Central Banks mobilized their gold reserves either by leasing ( conservative ) or selling ( aggressive ) in order to put the money into ramping their respective equity and bond markets as need be. The CB creed is to supply stability, liquidity, and order to the markets. This ability to manipulate the markets using their gold reserves does this quite nicely. Selling their own gold short and controlling the gold price downward also raises nice capital for equity and bond market manipulation. Should a CB worry about covering their own shorts? Who else could have taken such enormously large positions?

Notice the gold market drops every time the stock market rises? High correlation, right?

Therefore, if I am right, the CB's are not manipulating the gold market per se, they just need the money to protect other markets. Never heard the Asian CB's talk about selling their gold reserves. I guess they were not let in on the party.

The World Gold Council should switch their marketing focus from jewelry consumption to investment opportunities at todays rock bottom prices. That would be the turnaround we all want. It would put an end to the Central Banks self fulfilling prophesy. A trickle would turn into a raging river.

Steve

It is not the function of our government to keep
the citizen from falling into error; it is the function
of the citizen to keep the government from falling
into error.

U.S. Supreme Court Justice

Robert H. Jackson,

1950

All:
Composed and sent an email to M.Skousen, who I had subscribed to until recently. The primary idea was this. Being a gold investor, and observing the state of affairs with gold, I have asked the question I consider of utmost importance. Think about the ultimate impact of gold being discredited and devalued. We of many faiths and backgrounds have been indoctrinated from day 1 about the merits of gold. It has been the ultimate achievement symbol ( gold medal, etc., etc. ) , awarded only to the very best of us all. That has been engrained in so many for so long as a baseline of values for civilized man, that is an integral part of our culture and value system. To corrupt this and replace with nothingness is too much to ask or demand. We are stretching and pushing the envelope beyond the ability of man to adjust. This takes time. Lots of time. To shake the core of man's beliefs about value in a world on which we still depend for daily sustenance will disrupt the entire system. Whisk us away to a strange place and we can adjust, but shake our roots and we wither.
Alternatively, consider the gold price to be the barometer of change. Low pressure ( price ) signifies an approaching storm, which will presently right the imbalance, but in that course wreak havoc.
A philisophical and poetic interpretation, placed late at night, so as not to impede more factual input.

To have faith in God is one thing. To have faith in politicians and bankers is a completely different thing all together.

AZAU-- your philosophical and poetic interpretations posted late at night ( mid-afternoon our time ) are welcome at any time. Hope we see many more. Cheers from downunder.

"We have rights, as individuals, to give as much of our own money as we please to charity; but as members of Congress we have no right so to appropriate a dollar of public money." --David Crockett,
Member of Congress, 1827-31, 1832-35



"He who tampers with the currency robs labor of its bread." --Daniel Webster, 15 Mar 1837


"Pro is good and Con is bad right? So if this country is based on the constitution, wouldn't it be better if it were based on prostitution?"
- Eric Smythe


When you cannot trust your eyes and ears, you must hope your feet know which way to run. - Hadje, Johney Quest - the Real Adventures



The beatings will continue until morale improves.
-Anonymous

No one thinks for themselves anymore. The talking heads float this or that idea and the markets go in that direction. How many investors really understand the implications of CPI, money supply, debt crisis, gold price, etc.? The market makers start to move in a certain direction and the herd follows. You never hear dissenting talking heads. Large security firm goes out of business, good ( housecleaning ) or bad ( systemic ) ?

The central banks have been kicking our goldbug butts in the marketing game. While we are wringing our hands about why the markets are not moving according to fundamental market laws, the central banks are floating ideas and MAKING THE MARKET which benefits their agenda. One possible agenda is the one I just posted a few minutes ago. Maybe that is not completely accurate but the fact remains that the central banks are marketing the idea of low investment value for gold.

Instead of sitting here passively, we have the ability through the World Gold Council to fight back, CREDIBLY! I am not sure if many of you view the World Gold Coucil as any more than fluff but they do very professional marketing campaigns in the jewelry industry which are well placed in womens consumer magazines. DeBeers made diamonds the most prized gem. This is not historically the most prized gem but no other gem has a focused and coherent marketing campaign like diamonds.

I know that when I advertise in local papers I sell that item. People are looking to be fed information. People need to be fed the kind of information found here on Kitco that I see argued so passionately. People really would buy into the idea of bullion as security. It would be self fulfilling as the price began to rise.

We might also find that this kind of marketing campaign would make the citizens question their central bankers selling their national security. The Swiss and the Germans certainly do not appear to give their central banks a mandate to sell THEIR gold.

E-mail the World Gold Council about this.
info@gold.org

Steve

G'day to the night shift,Auratious. Good quote from Davey Crockett. Wasn't he one of those that died at the Alamo?? Don't know how much of him is Walt Disney myth and how much fact-- but I believe Davey Crockett would have made a good Aussie. Distrust of government, politicians ( although he became one ) and a rugged individualist.

Have you noticed how genteel this site is now?? The Yobbos have gone, but, unfortunately the alter-egos are also no longer with us. I miss Bernatz etc. BART -- can you devise a way that multiple personalities can post at this site??? We miss some of our schizoid friends.

Wow!! My head is practically spinning from posts of last several hours hear.

Tolerant! That stuff about IMF conspiracy has turned me into a believer. It fits with so much of what is happening in SE Asia etc. I can understand what Mahathir is griping about. I don't see in this much hope for gold, however. Those in power at IMF etc. know that gold has to be debunked in the public eye so that everyone will trust in the currency created and controlled by the IMF. No wonder gold is going down in the face of financial turmoil!! The CB's have the resources to trash gold, and the motivation!!

As Another says, however, the Asians ( especially Chinese ) may get in the way here. They are not part of the IMF establishment, and may like gold better than Western paper. I expect India would like gold better than Western paper also.

Where does all this lead? Sorry, Puetz, I don't agree with your forecast for a stockmarket meltdown. Stagflation, maybe. As is happening in Japan now, and in the US probably, the Western world including Japan and all IMF client states are getting hosed with liquidity from IMF, and ultimately from the US Fed. That's how they stay in power. Right, Tolerant?

Stalder: Opinion only. Trying to elicit a response from others. However, in recent discussions with a prominent pm firm, it was stated that Platinum should trade within the $450 - $500 range in '98. Hardly spectacular to what we have recently seen, but not too bad. I have a gut level feeling we will see Platinum @ $350 before we see it at $450, but for no fundamental reason. Markets and the pm's just don't seem to be following logical patterns.
Gold is apparently having a drag down effect on Platinum. Would like to see more commentary on this realtionship to Platinum but alas, it is apparently not so favored a subject on thjis site. This lack of much interest can be taken as an overall indicator of general public lack of awareness of Platinum's 'real' worth.

Just a lurker from another group. You are asking the question; when will it end? I think the central banks can continue to short gold until some event causes the shorts to cover. I trade metals and grains and I covered my gold shorts Wednesday. The Asian crisis is not over by any means and is rapidly moving around the world markets. The weak sovereignties will take the first hits but eventually all will get beaten up pretty bad. The traders I talk to have been thinking gold is going to $285, but most have covered with this liquidity problem. With all the current bailouts and the future bailouts around the corner, the hard asset markets should do well. Massive creation of bad money will eventually take it's toll on paper investments. I'm looking for some big Japanese bank failure to trigger the short covering. We'll see.

KCT

Nick@C

I know what you mean mate, It's like being at a posh restaurant and needing to fart.

Bowlderise: to remove passages or words regarded as indecent from ( a play, an novel, kitco etc. ) expergate. After 19th Cent. Thomas Bowdler who published an expergated edition of Shakespeare. {

I see this massive tonnage of gold in the Veneroso report and the WSJ as creating a huge problem. There are some major obstacles to the CBs pulling this one off.

The IMF is criminal, plain and simple. It is like the Superfund of the financial world.

I really think we are very close to a meltdown, I really do.

By the way I respect Dr. Mathir. He is more of an American than printin clinton.

The idea that the central bankers of the world can convince people that gold is no longer a currency is not likely to happen. This is a blowoff top in paper assets. It could survive a bit longer, but the chances are looking worse and worse as all these short term loans come due. In the end, gold will survive as the currency of last resort, as well as any hard asset which produces or holds value. Five thousand years of history are not likely to be discredited by a short term manipulation.

KCT

a good evening to ya...

Platinum is likely moving lower on Russian sales. These people are broke and they know it. What would you do? The world is going to cash. It's only a matter of time. The global charade in currencies is coming to an end. The developed countries have a vested interest in keeping the scheme going but there is a limit to easy credit. Eventually the bubble will burst and the bank runs will start.

KCT

Nick@C- you know your Texan history my lad. Had some good Alamo URLs, gone like the Texas Tornados.

Tolerant1, you should not be suprised, the IMF has been manoevering itself into becoming the lender of last resort, at least since Camdessus became director.

The real issue is can the IMF avoid moral hazard?


This article is from The Freeman, April, 1989.


There are indications that the Fund may be currently evolving beyond its debt management role. It is clear from recent statements by Fund Director Camdessus that the IMF desires a more central role in international economic policy coordination and management of exchange rates. In fact, in recent years the IMF's annual meeting has increasingly come to serve as a focal point for the major industrialized countries' finance ministers and heads of central banks to meet and discuss economic coordination.

However, until now the U.S. has sat "in the driver's seat" so to speak, because of the premier position enjoyed by the dollar among world currencies. The IMF, supported by several industrialized countries, advocates replacing the current American preeminence in the global economic management process with the international oversight provided by the Fund. In order to achieve this, Director Camdessus advocates that the dollar be replaced as the world's reserve currency by the IMF-issued SDRs.


http://www.self-gov.org/freeman/8904ewer.shtml

Total Recall , JFK , Terminator2 ,Exorcist ,Brigadoon ,Right Stuff , Twister and what do they have in common "Entertainment and the format is DVD" So Salvation Army here I come Videos galore!!!.Now the technology has changed and for the better.I sit and wonder about the Gold I might own or will own to who's benefit?Some struggling miner?,Sticky-fingered promoter?,Desolate oblivious son of a stockbroker vermin ? Right Stuff NOW THAT'S A GREAT MOVIE.Good night and Happy Trails All.

Yesterday Crystal Ball replyed to LGB about when the casheer at your local PigglyWiggly sees "real money" they will fall all over themselves to accomidate you. Today as I pursued to raise the stock of a favorite discount store I watched as person after person in front of me and on either side did their best to improve my equity position. ALL were plastic. I arrived at my casheer and after scanning my modest purchases I presented 100.00 american. This flustered her, pore thang! There was not enough cash in the register to make change and after getting some 20's she presented me with my change. After 12 years of education ( I know the girl ) thousands of dollars of technology and her and a supervisor, they got the change wrong! The way I see it when things get worse, stupidity will not disappear.

( 1 ) Tolerant1@21:43 "But Camdessus slyly retaliated ..."
Thats GOOD ( in print, Camdessus SLYLY ) it slithers nicely...
Thats BAD ( looks like Rubin and AG move to the good guys column
for the purposes of my study.

My view, I know this will come as a shock to you, is somewhat different.
Im willing to entertain the notion that all bankers might not be Satan incarnate and possibly a few ( probably VERY few ) have the Right Stuff.
I postulate that to bankers the world is ALREADY one, and my a list bankers + ( G30, et.al. ) ,would like to save/reform the financial system, i.e. a global gold backed currency.
Do you remember that not to long ago AG was publicly saying the it was
time for the WB/IMF to go ( circa 93? 94? ) and then everyone did an
about face....interesting yes? But Thank You! I appreciate it. ( Really ) .

Spent some time in a German Financial chat room. ( Frankly, you folks are about 10 floors up ) . But picked up this comment about Pms:

Gold 296 $. Oder: Lebt Dr. Reitmeier noch ?
Gesendet von Dr. Black am 28. November 1997 um 15:35:58:
Bei diesen Preisen kann sich selbst der kleine Mann den Ar... vergolden lassen.

Loosely translated it says: Gold at 296! At these prices even the little guy can have his posterior gilded!

I think that's a buy...

KCT and bej-- welcome to Kitco. KCT-- we need more trader's opinions on this site, mate, as all the philosophers are goin' to the poor house. The Kitco bread-line welcomes your insight on AVID etc. trader's opinions on markets ( especially you-know-what ) . bej-- platinum will suffer if fewer cars are made -- which looks a dead certainty right now. But, who knows. Read today that Aussie cars are selling in record numbers. Maybe a few wise people are trading their share market gains for tangibles ( cars ) .

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Five Year Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpmlt.htm
120 market days Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm120.htm
30 market days Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm30.htm
10 days Hourly Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm
PS
AZAU ...... Enjoy you posts!

Crystal Ball ( s ) - I was reviewing your XAU chart that you posted and commented so highly about. Someone else ( not sure who ) was also rather optimistic regarding the same. "Island reversals...holding it's own...not going down further....is a positive sign........etc".

Well.......I must add.........and this is purely technical........

I called a doctor AND a priest. Your patient is terminal...............Last rights are in order.........klunk...

away......to the morgue

mournful

Will Taiwan save the day? Will the World Wide meltdown be averted locally? Go here: http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/nov28_tai.html

EB-If you catch the bottom mmmmm?Dont tell Ted !!The market can't handle all that Veggie Money.Happy Trails

OK-- how many of you Yanks have forgotten to turn your lights off!!

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth?imgsize=320&opt=-z?=36&ns=North&lon=78&ew=West&alt=36&img=learth.evif

Now yer talkin man!Not only do I worry that Gold and Silver will never again be readily accepted as a medium of monetary exchange, but that even paper dollars have become passe'!! It's only a matter of time before they saddle us with some kind of electronic money, digits, units, whatever, then you poor Goldbugs will REALLY be up "S" creek! Remember, the biblical "mark of the beast" 666, was a mark on one's hand or forehead ( scannable? The technology and proposals for such are all around us, several articles on this already ) ) without which one could neither buy or sell or trade. Electrocash. I don't want to see it happen, but it's inevitable. So many times these days I get blank stares when I try to pay for something with a c note, as Kahunna said.

Not long ago, I tried to pay for my kids Burger at the mall with a $2.00 bill. The cashier went nuts! Called security over cause they thought I was passing funny money! The security guy had never seen a $2.00 bill either! I thought those lame idiots were gonna arrest me for awhile there. Think what would have happened if I would have tried to pay with a Silver Walking Liberty half...or a little Gold tenth Oz. AE and asked for change eh? I'd be doin time right now.....

Your 297 was penetrated.........

Care to venture another guesstimate?? Happier Trails ;- )

away......from catching bottoms and picking tops

-oh-my

We don't use lights here Nick, only candles and fat lamps. 6000 years of history can't be wrong!

V.I.Lenin liked to say that in communist society gold will be

used to make toilets.He meant by this that communist society

does not need gold, symbol of CAPITALISM. He actually meant

that government will take care of every needs of every person,

no CAPITALISM type tymoney needed.

The U.S.S.R. was established with this idea in mind

and the U.S.S.R. is gone.

There are many reasons, but one of the most important ones is that

Soviet rouble was always a piece of paper, "backed" by just

a theory of SOCIALISM. When some serious payments were made outside

Soviet Union, it was always something material: gold, oil, HARD

currency.

All I want to say is that history should not be ignored,

along with the power of the gold, which I believe is the

ONLY REAL MONEY, just because gold is independent.

Assuming the CB's do not practice theory of socialism/communism,

I am kind of curious if this recent drop

in gold price is to some extent connected with the future

relationship between EURO and $US.

Any comments?

Charts on Quote.com worth having alook at.
PREM, TICK, TRIN, INX and SPZ7. Look at 30 & 60 minute charts.
There was a rapid sell-off on the SP500 in the last half hour of trading on Friday.
The premium has fallen below the physical. INX ( SP500 ) closed at 955.4 with the SPZ7 ( globex ) closing at 954.9.
These indices kept falling once the Dow had closed and the SPZ7 kept on falling after INX had closed.
This is unusual to say the least and the SPZ7 will be worth watching on Sunday night to see if they correct this imbalance.
Tick closed at -427 giving a bearish signal.

Somebody wanted out for the weekend or some bearish news came through before the close.

One comment to make about Dow 9000 or 10,000.
AG has already indicated that he does not wish the Dow to break into another significant upleg. He stopped the last breakout on the 8th Oct.
Maybe factors have changed and he will let another up-leg start, but as we all know that is only putting off the inevitable.
If another upleg is engaged T/A points to it being fast and furious.
A real mania as the masses rush to get aboard and will pay any price for the ticket to riches.
This sort of behaviour will definately lead to a crash and no soft landing.

Interesting that AG is due to give a speech this coming Tuesday.
On the aniversary of his last "Irrational Exuberance" speech.
What words of wisdom will be spoken this time?

Nick@C
Gidday, You should start training your Rotties to enjoy the taste of Pollies rather than our indigenous wildlife. You have plenty of brainless pollies living just down the road after all.
WMCWMI, Looks like the best bet.
Also WMCWDF good for a play.

You have the wrong coast..........here is the real deal! ( I'm waving at ya', see me?? )

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth?imgsize=320&opt=-z?=36&ns=North&lon=119.143&ew=West&alt=36&img=learth.evif

We are more 'earthy' here. Candles and lotions and such. That reminds me........back to the rubdown.....

away....to turn out the lights

conservingenergyandmakinglovenotwarohmy!

EB-Did I say Dec?Sorry "Think" April.That computer is acting again, time to get one of those new 486 poccessors.

I've just gone back to read through all the posts...

So there is NO HOPE? There is no small, teensy-tiny, little
diad that gives a hoot about anybody but themselves?

EVERYONE in a position of importance is a moral bankrupt?

If you were faced with the ENORMOUS problems the WORLD ( not just US, whose problems are bad enough God knows ) WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

Could you put on another hat for a bit and postulate what OTHER
people of GOOD WILL might do to try and ameloriate the terrible wrongs
of the last years and lay a foundation for a better, more sane,
safe world tomorrow?

Is it all over?

Why?

Hmmm, Gold Bears as Commie pinko's! Love it! Must be wanna them conspiracy things! Course Lenin hated dollars too...

Not so poor, eh boys?? Good show.......

away.......for she calls........oh YES!



LGB
Please don't laugh to hard.
http://www.iglobal.net/pub/swtrans/option.html

Hey Nick - you must be an Aussie. I've been trading for about 15 years. Lost my ass early, have recovered over the last ten years. I've been lurking around here looking for more economic analysis. Good stuff here. Everybody here seems to have the right idea about money. If I can offer a bit of advice concerning trading it would be what I've learned the hard way. 'Don't fight the tape'. Long term you may be right, short term you get wiped out. 'Trade futures short term, options shorter term'. If you can't sit in front of the screen all day, options will kill you. This was a very tough lesson to learn. Futures are the best way to leverage money. 'Forget fundamental trading, trade technically'. Chart trading is what everybody does. Don't trade if you don't understand the technical side of the market. The technical side is the psychology of the market. Market sentiment is everything. Nothing else matters.

Being a hard money advocate, it has been difficult to accept the current situation. However, the markets will adjust. Gold is a good buy here if you are not going to leverage your position. I will likely go long the gold market when it appears the shorts are covering.

KCT

Europe banks topped Japan's Korea exposure at end
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971124/europe_banks_topped__1.html
But the combined exposure of European banks to South Korea exceeded that of Japanese banks by 40 percent.
Japanese banks' exposure amounted to $24.3 billion, or 24.3 percent of total loans to South Korea at end-1996, while European banks' exposure was $33.8 billion, or 33.8 percent, BIS figures showed.

Bank Montreal says Asian exposure limited
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/bank_montreal_bmo_to_2.html

You're reading the wrong posts SDRer. There's hope all around us. It's only the Gloom and Doom Moron's who see life so cynically. I've been preaching a bright future here all along, in spite of any financial crises that may arise.

What GoldBug fanatics don't realize, is the resilience, strength, creativity, and drive of the human spirit and what it can accomplish in a country with resources and a DEmocracy. They see nefarious plots and conniving behind every politician, I see 200 million citizens who will vote out any bastard who screws up too badly and put a new group in power. One man, one vote, doesn't totally eliminate nefarious influence, but it prevents it's total take over.

I see the greatest perios of prosperity of all time, taking place in our lifetimes ( already has in fact, the past few decades ) . I see the greatest human achivements of all time ( all taking place in our lifetimes ) . I see a future where a free people will continue to solve the difficult problems that face us, as they have for 200 years. I see the most amazing technological, socialogical, medical, scientific, etc etc achievements of all time, all having taken place in our lifetimes.

GoldBugs miss all this and wallow in excrement of their own making. true, the wise man learns from former errors and prepares himself, but at the same time living life to the fullest, and able to truly see and appreciate all the positive as well. GoldBugs see it all as a sham, the productive in society see our achievemnts as genuine.

I'll continue to preach a positive message here, because we ARE the government and society. It's not "Us and them", it's US ARE THEM. This is what these poor misguided GoldBugs have failed to understand. OK, the wife beckons......in a rather alluring ...Ow Ohhh ouch Ummmph OK honey I won't tell....

Night ( with a smile on his face......cheer up you Gloomy Goldbugs.. )

IF you are bringing in a nusmismatic coin to the united states you can either declare it as the legal tender value or the nusmeimatic value. It makes no difference until you leave. If you declare the value as face but leave the country with proceeds from the numismatic value you will owe taxes on the difference. If you fail to declare upon entering and they find a stash of dollars on you they are subject to confiscation. And then the burden of proof is on you to provide details of where the cash has come from. This is a CIVIL procedure so your fifth ammendment rights are out the door! If you decide to transfer the proceeds of your coin sale and the value is over 10,000 dollars the IRS and DEA are informed and a copy of the transaction is wired to them immedeatly. If the value is between 3,000 and 9999.00 the IRS and DEA are informed within 3 days. Any action a bank teller feels is suspect is to be reported to the IRS and DEA immedeatly. I personally dont feel there would be a problem if you threw a coupple of coins in your boot and then left the states with the cash in your checked baggage. If it is larger I would fly to Mexico and then get a flight to TJ, Juarez or Larado get off the plane and walk across the border. To leave just reverse the process. There are some dangers involved with either scheme. Just a matter of degreees. You could be placed in a cell until things are straightened out and taxes paid or your money confiscated or be robbed, shot and left for dead.

OOPS God was HERE!!! ( L ) ord ( G ) od of ( B ) ethlehem.

Don't know about Lenin hating dollars.....

Also no conspiracy theory....

But the fact is that rouble was never backed by the gold,
and it is in the toilet, even now, after USSR is gone.

Russian Central Bank tries to build confidence in their paper
again by buying gold. However, they printed too much paper
to back up, so Russian population prefers to use $US's for now..

Go in a grocery store in Mexico. Away from the border or turista areas. The checker may not like pesos may perfer dollars or even gold/silver. But you want that pack of Winstons, shell out the pesos!

SDRer_A: Your 23:54 post yesterday. Thanks for a good chuckle. I have banked with my quotable quotes.

EB: Ur 02:13 site of above puts things into perspective. Great Viewing.
What has happened to Strad? Haven't seen much of him here lately. Ingotwetrust - ultimately! ;- )

LBG2_A: Your may be right about Electromoney on the horizon but my ( real ) money ;- ) says that when the next real panic ( not the small fry we have had lately ) comes along a lot of the people who hold a lot of the funny money ( you know, that paper governments tell us to use ) will do the historical thing and turn to the yellow metal. How great this move will be remains to be seen. I am much more a cynic about human nature IN A CRISIS SITUATION than you are. Sure, there are always some heros, but the norm will be to cut and run ( in circles ) and buy gold. And once the move comes, why remember the lines buying in 1980 at 850? For some insurance, I still like some AU.

From around $480/oz. down to less than $300/oz., the futures and options
players have done a VERY good job. I give them every credit for a job
well done. NOW let's just sit back and watch. What took 10 years will
all be un-done in a very short timeframe...the market price is WRONG,
WRONG, WRONG!!

I posted this yesterday while you were sleeping. This is time stamped just after the Friday close and could have been available earlier. Could this be the reason for the S&P activity you spotted after the Dow had closed?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971128/russia_economy_2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971128/brazil_malan_says_no_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/11/29/international_news/koreabanks_1.html

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971128/business/stories/crisis_1.html

From Bloomberg:

IMF May Sell Bonds for First Time to Raise Funds, Analysts Say

The International Monetary Fund might consider selling bonds for the first time to meet its expanding role as the lender of last resort for the world's troubled economies, money managers and traders said. Such a move would give the IMF additional resources to meet the growing need for money to assist faltering economies in Asia and the developing world, they said. Bond sales would require no additional approval from IMF member countries.

It's so good to hear from you, my beloved friend! Regarding our poor unfortunate patient, I've got the defibrillator right here just in case. He's got the I.V. fluids going, a dopamine drip, oxygen via face mask, and we're monitoring him very closely. I think he'll recover. But thank you for the fine sentiments and eulogy; I know how much you've loved him, and your concern is admirable. When he's ready to move out of intensive care, I'll let you know right away. By the way, the flowers are lovely.

Donald
That could well be what spooked them.
Fridays action was entirely normal up till that sell-off.
I haven't noticed the future go under the physical before.
Sundays globex action will tell us how concerned they are.
------------------------------
Local Cairns gossip.

Another major Japanese Co about to go under?
The biggest Japanese company in Cairns is sending their staff home, and looking at selling off their assets. They have obviously experienced a cash flow problem and feel the need to tighten their belts.

Somebody offered me some:
US Golden Eagle bullion coins and Britannia bullion coins.
What weights, purity, quality etc should I know about.
What should they be worth ( $Aus ) , and what other details should I watch out for with these coins.
This is all new to me. ( :o}}}}}}

RLM
Does that mean the IMF are broke too.

Ah, my dear Kahunna! What you say has much merit in these strange Estados Unidos. But then, the 19 year old illiterate at the Piggly Wiggly has not lived through "hard times", eh? Now, if you were in Malaysia, or China, or Africa, or India, or any country in the middle east, where even a four year old knows the difference between bogus paper and *real money*, the merchant would bite the coin, give you a big smile, and flourish his/her arms over the sacks of grain and spices, and be your best friend.

Donald
Bottom line from one of your earlier posts.
"It's just a matter of time ( until another financial failure ) ,"
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971128/business/stories/crisis_1.html

"The Tokyo Stock Exchange, in an effort to anticipate a short squeeze in the bond market, starts requiring its members to report long and short positions on key futures contracts on 10-year government bonds."

Asia Makes Wall Street Nervous
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971129/business/stories/stocks_13.html
In addition, several key pieces of economic data due the week of Dec. 1 -- the employment report and a manufacturing index -- could sway stocks, analysts said. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will speak at a dinner in New York.
"There is a good chance of further shocks to the financial system, probably from Japanese banks," Johnson said. "Also watch for an announcement by Japanese policy-makers of a rescue package for their economy. ... These are two surprises which could overwhelm all the ( U.S. ) numbers being released."

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971127/mexico_cetes_rate_up_1.html

OPEC Sets Hefty Output Hike to 27.5 Mln BPD
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971129/business/stories/opec_4.html
In contrast price hawk Iran and some others believed a rise in the official ceiling should be modest to shore up revenues, arguing a big rise would scare jittery markets into freefall.

RAY: Thanks for the helpful comments

AMERICA LAID WASTE reads the headline in the New York Times
Many oldtimers recall seeing or reading about Varietys October, 1929 headline: WALL STREET LAYS AN EGG...But This Time - It's Much Worse!

The time: sometime early in the 21st Century and there is "blood in the streets." Some will recall the riots that occurred in Detroit during World War II...or the riots in Watts and Newark during the 1960s ...or the bombing of the Murrah Office Building in Oklahoma City...But This Time---Its Much Worse!

People are literally prisoners in their own homes. No one dares venture out at night. Gangs bent on looting and mugging walk the streets. Those who can afford it hire bodyguards. Private citizens are taking the law into
their own hands...vigilantism is everywhere. Those few wealthy individuals who are still able to are fleeing the country and taking their gold with them...that is before the government prevents such activities. Some did that in the1930s...But This Time - Its Much Worse!

Money is now worthless. People are throwing paper money out the window creating a kind of "green snow." Kids in the street are playing games with the paper money...rolling it up into baseball-sized balls and throwing it at each other. Germany in the early 1920s was terrible...But This Time - Its Much Worse!

How did this all start? Although many did not realize it at the time, the seeds were sown in the late stages of the 20th Century...Many companies and governments, for that matter, were engaged in shoddy practices...covering up losses...improper loans...bookkeeping
activities...the use of derivitives...the list goes on. We saw a glimpse of it here in America with the Orange County debacle ( earlier bailouts to some of the major cities in this country ) ...But this was only the tip of the iceberg! We saw it in England, in Mexico, in Asia and the rest of the world. On each occasion...money was poured in either from other private companies..from countries such as the United States..or from the IMF..an
economic salve to cover the wounds. But This Time - Its Much Worse!

The world leaders are calmly reassuring us that there is nothing to worry
about..."Prosperity is just around corner." Its a temporary blip on the economic radar screen. But those savvy individuals know that the economic spiggot had been turned on and there is no stopping it...the printing presses are running 24-hours a day. Some are again drawing comparisons to Germany in the early 1920s..But This Time - Its
Much Worse!

The United States, although many did not realize it, was on the brink of economic, political and social disaster. Newspapers never mentioned it or buried it deep within their papers the fact that drug abuse had become rampant in our society...bankruptcies were increasing at an almost exponential rate..spousal abuse..child abuse...the breakup of
the family as we knew it..cheating..fraud...deceit...latent social, ethnic and religious differences .poorly educated youth who are ill-prepared for jobs in the workforce... ...ecomonic polarities and disparaties..latent social viruses in good times...outright, full-blown festering sores in bad. Weve heard about, possibly seen it before..But This Time - Its Much Worse!

I truly hope I do not live to see this ( Im in my 50s ) , but I predict it will
happen...AMERICA LAID WASTE.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971125/u_s_stock_fund_flows_1.html

Embattled Yasuda Trust Tries to Stop Rumors
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971129/business/stories/yasuda_1.html
This week, Yasuda Trust shares have fallen 40 percent and it was among many Japanese financial companies whose stocks took a painful dive in a market full of anxiety that more companiies may follow the fate of Yamaichi Securities Co. Ltd, which will close in the nation's biggest-ever postwar business failure.
Yasuda is in the same "Fuyo" corporate group with the nation's fourth-biggest brokerage, along with trading house Marubeni Corp., auto giant Nissan Motor Co. Ltd and leading Japanese bank Fuji Bank Ltd.
Yamaichi's end came after Moody's Investors Service cut its senior debt ratings twice in a 24-hour period.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971128/stock_funds_take_in_1.html

G'Day, Nick! Most happy to oblige...US Gold Eagles: tenth ounce=16.5mm, weight 3.393 gm, 91.67% gold ( 0.1 oz ) 5.33% copper, ) .3% silver; quarter oz=22 mm, 8.483gm, 91.67% gold ( 0.25 oz ) 5.33% copper, 0.3% silver; half-oz=27mm, 16.966gm, 91.67% gold ( 0.5oz ) 5.33%copper, 0,3% silver; one ounce=32.7mm, 33.931gm, 91.67% gold ( 1.0 oz ) , 5.33% copper, 0.3% silver

Britannias come in 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, and 1 oz sizes. Not sure of the exact fineness, diameters, composition, etc

http://www.theage.com.au:80/daily/971127/bus/bus15.html

Repeat from Nirvana.
http://www.nirv.com/communit/comment.htm
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The market finally caught on to one of the themes we have been discussing for several weeks - the Asian crisis. Quite a few people, including some whose opinion I respect very much, are making light of this crisis. I think it is very serious - at least for the stock market. The whole process of competitive devaluations and restriction of trade led to the Great Depression following another Great Expansion and Overvaluation. We have been witnessing competitive devaluations for some time now and the US, in spite of its prosperity, has now weighed in against the expansion of free trade. I learned long ago that just because it happened before does not mean it will happen again. However, just because we probably won't get a depression does not mean there will not be trouble. I previously said that the Asian crisis was a problem for two reasons: 1 ) it is deflationary, and 2 ) it will cause a shock to Japan's fragile financial structure. While we might economically ignore, say, Thailand, we cannot ignore Japan. ( Also, remember another of our long term themes is that our bonds held by the Japanese will come back to haunt the dollar and interest rates. ) The economic might of the US compared with anyone is ( as much as I hate the word, comes from having two teenagers ) awesome - we can withstand a lot. However, the stock market is overvalued and needs the best of all possible worlds to continue upwards. At a minimum, it will have to adjust to a world without Asian Tigers. The decline in the stock market today was attributed to a financial failure in Japan. What is happening is that the market is trying to determine if and when the best of all possible worlds can reappear. In the short term, the market is headed down, however, in the medium term, my three possibilities all still remain. In the short term, there is also risk of a breakdown. If you are trading from the long side, think about the risk you want to take and take appropriate measures. Forecasting a breakdown is impossible, however, any time the cycles are down, the market is at risk. When I gave my "go to cash" signal before the recent melt down, it was because 5 waves up had completed and cycles were down - too much risk. The meltdown did not have to happen then, it just did. Now is a smaller window, but one having the same characteristics as before.

Just picked up another shipment of XF ( extra fine ) $20 Libs ( TypeIII ) this a.m. Ahhh. There's nothing in the world quite like gold. N'est pas?

Crystal Ball
Any idea of the values for the respective weights.
The guy selling them claims that they're worth 500sf.
He is offering them at $80 Aus.

http://www.abcnews.com:80/sections/business/japan1127/index.html

With regard to the market in the US Eagles ( 1986-present ) :
The one ounce gold Eagles sell for 6 to 7 percent over spot.
The half ounce gold Eagles sell for 16 to 18 percent over spot.
The quarter ounce gold Eagles sell for 20 percent over spot.
The tenth ounce gold eagles sell for 30 percent or more over spot.
All are "brilliant uncirculated" and are bullion coins.

Politicians worldwide ( the enemies of gold ) , continually carp about GOLD HAS NO VALUE! Well, lets see if there is truth in their words!

Tell the victims of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, Brazil and now Japan, that they shouldn't own gold because it doesn't pay
interest. They would laugh at you. For several mornings thousands of Japanese investors lined up at the door of Yamaichi -- some hysterical -- demanding their money. Money they may or may not ever see again.

Excepting the Yen ( although its turn will inevitably come ) , the average currency devaluation in South East Asia is about 30% in terms of the US dollar AND A LITTLE LESS IN TERMS OF GOLD! The Japanese Yen has only a short reprieve, before it TOO will be forced into involuntary devaluation...

Consider recent financial revelations in the Land of the SETTING Sun:

There are growing rumors Japanese Banks non-performing loans now top US$1 TRILLION - thats a One, followed by 12 zeros! DO WE REALLY KNOW THE SIGNIFICANCE OF WHAT A TRILLION MEANS???? Lets put the Nippon non-performing loans of US$1 Trillion into perspective or reference point we all understand.

For the sake of our example, assume the Japanese may attempt to some way recover or amortize the loss of $1 Trillion at the rate of One Dollar per minute, ALL DAY LONG. How long would it take the Nippons to pull out of the non-performing loan hole?

WOULD YOU BE SURPRISED THAT IT WOULD TAKE APPROXIMATELY 2,000,000 YEARS! So you may rest assured there is no typo here, I will spell it out: T-W-O...M-I-L-L-I-O-N....Y-E-A-R-S!

Is there anyone out there who naively believes that this one will be pulled out of the fire WITHOUT MASSIVE DEBT CLEANSING THROUGH DEVALUATION VERSUS GOLD????

The financial Domino Effect has begun! ORACLE paints a GRIM picture of the chaos, turmoil, havoc of the financial crisis:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html

Insurance assets will shrink for the first time in 50 years. Companies will have to sell assets to meet negative cash flow. High risk of further bankruptcies. Policy holders are cashing in leading to downward spiral of stocks and properties as companies are forced to sell. The industry has it hopes on inflation and a weaker yen. That is what they will get.

Nick, assuming an $A is worth 70 cents ( US ) and a $US is worth $A 1.42857, then if gold is $US 297.00 /oz, a one ounce gold eagle should cost $297 X 1.06 ( say ) = $US 315.00 ( approx ) = $A 450.00 ( approx )

A half ouncer would cost ( 1/2 ) X ( 297 ) X ( 1.16 ) = $US 172.00 ( approx ) = $A 246.00 ( approx )

A quarter ouncer would cost ( 1/4 ) X ( 297 ) X ( 1.2 ) = $US 89 ( approx ) = $A 127.00 ( approx )

A tenth ouncer would cost ( 1/10 ) X ( 297 ) X ( 1.33 ) = $US 39.50 ( approx ) = $A 57.00 ( approx ) Hope this helps

Donald
This site could be good to keep an eye on.
http://www.moodys.com/

Also
Moody's ratings service.
http://www.moodys.com/cgi-bin/pr.exe
There seems a lot of negative downgradings.

Earlier Debt Surge Now Stifles East Asia
John Lonski, Moody's senior economist in New York
http://www.moodys.com/economic/ecoindex.htm
Of late, the IMF has been busy putting together rescue packages for financially troubled countries. Facilitating the provision of financial aid from the IMF has been the very low rate of inflation in the industrialized world which allows the major central banks to adhere to accommodative monetary policies. Ironically, the financial straits of some East Asian countries can be partly ascribed to the same flatness of tangible goods prices that makes the provision of liquidity easier for the worlds major central banks. The latest injections of financial liquidity by the IMF hint of faster global price inflation six to eighteen months hence.

Is the $A worth about 70 cents ( US ) ? Which coin was he trying to sell for $A 80 ?

Good Morning all. I see the Fed foreign holdings dropped by another $8 B this week. Interest rates are going to be on the rise without a doubt in my mind as liquidity is required in unparalleled amounts in Japan, S Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Eastern Europe, ....., you fill in the blanks.

Donald
re your 8:44 - Japan's Economy Stagnant

I like it how they say:
"The market's key barometer, the 225-share Nikkei average, ended the morning session up 143.55 points, or 0.86 percent, at 16,746.75."

Yet they don't mention what the Nikkei closed at,
At the end of the second session.
----------------------------------------------
Fiendbear
http://home.sprynet.com/sprynet/fiendbea/marketre.htm
Equity Inflows ( AMG ) : +$0.3 billion; prev week: -$1.1 billion
 four week avg: $5.0 billion
 for Oct: /$21.0 billion
 for Sep: /$25.8 billion
 for Aug: /$14.0 billion
 for Jul: /$26.6 billion
 for Jun: /$16.6 billion
 for May: /$20.1 billion
 for Apr: /$15.7 billion
 for Mar: /$10.5 billion
 for Feb: /$18.5 billion
Worst inflows in a long time.

Crystal Ball
I will have to ask exactly what he is selling.
He wrote;
----------------------------------
Do you like gold.
For sale:
Goldkontrakt's for "US GoldenEagle Bullion coins
or "Britannia Bulion coins.
Each worth sFr 500.-
Sale each for only $A80
-------------------------------------------
$A is approx 68cents.
Thanks for the info.

Given the Japanese propensity to save and the failures of their financial institutions, what is the effect likely to be on retail gold purchases there?

THE AGE, Melbourne Online - by Russell Skelton ( Tokyo ) - excerpts:

Japan's Prime Minister, Mr Ryutaro Hashimoto, yesterday officially cut adrift failing Japanese financial institutions when he indicated that his Government would protect depositors - but NOT the nation's debt-ridden banks.

Mr Hashimoto's comments coincided with the collapse of another second tier bank - the Tokuyo City Bank - under the weight of 58.8 billion yen ( $673 million ) worth of non-performing loans in failed real estate ventures.

The governor of the Bank of Japan, Mr Yasuo Matsushita, predicted that Tokuyo's closure could result in substantial losses. "The BOJ inspection of the bank found that it had a capital surplus, but the bank will likely have a larger amount of irrecoverable loans," he said.

Vronsky NOTE: The last statement by the BOJ clearly means it hasnt the FOGGIEST NOTION of what is going on! But its BAD, real BAD!

Part of the reason for Tokuyo's collapse was the steady withdrawal of savings by depositors in recent weeks. It is the fourth institution to fail this month, following the collapses of Sanyo Securities, the Hokkaido Takushoku Bank and Yamaichi Securities - Japan's fourth biggest securities house - which closed on Monday with liabilities of 3.24 trillion yen.

Rumors about which financial institutions might next join the financial scrap heap intensified after results were published showing 13 OF JAPAN'S 19 MAJOR BANKS - EXCLUDING THE FAILED HOKKAIDO TAKUSHOKU BANK - WILL REPORT MASSIVE LOSSES THIS FISCAL YEAR.

The banks are planning to write off 7.7 trillion yen worth of non-performing loans this year and another 1.6 trillion yen by the
March close of the fiscal year. BAD DEBTS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE A STAGGERING 16.6 TRILLION YEN.

Vronsky NOTE: The STAGGERING 16.6 TRILLION YEN is equivalent to US$130 Billion -- By Whom and How will these staggering losses ever be paid back?!

Much of yesterday's speculation focused on the Yasuda Trust, which was downgraded by the Standard & Poor's rating agency to junk bond status, and Daiwa Securities which has been accused of illicit "tobashi" deals.

... as many as one third of Japan's financial institutions will not exist in their current form.

Moody's investor services announced that it was considering lowering the credit ratings of five top banks, a move that would expose them to the savage judgment of the money markets.

They are the Long Term Credit Bank of Japan, the Nippon Credit Bank which has also been subject to speculation about its continued viability, Mitsui Trust and Banking, Yasuda Trust and the Chuo Trust.

To appreciate the grim financial and economic conditions - becoming worse daily - one must examine the problems. This past week an outstanding article was posted at GOLD-EAGLE, which describes in minute detail what is happening in Asia. Particularly meaningful is re-read in light of Japans avalanche of failures of financial institutions this week:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html

Many thanks to Donald and others for the links posted here. The IMF issuing bonds is a remarkable notion. Global debt is beginning to look more and more like a pyramid scheme.

Some thoughts on market psychology. Behavior theory provides some predictions re 'Buy the dips". This behavior has been handsomely rewarded and on that basis can be expected to continue. At this point in the Dow and S&P the strategy is not being rewarded as consistently as before. Paradoxically, theory predicts that "buy the dips" will become stronger as a result. Behavior maintained by a random schedule of intermittent reinforcement is very resistant to extinction ( Thus the succes of Las Vegas. Gambling concerns use very sophisticated schedules of reinforcement ) . A very steep, prolonged decline will of course teach dipsters to use another strategy, but more likely the market will enter a period of ill-defined trends that will keep investors "hooked".

Psychology and the gold market---now that's another story--a prime example of the "gambler's fallacy", i.e. because gold has gone down its next move has to be up.

Martin Mayer, "The Bankers"

Milton and the Chicgo school of economists taught the world that "money matters," but in its incarnation as a medium of exchange it clearly doesn't matter much.

Considered as a "store of value," however, money becomes a more complicated and interesting phenomenon. The phrase "store of value" is deceptively clear; what it means, in operation, is that money
can be used to bridge the passage of time."

AZAU certainly has the golden globe firmly in the palm of his hand...

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971129/business/stories/yasuda_1.html

Make no mistake about it. It is a pyramid scheme in the classic sense. The arrogant and brash acts of the players have been intensified by their access to technology that allows for manipulation on a grand scale heretofore unimaginable.

The resultant crash too shall be unimaginable. The impact on social systems will be devastating to say the least.

SDR
Seems like they're burning up time then.
At an expotentialy increasing rate.

Sort of like when the world shook on Oct28th.
In time and distance the markets,
Absorbed the equivalent movements.
Of a seasons worth of volatility.
All in a day.

They are issuing a "sell" signal based upon the S&P close of 946.67 on November 24th. This "sell" signal was generated below the old high. The last three times that has happened were summer of '94, April '90 and September '87. In two of those three instances a full-blown bear market was immediate. The third time it arrived within 3 months.

Brazil shrs end down 2.33 pct in lacklustre trade
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971128/brazil_shrs_end_down_1.html
``It was a slow day. Players became bearish towards the session's end when some rumours about a hike in capital gains tax were heard,'' said one trader.

Mr. Dennis Beresford, former Chairman of the FASB, making a comment about the proposed rules for derivative reporting that Alan Greenspan and the banks are fighting. He says without this new rule you can't properly evaluate gold mining companies. You don't know how they are hedged as they are not required to divilge it now.

donald_A--

for your efforts and in-exhaustable supply of
credible information, you are here-by given
a permanent seat on the smoke-signal-mobile,
and a golden feather as proof there-of.
auric and ted are on your left and right--respectively.

the don has planted many seeds, some sprouting, others peeking
above the cloud-tops, all with the same goal. to spread their
branches and spread the seeds of knowledge.


cherokee!;----------driver-of-the-smoke-signal-mobile-for-all-time----imm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/digest/int1.htm

Politicians worldwide ( the enemies of gold ) , continually carp about GOLD HAS NO VALUE! Well, lets see if there is truth in their words!

Tell the victims of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, Brazil and now Japan, that they shouldn't own gold because it doesn't pay
interest. They would laugh at you. For several mornings thousands of Japanese investors lined up at the door of Yamaichi -- some hysterical -- demanding their money. Money they may or may not ever see again.

Excepting the Yen ( although its turn will inevitably come ) , the average currency devaluation in South East Asia is about 30% in terms of the US dollar AND A LITTLE LESS IN TERMS OF GOLD! The Japanese Yen has only a short reprieve, before it TOO will be forced into involuntary devaluation...

Consider recent financial revelations in the Land of the SETTING Sun:

There are growing rumors Japanese Banks non-performing loans now top US$1 TRILLION - thats a One, followed by 12 zeros! DO WE REALLY KNOW THE SIGNIFICANCE OF WHAT A TRILLION MEANS???? Lets put the Nippon non-performing loans of US$1 Trillion into perspective or reference point we all understand.

For the sake of our example, assume the Japanese may attempt to some way recover or amortize the loss of $1 Trillion at the rate of One Dollar per minute, ALL DAY LONG. How long would it take the Nippons to pull out of the non-performing loan hole?

WOULD YOU BE SURPRISED THAT IT WOULD TAKE APPROXIMATELY 2,000,000 YEARS! So you may rest assured there is no typo here, I will spell it out: T-W-O...M-I-L-L-I-O-N....Y-E-A-R-S!

Is there anyone out there who naively believes that this one will be pulled out of the fire WITHOUT MASSIVE DEBT CLEANSING THROUGH DEVALUATION VERSUS GOLD????

The financial Domino Effect has begun! ORACLE paints a GRIM picture of the chaos, turmoil, havoc of the financial crisis:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html

I would stay away from this scammer. 500 Swiss Francs = $US 350.00 How the hell is this bird gonna sell you a ( one ounce, apparently ) gold eagle or Britannia for $A 80 or $ US 56.00 ??? P.S.- from NY Times 11/29/97:
Fed Monetary Aggregates: week ended 11/17 M1=$US 1,057Bn annual growth rate over 3 mos=-0.7%, over 6 mos=-1.4%, over 12 mos= -2.3%
M2=$US 3,993.4Bn annual growth rate over 3 mos=6.7%, over 6 mos=5.1%, over 12 mos=8.2%; M3=$US 5,290.6Bn annual growth rate over 3 mos= 10.3%, over 6 mos = 8.2%, over 12 mos=8.2%
Reserve Data ( average in Millions of dollars US ) :
Total Reserves ( 2 weeks ended 11/19 ) =46,370... ( 2 weeks ended 11/5 ( revised ) ) = 47,311; Average 3 mos ended Oct= 46,844
Borrowed reserves ( 2 weeks ended 11/19 ) = 149... ( 2 weeks ended 11/5= 238; Average 3 mos ended Oct = 435
Required reserves ( 2 weeks ended 11/19 ) = 44,791; ( 2 weeks ended 11/5 ( revised ) ) =45,649; ( 2 weeks ended 11/5; Average 3 mos ended Oct=45,529
Excess reserves ( 2 weeks ended 11/19 ) = 1,579; ( 2 weeks ended 11/5 ( revised ) ) =1,662; Average 3 mos ended Oct= 1,315

http://www.context.org/ICLIB/IC12/Thompson.htm

Tolerant 1, for your collection
Banks have done more injury to the religion, morality, tranquillity, prosperity, and even wealth of the nation than they can have done or ever will do good.
John Adams

For Autrator:
One gets out of a bad affair as one can. Balzac

For LGB2:
Beautiful credit! The foundation of modern society. Who shall say this is not the age of mutual trust, of unlimited reliance on human promises? That is a peculiar condition of modern society which enables a whole country to instantly recognize point and meaning to the familiar newspaper anecdote, which puts into the speculator in lands and mines this remark: I wasnt worth a cent two years ago, and now I owe two million dollars.
Samuel Clemens, Charles Dudley Warner, The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today

What goes around, comes around and there really is nothing new under the sun?

Crystal Ball
Thanks for the info.
He does sound sus.

Steves specially edited NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

BREAKING STORIES:

One third of Japans Banks predicted to fail
http://www.theage.com.au:80/daily/971127/bus/bus15.html

Russian Nukes for sale
http://www.forbes.com/Forbes/97/1201/6012264a.htm

Asian crisis multiplies Yeltsin's economy woes ( 28% interest rates! )
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971129/world/world11.html

Yamaichi "hid" $1.2b debts in Australia
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971129/business/business5.html

Asian Fallout affects Germany
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971129/world/world6.html

Japan - Things fall apart when the centre cannot hold
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971129/market/markets3.html

How Slick converted from a glitch to global crisis
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971129/perspective/perspective2.html

China Worries
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971129/perspective/perspective3.html

Templeton World Fund Manager admits Nikkei could drop much further
http://www.quote.com/news/recent/nbr/nbr1128.html#STORY3

IN REVIEW:

Suicides increases in Hong Kong due to stock losses
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971128/world/world2.html

Sth Korea - Workers' haven turns into jobless hell
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971128/world/world3.html

China's bank bubble due to burst: experts
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971128/world/world1.html

Yamaichi concealed losses for six years, says ex-chairman
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971128/world/world2.html

Samsung slashes investment by a third
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971127/world/world8.html

A quick history lesson shows that booms do bust - The Maverick
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/market/markets2.html

lgb2_A

your doom and gloom assertation that
included morons as their taskmasters
is quite ill-conceived.

relegate your-self to opinions and
leave the name calling to THE MORONS.

c'mon you're bigger than that!! right?

your vision is not the same as others,
and that is the way it should be. swallow
your ego ( salty? ) and productively partcipate....or
release the word warrior......

cherokee!;\----counciling-with-the-winds-of-war-------

In my humble opinion the world is quickly sliding to armed conflict. The financial chaos that goes unrecognized by the people of the United States coupled with the imperialistic actions of a government over stepping its Constitutional boundaries makes the world ripe for war.

The United States government is destroying the very fabric of international trade with each move it makes in tandem with the IMF. The goal of a one-world government, one-world currency and one-world court system is the buffet served up on this table. This is easily seen within the Clinton presidency as it relates to the United Nations, its rights and the creation of a standing one-world army.

In addition the Clinton administration has shady ( I prefer treasonable, but lets keep it tame ) dealings with the Red Chinese and is in fact underwriting the Chinese government with taxpayer dollars. If the people of the United States were aware of the deals cut with the Chinese government ( hidden behind a Red Chinese owned government corporation ) and understood it was their money being given away Clinton would be impeached.

Clearly part of the game is to undermine the only true money the world has known, gold. This leaves people with what to invest in as they seek to protect their assets? Paper, of every kind, backed by the governments and bankers. Once they have taken hold of this vast sea of money they have effective control of the global populace.

The Clinton administration has clear-cut goals and is implementing them every day. When the financial debacle is in its full fury Bill Clinton will exercise Executive powers that will effectively undermine the Senate and the Congress and make the peoples heads spin.

Is this the end? No, but a lot of time, wealth, not just measured in terms of dollars and cents and human life will be lost as a result of the complacency of the American people.

The first mention of United Nations peacekeeping officers on US soil could very well lead to civil war as "our" President seeks to "protect" and "serve" the American people.

Canadian deficit reduced to great social costs and without a choice.
Too much debt !!!!!!

The effects of dounloading on the provinces, who in turn dounload on the municipalities will be painfull.

All this done in a time of healthy economy and low interest rates.
Municipalities or cities will not be able to pay the welfare costs in hard times. The feds will not want help or be able to.

Our leather jacket/denim shirt leaders now trying to figure what to do about the economic crisis now happening.

How will the Canadian government be paid now from all the deals that were made in Asia and others. ( Candoo nuclear reactors, jets ect...... )

Recent interest rate hike show that they too are worried about the Canadian dollar. It seems that 70 cents to the US $ is the critical number to stay above. Anything below or near = rate hikes.

Can see a gas tax increase coming too cause of being the worst polluters.

Taxes are the Canadian way of dealing with money problems so why have any GOLD.

AURATOR: I have been reading and thinking about the Jastram paradox that the price of gold rises during deflations and falls during inflations. And, I believe I may now have an explanation for the rationale. If you think about it, when on a gold standard or quasi gold standard, as during the Justram periods, the purchasing power of gold was raised during deflation and reduced by inflation since everything was priced relative to gold. This also had a beneficial correcting mechanism for the economy. But this is not true in today's global floating exchange and IMO gold will not necessarily do well in deflation as it did before. It is important to keep in mind that unlike before, gold is not only not used as a pricing accounting unit or peg but rather is indexed with inflation. Consequently, there is nothing to limit any price on any commodity. And an increase of money induces inflation which inturn induces more money which in turn induces more inflation. If governments can efficiently control money, to the extent equivalent to the inherent qualities of gold, no CB bank would have to have gold and gold would serve no purpose except for adornment and industrial use. Consequently, it would be unconcionably foolish for a CB to hoard gold. Obviously, the reason CB's are selling is because of a consensual belief that governments can control money efficiently without the need of gold. Whether this is in fact true remains to be seen. And it is discussion worthy of being undertaken with a cup of Turkish coffee, brandy and good friends.

Isn't this in effect the IMF co-signing on the country's debt? Instead of infusing investment capital to be paid back to the IMF organization, the IMF is just re-issuing the troubled country's debt under their own name. Sort of like paying off one credit card with a cash advance on another. The question is, does the IMF get a better rate, and what income or collateral does the IMF pledge to the potential bond purchaser?

Steve

It is more than obvious that governments CANNOT control money efficiently

Themissinglink: In decoding your handle, I've narrowed it down to the following choices:

the missing link ?
them is sing link ?
the miss in g-link ?
t: hemi's sing link ?

I had to stretch to get these, am I missing any?

This guy needs to go and talk to the people of China. Their lives revolve around having 120 million automatic weapons pointed at them each and every waking moment. Oh, and they have no furniture to bump into.

Waxing philosophical is fabulous until it runs smack into the harsh reality that not everyone is free to have their own thoughts and speak of their own particular interpretation of life the universe and how to collect from their publisher.

Let's all live in make believe. Ah yeah.

Utopia or total control by one central bureaucracy in the name of economic and intellectual freedom and world peace?

Thanks for your comments. Trees instead of gold and silver won't
work ( well, for awhile, I suppose ) .

Thanks for posting world news.
I basically ignore most American news. ( football
basketball and crime )

Here's a thought from G. Edward Griffin

Eliminate the Income Tax

The flat-tax plan is not the answer. What we need is to follow the greatest proposal for tax reform the world has ever seen, and it is already in our Constitution. What we need is to take the chains off the rule of apportionment and put them back where they belong, on the Congress of the United States. What we need is to repeal the 16th Amendment.

This single act would accomplish almost everything the current proposals for tax reform claim to seek. For the first time since 1913, the federal government would have to prepare a realistic budget, because it would no longer be able to rely on an ongoing, limitless supply of revenue. Like the rest of us, it would have to live within its means, which would be from indirect taxes only. If it exceeded this budget, it would have to face the voters with a specific request for a specific amount on a specific date. It is difficult to conceive of a more effective plan for trimming the scope and reach of the federal bureaucracy. It would be necessary to scrutinize the budget to try to discover the hidden boondoggles and subsidies. Cut back the funds, and these automatically would wither away. The rule of apportionment is the only realistic answer.

Yes, we are talking about the elimination of the income tax. Many people would naturally ask, "But where would the money come from to run the government?" This question presupposes that all the money the federal government now receives is necessary. The reality is that - if we were to cut out the waste, subsidies, foreign giveaways, transfer programs, interest on the national debt, transfusions into the International Monetary Fund, and support for the World Bank, plus the cost of running the IRS itself - the federal government could easily operate, as it was intended to do, on indirect taxes alone. Many important sources of revenue would not be affected by apportionment, most specifically tariffs ( for revenue only, not for subsidizing a politically favored industry ) and such excises as a gasoline tax for the maintenance of roads, fees for admission to national parks, postage stamps for the operation of the post office, and similar items. It is totally workable.

Skylark: Fiat money is only as good as the government that issues it.
Think about it. What is the financial condition of government in the
industrialized countries? In a deflation they will all be insolvent. How anxious do you think people will be to hold the debt of a government
that may well default on its obligations? As for holding the bank notes,
who will want to hold wealth in bank notes that will become worthless if the government issuing them collapses? Also don't people argue that the reason to hold paper money over gold money is that paper can earn interest. Will that still be true if governments are defaulting on their debt? In a deflation people will want to hold money in a tangible
form that can't be defaulted upon if the government stops paying its debt
obligations or collapses rendering its bank notes worthless. Gold fills
the bill because it is the only monetary asset not simultaneously someone
else's liability. Other commodites can't fill the bill because only gold
still has status as a monetary asset. As for the central banks demonetizing it. Forget it! If the Swiss voted now on whether to sell the gold reserve, the referrendum would be defeated. That sentiment prevails in the rest of the world as well.

Thank you, thank you very much for making it simple and clear.

DEJ: Thanks for the remarks, your points are well-taken.

Skylark
I do not see that the price of gold rises during deflations and falls during inflations is a paradox at all. It is merely contrary to Consensius gentium - what everybody knows for a fact
On further reflection, it is entirely logical that gold did maintain its value during the 400+ years of the Jastram study, but that other commodities varied in price around it.
The question is really, Is gold a monetary metal or a mere commodity.
If gold is a mere commodity, the price of gold should ( ? ) tend to average around the level of demand. The industrial demand for gold, is slight indeed. The jewellery demand for gold does not have the efficiency of the Diamond Cartel to maintain inflated prices, so the price of jewellery gold should level off just above the average cost of production.
However, if gold is still a monetary metal then perhaps Jastrams conclusions may point the way to tomorrows expectations.
Just because Governments issue laws, does not necessarily mean that the people will obey the laws, especially when the laws involve morality - ie individual moral choice. Making the possession of gold or silver illegal, merely drives the hoarders into greater secrecy.
Skylark, imo the belief in gold as a monetary metal has been echoed from Croesus of the Lydians to The Emperors of China, from the Mayans to the Indians, from the first American pioneers to the Kings of Europe.
Sure we can give examples of alternate money ( even playing-card money was used in Canada! ) but, there seems to be one psychological constant, ---it is as good as gold.

Gold is as good as gold.


Logic and reason only spread so far. I get my best understandings from the subliminal messages that lie between the why and the because.
Croesus, it is 6:30 am in Aotearoa, ( aka New Zealand ) - the land of the long white cloud...thanks for the jolt!

aurator

amazed by that packrat William Thompson.

Looking at the troubled world of Michel Camdessus, and hoping, ( really ) that the IMF can succeed at this paper legerdemain. If the IMF fails, Ludd help us all

Not once in history has figment standard paper survived. Why do people insist it can work.

You have to ask why anyone hates gold as the basis of money.

Therein lies the answer.

The head fed wrote a paper on it and yet the world goes round and round, even now as financial chaos is breaking out all over the world.

The interest paying indebted will not inherit the world.

PUETZ: You may find this recent comment by John Lonski, Moody's senior economist, of interest in that it gives support to your deflationary bias:

"East Asias financial crisis underscores the importance of monitoring the growth of debt relative to sustainable economic activity. Ultimately, the USs imbalance between the 11.3% average annualized growth of nonfinancial-sector debt and the 7.5% average yearly growth of current-dollar GDP during the years of high leverage -- 1984-1989 --would lead to a spateof troubled loans and defaults. Recession would soon follow.

Invest in cash strapped Asian governments and businesses through the NEW and IMPROVED IMF Bailout Fund! You too can put your hard earned savings at risk by throwing good money after bad. Buy direct access to any Asian government you choose.

Even without your knowledge your bank might reinvest your deposits in these highly risky bonds.

Steve: )

No hidden meaning. I run a jewelry store in the Chicago north suburb of Glencoe. I specialize in custom one-of-a kind pieces. Before going retail I ran a repair and custom tradeshop, hence my name, The Missing Link Jewelers inc..

As regards my interest in gold as an investment, I majored in economics in college and I think it gives one a distrust of equity gambling and the vision to see the U.S. debt as a crisis in the making.

Steve
http://www.familyjeweler.com

Recently those unable to foresee the obvious continuing decline in gold's price during the past year have extended their sphere of publicly displayed incompetence and have included the suggestion here that the C$ has declined recently in response to the Asian problem. In today's Financial Post --unfortunately not important enough to include on the Web version-- the Post examines the matter. They agree with the conclusion that the decline is a result of the failure of the Canadian CB to raise interest rates quickly enough and --given that Canadian rates are still 1.25% less than the U$ --further increases are to be expected and the sooner the better. This Canadian made "in-house" problem has been presented by local sages to be the result of the orient's current difficulty and said gurus have further suggested in their best panglossian fashion that the currency may be the next to fall. While forecasting is a difficult pastime to do correctly getting the underlying facts correct should be a prerequisite even for such chronic disinformers.

Blonde:

The gamblers fallacy is indeed a fallacy because the events upon which a gambler bets are independent. If 55 reds hit consecutively on the roulette wheel the next spin is not biased in any way towards red or black, unless of course the wheel is rigged.

The gold market does not fit so well into this framework. It is asymetric as to its price distribution because the metal has use and its extraction has a non zero cost. Note that in the several thousand years of history we never find a gold price of zero.

Given relatively constant demand, if the price of gold is very far above its production costs then the distribution of its future price changes may be more close to random or point towards decreasing price, when the price is below production costs its future price changes are likely to be skewed towards the positive. There is little question that at current prices gold is below production cost for a significant portion of the mining industry. Gamblers purchasing gold at these prices appear to be making good bets.

I was preparing an article for the investment club. Just thought I'd share...


Allow me to explain my understanding of the recent history of the gold market and the status of the situation today. I will try to be clear on that which is fact and that which is opinion. Take note that both will not be aligned with what is portrayed in the popular press today. It has become very trendy to scorn gold investments. Let's review some of the facts and myths:


"Gold is an ancient relic of the past of no monetary value in today's world".

The facts: Most gold traded in the world transacts through the London Bullion Market Association ( LBMA ) . The most recent figures released on Nov 12 showed that in the last full data month ( October ) that an average of 42 million ounces of gold transacted each day. This was 53% higher than the previous October. Also reported was the average price per ounce of $324.87 to yield average daily transactions of $13.6 billion. This is higher than the currency markets transact in the average currency. Make no mistake gold is still very much used as money and its use is growing! To look at it another way, annual gold mine production will be approximately 62.6 million ounces in 1997. So all the gold mined this year will change hands every 1.5 days at the LBMA. Make no mistake, gold is being used as money.


"Gold is no longer in demand".

The facts: According to CPM group annual total gold fabrication demand will rise to 98.9 million ounces in 1997. This is a record high, being 2.9 million ounces ( 3% ) higher than 1996.

"Gold no longer performs the function as a traditional store of value".

The facts: According to the World Gold Council local gold prices in the average currency have risen since 1995 by approximately 7%. Gold in the US dollar however has fallen by approximately 11% during that same period. For most of the world's population however, gold has performed better than their local currency at storing value. Interestinly enough, it would seem that gold just happened to perform the best in those countries where there was already a high cultural interest in the metal.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

SO WHAT IS WRONG?

The problem lies on the supply side. Gold's problems began with a paradigm shift. It was long accepted that holding gold yielded nothing. This is no longer accepted. Just as increased efficiencies have been demanded to improve industrial competitiveness in the 90's so too has gold holders demanded a return on their investment.

Another key factor to remember is that governments tend to hold their gold reserves on the books at a fixed price well below the "market" price. The result is that as an investor you care if the value of your gold goes up or down 10%. To the central banker the price movement is not really accounted for. One must understand this concept to accept later discussions when Central Bankers are willing to let the price of gold fall. They are not investing like you and I. They are only attempting to hold ounces in a relative relation to units of currency.

THE FIRST WAVE...

If I hold dollars, using an intermediary like a bank, I lend those dollars to someone. In return I get to earn interest for having loaned my dollars. By the way, I get back other dollars, not the same actual dollars I gave the bank. That is, the borrower actually spends my dollars and later returns other equivalent dollars. So too it is with gold today, Central Banks have begun a policy of lending their gold to earn interest. They receive what is called the lease rate. The borrower uses that gold directly for fabrication OR for what has become both popular and lucrative in recent history... selling the leased gold on the open market and buying US treasury bonds with the proceeds which have a higher yield then the lease rate paid. The bankers are not at fault for lending. It makes sense. The borrowers are not at fault for accepting the gold and investing in T-bills. They have made money in a great low risk investment. As the practice caught on, the increase in gold sold into the market actually caused the price of gold to begin to fall. This added icing on the cake of the borrower as when he had to buy to replace the gold he "leased" it was cheaper than when he originally sold it. He made more money still and attracted even more participants. This process became very popular indeed. As more Central Banks joined the leasing party there was so much gold available for lease that the "lease rate" could not be raised due to competition. Once the supply of new lease gold is contained, only then can the Central Bankers demand a higher lease rate. This will spread the gain around and squeeze the margins of the borrower between the T-bill and the lease rate. As of today, estimates appear to indicate that as much as 50% of CB gold may be leased. It is unknown if Central Bankers will lend more; however, Switzerland has publically announced that they would lend more to the market if lease rates rose so high to "cause a squeeze". Their motives are unknown. Lease rates in recent months have risen slightly.

THE SECOND WAVE...

Several years ago, the Mexican peso got in trouble. The US extended loans. There was public outcry and the politicians involved took it on the chin. What was learned was that having the public in the middle of the discussion of a government bailout wasn't a desirable thing. A lesson was learned.

More recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia made an agreement to extend a loan to Indonesia to contain a developing currency crises. To keep the Australian public out of the discussion, in large part, it didn't tap public funds but instead on July 3rd, 1997 sold 167 tonnes ( 67% ) of its gold reserve. Well, for the best of plans, the public did become involved as it didn't want the gold sold. Additionally, analysis clearly is indicating that the move has weakened the Australian currency. Well another lesson learned in how not to make a bailout loan!

As the currency problems of SE Asia grew, a better and more secretive way to extend loans to Asian governments was needed. It couldn't be in the public eye, it couldn't involve the loaner selling his gold on the market or even exposing who the loaner was. Here in my opinion is what occurred: The Central Bankers of loaner countries agreed to free up for lease a portion of their gold reserves for the Asian borrowers. The Central Bankers leased and Asians took the leases. All was well. The Asian country now had additional monetary reserves available at hand for only the gold "lease rate" which is really quite cheap. In addition, there was a wink and a nod that the lease rate would also be taken care of by some well started rumors of further impending CB gold sales. This would result in a temporary drop in the gold price allowing the borrower to make enough to cover the cost of the lease rate. The public was not informed and everything worked smoothly. The borrowing government on days of crises had to use some of his extended gold credit to defend his currency. Therefore, at points of high crises, the borrower had to convert some/ all of his leased gold reserves to cash. He did so by selling into the gold market at that point in time. Everybody was happy except for a few squashed goldbugs like myself who watched in awe as the gold price fell in reaction to a currency crises!

SO WHERE FROM HERE?

The currency crises of SE Asia is bigger than what was originally thought. It is unlikely that these "gold lease loans" will be repaid in the near future. One can expect that the loaning Central Bankers will not allow significantly higher gold prices to exist until the loans are repaid by repurchased of the leased and sold gold in the market. If one questions what it will take to keep the situation stable in the near future, here is my best guess. In the face of the higher demand caused by the result of the currency crises worldwide and considering that the lease rates have moved up slightly recently indicating increased demand, gold must continue to decline in a slow but steady rate to keep the Lease Rate to T-bill interest rate margins positive in order to prevent a short covering rally by unwinding positions. This seems to be occurring. There will be virtually no up days in the gold market. Likewise, people who expected large precipitous drops now that the psychological $300/oz barrier was crossed will also be disappointed. The point in time when CB manipulation of this market will end is not predictable at this point in time. With approximately one half of CB reserves still available for lease however, do not expect that Bubba won't get what he wants. ( Don't fight the Fed ) . Someday, gold will have a glorious rebound. It just isn't on the radar screen at the moment. My personal error was in expecting that the Central Bankers would have halted downward action at a level to allow the mining industry to survive, along with mining oriented economies. President Zedillo of Mexico has publically asked the Swiss to recant their threat of gold sales. They have not. About 50% of the world's mines are economic at $317/oz. Just a few days ago, the president of Anglogold ( Largest gold producer in the world ) has asked the Central Bankers to clarify their intentions. I don't know who he is expecting to step up and answer, but I don't expect him to get one.

NOW AS FOR SILVER...

None of the above applies. This gold / silver ratio thing is another paradigm that will be broken soon. Silver will rise to it's rightful value as a non-political commodity.

 Copywrite by Psilver Psyched November 29, 1997.

Re: the request for discount futures/options broker:
I can recommend Ira Epstein & Co. in Chicago
-$16 rate
-free charting software
-free data ( stocks, commodities - end of day and 15 min )
-free telephone quotes
-internet trading
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Contact John Hackner - 1-800-284-1093

Not associated with the company - just a satisfied customer.
( but be forewarned re: the risks of futures trading - and good luck! )

Selby:

My read on the Canadian dollar is that the decline is more traceable to the fall in primary metals prices. Both the Canadian and Australian currencies are effected by rises and falls in base metals prices because they are significant sources of export dollars. Given that we have been in a pretty strong decline in these markets for several months it is not surprising to find the Canadian dollar under pressure. The recent rate hikes by the Bank of Canada have been both to shore up the Canadian dollar and to slow the economy which is growing explosively. The weaker Canadian dollar only adds fuel to the fire. I believe that the Canadian central bank runs a monetary conditions index which measure the ease of money by melding interest rates and the relative value of the Canadian dollar. Recently this index has been in the stimulative zone at a time when the economy was already growing strongly. Not wishing to create a boom the CB has moved to take its foot off the accelerator. I believe that at the current settings policy is still more accomodating than neutral.

I find this website of a 24 yr old Swiss ( recent Economic Grad )
a 'solace stop'...

There may be hope yet?
http://www.switzerland.isyours.com/FXM/MH/Bimetalintro.htm

For a further example of an outside destabilizing speculator who bought high and sold low, there is the edifying history of a great Master of the Mint, Isaac Newton, a scientist and presumably rational. In the spring of 1720, he stated:
I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not
the madness of people.

Skylark

You might recognise William Jennings Bryan

"The humblest citizen in all the land, when clad in the armor of a righteous cause, is stronger than all the hosts of error. I come to speak to you in defence of a cause as holy as the cause of liberty - the cause of humanity."

The Central banks, with their view of gold as a worthless barberous relic, are the hosts of error, imho of course





ALL

Cannot hold back, dak, any longer:

Franois Micheloud in Switzerland has create a wonderful site of interest to all here.


Topics include
The Crime of 73
William Jennings Bryan
Bimetallism
Canadian Playing Card money of 18th Cent

http://www.switzerland.isyours.com/FXM/MH/index.htm

Thank you Franois

..FWIW,Xau minor cycle should bottom before the middle of December,I expect around 65 upward move till the end of January around 85.
intermediate cycle will bottom around the end of April the Xau could\
be sitting around 50.From April till the end of the year to go long,this is in synch with rising interest rates.The final deflationary collapse
cycle to be ending 2001,all stock indices will be pulverised.

D.A. Your views are expressed in the Financial Post but the issue is the speed with which the Canadian CB has moved to raise rates as the Index suggested was required. The lack of a meaningful response in the C$ to the recent .25% increase is seen as indicating "too little - too late" so further increases are to expected. Perhaps more important than metal prices at this point is the 1.25% difference in C$ and U$ rates. Asking folks to buy Canadian debt at 1.25% less than can be obtained in the US is asking for trouble. Trouble is what the Governor of the Bank of Canada has as a result of his inaction --not as a result of failing Japanese banks.

SDR_er Synchronious movement, like sharefin's lockstep

To err is human, To moo, bovine

If the price of gold is $300 an oz, then how much is a ton, pound, g,
etc. If someone could post this, I would appreciate it. If I tried to
figure it out, I am sure to make an error.

Thanks.

Just a short while ago Psilver Psyched posted a very interesting essay about the noble metal. He included some incredible data about GOLDs daily trading on the LBMA. Correctly, he indicates:

To look at it another way, annual gold mine production will be approximately 62.6 million ounces in 1997. So all the gold mined this year will change hands every 1.5 days at the LBMA. MAKE NO MISTAKE, GOLD IS BEING USED AS MONEY.

Well, I would like to take this one step further. All the GOLD ever mined and still in existence - since time immemorial - is approximately 120,000 tonnes ( tonne = 2,200 pounds ) . Therefore, at a constant daily GOLD trading volume of 42 million ounces ( as recently reported by the LBMA ) , ALL OF THE GOLD IN EXISTENCE ABOVE GROUND TRADES EVERY 92 DAYS! To say it another way, the entire worlds stash of the shiny-yellow TURNS-OVER FOUR TIMES PER YEAR. This is a CARDINAL CHARACTERISTIC OF A CURRENCY, NOT a commodity.

Those claiming GOLD is just a commodity are blowing camouflage smoke in our direction with the specific intent to MISLEAD!

Only CURRENCIES, i.e. MONEY enjoy that high annual turn-over.

http://www.gold-eagle.com

Jung, there are 31 grams in a troy ounce. At $300 per ounce, gold is worth $9.68 per gram, or $9,677 per kilo, or $9.7mm per metric tonne.
To the best of my knowledge...

Vronsky:

You posted that the Japanese banking system is underwater to the tune of 130 billion dollars US. If this is the extent of the problem then it will certainly be contained. When our S&L's went under the pricetag was around the 400 billion dollar level and here we are today. No meltdown.

Lets suppose that the Japanese float bonds for the entirety of the 130 billion. At the current rates of 1.7 percent for a ten year bond this amounts to debt service of around 2.2 billion dollars a year. This is about two weeks trade surplus with the US. Hardly a frightening number.
They will do what we have done. Leave short rates very low, sell lots of bonds, and have underreported inflation to screw the bondholders. Only when the bondholders figure out what is going on will the worlds financial system be in deep sh&t. Until then the CB's will print money with impunity. If the CB's fear gold, it is precisely because its price rise would shed unwanted light on this game.

Someone posted an article that the IMF may begin to issue bonds. Surprise, surprise. The will be 'bought' by central banks all over the world. Net result, more printed money.

Platinum and Palladium caused not a stir. When silver goes ballistic it will be 'blamed' on Soros or the other evil hedge funds. When gold finally does go, scapegoats will be hard to find.

AURATOR: Thanks for replying and stimulating my thinking. I will try to respond to your points in the order presented:

Your Consensius gentium on gold is to me not axiomatic. Gold has been a leading indicator of inflation/deflation for at least the last twenty years with astonishing correlation. And it goes up, not down, with inflation and down, not up, with deflation. I am more friendly looking at your further reflection that during the Jastram study, other commodities varied around the price of gold.

Is gold commodity or money? Ah that is indeed the question, as well as the rub. At least until now, there has been no question that gold is more than just a commodity. Some get the wrong idea that in order to be money, it has to be traded widely as one trades dollars. Not so, it merely could be an accounting unit which is looked on to detemine price. Not too long ago, and still today in some places, people would barter chickens, and other stuff on a equivalent value of gold. Neither party exchanged gold and neither party may have had gold but gold was the monetary unit on which the transaction was based. Today, the dollar has replaced gold to some degree, but since the dollar varies about the price of gold, it is not the same.

Gold's value as a monetary unit is further exemplied by the fact that its price has never responded well to merely jewlery or fabrication demand, but to economic or financial conditions which is why it is used as a reliable economic indicator of inflation or deflation expectations. And this would seem contrary to Jastram findings. In this respect, it is interesting to observe that gold analysts speak of the reasons for the rise or fall in gold relative to Producter/CB supply and Jewlery/Investment demand while economists give the reasons relative to inflationary or deflationary expectations. There is no assurance that the recent fall of gold is due to it being demonitized as some claim, since gold is performing exactly as it should perform during disinflationary economic conditions as an indicator. What will have to occur is for gold to act against what would ordinarily be expected of gold before any such demonitization can be demonstrated. IMO, the LBMA high turnover does not necessarily support the view that gold is being used as money since much if not most of this is probably due to the gold carry trade, producer hedging and forward sales.

Just because Governments issue laws, does not necessarily mean that the people will obey the laws, but it also does not mean that people will not. However, I agree that what makes gold worth money is not because governments have decreed it as such but because of its intrinsic qualities which make it difficult, if not impossible, for any government to change. And there is no present substitute that has these qualities that have proven their worth with time.

I often wonder why I continue to be intriqued with and invest in gold, I can think of many reasons not to, it must be from those same subliminal messages from Croseus.

PAX

PS With regard to the IMF, Moody's economist predicts global inflation within 6 to 18 months rising from the Asian IMF funding .

That provides the mechanics to the scenario I
have suspected.

I too, will be a squashed bug if cbs don't relent.

I still suspect they will.

Skylark

Having fed the animals, it is now my turn. Pardon me if I fox the page with egg. ( shouldn't mention foxes I suppose- none here in NZ ) anyway,
There is one piece of CB hypocrisy I found astounding that is that gold is still, now, universally ( even on mars ) after a Western generation off the gold standard, still counted as an asset ( with no corresponding liability - unlike foreign reserves & SDRs ) in the BALANCE SHEETS OF THE CBs themselves?

I am finding this discussion most fruitful...

Pax vobiscum

omni animali post coitum triste est praeter muliorum gallumque.


auratorat ergo sum

sharefin:

try this url for a good intro to bullion coin there are many out there

http://www.tradeshop.com/cgi-bin/cgiwrap/raylc/
ajpm/gold.cgi

http://www.tradeshop.com/cgi-bin/cgiwrap/raylc/ajpm/gold.cgi

D.A. You are correct in saying that the gold market doesn't fit the assumptions of the gambler's fallacy ( independent, random events ) . Nevertheless, when gold investors make decisions based on the idea that a commodity has to go up in price because it has recently gone down in price, they are responding similar to the gambler.

With regard to whether or not gold is a good bet right now, I can only say that the fundamental and technical analysis on this site for the last year have not been helpful thus far. That is not a criticism of the analysis or the analysts. It's just stating facts. Logically the cost of production should be the floor, but logic hasn't been much help in predicting the gold price.

AURATOR

Another excellent offering from Europe:

This link the Table of Contents for

""A Comparative Chronology of Money from Ancient Times to the Present Day""  Roy Davies & Glyn Davies, 1996.

and contains a vast amount of information, collected in two generations...

http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/amser/chrono.html

This from the last URL

c1455
China abandons paper money
There are no known references to paper money being in circulation after
this date. Thus after well over 500 years of experience with paper
currencies, during which there have been repeated episodes of inflation and currency reform, China ceases to use paper money.
p 183

Skylark

lacrim mundi

Credo homo ludens

I have heard of this?

Something interesting happened just ago that will, in time

impact the price of gold in US$. A proposal was offered to

borrow in broken lots, 3.5 and 5.5 million ozs for resale.

It was turned down. The owner offered to sell only, no lease.

What turned heads was that someone else stepped in and

took it all, at a premium!

Some say the winds blow stronger on still nights. This

gold market has yet to weather strong winds, I think we

have seen the end to smooth water.

Be thoughtful not to fight the last war!

I will be done for a time.

( See my last two posts )

ANOTHER

you mean this? saw it a few days ago, tra la la

http://www.freetrader.com/chat/messages/786.html
http://www.freetrader.com/chat/messages/1080.html
http://www.freetrader.com/chat/messages/1357.html
Re: GOLD BULLION - SELL
[ Follow Ups ] [ Post Followup ] [ Free Trader Online Conference ]
Posted by Bill Silbermann-Silbermann Intl. Partners LTD. on November 16,
1997 at 12:43:45:
In Reply to: Re: GOLD BULLION - SELL posted by Smith, Robert A. , Tower
Trust on October 04, 1997 at 13:16:57:
: : : Have available, in vault, Switzerland, up to 100 MT gold bullion. Swiss
Procedures, Procedures are VERY attractive.
: : : Subject to or sale

Posted by Bill Silbermann on November 22, 1997 at 19:26:55:
In Reply to: Re: GOLD BULLION - SELL posted by Smith, Robert A. , Tower
Trust on October 04, 1997 at 13:16:57:
Our buyer has upped his initial request from 10mt to 50 mt .Do you give
BUYER/BROKER DISCOUNT? pLEASE RESPOND BACK asap as we are
ready TO CLOSE A DEAL IMMEDIATELY.
: : : Have available, in vault, Switzerland, up to 100 MT gold bullion. Swiss
Procedures, Procedures are VERY attractive.
: : : Subject to or sale
: : ) ) Have buyer for Au+metal Bullion minimum of 100 MT.contact Han Park at
: : E-mail Unicca@aol.com


auratagumshu

gum sarn mountain of gold

Noone out there? talkin to myself? See ya.

Creditor forces St. Genevive to seek protection

KWG tries to trace lost $21M as another unit files for CCAA

Saturday, November 29, 1997

By PETER KENNEDY and PAUL BAGNELL
The Financial Post
In the end, Pierre Gauthier's appetite for promotion may have got the better of him.
That was the consensus Friday after St. Genevive Resources Ltd., the flagship company in Gauthier's Montreal mining group, joined affiliate KWG Resources Inc. in seeking court protection from creditors.
The Toronto Stock Exchange said trading in shares of St. Genevive and KWG will remain halted "pending clarification of the companies' affairs."
Shares of affiliates Genoil Inc. and Emerging Africa Gold Inc. are not expected to trade until Tuesday at the earliest.
The probe centres on who in the St. Genevive group signed documents resulting in the transfer of US$5 million from Genoil and $14.8 million from Emerging Africa Gold into accounts of KWG.
Results of the probe are expected to be released on Tuesday.
"The question is who did what with our money, where did it go and can we recover it,'' said Richard Wilson, a Calgary lawyer acting for Genoil.
Jacques Rossignol, a Montreal lawyer retained by KWG and St. Genevive, said he and others would spend the weekend "trying to understand all the transactions that took place."
The transactions have raised questions about the involvement of former St. Genevive chief executive Peter Miller and Alain Taillefer, KWG's vice-president of finance.
Both have resigned along with other directors in the St. Genevive group.
"We don't know who signed the authorization documents,'' said Wilson, adding Genoil's funds have been deposited with Wellington West Capital in Winnipeg.
Gauthier or other company spokesmen could not be reached for comment Friday. But analysts and lawyers interviewed by The Financial Post have concluded this is a classic case of a group getting overextended in a bid to fund projects in risky areas like Cuba and Russia.
St. Genevive's problems are especially surprising because Gauthier's reputation for raising money is rivalled only by the likes of Robert Friedland, the Singapore financier whose company made the Voisey's Bay nickel strike in Labrador.
A 50-year-old former stockbroker, with film-star looks and the gift of the gab, Gauthier is known for taking analysts and fund managers on extravagant trips to projects in Cuba and the Dominican Republic.
"Everything he talked about was highly promotional,'' said one analyst, adding that during a 1996 trip to the Caribbean, Gauthier told his guests he would be "the next Friedland.''
But the excursions involving analysts and fund managers from the likes of C.M. Oliver & Co. Ltd., BPI Capital Management Corp. and Altamira Management Ltd. paid off, resulting in glowing reports and raising millions of dollars for his projects.
During 1996, Gauthier's group of companies went to the market six times, raising $141.9 million.
Underwriters included C.M. Oliver, Midland Walwyn Capital Inc., CIBC Wood Gundy Inc., Yorkton Securities Inc. and Marleau Lemire Securities Inc.
But few of the group's many projects have met investors' hopes and share prices of the group's main companies have languished.
In early 1996, shares of KWG jumped to $20 a share from $3.35 on a glowing report by an analyst on the company's Gaspar gold exploration project in Cuba, but Gaspar has since been a big disappointment.
KWG ( KWG/TSE ) shares were worth 40 when trading was halted Thursday.
Shares of St. Genevive ( SGV/TSE ) were trading at $1.56 in last December and were valued at 16 apiece on Thursday.
In July this year, KWG announced it was on the verge of becoming a major nickel producer, with an agreement to become a 50% owner of the large Cupey nickel mine in Cuba.
Gauthier said KWG was required to come up with US$300 million by the end of November to make the deal happen.
Earlier this month, however, KWG said it needed more time to negotiate with the Cuban government and raise the needed money. On Thursday, it said it is abandoning the Cupey deal.
Insiders and the companies themselves have traded actively in their stocks, records show.
For instance, St. Genevive did 146 trades in KWG stock in January alone. Gauthier did 37 trades in St. Genevive stock in May through his personal holding company, Gencap Inc.
John Ing, president of Maison Placements Inc. in Toronto, said Gauthier has "a long history" of touting ever-larger projects that never quite reach expectations.
He remembered an early Gauthier venture, a gold company that claimed to be able to extract gold from ore by spinning it in a large machine. "That was an object of derision and much amusement."
- with files from Dan Westell/FP

Your comment on Homo Ludens is well taken, but unfortunately, all to often in today's world the above applies.

Blondie, your 15:04 makes sense. With a 22 to 30 year supply of above ground Gold reserves ( depending on who you believe ) readily available to dump into the marketplace from CB's, and other sources, no one can say that supply will suddenly "dry up" regardless of production price, therefore it's anyone's guess where it will go, and the guesses by the analysts here have been consistently wrong. ( With the exception of Hepcat's guesses of course )

Another large producer, TVX Gold is about to abandon it's main project in Greece, due to major opposition by local activists.
Folks, this is all great news for the bullion market, as projects that were expected to produce mountains of Gold are either frauds ( witness Bre-x and 200 million ounces ) , or will never fly for various reasons.
The Hype about the massive supplies of Gold available out there outweighs Gold bullion, 100 to 1.

Assuming 120,000 metric tonnes of gold mined so far:

1. this is about 0.64 oz ( =19.8 grams ) of gold for every living person

2. this is $189 of gold per living person

3. all this gold would fit in a cube of 18.4 meters ( =60.35 ft ) on side
( specific gravity of gold=19.32 )



Assuming 2,000 metric ton annual production:

1. this production adds about .01075 oz per living person or increases the existing supply by 1.67%

2. this newly mined gold would fit in a cube 4.6 meters ( =15.09 ft ) on side

3. this represents $3.18 per person

So what.

I take exception to several of your contentions. AS to Gold being a monetary instrument due to increased trade volume, that's like saying the increased volume in equities has now converted them into a monetary instrument. Gold is a commodity, like equities, and is trading as one.

Secondly as to increased thrid wolrd demand and consumption, of COURSE that's occuring! Their economies and populations are have been growing, thus their industrial, and jewelry consumption, will grow at an equivelant accelerated pace.

Thirdly, as to Gold holding it's own relative to other nations devalued currencies, this is certainly true, however, when you compare Gold's price in those currencies to other commodities in those countries, Gold is NOT holding it's own, and that is the only valid comparison to make, especially if you're a "Non paper Bug". Gold has certainly not held it's own relative to other commodities in the largest economies. The U.S. economy in particular.

As to CB selling, lease rate covering, and future of Gold's price, you're analysis makes perfect sense. Personally however, I believe that the $280 support level will hold and will be the approximate bottom. Too many buyers will begin moving in at that price and will offset the pressures from teh shorts.

I cannot get your 16:04. Please repost

OK, someone attempt a translation for the "left brainers"
in this group. I enjoy riddles and even the occasional
allegory, but, when I have quite a lump riding on gold,
prefer the unambiguous. I must say though the chap ( ess ) is
somewhat intriguing.

MOREGOLD: Where are you getting your information on the TVX abandonment. I talked to TVX last week and IR was upbeat on the project.

How do you like this one..we've been seeing a paper charade of gold contracts, now we're seeing a physical parade?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971128/japan_s_mid_sized_li_1.html

http://www.usnews.com:80/usnews/issue/971208/8imf.htm

I'm happy to see someone clear the market of 255 metric tons.
9,000,000 oz divided by 35200 oz/ton = 255.68 tons.
Maybe that stuff will never be for sale again.
9,000,000 X 295 = $2,655,000,000
A couple more of those size deals. - Who knows, gold might go all the
way up to 296.

http://www.sfgate.com:80/cgi-bin/chronicle/article.cgi?file=MN58155.DTL&directory=/chronicle/archive/1997/11/26

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971129/russia_chubais_1stld_1.html

http://outside.starwave.com:80/magazine/1297/9712dispenter.html

Steady: I just read an artcile in todays newspaper. It said that all the gold that was mined in tha past 10,000 years was all lumped together, it would take up the size of a football field, 1 meter thick.

To ALL: I guess CB's are only threatening to sell their gold, I can't see it really happening. If they really do sell, believe me, gold will sjyrocket because it will be in the hands of people who want to keep it.

http://news.bbc.co.uk:80/hi/english/world/monitoring/newsid_35000/35558.stm

Puetze, better tell your followers to dump their S&P Dec, Puts right away ( if any are even slightly still in the money ) so thatthey don't lose 100% of their investment. They'll be expiring worthless, a 100% loss otherwise. ( I know...you're just here to make money for investors... )

http://www.pathfinder.com:80/Asiaweek/97/1128/biz1a.html

http://ngeorgia.com/travel/losttreasures.shtml

There is great talk here about CB selling and leasing affecting the price of gold. The CBs presumably have 100 billion ounces of gold and sell or lease 10-20mill sell and who knows what they lease. However, derivitive gold trades 300-400 million oz per month on just the LBMA.This makes the LBMA and other derivitive exchanges the real gold price discoverer. The CB trading is dwarfed by derivitive trading. At best one could say derivitive trading is influenced by CB announcements. Seems to me the size of derivitive gold dwarfs CB gold. In other words the monthly demand for derivitive gold would take out the physical supply in short order. Please someone technically explain how this is wrong ie that derivitives determine the price of CB gold and CB sales basically follow what the derivitve people discover or force as price. CB annoucements only have a psychological effect.

Comments from those who think the CBs affect price. It doesnt add up if you look at derivitive volume dwarfing actual physical gold.

Stop pickin on Peutz. How many times have you been quoted by Alan Abelson in Barrons.

Glad to hear from Another again....lets see, gold at 296?....that means we are now going to get Another drop of $20.....well, at least he's consistent.....

http://www.smithers.co.uk/independent.html

A commodity is similar to a passing phase, no different than your hair color, unless it is real. Gold, the thing, that which is not the promise of a charlatan belongs unto itself as a measure of that which is not the promise of man or woman. It is closer to the thoughts of God, which many have penned. It is the measure by which we can compare ourselves to the truth.

To ascribe one's self to such a matter would be to act as a God and as of yet I am unimpressed.

http://www.gerbino.com/gold_mining.html

Dichotomy does not lead others to ignite candles. What of which you speak has not happened before? A riddle becomes nothing unto itself if it cannot look in the mirror. Although, I admit, ego would get in the way.

Which have you rationalized yourself to become. Are you an audience for yourself.

I myself prefer waffles although they need not a stable.

http://www.baresearch.com/cwsamp.htm

http://www.insightcomputer.com/ami/

LGB
Taking advise ( and giving ) on investments over the net is dangerous.

If I was to do as you say and dump my puts on Monday,
And the dow then traded down over the next two weeks strongly.
( Indicators are pointing to a very high probability )

I would have to think that your advice was exceedingly bad.
And had caused me to loose lots of money.

It is up to the individual to decide on their own trading strategy.
To take and measure their own risks.
And to not listen to every Bull/Bear forcaster.

You are not a certified advisor and should leave your advise where it belongs.
IMHO

THE AGE, Melbourne Online - by Russell Skelton ( Tokyo ) - excerpts:

Japan's Prime Minister, Mr Ryutaro Hashimoto, yesterday
officially cut adrift failing Japanese financial institutions when he indicated that his Government would protect depositors - but
NOT the nation's debt-ridden banks.

Mr Hashimoto's comments coincided with the collapse of another second tier bank - the Tokuyo City Bank - under the weight of 58.8 billion yen ( $673 million ) worth of non-performing loans in failed real estate ventures.

The governor of the Bank of Japan, Mr Yasuo Matsushita,
predicted that Tokuyo's closure could result in substantial losses. "The BOJ inspection of the bank found that it had a capital surplus, but the bank will likely have a larger amount of
irrecoverable loans," he said.

Vronsky NOTE: The last statement by the BOJ clearly means it hasnt the FOGGIEST NOTION of what is going on! But its BAD!

Part of the reason for Tokuyo's collapse was the steady
withdrawal of savings by depositors in recent weeks. It is the
fourth institution to fail this month, following the collapses of
Sanyo Securities, the Hokkaido Takushoku Bank and Yamaichi
Securities - Japan's fourth biggest securities house - which
closed on Monday with liabilities of 3.24 trillion yen.

Rumors about which financial institutions might next join the
financial scrap heap intensified after results were published
showing 13 OF JAPAN'S 19 MAJOR BANKS - EXCLUDING THE FAILED
HOKKAIDO TAKUSHOKU BANK - WILL REPORT MASSIVE LOSSES THIS FISCAL YEAR.

The banks are planning to write off 7.7 trillion yen worth of non
performing loans this year and another 1.6 trillion yen by the
March close of the fiscal year. BAD DEBTS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE A STAGGERING 16.6 TRILLION YEN.

Vronsky NOTE: The STAGGERING 16.6 TRILLION YEN is equivalent to US$130 Billion -- By Whom and How will these staggering losses be paid back?!

Much of yesterday's speculation focused on the Yasuda Trust,
which was downgraded by the Standard & Poor's rating agency to junk bond status, and Daiwa Securities which has been accused of illicit "tobashi" deals.

... as many as one third of Japan's financial institutions will not exist in their current form.

Moody's investor services announced that it was considering
lowering the credit ratings of five top banks, a move that would
expose them to the savage judgment of the money markets.

They are the Long Term Credit Bank of Japan, the Nippon Credit Bank which has also been subject to speculation about its continued viability, Mitsui Trust and Banking, Yasuda Trust and the Chuo Trust.

To appreciate the grim financial and economic conditions - becoming worse daily - one must examine the problems. This past week an outstanding article was posted at GOLD-EAGLE, which describes in minute detail what is happening in Asia. Particularly meaningful is re-read in light of Japans avalanche of failures of financial institutions this week:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html

http://www.freep.com/news/nw/qasia29.htm

This is perhaps the most comprehensive and accurate overview of the HOUSE OF ROTHSCHILDs financial activities during the last 200 years. And undoubtedly, NO ONE heretofore has ever come closer - indeed DARED - to estimating the extent of the Rothschild wealth TODAY... and what it might be up to in its traditional business of trading Treasuries and GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus112297.html

http://www.goldmoney.com/fgmr/

I saw Louis Rukeyser's show tonight, and he went out of his way ( even more than usual ) to insult gold investors. He said that it was the worst investment of the week, year, decade and generation. Then he tied it into cheap shots during the introduction of the show on two more occasions. If you have ever read Michael Lewis' Money Culture, it is hard not to laugh at Louis. His show is a great contrary indicator. His elves are now 6 Bulls 3 Neutral and 1 Bear. Look Out!!

http://www.capis.com/features/3f970710.html

http://www.stockscape.com/newsletters/mm/08972.htm

Althogh dated, gives a good example:

[Source: {The Age,} August 12, by Laura Tingle]

AUSTRALIA GIVES THAILAND A DERIVATIVE HELPING HAND.

Australia has pledged $US1 billion to help the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) bail-out the bankrupt Thai economy. In case anyone wondered how bankrupt Australia, with the highest foreign debt per capita in the world--which could only come up with a measly $3.5 million in aid for North Korea--can help bail out Thailand, the {Age} outlines how it is done.

``The Australian involvement will be made through a foreign currency swap between the Australian Reserve Bank and the Bank of Thailand. The $US1 billion swap does not involve direct transfer of funds of that amount to the Thai central bank.

``The currency swap being anticipated between Australia and Thailand will reduce the demands on Thailand for foreign currency -- and the pressure on the value of its own currency -- by exchanging a Thai bhat liability for a $US liability.

The Australian Reserve Bank would take on an exposure to the adverse

movements in the value of the Thai currency equivalent to $US1 billion.''

SKYLARK: The headline is "TVX warns it may pull out of Greece" in Saturdays Globe & Mail.
"TVX Gold is threatening to pull out of it's $270 million Gold mine development in northern Greece if the Greek gov't does not halt violent local protests against the project." etc.
I understand that this has been going on for quite some time.
The stock is hitting new lows the last few days.

http://www.pathfinder.com/Asiaweek/current/issue/biz1.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-09/07/064l-090797-idx.html

http://www.astroecon.com/open.html

SDR, Anyone

can someone get access here?
http://www.sfu.ca/~rdl/dlib/data/times/imf/index/992.html

to post tables on Gold holdings, gold at market prices and SDR Holdings world? by IMF from '48 till now.

would be appreciated tanx

All: Don't forget that one source of ready cash for propping up the market ( or other banks ) comes from gold loans, and the central banks still have 1/3-1/2 of their gold available for loans ( or sales? ) if the markets head south.

I wonder -- is the rapidly growing volume of gold trading at the LBMA a

symptom of how much trouble the Central Banks are in -- trying to keep the weaker CB's afloat?

I think we should still be bearish on gold bullion prices, until it is clear that the PPT et al have given up on pushing the markets back up.

I think we have all underestimated how far "the powers that be" will go to perpetuate the status quo.

I find it amazing that some of our illustrious leaders do not understand that gold bullion will be needed most after ( underline after ) a market crash, not before. They are throwing out the baby with the bathwater, I suspect.

http://www.the-privateer.com/archives/index.html

S.Korea and IMF agree on rescue package - radio
Saturday November 29, 8:36 pm Eastern Time

SEOUL, Nov 30 ( Reuters ) - South Korea and the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) have reached a ``first agreement'' on terms and conditions for rescue loans, and the finance minister was expected to announce them on Sunday, state radio said.

Korean Broadcasting System ( KBS ) radio on Sunday said that Finance Minister Lim Chang-yuel had met the head of the IMF team in an overnight meeting and reached a ``first agreement.''

Yonhap Television said negotiations were still taking place, but that an official announcement on the negotiations would be made later on Sunday.

Finance Ministry and IMF officials were not immediately available for comment.

South Korea requested $20 billion in standby loans from the IMF last weekend to overcome its worst financial crisis in decades. Lim later said South Korea would need more than $20 billion.

The KBS report said there would be an emergency cabinet meeting on Sunday afternoon to discuss the loan terms and conditions. Following the meeting, Lim would officially announce the results of the IMF negotiation.

The radio also said South Korea would start to receive the funds this week.

A report by the leading Chosun Ilbo newspaper on Sunday said the cabinet meeting would be held at 3 p.m. ( 0600 GMT ) and that an official announcement would follow.

The newspaper quoted a senior government official as saying the IMF loan was expected to be $15-20 billion and that the IMF had submitted its policy suggestions to the government.

``After taking a look at the report, we reached an agreement that it wouldn't cause a big problem on our economic operations and we are leaning toward accepting most of the IMF's suggestions and finishing negotiations,'' the senior official was quoted as saying.

The newspaper report said Michel Camdessus, the IMF managing director, would arrive in South Korea on December 4 to make a final decision on the size of the loan.

donald-----

the stage is set for a massive sell-off
before the years-end. it feels now, like
it did last month, before the 500 pt drop.

can't you FEEL it? ---yes....the stock-booger-bear
is there, waiting to steal christmas from the
sleep-walkers who will be harvested and ground
to grist before they awaken as a loaf of bread.

another BIG drop before years end....the lofty limb....again.


cherokee!;----hang-gliding-under-the-tree-----

India's Government Collapse Helps Asian Crisis To Continue
November 29, 1997 Politics@StockHouse Homepage

THE STATS
Population952,107,000CapitalNew DelhiLanguagesHindi, English, Bengali, Telugu,
Marathi, Tamil, Urdu, Gujarati,
Malayalam, Kannada, Oriya, Punjabi,
Assamese, Kashmiri, Sindhi, SanskritMonetary UnitRupee

When a government falls in a forest of misery..does anyone hear it? That seems to be the case in Asia this week as amid a sea of trouble, the world's largest democracy has crumbled. The government coalition, led by the United Front party, has lost the confidence of the Congress Party. Prime Minister I.K. Gujral has been forced to step aside as the fate of the this huge democracy is decided by the Congress party and by President Narayanan. The issue that has brought about the collapse of the government centers on a recently released 5000 page report into the suicide bombing of former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. The Congress Party withdrew its needed support for the United Front as it become known through the 5000 page report that one of the government's coalition partners, the Dravida Progressive Party, supported the 1991 assassination of Gandhi. The Dravida Progressive Party is accused of coddling the Liberian Tigers of Tamil Eclam, a guerrilla group believed responsible for assassinating Gandhi as a means of revenge for Gandhi sending Indian troops into northern Sri Lanka in 1987.

President Narayanan serves mainly in a ceremonial role, unless there is a major political crisis such as a government collapse. Narayanan has apparently given the go ahead for the Congress Party to attempt to form a government. The Congress Party was India's longest governing party as they had been in power for the first 45 years of India's 50 year democratic history. It appears that the Congress Party would need the support of the many of the members of the government it just brought down in order to form a government. While some say this is possible, it does not appear to be the most likely scenario. The most likely result of the recent political turmoil appears to be a new parliamentary election in the upcoming months.

The chance at a new series of elections may be the motivating factor of the Congress Party's decision to cause another government collapse. This is the second collapse of the government this year and it comes at a time that really demands political stability not only in India, but Asia in general. The Congress Party smells the chance to be re-elected as the party that took a stand on the memory of a great leader, and favorite of most Indians. Even seven years after his assassination, the memory of Rajiv Gandhi still lives on and he is still a favorite of many Indian citizens. The Congress Party may be making a wise political move to cause a new election as this issue may provide the ideal avenue for them to return to power and return India to a more stable political climate. The rise and fall of the last two coalition governments has caused the rupee to historic lows, making imports very costly.

For investors the political crisis in India could be viewed as a positive or a negative. On the positive side, new election could return a majority government led by the Congress Party. This would stabilize India and provide responsible, experienced leadership for an the country during this time of regional crisis. On the negative side, the rupee could continue to fall, making imported goods less affordable. While exports should theoretically rise, India's trading neighbors are pretty much all in financial crisis now, causing a snarl in regional trading. While there is a slim chance that a new coalition could be formed and new elections would not be required, it looks as though President Narayanan will dissolve parliament and call an election three years ahead of schedule. The next two weeks should provide many interesting developments in India both politically and economically.

http://www.swiftsite.com/veritas/silver.htm

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

All: How sure are we that there is a true shortage of silver at current prices? Usually gold and silver go hand-in-hand, but now there is divergence. We have two possibilities:

1 ) Long term silver rally, and gold about to rally

2 ) Silver is about to follow gold south for now

Which is it? True to form, I have not sold my silver stocks, but I do have some XAU shorts.

Troubles? I don't think so. I have it on high authority that "the fundamentals are sound"

1 ) 32,000 ounces of gold = 1 ton of gold
2 ) 1 ton of gold valued at $312.50 = $10 million
3 ) 100 tonnes of gold valued at $312.50 = $1 billion
4 ) 2,500 tonnes of gold valued at $312.50 = $25 billion
5 ) Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal wrote that $25 billion worth of gold was loaned out during 1996. Prices were higher then. Still, this implies that at least 2,000 tonnes were loaned out.
6 ) According to the IMF monthly statistics, central banks own 896 million ounces of gold.
7 ) Repeating #1, 32,000 ounces = 1 ton.
8 ) 896 million ounces = 28,000 tonnes.
9 ) Extrapoling the data from yesterdays Wall Street Journal, at least 13,000 tonnes of gold have been loaned out by central banks since 1990.
10 ) I believe, the IMF reports owned gold
11 ) By taking the 28,000 tonnes that central banks own and subtracting the 13,000 tonnes they have leased = 15,000 tonnes remaining in central bank's vaults.
12 ) The United States owns 1/4 of all central bank ( monetary ) gold.
13 ) Either every central bank vault ( except the US ) is now virtually empty -- i.e., they have no gold left in their vaults. Or, the US has been a heavy player in gold leasing -- meaning the US has little gold left, while other central banks have some gold remaining.
14 ) If the Wall Street Journal article is correct, the Sh** is about to hit the fan. Many central banks are already out of gold. And the rest have their vaults half empty. By these mathematics, gold supply from leasing MUST decline in the next few year. There is no choice. The physical gold is gone.

Not very long..........

November 21, 1997: The Platinum Eagle was first made available for sale in Japan Friday, Nov.
21st. Platinum was pressured downward by the continuing Japanese financial meltdown and
pessimism over gold.

turn to page 56 of the Barron's 12/1 and look at FIASCO: Blood in the Water of Wall Street.

My pick, Morgan Stanley, well Goose, their derivative boys have been
doing the naughty with Japanese clients! Hard to believe, I know, but
there it is.

The author, one Frank Partnoy ( much disliked by the reviewer,
incidently ) states "...now i was learning that in Tokyo, Morgan Stanley's Japanese clients seemed to be committing outright fraud."
Mr. Partnoy was distressed! Shocked! He took his millions and Walked,
as any ethical, right-minded person would.
Read it! Unfortunately Goose, I didn't see any books or articles about ING ( your pick ) . Well, maybe next week.
yours for many whistles blowing

Aurator, if you get Barron's DON'T read the last sentence of this
review!

JTF: Silver has been undervalued relative to gold for a long time. About 3 year ago, the gold-to-silver price ratio hit 100. Now the ratio is down to 57. Historically, the ratio has ranged from 10-to-1 to 20-to-1.

However, silver is much rarer in the 20th century than it has been previously. Today ( globally ) , 7 ounces of silver are mined for every 1 ounce of gold. About 1 century ago, 16 ounces of silver were mined for every 1 ounce of gold.

When privite individuals remonitize gold and silver -- throught their purchases as an alternative to the paper in our collapsing monetary system -- the gold-to-silver price ratio will probably come back to its historical price ratio. With silver much rarer now than it was a few centuries earlier, it will probably over-shoot that ratio.

Eventually, the gold-to-silver price ratio will probably come back closer to the 10-to-1 level. That means, that at $300 gold, silver should be at $30 -- instead of $5.20. However, this convergence will probably be gradual -- with gold prices rising rapidly, and silver prices rising geometrically.

Puetz- I believe that the US has been in the thick of instigating this gold decline..but like they say it aint over till the fat lady sings...and the US dumping gold will be the final move of this golden bear..then watch out....

SDR Don't read it? can't. What is it?
Did ya see our synchronicity earlier today ?

sharefin -- Your 20:00 is well advised for both bull and bear camps. Over at Avid, giving this kind of 'advice' would get you a, "Don't do that again, or else..." Something about lawyers, I think.

It's one thing to say, "I like gold...", but it is quite another to say buy it because it's going up by...

Then again, what do I know? I can't even make up my own mind half the time... :- ) )

Another posted an eye popper at 15:53. 9,000,000 oz change hands
$2.6 billion. If true this could be the bottom. Check it out.

SDRer: I also read the Partnoy review in Barron's. Here is what I found most enlightening: "He also labors energetically to explain the workings of his own firm, at one point devoting 9 pages to analyzing a financial product so immense and complex that it generated $74.6 million in fees for Morgan Stanley. The beauty of such a product, he asserts, was that it enabled the buyer to book a huge profit immediately, while concealing mammoth downstream losses for many years."

The review went on to say that Japanese institutions were especially attracted to these derivatives. The implied reason ( my own guess ) : The Japanese wanted to book huge current profits ( to offset their real losses ) so their Profit-and-Loss statements would look good. However, this only delayed the losses -- as the derivatives matured, the companies that bought these derivatives would eventually have to report the losses.

In other words, a number of Japanese institutions were hiding their losses with these derivatives -- as we found out last week with the failure of Japan's 4th largest broker. The question that's begging now: Which other Japanese institutions are hiding losses? Only Morgan Stanley knows.

Aurator: I really can't be the one, well, just don't read it. It's
nothing ( and the reviewer was in quite a foul--or should that be fowl over the holdiay?--just forget ALL about it, OK?

Yes I did. It was a Miracle that is an omen. Just as is the news story on my ISP homeport that hasn't changed for four days ( Japan calls for calm )
as you know, I collect unusual indicators like the TWO above...BIG day
for me!

The 20:58 sight looks REALLY good! But what is it in Canada. mmmh, not the CB or anything...?? I'll give it a whorl...I like to get my computer on that too! Great find ( if we can access it ) .
ignis aurum probat, miseria fortes viros

KCTrader -- No matter how I look at gold on the charts, IT'S UGLY. Regardless of the analysis techniques I apply, and I have created a 'few', I can't seem to get any roses to grow in this garden.

I have to believe that this currency debasement that are witnessing taking place before our eyes has to affect the gold price in dollars sooner rather than later. How much 'credit' can we create before it's so obvious that inflation is here full blast? For all those who say inflation is dead, how come the price of a new car or truck ( in the U.S. of A. ) always seems to be going up year after year? Everyone needs shelter, food, and energy. Isn't it convienient that those 'components' are considered 'volatile' and subject to wide swings in the inflation indexes.

Perhaps gold will surprise me one fine morning, or maybe in the afternoon. As for what month in what year that will happen, I aint got a clue....

Sweat: I just read Another's posting. The problem with it was: He talked in circles. If gold goes down, he can claim he was correct. If gold goes up, he can claim he was right. Mystics and psychics normally talk in circles, so they can never be wrong. Another is using the same tactic. If Another could be more specific, stating that gold is either going up or down ( and in what time frame ) , then it would be easy to evaluate his predictions.

Mike Steart @20:23
Mr. Rukeyer's aversion to gold makes what would otherwise be a
rather tiresome sales program almost bearable ( a word Mr. Rukeyer
would only use in association with gold ) . It's like an illness.
Be patient. Better yet, don't watch.

Anybody find the Saudi talk of increasing their oil output at this time, curious? Do they need money to, or is this the 'price' for keeping a few of our 'toys' in the area?

NBRs guest on Friday was Jean Eviard ( sp? ) who runs a gold fund ( my condolences ) . His comments about the opaqueness of the gold market made me feel better about being wrong for so long. Hell, if an 'expert' can't get it right...

It seems that, one by one, the gold stocks are hitting their '93 lows and ( ! ) taking those lows out. I guess it's time to crank up the CD-Rom, "Red Alert" coming up by RUSH... I knew this PC was good for something. :- ) )

Good night all. It seems like most of you are just plumb tired from shopping...:- ) )

Yes! I found that rather disingenuous, as he had also made mention
of the fact they sold products to clients who "frequently didn't know what they were buying." One is tempted to point out that Mr. Partnoy,
et.al. might have provided 4 or 5 pages of explanation to those
clients.

But perhaps even more interesting to remember that MS made a BIG
push into ( 1 ) Brazil and ( 2 ) India what nasty little surprises
might be lurking there?

donald---

chaos and flux are in control of your source-----

Can anybody tell me why the US CB is NOT threatening to sell it's gold reserves when all this threat of CB selling originates from the US and Europe?

SDRer my 20:58

Yes, that database resides at Simon Frazer University in B.C. I think we need someone with an account at the University, or who knows their way around unix

http://www.sfu.ca/~rdl/dlib/data/times/imf/index/992.html

what say kitco-computer-techies, can we get that info?

BTW SDR your latin got the better of me!

Bob M: Yeah, the US is behind it and they ain't dumb. The US may be considered a safe haven for now in bonds, but the US will repay those 30 year bonds with paper, which you could then use for your toilet.

The US wants more gold for itself.

life is not a bowl of cherries

Do you have any information about Pt, Pd and other PGM production ratios? I heard somewhere that the Ag/Pt mining ratio was about 9 to 1 a few years ago, but have never seen anything about palladium, rhodium or iridium.

Panda: The US wants deflation in the minds of people so they ( fools ) can pump money into bonds and other risky investments. By increaing oil output, price of oil must go down. Therefore, products that get manufactured will cost less to produce, hence lower prices. This will keep the stock market bull going, but it's going to crash and crash big, of course, WHEN is the question.

223

The below is the ratio of occurrence of these elements at the earth's surface, I seem to recall that the ratio of recoveries relative to each other would be the same


Metal Parts per million by weight
Silicon 277,200.00
Magnesium 20,900.00
Zinc 132.00
Nickel 80.00
Copper 70.00
Silver .10
Palladium .01
Gold .005
Platinum .005
Rhodium .001
Iridium .001

All.. South Korea - IMF talks break down in Final Stage..
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971129/news/stories/imf_3.html

From the URL below, it appears the Research Data Library offers
unlimited access ( from your original url, I think this is the one
we're interested in )
but ( isn't there always )
when I go to the next level down, my browers ( Netscape ) gives
me one of those terse, unhelpful screens; as I know I ( or my ISP )
am having problems, do you want to give it a whirl?
please report back. thank you.

http://www.lib.sfu.ca/www_menus/subjects/ALPHA.htm#rjump

Now some reports say talks continue and some
say no.. Interesting anyway.. Looks like the
South Koreans rather not close some banks..Keep tuned..

For Puetz

I read your analysis on gold lease drawdowns from

central banks with interest.

However, I raise the obvious question. Are these

loans gross or net ?? Are they cumulative ?

In other words, LOANS are listed but what about

repayments of loans? Has none of this gold been

repaid?? I be very pleased if that were the case, but

somehow I doubt it ( hope I'm wrong ) .

Someone ( ROR? ) also pointed out that since gold

derivative transactions dwarf physical gold dealings,

the effect of central bank transactions is probably

overstated. Its an excellent point.

I also find it amazing that we cant find out how

much physical gold is in the CBs and how much is on

loan. How do these "bankers" get away with concealing

this kind of information. I believe Aurator found

a small key here - but once again Im afraid someone

may have changed the lock.

I feel that in some way this whole process has

run away with itself and the CBs simply dont know

what they are doing. Hiding information not so

much to conceal their activities but rather to cover

their respective asses.