haggis - Thanks for your interesting post. You said one thing that piqued my curiosity and that was that the "Rothchilds set the gold price in London." How do you figure they do this? If this is the case, it tends to throw light on the gold bear market we are witnessing, more or less.

tw - I like en also at this price. Am out right now but will be in soon. The two gov's ( US/Japan ) want a more even balance of trade ( yeah right ) . This current rate of exchange is not good for Bizz ( US bizz ) . This, imo, will change pretty soon. But not until things go sideways for a spell. The US$ is still a quality item on the block. Until this changes the en will stagnate ( not to mention the terrible situation the economy is in ) . Mark and Swiss wil rule the moment. I assume you hold March calls. Time is the only redemption here ( and your calls may suffer time decay ) for the en will not stay here for long, imo. Donald may have a different opine, eh Don the KING?? Consider selling calls against your position and turn the free trade when you can. It may be a rocky road.

LGB - I'll make this brief so others don't get any ideas of our love for each other...E.L.P. does rock...and you ARE an old ( er ) fart. Rock on...

Panda - Get off your furry duff and get us some goood charts!!!!!! HOw is the Captain 2-nite??

Haystack - http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/charts32s.exe?chart=Gold+Futures&month=Dec+%2797 this is my favorite place for delayed stuff. Bart's pages should suffice for cash prices....no?

now.......


What is the big deal about Silver?!?? I still se a good deal of weakness in the market. Largely due to the Gold-Dog perhaps. The charts are making the proper corrections and the next move I see is DOWN. I realize the funny-mentals say otherwise, BUT, lets get real. This market can exclude itself from gold...but will it?? Get me TA reasons for this please...really...

away...to the pretender


sorry for the typos........in advance.......

Aurator: I like your post of what is done if the Hunts or some other group try to corner the Silver market -- "bad faith" or "natural justice"
ie -- nothing! Sure looks like there are no real safeguard in place, other than the CFTC declaring "emergency conditions", whatever that is. My guess is the average trader would not know until after the market was closed.
As I recall, what happened with the Hunts is that the exchange closed the markets while the Hunts were long, and when the market reopened, the silver price had dropped, and the Hunts were wiped out. Something to that effect -- and I think if you were not an insider to what happened, and you were a small trader who was long you would have been wiped out too!
Perhaps some other Kitcoites know more details than I about that notorious attempt by the Hunts to corner silver.

Only desperate people hang out @ kitco on Sat. night~~~~~~~~~~go gold and Canadian Dollar.....looks like the nics did a # on the Kings...

Lurker oo7 the reality is that MOB has invested a tremendous amount of capital in Indonesia in the last ten years. The other seven sisters that do not have as extensive exposure in Asia have not been rocked as hard.

Crunch, perhaps Haggis meant

http://www.kitco.com/london.fix.article.html

Dinner time soon for aurator

XON + MOB have had similar price moves.

I don't recall which ones but I think the announcement by the German CB stated that they loaned gold to jewelry concerns and to producers ( mines ) to sell foward - I concluded jewelers would take physical.

XON @ 60+ 15/16 ( 52 week range= 67.25-44.375 ) XON has more $ invested in Asia than MOB.

for Neil
Except for a few offerings from Bernatz de Ventadorm, your 13:34
of November 15 was one of the most intelligent and insightful things
Ive seen on Kitco in weeks. Not only that, your English is a bit
better than Bernatz's. Please post more on the point of bull markets
in paper instruments and their effect on money supply/demand goods and
services/inflation. Some historical parallels would be useful - like
the oil price collapse in the mid 1980/coincident with a bull stock
market and events preceeding the early 1993 gold bull ( when bonds were
going crazy ) .
What were the events that triggerred ( or the lead indicators that identified ) the change in mode??Of course,if we knew that, we'd know everything.

JTF Sheller

Here is some research I did many years ago, and lost, and recently re-discovered Dates & Data

**COMEX v Hunt 1979-80**


1979 Sept margins 7,500
Oct 6 Paul Volker requests US banks to avoid loans for speculation, especially precious metals
Oct 29 CFTC told COMEX to impose position limits. COMEX said no, but did increase margins: so that anyone holding over 251 contracts must pay $30,000 for each contract
Nov 4 US embassy staff in Tehran taken hostage
Nov 6 COMEX meets Bunker Hunt and decides not to implement Oct 29 resolution until Feb 4
Dec 28 Ag at $29.35 1980
Jan 7 COMEX decision to implement position limits of 500 contracts for each delivery month and meet with CFTC next day
Jan 8 COMEX announces limit positions to be effective Feb 18 ( ? )
Jan 9 COMEX decreases number of new positions to 50 and increases margins again to $75,000 in spot month and to $40,000 for holders of over 251 contracts.
Jan 14 Ag at $42.50
Jan 18 Ag at $50.36 COMEX and $52.50 on CBOT
Jan 18 COMEX delays opening, then opens trade to liquidate only and imposes increased margins
March 26 COMEX dropped margin requirements to $25,000 Ag at $15.80
March 27 Silver Thursday silver $10.80 by lunch
March 31 Hunt to pay $665 million to Engelhard for the EFP of 19 million oz at $35 per oz ( the biggest deal in the history of silver ( even bigger than Jarekis Mincato sale of 23 Moz in Oct million oz at $35 per oz ( the biggest deal in the history of silver ( even bigger than Jarekis Mincato sale of 23 Moz in Oct 1979 ) There was also a second payment due to Englehard for11 Moz due for payment early summer


AT peak, HUNT and Associates controlled 280 Moz silver, which, says Stephen Fay, was 80% of Ag production in 1979.
Dr Jareki, Mocatta Metals estimated that 20-50 Moz were estimates of silver that were melted by public. He says best estimate may be 25M oz which was a lot of silver to come out of the woodwork.
Englehard was 27.6% controlled by Harry Oppenheimer of Anglo American Corporation.

Get lost! no-it-all

Puetz: Any comments on my 13:34? Inflation vs. deflation.

Good night all!-:





Drop in gold price stirs shutdown fears

Dip near key $300-level threatens jobs, mines

Saturday, November 15, 1997
By Allan Robinson
Mining Reporter

The price of gold fell near the crucial $300- ( U.S. ) -an-ounce level yesterday, raising the fear that
some gold mines around the world will have to shut down.

Gold has not traded as low as this since February, 1985, and is down from $366 early this year.

The price dropped as much as $9 an ounce yesterday, causing gold traders and technical analysts to
pore over their charts to figure out where gold might go from here, but behind those blips on their
computer screens are mines and jobs in jeopardy.

One company, Royal Oak Mines Inc. of Kirkland, Wash., said yesterday that it would do what is
necessary -- including company-wide layoffs -- to keep its mines open and generating cash.

And after the stock market closed, Pegasus Gold Inc. of Spokane, Wash., said it was writing
down the value of its assets by $396.8-million and planning the closure of its Mount Todd gold mine
in Australia. The company said it was in default on $150-million in loans and depending on the
actions taken by its creditors, it has the financial resources to operate through 1998.

Gold briefly sank below $300 yesterday morning to a new 12-year low as trading got under way
in New York and was winding down in London, but it managed to recover. It closed at $303.70,
down $4.50 an ounce.

For the most part, the damage done in recent months has been limited to hundreds of millions of
dollars in writedowns as bookkeepers realize that money invested in gold mines and various
exploration ventures is not likely to be recovered soon, if at all.

The real pain will be felt by peasant gold miners panning for gold and digging trenches around the
world by hand to eke out an existence, said Victor Flores, a gold mining analyst for Marleau Lemire
Securities Ltd. of Toronto.

Those miners in Latin America and Africa have seen the local price of gold plummet, which makes
their physical time and labour worthless, he said.

Already, the effects of low gold prices can be seen in the reduced gold production from Brazil, Mr.
Flores said.

There will also be shutdowns of high-cost mines in Australia and South Africa, he said.

"It's not going to be a case of the whole industry shutting down," Mr. Flores said. In South Africa,
producers will close a certain percentage of their high-cost shafts, and in Australia and North
America higher-cost mines might be closed.

"If they are caught in a trap, they are going to chew their leg off to get out of it," he said.

In North America, the average cash cost of producing an ounce of gold is about $260 an ounce and
the overall cost including depreciation and other non-cash costs is $325 an ounce, said John Ing, the
president of investment dealer Maison Placements Inc., of Toronto.

Some higher-cost mines could be shut, Mr. Ing said. Other mining companies will use their low-cost
mines to subsidize their high-cost mines to avoid huge mine closing costs. Almost all companies will
be looking at ways to prune expenses.

There also continues to be speculation that North American gold producers will be forced to reduce
the amount of their estimated gold reserves -- the underpinning of their stock prices -- because the
low price of gold makes some of their reserves uneconomic to mine.

North American companies most often cited by analysts as facing the prospects of mine closures
included Echo Bay Mines Ltd. , Pegasus Gold and Royal Oak.

Royal Oak said that in the face of the drop in the price of gold, it plans to selectively mine only the
high-grade areas in its Timmins, Ont., gold mine and Giant gold mine at Yellowknife, NWT. The
company said that positive cash can be generated when gold is trading at less than $300 an ounce.

Royal Oak said it is taking these steps to ensure there will be sufficient cash to complete the
$430-million ( Canadian ) construction of its Kemess gold and copper mine in British Columbia.

The company said it has no plans at present to close its gold mining operations at Timmins and
Yellowknife.

The negative sentiment toward gold continues to focus on the possibility of central banks selling their
reserves and depressing the price. There are also concerns Far East buyers of gold might be turning
into sellers as they try to raise cash amid currency crises and liquidity problems. There are banks in
trouble in Asia and Latin America.

"We are in an emotional low now and sentiment can turn around very quickly," Mr. Ing said.

Some traders suggest that, technically, the next crucial point for gold is $284.25 ( U.S. ) an ounce,
which is the lowest price it reached in 1985, were it to seriously breach the $300 level. Gold last
traded below $285 an ounce in 1979.

"This is prompted by what is happening overseas -- the Asian flu," Mr. Ing said. "Wealth is
disappearing."

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We welcome your comments.
Copyright  1997, The Globe and Mail Company
All rights reserved.

Aurator: Thanks for response. But, what if there is no COMEX standing to litigate. ...as in, "there's no gold left to back up anything; sorry, Comex has dissolved!"......thoughts????

Savage, I was taught company law by a wily New Yorker, He taught what the law is not rather than what the law is. He used to say

"You'd be left sucking wind."

All New Yorkers are wily* --G'nite mate!!

Gus McNeill @ 12:52 - "...I am still sorry I ever came in contact with this site and most of the people on it."
After reading this asinine comment I have one myself. Do EVERYONE including yourself a favour and LEAVE.
rmw @12:58 - You OBVIOUSLY have very POOR logic to make a statement such as this: "...Paradoxically this is the last place you should come for advice on any subject since this is where your troubles began in the first place." - I suggest a long vacation with some college texts on logic. THEN come back and try to defend or explain the meaning of the above sentence.
Steve- WE constantly try and re-explain things that should have been obvious the first time we said them. It's almost a totally futile effort when dealing with the ones who like to operate with blinders on or with those whose intent is merely to harass or ridicule. Sometimes its best to make a judgement call and ignore the annoying creatures entirely. Now if I could only live by my own advice!

What'sa matta you Mooney? bad mood or somethin? It IS late I know. Just what if Gus is for real, hmmm? Are gold bugs THAT heartless my man? Don'tcha know there's a Kitco Lovefest goin on tonight? What with the full moon and all... Dude, lighten up eh?

O'Right

lissen now

no-one, I mean noone ( Another & JTF ) knows the future. But some of us have a nose for the future, and some of us see the past ( and sea the past ) and some of us think we're saints and some know ( no ) we're sinners... and many just don't care one way or the other.... but each one of us, each earth-bound-water-skin-bag-module-human-bean with a heart of gold.. each one of us has a brain.... has a mind, has to make decisions in this world.... to come on to this line and bleat..... like a ausstralian sheep just before the wet......that someone gave you bad advice......I do sympathise with you.... It is an early lesson to learn....it may have been learnt cheap, it may have taken you out of the gaime....but you have learnt your lesson Guss -ette ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Look, tonite i have published some of my work, what are you going to do? are yoe going to take me at my word ( is my bondage ) or are you going to do your own homework?

dinner time

Aurator: I hope I'm wrong...but, I suspect that is something close to what they have planned for us. The disappearing ( deliverable ) gold may turn out to be not such a "bullish" sign for those left holding the bag. ( filled with worthless promises to pay/paper options ) Again, I hope I'm wrong, because I hold a "few" gold call options. Nevertheless, a "package" of physical, stocks and options seems to be a more prudent play than having all our eggs in one basket. Did I mention land, good old farm land seems to be the wisest choice. Maybe those Amish knew something!

TOP OF COVER FEATURE ARTICLE IN NOV. ISSUE OF WORTH MAGAZINE, BY NONE
OTHER THAN PETER LYNCH, FORMER HEAD OF FIDELITY MAGELLAN FUND.
LYNCH HAS BEEN PROVEN OVER MANY YEARS TO BE ONE OF THE SMARTEST FUND
MANAGERS ON THE PLANET. IF HE SAYS SOMETHING AS A PREDICTION IN THE
MARKET, YOU CAN PRETTY MUCH TAKE IT TO THE BANK.
HIS ARTICLE IS, "WHY YOU SHOULD BUY GOLD IN THIS ECONOMY".

TOP OF COVER FEATURE ARTICLE IN NOV. ISSUE OF WORTH MAGAZINE, BY NONE
OTHER THAN PETER LYNCH, FORMER HEAD OF FIDELITY MAGELLAN FUND.
LYNCH HAS BEEN PROVEN OVER MANY YEARS TO BE ONE OF THE SMARTEST FUND
MANAGERS ON THE PLANET. IF HE SAYS SOMETHING AS A PREDICTION IN THE
MARKET, YOU CAN PRETTY MUCH TAKE IT TO THE BANK.
HIS ARTICLE IS, "WHY YOU SHOULD BUY GOLD IN THIS ECONOMY".

EB: The trend is not always your friend. I was there when coffee skyrocketted; ( while trend d-o-w-n ) ; shorting it, with ( to me ) a large position... I remember...my wife really remembers ( and reminds ) . No, EB, I knew Mr Trend. And He was no friend of mine...

Aurator: Saw your post to Gus. Have been practicing my no ones, but they still keep coming out noone, and I don't think I'll change despite the implications.
With regard to ANOTHER- I finally discerned why his comments are often so puzzling. We have on this site day traders such as the Oldman, RJ, and EB, short term traders, such as Nick, and numerous investors, including myself. The longest most of us think in is years. But there is another group -- those that think in decades or longer -- and already have accumulated their wealth -- such as the Rothschilds, and the Rockefellers ( and others ) . These two families would be acutely aware of the real risk of financial collapse, and the loss of all of their assets if they were not in safe keeping. ANOTHER has this mindset as well -- did you see his post to me about the BIS being founded by Baron von ( ? ) Rothschild -- and how I should have met him? The reason we have trouble understanding ANOTHER is that he has his money -- and thinks in decades, not the days, years or months the rest of us think in.
No wonder we have trouble understanding him when time for us runs much faster than it does for him.

Your comments to Gus are well taken. I get upset everytime there is turmoil on Kitco where other gold bugs blame the "guru's" for their failures. Hope noone thinks I am a guru. My opinion on all this is that we are all responsible for our actions, and should take the free advice on Kitco for what we paid for it -- nothing!
What really excites me about Kitco is the process -- I am learning how to do my own investing the way I want to do it -- and the rest of us should do the same. If we are blindly taking the advise of others, we are doomed to failure.

Still don't know how you got the full moon on Friday when at the same time it was Thursday where I was and I did not have a full moon! Seriously though, I hope youre fully moved in! Good night!

Komrade Puetz; KGB haf vays not knowed in Vree Vorld.
To make long story short, KGB mayk in-depth
studies uf vell known nut cases for pozzible future
Agenzy documentation. Vee tail guy and learn, rest is
History.
Zee not hurt guy, just vant to know vat mak feet tick.
Vhy guy like pollish shoes, vee not know.

Thank you -10c ( @north ) for the lead to this site excellent!!!
It Could be called GOLD ECONOMICS 101
A must read by all !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Date: Sat Nov 15 1997 20:29
-10 c ( @north ) ID#204295:
supply-side economics inflation, deflation, Gold as a Constant,
http://www.polyconomics.com/univ.htm
weekend school in supply-side economics

June 20, 1997

Supply-Side Economics Summer School Lesson #2

Memo To: Students of Supply-Side University
From: Jude Wanniski
Re: Who Should Hold the Gold?

Very few opponents of "a gold standard" know what it is or how it works or how many different ways there are to link paper money to gold. The question arises again and again: "How can we be on a gold standard when there is so little gold and so much money needed to finance this enormous world economy?" The answer is that it is the function of the central bank only to maintain the "standard," the "unit of account," and the rest of the world will create its own money around that standard. I first learned this from Karl Marx, who was a great fan of David Ricardo and the gold standard. Marx pointed out that in any village of Europe, everything for sale was quoted in terms of the gold price, even though
there was not an ounce of gold within many miles of the village. Gold provided a common understanding of the value of all things, enabling people to reckon how many chickens they would have to bring to market to sell in order to exchange for so many gallons of milk or sticks of lumber.

The chief function of money is as an accounting unit. If the Eurocrats understood
that, they would go back to the drawing boards and build a monetary system from that assumption. This would require them to first fix the Eurocurrency to something the markets would understand as being a reliable unit of account. What? The answer is the dollar, the worlds key currency, except that the dollar still wobbles around relative to the gold price. The Euro would be possible, but only if the dollar is first fixed in value to gold. Then, the European nations in the Eurocurrency system would have a credible unit of account as their anchor. 

...The chief function of money is as an accounting unit. If the Eurocrats understood
that, they would go back to the drawing boards and build a monetary system from that assumption. This would require them to first fix the Eurocurrency to something the markets would understand as being a reliable unit of account. What? The answer is the dollar, the worlds key currency, except that the dollar still wobbles around relative to the gold price. The Euro would be possible, but only if the dollar is first fixed in value to gold. Then, the European nations in the Eurocurrency system would have a credible unit of account as their anchor.

NOTE: ONLY IF THE DOLLAR IS FIXED TO GOLD!

"To broadly answer Feeleys question about who should hold the gold, Id like to wrap up this session by suggesting you think about the proposition that it almost does not matter. That is because there is so little gold in the world. If the Washington monument were made of gold, the entire 120,000 metric tons of gold mined over the last several thousand years would only be enough to build the base of the monument, about a third of the way up. When Alan Greenspan was asked last year why gold is so much more important than any other commodity, he said it was because the stock of gold is so large relative to its flow. By that, he meant the world inventory of gold, at 120,000 metric tons, is enormous relative to its annual "consumption," as new industrial gold use, jewelry and monetary reserves, about 3,000 metric tons. The world reserves, or stock of wheat, on the other hand, are only a fraction of the annual consumption, or "flow." The market is therefore not much concerned about where the gold is held. It is keenly interested in the economic
philosophies of the governments and central banks who are managing their currencies with respect to the gold stock."

Insert the word OIL for wheat above and think about it a minute and you will understand. Gold no flow reserve commodity vs. Oil or Wheat a max flow no reserve depleteing commodity.

If Kitconites read and study this information and tie it together with Anothers Thoughts and others at this site, they will begin to form a complete and accurate historical and current picture of the relationship of Gold/ Oil/ Currencies/ Central Banks/ Euro/ Bonds/ Inflation/ Deflation Etc. Etc.

A must read for all !!!!!
http://www.polyconomics.com/searchbase/sumles2.html

Two gold producers that have been consistently profitable over the years and hit hard over the past few weeks:
http://www.prime-res.com and http://www.richmont-mines.com
Both have excellent balance sheets, good management and make money.
Prime Resources is also a major silver producer.
Richmont bought out LAC Mineral's 50% interest in the Francouer Mine in the early 90's and made it profitable. I think that a number of Quebec mines formerly run unprofitably by the majors may have simular success under new managers.

Highrise that last link has it all, including whales

When the floating began, how easy it was
for the currency traders at the giant money-center banks in New York and London to
infiltrate the IMF, to profit at the expense of the poorest people on earth. For the past
two decades, the IMF has roamed the earth like a black whale, feasting on the poor,
developing nations, while the scavenger fish accompany it to feed themselves.

After reading some of your previous posts, I would much highly
advise you finish 8th grade economics 101. Of course I always enjoy
a good laugh before I hit the hay.

WHEN WILL THE CRASH OCCUR IN THE US?
http://home1.pacific.net.sg/~viclim/inv00020.htm

THE KOREA TIMEBOMB
"A CRASH OCCURS WHEN THERE IS A DRAMATIC UPSET TO THE PREVAILING EXPECTATIONS OF INVESTORS"
http://home1.pacific.net.sg/~viclim/inv00021.htm


LGB
It was not I . re anybody.
I was asleep. .....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
I had stayed up till 6am local time before departing.
Arising 3:30pm.---a well earned sleep.

I seek not to attack.
More so to point out perceptions.
I allude to the life of a pacifist.
Good morning.
ps your spell checker is asleep.

Nick G'day, you're keeping anti-circadian rhythms @present?..just watch out for the y2k bugs and the pod-people, they'll wear you down. ps plse see my earlier re NZ databank ( mostly ) non-event.

sea you in the soup

Time to hit the hay

Hoosier -- One can never exactly know the full ramification of a global liquidity/debt-confidence problem. Perhaps it may melt-down to bartering and personal and corporate IOUs substituting for government 'mandated' confidence notes. Not a pretty site, regardless of the verbage and colors used, but our debt-colored monetary system is not pretty in its' own right either! Should 'paper' ever again regain 'popularity' after such an event, I would think that the old colored ink by then would certainly be very aged! Before then, only a collector would want to take up space with them for so many years. But perhaps so many of them would have been destroyed by then making the rest 'valuable'. Probably not in our lifetime as TOO many people wouldn't even want to look at them again!

LGB - YOU ARE NOT WELCOMED BACK!!!!! You low life Puke!

You promised not to come back!! All these asinine aliases you keep coming up with to praise yourself or applaud your return is sheer LGB style moronicism.

Now beat it Puke, take that trip to Tahoe and DON'T COME BACK!!! GOT IT!!!

LGB, AHUH, AHUH, I'm gonna use that SLINGBLADE ON YA!!

LGB, ah, duh, welcome back!

LGB, ah duh, welcome back. ah, duh, really missed your vindictive behavior and attacks on those sharing their thoughts and ideas.

LGB, uh, duh, Really missed your fixation with ANUSES. You really provided some meaningful dialog on this subject. Good use of bandwidth! Happy you are back! Also enjoyed your "BITCH SLAPPING" episodes! Also your wonderful confession expaining your staus as an engineer, "SANITATION ENGINEER" and your award for coining the phrase, "WOM BAK", for "Come On Back." You sound like a REAL genius!

Morning to All those Dear Familiar Faces!

What with electric storms frying our phones [& my modem], and uncovering dark deeds in the stables as well as ? possible collusive omissions from the Town Planner & potential buyers for here, it seems I have missed SO much!

Thanks Nick and JTF for COMEX Swiss Bank email [if one leaves out the 'w', it becomes a good RSA word!!]

Please enlighten me?

- WHY is the Swiss Bank Corp handing over to the Republic National Bank?

-IN WHICH country is the Republic National Bank, and who runs it?

Thanks, if you can.








]
And it's been really difficult getting in, you know Bart?

HEY EVERYONE - LEAVE LGB ALONE!!! That's right - just IGNORE HIM!!! I realize hi is truly an idiot and belongs in a NUT HOUSE, BUT LEAVE HIM ALONE - HE IS A FIEND!!!!!!!!!

Oh dear! An hour's interruption whilst in the middle of my message, and I now find that the children are once again at play.

I'm off- see you tomorrow.

A test

All: Iraq one week away from making 'germ weapons'
From the Times:
http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/97/11/14/timfgnfgn02010.html?1124027

Arab "Boycott of Economic talks "last nail in peace coffin' -the Times again.
http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/97/11/14/timfgnfgn01003.html?1124027

To all that suggest today is different, that things are new, and that we are seeing things that have never happened before. I offer up the following:

I have but one lamp by which my feet are guided, and that is the lamp of experience. I know of no way of judging the future but by the past.

Patrick Henry

The following excerpt is the lead in to an article that appears on http://strategicinvestment.com

"The public psychology of going into debt for gain passes through several more or less distinct phases: ( a ) the lure of big prospective dividends or gains in income in the remote future; ( b ) the hope of selling at a profit, and realizing a capital gain in the immediate future; ( c ) the vogue of reckless promotions, taking advantage of the habituation of the public to great expectations; ( d ) the development of downright fraud, imposing on a public which had grown credulous and gullible." -Irving Fisher, ECONOMETRICA, Journal of the Econometric Society, Volume 1 1933.

"Iraqis Stock up before 'Fight'" -- More political maneuvers by Saddam, or the real thing?
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-11/16/246l-111697-idx.html

Yamaichi Securities to Cut Staff, Change Internal Operations

Yamaichi Securities Co. will cut its staff by a third in just over two years and will shake up its
internal organization by April, the Nihon Keizai newspaper said, citing company officials. Internally
Yamaichi will split into three units, comprising a wholesale department for dealing with institutional
investors, a retail department for individual investors, and an administrative unit. By April 2000 it
will slash staff to 5,000 from 7,500 and will introduce a performance related pay system for 1,900
employees who have a management role, the report said. ( 8602 JP CN )

Turmoil in Asia, Middle East Casts Shadow: U.S. Stocks Outlook

Rising tensions in the Middle East and lingering uncertainty about the prospects for Southeast Asian
economies will cast a pall over the U.S. stock market in the days ahead, investors said. The United
States sent a second aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf after the United Nations Security Council
warned Iraq of ``serious consequences'' if it refuses to allow normal weapons inspections to
resume. At the same time, investors are concerned a slowdown in Asian economies will cause
profits of U.S. multinationals companies to suffer next year. Investors said at the start of the week
that stocks could ``test their lows'' -- market jargon for dropping back to levels reached Oct. 27,
when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 554 points. That seemed like a reasonable
possibility on Wednesday, when the Dow fell 157, though it looked less likely after the Dow gained
86 points Thursday and 84 points Friday.

Donald,tolerant1: Sanity has returned to Kitco. Full moon effect over?

I thought winter time was here, and the Middle East would be quiet until spring -- troops can't move. Perhaps this time Saddam will just use his missles.
By the way -- how do you paste into a comment on Kitco ?
ctrl-v doesn't do anything for me. Where does the other document have to be?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/ibca_says_japan_shou_1.html

JTF: You must realize that a great deal of what is written is propaganda. From both sides, the rhetoric is simply that. This whole thing is about money. Look to the Caspian for the basis of this comment. Trillions are at stake, countries and companies are rushing in like drunks to a saloon.

Iraq is a flea militarily. I stated just a few short weeks ago that if allowed, a very small team could easily dispatch to that country and kill Mr Hussein. This is not a mission for the amount of weaponry that is currently bobbing about off shore in the oceans.

The little boys in the State Department are arrogant and their game plan is pathetic and dangerous to say the least. Bill Clinton has no foreign policy that one could consider a plan of any sort.

There is no honor in what the United States is doing, none.

But who could expect anything less from this President.

The pictures of dead children will ignite the entire umbrella of Islam.

Hi JTF. Sorry to mess up a nice Sunday with that last post. Greenspan had to know this stuff when he gave testimony the other day. How much can the world absorb? Iraq, Comex, Japan, Brazil, Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Hong Kong, etc. Please, the fundamentals are sound?, Give me a break.

JTF - Donald: Happy Sunday to you both. I have never pasted into a post. I am not sure how this is done.

Colleen: Just in case you return to find the sanity of the moment -- I did get most of your Crooke graphs -- got most on paper. PDF files the best, others partial success. I won't post this stuff on Kitco -- because I still don't understand the quantization business. His short-term comments about the markets seem overly simplified. What really intrigues me is the correlation between the markets, tidal peaks, and the ElNino's. Unfortunately so far I have been unable to confirm dates of same from another source. Can't find historical info on Bay of Fundy tides dating back to 1850, or non-graphical time series on ElNino/ENSO temperatures or pressure gradients. Do have extensive SUNPOT data - but this is not useful without the other data. I can't corroborate ( for the moment ) any ElNino behavior and the 1929-1933 great depression/dustbowl weather. This could be highly significant if this info could be deciphered - tho disturbing to some if true.
I have long thought that human cycles and long term weather cycles were connected -- would be interesting if the Kondratiev wave had a weather-related component to it. Would be very important to know if it did.
Hope all is well in your part of the world. I know S Africa relies heavily on their income from Gold mining -- so be careful!

JTF: The way I do it is to hold down the left mouse button and highlight the text you want to "lift" After fully highlighted, hold down Ctrl-C and
what was highlighted is now in computer memory. It can be dropped in the Kitco comment box or into a word processing package with Ctrl-V.

Good mornin all....It's a sunny but chilly ( 34 F ) day....GO Roughriders!!

Clearly Mr. Greenspan is less than reliable. JTF I understand you taking me to task the other day. But, I am a firm believer in taking one's lumps and starting anew. Mr. Greenspan, Mr. Rubin, etc. are playing a deadly game with the lives and economic survival of people worldwide.

People in this market will get slaughtered as they try to save the system. I am starting to lean to deflation as the economic noose around our collective necks.

This is based on the sound writings of many that I follow. I pay roughly $1500.00 a year for informational services. Deflation seems to be on the minds of the majority of these people.

People are not prepared no matter what the event.

Hi Ted: 34F here also, no wind and a hint of sun. Be sure to read my post about Japan banks a few minutes ago.

Donald: I enjoy reading any news from you -- even bad stuff! I don't let it bother me. The troubles at work with the primadonnas who want everything and call me for it cause more trouble for me than any news from you. Knowing you, and your personality makes reading anything you post a pleasure to review! Wish I could say the same of some of our other Kitcoites who periodically return to annoy. I do not see what they get out of it -- reminds me of some teenage children I know - tho mine are ( usually ) better behaved.
Tolerant1: As you can see from my Crook post, I do not believe anything uncorroborated. I know we could ( or should ) have been able to bump off Saddam long ago -- the message I got was that we did not want a power vacuum.

Unfortunately, I disagree with you on one point -- Saddam may be a flea militarily, but the frustration with Israel ( or whatever it is ) among other Arab nations has allied them against the US - secret treaties between Syria,Iran,Iraq, and Egypt. Trouble ahead that because Saddam will ignite larger conflicts with his antipersonnel missles, I think.
I suspect Saddam sees the end of his life coming -- and wants to go down in history as a martyr to the Arab cause. What else has he got left?
He's probably running out of gold to pay his personal security forces. When that goes, the pieces of his body will be so small that noone will be able to find him, except by molecular analysis. Just my opinion, and you can take it for how much you paid for it!
Strangely enough, I am just happy this morning that there are sane people on Kitco who can look adversity in the face. "Forewarned is Forearmed", as they say.
I also enjoy the good things in life, too - though for me they are simple and near home - hiking, communicating with friends etc. Can't afford whirlwind trips to the Bahamas, or Puerte Vallarte ( sp? ) .

HighRise
yes good site, i was looking for something like the info at this site.
banks holdings look stable to me??? must be my eyes.


http://www2.bdl.gov.lb/bdl/edata/charts/hi-r.htm

Monthly Commercial Banks Data gold holdings

Morning Ted- from midamerica. 25degrees Farenheit, and clear as a bell. Think I am ready for some ( mini ) mountain climbing. Can see about 25 miles from the top -- with Red tailed Hawks circling on the thermals as they pass from west to east, and the barges passing by on the river. Dryer than usual this year. Leaf season is in full bloom as well - very unsual as this part of the world usually has a warm fall, and the deciduous trees don't turn. But this year -- it is just as beautiful as Vermont when it changes.
Donald -- I would guess that you have already had your leaf season trip to the mountains.
Off -- to do my chores -- will check in later.

November 16, 7:27 am Eastern Time

Dubai Oct silver re-exports to India at 76.426 T

DUBAI, Nov 16 ( Reuters ) - Dubai's silver re-exports to India dropped to 76.426 tonnes in October from 91.852 in September,
according to the statistics section of Dubai Customs.

But the figure was nearly 70 percent more than re-exports during the same month last year which stood at 45.402 tonnes.

Dubai is the main gold and silver re-export centre to the Indian subcontinent. GOLD The World Gold Council ( WGC ) -- which represents most of the world's major producers -- predicts Indian consumption will reach
650-700 tonnes this year, up from 508 tonnes in 1996. QUESTION? How many ounces in a tonne? Are these troy ounces and lbs?

Japan: MoF Screening International Banks
Only 15-20 Banks satisfy BIS Second Regulation

The MoF has started to screen banks which have overseas operations. The BIS capital requirement against risks becomes effective at the end of March 1998. In response to this, the MoF sets up the standard of risk management and control system for Japanese banks. After this screening, only 15-20 banks are expected to satisfy the standard of the Second Regulation. As a result, Japanese banks become either international banks providing full-range-service or domestic-only banks providing specialized services.

tolerant1: I agree with you that Alan Greenspan is playing a dangerous game -- alot is at stake. I guess it may be worthwhile if you think for a minute what you would do if you were Alan Greenspan. Would it really be that different?
What would things be like if he were incompetent? I shudder at the thought.
Really have to do the chores now.

EB -- I've been too busy to post charts of late. Perhaps the situation will change in a few days. ( Thanksgiving is how far away?! ) :- )

Wow, this is the second connect in two consecutive days at 28.8 ! There must be something wrong. :- ) )

BBML.

TO POSTER There are 32000 oz in a metric tonne.

Good mornin! Donald: yup,read your bank post ( a precarious situation to say the least ) JTF:The mini-mountain climb sounds like fun---I'm shortly heading out ta sea in the kayak even though I just read somethin about a BIG shark biting right through a kayak in Perth...

Poster: A sight that may interest you;

http://www.iswm.com/

Ted: The shark in Perth bit a surf ski in half, nearly injuring the top Perth Lawyer who was riding on it. It is unusual for sharks to attempt biting one of their own! The lawyer won, obviously!
Been in the hospital all day with my wife. Not far off having our first baby, I think. Big waiting game.

Steve: Congratulations!

The best of luck to you and your wife with the new baby!!--must be pretty exciting!....A lawyer huh---too bad the shark didn't get em~~~~~ but am glad to hear they aren't attacking kayakers ( Canadian paper did say KAYAK but ya can't believe what ya read these days ) again--hope all goes well!!

After months of extensive research into the study of gold, it's historical
and present patterns, under varying economic conditions, I have
arrived at a final conclusion.
The price, ( or value ) of gold in the coming months, is either going to
go up, down, or sideways.
Hope this helps.

Lose Money ... With Quicken?
http://zolatimes.com/V1.3/Deb.html

.

BBML dudes~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Need advice. I am planning on trading in 85 oz. of silver bars for as many 90% silver coins as possible this week to hopefully avoid possible confiscation and get more silver for my money. Isn't it also a good idea to have the coiins in case of a sharp deflation as you can always get at least face value when used. Sorry for the stupid question, but I just wanted to be sure I was doing the right thing in that case...

Steve
Congratulations mate.
On of lifes little surprises.

By the why who do you work for?
------------------------------------------------------
Four expectant fathers were in the Perth hospital waiting room, while their wives were in labor.

The nurse comes in and tells the first man, "Congratulations, You're the father of twins."

"What a coincidence" the man exclaims. "I work for the Subianco Twins baseball team."

The nurse returns a short while later and tells the second man, "You are the father of triplets."

"Wow, what a coincidence" he replies. "I work for the 3 Gold Nuggets Corporation."

When the nurse comes again, she tells the third man that his wife has given birth to quadruplets.

"Another coincidence I work for the Four Seasons Hotel."

At this point, the fourth guy faints. When he comes to, the others ask what's wrong.

"What's wrong? I work for Seven-Up."

Congragulations Steve. The greatest delight in life is children, only surpassed by grand children

Warm for this time of year on the ranch in southern Oregon, 50 degrees.

Off to church

I am not sure you would have to worry about your silver being taken. In addition I think you would actually get less silver by "trading" as you will be charged a heavy premium on a small amount of silver coins.

Mr. Mick; When I speak about a final capitulation I am referring to the gold market, NOT the equities market in general. That market is many months and several thousand Dow points away from the capitulation stage.

Glenn: This constant readjustment of targets is not unique to the current gold bear. We saw it in the stock bull -- analysts kept hiking their targets as stock prices climbed. Let's face it -- the longer a trend lasts, the easier it is for investors to assume that it will continue forever ( well, almost ) . Perhaps this is why so few get in at the bottom or out at the top of any market.

Gold could well be at the trough right now, or it may still have further to go on the downside. But the gold stocks are exceedingly cheap by any measure of valuation and sentiment is overwhelmingly negative. Plus the recent huge selloff is typical of the final stage of bear markets. And we should not forget this gold bear has now lasted 21 months. The odds favor its demise in the very near future.

Am aware of the 32000 oz in a 2000lb tonne, what I was curious about is troy oz @12 per lb. Do they use troy ounces in calculating a tonne? All gold coins etc are in troy ounces not the 16 oz per lb avdp.

Hello JTF, Tolerant1, Donald

As always, Donald, thank you for wonderful urls,- and Tolerant1 always the gentle voice of reason!

JTF: Hi!

I peered through Crooks's "Dimension of Creation" [ Has the post not yet arrived?!] :

-On ENSO, I see he has a reference to a non-graphical chart P168 :

" from IPCC report 1992"

-Page 26/28 - Chart 5.13c 'Below left'

"Comparison of the interannual LOD variation [L {t} ] with the least-squares fit of a linear combination of ENSO & QBO variations [eE[t]] + qQ[t] from 1964 to 1987. The two-month phase shift in E[t] & the one-month shift in Q[t] are included [data inverted for comparison with tidal activity]

=Reference to this Chart is :

"B.F Chao. Science 243 p 923 , 1989"

His Comment here= Tidal activity in the Bay of Fundy and factors related to El Nino are broadly correlated [ENSO & QBO & LOD]. However, the North Atlantic Oscillation Index [NAO1] is not synchronised with any of them, showing that the same external pressure source [magnetoconstriction] is at work producing tidal & atmospheric distortions, whilst temperatures in the high northern latitudes create an independent quantum pattern attributable to fluxations in the thermal insulation value of the magnetic polar vertex

Gee! - hope I didn't leave anything out?!

Hope this helps?

Regards

Poster: I am looking for that little book with the answers, I am unsure so I do not want to quote from memory.

Anybody out there know the answer?

Capital Fleeing JapanStock Plunge Prompts Flight Of Foreign Cash From Tokyo
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -When the Nikkei Stock Average dipped below 15,000 Friday, concern over an outflow of foreign funds from Japanese financial markets grew stronger. Foreign investors are bailing out of Japanese stocks at an accelerating pace. After buying a net 3.2 trillion yen worth of equities between January and July, they sold a net 800 billion yen worth in August-October. And in the first week of November, net selling by foreign investors expanded to 92.3 billion yen.

The situation is worse than those figures indicate. Japanese public funds, which typically buy domestic equities through overseas funds, apparently accounted for some 30% of that January-July buying. This means overseas investors have already sold half their net 2.2 trillion yen in buys this year.

Foreign investors are opting for assets of higher quality, says Richard Koo, an analyst at Nomura Research Institute Ltd. They are disappointed by the Japanese government's failure to come up with effective economic stimulus measures other than relying on a weaker yen.

Should the government fail to take appropriate steps, the flight of overseas investment could accelerate, warns an analyst at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Capital Markets Ltd.

Japan's 20 leading banks will lose all latent profits on their stock portfolios if the Nikkei index falls to 14,500, banking sources said.





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Colleen: How did things end up with the stock and such dilemma you had? Voice of reason? My dear lady. I am the dummy, it must be my ventriloquist, Mr. Jose Cuervo you refer to.

Floyd Norris in today's NY Times - on Tech stocks and options. Points out Microsoft's earnings adjusted for option compensation are 2.05 for the year and -.05 for the quarter. ( rather than 2.65 and .50 respectively ) . He points out that if the techs in general go through a period of poor performance: "Then, many of the options being handed out now could prove worthless, or at least of far less value than employees had expected. To keep workers, companies might have to pay higher salaries. That would cause reported expenses to increase, depressing profits even as investors were willing to pay a smaller multiple...The results? A double wammy to share prices."

Lots of coincidental things are happening around.

Firebomb Blows Out Windows at Wall St.Bank
03:21 p.m Nov 09, 1997 Eastern

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - A small bomb blew out several windows at an office building in the Wall Street district early Sunday just as a terrorist safety drill was set to get under way by authorities, New York police
said. The explosion at 222 Broadway, in the heart of New York's financial district, caused some minor property damage, a police spokeswoman said.
Traffic in the area of Broadway and Vesey Streets was diverted as the Bomb Squad, Fire Department and Emergency Service Units launched an investigation into the explosion.
There were no injuries and there have been no calls to police by any group claiming responsibility for the 6 a.m. EST blast, police said.
The building where the blast occurred houses offices of ***Swiss Bank Corp.*** and the Merrill Lynch Swiss Security Bank, police said.
Police Commissioner Howard Safir who was at a mock disaster practice drill nearby would not speculate as to the intended target of the bomb.

New York-Nov. 14-FWN--THE COMEX DIVISION OF NYMEX TODAY
reported that Swiss Bank Corp., who will cease to act as
a Licensed Depoistory for the storage of gold and silver
deliverable against COMEX's gold and silver futures
contracts on Nov. 21, 1997, has informed the exchange that
Swiss Bank has been incorrectly reporting the amount of gold
and silver eligible for delivery against the respective
contracts.

The crisis in Asia and the depths to which the Japanese market will sink in the very near future is terrifying for world markets.

Yet the United States government, and establishment ( pick a sector ) are in la la land. Totally out to lunch. Investors not prepared in the least as they have been conditioned hook line and sinker to believe the markets will continue to thrive and they will all retire millionaires.

God Bless America, Home of the Gullible, land of the bankrupt.


What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly; it is dearness only that gives everything its value.

Thomas Paine

Shek: I think this is only the opening chapter in such events. Of course at some point we will be told that we have been infested with terrorists from Pakistan, etc.

Even though up to the opening salvo we have been assured that "we" are protected by the "best" American know how and technology has to offer.

Yeah, right, NOT!

Sources say the Fed is about to raise rates again
3rd Quarter GDP projected in the 4% to 5% Range
http://zolatimes.com/V1.3/kris.html

Why we need to correct? - Or where are we heading?
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Crash.html

It is not only important to understand this question,
but also to ask it in context!

Date: Sat Nov 15 1997 20:14
Crunch ( Question for Another ) ID#344290:
Another, a question, please: When gold is borrowed from
CBs, what collateral is required by the CB to be assured
the loan will be repaid in full?

Crunch,
If you will allow, I will add to your thinking. In todays time
the CBs do not sell physical gold with a purpose to drive
the price down. They sell to cover open orders to buy what
cannot be filled from existing stocks.
Look to the US treasury sales in the late 70s. They sold
1 million a month using open bid proposals with much
fanfare. If the CBs wanted physical sales to drive the price
they would sell in the same way.
The sales today are done quietly with purpose. The gold
must go to the correct location. That is why these sales do
not impact price as they occur, there is a waiting buyer
on the other side. As all of these transactions are done
thru certain merchant banks, not direct CB contact,
the buy side does hold hedges.
When actual delivery takes place, months later ( and usually
at the same time as the CB sale statement ) these hedges
come off and affect the market price.
It is important to understand that none of these CB sales of
physical need to go to the open market at all! The BIS could
take it all. You see, for them to take all of Canadas gold would
have been as cool water on a hot day. That small amount of
currency was nothing to them.
All currencies, today, are locked to the US$ for value. In a very
real sense, no country can own its gold as the BIS has ties to
all of it. Canada, Australia and others say openly what is the use?
The BIS, instead of taking it outright, places it where its needed!

As long as there is an open market for gold, it will not be allowed
to trade above its commodity price! It has far to much value for
that to happen. You see, in much the same way that a zero coupon
bond trades at a discount to face, gold is traded for its discount
of  money value to commodity price! Think that I a fool, because
I trade gold for thousands US an oz.? You will think much on this
in the future.

Banks do lend gold with a reason to control price. If gold rises
above its commodity price it loses value in discount trade. They
admit now to lending much where they would admit nothing before!
They do this now because of the trouble ahead. Does a CB have
collateral to lend its gold? Understand, they only lend their good
name on paper, not the gold itself. The gold that is put on the market
in these deals belongs to someone else! The question is not Are the
CBs worried for the return of gold? but, Has our paper been lent
to the wrong people?.

The BIS will not allow the distribution of all gold to settle claims. The
mines of the world will be forced to sell to the BIS at the locked existing
commodity price of gold. This will happen over many, many years as
no other official market outside the BIS will exist.

You see, oil will flow but oil and gold will never flow in the same direction!

Steve: Congratulations about the baby. I also hope the shark is ok.

kk- You a 'dummy'? Hardly! Thanks for interest-occupational hazards I guess- amazing though, how I can sit at my desk and the truth just arrives in my lap from unexpected sources! Sorting it all out- but it takes time!

I was 'away' for a short while, and suddenly see MANY more faces on Kitco!- Afternoon, ALL!

Nick@A -please thank Dad for me? { :-}} Will forward them separately.

ALL: You may like to try this site in view of Iraq etc? Just rec'd in e-mail.

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anthrax, botulinum toxin and other chemical and biological agents you may
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kk- You a 'dummy'? Hardly! Thanks for interest-occupational hazards I guess- amazing though, how I can sit at my desk and the truth just arrives in my lap from unexpected sources! Sorting it all out- but it takes time!

I was 'away' for a short while, and suddenly see MANY more faces on Kitco!- Afternoon, ALL!

Nick@A -please thank Dad for me? { :-}} Will forward them separately.

ALL: You may like to try this site in view of Iraq etc? Just rec'd in e-mail.

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OUTBREAK, which started life as the Ebola Page, has a mission to bring
information on agents of serious disease, such as Ebola virus, to the
general public. It tries to make this information both scientifically
accurate and easily understandable.

Given the developing situation in the Middle East, we feel now may be a
good time to add some information on a number of other agents to the site.
These are agents which have been used, or may be used, in chemical and
biological warfare attacks, or in terrorist attacks. You will remember the
episode in 1995 when a Japanese cult released sarin gas in the Tokyo
subway. On the new pages you will find information on sarin, VX gas,
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have been hearing about. They give short summary details on the agent,
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ALL: Whoops! SO sorry!!

Email chatter from the web:
-------------------------------------------------------
Thursday's 86pt rally was as bearish as they come. For that percentage
gain in the DJIA, it was the 7th worst breadth ratio in 60 years. And for
that percentage gain in the Nasdaq, it was the 2nd worst breadth ratio in
the Nasdaq's 25-year history ( the worst was earlier this year ) .

We think the Asian crisis is far from over - particularly in Hong Kong
and in Japan ( where the Nikkei hit new 2-year lows last night ) .

Bottomline, the technical picture continues to worsen this week, in spite of the
closing rally. And perhaps the most bearish fundamental argument is the
minimal impact from all the media-induced "buying-on-the-dip" by the public.
Ask yourself this key question... if the market is having a problem in spite
of all the bottom-fishing, and in spite of no Fed rate hike this week, then what
happens if/when the DJIA takes out the recent lows?

It's looking more and more like a Deflationary bear -
something we haven't seen in the U.S. in 60 years. That would mean 3 things:

1. The declines will be sudden and severe, followed by very tempting ( and
deceiving ) rallies such as we've just seen.

2. The only true safe haven may be in cash, short positions, and perhaps
bonds. In a Deflationary bear, the REITS, resource & gold stocks may not
provide downside protection.

3. Expect the unexpected. Liquidity crises are common in bear markets... and
multiplied in deflation.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
I am not a huge fan of CNBC, but this ticker talk on Thursday was a
great segment and Ron Insana did a great job stressing these
points in a rather sobering and ominous tone.........
"In today's ticker talk.... I've had some interesting
conversations with professional investors who've been attempting to
explain the liquidity trap that seems to be developing worldwide.
Heavily leveraged players from hedge fund speculators to Korean
commercial banks to Asian Central banks in general.. getting hit with
margin calls after a wide range of speculative trading financed with
borrowed money. Remember the S&L crisis of the 1980's in the US where
presumably safe savings and loans used fully insured depositor money to
speculate in chancy real estate projects or buy junk bonds or even
purchase fine art. Its kind of what's been going on worldwide in the
last five years in remote corners of the globe. Like Thailand,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, and Brazil. Imagine Orange County writ
large, where bureaucrats speculate in derivatives in third world
countries. Korean bankers buying Brazilian stocks or bonds on margin
and then blowing up in this growing currency debacle. Remember also the
consequences of the S&L crisis or the Orange County derivatives debacle.
In the former case the S&L bailout cost better than half a trillion
dollars... in Orange County the largest municipal bankruptcy in US
history. Now some day soon people will ask 'why didn't anyone tell us
this was going on?'.... well quite simply few people knew.. and even
fewer people cared, while the global liquidity machine was pumping up
markets the world over. Asian commercial and central bankers don't
disclose their risky practices. Korean bankers didn't tell anyone what
they were buying or that they were buying Brazil ON MARGIN. Now
hopefully the worst has already past, but maybe it isn't. Why would
Alan Greenspan and Deputy Treasury Secretary Summers already be telling
congress the US may need to provide financial assistance to Asia before
anyone feels the pain of the situation. Maybe they have a better idea
of what's coming....... and that's ticker talk for a Thursday"
Ron Insana -CNBC
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question for this good group, I have wondered for some time what various countries around the new "free market" world which has emerged, meant by "free markets". Obviously in the case of Japan, its meaning isn't the same as "capitalism", because their economy seems to be some strange mixture of government manipulation - privileged class prerogatives - worker protection, which I can not fathom. My question is: Does anyone have a clear idea of the extent to which capitalism exists in the various economies, economy by economy, around the world?

Amidst the currency chaos, mounting debt debris and stock market turmoil ravaging all-Asia, a voice emerges which goes to the core of the problems.
John Kutyns observations and insights ring with Churchillian logic and clarity. In painful detail he paints the problems plaguing Asia... and with oracle
eyes he foresees the havoc to be wrought before economic stability may be restored. His poignant observations regarding Japans forced action in US
Treasuries and Gold will soon prove to be prophetic:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn111597.html

Nick,
the post below was just on time to remind all!Yes,passed through many stories/commentarys this two days in mandarin medias from taiwan/sigapore/hongkong,mostly very concerned about the NEGATIVE developing in KOREA AND JAPAN!Korea seems worst than the HASHIMOTO...!The business over here just absolutely CRASH!!Few friends of mine closed down,joint venture,or dismissed!...Off ...for holidays/market survey in to NEPAL!.....GOLD SEEMS DEAD TOO!!!try to liquid for cash.....
Thinking,...wondering........tomorrow......zzzzzzzz

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/brazil_s_garantia_ba_1.html

Date: Sun Nov 16 1997 10:28
Nick ( @Aussie ) ID#386276:
Email chatter from the web:
Well, Nick what do you think? Deflation market with dropping gold stocks?
ANOTHER lays out very strong points. The BIS is based in Swizerland ( I believe ) . Maybe that would have a very positive influence on the Swiss Franc? Can you buy stock in the BIS ??? ( maybe a silly question )

http://www.bis.org/home.htm

It does bother me somewhat that the mines could be forced over years to sell to the BIS. Yes, I believe it could happen. What bothers me most is if they can be corced to sell ... so could we. Maybe we have to go back to holding our gold overseas in a histroical safe haven ... like Switzerland. comments.

Steves specially edited: BREAKING NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

Australia set to support $136bn Asia crisis fund
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971117/national/national14.html

Price slump forces Mt Todd Gold Mine to close
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971117/business/business6.html

Gutnick extends US bond mission for Aussie Gold mines
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971117/business/business5.html

No sign of bulls and bears agreeing
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971117/market/markets2.html

Death rumour sparks bank crisis in Indonesia
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971117/world/world3.html

Aussie Gold Miner leads the way in Indonesia
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971117/invest/invest6.html

Iraqs Deadly Little Secret
http://204.202.137.112/sections/world/iraq1114_vx/index.html

The CIA's Secret War Against Saddam ( Large Info Site! )
http://204.202.137.112/sections/world/cia/cia.html

Asia on the brink takes a step back
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/world/world3.html

Why Japan cant find its way
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/feature/feature1.html

Japanese Banks - the doomsday scenario
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/feature/feature2.html

Dark Clouds of over-valuation roll in from the US
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/market/markets2.html

Bet your suit, the business cycle is a fact of life
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/market/markets3.html

Rothschilds Money Market Mans outlook for fixed interest
( even he got burned on Gold shares - see article )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971115/smart/smart6.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/971114/ny_fitch_sumitomo_1.html

A.Goose: Yes, you can buy shares in the BIS. It was trading in the $18,000 range or something like that. Sort of like Berkshire Hathaway. It is in Basle, Switzerland. Don't know where it is traded. I will look.

Alright better gold minds than I what about this?

1. The folks a treasury and the CB's ain't stupid,
they track everything. Their forecasts must have
predicted the problems in S.E. Asia.

2. At ALL costs Japan not sell U.S. treasuries
or the house of cards comes down.

3. So you drive the price of gold down to keep the
Japanese from jumping to it.

Well that's my theory anyway.

And here's something on a NEW Virus I picked up on another BB you should all know about
WARNING!!!!!!

If you receive an e-mail titled "JOIN THE CREW" DO NOT open it!

It will erase EVERYTHING on your hard drive! Send this letter out to as
many people you can ... this is a new virus and not many people know about it!
This information was received this morning from IBM, please share it with
anyone that might access the Internet.

Also, if anyone receives mail entitled "PENPAL GREETINGS!" please delete
it WITH OUT reading it!! This is a warning for all Internet users -- there is a dangerous virus propagating across the Internet through an
e-mail message entitled "PENPAL GREETINGS!". DO NOT DOWNLOAD ANY MESSAGE ENTITLED "PENPAL GREETINGS"!! This message appears to be a friendly letter asking
you if you are interested in a penpal, but by the time you read this letter,
it is too late. The trojan horse virus will have already infected the boot
sector of your hard drive, destroying all of the data present. It is a
self-replicating virus, and once the message is read, it will
AUTOMATICALLY forward itself to
anyone who's e-mail address is present in YOUR mailbox! This virus will
DESTROY your hard drive and holds the potential to DESTROY the hard drive
of anyone whose mail is in your in-box and who's mail is in their in-box and
so on. If this virus keeps getting passed, it has the potential to do a
great
deal of DAMAGE to computer networks worldwide!!!

Please, delete the message entitled "PENPAL GREETINGS!" as soon as you see
it! And pass this message along to all of your friends, relatives and
the other readers of the newsgroups and mailing lists which you are on so
that they are not hurt by this dangerous virus! Please pass this along to
everyone you know so this can be stopped.

PASS THIS ON TO YOUR FRIENDS. WARNING!!! This is a new virus going around
in
the last couple of days! DO NOT open or even look at any mail
that you get that says: "Returned or Unable to Deliver" This virus will
attach itself to your computer components and render them useless.
Immediately delete any mail items that says this. AOL has said this is a
very
dangerous virus, and there is NO remedy for it at this time.

Please Be Careful, And forward to all your on-line friends A.S.A.P.
Forward this A.S.A.P. to every single person you know!!!!!!!!!



RCIC - http://www.rcic.com
Regulatory Compliance Information Center




Ray

FWIW column. The XAU has taken quite a beating! In the data that I have, going back to 1990, I can find only a few periods when we saw a six week, back to back decline in the XAU. Those were in 1990, 92, and 1996. The declines ran around 20 - 25% on the index. The current decline is around 30%, depending on how you want to measure it. What have seen of late, can truly be called oversold. But like any other oversold condition, there's nothing to say that we can't get 'more' oversold at this point. Sentiment is very bearish. The funny thing is this, I can't find a period going back to 1990 where we had SEVEN back to back weeks of downward action in the XAU. There was always at least one 'dead cat bounce' in there somewhere.

This would seem to imply a bounce at least. If there is no bounce this week in the XAU, then I think we will be setting some kind of record here. If a bounce in the index materializes, it should happen very fast from these low levels. There is no support, resistance, or anything here. This is manic panic that we are seeing. It might be worth a SMALL SPECULATIVE play for the upside here. At any rate, a long play here is definitely fighting the trend. Remember that markets never go straight down or up. If this market goes straight down, that'll be something we haven't seen in a long time.

Donald@21:56, Aurator@20:23, Please see address last sentence...

You have been working hard!
I attend to the fact that the IMFs holdings are expressed in SDR; a small subtlety I find telling.

Could you/can you come up with some possible targets? That is, if the DM, for example is to be halved ( as per Road to ECU, FT last week ) , can we conjecture that will be its nominal SDR value?

My question to you both is: how much of a cut can we reasonably predict for the dollar? It certainly wont be the present .58xxxxx IMHO.

At the present rating ( aforementioned .58xxxxx ) if the offshore dollars came home, bread would be $10,000 a loaf.

What would be a Reasonable Expectation?

Again, many thanks for the input!
Aurator, Im still awaiting your Overview. I posted the e-mail, but here it is again:
d2@ix.netcom.com.

TO ALL: Thanks very much for your kind thoughts re our baby to be. It is kicking really hard inside at the moment. May come any time now. Is the first grandchild on both sides of our family. My father is getting quite clucky actually. Am trying to work out if we are having a Y2K Depression Baby or a Third World War Baby? I missed Church today as was in with wife all day. To pass the time I took my lap top with me & started editing the juicy bits out of the Australian Senate Select Committee hearings the other day on the Superannuation Surcharge Bill. It is diabolical! You think you have problems with the 401k's in the USA! To quote one Superannuation Lawyer from Sydney "This is the worst legislation that I have even seen in the past 20 years". You have seen nothing like what these morons in our Govt are doing to the retirement savings of our people here is Australia. Fortunately due to the recent Nursing Home Bond stuff up in Australia, the electorate is starting to work out that the current Fed Govt is totally incompetent. But the alternative is even worse!
To answer who I work for, myself.
See http://www.myadviser.com.au/blizard/

Caveate -- I forgot, Pegasus Gold is in the XAU. I guess we will see seven back-to-back down weeks in the XAU...

Colleen: Got your 9:58. If you mean by post -- surface mail -- no. Living up to its other name isn't it? Snail mail?
I understand some of what Crook has done with LOD, ENSO and QBO -- this is linear regression where you assume the relationship of multiple variables, and then by trial and error look for a correlation. Very time consuming, and often unrewarding. The fact that he is including temporal shifts as well means that he spent a great deal of time trying to make something out of the data. I have done that myself when I was unwilling to give up on some experimental analysis. I am not saying he is wrong -- I'm just saying that this much analysis is suspicious. The best result is a simple one.
I know what ENSO is. LOD, QBO, and NAOI I don't have a clue.
I am a plasma physicist by trade ( though not active in research anymore ) , so I know exactly what magnetoconstriction is, and I have never heard of this effect on the non-conducting atmosphere. He may have a point if he is talking about the earths magnetic field affecting the oceans, or the ionosphere. The ionospheric patterns probably do affect the weather, and solar flare effects during active periods of sunspot cycles could very well be important. However, with regard to the oceans I think the earths magnetic field would have little effect. The effect would more likely be the other way around if it is at all significant. Perhaps he means atmospheric tides, and not ocean tides in this context.
I can get the BF Chao Science reference at the library at work. By the way - does he say anything about the mechanism behind ( underline behind ) the El Nino. If it is tidal that is one thing -- but if is volcanic related that is quite another. I have heard rumors of both mechanisms, but do not know the truth.

Take care.

Another's assertion that mines will be forced to sell at "the commodity price". What establishes the commodity price and what does this term mean? It is an abstract way of attributing gold price action to demand by fabricators. That is, it is a presumed price absent investment demand. There can be no pure "commodity" price unless each country makes it illegal to buy gold for anything other than fabrication. And even if this were to happen, gold jewelry would go out of sight.

To All: The following was taken from the bis home page, which really has some very interesting reading. I suggest that anyone interested in pm's needs to become familiar with the information at this site:

http://bis.org.


"The gold franc of the BIS has a gold weight of just over 0.29 of a gramme of fine gold, which is identical with the gold parity of the Swiss franc from the foundation of the BIS in 1930 until September 1936 when, after a number of leading countries had left the gold standard, the gold parity of the Swiss franc was suspended. The BIS employs the gold franc solely as a unit of account for balance-sheet purposes, assets and liabilities in US dollars being converted into gold francs at the fixed rate of US$ 208 per ounce of fine gold ( equivalent to 1 gold franc = US$ 1.94 ) and all other items in currencies being converted into gold francs on the basis of market rates against the US dollar."

Can anyone figure out what the "...US$ 208 per ounce..." means relative to the market value of gold traded on the COMEX?

Carl: In 1933 Roosevelt and his friend, Harold Ickes, Sec. of the Interior, let the free market set the new price. After calling in all the gold they watched the market settle. When they thought it had calmed down they selected the $35 price. That price turned out to be too high, gold flooded in from everywhere to get in on the U.S. Govt. guaranteed price.

Have a look at this site? The virus is apparently an urban legend...I remember receiving this in my mail last year as well.

http://palimpsest.stanford.edu/byform/mailing-lists/exlibris/1997/02/msg00175.html

Thanks Donald, I would assume that it trades on the Swiss exchange and maybe on the london exchange. $18,000 a share ... oh well I wonder how many shares are outstanding.

Steve-Perth- Congratulations to you and your wife!! A wonderful time for you all...

Tyler Rose: Thank you for URL
http://bis.org/

but cannot get in- Please will you repost? Thank you.

Donald, Exactly. So isn't it still going to be a matter of "setting" the price according to the supply and demand, where demand is a function of anyone's demand, fabricator or investor?

BIS

http://www.bis.org/home.htm

STEVE - PERTH: Keep those baby updates coming! You probably have one of the world's largest cheering sections with everyone here at Kitco! Actually, I thought I'd be the first among the regulars here to announce the birth of a golden Kitco baby ( Grandkids count, but not quite as much ) but you beat me to it by roughly 2 months. Oh well... Massive congratulations to you and the wife! We await further developments with baited breath.

Hi JTF-

I've found QBO= Quasi-Bienniel Oscillation [Not that I'd know what that means!!] {;-}}

LOD- I have not yet found, but if you received Page 12/28?=

Correlation of Stocks & Tidal Forces which has a chart of Selling Panics;/Buying Panics & Tidal Activity , you'll see a reference at the end of the comment to a [P R BELL -it's a little blurred! BOll?]

This 'Ionisation Constant'/ Quantum Rhythm seems to be the important factor, but you'll see when you can read all for yourself. Sorry I don't seem to be of much help! Robert Zoller said after Crooks's lecture that he was really impressed, and that it WAS so simple!

I'll be so glad when your books arrive..they were posted on about the 27th October? Perhaps if Nick has been able to receive Page 12, he could send it to you? Take care.

A GOOSE: Hello!- And thank you for the bis URL.

ALL: Guess I'll repost my query in the daytime: What is our recourse if COMEX folds? Is NYMEX responsible? Is Nymex any stronger? Or, will we be left holding the bag ( full of promises to pay/paper gold options ) ? The deletion of deliverable gold is ringing an alarming bell! WW you're a lawyer, what say you? Cherokee...options...opinion? Anyone?

November 16, 1997
Li says no plan to adjust China exchange rate now

TOKYO ( Reuters ) - Prime Minister Li Peng said China has no plan for now to adjust the exchange rate between the renminbi and the U.S. dollar, Japanese newspapers reported Sunday.

Li told Japan's four major newspapers that China's financial climate remained stable and Hong Kong's financial situation was "all right" following the recent regional economic turmoil. Li, who was wrapping up a six-day visit to Japan, gave the interview Saturday. No direct quotes were used in the newspaper reports. But China's official Xinhua news agency also reported on the interview. "Li... made the remark when asked to comment on the financial crisis in some regions in the world and its influence on China, particularly Hong Kong," Xinhua said.

"Li said China's current financial situation remains stable," Xinhua said. "The exchange rate is US$1 to 8.3 yuan. Therefore, 'we have no plan to make a readjustment,' Xinhua quoted him as saying. "The ( financial ) situation in Hong Kong, he said, is all right and the exchange rate between the HK dollar and the U.S. dollar remains stable, although Hong Kong was struck by the crisis that began in Southeast Asia," the news agency said.

China's currency has been about the only one in Asia to resist erosion against the U.S. dollar in recent months. It hit a 29-month high against the greenback this week, buoyed largely by a growing trade surplus with the United States.

China pursues the "one country, two systems" policy over Hong Kong after it was handed back by Britain on July 1. The government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is in charge of economic operations in Hong Kong, Xinhua quoted Li as saying.

Li said the central government supports Hong Kong's system of linking its currency to the U.S. dollar. Commenting on the idea of an Asian economic emergency fund, Li said China was not opposed to talks by experts first,
Xinhua said. Deputy finance ministers of Asian nations including Japan, the United States and officials from the International Monetary
Fund ( IMF ) were due to meet in Manila Tuesday to discuss the Asian Fund proposal. The idea was raised by Japan to help regional countries cope with future financial instability.

Congrats from the USA. Enjoy every minute! They grow up way to fast.

Carl: If history is correct about the Roosevelt-Ickes price setting attempt you have to give them credit for faith in their free market attempt to set a proper price. You can argue if the price should have been set at all. Forget dollars, dinars, baht and pesetas and let's have ounces.
Exchangeability is the key. If the BIS is going to establish a world currency without that feature it will fail. That is not to say it could not succeed for many years, it well might, but eventually it would fail. We are now in a period of full exchangeability. Most?, many?, all? citizens of the world have the ability to dump their local currency and buy gold. The reason they do not do so is because the things they need are still priced in local currency terms. If they own gold they are forced to make a conversion, possibly pay capital gains taxes or sales taxes on non-gains and non-sales. All they did was stay even. The rules are stacked against them. If governments insist on getting in the way the market will extract a higher price. Governments will fail and chaos will result. Ask any Russian.

Excerpt from ANOTHER's post today:

Banks do lend gold with a reason to control price. If gold rises
above its commodity price it loses value in discount trade. They
admit now to lending much where they would admit nothing before!
They do this now because of the trouble ahead. Does a CB have
collateral to lend its gold? Understand, they only lend their good
name on paper, not the gold itself. The gold that is put on the market
in these deals belongs to someone else! The question is not Are the
CBs worried for the return of gold? but, Has our paper been lent
to the wrong people?.

The BIS will not allow the distribution of all gold to settle claims. The
mines of the world will be forced to sell to the BIS at the locked existing
commodity price of gold. This will happen over many, many years as
no other official market outside the BIS will exist.

You see, oil will flow but oil and gold will never flow in the same direction!


Being a goose, I know that I am more dense than most, but what does ANOTHER mean by " The question is not Are the
CBs worried for the return of gold? but, Has our paper been lent
to the wrong people?. " ???? Ouch my head aches.

Steve- Perth: Congratulations on your new arrival.
You have outdone us with your posts today. Not only do you graphically show us how our US government has sold the Iraqi opposition down the river with no consistent foreign policy, you have shown ( I think ) discovered Saddam's motives. He is behaving like a cornered animal.
The reason is that all he has got left is his missles and what he can deliver in them -- his military might is a shadow of what it once was, and I would guess that his control over his own internal security forces is tenuous. So-- all he has left is to be ( in his eyes ) a "martyr" to the Arab cause.
I wonder how many people he could kill with 3.5 tons of VX nerve gas. I'm sure he will not hesitate to use it, even if arabs are killed downwind -- if he hits his target with some of the gas. This matter is very serious indeed, and I wonder if his arab "allies" are aware that the mass deaths would not be limited to the Israelis. In fact, the Israeli's probably have more gas masks. I wonder -- does this gas get absorbed through the skin as well?
Sorry about that -- hope I have not spoiled anyones weekend holiday. By the way, this kind of weapon of mass destruction would be much easier to transport to the US than a nuclear device. No missle necessary.

China bankers to meet amid Asian financial chill

BEIJING, Nov 16 ( Reuters ) - As an economic chill settles over much of Asia, China is to open a major financial conference aimed at reviving its ailing banking system and stoking the fires of a slowing economy. Top government leaders are scheduled to meet in Beijing on Monday for a three-day conclave that will review the crisis that has hit Asian stocks and currencies, officials said.They will possibly hammer out measures to reform the country's troubled banks.

"One of the main topics will focus on preventing financial risks, and what lessons China should learn from the financial crisis in Southeast Asia," said an official with the State Council Development Centre.The meeting is organised by the State Council, or cabinet, and will include officials from key government departments and the nation's security watchdog as well as state bankers.

It is expected to highlight problems with China's banking system, which is saddled by mountains of bad debt, the result of lending policies guided more by political pull than commercial common sense.

"The banking system is their most serious problem right now," said John Seel, sovereign analyst at Bear Stearns Asia in Hong Kong. State banks have long been ordered to support inefficient state enterprises, and are now straining under debts that money-losing state firms will never repay.

The central bank has estimated non-performing loans in China's banking system at 13 to 14 percent of loans outstanding, with two to three percent deemed as non-recoverable. U.S. economic forecast firm DRI/McGraw Hill has said that 20 to 40 percent of the estimated $600 billion in outstanding loans extended by Chinese banks were non-performing.

"There's some talking about how they are going to control financial risk just in case things blow up," said Qu Hongbin, an economist with Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in Hong Kong.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/CHINA-ECONOMY.html

To All:

Ray's 10:56 AM posting re viruses is a hoax. Please see Symantec's Anti-Virus Research Center's posting at:

http://www.symantec.com/avcenter/hoax.html

Ray: I hope your posting was out of ignorance and not intended to be malicious.

For ma frens at Keetco

Ah weesh to awarrd zee medal of zee pyranees avec zee Keetco cross to
Monsieur Neil for zee ideas he express so vairy well in hees famoose
13:34. Eet was so good zat zee WOP ( wizard of zee pyranees ) want heem
to be an honorary menbair.

For zee work of monsieur LBG, he ees to be awarded a papair bad full
of old Kangaroo guts specially provided by ma frens down undair.

All:
Whether or not gold will ever become the universal hedge that it once represented, it surely has been abandoned by some powerful institutions. Consider, for instance, what Thomas J. Reese has to say about the Vatican's investment policies in this century in his recent book entitled, "Inside the Vatican." While the Vatican "appears to have done fairly well by speculating in currency and gold during the depression and the Second World War," Reese goes on to describe its abandoning gold investing:
:Until recently, the Holy See's investment strategy ( as opposed to its cash management ) has been extremely conservative. . .until the early 1990's the Vatican held onto gold it had bought as early as the 1930's, partly in the belief that all states must hold gold and partly as ahedge against currency fluctuation when bost of the Vatican's money and investments were in lire. The gold was held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The Pdroblem with gold is that it produces no income. In the early 1990's at the urging of Cardinal Szoka and others, the Vatican began selling its gold and buying other investments. In January 1992, it held 235,765 ounces of gold valued at $83 million. By the end of 1993 it was down to 47,772 ounces."

Commenting on the sale of gold, one Monsignor Devine commented on the decision to sell gold slowly: "I wouldn't have done it that way. I would have just dumped it and gotten the money working."

This notion that selling gold to get "the money working" seems to represent the thinking of CB's and other gold holders these days.

Just as I was thnking about arranged sales ..
Sorry I'm so dense about this. You are saying that the CB's are trying to fill the gap between demand and supply shortfall ( I assume for the "other" customers who do not want to appear on the 'radar' screens of the market ) . The CB's issue 'backing' in paper to someone who in turn sells their gold ( off the market ) to those who are interested in remaining descrete.

It would seem that those interests are loath to 'upset' the public markets. Since gold production is relatively low in relationship to this level of demand ( oil derived moneies ) there would need to be some arrangement or agreement. Possibly this would include a premium payment which would be used by the seller to saticfy the interest of the 'loan' as well as make a tidy profit.

This can go on as long as there is physical gold to be transfered to the interests. If gold, for some reason begins a speculative upsurge than suppy would turn away from these descrete buyers and they would be forced to compete in the open market. This situation, of course, must be forestalled as long as possible in order to assure 'stability' toward the goal of gaining as much Au as possible in relation to dwindling reserves.

You have indicated that the current stability which supports this agreement may be coming to an end. Any signs which might point to imminent transition to a competitive situation?

ANOTHER: Appreciate your 10:20 post today. I think I am finally beginning to understand why there are two prices for gold in the world's markets. There is the current "official commodity price" as you call it, based on US dollars. Yes -- it does make sense that there could be a second, unoffical, higher "black market" price for gold by those who have goods that can command this price. For example, certain sellers of very precious goods could argue that they will not sell at the "official" price because the US dollar is overvalued.
However, there is one part of this I do not understand with regard to oil - where I need your help. This precious commodity cannot be oil, because many nations now produce oil, not just a few. There is no longer tight control of supply - unless all the oil producers of the world got together to control the price. This is not happening. On the other hand, a war in the Middle east would raise the "official" price, even if 75% of the worlds oil came from elsewhere, but then one would not need an "unofficial" price anyway. Please tell me what I do not understand.

Voyeur Professor: I guess Will Rogers was not a Catholic. The Vatican should be worried about the return OF its money, not the return ON it.

The current gold bear market has lasted 18 YEARS

Jan 1980 $875 top tick Novemeber 1997 $300

ANOTHER: If gold is being used as a currency between large banks, and the amount of available gold is drying up, then this "over the counter" trade is at risk. This could indeed lead to an "unofficial" price of gold, way above the "official" commodity price in dollars.
But -- this would not necessarily affect the oil markets alone -- it would effect all financial trades done with gold as the currency -- the 1000 tonnes of gold traded every day at the LBMA. Ie, a "corner" on the unofficial LBMA gold market?
Can you tell us who is using this avenue for financial exchange -- is it mostly the Central banks? If so, a corner on the LBMA would be tantamount to a total collapse of the world's largest banks -- unless someone is willing to really sell gold. I find this thought especially frightening, because I still don't have a clue who is trading on LBMA. Apparently the 1 trillion US dollars a tradeddaily on the open market is not enough. Is there a backup for the LBMA? Istanbul? Is only gold being traded, or is there something else that can be substituted for gold?

A.Goose: I thought Another made it crystal clear. The have nots have gold and care not about debts.

Name the monster ecoonomic power whose people think gold is dead. The US. The dollar is King, the King is dead.

We have paper and they have gold, great piece of bargaining eh.

Donald and JTF Donald, My original point was that a two tier market can not make sense without government coercion and even then it can not work for long. Another's assertion that such a market exists and has existed for some length of time with regard to oil and gold flies in the face of human nature. Such a differential in pricing would have long since, for example, solved the problem of the drug trade. Every organized crime group in the world would find such differential prices irresistible. Talk about mark up!!! Cocaine doesn't compete. I've ask myself many times what Another is doing here. His consistent message seems to be "own gold but not gold stocks".
JTF, Your most recent question of him/her is at one of the points where his scenario logically collapses.

The secular gold bear has indeed lasted 18 years. But this latest and most savage cyclical gold bear began in February 1996. Even if the secular gold bear is not yet over, this cyclical gold bear almost certainly is.

Even under this most pessimistic assumption we should in time retrace half the loss since the last peak of about $405. But if a new secular gold bull is about to begin, bullion could easily hit $500 during the next cyclical upswing.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/japan_banks_1.html

This is the first phase, the denial phase, of a BEAR market.
http://www.firstcap.com/smt/sm.html

All: I pose my questions to ANOTHER to the rest of you as well. We know that the LBMA has been in business for hundreds of years, and the gold is traded here. Recently gold trades have skyrocketed to 1000 tons a day, or so. We also know that gold supplies from the Central banks are drying up, because many are not willing to actually sell, just loan. It is very clear what the overall process is - the gold loaners are being asked to pay up - and their credit is being questioned. If the gold loaners refuse to pay up, some else will have to step in, or the system falls apart, and we have a financial crisis of some kind. I would guess that the countries who fail to pay up would end up having their currencies devalued -- if they do not sell gold.
Please -- can the guru's out there tell me where I am wrong about this? This matter could be much worse than the Japan, SE Asia, South American situation combined, if whatever this trade is cannot be handled on the official markets.

"Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear, not absence of fear." - Mark Twain

"The greatest of faults is to be conscious of none." - Thomas Carlyle

"Even if you are on the right track, you can get run over if you just sit there." - Will Rodgers

"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." - T.S. Eliot

"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world, the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man." - George Bernard Shaw

"Make everything as simple as possible, but no simpler." - Albert Einstein

"A human being is a part of the whole, called by us 'Universe,' a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings as something separated from the rest -- a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest to us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening out circle of compassion to embrace all loving creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty." - Albert Einstein

"I am enough of an artist to draw freely upon my imagination. Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." - Albert Einstein

"Science is the century-old endeavor to bring together by means of systematic thought the perceptible phenomena of this world into as thoroughgoing association as possible. To put it boldly, it is the attempt at a posterior reconstruction of existence by the process of conceptualization. Science can only ascertain what is, but not what should be, and outside of its domain value judgments of all kinds should remain necessary." - Albert Einstein

"Problems cannot be solved at the same level of awareness that created them." - Albert Einstein

"Few are those who see with their own eyes and feel with their own hearts." - Albert Einstein

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. and I'm not sure about the former," - Albert Einstein

"The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious; It is the source of all true art and science." - Albert Einstein

"I'm not trying to counsel any of you to do anything really special except to dare to think and to dare to go with the truth and to dare to really love completely." - R. Buckminster Fuller
http://www.owlnet.rice.edu/~coreyel/quotes.html

Clouded-over....Paddled back through snow squalls---beautiful and feels good on the face too...go gold~~~~~~~~~~

Carl: Thank you for your thoughtful post. I have always found it difficult to understand how gold could be traded at two prices, onless someone had a total monopoly on a commodity. Your drug trade analogy is a good one. I do not see how the LBMA trading is essential to the world's economic health. The dollar volume is much higher in other markets. What may happen I suspect is that the gold price will begin to rise -- on all markets -- when the shortage of gold becomes evident to all. This may take time to happen. I think that this part of ANOTHER's story makes sense -- it is not oil that we are talking about -- we are talking about gold. We all need to remind ourselve that ANOTHER thinks in terms of decades or more -- so what he/she sees coming may not happen for years, but we all know it will happen anyway. This I think is why ANOTHER's posts always seen to coincide with a gold downturn. He/she is not doing this intentionally, and there is value in what he/she is saying, but it is years in front fo the present, and we must keep reminding ourselves of this.

Hi Miz: Glad you are back. Thanks for the bank news. Have the Japanese banking problems been discussed in Japanese language newspapers, radio or television? Does the general public understand what is happening?

JTF
Info on Kondratieff wave:

Is 1929 being replayed this year?
http://www.nwlink.com/~magicelf/stock1~1.htm
From the bottom of the article:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In my study of long wave economic theory ( Kondratieff, et al ) , I have noted that markets tend to crash at about the same time that historical relationships between investment options change.
Specifically, in the third quarter of a Kondratieff long wave, stock prices and bond yields have an inverse relationship.
Yields going down is "good for stocks" which go up. To wit, the present raging Bull market.
Around the time of a crash ( or panic ) , about the end of the long wave's third quarter or early in its fourth, this historical inverse relationship reverses. I would argue that the '87 "crash" was not the oft predicted "big one" because the inverse relationship of yield/stock prices did not reverse. To this moment, declining yields have been wonderful news for Wall Street.
Interestingly, in major previous crashes, and perhaps the one we may presently witnessing in Japan, and closely related SE Asian markets, yields are going down and so are stocks. I noted that after the No. 10 bond e-mail, the Nikkei 225 stock index continued to trade down, losing 2% overnight. The reversal is very clear in the '25-33 period: Declining bond rates helped fuel the Roaring '20's. Rates drifted down, and
stocks roared skyward. But then the relationship reversed: yields continued to fall and the market headed the same direction as yields - down.
In the U.S., at least for the moment, the earlier relationship ( bonds down, stocks up ) appears intact. Declines in the bond yield lead almost instantly to increased stock prices.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6pak: Thanks for your post of quotes. Einstein is my favorite as you probably know. My imagination is sometimes too fertile, and needs solid ground to stand on.

Steve Congrats too from across the ditch
SDRer Data incoming
TED my e-mail bounced off a whale?

Monday, bloody Monday

To: Another, I would ask the boon of an answer.

I know that I dont know
Enough to challenge one small particle of your
Foretellings; so I would seek a different knowing.

I would know, Are you Another from Terence,
All had rather it were well for themselves than for another.

Or, Another to us from DeRerum Natura
Pleasant it is, when winds disturb the surface of a vast sea, to watch from land anothers mighty struggle.

Or, from Horace, to be our bard,
Brave men were living before Agamemmon; but all were overwhelmed in unending night, unwept, unknown
because they lacked a sacred bard.

To direct us toward von Kotzebues there is another and better world.

I would know too, when Power devolves to its lowest common denominator, brute force, whose troops shall guard BIS?

Amidst the currency chaos, mounting debt debris and stock market turmoil ravaging all-Asia, a voice emerges which goes to the core of the problems.
John Kutyns observations and insights ring with Churchillian logic and clarity. In painful detail he paints the problems plaguing Asia... and with oracle
eyes he foresees the havoc to be wrought before economic stability may be restored. His poignant observations regarding Japans forced action in US
Treasuries and Gold will soon prove to be prophetic:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn111597.html

I do not think Another is speaking in terms of years at all. No, not at all, I think he is talking days, weeks a month or two. But not years.

Personally I am not waiting for the low and have not been for a while. The lower the prices on the metals go, the more I load up on the lower cost prices to be had.

I have zero desire to be clever, this is not a race to smart. This is a race to safe. There is no first or second place. There is safe, and there is the opposite.

The following is taken from the March 31, 1997 Annual Report of the Bank for International Settlements:

"Notes to the Balance Sheet for the financial year ended 31st March 1997
1. Gold holdings
The following table shows the composition of the Bank's total gold holdings:

Assets 1996 1997


Gold bars held at central banks 4 364 194 019 3 547 261 289 Gold time deposits:
Not exceeding 3 months 236 533 897 450 480 089
Over 3 months 400 768 569 506 182 355
5 001 496 485 4 503 923 733

The Bank's own gold holdings at 31st March 1997 amounted to GF 661 900 753, equivalent to 192 tonnes of fine gold ( 1996: GF 661 882 392; 192 tonnes ) ."

Note that the "Gold Bars Held at Central Banks" dropped from 4.3 billion GF to 3.5 billion GF, where GF is the BIS gold franc. The GF is equivalent to US$208, from an earlier post. If anyone ever had a doubt as to whether the central banks are selling gold, this should answer that doubt.

In previewing the note, the columns don't line up, for which I apologize. The annual report can be downloaded from the bis home page in PDF format. It is about 178K.

http://www.phillynews.com:80/inquirer/97/Nov/15/business/GOLD15.htm

Neil @ J'burg: Deflation is the inevitable consequence of inflation -- always and everywhere. Even in Weimar's Germany, the hyper-inflation of the 1920's ended with a massive deflationary collapse of the monetary system and the country. Eventually, the German currency collapsed to nothing. Zilch. It was completely worthless, which is the ultimate deflationary collapse.

Our monetary system, however, is different the Germany's in the 1920s. Theirs was currency-based. Ours is credit-based. What brings on deflation in a credit-based economy is the inability of creditors to repay their debts. When creditors max-out on their ability to repay debt, they must either pay back the loans, or default. Unfortunately, credit-based sytems almost always arrive at the point where they expand until it's too late. Defaults and bankruptcies are the tell-tale signs that at credit-based system has reached its limit.

In the US in 1997, bankruptcies are skyrocketing. This is after 6 years of economic expansion and super-easy credit on the part of the Federal Reserve. As a nation, we have borrowed our way into prosperity -- a false prosperity that will lead to an inevitable deflationary collapse.

Credit growth in our country ( and around the world ) has been primarily in the financial and real estate sectors of the economy. That's why stocks, bonds, and home prices are rising, while everything else is flat. Prices will inflate only in the areas where the credit expansion is directed.

Politicians and Central Bankers have no control over averting a deflationary collapse, once it begins. Confidence is the determining factor. If investors lose confidence in a government, they will dump the paper faster than the government can issue it. This tremendous deflationary power of lost-confidence has been seen over-and-over throughout hisory.

I posted this once and I'll post it again for my buddy Ted. It is a cool Pic. of him fighting Whales and Great White Sharks and WhiteCaps. It is a larger file but well worth the wait. If you don't have zip...get it.

Can someone post the site for Zip?

Ted ( salty Dog ) - Do you see the big fin in the background?? If you look real close you can see the shark licking it's chops ( big fat gring thing )

away...to kayak in the tub


Thanks tolerant1 . I get the general picture, its the details I am worried about.

JTF:
Excellant post. You question for ANOTHER is solid and the implications do look to be "catastrophic" in regards to major financial institutions and "Nations" on the wrong side of these trades. That implies a bigger concern for me ... how is the little guy say in the U.S. ( which looks to be on the wrong side BIGTIME ) going to be able to position himself safely. Our government will take gold and anything else it needs if it can, I once angain fear that ownship overseas may be critical. Have you set up your overseas accounts may be the question of the moment.
I agree it is very nerve racking. The only good news maybe that
"This will happen over many, many years as
no other official market outside the BIS will exist. " and thus we can manage and move resources as it unfolds.

Horsepucky - This is absolute horsepucky. Buy gold people, silver, and then buy silver and gold, and if you have room, buy gold and silver.

Lending by the Bundesbank and other central banks may be a prelude to further sales, said Urs Frei, a gold trader at Credit Agricole Indosuez in Geneva: "Trying to get more money out of their gold in this way could be the first step to selling it one day."

"You don't know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out."
Crunch-Time For Hedge Funds?
http://www.adtrading.com/adt20/hedge.hts

An Open Letter to Victor Niederhoffer
http://www.adtrading.com/adt20/editor20.hts

Charts at the bottom of page show current lack of interest:
Equity Index Futures Market Data
( Nikkei 225 Futures, Nikkei 300 Futures, Nikkei 300 Intercontract Spreads )
http://www.dir.co.jp/Investment/derivative/qdve1101.html

Intra-day Average Deviation, Nikkei 225 Futures
http://www.dir.co.jp/Investment/derivative/qdve1211.html

EB
Winzip
http://www.winzip.com/

Awesome SDRer.

Date: Sun Nov 16 1997 13:29
SDRer ( @Another.Seeking a boon ) ID#286249:

A.Goose: The government is in for a rude awakening if they try to suck the people's blood. I keep telling you people, the right and everything to the right of them is going to get very pissed off.

Trust me. The individual the other day that took a swipe at the US Marine Corp. got their clock cleaned. And pronto.

If you didn't get the message, here it is. This new paradigm, politically correct crap don't flush with a huge cross section of the United States population.

I am an umpire, I call them the way I see them.

This was as clean a strike right down the plate as I have seen. ( KEYWORD HERE - RIGHT )

My last post incorrectly indicated that GF = US$ 208. That was wrong. GF= US$ 1.94 is correct, and gold is converted by BIS @ $208 per fine ounce. Sorry for the earlier incorrect information.

I sure hope you are right tolerent1. I like liveing here.

Date: Sun Nov 16 1997 14:00
tolerant1 ( @Tequilaville ) ID#31868:

roebear,
Any luck getting response from any news organizations?

SDRer, Or yet another Another: "Life isn't one damn thing after another, It's the same damn thing over and over."

The real estate credit market here is fixin to skyrocket. Until two weeks ago one could not borrow on the equity of their home. I wandered to the post office today to gather the last weeks mail. Inside were four infromation letters wanting me to contact lenders for an application for my low intrest, tax deductible home equity loan. The hype before the elections mentioned from four to ten billion dollars in equity in homes that would be available if the ammendment passed. Every one I know is talking about getting a home equity loan. This will all take place after Jan 1st. In the great scheme of things it might be a drop in the bucket, but with the energy sector heating up and the influx of bankers that did not go through the 1980's depression this might be a spark to keep the fire going for a little while longer.

The man whose words move the world's stock
markets keeps the bulk of his personal fortune in cash.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan - who
sparked a stock selloff late last year with his
"irra-tional exuberance" speech, only to watch stocks
promptly recover and climb even higher - keeps about
$2 million in cash, according to his most recent
financial disclosure statement.
http://www.nypostonline.com/business/623.htm

ANOTHER
Interesting, your post at 10:20.

The BIS will not allow the distribution of all gold to settle
claims. The mines of the world will be forced to sell to the
BIS at the locked existing commodity price of gold. This
will happen over many, many years as no other official
market outside the BIS will exist. 

Correct me if I am wrong, but you are implying that soon,
the respective goverments will be forced to mandate that
all mines will be obliged to sell 100% of their production
to the BIS at a fixed price, for years to come? This
obviously makes sense if the mine has to cover his
outstanding gold loans, but you are implying the creation of
an absolute theft ( as has happened before many times in
history ) of peoples gold, which will create an automatic
black market.

I watched this happen in Venezuela with the gold miners
during the during the draconian exchange control measures.
The miners were obliged to sell their production to the
Central Bank, at less than half of what they could sell it for
on the street. Hence offically, gold production during this
time had an extreme slump. But in reality, everybody
worked mined more the ever, and just sold it on the black
market, where their black market bolivars bought twice as
many goods as before ( and after ) the exchange controls.
Correlating this to your scenario, ( and adding my
extrapolation ) , you are indicating the creation of an
international gold black market. I think this will be very
hard to control, as life will always find a way, so do the
markets in response to goverment restrictions. If the
mines must sell at a much lower fixed rate to the BIS ( or
CBs for that matter ) , they will simply close down.........or
lie ( read self protect ) .........about their production. But on
a more personal level, It seems that the goverments must
( in their point of view ) confiscate ( rob you of ) your gold, in
order to control the general population. This will result in
distorted crime sentences for illegal gold dealers, making
gold traffiking and drug traffiking similar offenses.
Hmmmmmm

Next you said: Understand, they only lend their good
name on paper, not the gold itself. The gold that is put on
the market in these deals belongs to someone else! The
question is not Are the CBs worried for the return of
gold? but, Has our paper been lent to the wrong
people?.

So you are saying that all the outstanding gold loans that
exist from the CBs, never really left the CBs vault, and
that a paper note of possession was issued in their place? I
had always understood that the object of the borrowers of
gold ( principaly mines ) was to obtain the physical to be
resold on the spot market, then to be replaced by the mine
at a later date. So you are saying that even the spot market
is a paper market. Hmmmmm
ADAMs post about the goverments reposssion of mines
in their default to gold loans ties in interestingly with this
gold loan paper chase.

Next:  Think that I a fool, because I trade gold for
thousands US an oz.? You will think much on this in the
future.

I still see no benefit of intenionally paying 3 or more times
for something that is readily available.

Next: ....... no country can own its gold as the BIS has ties
to all of it. .............The BIS, instead of taking it outright,
places it where its needed!

Can you explain this. Control and ownership can be
sometimes constued as being one in the same, but the BIS
definitely does not have absolute control over the worlds
gold.


Youre starting to reach into the next great phase of the
gold manipulation game, and your perspective is very
interesting.
Thanks.
Cmax

George Cole: "Capitulation" refers to the gold market - OK. How much more capitulation can we stand? We are at a 12 year low, for God's sake.
I am waiting for equities to "capitulate". Since the fundamentals of the financial system are so screwed up ( bad loans, etc. ) it would seem reasonable to think that equities would tank.
Also, what is the difference between a "secular" and "cyclical" bear markets?
Thanks for sharing the information.

"Greenspan thinks we're heading for a crash. He's
putting his money where his mouth is and making a
statement about irrational exuberance."
Former FDIC Chairman Bill Seidman was surprised
he held such a large cash position, but said,

Thanks Mate!! Have a cyber beer on me. I know it is quite early there but it's beer-o'clock somewhere in the World. Unless you must go to work...in that case have a few ;- )

Are you Aussies fixin to push down the price today ( Monday ) ?? Let's get the ball rollin'........downhill please...

away...to the Jackal...oh my...


What country before ever existed a century and a half without a rebellion?The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure.

Thomas Jefferson
[1743 - 1826]

Greenspan keeps his money in cash because virtually anything else would mean a conflict of interest or appearance of same. No meaning beyond that.

tolerant1: is there any way we can talk off line?

So purchase mines that are not into the BIS. I can assure you that there are plenty of mines out there that don't get touched.

tolerant@hotmail.com

Another excerpt from BIS annual report 3/31/97:

"Five-year summary of the Balance Sheet ( in millions of gold francs )

Financial year ended 31st March
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Gold
Held in bars 4726.9 4338.3 4373.4 4364.2 3547.3
Time deposits 413.0 579.8 541.8 637.3 956.7
& advances
Total 5139.9 4918.1 4915.2 5001.5 4504.0"

It is easier to see why the price of gold has come down so much. I am going to see if any quarterly reports since March 31 are available and will post any info I find.

Well, again on previewing this information, the columns do not line up. Does anyone know how to enter this information so the columns will line up?

Yet teo more "Internet" spawned conspiracy theories bit the dust this past week. The co-authors of the TWA flight 600 shoot down by U.S. missile was dismissed by the co-authors themselves as a baseless hoax designed to further their own anti-govt. agenda.

The second hoax was the longstanding "I woke up and they'd stolen my kidney" hoax. In this one, someone is drugged in certain cities such as Vegas or Miami, they wake up with stitches, a note, and a kidney missing. This has supposedly happened to dozens or even hundredsof unwary "victims". Uh huh.

The CDC and National Kidney foundation just published the results of a massive investigation into the matter, including advertisements in national media seeking ANYONE who would come forward to tell of their ordeal and have it verified a medical team. Guess what? Not a single taker, and not a shred of evidence turned up that this was anyting but yet one more massive internet fraud on the incredibly gullible cyber community.

WALL STREET WEEK AHEAD-Stocks still on the seesaw

By Huw Jones

NEW YORK, Nov 16 ( Reuters ) - Jangled investors face more rough rides this week as the stock market attempts
to recover from its battering, while Asia's financial turmoil and Iraq's stand-off with the United Nations fuel
uncertainty.

Japan's banking woes are also coming under the spotlight.

The Dow Jones industrial average, which has still not fully repaired the 554-point plunge to 7,161.15 on October
27 closed Friday at 7,572.48, up 84 points.

``Typically this takes six weeks to settle down after something like this,'' said Peter Canelo, U.S. equity strategist at
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter.

``My guess is that by early December, we should be seeing some stability in global markets, and a resumption of
the uptrend in the U.S.,'' he said.

After Hong Kong and South Korea, skittish investors are looking closer at Japan, especially its fragile banks.

``Everybody is so concerned about Japan,'' said Brad Weekes, managing director of equity trading at Donaldson
Lufkin & Jenrette.

U.S. bonds rallied Friday as investors sold Japanese bank stocks and ran to a safer haven, traders said. U.S. trade
with Japan is bigger than with all the other Asian countries combined.

``The market still needs to be rid of these global jitters. Unless we can make a very strong move upwards, I
suspect the market still needs to correct on the downside,'' said Peter Cardillo, director of research at Westfalia
Investments.

Last week, some economists cut their 1998 forecasts for U.S. growth because a slowdown in Asia will crimp
profits of U.S. technology companies and banks in particular.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Asia's impact on the U.S. had been modest so far, but will ``not
be negligible''.

Some investors, however, are not put off by Asia's woes.

``We find Asian stocks, especially Japanese stocks, to be the best bargains in the world. We have been buying
them and expect them to do well,'' said Craig Callahan, chief investment officer at Meridian Investment.

U.S. stocks were now at fair value to slightly underpriced, with choppiness set to continue, he said.

Asian turmoil has, so far, overshadowed rising tensions in the latest stand-off between Iraq and the U.N. over arms
inspectors.

``Apart from any impact on oil prices, I don't think the stock market much cares,'' said Canelo.

Even if armed action develops, oil prices are not expected to shoot higher unless neighboring oil producers are
disrupted because supplies are plentiful, analysts said.

On Sunday, the United States said it has received a commitment from Russia to intervene in the crisis.

This week's batch of economic data would normally be watched carefully by stocks, but with the threat of inflation
dimmed by Asia's turmoil, the chances of the Fed raising interest rates near-term are slim, analysts said.

On Monday, October's industrial production and capacity utilization are due followed Tuesday by consumer prices
for the same month.

Business inventories for September and real earnings for October are also set for Tuesday, with housing starts in
October are scheduled Wednesday

Good work Tyler Rose. I don't know of any way to keep the collumns lined up except to download it in the format that it was produced in. No help, I know. Where exactly are you accessing this information under the BIS site? Please give the exact url.

This information "seems" to run against what ANOTHER was saying.

To anyone

Can anyone give me a site for long term charts of gold price in yen. Gold was loosing value in yen terms for the past couple of years and I would now like to check the recent trends.

Thanks in advance

Here is the url for the bis publications:

http://www.bis.org/publ/index.htm

Nick: Your Kondratiev wave Kitco post failed to get through. Also the page 12 jpeg I can't open - can you post as pdf, or as a jpeg without any text? Thanks. For some reason, my recieved e-mails do not always get saved to my disk, eversince I told the server not to save the messages. I cannot find a "save" option in my version of netscape, so I don't have a clue what is happening. Did you see my post on Saddam -- Steve's posts on Kitco explain the mystery of Saddam -- he is like a cornered animal, and all he has is his missles and the weapons of mass destruction - the VX neerve gas in particular. Whatever the arab nations think of us, I would have thought they would be concerned about being downwind. Perhaps they don't know yet.
ANOTHER had me going for a while there. What if the LBMA melts down because there is no gold to trade? My guess after some more thought -- not much, because the world's economic activities are in dollars at 1 trillion/day -- still much more than the LBMA. It would mean that one of the hidden ways central banks can exchange wealth or debt would no longer be available for a while. But-- the price of gold will begin to rise -- perhaps abruptly -- unless somebody starts selling gold.

South Korean central bank staff resolve to go on strike


SEOUL, Nov 16 ( AFP ) - Some 1,000 staff at South Korea's central
bank and financial market regulatory agencies resolved Sunday to
launch a mass protest strike if parliament passes a package of
controversial financial reform bills.
The strike call was endorsed with applause and angry
anti-government slogans during a rally by the employees of the
central Bank of Korea ( BoK ) and two other watchdog bodies for
security houses and insurance.
The government has blamed the overlapping roles of the three
existing watchdog bodies for aggravating South Korea's current
financial turmoil, which was deepened by a string of corporate
insolvencies and the won's slide against the US dollar.
But the central bank union and many economists have accused the
government of seeking to tighten its control under the pretext of
market stabilization.
"The government must stop controlling the market," read a banner
during Sunday's rally.
Dozens of BoK employees have staged a continuous sit-in at their
headquarters in Seoul since Friday, crippling the central bank's
operations.
The stalemate in parliament has also delayed the much-awaited
announcement of a government bail-out package designed to halt the
downward spiral in the markets, centered on emergency funds for
merchant banks saddled with snowballing bad loans.
Analysts fear the total bad loans of some 30 merchant banks in
South Korea may exceed four trillion won ( four billion dollars ) by
the year-end.

Thanks for the update on the kidney hoax

Mr. Mick: Investor capitulation typically occurs DURING THE FINAL PHASE of a long bear market. This also is known as a selling climax. During these rare periods prices plunge to depths that were unimaginable at the peak.

The recent collapse of the gold market after prices had already been in a strong downtrend for 19 months is a classic case. It is very similar in many respects to the savage selling climax that ended the 1973-75 bear market in equities.

During that one prices just went down down month after month, punctuated by occasional sharp rallies to keep hope alive. The drop turned into a route towards the end of 1974 as stock prices fell to depths only the most extreme bears had contemplated 2 years earlier. Many blue chips plunged 50% or more from their peaks. Myriad secondary stocks dropped 70-80%. But when the smoke cleared, the stage was set for history's greatest stock bull.

Sound familiar?

The gold bear is now in its final climatic stage, but the stock bear is very young. Considerable time will be required to shatter investor confidence in equities -- recently at the highest level ever.

CMax, SDRer: I would like your opinions about my comments regarding ANOTHER's post today. I always feel as if he/she is speaking in riddles. Some facts I can believe, some make no sense. SDRer -- I got a big kick out of your response -- give him/her some riddles to think about too! However, he/she is does know something, but it is hard to separate the wheat from the chaff. My guess is that he/she does not understand all of the big picture -- but by communicating with us, he/she is getting better at doing it! Still worth reading the posts for info -- but the information yield is dropping.

More than 1 individual called in an eye witness report concerning the bright object ascending to the plane. These calls came in from Long Island.

99 out of the other 99 individuals have no Libertarian affiliations or anti-government sentiments. The witness that recanted said he was a Libertarian.

The only theories that have been produced come from the CIA, FBI and other Government organizations which explain that as the plane broke apart the front section started to fall to earth. The remainder of the plane ascended higher, in flames and was torn apart by the structural flaws created.

As the plane ascended in flames and then broke apart the sound of the explosion was supposed to have been heard at ground level several seconds later. This according to the theoretic report is said to have looked like a missile going up and impacting the plane.

That is the best theory that has come to light other than mass hypnosis.

I know several people that work at TWA, each of whom has at least 20 years experience, not one of them is convinced it was not a bomb or missile. According to them this "investigation" has been rather "strange" according to many of their peers.

For what it is worth. Each of them lost several long time friends in the incident.

I don't bring it up unless they look like they need a hug or a shot of Tequila.

here you go M.Sun
Date: Sun Nov 16 1997 14:43
M.Sun ( @YenGold ) ID#334194:


http://www.the-privateer.com/g-charts.html

Dear George, I appreciate and look forward to your thoughtful comments. Regarding this one:

* George Cole ( secular and cyclical bears ) ID#42953:
* The secular gold bear has indeed lasted 18 years. But this latest
* and most savage cyclical gold bear began in February 1996. Even if
* the secular gold bear is not yet over, this cyclical gold bear almost
* certainly is.

I would be intrigued to hear ( not because I doubt it, but out of interest ) some of your reasoning for saying the cyclical bear is almost certainly over. I realise that your reasons may be hard to summarise, and may partly be the "feel" of someone who's been at this business a long time.

Another question: under the assumption that your "almost certainly is" is "is", what are the implications for price action?

The rest of your article also raises question in my naive mind:

* Even under this most pessimistic assumption we should in time retrace
* half the loss since the last peak of about $405. But if a new
* secular gold bull is about to begin, bullion could easily hit $500
* during the next cyclical upswing.

Can "in time" be precisified at all?
Any reason for "half" rather than any other fraction?
Any reason for the figure $500 rather than any other?

This all comes from a combination of genuine curiosity and concern with timing my ( very small-time ) gold mutual holdings.
Anyway, best wishes and have a good week.
Peter.

TO ALL WHO BDLIEVE THAT GOVERNMENTS ALWAYS TELL US THE FINANCIAL TRUTH: How about this first paragraph from the top article on the first page ot today's Los Angeles Times: "The Los Angles Department of Water and Power, the nation's largest municipal utility, has amassed a staggering $7.5 billion in debt - $4.5 billion more than is shown on its books - a sum large enough to threaten the financial stability of the city."

How about that? What do you think will happen to the financial world if LA goes belly-up? ( As is posited in the article. ) Do yout think that this is the ONLY example of off the record financial shenanagins in the US? Hmm...Maybe the US govt has a few off-the-books financial problems, too?

In NY Post p.59, Robert Novak's "Inside Report" didn't see it online:

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has severed his long relationship with supply-side advocate Jude Wanniski, who has sharplycriticized current Fed policy. A Fed staffer recently informed Polyconomic, Wanniski's consulting firm, to stop sending material to Greenspan.

Wanniski has praised Greenspan since he took over at the Fed in 1987, but recently scolded him for not recognizing falling gold prices as indicating global deflation.

In an Oct. 29 report titled "Alan Greenspan, deflationist," Wanniski said the chairman "does not see the economic declines getting started around the world." In an open letter to Greenspan on the internet, he charged: "Throughout your life, you have been guided by the principle that gold conveys better than any other commodity the direction of inflation and deflation - but you have now changed your mind."

In NY Post p.59, Robert Novak's "Inside Report"

Then there's a picture of Greenspan with the caption:

"ALAN GREENSPAN Ditches goldbug crony"

New York-Nov. 14-FWN--THE COMEX DIVISION OF NYMEX TODAY
reported that Swiss Bank Corp., who will cease to act as
a Licensed Depoistory for the storage of gold and silver
deliverable against COMEX's gold and silver futures
contracts on Nov. 21, 1997, has informed the exchange that
Swiss Bank has been incorrectly reporting the amount of gold
and silver eligible for delivery against the respective
contracts.

Strad Master: For what it is worth. James Dale Davison and Lord William Rees-Mogg take many government figures to task on a constant basis. In addition they are on record with the following:

The Democratic Party will not win the Whitehouse again for another twenty-five years.

The welfare state worldwide will collapse.

The profound effects of deflation will continue to wreak havoc on the British economy and threaten it's government.

The Japanese stock, bond, and real estate markets will continue their uncontollable downward spiral, and Japanes banks will face enormous losses. As a result Japan may face a military coup.

A.Goose: Regarding ANOTHER, I think I was a bit carried away today. On retrospect, the secret LBMA trade is not that important -- but the dollar trade is. The day we need to worry about is the day the dollar falters -- that is some time in the future. I think the main point taken from ANOTHER's posts is that gold will eventually go up, and he/she gives us some perspective as to how that will happen. However, it is up to us to figure out the mysteries. Sorry if I caused you some alarm.

JTF:
It seems obvious to me that the LBMA is not trading
physical, but rather paper. What would be the security top
defend a clearing house that moves 1000 tos of gold per
day? I am now thinking that they trade zero physical.

As to whether ANOTHER is refering to a timeframe of
decades, I read it at his face value of years; however, he
has always maintained the violent movement up in a very
short time span, as in weeks or a few months. But to
counter this, he posted there is no limit to the amont of
( gold ) paper that they can print ( to postpone the
inevitable ) .

As to whether the LBMA trading is essential to the world's economic health, I would say yes, as at present, the LBMA is the gold central bank to the world. When you have commercial participants with such different ideologies, LBMA gold is the most practical
interface for their commerce ( i.e. Arab oil and Western paper )

Adios

Cmax

JTF ( @Home: Dollar trade still much bigger than LBMA trade. ) ID#57232:

I don't think you got carried away. These times are very nerve racking and with posts like ANOTHER's coming online, it is apropriate to analyze as quickly as possible. Of course, as the data sinks in we can better see the forest and the trees. I greatly appreciate your efforts. Thanks.
I do believe you are correct in saying that ANOTHER has part of the puzzle and posts here to gain other insights to help fit more peices into place.

Yes, it does!

Secretary of State Madeline Albright said Hussein's weapons "will not discriminate, if and when they are used, and therefore it is important for the region to understand that he is a threat. I'm very bullish on body bag manufacturers, I understand that the DOD has been having a difficult time purchasing the amount of bags they anticipate using. Many of the bags will be used for the civilian populations that are unlucky enough to be down wind of the DEADLY ANTHRAX, BOTULINUS TOXIN, and VX nerve gas. I am also worried about using the vaccines we have developed to protect our own troops...Gulf War sickness may be directly linked to these formerly untested vaccines we used on the troops prior to the last Gulf experience with Iraq.War is at Hand"

TOLERANT!: I know all of their predictions as I get their newsletter. There are those, though, who frequent this forum who don't seem to think that such things are possible since all the government figures are always spot-on honest. After all, how can markets decline when we have this continuing stream of wonderful, rosy econmic figures always coming our way? I've been awed by the government's ability to cook the economic numbers month after month and then revise them later when no one is looking. It is simply an amazing bit of legendermaine.

As reported in November Scientific American: In developing countries water borne and sanitation-related diseases kill well over 3 million annually and disable hundreds of millions more...

A billion people lack clean water.
1.8 billion do not have adequate sanitary facilities.
Infectious diseases and parasites are the result. ( smells too )

An estimate for providing safe water and potties: $68 billion over the next 10 years, or 1% of world military expenditures for same period.

Priorities? Shut up - give me my 30%/year and dont crash my party, stupid naysayer.

test

A Goose

Thanks for your post

hi gang , just been lurking for a while...Does anyone have the new figures on the Producer Price Index?????

This seems to be an indicator that the G-men have a bit more trouble toying with as it is tabulated from a non-government survey of purchasing managers... I Think??
It has been declining for several months straight...any comments would be greatly appreciated. Can anyone out there confirm my statements?

Sorry guys, Another has made another post therefore gold is going to sell off Monday or at least this week

Headlines from a 2-page article in UK broadsheet newspaper "The Observer", Sunday 16th November 1997 [by Observer heavyweights Will Hutton, William Keegan, Ed Vulliamy]:

"Are we going to crash?"

"Banks are collapsing all over South-East Asia; Congress has tied Clinton's hands; terrified depositors are pulling out of Hong Kong; Brazil's market has plunged 40 per cent. Look out, it's 1929 all over again..."

"Armed security guards bring in cash to a Hong Kong bank last week as depositors queue to withdraw their savings"

"The parallels are uncanny and unnerving. A United States where the President's free-trading authority has been questioned, wave upon wave of devaluation being forced upon Asia and Latin America, and national banking systems in these continents imploding from bad debts and risky lending..."

"There is a US Congress that in the small hours of last Monday morning refused the President the `fast track' legislation he required to negotiate international trade deals, showing that the political majority for free trade that has existed since the Second World War is threatening, in the US at least, to disintegrate..."

"The US banking system collapse in 1929 led to the Depression. Uncanny memories of that time are stirred today by the speed with which the South-East Asian crisis is spreading."

"The `domino effect' was coined to describe American fears that communism could spread from Vietnam to the rest of Asia. Nobody expected the dominoes to be financial."

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/finan.htm

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/u_s_oct_ppi_rose_0_1_2.html

Tolerant re your 14:54, I was one of those who "bit" on the missile theory when it surfaced, specifically because of the eyewitness reports of the bright ascending flash.

However, I also know how F.A.A. and F.B.I. investigations are conducted, and this was the most thorough investigation in ALL U.S. air mishap history! Yet not one SHRED of evidence ( according to last week's finals reports ) ever surfaced indicating a missle or bomd was involved.

As one who has worked on several failure analysis on flight related hardware, I can tell you that PLENTY of evidence would be there, had a missle or bomb been involved, especially with the incedible amount of detailed investigative work that went on in this case.

A massive conspiracy/ Only if you can keep a few hundred, honest men of integrity to renounce all they believed in previously and start lying for the Govt. ( for motives unknown ) . UmmHmmm. What do you think TWA or Boeing employee's are going to say? "Oh sorry victims, must have been our negligence that cause the crash"

then of course we have the co-authors of the original internet stories with their "radar" evidence and such ( which has been thorougly analyzed by experts worldwide and shown no missile existsed ) , now renouncing their story and admitting it was a hyped fraud to further their anti govt. sentiments.

Ahhh, but there will always be the gullible naive who would prefer to believe in a good conspiracy other than the facts uncovered by diligent investigators eh? Remeber, even coverups like the Navy's firing on the Iranaian jet and the blown gun turret fiasco, egenrally always get exposed when even a minor level of investigative work is done. You can only fool a few of the investigators, a little of the time. Someone always talks, and open's Pandor's box.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/us_ppi_confirms_infl_1.html

Bingo... H2O .... will someday be much more valuable than gold...this is why I am very bullish on water processing and filtration companies... the ultimate limited resource is drinking water...this is why i would like to have a nice little supply of $20 gold coins so that I my children and heirs will be able to exchange them for a gallon of pure H20....without water all assets are worthless...desease will spread like wildfire. In reference to $20 gold coins I have been having a hell of a time a filling orders with Blanchard they tell me that non are available at any price...in the past they could always pick up bags of them just above market values from Europe but the Blanchard folks tell me they are not available at any price via normal market channels.

Anyone have a similiar experience lately?

Thank you sir ...You are the best!

We just took a rather severe pounding by 3 El Nino spawned storms in the past week, ya Gloom & Doomers! Only I love the damn storms! We went to the beach and watched some huge 3 story rollers coming in a couple days ago, quite a sight compared to the usual puny 6 footers out there. On our way out the door to see if there's more big rollers today.

DOW gonna drop thsi week. Gold too. Silver will rise! And Platinum... that idiot "SadDamn" will continue his tricks, may make a feeble ( unsuccessful ) effort to shot at a U2 to gauge our reponse..and what kindof support he'll egt from his Arab neighbors.

Over and out for now.

Sell Gold, buy bottled water. Now if we could just figure out how to get that Gold outta seawater....

Puetz: Steve, I suspect we are talking about the same thing. What you call total deflationary collapse with currency ( credit ) value dwindling to zero, I see as the ultimate in rampant inflation i.e. the value of tangible assets soars in terms of currency ( credit ) . I would be satisfied to close the debate here. I see December 1 as the Waterloo for currency based assets and the New Era for the shiny stuff. The writing is on the wall. You will be proven correct!

Jeff Gordon just won the year's Nascar championship. This is bullish for the DOW cause he's a good All American sportsman and deserves the title, Apple Pie & baseball secure for another year. DOW poised to rise in the spring after this corrective phase doldrum activity. NO CRASH IN SIGHT!

Hate to admit this but the PACKERS loss to the COLTS today signals trouble for green and gold this week. Look for new lows in gold bullion and more financial troubles for currencies everywhere! The paper plunge has only just begun! And AG and company will do everything in their power ( read inflate ) to preserve the US Banking system. US will be the last one to fail, i.e. providing we haven't leased out FORT KNOX yet.

Ted: Nice picture. Cool kayak, color combination breathtaking. Red flak jacket ( smile ) green shirt blue cap & white kayak. Sea kayaking looks like fun.

to all: Another sounds like the big brother of "big trader". Have a nice day and wait ( with bated breath ) for the asian markets to open.

Current situation reminds me of how a wolf pack surrounds its intended victims. The pack then sets up an erratic rhythm of attack, taking turns lunging in and out around the ring until the prey is confused to the point of exhaustion. Then the hunters move in...and take it down.

CMax,A.Goose: Appreciate both of your posts.
A Goose -- it does pay to be cautious, doesn't it?
CMax - You think the LBMA is very important because it trades gold -- presumably the commodity of Central Banks, and those who do not want their trades public. I think you are right that it trades mostly paper, as well. However, all of these trades could also be done on the open markets. Any paper trades could equally well be done with the dollar, which trades at one trillion$ daily. The LBMA is still small compared to this. I think what would happen is that it would be harder for the "powers that be" to trade secretly. I'm not so sure there would be financial earthquakes if the LBMA closed down because there was no gold. Gold prices would go up, of course, but without a total meltdown of our financial systems.
Of course we will never be sure about this until we know what is being traded, and ANOTHER does not seem to know, does he/she?

The supposed integrity of your investigators has serious flaws. Currently there are several high-low profile cases in which evidence has been contaminated.

To suggest otherwise at this point would be pure folly given the testimony that has surfaced.

One must question everything as it relates to the amount of individuals that died in a flash. At best, that is the description of Flight 800. There is tremendous evidence that speculates what it was that DID NOT HAPPEN..

However, many shattered lives and untold millions of dollars later there is NO official word on WHAT DID HAPPEN.

90 some odd people saw something.

End of story.

November 16, 1997
Embattled Yamaichi considers three-way split, job cuts

TOKYO, ( Reuters ) - Embattled Yamaichi Securities Co. Ltd, whose share price plummeted to critical levels last week, said Sunday it is considering a restructuring plan that would split the group into three entities. It said it could also shut down some of its overseas operations and reduce staff.

"In order to help rationalize our business operations, we are now considering splitting our business, slimming down our international operations and cutting staff numbers," a senior Yamaichi official told Reuters Sunday.He added that all three ideas were still being discussed, and no definite plans had been made yet.The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported Sunday that the three entities would be a specialized wholesale service for corporate clients, retail service for individual customers and a company in charge of administrative management.

Yamaichi, the smallest and the most financially troubled of Japan's "Big Four" brokerage houses, would become the first of its securities companies to split its business operations. The restructuring being considered includes a gradual withdrawal from unprofitable overseas businesses, mainly in Europe and the United States, the Yamaichi official said.

It also includes cutting the brokerage's total employees, which were 7,484 as of end-September, by about a third to 5,000, mostly by attrition, the official said. He gave no timetable for the staff reductions, but the Nihon Keizai said the cuts will be made by March 2000.

Friday, shares of Yamaichi hit a record low of 96 yen before ending down 18.7 percent at 100 yen.Yamaichi shares have lost more than half their value since Nov. 5, when they closed at 228 yen, and are down more than 80 percent from the beginning of the year. The brokerage plunged into the red on a pretax basis for the April-September first half of fiscal 1997, and its earnings are expected to worsen if Finance Ministry penalties are imposed on it later this year in connection with the firm's alleged payoff to a corporate racketeer.

Rumors over Yamaichi's financial health have been swirling in the markets since last week, when Moody's Investors Service placed Yamaichi's bond rating and other ratings under review for a possible downgrade.Yamaichi's rating could become non-investment, or junk bond grade, if Moody's downgrades it further.

http://www.businesswire.com:80/cgi-bin/sr_headline.sh?/bw.111497/532831

There was a reference this past week on Kitco regarding Jefferson Coin and Bouillion. Is there such an outfit ? Is it similar to Blanchard ? Does anyone have their URL or 1-800 phone number. Thanks in advance.

CMax: ReRead your post. There is one more interesting point about this business with the LBMA. The LBMA is acting like a Central Bank using a commodity-based currency, likely to be the model for a backup currency for the EURO/ECU/EMU or the US dollar. It would not be good PR if it became generally known that the backup currency went belly up because the LBMA ran out of gold! Even if the general public never found out, it sure would have a major effect on the Central Banks ( or their equivalent ) that have presumably traded there for hundreds of years. Surely the LBMA has had liquidity crises in the past. Wonder how the problem was resolved then. Hard to research an entity that is essentially secret. Surely there must be records somewhere that someone with banking experience could locate. What happens to a member of the LBMA if it defaults on its obligations?

November 16, 1997
Japan economy woes high on new US envoy agenda

TOKYO, ( Reuters ) - Stern talk to Tokyo about its much-criticized economic policies and ailing financial system will be high on the agenda when new U.S. Ambassador to Japan Tom Foley formally assumes the long-vacant envoy post this week.

Foley, a veteran Democratic Congressman and former Speaker of the House who arrived in Tokyo Saturday, takes over the job with Japan's financial market turmoil threatening to spill over into world markets.


Foley, a silver-haired Democrat who served in the House for 30 years and was its Speaker from 1989-1994 before losing a re-election bid in 1994, replaces Walter Mondale, who resigned as ambassador in December 1996.

Some U.S. critics had opposed his appointment on the grounds he might be too soft on trade and not fight hard enough for U.S. business interests.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/JAPAN-ECONOMY-USA.html

800-593-2585 Ask for Russ Savage. Real nice fella. I have excellent dealings with the company. Service is excellent and there is no wait. When I say dealings, they are current and constant.

Pyramid: My last post was for you. RE: Jefferson Coin and Bullion. Sorry, I must have screwed up the post somehow.

tolerant1: I think the best answer to the question of Flight 800 is that it was brought down by an unarmed missle -- perhaps a kinetic weapon of some kind. There were too many witnesses and too much evidence. The P3 asking if it may be of assistance, and the military helicopter pilot being nearby is too much of a coincidence. And it does make sense in a perverse way that our military might be asked to save money by using commercial flights as targets ( out of range of course ) . The implication of friendly fire is too much to consider of course, and we will find out the truth in about 20 years, because a "security issue" or something like that was involved. Perhaps we were testing a secret anti-missle system that was supposed to stop terrorist missles.
All I can say is that I hope we monitor any small ships that could be the lauching site of a terrorist missle -- because the real thing is likely not far off. Perhaps someone out there has figured out how to supercharge a Stinger missle.

http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-11/16/072l-111697-idx.html

Sunday November 16, 8:56 am Eastern Time

Foreign partner possible for SAfrica Goldco- paper

JOHANNESBURG, Nov 16 ( Reuters ) - A foreign partner might be brought into South Africa's Goldco, the world's largest gold company planned by rivals Gencor ( GMFJ.J ) and Gold Fields ( GLDF.J ) , the Sunday Independent newspaper reported.

The paper said there was speculation that north American miner Homestake Mining Co ( NYSE:HM - news ) was waiting in the wings to join Goldco -- created by the merger of Gencor and Gold Fields' gold assets -- to provide an international perspective.

``There is another partner out there waiting to come and it will be a major foreign mining company,'' it quoted an unidentified analyst as saying.

Anglo American Corp of South Africa Ltd ( AACJ.J ) last week placed a hurdle in the way of the creation of Goldco when it voted its 15 percent against an increase in the share capital of Driefontein Consolidated Gold Mines Ltd ( DRFN.J ) ( Dries ) .

Dries has been suggested as a possible vehicle for the creation of Goldco.

Anglo, the world's largest gold producer, said it had voted against the resolution at a Driefontein general meeting because it did not have sufficient information on the merger.

Gencor and Gold Fields have said that Dries was just one of the possible vehicles that could be used to set up Goldco.

Gencor's Beatrix Mines Ltd ( BETJ.J ) was also being considered and a meeting of Beatrix shareholders was planned for Monday.

Anglo does not have a significant stake in Beatrix, which is 57 percent owned by Gencor.

LGB- are you stupid, or deceptive? The TWA 800 theory was NOT dismissed as a hoax by the author. Rather, he ( Goddard ) said he did not have evidence that it was a US military missle. That's it. The reason he gave is the Navy accounted for all their missles- something I find hard to believe, the way they've been losing planes lately. Get your facts straight. The kidney story? Tying those stories together is similar to the Clinton tactic for discrediting anything unpleasant. What company you keep!

JTF & ALL: I guess my point leans towards - It is not the quantity of investigation, but rather the quality.

Official investigations in the United States have been tainted by the murder of John F. Kennedy. Magic bullet...Cheese and crackers how stupid could somebody be.

Hey folks. Let's let Flight 800 alone. Too many people died, no answers. I am sure somewhere out there somebody knew somebody on that flight or was connected with it, that is looking at this site.

We sure can't solve it from our keypads. All the investigations, placing of blame, etc. will not bring them back to their loved ones.

May they rest in peace.

LGB- Jeff Gordon an All-American boy? His team owner has been doing quite a bit of illegal stuff around here ( not racing related ) . The only reason he's not in jail is because he has leukemia. Wrong again!

http://www.businessweek.com:80/1997/47/b3554205.htm

Attention Gold Buggers In The San Francisco Bay Area:

The 10th Anniversary of the Western Investment in Mining Conference Gold Show will be held at the San Francisco Marriott ( in San Francisco, CA, of course ) on November 30th and December 1, l997.

Information about the show can be obtained by Phone: ( 305 ) 669-1963... ( 800 ) 282-7469 ( only in the U.S. and Canada ) and FAX: ( 305 ) 669-7350. Also avaiable e-mail: iiconf@iiconf.com

Most of the familiar speakers, presenter will be there:

James Dines,Jame Turk, Rick Rule, Mary Anne Aden, Ian McAvity, Mark Skousen, Robert Bishop Adrian Day, Peter Grandich, Paul Sarnoff, etc, etc.

Some of the topics to be covered include:

Is This the Bottom?, Where To Put New Money in the Market, Wealth Preservation: It is too Late?, An Investor's Smartest Move In Today's Market, and Structual Changes Taking Place in the World's Mining Industry.

I plan to be there on December 1st, l997, not sure yet about the first day.

Any questions, please call the numbers provided.

If the gold price doesn't rise between now and then, they may change the name of the conference to the Annual Funeral Director's Meeting. Bye. : )

The 14 week RSI on the XAU finshed the week at some of the lowest levels since 1992. The last time the XAU was at 30% or less was the week of 4/16/92 and again the week of 11/27/92. From the lows made in Nov. of 1992 the XAU rallied 125% + in 10 months. Since 1992, the XAU 14 wk RSI did not get under 30% again until 4/25/97 and 11/14/97. Could it repeat?
If the same pattern repeats spot gold will make new lows in the 1st quarter of 98' while the XAU rallies 20% + from the lows.

My landlady has a collection of three large binders of Golden Replicas of United States Stamps ( proof replicas on a gleming surface of 22kt gold )

She wants to sell them. I know nada about stamps ( even golden stamps ) . Can anyone give me some ideas about the best way she can sell these stamps to get the best price. How would she go about finding out there current value? Would the current low price of gold indicate that this would not be a good time to sell? And any ideas you may have. Thanks.

I'll check back later or tomorrow. Will only be at the library for about an hour or so today. Again thanks for any ideas.

To: JTF@14:54, Carl@14:08, A.Goose@13:47

The above is irrefutable evidence that I am DISORGANIZED today!

JTF: Your post at 14:54 was, as A. Goose said, "Excellent" ( but then that's par for the course ) .

Re: Another post--I thought I might just a response that would at least
allow us to have a general feel of his/her p.o.v.
Another's post are great reading, and seem a paradoxical mixture of
inside knowledge and expertise and what, for lack of a better term,
I'll identify as innocence.

Or perhaps I getting to world-weary and blase. ( No. I don't think so. )

Hope all goes well for you both this coming week.

Hello APH:

Thanks for the XAU info. Have you done any work with the "ultimate oscillator" which is a technical indicator available at http://www.bigcharts.com ( You need Java to access ) . It is located under the "interactive" chart section. Go to technical indicators and look for "ultimate oscillator". It seems to give out some pretty good buy and sell signals on, for example, the 2-3 years daily xau chart. The symbol for the XAU index on bigcharts is ... xau

Would be interested in your analysis if you can access that site and the indicator section. Thanks.

http://www.businesswire.com:80/cgi-bin/sr_headline.sh?/bw.111497/533484

The more I read and reread The Great Reckoning - James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees-Mogg, the more I am struck with this eerie shiver. Some parts of the book are happening right before my very eyes. It would not feel so awkward if some of it were not practically verbatim.

Deflation is definitely what is to be the menu item. For those of you that have not read the book, I suggest a trip to the library or the local book store.$23.00 is the retail on the sleeve.

And when I say parts of the book, I mean long streaks.

There is also a great deal of information that is extremely helpful. I am not anywhere as well versed as some on this sight. If you feel the same way, I suggest the book highly.

Although I think betting on short term market moves is not much different
than going to Vegas, the US stock market 'held' the 7400 level twice last week, the upside resistence is at 7750, we will go up and test that resistence. For the week we will end up.

Gold also tested and broke its previous low of $307, since then it too has moved up in what seems more like a dead cat bounce. This should also be a plus week for gold, building on the late Friday rebound off of new lows.

tolerant1: Wow! We came across that book, while cleaning up my office, about an hour ago! We noticed the same thing! Got to revisit the book tonight. A must read, This one and the crash of 90 by Rabi Batra. They refer to him alot in "The Great Reckoning"

http://detnews.com:80/1997/biz/9711/16/11160063.htm

Regarding the XAU/Cycle chart at Yauger. http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Cycle.html

Note that a support line can be drawn where the lows of mid-1996, April, 1997 and the last weeks lows all meet, touching this support line. Also notice that the mid-96 and April, l997 ending lows occured at the SAME TIME as the ending of the 38 weeks cyle. ( See the area above the XAU Index chart. ) Our current low is also "in the area" of the ending of another 38 weeks cycle.

Did we see the low for the XAU Index last Wednesday? So far, I've got a 9 wave short term movement down from the Oct 1, l997 top. I'm hoping that last Wednesday low will hold. If it doesn't, we are into "free fall time". And that would definitely put a damper on the up coming Gold Show in S.F. : (

Byron - No I have not. I found the chart. Do you know how it is constructed?

I remember Ravi's Great Crash book... just another discredited economist cashing in on mankind'd deep needed desires for gloom... Funny I don't remember another Great Depression starting in 1990? Yes we did have a garden variety recession which was made a bit worse by the Bush tax hike. But no Depression then, no crashing markets, no end of the world.

Karlito, minor correction, that's dead "Hepcat" bounce. Nice to see some predictions that has some reasonbe chance of coming to pass for a change. Keep posting bro!

Byron: This might help with the collection you mentioned. Give Mr. Russ Savage a call at Jefferson Coin and Bullion - 1800-593-2585 -

I am sure he could point you in the right direction. He really is a decent guy and I am sure he would do his best.

APH: I did get a printout definition of the oscillator from the Bigcharts site, but don't have it with me at the library. You might want to explore the site and locate the "definitions" section. It should give you the infomation you are seeking.

One last thing before I head out--
I'm rather fond of bizzare market indicators, and wonder what this
one means ( as we head into the Asian trading week ) :

Came across one of those lists of Who's Reading What in America,
Britain, France, Germany and Japan.

There was the expected cross hatching between the 1st four countries.

But every book on Japan's list was a book about Computer Games!

What? Does? This? Mean?

Yes Karlito, I remeber that book very well and all the great "rationale" he had for the iminent crash. Course there were several previous books and "Analyst Newsletter's" with similar Gloom and Doom messages in the late 70's to early 80's, as well as the perpetual Bears who have been calling for a crash since DOW 2000, and cost their loyal readers the greatest sustained market gains in history.

There will always be a "Pword" analyst around to feed off the negativism, nihilism, and sensationalism of humankinds darker side. There's those that build and contribute to society and democracy, and then there's those that try to tear it down, eh?

APH: When you pull up a chart, for example the XAU, down at the bottom is "chart help". Click on that. Then click on ult oscillator and you should get info.

Donald.... good article on Social Security.

Just another example of those greedy geezers riping off the young.... There are fixes to the system that would not be terribly draconian if done now but the geezers main lobby arm AARP won't allow it.

I have this argument with my 86 year old ardently Republican father who insists that he 'paid' for his social security and has earned and desrves every penny he gets. It drives his blood pressure up when I tell him that he is on welfare.

JTF:
LBMA Default due to running out of gold is not possible.
As I see it, they are not like a central bank of a fiat currency
nation.....they are more like brokers that act as a clearing
house

the way CBs SHOULD BE RUN.

The difference is that they probably obtain a very small
percentage on each operation. If the party obligated to
deliver on the paper they push cannot supply, this has
nothing to do with the LBMA solvency. At that moment, I
guess market forces would simply revalue the paper,
probably until it became worth nothing. Then NEW paper
would appear, with new guarantees supplied by the CBs or
goverments, and voila, they are back in business. To clear
large amounts of physical daily, in one clearing house, I do
not believe is possible. The use of gold as money is,
always has been, and always will be. It can never be
totally controled. Life ( the markets ) will always find a
way. Note that I sail markets and not free markets.....
an overcontrolled market will always spawn a
black-market, ( another free market ) . The definition
depends upon your point of view.

Cmax

Thanks Tolerant1. Will pass info on to landlady.: )

Karlito: Just ask the Japanese! and George Bush!

Tolerant, you didn't by any chance attend that anniversary party of the Area51 coverup of the alien crash did you?? After all, there were al kinds of "witnesses" that wrote books and such. Course they've all been totally discredited by serious researchers, but we wouldn't want facts to ever stand in the way of our fantasy's about govt. coverups.

BTW, I'm quite familiar with Naval missile programs, having worked on several including SM2, and most of the SAM's they use. Virtually impossible to have covered up such a majpr firing so close in. An air to air between 2 small fighters, well out of radar range, maybe. Flight 800, no way, no how. Not with all the independant investigations working concurrantly.

WSF, WHo cares about the owner? Jeff's clean as Kleenex, and owners/sponors be damned!

In agreement once again Karlito! Socialist Security is a collasal confiscation from the young who may never be able to own homes and such, to give to the older folks who have paid off their homes and are now "living it up". There's one area that Pword and I and other's would agree. A ,assive pyramid scheme if ever there was one. Most of the folks on SS, paid in at 4% , 3%, etc of their gross, and that's when average gross earnings were one fourth or less than they are now. For every year they paid in say $400, they're now getting a yearly benefit check of $14,000 or more! We need self directed retirement programs a la IRA's and 401K's to replace SS as an option and just pay off the folks as a welfare program who have already "earned" their SS benefits.

( Hope WW isn't listening in.... hehe )

Amidst the currency chaos, mounting debt debris and stock market turmoil ravaging all-Asia, a voice emerges which goes to the core of the problems. John Kutyns observations and insights ring with Churchillian logic and clarity. In painful detail he paints the problems plaguing Asia... and with oracle eyes he foresees the havoc to be wrought before economic stability may be restored. His poignant observations regarding Japans forced action in US Treasuries and Gold will soon prove to be prophetic:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn111597.html

Karlito: Your are correct with the marketing plow of these books - the year 90 looked good. As to whether the info and predictions are correct, we will have to wait and see won't we? You have to admit Japan is getting the crap kicked out of them since 1990 and in these books they discussed the revolving depressions as they have moved around the developing world. I don't know about you but to me things don't look real good right now.

MSUN:This goes back to mid 1994.

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html

Is 915.25 on Globex correct?

Karlito: Now, of course if he spent a few pennies and wore a rubber, at $2000.00 a year for a minimum of 10 years and invested the money wisely, he would have plenty of money and no trouble with Social Security and no putz for a son.

No, I did not. What I did was sit with five friends who cried their guts out due to the loss of many, many friends who died in the crash.

Let it go stupid.

A voice in the ether said: "Course there were several previous books and "Analyst Newsletter's" with similar Gloom and Doom messages in the late 70's to early 80's, as well as the perpetual Bears who have been calling for a crash since DOW 2000, and cost their loyal readers the greatest sustained market gains in history. "

I don't see it as being that simple. THAT moment in history is when the financial system as we know it should have melted down. Again, as ANOTHER said there is no limit to the amont of ( gold ) paper that they can print ( to postpone the inevitable ) .

Our goverments surely have down a marvelous job at postponing the inevitable, but at what cost? Liquidations and reforms would have been much simpler then than today. These incredibly intelligent paper pushers created this incredible array of derviatives that we have today, even PAPER gold derivatives!! They newsletters were right.... they just didnt take into account the tenacity and inventiveness of those in power., selling more and more tomorrows out for today......there tomorrows, the children's, and their grand children's.
But , there come as point when not even the interests can be services on this paper behomoth, and neither can taxes be raised. They cant even print their way out this time....it will only excasperate the problem, causing more inflation and even more debt burden.

Tolerant, now we have JFK again! Geez what a Loonie. If you knew anything about forensic pathology or firearms you would know that the magic bullet syndrome occurs with great regurlarity, not to mention much more bizarre happenings with ballistics than that. Sometimes the plain old boring facts are true after all. Not everything in life is nafarious, though there's plenty that is.

Can someone confirm this???? E-MINI DEC97 915.25 -1725

Carl: I believe "globex" opens at 7:00 PM EST ( USA ) .

You're failing to take into account a point I've tried to raise here many times. When you look at money supply growth and the national debt as a percentage of GDP, it really has changed very little in decades. The sky ISN'T falling. Now I DO cring when I see how much of our Federal tax confiscation going to pay on the federal debt, and I owuld love to see them start paying it down, but looking at the bigger picture of population and economic growth ( which no one here ever seems to do ) , the so called "Bubble" is far less ominous than it is portrayed. Now if Carter and his Democratic congress and pal Volcker had hung around a few more years, maybe THEN we'd have had the collapse you all are jawin about!

They just corrected it: E-MINI DEC97 933.25 +75
False alarm, this time.....

Karlito, re Tolerant's 18:20. You see what I mean? With the post I made to you yesterday? And unfortunately he's not an isolated case here. Don't be disheartened though, I let it get to me last weekend and made my "final post" speech, but decided since then that the best counter to lunacy in society, is free speech response by the rational!

Carl: Does look as though Globex is opened. And the US Dollar is coming out of the box on the strong side. ( so far ) . One night does not a market make. :0

There were no plain boring facts in the murder of John F. Kennedy. But enough of this.

Let's get back to financial discourse.

CMax: Your 18:05 makes alot of sense. The LBMA is really a clearing house ( what it is now ) , and would make an ideal Central Bank that exists solely to handle gold currency ( gold Paper ) exchanges. In that sense it would be perfect as the world's bank as well, because it could not go under. However, if the paper part became inflated there could still be some commotion for a time.
I was not suggesting that 1000tons/day of physical gold was being exchanged, by the way.
Since the Central Banks, and other "powers that be" need this unofficial method of trading - if the LBMA went off line - it would not stay off very long, would it? All we would see is that the price of gold would go up.

Guys,
I for one would like to see this discussion go. None of you have anything constructive to contribute, pure speculations. I too knew a family who lost relatives in this flight. FBI investigation STINKS not because they did not confirm somebody shooting the plane down. It stinks because they did not come with any explanation what happened. If top dogs can not come up with any indication what went wrong and say "OK we give up, we don't know" IT'S WRONG. It's wrong for all the families who will continue to think what went wrong and why their loved one died.

It sure makes one wonder, if not missile, than it was mechanical failure, but because we need this big company going we don't want to say that.
Sorry guys, its a bit personal and just talking about it makes me sick.

Miro: You are correct, I agree. In addition I see my part in the previous, and shall refrain from such in the future.

Wrong again WSF. The story was publisized in virtually every media outlet, including a 60 minutes follow up story, and several articles in the Wall St. Journal, LA Times, SF Chronical, SJ Mercury News, Ruetres, et al, that both co-authors had admitted that they had NO EVIDENCE of a friendly fire incident, they had fabricated much of their story taking literary license to make a point, had no evidence of a coverup, had intentionally misrepresented their "fqacts" and they apologize for the deception.

You ever read anything or do you just make up the facts as you go along? Do a little research and you'll see once again that ignorance is not bliss.

LGB's claim are, once again, wrong. Ian Goddard's statement is
available for anyone to read.

Look Miro, I can't disagree that Flt 800 is off topic. The thing that really gets my blood going is that I'm very familiar with that flight, having taken it numerous times on my way to Israel from New York ( it connects in Paris usually ) , and also knew a co-worker who left us during that trajedy.

I just find the totally irresponsible speculations to be cruel to the families involved, especially after they've been so totally disproven. It's cruel junk science, mixed with sensationalist conspiracy nonsense of the worst kind. It's very hard for me to let such Moronic nonsense slide by here without a response.

Peter: I meant to say the gold bear almost certainly will be over soon -- not that it is already over. By soon I mean before the end of the year.

But the yellow could fall further these next few weeks before the bottom is in. I am looking for a violent reversal -- say gold plunges $10+ one morning, but rallies to close with a gain -- as a signal that the bottom is in. Another possible signal would be gold stocks failing to follow bullion lower.

!!!!!!!!!!!APEC meeting in Japan months ago!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
warned governments in area to reduce
debt. Now why would they do this!!!!
Australia ordered to sell gold to
Sth Korea. Why! Well I just think
they knew they had to prop Sth Korea
against the falling won. Interesting
to note the rise in price of gold in
these ailing countries. How opportune
it was for Sth Korea. This collapse
was seen by authorities as inevitable.
THERE IS NO QUESTION ABOUT IT. Lemmings
just happen to like being told the DOW
train will not leave the tracks because
it justifies the position, on advice,
they have taken.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

LGB: Where have you been all these years? It does not matter whether you believe flight 800 crashed by accident or not. Our media now is monolithic, and easily influenced. Only CNN is relatively unbiased. All you need to do is read the European papers to see how much is being suppressed. You need to expand your horizons and look at news generated outside this country - especially England. I find it humiliating that in the "land of the free" I must read foreign newspapers to find out much of the truth about America. In a few months you will see the American papers pick up the news that was in Europe first, such as the business with secret information being leaked to the Riadys via the department of Commerce. That used to be called treason in our country. Good thing it still is in other countries, and good thing Janet Reno has had all she can take.

LGB:
In that you responded in a civilized manner, I will take
exception and address you directly. I hope your postings
remain as such.

Has money supply and national debt not expanded as a
percentage of GDP? Your numbers are grossly incorrect.
Even compared with the demographics, the per capita debt
has gone thru the roof.
Where are you getting your numbers??

I thought EB was obsessed with you but
I see that it is you that is obsessed
with Steve Puetz.
Why don't you get over it and move on
with your life. It is getting rather
tireing reading about your obsessive
compulsive behavior. Do you wash your
hands alot during the day?

Go to the beach and watch the waves
like you said. Get the stink blown
off of you. Pay a little attention
to the wife and kids for a change.
She might like it. I know many here
will. Except for Karlito and Gloomy
Gustavo. And EB. Maybe you can jump
on one of those three story waves
and then brag about the ride when
you come back. You can tell Puetz
and the others all about it during
your billion posts tonight. So say
farewell forever to all. And then you
can come back. Like you do.
Who is obsessed?????????????????

Planes fuel was the cause. You morons.

Eldorado - Re: Your Fri. Nov.!4@16:11 ..."I guess we are now hearing the 'crying in the streets'...". Never mind the crying in the streets, how about 'DYING in the streets? Yes, fellow Kitcoite's, the dreaded disease of '29 and '87 is back and with a new name from the nineties, no longer called 'Superman Syndrome' it is now known as " The Guzman Disorder". This item I gleaned from this Saturday's Toronto Star business section.
INVESTOR KILLS HIMSELF
Hong Kong ( Reuters ) - A Hong Kong science teacher, stilled clutching his share certificates ( ! ) , lept 28 floors to his death after losing money in the stock market's recent plunge.
Yu Keung-lun, 25, jumped from a window in a Hong Kong industrial district on Thursday and was certified dead after arrival at hospital, the South China Morning Post said yesterday.
The newspaper quoted his mother as saying Yu had lost money in the recent stock market slump, which has seen the benchmark index fall 40 percent since early August and causing many to lose money... "

Jan - Re: Your Fri. Nov 14 15:59. I heard a rumor that there was another way to spell - RUMOUR!

Major - Re: Your Nov. 14 15:51. Don't go getting so negative on us! ( And please do yourself a favour, by accurately checking the percentage of my past correct calls, before buying hook, line, and sinker the Hepcrap that it is only one in ten. ) You know very well that my comment was made in a friendly manner and that I was merely pointing out that the newspaper 'analysts' were parroting, almost verbatim, ideas that Kitco participants
were privy to a week earlier. This happens almost everyday of the week and I sincerely believe that many of the world's mainstream newspaper 'analysts' actually glean many of their 'ideas' from these pages without ever giving credit to the actual 'sources' of their info.
On other matters it was not I who made the Scorpion allusion. Also, I believe that you do most here a disservice by suggesting that they do not have open minds. That is in fact one of the main points hereabouts, that the majority in the financial world are presently caught up in a delusional mania in which THEY can only see 'one' point of view, and thus make all facts fit THEIR vision of the world as they see it.
One last point. PERHAPS the self-pitying section of your post ( see below ) was initiated in some part because I did not reply immediately to your previous retort to me. WELL, that sometimes happens because after people post they sometimes pack it in for a while and go out elsewhere to play or work.
If you really are a 'BIG BOY' now, as you claim, I would suggest to you that you do not whine that your posts are ignored, ( vis ) "...I have been peeking though this window for some time now actually.But too often posts of mine were either ignored or givin little usefull response. ..." This, too, is the nature of the place. There are just TOO many
meaningful posts for us all to be commenting on. I sometimes read upwards of twenty or more insightful posts a day that I feel like responding to. It's just not possible and often times most of us here barely have time to even read everything that is written here. I can understand your misconception, however, as many new participants feel the same way at
first, ( ie. - that they have said something useful and elicited no response ) , it happens to us ALL - a lot of the time. Once you get over that you''ll enjoy the site more, realise that participants ARE absorbing your message even if there is no immediate response, and stop being so
paranoid . Maybe this message is a little stall now due to the fact I have not caught up on Sat. or Sun. posts. If so I apologise in advance.

Thanks EB!

Miro: You are right -- I will stop posting for a while -- I dont' usually get involved this way. It only disrupts the site. I suggest LGB that you do the same -- you don't take long to fill up the bandwidth.

Things here are topsy-turvy as usual--I tune in to find LBG back and Tolerant1 calling somebody stupid over something. Once again mere anarchy loosed upon this thread.

Stall=STALE!

LGB, I took that flight a few times myself, my kids took it a bunch of times. Friends of my sister in law who is Swiss citizen died on that flight. USA has this conspiracy theory, abroad they talk about mechanical failure and how it happened for a long time. I can tell you the USA is not winning any friends the way we handled the whole affair. I hear it over and over "all you Americans care about is money and politics and you do anything what it takes to take care of that but give a damn about the people"
It's hard to hear it from my own family.

John Kutyn
17 November 1997
Back to Gold Digest
Copyright  1997 vronsky and westerman

****************Currency Chaos and Financial Collapse Part 1**********

*****Debt is repaid from income or profits. When income or profits are insufficient to repay debts, default occurs.

*****Gold has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars in bank loans outstanding that are not supported by either the income or assets of the borrower. It has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars in government bonds that are supported by no assets and which interest costs now take up large amounts of government tax receipts. The only thing holding world wide financial markets together is confidence. Confidence that governments and bankers will not let things get out of hand. Confidence that requires the price of gold to remain low.


*****The banks are large holders of government debt, and while it could
be argued that the government could borrow even more money from the banks and then turn around and give this money back to the banks to improve their equity positions, this simply amounts to transferring debt and does not address the central issue that neither the banks or the government are financially solvent.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn111597.html

*****Debt is repaid from income or profits. When income or profits are insufficient to repay debts,default occurs. ( Example PGU )

Are not John Kutyn and John K. who posted here one and the same?

Come on Pword, I KNOW that 19:05 was you! Come clean dude!

George -Re: Your 18:56. Once again I find myself agreeing with you, although that might be a dangerous position to take these days :- ) , especially as the spot price has been dropping in a step by step manner for a long time now. IMHO - For the bear to end and a long term gold bull to begin one of two things must happen. 1 ) Eventually the market must build a sideways base for at AT LEAST a one to two week period before breaking out significantly to the upside, or, 2 ) ..."gold plunges $10+ ( my guess = PLUS! )
one morning, but rallies to close with a gain ..." thus causing upside momentum to begin as more and more shorts cover and as more and more participants get LONG on the bandwagon now that they have finally been given their SIGN.
Could be wrong, but I believe that this is the usual way reversals start out.

I read the article in the November issue of WORTH Magazine, by Peter
Lynch. Lynch made the Fidelity Fund the # 1 fund in the world to most
people here in the USA. His article, "WHY YOU SHOULD BUY GOLD IN THIS
ECONOMY", rings with true logic, and believe me, this is one man that
has proven over long years that he knows what time it is.

For the conspiracy Moron's among us, or interested parties interested in the facts.... Mercury News story, 11/6/97,

A man who used the Internet to accuse the Navy of shooting down TWA Flight 800 told CNN on
Wednesday that his actions were ''reckless and a mistake.''

Ian Goddard said he just wanted ''to give the government a black eye by any means that looked
opportune,'' according to the Cable News Network. ''TWA 800 was just a vehicle for my larger agenda.''

( SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS , 439 words. )

( Full text available by subscribing to San Jose Mercury News online edition, library )

Links to Flt 800 comments & other conspiracies on Web;

http://www.seattletimes.com/extra/browse/html/altnett_111196.html ,

http://clever.net/cam/cyberlib.8.html

http://www.thebee.com/bweb/iinfo30.htm

http://www.nd.edu:81/~astrouni/zhiwriter/97/97010205.htm ( excellent! )

JTF, why would you stop posting? The heck you would be the one least offensive posters on this site. Keep your fingers on a keyboard ;- )

Murrstein:Did the article about Peter Lynch say whether he meant gold or gold stocks? I recall Peter Lynch was bullish on gold at least 6 months ago -- so he would have gotten caught in the gold bear like the rest of us. He may be a brilliant investor, but I don't think he is necessarily a gold investment specialist. But then, many of the specialists got burned too!

NIKKIE HOME: http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/
ARIGATOK!

November 16, 1997
Japan Hokkaido Takushoku disposing operations -NHK

TOKYO ( Reuters ) - Japan's 10th largest bank Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Ltd. plans to dispose of its operations because of its bad loan problems, Japanese media reported Monday.

NHK television said that a regional Hokkaido bank, Hokuyo Bank, will take over Hokkaido Takushoku's regional operations while it sought a buyer for its Tokyo area operations. The reports by NHK and Jiji news agency followed an announcement by the Finance Ministry, Bank of Japan and
Hokkaido Takushoku that they would hold separate news conferences Monday morning about the future of the bank.

The Bank of Japan will give Hokkaido Takushoku special uncollateralized loans in order to protect its depositors, mainly in Japan's northernmost prefecture of Hokkaido, NHK said.

The troubled bank, with assets of 9.5 trillion Japaneses yen ( $76 billion ) , had in September postponed its planned merger with crosstown rival Hokkaido Bank Ltd. because of the former's massive problem loans.

JTF: I think it is clearly safe to say that more and more investment people will be pounding home the thought that gold is a good way to protect ones self.

At some point people are going to have to face the music, and leading people down the path to financial suicide will be considered criminal. There will be huge litigation when this thing explodes like it must.

The magnitude of my last expression was a
Euclidean four dimensional continuum,independent
of your choice of reference.It is obvious you do not read too well

Through the defeat of Fast Track WE progressive Democrats have dealt a blow for freedom around the world. Your Conservatives like Newt are so caught up in the CFR and other orgs that with their arrogance from the Clinton induced Progressive defeat in 1994 that they can not see what is happening. The weakening of Clinton will redound to the benefit of progressives and not the Dickensonian Newt elitists. Even though I am an economic progressive I am a social conservative. I abhor the conservatives who are for killing babies but love their Wall St portfolios. I hope God has reserved a special place in Hell for this attitude.

Silver up 6 cents and heading straight up.

Japan is truckin right along! +418.08 +2.77%

I can't recall making light of the Asian crises. true there are serious problems in Korea and Japan, the two largest economies. But do keep it in perspective. Japan's vaunted "Depression" that everyone is discussing, involves a record THREE percent unemployment rate! ( As reported last week ) . Not excatly a 1929 type collapse is it?

Re Korea, a more serios problem as Japan holds a lot of their paper, and Japan holds a lot of U.S. T bills, and we did see the Nikkei break below that "critical" 15,500 level this past week. However, let's keep in mind that even in a worst case scenario, with Japan dumping U.S. paper to fund their shortfalls and liquidity problms, we'll have very little trouble finding alternate buyers for them "T".s.

The U.S. long bond is yielding 6% approximately. In a worldwide deflation, this will be a DAMNED attractive investment. The dollar remains king.

November 16, 1997
US investors to keep wary eye on int'l stocks, oil

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Uncertainties ranging from a rumored Japanese banking system bailout to vulnerable emerging market debt to Mideast tension and U.S. corporate profits could all ripple through U.S. financial markets this week, analysts said.

"There's this anxiety that feeds into the U.S. markets from other parts of the world," said William Cheney, chief economist for John Hancock Funds, a Boston, Mass.-based mutual fund company. "People are much more focused on risk."

One unknown that the financial markets must contend with is the tension between Iraq and the United States. Sunday, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz said in an interview that Baghdad would let U.S. arms monitors into Iraq if the five permanent Security Council members each had equal representation on U.N. inspection teams.

Profound Japanese stock market losses have made the U.S. Treasury market subject to fears of Japanese repatriation of assets, analysts said. Some players expect Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei 225 index to slump to levels not seen in five years amid alarm over Japan's financial system and its weak economy.

"But if it keeps declining, Japanese banks might not be able to meet reserve requirements and they might have to sell foreign assets. That could put pressure on U.S. Treasuries where Japan has heavy investments."

"Japan is the place in Asia to focus on," Cheney said. "The problems of their financial institutions are so deep ... there is a lot of scope for bad news to come out of Japan."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/MARKETS-INVESTORS.html

LGB: Sorry. That 19:05 was not my posting. I'll bet you $1,000,000 it was not me. 1-to-1 odds. We'll have Bart Kitner verify it. You wanna bet?

LGB: By the way, the full moon has passed, and the love-fest is over. I'm back to my old self -- your respected nemisis.

To my friend LGB, Let's forget our feud. Let's be friends.

HUH...INTERESTING...: http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/1/nfrnt03.html
SAWATDEEKARP!

OK Rodney King, "Why can't we all just get along?" That 19:05 posting is not my ID #.

MurrStein: You are a Physicist? So am I! I am not sure how 4 dimensional Euclidian geometry has to do with Peter Lynch, unless you mean that he had the idea right, but that he was temporally out of sync ( wrong time coordinates ) . Don't need general relativity for that, do you?

I believe you Steve, after all, I see all kinds of folks saying I posted as Karlito, Or Gus, or that I'm Hepcat, et al. Now then my Lunar loving friend, I have a peace plan.

How's this, I apologize for all the exceedingly nasty personal insults, and you promise to stop bad mouthing yer country dammit! Then we go and and have a friendly rivalry on DOW crashes and such, what say you Puetz?

"Where ya been all your lives? Listening to hard rock music and Bad mouthin your country I'll bet! Where you from boy? Indiana? All they got in Indiana is Steers and Queers, now which one are you boy??"

( The D.I. in opening scenes, "Officer and a Gentleman" )



"Wh

Excuse me. That 20:05 posting is not my ID#.

Will the REAL Puetz please stand up and tell me whether the crash is a happenin this week or not. I won't make fun, I PROMISE! ( At least until tomorrow!! )

Goooooo Silver.....

LGB: I'll smoke the peace-pipe -- as long as you keep debates non-personal, and concentrate on ideas rather than heckling. Let me know your replay. Can I trust you?

JTF, you're a physicist!? No wonder you believe that Newton's second law of Thermodynamics is what will be the guiding force behind today's economic conditions! ( Just funnin ya )

Given all the talk of mines sold forward, speculators holding large short positions, and increased demand, it would seem to me that the junior companies would make a mint.

What am I missing in this equation.

JTF: Re: Saddam/CIA Post of mine. Very interesting to note the bragging
of the CIA appointing a propagandist during 1991. Watch out for the same tell-tale signs again. That site is a good start me thinks. I wonder sometimes if I was an Iraqi, how I would feel towards MultiNationals?
Anyone got a Yankee flag to burn??

SAVING FACE: Very interesting to see the post of the young HK science teacher commit suicide clutching his stock certificates. This is a classic symptom of saving face. Particularly a problem in Asia.

We too have a face saving outfit in Australia. It is the Federal Govt. They had this great brain wave to save tax & tax the rich by introducing a "Superannuation Contribution Surcharge ( the tax you have when you promise not to have any new taxes this term ) ". Initially it went down well with the declining Middle Class, until all the retirement boffins such as myself realised it was a legislative nightmare. Would the Govt back down when they realised their mis-doings? NO WAY! Fight the people who have to administer Superannuation ( 401k's ) to the bitter end. It got so bad that the opposition minister for Superannuation requested that the legislation br got rid of in his attempted suicide note!! The only way the Govt can get out of this is to amend the legislation eventually out of existence. While I am no fan of Central Bankers, I must admit I am steadily drifting to their point of view that you do not allow ANY politicians to develop any type of financial legislation. I never thought I would have thought that 5 years ago! But do now! The sad fact is that these Members of Parliament are NOT QUALIFIED to vote on this legislation. A sobering thought. Am steadily drifting away from believing in a Democracy. A Theocracy has some merit I believe.

Steve...

Yes Puetz, you can trust me. Even if I DID return after my speech! ( But as myself, not as Karlito,GloomGus, et al ) . Now then, gimme a toke off'n that pipe, I'm feeling especially gregarious tonight. What's that I hear? The Byrds singing "Come on people now" in the background? OK, the markets are highly exciting right now whichever side of the fence you be on, and Monday's open is mere hours away, so let the analysis begin!!

LGB and Puetz: I will take credit for this peace plan. It was my way of trying to get everyone to talk about GOLD. Thank you both.

I had a client offer me, durring the 80's recession, two residential lots in another city in exchange for my professional services invoice. He said he felt like a farmer in the 1800's. "I will trade you my 2 cows for your 4 pigs!"

You are right everything goes back to the Barter System.

Japan up 3.31%: 15581.42 +498.90
Australian market floats TELSTRA today. Govt's privatised Phone co.
Should be an up day today here.

US investors to keep wary eye on int'l stocks, oil

By Ellen Freilich

NEW YORK, Nov 16 ( Reuters ) - Uncertainties ranging from a rumored Japanese banking system bailout to
vulnerable emerging market debt to Mideast tension and U.S. corporate profits could all ripple through U.S.
financial markets this week, analysts said.

``There's this anxiety that feeds into the U.S. markets from other parts of the world,'' said William Cheney, chief
economist for John Hancock Funds, a Boston, Mass.-based mutual fund company. ``People are much more
focused on risk.''

One unknown that the financial markets must contend with is the tension between Iraq and the United States. On
Sunday, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz said in an interview that Baghdad would let U.S. arms monitors
into Iraq if the five permanent Security Council members each had equal representation on U.N. inspection teams.

Profound Japanese stock market losses have made the U.S. Treasury market subject to fears of Japanese
repatriation of assets, analysts said. Some players expect Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei 225 index to slump to levels
not seen in five years amid alarm over Japan's financial system and its weak economy.

The Nikkei briefly fell through the 15,000 level last week on disappointment with Japan's fiscal stimulus package
before closing at 15,082.52, the lowest point since July 5, 1995. The Nikkei has fallen 22 percent since the start of
the year.

Meanwhile, rumors that a plan was afoot for Japan to feed eight trillion yen, or $64.0 billion, into a bailout of its
banks rippled through the financial markets on Friday.

``If the Nikkei index can pull back up, that might relieve some of the short-term banking problems we're hearing
about,'' said Dan Ascani, president and director of research at Global Market Strategists Inc.

``But if it keeps declining, Japanese banks might not be able to meet reserve requirements and they might have to
sell foreign assets. That could put pressure on U.S. Treasuries where Japan has heavy investments.''

``Japan is the place in Asia to focus on,'' said Cheney. ``The problems of their financial institutions are so deep ...
there is a lot of scope for bad news to come out of Japan.''

Meanwhile, though, U.S. Treasuries have attracted safe haven buying and could see more of that if emerging
market debt continues to struggle, analysts said.

Pressure on the currencies and banking systems of South Korea, Brazil and Russia widened the spread between
U.S. Treasuries and emerging market debt last week so emerging market debt looks cheaper. But analysts said
investors still worry that even cheaper prices lie ahead.

But while worries abound, some analysts maintain that U.S. investors have reasons to believe they stand on solid
ground.

U.S. economists mostly believe that the Federal Reserve is not likely to raise interest rates this year.

Also, more money -- both retirement and non-retirement funds -- is entering the U.S. stock market than is exiting
it.

``As long as we continue to see money go in through our money flow indicator, we like that,'' said Jeff Rubin,
analyst at Birinyi Associates. ``It's a big difference between what someone says and what they actually do with
their money.''

Lee Youngdahl, bond market analyst at Aubrey G. Lanston & Co, said the fear that Japanese investors would
have to sell U.S. assets to repatriate funds might be overblown.

Youngdahl said the institutions holding Treasuries have matched them up against long-term liabilities. U.S. Treasury
yields are so much higher than Japanese yields that ``it does not make sense for these institutions to sell them,'' he
said.

Christine Callies, chief investment strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston, said the amount of liquidity available in
the U.S. financial system is so great that it will tend to inhibit selling squalls.

``We think investors have leaped to the conclusion that all currency crises and all international turbulence creates
bear markets, and they don't necessarily do that,'' she said.

Callies said if the domestic economy were weak, almost anything would topple profits or the stock market.

``But in the U.S., the resources available to maintain domestic consumption are so great that it would take
enormous deterioration, starting internally, starting with a change in Fed policy, to generate the imbalances that
cause consumers and businesses to retrench -- and that is not happening.''

From a technical standpoint, analysts saw 119-14 up to 122-04 as an area of congestion for bond futures.
Whether December bonds penetrate the 119-02 high depends on the stock market's performance, they said.
Dollar/yen was likely to undergo a shallow correction if it matched its May high of 127.46 yen and crude oil
needed to break through psychological resistance at $21 a barrel to move higher, they said.

Japan on a run all by itself in Asia 500+

LGB: Actually, with the NewPhysics, there is some question about whether the Second Law of Thermodyamics is still valid ( in some situations ) . I am not up on this, but I think the area where the questions arise lie in the border between coherence and turbulence. Like what happens to a Tsunami just before it hits the beach?
That's where I think we are with the US markets right now! Hope you are right, and I am wrong, too. A war with Saddam Hussein alone would do it, don't you think? Don't the 3.5 tons of VX nerve gas worry you a bit?

ID# 224156, you wouldn't mind telling us your true identity would you? Enquiring minds wanna know....

"real" Puetz, what do you see happening tomorrow? By week's end?

Tolerant1 ( 19:29 ) Yes, John K and John Kutyn are one and the same. I emailed him to ask, and he confirmed it. BTW, his posts were truly excellent. Anyone who hasn't read them should make the effort.

A bag of Anthrax spores the size of a sugar bag could wipe out half of Washington. Cohen revving up the USA population to allow right to blow the **** out of the Iraqi's. http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971116/news/stories/iraq_41.html

Telstra has floated at $2.60 ( a premium of 65c per share ) . Not surprising that it was over-subscribed 4 to 1.
6.5 million shares have been traded in the past minute.

Yes I agree. Much as I needle G & D folks, Saddam is a wild card that could cause huge problems worldwide. Major disruptions in oil supplies, fractionalizing of Arab neighbors, driving a wedge amongst the original alliance countries that supported Desert Storm, renewed tension re Israel and their neighbors, Russia and China's support of IRAQ due to financial interests there leading to renenwed tensions between U.S. and those huge holders of weapons de mass destruction, and of course, Saddam's own plans for use of those chemical agents. I understand his version of that gas is binary and 10X more powerful than the "mixed" type.

THIS is a situation worthy of worry.

Steve-Perth: Saw your 20:17. Sadly, you are right about US foreign policy in Iraq. The orders someone must have given the CIA were really screwed up weren't they? Members of the Arab world must have picked up on how we treat the anti-Saddam resistance.
I think one should clarify one thing though. We can't necessarily blame the CIA for the fiasco. They were given orders. It's a shame they didn't do what they do in the movies -- have transmission problems and do what's right anyway.
Steve-Perth: There is a ground swell beginning in this country to bring honesty back to our government. Too bad it is happening too slowly to avert some of the problems in the Middle East.

Bill: Thanks.

JTF
Article you wanted.
http://www.nwlink.com/~magicelf/stock1~1.htm
Will have a look at page 12 for you.

LGB
If these discussions we have,
Were held in a bar, rather than cyberspace.
Your vocal assertations would have been stiffled,
Long ago, by the dude in the corner, with the hangover.
The shouting and heckling, - your diatribe,
Would have caused him to react - quickly.
So that the bar-room could return to peaceful discussion.

Have a look back at this site, while you were away.
The tempo was distinctly improved.
Not so now.

Tolerant1: Why would juniors do well? Bre-x has dried up capital and membership in the absolute worst market sector hasn't helped. Hedge funds and speculators are making vast profits shorting gold shares as well as shorting bullion. Declining gold prices make earnings unattractive even if the company can turn a profit, which most can't. Unhedged gold mining companies, if there are any left, will lead the way up, if gold ever rallies. But as Don Meredith once said to Howard Cosell, on Monday night football, "Howard, If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas". Turn those coins into tree ornaments but invest in energy service stocks. Haliburton ( HAL ) was up 3 bucks Friday. They pay a dividend to boot.

Brady bonds are Latin American debt, guaranteed by the US government.
How can you lose??

Tally Ho

PS- there was another Ray posting here today, it was not me, I always give my real address, I have nothin to hide.

the war paint had been distributed,
the hand is stayed.......

the greatest times of change for all time are upon us
and there are those who would quibble over dribble for
one-upmanship. all to no gain, for there were only losers.

chickens may not have lips, but the scales-of-life will be
measured and righted in a quite un-ceremonious fashion.

loose-lips sink ships.......and chaos creates

cherokee!; ) hungry-for-gold--- ( options ) feb330 for 190!

Nikkei up 1000 points = 6.6% !!!

Can't believe it, Japan up close to 1,000 point +6.5%, all other markets up. Jeez, I may even make some money on my Asia investment

Sorry, it was a long day. Gnite

Japan is up 1000 points. I wonder who the buyers are in this environment and I wonder where they are getting the funds?

So, I see Japan solved all it's problems. What's wrong with this picture.

Are U.S. Treasuries trading anywhere at this hour? Can we get a price?

November 16, 1997
Japan 10th largest bank goes out of business

TOKYO ( Reuters ) - Japan's 10th largest bank Hokkaido Takushoku Bank announced Monday it was going out of business because of a bad loans crisis in a new blow to Japan's troubled financial system.

The news immediately sent the dollar higher against the yen but was cheered by the Tokyo stock market as a sign that Japanese authorities were taking action to solve the nation's economic woes.

The dollar rose to above 126 yen in early trade on concerns over the Japanese financial system, but the key 225-share Nikkei average jumped nearly three percent on relief that some news has finally come out on the troubled financial institutions.

In a virtual declaration of bankruptcy, Hokkaido Takushoku said it was handing over its regional operations in its home base on the northernmost main island of Hokkaido to North Pacific Bank, a Hokkaido-based mid-size regional bank. The bank was seeking a buyer for its Tokyo area operations.

Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka told a hurriedly arranged news conference that the Bank of Japan would provide the necessary funds to Hokkaido Takushoku Bank to help it give depositors their money back.

The funds are expected to come in the form of the Bank of Japan's special unsecured loans, where the recipient bank does not have to put up collateral.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BANKING-JAPAN.html

Nick ( @Aussie ) : You know how to make a guy feel good! Majic elf I assume is pretty good at what he/she does, and he sold his sp500 puts Friday morning. I took longer, but did the same! I will watch his site from now on!
With regard to the Kondratiev wave -- in my opinion, it is inescapable, as it is part of human nature not to learn from the mistakes of our parents and gradparents. I think families such as the Roths, and perhaps the Rockefellers are rare in keeping the long-term perspective.
All that is needed now is the trigger. The ElNino/SE Asia crash could do it. Saddam Hussein could do it. Then, once a critical point in the market is reached, if the cash cushion ( reserve ) is not there, we will fall the rest of the way. We could squeak by this year with only a correction in the US. Maybe the baby boomers will save us, but then the problem that creates the risk of deflation would still be there to fester and get worse -- to 1999-2000 or later. Sooner or later the Kondratiev wave will get us -- until we all learn to think long-term like the Rothschilds, and prepare for a rainy day during the good times. I am not advocating emulating other characteristics of the Rothschilds -- just their ability to pass knowledge from generation to generation. Think what the world would be like if we could do this one thing! If we can change this one thing about our behavior, then perhaps we can hold our economic system together long enough to go to the stars.

The Japanese government thinks that intervening in the market ( it appears very heavily at this time ) is cheaper than bailing the banks out later. It the long ( or rather short ) run neither will work. We are not talking just about a billion here or a billion there, it's more like a trillion here and a trillion there. Soon we'll be talking about some real money.
Patience my friends, patience. All in good time.

tolerant1 and Donald
Sometimes they are so transparent. Yes, wonder who is buying with both hands. Well, we saw it in Hong Kong a week or so ago and they made that great rally ... just before heading down bigtime. SOOooooo now they think everyone is going to follow their lead into Japan. Amazing, but these games have been going on so long they even believe them. That's the problem when you start messing with free markets, free press, and freedom. You start believing your own PR.
Well, I suspect the combo of Rubin, Al, ... and their cronies are having a great time pretending this evening. Not to matter because nothing has changed except they just created a ton more paper to be sold off tomorrow and the next day and the ... .

Thank you -10c ( @north ) for the lead to this site excellent!!!
It Could be called GOLD ECONOMICS 101
A must read by all !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Date: Sat Nov 15 1997 20:29
-10 c ( @north ) ID#204295:
supply-side economics
inflation, deflation, Gold as a Constant,
http://www.polyconomics.com/univ.htm
weekend school in supply-side economics

June 20, 1997

Supply-Side Economics Summer School Lesson #2

Memo To: Students of Supply-Side University
From: Jude Wanniski
Re: Who Should Hold the Gold?

Very few opponents of "a gold standard" know what it is or how it works or how many different ways there are to link paper money to gold. The question arises again and again: "How can we be on a gold standard when there is so little gold and so much money needed to finance this enormous world economy?" The answer is that it is the function of the central bank only to maintain the "standard," the "unit of account," and the rest of the world will create its own money around that standard. I first learned this from Karl Marx, who was a great fan of David Ricardo and the gold standard. Marx pointed out that in any village of Europe, everything for sale was quoted in terms of the gold price, even though
there was not an ounce of gold within many miles of the village. Gold provided a common understanding of the value of all things, enabling people to reckon how many chickens they would have to bring to market to sell in order to exchange for so many gallons of milk or sticks of lumber.

The chief function of money is as an accounting unit. If the Eurocrats understood
that, they would go back to the drawing boards and build a monetary system from that assumption. This would require them to first fix the Eurocurrency to something the markets would understand as being a reliable unit of account. What? The answer is the dollar, the worlds key currency, except that the dollar still wobbles around relative to the gold price. The Euro would be possible, but only if the dollar is first fixed in value to gold. Then, the European nations in the Eurocurrency system would have a credible unit of account as their anchor. 

...The chief function of money is as an accounting unit. If the Eurocrats understood
that, they would go back to the drawing boards and build a monetary system from that assumption. This would require them to first fix the Eurocurrency to something the markets would understand as being a reliable unit of account. What? The answer is the dollar, the worlds key currency, except that the dollar still wobbles around relative to the gold price. The Euro would be possible, but only if the dollar is first fixed in value to gold. Then, the European nations in the Eurocurrency system would have a credible unit of account as their anchor.

NOTE: ONLY IF THE DOLLAR IS FIXED TO GOLD!

"To broadly answer Feeleys question about who should hold the gold, Id like to wrap up this session by suggesting you think about the proposition that it almost does not matter. That is because there is so little gold in the world. If the Washington monument were made of gold, the entire 120,000 metric tons of gold mined over the last several thousand years would only be enough to build the base of the monument, about a third of the way up. When Alan Greenspan was asked last year why gold is so much more important than any other commodity, he said it was because the stock of gold is so large relative to its flow. By that, he meant the world inventory of gold, at 120,000 metric tons, is enormous relative to its annual "consumption," as new industrial gold use, jewelry and monetary reserves, about 3,000 metric tons. The world reserves, or stock of wheat, on the other hand, are only a fraction of the annual consumption, or "flow." The market is therefore not much concerned about where the gold is held. It is keenly interested in the economic
philosophies of the governments and central banks who are managing their currencies with respect to the gold stock."

Insert the word OIL for wheat above and think about it a minute and you will understand. Gold no flow reserve commodity vs. Oil or Wheat a max flow no reserve depleteing commodity.

If Kitconites read and study this information and tie it together with Anothers Thoughts and others at this site, they will begin to form a complete and accurate historical and current picture of the relationship of Gold/ Oil/ Currencies/ Central Banks/ Euro/ Bonds/ Inflation/ Deflation Etc. Etc.

A must read for all !!!!!
http://www.polyconomics.com/searchbase/sumles2.html

On the other hand, what if the Japanese decide to dump US stocks and treasuries to BUY Japanese securities?

I've taken your advice and have re-read my posts going back over the last few weeks. I got a queasy feeling in the pit of my stomach as I read, transfixed, realizing that I really am an egotistical, ranting, anal-retentive loose cannon who cannot control himself. I promise to go back on my medication and to wander away, forlornly, never to return. I'm truly sorry and apologize to all of you. Farewell forever.

6pak your post says it all. A lot of damage has already been done. More institutions will follow the only direction is down. Those that don't see it will be buried.

Date: Sun Nov 16 1997 20:51
6pak ( Japan @ Funds available from Bank of Japan= special secured loans ) ID#335190:

Cherokee: Why is it that individuals who see the future always speak in riddles? Is it a kind of divine punishment for the rest of us who cant?

I love it,Gusto Oro ( logustoo@aol.com ) ID#377235. It would only be gypsy justice in this topsy turvy derivative driven murky market.

LGB: Hang in there buddy!! Let's look to the future by learning from the past. Anybody that's been in this game for a while knows that the only way to win is by staying in the game. We need your comments even though they might not please everbody ( including yoursellf in hind sight ) . Good investing and best regards.

All: Do you think the Japanese have decided to emulate the plunge protection team methods -- or have they been doing it longer -- since around 1990 perhaps?

Siki Niki jumps 1000 points?
The day after the DOW crash....that INCREDIBLE surge during that half hour? Hmmmmmm, seems to me SuperCB, cape and all. Stronger than steel, more powerful than a locomotive, and able to re-inflate crashing stockmarkets with a single keystroke.
Now that the goverments are beginning to monetize debt by throwing it into a raging fire, tell me, is this inflationary or deflationary?

Anything to prolong the inevitable.

Isn't it true that it is legal for the Japanese government to intervene directly in the market by buying securities??

The DRUDGE REPORT has received information that the WASHINGTON
POST is preparing to report in Monday editions: "The
investigation of Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt's handling of
an Indian casino license appears likely to result in the
appointment of an independent counsel because of difficulties in
establishing the truthfulness of his sworn statements to
Congress."

The paper, which quotes senior Justice Department officials,
fronts the Babbitt story...

Reporters Bob Suro and George Lardner Jr explain that any
independent counsel investigation into Babbitt's role in the
casino affair would likely cover actions by White House staff
and members of DNC. "Previous testimony has indicated that
several top Democrats were interested in the outcome of the
casino issue, including President Clinton, adviser Bruce
Lindsey, then-deputy chief of staff Harold Ickes and DNC
chairman Donald L. Fowler," says the paper...

Janet Reno has requested four independent counsels in cases
involving top Clinton administration officials... Sun Nov 16
1997 15:59:21 PT

Haystack - thank you so much for your support. It's nice to know at least one person out there cares. But the dye has been cast into the water. Take comfort in knowing that you have put a spring into my departing step.

As I've said before I'm not an economist, but it seems to me that all the money that pours into mutual funds and insurance companies ( money that always being added to the pot ) plus the cash that people have when they sell holdings ( every transaction somebody gets money out of it ) means theres lots of money to bid stocks up if investors think that the price will rise.

Japan's problems are far from over, but the government
at least has a plan to deal with some of the ailing bank system problems. I am not surprised that Tokyo is up, the market was way oversold and due for a bounce.

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971116/politics/stories/japan_1.html

LGB: I respect everyones opinion here but I don't think everyones advise
is reasonable. This is a tough business ( guessing what's going to happen in the short term ) and it's easy to become emotional and make mistakes if we don't consider all the facts available. One way to assure this is to encourage debate and dissent from the opinion that's popular. Don't give up sharing your insights even if they turn out to be incorrect. IMO it's just as important to have your views ( and mine as well as every oneelse that posts here ) critiqued. So keep posting but be ready for some flak.

steady:
Do you really think that honesty can be expected of the Japanese goverment, after all that has been exposed? Use your senses....with their market in a kamakzi dive, they have nothing to lose by doing it, and all to gain. There are many simple ways to do it, namely thru representatives.

CMax: They ( BOJ ) virtually announced that they would do it. The key question for the rest of the world is what is the source of funding. There are three possibilities: 1. Printing 2. Sale of T-Bonds 3. Postal Savings Plan. We should have the answer soon. Can anyone think of another funding source?

Sunday November 16, 5:43 pm Eastern Time

TOKYO : Confusion and Laughter on Trading Floor

By Ho Lim

TOKYO, Nov 17 ( Reuters ) - Spectacular gains for the NIKKEI 225 index were overshadowed by reports that water at the exchange had been spiked with an halucinogen. Five people had been reported to be rushed to hospital with symptoms similar to ingestion of LSD. Upon opening of exchange giggling was reported as the NIKKEI 225 was pushed higher. On reaching 15900 delerious laughter engulfed the exchange as stocks were pushed higher and higher. Upon reaching 16050 teams of medics rushed to the aid of people who were by know rolling around on the floor of the exchange in hysterical laughter. At approx. 11.55am a man wearing a dinner suit
and carrying an umbrella emerged with a cigar hanging from his mouth and rallied his team around him. They then bid farewell leaving a cloud of purple smoke which allowed them a safe escape.

MORE TO FOLLOW.

Karlito , could you please explain to us all what the plan is???
The tenth biggest Japanese bank goes bankrupt this Monday and the market surges?? My explanation is that the plan is to intervene in the market and postpone the inevitable.

Guys,
look at the id, last two post about "I am leaving again" are not from LGB, somebody is pulling your leg again. This site is getting really wierd and there is no reason for that!!!

ANOTHER
Interesting, your post at 10:20.

The BIS will not allow the distribution of all gold to settle
claims. The mines of the world will be forced to sell to the
BIS at the locked existing commodity price of gold. This
will happen over many, many years as no other official
market outside the BIS will exist. 

Correct me if I am wrong, but you are implying that soon,
the respective goverments will be forced to mandate that
all mines will be obliged to sell 100% of their production
to the BIS at a fixed price, for years to come? This
obviously makes sense if the mine has to cover his
outstanding gold loans, but you are implying the creation of
an absolute theft ( as has happened before many times in
history ) of peoples gold, which will create an automatic
black market.

I watched this happen in Venezuela with the gold miners
during the during the draconian exchange control measures.
The miners were obliged to sell their production to the
Central Bank, at less than half of what they could sell it for
on the street. Hence offically, gold production during this
time had an extreme slump. But in reality, everybody
worked mined more the ever, and just sold it on the black
market, where their black market bolivars bought twice as
many goods as before ( and after ) the exchange controls.
Correlating this to your scenario, ( and adding my
extrapolation ) , you are indicating the creation of an
international gold black market. I think this will be very
hard to control, as life will always find a way, so do the
markets in response to goverment restrictions. If the
mines must sell at a much lower fixed rate to the BIS ( or
CBs for that matter ) , they will simply close down.........or
lie ( read self protect ) .........about their production. But on
a more personal level, It seems that the goverments must
( in their point of view ) confiscate ( rob you of ) your gold, in
order to control the general population. This will result in
distorted crime sentences for illegal gold dealers, making
gold traffiking and drug traffiking similar offenses.
Hmmmmmm

Next you said: Understand, they only lend their good
name on paper, not the gold itself. The gold that is put on
the market in these deals belongs to someone else! The
question is not Are the CBs worried for the return of
gold? but, Has our paper been lent to the wrong
people?.

So you are saying that all the outstanding gold loans that
exist from the CBs, never really left the CBs vault, and
that a paper note of possession was issued in their place? I
had always understood that the object of the borrowers of
gold ( principaly mines ) was to obtain the physical to be
resold on the spot market, then to be replaced by the mine
at a later date. So you are saying that even the spot market
is a paper market. Hmmmmm
ADAMs post about the goverments reposssion of mines
in their default to gold loans ties in interestingly with this
gold loan paper chase.

Next:  Think that I a fool, because I trade gold for
thousands US an oz.? You will think much on this in the
future.

I still see no benefit of intenionally paying 3 or more times
for something that is readily available.

Next: ....... no country can own its gold as the BIS has ties
to all of it. .............The BIS, instead of taking it outright,
places it where its needed!

Can you explain this. Control and ownership can be
sometimes constued as being one in the same, but the BIS
definitely does not have absolute control over the worlds
gold.


Youre starting to reach into the next great phase of the
gold manipulation game, and your perspective is very
interesting.
Thanks.
Cmax

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971112/ibca_s_ozeki_says_se_1.html

they could always loan gold and sell short seems to be a pretty sure bet for anybody big enough to play....then they wouldn't have to dump treasuries but use them as collateral.

With the yen falling wrt the dollar, one possibility is that BOJ may have sold some T-bills. "Your pain is our pain."

I am far from saying that markets and overall financial system in Asia are in better shape than last week. However, don't expect markets keep diving another 5000 points. There is limit how low they will go. I would much more watch US markets. Watch that Asia money go back home to repair their own house instead of ours. BTW, some little tiny small amount of money going to Asia is mine. Remember that "buy low, sell high?" It eventually will ;- )
peci

Karlito: Your simple explanation of Tokyo rise makes sense from a stock traders perspective. If your're right we should see a market close lower and then test the 15000 level again ( shortly or not so shortly ) but it will be tested.

The Japanese government will boost the market, burn the shorts, improve the capital ratios of the healthier banks and force closure and consolidation of the sickest banks.... Its not all that disimilar from what the FDIC did with the S&L mess in the late 80s early 90s.

The more interesting question is the one raised by Donald, where will the cash come from. If its a short term intervention that produces a big enough boost, they can reverse their long position quickly and take a profit. If the boost in the market doesnt last then they will have problems... Its an interesting gamble, from the looks of it so far, I'd say its working.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971114/ibca_says_japan_shou_1.html

Could someone post the sight for gold and silver options, having problems with my bookmarks. Thanks in advance!

Bonds at http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/Bonds/

kiwi, my recollection is that BOJ has little in the way of gold reserves, don't know the exact number.

panda, thanks for the bond site. I don't think it has been updated, however. didn't the 30 year close at 6.125%?

The death knell has just been executed. The carnage resulting from this will make 1929 look like a bubble bath.

Japan up 944, Hong Kong up 514

The market rise can be explained most simply by the fact that as Karlito commented before that the market was oversold therefore we would expect a considerable bounce. 6.5%is not unusual given this scenario. If it's a "technical Bounce" then the market will continue lower as I suggested before.

hAYSTACK: The Nikkei will test 15000 if the Japanese government does nothing more than intervene. If they can give the appearance of even modest efforts to shore up the bank system and close down a bank or two, they may be able to build some confidence behind their actions and keep the Nikkei up long enough, high enough to make a difference with the rest of the banks that are borderline insolvent.

Hmmm. I think Karlito may be right. The massive injection of liquidity may be an act of desperation on the part of BOJ. If the bluff gets called, and the shorts attack again, BOJ is toast.

Globex up 690

Karlito: The Government may be intervening but this intervention is not necessary IMO to explain the bounce in the market. Normal market forces are enough in and of themselves to result in a bounce in the market especially after the NA markets closed up strongly on Friday. Isn't the bank trouble "old"news already?

Haystack.... I agree with you.....As I said in one of my earlier posts, the Japanese market was oversold and due for a bounce.... I just think that the government has given it an extra shove to give themselves and the rest of the banking system in Japan more breathing room to clean up the balance sheet problems of the banks that are in trouble.

Q: What about metals?
A: ( Taken partially out of context ) Metals for losers ... gold bugs masochists ... Dollar is extremely strong currency ... Mighty Dollar ...Anchor... dollar backed by worlds strongest economy... the american worker ... other patriotic junk ... Au &Ag complete unadultered nightmare ( since 1980? ) 

The caller pressed his case. Mr Brinker said he was a comedian.

A good bounce provides an opportunity for short term traders to turn a quick profit and add to their selling sellers who are scared of further loses as the market turns down ( they're reminded of how they felt when the market was recently at close to 15000 ) . This pushes the market down and what few bulls are left step to the side and wait to see what happens at 15000. If no strong buying comes in the market will go lower until the same forces that causes the last bounce take over and the cycle will continue. The question IMO is not whether this will happen but when. This is the normal process from what I've seen in stock markets.

Japanese Bonds Fall on News Major Bank to Be Shut Down

Japanese bonds fell on news of the failure of Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Ltd., as it triggered
concern the government may sell more bonds to raise money to finance bank bailouts. The
benchmark No. 182 government bond, maturing in September 2005, fell 134 yen per 50,000 yen
in face value. Its yield rose 4.0 basis points to 1.675 percent. Bond futures for December delivery
fell 0.54 from Friday's Tokyo's close to 129.82. Hokkaido Takushoku announced in September
that it would delay a proposed merger with smaller rival Hokkaido Bank Ltd. Merger talks stalled
over Hokkaido Bank's reluctance to take on 937 billion yen ( $7.5 billion ) of bad loans Hokkaido
Takushoku said it had as of March 31, 1997. The benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Index rose
187.91 points, or 1.25 percent, to 15270.43.

Japan's Ruling Party Eyes Buying Banks' Preferred Stock

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party is considering using money from government-controlled
pension programs and the postal savings system to buy Japanese banks' preferred stock in an move
to bolster their dwindling capital reserves, an LDP official said. The proposal could be part of an
LDP economic package proposal -- the third such plan this -- to be unveiled around December 10.
The proposed purchases would come from a pool of about 8 trillion yen ( $64 billion ) under the
government's control.

13: Brinker also said on NBR in Mid October that the Dow wouldn't fall below the mid 7000's, that there was no bear in sight, and that it was going to be a long, painful winter for precious metals buffs.

Donald: Is your posting correct about 1.675% bond yields for bonds maturing 2005. Doesn't soound like much of a panic to me if thats what the bonds have sold off to. I'd think they have junk bonds rates if things were as bad as what some think?

Donald, any idea if those government controlled funds consist of US debt paper?

Haystack: You think if we ask Karlito very nicely he'd put in a good word for gold too?

Haystack: You think if we as Karlito very nicely he'd put in a good word for gold too?

U.S. Federal Budget = $1.5 trillion. U.S. Debt = $6 trillion. Debt service = $283 Billion. Interest rate on debt = 4.7%. Unfunded SS = ?.

O.K., the above numbers show how lidicrous is the notion of repaying the principle on the debt. Everyone knows this including Greenspan but what difference does it make as long as we can keep rolling it over. The single biggest threat to the U.S. economy is a spike in inflation and/or interest rates. A rise to 7% interest rates would make the debt financing number go to $420 billion or 28% of current federal budget spending as
opposed to 18% today.

This would leave the government with three options. Cut spending ( last resort ) , raise taxes ( second option ) , or throw it on top of the debt heap ( most likely ) . We are in a debt spiral that is the cause of 95% of all bankruptcies. WHEN YOU CANNOT SERVICE THE INTEREST ON YOUR DEBT, THE END IS NEAR!

This leaves Greenspan with few options. He must keep the economy productive and liquid of course. Most importantly he must worry about an overheating economy which would be inflationary ( read higher interest rates ) and SUPLY SHOCK INFLATION ( read attack Saddam ) . Finally, he must craft a monetary way out of the debt spiral as the congress/president do not have the backbone to cut spending or raise taxes. I believe these three goals accurately describe 95% of Greenspans activities. The last two are what drives him to manipulate our precious gold.

Whether it is a master plan to herd all the money into place for a global currency restructuring or the more benign assurance of the lack of inflation, the central banks are absolutely acting in concert in a public relations manipulation of the public perception of gold.

I like that. The central banks are absolutely acting in concert in a public relations manipulation of the public perception of gold.

I myself doubt that all this effort would go into such a grand plan just for purposes of investor inflation fear abatement. Especially when you consider the political implications for Australia ( loss of mining profits and jobs ) and Germany ( historical fear of runaway paper inflation ) .

I also find it awkward that the central banks would be talking about dumping hard assets in favor of equity investments. How odd that the central banks would try to turn a few bucks on the open markets, thereby competing with private citizens. Raise your hand if you are willing to pay more taxes so your government can play the market! There is also an unreality to democratic governments investing on the open market and
owning private corporations.

No, there is a political risk to all these central bank gold sale announcements so there must be an unkown high risk for not doing so.

This is your assignment, find out what it is.

Steve

Gusto: Not sure exactly about what you meant but think you were hoping that Karlito would put in a good word for gold. I like you would like to hear better news that what I've heard recently about the short term prospects for gold. I think that the long term prospects might be good but I sure don't know when things will turn around if all countries eventually delink gold and currency. We all need to be looking for sound investments whereever they are including precious metals but certainly not restricted to them.

Hi Celine: No, I don't know.

Hi Haystack: Japanese bonds had been down to historic lows on yields. But isn't that rate rise a problem for the "carry trade"? They were using the spread to finance U.S. Treasuries and this increases the cost, reduces the profits, however small.

I am new to this site, so I hope the question I am asking hasn't been
hashed,and rehashed. I have been out of the markets now for about
a year, waiting for the crash. Previous to that I was into stocks, and
mutual funds, and made quite a bit of money, the past 4-5 years.
Lately I'm starting to question my judgement, as it seems there is nothing
that's going to knock this bull down. I'm just wondering, how a market
can crash when there is billions of dollars in mutual funds, and billions
more being poured in every year by the baby boomers. These fund
managers just can't sit on this money, or they would be out of a job.
So back into the market they go bidding up stocks higher and higher.
I am no expert in this field, and realize that most posters on this site
have forgotten more about the markets than I'll ever know.
As for most stock on the markets being overvalued, well what is value
and what does it mean anymore.
Does the man in the desert, dying of thirst , and the man sitting beside
a cool running stream put the same value on a glass of water?
I guess what I'm trying to ask is how can the market crash with all this
money in there, and the mutual fund co people telling their clients that
everything is ok. Just look at the last little blip of a few weeks ago, very
few people decided that it was time to redeem their funds and exit.
Anyway I would appreciate any feedback on this subject. THANKS.

themissinglink: No major nation's currency will be allowed to fail. The IMF will work with central banks and governments to assure liquidity, stability and orderly markets. Japan and Hong Kong are leading paper higher. European markets will continue the trend and the U.S. markets will soar tomorrow. Buy some stocks and make some money. Pay no attention to people flying off buildings clutching stocks.

May have been posted earlier.
11/16/97 -- 3:09 PM

Plummeting gold prices claim outback mine

DARWIN, Australia ( AP ) - Plummeting prices on world gold markets have claimed a victim in Australia's outback. U.S. mining and exploration company Pegasus Gold Inc. has announced the closure of its Mount Todd mine and losses of nearly $433 million. http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100n.htm

Hi Randy: Welcome. We did discuss that topic yesterday afternoon. There are differing opinions here about that. I suggest you use the search feature and read some posts between Karlito and myself yesterday.

What is a 1000 point rise in the Japanese market worth? Rough estimate for the money needed to accomplish this?

Hong Kong +500
Tokyo +1000
They are having a heck of a day. Dow should be up a few hundred points tomorrow.

64 - 43...DOH!!!!

Grumble. Usually, Kyodo news is pretty good at updating their stats, but they seem to be stuck at 11:00 AM when the Nikkei was up to 16,027.37. Everything else is 12:30 PM old.

http://home.kyodo.co.jp/

I don't know of any sights for gold calls but here is an accurate sight for gold PUTS ;- ) know what I mean?? ;- ) )

http://router.minot.com/~bohl/


away...to w/w




you are on fire Donald...

Quigly to earthlings. Quigly to earthlings.Do you read me?

It seems to be agreed that both the SP 500 and gold are going down. It is also agreed that deflation is our fate and not deflation.

Kitco seems to be in agreement with the market "straights."

Well said, Randy. The things that you mentioned in your comments have to be taken into consideration when trying to figure out what's going to happen. The problem is that there are alot of unknowns which makes the short term guessing game so treacherous. Long term the market has gone up whereas many individual stocks have fallen by the way side. I guess that's whyin the long term mutual fund investing may pay off better than what we do here, but then they miss out on all the fun.

Sorry about the double post--you can tell what kind of gum I chew. To Randy: If one believes in the new paradigm and that the market is going on to 20,000 or so in the next 20 years with only minor bumps along the way, then you should be fully in right now so you can retire rich. If, however, you suffer anxiety over the fact that the bull market is getting very old compared to other bull markets, that there is increasing volitility ( far, far more daily 1%-2% swings this year than is the norm ) , that Japan's basket case economy may soon crack and cause a dumping of US assets by Japan out of shear necessity, that the meltdown of markets in Asia and Latin America may negatively affect our own exports and slow our economy, that Saddam might do the unthinkable and lob a scud missle armed with who-knows-what at Rome or some other high profile target such as an oil field well within his range, that Y2K problem is a problem, that the historically high PE ratios and valuations of the total Market cap vs. GNP suggest hell to pay, and that the Green Bay Packers may also lose to the Chicago Bears this season, then you might hesitate to maintain a fully invested portfolio. I don't see anything wrong with having some stocks. I do believe the Dow will fall a good 2000 points though.

What is this? Where am I? huh. um ah maybe bad acid. huh? are we on the net yet?..what? ok. no,I don't really know-count on it! Can't think. yes you are right.

Celine -- I just checked EBN and the long bond was at 6.138%. EBN can be erratic sometimes.

Sorry about the delay. Doing what us gold bugs do best, watching a doom and gloom movie, "Medusas something or other". Story about a loose nuke over Washington.

Gold futures prices can be found at the "gold eagle" site. I'd like to know where to find spot prices ( hi, lo, close ) .

What the hell are you talking about? You are weird so why don't you take your crap to another site.

Anyone know the spot price of Gold?
Thanks

test test test testing testing 1-2-3. are we posting or what? don't think so jack but ckeck back. letters hard to see-they move. why? scary things happen to them. huh ah alright then do it. yes go there.where does this go? then it will be ok

Avid chatter re Japan:
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The market is at a point where a little inflation is good and deflation is bad. Asia is deflation, US and UK is a bit inflation ( employment ) who will win out? Why would japan sell US TB when in deflation scenario, US TB will outperform and will pull jap banks portfolio up. Gold is in the dumps because of deflation there. Watch metal, forestry charts decline with no end yet. Central banks sell gold because it is nonperforming asset while US TB is probably the best one for the future. Note jap banks sold SNE and badly valued shares, they don't sell good value shares yet.

Japanese insurance compnaies and banks will need to make redemtions..That would be the reason for selling.

If the usd goes south then US TB goes up because in a slowdown, bonds yield goes down. USD goes south if in 98 growth slows. US/Yen should go up within a year. If USD goes south gold goes south. US is a prime engine for world growth, if it slows thus really zero inflation, gold tanks.

The Japanese are preety prud, and I really don't think they would allow their currency to be devalued..They still have a lot of housepower to throw at traders. Don'think Japan and the other Asian countires are on the same level. Japan is still # 2 and has the money to prove it.

I think there are a lot of behind the scenes talking between Rubin and Japanese Finance.

japanes are in the financial toilet....brave show of buying by government so far tonite...what a scam: it's like trying to adjust the temperature by fiddling with a thermometer!

Japan is deregulating, they are just the slowest people to make change around. But when they do watch out... This happenes with everything not just finance.

I think you will see a lot of stock market dumping.. The Japanese always wait for someone to make the first move.. That has just happened.. So stand back... The Japanese really need this, A complete flush out and then rebuild... They have just been letting the issues drag on and on and on...

No really The Japanese are financialy much more secure then Americans are They have little debt and a lot of money in the bank or even under their floor mats in the living room.. They have just stop buying..That simple...

i agree dgoto, but i'm afraid the rest of the worlds' economies are severely wounded

Rubin would like the jap to inflate their economy preferably by practically printing money and distribute to citizens to spur domestic demand. Jap authority is in huge denial stage ( you know the disease process ) still 8 years after the bubble bursted. The population is oldest on earth with expensive price, surrounded by mean devalued competitors. What can they do except pray for devaluation vs USD. They are only scared that devaluation would spark US/world protectionism leading to worst case, depression. They have got nowhere to go, cornered. Jap bond yield so low, poor risk/reward. They need a financial disaster to wake up and face the truth, corrupted bureaucrats to the bone ( did you read the opposition's stand? ) . Then they stand a chance. By the way they need an immigration policy badly. Oh and watch out for switzerland, it may go the way of japan. Too bad for the proud and arrogant.

Hey, somebody pushed the liquidity button in japan tonite.. Mooooo... Bombs in Iraq????

i think it was the panic button, not the liquidity button

The Japanese are deruglating just very slowly. I would bet Goldman Sachs and other majo brokerages are making a killing right now there. All of the Japanese brokers are in the dog house and Mer Lyn and others have a pretty good name there.

yes, the average citizenmay have money but the government is a fiscal disaster. it says alot about the ineptitude of a government that would RAISE taxes in the teeth of a depression!

Nikkei may have a bounce but the main trend is down. It may test the 1995 low.

America is the most over leveraged country on earth.. Japan is the greatest savers, the problem is Japanese won't spend until their govt. gets it's act togeter, and American can't stop spending,as long as they keep getting those credit cards offers in the mail....

they've stopped buying because they realize they're living in a fools' paradise. why buy now when you absolutely positively know it will cost less tomorrow. besides, we haven't seen the big layoffs that have been pent up for years -- that'll burst like a damn!

japanese don't even rate as svers compared with chinese. also, the so-called savings of average japanese household has ben wiped out by negative equity in homes. no wonder they're reluctant to spend! anf no wonder the banks have imploded.

You are totally wrong.The japanese money isn't in their home. it is under their floor mat and in the post saving..

There is no virtue in the extremes: jap and swiss save the most and so their currencies go up leading to non competitive stance. You spend a lot but don't produce then your currency go down while your bond yield go up. Currency speculators go after countries with weak troubling financial sectors coupled with other factors.

I agree with you on why Japan should keep the US bonds but will need the money to reliquify their system when the banking system tanks. As for gold, avg industry cost of production is $336. That is why you are seeing mine closings. Many coin shops can't keep supply of bullion coins in shops at these prices.

ah, love those 'price keeping operations' on the nikei....musta learned it from the FED ;~ )

well it's option expiration week so this place should be pretty manic by wed.

Nikkei is in oversold territory and will bounce but unless fundamentals improve dramatically, it will not go up alot. Talks to open trade with US is going nowhere, they are still in denial. They are in a paradox where if bond yield go up then stocks go up and vice versa, and we may head that way. jap bond again has poor risk/reward, i would stay away from that when i have us bond offering much greater net yield.

wait till tomorrow after the big "relief" rally -- peole will be shocked that the U.S. keeps slipping -- especially since the asia "problem" will be considered over.

i expected the japanese government to orchestrate some fireworks today and they did... stuck a gun to big pension and insurance company heads and said "Buy, or else!"

Spz now up 5, this must mean that Japan is going to crash tonight. Remember Japan was down 4% on friday and the dow went up so it is only fair if the dow goes up again that Japan will go down. Let's see if Hong Kong follows Japan tonight, they should.

ahhhhh but like fireworks on the 4th, a big rally with out fundamentals can be fleating, fleecing, shear the sheep? Bleeting???

I would bet a lot of overseas investors are buying into the Nikkei, the Japanese instutions follow not lead.

I lived in Hong Kong from 1991-1996 and worked as institutional marketing manager of Royal Bank of Canada. I had lunch on a weekly basis with Managing directors of Daiwa, Nikko, et al. They always laughed about how the govt. manipulated the markt, especially with the forced "patriotic" buy programs they ran from time to time. They said it was like doing it with an ugly girl -- just close your eyes and do it for he emperor! Anything else?

bulls angle of attack on the charts is too steep. doesn't mean it won't keep going up for a while on pure momentum. does mean that velocity is not sustainable. watch for speed to approach stall before betting on a pullback.

any body want to bet on a down bounce after lunch in japan??? or is it really going to fly???

Is there a fundamental change to jap that spur this buying? why is everybody so excited over one day gain vs months of decline. Don't months of decline deserve a bottoming period? Volume of the HK october top was abysmal leading to the decline. I agree with sellit, nikkei is very rigged market. Japn have to get by with horrible bond yield because they had worse trouble with equities ( down 60% from its high ) and they are not that good investors who can scan the world for opportunities ( savers are traditionally not risk takers )

cash flow into SE Asia = cash flow outa N America.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SO MUCH FOR THE BUY-AND-HOLD INVESTOR
On Oct. 27 and 28, a lot of 401 ( k ) money moved in and out of stocks
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/47/b3554165.htm

The Contrarian's View
http://fennel.assumption.edu/view/warmline.htm

"He who doesn't risk never gets to drink champagne." - Russian Proverb

Why is it, that when a market does a bounce, such as H.K. or Japan that people jump up and down saying, "I told you so!" No market ( except for gold ) goes straight down or straight up. We're seeing a novel unwind here folks. The novel is about the size of, "War and Peace." Definitely not a one night read.

What else can stock boosters do, but boost stocks? Is this not how they make mucho money? Bob Brinker would have a small audience if stocks entered a long bear market, such as gold has been in. Don't the gold bears also have a vested interest in boosting the stock and bond markets while attacking gold? Just keep your perspective on things.

Remember, the trick is to be in the right asset class at the right time. In this attempt, you will be 'wrong' in most peoples eyes.

Good night all..........

S.Korea to kick off ``Big Bang'' financial reforms
http://www.infoseek.com/Content?arn=a0207LBY587reulb-19971116&qt=korea&lk=noframes&col=NX&kt=A&ak=news1486.

Full story Saddam Says He Doesn't Want Confrontation
http://www.infoseek.com/Content?col=NX&arn=a1467rontt-19971116&dbid=4&CAT=NEWS&lk=noframes&ak=news_head&kt=A

Tough time for IPO's
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971116/ipo_view_pricing_rap_2.html

am not all the way back yet.Come and go. not all here but trying to be. I like gold.nice. by for later. rest time. hi. how are you?

Put your feet up relax and enjoy. Dont worry about long term jurker,
he's the one that posts those nasty swear words like ph__k and crap.
Gold is go go go go good. B B B B B Buy.

This bounce was highly important to Japan Banking securities.
They had to balance their books this week, and report their financial positions.
If their indices had fallen early this week,
The incoming reports would be distastrous.
This is a concerted protection plan.
They learn well off the US.

Excessive whip-sawing, will wear down the patience of the investing masses.
Excessively volatile market movements, tend to lead to even larger swings.

You fit right in! Welcome to the "nut house"!!! P.S. I don't think you've totally recovered from that car accident or I hope to god ( for your poor sake ) that you haven't.

Hi I like you.you nice. gold gold is good for you then you are here too be is them ok. can't hink rite--try to hi there Mr Bounce.

dont like you. like bounce and gold and things. gold mak me rich are they here yet.? by kitco peoples.l likE you.

Can someone put a straight jacket on Quig and drag him the hell out of here. No offense ( yeah sure ) Quig but you belong in some mental ward way way way far from here so take a pill ( or maybe the WHOLE bottle ) and give us a break today.

I l l l like yu u you too. Cc cc can you rr relate ttoo
this market. Can you sssseee ththththings wewe cant?