Vronsky: I think you and I think alike about AG. A knowledgable person with the right ideas about money ( read gold standard ) caught up in the turmoil of the times. I am convinced he is doing all he can. If he does resign ( which I doubt ) that will be bad news indeed, because it will imply that he has run out of ideas.

The run up in silver last week was driven primarily by a rumor that George Soros has been buying up silver quietly and would take delivery of 20 - 30 million ounces next week. If this were true, the feared run on COMEX stocks is underway and silver would explode above $6.00.

A great story, that, but one that does little to inspire confidence in the current bull run. On the face of it, the story has all the markings of a bull trap and a sucker play to get the market loaded with longs, then crush them all like the insolent and greedy little bugs they are.

I think I used the term "vicious" to describe the potential for a quick and nasty ( for those of us holding shorts ) run up in silver last week Since COMEX and NYMEX are closed Friday, first delivery notice for the December contract is Wednesday, a trading day cut short by the holiday schedule. If the squeeze is on, we'll see it by then, if the rally fails, look for another test of the recent lows 4.70 - 4.80.

I'm very suspicious of the warehouse numbers and do not believe they reflect the true amount of silver available for delivery. The Soros story is even less likely; the man wants profits, not silver. Why take delivery instead of profits on some very fat longs? If silver doesn't break out by Wednesday, I'll look to add new shorts.

Gold is still dead for the rest of the year, doomed for new lows. Platinum will reward those who stay with it. We have seen $600 + platinum many times before, it would not be an extraordinary event to see it again, and soon.

We take the obvious and reverse it-- and thus reverse the role of life

- unknown - Japanese philosophy

For info on CML go to RCM web page ,dealers sell at $35-40 over spot

Auric: I've been "lurking" around this site for a few months now gathering information and enjoying the discourse, thinking that those who post here must be knowledgeable but.... please don't misinform about the silver content of a 65-69 half dollar. These 40% silver clads have .14789 ozs. of silver. Your numbers are all screwed up!

Some of your posts tonight make alot of sense. For example, the one about not getting to uptight about the SE Asian situation. It is in the timing, and buying the precious metals on bad news will fail most of the time, unless gold has truly shifted from bear to bull. My impression is that the markets are heading south, and so will gold, until the market correction ( crash ) is over.

I think this is the first time I've ever read one of your posts actually say that gold prices go in cycles, and that it will eventually go up.

How about making some comments about what the conditions might be for the gold bear to become bullish?

In response to the many e-mails and publics questions about the Mountie:

The Mountie was released about 3 weeks ago to little fanfare. It is an interesting looking one ounce .9999 gold coin that has 12 flat sides instead of the traditional round coin. Queen Elizabeth is on the obverse and a Mountie atop a charging steed on the reverse. This is not a particularly attractive coin but it does have the virtue of a $310 floor. The Royal Canadian Mint will guaranteed buyback for $310 regardless of the price of gold at anytime until 1/1/2000. This built in put translates into a pretty hefty premium of about $30 over spot. With other bullion coins selling about 14 - 15 dollars over spot, the premium is double that of coins like the Maple Leaf and the Vienna Philharmonic.

I like the idea of the limited downsize risk. My clients now have a vehicle to invest in gold with no margin calls, guaranteed. The premium is high on the buy but the buy-back is only 10 dollars lower, so the spread on the Mountie is actually less than other bullion coins.

If anyone has any questions, feel free to e-mail me at rjd@pacbell.net

British Telecom Managers Ignore Y2K Threat

http://www.techweb.com/wire/news/1997/11/1124y2k.html

European Nations Head For Year 2000 Disaster

http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?WIR1997110510

Small Businesses Head For Year 2000 Disaster

http://www.techweb.com/wire/news/1997/10/1022y2k.html

Japanese Delay Year 2000 Fix, Spark Western Alarm

http://www.techweb.com/wire/news/1997/10/10202000.html

Most Fortune 500s Not Working On Year 2000 Fix

http://www.techweb.com/wire/news/1997/10/1010y2k.html

Cavender-

An easier way to acces the value of silver clad halves:

$1000 face value = 295 ounces of silver.

Pre 1965 90% silver coins:

$1000 face value = 715 ounces of silver.

the paper-tiger, has the japanese riders-inside-her....
and the pangs of hunger drive her on....

there are many stops to be made and many debts to pay....

chaos and flux have made their move....

the money changers and paper hangers day has arrived....
let the games begin....again.

hey ted-vos is los?

cherokee!; ) master-of-the-ssm-----en-capsulator-of-the-capsules----

Nikkei futures
http://www.cme.com/market/quote/.Small/nk.html


West Pacific weather -
http://www.ece.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/globehlast.gif

I expect the Japanese market to crash right through 14000 and it will go much lower, much. 10000 will look high as time passes. The USA, yada, yada, yada, delusional expectations, propped up by purchase of debt.

Deflation here we come. Get ready, get set, go broke.

THE MALAYSIAN JAM
The growing negative wealth effect coming from the stock market is set to play a much larger direct part in the Malaysian depression of 1998 and 1999.
http://home1.pacific.net.sg/~viclim/inv00022.htm

FDIC sounds warning on what it considers risky commercial loans
Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press

WASHINGTON ( November 24, 1997 11:59 p.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) -- Sounding an early warning, a leading regulator says some banks are increasingly making what he says are risky loans for commercial real estate and construction projects.

Cavender--No intention to deceive intended. You are indeed correct. Each 65 to 69 clad half contains about .15 oz. Silver, NOT .316 as I posted. The rest of the figures concerning the Silver content of $1000 face value, and around $3.10 as the price of Silver at which the face value is worth the Silver content, I believe are correct. The point I was making is that these coins provide a downside protection of about $3.00, full upside participation in a Silver rise, and is a cheaper way to accumulate Silver than the Eagles.

Just think what would happen if the Jappanese liquidate their treasury paper. This comes bact to the US and is distributed to the american banks to keep the wheels of prosperity rolling. And people DONT borrow? IMHO AG and RR are fighting the last war. Infaltion is not the problem. People are not buying today because if they wait, the price will be lower. The "Stuff" that is being shipped to the United States will be hitting the shelves in time for the After Christmas and February White sales. Retailers are going to make money by the freight train load. I dont think the reality and consequences of the deflation occuring in Asia will hit US until spring. That is when our product hit the Asian markets on the return boats. And no one on that side of the pond will have money to purchase the "Stuff" we are exporting.

Bart: Thank you, I knew you weren't antipodeanist



The discussions of late have been very serious, perhaps I can interject a note of levity and suggest a visit to the Surrealistic Compliment Generator where this little gem appeared:




Its a far far better thing I do than to require that you find me a hammer and pummel me with all due diligence, but yet remember that it is I, your solicitor, who keeps you from aligning too much with the listerine salesman.

And

You have not yet reached the height of your depravity

http://pharmdec.wustl.edu/cgi-bin/jardin_scripts/SCG


away to check the gravity of my depravity

Nick love your links. It is going to take some time to get through them, but so far they are interesting. I just wish I read the language, my wife is Japanese, but third generation ( no a word ) .

Is it just me, or did we move over the midnight line without a hitch? Definitely a good sign for gold.

If prices go down, then holding money as well as gold would be good, right? The only bad thing to be holding would be debt. What is the problem with that?
Steve

D.A. OK. I'll take your word for it. You win that point. And yes, I doubt very much if the "conspirators" can move as a coordinated group. But, given their resources, and the size of the moves they must make, I doubt that there are any real secrets among them. And no one wants to be left without a seat at the table, for the coming feast.

John Disney - OK, you crusty old reprobate. Keep your secrets to yourself. :- )

Mo in To - Anyone can play. You have to get into the spirit, and contribute a piece of "evidence".

Humor aside, for the moment, the whole purpose of this is to better understand the forces, both economic and otherwise, that are driving the market. This is the only way to ensure that we end up on the right side of the trades, at the right time.

Japan set to ease Yamaichi-related 'dollar crunch'
http://www.infoseek.com/Content?arn=a0456LBY250reulb-19971124&qt=japan&col=NX&kt=A&ak=news1486

Japan Market Tumbles on Yamaichi Collapse News
http://www.infoseek.com/Content?col=NX&arn=a2586rontu-19971124&dbid=4&CAT=NEWS&ak=news_head&kt=A
The biggest worry is that the Yamaichi closure could trigger a wider financial collapse in Japan, prompting banks there to sell their huge holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to meet debts.
``The fear is that the Japanese may be forced to repatriate capital and sell holdings of U.S. Treasuries, which could cap the rally in bonds which have been supporting equities."
``Coming in the wake of the turbulence in Southeast Asian markets and the South Korean financial crisis, the debacle at Yamaichi has suggested to some observers, particularly overseas that the sky is falling on the Asian miracle,''

APEC Leaders to Back Bailout Plan
http://www.infoseek.com/Content?col=NX&arn=a2715reuff-19971124&dbid=4&CAT=NEWS&ak=news_head&kt=A

Prognosis Isn't Cheery For the Asian Malaise
http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-11/16/072l-111697-idx.html
So perhaps now is a good time to take a quick look at the unfolding Asian crisis and the "contagion effects" that may continue to affect Wall Street and other financial markets.

TheMissingLink

G'day, I'm no economist, but I'm awake, ( deeply metaphorically significant that ) so here goes

In deflation all assets suffer price value decline.
Many goods we expect to decline in value, the longer we hold them, our cars, our washing machines, but in a deflation all assets decline, These include assets we don't usually think of as declining in value e.g. real estate ( that precipitates mortgagee sales ) fine art, postage stamps.

However the most severe effect for an industrial economy is a general price decline in the cost of all raw materials. This price decline means that I will be able to manufacure "x" tomorrow, cheaper than I can manufacture "x" today. I can therefore sell it cheaper. Problem is, the purchaser/consumer soon is either out of a job or is canny with diminishing savings so that purchase decisions are deferred, cos it'll be cheaper tomorrow, to but any goods at all.. This is the reason I asked *@sas* the other day when he expects American manufacturing Overproduction to kick into the equation...

Typically in deflation the "rich" lose their money ( cash ) later than the rest by trying to pick the bottom and missing. So purchasing "cheap" assets in a deflation ( especially if it lasts 5+ years ) is the quickest way to go broke.

That is, except for gold, now, ain't that one of the great mysteries of this sweet old world? This sweet Gold world?


auratr ol

I read with interest your comment on silver and also Platinum...I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that someone bought about 1,100 call options on Stillwater Mining for next April...that figures to be about 2 months before they start to unwind there hedges....It must have been a fund or a big time investor...although the out of money calls were only about $2 apiece at the time... I think having Plat/Paladium here in the US makes alot of sense. SA and Russia are along ways off in times of crisis.Near term fundamentals look better than the yellow...I still wonder about silver...if not in Comex, then where???

Tuesday November 25 1997
http://www.scmp.com/news/markets/topmark.idc
-----------------------------------------------------------
Drop in interbank rates stirs buyers
Hong Kong stocks inched higher yesterday as a slight easing of interbank rates more than offset the initial impact of the collapse of Japan's Yamaichi Securities, brokers said. Full Story

Strategy puts rivals behind New World
New World Development outperformed the stock market yesterday on continued signs investors were reappraising the company's potential despite a scorching correction in the property sector, analysts said.

Shanghai B shares slump to year lows
Shanghai B shares fell 7.22 per cent yesterday, a closing low for this year, as foreign institutions left the market on concern tumbling Asian currencies would stall the mainland's economic growth next year.

Rupee dives as political crisis spurs election fear
Indian share prices tumbled to their lowest levels in eight months and the rupee sank to a record low against the US dollar yesterday as a political impasse threatened to plunge the country into early elections.

Asian currencies weaken
Asian currencies slipped yesterday on concerns about South Korea's bailout by the International Monetary Fund and the impact of the failure of Japan's Yamaichi Securities, dealers said.

New York
Weak Japan hurts hi-techs
US stocks fell in early trading yesterday, following the lead of overseas markets and US Treasury bonds, on concern that the weakness in Japan's financial system could translate into lower profits for US companies.

London
Banks lead FTSE decline
British stocks slumped yesterday, led by banks, after the closure of Japan's oldest brokerage renewed concern that companies that do business in Asia could see their profits crimped.

China
Foreigners flee on Yamaichi news
The planned shutdown of Japan's Yamaichi Securities yesterday sent B shares to new closing lows for the year amid talk the firm was liquidating its B-share holdings, brokers said.

Tokyo
Bad debt problems dominate market attention
Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday yesterday.

Taipei
Shares drop as Yamaichi's collapse rattles sentiment
Taiwan's benchmark index took its biggest dive in two weeks as the closure of Yamaichi Securities - Japan's fourth-largest brokerage - rattled investors in Asian's third-biggest stock market.

Bombay
Political crisis batters stocks
Indian stocks fell sharply yesterday, led by State Bank of India, amid concern that the government could fall, delaying economic reform and dimming prospects for growth.

Seoul
IMF bailout concerns drive index towards 10-year low
South Korean stocks dropped for a second day, driving the benchmark index to its lowest in almost 10 years, on concern the conditions of an International Monetary Fund bailout will slow the economy.

Kuala Lumpur
Investors snap up issues at near book values
Malaysian stocks surged for a second session yesterday, as the decline of the past two weeks made some stocks cheap relative to expected earnings.

Singapore
Buyers go for counters with sound outlooks
Singapore stocks rose yesterday, led by Singapore Telecom and City Developments, as investors picked companies with sound earnings outlooks.

Jakarta
Suharto plea to companies triggers rally
Indonesian stocks surged yesterday after newspaper reports said President Suharto was urging state-owned companies to invest 1 per cent of profits in the stock market.

Bangkok
Financials' capital fears hurt market
Thai share prices closed sharply lower yesterday, with selling centred in the finance sector over ongoing concerns about its stability and concerns about capital raising, dealers said.

Manila
Weak profit results fuel more losses
Philippine stocks fell for a second day amid disappointing third-quarter earnings and expectations of worse to come because of a slowing economy.

Australia
Financial turmoil fuels fears of slowdown
Australian stocks were mixed yesterday amid signs that the financial turmoil in Asia is far from over.

Wellington
Asian jitters weaken stocks
New Zealand share prices closed lower as nervousness about Asian markets and Japan in particular turned sentiment negative, dealers said.

Precious Metals
Silver forges higher as gold firms
Silver prices forged higher in London yesterday morning, breaking their traditional ties with gold and looking to firm further, dealers said.

Platinum
Nymex January platinum was US$389 an ounce on Friday, down $3.20 from Thursday, mostly on local and small speculative trading.

Silver
Tokyo yen-based silver trading was closed yesterday due to a national holiday.

Other Commodities
Oil goes back to basics as Iraq crisis fades
Baghdad's decision on Thursday to unconditionally allow all UN weapons inspectors charged with disarming the country to return to Iraq brought calm back to the oil market.

Asian prices
Chinese demand for western grades dominated the Asian crude market yesterday, while the lack of December barrels of heavy Indonesian grades limited trading on regional crudes, traders said.

Leading Currencies
Dollar seen reaching 5-year high in wake of Yamaichi collapse
The US dollar rose against the yen in early London trade yesterday, after Yamaichi Securities became the latest Japanese financial institution to collapse, fuelling concern about a meltdown in the nation's markets.

Regional Currencies
Aussie slips on drop in Seoul shares
The Australian dollar fell yesterday as South Korean stocks slid again, amid concern the International Monetary Fund will prescribe some harsh medicine as part of its bailout of the Korean economy, slowing growth in Australia's second-biggest export market.

Lai See
Rerun of great 1984 panic takes the cake
The unthinkable has happened. Just when you thought it was safe to have a good chuckle about the Great Cake Run of 1984, along comes another cake run to confound the pundits.

Monitor
Reaction to crisis key to Apec's future role
Colourful Australian Trade Minister Tim Fischer described the economic upheavals that have rocked Asia as a "financial fire-storm".
sell holdings of U.S. Treasuries, which could cap the rally in bonds which have been supporting equities."
``Coming in the wake of the turbulence in Southeast Asian markets and the South Korean financial crisis, the debacle at Yamaichi has suggested to some observers, particularly overseas that the sky is falling on the Asian miracle,''

APEC Leaders to Back Bailout Plan
http://www.infoseek.com/Content?col=NX&arn=a2715reuff-19971124&dbid=4&CAT=NEWS&ak=news_head&kt=A

Prognosis Isn't Cheery For the Asian Malaise
http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-11/16/072l-111697-idx.html
So perhaps now is a good time to take a quick look at the unfolding Asian crisis and the "contagion effects" that may continue to affect Wall Street and other financial markets.

Avid Heads-Up commentary:
http://avidtrader.com/opinion/heads-up.htm

John Crudele: Don't Look Now, But Money Supply Is Up:
http://nypostonline.com/business/1122.htm

BOJ gov says ready to provide market liquidity
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/boj_gov_says_ready_t_1.html

BOJ says special loans to Yamaichi 800 bln yen
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/boj_says_special_loa_1.html

Tokyo stocks tumble in wake of Yamaichi failure
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/japan_stocks_close_2.html

Wider "circuit-breaker" halts proposed for NYSE
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/wider_circuit_breake_3.html

FOCUS-Seoul stocks dive for third day on IMF woes
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/korea_markets_2.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/korea_markets_3.html

IMF probe into S.Korea finance picks up steam
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/imf_probe_into_s_kor_1.html

RJ if we assume that there is a stash of silver around someplace, how does this change the basic drawdown and demand outstripping supply for several years running fundamentals? Do we not have a situation where no matter what little hoards might be found, we're still going to run out of the stuff soon? ( Assuming no huge breakout move first that would trigger the fires under the melting pots a la 1980..? )

Unless there's a HUGE stash somewhere, isn't it a foregone conclusion that present rates of consumption will eat up the reserves in the next year or two at most? Seems like that would be long and intermediate term bullish no matter what shenanigans the "players" had in mind.

More scandal in the Executive Branch... http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a36138.htm

BOJ says Hokutaku special loans may be recovered
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/boj_says_hokutaku_sp_1.html

POLL-IMF aid to limit S.Korea won depreciation
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/poll_imf_aid_to_limi_1.html
``Aided by the IMF loans, the won will strengthen and then it will be stabilised,'' Lee said. ``And domestic companies will liquidate their dollar holdings.''
Speaking overnight from the United States, South Korea's central bank governor, Lee Kyung-shick said $20 billion from the IMF might not be enough to resolve Seoul's financial crisis.
``I think $20 billion is too low, but I don't think it will be as much as $60 billion,''

------------------------------------------------------------
Tokyo-Mitsubishi -97/98 group forecast
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/tokyo_mitsubishi_831_3.html
LATEST ACTUAL
( Group ) FORECAST YEAR-AGO
Current loss 750.00 prft 181.95

When in history has Wall Street seen
a ) a record 1-day point loss in the dow
b ) a sharp next-day reversal ( with dow closing nearer the daily high than low )
c ) record daily volume on reversal

It came shortly BEFORE the crash of 1929. Ironically, both reversal days
( on Oct 24/29 and Oct 28.97 ) not only came on record volume, but volume that
was 50% higher than any previous record. Then, as now, such action was
proclaimed as technical proof that the correction was over.

We emphasize that this does not guarantee that we are heading into a 1929
crash. But we also don't think that historical parallel is just a
coincidence. Today, the same disinflationary ( or Deflationary ) pressures
that have created the "New Era" hype in the U.S. ... are creating havoc and
horror in global economies. Only under these pressures could investore be
whipsawed in contrasting selling and buying panics.

The "shocker" part is looking at today's market and the potential impact
which a bear could have on the economy. Only a minor-20% decline would wipe
out almost $2 trillion in paper assets. In essence, a minimal -20% drop in
stock prices could have more economic impact than any bear market of the
past 60 yrs. A -33.5% decline as in 1987 would wipe out over $3.3 trillion
in stock valuation. That's roughly the size of the entire stock market in
1987... and equivalent to the past decades worth of annual GDP increases.
And as for a 1973-74 bear loss of -48.2%?
Well you can draw your own conclusions.

You can understand why one astute analyst saring the podium at a recent
conference compared today's stock market to a jumbo jet flying around
without any landing gear. As long as the gov't, federal reserve and consumer
spending can keep it flying- we're fine. But when the fuel runs low and we
have to land- WATCH OUT!!

All past bear markets of past 20-30 yrs have been Inflationary bear markets.
The near meltdown on Oct 27, the prospects of a deflationary bear have risen
sharply.

In a DEFLATIONARY BEAR
a ) there is no slow, rounding top
b ) the bigger drops come at the START rather than near the end
c ) The Dow would likely be under 5000 giving back most of the gains from
recent years, before investors had any time to react.
d ) Declines are steeper and faster, interspersed with very tempting rallies.

Mutual Fund Redempiton Reality

"When the Wave comes, it's not going to look anything like last week"

That's what chairman of NYSE said in the week following the near meltdown
and recovery last month. Pundits believe that mutual funds inflows are
fueling this bull market- and that stock prices must continue rising until
those inflow reverse. This view held by advisors and money managers. What
does the chairman of NYSE know that these pundits don't. In a word "HISTORY"
Today's mutual fund inflows won't reverse until the next bear market has
inflicted most or all of its damage.

Problem with a Deflationary bear mkt , especially if it strikes a bubble in
financial assets, is it's unpredictablilty. Inflationary bears can be
tracked, monitored, and even predicted by rising inflation, forcasting
models and commodity prices. Yet deflationary bears seem to unfold as an
accident.

Experts - Forcast 1997 issue Money Magazine last January.

"Asia- Undervalued stocks combined with exceptional economic growth make
Hong Kong, India and South Korea compelling buys."

Leaders Discuss Bailout Plan
The Plan Would Mean $68 Billion for Troubled Asian Economies
http://www.abcnews.com/sections/world/apec1121/index.html
"We need to take this very seriously, and we have to work very hard," said Clinton.
He said Asia's troubles could affect U.S. interests and the American stock market.
Three APEC nations-Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia - already have obtained IMF emergency rescue funds totaling $48 billion. On Friday, South Korea requested a $20 billion-plus package.

OPEC Expects Higher Demand
http://www.abcnews.com/sections/business/opec1122/index.html
As OPEC's oil ministers prepare to meet in Indonesia this week, the organization's secretary general says an expected increase in worldwide oil demand could lead the group to grab a bigger share of the market.

Yamaichi Heralds New Day in Japan
http://www.abcnews.com/sections/business/japaneconomy1124/index.html
By letting one of the country's most prestigious financial institutions sink under the weight of scandal and bad debt, Japan's government sends a signal that it finally intends let market forces rule.

Evening Sharefin - Gold looks sick today and tonight. What will happen at Comex maana?......did you jump on the elevator?? It looks as thought the US$ is the real-deal right now, eh? Who wudda thunk it? My only regret is my Mark is slipping...but only slightly which is encouraging...uh huh.

Now....will the real 'flight-to-quality' please stand up...um...er...uh...dum, dee, dum...um...er...uh...........that's what I thought. What a dog! You will sink WAY before you swim. From the charts, tomorrow may be the day. But, I could be wrong...no really...ask the Spud ;- ) ....oh my.

away...zzzzzzzzzzzzz

countinggoldbarsforsaleinhissleep

No visible reaction to Asian events in Europe this morning: Eurotop 100 index 2155.86 ( Yesterday close 2156.68 )

Since gold is being such a turkey I post the following recipe for your Thanksgiving delight:

Turkey Dressing


2 cups bread crumbs
1 cup water
1 onion chopped
2 tsp. sage
2 eggs
salt & pepper
1 cup popcorn ( unpopped )
roast turkey at 325 degrees
You will know it's done when the popcorn
blows the rear end off your turkey

Tort, you are a MONSTER ! LOLROTL ! ! {;- ) }

EB
You better put on your footy boots to give it a final kick.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Japan's just too big to go bust - economists
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/japan_yamaichi_asia_1.html
On Monday in Vancouver, President Bill Clinton greeted Hashimoto with the plea: ``We are worried whether the Japanese economy has the strength to make an Asian recovery possible.''

Japan market asks who next to fall after Yamaichi
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/japan_yamaichi_quest_1.html
``Market participants are looking for a clue to the health of financial firms with insufficient disclosure,'' ``Fears remain that once ( investors ) smell something fishy, weak firms will be driven further into a corner.''
``Up to half of these companies are likely to disappear through mergers, acquisitions, affiliations and failures,''

Japan not about to sell off its U.S. T-bonds
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/japan_usa_bonds_1.html
The experts said that troubled banks would likely cash in their Japanese stocks first, then Japanese government bonds ( JGBs ) , and finally T-bonds.
Some traders said Yamaichi Securities may liquidate foreign assets and repatriate funds in order to close its operation here.
Many said, however, that the brokerage only has $80 million worth of U.S. bonds in its own trading account and any impact from the sale of these on the U.S. Treasury market would be minimal.
Some T-bond sales by smaller life insurance firms with financial troubles are also likely, but their outstanding portfolios in U.S. Treasuries were relatively small, insurers said.
On November 21, Moody's Investors Service assigned a financial strength rating of Caa1, or very poor, to Toho Mutual Life Insurance, and B3, or poor, to Kyoei Life, Daihyaku Mutual Life and Chiyoda Mutual Life Insurance Company.
In the short-term money market, fears of a dollar liquidity crunch at Japanese firms pushed up the so-called Japan premium, or the extra fund-raising cost charged to Japanese institutions in euro interbank markets.
On Monday, Japanese monetary authorities said they stand ready to alleviate any fund-raising difficulties at Japanese banks that could ultimately force them to liquidate U.S. Treasuries.
A senior Ministry of Finance official also said on Monday that the Japanese government stands ready to use its foreign currency holdings, the world's largest at more than $220 billion, if needed.
There was also speculation that the Japanese government might sell U.S. bonds held in Japan's official external reserves to generate ample yen funds to clear up the banking system mess, but some traders were sceptical.
The speculation that the Japanese government will sell U.S. Treasuries outright in the market is groundless, said a Japanese brokerage trader.
``Such operations would incur massive foreign exchange losses on Japanese investors' portfolios, making the current bad-loan problem even worse, he said.

FOCUS-Japan finance shake-out hits,not yet crisis
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/japan_yamaichi_shake_1.html

What could rescue gold here? How about some CB's adding liquidity
by buying gold. Seems to me the Japanese civilians need some incentive to spend to get there economy moving. Nothing like watching real
assets go up in value to encourage cashing in of paper. This is what happened in the seventies. Inflation then wasn't nice, but at least it wasn't a depression.

FOCUS-Japan struggles to cope with Yamaichi gloom
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/japan_yamaichi_4thld_1.html
One worry is that Yamaichi's failure -- long-rumoured but in the end triggered by revelations of off-balance-sheet debts including possible illegal deals -- could spark a wider financial collapse in Japan as lenders tighten credit lines.

As Donald is away, I'm not sure if the attached article was posted. It seems to have kept gold down today.

http://www.infoseek.com/Content?arn=a1796LBY639reulb-19971124&qt=%2Bgold&lk=ip-noframes&col=NX&kt=A&ak=allnews

Also, did anyone catch the article on gold in this week's Economist. It was as negative an article on gold as I've seen to date. To quote just a minor part of it -

"The truth is that gold is no longer a monetary asset. It has become just another commodity. Many developed economies, including America, France and Switzerland, still hold more than 40% of their total foreign reserves in gold, and these massive reserves are keeping the price artificially high. In other markets, such huge stocks would eventually cause the price to collapse."

I've always liked and respected the Economist. This is really depressing.

Neophyte: We read so much about how gold has become "just a
commodity". My view on this is that it has always been a commodity.
One that is easily used as a medium of exchange, and not easily subject to inflation. What's changed recently is not gold, but the world's perceptions regarding paper assets. Such perceptions are now at their peak. It's still fiat money however, and at some point it will be subject to the same disillusionments to which fiat money will forever be susceptible. Will this happen today? Don't know, but it will eventually.

Good mornin all.......Weather:35 degrees and sunny with large waves rolling in~~~~~~~~~~~

THERE IS MUCH LEFT TO HAPPEN IN FOREIGN MARKETS YET

With an estimated $200 billion in accumulated nonperforming loans - five times the equity capital of all Chinese banks - China's banking system is essentially insolvent. At least 50% of China's state-owned companies are in the red, constituting a far larger chunk of the economy than failing companies representin any other Asian country.

WILL the smart Chinese again seek sheltert in the currency, which has served them well for over 3,000 years: GOLD?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines112497.html

Early Riser - Re: Your 7:47 - Sounds simple the way you have stated it, makes sense, hope it works!
Ted - Sending you a note in five.

Mr. Vronsky, thank you for posting the article

by Markus.

I, in much the same way must have ANOTHER

post my thoughts as position will not allow open

expression.

Mr. Markus Angelicus,

Checkmate is the end of a game, but in life checkmate

is the beginning of freedom! I submit that all of history is

full of war. From nations to single persons we all do

battle over ownership of things. Some support not war

but would kill to keep what is theirs! It would seem

that from the day of birth our financial chaos begins. The

end of our struggle is reached but for a moment in time

as checkmate becomes stalemate and fortunate and

free are the few who find this time in life!

Am I misleading? I submit to you that all of creation is

misleading. It is only in the pages of history that we find

those who thought the truth! The facts of the present

are but a wonder to all. Only time will prove all things.

Sir, you write,

Your gold coins in your pocket will become the

target of persecution and arrests and you will be forced

to accept the world's standard currency. There will be

no alternative...you will be unable to trade with your gold

because they will have long outlawed both gold and old

paper currency....

In the past many world governments and leaders, far greater

than those today have embraced these thoughts. I and my

fathers have done battle with such evil and won! For we have

6,000 years of history as our armor!

For those who say gold is not an asset and is dead! I offer

you a fact: Today, as you read this more gold is traded and

purchased than at any time in the history of the world. This

ancient, world class money from the distant past is now to

be the most fought over asset of the future. In war and life,

gold will be your CHECKMATE!

For Neophyte

I do not share your liking and your respect for

the Economist. I think they are a bunch of bums, and

one of the world's greatest counter indicators.

The 1993 gold bull run started within a week of an

Economist article urging all gold holders to sell.

If the Economist doesnt like it, then it CANT be

all bad. I take your bad news as good news.

By the way, big announcement here. Seems like

Anglos just bought everybody they could find.

- Waiting for smoke to clear.Will advise when I have

THE FACTS.

I saw the Economist article on gold as well. It was very compelling in its argument of gold as just another commodity. Monetary and banking systems are now based on information. They simply do not need gold to bolster confidence.

As the developed countries slowly unload their gold, the price of gold has only one way to go and thats DOWN.

If Gold is not money, WHAT IS??

TUESDAY IN TOKYO: NIKKEI suffers SECOND worst fall in 1997 - DOWN 854 points, equivalent to a drop of 5.3% to 15842. This VIRTUALLY OBLITERATES ALL of the BOJ-RALLY in recent days. It bears repeating that ONLY the BOJ has the motive and financial clout to so dramatically reverse the Nikkeis KAMIKAZE dive!

Another startling announcement make in TOKYO recently, which may have important ramifications for the US Dollar, T-bonds, and Wall Street:

Yen demand to grow in Asia as dollar link ends - BOJ

TOKYO ( Reuters ) - Demand for the yen in the Asian region will naturally increase now that many Asian countries have stopped linking the value of their currencies to the U.S. dollar, Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) executive director Takashi Anzai said on Monday

It would be only natural for currency transactions of the yen against local Asian currencies to increase after their departure from the dollar peg system, Anzai told an international symposium on European economic and monetary union and the yen.

He added: This applies to both the private and the public sector.

Germany, Nov 19 - The Bundesbank announces it will start using the Yen as part of its reserves to reduce its US Dollar risk.

QUESTION ON Behalf of Far-East Public & Private Sectors: So why do we need to continue to hold US Treasuries - DENOMINATED IN US DOLLARS?!

Whereas the BOJ can ONLY momentarily deter the slide in Nikkei - as we have just seen, it will not resolve the underlying problems plaguing Japan and the rest of Asia. It is a ruse to confuse.

To appreciate the grim financial and economic conditions - becoming worse daily - one must examine the problems. This weekend an outstanding article was posted at GOLD-EAGLE, which describes in minute detail what is happening in Asia.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html

Some 3 billion people around the globe consider gold a store of value. In a world where these people are becoming the markets of the future in rapid fashion, gold demand will outstrip supply. These cultures are old and have suffered through the destruction of many a figment standard paper money supply.

Those constant discussions of everything as a commodity are repulsive to me. What then of honor and integrity. I usually find that the people that espouse these arguments would sell their mother's organs to the highest bidder to make a financial gain.

I say buy the metals and fear not the boy and girl wonders of the day. Trust in the age-old fear, the horror of a paper money lie that is as fleeting as is the word of the politician. Trust not those who burden you with miles and miles of files, which prove nothing, save their fleeting economic points of view.

Trust the metals because they do not talk, they spend as they have throughout history.

And nothing more. Where in the world is gold used as a medium of exchange in everyday transactions. NOWHERE. Gold may be a store of value but then so is oil or wheat or pork bellies for that matter but no one uses these commodities for everyday transactions.

Unless gold is used as a medium of exchange in everyday transactions then it can not be called money. The masses have voted with their pocket books. Gold is a commodity.

Only time will tell if you can trade them to eat.

Tuesday November 25, 7:58 am Eastern Time

U.S. Treasuries open lower as Japan worries weigh

*U.S. Treasuries opened lower as Japan worries persisted. *Nikkei drops 5.1 pct in expected overnight trading losses. *Dollar hits 5-yr high versus yen overnight, adds to tension. *Traders await BTM, consumer confidence, home sales data. *Talk--BTM index unch latest week, due 0900 EST/1400 GMT.

Anglo American: Biggest gold producer may
unite operations
MONDAY NOVEMBER 24 1997
By Gary Mead in London

Anglo American Corporation, South Africa's and the world's biggest gold
producer, may announce tomorrow a restructuring to unite all its gold mining operations and assets into a single company, with shares traded in London, Johannesburg and elsewhere.

Senior officials of Anglo yesterday declined to comment on a spate of recent market rumours concerning the move, which could result in the emergence of a single group valued at about 2.5bn ( $4.2bn ) .

However, Anglo is due to announce tomorrow its interim results, and some
analysts expect it to use the opportunity to air the results of a recently undertaken large-scale internal review.

If Anglo did end separate share quotations and administration for its individual mining operations, the move would mark a radical departure from a century-old tradition in which the group maintained a clear distinction between its role as a mining finance house and that of a mine operator.

Anglo's main gold mine holdings include direct ownership of 22.5 per cent of Vaal Reefs, 36.9 per cent of Western Deep levels, 45 per cent of Eastvaal,52.2 per cent of Elandsrand, and 20 per cent of Southvaal.

There has been a precedent for such a restructuring within the Anglo
American group. Amplats, the platinum subsidiary of Anglo, recently
underwent an internal reform which merged the group's four listed platinum mines into a single investment vehicle.

A further impetus to the possible reshaping of Anglo's gold mining operations might be this year's slump in the price of bullion, down by more than 17 per cent, to $303.9 an ounce by last Friday afternoon's London "fix".

The collapsed price of gold - and some analysts' forecasts that it will trade at an average $300 an ounce in 1998 - means that some 50 per cent of the world's gold mines are currently unprofitable, concentrating the minds of everyone in the business on finding economies wherever possible.

John Disney's Comment For Neophyte:

My many, many years of experience in the international financial world have taught me that BOTH the Economist and the Wall Street Journal are plainly and simply marketing arms of the 'paper' markets. Just thumb through their pages... choke full of their benefactors... i.e. those who pay their bills and salaries. BOTH the Economist and the Wall Street Journal are necessarily BIASED AGAINST GOLD IN FAVOR OF STOCKS & BONDS. It's just good ol' common-sense in knowing who is buttering your bread! And as John Disney so correctly indicates, the Economist has been 180 degrees out of phase at GOLD's important reversal points.

I would go so far as to state that IN MY CONSIDERED OPINION any journalist puts his livelihood in serious jeapardy, IF he would be so foolhardy to voice in favor of GOLD at the expense of 'PAPER' Stocks & Bonds.

vronsky - not so Neophyte

Looking through Barron's, as suggested somewhere down below, I notice that the US has about $650 billion in foreign owned debt paper. Went down $2.5 billion last week, and has been going down at that rate for about a month. The BOJ appears not to be selling, so who is?

Is this something like what may happen???

Gold Mining Outlook

by Steven Jon Kaplan

Updated @ 5:45 p.m. EDT, Monday, November 24, 1997.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities, including precious metals, were moderately lower on Monday. Gold dropped $2.00, silver was down 4.2 cents, platinum lost $2.50, and palladium slumped $4.15.

Bank of England Governor Eddie George spoke about the quantity of gold reserves to be held by the future European Central Bank on Monday in a speech to the European Parliament's Monetary Affairs Subcommittee in Brussels: "I would be surprised if that decision involved holding large quantities of gold because whereas gold used to be seen as a good asset, it's now seen as the bottom of the pile."

While the Swiss government--whose employees are compensated regardless of the intelligence of their fiscal plans--have proposed delinking Switzerland from the gold standard and/or selling some of their long-held reserves, private Swiss money managers whose reputation and remuneration depend upon sound financial decisions are selling stocks and using the money to raise cash and purchase precious metals and their shares. Alain Etienne, senior partner at Geneva asset management firm Etienne, Odier, Pythoud and Cie, sold more than eighty percent of his equity portfolio, and now has ten percent in gold and "at least fifteen percent" ( he declined to release the exact figure ) in gold mining shares.

"The best cure for low prices . . . is low prices!"
--- Wesley J. Savage, infamous commodity journalist.

Testament to the fact that GOLD IS MONEY is the daily trading of 40,000,000 ounces on the London Bullion Marketing Association ( LBMA ) . This is up 25% in only the last six months. Only currencies have this humongous DAILY trading volume.

Gold opened down ~$3; silver down ~8cents. Just heard on the radio Dec gold only down 60cents, silver ~unchanged. Anybody else smell "reversal day"? This would be quite bullish.

Just for fun ( because they're all fiat paper of course ) look at the Currencies below ( from FT's money converter ) and select the one with
the best chance of being revalued...
GBP USD DEM YEN
Currency ( SDR ) 1.23 0.72 0.42 0.00

As for information being the coinage of the future: it doesn't
age well does it? Keeping it 'safe' ( given human nature ) is
a great difficulty, and establishing an accord as to its value, oh my!
( and then of course, there are things like Y2K... )

G'Day to all from Kalgoorlie, Western Australia.

Keys words.... Rothchilds, daily gold price, Barclays Bank, Midland Bank, Standard Charter Bank, Bank of England and its Governor, RTZ, Anglo American Corporation, physical vacuum of two - three years gold production, Nikkei on the drop, US and other markets still high, low gold price, market crash, GOLD ?!........

The Economist is basically the voice of a GOLD CARTEL.

Things are getting a little tough in the WA gold mining scene, but a general feeling of "gold will go".... the question is when.

It should get very interesting if and when the Nikkei drops towards and possibly below 15000 points.

GOLD has been used as money for over 5000 years, and the foolish and deceptive actions by the world powers ( CB's IMF BIS freemasons Trilateral Commision etc. ) in the last 25 years will do nothing to change this, Period.

In SDR

GBP, 1.23
USD, 0.72
DEM, 0.42
YEN, 0.00

Karlito
Give your girl a nice heavy gold chain or set of earrings.
Watch her reaction and gauge her response.

Money is no fair exchange for emotions.

Every shopping centre, has a jewelry store.
With an endless procession, of young,
Starry eyed lovers, passing through the doors.
Seeking for the right jewel, to delight, appease, their partner.

Every wealthy man, in the world, uses gold,
To atone for the guilt in his life.
When he bestows these jewels.
Upon his wife.

There will always, be an unstoppable,
Demand, for my precious, gold.
For it has an emotional value.
Unreplaceable, by plastic or paper.

I offer you a parable, courtesy of Coin Demon's Newsletter's "Tales from the Wasteland" http://www.malakoff.com/coindemon/tftw.htm :
"Guy calls and wants 10 maple leafs. Coin shop curator gives caller the
cash price. Caller says, "OK," but first he wants to take them somewhere
and have them tested. "If they test out," he says, "Ill come back and
give you the cash." Coin dealer responds, "No, you bring the cash and
Ill sent it out to the treasury department. If it checks out then you
can come in and pick up your gold." The caller presumably never arrived."

Gold has worked down from Alexanders time... When something holds good for two thousand years, I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory.

- Bernard Baruch, a 1929 and aftermath winner - and financial advisor to three US Presidents

Apologies if this was posted before, from NYPost:

http://nypostonline.com/business/1153.htm

http://nypostonline.com/business/1153.htm

Comex gold stocks rose yesterday by 78,806 oz to 574,209 oz. BUT if you look inside the numbers eligible gold stocks FELL 18,226 oz to 213,972 oz. Only ONE ounce available against each outstanding contract!

I have noticed over the past year that we have had similar rises in the total gold stocks on comex before first notice day. I am not sure what to make of it, but it could be an effort to 'paint the tape'. To show that there is plenty of gold available ( but not eligible ) . You know, like having a brand new shiney car in your garage that you can look at and touch but not drive because it belongs to someone else and they still have the keys!

Steves specially edited: UPDATED NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

Slick admits this is a Global Problem
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971126/world/world1.html

David Hale asks whether IMF has the funds to bail out Korea
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971126/world/world5.html

Aussie Slack Lending to cause Bankruptcy & Y2K problems ahead
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971126/news/news3.html

More Japanese Banks will fall, says ex MOF head
Investors will only sell US Treasuries is really "squeezed"
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971126/world/world2.html

Sth Koreans turn protectionist
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971126/world/world3.html

Aussie Goldminers ripe for buy-out
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971126/business/business8.html

Rothschild Gold Fund says Resource shares to go sideways or down for 6 months
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971126/business/business1.html

Yamaichi losses hidden in Cayman Islands
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971125/world/world1.html

Yamaichi was rescued before in 1965
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971125/world/world2.html

Japan rouses from do nothing spell
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971125/feature/feature1.html

Mahathir lashes excess as crisis reaches Japan
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971125/pageone/pageone9.html

Mahathir widens his guilty list
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971125/world/world4.html

Chinese Sinkhole?
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971125/world/world5.html

Normandy Boss says Asian Crisis presents GOLDEN opportunity
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971125/invest/invest6.html

Aussie Resource Stocks - the lowest of the low
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971125/market/markets3.html

Aussie Airlines in $150m attack on Y2K Bug
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971125/news/news7.html

A quick history lesson shows that booms do bust - The Maverick
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/market/markets2.html

Beijing calls for urgent overhaul
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world4.html

Recovery in Korea or Japan Not Close, Says Westpac Inv. Manager
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business1.html

Korea & Japan going under may spell Global Deflation
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/perspective/perspective4.html

Asia Doomsayers emerge in the US ( Ed Yardini/Henry Kaufman )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world2.html

Yamaichi Turmoil ahead this week
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971124/business/business1.html
CS First Boston's US-based economist, Dr Albert Wojnilower, told Business Sunday that a meltdown in the Japanese financial system would cause a depression there.

"It's the world's chief threat because there is, I'm afraid, a possibility of the Japanese financial system melting down in the way that would prompt a depression of the 1930s' US-character in Japan."

Son

Thanks for the great news buffet you post. I think Mr. Clinton has helped to seal his own fate through both actions and words. His complete reversal on events in Asia will not go unnoticed.

Tinker Belle Economy--it will Fly as long as everybody 'Believes'

At this point in time belief is not an important ingredient in the game
It is the GAME...
IMHO

a reply,

Date: Mon Nov 24 1997 21:08

Allen ( USA ) ( @Another ( Thoughts! ) and all RE: Mercantilism ) ID#255190:

Allen,

The US$ is today, backed by oil. As all other currencies are but digital units

tied directly to the dollar, they are indirectly on the oil standard also. This world

currency position is supported thru the BIS. In CB circles, it is well known

that the world debt markets as we know them, can only be maintained with

cheap and cheaper oil! Without cheap oil the entire system fails and reverts back

to pay as you go economies. This is the central reason for two price gold.

With gold discounted to its production cost and below, those that have it can

trade it for its monetary value. Make no mistake, the BIS knows gold in the

many thousands. The future reset value of gold is the key.

support the dollar with oil and the currency system works

fail the currencies and the dollar will come off the oil standard and the BIS will

reset gold to $10,000+ with many conditions

That is why they continue to accept the dollar as a reserve. If Japan or any other

COUNTRY sells US treasury debt its all over!

Xau poised to breakdown to 65. The hourly chart indicates failure
for the price to hold up.

True to form the oft CNBC financial celebrity, Gene Inger, makes for interesting reading of what happened last week in all the markets... and what we might expect in the coming round -

Yamaichi's cessation of operations is the biggest failure in Japan since World War II. Japan's market is closed Monday, so we'll watch others for hints of any Tuesday impact. No doubt, based on the Nikkei futures Friday afternoon, Asian markets will again be turned into sushi, while those buying US stocks into strength might have to eat Crow instead of Turkey:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger112297.html

There has to be some reason that Gold has been driven down into the dirt in the fact of so many obvious fundamentals that call for a dramatic rise in its price!! We all have wondered out loud as to why gold keeps dropping in the face of international financial disasters .... maybe, just maybe ... Another has put his finger on it ... I want toknow WHEN the general market for PM's is going UP!!

Consensus on Canadian TV last night was that the Asian meltdown will reduce growth from expected 4% to 3.5-3.8% in 1998. 40 billion of Canadian debt held in the Asian area which will become a problem when it is rolled over and interest rates may rise. No additional problems anticipated as Canada isn't going to be issuing anymore debt.

Tuesday November 25, 10:02 am Eastern Time

U.S. consumer confidence 128.3 Nov - Conference Bd

NEW YORK, Nov 25 ( Reuters ) - The Conference Board on Tuesday said its index of U.S. consumer confidence rose to 128.3 from a revised 123.4 in October.

The present situation index rose to 158.9 in November, from a revised 147.5 in October.

The expectations component of the index rose to 107.9 in November, from 107.3 registered the prior month.

``Recent turmoil on Wall Street and in worldwide financial markets, along with continuing layoff announcements, have not dampened consumer confidence,'' said Lynn Franco, associate director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.

``Consumers continue to express confidence about the health of the U.S. economy and expect these favorable conditions to continue well into 1998,'' Franco said.

Does anyone know a good website for finding the price of gold calls?
Does anyone know of a good website for finding the price of gold calls?

I didn't say that gold didnt have some value.... certainly it has great sentimental value as an expression of love and affection. BUT ITS NOT MONEY. The most important characteristic is that it operates as a medium of exchange, you can go to the local store and buy something with it.

Yes gold trades on a number of exchanges but at a fraction of the volume of currencies which trade in terms of trillions of dollars a day.

Mr. V is right when he says that any journalist would risk his career by speaking favorably about gold as an investment because over the last 15 years anyone who bought and held gold for any period of time lost money. Yes there have been brief market rallies in gold, but the long term direction of gold has been down and IMHO remains down.

Whose oil?

Your comment; "Yes gold trades on a number of exchanges but at a fraction of the volume of currencies which trade in terms of trillions of dollars a day."

The reason is that governments and bankers can not just print or keystroke gold out of thin air.

Karlito: Wheat and pork bellies are NOT store's-of-value. They easily rot. To be a store-of-value, a commodity must be able to be held for long periods of time -- i.e., decades and centuries.

Try This; http://quotewatch.com/

Type in: gold

Click on : "find it now"

November 25, 1997
Canadian T-bill yields open higher after rate rise

TORONTO, Nov 25 ( Reuters ) - Canadian T-bills opened higher after the Bank of Canada raised its Bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.00 percent.
The Bank of Canada raised rates by setting reverses in the money market at 3.50 percent.

The central bank said it raised rates in Canada in response to persistent weakness in the Canadian dollar and the easing effects the weaker currency had on monetary policy.

Canada's call loan rate rose to 3.75 percent and the three-month yield rose to 3.50 percent from Monday's close of 3.45 percent.

Thank you. I will try to absorb this. It is a mind blower!

November 25, 1997
TD Bank raises prime rate to 5.5 percent

TORONTO, Nov 25 ( Reuters ) - Toronto-Dominion Bank said on Tuesday it raised its prime lending rate to 5.50 percent from 5.25 percent, effective Wednesday.

The move followed a 25 basis point rise in the floor of the Bank of Canada's rate for overnight financing to 4.00 percent. It matched identical moves by Royal Bank of Canada , Bank of Montreal , Bank of Nova Scotia and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce .

Canada's major banks last changed their prime lending rates on October 2, when they raised rates to 5.25 percent from 4.75 percent. The prime rate is the rate charged by banks on loans to their best customers.

Anything, that is, that you and I can agree to use as our medium of exchange...

But ANYTHING gets so 'messy'; barrels of oil at the supermarket check-out ( and is it sweet, Brent, or what... )

whereas an ounce of gold is Aristotle's "A" is "A", it tis what it tis,
and neither of us can make it more, or less...

which is why we think of it as honest money for honest people...

Goose it up to make the man look good. But there is no conviction. Selling into the stupid goose-up at open. Down market day again. Our fearless leaders have less and less impact on the psychie of the sellers. Even if its just wishful thinking on the part of prem buyers and not the Fed or Treasure. Less and less people in the market are believing this lie.

Ted incoming petrel

All

History never repeats?

Exerpt from book review on-line "Gold, France and the Great Depression"

http://www.yale.edu/yup/F97/johnsonF97.html


H. Clark Johnson develops a convincing and original narrative of the events that led to the major economic catastrophe of the twentieth century. He identifies the undervaluation and consequent shortage of world gold reserves after World War I as the underlying cause of a sustained international price deflation that brought the Great Depression. And, he argues, the reserve-hoarding policies of central banks--particularly the Bank of France--were its proximate cause.

Now, what were the Bank of France's policies anyone?

This is perhaps the most comprehensive and accurate overview of the HOUSE OF ROTHSCHILDs financial activities during the last 200 years. And undoubtedly, NO ONE heretofore has ever come closer - indeed DARED - to estimating the extent of the Rothschild wealth TODAY... and what it might be up to in its traditional business of trading Treasuries and GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus112297.html

November 25, 1997
SEC charges ex-Sakura Global official with fraud

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The Securities and Exchange Commission charged a former Sakura Global Capital, Inc. official with fraud concerning derivatives he provided in connection with two municipal bond transactions in 1992.

In a filing in federal court in Connecticut, which was announced Monday, the SEC said Steven Strauss made "materially misleading statements and/or affirmative misrepresentations" about some undisclosed payments that Sakura made to an Oklahoma securities firm, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

As a result of his actions, Strauss defrauded the state and local governments that issued the two municipal bond offerings and the investors that bought them, the SEC charged in an 11-page complaint.

The offer and sale of municipal securities to the public can involve a series of complicated transactions, including "reinvestment" of the proceeds from the sale of the bonds.

For example, if the proceeds from a municipal bond offering are needed to refund all or part of a city's outstanding debt, then the city must purchase and place in "escrow" enough securities to pay when due, the principal and interest on the refunded debt.

In certain refundings, a derivative called a "forward" may be used to earn the municipality a better return on its escrow. A forward provider can transfer Treasury securities to the trustee overseeing the escrow in exchange for money then on deposit and available in the escrow account.

Sakura provided the forwards to the two issuers, including the Oklahoma Turnpike Authority, the SEC said.

Strauss also defrauded investors who may not have bought the bonds if they knew about the undisclosed payment, the SEC said. They may not have bought them out of fear that such information could have threatened their tax-exempt status, the SEC said.

The SEC also said Strauss defrauded another Missouri bond issuer, the Sisters of St. Mary's Heath Care Obligated Group, which operates health care facilities in a number of states.

The Commission cited failure to disclose a $100,000 fee related to a forward.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/INVESTMENTS-FRAUD.html

Gold becomes money when one is willing to exchange it for somthing else. Sure you can say that at some point windows 98 or 2001 will sell for 1/4 ounce plus one silver dollar and a silver dime. In this case trade would grind to a halt. Sure for 5000 years gold has been money. But most of us now enjoying this prosperity would be dead by now from old age ( 28 ) or disease. When this and other countries were on the gold standard common working people were worked 12 plus hour days and if they compalined they were beaten and some killed. If this economy collapses a lot of us think that because we have been smart and put our assets into PM that somehow we will be on the top of the debris when the dust settles. Well how many people have seen a mass of starving,hungry, mad people comming after them. And where will you run. You will buy you and your familys freedom with gold. The mob will take it away from you and kill you just because you had it. Gold can be money when there is a stable government willing to defend the price of it. Until that point is is a concentrated store of wealth that may be Bartered for essental needs. When the price of groceries is based upon the weight of gold coins and old silver you wont be buying at Safeway and you will be toting either a sidearm or rifle to the farmer and hope your neighbor is not better armed.

But SDR,

I want to do business with people I don't know, and may not trust... I need an universally accepted medium of exchange. Thats why you need those awful politicians, central banks and governments. Thats one of the roles of government, to provide a medium of exchange that everyone is willing to accept and not have to think about it. By having a medium of exchange that I don't have to worry about, I can focus on my business. Paper money is one of the great enhancers of productivity because it is a universally accepted medium of exchange

Just a thought. Could it be possible that gold may
have been over-priced since around 1974?

IV
You will find options and futures links at this site.
http://www.site-by-site.com/usa/optfut.htm#Met

ANOTHER: As I recall, before the US went off the "gold standard" in 1972, the US had a two tier system, where foreign investors and governments could exchange dollars for gold, but American citizens could not. This was a transition phase from the US dollar being on a 100% gold standard to not being on the gold standard after 1972. Also about the time the US dollar was allowed to float relative to other currencies.

My question is this: Can you direct us to some information -- such as a policy at the BIS, IMF, world bank, etc., that we can review so we can understand the two tier system you describe: dollar-gold, or dollar-oil?

Two tier systems are complicated, so rules of trade have to be written down somewhere.

It is apparent from SDRer's work that a two-tier system has at times been set up with the SDR.

I hope you understand my concern -- you are always telling us to buy gold -- but you are not giving us information to understand what is happening. Ignorance breeds fear, but knowledge breeds understanding of what we are up against. Any clues would be appreciated.

Skylark: As long as US Treasury Bonds and Blue Chip stocks are perceived as safe-havens for scared money, gold and silver will not receive the attention they need. Already, silver has gotten some attention. But it is the most under-valued of the precious metals. Once US stocks and bonds both crash, gold and silver will be the only logical choices as safe monetary havens.

Wheat and pork bellies can be a store of value, albeit short live. Not everyone wants to store all their wealth away forever. There is a need for short term stores of value, and wheat, pork bellies among others have those characterisitics.

Before gold became a wildly accepted store of value and medium of exchange, wheat, tobacco, and cattle all functioned as money. ie they were both stores of value and mediums of exchange. Over time they all gave way to more convenient and more widely accepted forms of money, first gold and then later paper. In this historical context, gold is no different from wheat, cattle, pigs, or tobacco.

No Plat?

People are getting their brains put on the pavement everyday being robbed for their paper wealth. Credit card fraud is at levels unprecedented in histroy.

Karlito: YOUR comment: "Yes gold trades on a number of exchanges but at a fraction of the volume of currencies which trade in terms of trillions of dollars a day."

Please let's be a little more precise in our comments, so as NOT to lead the uninformed astray.

ALL WORLD CURRENCIES - i.e. the Whole Enchilada - have a Total DAILY Trading Volume of about $1.2 Trillion. But that represents the total traded of all cureencies. There are upwards of 200 or more countries in the world. But let us assume there are only 120 countries whose currencies are trading. It follows then, that ON THE AVERAGE each currency trades about $10 Billion per day. Now GOLD trades about 40,000,000 ounces per day. And at $300 per ounce, the DAILY GOLD TRADING VALUE IS $12 BILLION... obviously, there is 20% more GOLD CURRENCY trading than the average currency traded.

I repeat, GOLD IS A CURRENCY - GOLD IS MONEY!

Karlito - I like your style ! Your opponents ( too many to list ) assert that gold is the true currency, yet how do they measure the price of gold? In US dollars, of course ! If gold were THE true medium of exchange, all currencies would be reported in terms of ounces of gold.

If Puetz's financial apocalypse truly were to happen ( which, fortunately, is not likely ) , the world would revert to a barter economy, which would set all of us back centuries. It is widely accepted that today's modern economies, with all the tangible benefits they provide to their citizens, could not have developed without the invention of bills of exchange and other negotiable instruments. ( They travel a bit better than large lumps of gold, for instance ) .

The future will not involve a return to a gold-based barter economy, IMVHO. If anything, the information age has already begun removing the need for the bits of paper ( anyone heard of e-cash? ) - a paperless monetary system is on the way.

In addition I add the fact that starving people would not kill the holders of gold. They would in fact kill the holders of the food. Nature has a funny way of setting priorities.

Over and above that your prosperity is based on lies and the printing press. What prosperity is it that is crushed under the weight of the debt used to achieve it.

Karlito: Paper is not universally accepted as a medium-of-exchange, all of the time. Gold and silver, as either a medium-of-exchange or as an item for barter, are universally accepted.

Right now, Japanese banks must pay 1% more than US and European banks to borrow in the Eurodollar market -- i.e., Japanese paper is not viewed as good as other paper. During the 1930s ( when the banks closed ) , money in the bank and other financial paper failed miserably as mediums-of-exchange. The same is true during virtually every other financial panic -- the holders of the bad paper find that their paper fails to function as a medium-of-exchange.

I have just finished reading a treatise by Ed Yourdon, a big iron mainframe programmer with a couple dozen books to his credit. He recently penned and article about large system projects and how late they are. Here's a quick synopsis. In multiple studies of projects over the last 30 years,

( 1 ) Projects of over 10,000 function points, 48% cancelled, the remainder average 13 months late.

( 2 ) Projects of over 100,000 function points, 65% cancelled, the remainder average 25 months late.

Does it bother anyone else that Chase Manhatten Bank's Y2K project is over 2 million function points? CitiCorp is 4 million?

And they started their projects only within the last year or so?

Will anyone trust these institutions to hold their assets after year end 1998?

And should there be bank runs, would it not be more prudent to have your assets in a form that cannot be devalued, debased, or created out of thin air?

Think about it.

Wake up and smell the coffee. e-cash is nothing more than a digital measure of your paper.

e-gold on the other hand is a digital measure of gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

You are correct the information age is upon us and a new system exists. The most sound money system ever devised. e-gold, 100% backed by metal not the lies and promises of politicians and bankers.

November 25, 1997
Former copper king Hamanaka admits to taking gifts

TOKYO, Nov 25 ( Reuters ) - The disgraced former king of the world copper markets, Yasuo Hamanaka, on Tuesday admitted to receiving more than $1.6 million in gifts from his former boss and business partner through Swiss bank accounts.

During an appearance at the Tokyo district court, Hamanaka said his one-time supervisor, Saburo Shimizu, told him the money was a personal gift to thank him for his support and for generating profits for a company Shimizu owned.

"In total, I received 210 million yen ( $1.65 million ) ," Hamanaka told the Tokyo district court.

In June 1996, Sumitomo Corp rocked the world's metal markets by announcing copper trading losses of $2.6 billion, which it blamed on unauthorised deals by Hamanaka, its former chief copper trader.

Tokyo prosecutors have said Shimizu and Hamanaka in the late 1980s began racking up losses through unauthorised trading. Shimizu, Hamanaka's boss at the time, resigned from Sumitomo in 1987.
Tokyo prosecutors said they suspected Hamanaka was paid for compensating losses, at Sumitomo's expense, from copper trades at SCAT Ltd, a firm owned by Shimizu.

Shimizu told the court last month that SCAT made several million dollars in profits from transactions on the London Metal Exchange ( LME ) that were made through Sumitomo in the early 1990s.

Asked how he could make such huge profits for SCAT, while accumulating losses for Sumitomo, Hamanaka said: "I was successful in trades I conducted on behalf of SCAT because I consulted with Mr Shimizu."

Hamanaka said Shimizu transferred the money to his account at the Union Bank of Switzerland ( UBS ) from 1991 to 1994. The transfers were made from Shimizu's account at UBS, he said.

The former star trader, who was fired after his employer discovered the losses last June, has pleaded guilty to charges of fraud and forgery in connection with unauthorised trades.

His next hearing is scheduled for December 10 and his sentencing is expected early next year.

Karlito: What you said about cattle and wheat being money at one time was true. However, they did not last as acceptable money because of their short life as a store-of-value. As civilizations developed, money that had a long life as a store-of-value became more necessary -- gold, silver, and copper became the only truly universally accepted monies.

Now, platinum may also fill that role. But, historically gold and silver have been the only 2 commodities that have consistently filled the role as a global money.

Ah-Ha ! So e-gold is simply a bit of digital code, backed by a promise to pay in gold, is it? I seem to recall that the US dollar and the British Pound for a long time were bits of paper, backed by a promise to pay in gold, too. That is, until the respective reserve banks saw the futility of that approach. My real point is, is you believe in gold as an asset, nothing less than gold itself will suffice. All the rest is just promises. If you are willing to accept a promise, cash, e-cash, e-gold, all will do.

Allen ( USA ) ,sharefin: Looks like what I might described as a "heavily damped" system. The pulse of the money stimulus effect at opening does not have a lasting benefit. The PPT had better bring in heavy duty resources if they expect to stop the market downturn. Fortunately, so far the trend is orderly.

What I find intriguing is that the US markets statistically tend to be bullish before a major holiday -- the bearish trends usually occur after the holiday. This Thanksgiving looks different.

Gold stocks look very weak.

I must say that the argument here about whether or not gold is money
is not pertinent to whether it is a good investment. Clearly, to me
anyway, it is impractical to think of the world economy based on gold coins that we carry in our pockets. What will move the gold price, and the price of other hard assets, however, is a lowering of confidence in fiat money as a store of value. And the technological developments of the last twenty years ( or the next twenty ) do NOTHING to lower this risk. Witness the use of dollars created by the fed to
address the problems that we are reading about in the news today. The increase in money supply figures recently speak for themselves.

Don't get all excited. You see my e-gold is privately held and nobody else can lay claim to it. It is mine.

Your paper revolves around the banking system as does your whole life.. Think about it. Your bank can loan out portions of your money.

Not my e-gold. Big difference. But then you will find that out when you go to the bank and try to get all your paper promises. Go try and spend a promise.

I will wave from across the street through the window where I sit eating a lovely meal.

Can anyone tell me in any period of history when gold has been a medium of exchange without a powerful government to back the price of gold and defend its owners. I can see the CB driving the price of gold to levels where no one wants to hold it. The level will shut down mines and mining companies will go out of business. This will limit the ammount of supplies comming to market. And at the depressed levels the banks that have foreward loaned to the larger mining companies will demand their gold. Sure there will be people that own gold. But hey, here is a NEW gold backed currency. Everyone will cheer. The paperbugs because they can continue with commerce and the goldbugs because the rest of the world has seen the error of their ways. And no man my buy or sell anything unless he uses this currency. And has the mark in his hand or forehead. Beware what one wishes for.

Anyone: I just got a credit card offer where they will credit my account $100 for opening the account. Now, they know that I pay my balances in full, so I'm not their 'preferred customer'. My question: Could it be that they are trying to shore up their financials by extending 'good credit'? Do they measure their bad debts as a percentage of all debts, or 'potential debts', i.e. credit extended?
Like it matters anyway- I've seen too many bogus financial statements to put too much stake in any of them. Sorry to say it Karlito, but it ain't too hard to to get b.s. past the accountants...

As I make additional purchases of mining shares and libs I am faced with the problem with justifying these acquisitions with my wife. She has worked in the brokerage industry for years and is brainwashed by the blue-chip mania. She keeps telling me that I'm too stubborn in my beliefs about gold, silver, and energy and that I should straighten out before it's too late. Is there anyone else out there in this situation?

I think you've missed my point, which is that "a promise is a promise". Privately held or not, your e-gold is still a promise to deliver, until you go and pick it up. In that respect, it is no different from any other form of negotiable instrument.

Tolerant, I must apologise, because I am rather enjoying this debate, but unfortunately, I have to run. Perhaps we could resume at another time ?

Tim

The recent post by aurator ( Undervaluation & Shortage of Reserves ) " is EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT in view of the worlds now spiraling trend - especially in Asia!!!!! It demands more careful consideration and evaluation.

History never repeats?

Exerpt from book review on-line "Gold, France and the Great Depression"

http://www.yale.edu/yup/F97/johnsonF97.html


H. Clark Johnson develops a convincing and original narrative of the events that led to the major economic catastrophe of the twentieth century. He identifies the undervaluation and consequent shortage of world gold reserves after World War I as the underlying cause of a sustained international price deflation that brought the Great Depression. And, he argues, the reserve-hoarding policies of central banks--particularly the Bank of France--were its proximate cause.

My HISTORY OF GOLD clearly describes why the US President, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, in 1934 revalued GOLD during the Worlds Worst Depression:

Relative to today's world economic conditions, it is imperative to remember that F.D.R.'s stated purpose for dramatically increasing the value of gold was to boost commodity prices ( especially farm products ) and create more employment for the millions who were suffering the devastating effects of the
Great Depression.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/history_goldf.html

Enjoy the day, be safe. I look forward to resuming our conversation.

Karlito, mon ami! You state that starving people would kill the holders of gold. Historical fact shows that the gold-holders can afford to pay private armies/mercenaries to protect themselves and their families so they can go on eating whilst the masses are just subsisting. How long do you think our buddy Saddam Hussein would be in power if he didn't have the gold to pay off his brown shirts? Do you really believe they would accept fiat paper. No way, Jos.

E-gold, e-cash, e-mail, e-spam -- none of it is worth anything if you remove the e-. If the e-lectronic systems fail that make these world trades possible, you may have e-anything anywhere, but unless you can go retrieve it ( before it is stolen ) it will not benefit you at all. Hold the physical! It is true that the e-items are real and tangible, but if the e-medium goes down for any length of time, you will be unable to use or profit by them. In silicon terminology, these items will fall into the 'big bit bucket in the sky.'

I am. My girlfriend kinda thinks I'm nuts. She believes in certificates of deposit and says, "You ain't gettin' no interest, sucka!" When I point out that after taxes and inflation you're lucky to keep level, she says, "Well, I see how well your gold and silver are doing!" :- (

November 25, 1997
Rating deals new blow to Japan financial sector

TOKYO, ( Reuters ) - Japan's troubled financial sector was dealt a new blow Tuesday when U.S. credit rating agency Standard & Poor's Corp. said it had lowered its ratings of the country's fourth-biggest trust bank.

The news came as a shock not only to the bank -- Yasuda Trust and Banking Co. -- but to several Japanese banking analysts as well. "I don't even want to think about the implications of the downgrading for the financial sector, which has already been hard hit by the collapse of Hokkaido Takushoku Bank and Yamaichi Securities," said a financial analyst at a major securities house.

He said financial markets both at home and abroad have become increasingly nervous about credit risks of Japanese financial firms associated with Yamaichi Securities, Hokkaido Takushoku Bank and Sanyo Securities, all of which collapsed this month.

Yamaichi, Japan's fourth largest brokerage, announced Monday that it would shut down its operations, becoming Japan's biggest-ever corporate failure.

S&P said it had cut its long-term rating of Yasuda Trust and related entities to BB+ from BBB-, and lowered its short-term rating of the firm to B from A-3. S&P's BB+ long-term and B short-term ratings are speculative, better known as "junk bond," grades.

Another banking industry analyst said that as a result of the downgrade, Yasuda Trust could experience problems raising funds from financial markets.

S&P said its move reflected growing concern about Yasuda's weak financial position amid a very severe operating environment in Japan. "Over the medium term, it will be difficult for Yasuda to overcome challenges such as its seriously impaired asset quality, rising stock-market volatility, growing wariness among investors, and a slumping domestic economy," it
said.

Yasuda Trust responded immediately by saying it did not agree with the rating. "We are confident that our competitiveness and profitability will remain stable by offering high-quality products and services," it said.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BROKERS-YAMAICHI-BANK.html

Chuga, Chuga, Chuga, Chuga, Chuga, Chuga...etc...etc...

Choo!! Choo!!........ ( doppler effect ) ..............BONK!.....ugh.......

Tell her that that is just one of the beauties of the relationship you have with her. You have your base's covered.

Bart K, all: Our financial dynamic data dynamo - Donald, just e-mailed me that he has not been able to log on to Kitco because he has no password. Bart - could you see if there is a problem?

This is a thanks in advance from me and I'm sure from many other Kitcoites - posters and lurkers -- JTF

JTF
Once again the markets internals look sick.
Adv/dec, up/down vols and new highs/lows all negative.
Looks good for an afternoon sell-off.
Swing chart looks sick - ready to fall over.


Quote com has gone crazy.
Is anyone else having problems with it?

I agree with you. I may be a Neanderthal, but I prefer to hold the little lovelies *in my hand.* They say a chain is only strong as its weakest link. There are power outs and brown outs; you can't get through to your broker ( busy, busy, busy signal ) and frequently you can't get online ( "AOL Offline" ) . Some days, when you can get online, the Web seems like it's stuck in amber due to excessive "traffic," and you get error messages ( 401 - Cannot find server; blah, blah, blah ) A bird in the hand, baby!

ANOTHER: "I and my father have done battle with such evil and won! We have 6000 years of history as our armor!"

Your posts, are like the setting presented in the "Wizard of OZ", and you attempt to have those that read your material, believe one need only follow the "Yellow Brick Road" Get a Grip eh!

ANOTHER: "I and my father have done battle with such evil and won! We have 6000 years of history as our armor!"

Your posts, are like the setting presented in the "Wizard of OZ", and you attempt to have those that read your material, believe one need only follow the "Yellow Brick Road" Get a Grip eh!

She is smart enough to see that. Also, she hasn't turned down any gold jewelry yet. {:- ) }

Silver is UP 6 cents !!! Eat that, paper-hangers !!!

To All

For comment - As you must have heard, Anglos is in

the process of picking up JCI's gold interest notably

Western Areas ( with more reserves than Barrick ) and

Joel - They plan to merge these companies along with

Vaal Reefs Southvaal and I forget who else into one

real whopper of a gold producer.

They are getting Wes-Areas at a price that has to be

embarrassing.

Anyway - to my point - lets pretend we are the top

management of this new Anglo gold company. We go to a

Central Bank and we borrow gold at 2-3 % per year -

ONLY WE DONT SELL THE GOLD - WE HOLD IT. Costs us 2-3

% per year but I think it may have beneficial effects

on the price of the metal - don't you??.

If I were short gold and I saw somebody do this -

I might get a bit worried about it - wouldnt you ??

And Anglos for a measly 2-3 % per year would HOLD

THAT GOLD and more if they could get it OFF THE MARKET-

FOREVER if need be.

Just a few thoughts ..

I often find that there is significant emotional attachment in the money "styles" we have. Suggest the only way to deal with this is to discuss each others feelings without trying to persuade each other. Talk about feelings and not just numbers. Why is it that you feel PM's are better? Caution or fear? Why does she feel impelled to equities? Greed?

Usually women are the more conservative in the marrage since they tend to operate on the basis of the idea that they may not have the money again ( men tend to think they can always earn more ) . In this case it sounds like she is the risk taker ( or feels that her 'herd' at work is 'right' ) . Ask her to identify the major influences on her thinking and do the same for yours. Also consider discussing upside potential verses downside risk as one element in determining why one would ( or not ) want to participate in a particular market.

Finally possibly together review a 1929/1987/1997 comparison chart to show her your concern about the curve of the market as it has been played out in the past. Maybe reading about the 1929 crash and the economic/financial millue of the times ( as has been mentioned here on occation ) in a book might help.

Same problem. No advice.

With the amount of gold that I own as a percentage of my assets I have my bases smothered.

I never said anything about anyone killing the holders of gold....

I have no idea what Sodam InSane pays his loyal troops. Some probably believe themselves to be loyal defenders of their homeland.

I think your girlfriend is right.

Uh Oh Allen, group therapy again! The psycho/emotional reason for Goldbug beliefs is masochism. A deep seated need to be a loser.....

November 25, 1997
Japan's just too big to go bust, economists say

TOKYO ( Reuters ) - A quick glance at Japan the day after Yamaichi Securities, its fourth-biggest brokerage collapsed, and it eerily resembles the imploding smaller Asian economies.

A closer look, however, reveals Japan is clearly different -- bigger and tamer.

Japan shares with its troubled neighbours a raft of ingredients for financial disaster: sick financial institutions, heavy regulation that constricts business growth, and vast quantities of non-performing loans.

Yamaichi was the third large financial institution to go bust in as many weeks, following Sanyo Securities and Hokkaido Takushoku Bank.

All had done during Japan's late 1980s' "bubble economy" what southeast Asia and South Korea did in the 1990s: overexpand, thinking the good times would continue.

They mixed their optimism with an unhealthy denial of their problems. In southeast Asia, this took the form of blaming the crisis on others, notably foreign speculators.

Less than a year ago, Southeast Asia's economies were still referred to with glowing epithets -- the "Tiger economies," the "Asian miracle." Their fall from grace came as a shock.


On Monday in Vancouver, President Bill Clinton greeted Hashimoto with the plea: "We are worried whether the Japanese economy has the strength to make an Asian recovery possible."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BROKERS-YAMAICHI-ASIA.html

sharefin: 20 minute delayed reports from Telescan look ok. The sp-500 peaked just after opening at 954, bottomed at about 946 approx 2 hours from opening, and is now below 948 - over 4 hours after opening.

What is interesting is that there is a Fairly regular oscillation of about one dollar with a 20-30 minute period. This oscillation was evident yesterday but it is more regular and pronouced. Competing computerized trading programs? If that is what is causing the oscillations - I hope whatever it is doesn't get into sync!

Karlito, FINALLY a breath of fresh and intelligent air on the site! Just let a Goldbug take a gold coin to any major dept. store, gas station, supermarket, et al, and see what kind of blank stares they get when they try to exchange it for good and services!

"Store of value"?? It's been the WORST POSSIBLE "store of value" for many years running, and the proponents of that dead philosophy, can only laemly point to some mythical future meltdown where "all will be lost" except for the value of Gold. This is the only way they can hold on to some hope that they havn't been misplacing their investment dollars for the past 2 decades!!!

November 25, 1997
Big broker, three former executives plead guilty to illegal payoffs

TOKYO ( AP ) - Japan's largest brokerage and three former executives pleaded guilty Tuesday to illegally funneling profits to an accused corporate racketeer, acknowledging their part in a scandal that has rocked Japan's financial industry.

Nomura Securities Co. and three of its top officials were charged with
providing a total of $2.91 million US in illegal profits to Ryuichi Koike, an accused racketeer.

The admission of guilt came at the first session of their trial in Tokyo
District Court, a court official said. Nomura is the first of Japan's major brokerages to go on trial in the scandal.

Nomura could face a maximum fine of $787,400. Former president Hikeo
Sakamaki, 62, and former executives Shimpei Matsuki, 53, and Nobutaka
Fujikura, 55, could be sentenced to up to one year in prison or fined up to $7,870.

Their trial will continue, with later testimony having a bearing on their
sentences. Tuesday's court session came one day after Yamaichi Securities Co., another of Japan's big brokerages, collapsed under a burden of debts, slumping stock prices and the effect of scandals, including charges that it also paid off Koike.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Japan-Nomura.html

LGB- I know how much you love conspiracies- please read "The Secret Life of Bill Clinton" by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Please tell me how the main thrust of his book is wrong. I'm serious. I'm pretty good at distinguishing between hype, wishfull thinking, and solid evidence. I'm a statistician. But I can't see the holes in his arguments.

I extend this request to you or anyone else, with complete sincerity. Because if what is in this book is remotely true, then we've got far bigger problems than the price of gold and fiat currancies.

Gold is money. In the late 1970's when gold was selling for about $150, I bought a kilo of gold paying cash. My law partner said what good is it? I said "let's" see, so I went to a used car lot and announced that I had no faith in cash and was dealing in gold. At first the owner stated that he had no interest, but then he saw the bar, bright and yellow and he wanted it. We negotiated and it seemed that any number of deals could be made at the world price. I doubt that I could have made the same deal had I taken a cow or port belly. Any where in this world, even in remote areas where the price of gold is broadcast with tom-toms, you can deal in gold.

The problem with gold is that it is difficult to carry large quantities. So you issue paper as a warehouse receipt entitling the bearer to redeem in gold. If paper entitling one to receive gold is money, then the gold is money. But it is argued, you do not get interest on the gold. That is true if it is in your pocket. But if it is in the form of a warehouse receipt, you can place it as collateral negotiating any deal that a C.D., land, or anything else of value would command. I
Another problem is that there is not enough gold around to back all the currencies at a reasonable level. If it were allowed to soar to the point that all currencies were backed by it, presumably at some point where extracting gold from sea water was economic, vast resources would be expended extracting the metal which would serve the world poorly. Why should not pork bellies,land etc. be recognized as value also even if difficult or impossible to transport around. After all, most of the gold stays in a depository. So, maybe gold, is just a handy commodity to barter with. Competing currencies are healthy, providing people with options while instilling some disapline on governments.

So why is gold in the tank. Obviously, people stillf have considerable faith in the currencies and debt instruments. Just some thoug

CNBC just announced they will be going live to coverage of a major securities indictment. Anybody know about this in the US.

I am curious. How about a taste of the thoughts in the book?

With all due respect LGB, neither is welcome...
plastic please...

JTF
Could I have the url for telescan please.
I am having no joy with quote.com.

Thank you, my friend! I already know I'm nuts; it's one of my endearing traits. ;- ) My girlfriend calls me "Silas Marner, the weaver of Raveloe", because Silas spent his days weaving cloth and his nights sifting through the piles of gold he obsessively accumulated...Hey, it beats obsessively washing your hands like Lady MacBeth. "Out, out, damned fiat paper!"

I apologize for my miserable performance in finding some solid "in their words" info from the British point of view. For what it is worth I have been hearing more and more about the direct comparison between J & US and E & US - 29 - 97 - not a pretty picture.

http://www.usagold.com

click on Daily Quote & Market Report

When everything is overvalued by at least 100%, the inevitable adjustment has to be very painful. If I loaned 89% of value on a project that was overvalued by 100%, when the day of reconing came, I would calculate that I would be under by 30%. The U.S. banks were recently caught in such a position, but our government lent them money for nothing which it borrowed back providing a profit ( thereby stealing froom the taxpayer ) and somehow restored most to a healt. Japan has been working to solve the problem for some time, but it is apparently too big. What happens if it implodes with all its financial institutions going bust. Do stonger currencies enter the fray and pick off the plums.

Obviously you don't run a global business. Fiat money has become
more, and More and MORE of a bottom line problem ( Banker's Trust
doesn't create those super-duper hedge derivatives for nought ) .

The global CFO's increasing problem ( with the phasing out of a
stable key currency ) has been whose fiat money, on what day,
worth what, in what market, hedged against what other commodity ( fiat currencies ARE commodities too ) ... Remember Pillsbury? Dell Computers?
Metallgesellschaft?

To: KGB2
With all due respect, they ( department store, et.al. ) want neither
gold nor cash.
Plastic please.

6pak: Thanks for the news on Yasuda Trust. It was only a few days after the US ratings agencies lowered Yamaichi's credit-rating, that Yamaichi failed. A failure by Yasuda Trust ( a large bank ) would be even more devastating than the Yamaichi failure ( a large broker ) . Any bets on when the run starts at Yasuda? And how long after that before it closes its doors?

Shoot, Tolerant1, I'd forgive you just 'bout anything!
But we were on the right path, yes? And no, it is not a
pretty picture.
Frankly, holders of $ need to mentally prepare themselves
for one heck of a devaluation. ( I personally think it is
unproductivity to do the inflation/deflation bit--think
instability, at least for awhile, and then devaluation ) .

Hang in there. ( that's an order... )

You stated, "Can anyone tell me in any period of history when gold has been a medium of exchange without a powerful government to back the price of gold and defend its owners?"
The last time I heard someone say, "If the US government didn't *support* the price of gold, it would fall to $1/oz." ( !!! ) was 1968. What a crock! We've ALL been brainwashed into quoting the "price" of gold in dollars. The fact is, gold is the standard, and we should be quoting the "price" of dollars in OUNCES! If you look at the long-term trend since 1795, the "price" of the dollar has gone from 0.05159 ounce ( the earliest U.S. gold coins, $10 gold pieces, contained 0.5159 ounce ) to 0.00333 ounce today, a decrease ( or devaluation ) to 6.46% of its original value.

sharefin: I pay $35US/month. This internet service is much cheaper than Telescan's traditional service. You can see some info without paying -- but you will see their is a wealth of services -- can search all US and Canadian stock exchanges as well as non-North Amerian exchanges for an extra fee. What I like is that with a little fiddling you can print out all the options listed for a given stock or index -- so you can figure out how a particular option will respond to a market shift before you buy the option. Option charts are also available.

The only part I don't like is the general news section -- not useful. But -- news specific for a certain stock is worth reading.

General login site:

http://www.tscn.com

According to a Bridge News story released a few minutes ago: "Rumors circulated that another 2 Japanese banks might be on the verge of collapse." That's why US stocks sold off from the higher opening this morning. They gave no indication of which banks were rumored to be in trouble.

The advance-decline numbers are horrendous again, today. Over 1000 more declines than advancers on the 3 major US stock markets.

Regarding your 10:06 about the oil-backed dollar. Is the cry from Saudi Arabia to increase its daily OPEC quota a Fed manipulation to keep cheap oil propping up the value of the US dollar at a time when billions of US dollars will have to be created to bail out Japan Inc., Korea and the IMF? And should Saudi Arabia fall into the hands of Abdullah, could this US/SAUDI arrangement to keep oil prices low to support the US dollar fall apart and lead to higher oil prices, a collapsing dollar and soaring gold price? Please respond!

tolerant1: Isn't it interesting that USAgold is now saying what I and several others have been saying on Kitco? Namely, that when ever the markets head south, gold heads south too! USAgold also states that they suspect the the idea is to discourage gold investment as a flight to safety when the markets are doing poorly. Apparently this was orchestrated by a US-IMF manipulation in the 70's before the runup on gold.

Looks like the gold loan activity is peaking, according to USAgold.

http://www.cs.caltech.edu/~adam/LEAD/harsh.html

THERE IS MUCH LEFT TO HAPPEN IN FOREIGN MARKETS YET

With an estimated $200 billion in accumulated non-performing loans - five times the equity capital of all Chinese banks - China's banking system is essentially insolvent. At least 50% of China's state-owned companies are in the red, constituting a far larger chunk of the economy than failing companies representing any other Asian country.

WILL the smart Chinese again seek shelter in the currency, which has served them well for over 3,000 years: GOLD?

http://:www.ucc.uconn.edu/~isa94001/social.html

tolerant1: That was a great read! The question is when will the bears cover their shorts.

Clearly the gold price subject is about to heat up. It would be a massive understatement to say the Veneroso report will cause sparks to fly.

Tuesday November 25, 1:10 pm Eastern Time

Tokuyo City Bank concedes failure--Nikkei

NEW YORK, Nov 25 ( Reuters ) - Tokuyo City Bank, a secondary regional bank weighed down by bad loans and mounting losses, is conceding failure,
Nikkei English News reported, citing the Nihon Keizai Shimbun's Tokyo Wednesday morning edition.

Citing sources close to the situation, Nikkei, which is monitored here, said negotiations apparently were under way for Tokuyo City Bank to transfer
operations to regional lenders within Miyagi Prefecture, with Sendai Bank leading the bailout.

In order to protect Tokuyo City Bank depositors, financial authorities expected to extend assistance to Sendai Bank through the Deposit Insurance Corp,
Nikkei said.

In addition to Sendai Bank, Seventy-Seven ( 77 ) Bank ( 8341.T ) and several local credit unions were likely prospects to take over segments of Tokuyo
City Bank's operations, Nikkei sources told the paper.

Tokuyo City Bank booked a pre-tax loss of over 400 million yen for the first fiscal half ending September 30, Nikkei said. Tokuyo City Bank closed at 48
yen, down 12 yen in Tokyo trading on Tuesday.


Related News Categories: US Market News, international, options

http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~isa94001/social.html

LEARN FROM MY MISTAKE, Kamrade Karlito

Kamrade Karlito: Your comments this morning cause me undue stress and sadness. Consequently, I am compelled to tell you the unfortunate story of my life - which, BTW, was made into Hollywood movie a few years back. The movie about my miserable existence encompasses the historic saga of the Chinese Yuan... please read paper money. Incidentally, my story was made world-famous by Director Bertolucci's - in the 1987 world-acclaimed movie "THE LAST EMPEROR" - Winner of 9 Oscars, and documented facts about gold's relationship to the above.

The story ( movie ) is as entertaining as it is relevant to gold's current situation. The story also gives a hint of what we might expect future GOLD prices to be - in view of the fact that China is today the world's largest consumer of gold, AND as I speak Asian Banks are falling like flies, abundantly sprayed with your most effective insect-killer RAID.

My name is Pu Yi ( I was born The Last Emperor of China - circa 1930s ) . Recently, I wrote a letter to my Swiss Banker, expressing my concerns about the South-East Asia meltdown. My correspondence was sent to the president of a major international bank, located in London. All of cited facts are accurate and authentic.

To fully appreciate and understand my letter, it would help if you had seen the picture - and also have a little knowledge of Chinese Culture, their taste in food and their almost fanatical affinity to gold ( Chuk Kam ) . Enclosed herewith is a copy of my letter.

**********************************************

19 November 1997

Bank President
MAJOR INTERNATIONAL BANK
500 Bank Row
London EC2M 2RH - E N G L A N D
Dear Mr. Bank President:


REF: China and MY FAMILIES Money


The sad events of our history prompts me to ask your advice about a long plaguing problem of my Family.

I am Pu Yi from the region of Manchoukuo.

Indulge me to paint a dreadful tale of woe.

First, I was used and abused by the marauding Japanese. Then, comrade Chairman Mao graced my life by reorganizing my way of thinking. Would that these trials and tribulations have granted me a free-pass into the gates of heaven, but alas fate subjected me and my Family to the most devastating invader of our humble existence: insidious inflation and the relentless debauchery of our paper currency. At the risk of appearing cavalier in my thoughts on this subject, I find it almost black humor to liken the incessant loss of purchasing power of our meager savings - to the infamous Chinese Water Torture: cruel, relentless, pitiless, ruthless, unmerciful and utterly indiscriminate in its pernicious effect on my Family and its economic well-being.

Consider the following. Reliable Western sources have stated that since 1970 the Chinese Yuan price of Chuk Kam ( gold ) has soared from 85 Yuans to 3,500 Yuans ( 1994 ) per ounce of the noble metal. If this is indeed true, my Family has lost an emperors ransom in purchasing power ( humblest pardons for unworthy pun ) . Specifically, this represents a compound annual appreciation of 16.8% in terms of our Chinese money ( no pun intended ) -- a princely return in any kingdom. Regrettably, my Family had all its savings in paper money and not tael gold bars - safely stowed at the bottom of the rice jar. But this tale of woe is now history. My Family must think of the future - bleak as it is.

Per eminent financial analysts, falling currencies and stock markets in Asia will most likely cause panic in China, and consequently a rush for gold. Furthermore, todays breaking news informs that more Japanese banks are at the very brink of bankruptcy.

Mr. Bank President, my Family appreciates that history repeats itself - and history never repeats itself with equal frequency. However, the constantly increasing Yuan value of Chuk Kam ( gold ) is a difficult argument to refute. Based upon history, the currently rising price of the precious metal in all ASIAN currencies, and the bleak, uncertain panorama for the panda people, would not my Family be wise and prudent shrewd investors to convert much of our assets into tael gold bars... as our wise ancestors have done during the last 3,000 years of trashing paper money?

Since Hollywood has globally distributed the expos of my opera-tragic life ( may Bertoluccis ancestors be eternally condemned to a strict diet of cheese and chop-suey ) - and may they all live interesting lives, I have decided to change my name from Pu Yi to something more substantial and lasting, like Chuk Kam.

Humbly respectful,


Mr. Chuk Kam ( a.k.a. Pu Yi )

a reply,

Date: Tue Nov 25 1997 13:04

THE GOLDEN PROPHET ( ANOTHER'S 10:06 ) ID#372262:

Mr. GP,

It is as you say. However, I do not feel that the reprise

of gold to lower the cost of oil was a bad thing. In reality

the governments were only using real money, gold, to

supplement our cost of oil. The world economy has

a great benefit from this! We all have gained.

The world mining industry gained much from the forward

sales. The great increase in gold produced was used

for our purpose. For a time the mines made profits.

The great mistake by the BIS was in underestimating

the Asians. Some big traders said they would buy it all

below $365+/- and they did. Thats what forced LBMA

to go on a spree of paper selling! Now, its a mess.

At some point the fire in Asia will drive all of them into

gold. It will end at that time.

ALL: I do not offer to prove my thoughts. If what is

written was easy for all to find, the information would

be of no use to you. Many will take no motions to

change their ways and protect worth. Such is life.

Each will chose his way and as always the future

will teach the truth.

I totally agree with Veneroso's analysis, but somehow can't believe that the CB's will let it become reality. If the CB's have to take action and sell the deficit when is the latest that they can do it? Aren't notices going out very soon. Your insight is great to all of us non-lemmings.

Date: Tue Nov 25 1997 13:38
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

Don't get to frustrated ANOTHER. This is a tough board ( as it should be ) , on the whole we appreciate your views and input. We all know it is up to each individual to sift the ashes and read the winds.

It is very difficult for each of us to stand our ground with gold being constantly pushed to new lows with each release of what would normally be bullish news. Such is life, I for one will be incredibly poor soon, or very secure. In either case I will have the shiny bullion around me to comfort me.

ANOTHER, JTF, GP, BIS ET AL: A few weeks ago GOLD-EAGLE received a study from someone in London. And although the author/analyst use an announced fictitious meeting to convey his message, all the numbers and charts are REAL AND AUTHENTIC DATA - which can be readily verified by anyone. In view of the very interesting Kitco discussion during the last few days about the inextricable relationship between GOLD, OIL & THE DOLLAR, I feel it would be productive and enlightening to again post the analysis made by Sheik Abu Bekr al-Rashid:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/gold_cost_oil.html

ANOTHER, JTF, GP, BIS ET AL: A few weeks ago GOLD-EAGLE received a study from someone in London. And although the author/analyst use an announced fictitious meeting to convey his message, all the numbers and charts are REAL AND AUTHENTIC DATA - which can be readily verified by anyone. In view of the very interesting Kitco discussion during the last few days about the inextricable relationship between GOLD, OIL & THE DOLLAR, I feel it would be productive and enlightening to again post the analysis made by Sheik Abu Bekr al-Rashid:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/gold_cost_oil.html

Your advisor ( played by Peter O'Toole in the movie ) taught you English well. Is it that you must maintain a low profile that you speak through Mr. Vronsky?

but this stuff on China and Oil sure is interesting
( too bad this isn't the site for it )

I think we are very near. There are too many things happening at once. It would seem that we could get the answer any hour or day now.

Tinker Belle Economy Guidlines

1. Audience MUST believe in Safety of Investments ( US investments )
so Justice Department knocks down MAJOR CRIMINAL Stock FRAUD ( over 5 million dollars, IMAGINE!!!! ) ; now you know how they are watching out for You...

truly brilliant PR, the Round-eyed Magician KNOWS his audience...

Watch the Round-Eyed Magicians hands...
Because you can NOT believe important, what they TELL you is important

Sharefin, JTF was there a little ramp up in the SP futures just
before, during, or immediately after the BIG announcement ( or am I
too paranoid? )

Does anyone else find it unusual that the price of gold/silver on EBN has not changed in two hours, 302.25/5.41. Meanwhile the PM stocks act like it went through 300. And Yes I hit reload!:- ) )

And the only answers offered by the regulars were
"you're going to be measuring your gains in dollars,
not cents". This was completely unwarranted advice,
completely unsupported, yet typical of what kind
of answer you'd expect when you come to Kitco.

Thank god for RJ. Too bad he only posts occasionally,
and then only at night. One would hope that a
newcomer with a serious question would scroll back
and get information from a week rather than take
the four or five cheerleading posts that are fired
back automatically.

Where is Stephen Mooney to take the credit for
telling everyone to buy gold and silver? Where
is S. Puetz to take the credit for telling
everyone to buy gold and silver? How can
a market which has weak fundamentals day after
day after day continue to outperform such a
solid investment as precious metals?

What this site needs is analysis, not empty-headed mouthings
from the book of gold. When are you people at least
going to preface your propaganda with "Although
it has not been a good short-term investment, gold
will blah blah blah new all-time highs blah blah blah
a gold bar on every threshold blah blah blah blah"?

Now taking nominations for Kitco savant of the year.

My nomination: RJ

From the one who continues to be the luckiest
darn sage in Kitco perpetuity, forever and ever amen

Hecate

Isn't it interesting, the coincidental holiday timing for these dips in Ag prices?

Check the tape on Silver, you show zero knowledge of the market. I for one have made very healthy money in silver stocks and intend on doing so in the future.

Don't mislead people or the novice as you put it, by mixing the gold and silver markets.

And it has not happened but two times in the last five years.
It is extremely unusual for gold and silver not to increase
in price in the months leading up to the December holidays.
Gold did nothing last year prior to December, which proved
to be a harbinger of things to come. That it is doing so
again this year given it has so many reasons not too is
particularly devastating.

sometime within the next three weeks.

Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick

Roebear ...EBN is notoriously wrong ... Spot did go ( briefly ) to 299 and closed at 300+ ( a tiny bit ) ...try Kitco Frame version or DBC

Somebody said to the specific question of whether physical silver
should be sold since it tanked all the time when it got to these
levels "You will be measuring your gains in dollars". If someone
has a problem distinguishing a question about physical silver
from silver-mining stocks, then that particular someone should
refrain from offering advice.

Who is misleading whom?

Can anyone confirm if today is OTC AU expiry?

Angered Japanese clients besiege Yamaichi Securities
TOKYO, Nov 25 ( AFP ) - Thousands of angered customers Tuesday
besieged the offices of Japan's disgraced Yamaichi Securities Co.
Ltd., demanding their money back after the country's biggest
business failure since World War II.
"I no longer trust any security houses because even a giant firm
like Yamaichi collapsed," said a former broker in his 60's who
withdrew his money from the brokerage's Tokyo headquarters.
"I expect more collapses are in waiting," he said. The problems
in the Japanese financial sector were "really serious," the man
said, adding that: "I myself am at loss where to put my money from
now on."
Customers expressed anger and distrust towards Yamaichi and the
whole securities and banking industry.
"I withdrew all my contracts with Yamaichi," said a restaurateur
in his 70's, adding that he had lost four-to-five million yen
( 31,000 to 39,000 dollars ) in his investments.
"I have had enough with stocks," he said outside the Yamaichi
headquarters, calling on Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka to quit.
"He should be held accountable for causing this enormous economic
anxiety."
A man in his early 50's, manager of an accounting division at a
major Japanese company, said he would be "much better off keeping my
money at home instead of depositing in a bank."
"I have not decided what to do with my stocks, either selling or
keeping them. I have a pessimistic view on the future of the
Japanese economy and its current depressing state will, I have to
say, continue," he said.
"I no longer have confidence either in securities houses or in
banks in Japan."
A housewife in her 60s declared: "I can't trust financial
institutions in Japan anymore.
"I used part of my husband's retirement allowance to purchase
stocks. Although I just withdrew from Yamaichi, I have not decided
what to do with my stocks," she added.
Following the news of Yamaichi's collapse Monday, a public
holiday, thousands of customers lined up in front of Yamaichi
outlets, many waiting for hours before they had even opened.
At a Yamaichi Securities outlet in Urawa, northwest of Tokyo,
desperate customers filled the office by late morning and 400 people
were forced to wait outside.

If you look and read you will see I said sell half your physical and buy silver stocks.

If you don't, I will

Labour=Wealth=Value=Gold

Credit Diverts Production....Government "Encouragement" to Business is sometimes as much to be feared as government hostility. This supposed "Encouragement" often takes the form of direct grant of governemnt credit or a guarantee of private loans. The question of government credit can often be complicated, because it involves the possibility of inflation.

The proposal is frequently made that the government ought to assume the risks that are "Too great for private industry". This means that bureaucrates should be permitted to take risks with the taxpayers' money that no one is willing to take with his own. Such a policy would lead to evils of many different kinds. It would lead to favoritism; to the making of loans to friends, or in return for bribes. It would inevitably lead to scandals. It would lead to recriminations whenever the taxpayers' money was thrown away on enterprises that failed.

If the government is going to bear the risks, why should it not also get the profits? What justification could there possibly be, in fact, for asking the taxpayers to take the risks while permitting private capitalists ( Central Banks & shareholders of. Also Commercial banks ) to keep the profits?

The government lenders, are either those who have passed civil service examinations, and know how to answer hypothetical questions hypothetically, or they are those who can give the most plausible reasons for making loans and the most plausible explanations of why it wasn't their fault that the loans failed. ( USofA Treasury & Canadian Finance Dept. )

The government's funds all come from taxes. even the much vaunted "government credit" rests on the assumption that its loans will ultimately be repaid out of the proceeds of taxes. When the government makes loans or subsidies to business, what it does is to tax successful private business in order to support unsuccessful private business.

USofA Welfare Expenditures ( 1979 ) $250 billion "National Welfare Industry", composed of 5 Million Public Workers distributing payments and services to 50 Million Beneficiaries. ( The Welfare Industry 1978 Charles Hobbs )

In a primitive community, or among pioneers, before the division of labor has arisen, a man works soley for himself or his immediate family. What he consumes is identical with what he produces. There is always a direct and immediate connection between his output and his satisfactions.

When an elaborate and minute division of labor has set in, this direct and immediate connection ceases to exist. Result, the price of everything you buy must be low, but it is in your interest for the price of the commodity or services that you have to sell must be high. This doctrine is publicly false. It can never be applied all around the community circle. For its application would mean economic suicide.

The democratic system of informed consumers, are better than any group of bureaucrates. The citizen should be allowed to make his/her demand via casting his/her vote when a consumer/citizen purchases a product, or he/her could cast a dozen fresh votes. every day; whereas bureaucrates would try to solve all issues for the consumer, not what the consumer themselves wanted, but what the bureaucrates decided was good for the consumer. Usually, the bureaucrats are disturbed by the consumers having such freedom, resulting in some interests of a wailing pressure group, gets results by the intervention of the bureaucrats.

Gold is being surpressed by bureacrats, to allow the interests of the wailing Federal Reserve Banks, and Wall Street interests, to cover-up the mess, that has been created by the *FREE* BUSINESS INTERESTS.

Yes, the tax payers are about to be forced to bail out the wailers. The Bureaucrats are in the paid service, of the wailing interest groups, International Banking Groups, known as **THE CENTRAL BANKER **

Thanks again for not reading my posts. I have spoken clearly on my thoughts. And I have been the first make fun of myself. But that is not the motive of your ilk. You mislead and twist.

I do not.

Oh, thanks for not acknowledging me, again.

Thanks Bill, do you happen to have an URL for DBC, lost some of my bookmarks and that was one.

Bart...do what you must...before the discussion degenerates.

No Fed conspiracy wrt to the Saudis desire for a higher OPEC quota... they simply need the money.

As is the problem with all attempts to set the price of anything, you create enormous incentives to cheat. While the price of oil is inelastic in the short run, meaning you can hike it and most everyone will pay up. In the long run its very elastic. Folks find alternatives. The biggest alternative being improved technology and information. OPEC is a victim of their own success, by pushing up the price of oil, they encouraged consumers to find alternatives, and other producers to produce....

What we see in the price of oil, as is the case in the price of all commodities in an information economy is a steady downward trend. Its not a conspiracy, its just the way markets treat all commodities, including gold in an age when information is the source of all value.

Would be most appreciated if you could explain what you meant ( specifically ) by yours of 15:00! Thanks! Your humble servant...

DBC home page = http:/www.dbc.com/
DBC Financial News = http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/marketdata.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

South Korean banks, businesses hit by 336 million dollar scam
SEOUL, Nov 25 ( AFP ) - South Korean prosecutors Tuesday busted a
ring of scamsters who cheated banks and businesses out of a record
375.2 billion won ( 336 million dollars ) , officials said.
The alleged ring leader, Byun In-Ho, 40, and eight accomplices
swindled eight banks, netting 236.7 billion won ( 215 millon
dollars ) , by forging documents on 204 occasions between January and
June last year, they said.
"This is a vicious crime which took advantage of the ongoing
economic crisis and political turbulence," Senior Prosecutor An
Dae-Hee told journalists.

SKorean minister tries to stop panic bank withdrawals
SEOUL, Nov 25 ( AFP ) - South Korean Finance Minister Lim
Chang-Yuel Tuesday told South Koreans they need not fear they would
lose their life savings in banks, even if they were near insolvent.
"Just go on using the banking system as you normally do," Lim
said as reports came in of the first trickle of panicked withdrawals
because of South Korea's financial crisis.
His appeal was made after the finance ministry ordered eight
merchant banks to hand their foreign exchange dealings over to sound
commercial banks, prompting an exodus of deposits from banks into
safer papers.

The USAGOLD piece, the Veneroso report, J. Blanchard discussing the short position. The odd numbers at COMEX, the numbers at LBMA. There are several things which are arriving at a boiling point.

If nothing else, everybody is pointing to this 8000 ton covering as not being orderly. Something is going to give. I think it will be sooner rather than later.

Taking what I read and having a gut feeling.

Arigato, sensei...

Which would you rather have a thousand ounces of physical, beautiful, yello, gold. Or have in your head how to create a new computer operating system. I think you have hit the nail on the head for why gold is reacting the way it is with all the turmoil in the world. Years ago one had to wait hours days or even weeks to find out infromation. Uncertanty breeds fear. And fear is a strong emotion. Today at just the "click" of a button you can find out what is going on in the world. Just look at this forum. Some are pro, some are con, and we are all looking at the same facts. Some will make our minds to buy others to sell. Here today one could gather infromation from Australia to the United States. The people that would ahve placed their money into gold at the first whiff of problems in the mideast no take a wait and see attitude. They want to get as much infromation as possiable. And this infromation is available. You have a mind, read the stories and make it up.

November 25, 1997
Nippon Credit denies rumors of financial trouble

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - A senior official at Nippon Credit Trust Corp. on Tuesday denied it or its parent company, Nippon Credit Bank, was on the verge of collapse.

Talk swirled through financial markets Tuesday that a Japanese bank, possibly Nippon, was on the verge of failing after Monday's announcement that Yamaichi Securities Co. Ltd., Japan's fourth largest brokeage, would shut down. "There is no truth that Nippon Credit is in trouble at all," Takafumi Ishii, president of Nippon Credit Trust in New York, told
Reuters. "I have had good contact with ( the head office in ) Tokyo and heard nothing at all," Ishii said. "Everything as I know is
operating smoothly."

He said the bank has shown "marvelous" results in the first half of the fiscal year that began in April. "Our profit doubled more than anticipated," Ishii added.

Nippon Credit Trust is a subsidiary of Nippon Credit Bank.In a report on another bank, Wednesday's Nihon Keizai Shimbum newspaper reported that Tokuyo City Bank was weighed down by bad loans and mounting losses, and is conceding failure. The paper said negotiations were under way for
Tokuyo City to transfer operations to regional lenders.

Officials from Tokuyo City were not immediately available for comment.

Rumors also circulated that Fuji Bank Ltd. was having difficulties. Fuji Bank, a major lender to Yamaichi, said Sunday it did not see any financial problems from the closure of the brokerage house.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BROKERS-YAMAICHI-NIPP.html

November 25, 1997
Nippon Credit denies rumors of financial trouble

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - A senior official at Nippon Credit Trust Corp. on Tuesday denied it or its parent company, Nippon Credit Bank, was on the verge of collapse.

Talk swirled through financial markets Tuesday that a Japanese bank, possibly Nippon, was on the verge of failing after Monday's announcement that Yamaichi Securities Co. Ltd., Japan's fourth largest brokeage, would shut down. "There is no truth that Nippon Credit is in trouble at all," Takafumi Ishii, president of Nippon Credit Trust in New York, told
Reuters. "I have had good contact with ( the head office in ) Tokyo and heard nothing at all," Ishii said. "Everything as I know is
operating smoothly."

He said the bank has shown "marvelous" results in the first half of the fiscal year that began in April. "Our profit doubled more than anticipated," Ishii added.

Nippon Credit Trust is a subsidiary of Nippon Credit Bank.In a report on another bank, Wednesday's Nihon Keizai Shimbum newspaper reported that Tokuyo City Bank was weighed down by bad loans and mounting losses, and is conceding failure. The paper said negotiations were under way for
Tokuyo City to transfer operations to regional lenders.

Officials from Tokuyo City were not immediately available for comment.

Rumors also circulated that Fuji Bank Ltd. was having difficulties. Fuji Bank, a major lender to Yamaichi, said Sunday it did not see any financial problems from the closure of the brokerage house.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BROKERS-YAMAICHI-NIPP.html

November 25, 1997
Nippon Credit denies rumors of financial trouble

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - A senior official at Nippon Credit Trust Corp. on Tuesday denied it or its parent company, Nippon Credit Bank, was on the verge of collapse.

Talk swirled through financial markets Tuesday that a Japanese bank, possibly Nippon, was on the verge of failing after Monday's announcement that Yamaichi Securities Co. Ltd., Japan's fourth largest brokeage, would shut down. "There is no truth that Nippon Credit is in trouble at all," Takafumi Ishii, president of Nippon Credit Trust in New York, told
Reuters. "I have had good contact with ( the head office in ) Tokyo and heard nothing at all," Ishii said. "Everything as I know is
operating smoothly."

He said the bank has shown "marvelous" results in the first half of the fiscal year that began in April. "Our profit doubled more than anticipated," Ishii added.

Nippon Credit Trust is a subsidiary of Nippon Credit Bank.In a report on another bank, Wednesday's Nihon Keizai Shimbum newspaper reported that Tokuyo City Bank was weighed down by bad loans and mounting losses, and is conceding failure. The paper said negotiations were under way for
Tokuyo City to transfer operations to regional lenders.

Officials from Tokuyo City were not immediately available for comment.

Rumors also circulated that Fuji Bank Ltd. was having difficulties. Fuji Bank, a major lender to Yamaichi, said Sunday it did not see any financial problems from the closure of the brokerage house.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BROKERS-YAMAICHI-NIPP.html

I've been closely watching the short position on Barrick Gold stock ( ABX symbol ) as posted in the Toronto Globe & Mail every two weeks. ABX is the second largest short position on the TSE right after Sherritt International! ABX has about 11 million shares shorted and it been around 10 Million or so for a long time. That's 3 percent of the total ABX shares outstanding. I almost very sure that when the short position on ABX gets covered, THAT'S WHEN GOLD HAS BOTTOMED OUT!! It's a very simple indicator; by-passing all the stringent analysis out there already. Well, I'm very high on the gold price fixing theory. With a bubble head like Peter Munk, former US President George Bush as an advisor, former Canadaian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney as a director, all on Barricks team.....I'm sure the guys who have shorted ABX are in the know. I'll let you guys know when the ABX shorts have covered and see if I was right.

November 25, 1997
Reputed mobsters indicted in Wall Street scam

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Five reputed mobsters and six Wall Street stock brokers have been indicted in connection with an alleged scheme to cheat investors by inflating the price of a stock, federal prosecutors said Tuesday.

A 25-count indictment unsealed in Manhattan federal court names 19 people, including alleged members of the Genovese and Bonanno "crime families," brokers from the firm Meyers Pollock Robbins, and Gordon Hall, head of HealthTech International Inc. The stock of HealthTech has been suspended from trading by securities regulatory authorities.

None other than the inimitable A.G. feels the same as you two. Only he sees the sword having two edges. Both good and bad actions can be quickly propogated through the new medium. It is not "information" that is most important thing, but wisdom. A very informed and well internet connected fool can wreack havoc given the resources. People 100 years ago had less information but there were still those who did very well and those who did poorly. What was the distiguishing quotient? Wisdom and understanding, not information per se. Its what'cha do wit what'cha got, man.

November 25, 1997
Asia's crisis - glitch or gloom for world economy?

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Could the Asian financial turmoil erupt into a full-blown international economic crisis or is it a mere glitch on the road of the world economy?

If Japan, the world's second-biggest economy, manages to withstand the onslaught that has mauled many of its neighbors, a global bloodletting could be avoided, experts said."The key will be what happens in Japan," said Bill Cline, an economist at the Institute for International Finance.

With Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea and now Japan in the eye of an economic storm that keeps gathering strength, the question is which domino could be knocked over next. Other emerging markets have already suffered and few doubt western Europe can ignore the turmoil for much longer.

"They are preoccupied with European monetary union," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist of Florida-based Barnett Banks. "But they're not by any means immune to such crises."

Even though it is bogged down by sluggish growth at home, Japan has maintained its position as the region's powerhouse, backed by almost $230 billion in foreign exchange reserves -- four times the amount held by the United States -- and a lofty current account surplus.


In the worst case, mounting troubles in Japan could prompt cash-strapped banks to sell their U.S. Treasury bond holdings, yanking yields up and bringing the stock market down. According to Treasury data, Japan holds an estimated $320 billion in U.S. government securities, 9.5 percent of all privately held debt.

"There will be some selling of U.S. bonds by Japanese private institutions, but the Bank of Japan will try to minimize the effect by opening up the discount ( emergency loan ) window," said Sun Wong Sohn of Norwest Corp. in Minneapolis. "But if the financial and economic situation deteriorates further we might see more and more sales of U.S. securities."

Just as it did after the 1987 crash, the U.S. Federal Reserve may intervene by pumping liquidity into the system. But this could bring more problems in its wake. Eventually, the Fed would need to neutralize the inflow by raising interest rates -- hurting U.S. growth, worsening Asia's woes by capping U.S. imports and slowing down European economies.

Already, talk that the central bank's next move might be an easing rather than a tightening -- despite strong warning signs of overheating at home -- is making the rounds on Wall Street. Most analysts insist that a wholesale dumping of U.S. Treasuries by Japan's banks remains a distant prospect, and that even if this happened, the effect on interest rates would be muted. Other international investors would step up their purchases of U.S. bonds in a search of a safe haven.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/ASIA-GLOOM.html

According to David Christenson, whose work I posted a few weeks ago, indicates that corruption, insider trading, et al is one of the sure signs of the cloapse of a financial mania. The Japanese ( and Koreans ) have been in this now for quite a while and are now being completely destroyed in their confidence in institutions. We are starting this phase and will follow as our markets destruct and revelations of corruption ( at all levels and in all sectors ) become daily news items.

Tantalus Rex: Very astute observation about Barrick shorts. Would be even better if we know who was short -- ie your list of names.

All: Cry0 went down 2 dollars today. Has been dropping slowly for over a month now. This is bearish for gold/silver, despite the fact that gold is underpriced relative to the cry0 right now.

We need to be careful.

Perhaps RJ was right about the silver rally - another false one? Tomorrows silver behavior may give us a clue.

sharefin, all: The market uptrend beginning mid-day suggests to me that we will have a short term rally for a time -- at least tomorrow. Be careful if you are betting the market is going down.

After Japan's performance last night, the US markets behaved remarkably well. Not what you would expect for a short term bear market. It seems the SE Asia news has little effect right now.

by Steven Pollack
Due to the threat of Asian turmoil spilling over into U.S. markets led by the bankruptcy of Japanese securities giant Yamaichi, all rational logic and long term economic relationships have been suspended by joint actions taken by the SEC, the U.S. Treasury, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Gold will no longer be a hedge against financial turmoil announced the U.S. Government. Also, according to president Clinton, the U.S. equities markets will no longer respond to problems elsewhere. "As long as we project military strength and provide the world with all the reserve currency they ask for, we will be immune from everyone elses problems"

On Kitco, an investment discussion group, complaints by Puetz, tolerant1, and others were deafening as they cry foul over this alleged new paradigm. LGB, a contrarian, was heard saying "let the goldbug bastards fry, hahahahaha!"

Reality is as reality does.

Interesting interview on CNBC this morning. The author of the House of
Morgan was on. He stated the U.S. trade deficit as a result of the Asian
crisis would soar to between two and three hundred billion dollars a year. This will devastate U.S. GDP growth and corporate profits. A trade war and lower U.S. short rates to depress the dollar can't be far
behind. Look for an all out run on the U.S. dollar to develop in the first half of 1998. Higher gold prices will follow.

Investors are cool and do not sell in panic. Yamaichi Hari Kari? no problemo. Of course not many cool investors dumped Bre-X when DeGuzman did his own version of Yamaichi. Is BreX going to prove to be the new market paradigm?

The facts are these: The Dow sells at record high p.e. multiples, record
high price to book ratio, and record low dividend yeild. Gold is 60% off
its high. Further there is a 1500 ton a year supply deficit which will only grow larger with mine shutdowns and increased demand due to low prices. Add into the equation an eight thousand ton short position.
This amounts to 30% of the world's total monetary reserve and can't possibly be covered in an orderly fashion.

I tell you what. I'll put all my money in Gold and you put all yours
in U.S. stocks. Let's see who comes out ahead in the next 3 years.

Buy low and sell high!

The facts are these: The Dow sells at record high p.e. multiples, record
high price to book ratio, and record low dividend yeild. Gold is 60% off
its high. Further there is a 1500 ton a year supply deficit which will only grow larger with mine shutdowns and increased demand due to low prices. Add into the equation an eight thousand ton short position.
This amounts to 30% of the world's total monetary reserve and can't possibly be covered in an orderly fashion.

I tell you what. I'll put all my money in Gold and you put all yours
in U.S. stocks. Let's see who comes out ahead in the next 3 years.

Buy low and sell high!

Thanks for the updates! Especially enjoyed yours, Missing Link!

"May you live in interesting times". Perhaps I should rephrase. The RECENT tendancy for the metal to fall before holidays...and not just US holidays but Indian ones as well. I'm extremely interested in finding out why the markets are acting so queerly.

I know that many of you check out Yvan Auger's Elliot Wave/Gold web site. http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/index.html#home
Yvan and I live in the same town, and had coffee last weekend. He did not feel that we had a hard bottom in the XAU on Nov 14. He expected it to occur early this week in concert with the 10 week cycle. So far so good. Then he expects a violent upsurge to XAU 120 as a bear market rally. He ( like Prechter ) is long term bearish. He is also short Canadian banking stocks. Yvan does not follow Kitco and work independently around his work schedule. He is a very interesting and charming person.

Date: Tue Nov 25 1997 16:57
Allen ( USA ) ( Corruption a sign of the end of Manias ) ID#246224:

The view that I see, suggests that the Bureaucrats, and the Central Bankers, have the information. Such information has existed for a long time ( 1987 or maybe 1913 ) , now the banking wealth thing is coming apart, these wailers, and bureaucrats, are covering their ass. This is done by exposing the corruption that has existed a long time, and has been supported for a long time. This mania, and corruption, is part of the action required to keep this control, of the people in place.

The corruption has been known, and is now useful, to create the smoke and mirrors, to support the continuation of what was started, in 1913, the formation of the Corporation of the Federal Reserve Bank.

Blame those that were encouraged to corrupt, now the bankers and wall street have a finger to point, as to the reason for the crash. The wall street and banker "SUITS", will have more laws put in place to take futher freedoms away from the citizen. Great Game plan, it has worked in the past, it will work in the future.

There are those at this site that have praised the actions of Mr. Greenspan, and went further to state that Mr. Greenspan was a wonderful "leader" of the USofA. Interesting!

...Government "Encouragement" to Business is sometimes as much to be feared as government hostility.

Comex warehouse gold stocks SOARED today by 144,353 oz to 718,562 oz.

Comex warehouse silver stocks fell 35,605 oz to 126,585,821 oz.

BUT WAIT! COMEX ELIGIBLE STOCKS FELL 2,489 oz to 211,483 oz. What this means is that some one is depositing gold in the comex depositories just before first notice day but they are not writing contracts against it ( like who would at $300? duh ) . It is like some guy with a wad of $l bills covered with one $100 bill trying to show off and impress the girls! Don't believe this for one minute. As I stated in this morning's post this pattern has been happening before the first notice day several times the past year. The gold shows up just long enough to force enough longs to liquidate or roll over, then the gold disappears several weeks later, meanwhile more derivatives are written against more contracts, etc. etc. I am wondering if this isn't a big shell game thats getting harder and harder to hide. Today we had the 'battle of 300', anyone know when any OTC options expire? Could all of this be a orchastrated attempt to guarantee worthless expiration of both calls and puts with a strike price of 300? I don't know, but I am more than a little suspicious. Is this 'flash' gold leased from someone just long enough to force expiration? Could be. Could be dangerous, too!

Very soon now the game will be up. The numbers that are being juggled at the COMEX are hilarious. At a certain point, and we are close, this is going to explode in their faces.

Arden, I think that you contributions concerning the AVAILABLE stocks are the most important single factor that will affect gold spot of everything that I read here on Kitco. KEEP IT COMING!!

Has anyone out there got a URL where I can obtain near-live quotes for shares on the Toronto or Montreal Stock Exchanges? Thanks in advance. Nick

This is perhaps the most comprehensive and accurate overview of the HOUSE OF ROTHSCHILDs financial activities during the last 200 years. And undoubtedly, NO ONE heretofore has ever come closer - indeed DARED - to estimating the extent of the Rothschild wealth TODAY... and what it might be up to in its traditional business of trading Treasuries and GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus112297.html

Got to check those the Aussie Stocks,

In the land of OZ,they've had hard knocks.

Serves em right,so many say,

Welcome Normandy to Canada,EH!

http://www.canada-stockwatch.com/

Got to check those the Aussie Stocks,

In the land of OZ,they've had hard knocks.

Serves em right,so many say,

Welcome Normandy to Canada,EH!

http://www.canada-stockwatch.com/

http://canoe.quote.com/fq/canoe/industrygroup?group=tse_gold
will give you Canadian gold stock quotes.

http://www.canada-stockwatch.com/

arden: Reminds me of the game one might do with multiple credit cards -- keep adding credit cards to pay off the last one. Works great untill you can't get another card!

Is the silver situation the same, or is someone stashing a secret supply that will suddenly come out?

Tuesday, November 25, 1997
TSE 300 tumbles 1.4%

TORONTO, Nov 25 ( Reuters ) - Toronto stocks ended sharply lower on Tuesday after the Bank of Canada raised interest rates to prop up a battered Canadian dollar.

Analysts said continued weakness in gold markets also hurt heavyweight mining shares on Canada's biggest stock market.

The TSE 300 Composite Index fell 94.05 points to close at 6630.52 on volume of 128.9 million shares worth C$2.2 billion.

In a move aimed at boosting a sagging currency, the Bank of Canada raised its key bank rate 25 basis points to 4.0 percent. Canada's six major banks quickly followed with a rise in their prime lending rates.

POSSIBLE LOST DATA
Recent turmoil in Asian financial markets had pushed the currency down to 2-1/2 lows. The Canadian dollar closed stronger at around C$1.4163 ( US$0.7061 ) on Tuesday. "Although the volatility has not abated, the persistent weakness in the currency likely forced the Bank to move a little sooner than most analysts had expected," Bank of Montreal said in a report on Tuesday.

All but two of Toronto's 14 sectors ended lower. Gold and precious metals lost nearly 4.0 percent as gold markets still reeled from the threat of central bank sales.

Today's close of 26.03 is approaching the 26.198 high set on August 6th. Tomorrow could see a new high!

Where is George S. Cole. I would like to hear comments from him and Steve Peutz. Seems to me THEY love to kill the metals on fridays and especially before long holiday weekends, Remember the 4th of July. When crisis brews the kill is on. It is obvious, there is an MO. I think the crisis must be gettin pretty bad as the kill is intensifying as is the ridiculous commentsl. Asia was booming a few months ago. They say the US is booming and repeat it in a chant like manner. Confidence men the ship cant sink. Stayed tuned for the existing but non reported ongoing Eastern European and Latin American crisis. Not much left for the US Bubble.

Many thanks, Hep, for the site. BTW -- NDY will be double the price in a year. Hope ( Hep ) you get some. Cheers, mate.

Tuesday November 25, 5:20 pm Eastern Time

Japan bank jitters plague yen, U.S. mkts seen safe

By Alden Bentley

NEW YORK, Nov 25 ( Reuters ) - The dollar rose to a five-year high against the yen on Tuesday, buoyed by signs that a plague ravaging Japanese banks was spreading, traders said.

Fears of additional closures of Japanese financial institutions prodded investors to distance themselves from Japanese assets and seek the safe haven of U.S. Treasury bonds, they added.

After the credit ratings of a big Japanese trust bank were cut overnight, North American traders got a whiff of more bad news at midday. The Wednesday morning edition of Japanese newspaper Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that Tokuyo City Bank Ltd ( 8547.T ) , a small regional bank, was conceding failure.

The reports came a day after Japan's fourth-largest brokerage house, Yamaichi Securities Co Ltd, discontinued operations, fueling speculation that more financial institutions would be infected before the liquidity crisis runs its course.

Rumors had swirled through the currency and bond markets that at least one more big Japanese bank was poised to follow Yamaichi and Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Ltd, which last week also declared insolvency.

``There's a lot of rumors Japanese banks are going to fail, so that's holding up the market,'' said a bond trader at a primary dealership.

The 30-year Treasury bond reversed early losses, rising 3/8 of a point before settling 8/32 higher with a yield of 6.05 percent.

Analysts said there were few signs that cash-starved Japanese institutions were dumping Treasuries, as many had expected.

The yen tumbled overnight after Japan's Nikkei 225-stock index fell 854 points, or 5.11 percent, chalking up the Tokyo markets' first reaction to the closure of Yamaichi after a three-day weekend.

The dollar rose to 128 yen in overseas action, its highest since August 1992, before retreating in New York. It slumped to 126.40 there amid signs that Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party was moving closer to an agreement on a politically risky taxpayer bailout of Japan's ailing banks.

``Because the government is more openly discussing the idea of using public funds to assist the banking system, that suggests there could be some help on the way for the yen,'' said Bob Lynch, a currency strategist at Paribas Corp.

But the share selloff in Japan was not contagious, and European bourses ended mixed on Tuesday. The Dow Jones industrial stock average spent most of the day in positive territory, closing up 41 points at 7809, after succumbing to a brief spell of profit-taking prompted by the jitters over Asian financial markets.

Standard & Poors Corp overnight lowered to speculative grade the long-term counterparty rating of Yasuda Trust and Banking Co Ltd ( 8404.T ) . Yasuda is the fourth largest of Japan's seven trust banks.

The ratings agency cited growing concerns over the bank's weak financial position and a severe operating environment in Japan for the cut to BB-plus from BBB-minus.

Meanwhile, the yen's recovery was checked amid rumors, later denied, that Nippon Credit Bank Ltd ( 8304.T ) -- which not long ago underwent a major restructuring -- and possibly Fuji Bank Ltd ( 8317.T ) -- a major lender to Yamaichi Securities -- were about to close their doors.

``There's going to be more restructuring of Japan's banking industry,'' said Mark Gross, a vice president at IBCA, the European credit rating agency.

``A lot of these events are just accelerating the restructuring and clearly that is one of the weaker credits,'' he said, referring to Nippon Credit Bank.

Late Tuesday, a senior official at Nippon Credit Trust Corp in New York denied that its parent Nippon Credit Bank was on the verge of collapse. Fuji Bank also denied the rumors.

The dollar ricocheted back towards its high, standing at 127.30/40 yen in late trade, up from 126.75/85 at the open.

Thanks, elf. How are things in sunny N.C.?

Tuesday November 25, 6:23 pm Eastern Time

Japan hit by new financial failure

TOKYO, Nov 26 ( Reuters ) - Japan's financial system was hit by a new mini-failure on Wednesday when Tokuyo City Bank, a small regional bank, announced it was going out of business.

Though the scale of Tokuyo City Bank's collapse was small compared with the failure in the past month of three significant financial institutions, including giant Yamaichi Securities, the news added to gloom about Japan's economy.

Tokuyo City Bank said in a statement that in the first step of its shutdown it would transfer its assets to Sendai Bank and several other financial institutions.

Tokuyo City Bank and Sendai Bank are both based in northern Japan.

The statement said the recent rapid fall in its stock price has triggered active withdrawals of deposits at the bank, making it difficult to raise funds for its operations.

Tokuyo City Bank booked a pre-tax loss of over 400 million yen ( $3.14 million ) for the first fiscal half ended September 30. Tokuyo City Bank closed at 48 yen, down 12 yen in Tokyo trading on Tuesday.

The best indicator lately, KITCO problems, signals something big is gonna happen!

Mikeharry,

Bre-X WAS the market paradigm, we just didn't realize it at the time. ( note the skullduggery afoot in the Yamaichi collapse )

Mo in To

Mob Implicated in Wall St. Scam
Federal prosecutors say five reputed mobsters and six Wall
Street stock brokers have been indicted in connection with an
alleged scheme to cheat investors by inflating the price of a
stock. A 25-count indictment unsealed in Manhattan federal court
names 19 people, including alleged members of the Genovese and
Bonanno ``crime families,'' brokers from the firm Meyers Pollock
Robbins, and Gordon Hall, head of HealthTech International. The
stock of HealthTech has been suspended from trading by
securities regulatory authorities. HealthTech is a Nevada-based
health club operator.

Mob Implicated in Wall St. Scam
Federal prosecutors say five reputed mobsters and six Wall
Street stock brokers have been indicted in connection with an
alleged scheme to cheat investors by inflating the price of a
stock. A 25-count indictment unsealed in Manhattan federal court
names 19 people, including alleged members of the Genovese and
Bonanno ``crime families,'' brokers from the firm Meyers Pollock
Robbins, and Gordon Hall, head of HealthTech International. The
stock of HealthTech has been suspended from trading by
securities regulatory authorities. HealthTech is a Nevada-based
health club operator.

True to form the oft CNBC financial celebrity, Gene Inger, makes for interesting reading of what happened last week in all the markets... and what we might expect in the coming round -

Yamaichi's cessation of operations is the biggest failure in Japan since World War II. Japan's market is closed Monday, so we'll watch others for hints of any Tuesday impact. No doubt, based on the Nikkei futures Friday afternoon, Asian markets will again be turned into sushi, while those buying US stocks into strength might have to eat Crow instead of Turkey:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger112297.html

Nick, I'm gettin'a little confused. Are you Nick @ Canberra? Sharefin says he's Nick ( Aussie ) and lives in Canberra.

Please send your EMail address to WFKitco@AOL.COM. I'd be happy to share with you my thoughts about Clinton's ( not so secret ) Life.

final capitulation?

Nikkei up over 500~~~~~~~~Go 'Heat'...

Asia weeps, China struts at APEC summit -- but can it last?


VANCOUVER, Nov 25 ( AFP ) - Forget the crowing, backslapping
bonhomie of previous Pacific Rim summits, at which Asian leaders
took turns congratulating each other on their robust economies. This
year it was China's turn to strut.
And President Jiang Zemin grabbed every podium, doorstep, and
photo-op on offer to plug the prowess and promise of China's
fast-growing economy -- its successes all the more brilliant against
a regional backdrop of plunging currencies and collapsing banks.
His telegenic travelling spokesman, meanwhile, deftly fended off
queries on embarrassing topics such as human rights while keeping up
a hectic briefing schedule worthy of a spinmaster from the US State
Department.
"When you're on a winning streak, you get arrogant and start
lecturing," said Robert O'Quinn, an economist at the Heritage
Foundation, a conservative Washington think tank.
"China has many fundamental economic problems too, and
ultimately those catch up with you," he said in an interview.
O'Quinn estimates China's bad debts at 30 percent of gross
domestic product ( GDP ) , compared with about 15 percent of GDP for
Southeast Asia, and 10 percent for Japan at the peak of its 1980s
"bubble economy."
"It's not entirely obvious that China is running a current
account surplus, although that's what the official statistics say.
There may indeed be a small deficit," World Bank senior economist
Vikram Nehru said in a recent interview.
In addition, he said, China's huge apparent surplus of foreign
exchange reserves in its capital account should be offset against
its international liabilities, which "right now exceed 100 billion
dollars."

ANOTHER, JTF, GP, BIS ET AL: A few weeks ago GOLD-EAGLE received a study from someone in London. And although the author/analyst used an announced fictitious meeting to convey his message, all the numbers and charts are REAL AND AUTHENTIC DATA - which can be readily verified by anyone. In view of the very interesting Kitco discussion during the last few days about the inextricable relationship between GOLD, OIL & THE DOLLAR, I feel it would be productive and enlightening to again post the analysis made by Sheik Abu Bekr al-Rashid:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/gold_cost_oil.html

Crystall Ball
Sharefin, that is I, live in Cairns, Nth Queensland.
I ran under the handle of Nick@Aussie till registration.

Nick@C = Nick@Canberra, live in the Australian Capital Territory

Neither of us live in the same town,
Nor share the same clothes,

But we both like Normandy and Lihir,
And we both live in Australia.

Hope this clears up the confusion.

11/25/97 -- 7:45 PM Japanese regional bank to close

TOKYO ( AP ) - Japan's financial turmoil claimed another victim Wednesday as a small regional bank said it would shut down because of a rush of withdrawals and difficulty getting funds.

It was the fourth failure of a Japanese financial company this month.

Dec. gold down 1.40 @ 299.10~~~~~~~~~~GO HEAT!

Thanks for clearing things up, mate! You're in Cairns, and Nick@C is in Canberra. Gotta get out me atlas. ( grin thingy )

In 1929-33 there was no national monetary management. Indeed, until the Bank of Canada began to operate in 1935, there was no central bank, and no other agency which could try to manage the money supply and the exchange rate. R.B. Bennett inherited a system in which the chartered banks could borrow newly printed dominion notes from the Department of Finance, on request, and in which the foreign exchange rate was fixed by supply and demand.

When the Depression began, the Canadian dollar was theoretically convertible into gold at a fixed price, but the King government had quietly suspended that arrangement in the winter of 1928-9, and in autumn 1931 the Bennett government made the suspention public and permanent.

Bennett himself was anxious to manage the money supply and the exchange rate; his officials convinced him that this could best be done by creating a central bank - an innovation which almost all Canada's bankers strongly opposed.

Having come into existence, the bank worked to hold the Canadian dollar at par with the American; it also exerted a gentle pressure for monetary expansion. But this pressure began only after recovery had already got under way.

1939 WWII. Quebec's Prime Minister Maurice Duplessis had a pressing problem. His province was virtually out of funds. Ottawa now controlled Canada's credit, and access to foreign money markets was dispensed by the Bank of Canada. A shortage of money was not an especially good issue with which to go before the electorate, and Duplessis did not choose to use it.

( Union Nationale ) Duplessis told a class reunion in Trois-Rivieres, "that never, absolutely never, as long as I am Prime Minister and the electors renew their confidence in me, will I permit the assimilation of the Province of Quebec. Cooperation always; assimilation never!"

The Liberals had no difficulty in putting their message across. For one thing, they had a great deal of money, some of it raised from outside the province. When the smoke cleared on 25 October, Duplessis was back in opposition; his party took 39.2 per cent of the vote and fourteen seats, while the Liberals secured 54.2 per cent and seventy seats.

Caisses Populaires ( credit unions ) 1903 at Levis, the Desjardins caisse populaire movement had its beginning. Although the model was European, the import was quickly domesticated. 1930's, In some places, money virtually disappeared as a medium of exchange. It happened on the prairies, of course, but also elsewhere. An Ontario doctor reported in 1934 that previously prosperous farmers in his rural township could no longer pay for medical care.

In the winter of 1933-4 he had received "over twenty chickens, several ducks, geese, a turkey, potaties and wood on account," and at that he counted himself luckey. "Many country doctors" he observed, "have trouble collecting sufficient to purchase the bare necessities of life"

Private charity through traditional agencies such as churches and service clubs was grossly insufficient, and the state was not yet ready to take on the burden. In most cases, those who went on relief in the cities had to prove that the alternative was starvation.

China is behind much of the unravelling of these Asian economies and is positioning itself to soon dump it's dollar reserves bigtime in favour of gold. Almost methodically each one of these economies is brought down...starting with the most overblown...now china is parroting the rhetoric that has been coming out of the US for the last few years...they are mocking the dumb-ass yankees!
They don't give a rats arse if they take all the loans and throw them down the toilet...one quote was "...it's like dropping a stone in a deep lake...". To them what really matters is food, fuel and weapons, maybe precious metals. They see that the "free market" is riddled with corruption and is the weakness of their ideological enemies.
If you listen carefully to the press releases coming out of china you will see that they are playing this weakness to the full. Ringing the bell on Wall Street was the starters gun. Loaning money to Asia is not so stupid but expecting them to honour their loans would be really stupid, it's just how they will renege that is cunning. If you collapse and accept more loans but at the same time are stocking up on hard assets...why would they complain?
You see they don't see money like we see money, western markets have become a tool for them to wreak havoc. Look at the scandalous zinc, copper and tin plays...now wait for their coup d'etat in silver and gold. This is their best chance to totally destabilise western thinking and give communism a new life.

Any comments on the mine consolidations. Is this a trend we can expect to continue? What effect if any will this have on stock prices?


JOHANNESBURG - ( Dow Jones ) - Accelerating the consolidation in the gold-mining industry amid dwindling gold prices, South African mining giant Anglo American Corp. Tuesday announced a complex plan to create the world's largest gold-mining company by consolidating its mines and merging them with those of Minorco SA of Luxembourg and fellow South African group JCI Ltd.

The new company, to be called Anglogold Ltd., would boast annual gold production of 5.7 million ounces and reserves of 140 million ounces. Anglo American, a South African mining and industrial conglomerate that also controls Switzerland-based diamond cartel De Beers Centenary AG, said the new company will have an initial market capitalization of 17 billion rand ( $3.5 billion ) , rising to 20 billion rand once the JCI mines are acquired.

The megamerger comes one month after South African mining giants Gencor Ltd. ( GNCRY ) and Gold Fields of South Africa Ltd. ( GLDFY ) announced plans to merge their gold mines in a $3.6 billion stock deal that, at that time, would have created the largest gold producer in the world. Anglo American also holds a 25% stake in Gold Fields. In addition to the mergers, other companies such as Barrick Gold Corp. and Pegasus Gold Inc. have opted to shutter unprofitable mines as declining gold prices continue to make turning a profit extremely difficult.

News of the combination came as the price of gold continued to fall Tuesday. In New York, the December gold futures contract dropped $3.40 to settle at $300.50 an ounce. The price has fallen nearly 30% since its February 1996 peak. Some analysts forecast that gold will trade at an average of $300 an ounce in 1998, meaning that 50% of the world's gold mines will be unprofitable.

Anglo American's move marks a radical departure from its long-held tradition of maintaining a clear distinction between its role as a mining finance house and that of a mine operator, and underlines the industry's need for consolidation to remain profitable. For the merger to work - and for South Africa's gold industry to haul itself out of the crisis imposed by weakness in the metal's price - costs must fall quickly.

Bobby Godsell, head of Anglo's ( ANGLY ) gold and uranium division, estimated that cash costs at Anglogold's mines will drop to $260 per ounce from $280 per ounce when the Anglo group's mines are combined. That falls to $255 per ounce with the inclusion of the JCI operations.

"We should have cash costs below $250 an ounce within two years," he added, largely through cost-saving programs already underway at group mines.

The average price of South African gold production is estimated at between $320 and $330 per ounce.

The companies to be combined within Anglogold include Vaal Reefs Exploration & Mining Ltd. ( VAALY ) , East Rand Gold & Uranium Co. ( EASRY ) , Eastvaal Gold Holdings Ltd., Elandsrand Gold Mining Co. ( EGMLY ) , Free State Consolidated Gold Mines Ltd. ( FSCNY ) , Southvaal Holdings Ltd. ( STVHY ) and Western Deep Levels Ltd. ( WDEPY ) . Anglo said Vaal Reefs will be used as the vehicle to consolidate these mining companies and that Vaal Reefs will eventually change its name to Anglogold. By taking advantage of Vaal Reefs' existing structure, Anglogold will boast listings around the world - notably in New York, London and in Johannesburg.

Godsell also said Anglogold will be independent of Anglo American, its major shareholder.

Anglogold will buy 38% of the Sadiola mine in Mali, west Africa, and 70% of the Navachab mine in Namibia. It will also acquire 19% of Driefontein Consolidated Ltd. ( DRFNY ) , another major South African gold producer controlled by Gold Fields. Anglogold will pay for the bulk of its intended acquisitions by issuing shares.

As a major side-effect of the merger, Anglo and De Beers will swap their combined 26% stake in Britain's Lonrho PLC ( LNROY ) for JCI's 60% interest in gold miner H.J. Joel Ltd. and 37% of Western Areas Gold Mining Co.

Julian Ogilvie Thompson, Anglo's chairman, said the effective price Anglo and De Beers will receive for their controversial joint holding in Lonrho will be determined by taking a 30-day moving average of the British company's share price. In addition to passing on its interests in the H.J. Joel and Western Areas, JCI will also sell to Anglo a 3.0% stake in Anglo American Platinum Corp., the world's biggest platinum producer.

The mergers and formation of Anglogold will wrest the title of the world's biggest gold-producing company away from Goldco, the merger of gold mines currently owned by Gencor Ltd. and Gold Fields. Goldco will boast annual production of three million ounces and reserves of 100 million ounces.

Ogilvie Thompson played down suggestions of "one-upmanship" and insisted that the Anglogold proposal has been gestating for at least a year. Less than two weeks ago, Anglo successfully - and very publicly - blocked the use of Driefontein by Gencor and Gold Fields as the preferred vehicle for the conception of Goldco. This triggered alarm bells among analysts, who immediately suspected that Anglo had plans for Driefontein and that a megamerger of its own was looming.

Gencor Chairman Brian Gilbertson Tuesday said the formation of Goldco is still on schedule despite the blocking action by Anglo.

Anglo American said its merger process will take at least six months, and said the union of the Anglo-controlled mines will be the first step. The acquisition and consolidation of the JCI mines will follow and then the purchase of the gold operations owned by Minorco in the U.S. and Brazil.

Anglogold will issue new shares to stockholders in the other companies to fund most of the transactions. Payment ratios vary from 1.33 Anglogold shares for every 100 H.J. Joel shares to 47.35 Anglogold shares for every 100 Western Deep shares. Anglo's arrangement with JCI is the exception.

Despite the complexity of the proposal, analysts welcomed the news.

"I think it's wonderful," said an analyst at a local brokerage firm. "Perhaps it should have been done a long time ago."

Separately, Anglo American reported Tuesday net profit excluding extraordinary items rose to 3.86 billion rand in the first half from 2.97 billion rand a year earlier. Ogilvie Thompson said the company's diamond interests remained its core contributor in the first half, shrinking by 5% to 591 million rand from 622 million rand the year before. Improved growth came from mining finance, which chipped in 533 million rand, up 18% from 450 million rand.

Copyright ( c ) 1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

All Rights Reserved.


Transmitted: 11/25/97 15:39 ( L100ZWiS )

http://www.gravity.org

Interesting recent work on spinning superconductors in high frequency fields producing "anti-gravity" effects. On the order of 0.3 to 2.1% reduction in weight regardless of the distance from the apperatice.

WeighWatchers here we come!!!!

TUESDAY IN TOKYO: NIKKEI suffers SECOND worst fall in 1997 - DOWN 854 points, equivalent to a drop of 5.3% to 15842. This VIRTUALLY OBLITERATES ALL of the BOJ-RALLY in recent days. It bears repeating that ONLY the BOJ has the motive and financial clout to so dramatically reverse the Nikkeis KAMIKAZE dive!

Another startling announcement make in TOKYO this week, which may have important ramifications for the US Dollar, T-bonds, and Wall Street:

Yen demand to grow in Asia as dollar link ends - BOJ

TOKYO ( Reuters ) - Demand for the yen in the Asian region will naturally increase now that many Asian countries have stopped linking the value of their currencies to the U.S. dollar, Bank
of Japan ( BOJ ) executive director Takashi Anzai said on Monday

It would be only natural for currency transactions of the yen against local Asian currencies to increase after their departure from the dollar peg system, Anzai told an international symposium on European economic and monetary union and the yen.

He added: This applies to both the private and the public sector.

Germany, Nov 19 - The Bundesbank announces it will start using the Yen as part of its reserves to reduce its US Dollar risk.

ORACLE QUESTION ON Behalf of Far-East Public & Private Sectors: So why do we need to continue to hold US Treasuries - DENOMINATED IN US DOLLARS?!

Whereas the BOJ can ONLY momentarily deter the slide in Nikkei - as we have just seen, it will not resolve the underlying problems plaguing Japan and the rest of Asia. It is a ruse to confuse.

To appreciate the grim financial and economic conditions - becoming worse daily - one must examine the problems. This weekend an outstanding article was posted at GOLD-EAGLE, which describes in minute detail what is happening in Asia.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html

Whether it's China, or someone else, SOMEONE sure is "stepping" on Gold. Ohhhhhh .... when will it all end....??? When will all these prognostigations of squeezes, corners, etc....begin to show in the dad-blamed price?

Nick@C

At the risk of being redundant, the best place that I have found for Canadian quotes is is http://qs-alt.secapl.com/cgi-bin/qs . Try these ones t.bpt.a m.cbj o.parc ( Toronto,Montreal, Toronto OTC ) .

Crystal Ball
Here's a local site to have a look at.
Cairns is a beautiful tropical paradise.
http://www.cairns.aust.com/

Also this site to take away the blues of gold.
http://www.cairns.net.au/tidbits/
Check out the Darwin awards for a laugh.

g,daymate I'm wert's daughter -- I loved Cairns , worked at the Subway for awhile. The scenery is beautiful, just reviewed your webpage-good memories-- 8 inches of fresh beautiful snow here in Banff musy go Dad says this page is only for serious stuff like gold and silver

THERE IS MUCH LEFT TO HAPPEN IN FOREIGN MARKETS YET

With an estimated $200 billion in accumulated non-performing loans - five times the equity capital of all Chinese banks - China's banking system is essentially insolvent. At least 50% of China's state-owned companies are in the red, constituting a far larger chunk of the economy than failing companies representing any other Asian country.

WILL the smart Chinese again seek shelter in the currency, which has served them well for over 3,000 years: GOLD?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines112497.html

g,daymate I'm wert's daughter -- I loved Cairns , worked at the Subway for awhile. The scenery is beautiful, just reviewed your webpage-good memories-- 8 inches of fresh beautiful snow here in Banff musy go Dad says this page is only for serious stuff like gold and silver

John Disney - I'm sure that many, in addition to myself, are sitting on the edge of our chairs awaiting your sage analysis of the Anglogold merger. What a powerhouse this will be with the combined production, and a cash cost in the range of $250/ounce. ( OK John, I apologize for calling you a "crusty old reprobate" :- ) )

Kiwi - your previous post sent a chill down my back. A long time ago, I read an article titled "They Do Ring A Bell" ( yes John Disney, you know what I mean! ) . They article was a simple correlation between the Fed Discount Rate and the Dow Jones Industrials, simply put when the interest rate changed direction, so did the stock market. Rather obvious to all of us thirty years later! HOWEVER, your comment regarding 'ringing the bell on wall street by the Chinese leade' was awesome to me. For a long time I have stated on this site that China would not be a Japan and take the US $ it gets in trade and buy US bonds with them, no I thought China would at least buy some gold, which I understand that they have. But your "take" on the situation may just be absolutely correct IMHO. Indeed, "Ringing the bell in our face"!

Well Guys, this guy is having a difficult time understanding the logic of holding gold as a investment/protection against the control of the central bankers.

My logic has not held up to the facts as they are now unfolding. I had the belief that the world bankers could not control gold. I have been proven wrong. They in fact can, and are doing an outstanding job of control.

The events of japan and other asian countries, Bre-X and corruption on the local and national level proves that they are very much in control. The future, as I viewed it at a point of two ( 2 ) years ago, suggested the time was at hand and that the writing was on the wall. Post two years, and still no correction, and no flight by the investors into gold.

I was wrong, and continue to be wrong, I have no idea, as to what the direction will be now. Nor, have I any idea, what is a safe place for value. The control over the world finance is very effective. Hell when a person speaks to friends and others about what is happening, the looks are such that people believe you are a nut case. Yes, I have a lose, and yes, it sure is painful, but, such as it is, others are worse, and less able to understand why. Sooo, I have no more to offer this group, I am out of reasons to own gold, and gold mining shares, down has been a painful journey. Yet, life is a journey, not a destination. Take Care.

I just had a look at the moneyflow calculations from Worden Brothers into my list of gold stocks. This is a tick by tick calculation of accumulation/distribution that you or I could not possibly do.

Very Weak ABX CBJ HGMCY TVX PDG PGU HM

Neutral BMG HL RYO VAALY NEM FSCNY

Good DRFNY KLOFY

This is background data that can often indicate which stocks are ready to move.

Crystal Ball
Here's a local site to have a look at.
Cairns is a beautiful tropical paradise.
http://www.cairns.aust.com/

Also this site to take away the blues of gold.
http://www.cairns.net.au/tidbits/
Check out the Darwin awards for a laugh.

As gold is wandering below $300, I would sugest selling put options

on gold futures or on gold index. It is quite probable that we are

now at the bottom of the trading range 300 - 330 and we could stay

here for a while ( 2-4 weeks ) with a few small rallies. A little more

risk conservative approach would be to sell credit put spreads,

i.e. selling at the money puts and buying out of the money for

a credit.

Well, the crowd is quiet tonight...it's one thing to think about gold under $300 but it's quite another to see it...If it stays down next year then maybe there is a new paradigm! Called the New World Order...coming to a theater near you soon....I wonder what the Jews in Germany really thought in the 1920's...signs all around but very few got out...problem now is that there is no where to get out to...

Your post of 20:08 shows amazing insight. Your "take" could be right on the button. It is chilling. Thanks for sharing it.

6Pak, your 21:08 rings so true. I'm ready to throw the towel in myself. The CB's are doing a great job of holding gold down. One thing that intrigues me is that the U.S. CB apparently is not selling or loaning gold. Can you imagine what would happen if they did? Does anyone know why they are not. Do they need congressional approval or something?
Maybe AG is our friend after all.

Also, when does all the criteria have to be met in order to be part of the EMU? I thought it was January 1998. If so, maybe that will be the bottom. Any comments would be appreciated.

It's going down to 280-290, at least. The best news of the day was the notice of mining company consolidation. There are efficiencies of scale which will allow them to survive. There is a silver lining. George Soros' newest venture, APEX Silver ( SIL ) , began trading today. Do you think ole GS would enter the market now if he thought it was going to hell?

"Our annual economic growth rate is 9.8 percent," Jiang said in
a speech to business leaders alongside a summit of 18 Asia Pacific
Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) countries, "and we have managed to bring
inflation under effective control."
Chinese workers, enjoying the fruits of China's unique market
socialism, live "in happiness and contentment," he said, pledging to
double the national economy in the first decade of the new century.
Delivering exuberant speeches in smart European suits, Jiang,
regarded at home as a deadpan technocrat, looked every bit the
beaming international statesman and very incarnation of a modern
Chinese man.
For that, he stood out among fellow Asian leaders, whose
repeated assurances that economic problems besetting Thailand,
Indonesia, South Korea, and Japan were no cause for alarm had the
ring of wishful thinking.

You forgot that the West has more gold, capital, and most important, surplus food, than China. Do you think that the wealthy Red Army Generals will give up their US dollars willingly ? Oh, they may throw a few million into the fire but the hidden dollars in foreign accounts - does "Singapore" ring a bell ? - will remain invested in the centre of the world's economy - The West.

The Chinese are wise people and don't play games that they can not win. Perhaps that is why capitalism was allowed into the door - communism was capitalism for the Politbureau and poverty for the masses while capitalism is communism for everyone - think about it.

Cheers

Bob

ANOTHER: I did not wish to offend you by asking why -- this may be my Western way of thinking which is clearly different from yours -- Middle Eastern, I think?.

I think it is worthwhile to mention several things so that you will see that there are other points of view just as valid as yours.

First, you and most of the posters on this site are gold bugs - me too!. We are all interested in preserving or generating hard assets. Some of us may have only a few gold coins, so we must make or save money first before we can preserve it. This is why some of us want to ask why, instead of "just buy gold". Only those of us who already have enough money to buy gold can follow your advice to the letter.

Secondly, there are many knowledgable individuals on this site, all with qualities that make us collectively much stronger then each of us alone. We all learn together. I think you will admit that you learn -- I will freely admit that I have learned alot -- and I have had more than 5 years of advanced mathematics/physics in undergraduate and graduate school from one of the top universities in the US. I have learned the value of humility ( the hard way ) , and will eagerly learn from anyone -- regardless of their background - whether it is academic or not! Some of the most talented on this site I suspect have not have any formal training at all.

From some, the valuable lessons we learn are cultural -- such as from Jin - who is right in the middle of SE Asia, or informational such as from Donald -- who has a nose for financial news.

Thirdly: No matter how wealthy or poor we are -- we all need each other. We are all the same in the eyes of the Almighty. When this site is at its best, I sense a level of information exchange that makes me proud - that humans can overcome any difficulties -- even the ones that Jin or the South Koreans are going through. Me next? I know that gold alone will not protect me.

This site, and others like it will form the seeds for human cultural/economic renewal. There can be no culture without a strong economy for it to draw from, and perhaps we are all here to disseminate the necessary knowledge when others are ready to learn.

I think you underestimate yourself -- you clearly know how gold is bought and sold -- and you may have thoughts that allow us to find the answers to our questions -- all you have to do is offer the clues.

Bloomberg News reporting at 10pm EST spot gold at $299.25

"Truly, that which makes me believe there is no inhabitant on this sphere, is that it seems to me that no sensible being would be willing to live here."

"Well, then!" said Micromegas, "perhaps the beings that inhabit it do not possess good sense."

One alien to another, on approaching the Earth, in Voltaire's

Micromegas: A Philosophical History ( 1752 )

To maintain the present price, central banks must loan into the market the shortfall between supply and demand. To decrease the price further, they must loan even more. As mines close down, they will need to loan even more. Someday, central banks will reach the limit of the gold they will loan. Demand now exceeding supply will cause the GOLD price to rise.

Once Asia collapses totally, there will be a massive move out of U.S. dollars. Some money will move out to help pay for the massive losses in Asia, and other funds will be used to buy factories now selling at a fraction of pre-crash prices. All of Asia will be on sale and money will rush in.

... the only solution being a common world wide currency:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html

kiwi: I wonder how long it will be before Jiang has to face the music -- and ask for assistance from the IMF to cover their 300 billion plus debt.

China does have a real advantage over other similar countries. Right now, a moderate Chinese currency devaluation would not discourage eager investors who might refuse to look at other countries with higher cost labor. China also has - if not the cheapest - one of the cheapest labor markets in the world.

The earthquake ( Tsunami ) of a Chinese currency devaluation would hit the creditors much harder than it would hit China.

It is interesting but not surprising that the Far Eastern Financial blow up has helped the dollar and hurt Gold. The Dollar is now the final currency. The ans is very simple and that is when confidence in the US is rattled Gold will ultimately soar. Until that happens all the crisis makes the dollar the safe haven and expands the US Bubble even more. When something happens to lose confidence in our capitalists then bye bye and gold is GONE!!. We are gettin there. Clinton looked stressed at the APEC conference and DR ( feel ) Goodman on CNBC had a worried look that belied his verbage. These are good signs for the PMs. The more they want to put them down the closer to uncovering the scam. I want to be a witness to the future Wall St Nuremburg Trials re the Financial Holocaust.

Wert's daughter.
Hi, glad you enjoyed the url.
I've got another good one I'll dig up for you.
I live out at Freshwater.

item from china, privite gold sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/china_gold_1.html

Japan brokerage shares hit by hefty sales in Tokyo

TOKYO, Nov 26 ( Reuters ) - Shares in Japanese brokers ( 0#SEC.T ) came under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday morning, with sentiment undermined by the collapse of Yamaichi Securities Co Ltd ( 8602.T ) earlier this week, brokers said.

Second-tier brokerage Taiheiyo Securities Co Ltd ( 8618.T ) led all decliners in the sector, tumbling about 40.32 percent, or 25 yen, to 37 yen as of 0130 GMT. It fell by its daily limit on Tuesday.

Taihaiyo, in which Yamaichi has a stake of about 40 percent, has been hit hard despite the brokerage's assurances on Monday that it would not be hurt by Yamaichi's failure.

Yamaichi said on Monday it would close down following revelations of hidden debts of 260 billion yen partly created through improper ``tobashi'' or ``pitching'' deals, in which loss-making portfolios are shifted from client to client with a pledge that the paper losses will be covered.

The closure of Yamaichi, which was the smallest of Japan's ``Big Four'' brokerage, is casting a long shadow over shares in other brokerage houses by fanning market speculation that more brokerages may follow Yamaichi, brokers said.

Speculative selling also sent shares of Big Four brokers Daiwa Securities Co Ltd ( 8601.T ) and Nikko Securities Co Ltd 8603 T to their weakest levels this calendar year. By 0142 GMT, Daiwa had fallen 13.43 percent or 76 yen to 490, while Nikko had lost 8.85 percent or 34 yen to 350.

A spokesman for Daiwa Securities said he could not explain why the broker's shares were falling, adding that the brokerage had never been involved in any improper trading such as ``tobashi'' dealings, or held any off-balance sheet debt.

An official at Nikko Securities added: ``The market at the moment is pretty much driven by unfounded rumours, which we believe is very regrettable.''

Atsushi Nagano, head of the Finance Ministry's securities bureau, said that the ministry would check again with other securities houses to confirm that they had not done any tobashi deals.

Despite the gloom hanging over the industry as a whole, the nation's top broker Nomura Securities Co Ltd ( 8604.T ) has been able to buck the trend. Nomura's financial strength has enabled it to weather harsh administrative penalties imposed by the Finance Ministry for its suspected role in a high-profile racketeer payoff scandal.

Nikko Securities and Daiwa Securities are also set to face similar penalties in coming months due to their suspected involvement in the same racketeer payoff scandal, which has also ensnared major Japanese commercial bank Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank Ltd ( 8311.T ) .

``Nomura's shares were bought today on the expectation that it would benefit most by Yamaichi's closure,'' said an industry official. ``It is also being supported by a belief that funds will flow into shares of firms with higher credit ratings.''

Nomura's shares rose 1.39 percent or 20 yen to 1,460 by Tokyo midday, shrugging off the decline in the sector as a whole.

FWIW -- I think what the 'common' investor is looking for in gold, is a price. If I mention gold and its' ridiculous price to people I get one of two reactions. One is, yeah, I've been watching it and I'm waiting for $250. The other is, huh?

I don't know why $250 is a 'better' price than say, $280 or even $200/ oz. for that matter. The concept of supply and demand seems to be missing here. That is NOT to say the market isn't determining the price of gold, just that most people have no idea as to the fundamentals of its' cost of production and supply/demand factors. Thus, we seem to be getting these 'prices' thrown at us as if they're being pulled out of a hat filled with pieces of paper with numbers written on them. Todays number will be... 287. Why not?

If everybody is selling, then who is buying?

Well I see the DOW didn't crash, Japan is up, Gold took it's usual beating testing the all important $300 level, confounding conventional "Kitco" views that financial crises will make it rise, and one of the most intelligent posters on the site ( Hepcat/Uris ) is being attacked by Kiwi, another censor loving site Nazi, who apparently would prefer a site of exclusively monolithic, narrow, myopic, ( and always wrong ) views. All's well and usual at Kitco. Go Silver!

Gold is still within it's downward channel, albeit right at the bottom. This channel has contained gold price movements for the last year. If gold were to break through the channel bottom, this would signify something major has changed. Perhaps this would be the final catharsis everyone predicts. Watch the next few days closely.

Despite the tension as we watch the action, the most likely action in the near term would be for gold to rally back off the channel bottom. Is anything really different today than it has been all year?

BTW, palladium did break through the bottom of the channel that has supported its price moves upwards all year. Just barely, but enough to suggest its rally may have run its course, at least in the near term. If this is true, there's a lot of room below.

6-pak - Consider money you have lost as sunk cost. Consider it gone, even if you haven't sold the stocks yet. Forget it. This will clear your head. Now pretend you are starting all over again. Look at gold. What a hell of an opportunity. Is it time to jump in, perhaps. If not, the time is not too far off. If you decide you don't like the stocks you are in, sell them! Hold the cash in your hands. Things definitely are different now. Mines are closing, mines are consolidating. Investment by big, knowledgable players is evident. Pick your targets carefully. Make sure they will be survivors. Watch the trends closely. You lave learned a lot. You have the council of giants. You are blessed. It might be one month, it might be 6 months. When life serves you lemons, make lemonade. Don't be a statistic, a casualty of the grinding bear, finally losing faith as the bottom approaches. Think clearly, move carefully, listen closely. You hold one of the best investments opportunities of all time in your hands ... and have all the tools at hand to be a big winner.

The Asians in general and the chinese in particular are much closer to the barter system and much less reliant on a paper currency system than the west. All that this crisis will do is reinforce a deep distrust in such a system. As such they are much better equipped to survive through such times whereas people in the west would be devastated if they had to give up cars, luxuries, regular heat and food supplies.
If they were seeking to undermine the western capitalistic system this is precisely how it would be played out to their maximum advantage, hell they don't even have the same calendar as us, so year 2000 is entirely a bogeyman of our own making....like the imaginary monetary system we believe in. For them a total global depression would bring the playing field much closer to level, the west has so much more to lose, they have very little to lose. The gap of wealth caused by capitalism will bring it's own demise.
You see the gold in china is held in the hands of the little people so they have the power...and the government needs guns to control them. In the west most of the gold is held by the "big" people so they have the power and are corrupted by it. Sadly the "big" people influences the government that has the guns and all the little people have is their voices and a vote to change the channel every few years when the don't like what they hear.

Perhaps the best system will be a combination of capitalism and communism where there is good incentive for an individual to strive to better himself accompanied with a mechanism for evenly distributing the communal wealth, that which couldn't be obtained without the collective.
I don't see how the central banks holding gold is a good thing for society. What they should do instead of selling it, it is after all the peoples gold they are selling, is divide it up evenly amongst the people...and let them decide what to do with it.
Gold is a ruler by which we measure wealth and as long as there isn't a destablising influence eg technology for creating infinite amounts, it will always serve as a reliable fixed coordinate. So anybody who needs to be in the monetary system needs to have a ruler or else they won't be counting the same numbers as anybody else. But why does a bigger bank need a bigger ruler? Makes no sense, the little street peddler has the same use for a unit of measure as the biggest banker. One is always one.
Everybody needs a little, nobody needs a lot...if they are going give up our gold in such a public manner they should at least give it up to the people.

I feel that the level of selling pressure on gold,
Is proportional to the level of pressure,
Required to hold the equity markets up.

There is a recognizable fulcrum
Around which, the price of gold and equities, fluctuate.
One can see that, the greatest fear days on the Dow,
Are the days, that gold is pressured down the hardest.

I doubt that gold will be allowed to rise,
Till after the fear, is purged out of the markets.
The harder they pressure gold down,
Is equivalent to the forces neccessary,
To keep the markets up.

This brings me to believe that,
The day, that they send gold down, the hardest,
Will signal, that the day, that they can't support equities,
Is at hand.

The formula would look somewhat like:
The harder they have to push gold down,
= the tougher the job, that they have to support equities.

Capitulation in one will mean the release of the other.
When they have driven gold down, to far, will be the sign
That they can hold the markets back, no more.

When the markets have tanked,
Signaling that they can no longer hold equities up,
It will signal that they can no longer hold gold down.
And it will rise like the Phoenix.
IMHO

Gold now down below 300 in Aust and Hong Kong. Can anyone post a URL with a 20 year or so gold price chart to see how this looks over time.

SPEED: Can you tell on which exchange SIL is trading ?

LGB
The Nikkei was up 510 shortly after opening,
And sold off all morning.
After lunch we will see where it will end.
So far I would say that it has fallen just under 400pts for the morning.
Futures stimulation prior to opening is like Globex.
On Avid they refer to Globex as "liars poker"

I'm sure you will enjoy these titbits from avid.
As they confirm what you are always saying.

Avid chatter:
-------------------------------------------------
-the problem with prepartion for the "collapse" is that the very investments being touted as "saving" you have been the ones that have collapsed....gold, puts, shorts...
-many have perhaps collapsed from trying to save themselves from the collapse.....
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Apex Silver trades on American Stock exchange. News release with details can be found here:

http://www.newswire.ca/releases/November1997/25/c5917.html

Neophyte & 6Pak :
Now is no time to cut and run, unless you think gold is going to $200 tomorrow. You have paid the cover charge - you may as well hang around for the party.
The fact that there is nothing else you would move into is noteworthy dont you think? We are all in uncharted waters now.

These comments are made by a very neutral and stolid person.
IMHO
Comments on 24 November for the Market on 25 November 1997
http://www.nirv.com/communit/comment.htm
The market finally caught on to one of the themes we have been discussing for several weeks - the Asian crisis. Quite a few people, including some whose opinion I respect very much, are making light of this crisis. I think it is very serious - at least for the stock market. The whole process of competitive devaluations and restriction of trade led to the Great Depression following another Great Expansion and Overvaluation. We have been witnessing competitive devaluations for some time now and the US, in spite of its prosperity, has now weighed in against the expansion of free trade. I learned long ago that just because it happened before does not mean it will happen again. However, just because we probably won't get a depression does not mean there will not be trouble. I previously said that the Asian crisis was a problem for two reasons: 1 ) it is deflationary, and 2 ) it will cause a shock to Japan's fragile financial structure. While we might economically ignore, say, Thailand, we cannot ignore Japan. ( Also, remember another of our long term themes is that our bonds held by the Japanese will come back to haunt the dollar and interest rates. ) The economic might of the US compared with anyone is ( as much as I hate the word, comes from having two teenagers ) awesome - we can withstand a lot. However, the stock market is overvalued and needs the best of all possible worlds to continue upwards. At a minimum, it will have to adjust to a world without Asian Tigers. The decline in the stock market today was attributed to a financial failure in Japan. What is happening is that the market is trying to determine if and when the best of all possible worlds can reappear. In the short term, the market is headed down, however, in the medium term, my three possibilities all still remain. In the short term, there is also risk of a breakdown. If you are trading from the long side, think about the risk you want to take and take appropriate measures. Forecasting a breakdown is impossible, however, any time the cycles are down, the market is at risk. When I gave my "go to cash" signal before the recent melt down, it was because 5 waves up had completed and cycles were down - too much risk. The meltdown did not have to happen then, it just did. Now is a smaller window, but one having the same characteristics as before.

Hi Nick! Loved the story about the doofus in the lawn chair @ 11000 feet.
I'll enjoy the rest of the treasures a little at a time. Seems like Cairns is a bloody paradise from checking out the other site. I'm jealous! As to your theory about the manipulating b*stards shoving gold down to distract people from falling shares, Why did they waste all that ammo pushing gold down $3.50, if the DJIA was not down, but up 41 today?
Hi DJ! Your response to 6-pak showed much wisdom and compassion. Reminds me of something I learned in my early commod trading days: Start each day anew. Don't carry baggage about how much you're up or down, but rather analyze the situation objectively as if you're considering a new trade; assess the up and downside risk/potential, and proceed from there.

Just type it in on yahoo quotes.

Highrise well said.
Perhaps this is what true deflation is like..there is nowhere to run nowhere to hide, everything is heading south. Gold is the leading indicator it's just that in the long run it will head south slower thus appreciating in real terms better than anything else.
Donald where's that DOW/Gold ratio, we need the morale booster.
Lurky is down on all us cause his socks are in tank too. God I'm glad I'm not in Asian sox, damn cheap things!

Date: Fri Nov 21 1997 09:44

Spud Master ( A Public Service announcement & reminder to EB re. sub $300 gold )

ID#273112:

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 10:42

 ( Gold.Rally.Schmold.Rally.Plunge.Team.Party. ) ID#2082:

The Bears await this 'new' rally with open arms. It is ONLY a

chance to drive it to the dirt once again. It still must slip

under 300[.]

Date: Fri Nov 21 1997 09:07

Mooney* ( @Messenger ) ID#348169:

From EB to D.A. -

"Oh yeah....

Since I can't post tell D.A. that I will bet him a shiny little tenth oz

eagle that gold at 299 before 308. That is halfway point right now.

Crystal Ball - tsk, tsk.........

Date: Fri Nov 21 1997 09:57

Crystal Ball ( @Spud and Carl ) ID#287367:

Spud- Thanks for the Public Service Announcement {:-D}

My cool Potato[e] Friend.......

Date: Fri Nov 21 1997 11:12

EB ( Thanks.Spud ) ID#22956:

Thanks for reposting some of my jewels...I had no idea that I was so funny, har, har. I

guess the bears can't 'own' ALL Fridays. I think this current rally is due to silvers'

performance. It will be short lived...oh yes it will. It is actually good to see gold rally

here because the risk/reward ratio was not very appealing to me. I trust this little rally

will make it much more TASTY!! YUM, YUM!!! ;- )

more...........................

Date: Fri Nov 21 1997 14:54

EB ( The Little Train that Could.....I know you can... ) ID#22956:

[ As for the Gold train heading toward the cliff ( btw, that doppler joke was quite

hilarious ) .....I must agree...it will drop off that cliff...to the bottom finally??.....I don't

know. Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock. And if it closes up today then we will look to the next

day, and then the next...etc........until it reaches that abyss you talk about...oh my.

away...to let the train push on....I know you can...I know you can...I know you can

stokingthefire...chuga! ]

Clever play on words, mate! Nikkei Bull Run- So you think the rally is gonna get stuck like a fly in Manassas?

Selby
Monthly gold chart back to 1977.
Last two days not updated.
Due to living downunder.
RSI indicator shown.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Gldca300.gif

Japan bolted up after lunch to +340
Now coming off at +283
Hong Kong +268
Malasia down -3.2%

Kiwi: Your point about China being closer to the barter system is well taken - that does make them less vulnerable to a Western currency crisis.

China is also still agriculturally based. Also, they do not need as much gold per capita as we would, for the same degree of security. I have known Chinese personally for over 25 years, and they can bargain circles around the average American. I remember going to a used car dealer and see one wear out three salesmen before buying a car. They also understand the value of gold, having been through war and hardship more frequently than us Westerners. Lastly, the strength of the Communist Chinese system is that it allows long-term planning -- something that is almost impossible for democratic governments -- except in times of crisis. Of course this can be unwise, as it was in Russia. Thus they have little to lose from a currency crisis, since their cost of labor is so much lower than the industrialized world, since the average Chinese has almost nothing anyway, and since many can barter without using the official currency at all. That 300 billion or so unrecoverable SOEs debt and the US treasuries they own could have a significant impact on the industrialized world -- even without the goods Tsunami.

sharefin:

off topic.
I remember many happy lazy days in Port Douglas, Cairns, and Daintree and of course Dunk Island. The beaches were numberous and crystalline. The people were warm and friendly. Of all the joys, the people were the best.

Canberra

Wide, big, clean, brisk. Excellant for a capital, buses great, sites great. The mammoth lake geyser, the exquisite layout, and of course the wonderful people from the university ( where I stayed warm and snug in a vacanted dormitory room ) to the High Court ( where I spent time in friendly discussions with the tour guides ) .

If the gods be pleased, I will soon go back to that wonderful feeling - Australia.

I see this whole phase as a buying oportunity. Cash on hand, physical, depressed mining shares and e-gold.

This is a fabulous time to be buying. Once things get underway it is going to get wild. This market is going to take off like a wasp on acid. COMEX will be a riot to watch starting tomorrow.

Sharefin: Thanks for the gold chart.

Miami 103
Lakers 86
GO GOLD!

Gold Futures Slide on Concern
About Selling by Central Bank

An INTERACTIVE JOURNAL News Roundup

Gold futures fell Tuesday on the Comex division of the New York
Mercantile Exchange and were poised to drop below $300 an ounce for
the first time in 12 1/2 years after a key central banker suggested the new
European central bank is unlikely to hold large stocks of gold.

Gold fell after Eddie George, governor of the Bank of England, said he
would be "very surprised" if the European Union's planned central bank
kept large amounts of gold in its strategic reserves. His comments echoed
recent sentiment of other European banking officials. The central bank will
conduct monetary policy for the single European currency, scheduled to
debut in 1999.

Gold has been under pressure for months on
speculation that Switzerland, Germany and
other nations will follow Australia's lead from
earlier this year and sell big parts of their gold
reserves.

Gold traditionally has been held as a hedge against economic instability
because it tends to hold its value. But it is being increasingly frowned upon
in the markets lately as it hasn't provided strong financial returns as have
stocks and bonds. Furthermore, it is expensive to store.

Many Asian nations have been selling parts of their reserves during the
recent financial instability, Smith Barney analyst David Rinehimer said.
"Rather than buying gold as a safe haven, they've been getting rid of it,"
Mr. Rinehimer said. "All this adds to the increasing speculation and
nervousness about the diminishing role gold might have for large European
holders."

Gold for December delivery settled down $2.70 to $301.20 an ounce,
after falling to $300 an ounce earlier in the day.

Silver also retreated, even as inventories remained near 12-year lows on
strong demand for its use in film and jewelry. The recent rally is likely to
slash demand from price-sensitive Indian buyers, who along with the
Japanese, are the largest consumers of the metal in the world, Mr.
Rinehimer said. December silver fell 15.40 cents to $5.22 an ounce.

In other commodity markets:

ORANGE JUICE: Futures fell sharply as long-term weather forecasts
appeared to dispel chances of crop-damaging frost hitting what otherwise
is expected to be a bumper Florida crop. The government last month
predicted Florida orange producers will bring in 254 million 90-pound
boxes, up 12% from last year's 226 million boxes. The figure will add to
ample world supplies. The U.S. Department of Agricultur

sharefin: Your 22:39 says it all. The fear that our markets might fall need not be directed just at the US markets, but at other markets -- wherever the fear is greatest. The response is that gold will fall. And the farther it drops, the higher it will rise on the other side after the crisis is over. IMHO, it is already well below the equilibrium price at $300/oz US.

6 Pak and Neophyte throw in the towel. I have never seen this site so gloomy. Now let the bull run.
Question: With all this paper-stock-market accumulated wealth since 1982, couldn't a slight return to "gold as insurance", a miniscule shift of the paper portfolio into hard assets ( say 1% ) wake up the hibernating gold bear?

Date: Wed Nov 5 97 10:25
Art Levine
We are selling at 15.00 above spot gold pure gold "Mounties" Printed on coin $310.00 USD Guranteed by RCM to Jan 1 2000" 30,000 mintage If you want to hold gold and are concerned about a good buy price this is the logical solution call me quickly at 1 800 949 XXXX ext XXXX

OUCH! If the loss had to come I guess it should come from you. It was a spanking. Kinda like the one the Kings gave to the Knicks...ugh.

Ted - go GOLD!!! Down, down, down........ ;- )

away



Stop bad-mouthing gold or I'll ask Bart ta throw yer sorry ass off this site!!......lakers suk~~~~~~~~~~

Ted - Did Dec gold close at $300.50 or $301.20 ?
EB - Congratulations on your shrewd analysis of the situation. By the way, did you get your "Tick Tock Tick Tock" from Hannibal Lecter?
Nick ( Sharefin ) - Yes, thank you for the monthly gold chart! I have been checking out RSIs and stochastics on weekly charts of XAU, ABX, and a few gold mutual funds, and they are all incredibly "oversold". How much longer can this drubbing go on?

...FWIW,Xau on its way to make a 65 bounce,
timeframe second week of December coinciding
with a top in the stocks and a bottom of the
interest rates.Happy trading..: ) Good night

C.U.P.W ( Canadian postal workers ( ?? ) Union ) SUK~~~~~~~~go team gold!

About a year ago I asked why not $250 gold and was told by the gurus that I should not worry about such a thing. I was and still am curious as to the bottom. Around the beginning of Sept I suggested that gold would over shoot its average cost of 270-275 and go to 250. I got the usual Kitco reaction to that view. Now we are below the current estimated average cost of production of $317 and heading toward the end of the trail be it $250 or $200 or ( the lowest estimate I've seen ) $147. Whatever it turns out to be the bottom can not be too far off in time or price. Now the highest cost producers are closing and as I have said before nobody is buying the stuff. More realistically there is more to be sold than bought and the big psychological barrier of $300 is being tested. Now is not the time to be bailing now is a time to be preparing for the start of the return of gold's rise. This may become the most important gold related topic once the fascination with the Asian situation recedes and the price fails to rise. Clearly no one here could see the 300 price in Nov '96. Can anyone see the beginning of the rise? I doubt it. So being on the horse is the only place to be ( if you think it will ever run again ) if you can't tell when it is going to run again. Particularly if you are all ready on it.