Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:00 - ID#257148)
midnight somewhere in the world
Gold Gold

The Major
(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:04 - ID#372425)
Found this great site for looking up world times.Give it a try...........

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:06 - ID#400248)
Kitco cash prices
Vronsky: Thanks for posting gold eagle site for prices. The price of 311 for the high came from Kitco. Is it possible this was the high price in London?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:11 - ID#57232)
Niner: Your 23:16. Hope you're still there. Noticed your post about the shift in the American economy. I have a Tektronix model 310A 3Mhz oscilloscope, an HP 117A 600 volt power supply, and a 1956 Chrysler Imperial, 300HP and 18mpg, all in good working order. In fact that old Imperial has less trouble starting than my Blazer. I do remember when the best electronic equipment in the world was made in the USA, and when it was affordable.

Your reference to Astrology and Particle physics -- that was not my intent exactly to point out, but it is possible that some aspect of the mystery of the "zero point energy", the "casimir effect" and Bell's Theorem may come from unraveling the mystery of Astrology. I am not talking about Astrology in the form that it exists now, but in a quantitative, analytical from. I am talking about phenomena that do not obey the inverse square law most physical interactions in the universe follow. If you doubt this, you should see what the Japanese have apparently done with "over unity motors" -- Takahashi, and Wankel have invented prototypes of these motors that most of our modern Physicists would consider nonsense. But -- then why has Edward Teller written an article on an interstellar drive based ( as I recall ) on the Casimir effect -- why does Mikio Okaku talk about time travel -- and why did Hannes Alfven talk about zero-point energy? On the latter I have been frustrated in being unable to get only fragments of H. Alfven's prose on zero-point energy -- because I think it was unpopular.

Hope you enjoy this post! Here's the the unknown future that is undoubtedly stranger than we can imagine!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:24 - ID#255284)
I believe in Yesterday
JTF I find the present stranger than I can ever imagine.

Go Cold Fusion

I mean Gold

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:26 - ID#373403)
Nikkei 15907 down 819 down 4.9%
Hell getting quotes tonight. Yahoo, Bloomberg, etc. are dead. Thanks for the ABN tip.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:26 - ID#401460)
Japan -820 -5%

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:28 - ID#260194)
@Crystal Ball
With gold up a couple bucks today, why didn't ABX and abxlw and abxld
go up too? ABX was down 1/2 buck with gold up!! ???

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:30 - ID#260194)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:33 - ID#20134)
Prudent :
Here is one more. One of them should be working ( with roughly correct results ) most of the time. Hope it helps.

15870 -890

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:34 - ID#335190)
November 19, 1997
FOCUS-Asian currencies sink, battered by won

SINGAPORE, Nov 19 ( Reuters ) - Asian currencies sank deeper on Wednesday as the South Korean won again hit its daily limit and a new low just as the country's finance minister resigned.

November 19, 1997
Japan market euphoria fades as funds issue clouds

TOKYO, Nov 19 ( Reuters ) - Tokyo stock market euphoria over the prospect of public funds being used to ease Japan's banking sector woes faded with a vengeance on Wednesday as investors realised nothing had yet been signed, sealed or delivered.

The Tokyo market's main barometer, the 225-share Nikkei average, plunged nearly four percent to 16,130.97 at midday as investors digested Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's denial of a reported comment that he was thinking about using public funds to help cope with Japan's bad loan mess.

November 18, 1997
Brazil says fast-track failure may hurt world trade

BRASILIA, Nov 18 ( Reuters ) - The Brazilian government on Tuesday said the failure by U.S. President Bill Clinton to get "fast-track""trade negotiating authority from the U.S. Congress may hurt international trade negotiations.

Foreign Minister Luiz Felipe Lampreia said Brasilia was concerned about the fallout from Clinton's decision to delay a vote on the legislation until next year because it left the world's biggest trading nation powerless to strike any deals. "It is clear we are concerned that the president of the United States did not receive from Congress a mandate to conduct these negotations," Lampreia told foreign journalists in the first official Brazilian reaction to the fast-track failure.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:34 - ID#57232)
@looking at the future
Aurator: I would like to see you do that again. You posted a "midnight" post and the time was 00:00. What are the odds that you can repeat that feat within your lifetime?

I don't know why I'm so wound up today -- perhaps it's because I just reread Robert Heinlein's "Requiem". He was a posivitist if there ever was one. But-- he also believed that the cycles of war and hardship were part of us as well. Somewhere in this book he said that freedom is impossible unless there are men that can fight like a "Kzin Warrior" of Ringworld fame. One could either die fighting for it, or just die.

He also believed that the human race could survive almost any hardship. I like the epitaph of D.D. Harriman, the fictional businessman that financed the first Moon Rocket, and stowawayed on the first trip:

"Under the wide and starry sky

Dig the grave and let me lie.

Glad did I live and gladly die

And I laid me down with a will!

"This be the verse you grave for me-

Here he lies where he longed to be,

Home is the sailor, home from the sea,

And the hunter home from the hill."

Apparently Heinlein was inspired by a marker on a grave in Samoa with the above words. I believe like him that we will have difficulties, but that we will surmount them, reach the stars, and meet non human intelligence ( other than whales and porpoises ) . It is important to always have faith in the human condition.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:36 - ID#260194)

Monkee Person
(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:37 - ID#288105)
@ source to ground
Isn't it probable, from an historical perspective, that gold's spot price drop to the amount it costs to get it out of the ground?

Some companies have lowered their cost-per-ounce considerably.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:42 - ID#20134)
Time Change:
Geese can't tell time, they just give url's to reference and quote the times on the information given.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:48 - ID#57232)
@signing off for the night
Aurator: Saw your post on cold ( gold? ) fusion. I think we can confidently say that Gold will go up before Pons and Fleischman get the Nobel Prize for Cold Fusion! Even if they were right that there was an unknown new effect, they were sloppy with their words, and made unsubstantiated claims.

I think the secret of cold fusion lies in the "zero point energy" mystery -- which will remain a mystery for some time to come, despite the awakening effect of the internet.

Good night -- hope the US market is in one piece in the AM -- the Tokyo news blackout is real suspicious, isn't it?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:51 - ID#335190)
Tokyo stocks tumble four percent on bank woes

TOKYO ( Reuters ) - Tokyo stocks tumbled over four percent on a key index Wednesday afternoon, sinking below the psychologically important level of 16,000 as investors sold shares in the ailing financial and banking sectors amid fading hopes of government financial support, brokers said.

They said investors dumped the shares after Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto denied he was considering using public funds to prop up the ailing banking sector.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 00:58 - ID#335190)
USofA President Bush @ Protest UofT
November 18, 1997
Canadian academics angry over Bush award

TORONTO, Nov 18 ( Reuters ) - A decision to award an honorary degree to former U.S. President George Bush has triggered derision and threats of a protest from a group of academics at Canada's largest university.
More than 100 faculty members at the University of Toronto have signed a petition demanding that the university cancel an ornate ceremony on Wednesday at which an honorary doctor of laws will be presented to Bush.
The protesters have threatened a mass walk-out during the ceremony.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 01:21 - ID#393224)
Here is a chart from The Privateer ( thanks Bill Buckler ) ) showing the price of gold in four currencies.

While gold is taking a dive in $US and D Mark terms, In both Aussie $$ and en the price of gold is actually RISING. The A$$ chart looks like a familiar bowl shaped pattern forming -- usually a precursor to future rises. The en chart ( if you'll get out your ruler ) is on a slow rise.
The A$$ and the en are falling faster than the price of gold ( thus making the currency prices look good ) . Compare the distance gold has fallen in US$$ and D Marks -- about the same distance as the last big fall ( July ) .

Can you smell a bottom ( no pun intended ) ?? or are we in for more consolidation before the next fall?? Which currencies will win the gold battle?? What will be the straw that breaks the US$$'s back?? Comment anyone??

(Wed Nov 19 1997 01:21 - ID#280222)
EBber: ( I'm keeping some OJ ) . Concerning your Optionvue, could you give me a 90 second overview? How does it work; what are its strengths and weaknesses?? Thanks...

(Wed Nov 19 1997 01:28 - ID#267277)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 01:50 - ID#20134)
I get the feeling that maybe Russia didn't deliver everything.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 02:18 - ID#413109)
@Love to repeat
Really hate repeating myself, BUT, feel that the "XAU" will turn from here. It looks sick, but it's not supposed to look healthy before a

VRONSKY please email me. Your email address isn't working. thanks.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 02:33 - ID#206379)
@cost per ounce production prices
How can I get current cost per ounce production fees for each of the eleven companies that make up xau index? After the hit taken by Pegasus and the serious declines shown by the entire gold sector production costs appear far more important than they did two weeks ago.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 03:06 - ID#171253)
A delayed note of thanks for your replies and information ( I've been away from the computer from which I can post comments... ) - I have printed out your messages of the other day and plan to do more reading, checking, etc. - somewhere - before making any kind of move

Again, thank you for your time and advice...I'll be hanging around eavesdropping on y'all...

Robert Tkoch
(Wed Nov 19 1997 03:07 - ID#408212)

Using the science of heliocentric astrology, I believe that there will be

an upturn of the US dollar in mid-December, 1997.

I have a question for this group. If, after reading my prediction,

you were to apply it to the gold market, how would you bet? That is,

IF the US$ begins an upswing as predicted, HOW would you bet on gold

or silver to profit from that upswing?

I have attached a text version of the prediction to this message. You can read the original prediction, along with my previous forecasts and their results, at:



Written November 10-14, 1997 by Robert Tkoch

According to various converging heliocentric factors, it seems that the

value of the US dollar will increase in mid-December, 1997.

The Full Moon, which takes place on December 13, 1997, at 6:37 PM

PST, indicates quite a bit of expansive positivity and excitement

surrounding that currency.

Although there is some chance that it could go either way, up or down,

there seems to be a 90% chance of it going up. To be safe, you might

wait and see, then coming in on the trend. But I myself will bet on the

upturn before it begins.

So in all likelihood, it should be profitable to go long the US$ index, or to short the Deutsche Mark.

However, another factor throws some uncertainty into the timing. The

New Moon of November 30, 1997, at 6:14 PM PST, is also mildly

favorable to the dollar, though not nearly so much as the Full Moon

will be. This somewhat positive New Moon will try to counteract the

previous general downtrend, and it is debatable whether it will send the

dollar up or not. So in the period between November 30 and December

13, the dollar may rise somewhat.

I recommend taking a small long position on the US$ Index around Nov.

30, if other factors deem it advisable, and monitoring it closely. Then,

around Dec. 13, I recommend taking a MAJOR long position on the

dollar, especially if the period between Nov. 30 and Dec. 13 has been


I foresee an uptrend lasting at least two weeks after Dec. 13, and possibly much longer. I have not yet looked ahead in time, so I have no exact prediction on the length of the uptrend now. But I recommend liquidating the long US$ positions when the uptrend begins to level off.

Recommended Investments:

Around Nov. 30, 1997: commit 20% of your investment to:

Long the US Dollar

Short the Deutsche Mark

( Or purchase out-of-the-money January calls

on the US$ Index or January puts on the Deutsche Mark. )

Around Dec. 13 --- if the US$ has already increased enormously

( improbable ) , do not invest more. Monitor your investment until it seems

to be levelling off, and then sell.

Around Dec. 13 --- if the US$ has only increased mildly, gone down a

little, or remained the same ( the mild increase is most probable ) , then

commit 80% of your investment to the same as above.

Sell when the trend seems to be levelling off.

( For options purchasers: you may buy February or March options, if you

prefer the long-term. )

For my own investment, I will watch the trends carefully. Probably, I will ignore the Nov. 30 opportunity, concentrating on the Dec. 13 bet.

At the time of this writing ( Nov. 10, 1997 ) , I plan to purchase out-of-the-money puts on the Deutsche Mark around Dec. 13, 1997. I may buy both January and February options.

This change, centering on December 13, 1997, should end the trend

begun in early August, 1997. At that time, I predicted that change exactly. You may read that prediction, along with its results clearly illustrated on a graph, at:$down970804

If, on the other hand, I am wrong, and the dollar falls after Dec. 13, and continues to fall for a few days --- liquidate the investment, and take your losses. However, sometimes, just when the commodity is about to rise, it will suddenly fall sharply, then triggering the "buy" signals which initiate the rise. So it is possible that within one day of Dec. 13, there could be a drop in the US$. This would represent the best buying opportunity.

This bet should be most effective IF the US$ remains fairly level, or

decreases somewhat, in latter November. I will monitor its changes, and

will post any modifications to this prediction here on my site.


Robert Tkoch, November 14, 1997

(Wed Nov 19 1997 03:19 - ID#393224)
Anyone for info overload??

More than 700 charts.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 05:26 - ID#276197)
@what's the latest?
Who knows what was the closing spot for gold in N.Y yesterday and where one can get this info?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 05:42 - ID#316193)
SHM -- Here's the NY closing, PLUS a recommendation to go LONG on
gold today!! ....

(Wed Nov 19 1997 05:42 - ID#150258)
Well the liquor was spilled on the barroom floor.
And the bar was closed for the night.
A little brown mouse came out of his hole,
and danced in the pale moonlight.
Well he licked up the liquor on the barroom floor,
and back on his haunches he sat,
and all night long he was singing a song,
bring on the goddam cat.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 06:16 - ID#401460)

Looks like Gold follows the US$/ Gold more closely than the other currencies. If this is true, then this would mean that as the US$ goes down in relation to the Mk & Yen, the price of Gold in US$ goes down - is this correct? If this is so, then as the Dollar gets stronger vs. the Mk & Yen, Gold should go up which is starting to occur.

What does this mean? I would think that whether they want it or not the US$ is pegged to the Dollar - for now. I have always had the opinion that they were trying to get the currencies on an equal plain for the eventual establishment of one currencies. At least for now the Euro if nothing else. I do not have enough time to review these charts any further right now.

It would be helpful if we could see the chart for each currency above each of these - with corresponding time scale for each.

I do think that some of the answers to our questions can be found in these charts with further comparisons.

High Rise

(Wed Nov 19 1997 06:24 - ID#251165)
can anyone get this to work
Click on the following url and read news. Continue to the bottom of the
page and then click on ( LBMA01 ) . Nothing happens. Can anyone get it to work or is it stuffed?. Thanks.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 06:27 - ID#401460)
@ Nick
Yes, looks like we may have a bottom with the US$ strength. We will have to wait and see.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 06:45 - ID#33164)
Amnesty and Url
Hello Amnesty! RE

Try again? Went in after copying shortcut [did not go directly in] then pasting into "Open" . It's OK.


(Wed Nov 19 1997 06:50 - ID#33164)
Amnesty - Meant to give you a copy..
Hiagain Amnesty-

Here's the 'news'from that URL on LBMA01

Gold firmer in early European trading: Precious metals started higher in Europe on Wednesday but concerns about potential future bad news for gold kept the price under pressure. - Nov 19 4:23 AM EST

Gold marks time, PGMs ticks higher after forecasts: Gold stagnated in a minuscule range on Tuesday while platinum and palladium markets responded with a yawn to new industry forecasts. - Nov 18 10:52 AM EST

(Wed Nov 19 1997 06:54 - ID#26957)
@up a gum tree
When do the registrations for kitco commence?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 06:54 - ID#251165)
@ Colleen
Thanks but maybe I'm stupid. Take 2 says click on code in brackets
for news and prices. So I clicked LBMA01. Nothing.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 06:58 - ID#33164)
Robert Tkoch- Welcome to Kitco!!
Hi Robert!

So glad you could come in for a visit. Your input is much appreciated.

Thank you.

Take care.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:03 - ID#33164)

Copy "LBMA01" [ Numerical 0 , not letter O], with Control C
Then paste [Control V]" inside the little "Search Box" and press "Search"

You'll then get the info pasted in last post to you.


(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:04 - ID#393224)
G'day 
You were asking how to do the fancy stuff.

1 ) start 2 ) programs 3 ) accessories 4 ) character map ( hit dash at top so you can drag it back any time ) 5 ) double click on characters and COPY 6 ) return to Kitco and paste. Can also be done with code numbers.

cheers, k

Crystal Ball
(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:05 - ID#287367)
Instant karma's gonna get you....ABX had to trace out the other shoulder of its upside-down H&S pattern FIRST, before flying. Look for ABX to roar to 20 - 21 in the very near term! Put your cursor on the hypertext and tap your mouse button!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:07 - ID#30116)
pilgrim -- The only advantage to Trade Station seems to be the Power Editor. I'll have more input for you by the weekend.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:11 - ID#339320)
@LBMA Volume

Wednesday November 12, 7:37 am Eastern Time

London October gold turnover reaches record-LBMA

LONDON, Nov 12 ( Reuters ) - The average daily gold clearing turnover in October of 42 million ounces was the highest since the London Bullion Market Association ( LBMA ) began to compile records a year ago, the LBMA said on Wednesday.

The average figure last month was up 22 percent from the 34.3 million ounces recorded in September and 53 percent above the October 1996 level.

``The high level of turnover in October was stimulated by the continuing weakness in the gold price,'' the LBMA said.

Most of the price fall occurred towards the end of the month after the Swiss National Bank said it could sell up to 1,400 tonnes from its gold reserves.

There was also a high level of demand for physical gold especially from the Middle East, ``but turnover was generally driven by the extremely high level of activity in the forward market,'' the LBMA said.

The average afternoon fix price in October was $324.87 per ounce compared to $322.82 in September leading to a steep rise in the turnover value to $13.6 billion daily from $11.1 billion the previous month.

Average silver turnover hit a record of 345.5 ounces, 10 percent up on September and 24 percent up on October 1996.

The average London spot price for silver in October was $5.03 against $4.73 in September so that the value of the daily turnover rose to $1.7 billion, its highest since the LBMA's records began.

The number of transaction for both metals was also higher than the previous month. Silver set a record average of 592 lots but gold's 1,326 daily transfers were below the levels seen in the 1997 first quarter.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:16 - ID#393224)


scroll to bottom JGAI +1.55%


(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:17 - ID#33164)
Nick@A, JTF, EB- Crooks's Theory..
Firstly to NICK@A - Thank you for chart received this morning. Do you think this wave is imminent - as direly imminent as today perhaps?

Printed it out to show to Fred Crooks, who will arrive in Jhbg tonight for a business breakfast talk tomoroow morning.

On hearing that he was due to come up, I took the liberty of inviting him to be our house-guest for tonight, and will take the opportunity to ask him any questions that you chaps may like to send me on e-mail, to print out and hand to him for answers.

He could perhaps, time willing, come onto Kitco to chat to you.

Please let me know? I'm only here briefly - rezoning app. has been postponed till next week, and now a stack of extra stuff to do.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:23 - ID#411259)

It looks as if the COMEX silver stocks are starting to play into the price but I still mistrust the recent draw-down. I posted a couple months ago that I suspected the warehouse numbers. I would not be surprised if a big bunch of silver were to be found sitting in a warehouse down the street from the COMEX or on the docks in London. I've seen this before; it can get ugly real fast when the fat longs wake up one morning to find the world has two or three times the silver than it had the day before. Things move pretty fast when the big money suddenly feels the hook set in the cheek and the steady tug of the reel pulls toward disaster and shame. I have made a career by following the big money but It is always best to have a retreat for the one time in a decade that the big boys get soaked just like everybody else. I still like silver. I see a chance of a vicious run to $5.80 - $6.00 by December. I also see gold killing off any significant rally in silver and, instead, dragging it down to test the recent lows. I'm putting stops in all my silver trades for that day when I wake to find no floor beneath me, only empty air and broken shards of gold and silver far below. I still like the long side of platinum and will continue to add to my longs at this ridiculously low price. Below $400 is always a good price for platinum, but in the face of almost certain supply disruptions again this year and next, I still expect platinum to top $500 early next year and maybe even flirt with $600 later in the year. Gold will break $300, but may not have time to reach $280 before January, when I expect gold to turn around and make a decent run to $350 - $380. I'm long platinum; ambivalent silver; down on gold, but turning bullish in early '98.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:25 - ID#57232)
Morning Colleen! Your meeting with Dr. Crooke noted. Thanks. Hope to find time to compose ideas after cobwwebs clear. Coffee not getting me going yet.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:25 - ID#33164)
Hi Nick!

That's a VERY good start to my Financial 'Encylopaedia" !! {:^}}

Thank you!- and I should be thoroughly ashamed of myself for not knowing it was SOUTH AFRICA!!


(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:27 - ID#339320)
@We ARE on the gold standard NOW.

.... and the world must go back to the good old gold
standard, gold is money, fiat is debt, etc. etc. etc.

Most goldbugs still dont get it.
We ARE on a gold standard NOW......

The day that citizens of the principal currency of the world
were allowed to own gold AUTOMATICALLY put the
U.S. dollar BACK on the gold standard.

If you feel that the goverment is expanding the monetary
base in relation to the gold supply, it is your right to
arbitrate and exchange your dollars for gold at your nearest
bullion dealer. We have a truely open free market gold
standard, and THANK GOD we dont have a goverment
ordained gold standard. Now with most other world currencies
pegged in recent years to the dollar, they TOO are on the gold
standard ( the countries that permit gold ownership or those with
offshore accounts )

So whats the problem?
Why all the complaints?
WHEN they make gold possesion illegal again ( which
WILL happen the moment the public wakes up and
demonstrate with their wallet ) THEN you will have
something to really gripe about.

I think that THIS is the Eastern perspective that
ANOTHER has been trying to plant in this discussion
group. Myself, Im glad the markets see gold as worthless,
just makes it easier for me.


(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:30 - ID#57232)
All: Korean Won continues to slide. "Most feel the stewardship of the International Money Fund will now be needed, especially after the Seoul government's failure to pass nine of 13 reform bills in parliament on Tuesday" LONDON, Nov 18, ( Reuters ) .

(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:34 - ID#36965)
Poet and Reify
Poet, loved your rhyme, meow. I agree with Reify that the gold indexes are severely oversold and a year from now today's price will look like an astonishing bargain.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:48 - ID#249192)
RJ@ 07:23

Why do you target January as the turn for gold?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:53 - ID#235389)
To all: What Cmax said at 07:27 makes perfectly plain common sense to me.
I just never thought about it in those terms before. The more I lurk the more I learn.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 07:59 - ID#26793)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:04 - ID#26793)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:04 - ID#348169)
@ E Commerce
Upbeat article on the possible increase in E Commerce in next few years:

(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:10 - ID#26793)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:18 - ID#26793)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:23 - ID#426220)

Internationally acclaimed market analyst, James Dines, shares his insights and foresights with us about current currency crisis.

Asia is awash in hammered & cascading currencies. The deluge of devaluations in South East Asia is spilling over into other countries on the opposite side of the globe -- and will wreak havoc in world stock markets. The Currency Contagion continues unabated...

(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:24 - ID#390214)
Money Supply's Surge Triggers Debate Over Cause, Effect (they're confused)
"We have no intelligent explanation for why the Fed is pumping

money like a depression was underway," opined the Overpriced

Stock Service newsletter in its November issue.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:25 - ID#33164)
Nick @C
Nick, Hello!- Your 7:04

Thank you for that. I shall practice on my next post to you!


(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:26 - ID#26793)
Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) has opened a crisis within Brazil's
government. Finance Minister Pedro Malan said Brazil would not hesitate to seek an agreement
with the IMF if necessary, while Central Bank chief Gustavo Franco said an IMF deal would hurt
the nation's sovereignty.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:29 - ID#320111)
Hello all,

This is my first post ever to Kitco.....I've been watching the discussion since the late Oct. crash....Have I ever learned a lot!

I would like to ask anyone who may be interested, to respond to the following questions:

1 ) Where do you see gold prices on the spot by Jan. 1, 1998 and why.

2 ) Where do you see gold prices by June/98 and then Jan. 1/99 ..why?

I really enjoy this site ( even the crazies! )


Steve - Perth
(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:33 - ID#284177)



``EIR Talks,'' transcript of November 18, 1997

[EIR Talks airs each Saturday on satellite at 5 PM Eastern, on G7 transponder 14

91 degrees West, and each Sunday EIR talks is on shortwave WWCR at 5PM

Eastern, 2200 UTC at frequency 5.0707 Mhz. For further details, call


EIR: Welcome to EIR Talks, my name is Tony Papert, I'm standing

in for your regular host, Mel Klenetsky, and Lyndon LaRouche has

joined us one the phone from Germany. Lyn, you have said that the

world is days or weeks already into a countdown toward nuclear

Armageddon in the Middle East. Could you please explain?

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, that's from Britain, there is an

orchestration using Israeli puppets to have the Israelis, under either

Netanyahu or people like Ariel Sharon, launch military attacks on a

number of targets in the region, but with the proviso that the Israeli

Government be prepared to use nuclear arsenals to deal with

anybody who resists these Israeli non-nuclear attacks. The obvious

targets are number one, Lebanon, number two, Iraq and Iran ( two

and three ) and number four, Sudan.

The British are orchestrating this in several ways, including the

British operations to have new sanctions put on Iraq, which is a

British Operation. Saddam Hussein is bungling the whole situation --

he doesn't understand what reality is -- but nonetheless the British

are playing him and misguiding him.

Iran is a major target, Sudan is a target. The British have made the

targetting, Israelis have backed it up. Already in the recent period, in

the international press and other circuits, including the coming issue

of Jane's Military, is featuring the threat of nuclear attacks upon

Iraq, Iran, in particular. The discussion of the nuclear arsenal of

Israel, strategic arsenal, being used, is out in the open.

What we have on our hands at present, is the equivalent, in the

Middle East terms, of what happened in 1962 with the Cuban

Missile Crisis. If you compare the present events with that, you say,

wait a minute, they're the same thing.

There were no nuclear missiles actually used in the Missile Crisis,

but the threat of their use, was deadly, and resulted in a fundamental

change in world politics. And, that's what's at stake here. Whether

the Israelis actually use the nuclear weapons or not, is a secondary

question, of course that would open up new dimensions, but the

mere threat of using these weapons, and conducting military

operations under the cover of use, threatened use of these weapons,

is the scenario.

London: Proven and Admitted Harboring Terrorist Operations

Now, my estimate is that, the way you pull this off, if you are a Brit,

you would use terrorists, and remember that out of the thirty

terrorist groups, international terrorist groups, listed by the U.S. State

Department, 26 of them are operated out of London. That is, they

are officially harbored with headquarters in London, or operations in

London, harbored by the British Monarchy openly.

So that most international terrorism that occurs in the world today is

run out of London, with the consent of the British Monarchy. That's

a fact. The British themselves have admitted, that they harbor these

groups. They have stated why they harbor these groups.

So, all you have to do to imagine a sufficiently hard impact of

terrorist groups, coordinated from London, in which the Israelis are

attacked, or Israeli targets, such as embassies, are attacked, in which

a total of about a couple of hundred Israelis are killed. Under those

conditions, Israel will go ape, and Netanyahu, or his successor, such

as Sharon, or some people like that, will immediately get control of

the nuclear arsenal because nobody will resist, their getting control of

the nuclear arsenal, control of it for warfare purposes.

At that point, there will be attacks, including on Iran, Iraq and

possibly also Sudan; Sudan has also been targetted from Israel, for

this attack. All run by Britain. This will put the world in a grip of

terror, and the paradigm will be changed, globally, as it was in 1962.

And the British will have had their way. This is the leading threat

right now, strategic threat.

The White House is in a sense, aware of this, and is trying to handle

it obviously by crisis management methods.-- which will not work.

Unless the Israelis have a coup, in effect, and get these guys out of

there now, to stop this scenario, it will happen. And, unless we

openly stop putting sanctions on Iraq, Sudan and other places. Let's

put the sanctions where they belong.

If twenty-six of the thirty Listed Terrorist Groups are officially

headquartered in London, or harbored there, with the official

admitted approval of the British Monarchy, -- and we have proof of

that -- then WHY are we putting sanctions on other countries for

harboring international terrorism, when 26 out of 30 international

terrorist organizations listed as a menace by the State Department

are all harbored in London?

That's the nature of the issue.

Until we are willing to take on these Israelis, and the Netanyahus and

Sharons, and so forth, and their friends, and take on the British on

this thing, we stand in threat of this terror.

[commercial break]

How Much Can You Get out of Pump-Priming If the Well is


EIR: The entire world now is focussed now on Japan's struggle with

the help of the United States, against financial collapse. As you well

know, a large Japanese bank has failed for the first time since the

Second World War, the government of Japan has announced a $63

billion fund to deal with these collapses. I know that you are

uniquely qualified to tell our listeners what is really going on in and

around Japan and what it means.

LYNDON LAROUCHE: As most people know, that with

knowledge of this crisis was coming up on Monday, of this week,

U.S. Treasury Secretary Rubin communicated an outline of U.S.

potential posture of this matter to Japan, in letters, much of which

was leaked to the public. At at certain point, the Ministry of Finance

official responsible, essentially rejected the formal proposal that had

been made by Rubin, which put the whole thing back to ``Go,'' and

so you had Lawrence Summers, who is number two at the Treasury,

filling in, with a policy which is very much like--I don't know if its

totally Alan Greenspan's policy, but its very much like it--and so,

instead of the kind of measures, which had been proposed by Rubin,

they went to a bailout.

Now, the question is, how much can you get out of pump priming if

the well is dry? In other words, this particular gimmick, which has

been pushed, as of Monday into Tuesday, this gimmick may not

hold up during the coming days. How long this will last before a

bigger crisis hits Japan, is a question mark.

There's a big political factor here, in the sense that what has been

proposed is the conversion of some Japan savings, as backup to

bailout banks.

Now the history of this is that this saving operation was created by

the government in order to provide Japan's normal people, small-,

medium-sized people, shall we say, in terms of income, with a place

of refuge, in which they could put their savings without risk from the

private sector. Now the attempt of the government, through the

Ministry of Finance, to push this thing back into bailing out banks

which are bankrupt, that is people's savings, may cause a political

crisis in Japan. There is no reason to believe politically that this thing

will stick.

It's a big mistake by the Ministry of Finance top officials, it's a big

mistake by the United States to go along with it. We should have

been much more firm on this thing. There is no way you can deal

with the present crisis through bailouts. There's no--

Put Your Money Where Alan Greenspan Has His

Look! For example, people should ask themselves, where should I

put my money? And the answer you should give them is, You

should probably put your money where the Chairman of the Federal

Reserve System puts his money. In money, not in investments. A

significant part of the $5 million that Greenspan lists as his assets is

in cash. Now, why would a man like Greeenspan put 40% of his

holdings in cash? Because he knows that all investments are at risk,

contrary to what he tells you to do. And so we've come to the point

where there is no part of the financial system which can be saved by

bailing it out. If its bankrupt, put it through bankruptcy, bankruptcy

reorganizations, to any bankrupt institution.

But this would mean that the governments of the world would have

to go back to the kind of protectionist measures which were used

during the 1950s before 1959, for example. And, that's what has to

be done.

Until governments get the nerve to do that, there is no bottom to the

present financial crisis. Japan had a euphoric boom in world markets

for a couple of days, how that would last is uncertain, but expect bad

weather on financial markets, to hit again very soon. This is not

over. This is just at the opening phase.

And it's going to become much, much worse, in Europe, as well as

in the United States, as well as in Asia.

EIR: In Korea, the South Korean government just abandoned the

effort to support its currency, the won, I would think this would

have major effects on the crisis in Japan, among other things.

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Absolutely. This is one of the pressures

which is going to hit hard on Japan, because the Korean economy,

the South Korea economy, is very close to the Japan economy. And

this shock from Korea hitting the Japan markets, with this highly

questionable bailout.... A friend of mine has had the right comment

recently on it, saying that this pump priming will stop, when the

Japanese lose the yen, to continue priming the pump. And we're

getting to that point fairly fast.

EIR: We're nearing our break, but I know that you have written a

major piece for the issue of EIR magazine dated November 18,

entitled ``What economics must measure,'' and I wonder if you

could give our readers an advance preview of that major


LYNDON LAROUCHE: As I think people know by now, that on

the fifth of November, I keynoted the morning session of a

symposium on the current crisis, in which I noted that the present

financial, the present world depression, -- let's call it that... Oh, we'll

have to get back to this...

[commercial break]

Steve - Perth
(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:37 - ID#284177)
EIR: We discussed the financial collapse in Japan, and Mr.

LaRouche was just beginning to talk about the disaster going in

Brazil, to the South of our border here.

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, people who've been following

Executive Intelligence Review magazine during the past couple of

months, are aware of the fact, that the financial crises in Mexico,

and in South America, like those which are occurring in the Far East

-- in Southeast Asia and in Japan -- are actually organized out of the

British Commonwealth, centered in London.

Brazil: Another Bottomless Blowup of Our Systemic Crisis

That is, if you look at the financial institutions and agencies, such as

George Soros, which are running these operations, which are

resulting in triggering this depression, you will find that 80 to 90

percent of all of the forces involved, are British. So, this is a British


Brazil is exemplary of that. There is virtually nothing in Brazil of any

significance, behind the Brazilian crisis, which is not British -- and

that includes George Soros.

The Brazil crisis, on the surface, has no bottom. Brazil is a large

nation; it's the largest nation outside the United States, in the

Western Hemisphere, as an economy. It is absolutely -- except,

unless you have a military coup d'etat, which establishes some

degree of sovereignty over the country -- there is no bottom to the

Brazil crisis.

Now, the Brazil crisis will hit while the impact of the crises in

Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, are hitting with the utmost

force. While we're looking at the conference now going on in the

Philippines, in Manila, which is trying to pick up the pieces from the

crisis so far, which will not work. Nothing good will come out of

Manila. This thing is, there'll be a number of nations which will say

good things, but there will be no good decision coming out of

Manila. There'll be a catastrophe -- leading to a worse crisis, in the

weeks following the conference in the Philippines.

In the meantime, we're going to have a blowup in Brazil, which is

going to blow up here. Which means that, in a very short order,

you're going to have waves of crisis hitting the U.S. markets, based

on the combined impact of the Asian, and South American, crises.

You could have a new Mexico crisis very easily, in this context.

In the meantime, all of Eastern Europe is blowing up, including the

former Soviet Union. There's a crisis in Russia, which is major. And

which can hit the European markets hard and fast. The bonds which

are issued by these cities within Russia, these city bonds, these can

go into a chain-reaction effect. And under present conditions, with

the other things going on, Europe can be hit.

In other words, we can, before Christmas, we can find a big hole,

and nothing much more, in the Christmas stocking -- that's the way

it's going. And the developments in Brazil are one of the big bombs,

the big detonators, which can blow out the U.S. financial market.

EIR: You've said that the only solution for the crisis, is that your

policies control the actions of the U.S. government -- and actually,

not just even your policies, but that in a crisis which develops from

minute to minute, from hour to hour, you actually have to have

hands-on control of the economic-financial actions of the U.S.

government. But how can you, as a private citizen, the head of a

small organization, not even an official of any major corporation,

how can you hope to determine the financial policies of the United

States government?

The History of Mankind Is the History of Ideas; In Such

Periods, Ideas Prevail.

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, you know, it's a funny thing --

history. If you look at the course of history, you find that the history

of mankind is the history of ideas. That, between revolutions, which

are based on ideas, that governments dominate, other institutions

dominate. But, whenever you come to a crisis, in the history of

mankind -- like the fall of empires, and we're in that kind of period

now -- you find that suddenly governments which seemed

all-powerful, suddenly crumble. Empires crumble. Financial

institutions which have seemed all-powerful, crumble, go bankrupt,

and disappear. Leave the empty windows staring out at you, where

there was once this bank you thought was invincible.

In such periods, ideas prevail.

The important thing to be in history, the only thing to be, is a person

of ideas. That is, real ideas, not funny gimmicks, but solid ideas,

based on study of science, art, and history, and things of that sort.

Now, you just ask yourself, how did this crisis happen? Well, some

people said it was inevitable. Maybe somebody on Mars did it, or

Venus, or some flying saucer people may have done it, some people

will say.

And you say, how did this crisis really happen? This crisis happened

to a civilization which was going along quite successfully, with all its

shortcomings, until about 30 years ago, when some terrible mistakes

were made, in changes in direction of policy.

Now, these mistakes didn't happen accidentally. They happened

because the society had certain cultural weaknesses in it, which

made it susceptible to these mistakes. But the past 30 years, except

for what we did in the civil rights efforts, in the middle of the 1960s,

I can say fairly, that every change in policy, which we in the United

States, and most other countries, have made, during the past 30

years, has been one succession of one catastrophic mistake after


Who made these mistakes? Well, the mistakes were obviously made

by people with a great deal of influence.

Who were those people?

Well, these were the big foundations, such as the Ford Foundation,

that's part of it. Other institutions which are less famous than the

Ford Foundation. These mistakes were made because people who

were elected to government, or people who were in government, as

appointed or civil service officials, agreed to make these decisions, or

a majority of them.

The same thing is true in other countries. How do these mistakes

occur? The parties, the institutions, the governments, the powerful

institutions of the private sector -- these are the people who pushed

the policies, which led to the catastrophe.

So, all of these institutions, whether government or private, are now

useless. Because they are the people who made the catastrophe

which is now hitting us. Do you expect from these sources, the

ideas, the proposals, which are going to get us out of the mess? Of

course not. What you're going to get is more intelligent people, in

leading institutions, such as government, will turn to people outside

of government, who have not been making these mistakes -- and

turning to them, and saying, ``What do you got to say? We admit

we're bankrupt. We don't know what to do. We are presiding over a

catastrophe, which we made. Tell us, what to do. Tell us how to

correct our errors.''

And they will have to turn to people outside the mainstream. That's

how governments survive ... if they do survive, is by correcting their

errors in that way.

Why Global Warming Is a Scientific Fraud

EIR: Thank you. Next month, in December, in Kyoto, Japan, there's

going to be a world summit, a so-called world summit, on Climate

Change. Now, the 21st Century Science Associates, with which

you're associated, has just issued a 100 page special report, ``The

Coming Ice Age: Why Global Warming is a Scientific Fraud.'' Could

you tell us about this, please?

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, there are several problems here.

One, you have people who are stubbornly, but in a sense, honestly,

mistaken. But then you have people who are dishonestly mistaken.

The leadership of the ecologist movement is a bunch of deliberate

hoaxsters, and I wouldn't give you two cents for their integrity or


That virtually everything we've adopted, since 1970, in the way of

so-called environmentalist rulings, and policies, has been based on an

outright fraud, and that's completely provable.

But then you get into another problem. Let's take the case of the El

Nino. The El Nino is a natural phenomenon. Let me explain

summarily some of the points. Not to go into too much detail, but

just to give a picture of it.

You have a broad stretch of water, from the islands of the

Archipelago in Southeast Asia, such as Indonesia, and so forth,

across the Pacific, along the line of the Equator, toward South

America. Eh? Toward Ecuador, and Peru. This is obviously the part

of the world's oceans, which has the greatest concentration of heat

from the sun. And the water in this area will be very hot, except for

two types of currents: one are the Coriolis forces currents, which is

the waters of the Northern and South Pacific interchanging

temperature with the equatorial waters; and then you have a second

one, vertical, which is the surface waters, which are heated in the

Pacific, being cooled by the waters from the depths of the Pacific.

If you get, for any reason, you get a disturbance of these two cooling

factors, you get an accumulation of temperature in the line across the

Equator. You'll get a process, then, of this hot belt, moving across

the Equator, toward Peru.

Now, this was called by the Spaniards, El Nino, meaning Christ

Child, because it would tend to hit Peru about Christmas time.

Hmm? A perfectly normal phenomenon. But, this also affects,

naturally, what happens to the atmosphere. What happens in the

oceans is very relevant to what happens to the atmosphere.

Therefore, you will get a tendency -- a split in the Gulf Stream, or

the Jet Stream. And you'll get very sudden, and dramatic, weather

changes as a result of the so-called El Nino effect. What is in

progress is no worse than has happened many times in the past,

although some people have tried to build it up, and associate it with

Global Warming.

The problem is, that the weather people tend to ignore

considerations which are beyond their spectrum. And therefore they

will come to improper conclusions, because of factors in determining

weather, which are outside the normal climate kind of stuff that they

consider, statistical kinds of things they look, and therefore they will

make honest mistakes.

A similar thing is, that up until recent time, everybody in the business

who was a scientist, knew that the determinants of long-term heating

and cooling in the planet, had a great deal to do with two things.

We're talking about 10,000-year cycles, and 100,000-year cycles. Or

double 10,000-year cycles, and double 100,000-year cycles.

The Astrophysical Determination of Ice Ages

For example, and these are mostly have to do with the Sun, and

certain precessive changes in the characteristic of the elliptic orbit of

the Earth around the Sun. That is, the way in which the Earth is

positioned with the Sun, relative to the seasons, changes. And you

get periodic ice ages, which we've had for about 2 million years in

the Northern Hemisphere. We are now in a cooling period. And all

these guys, who are talking about global warming, are idiots.

For example. If you had a lot more carbon dioxide. All right, the

idiots will say, that means you're going to have the greenhouse

effect, and you're going to have hot atmosphere on the Earth. Bunk.

If you increase the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere, you're

going to have two effects. Number one, the plants are going to be

very happy. And when plants are happy, they grow. You have a lot

of heat around? The plants love heat, and they love carbon dioxide.

If you have a hot house, a greenhouse you're running, you know.

heat and carbon dioxide and these plants are just so happy, and they

grow so lushly. Hmm?

So, what happens then, is you get also much more rain. The Earth

becomes ... deserts begin to bloom, because of more rain. You have

also an increase of the amount of moisture on the land, and thus you

have a lowering of the level of the oceans. Also, in the process, as

the process continues, you'll get an ice age.

Now, how's an ice age formed? It does not form on water; it forms

through the deposit of snow on land. Huh? And it builds up and

builds up..

For example. During the height of the Ice Age, the last ice age, the

world's oceans were between 200 and 400 feet in level below the

current levels. So that, if you want to talk about weather, and

cooling, and so forth, you have to take in the larger context of things,

including the Solar System. The biggest determinant of the climate,

and conditions on Earth, is the relationship of the Earth to the Sun,

and things that happen to the Sun! And then, the Sun's effects, and

those changes, and their effects on our climate.

So, people in this area, are nonsense. The question, for example, the

ozone hole -- a complete hoax. First of all, it has nothing to do with

cancer. The part of the spectrum which ozone deals with, has

nothing to do with the part of the spectrum which causes skin


Secondly, the ozone hole, to the extent it exists, and there's no such

thing as a simple ozone hole, has been around on this planet for well

over 2 million years. So that, ... Well, I guess we have to wind this


(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:39 - ID#213265)
@the scene
RJ -- Good to hear from you again. It wouldn't be the first time that we saw a huge stock of metals magically 'discovered' one day. That's should always be on the list of things to watch for. Right now, I still view silver as having a couple more days to play to the upside. We'll see what that might be worth as a comment and in dollar value.

Eager Novice
(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:41 - ID#158273)
*shifting uncomfortably in my chair*
Has anyone heard the October housing start information that was released about 10 minutes ago? I somehow missed it.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:47 - ID#26793)
Eager Novice: I heard it. They said it was up a lot but I did not pay much attention to the number.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:52 - ID#284177)
Chinese Leaders begin to get jitters

PS. Apologies for length of last 2 posts, but could not easily get
link for you. Scan fast!

Eager Novice
(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:52 - ID#158273)
Thanks, but starts were expected to be down 2% to 1.47 mil werent they?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:55 - ID#31868)
Couple of quotes right off of the yahoo financial news.

``What is happening is that a dose of reality is hitting the market after the previous over-enthusiastic reaction,'' said Brian Waterhouse, a financial analyst at HBSC James Capel in Tokyo.

The Nikkei's biggest drop in points for 1997 came on the heels of a euphoric rally on Monday and Tuesday.

In Paris, stocks also fell one percent at the start and traders said trading was expected to remain highly volatile.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:58 - ID#78114)
Per CNN: Housing starts were up... 1.2%..... largely on the strength of multifamily starts... single family starts were down sharply in NE.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 08:59 - ID#40865)

Now China gets a touch of the jitters

By DAVID LAGUE, Herald Correspondent in Beijing

China's top leaders were scheduled yesterday to end three days of talks on policies to avert the risk of a financial crisis, with the official media issuing unusually frank warnings of the danger.

The talks in Beijing are understood to have dwelt on sweeping reforms to China's banking system, which is carrying a crippling burden of bad loans to ailing State-owned enterprises.

It is understood that President Jiang Zemin, the Premier, Mr Li Peng, the economic supremo Mr Zhu Rongji and other senior leaders have been involved in the closed sessions at the Jingxi Hotel, but the meetings have not been mentioned in the domestic media.

However, there have been some clear signals in the official media that the authorities understand China is not immune to the financial turmoil now undermining other major regional economies.

The official newspaper of China's major state banks, the Financial News, said yesterday in a front-page editorial that tight control over monetary policy was needed to minimise financial risk.

"Currently the debt ratios of our enterprises are quite high," it said. "The quality of our banks' loan portfolios need to be further improved."

On Monday, the newspaper China Securities also carried a warning that China needed to guard against a financial melt-down. "In recent years, international financial crises have occured one after another," the paper said.

"Although our current financial situation is stable, the potential risks are increasing."

The paper warned that banks saddled with bad debts, the disorderly recovery of loans and a poorly regulated securities market were contributing to the danger for the financial system.

It urged further reforms of the financial system to continue China's economic growth.

"Certainly, the international financial crisis should not make us give up eating for fear of choking," it said.

As financial turmoil has spread throughout East Asia over the past five months, many analysts have assumed that China, thought to be the world's fastest-growing economy, was safe from similar problems.

However, the health of China's State-run banks is probably worse than any in Asia because they have been forced to lend money to failing State-owned companies without much hope of recovering a big proportion of these funds.

Between 14 per cent and 25 per cent of these loans are believed to be unrecoverable, which analysts say means the banks are insolvent. Estimates of the total value of these bad loans vary between $US200 billion ( $286 billion ) and $US270 billion.

It is understood that the top leadership is deeply worried about the danger of a financial collapse.

The official Economic Daily described the threat to the banks in stark terms last week and noted that the Asian financial crisis was a "deep lesson" although China's trade surplus, stable currency and big foreign exchange reserves gave it some advantages over other regional economies.

It said mounting bad loans and the potential for defaults or bankruptcies among underground financial institutions posed a "tremendous financial risk".

It added: "The problem of huge bad loans and economic structure common to South-East Asia also exists to varying degrees in our country."

Steve - Perth
(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:00 - ID#284177)
Aussie Bonds soar on dollar's woes

Eager Novice
(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:01 - ID#158273)
Thank you Donald and Karlito!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:01 - ID#26793)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:04 - ID#260194)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:05 - ID#401460)
@ Housing Starts & Permits
Housing starts UP, permits UP this is positive news now but may be a big negative down the e road - our economy is at maximum production with increasing layoffs, it is my professional opinion that interest rates should go up, but AG can not raise rates at this time he will just wait and let the forces at work take care of them selves. Therefore, the cross currents existing and now being created are all magnified. We will have inflation in many items as others crash. This again and again reminds me of 1972-73. A lot of builders and their banks could get hammered next year when these homes dont sell. Been there done that people. I like my position in Gold and Resource stocks at this point in time. Much better than a bunch of unsold homes. See press releases of layoffs, etc. etc.

All of this is happening at a time when we have an administration that we can not trust - who in the world has any idea which numbers are accurate and not manipulated. We are having large layoffs but the employment rate and job creation numbers just keep getting better and better. Are these just released housing numbers true or are they a lie? What is true for centuries, is that Slick Willys come and go but Gold is always there.
Gold @ 306.40 XAU 75.23

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:07 - ID#26793)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:11 - ID#33164)
Tolerant1- yahoo URL?
Hi Tolerant1!

Please will you post the url for the Yahoo news? Mine has 'expired'for some unknown reason.

Thanks. {:-}}

Take care

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:13 - ID#401460)
Did not hear this part of the report, Single Family Starts down, thanks. Are they really down? If they are, this will help moderate the economy. They will need the multifamily housing for all of those people who may have to move out of their big homes when those 125% loans and 30%+ credit cards come due.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:15 - ID#240220)
WEDNESDAY IN TOKYO: NIKKEI suffers worst fall in 1997 - DOWN 884 points, equivalent to a drop of 5.3% to 15842. This obliterates half of the BOJ-RALLY over the previous two days. It bears repeating that ONLY the BOJ has the motive and financial clout to so dramatically reverse the Nikkeis KAMIKAZE dive!

Another startling announcement make in TOKYO this week, which may have important ramifications for the US Dollar, T-bonds, and Wall Street:

Yen demand to grow in Asia as dollar link ends - BOJ

TOKYO, Nov 17 ( Reuters ) - Demand for the yen in the Asian region will naturally increase now that many Asian countries have stopped linking the value of their currencies to the U.S. dollar, Bank
of Japan ( BOJ ) executive director Takashi Anzai said on Monday

It would be only natural for currency transactions of the yen against local Asian currencies to increase after their departure from the dollar peg system, Anzai told an international symposium on European economic and monetary union and the yen.

He added: This applies to both the private and the public sector.

Germany, Nov 19 - The Bundesbank announces it will start using the Yen as part of its reserves to reduce its US Dollar risk.

ORACLE QUESTION ON Behalf of Far-East Public & Private Sectors: So why do we need to continue to hold US Treasuries - DENOMINATED IN US DOLLARS?!

Whereas the BOJ can ONLY momentarily deter the slide in Nikkei - as we have just seen, it will not resolve the underlying problems plaguing Japan and the rest of Asia. It is a ruse to confuse.

To appreciate the grim financial and economic conditions - becoming worse daily - one must examine the problems. This weekend an outstanding article was posted at GOLD-EAGLE, which describes in minute detail what is happening in Asia.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:16 - ID#348169)
@Gold and Silver Daily Charts
Dec. Gold's ( or any month for that matter ) dailt chart still looks bad. Silver's daily chart looks constructive. If Gold keeps bumping up against the downward sloping line formed by connecting all the previous highs and cannot break-out convincingly then it is doomed to ratchet downward once again. IF this should happen it will probably ( as RJ points out ) take Silver down with it. IF this scenario should play out, given Silver's recent ( last 4 months ) resiliency in the face of Gold's continuing decline, we will be presented with another very opportune moment to go long Silver futures. IMVHO
Check out the URL below ( gratuitously provided previously by EB and others ) and click on the select daily charts for Gold and then, afterwards, Silver.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:17 - ID#31868)
Hi Colleen:

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:20 - ID#31868)
HighRise: "Slick Willys come and go but gold remains." Hilarious, you are killin me. Hilarious. Cheese and crackers that would make a fabulous headline for the newspapers.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:21 - ID#26793)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:25 - ID#31868)
tick, tock, tick tock

Indictments expected soon in campaign finance probe

Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press

WASHINGTON ( November 19, 1997 02:23 a.m. EST ) -- A Justice Department task force expects to seek indictments soon of two figures under investigation in their campaign finance probe for arranging contributions that disguised the identities of the real donors, law enforcement officials said Tuesday.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:27 - ID#348169)
"If you wish good advice, consult an old man." --- Romanian Proverb
Where's Oldman lately anyhoo?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:28 - ID#57232)
@After the turning point
Steve-Perth: Lyndon Larouche's comments about our world financial situation are worth reading, especially since he has been warning of this for some time.

I find the business about England being behind a variety of terrorist activities hard to believe, without substantiation. However, there may be powerful groups in England who have traditionally used terrorist organizations for their own personal gain ( separate from the elected government ) , just as it seems that factions within the US government are suspected of doing the same thing. One problem about having a concentration of power of any kind - including intelligence - is that it can be corrupted.

I no longer ignore what Lyndon Larouch says, although I do substatiate what he says from other sources before I take it seriously.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:29 - ID#26793)

-- Popular resentment of pushy experts from the International Monetary Fund is
rising fast in Thailand. As IMF workers rush around the country telling Thai
politicians how to fix the ailing economy, they've become instant raw material for
TV satirists.

In one skit--on Seven Star Comedy, a variety show--three IMF officials charge
into the home of a Thai family with its own financial woes. The officials
high-handedly lecture family members and tell them to stop whining, cut spending,
and start saving. For dinner, the IMF men bring in a succulent fish, let each family
member admire it--and then whisk it away, leaving each with a bowl of rice and a
grumbling stomach.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:29 - ID#284177)
ABC ( American ) News "Standoff with Iraq". A heap of excellent links.
Top propaganda from USA, with interactive charts, battle ships. Very exciting stuff. The Yanks might even win the war with this web site!

Steve - Perth
(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:34 - ID#284177)
JTF: Having "read" some of La Rouche's unreadable books on Economics, I share your views exactly about "God"! God now has a radio show! I find it very hard to get my mind around his "Opus Deo" stuff, etc. Bizarre might sum it up. However, he does seem to call it fairly well on World forecasts. He does have a HUGE network of informants throughout the Third World, in addition to the Western countries. He obviously DETESTS the Monarchy in England. I think it is his Yankee bias coming out. That aside, sometimes he has some interesting stuff. Spit the bones out. There are a few big bones occasionally. Steve in Perth...

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:46 - ID#28594)

Good Morning All.

I would like to revisit, for a brief mornent, two news stories that were effectively quashed: the Comex-UBS affair, and the Min-Fin bonds.

FT, Nov 15-16, 1997
Russia blacklists 11 western banks after market turmoil

Russias central bank yesterday said it would refuse to deal with 11 western investment banks...Chase, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse First Boston, UBS, Salomon Brother, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Morgan Grenfll, Banque Nationale de Paris.

The move follows a severe liquidity crunch in Russian financial markets triggered by the global volatility three weeks ago. Most of the banks were unavailable for comment; however CSFB said the issue had been resolved: We failed to deliver the MinFin bonds on time because a lot of MinFin bonds HAVE BEEN STOLEN , so we had to double-check their serial numbers.
It is a disgrace that the London market, the biggest capital market in the world, should have to be put on the right course by the Russian market.

Analysts said that the problems arose after western banks short-sold MinFins, dollar denominated Russian government bonds.

When the local Russian investors sought to buy bonds, the banks were unable to buy securities to settle the trades.

According to an analyst working for western owned brokerage in Moscow: It was just sloppy. They had shorted the market and when the Russian banks started buying they simply refused to deliver.

And this, posted on the

11-15-97 Anonymous: There is a bear squeeze in progress involving Russian
MinFin bonds. Investors had bet that the London Club deal would be closed in
December, which spurred them to buy the Russia WIs ( when-issued ) and sell
Minfins as a hedge. As the price of Russian debt took a further beating this week, the supply of Minfins dwindled, making short-covering expensive.

I would argue that the underreporting of these two stories reveal the extraordinary fragility of the international banking system. ( The FT had the MinFin bonds on the front page of their Weekender, but it has essentially disappeared from view, no follow-up, no mention in Mondays WSJ.

Folly, Frenzy, Fear.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:52 - ID#31868)
SDRer: I believe that the Internet will be the saviour of many in this financial crisis. People now have access to information from all over the planet.

They can sit quietly, slowly absorb information and make decisions for themselves. Without the constant babble of sound and vocal puppet intrusion into their minds.

Thoughts which they may have never seen before. There is nothing like the feeling of "why didn't they tell me that!? to motivate someone to dig a little deeper.

tick, tock, tick, tock

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:52 - ID#33164)
Robert Tkoch's Current Predictions
Hello All!


Has anybody read Robert Tkoch's Current predictions [Post 03:07 19th Nov] ?

His predictions [ Aug and Sep 97] were originally given to us by you, Nick@A? He seems to have been spot on, doesn't he?

I'd be interested to learn a bit more about Long and Short Term investing..Timing would seem a little dicey for a beginner?

Though he speaks of Currencies [US$ & Deutsche Mark], I see in his post that he asked how the Kitcoites would apply his 'currency' advice to the Gold Market.

Would this apply only to Gold SHARES? What about bullion?

And what about those mines that 'hedge' ?

Could someone please comment on this?

Thanks in advance.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:53 - ID#28571)
Love that La Rouche guy. Its too bad that Red Skeleton passed away but we will not be without slapstick as long as Lyndon is around. The English are running Isreal---Great. Maybe next they will learn how to built a clutch for Jaguars that will last 1000 miles. The Royal family almost lost their throne over a funeral and yet they can order the Israelis around--marvellous. The had better stock up on F16 parts because if they are playing the part of Cuba in a missile crisis we know a blockade is next.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:54 - ID#287367)
I like the proverb.

Sign o' the times, or is it coming to this? I called my broker for a quote on XAU--

"Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index: 0.00 down 75.23

(Wed Nov 19 1997 09:57 - ID#426220)
Rothschilds, Soros & RJ CANNOT BE WRONG
Rothschilds, Soros & RJ CANNOT BE WRONG

We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the Poor Mans Gold -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year Goldbugs Weekly Comment.

In Cormiers report "Silver stocks, there ain't too many!" - posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Lets capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%

Silver Standard ( SSO ) ............UP 57%

International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%

First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) .......UP 86%

United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%

Clifton Mining ( CFB ) .............Down 4%

Thats an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report "Silver stocks, there ain't too many!" - the curent daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:

(Wed Nov 19 1997 10:05 - ID#57232)
Crystal Ball: Did your Broker believe that the XAU was 0.0?

New Gold Demand Trends No. 21
(Wed Nov 19 1997 10:09 - ID#377179)
and Weekly Commentary now up
on the WGC site

Crystal Ball
(Wed Nov 19 1997 10:14 - ID#287367)
It was one of those "automated" quote thingies. You know, "Press 1 for quotes..." Hard to get a hold of a human these days.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Nov 19 1997 10:16 - ID#287367)
The worm turns
Gold now only down 30cents, silverado UP 9 cents, platunium UP another $7!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 10:17 - ID#288155)

To: Donald@Emperor.of.News.Stories

Donald, either spring of 97 or fall of 96, there was a front page news story re: new settlement arrangements between a clique of international banks.

I dont want to post this until I can recover the hard facts; the article said that transactions which couldnt be completed would be ACCEPTED as completed in the currency of the originating bank: i.e., if the transaction was to pay an obligation in dollars, but the originating bank started the process with yen, the end bank would accept the yen as payment for the dollar obligation.

It stuck in my mind as a superior way to lose a great deal of money if one were on the wrong end of the cash flow...

I have been unable to bring this story back from archives. Would you like to have a go? ( You seem to get superior results! )


To: Tolerant1@Wise.Thought

"When we are planning for posterity, we ought to remember that virtue is not hereditary." Thomas Paine

(Wed Nov 19 1997 10:21 - ID#31868)
SDRer: Excellent.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 10:22 - ID#285233)
nomercy-excellent post on money supply surge. I think that the FED has either willingly or unwillingly started the printing presses since the M2 and especially M3 are increasing at an unprecedented rate. The steepest increase since late 1970 when M3 grew at around 9-12%. At this point, year-to-year basis we are running M3 up at almost 13%. As we know inflation is directly related to the growth of money supply after discounting for impact of productivity etc., regardless what the press says about the causes of inflation. Either the FED sees deflation on the horizon and this may be their response ( pre-emptive strike ) or ( more likely ) this tremendous demand for $$$$ is driven by the speculative financial bubble of all time that the FED can not stop without driving interest rates up a lot. And we know waht the impact of that would be.
I'd interested what you think about it!!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 10:26 - ID#348169)
Date: Tue Nov 18 1997 23:04
The Major ( ( LGB ) ) ID#372425:
Soloman and Merril both downgraded PGU.I would be very carefull
with that one,as their creditors haven't spoken yet.Waiting to see what they have to say would be prudent in this case.
BGO on the other hand is real opportunity if you don't mind a little risk in Gold going lower.I don't think it will see the 280 without more obvious and blatant manipulation by the CB'ers. Whats really strange here is is being shorted down on well placed and eagerly publicized rumors,yet when they are dispelled they are twisted around to keep the price down.How long can this go on being
so obvious to even the little folks like myself?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 10:36 - ID#373403)
Analysis scoop?
If the big runup of the Nikkei a few days ago was induced by either BOJ interevention or pressure on financial institutions to boost the market, then yesterdays drop might have been the escape of the smaller investor. This will leave the already troubled banks and insurance companies with more losses if the patch does not hold.

Nationalistic egos becoming ruffled by IMF? Could be the beginning of global protectionist policymaking. S Korea and Brazil want the dough but do not want the IMF austerity enforcement and try to get other central banks support directly. I hear the distant rustling of U.S. Treasuries stampeding across the Pacific.


(Wed Nov 19 1997 10:48 - ID#31868)
The buy and hold investor is about to get the wake up call of his/her life in the United States. The amount of money that will be lost is terrifying. The Mutual Fund holder is going to get slaughtered.

I would not want to be owed a penny in any form from the United States Government.

Tick, tock, tick, tock...
(Wed Nov 19 1997 10:53 - ID#287358)
hot damn------in s. california with egg sucking aol for my browser. whosaid what and when?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 10:56 - ID#234311)
Tolerant, re your 10:48 -- please explain. Something newsworthy?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 11:12 - ID#287358)

who said what and when did they say it?

aol should go the way of the!

cherokee------!; ) harvester-of-the-corn-speculators

(Wed Nov 19 1997 11:12 - ID#259226)
Register System
Hello, I am the first one here!!!

Crystal Ball
(Wed Nov 19 1997 11:15 - ID#287375)
Metals and XAU very volatile this morning. I see SIZ7 hit 527. $6 is not far away!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 11:18 - ID#371471)

Re: comments on money supply

M2 according to the Fed St. Louis is not rising at "unprecedented"
rates. It is rising, but only 5.4% according to late figures from
this regional fed. Even base growth is not excessive, with year
on year base growth only 5.4%. I will admit that this is perhaps
a bit faster than last year, but it is far from excessive, and
certainly is not "un-precedented."

The Gold bulls want to see inflation behind every economic
circumstance, and sometimes that is pushing the envelope a bit too
far a bit too quickly.


(Wed Nov 19 1997 11:18 - ID#31868)
Nothing noteworthy as such. My gut feel is that the market in the US is not taking this Asia, Japan situation seriously. In addition, they are being told to remain calm. Long term investors should stick to their game plan.

The world markets are a far different place then they were when the majority of investors got in. This is exactly what people were told to do in 1929.

In my opinion the devastation rolling over the ocean to the US will obliterate the Mutual Fund and long term investor, not to mention the people buying the dips.

tick, tock, tick, tock

(Wed Nov 19 1997 11:31 - ID#258427)
@da..Da...registration works ...
Bart...neat password ...Wish it were true...Seriously, THANK YOU FOR THE PASSWORD SYSTEM...Will help this site greatly...

(Wed Nov 19 1997 11:32 - ID#335190)
USofA Banking @ Consolidate=Big get bigger
November 19, 1997
Stocks edge up; nervous about troubled Tokyo market

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Blue-chip stocks edged up in early trading Wednesday but Wall Street was uneasy at the prospect of further weakness in the Tokyo market after the Japanese government said no taxpayers' money will be used to rescue the country's troubled banks.
Around 10 a.m. EST, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 4.67 points at 7,655.49, getting back some of Tuesday's 47-point loss. In the broader market, declining issues led advances by a small margin.

The Nasdaq composite index was off 0.63 at 1,599.81.

Investors ran to the safety of bonds, boosting the bellwether 30-year Treasury by 3/32, which lowered its yield to 6.07 percent from Tuesday's close of 6.08 percent. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The spotlight was on U.S. banking stocks as the industry continued to consolidate. Late Tuesday, a $16.6 billion deal to merge First Union Corp. and CoreStates Financial Corp. was announced, the sector's biggest link-up so far. The two bank stocks had delayed openings.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 11:44 - ID#426220)
Rothschilds, Soros & RJ CANNOT BE WRONG
We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the Poor Mans Gold -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year Goldbugs Weekly Comment.

In Cormiers report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! -posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Lets capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%

Silver Standard ( SSO ) ...............UP 57%

International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%

First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) ..........UP 86%

United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%

Clifton Mining ( CFB ) ................Down 4%

Thats an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! - the curent daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:

(Wed Nov 19 1997 11:46 - ID#335190)
Fast Track=MAI=SDR @ Vancouver Canada & Clinton & APEC
November 19, 1997
Setbacks seen tying Clinton's hands at APEC

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton goes to a summit of Pacific Rim leaders this weekend empty-handed and badly weakened after major setbacks in Congress on trade and emergency aid to help stabilize Asia's turbulent markets.

Clinton wanted to go to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) forum in Vancouver, Canada, with so-called fast track trade negotiation authority firmly in hand along with $3.5 billion for international bailouts to help countries facing financial crises such as in Southeast Asia, which has upset global stock markets. But Congress rebuffed him on both requests and Clinton will be able to do little more than promise other APEC leaders that he will have better luck in 1998.

"I think he is going to go there in a significantly weaker position," said Judith Lee, international trade expert with the Washington law firm Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher. "I don't think there is any way around that. It really diminishes his stature and momentum going into the talks."

U.S. officials also said they have authority to complete negotiations on liberalizing financial services markets. The deadline for completion of talks is Dec. 12, and trade analysts fear Clinton's loss on fast track could give many countries reason to hold back. The financial services negotiations are also likely to be discussed during APEC.

APEC groups Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and the United States.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 11:46 - ID#258129)
RJ, your 07:23 is great

(Wed Nov 19 1997 11:50 - ID#258427) supply figures
The 5% range you quote is not the same number that I have been reading about here on kitco...M3 in the 13% range ... can someone come up with the money supply figures? Surely Vronsky has the numbers...

(Wed Nov 19 1997 11:54 - ID#222186)
Currency Crisis -- A Solution
There are two knids of economies: the ones besieged by currency crisis ( Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, Japan, Brasil, etc. ) and those that have yet to be ( US, UK, Germany, etc. ) The countries of the second group may have a few months before the wave washes over them.

The problem is of excess liguidity. When central bankers are confronted with excess liquidity, they usually mop it up by selling government bonds and take in excess cash. In the countries experiencing currency turmoil, this is not an attractive option. Selling bonds causes the price of bonds to decline and interest rates to rise. This would choke their already sputtering economies.

The solution? If both the public and private sector were inclined and encouraged to own gold, then the excess liquidity would be mopped up without driving up interest rates artificially. This is a far better solution than holding US$ or US$-denominated debt, which would make the US$ even stronger vs. local currencies. Holding gold, on the other hand, would restore confidence and strength in the local currencies.

Central bankers are not totally stupid. This solution will occur to them, I would say within a month or two.

Comments are most welcome.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 12:38 - ID#350263)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 12:42 - ID#57232)
Silver rally - trying new password
Looks like our silver rally is still intact, but then the general markets are quiet. Please beware a downturn ( especially in gold ) if the markets head south. RJ -- thanks for your post -- always appreciated.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 12:43 - ID#259226)
Test posting

(Wed Nov 19 1997 12:45 - ID#335190)

Can't Open Page /inetpub/wwwroot/comments/gold/1997q4/1997_11/971119.123504.6pakeeeee.htm

Good ol' boy
(Wed Nov 19 1997 12:46 - ID#26344)
It is with sadness that I have witnessed Pegasus's once proud gossamer wings buckle, bringing the Company crashing to the ground. I have know the company for some time, seen it successfully bring many low graxce open pit gold mines into procuction. The lesson learned is that there is not substitute for being a low cost producer. So what is it all about Alfie. Too many people planting tulips. Too many gold company executives breaking bread with too many bankers, drinking too much wine, bringing too many high cost projects inot producion which are now spewing rivers of blood. Amax Gold's Fort Knox come to mind. In the end it will be hezlthy for the industry. Virtually all of South Africa's should go down.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 12:56 - ID#335190)
Layoffs=Stock Market Rise @ The Suits, don't get IT!
November 18, 1997
Inco to cut workforce, capital spending to improve profits

TORONTO ( CP ) - Inco is cutting more than 500 jobs in Canada, closing
mines and slashing capital spending to try and boost profits in the face of continued weak world metals prices. The Toronto-based nickel giant announced Tuesday it will cut seven per cent - about 500 jobs - from its workforce of 6,500 in Sudbury, Ont.

Inco chairman Mike Sopko said the cuts will come through early retirements, rather than layoffs.

November 18, 1997
Noranda to restructure operations

TORONTO ( CP ) - Noranda Inc., Canada's largest resource conglomerate, is shedding its forestry, oil and gas subsidiaries so it can focus on the more profitable metals and mining sector. The restructuring of the Toronto-based holding company, which is expected to produce some job cuts at head office, calls attention to a growing trend in big business.

"They're moving towards 'pure play,' which means concentrating on the
businesses that they do best," said Craig Campbell, the partner in charge of the forest industry group at Price Waterhouse in Montreal.

"It's happening globally and it's happening more and more in Canada ...
Bell Canada, Canadian Pacific, Power Corp. - they've all gone in the same
direction. It's all being driven by shareholders ( who are ) ... demanding
higher share value."

November 17, 1997
GM to cut 42,000 jobs, says newspaper

DETROIT ( AP ) - General Motors will cut 42,000 jobs in the next five
years through attrition and the selling and closing of plants, USA Today
reported Monday.

GM spokesman John Mueller declined comment Monday on possible job cuts, but the report was in line with what analysts and other published reports have said for months: the world's largest automaker is reducing its
workforce to become more competitive.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 12:58 - ID#7568)

M3 is a broader definition of money supply than M2 and as such is a more reliable read. The main differences between M2 and M3 are in trying to segregate 'institutional' money from 'private' money. I'm not sure what the rational for this is, but regardless, money is money. If the money is held in a large time deposit ( above $100,000 ) or an institutional money market fund it is most certainly available for spending. To focus on a subset of the whole and draw comforting conclusions about the whole when the whole is in fact telling a different story is not a robust
analytical technique. The fact remains that the broadest, and therefore the most meaningful measure of money supply, is growing at its fastest rate in decades.

In the article pointed to by nomercy, this was brushed off with the erroneous remarks that:

1. money was flowing out of stocks and into cash thus increasing the money supply.

This statement is simply false. Stock transactions have zero effect on money supply unless the purchase or sale of stock is based upon a bank loan which is either generated or repaid. If the market declines and people sell stocks and repay loans which were used to finance those
purposes the money supply will decline.

2. Companies are turning to banks for financing because bond spreads were increasing and thus it was cheaper to finance through the banks.

If this statement is true, then it is an exact indication of a too easy money supply. If the markets determine that a rate of x must be paid for capital and the banks offers a rate of x - something because the government has set the official lending rate at easier terms than the market then this is expansionary policy. It is policy designed to increase liquidity against the market's perception.

I believe that the Fed is excruciatingly aware of what is going on and they believe that it is better to err on the side of inflation in these circumstances. The current environment can best be compared to 1987 only this time we are more like Japan was then. The biggest surprise of 1988
and 1989 was the strong inflationary growth throughout the world. I believe this scenario will be repeated in part but the clock will probably run faster. My guess is that the bond market rally
which we are currently seeing will unwind a lot quicker than the 87 rally either because the Fed will be forced to intervene or the data flow will convince investors that the long end of the curve is not going to be such a friendly place.

A few weeks back I pointed out that lumber prices had fallen below 300 for the first time in a couple of years. This trend has since reversed and we are now in the 325-330 range. Reversals in lumber are historically not good for bonds.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:08 - ID#26368)
By Bridge News

Hong Kong--Nov 19--Spot gold eased from late New York levels due to profit-taking from Japanese traders after gains overnight in the US,
dealers said.

Spot platinum rose on follow-through buying and short-covering following overnight price increases overseas, while spot palladium was steady
on the back of firm platinum price, they said. * * *

Although spot gold rose overnight on US funds' short-covering, many regional dealers were still reluctant to buy large volumes of spot gold today
as bearish market sentiment remained, dealers said.

Spot platinum extended its overnight gains during the Asian trade as many Japanese traders bought for short-covering triggered by Johnson
Matthey's recent released bullish report on the metal, dealers said.

The report sees a global supply deficit of around 320,000 ounces this year, which is forecast to support spot platinum price to range at US
$400- 450 per ounce over the next 6 months.

"The ( spot ) platinum price broke over the previous resistance at $390 per ounce, so many market players rushed to cover their short positions
here," a dealer in Tokyo said. "Market sentiment has been changed to become relatively bullish ( from previous bearishness ) ."

On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, active short-covering pushed platinum futures to hit limit-up, TOCOM dealers said. They said the limit-up
on TOCOM platinum also kept the spot platinum price from surging further.

Spot palladium was steady following price firmness of spot platinum, dealers said.

"Short covering led TOCOM palladium Apr 98 contract to hit limit-up. This kept the market sentiment bullish throughout the day," one Japanese
dealer said.

Spot precious metals prices are in US dlrs per ounce:

(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:24 - ID#242251)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:24 - ID#426220)
Leading US Economist sharply criticizes Greenspans policy regarding gold.

In an absolutely perfect world, no central bank would need to
hold any gold. David Ricardo, the great supply-side, classical
economist of the 19th century, wrote in his Principles of Political Economy in London of 1821, that When money is working at the peak of efficiency, the central bank need hold no gold.

Very few opponents of "a gold standard" know what it is or how it works or how many different ways there are to link paper money to gold.

If the Eurocrats understood that, they would go back to the
drawing boards and build a monetary system from that assumption. This would require them to first fix the Eurocurrency to something the markets would understand as being a reliable unit of account. What? The answer is the dollar, the world's key currency, except that the dollar still wobbles around relative to the gold price. The Euro would be possible, but only if the dollar is first fixed in value to gold. Then, the European nations in the Eurocurrency system would have a credible unit of account as their anchor.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:27 - ID#293306)
well I'm in
Bart - If this is registration, then it is leakier than
a pheasant-shaped water tower on the first day of hunting
season. Of course, I could have expected as much, with
the kind of activity that passes for normal at Kitco.
Open the gates, everyone, here come the wackos.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:31 - ID#293306)
Dagnabit, who stole the cinammon roll?
Mr. Mooney, could you please put your prediction in plain
English? Lots of foreign correspondents couldn't make
out exactly what it was you were saying, and they've got
deadlines coming up. Are you just taking RJ's comments
from earlier this morning and adding "ditto"?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:32 - ID#293306)
for anyone who wants to post under chrismason
try the password "activity"

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:32 - ID#253222)
New Setup
Registration is now up and running. If you're having any problems accessing or posting send an email to with a description of the problem.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:33 - ID#162148)

Spud Master
(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:36 - ID#273112)
please nuke "chrissmasson"
with extreme prejudice.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:37 - ID#293306)
please nuke spud master
Oh high for about two minutes and add butter


(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:40 - ID#293306)
posting from two computers at the same time
This hasn't solved a thing. We're still going
to here from KGB, Bernatz, Howler, ANOTHER,
Big Trader, leaner and a host of other ditwads
whenever they so choose.

Tyler Rose
(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:55 - ID#373164)
Thanks, Bart!

I believe this new system will work. Thanks, Bart, for sticking with it and trying to cut down on the extraneous posters.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:56 - ID#293306)
Bart - you're going to have to block a lot more than "Hotmail"
Try rocketmail,,, for starters

(Wed Nov 19 1997 13:58 - ID#287358)
Testing to see if I can post using Chrismason's password.

mace chrison
(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:01 - ID#299159)
ankle bone connected to the foot bone
For mace chrison, the password is "adapter"

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:02 - ID#287358)
Bart: I don't know if this is a problem or not. Chrismason revealed his password. I was able to post using his password.

Steve Puetz

mace chrison
(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:06 - ID#299159)
indeed you can
that last post was not from the original chrismason.

See the problem, Bart - All someone has to do is
give their password out and anyone can post under
their name. You may not think anyone would do
this but a can think of a lot of instances where
someone would tell someone else by e-mail what
their password was and allow them to post under their
handle ( e.g. Bernatz, KGB, howler, prognosticator,
or MILLIONAIRE if you want an unsavory poster ) .
Or, if someone found out a password, ( not that difficult,
they're chronologically alphabetical, obviously ) they
could have someone else kicked off by posting libelous
statements under their handle.
Can't you set something up like SI?
Is it that difficult?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:12 - ID#335190)
A Workingman, Without a Job, is nothing @ The Suits don't get IT!
November 19, 1997
Dow Jones to cut DJMarkets investment, jobs; take charge

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Publisher Dow Jones & Co. Inc. said Wednesday it will "substantially" cut its multi-year reinvestment plan in its troubled Markets unit, reduce jobs and take a "large," mostly non-cash charge .

The publisher of the Wall Street Journal said it will cut the 4,000-person Markets workforce by 200-300 people through layoffs and attrition. It said the $650 million multi-year investment plan, announced last January, was being "substantially scaled back."

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:16 - ID#335190)
Stocks @ Close
November 19, 1997
Closing stock market indices

LONDON ( Reuters ) - Here is how major stock markets outside the United States ended Wednesday.
LONDON - A $5.3 billion bid by Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. for top fund manager Mercury Asset Management enlivened a British stock market, which otherwise endured a second day of thin, directionless trade. The FTSE 100 closed at 4,830.1, down 15.3 points, or 0.32 percent.
FRANKFURT - German stocks mounted a late Dow-inspired rally to close higher after spending most of the day largely static in thin trade. The DAX-30 index closed at 3,834.82, up 1.35 points, or 0.04 percent. In later screen-based trade, the IBIS DAX index ended at 3,876.90, up 32.76 points, or 0.85 percent.
PARIS - The French market closed higher after a cautious, volatile day. The CAC-40 index closed at 2,790.56, up 7.95 points, or 0.29 percent.
ZURICH - Swiss stocks ended a directionless session little changed on moderate volume. The Swiss market index closed at 5,571.7, down 2.5 points, or 0.04 percent.
TOKYO - Investors dismayed by dwindling hopes of government financial support dumped bank and brokerage stocks, driving the key Tokyo stock market index down more than 5 percent to close back below the psychologically important 16,000-point line, brokers said. The 225-stock Nikkei average closed at 15,842.46, down 884.11 points, or 5.29 percent.
HONG KONG - Hong Kong stocks closed lower but pared losses in late trade following news of bullish sale prices at a government land auction, although brokers were still cautious on the near-term outlook. The Hang Seng index closed at 10,154.36, down 90.82 points, or 0.89 percent.
SYDNEY - Resource stocks dragged the Autralian stock market to a weaker close amid concerns over a decline in Asian demand. The All Ordinaries index closed at 2,442.3, down 26.0 points, or 1.05 percent.
JOHANNESBURG - South Africa's stock market closed in the lower ranges from an already weak start as buyers kept away, fearing repercussions from the continuing turmoil in Asian emerging markets, dealers said. The All-Stock index closed at 6,391.7, down 27.3 points, or 0.43 percent. The All-Gold index closed at 790.7, up 9.5 points, or 1.22 percent, while the
Industrial index closed at 7,914.5, down 45.9 points, or 0.58 percent.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:24 - ID#287207)
If the multiple password user issue becomes a problem then everybody who abuses that part of the system can be prevented from posting and with ease and no loss. Peace, order and good government is what is lacking on this site.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:25 - ID#57232)
Oh well -- looks like our security has been breached already.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:25 - ID#335190)
Interest Rate Rise @ Bank of Canada
November 19, 1997

Thiessen sends signal about higher interest rates

OTTAWA ( CP ) - Canadians can expect short-term interest rates to start rising soon, the governor of the Bank of Canada said today.

Gordon Thiessen told a news conference the excess capacity or slack that has been keeping inflation low will likely run out at the end of 1998. And that means the bank must start moving away from stimulative monetary policy to ensure Canada stays within an inflation target of between one and three per cent.

The bank continues to forecast average annual growth of four per cent through the balance of this year and next and Thiessen said unemployment will be coming down. But he couldn't say when.

In the meantime, the bank will face the challenge of setting policy so that the economy will continue to grow at full potential while keeping inflation low, Thiessen said.

"Preserving low inflation is a prerequisite for making the economic expansion a long-lasting one," he said. "It is by prolonging the expansion that we are going to achieve sustained reductions in unemployment."

That will mean a gradual moderation over the medium term in what the bank believes has been a high degree of stimulation in the money supply through low interest rates, Thiessen added.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:26 - ID#28593)
To: Another

To: Another

A point of clarification: Innocence was used, and was MEANT to be used, in the standard dictionary usage, freedom from sin or moral wrong, from L. Innocens, incapable of doing harm, hence guiltless.

It is what makes your posts paradoxical ( to me, at any rate ) .

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:30 - ID#246224)
Gub'ment Buying of Stock Indices = Can't hold this door open much longer.
Typical ham fisted attempt to "save" the market in Japan. They have figured out how to print money; buy share indices on margin. This will only encourage fraud, as it is simply fraud by the government. Only forestalled the melt-down. Did not avert it. Big boys selling to the government to get out. Curtain only open for so long then WHAMMMMM!!!!

Per an earlier post my feel is that the more open they are about manipulating these markets is only a sign of just how desperate the situation really is. And we are talking VERY BAD, troops. When governments broadcast their perverse activities then you know the end is near. And it will always be "remain calm, there is no crisis" until the gunwhales are firmly below the waves never to rise again.



Avoid the rush. Considering that the price of bullion is low, that there is relatively little available, both of gold, silver and cash, and that you simply can not tell which banks HERE ( fill in you designated country ) are going to go under, then why be exposed to this incredible fraud. Headlights are on the road bearing down on ya' dudes and dudesses. Time to saunter off of this highway before its tooooo late.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:34 - ID#57232)
Selby: If you have a good idea, email it to Bart Kitner so that it's not out for the whole word to know. There must be a good way of doing this. We need someone like HAL 9000. Anyone who works with a "secure" system?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:36 - ID#335190)
USofA Ambassador @ Montreal Canadien Fan, That is the only plus +
November 19, 1997
U.S. ambassador skirts around contentious issues

TORONTO ( CP ) - The senior American diplomat in Canada dodged around contentious bilateral trade issues today as leaders from both countries gathered in Vancouver for the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit.

Instead, U.S. ambassador Gordon Giffin praised the strong trading partnership between the two countries during a breakfast address to prominent Toronto business leaders.

He slammed reports that painted a troubled relationship between the two countries, insisting: "I don't think the relationship is eroding at all."

As for conflicts like the British Columbia salmon dispute, Giffin predicts issues like it "will be dealt with in the forseeable future."

At the Vancouver summit, Canadian officials will be trying to negotiate an ambitious package of free-trade initiatives. Officials believe they are close to deals that would eliminate tariffs and other import barriers on forest products and fish by early the next decade.

Giffin, who spent most of the first 17 years of his life living in Canada, first in Pointe-Claire, Que., outside Montreal and then in the Toronto suburb of Etobicoke.

He spent about half of his 30 minute speech praising Canada and professing his love for the Montreal Canadiens.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:46 - ID#263259)
@ (nowhere)...I think that its really interesting that The comments made early Saturday morning about the
discrepancies in COMEX metals warehouse stocks never made even a ripple in 99.9% of the news publications.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:46 - ID#408147)
cheaper gold soon
...looks like gold really wants to get below $300 before Thanksgiving ( U.S. ) . I'm keeping enough cash ready to jump in at around $290 ( I don't want to try and pick the exact bottom since I am unable to day trade effectively...

In the meantime -- U.S. equities should continue a small rally toward 8000...

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:48 - ID#267276)
new system
Just want to say thanks for new system

(Wed Nov 19 1997 14:55 - ID#287207)
JTF: You might be right but I have good ideas so rarely I usually miss them.
Anyway --to be explicit-- wanting to get this site back to a semblance of what it was/could be before gold finally starts back up should have been implicit in my post. To make a solution into a problem is an example of why this site has lost the major thinkers that gave it the good reputation it had and the growing collection of loudmouths and squabbling is why it is becoming a joke around similar sites on the net. Anyway not my business -- not my problem.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 15:02 - ID#427357)
Rothschilds, Soros & RJ CANNOT BE WRONG
We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the Poor Mans Gold -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year Goldbugs Weekly Comment.

In Cormiers report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! -posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Lets capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%
Silver Standard ( SSO ) ...............UP 57%
International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%
First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) ..........UP 86%
United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%
Clifton Mining ( CFB ) ................Down 4%

Thats an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! - the curent daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:

(Wed Nov 19 1997 15:02 - ID#33180)
Gold is not out of the woods yet. Keep powder dry. Market doesn't like NEM's reduction of dividend from 12 cents to 3 cents, pulling gold stocks down again today.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 15:05 - ID#427357)
WEDNESDAY IN TOKYO: NIKKEI suffers worst fall in 1997 - DOWN 884 points, equivalent to a drop of 5.3% to 15842. This obliterates half of the BOJ-RALLY over the previous two days. It bears repeating that ONLY the BOJ has the motive and financial clout to so dramatically reverse the Nikkeis KAMIKAZE dive!

Another startling announcement make in TOKYO this week, which may have important ramifications for the US Dollar, T-bonds, and Wall Street:

Yen demand to grow in Asia as dollar link ends - BOJ

TOKYO, Nov 17 ( Reuters ) - Demand for the yen in the Asian region will naturally increase now that many Asian countries have stopped linking the value of their currencies to the U.S. dollar, Bank
of Japan ( BOJ ) executive director Takashi Anzai said on Monday

It would be only natural for currency transactions of the yen against local Asian currencies to increase after their departure from the dollar peg system, Anzai told an international symposium on European economic and monetary union and the yen.

He added: This applies to both the private and the public sector.

Germany, Nov 19 - The Bundesbank announces it will start using the Yen as part of its reserves to reduce its US Dollar risk.

ORACLE QUESTION ON Behalf of Far-East Public & Private Sectors: So why do we need to continue to hold US Treasuries - DENOMINATED IN US DOLLARS?!

Whereas the BOJ can ONLY momentarily deter the slide in Nikkei - as we have just seen, it will not resolve the underlying problems plaguing Japan and the rest of Asia. It is a ruse to confuse.

To appreciate the grim financial and economic conditions - becoming worse daily - one must examine the problems. This weekend an outstanding article was posted at GOLD-EAGLE, which describes in minute detail what is happening in Asia.

Spud Master
(Wed Nov 19 1997 15:06 - ID#273112)
is this you Chris?
* Christopher / Go | Computer Science & Mathematics *
* Michael /~ Blue | Residential Network Consultant *
* Mason /~ Devils! | *
* ****** | Bowling Green State University *

(Wed Nov 19 1997 15:09 - ID#213265)
comex drawdown
223 -- You'll see it in price before you see it in the news. Price first, news sometime later.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 15:16 - ID#263259)
Interesting news from WGC today:

(Wed Nov 19 1997 15:16 - ID#242251)
Silent Chris

(Wed Nov 19 1997 15:25 - ID#22956)
OJ/JO did have MASS profitaking. OUCH!! Timing is EVERYthing!! :~ ) ) savage-one - I took most of my 'plays' off last two days. I still have some ( now they are free...$$$ ) at the current prices. I can't believe how much of the bottom dropped out. I know someone who went to the short side ( I was tempted yesterday but didn't ) and is howling at the moon now. WOW!! What a MOVE!! Now option prices are WAY overpriced ( as if they weren't before ) . The March and Mays will get some great play this winter...oh my...

btw, ALL - My ( yet to be famous ) :JO/GOLD Similarity Chart is holding up well...I guess you know what this means for the mighty-mellow-Yellow.........ugh.............oh no!..............ugh...........

and Savage - chaeck it out for yourself. Optionvue is a Great program for the price. If you hurry you can get a good price break. Here is the sight download a demo the MARK



Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Wed Nov 19 1997 15:41 - ID#260223)
Can someone please describe how SI allows posting messages to their groups?

Richard Burke
(Wed Nov 19 1997 15:44 - ID#411318)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 15:49 - ID#57232)
Selby: I looked at your post, and then at mine. I apologize if I sounded negative -- I just want us to find a secure system before things start hopping -- I would guess two months or less. Please do not feel put off -- any ideas would be helpful for Bart.

silver plate
(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:01 - ID#288433)
Report of WGC
223: all that report means that lower gold prices increases demand.
if gold drops to 250 the demand will increase 20%.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:03 - ID#57232)
SDRer: Did we have another post from ANOTHER today? I think your concern is accurate. English is probably not ANOTHER's primary language. There are cultural and conceptual differences as well. This is why we learn from ANOTHER, but there is much that is unclear.

His/her posts are engaging simply because they are so different from what we are accustomed. I am fascinated even when I don't learn anything.

It is unfortunate that we do not have responses from other Kitcoites that have the same cultural background.

Richard Burke
(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:03 - ID#411318)
JTF, Selby, Steve: I caught your earlier postings about Larouche. I read some of his material from the "Executive Intelligence Review" back in the early to mi eighties. His intelligence was always interesting, but some of his conclusions were a little "wild" and his editorialists would go off on wild diatribes. Ichecked with a friend of mine who was in the military intelligence branch of a major world country ( not the USA. He told me that his group subscribed to the review because Larouche had some of the best intelligence sources in the world. My friend's group, however, drew their own conclusions. You are right about his dislike for the Royal Family of England who he ties to some chivalrous order which he claims is up to all kinds of bad works. As I recall, he also ties the old oligarchical families of Europe with control of the drug trade and the attempted assassinated of the Pope in the early eighties. Specifically he cites the Turn Und Taxis family of Bavaria as being involved in the latter.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:08 - ID#243250)
tesr system

(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:09 - ID#57232)
Richard Burke: Your post is interesting, to say the least. Why does L Larouche have such a good intelligence gathering network?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:18 - ID#267276)
I just read Larouche's EIR weekly radio address, very interesting! at

(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:22 - ID#22956)
LGB STOCK MARKET ALERT
New York ( UPI ) November 19, 1997 - All of financial Markets of the world were stunned last night by the news of stock market pundit LGB saying there would be a crash tomorrow. He was quoted last night on the world famous kitco chat-room saying...oh is the whole enchilada:

Date: Tue Nov 18 1997 22:42
LGB ( DOW be a droppin tomorrow! ) ID#310407:
Just so no one thinks I'm some kinda perpetual DOW cheerleader! It's gonna DIVE
tomorrow.... and I hope it does. I'm still looking for a 6700 level so I can buy back

Reactions around the world were mixed. Bill G. said ( last night ) : "oh lordy, I'm not going to get a minute of sleep tonight". Warren Buffett did not return our phone calls but a junior butt-wiper was overheard in the 'men's room' saying, "Oh god! What should we do? Big W. wants to sell it all, he and that LGB are tight"! Saddam was said to be so sick from the news he could not even get out of bed.

Recent actions in Iraq were put on hold while the President of the Unites States, Bill Clinton flew back from a secret vacation with Jennifer Flowers and wife Hillary to meet with Allan Greenspan. The subject was, as usual, centered around LGB, the financial ( and humungously wealthy ) genius. "We must put a stop to this irrationaly exhuberant guru"! said Mr. Geenspan. "Let' call Underdog, to save the day"! said Bill. "this is a good plan" said Greenspan.

So they did and together LGB and Underdog singlehandedly ( or four for the dog and two for LGB ) bought ( not brought, buy bought ) the market from certain collapse to finish the day at a 70+pt gain.

A ticker tape parade is scheduled for tomorrow in NYC on fifth avenue for the unlikely-duo. Instead of paper it is said that LGB wants compensation for a job well done and has asked if the mobs can throw ten's and twenties out of the windows. LGB was overheard saying 'I saved the Morons and they should pay' and it is also reported that he will be producing a newsletter to all the 'luditte naysayers' to shed light on their poor lowly, filthy, humbled lives. poke fun ;- )

hmmmmm...i wonder what the accuracy % is now?...

(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:27 - ID#335190)
Korea @ IMF Bailout
November 19, 1997

South Korea reveals financial bailout plan

SEOUL, South Korea ( AP ) - Struggling to stop its once-mighty economy

from sliding into chaos, South Korea fired its economy minister Wednesday

and said it will ease currency controls, borrow dollars abroad and clean up

debt-ridden banks.

Whether the emergency measures will regain the confidence of foreign

investors could determine whether South Korea becomes the next Asian

victim of financial freefalls - with far larger ramifications.

Initial reactions from analysts were less than enthusiastic. They said the

measures were not drastic enough and came too late, and that the country

will need a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

South Korea's meteoric ascent out of the poverty and economic chaos of

the Korean War era gave rise to the world's 11th-largest economy.

"There is a possibility that the government will ask for IMF loans."

Foreign investors have been bailing out of the South Korean stock market

and converting their holdings to U.S. dollars. But local investors pushed the

benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index up slightly at the close

Wednesday on expectations the new measures would invigorate the


(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:27 - ID#280222)
OJ(not so GOLDen liquid)
EBber: ouch indeed!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:31 - ID#188244)
Does anybody have any news about Clinton getting contributors access to National Cemetaries, including Arlington National?

Perhaps some of the overseas Kitcoites could fill us in- I'm sure we won't see or hear anything here.

I don't know if it is true or not, nor do I have any details.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:36 - ID#22956)
For not being his primary language ANOTHER has quite a command English. I am beginning to think that the Hep was correct in thinking he was YOU! What is up?? How, with all your intelligence and grasp of English ( it is you're primary language, right? ) can you say this nonsense? He speaks it WELL. C'mon dude!! He even used the dude word if I recall...

C'mon JTF...fess up! be suspicious


(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:40 - ID#335190)
Japan & Big Bang Banking @ APEC
November 19, 1997
Tokyo to trumpet its 'big bang' reforms at APEC

TOKYO ( AP ) - Mutual funds. Disability insurance. Banks with automatic teller machines that stay open around the clock. These may be everyday options for Americans and Europeans, but they are just getting off the ground in Japan as part of the government's "big bang" economic reforms. And they are likely to help U.S. firms break into a notoriously difficult market.

"Americans have the know-how and they can grow into a very big presence," said Ju-ichi Yamanaka, an economist at NLI Research Institute, a Tokyo-based think-tank affiliated with a Japanese insurer.

Citibank, for instance, has attracted Japanese account-holders simply by
offering 24-hour banking service.

Compared to American banks, the Japanese are in the Dark Ages in investment basics, such as getting returns on pension funds. Although Japanese individual savings total $9.6 trillion US, most of that money is sitting in banks, earning minuscule interest rates of 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent. No wonder the Japanese often compare bank savings to keeping bills stashed in a "tansu," or chest of drawers.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:49 - ID#31868)
The press has taken an agreesive stance against the Japanese as has the United States Government. Personally I think the USG is barking up the wrong tree here.

The US and the investor in the US are in for a very sad awakening. I think the end of the month is going to be very interesting.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:51 - ID#335190)
Japan Bank closure @ Effects USofA & Canada ( $7.48 & $6.21 Billion US, bad debts)
November 18, 1997
Financially troubled Japanese bank forced to close

TOKYO ( AP-CP ) - Bad loans forced one of Japan's biggest banks to close Monday, but the government's willingness to put up money to protect depositors raised hopes for a broader bailout of troubled Japanese banks.

A smaller regional bank will take most of Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Ltd.'s domestic branches, and Japan's central bank said it would make interest-free loans to the bank to cover withdrawals.

The bank owns nine per cent of Canadian Western Bank, making it the third-largest shareholder in the Edmonton-based institution. The company's stake is worth about $15 million at current share prices of about $20.

Hokkaido Takushoku is the largest bank on Japan's northern main island of Hokkaido. It will transfer most of its 196 domestic branches - including
132 branches on Hokkaido - to North Pacific Bank Ltd., a medium-size Japanese bank also based on Hokkaido.

At the end of March, Hokkaido Takushoku held $7.48 billion US in non-performing loans, a bank official said. Earlier this month, Sanyo Securities Co., a medium-size Japanese brokerage, went bankrupt after accumulating a total of $6.21 billion US in bad debts.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 16:55 - ID#26396)
is this anyone's handle?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 17:05 - ID#335190)
Japan @ Economy focus
November 18, 1997
Japan's plan to bolster economy focuses on deregulation

TOKYO ( AP ) - Ignoring appeals from business leaders for tax cuts or increased spending, the Japanese government unveiled an economic revival plan Tuesday centring on slashing business regulations.

He predicted the new package would add an average of $48 billion US to the economy every year and $480 billion US overall. The effects of some measures would take as long as 20 years to be fully felt, he said.

Hashimoto has shied away from tax cuts or government spending increases in line with his pledge to cut government debt. Some economists worry, though, that while Hashimoto focuses on cleaning up government finances, Japan may slide into recession.

The latest figures available show the Japanese economy contracted at an annual rate of 11.2 per cent in the April-June quarter as consumers cut spending after a tax increase in April.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 17:13 - ID#269409)
EB re your 16:22, market calls, what about Pegasus?
Hey EB, you KNOW I was just joking on that DOW call don't you? Now what about my "buy" recomendation for PGU last night? You coulda made 20% in ONE DAY if you bought the open this morning and sold the peak!!!

OK, now that we're passworded and all, I'll come clean and admit I did think the DOW would drop today in response to Asian Euphoria disappearing and Nikkei/Korea problems. Obviously even I have underestimated the strength of the DOW eh???

Silver continue it's excellent move today, and as you know that's what I've been pushing hardest and buying fastets lately. Hope RJ is wrong about a "mystery" pile being held someplace. We'll see. Even a few million ounces coming out of the woodwork shouldn't effect the fundamentals I wouldn't think, but I defer to RJ's wisdom on this one and will proceed with caution.....

(Wed Nov 19 1997 17:14 - ID#269409)
Use of Handle, all, Bart
Once we establish a handle does it prevent posers from using our handle? ( I hope )

(Wed Nov 19 1997 17:18 - ID#26396)
Selby, I think you better reconsider what you said
since nobody's password is not as secure as you think, and it
it may be only a matter of time before you log on to Kitco
and find someone posting under your handle. Perhaps
at that time you will want to add a fourth thing to your
list of what Kitco needs.

I am perfectly willing to post under one handle ( or
no handles and just lurk ) once we have a registration
system in place where it is absolutely assured that the playing
field is level. As it stands right now, mendacity
is rampant on both K1 and K2, and even when certain
individuals are confronted point-blank with overwhelming evidence
that they are posting under multiple handles, they
deny it and continue to engage in this activity.
Why are some people allowed to do this and others not?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 17:22 - ID#269409)
@ Puetz, S&P December Put options vs. Physical metals
Puetze my lunar friend. I think the activity in the DOW the past few days, underscores the complete absurdity of anyone trying to make money on the markets buying "Put" options in anticipation of a pre Oct/Nov/Dec crash.

I think any derivitave plays by any but the wealthiest of investors is gambling speculation of the most dangerous kind. ANd speculation of a market crash in the face of our incredible economic strength and fundmanetals is sheer folly. The folks who bought December S&P puts have to be pretty unhappy about now...

In area of agreement however, like you I think the turning point for metals is coming, or has been reached ( with no DOW crash in sight though ) , and any physical Gold/SIlver/platinum purchases right now are a very safe, long term, profitable play with little or no downside.

WE disagree on the type of physical though, I gave my reasons a couple days ago why Gold St, Gaudens ( or Liberty's ) $20 pieces are more important to hold than bullion Gold, even for the non Numismatist.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 17:27 - ID#253253)
DA - Comments

DA - you mentioned several days ago that you may be soon going long gold in a much bigger way than a few months ago. As I value your comments as among the very best, can you please keep us updated on your plans for the near future as you have in the past?

Thanks for your continued excellent posts as I learn a lot from you.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 17:32 - ID#201131)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 17:38 - ID#201131)
Pegasus goes broke
In reviewing Pegasus's annual report I noticed they had sold forward 700000 ounces of gold for the years 1997 thru 2003. Does anyone know if they borrowed any gold from a central bank as part of this transaction? If they did then there must be a central banker somewhere wondering how he can tell his boss that he isnt going to get back the gold he lent to Pegasus. This should start the process of unwinding short sales of gold by producers because no one will trust marginal producers with a gold loan. If Pegasus was able to hedge without a gold loan out to the year 2003 then who is borrowing all of this gold? This is my first post after being a long time lurker. DA thanks for all of your intelligent post over the last year.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 17:40 - ID#269409)
Beeman, (Hepper) @ multiple handles
The reason some folks are allowed cart blanche' on posting rights, statements of a vitriolically pejorative personal nature directed at specific individuals with no reproof from other participants, etc etc. is that it depends on the nature of the posters views on Gold and the markets.

If you happen to despise our current system of democracy, economic policy, monetary growth ( and it's corresponding economic and social benefits ) , and you believe that Gold is somehow "Moral", then you can use multiple handles and pejoritive insulting language toward others all you want.

If you have opinions contrary to this PC view, and even if you are a precious metals investor, and ESPECIALLY if you consistently outperform the "professional analysts" in your market calls ( as you yourself have ) , than any statements you make that could have the slightest chance of being offensive, will immediately be reported to the webmaster, decried in a loud chorus of offended retorts, etc.

In other words, terms like Lemming, idiot, puppet, Dipster, ( and a host of much more offensive terms including obscenities and threats ) are quite acceptable if applied to non Goldbug individuals who have been successful investors for the past 2 decades.

However, similar terms ( like Moron ) used toward DieHard, U.S. country hating, paranoid, conspiracy theorist Goldbugs, who have been losing dough for 2 decades waiting for the DOW crash and Gold Bull, are a BIG no no. A major faux paux that will be diligently guarded against by said Goldbug site Nazi's.

Surely you know this by now my feline friend!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 17:42 - ID#253253)
LGB - Comments
LGB - thanks for your recent comments about St Gaudins investment. I agree with your reasoning as to why they're probably one of the best investments if one is going to buy gold coins.

Can you recommend a reputable outfit who is currently selling them at good prices?

Do you think it's safe to purchase them through the mail via a certified check or money order?

Appreciate your comments and posts.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 17:47 - ID#402182)
Canadian $$$$
Thanks Bart


The Canadian government seems to want to prepare everyone for higher interest rates.

We have high unemployment, low inflation.

Maybee they can see another run on the Loonie coming. They have been spending big $ to support the Loonie.

Now the question is how much higher.
I can still remember 20% interest rates.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 17:54 - ID#318321)
National Cemetaries
I know this isn't gold related but someone asked the question. I heard it first last night on the Michael Reagan show that the new issue of Insight Magazine has a story that Clinton and the DNC are basically selling plots at Arlington and other National Cemetaries in exchange for political contributions. Heard the same story today on the Chuck Harder show. As an ex-military officer this really is getting under my skin. He has gone to far this time.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 17:58 - ID#269409)
JL, sources for gold coins
Yes JL, there are several good sources. I'm not sure I should put the names up however, I think that's a violation of the rules. If you post your e mail address I'll forward a couple names to you.

As to purchases via mail order being safe, yes they are quite safe because all the dealers use registered insured mail to send them. You have to sign for them when they arrive, and if for some reason they didn't arrive the dealer would re-ship and take the matter up with the post office who insures them. So far I've never heard of anyone being a victim of a theft, since the U.S.P.S. makes employee's sign for regostered shipments at every step in the process, but in any case, you wouldn't be out the dough even if a mishap ocurred, as long as you deal with a reputable firm of which there are many.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:03 - ID#57232)
EB: If you think I am ANOTHER, you need to read his/her posts, as well as SDRer, and CMax. You will see that none of our writing styles are comparable. One reason I chose Physics was that I was the worst student in my Latin class at High School, as well as not doing well in English. Relativity and mathematics were easy for me. Why don't you focus on someone who lurks and wishes to be a Novelist, or takes many disguises? We have many of these at Kitco. That I suspect is the only alternative I think to ANOTHER not being the genuine article ( whatever that means ) .

I am honored that you think that I, who consistently does poorly at foreign languages could pull off the stunt that you describe.

If ANOTHER is not who he/she claims to be, then that person must be a master story teller.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:09 - ID#269409)
Bought GOLD today, price was UP
In putting my money where my mouth is, I bought some St. Gaudens pieces today. Interestingly, on a day when Gold went back to the doldrums, the price on St. Gaudens has once again risen by $10 an ounce so that they are now trading about $20 above where they were a few weeks ago when Gold was HIGHER!! This is why I recommend them. Higher floor, greater demand, especially in U.S. market, better potential for gains and leveraged gains when Gold does rise, and much much lower confiscation risk. ( Though I don't believe there is much risk of confiscation anyway, now that U.S. Treasury has been minting modern American Eagle Gold coins for 10 years now. Whatare they gonna say? "Sorry, we're taking our legal tender Gold back?" It's never fly and they know it )

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:25 - ID#269409)
Violation of Kitco Guidelines and federal law
I consider a certain participants 15:06 post to be a gross violation of Kitco etiquette and rules, not to mention federal law.

Trying to violate someone's constitutional rights to privacy, firstly, on a forum obviously designed to protect privacy and anonymity, and secondly if he's wrong about who "Chris" is then he's exposing some other non Kitco participant to unsolicited e mail, including of a pejorative nature, and violation of privacy.

Hopefully, now that we have registration, this kind of "outing" nonsense can be halted. I thought it was grossly offensive when it was done to HepCat in August, regardless of what Kitco participants thought of him, and it's grossly offensive now.

Isn't it ironic that those who shout loudest about offensive speech, conspiracies,nefarious plots, personal rights, etc etc. are the first to stoop to this kind of GENUINELY malicious rights violation.

As you know I've never written to privately complain to you about any post here. I don't believe in such childish whining as I believe self policing works fine among adults. Nevertheless, this is an especially egregious violation in my opinion, which should be stated as such publicly, and should be halted immediately now that we have the means to do so.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:32 - ID#253253)
LGB - Thanks for your reply. I do plan to purchase some right away. Although gold may go lower. it's hard to pass it up at these low, inflation adjusted prices. I would appreciate your opinion on whom to deal with. I've provided my e-mail address.

Thanks again.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:35 - ID#30116)
Testing 1, 2, 3
Just 'testing'...............


(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:37 - ID#31868)
The REAL story?
The real proof is in the numbers. Go to and click on the Daily Quotes & Market Report.

I think it is summed up nicely there for all the world to see. The price of gold has been held down. Plain and simple.

Spud Master
(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:39 - ID#273112)
Keep your pants on, LGB
I simply asked Chris if that was him. Anything wrong with that? Nope. And who is urging the sending of pejorative email? Not me.

Personally, methinks you doth protest too much.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:47 - ID#269409)
Spud Master
After you asked for him to be "Nuked with extreme prejeduice" I think it's QUITE clear what your motives are, "Methinks I don't protest enough"

Being disingenous just reduces the credibility of any and all statements you make. You're actions speak clearly as to motive and intent.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:48 - ID#31868)
Everyday I hear about people that are being let go. In the present and in the near future thousands and thousands of our companions in America are not going to have a job.

Clearly these massaged employment numbers coming from our economically sound and strong government are going to have to come up with some answers.

If nothing else seems clear, the information we hear in the general media and coming from the mouthes of the likes of Clinton, Gore, Rubin and Greenspan one would think it is business as usual. For them it is.

For Americans, it certainly is not.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:50 - ID#246224)
Let's get physical ..
gold and silver bullion, that is! Recognize that when it becomes a popular part of a yuppie's portfolio to have at least 5% in gold and silver bullion then the competition for the available product will suck the distribution channel dry as a bone. Avoid the rush!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:50 - ID#269409)
@ JL, Gold coins
JL, I'll forwrad the info top you later tonight when I have it in front of me ( on the home front ) Now, I wonder if I can be LGB on that machine too? Hmmmmmmm

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:54 - ID#31868)
More Banking
Bank of England directors reportedly to step down

Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 Agence France-Presse

LONDON ( November 18, 1997 11:29 p.m. EST ) - At least six directors of the Bank of England are expected to step down next year as part of reforms by the new Labour government to address a perceived conservative, pro-markets bias, it was reported Wednesday.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:55 - ID#269409)
Tolerant, Layoff's vs, New jobs
Tol, we hear about all the layoff's from large corporation ssuch as Kodak etc. because it makes for good copy. ( It's interesting when people die, give us dirty laundry.dudududut )

Two problesm with the theory, first, many of these "layoff's" are being accomplished through attrition and early retirement with Silver parachutes, secondly, new jobs are being created at a much faster pace than old ones are being eliminated.

I travel countrywide in my career position, and con't remeber a time when I've seen so many quality job openings. COntrary to what some have said here, these are not Buger flipping jobs or temp positions. I'm afraid our extremely low unaemployment numbers being reported, are indeed accurate, and may lead to inflationary pressures, NOT depression style job loss.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:56 - ID#201238)
comex warehouse stocks

Comex warehouse gold stocks FELL 3,998 oz to 501,696 oz.

Comex warehouse silver stocks rose 675,474 oz to 126,645,887 oz today. BUT

look inside the numbers - eligible gold stocks fell 6,288 oz to 247,310 oz AND ELIGIBLE SILVER STOCKS PLUNGED 4,582,243 OZ to 71, 691,556 oz.

Lets see, tomorrow we should hear that the Swiss will sell 1400 tons of gold, right? Then gold will fall thru 300 on the news. Then silver will rise because of the short squeeze on comex and NO ONE WILL MENTION the fact that 99 percent of the comex gold contracts are not covered - this is what has been happening at the end of every other week for the last month, I thought I should just help them write their story now!!!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:58 - ID#39121)

(Wed Nov 19 1997 18:58 - ID#31868)
the numbers
I read thousands of pages a week and one thing is certain. Nobody agrees on the numbers. Clearly time will in fact tell us all.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:00 - ID#35767)
Comex Warehouse Stocks and the silver issue
Does anyone know today's number on Comex Stocks. What should we think of the recent draw downs? The silver deficit has gone on for years and CPM group states we will be out of industrial silver very soon. Some say the silver is hidden away therefore a corner is taking place. OF NOTE one would only try to corner a market in shortage so this begs the question. With much silver coming as a by product of gold and copper the Gold shutdowns and the low copper can only be bullish and a great story for A HUNT ( read Soros.. I read He is purchasing Silver properties for a Salomon offering ) type speculator. No CB "supposed" ( I think it is a ruse as the derivitive gold mkt clearly overwhelms the physical market yet there is no question the powers that be want gold down just based on the timeliness of their comments ) OVERHANG thus, the only defense against silver appears to be to kill gold. Looks like that is wearing a bit thin. Who cares if somebody is cornering the silver market as they are probably smart insiders who are in the know and who can get all they want because of the current "Gold" Factor. I would have loved to have been long when the Hunts started their corner. However, I think the real reason for the corner, if there is one, is that The Big Boys who are doing it have enough information to KNOW it will work. Comments.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:04 - ID#335190)
USofA Banks @ Defrauded By $15 Million & 42 counts of Conspiracy
November 19, 1997
Five charged in $15 million bank fraud

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Federal prosecutors said Wednesday that five people were charged with defrauding banks, financial institutions and commercial lenders of more than $15 million by using false statements on loan applications.

The indictment charges that the defendants received $6 million from Marine Midland Bank and $3 million from the Mashreq Bank, both in Manhattan and $2.4 million from the Allstate Financial Corp. in Arlington, Va.

Other Manhattan banks that were defrauded were the Bank of New York, First Bank of the Americas, Banco Popular de Puerto Rico and the Chase Manhattan Bank.

The indictment also charged that the five applied for another $3 million loan from Mashreq and used a false $3 million surety bond from the Hartford Lloyd's Insurance Co. as proposed collateral.

Charged with 42 counts of conspiracy to commit bank fraud; mail and wire fraud and making false statements in loan applications are: Mohnish Mohan, president of Phoenix Investments International, a purported international trading company in Manhattan; Montie Paul, the company's corporate secretary and vice president; Giro Katsimbrakis, the general manager and vice president; Gary Confredo, a financial consultant and Joann Mercieca, a Phoenix bookkeeper.

If convicted of all counts, each faces a possible maximum sentence of more than 100 years in prison and $20 million in fines. The indictment alleged that the defendants applied for loans by falsely stating that Phoenix was conducting valid business and had substantial accounts receivable.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:05 - ID#39845)
Umm, test.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:06 - ID#280222)
re: your 15:06
SPUD-MAN : How do you do that?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:06 - ID#246224)
It may be difficult to imagine ..
that many people in India, China and Hong Kong may be better off in terms of cash and precious metals savings than people in the USA. In "less developed countries" people often save by accumulating US$ and precious metals. They hide these in little boxes in a hole in their dirt floor. How many people in the USA have even a $100 bill to their name let alone 1 ounce of gold or silver bullion in a place that is completely free from vagerities of a bank's open/closed door? We, here, have been very long in complacency about the stability of our financial institutions, accounts and investments. One assumes that at the drop of a hat one could go to the bank and withdraw one's assets. Make a phone call and see a check in the mail or an interbank wire transfer. The last time we had a bit of a scare was in 1990 with the S&L problem, which was quickly papered over. I am not advocating a complete withdrawl. What is suggested is a prudent review of what we consider a 'safe' place. And to have at least some capital where it won't be even marginally threatened by a bank insolvancy or closure.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:07 - ID#426220)
Leading US Economist sharply criticizes Greenspans policy regarding gold.

In an absolutely perfect world, no central bank would need to
hold any gold. David Ricardo, the great supply-side, classical
economist of the 19th century, wrote in his Principles of Political Economy in London of 1821, that When money is working at the peak of efficiency, the central bank need hold no gold.

Very few opponents of "a gold standard" know what it is or how it works or how many different ways there are to link paper money to gold.

If the Eurocrats understood that, they would go back to the
drawing boards and build a monetary system from that assumption. This would require them to first fix the Eurocurrency to something the markets would understand as being a reliable unit of account. What? The answer is the dollar, the world's key currency, except that the dollar still wobbles around relative to the gold price. The Euro would be possible, but only if the dollar is first fixed in value to gold. Then, the European nations in the Eurocurrency system would have a credible unit of account as their anchor.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:08 - ID#222186)
COMEX Warehouse Stocks
ROR: Gold: -3,998 oz, total 501,696 oz
Silver: +675,474 oz, total 126,645,887 oz.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:09 - ID#31868)
The fact is that there have been many reports on silver supply getting very tight. Don't be fooled by the cornering stuff you hear. There are very tight supplies.

If someone wanted to start gobbling up silver they could do it with roughly $1billion if such a corner on the market took place.

try this

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:12 - ID#246224)
Indeed the markets tell the story. A sordid tale of deceit and greed swathed in dark meetings of conspiracy. Go long: silver AND gold. They know what they are doing as we do. Every silver cloud has a golden lining ( I think ) .

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:18 - ID#31868)
Owning some of the silver stocks are just as good as going long on the white metal. Maybe better.

As Vronsky has posted The Gold Bug at gives excellent advice on the metals. I get the newsletter from Gold Bug and I find it to be fair, honest and in great detail.

You can find Gold Bug on the gold-eagle digest page.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:20 - ID#35767)
Silver @Arden
What is the significance of "elgible" stocks of silver versus other types of stocks. Is there only a short term implication ie near term deliveries or is there a longer term greater significance?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:23 - ID#223146)
Tolerant1,ROR & All-The continued draw down of gold stocks at the comex are contrary to pssible expectations of those "powers that be", who may be trying to drive the gold price down. The Comex is the most visible market where one can see changes in physical stocks. Based on all the analysis that has surfaced regarding the selling of gold stocks from CBs--- Where is it? I believe that the sales have been derivitive in nature and unless we start seeing a rise in deliverable gold at the Comex the nature and reality of gold may precipitate the derivative players worst nightmare. If Another is correct in that the CBs never release their gold but only the right the write paper based on it's value then we may have the mother of all short squeezes if the longs hold the December contracts past notice day. Comments please.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:24 - ID#335190)
1930's Unemployment was 25 % @ 1997 Whats Up @ Go Figure eh!
November 19, 1997
Layoffs, restructuring still loom as economy booms

TORONTO ( CP ) - The Canadian economy continues to bound ahead, buoyed by low inflation and interest rates. But there are troubling signals coming from corporate boardrooms across the land.

Recent news of restructuring and layoffs at some of the country's largest
employers have raised questions about where the economy is headed. A spate of job cuts, analysts say, could also hurt the domestic economy by undermining consumer confidence, the fuel that has helped ignite Canada's
economic engine for much of the last year. Earlier this week, two of Canada's largest resource companies, Inco Ltd. and Noranda Inc., announced sweeping plans to make their operations leaner.

"Major layoffs and restructuring are really ratchetting up ( in the United States ) as well," said Andrew Jackson, economist at the Canadian Labor Congress in Ottawa. He pointed to Eastman Kodak's decision last week to chop 10,000 jobs around the world. Since late summer, about 35,000 U.S. jobs have been cut.

While the natural resource sectors - particularly forestry - seem to be facing the biggest shakeups, there have been equally disturbing reports from other industries. -Bell Canada, the country's largest telephone company, had planned to cut 10,000 jobs between 1994 and 1997, then added to the bloodletting last July by cutting 2,200 more. Rumors of more layoffs made headlines in late September.

-General Motors is reported to be cutting 42,000 jobs worldwide in the next five years through attrition and the selling and closing of plants. Those cuts could hit GM's Canadian unit based in Oshawa, Ont. -Cami Automotive in Ingersoll, Ont., a joint venture between GM and Suzuki, said it would lay off 800 of its 1,900 employees next year because of poor markets for its vehicles.

"How can we be having so many layoffs when the economy is in such good shape?" Jackson said.

November 19, 1997
Raytheon may close 12 plants
LEXINGTON, Mass. ( AP ) - The Raytheon Co. may close 12 plants and parts of eight others to keep its promise to cut costs by 10 per cent after acquiring two other defence contractors. Spokesman Robert McWade said Wednesday the company, whose shareholders vote next month on a $9.5 billion US merger with GM Hughes Electronics, revealed its plans in meetings with industry analysts. He declined to specify which plants would be sacrificed.

Raytheon's defence sector has about 35 plants that are heavily concentrated in Massachusetts and Texas, and employs about 81,000 people.
Hughes, based in California, will add another 40,000 workers to the Raytheon payroll.

McWade said the cuts would come from the combined companies, not just the current Raytheon plants. The purchases will make Raytheon the third-largest defence company in the United States, with revenues of more than $20 billion US. Raytheon also has engineering, construction and aircraft businesses.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:25 - ID#201238)
inside the numbers

korondy - Steve Kaplan has a wonderful site and posts the comex numbers for each day in total. Sometimes you must look inside the numbers to see the difference between eligible and registered stocks.

I see it like this. If I parked my car in your garage, you don't own it. If I parked my car in your garage AND gave you my title to it, then you could own it. That is the difference between registered ( in the first case ) and eligible ( in the second case ) .

Today, a lot of short contracts for silver were covered by someone who actually had the metal on deposit indicating to me that they think the price might not be going down!!!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:26 - ID#35767)
6PAK Whats UP re Employment

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:30 - ID#31868)
Many of the top people that study gold feel that the shorts could get caught and the market would explode. This is a dangerous game they have been playing.

Once that cat is out of the bag some serious sparks are going to fly. All the yapping about paper money is just that. Yapping. The mindset around the globe would change over night.

Wait until you see what happens when somebody has to cover the reported 8000 tons of gold.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:35 - ID#335190)
Japan @ Trade
Japan trade surplus keeps surging in October

TOKYO, Nov 20 ( Reuters ) - Japan's politically sensitive trade surplus continued its relentless rise in October, increasing 139.7 percent from a year earlier to 1.108 trillion yen, the Ministry of Finance said on Thursday.

The trade surplus with the United States, which has recently expressed worries over Japan's climbing surplus, grew 55.6 percent in October from a year earlier to 547.2 billion yen, it said.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:36 - ID#35767)
Employment @ 6Pak
The answer to your Ques about layoffs is related to the financial Bull. Corp Execs and Mid level people are paid with stock options and to realize their wealth they need the stock price to rise. As there is little pricing flexibility the only way to keep profits RISING is layoffs. Wall St will kill you unless PROFITS RISE AT A sufficient rate ergo if you can not raise prices and you want to make money on your stock options you fire hard working long time employees and hire new grads or contract out or move ops off shore. Whats even better is these new lower paying or no benefit jobs give the appearance of job growth and a healthy economy which benefits the Pols. The Bankruptcy rate TELLS THE REAL STORY ( as Paul Harvey says ) Ya gotta love the system! No wonder MCI's mgmt ( which can not handle price competition anymore since the govt stopped protecting them from ATT ) came out with the slogan "Is this a great time or what"?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:39 - ID#31868)
Clearly there is fantasy and there is reality concerning not only jobs, but all of the economic numbers.

The difference specifically with employment numbers, each and every one represents a human being. Other numbers relate to activities and such as they impact on people.

I feel sorry for all the people reading the headlines while searching the classifieds for all those great, solid paying jobs.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:40 - ID#335190)
ROR @ 19:26
ALL is in the eye of the beholder. If "you" believe, Who am I to disagree. Only "you" can qualify what is UP ( re: employment ) . Obviously, I believe otherwise. Take care.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:42 - ID#201238)
eligible gold and silver stocks

ROR - lets say you have a lot of bullion sitting on your table that you bought from a very fine metals firm like Kitco. The bullion is of the purity and specifications that meet the contract requirements for Comex delivery.

You can sit on it, worry about security, how to sell it, how to 'trade' against it, or whatever. You can deposit it in a certified Comex depository warehouse and receive a 'warehouse receipt'. That, I belive is called registered. Then, you can write ( sell ) a contract against your bullion at a price and time for future delivery, call a Future. Other people can write contracts against your contract called a 'derivative' if they post enough cash for margin with the firm actually writing the derivative contract. Then I guess there are derivatives against derivatives to make life more complicated. I think we have a mountain of such contracts that can not be fullfilled in actual metal if the game is called, and THAT is the BIG unknown in the market!!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:43 - ID#7568)

We are in the process of making a major commitment to gold. After examining all the investments that are gold related we have decided to head into the microcap stock sector. We are trying to do some private placements with some small producers / explorers that are in need of cash. I have followed this sector for a few years now and have a fair idea of at least a few of the players.

To my way of thinking, investing in these companies is akin to buying long dated out of the money calls. There are some that appear to have the cash flow to at least survive in this environment ( $300 gold ) for at least a few years. Should the gold market sustain any sort of recovery , many of these plays could easily appreciate 5 - 10x. Some of the stocks we are looking at have had positive fundamentals for the past year ( excepting the price of gold ) and are down 60 - 80% from their highs.

Once we have established our positions I will post some names if you are interested. Like all the other investments that we make this will still represent only a few percent of our portfolio. I do not recommend taking out a mortgage and throwing caution to wind in this arena. It is entirely within the realm of possibility that the central banks of the world will choose to become gold mines for the next few years and liquidate a substantial portion of their inventory. Although the probability of such an event is small, such a course would put virtually the entire gold mining sector out of business.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:44 - ID#31868)
Arden; your last post.
Most eloquent. Indeed.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:50 - ID#31868)
The Juniors
There are a great many smaller companies in the mining sector that are solid companies. And they have a lot of cash. Fortunes will be made by people that do their homework.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:52 - ID#29082)
ROR @ 19:00
APEX Silver is the latest Soros venture. It was critiqued at SmartMoney website yesterday. He bought in at 2.90 per share, but the IPO was going to be between 10 and 15 per share U.S. Did anybody hear how the IPO went today?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 19:55 - ID#390214)
Hashimoto says govt must use public funds to bail out banks (selling US bonds) (se
IN a decision that analysts say has enormous significance for

Japan's economy, Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto admitted

yesterday that his government must finally bite the bullet and use

public funds to bail the nation's banking system out of its difficulties.

These measures are expected to be announced on Dec 10 and to

include a provision for a new publicly-funded agency that will buy

preference stocks in Japanese banks to boost their depleted capital.

Mr Mitsuzuka again stressed yesterday the government's determination

not to reverse its fiscal stance. But it now appears certain that the

government will employ funds from Japan's 220 trillion yen ( S$2.8

trillion ) postal savings system as a means both to rescue the banking

system and also to apply some further stimulus to the economy by

what is in effect a backdoor method.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:04 - ID#390214)
Feds worried about Money supply growth & overvalued US market
Some Fed sources said M2 is still too undependable, but another said the behavior of the

aggregates is "one factor in one's thinking about where the economy and inflation are going." Though

difficult to read, strong money growth numbers "certainly go in the same direction" as strong growth

and upside inflation risks. Of credit conditions, he said, "Generous may be too strong a term, but it's

certainly not restrictive in any way, and I think that's one area that bears watching."

"All the money measures are running strong," said another well-placed Fed official, adding, "It's

one of the many things we look at."

An administration official, meanwhile, observed that the "official position" is that the impact of the

Asian crisis will be "modest," but added, "I've got a feeling we could be underestimating the effects."

The official said the Asian crisis is potentially more serious than the Mexican peso crisis, because

"there are quite a lot of weak links in the chain." The official further said the U.S. stock market still

looks "overvalued" so that there is "a lot of potential for a big stock market correction."


(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:04 - ID#188244)
Clinton,Arlington National
Thanks LSteve for the info. I disagree that it is not gold-related. Gold, after all, is the political metal. Clinton is a political animal. Their fates may be ultimately tied together.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:10 - ID#390214)
Feds tolerating higher inflation
Fed chairman and possibly other central bank leaders seem willing to tolerate a somewhat higher

rate of inflation in order to minimize the macroeconomic risks following from lower equity prices,

wider corporate bond yield spreads, and more volatile exchange rates. Too much of an export-led

recovery for Japan does not seem compatible with long-term stability for the world economy. For

the third-quarter of 1997, Japan's current account surplus swelled by 67% year-over-year. In view

of the slowdown now about to strike many of Japan's Asian export customers, Japan will have a

strong incentive to increase sales to the US and Europe. In view of Japan's already existing trade

frictions with these regions, Japan might be more open to accepting internal reforms that would

promote domestic spending in its own economy on goods and services produced both at home and


(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:17 - ID#31868)
Japan's Circus Now Open
Well, now that Japan is deadmeat, what market does everybody think is next. I say the US becomes the next great carnival attraction. This is going to be one sad planet shortly.

What is happening in Japan is clearly not market swings.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:19 - ID#403267)
@*********Bart Kitner*************
Bart, check your email for some info on SI.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:21 - ID#335190)
Japan @ Up at opening
November 19, 1997

Tokyo stocks shoot up in early morning

TOKYO, ( Reuters ) - Tokyo stocks shot up by more than 2 percent in early morning trade Thursday, cheered by media reports that an ex-prime minister asked Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to consider using public funds to help ailing banks.

Tokyo's Nikkei benchmark surged more than 4 percent in early morning trade. The Nikkei 225 average soared by 682.91 points or 4.31 percent to 16,525.37, reversing its steep fall of 884.11 points the previous day.
December Nikkei futures rose 60 points to 15,910.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:25 - ID#206358)
There are so many negative news happened over here now!If the stocks and currency keep sliding on 15% ...the COUNTRY COLLAPES!!Even in this stage,many fund dried up,banks shaking,companys palalysed,projects delayed,govts bonds troubles too....and thE chief of stock market resign today!wHAT ELSE!
MORE......copy from local news.....
a ) finance ministers of Asean countries seriously hit by fx crisis resigned. Since
Anwar does not want to resign, Nik resigned. ( chief of stock of klse )

b ) cannot face the fact that KLSE is the second worst performing bourse in
Asean, and possibly the world.

c ) serious loss of face over the inability to stop the corrupted Renong-UEM

Dr Munir should be next. Since the Security Council has no balls to stop this
restructuring, the whole agency should be dismantled and scrapped, thereby
saving money for the Govt. and improve its budget surplus position.

KLSE is definitely no-go for foreign funds now. It has become a cirus
dominated by clowns.


(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:26 - ID#41186)
LOOKS LIKE EBN have gotten their arrows right
Finally, it looks like EBN has gotten it right ...

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:26 - ID#335190)
Derivatives @ Traders Quit
November 19, 1997
UBS derivatives traders quit over losses

ZURICH, Switzerland, ( Reuters ) - The head of Union Bank of Switzerland's ( UBS ) equity derivatives trading operations in London and three New York traders have quit the bank in the aftermath of losses suffered in the first half of the year, a UBS spokesman said.

He said Remy Goldstein, head of the equity derivatives department left the bank earlier this week and the New York traders followed.

UBS suffered substantially lower trading income in the first nine months of 1997 due to derivatives losses in the second quarter.

The bank did not quantify the losses. But a UBS spokeswoman said market speculation putting the losses at 500 million to 600 million Swiss francs was markedly exaggerated.

In its first-half letter to shareholders UBS said equity derivatives turned in an unsatisfactory performance, suffering among other things from valuation adjustments on trading positions which negatively impacted earnings and from difficult market conditions in Japan.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:29 - ID#222167)
The advance-decline line ( for all issues traded on the NYSE, Amex, and OTC ) fell again today -- for the 8th time during the last 10 trading sessions. Clearly, the strength is in Blue Chip issues. Even the Dow Transports fell today, and the NASDAQ was flat.

Today's issue of the Wall Street Journal reported that Bill Gates was selling shares of his Microsoft stock throughout October -- including some sales on October 27th and October 28th. Also, they reported insiders were not buying shares like the did after the October 1987 crash and during the October 1990 lows.

This is not a strong stock market, and insiders are not buying.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:30 - ID#348129)
@Foreigners (us) are again net sellers of Japanese stocks
Foreigners net sellers of Japan stock via 12 firms

TOKYO, Nov 20 ( Reuters ) - Orders placed by foreign investors through 12 foreign securities houses before the start of stock trading on Thursday showed a net selling stance of 20.5 million shares, market sources said.

Foreign investors placed 36.1 million shares of sell orders against 15.6 million shares of buys.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:33 - ID#335190)
Get Ready @ Nasdaq
November 19, 1997
Nasdaq set to announce jump in trading capacity

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The Nasdaq Stock Market is expected to announce Thursday a big jump in its capacity to handle record trading volume under a new support system from MCI Communications Corp., industry sources said Wednesday.

The announcement is timely as huge surges in volume in recent weeks have raised concerns among regulators about Wall Street's ability to cope with billion-share trading days.

Sources said the new MCI system will give Nasdaq the power to handle many times over the number of shares traded during record sessions, like those following the huge plunge in stock prices on Oct. 27.

When the markets rebounded sharply Oct. 28, for example, volume topped 1.3 billion shares on the National Association of Securities Dealers' automated quotation system. The NASD is the parent company of Nasdaq.

Nasdaq is "getting even greater capacity in the new system," said a source who requested anonymity. Officials at MCI and Nasdaq declined to comment.

"When the wave comes it's not going to look anything like last week. You can never be comfortable that you can be prepared for an event," Grasso told reporters at the same meeting.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:38 - ID#411149)
tolerant1- when that 8000 ton deficit comes to reality and is covered,
or should I say try to cover we will see a MEGA SLINGSHOT WITH THE GOLD PRICE. You got to be in to win. I think DA and some other savy investors
are starting to figure out the posibility of makin a bunch with a little.
I got a friend off shore that says sizeable accounts are buyin physical gold, only yesterday he knew a guy that bought two tons of the stuff.
Years off, I think not! Michael Schafer is lookin for ALL TIME HIGHES IN THE GOLD PRICE IN 1998, with the fireworks starting in the first quarter.
Time to take positions??

Tally Ho

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:41 - ID#348129)
JIN, thanks for the update. Many of us on this side of the Atlantic are watching intently how events unfold in Asia. Even with the falling price
of Gold, many of those in Asia who purchased Gold previously are sitting
pretty right now while the currencies are colapsing around them.....

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:41 - ID#24355)
The Juniors;pull the trigger
D.A. & Tolerant1:

Your posts regarding juniors etc . I generally agree with the thesis, however remain concerned with the bigger picture of au going south,cb's response, euros et al. Currently long on the juniors and one inparticular looks to have some promise. Have you reviewed MNP -V it is a Canadian mining venture . Madison Enterprises Corp has good management and an active Board.They are well financed and have earned 65% of the Mt. Kare property in Papua New Guinea contigous to Placers" pogera property. Initial drill results look good ( maybe 1.7million tons ) next release should be about 80 holes ( dec? ) independent assays with blinds , metalurgy is complex like pogera's. Placer is supposed to be interested because of it's proximity. I have 3or 4 more others that could be discused if there is any interest...any comments? regards

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:44 - ID#335190)
Rubin @ Doing the work of the USofA Citizen????????????
November 19, 1997
FOCUS-Rubin hails Manila pact, urges S.Korea reforms

WASHINGTON, ( Reuters ) - Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin Wednesday put his formal seal of approval on a pact to foster regional cooperation to head off future Asian financial crises, saying he "strongly endorses" the deal.

Deputy finance ministers from Asia and the United States, as well as top International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) officials meeting in Manila, agreed on a framework for regional cooperation to promote financial stability and a set of proposals to strengthen the IMF's capacity to respond to such troubles.

"The United States strongly endorses these proposals, which will assist the countries of the region in meeting successfully the challenges of financial globalization," Rubin said in a statement.

"I would also note the importance we attach to the statement in Manila that the region's strong economic fundamentals provide a basis for confidence that the region will return to robust growth and can continue to benefit from globalization," Rubin added.

The statement also noted that recent turmoil in world financial markets had not altered the consensus that open capital markets bring significant benefits to economies.

Financial woes that have swept through Southeast Asia have triggered sharp gyrations in world markets. Two of the hardest hit countries in the region, Indonesia and Thailand, were forced to seek international bailout packages totaling some $60 billion.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:46 - ID#31868)
Good grief there are so many. I am not familiar with the company you mentioned. I have been invested in Tan Range for a long time now and have been in Oro Peru for a while.

John k__A
(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:49 - ID#24854)

Some interesting observations reguarding the bankrupcy of Hokkaido Takushou Bank Ltd.Assets are shown as $80.57 billion with deposits of only $47.63 billion.This would indicate substantial over-seas borrowing to fund the difference.In that some of these loans are likely in U.S. dollars,this may indicate the potential for massive foreign exchange losses in Japanese banks.It also indicates the exposure of foreigners to the Japanese banking system.This exposure has not been discussed by analyst's,but when the Japanese financial system collapses,could lead to banking failures around the world.
The major shareholders of Hokkaido Takushou bank were all Life Insurance Company's and other banks.In that banks and insurance companys are relying on their equity in bankrupt institutions for their own capital base further increases the total risk in the system.

Seperately,Takugin Mortgage Acceptance Corp.,a non bank affiliate of Hokkaido Takushoku Bank also declared bankrupcy declaring debts of 367.2 billion yen and liabilities of 205.2 billion yen in excess of assets.In addition,non performing loans were 60% of total lending,pointing to the strong possibility of futher losses.
Over the last few years,the losses at Japanese financial institutions that have closed,all appear to be over 50% of assests,and in some cases approaching 90%.Prudent banking would be to close banks when they have lost their capital base,which is generally only a small fraction of total assets.In addition,in spite of clear insolvency,where not only the capital base has gone,but also the value of the assets supporting deposits has also greatly diminished,these institutions were only closed down as a last resort when mergers could not be accomplished.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:49 - ID#41186)
TEST ... Bart check your emal
This is a test

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:49 - ID#31868)
I am not looking to sell one ounce of physical. I am looking for the price of some paper to fly through the roof. There are some interesting times just in front of us.

I say make some money, don't get greedy, and come out way ahead of this game.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:53 - ID#335190)
Newmont @ Prudent step re: 3 cent dividend
November 19, 1997
Newmont Mining cuts dividend to conserve cash

DENVER ( Reuters ) - Newmont Mining Co., North America's largest gold producer, said Wednesday it had lowered its quarterly dividend to conserve cash as gold prices drop.

"We are taking this prudent step to conserve cash and sustain a successful development program in the face of sharply lower gold prices," Ronald Cambre chairman said.

The dividend cut, which also affects its affiliate Newmont Gold Co., lowered the payout to 3 cents a share from 12 cents.

Newmont, one of the world's lowest cost gold producers with total cash costs of $188 per ounce this year, said it still expects to post higher earnings for 1997. Wednesday, the price of gold closed $2.60 an ounce lower at $305.00 on New York's Commodity Exchange.

"We believe our shareholders will understand the importance of maintaining this momentum even if it means forgoing the usual dividend at this time," Cambre said.

"While we do not expect the current depressed gold market to continue indefinitely, we must take the appropriate steps to preserve our financial flexibility and avoid additional borrowings," he said.

Cambre said Newmont Mining and Newmont Gold, which report earnings jointly, plan to develop several major new projects next year. The dividend is payable Dec. 18 to holders of record Dec. 4.

Newmont Mining was off 12.5 cents at $29.875 and Newmont Gold lost 81 cents to $31.69, both on the New York Stock Exchange.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:57 - ID#31868)
Clearly while some mines are screaming the blues there are other mines that are licking their chops. There are going to be some huge plays coming out of the future.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 20:57 - ID#431263)
Herr LGB et al--

Read an interesting article in tonight's paper by syndicated columnist Charley Reese under the above heading. I felt it should be read by all so I'm reprinting it here. IMHO he hits the nail squarely on the head with regard to the economic slowdown we're about to experience here in the US.

"What do economic yuppies and former Alabama Governor George Wallace have in common? Well, at one point, Wallace, who is basically a good and decent man, stood up and said, 'Segregation today, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever,' or words to that effect. He did not realize that he was standing on the railroad tracks of history and was about to get flattened by a train.

The economic yuppies are shouting, 'Economic growth today, economic growth tomorrow, economic growth forever.' They, too, are about to get flattened by history's freight train.

If you look carefully, you can see the beginning of global deflation, and deflation means the economy will contract not expand. You can't amend or avoid reality, and reality is what economics is about, not computer models or academic theories. The reality is that production now exceeds demand. There is more stuff for sale than there are folks to buy it. Now you can find 14,000 experts who will tell you that's not so, but just mark your calendar so you will remember what this old country boy is telling you.

Too many people don't understand that demand consists of two essential components. Any good door-to-door salesman can tell you that. One component is desire. To make a sale, the prospect has to want what you're
selling. That's why you can't sell ice in the Arctic or sun lamps in the Sahara.

The second and critical component of demand is the capability to saitsify the desire. A guy may desire intensely what you are selling, but if he can't afford it, there will be no sale.

Too many Americans look at people with bare feet and say, 'Wow, that's a great market for shoes.' They forget that if those people could afford to buy shoes they wouldn't be barefooted. People don't die from hunger or suffer from malnutrition because there is no food. They die and suffer because they can't afford to buy food.

There's a big difference between today's capitalists and men like Henry Ford. Ford recognized reality: that if he wanted to sell a lot of cars, then a lot of people had to be able to afford to buy them. Therefore, he was one of the first to raise employees' wages.

Today's capitalists tend to be short-timers. They look upon their corporations as simply cash-flow generators to be looted. After they have theirs, they don't care if the corporation survives or not.

Hence, they lay off American workers to move a plant to a cheap labor country. This temporarily increases their profits because they are selling for the same price while they have drastically cut their costs. Increased profits are what the stock analysts look for. They tout the stock. The price of the stock rises. The looters exercise their stock options and make a killing.

But what happens in the long run? Demand is reduced. The laid-off Americans can no longer afford to buy, and the people in their foreign sweatshops can't afford to buy what they are paid too little to make.

When demand shrinks, sales decrease. When sales decrease, revenue decreases. When revenue decreases, expenses must be cut; hence, layoffs and closed plants and fewer purchases from vendors, all of which further decreases demand by rendering more and more people incapable of satisfying their desires.

Kodak, at the height of what experts call a six-year economic expansion, just announced its plans to lay off 10,000 people. And Kodak is not alone. As the process of contraction continues, people will start to dump their stocks and the market will start to fall.

And there isn't a darn thing the experts can do about it!"

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:05 - ID#429203)
COMEX Stocks
Arden, Thank you for the clarification. The way I understand it, gold maybe in shorter supply than silver, especially for Dec. 97 delivery.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:07 - ID#270104)
Sorry, GFD!
The previous post "COMEX Stocks" was from me, not GFD. I accidently typed in the wrong password.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:07 - ID#270104)
Sorry, GFD!
The previous post "COMEX Stocks" was from me, not GFD. I accidently typed in the wrong password.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:08 - ID#420428)
How do I find out if/how much bullion the US CB is buying/selling?
I hear lots about Australia, Switzerland, and Germany, but what is the US doing? Is there a website that gives this info?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:09 - ID#335190)
Canadian Tax payer's @ Bail out World Central Bankers (What is in it for Canadians???)
November 19, 1997
Major countries negotiating Asian bailout fund, Martin says

OTTAWA ( CP ) - Canada is among industrialized countries discussing a bailout fund to stabilize currencies of several Asian nations, Finance
Minister Paul Martin says.

Martin said in an interview Wednesday that progress was made this week by finance ministers of the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation countries meeting in Manila.

But more discussions will likely continue after next week's meeting of APEC leaders in Vancouver, Martin said. Led by Japan, several Asian countries began pushing this fall for a stabilization fund that would bail out several APEC countries like Thailand and Malaysia in much the same way the industrialized countries helped out Mexico in February 1995.

Asian countries feel the IMF is out of touch with the regions and oppose its involvement.

"Otherwise you would make a chaotic situation much worse. As long as in fact that it is the IMF directives which govern, then that would be a
perfectly acceptable."

In the 1995 bailout, Canada contributed $1.5 billion U.S. Asked if Canada would contibute to an Asian bailout, Martin would only say "announcements will be made in due course. Essentially we're a very major IMF player and will continue to be that."

"Otherwise you would make a chaotic situation much worse. As long as in
fact that it is the IMF directives which govern, then that would be a perfectly acceptable."

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:15 - ID#7568)

Since none of us are privy to the meetings of central bankers or their political masters we are certainly throwing darts when it comes to the future of thier actions. There are however a few facts at hand of which we can not lose sight.

Going into this year the gold market was in deficit by something on the order of 500 tons if you believe the middle of the road estimates. Some have opined that this number is actually understated by a factor of two.

Going into next year the market will be in deficit by something on the order of 1000 tons given 300 dollar gold and again using the middle of the road estimates on supply and demand.

For the price to remain at 300 or go lower CB's will have to supply the 1000 tons to the market. Looking over the current holdings of CB's and one is drawn to the conclusion that either some second tier holders such as Portugal will have to liquidate thier stocks entirely, or we will have to have some selling from one of the big holders such as US, Germany, France, Switzerland, or Italy. I believe that sales from the US, and Switzerland are proscribed by law, and Germany has already said no. This leaves it up to France or Italy.

Neither, France nor Italy has until now chosen to play the gold card in its efforts to make EMU. Since this would be the most likely rational for such action, now would be a strange time to start the process since they are both going to make the fuzzy EMU criteria without such action.

In not very long, the new European Central bank issue is going to be cleared up. The distribution of reserves in this newly created CB will probably set the tone for the gold market. My guess is that because the Europeans see the gigantic benefits to becoming a 'reserve' currency they are likely to minimize the number of US dollars in their reserve mix. If they are trying to create an alternate reserve currency, they will best be served by having non dollar reserves. Otherwise it would kind of be like Microsoft packaging Netscape in Windows 98.

The biggest and perhaps only comfort to the short side of the trade is potential CB unloading. If this is taken out of the equation, its a whole new ball game. Given the bloated short positions it could be a fearsome rally indeed.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:16 - ID#333131)
micro caps as options
DA, Your view of the micro's as being like out of the money, long experation, options uses the identical language that James Grant used in featuring CCH @9/16 a couple months ago.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:17 - ID#335190)
Canadian Savings @ Down @ 0.9 lowest since Depression era
November 18, 1997
Canadians saving less, but more of its going to RRSPs

TORONTO ( CP ) - It seems contradictory: while our savings rates have plunged to 60-year lows, we've been salting away a record amount in RRSPs, according to a Statistics Canada report Tuesday.

Canadians set aside a record $26 billion towards retirement in registered retirement savings plans last year, StatsCan said. However, that doesn't jibe with widely reported drops in our personal savings rate, which plummeted to 0.9 per cent last summer - a depth not seen since the Depression era.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:19 - ID#411149)
tolerant1- you must be on Jim Blanchard's mailing list. A major portion of his lastest Gold Newsletter was on the advantages of owning Durban Deep, iffin you thought the price of gold wasa goin up, better than gold options.

Me and DA own a bunch of Aurizon and it is a great junior and on sale now as a lot of other good companies are, but not for long!

Tally Ho

Early Riser
(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:19 - ID#228275)
Golden Cheese: That thing you posted about slow growth - we're seeing more and more of that kind of news. My guess on the timing of when gold will turn up will be when the fed decides they have to do something about it, i. e. open the spigots of liquidity.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:22 - ID#316200)
John k_A & Go Cheese
I guess when you go into a Tokyo bank to make a deposit ( give them a loan ) , it is a good idea to turn the tables and ask to see their collateral. GC, Charley Reese ( of the Orlando FL Sentinel ) is known to be a good economist and a libertarian. His question is simply, who will buy the products if everyone is laid off. Good Question! The answer is that the laws of economics get you whether you know them or not!

Early Riser
(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:25 - ID#228275)
Bart: What an improvement!!!!!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:26 - ID#69149)
Philharmonic Gold Coins
I have so far picked up two Austrian Philharmonic gold coins. I like the fact that they are pure gold coins. However, they are probably not as negotiable as American Eagles or Maple Leafs. How popular are these Philharmonics among your respective locales?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:32 - ID#426220)

Internationally acclaimed market analyst, James Dines, shares his insights and foresights with us about current currency crisis.

Asia is awash in hammered & cascading currencies. The deluge of devaluations in South East Asia is spilling over into other countries on the opposite side of the globe -- and will wreak havoc in world stock markets. The Currency Contagion continues unabated...

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:35 - ID#31868)
No problem whatsoever.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:36 - ID#431263)
Herr Early--Methinks the spigots are already fully open if money supply figures from the FED over the past six months mean anything. Furthermore, methinks that they are talking out of both sides of their mouths--fighting inflation publicly to save the bond market while fighting deflation privately to save the global liquidity debt/credit implosion! What thinketh you?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:40 - ID#31868)
I get several newsletters and have been picking and choosing for a long time.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:43 - ID#78100)
@Home Bart- please take note! This is JTF, not korondy!
All: This is JTF,using my new password at home instead of at work. Somehow I got Korondy's handle, despite the fact that I am using my password. Something is amiss! Korondy - apologies in advance!

Anyway, my post was to John K ( Worldview ) , or to anyone who can answer this question:

Hashimoto now plans to use the $2.8trillion public postal fund to bail out the insolvent Japanese banks. Just how are these assets allocated? Stocks, bonds, real estate, cash, etc? This money will not be of much value if it is invested in the bankrupt banks, will it? Are non-cash assets to be liquidated?

I wonder, in a similar situation, would our US of A do the same with our retirement accounts -- ie 401ks, 403bs, etc?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:45 - ID#7568)

It appears that South Korea has succumbed. The currency is down better than 10% tonight.

And to all a good night.

Early Riser
(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:48 - ID#228275)
paper money bath
Herr Cheese: I think you have it right. I guess what matters is their ability to have it both ways.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:48 - ID#339320)
Mr Greenspan, putting his money where his mouth (future intentions) is.

Bart: GREAT password! Where you reserving those for your longtime posters? Anyhow, this new registration should solve most of the problem, but I still think you should charge an annual fee...... this costs money to run, and you are not in business for your health.

A was quoted in the cyberether: "Now, why would a man like Greeenspan put 40% of his holdings in cash? Because he knows that all investments are at risk, contrary to what he tells you to do. And so we've come to the point where there is no part of the financial system which can be saved by bailing it out."

Hmmmmm, now why would THIS old ( and without a doubt best informed ) goldbug put his stash in cash.... and not gold? HE knows the meltdown is coming very soon, or he would be invested in the mutual flavor of the month. No.... he KNOWS that gold will skyrocket, put cannot put ANY of his "declared" funds into would look REAL bad in the press, and condoning gold over gov paper. He KNOWS that gold possession WILL be outlawed; heck, the law is STILL on the books.

My father used to tell me: "It is not always the spoken word that counts, it isusually what was NOT said that does."

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:50 - ID#22785)
Test Post
Test Post.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:53 - ID#340286)
Gold Micro-Cap
DA: Beware of the micro-caps that have no reserves and looking for money. In past bull markets triggered by a gold price recovery ( after a prolonged bear ) , junior producers have been the best performers. The good juniors well managed are not looking for money now. EIther they have enough or they are no fool and will not finance at these ridiculous low prices. The best sector now is the junior and mid-tier producers of which many are selling as micro-caps. There is a firesale and many can be purchased at discount to NPV and even meaningful discount to book value.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:57 - ID#342273)
amount of gold in CB's possession - is it shrinking?
Currently 24,000 tonnes in CBs per statement by Mr. Dale Henderson, Assoc. Dir. International Finance, Federal Reserve System in a talk he gave 11/18. This talk was pointed out by Tyler Rose in his 12:18 on 11/18. Mr. Henderson stated that 20% of all known gold is w/CBs. My notes say the known gold in world 120,000 metric tons - is that accurate? My previous notes had CB holdings at 40,000 tons, now if I didn't make an error; then did Mr. Henderson mis-speak or is this getting interesting? Comments please

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:57 - ID#316200)
liquidity spigot
It has been said that AG must inflate or die! I personally believe his main goal is simply to maintain the illusion of solvency of the treasury. Also, he tries to maximize profit by extracting the maximum rate of interest without totally distroying the USD while the insiders are still holding. It is hard to fight the Fed. But, if i could translate Fedspeak I would probably do the exact opposite of the way he was sounding. Probably the best thing to do is hold gold as protection from In-deflation.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 21:59 - ID#353196)
Charlie Reese
A cursory glance at his stuff shows some things I find interesting, plus he's a big stock bear ; ) However I doubt he's a die-hard libertarian. It's rare for a "true" libertarian to take even a mildly negative stance wrt free trade or any other aspect of free markets. At one sees a hint of anti-free trade sentiment. The article deals with fast-track authority. I have no idea what the general consensus among libertarians is about fast-track. Personally I have no trust for Clinton but as my personal inclination is in favor of free trade ( something I don't wish to argue on this forum -- it's bad enough I'm making this post which is so irrelevant to gold ; ) it appears that Clinton's intention is to lower trade barriers while congress usually intends to maintain them. During more "normal" economic circumstances I might cite protectionism as a contributor to inflation. Currently I expect that a wave of competitive devaluations across the world means inflation isn't on the horizon for us for some time. South Korea's decision to step back on the defense of the Won makes me wonder if a new wave of devaluations won't occur -- this time with a greater impact on S. America.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:02 - ID#431263)
Wonder what a chart of gold would look like in terms of Korean won, Thai baht, Indonesian ringget etc.? After a 50% devaluation it must be rocketing off the chart! Predict something similar for US dollar once the folly of a debt-based fiat currency serving as world cb reserve is finally exposed for the sham that it is! Seems that those holding gold in Asia tonight are the real winners in all of this mess! US paperboys take note!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:06 - ID#30116)
New high in the CRB/XAU ratio.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:07 - ID#287367)
Couldn't have said it better myself. "The powers that be" must be scared sh!tless the way they're poundin' away at the yellow stuff. They'll run outta ammo sooner or later.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:11 - ID#31868)
The numbers relating to CB gold amounts seems to change quite a bit. If as they say that gold trade on the LGBA is 1300 to 1400 tons daily, one can imagine how these numbers can get abused as it were.

On USA GOLD'S daily report it was stated that 9000 tons went into the Iron Mountain depository, which as they stated is usually for long term storage for people that want to hold and own. Actually they said it was a little over 9000 tons, but whose counting a few hundred pounds at that level.

Needless to say, alot of gold has been and is moving around the planet, yet the yada, yada, yada is that gold is not money.

Clinton, Rubin and Greenspan can all sell their assets before I give them one ounce of lint.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:12 - ID#316200)
Gorgonzola re Charley Reese
Charley is a hard hitting reporter, in the old big city tradition and you really dont find all that many writers of his caliber expressing controversial opinions and still being in print. I met him at a libertarian function in Orland several years ago ( he was speaking to the group ) , and can attest that he is a fine gentleman. On your request for comments regarding devaluations, you will recall the round of competative interest rate reductions the world went through recently, and more recently you have seen several apparent competative currency devaluatuions. I would look for alot more of the same.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:14 - ID#287367)
The French will never sell their gold, they're too smart. Remember DeGaulle thumbing his nose at the US way back when? Kinda like those roosters and Napoleons me-self.

Hoosier Gold Bug
(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:14 - ID#401132)
South Korea & Dues
Two unrelated subjects...The de facto devaluation of the Won of S. Korea has real bad implications for other emerging countries ( not to minimize Japan.. ) The growing tide of deflation is really scary...Nobody in the US younger then 70 has any experience with the coming wave...
Short term gov paper and gold/silver for me...

Change the subject...I have been lurking here for a few months... have really enjoyed learning ( and being entertained.. ) by everybody...Bart does a great job and I for one would willingly pay some dues...what do the other goldbugs think?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:17 - ID#31868)
What's the score in Japan tonight?
How in the world can the people of Japan last much longer. They must be going ballistic. Anybody have a current read on the index their?

Early Riser
(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:19 - ID#228275)
Carl: Liked your 21:16 reference to James Grant and CCH. I got into that one for exactly that reason: Saw it as a surrogate for long term gold option.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:20 - ID#420428)
to tolerantl
I am new on this discussion group, am researching a novel on gold ( IV= intrinsic value ) vs. other investment tools, enough said. Whenever I ask this group, how can I find out if the US CB is buying or selling gold, no one answers the question...please there a website that gives US transactions?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:20 - ID#270104)
USAGold Error
Tolerant1: USAGold has an error re: Iron Mountain deposit. It was made yesterday, and it was just a shade over 9,000 troy ounces, not tonnes! You could check the FWN reports, but as I remember it was something lkike 9,300 ounces.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:21 - ID#270104)
USAGold Error
Tolerant1: Nikkei at the sushi break time is up 545.45

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:23 - ID#31868)
Thanks! Details, sheesh!

Early Riser
(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:24 - ID#228275)
Hoosier: I wouldn't care about a few bucks for the privilege of posting here, but hope Bart doesn't do it for another reason - I think it would slow down getting in of new participants. This discussion
benefits hugely from constant influx of new thought and viewpoints.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:26 - ID#31868)
I do not know the answer to that one. You might try they have excelent info there that may be of help to you.

Anybody out there have an answer?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:27 - ID#393224)
golden bells
Nobody ever rings a bell when the bottom of a long bear market is reached. A slight uptick may mark the start of the bull. Most will say "oh yeah, just another uptick before we start back down." One of these days soon the "little uptick" is going to gather pace and keep on going. Those waiting with dry powder will be sitting like stunned mullets while the "uptick" gets away from them. "I've been waiting all these years to get back in and now the danged thing has run away from me" will be a common comment on this site. The downside on gold is now much smaller than the up. Those wanting to beat the rush shall have to make some serious decisions soon.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:29 - ID#31868)
You can also try

Gold Newsletter site

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:30 - ID#270104)
US FRB Gold Sales
IV: The Wall Street Journal publishes the amount of gold held by the Fed Gov. You can infer from the changes what transactions took place. ( As far as I can remember, there haven't been any for over 10 years. ) The dealings are state secrets.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:33 - ID#270104)
Nikkei in real time
but ignore the graph, it does not refresh too often. The numbers do.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:33 - ID#31868)
IV - One more for you.

good luck

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:36 - ID#270104)
Hang Seng real time
Hang Seng Index ( Hong Kong )
updates automagically once per minute. Now +45.16

Hoosier Gold Bug
(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:37 - ID#401132)
"A Threat to the World"

A thought-provoking editorial out of the FT from London Thursday edition.

You will have to register with the FT first, but it is worth it.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:38 - ID#34864)
YEN/DOLLAR relationship
How's the yen/dollar chart looking amidst all these devaluations... Where are good short,medium and longterm yen/dollar charts on the web???

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:41 - ID#335190)
Marijuana @ Cannabis & APEC & Canada & "YES" Legalize Marijuana & HEMP
November 19, 1997
Pacific Rim leaders urged to visit cannabis cafe

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Nov 19 ( Reuters ) - In case they get bored with the official program for their summit in Canada, Pacific Rim leaders were invited on Wednesday to enjoy the fruits of North America's "marijuana breadbasket."

Officials of the 18-member Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) forum have gathered in Vancouver, British Columbia for meetings on economic topics ahead of a summit of their leaders here next week.

Groups in favor of legalizing cannabis took out full-page newspaper advertisements in Vancouver on Wednesday welcoming the APEC officials to British Columbia, a big grower of illicit marijuana.

Calling for greater tolerance toward marijuana, the groups invited the officials to "enjoy some delicious hemp seed cuisine in a comfortable and educational atmosphere""at a local cannabis cafe.

A worker at the cafe said there was no word yet whether any of the APEC leaders would accept the invitation. The cafe and two affiliated stores are technically illegal but local authorities have not moved against them.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:41 - ID#37867)
Far East Climax
Far East Markets: Up on Thursday
Down on Friday
Up on Monday
Down on Tuesday
Up tonight

Shouldn't there be some sort of climax soon!!!!!

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:45 - ID#31868)
If they legalize it they will have to pay taxes on it like the rest of us. The way it is now they can traffic, take the worthless currency from their country, trade it in for real money, gold and put it in a vault in any of a bunch of locations with a numbered account.

Why mess up a good thing.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:49 - ID#340374)
spud master and everyone, fire away

Please direct all e-mail to the Chris Mason you located
through DejaNews. Go Blue Devils.

LGB - The 'outing' occured in July. Hepcat had already
been outed by e-mail communication between
the regulars prior to this, ( I sent a number of e-mails
to people to get the ball rolling ) and it was just a matter
of time before someone made this knowledge public.
If I was at all concerned, I wouldn't have signed on as in the first place. There
are a lot of people at this site who harbor strange
notions and have a lot of time on their hands, if
you get my drift.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:51 - ID#335190)
Tolerant 1 @ 22:45
Outstanding points. Now, do you have the "Symbol" and the Market that they trade on. Thanks. Take Care : ) : ) : )

(Wed Nov 19 1997 22:52 - ID#263259)
(LGB, JL, rare coins)
My 2x10^-11 billion dollars worth of opinion. I think that rare coins, particularly gold ones are a really dangerous place to learn numismatics. Sure, their prices go up, but fads change and there is alot of hype. I would suppose if you had a million dollars you could corner the market on type two gold dollars then dole them out at inflated prices...or with $40,000 you could put together a moderately good set of type coins, but rare coins take a lot of up front capital. And what happens if NGCA or ANA goes bust then you're left with unverifiable slabbed coins? I think that if a person were really serious about them they's want to find out exactly what they want, research the wholesale prices and call several dealers.

silver plate
(Wed Nov 19 1997 23:05 - ID#288433)
FRB gold transactions
korondy: your post of 22:30 so where does the mint obtain the gold for

its growing gold eagle sales?

(Wed Nov 19 1997 23:06 - ID#335190)
USofA President Bush @ University of Toronto Hurling snowballs Only in Canada EH!
November 19, 1997
George Bush gets degree

TORONTO, Nov 19 ( Reuters ) - Hundreds of student protesters chanting "shame, shame""hurled snowballs at dignitaries as they arrived at Canada's largest university on Wednesday for a ceremony honoring former U.S. president George Bush.

"It reminds me of happy hour at the Baghdad Ramada Inn out there," Bush said after receiving an honorary doctor of laws degree from the University of Toronto over the din of megaphones, drums and chants from protesters gathered outside.

The decision to grant Bush the degree ignited angry debate on campus and threats from some faculty and students that they would prevent the ceremony entirely.

Protestors cited Bush's career in the Central Intelligence Agency, the Iran-Contra scandal and 1989 U.S. invasion of Panama as evidence of his unsuitability for the degree.

During the presentation about 30 faculty members stood and filed from the building in a promised protest."I thought I was getting a standing ovation," said Bush, who served two terms as vice-president under Ronald Reagan from 1981 until 1988 and one term as president from 1989 through 1992. "Really, it doesn't bother me one bit," he said.

Bush's supporters said he was chosen for his life of public service and his crucial role in ending the Cold War."We cannot insist that every degree candidate agree with us on every political matter. We cannot subject every candidate to a litmus test of ideological purity," University of Toronto Professor Jean Smith said at the ceremony.

Police said they made one arrest.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 23:14 - ID#335190)
Tolerant1 @ 22:45 (A Canadian wanting to help, get it right :) :) :)..)
November 19, 1997
Pot smokers of the world: Unite at APEC

VANCOUVER ( CP ) - A certain world leader who has said he smoked pot - but didn't inhale - is coming to town. Marc Emery would like to help him get it right.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 23:21 - ID#41229)
Making the right move!
I'm @ a delema when it comes to taking action @ this period of time. If we indeed are in face a market collapse ( which I do believe ) physical ownership of gold will morthan likely not be allowed.

In Oct. when the markets dropped off, gold stocks spiked down with them. It would seem then to hold back would be the best decision, until the spike down. I'm currently in several mining stocks and debating on selling and taking the average of 20% gain I currently have and getting back in on the spike down.

Currently hold call options in Jan. to July., later months really not lowering yet!

I'm open to suggestions to people who feel the have a multi-angle stratejy.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 23:24 - ID#217243)
Contrary to popular opinion, gold has not lost it's
status as an economic indicator. If anything, it is
currently signaling a major deflation and a bursting
of the world wide debt bubble. The world may be awash
in paper, but if it's not in the hands of the masses
( because they are not getting paid anything ) you get
deflation. If a goverment really wants to reverse this
trend, maybe they should just hand out money on the
street corners for a while.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 23:26 - ID#373403)
Dumb questions from an economist
Why do candidates for the EMU need to sell their gold in advance of membership?
Why are the shorts so oversold ( 8000 tonnes ) ? Are these positions not temporary in nature so that after the next period they have to re-establish their positions? It sounds as if many postings assume these to be long term positions of necessity.

Any help is appreciated.


(Wed Nov 19 1997 23:42 - ID#316200)
No Dumb Questions!
AlKahulik, It would be economically more efficient and effective to overfly the various countries and drop large denominated notes. Steve, the EMU candidates sell gold to meet deficit as a % of GDP targets; shorts can hold on forever. Riefer, if you believe it will not be allowed to hold gold you should probably buy it ( from Kitco ) . This is NOT an ad.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 23:53 - ID#388239)
@ B.C's #1 cash crop(ganja man)
B.C. definitely grows the best marijuana in the world and Mexico some of the worst. It happens to be the #1 cash crop in both Mexico and B.C..

Nevertheless Mexico's economy is booming ( and is now referenced as a safe haven for emerging markets {check Pointcast} while British Columbia's is the slowest growing in Canada. So much for quality being a precursor for a healthy economy.

(Wed Nov 19 1997 23:57 - ID#318321)
Clinton selling cemetary plots
WSF has informed me that this is related to gold, so to avoid bandwidth use just check out the following URL

(Wed Nov 19 1997 23:58 - ID#373403)
Trying to find Thursday
Where is everyone?