Ken Donovan: Why on earth would you advocate a closure of this site, or any other, merely because the participants are consistently wrong in their projections?

My goodness man, use us as a contrary indicator and make a ton of money in the process. There is a mucho cash to be had in general equities right now. ...... Follow Karlito for example. He doubled his cash in 3 trading days. Many others do equally well. ..... I suppose.

In the meantime, we have every right to express our opinions as we formulate them. And will probably continue to do so right up to the moment that our masters no longer allow us the privilege. For a revocation of that franchise, perhaps you would do well to contact your congressman. Obviously, free speech ain't for everyone.

Ken:

Haystack did not accuse you of obscenity. Methinks you doth protest too much.

I, for one, learned immensely from your insightful and eloquent contributions. Please stay and answer HighRise's questions.

Your style and brevity of thought is appreciated here. I especially like the way you use "your" instead of "you're" for the contraction of "you are". It's wrong but you're saving 2 bytes of disk space. Thanks again.

up periscope

The disseminators on this site have a common goal.
They seek to destroy the functionality of the posting's within this group.
They seek to turn others away from this site.

Why?
Since most information dispersed here, relates,
To the forcoming changes, that we see, occurring.
Why don't they want us to continue in this vein of thought.

They seek to disrupt this flow of thought.
They do not want the many lurkers who visit,
Which increases dramatically during times of change,
From becoming aware of how shaky,
The global financial position really is.

By the very nature of their disruptions,
One can view them as,
Intelligent
Articulate,
Informed.

They have a modus operandi,
To which they adhere.
The ability that they have to intelligently attack,
To twist and turn,
Then change mid-stream.
Changing alias's, name's, attitudes, and directions of thought.
Leads me to believe that they have been trained,
And placed here, to continue to disrupt.

Their concerted attacks during periods of crisis,
Leads my to believe,
That they are working as a group,
Under a common objective.

If they were to be traced,
It would not surprise me,
To see that they have a common employer.

They provide one with an insight,
As to the degree that they are concerned.
An indicator as such.

Like trying to support the Dow,
They are doomed to failure.
As they provide the information,
That they wish to conceal.

They attempt thought control.

----------------------------------------------------------

We are at a highly critical, pivot-point in time.
My t/a confirms the failure's within the financial system.
We have just seen the greatest bull trap in history.
And they seek to let no one, know, realize,
And grasp, what is about to fall, on humanity

This next sell-off that is about to happen,
Will leave many gasping for breath.

p.s.
I subscribe to my own instincts,
Not to advice that I read here.
I analyze my own judgements,
And hold no one, but myself, to the outcome.
I am still holding, all the same positions,
That I held before,
And have not lost money, as yet.
Even though I can afford to be wrong.

Steve Puetz
My t/a concurs with yours.
Alarm bells are ringing.

I cannot choose the exact time,
But like you, know, of what is about to occur.

If there is a concerted effort to halt,
This natural phenomena from occurring.
It only delays the inevitable.

To not correct now, which I doubt,
Will merely delay the cycle till early next year.
I will be as ready then as now.
IMHO

Regards
Nick Laird

Aurator: Shhhh! If you whisper, perhaps they ( it ) won't wake up! Wildest night I can remember on "up over". Hepcat and LGB were on the side of reason tonight as well -- guess they saw what disruption can be like from the other side of the fence!

I still maintain "down under" is more sane and rational. Still disagree?

I have noticed recently a lot of the original posters have left this
site, and the few sincere ones will soon leave, if not already.
What will remain ? Only a few babbling foulmouths. What a waste of
band space. Kitco was great while it lasted.

IDT, I think you'll find it Fri. Nov. 7 @14:49

November 17, 1997
Disgraced banker jailed in Mexico

MONTERREY, Mexico ( Reuters ) - Mexican authorities Monday jailed disgraced banker Jorge Lankenau, who had previously been held under house arrest, on charges that he defrauded investors of millions of dollars, officials said.

"Today we executed an arrest order against Jorge Lankenau for general fraud as well as conspiracy. He is now being held in prison," Nuevo Leon state prosecutor Jose Santos Gonzalez, said at a news conference Monday.

Lankenau is charged with swindling investors in his troubled bank Banca Confia out of $170 million in murky offshore deals. He was arrested two days after Citicorp's Citibank signed a deal on Aug. 27 to buy Confia for up to $250 million from Mexican authorities, who had bailed out the bank at a cost of at least $1 billion.

Nonetheless, authorities allowed the former banker to remain under house arrest at his $20 million mansion in this northern industrialized city. The move angered many ordinary Mexicans. Lankenau even escaped from house arrest for a few days in October before turning himself in to authorities, who ordered him back to his home.

Last Thursday a Mexican judge issued an arrest order for him. Lankenau could face five to 12 years in prison on the fraud charge and 10 years on the conspiracy charge, prosecutor Santos Gonzalez said at the news conference.

I was just wondering why you were wasting your time? That's all. If you were bothered by this site so much, why were you here in the first place?

That posting got double spaced or something sorry for the appearance and I hope I didnt offend you. I was just interested in why people who hate this site and the posters on it so much they stay here and complain to and insult the posters.

I e-mailed Kitco a copy of the worst out takes from the last month, some of which have come from people like Donovan. Of course many came from tonight which were beyond description. I may post them some day. In total they are really to much to take - they probably should not be posted unless some new posters need to be reminded. They consist of people insulting others over the smallest of issues. Foul language being used that is not called for anywhere.

We all have to remember to be careful with our e-mail / post, the person who we are addressing can not see our face and many comments can be misinterpreted. Many of the Kitcoites are excellent letter writers and know from much experience how to successfully post. I admire their ability to do this - and respond so quickly.

This has been a weird night to say the least.
I apologize if I contributed to any of it's negativity.

Good Night and good luck to all.

Tuesday, November 18, 1997
Markets await Thiessen move as C$ continues to slide
By DAVID THOMAS
Economics Reporter The Financial Post

The C$ resumed its slide toward US70 yesterday, continuing a slump that has seen it lose nearly US2.5 in the past six weeks. The C$ fell US0.17 yesterday to close at US70.59, its lowest close since January 1995, when it hit US70.42 during the Mexican peso crisis. In afternoon trading, the C$ dipped as low as US70.43.The C$ has taken a beating in recent weeks, the result of wider volatility in global stock and currency markets.

It has also been undermined in day-to-day trading as currency traders speculate about the timing of an interest rate hike, which would shore up the C$. Unless the Bank of Canada raises rates this morning, economists and traders will be looking to a central bank report and comments from governor Gordon Thiessen tomorrow morning for clues.

"Everyone wants to know whether the Bank of Canada is still determined to raise rates or whether it sees less urgency to cool down the economy," said Robert Palombi, senior economist at MMS International, a division of Standard & Poor's Inc. After raising the Bank of Canada's key overnight lending rate to 3.75% on Oct. 1, Thiessen has indicated several times that additional increases would be made.

While bank policy is focused on rate hikes to slow the steaming economy and keep down inflation, higher rates would also strengthen the C$.

Economists say Thiessen has been holding off on a rate increase of 25 to 50 basis points because of market volatility. In the bank's semiannual report on monetary policy tomorrow or in Thiessen's comments, economists and traders will be looking for signs the bank expects continued strong economic growth. If the economy is seen to be slowing, some observers say, the likelihood of a rate increase will be reduced, even with
continued weakness of the C$.

You got to look at Asian markets so obvious the contrast of all RED but Japan which is up +500= pts. http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Good Night again

November 17, 1997
Inco to outline strategies for investors, analysts

TORONTO ( CP ) - Nickel giant Inco's top executive could have some serious explaining to do when the company meets today with investors and analysts in downtown Toronto.

Slumping world nickel prices have continued to drag down earnings for Toronto-based Inco Ltd., the world's largest nickel producer. And that, in turn, has caused Inco shares to plummet on the stock market, recently hitting 52-week lows on the Toronto Stock Exchange. After swinging from highs of $51.45 this year to a bottom of $24.90, Inco's shares traded up 10 cents to close at $25.85 Monday.

No one is saying the Toronto company is in deep financial trouble. Hopes are still high for its much-touted Voisey's Bay nickel project in Labrador, now mired in numerous delays. But there's no denying the fact Inco faces a money crunch as metal prices continue to fall, and its executives may have to do some fast talking today to convince shareholders to hang in.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/nov17_inc.html

November 17, 1997
Thwarted Canadian mining company gets U.S. settlement

TORONTO ( CP ) - A stroke of a pen held by U.S. President Bill Clinton has all but ended a ten-year battle between a Canadian company and American environmentalists over a mine near Yellowstone National Park.

Clinton has just signed a bill authorizing the U.S. government to pay Crown Butte Resources Ltd. of Toronto $65 million US for part of the New World Mine site in Montana. "We think that at long last we have something that is acceptable," company chairman Karl Elers said in an interview Monday from Houston.

"We originally felt this property could be mined safely and responsibly. But things took on a life of their own. Ultimately, we had to acknowledge this would be a source of intense fighting for years to come with no benefit to the shareholders." Crown Butte and its partners spent eight years and $37 million US getting the century-old gold mine ready for production.

The huge site is in the middle of a mountain, from which three major rivers flow. "It became the most contentious mining issue probably ever in U.S. history," said Tom Cassidy, lawyer for the Washington-based environmental group American Rivers. The company now expects to spend $22.5 million US cleaning up the property. More will be spent covering loans, legal fees and obligations to other land owners.

It's unclear how much shareholders will get, Elers said.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/nov17_thw.html

Nick: I concur with your opinion regarding a growing sense of unease in those of the wider world but I do not believe in the idea of a concerted effort to disrupt these proceedings. Those of us who convene here and the ideas we express, are of no concern to the wider world of investment ideas.

Those who continue to profess a belief in the sanctity and security of fiat systems and all that they represent are a useful source of outside opinion as long as they refrain from personal attack. The public nuisances are just that. Irritating nuisances that say more about the world we presently live in, than they do about conspiracy. Conspiracies do ocurr but we do not represent a large enough body of opinion to be worth the effort of confecting a formal campaign of disruption.

In the end the ideas expressed by yourself, Steve, Donald, JTF and many others will bear fruit. I just don't believe it will be as soon as many would predict. The stakes, for the general world, are far too high and the vested interests continue to have the field all to themselves. ..... The rate of paper failures will have to increase dramatically to have much impact on the near term course of events. Recent failures are being papered over with remarkable ease and the herd is blissfully awaiting the opportunity to buy the next major dip. ...... In the meantime, all we can do try to understand as best we can. ......... and hope that those who revile us will find somewhere else to go.

Nick ( @Aussie ) & Aurator:Glad to see both periscopes up! Nick - Got your E-mail. Nick: My economy-grade stock watching software is not as sophisticated as yours, but I see a few short term items.

First the dollar has been rising the last few days, as well as long term rates dropping. The sp-500 shows a very strong 2-day rally, although my indicator of net buying in the NYSE ( all stocks rising above 2 standard deviations from the 40day MA ) is not even twitching. However, if stock prices stay up long enough to entice the baby boomers, this short term rally may continue. Worden, my stock data vendor is bullish on computer stocks -- they're usually pretty good short term ( days ) .

My take on all of this from "up over" is that the US markets are heading up for at least a few days more. Nick - Please take care on your shorts.

Long term, things are bearish.

Saddam is backing off, but the Middle East situation is far from over. Some of the Israelis are building houses in the Palestinian section.

Did you notice that Janet Reno has appointed 4 more special prosecutors for a variety of things? I have always felt she was honest -- and now she is on the warpath. Five all of a sudden, when on Sat there was only one. Reminds me of the A.A. Milne book - right, Aurator! "And Now We Are Five"

Japan seems to be in a state of short term euphoria. However, it will not take long for those euphoric individuals in the market to realize that little has changed in how the Japanese government is dealing with the failed banks, and new bank failures will fill the newsmedia.

Looks like your Elliot wave graphs predict a sp-500 TP around 970-980 in a few days. Above 980 bullish as far as I can tell, less than 980 bearish. I'll get the hang of this eventually.

The movements today by most of the Asian countries,
Seem to be a vote of no-confidence,
Towards Japan's extraordinary gains.

They do seem to voice the thought,
That the measures taken by Japan and their Gov't
Will not fix the problems,
That are inherant within their systems.
IMHO

It is indeed unfortunate, that this great forum has been attacked by
juvenile graffitti artists. Their intentions were very well put by
Nick@Aussie's>Nick@Aussie's posting at 00:11. I certainly wish and urge Bart to implement the necessary measures, to insure the future viability of this forum because, it serves as a very valuable information source to all investors and students of the world gold and stock markets.

During these difficult and historic market days, I would urge all the regulars to ignore these immature imbeciles and continue to post their informative market
analysis and other news worthy web sites since, there are many
individuals who religiously read the serious postings on a daily basis
to keep in touch with what is going on in the world markets.
Thanks again Nick@Aussie

JTF
You present a forceful argument.for antipodean sanity. Our fathers, uncles and grandfathers who fought besides yours told us the same thing!


Tim 13:26 Superb!

Perhaps I could repost a quote you appended to your maiden post Date: Fri Mar 14 1997 06:40 Tim ( @last... ) :



"Time will run back and fetch the Age of Gold" ( Milton )



Just noone has turned over the egg-timer yet, eh?

Earl: Thank you for your perspective. It is easy to get carried away with what we see is wrong with the world, and think the big day down is tomorrow. The storm clouds are only forming -- but I tend to overreact as well, despite that.

The ideal would be healthy dissention on this site, with all points of view expressed, so that the gold bugs don't get carried away with their own logic.

November 17, 1997
Students raise tent city to protest APEC meeting

VANCOUVER ( CP ) - As students at B.C.'s largest university built a tent
city Monday to protest this week's APEC summit, Alfredo Rodriguez took
off some clothes to show why they should protest.

Jean Chretien will chair Tuesday's meeting. Others at the table will include Suharto, U.S. President Bill Clinton, Chinese President Jiang Zemin and 15 other leaders.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/NationalTicker/CANOE-wire.APEC-Rally.html

Does the average Japanese savings account holder realize his money is not there? Why no panics and bank runs? Is anyone on the Kitco site familiar with the man on the street view of all this in Japan?

Steve

Geez I'm pretty tame to the nut cases that took over today.....Aurator: Check behind woodpile.....Earl: Hope that trip to the Philippines ( did I spell that right--it's almost 2 AM ) goes off as planned over Thanksgiving time and you find what you seek ( grin thing ) I'm tired and up in the air as could be in the USA @ this time tomorrow or could not.....Good night to all the decent people @ this site!!!!

If anyone is watching let me know what you think. Apparently central banks have been selling gold. Since when have our grovernments and central banks started doing the right thing? Switzerland has telegraphed that it may be selling its reserves or a portion. This has caused them to be able to get a lower price if they do sell, not a smart thing from the way I see it unless they have somthing up their sleeves. I read what someone else posted about gold bottoming at about 285 in 1985 and how it was up to 500 or so a few years later. My opinion is this is just a cycle like any other good opportunities now in some oversold gold stocks, I am starting to buy selectivly. Bema Gold closed at 2.51 on TSE a bargain I bought 1500. It may fall more but how much lower can it go?

besides=beside

I don't know about the registration caper but this site still doesn't know where it is after midnight.

What's going on tonight?

Wim:tse up 20% today
Watch for more to come.

I've often wondered what account holders in Japanese Banks felt about the bank failures in The Land of the Rising Sun, past, present and future.
Has anyone out there a take on tml's thoughts?

Japan moving quickly to 17 000. When does the gold buying begin?

John - I know we talked about this before, I still think you are

wrong - but that's your privledge/problem, I'll fill in the blanks.

Gold will be at enough, to enjoy the rest of my life, on ( I will change

this to "in" ) my lifetime. That's all I need along with a tail wind

and smooth greens.

Bart - If a registration system will expose the hoodlums, where do I

send the money?

Any golfers looking for Christmas presents - I can speak highly of the

book "Follow the Wind" by Bo Links.

I see the 'spawn' got put to bed by their mommies. How sweet it is!

Sabot, didn't you post here many months ago? If so, welcome back! Don't make yourself such a stranger. I notice that you don't get real excited about anything ( paper/gold ) . Perhaps you know more than the rest of us put together. Let us know if you 'see' anything of mention, or perhaps, by your posting today, you did ( ? ) . By the way, I liked that comment on what a sabot slug is for. Appropriate! HAR!

Bart Kitner: Hope you see this post. A few hours ago ( yesterday ) we had some posts that clearly indicate that there are knowledgable individuals who wish to frequent this site, but cannot afford to let their names known. Can you give us passwords ( known only to ourselves and your system ) so that those who desire privacy can maintain it?

We may have some influential individuals who frequent this site - who of course will not -- if what happened tonight is recurring. On the other hand they may not wish to also, if they cannot post because of privacy concerns.

This adds about 300 million ounces to reserves.
I recall an earlier bid that failed. Actual 70% interest is through a Russian subsiduary.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/971117/pan_american_dukat_bi_1.html

Try again, darn computers____picky, picky.

This adds about 300 million ounces to reserves.
I recall an earlier bid that failed. Actual 70% interest
is through a Russian subsiduary.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/971117/pan_america_dukat_bi_
1.html

G'day,G,nite all. Have not been around much lately but have just caught up on a lot of postings. Bart-- good on yer, mate. One of the penalties we have to suffer to allow freedom of speech is to listen to the neurotic incompetents that our society seems to spawn. It makes this site a much less desirable place and should rightly be controlled. Charge them a small fee and they'll have to ask mommy for their allowance -- so will go elsewhere.

JTF-- "sane" posters from downunder? Don't know whether to thank you or ask that you get a reality check.

HighRise-- slap! slap! Jump, mate. You won't go down as fast as gold.

Antipodeans and anyone else trading on the Aussie market. There are some all-time bargains around at the moment. This negativism has made for some super deals. Good article in the Fin Review today about Coplex Resources ( CXR ) . They bought a deep sea drilling rig for $23 million 10 months ago and just sold it for $72 million. Result--$48.3 million profit equal to 23 cents/share AND the shares closed today at 34 cents!!! The market is valuing the whole rest of the company at 11 cents. When the market wakes up there shall be a major revaluing. Interesting what Kahuna Grande said yesterday about the tightness of the oil rig market. Just wish I had bought myself an oil rig a year ago!! Day lease rates for offshore rigs have gone out of sight!! Existing rigs are booked out for 2-3 years.

Auratious-- where for art thou??

Nick@Oz-- One moment I'm happy I've taken profits on my puts and the next I wish I had 'em back. Notice how the put-mongers are not lowering their prices?? A bit too much exhuberance in Yankeeland, methinks!!

Nick
Pine not, I for art hear.

G'day Aurator. I cut out an article on Kiwi gold shares that I was gonna quote to you. Kept it here on my desk for two weeks. Guess what -- the missus chucked it out today along with all my other rubbish. Probably save you money, as I don't believe there is any precious in N.Z. anyway ( other than B.J. ) . Sold yer property yet?? Mate, I can't imagine you in Auckland with NEIGHBOURS!!! Can't smell the cow poo there, mate. Not worth livin'!!

Nick It's not just the neighbours, mate, it's just that the neighbours'll be aucklanders.

Morning All!!

So difficult getting into Kitco - I get 10-12:59 from the previous day, and then cannot access from 12:59 to 23:59 on that day at all!

Anyone else having the same problem? By the time it does adjust itself [about 9am here] the day has begun, and there's little time to come into Kitco to see what's happening today, let alone what happened since bedtime last night!

I hope everything is going well for all of you? {:-}} It appears there's been an invasion and attack on the good people of this site - and not necessarily on those who post, but good lurkers as well.

Such a pity that the inherent decency within most people is degraded by a few.

Please just ignore them ? Bart has a GREAT site, and if we can find lemonade in this lemon, it is that their opposite [albeit puerile] view gives us another angle from which to view the whole. Thank them for that energy.

Take care.

D.A.: Thanks for the OJ tip of about a month ago. Made a few quid.

Tolerant1:..."this isn't about your wallet."... You be a wise man!

EBber: Eric Blair was George Orwell's real name. ( and he saw that the trend was not gonna be his friend )

G'day colleen. Let's get that JGAI going today!!

Europe starting out with black cyberink. Hungary up 8.05%!! Who spiked the goulash???

--H M!!

colleeen, I am giving you 3 e s cos someone else did, and I think you deserve the extra one, I agree the upside world until 02:00 is discouraging to antipodeans. But, then again, these good folk have put up with me for a long time, so maybe it's a kindness to make posting difficult until after ( local ) dinner time, I've usually had the chance to sup a little NZ Grape or grain by then, so I'm sometimes quite garrulous post-prandially, and sometimes comatose.

These cycle theories can drive you crazy, I've looked at some myself over time, ( and time again ) ''''' finagling factors, look for the finagling factors, those things, those ineffable things that make *this* time different, that make the market models look like Potato Head rather than Barbie , cos each time is unique. there were many people here whose opinions I respect, whose charts never told them about the recent drops in Au, and you know, long before you joined this forum, Mr Peutz and I had a crossing of swords. Never personal, on theory and fact only, right Mr Peutz? He called a top, and, well, the jury is still out, each day that passes, until Tokyo today, made Mr Peutz look better, I am not convinced of the depth of today's response. I shall have the wisdom of hindsight by end of Jan/Feb next year, but I shall acknowledge now, that despite this hiccup, Mr Peutz is looking good. Unless there is something untoward over the mid-winter/new Year season ( Au & Ag did peak in Jan ) I cannot see a new Dow high.

TOMORROW ( Nov 18 ) registration for posting begins.

Here how it'll work:

Contributors will submit a name ( handle ) and your email address to our server. An email auto-responder will immediately send you back your password which will be required in order to post a message. Your name will be inserted automatically into each posting, you need only supply your password.

Anyone who is totally obnoxious will find that their account is disabled. Anyone who wants to be relentlessly oboxious will need a lot of valid email addresses or a lot of friends. ( unlikely )

To EB: So sorry, we switched from a UNIX based platform to NT. Our programmer says NT doesn't like the non-standard character set.

To LGB: Maybe this is a good time to be respectful of the other contributors.

Aurator; Nick ( s ) ; Colleen: Thanks for holding up the wee hours! Ain't Japan a wonder!...singlehandedly saving the world markets!...RR would be proud!

Bart
Groovy where do I sign and promise I shan't be oboxious, where do I send my money, my e-money, as in "three e-coins in a fountain?" Course, tomorrow is today in fact it's almost yesterday. life is confusing living on ceilings...

Mr Puetz. Apologies for mispelling your name

Bart
I Thank You Humbly.
You have one of the best sites on the web.
It will be good to keep it that way.

EB
Sure that wasn't last night?
The cognac still lingers?

ALL
Have a look at what smart money is up to.
Wonder why?
http://www.marketgauge.com/charts/cspcmem.htm

Globex under selling pressure.
Currently blocked with a bid of 71 contracts.
A sell off here will be like riding the Tsunami.

Californian earthquakes:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/QUAKES/WEEKREPS/LATEST/cencal.gif
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/QUAKES/CURRENT/ncal.html

What's up?

Nick@Aussie G'day, there's a redback on the dunny seat. Would be obliged if you could tell me publicly or o'wise where there's a better site...

BART-Hello !

Having only now been able to scroll through last night's obscenities, and applaud you for the stand you are making.

Dear Aurator: Thank you for my extra 'e' ! Yes, dealing with cycles is very frustrating! I see that financial cycles are equally enigmatic, but feel one has to investigate any new avenue, just in case! Wish I had JTF and Nick's fine abilities. Take care....did I glimpse that you are moving away from the farm?

Nick@C- What on earth is JGAI??

The Gold Eagle/Digest Encyclopaedia doesn't seem to work, and I think, on behalf of all the unlearned Lurkers such as myself, that we desperately need to find some index of Financial Terms! Can you help? Thanks {:-}}

And HOW did you manage to get EB's wonderful characters? Just love his posts..

6pak- Thanks for great news post this am. Our local papers are useless, and I'm giving up on them!

Morning Savage- nice to meet you.

Please all wish me luck- this week momentous in my [property] life! Should lead to a golden future and the gold investment market..

Regards

Morning to both of you!

I wonder what view Japanese people working on contract in RSA would have? Perhaps they would keep a beadier eye on their home markets, as they are so far away?

A young friend is teaching a group of Japanese English, and perhaps I could ask her for their views on this tomorrow. Will also give her the Kitco address, in case any of her pupils wish to come on line to discuss with you.

Nick@Aussie, my last post sounded far more caustic than intended,;- ) ) there is a tyranny of type too
just ask , who, I think can not call himself  any more.
Colleeen, yup, i is a reformed hayseed now, soon to sell the farm and prise myself away from the cow farts that Nick@Canberrra ( extra r for the tip tonite mate ) can't seem to forget. Course I dare not tell you about all the birds here, even the golden goose.

tip o hat to 2

Nick ( @Aussie ) - your 11/18/1997 03:15

It's the Long Valley Caldera acting up again. A lot of magma moving underground. If an eruption ever takes place there, it will make Mt. Saint Helens or even Mt. Pinatubo look like a small bonfire.

Here's some additional sites to check out.

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/118-37.html

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/Long_Valley.html

http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/volc_images/north_america/california/long_valley.html

= 'teaching English to a group of Japanese"

Sorry!

JTF - I use to think that way also, back when "Big Trader" sent messages here. It was like reading a Clancy novel. But, like the early days of the net the good times are now gone. The "people" have arrived. They bring with them many things; good ( R&D money ) and bad ( _fill in the blank_ ) . I know I need them, I know they need rules. As long as I don't have to become one of them, I can live with their rules. Soon the cycle will repeat. There will be a new place without the "people", anyone who has been there knows what it's like. But the "people" seem to always find it, then change it, then destroy it. Then the cycle repeats. I read a 40 year old book lately that referred to a place like this, they called it Galt's Gulch. Sometimes I wonder if all the great posters' who have left Kitco have found Galt's Gulch. If so, I hope I earn an invitation someday. Until then, IMO, we need to find a way to hold individuals responsible for harassing and defamatory posts.

If an "unidentified" source can't find someone or some way to forward a message to us, then which of us are they really trying to reach?

Aurator
You have caught me out.
I must defer.

I looked at that comment as I wrote it and wondered.
But then thought, that till I've surfed,
All the corners of the web,
I cannot say that this is,
"The Best Site on the Web"
Still surfing and looking for a better site.
( :o}}}}}}}}}


Top Japan bank folds:
The ministry was still in a state of denial about the extent of the financial crisis and once again it had come up with a jury-rigged plan and tried to put a smoke screen over the situation.
"The longer they keep running away from the problem, the worse it is going to get," she said.
"The situation is going to have to get more critical before they take the necessary action."
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971118003718019?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=4410

Stocks hit as Seoul ends won defence
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971118010835121?=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2633

I guess it's a done deal. I should of finished reading the posts before I sent that last one. Who will the be last "free" poster?

Tomorrow will be a new Kitco. I wonder what it will be like.

RE: registration. "An email auto-responder will immediately send you back your password" - this is a mistake. Make 1 hour delay and loose all, who wants to have fun now.

Nick@Aussie surf on

there's always another wave beyond

always higher ground...

I'd be obliged if you'd point the way, if my albatross does not spot it first...

good evening and good night

zz

Bart - Tell me where to send the check...you are king...

Downunderators - G' day/eve...hey Nick ( inthecan ) ...been a while...yes, Aurator, I have been stifled...and what the hell am I doing up??

Savage ( Dude ) - "It was a bright cold day in April and the clocks were striking thirteen". 'E'ric 'B'lair aka G. Orwell I posted this curious similarity months back...sorry you missed it. And don't be so sure of bucking the current trend. It can hurt financially AND mentally...ouch The clock waits for no one...tick-tock, tick-tock...BONG! BONG! And you are welcome regarding the OJ call...you must have missed those bazillion posts also...

Gold - you are setting yourself up...again...

Colleen - I received all your mails. Thank you much. I am still studying. Will give you feedback when I have it. Thanks Dear ;- )

Ted - 8 - 0...h M!

away...to the Mark! ( get it savage? )

edazzled

Nick@Aussie hows it going. Something really worries me about this
world wide financial upheaval ( I apologise if they are strong words
for it.} Markets over the last few weeks have been exposed for what
they truly are, tools with which to manipulate a huge number of people
world wide. Look at Telstra. This stinks. What the people own is sold
to them at a price significantly lower than what the market thinks its
worth. You might say that is good. I say it is our governments duty to
ensure it gets the maximum price for any asset owned by the people.
This was stage managed to bring votes spewing in for little Johnny
Howard and his cohorts. These guys are still on a boat heading to
hell and taking Australians with them. Spoke to an Indonesian today
what happened with Bank closures there is horrific
He is so worried about his family in Java. He tells me Tommy Soeharto's
car company can sell cars for A$6000 new. Villagers have to wear some
of responsability for fires, but they only reacted to Chinese loggers
greedy confiscation of their land.
Japan is a joke. If they expect us to wear whats happened to the Nikkei
then they are mad or in deep dodo.I think the latter. I keep coming
back to the cascading glass beads as an analogy for whats going on.
And throwing the Nikkei into first while she is travelling backwards
is an attempt to slow down this cascading process. The same can be
said for America. Politicians around the world will all suddenly
hit on it. They are playing with fire when they start playing the
markets. And ultimately this will lead to the demise of politicians
the resurrection of a free market, and the elevation of gold to its
rightfull place a top of the financial pyramid.
Does this make me anachist?
SDR's held by RBA 37,000,000
Forex 20,415,000,000
IMF Res 626,000,000
Gold 1,757,000,000
Total Res Assets 22,835,000,000
Figures $A
Average monthly gold price since Jan 78 is US$380.50

Bart: Where do we submit to register?

all,
For those who interested in ORIENTAL WAY OF LIVE ...CHECK THIS OUT,quite useful: http://www.ccs.neu.edu/home/thigpen/html/art_of_war.html and
http://mars.superlink.net/user/fsu/philo.html

Today,both the KOREA WON,MALAYSIA RINGGITS HIT really hard!!lost a lots!
and the malaysia stock market became "CASINO" as ted mentioned long time ago!Personally think,The financial sectors in THAILAND AND MALAYSIA STILL very very bad situation!
AT LAST,KOREA HAND OUT THEIR HELPLESS HANDS TO THE "I.M.F."!!!
ITS A MAY DAY..........
QUESTOR,JTF...forget about those kids....!do our business...stay coolllll!

KOREA....IN TROUBLESSSSSSSS!

The Tokyo cavalry.
http://avidtrader.com/opinion/2nd_op.htm

M to cut 42,000 jobs, says newspaper
http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/nov18_gmt.html

Weekly Reports
http://www.mrci.com/reports.htm

Chirac backs call for moves to end stock market turmoil
http://news.bbc.co.uk:80/hi/english/business/newsid_31000/31917.stm


*EB*
Live data from SIMEX:
Other Futures Contracts
Eurodollar - Euroyen - Nikkei 300 - Euromark -10yr Japanese Govt Bond - Spot US$/Yen - Spot US$/DM - Fuel Oil - Gold - Brent - Crude -MSCI - Taiwan Index -Options Contracts
http://web3.asia1.com.sg/cgi-bin/simex/futuresdet.pl?nikkei225

Today's TOPIX - Intraday
http://www.tse.or.jp/xe/edef.html

Bart, Re Registration. Thank you!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/boj_says_to_maintain_1.html

I must say losing 50% on gold stocks over the past year or so while others in paper are getting fat is kind of hard to take and irritating as well. My friends, will the worm turn or continue to burrow deeper? One wonders. Methinks, as I wax Snakespearian, that this indeed is the buying opportunity of the century. Anyone interested in robbing a bank to raise some seed money to invest?

Ready .. when do we start? And thank you Bart for keeping the children OFF!!

Iraq and current war history.
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/iraq/iraq.htm

Bart ... I think that your frame version quotes are "stuck" again ??

Bart Kitner: Thanks for registration. What is the internet address we need to submit our handle to? Could you give more details ( instructions ) on how to register?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971117/yen_demand_to_grow_i_1.html

Mornin all! Thanks for Bonus joke!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971117/japan_announces_econ_1.html

So now that we know that the markets are manipulated do the people that lost money have recourse in a court of law? If someone was following the markets and entered a put or call, obviously they would have a claim to recoup their losses.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971117/brazil_s_bruised_ban_1.html

Iraq and more.
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/iraq/iraq.htm

by Tom Popaj, Global Trading Desk
http://www.askrjo.com/precious.htm

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971117/bankboston_bkb_n_se_1.html

The US is great at pontificating. We constantly know what is "best" for everybody else. I think we need to clean up our own back yard. We should stay out of other countries business. We have gone from policeman of the world to a world monitor of everything.

The United States government is elected by the American people, it is not elected by people of the world.

http://www.amcity.com:80/denver/stories/111797/newscolumn1.html

Donald: Do you think we should send the Wanniski On the Gold Standard piece to Mr. Dubroff?

Maybe a whole bunch of should send it.

http://www.webpage.com:80/hindu/daily/971117/02/02170006.htm

Tolerant: And to Bob Brinker and to The Hindu. The problem is that they won't understand it until it is too late to do anything about it.

From Colin's Financial Charts, Quotes, News and Stock Market Crash Page
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/finan.htm
18th November Update:
The market curbs on the Dow Jones Industrial Average may be widened from the current 350/550 limits to 600-800 and 1200-1600 by the New York Stock Exchange, and additional curbs may be added after the two currently used. Are these the kind of falls they are expecting?

The South Korean won plummeted to its daily limit down, for the second day running. There were reportedly no buyers. 13 financial reform bills failed in the South Korean parliament.

Japan's Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto said that public funds may be used to prop up the economy by supporting the banks, an about-turn on previous policy. This action would be likely to increase Japan's fiscal deficit.

Japan's Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka said in a news conference that Japan and the United States will cooperate in the currency market to prevent falls in the yen/dollar rate and would "act appropriately." Could Japanese/US cooperation be behind the recent spectacular rises in the Nikkei 225 index when other Asian indexes have continued to decline?

TUESDAY IN TOKYO: All Asian Stock Markets awash in RED - Malaysia losing 6% -- only the Nikkei rises - UP 4%. It bears repeating that ONLY the BOJ has the motive and financial clout to so dramatically reverse the Nikkeis KAMIKAZE dive!

Another startling announcement make in TOKYO today, which may have important ramifications for the US Dollar, T-bonds, and Wall Street:

Yen demand to grow in Asia as dollar link ends - BOJ

TOKYO, Nov 17 ( Reuters ) - Demand for the yen in the Asian region will naturally increase now that many Asian countries have stopped linking the value of their currencies to the U.S. dollar, Bank
of Japan ( BOJ ) executive director Takashi Anzai said on Monday

It would be only natural for currency transactions of the yen against local Asian currencies to increase after their departure from the dollar peg system, Anzai told an international symposium on European economic and monetary union and the yen.

He added: This applies to both the private and the public sector.

ORACLE QUESTION ON Behalf of Far-East Public & Private Sectors: So why do we need to continue to hold US Treasuries - DENOMINATED IN US DOLLARS?!

Whereas the BOJ will momentarily deter the slide in Nikkei, it will not resolve the underlying problems plaguing Japan and the rest of Asia. It is a ruse to confuse.

To appreciate the grim financial and economic conditions - becoming worse daily - one must examine the problems. This weekend an outstanding article was posted at GOLD-EAGLE, which describes in minute detail what is happening in Asia.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn111597.html

Gold Mining Outlook

by Steven Jon Kaplan

Updated @ 5:30 p.m. EDT, Monday, November 17, 1997.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities mostly recovered from early losses on Monday, while precious metals ended mostly slightly higher after a lower start. Gold gained forty cents, silver was up 3.8 cents, platinum rallied $1.50, and palladium dropped seventy cents. Sentiment is at an all-time low as analysts are almost unanimously calling for gold to drop to $280 per troy ounce, while investors purchased a total dollar value of more puts than calls on gold mining shares. Meanwhile, COMEX gold warehouse stocks continue to decline sharply.

On the New York Stock Exchange there were 150 new highs and 24 new lows, with 2259 stocks advancing and 689 stocks declining. The index put-call ratio was a moderately optimistic 1.05, while the equity put-call ratio was a moderately pessimistic 0.47.

Monday's COMEX gold estimated volume was a light 32,000 lots. Total COMEX gold open interest on Friday rose 700 to 219,010 contracts. COMEX gold warehouse stocks plunged by 38,394 ounces to a new 17-year low of 496,531 ounces ( no one will mention this until AFTER gold rallies sharply, since it doesn't fit neatly into a gloom and doom story ) , while COMEX silver warehouse stocks were unchanged at their 12-year low of 126,097,149 ounces. The Johannesburg gold index closed Monday morning at 783.2, up 5.9, with the U.S. dollar quoted at 4.8515 rand.

Thank Goodness a breath of fresh ait this morning. Last night was very bad and I look forward to registering today, I sorry that Bart has to do this extra work but ... . Thanks for the EXTRA efforts BART.

I don't know if anyone has asked this, but WHO is going to pay back PGU's gold loans back? Who loaned them the gold? How are they going to handle it on their books?

ECO is looking pretty sickly now also. As gold companies fold ( as Pegasus most probably will do ) , there will be impacts in the banking environment.

I believe that the changes going on are still positive. We are seeing the modification of the XAU, you will no longer be able to judge the future direction of bullion movements by movements in the XAU ( IMHO ) . Forward hedgers will continue to change the XAU picture.

Look before you purchase. It is becoming more important to know how much hedging a company has done. Furture performance will be impacted.

A. Goose: The folks at The GOLDEN PAGE have been telling people to look out for the hedge mentality mines for some time now. Many others as well.

http://www.henge.com/~vspina/gold.html

Is PGU still in XAU, or will the powers that be change the XAU index, like they're so often changing the Dow components?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/marketdata.htx?source=htx/http2_mw
says gold up a buck at $305.70

TORT -- After reading your 07:23, let's just say that year 1997 was a
time that money flowed in the wrong direction. This will mean that 1998
will FLOOD the right places!

NYSE May Allow Dow to Fall as Much as 800 Points The New York Stock Exchange is considering changing its rules to allow the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall as much as 800 points before it halts trading in U.S. equities, people familiar with the situation said. Big Board officials are in preliminary discussions that would let the Dow fall 600 to 800 points before temporarily shutting U.S. trading. Trading would be halted again if the average tumbled 1,200 to 1,600 points, the people said. Further declines could lead to a third suspension, they said. Under current rules, trading is suspended for 30 minutes when the Dow falls 350 points and an hour after it declines 550.

Planning for the coming event?

http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/11/18/financial_news/koreabanks_1.html

Thanks Nick!

Donald: your 18:04. Why would the Bank of Boston make a statement about Brazil? Denial stage perhaps? Would have been less suspicious if they said nothing! I wonder how much money the Bank of Boston has in SA?

Crystal Ball:
Yes, PGU is still part of the XAU.

Tolerant1:
Good for them, I just thought it was worth mentioning again here. I am sure it will throw many investors off. It could become a big problem for ABX.

What happened to the Gold charts?

JTF: The Bank of Boston, in business in the U.S. since 1794, has had a very active business in Brazil for more than 100 years. Brazil is very important to them.

Tolerant re yr 808; Too bad there is not some way that we could convey that to the idiots who run the current admn. BART; thank you for ridding the site of the maggot infestation.

The whole thing about suspending trade at certain intervals is just plain dumb.

The market stops for 16 and 48 hours on a regular basis.

Tortfeasor: Which bank? Someone else got there first, I suspect.

Tolerant
They don't want you to have too much fun all in one day.

A.Goose: You are right. The more it is mentioned the better for people just looking at gold mining companies that hedge.


Any individual looking at the mining sector should also look into brokers that specialize in the metal stocks. Believe me, your friendly local broker is not well versed in the metals. Not even at the majors. Do plenty of reading on the subject and test your broker before you put your cash down.

CBS 305.5 +0.80
CNBC 304.90
Kittco ???.??

Gold Firming ... silver holding...alternate site:
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?SOURCE=core/dbc

Leading US Economist sharply criticizes Greenspans policy regarding gold.

In an absolutely perfect world, no central bank would need to
hold any gold. David Ricardo, the great supply-side, classical
economist of the 19th century, wrote in his Principles of Political Economy in London of 1821, that When money is working at the peak of efficiency, the central bank need hold no gold.

Very few opponents of "a gold standard" know what it is or how it works or how many different ways there are to link paper money to gold.

If the Eurocrats understood that, they would go back to the
drawing boards and build a monetary system from that assumption. This would require them to first fix the Eurocurrency to something the markets would understand as being a reliable unit of account. What? The answer is the dollar, the world's key currency, except that the dollar still wobbles around relative to the gold price. The Euro would be possible, but only if the dollar is first fixed in value to gold. Then, the European nations in the Eurocurrency system would have a credible unit of account as their anchor.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/wanniski111897.html

Date: Tue Nov 18 1997 01:34
JTF ( @Home BART KITNER - please look at this before you decide what to do! ) ID#57232:
Bart Kitner: Hope you see this post. A few hours ago ( yesterday ) we had some posts that clearly
indicate that there are knowledgable individuals who wish to frequent this site, but cannot afford to let
their names known.

JTF ( or anyone else ) if there was a interesting post last night please repost, I would like not to have to browse my way through all that sewage that was dropped on us last night,if possible.

Everybody who visits this site should look at the article in the Vronsky 9:26 post. It is an eye opener for sure, no matter what you think about gold.

All:

Glad to see that the pest control team has asserted its strength.

The Korean situation is certainly worsening and should come to a head in fairly short order. It appears that the central bank has abandoned its support of the Won. This may be a calculated play or alternatively may mean that they have plain run out of chips. It is interesting to note that several of the news stories now circulating mention that the CB of Korea may ask for a loan from other CB's most prominently the Fed. The intriguing portion is not so much that they are asking for loans but that they are trying to circumvent the IMF. Recall, that Indonesia also tried and perhaps succeeded in getting around the IMF. My guess is that the IMF money comes with more strings than a straight CB loan.

This next shoe dropping is going to be a big one, but will probably end the contagion at least in the currency arena. Japan will be under severe pressure to devalue but they will do so in a slow and measured way. They have the funds and the backing ( US ) to make sure that things do not get out of hand. In addition, I believe that their culture is more suited to enduring pain in an orderly fashion. This is evident in the latest bank fiasco which did not produce a run. Imagine if this same news about a bank insolvency hit in some other part of the world. The mob would be foaming. The reason that I believe that the meltdown is going to end in Korea is that the rest of Southeast Asia does not appear to be reentering the liquidation phase. Other than Malaysia the other currencies are not threatening their panic lows. If they can withstand the shock of Korea the worst is probably over.

If things settle down after Korea, what will be the implications? After a period of watching and waiting, I believe that the Fed will be obligated to raise rates in the US. Whether they will or not is certainly in question. Other than the fragility of the markets there is no good reason for the Fed not to raise rates. Every pre-inflationary indicator that a forward looking central bank could use to help in the formulation of monetary policy is screaming for a tightening. Against this array of statistics will be massive political opposition.

The biggest surprise of 1998 will be a worldwide uptick in inflation. Inflation is in large part a monetary phenomenon. In so far as money is being created at a torid pace it must flow through into asset prices. Since the one way nature of stocks has been called into question of late it is likely that this asset class will not be the one to benefit in the near future.

I leave it for others to speculate upon which other asset classes will be enjoying the soothing flow of liquidity.

I am testing

Registration will be too costly. Instead we will be looking forward to
keeping explicit obnoxious posters out by closure of the site one
hour at a time. For every obnoxious poster the site will close for
one hour. Although I have to admit some of the posts had me rolling.
Lets keep the site interesting. There is nothing wrong with a good laugh now and then.

Yahoo's Asian markets all down, some considerably, except for Japan. Sounds like many investors there do not believe the fix. Just very temporary. Hold on.

I know I speak for many who sincerely applaud your decision, which takes into account a host of influencing factors! Thank you.

French backing

President Chirac supports proposal for currency
trading rules

By Zuhrin Azam Ahmad and Derrick Vinesh


LANGKAWI: French President Jacques Chirac yesterday pledged full support for Malaysia's
proposal for the introduction of regulations for currency trading.

Chirac called for prudential rules to curb what he termed as the "law of the jungle" in excessive
currency speculations.

Chirac said he had always spoken out against speculations causing negative indications in financial areas.

"Excessive speculation by some currency traders should be brought under control.

STRESSING POINT...Chirac expressing full support for currency trading rules during a joint press conference with Dr. Mahathir in Langkawi yesterday.

"We have to find prudential rules that would avoid this law of the jungle as it is in everybody's interest, especially the poor of the world," he said during a joint press conference with Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Chirac said IMF managing director Michel Camdessus's idea to commission studies on the basis laid by Malaysia to seek ways to regulate currency trading would allow control on such activities.

"It should be done with the co-operation between IMF, Malaysia and other countries involved," he said, adding he believed it would bring the situation under control.

The French President also expressed full confidence in the economic future of Southeast Asia, particularly Malaysia.

"Compared to other countries affected by the currency crisis, Malaysia had the advantage of being managed in such a manner that it had a very solid future," he said.
He shared Camdessus' view that Malaysia does not need outside help and even if it was affected by problems faced by its neighbours, it was evident that Malaysia was not in a precarious situation.

Dr Mahathir said Chirac agreed that there should be regulations in currency trading so that there would not be an anarchy.

"Chirac is not saying that we should restrict but there should not be an anarchy, ( such as ) being able to raise 20 times your capital through leverage.

"That's something that needs to be investigated by the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) ," he said.

More than 100 journalists, including those from French television, radio and news organisations, had earlier packed the Dewan Andaman conference room here where the joint press conference was held.

Earlier, Dr Mahathir held a two-hour meeting with Chirac, who flew here for a working visit on Sunday.

Dr Mahathir said Chirac also agreed that the Group of 15 ( G15  developing countries ) be represented when the Group of Seven ( G7  industrialised countries ) discussed the currency issue.

"Chirac believes that the G15 and G7 must have a closer relation because whatever the G7
decided had an implication on the G15," Dr Mahathir said. To a question that Japan was supposed to speak on behalf of Asia at G7, Dr Mahathir said: "We have already talked to Japan whenever there is a G7 meeting but now, we have France pushing in the same direction."

Bart - Can't we all just drop and give you Twenty ( pushups for all the slowBugs ) . It seems that some posters would not mind shutting this place down. And as for the 'anonymous' posters...get over it mystery dudes. You are not that important OR mysterious. I will live if you all don't post again.

Now....for practice.......

EVERYONE!!! DROP AND GIVE BART TWENTY!!!! AND FOR ALL THE FAT DUDES/GALS....MAKE IT THIRTY!!! you will thank Bart in the end. And remember...this hurts him much more than it hurts us.

Thanks Bart!! Go GOLD!!!!

away...to shave my head...hoooowaaa!!!!!



lgb-i love you where are you

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/korea_reform_imf_1.html

I've only been watching and occasionally posting inanity for about three months + or --.
One thing or "non-event" I have not seen addressed on this forum or on the ether is the much
spoken of "New Money".
It purportedly has been in preparation for several years. A recall of the old Green Stamps and
replacement with the Red stuff.

With the debauching of many fiat currencies on the planet, and with preparations already having
been made to instate the new stuff, methinks it behooves us to think of what we'd do if such a
thing were to come to pass.
Paranoid, I agree, but a question worthy of the asking.Worthy of consideration as well and a not
too fanciful stretch of the imagination.

Could all the downward presssure on gold have been done to enable a STRICT control over
ownership of it? A devaluation of it is more easily accomplished simultaneous with the
introduction of a new GLOBAL fiat curency, backed by GOLD.
Any of we who own it can be readily identified if we attempt to use it in commerce. Merely
another Paranoid thought.
Having read a lot of the material re: conspiracies, I finally ( about two tears ago ) came to the
conclusion it was merely an extension of the "Good ol' Boys" syndrome we in Arkansas have
labored under for so long.
Posters on this site have made several references to "business as usual". I believe the
statement encapsulates the basic problem.
Business as usual for the internationalists of necessity means the curtailment of FREEDOMS
and RIGHTS of the "Masses".

Marx has been identified as a tool for monied interests, as were many of the Russian leaders in
the uprising against the Czar. Behind them all was a source of finance which is to this day
perpetuated by the exponents of business as usual.
We now have some wild cards such as the Muslim oil countries and the muslims who hate the
west as a matter of custom. ( the way they were reared as children )
I believe I've said quite enough to exemplify my point re: the new monetary system for the New
World Order.

STRAIGHT UP BOYS

Major markets seem to be stabilizing in preparation for an end of year rally [Dow to 8000+?]. Looks like gold will have to wait until next year [...as a Cubs fan, I find that soooo easy to say]. I'm switching to 80% equities, 20% cash, 0% gold for now unless Greenspan does something stupid...

See ya latter dudes!!!!! and be GOOD while I'm gone!

I haven't heard the "red money" story since the late 1970's. Always good for a laugh.

Bottom fishing. Just bought some ECO at 2 and 3\8.

Tolerant you are right on about the US attitude. Even our president is behaving as an ugly American, especially at economic summits like at Denver and Madrid. He speaks of the US being at the "pinnacle of power". He and America is completely deluded IMHO.

Iraq is a prime example. We may have won a battle, but we did not win a war. We never had control of the air space below stinger altitude. Bush was afraid ( even now giving more excuses ) that under stinger cover in urban areas of Bagdad it would have been Nam all over.

By the way, the whole Gulf war was a setup IMHO. Taking out a loose dictator which we installed, armed ( including the anthrax, right George? ) and supported up until he becomes inconvenient and we turn on him is a scenario which seems to repeat. No wonder we're the Great Satan.

From CIA asset to pentagon target, it takes about 10 to 15 years. What a nice way to keep the military industrial complex humming.

I'm sure that gold is not far from the minds of the pentagon planners as they plan how to divide the booty from the next war.

You're right about isolationism too. George Washington ( beware foreign entanglements ) would be rolling in his grave to see a carrier bearing his name interferring in the Persian Gulf.

BTW, the British did take Kuwait from Iraq, its historically theirs. Let them have it.

Savage - Did you sell or did you let it ride?? When will the profit taking begin?? Do you have calls or futures?? If calls you might consider selling some calls against your positions and turn the 'free trade'. It will keep your account in tact and give you $$ potential if the rally continues...but then you know this stuff...sorry ;- )

Ted - a low level 1 intermediate range ballistic ( bean ) burrrrito wafting in your vacinity. Prepare for touch down...it won't be pretty. Save the wimmin' and doggies...

All - ready for more pushups?? We are just getting started. We will have this crew ship-shape in double time!! hooooya!!

go gold

away...to take some profits...oh my...

eautiful$$

EBedazzled: Thank you also for OJ rec. You seem to be a good trader... I hope that you are still open to learning new principles. I wouldn't like to see you get hurt if your "friend" ( the trend ) turns on you suddenly. One thing that I've learned ( very costly lesson ) is hedge every position...even if just against catastrophe...have reverse option ( s ) in place.

I am researching to write a novel on global manipulatory forces which effect stocks vs. gold. After lurking on this site for 6 months, and on the techstocks stoctalk site ( http://www.techstocks.com ) for about 6 months, I suspect that the loss of gold as a safe haven is more than just a coincidence. Can anyone direct me to a good source ( apart from the gold-eagle site ) -- a book perhaps, which explains the structure of global markets/currency trading/CB involvement/IMF involvement? Thanks to anyone who can help...
p.s. IV stands for "intrinsic value".

BART: Thank you also for fine site. It does seem to me though, if you shut the site down an hour for every obnoxious poster, it will be down an awful lot...and they will have obtained their objective...to shut us down.

Tolerant: thank you for your 8:56 post. that is a great site.

A recently released commentary on gold.

www.the-privateer.com/g-bottom/g-bottom.html

EB or Anyone: I understood Bart to mean the site would ONLY be closed to the Obnoxious Poster for one hour, but not the rest. Did I mis-understand??

Knowing from reading your past posts that this one was not derisive, I ask you to fill me and others in on the complete Red Money story from the 70s.
Any comment re: suject matter of my original post will be appreciated also.
Glad to be able to draw on such a pool of intellect as we have here at kitco ( :+^}[

Gold Update
Gold Commentary ( November 14, 1997 )

In any discussion of the future of Gold, or of the price of Gold, the first thing that must be realized is that Gold is a political metal. In the true
meaning of the word, its price is "governed". This is true for the very simple reason that Gold in its historical role as a currency is
fundamentally incompatible with the modern worldwide financial system.

Up until August 15, 1971, there has never in history been an era when no paper currency was linked to Gold. The history of money is replete
with instances of coin clipping, printing, debt defaults, and the other attendant ills of currency debasement. In all other eras of history, people
could always escape to other currencies, whose Gold backing remained intact. But since 1971, there is no escape because no paper currency has
any link to Gold.

All of the economic, monetary, and financial upheaval of the past 25 years is a direct result of this fact.

The global paper currency system is very young. It depends for its continued functioning on the belief that the debt upon which it is based will,
someday, be repaid. The one thing, above all others, that could shake that faith, and therefore the foundations of the modern financial system
itself, is a rise ( especially a sharp rise ) in the U.S. Dollar price of Gold.


Gold - Commentary
Posted on November 14, 1997

Oh, hey, Kuston - You'll be happy to know
that Ken Griffey, Jr. won the AL MVP this
year, and that his '89 Upper Deck RC is
now $100 high Beckett. This is a 25% jump
from July. I have yet to receive your
shipment of "worthless" Ken Griffey, Jr.
'89 UD cards, which I am now willing
to pay $15 for, even though they are
worthless. Please make sure the
corners aren't bent and the card
is well-centered.

Your pal

P.S. Gold is down 17% in the same time
frame.

I don't think "1 hour BART" is BART.

Vronsky - this is the first time in a long time
you've posted a message without an appended
link to your site. Doncha feel kinda naked?

On gold, oh where can it be?

Stephen - You promised us a prediction.
I cannot find it anywhere.

Two fridays ago, were you saying gold
would go to $280? Or are you with
Bernatz at $305. Or do you have something
else to say? Mooney, I've got an office
full of reporters climbing the walls.
They need a story. They are depending
on you.

Thanks Savage,

My positions in gold have all been closed. I am waiting for a nice rally to put on a nice skirt ( i'll try the chiffon number next, it's so cute ;- ) ) . If gold rallies to 310+ range and 'hangs out' for a moment than I'm on the phone. I am an options trader. It will be very hard for me to get burned on this gold thing. And I will be right on top if gold wakes it's ass up. Or, I will miss the boat...oh well...their will be dips on it's way to $500.00...or will it go straight up...hmmmmmmmmmm...

I agree with you regarding the hedges. Many a good profit has been taken out of an explosive move beforehand. But then many a good profit has been secured before the bottom drops out. I set goals and I rarely abuse them. My greed has mellowed. Now I don't want it all NOW...I can WAIT before i get it all ;- ) ) ) . I only suggest hedging partially and let other calls ride. I have been watching OJ/JO ALL summer and It has beaten me until now ( I have 'realized' profit ) ...hmmmmm...sound familiar gold bugs?? well.....don't get too attached to HOPE and PRAYERS.

HOOOOOYAAA!!

away...to minimize losses...

learning...!h M!...

Goldbeater: Not sure whether you posted "the-privateer" to answer my question or not, but it is exactly the kind of think I'm looking for. Thanks.

Amidst the currency chaos, mounting debt debris and stock market turmoil ravaging all-Asia, a voice emerges which goes to the core of the problems. John Kutyns observations and insights ring with Churchillian logic and clarity. In painful detail he paints the problems plaguing Asia... and with oracle eyes he foresees the havoc to be wrought before economic stability may be restored. His poignant observations regarding Japans forced action in US Treasuries and Gold will soon prove to be prophetic:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn111597.html

This is copied from an SI thread and reportedly is from a 4-page supplement included with Elaine Garzarelli's latest newsletter:

Blanchard ( editor of Gold Newsletter for 26 years ) says ". . . the

information I have just gained is amoung the most important I have ever

passed along to clients and subscribers." We all know about the

aggressive shorting of gold, but Blanchard says he has learned that short

positions are "ten times or more what is reported on the Comex." An

even larger short position was created by "thousands of tons of gold

borrowed from central bank reserves by bullion banks and sold into the

market." Much of the gold is sold simply as short-sale speculation,

which they are required to pay back at some point. If the price rises

they must buy.

Now here it gets interesting. "Until a few days ago, every player in the

market believed the the cumulative amount of gold loaned by central

banks was between 2500 and 3000 tons," figures reported by Gold

Fields Mineral Services, and an amount that would be "manageable"

while large. Blanchard says he has just received research from "the

world-renowned analyst Frank Veneroso indicating that the borrowed

gold is larger . . . much larger . . . than anyone suspects . . . more than

6500 tons . . . and perhaps more than 8000 tons."

Just days after the Veneroso research became public knowledge, the

gold lease rate soared 81%. "In recent years this has always led to a

spike in gold prices." Some of Blanchard's sources are reporting fear of

market chaos amoung central bankers. Blanchard says demand is huge,

far larger than production, and sales of tons of accelerated gold supply

are the only thing keeping the price down. "Somebody is buying all that

gold," he says, and demand cannot be met without forward sales.

When the lease rate reaches 3% forward sales are seriously curtailed. In

1995 it reached 5% and the price of gold went to $414. The lease rate

has recently gone to 4%. This means the market is already tight now,

even before the usual year-end rise. He advises increasing holdings now,

especially old coins.

The Privateer looks at Gold as a "reverse barometer". The lower the Gold price falls, the stormier the seas on paper markets become.
That is a quote from the commentary posted here on Nov. 7. The stormiest seas of all right now are washing over the Tokyo stock market.
According to a report in the Australian Financial Review, at a level of 15,075 on the Nikkei, the top 20 Japanese banks are staring at a level of
reserves of precisely zero. On Nov. 14, the Nikkei closed at 15,083! They don't have what One could call a lot of breathing space!

It is Gold against the Dollar. As long as the Dollar holds up, and as long as Treasury long bond yields continue to fall, the financial world is
sticking with Dollar denominated assets as their ultimate "safety". Watch for one or both to weaken as a lead indicator that it's time to start
watching the Gold price for evidence of a bottom.

Looks like the up tick in gold has broken the kito bullion indicators. I guess that tells us how long gold has been in a down trend. First day gold has a little rally and kitoc's indicator breaks... Now that's got to be a good sign.

To all: Positive comments on gold price from James Blanchard.

This is from a 4-page supplement included with Elaine Garzarelli's latest newsletter:

Blanchard ( editor of Gold Newsletter for 26 years ) says ". . . the information I have
just gained is amoung the most important I have ever passed along to clients and
subscribers." We all know about the aggressive shorting of gold, but Blanchard says he
has learned that short positions are "ten times or more what is reported on the Comex."
An even larger short position was created by "thousands of tons of gold borrowed
from central bank reserves by bullion banks and sold into the market." Much of the
gold is sold simply as short-sale speculation, which they are required to pay back at
some point. If the price rises they must buy.

Now here it gets interesting. "Until a few days ago, every player in the market believed
the the cumulative amount of gold loaned by central banks was between 2500 and
3000 tons," figures reported by Gold Fields Mineral Services, and an amount that
would be "manageable" while large. Blanchard says he has just received research from
"the world-renowned analyst Frank Veneroso indicating that the borrowed gold is
larger . . . much larger . . . than anyone suspects . . . more than 6500 tons . . . and
perhaps more than 8000 tons."

Just days after the Veneroso research became public knowledge, the gold lease rate
soared 81%. "In recent years this has always led to a spike in gold prices." Some of
Blanchard's sources are reporting fear of market chaos amoung central bankers.
Blanchard says demand is huge, far larger than production, and sales of tons of
accelerated gold supply are the only thing keeping the price down. "Somebody is
buying all that gold," he says, and demand cannot be met without forward sales.

When the lease rate reaches 3% forward sales are seriously curtailed. In 1995 it
reached 5% and the price of gold went to $414. The lease rate has recently gone to
4%. This means the market is already tight now, even before the usual year-end rise.
He advises increasing holdings now, especially old coins.

I was stationed at Ramstein Air Base ( Germany ) 1977-1980, when the $US plunged from 3DM/$ to 1.6DM/$, and gold and silver ran beserk. The $US was the laughing stock of Europe. My buddies and I heard rumors the US gov't was planning to retire the "green" and release new gold-backed "red" currency, which would be equivalent to the green stuff with two zeroes lopped off, in order to restore confidence. ( similar to what the Israelis did when they changed from the Lira ( Israeli pound ) to the Shekel.

Mr. Zurich of Epstein and Co. is gettin bullish...hmmmmm...don't get too yippie. I follow this guy. He is just a broker...and brokers mostly answer phones...no disrespect to all the 'good' brokers here or there or ANYWHERE.

http://www.iepstein.com/mletters/options/options.html

$280...ridiculous...maybe...maybe NOT


Hey HepCatRat ( test ) - So....what will it be...gold 280 or gold 320...or what. Are you sticking to 290 in Dec?? If you are then I'm calling the broker...NOW! You go Dude!!

Savage - It looks like some savage profit taking in OJ is happening...right NOW...uh huh.

away...to maximize gains
alwayslearning...uh huh.

EB ( pant puff ) You sure are hard on us Kitcoites. I haven't done pushups since my army days ( a year or two ago ) .

Bart, thank you for this great site.

38F here, fog this morning, we should have sun by 11:00.

Looks like the markets are steady. Hope they stay that way, two many pension funds are invested in the markets now. If there is a "crash" a lot of older people will suffer.

I can`t get excited about positive gold news from Blanchard.Give me positive news from a Central Bank official or the Japanese government. Or Greenspan.

Bart, Sir: ftp://ftp.kitco.com/pub/discussion/ is no longer available for uploading GIF files. How do we upload files now?

This story is not good news!

http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/get32.exe

MIKEHARRY: I do not think the technical aspects of the borrowed gold market alone will cause gold to necessarily increase in price, but rather the significance is that if there is a surprise in the fundamental outlook in gold, the technical fuel is present for a very sharp rally that could take everyone by surprise. Thus, one should keep this in mind when investing and particularly, one should watch the lease rates and the trend thereof.

LONDON, Nov 18 ( Reuters ) - Gold refused to budge from a narrow price range in early European trading on Tuesday and dealers said the market was taking a break after last week's stunning drop to 12-1/2 year lows.

"We've seen some two-way business at $303-$304 but not much else is going on this morning," a dealer said.

"The market seems to be on hold after the activity of last week," he added, referring to the yellow metal's slide to the psychological $300 level.

Gold fixed in the centre of its broader $302-$306 price range at $303.65 per ounce -- just 10 cents down from the Monday afternoon fixing.

Technical indicators show the gold market is oversold and a short-term consolidation phase is probably in order despite the market's overwhelmingly bearish feel, analysts said.

A break above $306 would target $308, but afterwards prices would likely drift back down. An eventual decline to the 1985 low of $285 is possible, analysts say.

"Gold touched $300 last week but lacked the momentum to push through. There's been reasonable physical offtake all the way down and it may need more bearish news or a significant sell order to get below there," a dealer said.

Concern about central banks selling reserves have depressed the gold market all year. Prices hit fresh lows last week after the Bundesbank said it had been lending some of its reserves to the market.

Other precious metals were neutral to slightly softer.

Silver has performed well despite gold's woes, boosted by speculative buying. But prices were easing back towards support at $5.10 and without fresh interest would slide back to $5.00, dealers said.

Prices were last indicated five cents lower at $5.11/$5.13.

Platinum was down another $2.00 at $385.00/$387.00 after a month of steady declines from the $440 area.

But the 14-day RSI technical indicator was just below the 30 percent level, indicating the market was oversold and ready for consolidation or a bounce.

Palladium was virtually unchanged at $206.00/$208.00.

06:16 11-18-97

Snoop - I suspect that if & when "super currency" is introduced that it can only come after hyper-inflation has retired the national debt and much domestic strife. Otherwise it would be too big a political issue for the masses ( you & me ) to accept ( people voted out of office ) . This is end game stuff.

This story is not good news!

http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/get32.exe

This url may work better.

http://www.futuresource.com/metal.html

EB: I don't know your broker but I see no reason to have gold turn around here. If there is trouble in Iraq and gold doesn't react--my guess-- then my prediction of $250 is going to look optimistic. We have the Asian problem and we have the US getting ready to dump some end-of- shelve life missiles on Sadam --and gold doesn't care. Why would it go up? Why will it not continue to fall?

tylerrose: your url is incorrect, please repost

Unemployment low/inflation low. High market volatility/low price of gold. Japanese banking crisis/Nikkei heads up. GNP grows/real wages decline. Tiger economy/currency crisis. U.S.debt explosion/low inflation.

All this only makes sense when viewing the United States as an economy in transition from producer oriented to consumer oriented. Is it sustainable? Will declining overseas prices make up for declining U.S. wages forever? Will the Federal Reserve be able to control inflation/interest rates for as long as the $6 trillion debt exists? If not, what happens to the corresponding savings when bonds prices decline? Will the U.S. Government be able to insure that much?

Have we just exported our inflation overseas? Can we have a global two tiered price system after Asia deflates?

Steve

NICK LAIRD: Your 00:11 Touche!! A brilliant read.

Prudent, it is odd that confidence in the dollar persists despite the fact that investment in long-term bonds is essentially investment in enormous debt...the confidence must come from a belief in the nation's ability to work around this debt. I read somewhere that the number of credit dollars outstanding in the US economy relative to the number of actual printed dollars was in the order of thousands to one...but as long as CONFIDENCE is sustained ( or is it simply ignorance? ) , the whole thing just keeps rolling along.

Selby: The reason gold should rise in price is "VALUE". Gold is under-valued in relation to the amount of paper outstanding in the world. This is completely opposite to the situation in stocks and bonds -- which are both grossly over-valued.

To keep gold down, continual massive selling pressure ( by central banks and institutions leasing gold ) must be exerted on the gold market. Otherwise, gold will rise -- and rather dramatically.

Check out XAU 5 minute chart at Quote Com:
http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?symbols=$xau.x&time_period=5-minute%20Bars&bars=420?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=&mode=5-Minute%20Chart
Sure looks like upside down H&S with breakout and return to neckline.

Agreed.

away
ewarned

Absolutely, and consumer confidence is at 127.1 on the index, the last two times this index reached over 110 was in Augus 87 and October 72 --right before the stock market collapsed 35% and 45% respectively, this is a foreboding sign, ...that consumer confidence is really an overinflated balloon, a "faith and hope" indice, with direct inverse relationship to reality!

Cynic: Clinton may have some "ugly American" features but the rest of the world is still getting over the Panama caper. Imagine invading a neighbour murdering approximately 2000 of its citizens kidnapping the president and justifying by saying it good for drug traffic -- in your country.

That was the eye opener the rest of the world needed.

Coming soon to a COMEX near you- An explosive upmove in gold!

PETER LYNCH, former head of Fidelity Magellan Fund, who made it the
greatest fund on the planet bar none, tells a compelling reason in
his article, " WHY BUY GOLD IN THIS ECONOMY", in the November issue
of WORTH magazine.
Lynch is one of the smartest people on Wall Street, and only an idiot
would fail to comprehend his reasoning on the future of gold.
Paying attention to Lynch over the years has fattened many a persons
bank account.

Hey Mr. Puetz--address your comments to other readers. I do not read your posts.

My good sir: I believe you mean, forewarned!

My take on Dale Henderson's statement is that it is expressly intended to give a neg impact on gold ( jawboning ) . He didn't say US is going to sell, but rather, you others sell and hurry up. What do you think of his statement that CBs now have 20% of the known gold - I thought it was over 30%!

Rose, you sound like a broke record. Tell us something we don't know.
Do you live in a closet. CB's threaten every week to sell gold.
Time for lunch, before you make me choke.

IV: I suggest that you read "Money Meltdown" by Judy Shelton. Glad you asked. I am going to re-read it myself.

Can anyone explain why DKT's price is still holding on? ( Not that I'm complaining! )
Just read PGU's sob story. Glad I decided to stay clear of that one.
http://sec.yahoo.com/e/97/11/14/pgu.html
This next one from Sunday may be old news, but here it goes.
"Gold price crash seen putting mines on the brink"
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971116/gold_price_crash_see_1.html
Pretty grim.
NICK: Hope none of your "little darlings" are on the OZ casualty list.

Skylark: If Blanchard's figure is correct ( 8000 tonnes of gold have been leased out from central banks ) , that is equal to 256 million ounces. The official IMF figures show that Central Banks only hold about 895 million ounces of gold. In other words, they may have loaned out 29% of their gold. That means CB's only hold 640 millions ounces in their vaults. I view such a large number of leased gold as extremely bullish to the gold market.

Lookin' more and more like Nov 14 action in Au was exhaustion gap.

Platinum ain't doin' too shabby either - - up 5 bucks!

When I said 'I follow this guy', referring to Zurich, I meant that I read his stuff. I WILL NOT follow this guy to battle. JAPOC ( just a point of clarification ) .

This gold will rally and Karlito and LGB will, again, have called the obvious...yeah!! Three Cheers!! BUT, gold will then linger and set itself up for the BIG break below the 'water-line'. And it will set its sights for a new 'water-line'...more like the 'Mendoza' line...oh my!!

away...to put on my floaters

gonetowork

hey Hep, tell 'em who Mendoza is for me...TIA ( thanks in advance? )

Gold, no doubt about it there is a lot of the stuff around. Seems we are caught with a major overhang controlled by govenments which are caught up with the mass euphoria of a bullish stock market. Everyone looks good in a bull market. But how long can the bulls run? On the other hand, the miners have been busily placing mines in production many of which are uneconomic at todays prices. Most of the mines, which still produce a major portion of the worlds gold are uneconmic and would have closed long ago if not subsidized. All of the gold mines could discontinue producing and it would take some time to lap up all of the overhang. So what is it all about Alfie. Is gold a commodity which has seen its day. It "Good as gold" as passe as "You could no longer do that than go to the moon" or "He did not have a Chinaman's chance." You don't hear those expressions anymore.

Real estate in Japan,I have heard, was equal to the value of all real estate in the U.S. I do not know that I really believed that, but it was very high and is now worth about half what it was, probably still to high. All of this was financed. How can their banks eat all of that real estate. They can't afford to foreclose. They have to be cooking the books. But the camel seems to have its nose under the tent with several of the Tigers experiencing similar trouble. There is a scent of blood in the air. Something big is brewing. Can it be that we will return to basic vales and gold will emerge once more as a safe haven or have we reached a point of sophistication where paper can be backed by paper with full confidence that our governments will insure that the financial ship stays afloat.

EB: Understood. Here is something I found on SI that might be of interest to Japan watchers:

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971117/yen_demand_to_grow_i_1.html

murrstein its you lgb i love you come to mama you strong boy i love how you hate i got the right whip for you yum yum yummy oh lets have lunch some nice cucumber mmmmm salad

To Donald, thanks for the "Money Meltdown" tip; will check it out. I've also heard of a title called "The Silent Coup", corporations vs. govt. I believe is the subject, but have not read it yet. This is of particular relevance to Canada.

Had not heard of the "confidence index"...is this a US govt. produced index and if so where is it accessible? Thanks...

EB:

I'm not Hep, but the Mendoza line is a baseball term named after a weak hitting shortstop. I believe .200 is the Mendoza Line, and I get the point.

Thanks,
Dave

Does anyone know what their reserve requirements are? What sorts of assets count towards their reserves? Also, did anyone have any knowledge about how this all shakes out for the average Japanese man on the street?
Steve

On the Bema thread, #8508, is an explanation as to why this stock dropped so dramactically. There has been no news released on the company during this period...the mine itself is apparently not the cause of the decline, but rather the PR of the company. This may be the time to buy.

Does anyone know what effect the Great Depression had on gold prices? Also on gold mining?

I'm curious as to whether the deflation it appears we're headed into would be positive or negative for gold, and why. It seems as though a clue to this would be whatever happened to gold during the Great Depression.

Thanks.

PUETZ: Thanks for the informative reply. In the event you missed it, this is the disclosure that Blanchard referred to. Obviously, I do not know the reliability of the statistics, but the street has apparently not given much credence or significance to the news as far as any price action so far. As typical in a bear market, no favorable news seems to positively affect gold while any minor negative news does.

Gold Newsletter: Bundesbank Gold Loan Disclosure

Supports Veneroso's Ground-Breaking Research

`Global Gold Market Deficit Is 700 Tonnes Larger Than Consensus

Estimates - Aggregate Short Position Too Large To Be Covered'

NEW YORK, Nov. 12 /PRNewswire/ -- The following is being issued by Gold

Newsletter:

Noted international gold market analyst Frank Veneroso said today that Bundesbank

disclosure of massive gold loans ``confirms our view that the global gold market deficit is

700 tonnes larger than consensus estimates and that the aggregate short position in the

gold market is too large to be covered... This is the beginning of a reappraisal of the

gold

market that will slowly unfold...''

Veneroso said that the very large amount of current gold forward sales, short sales and

central bank gold loans is forcing a day of reckoning in which the demand for gold to

cover all of these positions will overwhelm current supplies, greatly disrupt orderly

markets and send gold's price soaring. This analysis springs from Veneroso's ongoing

study of actual central bank gold loans which, he has concluded, are materially higher

than official estimates.

Veneroso's research shows that official and private gold loans total 8,000 tonnes, far more

than the 3,000 tonnes that most analysts project. To put this in perspective, annual global

production of gold is approximately 2,400 tonnes. This research has been developed and

reported over the months in Gold Watch, a fax advisory service published by Veneroso,

and in Gold Newsletter, an investment newsletter published by James U. Blanchard III,

based in Jefferson, Louisiana.

Germany's central bank, long recognized as one of the strongest supporters of gold in the

central banking community, has just disclosed to a German newspaper that it has loaned

on the order of 10 percent of its gold reserves to the market.

This admission, long suspected by Veneroso but not proven until now, supports his

findings of huge central bank gold loans overhanging the market.

Regarding the recent crash of the gold price, Veneroso attributes ``mad dog selling'' by

European central banks which are anticipating new gold sales rules and prohibitions to be

established by the emerging European Central Bank in April 1998. European central

banks are taking their last opportunity to dress up their books for admission to the

European Monetary Union by selling gold.

The balance of Veneroso's research and findings will appear in a comprehensive new

annual study of the gold market, The Gold Book, to be published by Gold Newsletter and

Veneroso Associates in January 1998.

Selby, Crystal Ball and others:

This en thing IS shaping up nicely. All these 'good' things being said about it. Did crystal notice the Possible island-reversal yesterday?? Now look back at the Mark...nice sharp trough ( or V if you will ) . These currencies have not been taking to hanging around bottoms or tops too long. Was it tw or rmw or one of those guys who has the en calls?? HOLD 'em if ya' got 'em. Buy 'em if ya' don't...oh my...

But I could be wrong and en could tank...like it should...

do your homework...and then go out to play...

AWAY...
late


DaveInCo - you win the prize...both times...

I don't know the specifics, but Mendoza was a middling
infielder in the professional baseball ranks ( or maybe
a middling outfielder, it doesn't matter ) whose lifetime
career batting average ( could have been a catcher, still
doesn't matter ) was a stellar .200

Thus, when major league players ( usually slumping, or
next stop farm team ) today are hitting at this
clip, they are said to be approaching the Mendoza line.

EB - I am officially handing the prediction mantle over
to Stephen Mooney, since it is clear he will steal or
appropriate all the accolades for himself anyway.
I never made the $290 prediction, or the $250 prediction
which people posting under my handle made for me.
The "$300 soon, very soon" prediction was mine, and
when Stephen took the spotlight for himself, I decided
to go into hiatus. For the time being, I am predicting
exactly the OPPOSITE of whatever Stephen Mooney predicts,
which is why I'm so anxious ( along with thousands of
reporters and newsletters writers everywhere ) for
his prediction. Although this is posted in the spirit
of fun, I am being serious when I say I am sick and tired
of Mr. Mooney taking credit where none is due. Last
Friday, someone posted "what is going on with gold?"
and Stephen took this as a cue that everyone was
singing his praises. Again, nothing out of the ordinary,
remember the "I held the ball on kickoffs" approach
that Stephen takes whenever he has to insert himself into a
conversation that he is not a part of, but if I'm
not going to get any credit and you're not going to
get any credit for a string of spot-on calls, then I'm
not going to be real generous with someone who posts
"Looks like gold is going down to $280, of course,
if it holds at $308, it could go to $320" and then
when gold hits $300, starts showering himself with
rose petals and has the audacity to state he was the
first to think of this.

good ol' boy

Here is an exerpt from Michael Lewis' The Money Culture 1991


I asked Mikuni about Tai ( a property speculator ) ..."I am not an expert in Ponzi schemes," he said with an enormous grin, and then went on to explain, with more than a beginners' flair just how in Japan $20 m can be parlayed into $600m. Borrow $20m against the land on which the love hotel ( $12.50 per hour ) is situated. Take that $20m and buy shares. Deposit shares at the bank in exchange for money. Use the money to buy more shares....and so on. How many times, I asked Mikuni, can a speculator recycle his original stake? "As many times as he wants," he said, since the banks cannot be certain what he is doing. All they see is a man with collateral asking to borrow money."


it is all done with mirrors and string

aurator

All: Please look as USAgold's comments today - interesting info on COMEX gold positions. Click on the daily report part to get 1/18/97 opinion.

http://www.usagold.com/default.html

Yesterday I did predict that with the Dow failing to
hold 7700 and Venus in apogee and the waning moon, blahblahblah,
that gold would jump all the way to $306.50. Of course,
once again I was way off in my Dow prediction, this time
of a complete wipeout at the open. That was thus my
most recent prediction until Stephen Mooney makes his
next one, which again will be the OPPOSITE of whatever
he posits. I'm still waiting.

( Sometimes you have to wait literally months for Stephen
to respond to specific questions, and even then
he may not address the questions directly or even tangentially.
He wouldn't make a very good interview, even though thousands
of reporters hang on his every word. )

D.A. Another thought for your currency considerations. What effect will a yen devaluation have on the various "yen carry" positions out there?

My take is that this play will start to explode and while it is expanding will be bullish for US bonds and/or the S&P500 ( which I suspect a lot of the yen carry money may have gone into rather than bonds given the better "yields" ) . So far this trade has been a winner, gaining on bonds and currency. But I cringe to think how huge this play must now be....

And the place stinks to high heaven....do we need a petition to get the place investigated?
I think more than few people have more than few reasons to seriously disrupt this site at any cost.

JTF : Thanks. Everyone should read the report. I for one am convinced that some Nick Leesons would eventually show up in the gold market.

Aurator: Your 13:35 beats any Arkansas Whitewater scheme I know hands down! Looks like the process you describe would be limited by how much stock shares were available. I guess when you run out, the company just issues more shares. The sky's the limit. Hopefully they stopped doing this in 1980. Gee -- I wonder !!

FOR THE RECORD...Steve was correct in his assesment that the Nov 18 10:16 post was not mine. Although the idea to shut the site down after every obnoxious post would save considerable bandwidth.

No instructions necessary for registration. You'll know how when its time.

Do you think if people in power wanted to disrupt this site
at any cost, their best approach would be to post dialogue
from "Boogie Nights"? under a variety of handles? Don't
you think instead they would, oh, I don't know, pull the
plug on the ISP, or publish the home addresses and phone
numbers of contributors they wanted to chase away? If they
are so all-powerful, why would they hire three or four
agitators and say "go to it, post a lot of jumbled nonsense,
and try to distinguish it from the jumbled nonsense
of the regulars"?

"Whom the gods would destroy, they first make to seem foolish"

Think about it.

Think about the concept of opinion control.

Think about disinformation as a well-advanced science.

AND GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO GOLD! BANE OF THE WORLD BANKING CABAL!

COMEX DOOMSDAY COUNTDOWN CONTINUES .......

now that would really give reuters something to look at....wouldn't it test?

Intra-Day charts displaying the days price trend of the most representative of financial assets and real assets. One may thus appreciate the day's relative price movement of DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ, DJUA, versus XAU, HUI, GOLD, SILVER PLATINUM & PALLADIUM. In effect you are on the "virtual trading floor" of each:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/intra-day.html

John Thompkins: Go to http://www.gold-eagle.com look for the 1929 and Gold Stocks article.

IV: Consumer Confidence Index is Univ. of Michigan out of Ann Arbor.

Aurator, enjoyed the senario and have no doubt but that it is correcto. Spooky! I am always amazed that such actions are allowed to take place, but taking place they are. Some Saving and Loan in Podunk, Texas rises to be the largest in the U.S. It seemed obvious ( or it least it should have been obvious if anyone was minding the store ) that the reason it was the biggest was because it was paying the highest rates backed by yoou and me. Surprise! They could not pay the freight. Poof! $500 billion was it. Now it is a little different. Euphoria over the stock market with the little people getting on board. The laws of nature do not allow the little folks win. They are crusin' for a brusin'. How about the Ponzi scheme in Rumania. There is always a greater fool.

Just read U.S.A.'s gold comment recommended by JTF. Seems I could have authored part of it. Excellent stuff. Something Big is brewing.

For those of you asking about deflation and gold the following is an excerpt from http://strategicinvestment.com

Gold not an inflation hedge

The historic tendency for gold to rally in value during deflations is not appreciated, in part, because most investors wrongly assume that gold is primarily a hedge against inflation. The record here is clear, but apparently overlooked. It was documented in a thorough study, The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience, 1560-1976, by Professor Roy W. Jastram. Here, in Jastram's words, is a summary of his findings:

"The evidence drawn from the English experience for 400 years is clear. Gold is no hedge against inflation of a prolonged character. Even worse, it /lost/ operational wealth ( purchasing power ) consistently and seriously in each inflationary episode.... [From] ( 1897-1920 ) , a person would have lost two-thirds of his operational wealth just by holding gold in bars from the beginning to end. And this was in the golden age of the gold standard."

What about deflation? Jastram continues:

"Four pronounced price deflations took place in the four centuries recorded, with the three most severe occurring since 1800. In all four price recessions operational wealth in the form of gold appreciated handsome ly. When one sees that just by holding gold for 13 years from 1920 to 1933 operational wealth would have increased 2 1/2 times, one realizes that gold can be a valuable hedge in deflation, however poor in inflation."

So much for the conventional assumption that gold is a hedge against inflation. Its hedging value proved enduring from one inflationary peak to the next only because gold appreciated enough during deflations to recapture the value it lost during prolonged inflation.

JTF It will certainly be interesting to follow the Dec open interest. It was still over 100,000 last night. Not many days to roll it over are left. Lets see, 10,000,000 ounces, that's a lot of worry. We may see some double or even triple dope slaps.

One very *interesting* highlight from the USA Gold comments today:

"Swiss Bank Corp announced that it would cease operations as a gold & silver COMEX depository upon revealing that it had overstated its gold position by over 30,000 ounces and its silver position by over 3,000,000 million ounces last Friday. What is left of their positions was transferred to Republic National." .... "insiders tell us that at one point Swiss Bank accused Republic National of reporting to COMEX less than what it received -- an accusation Republic angrily denies."

So this is implying that the swiss had even LESS gold than what was announced...

If this type of infighting has any basis in fact I would say that this is a sign of complete disarray in the secretive gold banking world. Particularly when it reaches the light of day

Speculation aside, obviously something very serious is going on given that they are *resigning* over a purportedly *honest* book keeping error. After all, we all know how much trouble the swiss have with money concepts, counting etc.

Posts from Arden indicate that one of the original 5 comex warehouses was inactive. There are now 3 comex warehouses left. One can't help but wonder who else has been using swiss accounting methods....

JTF - looks like someone at USAgold has been reading Kitco. Those comments on Comex gold warehouse stocks sure seem familiar.

I am pleased that you thought of me! Have been watching Yenner...it is way oversold against ALL major currencies. Awaiting a nice POP.

More from Michael Lewis op. cit. ( he . he. )

The Japanese tendency to blame others for what ails them is even more frightening than the Japanese talent for financial chaos, which is considerable. Unlike most peopole in Tokyo I am unsure why the Japanese Stock Market Crashed....

.......but the word on the streets of Tokyo is that, one way or another America is to blame......
It's amazing how quickly a little room off a back alley in Tokyo can become a less cosy place to be an America.


away to work

BTW, those were not my words----this message brought to you by the MGT.

Tick, tock, tick, tock...

Skylark: A great many people listen to Mr. Veneroso.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/emerging_markets_for_1.html

GFD - actually I was in error. There were six com,ex depoistories, one of them inactive. Now there are only four active, not three. ( At least its not as big mistake as 'misplacing' $25 million in bullion! )

http://www.cftc.gov/ohr/4016-97.htm

arden; thank you for bringing Covert Comex activities to our attention so quickly. I have seen words or at least echose from kitco all over the web

peapoles = peoples
echose = echoes

opp, typo, should have read gold and silver stocks.

For those of you that are looking for gold stocks. The stocks which follow look pretty good to me. Of course you need to do your own homework. OROP TNX IPJ ASM FSR

Like I said do your own homework. I own em. But my clown nose fits great too.

just took a quick look at mining stocks- seems to be a major sell off. How long before the investor comes back?

http://www.cftc.gov/enf/ they accept anonymous calls, emails, etc. If we were all to email enforcement@cftc.gov advising of suspicious activities of COMEX gold clearing members, I think they might be more than a little interested...Are with us or agin us?

Donald, The rate at which financial problems are arising globally puts me in mind of the research on human information input overload which was done back in the 50's. As I remember,the research showed people speed up like crazy to a certain point. Then their performance either just falls apart - like the amateur 4 ball juggler with 5 balls in the air, or they just pick one or two things to respond to and ignore the rest and slow down their responses. I wonder which style the response of world monetary authorities will emulate.

TOLERANT: Thanks for the comment. I have no familiarity with the individual, but from the nature of comments from others, I assume he is a respected analyst. IMO there is a convulence of events taking place at this stage in the market which is particularly detrimental for stocks which have nothing to do with fundamentals: Tax loss selling, mutual fund redemptions, fear and margin calls all are taking their toll.

Skylark: Mr. Veneroso charges $8000.00 for his news letter. He is meticulous in his research.

Leading US Economist sharply criticizes Greenspans policy regarding gold.

In an absolutely perfect world, no central bank would need to
hold any gold. David Ricardo, the great supply-side, classical
economist of the 19th century, wrote in his Principles of Political Economy in London of 1821, that When money is working at the peak of efficiency, the central bank need hold no gold.

Very few opponents of "a gold standard" know what it is or how it works or how many different ways there are to link paper money to gold.

If the Eurocrats understood that, they would go back to the
drawing boards and build a monetary system from that assumption. This would require them to first fix the Eurocurrency to something the markets would understand as being a reliable unit of account. What? The answer is the dollar, the world's key currency, except that the dollar still wobbles around relative to the gold price. The Euro would be possible, but only if the dollar is first fixed in value to gold. Then, the European nations in the Eurocurrency system would have a credible unit of account as their anchor.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/wanniski111897.html

Carl: yes I heard of this '50's research as well, in which an overwhelmed executive would seize upon something immediately tangible, such as not wasting paperclips, counting them and keeping track of them, to the exclusion of all else...a defence against total breakdown. Perhaps this behaviour could be extended to committees of people trying to fathom the global mosaic -- and it would appear that at least some action was being taken.

I don't know what GSC is doing but with the metals up and the Canadian dollar up, I went long the metals today

Ive been out of town, so Im very much behind on Kitco posts.
RE: The barbarians--I think theyll be incorporated into another of my Bizarre Indicators

Carl, Yes please post or E-mail me your info. And thanks in advance.

Nick: Only you could create little art-works out of
the need to reprove the Bs. Nicely done!

Carl: What amazes me is that I have been reading about these problems since the 60's. How did the keep the lid on this long? There is a daily drumbeat of bad financial news day after day and the Dow is down 8% while gold is at a 12 year low and you can get a 125% loan on your house. It seems like a real dream world. What am I missing? Serious answers only please!

I have found here at kitco that the ones that do all the posting need some attention. Could you be lonely? Something happened to your family life when you were growing up? Been deeply hurt by your x spouse? Your relationship is unsatisfing? Please come forward as I will be very discreet. Let me help I specialize in this field of treatment.

Donald: you are not missing anything at all. The money they lose will fall into your pocket as well as the pockets of those individuals that watch and learn and act upon what they see.

Clearly a large majority of these people have gotten used to easy money. They need guidance. They are being herded. Soooooweeee. Soooooweeee. Look, here they come.

DONALD don't worry be happy. Everything is going to be OK. When your sick and confined to hospital bed then you can start worrying. Enjoy what is left of your life.

SRDer, I received the 30 group Annual Report yesterday. Tidbits: They list 37 former members since they began 19 years ago. ( Kind of low turnover I would think. ) Among former members is Alan Greenspan. Also Robert Roosa and Herb Stein. The first chairman was Johannes Witteveen b 1921 ( Dutch or German? ) . He's written a book in English "The Quest for National and Global Economic Stability" ( 1988 ) .
Their budget is small potatoes - about 500,000 a year which mainly goes for publishing reports, travel, an apparently modest office and staff. They meet all together twice a year, hosted by FRB of New York one time and Bank of England the other.
They have "Study Groups" the most recent ones - International Insolvencies in the Financial Sector and Global Supervision and Regulation.
Their finances are nearly all from gifts. Contributors are mainly large banks and financial outfits.
They sent the report to me only a few days after I e-mailed a request.
info@group30.org

Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.92 Nice move!

test: Ok, what's the news that will be announced soon? Your lips may be sealed but what about your fingers? Actually, what I really want to know is the methodology for your gold price calls. It is obviously a very good system, wont you share?

XAU/Spot Ratio = .245

To: Carl@Wonderful!

WOW...
I am particularly interested in Roosa's name.

Really important input Carl. I am very grateful. Perhaps you agree that this information provides with a solid foundation on which we may reasonably contruct? Again, my very sincere thanks.

I'm going to be out for the afternoon ( my time ) . Take care all.

I'm calling the cops...so can you.
email enforcement@cftc.gov and warn of suspicious gold market activities by depositories.

Donald, I don't think you are missing anything except the inertia contained in the large mass of economic systems. We are fooled when we watch things closely into thinking that what is happening has much shorter cause/effect time constants than it really does. Your observations and insights need time to be tested and they will be.

SRDer, You're welcome. I'm out till evening. May it be better than last evening!

Date: Tue Nov 18 1997 15:04
kiwi ( CFTC Division of Enforcement ) ID#194311:

House Committee on Banking and Currency ( 1933 ) ( 1935 ) ( 1947 )

***Federal Reserve creates money by the purchase of Government securities. All money is created by debt ... either private or public debt. *** ( Eccles: Governor, Federal Reserve, House Hearings, 1947 )

Strangely enough, there has never been a court trial on the legality or Constitutionality of the Federal Reserve Act. Although it is on much the same shaky grounds as the National Recovery Act, or NRA, which was challenged in Schechter Poultry v. United States of America, 29 U.S. 495, 55 US 837.842 ( 1935 ) , the NRA was ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court on the grounds that ** "Congress may not abdicate or transfer to others its legitimate functions. Congress cannot Constitutionally delegate its legislative authority to trade or industrial associations or group so as to empower them to make laws." **

On May 23 1933, Representative McFadden introduced House Resolution No 158, Articles of Impeachment against the Secretary of the Treasury, two Assistant Secretaries of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and officers and directors of the Federal Reserve Banks for their guilt and collusion in causing the Great Depression. "" I charge them with having unlawfully taken over 80 billion dollars from the United States Government in the year 1928, the said unlawful taking consisting of the unlawful recreation of claims against the United States Treasury to the extent of over 80 billion dollars in the year 1928, and in each year subsequent, and by having robbed the United States Government and the people of the United States by their theft and sale of the gold reserve of the United States.""

The resolution never reached the floor. A whispering campaign that McFadden was insane swept Washington, and in the next Congressional elections, he was overwhelmingly defeated by thousands of dollars poured into his home district of Canton, Pennsylvania.

Tolerant1
Would you mind explaining the relationship and/or mechanism between rising gold prices and deflation? It seems like you have posted that mumbo-jumbo from Strategic Investing before and frankly it looks like nothing much more than statistics and probability studies to me. What would be an explanation for such ( supposedly ) perceived behavior on the part of gold? It is easier to comprehend the relationship between gold and inflation, ie. more paper money in circulation/higher value for same amount of gold, etc. which is a very accepted interpretation. ( See Alan Greenspan, etc. ) We recognize that during the Great Depression Gold did increase in value but only well after the initial crash...wasn't that due to increasing inflation supplied by the Federal Reserve to combat the original deflation? In any case, the reaction at the present time to the threat of deflation seems to be on target, ie falling gold prices. Please reply here, I suspect that many of us are wondering the same thing.

November 18, 1997
Brazil denies rumors it seeking an IMF bailout

SAO PAULO ( Reuters ) - Brazil Tuesday hotly denied rumors it was seeking a bailout package from the International Monetary Fund, saying Latin America's largest nation could ride out its current financial difficulties on its own. "We are not negotiating any kind of loan or accord with the fund. Brazil is not dependent on the fund," Finance MinisterPedro Malan told reporters.

But Malan made it clear he was not closing the door on future talks with the multinational lending body should the need arise, adding Brazil and the IMF had "excellent relations."

An IMF team is visiting Brazil following last week's introduction of an austerity plan aimed at trimming $18 billion from the nation's 1998 budget.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BRAZIL-ECONOMY-IMF.html

PH: Could you please explain what area of expertise you have to label Professor Jastram's study as mumbo jumbo. In addition, what is your point. You disagree. Fine. If you have information that does not fall into the realm of mumbo jumbo please post it.

Your question is confusing, as the Professor appears quite clear where he is quoted. I have re-posted what I placed for general reading so you do not have to go back and find it. Please point out in your next post exactly what is unclear to you.

Gold not an inflation hedge

The historic tendency for gold to rally in value during deflations is not appreciated, in part, because most investors wrongly assume that gold is primarily a hedge against inflation. The record here is clear, but apparently overlooked. It was documented in a thorough study, The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience, 1560-1976, by Professor Roy W. Jastram. Here, in Jastram's words, is a summary of his findings:

"The evidence drawn from the English experience for 400 years is clear. Gold is no hedge against inflation of a prolonged character. Even worse, it /lost/ operational wealth ( purchasing power ) consistently and seriously in each inflationary episode.... [From] ( 1897-1920 ) , a person would have lost two-thirds of his operational wealth just by holding gold in bars from the beginning to end. And this was in the golden age of the gold standard."

What about deflation? Jastram continues:

"Four pronounced price deflations took place in the four centuries recorded, with the three most severe occurring since 1800. In all four price recessions operational wealth in the form of gold appreciated handsomely. When one sees that just by holding gold for 13 years from 1920 to 1933 operational wealth would have increased 2 1/2 times, one realizes that gold can be a valuable hedge in deflation, however poor in inflation."

So much for the conventional assumption that gold is a hedge against inflation. Its hedging value proved enduring from one inflationary peak to the next only because gold appreciated enough during deflations to recapture the value it lost during prolonged inflation.

November 18, 1997
Bank of Canada to sell total C$8.0 bln in T-bills

OTTAWA, Nov 18 ( Reuters ) - The Bank of Canada said on Tuesday it would sell a total of C$8.0 billion of Government of Canada treasury bills at its November 25 auction.

The Bank said it would sell a total of C$4.0 billion three-month, C$2.1 billion six-month and C$1.9 billion one-year bills.

The central bank last week said it would sell a minimum of C$3.0 billion three-month, C$1.6 billion six-month and C$1.4 billion of one-year bills at November 12 auction.

For Reuters bond and money market pricing information double click on one of the following:
Canadian bond prices
Canadian money market prices
Canada-U.S. spreads ( live )
World yield index
RR 30 year benchmark
CA/FACTOR1 - Montreal Exchange bond futures pricing information. For the fixed-income market speed guides, double
click on one of the following:

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/korea_reform_imf_1.html

http://nt.excite.com:80/reuters/971117/18.BUSINESS-DOLLAR.html

PH: Some more info on deflation. Pardon the tone of my last post but I do not think my previous post or anything contained within is mumbo jumbo. That's all. Hope the following helps you find what you are seeking.


http://www.ustrust.com/ep1797a.htm

http://home.istar.ca/~lowen/

Tolerant1 ( and/or anyone else with a real explanation )
Since when does one need a special "area of expertise" to pose a question? In fact, just the oposite would seem more requisite. A more careful reading of my post should clarify my point. You ( and the noted Prof Jastrom ) do not supply any theory or explanation for the quoted observations. My question: What would be said theory? Just why did gold rise in the cited deflations? Is the financial world identical today? After all, currency is no longer pegged to gold.
Please take no offence for my comments. I have no worshipful relationship towards Prof. Jastrom to have to take his every word as some sort of gospel. Nor am I a student in his class trying to get a good grade. Nor do I have any agenda of my own to promote beyond a better understanding of the mechanisms and rationales of the market. If you can't do any better than quote some recognized professor on this why not just admit that you don't understand and we can open up the question to all in hopes of actually learning something.
Everyone has opinions including Professors. But merely being a professor doesn't mean that we have to take their word as truth. It would seem more interesting to delve into their thinking by asking questions etc and learning something. I assume that the learned and recognized professor is probably absent from our forum. That is why I refer this question to yourself who has brought his opinion to our attention. If you can't answer it perhaps someone else can. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

6pak-if you follow Rep McFadden's life after his introduction of House Resolution No 158 you find that he spearheaded grass root movement that would have abolished FRB and transfered the control of the monetary system back to Congress. There were 3 unexplained attempts on his life. He died when he was run over by a car.

PH: Your point is well-taken. I have seen this conclusion of the professor before concerning the rise of gold in a deflationary environment - but I have never seen a rational reason for it. Everything I have seen re: gold is that it is a leading indicator for inflation and its recent performance is what would be expected in a global economy having deflationary forces at work. If indeed gold performed well during deflationary times, then the issue is why is it performing so poorly now.?

PH Further to my earlier post, one reason that can find support in a deflation is that governments are likely to provide a large amount of liquidity to counteract the deflation which will ultimately be inflationary and the gold market reacts positively in ancticipation.

6pak-in order to understand Rep Louis T. McFadden's fate consider the following exerpt from his June 10,1932 speech on the floor of the House ( Mc Fadden was at the time the chair of the House Banking and Currency Committee ) :

"...some people think the Federal Reserve Banks are US Governemnt Institutions. They are not US Governments Institutions. They are private credit monopolies that prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign and domestic swindlers; and rich and predatory money lenders." ..... "It ( the Depression ) was not accidental. The international bankers sought to bring about the condition of despair here so that they might emerge as rulers of us all."

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think the argument for gold as a deflation hedge runs something like this: Given that most if not all of
the world's governments would become insolvent in a general global deflation ( defined as a sustained contraction of money and credit ) , there
would be widespread defaults on government debt. Serious doubts would
also be raised about the stability of the defaulting governments and even
those not defaulting. Since a fiat currency is only as good as the government that issues it ( being just another paper liability of the country's central bank ) , all fiat currencies would become suspect. Gold
as the only monetary asset that is not simultaneously someone else's
liability would become the money of choice since it can't be defaulted
on. Accordingly, the demand for gold would increase sharply and the price would actually rise while other prices were falling.

The one advantage that fiat money is supposed to have over gold money is that one can earn interest on one's balances. This advantage would be
eliminated if there were widespread defaults on government debt. The interest argument is, I believe, the main rationale the central banks are using to currently justify selling their gold reserves and converting
to U.S. dollars.

In my opinion the currency of a country that has run a deficit in its
current account every year since 1976, has a net foreign debt of $1 trillion and a present current account deficit of $170 billion ( and growing ) is not a suitable monetary reserve. However, the central bankers are obviously much more intelligent than I am.

TUESDAY IN TOKYO: All Asian Stock Markets awash in RED - Malaysia losing 6% -- only the Nikkei rises - UP 4%. It bears repeating that ONLY the BOJ has the motive and financial clout to so dramatically reverse the Nikkeis KAMIKAZE dive!

Another startling announcement make in TOKYO today, which may have important ramifications for the US Dollar, T-bonds, and Wall Street:

Yen demand to grow in Asia as dollar link ends - BOJ

TOKYO, Nov 17 ( Reuters ) - Demand for the yen in the Asian region will naturally increase now that many Asian countries have stopped linking the value of their currencies to the U.S. dollar, Bank
of Japan ( BOJ ) executive director Takashi Anzai said on Monday

It would be only natural for currency transactions of the yen against local Asian currencies to increase after their departure from the dollar peg system, Anzai told an international symposium on European economic and monetary union and the yen.

He added: This applies to both the private and the public sector.

ORACLE QUESTION ON Behalf of Far-East Public & Private Sectors: So why do we need to continue to hold US Treasuries - DENOMINATED IN US DOLLARS?!

Whereas the BOJ will momentarily deter the slide in Nikkei, it will not resolve the underlying problems plaguing Japan and the rest of Asia. It is a ruse to confuse.

To appreciate the grim financial and economic conditions - becoming worse daily - one must examine the problems. This weekend an outstanding article was posted at GOLD-EAGLE, which describes in minute detail what is happening in Asia.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn111597.html

Delicious Irony! The Aussie govt is to convene a "round table" discussion with the local Gold industry to look for ways to rescue them.

The story is at http://www.afr.com.au/content/971119/invest/invest2.html

This is the same Aussie Govt. ( sorry, it was the Reserve Bank, wasn't it? ) who hit gold on the head in July with the announcement of a 167 Tonne Gold sale.

Come to think of it, this would constitute an interesting "buy signal" for Aussie Gold stocks, presently at multi-year lows. "We're from the government. We've made it impossible for you to make any money. Now we're here to help you".

Does anyone have a reliable url for the daily COMEX precious metal stocks?

Thanks in advance.

DEJ
Isn't the true national debt much greater than one trillion dollars if the amount borrowed from the Social Security System is included?
Isn't this part of what is called unfunded debt?

http://www.oregontrail.net/~mmontagne/mcfadden.html

Phil in LA: DEJ's post ( 18.07 ) answers your question very well.

"arborist, I was chatting to our company's gold analyst today, who firmly believes in the Swiss Bank conspiracy
theory. It goes something like this: The Swiss really do want to sell 1400 tons of gold, but not in the low $300
range. So broadcast intentions to the world, and sell a little. Force marginal producers out of the market.
Increase the annual production shortfall from the current 200 tons a year to 500 tons a year. Buy back what has
been sold. The production shortfall and increased demand will take gold back to the $400 mark, a much better
level to fill demand and the newly created production shortfall.

Does anyone know how the Gold/Silver index, xau.x, was adjusted when Santa Fe Pacific Gold was Merged with Newmont Mining? I have the list of the stocks that were originally components of the index and the weighting that was given to each but don't know where to find the new make-up of the index.

PH: I tried to tone down my first response. I am no economist. Since you site other people in your posts I suggest you contact them if you want an economic and scientific answer. I hope you find what you are looking for.
Good luck.

Who was it suggested a Frequently Asked Question Page?

Gold in Deflation is a FAQ

Phil in LA

This has been printed before


Date: Wed Apr 30 1997 23:34 aurator ( jesthefaxmon ) :
Mad dog: your 02:53 on deflation, this is a table reproduced from Dr Roy Jastram's *The Golden Constant*.
Apologies if this look wierd, I've tried before to get tables here but am defeated by Macintosh to Windows translators. The table should be in 7 columns but technical gremlins...


Purchasing Power of Silver & Gold in Inflationary cf Deflationary
Times
INFLATIONARY
Years CMdty Price % Silver% Gold %
1623-1658 51 -34 -34
1675-1695 27 -13 -21
1702-1723 25 -18 -22
1752-1776 27 -22 -21
1792-1813 92 -33 -27
1897-1920 305 -61 -67
1933-1979 2149 241 27


DEFLATIONARY
Years Price % Silver % Gold %
1658-1669 -21 27 42
1813-1851 -51 69 70
1873-1896 -45 -6 82
1920-1933 -69 32 251


While the study ( 1979 from memory ) is not without limitations, it
does show that you're crazy to hold gold during inflation, and crazy not to hold it during deflation.

Avoid experts who say gold is a good hedge against inflation.

Auroelf; Your 22:39 of april 29 "Trouble with charts is we see what we believe" is the most honest recognition I've yet seen on kitco on the limitations of any kind of TA.

How about:

I wouldn't have seen it if I hadn't believed it.

Or :

How do you know that what you know is not what you believe?


Anyone care to guess on which side of his tunic the village idiot will
dribble tomorrow??


Great Site, highly addictive, despite my antipodean contrariness.


Thank you all for your generous input.

Comex warehouse gold stocks up 9,163 oz to 505,694 oz, the first rise in weeks

Comex warehouse silver stocks down 126,736 oz to 125,970,413 oz

Thanks DEJ for the conventional wisdom on gold rising in a deflation.

Not to disagree but what you describe sounds like increased demand...but in the deflationary environment wouldn't much of what passes for currency disappear? High demand without the wherewithal to purchase? Wouldn't that drive the price down ( along with real estate, tangibles etc. ) ? Later on, when the banking system has a chance to re-inflate the gold price should go up ( along with everything else...including real estate, equities, etc. ) Folklore has always suggested that this is how the smart money ( who got out of the stock market when JP Morgan got his famous stock tips from his shoeshine boy ) got even richer.

Thanks, Bart for the site.

Things surely have been topsy-turvy here lately. The "one-upsmanship" that many
play here has become too commonplace. If you happen to luck out and make a prediction that comes true, let someone else compliment you.

I'm a high school teacher and every day I see and hear behavior like what's been occuring here lately. Live and let live. If you can't say something good,...

BTW, I recently bought some quarter once gold coins. Remember gold?

Interesting fact I picked up from stockhouse; As we know, many Gold mines are and will be closing with the low Gold price, however a lot of the these mines also produce silver as a byproduct, which will also disappear with these same closings..................

Re: Frequently asked Questions

A frequently asked questions page might not be needed if there were a Frequently answered Questions page instead.

This weeks issue of Forbes has an article on NEM for those interested: http://www.forbes.com/

Interesting theory. It could very well be in the cards, as I don't think there is very much physical Gold available, except for the CB stocks.
On the flip side, 8000 ( or more ) tonnes of Gold has been sold short.
Im convinced that the actions of the CB's will dictate the price of Gold for the near future, as it has fof the past year.

Where can i find a gold chart for the years 1929 to 1939? Is it availabble on internet?

http://www.phlx.com/products/xau.html

Someone recently posted an interesting news item about APEX silver and George Soros. Here's the latest scoop.

WHY IS FIDELITY OFFERING APEX SILVER?

SALOMON BROS. hopes to begin selling

shares of Apex Silver Mines on Wednesday.

And if you want a piece of the initial public

offering, it can be had through Fidelity

Investments's discount brokerage. "Check

out the latest public offering -- available

now," gushes a link on Fidelity's home

page. A better option: Link to the Nov. 7

story we wrote on Apex, "When Bankers

and Brokers Merge."

As we reported in that piece, the Apex

Silver offering is a highly speculative

attempt to raise around $100 million to

help develop an unproven Bolivian silver

mine. It's hardly the kind of IPO well-suited

to the individual investors who make up the

bulk of Fidelity's clientele. Even

professional investors were largely

unimpressed with the offering as first

packaged for the institutional market by

Salomon Bros. and several underwriting

partners. "We still have questions about

the location of deposits and the ability of

management to deal with the geographic

diversity of the deposits," says Lucille

Palermo, manager of the Van Eck Global

Equity Fund. "And the pricing seems a little

bit high."

Salomon says it will try to price the deal

between $13 and $15 a share on

Wednesday. It will mark the investment

bank's second attempt to unload the

shares. The first time the deal was

registered, the underwriters were Salomon,

PaineWebber and Canadian heavyweight

ScotiaMcloud. This time, Salomon has tried

another tack: It brought in its new merger

partner, Smith Barney Holdings, which has

a vast retail network. And it made some

shares available through Fidelity's discount

brokerage, which recently signed an

agreement with Salomon for access to its

equity offerings.

Fidelity trumpeted its new IPO service as a

sort of democratizing influence on the

elitist business of selling initial public

offerings. Finally, the small investor would

have early access to the hottest deals --

the same sort of opportunity

well-connected portfolio managers get. But

is this really the kind of deal Fidelity had in

mind?

Fidelity officials say they can't comment on

specific offerings. They do point out,

however, that the agreement is to simply

provide a conduit for whatever comes

through Salomon's pipeline. In other words:

Buyer Beware.

In this case, the question is, Why buy at

all? Apex bankers have been making much

of the fact that legendary investor George

Soros owns a chunk of the company. But

buying cheap is the hallmark of a good

investor and it should be noted that Soros

and several other high-profile investors

bought their 75% interest in Apex for $10

million, or an average of just $2.90 a share.

"The fact that Soros is involved is the

biggest selling feature for the deal," says

Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Partners in

Seattle, a fund that specializes in precious

metals. "If it wasn't for that, it would never

get done."

There are plenty of questions about the

quality of these assets. In addition to

pricing, a couple of other things bothered

Van Eck's Palermo, a respected precious

metals investor. "They're calling it a

reserve, but I'm not sure I would call it that

because it is in the first phase of a

feasibility study. A 'pre-fea' is not a

reserve."

A feasibility study, Palermo explains,

means that drilling has been done at the

site and the core samples have been

analyzed. It gives you an initial reading on

physical characteristics of the deposits.

One thing a pre-fea doesn't do, however, is

map out the economics of exploring and

operating a mine. In addition to the cash

raised in the public offering, Apex Silver will

have to raise an additional $327 million to

get the mine up and running. "Since they

haven't done a whole lot of metallurgical

work, they can't talk about recoveries and

processings," Palermo says. "If you don't

know that, you can't talk about the

economics."

Right now, Apex is between a rock and a

hard place. The company is currently trying

to arrange bank financing, but the banks

want to see more equity before they lend.

Unless Thomas Kaplan, Apex's chief

executive officer, can raise the $100 million

on the public market -- or tap more cash

from Soros, et al. -- Apex doesn't have

many options ( efforts to reach Kaplan were

unfruitful ) . "Investors won't give them any

equity until debt arrangements are in

hand," notes Palermo. "But banks won't

lend to them until they have equity in

place. They're in a real bind." It's a problem

retail investors would do well to avoid.

-- By Pablo Galarza

Sorry about the double spacing, it didn't appear in "preview" comments.

http://www.kitco.com/gold.londonfix.html

Algae: I taught a few years myself and if the kind of behavior that's been going on here lately disrupted my classroom it would earn a student seat in the office.

Nikkei down 2.5%

Skylark: You said: "If indeed gold performed well during deflationary
times, then the issue is why is it performing so poorly now.?"

The deflationary period probably has just started and is not yet reflected in the CPI figures. The Dow has been deflating since August 3rd. On that day it took 26.2 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Dow.

At the close today you can buy one unit of the Dow for 24.92 ounces. The purchasing power of gold has improved during that deflationary period as it relates to the Dow.

Check out this url that Nick posted early this morning. http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/QUAKES/WEEKREPS/LATEST/cencal.gif
Scroll down to the second chart. It is VERY obvious that earthquake activity in California is inordinately Heavy lately.

"It is an old and ironic habit of human beings to run faster
when we have lost our way." ---Rollo May

Algae: ( you were of course referring to last night? )

What do you think of my idea of pushups as punishment?? Every obnoxious poster must drop and do twenty. That'll teach 'em. That's right, no lazy sloppy kitcoites around here. They either fight or drop and do twenty or go surf with me and the general.

God, I love the smell of Napalm in the morning...

Away...to promote discipline amongst fellow kitcoites

uttkicker

go gold!

I work for a Placer Dome Gold Mine in Nevada. I'm looking for some sort of information that people might have on the Gold price and where you think it may be going. I also would like to know what anyone thinks of PDG stock. Feel free to comment please.

Where Are You??!??!? C'mon Mike. I need your lovin' and your groovin'. Step up to the plate and hit some balls.

I miss you man...

away...to dream of The Sheller coming back to kitco...aaaaaaah......

rokenhearted

Deflation is not falling prices. It's correctly defined as a contraction
of money and credit. The global supply of money and credit as measured
by the world dollar base is still rising. We are currently in a disinflationary period where the supply of money and credit grows ( and
rather briskly ) and yet prices don't rise. This situation happened also
in the 1920's. We are probably just beginning the period of outright
deflation. Deflation in my view will begin when confidence is lost in
the reserve fiat currency ( the U.S. dollar ) . It will probably begin with a run on the U.S. dollar and be accompanied by a spike in U.S. interest
rates and a collapse of the U.S. stock market. Only then will outright
deflation begin which should be very bullish for gold whereas disinflation is not good for gold.

This, of course, is only the opinion of the author and should not be construed in any way, shape or form as investment advice.

U.S. YIELD CURVE -- Inversion odds increasing
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/u_s_yield_curve_i_1.html

Foreigners net sellers of Japan stock via Big Four
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/foreigners_net_selle_1.html

TOKYO STOCKS - factors to watch - Nov 19
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/tokyo_stocks_factor_1.html

Argentina back to int'l debt markets by year-end
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/argentina_back_to_in_2.html

Donald and Skylark: Historically, a credit deflationary has always been bullish to gold because of FEAR. Investors who deposited their gold in banks because fearful that certain banks were about to fail, and that they would not be able to redeem their bank-notes for gold. Gold was viewed as money, the bank-notes were viewed as credit. The conversion of paper for gold was a rush to liquidity -- or a rush to the "safe haven" of gold.

These days, 99% of investors view stocks, bonds, mutual-funds, and bank accounts as money ( or as good as money ) . In fact, none of them are. It is the implied ( and in some cases, actual ) support of our federal government and its agencies that makes these instruments seem safe. During the coming deflation, when the solvency of Uncle Sam itself is questioned, that the fear, and the flight to quality will develop. When people become afraid of US Treasury debt, gold and silver will, by default, become the only logic alternatives.

This bubble has developed for so long, and to such great heights, because of the implied guarantees to banks, insurance companies, mortgage companies, etc. 125% mortgages would not be possible without government support. But all of this credit has not helped. Our country is in a bigger financial hole, than ever. Bankruptcies are skyrocketing. Someone will have to pick up the tab. It will be Uncle Sam. And he will go broke himself trying to save all of these institutions.

Ritz: There is an excellent site you should visit if you are not already familiar with it; http://www.gold-eagle.com I think you will find a whole range of interesting reading there.

If we understand, by currency, the legal money of the country, and that which constitutes a lawful tender for debts, and is the statute measure of value, then undoubtedly, nothing is included but gold and silver.

Most unquestionably, there is no legal tender, and there can be no legal tender in this country under the authority of this government or any other, but gold and silver, either the coinage of our mints or foreign coins at rates regulated by Congress.

This is a constitutional principle, perfectly plain and of the very highest importance. The states are expressly prohibited from making anything but gold and silver a tender in payment of debts, and although no such expressed prohibition is applied to Congress, yet as Congress has no power granted to it in this respect but to coin money and to regulate the value of foreign coins, it clearly has no power to substitute paper or anything else for coin as tender in payments of debts in a discharge of contracts.

The legal tender, therefore, the constitutional standard of value, is established and cannot be overthrown. To overthrow it would shake the whole system.

Mr. Webster: Thank you sir.

Mooney* - your 11/18/97 19:39

Check out my post from 11/18/97 03:43. The area south of Mono Lake ( area number 1 and figure 3 ) is the location of the Long Valley Caldera. Seems there is magma activity taking place there. Hope there's not an eruption like there was 730,000 years ago.

A quote from http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/volc_images/north_america/california/long_valley.html:

"The Long Valley caldera was produced by a catastrophic eruption about 730,000 years ago. The roof above the magma chamber collapsed, forcing 150 cubic miles ( 600 cubic km ) of rhyolitic magma to the surface in the form of Plinian ash columns and associated air falls and ash flows. The volume of ash is comparable to similar caldera-forming eruptions at Yellowstone and far exceeds the volume of ash erupted from stratovolcanoes. For example, the large eruption of Tambora in 1815 produced 10 cubic miles ( 40 cubic km ) of ash."

To get an idea of comparable sizes of Tambora to what happened at Long Valley ( and Yellowstone ) check out http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/VOLCANOES/LongValley/sizes.gif. Puts it all in perspective.

Here are some more sites to check out.

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/118-37.html

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/Long_Valley.html

See its easy:
To whom it may concern,
I have spotted this story on one news service and also I believe the Comex depository mentioned, the Swiss Bank, had its offices fire bombed on Wall St. in New York on November 9, 1997. Is anyone checking out these stories, it almost sounds like mafia activity or perhaps fraud. Quite a few investors have heard these stories and are concerned about the lack of information being made available by the news services concerning these events. As one of these investors, open disclosure is always the best policy concerning financial markets and if there is any criminal activity involved it is best nipped in the bud.
Excerpt from article:

"Swiss Bank Corp announced that it would cease operations as a gold & silver COMEX
depository upon revealing that it had overstated its gold position by over 30,000 ounces and
its silver position by over 3,000,000 million ounces last Friday. What is left of their positions
was transferred to Republic National." .... "insiders tell us that at one point Swiss Bank
accused Republic National of reporting to COMEX less than what it received -- an
accusation Republic angrily denies."

A concerned investor

Sounds good to me.

DEJ: I think you about hit it on the nailhead. The flight from other currencies to the dollar has really propped things up and has hurt gold, at least gold denominated in dollars. I think the deflationary spiral has started overseas, and will keep spreading. Uncle Sam and the IMF will be like the little Dutch Boy trying to plug all the leaks in the dike, but there are only so many fingers for only so many bailouts. Sooner Or later the whole thing may collapse.

Robear please email with BCMD unofficial page address. My computer crashed and I have lost web address. Thanks

Second URL should be http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/VOLCANOES/LongValley/sizes.gif

Sorry about that.

GFD, Excuse me, I didn't have the original handy so I copied some of yours, left out your handle though ( grin ) but I included my name and email, nothing to hide and I am sure they know all about me anyway!

Hi Ritz: I don't own PDG but I do own Bema Gold. Placer and Bema just made a deal in Chile that seems to have benefit for both companies. It should allow both to become low cost producers. The problem is that it will take some time and money to develop the property. The present price of gold is not helping.

ALL,
a site with colourful.currencies exchange site.
http://mccoy.djtelerate.com.hk/htmls/market/forex_reg.html
This morning,the region currencies under attack again.This time....IS MY TURN,MALAYSIA!Both the stocks and $ whecked heavyly yesterday!Look likes worst today!Korea too!Japan nikkie future in new york also dived 400+..
The areas seems have very little respond from NEW YORK GOOD NEWS bUT
re act terrible from bad news!the klse "NO HOPE"!I can say that!Too many sectors got BURNT OUT!
IN THE EDGE OF BANKCRUPKKKKKKKKKKKKKCYYYY!HELPLESS!

***Bart***
The directory /pub/discussion/ has blocked access?
Can't seem to be able to post charts?

All
Swing chart has just turned negative.
Last time this crossover happened was 10/10/97
Market internals sick:
Up/down vol --- adv/dec/unc --- new high/lows

Kiwi, sent email, went to URL and tried, email comes back.....hmmmmmm?

Email recieved today:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
I queried the Boolean expression "financial AND analyst AND credit" in the DMC Million Plus resume database and several Internet search engines. One of the retrieved resumes, postings or pages advertised your email address implying that you would welcome email
inquiries on related subjects. Hence I am writing to ask for your assistance.

I'm looking to hire an individual with 2+ years surety underwriting or financial/credit analysis experience. I can offer a very comptitive salary, full benefits including ESOP, 401k, profit sharing and bonus.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Somebody here has spammed my email address to this database.
I do not wish to engage in work and have never forwarded my email address.
God knows what they said about me?

DEJ: You said: "Deflation is not falling prices. It's correctly defined as a contraction of money and credit."

The United States has been experiencing a credit inflation. The monetary role has been minor. Thus we will experience a credit deflation. The prices we can expect to decline the most are of those things which were purchased with credit. Commodity items of everyday use are less likely to decline in price.

From the monetary side I would like to point out that as of December 31, 1994, $233 billion of U.S. currency circulated overseas. Thus it did not have a role in the presently ending inflation.

DONALD, PUETZ: Thanks for the response.

Where can I get current Nikkei price quotes?

I thought that the Aussie, Nikkei, and some of the other Asian markets were suppose to be open by now? And, the Kitco Gold Chart is stuck again tonight. Any suggestions.

TPher: That eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 threw so much ash into the sky that by 1817 here in New England it snowed in July. They called it "The Year Without a Summer". The spot from where I am typing this post was 300 feet further from the ocean in 1817. Storms eroded 300' off the shoreline that year.

DONALD, PUETZ: As a point of interest, I would suggest that you download the recent gold chart portfolio found on the Yardeni site. As will be seen from the charts, CB selling as of August, as reported by the IMF, is only about 1/2 of that incurred in 93 on a year to year basis. CB gold as a percentage of the CB reserve base is at a recorded low since 1960, as would be expected. Gold reserves for devloped countries is at its lows while those for developing counries is near its high. And as also would be expected, Gold has clearly followed the CPI and PPI in its historical relationship.

Tokyo Nikkei slides 3% after PM denial on bank aid

TOKYO, Nov 19 ( Reuters ) - The Tokyo stock market's benchmark slid more than three percent by mid-morning on Wednesday as concerns over Japan's financial institutions heightened after the prime minister denied saying he was mulling using public funds for ailing banks, brokers said.

At 0051 GMT, the 225-share Nikkei average was down 507.19 points or 3.03 percent at 16,219.38.

Nikkei December futures slipped 540 points to 16,250.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto denied saying he is considering using public funds to clean up the bad loan mess at Japanese banks, Jiji news agency reported.

Speculation over the use of public funds for banks had prompted a rally in the past two sessions.

- Tokyo equities desk ( 813 ) 3432-9404

Looks like a rough night coming up. The quote sights aren't working ---
hiding the bad news - down over 500 points so far.

Oracle master : Here. http://satellite.nikkei.co.jp/enews/

This is from Bloomberg News: "Strong demand from jewelers ahead of the key winter holiday season boosted gold prices Tuesday."

I have a hard time accepting that analysis. Other opinions?

That's what I would expect from Bloomberg News! There is nothing new under the sun!

Globex s&p selling off slowly.
Quote.com SPZ7 - all sessions.

Tuesday November 18, 8:33 pm Eastern Time

S.Korea's Kim accepts Finance Minister resignation

SEOUL, Nov 19 ( Reuters ) - South Korea's President Kim Young-sam on Wednesday accepted the resignation of Finance Minister Kang Kyong-shik and top presidential economic aide Kim

Their email box is full with more than 1000 messages...is that all kitco?

Interesting comparision of S&P futures charts 87-97 at bottom of page.
http://www.btinternet.com/~stargate/wallst.htm

PUETZ, DONALD: For a case for inflation, I would suggest you consider the recent article by Steven Roach found at the "Cents" site. Although he has been consistently calling for inflation, the present article has some fresh meat to digest. For example, he states:

I note with interest the results of some recent research

by Robert Gordon, Professor of Economics at Northwestern University and

long one of the leading academic experts on the linkage between growth and

inflation. Professor Gordon argues that this year's surprising improvement

in inflation is traceable to a confluence of temporary factors -- the technical

adjustments that the BLS has made to correct for CPI "biases" as well as

an understatement of inflation for computers and medical care. Absent these factors, Gordon calculates that the personal consumption deflator was rising at a 3.6% year-over-year rate in 2Q97, fully 1.5 percentage points faster than the officially published measure and up more than one percentage point from the cycle low of 2.4% hit in early 1994. Gordon's analysis implies that this year's good news on inflation stems solely from a series of nonrecurring factors that will not be in place in 1998. Absent these factors, measured inflation can be expected to return quickly to its underlying trend of 3.6%. So much for the new paradigm!

This could be bad - the next 24 hrs.
Yes, seems like more of this unable to access, or communicate durring important economic periods. Probably the good people who were here last night.

That report is probably promoting the party line right off a World Gold Council press release. I know that sounds crazy, but if you go to the WGC site you will see that they think jewelers will save the gold industry. No kidding.

South Korea's in very deep dodo. IMF bailout is probably their only hope.
I would think they have exausted all their foreign reserves.
How many more countries can the IMF bail out ????
They can't be giving away SDR's like popcorn, or can they?

HK just opened: -183.10 -1.79%.

Oracle Master : Nikkei 16,146. -580, 3.5 %. http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/Stocks/

Sunday nite I posted this comment-
Brady bonds are Latin American debt guaranteed by the US government,
How could you lose?

Any comments??

Tally Ho

Quiz - what book and who was the author?

There's really no practical alternative to gold.

That's not what officials at the World Bank and the International Monetary fund believe, of course. But they also believed that their "paper gold," as they termed a creation called the Special Drawings Rights ( SDRs ) , could act as an international reserve currency. We hear little about that accounting fiction these days. If a dollar can be called an "IOU nothing," the SDR can be called a "Somebody owes you nothing."

Down 2%

To all and sundry,

BTW, it was Joseph Kennedy who decided to bail out of stocks in 1929 when his favourite shoe shine boy was dispensing stock market tips.

This is much better and more civil than last night. From the Avid Info cite, "What you take will be an exponential factor of what you give. It's called leverage. Of course, with every privilege comes responsibility...". At the risk of livening things up, I would like to comment on the ongoing Great Kitco In-Deflation Debate. It is given that the current currency is backed by credit. At a point during deflation, the currency will become worthless as the debts it is founded upon. This would tend to cause prices of real goods denominated in dollars to skyrocket. Over the long term, gold has tended to outlast all fiat currencies. One small vote for gold in this discussion. With due consideration to Steve Puetz, the USG will not run out of money, but will borrow more and more from the Fed. It will not be enough, but they will not run out of money. Maybe ink or engraving plates. In the final analysis, I must side with D.A. and others in the Inflation camp. Comments?

Tolerent1
The book was by Ann Rand on Capitalism ( copyright 1966 ) Chapter 6 by ALAN GREENSPAN called GOLD AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM. A must read.

All the central banks own large quantities of gold and the IMF ownes about $25 billion. Listen if gold goes from $300 oz. to $1500 oz. then the IMF has $125 billion to bail out whoever still needs it.

Hmmm, now here was a good Gold share investment. Pegasus down 60% yesterday, 27% today, and 95% for the year. I pity the folks who have been following the "Buy Gold shares" recommendations here the past year ( BEMA shares the honors for biggest loss and highest volume on AMEX yesterday ) .

However, being a "dipster" and all, I think NOW is most certainly the time to buy the PGU shares!!

Whne your medium of exchange is not gold or silver or at least backed by gold and silver, then it can only be backed by DEBT. In fact, any currency not backed by gold and/or silver is already by definition DEBT ITSELF! ( YES, the US DOLLAR IS NOTHING MORE THAN DEBT! ) As more of this debt is created to back its ever more fraudulent false promises and dishonest values it fuels the need to create ever more debt to back up all previously issued currency ( read debt ) . Once this insidious process begins it MUST CONTINUE AT EVER INCREASING RATES! IF it does NOT INCREASE, or if it ( God forbid! ) actually CONTRACTS, then the currency begins to fail, the debts begin coming due, the economy begins to weaken and the inevitable result is DEPRESSION! Obviously for this game to continue, everyone must be on board the paper currency train ( read US DOLLAR train ) ! The more who jump off it to sound ( real, honest ) money, the closer we come to a DEFLATIONARY COLLAPSE of all debts public and private! That's why the FED was created in the first place--to PREVENT DEFLATIONARY COLLAPSES! Since it must now keep the fiat paper currency
ponzi scheme from collapsing the only weapon it has available is the printing press! Hence its actions are always INFLATIONARY in the long run and gold and silver must be fought at every turn lest the average joe catch on to this charade, expose it and attempt to flee from its inflationary ravages! This is the mess we have created in this country which is now coming home to roost! THE US DOLLAR IS FINISHED AS A WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY! AS ARE ALL OTHER WORLD CURRENCIES THAT REMAIN UNBACKED BY GOLD! Thus the struggle to create a NEW WORLD CURRENCY BACKED BY GOLD! And thus the struggle to get as much of it as possible AS CHEAPLY AS POSSIBLE AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PUBLIC GETS WISE TO THEIR PLAN AND FORCES THEIR HAND TOO SOON! We are at war, meine Freunde, with the central bankers of the world and all is fair in this war against GOLD and SOUND MONEY! They will stop at nothing to discredit the historic relationship between gold ( sound money ) and economic and political freedom because GOLD IS FREEDOM FROM TYRANNY and what the powers that be have planned for us is no less than TYRANNY ITSELF with ( excuse my shouting ) a CAPITAL "T"! That's why we need 125% home equity loans and credit cards coming out of our arsches! If the DEBT ( CREDIT ) EXPANSION QUITS EXPANDING, THE GAME IS THEN OVER! ALL DEBTS ( CREDIT ) COLLAPSES! And we have a DEPRESSION, now GLOBALIZED BECAUSE THERE IS NO SOUND MONEY ANYWHERE TO BE FOUND! HHence before this whole mess plays out we will probably see 150% home equity loans, 200% home equity loans, who knows maybe 2000% home equity loans! Anything to keep the paper game alive UNTIL THE POWERS THAT BE HAVE THE WORLDWIDE POWER AND AUTHORITY TO ISSUSE A NEW GLOBAL RESERVE CURRENCY AS GOOD AS GOLD ( read BACKED BY GOLD ) !

Dig Deep: The book I got it out of was;

Crisis Investing - For The Rest Of The '90s - Douglas Casey
Revised and Updated edition.
Page-182-paragraph four-

Now even MOI is considering that NOW is the time to think Gold...we're close, very close....

By Michael Byrnes

SYDNEY, Nov 17 ( Reuters ) - The gold price crash has lined up further large-scale mine closures in Australia and
worldwide with a massive 50 percent of world gold production unprofitable at current prices, gold industry
analysts said on Monday.

Friday's decision by Canadian-based Pegasus Gold Inc ( Toronto:PGU.TO - news ) to close its Mt Todd gold mine
in Australia's Northern Territory was only partly a special case, they said.

The recently reopened mine operated at high cost and was not protected by the weaker Australian dollar from the
gold price slump because of its North American ownership, they said.

But large numbers of Australian and international gold mines still faced closure, analysts said.

``I'm sure it's a trend, particularly if the gold price stays about US$300,'' Gavin Wendt, mining analyst at
Intersuisse Ltd, said of the Mt Todd closure. ``There would be a lot of mines under consideration for closure.''

Pegasus said it would cease operations at Mt Todd, a 70,000 ounce a-year gold producer and a middle-ranking
Australian mine, due to the continued deterioriation in the gold price and the mine's cost structure, booking a
US$353.3 million writedown on the project.

Gold prices fell to around US$303 in offshore markets on Friday, mainly due to continued rumours of central bank
selling.

Australian Mineral Economics ( AME ) said that even at gold prices before the weekend's further decline, 60
percent of world gold mines and 50 percent of world production was unprofitable.

Hedging by many mines, particularly in Australia, would keep them operating for a while, AME's Paul Gooday
said.

``It will be a cat and mouse game, a war of attrition,'' he said, adding that South African gold mines were more
exposed than those in Australia or the U.S. because of high costs.

Other analysts took a stronger view.

``At US$300 a lot of mines will be marginal. Anything above $320 is under threat,'' Wendt said.

Hedging alone would not keep mines in operation.

Analysts saw an eventual recovery in the gold price, but not for at least six months -- and not because of a change
in the supply/demand balance with gold mine closures.

Mine closures would take only a couple of tonnes a year out of production while central banks could sell
thousands of tonnes, said Keith Goode of broker Bell Securities.

Closure of Mt Todd was just the latest in a series.

Twenty Australian gold mines were closed or put in process of closure in the September quarter, 12 with
production of more than 20,000 ounces and eight with less than this.

"It doesn't look good, there are no two ways," Goode said.

Goode expected gold prices to fall to about $280 if it did not hold at present levels and $250 if it did not hold
there.

"There's not much hope for the next six months," he said.

The Australian dollar, which has fallen about 12 percent against the U.S. dollar since mid-August, so far has saved
many Australian gold mines from closing after gold's 27 percent tumble since February 1996.

``It ( further Australian mine closures ) depends on the Australian dollar more than anything else,'' Goode said.

Some planned mine closures already have been announced.

In August, Sons of Gwalia Ltd ( SGW.AX ) said it would close two mines immediately and shut its Bullfinch in six
months.

Other Australian producers seen as top of the endangered-mine list include Plutonic Resources Ltd ( PLU.AX ) and
Newcrest Mining Ltd ( NCM.AX ) , with St Barbara Mines Ltd ( SBM.AX ) , Gold Mines of Australia Ltd
( GMA.AX ) and Croesus Mining NL ( CRS.AX ) mines also in danger.

Individual mines seen threatened include Normandy Mining Ltd's ( NDY.AX ) Big Bell, Newcrest's New
Celebration, Plutonic's Peak Hill, Australian Resources Ltd's ( ARS.AX ) Mt McClure and Gidgee, Forrestania
Gold NL's Bounty, Sons of Gwalia's Marvel Loch, St Barbara Mines' Bluebird and Goldfields Ltd's ( GLD.AX )
Paddington.

-- Sydney Newsroom 61-2 9373-1800

email address: sydney.newsroom@reuters.com

Live intraday Topix graph.
Not the nikkei 225 but the closest there is to it.
http://www.tse.or.jp/xe/edef.html

R.Jetts Gold/XAU charts
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Floor/3046/

Gold analysis
http://www.btinternet.com/~stargate/comodity.htm

-----------------------------------------------------
Stolen from the web:
How far the decline gets over the next few days is not as important as the technical condition of the market if a continuation and an eventual drop to at least the 10/28 low is going to occur before the end of this month. BE PREPARED TO SELL near the close tomorrow if the SPX does not trade above 939.

The bearish ewave count that allows for a huge decline is still very much
alive. I rate the chances of a crash at about 25% right now which is quite
high by historical standards. As long as the SPX cannot break above 939 for an entire day the bearish case is very much alive.

With the massive bailouts necessary to shore up the world's banking system the only solution to all that bad debt is to devalue the dollar in some way. If that were to occur any money owed in dollars would be much easier to pay off. That is where a few hundred dollars in deep out of the money gold options may come in handy. You can be sure that gold as out of favor as it is right now will retain a more close link to real valuation than anything else.
Think about it. It is a long shot but can be just as valid insurance as crash puts are.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
One Israeli says to the second --"I have a thousand shekels, what should I do with it- "Put it in the bank" was the reply.
"But the banks could fold."
"Banks can't fold, the government stands behind them."--
"But the government could fold."
---"Well, isn't that worth a thousand shekels?"

Hurrah for Ebuttkicker & discipline.

All: My guess ( IMHO ) is another market downturn soon, with the rapidly evolving situation in S Korea. Brazil is not far behind.

Japan will be forced into a competitive devaluation as a consequence of this. If US treasuries are sold, it will be after the devaluation of the Yen.

Please don't forget, the Central Banks still have 3/4 of their gold ( we think ) avavilable for loans. If the market tanks again, so will gold during the next attempt to stabilize the markets. In my opinion, gold and gold stocks will not rally until after "the powers that be" are convinced that there is no market to protect. The current economic system must be protected "at all cost", I guess.

Please take this message for what you paid for it. Decide for yourselves.

Puetz, since your thesis that declining volume when DOW is rising, and increasing volume when it's falling means the market is bearish, can we assume that now with three strong updays in a row on high volume, and then a down day on lower volume, means we're now in a "Bull" market? Just wondering!

Oh yes, one more thing for contrarian DOW watchers. Since the DOW was just Not able to "hang on to" it's lows today, and only dropped 47 points, after big rises 3 days running, does this mean we're looking at an ultra strong market? And today's drop was incredibly bullish?

Many of us here believe gold IS money. Starting from that premise, as the prices of most goods and services have been going UP in terms of gold ( instead of costing one ounce as it did last year, a good suit now costs 1 1/3 ounces ) , we must conclude that we are having rip-roaring INFLATION, or rising prices, ( in terms of gold ) to the tune of 30% since gold was $390/ounce last year.

Your 21:21 is hereby nominated for the Pulitzer Prize! We must have a 180 degree turnaround, sound money and a sound Government. It is the only answer.

Donald: Any news on how much S Korea needs from the IMF? Brazil news?

My guess is that there will be lots of hands out for bailouts, but the IMF's pockets are nearly empty.

Aussie's be ashamed! Not only has your Government sold it's gold but your producers are forward selling at These Levels. What sort of confidence does that inspire. You deserve all that befalls your gold mining industry.

Cheese, re your 21:21 post, I can only say one thing. The Packers suck wind! ( Niners are gonna whup em bad if they make it that far ) Oh yeah, as to debt, Gold backed currency on a world economy will only work if you come up with a one world currency. Is that what you're proposing? One world govt.? Shame on you! I thought you didn't want the One worlder, tri-laterlist, banker dudes from hell to win out in their conspiracy to take over!

There are tons of excellent bargain priced companies in the mining sector. There are some very wealthy companies out there just wating for a market turnaround.

In addition, I think the market in the US is nervous and "investors" are getting real spooked.

Looking back to 1929 I believe the figment standard party line was no different than today. Buy and hold long term. The rest as they say is history.

Major Gold Trading Centers Around the World. Many Gold price links, including closing bullion and gold coin prices. Also shows live GOLD TRADING in London, Singapore, Tokyo & the COMEX:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

You are of course completely correct. It all boils down to Gresham's Law: The money without intrinsic value ( i.e.- the paper garbage ) circulates and gets passed around like a hot potato, while the money with intrinsic value ( gold and silver ) gets hoarded.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities were modestly lower on Tuesday, while
precious metals ended mostly higher. Gold rallied $2.90, silver dropped 1.8 cents,
platinum surged $7.30, and palladium gained $1.20. Sentiment remains extraordinarily
bearish: news media reports continued to nearly unanimously predict an imminent drop to
$280, having their stories complete before today's trading even started and not bothering
to alter them based upon the actual activity. Meanwhile, gold mining shares were mostly
lower, accompanied by relatively heavy put buying, again ignoring the general gains in
precious metals.

Continental European banks with retail outlets have been swamped with physical demand
in recent days, according to a report by Andy Home of Bridge News in London.

The Aussie CB sale is particularly hard to understand seeing it's contribution to the devastating effects on their relatively important mining industry. Buy PGU though, at $1.00 a share, it's gotta be a huge gainer when and if Gold rises and they can re-open.

GoldenCheesehead: You speak well tonight. I think the existing financial system is trying to use whatever assets it has -- even hard assets -- to preserve the paper system that has performed so well for so long. But not for much longer.

I think the ultimate crisis for the dollar will not be tomorrow, or even 6 months from now -- but it will come, unless our belief in "paper ( debt ) " assets is reversed very soon. Unfortunately, belief systems created over many decades cannot be altered overnight.

JTF: Korea is the 10th largest economy in the world but no bailout figure is mentioned. They seem confused; different statements within the government. They are having an election in a few weeks and probably hope to postpone any formal request until after the vote. Brazil says they don't need help but many familiar with the reality do not agree.

Donald your 20:49. My daily precious metals update from infobeat states the following:

"COMEX and NYMEX precious metals ended mostly higher Tuesday, with gold taking solace in the possibility of the European Central Bank including gold among its assets.

Countering weeks of rumors of central bank gold sales from the likes of Germany and Switzerland, one of the directors of the Bank of France weighed in with comments at a conference in London Tuesday that 'gold should be part of the assets transferred to the ECB.'

Comex December gold closed at $307.60 an ounce, up $2.90 from Monday's close, trading in a $304.40 to $308 range."

I think this carries more weight than the Bloomberg report.

Confidence is a very fragile thing and be shattered almost overnight. I would be afraid to let any present Government existing in the world issue a new currency backed by gold. They would start the debasement overnight.

The following is an excerpt from http://www.gold-eagle.com

WANNISKI ON THE GOLD STANDARD

Very few opponents of "a gold standard" know what it is or how it works or how many different ways there are to link paper money to gold. The question arises again and again: "How can we be on a gold standard when there is so little gold and so much money needed to finance this enormous world economy?" The answer is that it is the function of the central bank only to maintain the "standard," the "unit of account," and the rest of the world will create its own money around that standard.

Neophyte: Thanks. How many bracelets can you make in six weeks? Did you notice that Steve Kaplan pointed out that the press wrote their gold stories early in the day long before the markets close? Can't believe everything you read.

LGB: You may be right that we will have a rally in the DOW -- it is possible. If so it will probably be due to a "flight to safety" from other parts of the world that are experiencing real difficulties - now at least 1/3 of the world economy, with South America and Russia very likely soon to be included. If you are right, gold may rally for a bit along with the DOW.

Given the rapidity of what is happening in SE Asia, and other parts of the world -- things are moving a bit to fast I think to know what will happen in the short term. I would still submit that money saved for the pending gold rally will be a "sure thing". I'm not so sure about a similar bet on the DOW. Why risk your cash right now, when a sure thing is around the corner.

JTF made a comment that the dollar would not drop for up to 6 months. I suspect that given the massive debt liquidation proceeding apace in Asia and especially Japan ( the major creditor ) will result in BOJ sales of US T's much sooner than that. Unless the BOJ really wants to see a meltdown in the yen. They've been doing a pretty good job talking up the yen, but at some point, their hand is going to get called by the currency markets.

HERR LGB--Better change your initials to SFN! You might be confused with Likes Green Bay! It's tough to REPEAT as WORLD CHAMPIONS what with salary cap rules, 12 guys on injured reserve or out for the season, an aging and achin' Reggie White and a league and division where everybody and his brother can make a big name for hisself by sneaking by the mighty green and gold! But the season's not over yet. And despite all the problems the PACK is still in FIRST PLACE! And I'll wager that that's exactly where they'll be come January when they'll no doubt be forced to travel to San Francisco and prove their worth to the world just like they did last year! Is that Young feller recovered from those busted up ribs he had last year? Felt sorry for him last year and will probably be feeling sorry for him again this year! Oh, yes, and for all those sorry San Fran fans who will be forced to watch it all in person ( up close and personal ) !

As to the rest of your sarcastic blather. No I don't want what the TLC and the CFR and the CIA and FEMA and the FBI and NSA and that whole NEW WORLD ORDER crowd has in store for me and you! And the only way I know how to express myself is to SELL DOLLARS and BUY GOLD! Only time'll tell whether such a move was the height of folly and stupidity or the wisest and most astute move ever made! I'm voting for the latter mein SF49'er Freund!

Observor: One thing to keep in mind is that mining companies are businesses trying to earn a profit. Hedging is good business practice especially when they have to budget far into the future. IMO the Aus mining industry is far ahead of what goes on here in NA.

Digdeep ( @bailout ) : YOUR "All the central banks own large quantities of gold and the IMF ownes about $25 billion. Listen if gold goes from $300 oz. to $1500 oz. then the IMF has $125 billion to bail out whoever still needs it." EXUDES COMMON-SENSE LOGIC!!!! HOWEVER, the ruling-politicians have a different "agenda," and the Opposing-Party is too stupid to understand your reasoning.

for those of you wondering why the Aussie CB would undermine its native gold mining industry the answer is simple and obvious. The austrailain central bank is tetering on bankruptcy, although that fact has been manipulated towards obscurity, and the sell off had everything to do with liquidity. This has been confirmed by the asian market losses, which in turn are continuing to erode the Aussie position.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/brazil_18_bln_fiscal_1.html

Golden Cheesehead: Good post.

Hypothetically, if the US were to monetize its 262 million ounces of gold to be equal to its $5.5T public debt, that would make gold = $21k per ounce. Is my math correct ??

Bob Brinker must be right. GoldBugs really ARe masochists! The call for Gold backed currency, debt free, type monetary systems, is a call for reveerting back to mass unemployment, starvation, and reversion to third world economy status.

In spite of the problems we incur with debt and monetary expansion. we would never have been able to produce the economy we have today without it. You wouldn't have the cutting edge high tech. advancements, you wouldn't have the strongest economy in the world, you wouldn't have the plethora of good high paying jobs and low unemployment, you wouldn't have a way to finance the social "safety net" programs we all abhor so much ( but which keep society stabilized nonetheless ) , you wouldn't have our enterprinarial productivity that has indeed "Created something from nothing" you wouldn't have our status as world ecomomic leader in virtually every area where it counts.

It's our expansionist economic policy that prevents us all from starving in the streets, and living in cardboard boxes like much of the world. You ought to understand that and worry more about placing better limits on it, rather than hoping for a total meltdown that will plunge everyone back into the dark ages.

All: I do not think we should be depressed about the future. Strangely enough, I'm not, though you would think so. I do not like what I see happening -- but it is part of the cycles that seem to be part of being human.

Hidden in the turmoil we see around us are the seeds of another flowering of human culture beginning the next cycle -- we must be patient to see what is to come.

A return to "truth in government"?

A return to basic values in life?

A melding of the "hard" sciences with the "soft" ones?

Our destiny in the stars?

The development of "zero point energy" sources for ( nearly ) pollution-free economies?

We must move forward, regardless of our worries.

Hopefully the next time around we will remember more of our past experiences.

From the way I figure it a ton of gold on the open market is worth around 10million. 100 tons 1billion. Doesn't sound like alot of money in todays terms. If the CB's are selling the gold it doesn't make sense to me that their doing it to raise money. They might be doing it because they view it as an asset class that is going to go down in value ( which is born out by the decline in prices over the last couple of years ) and because it earns them nothing. The Aussie's made money on their sale if you look at the present price.

Mo, you've got an incoming missive. Ted, where are you my lad, have you changed your handle? Another lethargic day in the financial pits--gold, silver, paper gold all choking on their own saliva. With all the "good news" about paper the DOW should be thrusting up to new heights. However, from here it looks like it is jerking up occasionally in a bear market which will continue for some time with periodic moments of euphoria when the good old ( one per cent up per day ) days appear to be upon us again. Gold on the other hand, the old store of value, is the same color, quality and quantity today as it was a year ago when the price was higher. That value will remain when the creaking limbs of this ancient bull market are folded against its torso in its death throws.

Can anyone please post Nikkei status. Yahoo is down.

HERE, HERE! yet i doubt that many have such vision as to be inspired when such gloom is at the door!

I would not be surpirsed, as I have stated before, to see the British take over as THE Central Bank. They did it before and nobody questioned the integrity of the Bank of England. To this day the British Soverign is the single most recognized gold coin in the world.

It would not surprise me at all. The first Bank to declare an absolute commitment to maintaining a specific relationship between their paper and gold wins the whole enchilada.

Now I wonder, who has a whole bunch of gold? Hmmmm.

Pyramid: No. You are confusing cash money with credit money. Take the U.S. cash money figure of $486 billion for your calculation.

Japan finance stocks dive on public fund denial

TOKYO, Nov 19 ( Reuters ) - Shares of Japanese financial firms tumbled on Wednesday morning as investors, disappointed at a denial by the prime minister that he was thinking of using public funds to help ailing banks, stepped up their selling.

``The denial took its toll on Japanese stocks traded overseas last night and the sentiment spilled over into the Tokyo market,'' a trader at a second-tier brokerage said.

``Bank ( 0#BNK.T ) , securities ( 0#SEC.T ) and real estate ( 0#REA.T ) shares, which had been on the rise lately, are coming under fierce selling,'' he added.

At 0132 GMT, the securities sector was the largest loser on the first section of the Tokyo exchange while banks were ranked third. Brokers said investors were focusing their attack on banks and brokerages amid rumours over their financial health.

Yamaichi Securities Co Ltd ( 8602.T ) was the most heavily traded issue at 21.68 million shares, tumbling 25 yen to an all-time low of 83 despite comments by the brokerage that it is not in financial trouble.

It was followed by Nippon Credit Bank ( 8304.T ) , which was down 16 at 97 yen, off an earlier low of 88 yen.

Tokuyo City Bank Ltd ( 8547.T ) tumbled 13 yen or 20.31 percent to a record low of 51 yen, pulling up third on the list of largest percentage losers.

The problem loan-burdened financial sector had been sinking in recent sessions, hurt by the collapse of second-tier brokerage Sanyo Securities Co Ltd ( 8605.T ) earlier in the month.

However, the idea of using public funds cropped up on Monday following news that Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Ltd's ( 8312.T ) business will be taken over by another regional bank, boosting the Nikkei average by nearly eight percent.

The central bank said it will provide necessary liquidity for the bank to continue its operations until a planned business transfer is complete.

It also said the Deposit Insurance Corporation will purchase the bank's non-performing assets. But financial authorities' stance on the use of public funds has been cautious and an official decision has yet to be made.

Jiji news agency reported on Tuesday afternoon that Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto as saying he was considering the use of public funds to help ailing banks, which boosted the stock market by more than two percent.

But Jiji later reportedHashimoto as saying, ``I have never said that public funds would be used. Please do not misunderstand me.''

yes indeed, then again we would also likely not have the massive pollution, global warming, resource depletion, a species extinction rate of 1 species per day and climbing, social and political hysteria either.

.... and the world must go back to the good old gold
standard, gold is money, fiat is debt, etc. etc. etc.


Most goldbugs still dont get it.
We ARE on a gold standard NOW......

The day that citizens of the principal currency of the world
were allowed to own gold AUTOMATICALLY put the
U.S. dollar BACK on the gold standard.

If you feel that the goverment is expanding the monetary
base in relation to the gold supply, it is your right to
arbitrate and exchange your dollars for gold at your nearest
bullion dealer. We have a truely open free market gold
standard, and THANK GOD we dont have a goverment
ordained gold standard. Now with most other world currencies
pegged in recent years to the dollar, they TOO are on the gold
standard ( the countries that permit gold ownership or those with
offshore accounts )

So whats the problem?
Why all the complaints?
WHEN they make gold possesion illegal again ( which
WILL happen the moment the public wakes up and
demonstrate with their wallet ) THEN you will have
something to really gripe about.

I think that THIS is the Eastern perspective that
ANOTHER has been trying to plant in this discussion
group. Myself, Im glad the markets see gold as worthless,
just makes it easier for me.

Cmax

I know SADAM and he will be the great one who brings down the regimes through out the Middle East. The world now is a very dangerous place. Without the supply of oil flowing from here would mean an end to economic growth through out the entire world. He knows this is the only way to break the United States. If he does this he has won the war. Your president knows this and unfortunately for the America will be led to a war that can never be won with all the military might in the world. Sadam has enough influence in the Arab world to circumvent any military action. A wrong move by your president and Islam will crush the economy of America and the world. America is walking on very thin ice.

LGB: Some good points. Maybe gold sould be looked at as any other commodity and not held in such lofty esteem as in the past. It has value for jewelry, industrial purposes, and maybe as money in third world countries with run away inflation. But in highly industrialized countries with other asset classes with intrisically more value ( rich farm land, real estate, stocks, oil, other natural resources ) gold has alot of competition.

LGB --PGU??

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/boj_denies_report_s_1.html

Good post and points well made. We should all be careful what we ask for ...we just might get it.

Nikkei 225: Down 595.60 or 3.56% at sushi break time.
See: http://personal.fidelity.com/82DEV/the_hub/html/N225.html for real-time quotes when Yahoo is unavailable.

Mo in to: Joe Kennedy, ambassador to England was more short
the US dollar than stocks when they devalued the dollar vs the
Brirish Pound. Teddy then facilitated his father by putting on the
"pounds"

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/japan_money_supply_g_1.html

TOKYO GOLD at mid-day Wednsday UP 16 Yen ( per gram ) . Converted, the yellow is up $3.90 to $306.20 ( at conversion rate of Y126.60/US$ ) --- seems the Nippons DO NOT TRUST BOJ's Nikkei bailout of last three days:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

Panda, Pegasus trades on the American Exchange as PGU. I remember seeing recommendations here to buy it. Seen recommendations for dozens of others too, including BEMO which has also taken a horrible beating, but Pegasus must take the prize for being an actual Gold mining producer in Australia, getting whopped down 95% in value in one year! Saloman Brothers downgraded it to a "sell" and the Gold price makes them unable to keep mining at production costs.

And you guy's say the DOW is risky!!!!! Don't know how tough it can be to lose 95% in a year when the DOW's up 20%. However, I find it OHH SOOO tempting to buy some at a buck a share! Maybe tomorrow it'll be .70 and we'll REALLY have a bargain!

Tokyo down 3.6%.
http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/Stocks/

Vronsky: With all due respects, is Tokyo gold following the uptick here. According to Kitco 3pm post cash gold hit a high today of 311.50.
Any comments about why that I may have missed earlier?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/korea_1.html

Steady: Thank you for the information, in both posts. I did not know about these items that you mentioned. Thanks again, take care.

Prudent, re your 22:19. May I cordially invite you to live by your words and eschew all the trappings and benefits of modern society, living instead as a bushman.

There are certainly mining companies which have made share holders a great deal of money in the past year. Ooddles of it in fact. To say that the entire industry did not make money for it's share holders is naive and shows a complete lack of knowledge of the industry.

CMax: You are right. We are on a gold standard. We just need prices to be reflected in ounces and the deal would be done. That is why I use the Dow/Gold Ratio, so I can see where we are in ounces.

LGB BOLONY, We will surely wind up in the dark ages the way things are going. A stable gold backed currency as Mr. Forbes Jr. pointed out would create more long term stability. I agree are growth would be slower but more sustained over long periods. As of now if things really swing the other way we will be in much worse shape than 1929. We are in the era of very high risk players and our politicians are leading the way to our demise.

Just so no one thinks I'm some kinda perpetual DOW cheerleader! It's gonna DIVE tomorrow.... and I hope it does. I'm still looking for a 6700 level so I can buy back in.

All that glitters..... Many if not most NA mining companies lose money and have negative cash flow. In the last year imvestors have had a rude awakening to the business end of things. Investment is one thing, speculation and "pie in the sky"is another. All I can say from hard experience is watch out when considering to invest in these companies. They love to issue lots of shares to raise money, spend the money, and roll back the shares and start the cycle over. That 1.00 per share stock cound end up to be 1 cent very easily.

LGB -- I owned PGU a couple of years ago. When I owned it, it went from ~14 to ~11 to ~16. They are a high cost producer in the hole big time. If the gold bear continues, they will disappear in to bankruptcy or become someone elses property, cheap. Just take a look at what's happening to ECO. Contagion of a sort, eh?

Low cost producers with large reserves are the ones to own.

It is a little late in the season to be making stock pieces. I am already getting full up with custom ( paid ) orders. Even if we are talking about manufacturers, I have already made most of my inventory purchase decisions.

On the other hand, I did just buy a nice supply of fine in grain form to take advantage of these bargains. I sure would not want to be forced to purchase at $1,000/oz.. At those prices, I would certainly start giving my waxes a better finish to avoid filing the castings.

Lets face certain realities about gold supply and demand. The major portion of demand is from the jewelry industry. The available central bank supply can keep our demand sated forever together with recycling. The key is their willingness to divest their portfolios of hard assets. This is in relation to the current trend towards globalization of world markets. While working toward free trade and the free movement of production, international trade policy and finance is worked out between gentlemen ( central bankers ) . With this working together comes the responsibility to not take unilateral protectionist actions. Gold as an assurance of creditworthiness is made unnecesary because there is faith that one nation will not print up money to pay their international trade debts. Even so, the current level of information allows for the exchange rates to cover any shenanigans.

It will not be until globalization trends reverse towards protectionism of domestic markets and politicians begin taking over from central bonkers the responsibility of protecting our trade positions that gold will become more than jewelry. When our working relationship worsens with our trading partners and money supply information starts being manipulated, central bank gold reserves will once again be necessary. Even if not used for balance of trade payments, reserves will be needed psychologically as a sort of collateral.

When globalization trends will reverse is for all the fortune tellers on this site to pontificate on but it will happen. The cracks are starting to show and someone is bound to start cheating. Human nature is a straight line on any graph. unchangeable over time.
Steve
http://www.familyjeweler.com

Correction Ray, "the way things are goin" I'm looking forward to the 21st century. YOU may end up in the dark ages, but the producers, builders, achievers, dreamers, contributers, and sustainers that far outnumber the Luddite Naysayers, will carry on as they have since the 30's when we dumped the damn Gold standard!

Lasrt post: Who really knows whats going tro happen when they
trade utilities like pork bellies when interst rates are dropping. The
market is about to do something that will be in the history books!

Forget Gloomberg News.IT's bought and paid for just like Douters........

This looks interesting...." You've got a lot of shorts out there that are

covering. "

http://cnnfn.com/markets/bridge/2333.1.html

And so does this................. " swamped with physical demand "....

http://cnnfn.com/markets/bridge/2270.1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/indonesia_says_rupia_1.html

Donald:
If "the deal was sealed" as to the price of gold where the goldbugs want it, all holders would be be trafikkers of contraband.

When the price does go ballistic, it will NOT necessarily make life any simpler.

Herr LGB--Come on now! No one here really WANTS to see a global market meltdown and a "return to the dark ages" as you put it! I sure don't! That's why we want to return to the standard that got us here in the first place! No one I know thinks that ALL DEBT is bad. Just so that the medium of exchange to pay it off is not just another DEBT ON TOP OF DEBT! THIS is what leads to DEPRESSIONS both INFLATIONARY AND DEFLATIONARY! Not legally contracted debts public and private, BUT A MEDIUM OF EXCHANGE ( CURRENCY ) WHICH IS BUT ANOTHER DEBT! Can't you see how our current debt-based currency is leading the world to ECONOMIC CALAMITY? The rosy world you would have us all believe was created out of nothing by the power of debt-based currency is an ILLUSION that MUST BE PAID FOR at some point with REAL, HONEST MONEY ( READ GOLD! ) . Otherwise it will all collapse! Then ONLY those who have the real honest money ( read gold ) will be able to pick up the pieces of whatever remains and start all over again with constitutionally-sanctioned money that is an honest and real store of value and credible as a means for payments of all debts public and private! The really tough part is that the average person DOES NOT understand what his government has done and is doing to him and DOES NOT CARE! Hence the bread lines, soup kitchens and shanty-towns! Such is the SAD PRICE OF GOVERNMENTAL TYRANNY of which our Founding Fathers warned us just 200 years ago!

Clearly there are many that do not understand the gold standard. Plain and simple.

I suggest reading WANNISKI ON THE GOLD STANDARD at

http://www.gold-eagle.com

You will better understand the "standard" and the "unit of account" he speaks about so eloquently.

It is rather simple and does not require gold holdings to the extent that are suggested here.

Haystack ( Tokyo gold prices ) : Please check the following website, and you'll see the yellow was not even close to 311:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/intra-day.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971118/imf_official_expects_1.html

I have seen it suggested ( here at Kitco ) that some news about President Clinton's legal affairs reaches Europe before the US. Therefore, in case it's of interest, I attach a story from today's Daily Telegraph.

Best wishes to all Kitco contributors and readers, Peter.

Criminal cash 'put Clinton in White House'

By Hugo Gurdon in Washington

A government ombudsman confirmed that America's biggest union and the Democratic Party laundered illegal

funds for each other, as yet another trail of dirty money leading to the White House door was exposed yesterday.

Kenneth Conboy disqualified Ron Carey, the labour boss, from running for re-election as president of the

Mob-linked Teamsters union. Conboy said that Carey had telephoned President Clinton's finance director to

thank him for raising improper campaign cash.

The disclosure is expected to trigger a wider investigation which will embarrass Mr Clinton and Vice-President Al

Gore, both of whom are already being investigated for illegal fund-raising.

Mr Conboy, a former federal judge, found that far from rescuing the Teamsters from chronic corruption as

promised, Mr Carey was guilty of "extraordinarily serious misconduct" in his victorious election campaign last

year against James Hoffa Jr. Mr Hoffa is the son of Jimmy Hoffa, the legendary Teamsters boss who ran the

union even while in jail for corruption in the 1960s. He disappeared in 1975 and is assumed to have been

murdered by the Mafia.

Mr Hoffa Jr is now expected to sweep to victory in the rerun election, ordered because of fraud in the last one.

The case has wide implications. It suggests that what the Justice Department called a "devil's pact" between the

Teamsters and the Mob may remain intact.

But it also opens another can of worms for Mr Clinton. Trades unions spent 18 million on devastatingly effective

television advertisements last year, attacking Bob Dole, the presidential candidate, and other Republicans, and

supporting Mr Clinton and Mr Gore.

The Democrats are already struggling to repay several million dollars of illegal campaign funds. If widespread

illegalities are also found in union money-raising, the 1996 election will look increasingly like one bought with

criminal cash. Mr Carey claims that he did nothing wrong and will fight to prove his innocence, but the judge said

he "tried to mislead his interrogators", used "bogus" excuses and offered completely "untenable" accounts of his

actions in regard to illegal fund-raising for his campaign.

Martin Davis, a campaign aide to Mr Carey, who has pleaded guilty to election fraud, says he asked several

Clinton-Gore campaign officials, including Terrence McAuliffe, the finance director, to join in a money laundering

scheme.

They would find wealthy donors to contribute to Mr Carey's re-election and, in exchange, the union would

plough money into the Democratic campaign. The union donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to the

Democrats who, in return, lined up a foreigner to give 70,000 to Mr Carey's campaign. But this money was

eventually rejected because the donor was an employer prohibited from financing a union election.

However, Jere Nash, Mr Carey's campaign manager, who has admitted election fraud, says Mr Carey called and

left a message thanking Mr McAuliffe for his efforts. Mr McAuliffe says he received no message and had no

dealings with Mr Carey.

Soloman and Merril both downgraded PGU.I would be very carefull with that

one,as their creditors haven't spoken yet.Waiting to see what they have

to say would be prudent in this case.

BGO on the other hand is real opportunity if you don't mind a little

risk in Gold going lower.I don't think it will see the 280 without more

obvious and blatant manipulation by the CB'ers.

Whats really strange here is this...gold is being shorted down on well

placed and eagerly publicized rumors,yet when they are dispelled they

are twisted around to keep the price down.How long can this go on being

so obvious to even the little folks like myself?

LGB
If the Dow is to fall past the 7000 level,
The shear weight of the many masses, panicing and leaving,
Will ensure that it falls far further.

Just like a bottom for gold was called at 350, 320, 300, and now 285.
So will it become with the mighty Dow.
7000, 6000, 5000, and soon to be heard 4000.

GREENSPAN'S MILLIONS
"Greenspan thinks we're heading for a crash. He's putting his money where his mouth is and making a statement about irrational exuberance."
http://www.nypostonline.com/111697/business/623.htm
Smart money moves by the worlds smartest financial advisor.


DON'T JUDGE A GOVERNMENT SURVEY BY ITS COVER
http://nypostonline.com/business/785.htm

EWR info
http://www.webcom.com/beacon/contents.html

Clearly every politician on the planet is telling his or her people via the media that their money is stable and safe. Yet the people of the entire world see everything is not stable or safe.

The United States is not the rock of stability that everyone envisions it to be. Once the dollar cracks, and it will, gold will go through the roof. Amidst all the reassurances of the government, gold will go through the roof.

The first to embrace the solidity of gold backed money wins.

Plain and simple.

LGB, I don't know you but since you have been here that is on this planet you are no expert. I say that because you have been led to believe like sheep everything is great. Now if we do have a tragic financial accident and it is as bad as I expect you will change your story. Very quickly. You are enjoying the best of times right now. If your ignorant then you believe it will last forever. Thats what your essentially what your eluding to. We are winding down to some financial melt down. Stocks will not be in the fore front. However since we cannot time the markets 10% hedge in gold is prudent.

Can't post the XAU/CRB chart tonight. Bart must working on the changes. FWIW, the ratio is higher now than in the 1992-93 low period.

Good night all...

LGB; ( your 22:11 ) "the plethora of good high paying jobs" . . . ? Since the cutbacks in the defense and aerospace industries, the bulk of jobs have been shifted from "hi-tech" to the "Walmart-minimum-wage-or perhaps-a-bit-more-if-you're-a-manager" category. When Japan was in it's great growth stage their gov't funded research at every level, and whupped us seriously in every phase of consumer hi-tech . . . TV's, VCR's, Radios, Automobiles, Irons, Toasters, Microwave Ovens, Fluorescent fixtures, steel production, etc, etc. They built an economy predicated on results.

Then as now, we were more pragmatic ( . . . NOT ) . . . We chose ultimately to divert funding to non-producers ( read that as homeless or wannabe homeless, or close-to-wannabe homeless, etc. ) , and massive layoffs from hi-tech industries ensued, were tolerated ( indeed applauded ) by the population at large, and continue to this day. Only our computer technology keeps us afloat as a "technological beacon" at present, and like any other product ever conceived and produced, will have run its course and expire in due time ( That is a whole 'nother topic ) . When that epoch arrives, we will indeed pay the piper for our reticence.

Today's America frowns on both Hi-Tech Spending and Basic Research, Good paying quality jobs are virtually non-existent for the career techy or engineer, but there are plenty of openings for "salespeople" at Best Buy, Circuit City, Sears, and any company in general that resells Southeast Asian Goods. The job market for new graduates sucks, and will deteriorate further as computers continue on their path toward a stable, well defined, commodity item - - Much as the modern hammer ( Another tool of mankind ) .

Best Regards, Niner

JTF; ( your 22:11 ) Soft and Hard Science united? Uhh, like astrology and particle physics? Aarrgghh.

Having big trouble getting Asia markets on the radar.

Better to get out a year early than a day late. Steve

Bill Clinton is dead meat. The flash point was the Fast Track fiasco. He lost more than he gambled for. I think at this point his presidency is in jeopardy to the extent that investigations galore will begin in earnest.

His death knell came with his arrogant attitude to labor. Dead meat.

The market death knell came with the Japan market moving 1600 points based on nothing. Dead meat. It will drop like a rock and all those wonderful pieces of paper the Japanese will start coming home.

Deliver THIS!!! 8 - 0

STILL....... UN - DE - FEATED!!!

the DUNKMASTER Kobe Bryant

Prudent:

12:36 Nikkei avg. 16,124.38, DN 602.19 points ( 12:45 pm )

from :
http://home.kyodo.co.jp:80/cgi-bin/briefsStory

Tortfeasor:ted is on his way to his beloved USA;Clintonland :- ) )

Cmax: bravo for saying something I can agree with,also tolerant1

what a change from yesterday!

Isn't it 1:45 in Tokyo?

Prudent: or try



Stock Exchange Indices
Last Updated Wed Nov 19 12:00:00 1997 HK/Singapore Time
Tokyo +1 Hour, Delhi -2 1/2 Hou
Description Value Change Percent
Tokyo Nikkei 255 16130 596 3.6%

at
http://www.abn.com.sg/mkt_up/index.html