You asked "Does Gold have a chance to make $350 by March", YES! It has a chance. A one in 10,000 chance.

Hong Kong and Japan looking strong. Korean bailout news http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/korea_picture_1.html

tolerant1

Your post on Ag/Au ratio, thank you, I had seen something similar after spending interesting, but ultimately fruitless time graphing this ratio and also the Au/Pa ratio. This was some years ago, unfortunately the data now garbage. I never kept it current.

Your post goes to the heart of some of the interpretated data I see posted here. I mean, the numbers look concrete, but the iconoclactic investor should ( imho ) ask what do the numbers mean? Whence and by whom were they gathered? Who paid for the research. What's in it for the publisher, and so forth, hmmm,

could be a salty Friday night in Paradise.

Kevin Gordon ( Louisiana ) - swamp rock blasting the phones.....

Any one up???


got some tails need speaching?

Asia euphorically strong. Yes! God is in His heaven and all is right with the world. .... Now what we can look foward to is the US markets diverging ( showing leadership ) to the downside. Hmmmmm? ..... Had to have a reason to check out the new password.

If a one-world e-currency becomes a reality...what will all those poor currency traders do for a living?

What happened to Ted, George Cole, Mike Sheller, APH, Ron, & Donald? Password fatalities?? I miss them.

AUSSIE: Are you the poster/artist formerly known as Nick@Aussie??

Gotta go...G'nite.

It will of course be a shame that thousands of overpaid hormonally excitable currency traders will be unemployed and have to do a real job in the event of the NWO's e-currency materialising ( if that is the word for such an thereal money ) --- on second thoughts, it is probably the best reason I've heard yet for this 666$$$.

TED is scouting the Northern US

Mike Sheller is a hungry gastrologer just waiting for the most propitious moments to drop some starman sagacities our way, if we're lucky. He bin out causing mayhem in the deserts ...



aurator

Thank-you for providing this arena of discussion, Bart. I have been "lurking" for some months. Question: there seems to be no way to go back in time beyond the messages that are currently displayed to the bottom of the list, i.e. several hours previous. So how does one check back on answers to questions one may have asked the day before? ( perhaps this is obvious to others, but as I am new, not to me. ) How could, say 48 hours "memory" be recallable by a subscriber? This would eliminate the need to "stay tuned" in the moment to get the discussion result one wishes. Perhaps this is asking too much...as a newcomer I am only pondering out loud...

password problems.

ALL: Thought the following would be both amusing and instructive. Of course, dear old LGB will say that it is indicative of the way most here at Kitco think. Our long-suffering friend Puetz, on the oither hand, would probably see it as indicative of how the great masses of paper equity players think. Which camp do you fall into? You make the judgement:

A freshman at Eagle Rock Junior High won first prize at the Greater
Idaho Falls Science Fair, April 26. He was attempting to show how
conditioned we have become to alarmists practicing junk science and
spreading fear of everything in our environment. In his project he urged
people to sign a petition demanding strict control or total elimination of the chemical "dihydrogen monoxide."

And for plenty of good reasons, since:
1. it can cause excessive sweating and vomiting
2. it is a major component in acid rain
3. it can cause severe burns in its gaseous state
4. accidental inhalation can kill you
5. it contributes to erosion
6. it decreases effectiveness of automobile brakes
7. it has been found in tumors of terminal cancer patients

He asked 50 people if they supported a ban of the chemical.
Forty-three ( 43 ) said yes,
six ( 6 ) were undecided,
and only one ( 1 ) knew that the chemical was water.

The title of his prize winning project was, "How Gullible Are We?

I get a kick out of the fact that you are watching the Asian markets like the rest of us for a clue on the trend. If you were truly comfortable with the current state of the markets, you would not bother looking!

Why not sit back and let your investments in the market grow unattended?

Personally, I do think the US markets may be heading up for a while ( days? longer? ) , because of the "flight to safety" by those who have invested in foreign markets. I wonder, would Saddam Hussein do something just because he knows what he could do to our markets? He could cause a world wide financial collapse! Demand for oil would drop off quite a bit though.

What I would worry about is how many other markets around the world will falter, like Brazil and then South America. Many US companies are now international, with profit and loss determined by the world economy. At the current time about 1/3 of the world's economy is rapidly heading south - not good for the international US concerns.

With regard to the purely US-based companies, if they sell goods that are also manufactured on parts of the world that, for example, got a 30-40% depreciation, all of a sudden their competition just got 30-40% cheaper! Not good for the old balance sheet if you are US-based only, unless you have no foreign competition. Wait till those hundreds of thousands of cheap autos Donald posted about reach our shores. What's left? Service industries?

I also suggest that you review historical data on the world economies, and ask yourself when the last time 1/3 ( or more? ) of the world's economy went into a major economic slump of this magnitude.

I suspect that you will not be able to find any period like this since 1929.

I just posted a long message. It was supposed to show up. Where is it?

Test

Strad G'day
Like the long chemical name thingy
Always myself liked Tom Robbins' conspiracy theory.. he said that human beings were just a plot by water to carry itself across land.

to Aurator and others

I posted this 3 hours ago and it seems to have

evaporated into cyberspace. Although Aurator

holds the ratio in distain, it is merely the price

of gold expressed in terms of ounces of silver

"A few weeks ago, I pointed out that the gold/silver

ratio had broken it's more recent supports and that there

was no likely support before the 57.75 ratio than it hit

around 1988.

Well, we are effectively there now. Fortunately, the

fall in the ratio was not so much due to gold falling

as it was to silver rising. It could have been worse.

In any event, I would NOT like to see the gold/silver

ratio fall below say 57.5. Then there would be no

telling where it may go."

In reading the site recently, I feel that while

we have eliminated the annoying madmen who visited us,

we may have lost more than we have gained. The site

is suddenly overly antiseptic.

Bart
How is it that we only get wierd up-side down things hapenning on the morning shift, is it just your way of making sure us antipodeans don't post too much?

or are you an antipodeanist?

perhaps equal rights for equal hemispheres, after all gay whale bikies have rights....

John Disney, G'day,

I would not say I hold it in disdain, merely am not convinced, after trying to convince myself. I almost posted before, that I really would very much appreciate to hear your take on this resistance level and the use of the Ag/Au ratio. Just because I didn't see anything before...I've learnt so much here......

I learnt a long time ago that when things look like you're in a blind alley, often the best thing to do is go back over all the stuff you through out - the odds are , what you omitted has sent you on a blind path. this is something like Forte's Damned Data that Auric and I hark to..

aurator

test

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 1:03AM 16721.58 +413.09 +2.53%

As we have seen from the last few days, by taking the proactive approach of buying their own stock market the Japanese government has saved everybody and everything. Please note at this rate 400 pts a day it will take them only 60 days ( roughly 3 months ) to add the 24,000 points to move them to a new high of 40,7xx. What a wonderful new year's present for the world.

I love the modern operation of governments, they no longer need free markets ( free markets are just to messy and painstaking ) . The U.S. buys their market, Japan buys theirs, ... . Oh where will it take them?

Embalmers -Strange topic I know? How many are stealing fillings from the dead?Do you know the truth?How would you Know? This is a great business for the funeral parlours, forever a death is profitable.Happy Trails

You stated that Y2K will be a non-event for the financial markets. I assume that you have a programming background to support your claims.

Having been a COBOL programmer since the '60's, I am familiar with the kinds of "legacy" code which pose the biggest problems. If there are companies which have software to fix old code, please let the S.S. Admin. know because they have already wasted many years and a lot of taxpayers' money on this problem. And I understand that the state disability systems ( several million lines of code ) which interface to S.S. have not yet been addressed.

Other examples of areas of concern include imbedded chips and the interdependence of compliant and non-compliant sysems.

I have read some excellent postings here from "old" programmers who understand the possible problems. I'm not convinced that disaster is imminent, but, because of my background, I'm not certain that it isn't.

Loved that story Strad, Dr Dean Edell had that story last week on his syndicated radio show ( Good old Dr Dean, well known hater of all junk science, "holistic" medicine, quackery, Colonics, Astrology, and faulty reasoning of all types! ) and yes Strad, you have me pegged.

When I heard the story, I thought of Kitco immediately! Now I have to take my midnight Atroprojection visit to Area 51 to see the aliens..nite.. )

A. Goose: Like your post on Japanes and American approach to markets. I wonder, why does Japan need all of those postal savings funds? Why not just create the money to hold up the markets?

Aurator - Gay white whale bikies? Is that a new species of whale? If so, I would like to know what part of the world they frequent? Never seen one. Just one solitary grey whale eyeball to eyeball about 2 miles off the coast of SanDiego calif. Haven't had a chance to leave mid-america for years.

Did you both see Bill Bucklers post about the US debt? Very interesting. Our WJClinton will have some explaining to do in about 3 months or so.

Good night from the anti-antipodean world ( did I get it right? ) Or is it propodean?

JTF, my Canadian, Austrailian, et al friends will think I'm hopelessly U.S.centric for saying this, but those puny Asia/Latin America markets are a mere blip on the radar screen compared to the MIGHTY economy of the U.S.

The difference between now and 1929 is that we have open markets, no protectionist scares to speak of, very low unemployment, low inflation, high pruductivity, strong corporate profits, very strong dollar ( lok how they're flocking to the U.S. for safety eh! ) , good balance of trade, highly diversified economy, most flexible economy in the world, dropping ( if not disappearing ) deficit, and a WHOLE lot of Legislative differences re the stock market compared to 1929, such as 401K plans and IRA's that'l keep pumping savings monies in week after week, then we have all the newer liquidity features built into the markets, less speculation by the "little guy" ( Who showed ZERO propensity to panic or sell on Off white Monday ) . This just scratches the surface!!

Yeah I follow the Asian markets because they obviously impacted us on "Off White Monday" but if anything, that experience has toughened the resolve of our U.S. market investors to ride out such blips and let the "Pros" and sepculators get killed.

Puetze, if I don't get my market crash prediction at least once a week, I get a case of withdrawels that makes me shiver awake all night! It's only your contrarian indicator crash calls, that make me feel safe and warm about the market. No don't clam up on us now or I'll start getting worried! How come you always are so scarce when the DOW is so strong eh? You only show up on DOWN days Puetz??

( I think Puetz and others are having problems with the new password system. It hoses some people up when you first send for your password, then you have no recourse. I know because it happened to me on my other service account and it's unrecoverable because you get no password via return mail, and you're stuck with your new handle, no password, and no way to try again, until Bart tells us how we can try again )

Bears try their luck
Short sellers reap rewards when stock market tumbles
http://www.dallasnews.com/business-nf/biz41.htm
On Nightly Business Report they said that short positions are now at the
highest $ level ever.
The levels now far exceeds the levels seen over the last few weeks.

U.S. consumers review confidence amid Asia angst
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971119/u_s_consumers_review_2.html

US OPTIONS FOCUS/Jury out on expiration influence
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971119/us_options_focus_jur_2.html

Friday November 21, 1:27 am Eastern Time

Australian stocks close higher as Nikkei

SYDNEY, Nov 21 ( Reuters ) - Australian stocks raced ahead in Friday afternoon trade in tandem with the Nikkei's rally, as
brokers were buoyed by talk Australia's key export markets in North Asia may be able to pull themselves out of the mire.

``I think there's a feeling that the situation in Japan and Korea is being addressed rather better than it has been before,''
Intersuisse Equities director Howard Elton said.

North Asia, including Japan, Taiwan and Korea, takes about 41 percent of Australia's exports accounting for eight percent of
GDP, largely in the form of iron ore, coal and metals.

-- POSSIBLE LOST DATA --

\000 The All Ordinaries index closed up 1.93 percent or 47.0

points at 2,482.7 after Japan's Nikkei index rose 2.82 percent in afternoon trade.

Hopes that the Japanese government may use public money to solve Japanese banks' bad loan problems boosted the market
there. Japan is Australia's largest export market.

Meanwhile the South Korean stock market rose about three percent on talk the government there would relent and ask the
IMF for a bailout package worth about US$60 billion.

Korea is Australia's second largest export market.

Strad and others having trouble with The Twilight Zone. Welcome to Antipodean reality. We have been experiencing this phenomenon for months! Seems to happen between 00:00 and 02:00. Not to worry. Just scroll down to the bottom and your post will magically appear. Some kind of loop. We loopy Antipodeans ( especially Auracious ) are quite used to it.

Where are all of our chartists?? Licking your wounds?? C'mon guys/gals. Life wasn't meant to be easy. Especially when the US markets fly in the face of reality. You know, reality always has a habit of catching up. Several Aussie resource shares have shown signs of bottoming and heading back up. A bounce or the real thing?? Time will tell.

How did their gold index go?

Not till the years are running
Through the last few days of their span
Does a man take stock of the moments
That are left to be lived as a man

Through the first hot flush of manhood
And the strength of the middle years
There's never a thought for eventide
For the bitter hour that nears

Regrets are poor consolations
The bright hopes now empty and vain
And of the years rich treasures
Dim images only remain

And the young men take up our burdens
And the young women take their men
And the young world hurries by heedless
Of the old man dreaming again

That's the way it would appear if you go along with the "we lost all our

money..we can't afford no gold " scenario.So it seems now we have.....

If the DOW goes down....no one want's gold..cause it ain't quality.

If the Dow goes down....no one want's gold..cause we lost all our money.

If the Dow goes up......we all happy and buy gold now..oh but wait..stock

go up!!..we should buy more stock now.Forget gold.

If the Dow goes +-=...it won't matter...cause it ain't s'posed ta go

up or down till it's TOLD TO DO SO....GET IT?Simple huh?

Now go find out what it's being told to do next.Hepper..Ohhhh Hepper....

Heeere puddie puddie puddie....

LGB: You know me... I love to hear about all that fun stuff and then hate finding out that it isn't true. But, that's why I read Skeptical Enquirer cover to cover. Sometimes I find them ( SE ) to be almost too far to the other extreme, though. Nothing is more amusing than listening to Art Bell interview some crackpot about the latest sightings of UFO's building pyramids on Mars. At any moment the Men in Black will be busting down his door...
On the other hand the potentials for a sever market slide still seem possible to me and all your postings to the contrary haven't yet convinced me that it can't happen. Nonetheless, I'm loaded up long on silver bars and short gold so the next few weeks ought to be interesting. Peripherally - I'm glad you've toned down your rhetoric. You are still able to be incisive and funny without being abusive. Thanks!

LGB_2. but isn't the US also the biggest debtor nation in this sweet old world's history? I mean, all your cars and roads and clothes and hollywood and all that glorious sstufff is a bubble, how many trillion dollars finances these Route 66 -- 401 Plans? Paper on paper promises. Please someone post a Continental Note, or an Assignat, please someone post a Bre-X certificate-- or a War Bond, governments lie a little sometimes.....shhhh


I think the Hashimoto cockerel crowed one morning in June, I think the Jackdaws and Rooks have been descending in spirals around what we call S E Asia, and that around the Middle Kingdom the crane is missing from her nest. ( in my duckpond hoppy is gone, her 5 ducklings have become attached to a Turkey - just like Konrad Lorenz said - they haven't been near the water yet ) I wonder how the birds are behaving in the Middle East?

What a pleasant surprise to come here and find Kitco
the way it is. Have read some excellent posts over
the last day or so. Enjoy the level of respect
amongst the posters as well. And yes, I continue to
accumulate gold and silver assets.

Nick@Aussie- you are confusing some of our less nimble colleagues! Thank your Dad once more - shall send that one on, if I may.

Nick@C gd to see you


here we g lp delp.

Is not everyone long silver and short gold? Could the tide turn now
toward gold and away from silver???? I noticed many posters lately mentioning they are long silver and short gold. They take the recent and
long-term silver strength and gold weakness as a sign to load up on
silver and forget gold. The bullishness in silver appears extreme.
The bearishness in gold is extremely extremely extreme. The tide
may turn at any moment. Silver may rally to $5.50 or so in the short-term but GOD help anyone playing this spread if profit-taking
sets in. 6 months to a year from now I would venture to guess gold will come back significantly at the expense of silver. Then again, the
tide could turn starting as early as tomorrow. Comments? This week
soybean oil has been weak and meal strong due to unwinding of the
spreads there. Could the unwinding of the silver and gold spreads
be that far off? Everyone is so sure gold is going to 280....it just
might go to 380 instead!!!
of a fundamental change toward silver.

Auratious-- I've become attached to a turkey as well. Think gold will go up soon though.

Sharefin -- good handle, mate. Haven't seen ( heard ) from you lately. Miss your charts, mate. Am just about getting to the point where I do the OPPOSITE of what the charts say. Seems to be working. Good action in Aussie golds today. How about that DGD and RSG. Makin' up for what I'm losing on the others. Glad I sold my SPI puts . Am looking to get back in with longer expiry.

Strad-- My reliable Strad indicator now says sell silver and buy gold. Whatdoyoureckon,mate?

Manners, young man.
No names, please.
Either bull or bear will suffice.

My ISP has been out for the duration,
I have missed out on all the fun.
Much reading and analyzing to do,
To get back to the job I begun.

Potential for a reversal remains high,
Up and down still look the same.
Not until a new high has been made,
Will we call a new up-leg by its name.

With AG up waiting at his old base,
To stop the bull from going insane.
He is sure to open his mouth,
And bring out the bears again.

Calamities the world abounds in,
Like dominoes they fall one by one.
I would sure hate to be at the bottom,
-- Un-insured --
When the last one has come undone.


Swing chart updated.
The market needs to continue higher, more buying.
To turn the swing upwards.
A failure will point to more selling.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Swiggy.gif

SHORT BULL: Your scenaro with silver won't happen because there are NO silver supplies to speak of. December delivery day is next week and it just isn't in the COMEX to give out. All the stokpiles that are listed there ( 12 year lows even for that ) are already spoken for. A year from now, you may be right about the gold and silver spread reversing, but not in the near term. Gold, on the other hand has a tremendous number of sell stops built up just below 301. If we hit there, I suspect it will be a sudden and severe drop. I am far more long on silver than I am short on gold. The short gold is just insurance. ( Of course, I've been known to be a contrary indicator before, but this time all the signs are pointing toward my being on the right side of the market - for once. )

Your affixation is getting you down. Take a deep breath and relax.

Strad Master: I don't think an obvious trade
can make any money! If there are so many
stops ( which there probably are ) around $300 or
so in gold, the market will open down so hard
it will fill everyone short on the bottom at
$280 or so, and then rally in fast market
conditions straight up to maybe $320 or so, all
in a matter of maybe 5 minutes, and maybe then
people will comments, the bottom is in!

Also, it was good to hear from some of the past Kitco regulars, like Strad, RJ, et al., as well as some of the irregulars, such as Short Bull, and others.

Strad -- no silver supplies for the market?? Forget Comex. If you believe those numbers you are in fairy land. Asians have just seen a HUGE depreciation in many of their currencies. Their silver tea sets etc are now worth a helluva lot more in the local currencies. I can see silver coming out of the woodwork at a reasonable price appreciation ( ala Hunt's market corner days ) . Don't know the logistics of meltdown and sale, but perhaps some our metal-trader Kitcoites can comment. My reasoning-- if silver goes dramatically UP -- supplies will appear from nowhere in great abundance. So if yer gonna make a buck -- be quick!!

I bought Orange Juice a couple times around 70
cents recently but got out with a penny or so
profit because OJ was obviously going much lower...
we recently rallied to 85 cents. Gold's obvious
demise will not be so obvious when we either
fill the stops at the bottom, or we just rally
out of here and leave the shorts with their
money.....no, the markets will probably crash
$300 to take the shorts' money and then rally
like crazy in a matter of minutes!!!

SHORT BULL: Interesting point. I can't comment yes or no, but we'll see, won't we? I don't think the trade is so obvious, though, to people who don't frequent Kitco. Bear in mind that we are a relatively small and self-selected group here. If everyone who posts here did exactly as they said, the markets still wouldn't budge one cent in any direction. Also, many here are still long gold. Silver is another matter altogether.

Selby; a short time ago the Tiger Economies were
considered emerging miracles.
During their exuberant period, they performed at the peak
of efficiency -so it was said. Why gold, when only paper
currency backed by confidence was needed as they were
deemed efficient. By who?
Look at them now, I mean really look.
Are the "NA dollar's" next, or are North Americans so
confident in their leaders - that who needs gold backing,
or at least some gold in the government vaults ?

Gold goes from limit down ( opening ) to fill
all the sell stops at limit down, and then
closes limit up! ...... limit up for a couple
days...... or weeks?????!!!!!

Oh, everyone knows gold is so bearish it
could never rally like that. Not from here
maybe, but maybe from $280 or $250???

Maybe gold will eventually get so bearish it
closes limit down a couple days without trading
to kill all the last die-hard bulls and then
it closes up limit for a few weeks to $500 or so
just to kill all the bears, and then comes
back to a reasonable $400. We could have
1980 in reverse!!!!

looks like the Nikkei will be challenging its old highs if it keeps jumping like it has in the past few sessions ( one of those grin things ) .

If we break $300 on gold I will be aggressively
buying the dip and adding more as we close
back above $300 again. That would be a perfect
bottom as it was in Feb. 1985, after trading 7
weeks between $297 & $310, we dropped for two
weeks straight down to $281.20, and rallied 3
weeks later to $335.

Short Bull--The scenario you put forth would be quite shocking to all on this forum, were it to happen in the next two or three weeks. I would be interested to know if you think this is likely, and if so, do you have a time frame in mind.

No 1989 in reverse anytime soon! For now, I
believe the Feb/March 1985 scenario is most
likely as I mentioned in posting at 3:19.

However, if the bearish in gold persists in an
unrelentless fashion as it now looks like, such
a scenario is possible from an extreme low
gold price of $250 or $200 or $150. Those low
prices could occur eventually if the world
ever believes central banks would like to
become the sole source providers of gold in
the world. Then when the fallacy of the
argument takes root, the mother of all rallies
would ensue. I have never in my lifetime
ever experienced the bearish attitudes that
are now present in the gold metal, especially
when the bearishness is based on possible
future sales, rumors, and inuendo. It boggles
the mind. I feel that under $300 no short is
safe in the gold futures market. As we trade
lower the risk to shorts increases exponentially!
Unwinding of all the forward selling and other
derivatives positions of being short gold, could
cause much greater calamity ( imho ) than any
crash of a stock market or paper ( currency ) .
The bearishness must end on gold before it is
too late.....but it probably won't.

NICK@C: Thanks for the advice. Not to worry, though. I'm getting pretty nimble in my old age and since I already know what you are saying regarding asian silver teapots, I'm not expecting silver to get to $50 an oz as in the good old days of the Hunts. Still, I suspect silver has to rally a bit more before the spoons come out of hiding.

Aurizon Mines who has been held back in stock price because of lack of large reserves, has now shown intent in picking up Casa Beradi ( a mine that has experienced recent troubles ) , but the same mine that has given Golden Knight some nice profits over the years.
Metal stocks are strange animals when the price of gold is down.
Aurizon has until recently, earned money with its 50 % ownership in the Sleeping Giant Mine and is bringing around its 50% ownership in Beaufor.
Only time will tell where Aurizon will be in six months, but at Can $0.68, it looks interesting.

Short Bull--I remember that time. I was up about $6,000 at that time from shorting Gold from Nov. '84 to Mar. '85. Gave it all back and then some when Gold locked limit up one day and never looked back. The unexpected does happen on occasion.

Gold has not yet dropped under $300 to run the
stops, and most long XAU drops have one or two
retests of the lows that fails...so today was
likely not "THE" bottom, but a bottom it was
just the same and great news for us long the
XAU in mutual funds. One more minor new low
approaching 70 to 72 would likely be the bottom
though ( imho ) . We should not hit into the 60's
on this move down because everyone wants to buy
when the XAU gets there....so it will not let
those traders in!

The Nikkei's drop to 13,000 and lower was another
one of those sure things according to Barrons
just 2 publications ago. Henry Weingarten ( sp? )
a stargazer ( astrological technician ) was right
on when he recommended picking up shares in
both Hong Kong and Japan right when the lows
were being made. Mr. Weingarten's calls are
the most accurate that I have seen, and they
are available in print and audio, free on the
internet. Anyone wants to know can email me
at edi@erols.com.

What the hell's going on in Sweden? It's down 21% now. Is this a misquote? http://quote.yahoo.com?m2?u

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u This is the correct URL for World Stock Markets. Check out Sweden.

Don't usually like to pick on someone else's comments, as everyone is
entitled to his or her opinion. However it bothers me a little, when some one like Short Bull, who appears to be a savvey trader, covers both sides of an arguement. That way no mistakes are made. This I've experienced by people who write predictions in their publications, if the markets don't go up they are sure to go down, unless of course they go sideways. Now what is the prediction? Also when someone posts a fact the fact should be substantiated, no?

Please explain the following;


Date: Fri Nov 21 1997 04:04
Short Bull ( To Jack ) ID#288367:
The Nikkei's drop to 13,000 and lower was another
one of those sure things according to Barrons
just 2 publications ago.

Nikkei low was a couple of years ago midway between 14-15,000.

Date: Fri Nov 21 1997 03:53
Short Bull ( XAU hit the final bottom today.....likely not! ) ID#288367:
Gold has not yet dropped under $300 to run the

Last week gold penetrated $300. ever so slightly.

" Could the unwinding of the silver and gold spreads
be that far off? Everyone is so sure gold is going to 280....it just
might go to 380 instead!!! "

Aren't you one of those that stated in posts that followed this quote, that you are
expecting to run the shorts with limit down and then, limit ups?

DA - thanks for the reply! I am most definitely looking forward to the micro-caps that most interest you. Keep us posted or please e-mail me ( hmg@cchono.com ) on your picks. Currently, I'm considering Bema, El Callao, Mongolian Gold Resources, Conquistador, and a few others.

I feel that MGR is worth looking into as they have just started producing and have many interesting properties in Mongolia as well as Canada. Dave Webb is the CEO and regularly posts at the SI site. The url address is:

http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-8663

Thanks again.

Any lurkers who can translate Swedish? http://www.vltmedia.se/

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/australia_miners_ret_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971121/asahi_life_says_hard_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971121/apec_picture_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971121/japan_korea_fears_ne_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971121/markets_asia_chronol_1.html

World Gold Council claims CENTRAL BANKS are not selling GOLD.Low price is because of more banks offering GOLD leasing.I don't understand how lending Gold will drop prices it must be returned. Could somebody explain to me the rational behind this
Go Gold

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971121/oil_opec_1.html

Testing Password

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/cardoso_says_brazil__1.html

Go to http://www.gold-eagle.com

Go to the DIGEST SECTION

Dumb and Dumber by Ted Butler is a great read and should help start you down the path to getting your arms around the whole gold leasing fiasco.

AURATOR: Thanks for the cue...it DOES seem as though I've been to the desert and back. At least to me. Clearly my just dessert. That clanking sound you may be hearing as I walk is the gold nuggets rattling in my pan ( actually an old wok from my garage with the handle taken off ) . Ankles tangled as well in wire silver freshly cracked from the rock, I can assure you that the Arctic Circle tundra in Alaska and our arid southwest still have mucho metal in their skins and bowels. It is not easy juggling three careers these days, not the least of which is officer in a public mining corporation undergoing a dynamic reorganization. The news concerning precious metals being so uniformly dismal, it behoofed me to accept an invitation to enter the business at Filene Basement levels. But the demands on my time are quite sturdy, hence the wandering in the wilderness as you allude to it. Besides, the shareholders come first, and what's a decent, caring insider to do but keep the troops informed and build value, while developing creative business promotions in an absolute WAR of a corporate business climate for mining companies. I will brush the desert dust from my clothes now, and run some crisp Long Island water from the tap. If there's a glitter in my hair, rest assured it is not sequins...

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/u_s_sdr_rate_moved_t_1.html

Carl--Your chronicle of the key dates in the Asian meltdown should be required reading at Kitco.

I agree, Carl, good job.

With the staggering woes that have beset the Asian Tigers as
of late we may well need to expect a whole series of bailouts
for the Pacific economies akin to the 1980s bailout wave. And
the Fed sits poised to monetize new loans as needed. So there
is an endless stream of new debt that the Fed will be
monetizing into the foreseeable future on a grand scale.

All the while the central banks are shedding large portions of gold reserves in their on-going war on gold they are simultaneously weakening their own positions in terms of fungible, highly liquid assets.

A collapse in the stock markets and a run on bank deposits due to a global financial crisis could deal them a severe blow.

An excellent DETAILED review of Central Bank folly may be seen at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/voss112097.html

sharefin: Welcome back -- we missed your poetry, and your graphic analysis!

Testing new password

London--Nov 21--

Analysts at commodities research group GNI said gold continued to languish under the threat of sagging Asian demand and liquidation, coupled with ever increasing evidence that the central banks do not value

gold as an asset.

Merrill Lynch metals analyst Ted Arnold told a conference in London today that he believed central banks would remain a permanent supply factor in the gold market and spot prices would average annually between $310 and $290.

Speaking at the Adam Smith Institute's conference on Commercial Opportunities in the Gold and Diamond Industries of Russia and the Central Asian Republics, Arnold said that a number of European

central banks were marking gold to market on a lagging basis in an attempt to make it a performing asset like bonds or currencies. He named France, Italy and Portugal as central banks known to be doing

so.

This was in effect "demystifying" gold, but once banks increasingly came to learn how to use the lending market first, selling off some or all of their gold would be likely to come later, he said.

"The fact that the Swiss float the idea of selling off 54% of their total gold holdings must tell other central bankers something about how inert and useless their current gold holdings are. Those holdings

must be mobilized and made to earn a keep for their respective central banks," he said.

"In our strongly held view, the price trend for gold will remain sideways to lower for some years to come," he said.

by Michael Brush

email me ... davis@crusader.bac.edu

http://cnnfn.com/markets/wires/9711/21/europe_open/

Sharefin: I especially like that one.

In a nutshell, there can be no bull market, for at time at least.

Our White Night does not want Checkmate at a later time -- better to keep the bubble from getting any bigger -- so that a major downturn ( if another comes now ) is manageable -- we all hope!

I would guess that within a few months we will see significant effects of reduced earnings on the US markets.

Also, did you notice that the differential between short and long term rates has dropped significantly? ( down to 50% of the June 97 difference, is my graphs are correct ) . This will cut into earnings of US banking stocks.

The US economy will show some weakening signs soon, and then AG will have to loosen the financial floodgates some more. I suspect that will drive our gold rally, if it hasn't already started by then.

Your words grace the "airways" Glad to have you back! Now we have to find out what happened to Donald. He posted to me on the 19th

Gold's upturn may finally come from the bottoming of the weak currencies world-wide. As their currencies recover, and their local gold price peaks and starts to retreat, those countries will stop selling their physical gold. That includes most of Asia, South America, and Australia. Also, those countries will attract renewed investment from around the world. This will finally tip the scales for gold.

I think the Asian Flu will ultimately ( mildly ) infect the US dollar. After all, the buck has to stop somewhere, doesn't it? Japan will start it by selling US dollars to pay for all those aid packages, and at a time when their currency is weak -- lucky them! Cash will flow into the weakened countries, into Europe ahead of EMU, into precious metals ( of course ) , and out of falling US bonds and stocks. The US Dollar Index, which just completed a three-year run from 80 cents to 1.02, will soon be at 90 cents ( or lower ) . As the dollar falls, the US dollar value of gold will naturally rise by 5% to 10% ( or more ) . That should be enough to start a decent rally.

And what about Europe? Will they re-invest in those weakened countries? Sure! Will they sell their gold? Heck, no!

The European core currencies are benefitting from the flight to quality, for now. If I were in London or Bonn or Zurich, and I was concerned that my currency was going to peak, I might be tempted to move my money to emerging markets. I'd also be tempted to buy gold on a currency play. I'd avoid the expensive US markets and the US dollar.

As to the European CB's selling gold, I think it's more likely they'll be buying gold and selling US dollars. They want the Euro to be a strong currency, so they'll back it with lots of gold to compete more effectively with the US dollar. Furthermore, they wouldn't mind seeing the US dollar weaken to encourage the rest of the world to hold Euros. Sure, the Swiss will sell some of their gold -- they had more than anyone else to begin with. Sure, the gold lease book is huge, but the leases and short sales are already done. ( All the news currently driving the gold market is old news. ) Maybe they're just trying to scare the price down one last time. After all, they leased their gold rather than selling it. Maybe they knew they'd need it back eventually. Maybe they realized that all the short-selling was eventually going to cause a stampede of buy orders. Maybe they can just sit back for the next couple of years, collecting their loan repayments in ever-higher-priced gold.

Question: How many global stores-of-wealth do we need? The US Dollar has been at center-stage for a while now. We will start to use the Euro soon. Will some of us want to use the Yen or the Yuan or gold instead? Of course. Perhaps it was the threat of new competition that prompted the Fed to recently suggest that gold be removed from the list of candidates? Perhaps the Fed was worried about what would happen if the world were awash with unwanted dollars...

Here is a listing of some of the most popular symbols and abbreviations:

AAMOF As A Matter Of Fact

ADN Any Day Now

AFK Away From Keyboard

ASAP As Soon As Possible

BAC By Any Chance

BAK Back At Keyboard

BBIAF Be back in a few ( an IRC term )

BBS Be back soon / shortly

BRB Be Right Back

BTW By The Way

CU L8R See You Later

CYA See Ya

EOT End of transmission

FAQ Frequently asked questions or a document that answers frequently asked questions

FTP File transfer protocol

FWIW For whatever it's worth

GIGO Garbage In Garbage Out

GMTA Great Minds Think Alike

GOL Groaning out loud

GTRM Going To Read Mail

GR8 Great

Thank you for your post on the key dates in Asia's financial crisis.

Now would you trust a blundering bunch of scientists and " experts "? t http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-11/21/089l-112197-idx.html

From EB to D.A. -
"Oh yeah....
Since I can't post tell D.A. that I will bet him a shiny little tenth oz
eagle that gold at 299 before 308. That is halfway point right now.
This damn password stuff is making me crazy.
thanks ;- ) "
My apologises if EB is back already as I haven't caught up on last 12 hours reading yet. - Mooney

Here is a listing of some of the most popular symbols and abbreviations:

AAMOF As A Matter Of Fact

ADN Any Day Now

AFK Away From Keyboard

ASAP As Soon As Possible

BAC By Any Chance

BAK Back At Keyboard

BBIAF Be back in a few ( an IRC term )

BBS Be back soon / shortly

BRB Be Right Back

BTW By The Way

CU L8R See You Later

CYA See Ya

EOT End of transmission

FAQ Frequently asked questions or a document that answers frequently asked questions

FTP File transfer protocol

FWIW For whatever it's worth

GIGO Garbage In Garbage Out

GMTA Great Minds Think Alike

GOL Groaning out loud

GTRM Going To Read Mail

GR8 Great

Mooney:

Tell the man he's done. London PM fix rules if thats ok.

password test- can you believe au and silver are UP, DAMN!

Tally Ho

http://www.conbev.com/sparklin.htm

For the Y2K freaks-- The following might be of
interest-- Here is a report from Congressman Jim
Leach's hearings on the "Millennium Bug"
http://www.house.gov/banking/11497lea.htm IMHO this
effectively refutes LGB's contention that Y2K will
not be a major problem. More URLs to follow which
further make the point.

Friday November 21, 8:38 am Eastern Time

Wall Street to open higher, eyes double-witching

By Huw Jones

NEW YORK, Nov 21 ( Reuters ) - Wall Street stocks look set to open higher Friday and continue their comeback from an October correction, but today's ride may be bumpier due to the expiration of index futures and options, analysts said.

``I think we are going to have a strong opening, but it will be interesting to see if we can hold it through the day. Double-witching is a potential problem,'' said Thom Brown, managing director of Rutherford Brown and Catherwood.

S&P stock futures were up 5.50 points at 968.50, indicating an intial gain of 30 to 50 points in the Dow industrials, Brown said.

Alan Ackerman, market strategist at Fahnestock & Co, said, ``The mood of the market is upbeat. It's not just that there is some easing of the Southeast Asian pressures, but the fact that interest rates are low.''

The long bond was off 8/32 to yield 6.08 percent.

No major economic data are due today.

Concerns about Southeast Asia's financial problems were eased further overnight when South Korea said it was talking with the International Monetary Fund about standby loans.

In Japan, five of the top eight banks said they expect to post huge losses in the current business year to clean up bad loans and improve asset quality.

Investors had been selling bank stocks because they were worried about banks' stability.

Japan's Nikkei stock index closed up 413.09 points at 16,721.58 as a rebound continued amid steadier sentiment.

Nevertheless, Asia's problems are not over yet, and only a tenuous deal has been struck in the Iraq-UN standoff, said Brown. ``It's tough to convince people the market still has risk,'' he said.

The Dow has more than recouped its 554-point plunge of October 27, and without fully testing the lows.

European bourses advanced solidly overnight.

The FTSE100 index gained 1.20 percent or 57.7 points to 4966.10. Germany's DAX was up 1.12 percent or 43.75 points at 3959.69. France's CAC index advanced 1.84 percent or 51.80 points to 2872.99.

In Tokyo, the dollar edged up against the yen, but activity was slow ahead of a long Japanese holiday weekend. The dollar was trading at 126.06/11 yen.

In Europe the dollar was trading at 1.7500/07 marks.

The Wall Street Journal, in its Heard on the Street column, said Sony Corp ( NYSE:SNE - news; 6758.T ) is once again one of Japan's most admired corporations, having staged an impressive recovery from its stagnation in the mid-1990s.

The New York Times, in its Market Place column, said the board of Dow Jones & Co Inc ( NYSE:DJ - news ) met Thursday and voted to put the company's troubled financial information divison, Dow Jones Markets, up for sale.

HTH Hope This Helps HTTP Hypertext transfer protocol; the Internet utility which enables the World Wide Web to link multiple resources together IAIYH "It's all in your head" IMHO In My Humble Opinion IRC Internet Relay Chat. IRL In Real Life LOL Laugh ( ing ) Out Loud LRF Little Red Flag LTNS Long Time No See MorF Male or female MYOB Mind Your Own Business ROTFL Rolling On The Floor Laughing ROTFLOL Rolling on the Floor Laughing Out Loud ROTFLAICGU Rolling On The Floor Laughing And I Can't Get UP ROTFLMAO Rolling On The Floor Laughing My 'Anatomy' OFF ROFLWTIME Rolling On Floor With Tears in My Eyes TTFN Ta-Ta For Now! TTYL Talk to you later WB Welcome Back WTG Way To Go! :-v talking puppet head : ) smile :D smile/laughing/big grin ; ) wink :x my lips are sealed :p sticking out tongue : ( frown :' ( crying @~ rose @@@: ) marge simpson #: ( bad hair day ~''',,"",,"c crocodile =|: ) } Uncle Sam %*@:- ( hung over %-6 brain-dead ( -: left handed ( 8-o mr. bill! *:o ) Bozo the

Bozo the clown /:-| Mr. Spock 8- ) excited/wearing glasses 8:- ) glasses on forehead :, ( crying :-$ mouth wired shut :-% banker/Snidely Whiplash :-& tongue tied :-* eating something bitter/sour :-9 licking lips :-/ skeptical :-0 orator/yelling :-1 bland face :-7 wry statement :-? smoke 'um peace pipe ( Hi Cherokee! ) :-@ screaming :-[ really bummed :-S incoherent/bizarre statement :-x lips are sealed :-` spitting out chewing tobacco :-t cross ;- ) wink @= nuclear war $- ) opportunity

Here is a URL of the BIS for LGB. Excellent index and articles. Click on the most recent story concerning Y2K. Any thoughts? http://www.bis.org/press/index.htm

Rothschilds, Soros & RJ CANNOT BE WRONG

We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the Poor Mans Gold -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year Goldbugs Weekly Comment.

In Cormiers report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! -posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Lets capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%
Silver Standard ( SSO ) ...............UP 57%
International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%
First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) ..........UP 86%
United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%
Clifton Mining ( CFB ) ................Down 4%

Thats an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! - the current daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug613.html

Does anyone out there have a technical analysis to offer re silver or silver stocks. Some of the silver stocks look ready to break out, but the action the last few days has been pretty quiet.

Just trying to help out with Donald away. Hope he is all right. Anyone know why he's not around?

I work with a number of large non-banking firms on this problem. While it is serious, its not the end of the world by any means. It will cause a slowdown in business investment and productivity for the next couple of years, but it wont cause a banking system meltdown.

Consultants all over the world have a big incentive to put the fear of God in comapnies to get them to cough up big bucks to fix this problem..... Hey its just a matter of changing a 2 byte field to a 4 byte field.... A few suckers will pay up but most realize that the problem is small and fixable with a sufficient amount of resources.

JTF
Thankyou, its good to be online again, who knows for how long though.
Now my email has gone down.

We need a stong day of internals to get the US markets up and running.
A sell-off this afternoon or Monday will not be good.

How long before the IMF has to raise more cash? Sell gold?
Gold has been travelling inverse to equities for awhile.
Now like bonds, it seems to have become un-coupled.
Its next moves, in relation to the Dow could be telling.

SUDDENLY, RUSSIA'S BOOMING DEBT MARKET QUIETS DOWN
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/nov1997/nf71119a.htm

NEW YORK: In Thursday trading, the Nikkei 225 index rebounded 466.03 points ( +2.94% ) to close at 16,308.49. On Wednesday, the index had plunged 884.11 points ( -5.29% ) after Prime Minister Hashimoto had claimed that he was "misinterpreted" concerning his "consideration" of using public funds to shore up the banking system. Today's rise was the product of another change of mind by the mercurial Hashimoto. The PM is now willing to have the LDP re-consider the use of public funds. It was June 23, 1997 when he managed to roil the U.S. markets by saying that Japan might just sell U.S. Treasuries and buy gold. The DJIA dropped 2.5% that day, but rebounded the next day after he claimed he was misinterpreted. The Nikkei 225 appears to be in the process of establishing some sort of a bottom. Resistance is 17,000, there are two layers of support: 15,800, and then the 15,083 area. Until the LDP puts forth a coherent, rational plan to address the banks and the economy, this market is not going above 17,000.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnasia.htm


Dow daily 29-87-97
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Dowdy.gif

Dow weekly 29-87-97
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Dowwk.gif

Dow monthly 29-87-97
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Dowmth.gif

Gold 304.50 +1.30
Silver 5.44 +0.18
Tally Ho!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug613.html

Have no idea. Been wondering where he is myself.

Purdue University and Y2K. http://chronicle.com/data/articles.dir/art-44.dir/issue-13.dir/13a02101.htm

"South Korea going bankrupt and begging on its knees for IMF funds is a bullish sign for the Stock Market" HaHaHa

Friday November 21, 9:00 am Eastern Time

U.S. stocks to open firmer, S.Korea IMF move eyed

NEW YORK, Nov 21 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stocks were set to open higher on Friday as worries eased over South Korea, the latest victim of the region's financial turmoil which has roiled global stock markets.

South Korea said it was asking the International Monetary Fund for about $20 billion to overcome its financial crisis.

In the past, asking the IMF for help was seen as a negative, but the market now views it as a positive sign, said Robert Froehlich, chief investment strategist at Kemper Funds.

``That's why you will see a real positive opening ( in U.S. stocks ) ,'' Froehlich added.

S&P stock futures were up 4.60 points at 967.50.

The long bond was off 7/32 to yield 6.08 percent.

Analysts said trading today may be a little choppy because of double-witching, the expiration of stock index futures and options.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 10:42
 ( Gold.Rally.Schmold.Rally.Plunge.Team.Party. ) ID#2082:
The Bears await this 'new' rally with open arms. It is ONLY a
chance to drive it to the dirt once again. It still must slip
under 300[.]

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 01:51
EB ( Why Bart? ) ID#22956:

[G]old - Friday is approaching........like a Freight
Train.......choo, choo!! chuga, chuga, chuga.......

Gold is now the last laggard in the PM group. Platinum, Paladium and Silver have all recovered most of their recent loses, and the only thing holding Gold back are the actions threatened by the CB's.
I say to them put up, or shut up, NOW.

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971121/international/stories/korea_4.html

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971121/politics/stories/russia_3.html

Diner's Club International presents The American Historic Society GOLDEN HOLIDAYS- Enjoy the Gift of Gold...Extended monthly payments...Interest Free! $2.50 Liberty=$300.00; $5 Liberty=$300.00; $10 Liberty=$500.00; $20 Liberty=$1,000.00; $2.50 Indian=$300.00; $5 Indian=$400.00; $10 Indian =$800.00; $20 St Gaudens=$1,000.00; Angel=$200.00; .500 Fine Gold Indian Fanam ( 7 mm diameter ) =$40.00; $US1 Gold=$400.00; $US3 Gold=$1,300.00; Edward VII Sovereign=$240.00; George V Sovereign=$220.00; Elizabeth II Sovereign=$200.00; 5 Ruble ( Nicholas II ) =$150.00 They're probably all jewelry grade, except for the Elizabeth II coins ( maybe worth $US 80 )

Those who naively believe they can sit & wait to "catch" GOLD'S bottom will be very dissappointed - as GOLD will inevitably and eventually RISE SUDDENLY as SILVER is today.

Spud- Thanks for the Public Service Announcement {:-D}
Carl- I thought you were Donald. Thanks for stepping in!

Saturday, November 22, 1997 Sydney Morning Herald

Shattered Korea to ask for $116bn

By RUSSELL SKELTON and JOHN LARKIN

South Korea, Asia's second-biggest economy after Japan and Australia's

second-largest export market, will ask the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) for a bail-out estimated at up to $116 billion in a desperate bid to revive its battered financial system.

The embattled President Kim Young-sam is expected to confirm the move in a broadcast to the nation today.

He told an emergency meeting of finance officials yesterday to prepare the nation for "bone-carving pains" from reforms imposed by the IMF.

Analysts in Seoul and Tokyo forecast that South Korea's problems would deepen Asia's economic crisis, cut Australian exports and cause export problems for the United States and Japan. It may also cause serious problems for some of Europe's banks.

The impact on economic growth for Australia, which will contribute to the

bail-out,would be substantial becauseof South Korea's importanceas an export market.

Mr Peter Kin, a senior analyst with James Capel in Seoul, said Korea's top conglomerates - including the giant steel-maker POSCO - were planning to cut imports of Australian resources as they abandon expansion plans.

The South Korean crisis will also hit the tourist trade with Australia and dampen the education export market, which saw about 10,000 Koreans enrol in Australian institutions last year. Beef exports to South Korea, the second-largest market outside Japan, are also expected to suffer.

Dr Ken Courtis, an Asia analyst from Deutsche Bank Group Asia Pacific in Tokyo, warned that the situation in South Korea would have wide implications and would disrupt the global economy as the country's international debt was close to $200 billion.

South Korea's was not a small economy like Thailand's, but the 11th-largest in the world with big interests in Japan, the US and other Asian economies.

"This is a country that raises huge economic, financial and strategic questions as it moves into the crisis," Dr Courtis said, forecasting that South Korea could end up requiring close to $US80 billion ( $A116 billion ) .

The major concern is just how the Korean crisis will impact on the US and Japan, the world's largest economies.

Dr Courtis said: "Look over the next few months for a deterioration in the US trade deficit, with the deficit climbing next year to $US250 billion."

Asian currencies strengthened slightly after the news that South Korea would seek aid from the IMF, but this is likely to be temporary.

A dealer with a major European bank said: "I believe today's rebound in most currencies is going to be temporary simply because the whole region is still in pretty bad shape."

Last night there was still confusion over the timingand details of the IMF bail-out package.

Although South Korean Treasury officials have been in contact with the IMF for days, the Government has been attempting to stall the bail-out because of the APEC summit and presidential elections due on December 18.

Reminiscent of my youth. After I left the horses and cows behind, I had an occasional hankerin' fer the smell of the corral.
I have seemed to manage without it for lo these 45 years.
Thoughts of it do recur, but I can shake them off. The same for the thought of the offal ( pun ) posts to which you refer.
I believe the site can muddle through without them. ( :+^}[

Vronsky - Thanks for the Silver alert. Just added to my gold position. To oearly to know we have a gold rally, but silver just doesn't go down! My small investment in silver stocks ( PAASF ) is doing very well.

It won't be long before the US economy weakens, and AG will have to lower interest rates -- once he is sure he has stopped the last vestiges of the general stock market bull.

Then we will have a nice gold bull, if it hasn't already started!

Indonesia's Soharto Son gets new bank to make up for bankrupt one.
You've got to keep the kids occupied eh?
This has to be the article of the week. Unbelievable!
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world1.html

You stated that "it's just a matter of changing a 2-byte field to a 4-byte field."

Yes, that's the first simple step, IF you have the source code.
Then, you must find and fix every occurrence of every date field.
Then, you must, in some cases, duplicate the production hardware environment for parallel testing.
Then, you must run parallel tests against the production systems.
Then, you must fix the bugs found in parallel testing and repeat the tests.
Then, you must test every interface to make sure all interdependent systems are compliant.
Then, you have to find and non-compliant imbedded chips.
.
.
.

Test test

With the staggering woes that have beset the Asian Tigers as
of late we may well need to expect a whole series of bailouts
for the Pacific economies akin to the 1980s bailout wave. And
the Fed sits poised to monetize new loans as needed. So there
is an endless stream of new debt that the Fed will be
monetizing into the foreseeable future on a grand scale.

All the while the central banks are shedding large portions of gold reserves in their on-going war on gold they are simultaneously weakening their own positions in terms of fungible, highly liquid assets.

A collapse in the stock markets and a run on bank deposits due to a global financial crisis could deal them a severe blow.

An excellent DETAILED review of Central Bank folly may be seen at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/voss112097.html

Steve-Perth: Talk about inflation -- about 24 hours ago S Korea wanted 20 billion, then 80 billion. Now they want 120 billion! What will it be tomorrow? The IMF probably hasn't responded to the first request.

Perhaps the smart money is heading for the exits, and that is why Silver is taking off. If the IMF basically admits that it does not have the money to bail out S Korea, confidence in our current financial system will dwindle. Especially after if slapped Japan's wrists when they suggested setting up a S Korea fund.

Sound much worse than the Japan situation, doesn't it? Looks like Japan is going to have a very cheap competitior very soon, assuming S Korea is still functional.

I still laugh that people around the world could be just salivating at the thought of having to fix a problem they created. Bankers create money out of thin air. Now it seems that computer programmers can play the same game.

Pay me or watch your empire collapse.

I just love it.

Check out the put/calls ratio.
Seems like there is a few bears left afterall.
http://www.marketgauge.com/charts/COPT1.htm

Love that Coopers ( :o}}}}}

What about an article," Will the People Outlaw the Central Banks?" or "No Need for Government, Privatization Solves Government Debt Crisis."

I can dream can't I?

Can they tax that yet?

ROFLMAO @ your sheer brilliance!. How did you ever dream up all the shining acronyms?? ( :+}[

Friday November 21, 10:04 am Eastern Time

Cambior , Metallica in Mexico venture

MONTREAL, Nov 21 ( Reuters ) - Cambior Inc [AMEX:CBJ - news] said on Friday that it had agreed with Metallica Resources Inc [Nasdaq:METLF - news] to jointly develop Metallica's 100-percent owned Cerro San Pedro project in San Luis Potosi, Mexico.

Cambior said it will become the project manager and for a US$20 million investment will receive the right to acquire a 50 percent stake in Metallica's wholly owned Mexican subsidiary Minera San Xavier SA de CV, which effectively owns the project.

Cambior said it will also provide loan facilities for up to US$60 million, provide gold and/or silver hedging facilities up to 150,000 ounces of gold and will subscribe to two million shares of Metallica.

The Montreal-based miner said it will subscribe to one million of Metallica's shares at a price of C$2.60 a share in cash and swap its own shares for the other one million shares at the market price over 10 days from November 4, 1997 to November 17, 1997.

Cambior said the boards of directors for both companies had approved the deal, but that it was subject to regulatory approval.

The deal was expected to close on or around December 8, 1997, but no later than December 29, 1997.

Additionally, just expanding the date fields in the databases to 4 bytes is not always an easy task. Certain kinds of DMS requires the data to unloaded then reloaded to expand a field. If the system is 20+ years old, the data may reside in old formats such as sequential or indexed sequential files which will pose other unique problems, and programmers for these systems may already be senile.

Sharefin: The OEX Put/Call Ratio indicates an extremely BULLISH sentiment. The 1-day reading is 0.09 ( 9 puts were purchased for each 100 calls ) . Anything below 0.8 indicates too much bullishness ( which is considered bearish ) , anything over 1.55 is too pessimistic ( wich is bullish. ) The 5-day reading is 0.78, with the lines at 0.85 and 1.40

testing...testing...

Bart...

Since the rising tide of Silver seems to be dragging all upwards, may I commend you on your choice of instituting the passwords.

Obviously, with the control now given back to the people instead of the idiots and "controllers", control of the site, by the forces opposed to the rising metals, has been eliminated. If there ever was any skuldugery on behalf of the "powers" that wanted the stuff to stay down, it now has been eliminated and may I say, "It's about time!"

Thanks again.

Hey...watch it...senile stuff...grinthing ... I wrote zillions of those programs back in the 60's and 70's WITHOUT A THOUGHT ABOUT Y2K .. Hate to think about it now ... and all those programs that need to be fixed or junked... And last I heard most of them are still running....tick/tock

Up and functioning perfectly.

Dave, let me comment on this. I work in this field, and any CEO or Company that beleives this is a simple task will be in grave trouble.
Some systems will take 6 months to test alone!
Let me just say that there are lawyers training right now in Y2K litigation,
and any company which is not fully Y2K ready, or impacts other companies by passing bad data will be paying big bucks in lawsuits.
Some experts have estimated that Y2K lawsuits in the US could end up being higher than the cost of all Y2K conversions, up to $1 TRILLION US. This is serious business!

Asia-Pacific summit talks hit by currency worries


Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press



VANCOUVER, British Columbia ( November 21, 1997 09:47 a.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) -- President Clinton and the other 17 leaders of Pacific Rim countries will have an unwelcome guest at their annual fall reunion: a full-blown currency crisis that has jolted financial markets around the world and dealt a serious blow to the Asian miracle economies.

The economic tsunami, which last month triggered the biggest one-day point loss in Wall Street history, essentially has hijacked this year's Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.

Tolerant1: Do you think FSR should hold support here? I've been following it's price but don't know fundamentals. What are their proven and probable reserves, costs of production, and future exploration possibilities? Does it have good management?

November 21, 1997

APEC faces pressure to act as Asia crisis worsens

VANCOUVER, ( Reuters ) - Pacific Rim countries came under growing pressure Friday to take swift action in defense of Asia's battered economies, with South Korea the latest victim of the region's financial turmoil.

After the South Korean currency fell to a record low, the Seoul government at first denied a report it would seek a bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) then confirmed it was discussing such a package.

South Korea's Finance Minister Lim Chang-yuel said Friday the government will decide whether to ask for an IMF bailout package within three days.

The spreading stock market and currency malaise in Asia has derailed the meeting's original agenda of trade liberalization.Rattled investors are now looking to APEC to contain the panic, although some analysts believe the group can offer little more than soothing rhetoric.

"If APEC doesn't address this crisis, they will have a credibility problem," said Charles Morrison, an APEC specialist at the East-West Center in Honolulu.

"For the leaders to get together and look weak, that would not send a reassuring signal."

APEC leaders will probably also urge all countries to redouble efforts to meet a December 12 deadline for a global trade agreement to open world markets in banking, insurance and securities.

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/APEC.html

Thanks for reposting some of my jewels...I had no idea that I was so funny, har, har. I guess the bears can't 'own' ALL Fridays. I think this current rally is due to silvers' performance. It will be short lived...oh yes it will. It is actually good to see gold rally here because the risk/reward ratio was not very appealing to me. I trust this little rally will make it much more TASTY!! YUM, YUM!!! ;- )

D.A. - I could not post last night so I mailed the Moonster. ( thanks moon for the relay! ) . But he bedded down early and could not post it. Hey Mooney*, did you get all your beauty rest ;- ) ? Anyway, I did tell him to pass on the wager. I have some cute little Eagles that I play tiddly-winks with. And I need some more for my collection. Let's have fun with a wager. Make me an offer and I will counter...uh huh. Yu D.A. Man!!

away...to board the Train...choo! choo!.....chuga.....chuga.....chuga....

ridingthetrain

November 21, 1997
Canadian bonds open softer for second straight day

TORONTO, Nov 21 ( Reuters ) - Canadian bonds opened lower on Friday for the second day in a row under pressure from profit-taking sellers across the yield curve and in anticipation of a rush of bond auctions next week.

Fixed income analysts said the bond market is taking a breather ahead of next week's two and five year auctions in the U.S., a five-year auction in Canada and a large T-bill auction in Canada.

"There is a lot of supply coming down the pipe and I think everyone is positioning for that," said Michael Gregory, economist and fixed income strategist at Lehman Brothers.

Canada's 30-year benchmark bond C$0.68 to C$128.10 to yield 5.965 percent for a spread of 14 basis points below the U.S. 30-year benchmark, which was down 18/32 to 100.10/32 for a yield 6.10 percent. The spread between the two bonds widened from 13 basis points at Thursday's close.

Across the rest of the Canadian yield curve the 10-year benchmark was down C$0.42 to C$112.60 to yield 5.529 percent, while the two-year benchmark fell C$0.03 to C$100.48 to yield 4.466 percent.

In the short end of the curve analysts said the Bank of Canada is not expected to raise rates in the next week.Economists said the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until volatility in the market due to the effects of the Asian financial crisis settle down before it feels comfortable in raising short-term Canadian interest rates.

Market internals very weak.
Nasdaq being sold off.

Silver 60min chart -
Bullish spikes indicate further highs to come.
Pullbacks to offer entry points.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Sil27.gif

Gold daily chart -
A break above the upper trendline would be considered bullish.
A break below the support line - continuation of the current trend.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Gld2500.gif


Korondy
The one day ratio has gone off the chart.
Highest reading in six months.
High optimism ( bearish )
Every market player has dumped all his puts and bought calls.
Exceedingly bearish.
IMHO

Steve - Perth. Thanks for your post of 10:09 on the new bank for the president's son. What goes on behind the scene is truly amazing!

THE DINES LETTER

The South Korean currency, the won, has fallen sharply as the long-awaited economic stabilisation package failed to restore investors' confidence in the country's economy.

The currency lost 10% of its value against the dollar a day after the government announced the package of measures aimed at boosting financial markets.

The record fall occurred within minutes of the markets opening.

It has stoked fears that South Korea could be heading for a financial crisis that would dwarf the turmoil in the South East Asian markets.

Internationally acclaimed market analyst, James Dines, shares his insights and foresights with us about current currency crisis.

Asia is awash in hammered & cascading currencies. The deluge of devaluations in South East Asia is spilling over into other countries on the opposite side of the globe -- and will wreak havoc in world stock markets. The Currency Contagion continues unabated...
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines1110.html

I take it you are Nick the Aussie. Correct? Why the change of handle and why Sharefin? And could you post one of your five minute gold charts for us poor-folks?? thanks Fin...

away

obliged

Check Vronsky post earlier, it has a link to the Goldbug at gold-eagle. You will all sorts of info on silver stocks and FSR.

Thank you for posting the SI7Z and GC7Z charts. BTW, we are in fill agreement re: sentiment. I must have misread your previous post.

When do you start watching SI8G and GC8G ( Feb instead of Dec series? )

November 21, 1997
Seoul asks IMF for up to $20 billion in loans

SEOUL, South Korea ( Reuters ) - South Korea on Friday sought a loan of about $20 billion from the International Monetary Fund to overcome its deepening financial crisis and forecast a painful period of restructuring for one of Asia's vaunted "Tiger" economies.

"We accepted the advice from the IMF and our friendly nations and we decided to ask for the IMF loans," Finance Minister Lim Chang-yuel told a news conference.

Lim, who took over as finance minister on Wednesday after the abrupt resignation of his predecessor, said conditions of the assistance, including the size and terms of the loan, would be determined by the IMF and the participating countries. An IMF team will arrive next week to discuss the details.

However, analysts said $20 billion will not be enough to ease the country's financial crisis and said the country would probably need funds to the tune of $70 billion."If this is the extent of the IMF package, then it is clearly not enough to deal with the situation," said Carlos Daurigniac, emerging markets analyst at Credit Agricole Indosuez. "This will barely cover them to the end of the year and the risk of further large bankruptcies remains."

Analysts had been talking about a much larger package, estimating IMF-led assistance of between $50 billion and $75 billion. Some reports had speculated the total could be as much as $100 billion."It's largely going to be a function of how much the IMF thinks they need to throw at the problem to convince everybody it's OK," said Paul Rawkins, associate director, sovereign ratings, at European credit rating company IBCA.

The overall package would have to be more than $40 billion, he said. "I think we can get the loans three or four weeks after we reach the agreement," said Lim, who once served as an IMF executive director. But he acknowledged there would be pain to go with the IMF gains.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/KOREA-IMF.html

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-11/21/081l-112197-idx.html

vronsky,tolerant1, & all
Interesting article here - appears that @ some point the CBs are going to own the Mines.
I wonder what the interest rate is on these loans and is it a variable rate based on the price of Gold. And do they take over in default, or is this take over happening now? Has Gold been held down forcing the Mines to hurt and as a result beg the CBs for funding, as is the rest of the World.

Friday November 21, 9:16 am Eastern Time

Company Press Release

TVX Gold Inc. Announces Closing of US$180 Million Senior Revolving Credit Facility

TORONTO-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Nov. 21, 1997--TVX Gold Inc. ( TSE:TVX. - news; ME:TVX. - news; NYSE:TVX - news ) TVX Gold Inc.
announced today that it has successfully completed a US$180 million Senior Revolving Credit Facility with a group of major International financial institutions. The syndicate was led by The Chase Manhattan Bank of Canada, acting as Administrative Agent for the Facility, with Royal Bank of Canada [NYSE:RY - news] and Barclays Bank PLC acting as Syndication Agent and Documentation Agent respectively. In addition, the banking syndicate includes BT Bank of Canada, Credit Lyonnais Canada, Deutsche Bank Canada, N.M. Rothschild & Sons Ltd., The Toronto Dominion Bank, Paribas Bank of Canada and Republic National Bank of New York
( Canada ) .

The Facility has been structured as a 4 year, senior corporate revolving credit facility. TVX Gold has the option of drawing down advances in U.S. dollars, Canadian dollars, gold and silver under the terms of the Facility.

The Facility, the first syndicated revolving credit facility for TVX Gold, will be used for general corporate purposes, including project development.

This facility replaces the US$70 million facility with Toronto Dominion Bank which would have expired in March 1998.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/971121/tvx_gold_1.html

What a pleasant surprise... log on and find it WAY WAY up! UmmHmm, Gold, Bah humbug, Silver YES!

Eldorado - Wasn't it you that 2-days ago predicted that silver had a couple more days of potential movement to the upside? Great call! How did you do this?

As for your failed predicitions being jewels ... cough ... only the kind the anglos handed out to the red indians. I know it's unnecessary, but I just wanted to remind you that you were merely 100% wrong about the Friday price of gold.

Spud Master away! ... to great golden glory!
( music score from Indiana Jones & Raiders of the Lost Ark )

Carl, are you the Carl from up north, if so -
GO BUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If nothing else, I hope it will be a good game.
Later.

Dave you missed my point....
Everything you say is true, but thats not the point. All the steps you laid out are very doable between now and Dec 31, 1999. Thats 2 years away.

Secondly, many firms will decide that repaving old cow paths is not worth the effort and will install all new systems. One of the reasons why companies like SAP are doing such a land office business right now. As a result, most firms will end up with better systems at the end of the day.

At any rate, it is not the kind of problem that is going to crater the banking and financial systems of the world.

Gold & Silver ( TSE )
http://canoe.quote.com/fq/canoe/industrygroup?group=tse_gold

THANKS BART!!!!

Absolutely NOTHING in the local Japanese paper here in Okinawa about any financial problems in Japan. Maybe I should send ORACLE'S latest to the editor!!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html

Like all the others, this one is a must read. Thanks Oracle.

Rothschilds, Soros & RJ CANNOT BE WRONG

We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the Poor Mans Gold -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year Goldbugs Weekly Comment.

In Cormiers report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! -posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Lets capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%
Silver Standard ( SSO ) ...............UP 57%
International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%
First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) ..........UP 86%
United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%
Clifton Mining ( CFB ) ................Down 4%

Thats an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! - the current daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug613.html

Systems adapt to their environments. Sudden changes in the environment may threaten the viability of the systems that have so adapted themselves as to be, in effect, dependent on the stability of that environment. That is why it has been guessed that after a nuclear winter the world would be populated with cockroaches and not people. ( Since cockroaches are much more adaptable than people. )

When a financial or economic system becomes so entirely adapted to its environment that it is symbiotic ( very effecient indeed ) then that system will fail when the environment changes. We heard how "effecient" and "strong" the asian tigers were just at the beginning of the year. In fact Mutual Fund companies were beginning to trumpet overseas markets as the next great opportunity for massive profits ( in Jan/Feb '97 ) .

This was predicated on the current stability of exchange rates in the area. How do we know this? Because it was the exchange rate devaluations which triggered the withdrawl from equities markets which percipitated a drop in real estate which caused banks ( which had taken these rates, share valuations and real estate prices as presumably stable ) to become insolvent.

Doubt about the political and economic stability of one small country ( Thailand ) has triggered a sudden change in the financial environment of the entire world. Now the question is: " Which systems ( so effecient and strong in the old order ) will fail in this new environment? "

The game you are now engaged in is "Guess which systems you are dependent on in preserving and advancing your assets. You can move your pieces if things don't move to fast. There are no givens regarding profitability, quality or safety." Your turn ...

What would happen as the younger central bankers might be getting called on the carpet by the older ones. Veneros has referred to the "mad-dog selling" of gold by some central bankers.

Could it be that the report that he is issuing is hitting home? Ah, but alas the powerful Alan Greenspan at seventy some odd years of age is one who stated publicly that he did not believe in the new paradigm.

I wonder what with all the bailouts world wide if feathers are ruffled in the ranks of the bankers. Politicians vs bankers, step right this way, you can watch it on HBO pay-per-view.

EB
Good volumes.
Last ride down coming up?
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Gld5min.gif

Sort of like sharkfin without the water.
My nick name ( no pun intended ) at sea used to be
"Round and Round".
Like a shark, but thats a long story.

http://www.foxnews.com/search/cgi-bin/search.cgi?query=gold&days=0&wires=0?twire=0

I didn't make 'em up. I'm just a humble reporter. BTW:

Gold 305.50 +2.30 @11:34

Silver 5.44 +0.18 Not too shabby!

Since the most recent low in SIZ7 on October 27 and during the recent rise to 5.22 yesterday, not much has happened in silver stocks except for SSC.
Stock...Oct 27...Nov 20
SSC.... .875....1.00.....+14.3%
SSO.... 5.15....5.35.....+ 3.9%
ASM.... 2.36....2.40.....+ 1.7%
FSR.... 1.50....1.20.....-20.0%

SIZ7... 4.79....5.22.....+14.3%

This morning SIZ7 broke through resistance at 5.30 to fo to 5.46 then down a bit and now back to 5.43. At 7.45am pst Vancouver ASM and FSR doing nothing, SSO up 7.5% and SSC up about 6% with a break-out. Does anyone have any ideas as to where from here?

EB:

My good man, you were filled at 9:09 AM. It would sadden me greatly to find that I had an out trade.

If you would like to add on to your current position I would be most accomodating. Any number of your tiddly winks at spot + or - $20. London PM fix rules the trade.

I await your reply. Ever so humbly, D.A.

As much as I respect Spudmaster, I must say I enjoy your pearls. Nobody can be right 100% of the time, not even someone of your high calibre.

Spud - The traders haven't even gone to lunch yet and you are talking as if the markets have closed and gone home for the weekend...

remembering a late great...."it ain't over 'till it's over"

Choo! Choo! Chuga, Chuga, Chuga...All aboard!!

away...to make the train

crazy

My points to them exactly Karlito! Save your breath though, Gloom and Doomers love Y2K, it's one of the few hopes they have for our markets to collapse! DaveinCO seems to think that you have to be a programmer/expert in order to have an opinion as to whether we have the technical proficiency to resolve such a "huge" ( not! ) technical problem.

Yeah, like we can put men on the Moon but can't handle a change in year eh?? My wife runs a small home based business, we proces charge cards, and guess what? The card network/banking folks have ALREADY resolved the issues and had us test it for cards with expirations beyond 1999. Crash from Y2K? I don't THINK SO!!!

Thanks for the charts! BTW, have you heard from Nick ( Cairns ) lately?

Sharefin - thanks for info on silver.If you are Nick ( Aussie ) how come your handle isn't sharkfin? Best of Luck.

http://www.yourdon.com

An excerpt from their site.

And in the final analysis, that's the approach we have attempted to take in this book. We don't know what's going to happen when the clock strikes midnight on December 31, 1999; nobody else does, either. Some have suggested to us that by making the decision to write a book, we created an obligation for ourselves to find out, so that we could state the future with certainty. Instead, we've tried to describe plausible scenarios, allow you to evaluate the likelihood of their occurrence, and then offer some suggestions for responding to those scenarios. We don't have the "answer" to the Y2000 problem, and given the complexity of the problem, we think it's pretentious for anyone to suggest that he or she does. Instead of presenting answers, we've focused on raising what we think are responsible questions that you should be asking yourselves.

Ultimately, what we think, and what other people do or don't do, is not your problem. What you do is the real issue -- in the final analysis, you're responsible for your own actions and for the health and happiness of your family and loved ones. The issues we're writing about in this book are of direct concern to our family, and it forms the basis for our own plans for Year-2000. We can only hope that we've made a modest contribution to society by articulating the issues for your consideration.

Edward Yourdon

Jennifer Yourdon

New York City, 1997

DJ @ 11:35. How can a prediction of "A couple more days to the upside" in Silver be a "Great call"??? Anyone who's been following the stuff closely has been screaming as loudly as possible that now is the time to buy it. I've been preaching silver here for weeks now, and posting the times that I moved most of my free investment assets into it. Is that a "great call" considering Gold's dismal performance? Many many other folks have been calling for Silver's continual rise here also. ( OK, RJ has been ambivelant, but maybe he's wrong on this one eh? )

"A couple more days to the upside" is a terrible call! Especially since it's been moving steadily upwards for weeks now, since it's sympathetic mini crash when Gold collapsed to the $310 level.

You want a good call on Silver, try a few weeks, months, and YEARS to the upside!! ( With big dips down as new supplpies move in from melting pots and warehouses ) Now there is a call.

Vronsky's Guru who predicted great things for SIlver stocks was also a great call. SSC, and SSRIF both up 6% today so far.

Crystal Ball
That is me.

PolarBear Good morning cousin:- ) ) . I have heard reports that much of the news about Japanese financial markets, and the upcoming deregualtion there, is not reported well or at all in their media. Is this your experience and do you have a good site for this type of news?
BTW, go silver! ( though this usually is a jinx! )

Didn't you mean to type in "Sharkfin" as your handle Nick? ;- ) And what was that upbraiding you gave me last night eh? Didn't catch what you were referring to.

Yours of 11:41 very appropos. Love the cockroach scenario...Yo susponno los haces nos otros oro-amantes somos como las cucarachas.

Dec Gold if forming a beautiful flag atop the pole ( try 6 min. charts ) . Looks like it wants to settle ~308 today.

Maybe you are 'in the know' more than the people I work with who are programmers, are working on this problem and who are scared s!!tless about this. Its not a technology problem. It is a logistics problem. It is not just a matter of a few companies being able to weather the storm. The entire IS infrastructure of the entire plant must be overhauled, tested and running perfectly by mid '99, not Dec 31st, 1999.

The question I must ask is this: " If Karlito99 is wrong and this thing DOES melt the system down, what is he going to do to assure the Allen ( USA ) feels no pain? " The answer is you are not in a position to do anything for me. Forewarned is forearmed. Plan for the worst and hope for the best. Because IF IT DOES MELTDOWN THERE WILL BE NO TIME TO SECURE YOUR LOT IN THE WORLD, FRIENDS, unless you have done so well in advance.

Every opinion is worth consideration. But an opinion and 85 cents will get you a cup a joe. If you are entirely sure that this 'problem' will be resolved THAN GO INTO THE BUSINESS OF INSURING EVERYONE AGAINST ITS FAILURE. You will indeed reap great reward. But alas and alack I fear there are no major insurance companies issuing insurance of this type. I wonder why???

Steves specially edited: BREAKING NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

( This will keep you going for a little while! )

Delta Gold/Place Dome stake possibly first round of Gold Industry Rationalisation

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business2.html

A quick history lessons shows that booms do bust - The Maverick

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/market/markets2.html

Humble Seoul faces the economic music

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world2.html

Need for Stability tops APEC Agenda

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world3.html

Beijing calls for urgent overhaul

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world4.html

EU political turmoil

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world9.html

Recovery in Korea or Japan Not Close, Says Westpac Inv. Manager

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business1.html

National Australia Bank paints gloomy picture for 1998

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business4.html

Korea casts long shadow over Australian economy

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business5.html

Korea & Japan going under may spell Global Deflation

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/perspective/perspective4.html

Asia Doomsayers emerge in the US ( Ed Yardini/Henry Kaufman )

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world2.html

Wake Up! This shock in Global!

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world3.html

Liquidators move in on Japanese Department Store Chain in Hong Kong

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world4.html

The heat is rising over Executive Packages

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/invest/invest2.html

TOLERANTL: Re:Y2K situation. My thoughts exactly.. However my clients

at IBM in Perth are quite concerned about certain insto's systems.

Don't fly on the day!

From an anonymous reader of DEAR ABBY......
A man went into a fortune-teller's shop and waited for a reading. The
fortune-teller gazed into the crystal ball and said, "You will be poor
and unhappy until you are 45 years old."
"Then what will happen?" asked the man.
The fortune-teller replied, "Then you'll get used to it."

{:- ) }

November 21, 1997
Hasbro shutting Texas plant, 700 layoffs

PAWTUCKET, R.I. ( Reuters ) - Hasbro Inc. will lay off 700 workers at its plant in El Paso, Texas, as it shifts manufacturing to Mexico and other non-U.S. locations, the company said Friday.

The El Paso plant, acquired in 1991 from Tonka Corp., is used primarily to make Playskool and Tonka toys.The Pawtucket-based toymaker employs about 12,000 workers around the world and reported revenues for the first nine months of 1997 of $2.1 billion with net earnings of $116 million.
Those figures represent about an 8.0 percent gain over the
similar period for 1996.Hasbro's stock was up 12.5 cents at $29.125 in late morning trading on the American Stock Exchange.

November 21, 1997
Yaohan closes Hong Kong shops

HONG KONG ( Reuters ) - The Yaohan department store empire in Hong Kong shut its doors and faced liquidation Friday amid a pile of debt, leaving nearly 3,000 workers fighting for jobs or compensation.

The Yaohan Hongkong Corp Ltd announced overnight that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Yaohan Department Store ( H.K. ) Ltd, had applied to Hong Kong's High Court for its shutdown due to an inability to repay its debts.

The Yaohan chain has nine department stores in Hong Kong -- virtually one in every town in the territory -- as well as a store in nearby Portuguese-ruled Macau.

Most of the 2,700 people employed by the Hong Kong operation, which has been clocking up heavy losses, were out of their jobs.

The Hong Kong government stepped in swiftly to cushion the blow of the layoffs. Termination entitlements are covered to a large degree by a government fund set up under the Hong Kong Protection of Wages on Insolvency Ordinance.

Employee representatives said the company owed them HK$100 million ( $12.8 million ) in back pay and compensation. Most of them, in their 30s and 40s, faced a gloomy future because Hong Kong's retail sector has run into lean and troubled times.
Yaohan Hongkong had losses of HK$103.71 million ( $13.4 million ) for the year to March 31.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/RETAILING-YAOHAN.html

Seen the Predator's Investment Newsletter lately? Watch out for that fin silently slicing through the shares, making its approach to prey. Oh, my!!! wE Be watchin' dude! ;- )

November 21, 1997
Canadians investing for their retirement

OTTAWA ( CP ) - A review of economic statistics released this week: -RRSP contributions: Increase. Canadians salted away a record $26 billion toward retirement in 1996 in RRSPs. That represented a six per cent increase in participants and a 13 per cent rise in contributions from 1995. Contributions ranged from an average $2,488 for those under age 30 to $6,235 for those 55 and over in 1996. The average contributor was 42 years old. The average overall contribution was $4,398, compared with $4,110 in 1995.


-Corporate profits: Up.
A four-year trend toward growth in corporate profits continued in the third quarter of this year, with earnings up by 2.7 per cent from the previous quarter. The increase pushed profits for the period to $27.7 billion. Profits in financial industries increased to $7 billion from $6.4 billion in the second quarter. Higher overall profits increased the annual return on shareholder equity to 9.9 per cent in the third quarter from 9.2 per cent in the previous quarter.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Stats-Review.html

Could the IMF be selling gold to get the money for these bailouts. Where are they going to get 50 billion to bail out Korea much less the rest of the Asian countries? The US has said NYET to the last IMF funding plan so where is the money going to come from? Someone out there who knows please give me a clue. bye

LGB
This site just keeps on getting better,
Specially when my precious is going up.
I was merely reminding you of your LBG_2 promise.
No name calling.
Be it bull or bear, we take our sides with conviction.
One side right, the other wrong.
Steve's take of what goes on is as valid as yours.
BTW Your recent silver purchases must be doing well.

Allan @ shark pond
Every lap brings them closer and closer.
They smell the blood on the streets.

6 pak, thanks for the post on Canadian contributions. U.S. trend is similar. More folks contributing higher dollar amounts than ever before. I read an analysis a few weeks ago that showed today's average employee is contributing 3 to 4 times as much ( percentage basis ) as our forefather retiree's did. This is one reason I remain long term bullish on U.S. stock market. Billions will continue to flow in weekly, unless we have an all out depression and all lose our jobs!

It was said on CNBC earlier that congress would most likely increase funding to IMF in exchange for Japan's promise not to sell T Bills. It was also said that these bailouts were usually very good for equity markets.

Steve's post about Suharto's son getting his bank is really interesting. Obviously, the IMF is not effective in reducing corruption which is the major cause of problems in these countries to begin with.

Does anyone know how the IMF distributes these funds. Do they give the countries the funds up front or do they distribute it over time? Also how do you suppose countries will fund the IMF? Will they sell gold?

What, you havn't noticed I'm trying to be more civil?? ;- ) yes, Silver is doing incredibly well. Up about 20% from my average buy price in just a few short weeks. And with a lot further to go!

Now as to the existentialist belief that "Steve's take is as valid as mine" I beg to respectfully differ. All opnions are not equally valid Nick. The opnions that prove out through events, facts, and predictive fulfillment are quite superior.

Saying that a belief in a placebo as effective medication makes it euqally valuable as the genuine medicine, is not a valid belief. Steve's Bear prognostications ring hollow with those of all his predecessors who have been echoing the same sentiments for the same reasons for 2 decades now and been totally wrong the entire way. Only now do we draw closer to having a grain of truth to what is being said, as we approach maximum P/E ratios and lower dividends, and a turning point in the metals is in the cards for FUNDAMENTAL supply/demand reasons having nothing whatsoever to do with Doom and Gloom.

Sorry Nick, but "Heaven's Gate" member's take on Hale-Bopp was NOT as valid as a scientific analysis of the comet was.

LONDON, Nov 21 - Silver dissolved its unofficial marriage with gold on Friday, striding to an 18-month high on the back of New York COMEX buying as its dull former partner refused to budge.

``The divorce is official and as the papers have come through, people have realised its link to gold doesn't matter,'' one London dealer said of silver.

Spot silver spiked to $5.45 an ounce at one point, its highest level since May 9, 1996, when it marked a session high of $5.46 an ounce bid.

Gold barely flickered, rising little more than 50 cents during silver's jump before dropping back below $304 an ounce to the narrow range it had kept until then.

Gold fixed at $303.90 an ounce in the afternoon, 50 cents up on the morning, as attention focused elsewhere.

Silver's rally, which has taken it from an October 28 session low of $4.65 an ounce, has gathered pace since Wednesday, when the metal rose briefly from $5.12 to $5.28 before settling mid-way between the two at the New York close.

Friday's rally, which began at 1346 GMT once New York trading had started, took silver through its previous high for the year of $5.40 from March 3, shattering intermediate resistances on the way.

Silver had been dragged to its late October low by the bearish sentiment in gold, which has been down to 12-1/2-year lows on the back of relentless rumours and news of central bank sales of reserve gold.

Silver's decisive break from gold means that supply fundamentals, and perhaps the fund buyers mentioned incessantly by dealers in recent weeks, have finally overcome the trading sentiment tying it to gold.

``It's pretty frantic at the moment and you don't get in the way of a runaway train. It went through resistance at $5.30 and people will logically target $5.50,'' said the dealer.

``Silver forwards have been tightening for some time and people have found it harder and harder to justify the link to gold,'' the dealer added.

The gold/silver ratio, a sometime trading tool of bullion dealers, was at 55.74 after the afternoon gold fix.

``Who cares about the ratios? People are not really trading the ratio now. If they are, they're mad,'' said the dealer.

Platinum was last at $393.50/$395.50, 50 cents up on its close, while palladium was at $210.00/$212.00, up a dollar.

Test

testing

Here's one for my good buddies out there!
"It is not too difficult to make money in commodity trading,
the problem is to keep it." --------Roy Longstreet

If silver soars, can gold be far behind?

Does any body know if on internet gold chart going back as far as 1930 are available?. I need to look at a gold chart at the time of the stock market crash of 1929-1931 time apan.

LGB
I did Sir.
And I will always enjoy discussion like a gentleman.
I am as big a bear as Steve, but with a difference.
I only became one this year.
And I look at lots and lots of charts.
Already one can see the terminal rot setting in.
But then I could be wrong.

Neophyte
I had heard that of the $30 billion that Indonesia got,
That $27 billion of it went straight to the banks customers.
I'm not sure whether this is true or not.
If it is, it doesn't leave much for fixing up the countries economical problems.
The Govt's must think that it is one big gift.
Having their bad debt's paid off for them.
How often do IMF funds get repaid?
I posted a graph of IMF's available funds here awhile ago.
It showed that they only had 60 odd billion two years ago.
They must be starting to feel the squeeze.

The reason I post these articles is because I appreciate the reciprocal articles from elsewhere around the globe. This site therefore becomes highly efficient in news gathering. I am not "bearish" about shares, believe it or not, but am looking for a bottom in the market. Might be quite a while. The dividend yields are slowly improving in Australian stocks. But not enough yet. Gold obviously is intrinsically linked, but really does not live immune to other categories of investment. It is becoming clear that world Governments have not prepared any programs to deal with the coming mass unemployment. Then the "investor" 401k money will really dry up.

NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

Delta Gold/Placer Dome stake possibly first round of Gold Industry Rationalisation
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business2.html

A quick history lesson shows that booms do bust - The Maverick
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/market/markets2.html

Humble Seoul faces the economic music
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world2.html

Need for Stability tops APEC Agenda
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world3.html

Beijing calls for urgent overhaul
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world4.html

EU political turmoil
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world9.html

Recovery in Korea or Japan Not Close, Says Westpac Inv. Manager
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business1.html

National Australia Bank paints gloomy picture for 1998
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business4.html

Korea casts long shadow over Australian economy
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business5.html

Korea & Japan going under may spell Global Deflation
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/perspective/perspective4.html

Asia Doomsayers emerge in the US ( Ed Yardini/Henry Kaufman )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world2.html

Wake Up! This shock in Global!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world3.html

Liquidators move in on Japanese Department Store Chain in Hong Kong
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world4.html

The heat is rising over Executive Packages
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/invest/invest2.html

LGB2_A - My compliment to Eldorado was not meant to belittle the advice that you and others have offered re: silver. I know that you have been touting silver. Even I, with my channels charts, am showing silver in a strong up trend. However, things don't go up in a straight line. I have been more cautious lately, and have been taking profits off the table on the early side.

Eldorado's comment, among other things, convinced me to hold onto a silver trade a little longer, and this decision changed a good trade into a very good trade. As I'm no expert in TA, I always admire those like Eldorado, EB, and a few others, that seem to have a good feel for near term direction, and I value their comments ( and profit from them! ) .

The Dow, INX, OEX, NYA.X
Have all put in double tops - intaday.
If they fail to break these and sell off,
The bears will come out to play.

Can gold be far behind? Remember the classic 16 to 1 ratio? For gold$304 that would be silver $19.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971121/brazil_shrs_hold_hea_1.html

The bailout is not in place and reports already attribute the market sentiment as good because the situation is under control.

Folks, the Round-Eyed Magician of the West NEEDS for us to pay attention to the distractions, so that he can work his magic.

The IMF isnt going to lend SKorea 20, 60, 80, 100B, because the IMF doesnt have it; the lender of last resort finds itself in a Resort torn asunder by a Force 10 storm. Theyre having trouble getting a stiff drink, let alone a six course meal!

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs\ft\survey\sup0996\11liquid.htm

Granted, this survey is September of 1996 and granted they mention General Arrangements to Borrow, and credit arrangements to borrow from Saudi Arabia, but one might argue that deep pockets are already stuffed with smoldering paper.
It would be interesting to speculate what news stories will be worked to maintain confidence. To protect Belief.

All money is belief.

And that is the war that is now being waged; one wonders how much of Saddam was Magicians Dust to focus eyes on Might & Power .

As for IMF gold sales: one might reasonably suspect that gold will be conserved to provide a stalwart ( isnt this a nice word to use in conjection with financial concerns...oh to live in a world where money was stalwart! ) foundation in the Global Reset...the really New Paradigm: a global currency back by gold.

Note: One may infer from the above statements that the US Federal Reserve is no longer the lender of last resort, which this observer believes to be the case.


THANK YOU

To: Carl@SDR rejigger post

Thanks Carl, Im so far behind I would have missed that but for you!


To: Kiwi@NZ, Pete@?
Thank you so much for the Rees-Moog post. When one is swimming against the current, it is indeed pleasant to come across a raft where one can rest for a moment or two.

To: Sharefin@work
We all missed the insights ( prose and poetry )

Kitco chat is getting different after passwords introduction. Was it worth?

Apparently they have 3 trillion yen going down the tanker.

SDR
Hello
I'll go and rustle one up for you.

Avid chatter
Reason for market stalling.
---------------------------------------------------------
-Yamamichi to file for bankruptcy, all principals bought euros.
-Screw TA at this point look whats happening to the debt markets. Something is brewing
--------------------------------------------------------------------
If those 4 double tops are left, it could be curtains.

I wouldn't argue that it can't be fixed with a minimum of disruption. But there is a percentage of risk which I won't ignore.

Non-technical people have a right to opinions, obviously. But because even programmers are notorious for underestimating completion dates, my biggest worry is the fixed implementation date by which so many extremely complex and interdependent systems must be ready.

Many systems are affected minimally if at all. The systems which fail then proceed to corrupt compliant systems are the ones to worry about.

LGB: "Man on the moon?" It looked like Utah to me. ( No tirades please - just joking. )

more coming about that japanese brokerage, looks bad for them.
---------------------------------------------------------



How quiet the dawn light
And the white mist
Rising through the trees
And the hills high edge
A tracery
On the edge of the departing night

Even birdsong is muted
And the emerging light
Stirring pale veils
Of the silent night

About me
Magic is unfolded
In the still air
Coolness a benediction

The quiet is an open door
Into a world of peace
A reality deeply desired
And felt so clearly
This magic hour at dawn.

Too soon, the sun
Clamours -- as he does
For space
Drowns the limpid valley
In refulgent light
And the burden
Of too exuberant heat.

MARKET UPDATE ( 11/21/97 ) AM-----Gold and silver zoomed higher in early trading on tight supplies and short covering by traders worried that the price was about to break out. The metals also received a boost from traders who believe that the talk of central bank sales and lending has been overdone. So far the lending and selling that has occurred has not been enough to match the strong demand coming from Asia and elsewhere in the wake of the currency crisis which has rolled over one nation after another. Many feel that the U.S. authorities are going to have to do something to nudge the dollar lower -- giving even more impetus to physical ownership of the metal. The World Gold Council recently reported record worldwide physical demand and pointed out that though demand has ebbed in Southeast Asia the gold price has doubled in many of these beleaguered currencies -- a circumstance which is likely to fuel demand in the future. Gold warehouse stocks were down again yesterday ( - 3099 ounces ) following the Swiss Bank/COMEX under-reporting scandal. Much more gold has left the warehouse than previously reported and Swiss Bank has announced it will cease operations as a COMEX gold depository as a result of the scandal. London Interbank gold loan rates hit a cyclical high of 4% today -- a psychologically important number especially in light of the chance that dollar rates could fall. Whenever currency rates become competitive with the gold rate, the incentive is to borrow currency instead of gold. Silver broke into new territory for this uptrend. Though metal came back into the COMEX warehouse last night, it is believed to be in "strong" hands. Commenting on the silver situation, James Quinn, commodity commentator for A.G. Edwards, said, "It's quite simple. You've got 127 million ounces of silver in the warehouses. That's about 25000 lots. You've got 39000 lots of open interest in December. You got a huge long position in the market. And first notice day is next Wednesday." The analysis on gold is similar. The yen continues up this morning. The Dmark and Swissie are down. The Dow is up 25 at the moment. This could be an interesting day. We will update if anything interesting happens. If not, have a good weekend, fellow goldmeisters. See you here Monday.

Delphi: I think it was worth it. It didn't cost us anything.

Testing new password system...

D.A. - Actually I was referring to Comex price ( I am a commods trader ) . I apologize if I had mislead you. I constructed a 'pearl' post last night only to be denied entry. I guess it was for the better, no? ( for me perhaps ) . I do not watch the cash prices so much as I do the Comex price. My 'work' said gold no higher than 308 and it still might come to pass...time will tell. And last night I was feeling good ( perhaps too ) and getting cocky.

So let us work on a little wager. Perhaps for next week. I am serious about the small Eagles. I use them for ball markers. They are cute and I could use another one. If I got filled this a.m. how am I doing right now?? Not too shabby I would say...and if I got out NOW I would have a profit, no??

Crystal Ball - 100% is a very tall order. If I were ever 100% I would not be of this planet ( I would be with LGB sitting on the backside of Hale-Bopp ) . 40% in this biz is enuff to make you wealthy. My motto is: Minimize your losses, Maximize your gains...I never said it was original ;- ) .

AWAY...to be 40%



Spud, you get some dmark? en? Gold?!? oh my...choo! choo!...

Anybody out there familiar with Mr. Crawford. I see him on CNBC from time to time. He said something very about the stars and such showing some very bad things around Thanksgiving. Just afterwards actually.

Tolerant
Remember that question you asked me the other day?
Well now looks a lot better in my eye.
Todays internals lead me to believe,
That we will engage in another selling wave.
IMHO

November 21, 1997
Fed holds sale: $4 only $11.50 - limited time only

BOSTON ( Reuters ) - The U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing was holding a one-day sale at the Boston Federal Reserve Bank Friday.

The Bureau was offering uncut sheets of $1, $2 and $5 bills that it suggests are suitable for souvenirs and gifts. The least expensive sheet of four $1 bills costs $11.50 --almost a 300 percent markup over what the currency is worth in your wallet.

A full sheet of 32 $5 notes was being sold for $190. Cut, the bills would be worth $160. "I wouldn't buy it myself," one Boston Fed employee said of the sheets, which come in cardboard folders. "A 300 percent markup seems a bit much."

The uncut sheets of notes bearing the signatures of Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and U.S. Treasurer Mary Ellen Withrow are fully monetized currency. A spokesman for the Bureau of Engraving and Printing said proceeds from the sale would go to fund its operations. The
bureau does not receive appropriations from Congress, he said.

LGB2_A,all: Did you notice Steve-Perth's post about Ed Yardeni? He was a dyed_in_the_wool US market bull only a few months ago -- much of his enthusiasm due to the baby boom in our country, which will peak spending-wise around 2010-2015. Japan doesn't have this, so is more at risk for a downturn. I assume you have read Harry Dent's book, "The Great Boom Ahead", which very clearly says the same thing.

Ed Yardeni is now a bear! His argument goes as follows: Japan+S Korea + SE Asia represent 25% of US exports, and 37% of imports. Exports from the US to SEAsia will drop drastically, and I think what EY is saying is that nearly 1/2 of all US imports just got 20-40% cheaper! As I recall, all foreign trade in the US is about 33% of GDP now and rapidly rising -- much more quickly than the GDP. Labor outside the US is so much cheaper, ( a few cents/hour in China ) that now with GATT and NAFTA there is no reason for many companies to continue to manufacture anything in the US. So - the bottom line is that we are vulnerable now to variations in the foreign trade situation, and will become much more so very soon. Only about 10years ago that would not have been true, and we could have ignored the economic strength/weakness of the rest of the world.

Ed Yardeni is concerned about the timing of the SE Asia crisis ( reduced real SEAsian labor costs ) just as US labor costs are starting to rise. That will encourage more US based companies to pull up stakes and reduce their overhead by moving to a foreign country. This means fewer good paying jobs in the US. We could wind up with a very narrow industrial base consisting of computer/electronic companies, and service companies. Where are all of those Americans going to work? Macdonald's and Wendy's? These concerns about GATT and NAFTA were raised by Sir James Goldsmith, in his book, "The Trap", and apply even more to Europe than to the US.

Ed Yardeni also says that Asia will not recover as quickly as Latin America did during the Mexican peso crisis of 1995. This latter point makes sense, as Latin America has had more time to become aquainted with methods of using Western "Paper".

I think the most optimistic scenario is a US recession, with continued loss of manufacturing capacity to much cheaper overseas locations. The US based computer revolution has been a major driving force, and will help us get out of any hardships to come. I find it reassuring that companies like Hewlett Packard and Intel continue to thrive, though I'm a little worried about whether Intel can keep up the speed and price pace. After we have weathered the current financial and economic crises looming over us, I will be eager to invest in companies like HP and other US stars. But not till then. Alot will happen in the next 6 months, I think.

It is hard for an empty sack to stand upright.

Ben Franklin

Tolerant
Arch is an Astro Bear
He has been calling the market for quite a while,
And has a strong track record.
I think he sees a crash soon.
He has been talking about it for the last few months.
Do you have his latest forcast?
And can you post it here please.

EB
Do I hear a change in ones habitat.

Selby, number of very interesting posters are gone and slowly it is getting boring. At the same time we saw yesterday, that there is not a big problem to post trash here under new regulations. Sorry if my English is not OK

No, I do not. I remember somebody on Kitco does and will post something in time.

Don't worry it was just his way of saying, "Hey, don't you recognize MY greatness". He just has a little trouble sometimes with social skills. I must admit he is making a valiant effort with only a few slip ups. It's hard to scrub those spots off the leopard.

btw...how is your 'ratio' thing with the PA/PL. Any 'fruit' from the labor?? It is a tough racket, no?!?

away...to be nice to all living things

lovingandcaring

DelphI: Your English is fine as far as I can tell. It maybe be boring but the Net is filled with comedy and joke sites. Wait til gold goes up and it won't look too boring then.

Be Quiet...Consume...and Die EH! : ) : ) : ) : ) : ) : ) : ) : ) : )

November 21, 1997
No. 1 coffin maker wants thrift license

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Ten years after a close brush with death, the savings and loan industry now finds the undertaker at its door. But Hillenbrand Industries Inc., owner of the world's leading casket maker, does not want to put the S&Ls six feet under -- it wants a license to operate its own.

Thrifts have long since recovered from the bad old days and are seeing renewed interest from a wide variety of nonbanking companies.

Although coffin sales through its Batesville Casket Co. subsidiary generate about half of Hillenbrand's profits, the company bolsters the bottom line by offering insurance policies that cover the cost of funerals. Now the firm plans to branch out and offer coffin shoppers trust services as well.

The company's treasurer, Mark Lanning, says meeting the funeral needs of customers before the sad day arrives is an important part of Hillenbrand's business.

With its current insurance plans, "we're probably meeting only half the pre-need market," Lanning said. "Without the thrift charter, we're handcuffed in offering trust services."

Hillenbrand plans to market the new services through thousands of local funeral homes, the same way it sells caskets and insurance today.

But consumers will not be heading to funeral homes to open a checking account or take out a new car loan. Lanning said the new savings and loan would stick to "pre-need" funeral offerings.

"We won't be opening branches or anything like that," he said.The Office of Thrift Supervision in Washington will take comments on the application for 20 days. A final decision from the regulatory agency could take anywhere from a few weeks to several months.

Hillenbrand, based in Batesville, Indiana, also owns Medeco, maker of well-known deadbolt locks and Hill-Rom, which sells hospital furniture.

The two last ten-minute bars on the XAU chart of yesterday and the first
bar today made a very bullish 3 marching soldiers pattern ( we opened
on the low and closed the bar on the high with upward gaps inbetween
the patterns. This is a continuation pattern. Today we had one sell-off
from a higher opening gap area which filled the gap, but the 10 and
30-minute bars were made a nice bullish hammer pattern ( open and
close near the high with a spike down in between to make today's
low. This was followed by 10-minute 3 marching soldiers again, and
a couple more hammers recently---all bullish. If we can close above
77.00 today I am looking for at least one more up day on Monday
that would allow me to unload some of my mutual fund long XAU
position to rebuy at lower prices. So far....so good!!!

NO.

away...to check on mama-bear...she's a hotty...



November 21, 1997
Downgrade adds to pressure on Yamaichi Securities

TOKYO ( Reuters ) - Japan's embattled Yamaichi Securities Co. Ltd came under additional pressure Friday when a leading international credit rating agency lowered its ratings on the brokerage to "speculative."

Moody's Investors Service announced it had lowered its senior debt rating on Yamaichi to Ba3 from Baa3 and its commercial paper rating to "not prime" -- the lowest grade for commercial paper on concerns about its financial health.

"We are concerned that it may be getting hard for Yamaichi to obtain liquidity from the market," Masaru Kakutani, representative director at Moody's Japan, told Reuters."It is important to see if the brokerage will be able to reconstruct its business on its own ... or move to take other options. We are closely watching this," he added.

The Ba3 rating is the lowest senior debt rating Moody's has assigned to any of the "Big Four" Japanese brokerages and the lowest for any brokerage operating internationally, an official at the rating agency said.

Moody's said it had also lowered Yamaichi Bank ( UK ) Plc's certificate-of-deposit rating to "not prime" from Prime-3. Moody's also warned that Yamaichi's senior debt rating could be lowered further.The rating cut, which came after the Tokyo stock market closed for a long weekend, could deal an added blow to shares of Yamaichi, which fell to a record low at one point in the week.

Yamaichi, the smallest of Japan's Big Four brokerages, has seen its shares spiral downward since Nov. 6, when Moody's warned it might cut its credit rating. Yamaichi ended at 102 yen Friday, down 80 percent from its 1997 high marked at the start of this year.


Moody's also pointed to fears about the long-term impact of Yamaichi's connection to a scandal involving payments to corporate racketeers and the diminished likelihood of government support in case of financial distress at the firm.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BROKERS-YAMAICHI.html

Under $300 an ounce you said, or do I hear you recanting AND tap dancing now? DMarks? Yen? Cough ... you mean worthless CONfidence slave-paper I assume? Oh no no no no, nice shiney honest Canadian gold.

Spud Master, observing the broken rails as EBConRail hurtles toward the abyss. chu chu chu chu chu chu ... screeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeech!!!! woooshhhh. ( extended doppler effect ) .

If they clank this company there is speculation that they will sell the US Treasuries they are holding. Anybody have an opinion on this?

tolerant1: I think your USAgold post hits the nail on the head. With all the currency devaluations around the world, there will be much pressure on the US to reduce the value of the dollar. That can only occur if the dollar value drops relative to the price of gold, since gold represents the only widely used hard currency.
The only problem with this is that the price of oil will rise, unless the deflationary phenomena currently in progress reduce demand, and new supplies come on line. A rise in the price of oil at this juncture would not be good for the world's economy to say the least. Perhaps the consensus among the "powers that be" is that demand for oil is dropping.
Unfortunaely none of the "powers that be" have encouraged alternative energy sources. Only Japan, some european countries ( Germany? ) and perhaps India have been serious about alternative energy.

Selby, I am not looking for "comedy and jokes" here. All what I am trying to say is that a lot of posters are gone. Do You expect ( for example ) ANOTHER messages after registration?

I thought the comment about gold lease rates hitting a cyclical high of 4% was interesting.

That Veneroso report is probably getting rewritten every 48 hours.

Amidst the currency chaos, mounting debt debris and stock market turmoil ravaging all-Asia, a voice emerges which goes to the core of the problems. John Kutyns observations and insights ring with Churchillian logic and clarity. In painful detail he paints the problems plaguing Asia... and with oracle eyes he foresees the havoc to be wrought before economic stability may be restored. His poignant observations regarding Japans forced action in US Treasuries and Gold will soon prove to be prophetic:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn111597.html

Can some one please tell me; what is the reason for looking at
"pure" plays? What about the portfolio of properties shuttered
and waiting. I thought CDE had the best properties in the world
after buying Callahan. And what about Hecla, didn't they buy some
of the old Bunker Hill property. Gee, I'm getting old, I can't even
remember for sure. And what about Industrias Penoles? They produce
over 10% of world silver, but they're not pure either.

sharefin: I agree with you that the market rise today should be stronger. Next week will be interesting. Is it going to be a downturn, or worse???

Yamaichi to ask MOF to manage liquidation

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Yamaichi Securities Co., one of Japan's four biggest brokerages, was expected to ask Japan's Ministry of Finance to coordinate the liquidation of the corporation, Japan's Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported in its Saturday edition.

I think the specific with reference to "pure" means companies that have not run off in search of gold in the recent few years. Go to;

http://www.gold-eagle.com and click on the digest section. Look for the Goldbug. At the bottom of the article you will see several other articles with coverage of specific silver mining companies.

November 21, 1997
GM to close Flint plant; build another: Report

FLINT, Mich. ( AP ) - General Motors Corp. will announce Friday that it is
closing the Buick City assembly plant and constructing a new Flint-area
engine plant, The Flint Journal reported.

GM refused to comment on the report. But company spokesman Gerry Holmes said GM will have an announcement regarding the plant about 4 p.m. EST, after officials talk with employees at the plant.

The closing of the Buick City Assembly Center, with 2,900 hourly and 225 salaried workers, has been anticipated for months. The plant makes the Buick LeSabre and Pontiac Bonneville. In the case of Buick City, GM officials are expected to say there will be no further "product allocation" for the plant after the 1999 model year. In effect, that means the plant will be idled when current production ends and officially closed after the current UAW-GM national contract expires that same year.

A source told the Journal the engine plant could cost about $500 million
US to build.

Friday November 21, 2:01 pm Eastern Time

Korean need seen exceeding $50 billion-US analysts

By Jeff Coelho

NEW YORK, Nov 21 ( Reuters ) - South Korea's damaged financial system would need at least $30 billion more in aid even if the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) agreed to dole out $20 billion in standby credits to the world's 11th largest economy, U.S. analysts said.

``I think ( a total package ) would have to be in excess of $50 billion,'' said Desmond Lachman, managing director of emerging markets at Salomon Brothers Inc.

Lachman said South Korea's private-sector foreign currency loans maturing in less than 12 months were close to $75 billion.

South Korea's new Finance Minister Lim Chang-yuel on Friday asked the IMF to provide standby credits to overcome difficulties in the financial and currency markets.

Lim said the size of the loans still had to be discussed, but his government and the IMF agreed that $20 billion would be sufficient. An IMF team would arrive next week to discuss the details.

Analysts said the IMF's liquidity position would allow it to handle about $15 to $20 billion.

``Twenty billion is a very honest, very good number,'' said Jeremy Fand, senior forex strategist at Bank of Boston.

``For the IMF to have come up with anything over $20 billion was unreasonable in the sense that they don't have that kind of money,'' he said.

The IMF dispersed about $4.0 billion to Thailand in August and $10 billion to Indonesia in October, leaving the organization with about $46 billion to lend, not including some $20 billion in borrowing facilities.

Fand said the challenge ahead was to see how successful the IMF could rally lending nations for assistance, namely the United States and Japan.

``In the end, you might be looking at a total package of at least $50 billion, he said, adding that reports of $80 billion and $100 billion were ''ridiculous.``

Analysts said the IMF should be able to conjure up funds from the United States and Japan despite Japan's own financial woes as a result of the Asian crisis.

``As difficult a problem the Japanese are in, they still are a net-creditor nation and can still dig deep into their pockets to help the Koreans,'' said Feroz Talyarkhan, managing director of Asian fixed income research at Bear, Stearns & Co Inc.

Talyarkhan said, however, an IMF-led package would not necessarily be the panacea for all of Korea's financial ills.

``Just because the IMF decided to work with the Koreans does not necessarily mean everything is going to be rosy from now on,'' he said.

Financial markets were initially euphoric after the IMF pledged assistance to Thailand, noted Talyarkhan. ``But the euphoria soon died when it transpired that Thailand was not exactly up to executing the plan,'' he said.

``The main thing is to win back the confidence of investors and creditors, and if they have too small a package it may not do the trick,'' Talyarkhan said.

Friday November 21, 2:01 pm Eastern Time

Korean need seen exceeding $50 billion-US analysts

By Jeff Coelho

NEW YORK, Nov 21 ( Reuters ) - South Korea's damaged financial system would need at least $30 billion more in aid even if the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) agreed to dole out $20 billion in standby credits to the world's 11th largest economy, U.S. analysts said.

``I think ( a total package ) would have to be in excess of $50 billion,'' said Desmond Lachman, managing director of emerging markets at Salomon Brothers Inc.

Lachman said South Korea's private-sector foreign currency loans maturing in less than 12 months were close to $75 billion.

South Korea's new Finance Minister Lim Chang-yuel on Friday asked the IMF to provide standby credits to overcome difficulties in the financial and currency markets.

Lim said the size of the loans still had to be discussed, but his government and the IMF agreed that $20 billion would be sufficient. An IMF team would arrive next week to discuss the details.

Analysts said the IMF's liquidity position would allow it to handle about $15 to $20 billion.

``Twenty billion is a very honest, very good number,'' said Jeremy Fand, senior forex strategist at Bank of Boston.

``For the IMF to have come up with anything over $20 billion was unreasonable in the sense that they don't have that kind of money,'' he said.

The IMF dispersed about $4.0 billion to Thailand in August and $10 billion to Indonesia in October, leaving the organization with about $46 billion to lend, not including some $20 billion in borrowing facilities.

Fand said the challenge ahead was to see how successful the IMF could rally lending nations for assistance, namely the United States and Japan.

``In the end, you might be looking at a total package of at least $50 billion, he said, adding that reports of $80 billion and $100 billion were ''ridiculous.``

Analysts said the IMF should be able to conjure up funds from the United States and Japan despite Japan's own financial woes as a result of the Asian crisis.

``As difficult a problem the Japanese are in, they still are a net-creditor nation and can still dig deep into their pockets to help the Koreans,'' said Feroz Talyarkhan, managing director of Asian fixed income research at Bear, Stearns & Co Inc.

Talyarkhan said, however, an IMF-led package would not necessarily be the panacea for all of Korea's financial ills.

``Just because the IMF decided to work with the Koreans does not necessarily mean everything is going to be rosy from now on,'' he said.

Financial markets were initially euphoric after the IMF pledged assistance to Thailand, noted Talyarkhan. ``But the euphoria soon died when it transpired that Thailand was not exactly up to executing the plan,'' he said.

``The main thing is to win back the confidence of investors and creditors, and if they have too small a package it may not do the trick,'' Talyarkhan said.

tolerant1 ( Yamaichi = liquidation = ? ) REF Your Comment: If they clank this company there is speculation that they will sell the US Treasuries they are holding. Anybody have an opinion on this? To adequately answer this question, may I suggest reading the ENTIRE ORACLE Series ( Parts I to VII ) starting at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle624.html

Spud - do you use Canadian gold or US gold or Australian gold to purchase your groceries. The last time I tried it they would not except it. I had to use paper...and damn it was tough to turn my paper to gold ( I know, it will be impossible to turn paper into gold, and soon...yeah, I know I've heard this discussed before ) .

As for the Gold train heading toward the cliff ( btw, that doppler joke was quite hilarious ) .....I must agree...it will drop off that cliff...to the bottom finally??.....I don't know. Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock. And if it closes up today then we will look to the next day, and then the next...etc........until it reaches that abyss you talk about...oh my.

away...to let the train push on....I know you can...I know you can...I know you can

stokingthefire...chuga!

If Japan agrees not to sell our treasury bills and makes a public statement to that effect that would not be viewed positively. It would make most investors eventually realize that the dollar is being pumped up artificially by foreign money that is now needed back home. The people in Japan would probably not be thrilled to know that they are going thru an austerity plan while the US takes their money and has a party with it. Where did the talking heads from CNBC hear this.

AS for the IMF does anybody have a balance sheet on these guys. By my reckoning they have pledged about 30 billion in the last 3 weeks to the asian economies and that doesnt appear to be enough. Will they issue IMF bonds and if they do who backs that. Korea has to rollover a lot of debt soon and that will have to be in dollars I assume which means the debt would have to be issued in dollars. A letter of credit from the IMF may just mean that if investors ask for the money back next month the letter of credit will be worthless.

Just popping in to say that our activity level in coin sales has increased greatly in the past few weeks. A lot of interest in silver U.S. coin, both collector and junk silver.

Much interest in Gold U.S. common date $20 pieces also, Liberty and Saint. It would seem the Gold market at large is lagging behind the consumer market. Lot's of inquiries on Gold bullion coins also, though this is not our primary area of trade.

Of course the collectible Gold coins represent only 1% of the above ground invesntory, so we can't read too much into it, but perhaps the renewed interest is a precurser of things to come, in 1998.

We've raised our price on Saints to $489 and can scarcely keep them in stock, or find them available from our wholesale sources much below that price. 1980, here we come!

Hope all you site guru's are correct in progostications about metals meteoric rise. We have been touting Silver collector coins for some time, underpriced and undervalued as they are. It's time for the tide to turn for the metals. Have a profitable day, investors!

Vccoin@aol.com
http://www.vccoin.com

JTF
I have just browsed through about 40 shares,
And there is serious selling starting up again.
The bears should come out roaring next week.
But then you know I'm a big bear.
PPT done all the necessary work and standing by.

Look at silver go - still stretching for new highs.
Gold looks like it wants to follow soon.

Asia's woes yet to surface fully.
Saddam still playing cat and mouse.
Clinton wants Saddams drugs.
Bad astro coming on next week.
Moving into the 'darks'
Weather and global chaos increasing.
Makes for interesting times methinks.

vronsky - Thank you for your many posts. Your Gold-Eagle site is great! The articles you post on your site are a valuable source of information.

except = accept.....duh....sorry....

Has anyone been watching the big turnaround in en vs Mark/Swiss?? How very exciting to watch it unfold. What gives? And where is Donald??

To anyone who wishes to field - On stox epxiry days I've noticed that it always goes down the day of/before/after. Is this something that happens always? And do all the pros take advantage. It seems like a good play to make on spoos and other indice commod's. Oldman, Sharefin, APH...Eldo? Comments??

btw, Spud...our Eldo friend called for a 'dip' into 300 land on Thurs or Fri. I guess you gotta call him on it now. Or am I a better target?? I don't mind buddy... ;- )

Away...to work...finally...

gone

EB, no worry mate, just send you're "worthless" gold to old Spuds here and I will be glas to send you CONfidence-based slave-paper ( anything but ) Federal ( of course no ) Reserve Notes for it.

Chuckle. You have as much arrogance as the Fed. May I flatter you by suggesting you start printing "EB" notes? They'd be based on something besides Federal Reserve nothingness. 1 EB$ = 1 FederalReserve$ to start out with ...got to leave you room for ego inflation.

Lineman Spuds, sadly shaking his head as EB comes off the tracks and tumbles ... 42 minutes for your sub $300 an ounce predicition...

sigh ... you're = your. glas = glad. Where's my pampliset?

Delphi: Except for Vronsky's adverts I really don't know what to expect here. I hope ANOTHER will show up again. I hope Mooney can get Kitco 2 functional again too.

With the staggering woes that have beset the Asian Tigers as
of late we may well need to expect a whole series of bailouts
for the Pacific economies akin to the 1980s bailout wave. And
the Fed sits poised to monetize new loans as needed. So there
is an endless stream of new debt that the Fed will be
monetizing into the foreseeable future on a grand scale.

All the while the central banks are shedding large portions of gold reserves in their on-going war on gold they are simultaneously weakening their own positions in terms of fungible, highly liquid assets.

A collapse in the stock markets and a run on bank deposits due to a global financial crisis could deal them a severe blow.

An excellent DETAILED review of Central Bank folly may be seen at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/voss112097.html

Well done, Eric.

You are killin' me man!

away...to make some EBnotes

fedDude

here's a great site link for ya. Excellent satellite images of East and West coast U.S. Pacific weather / storm watch from the GOES satellites ( built by my employer I might somewhat proudly add... )

All that hype aned I forgot to paste the link http://www.wenet.com/~uscg/index.html

EB
oleman: . . . . Thu, Nov 20, 11:30PM CST ( -0600 GMT ) temp: If it gaps up big and the 1 p.m. rally doesn't make new highs, they'll sell the heck out of it all afternoon.

Good call

Ukraine vows to defend national currency
Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press

KIEV, Ukraine ( November 20, 1997 6:11 p.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) -- Ukraine's central bank acted Thursday to prop up the national currency, the hryvna, which has shown signs of weakness in recent days.

Thursday November 20, 11:50 pm Eastern Time

Australia miners rethink strategy as gold drops

By James Regan

PERTH, Nov 21 ( Reuters ) - The apparently endless fall in the gold price has forced Australian mining companies
to rethink exploration and mining activities.

As gold hovers near its lowest price in 13 years, miners are questioning whether it is more prudent to shut higher
cost operations and live off of hefty forward sales positions in the hopes of a reversal in the price trend.

``For some it's cheaper to buy gold than to produce it at these prices,'' Hartley Poynton Ltd gold analyst Laurie
Fitzgerald said.

Spot gold settled overnight in the United States at US$302.60/303.10, with some dealers predicting a move below
US$300 an ounce soon.

Gold prospector Macmin NL ( MMN.AX ) said on Friday it will reduce its field exploration activity due to
depressed gold prices.

Last week Canada's Pegasus Gold Inc ( AMEX:PGU - news; Toronto:PGU.TO - news ) closed its Mount Todd
gold mine in Australia's Northern Territory and earlier this year mining companies Resolute Ltd ( RSG.AX ) , Sons
of Gwalia Ltd ( SGW.AX ) and General Gold NL ( GGR.AX ) also closed mines.

General Gold also is seeking a new joint venture partner to help fund its 50 percent-owned Guelb Mogrhein
copper and gold project in Mauritania, West Africa, due to weakening metals prices.

Other mining and exploration companies are also expected to announce curtailments to activities unless the gold
price recovers.

``The 1996/97 ( July June ) year has been a difficult period for the gold mining industry and more particularly for the
smaller speculative exploration companies, Macmin chairman Richard Beamish told the company's annual
shareholders meeting.

As a result, Beamish said Macmin has deferred development of its Mount Sinivit gold project in Papua New
Guinea for at least 12 months and is tightening its belt in other areas.

Papua New Guinea's Mines Department has granted approval for a variation in the terms of the mining lease at
Mount Sinivit to allow development to be deferred for up to two years.

Two other gold projects in Papua New Guinea, at Tabar and Woodlark Islands have been given similar length
extensions, Beamish said.

Earlier this month, The Broken Hill Pty Co Ltd ( BHP.AX ) said it will cease all exploration work in Papua New
Guinea, including its joint venture work with Macmin on the Crater Mountain prospect.

Beamish said the Busang gold scandal in Indonesia this year severely damaged investor confidence in the
exploration business.

The problems facing the industry are compounded by the subsequent downturn in the international gold price,
uncertainty about the intentions of governments which hold large gold stocks and weakening of Asian bourses, he
said.

``Considering the present financial climate it is obvious that Macmin and other joint venture partners would
experience difficulty in raising additional funds at this time,'' Beamish said.

Exploration work will be restricted to key target prospects, Beamish said.

Over the past week or so it seems that Gold and the DOW have returned ( somewhat ) to the inverse relationship they have had as the norm. Are my eyes deceiving me??? At this time it looks like gold is negative when the DOW is steady. Definitely drops when DOW moves up and it looked like an uptick in the intra-day chart when the DOW reversed and started to slide. Comments?

Selby, here are some names, "missed" after registration: Nick ( Aussie ) , ( ? ) George Cole, GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD, Bernatz de Ventadorm, Wichita Lineman, to name a few

CNBC is reporting that some of the Asian Tigers and China are preparing to have peace talks. Interesting to say the least.

NY Spot Gold closed Friday at $305.50. UP $1.60.

well, I suppose we can scratch THAT predicition, EB. How many puts did you have? Next sage prediciton, please.

sharefin: I agree with you that the markets may head south for a while. Just bought more out of the money SPX puts. Bought some more gold stocks ( actually FidSelAm gold with my 403b ) . I am still worried that gold will get trounced again if the market tanks, so 10% of my liquid assets only invested.

Wish I bought more silver stocks -- looks like a skyrocket to me! Hopefully there will be another entry point before silver hits the moon!

Would be nice if we knew what Arch Crawford was saying -- perhaps Mike Sheller is lurking around and sees this. I think Mike S was talking about Dec 1 as a time to be awake. New moon Nov 30, full Moon Dec 14 ( Universal time ) .

Did you see my post to LGB? Ed Yardeni's conversion from bull to bear is very interesting. He strikes me as very sharp. No new updates on Magicelf site. Temple's E Wave site interesting, and updated daily-thanks for directing me to it.

Also- Did you see Steve-Perth's posts? He's doing a great Donald emulation today! I think Donald wants to see how the password security works before he posts.

The one of Steve's that interests me is the one titled:

"Beijing calls for urgent overhaul" Sydney Morning Herald Nov22, 1997

Mainland Chinese leaders meet for 3 days to discuss the country's fragile financial system. The consensus is trouble ahead, and a request for help from the international community likely. The total of bad loans was $391 billion US ( I think this is mostly in SOE's where the money cannot be retrieved ) .

If China devalues their currency, this will not hurt them that much, because so many foreign investors are standing in line. The problem is what that will do to what is left of SE Asia.

Hang in there Delphi--Monday starts another week. Don't forget all the missing names could be just 1 person!! Maybe he is counting his silver profits at the moment.

I can appreciate a good row now and then. But IMO this is better than what was going on before. If ANOTHER, BIG TRADER, etc want to join in great. You only need to go to the local Internet Cafe or library to be untraceable. There are ISPs which provide a high degree of anonymity since cash will always talk.

Just a note about IP addresses and being faceless on the net. It is do-able. Just like making a call from a pay phone. Any service which has dynamic IP allocation will mask your connection. One's expressions, timing and information slips are more revealing than ferreting out IP addresses.

Here you have it folks, who will be the first in the US when things go wrong??
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971121/focus_yamaichi_to_ce_2.html

EB: Donald is safe and sound -- looking for news bytes -- he is waiting to see how the new password system works out before he posts.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971121/focus_yamaichi_to_ce_2.html

Outstanding comments by Roger Voss

***A truly thinking, engaged, and fact finding mind is what is

needed more of -- not a lazy ideological robot.***

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/voss112097.html

Does anyone know what the usual and customary "strings" are for a loan from either the IMF or World Bank, aside from fees and interest ?

Allen ( USA ) I may be wrong but I have always assumed that Kitco could figure out who I was within minutes if they wanted to since I/we have been calling into them without any "masking" that I know of. I assume that the new registration only limits us to using one name and that Kitco now has no more or less info about me or anybody else than they ever had.
Whats the problem?

November 21, 1997
HP authorizes $1 billion for stock buyback

PALO ALTO, Calif. ( Reuters ) - Hewlett-Packard Co. said Friday it had authorized about $1 billion for stock repurchases in addition to the $500 million remaining from earlier stock buyback plans. The computer maker said its total stock repurchase authorizations now total roughly $1.5 billion. The program seeks to offset dilution from issuing shares for employee stock benefit plans.

The board also declared a regular quarterly dividend of 14 cents a share, payable Jan. 14, 1998, to shareholders of record as of Dec. 24.

As of Oct. 31, 1997, the company had 1.04 billion shares of common stock outstanding.Hewlett-Packard's stock was up 44 cents to $63.31 in composite New York Stock Exchange trading.

JTF
I remember 6 moths ago Yardini saying 30% chance of a recession/depression.
Sounds like he has upped his antte.

The markets appear to have been massaged into the close.
Dow, NYA.X, INX, OEX all put in tripple tops.
The Dow and INX have been pushed through to new highs.
Nasdaq, Amex down - divergence?
Interesting that the Dow only closed higher after 4pm.
You can see the last trade at 4:06:19.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Dow33.gif
Someone wanted the Dow to close exactly where it is.

Nikkei futures down to 16200 but market closed Monday.
Asia will have to judge this huge failure without Japan's help.

By the way when is 'thanksgiving' - what day?

Allen ( USA ) : My take on the relation between gold and the markets is that we still have a real risk that "the powers that be" could trounce the gold market if the market tanks. The last thing they can afford during a threatening crash is for everyone to notice a "flight to safety" in gold. If the market wanders, or rallys, gold and gold stocks will probably do what silver is doing.

My suspicion is that with all of the currency devaluations going on, there will be much pressure to devalue the dollar, which will make gold go up. The only problem with this scenario is that gold will probably be pushed down if there is a major acute threat to the dollar.

sharefin: Thanksgiving day is Nov 27.

November 21, 1997
Stocks end higher after selling off on Japan press reports

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Blue-chip stocks closed higher Friday after a volatile session as Wall Street wrestled with new jitters over Japan's economy. The market was also buffeted by the double-witching expiration of stock index futures and options.

Based on early, unofficial results, the Dow Jones industrial average rallied to end 54.46 points higher at 7,881.07 following a late selloff on press reports that Japan's Yamaichi Securities Co. was having financial problems. In the broader market, advancing issues led declines by a small margin on active volume of 596 million shares on the New York Stock Exchange. The Nasdaq composite index was off 5.79 points at 1,620.77.

All of the talk lately about Brazil and Korea defending their currencies is rediculous. In business and in currencies you are only as strong as your weakest link. So you decide to protect your currency at all cost. So what. NOw you go into the worst recession of your life because everybody else you compete with decided to not play by those rules. So if Korea and Brazil do the "right" thing then I would hate to be an exporter in that country trying to compete with those coutries who do the "wrong" thing. Once this got started it can NOT be stopped unless you can patch up the "bad" currency countries or take the US dollar down big time. To me the obvious solution to all of these coutries who are having trouble pegging their currency to the US dollar is to tank the dollar and make it easier for them to maintain their peg to the dollar. It is in the US's best interest to keep the peg alive so that foreign cb's can take their excess cash flow and buy our bonds. If the peg is broken then who needs to invest in our bonds anymore because their currency will no longer be pegged to the dollar. As Al Davis used to say in football the quarterback must fall hard. AS Greenspan must say at some point the dollar fall.

sharefin: That "v" formation in the DOW just before closing -- suspicious! Perhaps next week we will have a tug of war between the bulls and the bears.

Did you see the 1 billion dollar buyback announcement by HP today? Interesting.

Off to do family chores -- will check in later.

I agree Yardeni's newest take is signifigant, also the balance of trade shifting so quickly against the U.S. lately, and Asian financial market turmoil all having an effect. yes I read "The coming Bull" , interesting book. I think our chances of a downturn are signifigant, but chances of an all out crash/meltdown isn't in the cards. I'll stay on the sidelines waiting for trends and fiddling with my company stock trades ( in and out, ignoring wise counsel, playing the volatility like a Moron!!!... )

but I got my SILVER to save me from any problems eh!!! Though a worldwide recession would seriously slow down the demand for the Silver ( and Platinum ) ....

It looks like they are clones of each other. NASDAQ is on its own course. But looking at the other two, except for the number values, you can't tell them apart. Are we looking at massive index trading ovewhelming individual shares trading???

Friday, November 21, 1997
Dow Jones board votes to sell Markets unit - NY Times

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The board of Dow Jones & Co. Inc. met Thursday and voted to put the company's troubled financial-information division up for sale, the New York Times reported on Friday, citing a person close to Dow Jones.

The vote on the division, Dow Jones Markets, comes a day after the company announced that it would cut up to 7 percent of the unit's 4,000-member staff and would sharply reduce investment spending for it next year.

A detailed analysis of Dow Jones Markets, formerly Telerate, is expected to be prepared and completed in about three weeks and then will be available to prospective buyers, the paper said.

Those are likely to include Bloomberg LP, Reuters Holdings PLC, Thomson and Welsh Carson, Anderson & Stowe, the investment company that owns Bridge News, the paper said.

The company acknowledged that the board realized that Dow Jones Markets would not be an easy sale, the paper said.Dow Jones on Thursday said that it would close Servicio Dow Jones Americas, a Spanish-language financial-news wire, and Money Management Alert, which provides news on mutual funds and related industries.

here's the Yardini article link http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/market/markets4.html

Thanks JTF
Might be a poor one this year?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-some day we will have to pay the piper, but bobby working overtime to keep the klinostras out of jail.
-It'll be interesting to see how the spin doctor the bankruptcy of the 4th largest firm in Japan. I'm not saying it can't be done but it could be real interesting.
-South and North Korea and China and U.S. peace talks. Asia to boom!!!!!
-a lot of big boys lost big earlier in the month on their short puts, imo this last week was manipulated so they could get it back.
-ndx options settle on the open, notice how it is down over 5 bucks, and substantially below this a.m. 's high; same old story bail out the big boys,
-Bigger bankruptcy's to come, in Japan
-I think the big traders cannot manipulate the market other than for a few minutes at key price levels and I think yesterday's high was such a level. I was watching spoos option trades on my terminal and a great many big blocks of spoos options traded, both Puts and Calls, in a one hour period right around that high.
-this week , my friends, brought to you by bobby and the boys, had to replinish wall street's back pocket.
-do not underestimate rubin,
-I have the feeling we could puncture the old bollinger band pretty good on Monday.
-you are premature, the bloodletting just started...
-wow look at that short covering burst
-Jesus what are the futures doing
-Japan hasn't crawled yet to IMF
-Why did OEX close up with such a high premium over the spoos?
-Japan, won't go to IMF, too much pride..
-Japan is a nation with deep history and tradition, its people will not let it get out of hand
-oex is goosed, 2.5 pts ahead of spx
-if any of the major players get into trouble rubin and the fed gladly step in to bail the out. Just look at citicorp, probably one of the most mismanged firms in the late '80s early '90s; these days no one ( if you are big enough ) has to pay for their mistakes.
-I wasn't serious about IMF. They'll find money elsewhere including selling a few bonds.
-It is already out of hand, just hidden from view. Poker face politics
-wow look at that candle, my god!!!!!
-Heh, they're closing it high so limit down isn't so low. :- ) )
-They don't want limit down to break 955.
-What the hell was that, I haven't seen the futures make one of these after cash closing runs for months...
-probably rubin lobbed a massive buy order on the close, in preparation for monday.
--------------------------------------------------------------

Email addresses are just aliases,like url text strings. Eventually it all boils down to IP addresses. If one had someone's IP address with persistence one could trace the whereabouts of that user. My point is that if BIG TRADER or ANOTHER were truly concerned about being traced that there are ample ways to keep that from happening. Both of these poster ( s ) aluded to being concerned. That is why I posted this.

Allen ( USA ) : Got it. Trust this will all work out for the best.

I will write here. Our Thoughts belong

to the world.

LGB2_A: Thanks for the post. Yardini I think is on the ball, and not biased on the bullish, or bearish side. He probably calls them as he sees them.

Interested in corelating when these are in tandem and when they invert. Would be a pretty convincing indicator of gross manipulation, which would be hard to rationalize otherwise, no?

Not ALL our thoughts though "Another"!! ( I saw this babe walking by at work and... )

Thanks! Will await your missives.

"This is it, the Japanese government has to make a decision now. There is no tomorrow, there's no December 15, they have

Monday," said John Gariano, vice president at Sumitomo Bank New York.

"They have to decide whether to use a financial stabilization fund or just say sayonara and let the whole ball of wax melt

down," Gariano added."

http://www.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/DOLLAR.html

November 21, 1997
Dollar rises on news of possible Yamaichi failure

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The dollar resumed its upward trajectory against the yen on Friday after news that Japan's Yamaichi Securities was preparing to cease operations, but fell against the mark amid strong buying of the German currency for yen.

"This is it, the Japanese government has to make a decision now. There is no tomorrow, there's no December 15, they have Monday," said John Gariano, vice president at Sumitomo Bank New York. "They have to decide whether to use a financial stabilization fund or just say sayonara and let the whole ball of wax melt down," Gariano added."

The dollar rose to 126.47 yen in late trading from 125.88 on Thursday. It was lower at 1.7380 marks from 1.7405.

But the longer-term outlook for Japan's economy may still be bleak even with a quick-fix bailout of ailing banks as consumer sentiment falters, said Tom Benfer, director of foreign exchange at Bank of Montreal. The yen may have to weaken to stimulate export-driven growth, he added. "We don't really want that but there may not be any way out of it," Benfer said. "For as much as car companies complain, the administration may have to take a step back."

Against the mark, the dollar weakened slightly under the weight of mark purchases against the yen. The mark was also supported after Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer said the central bank would not hesitate to act on interest rates before the end of next year.

Some market participants expect European interest rates to rise in convergence ahead of the start of the planned single European currency in January, 1999.In other trading, the dollar was slightly lower at 1.4102 Swiss francs from 1.4112 on Thursday and off at Canadian $1.4182 from C$1.4206. The British pound was higher at $1.6933, from $1.6882.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/DOLLAR.html

Allen ( USA ) : Thank you for the Kitco security post. I just checked my IP address, and it changes every time I log in -- dynamic, I guess.

ANOTHER: Thank you for saying you will keep posting. The Kitco world is now alot quieter with the new passwords, but we do not want to discourage those who wish to be anonymous.

Now I really do need to do the chores for my real boss.

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - A group of computer and telephone companies charged Friday that Microsoft was using

"extortion" in its battle with Netscape Communications Corp. for dominance in selling browsers for the World Wide Web.

Edward Black, head of the Computer and Communications Industry Association, said Microsoft, whose operating sytem is

used on 90 percent of personal computers, was telling computer makers they must use its Web brower "or else."

"It has elements of extortion," Black told reporters at a news conference.

http://www.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/INTERNET-MICROSOFT.html

Friday November 21, 4:15 pm Eastern Time

Yamaichi closure "just rumor" - Japanese official

NEW YORK, Nov 21 ( Reuters ) - A finance official at the Japanese embassy in Washington called ``just rumor'' press reports that Yamaichi Securities Co ( 8602.T ) may ask the Ministry of Finance ( MOF ) to coordinate its liquidation.

However, the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, did say that Yamaichi was in financial trouble due to the sharp drop in Japanese stock values. He added that the brokerage firm does need to raise fresh funds.

"To be honest, they need help," the official said.

Late on Friday, press reports circulated that Yamaichi, one of Japan's four largest brokerages, was expected to ask the MOF to coordinate the liquidation of the corporation.

JTF: How did you check that it changed?

There is also a little-publicized agreement announced a

couple of years ago in which the Federal Reserve

agreed to purchase the U.S. securities from Japan if

Tokyo had to sell. Good idea - except for the fact that

such a move would be extraordinarily inflationary and

would cause both the stock and bond markets to

suffer a stroke.

ASIA'S TIN CUP NATIONS

SEND $O$ TO UNCLE SAM

BY JOHN CRUDELE

LET'S see if I have this Asian thing straight.

South Korea is now having trouble keeping its

financial system afloat. So the country has decided to

take its tin cup to Japan and the United States because

it needs, some believe, about $150 billion.

Now, $150 billion isn't much when you compare it

with the size of the universe. Or with the age of the

earth. But in financial terms, even I'm impressed with a

figure that is more than three times the worth of even

the wealthiest person among us. And that's just what

South Korea needs now, not tomorrow or a year from

now.

The problen, of course, is that Japan has troubles of its

own. Big troubles. Earlier this week one of Japan's

largest banks, Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Ltd., went

belly-up and required hundreds of billions of yen from

the government for its closure. And Tokyo is now

debating whether to use public funds to close other

failing institutions.

What about the U.S.' help? Well, we've certainly had

an emotional tie with the Koreans for more than 40

years. But we don't have the money either.

There's some $40 billion sitting in the Exchange

Stabilization Slush Fund, but we've already committed

billions of that to Mexico to bail out Goldman Sachs'

investors, and to Indonesia, so it won't let Clinton pal

Charlie Trie speak to Congress.

And there are plenty of other needy countries waiting

on our soup line. There's Thailand, the site of a major

recent stock market slide. And Malaysia, which

played follow-the-leader. Then there's China, of

course, which could probably use a few bucks just in

case Chinton chum John Huang was thinking about

coming back for his day before congressional

investigators looking into campaign financing no-no's.

South Korea might be thinking that there is more slush

money where the ESF came from. But, alas, Congress

hasn't been too cooperative with Bill Clinton lately and

has already turned down a contribution to the

International Monetary Fund, the only other source of

ready cash for current downtrodden nations.

Don't get the wrong impression. Japan isn't flat broke.

You've read a lot about Japanese frugality, and those

stories are true.

It has plenty of money invested in the United States.

And therein lies the biggest problem of them all for our

country. The time is coming very near when Japan

must decide whether to cash in some or all of the

$200 billion worth of U.S. Treasury securities it holds.

In order to be able to afford to help Korea - which of

course is of strategic military interest to Tokyo - Japan

must cash in U.S. bonds. To come up with the cash to

bail out its own banks, Japan must cash in U.S. bonds.

To get its economy back on its feet, Japan must cash

in U.S. bonds.

The bottom line is: Japan's kind and thoughtful

investment in Washington's debt years ago is now

becoming a problem. It's great to give to worthy

causes like the spend-crazy U.S., but sometimes

charity has to begin at home. And Japan's charity is

starting to look homeward.

What if the Japanese started selling their billions in

U.S. government securities? Quite frankly, America's

financial markets would collapse. Interest rates would

mimic early 1970s action, when borrowing costs were

rising a percentage point a day.

In fact, there would be few buyers for all those bonds

until rates became high enough to start draining money

- lots of money - out of the stock market. So we'd

have to rescue the bond market and keep rates at

levels that would allow the country's economy to

function by sacrificing the stock market.

There is also a little-publicized agreement announced a

couple of years ago in which the Federal Reserve

agreed to purchase the U.S. securities from Japan if

Tokyo had to sell. Good idea - except for the fact that

such a move would be extraordinarily inflationary and

would cause both the stock and bond markets to

suffer a stroke.

And what I've just described is the so-call "bright

side." That assumes that all the bailouts actually work.

And it assumes that the turmoil in the Far East doesn't

hurt the profits of American corporations too much.

And that Asian countries don't suddenly feel inclined

to dump their products on American consumers at

unfair prices.

Which gets me to my point: Why did the stock market

rise so sharply these past two days with all this going

on? The answer: stupidity.

http://www.nypostonline.com/business/1009.htm

GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC.

REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 11/18/97 |

-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE

NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS

--------------------------|----------------|-----------------|----------------

LONG | SHORT |SPREADING| LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

( CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES ) OPEN INTEREST: 214,353

COMMITMENTS

13,705 64,354 14,987 140,488 92,443 169,180 171,784 45,173 42,569

CHANGES FROM 11/11/97 ( CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -412 )

4,871 -4,390 -1,442 -6,869 2,094 -3,440 -3,738 3,028 3,326

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS

6.4 30.0 7.0 65.5 43.1 78.9 80.1 21.1 19.9

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY ( TOTAL TRADERS: 119 )

22 43 9 35 43 60 93

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/cmxsf.htm

Oh well, I decided not to discuss this issue on this forum, looks like a futile effort resulting only in accusations that I belong to a doom?oom camp ( which is not true at all ) and this would have a very negative impact on my professional reputation. Just a few numbers for you optimists based on an industry wide surveys with focus on large business and government entities which may have impact on your personal well being

Industry//ahead//on schedule//behind schedule

Insurance________10% 60% 30%
Banking__________5% 65% 30%
Public Utilities______3% 47% 50%
Health care________3% 46% 51%
State Government___3% 45% 52%
Urban Government__2% 30% 68%

Best Case for the US is estimated that 85% of systems will be repaired 15% will be missed. Distribution varies across the industry - Urban Government will be the worse ( no money no resources ) however it has a biggest impact on your daily life. If 20% if left behind, we are facing possible recession.

As far as SAP goes, show me one large company able to implement SAP in less than two years and Ill buy that bridge from you. Not so simple. BTW we dont have till Dec 1999. You better be done by mid 99 ( some of your application deal with post 2000 dates, FY starts for many companies much earlier and associated accounting kicks in, etc. ) , and if you ever tried to put large systems into production you know that it takes more than a few days after you finished development.

As I said, I wont argue, I cant, and besides its getting tiring.

Puetz and Kitco,to be evenhanded, here is the best summarized case for a Bear market that I've seen anywhere in print. From a Non analyst / non economist, but more well reasoned a Bearish case than I've found anywhere.

http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/newsletter-33

You Gloom & Doomers will luv it! Puetz, you have new material for your newsletter now ( though I know you have been preaching some of this stuff )

But

there's an even grander strategy in the offing. It now seems that Asia and the G-7 have agreed to a

new IMF-administered plan that would significantly broaden the approach to crisis management.

That's precisely the drift of the just negotiated "Manila plan" which apparently is to be presented for

formal ratification by Asian leaders at the upcoming APEC summit in Vancouver. Significantly, this

plan would replace the reactive approach that has long been deployed to deal with country-specific

crises after they reached the point of no return. The new approach is to be framed around an

IMF-sponsored short-term lending facility that would be aimed at preventing future crises. Particularly

encouraging is the pro-active involvement of the United State in setting up this framework; as

evidenced by ongoing missions in Asia by high-level Treasury and Fed officials, the US finally seems

to have grasped the severity of this crisis.

http://www.ms.com/gef.html

November 20, 1997
Dollar likely to suffer as imports push down trade surplus

OTTAWA ( CP ) - Canadian consumers and businesses are on a foreign buying spree that threatens to send the dollar down and interest rates up, some economists said Thursday. Imports hit a record $24.175 billion in September, Statistics Canada reported, up 16 per cent in the first nine months of the year.

Exports, while strong, increased by a more modest 6.2 per cent and levelled off at $25.044 billion in September. Canada was left with a merchandise trade surplus of $869 million in September, a sharp decline from August's $1.2 billion surplus and the lowest level since December 1993.

Merchandise trade comprises one part of Canada's current account, which
measures exchanges with foreign countries in goods, services, investment
Income and other transfers.

Last year, a ballooning trade surplus gave Canada its first current account surplus in 12 years.

Jeff Rubin of Wood Gundy called the '96 surplus, "a cyclical mirage and
not likely to return."

"You'll see upward pressures on prices in the country because your dollar
is weaker." While Pyle believes this inevitably means the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates to bolster the dollar, Rubin isn't so sure. Raising rates would be a tough sell both politically and economically, he said, in an economy with nine per cent unemployment and inflation at 1.5 per cent. " ( Rather ) , it's just further color on the fact the Canadian dollar is going to remain very weak," said Rubin.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Trade.html

World leaders PANIC...coming up next. Look at it this way, gold has already appreciated significantly versus a significant number of the world's currencies ( as they have depreciated versus the dollar ) , if I was to move my gold to these countries I could buy a good many more things than before the late 90's DEPRESSION ( as it is coming to be known ) .
Slowly but surely gold ( for now disguised as the dollar ) is eyeballing each one of these currencies and asking them to measure up. It is the only true measure of finite value everbody agrees upon, soon enough those "great" currencies of the western world will be asked the same question, they are much more vulnerable to this question than before the developing world cruch.

South Korea as the world's 11th largest economy has been shown to be lacking sound financial standing, demonstrating economics doesn't count for squat when your meter rule for counting money is stetched and twisted to suit the current banker/politician. Even the world's largest economy could be found to be lacking for the simple fact that the money changers got it wrong and were comparing apples with oranges. If you can't agree on what is ONE, you can't count and it especially doesn't matter how many rocket scientists you have writing sophisticated derivative trading programs, all the currencies will collapse.

We are only experiencing in this age, on a global scale, what other microcosms have witnessed of the same phenomena inprevious eras, when new trading boundaries are opened up. Who are the western world to tell Asia how to value their currencies, in this light the present squablle is as perfectly understandable as the clamour of a bazaar. The only reassuring fact to prevent this from becoming an all out bloodshed ( still possible mind you ) is that we do have a unit we all agree on, the weight of true gold, as discovered by Archimedes while bathing.

The newly globalised village, who desperately want to trade, share ideas, goods, profits have now only to agree on a unit of account and then we can be the happy family, warming ourselves around the fire of that strange yellow metal.

Hanseatic Corporation

Global Market Strategist Advisory Service

21 November 1997

Summary

Of all the indicators that we watch for signs of inflation, the one that is the most impressively

weak is the Journal of Commerce index of spot raw materials prices with a level of 100 set in

1990. This index presently sits at 103.00 meaning these prices have increased less than half a

percent a year during this decade. That has occurred during one of the longest post-war

expansions on record during which growth was steady if not impressively robust. What this

index might do in a turndown should be giving Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan heartburn. If it is

not, then he is as we have often suspected, looking at the wrong thing.

The dollar is moving up today and our buy indications are solidly intact at this point for the near

and intermediate term time frames. Sterling is moving up with the dollar and is seriously

encroaching on the 3.00 DM level. It looks good for a move over that before year end.

As we have said loudly and often, bonds are all a buy. Even if stocks seem not to be in serious

danger of meltdown, bonds should be able to move to higher ground in the near term.

While the Iraq situation has been defused for the time being, it will undoubtedly re-emerge as a

concern. Globally, the most intense threat to U.S. interests is the violent nature of the

perpetrators of fundamentalist Islam. While this does not necessarily describe the motives and

religious persuasion of Saddam Hussein, he ably fits into this mold when it suits him to gain allies

in the Middle East and Asia. The U.S. did not come out of this last confrontation looking like a

strong-willed world leader, and it is likely that similar challenges will emerge for us to face from

a myriad of geographic locations between now and the end of the century.

Martha Eden

Delphi - Nick ( Aussie ) is here, but now his moniker is "Sharefin"

Its starting to look like Steven Kaplan was right about the bearishness of Pt trading factors recently?

With all due respect to good intentions of good people, I find it
more than difficult to shout with enthusiasm, "I Believe!".
As a small indication of why, I give you the latest entry into the
Paris Club:

http://www.rferl.org/nca/news/1997/09/N.RU.970917151424.html

Russia...as a creditor nation. I obviously missed something somewhere.
Or is it simply that as long as they don't run out of computers into
which they can stuff the "debt that has gone wrong" all will be right?

Ah, yeah. I agree with your assessment in the last post.

Cristal Ball: Thank You for answer and info
Sharefin: If You are really Nick ( Aussie ) , I want to apologize - once I have attacked You for very IMHO bearish "predictions". I do mistakes with charts too. I think, right now charts do not work well. In my opinion, they are for more or less stable bullish or bearish market, but not for short-time forecast when everything is on the move and we really do not know, will the trend change, or not. Of course, market is manipulated, but it always was.

S.C. senator wants president to block Westinghouse sale


Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press

COLUMBIA, S.C. ( November 21, 1997 1:47 p.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) -- U.S. Sen. Ernest Hollings wants the White House to block Westinghouse Electric Corp.'s sale of its $2.2 billion-a-year gas turbine business to Siemens AG of Germany.

Hollings, a South Carolina Democrat, said the technology was developed with $232 million in taxpayer subsidies.

MIRO: There is no point in arguing this issue with any non-believers.
As all of us systems professionals know, one byte of bad data in the wrong place can bring down huge systems, corrupt multiple databases, and cause financial loss and embarasment etc.
Y2K changes the physical sizes of files and databases etc.
Changing old, highly complex systems with bad code takes arduous effort and testing, and is still a highly risky business.
The best current indicator is, qualified programmer rates, which are already shooting thru the roof.
One of my friends who took early retirement, decided to work as a consultant and sent out his CV to 5 firms. All 5 called him back immediately, and one of them hired him over the phone, asking him not to
go to any other interviews. He was offered over 2 X the hourly rate im currently paid.
From the information that I have seen, the rates will soar throughout
1998/99.
I laugh every time I see this issue taken lightly by companies, because these same will beging us to take their money when they realize that they
may longer be in business due to Y2K, on January 01, 2000.
Not to mention the salivating attorneys with Y2K littigation training waiting in the wings.........

Friday November 21, 6:27 pm Eastern Time

Yamaichi says not yet decided on business future

TOKYO, Nov 22 ( Reuters ) - Yamaichi Securities has not yet decided on its business future, including whether to cease operations, a company spokesman said on Saturday.

He said the brokerage planned to hold a news conference about its future on Saturday, but had not decided on a time yet.

Japan's Finance Ministry said that it will brief the press at 10.00 a.m. ( 0100 GMT ) on Saturday about Yamaichi.

I have a friend who is rather deeply into computers, etc. He states U.P.S. Has had a firm working on theirs for quite some time and have completed the task. According to my amigo ups is ready.
I am not sufficiently knowledgeable as to be able to accept this statement without proof. Perhaps you or someone else can help me.
All I want is to know if in fact any firm or agency is TRULY ready. Also how will it ( they ) interface with those who are not??
As a contrarian of more than a quarter century, I should be more knowledgeable I admit. But...I'm not!

Tolerant1: I find it rather charming that they believe they
have a future...

ANOTHER,

I am very happy with your decision to share your Thoughts with the world.

I was the first one to repost together in a Row your first 6 or seven posts.

I am retired,53, and I do not have the vast amount of knowledge you seems to have in the matters of macro economics.I was busy in the air.

I have to rely on the English/French dictionary often to keep following your thoughts.

Please try to write plain and simple so everyone can see as in broad daylight the bridge to cross the Nil..

Many Thanks

Let me get this straight, Yamaichi can't decide:
- whether it's solvent
- if it has a business future
- if it will cease operations
- if it will have a news conference
- where to have a news conference
- what time to have a news conference
- what the topic will be at the news conference
- what planet they currently reside on

Hmmm, I like a broker who can make the hard decisions.......

It was a fairly good day for gold I see. It's bad when we get excited about the metal and the metal stocks not sliding. Basically I'm checking to see if I know my password.

TO ALL;
Just dropped in Friday night to see who is still hanging around
when gold @ $300.YOU GUYS ARE TOUGH.I got some good news and some
bad news. Bad news, will break 300 again shortly to dip to 270-290.
Good news, Its slow here, which is a good sign that goldbugs are
fed up and going broke holding gold shares which indicates blood
is/will be running in the streets shortly.Gold will shoot skyward
shortly after the blood bath.

Mikey

Hey I still got the same handle.Great.

Getting late in Europe... Good nite all

TO tolerant1;
You still here. Everytime I lurk, you're here.You one tough
son-of-a-gun. $400 by Dec 15/97? Hang in there. Someday.
Where's is everyone?

TO Selby;
Hows the weather in TO? Did you read the globe & mail 2-day?
Sorry yesterday?Article on gold.Central banks not selling.

To maintain the present price, central banks must loan into the market the shortfall between supply and demand. To decrease the price further, they must loan even more. As mines close down, they will need to loan even more. Someday, central banks will reach the limit of the gold they will loan. Demand now exceeding supply will cause the GOLD price to rise.

Once Asia collapses totally, there will be a massive move out of U.S. dollars. Some money will move out to help pay for the massive losses in Asia, and other funds will be used to buy factories now selling at a fraction of pre-crash prices. All of Asia will be on sale and money will rush in.

... the only solution being a common world wide currency:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html

I am a newcomer to this site - really enjoy all the the analysis. After much lurking, I thought I would add something which I hope sime find useful......

Came across this "formula" for buying gold stocks - based on relative prices of stocks vs. gold price ( from Gary Smith, who makes his living daytrading stock indexes - profitably -

" One reason I have avoided trading gold from the long side
is my remembrance of a study done several years back by Nelson Freeburg.
Nelson is the proprietor of a monthly newsletter called Formula Research.
Their phone number is 800-720-1080. In the study, Nelson observed that the only time to buy gold is when the Barron's Gold Mining Index divided by Handy and Harman's spot price of gold is 1.40 or below.

Somewhere in my mess of papers, I have Nelson's exhaustive gold forecasting study. Maybe it's time to refresh myself on the intricacies of his excellent work. Although it's been years and years since gold was a buy based on the above described ratio, it's getting closer. The latest reading was 1.56. Still, a major buy could be months away, if ever. That's the problem with a lot of historically valid indicators. Once they are released to the public, they conveniently quit working.

Personally, I think if the ratio does get to 1.40 or lower, it will present a major buying opportunity for gold. Especially if it is coupled with a favorable configuration in the Commitments of Traders Report. But in all likelihood, since so many of us have been patiently waiting for years for a buy signal from the Gold Mining Index ratio, more than likely, gold will bottom with the ratio above 1.40."

Well--- Another reason to buy?
Anyone familiar with this study?
Thanks in advance.
Comments?

a.j.: I don't doubt for a minute that some companies are or are near being Y2K compliant. On the flip side, there are large companies who have not even fully evaluated their needs yet, and are putting the work off as far as possible.
There is already a shortage of qualified programmers, and when these late comers enter the market for 100 or 150 programmers a pop, all hell will break loose. Remember, they must fix their systems, there is no choice in the matter.
You are right that even if you are Y2K compliant, chances are that you interface to one or more outside firms where the data being passed has not yet been upgraded.
I have also heard from my sources that the situation in Europe is far worse than here. On top of that they want to implement the ECU at the same time....good luck - not.

Cheers

Hi Mickey: Its about 40 F here and rainy. Going to be much colder tomorrow--maybe about 20-25 F and it may snow. Didn't read the G&M yesterday and don't know anything to be sorry about.

How are you. The December thing is just gut feel. Nothing more, nothing less. There is much on the table that was not here just a few short weeks ago.

The varied thoughts and opinions are interesting to say the least. I am off to read the latest by John K. at gold-eagle.

...heard on CNN Moneyline- US subsidiary told to 'liquidate' or square off positions. Could that be US stocks?

Japan MOF to brief press on Yamaichi at 0100 GMT

TOKYO, Nov 22 ( Reuters ) - Japan's Finance Ministry said on Saturday that it will hold a news conference at 10.00 a.m. ( 0100 GMT ) concerning Yamaichi Securities Ltd ( 8602.T ) .

It did not comment on the content.

Welcome to our community! Your contribution is much appreciated! I believe you are correct- the time to buy is at hand. I predict GCZ7 will get to 320 in the next 10 trading days. Silver- next resistance areas after 5.50 ( we hit 5.49 today ) are 5.75, then 6.00, then 6.25, then 6.80 :- ) Platinum is finishing up a basing pattern in the 380-400 area.

TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Struggling under the weight of both market-induced

and self-inflicted problems, Yamaichi Securities Co. on Friday

decided to submit to the Ministry of Finance a request to cease

operations, The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reports in its Saturday morning

edition.

The fourth of Japan's Big Four securities firms, Yamaichi has more

than 3 trillion yen in total liabilities, and its collapse would be Japan's

largest postwar corporate failure.

The move was apparently sparked by continuous withdrawals of

Yamaichi's client assets, which totaled about 24 trillion yen as of the

end of September 1997. In order to ensure full repayment of

Yamaichi's clients, the Bank of Japan plans to extend nonsecured,

unrestricted emergency financing to the brokerage.

Yamaichi's fragile financial condition has been at the center of market

attention in recent days. Once Moody's Investors Service

downgraded the firm's debt on Friday to below-investment-grade

status, Yamaichi lost its ability to attract capital, undermining the

possibility of survival as an independent concern. The brokerage had

been holding discussions with a number of foreign financial institutions

in recent days about a possible alliance and infusion of capital.

How is this done - what exactly would RR and/or AG do to devalue the dollar? I'm missing something -

I have been reading the Another posts with interest and have been giving some thought to the volume issue vs which market controls price. It seems that a conclusion that could be arrived at is that the commodity market ( ie COMEX ) sets the price of gold and the monetary market ( ie LBMA ) shadows it -if it were any other way the monitary vaue of gold would set its price, also LBMA seems to operate with a sizeable percentage of paper gold which would allow it to operate independantly and with little interest in the instananious price of gold but operating with a longer term understanding of its value. I suggest this only to prompt discussion since I believe that this is fundamental to understanding if there are really two markets and why price may be set on the smaller market. Yes I am the previous poster under this handle that suggested gold would be at 300 and that the seeming manipulation of this market was not going to go away overnight
thanks in advance

Isn't it amazing that the powers always release bad news on Friday after the markets are closed. I beleive that it is also a looooong weekend in
Japan Co.

To All: As a relatively newcomer to investing I
admit to not being sophisticated in matters financial.
I even admit to having invested in gold shares this year,
however, I am now really becoming confused.

- Last week a large Japanese bank goes under.

- Today, it looks as though the fourth largest
brokerage house has had it.

- Today, the DJIA gains 101 points.

So now I'm thinking if next week in Japan two
more banks fold and three brokerages go broke
maybe the Dow will rise 500 points.

I'm I beginning to get it Yet????

All comments welcomed...

http://www.digisys.net/futures/charts is the place. US Dollar looks ripe for a drubbing by ALL major currencies ( JY, DM, SF, BP, CD ) Yes, even the Canuck Buck! US 30 yr Bonds are extremely overbought and into historical resistance area; thus, very vulnerable to any bad news, such as US dollar devaluation. Stocks are very high, but I still don't see DJIA breaking below 7000 for at least another 5-6 weeks, courtesy of Plunge Protection Team.

Jtaher - It is good to have new and 'reasoned' blood here. Thank you for the good tid bit. If you come across the exhaustive study please print some or all of it, depending on the length, no? Many at kitco can benefit from it. And thank you for not saying that gold is a BUY. I too think that the time is getting closer but not yet here...as do many other old and new bears. The ratio 1.56 is still a bit off from the 1.40. I think this time it must be there and not 'near' there. Please keep us informed as to the current ratios. It will be VERY interesting to see what that ratio is when the bull starts to kick some butt. Welcome to the family.

Crystal Ball ( s ) :-oh no... - you had better be careful with your 'predictions'. Remember what happened to your last 'prediction'. It was a little more wild than just 320 in 10 days...remember??.....you bug you... ;- )

away...to open a delicious chilly one

elikinhisbeerchilly

It would be easy for AG and RR to devalue the dollar. All they have to do is say they feel the dollar has moved too far up against the other currencies. Have you noticed how major CB ( central bank ) pronouncements, ( such as by Fed, BOJ, Bundesbank, ) instantaneously cause the speculators to shift to the other side of the boat, because they're afraid of CB intervention to validate those same pronouncements?

Kimberly-Clark Corp. said it will fire about 5,000 employees, or 7 percent of its workforce, to boost earnings as competition forces

it to cut prices for Kleenex, Kotex and its other consumer products. The Dallas-based company plans to take a fourth-quarter

charge of $590 million, or $1.06 a share, to reduce staff and close or shrink as many as 18 manufacturing plants worldwide. The

moves are expected to save $200 million annually by 2000 as the company seeks ways to meet its goal of doubling earnings per

share from operations between 1995 and 2000. The company earned $2.49 a share in 1996, and is expected to earn $2.87 in 1998,

according to IBES International Inc.

Good evening...what has been going on in the silver market??..Ive been away for a few days....

I forget. What did I predict?

Saturday News via Australia

Delta Gold/Placer Dome stake possibly first round of Gold Industry Rationalisation
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business2.html

A quick history lesson shows that booms do bust - The Maverick
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/market/markets2.html

Humble Seoul faces the economic music
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world2.html

Need for Stability tops APEC Agenda
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world3.html

Beijing calls for urgent overhaul
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world4.html

EU political turmoil
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world9.html

Recovery in Korea or Japan Not Close, Says Westpac Inv. Manager
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business1.html

National Australia Bank paints gloomy picture for 1998
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business4.html

Korea casts long shadow over Australian economy
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business5.html

Korea & Japan going under may spell Global Deflation
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/perspective/perspective4.html

Asia Doomsayers emerge in the US ( Ed Yardini/Henry Kaufman )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world2.html

Wake Up! This shock in Global!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world3.html

Liquidators move in on Japanese Department Store Chain in Hong Kong
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world4.html

The heat is rising over Executive Packages
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/invest/invest2.html

From this evening's comments by S.J. Kaplan ( one of the most informative sites on the web at http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html )

"Total gold mining equity option U.S. daily volume is moderately above normal levels while put-call ratios are very substantially above normal levels, with the total dollar value of puts exceeding the total dollar value of calls traded. Only a small percentage of this activity was in the expiring November options. This is EXTREMELY BULLISH."

YAMAICHI SECURITIES - 4th largest securities firm in Japan throws in the towel - BUSTED!! - KAPUTT!!!- BANKRUPT!!!!

A Nippon financial giant has fallen - it has requested from the Ministry of Finance to be allowed cease operations. Therefore, it must dump all positions.

If forced to shut-down, Yamaichi Securities must liquidate all positions. HOW MUCH US T-Bonds does it have in portfolio??? See what the ultimate will be:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/thai.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

BOT and the baht

Fed economist sees lessons in Thailand's currency crisis

By Tom Murphy CBS MarketWatch Fri Nov 21 19:48:00 1997 Also on CBS MarketWatchNews Index NewsWatch StockWatch

SAN FRANCISCO ( CBS.MW ) -- This year's 60 percent plunge of the Thai baht against the U.S. dollar and the ensuing crisis in Asian markets offer several lessons for policymakers, according to a Fed economist. To start, Ramon Moreno, senior economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, questions the wisdom of pegging the currencies of emerging countries to the U.S. dollar. Moreno said the Bank of Thailand's ( B.O.T. ) efforts to maintain the peg in the months before the crisis contributed to the crisis.

"It is apparent in hindsight that this dilemma could have been avoided by allowing the currency to appreciate during the earlier period of capital inflows, when there was no threat of sudden loss in

Comex gold warehouse stocks were DOWN 3,194 oz today to 495,403 oz , all of it from 'eligible' stocks which now stand at 234,230 oz, enough for a little over one ounce per comex contract!

Comex silver warehouse stocks FELL 359,820 oz today to 126,894,426 oz while silver jumped in price today because of worry that there is only enough silver to cover one-half of the outstanding silver contracts for December.

Sorry I did not post yesterday's numbers, I was out in the wild wonderful West staking more silver claims for my company. I do practice what I preach.

485.43
-20.64
-4.08%

Agreed, that would lower dollar but I call that "jawboning" rather than devaluing - the ends are the same in theory

With the staggering woes that have beset the Asian Tigers as
of late we may well need to expect a whole series of bailouts
for the Pacific economies akin to the 1980s bailout wave. And
the Fed sits poised to monetize new loans as needed. So there
is an endless stream of new debt that the Fed will be
monetizing into the foreseeable future on a grand scale.

All the while the central banks are shedding large portions of gold reserves in their on-going war on gold they are simultaneously weakening their own positions in terms of fungible, highly liquid assets.

A collapse in the stock markets and a run on bank deposits due to a global financial crisis could deal them a severe blow.

An excellent DETAILED review of Central Bank folly may be seen at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/voss112097.html

Arden: Still expecting a new near term low, but lookin Real good for early next year.
Gold shares probably to bottom in December due to tax loss selling - this year should be especialy bad due to heavy losses in Gold shares to lock in against record profits in other equities. May present an extrordinary buying opportunity?
Steady as she goes.

November 21, 1997
Axworthy says currency crisis brings workers rights to the fore

VANCOUVER ( CP ) - Human rights also means rights for workers and the currency crisis facing Asia is proving that, says Foreign Affairs Minister Lloyd Axworthy. "The currency crisis has to have a greater human impact," he said Friday between bilateral discussions with the Chinese and Japanese delegations. "It's not just a financial institution problem or a banking problem. It's an employment and workers problem because they carry the brunt."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/NationalTicker/CANOE-wire.APEC-Human-Rights.html

November 21, 1997
Anti-APEC protesters crowd key APEC meeting site

VANCOUVER ( CP ) - Anti-APEC protesters have set up a camp within a few metres of the site where 18 Pacific Rim leaders - including U.S. President Bill Clinton - are to meet Tuesday.

On Friday, a lone tent stood on a hill outside the great hall of the Museum of Anthropology at the University of British Columbia, about eight
kilometres west of downtown Vancouver.

On Monday, the area is to become a "secure zone" - a day before leaders
gather at the complex as part of the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation
meeting. RCMP are monitoring the situation, but it's too soon to say if protesters will be arrested, Cpl. John Buis, spokesman for a security effort involving 3,000 Mounties, said Friday.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/NationalTicker/CANOE-wire.APEC-Protest.html

November 21, 1997
President's APEC clout dampened by lame-duck image at home

VANCOUVER ( CP ) - Domestic squabbling has left Bill Clinton hobbled with the epithet "lame duck," but if he limps into the APEC summit, Canada
will be left to fill the breach, analysts say. "There's a serious question mark over whether the United States can deliver on any APEC commitments," says Gordon Ritchie, an Ottawa trade consultant and a chief negotiator for Canada during the NAFTA talks.

"There clearly is no real consensus about further trade liberalization in the United States and Clinton hasn't demonstrated the leadership to force that."

Also this month, the Republicans balked at paying the United Nations $926 million in back dues and also refused an administration request for $3.5 billion for the International Monetary Fund.

"If the president can't get the trade bill passed, what else can't he do?" asked the Washington Post.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/NationalTicker/CANOE-wire.APEC-Clinton.html

We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the Poor Mans Gold -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year Goldbugs Weekly Comment.

In Cormiers report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! -posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Lets capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%
Silver Standard ( SSO ) ...............UP 57%
International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%
First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) ..........UP 86%
United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%
Clifton Mining ( CFB ) ................Down 4%

Thats an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! - the current daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug613.html

Worse case scenario, financial meltdown... could it be possible that workers would disembrace capitalism in favor or socialism?

What do Ollie North, Bill Mahre ( politically incorrect ) , and Andrea Mitchell ( greenspan's wife ) have in common?? They are all on Jeopardy right now. It is a gas.


greenspan....you old dog you......


away...to win the daily double


I am an old poster with a new handle. I previously posted under the name "Milhouse", but have decided from now on to use the initials of my real name ( when I first started posting on Kitco back in Feb someone else was already using the handle "sas", so I chose a different tag ) . With the advent of passwords Im taking the opportunity of claiming "sas" as my own.

IMO, the effect of the Asian financial crisis on the US will be inflationary, for the following reasons :

1. The FOMC did not act to increase interest rates at its latest meeting, despite high levels of money supply growth and signs of an over-heating economy. Greenspan subsequently admitted that the crisis in Asia played a part in the decision to leave rates unchanged. Deciphering "Greenspeak", this means that the situation in Asia was THE reason rates were not increased. The maintenance of artificially low rates now will lead to higher inflation in the future.

2. Japan may be forced to liquidate US Govt debt. Large sales of US bonds by Japan could cause a collapse in bond prices and create a big problem for a US govt which has financed most of its debt on a short term basis. Any sizeable sale of US bonds is therefore likely to be purchased and monetised by the Fed. The more US debt sold by Japan, the greater will be the increase in US money supply.

3. The reduction in Asian asset values will generate fear of deflation. The greater the fear, the more liquidity the Fed is likely to inject into the US economy and the greater the resultant inflation will be.

4. Economic contraction throughout Asia will reduce the demand for US exports in that region. At the same time, cheap Asian products will take increased market share in the US. The net effect will be a reduction in the earnings of US corporations, which is a big problem for a stock market where price/earnings ratios remain at very high levels in the expectation of continued strong earnings growth with low inflation. A substantial drop in the US stock market at some point during the next few months is therefore inevitable. The reaction of the US monetary authorities will almost certainly be to add liquidity. The amount of new money created will be even greater as the Fed purchases and monetises non-performing loans issued by private banks.

The above represents a bullish situation for gold, although some major short term negatives remain. In addition to impending European CB sales in the lead up to EMU, the Asian financial crisis and associated IMF bail outs increase the risk that the IMF will sell its gold reserves.

Cheers, sas ( formerly known as Milhouse )

sas
good to see you back, and thanks for your take. My Question is how long before US overproduction would kick in? Given reduced Exports and cheap Asian imports?

Over thinking the gold market is a prelude to disaster in my opinion. Silver is moving up and it will go higher. Watch yourselves and take a profit and do not push the envelope.

Gold will jump, and make a startling move in a day or two when it does. I think that world wide people are nervous. Except for the blue-sky idiots in the US. They too will get slapped in the face with the current news. But most likely they will get burned in a scenario of the worst one-day drop in history or the worst two-day combined drop.

The United States shall shortly be seen for what it is, the biggest debtor in the world. While we pontificate, the world watches our debt escalate. It won't be long before the world starts to ask where are "we" the US getting the money from.

Use silver profits to accumulate gold.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

WASHINGTON ( November 21, 1997 7:35 p.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) -- Nervous
hand-wringing began long before the nation's great experiment with welfare reform started in earnest nearly two years ago..........................
........................................................................
Survey hints at jobs shortage for former welfare
recipients.

Where will the needed jobs come from?

How will new job-seekers from the city go to work in the employment-rich suburbs?

Who will pay for child care and health benefits for those exiting the welfare rolls?

"For the first time since the Depression, we are going to see huge numbers of people without any subsistence at all. We can't let that happen," said Philadelphia Mayor Edward Rendell, who discussed the survey at the U.S. Conference of Mayors office Friday.............
....................................................................
Detroit expects a shortfall of 75,303 jobs. Philadelphia will fall 53,400 jobs short and Seattle would need another 28,522 jobs to meet the demand of employment seekers, according to the survey..............................
..................................................................
Other cities that will fall short include Boston with a shortage of 9,990 jobs, St. Paul, Minn., with 9,682, St. Louis with 6,734 and New Orleans with 6,763.........................................
......................................................................
Remedies suggested by the survey include increased federal aid to help with job training and placement and transportation costs.......
.....................................................................

Though the reform package provides additional funds to states to help people with child care costs, it is not enough, according to a majority of the cities. In the survey, 71 percent of cities reported that the state reimbursement rate doesn't cover the average cost of full-day center-based child care..................................

The survey also showed that in the first six months of this year, requests for emergency food assistance by legal immigrants who no longer qualify for food stamps had increased in 75 percent of the surveyed cities. The greatest increase came in St. Louis, where food requests were up 50 percent. .......................
By PAUL SHEPARD, The Associated Press

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

For some reason I keep thinking that the reason production shifted offshore to Asia et al was low labor costs. The reason the labor costs were low was because workers could afford to work for low wages because they did no have huge amounts of debt to service. A north american worker could not afford to work for sixty cents an hour and pay off a hundred thousand dollar mortgage and other borrowings. When I look at the debt induced crisis over there, I see no reason why a similar occurance in a more developed ( overborrowed ) region would not be an order of magnatude worse.

Crunch -- Use the obvious tool, INFLATE.

FWIW, I ran a y2k check problem on my 'puter, which is a 486 using a 1994 version of the Phoenix ROM BIOS older than millions of LAN servers now in use. It passed without a hitch in DOS, Windows 3.1 MS Word, MS Works, MS MOney, all 1994 versions. Which leads me to believe that the y2k shouldn't affect small biz. as much as is worried about.

I certainly do not have the background, nor the education to develop some of the outstanding things I read here and elswhere.

There is a huge economic factor that has to be addressed IMHO. The illegal money stuffed into numbered accounts and vaults all over the world. Somehow this money has to be moved into something of value before it gets devalued.

A very real and never mentioned facet of the world economy. Count on it.

miro buddy, don't let the likes of karlito,lgb or y2k get you down. The true value of this forum is its ability to attract many differing views.
There are numerous lurkers like myself whom enjoy the discourse, besides your comments are as logical as many post and often less repetitive than
vronsky's goldeagle re-posts. regards.....

Is there anyone who knows whether the postpresidential election year effect on gold prices is valid when the president is a Demokrat and the Senate Republican?
If so, there's going to be a whale of a rally before March 1st!

what is THE first and only commandment of
successful investors?

what is low and what is high?

why would ANYBODY want to buy ANYTHING that is at,
or close to, historical highs?

the high desert holds the key as this is where the
future task-masters have congregated to plan your
future......

it will be just as they would have it.......

the chips will fly tonight when the black-jack tables
of vegas scream their cry of angst as the smoke-signals
muddle the minds of the dealers and pit-bosses....

cherokee!; ) roaming-the-city-of-lights-and-vice----for-the-good-of-all!; )

Much of the SE Asian debt was not spent on infrastructure development but rather on grandiose white elephants or subsidies and grants and nepotism. The infrastructures are woeful compared with the "developed" world. One does not need to travel far from the Larger SE Asian cities to find oneself in a thatched village, perhaps electricity - if so likely unreliable, perhaps but unlikely running water and sewerage, phones, all the infrastructure we take for granted. Outside the cities, life gets hard quickly, who romanced a cow and and half acre the other day? This, my friends, is Asia, the real Asia, virtually unchangeed in a milleniium....The Asia that will soon start to hurt from the betrayal by their bankers and city dwellers..
I wonder what the effect on the Web will be on the citizens of S E Asia during these times? How will it be used??

Massive currencies devaluations and stock market crashes! Absolute financial chaos reigns in South East Asia - This is spilling over into Japan, Australia, Europe and the US of A. Furthermore, Japanese Banks have accounted for 90% of foreign bank lending in Hong Kong. Not surprisingly in the morning of November 10th, there began a run on a Hong Kong bank... this could become contagious across Asia. Hong Kong is known for having the strongest banks in Asia. SO if there are runs on Hong Kong banks, then we can only imagine what will happen elsewhere... and the consequential ramifications for all the economies in Asia - and eventually the rest of the world.

A Financial Tsunami is Looming in Land of SETTING Sun. What inevitably follows will be the total collapse of their banking system. Japan will indeed be forced to dump US T-Bonds in order to defend the home economy. Subsequently, they will buy gold as they fight for economic and financial survival - evaluate for yourself:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html

Aurator - I expect that the effects of cheap Asian imports and reduced export earnings by US companies will be evident by Q1 98.
Cheers, sas

The equities markets in the US are in the Kubler-Ross equivalent of massive denial with respect to the Asian liquidity implosion. I wonder how much bad news has to be absorbed before they react in a semi-rational manner.

To sas & vronsky re: your 22:31 & 23:07 posts, respectively: Under your scenarios on deflation/inflation, would platinum be treated as strictly an industrial use metal and hence lag in following Gold on any price movement up or would it be recognized, eventually, for its intrinsic 'flip-side' as a pm?

Rumor has it,America was bought,

It's the Golden Christmas for which it had sought,

Although it wanted the whole d*mn lot,

It was considered " surely we'll soon be caught ".

For freedom,love of country,was what they said,

Give us gold,give us guns,it won't go to our heads,

But the greed and the power,oh it tastes so good,

How can we stop,aren't we understood?

No!! said the planet,we understand you not,

We wish to live in peace,but our battles are fought.

Learn to live globally,for alone you will fade,

Is was not for America this planet was made.

So too the dollar will be put in it's place,

Gold's reign of the planet,regardless of race

To Europe,to Asia,to North And to South,

The EMU,AMU,NAMU is coming!

Being shouted from mouths.

No longer God's children will need THIS numbered paper,

The EMU,AMU,NAMU will foil this caper.

With Gold as the standard for all to address,

The planet will never relive this d*mn mess.

Copyright@HepMeMoney_Hmm

Asian trees must not grow to the heavens like they do in the USA.

sas-totally agree with your analysis.

For the record, since few people asked recently what the money supply growth rates were:

As of October 6,97

1. M2 rose 5.6 % over the forth quarter base

2. M3 rose 8.4 % over the forth quarter base

3. M3 rose 12.7 % !!!!!! year over year basis

4. Commercial and industrial loans posted 11.5 % increase in September

5. Real estate loans rose 7.8 % in september

Given the fact that inflation is still a monetary phenomenon the accelerating trend in money supply indicates that inflation may???? be ahead.
However, it is possible that we may be slipping into a severe deflation due to many factors present in the world's economies and the current money supply growth explosion is just a temporary abberation. The over-production capacity and namely the world's debt could be the reasons. The debt is inherently deflationary and once the deflationary mindset is established no paper presses can reverse it. Once deflation rages full force the political solution will be to inflate us out of it. If this scenario plays out, it would be at this point to start buying gold with all the cash available since hyper-inflation may be possible.

On the other hand one can not make judgement about what may happen based on what the facts are. It seems to me that the new world order has repealed many economic laws. We call debt paper assets, major bank failures are greeted by markets rising/gold falling, IMF ( where the hell do they get all this money?? ) is ready with unlimited billions $$ to bail out anyone and everyone willing to loose economic independence, etc...

I keep reading where the central banks are driving down the price of gold with sales, real and threatened, and this will dampen this noble metal for awhile to come. What this analysis fails to consider is that these governments will quickly shift their desire to stockpile gold when financial crisis hits their country and they seek stability. You do not hear about Asian countries threatening to sell their gold supply, only their U.S. Treasury supply.

You also do not hear our fed threatening to sell gold because Alan Greenspan is a goldbug at heart. He has shifted his personal money out of equities because he sees the writing on the wall. It would look pretty bad for him to buy gold and then have our country have a currency crisis with a sharp increase in gold with him as the fed chairman.

Gold right now is seen as a non-performing asset to most central banks. So long as this is the case then the only demand for gold is jewelry. When trade friction and protectionism rear their ugly heads because of the disparity in competitive currency valuations, central banks will once again seek gold for their portfolios to gain competitive balance sheet credibility for currency stabilization. This is the demand for gold, now missing, which will equalize the current supply and allow prices to once again rise.

As it stands, with central banks having a low value for real asset portfolio strength, jewelry demand is seriously below the quantity available to the market.

Again, it is all perception.

Steve