I am beginning to believe that the market makers can fool the majority of us forever ( not we the informed of Kitco though ) . Measures of inflation are rigged to not show up when it is dollars running around overseas. Gold prices are fixed by insiders. The stock market rises and falls by sentiment.

In this information age inflation figures, gold prices, and stock prices are still fixed in the centuries old smoke filled back room.

What will bring reality back, albeit harsh, is a supply shock such as oil shortage or crop failure which will bring real ( not manipulatible dollar ) inflation. Then the continuously rolled over debts of the world will become real. Then gold will have it's day.

Please don't bring up emotional cries that I am hoping for the end of democracy. The fundamentals are already there. The bulls hope I am wrong and lose all my money in gold. The bears hope reality returns to the weakened fundamentals and their gold holdings will enrich them. Gaining wealth is relative in a democracy. There is nothing wrong with bears wanting to bite the bullet and write off the bad debts of the banks and the governments and start fresh. If we can become relatively wealthier because of our forsight is no reason to call our hopes pessimism.

To do that is to ignore all our culpability in allowing our governments and financial systems to leverage our childrens future for our current consumption.

Steve

I won't go into details tonight ( tired and want to read posts before I go to bed ) .

But, to no one's surprise, the atmosphere was as down as I have ever seen it ( only 6 years ) . None of the speaker's would say when they thought gold would bottom.
The best they could do was to say that the bottom felt like it was near. Most speakers said no need to rush to buy, and if you must buy, then buy good juniors that have lots of cash, good properties, good management and excellant public relations capabilities. If they don't have cash they may not last.

The most positive comments came from Ken Coleman, who said he thought that gold would go back to 360-370 next year. ( Last year Ken forecast gold going to 300 ) .

More later, If you like I will fill in better details tomorrow.

Has anyone heard rumor that Jan 14, 1998 is
going to be "International Buy A Gold Coin Day"?
Thought some of you might have some info?

One speaker asked, how many of your have purchased gold bullion in the last 6 months. I of course being a goose, raised my hand, but when I looked around the room less that 5% ( maybe less than 2% , very few ) raised theirs.

He then asked, how many have purcahsed non precious metals equities, maybe 30+% raised their hands.

Their lies the rub, no one buys bullion in this country.

Can't linger

Please, anyone point me ( URL ) in direction of this info, or make it available here?

Table of gold price history from January 1995 ---
Would prefer daily high/low/close, but weekly same would be good too

( Ag and Pt would be excellent too )

I have $ NZ/US conversions - someone asked for the charts, and you know how bad I am at charts, but, always time to turn over a new leaf - eh TED?


So if anyone could help, would be appreciated.

Tanx
aurator

The 2% figure confirms what a PM dealer I spoke to recently told me. But I would think a gold conference would show more.

A. Goose.
Amazing that only 2% - 5% of mankind is intelligent.
Congratulations for being a proud member of the elite.

I deduce this entirely by the fact that 30% of the masses,
Still think that there is lots of money to be made at the top of a mania.
Patience and time should reward you well.
IMHO

I figured the SF show would be alot bumped out folks that are bummed out on bad gold stocks. I was planning on attending but this Deep Vein Thrombosis makes it tough to travel.

By the way ...thank you to everyone at the site that provided me with a kind word an advice.

My gold stock advisor KT out of London England is sched. to speak on Monday. I do not think he will have anything new to say. I really would have enjoyed being there...The tickets are sitting here in front of me...I don't think it was worth risking death at 30,000 feet to hear what the folks had to say. What did you attend today? Did you receive a free gold rose for your lady?

I know i am uneducated but can someone tell me what the insiders have to gain by deflation....assuming governments confiscate by infationary tactics...what be on the flipside strategy of deflation????

Charlie

I love gold. I know many of you feel burned by losing out on the stock market runup because you bet on gold but you have to evaluate what you are going to do today based on todays reality. Forget what the stock market did over the past 5 or 10 years. Starting today it is going nowhere. In fact it will definately go down when the totality of Asian carnage is accounted for. Look at the charts, look at the news. Forget Kitco news and concentrate on the mainstream press.

The news just keeps getting worse and gold keeps getting cheaper to buy. Jewelry is starting to get thicker again. Demand is rising and mines are closing. What could be better than that?

Steve

Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:54
JTF

Ian McAvity ( who I have a lot of respect for ) said that he sees Japan making a gallant try at keeping the Nikkei above 14,309, but he doesn't think they will succeed. Once 14,000 is broken he said it could drop to 7,000.

A Goose: Ian McAvity forecast $2800 gold as it was heading above $800.

They do not have anything to gain by deflation unless:

they hold alot of liquid hard assets.....swiss franc, gold, fiat paper that may hold its value against others...which they can then convert and buy up any asset they want for 5 - 10% of the predeflation value. This is because non of the previous players will be liquid or have the ability to pay cash for the assets.People will be happy to sell their homes for pennies on the dollar just so they can escape the crime and social upheavel which would take place in a modern day deflationary spiral/depression.

Aurator
Send me an email and I will have the data you seek on the way.
What format do you desire.

---------------------------------------------------------------
Colin's Financial Charts, Quotes, News and Stock Market Crash Page
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/finan.htm#tquotns
30/11/97:

UK newspaper the "Mail on Sunday" reported that UK banks have an estimated 50 billion British pounds ( GBP ) of loans to Asia, of which GBP 1 billion may turn bad because of the Asian financial meltdown. The lending is predominantly to Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong in similar amounts. Another linkage is evident in the London property market. South East Asian owners have accounted for up to 60% of London property purchases in luxury development areas of central London. Significant amounts of the London property market is driven by the earnings of traders in the City, London's financial trading centre.

In another "Mail on Sunday" article it says:

"The Japanese are big holders of foreign investments, particularly US government bonds. If they are forced to sell, it could lead to catastrophe on Wall Street and other stock markets around the world.

Many now believe that if the US takes steps to bar cheap imports from Japan and the Far East, it will stop those countries from trading their way to recovery and could trigger a Thirties-style recession."

Most of the US Treasury bonds are believed to be held by tbe Bank of Japan. Decisions to sell them will therefore be subject to political considerations. However, $US 1 trillion of US Treasury bonds are owned by the Japanese life insurance industry, which is almost bankrupt, according to the UK newspaper "The Observer".

Reports have appeared suggesting that Japanese institutions are selling Australian and Canadian government bonds, in deference to the potential repercussions of selling US Treasury bonds.

Legally they cannot sell for less than the mortgage without a lien being attached to the new owner, right? Will the banks be anxious to force this on the borrower or will they try to help them make the loan good by letting payments slide?
Steve

SO SORRY GENTLEMEN BUT I THINK THE REAL NUMBER IS 1.2 TRILLION US DOLLARS OF BAD LOANS THE JAPANESE BANKS ARE LOOKING AT EATING. This is roughly three times worse than the US S& L bailout funded by mom & pop taxpayer.

Don't forget that as soon as the Japanese government starts closing more banks they shall be forced to liquidate assets causing a continuous sell off of equities and real estate assets .....this will in turn cause more bank failures....this will in turn cause the sell off of US stocks & bonds ( foriegn ownership of US bonds is roughly 1.2 trillion dollars ) .....this will cause all world markets to crash.... at which point they will shut the barn door after the last cow has gone to slaughter.

The Japanese are amazing at their ability to radically underestimate their problems....they are also the most racist group of people in the world....they actually think that a "great depression scenario" could never happen to them....They will do whatever is needed to avoid the big D at home even if it means repatriating ever last dollar, pound, mark, franc that ever left the nation!

PrivateInvestor
I am not patience enough nor lucky enough to get a golden rose ( even though my lady is certainly worthy ) . I am diligent, I basicly listen to everyone and everything. During lunch and some company talks I run through the floor picking up information packets. I like hearing the views of company Ceo's and newletter writers ... . More tomorrow I got to get up early, GoodNight.

I was speaking of those individual that are lucky or dumb enough to own free and clear REAL ESTATE ....MOST WILL LOSE HOME THROUGH FILING BK 7 AND FORECLOSURE. THE SMART ONES WILL SELL EARLY AND WAIT ON THE SIDELINES WITH CASH.
YOU KNOW PEOPLE ...THEY ALWAYS THINK IT ONLY HAPPENS TO THE OTHER GUY.

Take s look at your own business..Alot of mom 7 pop jewelers have been getting out when the getting is good. It is to hard to compete with the Walmarts, Zales, Fred Meyers of the world. When it hits the fan do you think people will be buying jewelery like today?

Not a chance ...they will be taking it down to the local pawn shop for five bucks a gram...or ripping it off seniors fingers if they see them wearing any on the streets.

Good Morning or Evening .....

Just a comment on mortgages...

In the thirties the gov'ts held a moratorium on payments and allowed owners to stay in their homes. It was deemed to be the wisest option...cut down on vandalism ( i.e. doors & woodwork being removed for firewood.....faucets & plumbing being stolen and sold for scrap ) .

This also reduced the amount of homeless people and staved off further ripping of the social fabric.

Having been in the mortgage business as a broker and also in the collection agency business ...I have learned one thing about debtors that

I believe is beyond refute....

"When you can't pay and have no where to go to get money to keep the

game afloat....you walk away....regardless of how noble your intentions are to honour your liabilities" IMHO

Date: Mon Dec 01 1997 00:47
Selby ( ) ID#287207:

Well, I guess Ian missed that one. I think he is correct on Japan breaking down ( below 14,000 ) though, weather it makes 7,000 or not I don't think is important. Massive damage will already be done once 14000 is breached.

Thanks ... I may see you there on Monday afternoon if the MD says it is ok to Fly. If not ...I hope you keep us updated.
AlohA

WHAT DOES CHAIN GOLD CURRENTLY WHOLESALE FOR? Retail?

What is wrong with this logic:

The US$ has climbed 25% ( give or take ) since the beginning of 1995. Meanwhile, gold is down about 25%. Doesn't this mean gold is trading right where it should be, just like a typical commodity?

Bearish sentiment, driven by way too much negative press, has depressed North American gold stocks to ridiculously low levels. However, even with all the scary stories, gold bullion continues to trade right where it did several years ago on a currency-adjusted basis. Why hasn't all the bad news driven its price to ridiculously low levels too? ( Perhaps it will, before this bear is finally put to rest. )

I think the $US has had its bull run, peaking in early August ( basis the US Dollar Index ) , and will start heading south soon. All of the flight-to-quality money flowing into the US has failed to push the index back up above the August high. When the money stops flowing in ( within the next month or two ) , and the bond index starts heading south ( as interest rate hikes are announced to stem the flows ) , foreign investors will rush to bring their money home or move it to some other "safer" place... like Europe... or gold.

This unavoidable rise in the $US price of gold ( as the $US Index falls ) , coupled with a sudden increase in investor demand, and many thousands of tons of forward sales, should make for one very explosive short-term rally in gold bullion! It makes a person want to run out and buy a few call options.

The average investor should turn their thoughts first to the junior gold producers who have been hit way more severely than the seniors. A 10% to 15% rise in the price of bullion will spark a 50% to 75% rise in share prices. Junior exploration companies will then start to come to life as the speculators return to the arena. I'm hoping for some nice 200% to 500% gains there over the next 12 months. Then, and only then, would I consider moving some of my profits into bullion ( which I believe will trade between $325 and $375 in 1998 ) as insurance against any world-wide currency crisis.

test

All:

For all who are looking for Japan to collapse under an avalanche of bad debt consider the following. I think we would all agree that the government of Japan will do all it can to fight such an outcome. The single biggest weopon they have against deflation induced by bank failure is the Yen printing press. They can create as many Yen as they like. They can make all the depositors whole and buy up the entire stock market if they wish. The only thing which could possibly stop them would be a strong decline in both their bond markets and their currency. In effect the market could destroy more than a Yen's worth of value for every Yen printed if total confidence was lost. This is what happens in hyper-inflations. While it may not be impossible for this to occur, at the moment the market is very, very, very, far from this kind of treatment of the BOJ and the debt of the Japanese government. The 10 year Yen bond is now yielding at a rate of 1.75%. This is by far the lowest yielding bond on the planet, or in other words the bond rated least likely to default or have its returns eaten by currency devaluation. While one may believe that there is a good trade in being short Yen bonds at these levels, to infer that they are nearing default is insane. If your thesis is that Japan is going to implode due to debt liquidation by banks then per force you must assume that the BOJ will be unable to monetize these debts, which impies hyperinflation and currency collapse. No how, no way.

I used to subscribe to Ian MacAvity's Delberations. Great charts and always flawed logic. He was just plain wrong most of the time.

That also happens to be the lowest yield in the history of recorded yeilds and it has not helped to stimulate the economy the way the BOJ thought it would.

ALL:

I see that the Asian currencies are taking it on the chin again tonight with most down between .5 and 2%. Gold is not taking its usually beating in the face of this action. Perhaps the sellers have just plumb run out of gold to sell. Night all.

I AM NOT SAYING THE JAPANESE WILL NOT SURVIVE...

what I am saying is that they will go through hell and back economically and the standard of living for the average salary man will be the pits!!!!

You can imagine what life will be like for the rest of the poor working slobs in the world.

That is if the BOJ can bite the bullet and dole out the meds...if not things will be far worse in the long run!

PI:

You are correct. However, in order for there to be a deflationary collapse you need much more than a stagnating ( growth near zero ) economy. You need a real strong contraction followed by a loss of faith in the government and its covenants. They may only have 0-1% GDP growth for the next five years ( although I suspect it will be much stronger ) but this is a far cry from a deflationary collapse.

Hope you are feeling better. Bon Soir.

Thanks...I am on the mend...

But I am affraid we have seen a loss of faith in the BOJ and the government by the people of Japan and investors worldwide...let us see what MOODY's comes out with in mid Dec.

BOJ should have cranked up the presses sooner....they should be printing yen like there is no manana..or there may not be for many banks and investment houses...you can bet that things will get worse when US players enter the market soon and take all of the yen savings offshore.

and good luck in the next week.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/newsid_35000/35938.stm

test

Just some thoughts. The US Dollar has been, and still is King of the Hill. Gold below $300 is a result of this. If you can figure out when the Dollar has reached its top, then you have figured out the bottom in Gold. I am thinking the Dollar is near a top and will head down. The questions I have are-- how low, how fast, and how orderly. ( howdy cherokee )

Consumer Spending Rose 0.5%
In October; Growth Still Strong

By JACOB M. SCHLESINGER
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

WASHINGTON -- Consumer spending, a main engine
of the economy's rapid expansion so far this year,
began the fourth quarter at a healthy clip.

Spurred by a 0.5% jump in personal income,
Americans increased consumption by 0.5% in
October, the biggest spending rise in three months,
the Commerce Department reported.

Spending in September was also revised upward,
to a 0.3% increase from the previously reported
0.2% rise. The department lowered its estimate of September income to a 0.3% increase from its initially reported 0.4% rise. The figures are adjusted for seasonal
factors but not for inflation.

Few economists expect consumer spending in the
fourth quarter to match the surge recorded in the previous three months. But even if spending slows over the next two months, consumption in the October-December period now
appears likely to be high enough to keep the overall
economy growing at a 3% inflation-adjusted annual
pace.

October's jump in expenditures was led by an 0.8%
increase in services, the largest such rise since July.
Demand for nondurable goods, such as food and
clothing, rose 0.3%, slightly trailing the September
pace. Demand for durable goods, big-ticket items
such as cars and refrigerators, fell for the third
straight month, by 0.2%.

The increase in personal income
was spearheaded by a 0.6%
increase in wages and salaries,
and, in particular, a 0.9% rise in
manufacturing pay. Disposable income, personal
income minus taxes, rose by 0.5% in October.
Adjusted for inflation, disposable income rose 0.3%.

The income figures are consistent with other recent
reports showing that workers are seeing some
concrete gains from the economy's expansion, both in
pay increases and in continued low prices. And, "with
inflation lower, the underlying trend in consumer
spending remains solidly positive," said Mark Vitner,
an economist with First Union Capital Markets Group
Research in Charlotte, N.C.

The one discouraging number in the October report
was the savings rate, which at 3.6% is near record
lows. The proportion of earnings that Americans are
tucking away has stayed at the same level for three
months, though earlier this year it was running above
4%.

I'm glad ANOTHER has someone on his/her side to smooth the translation. I have spent alot of time thinking about his/her posts and feel that the basic idea goes like this:

1 ) Oil is the LIFE BLOOD of modern economies.

2 ) Some time ago the Middle Eastern state ( s ) recognized that having all oil transactions and subsequent investment of wealth generated from same denominated in US$ was foolish. All eggs in one basket.

3 ) The question was what do you use to hold wealth to ensure its survival if modern economies faulter.

4 ) Precious metals are the only non-debt based store of wealth and also a culturally congruant choice.

5 ) The only problem was that the gold market was to small to absorb the amount of US$ available to purchase gold. In the case of going onto the open market gold would skyrocket and the game would be up before it started.

6 ) This is a case where a seller values a commodity more than a currency. This is not hard to understand.

7 ) It is also the case when the seller is the 800# gorilla and can't afford to be seen while it siphones gold into its vaults.

8 ) It is a case where foresighted people see major disruptions in modern economies and want to be positioned to take advantage of that fact rather than be taken advantage of by others ( as was the case earlier in this century ) .

9 ) It is also a self fulfilling prophecy.

10 ) So these nations ( or single nation ) begins to collude with insiders at CB's to support a system where it can purchase large amounts of gold off market. Forewarn sales garranteed via CB gold loans.

11 ) All this was on paper. It was a way of getting the mines to make long term commitments to these buyers.

12 ) This system was intended to be temporary in nature ( at least it was sold to the CB's as such ) . An insurance program. Who would be willing to make this a permanent arrangement since it would basicly transfer all gold to the buyer ( s ) .

13 ) The problem, as stated by ANOTHER, is that the Asians ( read this China and India ) began to use their newfound wealth to buy physical gold. Hence a competion between oil state ( s ) who have been buying paper gold and Asians who are buying physical gold.

14 ) The CB's and oil states recognized that the Asians had been in the market long enough and quietly enough to fatally imbalance the paper gold commitments. Not enough gold to meet paper commitments.

15 ) The Asians have altered the equation. Buy physical is now the operative rule since the CB's can no longer 'spot the pot' on this game ( be the garrantour of the loans ) .

16 ) Hence the German anouncement that it will not sell gold. Hence the recent 9 Mln ounce purchase at 'spot + premium'.

17 ) OIL to US$ to Gold to oil. Since the game in the past has lead to stability, now it will lead to instability as these relationships ( and how they are conducted ) are altered.

18 ) The degree of convulsion in the relationships will be because 'OIL IS THE LIFE BLOOD OF MODERN ECONOMIES'. There is so much currency involved in maintaining the flow of this life's blood that when gold is part or all of the equation then its "value" will be as the sole gate through which capital will flow for oil. There is alot of capital that needs to flow through that very small gate, hence high pressure ( high price for gold ) .

19 ) See points 5 through 9

Optimism prevails... Gold is going down while every single stock market in the world is up today ( see EBN ) .

This is my first posting. I have been lurking for the past 9 months

and must offer my congratulations to the in-depth research that most of you do. I would like at this time offer my contribution to this research.

You know that gold will eventually go up again. The big question is when? What an " investor " should do at this point is to invest in gold and get paid while waiting fort it to rise by investing in convertible bonds. You will be paid an interest on the bond, have a maturity date and participate in the rise of the underlying common share.

Following is a list of gold companies that have a convertible bond outstanding:

THE FOLLOWINGS ARE IN ( US$ )

AGNICO-EAGLE 3.5% 2004

BARRICK GOLD 3.25% 2018

BARRICK GOLD 3% 2021

INCO LTD 7.75& 2016

INCO LTD. 5.75% 2004

PEGASUS GOLD 6.25% 2002

TECK CORP. 3.75% 2006

TRIZEC HAHN 3.25% 2018 ( CONVERTIBLE IN BARRICK GOLD )

TRIZEC HAHN 35 2021 ( CONVERTIBLE IN BARRICK GOLD )

BATTLE MOUNTAIN GOLD 6% 2005

FMC. 6.75% 2005

STILLWATER MINING 7% 2003

THE FOLLOWINGS ARE IN ( CDN$ )

NORANDA MINES 5% 2007

TECK CORP. 3% 2021

This message comes to you from Montreal and for all Canadians,

( all Canadians companies issued in ( us$ ) are deductible @ 100%

for ( Registered Retirement Saving Plan )

..FWIW,Gold and DM nearing support of 285 and 1.80.We are getting
close.Real buys in gold stocks this week and next,
RYO nearing support 1 3/8.Happy trading

All: Kitco gold graph shows gold bottomed at $293US/oz at Hong Kong closing -- gold still going down, US dollar up. Not what you would expect if Japan is selling US treasuries. Even if the dollar is not in a LT rally any more, the short term - intermediate term trend is up -- head and shoulders, perhaps?

Is this a "flight to safety" to the dollar and US markets?

Thanks for your comments/update. I would certainly be
interested in general/specific info coming out of the
gold show. I normally attend the Atlanta Conference and
New Orleans ( but less often ) . The Gold Gurus have lost
some of their luster, but I have made huge money ( past
tense ) on some of their recommendations. In fact, I was
feeling bullet proof there for awhile! Even the very
level headed Adrian Day seems to be perplexed -- although
on his last hotline he recommendation nibbling at gold
stocks -- Miramar ( MAE.T ) being one. By any objective
measure Miramar, Euro and Franco Nevada are bargains, but
objective measures have lost their validity in this market.

Speed...try: http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets to get the correct world equity markets ... EBN SUCKS!!! ARROWS POINT THE WRONG WAY...Go Gold!!

http://www.limunltd.com/numismatica/other-resources/world-mints.html

Dec. Gold down 2.90 @ 2-9-4.......Good mornin all~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

What's all this talk about the cold market? I mean what do cold tablets, nasal sprays, and the like, have to do with precious metals? Like Silver, for instance now.....What?....oh...thats different..........never mind

REF: Date: Mon Dec 01 1997 06:58
Allen ( USA ) ( @ANOTHER & ALL RE: ANOTHER' POSTS )

Allen, you have painted as accurate and comprehensive picture of ANOTHERs hypothesis as I have seen to date. I would only complement it with graphical support with the 1987-1997 Charts of Dollar Price of Gold, Dollar Price of Oil and the Gold Price of Oil ( number of ounces per 100 barrels ) . They may be seen in the incisive report made by our Middle-Eastern Operative, based in London:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/gold_cost_oil.html

BillD: Thanks, I have replaced my EBN shortcut with your URL. S&P futures are up 7.40 and gold is going down. Oil is going down also -.69/barrel already. The 30 year bond yield is down to 6.03. Go prosperity!

http://www.limunltd.com/numismatica/now/current-bullion.html

There are also convertible preferreds, Amax Gold and Battle Mountain come to mind. You need to evaluate all of the companies on the list not just for the ability to mine gold but also for their prospects of being able to pay dividends and interest on the bonds. Thanks for the list.

Beware. This verse has a Moral.

When its up
It is not down
When it's flat
It is not round
When its thick
It is not thin
And when you lose
You do not win.

When its black
It is not white
When its dark
It is not light.
When its dull
It is not bright
And when you're wrong
You are not right.

When topsides up
Then bottoms down,
So learn to smile
And not to frown
Be confident
And don't be beat
And never - not ever
Admit defeat.

Hong Kong analyst Milhouse shares his latest economic and financial wisdom. Again, he draws special attention to the significance of Money Supply. Correctly he observes, If confidence in financial assets and government controlled currencies was to significantly reduce, then the total gold reserves of all Central Banks ( worth 320 billion dollars at current gold prices ) could be absorbed in an instant by private investors.

Of monumental import is his assertion that ...it must be
remembered that there are 3.8 billion ounces of gold in the world
and the supply is increasing by ( ONLY ) 1.75% each year ( probably less for the next few years due to mine closures ) , WHEREAS there are 5,300 billion US dollars in the world, and the supply is increasing by 9% each year. The end result is obvious.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse1130.html

Excellent!

Well ... COMEX is open ... let's see what kind of damage they can do!!

Who Goosed it?

Bart's Gold and Silver Charts DIFFER dramatically from the frams display. The charts show silver back up to 5.27?? Anybody got good quotes?

Dollar could suffer as Canada heads for record deficit

with countries other than U.S.

After two years of enjoying rare surpluses, Canada is heading for its biggest-ever trade deficit with countries other than the

United States.

Canada still has an overall trade surplus because of its trade with the United States, but it has fallen rapidly over the past year

because Canada's dealings with the rest of the world have taken a stunning turn for the worse.

This reversal could help to keep the Canadian dollar under downward pressure in the months ahead at a time when the Bank of

Canada has been hoping that the dollar would rise.

Continued weakness in the dollar already has forced the central bank to raise interest rates as part of its campaign to slow the

economy's growth to a more moderate pace by early 1999. A stronger dollar, because it has the same dampening effects on

the economy as higher rates, would lessen the need for rate increases.

"If I look down at this entire [trade] performance, none of it looks very promising," said Ruth Getter, chief economist at

Toronto-Dominion Bank.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19971201/ROBFront/RTRAD.html

Looks like the frame display is correct ( sadly ) ..

http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/menu.phtml

I can't believe ( in this society ) that someone actually had the NERVE to complain about something!!! Many folk's electricity was off THREE days so this article ain't entirely accurate ( what is here??? ) but here is the media's version of what went down....But first I want to repeat that UNIONS SUK and if this area isn't direct proof of that---I don't know what is!!! And cutbacks ain't the problem ( has more ta do with laziness and total incompetence......24 hours ta plow the MAIN highway after FIVE inches os snow= joke ( HAHAHAHA ) Monday, December 1,
1997
Back
The Halifax Herald
Limited


Outage sparks outcry

TOM McCOAG Amherst Bureau and JOCELYN BETHUNE

When power was restored in Advocate on Saturday, 48 hours after it went out, a
sense of relief swept through Wayne Lent.

But the feeling of comfort disappeared with the lights when the Cumberland County
village lost its power again at 11:20 a.m. Sunday.

"This is getting very frustrating, and I'm getting fed up," the upset owner of the
Harbour Lite Restaurant said after the second power outage Sunday, which lasted
about three hours.

"We lose it every time the wind comes up and it rains."

Mr. Lent was one of about 800 Advocate-area residents who lost their power
Thursday when a severe winter storm damaged 24 poles and a transmission line in
an isolated, heavily forested area.

Hundreds more, in other parts of the province, were also left in the dark because of
the bad weather.

Crews had worked around the clock since Thursday to restore power to thousands
of customers in Cape Breton and were still trying to fix the problem for about 200
people in the Sydney area early Sunday evening.

LeRoy Peach of Port Morien went 48 hours without heat, lights and computer
services following Thursday's storm.

"It was like a throwback to the old days," said the retired teacher. "I couldn't get on
the Internet."

In nearby Glace Bay, residents were warned to boil drinking water after chlorination
machinery at the water treatment plant failed during the power outage.

Mr. Peach says that going two days without power is inconceivable in this day and
age. He blames cutbacks at Nova Scotia Power Corporation.

"The company has laid off a lot of people. They have cut back, and I don't believe
they are maintaining the equipment as they should," he said.

Other customers around the province shared his sentiments.

Mr. Lent is adamant the power outages could have been averted.

"This problem wouldn't have happened if they'd replaced the rotten poles," said Mr.
Lent, who went for hours without being able to serve any customers at his restaurant
in Advocate.

"We had 50 power outages last fall and winter. We even had power outages this
past summer because the poles coming out here are rotten."

He said the company also doesn't have enough crews in the area.

"I believe they only have one emergency crew," he said.

Victor Corbin was also critical of the power company.

"I don't think too much of their maintenance system," he said. "They leave the poles
until they get so bad they can't stand a storm.

"It's happened here before. Two years ago, we had a power outage because the
wind broke the rotted poles. This is just a repeat performance."

Nova Scotia Power spokeswoman Stephanie Ryan said lines around the province
are of varying ages, but the big problem in Advocate and some other areas was that
some roads weren't cleared enough so that crews "could get in and work to get the
power restored" until Saturday.

She said the company brought in crews from other parts of the province to help
restore the power in Advocate.

She said Thursday's storm was the most damaging to the power system in 15 years.

"The heavy wet snow that fell stuck to the wire and froze, leaving them extremely
heavy," she said.

"Combine that with the high winds, and it took down new and old poles and wires.
We test our poles and wires regularly to make sure they pass standards, and if they
don't we replace them."

She said crews worked around the clock to repair the damage. As of 5 p.m.
Sunday all but about 200 customers scattered in the Sydney region and a handful on
the mainland had power.

People in Cumberland County were able to go to the Bayview Memorial Health
Centre for water, food and warmth. But centre employee Beth Reid said the hospital
was not swamped.

"Generally people were self-sufficient," she said. "Those that did come here came to
get water and to use the hospital's microwave oven to heat food."

Five emergency shelters were set up in the Cape Breton Regional Municipality,
although no one sought help from the North Sydney or New Waterford shelters.



Back

Copyright  1997 The Halifax Herald Limited

Anyone know how many pages there are in the US tax code?

Another: They will keep the price of Oil down if the price of Gold is kept low for them to buy. Is that right?

Gold @ $293.5 down from 320 - 300 etc.
Oil @ $18.50 and going down. Production being increased.

False/ misleading support of the US$ rise?

There is a pint of your favorite suds on the table and a pint of tequila for me. I don't remember what we were talking about last time but I am sure you were wrong.

Now, on to the matter at hand. If you want to read a great book try to dig up a copy of Brittle Power by Hunter and Amory Lovins. It is an excellent look at how fragile the US power grid really is. A scary book indeed.

And I thought the mood was dismal at the Gold Show yesterday. If the trend/rate of desent remains constant, we won't have a gold show next year. Heck, we will reach zero before spring. Amazing, no bounce no nothing.

This has to be a very bad sign for the currency market. I guess I will start hoarding food next.

To leave on a positive thought ( or wish/dream/prayer/prediction for the day ) , this week will see a V reversal and the bottom will be in place. My best to everyone, I am off to the sadest meeting on the planet ... the gold show.

Now the Koreans, Malaysians, Indonesians, Thais etc have some really low currencies, now coming under the direction of the IMF, what next?
Have we now turned the corner & the market will keep reaching to the sky with this IMF miracle??

The answer is obvious. The Asian nations with low currency rates will continue to purchase raw materials ( eg Iron, Steel, Aluminium, Zinc etc ) for manufacturing. These commodities will be purchased at very competitive prices. They will then flood markets such as Australia, Canada, USA, UK & Europe with super cheap items such as cars, white goods, TVs etc. This will be bad for our local manufacturers & reasonably good for importers. Price squeezes on those local manufacturers will lead to much lower profits, hence the Stocks of those types of companies will continue to fall.

I also notice that the currencies ( eg Australian & Canadian dollars ) are falling. Even though their economies are screaming for lower interest rates, that direction may end to simply defend those currencies. Unless world interest rates continue to fall overall. With the high rates being experienced in Asia now, this is not likely. Hence, banks & interest sensitive stocks will be hit. All this talk of 1987 versus 1997 & the high interest rates then compared to the low rates today is baloney. In real CPI terms, rates are reasonably high still. However, we will start to experience profit squeeze like it was never dreamt of in 1987. Even though some financial commentators claim that Central Banks learnt their lessons from the 1930's, this generation has not gone through that type of experience. Talk about text book economics.

We shall wait & see. To quote one of Australia's wealthiest men, Kerry Packer ( who is also bearish I believe ) , "I don't want a return ON my capital, I just want a return OF my capital".

Weis's newsletter recommends purchasing dec98 put 85. I looked it
up in the newspaper and see that it last traded at 4 1/2. SP 500
is at 951. What does all this mean? If the SP 500 go to 850, what might
the put be worth? If the SP 500 goes to 750 what might the put be worth?

If this isn't the right place to ask this kind of questions, please
excuse me ... Please let me know at hong@acsys.com ... or here if
it is ok.

Thank you.

Russia's Norilsk to mull ADR after share issue

MOSCOW, Dec 1 ( Reuters ) - Russia's Norilsk Nickel ( NKEL.RTS ) will consider launching an American Depositary Receipt programme when it completes a share issue, a spokesman said on Monday.

``Immediately after the share issue, the company will consider the question of launching a first level ADR,'' Igor Plotnikov told Reuters, adding the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had already approved the programme.

Russia's Federal Commission for the Securities Market is working on registering a 63 million share issue which would increase the company's capital by 50 percent.

Issue of the 250-rouble nominal price shares will raise capital to 47.3 billion roubles from 31.5 billion.

Plotnikov said Norilsk Nickel has been considering issuing level one ADRs, share-look alikes which trade abroad but do not affect share capital, for over two years.

Plotnikov said Norilsk also planned to attract and spend $500 million in debt next year.

``In principle we plan on attracting credits of $500 million next year. According to various plans, with various credit sources,'' he said. ``We calculate our needs at half a billion dollars of credit.''

Norilsk is the largest producer of nickel in Russia and the leading platinum group metals miner.

Norilsk common shares had not traded since Friday's $6.23 close and preferred shares ( NKEL_p.RTS ) had fallen to $4.50 at 1223 GMT from $5.00 on Thursday when it last traded.

http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/9711/30/iraq.pm/

Steve-Perth: I think those who make their living thing that your view of the Canadaian $ is the exact opposite of the correct one. Even The Canadian Central Bank is about to get on side with the need forCanadian interest rates to begin to match the US rate. What Canada needs is higher rates not lower as you suggest. Maybe everybody here should have the opportunity to get their facts straight. Read it here.
29, 1997

Sandbagged by a sluggish C$

Gordon Thiessen was so focused on inflation he didn't see trouble
coming

By DAVID THOMAS
Economics Reporter The Financial Post
With the economy chugging along at a pace that ranks it tops among western
industrialized nations, Gordon Thiessen's biggest worry has been inflation, and
there's no sign of it down the road.
All of a sudden, the Bank of Canada governor's attention has been diverted from
the distant horizon to a clunking sound under the hood.
It's the sound of the currency breaking down.
The engine is running at a good clip, with inflation still dormant at 1.5% and the
bank forecasting 4% growth in gross domestic product next year.
But Thiessen and the bank are now having to contend with a battered C$, a
problem it appears they didn't see coming.
"It's certainly going to jeopardize the bank's forecast for 4% growth," says Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC Wood Gundy Securities Inc.
This is not the situation the central bankers expected to be in at this stage in the economic cycle, Rubin says. So what went wrong?
A lot of popular blame for the C$'s woes has been placed squarely on Asia-related turmoil in the markets, but the currency's problems can't be blamed on events abroad, Rubin says.
"The market's expectations were raised back in the spring," he argues. That's when
Thiessen started to signal that rates hikes, which strengthen the currency, were on
the way.
But the feeling in the market is that it has been too little, too late -- especially since
Thiessen has been telegraphing moves all year but has been slow to deliver.
Even those who say the governor has taken the right approach insist the bank is
suffering from a bit of a credibility problem in the market.
"The market has been getting a little frustrated with
what it sees as bank jaw-boning," says Randall
Powley, senior economist at Scotia Capital Markets.
Tuesday's hike in the bank rate to 4% was the third
rise this year.
Thiessen acted in late June when the C$ was under
pressure, then again on Oct. 1. Both moves were said
to be focused on distant inflation, not the C$.
In the latest increase, the bank changed its tune.
The bank had kept interest rates low in order to give
the economy a little extra gas to run on.
After recent central bank projections called for the
economy to hit capacity somewhere around the end of 1998, Thiessen started
sending signals that rate hikes were on the way as a pre-emptive strike at inflation.
But now monetary policy has turned its attention from fine tuning for distant
inflation to immediate, emergency treatment for the C$.
As a result, economists predict the bank may be forced to raise rates further and
faster than it had planned.
According to Andrew Pyle, a treasury strategist for ABN Amro Bank Canada, the
problem lies with the central bank for cutting rates too much to begin with.
"They probably did three or four rate cuts too many last year," Pyle says.
The Bank of Canada cut the bank rate nine times last year for a total drop of 225
basis points, from 5.5% to 3.25%.
As of Tuesday's rise, the bank rate has been hiked back up 75 basis points. That's
still about 50 basis points too few, Pyle calculates.
Looser monetary conditions stimulate the economy by making borrowing cheaper
but they have also created a spread between Canadian and U.S. rates that
international markets find to be too wide, he says.
With the bank rate at 4%, that still creates a large spread in treasury bills and bond
rates between Canada and the U.S., where the equivalent Fed funds rate is 5.5%.
"There are not too many people in the world that are going to buy Canadian T-bills
at a negative 125-basis-point spread to the U.S. return," says Rubin.
The prospect of a rising C$ provided one good reason for international investors to
buy into the Canadian market but that, obviously, hasn't materialized.
In fact, the C$ has lost nearly US4.5 since the beginning of the year and closed at
US70.18 Thursday, its lowest in more than 11 years.
It closed Friday at US70.23, up US0.05, after another round of open-market
intervention by the Bank of Canada.
On another front, the strong economy has consumer spending up, making domestic
spending a real driver of the economy.
That's positive news but it has a price tag, because soaring sales of imported goods
have contributed to a widening current account deficit.
The size of the current account deficit will be revealed on Monday, and the news
isn't expected to look good.
Economists forecast the deficit will widen to about $20 billion, and if the numbers
come in worse than expected, the C$ may take another hit -- even if the bank raises
rates again.
The picture will become cloudier, if not bleaker, if commodity prices continue to
unwind, taking the steam out of exports.
Until it moved last Tuesday, the central bank had opted to sit on the sidelines
during the market upheaval late last month, in order to get a handle on how virulent
the Asian flu would become.
But Pyle says Thiessen is only now waking up to the fact that the C$ is actually
suffering from a made-in-Canada sickness.
"I think the bank is finally realizing that this is a C$ problem and not an Asian
problem."
When it calculates the effect of stimulus, the central bank gives a lot of value to a
measure called the monetary conditions index, or MCI, which is a combination of
changes in interest rates and the level of the trade-weighted C$.
When the currency weakens or money supply increases, the economy is left with
"looser" or stimulative conditions, which show up on an MCI graph as a push into
negative territory.
To offset currency weakness and "tighten" conditions, the bank has a few tools at
its disposal, but the big hammers are a stronger C$ or higher interest rates.
In its recent semi-annual report on monetary policy, the bank revealed it was
counting on getting more tightening from a stronger C$.
Under that scenario, it would have been able to pursue a policy of fewer and
smaller rate hikes.
As Lvesque Beaubien Geoffrion Inc. chief economist Clment Gignac pointed out
in a recent report, that gamble may have failed.
"By continuing to hope that monetary conditions will be tightened, mainly by a rise
in the C$, does the bank run the risk of the opposite effect?" Gignac speculates.
Adds Rubin: "I think the bank believed it could talk up the C$ and that it wouldn't
have to raise interest rates that much."
Powley says Thiessen's hands have been tied during the recent market shakeup
because rate hikes during periods of instability tend to have a diminished impact. In
fine-tuning the economy, it seems a lot of attention is paid to optics, and crisis
management does not inspire confidence in the market.
"If they'd moved earlier, they would have got more of an impact out of the
increases," Powley says.
Instead, the bank has shifted to the defensive, and the need for the hikes is
growing.
"Dollar defence moves tend to generate more dollar defence moves," he says.
Through all this uncertainty, strong economic growth, low inflation and a
disappearing federal deficit point to a rally in the C$ ahead, once the current battle
settles.
"The C$ is fundamentally undervalued," says Powley, who estimates that the C$'s
true purchasing power should be more than US$85.
Many economists at Canada's major banks were calling for a C$ valued at more
than US80 a year ago. They're scaling back forecasts to the mid-70s for next year.

Here is a most interesting article from the St. Petersburg Times on the worsening debt and credit situation in Russia.. http://www.spb.ru/times/current/lenenergo.html

"I pledge allegiance to the Central Bank,
of the United Branches of Central Banks,
and to the serfdom for which it stands,
one slavery under bureaucrats, divisable
by decimal points, with compound interest
and slavery for all."

nomercery: As it says below the trade figures are bad because things are so good consumers are buying imports. The economy is overheating --it doesn't have the Asian flu. Should get worse in the next few months as Canadians decided to buy either then cheaper Lexus or the cheaper Q45.

I am beginning to understand how the Kitco consensus on a rising gold price since the spring of '96 in the face of a $125 drop occurred. Facts mean nothing here if they get in the way of the gloom and dome explanation for all real or imagined events.

Gold Mining Outlook

by Steven Jon Kaplan

Gold touched $293 per ounce at 8:40 a.m. EST on Monday, its lowest spot price since March 12, 1985.

Updated @ 8:55 a.m. EDT, Monday, December 1, 1997.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities and precious metals ended slightly higher on Friday, though the COMEX and many commodities floors were closed for the extended Thanksgiving holiday. After closely approaching $295 per troy ounce on Thursday in Europe, gold recovered to end in London at $296.95, up twenty-five cents from Wednesday's New York spot close, while silver gained two cents.

As the third-world stock market collapse has spread to more and more nations, the reaction has followed a predictable path: capital flees from the country currently undergoing the sharpest drop in its equities, thus causing its currency to collapse in tandem. Initially this money was going to other countries in the same region, but since many were burned in the early months by shifting assets from Thailand to Malaysia or Indonesia and then to Hong Kong or Korea, the areas considered "safe" have narrowed to first-world economies. As a result, the equities and currencies of these "safe" areas have been inflated by money fleeing the financial markets of the "hit" countries. Since those places which have so far been hardest hit are those which traditionally make the largest physical purchases of precious metals, especially gold, the drop in the gold price caused primarily by a huge surge in gold loans and short selling has been further exaggerated. Since the third-world economies are fundamentally as sound as their first-world counterparts, with their GDPs increasing faster in most instances, eventually the same factor which caused the third-world financial markets to drop--excessive equity overvaluation--will hit the first world. When this occurs, the dollar and the other affected European currencies will realign themselves with their third-world counterparts in ratios similar to where they were before the crisis began. More importantly, the U.S. dollar and U.S. equities will no longer be seen as a safe haven, so the desire for alternative investments such as precious metals and shares will be most acute just as stronger physical buying re-emerges from the third world.

The Bank of Italy stated through a spokesman Monday that it "has not sold gold and does not intend to do so. The BOI believes gold must be part of its official reserves."

I would hedge your bet against the "facts" and buy alot of gold now while it is cheap.

tolerant1: I hedged my bet against the Kitco consensus 12 months ago and have doubled my money in the that time and many have done a lot better of course. I intend to buy gold after the bottom not before.

I am glad that you have done so well. Cheers to you. However, I think that trying to find the bottom in gold is a very deadly game at this juncture in time. Hence my comment.

You will not catch the bottom in my opinion. Nor will you see the drop in the market coming.

Both actions will be rattle snake quick IMHO.

Hong Kong analyst Milhouse shares his latest economic and financial wisdom. Again, he draws special attention to the significance of Money Supply. Correctly he observes, If confidence in financial assets and government controlled currencies was to significantly reduce, then the total gold reserves of all Central Banks ( worth 320 billion dollars at current gold prices ) could be absorbed in an instant by private investors.

Of monumental import is his assertion that ...it must be
remembered that there are 3.8 billion ounces of gold in the world
and the supply is increasing by ( ONLY ) 1.75% each year ( probably less for the next few years due to mine closures ) , WHEREAS there are 5,300 billion US dollars in the world, and the supply is increasing by 9% each year. The end result is obvious.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse1130.html

On picking a gold bottom: I suspect you are right. If you take the monthly gold chart right now, hold it upside down, and look at it while standing in front a mirror, you see 1980 all over again.

Hey buddy----I am NEVER wrong and I prefer RUM....Re-fragile power grid in USA---might be fragile but this once has already broken in ten thousand little bitty pieces......XAU down .68 and DOW up 32 ( same old-same old ) ....Bro: YOU got 14 days ta go~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Good morning Ted. What a coincidence. I am never wrong and prefer rum also! ( with cola and a piece of lime )

Tolerant1: Now you are doing it. I didn't say catch the bottom I said after the bottom. I don't want to get into a debate on this it is self evident that it is better to buy when gold is going up than when it is going down. If you are lucky you might catch the bottom but after it is rising the chances of it continuing the rise are better than while it is still in an 18 months $125 decline. I have gave my reasons for a $250 bottom some months ago but they are now so old as to be out of date. But the overall idea that buying while it goes up holds.

Steves specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

BREAKING STORIES:

High Interest Rates & Unemployment to result from IMF $88bn deal
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971202/world/world4.html

Debt blowout sinks $A, revealing soft underbelly
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971202/business/business3.html

Get your CV in - Be a director of Australias Reserve Bank
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971202/business/business10.html

A$1.6bn current account blowout through higher imports
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971202/news/news1.html

Aussie investors see benefit in staying home
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971202/invest/invest5.html

Deficit accelerates plunge in $A - first sign of Asian Crisis
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971202/market/markets2.html

The vultures move in on Australian Wool Stockpile
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971202/news/news5.html

IMF fears separate Asian rescue fund
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971202/world/world1.html

Seoul argues over $60bn aid
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971202/world/world2.html

Bonds spread signals tight Budgets
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971202/market/markets3.html

Taiwan market drops by 5% in one day
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971202/market/markets4.html

Tomahawk Missiles do not perform as well as expected
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971202/feature/feature1.html


IN REVIEW:

Weak will perish as cash crisis worsens
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971201/world/wtokyo.html

Australian Treasury's secret ban on Japanese banks
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971201/news/news1.html

Asians man the protectionist barricades
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971201/market/markets3.html

Russian Nukes for sale
http://www.forbes.com/Forbes/97/1201/6012264a.htm

Asian Fallout affects Germany
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971129/world/world6.html

China's bank bubble due to burst: experts
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971128/world/world1.html

A quick history lesson shows that booms do bust - The Maverick
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/market/markets2.html


BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/blizard.htm

Rum eh, so sorry. Cheers. Yeah, my prediction is looking sickly. Oh well. I am wrong much of the time and never too proud to miss out on having a good laugh at my expense. Such is a life.

How do you techies read the siz7 chart this morning. Looks like a triple or quadruple bottom over last one day plus a few hours. gold interesting also with big V bottom and potential for upside down head and shoulders. Or, am I dreaming?

Thanks once again for all the great headlines and information you provide. Noticed the donation material on your WWW page. Consider it done, one donation coming from tequilaville. Cheers to ya!

SELBY: Wish Australian rates were as low a Canada's. The Asian crisis will be more reason why they will go up. An interesting argument I have come across is that when rates are higher, pensioners earn more interest on their savings accounts, spend more, & drive the economy. With rates lower, the reverse applies, & they spend less. In contrast, low interest rates are better for business. With rates going up in Canada & possibly in Australia, the business community will be hit with higher loan repayments, adding more likelihood to a depressionary scenario.

I do put a rider on the Eastern sea board, where they are gearing up for the Yr 2000 Olympics & flow on business benefits. That seems to over-ride everything else going on around the world.

PS. Selby, you are so clever! You leave the rest of us here at Kitco to shame!

Check this out

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/624

LONDON ( BBC ) : It was announced today that "Barclays to close BZW share trading"

"Banking group Barclays is to withdraw from equity activities in the Japanese market."

"The bank announced the IMMEDIATE CLOSURE of its BZW share trading
operations, after it failed to find a buyer for its BZW Securities ( Japan ) Ltd subsidiary."

A Seaman's Axiom: "When in a sinking ship, FOLLOW THE RATS!"
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html

TED
Problem solved by Buckminster Fuller. He reckoned we could link the entire world ( except NZ! ) into a global power grid. Shunt electricity from light side to dark side, cos most electricity generation not at full capacity during daylight. Reason for NZ being excluded? over 1500 km from Aussie ( Tasman sea aka "The Ditch" ) just outside efficient electricity transmission range.
Insomniaurator

Donald: Rum and coke with a lime--isn't that a Cuba Libra? Also, would you kindly post the xau/spot au ratio.

Ted: Check out MGS. Metrogas/Buenos Aries. 1.2 million customers. 35% owned by British Gas. Paying somewhere near 9%. ADR's about 7 3/4. No Argintine tax on dividend to US owners.

Go Gold!! but diversify.

Mornin Donald....Geniuses think alike!!! Ever try it with lemonade?? ( RUM not gold ) .....Weather: Overcast and 36 degrees....XAU down .77 and DOW up 82-----glad ya got a sense of humour Tolerant1.....now up 92~~~~~~~

Yeah, they will get to it no problem. Should be fun to watch the decline of the beast when all hell breaks loose.

Selby:

It is admirable to buy after the bottom, because this implies that your purchase only has risk to the lowest price in recent history. The question is, how do you know when the bottom is in? A few months back we had a strong rally which broke downtrend lines and all sorts of other technical silliness. We went from a 'bottom' of 314 or so to a top in the mid 330's. How was one to know that this was not the bottom? Is there a magic rally number which will make certain that the 'bottom' is in? If gold rallies 50 dollars in a few weeks how do we know that the bottom is in? Even if the bottom is in one would still have a 50 dollar risk in a retest of the bottom.

I agree with you that it is important to look at the facts and try to devine some reason for what might happen in the future which fits with reality. This is the only way to get an edge. I disagree with the premise that commodity markets which are in decline are destined to decline further. I have spent much time and effort trying to devise a systematic means of making money on the short side of commodity markets to complement the long side system which we have in place. Simple trend following strategies on the short side of commodities have not worked for the past 10 - 15 years. This is an empirical fact which can be demonstrated. This does not say anything about the gold market but it does say the in general the trend is not your friend in declining commodity markets.

Thank you. Right to the point.

Nicely done!

G'day mate!!!...This damn machine works better when the 'juice' is flowing ( electricity not RUM ) .....Are you on the Cape Breton power grid??

The book will have to be re-written. Malaysia, the Financial Mouse that Roared.

I look to this little country to wreak havoc on the West and the IMF. The battle cry has been in for a long time. It is getting louder and louder. We do not want the round eye IMF to enslave us.

Look to the pre-release and release of the Veneroso report to really send some sparks flying. Golden sparks.

A week ago, I applauded the Japanese government for their gutsy bailout of the Japanese banks, their willingness to admit failure. It was a well reasoned risk and it has paid off....

Again we see the US markets crashing upward to new highs and gold moving lower.... in an age of information and global markets, how can it be anything else but? Commodities are the soul of industrial societies. Silicon lies at the soul of the information society....

Selby:

I'd be interested in seeing your original posting. I remember reading it but confess that all I remember is that you said, "Why not gold at $250?" or words to that effect. Thanks, Dave.

Specifications are to be found at

http://www.cboe.com/products/cs/csmenu.html#broad

What you thinking of is Zinc....A small company called Quigley went pub;ic last year taking advantage of medical school studies that found Zinc was a very precious mineral with regards to fighting off the common cold...the product is called cold ease i think...what is needed now is a product that fights off the current virus that seems to be attacking AU and killing off all of the gold bugs...I think the CB's have unleashed biological warfare on goldbugs, " the common gold virus" has reached epidemic levels soon to be pandemic. All gold bugs may be killed off in the process...Take two asprin and call
us when gold hits $285.

Dow crashing up 1-1-3~~~~~~~~~~EB: WAKE UP!

Steve-Perth:

I agree with you that the higher interest rates in Canada and hopefully Australia's immediate future will help the pensioners and won't help business. Cooling down a booming economy is one of the problems higher rates should help to solve.

Reading a newspaper doesn't make me clever but your:

"PS. Selby, you are so clever! You leave the rest of us here at Kitco to
shame!"

comment did win me a C$5 bet with a buddy that personal attacks would start once the bubble of gloom and doom was threatened by reality. He is in Minneapolis so its U$ 3.50 to him.

Dave in CO: I'd be interested in reading it as well but it was in November of 1996 I believe and we can't get there from here at the moment. I was very busy with the replies and didn't think to keep a copy. The rationale which, drew even more flak, was in August or Sept of this year and I don't have a copy either. In outline gold would go below its average cost of production which a year ago was thought to be $275. Now it is thought to be about $317 But as the higher cost mines close the average is declining. So such a rational in the face of the tremendous knowledge here did seems a bit less than was required to make a useful decision. But all the knowledge in the world has not helped those who have seen gold about to rise for the past 18 months or so. Maybe it is beter to have a little helpful knowledge or even a lucky guess than all the info here that has helped so little.

REF: Date: Mon Dec 01 1997 06:58
Allen ( USA ) ( @ANOTHER & ALL RE: ANOTHER' POSTS )

Allen, you have painted as accurate and comprehensive picture of ANOTHERs hypothesis as I have seen to date. I would only complement it with graphical support with the 1987-1997 Charts of Dollar Price of Gold, Dollar Price of Oil and the Gold Price of Oil ( number of ounces per 100 barrels ) . They may be seen in the incisive report made by our Middle-Eastern Operative, based in London:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/gold_cost_oil.html

All:

Gold is getting hammered, crude oil is getting smashed and the dollar is soaring. Why can't the bond market rally?

test

Just watching my gold spread soar and my Mark spreads sore.....oh my....er.....uh.....oh no.....uh.....oh well.....

Too bad about your 'lectricity. There is a bright side to everything though.........I'm just not sure what the bright side is. Perhaps it's that it made up your mind to which country you want to live ;- ) btw Lakers won AGAIN last night.....uh huh...go gold ( ?!?! ) ....yeah right...

D.A. - I love a good bottom....hehe...

Perhaps all this market action this a.m. ( US ) is a result of some pent-up fury from not being able to play the markets for more than two days. I suspect it will 'level' a little toward the end of the day. Where are all the posters to predict an island reversal or an exhuastion gap or something overly-optimistic. And where is GSC to tell us the Bull is gearing-up to slay the bear and this event will happen anyday now??!? I suppose GSC is posting under nom-de-plume ( is that how it is said ) . Aurator, can I have some Latin thrown in here?? ;- )

away...to follow the WELL-ESTABLISHED-TREND-THAT-IS-MY-FRIEND

wakingup

Selby: Your friend's holding of silver through the rise and decline of

the '80's is an interesting story. I have held many stocks through a similarprocess. While I can't speak for your friend in my case it has given me insight into my own personality and has been a valuable learning experience. I found it helps me remove the emotion and ego from my investing and helps clear the picture. It is difficult to know yourself but crucial to investing. It sounds like your friend learned something about himself and as he lost only his potential profit he can ride another rocket. There will always be other opportunities. Like the ones now unfolding in the gold and silver markets.

Mooney: I was 20 in the early seventies and had gold leases in the Kluane

district of the Yukon territory. Once you get colour in your pan you are hooked. BC is a beautiful place. You are lucky to live there.

EB:

Since your mood is so upbeat why don't we institute our wager. I say the next $10 move is up against the next $10 move being down. I will be happy to wager for as many of your gold tiddly winks as you think it is prudent to risk.

Given Allen's interpretation of Another's message, why is gold being crushed on the open market? Am I correct in suspecting that the shorts are caught in such a massively untenable position that they will be ruined, and have no alternative except to keep expanding their positions until they simply can't borrow anymore?

Japan- the govt stated they would use public funds for the banking crisis. people may sell their bonds and buy stocks. Korea- market fell because people fear severe conditions for the IMF package but it should be regarded positive as companies will have to restructure. Gold- rumors the IMF will sell gold in order to help korea didnt help... US stocks should profit because the Asian recovery will slow the american next year.

I went back and looked at martin Zweig conditions for big bear markets. The worst bear markets in history ahve 3 things in common 1 ) p/e's over 20-we got it 2 ) inverted curve- were getting close 3 ) delation-the big question,we certainly have disinlation-look at copper, aluminum,C$, A$,gold, crashing Yen

the last time all 3 conditions were met was 1929, correction was 89.2%, since then those three conditions have not come together. If 2 conditions are met the smallest correction has been 25.2% in 1966, but the usually go deeper.

funny thing about 1929 was that after 5 months of range trading/consolidation ( much like we have witnessed since July 97 ) it was followed by a final upside break which propelled the market to final highs
....as the market tends to rally toward the end of December and into early January, we could be seeing a similar setup

SELBY: The show is not over until the fat lady sings....
I think our reasons for rates to rise are quite wide & varied between us both. You are worried about "growth" breaking out or catching up to the USA.

I am more concerned about rates going up for currency defence reasons. However, that will be one of the contributing factors that will lead to further lack of confidence in the overall world economy, adding to the deflation/depression to come.

I am not a betting man. I am just a researcher. I am not that fussy where I research. Peter Lynch confirmed some of his stock tips by walking around shopping centres. You make money from good information. That is what all my millionaire clients keep saying.

One thing I am noticing is that commercial loans are easily available, at rather low interest rates. The quality of debt being issued now is suspect. The rates are OK, to high in real terms, but the creditworthiness of some of the borrowers is of much concern. Particularly if rates hike upwards during a currency protection period. That is why I have been cautious about bonds over cash.

SHAREFIN: My views exactly on market trend. If DJ goes well past 8300 then we are still in L/T Bull Market. Love to see the PE's then. High PE's are only sustainable with high EPS. I will love to find them when the Asians are importing their hearts out into the USA. It may take 2 yrs or so for this to fully play out, as did the 1929-32 period. This competitive currency devaluation deal will sneak up on the yanks harder than they realise. Even though they produce & consume much domestically, you only need a certain percentage market share to act as a lever on the rest of the prices in a given market.

Interesting thought. May be cheaper for Asians to import than to produce in the USA soon. They may shut down their plants just to import into the USA, just as Nissan did in Australia a few years ago.

News Server: Thank you again for the Inference URL you gave us a week or so ago. Used it over the Thanksgiving holiday visit to find a lot of VERY obscure stuff for my mother-in-law, on artists that were not found with my usual search engines. Dogpatch was OK, giving more false positives that Inference.

All: Not time yet for gold, I fear. In the absence of GSC ( Are you on vacation, George? We miss you. ) , I shall paraphrase his usual: "Wait. The time will come, just not yet."

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971201/business/stories/korea_2.html

Czech shares fell around 7.7 percent after the government of Prime Minister Vaclav Klaus
collapsed over the weekend. Prague's RPIX share index fell 76.3 points to 938.8.

The Czech crown also fell to a record low of around 19.97 against the mark.

By midsession the crown traded at 19.80/82, bolstered by a rise in the Czech National Bank's
one-week and two-week repo rates to 19 percent and 18.5 percent respectively. Both rates stood
at 14.8 percent before. Other eastern European currencies weakened along with the Czech crown.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971127/japan_gold_demand_se_1.html

Steve-Perth, I think that the fat lady has been singing pretty laud but we must all be deaf. Now I know how it feels to die not by thousand stabs but by sixteenths, eights or halves or whatever the case may be.
However, the lower we go the greater it will eventually feel on the way up.
I am convinced that the gold price is indicating a severe deflation, so the gold buying opportunity is on the horizon. I would not touch the metal yet, since I think we are going under $200. There is a possibility that we will test 1977 low of $103 under this scenario. Just imagine how far the paper will fall once the deflationary collapse starts. Those people have no idea what is in the wings. The world is under tens of trillions of $$$ of debt. This amount of debt is inherently deflationary. Once the deflation sets in, no printing presses will reverse it until it runs its course.

Sorry, I went to sleep without answering your question. Gold chain wholesales between $9/gram and $14/gram for 14K depending on stock vs. fancy. Retails between 1.5X and 2.2X markup.

Steve

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971201/mof_receives_y956_bl_1.html

Steve
Dow up 125
Dax up 120
Ftse up 110

I would like to see the Gold down $15, Dow up 250 - SP500 up 25.
Then I want to know, what AG's going to say tomorrow?
Just see what happens when he says,
"That's enough IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE."

What we are seeing, is the natural response, of a mania at the top.
The bulls have to go crazy, before they fall over.
You can't use astro, elliot, or any commentator, to pick what's coming.
The timing of the crash, will be guessable, but not predictable.
It will catch all, and everyone, out.

This current state, is called the denial phase.
Denial that anything is wrong,
Within the financial markets of the world.
Denial that shares are over priced, as never before.

Denial that there are economical problems,
Within the global world.
That are affecting events today,
And will have worse effects, tomorrow.

The markets work, on forward knowledge,
What will be better tomorrow, will be priced in today.
Today, the markets choose to deny,
What is coming tomorrow.

Economic turmoil!
When this has been priced in,
Markets will be much lower.
"It will never get better than this."

The markets may go higher,
But I doubt, we will see another bull leg happening.
To much is already known, of what is coming,
What is here already, is bad enough.

Any more, will break the proverbial camels back.
IMHO

Missing_link:

The little woman is hankering for some diamond earrings. Are you a diamond dealer?

Donald
How many Governments, has the world lost, in the last month?
How many ministers, have walked off the job?
Dishonest ministers would still be in there and still scalping.
What do these honest ministers know?
Seems to me like this 'Big Bang'
Is going to be bigger, than we ever thought.
Chaos is increasing, at an expotential rate, at the moment.

D.A.
I have no idea how to spot the bottom. Looking at a chart of the gold price from the 850 point to the 385 point made it clear that the trend was down and about as straight down as a 15 year trend is going to be. Despite the continued complaints about CB manipulation the Indians buy much of the gold in the form of jewellery and therefor have a big effect on the price certainly yearly if not daily. Despite the view that the end of the stock boom was here it was continuing up as gold went down. Where was the likely bottom? Somewhere near the cost of production was my answer. If you could go back in the Kitco archives you will find me asking --how much does it cost to make the stuff. No one had a good answer. Everybody knows/knew the price should be higher but no one new what it cost to make the stuff--sounded like pre Iacccoa Chrysler. A narrowly held and a minimally supported view of $275 was available on the Net. So given the long term trend down was still a $150 above estimated cost why not accept the trend over the last 15 years as the path to follow.

Now we are at a difficult point. The cost is still unknown and presumably changing. Pegasus TVX Echo Bay and Barrick have all closed their higher cost mines and others have undoubtedly stopped mining their lower value ore and are mining higher concentrations of gold. When Echo Bay was having costs of over 400 per oz and gold was under 400 it was no difficult decision to see that the mines were still chugging along and were well off enough that they could still take a loss and produce--so the bottom wasn't here.

This of course is treating gold as a commodity and the Kitco archives also contain some important ( to me ) discussions regarding the value of the "store of value" notion and the "gold held up during the depression" illusion. So assuming it is being treated for the past 15 years or more as a commodity --when will the price stop falling--about the price where is no longer profitable to make/mine. Clearly it is getting close now. But will go back up "like a rocket" I hope so but it doesn't have to. If there is no demand--regardless of the arguments that there should be a demand ( and there will be many here and elsewhere ) --if the buying pressure isn't here it will stay low. Hence my hope to buy on the post bottom rise and not at the bottom even if I did know where that is.

Hope that is not too convoluted and I'm off for a walk for a few hours.

To: All
This is offered as a backgrounder because I feel that it is
instructive to see what was being said before the
fact when they were less aware of what they should be
hiding...

http://mann77.mannlib.cornell.edu:70/0/reports/erssor/international/wrs-bb/1997/international_agriculture_and_trade_APEC_09.11.97

Also To: Sharefin, YES! ( your last post )

Meant the 11:50 in particular ( altho nothing wrong with
any of your posts ever )

Hey guys,

Been a while since I last posted, but I have a story that you may find interesting. Some of you may remember me talking about my cousin that lives in Japan. Well she is married to a Japanese guy who is basically a salary man. Their entire goal in life right now is to get out of Japan and move to rural Iowa. They have already moved a substantial amount of money into physical gold and have it sitting in a safe deposit box. I spent the weekend with her looking at acreages and small farms in Ida county, Iowa. She had done her homework and had several places she wanted to show me. She intends to pay cash. Also in her mind the local property is incredibly cheap. They intend to move from Japan in late February and she'll get a job locally and he is going to raise Japanese vegatables and sell them over the internet ( go figure ) . Anyway they have a strong belief in physically holding gold and owning real estate free and clear. They are convinced that we are going to see a depression. She even mentioned that the farm she buys will probably fall in value. Anyway she seems to make a lot of sense and she is saying alot of the same things I hear on Kitco. Anyway I thought everyone would find this story interesting.

sharefin: I am a big fan of Marty Szweig. He knows when the market risk is too high for equities -- such as now. The problem is the "when" -- unpredictable! I think given the strength of the US markets, and the relative isolation of American Investors from the rest of the ( real ) world the US markets will defy gravity and continue on their way. My guess is that the high fliers this time will be the ones with Asian manufacturing plants, and general retailers in the US. Importers from SE Asia will do a land-office business. US plants with comparable Asian manufacturing will be shut down -- why keep then operating when you can save 30% of the cost?

After several months, reality will set in, and the US markets will weaken. Februrary is a likely month. I was not quick enough to sell my Mar 98 sp500 puts, but will hold on to the Dec 98 ones. I have HP and Potash calls, and XAU puts to cover losses in the sp500 bets ( I hope ) .

I see now why the pros use at least 20,000 cash in their options trading accounts, with no more than an a few percent in each trade ( each one as independent of the others as possible ) . My funny money is just not enough. If I succeed in making money, it will be because of the very high volatility at this time.

What do you think about buying convertible bonds in gold stocks? Sounds like a good idea to me. By the way, if the US markets rally, gold stocks will probably rally a bit sooner -- for a time -- before the next correction.

MARKET UPDATE ( 12/1/97 ) PM-----Gold opened December down sharply with the market seemingly trading on the sentiment that since there's nobody pushing it up, it has to come down. Gold is looking for a bottom here and we may not see anything resembling strong buying until we get into the old $285 support level. Some are pointing to deflation as the reason for gold's drop. Others are saying the market simply lacks support. For the most part, I think today's action is simply the result of gold breaking the psychologically important $300 market before the holiday. This has more to do with momentum than fundamentals. What mining company would be selling down here? The handful that have a cost of production in the $280's or lower??? Which central bank would let go of the national treasury's chief asset at bargain basement prices??? We stick with our analysis that the shorts ( whatever their motives ) are going to get as much out of this as they can. At some point, physical buying will turn this thing around. The London Interbank 12 month gold rate, according to Reuters, is back to 4% -- a bright spot in an otherwise dismal Monday picture. A word to the several who have left E-mails asking about gold stocks. First, we are not gold stock experts so we do not know what to tell you about the gold stocks you own. We do not render advice on gold stocks. Second, I am sorry to say that we do not view gold stocks as a substitute for physical ownership ( although many stock brokers do ) . Gold stocks are stocks first and gold a distant second. The best way to go is with the physical metal. Buying here is like buying at $35. Where we think that anybody buying gold at these for asset preservation purposes makes a great deal of sense, any gold stock you might buy has to be analyzed for its profit potential over whatever period you have determined you would like to have your money at risk. In other words, it needs to be analyzed just like any other stock -- something we do not do here at Centennial. Our primary function is to help the investor who has an interest in the metal as a bulwark against economic disaster. Gold owners, who hold the actual metal, do not particularly care ( insofar as their gold holdings are concerned ) if world economic debacle centering now around Asia resolves itself in inflation, deflation or disinflation, for that matter. Gold protects against any or all of these maladies in whatever order they should come. Gold stocks are just another stock investment. Enough said. We will update later if things change. If not this is it for the day.

JTF
I don't see a new leg up at all.
Todays action is not strong at all.
Dow up 140 at the moment.
Adv/dec - Up/down vol - New highs/lows,
All point to sick internals.

What this market is rallying on, is the large mkt/caps.
The generals have no troops.
Their forces are not behind them.
When the generals observe, what their troops are doing,
They will beat a hasty retreat.
IMHO

Would you be so kind as to repost the book title you recommend by Davidson & Rees-Moog? Thanks

As we suspected, the producers currencies ARE pegged to the SDR...
http://www.bahraincyber.com/bankfin.htm

Soooo...

HUH...the CRB is sneaking up 1.32...??

But of course. The Great Reckoning - James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees-Mogg - Simon and Schuster -

Would that be The Great Reckoning? They also have newsletters and have a London based consultancy.

Hope you are feeling better!

Is anyone experiencing internet connectivty trouble today? I seem to be losing the link every two minutes.

"it does say the in general the trend is not your friend in declining

commodity markets."

Can we assume that this is NOT your conclusion in BULL markets in commodities?

This from your post "The Bahrain Dinar is formally linked to the SDR, with the US dollar acting as intervention
currency. There has been virtually no fluctuation between the dollar and the Dinar since the
late 1970's"

At the recent IMF meeting in Hong Kong there was a proposal to double the number of SDRs outstanding "in order to reflect the new eastern European members" or something close to that. I recall a post to that effect that I found on Radio Free Europe.

This, coupled with the points made by ANOTHER, as restated by Allen ( USA ) is starting to make a lot more sense.

Yes a wee bit...Thank you for your earlier posts. Just back from the MD and I am not dead yet. No traveling allowed...I was planning to attend the SF gold show today, but I cannot fly for several weeks/months. I will have to rely on Kitco posts.

If gold is only a 'commodity', why did 19 CB's buy and are buying this past 18 months?

Wouldn't higher interest rates result in flight from the stock markets to safer investments such as bonds etc?

Higher interest costs would result in higher borrowing corporate costs thus lower earnings, thus lower stock prices?

Wouldn't such a scenario result in lack of confidence in stock markets around the world if Canada ( first ) and eventually the Dow would suffer the same fate?

Trying to understand your real motives.

RLM:

Yes, you may.

EB-Here we go go again NEW Benediction, Gold April futures low 280.00.Ted buys electric generator to stay with booboos at Kitco.Happy Trails

An earlier post made mention of "the illusion that gold held up during the depression." Would someone please post his/her thumbnail opinion of what actually happened to gold in the 30's? Not necessarily looking for analysis, just what actually happened to the value of gold. Thanks from a newcomer to gold investments.

Go to http://www.gold-eagle.com and look for the article 1929 and gold stocks. It is a start.

SDR
Just glossed through that APEC summary - read fully later.
The way I read it is that,
With Asia not spending,
All those statistics will change drastically.
Global markets ( esp. USA ) need Asia's demand,
And a high consumption rate to boot.

Yield Curve tables plus chart:
http://www.stocktrader.com/yc2.html

http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.htm

Let's talk relative downsides. Gold maybe another twenty percent...the central banks won't destroy their equity in this investment. Their trading opportunity will play out ( rather quickly at this rate of descent ) .
How about the U.S. stock markets? Well according to my math...there is now $6.7 trillion riding on the long side. Whoaaa! Since there are only $5.3 trillion greenbacks in circulation, there is an OBVIOUS shortage.
Next ratio: NUMBER OF DOLLARS IN THE STOCK MARKETS DIVIDED BY ALL AMERICANS ( MAN, WOMAN, CHILD ) = $27,000.

AVERAGE AMERICAN FAMILY INVESTMENT IN STOCKS COMPARED TO TOTAL ASSETS:
41%.

THE MOST ALARMING...THERE ARE MORE BROKERAGE HOUSES THAN DAIRY QUEENS.

There are $490,920,000,000 greenbacks in circulation. The rest are computer entry credit dollars. 490.92 billion, not trillion.

Hong Kong analyst Milhouse shares his latest economic and financial wisdom. Again, he draws special attention to the significance of Money Supply. Correctly he observes, If confidence in financial assets and government controlled currencies was to significantly reduce, then the total gold reserves of all Central Banks ( worth 320 billion dollars at current gold prices ) could be absorbed in an instant by private investors.

Of monumental import is his assertion that ...it must be
remembered that there are 3.8 billion ounces of gold in the world
and the supply is increasing by ( ONLY ) 1.75% each year ( probably less for the next few years due to mine closures ) , WHEREAS there are 5,300 billion US dollars in the world, and the supply is increasing by 9% each year. The end result is obvious.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse1130.html

Good info in that gold-eagle article. Many thanks. Although it may seem like a stupid question, did physical price increase commensurately with the gold stocks? Is there a record showing the prices in the years preceeding and following 1929? Thanks again.

sharefin: I share your opinion -- the surge today does not match my expectations for a resurgent bull market, or a month-end rally. I quess we must let the line play out a bit before we will know how what to do. I wish we could just take the stuff Crooke is talking about and choose a critical date -- but it isn't that simple is it?

With the market volatility, long term investments are too risky, except for gold bullion. Notice that oil is heading south, for now?

Right now short and long options are the only way to go, other than gold.

yOUR 10:43 comment is interesting; i.e.- " ( whats.wrong.with.this.picture )
Gold is getting hammered, crude oil is getting smashed and the dollar is
soaring. Why can't the bond market rally?" Could it be the Japanese are selling bonds while the gettin' is good?

The free market price of gold rose after March, 1933 from $20.67 to $35.00. Gold stocks soared after that date.

Japan- the govt stated they would use public funds for the banking crisis. people may sell their bonds and buy stocks. Korea- market fell because people fear severe conditions for the IMF package but it should be regarded positive as companies will have to restructure. Gold- rumors the IMF will sell gold in order to help korea didnt help... US stocks should profit because the Asian recovery will slow the american next year.

the problem with the IMF is this -- it doesn't have a lot of $ reserves, according to the grant's asia observer guy on cnbc. what i didn't hear him say is the *most* important problem: congress is showing reluctance to add u.s. $ to the IMF.

....Platinum is finally starting to get friendly.
This bottom in gold isn't far off .Happy trading

Did I miss a post regarding the nuts and bolts of the massive Korean bailout. I understand that the Japanese will be called on to provide backup finance. "Rots a ruck"

Thanks for the correction...as I have always felt...shortage of greenbacks is rather severe!

Glad to be of help. Don't worry about asking "stupid" questions or making "stupid"comments. We all have our share of "stupid" days. Now as to the question at hand I believe you can find historical data at gold-eagle as well.

Oh vronsky where are you?

( Sound of me smacking myself in the head ) Sorry, folks. Temporary insanity caused me to forget that the price of gold was fixed during that time period. Galloping dumbs got the better of me for a minute.

This market is making me cranky and grouchy. Therefore I must post the following to cheer me and others up.

In a small southern town there was a "Nativity Scene" that showed great
skill and talent had gone into creating it. One small feature bothered
me.The three wise men were wearing firemen's helmets.

Totally unable to come up with a reason or explanation, I left. At a "Quik Stop" on the edge of town, I asked the lady behind the counter about the helmets. She exploded into a rage, yelling at me, "You damn Yankees never do read the Bible!"

I assured her that I did, but simply couldn't recall anything about
firemen in the Bible.

She jerked her Bible from behind the counter and ruffled thru some pages,
and finally jabbed her finger at a passage. Sticking it in my face she said "See, it says right here, 'The three wise man came from afar'."

Sorry, tortfeasor, the true joke of the day is the SanFrancisco 49ers. How bout 'dem CHIEFS...oops, sorry, it won't happen again, I promise...

I was just reading Andrew Sarlos' book "Fear Greed, and the End of the Rainbow". In it he looks at historical indicators of market tops. In particular, he comments about the large-cap DOW stocks continuing to drive the market upwards - while the many hundreds of other stocks have began their descent into the bear. It looks very much like that process is presently unfolding now - it appears it is now just a question of how long it is going to take for this process to become the new reality.

It seems to me that if you have an open and transparent market there would be no problem understanding a drop in the price of gold. It would simply be attributable to a lack of interested buyers and/or over supply.

Considering that MOST gold is never seen or traded on an open and transparent market ( LBMA, et al ) then one must assume that there is no "fairness" and also no "supply/demand" equation. In fact gold trading is so sensitive an issue that if it were seen in an open and transparent market it would significantly alter all other markets ( else way would it be done behind closed doors? ) .

The "price" of gold is manipulated by a cartel. The wholesale/retail markets simply follow the cartel's pricing. When a "price" is anounced it is not a market which prices it via auctioning. It is a dictation by those who control the 90% of the market that is unseen. This begs the question of intent. What are they up to now that this makes sense for them?

It is important to understand that gold pricing has nothing to do with market dynamics right now. Using typical technical analysis is fruitless. We are hearing anecdotally that gold demand is up even in places where currencies have hit the fan: Hong Kong, Japan, Germany, USA. If the shorts are using the cartel's actions ( couched in different explainations ) to make a few bucks then so be it. However they will find out just how bad it can be when they can't cover to save their butts.

The view from here is that we are at a bottom from US$400 and lower. Yeah the price may drop to US$100 but what I'm thinking about is the "come up'ants" as they would say in the South. When things turn sour for the USA then, baby, you will not be able to find gold to save your life. Wait if you will, but do not wait one second past the turning point. If you do you will miss it forever. "Like a rocket to the moon, Alice."

A conservative investor would have 5 to 10% in bullion. I'm still getting information from my outlet in the North Eastern US that they can't find enough of it to saticfy demand, regardless of the S.F. conference poll of hands. My question is, "When a 'real' surge of people get the 'fire' in their bellies to own gold where will you find it and what will it cost you to get it at that time???"

If ANOTHER is even partially right we have a truly awefull ( in many senses of the word ) situation that will give the word "upheavel" a whole new meaning. The transition will be so traumatic that people everywhere will rightly see it as the first detonation of an economic "nuclear" bomb with an economic world war to follow. Those most vulnerable are those who have little gold, oil and too much debt ( who does this remind *you of? ) .

JTF
The Dow turning off the area of 8050 to 8100,
Would create a classic declining tripple top.
And define the trend of lower highs and lower lows.
The OEX turning off 471 would create a perfect tripple top.
Many of the other indices have similar patterns,
Although not as striking.
European charts have similiar patterns.
Many individual US stocks show short term topping positions.
One more day like today and I can see a short term top established.
Bad asian news and retacements within their indices,
Will allude to a further selling wave starting.
This has the potential to turn into a doozy. ( :o ) }}}}}}}}}}}}]
IMHO

"Market looks sick" eh Nick. Hmmm, we've been hearing that since DOW 2700.I just hope I do as well next time I'm "sick". Those S&P Puts continue to get slaughtered to Zero value as Gold continues it's precipitous decline. Don't you masters of technical analysis get tired of being right all the time?

nomercy: the Governor just spoke on TV to the Canadain Club in Toronto. He said a lot of things and I 'm sure I missed a tot that willbe clear once his speach is available in print. But he did say the folloing atleast:

-The Canadian enconomy is booming and is about where the US economy was in 1994.

-The major threat to the Can Economy was allowing the return of inflation and that was not going to happen.

-The econcomy could continue to expand for atleast a year and would be "sustainable" because there would be no inflation to speak of.

-The recent decline in the C$ was the result of the decline in metal prices, the purchase of heavy equipment required by the booming economy and the outflow of profits from foreign countries that happens every year at this time.

He made it clear he has no intention to do anything about the dollar vs the U$ unless there was some concerted attack by speculators.

He expects the economy to contine expanding at it current rarte of about 4% for atleast a year when full productive caopacity is reached.

In other words he is bullish about the economy.

With regard to your recent post about bonds etc I need more words I think I don't understand your question.

The Year 2000 computer bug is scary enough. It threatens to shut

down or damage at least half the computers worldwide come Jan. 1,

2000. That could garble financial transactions, halt factory lines, disrupt

hospitals and cause traffic accidents by turning off stoplights.

Now there's an even bigger concern increasingly gnawing at executives:

the lawsuits that will follow.

Litigation resulting from Year 2000 meltdowns will be more costly than

asbestos, breast implant and Superfund cleanup lawsuits combined,

several reports say. Total litigation costs could exceed $1 trillion,

according to research firms Giga Information Group, Gartner Group

and others.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/bcovmon.htm

If Another is right and the oil producers are going to take delivery of their metal does that not require a significant cash outlay in dollars? Do they have the cash to exercise the options and do that? Can you option guys tell me the next date that it would be likely to happen?

Could deflation be in our future?


Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press



WASHINGTON ( November 30, 1997 8:29 p.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) -- Raldo Capitani's father sold Italian bread door-to-door during the Depression in Highland Park, Ill., near Chicago. His earnings didn't amount to much, but they fed a family of four. And the one thing the family didn't have to worry about during those hardest of hard times was rising prices. Prices, in fact, were falling.

Economists call the phenomenon deflation -- inflation's opposite -- and they're debating whether it's on the verge of reappearing after a six-decade absence.

Deflation may sound good to consumers with memories of skyrocketing prices during the 1970s and early 1980s. But, as Capitani, a 77-year-old retiree in Port St. Lucie, Fla., explained, there was a downside: declining wages and high unemployment.

Now that all the S&P Dec. Puts recommended by certain analysts have become completely worthless, and due to the market's incredible rise in the face of the Asian crises, and finally as we see Gold continue to fall to multi year lows, could NOW be the time to follow the advice of the DOW hating GoldBugs?

Get on the losing team! Throw good money after bad! Follow the classic Gamblers fallacy and buy those S&P Puts with one hand as you grab some Gold calls with the other!! After all, the fundamental precepts of the paper hating Goldbug analysts have only proven wrong for 17 years running now, EVENTUALLY they have to be right don't they? Don't they??? I mean, isn't the total and iminent collapse of society just around the corner?

Since your 'theory' to falling gold prices is based on gold being a commodity, could you answer my first question, that being.....

If gold is only a 'commodity', why did 19 CB's buy and are buying this past 18

months?

Will address other items individually.

LGB
Hope you haven't gone long,
Or have you?
I for one would not be a buyer today.
1994, yes please, but that was a long time ago.

Now we are at the top of this mania,
We will see where it proceeds from here.
Which way do you think it will go?
Do you see 9300 in the next month or so?
Thats my target if AG lets it go to the moon.
But I doubt it.

LGB
Do I detect a note of angst in your proclamation.
Your derrisive attack stinks of angst.
Surely you didn't load up on Dec putties?

I stand humbled
But not convinced.

This is perhaps the most comprehensive and accurate overview of the HOUSE OF ROTHSCHILDs financial activities during the last 200 years. And undoubtedly, NO ONE heretofore has ever come closer - indeed DARED - to estimating the extent of the Rothschild wealth TODAY... and what it might be up to in its traditional business of trading Treasuries and GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus112297.html

nomercy: I have no idea why 19 CB's bought gold during the last 18 months.

Goldhound
It is happening now.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nasdaq 146 new highs, 134 new lows today. NYSE has more new lows today than Friday, although new highs there are expanding dramatically today.

clicking my heels together like Dorothy and Toto saying " there's no place like short, there's no place like short". doing market impressions of Judy Garland..we've had 6 new highs since 10:15 and each on less ticks.. soon we'll be having new highs on negative ticks.. Mr. market keeps knocking and I keep ignoring him.

if you are looking for profit on intermediate/long trend, i would not short here, too dangerous. this is potentially a spike ,could last one two months before going down. has to satisfy h&s or confound before heading down. we may be surprised by bonds as evidence is mounting that a top is put in by world growth. in the meantime reap wherever there is a fruit, go with the flow.

"most of us enter the investment business for the same sanity-destroying reasons a woman becomes a prostitute: it avoids hard work, it is a group activity that requires little in the way of intellect, and is a practical of making money for those with no special talent for anything else." Richard Ney

A very fine post...good reading. Where do we place the next "buy"? I too am waiting on slow deliveries of Austrian Phils...slower deliveries each time.

We agree Nick, now is not the time to buy the DOW long, and no I'm not in the market with the exception of a large stake in my own employers shares ( which I expect to do very well in the next few months for reasons unrelated to the market at large ) . P/E ratios and low dividends show the shares to be less than a bargain at these prices, on that we can agree. We can also agree that risk/reward ratios are unfavorable at the moment for equities.

Only problem with all the above is that I'm beginning to wonder if a revlauation of the DOW from historic norms is in order, based on the world flight to our markets, and our own internal strength, increasing market investments from retirement savings, etc.

I've said many times I'm waiting for DOW 6700 to average back in, ( I balied in August around 8100 ) Now with this much strength in the DOW after post "Off white Monday" downturn, and the Asian crises seemingly unable to put off the U.S. market, I'm going to revise my "dipster" number upwards. Probably 300 points above the low of "Off white" Monday.

I expect short term declines in January-March due to capital gains tax cut selling, early year doldrums, portfolio readjustments, cyclic indicators that show a pre-spring drop followed by a spring rally, etc.

The economy is boomin man! Housing starts way up due to low interest rates ( 30 yr. fixed now around 7.1%, 15 yr rates below 7% ) , inflation at bay and may decline further to to Asian devaluations, productivity still incredibly strong and continuing to increase, oil prices falling, deficit falling to surplus in 98 ( if idiot politicians don't spend it ) , strong high tech. sectors that don't excpet more than a 3 or 4% hit due to Asian crises, very low unemployment, very high consumer confidence, a U.S. economy "misery index" figure that is the lowest it's been since the early 60's, extremely strong dollar, etc etc etc. The European community can not compete with the U.S., and in most of the high tech. sector, neither can Asia, There are few jobs that can still be exported offshore.

Silver again performed nicely today ... much better than Gold ( sigh ) . Thank goodness for my SSC .. silver looks ready to "zoom"...comments?

Silver showing a little bit of life.
SIZ7 last at 5.26
Rising on low volumes.
Bid but no ask?

nomercy: While you are getting your next question formulated I want to bring us back to the original topic which was your view that the Canadian $ and the Canadian economy are both ina bad way and the orient problem is a major concern. Given the CB's speach and position for the next year
have you rethought your postion. I note that since the speach the Bank of Nova Scotia is up 1.70 Northern telecom up $6.95 and Thompson Communications up $1.10--not bad support for the Gov's views in less than one day eh?

Yes Bill, Silver doing exceedingly well considering Gold's continuing bloodbath. SSC still a bargain at 7/8 but well off it's rally of a few weeks ago. I made a 2 day play in it and made a good 15% but bailed out and considering making another play now. SSRIF very tempting also. Like many of us have been saying, it's the supply/demand fundamnetals that drive the metals now, not politics.

Monday December 1, 2:13 pm Eastern Time

Dow powers higher, investors show fresh confidence

NEW YORK, Dec 1 ( Reuters ) - The Dow industrials extended their strong gains early Monday afternoon amid an easing of fears over the
recent financial turmoil overseas.

``The fear is turning from that of being in the market to one of being out of the market,'' said Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at
Ladenberg Thalmann.

At 1346 EST/1846 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 157 points at 7980.29. The S&P500 index gained 16.46 points to 971.86.

Blue chips were outperforming the rest of the market as investors to continued to show a preference for well-established names, analysts said.

The Nasdaq composite was up 20.78 points at 1621.33.

Investors were focusing on the tame inflation, low interest rates and good company earnings in the United States as a resolution of financial
problems in South Korea and Japan apparently in sight, Dwyer said.

The perkier long bond was up 15/32 to yield 6.03 percent, helping the Dow.

Nesbitt Burns chief economist Sherry Cooper said fears over broad-based selling of U.S. bonds by beleaguered Japanese financial institutions
were proving to be overdone.

On the Big Board, advances lead declines by more than two-to-one.

LONDON ( BBC ) : It was announced this weekend that "Barclays to close BZW share trading"

"Banking group Barclays is to withdraw from equity activities in the Japanese market."

"The bank announced the IMMEDIATE CLOSURE of its BZW share trading
operations, after it failed to find a buyer for its BZW Securities ( Japan ) Ltd subsidiary."

A Seaman's Axiom: "When in a sinking ship, FOLLOW THE RATS!"
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html

It is worth noticing that NEM is up, all of the Majors are relatively strong considering the 3 pt drop in gold and have large volume.

Two stocks that have an interesting mix in silver and gold are PAASF and ASGMF. If you want to read more on both go the gold-eagle digest section and read the GOLDBUG.

Re the confluence of signals at Dow 8100. If 8100 were to coincide with Gold @ 283, Then, the all time high of 28.61 on the Dow/Gold ratio would also be touched. Wouldn't that be something to behold?

Here come the new world order global reduction cars.

Japan's car sales take biggest monthly tumble in 23 years

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japan's sales of new cars, trucks and
buses fell by 23.5 per cent in November, the biggest drop in
more than 23 years, a dealers' association said Monday Total vehicle sales in November were 388,247, said the Japan Automobile Dealers Association. It was the eighth consecutive month that sales were below year-earlier levels
Sales of passenger cars, measured by registrations, declined 21.8 per, the biggest drop since a 27.1 per cent drop in August 1974 when world oil prices were rising sharply. This year, Japanese consumers have been worried by a
eries of failures at major financial institutions, said an association spokesman.

New car sales probably will remain relatively low for the
rest of the fiscal year ending next March, he added.
Consumers rushed to buy cars and other high-priced items
before Japan raised its sales tax April 1.
Sales by Toyota Motor Corp., Japan's biggest automaker,
fell 27 per cent to 167,777 vehicles, the association said.
The decline for No. 2 maker Nissan Motor Co. was 21.6
per cent to 71,080. Honda Motor Co.'s sales were down
8.8 per cent.

Why Invest in Gold in an Era of
Stocks and Mutual Funds?

The safety and security of owning gold in troubled times cannot be disputed. No
other substance on Earth embodies the unique characteristics and value of gold.
Since the earliest days of man, gold has been admired, molded, shaped, and
worn as a symbol of wealth, prestige, and good taste.

The romance and lure of gold is enhanced by its historic use as a storehouse of
wealth. Golds value is intrinsic. Its value is a measure of the true wealth and the
stability of national currencies the world over. Throughout history, every paper
currency every printed has become totally worthless over time. Yet gold
remains a storehouse of wealth, safety and protection.

Gold Offers Instant Liquidity
The precious metal gold cannot be created, destroyed or altered. It forever
remains one of the most liquid investments with no geographic boundaries. Gold
is bought, sold, traded, and stored in most parts of the free world with complete
privacy. Likewise, U.S. gold coins enjoy many of these unique advantages and
more.

In a world where paper currencies come and go, where paper money can be
depreciated 25% to 30% overnight, like we saw in 1995 in Mexico, the price
of gold cannot be manipulated by any single nation or borrower. On the
contrary, gold is the foundation of todays world monetary system.

The Security of Gold
Acquiring U.S. gold coins puts you in great company throughout American
history. Prior to 1933, all U.S. paper currency was backed dollar for dollar by
gold reserves. Today, paper dollars are backed only by a government promise,
nothing more.

For investors who appreciate gold, they recognize the safety, privacy and
instant liquidity of U.S. gold coins minted before.

As official legal tender, each coin has a guaranteed weight and gold content.
Ownership of Pre-1933 gold coins are strictly private and confidential.
Collector coins are also exempt from all U.S. gold confication laws making
them ideal to hold in times of financial crisis.

Hi Y'all: Just got back from holiday. May we have a moment of silence for our dearly departed ( gold ) $$$....ok, now: just discovered that bohl has ( at least today ) eliminated gold and OJ options price charts. Could someone give me some alternative gold and OJ option price sites? Thanks...

LBG
Some of those comments may well be true.
But we live today in a global finacial economy.
And the US is excessivly hungry for money.
Where will it come from?

Avid chatter:
The economy in Japan is crashing in slow motion - autos off 20% y/y, housing starts down 25% y/y, construction orders down 11% y/y, industrial production declining 0.4% m/m sequential, etc. etc. S. Korea is in the same mode and now there are rumors about problems in China. I think there is significant risk of a classic 1930s style depression in Asia if these countries cannot export their way out of this crunch.

economic numbers weaker, asia weaker,looks like a slowing economy and slower overseas sales=potential lower profit numbers. i always thought that the market was priced for future earnings and prices.

everything that I see points to lower earnings, particularl for the large cap multi nationals; however, welcome to mania.

look at the asia story from just this morning. their markets are *already* in shambles and they cannot get together.

"moody's investors cut thailand's credit rating to one notch above junk status. a further downgrade is possible ( read certain ) moodys said"

fundimentally; on the forward sales side, look for some possible large cancellations in the far east as they have alot on the books, banks falling , i wouldnt be surprised to see cancellations abound from that part of the world

export sales are important. not a good time for your countries banking/brokerage houses to be developing large problems as in the far east, thats why cancellations are possibly imminent

Yocal....er...local newspaper ( Mad magazine...er...Cape Breton Post ) didn't mention one negative about how our 'big storm' was handled ( MIS ) by the electric co. and the town snow plow people ( the Halifax paper I cut+ pasted this mornin must have been a hallucination ) ) ....only took quotes from the power co=" the worst storm in 15 years" ( yeah,that's why I've seen about a hundred or MORE worse ones in the five years I've been here ) ---"90 kilometer winds" ( yeah,that's why my anemometer peaked @ 50 kilos ) ...Tell em the 'big lie' long enuf and the LEEMINGS ( who us?? ) will believe anything.....like SHEEP bein led ta slaughter****....the SMUCKS actually are patting themselves on the back for the way they dealt with this huge ( 5 inches ) snow storm----typical in the BS capital of N.America!!...I still suspect a batch of bad acid has infiltrated the yocal water system~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~many many years ago....go team gold!! and if their are any Canadian postal workers 'out there'---YOU SUK!

Is totally absent in Cape Breton~~~~~~~~~~~XAU down 1.0000000 ( go gold! )

Silver folks , Silver...All this hand wringing on Gold and Gold shares. Meanwhile SSRIF up 14+% today amd silver showing incredibly strength in it's continuing divorce with it's adulterous spouse, Gold. Look at ECO today if you want to see a nasty drop in share price in a Gold stock.

has evolved into an artform in Cape Breton~~~~~~~~~

Hmmm, didn't we read here last week that Elliot wave theory predicted a huge DOW loss and beginning of the crash for today, 12/1? I still say you need to stick with my alternate wave theory. It's called the "Stadium wave" theory and was described in detail in an October post....

Hi bro....won't be here long enuf fer it ta pay fer itself~~~~~~~~~

You could have gone all day without talking about my 49ers. Hopefully they will have awoken from the deep sleep by this next weekend. I have no excuses though. It was an ugly, ugly thing to behold.

Tort: yer 49ers are 'dead meat'..............Go gold-capitalism-free enterprise.......unions suk~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

On the DBC Market Monitor http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/indicators.html?source=core/dbc there are plus or minus quotes for the yen and other currencies. Does a plus on the mark for example mean that the mark is up against the dollor or vise versa? This has been kind of confusing to me, but then I am easily confused. Thanks for a short quick answer. Whoever answers this first will have the joke of the day posted in his or her honor tomorrow.

What is SSRIF please

Interested in your comments on SSC and SSRIF, both of which I own. Have take large paper losses in both, but hanging tough... Some would say that I'm just too stupid to see the err of my ways!

As I read it, you are "leaning toward" buying more of each stock. Are you buying the stock to hold for the eventual rise in price over the long-term or are you buying the stock for a quick turn-around sell in the near-term?

All right Ted, them there are fight'n words. I'm here to predict a decisive victory for the red tide over those wimpy Vikes this weekend. Steve Young is going to rise from the ashes to thrash those northeastern wannabees.

Sharefin@13:21
No urgency about the APEC ( didn't mean to add to the workload ) ;
but think the UK data does have relevant immediacy. I have information coming from Academic Research, Inc., but when I'll have it in hand??

Donald@13:25
Thanks. I did see that; the IMF made an even LARGER allocation to
UNNAMED countries this past summer ( FT, front page, big headline ) .
But the FT story, unhappily, was an Orwellian story, i.e., in print
ONCE and disappears from the face of the news world.
Another Orwellian ( also from FT front page ) was the 'deal' signed on to by a clique of banks on transaction arrangements, should transaction
be 'interrupted'...that was a REAL doozy. Can't find it either!
I'm going to start a journal, where I'll clip the physical, hard-copy
to prove to the unbelieving that the wretched story is 1 ) real and 2 ) appeared in print....at least once.

I haven't got a clue about where because I'm all bought in right now and haven't had to worry about it. Just been polling to find out the inside story. I suppose that LGB will sell you at spot+ since he's probably just itchin' to get back into equities!

I did call Jefferson but they said they were "Blanchard's only coin store" and having heard bad words re same and looking at their spread and the fact they are in Louisianna ( 'corruption' are us ) I backed off. Buy back on bullion bars was ( melt minus $$ ) for silver. Sick. That's why I have bullion coins. The spread in quanitities was buy at ( spot+$1.40 ) ( s/h included ) and buy back at ( spot+$1.25 ) ( you pay shipping return ) or so in wholesale quantities ( 500 oz ) .

.999 Silver bullion coins look all dried up now. So I'd trott down to the biggest local shop and buy all the 90% coin in $1000 bags.

As far as gold. Maybe US Tangibles in Texas. Sorry. Got no number. They must be in Dallas area, though. They are big. Also Donald posted big dealers #'s earlier today.

Savage
Try these:
http://www.futuresource.com/ci302.html
http://cgi.ino.com/cgi-bin/quotefind.cgi
http://quotewatch.com/
http://webservices.pcquote.com/cgi-bin/cboeopt.exe?
http://web2.airmail.net/mcm1/
http://www.site-by-site.com/usa/optfut.htm

FED FUNDs at 6%!!!!! Is there a line at the discount window, or WHAT?

SDR
I don't have the Ftse back to the 20's but will have a look.

-------------------------------------------
The Impact from the landslide at Mountain #1
http://home1.pacific.net.sg/~viclim/mount.htm
In the land of Ah-No-Ne, strange things happen. When Mountain #1 ( "Yama" literally means "mountain", "ichi" means "one" ) was about to erupt, normally BOJ-san ( Bank of Japan ) will direct the banking system to mount a rescue attempt. But this time, it did not happen.

THE SOLUTIONS TO ASIAN PROBLEMS
http://home1.pacific.net.sg/~viclim/solution.htm
Tracing the roots of evils of the Asian currencies crisis.
Japan's mistakes compounded her problems.
This is what caused the credit crunch in Asia.
How Asia started on the borrowing spree.
The solutions to Asia's problems lies here.

About 2.5 hours after the Canadian CB speaks and B of Nova Scotia up 1.90, Thompson Communications up 1.55 Canadian Pacific up .35 and Northern Telecom up 7.90.

Nick Chase is one ahead of me. His November Contrarian's column is now on the web at http://nick.assumption.edu/HTML/ContraView.html.

Admittedly, I'm a "Johnny Lately" to the gold thing...so all the more reason to ask. Trust is tantamount to all new relations, and in good faith...I must ask LGB to reveal his net worth. I simply must know this in order that I may assign the proper weight to his testimony.
LGB... here's thanking you in advance.

I *do not* care THAT it goes up. I want to know WHY it is going up. Forget about a 'strong economy' generalization. Tell me why the market is under priced at PE=23 and greater. Tell me why the market is underpriced at 5x replacement value, etc, etc. Rational investing demands value for price. Speculative gambling only asks for an increase in price regardless of reason for the rise. Don't call putting money into this market "investing". It is GAMBLING pure and simple at this point.

Gold and silver represent completely out of favor investments. They are the dogs of the investment world right now. That is WHY you should be buying now, because everyone has devalued them in mind share. This was true in 1930, 1938, 1950, 1956, 1975 and 1981 for equities. It is true of gold and silver now. If you do not have a good set of rules to rationally judge risk to reward ratio, then now is the time to get them and make this your test case. What is the downside risk vs the upside reward for gold/silver vs equities. Weight your investments accordingly.

Above all do not put your money down based on a gambling mentality. You will lose and lose big.

BTW was just reading about "pyrimid" corporations in the 1920's and 30's. Everyone thought it was the greatest thing since sliced bread. We are now seeing the same wording used to promote commodities "pyrimids" to turn $1,000 into $300,000 in a month or two. We are at the top of a mania now just as then. Even the same words are being used.

why can't coin dealers get bullion coins in an expeditious manner? Oh, wait, that's right, so many people are DUMPING bullion at these prices that the warehouses are unable to keep up with counting them all and getting them out onto the market again. Shipping is becoming so expensive in relationship to the weight and worth of these slugs. Who wants them anyway. Yeah, the dealers are probably just not interested in selling these worthless tokens of yester-year: no profit there, eh?

Sharefin: Thanks Nick.

Del Greco Coin ,ask for Al Prescott, 800-878-2443. 1 to 2 weeks delivery.

A little insight into the Japenese mindset.

THE SEVEN SAMURAI FIGHT AGAIN
by Eric Margolis
December 1, 1997


The image of `Yamaichi's' weeping chairman flashed around
the world. Japan's oldest securities firm had gone bankrupt
after a decade of fraudulent dealings, including concealment
of US $2 billion in losses.

Tearful public contrition is a Japanese custom., In a nobler
age, `Yamaichi's' managing directors would have atoned for
their shameful failure by committing `seppuku,' - ritual
suicide.

Yamaichi's collapse symbolized the cascading financial
disasters afflicting Asia's economies. Seen from afar,
Asia's meltdown was the inevitably result of reckless
speculation, magnified by fraudulent collusion between big
business, venal politicians, and weak, foolish bankers. Up
close, however, the view is more nuance.

Each Asian victim of the current crisis is different. South
Korea's economy, for example, is as big as Thailand,
Indonesia and Malaysia's combined. China has felt little
pain, so far.

Japan, world's second largest economy, and Asia's
powerhouse, has reserves of US $1.2 trillion that should
allow it to ride out the current financial crisis, rescue
its battered banking system, and fund rescue missions for
other Asian nations. Provided, of course, Japan's
thoroughly rotten financial reporting systems are not hiding
too many more `Yamaichi'-sized catastrophes that could
collapse the foundering Tokyo stock market.

Western commentators, many on the left, gleefully proclaimed
Asia's `economic miracle,' based on hard work, personal
responsibility, family values, small government, and low
taxes, was a bust. But it wasn't Confucius that failed.
Asia's financial crisis was caused by runaway speculation,
government laxity, and terrible banking practises.

This is a serious set-back, but not the end of the world for
Asia's economies. Their fundamentals are still strong.
Hard working citizens, low taxes, and minimalist government
will continue to be the absolute fundamentals of prosperity.
Given time - perhaps 2-3 years - Asia's `Tigers' will leap
back with renewed vigor.

Japan's situation is more complex. The financial tsunami
battering Asia is forcing Japanese to finally face a
fundamental social crisis: the possible end of traditional,
full-employment Japan. Much has been written about `Japan
Inc.' Few westerners, however, understand just how much
Japan remains, for all its frantic modernity, a feudal
village, writ large.

Japanese leaders, politicians, senior bureaucrats and
industrial barons, have a profound responsibility to their
people who, in turn, owe unswerving loyalty to their liege
lords. Individual Japanese firms battle ferociously, just
like the samurai armies of the pre-Tokugawa era. Yet there's
a powerful sense of community in Japan, of national polity.,
When the village is threatened, everyone mans the rampant,
and fights for the common good.

Unemployment is anathema in Japan. The greatest shame for a
Japanese industrialist is to fire his worker-soldiers.
That's why the chairman of `Yamaichi' wept: he had betrayed
his men, and investors. Contrast this to AT&T's chairman,
who took great pride in announced firing 55,000 workers, an
act of monstrous stupidity and callousness.

Japan's `bubble economy' collapsed in 1990 and plunged into
a long-tern slump. But rather than swallow bitter medicine
and renew the economy by firing workers and closing plants,
then Finance Minister, Ryutaro Hashimoto - who is today
Prime Minister - joined with Japan's old boy network to cook
the books and paper over multi-billion losses in industry to
keep insolvent banks and moribund firms like `Yamaichi' just
barely alive.

Asia's financial crisis may force the Hashimoto government
and business establishment to finally end life support of
Japan's terminally ill banks and industries, pull the plug,
and let them die. This, of course, will throw huge numbers
out of work and bring humiliation on the government..

Meanwhile, Japan is also under mounting pressure to
westernize its complex, creaky, inefficient distribution
system. Redundant layers of small wholesalers and
distributors sell to innumerable, tiny mom and pop stores.
Hence Japan's notorious, sky-high retail prices. Washington
is demanding Japan ditch this `medieval' system and adopt
western style giant distributors and `category killer' mass,
merchandisers.

But Japan's antique distribution system doubles as a social
welfare system. Many Japanese workers are retired at 50, or
younger, with a single lump sum payment, and little or no
private or government pensions. Most go to work in the
distribution system, or as small shopkeepers.

Japan's high retail prices produce employment for millions,
especially the near-elderly. As in France, small,
proprietor-run stores assure Japanese passion for top-
quality merchandise, and fresh, sanitary foodstuffs..

In France, huge industrial producers and mass merchandisers
have gravely and permanently degraded the quality of
France's once fabled foods, and thrown their former
guardians - small shopkeeping families - out of work. This
melancholy fate now awaits Japan, unless western pressure to
`open Japan's markets' can be resisted.

Japanese prefer to pay more for domestic goods if it means
near full employment and quality. For proud Japanese, taking
government handouts, or charity, is a deep disgrace. Far
better full, if expensive, employment: the suffering of
unemployed or destitute Japanese brings shame on the entire
village-nation.

So Japan's lords, like Akira Kurasawa's famous `Seven
Samurai,' will draw their swords, and fight a seemingly
hopeless battle against impossible odds to defend the
village they have vowed to protect from an attacking bandit
army - aka, the ruthless western world.

Copyright - E. Margolis, December 1997
*****************************************************************
*****************************************************************

maybe the bear will go back to sleep, notice how news "medias" aren't trumpeting latest "skyrocketing" of the DOW....live by the word die by the word.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.29 A new 31 year high

Nice crash today guys/gals.

Just did a quick calculation of Aussie$$ gold price. Would you believe the price of gold went UP overnight. The Aussie $$ is now going down faster than the price of gold. This insulates Aussie gold producers to a great degree from the ravages of a lower gold price. Also nice to see the XAU recover overnight for a small loss. Perhaps most of the bad news ( including gold 280-- which everyone "knows" is going to happen ) , is already factored into the gold shares.

As long as I do my traveling to Asia and not the US of A, I can have a nice cheap holiday. Wonder how many others are thinking along similar lines? Wouldn't want to be in the US tourist industry unless your money comes from domestic travellers. Just watch your Asian visitor numbers drop like a rock. Much cheaper to go to other Asian countries.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .239

You're hitting the ball well today...swing for the fence...you'll have it.
I concur with your observation re: increasingly difficult bullion coin delivery. Mike@usagold has been bustin' his buns to get it done, but its slow work. By the way, he's a great guy...honest beyond the norm.
He has passed along some post-trade savings to me that I've never had a broker do. I'm impressed.

I have contacted every coin dealer in the OKC area and none have bullion coins for sale...if they really do have them...they are not selling. This is a totally different perspective than the "other publicized" gold market.

Hey Arden ... tell us about the COMEX drawdown/up's today...available stocks, etc....silver looks like it *might* be getting in short supply!

I understand from a post late last wednesday that there were 2100+ delivery notices for COMEX Dec97 gold. Is that 2100 oz or 2100 ( times 100 ) oz contracts? Looking forward to your posting on the spurious numbers from COMEX today.

Nick@C
The problem is to hit our Aussie shores as well.
Cairns will suffer radically from this loss of capital.
This fair town where I live, has based much of its future growth on tourism.
It has over capitalised ( Asian money ) on all its tourism fronts.
I went for a drive to Kuranda the other day, and couldn't believe my eyes.
They have spent millions on doing this town up solely for tourism.
Nothing else exhists in this town as far as income goes.
The local population would only be a few thousand.
Aussie draws much revenue from tourism, and looks to be in for a bad run.
Plus all of our other exports that we will miss out on.
Only Howard and Costello could think that they have done a good job.

If you are confident that we have a bull stock market, and Peutz and sharefin are wrong -- you should go long. Personally, I think that you would be unwise going long in the US markets right now, as the low cost goods Tsunami from SE Asia ( among other things ) is about to hit. Yes -- we will have good news for a time due to consumer goods purchases during the Xmas holidays. But-- wait till we have layoffs at the US factories competing with cheap imported goods!

I think the average US investor does not have any idea what is happening in the real world yet -- this is a problem that the US has always had. In the past it did not matter all that much as we had a fully self-sufficent economy, and little foreign debt. Now, the tables have turned, and over 30% of our economy is dependent on foreign trade, and we have at lease $1trillion of our debt in foreign hands. We have been very foolish.

Yes the US may have a stong economy -- we have exported computer technology all over the world -- but look at what is happening. 1/3 of the worlds economy is already in recession/depression. China is about to announce debt problems -- although their barter system makes them much less dependent on this money than the Western world. Russia is now effectively under control of gangsters, with nuclear weapons control officers getting hazardous duty pay in the form of 4 lbs of sausage/month. The European Red Cross has predicted famines in Russia this winter. South Korea, Brazil and Russia have crosslinked debt of some kind, so that the Soth Korean meltdown may cause a shock through Brazil and Russia. Germany's GDP will be down significantly due to the SE Asia situation. In short, there is a real financial domino effect going on, and the US may be last, but it will effect us because we can no longer exist in a vacuum, and ignore the rest of the world.

Please think about all this before you assume the US market is going to go into a genuine long term rally given what is happening to the rest of the world. Our economy will be adversely affected.

Please also note sharefin's comments that any bet you make down or up should be based on your own judgement -- not Peutzs, or anyone elses.

I have learned alot from sharefin -- and I have no regrets, even if I lose money with my option trades -- it is my "funny" money, not his. I would not dare put large quantities of cash in the market right now -- it is much to risky.

Read it while it's hot!! http://www.chebucto.ns.ca/~an388/nov97.html by my fellow Nova Scotian ( not really ) friend MAX......Tort: take yer beatings like a man~~~~~~~~~

Comex silver warehouse stocks rose 1,212,564 oz to 128,251,770 oz.

Comex gold warehouse stocks rose 28,225 oz to 746,401 oz, BUT ONCE AGAIN comex eligible gold stocks fell 2,544 oz to 202,014 oz. Today was first notice day and 1,157 delivery notices were sent out equal to 115,700 oz. If this gold is taken out of the warehouse in the next few days, life could get interesting.

On Wed last week the open interest rose 1891 contracts as gold fell through 300 but the actual amount of eligible gold declined indicating new speculator shorts at below 300! Dec open ineterst fell 7402 contracts to 7,124 contracts. We have to wait until tomorrow to see what today's open interest in Dec is, but if another 1157 notice of delivery are sent out and they actually want it, comex will be out of deliverable gold!!! Not that anyone is paying attention.

STUDIO.R - The firm of D.H.Blair from New York has the same values of honesty, character, and moral fiber as some of the frequent posters here.

IMHO - "net worth" isn't very important in these types of decisions.

Sebly - I remember your prediction of last Nov. At the time, I couldn't imagine it happening. An amazing call.

Another - After the reckoning I hope you come back and collect your kudos . Some of us will want to meet you.

Every avid goldbug should have some.
100% Free
100% Gold-plated mouse pointers available to all collectors.

Choose your favourite model.
Choose your favourite year.
Only one condition.
They only come in one colour - GOLD.

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Gold.zip

Just pop them in your c:/windows/cursors/ folder.
And drive one away today.

Impress you friends and family.
Point the way to where to where the gold lies.

If you would be so kind....please try to explain what costs are incurred for a gold mining operation during shut down and throughout the nonproducing period. What type of fixed overhead costs to these operators normally have to shell out for during this no imcome phase of the game?

What type of M&A do you expect to see?

Who will be the predators/prey?

Are stand still agreements in place between many players?

Do you expect to see any specific juniors put into play at the current prices?

Thank you very much.

Sharefin, you mean Abbott and Costello, right?

When a mine is shut down after a prolong decline in its product price a number of things happen. First it is the tendancy for the mine management to stretch and defer all costs, in many times at the expense of repairs, environmental concerns and even safety. Furthermore, the employees in such an operation can see it coming, the really good ones will bail out if they can find work elsewhere. In some cases theft becomes rampant because the employees feel cheated. When a mine shuts down it is total compitulation. They have exhausted all other options.

The ongoing costs are the normal things like taxes, property obligations and maintenance.

It is too late for M&A activity in general, now its time for the predators. In many cases the value of the project plummets, perhaps ten cents on the dollar or less is things are really deteriated. When the stockholders are told that a mine is shut down, it is time for salvage operations. In today's mining environment, the big concern of any new buyer would be the hidden liabilities, primarily environmental. These type of things are not always obvious at first look. The large heap leach operations that have gone down and are going down may never be reopened in their former glory. It is almost easier to take on a totally new project than to inherit someones problems.

Gusto Oro
Good guess, and good for a laugh.
It make one feel confident, to know, that these two clowns,
Have their hands, on the helm, of our country.
If the rudder fell off, they would still spout,
That they know, where they are heading.
HO! HO! HE! HE!
I feel sorry for the sheep, that hang on every word.
T'is a grave condition, when this is the best,
That this fine country, has to offer.
IMHO

$293.60 divided by 16 equals $18.35

Gold is bottoming, TSE topping...Cdn $ will be weaker, unless interest rates are increased. Exports in natural resources to Asia,Japan, Brazil & Argentina will be severely curtailed. Some exports to US will face added competition from countries whose currencies have been devalued 30 to 50%. Imports from US increase the likelyhood of inflation due to weakning CDn $; unemployment at 9% and WILL BE RISING due to layoffs in natural resources sector.

The above coupled with a topsy TSE, makes Canada vulnerable to speculator attacks in both markets & currency.

Tax collections on capital gains on the general market will be mitigated by TAX LOSSES in commodities & precious metals ( we've been in this process in the last week & more to come? ) .

Thiessen, is trying to maintain confidence. In his shoes I'd the same. Facts are we've had 3 ( three ) nudges in interest rates to no avail.

The trend has changed ( it has changed from 2 months ago ) , except gold , but that is close now if not already there.

Asia's turmoil & its contagion will take its toll worldwide ( ask Australians what happened to their currency in the last 3 months, granted they're more exposed to Asia than Canada but exports worldwide are going to face deflationary situations.

Ted, provided an excellent link, Skeptical Investor. I suggest you read it, specially section dealing with Canucks.

More on your gold 'theory' later.

Can't wait. A good theory is one that predicts--my views did just that so what is it that you think we are talking about here?

Hong Kong analyst Milhouse shares his latest economic and financial wisdom. Again, he draws special attention to the significance of Money Supply. Correctly he observes, If confidence in financial assets and government controlled currencies was to significantly reduce, then the total gold reserves of all Central Banks ( worth 320 billion dollars at current gold prices ) could be absorbed in an instant by private investors.

Of monumental import is his assertion that ...it must be
remembered that there are 3.8 billion ounces of gold in the world
and the supply is increasing by ( ONLY ) 1.75% each year ( probably less for the next few years due to mine closures ) , WHEREAS there are 5,300 billion US dollars in the world, and the supply is increasing by 9% each year. The end result is obvious.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse1130.html

Arden:

The delivery notice news might be better than you think. I think last Wed was actually First Notice Day for Dec. Take a look at what is below. I took that straight out of an FWN report from today. I hope I got the alignment right.

-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
-- -- -- -- HI-GRADE SILVER GOLD
ISSUED TODAY 1,746 1,845 1,157
SO FAR FOR DECEMBER 5,828 6,167 4,032

The 1,157 that you reported today are there but there were 2,875 notices last Wed.

Question: What exactly does a "notice" mean. Are these contracts that the buyer has actually stated they want delivery?

Go Silver! Gold, get off your BUTT!

fundaMETAList

Hello all.
I hope what follows doesn't seem too amateurish.

I've been lurking and learning from everyone in this group since July, when I began making my first gold purchases.

Not to bore you, but a little background: I began buying gold this summer, intially as way to "lock in" some savings. I admit it- I have trouble saving money. I thought I'd buy physical gold as way to build a nest egg, and wasn't too concerned about the price of gold fluctuating. This way, I reasoned, I'd have something saved up, even if I lost $10-$20 an ounce here and there.

I know, not prudent investing. But like I said, I have trouble saving cash.

Anyway, shortly thereafter, I discovered this site, and began to monitor the prices and the comments. Intially, I would watch the price of gold here, and on days when it was down $2-$5 and ounce, buy some more gold in a feeble attmept at dollar/cost averaging. I continued to buy, as the price of the "yellow metal" began its ( now disheartening ) slide. I figured, hey, it'll bounce back, and this way I could sort of offset the cost of some of my higher priced eagles. The deeper the slide, the more encouraged I was.

Continued monitoring of this site ( coupled with slow but steady and buying ) however, has changed my perspective. I'm now something of a goldbug, and don't view my purhcases as merely a way to lock-in some savings.

Thus, with this new perspective and contined price slide, I'm becoming concerned. $100 an ounce? That's can't really be "in the cards," can it? Will gold stabilize ( perhaps for years ) at around $300? Is a bounce back to my original ( and fortunately, fairly insiginifcant quantity-wise ) buy-in point around $335 unreasonable to expect? Will it take years to get there? Or am I, due to my "ignorance is bliss" approach, actually buying in at a short-lived low, with $400 or more an ounce possible in the not-too-distant future?

I freely admit, I am not "player" in precious metals investing like many Kitco posters must be. So I apologize in advance to anyone who feels that this post is a waste of space or time.

However, I greatly appreciate anyone's thoughts/advice/ encouragement/tips/reassurance/etc on these matters. Thanks in advance for your opinions and any thoughts you wish to share with a novice gold person.


PS: I have learned a lot about the impact of world markets, political turnoil. etc. on gold prices and the state of the economy from the posts on this site. so thanks again.

Hello all.
I hope what follows doesn't seem too amateurish.

I've been lurking and learning from everyone in this group since July, when I began making my first gold purchases.

Not to bore you, but a little background: I began buying gold this summer, intially as way to "lock in" some savings. I admit it- I have trouble saving money. I thought I'd buy physical gold as way to build a nest egg, and wasn't too concerned about the price of gold fluctuating. This way, I reasoned, I'd have something saved up, even if I lost $10-$20 an ounce here and there.

I know, not prudent investing. But like I said, I have trouble saving cash.

Anyway, shortly thereafter, I discovered this site, and began to monitor the prices and the comments. Intially, I would watch the price of gold here, and on days when it was down $2-$5 and ounce, buy some more gold in a feeble attmept at dollar/cost averaging. I continued to buy, as the price of the "yellow metal" began its ( now disheartening ) slide. I figured, hey, it'll bounce back, and this way I could sort of offset the cost of some of my higher priced eagles. The deeper the slide, the more encouraged I was.

Continued monitoring of this site ( coupled with slow but steady and buying ) however, has changed my perspective. I'm now something of a goldbug, and don't view my purhcases as merely a way to lock-in some savings.

Thus, with this new perspective and contined price slide, I'm becoming concerned. $100 an ounce? That's can't really be "in the cards," can it? Will gold stabilize ( perhaps for years ) at around $300? Is a bounce back to my original ( and fortunately, fairly insiginifcant quantity-wise ) buy-in point around $335 unreasonable to expect? Will it take years to get there? Or am I, due to my "ignorance is bliss" approach, actually buying in at a short-lived low, with $400 or more an ounce possible in the not-too-distant future?

I freely admit, I am not "player" in precious metals investing like many Kitco posters must be. So I apologize in advance to anyone who feels that this post is a waste of space or time.

However, I greatly appreciate anyone's thoughts/advice/ encouragement/tips/reassurance/etc on these matters. Thanks in advance for your opinions and any thoughts you wish to share with a novice gold person.


PS: I have learned a lot about the impact of world markets, political turnoil. etc. on gold prices and the state of the economy from the posts on this site. so thanks again.

Hello all.
I hope what follows doesn't seem too amateurish.

I've been lurking and learning from everyone in this group since July, when I began making my first gold purchases.

Not to bore you, but a little background: I began buying gold this summer, intially as way to "lock in" some savings. I admit it- I have trouble saving money. I thought I'd buy physical gold as way to build a nest egg, and wasn't too concerned about the price of gold fluctuating. This way, I reasoned, I'd have something saved up, even if I lost $10-$20 an ounce here and there.

I know, not prudent investing. But like I said, I have trouble saving cash.

Anyway, shortly thereafter, I discovered this site, and began to monitor the prices and the comments. Intially, I would watch the price of gold here, and on days when it was down $2-$5 and ounce, buy some more gold in a feeble attmept at dollar/cost averaging. I continued to buy, as the price of the "yellow metal" began its ( now disheartening ) slide. I figured, hey, it'll bounce back, and this way I could sort of offset the cost of some of my higher priced eagles. The deeper the slide, the more encouraged I was.

Continued monitoring of this site ( coupled with slow but steady and buying ) however, has changed my perspective. I'm now something of a goldbug, and don't view my purhcases as merely a way to lock-in some savings.

Thus, with this new perspective and contined price slide, I'm becoming concerned. $100 an ounce? That's can't really be "in the cards," can it? Will gold stabilize ( perhaps for years ) at around $300? Is a bounce back to my original ( and fortunately, fairly insiginifcant quantity-wise ) buy-in point around $335 unreasonable to expect? Will it take years to get there? Or am I, due to my "ignorance is bliss" approach, actually buying in at a short-lived low, with $400 or more an ounce possible in the not-too-distant future?

I freely admit, I am not "player" in precious metals investing like many Kitco posters must be. So I apologize in advance to anyone who feels that this post is a waste of space or time.

However, I greatly appreciate anyone's thoughts/advice/ encouragement/tips/reassurance/etc on these matters. Thanks in advance for your opinions and any thoughts you wish to share with a novice gold person.


PS: I have learned a lot about the impact of world markets, political turnoil. etc. on gold prices and the state of the economy from the posts on this site. so thanks again.

Hello all.
I hope what follows doesn't seem too amateurish.

I've been lurking and learning from everyone in this group since July, when I began making my first gold purchases.

Not to bore you, but a little background: I began buying gold this summer, intially as way to "lock in" some savings. I admit it- I have trouble saving money. I thought I'd buy physical gold as way to build a nest egg, and wasn't too concerned about the price of gold fluctuating. This way, I reasoned, I'd have something saved up, even if I lost $10-$20 an ounce here and there.

I know, not prudent investing. But like I said, I have trouble saving cash.

Anyway, shortly thereafter, I discovered this site, and began to monitor the prices and the comments. Intially, I would watch the price of gold here, and on days when it was down $2-$5 and ounce, buy some more gold in a feeble attmept at dollar/cost averaging. I continued to buy, as the price of the "yellow metal" began its ( now disheartening ) slide. I figured, hey, it'll bounce back, and this way I could sort of offset the cost of some of my higher priced eagles. The deeper the slide, the more encouraged I was.

Continued monitoring of this site ( coupled with slow but steady and buying ) however, has changed my perspective. I'm now something of a goldbug, and don't view my purhcases as merely a way to lock-in some savings.

Thus, with this new perspective and contined price slide, I'm becoming concerned. $100 an ounce? That's can't really be "in the cards," can it? Will gold stabilize ( perhaps for years ) at around $300? Is a bounce back to my original ( and fortunately, fairly insiginifcant quantity-wise ) buy-in point around $335 unreasonable to expect? Will it take years to get there? Or am I, due to my "ignorance is bliss" approach, actually buying in at a short-lived low, with $400 or more an ounce possible in the not-too-distant future?

I freely admit, I am not "player" in precious metals investing like many Kitco posters must be. So I apologize in advance to anyone who feels that this post is a waste of space or time.

However, I greatly appreciate anyone's thoughts/advice/ encouragement/tips/reassurance/etc on these matters. Thanks in advance for your opinions and any thoughts you wish to share with a novice gold person.


PS: I have learned a lot about the impact of world markets, political turnoil. etc. on gold prices and the state of the economy from the posts on this site. so thanks again.

Hello all.
I hope what follows doesn't seem too amateurish.

I've been lurking and learning from everyone in this group since July, when I began making my first gold purchases.

Not to bore you, but a little background: I began buying gold this summer, intially as way to "lock in" some savings. I admit it- I have trouble saving money. I thought I'd buy physical gold as way to build a nest egg, and wasn't too concerned about the price of gold fluctuating. This way, I reasoned, I'd have something saved up, even if I lost $10-$20 an ounce here and there.

I know, not prudent investing. But like I said, I have trouble saving cash.

Anyway, shortly thereafter, I discovered this site, and began to monitor the prices and the comments. Intially, I would watch the price of gold here, and on days when it was down $2-$5 and ounce, buy some more gold in a feeble attmept at dollar/cost averaging. I continued to buy, as the price of the "yellow metal" began its ( now disheartening ) slide. I figured, hey, it'll bounce back, and this way I could sort of offset the cost of some of my higher priced eagles. The deeper the slide, the more encouraged I was.

Continued monitoring of this site ( coupled with slow but steady and buying ) however, has changed my perspective. I'm now something of a goldbug, and don't view my purhcases as merely a way to lock-in some savings.

Thus, with this new perspective and contined price slide, I'm becoming concerned. $100 an ounce? That's can't really be "in the cards," can it? Will gold stabilize ( perhaps for years ) at around $300? Is a bounce back to my original ( and fortunately, fairly insiginifcant quantity-wise ) buy-in point around $335 unreasonable to expect? Will it take years to get there? Or am I, due to my "ignorance is bliss" approach, actually buying in at a short-lived low, with $400 or more an ounce possible in the not-too-distant future?

I freely admit, I am not "player" in precious metals investing like many Kitco posters must be. So I apologize in advance to anyone who feels that this post is a waste of space or time.

However, I greatly appreciate anyone's thoughts/advice/ encouragement/tips/reassurance/etc on these matters. Thanks in advance for your opinions and any thoughts you wish to share with a novice gold person.


PS: I have learned a lot about the impact of world markets, political turnoil. etc. on gold prices and the state of the economy from the posts on this site. so thanks again.

Hello all.
I hope what follows doesn't seem too amateurish.
I've been lurking and learning from everyone in this group since July, when I began making my first gold purchases.
Not to bore you, but a little background: I began buying gold this summer, intially as way to "lock in" some savings. I admit it- I have trouble saving money. I thought I'd buy physical gold as way to build a nest egg, and wasn't too concerned about the price of gold fluctuating. This way, I reasoned, I'd have something saved up, even if I lost $10-$20 an ounce here and there.
I know, not prudent investing. But like I said, I have trouble saving cash.
Anyway, shortly thereafter, I discovered this site, and began to monitor the prices and the comments. Intially, I would watch the price of gold here, and on days when it was down $2-$5 and ounce, buy some more gold in a feeble attmept at dollar/cost averaging. I continued to buy, as the price of the "yellow metal" began its ( now disheartening ) slide. I figured, hey, it'll bounce back, and this way I could sort of offset the cost of some of my higher priced purchases. The deeper the slide, the more encouraged I was.
Continued monitoring of this site ( coupled with slow but steady buying ) however, has changed my perspective. I'm now something of a goldbug, and don't view my purhcases as merely a way to lock-in some savings.
Thus, with this new perspective and contined price slide, I'm becoming concerned. $100 an ounce? That's can't really be "in the cards," can it? Will gold stabilize ( perhaps for years ) at around $300? Is a bounce back to my original ( and fortunately, fairly insiginifcant quantity-wise ) buy-in point around $335 unreasonable to expect? Will it take years to get there? Or am I, due to my "ignorance is bliss" approach, actually buying in at a short-lived low, with $400 or more an ounce possible in the not-too-distant future?
I freely admit, I am not "player" in precious metals investing like many Kitco posters must be. So I apologize in advance to anyone who feels that this post is a waste of space or time.
However, I greatly appreciate anyone's thoughts/advice/ encouragement/tips/reassurance/etc on these matters. Thanks in advance for your opinions and any thoughts you wish to share with a novice gold person.
PS: I have learned a lot about the impact of world markets, political turnoil. etc. on gold prices and the state of the economy from the posts on this site. so thanks again.

Learner
Fair chance you will come up smelling the roses.
So long as you aren't in a hurry,
You will find that you are holding a fine asset.
Poor man's gold could be a similiar viable investment.
IMHO

Sorry about the multiple posts! Apparently, my inexperience isn't limited only to gold!

Learning, by now you've learned that even when the window tells you your attempt to post failed, it did indeed get through. I favor mostly ownership of silver in the form of 1965-1969 40% silver Kennedy half dollars. Seven of these = a tad over 1 oz of silver and the value of each coin cannot fall below 50 cents. It will likely gain good value in inflation or deflation. Silver supplies are tight and mine production will fall due to falling gold prices.

THERE IS MUCH LEFT TO HAPPEN IN FOREIGN MARKETS YET

With an estimated $200 billion in accumulated non-performing loans - five times the equity capital of all Chinese banks - China's banking system is essentially insolvent. At least 50% of China's state-owned companies are in the red, constituting a far larger chunk of the economy than failing companies representing any other Asian country.

WILL the smart Chinese again seek shelter in the currency, which has served them well for over 3,000 years: GOLD?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines112497.html

THERE IS MUCH LEFT TO HAPPEN IN FOREIGN MARKETS YET

With an estimated $200 billion in accumulated non-performing loans - five times the equity capital of all Chinese banks - China's banking system is essentially insolvent. At least 50% of China's state-owned companies are in the red, constituting a far larger chunk of the economy than failing companies representing any other Asian country.

WILL the smart Chinese again seek shelter in the currency, which has served them well for over 3,000 years: GOLD?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines112497.html

I'm a newcomer to gold also. I believe you will soon witness and participate in the reversal of a long bear market for gold. I have only owned gold for a month, but based on the amount of trauma I've experienced in this short time, I take my hat off to these fellows who have rode this storm for years. They are relentless as we should also learn to be.
Pull your hat down over your ears and follow through. You own a rare substance that is treasured worldwide...without exception...all cultures...all economies. You bought it for less than it cost to produce and it is becoming scarcer each day...worldwide population increases while supplies dwindle.
Let's turn a deaf ear to prognosticators and self-second-guessing. Go with your first instinct...it's your best bet.
On a lighter note, you think you're shook up...I had to go see my shrink
last week in hopes he could explain away my obsession with gold. We went through hours of regression and determined that it was mother's fault.
You see, she used to beat me and then give me banana pudding...now I'm obsessed with yellow things.

I'm a newcomer to gold also. I believe you will soon witness and participate in the reversal of a long bear market for gold. I have only owned gold for a month, but based on the amount of trauma I've experienced in this short time, I take my hat off to these fellows who have rode this storm for years. They are relentless as we should also learn to be.
Pull your hat down over your ears and follow through. You own a rare substance that is treasured worldwide...without exception...all cultures...all economies. You bought it for less than it cost to produce and it is becoming scarcer each day...worldwide population increases while supplies dwindle.
Let's turn a deaf ear to prognosticators and self-second-guessing. Go with your first instinct...it's your best bet.
On a lighter note, you think you're shook up...I had to go see my shrink
last week in hopes he could explain away my obsession with gold. We went through hours of regression and determined that it was mother's fault.
You see, she used to beat me and then give me banana pudding...now I obsessed with yellow things.

I'm a newcomer to gold also. I believe you will soon witness and participate in the reversal of a long bear market for gold. I have only owned gold for a month, but based on the amount of trauma I've experienced in this short time, I take my hat off to these fellows who have rode this storm for years. They are relentless as we should also learn to be.
Pull your hat down over your ears and follow through. You own a rare substance that is treasured worldwide...without exception...all cultures...all economies. You bought it for less than it cost to produce and it is becoming scarcer each day...worldwide population increases while supplies dwindle.
Let's turn a deaf ear to prognosticators and self-second-guessing. Go with your first instinct...it's your best bet.
On a lighter note, you think you're shook up...I had to go see my shrink
last week in hopes he could explain away my obsession with gold. We went through hours of regression and determined that it was mother's fault.
You see, she used to beat me and then give me banana pudding...now I'm obsessed with yellow things.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971201/korea_imf_cabinet_1.html

6 Michael Jordan Basketball = 1 oz gold


1 1/2 shares GB Packer stock = 1 oz gold
( souvenier quality - no vote
non transferable, non
appreciable )

4 pair designer tennis shoes = 1 oz gold

1 GB Packers Superbowl hummel = 10 oz gold
( A hummel is a ceramic figurine
about the size of a coffee cup )



What do other people see thar I can't?

Golden CheeseHead - Packers are built for frozen tundra,
not carpet. Vikes by 6

What would happen if Michael Jordan demanded to be paid in bullion?

Interest here has dropped so dramatically that Kitco is cloning newcomers to cover up the slack. This has got to be bullish. The carnage continues on tertiary markets. They seem to be collapsing faster than they rally. Dow's above 8000. A couple weeks ago that meant new highs to ensue. Does it still?

Thought I would mention that the XAU/Spot Ratio was .239 for the past three trading days.

Korea stocks down 4.7% right now.

Just read CNNfn report on London action this morning. Apparently in the first hour gold was steady to slightly up when two "bullion houses" came in to set the price $3 lower. This apparently surprised the other marketers. At the end of the article it mentioned the year long shorting of gold.

When I saw that a little light bulb turned on inside my skull. Here is the story as I see it: why gold is going down ( for now ) .

See my Dec 1st AM posts regarding a synopsis of Another's posts. We start here with the premise that gold pricing is driven by a cartel which dictates the price. The next post asked the question of WHY. Here is one possible reason the cartel is, for the time being, lowering the dictated "price" of gold.

THEY ARE TRYING TO FORESTALL A 'SHORT COVERING' CRISIS WHICH WILL TRIGGER A GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL FIRE STORM.

It is plain that in a commodities sense gold should be rising because production is not meeting demand. It is likely that the Arabs and now the Asians have been competing to buy gold through back door markets so as not to spike public prices. The Asians basicly disrupted the deal. This precipitated a need to begin to lower the public price of gold in order to stave off retail demand which might compete with these groups. Unfortunately the activity of consistently lowering the price ( dictated ) was seen by futures traders who have further complicated matters by creating a huge short contract burden on the paper market.

The problem is that if the price goes up the whole deal blows open and the sky will, in truth, fall. The short covering rally in gold price will trigger the Arab currency avalanche into the market. This is inevitable in the long run given the Asian wild card. But now with a huge short position in gold ANY RISE IN PRICE WILL TRIGGER A SHORT COVERING RALLY which will in turn ignite a global monetary catastrophy.

The cartel is buying time. But that is the only thing they are doing. Gold will drop until it becomes plainly obvious that the entire thing is rigged. Something will trigger it. The question is what is the cartel doing now to position itself for survival and increasing dominance in the unfolding chain of events.

Just read CNNfn report on London action this morning. Apparently in the first hour gold was steady to slightly up when two "bullion houses" came in to set the price $3 lower. This apparently surprised the other marketers. At the end of the article it mentioned the year long shorting of gold.

When I saw that a little light bulb turned on inside my skull. Here is the story as I see it: why gold is going down ( for now ) .

See my Dec 1st AM posts regarding a synopsis of Another's posts. We start here with the premise that gold pricing is driven by a cartel which dictates the price. The next post asked the question of WHY. Here is one possible reason the cartel is, for the time being, lowering the dictated "price" of gold.

THEY ARE TRYING TO FORESTALL A 'SHORT COVERING' CRISIS WHICH WILL TRIGGER A GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL FIRE STORM.

It is plain that in a commodities sense gold should be rising because production is not meeting demand. It is likely that the Arabs and now the Asians have been competing to buy gold through back door markets so as not to spike public prices. The Asians basicly disrupted the deal. This precipitated a need to begin to lower the public price of gold in order to stave off retail demand which might compete with these groups. Unfortunately the activity of consistently lowering the price ( dictated ) was seen by futures traders who have further complicated matters by creating a huge short contract burden on the paper market.

The problem is that if the price goes up the whole deal blows open and the sky will, in truth, fall. The short covering rally in gold price will trigger the Arab currency avalanche into the market. This is inevitable in the long run given the Asian wild card. But now with a huge short position in gold ANY RISE IN PRICE WILL TRIGGER A SHORT COVERING RALLY which will in turn ignite a global monetary catastrophy.

The cartel is buying time. But that is the only thing they are doing. Gold will drop until it becomes plainly obvious that the entire thing is rigged. Something will trigger it. The question is what is the cartel doing now to position itself for survival and increasing dominance in the unfolding chain of events.

Another good sign that something is happening or about to happen. Japan also weak tonight.

Arden what do you think the chances of a serious short-squueze on the decs gold?

No offence but, if my appearance is bullish, then you are a desparate man.

How is the fire situation?

If this Double posts It is not my intention, however for some reason most comments are double posting.

I believe there is a great concern that the gold market is about to explode. I made a decision to take delivery on Comex Dec Futures contracts that I placed at prices that are within $15 of todays price.
As a gold trader and invester this difference in price has little meaning when viewed from the big picture that most of us at Kitco believe.
This delivery that is taking place was noticed on Wednesday Nov 26 1997. Maybe due to the holiday or maybe to determine the real size of the takers. Once notice is tendered you have three business days to accept tender or retender your contracts. The real size of the takers won't be known until Thursday. As for myself funds were wired to take delivery and notice will be issued tomorrow of the tender acceptance.

The Market looks nervous from the short side. The constant hammering and lower pricing at the London Fixings is with purpose--to shake up longs to offset the short positions and avoid a squeeze.

As a point of interest I believe that gold in this world is the closest you will be to a truth. Don't borrow to speculate and don't use leverage and you will not lose long term.

Buy 100 Maple Leafs 9999% Pure at $309 ea ( $30,900. Delivered ) and one
Dec 98 280 put for $580. 10% down side risk. What do you think?

LONDON ( BBC ) : It was announced this weekend that "Barclays to close BZW share trading"

"Banking group Barclays is to withdraw from equity activities in the Japanese market."

"The bank announced the IMMEDIATE CLOSURE of its BZW share trading
operations, after it failed to find a buyer for its BZW Securities ( Japan ) Ltd subsidiary."

A Seaman's Axiom for survival: "When in a sinking ship, FOLLOW THE RATS!"
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html

All-I believe that the insane speculation that we are witnessing in the world's paper markets will not be stopped by AG's "Irrational Exhuberance" and similar pronouncements but by much tighter monetary policy.
I think that even AG must be amazed that the "salutory" effect evaporated within a month. Namely, I think that in order to stop this immense bubble, this immense speculation from expanding even further the rates will have to go up not by .5-1% but more like 2-3%. This of course will kill the market as well. The demand for liquidity is totally out of control. As mentioned here before, the M3 ( cash and cash equivalents ) is exploding at well over 10% annualy. Look at these rates. Until this new era BS, economists watched these figures religiously. The money supply change was one of the most important indicator for inflation.

Whether this historic monstrosity will end up in a deflationary or inflationary crash is too early to tell. Still, if I have to guess I must vote for a deflationary crash, just because of what is gold telling us. Unless every aspect of the gold market is controlled, gold with its depth and sophistication is indicating or rather shouting :DEFLATION AHEAD; RUN FOR SAFETY. Which by the way is still gold, except not necessarily at these high levels.
Last interesting point. I have calculated, based on the last 150 years of inflation figures that inflation adjusted gold price, as of the end of last year is $418.50. Clearly , gold has not kept up with inflation. All it means gold is exceedingly cheap at this price, provided that we are not collapsing into a deflationary abyss.

Any thoughts on this????

Allen, I would like to thank you for taking the time to make some sense out of the series of puzzling posts by ANOTHER. Your post this morning made a lot of sense to me. I am not sure that I understand why CB's would have to be involved in oil/gold deals, however. Basically, gold producers "forward sell" their unmined gold as a matter of course. What is to keep the oil producing countries from "forward selling" unproduced oil in return for unproduced gold? Perhaps the CB's only participate in order to keep the current price down.

Also, your post this evening @ 21:42 was a great contribution to all kitcoites. Perhaps the cartel is also buying at those levels they establish every morning. I would bet that they are not selling their gold at those prices. I do have some difficulty in dealing with statements about a "huge short position in gold" - for every short, there has to be a long. So, it could be said that there is a "huge long position in gold". I am not sure the open interest in gold ( vis-a-vis the supply on hand ) is so unusual in commodity markets. You can find huge open interest positions in practically any of the grains, when compared with the annual production of grain plus stores of grains. I would like for some industrious kitcoite to maybe study the relative open interest positions in say, soybeans, with the amount of annual production and world supply.

Again, I would like to thank you for the time and effort you put into this matter, and especially thank you for posting it for the benefit of the rest of us.

Tyler Rose

Allen, I would like to thank you for taking the time to make some sense out of the series of puzzling posts by ANOTHER. Your post this morning made a lot of sense to me. I am not sure that I understand why CB's would have to be involved in oil/gold deals, however. Basically, gold producers "forward sell" their unmined gold as a matter of course. What is to keep the oil producing countries from "forward selling" unproduced oil in return for unproduced gold? Perhaps the CB's only participate in order to keep the current price down.

Also, your post this evening @ 21:42 was a great contribution to all kitcoites. Perhaps the cartel is also buying at those levels they establish every morning. I would bet that they are not selling their gold at those prices. I do have some difficulty in dealing with statements about a "huge short position in gold" - for every short, there has to be a long. So, it could be said that there is a "huge long position in gold". I am not sure the open interest in gold ( vis-a-vis the supply on hand ) is so unusual in commodity markets. You can find huge open interest positions in practically any of the grains, when compared with the annual production of grain plus stores of grains. I would like for some industrious kitcoite to maybe study the relative open interest positions in say, soybeans, with the amount of annual production and world supply.

Again, I would like to thank you for the time and effort you put into this matter, and especially thank you for posting it for the benefit of the rest of us.

Tyler Rose

He has been absent for too long and his opinion is sorely missed.

hello, hello...what say the group to this: If I was paying an
obligation and I offered the payee the choice of assayed gold dore
bar or endorsed stock certificates, which would you select?

The US$ has been backed by gold since AG was appointed by Reagan. It was reconfirmed over the week-end by L.Kudlow.You all knew AG is a
Gold man.This partial backing of the US$ by Gold and BLACK GOLD is in part what has delivered one of the largest sustained growths,minus inflation, and to say the least, remarkable confidence in US$ equities and bonds.

Another contibuting factor to this remarkable world confidence in the US$
is the LAW OF FORCE which since the demise of the USSR has almost
exlusively been enforced by the US.
Other facotrs include massive propaganda / disinformation campaigns,
foreign stock market manipulations, witness the recent carnage is parts
of SE Asia.

HE WHO HAS THE GOLD RULES.

The US has by far the most GOLD and rumor has it that they still hold a
substancial amount of European Gold captured after the War from central
banks and those Banks today have part physical gold and part US paper
Gold receipts for the Gold held in the US on their behalf.
They also control Black GOLD ( oil ) .As you all know Oil is priced in US$
and falling in price. This has been accomplished by the LAW OF FORCE
and a carrot, partial payment in GOLD as set out in ANOTHERS posts.
The oil Kingdoms had been accepting paper GOLD, but more recently
requested physical GOLD.Thus AG closed the covert GOLD Window.
In order to keep the paper game alive and deliver the promised GOLD the US is now engaged in a massive campaign to force others ( Can,Aust,etc. ) to sell their Gold .The public propaganda war against GOLD was designed to stiffle demand.It has worked somewhat in the West but not
in the East. Which brings me to the present.

A systematic and intensive campaign has been under way for sometime now to force GOLD sales from the Swiss and the EU.Let's face facts
why are they trying to force GOLD sales if the aim to compensate
deserving victims of the HOLOCAUST. The Swiss could easily raise one
billion US$ paper.But that is not the aim, it is to force the sale of GOLD
that has been already bought. Let's add to this the incredible short
positions in GOLD and you have the foundations of sustained limit up
moves in GOLD much much greater than we saw back in 1972 and 76.
On this point I agree with ANOTHER.

However I disagree with his views on mining stocks, I believe countries
that will able to produce GOLD and PGE since for a period of time GOLD will be in very short supply,will prosper greatly and l make the following predictions.

1.Can$ will be higher than the US$ by 1999 ( just as in the 70"s )

2.South Africa will be engulfed in a tribal civil war by 1999,little Gold
produced.

3.Most countries will have dual currencies internal and external.

more predictions later....

Live long and prosper.