Hope you don't mind me quoting an excerpt from your terrific site, The Privateer ( Gold Page ) http://www.the-privateer.com but I found this quote so graphic and compelling, I felt I had to share:

"There is a classic old cartoon from Warner Bros which puts all of it in a nutshell. In one of the scenes, the character is standing on a branch high up in a tree with a saw in his hands. He proceeds to saw off the branch he is standing on. What happens? Simple, the tree falls down, leaving the character smiling happily while the branch hovers in mid air. "See" - he says - "we can do anything in a cartoon."

In real life, things are different. A group of men get together and sign some official documents. With that, a book keeping entry appears in the ledgers of some hard-pressed banks. Presto, the "debt" is no more. According to modern economics, these things don't only happen in cartoons any more."

If we deflate along with the rest of the world, borrowers will be crushed as their wages ( based upon the price of the goods their company sells ) are deflated without a corresponding defaltion of their mortgages, credit cards, national debt, etc. Massive bankruptcies if the fed does not create more money to support the dollar. If they do support the dollar by printing more, inflation and interest rates will rise which will choke off the economy as no one could afford the juice on their loans.

If the high interest rates did not kill us then the competitive disadvantage against deflated economies would choke off exports and domestic production would also be disadvantaged. Jobs would continue to flow out of the U.S.. Investment capital would also flow to the deflated economies after they stablized.

It looks like the fed has finally run out of options.

Steve

1857 USofA Depression. Lincoln issued his call for volunteers. More than fifty per cent of the nation's Northern working force was on the battlefield.

The dying began at Bull Run July 1861, with a terrible Union defeat. It continued for four years until more than 600,000 young men, mostly workers and farmers, had been killed and more than 400,000 had been wounded, maimed, crippled, and burned.

It continued at Fair Oaks, Gaines' Mill, Malvern Hill, Fort Wagner, Fredericksburg, Fort Donelson, Murfreesboro, Perryville, Vicksburg, Chattanooga; in 2,400 battles which have received the honor of names; in thousands of crossroads skirmishes and chance encounters where men were killed but which never received the recognition of designation.

Trade Union papers of the time were edged in black, issue after issue carrying casualty lists of fallen brothers.

When the Draft Act was passed in 1863 Morgan purchased a young man to go to war in his stead as he would purchase a sack of flour. The price for a substitute was $300. Morgan's action in buying a substitute was neither illegal nor unusual, it being provided in the Draft Act itself that substitutes could be purchased.

As Amer Moore lay dying, young J. Pierpont Morgan, magnificently whole and completely healthy, stood in his Wall Street office, calculating the profit he would make from his speculation in gold. There had been another Union defeat, which, by depressing the nation's currency, would bring him a pretty penny since it had driven up the price of his hoarded gold.


In 1868 the USofA Federal government passed an eight-hour law for workers employed by it. Six states also enacted legislation providing for the eight-hour day. It soon became apparent that the laws were only political demagogy in statute form, containing so many loopholes that they were, as they were meant to be, impossible of enforcement.

This great demonstration for the eight-hour day in the United States was not forgotten. "In 1888 the American Federation of Labor....voted to continue the eoght-hour movement, fixing **May 01, 1890,** as the time for action. The following year leaders of the organized labor movement in various countries met in Paris to form an international association of working people.

After hearing reports of what had happened in America, they voted to support the eight-hour fight and designated **May 01 1890**, for an international eight-hour day struggle.

On that day workers all over Europe showed their solidarity with working people in America by taking part in parades, meetings and demonstrations for shorter work day.

Thus, international **MAY DAY** was born in America, growing out of the struggle for the eight-hour day.

NO, THE WORKING MEN AND WOMEN OF THE USofA, WILL NOT ACCEPT ANOTHER DEPRESSION, AND CORPORATE AMERICAN KNOW IT. YES, CORPORATE AMERICA IS IN DEEP DOO DOO. EH!

Hope you don't mind me quoting an excerpt from your terrific site, The Privateer ( Gold Page ) http://www.the-privateer.com but I found this quote so graphic and compelling, I felt I had to share:

"There is a classic old cartoon from Warner Bros which puts all of it in a nutshell. In one of the scenes, the character is standing on a branch high up in a tree with a saw in his hands. He proceeds to saw off the branch he is standing on. What happens? Simple, the tree falls down, leaving the character smiling happily while the branch hovers in mid air. "See" - he says - "we can do anything in a cartoon."

I have hard time believing that the gold demand in the Asian countries, stricken by depreciating currencies is down 54% in the last quarter ( ? ) , as reported by the World Gold Council.

First of all, the world's demand for gold is up 6% for the first 9 months, as reported also by WGC. This increase would translate to about 7 million oz based on annual-based statistics. Also, do not forget that WGC tracks only about 70% of the world's gold demand/supply. This fact may be very convenient in explaining their gold demand underestimating totaling thousands of tons over the last few years. I am sure that they have certain political agenda as well.

Frank Veneroso's repeated requests for WGC comments on his findings have been completely ignored. The people in Asia have historically bought gold to protect themselves against the loss of purchasing power. The Asians are smarter in this area of currency protection than anyone else in the world. Anyone in those countries with money invested in gold suffered NO depreciation at all.

I personally know few people from Hong Kong and South Korea and the story from them is that people are buying more gold than ever, especially in Hong Kong.

I like Bill Buckler's newsletter, The Privateer. http://www.the-privateer.com It is top notch economic and political analysis. I do wonder sometimes though how come the Aussies seem to fixate so much about the United States. Maybe the former Brittish thugs from down under are envious of the former Brittish thugs in North America?: ) Eh cuz?

He sure did not want to take my $US: )

Steve

You say the American worker will not allow another depression and corporate America knows it. It all comes down to when our currency crisis hits, whether we will support the dollar, save the borrower thereby killing corporate america or not support it and allow deflation and save exporting corporate America and kill the borrower.

Either way, corporation and worker are tied together in all this.

Steve

November 21, 1997
APEC ministers meet in Canada but all eyes on Asia

VANCOUVER ( Reuters ) - Pacific Rim foreign and trade ministers met Friday under a cloud of financial turmoil in Asia, where South Korea's president apologized for the country's economic crisis and one of Japan's biggest brokerages struggled to stay afloat.

"As the government's highest leader, I apologize to the people," South Korean President Kim Young-sam told the country in a nationally televised speech.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/APEC.html

All.. How come all this new debt of 35 billion for a
lousy 15 days.?? Treasury needs some Christmas Money??

See.. http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971121/u_s_to_sell_35_bln_1.html

Is this a first to Auction 15 DAY Bills..?
Old handle was goose.. Not A.Goose.. a=another??

one of the things that set kitco apart from its competition was the ability to post anonomously without passwords. I, for one, used several different handles depending upon the particular mood I was in or what personality was showing itself at the time. I do believe the postings here will definately suffer, but, if that is the price to pay to weed out all the bad apples which were very detrimental to this type of forum, then so be it. we will adapt to the changes and march on.

***Either way, corporation and worker are tied together in all this.***

Yes, you are right Steve. Although, you must ask your self. Will the workers accept business as usual, or will they ( not all workers ) fight for their position in a democratic country. Yes, lives will be lost, as lives were lost in the past. Yes, men and women will lose jobs, as they are losing jobs this very day. A working man is nothing without a job, and that is a working life eh!. USofA is a very vicious country, when it comes to protecting her Corporations.

I suspect you personally will opt for the protection of Corporate America, I do not believe a country needs such absolute control over the working people ( citizen ) , as exists at the present time in the USofA & Canada.

I suggest, that there will be a push back by workers, to what degree, well that measurement is yet to be measured. Thanks Take Care.

Tolerant, I LOVED your "Use silver profits to accumulate Gold" advice. It so reminds me of a trip to Las Vegas where a little old lady was playing these two slot machines. As I stood watching her for a few moments bemused, I finally asked her why she plays 2 machines ( actually I think it's a rule that ALL little old ladies must play 2 machines at once, but that's another story ) . Anyway, her response floored me. She explained patiently, as if to a total Moron, "I play this machine here so I can win money to play this OTHER machine"

Damn it was hard to keep a straight face and walk away!! Use Silver profits to buy Gold?? Why not stay with a winner? Silver outperforms Gold in any true Bull metals market, and so it shall in the next one, particularly since the white will soon be all but gone, and we have a 20 year supply of Gold sitting in CB vaults, at current consumption rates.

Yeah I have a little Gold, numismatic mainly, but it's about a 10 : 1 ratio for me of Silver investment vs. Gold at this point.

"I really do not think that all the liabilities of the Fuyo group are the liabilities of Fuji." Yoshiro Yamamato, President, Fuji Bank

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/v65af6.htm

I think if gold could sing a song to the CBs, it would sing, "I get knocked down, but I get up again. You're never gonna keep me down!"

November 21, 1997
Notes of police questioning of Oswald found

WASHINGTON ( AP ) - The handwritten notes of the Dallas police captain who interrogated Lee Harvey Oswald show Oswald denied owning a rifle or killing President John Kennedy - just as the Warren Commission was told more than 30 years ago.

"Says nothing against Pres...denies shooting Pres," wrote former captain
J.W. ( Will ) Fritz, Oswald's primary interrogator while Oswald was in police custody from Nov. 22, 1963, when Kennedy was assassinated, until
the morning of Nov. 24, 1963, when Oswald was killed by Jack Ruby.

Five pages of Fritz's notes were released Thursday, two days before the
34th anniversary of the assassination, by the Assassination Records Review Board.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.JFK-Oswald.html

Yes, registration has changed Kitco. It means I can't post as "Hillary Clinton" or "Sox the cat" anymore, which really limits a guy's humor options here, but much as I was against the damned registration, I like it now that it's here.

Moron's can't post as "LGB" or throw obscenities at me or others anymore and get away with it indefinitely. And I don't have to tolerate accusations of being Karlito, Gloomy Gus et al now. For a non Goldbug, the change is refreshing because it's tough being subjected to the targeted paranoid rantings of conspiracy theorists constantly, and I see that nonsense has all but disappeared now.


Interestingly, I have also noticed that the posters I most suspected of the foul behaviours have all but quit posting the site now, even under their "real" handles....hmmmmmm......interesting....now that they can't throw excrement at people on the site, they have little to say......

Just when I said the conspiracy crap was done with, you go and post that Kennedy stuff!!!! ( Psssst, Area 51 still harbors alien corpses in a secret crypt 6 pak... film at 5:00 following Flintstones.... )

How are you, old friend? Tolerant1's strategy is called asset allocation. You allocate a certain percentage of your assets to each investment, for example: 30% blue chip stocks, 10% high tech stocks, 20% US Treasury bonds, 10% cash/money market, 10% US Treasury bills, 5% gold, 10% silver, and 5% platinum. As the markets gyrate, some of your holdings go up in value and some go down. Periodically, you reassess the distribution of your assets. Suppose silver has gone up to 17% of the portfolio, gold has gone down to 3%, blue chip stocks have gone up to 40%, high tech up to 15%, bonds down to 15%, cash/money market down to 9%, and platinum up to 6%. You then sell some of the assets that have become over-represented ( such as silver and stocks ) and purchase more of the ones that have become under-represented ( such as gold and bonds ) . It's a mechanical way to "buy low and sell high," and that's the name of the game, isn't it?

Crystal Ball ( 00:07 ) It's not really a federal offense, mate. But The Privateer is copyrighted. I would prefer it if you said that you liked the quote and posted the URL.

For anyone else who is interested in the full context, the quote which
Crystal Ball posted is at http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html

Media talk says these poor SEA's haven't any money, given the big hit that their currencies took - THEY CAN'T BUY ANY GOLD.
On the other hand, the media tells us that the SEA's are buying the US dollar, or paper like their failed paper. For gold they have no money, so the media tells us.
IMHO, something smells fishy.

Well, look slike the rest of the world is cheery on this Friday. All key Asian markets way up except our Korean pals, European markets very strong, the rest of the wrold strong. Maybe the big ole meltdown of Armeggedon is still a few days off eh??

Puetz, where ARE you?? I told you yesterday I get REAL nervous when you're not here making your weekly crash prediction. Makes me think something BAD might happen dammit! Now look, it's a few days from a New Moon, and a few more days after that till a full Moon. Remember that all crashes occur on a full Moon, or a new Moon, or a few days from a Full moon or a new Moon or a couple days between a Full Moon or a New Moon, or..........

Crystal, thanks for the primer but you KNOW a Diehard Bob Brinker fan understand asset allocation already. After all, he must say those two words 3000 times each show! And yes, that's why I have a little Gold, am mostly cash, move in and out of certain stocks ( mostly my own company's ) , and primarily into Silver & Platinum for the last few months.

As to making frquent trades, if anything I'm doing WAY too much of that action trying to capitalize on volatility! But I think it's a losers game for the vast majority, and I play it only because I'm a Moron and because I like to be in the "action" and trying to second guess the other guy. Diehard Poker player, you know.... ( holding an AK he figures he'll beat his opponents obvious pair o' Queens and RAISES the pot, looking for an Ace or King to come on the flop! )

You said "USofA is a very vicious country, when it comes to protecting her Corporations." While I agree as it pertains to multi-nationals, I myself own 100% of the common stock of a tiny little corporation and I do not feel very protected. Did you catch how a jewelry retailer in D.C. lost treble damages in an emerald fracture filling disclosure case? You think things like that happen to Archer Daniels Midlandwhen they fix prices?

You also opine that I would side against the worker in the upcoming class struggle. Not that my personal views mean anything but you are not correct. I am basically a tradesman with some capital and courage. My heart will always be with a hard working individual. That is until they ask for a raise and then I will cut them down at the knees:0

HAHAHAHA, just kidding. I think macroeconomics is being ignored as we ship jobs overseas with free trade. Eventually lower prices will not mean anything as no one will have good paying jobs to afford anything. 1.3 million personal bankruptcies this year out of 95 million households? That is not a good sign. Lending credence to your assessment of corporate protection, credit issuers are lobying congress for stiffer bankruptcy laws. It is like a drug pusher lobbying against treatment centers.

Steve

I apologize for the "All LGB" site! Where is everyone? Registration ran em off....Nite...

High Rise: Ur 22:44 raises a good question re this subject. I think that as a last resort the govt ( Fed? ) should be employer of last resort, and the work created should not be as lucrative as that which would be comparable in the private sector. I say this in violation of the Libertarian philosophy I believe in because I believe everyone that can should work until able to retire and be self supporting. Getting something for nothing provided by others is for the birds, not only because it is robbery on one end but it deprives the receiver of their pride. Would there be problems in connection with a move of this sort? Of course. Could it be made to work better than what we have now or will result from the "welfare reform" moves in the works. I think so. Comments?

Here's a good interview with the head of Oppenheimer's International Division. http://cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/9711/21/bd.02.html

The guest market monitor on the NB Report recommends
buying call options on the US Stock market. There was
not much said, not even what type of calls. I would say
that it would not be for the faint of heart.
Also, anyone can clearly see that gold is doing it's job
in signaling how severe the global deflation really is.
The lower it goes, the worse the deflation will be.
A stable situation = a stable gold price.

It would be in the best interest of the US to buy
gold which effect would be to keep the dollar strong.
Since the US is already used to issuing debt, then
debt should be issued to buy gold.

You admit to being a MORON, you take pleasure in putting down Mr. Puetz,
Your poker playing antics, sound more like a loser's. and I've seen posts that are similar, over recent times with your handles, with 4 different IDs.
When you have positive comments, your input is interesting, and contibutes to the forum. At other times you sound to me like a spoiled brat with a poor self image.

Please accent the positive and
eliminate the negative, and don't
mess with Mr. Puetz, in between.

What kind of companies do you own, that you feel it's
interesting to trade them?

Morning All-

SDRer- Thanks for that URL on Fuji Bank. Are you still on the trail? Regards {:}

Hi LGB; Reify; 6pak and All-
LGB, I've been enjoying your posts in the rare moments I've been able to access Kitco this last week. You've been giving a nice contrarian balance. Just stay nice, darling?

What's happened to all the regulars? I miss them- 'specially Donald with all his News URLS.

The Asian debt situation keeps getting worse. Any guesses as to what the estimated bailout cost will be next week? Year end? htttp://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/perspective/perspective4.html

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/perspective/perspective4.html

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world1.html

Hello Auric,
Thanks for URLS this morning.

I keep wondering whether the Asian economic mess could show us what could also possibly happen in South Africa? Cosatu [Labour Union] is very powerful here, and would not, I think, tolerate many gold mine closures.

With your over-all view of the markets and political situations, what do you think, Auric?

When I look at Kitco I'm getting a minute by minute, blow by blow
description of something that looks like war to me. At the moment
we are getting accounts of casualties but when we start taking
collateral damage, look out! KITCO + CURRENCY CRISIS = CNN + DESERTSTORM

Hi Colleen, my take is that Gold is cheap, the debt situation in Asia is much worse than we think, and a lot of time bombs are waiting to go off in the next 2 years. I think the best approach is to have debts paid off as much as possible. Have some accessible cash, and have some gold and silver in your personal possession. Simple is best. Good luck.

Auric, thanks for your view. It would seem that you agree with the worst type scenario?

Should that happen in RSA, it could be quite a dreadful time, as we are not yet sophisticated enough to understand that it may be a global occurrence.

I agree with Hedgehog that we seem to be seeing a blow-by-blow account of a momentous unfolding of events.

Even our local analysts, who were [ up to the 21st-22nd October] in general quite confident that what was happening out there would not affect us here in South Africa, are now changing their tune.

I just worry that I am seeing too much of a particular view - as a gold-bug myself, Im not complaining! [:-} There are many wise and knowledgeable posters here, and I appreciate their input.

Are there still optimists around??

Take care.

This will chill your blood if this is true.. http://www.insightmag.com/investga/dnc1.html

http://www.insightmag.com/investiga/dnc1.html

A turning point?
All we have to do it turn Eb now.
http://www.askrjo.com/precious.htm

Auric- thanks for that URL.

Yes, blood-chilling! It seems so far away from our side here in RSA, but could have ramifications for all....?

How reputable is this Insight magazine,Auric? Is it used by anyone else on Kitco, do you know?

Insight is a sister publication of the Washington Times. Don't really know that much about it, though.

Here's a website with links to lots of weekly market comments....

http://www.timely.com/cgi-bin/timelycomments

http://www.timely.com/cgi-bin/timelycomments

Auric, thanks. So its onto the level of 'is the Washington Times a reputable paper' ? O Dear! -all this unravelling!! Wonder what the CURRENT situation is?

sharefin-
Hi there! Good to see you back!
Have you read the 'zou-hou-men into the Whitehouse' article Auric has just posted? What do you think about the source?

Will come back after horses and garden.... take care.

To : bej - re your 23:37 post
Platinum is just like any other commodity ( as is silver ) . Its price is determined by the supply of newly mined metal versus the industrial/commercial demand for that metal. Supply problems earlier this year caused Pl prices to surge, a situation which could repeat at any time. Gold is the only commodity which is also money, and most of the world's gold is held for its monetary quality.

If I am correct and we are heading into a period of high inflation, then all commodities will rally substantially. Whether gold or platinum rallies more is anyones guess and depends alot on platinum's supply/demand equation.

If Steve Puetz is correct and we are heading into a period of deflation and economic collapse, then gold may rally as confidence in paper currencies is completely destroyed. However, under this scenario the demand for other commodities, including platinum, will fall.

Cheers, sas

Good to hear from you again....has Princeton updated their gold outlook for the imminent future, given the startling developments in Asia.

Thanks

I am taking the plunge into Kitco. I will be listing URLs
that may be of interest to the group. Here is the best search engine I have found. Try it out, and if you like it, save it. http://www.inference.com/ifind/index.html

Maureen
What can one say?
The power people are the same everywhere.


Saturday trading
Korea closed at the bottom of its daily tading range -20.64 -4.08%
Taiwan closed up +134.14 +1.73%

USAGOLD's DAILY MARKET REPORT
MARKET UPDATE ( 11/21/97 ) AM-----Gold and silver zoomed higher in early trading on tight supplies and short covering by traders worried that the price was about to break out.
http://www.usagold.com/Daily Quotes

aurator said:  but isn't the US also the biggest debtor
nation in this sweet old world's history?

I have seen this type of reason posted almost daily here,
and it is wrong. The key factor here is not WHO has the
largest debt, rather who has the largest debt PER CAPITA.
I have not seen recent numbers, but a few years ago the
U.S. was down on the list, topped of by Venezuela, then
Brazil.

Not that I wish to justify the U.S. debt, it is far beyond the
publics capacity to support it, and they have run out of the
stop-gap measures that can be used to extend the game.
What can they do this time.....print more money? No, more
inflation and more debt. Sell more bonds? Obviously not.
Raise taxes? The Federal and State silent partners are
already extracting tribute so much as to discourage new
enterprise in general, which will only reduce tax reciepts.
What weapon do they have left? I see the game as
completely hamstrung now.

All: Since Im taking delivery of another load of physical next week, you had better get your shorts in NOW...... the price ALWAYS drops the day after I buy. ( As this has NEVER failed to be the case, I guess I should start hedging myself on every physical purchase. )

November 21, 1997

Layoffs likely at Kidd Creek mine

TIMMINS, Ont. ( CP ) - The largest employer in this Northern Ontario city confirms it plans to lay off up to 200 workers within three years. The Falconbridge-owned Kidd Creek mine wants to trim its current workforce to about 850. The layoffs will occur in the mine's metallurgical site. The problem is a lack of ore in the mine for the site to process into copper and zinc, the company said. Royal Oak mines in Timmins has already announced plans to layoff 34 employees earlier this week.

aurator: Gee, that came out to rough. But the rest of the post was great. ( I really do enjoy your logic )
Saludos.
Cmax

"There is a twist to this, called Gibson's Paradox.

Simply put, in 1923 Gibson noted that in times of

almost zero inflation ( as is the case now in the US )

sharemarket and bond yields became positively

correlated, that is share prices fell when bond yields

fell. Gibson's Paradox reappeared in post-1989 Japan.

There are sound reasons why his paradox could

resurrect itself in the US. Lower interest rates are

fuelling more investment with lower rates of return, and

eventually that results in lower company earnings and

lower share prices."

Saturday, November 22, 1997

Bre-X defendants move to have suits thrown out

By SANDRA RUBIN

The Financial Post

Bre-X Minerals Ltd. director Hugh Lyons and Kilborn Engineering Pacific Ltd. both moved to have a Bre-X class action suit thrown out Friday, saying Texas is the wrong jurisdiction to try the spectacular $6-billion fraud.

The filings were among the first wave of defence statements to appear in what promises to be one of the biggest and messiest class action suits ever. Lyons, named along with all the Bre-X officers and directors, argued he is a Canadian citizen with nobusiness activities in the U.S. A director of Bresea Resources Ltd., a sister company, he said he wasn't

even aware he had been appointed a Bre-X director until March 1996 - two months after the fact. He resigned in the wake of the scandal.

In a separate statement, Kilborn said a Texas jury has no jurisdiction over the company in this case. "In light of plaintiffs' claims and their tenuous connection to Texas, it would be particularly egregious to subject Kilborn Engineering Pacific, a Canadian company, to the burden of defending itself in a court in the Eastern District of Texas."

It's being headed by Paul Yetter, one of the biggest names in class action litigation in the U.S. Lawyers in Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta are working loosely with Yetter in a bid to have the suit argued before a Texas jury.

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/FP/nov22_brexdefend.html

November 22, 1997
Yamaichi mulls shutdown as crunch looms

TOKYO ( Reuters ) - Yamaichi Securities Co. Ltd., one of Japan's top brokerages, said Saturday it may shut its doors after 100 years in business, as it faced a short-term credit crunch, shrinking business and high-profile scandals.

Options for the beleaguered Yamaichi narrowed considerably after main creditor Fuji Bank Ltd. said it was not in a position to take responsibility for rescuing the "Big Four" brokerage.

Yamaichi said in a statement that it would make its final decision public on Monday, a national holiday in Japan. "Our board members are doing their best to seek a final conclusion, including a possible shutdown of our business," Yamaichi said in a statement.

Should Yamaichi go under, it would be Japan's biggest business failure in the post-war era and its third major financial-sector failure this month, joining second-tier brokerage Sanyo Securities Co. Ltd. and 10th-ranking commercial bank Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Ltd.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BROKERS-YAMAICHI.html

To maintain the present price, central banks must loan into the market the shortfall between supply and demand. To decrease the price further, they must loan even more. As mines close down, they will need to loan even more. Someday, central banks will reach the limit of the gold they will loan. Demand now exceeding supply will cause the GOLD price to rise.

Once Asia collapses totally, there will be a massive move out of U.S. dollars. Some money will move out to help pay for the massive losses in Asia, and other funds will be used to buy factories now selling at a fraction of pre-crash prices. All of Asia will be on sale and money will rush in.

... the only solution being a common world wide currency:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html

"We had $50 billion for Mexico, $17 billion for Thailand,

thirty-something billion for Indonesia, and now we have a big

one for Korea, and maybe we'll have to have something for

Brazil," said Morris Goldstein, a former official at the

International Monetary Fund who is now a scholar at the

Institute for International Economics in Washington. "You can't

go on doing that without end."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-11/22/069l-112297-idx.html

And so the game is up "for real" now as the charade of manipulated markets and criminal banking comes to an end. The market analysts have changed their tunes rather quickly. The lying charlatans.

Stay in for the long haul, financial suicide. Let's see how all the market "players" do once the crash is in and no longer the figment of any sane persons thoughts.

Let's see how all the smug little boys and girls do in the obverse of the new paradigm. I call it reality.

Let's get setgo broke.

How can anyone seriously expect deflation? When has this ever happened

before? On 9/30/96, the national debt was 5.413 trillion, then 5.225

trillion on 9/30/97. Yet Bill Clinton says the deficit is down to 37

billion instead of 188 billion. With our current strong economy we should

be having a budget sulplus. When the next recession occurs and tax

revenues fall, or interest rates go up, what will the deficit rise to?

I like Au & Ag. What is the Ag surpluss and when will it end. This is my first comment on the net. Thank you for your consideration.

Maureen
What can one say?
The power people are the same everywhere.


Saturday trading
Korea closed at the bottom of its daily tading range -20.64 -4.08%
Taiwan closed up +134.14 +1.73%

USAGOLD's DAILY MARKET REPORT
MARKET UPDATE ( 11/21/97 ) AM-----Gold and silver zoomed higher in early trading on tight supplies and short covering by traders worried that the price was about to break out.
http://www.usagold.com/Daily Quotes

Global currencies charts
http://mccoy.djtelerate.com.hk/htmls/market/forex_reg.html

Debt, Deflation, and Hyperinflation
The Coming Economic Collapse
http://home.istar.ca/~lowen/

--------------------------------
LGB
More good gloom and doom reading:
http://www.polyconomics.com/searchbase/sumles5.html>http://www.polyconomics.com/searchbase/sumles5.html
Also
http://www.polyconomics.com/

Date: Sat Nov 22 1997 01:48
themissinglink__A ( 6pak ) ID#373403:
***1.3 million personal bankruptcies this year out of 95 million households? That is not a good sign. Lending credence to your assessment of corporate protection, credit issuers are lobying congress for stiffer bankruptcy laws. It is like a drug pusher lobbying against treatment centers.***

Good take on the subject of workers, bankruptcies & Credit issuers, especially drug pushers and treatment centres. : ) : ) : ) Thanks Take Care


Date: Sat Nov 22 1997 01:27
LGB2__A ( Geez 6 pak did you HAVE to!!! ) ID#316409:
***Just when I said the conspiracy crap was done with, you go and post that Kennedy stuff!!!!***

Soooo, I missed the film at 5:00 eh! Maybe I will be able to catch the next viewing. : ) : ) : )
Thanks Take Care.

OK. Everytime silver has spiked like this the last few months it drops back down to 4.80/4.90 range. I've got physical possesion of about 2000 oz. Is now the time to lock in and sell then wait for the drop to buy back in? It will take me 5 days to get my silver to monex but I can lock the price in now.

I need the best calls for what silver will be doing over the next 5 days.

This link will take you to some excellent reading. I suggest reading the entire series.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/mac628.html

I would take half and sell. Invest it in ASM, FSR, SSRIF for maximum results.

However. I think you should scroll through the posts here and look for the Vronsky post that takes you right to the thoughts of the Goldbug. It will help you formulate better opinions.

The silver bull you await will be measured in dollars not pennies

Morning. How sick does the market look from your scientific measures?

News Server, Thanks for the search site. It's great! And welcome! By the way, do you know if it's using one of IBM's new massively parallel machines built for relational data bases?

SAS: To your comments: As to your 1 and 2, The FED is in fact maintaining a high real rate of interest rate which is providing a restrictive effect on the economy. Your money supply comments have been used by "monetarists" for years without success. Economic studies have shown that moderate increases in money supply may ultimately provide inflation in the long term, but in the near term, there is no definite effect. Certainly any increase in money supply in the US or globally recently has not had an inflationary impact as you suscribe to. Nor has the employment and GDP growth in the US as evidenced by the PPI and CPI. Nor is it likely to do so in the forseeable future in view of the yield curve which is predicting continued non-inflationary growth without a recession. Moreover, even if there were a threat of inflation, there is no assurance this would benefit gold as there are numerous other ways to protect against inflation. On the contrary, it may be negative for gold if interest rates were raised to combat inflation as it would increase the holding costs of gold. Still further, there is no assurance that any sale of US Bonds by Japan would collapse the bond market. The US economy is still the engine which drives the global economies and all countries have a strong incentive to see that this continues - at least until their own domestic economies can carry their own weight - which is certainly not true in Japan.

As to your 3 and 4, As far as fear of deflation, as stated above, the present yield curve is not predicting a recession - but if there were one, then I would agree, any reduction in interest rates by the FED for this or to provide liquidity to support the market in view of its collapse would be beneficial for gold. However, your argument number 3 is in direct opposition to your premise for your first argument that due to monetary and strong economic growth, inflation will occur in the US and the FOMC would have raised rates but for the Asian crisis. As to a market collapse, this has been an ongoing prediction by bears for at least the last 5 years. I am also of the opinion that the market is acting toppy and is due for at least a sharp correction, but I also recognize that this cannot be predicted with any certainly and it may not occur for some time.

The Bullish comments for gold on this forum are about the same today as they were a year ago, and gold has declined steadily in face of them - as well as in contradiction to the opinions of many professional analysts who follow gold for a living. The lesson is don't fight the tape. There is not one iota of evidence that can be gleemed from the action of the market that gold has bottomed. One of these days gold may turn, it may do so next week, or not for three or more years from now. And that is reality.

It seems to me that, with the USD as the world reserve currency where every other commodity and currency is related to value through its first being valued in USD, a classical "devaluation" of the USD is impossible.

As I have mentioned before here the USD is presently the only "gate" through which all valuation can occure. Unless other "gates" of valuation which are independent of the USD become viable we will not see a classic devaluation of the USD. The Euro is the first challenger. I also believe the Asian region will develop their own challenger to the USD and Euro.

Yes, gold could, in a monumentally desperate situation, become a competitive currency, but I don't think so as long as the CB's hold as much as they do of it. To my thinking, for those of us in the USA ( and related economies such as Canada ) , what we must consider is using gold ( intrinsicly stable in its ability to store value ) as a very safe bet in terms of a time of transition in relation to the Euro.

We know that a rather large amount of capital has been poured into the USD, Bond and Equities markets from Asia and Europe. Eventually that with its gains will go back home. Whether it does so in a catastrophic bang or as gass leaking out of a hot air balloon .. we shall see.

The outcome will be that the USA will need to face its fiscal, financial and economic excesses and that will not be a pretty sight.

As always tripping over myself with humble opinions

With the staggering woes that have beset the Asian Tigers as
of late we may well need to expect a whole series of bailouts
for the Pacific economies akin to the 1980s bailout wave. And
the Fed sits poised to monetize new loans as needed. So there
is an endless stream of new debt that the Fed will be
monetizing into the foreseeable future on a grand scale.

All the while the central banks are shedding large portions of gold reserves in their on-going war on gold they are simultaneously weakening their own positions in terms of fungible, highly liquid assets.

A collapse in the stock markets and a run on bank deposits due to a global financial crisis could deal them a severe blow.

An excellent DETAILED review of Central Bank folly may be seen at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/voss112097.html

There are some intense financial problems that are reaching crescendo proportions. Gold is real money as history has proven. Anyone who argues that has not read a book.

Clearly the problem here is one of confidence. Paper is the promise of a banker and a politician. Ultimately it is the markets ( people ) that decide what money is. The figment standard paper charade has been dealt severe blows in the past several weeks.

The pontification and pomposity displayed concerning the almighty US dollar is an end game in progress and should be treated as such. The historical graveyard is littered with the headstones of currencies, which thought of themselves as King of the markets.

Scared money, delusional expectations and foreign purchase of our debt prop up the United States. While economists' debate the game is being played out right before your eyes.

All the propagandized conversation alters not a stitch in the blanket of deflation, which is about to smother the globe.

YAMAICHI SECURITIES - 4th largest securities firm in Japan throws in the towel - BUSTED!! - KAPUTT!!!- BANKRUPT!!!!

Yamaichi has Yen24 TRILLION in Customers assets -- THATS US$190 BILLION!!!! Yamaichis liabilities TOP US$200 BILLION!!!! Whose going to be play the PATSY and foot the bill to make the customers whole again?!

A Nippon financial giant has fallen - it has requested from the Ministry of Finance to be allowed cease operations. Therefore, it must dump all positions.

If forced to shut-down, Yamaichi Securities must liquidate all positions. HOW MUCH US T-Bonds does it have in portfolio??? See what the ultimate CONSEQUENCES will be for Japan, Land of the Rising Sun:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html

SAS I wish to add that although I may not agree with your views at times, I do appreciate your posts and the intellectual viewpoint they provide. Further, since I understand you live in the area, I would appreciate your view on the current Asian philosophical viewpoint on gold. That is, is the general perception that gold is still a good financial investment to be garnered for bad times, or are they being influenced by the Western outlook that gold now is primarily a commodity. Further still, there are conflicting views on future demand for gold in the region. The bears argue that the jewelery market is mature and the rate of growth in the region for this purpose will slow significantly in the coming years - with a lot of recyling. The bulls argue that as the middle class grows, more demand will be forthcoming for gold due to prosperity. How do you see this from your vantage point. And finally, what do you expect to happen to demand with the drop in currencies in the affected countries, and particularly, if the currency in India is devalued, would this cause a large fall-off in demand from the world's largest consumer. Thanks.

RLM: Thanks for the comment on Gibson's paradox, it is good to keep this in mind as I concur it may have present application.

I offer up the following. India, China and the Middle East have tremendous holdings of gold. They have a great deal more gold than the keepers of the statistics would have us believe. The United States market is dying, literally. Its people are getting older and its work force has not been properly prepared for the future, it will not be able to challenge the economic machine, which is Asia. No, the United States argues back and forth with itself about how to meet the needs of Social Security. I think they should start thinking more in terms of National Security.

The Middle East has another advantage in this problematic discussion, oil. The Asian Tigers as well as the Chinese Dragon will become huge consumers of this oil. They are watching their paper being destroyed and as the old cultures that they are they know the value of gold.

The Central Bankers have a serious problem, what do they have to offer. Paper. I think not. They had better bring to the table something these age-old cultures want, gold and silver. They will take what they want from there. They have the growing markets, the gold and the oil to demand whatever they desire.

To think that the Central Bankers could go from paper to invisible electric money will not sit well with these age-old cultures. The arrogance of the West is a spent philosophical and financial straw breaking under the weight of the historical winds of change.

And let us not forget Japan who has already embraced the Tigers. Oh yes, Russia, they are world-renowned traders of what? Gold I believe. The Russians and Japanese have been getting rather cozy have they not? And the Dragon and the Bear seem to have kissed and made up recently if memory serves me correctly.

The Dragon that murders its students was invited to the United States and greeted with open arms. A farce in full view of the entire world. The Bear having made an ass of the United States before all the world in Iraq has new found status in the Middle East. The pieces interlocking are no longer a puzzle.

Electric money, I think not, unless it represents real, tangible, feel the weight of it in your hand gold. The only real money and store of value the world has ever known.

And lest I forget the Princess of the East, adorned in gold and silver. India, she is as spiritual as ever and still a mystery to the West. I wonder if she will keep her distance or begin courting more openly the obvious beau's of her desires.

There is an excellent analysis of options as insurance in Barron's online. Andrew Smithers is interviewed in an article called "Courting Catastrophe". This is great bear market stuff. If you have a subscription, you can access it at: https://interactive.wsj.com/edition/current/articles/SB880155829288081500.htm

If you don't subscribe, there is a two week free period and the cost thereafter is only about 5 bucks U.S. per month.

Excuse my ignorance, but could someone clear up this yamakootchie thing for me. How much dough is missing after liquidation of assets ?

AlKahulik -- Regarding the NBR guest host on options for the individual investor, his time frames will cost you plenty! He recommended holding options with a three to six month expiration date for one to two months, and selling them if the, "Desired action," didn't materialize. If an option trade goes against you, a loss of greater than 80% in five days or less is not uncommon ( in fact, probably the norm! ) . With S&P 500 index options, I've seen it happen in one day. Just a balancing comment, FWIW...

November 22, 1997

VANCOUVER ( CP ) - The glass is half full, not half empty. That was the main thrust of the message Friday as the authors of an APEC economic outlook steered attention from the financial turbulence within some APEC economies to its underlying strengths.

The world is focused on Asia's currency crisis, but the economic committee examing the Asia Pacific Economoc Co-operation pointed to anticpated growth for this year.

The real gross domestic product of the 18 APEC economies should grow by 3.4 per cent in 1997, down only slightly from the decade peak of 3.7 per cent last year.

But growth in 1998 should moderate further to about 3.1 per cent, the report says. The financial insolvencies in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and now South Korea exposed structural problems and fragility in their domestic financial sectors, said Korean economist Soogil Young.

But APEC as a whole still has low inflation and unemployment. Its economies and people have proven very adaptable, he said. "Given also the fact that under the aegis of APEC, these economies continue to open their markets toward each other for trade and investment, we believe the current difficulties will be relatively limited in duration," Young said.

Question : If the FED foresaw S.E. Asia deflation , EMU, and counted on the US equities market to meet needs of retiring boomers, would they
drive AU down in anticipation of future reinflation worldwide?

BBML

A public link to both is: http://interactive.wsj.com/

tolerant1 re. 11:04 : Very good.

SAS re your 6:40 post: I posted some interesting sites in Kitco bars, coins and stocks newsgroup. I've been following little tidbits of news from the automakers, energy suppliers et cetera for several years and I really suspect that we're on the verge of
technology which will really increase PGM demand. Instead of $50 worth of pgm per car, we may be on the verge of ten to 100 times that amount required.

LGB: if you're reading this, just chalk it up to another crackpot conspiracy theory and don't worry about it. No humorous reply is needed ; )

223 Fri Nov 21 1997 22:55 ( Y2K not important for Microcomputer LAN's? ) Since you didn't state any Network Operating System, I take it that you don't use Netware 3.1x?

I think it's all rather funny reading the remarks by posters that Y2K really doesn't matter. Obviously they know NOT of what they speak ( excluding you 223 since it sounds like you are covered ) .

Just think of all that equipment located in Mexico, you know the kind like used Biomedical instruments - how are they going to get it certified and/or repaired? Long term concern is not with the U.S. so much as it is with all those 3rd world countries. The Global Village days are numbered, but all the children will be well taken care of by Hillary and her feminazi cohorts!

My remark was directed only about my personal system, which isn't an LAN server. But I think the basic fix which HAS to be done in any system is first to assure that the ROM BIOS is fixed. And it appears that at least for mine, Phoenix did this on or before 7/94. I think the key word for investors though is uncertainty.

Here is an interesting quote from Alan Abelson's column in this week's Barron's: "Yamaichi, incidently, is evidently a typical brokerage house, with a mentality very much akin to that of its American counterparts.... Last week, Yamaichi's own frantic buying lifted its shares from a low of 65 yen to 102 in the final two sessions. The sad and predictable consequence of this little exercise in throwing good money after bad -- or maybe it's if -- the shares open for trading this week. Why do we have a feeling that Yamaichi's creditors won't be too pleased?"

Abelson's quote brings several question to mind:

1 ) How much of last week's rise in Tokyo's Nikkei was a charade?

2 ) How widespead is the practice of corporate stock buy-backs used to give an appearance that everything is OK, when it really isn't?

3 ) Is Yamaichi part of the Nikkei Index?

4 ) US advisors and IMF advisors are recommending that Asian countries let their insolvent financial institutions fail. These advisors claim the cost of keeping brain-dead institutions open is more costly in the long-run ( which is true ) . These advisors have been hammering on this point to both Japan and South Lorea. Is Yamaichi a sign that Asian governments are finally going to let their institutions fail? And if so, how well will the global financial system handle these massive failures?

5 ) What will the Yamaichi failure do the the already fragile confidence the Japanese have in their financial institutions?

Interesting little tidbit: William Tecumseh Sherman failed at every single thing he set his hand to.....until it was HIS TIME to step into history....."War is hell. BxYtF

Puetz, nice to see your posting again! What's your current take on this
past weeks market behavior and are we still just seeing a fools rally?

This is perhaps the most comprehensive and accurate overview of the HOUSE OF ROTHSCHILDs financial activities during the last 200 years. And undoubtedly, NO ONE heretofore has ever come closer - indeed DARED - to estimating the extent of the Rothschild wealth TODAY... and what it might be up to in its traditional business of trading Treasuries and GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus112297.html

I have been 'cleaning' the office and I stumbled on a jewel. The Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther. I figured this Saturday ( Sun 8:30 a.m. NZ ) would be a good time to repost the famous Zurich axioms for all to read but I cannot go back that far on kitco...how come Bart?? Too expensive? Too what?

The date: Fri. Aug 15 19:36...go back if you can.

Perhaps my esteemed colleague The Aurator can oblige us. What say Aurator...throw the bone to us. Good with coffee. If not I can scan and post.

away...to the honeydews ( doos )

mowingandscrubbing

Hep 23:41 - Re. the poem...

You are saying US Dollar Down and Gold UP?? Or US Dollar Down and Gold DOWN? I like poetry I just couldn't get some of your verses. Perhaps Nick ( sharkfin ) can help me...

Colleen - been trying to squeeze in some time for some proper analysis of the info you sent. I do appreciate it and will get to it soon. I will not waste your efforts. You are a dear [:-}. Happy Gardening, I can't believe that my roses are still in full bloom...in mid-Nov.?? Wow...

sas - How is Princeton these days?...hmmmmm...good to hear from you...

Silverbear 9:07 - I vote to LOCK-IN prices now and WAIT...hum dee dum...

6-Pak 00:10 MAYDAY - Good bit of history...thanks.

LGB - Hillary and Socks...You forgot U No Whooooo....eh...and maybe a slew of others....perhaps this explains the silence....just wondering...

Spud - Good morning :- ) )

away...no really...

gone

i await the great sheller :- ( i need you man...

Cherokee - Red 32...oh my!

away...to bet the farm



For the record, since few people asked recently about the money supply growth rates:

As of October 6,97 :

1. M2 rose 5.6 % over the forth quarter base

2. M3 rose 8.4 % over the forth quarter base

3. M3 rose 12.7 % !!!!!! year-over-year basis ( the last time US M3 growth rate reached this high was '79 and again '81. Since '81 the M3 growth rate decreased to -1% early '92. Since this time ( Clinton's election ) the M3 growth rate has relentlessly increased and now exceeds late '70 high.

4. Commercial and industrial loans posted 11.5 % increase in September

5. Real estate loans rose 7.8 % in September

Given the fact that inflation is still a monetary phenomenon, the accelerating trend in money supply indicates

that inflation may???? be ahead.

However, it is still possible that we may be slipping into a severe deflation due to many factors present in the

world's economies and the current money supply growth explosion is just a temporary abberation. The

over-production capacity and namely the world's debt could be the reasons. The debt is inherently

deflationary and once the deflationary mindset is established, no paper presses can reverse it. Once deflation

rages full force and the mindset changes the political solution will be to inflate us out of it. If this scenario plays out, it would be critical at

this point to start buying gold with all the cash available, since inflation/hyperinflation will follow.

It has become almost impossible to look at the facts and predict what may happen. It

seems to me that the new world order has repealed many economic laws ( temporarily ) . We call debt assets ( bonds etc. ) , major

bank failures are greeted by rising markets /falling gold prices, IMF ( where the hell do they get all this money?? )

is ready with unlimited billions $$ to bail out anyone and everyone willing to loose economic independence,

etc...

..............................

I have hard time believing that the gold demand in the Asian countries, stricken by depreciating currencies is

down 54% in the last quarter ( ? ) , as reported by the World Gold Council.

First of all, the world's demand for gold is up 6% for the first 9 months, as reported also by WGC. This

increase would translate to about 7 million oz based on annual-based statistics. Also, do not forget that

WGC tracks only about 70% of the world's gold demand/supply. This fact may be very convenient in

explaining their gold demand underestimating totaling thousands of tons over the last few years. I am sure

that they have certain political agenda as well.

Frank Veneroso's repeated requests for WGC comments on his findings have been completely ignored. The

people in Asia have historically bought gold to protect themselves against the loss of purchasing power. The

Asians are smarter in this area of currency protection than anyone else in the world. People in these Asian

countries with money invested in gold suffered NO depreciation at all.

I personally know few people from Hong Kong and South Korea and the story from them is that people there are

buying more gold than ever, especially in Hong Kong.

tolerant1: Thanks for your post of 11:04. For what it is worth, regarding the Dragon and the Bear making up, I remember reading somewhere that in April of this year Boris Yeltsin and Jiang Zemin ( president of China ) signed a joint declaration in Moscow creating the New World Order. They agreed on the urgent need for a "rational" New World Order in which international influence would be shared and the present dominance of the US would be divided between Russis and China.

Quiet day on Kitco !

Vronsky: Glad you got Marcus's words of wisdom on the LBMA,Gold, and the Roths - I can't read enough about those mysterys! Thanks to Allen ( USA ) and his comments about Kitco posts remaining anonomous, ANOTHER ( the real one I think ) will post once more.

RLM, Skylark: Saw the Gibson's paradox posts. As I understand it, bond prices and stock market prices tend to correlate directly ( most of the time ) . Victor Neiderhoffer ( that infamous ex ( ? ) trader ) has a correlation graph of this in his book, "Education of a Speculator" -- see page 287, Fig. 12-4. Please note that x axis Bonds, y axis stocks may be the best way to see this, because the historical pattern is evident, as well as the current trend.

My guess is that when Bonds and stocks fail to correlate positivly, that is potentially a very bad sign, since dropping interest rates should increase liquidity and cause stock prices to rise. Your observation that this occurred in post 1989 Japan makes sense in this context.

Auric, all: Re - "Red China Targeting White House" ( Insight article )

Yes, this is a very disturbing article. We do have numerous conservative publications that are strongly negatively biased against our current administration -- some present carefully researched articles, and some do not do their homework. This article seems well written.

I think the most important point is that the basic concept is probably true. My impression of the current administration is -- "anything goes to get the vote". Security issues are secondary, not necessarily because of any anti-US motivation, but simply because the individuals involved consider security secondary.

Did anyone else hear today's rumor that Arlington National Cemetary Plots were sold to certain major contributors? I don't have confirmation about this, but I wonder is there is anything that has not been offered to get votes or contributions!

We now have 5 independent investigators, thanks to Janet Reno. Perhaps the tide is finally shifting back to integrity and honesty in government.

Gold Prediction =DEC Bottom $297.00 Anybody venture to contest ? It would be great if somebody could keep a list of predictions as I wont be around much in December.Happy Trails to all.

,

I am happy to oblige- here is the Zurich Axioms I first posted

Fri Aug 15 1997 19:36

aurator ( @ ---iconoclasts--R--us ) :

Thank you jDisney, Glenn, GSC, Arden, Donald for many fine posts. You see, that's one trouble with kitco. There are so many fine contributions that by selecting a few great posts, so many others are missed.

The following is offered as part down-payment on my debt of gratitude to you all.

As long as i mentioned the zurich axioms, thought it might be interesting to post same for comment???

The Zurich Axioms

Max Gunther

Souvenir Press

London

1985

CST

332.645

G97

Major Axiom 1 On Risk

Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health. If you are not worried, you are not risking enough.

Put your money at risk. Dont be afraid to get hurt a little. The degree of risk you will usually be dealing with is not hair-raisingly high. By being willing to face it, you give yourself the only realistic chance you have of rising above the great unrich. Worry is the hot and tart sauce of life. Once you get used to it, you enjoy it.

Minor Axiom l

Always play for meaningful stakes

Minor Axiom ll

Resist the allure of diversification

( Because it forces you to violate precept minor axiom 1 )

( Because it creates situation where gains and losses cancel each other out.

( Because you end up with too many balls in the air )

Major Axiom 2 On Greed

Always take your profit too soon.

Sell too soon. Dont hope for winning streaks to go on and on. Dont stretch your luck. Expect winning streaks to be short. When you reach a previously decided-upon ending position, cash out and walk away. Do this even when everything looks rosy, when everyone else is saying the boom will keep roaring along.

The ONLY reason for not doing it would be that some new situation has arisen, and this situation makes you all but certain that you can go on winning for a while.

Except in such usual circumstances, get in the habit of selling too soon. And when youve sold, dont torment yourself if the winning continues without you.

Minor Axiom lll

Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

Major Axiom 3 On Hope

When the ship starts to sink, dont pray. Jump.

Learning to take losses is an essential speculative technique. MOST never learn it. Take losses at once and move on. Take small losses to protect yourself from the big ones.

Beware the 3 obstacles to jumping ship:

- fear of regret ( that the loser will turn out to be a winner when youve bailed-out )

- Unwillingness to abandon part of an investment ( become willing to abandon )

- Difficulty of admitting you made a mistake.

Minor Axiom lV

Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.

Major Axiom 4 On Forecasts

Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

Nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Nobody. Never lose sight of the possibility you have made a bad bet.

Major Axiom 5 On Patterns ( The Emperor Axiom )

Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.

Do not look for order where order does not exist. Do not overlook the large role chance takes in any speculation. Study information in whatever speculative medium to improve chances and take your best shot. Stay light on your feet ready to jump this way or that. You are dealing with chaos, as long as you are alert to that fact you can keep yourself from getting hurt.

Internal Monolog goes:

OK. Ive done my homework as well as I know how. I think this bet can pay off for me. But since I cannot see or control all the random events that will affect what happens to my money. I know the chance of me being wrong is large.

Therefore I will stay light on my feet, ready to jump this way or that when whatever is going to happen happens.

Minor Axiom V

Beware the historians trap

Minor Axiom Vl

Beware the Chartists illusion

Minor Axiom Vll

Beware the correlation and causality delusions.

Minor Axiom Vlll

Beware the Gamblers Fallacy. ( This is my lucky day )

Major Axiom 6 On Mobility

Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion

Be ready to jump away from trouble or seize opportunity. You do not have to bounce from one speculation to another like a ping-pong ball. All your moves should be made only after a careful assessment of the odds for and against, and no move should be made for trivial reasons. But when a venture is clearly souring, or when something clearly more promising comes into view, then you must sever those roots and go. Dont let the roots get too thick to cut.

Minor Axiom lX

Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.

Minor Axiom X

Never hesitate to abandon a venture of something more attractive comes into view.

Major Axiom 7 On Intuition

A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained

Though intuition is not infallible, it can be a useful speculative tool, if handled with care and scepticism.

If you are hit by strong hunch - put it to the test. Trust it only if you can explained it. That is only if you can identify within your mind a stored body of information out of which that hunch must reasonably be supposed to have arisen. Be wary of any intuition that seems to promise some outcome you want badly.

Minor Axiom Xl
Never confuse a hunch with a hope

Major Axiom 8 On Religion and the Occult

It is unlikely that gods plan for the universe includes making you rich

Assume you are on your own. Rely on nothing but your own wits.

Minor Axiom Xll

If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.

Minor Axiom Xlll

A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place

Major Axiom 9 On Optimism & Pessimism

Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.

Optimism can be a speculators enemy. It feels good and is dangerous for that reason. It produces a clouding of judgement. It can lead you into a venture with no exits. Even when there is an exit, optimism can persuade you not to use it. You should never make a move if you are merely optimistic. Before committing your money to a venture, ask how you will save yourself if things go wrong. Once you have that worked out, youve got something better than optimism. Youve got confidence.

Major Axiom 10 On Consensus

Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong. Probably wrong. Figure everything out for yourself.

Minor Axiom XlV

Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy something is when no-one else wants it.

Major Axiom 11 On Stubbornness

If it doesnt pay off the first time forget it.

Perseverance is a good idea for spiders and kings, but not always for speculators. Dont fall into the trap of trying to squeeze a gain out of any single speculative entity.

Dont chase any investment in a spirit of stubbornness. Reject any thought that an investment owes you something. And ***dont buy the alluring, but fallacious idea that you can improve a bad situation by averaging down. **

Minor Axiom XV

Never try to save a bad investment by averaging down.

Major Axiom 12 On Planning

Long-range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take your own long-range plans, or other peoples, too seriously.

React to events as they occur in the present. Put your money into ventures as they present themselves and withdraw it from hazards as they loom up. Value the freedom that will allow you to do this. Dont ever sign that freedom away.

There is only one long-range financial plan you need: the intention to grow rich. The how is not knowable or plannable. All you need to know is that you will do it somehow.

Minor Axiom XVl

Shun long-term investments.



To which aurator adds:

It is of course axiomatic that one should not be dogmatic about axioms. ( especially this one )

Just back from from BLOW-OUT trip to the USA---kinda like Jack Keroac's "On The Road" book....Found NO gold but did find more land and who the hell knows,maybe there's gold in them there hills...Was basically on the road for 96 hours and am more spaced than usual.....

While LanMan and 223 discuss the 2000 bug and such I thought I would put up a site which might help those of you saying huh!, to get a better understanding of the beast.

http://www.yourdon.com

I can not remember who posted this first on Kitco, but I thank them and I think you will too.

Like I said this is not directed at LanMan nor 223 who obviously have a far better grasp than I do. For those of you wanting an excellent site which helps to make sense of it to the uninitiated.

I am sure that LanMan and 223 would agree once looking at the above site it is worthwhile reading.

TED Fear&Loathing@CapeBreton? Good to see ya back to this cleaner,healthier bowdlerised kitco, where everything is beautiful all the time, and you'll come to love those nice young men in thier clean white coats, they're coming to take me away HA HA


JTF & LBMA Gum Shus

I have not found this posted before, although it is old news, the following article does pose the big interesting question about Hedging production...


The dividing line between hedging and speculation is a thin one. But not to hedge is to speculate. ( ????? )


http://www.woza.co.za/lbma.htm

February 20, 1997
Bullion stakeholders vote for gold hedging from LBMA Gold hedging has been given an unequivocal thumbs-up following a debate hosted by the London Bullion Market Association ( LBMA ) yesterday ( 19 February ) . The final count showed 66 votes in favour of hedging with only 16 against.
Kelvin Williams, marketing director of the Gold and Uranium Division of Anglo American Corporation, and Guy Manuell, group treasurer of Australian-based Normandy Mining, spoke for the motion, "This House applauds the practice of hedging by gold producers". Speaking against the motion were Dr. Graham Birch, director of Mercury Asset Management, and Brett Kebble, a director of Randgold.
One of the arguments which helped sway the audience in favour of gold hedging was that hedging does not constitute speculation but is one of many financial tools being used in the interests of producers, investors and the market.
"Surveys conducted by independent analysts prove that the performance of gold producers which hedge their positions is streets ahead of those which don't," Williams pointed out. "The scare stories about hedging are nothing more than religious belief. The market is far more complex and subtle than our opponents make out."
One of the fundamental benefits of hedging is that it affords gold producers both revenue and budgetary certainty. Manuell said that revenue predictability was important for management as well as for analysts to determine future profitability.
Furthermore, hedging enables otherwise uneconomical projects to get off the ground and allows going concerns to continue paying dividends.
In his argument against the motion, Dr Birch said accelerated product selling was a contributory factor to market weakness. "Mining companies are selling far more gold than they produce," he commented. "They have created a dangerous dealing house environment where risk taking is applauded. But for hedging, the gold price would be much higher."
LBMA chairman Alan Baker said: "Gold hedging is a topical issue, as it affects the price of gold and impacts on gold producers' share prices. The debate was of great value in bringing some of the arguments for and against the practice into the public arena. The dividing line between hedging and speculation is a thin one. But not to hedge is to speculate."

American Eagle sales increased to 76,000 ounces in October, second highest U.S. mint sales figure in 1997, and merely 1000 ounces from the high of 77,000 sold in July. To date the mint has sold 466,000 1 ounce coins in 1997, and 7 million plus ounces since 1986 when the American Eagle program began. Interesting trend no? I suspect the final November and December figures 9especially November ) will be even higher than the 76,000 ounces sold in October.

Saturday November 22, 1:56 pm Eastern Time

BOJ to extend special loans to Yamaichi - paper

TOKYO, Nov 23 ( Reuters ) - The Bank of Japan will extend an unsecured loan to allow troubled Yamaichi Securities Co ( 8602.T ) to repay its customers, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper, quoting government sources, reported on Sunday.

The special fund infusion, estimated to amount to several hundred billion yen, is designed to protect the assets of customers, including those with cash deposits and securities certificates, held in custody at Yamaichi Securities, Nihon Keizai said.

It said the move was to prevent a possible financial crisis if the troubled brokerage house collapses.

On Saturday, Yamaichi said it was considering all options, including shutting its doors, as it faced a short term credit crunch, shrinking business and image problems after high-profile business scandals.

The paper also reported that Japan's Finance Ministry and the central bank are in close contact with monetary authorities overseas to alleviate global concerns over Yamaichi's possible failure, especially in U.S. and European markets.

It said BOJ Governor Yasuo Matsushita is expected to make a statement Monday pledging the funds.

BOJ and Finance Ministry officials were not available to comment on the reports.

The Nihon Keizai also said Yamaichi directors had decided to apply to the Finance Ministry to cease its operations.

It will complete the necessary procedures for halting its business before announcing a final decision by Monday, it said.

The ailing securities company is also investigating details of suspected off-balance sheet debt estimated at 200 billion yen, and whether liabilities outweigh assets, it said.

Yamaichi's board of directors and directors of affiliated companies were also in discussion about to do about thefuture of its employees, the paper said.

Fuji Bank Ltd ( 8317.T ) , Yamaichi's main creditor, said it was not in a position to take responsibility for solving Yamaichi's woes.

I have a book by C.V.Myers entitled World Rollover. This book was published in 1985 by Falcon Press. I found it in the .25 bin at the Salvation Army. If you can find an old book store, they may have it. Any way, in 1985 he predicted the expansion of Asia and the explosion of their economy. Also the demand for energy in the region and how this would shape politics toward South East Asia. Also he predicted the emmerging deflationary actions that are now occuring. And one of his points was after the failing of a major bank in Japan the deflation would accelerate. If anyone has read this book or others by C.V. Myers, please comment. I just dug this out of a moving box and am going to re-read it. With the actions of the last few weeks I could receive some new insights.

There is no way the Clinton administration would go with the idea of a strong dollar if it means the economy might slow down. The dollar is going down to bail out all of the other currencies of the world that are linked to the dollar. It is just common sense to lower the bar for the asian currencies to shoot at when they link to the US currency. Gold should go up some in this kind of environment. I will close with what will Bill Clinton do given the choice of a rising dollar type recession or taken the dollar down to benefit the economy and Al gore? I rest my case.

Reify re your earlier AM post. This new version of the Kitco site, no longer supports long strings of perjarative terms towards other participants, therefore I'll thank you to leave out words directed my way such as the following phrases from your post;

"You admit to being a MORON" "sound.... like a loser".. "sound to me like a spoiled brat" "poor self image".

Also reify, I use 2 ID's, one at home and one at work. Accusing me of being other folks is now passe'.

As to "Leaving alone Mr. Puetz" I will of course continue to point out the folly in the "Crash coming on Full Moon" type of analysis, as often, and as vigorously as I please. Leaving out of course, the pejorative terms such as those you slung my way in your insulting post.

Many here have critisized me for being too abrasive re personal personal comments of an "attack" nature. I have ceased doing such, and appreciated the registration changes here, since other's can no longer do so to me under cover of "anonimity". It makes it easy for me to be civil. No one here has come under as much heat as I have with the personal insults, and it's refreshing to see such posters no longer able to carry on the way they were in the past, now that they'll be "exposed".

Kindly cease and desist from such personal insults yourself, and confine your critique of my posts to issues on which you might disagree. That's the way I am posting toward other's with whom I don't agree, albeit in a sometimes satricial and agressive style. I have abandoned pejorative personal insults, and suggest you do the same. Check the log in your own eye before trying to pull the speck from another's eh??

I am unaware of their conversations and or reports which indicate the contents. The fact that they met and the coverage in the United States was trivial if any continues to be more than bothersome to me.

Clearly they did not meet to discuss considerations wherein the West would remain the focal point of power or decision making.

The U.S. mint has finally gotten the hint and has plans to quite making American Eagles with copper alloy, and instead produce them in .9999 fineness a la the Canadian Maples, and Vienna Philharmonics! A welcome change that should garner them bigger market share, since many of us Gold coin buyers prefer the look and feel of pure Gold.

Now one question for DieHard Goldbugs that feel the U.S. Govt. is pulling the wool over our eyes re the "worthless" dollar. Why oh why, is the Treasury Dept. willing to sell these valuable Gold coins and trade them away for "worthless" paper dollars if they know full well that they're just foolin all of us into believing dollars have value?

The dollar will go down far worse than the yen.

Question for the professional analysts re flow of savings funds. Looking at the Equity/mutual fund investment dollars being poured as monthly inflows into IRA, 401K, 403B type retirement plans.

What percentage of total monthly inflows into equities and mutual funds do these retirement programs represent? What are the average dollar volumes vs. the non retirement investors? ( Ignoring derivitaves for purposes of this analysis ) .

I've seen a lot of conflicting information re officially reported personal savings rates vs. retirement savings vs. individual and corporate investors, etc. Interested if anyone has a good site / source for weekly or monthly updates on these numbers.

Saul: Yes, this does look like a fools rally in the stock market. As I pointed out earlier this week, the DJIA and the S&P are rallying, but market breadth is horendous. Friday was another example of what has been happening since October 27th. On Friday, the DJIA was up over 50 points, yet there were more declining issues than advancing ones ( on the NYSE, Amex, and OTC, combined ) .

On November 20th, Individual Investor Trim Tabs reported: "Stock-market liquidity last week was negative for the 3rd week in a row.... The cause of the 'big trouble' globally is negative liquidity. [By liquidity, he is actually referring to stock market money flows.] The worldwide new-offering calendar since Labor Day has sucked an amazing $60 billion in cash out of the world's equity markets -- $30 billion in the US, $30 billion elsewhere.... Corporations and countries privitizing are selling record amounts of new offerings, insiders are also selling record levels of shares and converted options, and the pace of newly announced cash-takeovers has slowed in favor of stock-takeovers."

In Barron's, Andrew Bary reported: "Most money managers' performance relative to the S&P 500 Index has weakened noticeably since Gray Monday, October 27."

These are some of the things I've been talking about. Since October 27th, most issues are not rising like the DJIA and S&P have. Foreign markets haven't either. The liquidity problems "Trim Tabs" is referring to are the initial stages of the unwinding of the debt-bubble.

In this week's Barron's, Alan Abelson estimated, at the peak, the stock markets around the world totaled $21 trillion. He estimated the non-Japanese losses in Asia at $1 trillion. I estimated the losses ( including the Americas, Europe, Australia, and all of Asia ) are presently in the $2 trillion to $3 trillion ramge.

What has held the stock markets up, in spite of this sell-off, is the unbelievable doubling-up of bets placed by the leveraged players. Here are two of the indicators I watch. Derivative open-interest in listed financial derivatives has increased by 12% since October 27th -- to a record 60 million open contracts. In spite of the October debacle in stocks, NYSE margin debt increased to a record $128 billion. The leveraged players are ignoring all of the risks. They keep pouring into stocks and bonds in record numbers. They are the only major prop holding up the markets.

I've been expecting a margin-call liquidation to precipate the coming panic. So far it hasn't happened, but it will. When this type of debt increases during the early stages of a bear market, the seeds of a devastating crash are increased -- not diminished. For these reasons, and many more ( many of which I has stated here at Kitco during the past 3 months ) , I believe a stock market crash is both inevitable and close-at-hand.

I am, and I hope others are, preparing for the most devastating crash in the 20th century. It will be tremendous.

Look for a post by News Server. There was a great search site put up earlier. This may help you find what you seek. I have no pertinent info on the subject.

Date: Sat Nov 22 1997 12:27
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:

Yes a insightful write up. I think the last two sentences was of critical significance ...
"And finally he ( Mike Rouzee ) wonders what happens if one of the Japanese banks goes under is obligated to pay the other side of some derivative that a major U.S. bank olds. " Who stands up and makes good on that trade?" "

SDer we have benn talking about this for years. I think it is about to happen... now that we are just starting to ge press on this.

The article ( pg 24 ) Interview with Andrew Smithers is a MUST read. We will see it play out in the near future. IMHO.

Leading US Economist sharply criticizes Greenspans policy regarding gold.

In an absolutely perfect world, no central bank would need to
hold any gold. David Ricardo, the great supply-side, classical
economist of the 19th century, wrote in his Principles of Political Economy in London of 1821, that When money is working at the peak of efficiency, the central bank need hold no gold.

Very few opponents of "a gold standard" know what it is or how it works or how many different ways there are to link paper money to gold.

If the Eurocrats understood that, they would go back to the
drawing boards and build a monetary system from that assumption. This would require them to first fix the Eurocurrency to something the markets would understand as being a reliable unit of account. What? The answer is the dollar, the world's key currency, except that the dollar still wobbles around relative to the gold price. The Euro would be possible, but only if the dollar is first fixed in value to gold. Then, the European nations in the Eurocurrency system would have a credible unit of account as their anchor.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/wanniski111897.html

steady: Can you tell me where to get the raw monthly data OR a chart of M-3 since early to mid-1970s? I am working on a study correlating it to Gold - which of course I will post. Thx

I inadvertently came across the subject site which offers buy and sell signals for gold. Anybody aware of it. Comments would be appreciated.

Does anyone know of any reputable firms that offer physical ownership of gold for retirement accounts? I would seriously consider this as an alternative for my retirement savings.

Phony Securities Offered?
The Securities and Exchange Commission says a federal judge
issued a temporary restraining order to prevent a Yonkers, N.Y.,
securities company from selling what the SEC said were phony
international securities. The SEC accused the Yonkers company,
Uniglobe Trading Co. Inc., of selling ``fictitious certificates
of deposit purportedly issued by an Argentine bank and treasury
bonds purportedly issued by the Japanese government.'' The
president of Uniglobe, Clint Holland, denied the agency's
charges, but said he had just learned of the accusation and
didn't know what steps the company would take.

A free-for-all in Japan as Yamaichi Securities goes to the wall
TOKYO, Nov 22 ( AFP ) - Japan's Yamaichi Securities Co. Ltd. is
going to the wall, abandoned by the market in a free-for-all era
emerging in the finance industry, analysts said Saturday.
Yamaichi's impending collapse, the third big business failure in
three weeks, will dwarf all others since World War II with an
estimated three trillion yen ( 25 billion dollars ) in liabilities.
"In the past the authorities were protective and bailed out any
troubled institutions," said Yoshio Suzuki, head of Nomura Research
Institute.
He noted that Yamaichi had been bailed out by the government in
1965 but that the brokerage's impending collapse was now the third
in as many weeks as the market left sick companies to their fate.
Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Ltd., one of Japan's top 10 commercial
banks "In reality, it has already collapsed," Hasegawa said.
Compounding the disgrace of failure, authorities said Saturday
they had unearthed more than 1.6 billion dollars in debt that
Yamaichi Securities had concealed by keeping them off the books.
"The problem of the off-the-book debts was picked up earlier
this year by a magazine and Yamaichi lodged a protest against the
publication, threatening to take legal action," said Hasegawa.
, collapsed on November 17 under a mountain of bad loans and
Sanyo Securities Co. Ltd., one of the top 10 brokers, went bankrupt
November 3.
"It is hard to believe the Ministry of Finance did not know of
this," he added. "The ministry must have been aware of the problem
at a much earlier stage so you have to wonder why it failed to take
action until now."
Atsushi Nagano, director general of the finance ministry's
securities bureau, was asked in a news conference his reaction to
the Yamaichi woes. "I cannot express it in words," he said.
"It is essential for the revival of the Japanese economy to
proceed with natural selection of financial institutions," he
added.

I am not familiar with this type of transaction. You may wish to ask a Merrill Lynch representative.

My fellow Americans...

( I hope you forgive me- being a salty antipodean - it's just that sometimes aurator sees himself on a hoss, with a Montana backdrop, always wanted to say that, once. Yee haa )

but I done gone found something about Gold, about Freedom, about We the People- ( No--You the enemy - Read This ) the Fed Res Bud -- and State of Emergency apparently in existence without your knowledge.
THE WAR & EMERGENCY POWERS REPORT
go here
http://afcomm.com/afc/report.html


and do a search for bullion -- to whet your patriotic appetites

Any comments and thoughts


aurorattinghereandrattingthereheratseverywherethataurorator

Vronsky-the latest money supply data came from Kathy Jones, an economist for Prudential Securities. The historical data I have are from a graph that I found in one of the publicatons I get. I will look for a site that has the data available.
Meanwhile try this: http://cpcug.org/user/invest/charts.html#Indexes

kiwi: G'day - RU a mainlander? Where u at now?

BxYtF natural selection"...speaks volumes, doesn't it?

Att: KahunnaGrande. I have Myers book "world rollover". He was a wise bird and I miss his letters. He made great gold calls in the 70"s & 80"s
and many things he predicted are on the way but his timing was off.
He is the author of "A debt will always be paid by either the borrower or the lender".

One of the members gave me the following joke to post and I can't turn down a joke with such quality.

When Albert Einstein died, he met three guys in the queue outside the
Pearly Gates. To pass the time, he asked what were their IQs. The first replied 190. "Wonderful," exclaimed Einstein. "We can discuss
the contribution made by Ernest Rutherford to atomic physics and my
theory of general relativity". The second answered 150. "Good," said Einstein. "I look forward to discussing the role of New Zealand's
nuclear-free legislation in the quest for world peace". The third guy
mumbled 50. Einstein paused, and then asked, "So what is your forecast for the Dow?"

BART: Why does it add letters to my posts??? I did not type those letters in last two posts.

TO ALL;
Can anyone indicate how to convert Phillippine money to US money?
example $0.58 PHP would be how much in US $

1. Kyodo said the demise of Yamaichi would leave behind an estimated three trillion yen ( $23.8 billion ) in unresolved debts. +++ WHY SHOULD THE PUBLIC PAY FOR THIS?

2. ``According to Yamaichi sources, the brokerage has hidden from financial regulators the off-balance-sheet debts of more than 200 billion yen at its dummy companies on the British dependency of the Cayman Islands,'' +++ IN AMERICA THIS IS CALLED FRAUD, IN JAPAN ITS CALLED ACCOUNTING!

3. London-based staff of Yamaichi said they saw risks of a domino-effect across Japan, Asia and beyond if their brokerage is allowed to collapse.
``This could have a knock-on effect around the world,'' one senior Yamaichi executive in London said. ``This is a serious crisis for the whole Japanese financial system if Yamaichi closes, coming so close after Sanyo and Hokkaido.''

4. The biggest international concern was that Japanese banks could be driven to cut their U.S. Treasury holdings to raise liquidity, an action that would have global repercussions. +++ AND THE BEST FOR LAST ( THIS HAS BEEN PREDICTED AT KITCO MANY MOONS AGO ) .

Japan's Yamaichi sees no way out, poised to shut
By Brian Williams
TOKYO, Nov 23 ( Reuters ) - Japan's oldest brokerage, Yamaichi Securities Co Ltd ( 8602.T ) , was poised on Sunday to shut its doors after a last-ditch review convinced the company there was no chance of survival, Japanese media and financial sources said.

In a business failure that has set off shockwaves at home and abroad, the country's fourth-largest brokerage, laden down by a short-term credit crunch, shrinking business and high-profile scandals, plans to announce the decision on Monday, a national holiday in Japan.

Company executives worked through the weekend to finalise arrangements with financial authorities on how to shut the 100-year-old institution in a way that would protect depositors and cause least turmoil to world financial markets.

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper said on Sunday the Bank of Japan was set to extend Yamaichi an unsecured loan of several hundred billion yen ( several billion dollars ) to repay customers and prevent a financial crisis if the brokerage house collapses.

A Yamaichi closure would be Japan's biggest post-war business failure and its third major financial sector collapse this month, joining second-tier brokerage Sanyo Securities Co Ltd and 10th-ranking commercial bank Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Ltd.

The Nihon Keizai and Kyodo News Service both reported on Sunday Yamaichi directors had found no way out.

Customer assets at Yamaichi totalled 24 trillion yen ( $190 billion ) at the end of September, down 20 percent from six months earlier, and more clients have withdrawn their assets.

Yamaichi's shares ended at 102 yen on Friday, down dramatically from its high for the year of 525, set in early January.

Kyodo said the demise of Yamaichi would leave behind an estimated three trillion yen ( $23.8 billion ) in unresolved debts.

Yamaichi's crisis became more murky when a Finance Ministry official said there were suspicions of vast off-balance sheet liabilities exceeding 200 billion yen ( $1.58 billion ) from illegal trading practices in which brokerages temporarily shift investment losses from one client to another in order to prevent a favoured customer from having to report losses.

``According to Yamaichi sources, the brokerage has hidden from financial regulators the off-balance-sheet debts of more than 200 billion yen at its dummy companies on the British dependency of the Cayman Islands,'' Kyodo said.

Options for the beleaguered Yamaichi narrowed considerably after main creditor Fuji Bank Ltd said it was not in a position to take responsibility for rescuing the ``Big Four'' brokerage.

``Directors of Yamaichi Securities Co on Saturday confirmed their intention to submit an application to the Finance Ministry to cease operations,'' the Nihon Keizai said.

``The decision, reached at an extraordinary board meeting, states that seeking approval to wind up operations is their 'principal policy' for dealing with the precarious financial situation.''

To repay customers, the Bank of Japan is set to extend an unsecured loan of several hundred billion yen, the paper said.

Japan's Finance Ministry and central bank were in contact with authorities overseas to alleviate global concerns over Yamaichi's failure, especially in U.S. and European markets.

The Bank of England said it was watching events closely.

London-based staff of Yamaichi said they saw risks of a domino-effect across Japan, Asia and beyond if their brokerage is allowed to collapse.

``This could have a knock-on effect around the world,'' one senior Yamaichi executive in London said. ``This is a serious crisis for the whole Japanese financial system if Yamaichi closes, coming so close after Sanyo and Hokkaido.''

Because capital markets in Japan will be closed, London will be the first major market to deal with the fallout.

Staff at Yamaichi in London have been on edge for weeks as the crisis has grown.

Yamaichi sources said some of the firm's 7,500 staff at home and in 33 branches abroad had taken legal advice on personal and business contingencies ahead of Monday's decision.

Japan faces the risk that banks would be contaminated by the fallout from Yamaichi. Trouble could also spread to life insurers who have invested heavily in loans to banks.

The biggest international concern was that Japanese banks could be driven to cut their U.S. Treasury holdings to raise liquidity, an action that would have global repercussions.

Silver Plate speaking about the origins of words and phrases, how many original phrases subsequently picked up in common language can you spot in Jonathan Swift's classic Poem called "The Bubble" written in 1721?

Monsieur Vronsky or Cherokee may catch an ironic allusion to some genius or other..

THE BUBBLE

Oh! may some western tempest sweep
These locusts whom our fruits have fed,
That plague, directors to the deep,
Driven from the South Sea to the Red!

May he, whom Nature's laws obey,
Who lifts the poor, and sinks the proud,
'Quiet the raging of the sea,
And stills the madness of the crowd!'

But never shall our isle have rest,
Till those devouring swine run down,
( The devils leaving the possest ) *
And headlong in the waters drown

The nation then too late will find,
Computing all their cost and trouble,
Directors' promises but wind,
South Sea, at best, a mighty bubble.




*Devil take the hindmost, beggar thy neighbour,..


and here is an interesting essay on IMF, it contains historical numbers of SDRs, tell me this SDR paper gold ain't confetti...

http://www.self-gov.org/freeman/8904ewer.shtml


aurator

counting sdr confetti

You should see some of the more recent additions to the Executive Powers that Mr. Clinton has. I will be back with some of the choice ones in a bit

Mikey
try
http://www.port-holeinc.com/cgi-port-holeinc/currency.pl.cgi

I bookmarked it. Thanks aurator

Mikey
This'un too

http://www.xe.net/currency/index.shtml

Puetz, re your 15:38, there's something I don't understand. If this is not a "broad based" rally as you have stated, than why are the Broadest based funds ( such as Fidelity Magellan ) now up 4.7% in 7 trading days, and 7.5% since October 27th? Just doesn't make sense to say this isn't broad based. S & P 500, Nasdaq, DOW, they all show the same relative strength +/- a a precent or so in the past week/ weeks. Just can't understand this assertion that it's confined somehow to a few limited issues.

Kudo's though Puetz for finally renewing my faith in our system by making another "Crash soon" prediction. I've been begging you to do that for DAYS, and was really starting to get worried about the future when I didn't get my "crash prediction" fix, to let me know that all is well in the world! ( Japan/Korea notwithstanding )

Not to worry folks, the market has more corrective phases to go through, but no crash in sight, and the DOW will certainly end the year substantially higher than it began. Wanna take a bet on that Puetz?? Hmmm??????/

Just in case someone else missed this.

First Korea wanted 20, then 80, now 116 billion. How much will it be on Monday?

http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/971122/pageone/pageone7.html

As I recall, someone posted the the IMF might have $40 billion total, but some of the money was being saved for Brazil ( just in case ) . Just wait till mainland China wants to cover the over $300 billion in unrecoverable loans for the SOE's ( emergency meeting reported by Steve-Perth yesterday ) ? I think the IMF is a bit short!

This is my first participation in this group. I hope my question is an

appropriate one. For those who closely follow Canadian gold stocks, I

would like to know what you think of TVX Gold, Inc. as an investment at

this time. Also, if you believe other companies are currently better

positioned, I would like your thoughts on who and why.

My apologies, should have read what I posted more carefully. Korea wants only 80billion US dollars. But -- the IMF is still a bit short -- anyway.

Here is what the U.S. Treasury Department has to say about Gold and paper Assets, and the U.S. Gold American Eagle. this is directly cut and paste from the Treasury's web page;

"" The Department of the Treasury

The All-American Investment
American Eagle Bullion Coins

Most financial advisors agree that the key to a successful investment strategy is asset diversification.
By spreading your investments over many different categories, you can increase return and lessen portfolio volatility.

For years, financial experts have recommended gold as an excellent way to add this diversity to your portfolio. Why? Because the price of this "hard asset" generally moves contrary to those of more traditional "paper assets" such as stock and bonds. In fact, over the long run, gold has an excellent track record in maintaining its purchasing power relative to other financial assets.

An easy way to add gold to your portfolio is to invest in legal tender bullion coins. In America, more people choose American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins than any other bullion coin in the world. Why are Eagles so popular? It's simple. They are the only bullion coins backed by the U.S. Government for weight and content. Guaranteed. ""

LGB comment;

Isn't it bizarre that the eeeeeevil U.S. government who is trying to fool us all into believing that Gold is bad, and "worthless" paper is good, would slip up so badly as to put up a web page touting Gold as a good diversification investment? A good investment offset to paper? An investment that runs contrary to paper? Etc etc?

My goodness, I wish these nefarious, manipulating, U.S. Govt. plotters would at least have the decency to inform their own Treasury dept. to get with the program. They should get on with the business of misleading the public into avoiding Gold coin investments at all costs. What's wrong with those folks at the Treasury anyway?

While they're at it, how CAN they justify giving away these One ounce Gold coins in exchange for worthless paper anyway? Doesn't the Treasury dept. know that a total collapse of the currency is just around the corner and that they should withold all these nice Gold coins from the general public? What idiots eh?

PUETZ: Thanks again for sharing important information on the market. Statistically, do you know on a historical percentage basis, the chance of a signficant maket sell-off occuring in December or January.

jsh:
TVX-Get a loan from Rockefellers & Rothschilds!!!

Friday November 21, 9:16 am Eastern Time
Company Press Release

TVX Gold Inc. Announces Closing of US$180 Million Senior Revolving Credit Facility

TORONTO-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Nov. 21, 1997--TVX Gold Inc. ( TSE:TVX. - news; ME:TVX. - news; NYSE:TVX - news ) TVX Gold Inc.
announced today that it has successfully completed a US$180 million Senior Revolving Credit Facility with a group of major International financial institutions. The syndicate was led by The Chase Manhattan Bank of Canada, acting as Administrative Agent for the Facility, with Royal Bank of Canada [NYSE:RY - news] and Barclays Bank PLC acting as Syndication Agent and Documentation Agent respectively. In addition, the banking syndicate includes BT Bank of Canada, Credit Lyonnais Canada, Deutsche Bank Canada, N.M. Rothschild & Sons Ltd., The Toronto Dominion Bank, Paribas Bank of Canada and Republic National Bank of New York
( Canada ) .

The Facility has been structured as a 4 year, senior corporate revolving credit facility. TVX Gold has the option of drawing down advances in U.S. dollars, Canadian dollars, gold and silver under the terms of the Facility.

The Facility, the first syndicated revolving credit facility for TVX Gold, will be used for general corporate purposes, including project development.

This facility replaces the US$70 million facility with Toronto Dominion Bank which would have expired in March 1998.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/971121/tvx_gold_1.html

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

Hourly Gold chart shows possible local
Gold Bottom in progress.
Retailing ( FSRPX ) short term Leader.

Are you familiar with the following sites?;

go to the digest section and look under Goldbug

http://www.gold-eagle.com

The Golden Page - lots of stuff

http://.www.henge.com/~vspina/gold.html

Look under past issues on Gold Newsletter

http://www.blanchard.stockscape.com

While the collapse of this institution is indeed frightening in it's implications, is it not far preferable in the free marketplace than propping it up artificially? Is this not the very idea we see preached here so often that free markets should allow the weak sisters to collapse rather than being artificially carried along to everyone's future detriment?

I see the fact that Japan's bankers are allowing Yamaichi to collapse as a very POSITIVE harbinger of things to come. Let's let the chickens come home to roost now as they should in a free market, and prevent a worse catastrophe later. I'm not saying Govt. intervention should NEVER occur, only that this is a great step in a non interventionist direction, especially for those worries about manipulation of the world markets.

What is this password sh!t???....guess I'll just have to try ta be ME and give up all my 'other' lives~~~~~~Thoughts of the day: Gold= hope it goes waaay up so I will have more bucks to put in the new house....Canadian Postal Strike= Total B.S....terminate em all! should be ILLEGAL for UNIONS to be able to shut down such an ESSENTIAL service as the NATIONAL postal network fer christ sakes-where is the reason ( ??? ) ....Do what RR ( the 'real one' ) did to the air-traffic controllers....On MONDAY!....P.S. Trip was a total success!!! found three more properties to be possible alternatives to Swan's Island...From Lubec Maine area ( Coffins neck ) to a place called Point of Maine ( near Starboard--that's near Machiasport-that's not near much ) ~~~~~~Found ( via the internet ) the best realtor ever...67 year old woman bush wacking through the woods for hour ....after hour.....in the height of hunting season! What energy!!...and spirit~~~~~~~~~......To anyone "out there"--will we ever get a decent gold rally before ECU is completed????Am starting to ramble----must be the headphones~~~~~~~~~ or the road signs still flyin by my bleary eyes....

During your parody you forget to mention two devastating facts.

The government can only issue coined money. Its in the Constitution.

The second fact revolves around the first, it refers to gold as an investment. This is false, it is the only money of the land.

Ahh well Tolerant, if you believe only Gold money is "Contitutional" than surely you also believe that the income tax is not constitutional either eh? If so, be sure not to pay your taxes.

And I DO HOPE you don't use credit cards, checking accounts, or paper money of any kind, at any time since it isn't "real" money!

Now as to my "Parody", I still havn't found anyone willing to answer my questions! Why is the nefarious, eeeevil, Gold hating, manipulative, conspiring Federal Govt., putting up Treasury dept. web sites touting the virtues of Gold American Eagle owndership?? Especially if they have to take worthless paper in trade for same?

http://www.fame.org/research/library/wes-001.htm

What type of property are you looking FOR .Sorry all off topic--SORRY

is this the "BIG BANG" Japan has been alluding to for so long? Now it seems they have carte blanch to unload US Treasuries all over those yankee swine causing god knows what damage. The White House can plead all they want but I think they are the unfortunate few to be in power at the end of an era...I would not put it beyond Japan to bear grudges from Hiroshima, Nagasake. I know my father and I'm sure many other wartime children still have a deep distrust of the Japanese ( bordering on racism ) something I can't fathom myself.

aurator: am from south auckland farming region originally, temporarily in the land of We the People.

Puetz - Thanks for your earlier response!!

Now, I just want to throw out this observation for everyones analysis.
If this debacle at Yamaichi was know Friday afternoon and someone at the panic control center realized how the markets were reacting, they certainly stopped it from collapsing the stock exchanges, by having a Japanese official at the Washington Embassy come out with a reassuring
statement. Yea! Yamaichi is having problems but, they will be OK.
What that statement actually did was rally the markets going into the close. This rally could turn out to be the sucker's rally.

I am no expert in derivatives but, if Yamaichi has outstanding debts of
25 billion I must wonder how those debts are tied into the world's derivative markets and if a billion here or there affects the U.S.
brokers and banks all hell is about to break wide open. Especially, when
Yamaichi was hiding various losses from the regulators in their off shore
accounts. We must also ask how many other Japanese financial
institutions have or are still conducting these type of hidden transactions? Now with the present situation, we add in the bailout
programs in Asia, a few hundred billions, the S. American situation etc.,
when will the CB's come to the realization that the hole in the dyke is
getting bigger with every new revelation from the Asian countries.

This Pow Wow over the next few days in my opinion, will not address
the financial crisis in just Asia but, the crisis that is going to come about
in the entire financial world. Next week is certainly going to be interesting.

Puetz, Crawford and many other stock gurus have been predicting
that a complete collapse may happen about the first week in December and with what is about to happen as a result of Yamaichi they just might be RIGHT!!!

LGB_2 & Numithmatithts every where here is a cool slang site

http://www.malakoff.com/cms.htm

Ted your e-mail been bouncing off e-whales again?

Saul, one minor correction to your post if I may. You said.... "Puetz, Crawford and many other stock gurus have been predicting that a complete collapse may happen about the first week in December"

Well that's got a GRAIN of truth to it. Problem is that Puetz has been predicting a crash, not ONLY for the first week of December, but for every week in November, October, August, July, June...... why..as far back as he's been writing most likely!! ( And ESPECIALLY on those week's that have those pesky full Moon's )

Sorry for the satire, but we DO need to keep Puetz's perceived predictions somehwhat closley linked to his ACTUAL predictions if we are to asess their validity and veracity accurately.

Sort of like the "Gold standard" preventing fiat inflation of currency I'd like to see a "Puetz standard" preventing inflation of claimed prophetic success. The "Puetz standard" would of course be firmly linked to all his predictions here on Kitco and in his newsletter since it's first day of publication....

Geoffs: Am searching for wild oceanfront property with NO neighbors and TOTAL peace and QUIET~~~~~~~~~~Have found FOUR and the 'search' is now over with only the choice left at be decided....Go gold ( now we're on subject ) .......

Vronsky: Here is a web site with the most complete and up-to-date US economic data I've seen on the web. You can print graphs, or raw time series data.

I'm confident you can find the money supply data you need here.

http://bos.business.uab.edu/data/data.htm.

G'day Mate!

It does exist~~~~~~~~~~

There is no answer but the one I gave. It is illegal.

JTF..recalling our planetary alignment comments I've noticed that the day of the dark moon, Nov. 30, will correspond with an alignment of both the moon and the planets all to one side of the earth. As the moon has the largest gravitational pull on the earth it is the chief contributor to tidal forces and has been masking most of the effects of our current alignment phase. However when the moon moves around to the side of the planets then all their tidal force vectors will sum up and we may witness some effects on this planet rarely seen ( order of 40-60 years ) , "Spring" tides, extreme weather, market turmoil ( heheh..I know you love this lurky )

Would you join me for some Copper Coins?? Eh??

Welcome back Dak ( or chippie ) . Knock off the road dust, whirrrrr the blender, pull up a stool and catch up.....you ole dog. California is he place you ought to be anyway.

go gold!

away...to 'count' some coins...aaaaaaaahhh...

ogart...oh my..

If there is a reasonable threat of significant US bond liquidation, then the dollar as well as the US debt market should be affected. If the Yen weakens relative to the Dollar and the Dollar relative to other currencies, the dollar may no longer be considered a safe-haven and gold may be a beneficiary of the Crisis. Moreover, if it is expected that the US Bond market and dollar will be affected by the Japanese Financial Crisis, this may induce a run on the dollar and bond market which of course would induce a run on the US stock market as well. Suffice to say if gold does not enjoy at least some support by this financial uncertainty, the chance for a substantial further sell-off in gold increases significantly. In former times, gold would be skyrocketing with such financial turmoil as has occurred recently.

Look for a top this week at 990 +/- 2 points, followed by a correction back to 950 - 960 minmuim.

Isn't it obvious why the Treasury Dept is content to sell gold coins for worthless paper? American Eagles are BULLION coins and thus subject to confiscation under the War and Emergency Powers Act of 1933. The powers that be keep track of which enemies of the State ( WE THE PEOPLE ) engage in the CRIME of hoarding gold. Read Solzinitsyn's "Gulag Archipelago" to see how after the Bolsheviks took power in 1917, they went after ANYONE they suspected of having had gold, particularly dentists, goldsmiths, and jewelers, and TORTURED them to the point of death.

errata..that should have read "largest unbalanced gavitational force"...of course the sun has the largest gravitational force but this is balanced by the earth's orbital momentum.

Bottom in gold??!? Hmmmmmmmmmm...

Ask SpudMaster...He has a better feel ;- )

away...to make profit under 301

groovin'

This has just gotta be posted in full

http://www.malakoff.com/cdp.htm


Coin Dealer

PHILOSOPHY

Honesty is the root of all evil.
Money is the best policy.
A feast is made for laughter, and wine maketh merry: but coins answereth all things.
Whether he admits it or not, a coin dealer has been brought up to look at inventory as a sign of his
virility, a symbol of his power, a bigger phallic symbol than
Coin Dealers all need money, but there are degrees of desperation.
There are stupidities. . . that have the ability to survive identification and go on for ever . . .
collectors, for instance, or Nodrog
Numismatics, more of a stepmother than a mother in several ways, has sown a seed of evil in the
hearts of coin dealers, especially in the more pompous ones, which makes them dissatisfied with their
own loot and envious of another's.
I couldn't claim that I have never felt the urge to explore a coin show, but when you descend into
hell you have to be very careful.
When choosing between two evils, a coin dealer will pick the one he hasn't tried before.
Natural selection, as it has operated in numismatics, favors not only the clever but the murderous.
As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a collector returneth to his folly.
A collector sees not the same coin that a dealer sees.
A spoon does not know the taste of soup, nor a numismatist the taste of manganese.
We never really know what stupidity is until we have opened a coin shop.
A dog teaches a boy fidelity, perseverance, and to turn around three times before lying down.

What's your secret to staying so ullient all the time?

Screw the dust but the blender is whirrin its magic...could call it another one of life's 'golden moments'~~~~~~~~~~~Cal. ya say ( heard Humbolt county is ......pretty~~~~~

All: I thought some of you might like a web site about the new physics. Much of the newphysics stuff is empirical and scientifically unsound. This author is logical, and I cannot see any clear flaws in his logic.

I cannot claim that I am convinced that all of the items he discusses about the new physics is correct, but I am convinced that there is a whole new world of physics that we are just beginning to understand. For example-- how can ball lighting appear to pass through solid objects -- where does the vortex energy for a tornado come from? ( Ref: B. Vonnegut, 'Electrical Theory of Tornados', Journal of Geophysical Research, v.65,p203; 1960 ) . You can gloss over the math -- pretty detailed in some places, and still get a flavor of what he is saying -- even if you are not an engineer, physicist, or mathematician.

"All the world's a stage,

And all the men and women merely players ----"

Hamlet, As You like It, Act II

http://www.energyscience.co.uk/

Much of what we think we understand may really be something else altogether!

 I reposted as requested Zurich Axioms earlier seshun

away for a walk to see the ducks, turkeys, tucks, emus & Pukekos of course kiwi!

auratorarambling

--and the family ate dead chicken every sunday afternoon---

Austin Lounge Lizards

Put me 'better half' through hell---she passed out hours ago and I probably did to........Me + Willy must stay alert and awake while guarding the bunker~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

AL @ 16:35

Re: Gold in I.R.A.

You might want to consider the Central Fund of Canada, a closed end fund that holds gold and silver bullion exclusively. Am not sure of the mix.

It is available both in Canada and the U.S.A. For Candian investors I know that you cannot hold gold bullion in an R.R.S.P. and hence the value of the Central Fund. Perhaps you can hold the bullion in an I.R.A. however there must be extra charges such as insurance and storage.

Tice commentary
There was a great quote from a noted economist from 40 years ago that typifies the feelings held by most stock market investors. In the book "A Short History of Financial Euphoria", it was said: these "superficially more astute people ... are in to ride the upward wave: their particular genius, they are convinced, will allow them to get out before the speculation runs its course. They will get the maximum reward from the increase as it continues, they will be out before the eventual fall." He said that this erroneous thinking leads inevitably to a collapse. Some event will trigger an ultimate reversal. "Thus the rule, supported by the experience of centuries: the speculative episode always ends not with a whimper but with a bang".
http://www.tice.com/MARKCOMM.HTM

Zacks commentary
"What do I think of the stock market environment?", I responded, "I believe we are in a bear market, which began October 27th with the 550 point plunge in the Dow!"
http://www.tfc.com/syndication/current.cgi?tfc+zacks

Futures and Options charts
http://www.insync.net/~fot/

Firstcap.com
STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY
I expect to see some early week selling. Keep in mind that the Asian situation is more significant than most commentators would have you believe. It will have a negative impact on our economy and we are already showing signs of softness for the new year. In a market where the rallies have weak internals and the sell offs snowball, anything can happen. Remember that we are in the first phase, the denial phase, of a BEAR MARKET.
http://www.firstcap.com/smt/sm.html
It was a relatively quiet week in the bond market until Friday afternoon. Firmness on Monday and Tuesday and then a little retracement. Then on Friday afternoon YAMAICHI hit the fan. The market turned on a dime ( Yen ) and reversed an earlier loss to a gain for the day in late trading. I can't say if the turn was on a flight to quality or a recognition of the negative impact Asian monetary and economic events on the U. S. economy. I have held the opinion for some time that weakness in the Asian economies could be a drag on our exports as well as a depressant on domestic prices. Needless to say a softer U. S. economy translates into lower interest rates.

The moment of truth will come sooner or later when the market and the Fed are faced with the return home of some of the Treasuries owned by Asian banks that may have no choice but to liquidate some of their U. S. Treasuries to re-liquify. Keep in mind that our largest export is not Airplanes it is Treasuries. My opinion is that there can be some disruption to our markets. I do however think that the Fed has few other options than to supply liquidity to our markets when the need arises.
http://www.firstcap.com/smt/bm.html
http://www.firstcap.com/smt/fun.html

THE SKEPTICAL INVESTOR
http://www.chebucto.ns.ca/~an388/oct97.html
Issue No. 5. October 1997

An Open Letter to Victor Niederhoffer
http://www.adtrading.com/adt20/editor20.hts

Magi Elf Commentary
11/21 note: Relief rally lasted all week, a short squeeze on the folks that bought puts on Meltdown Monday ( part I ) . We bought back into the Mar 600 S&P's at between 2.125 and 2.75 this week. It's now just a matter of time until the market realizes that the Asia mess is still with us and that the US is not going to be the lender of last resort. The Elliott Wave Theorist is projecting a bad Dec 1-2.
http://www.nwlink.com/~magicelf/stock1~1.htm

N.E. wind bringing in snow off the chilly North Atlantic~~~~~~C.U.P.E ( Canadian Union of Postal workers ) and Darrell Tingley ( pres. ) SUK...........

Merrill's deal signals US market decline
http://nypostonline.com/business/979.htm

Thanks Aurator. I saw. I made a copy when you first posted them. I thought that others who hadn't seen them could benefit. It is truly some good work...and fun...

Have fun with the birds. btw, do you have several gazillion species of Roo's in NZ?? I saw a great show on the different types and the abundance of them. Fascinating they are.

GO GOLD...

Ted - Felt pretty good back in the States, eh?? Home Sweet Home...uh huh!

away...to drink the bitter and cook flesh

Q

JTF: Now what did I try to tell you before about interpenetrating states of matter? Ball lightning, like regular garden variety lightning, is a manifestation of radiant solid matter. Radiant solid matter is the "electrical" matrix that interpenetrates the entire ball of wax in the visible universe. This visible universe is just the tip of the iceberg, a mere outer layer of the big onion, and other such analogies. You get my drift. Any manifestation of electrical discharge, ie "lightning" is the effect of essentially INVISIBLE radiant solid matter exciting, and consuming, the layers of matter in denser formation "below" it. That is to say, the "finer" state of matter is alway underlying, formative, and expressive upon, the lower or "denser" state, or permutation, below it. When we see lightning, we are seeing the effects of electromagnetic phenomena UPON matter, those effects arising first from radiant solid, then to airy solid, then to fluid solid, and finally to solid-solid matter ( ultimately "carbon" ) . Radiant solid matter is "starlight" ( some have called is "astral matter", but few who do understand what that is ) but the light we see from the stars is the EFFECT that the invisible radiant solid matter has on the relatively invisible airy solid units "below" or surrounding it. When ball lightning is seen passing through a physical object, it is the invisible radiant solid particles that are moving, holding shape, and exciting predominantly airy-solid units, with an admixture of suspended fluid solid and solid-sold particles. Think about it.

You said it dude~~~~~~~~~Too bad about SHAQ ( haha ) ....go gold---go up--please.....

AURATOR: You mean to say people eat dead chickens???!

Crystal I thought I was the ONLY comedian here! The Govt. is selling Gold coins to keep track of us and torture us later! Now I get it!! That was funny though.

Now if the Govt. DID want to track the Gold buying public, it seems like they'd try a system where they could tell who bought the coins don't you think? Instead, they have a system where the bullion coins are NOT AVAILABLE for purchase to the general public but instead distributed through certain large institutions. those institutions in turn, sell the coins to dealers, who sell them to the public, with no record and ofr cash moeny of the public elects to buy em that way... ( In fact most dealers won't even do "paper trail" transacation with credit card for bullion because of the 3 to 5% cut that the credit card processors get. Pretty deep cut when they're marking the coins up only One percent or so! )

Nick...er...Sharefin - Are there Funds out there that are not Bull but Bear? How do I say it? Like your recent post of the Tice group who are 70% short, etc. They probably don't call them funds. Rephrased, are there managers of funds who concentrate primarily on shorting the markets? Is this totally stoopid? I don't 'speak' stox...

thanks in advance...

away...to dream up more stoopid stuff

rightlessbulb

Given the fact that there is going to be a huge exodus from the market in the US I have been wondering the following. Everyone talks about the loss of tax revenue going to the govt from the stock market.

But what is the tax on the trillions that will be leaving early? Especially if the danger level hits in a massive way before January 1, 1998.

This would be a huge amount of money.

Anybody venture a guess.

I got information on Swedish teletext ( tv ) that the silver went down at least 70cent today.
Is that possible?
Are there any official market open today?
I would be very happy if someone answared my questions.

Wow Sheller! And here I thought lightening was caused by friction generated between colliding atoms in clouds building up a charge of excess electrons which are then discharged along a conductive path of atmospheric particulates!! And that ball lightening was just one manifestation of this basic physics effect. So glad all the scientists that told me this nonsensical fairy tale can now be set straight on the "real" cause of lightening.

I'm puzzled though, if lightening is cause as you say, how come it only occurs when we have those friction generating sources causing those free electrons to get rubbed off onto other atoms resulting in a discharge from the unbalanced source when the potential builds to a voltage that exceeds the ability of atmosphere to resist it? Hmmmmm, I'll have to go back and consult with Newton on this tonight......

Mike Sheller: Your comments about ball lightning are interesting. My terminology would have been different, but the essence is the same. The physics of ball lightning is clearly not conventional!

Kiwi and MS: I have a more important question, brought up by Kiwi. Near Nov 30, Jupiter, the Sun, Neptune and Venus will be on one side of the earth, and Saturn and the moon on the other. The physical science types such as Kiwi nad myself expect some unusual gravitational perturbations ( tides ) .

Could you tell us when to expect turning points from your Astrological viewpoint?

The markets appear to be ready for a downturn very soon - either short term or long term. Asian international news not too good, either.

Thanks

Thanks for the info. about CEF. That's probably a good way to go. No additional costs. Only I've been watching it for a few years and it looks as if it will never get out of its own way.

AN ENIGMA WRAPPED IN AN ANOMALY -

Something is amiss - something is causing this anomaly rapped in an enigma. Some force - external to the market - is controlling the price of the noble metal. Something is forcing it to be range bound! This begs the following questions: 1 ) By whom? and 2 ) Why?

There only one entity, which has both means and motive for the job: Central Banks. And Who is the MOTHER OF ALL CENTRAL BANKS: Federal Reserve Bank of New York! Hard to believe, BUT TRUE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron112297.html

Actually Tolerant, one of the reasons for the lower than predicted deficit is that tax revenues from stock transactions are way up due to increased volume on the big board.

Then we have the effect of Congressional tax relief bill which lowered the capital gains tax rate beginning Jan 1, which will encourage some of the long term investors to sell and take their profits remains to be seen whether increased selling will offset lowered cap. gains rate though. Personally I think the lowered rate will be short term bearish, long term bullish as it rewards investors in the market in the long run.

One place that congress DID do us metals investors a dis service is that coin purchases will still be taxed at the OLD capital gains tax rate!! Now that is unfair and criticism of the Govt. on this one is quite warranted IMNHO.

Welcome Home Mike!!

away

happy

I was just curious. If people get spooked and start selling everything, no matter what the ramifications. Its going to be interesting to watch the next sixty days go by.

LGB2_A: Your description is correct as far as it goes relative to matterforms and pehonmena that can be quantified and measured PRESENTLY. But we are still dealing with MANIFESTATIONS here. You must consider what the impulsive "energy" IS behind the CHARGES that are imparted to matter units. This is the true mystery, I am sure you'll agree. In other words, where does the charge come from? Does friction release the intangible energy by disrupting matter patterns? Is the energy essentially matter as well, or a finer state of matter, or something ELSE? So, for instance, in a metaphysical sense, if you are saying that electromagnetic phenomena is a quality of matter, then perhaps you are also of the school that takes the position that thought is a property or activity of the brain. What I am saying is that there is another side to all of these equations that can shed light on the entire picture for both metaphysical theoreticists ( like Newton, Einstein ) and physical scientists ( like Newton, Einstein ) . A way to conceive of what I'm saying is to postulate, in your case just for a moment of course, that the brain is a manifestation of THOUGHT, and not the other, more commonly conceived, way around. The brain is the organized structure in matter that is the ORGAN of thought in the BODY, but is not the ORIGINATOR of thought. Indeed, it would take a marvelous MIND to think of creating the superb structure of the brain as a physical machine. Indicating that the thought, and the plan, must come before the physical manifestation. And, of course, somewhere between the thought and the manifestation in matter as a tangible phenomenon, must be an impulse, an "energy" if you will, of creation. Which comes first, my dear LGB2_A, is the question, is it not? Thought or Brain? Brain or Thought? By the way, I have been away from Kitco for a while. Are you any relation to the LGB who promised at his very word of honor to leave and never post again?

Must you comment on everything??? Is there nothing that you are not an expert on??!?? What a f#*$&N Horses Ass!!

U No Whooopoo I'm talkin' about....btw, I need to put up some rain gutters on my house. Can you fill up some bandwidth with your wonderful personality with the best way to tackle this?? And I also would like to sod some areas in my backyard. Can you comment on that too?? What would be the best grass to use?? St gaudins grass or american eagle grass?? I wait on the edge of my seat for your stupid-ass reply.

away..to bang my head on concrete....or to read LGB posts....hmmm...I think I'll bang my head



sorry bart for the outburst...i needed it...now i'll go...

AWAY!

Thanks for the Zurich axioms and the Malakoff site. Those of us who have been watching the stock market in disbelief may find the following exerpt from the Malakoff site interesting: http://www.malakoff.com/dow.htm

"A large percentage of mutual fund buyers buy the funds because they dont trust stocks. Thats correct. They wouldnt buy stocks on a bet. But mutual funds. Theyre okay. Their broker told them so. Ask around. See if we arent speaking the truth. Many, if not most, who own mutual funds will be surprised when you tell them what it is they really own. One would almost say that all the extravagances which lunacy could devise are running wild in America today. This mutual fund business is a sure sign. Dont these people realize that they arent worth $6.5 trillion ( the value of the Wilshire 5000, the total of all stocks on the stock market ) ? Dont they get it? Just as the MS65 Silver Dollar buyers of 1986-7 have seen their touted investments evaporate from $750+ to todays level of $90 to $100, so too the mutual fund owners are holding an empty cardboard box. Theyve thrown their money into itthe boxmutual fundsstocksand continue to do so; but when the day comes for them to realize their gains as the quaint phrase goes, theyll find, like their Silver Dollar-brethren, that theyve come up empty."

There is more and more tension between isrial and the arab world, could our carriers be there for that reason ?

JTF: I don't know what ephemeris kiwi uses, but mine shows the following on November 30: Sun 7 degrees Sagittarius, Moon 6 Sagittarius, Venus 22 Capricorn, Jupiter 16 Aquarius, Saturn 13 Aries, and Neptune 27 Capricorn ( you did say he mentioned Neptune? ) . Anyhow, there doesn't seem to me to be anything too oppositional or unusual here. The Moon, being in exact conjunction with the Sun on that day, can hardly be seen as being on the other side of the Earth as the Sun. But what do I know? As for effects, I have stated before that I can only deal with planetary aspects and angles as they relate to an established horoscope. Otherwise, I leave the diagnosis of free standing celestial phenomena to more astute observers of the heavens, like Steve, and others. Now give me a birthday or an incorporation date, and that's another story.

Mike Sheller: Your post deserves a better response.

My spin ( no pun intended ) on your post and mine is the following:

All around us us a sea of "zero-point quantum energy". We cannot see it because it is virtual, like the Dirac sea of electrons ( this part is mainstream physics ) . All the "negatives" are balanced by "positives", matter and antimatter, etc. Solid state physics routinely discusses the presence of "holes" or positive electrons, without which our computers would not work. No transisters without doped P and N semiconductors. Who is to say these virtual theoretical constructs ( the holes ) are not real in some sense as well? Also mainstream is the idea that hydrogen ( protons ) can form in empty space -- a low probability, of course, but possible in those vast reaches of emptiness. Much much more vast than the pacific ocean to our earlier explorers.

A powerful electrical storm could very well lift some of this sea of virtual quantum energy to an energy level where it could be seen. One would expect this energy to be very low energy density compared to condensed matter, given the energy density of the driving energy source ( the lighning bolt ) . The ball lightning that sometimes appears could very well be partially condensed "primordial soup" from which hard condensed matter such as protons and electrons does form, presumably at a much higher probability than in outer space. Unfortunately, I doubt that proton or electron formation could be detected with our current electronic equipment, given the electrical turmoil near a bolt of lightning. But then -- in a laboratory, perhaps one could detect small quantities of antimatter -- interesting thought isn't it!

Harold Urey's Nobel Prize-winning experiment, with a twist!

How about antimatter, as well as aminoacids?

Skylark: Historically, crashes tend to occur in September and October most often. Next, are March and February. With that said, given the precarious state of the global financial system, a crash could happen at any time -- with very little forewarning.

Mike Sheller what do you see coming up or around Thanksgiving? Do you happoen to know what Arch Crawford thinks about the coming week? Thanks in advance.

The value of the shock market just isn't there. Even though the vast majority of money in the market ( a misnomer ) went in at high levels, it won't be coming out at those levels. It will evaporate and go to money heaven. It is not liquid, it is stuck in an illiquidity trap.

Thanks for responding to my question about TVX. Blanchard's site looks

like a very good resource.

I heard Mr. Crawford on CNBC puppet vision. He specifically stated the time right at 27th through the 1st as bad, very bad in terms of something with the planets and such.

He seems to be a very bright and articulate individual. Sorry I have no better input for you. I caught the end of the interview.

IMF Bailout Angers South Korea
11.15 a.m. ET ( 1615 GMT ) November 22, 1997

By Sang-Hun Choe, Associated Press

SEOUL, South Korea  Like revelers at the end of a long binge, South Koreans woke up Saturday to the awful realization that the party's over and the headache is about to begin.

The morning's headlines lamented a "National Bankruptcy" and a "Humiliating International Trusteeship" the news that South Korea will have to accept an International Monetary Fund bailout of its foundering economy.

The most prevalent response: shock, humiliation and anger.

"I am so mad about what happened to our economy that I want to kick those responsible in the groin," small businessman Lee Moon-hee, 50, said, jerking his right foot into the air.

Late Friday night, South Korea announced it was asking the IMF to organize a $20 billion-plus bailout package. In exchange, the IMF is likely to order deep spending cuts, lower import tariffs, higher domestic taxes, the elimination of shaky banks, and the forfeiture of some national decision-making power to lenders.

It was bitter medicine for a country proud of its stunning rise out of the ruins and poverty of the Korean War to become the world's 11th-largest economy.

The stock market's key index plunged 20.64 points, or 4 percent, to close today's half-day session at 485.43, as investors worried that the IMF loan would be coupled with strict controls that could bring more hard times.

In a nationally televised speech, President Kim Young-sam apologized for the financial mess he soon will be leaving to a new administration, spoke of hardships to be borne and urged the people to work to restore the nation's economic health.

"It is time to tighten our belt again. The coming economic restructuring will involve bone-carving pain," he said. "But we must show the world our determination that we can overcome this crisis."

The nation's crowded capital, Seoul, went about its routine. Youngsters strutted with mobile telephones and designer handbags. Glitzy department stores were stacked with goods and shoppers.

But the mood among individual citizens was somber. From taxi drivers to shop clerks, they all wondered how their Asian Tiger economy had been reduced to a case study of an economic boom gone wrong.

"I am so ashamed of our country and economic ministers," said Park Sung-hwa, 25, a sportswear clerk at Seoul's Lotte Department Store.

Chung Soon-ae, 67, a cleaning woman in a high-rise building, said, "We should never borrow the money even if we go hungry. I fear that prices will rise further and poor people like me get poorer."

When it came to whom to blame, all spoke in once voice: corrupt politicians and businessmen who had wheeled and dealed during South Korea's boom years with little thought of the consequences.

"We have built up our nation for the past 40 years with sweat and sacrifice, and those corrupt people have wasted all our efforts," taxi driver Ahn Jong-nam, 56, said.

South Korea's stunning economic growth rates  an average 8 percent annually over the past two decades  were largely fueled by the fast expansion of a dozen family-controlled conglomerates.

Past military-ruled governments provided cheap loans, tax breaks and other benefits to help the corporate giants to expand and mass-produce cars, television sets, microchips, petroleum products and a host of other goods.

That strategy helped South Korea become a trade giant. The business groups account for half of South Korea's industrial output and lead its export-driven economy. They supply one-quarter of the world's computer memory chips and account for about 30 percent of the commercial shipbuilding orders.

But it also left its legacy. Two former presidents  Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo  are now behind bars for collecting millions of dollars in bribes from businessmen. Hundreds of businessmen, politicians and Cabinet ministers have been convicted of corruption.

The economic boom also triggered unbridled land speculation and ruthless exploitation of the environment. In Korea, bribes to traffic police and teachers were considered as necessary as tips.

The problem came to a head this year when the economy slowed down, sales dropped, and some of the weaker conglomerates went belly up, saddling banks with $26 billion in bad loans.

AN ENIGMA WRAPPED IN AN ANOMALY -

Something is amiss - something is causing this anomaly rapped in an enigma. Some force - external to the market - is controlling the price of the noble metal. Something is forcing it to be range bound! This begs the following questions: 1 ) By whom? and 2 ) Why?

There only one entity, which has both means and motive for the job: Central Banks. And Who is the MOTHER OF ALL CENTRAL BANKS: Federal Reserve Bank of New York! Hard to believe, BUT TRUE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron112297.html

JTF: I really must print out your last post and study it for a week to do your knowledge justice. But let me shoot from the hip anyhow, 'cause I'm tired and just goofing here. The question arises, naturally, "From whence does the "powerful electrical storm" arise out of your postulated sea of equally polarized and equal amounts of matter units?
But we are getting warm. In the best sense of Percivillian metaphysics, and Blavatskian anthropology, can we instead conceive of an all-penetrating, all-surrounding sea of units that are EACH and ALL equally BALANCED. Thus, these units are instantaneously responsive to intelligent command, rather than off to pursue an agenda of their own as they are here on Earth, where each is imbalanced as to "positive" or "negative" charge. And what IS a positive charge, or a negative one? From whence do they come? I can always count on you to run with the ball lightning JTF!

Take a peek at Oro Peru, I personally own stock and feel that it is very cheap at its current price. Symbol - OROP - Canada

Good hunting.

Such eloquence! Such passion! We knew LGB was your obsession, but we are constantly amazed at the frothy outpouring of sweet whispers and loving caresses with which you crown the object of your adulation. You don't pay me any attention, except when I "act out" and make ludicrous predictions for gold's price. It's not good to be ignored and rejected. ;- )

The latest post. My reaction to what those thieves are doing is simple. Lets storm the walls. I'll dive on the bayonets so the rest of you can get those bastards.

Mike Sheller, Kiwi: Re: my 20:45 Sorry -- I was looking at Nov 30,1971. Must have reset my Ephemeris. On Nov 30, 1997, it looks like the Sun,Moon ( new ) , and Pluto are all nearly in conjuction, whereas Jupiter and Saturn are neither in opposition or conjuction. I guess Kiwi's point was that most of the mass of the celestial bodies is on one side of the earth, and I apologize for confusing everyone. This is why one always repeats experiments, just to make sure the experimenter got everything right!

My take on the correct date is that the planetary alignment is not so tight that we that we will have very strong tidal effects. Probably not the biggest spring or neap tides of the year, but I do not have any tide tables readily at hand to confirm this.

Apologies again for the confusion.

A. GOOSE: Around Thanksgiving I see coming up a nice roast Turkey breast, with mushroom/bread stuffing, cranberry sauce, and lots of pumpkin pie. And of course an evening Martini. Seriously, though, I don't know what Arch is up to these days. He is just too esoteric for me sometimes, anyhow. But I do know he is one of the best market predictors around, and has been for years. My own work has picked up some possibilities for early next week. Here is an excerpt from a reply to JTF earlier in the month when talk turned to Japan. For what it's worth, I repeat it here:

Sat Nov 8 1997 10:17

JTF: Seeing as you mentioned watching Japan more closely, I took a look at its national horoscope. You may want to consider the following: The major outer planets are of course a background situation, and we can guess what that background signifies as possibility and actuality. However, Mars is interesting to watch as it moves fairly quickly, and its aspects very often coincide with short-term triggers for major background events. In this light, transiting Mars will square ( ordinarily stressful 90 degree angle ) Japan's Mercury in the 2nd House on November 24, 25 ( Mon & Tues ) . Mars will be at 11 Capricorn, with Japan's Natal Mercury at 11 Aries. Mars will also be moving into opposition with the Moon in the Yen's First Trade futures chart at 13 Cancer. Coincidentally with that, Mars also squares NYSE Midheaven ( 10.49 Aries ) as well. And Mars also will be moving into opposition with USA's Sun ( 13 Cancer ) and, as extra added spice, conjuncting OPEC's Saturn.

Mars also conjuncts the Comex Gold Futures Contract First Trade chart Sun, and Sugar's first trade chart Sun ( though each "born" 5 years apart, they share the same Sun position - 11 Capricorn ) . We have, in the past, discussed the correlation with moves in Sugar and moves in Gold. The gently bulling sugar price currently may be a portent of something ahead for gold. There are a few other coincidences from this fleeting, but interesting, Mars position, but these are enough to ponder. There's potentially something for everyone here. Besides, I wouldn't want to be accused of covering all bets so that "one of them" comes "true."

JTF: There's an old Hindu saying that " a mistake in an ephemeris is as grave a sin as the murder of a Brahmin." Graver if you ask me. But you are of course forgiven and excused. Now as for November 1971, I think I can make a few predictions there...

Mike Sheller: Thanks for your repost. Harder to get older Kitco stuff with the new site. Got to run.

EB-Relax or ex-lax What did Sheller say?Last Time ,This Time MMMMM Very Confused but LGB Knows Let's Wait.Happy Trails

AN ENIGMA WRAPPED IN AN ANOMALY - is excellent reading!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron112297.html

Saul and Skylark: Thanks for your comments. For an insight of who is buying and selling, the Federal Reserve publication: "Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States" is an excellent source. To order, write to: Publications Services, Stop 127, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, 20th Street and Constitution Ave. N.W., Washington, DC -- or call ( 202 ) -452-3244.

In their September 1997 issue, for the year ending December 1996, the Fed reports the following flows:

On balance ( IPOs and other issues, less corporate buy-backs ) , corporations sold a meager $4 billion in equities.

Mutual-fund investors bought a whopping $193 billion worth of stocks.

Insurance companies bought $44 billion worth of stocks.

State and local government retirement funds bought $54 billion worth of stocks.

But, for every buyer, there's a seller. Who were the sellers?

Banks, savings institutions, and bank personal trusts sold $21 billion worth of stocks.

Private pension funds ( which includes 401k's ) sold $2 billion on balance.

Households ( which includes all individual investors, i.e., corporate officials as well as smaller investors ) sold a staggering $273 billion worth of stocks.

The balance was attributable to overseas investors and other smaller groups of investors.

For the first half of 1997, the figures are approximately the same.

The evidence from sources such as "The Wall Street Journal" suggest that corporate insiders ( i.e., households ) have continued to sell at record paces during the past few months.

Mike Sheller

How about a chart for the IMF?

I'm not sure which date you'd chose, here are some possibles:

1944 July 122 IMF and World Bank Articles of Agreement formulated at the International Monetary and Financial Conference, Bretton Woods, New Hampshire.

1945 December 27 Articles of Agreement enter into force upon signature by 29 governments, representing 80 percent of original quotas.

1946 March 818 Inaugural meeting of Board of Governors in Savannah, Georgia: by-laws adopted, agreement to locate IMF headquarters in Washington, first Executive Directors elected.

May 6 Twelve Executive Directorsfive appointed and seven electedhold inaugural meeting in Washington.
September 27October 5 First Annual Meetings of Boards of Governors of IMF and World Bank in Washington.

1947 March 1 IMF begins operations.
May 8 First drawing from IMF ( by France ) .


Now, that's something to cut your teeth into?

I shall not make my stomach a graveyard for dead animals
George Bernard Shaw

By the way, ( according to Federal Reserve statistics ) it's important to add that during 1992-93, corporations sold around $100 billion worth of equities. During 1994-97, that dropped close to zero.

The obvious question is: Did corporations suddenly have a reduced need for capital during 1994-97? The answer is -- NO.

During 1992-94, corporations issued around $200 billion in bonds. During 1995-97, that jumped to $300 billion. In other words, corporations were using bonds ( debt ) to buy back their stock ( equity ) .

"Shock"market, eh? Freudian slip, typo, or intentional? BTW, I love the expression, "money heaven." Yes, when everyone heads for the exits, it will not be a pretty sight.

tolerant1 ( jsh ) ID#31868:

How do you get a quote on that stock ( Symbol - OROP - Canada ) . For instance on yahoo I would enter at. for athlone on the vancouver exchange. What do I type for canada ??? Maybe a silly question.

that would be at.v for the vancouver exchange.

MoReGold: An excellent posting about South Korea. Unfortunately, what happened in South Korea is about the same as happened in every other country in the world. A belated realization that banks over-lended, corporations over-built, and politicians over-promised will hit one country after another.

The final reaction will be economic collapse and stock market crashes around the globe.

EB regarding your 20:37 post. Rydex Series Trust has a bear market fund called the URSA Fund. They also have bear market bond fund called the JUNO Fund. I think that Robertson-Stevens has a bear market fund called the Contrarian Fund. Does anyone know of a bear market gold fund? It would really have been useful these past few months.

Looking at the weekly DXY chart it looks as if we are in the beginning stages of a decline. Decline pattern looks similar to Feb-April 1994. If we follow this pattern then there is much downside left. Stochastic showed negative divergence during August highs and has since then trended down to the 25% area. I think the odds of a continued decline in the DXY are high right now. If this doesn't help gold then I don't know what will.

Not a typo, but please excuse future typos in advance! Trying to get out of equities will be like Hoover Dam going through a garden hose. Due to the current inefficient ( caused by the NY Fed! ) market for gold, the gold price will skyrocket when just marginal amounts of the remnants of the equity market go into it. Although I do not have a clear crystal ball, I am fully expecting the dollar price to drastically fall against gold in the near future.

The Purrfect numithmatithts thite?

hope not posted before

http://fly.hiway.net/~hfears/coins/coins.htm

Ted-Welcome Back to the Straight-Hearted,The Insane and all your friends at Kitco.Did we miss The Big Enchilada from the U.S.A ? Come to Ontario the place of champions "We love shorting abx ,pdg ,bgo ,etc..Buy a big house for free.It's great to be Canadian if you live in Ontario.Happy Trails.

AURATOR: You ARE a stern taskmaster, aren't you. Re the IMF, I guess I would go with the 27 Dec 1945 "Articles of Agreement enter into force by signature" date. Unless one can know the time of day, it doesn't matter to know where this took place. A Solar chart will do fine ( it's what I've used on Greenspan and it works very well - just not accurate for the Moon and house cusps, but dandy for the planets ) . Can't have everything. Will repair to the other 'puter and crank 'er out for a look see. Don't hold yer breath.

Highrise That TVX Funding post on Friday,

How many of the Group are NOT ON THE OR ASSOCIATED WITH LBMA??


TORONTO-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Nov. 21, 1997--TVX Gold Inc. (
TSE:TVX. - news; ME:TVX. - news; NYSE:TVX - news ) TVX Gold
Inc.
announced today that it has successfully completed a US$180 million
Senior Revolving Credit Facility with a group of major International
financial institutions. The syndicate was led by The Chase Manhattan Bank
of Canada, acting as Administrative Agent for the Facility, with Royal
Bank of Canada [NYSE:RY - news] and Barclays Bank PLC acting as
Syndication Agent and Documentation Agent respectively. In addition, the
banking syndicate includes BT Bank of Canada, Credit Lyonnais Canada,
Deutsche Bank Canada, N.M. Rothschild & Sons Ltd., The Toronto
Dominion Bank, Paribas Bank of Canada and Republic National Bank of
New York


aurator

I have done a bit of searching here too. This is what I have found --
1. Prudent Bear Fund - David Tice - 1-888-778-2327
-tends to short tech stocks and stays away from hard asset plays
like gold stocks

2. Rydex Ursa - 1-800-820-0888.
-Tries to "inverse" mirror the stock market ( s&p I think )

3. Contrarian Fund - Paul Stephens - 1-800-766-3863
-a hedge fund - tries to short weak stocks and buy out of
favor stocks ( typically 30% short, 20% cash, 50% long )
-right now is short hi tech, and is long in resources
( gold, oil, aluminum, nickel ) , but could change 5 yrs from now

4. Cundill Value Fund - in Canada -
-follows Benjamin Graham value investing
-in business for 22 years - 18% avg annual compound
-only 1 losing year out of 22
-currently has s&p put options, HK put options
( shorts overvalued )
-long in silver futures, Japan, France,30% in cash

Of course, there are also managed futures,which would not be correlated to stocks, and could take long/short positions - but I have heard pros/cons about these - not sure about them.

Hope this helps...

Snow still coming down and all is well here except I'm on verge of collapse----got relatives in Ontario and yup it ain't Cape Breton~~~~~~~~
Back to the recliner........

Public funds for rescue of financial institutions? That will not sit well with the Japanese public. Can you blame them for not wanting to pour their hard earned savings down a financial black hole? Yet, if they don't use public funds, the system cascades in a collapse. How do they get out of this mess? My guess, they go ahead and use the public funds and bring on the wrath of the public. Japan's political, economic, and social structures, relatively stable for the last 50 years, may undergo a radical change in the aftermath of this debacle. Any thoughts welcomed.

If Pluto had a Thought what would it be ? Save me for I die to be reborn the new Tiger , The Punisher of the West that for so long fed me the pearls of capitalism . Forgive me ,for I have sinned and used paper for all my ends.Give me help, give me free value, let me pick the pockets of the world and thank you now and forever my friends and suckers of I.M.F. P.S Everyday people pay and pay and pay.Good Night.

EB, this love hate thing has gotta stop! besides, Sheller and JTF have taken over as site love affair of the century. May their metaphisical excursions last forever...or as long as the Planets and starts are able to give us instructions on the Yin and Yang of lightning.

OK, so I've been an insufferable BOOR on the site. I admit it, but you DID indulge in a rather pedestrian outburst there dude! However, "sticks and stones..." What am I supposed to do as a rocket scientist? Just let any old nonsense fly by without comment?

And in my own defense.... Have I not provided any "on topic" comments and tidbits today? Hmmmm? Yes, OK, Horses Ass, correctamundo, weinnie, Giver of advice on all subjects, expert in all things, omniscient, omnipresent, omnipotent, and stirrer of all pots. There, ya happy now????

LGB: Would you follow this link to the los alamos national lab and report back? Either this is just another crackpot cold fusion idea or it is a possible breakthrough in warm fusion using palladium...or another crackpot conspiracy, eh ; )
http://wwwnde.esa.lanl.gov/cf/tritweb.htm palladium

Has anyone read of a man named Jonathan May? Comment to follow.

223, Just read through the paper. It appeasr to me that the methodology, assumptions, controls, test equipment, variables, etc. were quite well controlled. the conclusions appear quite valid as far as I can tell. I worked in High density Plasma for a year at a Semiconductor equipment manufacturer, and it can definitely produce some very strange phenomona with various materials amd gasses.

The real test as to the validity of this paper ( as with all scientific hypothesis and data ) is whether it will be reproducible with another independant team, utilizing the same type of experiments and methods. If so, maybe we're closer than we think to producing Gold from Seawater eh??

( wouldn't THAT be a disastor for GoldBugs!! But maybe then we'd have enough Gold to go back to a Gold standard!! )

P.S. Apologies EB for commenting on 223's post. by the way, try some enriched nitrogen on that grass and forget the mulch you were going to use and make sure the.... Oh forget it!!!

Also, they will quietly find buyers for their US debt holdings. It is in their interest to keep this hushed up. If it got out that Japan was liquidating their US Treasury holdings, the US Bond market would panic. The US and Japan have a shared interest in preventing that from happening. So does China, for that matter. Who will buy these Treasuries? This might be a statistic to pay attention to.

This was written: To find the answer to the LBMA ,

Follow the connection from London, to South Africa, to the

Middle East, and on to Asia

Mr. Markus Angelicus,

I read the gold-eagle write. You have made the link between

London ( LBMA ) and South Africa .

Also:

Many look to the middle east and say they control the oil market

no more. I say you see not what is in front of your eyes!

They do not have to keep oil up in price to control it.

One can gain more wealth by keeping oil down than by driving it

up, much more! And what is the value of this type of manipulation?

It is measured in gold! Tell me now, what gain is there to destroy

the world economy with high cost oil when they will provide you

gold instead?

But what value gold? All say it is only a commodity subject to

supply and demand! Understand me, Demand and supply

is written by BIS and $15 oil can cost $250 gold or $10,000 gold,

whatever is required! $250 gold and LBMA will live! $10,000 gold

and LBMA is sacrificed!

But, it will never come to this. The oil understanding was broken by

the Asians. More gold has been sold than can ever be covered! This

market is not the same as the past. One day gold will start up and

BIS will deal with it the only way possible!

Auric G'day, actually I doubt the Japanese public would react like that at all,.. from what I understand and have read, and can easily be corrected on. the Japanese will accept that the government, by mobilising the considerable combined forces of all the yakuza ( ? ) the banks insurance companies, the brokers and focussing on a remedy, no, I think that the only people who will be blamed for this will be the Americans. rightly or wrongly, that's the way they think, for goodness sake, The Japanese blamed the USA for the Kanto Earthquake in Tokyo, 1 Sept 1923, they believed the US had invented an earthquake machine. Oh, you weren't the first to be blamed. It appears that the survivors of the earthquakes and fires first blamed the Koreans, so Japanese mobs put to death thousands of Koreans.. It's just that you americans were the last scapegoats, and are easy targets.

Has anyone heard anything about yesterday's NYSE - SEC meeting
regarding changing the trading curbs?

Thanks, since my last physics course was as an undergraduate, I wasn't sure if this was legit. But I still wonder, if it was the plasma, why would it just work with palladium. If it was just the plasma, then we'd get tritium formation every time there was a thunderstorm. BTW, do you think it could make the price go up? That's the BIG question for a fundamentalist like me.
You recall the big Pd price bubble when the Pons/Fleischman affair came to light, even with no real verification from others.

Sheller re your 21:05 question of "Where is the Old LGB who promised not to post" The Old LGB was killed in a terrible accident due to going out dancing on a day that was unfavorable per his horoscope. He indeed quit posting and the negative karma from same helped cause his demise.

When the Ghost of the old "LGB" discovered that Mr. Puetz was making statements on this forum that a certain "Karlito" and "Gus" were DEFINTELY LGB, and therefoe LGB had no character, ( all of ehich proved as incorrect as Mr. Puetz's market calls do ) then the Ghost of LGB, incarnated my body and I have been posting in his place ever since.

Hope this explains everything.

( P.S. Ghost of LGB told me to tell you that he DOES believe in some unexplainable forces in spite of his scientific beliefs. For example, what force holds the atoms in place? And why is it so powerful when said atoms are slip apart? What is the source of THAT force? OK OK I know, it comes from the great beyond that permeates the stars and universe and and.... )

Oh yes 223, I remember "You recall the big Pd price bubble when the Pons/Fleischman affair came to light, even with no real verification from others." bubble well. That's why well designed studies, independantly verfified are so important. It's also why I'm so quick to be critical of anyone making wild claims which are obviously verifiable through a well controlled study, yet never verified! ( Such as Astrology and Full Moon effect science for example...! )

When we subject "TCM" for example ( Traditional Chinese medicine ) to the cold hard scrutiny of study, compare it's efficacy to modern medicine's methods for SPECIFIC maladies using large control groups, large controlled and compensated studies, then we find "TCM" virtually useless. yet is is REVERED in the West in spite of NO OBJECTIVE EVIDENCE to commend it! And the evidence would be SO EASY to produce if said methods were effective!

As always, ,the credo of the scientific skeptic is "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence to be believed" The burden of proof is never on the rational mind to accept irrational claims. It's the other way around.

One new day gold will begin a rise that will end its use as a trading

medium. This reevaluation will end a tradition in London. No gold house

will make a market that has no sellers, official world gold trade will end for many years! And with it will go the last true value to trade

for oil. Oil will skyrocket in all currencies. Those who have metal

will learn its value in oil. All things in life change, the world will not be the same.

http://www.canada-stockwatch.com

enter OROP and voila'

Well, the kitco wurld's gonna go topsy turvy in 15 minutes or so, and I know that Bart is not an antipodeanist ( you know, like a .. ) and this is not done on porpoise...

Here some URLs I dug up


Colleeen, John Disney you may be interested?

http://www.resbank.co.za/govaddress/ad280696.html
SEVENTY-FIVE YEARS OF CENTRAL BANKING IN SOUTH AFRICA

On LBMA

Credit Lyonnais Rouse Limited
http://www.clrouse.co.uk/clrbulln.htm


Republic National Bank
of New York

http://www.denvergold.org/members/republic.htm

Money in US History
Interesting Essay
http://www.ex.ac.uk/%7ERDavies/arian/northamerica.html

LGB_1_2_3 .As I was about to leave into the world of dreams I took one last look at Kitco for some new profound insight into the Gold markets and found you . Shocking as this might seem I found you humorous but still the usual Space-Invader Nerd . Happy Trails P.S.Ted "Get some Rest" The Golden Days will soon be back.

Excellent Scam/Scandal/Skulduggery Site

http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/scandals.html