Bart

Thank you

G'day mate! as the leaf turns over......

G'night all~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The collapse of the IMF talks along with the resultant breakdown of their stocks looks awfull bad...they have lost around 55% of their stock market equity this year from the peak...Combined with similar performances in Thailand and Indonesia, when does this carnage have an affect on the US markets?

Dear Learning,

I too entered the gold market at about $US335. As I am an Australian, I have not been hurt quite as bad because our dollar has gone down with the price of Au.

My only advice to you is to read these pages. Learn and enjoy BUT keep your feet on the ground. Don't get swallowed up by unrealistic scenarios. Read finacial papers etc as well. This chat group are gold "believers'. You might want to find some more balanced assessments.

Best wishes always.

Interesting week.

Silver - Comfortably within the channel, and with tonight's action, seems headed back to the channel top.

Gold - With all the negative hype, gold has barely broken out of the channel bottom, but seems reluctant to leave this channel. Clearly not a positive sign, but it could be worse. Certainly no clear change in the trend, at least not a major change, yet. Also clearly not a climactic collapse. Why not? It seems to be expected. It appears that somewhere, someone is supporting gold.

Platinum - Although PL price is skidding along the channel bottom, the new downward trending channel seems to be holding. Looking better as an opportunity to go long.

Palladium - Via its languishing sideways motion, it has clearly broken out of its long-term upward channel, and a change in trend is in progress. Although it may still be too early to predict where it will go from here, it seems the new channel top I tentatively defined a week or so ago may well hold ( the dotted lines ) . For risk takers, this may well be a good shorting opportunity.

Exciting times. Definitely not boring.

I too have shared your interest in classical monetary theory and its possible influence on the markets...

Nominal GNP is equal to your monetary agregate of choice ( Mx ) times velocity.

If the additional dollars being printed by the Fed/treasury are sitting under pillows in Moscow or Sao Paulo then the additional reserves will not drive inflation ( or interest rates ) higher because the velocity is being reduced.

Anybody out there on this list have any pointers towards an independent method of calculating velocity? My rememberances from my college days was that most economists just assumed a stable velocity in their calculations. I seem to remember most papers on this subject only estimated velocity as a dependent variable from the know ( i.e. published data ) for nominal GNP and money supplies...

All of the above being said 'Steady', I do agree that monetary aggregates are going to be looked at more closely in the future, becuase the large , sustained increase in monetary reserves will rear its head somewhere down the line.

Morning Aurator!

Dear Aurator- is all well with you? The move?

Have just come in, and not yet scrolled back.

See you're saying 'thanks'to Bart and giving him [**] =2 x stars?

Shall we give him 3 GOLD *** ??!! Morning Bart!!

I've missed you all in the rush of the last weeks, but my 'glimpses' show a new/old? Kitco of real quality.

Thanks to all for News & Urls and some great thinking!

Regards.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Over the holiday , I reviewed selected copies of Kitco
posts for the past year. I was "STUNNED" to realize that
the major voices on this channel, although undoubtably
brilliant, predicted price / behavior of Gold was completely
wrong. I make this comment not as a criticism, but rather
to suggest that TECHNICAL ANALYSIS should be
given equal time.

Don't be stunned. These people have their own logic

Hoosier Gold Bug--One of the questions I have is about underground money, i.e. drug money, unreported income etc. We're talking hundreds of billions here. Does this money get counted in the official Govt. stats? I wonder how much of this black market money has found its way into US stocks, bonds, real estate and banks.

Schippi Bring it on! I too hope TA's contribute to kitco in greater numbers..step up to the Mike,,,,


Spock Cool logic.

colleeen stay tuned....

Here is a wee treat for the *OTHER* Kitcoite who uses a Macintosh--BTW Macintosh users are getting as scarce and as endangered as goldbugs in these post-modern fin-de-sicle narcosed nineties...pass the prozac..---Yes a treat --- a delightful little shareware D.A. ( thats Desk Accessory in Macspeak ) called Conversion.

Nothing to do with the road to Damascus, or even the road to hell, which is paved with good intention, and fallen leaves. No, this little D.A. converts a thousand measurements into a thousand others, I have had it so long, I take it for granted, and assumed that goldbugs are able to at least convert Tonnes to M Oz, and vice is nicer cos theyre the important measurements and the most used in both mining and economics.
Gold bug Macintosh users - now theres a minority!!

But, this gives me the opportunity, as if I really needed one anyway, to speach ya about the relationship between wheat and gold.
There is one.
Perhaps I should just throw the question to those present. Yes


What is the relationship between wheat and gold?


The answer is in this D.A. - and many other places besides
Winner to get 2 Troy Pennyweight of the ultimate gold-bugs snake oil.


http://www.hookele.com/lfi/gold.html


auratoenigma

Auric
G'day, one of the questions I have ( although may regret having ) is, What is a Hoosier?

To All

Gee fellas - this site is becoming really

entertaining. Lately, it's like reading say "The Pelican

Brief", or worse.

Its becoming a fascinating mixture of voodoo,

economics, politics, geopolitics, history, partial

truths, conspiracy theories. It also has some good info

sometimes.

The post by Tzadeak is a good example - the guy had

me going - some good points like the NAZI swiss gold

propaganda play.

But then comes the prediction - a tribal war in

South Africa in 1999 which stops gold production.

Golly GEE. What utter crap !! And at least for me,

the whole item is discredited.

What "tribes" are going to fight this war exactly??

Can you name a tribe?? Do you know anything about

RSA?? RSA has been "imploding" or "tanking" or

"drowning in red ink" since I started reading Kitco.

It gets a little tiresome folks.

How about a rebellion in Quebec with millions dead??

How about USA nuked by Iraqi suicide troops carrying

Russian suitcase bombs??

More realistically - how about US conspiracy

to acquire all world gold and production thereof

backfires as reorganized South African mines ( with

worlds lowest average cost ) force North American

closures. US forced to destroy South Africa with

Nuclear missiles.

Your other two predictions are also not going to happen.

Come on Tzadeak - Life is tough enough without

this kind of sillybuggers kidstuff. Get serious, boyo.

Hoosier is a way of describing an inhabitant of a flat boring midwestern farming state whose claim to fame is basketball and that they think they are nicer than people from the east and west coasts. In sum, a hoosier is one with a terminable inferiority complex so they rave against Washington and the coasts and lay claim to down home virtue. Think of it as Missisippi without the more open racism or prejudice. A Hoosier defined for an Aussie Thank you!

Allen ( USA ) :

Scenario One:

The gold price is kept stable or low, so that Arabs ( and other insiders ) can quietly buy gold on the OTC markets, for whatever reason, perhaps subsidize the purchase of oil. The Asians have taken advantage of the low gold prices, and are also buying at the same OTC prices. At some point in the above scenario, others - general public? senses the buying activity, and is discouraged from buying by a steadily dropping price of gold. Why buy when gold is still getting cheaper?

The dollar is strong, simply because gold is priced in dollars. This approach will fail abruptly when the gold price can no longer be steadily pushed down, and the price of gold will skyrocket.

Scenario Two:

Wealthy sponsors of the ECU/EMU/EURO wish to keep the US dollar strong, to maintain a favorable balance of trade, at least until the effective deadline of entry into the European Union ( sometime before Jan 1, 1999 ) . The sponsors sell or loan gold to keep the dollar strong, benefitting from the interest that they can earn from their dollar purchases. When the ECU is successfully launched, the sponsors will sell their dollars, weakening the competing US dollar in the process, and strengthening the EURO. This process in weakening the US dollar is likely to be relatively orderly.

Scenario Three: Gold is being traded at the LBMA as it has been traded for over 200 years. Central banks can loan each other gold, so that the recipient can use the loaned gold to create more ( US dollar ) reserves to cover emergencies. No official book entries are needed, since gold is not actually sold. By doing this they also convert a nonperforming asset ( gold ) into an money making one, as long as gold prices are stable or dropping. When excess gold is available, reflected by dropping gold prices, the market is liquid, and dollar purchases with interest earned are attractive. If gold is not readily available for loans, this central bank source of liquidity dries up. If there are several central banks in crisis, and the gold-rich central banks are propping them up, at some point these trades will unravel when the gold-rich banks run out of gold loans. The gold-rich banks would probably not want to sell their gold to bail out another weaker bank. However, if the pipeline dries up, one of the weaker banks may fail abruptly, possibly triggering a world-wide financial crisis. This last scenario could also cause a dramatic rise in the price of gold, with potentially dire consequences.

My assessment is that some mixture of the three above scenarios is actually happening. Key to all of the above is to make gold readily available to the markets. When the gold sales end, or the loan supply dries up, the dollar will fall, and gold will rise. In the 200+ year history of the LBMA, this process of central bank selling has happened before. One of the times was in the 70's when the US wanted everyone to believe that the dollar could be kept firmly pegged to gold. I would guess another time like this was in the 20's when gold left Europe for the US. Now the gold is going to Asia and the Middle East.

John Disney__A

G'day, Agreed. There's only so much conspiracy theory and Doom and Slick willy that a soul can read.

One abbreviation was omitted from that excellent post a while ago


MEGO My eyes glaze over.

ROR

What Aussie?

Goodnight downunder and upover!

Somehow we survived another gold down day!

By the way, MidAmerica has not caught on to the gold coin rally yet.

G'day aurator, ROR--I'll have to research where the term Hoosier originated. One theory--back in pioneer days, when someone knocked at the door the response was, "who's here?" Phonetically came out sounding like "hoo zhur" in Indiana speak. The late Mike Royko, one of my favorite columnists, stated the term was derived from "hidjin", a term meaning an uncouth person!

Tell it like it is. But don't expect ot get friendly responses. I too have joined this chat group for information. Some of it has been very good. But some has not. Hope you get something out of it.

Nick@C You been eaten by those rotties? or are they like lambs around you? Sorry completely off topic

perhaps my last taile of bucolic splendour

'Member the Turkey? We dont celebrate Thanksgiving, lucky beast, but christmas is not far away ( Just kidding TED ) The turkey is anexcellent surrogate mum for the orphaned ducklings/tucks. All 6 tucks are still alive - none survived last year- she is one mean mother turkey she don't let nothing get near her tucks. They haven't swum yet. Was wondering what they'd be called if the pheasant was looking after them instead?

Hoosier gold bug or anybody

Trying to remember-

believe it goes something like this

( change in money supply ) + change in velocity =

( change in GNP ) + ( change in GNP deflator )

OR

( Monetary Base ) * ( velocity ) = GNP

Im sure I have this screwed up some way - but its

close = please enlighten me

Webster's online Dictionary says-- perhaps an alteration of "hoozer", an English dialect word meaning anything big of its kind. Hmmm.... Perhaps my former girlfriends meant something else when they called me a "Hoosier". ( evil grin thing )

Spock


I shall assume you are from another planet and make allowances, not take umbrage at your insult of one of the greatest contributors on this site John Disney__A

You said you came for information

John Disney__A and many others come here to give information


spot the difference

join the team


give till it hurts

AURIC ROTFLTBOMFOARITG

aurator--Here is a nice home for any ducks raised by pheasants
http://www.nexus-pt.com/nex/rest/private/phuket/inde
x.htm

Yes I can name a number of tribes in SA, and I am somewhat familiar with the Gold mining situation. I have a number of friends who are and have been investors there since 1966. I have also made the same prediction to them, and I must confess that your reaction was quite similar to theirs. Remember this is just my prediction, albeit well reasoned.

I believe that Winnie or another militant will become Deputy PM . This will usher in a new era there to say the least.The tribal war will be mainly between the whites who have defacto power ( guns ) and Blacks, the current T&R commission is attempting to smooth transition publicly,but I do not beleive the whites will give power easily. This will limit investment in Gold Mining and as I stated in my previous post there will be some production, but little.

One of the most frequent questions one of these friends asks me is
why doesn't the US make an alliance with SA and back the US$ with gold?

I beleive that since the US is now the largest gold producer and Canada
a potential second largest, that they have calculated that they would not need SA Gold to rule and in any event the production there would be
limited by deep geological setiing of a good portion of the deposits and
the high costs involved as well as the uncertain political stability.

I do hope I am wrong.

http://www.nexus-pt.com/nex/rest/private/phuket/index.htm

For Aurator

Crusty calling Salty

You are a sweetie pie

For Spock

Do you believe I was seeking a friendly response ?? Come now old

buddy -

Auric

Quick Draw McURL !!

an excellent place for a holiday just make sure Sobhraj isn't about.

Cin Cin is the name of a very popular restaurant on the waterfront Auckland Harbour. Cin Cin is also a coarse name for the willy that slick is named after...Oh Oh
My favourite mis-spelling... this one on a menu in a restaurant in Agra ( you know where the Taj is )

Cock and lime


as in lime and cockacola

inneresting....couldn't say cck pheasant before, does this mean I can talk about fasism, ( not that I want to ) but I noticed, it was prohibited by a nanny before, don't tell me, that along with passwords ( mine is grotesque I've asked for it to be changed ) we now have the ability to swear?

Croesus!

note the  to get passed Mr Bowlder

Cock and cck
what tangles, what nonsense
reminds me of the problems the good burghers of Scunthorpe, England used to have with censored e-mail till some-one figured out why.

puzzles in an enigma in a vronsky maze

Arf arf--smack, smack. Nick@C will no longer be posting as he has been eaten alive. Bow wow to all ( actually, the two rotties are very gentle, unless you are trying to rob my house via the back yard--in which case you had better be fleet of foot or have a large cannon ) .

I own some turkeys too, mate. I won't name the guilty gold and oil companies. I had a bad trading day. Made 3 and lost 8 ( and I ain't talkin' hundreds ) . I am not in a good mood and plan on punishing a few Victoria Bitters tonight.

Now more seriously. Things are SO DAMNED BAD for gold shares right now that I am accumulating rather large ( for me ) positions in the companies I think will survive. You've heard it here before folks ( perhaps too frequently and DEFINITELY too early ) , but if you have the resources and the nerve, this could be a great time to buy gold shares. If something has changed in the usual up and down cycle for precious metals and the detractors that say "gold is dead" are correct, then you, I, and a whole lot of Asians, Arabs etc. are going to lose a lot of money ( at least temporarily ) . The negativity surrounding gold right now is so reminiscent of other bottoms I have witnessed that I believe a turnaround is imminent. As posted earlier tonight by Schippi??-- the "experts" on this site have been overwhelmingly wrong on the direction of gold for a long time. Notice how a lot of the "experts" are pretty scarce right now. Another sign that a bottom is near? Picking bottoms is a dangerous ( and expensive ) business. The safe way to play is to wait for the turnaround is confirmed. I play for high stakes. There are days like today where I wish I had gone to a casino instead.

Steven J. Kaplan

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html

Options trading extremely bullish ( for gold ) .

Bush fires are ravaging New South Wales right now. Many people losing their homes. Will post a satellite photo as soon as it gets dark.

More importantly, two firemen have lost their lives. Two hundred+ uncontrolled fires now raging. Worse weather ( hot and dry ) expected later this week.

I buffed my eagles in the Saturday sun
I rolled my Putz over, and I saw he was done

Now I believe in AG's miracles
'Cause I saw one in the Nikkei tonight

Yeah, the Fed R is my baby,
It don't matter if your PM's gold or white!


I heard the message from the new Rising Sun
I sold my canned goods and my .45 gun

Paper and metal, politically correct equality
Truth is Pretcher's wrong, Granville's right

Yeah, sweet crude's a big maybe
It don't matter if your commodity is black or white.

Nick@C Tasty hot dogs
Where can I get oz option quotes, mate? Analogpaper things have stocks not options.
Like I said, Firefighters are the salt of the earth, fortunately I count a couple amongst my friends.

For Zadeak

Im glad that you hope you are wrong - your hopes are fulfilled -

because you ARE.

Im glad that you have friends - both in and out of

the mining industry - I can understand that the reaction

of your friends that are familiar with RSA is similar

to mine.

The "tribal war" that you referred to is apparently

going to between the WHITE tribe and the BLACK tribe.

Very good Zadeak - many of us are familiar with those

tribes. I had mistakenly pictured something more

subtle.

Winnie ( next deputy prime minister according to a

new prediction of yours and possibly a month old copy

of TIME magazine ) will apparently lead this battle

for the Black tribe. You seem to think that The White

tribe ( I am a member of this tribe ) has the power and

the guns. Maybe that copy of TIME is much older than

I thought.

As you MUST know, Winnie has been implicated in a

string of murders of child "activists" and the murder

of a doctor in a attempt to cover up her less appetising

activities. Her appeal even to militants has faded a lot

( and was always overstated ) . The ANC seems to be

disassociating themselves from her as fast as they can.

She is also rumoured to have been a spy for the South

African Police. Hard to see her as next deputy PM IMHO.

You seem to think that the US is the World's largest

gold producer - You got that wrong too - I believe that even

the restructured ANGLO american gold company will

outproduce either Canada or the US.

I look forward to your next set of predictions

with GREAT interest but I suggest you may wish to spend

a bit more time at the old drawing board.

Sorry, off topic. Aussie bush fires raging out of control. 200+ fires. Gale force winds. Ring of fire around Sydney. State of Emergency now declared. TV programs have been taken over by bushfire "specials". Things are grim down under, folks. Hope you're all sleeping peacefully.

What the heck. Might as well have some laughs, right? : )


When $300 was gone
And still you held on... Migraine

You don't think it will go down
But it CAME from the ground... DOW Gain.

Eagle don't fly
Eagle don't fly
Eagle don't fly

Cash Drain.


If you have more to lose
Then make up a noose... Metal Wane.

When your margin is gone
And you still want to fawn... Yellow Pain.

Don't forget this fact
$400 ain't coming back

Gold don't lie
Gold don't lie
Gold don't lie

oh, My Brain.
I'm insane.
Rain, rain, rain.

who cares, and i thought you were getting better,

The last sentence of your post--we need badly. People are dying down here. Makes the price of gold seem insignificant.

Aurator - I am better. I actually have a black cash flow now.
Solid black, none of this red/black/reddish black/dark red stuff
anymore.

I'll actually be able to buy platinum in '98. : ) Free of the Rock
Farm at last.


Rig in Japan, tonight
Rig in Japan, all right!

Things are easy when they're rigged in Japan. : )

I had no illusions that I'd ever find the $300 resistance
in AG's eyes.

He did what he did to thee.

Now it's history.

I see.

Is gold on the comeback again?

Will things happen while they can?
I will wait here for the spike tonight.

Rig in Japan, all right!
Rig in Japan, rates are tight!

Rig in Japan, oh, the eastern sea so blue.
Rig in Japan, ALL RIGHT!

Things are easy when they're rigged in Japan!

Well, Nick, I have a new-found appreciation for things non-gold.

I've lost almost $40K this year. That's close to 50% of everything
I have. God, it's just been killing me, watching it all slip
away for nothing. But I don't care anymore.

I'm sickeningly grateful just to have real job again. : )

I believe I am correct the US is No.1 Gold Producer ck World Gold
Council production figures.In any event the SA production has been steadily in decline for years now.A world famous Geologist spoke about the coming problems with the SA Gold deposits in great detail, a couple years ago and he ought to know.

I said Winnie or another militant leader. Witness the friends Mr.Mandela
has been kissing lately, Kgadaffi, etc.. in my view a deal was struck
between the whites and the ANC for Mandela's Government to be
equaly shared and transitional, and I must say that it was the only way
out of a terrible situation. But the new elections in 1999 or thereabouts
and large ANC majority will force change, surely you don't disagree that the majority of the top military and economic positions are today mostly
held by the whites The Blacks will demand housing, electricity and so on
and the ANC this time will be forced to deliver.

I can't see another way out. The whites will not give up power easily. I see eventually substantial migration of whites and a similar situation
in store for SA that we had for Rhodisia and have today in Zimbabwe.

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

Last week I posted a comment concerning Legend Mining NL. I am a Legend Mining Nl share holder.

Munni Munni Complex:

from limited exploration the following resources are known.....

Inferred resource of 20 to 30 million tonnes @ 3 g/t platiniods

Indicated resource of 3 million ounces silver.

Early days.

1. ASX Announcement

LEGEND MINING NL 1997-11-26 ASX-SIGNAL-G

HOMEX - Perth

+++++++++++++++++++++++++ At 2:00pm on Tuesday 25/11/1997 ( West

Australian Time ) geologists reported that the exploration crosscut drive

exposed visible native silver.

Samples have been dispatched to the laboratory for detailed analysis.

Results will be released when available.

As previously advised the joint venture partners intend to extract a

bulk sample of o

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

Last week I posted a comment concerning Legend Mining NL. I am a Legend Mining Nl share holder.

Munni Munni Complex:

from limited exploration the following resources are known.....

Inferred resource of 20 to 30 million tonnes @ 3 g/t platiniods

Indicated resource of 3 million ounces silver.

Early days.

1. ASX Announcement

LEGEND MINING NL 1997-11-26 ASX-SIGNAL-G

HOMEX - Perth

+++++++++++++++++++++++++ At 2:00pm on Tuesday 25/11/1997 ( West

Australian Time ) geologists reported that the exploration crosscut drive

exposed visible native silver.

Samples have been dispatched to the laboratory for detailed analysis.

Results will be released when available.

As previously advised the joint venture partners intend to extract a

bulk sample of o

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

Last week I posted a comment concerning Legend Mining NL. I am a Legend Mining Nl share holder.

Munni Munni Complex:

from limited exploration the following resources are known.....

Inferred resource of 20 to 30 million tonnes @ 3 g/t platiniods

Indicated resource of 3 million ounces silver.

Early days.

1. ASX Announcement

LEGEND MINING NL 1997-11-26 ASX-SIGNAL-G

HOMEX - Perth

+++++++++++++++++++++++++ At 2:00pm on Tuesday 25/11/1997 ( West

Australian Time ) geologists reported that the exploration crosscut drive

exposed visible native silver.

Samples have been dispatched to the laboratory for detailed analysis.

Results will be released when available.

As previously advised the joint venture partners intend to extract a

bulk sample of o

who cares--if you are alive and ( hopefully ) well and living in the USA, then you are MUCH better off than 90% of the people on this orb. Wealth is not measured in monetary terms alone. Families are grieving right now down here over the loss of loved ones. Many thousands have evacuated their homes. Count your blessings. On a personal note. I have always enjoyed your posts. I wondered what had happened to you. Welcome back. You have a friend down under. The 40k doesn't matter ( hurts like hell ) but doesn't matter. There are more important things--don't forget 'em. Cheers, Nick.

Sorray lads, but "it" keeps on dropping information. try again.

Last week I posted a commend concerning Legend Mining, who are in joint venture with

East Coast Minerals on three projects in the Pilbara district of Western Australia.

I am a Legend shareholder.

Geology reference......

AGSO Bulletin 242

Petrology and platinium group element geochemistry of Archaean layered mafic ultramafic

intrusions, west Pilbara Block, Western Australia.

ISSN 1039-2645

Known Resources of the Munni Munni complex..................

20 to 30 million tonnes @ 3 g/t platinoids, inferred resource

3 million ounces of silver, indicated resource.

1. Recent ASX announcement

LEGEND MINING NL 1997-11-26 ASX-SIGNAL-G

HOMEX - Perth

+++++++++++++++++++++++++ At 2:00pm on Tuesday 25/11/1997 ( West Australian

Time ) geologist

Sydney ( +fires on outskirts ) , Canberra ( lower left ) , + large smoky ares and fires.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth?imgsize=320&opt=-z?=326.571&ns=North&lon=209.999&ew=West&alt=9&img=learth.evif

who cares--I have to take my shoes off to count the number of times I've lost 40k. I still eat too much, drink too much, live in too big a house and have heaps of time to waste Bart's bandwidth!! Go to Indonesia, Zimbabwe or Ecuador and see how much this all counts in the scheme of things.

Sorry lads, but "it" keeps on dropping information. Try again.

Last week I posted a commend concerning Legend Mining, who are in joint venture with East Coast Minerals on three projects in the Pilbara district of Western Australia.

I am a Legend shareholder.

Geology reference......

AGSO Bulletin 242

Petrology and platinium group element geochemistry of Archaean layered mafic ultramafic intrusions, west Pilbara Block, Western Australia.

ISSN 1039-2645

Known Resources of the Munni Munni complex..................

20 to 30 million tonnes @ 3 g/t platinoids, inferred resource

3 million ounces of silver, indicated resource.

( 1 ) In 1987 - Elizabeth Hill ( part of Munni Munni ) discovered by Italian resource group Agip - drill results up to 3172 g/t.

( 2 ) LEG/ECM take over project - their drilling program grades up to 164,000 g/t Ag ( 16.4 % ) . LkAm

Sorry lads, but "it" keeps on dropping information. Try again.

Last week I posted a comment concerning Legend Mining, who are in joint venture with

East Coast Minerals on three projects in the Pilbara district of Western Australia.

I am a Legend shareholder.

Geology reference......

AGSO Bulletin 242

Petrology and platinium group element geochemistry of Archaean layered mafic ultramafic

intrusions, west Pilbara Block, Western Australia.

ISSN 1039-2645

Known Resources of the Munni Munni complex..................

20 to 30 million tonnes @ 3 g/t platinoids, inferred resource

3 million ounces of silver, indicated resource.

( 1 ) In 1987 - Elizabeth Hill ( part of Munni Munni ) discovered by Italian resource group

Agip - drill results up to 3172 g/t.

( 2 ) LEG/ECM take over project - their drilling program grades up to 164,00

Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezzzz, Haggis, You're gonna start a run on Legend shares before I can check em out. How much $$$ have they got in the bank?? If they're so goldurned good, why isn't the share price zooming?? Most importantly, how many shares do the director's brothers-in-laws second cousin's uncles own???

ALL INFO STATED HERE IS PUBLIC DOMAIN... CHECK IT OUT

MUNNI MUNNI COMPLEX - SILVER, PLATINIUM

Last week I posted a commend concerning Legend Mining, who are in joint venture with

East Coast Minerals on three projects in the Pilbara district of Western Australia.

Geology reference......AGSO Bulletin 242 Petrology and platinium group element

geochemistry of Archaean layered mafic ultramafic intrusions, west Pilbara Block,

Western Australia. ISSN 1039-2645

Known Resources of the Munni Munni complex..................20 to 30 million tonnes @ 3g/t platinoids, inferred resource. 3 million ounces of silver, indicated resource. ( 1 ) In 1987 - Elizabeth Hill ( part of Munni Munni ) discovered by Italian resource group Agip - drill results up to 3172 g/t. ( 2 ) LEG/ECM take over project - their drilling program grades up to 164,000 g/t Ag ( 16.4 % ) . ( 3 ) Mineable resource at Elizabeth Hill

conservatively estimated @ 3.05 Moz Ag, with Ag @ A$6.50/oz worth $19.8 M.

Honkers +4.33%
Nikkei -0.57% ( below 17000 )
S. Korea -4.14% ( how loooooow can they goooooooooooooooo )
Taiwan +3.77%
Schizophrenic Asia--as usual

Europe -- about mid day
DAX +.84%
FT-SE +1.17%
mostly black

Gold UP $19.70 ( ha ha, just kidding -- in your dreams!!! )

INFO IS PUBLIC DOMAIN ...CHECK IT OUT

History...MUNNI MUNNI COMPLEX -

( 1 ) In 1987 - Elizabeth Hill ( part of Munni Munni ) discovered by Italian resource group Agip - drill results up to 3172 g/t. ( 2 ) LEG/ECM take over project - their drilling program grades up to 164,000 g/t Ag ( 16.4 % ) . ( 3 ) Mineable resource at Elizabeth Hill conservatively estimated @ 3.05 Moz Ag, with Ag @ A$6.50/oz worth $19.8 M. ( 4 ) From previous drilling bulk sample grades estimated to range between 0.7 % - 3 % of Ag equivalent. ( 5 ) Now let's stand back for a moment and consider JubileeMine NL ( new

HOT nickel project ) . Reported 10 -12 % Ni - price took off big time. I know we're talking about silver here but REMEMBER at current prices a 1 % SILVER GRADE is equivalent to a NICKEL GRADE OF OVER 50 % and I must say this seems very likely given the areas history. ( 6 ) They have already confirmed the presence of massive sulphides and native silver. I won't at all be surprised that Munni Munni will proves to be a very ri

Yes! You are correct! There is not only a huge outstanding short position, but a huge outstanding long position in gold THAT MUST BE SATISFIED by the time the December contract expires. Those who are long are AWAITING DELIVERY. And how shall the shorts deliver? Where is the gold? I have seen in grain markets on the last trading day, the front contract run up 10-20% or more IN ONE DAY, as shorts who do not have the physical to deliver try to unwind their contracts to longs unwilling to let them loose unless the shorts PAY THROUGH THE NOSE!!!!

And I'm not kidding. Sorry to hear about the fires. How did they start?

After GENEROUS system Rps ....

THE FED FUNDS CLOSED Monday *6%!* *6%* *6%* *6%*

The 30 Treasury closed at 6.03.....
As of C-O-M Monday, the yield curve is inverted ( using the FED Funds rate ) for each issue other than the 30 yr. --And that is CLOSE

Did I NOT see what I saw? No mention from anyone? Anywhere? Is it now back to 5 1/2?

Well, thank goodness for Aurators medicinal gold post. Excuse me,
I got to grind-down a Maple Leaf...wonder what the dosage is for
ballooning mild depression?

Meanwhile, on the SDR front....they have an interest schedule and everything!
Monday December 1, 4:04 PM Eastern Time
US-SDR rate opener, weekly charge rates

WASHINGTON, Dec 1 ( Reuters ) - The International Monetary Fund said the opening exchange value of the US dollar
against the SDR was 1.35771, versus 1.36382 Wednesday.

The IMF said that for the week beginning December 1, the rate of interest and charges on the SDR is 4.32 percent. The rate of remuneration on members' creditor positions is also 4.32 percent. The rate of charge on members' use of fund credit is 4.73 percent.

http://www.cyberhaven.com/advertising/perthmint/

JAKE LLOYD-SMITH

Asian banks have bad loans of more than US$108

billion and need an immediate and massive injection

of cash to recapitalise their balance sheets, Jardine

Fleming says.

The injection - estimated at $55 billion - needed to

be directed towards Seoul and Bangkok, where the

financial sectors' problems were most acute, analyst

Vinod Changarath said.

"The magnitude of the [bad-loan] problem has

raised investor concern that banks will have to

recapitalise or else become insolvent. In either case,

shareholders will lose," Mr Changarath said.

In October, Jardine Fleming said bad loans might

total $73 billion, "a figure that now appears on the

low side".

The weak link will be the source of funding in a

region that is facing its biggest cash-crunch in a

decade as foreign lenders shy from rising risk.

He said governments would have to step in.

"South Korea needs $31.8 billion and Thailand $16

billion to recapitalise even if two years of

prospective cash flows are factored in," Mr

Changarath said. "These amounts work out to 172

per cent of existing shareholders' equity for South

Korea and 132 per cent for Thailand.

"There is thus no avoiding some form of state

intervention in these countries. The state is the only

likely agency, unless they put the banks up for sale,

and that may be politically difficult, especially in

South Korea."

The study examined the balance sheets of the 63

listed banks in the five Asean economies of

Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia and the

Philippines, plus South Korea.

It estimated that between them, the firms had

$108.5 billion in non-performing loans, and

assumed that 70 per cent of those would have to be

written off against shareholders' equity and

provisions.

"The difference between [a bank's] remaining

shareholders' equity and that needed to meet capital

adequacy requirements is the amount the bank

needs to raise," Mr Changarath said.

The picture that emerged showed vastly different

levels of need across the region.

"Surprisingly, we found that most banks, excluding

those in South Korea and Thailand, are

capital-sufficient [based on country-wise minima]

provided that two years of prospective cash flows

are added in," Mr Changarath said.

Bank sectors in Indonesia, Singapore and the

Philippines came in with a clean bills of health,

although Indonesia slipped into deficit if the two

years of prospective cash flows were stripped out.

The Malaysian situation raised some concern. Mr

Changarath said Malaysian banks were expected to

be short of the statutory minimum by just $100

million.

"However, . . . the Malaysian bank sector does not

pack enough capital cushion to weather an earnings

shock. If cash flows for 1998 and 1999 are set to

zero, Malaysian banks show a $3.7 billion deficit in

capital," he said.

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971202011915015?=rel&template=related.htx&maxfieldsize=2851?evID=19971202011915018//?evTop=biz//?evTemp=Default.htx//?evMFS=3194//

...tightness in Platinum supplies.Miners are getting restless that government might forego the end of the year bonus,minor chart breakout,
seasonal low has arrived,backwardation happening,and Russian credit
turnmoil all points to a bottom for Platinum.Happy trading

Haggis, So what does Legend trade under in states

and what exchange? SDR'er, I can't believe it either,

an inverted yield, I don't follow the yield curves

are you sure? Or is this a secret we're not supposed

to see because the tlkg-heads don't mention it???

This vastly understates the problem as the percentage is much higher in Cape Breton:Canada

Tuesday, December 2, 1997

We are the fattest of the fat - 61% of Atlantic Canadians obese,
overweight - study
By LISA CLIFFORD / Health Reporter

There's no polite way to say it. Atlantic Canadians are fat.

A survey of 1,300 people across the country found 61 per cent of
people living in this region are overweight or obese. That's the highest
percentage in the country.

Arrival of gold on Saturday was hardly 100 kgs and some of the

gold mines in Australia and the South Africa were reported to

have bound up because of high cost and low gold prices.

Therefore, gold biscuit edged up by Rs 10 at Rs 4125 and

standard mint gold marked up by Rs 5 at Rs 4125 per 10 gram.

http://www.expressindia.com/fe/daily/19971202/33655173.html

Most over-used union saying in CB= "we have the right to put food on the table"----guess yer doin a good job of that!!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971202/boj_says_trying_to_i_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971202/markets_precious_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971201/chase_manhattan_with_1.html

SDRer__A ( Why no outcry? No angst? ... )

I reall do not know if this is the case here, but in the past the Fed Rate occasionally experienced a spike at month end. But is usually last only one or two days. The reason is that some banks are 'evening-up' there balance sheets, causing a very temporary imbalance. This is usually and immediately followed by the Fed Funds rate falling back to it normal level just before the spike.

Having said that, I DO see a slight tendency for rates heading into an inverted mode. But whether this indeed occurs... time will tell.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971201/pressure_on_china_yu_1.html

With reference to your 'Greenspan' of the north...and your bullishness on the Canadian $ and 1998 TSE & economy...it appears that Thiessen "admitted the bank was caught off guard in its predictions of how the Can $ would fare this year vs the US $.

That doesn't instill confidence... could his future predictions be any better....

I think he lucked in flying on the US coatail...the YoYo has still to prove himself..now that global turmoil have changed the rules of the game...

The CB's are beginning to lose the confidence game....Canada could be another nail to the coffin...

First the support ( Brazil, Canada, Mexico ) than the US $

http://www.thestar.com/editorial/money/index.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/12/02/international_news/koreabanks_1.html

test

Is anyone else having trouble posting to the site or connecting?

At the Gold show Dr. Kenneth Courtis gave a tightly worded well thought out talk on "The Economic Furture of the Pacific Region". He mentioned a lot of items that have been discussed here, and it is well worth getting hold of. I suspect that he has a write up on it. He is the First Vice President Deutsche Bank Capital Markets ( Tokyo ) - maybe someone can get a copy of it??

Anyway he mentioned two things that caught my attention:

1. He said that South Korea was caught in selling forward gold and that is one of the reasons the price of gold had fallen. ( I would love to find out more about this, including how selling forward and losing your shirt would cause gold to go down??? ) Unfortunately, there was no time for a question session or I would have asked him. Anyone know him ??? Or know the answer.

2. He also mention that he thought that this very,VERY serious problem with Japan and that it would be solved in the next few days. Japan would decide to use public funds to shore up the banking sector, deregulate, cut taxes, and generally reverse its present course ... . The Japanese MUST move NOW, there is NO time to spare.

As I stated, He felt very comfortable that they would do this within days. When they this move,the bull market would get back on track ... .


He feels that if they don't act soon, the problem will go golbal and it gets very very bad.

This gentleman was very impressive and seemed to be aware of the realitites of the asian problem. He would be a good reference if anyone has a contact to him or his work.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971202/japan_banks_1.html

Donald isn't interesting on how Reuters ALWAYS REPEATS 90% of its body text on gold, CB's selling, 1985 lows, $280's etc.

It sounds like the 'editor' is a ) lazy b ) unimaginative or c ) on the 'shorts payroll'.

Date: Tue Dec 02 1997 08:29
Donald__A ( Chase Manhattan leaving gold storage business. Comex has no comment ) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971201/chase_manhattan_with_1.html

Donald that makes two in the last several weeks. Something is definitely up. Why are they ( Swiss bank and Chase ) getting out of the business now?

Do I correctly recollect that the great Canadian govt.& Central bank sold all of their gold a while back. They have nothing ...zippo ...zero....left ....for the rainy day that will most certainly come sooner than expected?

Gold news:Asian Woes Cut Gold's Hopes;
Prices Fall to 12 1/2-Year Low

By AARON LUCCHETTI
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

The recent decline in Asian gold demand is eclipsing hopes that bargain
hunters will be able to stem the sharp drop in the battered metal's price.

Monday, gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile
Exchange fell for the fourth consecutive session, further illustrating that
physical buying from cost-conscious value investors and trinket-buyers has
been overwhelmed by problems in Asian economies and negative
world-wide sentiment toward the precious metal. In moderate trading,
December gold futures slipped $2.60 to $294.30 a troy ounce, a new 12
1/2-year low for the nearby future's closing price, after bouncing back
slightly from the day's low of $293.60 an ounce.

"It hurts that there hasn't been a surge of
Asian demand" to meet lower prices, says
Wiktor Bielski, senior metals analyst at
Deutsche Morgan Grenfell in London. In the
past, retail and institutional buying from
Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea had
propped prices up when gold got cheap.
"They've been buyers at price points and
they've always waited for the price to come [down] to them, but the fact
that they haven't bought at current levels has been bad for sentiment," Mr.
Bielski says.

The World Gold Council's latest report on 1997 gold consumption shows
that Southeast Asian demand for the metal has slipped 7% through
September. And since then, financial turmoil has spread and traders say
investment demand for gold has dropped sharply in Japan and South
Korea, two key gold consumers.

"Thailand imports its gold and pays for it in dollars, so domestic jewelry
consumption there is significantly off, and the same is true for Indonesia,
the Philippines and Malaysia," says Robert Godsell, chief executive officer
of Anglogold Ltd., a recently formed South African gold-mining concern.
"We've seen a very negative impact."

Analysts and traders agree that the Asian demand that once supported the
metal's price is now sorely missed by gold bulls. "We'd have a much better
standoff" between pessimistic hedge-fund traders and optimistic mining
companies and investors willing to buy gold at historically cheap levels,
says George Gero, a precious-metals trader at Prudential Securities Inc.

Instead, the resolute gold investors have taken a beating from speculative
hedge funds and trading houses that are placing bearish bets on the belief
that central banks will sharply reduce their gold holdings in coming years.
Staffed by a younger generation of managers who carry less allegiance to
the metal, central banks, among the largest holders of gold, have indeed
indicated an interest in selling or lending out their metal.

"The volume of central-bank lending has overwhelmed the impact of Asian
buying," says Deutsche Morgan Grenfell's Mr. Bielski. And with increased
bank lending and decreased Eastern buying interest, "the gold market has
changed dramatically in the past two months."

Central bankers looking to unload bullion aren't that new; official
institutions have been net sellers since the late 1980s, International
Monetary Fund data show. What has changed, explains Mr. Bielski, is a
perception that the new European central bank will hold significantly less
gold than European banks currently hold, perhaps as little as 10% of total
reserves. "For the last two years, the expectation was that gold would
back the Euro [currency] to the tune of about 40%," Mr. Bielski notes.

The zapping of Asian demand unfolded much more rapidly, helping
accelerate the most recent decline to sub-$300 levels, analysts say. When
currencies fell like dominoes during the summer, individual fortunes were
lost, the price to buy gold in local currencies skyrocketed, and hoarders
sold their metal to cover failing loans and obligations. "The selling has been
out of genuine economic distress," says George Milling-Stanley, manager
of gold market analysis for the World Gold Council in New York.

Further, the selling pressure has been triggered more quickly and
decisively because of measures over the past decade that have opened
gold-trading flows to many emerging economies, says Kevin A. Crisp,
vice president and commodities research analyst for J.P. Morgan & Co.
The "liberalization measures ... that have contributed to raising the levels of
gold demand by reducing impediments to cross-border flows of gold, and
eroding local price insulation may prove a two-edged sword," Mr. Crisp
said at an international gold symposium in Venezuela last week. "Recent
events have proved that gold flows can take place readily in both
directions."

Despite the falling demand in some key regions, international consumers
continue to buy gold in China, India and the Middle East, World Gold
Council demand-tracking estimates note. "India and China are the
cornerstones of Asian gold demand, and they're more or less unaffected,"
says Dinsa Mehta, managing director of global commodities for Chase
Manhattan Bank.

Meanwhile, nervous mining companies are showing increased interest in
hedging their production costs, even at historically low price levels, several
traders said. An increasingly popular practice in the gold industry, hedging
locks in a set price for the mining companies' gold production and is
thought to be more successful when gold prices are falling. "The mine
managers are human beings and they are sometimes swayed by market
prices," says Prudential's Mr. Gero. "It's a question of 'I'd rather sell
before the other guy.' "

In other commodity markets:

ENERGY: Crude-oil futures, pressured by bearish news from Iraq and
from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' bi-annual meeting
in Indonesia, fell sharply on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Over the
weekend, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to raise its oil-output
ceiling 10% to 27.5 million barrels a day, a higher level than had been
expected. But the more surprising news, traders said, came from the
United Nations, which was rumored to be considering allowing Iraq to
increase the amount of oil it is allowed to ship out in exchange for
humanitarian aid. The "oil-for-food" deal is up f

Date: Tue Dec 02 1997 08:49
PrivateInvestor ( nomercy & selby ) ID#225283:

Yes, canada basically has NO gold.

Ian McAvity ( at sf gold show ) , that even though he has been positive on Canada recently, He is now worried about it. In the last two weeks something has happened, he thinks that Canada's linkage with Asia may have been stronger than he and others have thought and that Canada may the next place to catch the Asian flu.

I think the reuters editor has lunch very often with the LBMA boys around the corner there in London town.

Could it be that the Swiss problem was really a Chase problem? Was Chase acting as the local agent of the Swiss? There seems to be some connection. Republic ended up with the business of both problems.

Have managed to CONSISTENTLY miss the CNBC flash ( if indeed they
have shown it ) , nor can I find a quote anywhere else. The Euro$
is being gently slapped tho...
http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

To our Australian neighbors: Those of us who live in areas prone
to the same kind of terror are certainly empathizing with you.
Good Luck. Take care.

Hey dude....I've also been having a hard time connecting-posting @ Kitco the last couple of days ( do you live in Cape Breton too ( ( grin thingy ) ) ...

Having given a great deal of thought to the subject I think the oil and gold tie of the future is in severe jeopardy if there is one. Because oil did well in the 30s does not mean that it will repeat in the 90s and beyond.

Oil producers and the oil industry would get slaughtered in a worldwide depression. Then what happens to the wonderful world of oil for gold. Gold will still be money. But oil is only one item and one that would not be in high demand in a world too broke to pay for virtually every aspect of the product and industry in all forms.

There would be a drought in the financial expansion sector. The largest engine of which is the United States. Clearly at the top of the heap in the debt department, both its citizens and its government are broke and await the repo man.

When it is time to pay the piper, and free credit and money out of thin air is not in vogue Jed Clampett will have to go back to the hills. Ellie and Jethro will have to get a job and granny will spend most of her time in the kitchen trying to figure out how to make potatoes taste different 3 times a day, seven days a week.

Think I'll stick to the casino~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

gold 295.15 up 1.55
silver 5.34 up .01
platinum 387.00 up 1.30
palladium 207.5 up 2.80

I only mention this because I am not sure anyone on this bb has seen this much green in many a day. Enjoy it. Revel in it. And have a good day.

Date: Tue Dec 02 1997 08:53
Donald__A

Good catch Donald, you are probably right.

http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/1997/09/F.RU.970923151403.html

Thanks for your response.

As I stated the information that I posted IS public domain. You can check this out via Todd Partners, Eyres Reed, DD Tolhurst, JB Weir. Project is there, the management is a bit...? The project is there.

The Aussies have got short memories....... they really do not appreciate what they have got.

If anyone is interested I can FAX technical literature to them over the next week or so...I do not have scanner.

I am Scots, upon request I will forward my CV.... you are welcome to check me out.

email: gabbro@gold.net.au

Off to Perth for a few days, back on Sunday.

Aye,
Haggis

Looks like the " powers that be" have primed the pump on the PR and disinformation machine. I will bet you an ounce of gold that we see volumes in the widely read press that gold is dead and dieing.

My god ...my wife has been receiving clippings in the mail from her mother with headlines such as "fools gold" etc.

She wonders why I have been buying back into gold after not touching it for nearly twenty years...surely I must be mad...how could I have sold of all of my equities...why would I say that anyone in the market at this stage is a F in idiot...her "equities have performed well" for her and she is "not going to part with any of them."

People like that save the reuters press clippings and actually think because it is in black and white that it must be the truth.

I got Ken's Nov 8 paper on which his talk Dec 1 talked was based, but the updates are worth trying to get. I am sure it can be gotten, I suspect that if someone knows his office or ... and e-mail trail, he would be happy to get us a copy. BBL

http://www.pathfinder.com/time/magazine/1997/int/971110/business.herbert_hoove.html

No I do not live in C.B. but I have been contemplating flying up and taking a look at some of those ocean front estates. Any folks in your area looking to get out of dodge...my wife grew up in Canada and has happy memoiries...I have been thinking of buying a summer spot near you.

Barron published holdings of CB's updated to reflect Aussies sale of 167 tons. In that table they showed Canada as having 3.1 mil. oz in gold reserves. ( close to 95 tons )

For general info. here's Barron data :

Troy ounces ( millions )

US 261.7

Canada 3.1

Australia 2.6

Japan 24.2

Austria 10.1

Belgium 15.3

Denmark 1.7

France 81.9

Germany 95.2

Greece 3.5

Italy 66.7

Netherlands 27.1

Norway 1.2

Portugal 14.0

Spain 15.6

Sweden 4.8

Switzerland 83.3

UK 18.4

Sub total 1,099.5

They quoted their sources being:

CPM Group

IMF

If FED Funds were at 6% when K. Hayes did her last credit report
at Monday's close ( it just flashed on the screen, she made no
mention of it ) then--if it's back to 5 1/2% ( which I don't know )
the CRITICAL point is: did it jump WAY up overnight...this usually
signals a bank in BIG trouble...where can we look to discover that?

In times past, they ( THds ) would mention it, but I don't think in
today's market climate they would dare...

To blame one country for this mess is pathetic and self-serving. This global problem is the fault of people everywhere that have had a voice but did not use it. Figment standard currency is the drug of choice for the politician and the banker. The junkies are the people who want to live in a world where debt is never repaid.

Put the dealers in jail and make the junkies go through cold turkey.

Quick Ted...post your picture again...permission granted for one more post... ( grinthing )

"Staffed by a younger generation of managers who carry less allegiance to the metal, central banks, among the largest holders of gold, have indeed indicated an interest in selling or lending out their metal."

WHAT you are about to witness is these poor, ignorant children getting a severe case of road rash on the economic road of history.

Gold is dead? Horsepucky!

All the philosophical, post graduate economic mumbo jumbo is about to get a real lesson, from the real world and the this is not the Wall Street we are talking about. It is the mean street.

Does Arden, or anyone else know what "stopped" means on the Comex notice of deliveries in gold? There is a list of brokerages with the number of contracts "stopped" by their names. Thanks for any help.

I think Ian is correct. In the early to mid eighties I was looking at buying a bit of waterfront real estate in BC and Hong Kong money over bid the price on evert deal.

I think the Canadians have already contracted the Asian Contagen but they are to sick to know it.Soon all of the cousins money from Hong Kongs business etc. will completely stop flowing into Canada and things could slow down ( to a dead stop ) overnight.Not to mention that the Asians will no longer be using Canada or the US as raw materials colonies.

I went to school with some of these "kids" that are now making decisions at CB's, brokerage houses, mutual funds etc, and many of them did not have a clue then...nor do they now.

They advanced through the system on the back of the bull and playing politics...now they are running with the big Dawgs and playing with other peoples money...the problem is all the world will pay for their real world - post graduate tuition on the lifetime instalment plan.

Date: Tue Dec 02 1997 09:19
tolerant1 ( Japan the Culprit? ) ID#31868:

Tolerant1, I nor do I think anyone else ( Ken ... ) are blaming this problem solely on Japan. What is being said, is that Japan is the 2nd largest economy and the anchor in Asia. Japan is the next CRITICAL link in the chain. If Japan fails to hold Asia together, then instantly the problem is out of control. IMHO.

Here we go, boys and girls! Strap on your seat belts!

I did not mean to suggest that Kitco folks were saying that. I meant the media and the US government.

I sure hope the US decision makers are buying gold with both hands during the current fire sale. I would like to see US holding goes up a bit before this is over.

I am surprised to see the Italians have so much.

PrivateInvestor: Buy my oceanfront estate ( It's FOR SALE ) E-mail me if you want the pictures ( online ) ...BillD: No cracks from the peanut gallery!! On a more serious note am now off for the weekly shopping trip and a stopover @ the local casino....BBL dudes~~~~~~~~~~~~~~18 red + GO GOLD ( up for a damn change )

Ted...mail

TIME -- BUSINESS SECTION -- BY KENNETH COURTIS

( Kenneth Courtis is chief economist and strategist for the Deutsche Bank Group in the Asia-Pacific )

.............HERBERT HOOVER IN TOKYO

.............SURE, SOUTHEAST ASIA HAS PROBLEMS,

.............BUT IF JAPAN'S SLIDE CONTINUES, WATCH OUT!

The combined effect of sliding export profits, more bad debt, higher taxes, falling growth and weakening sentiment has been to put the Japanese stock and real estate markets under renewed pressure. Commercial property values have fallen 70% since the 1990 peak and 5% in the past six months. The Nikkei has plunged to the critical level of 16,000 to 17,000, at which the banks no longer meet their international capital requirements. Should the market drop any lower--and with no major change in policy, that is likely -- Japanese banks will have to liquidate international assets. Much of these are in the U.S. Treasury market. That could destabilize world bond markets just as growth in the U.S. and Europe early next year leaves authorities little choice but to raise interest rates.

In light of this Breaking News, a re-read of the ORACLEs prophetic observations and ultimate consequences for the U.S.

T-Bond market and GOLD WILL PROVE VERY PRODUCTIVE - see series JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & A HARDSPOT:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html

I do blame Japan for allowing a lot of hanky panky to go on within their banks and exchanges and they lead the rest of the world to think that these institutions play by the same rules as other throughout the world .....that has never been true...The Japanese have always rigged their markets and fixed the rules ....the problem now is the world wide market place has grabbed them by the throat and will not let go....the Japanese credit market may well implode and if it does watch out world...the BOJ should have been printing money along time ago and playing hard and fast in the repo market...they just don't get it!! They tried to import economic growth via the tigers....guess what those CATS HAVE CLAWS!!! The tamer may get eaten by the tigers.

Mary ann Aden spoke at the gold show.

She sees the Dow at a major top, the dollar heading lower, gold turning. She present lots of excellant charts and indicators to back up her assertions. I buy her story.

Under the 7500 level and holding would confirm the bear market. Once it does this , its next stop will be 5500 or lower.

Gold must hold support at 285. It needs to get above $320, but to become bullish it must get above $345. The current down trend could end any day or continue for months.

Silver needs to stay above 4.83 and she sees it going to $7.00 and above. She is bullish on silver.

for gold shares the barron's gold index needs to get above 615 to be bullish.

The Us dollar has turned down ( Aug 6th top ) . It could go to 110 swiss francs.

Swiss franc is her choice in currencies then Dmark, the French Franc. Bearish on Canadian dollar.


She sees long term rates heading down and short term rates heading up. She is bullish on bonds for the next several months. Longer term I don't think she is bullish. The bond needs to hold the 6.37 level.

REMEMBER I AM JUST TRYING TO BE THE REPORTER. This information is meant to help, check on your own before you make any key decions - the reporter could have made a mistake etc.

Did you receive my email packet...Looking forward to checking out the area.
Aloha

Mark Skousen and James Dines are bullish on the market at this time.

Mark is 100% vested in stocks and bonds. He sees gold rising in 98.

Dines ... you know Dines.

And that is probably enough about the gold show. If something pops to mind later as I review the material I will post it. If you want me check for something, I will try, otherwise goodbye.

Hong Kong analyst Milhouse shares his latest economic and financial wisdom. Again, he draws special attention to the significance of Money Supply. Correctly he observes, If confidence in financial assets and government controlled currencies was to significantly reduce, then the total gold reserves of all Central Banks ( worth 320 billion dollars at current gold prices ) could be absorbed in an instant by private investors.

Of monumental import is his assertion that ...it must be
remembered that there are 3.8 billion ounces of gold in the world
and the supply is increasing by ( ONLY ) 1.75% each year ( probably less for the next few years due to mine closures ) , WHEREAS there are 5,300 billion US dollars in the world, and the supply is increasing by 9% each year. The end result is obvious.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse1130.html

Thank you for your gold show posts.....I was hoping to have gone in person...I really appreciate your straight forward reporting of what went on.

Any word on Japanese deregulation of the Financial services markets....which US players will be joining the mix.

I do respect the Aden sisters and agree with what MaryAnn projects.
Thank you very much for the report. I'll ( almost ) forgive you
for not hitting the FF 6.00 post. OK, I forgive you. sigh...

The doom and gloom of the present gold market is reminiscent of 1984-1985, when Business Week magazine had a coffin on the cover with the headline "Mining Is Dead". From that time to the very recent present, the mining industry experienced what is probably the greatest exploration boom in history.
Remember that gold was at $285 then. Back then, the smart investors were taking the contrarian view end buying gold. XAU bottomed at 60 and short time later topped at 155.

Private Investor,

I am developing a "Dumb Wives" indicator. Over the past year, about a half dozen posters have reported here that their silly wives insisted on staying with their Dow and S&P stocks. Often these wives' stock preferences were taken as contrary indicators. A glance at the XAU vs. the S&P tells the tale. As I mentioned here in August, there might be a short-covering rally gold and there might be one again soon. That doesn't mean the Dow and the S&P stocks are poor investments here, especially if one buys companies that will benefit from lower import prices and depend only on the US economy for profits. Every bull market comes to an end, of course, but I'm sticking with my "Dumb Wives" indicator for now. Wish I'd cottoned on to it sooner.

Considering the traditional investments of these financial behemoths, we may quite imagine them sitting all day long watching over THEIR INVESTMENTS on this Intra-Day chart page - scroll to the bottom:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/intra-day.html

Business cycles have been busted and good times will go on forever!

BREAKING STORIES:

PM Howard forced to consider election as Harradine upsets Wik plan
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971203/national/national1.html
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971203/news/news1.html

Hedging looks the key to gold survival
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971203/market/markets4.html

Concern over Japanese Life Companies
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971203/world/world2.html

Korea toes IMF line as banks shut - IMF opposes regulated currency trading
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971203/world/world1.html

South Korean wrangle anchors four year low
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971203/market/markets2.html

IMF quietly hijacks separate Asian rescue fund
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971203/world/world4.html

Biscuit Maker profits may scrape bottom of barrel
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971203/invest/invest3.html

$A at low, bond yields up
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971203/business/business8.html

IN REVIEW:

High Interest Rates & Unemployment to result from IMF $88bn deal
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971202/world/world4.html

Deficit accelerates plunge in $A - first sign on Asian Crisis
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971202/market/markets2.html

Australian Treasury's secret ban on Japanese banks
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971201/news/news1.html

Russian Nukes for sale
http://www.forbes.com/Forbes/97/1201/6012264a.htm

China's bank bubble due to burst: experts
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971128/world/world1.html

A quick history lesson shows that booms do bust - The Maverick
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/market/markets2.html


BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/blizard.htm

From one of our Tokyo "Operatives," JAPANESE GOLD PURCHASES DOUBLE since the Yamaichi Fiasco!

Date: Tue Dec 02 1997 11:07
vronsky ( JAPANESE GOLD PURCHASES DOUBLE ) ID#427357:

I think that getting that kind of information is very important. I heard and hear a lot of talk about aisa NOT buying gold and therefore it obviously isn't a good investment.

Do any of you think the Asians in general and the Japanese in particular are offended that we expect them to not sell treasuries in order to protect our markets and we don't seem to give a hoot about theirs? I bet they really love to see Bill Clinton on T.V. state that the Asian flu will not impact the U.S.A.

Bill, can't you feel their pain?: )

Steve

Date: Mon Dec 01 1997 11:45
The Fat Lady Has Been Singing But Nobody Wants To Hear )

Steady: Re your comments below. I was mentioning the rumour about 6 months ago here on Kitco that gold could get down to US$170. From various contacts. Hope it doesn't. But if this competitive currency devalution continues, I see no reason why it couldn't. One of the new "themes" emerging amongst the letter writers, above the deflation theme, is the theme of "income", and "yields". Retirees & investors will resign themselves to no growth in their investments, & turn their attention solidly at reliable income. This may mean owning 2 bedroom homes ( bungalows ) at approximately 8% yield. This is a lot better than 4% in the bank ( or less ) . Would like your comments on whether "high" yielding residential property like this be likely to increase in capital value, or drop in the coming depression ( at those yield levels ) . Bonds could do well in a falling interest rate environment, but rates spike upwards to prevent local currency freefall. I suspect they will. That in turn will kill everything.

Down at a client's diesel mechanic workshop today, the mechanic's mood for buying shares has been dampened substantially. You know the story about the the lift operator/shoe cleaner making share recommendations. Not so gung ho about shares these days!!
They are now selling imported diesel pumps, rather than repairing them ( manufacturing now being hit in Australia ) . When I said our currency could keep falling, they said that was no good, because they would then lose profit on those import purchases.

By the way, talking about fat ladies singing, the top UK TV show "Two fat ladies" was an excellent cooking show. Totally off the wall. Very politically INcorrect. For example, "a bit more fat in the pan, why not" etc. Just the shot for the non-cholesterol averse.
------------------------------------------------------------

ID#285233: Steve-Perth, I think that the fat lady has been singing pretty laud but we must all be deaf. I am convinced that the gold price is indicating a severe deflation, so the gold buying opportunity is on the horizon. I would not touch the metal yet, since I think we are going under $200. There is a possibility that we will test 1977 low of $103 under this scenario. Just imagine how far the paper will fall once the deflationary collapse starts. Those people have no idea what is in the wings. The world is under tens of trillions of $$$ of debt. This amount of debt is inherently deflationary. Once the deflation sets in,no printing presses will reverse it until it runs its course.

GLDI call options - no one will write them!!! I have been trying to buy call options on the Johannesburg Gold Index since Wednesday last week. I have bid at premiums of up to 60% and no one will write them or sell them - I have tried every strike price in the book. It can't be long now!

Here is some interesting data from the annual credit card marketers conference which was recently held.

How card mailings Pile Up ( credit card solicitations in millions ) 1991=996, 1992=918, 1993=1500,1993=2400,1995=2698,1996=2383

the Balance Transfer Boom ( in billions ) :
Cash advances Balance Transfers
1992 $36 $3

1993 51.3 12.3

1994 79.6 25.3

1995 113.4 31

1996 132.5 16

5 YEARS OF U.S. CHARGE VOLUME TOTALS:

DOLLAR VOL. % UP TRANSACTIONS
400.8 12 4.97
474.4 18 5.60
581.4 23 6.56
701.2 20.6 9.09
798.3 14 10.36

TOP 10 Issuers' Total Outstanding $235,946,784,715
Total General-Purpose Card Market $411,700,000,000 ON 1/1/97

Source Card Industry Directory

11 years of Consumer Credit Growth ( outstanding in Billions ) all consumer lending source Fed reserve Board

1986= $581.7
1987= $618.8
1988= $673.3
1989= $728.9
1990= $748.5
1991= $742.1
1992= $756.9
1993= $790.1
1994= $902.0
1995= $1,131.9
1996= $1,193.2

Looks like US Consumer has doubled their debt load in the last ten years ....Credit card marketers were projecting record BK filings next ....this was well before the Asian Outbreak. ( breakdown )

Kia Motors, "bankrupt" Korean motor company under receivership, is to flood US with more cars ( on the cheap ) . Down go US wages? or local sales?
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971202/business/stories/kia_1.html

You know, given todays supply/demand fundamentals and short positions, if someone like Soros or the Rothschilds were to spend a $billion or two buying up physical gold, they could start the panic that would enrich their holdings exponentially.

If any of you talk to them today let them know this would be a good move.

Steve

Hey Missing...according to ANOTHER ( if you believe his stuff ) ...someone has already cornered the Gold market as you suggested....it is now a waiting game...hum....

Okay I listen to Rush, don't make fun of me. He is entertaining at times, but yesterday he started discussing the deflation scenario. Anyway rush said that deflation could be cured in one day by turning on the printing presses. What he didn't discuss was how you would get this mountain of paper into the economy quickly. Anyway my point is that many of rush's listeners now think that deflation would never be a problem. Talk about spin. geez!

Who lost how much?
Delays spur suit against E*Trade
http://www.news.com/News/Item/0%2C4%2C16906%2C00.html

Gov't bond and umployment chart:
http://207.69.135.71/charts/b648.gif

Swing chart updated:
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Swingle.gif

Adv/dec chart
http://www.decisionpoint.com/HistCharts/HistChartMenu.html

The Japanese may be slow to act but they are not stupid...they understand that if they sold off US treasuries en mass it would further hurt the world economies....they have been looking for back doors...trading US BONDS for Oil etc...

This just in from the rumor mill:

A friend of mine that owns a security/transportation company that handles some of the Saudi Royal Families ground transportation needs while in the US ( Usually two month each summer ) claims :

"that Saudi Arabia's Prince Alwaleed bin Talal bin Abdul Aziz al Saud has been shorting gold for a while"

I would like to get a call in to Mustafa al Hejailan to get confirmation...but I doubt if they would respond.

Hey anyone out there see any action from Citicorp that would confirm such rumors the Prince owns Citicorp ( at last glimpse he was largest share holder.

He had taken a bad haircut on Citicorp earlier to the tune off $639 million but he has enough cash to run it right back up all by himself.

He could also run the gold market up or down if he felt so inclined.

Has anyone got any information on this neww IPO. Also, any connection with George Soros?

Do you have any sources in Riyadh, or Geneva that could check out the prince rumor?

Why would the Arabs want U.S. Treasuries? They are probably the least trusting culture of paper money there is. There are still credible barter economies there.

Steve

The threat of CB selling is beginning to fade. This threat is a poker bluff that many of us have already called.

The Bank of Italy stated through a spokesman Monday that it "has not sold gold and does not intend to do so. The BOI believes gold must ( ie MUST MUST ) be part of its official reserves."

prisbrian: George Soros is part of Apex, as is his son. The ticker symbol is SIL on the Amex. SmartMoney did an article which was critical of the IPO. I believe it was last week around Tuesday, right before the IPO was made. I posted some stuff about it then. Find the SEC website and look up the IPO papers, they are quite informative. I don't have my URLs ( am at work ) . Soros bought shares at 2.90 and the IPO was made at $11. That should tell you something.

OK, why can't deflation be cured by turning on the printing press? Don't governments in general love to print money? Hyperinflation is much more of a possibility, as government / Fed measures to stoke a dying economy are implemented repeatedly like, say, defibrillation on a heart attack victim, or heavy chemotherapy on a cancer victim. The rationale is, This treatment may be risky, but the alternative is definitely fatal.

From the Weekend FT, 11/29-11/30
"BEYOND THE GBP 13,000 BARRIER:
My reported a fortnight ago on the dinner at which three businessmen
spent GBP 13,000.20 on themselves and six bottles of wine back to
1945 vintage, a 1949 Krug, 1961 Latour and 1967 d'Yquem--these men
had taste."

Are we at a top, or what?

The US and UK announce today that they will put up paper US$ 25 mil and UK# 1 Mil over 3 years to compensate deserving HOLOCAUST victims.

Can anyone answer this: Why is the US putting up paper $ and not selling their GOLD, while forcing others including the Swiss to sell their GOLD to compensate said deserving HOLOCAUST victims?

If you can't answer, see my post Dec 01 at 23:39

They don't want them, they swap them into SDR's, to which their
currency is pegged. Maybe they get the interest strip as a
'Thank you' for their trouble, and a double counting on the
principal strip which is passed to the IMF. So, the bonds
'disappear', altho there is a double counting of the principal
strip ( but it is so deeply buried, who would know...or care? )

Just conjecture. Being working out 'swap lines' on the
treasuries for awhile...

TZADEAK+: The answer to your question is simple. The US is not dumb.

TZADEAK+: I just read your post of DEC/01/97 @ 23:59.

Good Post.

Apex is for real. It has a world class silver/zinc deposit in Bolivia which will be mined for the next hundred years or so, together with scores of exploration bets, some located close by. Whether it is a good deal for the investor or not I do not know as I have not reviewed the prospectus. My suspicion is that it was priced to provide a healthy return, but came out under poor market conditions. It has some of the best exploration talent available, definitely not the fluff stuff that typically comes out of Canada.

Gene Inger Predictions:

Dow over 8,000;
..........new highs no doubt for S&P coming;
.........................................while facts haven't changed.

What about a drop into mid-December? Well, my opinion is that's still coming, but as it will be a bullish pause for the moment, barring news of shock capability. Complete Market Forecast at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger120297.html

LSteve/All

The only thing that holds today's debt pyramid together is confidence. Pure and simple.

It is this amorphous state of mind that creates credit and therefore the fictional money that is driving this investment bubble.

The real danger to the monetary system comes when the outstanding credit far outweighs the assets that back it up.

It is exactly at this point ( and I believe that is where we are today ) when a deflationary crisis or perhaps collapse may occur.

It WILL happen once the CONFIDENCE that supports it decreases and finally evaporates. This psychological change in the social and investment mood of the people from expansion to retrenchement will be the initial signal that debt retirement has begun.

The retirement of this debt will cause severe contraction in money supply, which is defined as deflation.

Once the psychological change takes place no government presses can be fast enough to provide enough timely liquidity to prevent this phenomenon. It has to run its course!!

Remember that this historical debt in $ trillions must and will be retired through deflation. It is primarily the CBs that have played a willing culprit in providing this credit, whether to the government or "investors" and let this bubble expand exponentially. Once the bubble bursts it will not be a pretty world for a while. The deflationary collapse will wash all the debt/sins and we will be ready for another 60-70 years.

Mr Rush has influence over millions of people's thinking. Therefore, you do not expect him to be totally free to say what he wants, even if he understood the situation, do you??

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Read carefully the words of Edward deVere, 17th Earl of Oxford ( aka William Shakespeare ) . It so much applies to us today!!!

There is a tide in the affairs of men

Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune:

Omitted, all their voyage of their life

Is bound in shallows and in miseries.

On such a full sea are we now afloat,

And we must take the current when it serves

Or loose our ventures.

IMHO the way to prevent deflation consists of the single thing that a Democratic president is least likely to do. All they have to do is cut taxes.

For Zadeek

You said that you believe that you are correct in that

the USA is the World's number One gold producer.

You said that you heard a famous geologist talk

about all the coming problems in south African gold

deposits and that "he ought to know".

Im sorry - the US is not the number one producer

South Africa is.

I agree that the famous geologist "ought to know" -

problem is that he didnt. I believe RSA production

bottomed in 1995 and has been going up since then.

I believe that if you actually checked some numbers

you would find that South Africa produces MORE gold

than the US and Canada combined ( 1995 figures ) .

You are really screwed up old buddy and should do

some homework IMHO.

As far as I am concerned You fail this course.

If I have to reply further to correct your stream

of silly comments, I will send you a bill to

cover my misguided efforts to educate you.

I will ignore any future "predictions" you may wish

to make since you are so poorly informed.

I noticed that "tantalus" likes your stuff.

Maybe he will subscribe to your newsletter.

I really like that tax cut idea! If things got really bad and Clinton started to feel our pain and it was in his political best interest we would have tax cut. Lot of "ifs".

What is it about reaching your 40s that heightens one's appreciation of poetry? That Shakepeare quote is great. I, for one, have trouble with the implication that Rush Limbaugh in general tempers his comments due to his concern over popular response, e. g., predicting inflation when he knows deflation is coming. The man has his faults and flaws, and they are fair game, but it does not strike me that the referenced sort of dissimulation is at all his style.

Why is it that money could not be printed "fast enough"? Isn't three months, six months "fast enough"? The point is, ultimately, longer term, hyperinflation seems more likely. Nevertheless, I am certainly not familiar with all the issues here.

Relating this to gold and gold stocks, let's continue to be concerned about the price of gold relative to goods and services, i.e., the "one ounce for a good suit" mode. From that perspective, won't the ability of gold to preserve its value or grow in value during inflation or deflation be linked to factors other than the deflation / inflation itself? Of course I find the deflation/inflation topic interesting and very appropriate for this forum, but nevertheless, shouldn't we as gold investors be more concerned over the likelihood of the emergence of those other factors, not the inflation or deflation per se?

John Disney - ADR symbol WARSY,
shows - no bid - no offer - no volume. It
does show a last trade of 4 3/8. Is that the
Western Areas that you referred to?
Thanks

In 1987 the world got really mad at the idiots who were practicing the portfolio insurance concept. In a nut shell it was dynamic hedging. The more stocks went down the more stocks they sold. A moving stop order so to speak. The reason this has merit to gold right now is that I have noticed a lot of companies using puts to hedge their exposure to gold going down. They do this by calling up a bank and saying hey I want to buy some puts and the bank says no problem I will sell them to you. The bank pockets the cash and then starts using portfolio insurance. The more gold goes down the more they sell gold to hedge their short put positions. This causes gold to keep going down till a dealer defaults or a company goes under ( i.e. Pegasus gold ) . Just like the crash in equities it is caused by leverage and a mechanical approach to investing. The more the hedged contract goes up or down the more we buy or sell. I look for a dealer to go out of business soon and the
company that thought they were hedged to find out they were only hedged against capital gains.

Knock....Knock

Who's there? I told you I didn't want to be interrupted!

I'm terribly sorry Mr. Greenspan, but I think you would want to know. It's Mr. Hashimoto and he has some bills he wants paid.

Stall him...

I tried that sir...but he says he wants dollars now! He says it has to be dollars.

Tell him dollars are going to become weak and offer him a better interest rate on his bills.

Okay, sir.

Knock, Knock...

I'm sorry sir, but he says he must have dollars.

Tell him he is irrationally exuberant for dollars.

Considering the traditional investments of these financial behemoths, we may quite imagine them sitting all day long watching over THEIR INVESTMENTS on this Intra-Day chart page - scroll to the bottom:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/intra-day.html

yes, Yes, YES!
What a delightful surprize!

[ Business | US Market | Industry | IPO | S&P | International | PRNews | BizWire | Finance Home ]


Tuesday December 2, 8:21 am Eastern Time

Japan banks' sales of US Treasuries seen unlikely

By Jose Paulo Vicente

NEW YORK, Dec 2 ( Reuters ) - Japanese banks battling a painful cash crunch will probably not dip into their huge U.S.
Treasuries hoard to make ends meet, Federal Reserve sources said.

``Anything is possible, but I think U.S. government securities are an attractive investment and I can't imagine that they would
dump all of their holdings,'' a Fed source, who asked not to be named, told Reuters.

``And if they sold some of the holdings, I think ... that wouldn't necessarily mean much, if any, impact on asset prices,'' the
source added.

The U.S. Treasury market has been flooded by rumors that Japanese banks would dump part of their Treasury holdings to
strengthen their cash positions as Japan's banking system endures a severe liquidity crisis.

The Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) and private Japanese investors are estimated to hold some $321 billion worth of U.S. Treasuries,
including bills, notes and bonds.

That amount accounts for 25 percent of the outstanding U.S. Treasury securities held by foreigners.

Recent data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed the amount of marketable government securities held
in custody by the Fed banks for foreign official and international accounts has dropped by some $29.3 billion over the last six
months, to a current level of $617.8 billion.

But three Fed sources interviewed by Reuters said U.S. Treasuries appear to have been a profitable investment for Japan's
banks. They said the yields paid by those securities were expected to remain attractive to Japanese investors.

Also, they said Japanese players would likely shoot themselves in the foot it they looked to build cash by dumping bonds,
since a jittery market could send prices spiraling lower, cutting into the banks' hefty paper profits.

Two Fed sources confirmed the existence of a recently reported agreement between the New York Fed and the BOJ through
which the U.S. central bank could assist Japanese banks in raising funds.

They declined to say whether the Fed would buy securities from Japanese banks or simply lend them cash if they requested it.

However, the sources said there are several mechanisms through which some funds could be funneled to those institutions if
necessary.

For example, Japanese banks could borrow money and use their Treasury holdings as collateral instead of selling the
securities, the sources said.

Fed sources praised the way Japan's Ministry of Finance ( MOF ) and the BOJ have handled the banking crisis so far,
applauding their refusal to provide aid to sick banks in an attempt to keep them artificially alive.

The recent collapse of Japan's fourth largest brokerage, Yamaichi Securities, combined with the closure of two other large
financial firms, Sanyo Securities and Hokkaido Takushoku bank, was seen as evidence that Japan might be willing to root out
systemic problems plaguing Japanese banks.

``I think some of the action that Japan is taking in terms of letting some of the banks and financial institutions quit ... is a
positive development,'' said another Fed source, who also asked not to be named.

Japan's banks have been burdened by bad debt since the country's real estate and stock markets crashed in early 1990. Those
problems were exacerbated by the eruption of a currency crisis across Southeast Asia this summer, analysts said.

The ensuing chaos roiled regional financial markets and forced many governments, including those in Thailand and Indonesia,
to effectively devalue their currencies.

What happens next in Asia will depend largely on how Japan and its neighbors resolve painful banking sector concerns.

``The problem throughout Asia has been a banking sector problem,'' said another Fed source.

Wall Street analysts said the performance of Japan's key financial indicators, including the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index,
are likely to signal what awaits Japanese banks.

Fed sources interviewed for this article said the U.S. central bank remains alert, closely monitoring developments in the
region.


Related News Categories: US Market News, currency, international, options



Help

According to the Treasury, the U.S. "Public Debt" has gone up by $US 27 Billion over the weekend. The reported debt as of December 1 is now
$US 5,489,774,551,535.81

That leaves $US 10.26 Billion to go before the debt ceiling is hit ( again ) . Check out http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

You cannot dispute the fact that RSA has gone from about 60% of world gold production to about 25%, or so today and even with offical numbers the US is a close second ,and you surely agree of the great potential in Canada for big Gold production as if and when it is needed.

Who really knows exactly how much gold is being produced in the US?
Who really believes any of the official figures that come out of US GOV?
When almost all the figures are constantly and officially revised, re-revised, seasonally adjusted, and unofficially cooked-up.

For Sweat

That is the very western Areas - However in the coolest move for a

long time Anglo_American just took it away from everybody for practically

nothing = They bought it from JCI along with joel - more reserves than

ABX for practically zip. It will become part of their new gold

company in the Vaal Reef vehicle. WA shareholders will receive Vaal

stock I believe to replace it - Same for West Deeps, fregold, southvaal, some others. This one company will have more gold production than the USA. ( Zaddeek please note ) - not to mention control of amplats ( half the World's platinum ?? plus/minus ) , a huge coal operation, manganese,large de beers diamond holding etc etc. ...

KNOCK KNOCK

Now What?!

Forgive me Mr. Greenspan, but Prime Minister Hashimoto insists, and I quote: "HE WHAT'S HIS DOLLARS NOW, CASH ON THE BARREL HEAD, ... OR ELSE!"

Would you please tell the little-squirt, that if he CONTINUES to pester me, I'll SICK 'ol Rubin on 'em, and we'll SHORT THE DAMN NIKKEI! Now LET ME WORK... I am creating my next snow-job...errr, ahhh, SPEECH for Congress!

For Zadeek

I GET IT - you are LITTLE ZADEEK - your daddy is away and you are

playing with his computer.

Hong Kong analyst Milhouse shares his latest economic and financial wisdom. Again, he draws special attention to the significance of Money Supply. Correctly he observes, If confidence in financial assets and government controlled currencies was to significantly reduce, then the total gold reserves of all Central Banks ( worth 320 billion dollars at current gold prices ) could be absorbed in an instant by private investors.

Of monumental import is his assertion that ...it must be
remembered that there are 3.8 billion ounces of gold in the world
and the supply is increasing by ( ONLY ) 1.75% each year ( probably less for the next few years due to mine closures ) , WHEREAS there are 5,300 billion US dollars in the world, and the supply is increasing by 9% each year. The end result is obvious.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse1130.html

During his last visit to the US, Hashimoto made

a comment that he just might buy Gold!!

At the time, he was a little peeved with his

treatment by the administration.

For some of you true experts out there:

What would happen if Japan started selling

Treasuries and buying Gold in large amounts?

Couldn't he sink the US economy by doing this?

And, of course, wouldn't he destroy his very best

market for the goods that he produces?

To all

Got a crazy idea - how about Japan replaces all those

US bonds with South African rand denominated bonds

that pay 15 % instead of only 7 or so. 15 per cent

Government bonds from the WORLDS LARGEST GOLD and

PLATINUM supplier - Moreover the rand is undervalued on

a PPP basis.

That little number should ensure a nuclear response

from the USA and REALLY close down all the mines and

everything else. The reason for the strike would be

to prevent zadeeks "tribal war" from happening. "Had to

take out that country Maam to prevent an ugly WAR"

Fred C Dobbs ( Bogart ) said it all in "Treasure of Sierra Madre" -

"Gold looks best on the fingers and necks of swell dames"

See the Movie and begin to understand GOLD ---

The cash that leaves the treasury via extinguished T-Bills will most probably be replaced by cash from the treasury's sale of new T-Bills that have substantially enhanced coupons. These new bills will be bought by primarily American buyers utilizing proceeds from sales of securities.
The buyers will opt for high-rate T-Bills rather than questionable yields from "soon to be viewed as" speculative stocks.
Hashimoto's banks need cash more than gold right now. But rest assured they like gold too. Cash flow first...equity next.

Yo! JOHN

Yes indeed, women do love gold jewelry. Thatis
why those grundgy old prospectors work so hard
to mine the shiny yellow metal.

All so that they can be the one to buy that
gold necklace or gold ring for some beautiful
dame. Since it's so cheap this Christmas, I think
that I may invest myself in order to receive the
eternal gratitude of some beautiful dame.

John Disney RE: Rand denominated SA Bonds

I really like that idea. That would send all the
US dollars in Japan back home to the USA. Do you
think that this might lead to inflation? I am
deep under water in all of my gold holdings, so
this prospect does indeed look good.

Clinton said that he thinks that Japan can lead the
other Asian countries out of the present financial
crisis by running a trade deficit with them.

What do you think? Will Japan do that? NOT...

The US would not use a nuclear bomb when all that would be potentialy needed would be a very small match indeed to light up a tribal war in RSA and thus deprive others from most RSA Gold.

Let's try to keep in on gold and/or economic issues, OK. Do you have a contribution to make with regard to same? If so, please post. Thank you.

One Ship sails East,
One Ship sails West;
By the self-same wind that blows.

For it is not the gale,
but the set of the sail ..
that determines which way they go!

??

I don't know what AG is going to say. I don't know what's going to happen in the Middle East or Far East. But watch metals/crude tomorrow!

I must respectfully with your assesment of the future of oil. One thing there will be a great demand for is fuel for farm equipment. In the 1930's the average farmer did his work with the horse. This changed in great part after 1936. The american war effort was based upon the productivity of the farmers. As it is right now farmers income is based on the margin and that margin is very slim. A drop of 50% in the price of wheat would put the majority of current farmers out of business. In two years the price of wheat would be unbelieavable. Sure there would be corporate farms but there is a lot missing from these arangements. There will be a demand for oil from the energy sector. People are not going to go without their refrigerators and air conditioners. If there is a collapse of the worldwide economic structure no one will be left standing. People will look for leadership. And people will be willing to trade what is left of their freedoms for some stability and safety. The new one world economic system that will someday engulf the world will take those of us that believe in personal freedom and liberty and will kill us. Few will survive and those that do won't be on a boat in the Pacific. Oil is the commodity that drives our economy. It is what makes our bread and clothes. If you control the oil, you control the production of food and fiber. Control food and fiber and you control the people.

To John Disney,

You gave us some great strategy when Durban Deep merged with Blyvoor and Buffelsfontein. Those holding the "B's" did a lot better than the Durban Deep shareholders into which they merged.

Do you think that it is better to hold Western Deep or Free State rather than Vaal Reefs?

Thanks for your perspective from South Africa.

"...there is another element to the argument: the official fixed dollar-price of gold is not just a price, it is a commitment that the national currency will retain a stable purchasing power over time."

This was once thought of as "National Honor"

This one sentence includes three G30 members, all of whom are 'saying'
the Right Thing'

"Toyoo Gyohten, Volcker's co-author, reports that "Arthur Burns later told us he thought floating would surely bring misery
to mankind, and that once begun, floating would be hard to end and could last anywhere from a few years to a century." Arthur
Burns was right on this issue at Camp David: dollar instability has brought misery to the world. The enduring legacy of the
floating dollar has been the current era of unparalleled dollar instability. ( Chart 1 ) "
This from an economic report by a distinguished economist, with a
cover letter from US Senator C. Mack. It is a worthwhile read if
you would like some background.

http://www.senate.gov/~jec/birnbaum2.html

Okay, there is much to what you say. Much indeed. However, there are alternatives to oil and much can be done in this country when there is the will to accomplish.

I wanted to suggest that oil may not be king and there is much to say that it will not. Once again I say that there is much to what you have posted. There are so many things intertwined. I think that the actual events will determine which fork in the road we travel down.

The coming depression will create strange bedfellows indeed. I woud also point out that those who think they control our fate could easily find their well laid plans severely disrupted.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.30 A new 31 year high

XAU/Spot Ratio = .240

KahunnaGrand, maybe it would behoove a person to buy a small farm in the country and/or start a food/commodity storage program. Throw in some precious metals and you'll be able weather the storm.

test

A year ago when Alan Greenspan gave his "irrational exuberance speech the
Dow/Gold Ratio was about 17.50, nearly 10 ounces ago. Can you imagine yourself handing over 27 beautiful St. Gaudens gold pieces to buy only one share of each of 30 crummy stocks? Thats what you did if you bought the Dow today.

Has anyone taken or plans on taking delivery of of gold on the comex? I called and they faxed me some info but I am disturbed with the quality and quanity quoted.

Page 13-10 ( g ) states: By the tender of a warehouse reciept for gold, duly endorsed for transfer, the endorser shall be deemed to warrant that the gold described therein weighs 100 troy ounces ( 5% more or less ) and is not less than 995 fine.

So I guess the contract is for a bar weighing 95 to 105 oz. between 995 and 9999 fine gold. Can anyone help me clear this up? What kind of bar do you recieve? Is it old Nazi gold or what?

C'mon Donald. The point is well made EXCEPT that you mean 27 BEAUTIFUL Maple Leafs. Canada's pure bullion coins. Not St.Gaudens which I'm sure have a healthy premium over bullion regardless of our current bear market.

Donald, the question is really, which will have more value a year from now, 27 St Gaudens or a share of each of the dow stocks..... I would put my money on the dow, at the very least its a much more diversified investment.

From my perch on the world I think that society will head to the left. There are people in this country that would have me thrown in jail. Because not only do I own a firearm and have kids, I keep the kids full and the guns loaded. I am 30 minutes from law enforcement help of any kind. But this would not make any difference to the bleading heart do gooders. By the way my kids respect and know how to use firearms. But when society crumbles the people of today will fall for the "Leader" that will provide them the most at the least effort. Reguardless of how many freedoms they have to give up. And LSteve, are there people left that would tolerate the brutal daylight to after dark lifestyle of a subsistance farm. My daddy was an Okie. They left their wonderfull existance in Carter County Oklahoma and went to California in 1934. For all the hardships they endured in the camps in CA and the suffering they went through out there it beat the lifestyle they had on their subsistance farm. And these people were tougher than a gravel lined bathtub. Imagine what the people of today would give up if things get half as hard as it was then. Talk about blood in the streets!

A speech on how high the gold price will rise
when flows of official gold cease was scrapped
by its author at the last minute in favor of
( or should we say "in flavor of" ) an impromptu
commentary on New Orleans cuisine. Frank
Veneroso, widely known for his global
macroeconomic views and in particular his
knowledge of the gold market, stepped to the
podium and announced, "I have just returned
from a tour of the French Market and, found it
much more interesting than the Stock Market.
I feel Bourbon Street has better values to
offer than Wall Street. The wonderful meals
I had, especially the gumbo soup at Oliver's,
have convinced me to limit my remarks on the
gold market to the following:

"It always gets darkest just before the
lights go out."

He then proceeded to speak for thirty minutes
on the delight of using spices in everyday
meals, paying particular attention to the
Cajun spices he had just discovered prowling
the Farmers Market.

gold lease rate is up .5% in the last three weeks. I hope that some of these bankers enjoy their 2.5% return on their leased gold when they find out that the mining companies cant return the gold they borrowed from the banks. Pegasus where are you?

I have told my broker, Lind-Waldock, that I intend to take delivery on 1 contract of Comex Dec 97 gold. I have not yet heard from anyone, and called L-W today and was told that I had not been "delivered on" yet, to just sit tight. It's my understanding that if the gold delivered is more or less than 100 ozs., my account will be charged based on the actual weight. Also, I understand that the gold will be in the form of 1 bar or 3 bars of equal weight.

I noticed at FWN Headlines that Comex delivery notices were going to be delayed today - that was @ 8:30 this morning. Any one have any news on Comex deliveries, or stocks today?

Yesterday, a FWN Headline story talked about some firms "stopping" gold contracts. Anyone know what this means? Thank you.

I have indeed come to this page for information and I greatly appreciate it when I find it. I did not however come to this page for wild speculation about the collapse of the financial world.

It was not my intention to insult John Disney nor anyone else, but I would like to inject a bit of reality into proceedings. Best wishes always,

The One with Point Ears.

http://www.gold.org/Ginfos/Gi3min.htm

IMHO you are right about the 1995 gold mining statistics. The WGC backs you up on that. But does that give you a license to be cruel to the little people?

COMEX DELIVERY NOTICES FOR TODAY: PART 2

-- GOLD

ISSUED TODAY PREVIOUS DAY'S STOPPERS

Aig Clearing Corporation 5 Aig Clearing Corporation 140

Prudential Securities Inc 231 Goldman Sachs & Co. 156

Age Comm. Clearing Corp. 2 Prudential Securities Inc. 7

E.D.&F. Man International 12 Carr Futures Inc. 1

Geldermann Inc. 17 Geldermann Inc. 8

Sterling Commodities Corp. 4 Gerald, Inc. 1

Abn Amro Chicago Corp. 10 Merrill Lynch Futures, Inc. 3

Klein & Co. Futures, Inc. 4 Saul Stone And Company 2

Merrill Lynch Futures, Inc. 2 Republic New York Sec. 12

Morgan Stanley & Co., Inc. 27 Rosenthal - Collins Group 1

J.P. Morgan Futures Inc. 1 Spear, Leeds & Kellogg 2

Saul Stone And Company 7 TOTAL 333

First Options of Chicago 3

Spear, Leeds & Kellogg 5

Smith Barney Inc. 3

TOTAL 333

-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --

-- -- -- -- HI-GRADE SILVER GOLD

ISSUED TODAY 672 533 333

SO FAR FOR DECEMBER 6,500 6,700 4,365

Anyone know what STOPPERS mean?

Gene Inger Predictions:

Dow over 8,000;
..........new highs no doubt for S&P coming;
.............................while facts haven't changed.

What about a drop into mid-December? Well, my opinion is that's still coming, but as it will be a bullish pause for the moment, barring news of shock capability. Complete Market Forecast at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger120297.html

Short those techs the best is yet to come.

"Intel, Texas Instruments etc. dead money
Decelerating growth for the best of them
Chronic over supply." CNBC

3-COM will not meet numbers down in after hours trading.

did no better than my gold stock is doing.....supposed ta get 50-60 MPH winds in the next 12 hours and am already eagerly awaiting sunrise and the awesome sight of huge waves crashing in----nothing is more awesome than the ocean during a storm!!~~~~~~~~~~~~~~EB: Where are YOU?? Aurator: Just got home and thanks for latest info!!!!!......hi liz....

Volume today was twice the daily average. On New York, volume was 2.2 Million shares. On Toronto, 1.6 Million. Professional short traders may be starting to cover their positions here. ABX has been shorted 12 Million shares for at least the past six months.

Rest assured, that when these guys cover their short position in Barrick, Gold will have hit bottom, assuming they don't short again in January though. Ie December trading may be to realize profits from short selling.

I'll keep you posted when I find out the current short position in Barrick.

Comex warehouse gold stocks rose today by 14,372 oz to 760,773 oz BUT once again eligible stocks fell 652 oz to 210,362 oz.

December open interest stood at 4086 contracts as of last night. Todays delivery notices totalled 333 contracts bringing the total for December to 4,365 contracts. As I understand the delivery process, it is the short side that notifies comex they intend to deliver, then comex assigns the contract supposedly by age, with the oldest one first in line. A curious question here, where is the gold coming from? It is not in the form of 'eligible' gold on comex. It could be from bonafide hedgers who have sold a contract against gold they had under their mattress. If it is from speculative hedge funds they must still procure the gold for delivery. BTW don't spot margins increase dramatically at this time to keep the specs honest?

Silver warehouse stocks were unchanged today.

First of all if anyone has time, check this sight out, for us Aussies
are goin have a long hot one with hopefully no more casualties.
http://www.netzone.com/~medic/firexmas.html
Gold? Well if it doesnt reverse trend in the next week looks like 220-250
by xmas eve. Skate you arsehole! Get out of PNG now. This is a real threat. May peace and balanced government return to the good people
of PNG.
P.S. Sitting in the middle of bushland and sh*ting myself about the
potential for devastating fires to engulf us. Beautiful oneday a
deathtrap the next.

comex eligible gold stocks should read 210,362 ounces enough for 1.04 oz per outstanding contract. This is the lowest ratio I have seen yet.

I have lost track of Precter's current view on the expected bottom for gold. Can anyone bring me up to date?

All: Did you notice Bill Buckler's 14:21 post about the imminent problem with the debt ceiling. As I recall, congress must raise the debt ceiling -- so this will cause some market turmoil. Not as much as not having a budget. Interesting isn't it that no one is doing anything -- with the deadline weeks away. What happened to the budget surplus?

Hedgehog: Looking at a map of Australia --what part of the country are the fires in? I understand they are in the south east.

Allen
I noticed you singled Keeling and I out and left J.Disney alone.interesting.
He was the one that suggested the US would use nuclear bombs.
I believe my comments are relevant to the price of Gold especially if my
prediction BIG IF comes about and a large portion of the SA Gold down the road is not produced . According to Pomboy at WGC @320 Gold
5 out of 19 SA Gold mines are not profitable and @ 290 Gold 12 of 19?

223

Gee with a defence like that, I sure don't need enemies.
I am not gooing to get into name calling its just not my style.little or not.
I will say that my statement was that the US is repeat is not was in 1985
and those figures won't be known for quite some time. But I do recall
reading that the US would overtake SA for a number of reasons .In any event my point was that SA Gold production has been in a steady decline in part because of Geological and economic reasons.I shall attempt to locate the article and post it.

It is not my intention to dwell on SA and its Gold production or lack of, and since I have made my views known on this issue I shall refrain
from further comments, say for extraordinary reasons.

Thanks for the info. How much is Lind-Waldock charging you to take delivery? Does L-W have an office in N.Y.? How does L-W take possession of the gold? Post office charges $28.10 for 6.5lb. package with $30,000. insurance sent registered/priority/insured. Do you know if I can still buy a Dec. contract and take delivery?

I know you are by the ocean somewhere but where?Paperdoll

that should be 1995 not 1985

Korea down 4.75%, Japan down .87%

To Tantalus Rex:
You seem to have some insight into Barrick.
I have become a recent investor in Placer Dome. Could you give me an opinion on the upside potential of PDG. It seems to move in lock step with Barrick except for today.
An opinion would be greatly appreciated.

One of the reasons that I enjoy Kitco is the global perspective provided by its many contributors. I'm looking at a Blanchard and Comapny Economic Research Unit report ( a.k.a. advertisement ) lauding the virtues of platinum. One of those is the tribal turmoil in S. Africa which can shut off supply at any moment. On the other hand Jim Blanchard's newletter says buy S. Africa. Their is no connection between Blanchard and Co. and Jim Blanchard but you get my point. Combined with the cleansed and politically correct news about S. Africa that we receive in the U.S. media, its hard to get a decent perspective. Many thanks to those who have enlightened us about other parts of the world such as S. Africa.

That's because your name is easier to type ;- ) No offense intended in leaving JD out!

What time does Green speak. Anyone know.

Hong Kong analyst Milhouse shares his latest economic and financial wisdom. Again, he draws special attention to the significance of Money Supply. Correctly he observes, If confidence in financial assets and government controlled currencies was to significantly reduce, then the total gold reserves of all Central Banks ( worth 320 billion dollars at current gold prices ) could be absorbed in an instant by private investors.

Of monumental import is his assertion that ...it must be
remembered that there are 3.8 billion ounces of gold in the world
and the supply is increasing by ( ONLY ) 1.75% each year ( probably less for the next few years due to mine closures ) , WHEREAS there are 5,300 billion US dollars in the world, and the supply is increasing by 9% each year. The end result is obvious.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse1130.html

I had the chance to play with a freind's Omega charting/analysis program the other day. Liked it so much that I'm thinking about getting my own. I like the types of data that you can get ( e.g. gold price, U.S. and Candadian stocks, indexes from around the world, most currencies, and futures ) and that you can download data to ASCII ( text ) files for further torture with other software such as statistics packages. I couldn't find silver on it though. Seems like a good way to torture data until it confesses. Anyone have a comment on what packages are the best given positives for me outlined above?

N.J. & Milhouse: Could you share with us the latest on gold and silver from Martin Armstrong?

NJ -- I believe it's 8:30 EST..

Hey! Kitco is working again! :- )

IDT -- What version were you looking at? Super Charts or Trade Station?

Korea down 5% again. Isn't this country supposedly one of the world's biggest lenders?

Analyst Mike Sheller asserts long-term speculators in bullion and mining stocks may be looking at the kind of opportunity right now that presents itself every several years in the heartbeat of the gold cycle. The last time he made a similar call, he was RIGHT ON THE MONEY in predicting the lows of Oil and Gas stocks in early 1994. Subsequently, hundreds of percent gains were made.

At this particular astrological moment, he says, We kind of feel the same way right now about gold and silver. He names his favorite stocks... which may rise to the stars ( my pun, and intended ) :

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro120297.html

I have been using Tradestation since 1994 and also have some other software. For sure the charting abilities of Tradestation are absolutely superb plus you can custom-make just about any indicator that you can dream up and put it on your charts. You have total control over colour, scales, fonts, numbers of charts per page, etc etc. What I find very useful is to set up a custom page with my favourite indicators on it, then cylce all the companies thorugh that template in this way looking say at the family of gold companies to see how they all compare. DOn't get in a rush cause there aren't yet going up, but I might venture a guess that if theres no morepooping in the nest, they may have reached bottom.

West of Sydney and Eastern Victoria. Problem is we usually have to deal with fires around Feb. Such an early start to the fire season is ominous.
I think South Australia is hit to but not as serious.
Gold info. Normandy has 5.7 million ounces forward sold at A$711/ounce
from which it expects to realise an average of A$610/ounce in 1997-98.
Selby got any ideas about who might be the purchaser of this gold at
such inflated prices. I just cant see the logic.

Hedgehog: What do those figures translate into in U$ ?

A. Goose, was Doug Casey at SF and, if so, can you
synopsize his comments. I don't follow his stock
recommendations but, as a strategic thinker, I find him
to be worth paying attention to.

Tzadeak, IMO, your opinions are meaningful and germane.

Arden, what do you think the chances are of a short-squeeze on the dec gold?

Donald: re your 16:55

GE...IBM...EXXON...ATT....P&G....COKE....ST. Gauden.

The last item on this list seems to fall off pretty badly at the end here. GE has Tom Edison as its founder and has been paying a dividend since 1899. IBM developed computer technology to the indispensable tool it is today. Exxon, with its six sisters, energizes the world. AT&T allows us to communicate with anyone on the planet, P&G sells soap, Coke makes the world a better place. And the rest of the DJIA have just simply been a more practical way to build wealth, happiness and civil society
than all the Gaudens which were ever minted.

Even with the dow at these high levels, there still remains less risk in equities than in gold.

neal@1122-----

have you tried calls on the element itself? let us know
the disposition of this scenario from rod serling---------------------------do-do-dodo---do-do-dodo


if this is true, the shorts are standing on the edge of a razor,
leaning over the precipice at a 45* angle, supported by the last
breath of a dying bear. with his demise, the chasm will be violated
by free-falling ( petty ) chaff, cut to ribbons by the pendulum as
its' work is completed in one fell swoop.

to think all is peachy with the markets and curriencies due to
their survival of the recent chaos is......well, ascinine.
the mexican peso is a sick puppy and is making the same pattern
it made before its' calamatous drop way back when. puts are
damned near a !; ) sure ; ) bet!!!!

these are signals that even the sleep-walkers should be aware of.
the increasing volatility, the increasing volumes.....

what NOW?

normal market activity? one day this year ( '97 ) , paper will slam down
and never look back for what may well be the same period of time as
gold was trod upon.

beware you sellers of gold and buyers of paper--------

your day is at hand-----

lgb_2-----yours especially----!; )

cherokee!; ) what-the-hell-ted????

by a short piece of iron in his side. A gentle reminder that his comments are not appreciated.

"It always gets darker just before the lights go out."

I wonder just what he is meaning here. This is derived from the saying, "It is always darkest just before the dawn".

He obviously intended to give his commentary until just prior to his talk. The fact that he spent his time talking about something completely irrelevant to his stated topic or the context of his venue indicates he was under duress. In toeing the literal line to not speak out he never the less wanted to make it obvious that he is doing so unwillingly. Something like a prisoner of war signing his "confession" with the name 'Mickey Mouse' ( this was done once in Vietnam by an Amercian POW ) .

There are two strong possible readings of his variation on the old saying.

1 ) The price is going through the floor.

In this case the portion about it 'getting darkest' pertains to prices dropping. And so the 'lights going out' would imply a collapse in the price of gold.

2 ) The powers are losing control which will lead to chaos and panic.

What happens when you turn out the lights? Fear and panic. When people can't "see" they lose control of themselves. The intent of meaning here is to say "if you think gold dropping is a bad scene, then wait until you see what's really coming down the road".

Are you still out there...Check out your mail. Hope to hear from you a.s.a.p.

ROR: Short the techs if you must, but be nimble and quick! I placed another order for $25,000 of Compaq equipment today. We are also buying another large model AS400 from IBM this month. The tech stocks are doing much better than gold mining! The inside scoop from a friend at BJ Services ( Oil Field equipment and services ) is that they have so much work that a third shift has been added. Tech and Energy Services stocks are just taking a little breather here.

Where did Mr. Veneroso give his talk on spices and the like?

Date: Tue Dec 02 1997 20:22
hipshot:

Doug was not at the San Francisco conference.

http://www.zolatimes.com/V1.5/PageOne.html

Aussie worth .678 US. A$711=US$482 A$610=US$414
Anyone got info on Southern Gold ( Bahamas ) Limited. I know major
shareholder is RTZ at I think about 75% but I am keen to know who
other shareholders are ?

Read todays issue of GMO by Steven Jon Kaplan; the 3rd paragraph and see what you make of it.

My Take:
First: Over a period of time; the Asian's purchased the real thing, gold - a big no-no as far as the CB powers are concerned.
Second: A prime gold producer's CB sells 2/3rd's of its gold stock.
Third: Rumors about other CB's primed to sell gold. Fourth: Speculative attacks on Asian currencies and markets.
My Conclusions:
The powers decided to deal the Asians a swift blow and the rest of the world a stern warning that gold is a bad investment.
I'm sure that the powers will be wrong, especilly when the so-called first world markets tank. Japan has come close to failing to many times

Dr. Paul A. Hein, M.D. shares his insightful views on Why a currency is strong or weak. His poignant example of a weak currency is the Albanian Lek vis--vis a strong currency, the Almighty Buck. It exudes common-sense logic... and is indeed a refreshing down to earth explanation of the underlying rationale:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/hein120297.html

Speed, re your 10:42 statement that the "smart money" bought Gold in 1984 at $285 / Oz. really cracked me up!! here we are with 400% higher DOW, all other commodities and investments far higher than they were in 84, but the "smart money" bought a investment that eroded away to roughly half or less of it's previous purchasing power!! That's so rich Speed, it's such a great microcism of the convoluted thought processes and gyrations that Goldbugs have to go through to somehow convince themselves thay havn't taken a terrible financial beating.

JTF ( 18:58 ) I've just updated the page on my website dealing with the history of the US debt ceiling going back to 1940 ( when it was under $50 Billion ) .

The URL is http://www.the-privateer.com/usdebt.html

The interesting factor is that the debt reported by the Treasury jumped by $27 Billion over the weekend to $5.489 Trillion. The debt ceiling was raised to $5.5 Trillion on March 29, 1996 by Mr Clinton.

The Congress has raised the ceiling before "on the quiet" and there's nothing to stop them from doing so again. The reason that the debt ceiling became such big news in 1995-96 was because of the "recalcitrance" of the Republican dominated Congress. It's a moot point as to whether the present Congress will prove equally recalcitrant. I don't think they will.

Nonetheless, the debt ceiling and the progress towards it is worth following. Imagine the consternation if the U.S. government were to shut down as they did in late 1995. Everyone everywhere has been shovelling whatever they can rescue from the Asian and Latin American melt downs into Treasury debt.

Puetze, where are you? Do you not realize that as I type this, we have a once per century planetary alignment that is the certain harbinger of a total collapse of the DOW tomorrow? Particularly since it is a new Moon? And Elliot wave theory demands a crash this week? You're lettin me down here pal!! Do I have to make the crash predictions on your behalf now or what?

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Interesting short term Double Bottom, If it breaks
out of this channel to the Upside, It could be time
to scale into a position . However short term
signals, no matter how "Good" they look, don't
have any "Real" predicting powers.

hey Ted have you gone to bed?

Did anyone read or hear a reason why Chase is no longer a depository for Comex? I would assume that they are paid a fee for this service. Knowing bankers have a strong affinity for fees, I wonder why they came to the conclusion that the risk was not worth the reward ( fee ) ?
Secondly, is this unusual for two Comex depositories to resign during a period of brisk contract trading? Surely Chase has not run out of vault space.

I believe that once a contract is assigned for delivery to me, that the Comex will step in and ask me how I want to handle the delivery; i.e., do I want a depository in New York to keep it, and if so, which one. Or, I could elect to take physical possession of it, which I intend to do. I presume they will mail it to me, insured, and I will have to pick up the cost of that. Lind-Waldock probably has an office in New York, but I don't think they will be involved. L-W's Chicago accounting office will just be responsible for sending a wire or check to the Comex to pay for the gold. I would think that any charge by L-W would be nominal.

Earlier, Arden posted that the short sellers first notified the Comex that they intended to deliver gold and then the delivery was assigned to a long position based on age ( oldest 1st ) . That implied, to me, that a long might not be filled if a short didn't elect to deliver. I hope that is wrong, but would appreciate any advice on this subject from anyone familiar with these practices.

I know you can buy Dec gold, but I don't know what the status on delivery would be in light of the preceding paragraph; obviously, you would have one of the youngest long positions.

TED -- Check out the weather on Mount Washington http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/dd.htm

How do 100+ MPH winds sound to ya? :- ) ( It was 4 degrees F on the summit a while ago... )

Lurky: It was Steady at 10:42, not SPEED. I'm usually on the side of common sense and tech and energy stocks. I do like silver and have been temporarily cured of goldoholism.

Captain Bill: according to info on the US debt site, the statutory debt ceiling looks more like $5.95 trillions. See

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdmss10.htm at the bottom of the page.

Tyler Rose -- Check this site out if you haven't already...
http://www.nymex.com/contract/gold.html

Look at the delivery specifications............

http://www.nymex.com/contract/gold.html

speed---

the oil-field is booming like the mid 70's except with
an obvious quantam leap in their tecnological capabilities.

there are tremendous un-discovered and over-looked reserves
through-out the gulf coast region both shallow and deep.
to put it in perspective-----mobil oil traded tenneco a small
tertiary field located on the border of texas and mexico
( 7 gas-lift oil wells ) producing 25 bbl/d ( total ) , for
another tract of land with no producing wells. tenneco went
in and drilled horizontally and produced 400 bbl/d ( each ) for over
8 months with rapid decline till stabilizing at approx 100 bbl/d ( total )

j ray mcdermott out of morgan city, louisiana is one of the biggest
off-shore constructors of pipe-lines and derrick-barges for installing
and building the drilling and production rigs. they have a 3 year back-log of work and are desperate for qualified off-shore and in-shore
oil-field related work. the gulf-coast oil and oil services industry is
booming!

off-shore---2 wks----in-shore---1 wk----for 4 yrs....
3/4 of the year offshore, producing the fuel for the
engines of the corporate giants. sanity, and in-sanity-----
relative terms with many facades.

cherokee!; ) back-to-the-70's------one-more-time-----

speed---

the oil-field is booming like the mid 70's except with
an obvious quantam leap in their tecnological capabilities.

there are tremendous un-discovered and over-looked reserves
through-out the gulf coast region both shallow and deep.
to put it in perspective-----mobil oil traded tenneco a small
tertiary field located on the border of texas and mexico
( 7 gas-lift oil wells ) producing 25 bbl/d ( total ) , for
another tract of land with no producing wells. tenneco went
in and drilled horizontally and produced 400 bbl/d ( each ) for over
8 months with rapid decline till stabilizing at approx 100 bbl/d ( total )

j ray mcdermott out of morgan city, louisiana is one of the biggest
off-shore constructors of pipe-lines and derrick-barges for installing
and building the drilling and production rigs. they have a 3 year back-log of work and are desperate for qualified off-shore and in-shore
oil-field related work. the gulf-coast oil and oil services industry is
booming!

off-shore---2 wks----in-shore---1 wk----for 4 yrs....
3/4 of the year offshore, producing the fuel for the
engines of the corporate giants. sanity, and in-sanity-----
relative terms with many facades.

cherokee!; ) back-to-the-70's------one-more-time-----

Sorry for being late in responding.

panda : Thanks.

IDT : No new report out yet. His stance remains bearish until CBS have sold their excess gold and have reolved the disputes for membership of EMU. He expects both will have been completed by July 1998. He feels that Euro is bound to fail. Once the reality of Euro sets in and the CBs are done with their 'portfolio adjustment', he maintains gold will go to record highs in a bull run lasting from July 1998 to 2003.

In the meantime he says if gold finishes 1997 below 304.3 there will be new lows ahead in Apr-Jul 1998, with 269.0 as critical support. However, If gold finishes 1997 below 293.5, we could see 229.5. For the short term he expects a rally in January 1998, with the final lows during April-July 1998.

Today is the 17th business day that has passed since I my last bullion coin order. Previously, deliveries within 10 business days. Where is the Glut? I need to purchase directly from the Glut.
By the way, are you an East Texan? Hope we get our gold.

speed---

the oil-field is booming like the mid 70's except with
an obvious quantam leap in their tecnological capabilities.

there are tremendous un-discovered and over-looked reserves
through-out the gulf coast region both shallow and deep.
to put it in perspective-----mobil oil traded tenneco a small
tertiary field located on the border of texas and mexico
( 7 gas-lift oil wells ) producing 25 bbl/d ( total ) , for
another tract of land with no producing wells. tenneco went
in and drilled horizontally and produced 400 bbl/d ( each ) for over
8 months with rapid decline till stabilizing at approx 100 bbl/d ( total )

j ray mcdermott out of morgan city, louisiana is one of the biggest
off-shore constructors of pipe-lines and derrick-barges for installing
and building the drilling and production rigs. they have a 3 year back-log of work and are desperate for qualified off-shore and in-shore
oil-field related work. the gulf-coast oil and oil services industry is
booming!

off-shore---2 wks----in-shore---1 wk----for 4 yrs....
3/4 of the year offshore, producing the fuel for the
engines of the corporate giants. sanity, and in-sanity-----
relative terms with many facades.

cherokee!; ) back-to-the-70's------one-more-time-----

Gene Inger Predictions:

Dow over 8,000;

........................new highs no doubt for S&P coming;

........................................................................while facts haven't changed.

What about a drop into mid-December? Well, my opinion is that's still coming, but as it will be a bullish pause for the moment, barring news of shock capability. Complete Market Forecast at:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger120297.html

In a nutshell is right. This article shows clearly the hollow wealth that has become America. Printin Clinton and his gang who go along with the bankers are nothing more than common criminals.

America should hang its head in shame.

Date: Tue Dec 02 1997 21:40
Tyler Rose :

Thanks for keeping us up to date on your saga. I find it very helpful, both in learning how to purchase gold in this manner and, maybe more importantly, learning how this system works.

aaaaarrrrrgggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

KahunnaGrande,

Both my Grandfathers did the opposite during the depression. On worked in a window factory in Cincinatti, and after the crash went to Iowa to work on the farm. My other Grandfather was working the wheat fields of Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota. After the crash he bought a farm that was in foreclosure. Both did very well.

Sometimes living on a subsistance farm with 100oz. buryed on the back 40 is more attractive than this cubicle I live in.

If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude
greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace.
We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand
that feeds you. May your chains set lightly upon you; and may posterity
forget that ye were our countrymen."
Samuel Adams

Cherokee: Thank you, Thank you, Thank you....

STUDIO.R
Today marks the twenty-second day since my third last bullion coin order at
company with a long term established business relationship! Upon inquiry, the
excuse I was given was that numisimatic coin shipments took priority over my
bullion order. My last two orders answering ads in U.S.TODAY, from new
dealers are approaching a ten day period. I guess EAST coast people and
WEST coast people service us HOOSIER GOLD BUGS last as the more
exciting people of the world get the most attention! But that's because we're so
damm boring! But we will eventually get our coins! A dispute a few years ago
with an EAST COAST dealer a few years ago , proved to this boring HOOSIER
GOLDBUG, EAST COAST bullion dealers don't want the state attorney general to
get involved in BULLION SALES!

Allen,
re: your post...it may interest you to know that Bre-X had those quotes on its ill fated website when things began to fall apart!!! Not that I am casting aspersions....

Mo in to

Dollar coin, new quarters approved
Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press

WASHINGTON ( December 2, 1997 1:06 p.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) -- A new, gold-colored dollar coin and quarters honoring the 50 states will take their place in Americans' pockets and purses under legislation signed by President Clinton on Monday.

The bill authorizes the treasury secretary to create a new dollar coin, with a distinctive edge to go along with its distinctive color. It would replace the Susan B. Anthony dollar when government stockpiles run out in about 30 months.

Also, beginning in 1999, the U.S. Mint will produce five new quarters a year, each commemorating a state. The familiar profile of George Washington will remain. But, for 10 years, the American eagle will give way -- possibly to such critters as Delaware's blue hen, Wyoming's buffalo or Louisiana's pelican.

Each design will be developed by state officials, working with two federal panels: the Citizens Commemorative Coin Advisory Committee and the Commission on Fine Arts. The treasury secretary gets the final say and is directed by the law to avoid frivolous designs, depictions of living persons and portraits that would create a two-headed quarter.

Congress also left the design of the new dollar coin to the treasury secretary, avoiding a dispute between lawmakers who want it to depict the Statue of Liberty and others who want an actual woman or women of historic significance.

Coin collectors have been complaining for years about the lack of change in the nation's circulating coinage. The last change was the Anthony dollar, minted from 1979 to 1981. It fell flat with the public because it looked and felt too much like a quarter.

"This new dollar coin has the potential to gain much wider acceptance by the public," said Rep. Michael Castle, R-Del., chairman of the House monetary subcommittee.

Advocates of the dollar coin had also pushed to remove the dollar bill from circulation, but interests ranging from the unions representing government printers to the company producing paper for the bills vigorously opposed that step. The legislation Clinton does not affect paper dollars.

"The general public is not ready to part with the dollar bill," Castle said.

The quarter designs will be issued in the order that the states ratified the Constitution or were admitted to the union. The first five in 1999 will be Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Georgia and Connecticut.

Richard J. Schwary, president of the Professional Numismatists Guild, said the new law will "put pride back in our pockets."

"Money is history you can hold in your hands," he said.

By DAVE SKIDMORE, Associated Press Writer

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/dd.htm Mount Washington weather..

Bill Buckler: Thanks for clarifying what is likely to happen when we reach the debt ceiling. I had not realized that you were the author of that interesting web site that I had visited at least a year ago -- long before I was a Kitco regular.

I think we need to watch the rate of the US debt rise - I wonder how much more it will rise after the IMF signs the deal with S Korea. Perhaps we will find that the US debt rises much more quickly than one would anticipate based on "official" US obligations to S. Korea. Did you notice that the IMF is only putting up 20Billion of the bailout package? The rest is from individual countries. I wonder who decides who owes what. I feel as if the US is sitting on a mountain of debt so large that one does not even appreciate its size. Piling a little SE Asian debt -- several hundred billion or so -- evenly spread out all over the mountain -- might not be noticeable to the unfortunate souls who sit on it -- the American people.

We have all been speculating on why gold has been going down for the last 1 1/2 years. Is your opinion like RJ's -- that the most primary reason is the need to keep the US dollar strong so that the ECU countries have a positive trade balance -- so that they qualify for the Jan 1 1999 launching date? I doubt that the "powers that be" anticipated the SE Asia currency crisis, which may delay official unveiling of the ECU, or weaken it. There is a real risk that the EURO-bound countries flirt with recession or worse if they make the EURO currency too strong. In fact, I wonder -- could the dollar continue to rise and gold continue to fall because of european economic problems? When gold rises and the dollar falls, it may be a sign that certain key groups have run out of resources, or that their goal has been accomplished. I doubt the latter will occur before year 2000, given the deflationary state of the world.

Running out of resources to keep the dollar strong is more likely.

Analyst Mike Sheller asserts long-term speculators in bullion and mining stocks may be looking at the kind of opportunity right now that presents itself every several years in the heartbeat of the gold cycle. The last time he made a similar call, he was RIGHT ON THE MONEY in predicting the lows of Oil and Gas stocks in early 1994. Subsequently, hundreds of percent gains were made.

At this particular astrological moment, he says, We kind of feel the same way right now about gold and silver. He names his favorite stocks... which may rise to the stars ( pun intended ) :
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro120297.html

Hong Kong -1.75, Indonesia -1.75, South Korea -4.25, Thailand -1.5--the losses pile up faster than the gains.

JTF:

What about the European economy do you see that leads you to believe that it is weak or weakening?

tolerant1: Just how much gold is in this new US dollar coin that is to "be like history you can hold in your hands?"

Will it look and feel like the St.Gaudens 20 dollar gold piece?

And just how long will it take for the gold veneer to wear off while it is in circulation?

IDT -- Decision one, real time or end of day version.

Decision two is do you like to write indicators and trading systems? Super Charts will do almost everything that Trade Station will. The big deal with TS is the Power Editor. If you're not in to writing complex systems or doing 'funny' things, then Super Charts will suffice. You're paying big bucks for the Power Editor in TS.

SC has the Quick Editor in it. It will allow you to write quite a few studies and indicators. There are times when the only way to do something is with the Power Editor. So the question really becomes, "Do you really like to write indicators and systems?" If the answer is yes, then ( $$$ ) you would probably like Trade Station better. Otherwise Super Charts could fill the bill nicely.

Hoosier...
At least Indiana gold travels by train...our Okie shipments come by horseback through Indian territory. Send word for me in the Spring, if you find work.

I understand that the wear on the coin will reveal the head of Bill Clinton and on the reverse of the coin the slogan will read:

In Printin Clinton We Trust.

Greenspan's appearance before New York Club ends
In a speech, Greenspan noted currency speculators may play a useful role as ``speculation forces currencies through arbitrage into a closer alignment with underlying market values.'' Greenspan also commented on the U.S. economy in question-and-answer session.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971202/greenspan_s_appearan_1.html

Greenspan sees stronger world economy after Asia woes
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971202/asia_greenspan_1stld_1.html
``While the adjustments may be difficult for a time, these crises will pass,'' he said. ``Stronger individual economies and a more robust and efficient international economic and financial system will surely emerge in their wake.''

Japan yen intervention not imminent -- economists
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971202/japan_yen_interventi_1.html
"There's no significant fiscal stimulus that creates any prospect of growth in 1998...so the yen really has to get weaker than it is now,"
"If the Bank of Japan is providing liquidity very generously to keep their financial system stable and at the same time goes to the foreign exchange market and then sops it up your going to be left wondering what is the real intent of all this,"

HK stocks seen pausing to digest property news
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971202/hk_stocks_seen_pausi_1.html
HONG KONG, Dec 3 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong stocks may not have the momentum to push through resistance levels on Wednesday, depressed by the most recent activity in the property market, brokers sai

Chuan says Thai economy worse than he imagined
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971202/chuan_says_thai_econ_1.html
``In truth there are deep down problems that are much worse that what the people perceive,''
``The government needs to clarify the full extent of the problems,''

Tokyo stocks slip in early trade, bank shares hurt
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971202/tokyo_stocks_slip_in_1.html
TOKYO, Dec 3 ( Reuters ) - Tokyo stocks slipped in early morning trade on Wednesday, as shares in the banking sector yet again succumbed to selling pressure, brokers said.
They said worries over the debt-ridden sector lingered in the market.
By 0018 GMT, the key Nikkei 225 average lost 176.42 points or 1.04 percent to trade at 16,733.87. Nikkei December futures fell 180 points to 16,720.
Some brokers said sales in the banking sector seemed to be somewhat speculative.
Brokers also said that the Tokyo market was discouraged by active sales in U.S. high-technology shares overnight.
On Tuesday, the technology-laden Nasdaq Composite index fell 24.34, or 1.49 percent, to 1606.38.

Japan has much to do to get back on track - Rubin
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971202/japan_has_much_to_do_2.html
SANTIAGO, Dec 2 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on Tuesday Japan had a long way to go to put its ailing economy back on track but that it was key to do so for the economic stability of the entire Asian region.
``They ( Japan ) have obviously further issues to deal with to get back on the right track, but if they do get back that would be a big plus,'' he told reporters at the side of a meeting of finance ministers from across the Americas.
``If you can get Japan back on track -- and they have a lot to do to get back on a firm basis -- you'll have an enormous anchor ( in the region ) ,'' he added.
Rubin added the government's announcement that it may use public funds to strengthen its wobbly banking sector was ``significant''.

Sorry to hear about the fires and the two fire fighters. It must be getting pretty rough down there. I hope things get under control and soon.

D.A. I expect that you know much more about what's happening in Europe than I do -- given your trading connections. All I know is that Germany has acknowledged that their GDP growth is not going to be what they expected this year, that the rising of German interest rates is recessionary, given the high German unemployment rate, and high welfare rate. It is as if their attempt to meet the ECU/EMU launch date requirements risks too much. England is doing much better in part because they are not trying to meet the ECU/EMU deadline. I know the economic situation in France is similar to that of Germany.

Russia is a wild card -- not because it is a significant part of the European economy, but because of the civil unrest that may eventually arise in the near future -- and destabilize the rest of Europe. Given how close the former Russian states are to the rest of Europe, Europeans will be rushing to buy gold, and nonEuropean currencies if Russia ignites.

Did you see that Red Cross prediction of famines this winter in Russia? I don't know the accuracy of this prediction, but it is evident that gangsters run much of the country, many honest Russian workers get paid very little if at all, and the IMF appears to be bailing out. Not a good time for the Russian markets to fall. I wonder, just how much did the western Europeans invest in Russia, and SE Asia?

If you know more -- please enlighten us!

Tolerant
Fortunately no bush fires here.
But I do feel for the people of OZ down south.
I have been through some bad fires in Adelaide years ago.
Ash Wednesday in the early 80's
Truly horrific.

Asia woes to lower U.S. inflation rate - Rubin
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971202/asia_woes_to_lower_u_1.html
SANTIAGO, Dec 2 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on Tuesday recent financial turmoil in Asia will have a disinflationary effect on the United States in 1998.
``U.S. inflation is going to be even lower as a result of all this. Lower than it otherwise would have been,'' Rubin told reporters at the side of a meeting of finance ministers from across the Americas.
Rubin earlier said he expected the U.S. economy to continue growing solidly with low inflation next year despite the financial crisis in Asia that has triggered sharp swings on world markets.
He acknowledged that economic troubles in Asia, which are expected to depress U.S. exports to the region, would have ``some'' effect on U.S. performance but added this would not dramatically affect growth in the United States.

I have lurked here off and on for about 10 months. Say what you will about this forum, it is addicting. I am making plans to leave Emergency Medicine, and have been so for about 2 years. My perspective has been to witness an increasing level of violence over the last few years. As an example, we are considering having everyone entering the hospital go through the same type of security check as when you board an airplane. We have had a few incidents recently that nearly resulted in tragedy. My take on all this is, that we live in an unsettled moment in history and that we should be prepared for harder times. I am buying gold and silver.

CHEROKEE: Your observations concerning the energy industry supply a vision of the future, only a few years down the road, for gold and silver. In '94/'95 the number of operating rigs were at their lowest in decades, with equipment suppliers shut down and bankrupt and independent producers unable to take advantage of property giveaways. The gold mining industry is now in a parallel situation. Your comments only serve to remind of what is inevitably to come. And what must be done now to take advantage of the day when people once again throw money at companies with shiny assets in the ground.

Irrational exuberance - right idea, wrong country
NEW YORK, Dec 2 ( Reuters ) - Almost exactly a year after jolting financial markets with warnings of ``irrational exuberance,'' Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will again dissertate on global finance this Tuesday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971202/irrational_exuberanc_1.html
``Greenspan last year cautioned against a potential disease. Today, he might hint at the appropriate remedy,''

Check your mail......

Doctor, if you need a second opinion, I agree with your prescription. But the gold and silver is more of a straight business play than you might imagine. The financial upheavals that are possible will only aggravate an already empty social agenda and a deteriorating sense of life for many citizens. Use your talents well, whatever they are. I have had a recent run-in with the ER, and was happy to run right out. Everyone was great. I thank you for the work you are doing. I have no greater respect for any profession than that of Army medic or ER physician.

You have served your brother and sister with a special mission. It has really meant something, unlike so much of what we do in life, and think is so important.

I thought I would mention that I suspect that computer and peripheral sales will be quite bad this Christmas. My assumption is that people like myself will be putting off their planned purchases because they will be waiting for the deflationary goods from the east to reach our shores. I was planning on buying my son a computer and adding some equipment but because of the asian situation I am putting them off until February/ March 98. Seems like an easy bet that this time the after Christmas seasons will have lower prices. ( IMHO )

ER Physician: I can't resist asking you something, as you are on the front lines so to speak with the fringe of society. Do you see an increase in business within 1-2 days of the full moon? Our neighborhood police dispatcher notices this.

I ( and others more experience than me ) have noticed a pattern in the markets during the full moons -- not good enough to trade on for me anyway -- but I do know to be more alert during these days for a sudden up or down market movement.

You might like to look at "How the moon affects you", by Arnold Lieber, MD, who claims and presents data revealing an ER correlation among other things. I don't believe everything he says, but it is interesting reading.

This ain't Mt.Washington but the wind is sure startin ta make a RACKET...

What does that mean? Lights go out meaning completely mysterious gold moves? Complete drop in price? Drop in economy? Confiscation?

Steve

Tuesday December 2, 10:54 pm Eastern Time

US services prices show some inflation--Greenspan

NEW YORK, Dec 2 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday that prices for U.S. services were rising faster than price stability.

``Service prices which, of course, in the U.S., are the majority of prices... are still moving at pace above what one would characterize as price stability,'' Greenspan said in an answer to a question at a Economic Club of New York function.

Greenspan also said the Fed focuses on risks attached to both inflation and deflation. He ackonwledged that ``deflation is more complex,'' in part because the U.S. central bank has ``very little experience'' in dealing with that development.

``We always defined our basic goal as price stability not the elimination of inflation because it is totally obvious that one can create just as much economic instability, and detriment to growth, with real deflation as one can get... with inflation,'' Greenspan stressed.

The Fed chairman called ``the evidence mixed'' on ``product price deflation... Good prices are quite weak, declining worldwide and in the United States and in many areas.''

Greenspan also commented on ``asset price deflation,'' a more complex mechanism involving both asset deflation and asset inflation.

But the Fed chairman did not give any hint on future Fed policy. He also said the Fed has intensified its research efforts to understand the impact of the ``wealth effect'' from real estate or stock appreciation on consumer spending.

Asked about the increasing trend of mega-mergers among U.S. financial institutions, Greenspan said reckless risk-taking or ``the moral hazard question is probably the most important issue which confronts any of us involved in either domestic finance or international finance.''

``There is a very strong bias against 'too-big-to-fail' as a general proposition,'' Greenspan stressed.

``If there are institutions out there who think their equities are free of potential risk because there are central banks out there, they probably ought to get another job,'' Greenspan warned.

Turning to the mark-to-market practice -- or adjusting the valuation of a security to reflect market changes -- Greenspan said he is ``strongly supportive of marking everything that is relevant to the mark-to-market.''

``But the question really emerges as to the applicability of marking to market... if you are an investor, to understand whether the business is right,'' cautioned Greenspan who said such practice must be enforced only when relevant or providing valuable information to investors.

Yer oil patch posting brings back fond memories os Sabine Pass and younger days long since passed............

sharefin: Out of curiousity, what does your dad say about the fires in Australia? Did you have them in Australia during or before the great depression as well? Did your dad say anything about the environmental changes preceeding the market crash in Australia as well?

I have yet to find any clear parallels between the dust bowl of the thirties in the US, the ElNino of 1929-30, and the great depression in the US, but it certainly is suspicious!

Comments about the markets? Over a 10day intraday period, I see a steady rise in the sp-500, in about a 3 day cycle.

AG may be afraid to raise rates because of the world-wide situation if the rally continues. The flagship computer stocks look weak so far.

Round Island which is in Cape Breton which is in Nova Scotia which is in...
bla bla bla... you get the picture....eh!

Mike Sheller, Thank you for the kind thoughts. I agree that the best way to deal with an ER, is to get in and get out as fast as possible! JTF, They have actually published studies on the full moon and ER visits. Sad to say though, that there was no increased incidents of violence, or other problems at the time of the full moon. I was surprised too. My impression was that things were crazier then. Fascinating stuff.

ER Physician: Have you considered a rural more primary care type practice? Then you are farther away from the less desireables, and where you are desperately needed.

Halla Group Companies Miss 400-Billion Won Debt Payment Halla Group said it missed a debt payment totaling 400 billion won ( $321.5 million ) yesterday because its financial troubles are worsening. Halla's troubles are the biggest crisis yet facing the founding family of Hyundai Group, South Korea's largest conglomerate. Hyundai has annual sales of 68 trillion ( $54.4 billion ) and assets of 53 trillion won. The decision to shed money- losing companies was made at an emergency executive meeting chaired by Chung In Yung, a younger brother of Hyundai Group Chairman Chung Ju Yung. South Korean Stocks Tumble, Led by Electronics; Won Falls South Korean stocks tumbled for a 10th day, led by electronics manufacturers, on concern policy conditions attached to an International Monetary Fund bailout of the country's financial system will drive many companies under. The suspension of four Halla Group companies by the Korea Stock Exchange because of speculation the group is insolvent compounded that concern. Halla, which has interests in shipbuilding and construction, is the country's 12th-largest conglomerate. The benchmark KOSPI stock index fell 19.95 to 357.14, its lowest since May 1987. The won weakened to 1,300 won to the dollar, down 5.5 percent from yesterday.

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Swingll.gif
Swing chart updated.
A down movement within the markets at this point in time will bring on another selling wave.

Evening all

Battle Hymn of the inflationists

"A dollar saved today is 75 cents earned tomorrow." James Reston, Stores, Dec. 1969

This Can$ has formed a bottom ( short term anyway ) . I have been given several buy signals and I went in today with a nice Bull-Spread. There has been much discussion this last week regarding the Can$. First stop .7200, next stop.....back down or up I don't know. I usually don't 'buck' the trend, however, the 14 day ADX says a temporary change of direction is imminent. Many are still bearish. With a little follow through from others we can have a nice rally.....................anyone???? ( trading futures is risky...do your own homework.....**disclaimer** ) . Anyway, wind-schmind.....we had some clouds and brisk weather today ( 60F ) Brrrrrrrrr....I bet it's too cold for the Can. Postal Workers.....your favorite breed-o-cat ( big grin ) .

D.A. - what do you say to a few 'Eaglettes'. 284 before 304?? Although the trade is in your favor right now, i.e. it gets increasingly tougher to push the price down from here. Perhaps you'll understand and slide me an extra 2 or 3 bucks ( 307 ) ??? Let me know;- ) ......btw.......anything on the Can$?!??

Mooney - your cotton a buy Dec 20.....87% historical ( see disclaimer:-0 )

All - Has anyone heard of a company called 'Coastal Carribean' or something like that....it is Oil ( Black Gold, Texas Tea ) . Anyone familiar?? Let me know if you can, Please.

Nick@C - I was rolling about that uncles-brother-second-cousins-best-freind-mother-in-law thing. What great market savvy you have. You asked all the pertinent questions ;- ) . Pet the rotties for me. And don't let them 'dump' on the golf course.

away.....to the charts

uckingandbettingworldwideohmy

Did everyone see this? FBI director Louis Free wrote a letter to Janet Reno, before Nov 25, urging that she seek independent counsel to investigate fund raising by President Clinton and VP Al Gore. Looks like trouble ahead for Janet Reno from Republican circles in Congress.

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971201/news/stories/funds_1.html

Wonder who leaked the content of the letter?

G'day mate.....nother storm is blowin in-----can hear the waves crashin~~~~~~~~~~~~