300.50 dude....WSJ ain't totally on the ball sometimes~~~~nite all!!

I am begining to believe that the plunge in the gold price, in spite of the world's financial crises is signaling a severe DFEFLATION ahead. We have gone through a 1929 type crash in the secondary gold stocks and very soon complete the same for the XAU type blue chips. We are not down just 60% from the XAU high but considering the DOW rise within the last 3 years we have collapsed to what I believe is within some % of the bottom of an abyss.

I guess we should start SERIOUSLY discussing what one should do to prepare for $100-$180 gold price. We should not be blind to this possibility and STOP talking only about that gold is ready to explode. Let's look at reality and learn from what is taking place around us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I agree with most of you about CBs gold manipulations , however, may be, just maybe gold is lot smarter than we give it a credit for. It typically looks beyond 6-12 months and has a great "nose" for what may be on the horizon.

I also believe that eventually , in the case of severe deflation, the gold price will rise from the bottom and surge forward since severe inflation or perhaps hyperinflation may follow deflation. This may be few years hence.
In the interim lets look at the implications of what severe deflation may mean to our investment strategies since .

Last thought. If severe deflation is in the cards and it may arrive rather fast, I think that being in cash is the only way to go and wait for the bottom and then, and only then switch to gold. Once again, it is possible that we may be talking about a lot lower gold prices than today's. Do not forget that there is nothing any government can do about deflation since it is driven by the collective state of investors' psychology.
SO let's get serious and look at the other, perhaps very likely possibility.

ANY COMMENTS????

Ted - btw, the Canadian Dollar is setting itself up for a NICE rally. The 14 day ADX is a good indicator to watch and it soooooon says buy. There is also divergence with RSI ( 14day ) . You know what to do, EH?

away...to the Mounties



Allen ( USA ) : So your interests overlap mine in another area! I have read Podkletnov's papers carefully, and I think his work is well done. His papers are well enough written to eventually be accepted by the mainstream Physics community. This is not fringe physics. If this work can be duplicated, this will revolutionize our understanding of gravity. I wish I had time or resources to do this myself.

My personal opinion is that the results are genuine, given how the discovery apparently unfolded. There is other experimental data which supports Podkletnov's work, but it is either less professionally presented, or classified -- with hints only in the open literature. Eg, the Brown-Biefield effect.

I think it is exhilarating to see work such as this come out, as the implications to the human race are staggering, if it bears fruit.

It is always good to keep in touch with progress -- we tend to get too wrapped up in accumulating or preserving assets on this site. My dream is eventually to be able to retire and duplicate experiments such as this.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

This Chart is so UGLY it requires Safety glasses for viewing!

JTF
It took me awhile to see it this way.
Initially I thought that gold would rise prior to a crash,
As people sought a safe haven.
Then I realised that they had to support their equities and bonds, ( paper )
While they depressed gold. ( physical )

I am not sure if this is what is signaling EB's short gold strategy.
But I have thought that he recognised this pressure point.
And deduced that gold would have to go down a long way,
As they fought tooth and nail to hold up their paper assets.

We can already start to add up the costs of the paper failures so far.
The last two failures in Japan cost over $200 billion.
Globally we probably are in excess of $500 billion.
There is so much more paper to be burnt.
$5 to $50 trillion is my guess.

If the cost of the losses of the paper assets,
Has to be paid out of physical assets.
Then we have a long way to go.

The explossive exit out the other side of the fulcrum,
Will be the one to truly astound.
I think this is what Another sees.

Maybe EB will enlighten us to his rational.
He always calls the moves but his logic has been well hidden.
Another could also alude to more on this subject, I'm sure.
IMHO???

Oh My!

away...to the Cape

gettineven ( grinningandgunningthingy )

bart, don't hold me back!!

steady ( Gold indicating DEFLATION- $100-$180 gold price possible ) ...

Call it what you like, but being Long now is like
standing on the railroad tracks, and watching a train
approach, with a full head of steam.
..... Stand Aside

I imagine it would be hard to find a reg poster on this site that hasn't taken it in the chops on PM investments, I know I'm down big on gold. I have diversified and am up significantly in pigs & banks. So I'm OK. The system of fiat will wind down and then a store of value will have to be found. With that fact clear to the countries that do the trading - gold will be back. The Fed and other CBs are controlling markets now and they will into the future until inflation kicks in - and then their problem of manipulation will become outrageously more difficult. Gold's day will come - you can't forget to be patient. Good luck!

PS: If gold went up $50 tommorow, would you sell? Probably not, you would likely hold as insurance against rough times. Anyhow, I'm not a seller at $350/oz.

kiwi

"Perhaps the best system will be a combination of capitalism and communism where there is good incentive for an individual to strive to better himself accompanied with a mechanism for evenly distributing the communal wealth, that which couldn't be obtained without the collective."

Your statement is astonishing to me. In a bar in Wellington, 1982 A European gentleman asked if he could join me. He turned out to be a Professor in Geology ( specialising in vulcanology ) from a Hungarian University visiting NZ on a very special permission from his Communist Government. He said the same thing, provided there are the capitalist freedoms and traditions of civil rights.

Thank you for conjuring the memory

kiwi

"Perhaps the best system will be a combination of capitalism and communism where there is good incentive for an individual to strive to better himself accompanied with a mechanism for evenly distributing the communal wealth, that which couldn't be obtained without the collective."

Your statement is astonishing to me. In a bar in Wellington, 1982 A European gentleman asked if he could join me. He turned out to be a Professor in Geology ( specialising in vulcanology ) from a Hungarian University visiting NZ on a very special permission from his Communist Government. He said the same thing, provided there are the capitalist freedoms and traditions of civil rights.

Thank you for conjuring the memory

Steady: I think your point is a valid one. Can we predict how low gold can go? At what point will the price of gold in dollars fail to drop any more? I will start the ball rolling.

There are several points that relate to this:

1 ) In many currencies, the price of gold is rising -- only dollar linked currencies are showing this pattern.

2 ) As gold drops in price, due to central bank loan activity, or ? it will become harder and harder for the "powers that be" to push the price of gold down. Currently, I think only 25% of all the central bank gold is being loaned out, so there is considerable leeway left. But, gold loans can only keeo gold down temporarily.

3 ) Is the price of gold deflating, so that the equilibrium price is actually dropping? I don't think so because it should then be dropping in all currencies.

3 ) Will western central banks sell gold to keep this process going? Will gold sales end in early 1998 because the ECU/EMU "window" is past?

I have only one clear conclusion on all of this, and that is that gold prices are already rising in non-US dollar based currencies. The dollar is strong right now because there is market turmoil elsewhere, and as sharefin has said, gold prices in dollars are dropping because of the market fear factor, or because of the need to keep the dollar strong until the ECU/EMU deadline.

Because of all the heavyweights that can buy and sell gold, the only approach that will work reliably is the "wait and see" attitude -- which is amost impossible for a dyed in the wool gold bug to do. All we can do is wait see - for people like RJ or the Oldman to say "buy".

Steady: I think your point is a valid one. Can we predict how low gold can go? At what point will the price of gold in dollars fail to drop any more? I will start the ball rolling.

There are several points that relate to this:

1 ) In many currencies, the price of gold is rising -- only dollar linked currencies are showing this pattern.

2 ) As gold drops in price, due to central bank loan activity, or ? it will become harder and harder for the "powers that be" to push the price of gold down. Currently, I think only 25% of all the central bank gold is being loaned out, so there is considerable leeway left. But, gold loans can only keeo gold down temporarily.

3 ) Is the price of gold deflating, so that the equilibrium price is actually dropping? I don't think so because it should then be dropping in all currencies.

3 ) Will western central banks sell gold to keep this process going? Will gold sales end in early 1998 because the ECU/EMU "window" is past?

I have only one clear conclusion on all of this, and that is that gold prices are already rising in non-US dollar based currencies. The dollar is strong right now because there is market turmoil elsewhere, and as sharefin has said, gold prices in dollars are dropping because of the market fear factor, or because of the need to keep the dollar strong until the ECU/EMU deadline.

Because of all the heavyweights that can buy and sell gold, the only approach that will work reliably is the "wait and see" attitude -- which is amost impossible for a dyed in the wool gold bug to do. All we can do is wait see - for people like RJ or the Oldman to say "buy".

Excellent astroanalyst Henry Weingarten is

recommending buying some gold shares. Catch him at:

http://www.tfc.com/syndication/maven.cgi?tfc

sharefin: I wish I could see where the bottom is in the gold price. I have too much committed to a long gold investment, given what is happening. The only thing that is clear is that last time I checked, gold was going up in non-dollar based currencies. This weekend, I need to review that data to see if it is still true.

Delusions are not limited to stock markets. They also can occur it seems in the gold market ( in reverse ) . I wonder -- if paper currencies are at risk -- is it more natural for the average believer in paper currency to react by trying to debunk gold more? -- Gold being the only other viable currency that paper can be compaired to. We need an expert in mass psychology to tell us how far a delusion can go before the "bubble" bursts, and people realize that gold is actually worth something again. Unfortunately, it is hard to look at 1929, because at that time the price of gold was fixed. Canadian gold stock prices dropped until almost the day of the market crash, but not after.

Comparison with 1929 reveals another possibility. Perhaps the bull market is not over yet, and the DOW must go up more, and gold down more.

The only thing that is clear to me -- after some hard experience -- is that there is no way to predict a "minimum" gold price. I think most of us have little experience in a deflationary process such as this one.

One thing we need to ask ANOTHER is why the gold price is still going down if the "gold market" has actually been cornered.

Mes Amis

I wish to start two conflicting rumurs about the medals being struck for the next Olympic Games in the Y2K in Sydney ( That's Australia, Ted :- ) )

1 Because gold has lost its value, all medals will now be struck in papier-mach, vacuum sealed and laminated. Each will contain an embedded chip certifying that XXX was placed 1st, 2nd etc. and be a stylised holographic 5 rings Olympic symbol with the words "In plastic we trust" together with the logos of all sponsors.


2 Because gold has lost its value, all medals will not be struck in gold, the silver medal will be plated silver and the bronze will be bronzed.

EB
Your EBulence towards gold's near term demise,
Suggests to me that the coming correction may be at hand.

As partners, shall these two assets, travel through time.
Their lock-step approach confirms this.
The drawbridge is awaiting.
( :-^}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}]]]]]]]]

Updated swing chart.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Swidd.gif
This chart is not bullish.
It portrays a distribution wave coming.

Uris/Hepcat -- ( Why the Handle change? ) The concept has been mentioned/stated before but the simple way you stated it Monday PM made it a bit more profound for me: " If gold cannot pull itself up on its own merits, it must pull everything else down to its level." I'm rather surprised that no one else has picked up on it, especially since it was some of them that have stated it in different ways previously. In stating this, you are saying that gold IS the backing of the whole monetary system, in a sense. Also, that the paper play has gotten away from any sense of reality. What is being stated is that the dollar cost of gold DOES have more meaning than the simple cost of "Pork Bellies", per se.

On to the next subject; I noticed that at the end of the market day Tuesday, you were 'bitching' about nobody giving warnings about silver. Well, last Tuesday, I said silver had a couple more days. It did and it then had confirmation Friday. Since then, it has been acting a tad peeked. It will do so for a couple more days. Then we'll again see what it has in it. So far, this is no more than a simple correction around the futures expiration and purely technical at this point. Wait to see how the new front month behaves about the support area which is now close by. Gold, on the other hand, I thought might make its debut to the nether regions below 300 late last week. It backed away from that 'cliff' just in time making that particular call just a bit premature, but with no harm done. Seems to now be in the works.

One other item; You and a couple others are ALWAYS complaining about 'goldbugs' in one fashion or another; always bitching about bad calls being made, etc, etc. You seem to make decent calls, but the 'way' you present them, with SO MUCH sarcasm of most other view points must certainly be aimed for dis-information; That is, so no one can/will believe your calls. Right now, EVEN given a quite decent record of your calls, if you were to say 280 on Dec 19, I'd STILL have to see it to believe, not that it would affect how I trade anyway, but it might affect the way others do. There is NEVER any rational attached to them.
So if I might make a reccomendation, stop bitchin' and start submitting some rational to your projections. Nobody likes anything crammed down their throats. They just tend to up-chuck back upon the crammer! Take it as you will. LGB might also take this all to heart. Best regards.

( PS -- If sarcasm is all that might be offered here by ANYONE, why be here? Just to be antagonistic? And you somehow believe that others will take to heart anything said antagonistically/sarcastically? Three things: 1 ) Get real! 2 ) Get a life! 3 ) Stop wasting bandwidth! )

2 Because gold has lost its value, all medals will be struck in gold, the silver medal will be gold plated silver and the bronze will be bronzed gold.

OK, OK, the CBs are selling, Australia, Switzerland, Euro?, Germany, Asia, etc. Everyone is selling Gold and it is not needed or wanted by anyone in the World any more! OK already! Will the media please tell us - WHO THEN IS BUYING ALL OF THIS GOLD?

If no one wants Gold, where is it all going, why cant one find any, and why is the price as stable as it is? The way the media is told to speak you would think Gold would be at $3 not $300.

OK, they really arent selling their Gold, they are loaning their Gold. Well, who are they loaning it to; and at what rate; and in what currency; and finally who wants it, and why, I thought it was worthless?

We lurkers here at Kitco know the answers to these questions. We are just frustrated from trying to determine the timing and affect of the events that are unfolding before our eyes. We have not been here before!

To All

Crusty - moi ??

Comments on Anglos deal - Brilliant - What is it ??

150 million oz reserves - 240$/oz costs ( and although

they SAY cash costs that will mean total costs ) - I

would not like to hold Barrick stock now - It was not

competitive anyway but now - it's price is just a joke

relative to say Western Areas - which was the gem in

the Anglos deal IMHO.

I also like anglos experience via DeBeers in

"controlled" marketing via moderated supply and a large

"inventory" - The idea of a gold cartel must have

occurred to them.

But the gold price - disgusting - The deflation

argument is looking persuasive and scary sorry to say.

One thing ( among many ) I dont understand - Why is

the spot silver price so much higher than the futures

price ? and gold also ? Bart shows 299.1 while the

future is LOWER at 298.3 - Is this a vagary of

cyberspace or is the spot price above the future ??

Uris/Cat-one

I am so pleased that *you* know what this site needs

"What this site needs is analysis, not empty-headed mouthings
from the book of gold. When are you people at least
going to preface your propaganda ..."""

But, as long as you are going to grace us with your magnificence, why don't you show the way. I am at a loss to remember any analysis that you have ever presented. I recall some of your critiques, not your analysis. I hesitate to say this, but I rather think that I might have presented more analysis than you, and my contribution to this site in that regard is slight indeed.

I humbly await your contribution..

11/26/97 -- 1:20 AM

Japan-Stocks


TOKYO ( AP ) - The Nikkei Stock Average closed at 16,045.55 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange
Wednesday, up 178.02 points, or 1.12 percent from Tuesday's close.

Have read with interest the rampant pessimism exhibited. We are effectively at the bottom for gold now. Any further decline will be wildly bullish. The facts are: 1. That gold physical demand is very high right now. 2. Unsubstatialted rumors of central bank future sales and short selling are driving the price down. 3. Industry insiders are going long while speculators are going short. 4. The Swiss Bank corporation scandal is a strong indicator of the manipulation of the gold price.

In summary, the bottom is here and the short sellers are about to get burned. Huge short sales took place today and only moved the morket $2. Any forward sales by mines is going to be minimized as many would be selling for less than the cost of production. TVX has just made a bad move that is going to cost them as they have forward sold 48% of future production. The South African mines are about to be combined in a political/economic effort to keep the miners at work and have 149 million ounces of

Eldo
On ya mate!

JTF
I think that we are staring,
Right at the eye of the beast.
To my mind it has already begun.
Seeing all assets burning,
Suggests that the moment is nigh.
I don't think we have to wait for it to happen.
It is well on its way.
Patience and preparation is required,
Till we come out the other side.

A lot of people already burnt,
Would wish that they had been more prudent.
Had utilized their assets better.
Not speculated so much,
And taken out more insurance.

Just think of your position now,
If you came from Asia.
And if you had tidied up your debts,
Sold your paper and bought physical, 6 months ago.

--You would be feeling a lot more secure now.--
Yet 6 months earlier you would have been labeled a fool.

This is what we should be doing now.
Winding up debt, selling paper,
And aquiring physical.
To be called a fool today,
To survive tomorrow better.

As has happened in the East,
So too will paper burn in the West.
We have but to wait for the tide to turn our way.
Prudence and preparation,
Is required in the West.
To survive the coming Tsunami.
IMHO

There is a perfect inverted correlation between gold and the dollar. Gold I believe is bottoming out ( also silver ) . That means the dollar is going to head south and gold north.

I bailed out of my silver calls and Dow puts today. I didn't do it because I might have a short term loss. I did it because I finally realized how far our economic advisors and tinkerers are willing to go to maintain the status quo.

I think these guys are willing to to any length, with emphasis on the word any. They will throw trillions of dollars at the markets to create the illusion of stability and normalcy. It matters not one whit if the long term consequences are ultimately disasterous because they know if they don't do something the short term effects will eat them alive.

I'm taking my commodities trading money and I'm buying lots of food and fuel to stock my mountain house. I know I've been seduced into thinking of the post-crash economy in the same manner as I view the economy right now. These recent events have caused me to re-evaluate my strategy.

Don't forget that these are the same people who built this system. Does anyone honestly believe that our leaders are going to surrender their power because of a little thing like a world-wide banking collapse. They will marshall every resource at their disposal even if it means destroying everything.

The longer this charade goes on, the more devastating the consequences. Is there really any victory in waiting out the market? I don't think there is going to be anything left by the time they are through.

The answer to the question of "How low can gold go?" is best answered by another question "How low will our leaders go?". At what point do you think they will admit their error and let the market correct? To do so would require them to admit to themselves that their intervention has caused irreparable damage to the economy.

I don't know too many politicians and political hacks who have the humility to engage in self critisism. This is a deadly game we are playing.

It reminds me of a cartoon about WW III. The planet was a devastated cinder. Two bugs facing each other, one says: "Who won?" the other replies: "We did."

Sharefin -- I just get weary of the 'holier-than-thou' attitude that gets presented here from time-to-time. It detracts from the purpose of this site and causes others not to post here for fear of a sarcastic response. Totally unwarranted! I know I'm no saint, but I do not go out of my way to be sarcastic. I am not intolerant of others thoughts or methodology. Whatever works! If I might be able to lend something of use here, I'll try to do so IN a non-aggresive manner, but I get pissed when I'm presented with an 'in-your-face' attitude! I'm NOT a 'yes' man, and I find it to be particularly hard to 'listen' to anything good that is presented within that attitude! I pity any pupils should any of these particular posters be teachers!

I am afraid that Gold is telling us we are in for an extended disinflation / deflationary
period. Gold is at $298 now with no sign of stopping its downward slide, it appears to have finally sucombed to the pressure put on it. If they can print enough money fast enough they may be able to revive the world economy, and if they do we will have inflation and higher Gold. If they cant stabilize the world economy we have very serious problems. We have never been there before.

The answers are in the direct and indirect relationships between currencies, gold, and oil. It is that simple, unfortunately these relationships are very difficult to grasp.

Good Night All and Good Luck.

http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/stdata/tchap.gif
Showing a nice wedgie,

Steady: You've opened a thread that is definitely worth pursuing further. Cursory perusal of a chart would indicate that the major trend for gold continmues down, down, down. Without so much as a dead cat bounce for intermediate relief. What's the possibility for near term reversal of the trend??? Judged by the past, low. ..... Judged by recent events? Pretty dismal.

'Another' has stated that a "corner" is in place for gold. That's hard to judge. Obviously, there is enough of the stuff available to satisfy a limited demand. So the corner, if it exists, will continue to go unnoticed ..... for a lack of interest. IF investors around the world continue to avoid gold as a safe haven, the forces that are responsible ( no devil theory or conspiracy here! ) will continue to hold sway over its direction.

I find it difficult to believe that gold will hit 180 or 200. But I thought the same about 300. And yet here we are.

On a brighter note, we should remember that the stocks may take months to decay but they make up their losses in very short order. ..... It's also the reason many find themselves in their current predicament. Which may prove untenable if we find gold at 200.

I HAD A DREAM

I SEE A LAND - The USA - It produces nothing EXCEPT

computer software, genetic engineering know how,

Television, Films, and Sports Stars .

Rich young princes of technology wear velvet suits

and live in the Principality of Silicon Valley. These

prices vote for and support caring polititians who

give their companies lots of tax breaks. There are

no unions of course as unions would offend the princes

( and the caring polititians ) .

The $ has moved UP against all currencies to an

unbelievable extent - 20 rands to the $ - 7 swiss - 20

frenchies.

This is nice for the princes so that they can travel

cheaply and do good works in foreign lands.

Farming has ceased in America because the $ is so

strong no other country can afford to buy their produce.

All US food is imported of course and ONLY the BEST

will DO.

Most people are unemployed or work as servants,

bodyguards, or court jesters for the princes.

Oh yes I forgot, THIS LAND produces one other thing-

BONDS - which it exports to other struggling

countries so they the princes can maintain their

lifestyle -

And speaking of Gold which the princes eat from -

food served on golden trays by delicious babes -

well it is $32 an ounce but of course much higher in

other currencies - It is still mined elsewhere - but

NOT the US of course at these prices.

Now - whats wrong with this picture ??

Perhaps you could explain why my line of reasoning is so misguided. I could very well be wrong and in fact, I would prefer to be. Please enlighten me.

Eldo
I agree wholeheartedly,
Education not ear-bashing.
Intelligence not intimidation.

Shultz
It is amazing what the political leaders have created.
They must have had little foresight
To support and endorse, what has been done.
Then they have the additional,
Misery of Y2K and the ECU to correct.
Methinks they have created a monster.

I LOVE holidays, especially in conjunction of options expiration and futures notice days! These kind of days are MADE for the trader! Just think of the next further out contract coming down to meet the price of the out-going contract. Generally takes a couple days to get sorted out. Beyond that, you have to look for the support area. THAT makes good purchase or sale, as the case may be, at least for a short term trade. Right now, we are seing the new front month contract of gold impinging upon the 300 level of the December which was ITS low. That does not, however, mean that it is over, especially going into the holiday! It is however an important area. Take that as you will.

Clinton and the APEC bozos are gold's best friends. Us goldbugs should
be rootin for big fat bailouts leading to a massive boost in
worldwide confidence. Then we can put this deflation bunk to bed
forever and get back to business---worldwide devaluations including
the socalled hard currencies such as the---- now don't laugh--
dollar-euro-yen. That will get gold out of the terminally ill ward.
How does that sound buckos.

Schultz: Without any knowledge of how it will all turn out ... in the end, I cannot help but concur with your politically directed comments. There is a decided inability, on the part of those in power, to admit fault and correct matters before catastrophe. Perhaps more so now, than ever before. And precisely because they have been able to gerrymander and manipulate the world's financial and monetary system for so long and .... do it so successfully.

That history has always rejected paper currencies, precisely for the reasons that we are witness to today, is of no matter to them. The present system will be supported and all means available will be used to save it. There are no practical limits to this thing. The political trust will not stop at anything in order to save the present monetary arrangement. In that you are absolutely correct, IMO.

Shultz -- Can't disagree with the 'foxhole'. Everyone should have one. I also agree that the Feds-who-be WILL do everything in their powers to protect the status-quo. Seems to failing, but who knows what kind of new or improved 'confidence game' they might conjure. In-so-far as your calls go, I'd rather not comment on them since I do not do longer-term forcasting as some others here do. I have a hard enough time seeing tomorrow/next week! Given what certainly seems to be a concerted effort to keep gold depressed ( and depressing ) , I will not say if your rational is good or bad. It does however allow you though to pick those calls back up later at a better price perhaps. No sense in not making a bit of profit in the mean time. I might add one thing though; IF the elligible comex stocks continue to decline, we WILL see a very rapid rise in price occurring. Pay particular attention to that. They may have to get down to one ounce, but at some point, S__T IS going to hit the fan!!!

John Disney: The theory of divided effort would tend suggest our continued production of what we produce most and best. Paper instruments. In variegated form and function.

We will continue to do so as long as we can continue to convince others that these paper instruments are good, in the eyes of God and man. On the day we are no longer able to convince others of this fact ...... something bad will likely happen.

BTW, I did like your idea on borrowed gold at 2-3%. It would make a lot of sense and beat the bastards at their own game.

John Disney -- I too will second the motion that the mines 'borrowing back' gold for 2-3% would be a fine idea to beat the bastards! Should a few big pockets do this, it would spell the end to this madness!

Earl -- GOOD to hear from you again!

Two questions:

1. Are these options easily traded? Plenty of open interest?

2. Is there a Web site that gives up to date trading information on them?

Is this push down deriving from europe or asia. I'm curious if this is liquidation of assets or transfer of assets into the $?

Good column from London Business Daily... http://www.standard.co.uk/dbd2411/p33s2.htm

Regarding Hepcat ( or the equivalent )

The general opinion seems to be that although the

hepcat was correct in his forecast, he is still a

craphead.

Does this mean that He will not always be right, but

he will ALWAYS be a craphead ??

Am I missing the drift ??

Goldman: A recent study of the gold price I saw indicated actually deflationary times have been better to gold than inflationary. This was true during the 1930's we know. With what is happening in SE Asia we may well be heading into deflationary times.

John Disney -- Let us all try to not call anybody names here. Perhaps those same posters will also improve their own postings.

Thanks for the 'concept' of the mines borrowing back the gold. Very nice!

knowledge has a way of making its' way
to all, sooner or later.

with volatility increasing in paper---------

with volatility decreasing ( incredible as it seems ( interest ) ) in gold

what would the masters be buying? ( getty, morgan, rockefeller,templeton )

they would, and did, buy the OVER-LOOKED, OVER-SOLD, and CHEAP

markets.

with that in mind.......what should YOU be buying??

does that mean mortgaging the house or making risky investments? ( gus? )

hell no....be logical, as spock would be....he would buy 2 klingon
gold pieces a week, and retire as a star-banging pointed-ear-dude
running burgers from beta-reticuli to the periphery of the cosmos.
insurance today is cheap. tomorrow it may be un-obtainable.

the tickets await those willing to bet on a one horse race.....

the pay-off will be phenomenal............
and, they are giving them away.....

california is good
nevada is better

home is best.......even if it is texas...

cherokee!; ) dotssmfatimm------------aol sucks!--------fatimm

FOCUS-Japan nearer public funds for finance system
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/japan_finance_funds_1.html
TOKYO, Nov 26 ( Reuters ) - Japan is getting closer to deciding on the controversial step of using public money to stabilise its bad-loan laden financial system, but analysts say the devil will be in the details.
A plan that focused on propping up institutions with lots of bad loans would probably disappoint hopes for a rapid resolution of financial-sector problems, the report added.
``What we will protect are not financial institutions, but depositors, investors and the financial system,'' Hashimoto said at his news conference.
``There is uncertainty as to what kind of financial firms should qualify,'' Kiuchi said. ``The majority accept that only the banking system is essential infrastructure...but the question ( of other institutions ) is still up in the air.''
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ASIA 2020 - Asia's banks face long road to recover
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/asia_banking_1.html
Asian banks are undergoing a metamorphosis as they struggle with problem loans that have come to characterise the financial crisis gripping the region.
``Simply put, poor lending and banking practices may continue to be the undoing of banking systems in Asia,''
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ASIA 2020 - Property market beset by uncertainties
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/asia_property_1.html
HONG KONG, Nov 26 ( Reuters ) - Asia's financial crisis has forced ambitious urban planners across the region to pause after years of break-neck development and reassess strategies for the 21st century.
From Shanghai's Pudong property bubble to Malaysia's planned high-tech Multi-media Supercorridor, developers are scratching their heads over what shape the region's property and construction business will take by 2020.
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FOCUS-Japan goes through more financial pain
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/japan_leadall_1.html
TOKYO, Nov 26 ( Reuters ) - ``Mr Yen'' called off a trip abroad on Wednesday and Japan went through more financial pain.
Markets were pulled in two directions about whether the there was more bad news on the horizon or if the worst was over from the failure of giant brokerage Yamaichi Securities.
For the rest of Asia, going through its own turmoil, Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto had a clear message -- that Japan could not be a ``locomotive'' to pull the region out of its mess.
The Tokyo stock market rose three percent at one stage in morning trading, shrugging off the latest bad news about the collapse of regional bank Tokuyo City Bank.
But shares of big brokerages were hammered and top financial firms, including major banks, were forced into the unseemly act of having to publicly deny rumours they were in trouble.
The uncertainty forced a flight from the yen into the U.S. dollar, which on Tuesday hit a five-year high.
It all added up to a balance sheet where the bottom line was unclear.
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Head of IMF team arrives in Seoul for loan talks
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/korea_imf_picture_1.html
``In the short term, there will be difficulties. But during that period, measures will be taken to re-establish the confidence of the Korean people and foreign creditors. Then, the economy may pick up fast,'' Neiss said.
As for the size of the IMF loan, he said: ``Nobody has yet to determine the exact size.''
He said South Korea's major partners in the region and in the world had expressed their willingness to cooperate to help make the IMF aid programme successful.
Officials at the Finance Ministry said the IMF team's mission would be completed in two or three weeks, and South Korea would get the IMF loans soon after that.
Bank of Korea Governor Lee Kyung-shick said in an interview with Reuters Financial Television on Monday that the $20 billion rescue loan South Korea had proposed to the IMF might not be large enough.
``I think $20 billion is too low, but I don't think it will be as much as $60 billion.''
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FOCUS-Japan shrugs off new financial failure
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/japan_finance_1stld_1.html
But while the key market index was rising, shares of other brokerages were being hammered, and in a sign of the nervousness in world markets a host of companies were issuing denials of rumours that they were in trouble.
Second-tier brokerage Taiheiyo Securities Co Ltd led decliners in the sector, tumbling about 40.32 percent, or 25 yen, to 37 yen. It fell by its daily limit on Tuesday.
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Tokuyo City share to be put under surveillance-TSE
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/tokuyo_city_share_to_1.html
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Daiwa Sec says has no off-book debt,'tobashi'deals
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/daiwa_sec_says_has_n_3.html
Shares in Daiwa Securities were down 95 yen in mid-afternoon trade at 471 in active selling, partly due to vague market rumours that the brokerage may have carried out some improper trades, market sources said.
``It seems that the rumours started due to our disclosure at the time of our interim earnings announcement ( last week ) that we had a little less than 120 billion yen in our 'tokkin' ( specified money trust ) account, but there is no problem about that,'' Yamamura said.
Japanese media have said that Yamaichi conducted ``tobashi'' deals through its tokkin account.
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LDP's Kajiyama urges 10 trln yen bond issue-report
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/ldp_s_kajiyama_propo_1.html
TOKYO, Nov 26 ( Reuters ) - Senior Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) official Seiroku Kajiyama will propose a new type of government bond issue worth around 10 trillion yen as a measure to stimulate Japan's economy, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun's news service reported on Wednesday.
``We have only one realistic prescription ( to help ailing banks ) . There is no other way than using public funds to supplement capital of financial institions. We cannot help inject funds directly to financial institutions by using public money to buy preferred stocks issued by ailing financial institutions.
``Now that prices of stocks, land and bonds are on a downtrend and we cannot find ways to get out the recession, we have to consider the use of public funds,'' he said.
He called for measures for small and medium-sized companies that may be hit by increased restraint in lending by financial institutions, a cut in Japan's corporate tax rates, and promotion of private investment in public projects.
He said a new type of revenue source must be considered to carry out these objectives.
Japan stocks may dip again before rebound-analysts
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Japan stocks may dip again before rebound-analysts
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/japan_stocks_may_dip_1.html
TOKYO, Nov 26 ( Reuters ) - Tokyo stocks are likely to test the downside again in the near future as increasing numbers of weak Japanese financial institutions edge towards collapse, analysts said on Wednesday.
``The market's selection of financial institutions will speed up, and stock prices are expected to plumb new depths once more,'' said Kazuhiro Miyake, chief strategist at Nikko Research Center.
``It could happen that the Nikkei average breaks below 14,000,'' Miyake said.
``It will be difficult for Japan's financial system to regain the trust of overseas investors for the time being, as a framework for public funds is not clear and corporate disclosures are not yet sufficient,''
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BOJ says slowdown in Japan economy intensifying
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/boj_says_slowdown_in_1.html
TOKYO, Nov 26 ( Reuters ) - The slowdown in Japan's economy has been intensifying, as stagnant personal consumption has begun to have an effect on production levels and business sentiment has become more cautious, the Bank of Japan said in a monthly economic report released on Wednesday.
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Tokyo stocks end higher but financials bruised
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/tokyo_stocks_end_hig_1.html
TOKYO, Nov 26 ( Reuters ) - Tokyo stocks ended moderately higher on Wednesday, reversing Tuesday's nosedive amid growing hopes in the market that the government will use public funds to stabilise Japan's financial system, brokers said.
But some financial stocks, which have not yet recovered from the shock wave of Yamaichi Securities Co Ltd's ( 8602.T ) collapse on Monday, were bruised by rumours and yet another failure of a regional bank, they said.
The 225-share Nikkei average advanced 178.02 points or 1.12 percent to close at 16,045.55. Nikkei December futures rose 270 points to 16,110.
``There are strong expectations that the government is likely to propose the use of public funds, and this helped the stock average,'' said Kiyoshi Kimura, a strategist at Societe Generale Securities.
``There is speculation that the collapse of Tokuyo City Bank Ltd ( 8547.T ) will spur discussion over the use of public funds,'' a broker at a medium-sized brokerage said.
Before the market opened, second-tier regional bank Tokuyo City Bank said it would transfer its operations to another regional bank. The Bank of Japan later said it will extend uncollateralised special loans to Tokuyo if needed.
But Tokuyo City's failure itself had only a limited impact on the stock market, as it had been widely expected by stock market participants, brokers said.
``On the other hand, there are concerns over the health of financial institutions and the market is caught between the two conflicting aspects,'' the broker said.
During the lunch break, Daiwa Securities Co Ltd ( 8601.T ) held a news briefing and said it has no off-the-books debt, including liabilities from any improper ``tobashi'' transactions. Daiwa Securities's shares fell by the daily limit of 100 yen to close at 466 yen.
Daiwa's shares were hit hard due to vague market talk that other Japanese brokers may have similar problems to those at failed Yamaichi Securities.
``Sales continued even after Daiwa's denial of the talk. Market sentiment was extremely vulnerable to rumours related to scandals and speculation,'' said a trader at a foreign securities house. ``Penalties for Daiwa's corporate payoffs have not yet decided and it was another selling factor.''
Nikko Securities Co Ltd ( 8603.T ) was also sold off, as selling momentum of Daiwa spread to Nikko. The shares lost 59 yen to end at 325.
Financial institutions related to Yamaichi continued to tumble amid worries that they may be hurt by the brokerage's collapse.
Taiheiyo Securities Co Ltd ( 8618.T ) , one of Yamaichi's group companies, slid 22 yen to 40.
Fuji Bank Ltd ( 8317.T ) , Yamaichi's main creditor bank, fell by its daily price limit of 100 yen to end at 626.
Yasuda Trust & Banking Co Ltd ( 8404.T ) , a member of a business group including Yamaichi, also tumbled by its daily limit of 50 yen to close at 79.
The banking sector was also hurt by an announcement by Moody's Investors Service that it has placed the credit ratings of five Japanese financial firms under review for a possible downgrade -- Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan ( 8303.T ) , Nippon Credit Bank ( 8304.T ) , Mitsui Trust & Banking Co ( 8401.T ) , Yasuda Trust, and Chuo Trust & Banking Co ( 8408.T ) .
On the first section of the Tokyo bourse, turnover grew to 677 million shares from 597 million on the previous day. Losers outnumbered gainers 625 to 534, and 102 issues were unchanged.
The TOPIX was up 1.22 point or 0.10 percent at 1,208.59, and the Nikkei 300 rose 1.18 point or 0.49 percent to 240.16.
The market awaits further steps by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) after LDP sources said on Tuesday that a committee was moving towards a consensus to propose the use of public funds for the financial sector.
By sector, brokerages topped the list of percentage losers, followed by banks, sea transport, construction and real estate. Gainers were led by oil and railway/bus.
The second section index finished 16.43 points lower at 1,278.49, with 8.74 million shares traded. The over-the-counter ( OTC ) index was down 1.56 point at 766.69.

Cherokee -- It was cheap yesterday, and now is even cheaper. Perhaps it'll be cheaper tomorrow, next week, and next month. I believe that is how the thinking goes. Insurance is one thing. CHEAPER insurance is another. Everybody is looking for the exact bottom. They may actually find it but there may be no physical gold left to purchase at the same time! Quandary! Interesting!!!

I'm not sure if your suggesting I'm hepcat or follow "It's" line of thinking. My question was one of sincerety. I am one that agrees with the majority of this sight. I'm trying to get a clear picture of situation. It appears to me that if there is a major transfer into $, it will not be substained for a long period of time. It will cause trade imbalance to skyrocket even faster than it is. And if this is what is happening then I'll be shorting the dollar a few months out!

And if you were refering to me. LIGHTEN UP!

Eldo: A couple of minutes ago, the quote on my screen said 299.50 basis April. Where ever gold is going, it means to get there soon.

Goodnight all. Busy day tomorrow, and a busy holiday. I'll drop in when I can. ( Look at the gold drop! I'd say the new front month has easily succumbed to the 300 level! I won't be up to watch the rest of it tonight. )

eldo----

this is undoubtedly THE most incredible OBVIOUS
play since sugar went to .02/lb in the 80's!!

the prayer of "lord if" has been answered....

be patient, buy options and physicals....and wait with
a sh!t eating grin!!!!!

gold calls, 6 months with 400 max strike will do nicely...imnsho
buy 2 every month as they become available....$50. max premium


gold will rule again..be its' master, or serve those who you
serve now.

cherokee!; ) home----------and cooking.....with smoke!!!

eldo----

this is undoubtedly THE most incredible OBVIOUS
play since sugar went to .02/lb in the 80's!!

the prayer of "lord if" has been answered....

be patient, buy options and physicals....and wait with
a sh!t eating grin!!!!!

gold calls, 6 months with 400 max strike will do nicely...imnsho
buy 2 every month as they become available....$50. max premiuum


gold will rule again..be its' master, or serve those who you
serve now.

cherokee!; ) home----------and cooking.....with smoke!!!

To "refer"

Since I dont know who you are, I dont

know if I was referring to you are not.

But if you are "hepcat", I was

referring to you - Is that light enough??

Cherokee -- One last for the 'evening'. I can't say I disagree, except on one point: Gold ain't at two cents yet. But I do get your drift. Given the storm clouds et all, 'soon' is probably 'apt'. And should paper still be viable should gold go to the moon, then the calls you mention, and any others no doubt, should be worth a bucket full of dollars, of whatever worth they may then be.

Goodnight.

Gold down 5.40 per Dow Jones Telerate. Why? Panic?

Hmmm. The fat lady is back in her dressing room gargling while the chorus sings on. She's onstage next.

In his latest newsletter, James Turk states his belief that a Central Bank has dishoarded 600 - 800 tonnes of gold over the last few months, a statement which is certainly backed up by gold's price action. He thinks the responsible CB is one of the "usual suspects" such as Belgium or The Netherlands. I think there is a good chance it is Germany. Anyway, we should get an announcement soon.

Now for some optimism. Michael Darling, one of Australia's smartest and richest businessmen, and also chairman/major shareholder in a small but profitable gold mining company, recently addressed his annual shareholder's meeting and made the following remarks :

"There is more gloom than optimism in the market about the prospects
for gold. Comment has focused on what is seen as gold's diminishing
role as an investment medium in Western economies, epitomised by the
gold sales of Western central banks, including the Reserve Bank of
Australia. Seeing that the naysayers are having their day at the
moment, it's worth reminding ourselves of a few positive points.

1. Gold sales by Western central banks have been largely offset by
purchases by central banks elsewhere in the world, particularly in
Asia, and by Arab government investment corporations.

2. Western investors' apparent reluctance to hold gold is a
consequence of their growing confidence in the long term value of
financial assets - shares, bonds and currencies. Recent events
suggest that this confidence might be overdone.

3. While gold has been a poor investment in the last decade for
holders of strong Western currencies, it has been an excellent
investment for the world's biggest gold buyers, the Chinese and the
Indians. The charts on the gold price in Remimbi and Rupiah which
are included in the Annual Report make this point.

My view is that gold does have a long-term future as an investment
medium - as a store of value - and that the current pessimism is
overdone."

Cheers, sas

FWIW: Gold bottomed in 1982 at $296.50 ... Of course, taking into account 15 years of two - two and one half percent inflation, the current price is equivalent to ( ? ) approximately $180 - $190 in "1982" dollars. How LOW can we go?

Good morning, Big G! Any luck with the tiny gold discs? They must be cheap as borscht ! {:- ) }

To all

I KNOW you all get really tired of me talking about

this but when anglos takes western areas they are

really getting something pretty hot. Areas has about

70 million oz of reserves. At their present price of

about 5$ they have a market cap of about 460 mill $.

Now work it out. thats 460/70 = $6.50 per oz of

reserves.

Lets compare with ABX ( my favorite company hehe ) .

At 17$, we have a market cap of $6340 million for 51

million oz. That 6340/51 = 125 $ per oz of reserves.

Lets look at Lihir, 42 million oz and a cap

of 900 million shares at say 1 dollar a share ( ?? ) or

900 mill/42 mill = 21$/oz.

Anglos could always get Vaal Reefs,southvaal, etc.

Their problem was taking wes areas, joel, and Randfontein

away from JCI.

Anglos is BIG TIME with 32 % of de Beers as well

as minorco rusplats samacor etc - its already a resource

base monster.

Someone asked about Rothschild ( ? ) interest or

influence in RSA. Well if there is any it would be via

deBeers and in Anglos I imagine. So if a guy was really

clever and wanted to take JCI's pants off ( namely Mzi

Khumalo and Brett Keeble ) and pick up quality reserves

for well under $10 a oz - it might be worth assisting

in driving the price DOWN for a while until JCI shakes

their gold interests loose.

One thing is sure, if it went that way, we will

never know.

Crystal Ball: It's a tossup right now. My wife wants me to make her an Indian style necklace with gold coins chained together but I hate to buy them just to drill holes in them so I'm looking for some U channel bezel wire. But at the same time I want to get some casting grain and some ABX, some more SSC and look into SIL. Kind of like a kid who's been looking into the window of the candy store for a long time and finally can buy.

Pretty heavy volume ( 80,000 contracts ) . Any remaining gold bulls have long since hung themselves or been hung out to dry. XAU should see 70 today. I say ( go on and laugh at me, EB and LGB ) we draw a line in the sand right here. I hear the fat lady singing "Queen of the Night"...

Maybe instead of drilling holes in 'em, you could put 'em in bezels and hook 'em together by a chain through the bails.
Unbelievable that SSC ( SSRIF ) was UP yesterday.

I've been a confirmed "lurker" on Kitco for quite some while, for good
readon, I have been a gold bear for years....for my own account, for client accoutns and for the daily newsletter I produce for clients
around the world. Now, however, with gold dropping to $296 spot overnigt,it seems reasonable at least to modify my overt bearishness.
The sudden lack of enthusiasm for gold by the true believers, and
the enormous quantity of COMEX transactions yesterday suggests that
at least an interim low is being made.

Watch the relationship between the Nikkie and gold: if the Nikkie
holds at 15000-15500 ( which I think it shall ) then the liquidation
of gold by Asian investors and Asian central banks may be halted
for a short while. It shall be interesting to watch.

As I used to say, "when they're cryin', you should be buyin'" and
the Gold bugs are cryin'... loudly, so I'm buyin' in my shorts.

Must be the weather.

THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - November 24, 1997

True to form the oft CNBC financial celebrity, Gene Inger, makes for interesting reading of what happened last week in all the markets... and what we might expect in the coming round -

Yamaichi's cessation of operations is the biggest failure in Japan since World War II. Japan's market is closed Monday, so we'll watch others for hints of any Tuesday impact. No doubt, based on the Nikkei futures Friday afternoon, Asian markets will again be turned into sushi, while those buying US stocks into strength might have to eat Crow instead of Turkey:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger112297.html

Americans step up their pace of homebuying
Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 Reuters

WASHINGTON ( November 26, 1997 01:17 a.m. EST http://www.nando.net>http://www.nando.net>http://www.nando.net ) - American consumers spurned worry about turmoil in world financial markets during November, confident a booming job market will keep their paychecks growing, according to surveys issued on Tuesday.


Consumer confidence up nearly 5 points in November
Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press

NEW YORK ( November 25, 1997 10:29 a.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) -- Consumer confidence shot higher in November as Americans shrugged off turbulence in global financial markets and instead focused on the healthy U.S. economy.

Mixed signals from nervous Asian markets
Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 Agence France-Presse

SINGAPORE ( November 26, 1997 06:06 a.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) - Asian stocks and currencies ended mixed Wednesday amid lingering concerns over the financial stability of two of the region's largest economies.

Markets shrugged off a declaration by Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) forum leaders in Canada that reaffirmed confidence in Asian economies and called for swift action to avert future financial crises.

"This sort of thing has been said many times before by many people, but the problem is that Asia's woes are becoming so evident that nobody believes soothing words anymore," said Bill Anderson of Seamico Securities in Bangkok.

Spoke to Medium Canadian Gold producer they are looking at a bottom of 280.-285. then move up .Toronto Dominion bank has estimated a average price of 350. for 1998.Will the blood leeting ever end .Was also told IF South Africa mines close they WILL NOT open again because of work involved to open them .We live in gut rentching times.

We think alike dude! Made my move TODAY~~~~~~~~

Wednesday November 26, 8:11 am Eastern Time

FOCUS-SAfrican gold miners seen riding out storm

By Marius Bosch

JOHANNESBURG, Nov 26 ( Reuters ) - South African gold producers are battening down the hatches to ride out low bullion prices and could end up better placed than most other global gold miners when prices recover, analysts said on Wednesday.

They said a sweeping reorganisation of the gold operations of the three biggest South African mining houses announced on Tuesday showed that the 111-year-old industry was once again showing its flexibility.

Mining powerhouse Anglo American Corp of South Africa Ltd ( AACJ.J ) said it would merge its gold assets in South Africa, Mali and Namibia into a 20-billion-rand ( $4.12-billion ) independent firm with annual output of 5.7 million ounces of gold.

Rival mining houses Gencor Ltd ( GMFJ.J ) and Gold Fields of South Africa Ltd ( GLDF.J ) earlier set out details of the merger of their gold operations into Goldco.

Goldco will be listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange next February with a market capitalisation of 12 billion rands ( $2.47 billion ) and annual output in excess of three million ounces of gold.

``What we are seeing in South Africa is a way of battening down the hatches and riding out the storm in the world gold mining industry. In the long term the future looks good,'' Investec Securities analyst John Clemmow said.

``The mines certainly will be better placed to undertake some very large projects and invest very large sums in the future. Whether investors will be happy with them doing so is a moot point,'' Clemmow said.

Trevor Pearton, head of mining research at Societe Generale Frankel Pollack, said the biggest changes in the two new gold companies were at the operational level.

``It is going to be a more predictable planning of the remaining lives of the mines,'' he said.

South African gold mines, some reaching up to four km ( 2.5 miles ) underground, face ever higher costs and dwindling recovery grades coupled now with plunging bullion prices.

The gold price was fixed on Wednesday morning at $297 an ounce -- under $300 for the first time since March 1985 -- and may head even lower.

Anglogold said it was aiming to reduce cash costs to $250 an ounce from current levels of $280 within two years. Goldco also warned that it would take strict steps to cut costs.

``It is the intention that high-cost operations which cannot achieve the operating performance criteria required, if Goldco is to be internationally competitive, will be closed, sold, distributed to shareholders or otherwise disposed of,'' the company said.

But Clemmow said South African producers had the benefit of a weak local rand currency and immense flexibility in the mining operations.

``When the gold price recovers, which it will, South Africa will be in a much better place. The gold industries of other places may well fall over and die but South Africa's will still be there,'' he said.

``The future of the South African gold mining industry is quite rosy because the longer the gold price stays at these levels, we will see very severe attrition in the non-South African gold mining industry, which will reduce new mine supply very dramatically.

``There will be cutbacks in South Africa but the infrastructure will still be there.''

The development of a new gold mine required huge sums of capital but analysts said South African producers may consider mothballing some shafts to reopen them when prices recovered.

``They may think of closing some shafts and rethink the closures when gold goes up again,'' said a Johannesburg analyst who asked not to be named.

A silverless Man goes fast through the market.

With what I have learned sofar, the buers of gold work for the RedShields.
maybe the RS have enough influence over the European CB's to persuade them to sell.
Sinclair

SAS Thank you for the information. The last report on CB sales and purchases made by the IMF as of August reveal that the net CB sales year over year was about one-half that of 93. Although recent price action would appear to indicate substantial selling has taken place, I doubt if it is Germany as it has made recent announcements denying any such sales. Also the Netherlands nor Belgium would not appear likely also in view of recent public announcements. During the last canvassing of European banks by reporters during the most recent previous sell-off, most banks specifically denied making sales. Obviously, this does not mean that in fact such European CB sales are not taking place - but it does make for interesting speculation as to which CB bank, if any, is making any such substantial sales, or is the decline in price due mainly to further speculative selling on the OTC market. This speculative OTC selling may be evidenced by the increase in the LBMA turnover rate for the last few months as announced by the LBMA. The CB bank of India attributes the reason for the large increase in LBMA turnover to forward sales in the market.

Yesterday the word was being disseminated about the coming insolvency of the US social security system started by none other than AG. This appears to be an new faceted extension of the "protection team" who are probably running low on available funding and looking at other means to "continue control". The hidden agenda message: You can't afford not to be in stocks ( as this is the only way to successfully reach retirement ) ... and ...Wait there will be a flush of new money coming to drive the market up. Sit tight...

Why would this topic be brought up now in the midst of all the global turmoil?

These guys are obviously extremely desperate. God help us all!

In a nut shell. I agree with every thought contained therein.

Strange day all round. I have 2 Maple Leafs that I bought in the early '80s for $295. I guess they proove the "store of value" delusion atleast until tonight.

Those who consider themselves analysts on the gold market, why is not gold lower with the break through the psychological 300 level and staying above the London Fix? Are we finding support at the 300 level. Will there be a bounce. Is support solely due to position squaring on the first notice day.

Re:C.U.P.W ( Canadian postal workers union ) and their MORONIC goon of a president ( Darrell Tingley ) In yesterday's Canadian newspaper quotes from Darrell baby: "There's a very real possibility postal workers would defy back-to-work legislation plus closing down airports,closing down bridges,we'll do whatever it takes"---SICK...What is the purpose of having LAWS if they are NOT enforced??? Last year in Sydney Nova Scotia UNION THUGS burned down an apartment complex because their workers didn't get the job--this was done as the police ( ??? ) stood there and watched with their hands in their pockets and their fat beer guts hanging out as union solidarity did its thing....Hard ta believe ain't it??? Too permissive and ridiculous for this dude and I'm acting on it by getting the fuk out out of here.....Canada should thank its LUCKY stars that it was blessed with so many natural resources per capita cause that's the only reason it still survives and even that long-term is in serious doubt! GO GOLD and fire all the C.U.P.W workers!!! And enforce your damn laws....One last thought: Quebec should have been told in the BEGINNING that they had NO option to leave Canada---this has cost Canada BILLIONS of dollars and will continue to until the gov'ment stops shooting itself in the foot ( if that is possible ) ...

Question: There is no boubt that Japan is going to need help in the near future moreso than they presently do.....with their huge foreign currency reserves and US debt holdings, coupled with a fairly substantial gold holding....which will they look to liquidate first in order to shore up their economy?

The U.S. Treasury has been quietly buying gold for the past 3 weeks. Treasury Secretary Rubin explained, "The Gold Eagle Program has been a great success this year. Our average sales price for the one ounce gold eagle this year has been $355.00, so we've made a tidy profit, and it seemed prudent to replenish our inventory of raw material at this price level."

Gold will hit 280 at least......from there I would expect a brief bounce up ( dead-cat-bounce ) and then a slightly further decline closer to 260-270. The Britian cartels need time and a lower price to absorb the large majority of gold mines that have to shut their doors. We will see aquisitions and tight consolidations in the next 6 months.Buy private collectibles, the new IRA laws concerning gold holdings look like a gold trap for bullion holders.

I had a represenative from Pegasus return my call this week about a question I had concerning their hedging program. I pointed out to this person that on page 55 of their annual report they were hedged on gold out to the year 2004. I asked them how can they do this and he said they do this thru banks by having the bank borrow the gold and sell it for them. They then give the money to Pegasus who agrees to pay back the gold loan of the bank with production from Pegasus's mine operations. This we all probably understand. My next question though got tricky. I said since you have closed the mines that you were counting on to produce the gold to pay back the loan what are you going to do to pay it back. They said
they could pay it back with production form their other mines. I then said but then you would be producing gold and not getting paid for it since you have already sold it. They said yes but in that case they would just close out the positions and take the gain. I said that is great but doesnt your other creditors want that money from the hedges as well and are not willing to let you give it back. They said yes that is true they do want that money also. The bottom line in this discussion is that if you lend out gold like a bank did to Pegasus you are now in big trouble because you may not get it back. YOu are now a creditor of Pegasus and you need to get in line with all of the other creditors before you can get your money back. This should definetly put a slow down on gold lending and an increase in the lease rate.Gold will rally on their default if the in fact do default.

I want to be early also, we see 280 and then 260

Is gold really $299.20-$299.30, or is Bart in a parallel universe?

Has anyone else bought this old saw, or am I alone?

The Japanese stock, bond and real estate markets will continue their uncontrollabe downward spiral, and Japanese banks will face enormous losses. As a result, Japan may face a military coup.

Roughly two years ago, while searching the internet for sites pertaining
to gold, I came upon many sites and discovered for the first time, the
definition of "Goldbug." Even then, with spot gold in a price range well
above $380 an ounce, many contributors at the Gold Discussion Group were calling for an imminnent and sustained rally in the price of gold.

After much assessment of the industry, I too concluded that the time was
right to be invested in gold mining shares. In the months that followed,
I was in and out of the mining shares but have been in for the past few
months of carnage in the industry.

As surely many investors have done, it has been very tempting to throw
in the towel on gold mining shares these past months. I only wish to
have been one of the many who did.

A bottom must be near, as even some of the die-hard gold bugs at this site appear to have disappeared in recent weeks.

Much has been learned at this site and how interesting it is that gold
has had its worst declines on days when the powers that be want attention
diverted from global market and currency turmoil.

Perhaps upon purchasing a fine quality suit this past summer for under
$300, I should have recalled reading that an ounce of gold has historically cost the price of a fine men's suit.

Greetings from Tokyo. The Japanese financial market seems to clean the
rotten apples, but they will never change what makes apples rotten. The
politicians, especially the Liberal Democrats, raise their funds via the
underground Mafia, and the corporate off-balance sheet accounting is
gong to be more technical. That is the ultimate goal of this painful
process.

It is the Ministry of Finance that created this scenario. One of
Japanese newspaper says that MoF knew Yamaichi has hidden 2 billion
yen. I did not see this crucial information in Reuters. In this
ordered economy, I interprete that it is MoF that created this scenario
to save other securities firms, like Nomura. Last Thursday, I talked
with an American financial Journalist regarding Yamaichi. Her focus was
the possible acquisition by Merrill Lynch. It is not the point.

The theme of MoF's scenario is not to trigger the international banking
crisis without changing the pecking order of the Japanese financial
industry.

My Hong Kong tailor got $590 for slacks and jacket. ( Not
burlap of course ) - last May, before the carnage.

So it makes sense, doesn't it.

1. The price of gold inversely correlates with the strength of the dollar. This is a fact lately.

2. Who buys gold? Not just us in N. Americal. Is gold really cheap? You have to look from the perspective of an "average" buyer. To do this, we would to look at the price of gold in a currancy, let's call it the gold currancy, which is a weighted average of the currancies of the countries that buy gold. I suspect if we do this, we may find that it is mainly pure market-related issues that are setting the price of gold. The demand may be down because it is seen as expensive to the "average" buyer.

3. What happens if all the mines go out of business? Will they? To know, one must look at the cost of mining gold in local currancies. If the price of gold in local currancies has been going up, not down, why would they close the mines. To estimate how low gold can go, one must first make a guess at how high the dollar can go.

4. Conclusion: If the above makes sense, the conclusion is that the price of gold in U.S. dollars will not rise until the dollar starts to return to more historical levels relative to the currancies of those that buy gold. Of course, a flight to gold for "safety" would be a bonus.

To All

Either Bart's spot numbers are cookoo, or spot

gold has been holding either a little above or level

with the future price all day. Siver is even worse

holding as much as 10 cents over the future price .

Am I dreaming ?. Anybody know the current lease rate.?

- I dont know why I feel this way, but Mr HO Windsor's

fairly authoritative double barrel posting has a

faint ring of counter indication to it - for

openers I believe Japan's Gold reserves are

disproportionally small relative to their $based holdings.

I was particularly disturbed by the dead cat bounce

forecast ( I am an animal lover ) .

What's the basis for the forecast Mr Windsor,

and how does one foresee a "DEAD CAT" bounce?? or is

it all "VISION" - If it's vision, forget all this

gold stuff, and just give us the winner of the first

race at Belmont tomorrow.

Tolerant1: Do you really believe that is possible???? And do you still stand by your prediction of gold @ 400 and Dow @ 5,000 on December 15??

...FWIW,xau 65,second week December we should
get a nice rally into 4th week of January
with a final bottom in April May.
Happy trading

I am begining to strongly believe that the plunge in the gold price, in spite of the world's financial crises is signaling
a severe DEFLATION ahead. We have gone through a 1929 type crash in the secondary gold stocks and
very soon complete the same for the XAU type blue chips.

I say we MUST start SERIOUSLY discussing what one should do to prepare for $100-$180 gold price.
We should not be blind to this possibility and STOP talking only about "Gold is ready to explode. Let's
look at REALITY and learn from what is taking place around us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! DO NOT IGNORE THE FACTS!! I have lost considerable %%% of my worth because of this.

I agree with most of you about CBs gold manipulations , however, may be, just maybe gold is lot smarter
than we give it a credit for. It typically looks beyond 6-12 months and has a great "nose" for what may be
on the horizon.

I also believe that eventually , in the case of severe deflation, the gold price will rise from the bottom and
surge forward since severe inflation or perhaps hyperinflation will follow deflation as a political solution to inflation. This may be few years
hence.
In the interim lets look at the implications of what severe deflation may mean to our investment strategies.

Last thought. If severe deflation is in the cards and it may arrive rather abruptly, I think that being in cash is the
only way to go and wait for the bottom and then, and only then switch to gold. Once again, it is possible
that we may be talking about a lot lower gold prices than today's. Do not forget that there is nothing any
government can do about deflation since it is driven by the collective state of investors' psychology.

So let's get serious and look at the other, perhaps very likely, unpleasant possibility.

ANY COMMENTS???? What should we do ?????

Even if worldwide defaltion is in the cards, it will MOST LIKELY be preceded by severe inflation. The United States will not go down without a fight. We will hose the markets with liquidity like you have never seen in a last ditch effort to protect our capitalist way of life.

It will be spectacular, rising prices, GOLD SHOOTING THROUGH THE STATOSPHERE, stock market crash, bond market crash, panic, loss of investor and consumer confidence THEN defaltion and depression. Gold will go up and then down and then up with the recovery.

Gold is going lower because central banks are PROBABLY using their gold to PROP UP equity markets.

Steve ( Buy gold on the dips )

steady- try to not panic, that is exactly what THEY want us to do. I know it is hard when we are down but if you know the FACTS and believe in
what your are doin is right then it is still hard to feel OK. The FACTS are that the speculative shorts have sold more gold than is available to
fill the contracts, the demand for gold is at all time highs, the market is at least 8,000 tons short. How long can this go on, I don't know but I believe it will end with a huge short covering rally that might be the biggest rise we have ever seen. Michael Schafer is lookin for all time highs in 1998 with an upward move starting in the 1st qrt.
We may have a big DEFLATION but that should be good for gold.

Tally "OUCH" Ho

^XAU 10:55AM 70.57 -2.32 -3.18% N/A
ASA 10:32AM 22 5/16 -1/2 -2.19% 19,300
ABX 10:33AM 16 1/2 -1/2 -2.94% 612,200
BMG 10:34AM 4 15/16 -1/8 -2.47% 376,700
ECO 10:34AM 2 1/2 -3/16 -6.98% 199,800
HL 10:34AM 4 15/16 0 0.00% 138,400
HM 10:33AM 10 5/8 -3/8 -3.41% 981,000
NEM 10:32AM 29 15/16 -7/8 -2.84% 290,600
PGU 10:33AM 3/4 -1/16 -7.69% 252,400
PDG 10:34AM 12 3/16 -3/8 -2.99% 345,700
TVX 10:35AM 2 5/8 -3/16 -6.67% 314,900

Please note TVX ( 2 5/8 ) , PGU ( 3/4 ) , HL ( 4 15/16 ) , ECO ( 2 1/2 ) , BMG ( 4 15/16 ) . Yes, this is very serious. It doesn't look likesome of these will make it. The XAU may never be the same.

As per usual, gold is taking a beating. One of the very few market commoditites that does go straight down. As someone mentioned yesterday, if, as ANOTHER suggests, the gold market is cornered then why is the price continuing to fall. Maybe, to free up more bullion? Maybe, there is a flaw in his senario?

Either way, the precious metals have been and are continuing to do dismally. It is getting so that I cheer the .05 rises, very sad.

Paper may win, and I will have all that worthless gold. Such is life.

JTF, I think you would enjoy this late 19th century writers
appraisal of 'manias' ( if you've not already read it ) : Charles
MacKay's "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of
Crowds". Remarkably relevant!
http://www.global-investor.com/bookshop/books/0509.htm

A.Goose, to your selection of ING/Barings as the first major
European 'troubled bank', I should like to add my candidate ( US )
Morgan Stanley ( BusinessWeek, Mar 96, their BIG push into markets
that are now in disarray )

Tolerant1: I found, at LSE, exactly what we need. Working on getting
my eager hands on the document!

Yes I agree with the thought that says a coup is possible and I think it is getting more probable every day. A mood swing in Japan is already in, people watching their life savings going right down the tubes and criminal activities at the forefront of Japan's problems.

I said what I said relative to the 15th a long time ago. I am as stuck to it, as it is to me. Do I still believe it could happen. In these markets, yes.

XAU components showing light volume. The time to short
was weeks ago on openings with heavy volume.

I add to my longs, keep some powder dry, and wait.

John Disney, I want to be the first on my block to own
Anglo - Where do I get it?

You are 100% right on! The supply deficit is 1500 tons per year with a
minimum 5000 ton short position ( likely your 8000 ton figure is correct ) .
Just based on the supply demand fundamentals the price should be at least
$500 per oz. So relax everybody. We're taking a pounding now but our day will come. Logic and the laws of economics have not been repealed.
The central bankers are having a good time now. But when they can't
get their gold loans back, we'll see if they're still having fun.

A ) The Fed can't afford to allow deflation until the debt is paid. If it did default would occur and there would be real blood in the streets. B ) If and when deflation occurs PM's will hold their value relative to common goods. Their value will inflate against highly leveraged big ticket items like houses, farmland and vehicles. So the same fistfull of coins that now might buy two acres will buy two hundred acres with house and barn and tractor. C ) If deflation occurs silver will return to a more rational ratio to gold like 16 to 1 or 24 to 1 or even 12 to 1 due to increased popular demand.

I got involved with mining precious metals back in 1975 or so when the price of gold was around $150, saw it sky rocket to $850 along with to $50 per ounce and then come crashing down. I had a mine in procution around 1986, selling gold for $280 per ounce. Since it has been up and down. I believe it was Kiwi who provided information that several times during the past 500 years or so, gold has been at comparable levels. We are within historical norms. Should the price spike lower than the norms, there will be a correction. Right now the mullets are churning and in all probability will do the wrong thing. My bet is that there will be a correction fairly quyickly if this happens. Right now non mineral stocks are in vogue. This could change and change quickly with the public looking to real values. It is a game to be played out.

Excellent. I can't wait to see what you come up with.

Psssst! Wanna see a pretty picture? Check out the XAU.X at 6 minute interval at http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes

Intra-Day charts displaying the days price trend of the most representative of financial assets and real assets. One may thus appreciate the day's relative price movement of DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ, DJUA, versus XAU, HUI, GOLD, SILVER PLATINUM & PALLADIUM. NEWLY added T-Bonds & Crude Oil. In effect you are on the "virtual trading floor" of each:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/intra-day.html

This A.M I heard Jim Kramer of CNBC talk thusly of gold ( paraphrased ) ;

"There is a glut of gold on the market. Supply exceeds demand significantly. At least 10 large mines will have to close before demand catches up with supply. You will see $250 gold in 3 months."

Hmmm . . . I no longer know whether to take a contrarian view of this sentiment.

No need to panic here. Nothing has changed. The trend has been down for many years. Only the expectations of the hopefulls are at risk. Gold is still over C$400.

Equities: The long term average for the equities market is about 12%. The five and ten year average is much higher than that. If you believe there could be a new paradigm, fine but if you think that the ten year runup in the U.S. equities price is highly correlated to the runup of the U.S. Debt which is not sustainable at it's present velocity then you believe like I do that the higher than historic price/earnings ratios will correct downward. The 12% long term average will still apply with several years of market losses!

We are already in a trading zone where the average has not gone anywhere for several months. The near term prospect for the market is bearish. Earnings may start to stagnate and price/earnings corrections will compound the drop.

Bonds:Inflation means bond prices go down, this is bad for investors. It is also bad for companies and governments who must refinance their long term debt. Deflation might be good for investors in the short term as interest rates go down and bond prices go up but it would be bad for bond issuers who would repay their pre-deflation denominated debts with deflated earnings. The bond market functions best with steady prices. I do not feel the near term holds steady prices.

Gold:Where else do you stand a better chance of doubling or tripling your money? Even if the crisis takes several years to hit the shores of the U.S., a doubling of your money over a three year term is pretty good. True you would lose interest from bond investment but the volatility which is affecting the stock and bond markets is not present in the precious metal markets.

Regarding central bank reserves overhanging the market, think about their reserves as both market supply AND demand. When the central banks view gold as a non-performing reserve asset and allow political/financial sector needs to dictate selling gold to bolster the economy then gold is basically market supply. As such, in the current time frame, their is an oversupply relative to jewelry and industrial demand. Mines are cutting back their supply to the oversaturated market.

Just as DeBeers controls supply AND demand ( marketing ) in order to control price, the central banks have also controlled supply and demand ( through adverse public relations ) to keep gold low. What can and will change this situation is when the current crisis leads to trade friction and the mistrust from closing borders leads to the mistrust of trade deficit repayments. Perceived ability to cover positions will be important as reduced trust in other currencies ( central bank manipulations ) will dictate the holding of reserve gold even if that gold is never used for payment. Then central bank gold will be market demand along with jewelry and industrial use plus investor demand. The supply will be artificially low due to the closed mines. Then Kitco will be quoted on CNBC and there will be a new paradigm.

Steve
http://www.familyjeweler.com

boy! ijust heard the ceo of micron technology talk about the impact of
deflation onhis company. somebody better pull greenspan out of his number crunching the past and get him to think about the future.

there was no double speak from micron ceo. He did everything but
say the word "sell" about his own company. I guess maria won't be annoying us with any camera shots of the micron post anymore.

i was thinking the same thing. a sad story there. i suspect the
unusual honesty shown by the micron ceo is born of true terror at what he is seeing - perhaps a company of smart, hardworking people evaporating before his eyes.

That guy also said we've seen the high on compaq and dell for this cycle
and they will consolidate and see no new highs from their tops for 14
months. No sugar coating. He used a 'Jaws' analogy and said that there is still an asian tiger shark in water and its not going away soon. FWIW ( that was for all you who don't get CNBC )

Did you hear the guy on taking stock... Wow was he a bear. First thing she does is say 'so you think the market is going to 6800?' and he just says YEP.. and when I was here before I said we were going to see Dow 7000 and we did. He says were in a bear market and will see that 6800 dow by spring. ( he's the technical analyst for some firm )

makes you really think if his company is getting clobbered like
that then could he really be the only victem? This could be a serious
situation that unglues several tech companines with large asian exposure.

MU has been sold heavy from 60 in Aug., problems been known for
awhile, tough biz with DRAM kicked out all over Asia after deval... by the
way 8Meg retail is $12...

i'm afraid you are right. it is very unlikely this is isolated. the
asian currency collapse has blown apart the pricing projections of a large
number of high tech companies. this is what happens when the monetary
authorities here and in japan fail in their jobs. i can tell you this --I
really believe historians will look back on greenspan's ranting about
inflation over the last two years and wonder if he had a loose plank on his deck.

i know their profits have been heading lower as part of
overcapacity here and abroad, and because of price weakness. here's the problem as i see it: those things might have been manageable by them and a lot of other companies in an orderly process under normal conditions. know, i'm not so sure. thanks for your balance on the matter, though.

Deflation all the way. So lower prices worldwide, lower earnings stateside. Maybe chips, etc. will eventually be priced overseas. who are the great american t.v. and stereo companies?

I agree with you there humble. There is a constant debate about the
controlling inflation vs growth. Greenspan I'll bet has really had a hard
time trying to find a solution. The only thing that I can see as
inflationary is that the US has had the liquidity pumps on full blast for a
while now even after the fed tightening.

I saw an article in some scholarly journal ( Biz Week ) stating that
corporate IT investment just isn't paying dividends... how are those folks
ever gonna get it? and how that connects to deflation....

greenie yells about inflation for two years while we are
deflating....perhaps he will reverse and start ranting about deflation as
he starts to inflate....that damn NYU boy better do somethin soon.....

Greenspan is from the old school ( phillips curve, elasticity, etc ) and even
one of his own favorite indidictors ( gold ) is screaming that inflation is
not a problem.

a simple ruler used to draw a trendline on the cpi chart tells us
what the probable future is. the fed has gillions of high priced economists
and still couldn't figure it out. the money supply itself tells us nothing.
it can evaporate quickly without any action by the fed. the most important variable is "V", or velocity, of the money supply. high real interest rates suppress that velocity and in a declining price environment is the most dangerous, and the stupidest, thing a monetary authority can do.

yeah gas at .29 cents would be great... 2 loaves of bread for .43
cents... and I'll put a bid on your house for a third of what you paid for
it.. cause deflation is not picky it is broad based.

and if your house is down 66% where do you think your mutual funds
would be?

economists fear deflation more than inflation ( except for greenspan )
because it takes no prisoners. I'm not advocating deflation I'm just saying
it's not something to wish for. A gold bug once told me that in deflationary scares in the last 1000 years is where gold truly pops up. He said that it is a fear safe haven and the pop up in the 70's and 80's was actually an aberration compared to its total history. It is during times of serious deflation ( real fear ) and not inflation that gold begins its rise as a safe haven. His opinion not mine and he owned no gold stocks. He only has gold in his portfolio as a hedge for disaster.


The chart of XAU in '93 is a thing of beauty though... no wonder Greenie started to crank rates in '94... Greenie's a gold man of course because of that Ayn Rand influence...

boy! ijust heard the ceo of micron technology talk about the impact of
deflation onhis company. somebody better pull greenspan out of his number crunching the past and get him to think about the future.

there was no double speak from micron ceo. He did everything but
say the word "sell" about his own company. I guess maria won't be annoying us with any camera shots of the micron post anymore.

i was thinking the same thing. a sad story there. i suspect the
unusual honesty shown by the micron ceo is born of true terror at what he is seeing - perhaps a company of smart, hardworking people evaporating before his eyes.

That guy also said we've seen the high on compaq and dell for this cycle
and they will consolidate and see no new highs from their tops for 14
months. No sugar coating. He used a 'Jaws' analogy and said that there is still an asian tiger shark in water and its not going away soon. FWIW ( that was for all you who don't get CNBC )

Did you hear the guy on taking stock... Wow was he a bear. First thing she does is say 'so you think the market is going to 6800?' and he just says YEP.. and when I was here before I said we were going to see Dow 7000 and we did. He says were in a bear market and will see that 6800 dow by spring. ( he's the technical analyst for some firm )

makes you really think if his company is getting clobbered like
that then could he really be the only victem? This could be a serious
situation that unglues several tech companines with large asian exposure.

MU has been sold heavy from 60 in Aug., problems been known for
awhile, tough biz with DRAM kicked out all over Asia after deval... by the
way 8Meg retail is $12...

i'm afraid you are right. it is very unlikely this is isolated. the
asian currency collapse has blown apart the pricing projections of a large
number of high tech companies. this is what happens when the monetary
authorities here and in japan fail in their jobs. i can tell you this --I
really believe historians will look back on greenspan's ranting about
inflation over the last two years and wonder if he had a loose plank on his deck.

i know their profits have been heading lower as part of
overcapacity here and abroad, and because of price weakness. here's the problem as i see it: those things might have been manageable by them and a lot of other companies in an orderly process under normal conditions. know, i'm not so sure. thanks for your balance on the matter, though.

Deflation all the way. So lower prices worldwide, lower earnings stateside. Maybe chips, etc. will eventually be priced overseas. who are the great american t.v. and stereo companies?

I agree with you there humble. There is a constant debate about the
controlling inflation vs growth. Greenspan I'll bet has really had a hard
time trying to find a solution. The only thing that I can see as
inflationary is that the US has had the liquidity pumps on full blast for a
while now even after the fed tightening.

I saw an article in some scholarly journal ( Biz Week ) stating that
corporate IT investment just isn't paying dividends... how are those folks
ever gonna get it? and how that connects to deflation....

greenie yells about inflation for two years while we are
deflating....perhaps he will reverse and start ranting about deflation as
he starts to inflate....that damn NYU boy better do somethin soon.....

Greenspan is from the old school ( phillips curve, elasticity, etc ) and even
one of his own favorite indidictors ( gold ) is screaming that inflation is
not a problem.

a simple ruler used to draw a trendline on the cpi chart tells us
what the probable future is. the fed has gillions of high priced economists
and still couldn't figure it out. the money supply itself tells us nothing.
it can evaporate quickly without any action by the fed. the most important variable is "V", or velocity, of the money supply. high real interest rates suppress that velocity and in a declining price environment is the most dangerous, and the stupidest, thing a monetary authority can do.

yeah gas at .29 cents would be great... 2 loaves of bread for .43
cents... and I'll put a bid on your house for a third of what you paid for
it.. cause deflation is not picky it is broad based.

and if your house is down 66% where do you think your mutual funds
would be?

economists fear deflation more than inflation ( except for greenspan )
because it takes no prisoners. I'm not advocating deflation I'm just saying
it's not something to wish for. A gold bug once told me that in deflationary scares in the last 1000 years is where gold truly pops up. He said that it is a fear safe haven and the pop up in the 70's and 80's was actually an aberration compared to its total history. It is during times of serious deflation ( real fear ) and not inflation that gold begins its rise as a safe haven. His opinion not mine and he owned no gold stocks. He only has gold in his portfolio as a hedge for disaster.


The chart of XAU in '93 is a thing of beauty though... no wonder Greenie started to crank rates in '94... Greenie's a gold man of course because of that Ayn Rand influence...

The relatively low 2.5% to 3.5% annual inflation rate is only a
phenomenon of recent years. A wider time window shows inflation
has averaged about 4% per annum since 1929. Since that period
One Hundred Dollars has witnessed its purchasing power DWINDLE
painfully to a measly $6.23. In sharp contrast the $100 Gold Certificate was exchangeable ( in 1929 ) for 4.84 ounces of pure gold - which today enjoy a purch asing power of $1,790! See the ACTUAL GOLD CERTIFICATE at following URL - once there just scroll down to the bottom of the page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/currencies.html

Where to start? At the top...or the bottom...does anyone know?...no. And tempers flair and money is gained or lost along the way...in which 'camp' do you choose to be?? I know what 'camp' I join....I just like to make money....at any cost to others?....maybe....maybe not....so let's get it on!

Eldo 00:59 - wasting bandwidth...uhum ( clearing throat ) . C'mon Eldo. You have a scroll function...use it. There will always be the 'nasties' wherever you go. Tell this to your kids. It is unfortunate but prepare yourself and use your scroll functions and get over it. As far as using rationale to the current gold market there has been PLENTY/LOTS/PLETHORA/QUANTITIES/ of reasons/rationale posted here. I have 'plowed' thru all the gold 'chearleading' ( GSC and all ) since I've been here. I made some FANTASTIC Bull spread plays that turned Worthless on expiration because some of the things said here and my own dumbass 'homework' ( I must take the blame for my own actions ) . Since then I have 'wised-up' and dissected the more various posters and using their 'rationale' I have thus turned my $540.00 loss to an almost $4500.00 gain ( and building ) . This rationale you talk about...could it be CB sales, strong stock market, flight to US$, Gov't Manip., gold out-of-favor, TA analysis, etc. etc. These things have been stated and restated and RESTATED till the posters were BLUE-IN-THE-FACE....but to more belittleing and scoffing by the BUGS. Sarcasm can get old but it is also very fun because goldbugs are a somewhat boring breed-o-cat and they need an occasional fire lit under their butts to WAKE-UP-AND-SMELL-THE-COFFEE-AND-PROTECT-YOUR-LARGE-LOSSES......oh hell, now I am wasting Bart's bandwidth.....just read DJ's Nov 25 22:23 ( first paragraph ) ......it sums it up.........long and short of it ( pun intented ) . Happy Thanksgiving, Bro.......

John Disney Nov 26 1:54 - You know little of what you talk about. But the dream sounded good......pass me a grape, babelicious....

Sharefin 00:10 - That was a good piece of work. Are you seeing a picture now? It might now be getting too late to change camp and make a buck.....maybe. And btw, logic and rationale have been thrown out the same window that gold was......oh my.....I often don't use logic......but I almost NEVER use emotion to trade either........and I NEVER chase losses ( like a good Vegas card dealer would say ) .........and I LOVE a good trend........it has been my friend. I do appreciate all your posts. I learn a great deal from you, THANKS.......now start selling the rallies ;- )

Crystal Ball 6:54 - I can never laugh at your soothsaying....well almost never. And as far as shrewd analysis....I liked your Nov 11 7:37. Keep 'em up glass-balls-guy...oh my ;- )

D.A. - Hmmmmmmmm....I snooze, I lose......oh well.....

Irvine-Dart-Boy - Yu the MAN!! Doesn't anybody read your posts?!??!? hmmmmm...

Ted - morning you Canadian Postal Service lover.....put down your AK-47 and stay away from the post office for awhile.....do some Tai-Chi or something......yuk, yuk.

Cherokee - the payoff would be better and probably cheaper with Bull-Call-Spreads. And you should still wait for a little while.......Seriously...imvho......smoke 'em if ya' got 'em!!!!

Mike Sheller - does Pepi get some Turkey?? I bet he is a 'stuffing' man...

away...to work



sorry for the bandwaste, bugs. and for the US boys/girls.....Happy Thanksgiving for you and yours....I mean it. And to all non-US-holiday kitcoites and lurkers..........I will eat and give thanks for all of you too.....bless you. YAHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Apex Silver IPO cut by rough markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/apex_silver_sil_a_i_2.html

Analysts say S.Korea must do more to calm markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/korea_markets_1.html

FOCUS-Euro shares, yen perk up as Japan reassures
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/markets_europe_2ndld_1.html

FULL TEXT - Japan BOJ and MOF joint statement
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/full_text_japan_boj_1.html
TOKYO, Nov 26 ( Reuters ) - The following is the full text of a joint statement released on Wednesday by Japan's Minister of Finance and the governor of the Bank of Japan ( ``tentative translation'' provided by MOF ) :

1. We, the Minister of Finance and the Governor of the Bank of Japan, would like to reaffirm our strong will to fulfill the commitment to ensure the stability of interbank transactions as well as to fully protect deposits, along the lines of our respective statements made on November 24, 1997.

2. The financial system is the basis of the economy and society. We will take all possible measures to ensure its stability.

3. Therefore we are determined to provide liquidity in a sufficient and decisive manner in order to prevent any delay in payments of deposits and other liabilities of financial institutions. We strongly request people not to be misguided by groundless rumors and to act sensibly.

In 1915 the official price of gold was $20.67 per ounce. Therefore, the $10,000 bill obligated the U.S. Government to give the holder 483 ounces of pure gold in exchange for the bill. With equivalent purchasing power and at today's gold price, the U.S. bill would need to have a face value of $179,000!

Anyone wonder why the U.S. Government ceased to issue Gold
Certificates? Anyone wonder why "paper" money is NOT as good as gold? Not then and not now!SEE the actual $10,000 Gold Certificate bill at following URL - once there just scroll down to the bottom of the page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_chat.html

Japan MOF, BOJ say to supply market with liquidity
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/japan_mof_boj_say_to_1.html
Asked why the ministry and the central bank decided to issue a statement, Mitsuzuka said, ``Fund-raising difficulties were detected in short-term money markets because of groundless rumours, so we decided ( to issue the statement ) .''
``Taking into account recent failures of one Japanese financial institution after another, the minister wanted to assure people that they should not worry about the situation,'' he said.

LDP third Japan economic package due Dec 16--LDP
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/ldp_third_japan_econ_1.html
The official quoted Nakasone as saying that, regarding the sources of such public funds, he is in favour of issuing government bonds for the short term and using taxpayers' money in the long term, while special loans from the Bank of Japan should be used to deal with the immediate situation.

BOJ calls Kiyo Bank rumours 'groundless'
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/boj_calls_kiyo_bank__1.html

FOCUS-Yamaichi woes hit Daiwa, other Japan brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/japan_finance_broker_1.html

FOCUS-Japan nearer public funds for finance system
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/japan_finance_funds__1.html
The LDP official said the panel was considering the four issues of whether to use public funds to buy preferred shares or subordinated debt issued by financial institutions, how to handle banks' bad loans, what to do about a possible credit crunch, and how to strengthen safety nets to protect brokerages' clients' assets and insurance policyholders.
LDP senior official Seiroku Kajiyama, in an article in a magazine to go on sale on Thursday, said it was necessary to use public funds to help financial firms boost their capital.
``We have only one realistic prescription. There is no other way than using public funds to supplement the capital of financial institutions,'' Kajiyama wrote. ``The economy will not recover without the resurrection of banks.''

FOCUS-Japan stoic in face of bad financial news
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/japan_finance_2ndld_1.html

Vronsky: in 1915 10, 000 C$ would have bought a minimum of 5 average houses. Now they cost about C$200 000 each or 1 000 000.

Steves specially edited: UPDATED NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

U.S. Warns Iraq Has Global Attack Capability
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971125/international/stories/iraq_2.html

US Warns New Weapons are Everywhere
http://204.202.137.112/sections/world/cohen1125/index.html>http://204.202.137.112/sections/world/cohen1125/index.html

Iraq taunts US to "Go ahead & bomb us"
http://204.202.137.112/sections/world/cohen1125/index.html

Canada raises interest rates, stocks drop ( Radio Canada - Live Broadcast tonight )

US consumers ask Asia Who?
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971127/market/markets4.html

Hong Kongers ignore 'don't panic' advice
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971127/world/world6.html

Samsung slashes investment by a third
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971127/world/world8.html

Latest Gold News from Australia - WA Gold tax may go
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971127/business/business1.html

Deflation fears power gold's dive
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971127/invest/invest2.html

Native Title affects Western Australia ( Senate Hansard )
http://demos.anu.edu.au:7007/cgi-bin/pastimepub/article.pl?dir=years/1997/nov/25/hansard/sen&art=117

Murdochs Newscorp now the Big Australian
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971127/business/business4.html

David Hale asks whether IMF has the funds to bail out Korea
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971126/world/world5.html

More Japanese Banks will fall, says ex MOF head
Investors will only sell US Treasuries is really "squeezed"
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971126/world/world2.html

Sth Koreans turn protectionist
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971126/world/world3.html

Rothschild Gold Fund says Resource shares to go sideways or down for 6 months
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971126/business/business1.html

Mahathir widens his guilty list
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971125/world/world4.html

Chinese Sinkhole?
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971125/world/world5.html

Normandy Boss says Asian Crisis presents GOLDEN opportunity
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971125/invest/invest6.html

Aussie Airlines in $150m attack on Y2K Bug
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971125/news/news7.html

A quick history lesson shows that booms do bust - The Maverick
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/market/markets2.html

Beijing calls for urgent overhaul
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world4.html

Asia Doomsayers emerge in the US ( Ed Yardini/Henry Kaufman )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world2

Steves specially edited: UPDATED NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

U.S. Warns Iraq Has Global Attack Capability
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971125/international/stories/iraq_2.html

US Warns New Weapons are Everywhere
Iraq taunts US to "Go ahead & bomb us"
http://204.202.137.112/sections/world/cohen1125/index.html

Canada raises interest rates, stocks drop ( Radio Canada - Live Broadcast tonight )

US consumers ask Asia Who?
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971127/market/markets4.html

Hong Kongers ignore 'don't panic' advice
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971127/world/world6.html

Samsung slashes investment by a third
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971127/world/world8.html

Latest Gold News from Australia - WA Gold tax may go
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971127/business/business1.html

Deflation fears power gold's dive
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971127/invest/invest2.html

Native Title affects Western Australia ( Senate Hansard )
http://demos.anu.edu.au:7007/cgi-bin/pastimepub/article.pl?dir=years/1997/nov/25/hansard/sen&art=117

Murdochs Newscorp now the Big Australian
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971127/business/business4.html

David Hale asks whether IMF has the funds to bail out Korea
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971126/world/world5.html

More Japanese Banks will fall, says ex MOF head
Investors will only sell US Treasuries is really "squeezed"
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971126/world/world2.html

Sth Koreans turn protectionist
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971126/world/world3.html

Rothschild Gold Fund says Resource shares to go sideways or down for 6 months
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971126/business/business1.html

Mahathir widens his guilty list
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971125/world/world4.html

Chinese Sinkhole?
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971125/world/world5.html

Normandy Boss says Asian Crisis presents GOLDEN opportunity
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971125/invest/invest6.html

Aussie Airlines in $150m attack on Y2K Bug
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971125/news/news7.html

A quick history lesson shows that booms do bust - The Maverick
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/market/markets2.html

Beijing calls for urgent overhaul
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world4.html

Asia Doomsayers emerge in the US ( Ed Yardini/Henry Kaufman )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world2

EB
Sounds like you don't need it, but,
Have a look at this program and its data supply.
http://pcweb.csidata.com/ua/ua.htm
Highly recomended in OZ.

It charts over 400 comodities, very neatly.
Has perpetual charts, Gann charts, back-adjusted charts,
Plus carries all the past and future, monthly contracts.
I think that you would like it - a lot.
Not that expensive for what it offers.

For Sweat-

I like your attitude bro. The question is not buying

anglos now - but figuring the BEST way to buy it -

I think that what will happen next is that holders

of the various companies that anglo american will

absorb ( and that appears to be a bunch - ie Vaal Reefs

SouthVaal etc etc ) will be given anglos shares in

varying ratios. The trick will be guessing who will

get the more favorable ratios. This is the way it

worked when amplats took lebowa and pp-rust and rustenberg.

In that case, lebowa holders benefitted as the shares

were issued on a basis that was weighted in favor of

RESERVES/share. For that reason and as a first quess,

I'd say buying western areas would have to be the

cheapest way of getting anglos stock.

Another possible alternative might be via ASA -

ASA holds a lot of the stock that will be involved

in the Anglos consolidation. And you can buy calls on

ASA.

If you are afraid that gold goes to 200$/oz ?? then

buy long calls on ASA and puts on ABX and let

the extent to which ABX is overpriced work in your

favour.

In any event, Im really impressed with Anglos. First,

they SOLD off JCI ( in what looked like a grand Black

Empowerment Move ) - then they cleaned out the gold

interests ( the real beauties ) and got them back from

JCI - then they hived off their own interests in the

nightmare soap opera company Lonrho ( Sunny Rowlands

played by Christopher Lee ) to them in return.

JCI must still be trying to figure out what happened.

Gold demand is way up, gold demand is down. Central Banks are selling, Central banks are buying. The Veneroso report, gold leaving the COMEX, gold entering COMEX.

Did gold close early today?

Just watch the charts, all the info is there minus the rhetoric

President Clinton pardoned the national turkey today while he was having a relative slaughtered and put in the oven. ( whats the real message here? )

He then went on to comment that this turkey is going to a farm to enjoy life, have fun with his hard earned pension, and will enjoy his golden years.

That 10,000 represented the sweat and labor of a lot of people. Those people on an average made 1.00 per day or less. And thats working a 12+ hour day. Six and a half days a week. That 10,000 would be the labor of one person for almost twelve years. You want to go back to that? Even in todays fiat non fungable dollars the average person lives so much better than the richest people did when that note was printed. That bill and the gold that backed it was worth what the honest sweat of labor made it worth. That gold was a useless hunk of metal until some poor miner took it from the ground. When that gold payed the miner, bought groceries and paid bills it made the gold valuable. Until then it was just as good as being in the ground.

The average person in Toronto is now living better than the last King of England--except for the servants and the Rolls.

The Great Reckoning looks to be one heck of a prophetic book.

Tolerant1: Thanks for the reply!! For some reason I couldn't access this site till now~~~~~~~~~~EB: AK 47 is cocked + loaded.....

deflation normally means that cash is King, and where that cash is
the fiat dollar, that dog just won't hunt ( IMHO ) .

The Confidence Game is at full cry, the Master of the Hunt deftly
sending galloping riders toward a big, deep ditch in which there
lie many old, abandoned principles with steely, piercing spikes.

Americans tend not to fear inflation ( their property prices go up! ) and,
for the most part, no nothing about deflation.

But any American who thinks their fiat dollar is going to buy what
Grand-dads ( or Great Grand-dads ) dollar bought back in the 30's
is going to land on those abandoned principles with a painful thud.

IMHO

Back to the kitchen.

Americans: Don't 'do it'.....spare the poor bird!~~~~~My prediction for tomorrow: Comex Gold will NOT go any lower...........

I know I am fixin to get hollered at but hera goes. In addition to an insurance backing of gold and junk silver, one should have a supply of Dollars. Not treasury notes, bonds, or certificates. Greenbacks. Cash. People point to the Germany of 1920-23 as to what can happen to the value of cash. But that was inflation. A better example would be the US in 1929 to 1936. People did not have money. Gold, silver or nickles. I get over to an old mining area in New Mexico. The gold is very fine and using some new techniques I can get 2 penny weight in a weekend. That aint much gold for as much dirt as I move. USGS speculates that over three hundred men worked this area in the 1930's. And most had families. There was no work and no money. They traded in nearby ( 25 miles ) towns for staples. When times improved the got the hell out of there.

I think when the dust settles we will think of Mr. Puetz and the scenario he has been painting as a bright one compared to where I see the US going.

Someones playing games!
An hour ago there was heavy selling bids on 40% of the dow stocks.
Suddenly they all got pulled off,
And the tick bolted up to 700.
Strange a 700 tick and the dow at plus 2 pts.
Then the up/down vols start to take off.
Next thing that happens is they start to sell the dow off.

The dow has just rolled over and they sucked in the last of the buyers.
It has just broken to the downside out of a wedgie.
The way the market movers have played this last move,
Makes me think that they are going to take the market down.

Friday should bring some volatility back into the markets.
IMHO

Turmoil in both Asian currency and equity markets has created concerns that these problems will spill over into the U.S. economy in the form of slower growth and falling prices. While the problems in these Asian countries are real, their impact on the U.S. economy will be minimal.

U.S. exports to the rest of the world represent roughly 12% of the U.S. economy. The Asian countries that find themselves in economic turmoil represent less than a fifth of all U.S. exports. Even if exports to these countries fell by 50%, the loss to the U.S. economy would around 1% of GDP. When Mexico, a country much more important to the U.S. experienced its currency meltdown in 1994-5, the impact was barely noticed in the U.S.

Import Price Deflation

Over the past year, the price of goods imported into the U.S. has fallen. With the currency crisis in Asia, the conclusion has been drawn by some that the U.S. now faces the specter of deflation or falling prices across the board. This is clearly not the case, the next move for prices in the U.S. is up. If anything, the crisis in Asia will accelerate that process.

From the consumer's perspective, the currency devaluations in Asia are mild positives. By bidding up the global price of the U.S. dollar, the purchasing power of all U.S. consumers has been increased. This will show up as slightly stronger consumer spending next year.

From the U.S. debtor's perspective, the Asia currency crisis is also a positive. Long term interest rates in the U.S. have fallen as global investors rush to higher quality financial instruments. At the same time, the U.S. Federal Reserve, not wanting to upset global financial markets has delayed raising short term interest rates. Both of these developments have kept interest rates lower in the U.S. and will produce higher growth and higher inflation next year.

Inflation Is A Domestic Phenomena

Inflation in any country is a domestic process, not an international one. While international events can have some effect on domestic prices, it is domestic policies towards money, trade, regulation, taxation and government spending that effect prices over the long run. Looking at these domestic factors, inflation in the U.S. is headed higher.

Money and Inflation

First and foremost, inflation is a monetary phenomena. It occurs when there is too much money chasing too few goods. Throughout most of the 1980s and into the early 1990s, the long term trend for growth in the monetary aggregates was down. Slower money growth reinforced the disinflationary forces that were at work elsewhere in the economy.

In the past eighteen months, we have seen an abrupt turn around in the growth trend of M2, cash and checkable deposits, and M3, which is made up of M2 and CD's. At the same time, interest rates have been held artificially low by the currency crisis in Asia. Faster money growth and easy credit mean more inflation.

Trade Policy Turns Inflationary

Trade policy is another place where inflation is being built into the future landscape of the U.S. economy. Every President in the Post-World War II era has been given the right to negotiate trade treaties on a 'fast-track' basis.

Once negotiated, a fast track treaty can only be voted up or down on the floor of the Senate, there is no opportunity to offer alternative provisions. Without 'fast-track' approval in the past it is hard to imagine that any of the recent free trade agreements would have become law.

Free trade does benefits everyone in a small way but hurts a few businesses and individuals in a large way. The recent defeat of 'fast-track' authorization to expand the North American Free Trade Agreement to other nations of Latin and South America is a major victory for the economic losers in free trade.

It is also a defeat for free trade within the country that has been the biggest global proponent of free trade. The expansion of free trade has been one of the economic factors that has brought down inflation. A contraction of free trade in both the U.S. and around the world will be inflationary for everyone.

Labor Costs are Rising

Back in 1981, one of the early defining economic moments of the Reagan administration was the breaking of the Air Traffic Controllers Union. That act sent a very clear message to the labor movement in the U.S. that no job was safe. That message has endured, keeping wage costs and inflation down.

What a strong contrast the Air Traffic Controllers situation is to the UPS strike this summer. In the case of UPS, the Clinton administration stood on the side of labor and for the first time since the Air Traffic Controllers strike, labor won a major victory. The labor settlement will add $1 billion in higher costs for UPS that will have to be passed on as higher prices.

In addition, all businesses are facing higher wage costs of their own. Labor markets are tighter than at any time since the late-1960s, the beginning of the last inflationary spiral. Worker earnings are up over 4% from a year ago and benefit costs that were dampened by the prospect of health care reform are poised to begin rising again. The change in labor costs is the best long term predictor of future increases in consumer prices.

Regulatory Costs Are Rising

While the debate over global warming remains unresolved, the U.S. is set to sign a treaty on global warming that will substantially raise the cost of doing business by increasing the regulatory burden on all businesses.

The treaty will require the U.S. to maintain its reduce its level of green house gas production back to 1990 levels. One of the ways that effort will be accomplished is through higher taxes on energy. Such a tax increase will show up as a rise in energy prices. Increased energy prices, increase the cost of doing business for everyone and hence produce higher prices.

Budget Policy Is Inflationary

One of the real success stories of the Clinton Administration has been its ability to drive the Federal government budget deficit down from $325 billion to $25 billion in five years. The drop in the budget deficit has contributed to the steady decline in the pace of inflation. While last summer's budget deal was hailed as a balanced budget agreement, in the short run it will result in a higher deficit. A rise in the budget deficit will take away another disinflationary force in the U.S. economy

Wrapping It All Up

So, while import prices are likely to continue downward next year, domestic prices are poised to rise. If policy matters, then the trade, monetary, regulatory and budget policies of the U.S. are all pointing to higher inflation.

I respect your insights to the markets. You have a keen eye. One of my biggest fears is this, the more the powers that be fool around the worse this thing is going to be. Ugly, very ugly.

The words of Mr. Crawford still ring in my ears. The next four to five days should be interesting to say the least.

Preparation for both ( in/de-flation ) is probably a good idea ( cash and PM's ) . Along with that, elimination of variable rate debt and then long term debt like mortgages. If you have enough cash to pay off your debts then it can be done later as the scenario unfolds and things become clearer.

Most people in the USA live week to week on their income. I think of this as being working poor. They have debts ( house, car, furnishings, 'toys' ) . They have no assets to speak of. No savings. No PM's ( obviously ) . They are strapped. One month without work for one of the bread winners would spell disaster for them. We are literally a nation on the edge of bankrupcy. And it shows in the stats regardless of the fact that this is an 'exceptional' economy ( A.G. ) .

Because of the asian crisis high tech companies are in for a very rough ride. They are 2x as over valued in the market as thier S&P500 brethren in comparison to earnings. When these companies tank they will lay off a third to a half of their staff. Most will be in California, Texas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, etc. The present real estate "boom" areas. Boom will become bust. People will be left with $150 - 300,000 mortgages on property that they can not sell at all. This borrowed money in default will seriously hurt our banking sector, etc. On it goes.

Where I'm going with this is that people who are in these areas need to evaluate their financial position in relation to income, property values, level of indebtedness and assets to determine if it is prudent to sell their home in the 'good' times and get into a very modest circumstance like a trailer which would better fit their abilities to pay in the bad times.

Its really looking like 1929 - 1936, isn't it??? Watch out for that real estate boom after the markets clank. It will not last and in fact will deflate severly as well.

Your reasoning is sound unfortunately so is much that has been voiced here regarding what gold should do or not do. We will just have to see what the direction is. We are caught in a financial vortex and don't know, really, where we are or where we are going.

Tolerant
Something is shaping up to happen real soon.
Swing charts point to a new selling spree.
The way in which the rest of the worlds markets
Have ignored Japans plight is strange.
You have only to read Reuters comments to see what is coming.
Some of Japans main banks fell by their full limit yesterday, some 50%.
The prognosis is for the Nekkei to tumble to 14000 real soon.
Maybe then the rest of the markets will take note.
Many investors in Japan are capitulating.
This next two week period should become exciting.

Karloto
Your take on inflation-deflation.
I read the same,
As your opinion on Dow 10,000.

themissinglink_A - You stated that the average return on equities ( I assume over 70+ years ) has been 12% +. That is not true. This is the BS you hear on CNBC and other "official" places. If you include all the companies that went totally bankrupt during the graet depression, as one must, the average return drops to about 6%. EWhen the media liars push this BS about 12% return they only look at companies that have stayed in bussines over this long period of time and exclude the bancrupt ones. Just go back and look at equivalent sp500 type index and you will see.

Tolerant, Have a good holiday. Also please expound on your views of the comming economic shakeup. I am quite sure everyone wont agree but it would be appreciated by all.
Clink

In fact, COMEX gold will not change in price until next month! Not one penny! COMEX and NYMEX will next reopen for trading on Decemeber 1. Globex will start trading on Sunday evening, Nov. 30. This is really to be thankful for. Happy Thanksgiving to all who observe it.

First off, I will drink that shot of Tequila, here's a clink at ya and to all at Kitko for a safe and happy holiday. A few minutes and I will pound out a post.

korondy- I am slooow! Are the metals including the gold market in the USA
closed on Friday??

Tally "OUCH" Ho

Does anyone have the data or a link that shows the amount or % of gold purchased by the various countries around the world. Also would like the % of gold produced by the various countries. I want to take a stab at developing the chart for "gold currancy". That is, the average of the various currancies, wieghted by the amount of gold they purchase.

Having been a Braniff pilot in the sixties and carrying troops into Vietnam and Japan, I had the opportunity to spend some time in Japan. Needless to say I was impressed with the work ethic there. They were great savers too. I once read that if a company went out of business in Japan that even their competition felt that this was bad. I believe that Japan is at great risk today because of the cross ownership of one company with another.

Could it be that one or two large companies bring down the entire country? These are very proud people and they won't easily admit to failure. They are not going to take it sitting down that their banks have lost all of their life savings. I think we will see much violence in Japan in the months to come.

CME Thanksgiving Day Holiday Trading Schedule
http://www.cme.com/news/holiday.html

good call...gold is in a one horse race.
It would be a gamble to NOT buy some physical, as if you were to not have insurance.

Tolerant 1:I suggest we all start believing the numbers at

the top of this frame from now on.:- ) First rule of the market:

TRUST NO ONE!!Second Rule:Believe the numbers,the talk

is cheap.Third rule:Cut losses or take gains early!!Fourth rule:

Have fun following rules one through three.

Gold is going down.Sorry bulls.Follow the rules.

Enjoy Thanksgiving America.Pray for the Asians.

Kiwi
You are absolutely right.
It amazes me how, the closer we get to the edge,
The cheaper insurance becomes.

It will be so easy to kick oneself after the act.
But so easy to be prudent before it happens.

Tolerant 1:I suggest we all start believing the numbers at

the top of this frame from now on.:- ) First rule of the market:

TRUST NO ONE!!Second Rule:Believe the numbers,the talk

is cheap.Third rule:Cut losses or take gains early!!Fourth rule:

Have fun following rules one through three.

Gold is going down.Sorry bulls.Follow the rules.

Enjoy Thanksgiving America.Pray for the Asians.

I will borrow a line from The Great Reckoning by Davison and Rees-Mogg.

"The coming deflation will be the economic fallout of the atomic age."

It is time to enjoy the best holiday of the year ( not much commercialized yet!! ) .
It is also time to count our losses and stop forcasting $1000 gold at this point. It is getting silly, really silly.
I am convinced we are entering a deflationary crash with gold heading down to within a close proximity of 1977 low. This will bring us close to $110. Still, gold is the best protection against what is coming. Once we are below $200 start buying, because Great Inflationary period will eventually follow.
Let's face it, the Manipulators have won the latest round with its paper game. What do you all expect when a private company with world-wide influence and control is in charge of our monetary policy.
$10,000 invested in XAU in early 1994 is worth about $4,700 whereas $10,000 invested in the sp500 the same time is worth close to $25,000. If you go back to 1987 then the numbers are $4,500 and 47,000,respectively.

Remember, the paper investors can take 80% to 90% losses and YET be ahead of us. Also, we have not reached our bottom yet.

Dear investors, the GAME IS FIXED. This is NOT a free market game. We have been had. Actually, we have been screwed really good and it surely does not feel good.

Very simple chart

What will gold be worth when the $US comes down?
Or the markets tank?

Avid Chatter
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-Korea gold price is going up - 11-26-97 Influenced by the plunging won value, prices for gold began rising at an astonishing pace, the Korea Precious Metal Dealers Association revealed. Wholesale prices for gold on November 20 were quoted at 46,000 won ( approximately $46 ) per 3.75 grams, up 5,000 won or 12.2 percent in a single day.

-Surprising that the market was down 14 before Thanksgiving. It usually is a big up day. An omen of things to come?

-back in the 70's and early 80's I used gold as collateral to borrow from my bank....The last time gold was under $300 per oz was in March of 85. The low that year was $284.25 on Feb 25 I believe. Maybe that could be the bouncing place. I doubt it will hold there but i bet it bounces up from there.

-I view gold as just another currency. Just as their are times to be in US dollars there are times when you want to be in gold.

-what is happening? adv/decline strong, up/down strong, ticks excellent +700, why won't it rally? Are they distributing for the weekend? selling on upticks? anyone else wondering?

-can someone explain the rational of the tick index being up over 700+ on the nyse and the dow just barely up for the day...

-over +700 ticks and no rally? what's happening?

-was just reviewing charts across all markets and I waslooking at energy. Crude and all others are plunging and the oil stocks have barely started to fall. if you look at the contribution the oils made to the advance of the Snp which is heavily oil weighted you have to wonder what a large decline in these stocks would do. If you look at the drillers they could plummet big time if oil continues to decline. I think I'm going to watch the eurodollars for a breakout and jump on board big time if these commodity stocks continue to fall.

-I dunno if everyone has noticed but the market has made significant down moves on every day which I consider to be critical this past month.......when most folks are flat .....right after unemployment numbers .....day after option expiry ....and I think it will do the same today when everyone is relatively flat to go home for the long weekend

It is time to enjoy the best holiday of the year ( not much commercialized yet!! ) .
It is also time to count our losses and stop forcasting $1000 gold at this point. It is getting silly, really silly.
I am convinced we are entering a deflationary crash with gold heading down to within a close proximity of
1977 low. This will bring us close to $110. Still, gold is the best protection against what is coming. Once
we are below $200 start buying, because Great Inflationary period will eventually follow.
Let's face it, the Manipulators have won the latest round with its paper game. What do you all expect when a
private company with world-wide influence and control is in charge of our monetary policy.
$10,000 invested in XAU in early 1994 is worth about $4,700 whereas $10,000 invested in the sp500 the
same time is worth close to $25,000. If you go back to 1987 then the numbers are $4,500 and
47,000,respectively.

Remember, the paper investors can take 80% to 90% losses and YET be ahead of us. Also, we have not
reached our bottom yet.

Dear investors, the GAME IS FIXED. This is NOT a free market game. We have been had. Actually, we
have been screwed really good and it surely does not feel good.

All: Gold is going down in part because we are entering a deflationary phase, just like the one that preceeded the 1929 crash. The first thing that happened was that commodity prices dropped ( less demand for raw materials due to overindustrialization ) . Did you notice what happened to the CRY0 in the last few days? Gold historically correlates with the commodity price index.

In the 20's the flagship of the economy was the automobile -- in overproduction -- now it is the computer. Have you noticed how unbelievably low computer prices are now? That may not just be new technology discounts, but real deflation. Think of all that overproduction in Korea and elsewhere. Gold ( as a commodity ) is dropping to follow the other commodities.

Later, when the US debt bubble collapses, the price of gold will rise in dollars ( as a currency ) , just as it is today in terms of the Korean currency ( won ) . My guess is that gold will not inflate until many more people realize that they don't have any, and by that time will no longer have much money left to buy it. We are going to be whipsawed by the financial turmoil -- where I think the safest place for your assets will be in short-term US treasuries or their foreign equivalent in a strong currency, or gold. We should all be as debt-free as possible, so that we will have money to invest in the gold stock markets, or? after the markets head down. We must be very careful, however, as a banking crisis may be delayed relative to the deflationary crisis. As I believe ANOTHER alluded to in his mysterious way, when gold bullion is rising after the deflationary crisis, the risk to the financial markets will be probably the highest after the stock market has already fallen. We don't want our gold market profits to vanish in the second wave of the Tsunami!

Interesting times we are seeing. My dad - a gloom and doomer for over 30 years, finally has something to really worry about - a real risk of world-wide deflation.

I wonder - Saddam is smart enough to know the markets are shaky now -- devious dictator that he is. Wouldn't even need to use any VX nerve gas!

Only problem is -- who would he sell oil to?

THERE IS MUCH LEFT TO HAPPEN IN FOREIGN MARKETS YET

With an estimated $200 billion in accumulated non-performing loans - five times the equity capital of all Chinese banks - China's banking system is essentially insolvent. At least 50% of China's state-owned companies are in the red, constituting a far larger chunk of the economy than failing companies representing any other Asian country.

WILL the smart Chinese again seek shelter in the currency, which has served them well for over 3,000 years: GOLD?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines112497.html

Greetings from Tokyo. The Japanese financial market seems to clean the rotten apples, but they will never change what makes apples rotten. The politicians, especially the Liberal Democrats, raise their funds via the underground Mafia, and the corporate off-balance sheet accounting is gong to be more technical. That is the ultimate goal of this painful process.

It is the Ministry of Finance that created this scenario. One of Japanese newspaper says that MoF knew Yamaichi had hidden the debt of 2 billion yen. I did not see this crucial information in Reuters. In this ordered economy, I interprete that it is MoF that created this scenario to save other securities firms, like Nomura. Last Thursday, I talked with an American financial Journalist regarding Yamaichi. Her focus was the possible acquisition by Merrill Lynch. It is not the point. It is not the competition but the business-government complex agreement.

The theme of MoF's scenario is not to trigger the international banking crisis without changing the pecking order of the Japanese financial industry.

Gold will regain its status as the only real international money.The CB gold sales are finished, gold loans are finished. Currency around the globe is on the brink. I say people jump all over gold and silver.

Cash is good, metals are good. You are correct, terminate as much debt as you possibly can. As Another alluded to, get your hands on the metal. When a zillion people wake up and run to it you don't want to have to wait on a line to get on line.

The US market is going to correct big time. There will be no sense in keeping your money in stocks that have no where to go but down. This flight to quality that we have been hearing about is going to go right down the tubes.

When several million people wake up and want gold and silver it won't take long to drain supplies. Think about it. The US is not the center of the universe as the new story unfolds.

The big money has already made it's move. Once things start to go bad they will escalate so fast it will make your head spin. Things will change very quickly.

The very thing that the powers that be do not want is for gold to get dirt cheap in a world wide currency crisis. Believe me, the world runs to the safety of the metals. Real estate is going to get hammered in the US. Where are all those billions and billions of dollars going to go.

There are many that discuss the criminal element mixing with the government/business in Japan. That is why there are those that think the financial crisis in Japan could lead to a military coup.

What do you think of that theory?

Wednesday, November 26, 1997

Loonie falls near 11-year low

TORONTO ( CP ) - The Canadian dollar came under intense pressure on currency markets today, falling a third of a cent to 70.23 cents US in mid morning trading - its lowest level in more than a decade.
Analysts said investors were concerned the Japanese government may sell its foreign investments, including Canadian bonds, to bail out the country's struggling financial institutions.
Earlier this week, Japan's Yamaichi Securities Co. was shut down amid crushing debts and a payroll scandal. On Tuesday, customers jammed branches of Japan's fourth-largest brokerage, withdrawing almost $4 billion from accounts.
Meanwhile, Tokyo City Bank went out of business Tuesday, marking the fourth failure of a Japanese financial company so far this month. The medium-size bank in northern Japan had to close because of a rush of withdrawals and difficulty raising funds.
The Canadian dollar's fall overnight prompted the Bank of England to enter currency markets to buy dollars on the Bank of Canada's behalf to slow the loonie's decline.
The currency had gained more than a fifth of a cent Tuesday after a quarter point increase in the Bank of Canada rate led to higher general interest rates in the economy. But by mid-morning today, the loonie was trading .34 of a cent below its Tuesday close of 70.57 cents US.
"Literally, the currency has a very bad case of the Asian flu," said Michael Gregory, a senior economist with Lehman Brothers Canada Inc. in Toronto.
"Whenever there's talk relating to developments out of Asia the currency tends to take in on the nose."
Gregory said Canada is not viewed as a "safe haven currency" internationally so when nervous investors want to park their money they buy the U.S. dollar.
There's also concern the weakness in Asian markets will hurt Canada's resource companies, especially those shipping lumber, minerals and coal to Japan and other Asian countries.
Analysts warn another Bank of Canada rate hike may be coming soon to defend the battered currency, which is now just a little more than a cent above its all-time low of 69.17 cents, reached on Feb. 4, 1986.
"The chances are we're going to get a rate hike before year end, possibly two," Gregory said.


This is perhaps the most comprehensive and accurate overview of the HOUSE OF ROTHSCHILDs financial activities during the last 200 years. And undoubtedly, NO ONE heretofore has ever come closer - indeed DARED - to estimating the extent of the Rothschild wealth TODAY... and what it might be up to in its traditional business of trading Treasuries and GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus112297.html

My ID has changed in this new site. I was known as Miz before. I have tried to email Kitco to correct my ID, but it was rejected. Do you know what to do?

Happy Thanksgiving all! My ol'Grand Pappy said, "Hire out for a tough, better be a tough." Be tough you al'

This a test

Wednesday November 26, 5:35 pm Eastern Time

IMF only alternative for South Korea -- Goldman

NEW YORK, Nov 26 ( Reuters ) - South Korea may have no choice but to adhere to strict austerity measures that would likely be included with an International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) led package, Goldman Sachs said in a Wednesday report.

``There appears sufficiently wide recognition now among key policymakers that Korea has little choice but to try to work through its problem under an IMF led program,'' the Goldman report said.

``The alternative would be a bona fide balance of payments crisis and sizable external default which politically cannot be regarded as a viable option,'' it said.

With presidential elections in South Korea scheduled for December 18, Goldman said investors have raised the question whether the next government would stick to the IMF program that the current administration was expected to sign shortly.

Goldman said the risks of ``footdragging'' or ``reversing'' an IMF agreement were ``minimal,'' despite fiscal measures that were likely to be attached to the deal.

The investment bank said the financial overhaul would prove ``much more painful'' than Korea's last IMF program of the early 1980s, given the much higher degree of leverage in the economy.

``With the public sector expected to bear the brunt of financing losses in the system, the IMF program will undoubtedly prescribe a sharp fiscal retrenchment to boost the fiscal balance into a surplus of anywhere between 1.0 percent and 2.0 percent of gross domestic product ( GDP ) over the next couple of years,'' the report said.

Korea sought IMF assistance on November 21. An advance party of the IMF mission arrived in Seoul last weekend and the full team was expected to be in place by November 27. Full details of the IMF program would not be available for another two or three weeks.

``In light of the continued difficulties in rolling over short-term debt, the Korean government has requested financial assistance to be disbursed earlier than ... the second half of December,'' the report said.

I agree that a kind of dictatorship is the direction that Japan is currently running for. But there is no leadership in this nation. If anybody has any comment, please email me at ymiz@writeme.com. Thank you.

Comex gold stocks FELL a whole 386 oz to 718,176 oz BUT AGAIN eligible stocks fell 6,539 oz to 204,558 oz. THATS ALL OF THE GOLD AVAILABLE TO COVER THE SHORTS. The remaining 514,000 oz is just window dressing. I learned this morning that some OTC options expired yesterday! No duh! That is what the 'battle of 300' was about. Holding the Dec contract at exactly 300.00 so both puts and calls at that price expire worthless. Thats why you would 'borrow' 200,000 oz to 'flash' on comex for a few days. I am sure the interest paid was much less that the profits for the short options! Monday is First Notice Day, perhaps the start of the Mother of all Short Squeezes! Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Folks, I give up. Paper won. Sorry, this market does not behave using the old rules. Without trying to talk about "conspiracies" I say just this - you can not compete with money which control this market. You will run out of money and steam before its over - at least I did. I dont ( and I think nobody else does ) know how low this market will go. So I just cut my loses and step out. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know itll turn around, itll shoot through the roof, and I may miss the boat. However, if I stayed on this roller coaster riding it down, being there early when it turns around would hardly made up for money I would loose.

Happy Thanksgiving to you all

I feel like we should all kick in to fund a Gold Wall, which we would erect in Wash D.C. On it we should engrave the names of all the victims of the gold bear. Yesterday, 6-pak and Neophyte, today Miro. I do hope you all stay tuned and eventually jump back in when the time is right. If not, I wish you all the best.

arden I hope you are right. I am bruised and bloody, but still standing.

What is the status on the silver available? I would have thought that the moved would have continued, but obviously that wasn't correct.

Yes, let us see what the next few days bring. The game is just starting now and the currency crisis could not be happening at a better or worse time depending on your point of view.

Sorry, I did not have the numbers earlier - comex silver warehouse stocks rose 180,385 oz to 127,039,206 oz.

It looks to me that he poor showing of Apex silver may have delayed the move a bit, but the shortage remains and I believe the price will rise. The press has been playing up the 'squeeze' on Dec silver and ignoring the potential squeeze on gold.
They must get their info from the hypsters selling silver options on the radio!

The group, or at least a large percentage of you, appear to have fallen for the deflation theory citing the wisdom of gold dropping like lead futures. I have a hard time believing that theory principally because inflation is a function of the supply of paper chasing goods and services around. Currencies are not anchored on a firm foundation such as gold but on the belief in a bunch of happy beaurocratic horse droppings touting the safety of paper and the strength of the economy. Anyone who believes that the supply of USA money is on the decline can't be serious. What has been keeping inflation in check is not the lower supply of money but the lower supply of money within the USA chasing the goods and services. The surplus is being sucked up by investors in other countries seeking a port in the financial storm. What happens when these investors loose faith in the American dollar. The chickens will come home to roost and with the chickens a whole dungload of inflation. I can't see deflation occurring in a sea awash in paper. I say hold the fort on gold. This is the buying opportunity of the past 15 years folks. Steady as she goes. Ted, are you ensconced in your Maine digs yet? Does it feel better getting out of the tundra?

This is my first contribution to this discussion group. Have been reading these pages on and off for some time. Some of the comment has been interesting and informative; some has not.

Am disturbed by the exhibition of right wing paranoia ( governments confiscating bullion, CB conspiracy theories ) as well as the unrealistic expectations of gold spot prices rising to US$500+ in the next 12 months.

While I too favour holding the yellow metal, I think the Gold bugs need a reality check. Like many on this discussion page I have read The Privateers assesment of Gold. While I think his page is very good, the fact is he did get it wrong. The rally of October was but a flash in the pan. The gold price DID go below US$315, and then it DID eventually go below US$300.

I would like to hear people's comments on demontezation of gold. Regardless of the faith we may have in the noble metal, is there a real expectation that the CBs will sell the majority of their gold, if not all of it?

Also, someone canned Merrill Lynch's assessment of the gold market the other day. Could I please have an unbiased view of their track record in such matters.

Live Long and Prosper.

ROR: I bought some more gold-eagles last week when gold was at $306. Since then, gold has declined $10. Nonetheless, I am still bullish gold and silver -- with a higher weighting toward silver. You can't go wrong buying the physical metal at these levels.

On second thought, if it takes me turning bearish, to get the metals going higher, then ( as of this moment ) , I officially turn bearish gold and silver. I will buy every ounce I possibly can at $1 above the ultimate support level -- zero.

We are hearing headlines of potential deflation with which I agree. This is the reason for Asia's implosion and the underreported implosion in Latin America and Eastern Europe. This is because of the massive debt which fueled the growth and the financial bull market. Deflation in the US means capital flight and the end of world reserve currency status. News of deflation should support the metals as it means the money must flow and paper promises are in danger. Question is how close are we. I say Gold 274 though I hope ( bad word ) it is closer though Silver's resilience is truly amazing. I think the shortage story re the latter is real as it never ran up during the ninties growth and now with lower gold and copper even by-product supply sources are threatened. Thoughts?

Gold has already been de monetized.

ROR: Deflation has hit most of Asia. Your analysis is correct. Deflation here in the US with begin when:
a ) The stock market crashes, or
b ) Foreigners begin cashing in on their US bond holdings.

the spector of history, cica 1931,

"...a series of withdrawals from Britain in August, culminating in the
DEPRECIATION of sterling in September."

Rembering now that Japan is United States in passage below...

"Deflation in the United States came from appreciation of the currency ( i.e. the depreciation of the pound sterling and the sterling area as a whole ) and the reduction of bank reserves."

History, Life, is never so neat and tidy as to give us exact replays,
and bits and pieces of the equation are VERY different this time around,
one may still posit the relevance of particular parallels. Yes?
No?

Tort: My deflation arguement is based on what will happen to the MARKET-VALUE of all debt instruments. This must be distinguished from the FACE-VALUE of the debt. Governments always report the FACE-VALUE of the debt. It's already happening in Japan and the other Asian countries. During the past few months, the value of government bonds are falling in the open-markets faster than those governments can issue new debt. A deflationary collapse of this sort is tied to falling confidence. When confidence falls, bonds will always decline faster than a government can issue new debt. In this way, issuing new debt becomes self-defeating. And the deflation continues to roll on.

MARKET UPDATE ( 11/25/97 ) AM-----Metals sold off in the face of the Yamaichi collapse and the Nikkei dropping 5%. Under the circumstances, we have to attribute the drop to more short selling by the gold bears in London and New York. Reuters attributed the drop to "loan mobilization" at the European central banks, but we are not buying it. The question is "What mining company would lock in a gold selling price at a loss?" Further, what central bank would lend gold at these outrageously low prices? No, there's something else going on here. I don't think it's a co-incidence that gold drops every time a crisis occurs in the international monetary system. More and more, it is beginning to look like blatant manipulation of the gold price to discourage investors world-wide from accumulating -- very much like the overt IMF-US manipulation of gold that occurred prior to the big run-up in the 1970s. Nothing encourages gold ownership like a monetary meltdown, and, folks, we've got that going on all around us, and consequently demand has skyrocketed. There's another aspect to this. Recently Richard Pomboy delivered a speech on gold at the Grant Investment conference that begins to shed light on what the gold bears are up to. "There is increasing evidence," he said, "that the amount of gold on loan is much greater than generally thought and thus the risks in the market are increasing. Nevertheless, certain bullion dealers with their 'chicken little' story of the sky is falling have been successful in spreading the fear story that the central banks will sell all their gold. This has brought them the producer and short seller business since the declining gold price is enough verification of the story and the facts are ignored. The producers and short sellers selling at today's prices are probably the weakest and most gullible of the lot. This will enable the brokers to fulfill the old axiom which says 'client's money and broker's experience soon becomes broker's money and client's experience." There it is: This has more to do with the bullion banks attempting to maintain a very lucrative gold lending business than it does supply/demand fundamentals. In other words they have a financial interest in keeping gold down. You might conclude from that in some instances they may also be protecting already established positioins by getting in deeper. The "ignored facts" have to do with gold demand reaching record levels worldwide and that the price downtrend is being instigated by gold bears trying to drive the price ever lower. Common sense dictates that they have come very close to exhausting the downside as Pomboy asserts throughout his speech. Last night, the bears put teeth in their bite by putting 78,000 ounces of gold in the COMEX warehouse the very place where their weaknesses have previously been exposed. We shall see if that metal leaves for Japan and other parts East in the wake of the disaster unfolding over there. The gold bears ( short sellers ) continue to mask the gold shortage as gold surplus. They continue to throw their resources at damage control. We watch all of this with a great deal of interest and continue to stand firm that for the asset preservation gold accumulator, this is the best opportunity since gold resided at $35 level. We have heard many times in the mainstream press that you shouldn't own gold because it doesn't pay interest. Tell the victims of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, Brazil and now Japan, that they shouldn't own gold because it doesn't pay interest. They would laugh at you. This morning thousands of Japanese investors lined up at the door of Yamaichi -- some hysterical -- demanding their money. Money they may or may not ever see again. Tell them that gold is a barbarous relic that doesn't make sense in the modern era. Meanwhile, gold goes down $2.00. It simply does not make sense. This could be a volatile day and tomorrow even more volatile. Stay tuned.

Greetings from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

Legend Mining is a junior eexploration and mining company, with gold, nickel, silver and platinium exploration projects located in the Munni Munni mafic-ultramafic complex in the West Pilbara district of Western Australia.

Limited exploration drilling, relative to potential, has been undertaken at the Munni Munni complex, but an Indicated Resource of 3 million ounces of silver has been delineated. Recently an evaluation shaft has been sunk, and massive 10% silver, visible platinium and nickel sulphide mineralisation located.

The stock has moved from AU$0.16 to AU$0.20 in three days. One to keep an eye on.

Aye,

Haggis

The noble ( now rich mans gold ) has been resilient, will this continue and support gold or do we have a pull the plug on em all coming. The rise in Comex stks scares me a little even though insignificant but then again investing in metals makes you lonely and paranoid. Many have talked of a Dec Silver squeeze yet if you look at the lease rates they rise progressively in time. If you look at history it is very unusual to see rates high out 9 mos and a year. Can we expect higher prices now because of the apparent tightness in supply developing down the road. Looks like CPM is right the silver is really going and players want it NOW for down the road. Ques has the Silver Bull begun. Comments.

If there ever was a text book for our financial times this is it. The entire scenario is playing out almost word for word.

this quote, also from the past, but remarkably relevant...

"At a late stage, speculation tends to detach itself from really
valuable objects and turn to delusive ones. A larger and larger
group of people seeks to become rich without a real understanding
of the processes involved."

What economies need the production metals the most? What countries have a respect for the metals that is thousands of years old. What countries are very angry with the paper pushers of the world?

When you add up all the silver in the COMEX you are talking roughly 1billion to inhale the whole lot. Not even chump change for the big traders and multi-nationals.

I say sparks fly and soon. The metal game is nearly up.

Much will change, quickly, wealth will change hemispheres at the speed of a long distance phone call.

Arden: Since you are our resident COMEX warehouse expert, perhaps you could verify that I'm interpreting some data correctly. FWN has an article titled COMEX Delivery Notices For Today. The total number of silver contracts listed for delivery is 4,322. Multiplied by 5000 oz per contract that comes out to 21,610,000 ozs.

I think you recently stated that there are about 75,000,000 ozs eligible for delivery in the COMEX warehouses. The delivery notices from today represent almost a third of that. In addition, the open interest listed today for the Dec97 contract is about 9500. Delivery notices have already been received for 4,322 contracts which leaves a potential 5000 or so that could still take delivery.

Some questions:

Am I interpreting the data from the FWN article correctly?

Do you have any experience with what percentage of silver contracts generally give notice for delivery on the first notice day? The thrust of my question here is to speculate on what percentage of the remaining 5000 or so contracts might elect to take delivery.

The notices data has two columns titled "ISSUED TODAY" and "CURRENT DAYS STOPPERS". I assume that those in the "ISSUED TODAY" column are taking delivery and those in the STOPPERS column are providing the inventory. Does that sound right?

Looks like the silver cupboard could be close to being bare by the time delivery for the Mar 98 contract rolls around unless we have higher prices to pull in more inventory.

Any answers and comments are appreciated.

BTW, for those of you that are golden, delivery notices for gold totaled 2,875.

FundaMETAList

I have 20% of all my investmetns in precious metals and have made and lost money like everyone else since about 1980. I have read this page for over a year and am trying to figure out what is going on. Here is my humble assessment:

1. Gold is a commodity and only an inflation hedge in relation to its true value as a commodity. This means that the value of gold is not as currency but as a component of circuit boards, tooth fillings, jewellery and so on. It has one serious disadvantage over petroleum, it can be recycled.

2. The price of gold will rise when all above ground stocks are depleted for non-investment applications i.e. true commodity value.

3. Forget the value of gold as currency due to its recyclability. Petroleum is far more valuable.

4. Very few junior mines can operate at sub $300 gold which means that the price of gold has to rise unless the low cost producers such as Franco Nevada can supply the "commodity" "industrial" market.

I would appreciate any comments on what proportion of gold production or tons of gold production can make a profit or break even at $300/troy ounce U.S. or less.

tolerant1:
Thanks for reminding me, I just got my copy out. CHECK OUT PAGE 447 the middle of the page.

"At the end of past credit cycles, the real price of gold has bottomed at or near the end of the credit cycle, then risen sharply." WOW!

I think we are about there.

This definitely will be required reading tonight. I read this book when it first came out and refered to it from time to time, but have not read it in the last couple of years. I have it highlighted, that is why I found the above passage so fast.

HighRise

Merrill Lynch's view on the gold price has been bearish ever since
Teddy "bear" Arnolds wife ran off with that gold fund manager.

Page 339, 2nd paragraph. "One could just as well say that " the government has the power to prevent your from dying of cancer." It can. By taking you outside and shooting you first. But the cure in that case, like the printing-press cure for deflation, is worse than the disease."

SDR
Yes.
We as human beings,
Are very much creatures of habit.
Therefore we are prone to repeat ourselves

Intraday Nikkei chart
Refresh to update
http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/stdata/tcha.gif

Intraday Nikkei 5 day chart
http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/stdata/tchap.gif

High Rise
Your previous comment draws note:
"At the end of past credit cycles, the real price of gold has bottomed at or near the end of the credit cycle, then risen sharply."

If you scroll back to my comments last night to EB,
You will note where I said that his excessive EBulance,
Leads me to believe that we are very close to the Tsunami.
Perhaps closer than we realise.

But if gold has to go to $250.
Then we might just have to be patient.

excellent reference, now is there an indicator for the top of the gold price rise?

Tolerant1: I just read your posting -- where you stated that you were more bearish than I am. I guess that's possible, but I don't see how. In my book, "Total Collapse", I explain why I believe a complete collapse of our financial system will occur, with the coming deflation. I would like to discuss with you, you're thoughts. E-mail me at bpuetz@holli.com to continue this discussion.

hello, can someone advise me where I can purchase gold? Do I need to go to a stock broker? Currently have my savings in stocks via company 401K and am interested in buying some gold. Please help me out

KITCOITES

" You can expect additional currency crises and worse.....Watch bond prices carefully"

"Deflation and hyperinflation are not remote polar opposites, but the male and female of the same species."

page 446 The Great Reckoning
by Davidson & Rees-Mogg
THIS IS A MUST READ

If any fellow Kitcoers are also U.S. federal employees, let me know if you received a similar request from Uncle Sam. We were asked at the facility where I work if we own any weapons and were asked to fill out a questionaire about them. The request e-mail appears below. I believe that the memorandum and request came down from Washington.

As acting assistant director today, I have been asked to provide a
memorandum and questionnaire to all employees "authorized to possess
Government-owned or personally-owned firearms or ammunition for
official Government business, whether for law enforcement,
self-defense, or otherwise." The memorandum and questionnaire have
been faxed to us ...

I agree with Tort and Karlito. It still is an inflationary future for the USA. A seachange is occurring in investor ( smart money ) sentiment. $'s exiting the financial markets will flow into hard assets. It is different this time, however. Most company 401k plans offer limited options -- predominantly mutual funds -- a gold mutual fund is rare indeed among the options. Additionally, "most" contributors have the
autopilot switch on. Most of them have not even tested the voice response unit to transfer among funds. Consequently, financial asset deflation will be gradual -- and tortuous for the individual investor. Most contributors consider transfering to a money market fund laughable ( 4% ) ! I am the VP of Operations for an aerospace engineering company and there continues to be an astounding level of complacency on the automatic 401k contribution. It's like taxes, since you never see it, it's not real money anyway. My prediction -- slow financial asset deflation with a more rapid hard asset inflation ( domestically ) . The boomers and genxers, due to a general lack of awareness, will finance the coming inflation trend with their inflated 401k funds. Will gold benefit? Does the Pope wear a beanie?

if the wording of the questionaire uses the words "requests" or "must" you can ignore the questionaire, legally, "must" is interpreted to mean "may". Only "required" and stating on what authority it is required, would you be required to answer.

U.S. upbeat on Latin American economies
WASHINGTON, Nov 26 ( Reuters ) - The United States gave an
upbeat assessment on Wednesday of Latin America's ability to
withstand the effects of global financial turmoil, saying the
region's economies had improved strongly in recent years.
Ahead of a meeting next week between U.S. Treasury Secretary
Robert Rubin and Latin America finance ministers, a senior
Treasury official said stringent financial sector reforms had
been key to the hemisphere's robust economic performance despite
the effects of Asian financial crises.
Rubin is scheduled to meet his Latin American counterparts
on Tuesday and Wednesday at the Second Meeting of Ministers of
Finance of the Western Hemisphere in Santiago, Chile.
The United States has a strong interest in the wellbeing of
its southern neighbours. Latin America -- including Mexico,
South and Central America -- accounts for about 19 percent of
U.S. exports, according to Commerce Department data.
The turmoil that ignited in Southeast Asia hit Latin America
with a vengeance a month ago.
Markets in Brazil have plunged, forcing the government to
raise interest rates and introduce a harsh fiscal package. In
neighbouring Argentina, stocks have plunged some 30 percent over
the past month.

Looking at the present sad state of affairs for our Asian frinds, I seems very reasonable that they will be forced to sell U.S. Treasuries to help pull them out from the finanical diaster they are facing. They most likely have already been selling treauries.

They need as much money ( ??? getting difficult to say money is nowadays. ) as possible to pay off debts of the large variety. They know as they move from the U.S. dollar to Yen ( or their currency of choice ) , the dollar will go down and their currency will rise.

They may want to keep their currency low to move the maximum amount of goods in the world markets during this critical time.

To increase their earnings, they could buy gold. The more dollar based assets they sell ( treasuries ... ) and more gold they buy, will set in motion a positive translation for their bullion ( their net assets will increase at a more rapid pace than their declining U.S. treasury assets ) . Their gold assets would remain invisble for longer than most would imagine, because the powers to be want to keep the illusion going.

It would be advantegous for them to keep their action in the dark as long as possible. Maybe, right up to the point that no bullion would be avaible.

The pm's are dollar based at this time, which allows a country to accumulate and store value ( and increase that stored value ) without impacting its currency and possible its currency trade advantage.

Does this make sense??

Wait till you see what happens when it starts to hit the fan and people in the US find out about ALL the Executive Powers that exist in direct opposition to the Constitution. In addition the beefing up of police, the FBI, and other governmental agencies will really send a chill up Americans spines when they realize whats going on.

The last 2 times gold went under $300, ( 82 & 85 I believe ) it soon thereafter went to over $500. Lets do it again.

High Rise: Davidson and Rees-Mogg are not bearish enough. They have been recommending investing in Argentina and some of the Asian countries. The point they have failed to either make or emphasize -- is that, all of the major economies throughtout the world operate off of the same ( inherently dishonest ) central-banking and fractional-reserve monetary system as ours in the United States. For that reason, NO country in the world is a safe haven -- not even Switzerland. Gold and silver are the only true safe havens.

Which part of the government sent the request to you and which portion or heading would your job fall under?

Prudent: I don't intend to answer the questionaire. Tolerant1: I suspect that the request that I recieved was a just a poorly worded document pertaining to some goofy bureacrat's need to count beans. It does sound weird though, doesn't it. If I heard that people in other agencies were getting similar requests, then I would wonder what they're up to.

It strikes me as very odd that the sender of the questionaire would know through registration and need not have to ask.

Hipshot: I disagree with your inflationary scenario. However, what you say about retirement money is 100% correct. I have a large sum of money in a corporate retirement fund. My only choices are:
a ) Stocks,
b ) Bonds,
c ) Short-term interest rate fund ( CD's in money-center banks )

Gold stocks, gold coins, and silver coins are not available as options. I have argued and protested in every possible manner, to get a change. Nothing works. I have selected the short-term interest rate fund as the lesser of the evils. But, I have also given up on that selection as a complete loss.

I'm a scientist in the Department of the Interior. We use firearms from time to time in our work, to collect specimens mostly, but never use firearms for self defense as stated in the memo.

For gold to go up the CON fidence of US dollar must be undermined...as we all well know. This isn't going to be easy but as I see it and you wanted to do this then things are going exactly to plan and world leaders have not done anything extraordinary to suggest that they could circumvent this. In fact there pleas for renewed CONfidence are sounding shriller by the minute and ever more frequent.

Here's the battle plan;

Preparations...dishoard paper gold into world markets creating an illusion of increased prosperity and wealth, convincing countries to open up borders and trade freely with their respective currencies.

Phase 1...gradually bring down the paper currencies starting with the weakest first in a region...call in long outstanding loans at critical times to create the optimum debasement...give yankee stock market a scare to sow the seeds of doubt and allow them to stew for a while...US may not be exposed so much to Asia but they are to Canada S.America ( remember NAFTA? ) ...Canada S.America are exposed to Asia so will be vulnerable....

Successful

Phase 2...Attack Canada S.American currencies also Australia...soon after hit yankee stocks again for second wake-up call...meanwhile peck away at weak Europeans, Greece, Italy ( Ireland has grossly overvalued currency that has been built up irrationally, not a coincidence I don't think ) ...hit Ireland big time just before EMU ( march '98 ) , soon after revisit British pound...then spray a few rounds on French franc and Deutschemark for good measure.

Phase 3...Buy gold, gold stocks, silver, silver stocks ....Hit US stocks and bonds bigtime with everything earned from shorting all world currencies and markets...sit back and watch them crawl to your doorstep.

The post you refer to was one wherein I wanted to get people to wake up to the smell of coffee so to speak. Your vision of the future is appropriate in my opinion.

I see tremendous political overtones in the future. It is my opinion that the United States will be tested in far more than just a financial battle.

I think we are very near the end game. I shall post an E-mail to you soon.

Tolerant1/High Rise
In the book by Davidson and Rees-Mogg.
Does it mention anything at all about the time lengths,
Spent at the top of a Mania?
From my understanding the tops are always of a short duration.
I have not read the book and am curious.
Thanks


Top 40 brokers are taking stock
http://www.futuresmag.com/library/dec97/trends.html

I think that there are some very substantial problems facing the world. When things start to go rotten from the inside out alliances go bad. In a world of distrust things get back to the basics very quickly.

The Middle East is a cauldron of hate and loathing. I have yet to speak with an individual in the armed forces of the United States that thinks much of the President here. Yet we have another major build up in the area again due to Mr. Hussein and his biological warfare games.

China is ruled with an iron fist. Korea is closer to war than peace in my opinion. Japan stands a good chance of major internal conflict. Europe, well, it just seems that they are as fragmented as ever. Africa is in shambles.

Lets see. Canada may be losing roughly $200,000,000.00 a day due to the mail strike as some estimates suggest. Australia seems to be unusually hacked off with its government. People in Mexico, well things there are not great as it seems that there is no shortage of people crossing the border into the US.

Turkey and Russia are squaring off over the oil in the Caspian. France and Russia are buddies with Iraq and Iran.

I could go on and break things down further but I think it is clear that we are closer to being a global powder keg than we are to a big, happy global family looking for a one world currency.

Meanwhile back at the ranch eveybody is worried about their wallets and the game afoot may have nothing to do with our money as I have stated here before.

Kiwi: I disagree that the confidence in the U.S. dollar has to be undermined. When the Euro gets pegged to the currencies it will replace, investment capital will move back to Europe. When Asia bottoms out, the bargain hunters will be moving in for some deals. In the meantime, the money is moving to "safe haven" in the U.S. When capital starts flowing out of the U.S. dollar, that will be the time to buy gold.

Yes, on pages; 23, 151, 250, 253, 292, 302, 314, 370, 408 -- give me a few minutes and I will get back with some quotes eh.

Prudent: The Lafayette, Indiana area is proud of many things -- Purdue University ( West Lafayette ) included. Unfortunately, Guns and Roses is not one of them -- i.e., Axel Rose. My sincere apologies.

Kiwi: You hit the nail on the head. It's all a CONfidence game. How long can the US government CON its creditors into believing its credit is good?

sharefin
At the time I read this book 3-4 yrs ago, I thought that the authors were very good at hedging their predictions. They made a statement that of course the politicians may reinflate the economy extending its life and that is exactly what has happened. We are it appears close to the end of that reinflation period.

Shares under pressure today
How does the nikkei keep rising when the financial sector is being trashed.
This happened yesterday as well.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tokyo Hot Stocks: Fuji, Yasuda, LTCB, Daiwa Sec
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/tokyo_hot_stocks_fuj_1.html
TOKYO, Nov 27 ( Reuters ) - The following are stocks on the move:

0122 GMT - Fuji Bank Ltd ( 8317.T ) down by limit low of 100 at 526. Bank is main creditor bank of failed Yamaichi Securities Co Ltd ( 8602.T ) and investors are worried it may not be able to recover loans to the brokerage, traders said.

0118 GMT - Yasuda Trust & Banking Co Ltd ( 8404.T ) ask-only at 49, down 30 from Wednesday's close, despite its measures to boost its business and capital base.

0052 GMT - Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan Ltd ( 8303.T ) down 11 at 185. Moody's Investors Service said on Wednesday it has placed the bank's credit ratings under review for possible downgrade.

0033 GMT - Daiwa Securities Co Ltd ( 8601.T ) up nine at 475.

Daiwa Securities fall by daily limit on Wednesday was blamed by a Daiwa official on market rumours.

The official said rumours started due to brokerage's disclosure that it had a little less than 120 billion yen in its ``tokkin'' ( specified money trust ) account. Rumours totally groundless, he said.

0024 GMT - Towa Real Estate Development Co Ltd ( 8834.T ) bid only at 25 against its close of 22 on Wednesday, and construction company Fujita Corp ( 1806.T ) bid only at 44 against its Wednesday's close of 35. Both were heavily sold on Wednesday.

Towa, a Fujita affiliate, said on Wednesday it maintains its earnings forecast for current business year to March 1998.

Fujita, which is implementing restructuring, said also on Wednesday it is considering to announcing early next year earnings forecast and progress in restructuring.

0013 GMT - Taiheiyo Securities Co Ltd ( 8618.T ) bid-only at 44 against Wednesday's close at 41.

Its share prices fell sharply on Wednesday.

Taiheiyo belongs to the Yamaichi Securities group.

0003 GMT - Yasuda Trust & Banking Co Ltd ( 8404.T ) ask only at 74 yen against its close of 79 yen on Wednesday.

Yasuda Trust said it, Fuji Bank Ltd ( 8317.T ) , Yasuda Mutual Life Insurance and Yasuda Fire & Marine Insurance Co Ltd ( 8755.T ) have agreed on measures to boost Yasuda Trust's business and capital base.

Yasuda said it has no short-term liquidity problems.

0003 GMT - Fuji Bank ask-only at 616 against its close of 626 on Wednesday.

Bank is main creditor bank of failed Yamaichi Securities Co Ltd ( 8602.T ) and investors are worried it may not be able to recover loans to the brokerage, traders said.

First of all: Somebody through that dn guy a lifejacket PRONTO.
SDRer_A 19:36 - Good One!
ROR 19:29 - Ditto!
Haggis ( yechh ) Double Ditto- I think.
I'll know for sure after I translate .."Munni Munni mafic-ultramafic complex in the West Pilbara..." BTW - Are the Australian Munni Munni related to the British Isle Mooney Mooney?
BUFFORD - Is that a TRUE story? If so its a good one. :- )
Digdeep - Sounds good. How deep do we have to go? Let's call up old Billy Barker's ghost to find out. There's a good quiz for a lonely goldbug. Question. Just who was Billy Barker anyway? First correct answer gets ten bonus brownie points. Right Bart?
sharefin and steady and JTF and Allen - RELAX - The world is unfolding as it should. ( and Allen - IF inflation really takes off I want to be holding the biggest and the mostest ( that's correct - mostest! ) mortgages that I can! )
EB - Looks like sharefin gave you ( at 13:53 ) what you were looking for. Now you won't have to ring up all those long distance charges calling me for the latest. :- ) Actually taking a serious break for awhile. Don't want to be accused of being addicted, like we KNOW most others here are! In the meanwhile since my posts are way down lately I guess I can occasionally give you a run for your money with a slightly ambivalent,
ambling one, EH EB Amigo?
Ted - You're welcome for any info I can provide Bro! Got any takers on the kayak yet? Its got to be one of the world's most famous and I'm amazed that an International Bidding Competition hasn't begun with a tough auction bidding up prices from many Australian, Canadian and American interests!
Selby - I'm sure that you've heard my famous Mooney quote by now, "B.S. baffles brains"; now what was that about the AVERAGE Torontonian being as well off as that merry olde king of Englande? Come now, my good fellow. If that were the case, Toronto would be quickly depopulated and the rest of the world would be in a sea of tourists trying their damnest to figure out the local exchange for their sacks of looney-tunes. ( right Eldorado? )
Reify and BillP - If you guys don't stop sending me all those daily jokes I'm gonna be costing the Canadian taxpayer extra funds as me doctor will have to put many stitches in my splitting sides.
vronsky - I can't understand why you keep trying to convince the masses, using historical facts and hard data, that Gold has long term value as a secure store of wealth. How can anybody fall for that malarkey. EVERYBODY knows by now that it only goes DOWN in value, ( right EB, ;- ) ) , and that it is a useless RELIC of the past. And those gold notes and things you speak of - that never really happened; it was all some kind of financial
swindle in our ancestor's times. Gold Smould - throw it away! This is a new millennium baby, the old rules just don't apply anymore. And pendulums are a thing of the past too cherokee! And that reminds me:
John Disney - What's all this, " ...I think that what will happen next is that holders of the various companies that anglo american will absorb ...", about? Is this some kind of WASP plot to take over the world? Just who do they think their fooling here anyway? A bunch of IDIOTS? Those British and Americans always seem to think they can take over any part of the world they want don't they? Well we Canadians ( Kiwi - take notes ) have held an emergency counsel and drawn a "line in the SNOW", - Moosenee and not an inch further. If all else fails we are going to take over Superman's ice fortress, and IF he's home the back-up plan is to hide out in some igloos with the man in red and his eight ( nine? ) reindeer
and weave baskets for a year or sew. Kiwi contact me on a super secure land line to discuss co-ordinating N.Z. and Canadian plans!

Goodnight ALL and especially you Glenn - wherever you might be.

P.S. B.T.W. - What's all this nonsense I've been hearing lately about melt-downs in H.K. and Japan and panning for gold dust in New Mexico?
PPS - Can you see what would happen, Major, if everyone started to post responses to everybody elses posts? cherokee would be vindicated and chaos would again rule the world. ( At present chaos only rules a tad over 83.7% )

sharefin:

IMHO, money has been printed and pumped into this economy at unprecedented levels with inflation being hidden by the Asian labor market or with just phony numbers being released to the public. It is all within one;s perception of things - they tell us we are rich therefore we are rich.

I have always had a problem determining exactly were we are in this cycle, but current events definitely reinforce the belief that we are in a world of conflicting signals - 2/3 in deflation and the other 1/3 in denial of and concealing inflation. We do have an environment where governments are going to try to reinflate the world economy. The US$ is the key to future events. If they use the US$ in this attempt to reinflate or monetize the troubled world currencies and economies, bond holders will become more than nervous.

The appearance of rapid debasement of the currency would send bonds tumbling. Gold would skyrocket.

There is a possibility that they may try another period of relation. IMHO that will be only a temporary bandage. The US must protect the US$ but the politicians will not they are being sucked in to a deflationary vortex.

Who knows when this will all take place - six days or six months, but one thing is sure we may be very close.

Watch the growth of currency as a crucial sign that the economy is headed for a deflationary contraction.

Havent you wondered why Japan and the others are having such a hard time when they have all of those US$. They have been sucking us dry for years and now they have a problem. Are those US$ worth what they traded for them. Japan has no Oil, and I have heard that they have little Gold. They need Oil how are they paying for the Oil - with deflated Yen or US$. The price of Oil is dropping - why?

 When the value of collateral falls, and the publics demand to hold cash rises, even easy money at the Fed may not stop deflation.

To answer the question how close are we? IMHO they want this problems magnitude to be softened, that is why the Japan banking holiday and thanksgiving week make for a perfect interruption in trading. They have to get us through the Christmas shopping season. This will drag out, slowly and just gradually shrink the publics savings.

tolerant1 GREAT! Exactly, Page after Page the entire screen play!

An excellent book with very credible rationale. The problem is they ( the authors ) have both been bearish for so long they have tended to become more and more strident as events unfold to prove them erroneous in their predicton -- or at least very premature. Not unlike Ravi Batra -- The Great Depression of 1990. Those who have followed Davidson, Rees-Mogg, Batra, etc. have missed out on an opportunity of a lifetime ( the bull market ) , and, just like "Miniver Cheevy, child of scorn, grew lean while he assailed the seasons; he wept that he was ever born, and he had reasons." ( Edwin Arlington Robinson ) .

Highrise is right that there is no specific time line, but rather a series of Danger Signs of Impending Deflation. Here are some:

A rising percentage of debt compared to nominal GNP.

A record of extraordinarily high returns in many forms of investment a decade or more ago.

Debt compounding faster than income.

A falling ratio of M-2 to the monetary base.

A falling ratio of money supply to debt.

A money supply ( M-3 ) more than twelve times greater than the Treasury's stock of monetary gold.

Overextended collateral.

Foreign debt defaults.

Financial scandals.

Each of these had a few hundred words to follow so this is just the most skeletal of what was covered.

One last question for tonight and that is: Why in earth does not IDT use DDT instead of TNT to collect specimens? Huh?

Cause its more fun.

I've been watching this indicator for the past few days. All the buying is coming from inside Japan. I doubt very much that ordinary investors are rushing to their broker to buy shares.
They are more likely scrambling to withdraw funds.
I have to conclude that the current market level support is fixed artificially by the Gov't.

Foreigners net sellers of Japan stock via 9 firms

TOKYO, Nov 27 ( Reuters ) - Orders placed by foreign investors through nine foreign securities houses before the start of stock trading on Thursday showed a net selling stance of 11.2 million shares, market sources said.

Foreign investors placed 26.9 million shares of sell orders against 15.7 million shares of buys.

Falling commodity prices. But note that a rising nominal price of gold
implies that either the crunch is still ahead or it is already passed. At
the end of past credit cycles, the real price of gold has bottomed at or near the end of the credit cycle, then risen sharply.

Maybe we should be happy that gold has bottomed, this could be the end of a credit cycle.

For those of you interested in Barrick Gold ( ABX ) trading today, volume on the TSE today for ABX was 2 Million shares but I don't think shorts were beginning to cover just yet!!!

( IE The stock has been shorted at 11.7 Million shares and over 10 Million for quite some time...gold will have hit bottom when short traders cover this stock )

There will come a point when people ( ***the professional gold-price fixers*** ) will want to book their profits to produce their end-of-year accounts and reports. That's not to say that if shorts were covered in the third week of December that they won't be taken out again in January.

Analysts tell me that top brass they've talked to in Placer Dome and Barrick say 1st quarter of 1998 will be a telling time for Gold. The European Monetary Union will firm up its stance on whether to hold gold to back the Eurodollar. Forget about what England just said recently about this subject. It could be the "PROFESSIONALS" want to bring the price of gold down in order to transfer as much gold in order to back the Eurodollar at such a low price of gold. Then they will begin to price fix gold at very much higher levels. HEY, I'm still a conspiracy theory, sorry if that hurts.

The game is unfolding as it should. One currency after another is failing. The dam is leaking. Patience is the key. IF you have not bought in to gold stocks/options/index options/futures, then wait! The interregnum is here, but it will take time.

The Canadian dollar having problems due to Asian currency problems? Oh my!, as the EBullient one would say! :- ) )

When will the dollar have its' come uppens? Tick-tock, tick tock... and that's no watch ticking away either........

Looking the chart someone posted on gold price yesterday it struck me that each time a new decline in gold started, the rate of decline accelerates compared to the last drop. I looked at some data on the Toronto 300 Gold and Silver Index and found the following. The index peaked 5/31/96 at 13,199, had its 97 high in Late February this year at 11578, was at 9000 just two months ago in late September, and closed at 5774 today. Thats a 12% decline from 5/96 to 2/97, a 22% decline from 2/97 to 9/97, and a 36% decline from 9/97 to 11/97. In all we are down 56.25% since 5/31/96. At the present rate of decline the TSE 300 will reach 0.0 sometime in 1998, probably around March.

Enjoying posts! Action almost too much to bear. Q. Is the shorting of
gold a form of counter attack? and what is the ratio of forward gold sold
to spot gold per month. Although we hear endless doom & gloom
about what value gold has in current times the action in gold suggests
something on a grander scale is happening. Sparring partners could be
at present sent to their respective corners. Buyers of forward gold
have been forced to hold by the shorts. With gold suffering from
inflation in Asia it now costs them 2X their currency to buy it. Japan
and China excluded. Korea has 2X as many won worth of gold than it started with. This also suggests with hindsight that certain people
knew of forthcoming Asian crisis and gave favored assistance to Korea.
Sorry about these confused ramblings, but it looks to me as if US
is saying; u buy gold and sell bonds , we take home our bat'n'ball.
If it costs 2X as much to own gold in parts of asia and these countries
have bought forward and then decide they dont want in $US then obviously
everyone suffers. That gold which was set aside as forward would get
shorted and wouldnt the buyer of forward gold pay a penalty.
If you can get threw this comments appreciated. Brain gone numb trying
to unravel arguments in favour of mobile phone digital technology.

EARL YOU STILL ALIVE?....been trying to E-mail ya keeps coming back
Kev

Friday could be the time to finally go long .Amen.Gold that is.

Tantalus Rex:
There is no conspiracy, they are just conducting business as usual. It is obvious that to get the job done, they will do what ever must happen. It is the naive that call it a conspiracy. Good post.

Happy Turkey day to all U.S. Folks. Don't forget to work off that excessive food intake on Thursday by shopping for those 'deals' on Friday. Should be plenty of Asian import material for retail sale at good prices... This is the good side of this currency debacle? I think I can wait for the 'down' side.....

Happy Thanksgiving..................

Abraham Lincoln's 1863 Thanksgiving Proclamation --

It is the duty of nations as well as of men to own their dependence upon the overruling power of God; to confess their sins and transgressions in humble sorrow, yet with assured hope that genuine repentance will lead to mercy and pardon; and to recognize the sublime truth, announced in the Holy Scriptures and proven by all history, that those nations are blessed whose God is the Lord.

We know that by His divine law, nations, like individuals, are subjected to punishments and chastisements in this world. May we not justly fear that the awful calamity of civil war which now desolates the land may be a punishment inflicted upon us for our presumptuous sins, to the needful end of our national reformation as a whole people?

We have been the recipients of the choisest bounties of heaven; we have been preserved these many years in peace and prosperity; we have grown in numbers, wealth and power as no other nation has ever grown.

But we have forgotten God. We have forgotten the gracious hand which preserved us in peace and multiplied and enriched and strengthened us, and we have vainly imagined, in the deceitfulness of our hearts, that all these blessings were produced by some superior wisdom and virtue of our own. Intoxicated with unbroken success, we have become too self-sufficient to feel the necessity of redeeming and preserving grace, too proud to pray to the God that made us.

It has seemed to me fit and proper that God should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged, as with one heart and one voice, by the whole American people. I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November as a day of Thanksgiving and praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the heavens.

( signed ) A. Lincoln
October 3, 1863

all- DAMN are any of you guys and gals still SOBER?!
Tally "OUCH" Ho

HAPPY TURKEY DAY! BUY WESTERN AREAS, WARSY AND DURBAN DEEP, DOORY i THINK!
HICKUP HICHUP HICHUP

PS-Boy them shorts whipped my [our] a-- today!

Hipshot, you are right. I am in charge of our 401 ( k ) plan with our firm. The employees of the firm blindly invest money predominently in a growth fund or small cap fund. The money is kind of frozen in there. I get a lot of laughs when I mention that most of my 401 ( k ) plan funds are in a gold based mutual fund. Psychologically people keep thinking the markets are a safe place to be with their money. They are used to huge rates of retun on their investments over the past few years. It is this euphoria which is being juxtaposed against hard market reality and the crashing currencies oversease. The euphoria will lose in this battle and I don't believe that it will be very long before that happens. Although I ahve taken a huge whipping this year in my portion of the 401 ( k ) plan I still think this is the best long range place to have my money.

As far as when thew bottom comes for gold..as someone sadi in here last night "it aint over till the fat lady sings"..well the fat lady singing will be when the US government announces that they will be selling a portion of their gold ( or the option for someone to sell it on paper ) ..when this event takes place..then indeed the fat lady has bellowed at the top of her lungs..and this brutal, long term bear market will have reached its bottom....so it shall and must be..Happy Thanksgiving my friends

What is the actual mechanism involved for the gold price going up or down? Is it by formula? Based on numbers of buy/sell requests?

+307.40 +1.92%
They must be using all of those US$ to buy stock in the market - no one else is.

My father why did you do this to me ?You keep buying Gold and "What happens Go Down Go down"I needed skates for Christmas but dad said only if Gold goes up .Help my farther is not so smart?How long can he loose money?

themissinglink__A:
I have no idea, but have wondered the same thing. Is there an actual public exchange or is this handled with phone calls from some guys cellar in London. No one ever mentions who the buyers are. I assumed it is being run by the brother of the guy who handles the Nikkei. +364.54 +2.27%

I really need help...i admit to being somewhat of an amateur when it comes to economic theory so please answer me this.....

If goverments gain by the hidden confiscation of wealth by inflation......what is gained by delation and by what means do we arrive at thus?????????