your lack of vision. Investing requires more than stupid courage. It requires wisdom wa quality which you are sorely lacking.

If someones predictions were right or wrong in the past is totally useless information to anyone as no one is perfect or even anywhere near..except maybe Joe Batapaglia....coming events is all that matters..if gold continues to slide and takes out the 1985 low..there is serious trouble brewing on the horizon...what investors do not realize is that massive declines in markets can happen much faster then they think..it is not out of the realm of possibility that the Dow could drop 4000 points in one day...given a series of events that are all very real

No, I am not a believer in the New Economy hockum. But I do recognize that the world we live in today is very different from 1929, just as 1929 was very different from the 1880s.

All of the concerns about growing debt are grossly mis-placed because they only look at one side of the balance sheet. You need to look at both assets and liabilities to determine if an individual, business or country is in trouble.

The US government is better positioned to manage its debt today than at anytime since the 1960s. Debt as a % of GDP is DECLINING.

Stock valuations are high, but not grossly out of line. Irving Fisher was wrong in 1929. Just another economist making a bad forecast. But in 1929 US Steel had all of its assets on its balance sheet. Today, Microsoft does not because Microsoft's most important assets reside between the ears of its more valued employees.

US STeel would have loved to corner the market on its product. There was no chance of that as what US Steel sold was a commodity. Valuating US Steel's assets was a lot easier than trying to do the same for Microsoft today. Having set a technology standard, Microsoft enjoys increasing returns to scale. The more people use its products, the more valuable those products are to everyone. That's a situation that has great value and is very different from anything we have seen in the past. How do you value that. I don't know. But I do know it has great value that is not reflected on the balance sheet of Microsoft.

Consumer debt is way overplayed in the press because much of what gets counted as consumer debt is just a shift to using plastic as a medium of exchange.

Finally, what little impact the currency problems in Asia will have on the US economy will be deflationary. The stuff they sell us will be a lot cheaper. Thats good news for retailers who should experience a boost to their profits and also good news for US consumers who should experience cheaper prices as well.

No everything isnt rosy. There are plenty of things to worry about, but you guys are focused on yesterdays problems, not those of tomorrow.

A. Goose: The post was reepeated because when I slicked on "Submit Comment" I was relegated to a screen in which the most recent post was 23:59 on November 14... Over and over again. So, neither was I able to see my post posted nor was I able to see anything that was posted by anybody until this morning. I used the "Back" button to re-submit in hope of finally being bounced back into the page. Having no visible proof that the post was posted, I just tried again a few times. So I don't apologize, because it was not my fault.


JTF: That post ( 0:04 ) was a reprint of a post by someone named "Ole 49r" at SI and not my own work. As I indicated, I posted it because I thought it was interesting and well thought out enough to elicit intelligent comments here. I will leave a note to her that I posted it and perhaps she can follow up her thoughts in light of the subsequent comments made here.

Karlito: You said: "Consumer debt levels are a concern but the growing level of debt has been more than offset by much greater increases in consumer wealth. The stock market alone has added $6 trillion to consumer wealth in the past three years. Also, the rise in debt reflects a one time shift to the use of plastic as a means of making transactions for
everything from gas to groceries and does not necessarily reflect a growth in debt."

As an accounting person you should recognize the connection here. Stocks are being financed with credit cards. The new era investors are arranging for maximum payroll deductions to their 401K plans. Finding that they are unable to meet their lifestyle needs after these payroll deductions they fund the difference with the credit card, probably not even realizing that they are paying upwards of 20% for what is essentially a margin stock purchase. They are unconcerned as hefty gains in stock prices give them a feeling of comfort. The 1.3 million personal bankruptcies we are experiencing this year are only the first wave of portfolios gone sour. As the stock market unwinds the $6 trillion in wealth you cite evaporates. Was the loss on October 28th not a full trillion? After only six days of that it is all gone. Along with it goes the U.S. government balanced budget which is based upon capital gains taxes.

It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliances with any portion of the foreign world.

George Washington
Farewell Address [september 17, 1796]

What country before ever existed a century and a half without a rebellion? . . . The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure.

[Letter to William Stevens Smith, November 13, 1787]

LGB in total, bare for all the world to see.

It is with narrow-souled people as with narrow-necked bottles; the less they have in them the more noise they make in pouring out.

[Alexander Pope, 1688 - 1744]

Nick,
I did see it. I agree, it will be very interesting starting June of next year in the US. Most state and local govs begin their fiscal year next summer, and I bet there will be more and more computer related problems and mistakes. Better have everything related to your financial and other private matter in writing by next May. Just in case.

If you had asked me a few months back if I would support password protecting this site, I would have said no. Now that LGB has returned I think I have changed my mind. What made this site such a rare gem was that it was dedicated to those people interested in investing in PM's. Now the site is being inflitrated the "goldbugs are fools" crowd.

Yes LGB, if you define a "bad" investment as one where your investment does not increase in value then most PM's investors are "fools". What I don't think you understand is that many and possibly most of those on this site, including myself, and the vast "silent majority" that never post,
view PM's as insurance.

I don't care if I lose 50% of what I "invest" in metals. The way I see it, I've still got 50% left and that's a hell of a lot better than the 0% I have left after paying my car insurance, home owners insurance, etc.

The only question for me is which metals to "invest' in and when to buy so that I get the most metal for my money.

I come to this site for this information and instead I find page after page of posts from people like you saying that anyone who invests in PM's are fools. It's like going to a site to determine which homeowners insurance to buy and having to browse thru pages of postings by some nut who says that anyone who invest in homeowners insurance is a fool because you would get a better return in the stock market!!!

For all the reasons explained above I now state I will not return to this site until such a time as it contains a ignore ID# function so that I won't have to browse thru pages of LGB posting!

FAIRWELL!

Arden,
Your 00:30 is right on the money. Imagine it has not stirred the Kitco community, yet. Surely, population at large has no understanding of the significance of that info. and why it was released on Friday night. I see no reason why on that info alone silver didn't jump up in price 50 cents on Monday. Anyone would be wise to take delivery today, if possible.

Any comments on when silver will hit 50.00 an oz. again?

That's right LGB, I lied, I'm back, sure you'll understand.

WW: I still think the bottom is very close TIMEWISE. The kind of action we have seen these past few weeks is typical of the final capitulation stage of bear markets.

I am less certain that we are near the bottom PRICEWISE, although Friday's XAU action was quite encouraging. Do not ignore that the fact that Bernatz's wizards now say the bottom is in. My hunch is we will crack $300, but this will prove a false downside breakout.

Looking beyond the question of where the bottom is, it might be some time before a strong and sustainable bull move develops. Both bullion and the gold stocks probably will need to form a base of considerable dimensions before a lasting bull can begin.

But when it does commence, the upside will be enormous. Believe it or the big mistake many will make in this bull is selling too soon. Way too soon.

markus11-14@1502

the force you term 'percussion wave' is actually an emp, electro-magnetic-pulse, which has been discussed many
times at this site. the effects of this on the internet
will not even be noticed due to the collapse of the
systems that support communication. ( life )

kiwi---

being wrong is ok matey----------flux and chaos guarantee it!

sub-terranean vulcanism = el nino

ok?......ok.

was the fruit bitter? have another bite................

cherokee!; ) starter-of-the-flame-of-warmth

Arden,
I reread your post, checked the link again, and its mind boggling. They inflated their number by 3,000,000 ozs.! Way to go boys.
2 ozs available against 100 in contracts. Shorts will run scared, and will burn!!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971113/asia_g7_fund_repeat_1.html

Ted
Your home must have a perspective of the sea,
That I am still searching for.
Except in a warmer climate.

Haakem
Prozaic is the preferred choice of many.
Especially the Wall Street Boys.
When taking 4 at a time,
Life seems to look better.
Somehow?

Donald
I like the stories I hear,
Of people who have taken out 10 plastic cards, @$10k.
Pyramiding the credit into stocks.

This method would have been a sure fire way
To have become a millionaire,
Over the last 3 years.
Done safely.

I am just realizing my folly,
For not doing thus.
Soon many will realize their folly.
For doing thus.
Pyramiding normally collapses under its own weight.

Maybe I could do it with gold?
( :o}}}}}

GOLD SKIDS TO $304.60; 12-YR. LOW
http://nypostonline.com/business/828.htm

Sell Stocks Now
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/stocks.htm


The Symbiosis of Alan Greenspan and Bill Clinton
Federal Reserve's massive purchase of S&P 500 stock index futures.
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/greenspa.htm

Looks like there're old hands at this.

Shek: That is indeed big news on silver. I agree about the upside on Monday. Do you think the price will hold? What will be the impact on silver stocks? As a percentage of annual usage 3,000,000 ounces is not a lot of silver so the jump could be temporary.

Silver- be like a duck and let the water roll off your back...dont let these people get to you..if they are wasting their time in here with us "losers" then they are eitherfinancial Mother Teresas or very nervous of the future of their investments...consider this a tempering process, for the taste of victory will be much sweeter...

Donald.... I dont agree that stocks are being bought with the expansion of consumer credit. If that were the case then we would have seen an acceleration in the stock market with the accleration in credit. The big increases in consumer credit in this business cycle were in 1993-4, the market was flat in 1994.

Credit accumulation actually peaked last year. We have seen a slowdown in credit usage this year as the banks and retailers tightened the reins on the extension of credit. And yet we saw a big rise in the stock market at least up until August.

We have seen a big hit on consumer assets since August, maybe a $1 trillion, I have heard lower estimates. And the consumer has responded. Retail sales fell in Sept and Oct. not a lot but most notably in autos. There will be a small reverse wealth effect, the economy will slow. If anything, the stock market drop is best intrepreted as a early recession warning.

But we have had recessions before. If anything, the US banking system is in better shape today to weather a recession than it was in 1990 with all the Savings and Loan overhang.

YESTERDAYS WORLD BREAKING NEWS form London, New York and other global money centers was thoroughly foreseen by Ted Butler nearly six months ago. It was announced Germanys Bundesbank admitted to a policy of LENDING BULLION TO GOLD PRODUCERS and JEWELRY INDUSTRY!!

Internationally recognized analyst Butler make an incisive and insightful review of the heretofore COVERT CENTRAL BANK ACTIVITIES OF GOLD LENDING. This report was first posted at GOLD-EAGLE in August of this year. And consequent to todays monumental revelation by the most conservative Central Bank in all Europe, we are obliged to repost Mr. Butlers study, which rings with logic and clarity in emphatically stating the GOLD LENDING PRACTICE RAMIFICATIONS BY CENTRAL BANKS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE YELLOW METAL TO SOAR IN VALUE.

When Central Banks awake from their stupor & stop giving away their GOLD for free, supply side of metal fundamentals will develop an immediate vacuum & Gold prices will SOAR:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler816.html

NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

Iraqis urged to attack US targets
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971115/news/stories/iraq_30.html

Asia on the brink takes a step back
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/world/world3.html

Why Japan cant find its way
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/feature/feature1.html

Japanese Banks - the doomsday scenario
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/feature/feature2.html

Dark Clouds of over-valuation roll in from the US
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/market/markets2.html

Bet your suit, the business cycle is a fact of life
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/market/markets3.html

Rothschilds Money Market Mans outlook for fixed interest
( even he got burned on Gold shares - see article )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/smart/smart6.html

Secondly, a bailout package could be funded with taxpayer money but
there could be some sales of U.S. treasurys held as collateral to offset realized losses in real
estate and equities. Since Japan holds US$321 billion in treasurys, even hinting at the possibility
of some sales would likely send the market lower, particularly with long term rates hovering at
just over 6%. Figure 1 and Table 1 illustrates the high level of foreign holdings in U.S.
treasurys as of the end of the third quarter.
http://lp-llc.com/cents/jones.shtml

Shek
I spoke today with my nephew in NZ.
He hardly noticed the problem.
Maybe 2 or 3 days of it would make them think a little harder.
Could you please repost that url for the comex report.

Obviously there must be some,
Big fundamental change coming.

There seems to be too many,
Different - seemingly unrelated,
Chaotic occurances happening.

The periods of volatility, that are
Seen when large oscillations of:
---Gold
---War
---Paper assets
---Financial system
---Global weather
---Maniac stocmarkets
Occur, simultaneously.
Normally proceed,
Periods of great change.
IMHO

Steve: See my post earlier quoting George Washington. Forgetting all else in the Iraq story save the insult to send an air craft carrier bearing his name is the height of irony.

There are many in the world that see the folly of the American build up in the Middle East. The addition of the fighter jets from England is making for a situation that could easily rupture the already thin veil of peace which currently is held together by the merest of strands.

Terrorism against the people of the United States and England is now a given. Make no mistake the Holy War seethes already in the Middle East community as a whole. The stupidity in the State Department that thinks it can create hatred for the leader of Iraq is dead wrong. He will become nothing in the final headlines. An act of aggression against the people in Iraq will be intertwined as an act against the religious beliefs of the surrounding states.

The pillar of belief in the area is that the people have already suffered and for far too long. The basis for their suffering is not seen as the leader of Iraq, but the Imperialistic Americans. In addition the Christen acting as a tool for the Israeli is the mass populace belief. England needs no mention, as they will be cast into lot with the United States.

The State Department is going to get the exact opposite reaction that they purvey to the American public.

Barrons has a small article on gold stocks.... very bearish. Page MW7.

The article concludes: "Its tempting to say that gold stocks are a buy. But they have proven to be such losers in a great bull market that we're not quite ready to believe"

Donald: I agree with yourr post. The following quote came from
http://www.strategicinvestment.com as the intro to a current article. I think it sums things up nicely. New paradgim? I think not.

"The public psychology of going into debt for gain passes through several more or less distinct phases: ( a ) the lure of big prospective dividends or gains in income in the remote future; ( b ) the hope of selling at a profit, and realizing a capital gain in the immediate future; ( c ) the vogue of reckless promotions, taking advantage of the habituation of the public to great expectations; ( d ) the development of downright fraud, imposing on a public which had grown credulous and gullible." -Irving Fisher, ECONOMETRICA, Journal of the Econometric Society, Volume 1 1933.

Nick,
http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/get32.exe

Just an excerpt. I suggest the full reading for those of you that are not familiar with this web site.

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html


Gold Mining Outlook
By Steven Jon Kaplan

Such a bullish argument as Mr. Veneroso's is rarely covered by the media, partly because it is vastly outnumbered by gloom-and-doom analysts' commentary, but also because the most well known pessimists are in many cases receiving large commissions from recommending short selling of gold by their clients.

Donald,
I think we will see silver go up on Monday and Tuesday and level off on Wednesday. But Monday could be big for silver.

Tolerant1, you are a bit too tolerant. George Bush made a big mistake in leaving Saddam in Baghdad. He should have taken him out then. The theory in leaving him was that the Middle East would become more unstable. And look how well it has all turned out. I hope we take him out and take him out now. The Iraqi people have suffered too long under his rule. There were widespread threats to his rule following the Gulf War. Had we acted then we could have had a new government then, we can still have one now.
Bush just wimped out, hopefully Clinton, needing to prove his manhood won't stand down.

Collusion?
I feel that there is soon to be a big play.
There seems to be some positioning, by the big boys.

Soros's brother has involvement in a company acquiring many silver properties.
Soros's links to Rothchilds.
Soros working with the Tiger Fund in currency plays.

Tiger Funds recent acquistion of 10%+ of Normandy.
- Major OZ gold play.
Normand's recent acqusition of % of Gutnick's stable.
- Major OZ gold play.
Gutnick's recent acquistion of Wiluna and Eagle Mining,
- Major OZ gold plays.

Newcrests involvement with the Rothchilds.
Newcrest selling its stake in Normandy to Tiger Fund.
Tiger Fund's rumour of being instumental,

In the coming silver squeeze.

This tangled web they weave is happening just in OZ.
What about in all the other countries?

Who knows what other positioning,
These 'power-men' have been up to?
They clearly have intent.

To what purposes, I can only guess.
And place my bets.

arden---

having just read your 0030 post and....

can you 'arden-speak' more often?

!; ) driving-the-smoke-signal-mobile-at-warp-speed---------

Arden,
I would like to thank you for your midnight post. I would missed it. I did a search on all main stream news organizations ( around 3:00AM0 and nothing. It sure is not getting any coverage.

Karlito: Your entertainment based view of the situation and desire for swift military moves predicates a severe lack of understanding as it relates to the umbrella of Islam. This point in history to attack is incorrect.

Your view, which stipulates the stupidity of the Bush administration, is correct. But the United States has proven inept in foreign policy for so many years ( Moscow, China, Cuba, the list goes on and on ) and once again the seeds planted not long ago have escalated into a tree bearing poison fruit for all involved.

Shek
Thanks, I've been trying that url but it always fails for some reason.
Maybe to many people are trying all at the same time.
Steve Kaplan says that his site is receiving more than a million hits per day, and even he questions the numbers.
Normally over 500 a day he quote as bearish.
This could well be the end of the bear.


Sell wave leads to gold's decline
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971114235052027?=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=1468

SHEEL KOHLI in London
Gold prices collapsed to less than US$300 an ounce yesterday and fixed at a 12.5-year low as a wave of selling erupted in the market.
Analysts said volumes were extremely heavy and brokers were difficult to get hold of as sell orders flooded on to dealing screens.
Yesterday, gold touched $299.50 an ounce after being set at the London morning fix of $304.50.
Dealers said the market volatility was so great that it took London exchange dealers 30 minutes to agree to the fixing price, when it usually took just five.
In an unusual twist, dealers said producer selling had been the principle catalyst behind gold's fall.
Stop-loss orders, instituted by investors to trigger sales once gold reachs a certain level, exacerbated the drop.
"Some stops were hit on producer sales, and that triggered an overall fall," T Hoare & Co analyst Rhona O'Connell said.
"We have bounced off $300, but having dropped $6 already, I'm sure we'll come down further."
Steady selling from producers in Asia was detected early on, dealers said.
Investment funds and hedge funds were setting up aggressive short positions, to capitalise on price falls.
Ms O'Connell said it was difficult to gauge how far gold would fall, and much depended on the physical-demand level.
If physical buyers remain on the sidelines the price could fall further, but physical buyers have been known to enter the market once historic lows are reached.

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTED FOR SITE OF ARMAGEDDON
November 13, 1997

The religion writer David Briggs of the Associate Press recently discussed an article in the July-August edition of Biblical Archaeology Review which quoted geophysicist Amos Nur as saying that a major earthquake in Megiddo, the future site of the battle of Armageddon according to the Bible, was not just possible but said, "It's certain. We just don't know when." Nur, a geophysics professor at Stanford University, said that Megiddo is surrounded by active faults that crisscross northern Israel.

Futures World News - November 14, 1997 17:07
METAL GENERAL V%FWN P%FWN

New York-Nov. 14-FWN--THE COMEX DIVISION OF NYMEX TODAY reported that Swiss Bank Corp., who will cease to act as a Licensed Depoistory for the storage of gold and silver deliverable against COMEX's gold and silver futures contracts on Nov. 21, 1997, has informed the exchange that Swiss Bank has been incorrectly reporting the amount of gold and silver eligible for delivery against the respective contracts.

Due to an error in reporting stocks, the Metal Warehouse Statistics from the close of business on Nov. 13 incorrectly showed a total of 3,811,872 troy ounces of silver and 75,284 troy ounces of gold at Swiss Bank Corp. The actual total was 335,203 troy ounces of silver and 43,696 troy ounces of gold.

Today's inventory report, dated Nov. 14, 1997, correctly reflects the transfer of all Swiss Bank Corp. gold and silver inventories to Republic National Bank.

Karlito- Why is Social Security not considered debt? Like debt, it represents a future obligation, secured by law instead of a piece of paper. Like debt, it comes out of future revenue. It seems to me that if we are to ignore SS in the debt/GDP ratio, we might as well ignore it all. Let's call the ratio 0. BTW, with these nice low rates, the present value of said SS obligations is getting bigger, no?

This site will keep you busy for a while....
IRAQ'S SECRET ALLY http://nw3.nai.net/~virtual/sot/russia.htm

rmw:
Not a problem. I suspected as much. You just ran into a little feature at kitco. Just move the day one unit ahead ( and for me set to short notes ) . Submit and you can step across the magical midnight divide.

To avoid loss of life and prevent the spread of terrorism. The UN should lift sanctions on Iraq and as a condition of lifting them require the permanent stationing of inspection personel in Iraq. Any interference and the sanctions go back on. Clearly the Iraqi people are suffering terribly and it is inhumane not to ease the sanctions and then put Saddam's future non compliance as a reason for their re imposition. An attack on Iraq will only gain sympathy for Saddam and enrage the Arab world against us. No thanks but I do not relish terrorist bombings in the US to prove a political point and so Clinton can look tough. There is no unity on this issue and the US is odd man out. In fact, the Russian parliament passed a resolution supporting Iraq. SOLUTION: Lift the sanctions in exchange for permanent inspection team status. If Saddam says no then the onus is on him/where it should be. An attack against innocent women and children by US would be a grave mistake. The current climate is not the same as the unity which existed in 1991. This is not the time to stir the pot especially with the Pakistan incident and the Arab-Israeli impasse.

Nightly Business Report Edited Version 14th Nov 97

Alan Greenspan Warns Investors About Asian Market

LINDA O'BRYON: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan had some words of caution for American investors today about turmoil in the Asian markets. He says it's currently not a threat to American prosperity or to our financial system, but he told the House Banking Committee that the
problems in southeast Asia will noticeably slow the U.S. economy. Dennis Moore reports.

DENNIS MOORE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, CORRESPONDENT: There is a general
consensus that the Asian financial crisis has had an effect on the American economy. Most notably 2 days before Alan Greenspan last went before Congress. But today, he wasn't about to call the Asian market turmoil a salutary event. On the other hand...

ALAN GREENSPAN, CHAIRMAN, FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD: To date, the direct impact of these developments on the American economy has been modest. But it can be expected not to be negligible.

MOORE: The way the global trading system works Greenspan said, slow growth in any part of the world, eventually works its way through the entire system and just how not negligible could the impact be?

JOHN LIPSKY, CHIEF ECONOMIST, CHASE MANHATTAN BANK: The U.S. expansion
will slow to a below trend pace of 1 percent to 1 1/2 percent. The Goldilocks phase of the U.S. expansion is drawing to a close.

MOORE: Over investment particularly in real estate, is at the root of southeast Asia's financial trouble, according to the Fed chairman. Banks were lending long to shaky borrowers while borrowing short from foreign investors. It was a kind of international replay of the American savings
and loan debacle but without, Greenspan emphasized, the same kind of consequences for American banking.

GREENSPAN: Before it is over, there will be lots of other losses recognized but they are nowhere near the orders of magnitude which threaten the financial system of the United States nor any of the
major banking institutions in the developed world.

MOORE: But that to date in Greenspan's testimony isn't negligible either. The Asian and international financial situation is far from stabilized.

C. FRED BERGSTEN, INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS: The overriding
priority at the moment is to avoid a new spiral of competitive currency depreciations. Any such spiral would have enormous effects on world markets including our own...

MOORE: And at the moment, neither the administration nor Congress is ready to bail out American investors or money managers. Dennis Moore, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.



The Iraq Situation Has Traders On Edge

LINDA O'BRYON: An increasingly tense situation in Iraq has traders on the world's stock and commodity markets on edge tonight. President Clinton says he will deal in a very determined way with Saddam Hussein, who has now thrown American arms inspectors out of the country. Scott Gurvey reports.

SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, CORRESPONDENT: Prices moved
higher today on world oil markets as nervous traders reacted to Iraq's decision to expel American arms inspectors. The last time Iraqis rattled their sabers, the floors shook beneath the world's commodity markets, where oil prices rose on heavy volume. But this time, at least so far, the reaction has been subdued.

RICHARD SCHAEFFER, OIL TRADER, ABN AMRO/CHICAGO CORP: The last two
weeks, the volatility and the volume have been down substantially. The market seems to be fundamentally bearish. However, with the threat of some type of invasion taking place, nobody wants to go short the market, as evidenced from the Gulf War situation with Kuwait, when the
market went spiraling upward, even with the small, quick strike.

GURVEY: Perhaps the reasons are the differences. It does not seem possible that Iraq will once again invade a neighbor, cutting off part of the oil's supply. And Iraq itself is only shipping 1 million barrels per day. Under the UN's Oil for Food Plan, designed to be a humanitarian gesture to the regime still under UN sanctions. So, a total cut-off would have little impact. And Saudi Arabia says it will fill any gap. Analysts say, any investors interested in the oil sector should look to refiners.

FREDERICK LEUFFER, OIL ANALYST, BEAR STEARNS: I think the independent refiners have a few things going for them. Number one, if oil prices do weaken, as we expect, the refiners would be beneficiaries because they buy oil to refine it into refined products. But secondly, the
fundamentals of the U.S. refining business have been improving.

GURVEY: For now, the stock market hasn't moved in reaction to the situation in Iraq. But equity experts warn investors to keep their eye on the price of oil.

CHARLES BLOOD, INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, BROWN BROTHERS HARRIMAN:
From the stock market point of view, it's being ignored because the price of oil isn't really moving. Oil is the big lever back in it. If oil moves the lot, you'd see bonds and stocks moving. And when oil doesn't move, the market thinks about other things.

GURVEY: One of those other things is the outlook on inflation. The report on producer prices in October is due out tomorrow. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.



The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.
Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

( c ) 1997 Community Television Foundation of South Florida

Saturday, November 15, 1997

Gold hits the skids

As price of gold sinks below US$300 an ounce, a 12-year low, high-cost producers close more mines and take other drastic steps to survive


 Fund managers pick over golds as bullion drops

By PAUL BAGNELL
Mining Reporter The Financial Post
The price of gold sank below US$300 an ounce Friday, further pressing high-cost producers into drastic steps to ensure their survival.
One such producer, Pegasus Gold Inc. of Spokane, Wash., said Friday it is at risk of not meeting debt obligations after taking a writedown of US$353.3 million on an Australian mine where it is suspending operations. Curtailing mining at other sites is also possible, it said.

Royal Oak Mines Inc. of Kirkland, Wash., also said it was slashing costs to not imperil its ability to continue development of a low-cost mine in British Columbia.
Campbell Resources Inc. of Toronto said Thursday it was closing its Santa Gertrudis mine in Mexico. The company has also delayed development of a new Panamanian mine.
The spot price of gold in New York closed at US$303.70 Friday, down US$4.50 from Thursday.
The price sank to US$299.25 in morning trading. The last time gold closed below US$300 an ounce was Feb. 25, 1985.

On the Toronto Stock Exchange, the gold and precious minerals subindex was down 209.27 points, or 3.1%, and closed at 6535.36.
Once again, fear of more gold sales by central banks was blamed for the selloff. Predictions of low U.S. inflation offered investors another reason to dump bullion.
Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, confirmed Friday it has been lending some of its gold reserves.
Investors took that as a further sign central banks are cooling to gold as a store of value.
Since July, when the price of gold plunged sharply on news of a sale of bullion by the Australian central bank, analysts have pointed to Royal Oak, Pegasus and Echo Bay Mines Ltd. as companies whose existence was threatened by a prolonged period of low gold prices because they are high-cost producers.
On Nov. 4, Echo Bay declared a US$310-million writedown on its mine sites, dropping its asset value to US$483 million from US$940 million a year earlier.
Pegasus said Friday it has halted mining at its Mount Todd gold mine in Australia. The mine has an average cash cost of production of US$370 an ounce.
The US$353.3-million writedown - equal to $8.55 a share - has put Pegasus in breach of terms of a US$150-million revolving line of credit, the company said.
"As a result of this writedown, the company is in default of certain restrictive covenants," Pegasus said.
The company is in talks with its lenders and is working with restructuring specialists to find ways to survive low gold prices.
Creditors, however, could put the company out of business, it suggested. "Absent adverse action by its creditors, the company has sources of liquidity to continue planned operations through 1998."
Meanwhile, Royal Oak said it will cut back mining at its Pamour mine in Timmins, Ont., and its Giant mine in the Northwest Territories.
Mining at the sites will only be done in areas of high-grade ore that can be profitably extracted with a gold price of less than US$300, the company said.
Royal Oak will cut jobs to reduce its spending but did not say how many.
The company is staking its future on the Kemess gold-copper mine in B.C., which it says can produce gold at US$79 an ounce, assuming a copper price of US$1 a pound.
The mine, expected to cost $430 million, is 70% complete.
Earlier this year, Royal Oak closed its Colomac mine in the Northwest Territories and the Hope Brook mine in Newfoundland. It has also put several mine development and late-stage exploration projects on hold.
Both Royal Oak and Pegasus made their announcements late Friday.
Campbell Resources is putting its emphasis on the Joe Mann mine in Quebec, said spokesman Steven Dawson.


Fact and Comment By Steve Forbes, Editor-in-Chief

Take That!

WASHINGTON SAYS it is angry at the IRS for
its abuses. So how did our nation's capital punish
this rogue agency? By boosting the IRS' budget
10%over four times the rate of inflation.

Wake-Up Call

THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION and the
International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) are treating
the Asian currency crisis the way Civil War
doctors treated wounded soldiers: operating with
dirty, infection-spreading instruments. Unlike
those long-ago docs, Clinton & Co. should know
better.

Countries are told to devalue their currencies by
letting them float. At the same time, the IMF
urges them to raise taxes. These prescriptions will
prolong and worsen the disease. The infection is
already poisoning our own markets.

Devaluations are a disaster. They trigger
enormous domestic inflations, hobbling domestic
capital creation and keeping away foreign
investment. They fan protectionist forces,
particularly as the IMF encourages troubled
countries to export their way out of trouble.
Inflation sharply reduces people's standard of
living, inflaming political instability. Devaluation is
toxic for democracy; remember Weimar
Germany.

What's the alternative? We should urge countries
to re-peg their currencies to the dollar. Doubters
will cry that speculators will overwhelm any defense.
That's true only if countries continue to permit
excess money creation.

Contrast Argentina and Mexico in 1994-95.
Mexico took the devaluation drug. Its financial
markets crashed. Inflation soared. Observers
thought that the Argentinean peso would be
swamped as neighboring countries' currencies
came under assault. But then-economic minister
Domingo Cavallo ( now publisher of Forbes
Global Business & Finance, which will come out
next year ) beat back the attack. Argentina had a
currency board, which meant that each peso was
backed by foreign currency, primarily the dollar.
To prevent a catastrophic deflation as speculators
turned in their pesos, Cavallo arranged for
stopgap loans from the IMF ( Argentina was
tossed into a temporary recession because the
IMF demanded major tax boosts as a condition
for the bridge-loan financing ) . Cavallo and
Argentina won. The peso today has the same
value vis--vis the dollar as it did then, and the
country is growing briskly.

What Southeast Asian nations and others that
may get swept up in the panic must recognize is
this: A temporary tightening of credit to defend a
currency is infinitely less costly than the price paid
for devaluation. If in 1994 Mexico had withdrawn
the excess money from its economy, domestic
interest rates might have gone from 14% to, say,
30%. The economy would have gone into a brief
recession. But by defending the peso, there would
have been no lasting flight of capital. Pressures
would have quickly receded.

Instead, Mexico let its currency go into a free fall.
Interest rates approached 100%. Unemployment
rose rapidly. Workers saw their salaries
effectively cut some 50%. Hundreds of thousands
of Mexicans tried to cross our border illegally.

Affected nations should take another cue from
Argentina: transparency. The country made public
its level of reserves each day. Markets knew
there would be no nasty surprises.

And, of course, countries should be urged to
reduce taxes, not raise them.

Skeptics will point out that these troubled Asian
currencies had just been pegged to the dollar and
that the crisis came nonetheless. That's because
their central banks didn't mop up huge inflows of
foreign capital. They could easily have done so by
employing so-called open-market operations,
which the Federal Reserve and other central
banks engage in constantly. In this case, central
banks would have sold government issues. The
money received for these bonds would have been
effectively withdrawn from circulation. Internal
speculative excesses would have been largely
avoided. The politicians of these nations could not
then have indulged their more grandiose versions
of Egyptian pyramids, currently labeled
"infrastructure."

It is not so much a matter of what should be
done, as it is of having the will to do it. The U.S.
needs to take a forceful, constructive lead. Alas,
we can't count on our government's doing so. Not
with this President. Not with this Treasury
Department.

Lesson Learned?

THE U.S. SHOULD NOT DO what it did in
1995 when it bailed out holders of Mexican
paper. The money we were prepared to lend for
that operation could have stabilized the peso at its
old value, which would have quickly stemmed the
crisis. In fact, that $20 billion could have bought
up every peso in circulation in Mexico at the time.

Principles For Progress

The U.S. And The Imf could save
themselvesand

the worldconsiderable headache by applying
four basic principles to economic policy:

 Sound money. This prevents capital flight and
bartering: thus making it easier for people to do
business and

to invest. Unstable currencies retard growth.

 Low taxes. By lightening the burden on
risk-taking, productivity and labor, we get more
of these good things. High-tax countries invariably
lag be-hind low-tax countries.

 Property rights and the rule of law. People are
less likely to invest if their assets can be
capriciously stolen by the government.
Democracy is the best ( if an often imperfect )
guarantor against arbitrary behavior by those in
authority.

 Nonbureaucratic interference in the setting up
and running of businesses. Countries too often
make it difficultif not impossiblefor the
politically unconnected to operate freely in the
formal economy.

All too many times the IMF flouts the first two
principles and ignores the last two.

Karlito: I get the impression that you pay a lot of attention to year over year numbers - debt accumulation for example - and pay less heed to absolute magnitudes. Y/Y debt numbers, as posted by the executive branch, are somewhat at odds with the official increases in public debt, as posted by the Fed. To the tune of 22 billion to 200 billion. A decrease, yes, but hardly in keeping with the Consumer Affairs Commission's penchant for truth in advertising.

Given a serious recession, reduction in capital gains taxes, or more palpable unpleasantness, the projections for future deficits will reverse themselves abruptly.

Absolute magnitude of debt is of little importance if you believe that the patriotic taxpayer will, in a coming pinch, again put his shoulder to the wheel and do what's right for America. Not damn likely ...... as a voluntary effort.

BTW, your comment regarding the value of MS's franchise as function of the size of their user base; was a subtle point, well made.

Perchance the West has once again not seen the forest for the trees. Keeping a wary eye on the wrong bear. The West now fattened for the true sleeping bear. There have been two bears in the woods. The ears of the West steadily listening for the bear that would threaten their wealth. While another bear lightly treads to take their lives and not their wallets.

Does the October stock market tumble suggest
that we are in for a nasty bout of deflation?
Merrill Lynchs Charles Clough thinks so.

The dreaded D word

By Robert Lenzner

IT MAY SEEM FAR-FETCHED to think that a
currency crisis in far-off Thailand and Malaysia
could impact the U.S. stock market, but it
happened. Merrill Lynchs chief investment
strategist, Charles Clough, explains why: The
currency collapse in Southeast Asia reflects
weaknesses in banking there. Weak banking
reflects an excess of industrial capacity. All
pointing toward a slowdown in [worldwide]
economic growth.

Thats bad for stocks, good for bonds.
Corporate earnings are bound to slow, therefore
price/earnings multiples on stocks are too high.
Clough likes bonds because he thinks that
inflation is even lower than the figures show, and
thus inflation-adjusted yields on bonds are higher
than most people assume. Inflation is lower than
you think. Weve added 30% more retail selling
space in the last eight years, says Clough. Just
this year weve introduced 23 new sport utility
vehicles. Too many. Theres [clearly] excess
capacity in many industries. This will lead to
further downward pressure on prices.

Spell it D-E-F-L-A-T-I-O-N. Something that
few living Americans have ever experienced. We
last had serious price declines in the U.S. in the
1930s.

Clough thinks this means 30-year Treasury bonds
should be yielding 5.5%, well down from the even
lower levels of recent weeks. If that happens,
holders would enjoy handsome capital gains
alongside a good yield and absolute safety.

But thats Cloughs best-case scenario. His worst
case? If Japan does not stand behind the loans it
has made to Southeast Asia, then the spillover
from Asia to the U.S. could become more
serious, says Clough.

Worldwide currency devaluation places
downward pressure on yield curves, remarks
Clough. He predicts that the long bond might
yield as low as 4.5% if a global recession
develops from Japans inaction.

The good news from the deflationary trend, of
course, is that it makes it unlikely the Fed will
raise interest rates here, and almost guarantees
that the U.S. economy wont go into an
inflationary spiral.

Clough has been preaching this message for
several years, but the October market decline
gives new strength to his warning.

We [Merrill Lynch] have overweighted bonds
relative to stocks for some time, only to see all of
the financial market liquidity used to buy stocks.
That may be in the process of changing, he says.

Ter, Re your 10:29, I'm with you. What we need are bold, fresh ideas at State. We MUST break the tired old mold and move ahead into the realities of a world we cannot manipulate with threat and bluster.

Shek - Actually the amount of gold in comex warehouse depositories in the 'eligible' catagory is about ONE ounces per contract - THAT IS IF THE GOLD IS EVEN THERE!

As I have said before, I view the comex data as a window to see what is really happening. We will never see the whole picture. So I think the news I posted last night and repeated by many others is of profound significance for gold. The press comments on silver's rally has been about a worry of a short squeeze in Dec silver because there is only enough silver to cover half of the outstanding contracts - HALF C- 50%! - and they are worried? WHAT ABOUT GOLD? There is only enough gold in comex warehouse depositories to cover about TWO PERCENT or so of the December contracts - IF IT IS EVEN THERE! Then how about all of the derivatives - oh I think if I were one of those new shorts who sold gold yesterday as they tried to break 300, I should sleep very well this weekend knowing that I can easily find the gold to cover my short, CAN'T I ??? They don't even know what's happening yet. This news will not be significant until ACCESS opens Sunday night and most commodity traders won't see it until Monday morning - after Asia and Europe have a crack at it - Yes Monday opening on Comex should be really really interesting!

I can only remember being on the wrong side of a short squeeze once many years ago when I was short cattle. They went from limit down at the contract low, to limit up in two minutes - the public never had a chance. If this starts in gold, watch out above.

Karlito: Thanks for your response on the credit card issue. I had seen a post recently, possibly my own, that provided evidence on my position but I cant't find it just now. I will look further when I have more time. You did raise another issue that, in my opinion, has a lot to do with the chimera of this stock market. You said: "But we have had recessions before. If anything, the US banking system is in better shape today to weather a recession than it was in 1990 with all the Savings and Loan
overhang."

The better position of the banking system ( which I dispute ) is the result of FRB interest rate engineering. Rates were driven to impossible lows, forcing retirees, the largest saver group, into a desperate search for income on their savings. With rates at 1.5% to 2.0% savers flocked to stock funds, often in the same banks where their savings accounts were held. A recent survey found that 40% feel the accounts are covered by FDIC insurance against loss! This money poured out of banks and has fueled, along with dubious 401K money, the $6 trillion rise. You suggested the credit card increases are a one time occurrence. Can the savers boost the stock market again? Absolutely not. This mania is going to end in a depression. Alan Greenspan, in his zeal to save the banks, has created a monster that can only end badly. Not only will the banks go, but all of the savings will be lost just as happened in 1933. This time those savings will be stocks.
The banking system crisis of the 1990's is not over, only postponed.

And what of the Great Dragon, whose motives are easily seen in the treatment of young students. Squashed like ants under the lumbering behemoth, would the West have taken action if the students wore T-shirts emblazoned with the words justice, freedom, and family.

President Clinton has allowed strategic areas to be undermined as he has kept the United States and the world focused on their wallets. Australia floats free an ocean apart from her strongest ally. An alliance the United States has treated so lackadaisically since inception. Europe is in the midst of a seething Islamic revival as the Russian bear awakens and flexes his muscles. Central and South America in disarray, wildcards to be sure as 10s of millions live in repressive poverty, each and every soldier there walking the streets with an attentive and wary eye over each shoulder.

This is the new paradigm? I think not. Like I have said many times. "The best way to do something is to do it center stage. Right before the eyes of the crowd.

Things are not ending here people. They are just beginning.

Karlito: On Barrons @ gold stocks: "Its tempting to say that gold stocks are a buy. But they have proven to be such losers in a great bull market that we're not quite ready to believe"

An astute observation belaboring the obvious. No doubt mirroring similar sentiments regarding general equities in the late 70s. In the grander scheme of things; it's too bad the comment was not a banner headline on the front page.

Let us hope that the "strong rally" Freidberg's was worried about is now going to happen. But, will the despirate mines regard any rally as a "god send" and sell the heck out of it?

ANOTHER: Your comments on the Comex actions would be interesting.....
Reminds me of their interventions around the 1980 Hunt brother spectacle.

Arden, the release you posted reminds me of the time I bought a stock based on it's "published" book value. Needless to say my "safe" trade based on the co.'s book value turned out to be a joke. It turned out that the "book value" didn't exist and the company went bankrupt.

Oh, by the way, Friday was expiry day for DEC GOLD OPTIONS, but im sure that had nothing to do with it.................

When the findings of Mr. Veneroso are trumpeted in the media there will be such dislocation in the gold markets. The shorts have a problem on their hands that cannot be resolved. The price of gold will sky rocket.

And the price of gold cannot move $100 in thirty days eh? Think again.

Donald, Your 11:07 comment on the Fed engineered flow out of savings into stocks is, I think, the single most contributing factor to the present inflation in paper assets. By the way, for what it's worth, starting Thursday and Friday, I've had this feeling that I've had only a few times before. It's a mixture of fear and excitement along with a quiet sense of confidence that an investment, in this case gold and gold stocks, have discounted every unknown piece of bad news. It's the sort of investment that my broker says, "You don't want to do that." And then gives a list of negatives as long as your arm. I love it when that happens. The conventional wisdom, even on this site, is that gold stocks will suffer with the coming crash. I don't think so.

Barron's confirmed today that Chase Manhattan lost $160 million in Brady Bonds during the past month. Citicorp is rumored to have large losses also. How many other large losses are not being reported? And to what extent will they multiply as the bear market -- and crash -- continue?

Donald: Good posting at 11:07. You are absolutely right that this will all end with a depression. There is no other possible way for this mania to end.

Carl: Hold your physical metals and do not sell if the price escalates. Use your gold real estate stocks to create wealth. If possible make sure you have wire transfer capabilities in place from your broker and switch into physical assets with each upward move.

Either to increase physical holdings or utilize e-gold to increase your physical holdings. If you get really nervous you can move your gold with a keystroke into your possession.

Use paper to increase physical.

Tolerant 1: Yours of 10:54 says it all. Pondering your statement, it appears as if the total loss of freedom prior to our loss of lives is in the agenda.
Or else, the muslim jihad could appear anywhere in our land of the ( formerly ) free and home of the ( erstwhile ) brave. e. flight 800 and the red mercury bomb possibility.
Can't help but feel a little negative as I peruse the p[ostings of the past two days. What is goin' on???!!!

Donald: I also want to congratulate and thank you for your arguments in the great Kitco inflation-deflation debate, last summer. You were one of the few who whole-heartedly agreed with me that deflation was the greater threat, not inflation. You had great postings on why deflation was most likely.

Now, the deflation is occurring in Asia. And Wall Streeter's are beginning to worry about deflation -- although they still down-play the threat. I still remember your words from last summer. You were one of the leaders analyzing and explaining the way -- well ahead of the pack. Congratulations again!!

Arden and Tolerant1: Given a sudden dislocation in gold pricing, it would be foolish to ignore the potential response of the CBs. They would likely respond by providing "work outs" and "work arounds" that would save the major short players any embarrassment. ..... All in the interest of maintaining orderly markets. Of course.

What did Comex announce after the close?

Earl: The Central Banks work best in the dark. This report from Mr. Veneroso and the news item on the Comex - like bringing a Vampire into the sunlight.

Under the handle of Gloomy Gus, John Hepcat wrote yesterday:

"Sorry to dissapoint you but I am NOT LGB but I sure wish I'd taken his advice a long time ago. George Cole: Thank you very much for responding but it doesn't make me feel much better. How could I have been so stupid to follow the advice at this site but I guess I'm just GULLIBLE."

I don't get it, John. If you *had* followed LGB's advice, that would be merely another instance of following advice at this site, which you now say is a stupid thing to do. Any yet, you wish, so you say, that you had followed LGB's advice; that is, advice at this site. So is it part of your wish, then, simply to do something stupid? If so, then perhaps you have gotten your wish. Several times over.

-Tom

Tolerant 1, Thanks. Your advice is quite similar to what I had in mind. I also like junk silver and a little good old cash is not a bad thing to possess.

On Thursday and Friday, there has been talk that traders have been covering stock market shorts and buying stocks outright -- based on the idea that the out-break of war with Iraq will be bullish. While that scenario worked in 1991, it won't work in 1997. Circumstanses are wastly different now. Mainly because of high book-to-price ratios, low dividend yields, amount of borrowed money in stocks, etc.... These traders will head for the exits immediately, when the hoped-for rally does not materialize. In this way, the developing crash will actually be intensified.

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Found your 07:23. Poetry again. I agree with you that Saddam is playing with us. He did not even have the electronic hardware to shoot down a U-2, but it makes a nice story. Those gadgets are expensive, and those radar guys could only do it once. Would need a new team and new electronics for the next U-2, even if he misses, I would guess. Saddam knows that Israel's situation is untenable, and the US is siding with Israel in a clinch, even when Netyanahu is doing almost everything wrong. I wonder -- has Saddam run out of gold?
Our president is not unstable like some we have had -- but he might do too much grandstanding for local political gain -- and mess up our foreign diplomacy -- what's left of it, that is.
I think only outright war, a Clinton crisis, or a full-blown financial crisis will bring down the markets - in the next few months. Otherwise the market wanders a bit, and rallies into 1999-2000. This market I suspect has alot of strength from all of those baby boomers who are investing regardless how jittery the pros are. However, the tension is likely to raise oil prices. Have noticed that oil and defense stocks have been unusually active this year.
I will try to jump back into the SPX option puts at the next market peak. Good luck on your investing -- I am convinced you are right about the long term outcome -- but the when is the critical matter - now or 1999-2000?

Tsunami or not?
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Image142.gif

Nick ( @Aussie ) : Tsunami post - Looks just like the DOW does now, doesn't it? Feeding frenzy at the hard asset side, instead of the soft asset side.
I was thinking about the Silver situation. If you wanted to reverse the bear in gold, and wanted to raise the odds in your favor -- you would choose silver -- because there are fewer heavyweigths manipulating the market. Then, when your attempt at cornering the Silver market looks like it will succeed, and the gold bear has clearly ended, you switch your focus to gold, and get another big play. There is probably a two month or so delay built into a gold/gold stock rally once the gold bugs like us have jumped in -- more than enough time to get your profits on a silver corner first.

--- Just a thought!

A left wing view of what ails the market






The Witch Hunt and the Crash

We're over the edge of an old-fashioned witch hunt, and people should understand what the stakes are and
what the battle is about. The witch hunt is against organized labor. Its prime target is Teamsters president
Ron Carey. Beyond Carey, targets include Richard Trumka, secretary-treasurer of the A.F.L.-C.I.O., and
John Sweeney, president. Also under assault is Arthur Coia of the Laborers Union. Beyond these labor
chieftains, the target is any progressive leader or radical organizer in the entire union movement.

A couple of rationales are used to explain that all this is not a witch hunt but an entirely appropriate
investigation into improper use of union funds to assist in Carey's 1996 re-election. In Coia's case there
are also charges that he has associated with criminals.

Anyone who watched the Hoekstra hearings, described here two weeks ago, knows well enough that the
Republicans running that show have about as much concern for union democracy and financial rectitude as
the Pinkerton goon squads in the nineteenth century. Short of outlawing unions altogether, they like
nothing better than mobbed-up unions, signing sweetheart deals with employers and taking baseball bats to
the heads of dissidents.

Outstripping the Hoekstra hearings in hysteria has been The Wall Street Journal's editorial page, whose
demented onslaughts on Carey probably emboldened U.P.S. into forcing the August strike. Anyone who
wants to catch the flavor of full-fledged red-baiting should look at the Journal's editorial of October 17,
which linked Carey, Teamsters for a Democratic Union, the New Party, Democratic Socialists of America,
Citizen Action and ACORN in a binding curve of un-American activity ( "simply drifting leftward and away
from the mainstream of the country's life" ) , climaxing the list with the arrest on espionage charges of Kurt
Stand, a staff member of the International Hotel and Allied Workers Union.

A prime function of the cold war and domestic witch hunts was to destroy any serious labor challenge.
Today, the profit system depends on an effective wage freeze, precisely at the moment when labor is
showing signs of life. The guardians of the old cold war compact with business--George Meany and Lane
Kirkland--are gone, and so is the economy that allowed that compact.

Every one of the labor chiefs now the subject of federal probes or kindred harassment presents a challenge
to the free reign of capital. Carey won the biggest strike in decades and has been the most outspoken
opponent of fast-track trade deals. Sweeney has made organizing and the gap between wealth and workers
major focuses of labor. Coia's malodorous associations were of no concern to labor's enemies until his
union jacked up its organizing and became a central player in the most innovative organizing campaign, in
Las Vegas, ever launched by the building trades.

A witch hunt advances methodically. Start with Carey, an indubitable reformer, who with no real war chest
had to fight for re-election against James Hoffa Jr., a man well freighted with criminal associates and
bulging with cash. Harass Carey, and ignore Hoffa, who raised $2 million in unaccountable funds. Now
harass the A.F.L.-C.I.O. leaders to whose project Carey is vital. Now probe anyone trying to build a
combative, God help us, even radical labor movement. Get them on the run. Get them in front of a grand
jury. Get everyone frightened and persuaded that trying to build a radical, combative labor movement is
against the law, which of course it is!

This is a war, and the recent crash reminds us why.

The plunge on Wall Street had far less to do with the Asian markets than with what Federal Reserve
chairman Alan Greenspan said on October 8. In testimony before Congress he warned that the economy
was growing at an unsustainable rate and inflation was a virtual certainty unless job growth slowed. Once
the word "inflation" starts forming on Greenspan's lips, everyone knows that the next shoe likely to drop
is a hike in interest rates and economic slowdown.

So here we come to a truth about one of the "fundamentals" of today's economy. When Greenspan talks
about wages rising too fast ( thus threatening profits ) , what he really means is wages rising at all.

Here, on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is what has happened to real compensation ( wages plus
benefits ) since the start of the Clinton presidency. In 1993 real compensation fell by 0.4 percent; in 1994,
fell by 0.9 percent; in 1995, fell by 0.3 percent; and in 1996, rose by 0.3 percent. By the end of 1996 a
family of four in the median bracket had income 3 percent below that of a similar family in 1989, and just
1.6 percent above that of such a family in 1973. And this in a period when two-paycheck families became
commonplace.

Some further chastening figures, courtesy of Robert Brenner of U.C.L.A., who has been preparing a
study for New Left Review on what the real "fundamentals" are. Here's what "stability" in wages means.
About one-third of the U.S. labor force makes $15,000 or less. Brenner calls them the surplus army of the
employed. True, the overall proportion of the population in the work force is high, but the proportion of
people losing jobs is also at an all-time high. Between 1992 and 1995, 15 percent of people holding jobs
for more than a year lost those jobs; their new jobs, if they found one, paid 14 percent less on average. The
rate of job loss in the nineties "boom" is higher than in the recession years of the early eighties or of
1990-91.

This great boom is the slowest in the postwar period, bumping along at an average of 2.6 percent growth
in gross domestic product between 1992 and 1996. Greenspan and the system in whose service he toils
know that the economy has to run slow, with tight money and austerity in the interests of budget
balancing, because that's the only way to keep wages down. Another way is to cheapen the cost of labor
by introducing workfare.

Here's our fundamental truth. Today's "boom"--a boom in which relatively few have struck it rich--is in
fact a wage freeze. And the minute it looks as though the wage freeze won't hold, the system goes into
shock. Capitalism can't afford a vigorous labor movement. That's the fight we're in right now.

Join a discussion in the Digital Edition Forums.

Puetz:

Watching CNBC, with the sound off, on Friday, I saw one of the parrots pointing to a graph showing the big jump in the Dow when the ground war started with Iraq last time. Unbelievable. Just reinforcement of what you said. Thanks.

Arden and ALL, I found your post of last evening so captivating that I have emailed most wire services requesting more information on this event and why don't they have it is THEIR news. I suggest others do the same. Does anyone have any email addresses for news services, I could use more!
I am sick and tired of the bullfeathers manipulated news. Perhaps we should post a prize for the first one reporting a additional news item on another news service besides the one you posted.
BTW, many thanks, that was a great find and a fine example of what makes kitco worthwhile.

Would you be kind enough to explain the chart you just posted. Thanks

Snoop: It is easy for me to sit in the stands at a stadium and look upon the playing field and tell you the game is football or baseball. As to what is going on, I do not liken myself to a political sage.

"I do not believe in the creed professed by any church that I know of. My own mind is my own church."

Thomas Paine [The Age of Reason, Part One - 1794, Part Two - 1796]

I can tell you this. Watch for the silent majority in the United States to start flexing its muscles. You saw the recent and swift dismissal of an individual that sought to push a wedge between the United States Marine Corps and the very people they are oath bound to the death to defend.

You can be an American now and then, but you are a Marine for life. Pun intended.

Kommissar KGB: I just finished reading last nights postings. You gave me a good laugh!! Your KGB intelligence is indeed very good. How did your spies find out that LGB cleaned my toilets and polished my shoes???

WW: Here ya go;

Futures World News - November 14, 1997 17:07

METAL GENERAL V%FWN P%FWN

New York-Nov. 14-FWN--THE COMEX DIVISION OF NYMEX TODAY reported that Swiss Bank Corp., who will cease to act as a Licensed Depoistory for the storage of gold and silver deliverable against COMEX's gold and silver futures contracts on Nov. 21, 1997, has informed the exchange that Swiss Bank has been incorrectly reporting the amount of gold and silver eligible for delivery against the respective contracts.

Due to an error in reporting stocks, the Metal Warehouse Statistics from the close of business on Nov. 13 incorrectly showed a total of 3,811,872 troy ounces of silver and 75,284 troy ounces of gold at Swiss Bank Corp. The actual total was 335,203 troy ounces of silver and 43,696 troy ounces of gold.

Today's inventory report, dated Nov. 14, 1997, correctly reflects the transfer of all Swiss Bank Corp. gold and silver inventories to Republic National Bank.

Reobear: You may have just helped to set off the next big silver rally. As far as I am concerned the sooner we move to "hard" assets, the more likely we are to survive what is to come.
It will be interesting to see how many of the news services will respond, and post the story. In the US, the news services are generally very unified, and only release "politically correct" info. This would not be one. On the other hand, people are starting to question authority, and demand honesty from our leaders again -- good beginning.

A Fairy Tale for Our Times

Once upon a time there was a world that had many beautiful forests. The forests were of many splendid kinds: there were teak forests, and larch forests, and rain forests, and redwood forests. All were very beautiful and much loved by the creatures who inhabited them.

But one day a fire started in the teak forest, and some ill wind carried it to the rain forest, then the larch forest looked endangered. And the creatures of the many and splendid forests became very concerned and frightened.

We are going to be burned to death, they cried. We have to put out these fires!. And from the West came The Round-Eyed Magician, who was thought to be Very Important, and to the Congress of Creatures of the Forests the Round-Eyed Magician said, If you throw enough of these magic rectangles over the fire, it will starve the fire of oxygen and it will be put out.

And he gave the creatures of the many forests, truckloads, ship loads, plane loads of magic dollar bills. And the creatures very industriously threw the dollar bills over the fires. And for a little time, the fires seemed to abate.

But all too soon the flames leapt forth again. Oh no, cried the creatures of the forest. It doesnt work!.

The Round-Eyed Magician from the West again came to the Congress of Creatures of the Forest, and he looked very disappointed and a little irritated. He said to the assemblage, Did you soak the magic dollar bills in the Pool of Words? The creatures of the forest admitted that they had not. Well, said the Magician of the West, if you soak the dollar bills in the Pool of Words you have much greater success.

My friends, the Pool of Words is almost dry.

Dave in CO: I just noticed in Barron's, that the latest weekly poll of AAII members showed that 45% were bullish stocks, and only 17% were bearish stocks, the rest were neutral. This is one of the lowest bearish readings in the last 10 years!! Also, on November 4th, the price of a NYSE seat rose to a record-high $1.5 million!!

The October 27th mini-crash hasn't phased the bullish herd yet. However, when the bulls finally do panic, we will be close to an intermediate-term bottom. I use the above 2 indicators as contrary indicators. When they flip-flop from the present readings, it will be time to buy stocks. Stay tuned!

JTF: Bingo on the silver to gold move. Silver can jump so fast in one day it is blinding. Thin trading stocks will soar. Moving up to the real money metal, gold, will not be difficult in the very near future.

Don't be greedy my friend and you will be able to take care of your family quite well.

Don't over think the markets when they start to go from canter to full gallop. Switch horses quickly.

I'd like to add my support for registration to access this site. Too much time and space are wasted with anti-gold disputes. I read this site to learn about investing in precious metals not to hear the regurgitation of mainstream anti-gold and pro-Dow propaganda. If I wanted that I could get the original ideas first-hand on CNBC.

Bart, is there a way?

Who would like to make book on this? I predicate positive response from .075 of news services. Folks, there not in business to dessiminate news!
Sorry. I'll go have a cup of coffee and try to get cheerful.

SDRer: An excellent tale. Perhaps Oblio will rise up and one more will be banished to the Pointless Forest with the Evil Count.

JTF
It's nice and peaceful when lgb is resting.

I had read that Saddam has three different types of missles,
That can bring down targets between 60,000 and 90,000 feet.
The first flight that they sent up was manned with three escorts.
The next one up was unmanned.
It's almost like US was baiting Saddam to take a shot.
Any excuse will be taken and acted upon.
At the moment only bluff,
Point and counter-point.

Here are some wild oscillations in the indexes.
To me they say they have unfinished business.
Totally different action from past corrections.

Amex - adv/dec
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Aad.gif
NYSE - adv/dec
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Nyad.gif
Nasdaq - adv/dec
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Nad.gif
Amex - new highs/new lows
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Anhnl.gif
NYSE - new highs/new lows
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Nynhnl.gif
Nasdaq - new highs/new lows
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Nnhnl.gif


Learner
The chart is of gold in 1980
Another time - another era.

Robear
Global Newspaper database:
http://www.uncg.edu/lib/news/

A bomb went off in one of their offices last Sunday @10:30AM. Any relation to this metal scam??? Customer ( s ) not to happy? Mousad?

LGB ( Gloomy Gus ) : I seems that you either have a poor memory or have mis-read my advice for the past half-year. I have been recommending buying gold and silver coins, with a heavier weighting toward silver. Eldorado will confirm this. I had several exchanges with Eldorado saying that the gold-silver price ratio was out of balance -- in favor of silver. Even today, it's still in favor of silver. I never recommended gold shares or silver shares. I specifically said to avoid them ( until after the stock market crash ) for those who asked me.

I never recommended buying gold or silver coins with borrowed money. My only leveraged recommendation was S&P put options. I have frequently said to use only money that you could afford to lose when buying S&P puts.

So if you went broke buying gold shares on margin, it wasn't from my advice. If you went broke from shorting S&P futures, you're a terrible trader. I'm wondering how anyone could possibly have lost money shorting S&P futures during the past 3 1/2 months???? With the DJIA dropping from 8300 to 7572 ( and the S&P making a similar loss ) , you would have to be a horrendous trader to lose money shorting the S&P in a market like that.

LGB, if you lost money, it wasn't from my advice. I just wanted to set the record straight, because you keep making false claims about my recommendations. Please, in the future let me alone state what my recommendations are. I don't want you falsely advertising those recommendations.

I am NOT LGB!!! I am feeling better today but I am still sorry I ever came in contact with this site and most of the people on it. LGB is one of the FEW people here that is not spreading lies and deception. Steve: do you feel no remorse? and if you don't YOU should be ashamed of yourself!!

BPuetz: Do you really think that all metal stocks will crash with the market? I am not of the same opinion. Some of the metal stocks are thin traded to begin with. Secondly people that have waited and accumulated them in glee of the market clanking, hold their shares. A stock, which comes to mind, is Oro Peru. This company is in a fabulous position, not only will it weather the storm in my opinion, but it will turn bow into the wave as lifeboats are known to do off the beach.

A stock I follow which should make a mint PWN, the largest holder of Pawn shops in the United States. I believe they have over 300 locations domestically. I found this stock via The Great Reckoning, penned by Mr. Davidson and Lord Rees-Mogg.

But as I stated earlier, this is what trading and such is all about.

As always I appreciate your posts greatly. Thanks.

BPuetz: Do you really think that all metal stocks will crash with the market? I am not of the same opinion. Some of the metal stocks are thin traded to begin with. Secondly people that have waited and accumulated them in glee of the market clanking, hold their shares. A stock, which comes to mind, is Oro Peru. This company is in a fabulous position, not only will it weather the storm in my opinion, but it will turn bow into the wave as lifeboats are known to do off the beach.

A stock I follow which should make a mint PWN, the largest holder of Pawn shops in the United States. I believe they have over 300 locations domestically. I found this stock via The Great Reckoning, penned by Mr. Davidson and Lord Rees-Mogg.

But as I stated earlier, this is what trading and such is all about.

As always I appreciate your posts greatly. Thanks.

JTF
I turn up when you turn down cos I am an antipodean, That means my feet stick out of my head on the other side of this spinning thing. No, wait a minute it means I walk on ceilings. Have noticed that sometimes Northern hemispherics have difficulty understanding earth spin. I like the mental exercise of watching the dawn and "feeling" the earth fall towards the horizon. The time police, now there's an idea, like the Crash Protection Squad. I've not sold yet, first sell farm then move. I know this sliced and diced format of kitco has advantages, just it is very difficult to chat across the hemispheres and difficult too to scroll back. But that sounds so ungrateful, when really I thank Bart for the forum

Roebear
for papers also try
http://home.sol.no/~thorie/papers.html
Read all about it

Call me stupid, but for those considering hary cary and looking for some sort of emotional sanction here: Paradoxically this is the last place you should come for advice on any subject since this is where your troubles began in the first place. If you are going to leave the planet then at least try to do it with some sense of decorum and nobility ( not to mention good personal judgement ) !

Sorry All: Opps!

A. Goose: Thanks for the Kitco Tip! I thought I had turned into a pumpkin at the stroke of midnight and was the only one who knew it!!

Nick, at Amazon.com a couple of days ago, following threads, and noticed what you might fashion into a leading sentiment indicator: ( remember this is an informal observation, I didnt stop to tabulate ) noticed that the books that were marked 2-3 day delivery and those that were 24 hour were almost overwhelmingly about Currency Crisis.

What people are reading might be a more truthful indicator that what they say ...

Poetical posts...it is remarkable how they lead the mind to consider things in fresh ways...very helpful, for mind and spirit.

editors@interactive.wsj.com

Last night's CNN Money Line discussed the banking situation in Japan. They mentioned that the International Banking Rating ??? Comp. said that the Japanese gov. should immediately start planning for the worst.... ...the liquidity crises has already begun there... almost no major banks are lending even to their best clients.... It sounded pretty ominous. Also,...no magic Nikkei # to start the collapse, they are in it already. Japanese 1 year bills now pay .25% interest!. Also, South Korea's main conglomerates are under water financially, according to this program. S.Korea will be next to go in that region. The Money Line did not try to show the Asian disaster in good light at all. I think they are switching strategy so they can point back and say "we told you so".

For us antipodeans
Lurking beneath the equator

Beware. This verse has a Moral.

When its up
It is not down
When it's flat
It is not round
When its thick
It is not thin
And when you lose
You do not win.

When its black
It is not white
When its dark
It is not light.
When its dull
It is not bright
And when you're wrong
You are not right.

When topsides up
Then bottoms down,
So learn to smile
And not to frown
Be confident
And don't be beat
And never - not ever
Admit defeat.

NICK, LEARNER... The chart you posted shows that only four months after sitting at 300, gold reached 800. Also it seems to reach a plateau around 400+ in Nov 79, but then takes off coinciding with the takeover of the US Embassy in Teheran and soaring after it was obvious that the Carter Administration had no answer for Khomeini. What will happen if we have no real answer for Iraq's blustering?

My one fear is that Slick will try to prove his manhood by acting as Commander in Chief and thinking he has the military smarts to act. Our depleted military is not anything like it was in '91, due to his decisions to downsize. Whatever we do, we had better not come out as the loser, or the dollar won't look so good to observers.

LGB ( Gloomy Gus ) : I'm sorry. I don't have any remorse for your losses. If you bought gold stocks on margin, and went busted, that's your mistake, not mine. I never recommended buying gold stcoks, and I've never recommended buying on margin.

I'm mostly neutral on gold stocks. I don't have a stong opinion one way or the other. Gold stocks behaved poorly during the 1929 stock market crash, the 1937 stock market crash, and the 1987 stock market crash. For that reason ( even though gold shares do look awfully over-sold now ) , I prefer to avoid the shares until after the coming stock market crash.

Puetz, Donald, Carl, Tolerant 1, Eldorado, etc.
I know all of you are correct in your assessment of the current world economic dilemma. However, being an avid banknote collector, your comments concerning imploding economies, deflation, etc. and the effect on the United States of Americal is disheartening to those of us who were hoping for a similar post World War 1-Germany era where about 160,000 different types of privately issued NOTGELD notes were issued, featuring colorful traditional designs, often of folk legend. With the wide cultural, ethnic, backgrounds existing in the United States, we banknote collectors were banking on a similar type setting with pivately issued documents of tender being printed before the impending subsequent meltdown of the economic and financial markets, govenmental bodies, etc., which currently exist and a broad expansion of our collections of colorful currency. Your comments please on the possible occurrence of a similar post-DOW, post-Nasdaq, post-S& P era and the printing of such "Monet Of Necessity" ( Notgeld ) before the ultimate and eventual 'DEPRESSION in the United States of America. Quoting another KITCOITE, as always I appreciate your posts greatly. Thanks.
P.S. My collection of NOTGELD is positioned in the midst of my physical hoarde of gold and silver as a constant reminder of the impending events ahead.

The famous Departure Speech...NOT! I like the first sentence in #5. Who could believe that!! The same people to see gold going to 400 in a heartbeat??


Date: Sun Nov 09 1997 17:56
LGB ( @ Final Farewell, Goodbye Kitco ) ID#315256:
Final goodbye thoughts on Gold, Goldbugs, hardcore Goldbug investor mentality. No
this is not a "cry wolf" exit, this will indeed be my last post.

To understand Gold, and the thoughts of Gold investors I first came to this site back
in June and lurked it till August before posting. ( Hence the "Lurking Gold bug" initials
) I've always had an interest in Gold and Silver, as well as coins, and lately that
interest has been renewed as the metals have become so undervalued. I also believe,
like many investors today, that the stock market has become overvalued and more
risky than it has in the past. The debates on these investment ideas were what I
wanted to engage in here.

I've tried to post in a "contrarian" manner ( albeit admittedly with a hyper critical and
condescending, or satirical tone ) . I wanted to draw out the best arguments I could
for P.M. investment, and the rationale of the DOW bears, Gold bulls. A "Devil's
advocate" method of learning in some ways, but a legitimate tool for trying to pry out
best arguments from other's investment points of view. I admit I enjoyed some level of
twisted humor along the way, perhaps inspired by incredulity at the massive level of
nonsense I was reading here.

The reasons I am withdrawing from this site, have nothing to do with diversity of
views on investment. They have nothing to do with market cycle theories, Bullishness
vs. Bearishness, or the prospects for Gold, Silver, & Platinum. ( Which are presently
quite good in the long term I think )

The comments that follow, are not directed at Gold & Silver investors, nor the well
reasoned investors who diversify into the precious metals as undervalued, security,
etc. I have enjoyed many of the fine people who have explained their arguments and
rationale for such. Instead, the following are directed at the DieHard Goldbug
mentality that I have railed against on this forum. The mentality that obviously
dominates this forum. Namely, the underlying philosophy of hardcore singleminded,
Goldbug investors, who despise both the U.S. and the world economy. It's quite
obvious to all, which posters to whom I refer. Just a few thoughts.

1 ) The "Gold standard" everyone promotes here, would have brought us a post
depression dark ages economy, had we kept it in place in lieu of the monetary
expansion flexibility. A policy that has given us the greatest economy in the world and
the strongest sustained economy ( and society ) in history. Has this completely
escaped the notice of Goldbugs? The greatest wealth for the greatest number, that we
enjoy is a direct result of our economic policies, especially the policies in place in the
time since we decoupled from the Gold standard.

2 ) The mentality that built this great country is the exact OPPOSITE of what
Goldbugs espouse. Entrepreneurial risk takers with borrowed capital built the
strongest, most innovative, most productive economy of all time. These are the
PRODUCERS and ACHIEVERS in our society. The dreamers who needed capital
to bring their ideas to the rest of us. The folks who brought us the technical revolution.
The cutting edge of some of humanities finest achievements in medicine, computer
technology, transportation, et al. The massive investment into Equities has provided
the capital to pull this off. The Naysayers of the Goldbug community apparently
would have preferred the lifestyle of Neanderthal man. After all "If God meant men to
fly..."

3 ) I find the constant stream of negativism here, the Luddite Flat Earth mentality, the
gross twisting of facts and history, the hatred toward their own society, their
government ( which is all of us ) , their country, their own fellow man's incredibly
unprecedented success, to be perhaps the most offensive accumulation of destructive
thinking ever concentrated in one place.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a realist who believes in facing up to problems and solving
them, that's what my career involves. I'm happy to criticize our Govt., economy,
business community, political entities, etc. where it's deserved, and where we can
make positive changes. However, most of the folks here are TOTALLY incapable of
understanding or appreciating what they have, how they came to have it, how to build
on it, or how to enjoy it.

4 ) It's become apparent to me, that this site is mostly a group of extremist
Naysayers, who's sole drive in life seems to be to denigrate every positive
development that humanity has made. You people contribute nothing to society but a
HUGE drag on real progress. I respect those who have built our country, our
economy, our free society. The people who have done something positive with their
lives and made a genuine contribution to progress. I completely disrespect the
negative, unproductive, humanity hating, crises loving mentality I read here each day. I
feel like I have to take a shower every time I read this site. I never saw so many, who
so love wallowing in excrement.

I suppose that the Goldbugs would be happiest if and when we have a complete
collapse of the world economy, the Ecosystem, the Democratic institutions that have
given us the freedom and prosperity we have today.

This isn't going to happen of course, because MOST of humankind is striving for a
better world and contributing toward achieving that goal. They'll make it happen, in
spite of normal down cycles and in spite of a tiny minority of unproductive Naysayers.


5 ) Henceforth, I will not post again here. Sarcastic comments by Kitcoites about this
decision are sure to follow, but I no longer care. I've never backed away from
spirited debate. A free and aggressive exchange of ideas. I used to see this as a place
to exchange investment views and dialogue. I no longer see it as such. ( Though
certainly some fine people do lurk and post here, I am only of course refering my
criticism to the DieHard Goldbugs who dominate the site ) . It's become obvious that
objective rational thought is in extremely short supply here, so discussion has really
become quite meaningless.

Diehard Goldbugs, keep championing and embracing all that's negative in the world
and you shall reap what you sow. You shall create your own reality, in which you only
will live. You are part of the world's problem, not part of it's solution. It's a pitiable
philosophy of life, when one's sole goal is to hope for war, disastor, "meltdown" and
destruction. The rest of us will continue to build, achieve, grow, and embrace the
BEST of what the human experience is all about. Among our family, our friends, the
society and government we are ALL responsible for, and yes, the country we
inherited, and love.

My apologies again to all the many fine posters here, and fine minds to whom my
comments do not apply. To those many others who for so long have been screaming
for my withdrawal, it's not the debate from which I withdraw, I've always enjoyed the
debate. But one is known by the company they keep, and I can no longer justify
spending time immersed in such a depressing garbage heap.

Sadly, off to greener pastures that are not infested with Hoof & mouth worms,

LGB


opine:
One for the Puetz...did you ever believe this one?? He is a man of his words.......Pword?? oh changing you're name doesn't count. I remember that one from K-1 ( before elementary school ) And LGB, re-read this over and over. Why do you come back sooo much. From your #4 you must take 20-30 showers per day or you are knee-deep in Crap.


Opine:
Well said Allen.

Date: Sun Nov 09 1997 19:54
Allen ( USA ) ( All RE: LGB's "style" ) ID#255190:

LGB has a massive chip on his shoulder and has repeatedly ridiculed, denignated and
attacked those who he finds pique with ( at the time ) . It was not his ideas which
provoked many here but his "style". To my observation there was an emotional
agenda which had nothing to do with rationalizations. No doubt LGB is a fine man,
husband and father. Unfortunately in this setting little restrained him from venting his
often abusive speen.

To my mind anyone who gently engages in discussion and dissention will be respected
by most reasonable people. It is to easy to alienate others. Our relationships are more
important than specific areas of agreement or disagreement.

Opine:
The Spudster takes a shot...

Date: Sun Nov 09 1997 19:34
Spud Master ( waiting for the ( third ) coming of LGB... ) ID#288154:
Mikee - don't kid yourself about LGB's "passionate" speech - check the posting times
of his last magnum opus, and his penultimate post: 16 minutes flat to crank out his
"passionate" opus of several pages. Either he's a flawless, god-like typist, with a clear
outline in his head ... or else it was pre-canned prole-feed waiting for the right
moment to dump on us. I am not falling for it for a moment. He's here not to provide
instructive counterpoint; he's here to inject fear, doubt & uncertainty. Whoever's
running him is afraid of the Kitco board ideas concerning gold & the coming market
collapse. We have to be neutralized, silence, ridiculed. The public ***MUST*** not
have another perspective of the BS-world that Greenspan, Rubin and the Clinton
carpet-bagger team have built. The public's opinions ***MUST*** be controlled.
Control = power. The loss of a Free Press in America really was the beginning of the
end.

Opine:
Puetz MAKES A GOOD CALL!! You have to make one once in a while.....

Date: Sun Nov 09 1997 19:02
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:
Mikee: Don't be fooled by LGB. He threatened to leave Kitco once before with a
passionate speech, only to draw sympathy from a number of Kitcoites. It seems he's
trying the same sympathy play again. Some of us have long memories. LGB reminds
me of a neighbor kid from my youth -- who picked up his toys and left whenever he
didn't get his way. It seems LGB is just off pouting for now. He'll be back with a new
handle shortly.

Opine:
The Mighty Miro speech...oh my!

Date: Sun Nov 09 1997 18:45
Miro ( @LGB, freedom, loyalty, and we are the government ) ID#347457:
LGB, I would like to say a few words on this subject. I came to the USA 18 years
ago, easy to remember - my youngest son was born one week after we landed at
JFK airport. I am Czech by birth, grew up in that country while it was under
communist government. I left and came to the USA not because I wanted to improve
my standard of living but because I wanted my kids to grow up as free people. I left
everything behind, my culture, my language, my friends, my family, every "material"
possessions. I came with pair of jeans and t-shirt. More like most founding fathers it
was freedom I was looking for. I did not get my citizenship by birth, but I was proud
when Ive got it and would do anything to protect it. Dont anybody try to tell me that
I may not understand because my roots are not here. I am here by choice and I know
how it feels when at your kids swim meet flag goes up and national anthem is played.


LGB, in those 18 years I saw alarming trend of more and more freedoms taken away
from me. Freedom means you can make your choices and I saw more and more
choices taken away from me and done by government. Whats even worse, if you
dont like the choice done for you by your government, you are labeled "extremist"
and government will use its power to enforce it. I see so many things which more and
more reminds me government I grew under and ran away from to guarantee that my
children would know it can be different. "We are the government" was traded long
time ago for "just keep my pocket and stomach full and you can by my vote". I may
be much more sensitive to it because I am still a newcomer chasing my freedom
dream.

LGB, freedom and loyalty to you country is not expressed through big words. Just
look at any politician - they can give you a big word speech any time you ask for it.
Freedom is maintained and loyalty should be judged by individuals deeds. You can
not judge that from posting on Internet.

Opine:
Good Call Here...tossing it in just as a reminder...

Date: Sun Nov 09 1997 20:04
Mikey ( @home ) ID#347332:
TO Shek;
Gold bout' to break below $300.Hope you got your money ready.
Not quite $1 yet but its getting closer.

Opine:
And then the Bad call...different Mikes??

Date: Sun Nov 09 1997 18:34
Mikee ( @Home ) ID#345247:
I think you guys are wrong. LGB won't be back. His speech was too passionate. I for
one am sorry to see it happen. Cest la vie, LGB.


Opine:
Voice of Reason...thanks for all you're input JTF...it's good...it's profuse...but good ;- )

Date: Sun Nov 09 1997 18:33
JTF ( @Home: LGB gone? ) ID#57232:
All: I missed all the commotion with LGB. I'm disappointed that the new, improved
LGB did not last. Some of what he said was of value -- it does help to have
counterpoint with too many goldbugs and gloom and doomers, myself included.
However - personal attacks are not appropriate, and we should all try to be
consistent -- to try our very best only to tell the truth. I for one will apologize if I
screw up.

Opine:
Right from the Horses Mouth ( directed at RJ a while back ) ...or is it the other end?? btw, that aka H.A. made some funny posts. That was some of you're best work LGB.

Date: Sun Nov 09 1997 23:07
 ( Boo Hoo ) ID#2082:
LGB - Don't let the door hit your butt...

OPine:
Bordering on Insane...eh Spud?

Date: Sun Nov 09 1997 18:00
Spud Master ( To LGB ) ID#288154:
You have been well paid, no doubt.

O.K. Now I am bored and I will stop and NEVER, NEVER, NEVER post on Kitco AGAIN...for as long as I live. And I will NEVER, NEVER, NEVER utter the LGB word again. I swear by the Almighty Creator!!

AWAY...for EVER........or until the rain stops...which may be never...







;- )

Donald: You said "The better position of the banking system ( which I dispute ) is the result of FRB interest rate engineering"

Thats one of the jobs of the Fed, to protect the integrety of the banking system. This isnt any kind of a cabal or conspiracy, the economy is better off if the banks are healthy. Thats not always an easy task as the banks are often their own worst enemies.

Then you said: "Rates were driven to impossible lows, forcing retirees, the largest saver group, into a desperate search for income on their savings."

I am sorry, I can't feel sorry for the greedy geezers who got used to 10-15% rates of return doing nothing with no risk. Again, the market worked.... a healthy growing economy requires the transfer of wealth from the risk averse to the risk seeking.

Then you said:
With rates at 1.5% to 2.0% savers flocked to stock funds, often in the same banks where their savings accounts were held. A recent survey found that 40% feel the accounts are covered by FDIC insurance against loss! This money poured out of banks and has fueled, along with dubious 401K money, the $6 trillion rise."

I don't know whats so dubious about the 401K money. Again what we have seen is a shift in who is responsible for individual retirement. Companies have abandoned their paternalism and left it to the individual. This is a good development, not a bad one and given the demographics of the baby boom generation, the flood of money into 401k is only going to get bigger over time, not smaller..... postponing any depression or destruction of savings for at least another 10-12 until the front end of the boomers begins to retire.


Then you wrote:
"You suggested the credit card increases are a one time occurrence. Can the savers boost the stock market again? Absolutely not. This mania is going to end in a depression."

You don't need credit card boosts to the stock market, you have demographics which are much much stronger and longer lasting. And you don't need to have a depression when you always have a central bank that is willing to be there as the lender of last resort. It takes a lot of policy incompetence to create a depression. The last one needed bad tax policy, bad monetary policy and bad trade policy. Trade is still very free despite last week's defeat of fast track, fiscal policy is become more responsible as the deficit falls to its lowest level in a generation and Greenspan gets good grades for prudent monetary policy.... so where are we going to get the policy mistakes to turn a possible garden variety recession into a depression?

Then you said: "Alan Greenspan, in his zeal to save the banks, has created a monster that can only end badly."

Thats his job to save the banks from themselves, I am glad he has a certain amount of zeal for it. I don't see how it can end badly

You said: "Not only will the banks go, but all of the savings will be lost just as happened in 1933. This time those savings will be stocks.
The banking system crisis of the 1990's is not over, only postponed.

Prehaps postponed, but postponed for at least another decade. The discussion by Putz on Chase and Citibank taking losses on Brady bonds are
a joke, they lose and make those amounts in a day on their trading desks alone.

SDRer how goes the SDR analysis? I have just woken, and am preparing an overview,rather than take up bandwidth, have you posted an e-mail address I can forward it to?

I must say goodmorning to my NZ mate. G'mornin' Aurator. How was tou're trip to Fort Knox? Did you encounter any troubles?? ;- )

and good morning to Nick ( A ) ...or is it good night...do you have a bed-roll next to the puter?? btw, good poem of recent.

away...for good now...maybe...no really...perhaps....no probably...or most likely...hmmmm...i just don't know...


EB: Great job!!! LGB has a short memory about his promises. Thanks for reposting the great lie from LGB.

Steve puetz: I'm afraid I disagree with you on the question of deflation vs. inflation. To me the deflationary scenario implies that currency based assets such as bonds would still be a reasonable investment which is incongruent with you theory of total collapse. Let's start by looking at what has created one of the most spectacular speculative booms in history:

With the general general background of gold loosing favour as a reserve asset ( encouraged by CB's ) investors have been left little choice but to turn to currency-based paper assets. The flight to currencies from gold started way back in the 1980's. The fundamental flaw is that the man on the street does not understand the implications of this flight to currencies. We tend to think of currencies only in terms of exchange rates. We do not stop to think of the implications of burgeoning currency demand. The best indicator of this is turnover in world currency markets which has increased 8-fold since 1983. Inflation is the indicator of the supply and demand relationship between goods and services and currencies. The key is that increased demand for currencies and currency based assets ( such as bonds and stocks ) at the expense of gold drives down the price of goods and services. A corallary of the supply/demand relationship between goods and currencies is that if there is rampant demand for currencies, the price of goods and services must fall. This explains the "New Era" economic paradox of high GDP growth with declining inflation.

The above process has been amplified by the EMU plan. The European politicians were faced with declining currencies in the face of fiscal austerity targets they could not achieve. There only hope to achieve the agreed GDP and inflation targets while maintaining strong currencies was to drive down the gold price, thus closing the door on gold as a reserve asset and encouraging the flight to currency assets. The beauty of this approach is that it fosters lower inflation ( due to currency demand ) and stronger currencies at the same time. The spill-over into dollar demand is what has fueled your "Bull market of the century" and created "New Era Economics". It's was brilliant economic engineering until Asian countires with exchange rates pegged to the dollar started to fall of the bandwagon.

So this artificial reduction in the gold price of the last three years is the direct cause of the speculative boom and the final collapse which you so accurately predict.

So let us now examine "New Era Economics" in reverse. If you agree with me that the flight to currencies has caused the boom, then the flight from currencies and currency assets ( bonds, stocks etc. ) will cause the crash. If investors are selling currency based assets the only safe haven is tangible ones - oil, precious metals, artwork, postage stamps, agricultural products and other commodities. The second stage of "New Era Economics" will be one of decling GDP growth with rampant inflation. Investors will be getting out of currency based assets in favour of tangible ones.

The only chance of deflation I see is if the CB's manage to keep the system afloat - like the Japanese have done since 1989. Here they keep the deflationary scenario alive, thus convincing the populous to buy government bonds and not sell their currencies. Deflation is the scenario of financial market stability, not an all-out crash. I still don't see how you reconcile the two.

I do feel the argument is somewhat academic as either way the tax-payer picks up the same tab. It is only the form of measurement that differs. However in the deflationary scenario politicians get to keep their jobs!!

To Tolerant1: Thanks for putting up that link to the "Gold Mining Outlook" report by Steven Jon Kaplan. I agree with most of its contents.

EB
What a good sugestion
Off to kip .....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

ps
Seems like you can cut and paste quite sharply.

It amuses me to see others here,
Who can put a lengthy, rational, baiting, dialogue,
Together in quick smart time.
40 wpm or better, plus with that innate ability,
To heckle, and draw on the attackee,
With more spirited discourse.
And the rapidity to which they can change names, id's or ego's.
One smart fellow,
He could always get a job with the gov't, I'm sure.

Talking in five languages out of the corner of his mouth. - LGB


.............zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz's....zzzz's...zz's...............

To: Aurator@13:17

Good morning. d2@ix.netcom.com.
I too am putting last puzzle pieces in place.

To: Nick@Aussie

Nick that was in the Financial/Economis section Amazon.com.
I've printed out "When its up..." Calling "Reality check", posted were it will be viewed first thing! Thnx!

Here is a transcript of the Lou Dobbs interview that steady referred to-- http://cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/97/11/14/mlld.03.html It's short, and a good read. Also, here's one to bookmark-- http.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/ This URL has a listing of all CNN programs and their transcripts.

I CAN'T HANDLE THE ISOLATION!! I NEED MY MTV...uh...er...MY KITCO!!!!

You can not believe the pain I've endured being kept AWAY from you, my Kitco freinds. I now trust that I may always make the great call and never cast the first stone. Please, ALL KITCOITES!!! WELCOME ME BACK WITH ARMS STRETCHED WIDE AND LIPS PUCKERED!!! I AM GONNA KISS YOU ALL SMACK ON THE KISSER!! YOU WILL NEVER BE W/O MINE SOUND REASON, LOGIC, KEEN MARKET SAVVY, AND RAW HANDSOME GOOD LOOKS.

AWAY!!! YEAH!!!!



I DA MAN!!!

kiss me oh cherokeeee!!! obsidian loving amigo!!! seeker...and heeler...good fruit...oh my!

Well hell! Let's try that again! Dobbs interview-- http://cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/9711/14/mlld.03.html>http://cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/9711/14/mlld.03.html For CNN transcripts-- http://cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/

Last try http://cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/9711/14/mlld.03.html

The mainstream press is picking up on the Japanese Doomsday scenario. Attached is an article in the AFR

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/feature/feature2.html

By the way, there was a bank run on Bank Central Asia in Indonesia yesterday. Apparently, based on some unfounded rumors. Bank Indonesia had to step in. People are starting to panic.

Carl & Tolerent1: My 2 centavos. IMHO gold stocks are important to hold in the taxable part of my portfolio. Their volatility assures me of offsetting losses in years when I must sell my blue chips at a gain, then gains the years I need the leverage. Years like this one are problematic, as the temptation to roll some over for paper losses is tempered by the anticipation of having even more gains next year.

All you Kitcoites have been saying mean hurtful things, and I am forced to sue all of you. It has caused my shoes to fall off and I lost my glasses.

Roebear is totaly correct.
We need to rally around getting news out on this and other news items that support the coming rally. The news media will not include these stories unless they are pushed to do so. I still haven't seen a story on the silver shortage that caused the rally thursday. The CNBC coverage amounted to one chicago pit fellow ( after the close on thursday ) saying oh yes, I had to do a little research on silver to find out why prices were rising ... it seems there is a shortage in the warehouse. I haven't heard a word since. Right on, Roebear.


Roebear ( @arden and all ) ID#403267:
Arden and ALL, I found your post of last evening so captivating that I have emailed most wire
services requesting more information on this event and why don't they have it is THEIR news. I
suggest others do the same. Does anyone have any email addresses for news services, I could use
more!
I am sick and tired of the bullfeathers manipulated news. Perhaps we should post a prize for the first
one reporting a additional news item on another news service besides the one you posted.
BTW, many thanks, that was a great find and a fine example of what makes kitco worthwhile.

"My apologies again to all the many fine posters here, and fine minds to whom my
comments do not apply. To those many others who for so long have been screaming
for my withdrawal, it's not the debate from which I withdraw, I've always enjoyed the

debate. But one is known by the company they keep, and I can no longer justify
spending time immersed in such a depressing garbage heap.

Sadly, off to greener pastures that are not infested with Hoof & mouth worms,

LGB"


and more tidbits...


the more famous line:


5 ) "Henceforth, I will not post again here".


hmmmmmmm.....or...one of my personal favorites...


"I

feel like I have to take a shower every time I read this site. I never saw so many, who

so love wallowing in excrement".


"You people contribute nothing to society but a
HUGE drag on real progress".

Is this all out of context??...i don't remember ;- )

"However, most of the folks here are TOTALLY incapable of
understanding or appreciating what they have, how they came to have it, how to build

on it, or how to enjoy it".

"Don't get me wrong," " I'm happy to criticize our Govt.," " I" "so love wallowing in excrement". " I completely" "have to take a shower " "This isn't going to happen of course, " " I " "so love wallowing in excrement". "5 ) Henceforth, I will not post again here. "


it's all about Cut&Paste, baby...;- )

away...to look to the past to see farther ahead...pointing my arrows of peace and harmony...oh my

Sol:

I feel your pain. You lost your shoes and glasses but I lost my shirt. And it was -20 wind chill here yesterday.

For gold fund enthusiasts ( or masochists ) the Eaglewing page has been updated for last week, blood and all.
http://www.eaglewing.com/compare.htm

Thanks A.Goose, All, let's not just sit here glued to our monitors complaining about the slanted news coverage. Let's do something about it. Grab that Comex news URL and post it right in their FACES on their news wire emails! Or do we all just sit here cogitating?

How come da gold she fall down like my pants?

On another topic---Today's Financial post has an article which mentions a report that the absolute bottom for gold--worse case scenario-- is U$147.

Unfortunately no details of the report are given. Not a good forecast for an economy ( and newspaper ) that relies heavily on gold production.

Sorry I didn't get to play much guys. I told my coach to keep me on the bench because I was scared. I didn't want to meet the ShaQ on the court for fear of getting slapped around.

http://www.nba.com/

Roebear, A.Goose--I suggest a Gold Star for the first poster who finds the reference. Where's Donald? Connecticut got hit pretty hard by the winter storm, maybe it knocked his computer out. Clearly a PLOT by anti Gold forces.

Yep, that's right EB, that's just what I said! And then Moron's came along claiming I was 8 other people. ( Reminds me of when everyone was just SURE I was "Hepcat", I yes I loved it when Nick was saying things like "His verbiage can't be hidden" and all that delicious conjecture. Gawd, I was laughing so hard how could I give this comedy up?? )

So I broke my silence, and decided "What the hell" if they can't STAND to let sleeping dogs lie, than folks like Pword, Spud, DaveinCO, Tolerant, Panda, Mooney, et al, will be stuck with me PERMANANTLY!

BTW, you want any of that bet?

I think you are being told you have the wrong article of clothing on. Try the skirt ( basic black mini ) . And hike it up a little sometime next week. Wait for a slight bull attack before trashing them below the 'new and improved' low. And when that happens....ugh...for gold....good for mini's...

300 is just tooooooooo perfect...to planned...re-read Glenn's post last night. It is the best of the week by far.

away...to wait...dum, dee, dum...
obstacleless

LGB - I did not see you're bet post, sorry. Please restate so I can make up my mind. I am fond of gambling. ;-0

away...to grab some chips
etting

EB, I know you're obsessed with me and all, having gone to all that trouble with this morning's posts to repeat each and every phrase of my "Goodbye" speech complete with comments and follow up commentary. Now in the interest of fairness and equal time, I'm just SURE you'll also be posting all of Mr. Pword's proclamations of the past 3 months. You know;

CRASH is coming on the day of Eclispe, uh I mean withion a few DAYS of the Eclispe, uh, I mean the FUll Moon AFTER the Eclispe, I..uh I mean a few DAYS Of the Full Moon, well make that the NEW MOON after the eclipse, no wait, ummm Halloween after the Eclispe, uh I mean definitely by the end of October..uh I mean definitely the week FOLLOWIng the end of October, Uh I mean the next full MOON uh uh uh I mean a few DAYS from the full Moon uh I mean...well there WILL be a crash, I promise I promise!! Oh what thge hell, I'm just here to make money for my clients and all with out of the money Puts, uh huh uh huh, and accuse LGB of being other posters, well without the balls to back my mouthing off with cash though when he challenges my silly assertions...uh huh"

You will be so kind as to continue you're re-posting services for others won't you EB? Or does your love affair extend only to me?

My "bet" post was addressed to "Pword", Nick, Spudbuster, Mooney, DaveicCO, and all other Moron's who were just SURE that I was "Karlito" ( see last Monday's posts ) because after all, Pword said so! And then yesterday, I was "Gloomy Gus" ( well today too if you listen to "Pword" ) .

So my proposition is simple. If any ball less wonder like Pword, yourself, et al, would like to put their money where their mouth is, I'll be happy to wager $50K, $100K, a Mill...whatever figure you might name, that I am NOT Karlito or Gloomy Gus nor have ever posted as same. We can give the REAL Karlito and Gloomy Gus 10% each of the bet and 10% to the webmaster for verification eh? SHould be easy to arrange.

My challenge is out for all you "Geniouses" . However, none will take it of course because they know their silly conjectures are precisely as aaccurate as their market analysis and market calls.

November 15, 1997
Asian markets crisis not seen as threat to Europe

LISBON, Nov 15 ( Reuters ) - European Monetary Institute President Wim Duisenberg said on Saturday that he foresaw no knock-on effect for European economies from the current crisis in Asian financial markets. "What has been very remarkable is that throughout this crisis, internally in Europe exchange rates have not moved ( significantly ) at all, which is a demonstration of the strength of the European Union," Duisenberg told Reuters after attending a business seminar in Lisbon.

Asked if he expected to see any knock-on effect for Europe from the crisis in Asia, he said: "No. Not at all." He also said he expected to see no impact on preparations for the launch of European economic and monetary union ( EMU ) in January, 1999 if the Asian crisis continued.

"I think we can weather that storm," he said. The Frankfurt-based European Monetary Institute will take part next year in assessing which countries qualify for the launch of the European single currency, or euro.

Duisenberg is a contender to head up the future European Central Bank which will guide monetary policy in the euro zone.

Karlito: I am a bit confused by your economic philosophy. You advocate , as a function of government, "the transfer of wealth from the risk averse to the risk seeking" and at the same time "free trade" . That is a bit of an oxymoron, a product of the Marx-VonMieses School of Economics it seems.

Further, you describe one who managed to save money during the 70's and 80's, one who was earning 12% on his Certificate of Deposit during an 18% inflationary period and suffering a 6% real interest rate loss as a "greedy geezer." Is there something unethical about wanting not to be burden on your children? About paying for your own long term intensive care if you needed it? About leaving a small inheritance to your kids if you do not? Is it the job of the Fed to steal that money to protect the country club memberships of gunslinger bankers and secure private school educations for their kids?

That money the Fed stole from the "greedy geezers" went to bail out oil patch speculation in Texas, outrageous governmental mis-management in Brazil and Argentina. Condo overbuilding from coast to coast. Why did the Fed not regulate that activity? What did the bankers loose? How much did Donald Trump have to pay? If their wild schemes work out they keep the profit. If they loose, just stick it to the "greedy geezer", he can pay. Has America come to this?

The world has already changed. The adjustment process has started. The devastating resolution of this crisis is close at hand. The events about to occur will end this kind of economic thought for many generations. No one will be spared; even those here at Kitco who see it coming, even myself. But we will suffer the least and help the rest to rebuild and survive.

Roebear, do you know where on the www you can find the historical levels of precious metal stocks? Since Swiss Bank Corp. is only one of 6 depositories ( as I understand it ) , what type of totals are we talking about in both gold and silver?

Thank you.

November 15, 1997
Albright praises, coaxes Swiss on Nazi gold

BERN, Nov 15 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on Saturday praised Switzerland's "courage" in confronting the difficult issue of Nazi gold but urged continued efforts to bring this "painful period" to an end.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/SWISS-HOLOCAUST-ALBRI.html

if the comex stocks are accurate as reported
by arden.....

if you have been buying gold and silver calls
for a pittance.......

where would you now be sitting, waiting on mondays
opening bell???

hell yeah............the cat-bird seat, the cat-birds seat!!!

eb, hep, lgb, etc....enough diatribe......the peace-pipe-is-lit,
----with-killer-sh!t--take-a-hit--
------knowledge-and-giants----smoke-their-"stuff"---awaken-----NOW-----

hey earl-----where you been? glad to see you posting........

cherokee!; ) hang-gliding-with-pockets-full-of-"worth-less"; ) -pm-options-; )

Amidst the currency chaos, mounting debt debris and stock market turmoil ravaging all-Asia, a voice emerges which goes to the core of the problems. John Kutyns observations and insights ring with Churchillian logic and clarity. In painful detail he paints the problems plaguing Asia... and with oracle eyes he foresees the havoc to be wrought before economic stability may be restored. His poignant observations regarding Japans forced action in US Treasuries and Gold will soon prove to be prophetic:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn111597.html

Based on the bearish trends in the DOW lately, a reversal of trend on New highs to new lows ( in comparison to where we were a few weeks ago ) , the extensive and sustained breaks below moving averages, the left over jitters from the Asian crises and continued financial institution problems in Japan, the break of the 15,500 Nikkei support level this week, and the typical historical DOW patterns during early Fall/winter, I believe the DOW will languish in a volatile but narrowly tarded corrective phase until year end with no sustained breaks above 8000 and no sustained breaks below 6500.

This being the case, I remain on the sidelines wating to average in below 6700. The DOW will end the year close to 7600.

Gold is in it's final leg down and will soon reverse direction a la George Cole's predictions and fundamental analysis ( which I respect ) .

Silver will conitnue it's run up and end the year substantially higher than it is presently. Perhaps in the $5.40 to $5.80 region, with enormous gains to come in 1998/1999.

two ethernitic lovers, eb and lgb.

soon to be together in the flesh

as they would both have it!!!
a full moon, a lonely beach, a bottle of vino, and lgb and eb entangled
with lustfull longing for all to see.

who you gonna be, mr or mrs eb or lgb? and kiddos? lgeb? leg? elbg, ebb??

let's take suggestions, ok?? ok. all comers, let's name their future
children.

thanks in advance

a friend of the family

Auric: A good individual never need ask for forgiveness nor apologize for trying.

Nick. Shek

Computer malfunction in NZ banking system was minor. As far as I can gather a change in the software from a batch to individual processing affected a run of payments for government salaries. The new software had a glitch ( unlike stuff I develop ) and the processing was cancelled and run again on old system. There were few government employees who were even aware of the glitch, as the re-run was done within a matter of hours, everything was hunky dory by morning.

Forgot one extremely important part of the serious previous post on predictions, just made re DOW, Gold, Silver, etc.

That is, the progostications of Pword and Tolerant1 of an imminent crash occuring in DOW will most certainly NOT happen, and, as always, I remain willing to back this particular prediction with a 5:1 wager with Tolerant or Pword. ( DOW 5000 indeed!! )

Cherokee: What makes you so confident that gold and silver will put on a great showing on Monday? I hope you're right because it feels like this price supression will never end. Do you think then that we have seen the lows?

You're not foolin ANYone with that "Anybody" post Nick! What'sa matter, you jealous?

Right on, Anybody! Does  love only LGB? :- ( Tolerant1, Pword, Spud, Nick, Miro, Cherokee, and the rest of us might get jealous.

Cherokee, your 15:27 Native American wisdom prevails. I'll revert back to my normal good humor now as all I REALLY want is to talk moolah, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and the markets as a whole! If only the monkey chorus would stop tweaking my neuotic side eh?

OK, gimme a hot off'n that peace pipe. Gooooooos stchuf me man. Tolerant? Toke o' this? I know you like the stuff ( Cough choke... sputter, LGB ain't used to it thought )

OK on a serious note than, Silver going up Monday, yes. Why Gold though? I think it has one last downtick left in it's poor downtrodden soul.

P.S. Pword, I have a peace plan. Shall I make the proposal for it? We can beat out the record on the Bosnian situation, with diplomacy....

I found a place ( FWN news ) which indicated that total silver stocks are around 550,000,000 ounces and total gold stocks are around 500,000 ounces. Therefore, the Swiss Bank Corp. misstatement of silver stocks by 3.5 million ounces and gold stocks by 32 thousand ounces is not going to be that big a deal ( at least not as big as it first looked, by a long shot ) . So, I wouldn't exactly jump on gold or silver on Access Sunday night.

We will break $300 this week.

British lawyer claims 30 year affair with Clinton. In therapy for "sexual addiction". Oh my. http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/politics1_21993.html

Tyler Rose, could you post the URL for the site claiming silver stocks above 550 mil? Why are all other reports coming in at under 200 M?

The continued value of gold in dollars is a myth that has not seen it's inevitable end. For those of you that think the oil/gold relationship is a figment of the writer's mind I suggest you think again.

Please, compare something of value, gold, backed by the ages, to something, which is real, rather then the statists figment standard paper, the dollar, which is backed by paper.

Thank you.

cherokee cat-bird seat? translation please

Lets try again. http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/politics/111597/politics1_21993.html

I made the comparison already with real world purchases of real world goods in my specific situation Tol. Namely, the home I purchased, the auto purchased in 1980, a gallon of gas and auto insurance that same year, certain food items, a diamond engagement ring, etc. etc.

In every single case, Gold ends up being worth somewhere between One FOURTH to one EIGHTH the value it had in 1980. You'd have to look very hard to find something so totally devalued by inflation ( during this "Non inflationary" era! )

No, I'm afraid Gold not only has been the worst possible investment in the past 18 years, but also the worst possible form of monetary insurance.

If the Dow behaves over the next 8 years the way the Nikkei has behaved over the past 8, it will be at 2975.....

There is still risk in the market. Yes, I hope all goes well for the world economically. If I see a man with cancer, is it negativism if I believe he should get operated on, and not play touch football, practice positive thinking, and commit himself to an optimistic frame of mind? I believe hard times are a'comin'. I hope not.

Well, perhaps the world can slog through and enter the golden age of long-term prosperity, I don't know. Honestly, I have been so sure that things would crumble that I have not even been open to the other possibility. Perhaps I need to adjust my outlook.

FYI - I am collecting email addresses of responsible, reasoned Kitco posters. I am setting up an emergency backup site, for use only when Kitco goes down. If I get this set up, I will send the URL to known posters next time Kitco goes down. This emergency temporary backup site will be for use only when Kitco is down and will be characterized by the enlightened glow of utter civility. Those few individuals, perhaps in earlier and formative stages of personal growth, who demonstrate that they do not grasp such a concept will not be notified if and when the site is relocated to purge itself of such dross.

With affection,

NightWriter aka 2weeks aka 2 aka ( on occasion ) Granny

Always fancied catbirds, will let you know how I like the seat!

223: Think in terms of survival. Your problem will not be so matic. It is better to have something to tax then nothing at all.

As I suspected, it was too early last week to try to define the new channels for the precious metals. It probably still is now, especially for platinum and gold., but here goes ...

Palladium - STILL holding within the original channel. Incredibly resistant to the forces that are affecting the market prices of other metals.

Silver- Brushed off the affect of the drop in gold and recovered. The short term drop did not take it out of the channel defined last week, so maybe this one is valid. A nice slope of +40%/year.

Gold - Ugly! If a new channel has been established, it has a very steep downhill slope of -30%/year. Could have easily chosen a channel that would be even worse.

Platinum - Revision of the channel to accommodate recent price weakness results in a negative slope of -20%. For all you platinum bugs this bears watching, as the trend may no longer be your friend.

It is rainy and gloomy here. I am bored and I this is how I choose to spend my time today. I am reliving fond memories from the anals...annalls...oh hell...the halls of kitco. If most of my fondest memories have to do with you, so be it. I can 'see' your talent as an intelligent human being as I also 'see' the talents of others here. I DO remember what Mr. Puetz has said in the past and although I do not agree with him I respect someone who posts his views in a proper and well thought out manner. Poking fun is good ( I poke fun to the limit on occasions ;- ) ) . There is also an etiquette and a decorum which should be met ( I hope some of the recent posts by the hepster are truly his for they are 'drinkable' ) . We must practice what we preach. We are judged by this.

My suggestion to you would be to re-read kitco since you arrived. Re-read ALL of your posts. And then re-read Mr.Puetz's back six months. You can do it. Call it something reserved for a rainy day ;- )

These people ( who many I do not agree with ) at kitco I consider my friends, my cyber-pals, my mentors AND looney-ticks combined. We may agree as well as differ but in the end we can still post with respect and dignity toward each other. This is my obsession with you. To help your vision. I am a lensgrinder. I LOVE YOU MAN!!

btw, I said I like a good bet, not a bad bet, but a good bet. I don't but it either. However, tell me you were NOT U No Whoooo and we can move on.

away...to await the 'more new and more improved' LGB...oh my...




who was that who lost his glasses?...

al--

every-day that goes by with-out a major definitive
move for gold and silver bolsters the odds in favor
of this happening.

'for every action, there is an equal an opposite reaction'

this is an immutable law of nature which applies to all
endeavours of man.

look at weekly charts for gold and silver for the last
20 years, 10 years, 5 years. what do you see relative
to the law just stated? what HAS to happen sooner or later?
with stocks dwindling at incredible rates, and the stockpiles
at historical lows, AND the LOW prices, where should your money
be? options or physicals for me. with both hands for gold and silver.

use your own mind, use ONLY risk capital, and most importantly----

stay awake.

cherokee!; ) pre-cognizance---the-vehicle-is-near-----

I don't think we'll see $400/oz by mid-December, but I definitely agree with you the bottom is in. Gold will certainly rally to $330 in the near term. I respect Glenn as a shrewd, clever, experienced trader; but in this case I believe he is wrong. And in the case of , he is just following the intelligent credo of "The trend is your friend," which is an eminently reasonable strategy *until the trend ends and reverses.* I admit at this point we have no objective evidence that GOLD's downtrend is over, but at several times in the past 17 years, the $300/oz area has proven to be a bastion of support for the precious yellow metal. The market can ignore the fundamentals for only so long before reality sets in. In this case, millions of individuals around the world of all colors, races, creeds, and religions are recognizing GOLD for the incredible value it is at this price level, and no amount of government coercion or brainwashing can hide it. These are certainly "interesting times" !!

roe-bear----

cat-birds were almost impossible to successfully
stalk and defeat with a cross-man pump. all other
species ( except crows ) fell easy prey.

the cat-bird survived, and thrives due to his solidarity
and constant use of heavy cover.

this technique of survival could easily be put to use
for modern-day investors. remain independent, and stay
covered with known and safe devices.

-Bug or something like that. Or  jr.-goldbug. here's one, GoGoLGbugGoGold, too ethnic I think...

C-Ball - he is MY obsession. buzz-off ;- )

away..to accept all pipes from Texas-cyber-strangers...oh my...




toke...toke...ahhh...

Wow, here I go through the last batch of posts and what do I see?! Gossips about "a" loves "b" but does not like "c". Crystal Ball, leave me out from love scenes on a beach, its enough that I am getting screwed by markets ;- )

Hey LGB, so you could not resist? I kinda thought so. Well, you must be a masochist. Don't expect lovely welcome from some members of this community.
I don't mind LGB posting as far as we don't turn this forum into hostile war zone ( especially while many are licking their wound from pitiful performance of gold ) . So please LGB, no need to rub the salt into anybody wounds.

Catbird: ( 1709 ) an American songbird ( Dumetella carolinensis ) dark gray in color with black cap and reddish coverts under the tail. They have numerous songs and can mimic like a mockingbird.
Catbird seat: ( 1942 ) a position of great prominence or advantage.
We have a lot of catbirds around our place, I never noticed the reddish coverts, because I've never been in the catbird's seat before:- ) )

tam-bien re: cat-bird

another name is the wood thrush for you orno-type-dudes

Cherokee: Your post makes no relevant sense to me. I have not been preaching the "end" for several years. Although I realize your comments are not specific in my regard, I leave you with this thought specifically from me.

The handwriting on the wall was clear ten short months ago. Since that time I have positioned myself for the future, which is the current now.

I suggest that if you have a streak of prudence you will at the very least make some provisions.

The affair between EB and LGB has upset me terribly and caused me to visit my therapist. I therefore must sue both of you. On my way to my lawyers office, my shoes fell off and I lost my glasses.

You too! With the crossman pump? We share a heritage then, a revelation that has brought a grin to a gray day here, 33F and cloudy, ( there is a promise of some snow however ) .

Why da gold she fall like my pants?

Yes EB, the gloomy days do cause the idle hands being the devils playground and all, now remember though, I DID predict that El Nino would hit us here this week with a vengeance! And we've had the first 2 major storms of the season on Weds., and again last night. Even funnel clouds in the Sacto. valley this week.

L.A. wasn't exactly sunny & warm either! ( That's where I spent the week on business, when I was supposedly posting as Karlito and Gus!! hehe )

As to decorum and all, I'd be happy to remain the new and improved LGB, if others would cease and desist from the presonal attacks. A trend that you will find, did not start with Moi.

Look at it from an "outsiders" point of view. You come to a forum to learn about the PM investor's thoughts. As soon as you post a contrary opnion, rationally stated, after making enormous gains for years, you're attacked as a Lemming/Moron/Parrot/DippyDipster/Naive/etc etc. subhuman et al.

When responding to same, keep in mind I was very much a "minroty" here on thsi forum, and came under pretty withering attack. If you do go back and read some of those earliest August posts, you'll find far more pejoritive adjectives thrown my way, than I myself dished out. This becomes frustrating when you're trying to make a rational argument for apoint of view..one that has been extremely successful in fact, and continues so, even on a week to week basis. And I did sincerely feel the sentiments in my "Goodbye" speech, too much G&D here, etc. however, I find the site challenges both sides of my cerebral hemisphere's you know?

As for me, narket startegy will always change. I'm neither a die hard Goldbug OR a paperbug. Trying to catch each wave as it comes.

Crystal Ball: 30 days and counting. Whoopee! I say that not to exempt myself from the ridicule such a statement would warrant. Nor to pat myself on the back for uttering words that just by chance happened to come true.

It is a guess, nothing more nothing less.

I wear no collar so I do not pretend to preach.

It is a guess, nothing more nothing less.

Its quite grey, cold and gloomy here in new york city.... my hometown

Yes Miro, I didn't expect a hero's welcome in posting! But I AM starting to turn bullish on Gold, as I think the end of it's demise is near, and I do have some limited faith in certain types of market cycles. however, it's not nearly as complex and nefarious out there in the markets as most people here seem to believe. manipulations are maybe 10% of what happens ona day to day basis with Gold, DOW, etc. the other 90% is investor psychology, and genuine fundamentals. ( which exclude Lunar phases of course! )

I much prefer being a civilized "nice guy" as I mentioned to EB, however, it goes both ways no? If any of the diehard Goldbugs here had gone over to a "paper" forum to learn about paper investments, and started posting their contrary views, I think they'd get an education about the perspective I hold on this forum.

aurator--

to be in the cat-bird seat means you
are in control and aware of all peripheral
activity, as the birds really are.

their coloring ( not ethnic related!! ) also
provided excellent protection from detection.
their shuffling in the under-growth gave the
hunter his only advantage.--------

http://www.abcnews.com:80/sections/business/gold1114/index.html

Uh Oh Karlito, you're post right before mine. Now Pword will be SURE that you and I are one and the same!! And he'll be as right about that as he is in his weekly market predictions eh?

Cold, gray, and raining El Nino's here..... Now keep posting the site, we need some balance. be careful though, you see what they did to ole LGB! Almost a hightech. lynching. ( As our supreme court justice would say )

I find it fascinating that the bears keep lowering their targets as gold drops. I'm 100% certain that wherever gold's bottom is, the bears will be expecting it to go a lot lower. Rest assured that if we fall to $270, the bears will start talking about $200 or lower.

This is the precise inverse of the stock market. When the market was soaring the bulls kept hiking their targets. They were never satisfied. Just like Dow 10,000 proved to be an illusion so will gold $250 and maybe even gold $280. Those who get too greedy --whether stock bulls or gold bears -- will give it all back and then some in the end.

FT Weekend 11/15 - 11/16

Do you smell paper burning?

Russia blacklists 11 western banks after market turmoil

Russias central bank yesterday said it would refuse to deal with 11 western investment banks...Chase, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse First Boston, UBS, Salomon Brother, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Morgan Grenfll, Banque Nationale de Paris.

The move follows a severe liquidity crunch in Russian financial markets triggered by the global volatility three weeks ago. Most of the banks were unavailable for comment ( being locked in conference with their legal staffs--SDRer ) ; however CSFB said the issue had been resolved: We failed to deliver the MinFin bonds on time because a lot of MinFin bonds HAVE BEEN STOLEN ( o my! ) , so we had to double-check their serial numbers.
It is a disgrace that the London market, the biggest capital market in the world, should have to be put on the right course by the Russian market.

Analysts said that the problems arose after western banks short-sold MinFins, dollar denominated Russian government bonds.

When the local Russian investors sought to buy bonds, the banks were unable to buy securities to settle the trades.

According to an analyst working for western owned brokerage in Moscow: It was just sloppy. They had shorted the market and when the Russian banks started buying they simply refused to deliver.

Mmmmmm. The Round-Eyed Magican from the West may have a few credibility problems? ( Min-Fins STOLEN! )

tolerant1@1610---

you are complete grass-hopper......can i have the pebble back?

LGB:

You called myself and many others morons. Well, in my case ( but not the others ) that may be true. Inexperienced and uneducated in investing,
definitely. That's why I'm here trying to learn.

But I do have a problem with your claim that stock mutual fund investors expect only 8% return per year. If that's what you really believe, there may be a flaw in your strategy since the number is more like 34%. What will the 401K stock ( not 401K bond or 401K mmf ) investors do if the return drops to 8% or less and the bond yields rise to 8% or more? Or if the U.S. has a crash like Japan, HK, Philippines, Thailand, etc.? What did the Japanese do when their market dropped? Answer - they removed 93% of their money from stock mutual funds. Are U.S. investors somehow different/smarter than the Japanese ( be careful - your answer could be considered racist ) ?

Glad to hear you like silver. To tell you the truth I'm not happy with gold either. Fortunately, it's only about 1/3 of my natural resource investments.

A few posters were asking about Searle. He does some posting at this URL:
http://talk.techstocks.com/investor

But you do need to go thru a simple registration process.

The abuse of statistics costs one credibility. Has gold preserved its value over the years? The one who chooses as his baseline a rare up spike year ( 1980 ) reveals his heart. The truth is, a careful comparison of the average annual bullion with the CPI since 1972 ( when the price started changing significantly ) reveals a much more complex pattern that supports to a limited degree the "good suit" theory. I still wish I had put everything I had into bullion in 1973, or even 1976, for that matter.

No, certainly not 1980. Also, with the slide of the last year, gold does not buy as nice a suit as it used to.

Honest open debate, without hidden agenda, is refreshing.

Certainly all of us -

( 1 ) pro-gold ( those who have a natural affinity for gold, who enjoy it as a topic and as an investment for more than purely monetary motives ) and

( 2 ) anti-gold ( the "barbaric relic" crowd ) , as well as

( 3 ) allegedly "neutral" participants,

have been guilty of occasionally one-sided posts. The poster who puts forth a twisted position and then gleefully tweaks the noses of others, accusing them of mean-spiritedness while defending the supposed unassailable objectivity of his own posts, has not yet won his struggle for respect, if that is his cause ( as opposed to the struggle to be irksome, a victory which he has most surely gained ) .

Here is the url for metal stocks. The silver stocks are around 125 million ounces, rather than the 500 million I quoted earlier ( I was just
going from memory and apologize for the error ) . The point remains the same,however, that the misstatement by the Swiss Bank is not as large as it first appears.

http://gamma.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/mpsn?ai=fwne&sa=879457347

Donald: Sometimes governments do have to do things that are conflicting, you sound a bit free market yourself and yet want the government to regulate the risks bankers take.... Pragmatism should be the only ideology of good government.

The peak inflation rate in the 1970s and 1980s was never more than 13%, and then only briefly, we have had high real rates of interest for most of the decade.... they were indeed greedy geezers as they were also getting unbelieveably high rates of return off the social security system and off the rise in real estate values. You needed no brains to make money during this time.

The worst of the crooked bankers went to jail... many unfortunately did not. We punish blue collar crime much harder in this country than white collar.... its true, I dont like it either, it undermines the integrity of the system.

We agree that the world has changed.... I just see it changing for the most part for the better. There is a recession coming, but the sky is not going to fall. To get a depression, I would still argue, you need a catastrophic mix of bad policy: fiscal, monetary and trade. I just dont see that mix of policies at this time.... I also see very favorable demographic trends that will bring a steady stream of funds into the fiancial markets for at least the next decade. Long term, the US stock market still has a lot of upside.

For those anxious to go short at current levels here is a good excuse. Real gold doomsday stuff. But you may get burned. This is the kind of rumor that one hears near secular troughs.

From the latest Privateer gold analysis:



The latest rumour making the rounds of the Gold markets is that the new European Central Bank
which is to be set up to oversee Europe's new currency, the Euro, will not deem it necessary to
have any Gold reserves at all.

Tolerant1, Crystal Ball, George Cole: I feel pretty comfortable saying we will not see a new Dow high but less confident about a gold low. The Dow is tired and three months plus since the last high, after a many month period setting high after high tells me it is over.

If the gold low was months ago I would feel the bottom was in. Too many bulls are still convinced the Dow will go higher. We need to convince them with another heavy-duty Monday type drop. From that point on, whenever it is, gold will not go lower out of fear.

An alternate scenario would be a bond market selloff. Destroy the bond safe haven and gold is the only thing left except for the DM and SF.

Thanks for the advice LGB

Nick@Aussie, George Cole: Where is all this "capitulation" what you've been talking about?? The markets don't seem to be behaving themselves properly, are they?
I don't know how long the US dollar can hold its value in the current Asia crisis, but as someone said before ( Nick, I think ) , that will be the final straw that brings the gold bull in for real.
Surely everyone knows that the big boys are driving the masses toward electronic currency, and away from everything else, and are willing to crash the entire financial system of the world to do it, 'nes pa?

Tyler Rose - Yes comex gold stocks are around 550,000 ounces, but not all of them have contracts written against them They actually belong to someone who is just storing them there. The significance of the admission of lieing by Swiss Bank Corp should not be passed off so lightly. This may well be the first of many such 'errors and omissions' when gold derivatives are called. This looks very much like the first news we heard in the Sumitomo copper scandal. Each subsequent news event was bigger. My point and the point the everyone should raise is "Is the integrity of Comex at stake?" "Who will honor all of the derivative commitments?" "What if the amount of 'short' positions in gold and derivatives actually exceeds the amount of gold available worldwide?" "What if the CB's can't deliver because the gold has already been loaned out?" No, 32,000 oz 'mistake' is not the end of the world. But it could very well be the end of the bear market!

Karlito: You have nothing to base your argument on other then the released numbers from the government, Federal Reserve and the Central Banks.

Since the Federal Reserve and Central Bank books are not open to any accountability how can you profess to "know" anything about which you speak.

At best you must agree that you are basing your argument on theories of theoretical information provided but never once checked and verified.

Donald: Enter, stage left ---------- Japan

cherokee, thanks - i too see much in watching the birds....

00

Gold mining executives appear to be wimps and pussys these days. Their entire empires are crumbling beneath their feet and hardly a word of protest is heard. They are closing mines laying off people and disrupting large communities without an apparent fight.

Where are the public diatribes against the evil central bankers which are causing all this personal turmoil. Why are they not denouncing the practice of these bankers to lend gold out for short sellers. Where are the lawsuits for lost profits etc....

A strong case ( for purely political motives ) can be made that the bankers are flooding the market with gold in an attempt to destroy the mining industry so that the price of gold will rise significantly in a year or two and allow the bankers to dump their gold at much higher prices. It will also allow them to revalue their reserves at significantly higher values and meet the requirements for the European union if they choose not to sell. This much seems obvious to any cynically minded person, even if it is not their exact intent at all.

I understand it takes up to five years to get a gold mine up and running. These artificially lower prices should decimate the market over the next few years driving the supply demand gap significantly wider than it is now.

The bankers will soon be in the envious position of total control in that they can cause the price to run away upwards at a moments notice by simply agreeing among themselves not stop the lending or just start recalling the loans without any collusion.

Of course we will all make a killing in the market by keeping our ear to the rail and making sure we wait until the bottom occurs and get in with both feet when the rocket takes off! I call it follow the slime trail. Seems an disgusting way to make money on other peoples misfortune, but if the gold mine executives refuse to defend their people and projects how can we speculators lose.

I personally like a challenge not a give away. Come on Monk and company and get off your butts and defend your turf!

Toleerant1 I have a large group of friends from graduate school who I have known now for nearly 20 years who work in the Federal bureaucracy in different statistical collection capacities. Collecting data on a multi-trillion dollar economy is a huge operation.

The size of the conspiracy that would be required for the Feds to cook the numbers would be enormous. Since millions of businesses and investors depend on this data, the incentive for someone in this supposed conspiracy to reveal it would be great.

The only rational conclusion that I can draw is that the numbers are legitimate. You can believe what you want, but the onus is on you to show some conspiracy.

Thats not to say that the numbers are perfect. There are legitimate methodological arguments around how some of the data is collected and what it really means. But I dont believe for a minute that there is any kind of systematic fixing of the numbers to create an alternative reality.

TO ALL Bema Gold fans;
4,443,612 shares were covered between Oct 15 and Oct 31.
The shorters are gone.Total shares shorted now is 261,836.

Folks, I am not so skilled in all intricacies of the gold market, but lately ( maybe because I am reaching the point of not understanding it at all ) my thinking is that somebody is trying to corner this market and clean it up a bit. No, I am not trying to come up with some conspiracy theories, however there is no reason for gold to behave like it does. Is it possible that some strong hands are letting gold slide down, letting all shorts believe this is the real trend and when we reach the point where warehouses are near empty, and supply channels are choked ( due to mining companies closing or going out of business ) they throw the money in kill all shorts ( through asking to deliver ) , and get the full control of this market including mining and metal in the ground?
In this scenario none of the "trends", "charts", and technical analysis trying to predict bottom are not really valid. It could be also devastating to some of our participants who make money through short trading based on "trend".

I may be crazy, but I have this "stinking feeling". Who would be able to do something like that? Well some CB trying to sell gold for the right price ( not a price which fluctuates so widely due to a casino characteristic of this market ) or maybe CB trying to reestablish the gold as viable asset ( after all, they own a lot of it ) or some other old money discussed lately on this forum.

BTW, as far as gold stocks performance in a case of stock market crash ( if that ever happens ) , I think you may see a different scenario from the past. I think that due to a sharp decline of PM stocks we are experiencing right now "before" the overall market decline, gold stocks may not be hit so much. Oh heck, what do I know, its just my dumb opinion :-o

TO JLM;
Barrick Gold has 11,342,879 shares shorted. Shorters have to cover
@ some point.Monk will get off his ass soon enough.

Karlito: That's why there are Historians. In this instance I don't think they will have to wait fifty years to realize the huge massaging of the numbers to complete this journal. But then again if you are correct, the United States Economy you so heartily defend won't crumble right before our very eyes.

We just disagree on what reality is.

May I interest you in some gold and silver coins?

The New Year is a mere 46 six days away, no diplomas needed.

To Tolerant1;
You mentioned gold @ $400 by December 15.Can you clue me in.
I know demand outstrips supply but What am I missing?

Your post from last night, FWN dated 11-14 time 17:07 stated that the Swiss Bank said it had 3811872 in silver oz ( as did Tyler R's post ) but actually had only 335,203. Now the info from Tyler Rose post was from *11-13*. According to the 11-14 post the difference is 3,476,669 ounces of silver ( missing ) and 75284-43696= 31588 oz of gold missing. Is this information still correct as far as you know?

Mikey: Three words; fear, supply, demand.

TO Selby ( re: 14:42 ) ;
I missed that article. $147/oz ??????

miro---

if your theory is correct, how would you play this market?

options for leverage, and physicals for safety.....imnsho

i'm adding gold ( call ) , silver ( call ) , and euro$ ( put ) options monday morning. no more than $100 per premium as far-out as
possible. what a pittance to have a strong hold on the holders
of the rights to the glistening golden ones, and the money changers.

options, leverage, and safety.......play the great game of life
and PREPARE for success, as one day it will surely come-a-knocking;
if you are asleep, you will join the other billions of sleep-walkers
as history repeats her-self and squashes the masses with the weight
of 60 years of chaos and flux.

cherokee!; ) fixing-to-imbibe-fire-water-------bblwssfa

Roebear - All the info I have is what was released last night. I can not tell if the amount of gold and silver is actually missing or if the amount of 'eligible' stocks ( those against which a contract has been written ) are just decreased because the contracts were screwed up. We will wait with interest to see the total position of the comex warehouse depositories after Monday. I will post the results on Kitco as soon as I get them. Until then we really don't know.

Gold Jockeys: PLZ advise on following: Continuous leaching process, has been performed in a lab setting but has not been put into practice in a full scale mining operation. The continuous leaching process will greatly reduce the per ounce cash cost of production for gold. Do you think that Central Banks are aware of this new technology ( needs to be refined ) and are dumping their gold before production cost is lowered, thus lowering the price of gold. Are the CBs afraid of the potential of this new technology and are being proactive, not to mention to help themselves make the EU currency requirements. I remember reading that the continuous leaching process will drop the cost very low, I do no remember exactly how low, but possibly under $100/ ounce. - Scott Ginn

Karlito: I like to think I am free market but, in truth, if I had been president in 1933 I might have done the same as Roosevelt. Those were tough times and required extraordinary action. I hope I would have had enough sense to restore things to free market normal soon after 1933.

I saw the post by Au Contraire just ahead of yours and in spite of his warning, about picking a rare spike up as a baseline, we did hit 18% inflation on an annualized basis in April, 1980. Even using your 13% figure, which is a CPI number that excludes state, local and federal tax increases, I dispute that our greedy geezers achieved a real return of more than 1%. Often rates were negative by 2 to 3% on average. And, you can't or better said, shouldn't, spend the appreciation in your house. Many are doing that today to finance their stock market investments.

As to the future, you will have to educate me about the demographics. I thought the birth rate was in decline in the U.S. and expanding worldwide.

We have bad governmental policy aplenty, domestic and foreign. We have overcapacity aplenty; the auto industry will have online manufacturing capability for 80,000,000 new autos worldwide by the year 2000. That is one of the most glaring examples. That overcapacity capability has been financed by debt. Those debts can not be paid because the customers have no more purchasing power. That overcapacity was built for export to the U.S., not for consumption in the home country. Price cutting has already begun. Overcapacity and deflation will be two words you will hear a lot in the coming months.

At least we can agree on the weather, I am 125 miles east of you and grey and gloomy it is!

To ALL: I don't know about you, but compared side by side, my money is on Mr. Puetz.

From Puetz @ gold-eagle

To create the potential for a market crash, there are several conditions that must first be present. The two most important ingredients are extreme over-valuation and massive leveraging. These two ingredients are virtually inseparable. They always seem to go hand-in-hand.

Various measures of the absurd level of valuations span the gamut from price-to-book ratios, dividend yields, price-to-earnings ratios, the capitalization-to-GDP ratio, the capitalization-to-home-prices ratio, and the ratio of the market values of all stocks-to-bonds.

From Karlito @ Kitco post

To get a depression, I would still argue, you need a catastrophic mix of bad policy: fiscal, monetary and trade. I just don't see that mix of policies at this time.... I also see very favorable demographic trends that will bring a steady stream of funds into the financial markets for at least the next decade. Long term, the US stock market still has a lot of upside.

Yvan Auger says: If the XAU has not bottomed yet it's just about to. The wave structure can easily be counted as complete, Friday's sell off did go below the trendline only to rebound and closed above it and finally, the 10 weeks cycle is due to bottom on November 25th which is only a week away. So, expect a rally that could start immediately and should quickly bring prices to the 88-91 level. Thereafter it's a toss-up. Again, even if my preferred count is bearish, it's possible to be much more bullish with targets in the 112-120 area. Especially if you look at Agnico-Eagle and the Canadian Gold&Silver index which both count best as finishing their first impulse wave that started in February 96. But for now it's too early to tell. So let's wait for the coming wave structure to guide us.

See: http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/wrapup.html

TO Tolerant1;
Bottom has not formed yet. Too much over hang supply. There will be 2 major resistence level
before approaching $400. The $340 and $380 level. If and when the $380 is broken, all hell will
break loose and YES the $400 will be at hand. Breaking these mentioned resistence levels will
take time. Momentum investors will ONLY JUMP IN when assured the $380 is OUT OF THE WAY.
Nearing $400/oz will force a lot of gold companies to go out in the market and re-purchase all
gold sold forward and order to cancel hedging. YES I AGREE WITH YOU. - demand, fear.
BUT marching in to $400 will take more than 21 DAYS from now.

Mikey

TOLERANT1: I agree with you. Please see my 13:34 post. I would welcome your comment.

BIG BAD WOLF, pleaeaeaease, where are you ? We do need your irony in
these hard times...

It will be interesting to see the story that results. And since SI also has that news URL, it will be all over the web tomorrow, if not already. Who knows, it may even be too late for them to apply effective spin control:- )

To Mikey: Your information on Bema shorts is facinating! What a fall from $12.00. Should it recover half of that if we get any kind of a rally?

Mikey: I put on my clown nose a long time ago, so my clown guess of mid December has been standing for a while.

But, starting forward from midnight last night, going forward, my clown guess has 30 days. The markets may only trade a certain amount of days and hours, but the minds keep whirring away.

An hour can be an eternity, imagine a whole weekend of feeling left out. Tick, tock, tick, tock...

Cherokee, I am trying to figure it out. Your idea of "physicals for safety" sounds right, not so sure about "options for leverage". If somebody controls the market he controls the price and while up trend is more likely, you don't know how they can play and time it. I think it's more stability of the market trend somebody would try to control, timing would not be so important.

Donald: Since Karlito didn't respond, could you give me your opinion on the following? Thanks.

Karlito- Why is Social Security not considered debt? Like debt, it represents a future obligation, ( secured by law instead of a piece of paper ) . Like debt, it comes out of future revenue. It seems to me that if we are to ignore SS in the debt/GDP ratio, we might as well ignore it all. Let's call the ratio 0. BTW, with these nice low rates, the present value of said SS obligations is getting bigger, no?

TO JLM;
Bad winter/storms in Chile have cost Bema approx $530US to produce
an oz of gold in their last quarter.It is miserable weather down
there. Bema's partner ( 50% Amax ) ,is not doing terrible also.

Bema is WIRED directly in the price of gold.
Any rally and watch out.Just like Barrick Gold. Buy options.
If you are a long term player, forget options and buy the shares.

Did you know that the property they discovered with Arizona Star
is the LARGEST UNDEVELOPED PROVEN RESERVE in the world.
Shorters are out for now. Let see what Bema does now.

Neil: Your post is excellent and far surpasses my abilities to respond in kind as to my belief in which flavor of flation shall be served up on the global plate. I do not say that to patronize you. I am in a quandary myself as to this question.

You and Mr. Puetz serve up an interesting economic buffet. I am helping myself to a serving of each and hope I come out of the economic dinner hall in one financial piece.

WSF: Social Security is an off balance sheet ( pun? ) fund. It was supposed to be self funding. The worker pays half and the employer pays the other half. If it had been actuarily sound and not been used as a vote getting technique it might have had a chance of staying sound. When/if the fund is broke the treasury probably does not have an obligation to pay thus it is not a debt of the government. Some of this is supposition on my part.

IMO--do not discount what Saddam can bring about. He didn't pull off his ultimate plan in 1991 because he underestimated President Bush's ability to form an effective coalition, but Clinton is a much different story.
The world's financial order is near the edge of a cliff. What can push it over? Spiking oil prices. What will cause oil prices to go up?? Drawing other Arab nations into the fray. What will bring other Arab nations into the fray? The prize that will make Saddam the second or third greatest figure in Islam--in his dreams.

Hey, Mikey: What is this largest proven thing all about. Not busting chops. Curious that's all. I am unaware of this.

WSF, your question about "Why is Social Security not considered debt? Like debt, it represents a future obligation, ( secured by law instead of a piece of paper ) " could be answered through looking at nature of SS program. SS was intended to work on annual income/pay basis. We had a surplus of income in old days, but will have a shortage in coming years where more and more retired recipients are suppose to be covered by SS tax imposed on people still in a workforce. That's reason that income level which is taxable for SS is raised each year and SS tax percentage is raised here and there. There will come time when we won't be able to do it anymore and SS will go broke. Forget about "obligation", as a matter of fact I dont think anybody put more into SS than we hope to get out ( well, OK, maybe if we died soon enough )

See you later, now it's time to get some life in addition to be glued to my computer screen ;- )

Amidst the currency chaos, mounting debt debris and stock market turmoil ravaging all-Asia, a voice emerges which goes to the core of the problems. John Kutyns observations and insights ring with Churchillian logic and clarity. In painful detail he paints the problems plaguing Asia... and with oracle eyes he foresees the havoc to be wrought before economic stability may be restored. His poignant observations regarding Japans forced action in US Treasuries and Gold will soon prove to be prophetic:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn111597.html

Hoosier, Neil: My feeling on deflation is that the U.S. is about to enter that condition. I still we have inflation at this point. Deflation is involuntary and beyond the control of government during debt liquidation stage. Post debt liquidation I expect an attempt to reinflate. I am less certain about South Africa but this seems to be a world event and it is unlikely SA will be spared. Gold holders do well in deflation. Hoosier, I was formerly an IBNS member, sold my collection in 1983? Mostly British Commonwealth. In the U.S. during times of hard money shortages a wide variety of tokens and scrip circulated, mostly locally. I remember sales tax tokens and OPA tokens as a kid. They were harder to get than money and you couldn't buy anything without them except on the black market. My wife tells a great story about a time she was babysitting at age 14, in 1945. She was watching the kids of the local restaurant owner and about 10pm, when he was due home, she heard a lot of gunfire outside. The guy had gone to Providence to get meat on the black market for his restaurant. The FBI had been waiting for him to return and there was a shootout but nobody got hurt. We called the tokens "points". They were smaller than a dime, made out of fibre composition with incuse lettering like the Bela Lyon Pratt gold pieces.

For those gold chartists, you may want to examine the "reversal island" that now exists in gold! It's time to go UP and the charts know it.

Going up means: fill the gap at 325 and stay there a while....then on to 340 by February.

See you bulls there!

The dollar is at a major resistance level and it is likely to penetrate the same to the downside with a significant decline with a devastating affect on the U.S. equity markets. By purchasing U.S. debt instruments, thereby purchasing U.S. dollars, unknown entitites, both public and private, hope to support both the dollar and the U.S. equities markets. By selling gold, they hope to accomplish the same affect, boosting U.S. bonds, U.S. equities and the dollar. However, the same increases the number of dollars which foreign banks must, directly or indirectly, purchase. This decreases the liquidity of foreign debt and equity markets which causes the selling of dollar denominated financial instruments which accelerates the decline of the dollar which, eventually, will result in the predicted singnificant decline in the dollar and U.S. equities.

SDRer: Saw your 16:39. Looks like the best banks of the Western world are personna non grata, and the Russian gangsters have run off with the goodies. We need to watch this part of the world carefully, because it is not just market collapse or financial crisis that may come out of Russia. Given what the International Red Cross said about coming famines in Russia this winter, there is trouble ahead. First -- for the Russians, and Second -- for the rest of the world.
I was wondering why Boris suddenly took an anti western stance, and pro- communist several weeks ago.
Big time trouble ahead

While SS is off balance sheet, the current year surpluses aren't- they go against the deficit. Anyone who has seen the demographics knows that this system is not self-funding going out. I guess my implied assumption is that the government will incure debt in the future to meet the obligations. Or not. Either way, we are cooked.

Oh Karlito- I have many grad school friends as well. Economists who take the well-intended work of your statistician friends and "correct" it for the biases that only they "understand". It's funny how these biases tend to work in one direction only- the direction "pushed" by the guys higher up. It is not a conspiracy.It is just that rather than being asked "Why is the unemployment rate we sampled wrong?", they ask "Why is the rate we sampled too high?" Its that simple.

Japan: A Model for What Not to Do

Asia's richest economy saw its asset bubble burst six
years ago. Since then it has avoided major
deregulation, corporate restructuring--and gone
nowhere fast.

Edward W. Desmond

Stocks plunge. Real estate goes bust. Consumers get tightfisted. That
scenario is a cold, new reality in much of Asia, but to Japan it's a
familiar story. Ever since Japan's financial and real estate bubble
burst in the early 1990s, the economy has limped along, with annual
GDP growth averaging just over 1%. Indeed the Tokyo market has
been down so long--the Nikkei index has yet to climb back to more
than 58% of its 1989 peak of 38,916--that the shock from
October's stockquake was no big deal. In contrast to double-digit
swings in much of Asia, the Nikkei fell just 4.3%.

Even so, Asia's continued tailspin poses the most serious danger to
Japan since the yen rose to 80 to the dollar in 1995, threatening to
fatally throttle the sole sustaining force in Japan's economy--the
competitiveness of its blue-chip exporters. Buoyed by a weaker yen
over the past two years, Japan's exporters have made Asia their
fastest-growing market. Today 44% of Japanese exports go to Asia,
vs. just 25% to the U.S. Now with those markets stalling out, sales
of Japanese cars and electronics are set to sink.

Making matters worse, up to 70% of Japan's Asia-bound exports
are capital goods, like factory machinery, that are headed for an
especially sharp fall. Most Asian countries have already significantly
overinvested in new factories and capacity. Fearing the worst,
economists in Tokyo are cutting their growth forecasts for Japan in
the current fiscal year to zero or a bit above. "We had a financial and
a real estate bust already in Japan," says Geoffrey Barker, chief of
Asian research at Schroders Securities Asia in Hong Kong. "Now
we may be about to have an industrial bust." Nor can Japanese
companies expect to make up much of the slack by shifting exports
to the U.S.--especially not with a newly vigilant Washington on the
lookout for dumpers.

Japan had appeared to be on the road to recovery last spring. Then
Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto decided to both raise taxes and
reduce government spending to shrink Japan's huge budget deficit
( 7% of GDP ) . Bad call. Consumption collapsed and growth plunged
2.9% in the second quarter of 1997, the worst quarterly showing in
23 years.

Now the stakes are rising. If the stock market takes another dive ( it
remained just under 16,500 at October's end, when FORTUNE
went to press ) , Hashimoto may have to rethink his austerity
drive--simply to avoid a new crisis. Still suffering from the collapse of
asset values in Japan, the insurance companies--and to a lesser
extent the banks--will be in a sweat if the market goes much below
16,000. A drop to that level would wipe out most of the unrealized
stock gains in their portfolios, making the future more desperate for
imperiled insurers and complicating the banks' efforts to set aside
required reserves. One major insurance company, Nissan Mutual
Life Insurance, collapsed in April this year, and there is widespread
expectation in Tokyo that it will not be the last.

Even with those risks, many economists question whether Japan can
afford to apply any new Keynesian or supply-side tonics, given the
size of its budget deficit and the huge burden it faces in caring for the
world's most rapidly aging population. "Japan's policymakers are
adopting a fatalistic approach," says Peter Tasker, a strategist at
Dresdner Kleinwort Benson. "They managed to prevent heavy
unemployment and bankruptcies of major corporations in the 1990s.
Now they feel the economy may just have to take its lumps."

If the setbacks roiling the rest of Asia make it impossible to dodge a
contraction, Japan can only hope that its coming slump will at least
force it to deregulate and restructure the way it should have ten years
ago. That, of course, is a lesson its neighbors would do well to
ponder too.

TO tolerant1;
What else do you require dear sir?

Mikey: This is what my curious comment was based on;

Did you know that the property they discovered with Arizona Star
is the LARGEST UNDEVELOPED PROVEN RESERVE in the world.
Shorters are out for now. Let see what Bema does now.

What property does this refer to?

A group of men and women who know money, and the world in which it exists,
who have an appreciation of times past, what worked and what lead to disaster, who understand that perception is not reality and to accept everything is to value nothing.

They set themselves a Herculean task: their goal , to have in-place for the coming time when it will be desperately needed, a global, gold-backed currency that will provide a foundation for a value-oriented global commerce.

In Dornbuschs letter to the FT, re: Trichets appointment at ECB, Dornbusch made a revealing statement, when he said that a central banker needed to know, ...what is uncertain, and what risks to take.

Their easy tasks were to prepare and align world governments for an apolitical global central bank, and to devise mechanisms which assured national governments sovereignty over their individual fiat currencies.

Their difficult task was to put in place that which would insure that the Global Currency was actually backed by gold and the Gold Algorithm was the sticky-bit : what commerce would favor ( stability of value ) politicians, governments would find an anathema ( discipline ) .

Although they were well acquainted with Money, they knew little of the hurly-burly of golds real world. Among their number was one who knew that world well; they also enlisted the aid of several discrete parties whom past history had shown--beyond question--they could trust.

JTF@Sanity, Nick@Aussie, Kiwi@NZ, A.Goose@pond.central, Aurator@home, do you see where this goes?

The declining price of gold has little or nothing ( IMHO ) to do with what G30 is trying to accomplish. They WB/IMF, G30 worked out assessments for the various CB; some are more independent than others, so no hard and fast protocol would work for all, it had ( has ) to been individually tailored for each CB.

I would suspect they worked fairly hard NOT to greatly effect the price ( and the Roths & Carnegie were no doubt very helpful here ) ; but the game-playing leads to unintended consequences. There are governments for whom the falling price is a god-send see, gold is down, myriads of players, each with a script to follow and money to make. But what struck me was that the spot price dives AFTER the Bank of Australia announces it has sold ( past tense, the actual transfer caused NOT A RIPPLE ) .

And some Cbs ( maybe all, I dont know ) must announce a sell, the gold cant just disappear from the computer without a by-your-leave, but the lions share WASNT going out into the open market. When the Russians used to sell, there was a relationship between the actual sell and the spot price, it went down. This has been a different animal altogether.

Will they manage to bring it off? It looks like the cracks in the dam's facade are beginning to run together...I hope they do. To contemplate living in a world were the System doesn't exist...

But it is GOLD; buried in Zurich vaults or back-yards...

George Cole

All traders change their price projections as the market moves.

You for example.

regards,

jfklaajf;la

Bill says" Sadam you cannot have weapons of mass destruction".
Sadam thinks" Why is it ok for you to have them Billy".

Bill says "It's cheap oil or I'll shoot".
Sadam thinks " Oh really, you hurt me and I'll get my brothers to go to your house and mess it up".

L.A.Woman ( Doors ) blarin on the headphones~~~~~~~~~~~go gold~~EB: One rainy day and yer snappin----gee whiz.

George Cole's comment that the bears will ALWAYS be looking for a little pit lower no matter how low Gold goes is interesting. I guess we will only know who was luckily and who knows what they are talking about after the fact. It will truely be interesting to scroll back in time as gold is trading $500 to see what all were saying the day gold truely bottomed and started it's bull market.

Well between now and then you may want to go here:

http://www.internet.com

There is a Fall Internet Trade Show in NYC during the beginning of Dec and I am going. It should be a good show. If anyone is near NYC I would recommend it to you.

C.V.Compton Shaw, SDRer, all: Just read your 16:39 post. Pretty much the same as my conclusions -- see my posts to SDRer in the last 24-48 hr. The gold loans are essentially to buy dollars to keep the dollar strong until the ECU/EMU is launched. There will come a time very soon when the "powers that be" will not want to support the dollar and the gold loans will diminish - but presumably not till the ECU/EMU/EURO ( whatever it is ) is operational.
What concerns me is that noone has worked out the details of how the new european currency is going to be set up, as per SDRer's post from Rudiger Dornbusch. I would guess what this means is that:
1 ) Either the dollar will be supported for some time longer ( hard to believe ) , or
2 ) We will have a significant dollar bear very soon, and no real world backup currency.
The latter will be real bad news if so -- but makes sense for two reasons. If the new EURO is not ready it cannot be blamed for a world-wide currency crisis, and the "powers that be" in europe can step in with their "backup" currency and save the day -- a real ( underline real ) gold-backed currency. If the form of the EURO has not been publicised, the "powers that be" can claim that a gold-backed currency was what was planned anyway, and get all the credit for saving the world's financial system from certain destruction. Another explanation is simple bureaucratic inefficiency or uncertainty with the design of the EURO, but the outcome would still be the same.
Comments anyone?

SDRer: Three countries that sold CB gold, Canada, Netherlands, Australia and possibly Belgium have had their currency depreciate after the gold sales. There has been at least that ripple. To that degree confidence has been broken in the currency of those countries.

On a Saturday night~~~~~~with a beautiful moon shimmering on a calm ocean

Dave@aol - The island reversal of which you speak is quite possible...with any other commodity. This is gold we are talkin' about. Look back on you're charts to monday July 7th. This day sucked for gold ( as usual ) . It was a classic island formaion. What happened next is in the books. There ensued a battle twixt the bulls and bears that formed a mighty fine Pennant formation. What happened next is in the books. A classic bull breakout only to be squashed by some 'new' bears. It reached 340 only to be crashed to 300. $40.00=$4,000.00 per contract. The charts don't lie.......eventually...the trend is you're friend...

away... to find a friend...


One lucky shot--your still a punk***

Hawk: Like your reasoning. Always pays to try to think like your antagonist - Saddam Hussein. One more thing I'd add in S.H's response to Bill -- "You have nothing left to hit, so go right ahead"
What does SH have to lose? I wonder -- is SH running out of gold? If he is, he will be like a cornered animal -- didn't some military guru say it is always good to let the enemy have an out so that he can retreat?

I like that idea someone posted at Kitco the other day -- give SH the carrot and the stick -- he can sell oil without restriction as long as the UN inspectors go where they please. Then if he refuses he looses face ( and income ) . I wonder why none of our world-class US diplomats thought of this.

To: Donald
Hello! Yes, you are quite right. I think the expectation is that all the fiat currencies are going to be--those that survive--greatly depreciated.
Or revalued, or devalued.

It is NOT going to be the same. Ever. IMHO

Donald: Are we really the world's largest debtor? What about Japan? Perhaps they are better at hiding the truth about their wealth, which was by a great degree created from inflating real estate, and cross linked equity buying by all those holding companies ( whatever they call them in Japan )

EB called and said he is goin' crazy over this rain. Doesn't understand the concept. Needs you to make him up some brownies crunch, crucnh. got milk? Where is a good Aurator when you need him? I'll bring over the bottle-o-Jack ( the bourbon whiskey ) .


Keep your eyes on the road and you're hands upon the wheel.......

6 three pointers to ice the game. That's better than Gold.

7 - 0 UN defeated







go gold

To:JTF@Sane

I don't think it can be the Euro. The political baggage is too burdensome. It is too hard a sell to the Far East, the Middle East and other blocks.

It has to be something that all can accept as being free of Western hegemony;; I don't think China will accept anything less.
And that means...you know what that means JTF...the SDR!

My family is insisting I "get a life", so I've got to go and 'pretend' to be a real person. Take care. Good discussions/arguements/resolutions
ahead!?!

Hey man,yous my idol~~~~~~~my role model.....Welcome to our happy little forum ( as in GLADiators.. ) ..away ta ponder...

JTF: I don't have handy figures but I recall that on a government to government basis the U.S. is by far the largest debtor.

If it is a country to country comparison, including private debt, I suppose Japan could be the larger debtor. They had some pretty pricey deals in the late 80's.

This is why I dig the Kitco.

Donald 16:54 and 17:45

you da man...

away...to seek what you know


All of this lovey-dovey stuff between EB and LGB must be affect me. How about a '60s style love-in. Will you let me join?

Ted: If we're going to have a love-in, turn up the music. I can't here it..... "Riders on the storm, into this house we're born, into this world we're thrown,......"

It's gatta be the full-moon tonight. Naw, LGB doesn't believe full-moons affect peoples behavior.

EB: I've got to agree with you about Donald. I should post more about the reasons why we are headed for deflation, but Donald does it for me. Just call me a Donald "ditto-head".

Good job, Donald.

TO tolerant1;
Thought to have 27M oz of gold but has been revised to 19M oz
after the pre-feasibility study.Property is Cerro Casale in Chile.
Placer Dome is the JV partner.Placer is not stupid.
They noticed something down there. There is a hell of a lot more
gold there than the original 27M.It will come out after THEIR own
feasibility.

Bema is the next Barrick Gold if they dont get swallowed.

Got it cranked ta the max already ( goofy grin thingy ) fer christ sakes....Steve: Not a good day for you----Boilermakers blown out 42-17.
.That's what I call a crash.......

Dear Jacques,
If nobody dare to answer your quest here I am:

Don`t ask why gold is out of the mood,..just keep your pants fixed with bobwire.
I bet the entire sheebang on gold since 3 years, and I am still confident that I am right.
My next move will be to put more assets in gold stocks ...is this amazing?
I will buy Fort Knox all by myself for peanuts ..the way the gold price is going!
Keep your pants on and do your own diligence thoroughly on witch gold stock will be in fashion in the near future.
I for myself bet on KWG Ressources and 3 others more publicly known.
The King`s pant are in the Chineese Laundry ...and the laundryis
owned by AG Capone.
The hold up on the value of your work is in progress while the money press is running full speed.For Japan ,Tigers Countries ,South America, and next ...Europe and USA.
Read all the posting of ANOTHER, soon OIL will command something else than paper.And natural ressources will do the same soon after.
So if you hold your pants with one hand ...pick the good stuff with the other..ok?

And DO NOT USE MARGIN ...!

All the best,..Salut

Oliver

Thanks Mikey: I was not familiar with the property.

TO Oliver;
Good pick on KWG. Should be good in the near future.

TO tolerant1;
Greatest discovery since Bre-X. 70M ( possibly ) REAL Oz this time.

Another, a question, please: When gold is borrowed from CBs, what collateral is required by the CB to be assured the loan will be repaid in full?

Ted: Yeah! Yeah! Football. In Indiana, basketball is the sport. Purdue opened the season last night. They beat Long Island. They're 1-0, and ranked #6 in the nation -- and heading higher!

Could you put on some Led Zepplin?

TO Hawk;
Its all a ruse.Its a setup.Saddam does not intend to go to war.
Its to stimulate the price of oil.Thats all.You're right.Gulf War
was expensive for everyone.Quick oil price jump can do wanders.

Kustyn's article is excellent, hope the Japanese start the repatriation thing soon as I bought Japanese Yen calls on Friday. We will see.

You should buy my new CD...it ROCKS. At least I'm alive. Get with it Old Dude!!!

go gold

Crunch: I don't believe Central Banks have any good guarantees that they will get their gold back during a financial panic. In the Drexel Burnham Lambert bankruptcy, a decade ago, the Central Bank of either Spain or Portugal lost a good deal of gold they had lent to Drexel.

SDR

Here is a reprint, first uncovered by Donald. Note this article claims the IMF gold is valued in books at 35SDR aka ( then ) 35US$ per oz. This gives a lot a flexibility for revaluing the SDR ( what were those liabilities again? ) and for issuing paper to paper over the SE Asian Unpanic.



Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:56 Donald ( @Home ) :
http://www.imf.org/external/np\exr\facts\gold.htm

April 1997

Gold in the IMF

Before the Second Amendment of the Articles of Agreement of the IMF in April 1978, the role of gold in the international monetary system was central and pervasive. The Second Amendment contained a number of provisions which, in combination, were intended to achieve a gradual reduction of the role of gold in the international monetary system and in the Fund. However, gold is still an important asset in the reserve holdings of a number of countries, and the IMF remains one of the largest official holders of gold in the world.


Holdings of Gold

The IMF holds 3,217,341 kilograms of gold ( 103.4 million fine ounces ) at designated depositories, **valued in the IMF's financial statements at SDR 3.6 billion on the basis of SDR 35 per ounce** ( except for a minor amount accepted by the Fund in 1992 in partial settlement of a member's overdue obligations, and valued at the then-prevailing market price ) . Valued at current market prices, the IMF's holdings amount to SDR 26.7 billion ( $36.8 billion ) . These holdings represent the balance of the IMF's stock of gold after the gold auctions and the restitution of gold to members in the period 1976-80. While gold is reflected as an asset in the IMF's balance sheet, it is not used in the Fund's operations and transactions. According to Article V, Section 12 ( b ) of the IMF's Articles o

SDR

Here is a reprint, first uncovered by Donald. Note this article claims the IMF gold is valued in books at 35SDR aka ( then ) 35US$ per oz. This gives a lot a flexibility for revaluing the SDR ( what were those liabilities again? ) and for issuing paper to paper over the SE Asian Unpanic.



Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:56 Donald ( @Home ) :
http://www.imf.org/external/np\exr\facts\gold.htm

April 1997

Gold in the IMF

Before the Second Amendment of the Articles of Agreement of the IMF in April 1978, the role of gold in the international monetary system was central and pervasive. The Second Amendment contained a number of provisions which, in combination, were intended to achieve a gradual reduction of the role of gold in the international monetary system and in the Fund. However, gold is still an important asset in the reserve holdings of a number of countries, and the IMF remains one of the largest official holders of gold in the world.


Holdings of Gold

The IMF holds 3,217,341 kilograms of gold ( 103.4 million fine ounces ) at designated depositories, **valued in the IMF's financial statements at SDR 3.6 billion on the basis of SDR 35 per ounce** ( except for a minor amount accepted by the Fund in 1992 in partial settlement of a member's overdue obligations, and valued at the then-prevailing market price ) . Valued at current market prices, the IMF's holdings amount to SDR 26.7 billion ( $36.8 billion ) . These holdings represent the balance of the IMF's stock of gold after the gold auctions and the restitution of gold to members in the period 1976-80. While gold is reflected as an asset in the IMF's balance sheet, it is not used in the Fund's operations and transactions. According to Article V, Section 12 ( b ) of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, any transactions in gold by the IMF require an 85 percent majority of the total voting power of the IMF. The IMF may sell gold outright on the basis of prevailing market prices; it may accept gold in the discharge of a member's obligations to the IMF at an agreed price on the basis of prices in the market at the time of acceptance. The IMF does not have the authority to engage in any other gold transactions, e.g., loans, leases, swaps, or use of gold as collateral, and the IMF does not have the authority to buy gold.

There is more, much more...

TED Man, we gettin Earthquakes startin here, some boom box you got there.. ( just kidding - don't want to start a net rumur/rumor/rumour )


( clever fellow )
There's an awful lot of coffee in Brazil
And an ore-full lack of gold at fort knox

Thanks Mikey,
I can assure you there will will be NO FALLGUY in this company KWG Ressources.
But back to gold price...this is the time big money reconduct their next big game plan.
And thrust me Soros`s UK Money deal is Cheep beer in comparision of what is going on right NOW.

WHERE IS THE MOST PROBABLE KEY REVERSAL SITUATION STANDING...?

GOLD...........!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
All the best,

Oliver

There has been some discussion about the stupidity of Gold loans by central banks. It is NOT dumb or dumber but BRILLIANT. Who loans the gold out, central banks. Who borrows it, the mines. Who has to pay it back, the mines. Who/what has gold to give back to the CB, the dirt that the mines own. When, not if, the loan gets called and prices go nuts, gold out of the dirt will which the mines own will be, at the time, a cheep way to pay it. If the mine owner can't pay immediately, as may be required, then the central bank forcloses on the borrower, the mine owner, and PRESTO, the central bank now owns the mine. Pretty slick. Brilliant not dumb or dumber.

yer wish is granTED~~~~~~~~~~~~~~....rock-n-roll.....Headphones tightly strapped on ( Hi CherOkee.... ) Started the day with a good run but in the end I lost....I was hot~~~~~~~~~~~~~on a roll...but THIS ain't baaad...Steve: Go Bobby Knight......and Vince Lombardi...

All

Pardon -- got a broken pipe ---- had to fix it???

After more staring at the channels chart, it seemed that a better choice for the gold channel would be to widen it slightly, and accommodate the whole year. As they say, you can draw a straight line through any three points ... as long as the line is wide enough. :- )

This makes the gold channel ( volitility ) somewhat wider, but not unreasonable so, compared to the other metals. As a result, this channel allows gold to move up to the 330 range near term without breaking the trend, and can be down under 300 by year end, but not much under.

If you look to the left on the chart, around the end of February, you'll see the price movement within the channel looks very similar to the recent movement down to the bottom of the channel. This was followed by a rapid move up to the top of the channel. I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen again. This would allow a possibility to make some money, but I caution against too much excitement unless and until we break out of the top of the channel. The trend still seems to be downward.

supply-side economics
inflation, deflation, Gold as a Constant,
http://www.polyconomics.com/univ.htm
weekend school in supply-side economics

G'day mate!!!!......No pain here ( sly grin thing ) ~~~~~~~~

Adam: What happens to the shareholders in your scenario? A minor detail.

Crunch, Adam: Not all gold loans are to mines. Some have been given to hedge-funds and other financial institutions as a cheap form of obtaining cash. It is from the financial institutions where Central Banks are likely to lose their gold loans -- just like the Drexel loss a decade ago.

Presently, Central Banks hold about 896 million ounces of gold. What I'm not sure of is this: Are gold loans deducted from Central Bank gold-holdings in the official IMF statistics? I believe they are not deducted. If that is, in fact, true, the actual gold-holdings at Central Banks are well below 896 million ounces.

Mikey: That would be great if true. Best of luck with it.

I believe you missed the point. The central banks WILL get their's ( or somebody's elses in place of thier's ) gold back. The point is, that inevitably the CB's will own the mines. That's what they REALLY want, total control of the asset.

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

In reply to J Wenck, Mission Viejo CA USA.

Since the 4 July 1997, and more importantly during October 1997, Australian gold stocks have been savaged, in the majority of cases dropping to 10 to 25% of their value a year ago. At a gold price of US$300, the Australian gold industry is finely balanced, being kept afloat by the dropping Aussie dollar and forward gold sales.

During the last ten years, there has been an incremental increase involvement of major overseas gold mining companies in the Aussie scene, largely South African and financied via London. We appear to be on the verge of another large influx of major overseas mining companies, who may or may not be financied by Rothchilds - who set the daily gold price in London.

By and large, most Australian exploration and mining companies are under capitalised, funded by the local market. There are therefore hugh opportunities for "real" overseas investment, rather than the more speculative local market.

Locally in Kalgoorlie, we tend to face issues - "IF" gold is "stuffed", then it is "all over red rover". Fundamentals tend to suggest that it is not. If you source "FARM BOY'S FINANCIAL PAGES" through Altavista, a number of issues become apparent.

1. Since 1995 the DOW, Standard & Poor, DAX etc have radically increased. Even with the short term October corrections, the indices are still ( as of today ) very high. The question is raised, are they "artificially" high. Since 1995, incrementally, as these markets have increased, gold has decreased. Has gold been taken down, to come back up upon correction of the markets?

2. This increase of the market indices may have occured on the back of non-US ( Japanese ? ) money purchasing US Treasuries. There is a large positive correlation between the market indices are the US Treasuries.

3. Asia, in particular the Japanese are in short term trouble. Could the Japanese resolve their problem by selling part of their US Treasuries holdings. What percentage.

4. The Japanese hold a low level of gold assets, and a high level of US Treasuries.

5. IF the Nikkei trends down below the 15000 point level, towards 14000, will the Bank of Japan step in to protect the Yen. If they do not there will be a complex negative compounding effect. On the current trend, this may occur in January 1998.

6. The US dollar has appreciated some 25% against the Yen in a relatively short time.

7. The current negative trend of the Nikkei now equates to that of gold. All other market indices are still relatively "upish" and high.

8. There is a potential HUGH short term shortfall of gold, reflected by the "Chaps" speculating on the gold market. It takes 2 to 5 years to bring a new gold mine on-line.

9. The Japanese now have a potentially shrinking Asia market, and up to US$100 billion in potentially bad debts. How much do they have invested in US Treasuries ?

10. The Japanese still have the clout to resolve their financial issues, but at whose cost - sell US Treasuries ? Should this happen, what effect on the other markets, in particular Wall Street.

Now, I am a Scotsman - pennies count. If your pennies are potentially worthless and/or are dropping in value - there is only one route to take, GOLD. There are very good historical reasons why the Rothchilds are bankers and long term dealers in gold. The two largest mining companies in the world, Anglo American Corporation and Rio Tinto, are funded and largely owned by the Rothchilds. It should also be noted that Anglo American and Rio Tinto form the Board of Barclays Bank in London. I believe that Mr Bill Gates has yet to be invited to join "their" Club?! Old European money.

I may be wrong, but I currently believe that gold will radically bounce upwards in the new year - conditional on wheither or not the Nikkei quickly drops to the 14000 point level.

In conclusion, the key issue is the Nikkei. If this continues to drop, and the other markets stay "artificially" high, the Japanese may buy gold. The other markets may then be expected to fully or partially adjust towards their pre-1995 levels. Potentially very messey, but good for gold.

Aye,

Haggis

Rock-a-bye sweet baby James......---the turnpike from Stockbridge ta Boston....TRUE CONFESSIONS: Bought 600 shares ABX @ 25.625 ( am i up yet?? ) ---Don't really give a sh!t either....I got patience ( wife is snickerin ) with THAT anyway---if ya don't sell ya don't lose a damn dime and I ain't sellin till I get @ least a five grand er so profit....would buy more but like that other 'stuff'----LAND...'on a country road'....

It appears that the real reason that US wants to go to war with Iraq again have been uncovered: Iraqi scientists "may be using laptop computers to continue proscribed ( nuclear ) research." Imagine that. What a threat to US security. Do not forget to bomb those pesky acordeon factories either while you bomb the laptops. Kind of reminds you of Hitler's ideas, doesn't it?! Go Clinton! I am still amazed thet with "leaders" like that we are not in termonuclear war yet.

Direct quote from Associated Press Article follows. ( I regret I cannot supply the internet link -- you have to go to some AP providers such as www.latimes.com, then select AP Wire from their menus so you are properly registered before entering the Associated Press site. )

"...
Last month, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iraq's nuclear program had been effectively dismantled. But the director, Hans Blix, said the IAEA could not certify compliance because ``it's not impossible that some equipment might be undetected.''

U.N. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say Iraqi researchers may be using laptop computers to continue proscribed research. The officials admitted they had found no one doing so.

The critical question is whether certification should be withheld as long as a possibility exists that illegal weapons programs could be revived.
..."
EDITORS: Robert H. Reid is the chief U.N. correspondent for The Associated Press.

Haggis: A number of writers, including some in today's issue of Barron's, speculate that Japanese institutions will have to sell US Treasuries to bail-out their collapsing financial system. In fact, Fed holdings of US Treasuries by foreign Central Banks have been slowly declining for the past 1/2 year. The sale of CB's Treasury holdings are likely to accelerate in the coming weeks.

I believe the price of US Treasury Bonds will follow the 1929-32 script -- US Treasury Bonds decline ( yields rise ) during CPI deflation. Back then, bonds fell because of a liquidity crunch. This time, the liquidity crunch will be much worse.

Puetz, Do you think these comex warehouse numbers are going to be significant factor for gold and silver? Any idea what has happened in the past in this type of situation?

ted-you're too old to rock.

UGLY.....Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

I know~~~~~~~~~~but I do it anyway.....

Al: I don't follow the COMEX stock very closely. You need to inform me what those numbers are. I tend to follow the global supply-demand more closely. I do know that there is extreme tightness in the physical markets for gold. Virtually all gold dealers report back-orders for gold coins. Eventually, that demand will be reflected in higher gold prices.

rock on boy.

Any comments re Proof Frankin Mints-Bought a lot of 100$ proofs in 73/74/75 when I thought I had to own every gold coin in the world. Someone advised they were not legal tender. Appreciate quick comments. Am as drunk as Ted aka Mick J. Goin to bed. In anticpation, Thanks. Am aware
of gold value but not intrinsic. Muchos.

Reading most of these posts, one can only come to this final conclusion.
Opinions are like assholes, everbody has one.
Most posters on this site sure act like one.

No reply to my last post, good night. Back on Monday.

Reading most of these posts, one can only come to this final conclusion.
Opinions are like assholes, everbody has one.
Most posters on this site sure act like one.

Reading most of these posts, one can only come to this final conclusion.
Opinions are like assholes, everbody has one.
Most posters on this site sure act like one.

I will~~~~~~~~~~~

I ain't drunk~~~~~~~~~~~~~~yet.

brilliant-you just became a part of the problem-now by what means do you
intend to correct it. Please-more of your brilliant comments puuuleeeease.

I think this sums up the stock market.

"It is hard for an empty sack to stand upright."

Ben Franklin

Given this bit of wisdom, I say, deflation.

Plato: No idea. Sorry.

Crunch -- What makes anyone think that the physical gold has moved anywhere? So the central banks 'loaned' gold out. What does this mean, exactly? Could this be nothing more than a promisary note? A letter of credit for gold? A letter which may be used to authorize transactions in the financial markets? I want to see the trucks and trains moving these multi million ounces of gold. What's the 'show me' state? Missouri?

please provide your area of expertise in an effort to provide your type of quality to this site other than flashing your ugly uranus.

Unfortunatley, Franklin mint coins trade only at the value of their bullion. Generally, about a third or less of their original sale price. The Numismatic community considers them a blight in the coin buying world because buyers become so dissillusioned with collecting when they find out the worth of the "Franklin Mint" stuff that they thought was collectible.

Iraq. http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000118613908976&rtmo=346e4a20&atmo=346e4a20&pg=/et/97/11/16/wsad16.jpeg

Anyone have any idea why SSRIF took a 5% nosedive Friday, following similar sharp losses, at a time when Silver is showing excellent gains? I thought SSRIF was supposed to be a good leveraged silver play? Was thinking of buying some infact. The only news I can find is that they sttled a lawsuit Friday, but that looked favorable to them.... hmmm

Ted -- Loui and the gang didn't look too happy yesterday. Lots of talk about deflation and why it won't hurt the U.S. markets. :- ) )

They were all nervous, and it showed. The Japanese banking 'problem' is now making it in to the regular press. Talk about T-Bond sales is in the open now. Fact or fiction, the seed has been planted. Let's see what grows from this. If it is true about the sale of bonds by Japan, then bond market and stock markets will complete the decoupling. The inflation train is coming. After all, somebody has to buy those bonds...

You're opinion is well understood. That means you are an as...you have an opinion too. hmmmmmmmmm....thanks for joinin' the crew and read on...

There will be life ( and Gold ) discovered on your-anus soon enough...or could that be a boil..........

away...to board the rocket ship


what I suspected-didn't hurt me nice. Thanks.

I wouldn't be too concerned about Japanese redemptions. Even if they do some cashing out to cover their crises, the long build yield of 6% will attract plenty of buyres in these "deflationary" times.

Sunday, November 16, 1997 16 Heshvan 5758





Sources: Saddam tried to kill top UN inspector

By JAY BUSHINSKY and agencies

LONDON ( November 16 ) - The Iraqi regime plotted to assassinate the UN's former
chief arms inspector, Sweden's Rolf Ekeus, Iraqi opposition sources revealed yesterday.
A last-minute warning from their intelligence contacts in Baghdad saved the Swedish
diplomat's life.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was making unscheduled stops
today in Saudi Arabia and at least one other front-line Gulf state amid the deepening
crisis with Iraq over UN weapons inspections.

An informant deep inside Iraq's intelligence establishment notified the Iraqi National
Congress, the main opposition group seeking Hussein's overthrow, of the murder plot,
the sources said.

They said Ekeus was to have been given a dose of thallium, a lethal substance that has
no taste or odor, but which causes rapid physical deterioration and ultimately death.

Upon learning of this, INC president Ahmed Chalabi sent a letter to Ekeus alerting him
to the plot and urging him to take precautions. Ekeus was said to have verified the Iraqi
scheme through his own contacts and acted accordingly.

The sequence of events described by the Iraqi foes of Saddam Hussein based in
London, was as follows:

A meeting was held in Baghdad on February 15, 1996 under the chairmanship of Qusay
Hussein, a son of Saddam's, during which he called for Ekeus's murder upon his next
arrival in Baghdad. The assassins were to use a poison that would take effect after he
left Iraq.

In a letter to Ekeus dated nine days after the meeting, February 24, 1996, Chalabi
wrote:

"Qusay Hussein is reported to have said that Saddam blames you for the continuation of
the sanctions against Iraq. According to Qusay, Saddam holds Ekeus personally
responsible for Iraq's suffering, as well as for the non-implementation of UN Resolution
986.

"We urge your excellency to exercise all caution for yourself and your staff in dealing
with the Iraqi regime."

The exiled Iraqi opposition group's spokesman said Ekeus expressed his thanks to
Chalabi on two occasions after receipt of the letter.

The crisis over Iraq has prompted Albright to make unscheduled visits today to Saudi
Arabia and two other "front-line" states, Bahrain and Kuwait.

State Department spokesman James Rubin said the consultations would not involve
discussion of possible military deployments, but would focus on "the importance of
maintaining a policy of containment of Iraq."

Albright called warlike statements that appeared yesterday in the government-controlled
Iraqi media "highly irresponsible."

"Threatening us is not the answer," she said, imploring Saddam once again to comply
with UN Security Council resolutions.

A senior administration official said US President Bill Clinton spoke yesterday with
British Prime Minister Tony Blair on how to maintain Security Council unity in the search
for a diplomatic solution in Iraq.

They agreed each would phone other world leaders yesterday.

Asked about the prospects for military force, the official said, "we want to do this until
there is no hope ... The use of military force is an extension of your diplomatic efforts,
but the focus right now is on diplomacy."

Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz said yesterday that any Iraqi chemical weapons
built before the Gulf War would no longer function.

"If there had been production [of chemical weapons] before 1991, do you think the
material in the chemical weapons would still be active after seven years," Azis said on
France 2 television. "The scientists could decide" whether inspections are needed, he
said.

In London, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said he was brought into the picture on
the crisis during his meeting with Albright, and that he has a clear understanding of the
Clinton administration's intentions and capabilities. He said Israel's citizens could remain
calm and confident their safety is assured.

Thanks for your 16:47 Tyler. You had me worried about my silver for a second there pal! 500 mil would mean a huge decline in the price if it was sprung on the world market as a "real" number of upward revision.

Mike Sheller: What does your work suggest about the next couple of weeks' likely evolution of the US/Iraq confrontation? Do you see any patterns suggested in the interaction of horoscopes for any of the following: Saddam, Clinton, Iraq, US, major oil companies or oil service companies, and any other involved entities you may follow? Forgive me if this duplicates information you may have posted recently; I have not read all the posts this week.

TO LGB;
The only news ( old news I found ) is that the company reports the
resignation of Christopher M. T. Thompson as a director of Silver
Standard. Mr. Thompson, who joined the board of Silver Standard
in 1994 and provided valuable counsel in the ensuing years of
rapid growth, is pursuing other business interests.

Yeah, I saw last night's Louieeeeee show---always a must on Friday night.....that and the Simpsons----mix the 2 together and ya get somethin!

Au Contrair, your 16:43 is not as intellectually honest and agenda free as you would have us believe. Firstly, you're not comparing today's relative Gold value as Apples and Apples unless your baseline is the Gold price after a year or so of stabilization following the legislative change allowing U.S. citizens to own it once again. Once you do that, you're stuck with horrendous losses as far as relative value.

Secondly, I choose 1980 because that's when I purchased a home, and a Honda Civic DX sedan. I compared the relative ounces of Gold vs. those items for that reason because it was my own REAL WORLD comparison, instead of some phony exercise in theoretical possibility. You can take the surrounding years and you'll get results almost as poor for Gold.

In my own real world case, it would have taken anywhere from 4 to 12 times as many Gold coins today, to purchase the same house, insurance, automobile ( same model but 1997 ) , gallon of gasoline, diamond ring, major foodstuff's, and utility usage for heat and electicity. These REAL world comparisons do not lie. Wishful thinking exercises in theory, unfortunatley can and do misrepresent themselves.

Emerson, Lake, and Palmer rules! ( Saw them in concert last month, better than the Fleetwood mac concert we went to a couple weeks later! )

LGB:Good to see you back. Maybe you or some else can help me. IS there anywhere on the net that I can get daily Comex gold prices, hi, lo, etc. for spot prices and different contracts?

Girls, to be LGB's accessory is our next goal. Go to it, and report back
to us at Kitco.

Try the GoldEagle Futures page http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/futures.html

This could make for interesting trading on Monday;

Friday November 14, 4:18 pm Eastern Time

Company Press Release

Report to Shareholders

TORONTO, ONTARIO, CANADA-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Nov. 14, 1997--The Board of Directors of International Precious Metals Corporation ( IPM ) ( Nasdaq:IPMCF - news; CDN/OTC:IPMC ) is pleased to announce the following progress and milestones in the development of the company's Black Rock Project located in Arizona.

-- Confirmation of an assay procedure for gold in Black Rock

material

-- Completion of independent verification program confirms the

presence of gold and platinum

Capital raising and use of proceeds Bateman Engineering's ongoing and expanded Development Program



These milestones have come together at a time when IPM is looking to forge ahead in the determination of the economics of the Black Rock Project. The company is now finally positioned to move from the long-term research and development mode, to the final assessment of Black Rock's economic viability.

Confirmation of Assay Procedures Verification of Gold and Platinum

LGB: Thanks for quote location. It looks like a good location for all commodity prices but need to check it out more. Didn't notice cash price but maybe I missed it.

Cherokee; WW; Tort; or other lawyers: What do we do if COMEX just says "whoops" and folds??? What is our legal recourse?? ...Anyone?...ideas?

Savage, I asked a similar question a few months ago, not what happens if Comex falls but what happens if they change the rules - move the goal-posts - in a reprise of the Hunt steam-rolling.

Here is the reply I got from Tim, who should be getting paid twice for this !!!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 14:42 Tim ( @the.law.library ) :
Aurator ( 13:19 ) : I think you have asked this question before,
with no response - am I right ? I regret that time constraints
prevent me from conducting a thorough analysis, but here is a
very brief synopsis: The commodities futures markets are
subject to the following Acts of Congress ( and associated
Regulations ) : Grain Futures Act ( GFA ) of 1922, Commodity
Exchange Act ( CEA ) of 1936, and Commodity Futures Trading
Commission Act ( CFTCA ) of 1974. Within those statutes,
Congress has conferred broad authority on the exchanges and the
CFTC to declare "market emergency" conditions. The aim of this
power ( apparently ) was to counter market manipulation, in
particular, the type of "cornering" of a market attempted by the
Hunts. The statutes contain grievance and arbitration provisions (
ie. internal remedies ) ; if these are unsuccessful, recourse may
be had to the courts. In Sam Wong & Son, Inc. v New York
Mercantile Exchange ( 1984, CA2 NY ) 735 F2d 653, the court held
that a private cause of action existed for a holder of net long
positions in potato futures contracts, who alleged unlawful
action on part of the exchange and its board of governors in the
adoption of emergency rules in response to a developing crisis
concerning potato futures contracts. The court held that the
appropriate standard of liability in such actions is "bad faith" (
ie. on the part of the exchange ) . In such court actions, it
probably would not be necessary to resort to principles of
natural justice ( usually the last resort of a desperate litigator )
; principles of administrative law ( eg. whether the exercise of
the power by the agency was ultra vires, whether it was
exercised for a proper purpose, etc. ) would probably suffice.
Hope this has been of assistance. Expect my outrageous bill in the
mail ( only kidding! ) .

I see the market staying in the 20 to 21 dollar per bbl til next year. This does not take into account Iraq. A military response IMHO will push the price to 25 to 27. If it gets nasty 30 is not out of the question. As the asian troubles havent sent the price down 2 to 3 dollars shows the oil companys see continued demand there. Some of the oil company stocks that have a lot of Asian exposure have seen their price driven down ( Mobil ) but the price of oil has not went down. For the next two to three years I see oil trending to the 25 to 27 dollar range. My reasons are the following. Drillers are stacked up for 9 months. If oil goes to 100 dollars a bbl ther are not, for practical purposes, any available drilling rigs. Remember all those 4000+ drilling rigs in 1982? Hughes figures 1400 are available or are in working condition. The rest either are or soon will be scrap. They reached the end of their usefull life. From my contacts in Houston and South La. they are building offshore rigs as hard as they can. But these are high capital projects. And these rigs have contracts that will pay for them. Onshore, the drillers do know come here from sickum. The oil companys demanding they gear up is being met with a lot of resistance. If an oil company wants a drilling rig they have to give the drillers commitments. The ones that survived the 1980's and 90's are not dummies. It will take two years for the oil patch to gear up if the oil prices take off. and another year to 18 months for this new production to reach the market. Another problem is crews. Those that wern't starved out in the 80's are working. Those that were starved out will never come back to this crapshoot. Young guys 20 to 25 dont want to do this kind of work. And companys have a hard time getting 50 percent of their new hires to pass the pee test!

Tyler Rose- How about giving me a call at the above address. Thanks!

Tally Ho

MOB @ 73.625 ( 52 week range= 78-58.69 )

Looks like fingers eliminated EB.