Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Fri Dec 05 1997 00:11 - ID#257148)
Snap, crackle and Pop!

I am brushing the cobwebs from an old memory that tells me ===found it, from 1984 so is bound to be current===
Au, Ag, Pl, Pa, Os & Rh are all on the "strategic metals stockpile" list.

Pl and Pa have the riskiest supply of these to the US


(Fri Dec 05 1997 00:13 - ID#25588)
short S&P
IDT - No, I missed getting short by 1.25 points. My order was to sell at 987.00, high today 985.75. I'll try again tomorrow. If my price isn't hit I'll consider selling if the market trades under the support area 970-975. potential is down to 900 very quickly.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 00:22 - ID#217243)
XAU down
The XAU will hit 40 in the not to distant future.
The money spigots wont really start up until the
Asian/worldwide mess intensifies into very
high worldwide unemployment. Maybe a few trade tariffs
and a couple more bank failures are in order to really get
this deflation ball rolling.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 00:24 - ID#238422)
@LGB2...regarding Russian oil and gold
Only naive people can believe that Russians would follow common rules
in regard to their oil and gold, if they decide to play with it.

This stuff is UNTOUCHABLE in a big way. Whatever happens with
Russian oil or gold is determined not by RUSSIAN FEDERATION INTERESTS
as a state, but by the PRIVATE INTERESTS of certain groups inside RUSSIA.

Look at this long lasting Japanese sufferings to get platinum out of
Russia and multiply it by 1000, it is going to be close to any certainty
of potential Russian gold activities. They can dump gold just like that,
if they want, or they will play the game in the same manner as with
platinum, or they may buy the gold...

Never apply rules of standard game or logical thinking to Russia,
it is hopeless...

(Fri Dec 05 1997 00:33 - ID#372344)
@ Crunch US$ tied to Gold
I don't quite understand the basis for your conclusion,But I would suspect that the current tie to Gold is however just temporary and partial convertability to Gold will be inevitable IMHO. FYI, not too long ago it was illegal for US citizens to own GOLD, but I guess THEY figured it would be best if US citizens were allowed to own Gold, at least temporarily,so as if and when they went back to the Gold Standard at some point this "Citizens Gold" would be "bought back with paper by the FED" i.e. confiscated, thus adding substancially to their official holdings. The question then becomes at what price is the amount of current US$ debt say 25% convertable into Gold? $3000.00 $5,000.00 stay tuned.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 00:41 - ID#364147)
@ The End
Good night all~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Fri Dec 05 1997 00:52 - ID#373346)
I believe that I read just a few days ago that Russia CB
was buying gold locally. In other words from their domestic

Regarding p.o.g. : Frenzied selling through continued producer
hedging ( really dumb especially for Australia ) , CB lending, and
especially speculator shorts. This game can only last a bit longer!
CB hedging, not selling, has driven the p.o.g. to current levels. As
mines close or wane and financing dries up this becomes much more
interesting. If you're invested in gold or gold stocks why sell now?

The selling is about complete ( although I see near term prices lower ) .

(Fri Dec 05 1997 01:07 - ID#280222)
Big Al and the boys have known for some time exactly what they are about. ( It is to my chagrin that I did not correctly interpret the signals/intent. ) They know precisely what gold will do once they turn the spigots on full; and, they'd rather start at 250 than 400. Can't say as I blame 'em.

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 05 1997 01:08 - ID#24140)
Gold forecasts
to all

My prior post gave two possible levels of support for

gold - around 280 then if this busts around 265.

My basis for this was the ratio of platinum to gold

- The most recent low was .73 oz of plat per oz, and

the low prior to that was .69 - A platinum price of 382

would give you rough gold levels of 279 and then 263.5.

- I believe The gold/silver ratio limit of 57.5 has

been violated. ( anyone got data prior 1987 on this

ratio?? ) .

If the 0.69 ratio is broken, Wayne Angel's $222 is

probably as good as anybody's - Most mines would close

- Franco-Nevada would be running though and probably trading

at a dollar.

- Someone was commenting on the Russians playing

platinum games - Suggest humbly that you make that

palladium games. I think most of the russian platinum

stockpile is gone. Not so Palladium. Also russia

produces much more pallad than platinum, RSA is the

other was around about 3 times as much platinum as


- RSA has not played games with platinum but I wish

they would.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 01:23 - ID#335184)
Gold Stocks Meltdown-CASEY THEORY
Does anyone follow Doug Casey? I know he was extremely cautious last June on buying gold shares. I don't mind catching a falling spear, but would like to avoid the safe if I can before jumping into JR. mining stocks. His theory was that Gold Stocks are not contra- cyclical to the general eqity markets and further that a blow off top there would do even more damage to the Gold Stock market.He has been pounding the table to accumulate gold for over a year from US$320/oz. and now the price dive has decimated JRS. and the XAU as well, ( down approx. 40% in 1 mo. ) while DOW is still standing above 8000. Perhaps deflationary shock of asian depression would ofcourse first be reflected in real money ,aka gold,before coursing through the western markets and economies. Therefor the fall of gold stocks would precede the fall of general equities. Although the current world demand and preference for US denominated debt and equites is the real cause of gold's woes, the purchasing power of the most voracious consumers ( Asia ) has been cut in half through currency devaluation and those who hold gold may be net sellers from financial exigency or for liquidity to meet debts.

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 05 1997 01:27 - ID#24140)
holocaust/genocide info
for cmh

Many thanks your information. fascinating. Would have thanked

you sooner but have been too busy exploring sites you led me to.

Also not anxious to run gauntlet of some on this site who seem

to desire to inhibit/control/limit any dialogue this subject.

The discussion is not really about gold anyway - only where the

"Nazi gold" came from. Probably belongs on some other site.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 01:31 - ID#238422)
@John Disney
With all my respect, what is the basis of your thinking that stockpile
of Russian platinum is gone?

Did you see this stockpile before and after ?

When you do business with Russia, you never know what and how much they
have or don't have unless you see it personally.

However, in regard to platinum, you would simply not be allowed to see
this stockpile, believe me.

May be its gone, I do no know, just consider that there are always two
different sets of ( accounting ) books on nearly every russian enterprise - one for
the management and the other one for potential foreign partners...

In regard to platinum, it could be more than two books...

(Fri Dec 05 1997 01:34 - ID#373346)
Gold/Silver ratio
I believe that in the bull run of 1980 the ratio
became at the lowest 16/1 ( Someone please
correct me if I'm wrong ) . Silver's strength is
the key to the reversal of gold. Current ratio

We all know that gold fundamentals are great
on supply/demand, as is silver's. But silver is
not being minipulated and it is holding steady
in gold's decline. This is a tremendous indication
of supply/demand fundamentals being intact.

Look for silver to rise first ( as is a good historical
indicator ) , and take gold with it.
Time frame: Your guess is as good as mine,
but IMHO next summer-fall precipitous rise after
spring stabilization.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 01:41 - ID#288349)
I found your recent comment about gold to have great depth. Truth is usually very simple.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 01:42 - ID#288349)
I found your recent comment about gold to have great depth. Truth is usually very simple.

News Server
(Fri Dec 05 1997 01:49 - ID#390100)

This group has been trying to piece together the scandals of the White House. Very good site for those interested in this topic.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 01:50 - ID#280222)
golden glo
SCHULTZ: Thanks. I guess I'm just a simple man.... BTW I enjoyed your observation ( straight line ) also. Let us know when that line is breached.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 01:59 - ID#255284)
There are more things in heaven and earth 'Ratio
Crusty I got Ag/Au ratio 1550-1979, any help?

what's your e-mail?


(Fri Dec 05 1997 02:04 - ID#224149)
Sure to become the ware-wolfs of night but the Gold is not a forethought for another brings the the day of physic meaning and Ted remember our day will last a hundred Days and the day is late January for the wicked and the wind blowing fools that we are.Happy Trails

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 05 1997 02:16 - ID#24140)
Russian Platinum
For oris

The basis for my comments - I have been given this information

by two different local PM market analysts. They got the info from contacts in amplats ( ie old rusplat,pp-rust,leplat ) - The amplats

guys visit Norilsk from time to time. The info is perhaps maybe sensitive - I dont know . Since amplats are the worlds largest

platinum producer, I take what they say seriously.

I believed the info to be good and wished to share it - I probably

should not have done so.

The fact that RSA is a much bigger platinum producer than Russia

is common knowledge. Vice versa for palladium - .

You will hear no more from me on this subject. Sorry I bothered you.

Also thank you very much for the advise on dealing with the Russians.

I will treasure it.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 02:22 - ID#402151)

Silver's rise in the face of gold weakness is encouraging. While gold isn't dragging silver lower, it seems to work out that silver won't rise sharply until gold, at the least, stops dropping.
I see the warehouse stocks have made another low for this move.

Do you think the g/s ratio is of any use any more since we seem to have reached a divergence-gold as a monetary metal is becoming useless while silver as an industrial metal apparently is growing scarce.
If I remember right it was the belief in a 16/1 gold/silver ratio that motivated the Hunt brothers to corner the market.

I wonder--if it will return to 16/1 will it now be gold that loses. $80 gold anyone?

I think your timetable is a little too patient. My charts say that we should be seeing a major top within 10 weeks.
That top could be anywhere between 6.50 and 8.00. I wouldn't waste any time taking the plunge.

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 05 1997 02:24 - ID#24140)
gold/silver ratio
Crusty calling Salty - Come in Salty.

Email is - data for 1582 is crucial!!!

Only kidding salty.

But my own data stops 1985 - If I can fill gap this Ill send to you.

Maybe some old guy has numbers prior to 1550 - have you got

Bernatz's email address.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 02:26 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

This is getting ridiculous!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 02:35 - ID#284255)
Charts and info
Gold chart showing decline:
1984 compared to 1997

Gold data - Daily OHLC Comex future price
1977 to 1997 - zipped ascii file

Avid chatter
of the top 30 chaebol, 25 have debt to equity ratios of more than three-to-one, and ten of more than five -to one - vs the one-to-one in an ordinary ecomomy - eight belly up, so far - your taxes may save the rest - half of your money will go to the korean mafia

fundamental news, fwiw: the south korean trade unions have said they will not support imf conditions and will strike. don't know how powerful they really are, though.

I saw a picture in the local paper today showing s.koreans protesting to shut the mkt down so there would be no further losses.
-I was see who would nibble... GOLD $200 before year end???

-I guess that means yes...I see a $280 bounce then a contiuned $200.

-Seriousy,I know you've said that several times.Are you thinking of shorting gold.$290 to $200,easy money.

-so does this mean the end of gold as a hedge, forever. some on the tube think that the us dollar will supplant gold as the hedge of choice.

-explosive short covering rally possible - wouldn't be short for all the tea in humletville - you can get killed in your sleep

-Short covering Yes, this is true, that will happend at $280... Then we drop again... Only Gold lovers are bitting at it.. When it was $800 everyone wanted it...

-that is probably correct. US$ will supplant gold for the near term....until we try to inflate the money supply...which may be after a little taste of deflation. As long as we are in a deflationary environment the dollar will be better than gold. Gold should have some bounce at $284- 285 that was the low since $850. the 284.25 low came in 1985. After bounce, we will probably see something under $200 later down the road.

-Well,I wish I knew where gold will bottom, didn't think it would get this low, just don't forget governments can cut down a tree worth $1000 and turn it into millions.They have been doing it for a long time.

-There is a lot of people who wished the same... But $200 seems likely, near term...Once it pops at $280 and then doesn't hold it will really dumble.. So if I were a Gold trader, I would short it on that bounce..

-gold may be being converted into desperately needed cash - when that runs out - they may desperately need their gold back

(Fri Dec 05 1997 02:44 - ID#255284)
What did I say about the Spanish Armada and the end of the world in 1588?

One slow moving freight train heading in your direction ( I think - just lost my entire mail folder? )


(Fri Dec 05 1997 03:00 - ID#255284)
OK, btw are you related to tbill, tpher, or t'hee?
you invited correction, the lowest Ag/Au ratio I have collected is 10.42 between 1601 and 1603, that was in the days of real price stablility, the ratio could sit at one number for decades -- it was 10.64 from 1550-1589--- before some bellicose or dissolute monarch had to pay for war or lechery by debauching the currency.

them were the days. not

it is a good day to smell the roses,


(Fri Dec 05 1997 03:12 - ID#393224)
Aussie gold shares
Aussies must be a bit more perceptive than Yanks. Sorry to see your XAU pretending to be Captain Nemo on the Nautilus. Our Aussie gold shares were looking for giant squid on the bottom a couple of weeks ago. What was today's reaction to the big drop in the yeller stuff?? Not much. Normandy even. WMC even. Resolute even.Lihir down 2 cents. Acacia, MIM etc. not much movement. Gold 280 was in our shares two weeks ago. You XAU'ers should watch Aussie gold shares so's you'll know what to do two weeks ahead of time. The quality gold shares down here are being accumulated by DEEP pockets. Gold 200 my ass!!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 03:27 - ID#255284)
my dog has fleas
You old dog, where do I get input on daily trading of Aussie gold shares? this darn't climate's making me itchy to look again at taking pm equities.
sharefin@soup says no on-line option quotes, but there must be daily quotes somewhere. I get Aussie equities in local papers, but the options must be somewhere -- tacked on a dunny wall? I dunno.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 03:55 - ID#401460)
I opened my mail a little while ago, Homestake 3rd qtr report.


They have purchased puts option contracts for 900,000 ozs. @ a floor price of $326/oz.:
And, They also have purchased call option contracts for 900,000 ozs. @ $336/oz. All on Homestake's 1998 gold production.

HM's cash cost of production $234/oz.

They seem to have cash and do not appear to be to worried and even implying growth and acquisition.

Remember the info in these reports is old.

Rumors may be true.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 04:07 - ID#393224)
Auroptious, me mate, options are the quickest way to the poor house I know. I trade em now and then and have done well this year 'caus I follow two rools ( as in fools ) . 1 ) Most people lose money on options 'caus their expectations and market reality are diametrically opposed --SO if you're gonna buy options--make sure they're not too far out of the money AND 2 ) Buy em when noone ( see,I must be ANOTHER ) wants em. Aussie SPI puts were going for a song when the market hit it's highs. On mini- ( jump out of the window on the 14th floor ) crash day, they sextupled in price. Those derivatives brokers ain't dumb. The odds are lousy.

Blue-sky mining shares, however, are another story. There are so many wanna-be-rich-quick suckers out there that you can flog a hole in the ground for big bickies. You do have to follow the insiders AND ALWAYS sell too early.

I use these guys. Back soon. The dogs are hungry. Gonna look for central bankers on the golf course.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 05:19 - ID#393224)
3 'roos, no central bankers. Danged 'roos are getting used to us -- don't hop away until we're about 10 m away.

So you wanna trade Aussie gold shares.

1 ) Sign up with Parklane or similar--as per previous post.
2 ) You can log on @10:00am East Coast Aussie time-- live quotes will be over the startup backlog @10:10--10:15.
3 ) Always good to check 30 biggest volumes, percentage gainers early.
4 ) You can have as many shares as you like in a "portfolio" and get up to date 'sales' or 'quotes' + volume etc.
5 ) daily or weekly charts take @a minute ( these can be on a watch list-ala sharefin ) .
6 ) I try to buy on bad news down days and sell on good news up days.
7 ) There are hundreds of very saavy traders out there doing the same thing. Many brokers etc. have access to info a few seconds before you will.
8 ) You must use the "depth" and "trades" screens to see exactly what is happening on a given share.
9 ) Don't quibble over a cent,get in quick once you have made a decision + 100 other rules you will learn very expensively.

After losing 30-40k you should find your feet and start making money.

OR you could ignore all of the above and just buy yourself some Normandy ( NDY ) ,Lihir ( LHG ) ,Acacia ( AAA ) ,Resolute ( RSG ) ,MtIsa ( MIM ) and Western Mining Corp ( WMC ) at today's prices and you will have the bargains of the decade. Just sit and hold. In a couple of years you can either join me at my beach hut wearing rags or meet me at the Hilton for champagne cocktails ( the former would probably be more fun but the latter would mean our Kitco mates would be in gold 500+ heaven ) .

(Fri Dec 05 1997 05:42 - ID#26793)
Bad news for autoworkers outside Japan
The dollar rose to a five-and-a-half-year high against the yen amid concern over Japan's sluggish
economy and its ailing financial system, traders said. Bank of Japan Gov. Yasuo Matsushita told a
parliamentary lower house Finance Committee meeting that the nation's economic growth is
``decelerating further.'' If the slowdown continues, he said, Japan may not be able to manage
sustainable growth. The dollar rose as high as 129.90 yen, its highest since May 28, 1992, when it
traded for 130.30 yen. It was recently quoted at 129.75 yen, up from 129.38 yen in late New
York trading yesterday, and at 1.7724 marks, up from 1.7715 marks in New York.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 05:47 - ID#26793)
BOJ says recovery NOT self-sustainable (ie: we need outside help)

(Fri Dec 05 1997 05:53 - ID#26793)
Japan says zero growth best it can do. IMF says not good enough.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 05:58 - ID#26793)
Japan says fundamentals NOT sound, expect more yen weakness

(Fri Dec 05 1997 06:01 - ID#26793)
OZ and NZ dollars headed lower

(Fri Dec 05 1997 06:08 - ID#26793)
Rubin speaks about China banking problems

(Fri Dec 05 1997 06:12 - ID#26793)
Ex Fed Governor predicts US stocks to drop

(Fri Dec 05 1997 06:16 - ID#26793)
Fed officials optimistic in public speeches, gloomy in private talks

(Fri Dec 05 1997 06:23 - ID#26793)
Fired Russian official predicts fragmentation of centralized power

(Fri Dec 05 1997 06:29 - ID#26793)
Iraq and South African nuclear weapon news

(Fri Dec 05 1997 06:30 - ID#39845)
an oldie but a goodie
Gold's lack of lustre is unlikely to be more than just a passing phase


From Mr A.E. Brown.


The recent decision of some governments to unload
their gold bullion reserves should be seen for what it
is - a cosmetic exercise to meet the Maastricht
budgetary criteria. It is an undesirable move since it
by-passes the intention of Maastricht to assure long-term budgetary discipline.
And it is another blow to the role of gold in international finance.
However, it is quite premature to rule out an important and, possibly, once again, predominant role for gold. The lessons of 3,000 years of history should not be jettisoned. For most of civilisation's history there was a single currency - it was silver. However, gold played a role from the earliest times. It took over the main role with the discovery of large deposits in the 19th century. In the early years of this century gold coins circulated in most of the world. Paper money was convertible to gold on demand. My father, before the first world
war, travelled internationally with gold sovereigns in his pocket. National currencies were linked to gold.
There was a single world currency called by different names. A US dollar was defined as 23.22 grains of pure gold. A British pound was defined as 113 grains of pure gold. The gold standard functioned throughout the world. It provided an automatic adjustment system, preventing countries from running large and persistent deficits or surpluses. The fiscal discipline which it imposed on governments proved too harsh in the great depression of the 1930s and the gold standard was abandoned.
None of the attempts to replace it by international agreement in the 50 years since the second world war has proved satisfactory. They have all been dominated by a US policy consistently aimed at replacing gold by the US dollar. The dollar, after all, is just another national currency subject to government manipulation. There were crises in the 1960s and a noted upheaval in 1971 when President Nixon suspended the US undertaking to convert dollars into gold ( established in 1934 ) . The dollar was devalued by 10 per cent. The dollar was devalued a second time in February 1973 by a further 10 per cent.
The US is, for the time being, the only superpower. It has a commanding position in all aspects of world affairs, and it is natural that it will seek to profit from its situation.
We should bear in mind that the dollar is unlikely to be forever almighty. Gold is incorruptible and its loss of lustre is likely to be a passing phase. Do we really want the Euro to be tied to the dollar?
A.E. Brown,
Calle el Sol 6, Apt.1,
Puerto Santiago,
38683, Los Gigantes,
P.O Box 27,

Taken from

(Fri Dec 05 1997 06:45 - ID#30116)
gold up?
What' this? Gold is up this morning? Must be a mistake.....

(Fri Dec 05 1997 06:50 - ID#286199)
Silver lining to dark clouds
December 5, 1997
Silver Surges on Strength In Supply-Demand Status


LONDON -- Gold may be in the
doghouse, but silver is soaring like a

Since midsummer, gold has tumbled
10%, to a 12-year low of $288 a troy
ounce here Thursday. Silver, in contrast,
has surged by 24% to $5.29 a troy

"Demand for both gold and silver is
good; it's just that gold is bugged by
central-bank, speculator and producer
supplies," says Colin Griffith, head of
precious metals at Standard Bank
London, a unit of Standard Bank
Investment Corp. in South Africa. He and
several other precious-metals dealers
believe that silver will keep going up
and could easily exceed $6 an ounce in
the first quarter of next year, particularly
if gold stabilizes.

"Silver's responding to strong
supply/demand fundamentals," says Ian
Lamont, a London analyst at Canadian
brokers Yorkton Securities Inc. "Its
outlook is the most positive since 1980."

That was the year in which Bunker Hunt,
a Texas oil tycoon, boosted silver
quotes to all-time highs around $50,
leaving the market with a huge
stockpile, a burden for years, analysts

Such is the improvement in the
supply/demand balance that now a
syndicate of investors, believed to be in
the U.S., has begun buying silver,
dealers say. Commodity and fund
managers have followed, taking the view
that there will be a shortage of silver
well into 1998. The gold-silver price
ratio, a tool of the trade, thus tumbled
to 54 from around 80 a year ago.

Soaring orders from the photographic,
jewelry and silverware industries have
boosted global silver demand in the past
few years, says CPM Group, a New York
precious-metals consultancy. The metal
is particularly popular in India and
Mexico, it says, estimating that
consumption could rise by about 3% to
around 730 million ounces this year, or
160 million ounces above supplies.

Moreover, demand began to exceed
mined and recycled silver from 1990
onward, and the accumulated supply
deficit since then is now around one
billion ounces, the firm says. This means
that there's been a massive drawdown in

Despite market enthusiasm, some
dealers caution that demand from Japan,
Thailand and other Asian nations won't
meet expectations. Holders there will
unload metal if the price surges, they

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:01 - ID#316193)
Central Bankers -- You need to "think"...
Just start buying gold reserves. It will do wonders for your currency!!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:02 - ID#390214)
South Africa gold mining news



Mineworkers general secretary

Kgalema Motlhanthe said on

Thursday that a continuation in

the decline of the gold price

could see as many as 100 000

of SA's 195 000 gold miners

lose their jobs.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:03 - ID#390214)
South Africa gold mining news


Company late on Thursday

fired 2 000 workers after they

ignored a management

ultimatum to return to work.

More than 3 7000 workers

embarked on an illegal strike in

support of 23 colleagues who

were fired as "instigators of the

first round of the illegal strike".

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:05 - ID#390214)
South Africa gold mining news (repost)



Mineworkers general secretary

Kgalema Motlhanthe said on

Thursday that a continuation in

the decline of the gold price

could see as many as 100 000

of SA's 195 000 gold miners

lose their jobs.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:07 - ID#390214)
South Africa gold mining news (trying to link)

Mineworkers general secretary

Kgalema Motlhanthe said on

Thursday that a continuation in

the decline of the gold price

could see as many as 100 000

of SA's 195 000 gold miners

lose their jobs.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:10 - ID#413109)
OK, I think I figured it out, and it wasn't that difficult, you see the Disney comes from Walt Disney, and the John was one of his cartoon creations which he took with him to the grave, as he realized the humor
might be offensive.
So when John tried to offend some survivors of the Holocaust period, it was not intended that way, he was just gathering information. All in good fun.
Afterwards when he remarked in another post -"Also not anxious to run gauntlet of some on this site who seem to desire to inhibit/control/limit any dialogue this subject", this too was probably intended to offend some in a comic way. I suppose I just didn't see the humor in it all, and I always thought I had a good sense of humor.

cool lurk
(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:27 - ID#147100)
Two hundred fourteen, two hundred fifteen er... two hundred seventeen...


All right, all right...geeze I'll forget where I was! Where's that darn phone...oh, there it is...

cool lurk
(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:27 - ID#147100)
Two hundred fourteen, two hundred fifteen er... two hundred seventeen...


All right, all right...geeze I'll forget where I was! Where's that darn phone...oh, there it is...

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:32 - ID#390214)
Thailand (unrest feared, Central Bank being sued for mismanagement)
Police have been put on standby to support the Financial

Restructuring Agency which is set to start taking control of some

of the suspended 58 finance companies on Monday.

The move follows implementation of the start of the government's

finance reform measures which the authorities believe may upset

affected employees and lead to trouble.

The suspended companies have made a final bitter attack on the

Bank of Thailand with Dynamic Eastern ( 1991 ) Finance Co

yesterday filing a lawsuit against the bank and the Finance

Ministry for compensation of at least 5,446 million baht for being


(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:34 - ID#36965)
Joke of the Day
With derivatives being hot these days, i. e. with notes securted by options on futures on gold or the like it is only natural that derivative dogs should be bread and I am posting some of the more popular breeds. We may need this before the day is out.

For all you dog lovers out there, here are some of the lessor known breeds
that are being bred in different parts of the United States,

Crossbeed Dogs:

Pointer + Setter = Poinsetter, a traditional Christmas pet

Kerry Blue Terrier + Skye Terrier = Blue Skye, a dog for visionaries

Great Pyrenees + Dachshund = Pyradachs, a puzzling breed

Pekingnese + Lhasa Apso = Peekasso, an abstract dog

Irish Water Spaniel + English Springer Spaniel = Irish Springer, a dog fresh
and clean as a whistle

Labrador Retriever + Curly Coated Retriever = Lab CoatRetriever, the choice
of research scientists

Newfoundland + Basset Hound = Newfound Asset Hound, a dog for financial

Terrier + Bulldog = Terribull, a dog that makes awful mistakes

Bloodhound + Labrador = Blabador, a dog that barks incessantly

Malamute + Pointer = Moot Point, owned by....oh, well, it doesn't matter

Collie + Malamute = Commute, a dog that travels to work

Deerhound + Terrier = Derriere, a dog that's true to the end

Bull Terrier + Shitzu = Bullshitz, a gregarious but unreliable breed

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:34 - ID#284255)
Bourse Data for trading Aussie shares.
Bourse Data offers a service similiar to Parklane but with a few more features.
I have used this service for the last year and found it good.
They offer live time quotes ( bid/ask/depth ) , live time charts and news
They also provide live time data for options.
You can access their live services for $5 per hour.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:41 - ID#26793)
U.S. yield curve poised to invert

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:46 - ID#390214)
Japan (Second Nonbank to go bankrupt, most creditors =fin. inst. 200bn yen)
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Takugin Finance Service Co. on Friday afternoon

filed for special liquidation with the Sapporo District Court, the Nihon

Keizai Shimbun reported Friday. The nonbank affiliate of failed

Hokkaido Takushoku Bank carries debts of 200 billion yen.

It is the second nonbank institution affiliated with Hokkaido Takushoku

to go under, following the bankruptcy last month of Takugin Mortgage

Acceptance Corp.

Takugin Finance heavily extended loans to the real estate sector in the

late 1980s, causing its bad debt load to balloon after the bubble

economy collapsed in the early 1990s.

Before Hokkaido Takushoku's failure, the company had been trying to

rehabilitate itself with assistance from the parent. Most creditors are

financial institutions.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:51 - ID#390214)
Japan (Nikkei up on
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Tokyo share prices rebounded Friday after three

days of declines on buying by public fund related investors. Yasuda

Trust & Banking's announcement that they have devised a restructuring

plan positively affected the market. The Nikkei Stock Average closed

the session at 16,424.48, up 117.69 points from Thursday.

The Nikkei index opened higher on news that Yasuda Trust & Banking

will withdraw from overseas operations, rising to just below 16,600.

After falling back on profit taking, the index again rebounded toward the

morning close. The afternoon session opened with selling of financial

issues, before closing higher.

TOPIX, covering all issues on the first session of the Tokyo Stock

Exchange, rose 7.69 points to 1,236.43. The Nikkei December futures

contract on the Osaka Securities Exchange closed at 16,460, up 70


"The index will stay in the 16,000 to 17,000 range. However, future

market moves are dependent on the government's policy to boost the

financial markets," said Takao Endo, senior managing director at

Dai-Ichi Kangyo Asahi Asset Management Co.

"Yasuda Trust & Banking's announcement provided incentive for

investors, and buying by public funds related investors also helped boost

the market," said Yasuo Ueki, general manager at Nikko Securities Co.

Losers outnumbered gainers 582 to 509, with 173 unchanged.

An estimated 482 million shares changed hands on the first section of the

TSE, compared with 391.16 million shares Thursday.

Fishery, pulp & paper and ship building were major losers, with

transport and rubber advancing.

The three heaviest-traded issues were Yamaichi Securities, Yasuda

Trust & Banking and Daiwa Securities.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:53 - ID#36965)
The frighening thing about the East having its woes is that Japan and probably the other Oriental countries to a lesser extent own a big chunk of the USA. Well, what is going to happen if things fall out of bed there? I would forsee possible liquidation of USA holding which in turn will play havoc on our markets and the cycle continues. I'm not sure how this would play out but it would impact USA stocks I would think as well as land and building prices. There's a lot of unknowns that we will now with crystal clarity after the events have transpired. I was watching the Kennedy Years and ABC last night. Very revealing. I suspect that we are all indeed much like mushrooms, fed a lot of BS and kept in the dark.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:54 - ID#390214)
Former Fed governor predicts Wall Street correction
WASHINGTON ( December 4, 1997 11:41 p.m. EST ) - The

U.S. stock market is headed for a correction as competition sparked by

Asia's monetary crisis forces American firms to slash prices, former

Federal Reserve governor Lawrence Lindsey predicted on Thursday.

"The credit crunch that is now occurring in Asia is forcing the liquidation of

inventories and output at any kind of price that can be gotten on the

market," Lindsey said at a panel discussion sponsored by the American

Enterprise Institute.

Lindsey, who is now a resident scholar at the institute, said that profits

would suffer in such an environment of downward pressure on prices.

"It is difficult for me to see how the profit margins, and in particular the

growth of profit margins that are now built into equity prices, will be

sustained," he said.

Many experts have been predicting that the Asian financial crisis would

curb U.S. growth by depressing exports to that region. A number of them

have also noted that the potential impact is limited since nearly 90 percent

of the goods produced in the United States are sold here.

But Lindsey disagreed, saying that slower U.S. growth would result from

price declines and the resulting stock market slide, rather than from

weakened exports.

Lindsey cautioned that such developments should not necessarily be seen

as a signal to pour money into bonds, because attempts to remedy the

deflation scenario could eventually give way to inflation.

"It's hard for me to see governments being so masochistic as to continue

deflationary policies," Lindsey said, adding that governments would

ultimately respond by printing currency.

"That's not the kind of environment under which I would want to lend to

anyone -- including Uncle Sam -- at 6 percent," Lindsey said, referring to

the yield on the benchmark U.S. 30-year Treasury bond.

The former Fed official also said attempts by Japanese monetary

authorities to prevent a weakening in the yen were unworkable, given the

need to provide liquidity in the event of failures of financial institutions.

"It is hard to see how you can justify an unchanged exchange rate in a

situation in which currency is being created so rapidly," Lindsey said.

"How will they be able to defend the yen? It will only be by liquidating U.S.

bond holdings."

Despite his concerns about the effects of the Asian crisis on other

countries, Lindsey criticized the International Monetary Fund for

masterminding a record $57 billion bailout package for South Korea.

He said the IMF efforts, however well-intentioned, were thwarting the

natural process of transferring ownership of assets from "financially weak

hands" to "financially strong hands." That process holds the key to

restoring Asia's economic health in the long run, he said.

"It is letting South Korean chip manufacturers -- and the Korea government

who encouraged them in expanding in an already flooded market -- to

continue their ownership," Lindsey said, adding that it would be sensible to

allow those who made foolish decisions pay for them by being forced to

declare bankruptcy.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 07:59 - ID#364147)
The all important Employment report is out in less than a half hour---consensus estimate is 200,000 jobs created....and am I hallucinating ( Dec. gold UP 1.90 @ 290.40 )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:02 - ID#225283)

Did you notice that housing starts fell in yesterdays report...and AG positive comments did not do much to move things up. Do you feel the jobs report will move the market much?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:05 - ID#364147)
200,000 was WSJ consensus est....CNBC says 215,000 and in that report a key # is the average hourly earnings ( CNBC estimates it @ + .3%

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:09 - ID#364147)
@ PrivateInvestor
Well,it always has the chnnce to as it has been THE statistic with market-moving potential for the last couple of years...I remember when it used to be the trade #'s or the CPI....Obviously if it misses the est's by much markets will be volatile.....

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:13 - ID#426220)
D.A. ( gold.lending ) & Kahunna & German Translators: YOUR COMMENTS --
Should the companies go belly up without having repaid their ( GOLD ) loans, some bullion banks are going to find themselves on line with other creditors. They will then have to go to the open market to buy gold to return to the central banks. And ...when it comes time to repay or provide the gold for delivery isn't someone gonna take a bath? I would like to complement both your astute observations with the following.

Over a month ago GOLD-EAGLE reported the Confession of the Bundesbank that it HAD BEEN MAKING GOLD LOANS FOR SOME TIME. In our comment we called special attention to a scathing critique of Central Bank Gold lending practices. The report was compiled by Ted Butler.

Mr. Butlers study, which rings with logic and clarity in emphatically stating the GOLD LENDING PRACTICE RAMIFICATIONS BY CENTRAL BANKS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE YELLOW METAL TO SOAR IN VALUE.

When Central Banks awake from their stupor & stop giving away their GOLD for free, supply side of metal fundamentals will develop an immediate vacuum & Gold prices will SOAR:

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:16 - ID#364147)
Ain't wind grrrrreat! But prefer solar ( passive ) as a source of alternative energy for my own homes~~~~~~~~~~If the Nova Scotian gov'ment had any brains ( which they don't!!! ) they would look into windmill farms in the Cheticamp area as it is one of the windiest places on the face of the earth but instead they continue to push high sulpher coal as a source to produce electricity ( called living in the 'past' the 'dark ages'....

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:29 - ID#426220)
Further to my comment regarding Germanys Central Bank ( Bundesbank ) Gold Lending practices, I feel it very relevant to comment on Ted Butlers activities and expertise on the subject. In early April this year Ted Butler penned a monumental letter, which he sent to none other than:

.....The Honorable Alan Greenspan
.....Chairman of the Board of Governors
.....Federal Reserve Board

.....The Honorable Robert E. Rubin
.....Secretary of the Treasury
.....Washington, DC

His astute analysis is as astounding as it is enlightening about the adverse and dire ramifications of the dangerous and financially stupid Central Bank practice of Gold Loans. It literally rings with logic and clarity... and may be seen in its entirety at:

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:30 - ID#364147)
And the 'real' number of nonfarm jobs created is 404,000 ( watch the fuk out!! ) bond selling off!!!!!!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:31 - ID#364147)
S+P futures down 6.60.....7.40.......7.90......8.40.. ( get the picture )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:32 - ID#217338)
Look at it.
Reify: The top of your head is showing.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:33 - ID#364147)
Average hourly earnings up .6% ( estimated @ .3% ) S+P futures down 10.00

cool lurk
(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:33 - ID#147100)
That's two hundred fourteen, two hundred fifteen er...two hundred seventeen...


Okay...Okay...geeze, I'll forget where I was...where's that darn phone!


Ah, Hellloooo.

Ms. Cool Lurk?


My name is Don Kudlow of AMERICAN SKINUMYOUA SECURITIES, calling from New York City...How are you today?

Well I'm doin' a little better today, thank you, you know my dear dearly departed handsome son, STUDIO.R....

Maam, we were shocked to hear about your son...I know this a terrible time for you...excuse, me just a moment...Hey!!! what the hell's goin' on with gold in London...tell that damn Myron Can'ttell to tank it on the morning show or I'll kick his butt so hard.... I'm sorry maam...where was I?

Dom, you were talking about my dear clever son, STUDIO.R...

Oh yes, well maam, I believe we have a mutual fund, I mean friend, Alan Greenspan, and he tells me you're needing some advice on where to put the money he gave you for your son's gold...

Oh, I do like Mr. Greasecan...I think he's kinda' sexy in a peculiar way and Whooaaa, Did you say you're from NEW...YORK...CITY?

Yes maam, the BIG APPLE!

Well I don't care for apples that much, bananas are my favorite...but, isn't that where they make that PEECANTE SAUUCE! Whew boy..that's good stuff...Dom, could you get me some of that pecantee? It's hard to find down here in Oklahoma.

Yes maam, I'll get you some but it's actually made in San Antonio, Texas...

Well in that case, just ferget it....those damn Texans might try to poison me!

Okay... why I was calling, maam, is that we have a new stock issue coming out next Tuesday and frankly, maam, it's going to go through the roof! It's a high tech company that has developed a vanilla wafer that contains an edible micro-chip that when eaten drifts to the brain and lodges there.

Damn! You've got to be puttin' me on...

No, maam, the vanilla wafer chip contains a celluar phone circuit that will put signals into the brain which tells the person when to buy more of this stock and for example...when to sell gold.

No kiddin'!

Two days after the stock opens, we'll hit those circuits...and baaam!
these folks will kick that stock straight up and clobber that gold.
How about that!

Dom, I could put some of those wafers in my banana puddin' that I'm so famous for...and we'll get these Okies a buyin' that stock!

Great, Ms. Cool Lurk. Now how much money do you have?

Well, Dom, I don't have much cash. But, I do have quite a few of these United States of American Tease-Bills. Would they be okay?

Damn! that wiley Greenspan....Oh, I'm truly sorry, Ms. Cool Lurk...What rate are they?

Well sir, they say 5.99%. What's that mean?

Maam, that means they're not going to be worth much real soon. You better send those to me overnight.

Okee-doke, but I need to hang on to a couple of them 'cause I'm goin' to Las Vegas! Viva...Las Vegas! My nephew, Joey Bonano, works at one of those clubs out there and he's taking me to see Elvis! Viva...Viva Las Vegas! Whew boy!

Maam, just send me those T-Bills...I can sell them to someone else somewhere... I may see you there in Vegas...I need to go there for some bidness myself!

Well that sounds like fun, Donny. I'll send those Tease-Bills today
and hope to see you there.

Maam, as soon as I get the bills I'll forward those Micron Wafers shares to you forthwith.

What'd you call me...a whaat witch!

NO,maam, forthwith....I'll send them to you directly.

Okay...have a nice day, Dom.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:34 - ID#284255)
Check out spz7 1 min charts.
They are dumping bigtime and it looks like they are having to fight for it.
SPZ7 down 13 handles in 5 minutes.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:36 - ID#364147)
@ Long Bond
Down 1+ 10/32~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Dollar soarin.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:37 - ID#364147)
Scroll down~~~~~~~

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:43 - ID#174103)
Gold Lease rates
It appears my last comment was toasted by the software. But I did find the gold lease rates on kitco at

I understand what lease rates are, but can anyone explain the "forward rates" and how they differ from the lease rates? My comment was that since 11/25, as gold bullion has tanked, the lease rates are up 30%. If gold bullion was plentiful, I would have expected them to head south. Does this mean that the market perceives a risk for an upside swing on prices?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:46 - ID#413109)

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:50 - ID#364147)
@ Seakayaking
BBL duuudes----the sun is out and the ocean bekons~~~~~~~~~~

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:55 - ID#225283)
Has gold made a bottom?

Would you care to name the next central bank that will admit to a forgotten gold sale?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:57 - ID#225283)
Gold market makers preparation of the marketplace

My gut feeling is that the boys at the LBMA are only attempting to stabilize the markets prior to the IMF dumping vast amounts of GOLD!

Mike Stewart
(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:58 - ID#270253)
"The Bottom" is near (or is it here)
My McClellan Summation index for Toronto mining issues is at -1913 and dropping. These are bear market bottom levels and any turn up from here will complete this downward move in the Summation Index. Levels below -2000 are VERY rare on all markets analysed. THIS IS NOT TO BE IGNORED. Huge gains have been made from previous -2000 level in the general markets. This is the first one I have tracked for the mining issues since I only have data for four years.

I have a heavy volume indicator, which is useful at short term tops/bottoms and it kicked in yesterday.

I look at the 65 day Rate of Change in gold relative to the price 65 days ago. It is at an extreme level.

I compare the Toronto Gold Index to the price of gold, and then smooth it statistically, then create an oscillator relative to a moving average, we are bottoming out at an extreme low level as well.
Do not read this paragraph too many times or you will get dizzy.

This is a time for the brave. The bottom is somewhere around there and I am not going to try to pick it off precisely. It could have been yesterday, or it could be in two weeks. It won't matter a year from now.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 08:59 - ID#284255)
What's he going to do?
Gotcha Ted
I hadn't scrolled before posting.
Maybe still some life in my Dec puts?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:13 - ID#7568)

Forward rates = LIBOR - lease rate

LIBOR = london interbank overnight rate, the bank cost of borrowing money.

Forward price = Spot + Spot * Forward Rate * Time

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:13 - ID#284255)
Is this the reversal - equities down - gold up?
up $2.60

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:14 - ID#284255)
DBC info
08:30 PAYROLLS UP 404,000 IN NOV.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:14 - ID#225283)
Any Predictions on Golds close today

Comments please.....

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:15 - ID#26793)
FLASH! Earthquake 7.7 Kamchatka, Russia, north of Japan

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:16 - ID#344308)
earthquake strikes russia..........

possible tsunamis in coastal areas.........

get to high ground.................................

paper-tsunami inbound.......................................

26 days or less and counting..........................................


(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:18 - ID#344308)
shoulda known better than to 'try' to scoop

the DON!

!; )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:23 - ID#328159)
That Kamchatka Earthquake: Tsunami warning for Japan
A spokesman for Japan's Meteorological Agency said that a ``tsunami'' or tidal wave warning had been issued for the Japanese Pacific coast, opposite the Russian region, from northernmost Hokkaido to the Izu Peninsula, southwest of Tokyo.

Japan reports big earthquake in Russian far east

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:24 - ID#427357)
D.A. ( gold.lending ) & Kahunna: YOUR COMMENTS --
Should the companies go belly up without having repaid their ( GOLD ) loans, some bullion banks are going to find themselves on line with other creditors. They will then have to go to the open market to buy gold to return to the central banks. And ...when it comes time to repay or provide the gold for delivery isn't someone gonna take a bath? I would like to complement both your astute observations with the following.

Over a month ago GOLD-EAGLE reported the Confession of the Bundesbank that it HAD BEEN MAKING GOLD LOANS FOR SOME TIME. In our comment we called special attention to a scathing critique of Central Bank Gold lending practices. The report was compiled by Ted Butler.

Mr. Butlers study, which rings with logic and clarity in emphatically stating the GOLD LENDING PRACTICE RAMIFICATIONS BY CENTRAL BANKS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE YELLOW METAL TO SOAR IN VALUE.

When Central Banks awake from their stupor & stop giving away their GOLD for free, supply side of metal fundamentals will develop an immediate vacuum & Gold prices will SOAR:

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:25 - ID#225283)
Gold price

Does any one have the current price.

Will it break 290?

Do you feel 287-285 was a historical key point?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:28 - ID#7568)

Today's news of accelerating wage inflation will be explained away. The story will go something like this:

Rapidly rising wage costs sent interest rates higher as investors pondered the possibility of inflation due the continuing tightness in labor markets. However, economists were quick to point out that employment is a lagging indicator and that the coming slowdown in growth due to the Asian turmoil will reduce growth in the US. The slowdown in export oriented industries will likely take the pressure off of wages as fearful Americans will be thankful to have any job at all.

The strength in the dollar, combined with weakness in commodity prices will keep a lid on inflation which is running at the lowest rate in 20 years. Former Fed Governor Wayne Angell, now an economist for Bear Stearns said, "With gold dropping to 20 year lows there is no need to worry about inflation. Bonds are still a great buy".

In other news, precious metals had what is known in the business as a 'dead cat bounce'. The bank of Somalia is expected to sell 12 ounces of gold and a pound and a half of silver which should drive prices lower again.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:28 - ID#31868)
7.6 earthquake, my understanding of this number is poor. Is this a huge number indicating a monster quake. And the tidal wave alert for Japan seems to be pretty scary.

How bad is this?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:31 - ID#7568)

This is a huge quake. Surf's up.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:33 - ID#31868)
Thanks. Those poor people. Good grief.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:34 - ID#225283)

I love it...

Ilvoe it.....

You should consider a second job as a financial comedy writer

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:35 - ID#201131)
DA I loved your article
May I suggest for your article that "the fed also stated that by continuing to sell gold and lease it that they can influence the press and investors at least till social security goes broke." Gold will probably still go down today because the rally so far is pretty bad. Maybe the stocks will go up though. bye

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:39 - ID#7568)

On the bright side, if a tidal wave wipes out a few hundred miles of coastline, the demand for construction will likely spark a rebound in the economy. There's nothing like a good natural disaster to get people motivated.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:39 - ID#284255)
Global reactions to chaos
Londons FTSE earlier up 70+ now down -3

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:45 - ID#31868)
CNBC puppets try to fluster Jim Rodgers with gnarly little yellow teeth
Jim Rodgers was trying to make a point and was thrown to the lemmings just a few minutes ago. He dared to speak about the three most powerful central banks stating that Japan and German banks were number one and the US third no matter how you cut the cake.

The lemmings became unruly, threw a prudential puppet at him but Jim held his ground and brushed the puppet and lemmings back. As usual they were speaking at high velocity and had to stop and let their teeth cool down. Jim then resumed in his usual calm manner.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:46 - ID#201131)
Vronskey Watch Pegasus
AS for the gold loan question Pegasus is in discussions with their lenders and they have a lot of forward sales. As I have stated before on this board this company is going to test who owns the proceeds of the gold sales they have made because they shut down the mines that they thought would produce the gold to pay back the loans. Stay tuned.
Somebody is screwed with this transaction. My guess is that it is the bank that loaned PGU the gold bye

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:49 - ID#225283)
Near east earth shakes

the 7.7 was one of before and two after check out near real time data

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:51 - ID#328159)
Earthquake and Tsunami Information
The Kamchatka quake, in the range 7.3-8.9 is in the worst "Catastrophic" range of intensity;

A tsunami is a series of very long wavelength ocean waves caused by the

sudden displacement of water by earthquakes, landslides, or submarine

slumps. Ordinarily, tsunamis are produced only by earthquakes exceeding

magnitude 7.5. In the open ocean, tsunami waves travel at speeds of

600-800 kilometers/hour, but their wave heights are usually only a few


As they approach shallow water near a coast, tsunami waves

travel more slowly, but their wave heights can increase to many meters,

and thus they can become very destructive. It is not until the waves

have reached the shallow water that it is possible to see how bad it is.

Geology and Earthquake Impact

Earthquake Info & Links

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:51 - ID#225283)
Near east earth shakes

the 7.7 was one of before and two after check out near real time data

(Fri Dec 05 1997 09:57 - ID#225283)

Thank you for your JR review I missed while posting about the near easr shake up.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:00 - ID#295111)
Jewis Comments and Nazi Gold
To Tzadeak+/Spock: My apologies. I cannot prove what I said, but is only an opinion. But nevertheless, that comment should not have been made here. It would have been better to cut-up central bankers as a group.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:00 - ID#373346)
hugo and aurator
hugo, thanks for your comments. I see your point
that the s/g ratio is a non-factor and that silver has
more industrial uses. But I still think that sentiment
in metals is dragging their price down. Both show
strong supply/demand fundamentals. If silver can
"buck the trend" of sentiment, it can only help gold.
I hope you're correct on your timetable assessment.

aurator: No relation to any of the spoken. My money
is in gold shares right now ( and have actually held up
well considering ) . Thanks for your information on the
s/g ratio.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:01 - ID#31868)
Hope you are feeling better. The lemmings and puppets really do go after Jim and try not to let him get one word in edge wise. They just hate anything but economic wonderland stuff.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:03 - ID#304163)
xau5 PGU
Plenty more in the same boat as PGU. It takes just ONE loan default to put a halt to this craziness. Look for a massive series of junior/medium producers defaults next few months--it will stuff the peripheral lenders something rotten.

CBs will find it increasingly harder to justify any further gold reserve mobilisation after the first default.

Would love to see numbers reflecting commercial banks exposure.

Christmas could be fun.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:07 - ID#427357)
Further to my comment regarding Germanys Central Bank ( Bundesbank ) Gold Lending practices, I feel it very relevant to comment on Ted Butlers activities and expertise on the subject. In early April this year Ted Butler penned a monumental letter, which he sent to none other than:

The Honorable Alan Greenspan

Chairman of the Board of Governors

Federal Reserve Board

The Honorable Robert E. Rubin

Secretary of the Treasury

Washington, DC

His astute analysis is as astounding as it is enlightening about the adverse and dire ramifications of the dangerous and financially stupid Central Bank practice of Gold Loans. It literally rings with logic and clarity... and may be seen in its entirety at:

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:10 - ID#24140)
Gold Production
To All

Wonders never cease-

I just got the following info faxed to me today.

It is a list of the top 6 gold producers with

corresponding tons of production.

South Africa 490

USA 330

Australia 300

Canada 160

China 150

Russia 150

I thought it might be helpful

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:11 - ID#285233)
tolerant1 - enjoyed your 9:45 very much. Very funny!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:12 - ID#333131)
Donald, if you're out there.
OK, now comes the reversal.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:15 - ID#427357)
Considering the traditional investments of these financial behemoths, we may quite imagine them sitting all day long watching over THEIR INVESTMENTS on this Intra-Day chart page - scroll to the bottom:

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:24 - ID#238422)
@John Disney
I am not bothered at all....
Thanks for putting my advise in your treasury, sounds fantactic..
Am I going to get any interest on it?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:24 - ID#225283)

Did you notice that the entire spin on CNBC has changed to a positive one in the last few minutes ....where did they find Hill from Brown Bros he was..........

"yada yada yada no inflation this is just great for stocks we will see enough production gains to balance this number out yada yada yada"

I wonder what the revised figures will say!!!

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:25 - ID#24140)
for whom the bell tolls - eh

Pablo to Robert Jordan

"I dont provoke"

Disney to Reify

"If you think the holocaust was funny, you have a really

twisted sense of humour"

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:27 - ID#24140)
No - no interest

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:28 - ID#285233)
Nazi Gold Comments
Just one more comment re.: the Nazi gold discussions from yesterday.

Most gypsies, over the centuries, lived a nomadic type of life across Europe, especially prior to WWII. As such, they owned no fixed estates, no bank accounts, moved from town to town in covered wagons. They were generally poor, however, whatever valuables they did have was in the form of gold jewlery and gold.
There is no question that per capita Gypsies owned more gold than other people in Europe. Since there are estimates of 4 million of them being exterminated, then we are talking about a lot of gold as well.
In my opinion, if there is a distribution of the "nazi gold" these people should be on top of this list, along with most of European countries whose treasuries were totally plundered when occupied by the Nazies.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:31 - ID#295111)
Bold Prediction
FYI, "Former Federal Reserve governor, Wayne Angell, a long time advocate of gold's value as a guide to monetary policy, was recently quoted forecasting a decline in the gold price to $222 an ounce"

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:31 - ID#28594)
D.A.@9:58, Sharfin, Tolerant1@all times
D.A.: Concise, Clever, Comedic and CORRECT!
Cordial thanks. We needed that!

Sharefin, re: Dec puts
In a market one mad, we can still belive
"It is wiser being good than bad
It is fitter being sane than mad."

Tolerant1, re: 7.6 "how bad?"
Bad enough to give one a SERIOUS case of religion...
Tolerant1@9:45--witty 'n wise
Jim Rogers is a favorite of mine too;
he doesn't speak 'Orwell-ese"

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:35 - ID#26793)
Hope you are right. at about 10:25 EST the ratio was at 28.22. The yesterday high was 28.29. No reason for stocks to be up except the maddness and delusions of crowds. Will be out for a couple of hours.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:39 - ID#31868)
Do you remember a show "Diver Dan" with all the players being puppets with the exception of Diver Dan. Baron Von Barracuda was a wooden puppet, wore a beret and monocle and smoked a cigarette underwater. Great stuff. The little pilot fish that would always warn Diver Dan that the evil Baron Von Barracuda was trying to take over the ocean again. Priceless stuff.

To me that is what CNBC is like. A puppet show. Jim Rodgers is one of the few who makes a guest appearance and tries to bring things back to reality. He has to be attacked by puppets and lemmings, but he does get paid handsomely, but he should, puppet drool and lemming hair are hell on one's dry cleaning bills.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:45 - ID#284255)
Risk is at its cheapest once more?

Buckets loads of FOLLY!!!!
Plentitudes of FRENZY!!!!
Total absence of FEAR????

Folly, Frenzy and Fear, those Careless are
The fates that mould our destinies, and shape
The grave dishonesties, deceits, that mar ........

The vision is seen only
In the deep quiet,
A gift from the spirit.

The masters teach us to be still.
The treasure is nurtured
In the soundless centre.
It is a great vanity
To seek beyond the self.

The afternoon delights become fascinating.
Todays could become one to behold.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:45 - ID#427357)

( Kenneth Courtis is chief economist and strategist for the Deutsche Bank Group in the Asia-Pacific )



The combined effect of sliding export profits, more bad debt, higher taxes, falling growth and weakening sentiment has been to put the Japanese stock and real estate markets under renewed pressure. Commercial property values have fallen 70% since the 1990 peak and 5% in the past six months. The Nikkei has plunged to the critical level of 16,000 to 17,000, at which the banks no longer meet their international capital requirements. Should the market drop any lower--and with no major change in policy, that is likely -- Japanese banks will have to liquidate international assets. Much of these are in the U.S. Treasury market. That could destabilize world bond markets just as growth in the U.S. and Europe early next year leaves authorities little choice but to raise interest rates.

In light of this Recent News, a re-read of the ORACLEs prophetic observations and ultimate consequences for the U.S.

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:45 - ID#287367)
Speaking of the madness and delusions of crowds, the stock markets are penny-ante compared to what's going on with gold. The so-called intelligentsia dishoarding their valuable assets and heritage ( gold ) for US Treasury paper! It's not a receipt for anything tangible! It's plainly and simply only PAPER backed by ... a promise to deliver MORE PAPER !!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:47 - ID#26793)
Sure, at 9:28 you are making fun of the 12 oz. Somalia sale and you "conveniently" forget to add in the 8 oz. sale by Nauru. An ounce here, an ounce there, pretty soon you are talking tsunami!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:52 - ID#238422)
John Disney
That is what I thought...
Thanks for this sad, but honest answer..

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:54 - ID#225283)

Yes I do remember the show very well ...I think I even own a LP soundtrack from the show stashed somewhere...

You are correctin your coparative is almost text book ....every week...What time is Jimmy sched to return on CNBC today with more pearls of sanity....a rare comodity these daze.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:54 - ID#201131)
Teds Dumb and Dumber article
ITs a good article. If I went up to my inlaws and said I am going to loan you my house and you can sell it as long as you agree to return a house just like it to me I wonder who would think that was a good idea? If you knew my inlaws you wouldnt. NOw ask Mark Twain what he thinks of gold miners. I rest my case.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:54 - ID#32078)
bond rates
With the long bond rate jumping to 6.16 early this morning, Jim Rogers said that we would not see 6.00 again. Meanwhile, several of the gold stocks made an early market jump following the possibility of inflation from the jobs report. I think that the turn in the rate up is the first of many signs that the gold bottom is in/near, and some gold stocks and the XAU must agree. However, the Jberg index is still diving and the London morning quote was down -2.30, so Europe doesn't agree, so we aren't there yet.

After Japan sees the 1 1/2% loss in their bonds overnight, I will be interested in their response. That's about a $4-5 Bil paper loss.

I'm always amused at how many optimistic talking heads refer to 'the best since 1973'. Do they remember how the market tanked in 1973? ( gold went up )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:57 - ID#225283)

Looks like gold is holding above $290

What new press release is being dreamedn up now?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 10:59 - ID#269409)
@ Sharefin...DOW
Man I'd be writin poetry too if I was holdin S&P Dec. PUTS right now....I tried to convert you Nick!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:02 - ID#22956)
Mooney Can't Post
He asked me to forward this for him:

Here is something I picked up from Global Commodities yesterday. Very

interesting that it is not just us at Kitco that have now become aware

of the the 'controlled' Gold market. :

"....The official maintained that with gold prices below $300 an

ounce that "not one gold mining company is profitable", ( Newmont

Mining Co Chairman Ronald Cambre ) . He added that there is a 20% supply

deficit that is currently being filled by central bank sales which means


a bottom comes when the central bank ( sic ) decide to stop selling an

asset that is

historically cheap! Economics discussions on gold like those offered by

Newmont Mining make it tougher to sell but still don't create the need


buy at current levels. We still think 285 is a rational bottom for gold.


question is, who is making the decision at these central banks to dump

assets at such cheap levels, bureaucracy at its worst... "

Maybe it's old news maybe not.....I am doing my Civic Mooney?? reply to some e-mails....been busy....


(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:03 - ID#269409)
@ Crytal Ball... Paper vs. Gold in deflation
WHo can explain to me, why Gold would be better than paper in a deflation? Why wouldn't dollars under the mattress be a better investment in such a scenario? It certainly would have been better in the great depression. Gold provided no security then, but dollars went way up relative to all commodities, real estate, etc. Money supply increases aren't all that huge when expressed as a percentage of GDP, in our expanded economy ( which today has the lowest unemployment rate in decades I might add....with REAL gains in wages recently also....sure doesn't look like deflation for the U.S. of A.... )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:07 - ID#31868)
I think he may be on only two days a week. I am unsure. He teaches at Columbia University.

An LP!!!!!! of the famed Diver Dan and Crew. Can you tape it if you can find it in the wood pile?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:15 - ID#287277)
Sharefins Plunge Team Giving Weekend Workshops?
From FT
"J.P. Morgan investigates charges that pair tried to manipulate FTSE 100
Index on Friday

...Fund managers have been bombarding the London Stock Exchange with complaints after a series of dealings pushed the FTSE 100 index down by 35 points in the last two minutes of trading.
The drop is alleged to have been caused by the two Morgan traders, who were managing a big FTSE 100 over-the-counter option position...they are said to have sold the corresponding basket of shares at a time when many funds had pulled their orders from the exchanges electronic order book.
The order mopped up orders left on the system prices a long way below the previous traded price...

Very foolish of them not to realize they have to push UP, and then there are no complaints...

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:20 - ID#263133)
Olie died in a fire and was burnt pretty bad and the morgue needed someone to I.D. the body. So his 2 friends, Sven and Lars, went down to try and identify the body.

Sven went in and the mortician pulled back the sheet and Sven said "Yaa,
he's burnt pretty bad. Roll him over." So the mortician rolled him over and Sven looked at his ass and said, "No, dat ain't Olie."

The mortician didn't say anything but thought that was kind of strange.

Then he brought Lars to I.D. the body and Lars took a look at him and said "Yaa, he's burnt real bad, roll him over." The mortician rolled him over and Lars looked down at his ass and said "No, dat ain't Olie."

The mortician said "How can you tell?"

Lars said "Well, Olie had 2 assholes."

"What? He had 2 assholes?" said the mortician.

"Yaa, everyone in town knew he had 2 assholes. Every time the three of us went to town everyone would say "Here comes Olie with dem 2 assholes!"

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:24 - ID#284255)
FTSE up 52 - quick recovery.
Patience, wait and see what unfolds.
They still have life.

And so will I, if they dissappear, in a puff of paper smoke.
After all, they are only numbers, in a computer.
Where do you think, they came from, in the first place.
Remember, you should only play, with what you can afford to lose.

Remember that every time a crash has occured,
The market is the most bullish.
Everyone ( almost ) gets totally caught out by surprise.
They are unpredictable,
And you won't know that it's coming 5 minutes before it happens.

Just imagine if it happened.
And it has before.
That is my true play - my true speculation.
The oportunity of a life time.

After the markets settle, then I can go back, to normal trading.
But not now - never.
I aim to ride this Tsunami.
With my insurance.

Put /call ratio's chart

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:24 - ID#269409)
SSRIF, SSC... Silver goin up!
Why are SSC and SSRIF down on a day when Silver continues it's strong rise dammit?! VERY tempted to buy SSRIF today...

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:28 - ID#269409)
@ SHarefin
OK Nick, but you better look at them U.S. economic fundamentals again before puttin ( no pun intended ) too much hope in those Puts! Maybe you need to get away from Down under for awhile and visit us... See how rosy things really are here, as the rest of the world deals with some shaky ups & downs. My strongest investor instincts have been screaming evaluations notwithstanding..and they say BIG things are around the corner...but a major crash in DOW not a part of it.....Full employment, no inflation, look at RJ's posts from yesterday, and DA's, I have to concur.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:31 - ID#22956)
I placed myself on the sidelines this morning. Ca-Ching$ There will be some profit taking and perhaps a small rally, no? From there....where?? Only the strong at heart should play the short game from now on.....imo.

How Low Can We Go?? Hep seems to think ( am I reading it correctly? ) that we are 'finding' a bottom. I respect this and will watch closely. I am Not convinced and think there is plenty of bottom left.....again....imo. ( disclaimers apply always ) . We will know the answers and sooooooooon!! examine the charts ( long term )


D.A. - I guess we are not 'on'.....haven't heard anything......where is my gambling buddy?

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:32 - ID#287367)
Welcome back, old friend! You are so eloquent this fine morning! You are not utilizing your talents to best advantage...You could be making plenty of greenbacks as a CNBC talking puppet head. You've done Eric Arthur Blair proud! You've certainly got the "Newspeak" down pat! "Newspeak" was designed to give the appearance of real content while actually allowing the authorities to successfully lie and obfuscate.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:33 - ID#31868)
Take a look at ASGMF or ASM in Canada, FSR.V or FSR in Canada, ABI.M or ABI in Canada, RSMI and don't forget METLF they are sitting on 60 million ounces of silver.

I just love silver and silver stocks.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:36 - ID#22956)
Thanks again Nick for the #'s. I am putting them to use right now.



(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:40 - ID#262398)
LGB, re: Your 11:03 post.
Nice to see you back. I've got to run so I'll need to make this quick and unedited. Deflation, as is inflation, is a global phenomenon. During these periods, he who has the cheapest prices, get the business. On a global scale, countries begin to compete with each other for the cheapest prices. The best way to gain an advantage over other competing
economies is to devaluate the currency. This has the effect of becoming a national discount, thus stimulating exports. When the devaluation occurs, the currency loosesground vs. gold.

With respect to you comment on dollars going up vs. commodities during the depression, The dollar was devalued in 1933 after the Gold had been confiscated. When this happened gold went from around $22 to $35/oz. The problem was, gold bullion had been confiscated from most Americans, the exceptions were the outlaws ( Sinclairs ) and they who held numismatic gold coins. Finally, one should expect the dollar to go up vs. other commodities because during a deflationary period, things get cheaper or cash becomes more valuable. Finally, it should be recognized that during a deflation, money becomes scarce and therefore increases in value, Gold is a form of money and therefore increases in value. Got to go, TGIF.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:43 - ID#7568)

I'm right here. What do you propose??

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:47 - ID#284255)
Back to school?
Those puts are paid for,
And I still have money in the bank for more.
You have not done your homework.
It doesn't get better than this - period.

Markets only ever crash from the euphoric zone.
Your comments on how good everything is,
Supports my perspective.
My mate EB's actions, lend support as well.

And in the off-chance, that we go to make new highs,
I'll be back doing the same.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:52 - ID#284255)
Who's manipulating
There is some of that going on today.
Dells chart during the first 15 minutes was revealing.

Seems like in each major exchange,
They try to out-do each other.
Who can be the most blatent,
But get away with it.

Avid chatter:
wonder if this has anything to do with that 21,000 oex call position taken yesterday.

someone wants/needs better prices to get out?

that was beautiful; let us get to the first level, then bounce..let's see if the money boys that they can exit gracefully after the surprise..

well whoever took that call position is probably planning to excercise as opposed to dumping. But what if it were actually a hedge to cover dumping of equities?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:55 - ID#320441)
there was a time...
On this hallowed forum when gold up $2 ( like now ) would have been an occasion for great rejoicing.... What happened??

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:55 - ID#269409)
@ Crytal, 11:03
Shame on you calling a biased media basher like me, a talking head Newsie! I just calls em as I see's em Crystal, no marriage to GoldBugism OR paperism, just a firm grip on reality. I've made a LOT of money oin the paper markets in the past few years. A lot of that "paper" money I have recently converted into tangible assets. Mortgage paydown on RE, big Silver purchases, etc.

But beyond my own finances, and as someone who remembers relatively "hard times" in the early 70's, I see more prosperity around me in this economy than I've ever seen in my lifetime, or seen in historical research. This is just a plain fact, people's bizarre Gloom and Doom fantasy's notwithstanding. When things actually DO get harsh someday, I'll be the first to aknowledge same, ( and hopefully take defensive measures well in advance ) . Meanwhile though, people who have cried "Gloom and Doom" re our U.S. economy and Equities market, for many many years, have only fooled themselves.... to the enormous detriment of their own bank accounts.

"Talking Head Newsie" indeed, how about someone rooted and grounded in reality instead of G&D fantasyland?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:56 - ID#427357)
SILVER LINING by The Astrological Investor
Analyst Mike Sheller asserts long-term speculators in bullion and mining stocks may be looking at the kind of opportunity right now that presents itself every several years in the heartbeat of the gold cycle. The last time he made a similar call, he was RIGHT ON THE MONEY in predicting the lows of Oil and Gas stocks in early 1994. Subsequently, hundreds of percent gains were made.

At this particular astrological moment, he says, We kind of feel the same way right now about gold and silver. He names his favorite stocks... which may rise to the stars ( pun intended ) :

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 05 1997 11:59 - ID#24140)
Gypsy Gold
For steady

You are right of course about the poor gypseys. They were trapped

with no friends in foreign countrys and no way out. All this

and a mouthfull of gold with everyone in the country broke and Hitler

in Power. Yes 4 million of them and not a peep out of anyone about it.

Four million at 1/2 oz each - 2 million oz.That runs into money.

Also 2 million poles.

Dont hold your breath on restitution for these guys. They have no

voice. I was going to mention this myself but I exercised RESTRAINT.

Another one of Reify's lousy jokes and its "no more Mr Nice Guy".

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:00 - ID#269409)
@ SHarefin...."Markets only crash from the Euphoric zone" GoldBugs & derivitives
Hmmm, that;s what they were saying when the DOW broke 2000 Nick, 400% ago! Glad I didn't listen then, glad I'm not listening now! I'm juts sorry I'm not in Magellan like I oughtta be! ( AT least I'm making some good "long" moolah with company stock ) .

AS to being in good shape by buying PUTS that will expire worthless, cause you have enough capital to buy more...This rationale eludes me. Should I be happy when I take the worlds worst investment losses in the worlds best economic times as long as I have some bucks left to play with? And why is it that Gold investors ( who I have assumed are the world's most conservative based on what we read here ) continue making incredibly risky 100% loss bets against the strongest, healthiest, economy of all time???

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:06 - ID#24140)
interest - how dare you ????
For oris

Regarding your treasured advice that you have graced me with - my

cup runneth over with happiness and new found wisdom - but still no

interest from the treasury

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:10 - ID#7568)

If all is as grand as you say, why don't you make the phone call to Fidelity?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:11 - ID#284255)
Who's singing?
It's not over till the fat lady sings.
And if you want to wait three years,
Till you take the cotton wool out of your ears
So you can hear her sing.
Fine by me.

It's not gloom and doom,
To have a different perspective.

I live in a lovely old queenslander ( 70 years old & 330 sq m )
And have a fine family around.
There are always heaps of children around,
To enjoy and share life with.
Currently we have 5 visitors from down south staying plus Dad.
And three kids sleeping over.
Plus my wife, two kids, a dog, a cat and the wildlife.
And this is almost normal.

Life is too full to worry about doom and gloom.
More fun to be had enjoying it.
It is rather too special - after all.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:12 - ID#26793)
BOJ Deputy heads to weekend BIS meeting. I wonder why?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:17 - ID#287277)
DERIVATIVES: Curiosity turns into Profits (that's one way of 'putting' it)
FT SURVEY, Private Banking
Wed Nov 26, 1997
Im behind in my reading

DERIVATIVES: Curiosity turns into Profits
Samer Iskandar
Derivatives have become omnipresent in everyday financial life

( selected passages )
Derivatives, once the domain of highly-specialized technical analysts, have gradually filtered through to almost every layer of banking.
...In the past few years...growing curiosity from individuals. And in spite of some bad publicity , such as the Barings debacle in 1995 ( THAT'S what it was--SDRer ) , the products that were once described as exotic or obscure finally entered the mainstream.

But the direct transactions by private investors are a relatively new phenomenon. Chase Manhattan, the US bank, says the use of derivatives by its private banking clients has roughly doubled every year in the past three years. Although this includes passive investment in funds managed by the bank, most clients nonetheless like to be involved in the decision-making process---60% in Europe and ALMOST 75% IN ASIA. ( Caps SDRer ) .

The market changed dramatically as yields fell, says Bernard Armstrong, vice-president investment advisory services at Chase Private Bank. Clients are now looking for higher yields. They also want more diversity.

There is more in the same vein....the rocket scientists have now been joined by the Beardstown Ladies! Oh my, oh my....

Dec puts looking better and better...

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:18 - ID#188244)
LGB- Puts are not ( or shouldn't be ) investments. They are insurance. The day my puts soar is probably the day my house loses value, or my job is at risk. Get the idea? One must look at their entire portfolio, including future earnings, and examine risk/return. As to your robust economy, it had better be- we added another 1 Trillion to the debt these last 4 years. Thats 5 Korean bailouts every year! That said, if you venture out of Silicon Valley for a while you may see a different economy.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:22 - ID#38970)
in Jo'Burg
Sunday 7 Dec is the anniversary of Pearl Harbour. Those who have received will understand.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:23 - ID#26793)
US employment figures cause raise in Mexican interest rate

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:25 - ID#22956)
LGB - I agree with D.A. What ARE you waiting for?? Get in there and make some money instead of waiting for this 'drop/correction' you have been talking about. in your words........ PUHLEEEEEEAAAAAASE stop boring the crew with SAME OLD SAME OLD....

D.A. - Perhaps you missed my post earlier this week or so. It was:

gold to 284 before 304....and then I wanted some 'points' ( as they do while wagering ) say.....284 before 309. It is ( or so it seemed ) getting tougher to send the price down than to get a rally. You can understand me wanting to make it fair?? But now we shall wait and see. Unless you have a proposal??!? ;- )

Ted - I did my buzz off!! Go Lakers.....Winners!! work


(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:29 - ID#215208)
Gold - Convincingly broke through the bottom of the channel that has contained its price movement all year. ( I don't know how EB manages to see these things coming! ) Haven't a clue how to establish a tentative new channel.

Silver - The upward price movement has followed the upward slope of the channel, thus keeping the price roughly in the middle of its channel. Will it make new near term highs and move up to the top of the channel? Has to really be decoupled from gold to do this.

Platinum - Recent price movement has been contained in the new channel, and tends to validate this channel as describing the current trend. The PL-Gold spread has been forming a wedge, with the line connecting the tops heading down to meet the horizontal line ( at $80 ) connecting the bottoms. These lines converge just after the new year. Right now, the spread is right at the top of the wegde. For the spread to remain within this wedge, PL must go down, or gold must go up.

Palladium - Watch this one. It has run out of wiggle room. It has hit the apex of the wedge, and has to either break out of the downward channel by continued sideways movement or upward movement, or it must drop, thus confirming the validity of the downward channel. If it does this, it must drop below 200 by year-end.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:33 - ID#26793)
Russian official asked about earthquake says: "call back in the morning"

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:35 - ID#269409)
EB / DA....WHy I'm not in??
I'll tell you why I havn't moved in DA. First, I think this is a year end rally that will reverse to a correction in January for technical reasons and because that's when the lower capital gains rate kicks in and creates a temporary settling selloff.

Secondly, I do believe equities are no bargain at P/E 20 to 21, and very low dividends, therefore risk/reward ratio has shifted to a less than attractive point in the past 2 weeks.

Thirdly, I'm heavily invested in a single stock at the moment ( and it is indeed making money hand over fist ) and don't want to expose myself to further Equity risk for now.

However, all the above said, I will CERTAINLY move into broader market Equities when the next good "buy" opportunity presents, around March or so perhaps, assuming no major changes in the economic fundamentals take place between now and then..

No "crash" is in sight in my view, only a new corrective phase when this latest rally runs out of steam. I only regret, not having moved in on Oct. 27 like I should have!!! I came microns away from buying that day, and admire the gutsy folks who did. They were absoluelty right to do so and I should have followed my own instincts at that time.

However, Silver continue to rise, my company stock continues to rise, I havn't seen an investment loss in 2 decades, we have an ULTRA strong economy in virtually every place it counts, even the Asian crises sems to be abating ( and may help us in some ways...holding inflation and overheated growth at bay ) and so yes..I am optomistic re the future.

The folks like Puetz who continue making ultra high risk bets AGAINST this U.S. economy, are and will continue to be, the worlds biggest losers, not only for the past 2 decades, but in the coming one as well.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:40 - ID#373403)
How do we know?
The government has an obligation to keep confidence levels high in the interest of national economic security. To this end, they can speak publicly that the fundamentals of the marketplace are sound even if that is a lie because confidence is key.

We also see the central banks manipulating the price of gold, presumably in the interest of marketplace stability so that too is seen as alright.

Ramping of equity markets is suspected, as well as manipulation of bond markets through promises elicited by other central banks not to dump.

How do we know that inflation, wage, employment figures, quoted to us are not more fabrication in the interst of a stable marketplace?


(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:40 - ID#7568)

Bart is currently showing 288.30. How about 300 before 280. 11.70 my way versus 8.30 your way. Points galore. Name the quanitity.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:43 - ID#31868)
My sentiments exactly. I think the numbers are totally manufactured. When the truth be known there will be hell to pay. When the Asian crisis starts to hammer the US and all that wonderful money in our markets goes home and oh my, yes, all that wonderful debt paper holding up are markets. Oh my.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:45 - ID#269409)
WSF, re your 12:18..Insurance..risk vs. reward...
Two points WSF, first it isn't the Silicon Valley only I'm looking at, I travel all over the country visiting supplier's to my company, and see an ultra strong economy throughout, not just in the Silicon Valley. If anything, there is a higher "Misery index" here than elsewhere in U.S. due to unaffordable housing, ultra toiugh commute, overcrowding, and longer working hours.

As to derivitives as "insurance"..maybe for very large market players, but for the average to small scale investor with an investment pile below say, $500K, I think derivitives are sheer lunacy, and of course the vast majority of investment advisors would agree. Now if you have a Million or so to play with, as Nick seems to, Ok..maybe then, still and all...seems like the riskiest and most expensive "insurance" policy I've ever seen!

I sure wouldn't make that kind of risky short play as "insurance" unless I had a huge pile of dough on the long side. Puetz and Nick are not long, as we know, so it's not "insurance" but a highly speculative gamble ( and one that's destined to be a total loss )

I feel for anyone here who has been following Puetz's advice for the past few weeks, months, and years for "insurance" purposes. By now they've lost all their capital to "premiums"!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:47 - ID#20137)
No one wants to be in cash is the cry of the talking heads.
With the world ( and national ) action we have going on, does anyone find it interesting that the call against cash is so incrediably strong today. No caution is necessary. For heavens sake do not be caught with any cash, get your money in the stock market immediately. It almost looks like it is no longer enough to say "don't buy gold", they have stepped up to "don't have cash".

Also, look at the daily gold trend lines on kitco. Seems someone doesn't even want gold to cross on the daily charts. Will the dailies cross?? What kind of moves with the crossing have?? Soooooo what is gong to happen at the end of the trading day????

Silver ( wow ) - what more can you say. Silver going great guns and silver stocks asleep.

How does inflation get ahead of the fed? Let us watch and we will see.


(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:52 - ID#269409)
@ Missing Link...them lyin Govt. figgers
I promised not to use the word "moron" on the forum so I'll refrain. Why is it that every reported bit of data or rumor that supports a whacko theory is acceopted as completely accurate, yet when actual economic data is reported which DOESN'T suppport a whacko theory is given, it's "made up" to bolstor confidence?

You guy's know just what kind of conspiracy would be required to get away with grossly misreporting economic data and getting away with it? In a Democratic 2 party system, how long do you think Congressional offices would allow this before making hay with it against the "other side"??

Come on, if you're not going to accept even cold hard data, why join the debate at all? You have lost the basis for belief in any reporting or information in that case, and therefore may as well, become reculsive and give up the dialogue.

Spinds exists, of yes...but ecomomic data all being made up? Why then does the Govt. dutifully report all the bad numbes when they occur hmmm? Come on guy's, use your heads...we don't live in Stalinist Russia.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 12:59 - ID#284255)
Market internals
Why no trading in gold?
Gold gcz7 no bid/ask no volumes?
Gold gcm8 no bid/ask no volumes?

Silver siz7 +0.10 - low volumes.
Silver sih8 +0.12.5 - good volumes.

Vix.x - bottoming formation?
Trin - unhealthy?
Tyx.x - bottoming formation?
Tnx.x - bottoming formation?
Dow - topping formation?

who cares
(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:00 - ID#244209)
LBG - Laugh for the Day

Golly, LGB, what kind of conspiracy WOULD be required to misrepresent
the Federal Deficit to the tune of almost $200B per year?!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:07 - ID#7568)

You are quite right to assume that the numbers are collected honestly however they may have different meaning than what one might think. I know that I have harped upon this subject in the past so I will not waste too much band width here, but it is plain to see that the so called CPI understates inflation, and that the government is doing everything they can to change the way the index is calculated so that it shows even lower inflation. There is a very good piece over at one of the Fed cites which refutes point for point much of the silliness of the Boskin commission. If I can find it I will post the address.

If you actually read the Boskin commission report you will be treated to all sorts of humor. Example, fuel costs are overstated because now that most gasoline stations are self-serve, consumers don't have to hassle with attendants to pay and this is a quality improvement ( No, I did not make this up ) .

Maybe if they sent everyone a Physicians Desk Reference and did away with doctors we could have even more deflation because medical care quality would increase because we would no longer have to hassle with doctors.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:08 - ID#258129)
LGB - about puts
LGB: Ive just made 30% profit today - sold equity puts, Ive bought 10 days ago. You newer know. In general, I think coming week DJ and Europe will go up for very simple reason: all these mutual equity funds have to spend cash before New Year to present nice end-of-the year reports. Closer to Christmas it they will spent their cash and it might go down. But there will be no crash, just several %% down. And for sure, coming week Europe will profit on higher US$. IMHO

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:10 - ID#269409)
@ Who Cares...Now who's laughing!!!
So you post a Government provided "debt" figures link to "prove" that all Govt. figures are lies! You'ze guy's REALLY crack me up! Deficit and debt are not one and the same WHoCares, and I do believe the current deficit numbers.....but your very post proves my case completely..quote Govt. figures that you believe in, don't quote the ones you don't!! I rest my case.... ( smilin AND laughing! )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:10 - ID#188244)
We don't live in Russia?
LGB- your last phrase, we don't live in Stalinist Russia, is worth thinking about. We come far closer than many can imagine. Let's allow the Oklahoma lawsuits to progress, and see if Ron Brown did take a slug in the head. And please help explain all the craziness surrounding Vince Foster. Oh yeah, the CIA has admitted that it WAS involved in Mena. And a local prosecuter down there is in jail for basically selling justice. The big criminal division guy in Justice is Clinton's lawyer's partner. It's funny you mentioned Russia, because the guy ( Larry Jones? of Feed the Children ) who delivered the eulogy for Glenn Willburn ( ? ) quoted Alexander S. ( no way I'm spelling that one ) - something to the effect of lying becoming the pillar of the state. Willburn's grandchildren died in the bombing, and he was convinced that the government was involved. We'll see, we got Johnnie Cochran on that one.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:11 - ID#20137)
Mexican pesco getting nervous
``The peso came under pressure in the morning on data from the United States that pushed up bond yields. That gave a scare to the market,'' said one

The same-day peso closed 4.60 centavos weaker at 8.1320/8.1370 per dollar.

The benchmark 24-hour peso and its 48-hour stablemate were weaker, respectively, by 3.8 and 3.0 centavos at 8.1420/8.1460 and 8.1450/8.1480 per

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:12 - ID#269409)
Psssst...... WSF
Vince Foster was killed by a mysterious second gunman, from the Grassy Knoll, after he parachuted from a black chopper, sent by the Rothschilds.

Good ol' boy
(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:12 - ID#26345)
Reviewed Ted Butlers letter
Reveiewed Ted Butler's letter and found it unconvincing. If I invest time, energy and money and prove up a gold deposit which IS economic, I should be able to borrow money to extract the gold. If the form of the borrowing involves using someone's gold to fund the project, that seems like a nice commercial transaction. I will borrow the gold, which I sell or borrow against and the lender gets a lien on my property, an entitlement to receive in kind metal as agreed. What is wrong with that. In order to insure that I will be in a position to repay my obligation, I sell forward, hedge. That is why hedging was developed as a tool. I do not want to take the market risk. Someone on the other side wants to lock in a buy price. If I were a farmer, I might seek loans from a grainery owner to acquire seed. I might even agree to repay the seed with seed, a fungible asset plus additional seed for the loan. I might even work a deal where I can borrow against his inventory. Everything seems on the up and up to me.

I have been reading Kitco contributpor's allegations about market manipulations etc. With 3.8 billion ounces of gold above ground, it is difficult for me to believe that it is being manipulated other than by the fear that CB's and Countries might dump their hoards. Silver was depressed for decades when the U.S. decided to sell its surplus and then melted down all its coinage effectively demonatorizing the metal. It seems we are at the same cross roads with gold. Will the metal be dumped by the CB's and Countries. I do not hear much anymore about debts being satisfied with transfers of gold as was once common. Sure, paper can be monopoly money if irresponsible parties issue too much of it and that has happened over and over. But look at it this way. Gold was money but then someone found that it was accumulating dust in a vault so he put out paper entitling the bearer to some of it and paper was born. Why not-looking at it from a countries point of view, a country which has vast resources in mines, manufacture, agriculture, give paper to all proportionately to his interest in the whole. Then print some more if someone creates or finds something having additional value. So long as the formula is followed, there should be no inflation or diminuation of the paper value. Gold should not be king. Someone lucky enought to find a major deposit should not have an advantage over someone who figure out how to double his crop on a piece of land. Gold should be a measure of value as it is desired on a basis of supply and demand. If governments become irresponsible and there is a demand for it, it will rise in price. Right now, people seem to be content with the current system. at least here in the U.S. The almighty U.S. dollar has become the currency of choice in many countries. Where is the price of gold headed. Thousands of years of history tell us that governments are irresponsible and that there will always be a demand for it. The current price is but a blink in the grander scheme of things. Chances are if you were to be around in a few hundred years, you would have seen many cycles in gold. Gold is down, but not out.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:13 - ID#20137)
ECRI future U.S. inflation gauge 111.0 in November

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:17 - ID#188244)
Debt and deficit numbers are not one and the same ONLY because Congress decided to create a fiction called the deficit which it could cheerfully report to placate the lambs. BTW, what D.A. points out in the Boskin report is just scratching the surface... PhD's in economics are trained ( I was one of them ) to rationalize any outcome that is desired. ( one person we read a lot of was Boskin ) I personally know people who do this as their sole function in life. Its sickening to say the least.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:17 - ID#269409)
@ Delphi....clarify
Since it would be impossible to have made money buying U.S. equity PUTS 10 days ago and selling them yesterday, I assume you were saying you SOLD Puts 10 days ago that subsequently expired as worthless?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:18 - ID#20137)
Liquidity-driven global shares rally may not last
LONDON, Dec 5 ( Reuters ) - Signs of a recovery on global equity markets could prove a false dawn, based more on massive central bank liquidity
injections than improved prospects, London-based strategists said on Friday.

``The Asian crisis has induced a liquidity-driven boost to markets, but it will be a short term bounce,'' said James Montier, global strategist at NatWest

Seeking to prop up its stricken banking system, the BOJ has pumped billions of dollars of liquidity into the Japanese economy.

According to Goldman Sachs research, the BOJ has been supplying the money market with daily fund surpluses of more than one trillion yen ( $7.7 billion ) ,
and on December 3 bought 200 billion yen of government bonds.

High liquidity is seen as creating a market where the U.S. long bond can rally below a 6.00 percent yield as the same time as shares power ahead.

"Something has to give," said Montier.

``The most frightening thing is that you have two markets that are pricing in incredibly different scenarios.''

"I don't see a situation under which equity can really win."

If the bond markets are wrong, a Fed hike will be no boon to equities, which will also suffer if earnings forecasts are fall short, Montier said.

The Japanese Ministry of Finance is said to be providing non-yen loans to banks to allow them an end around the Japan premium

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:18 - ID#22956)
Well D.A.,

Since I have made some $$ on this market I am feeling pretty good. However, I will only wager ONE of the AE's tenth oz. ( it is mainly a gentleman's wager, or it should be, with a mild monetary twist ) . Heck, if I win, I win less money and if you win you win more. What an attractive wager for you! Oh well, I am confident ( somewhat ) that the price will NOT see 300 before 280 SPOT.

What's $30.00 between friends, eh? Hell, should we ever meet in person our Bar tab would be considerably larger anyway....imho ;- )

The bet is on! I will hold my coin and you hold yours. The loser will send to the other by mail ( or whatever ) . I trust you. And you can trust me. DEAL?!?? throw the dice


(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:19 - ID#188244)
Vince Foster
LGB- Read a little bit, OK? Do some research. Its easy to poke fun, but at least have some evidence in your favor.

who cares
(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:20 - ID#244209)
LGB - Intermittently Malfunctioning Conspiracy Theorist

If I remember correctly, wasn't it LGB that was promoting the
"7 year recession in Japan" conspiracy theory?

I mean, all the "official sources" claim that Japan's recession
ended in 1994. Where on earth did LGB dream this one up?

Gee. I wonder what kind of conspiracy could hide something
like a "7 year recession" from the 125 million people involved in it?

I fail to understand LGB's recent posting decrying himself. : )

LGB, LGB, where for art thou, LGB?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:25 - ID#269409)
D.A., Inflation umber made up/CPI
In that one area we do agree DA. Inflation / CPI figures are completely meaningless as reported, due to the assumptions and silly formulaic convolutions that occur. I've always hated the inflation reporting because it's obvious that prices on basic essentials like food, housing, energy, auto's, etc. have increased beyond the supposed 2% to 3% we get from the formula. This is an area where serious congressional revision ought to take place, of course it won't because they're worried about a rising CPI casuing massive COLA's for SSI, etc. thus creating a renewed problem for SSI solvency, and such.

However, hard stats like Unemployment, wages, interest rates, deficit, debt, etc etc. are a different story. I think for the most part, it's pretty damned hard to cook those numbers, and you'd have to believe in the Area 51 alien coverup to think they're all made up by nefarious Govt.conspirators.

who cares
(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:25 - ID#244209)
LGB And The Accountant

Er, LGB. I could actually haul out my accounting books, but frankly,
you make so many mistakes, it's just not worth my time.

Official accounting rules state that the sum of all deficits over
a time period are equal to the total debt over that same time

Actual total borrowing for the government during the past year is
$200B. Ergo, but official accounting definition, that is the
deficit for the year. : )

Should I post Ian Goddard's remarks on TWA800, you know, the ones
that were "quoted" by 90 official news sources? : )

Dang, I sure hope that Japan isn't headed for an "8-year recession",
er, oops, I mean, ANOTHER recession. : )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:25 - ID#7568)

You my friend have got a wager! It's great to be a goldbug, yeehaa!!

who cares
(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:30 - ID#244209)
Conspiracy Theory

I must say, LGB, that I have had the last laugh. : ) In my Bachelor's
class last night, we were going over the curriculem for the rest of
the quarter since I won't be there after next week. : )

The students were worried about their new teacher. So I showed them
how to do some of their own stuff in the networking class, gave them
supervisor accounts, etc.

Suddenly, one of them said, "Hey. Isn't this a conspiracy?"

I looked at him, wondering what the hell he was talking about.

One of the other students says, "Well, we're sharing information".

Another student says, "And we're hiding it from a unknowing third party; the new teacher".

A fourth one says, "And we're getting a gain out of it".

And I busted up laughing for five minutes. I actually taught these
guys something that they remembered, understood, and USED
constructively. : )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:37 - ID#224151)

Millions,Billions Trillions

How high the numbers go

Who can comprehend it

Who is in the know.

The little guys confounded

The Big guys in the dough.

Just love that Easy Credit

Must keep the status Quo.

( Just wondering: could the mystery benefactor of all those CB sales be Big Daddy U-S.
Seeking more Gold to back up all those extra $ it has been printing lately and to maintain
its global economic hegemony. Sellers dont seek low prices....buyers do.Soon another
bump in the official price of Gold?!?!? )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:37 - ID#33180)
CDE and FSAGX bottom
Yesterday's close felt like a bottom in FSAGX ( 12.90 ) and CDE ( 7 3/8 ) . At least for the next couple of months, I feel these levels could hold, so at the open this morning, I abandoned my "Just wait, it's going to get cheaper" stance. Half my PM-eligible trading money is now in these two old favorites, one for gold shares, and the other for silver-and-gold. January finds advisors taking profits in the new tax year, and looking for what was beaten down the prior year, offering a Buy Low opportunity. Gold stocks will certainly offer that opportunity, so they could attract some buying by intrepid bargain hunters then. So until the end of January, I'm back in those two. "Past performance does not........etc."

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:41 - ID#20137)
Wonder what the comex stocks are lookign like today for SILVER.
YES, SILVER is looking quite good. Just give the kitco chart a gander.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:41 - ID#269409)
Who Cares, WSF..Comedy hour
Guy's this is quickly breaking down into comedy hour, and I'm already laughing too hard so a brief response before I'm back to Biz at hand.

First, WhoCares, what the Govt. borrowed isn't the deficit you Stutz, it's the total equation of course of what they borrow vs. income, and the income is WAY up neyond their wildest expectations due to unanticipated tax revenues from quickly expanding economy. Secondly, as to Japan, read yesterday's Wall St, journal article on how Japan is beginning to slip back into recession after so tenuosly creeping out of it without having ever affected a real's been clearly reported.

AS to Ian Goddards comments, I posted the link of his ACTUAL quotes ( that he essentially "made the whole thing up to further his agenda" ) a few weeks ago. Tolerant and other such Flt 800 "conspiracy" posters were completely silent in the face of the actual Quotes...or was that all made up by Reuters and all the News media to "assist" in the massive Govt. conspiracy that involved all the hundreds and thousand of Govt. employee's involved in the investigation. ( The biggest in FAA history )

MAN those Govt. employee's have sure gotten good at keeping quiet lately, too bad for Nixon, and all the other folks who have been "exposed" over the years by whistle blowers.

On to chastise YOU WSF. It always crack me up when someone spouts the most inane ignorance and then tells someone who calls their hand that "You should do some reading and educate yourself!" GAWD, priceless!

Another investigation that involved dozens of people, thousands of man hours, and with a VERY strong agenda ( on the part of Republicans ) to find out if any nefarious plot was involved. All hushed up ehh...Puuuhhhlleaaaseee, I can only take so much laughter in one day! You can't get THREE people in this world to hold their tongue, let alone hundreds, ESPECIALLY Govt. employee's! You been readin too many web sites pal. Try reading some of the actual investigation reports ( done by folks with plenty of motive to uncover dirt ) or is that too boring?

Believe you me, Bill and Hillary have plenty to be embarrassed about, and plenty of shady dealings in their background, but Vince just isn't one of them. ( Though he might have pulled the trigger over angst of having to hold his tongue on what he knew..of that I have no doubt... )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:46 - ID#284255)
$25 billion
FOCUS-Euro bourses recover from surprise U.S. data
LONDON, Dec 5 ( Reuters ) - European stock markets mostly recovered by late afternoon on Friday after figures showing U.S. employment grew at its strongest rate for 21 months in November put higher U.S. interest rates back on the agenda.
Markets are likely to remain on edge until the Federal Reserve holds its Open Market Committee meeting on December 16.
The Ministry of Finance was said to have made a $25 billion dollar-denominated deposit at a major Japanese bank, which in turn loaned money to other banks in financial difficulties. The ministry declined to comment.
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Toshihiko Fukui said Japan hoped to hold down borrowing costs for Japanese institutions in overseas dollar markets.
Fears of intervention persisted, heightened by Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka's comment that Japan was monitoring the foreign exchange market and was prepared to take action.
``Some weak longs were flushed out on the news of the big deposit ( by the MoF ) , but after some thinking, the market decided that the economic fundamentals in Japan are still not good,'' said Jeffrey Yu, senior dealer at Sanwa Bank Ltd in New York.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:46 - ID#373346)
Good ol' boy
I have to agree with you that gold will cycle
due to the inherent nature of human greed,
etc. But I disagree with regards to the current
state of the gold market. Not only is their fear
of CB selling ( although they're holding 97% of
original stockpiles ) , but CB's have been lending
gold at the tune of 10-25% of total stockpiles,
producers have been not only forward hedging,
but hedging at break-neck paces to "lock-in"
those prices.

Although producers are locking in these prices
and presumably getting a good deal, they are
driving the gold market down even farther by their
lack of fiscal control. Hedging upon lending, upon
hedging. What this is saying is that as mines become
unprofitable to the low gold price, some of these
companies may not be around to fulfill their promises
of returned gold. Supply is not infinite, as you stated.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:50 - ID#284255)
AG's got big boots.
Asia turmoil outweighs US job gains at Fed for now
By Chris Stetkiewicz
NEW YORK, Dec 5 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve officials would probably like to raise interest rates soon, but will hold off until Asian financial markets show they could handle it, U.S. economists said.

The U.S. economy continues to grow in surprisingly sharp spurts and analysts believe Fed leaders are anxious to boost official rates, despite the even more surprising trend of puny price growth.

``The Asian crisis will simply delay, not cancel, a need for higher U.S. interest rates,'' said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Norwest Corp in Minneapolis.

Fed officials were surely cringing Friday after a Labor Department report showed 404,000 Americans found new jobs in November, pushing the jobless rate down to 4.6 percent, its lowest level in more than 24 years.

With the U.S. economy expected to grow by a robust 3.6 percent in 1997 and workers and factory space already in short supply, economists believe inflation is bound to pick up without a dose of monetary tightening.

But the continuing economic slide in Asia, which has sent stocks and currencies plunging across the region, effectively prevents the Fed from acting, analysts said.

``If it were not for the Asian situation, they would be tightening without question. But they have reason to stay, and it's one that people will accept,'' said Robert Dederick, economist at Northern Trust in Chicago.

That means the Fed will probably hold interest rates steady when its policy-making Federal Open Market Committee meets on December 16, but economists believe the panel might be willing to tighten credit at its February 3-4 meeting.

If the Fed raised rates now, with a painful banking sector shakeout in Japan and South Korea just beginning to show signs of stability after a $57 billion International Monetary Fund bailout package, Asia could enter a fresh tailspin, economists said.

Higher U.S. interest rates would draw capital away from Asian markets, smacking Asian stock markets and renewing selling of battered Asian currencies in the process.

The IMF has already cut its 1998 global growth forecast to 3.5 percent from 4.3 percent and many U.S. economists predict a similar slowdown in U.S. growth as a result of the Asian crisis.

``Asia is the prime consideration for the Fed for the next month or two. After that, assuming there aren't very clear-cut and severe effects on the U.S. economy, then I think the labor market begins to take precedence,'' said Marc Wanshel, an economist at J.P. Morgan & Co.

Many economists believe the Fed is risking some future increase in inflation by not raising rates now.

But U.S. inflation has remained well under control, partly due to a worldwide glut of goods on the heels of a drop in consumer and industrial spending in Asia and parts of Latin America.

Despite the tight jobs market, U.S. average hourly earnings have risen just 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in November and the consumer price index, the broadest measure of U.S. inflation, was growing at a 1.8-percent annualized rate in October, down from 3.3 percent in all of 1996.

``There is no great urgency to raise rates,'' Sohn said. ``No one is really talking about a surge in inflation any time soon.''

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:50 - ID#269409)
Sharefin, Your Yahoo post
Now you're talkin Nick! Everyone should read it....and all the other thoiusands of similar that have crossed the wire the past few months. Reality check time...

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:53 - ID#269409)

UK Stocks Outlook-Christmas rally to feast on data

By John Hanley

LONDON, Dec 5 ( Reuters ) - UK equities markets next week will feast on a batch of economic reports and the strong year-end interest from
institutional investors that has already helped kick off the traditional Christmas rally.

The data from both sides of the Atlantic are expected to draw particular attention even after stock markets were able to overcome the robust
U.S. unemployment report on Friday.

Minutes from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting in November, due out on Wednesday, will also be digested to see if
there was a split among members when interest rates were unexpectedly raised to 7.25 percent, market sources said.

The BoE left rates unchanged on Thursday.

By 1603 GMT, Britain's leading share index, the FTSE 100 was up 88.7 points or 1.8 percent to 5,171, a six-week high and near its record
high of 5,367.3. The index has jumped seven percent this week alone.

``It's quite a busy week for economic data...and if one takes the view that the economic well being is the key, then it will be a difficult week
for the markets if the data do not come up to scratch,'' said Jeremy Batstone, head of research at NatWest Stockbrokers.

``But we would expect a generally benign week and in the UK of course we've got plenty of bid speculation and a raft of information about
companies returning cash to shareholders,'' he said. ``That is going to swell institutional coffers and that will be recommitted if it hasn't been

Indeed, strategists said they will be watching for any more moves by blue chip companies to return cash to shareholders, after Reuters
Holdings Plc ( quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: RTR.L ) said this week that it was giving back 1.5 billion pounds in a capital reorganisation.

On the economic calendar, UK industrial production, manufacturing and producer price index data are due out on Monday, followed by retail
prices and RPI-X on Tuesday.

The CBI monthly trends survey is due out on Thursday.

The U.S. data will be scrutinised after the Labor Department reported on Friday that unemployment fell to a 24-year low of 4.6 percent and
the number of non-farm payrolls jumped by 404,000, about twice what economists had expected.

``Now that Asia has calmed down, the Fed has become more important,'' said Mark Tinker, an equities strategist at UBS.

``The UK continues to be pulled by overseas markets, which at the moment is more the U.S. than Asia, and by the domestic, which continues
to look fairly well valued.''

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meets December 16.

Asia's financial markets are expected to be pushed to the backburner next week after South Korea, the world's 11th largest economy, agreed a
$57 billion rescue package from the International Monetary Fund.

The biggest ever bail-out by the IMF helped ease some concerns among UK investors.

``I think it removes one of the elements of tension that has kept a lot of investors distracted from what are still reasonably positive
fundamentals for most of the Europe scene,'' Roger Monson, chief equity strategist at Daiwa Europe, told Reuters Financial Television.

Regarding next week, he said, ``If we get a major headline, such as a top ten Japanese bank failing or going into forced merger, we might get
some further jitters, but I think a lot of the nervousness has been washed out now.''

No FTSE 100 companies are due to report earnings next week.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:54 - ID#258129)
LGB- puts
LGB: It was not US equity PUTS: I bought puts of Getrinics feb 67.5 in Amsterdam ( local ticker GTN, Reuters ticker GVKN ) . Sold today.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:55 - ID#280222)
PEDRO: re your 13:37: "Sellers don't seek low prices...buyers do." ( except in gold? ) Brilliant simplicity! ( ps. it's not the U.S. who orchestrated this vendetta )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:56 - ID#417317)
Panda ( or anyone ) :

How would you compare Supercharts to Metastock for end-of-day charting?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:56 - ID#284255)
systemic risk
EMERGING MARKETS-Hopeful signs but investors wary
LONDON, Dec 5 ( Reuters ) - Anxiety is easing over emerging market pressure points in Asia, Latin America and Europe, but investors may not be out of the woods yet.
``The period of wholesale systemic risk to emerging markets has passed for now but that could very quickly change should Korea or any of the other larger markets re-enter difficulties,''
``Anyone saying the Asia problems are over because the IMF rode in to help the Koreans out could be a bit disappointed,''
``Within Asia there are still some very serious problems of a fundamental kind which stock markets find it hard to discount.''

(Fri Dec 05 1997 13:58 - ID#338452)
Good ol' boy

Sir, Please allow me the oportunity to agree 100% with your post of today at 13:12. I say this fully knowing that LGB has NOT ( at least yet ) said that he liked it too ( he will ! ... damn it ) . As a professional, one must always keep an open mind towards the happenings of the market. Your post was extremely well put, creative and understandable [even for LGB when he get's around to reading it ( :- ) ) ) ]

Thanks again.


(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:05 - ID#284255)
``A drastic earthquake is waiting for our financial industry,''
IMF blood-letting begins in Seoul finance industry
SEOUL, Dec 5 ( Reuters ) - A revolution is expected to change the face of South Korea's beleaguered financial industry following the government's announcement on Friday that insolvent financial institutions should close.
In a sign of the impending shakeout, the Finance Ministry said it was suspending business operations of Coryo Securities Corp, one of South Korea's major brokerage firms, from Saturday.
``A drastic earthquake is waiting for our financial industry,''
``I'm really concerned we have opened too much overnight, which will invite foreign corporate raiders. It's not just a bitter medicine, but a poison,''
``Some banks and companies will go bankrupt. It's not a problem of profit and loss anymore, but survival,''

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:07 - ID#269409)
Pegasus Gold
PGU up 10% today! WOuld be a pretty good one day gain for risk players no?

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:07 - ID#287367)
My friend, I don't doubt your sincerity. After all, as intelligent and sophisticated as he was, O'Brien really did believe that "two plus two equals five." I can appreciate that you really believe that flimsy pieces of paper blessed by Ron Rubin and the rest of the goniffs ( that can be produced in mass quantities with minimal effort and resources ) are more to be desired than the heavy, yellow, durable, malleable, ductile, superlative conductor of electricity that is an infinitesimal constituent of the earth's crust.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:11 - ID#194311)
Global growth forecast slashed....US doesn't mean you...or does it?
Global economic growth forecast slashed due to Asia crisis: IMF
WASHINGTON, Dec 5 ( AFP ) - The International Monetary Fund has
cut its forecast of global economic growth in 1998 to 3.5 percent
from 4.3 percent due to the Asian financial turmoil, deputy managing
director Stanley Fischer said Friday.
Fischer told a press conference here that the revised figures
will be published on December 22.
The Asian financial crisis which orginated in Thailand July
swept through Southeast Asia and affected other countries including
South Korea which Thursday signed a 55 billion dollar IMF-brokered
rescue package.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:13 - ID#194311)
Mansions going cheap in Vancouver...Seattle, San Fran next?
Asian economic crisis investors unloading Vancouver mansions
VANCOUVER, Dec 5 ( AFP ) - The turmoil on Asian currency markets
has reverberated across the Pacific to Vancouver, contributing to a
steep 37-percent decline in a residential real estate market
dominated by Asians.
Especially hard hit are million-dollar luxury mansions, which
are being sold at fire-sale prices.
The 37-percent decline in November compared to the previous
month was blamed by some realtors on turmoil in Asia's financial
market. Asian investors are estimated to hold 60 percent of
Vancouver's residential resale market.
The crash of Vancouver's downtown luxury resale condominium
market, with its heavy offshore investment, has lowered prices 25 to
35 per cent, Jurock said.
"We still think Vancouver has a fabulous future, but not this
year, not next year, and maybe not the year after that," Jurock
"If you're a seller you'll have some problems."

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:15 - ID#269409)
@ paper faith
Crystal, it ain't the paper I believe in Crystal, it's the economic miracles around me that it's helped produce. You folks are right that the paper has no inherent intrinsic worth. It's simply a tool/medium of exchange between creative and productive members of society in the world's strongest economy.

My faith is NOT in the paper itself my friend. My faith is in the productivity, strength, and ingenuity of the American worker/Corporations/Enterpreneurs/Democratic society that have built and will continue to sustain, this, the greatest weath creating society of all time.

Call me naive if you like, the reality surrounds me. The facts and the people don't lie. I'll take this "phony" propserity built on "faith" anyday..over the Depression and poverty that an inflexible Gold based currency system would have given us. It's our system, our people, and our drive my man.....that's what I believe in. The paper is only a token to make it happen.

Dave in CO
(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:16 - ID#215211)
More consipiracy theories for LGB
These will give you a good laugh:

1. Larry Lawrence, one of the richest 400 in the U.S. and a financial supporter of Clinton, was buried in Arlington because of his service in the Merchant Marine in WW2 when he was seriously injured when his ship was hit by a German torpedo. Well get this, the crazy right-wingers claim that they can find no record of Lawrence's even being in the Merchant Marine. They say he made up the whole story. What will these right-wing loonies come up with next?

2. You'll love this one: reports on the Internet say that 475 members of the OKC bombing victims' families are suing the federal government because there is evidence that the government had prior knowledge that a bombing would take place. These wackos even say that ABC executives withheld a story on this because the ABC people said that the story could "bring the country down" and cause the placement of "machineguns on every street corner." Unbelievable.

Good ol' boy
(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:18 - ID#26345)
Tman- I do not get it.
You believe that there is something sinister in mining companies hedging gold. If I find a deposit which can be produced at $300 per ounce when the price is $400 and have zero conficence that the price will rise, not only am I being prudent to lock in the price but the lender will probably demand that I do so. Then if the price falls, I will be assured of making $100 per ounce and my lender will get his gold back. Mines which are hedged can either remain in busines delivering the gold or shut the mine down and cover at a lower price. Presumably, the parties buying the gold are convinced that the price will go up. If it does they make money. If not they must cover or take delivery loosing, but that wss the gamble. The wheat farmer, likewise, can hedge against a down turn in the wheat marekt. Nothing sinister. Futures markets were created to protect against loss from falling prices and to guarantee the buyer that he could secure the commodity at a known price, perhaps he has contracted for future deliveries.

There are a lot of mines producing gold at less than market. They have the option of continuing operations delivering gold at a profit or shutting down , taking their profit if they are hedged. If they are not hedged they can shut down or continuing to operate at a loss if they are not.

Sure, a lot of mines are still operating due to the fact that they are hedged, but that is the owners choic. Nothing sinister. Producers of commodites should have the option of reducing their risks and the same holds true for the buyers. And the speculators deserve the right to gamble. It is a wonderful system which all evens out in the end.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:18 - ID#33180)
CDE higher price target
panda, Earl, Byron: What do you say to a 13.5 resistance level in CDE in a couple of months, based on price charts? Thinking positively today.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:19 - ID#338452)

I read your note to Good ol' boy and would like to note just a few things.

Taken ( as fact within a market ) that people/companies/governments do NOT do trades or market activities to their detriment. They do things to benefit themselves.
With that in mind....
1. What's wrong with a CB dumping an item it sees as being of no value othet than loans etc as they're doing with gold at the moment? It may be inconsiderate and an inconveience to you and others but if they think it's right ......
2. What's wrong with someine taking a chance to short Gold stocks or for the Gold companies to hedge their profits. You made it sound as if they were committing fraud or something. I believe they did it towards THEIR best intentions.......

I'm sorry, but I just don't see them as bad spirited just because they're doing what they perceive to be things in their own best interest..

Thanks for your time...


(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:20 - ID#194311)
You are a sick yankee dog living in your the world a little and see who's expense you are living at.
I want to vomit.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:21 - ID#234311)
The battle rages...
I have read with interest ( and amusement ) the crossfile between LGB and his detractors. The great diversity of points-of-view here helps clear the thinking.

Question for the group. If LGB's opponents are correct, *something* is going to have to happen to so shake up the status quo that the house of cards ( or the granite fortress in LGB's view ) withh crumble. Such an event is tantamount to the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it. Evidently, the Yamaichi collapse was insufficient. My question: if markets and situations are indeed teetering, what event or events would possibly be of sufficient magnitude to start the chain of events in motion? I'm not looking for next week's lottery numbers, just some ideas on the way folks see things shaping up. Or, *not* shaping up in LGB's case.

Also, I was reviewing the 5/31/97 annual report from the USAA Gold Fund, Mark Johnson, CFA, states: "We are concerned about the outlook for gold. On a longer term basis, this concern is based on the attitude of central bankers toward gold which appears to range between indifference and hostility. Given the large supply overhang contained in central bank vaults, it is clearly within the power of the central bankers to cap any and all gold rallies for many years to come." Sounds like market maniplulation to me. Comments, LGB?

Spud Master
(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:24 - ID#273112)
LGB doesn't know the difference between Federal deficit and a tiger's bum...
LGB, The difference between Jan 1, 1997 and Dec 12, 1997 from the US Treasury's "Debt to the Penny" web page IS the current Federal Deficit. And that figure is approx. $200 billion.

NOT Clinton's weaseled $25 billion claim.

Explain to us how the Treasury's official $200 billion deficit is not the real Federal deficit for 1997. We are all waiting for your explaination.

PS - Bart does not allow smoke and mirrors on this site.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:29 - ID#258129)
LGB - PS: DJ and Amsterdam stock exchange index AEX correlate at 98% - 1996 - 1997 data

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:33 - ID#284255)
New forces at play?
The concepts you talk of,
Are the reasons that we are here now.
For the last 5 to 10 years everything has been rosy.

Now these forces are changing,
And a new set of rules are coming in to play.

I have never read of so much,
Financial/economic disaster,
As has been produced in the last month.

It is worse than the accumulative totals
Of all the bad news, over the previous ten years.
And is only the tip of the iceburg.

Something to think about?

-------------------------- If in the last month -----------------------------
Your employee's had presented you with more bad news,
Than you'd received in the previous ten years.
And you realized that there was worse to come.
Would you still feel as optimistic????????

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:34 - ID#7568)

I am curious as to what brings you to the conclusion that people in the US are doing well at the expense of others in the rest of the world. Its good to hear views from other perspectives.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:37 - ID#286250)
The Folly, Frenzy, Fear Financial Index the FFFFI (with thanks to Sharefin & Father)

The FFFFI Index will track the increasing number of brokerages and banks caught with jam on their faces. This weeks miscreant:

Monday, Dec 1, 1997

Spain, Credit Suisse arm fined
The Commission Nacional del Mercado de Valores, Spains stock market regulator, has fined Credit Suisse Financial Products of the UK Pta285m ( $1.91m ) in connection with share manipulation charges.

The fine, one of the toughest leveled by the market watchdog, followed an inquiry into the sudden collapse on December 27, 1995 of the Ibex-30 Index which represents Spains most traded stocks.

The investigation centered on a swap operation with a fund managed by a leading Spanish bank that was backed by an Ibex futures contract."

The frequency of these 'derivative difficulties' is increasing...

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:38 - ID#373346)
Good ol' boy
I'm definately not arguing as to the validity of
forward sales through the futures market as a
means of hedging one's interests due to market
uncertainty. In fact, your point is very articulate
and very well said.

I'm saying that in the macro-side of things, the
deficit between demand and mineable supply is
widening, and the price of gold has been artificially
driven-down by constant hedging, at lower and lower
prices. The same holds true for any commodity.

Enter the speculator..... he continues to drive the
price down through an opportunity of gold gloom and
doom talk by the finest of the world's financiers. This
further compounds the falling in the p.o.g.

We also have to take a very good look at two
indicators to get the big picture on this decline:

1. Commercial positions vs. Speculator positions
2. Public sentiment about gold

Over the past few months commercials have been
buying gold at tremendous rates, as have speculators
been shorting at tremendous rates. History tells us that
this signals an end to golds decline.

Bullish sentiment for gold is 19%. One of the lowest
bullish indicators for any commodity at anytime in history.

Hedging in itself is not bad. Excessiveness is. Thanks
for your intuitive input.

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:40 - ID#24140)

Ill give you a clue - the tiger's bum has


Guys like you make me happy I became an


And cricket like today makes me happy I

moved to South Africa. Symcox the Magician.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:40 - ID#373403)
LGB, I won't use the word moron with you either.
We have a balanced budget according to our two party government. Why does the debt keep going up then?
Why does the other party not make hay of this?
Maybe because there are really no choices left?


Charles Keeling
(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:43 - ID#344225)
Gold Loans Made by Central Banks

Those who are borrowing GOLD from CB'S can not
repay the GOLD that they are borrowing.

They are immediately dumping the borrowed gold
on the market and driving the price down. Then,
with the cash in their pockets they continue to
pay the small interest rates that is asked by the
Central Banks.

This is not normal business at todays GOLD prices;
it is instead fraud. Perhaps the biggest ponzi
scheme that has ever been hatched.

This ponzi scheme could only be pulled on gulible
young yuppies who have been promoted in the past
few years to top spots in the Worlds CB'S. A day
of capitulation is coming at warp speed.

I bet that this GOLD that has been "loaned" is also
still being carried on the books as IN STOCK.

Where are you Mr. Goldsmith??? One big purchase
would send all the rats running to cover their
loans before it is too late. Come on Soros--some
money is definetly on the table for a GOLD BULL
who has enough cash to turn the tide for just a
few weeks.

Those of you who are posting on this board and
extolling the virtues of papeer are posting on
the wrong board.

Good ol' boy
(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:43 - ID#26345)
Y2KBug, You are correct.
The overhanging gold does constitute a major threat to the price of gold. But, there is nothing sinister. Just a fact of life. When these holders were fat and happy holding their hoards, the market reacted to the gold that was in circulation. But now that there is some rumblings about the gold being sold, the world is wondering who is going to buy it all and the market is reacting accordingly. It is not in the country and CB's best interests to dump it. Therefore I believe we can expect them to sell in a prudent fashion, only dumping it if they are in a severe pinch. It is good to have gold if you are in a pinch, but if you have massive amonts of it, you are in a positon to cause problems with your market. Major shareholders in corporations have the same problems. I reiterate, silver was held down for decades until all of the stockpills and coinage were dealt off and melted down. The problem with gold is that there are too many large holders. The buyers are getting out of the way. You would too if you saw that someone was about to bring more gold to the market than you thought it would absorb at the current price. It is not smart for governments and CB's too shoot themseves in the foot, but they have and in the process, managed to shoot a good many gold bugs in the head.

Spud Master
(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:45 - ID#273112)
For those interested, latest US Treasury deficit for 1997....
12/03/1997 $5,475,039,674,271.27
01/01/1997 -$5,323,171,750,783.19
1997 DEFICIT $ 151,867,923,488.08

Or $445 million per day, and we still have 24 more days left!

That would make the final 1997 US Federal DEFICIT = $161 Billion dollars.

Feel free to comment, LGB, using your new ClintonMath,
where $161 billion = $25 billion.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:51 - ID#373346)
Your point is also very well put. CB's have
been pressured to find a source of paper
revenue to "beef-up" their currencies and
economies. Loaning gold at the tune of 1.5-2%
while the price of gold has fallen precipitously,
therefore making their stockpiles of gold less
valuable, certainly doesn't make sense to me.

Also, comments from CB's on gold have
been much more confusing.

I think though that you have hit the nail on the
head. Someone is profiting or will profit from the
recent downturn. Someone will accumulate at
these levels and below for tremendous profits.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:52 - ID#373346)
Your point is also very well put. CB's have
been pressured to find a source of paper
revenue to "beef-up" their currencies and
economies. Loaning gold at the tune of 1.5-2%
while the price of gold has fallen precipitously,
therefore making their stockpiles of gold less
valuable, certainly doesn't make sense to me.

Also, comments from CB's on gold have
been much more confusing.

I think though that you have hit the nail on the
head. Someone is profiting or will profit from the
recent downturn. Someone will accumulate at
these levels and below for tremendous profits.

Good ol' boy
(Fri Dec 05 1997 14:57 - ID#26345)
I question whether the deficit between demand and mnable supply is widerning.
I believe strongly in the forces of supply and demand. If what you say is true, then the price should surely rise reflecting the demand. Yet, it has gone down. Why, because there are 3.8 billion ounces of gold above ground, much in unsteady hands who are threating to sell greatly tipping the scales in favor of supply over demand. Gold will not go to zero, it is too much loved. But, it will drop to a point where the buyers believe it to be irresistable. Hopefully, we have reached that point.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:00 - ID#31876)
@Spud Master
Bravo! Keep un-spinning the spinmasters!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:05 - ID#57232)
Energy Stock surge - Why?
All: Anyone know why the oil/ngas indicies are heading up? I sold my XAU puts, following EB's move.

Where is gold now -- is this a twenty year low? As I recall we are now at pre-1980 prices.

As Allen ( USA ) said, the trend in gold is a sign of desperation. There is something very wrong with our world-wide financial systems/Central Banks, as there is no way that deflation alone could explain how far gold has dropped. Unless -- we are only months away from massive deflation.

Either way it won't be long before LGB etal will be in for a big surprise -- some time after the current US market rally -- events will probably unfold early 1998.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:06 - ID#57232)
Energy Stock surge - Why?
All: Anyone know why the oil/ngas indicies are heading up? I sold my XAU puts, following EB's move.

Where is gold now -- is this a twenty year low? As I recall we are now at pre-1980 prices.

As Allen ( USA ) said, the trend in gold is a sign of desperation. There is something very wrong with our world-wide financial systems/Central Banks, as there is no way that deflation alone could explain how far gold has dropped. Unless -- we are only months away from massive deflation.

Either way it won't be long before LGB etal will be in for a big surprise -- some time after the current US market rally -- events will probably unfold early 1998.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:10 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter - 2:30 rally?
That's enough, time to fall off the cliff again
come baby....big gap down now
Transports just went negative
maybe the Kodak news unsettled da bulls a little..
hey, bears, it's supposed to be hibernation, not m--ing season
world bank just spanked EK, told em to quit whinning and let Fuji sell film.
careful bears..Billary to come on in a few to pump everybody up about economy

clinton long, talking tax cut.

Billary just started crowing

holy cow, tick shots up. what's the ...

sounds like a state of the union address..what is this?

the Chief Bullonostra is mooing ! to be expected..

it is my understanding that when the head criminal speaks his minion bobby executes a buy program, positive reinforcement you know

if this mrkt has to have a pres to juice up tick then it's doomed in the long run. Not that I wish it cuz noone, bears or bulls, will make a living in a bear market

Well, the plug really got pulled on ASND..

Good ol' boy
(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:11 - ID#26345)
Charles Keeling: Come on Charles!.
When I mining company borrows gold, it has to have a way to pay it back and the banker has to have a way to be paid. Presumably, the mining company has a defined ressource which mertis placing in produciton realzing a profit after repayment of the loan and and interest in gold or cash. It locks in the price by selling forward in order to assure that it will be able to do so.

This having been said, does anyone know if Pegasus was fully hedged. Did it sell sufficient amouonts of gold forward to offset the write off for Mt. Todd, perhaps even making a profit. I recall back in the early 89's Occidental made about $80 million on one mine by not mining one ounce of silver. Not a bad business if you are in the right position.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:13 - ID#295111)
CB Selling
Why is it that CB's who sell are in the spotlight? For example, we've been hearing much about Agrentina's sale. But why doesn't the media say where the gold went. Ie Does the media only want to praise Argentina et al so as not to lambast the buyer ( s ) of this gold? Ok, Saudi Arabia has bought some bought you never hear about that.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:14 - ID#295111)
Selling Gold
Do they want us to feel good when we sell gold and feel bad when we buy it?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:15 - ID#373346)
Good ol' boy
good article on Australian hedging:

I'll also post the article from Richard Pomboy on demand vs.
mineable supply.


(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:17 - ID#426220)
Silverbugs Take Heed -- Silverbears Be On Alert
SILVER SOARING AS I SPEAK - NOW UP 18 CENTS -- to 5.42!!!!!!!!!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:20 - ID#31868)
Lethal Gibberish Beckons, my dear fellow, your beliefs are those that would astound a mystic with a charge card.

Good ol' boy
(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:21 - ID#26345)
Appreicate your articulate comments and debate. Unfortunately, I am in the business and it is difficult right now, particularly for a U.S. miner, which has left me with time to communicate thoughts, such as they are. I would be better off selling stamps, but it would be boreing. Unfortunately, your last post re: Australia did not come through. Would like to see it.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:23 - ID#285233)
More BS
Spud Master - I fail to understand the stupidity/naivete of the citizenry. The deficit for this calendar year is approaching $170 billion and the government says it is $25 billion. Are we all just a bunch of LGBs??? And this is not a lie???
Also, the US government total for the national debt being close to $5.5 trillion is a lot of BS. Anyone familiar with accounting principles can tell you the difference between cash basis and accrual basis accounting systems.
The US government uses cash basis, hence $5.5 trillion. If accrual basis is used, as it should since it takes into account all the liabilities, then THe US government debt has now passed $20 TRILLION !!!
We are in deep s..t and they all know it. This paper shuffling will not last forever. The laws of economics have NOT been suspended, just postponed.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:24 - ID#373346)
Good ol' boy
I agree and disagree with some points that this gentleman
makes but his premises are pretty solid.

Gold loaning has filled the gap between demand and
mineable supply, and then some.

The article is long but if you have time print it out and


(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:25 - ID#227238)
Elf: Your uncharacteristic exhuberance has been duly noted and recorded. Alas, I am unable to respond on CDE. I have not been collecting data on it and have no realtime chart to look at.

Looking at others, - ABX, HM, NEM and etc - I get the impression that you are running on female intuition ( grin thing ) rather than positive feedback from the charts. Not entirely unwarranted, perhaps, but definitely premature. The best that can be discerned at this point is that the stocks are suddenly undecided. ( spinning tops, for the week )

HM moving to 11 or so would improve the picture measurably.

In the meantime, your sudden bullishness is improving my normally sullen outlook as well. Let's hope you are correct.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:28 - ID#7568)

There is a needless confusion here with regard to debt and deficits.

The US government is on a cash basis with respect to the deficit numbers. If they collect 10$ in taxes and spend $10 on whatever, the deficit will be zero. This is the state that we currently find ourselves, with a cash deficit near 0.

The extra debt which is being created is an accounting device to keep track of the amount of money being paid in taxes under the heading of Social Security minus the amount being spent on current social security recipients. For deficit calcultions this excess is included in the yearly figures as it is cash coming in.

Social Security is a pay as you go system. There is no reservoir of funds being accumulated to pay off the next generation of retirees. The bonds which the Social Security trust fund owns is simply a representation of the promise which the government has made. Other than that it is a fiction. These bonds which total about 1.5 trillion are different than bonds sold to the general public because they are being sold by the goverment to the government. If these bonds were erased from the computer memories tommorrow nothing would change. Our unfunded liabilities would remain exactly as they were. The only difference is that people would be less confused.

There is nothing nefarious in the accounting device. What is hideous is that it is obvious that future retirees will in no way be paid at nearly the same rate than present retirees are being paid. What is occuring is simply a transfer of wealth from my generation to my parents. I am happy that my parents are able to collect. On a family basis we are not too far from even. It is however ironic to note that my parents are probably more financially secure than I am and would be happy to help pay for my childs education if I so asked, but when I present them the facts of Social Security which are that it is a large wealth transfer from my generation to theirs they are in complete disbelief and denial.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:31 - ID#26793)
Debt and the dearth of prudent bankers.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:33 - ID#373346)
Good ol' boy
My last two links seem to be o.k. Let me know
again if you cannot download and I'll re-post.

Best of luck to you sir in your occupation.
Mundane is not in my vocabulary either. I'm leaving
sales to back to school, again. I hope the best
to you in your endeavors.


(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:33 - ID#57232)
Arlington National Cemetary Flap - not over yet?
Did everyone hear the news this morning that the Foreign service fellow that was buried in Arlington National Cemetary never served in the merchant marine ( as claimed ) ? The supporters of this decision said that the reason no records could be found because he served under an assumed name. Now we learn that he was supposed to have fallen overboard on a certain ship at a certain time, only to find out that the ship's roster did not have his name in it, and no one had fallen overboard at the time specified, and if he had, he would have died within a few minutes as the ship was in arctic waters.

I am getting tired of hearing stories of our American political leaders performing political favors with no consideration of legal or ethical issues. Stories such as this are becoming more frequent, indicating that the news media is tiring of the charade.

My guess is that after a market reversal, or a less than ideal military outcome, the press will no longer look favorably on matters such as these, and there will be a clamor for honesty in government.

I am getting tired of waiting -- its just like waiting for the gold rally, isn't it?

By the way -- gave a St. Gaudens to the significant other, who is not pro-gold bullion yet. However, as a medallion jewelry for her birthday it went over very well. I guess it is all in the presentation. Thanks, Tolerant1 for a hint from one of your posts months ago.

Charles Keeling
(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:37 - ID#344225)
@good ol boy
I agree. Some mines do engage in legit
hedging. Just like farmers who sell their crop
before it is harvested.

But---are Central Banks loaning ONLY to mines
who have developed a resource? Or do they have
the lattitude to make Gold Loans to others who
are not even in the mining business??????

Now, BRE-EX had a defined resource. Did they
sell forward?

My point is that others outside of mines are
borrowing gold from the Central Banks without
any way to pay back the metal at todays NEW
discouonted prices.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:37 - ID#284255)
EMU convergence unlikely by early '99 - UK's Brown
``It is unrealistic to assume you can assume the level of convergence that is necessary ... by January 1999, but it is not unrealistic to assume that a greater harmony in the business cycle can be achieved,''

Telefonica del Peru debt offer draws low demand
LIMA, Dec 5 ( Reuters ) - Telefonica del Peru ( TELb.LM ) ( NYSE:TDP - news ) placed just 6.0 million soles ( $2.2 million ) during a total 150 million soles ( $55.5 ) offer of commercial debt paper, the Lima stock exchange said Friday.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:40 - ID#188244)
The deficit is by definition ( of everyone but Congress and the fools who believe them ) the change in Debt outstanding. Period. It SHOULD take into account unfunded future liabilities, much as insurance companies do, but that is a subject for debate. You are displaying ignorance, not me.
As to VF, I have read pieces of the 'investigations'. I watched most of the D'Amato fiasco. It was a joke. I have read books by people, such as Pritchard, who claim no bias against Clinton. His evidence is substantial. There was no investigation of Foster's death by any law enforcement agency. Maybe I shouldn't believe Pritchard, but he hasn't been caught in a lie, whereas, as Safire would put it, the Clintons and everyone around them are surrounded in a 'blizzard of lies'.
As I've said at LEAST 4 times now, show me how Pritchard is wrong. Explain away all of the inconsistancies. Not even the White House did that- they simply ignored them, knowing they have a brain-dead audience out there following their 401Ks, oblivious to everything else.
I wish I could be like you, with a Disney World approach to life. But reason and logic, and all the dead bodies in Arkansas ( do you dispute the dead bodies? ) tell me otherwise..

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:42 - ID#171253)
Thank you all - I just LOVE this site!!! What FUN!!!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:43 - ID#333232)
Alene's Heart
Elf, Earl ( submitted for your review )
End of day chart - options at bottom of page

One hopes that "past performance is no guarantee of ..."

Spud Master
(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:43 - ID#273112)
DA: You wrote "The extra debt which is being created is an accounting device to keep track of the amount of money being paid in taxes under the heading of Social Security minus the amount being spent on current social security recipients."

No way. The Social Security scam is "off-book" and not part of the Treasury's debt and deficit numbers I posted.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:44 - ID#188244)
Not only that, but his secretary claims he had her research Merchant Marine ships that had been torpedoed in WW2. Then he joined a MM organization, then he put his service on his resume.
Next the White House will claim that the head injury caused him to forget the incident until later on in life. I'm only half joking.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:45 - ID#372344)
@ Is South Africa's Gold Production in crisis?
I feel it is in the interest of the Discussion group that we examine this issue ,in view of the major NEWS today in ZA NOW estimating something
like 100,000 miners to be laid off, ( 50% of SA Miners ) along with Harmony's announcement of about 2,000 miners laid off, and Anglogold's statement that substancial cuts in miners are coming. SA is one of the
world's major Gold producers, and if 50% of miners are laid off will that
translate into a 50% reduction in Gold production? This would certainly
be bullish for Gold. Also what longer term effect will this have on the
economic and political situation with the current high black unemployment rate and the crutial upcoming elections there.

Tantalus Rex- Thank-you for the apology.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:54 - ID#7568)

This is the breakdown of the debt as of Oct 1997. I believe that the line under nonmarketable securities, titled 'government account series' represents the Social Security bonds. Notice that the marketable securites have declined year over year. Low deficit plus printing of money to redeem outstanding paper does the trick.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:55 - ID#57232)
National Debt + Private debt = $30 Trillion US$!
WSF,LGB,D.A.: The federal national debt is closer to $15trillion US when Social security and other Government obligations are taken into account. The 2010-2015 deadline when Social security will be in arrears is the time when we shift from excess depositors into Social Security to excess retirees. Also the US government has used the current 3-4x excess social security contributions from all of those baby boomers to make the federal deficit look better than it really is. The United States is not the only country with a big debt in unfunded obligations, as I believe the Economist's review of the world economy has shown that Germany and France have done the same thing.

What is really disturbing is that private US debt consists of another $15 trillion. Little is said about this. Anyone who wants data on the latter can get it from the St. Louis Federal reserve Web site ( FRED ) - a wealth of downloadable economic and financial data.

Dave in CO
(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:55 - ID#215211)
This one ranks right up there with VF, but the news wires carried only the story only twice, once in the wee hours:

Barbara Wise, a 14 year employee of the Commerce Dept. working under John Huang who worked for Ron Brown, was found dead and semi-nude in her locked office in Nov., 1996. The autopsy was claimed to show death from natural but undetermined causes, whatever that means, and the investigation supposedly has not been closed. I know murders are common in D.C. but how common are they in Fed. buildings?

Why has there been no coverage of this story?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:56 - ID#31868)
Believe me, as the first person in my family to walk upright, I can truly appreciate those aspects of life that work without much thought. Gold like the truth comes in only one color.

Good ol' boy
(Fri Dec 05 1997 15:59 - ID#26345)
Charles Keeling
Don't know, but presume that they would if they could make a profit. Gold gathering dust must be distressing. But I would assume that if they loan an asset, they will want their security and that is just business. I have run across instances where CD holders pledge their CD as security for a third party thereby gaining a few points on top of the CD. I can envision someting like this happening with gold.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:02 - ID#201238)
Isn't this good reporting?


Gold ends lower

United Press International - December 05, 1997 15:50

The spot price of gold bullion settled higher in moderate North
American dealings ( Friday ) on the Comex, lifted by some pre-weekend
bargin hunting.

Analysts say the yellow metal was lifted from its lows by U.S.
Treasury bond selling on the back of the strong U.S. labor report.

However, traders noted the yellow metal still remained vulnerable to
downward pressure.

On the metals markets, in late trading on New York's Comex, a 100-
troy-ounce gold futures contract for December delivery rose by $1.90 to
$288.40 an ounce. Republic Bank said the cash price for gold rose by $2.
10 to $288.10 an ounce.

A 5,000-troy-ounce silver futures contract for December delivery rose
by 12.5 cents to $5.365. Republic's cash price rose by 13 cents to $5.42
an ounce.

In Europe, gold fell by $1.60 an ounce in Zurich at $287.95 and
declined by $1.50 an ounce in London to $287.75.

Silver rose by 2 cents an ounce in Zurich at $5.32 an ounce and rose
by 2 cents in London to the same $5.32 an ounce.

In Asia, gold fell by $3.88 an ounce to $286.75 in Hong Kong.


Copyright 1997 by United Press International.

All rights reserved.


(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:02 - ID#424345)
Thanks D.A.
For your 23:24 post on silver and for all your other very informative comments. I am starting to look at silver as less of an inflation play and more of an inventory play much like zinc a few years ago.

Good ol' boy
(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:09 - ID#26345)
Thanks for the reference. I read the article with interest. I agree that the speaker seems to be pretty much on. It would be helpful if he could provide a timing for such instances to happen. It seems the pendulum gets way out of whack before it starts to glide back to a more moderate stance.

This whole hedging controversy is difficult. Unquestionably, using 20/20 hindsight, a great many mines have been financed utilizing gold loans and hedging than should have been placed into production at today's price. Certainly conventional loans could have not been secured on such favorable terms without hedging and available, non producing gold hoards. But that is the way it works. Money was made and lost, postions were protected. Judged in terms of world above ground gold supply, the excess ounces are but a drop in the bucket. In the future, when the price of gold again rises, one can expect that identified high costs mines will again be brought into producetion- without much risk - by using the same formula and history will repeat itself.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:14 - ID#31868)
Let's get this straight and once and for all. The United States Government is the best looking whore you ever met, with AIDS. It feels great for a brief instant and then you die a slow death.

I said whore and not woman because the whore will grasp and hold you in her embrace and lie right through her teeth as she kills you.

A woman that loves you will embrace you, hold you, and your hand, laugh and cry with you, talk with you, and holds your belief and seed sacred as your do her's. ( no pun intended. )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:17 - ID#364147)
Apres Seakayaking
Expected to get back and see that the stock market had tanked as a result of the very strong employment report but up is down these days and it soared like one of the eagles I saw....In the 'olden days' ( geez am I gettin old or what ) it would have been down a hundred....Maybe this is a 'new era'---hmmmmmmmmmm......

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:21 - ID#424345)
to all: I think Savage may be on to something with his 1:07 post reprinted here for everyones ( re ) consideration. As Shulz said later the truth is often very simple....

"Date: Fri Dec 05 1997 01:07

Savage ( gold ) ID#280222:

Big Al and the boys have known for some time exactly what they are about. ( It is to my chagrin that I did not correctly interpret the signals/intent. ) They know precisely what gold will do once they turn the spigots on full; and, they'd rather start at 250 than 400. Can't say I blame 'em."

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:25 - ID#201238)
comex data

Comex warehouse silver stocks FELL 634,840 oz to 124,999,013 oz today.

Comex warehouse gold stocks FELL 33,476 oz to 694,132 oz. Eligible stocks fell 1,575 oz to 166,333 oz ( guess it was time to return some of the 'flash' )

Eligible stocks now stand at .83 oz for each 100 oz contract outstanding.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:26 - ID#31868)
With all due respect, yours not mine. What AG and the rest try and accomplish means nothing, this puppy is way out of their hands.

Cut the globe up in three easy pieces. Work from there folks. Nothing all that complicated, really.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:27 - ID#338452)
Charles Keeling

Dear Charles:

"Those who are borrowing GOLD from CB'S can not
repay the GOLD that they are borrowing. "


You see it exactly. However, the problem I have is that it might be thought as an incorrect or wrong thing to do. Let me first state that it IS an inconvenience for those who want to see the prices of precious metals go higher. Sometimes though, you just can't convince the market that that's what should happen no matter how much you wish for it. You can even pray a lot if you think that Soros will listen to you. You can howl at the next full moon or all the planets in a row ( as famous and infamous persons have noted ) if you want, but please don't blame the market for wrong guesses. This ia a zero sum game. You win by taking someone elses money. It's really easy to play. Just be with the trend, and over time, things will go your way. Fight the trend, and you lose. Money in the bank.....Your money, my bank .....

If the CB's feel it's in their best interest to sell/loan their gold. knowing full well the lack of supply will cause the chances of not getting their gold back, then what's wrong with that? Maybe it's a convenient way for them to monitise their gold holdings. Maybe they'll actually make a profit doing it, as Australia has been proven correct, now that gold is at less than $290. I know it goes against all on this site hold sacred, but it may not have been the wrong thing to do at all. A pain for those on the other side of the ledger ( the losers ) for sure, but that's the game isn't it.

"This is not normal business at todays GOLD prices;
it is instead fraud. Perhaps the biggest ponzi
scheme that has ever been hatched. "

Who says? Looks normal to me. Selling before the prices drop further seems an appropriate action. I've always been taught to limit my loses by selling when stocks drop below my threshold of pain. Normal market actions to me ..... Perhaps you're confused with what is to what you want to happen?

"Those of you who are posting on this board and
extolling the virtues of papeer are posting on
the wrong board."

Sorry to disagree once again. The whole world is extolling the value of paper ( bailouts are in paper, not gold, aren't they? ) . Paper is king UNTIL/UNLESS there are changes to the values we place on the trust that paper demands. You may be absolutely correct that the piper may have to eventually be paid, however, your children and grand children may be the ones to actually see it happen. To actually say that those who think differently than " gold bugs " should not post here is not appropriate but is dreaming yet again. We must always be open to other opinions and views even though they may not co-inside with our own wants and dreams for they may actually be saying what really is, rather than what we desire it to be. A dose of reality is like a breath of fresh air. You don't necessarily recognise it, since it's a change from old stale air, even though you may need it more than you realize.

After all that, I'd love for gold to go to $400 by January. I'd love for LGB to be nice and friendly. I'd love for the Toronto Blue Jays to win the pennant and kick some American butt. Will they happen? Maybe, but the trend says not quite yet . See what I mean?


(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:27 - ID#373346)
Good ol' boy
You have also hit the nail on the head!
Financing is getting very difficult for the
multitude of juniors and majors who are
either partially or non-hedged, or as hedges

Money has basically been drying up from
the lack of institutional support. This will
affect supply 3-5+ years down the road.

The pendelum will come back. No guarantees
on when though.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:33 - ID#201238)
if they don't print this, they should!

I sent this out before the sun came up.

Alan Ableson


Dear Mr. Abelson:

Could you explain to me what is going on at Comex? Two weeks ago, they released news deep in the dark of night on a Friday that one of their depositories, Swiss Bankcorp no less, had to put it kindly 'misplaced' twenty-five million dollars of gold and silver bullion and were no longer in the business of being a Comex depository. The Press has said little of this. Now, if you examine the data released by Comex you will see that there is 167,908 oz of gold eligible for delivery against the 194,000 or so outstanding contracts, or less than one ounce per 100 ounce contract. Yes, I know this is another 500,000 oz. sitting in the depositories, but it is just sitting there. It is not obligated against any outstanding contract. Just before each large expiration first notice day about half of this gold suddenly 'appears' in Comex depositories. Within a month it is gone only to reappear three months later. Maybe someone is borrowing it for show purposes? And then again, they write derivatives against this Comex position? Talk about a house of cards! Tell me Mother Hubbard, is the cupboard bare?

Arden L. Larson
Box 91253
Henderson, Nevada 89009


(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:35 - ID#284255)
Whats wrong here
Dow indu, oex, inx, nya.x all in lock-step - identical charts @ 60mins @
Dow transports and utilities fizzed out no real gains.
Yen gone crazy 130+

Pacific Northwest Dave
(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:37 - ID#223187)

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:39 - ID#373346)
The CB's are shooting themselves in the foot.
They are loaning gold for a small profit all the
while the paper value of their gold holdings has
tanked to the tune of $170 Billion.

As for everything else, I agree wholeheartedly
Charles. Everyone has a right to view their

I for one would love to see gold soar!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:43 - ID#22956)
Checking In.........and I don't like what I see :-0
Ted - you STOP that New Era BU#%$hi#! talk......we'll have nonna that er i'll come and kick yer goldbug A#*!! patrol Kitco!



(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:44 - ID#364147)
Dinner is being prepared
On the menu---Dal + Couscous.....with a new batch of Ted's brownies ( yummy yummy in the tummy ) in the oven~~~~~ Hey Earl!--speakin of eatin 'stuff'--thought you were takin off ta get some A.P.?? Was lookin forward to a blow-by-blow description ( grin thingy ) ....

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:44 - ID#24140)
Zaddeekian analysis
For Zaddeek

Oh mighty one, Who but you with your wisdom and razor like

intellect would have immediately realized that if you cut

the number of mineworkers in half, you will cut the production

in half. Gad man, that would NEVER have even occurred to me, I

would have thought that maybe production would fall by 10-15 %

and COSTS would be cut by 30-40%. How unbelievably stupid of me

- I will not only treasure this analysis forever, I will frame it

after first keeping it under my pillow in hopes that some of the

great wisdom contained therein would transmigrate into my poor

brain while I lie in fitfull sleep.

Keep up thy wondrous work. I live in hope that we will meet some

day and you will bring me true enlightenment, inshallah

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:45 - ID#269409)
Kiwi, Tolerant, Nick, WSF, DaveinCO, et al...misreported numbers...
Can you guys believe it? This has to be a manufactured number. DOW and markets up 1+ % today? Up yet another 98 points?? I think what actually is occurring, is that the DOW has crashed down to 328 points from it's highs, and the Govt. conspirators are misreporting these numbers with the help of their media co-conspirators! It's all a massive sham, gotta be, after all, everyone here said we had our "topping pattern" months ago and Oct. 27th was the beginning of a massive crash!

Bastards, don't they know we're catching on to the fact that AIDS was an experiment by the CIA gone awry, Elvis was killed because Marilyn Monroe told him too much about the Kennedy assasination by LBJ and Co., Preventitive innoculations are actually substances which cause complacency in the populace ( administered by the FBI undercover ops of course ) , Flt 800 was shot down by the Tri-lateral controlled U.S. Armed services who seceretly replaced hundreds of investigators with clones, "Homeopathic" rememdies are being kept from the market by the medical community, The "World Trade Center" bombing was engineered by the military / industrial complex, and Aliens are behind Global warming..

Damn, when are them guy's gonna tell us the truth!

Pacific Northwest Dave
(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:45 - ID#223187)
What's up with silver and what's down with gold?

Why is silver moving up so quickly and gold gone down so much? I sold a little bit of my silver holding yesterday thinking that silver would drop like gold did yesterday, boy did I goof! Does anybody out there think that gold has bottomed out and that silver will perhaps adjust downward? I just discovered this group and my wife feels like I've abandoned her!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:47 - ID#20137)

Date: Fri Dec 05 1997 15:11
Good ol' boy

I don't know if you got an answer on PGU. I haven't owned it for a year or so, but I looked up in the 96 annual report.

page 9

"Historically, the company has cuddessfully hedged its gold production. ... In view of the current weak gold market, Pegasus has maintained price protection on at least 20 percent of its reserve base. For 1997, 78 percent of the Company's gold production is hedged with a minimum average price of $431 per ounce. The Company uses a combination of forward contracts , and put and call options to hedge its gold production into furture years...."

That's is why yesterday, I was questioning what is going on with all these big hedgers. It would seem to me they whould be laughing all the way to the bank ... has something gone wrong with this approach? What a surprise that would be.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:47 - ID#364147)
nuff said~~~~~~~~~~~~~away ta PIG-OUT $$$$$$$

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:48 - ID#269409)
Pacific North Dave
Buy that Silver back post haste dude! Gold is incredibly weak because CB's can sell ibno the market for another 2 decades with the amount they have stockpiled, Silver on the other hand....above ground inventory alomst gone, demand and sonsumption outstripping supply for many years wher eleft to go from here but WAY up!!! ( Unless you believe RJ's theory that a big big pile is being hidden someplace...a possibility and the only real risk factor )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:48 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
How many people live in south k.? 60,000,000,000 is a lot of cheese. What did these folks do to drop 60 big ones? That comes to about $250 for every human that lives in the US. Only way I figure you could drop 60 B is to borrow 120 billion and buy Jap stocks a few years ago. Guess that would leave you a little short on a margin call.....Seriously does anyone know what SK did to need 60 billion to just survive?

to those of you looking at the gold market....the asians aren't supporting it in anyway and therefore it will continue to go down...........

if you look at the cost of production against to the firms mining the gold the moment it is costing them money to mine it..........yes they do forward sell but who would be forward selling at the moment..........$11 under the cost of production...Any US or canadian gold stock at the moment must be in dire straights...

with the Aussie producers they do have an advantage but even that at the moment it almost at losing level too..........Fact is gold is moving into a depreciating time and with the amount of gold out in the market at the moment we could see gold miners close down for at least for a good ten years........Also the jews are after the germens for compensation,if the do succeed then the bunduas bank will have to look at selling gold also to pay for the countries mistakes

so korea know has a heap of dollars to protect it'self from the world speculators.........Will it be enough

also ....with the US not prepared to help out as much as they should have will this haunt them......

by this I mean....It is a fact that the only 2 power currencies against the $us is the mark and the yen.....both aren't in great shape either....So with the US currency moving higher against all other currencies in the world it will be almost impossible for the US to compete against the Asian now that there goods will also be even cheaper than the US you have to ask what the hell will the US goverment do..........

if they look to raise rates that will increase the rise in the currency....if they cut rates then they run the risk of over depression....increase taxes....well that won't really help there problem .....So they really are in trouble

A Japanese bank in Ca. has asked Goldman Sachs to sell it for them.
It has been there since 1925.
IMF said that SK was 10 days away from disaster.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:52 - ID#20137)
As Cherokee has pointed out I can't spell, I don't transcribe well either, sorry
cuddessfully = successfully

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:53 - ID#269409)
@ WSF, VF killed by secret operatives, how else to explain inconsistencies?
WSF, re your 15:40. You didn't serve on the OJ jury by any chance did you?

Good ol' boy
(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:55 - ID#26345)
A. Goose
Thanks for the Pegasus info. Saw somwhere that Barrick and some of the larger companies could cover realizing $500 million, $800 million, numbers which stuck in my mind. I do not think Pegasus was that well covered but am not sure. Report is that they are way low on cash which isn't good. .

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:57 - ID#333232)
You haven't heard? Atomic test blasts in the late forties atomically altered the geologic strata in New Mexico/Nevada/Utah - Creating a subspace beacon which was interpreted as "last fuel for 5 million light years" by passing extraterrestrials . The irradiated substrata contains gold ( which is reputed to be the best "octane" fuel for the interstellar vehicles ) and as such the Fed has been selling this fuel at a premium for years.
Some days everything just falls into place.... ( really stupid tongue-in-cheek winky grin thing )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:57 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.24 This is a new 31 year high. Several times today the ratio bounced against 28.29 but was unable to penetrate. Curiously, the same thing happened yesterday as the 28.29 number could not be broken when the Dow was 100 points lower and gold was priced $2 less.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:59 - ID#284255)
Asian news
Economic crash course jolts savers
The collapses this year of a major life company, the fourth-biggest stockbroker and the tenth-largest bank has given consumers a crash course in market forces.

Cravatted foreigners add insult to South Korea's injured soul
It was the ultimate indignity. After enduring decades of Japanese rule and building a potent economy from the ground up, how could things get so bad that cravatted foreigners would have to save the day?

CHINA Land boom heads for huge bust
THERE are danger signs that China's vast real estate bubble is at risk of collapse amid warnings that failed property speculation could wreak havoc on the mainland's fragile financial system.
The official Economic Information Daily this week warned that China was in danger of a real estate crisis that was "amazingly similar" to those that have dragged down banks in Japan and South-East Asia.
"No-one knows how much bank lending has been poured into real estate projects through direct or indirect channels," the paper said in a lengthy commentary published on Tuesday.
"The real danger in the Chinese real estate industry is the tendency to hide signs of this sickness out of fear of the treatment."
All over the country, there is evidence of ill-conceived and poorly timed property projects.
"In today's China, over-investment in real estate is not an isolated case.
"Even some property investment companies in small counties owe banks millions and even tens of millions of yuan in loans which have already become bad debts.
"This shows that China's real estate investment system needs immediate reform."

(Fri Dec 05 1997 16:59 - ID#20137)
Date: Fri Dec 05 1997 16:48
LGB ( Pacific North Dave ) ID#269409:

I believe you LGB, but it is frustrating seeing silver do so well and silver stocks like

SSRIF 3:48PM 3 3/4 -3/16 -4.76% 16,300.

I am not harassing you, I own the stock, I am just frustrated.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 17:05 - ID#26793)
South Korea may still be only 10 days from disaster. The Korean unions do not like the deal. The U.S. unions do not like the deal. The U.S. and Korean public do not like the deal. The U.S. Congress which must vote to kick in some money runs for reelection in 11 months.

The only people who like the deal are the bankers who won't get repaid unless it happens.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 17:07 - ID#28571)
Hadn't thought of that.
Front. I forgot about the criticism of the Australian government for their selling earlier this year. What price did these unfortunates sell at?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 17:07 - ID#269409)
2 CMH ....Pssssst
You know I DID hear about that, them Hale Bopp Heaven's gate folks knew about it too I hear! They be smarter than you & me!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 17:08 - ID#284255)
More news
IMF medicine makes you sick, say critics
The image of the International Monetary Fund as a doctor prescribing painful medicine to counter economic Asian flu is not persuasive to a growing number of influential United States critics.
Despite the strong support of the White House for IMF rescue packages, many economists are warning that the IMF's imposition of drastic cuts in government spending, tighter credit and slower growth will make matters worse in Asia.
They say the IMF measures are an over-reaction that will transform a regional currency crisis into a fully fledged economic recession - if not depression - with damaging global consequences.
"The currency crisis is not the result of Asian government profligacy," Mr Sachs wrote. "This is a crisis made privately in the private, albeit under-regulated, financial markets."

Vatican linked to Nazi camp thefts
As the London conference on the Nazis' stolen gold concluded here, the spotlight fell on the Vatican - the one repository of secret files yet to open itself to scrutiny
"The Vatican is a great moral centre of this world," he said. "For its own sake, it is of the utmost importance for it to co-operate with this international ethical and moral effort to uncover the truth.
"The most important concept we have been promoting is transparency. That is contradicted by the Vatican's unwillingness to make available archives relevant to this period."

(Fri Dec 05 1997 17:16 - ID#390214)
COT report (spec's short up to 60,488)


-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE







10,682 71,170 15,420 145,406 79,655 171,508 166,245 23,032 28,295


995 1,721 -541 12,032 5,796 12,486 6,976 -10,477 -4,967


5.5 36.6 7.9 74.7 40.9 88.2 85.5 11.8 14.5


26 45 11 37 40 67 94



-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE







9,687 69,449 15,961 133,374 73,859 159,022 159,269 33,509 33,262


-4,018 5,095 974 -7,114 -18,584 -10,158 -12,515 -11,664 -9,307


5.0 36.1 8.3 69.3 38.4 82.6 82.7 17.4 17.3


26 47 13 34 39 66 94

Date: Fri Dec 05 1997 17:09
LGB (@ SHarefin, Asian News/Gold) ID#269409:
Hmm Sharefin, all that bad Asian news mean that they'll be dishoarding and selling even MORE of their Gold, depressing the price yet FURTHER?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:01 - ID#258129)
If EMU will really happened, Euro will probably replace US$ as a worlds reserve currency. IMHO

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:08 - ID#225283)
Tolerant1 & all

Just listened to Jimmy Rodgers on CNBC and he was talking about his continued bearish stance n gold as well as mentioned that he had "written several articles about why ... bearish on gold, and is not only the CB's"!

My question is does anyone know where to find these articles. Does Rodgers holdings have a website?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:10 - ID#426220)
GOLD VERSUS THE DOLLAR by Milhouse (Hong Kong)
Hong Kong analyst Milhouse shares his latest economic and financial wisdom. Again, he draws special attention to the significance of Money Supply. Correctly he observes, If confidence in financial assets and government controlled currencies was to significantly reduce, then the total gold reserves of all Central Banks ( worth 320 billion dollars at current gold prices ) could be absorbed in an instant by private investors.

Of monumental import is his assertion that  must be
remembered that there are 3.8 billion ounces of gold in the world
and the supply is increasing by ( ONLY ) 1.75% each year ( probably less for the next few years due to mine closures ) , WHEREAS there are 5,300 billion US dollars in the world, and the supply is increasing by 9% each year. The end result is obvious.

Bill El Zebub
(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:10 - ID#261352)
CNBC,Jim Rogers,Sue Herrera to A.Goose et al
When Sue put forth the advantage of AU regarding Far East investors,Jim said, yeah, better than a declining currency. But, even better, buy tin, oil, etc. Said he was bearish on AU due to CB selling.

If CB selling goes awry, and we catch the asian contagion does he change his mind?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:12 - ID#194311)
LGB...I'd rather have chinese food rammed down my throat than yankee righteousness
Clinton Guarded On Climate Talks
President Clinton is guardedly optimistic about the
possibility of reaching a global agreement to reduce greenhouse
gases. Asked if compromise on the issue -- which is being
discussed at a conference in Japan -- is impossible, Clinton
said not if everybody wants an agreement. He said the U.S.
position is that it's a global issue. Ministers from 160
nations, including Vice President Al Gore, will gather in Kyoto
Monday to make a final push for an agreement that reduces
emissions blamed by many scientists for warming the planet. Poor
nations' anger at being asked to take part in efforts to cut
global warming boiled over Friday, when China and India led
criticism of the United States and other rich nations for not
doing enough.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:12 - ID#225283)

Regarding the Euro :

Have you been following the "test" that has been going on in France with the special Euro coins that were minted just for the test. Various merchants have been accepting FFR or Euro coins as a test marketing program to benefit the MS society of France.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:16 - ID#26793)
Just in time etc. Well said, as usual for you. The UPS strike comes to mind. As does Union Pacific problems. As does the next snowstorm. I know a guy who had a $20,000,000 collection of car dealerships that went bankrupt because a bank clerk deposited a $50,000 check in the wrong account. His checks started bouncing, deliveries stopped, he was tapped out and couldn't borrow more and the whole thing collapsed because he was running on a shoestring with no reserves. He couldn't last the few days he needed to straighten it out.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:17 - ID#225283)

Jimmy was saying that is was not only the CB selling that makes him bearish opn Gold but several other factors that he has written about in several articles!

My question is Where do we find those articles he spoke of......Hey Donald....or any one else ........

Does anyone recall reading such articles.....if so ...where ....when....and which publication?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:19 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Just want to say that I finally realized that I have no chances
of getting interest from you on my advise ( which you treasured )
on asking for the second ( real accounting ) book when you are in
Russia talking business with Russians.

All right, no problem, you can have it for free....

Disconnecting on the subject of Russian platinum and my advise...

I will treasure your opinion on South Africa mines - do you think
it is safe in long term to buy their stocks? I mean do you expect
any serious ( very serious ) political problems in RSA which could
effect SA mining industry in the long-term ( 3-5 years ) ?

I believe you know better than me, I have only a very plain
understanding that problems are growing.

Your comments will be appreciated.

Bill El Zebub
(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:20 - ID#261352)
@Charles Keeling 17:45
I'm with you all the way! Sell the house,wife,cat!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:21 - ID#26669)
test: new server
Of all the white knuckle times for my server to go down!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:23 - ID#258129)
PrivateInvestor: There is much more simple test, I am doing often: give DM coins in Netherlands and NL coins in Germany in the shop. No problem, they take it. If you want to spend paper money, then they will convert it according to official rate. In the shop on the border they take both coins and paper without any problems, or can exchange without bank fee

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:23 - ID#225283)

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:23 - ID#31868)
LGB2 as child
My dear little, you poor misguided starving for an immediate. Take your brain into the wild and eat yourself.

Bill El Zebub
(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:25 - ID#261352)
@ PrivateInvestor for Jimmy stuff.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:25 - ID#225283)

Were is your Home?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:26 - ID#210114)
Cost of Holding gold
One of the posts about Bundesbank gold said that the Bbank was using its loan proceeds to pay for the expensive cost of holding gold.

Could someone explian to me why it is so expensive? Apart from a comprehensive security system I really can't see why it should be so. Its not like you need refrigeration or anything.

Please explain

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:26 - ID#372344)
@ South Africa Gold Production crisis?
It appears more likely than not that a crisis in SA Gold production is looming in the not too distant horizon. With one of the highest cost per
oz depleting gold mines, and probably the only country where the Miners UNIONS have increased 130% since 1985 and where just last thursday
Harmony fired 2000 striking Miners for failure to return to work and estimates of about 50% of all gold miners to be laid off ,add to this the
already high rate of Black unemployment, the SA Rand at an all time low
vs the US$ , the potentially explosive political situation and you likely have IMHO a substancial reduction of Gold production from SA, which would be Bullish indeed for GOLD. Anyone who believes you can cut 50% of the miners in a labour intensive operation and only reduce Gold production by 10% is fitfully dreaming in technicolour.

See also Kiwi post 17:39 "Dire consequenses for SA."

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:27 - ID#225283)

Thank you very that you have pointed it out I think I had emailed one of the articles to some friends in Hawaii , but I forgot were I piced it up . Mahalo!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:28 - ID#426220)
Lagrimas de la Luna -- Tears of the Moon
The Peruvian Incas called Silver "Lagrimas de la Luna." Well, since August this year they have been tears of JOY, as Silver Futures are UP 23% since the DOW high in mid-August, and while the shiny yellow continued to dribble downwards. Just today Silver Futures closed UP 12.5 cents ( +2.4% ) . And while the XAU relentlessly ground downwards, silver stocks have indeed been shinny examples of appreciation.

Rothschilds, Soros & RJ CANNOT BE WRONG

We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the Poor Mans Gold -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year Goldbugs Weekly Comment.

In Cormiers report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! -posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Lets capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%
Silver Standard ( SSO ) ...............UP 57%
International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%
First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) ..........UP 86%
United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%
Clifton Mining ( CFB ) ................Down 4%

Thats an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! - the current daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:30 - ID#225283)
Cost of gold storage

The real expense is the lost opportunity cost of using the same space which could have been used to store private gold holdings.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:31 - ID#284255)
What, why, who, where and how?
A Goose
The other day I posted this but it drew no attention.
Is it true and what are they up to?
Date: Wed Dec 03 1997 20:38
sharefin ( Net chatter ) ID#284255:
said that his boys in the currency markets in NY were telling him that Greenie has made a deal with Japan. They will take the treasuries and give them cash but they have to buy them back in 1- 1/2 yrs. So it is all being done thro the back door. He said that this was not confirmed but the boys in NY are usually correct.
 Cover story: When the world started to melt
 What will go wrong next?
 Hedge funds: you can run but you can't hide
 Country risk ranking: It could be worse
 Europe's takeover boom gathers pace
 Credit derivatives: You ain't seen nothin' yet
 Emu: How Emu will change the bond market
 Latin American: Ten months good, two months bad
 Bank capital: Turning away from common stock
 Trade finance: Forfaiting for fun and profit
THOMSON BANKWATCH is the world's largest bank credit rating agency, providing ratings, analysis and research on over 1000 financial institutions in more than 85 countries. THOMSON BANKWATCH serves its clients from offices in New York, London, Hong Kong, Sydney, Kuala Lumpur, Moscow and Cyprus and with partners and representatives around the globe.

THOMSON BANKWATCH is a division of Thomson Financial Services, a leading provider of quality financial information, research, analysis, and software products to the global investment and corporate communities. Part of The Thomson Corporation, a $7.7-billion company based in Toronto, Thomson Financial Services employs more than 5,500 people in nearly 40 offices around the world.
Maybe it would be worth lurking around THOMSON BANKWATCH
Written by Michael Belkin
The developement of downright fraud, imposing on a public which had grown credulour and gullible, is now upon us. The perpetrators believe their own propaganda-if not as an article of faith, then simply because their own compensation depends on it. Strategists casually dismiss extreme overvaluation with "New Era" rationalizations. Brokerage house analysts gush on enthusiastically, extrapolating past earnings growth rates years out into the future. Technicians ignore record deviation above long-term trend. Corporate executives award themselves share options and then use corporate funds in share buy-backs to increase their personal compensation. The hedge fund cabal colludes to paint the tape by buying thousands of S&P500 and Treasury Bond futures, to create momentum that squeezes in mutual fund buyers and squeezes out short-sellers. The government releases market-friendly economic data and only presentsunpleasant surprises through revisions of prior releases. Companies leak guidance to Wall Street analysts so earnings reports slightly exceed lowered expectations. Analysts inform their largest clients before upgrading or downgrading stock ratings. Banks and Fed officials resist accounting standards that would shed daylight on the true market value of huge leveraged derivative positons. Questionable firms ( whose cash flow will shrivel in the next recession ) issue low-rated junk bonds to satisly investor's craving for high rates of return. Marketing departments persuade individual investors that exposure to the most overvalued market in U.S. history is the only way they can achieve financial security. America's exposure to risk has expanded exponentially. The credulour and gullible public cannot see through the dense communal fog of late speculative bubble psychology.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:31 - ID#20137)
Date: Fri Dec 05 1997 17:08
sharefin ( More news ) ID#284255:

It is unlikely that the Japanese would hold the US bonds and sell gold. The need cash not interest income. Besides they have two problems:

1. paying debts
2. defending the yen

Selling US bonds generates income to buy debts while at the same time undermining confidence in the US dollar. Selling US bonds kills two birds with one stone.

I posted early this week ( tuesday Ken Courtis talk ) , that the Japanese needed to move very quidkly to shore up their problems. If they didn't the crisis would go worldwide. I haven't seen the required actions, thus I expect a brutal week coming up.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:32 - ID#26793)
Jim Rogers Home Page

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:35 - ID#20137)
So some don't have to look it up, here's the earlier post
Date: Tue Dec 02 1997 08:44
A.Goose ( Good morn ing America ... ) ID#256254:
At the Gold show Dr. Kenneth Courtis gave a tightly worded well thought out talk on "The Economic
Furture of the Pacific Region". He mentioned a lot of items that have been discussed here, and it is well
worth getting hold of. I suspect that he has a write up on it. He is the First Vice President Deutsche Bank
Capital Markets ( Tokyo ) - maybe someone can get a copy of it??

Anyway he mentioned two things that caught my attention:

1. He said that South Korea was caught in selling forward gold and that is one of the reasons the price of
gold had fallen. ( I would love to find out more about this, including how selling forward and losing your
shirt would cause gold to go down??? ) Unfortunately, there was no time for a question session or I
would have asked him. Anyone know him ??? Or know the answer.

2. He also mention that he thought that this very,VERY serious problem with Japan and that it would be
solved in the next few days. Japan would decide to use public funds to shore up the banking sector,
deregulate, cut taxes, and generally reverse its present course ... . The Japanese MUST move NOW,
there is NO time to spare.

As I stated, He felt very comfortable that they would do this within days. When they this move,the bull
market would get back on track ... .

He feels that if they don't act soon, the problem will go golbal and it gets very very bad.

This gentleman was very impressive and seemed to be aware of the realitites of the asian problem. He
would be a good reference if anyone has a contact to him or his work.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:35 - ID#225283)
Wall Street Week

Any predictions about this weeks show boys and girls?

It should be good for a few belly laughs.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:35 - ID#57232)
Heading home --
sharefin: You mentioned "topping phase" in your swing chart. Do we still have "lock step"? I noticed in my charts a short term bullish trend on the order of weeks. If Russia and Brazil are the next dominos over the next few weeks, the "flight to safety" might keep the US rally going for some more time, in analogy to the 1929 situation, when the US markets were the last to go. Just a thought ----

All: Interesting how silver just won't go down, isn't it? Looks like silver is now fully decoupled from gold -- it seems very likely that the longer this difference is evident, the more likely that gold will rally. Sort of like the oil/gold situation I think - just a matter of time.

The Central banks cannot keep leading or selling gold indefinitely - the farther gold goes down, the more gold loans and sales are necessary for the same proportionate drop in the gold price. Just like the basketball in the swimming pool -- the farther you push it down the harder it gets -- and more intense the "explosion" when you release the basketball!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:39 - ID#258129)
PrivateInvestor: Netherlands

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:44 - ID#372344)
IMF lowers estimates made only 3 months ago for world GDP from 4.5%
to 3.5% because of SE Asia crisis.

Steve - Perth
(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:47 - ID#284177)
Steves specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

IMF medicine makes you sick, say critics

S.Korea media knock U.S., Japan on IMF bailout

IMF has the tigers by the tail - or does it?

World heads for soft landing after Asia crisis - The Maverick

Trouble brewing in Indonesia?

Is Deflation making a comeback? Nightly Business Report

Asia: assessing the pain and possibly some gain

LionOre pounces on weakened Aust Res

Shock death of a futures fund

Killer bird flu could fly around the world in 24 hours

MOSSAD SPY SCANDAL: Israel, Syria "came to the brink of war"

Iraq crisis not over


The changing nature of economic crises
Reserve Bank Governor Ian Macfarlane

Japan shows worst growth rate since '74

The good, the bad and the ugly banks of Asia

Concern over Japanese Life Companies

IMF quietly hijacks separate Asian rescue fund

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:49 - ID#210114)
Oz Gold Sales
Selby, Australian gold sales averaged $US 350/ounce

Bill El Zebub
(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:51 - ID#261352)
Korea gold forward sales,Ausi sales,Japan buying,EMU selling?A.Goose,et al.
Boyant economies selling,faltering economies buying. Will the US,
Australia, Europe start buying once ASIA bottoms? If it bottoms.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:52 - ID#159156)
Silver's Future
If the Aden Sisters say silver is going to $8.00 next year, I believe them.

Check out this silver play. A forgotten treasure?

... 75.0 feet averaging 0.51 oz/ton gold and 272.6 7.95 oz/ton silver...

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:52 - ID#225283)

Thank you for Jimmy Rogers homepage.

Just a comment regarding your dealer buddy. Most people do not realize that moswt dealers have millions stied up in the ownership of those dealerships and very thin margins. The average US dealer makes less than $100 net on the sale of a new US auto. He must make his money on the trade, finace , extended warranties, and future repairs.

I funded an auto export venture a while back and it has huge potential, but you could not pay me to own or invest in a traditional dealership in the United States.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:55 - ID#269191)
Jimmy Rogers
Why does anybody listen to this man? He has been predicting increasing
inflation and rising commodity prices for ever since I have been listening to him. So far no inflation and commodity prices are falling.
He also said after the 1987 stock market crash that we were headed into
depression. The man is frequently wrong. Soros used to work with him and said he was a fool at timing the market. Why does he have any special expertise in gold? The facts are these: commercial demand for
gold exceeds mine output and scrap by at least 1500 tons per year and
probably much higher next year. The borrowed gold position is a minimum
8,000 tons and probably much larger. The entire remaining reserves of
the central banks can be bought at today's spot price for about $210 billion. That's about $60 billion mor than the hedge funds have in capital ( at full leverage they have about 1.5 trillion $ ) . The problem with gold is that it is perceived as having lost its safe haven status to
the dollar. Accordingly the shorts are able to continue their operations
with impunity with gold borrowed from the central banks. When the dollar
looses its luster as a safe haven, then gold will soar.

The dollar's days as kingpin are numbered. The soaring trade deficit as a result of the dollar's rise against every major currency coupled with
the relatively brisk U.S. economy will be its demise. When the dollar starts its sustained drop the economy will slow and interest rates ( long
and short ) will rise. Stocks will drop and gold will once again be perceived as the safe haven. As for the Euro replacing the dollar, I
doubt it. The Euro will be a soft currency backed primarily by U.S. $
and a small gold position. Why would anybody flee the dollar for a currency backed by $? If the Europeans have the pretension of replacing the dollar, they better make the Euro convertible into gold.

Steve - Perth
(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:56 - ID#284177)
Link to Steve's News page fixed!

IMF medicine makes you sick, say critics

S.Korea media knock U.S., Japan on IMF bailout

IMF has the tigers by the tail - or does it?

World heads for soft landing after Asia crisis - The Maverick

Trouble brewing in Indonesia?

Is Deflation making a comeback? Nightly Business Report

Asia: assessing the pain and possibly some gain

LionOre pounces on weakened Aust Res

Shock death of a futures fund

Killer bird flu could fly around the world in 24 hours

MOSSAD SPY SCANDAL: Israel, Syria "came to the brink of war"

Iraq crisis not over


The changing nature of economic crises
Reserve Bank Governor Ian Macfarlane

Japan shows worst growth rate since '74

The good, the bad and the ugly banks of Asia

Concern over Japanese Life Companies

IMF quietly hijacks separate Asian rescue fund

( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 18:56 - ID#20137)
Date: Fri Dec 05 1997 18:31
sharefin ( What, why, who, where and how? ) ID#284255:

I remember hearing that story when it first came up. What if? And then the story came out, not to worry because they had work out this deal so that the Japanese could cash out at anytime without having to dump on the market. I think it was maybe 18 months or 2 years ago.

I tend to believe that some level of agreement should have been worked out. Otherwise I have no information on this story.

We know that governments buy securities, bonds, ... whatever here and abroad whenever needed. The real question is when do their playmates finally lose confidence. Remember the Soviet Union kept up the Rouse quite a long time, as have others. At some point, disasters occur even when governments work behind the scenes. It confuses everyone and they final can't afford to play - to scary, to dangerous. I think that's where we are now.

As far as Jimmy Rogers is concerned. He is the tops, even though he doesn't like gold. Mind you he owns a little, but it is not his choice as he said again today. Please note, Jimmy has always said he can never pick bottoms or tops and I believe that is the game we are playing now. Jimmy is correct that the CB's make gold a messy investment. If we are working on a sea change then the CB's could also be the reason to turn gold on dime a drive it up like a rocket. Why and how? The why is based on its value as the only true money ... and enough has been said about that. The how is reversing selling to buying. Extremely simple and the results will be unbelievable. I don't think we need to argue about this. It seems to be close at hand, so close that it will be easier to watch and see rather than argue.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:01 - ID#372344)
@ Dow to Plunge 36%.
R.Morrow of "High Tech Growth Forcaster" calls Dow to Plunge 36% soon .

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:04 - ID#284255)
Marching in time?
Global indices yesterday were all in the black 95%.
European indices all followed the dow on opening in solid lock-step today.
Ftse was up 80 pts then when the employment data came out then fell to -5 before rebounding to close at +60.

Indu, nya.x, inx, oex all in perfect lock-step for the last week.

Swing chart coming to a topping phase indicating selling ahead.

Japan to commit themselves to public funds bail out soon?
Korea to accept draconian measures forced upon them?
Another failed japanese financial house article released after japan market closed.
Massive call position entered on oex yesterday.
Are they pushing the indices to sell the physical.
Plenty of large block sellers exiting positions today in many of the majors.
Internals today not healthy as per the last two weeks.
Up/down volume ratio's today, strongest for last two weeks,
Yet still bad internals.
Plenty to concern the markets next week.
I think it will get vicious before better.
No one but no one will be able to call the market prior to the crash.
It will come totally out of the blue, when the least expect it.
I rate the next two weeks as extremely high odds.
Beginning next week.

Funny how they released employment data, strong enough to spook the market. Not what I would have expected. They could have watered the figures down marginally. That they chose not to, makes me think that they wanted to use the data, as a tempering tool, to take a bit of the wind, out of the markets sails. This has obviously failed. Is AG going to have to jawbone them down again? I think he just tried to do it quietly.
If the markets move another % or two up, he will have to show his true colours. Stuck between a rock and a hard spot.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:06 - ID#26793)
True cost of oil is $100 per barrel

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:14 - ID#364147)
@ once again juggling the WSJ and the Simpsons
DOOOOOH....:PRECIOUS METALS: Precious metals prices ended mostly higher
Friday on the Comex division of the Nymex.

Among the metals, silver's rally seem to have to most staying power,
analysts said.

Silver drew strength from a fall in Comex warehouse stocks as well as an
upward move in gold. Traders said another bullish factor for silver was the
recent depreciation of the Indian rupee. Silver, rather than gold, is often
held in India as a hedge against the currency.

March silver jumped 12.3 cents to finish at $5.428 an ounce.

January platinum ended unchanged Friday at $381, while March palladium
added $1.50 to $207.50 an ounce, benefiting from the gains in silver and

Gold for February delivery was up $2 to $290.50 an ounce. On
Thursday, gold closed at its lowest level since February 1985.

LIVESTOCK: Meat and livestock futures retreated on the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange. February live cattle rose .32 cent to 68.50

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:15 - ID#315256)
@ TZaedeak...Dow plunge
That's not "RMorrow" who predicted it was Puetz saying TOmorrow, DOW would plunge 36%. ( Many times now )

Steve - Perth
(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:16 - ID#284177)
Just testing a link (is it password free or not?)
When the World began to melt. A good article. 8 pages long!!!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:17 - ID#315256)
New S&P All time High.....

Stocks soar on year-end buying; S&P index sets new high

( Adds details, analysis )

NEW YORK, Dec 5 ( Reuters ) - Stocks soared on Friday as a wave of traditional year-end buying brushed aside
the inflationary impact of a report that the U.S. jobless rate fell to the lowest level in nearly 25 years.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index set a new high.

Based on early, unofficial results, the Dow Jones industrial average ended up 98.97 points, or 1.2 percent, at

In the broader market, advancing issues beat declines 17-11 on active volume of 560 million shares on the New
York Stock Exchange.

The S&P index rose 10.70 points to a record 983.80, surpassing the old high of 983.11 set Oct. 17.

The government said the unemployment rate fell to a 24-year low of 4.6 percent in November from 4.7 percent in
October as the economy cranked out jobs.

The number of nonfarm jobs jumped by 404,000, twice as many as Wall Street economists had expected and the
most since February 1996.

The report shook the inflation-sensitive bond market. The 30-year Treasury bond lost 11/32, or $3.44 on a
$1,000 bond, which raised its yield to 6.08 percent from Thursday's close of 6.05 percent. Early in the day, bonds
were down nearly a point and a half.

Analysts said traders appeared to be buying in anticipation that stocks will rally as they typically do in late
December and early January.

``Money managers are jumping the gun,'' said Ricky Harrington, an analyst at Interstate/Johnson Lane.

All equity funds took in $3.56 billion during the week ended Dec. 3, up sharply from $280 million in the prior
week, fund tracking service AMG Data Services said. It was the strongest inflow since the week before the
October market sell-off.

Given the turmoil in Asian economies, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates despite the jobs data
that pointed to a potentially inflationary tight labor market.

Eastman Kodak Co. fell 5/8 to 58-7/8 after a World Trade Organization panel came down on Japan's side against
the United States in a dispute involving Kodak and Fuji Photo Film Co.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:19 - ID#26793)
Shun funds that hold up well in bear markets (heh, heh)

Steve - Perth
(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:19 - ID#284177)
Yes, it is password free!
You would think they would give up on annoying passwords!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:20 - ID#227238)
Kudos. Allen. Sharefin
Allen: Your 17:26 ( +/- ) was a novel and interesting analogy. Adaptation in an unstable environment. A unique perspective. But I could not avoid wondering: Where do us goldbugs reside? As "one trick ponies" of the stopped clock school of investing, we may be doomed to extinction. Eh?

Sharefin: Your market savvy came through, again, in the last paragraph of your 18:31. ..... Committed to print for wider distribution. I appreciate your stuff 'nhieu qua' ( Vietnamese for: Very much ) .

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:21 - ID#372344)
@ LGB2
You have not answered my questions of last night, does paper money grow on trees...

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:22 - ID#315256)
Kiwi, re your 18:12
Hey Kiwi, don't knock chinese food, that Kung Pao chicken ain't bad! ( Unrighteous Yank..LGB )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:23 - ID#315256)
@ Tazdeak
But I DID answer your question, SEVERAL times re paper money, if I answer again I'll be accused of redundancy! ( WHich I of course would NEVER indulge in ..hehehe )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:24 - ID#255284)
Turkey shoot
TED how can you tell them apart?

LGB2 Want a laugh? Want a bit of cheering up?

Look what I found in an old copy of The Gold Newsletter,

".....a violent deflation is virtually certain within the next two years, furthermore it could last well into the 21st Century!

What will trigger the panic? My guess is that foreigners will finally balk at lending more money to the US. At that point, the market value of all credit market instruments will plunge. Investors will then rush to the safety of non-bankrupt money: gold and silver. Near its peak the *coming* precious metals bull market may carry gold to $5,00o an ounce or higher, and silver to $500 an ounce.

Because of the high potential for loss 2o% of your portfolio should be in gold and silver coins and the rest in US Treasury bills. Avoid precious metal shares, however, because history shows that their pirces collapse too, in a stock market crash. After, the stock market crash move 100 percent of your your investment funds into the precious metals"

Gold Newsletter 1994 July page 9

Steve Puetz

As long as we're shooting ducks ( sorry Ted sorry Hoppy ) anyone heard from Gartman?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:30 - ID#26793)
New Highs
The S&P index rose 10.70 points to a record 983.80, surpassing the old high of 983.11 set Oct. 17.

Some of you old timers will remember 1966. The Dow hit a high of around 1000 and then fell off similar to the August to now period. It then struggled back to a new high one or two points above the old one. After that it dropped and ( using the bb fisher chart ) has not recoverd yet, 32 years later.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:33 - ID#31868)
you happy go lucky kids. they are that which i know we shall not call pigs. truly is an insult to the pig. Who are these that own your money.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:33 - ID#372344)
Feel free to respond to my questions anytime, I look forward to your cogent responses.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:35 - ID#35767)
Ted Arnold of Merrill Lynch said Silver will be at 9 next year while he is bearish as always on gold. If he is bullish on silver and he is certainly an insider the squeeze in silver looks real. Look at the Kitco lease rates and the tightness grows with time which shows a big move next year. Gold and Copper provide silver as by product but gold closures coming and copper falling. Seems a mkt asdjustment is due.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:36 - ID#364147)
@ Aurator
I can't~~~~~DOOOOH....

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:39 - ID#364147)
@ Aurator
Wish you were here----the brownies smell sooooo good~~~~~~~~~munch-a-bunch......

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:39 - ID#255284)
sharefin@putting the pieces together, your piece on Thomson financials, I suppose I might as well say that I traced Gartman a while ago,

I was going to tease the story out for Studio R.

Any disgruntled clients, go on, un gruntle yourselves.


rat hunter, cos it takes one to catch one

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:40 - ID#284255)
Beware the bull but beware the bear
Could you please post the url/link for that dow down 36% article.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:44 - ID#255284)
Brownies are us ( and I don't mean the girl scouts)
TEd just send an e-cookie!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:45 - ID#35767)
Employment numbers best since Feb 96
In Feb 96 Pat Buchanan wins NH primary based on free trade vs NAFTA Job loss issue and opposition to the New World Order. Miraculously jobs soar. He must be wrong vote DOLE

Dec 97 US needs constant capital flows to keep flow to over supply US dollar. Talk beginnig about foreign situation causing US slowdown ( which would be bad for the dollar, deficit and thus bonds ) Miraculously Jobs soar. Everything is ok Buy US stks and bonds let the chimera continue. THEY NEEDED THIS JOBS NUMBER.

You have to admit these guys are good. As J. Goebbels said the bigger the lie the more they believe.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:46 - ID#372344)
@ Sharefin
Re 36% Dow Plunge : Morrow was on as guest market monitor on the Nightly Business Report PBS tonight.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:46 - ID#347447)
PRIVATE INVESTOR: One of the promoitional clients I do campaigns for is a multi-brand auto dealership in New York, a family business of 3 generations that has just sold out to a Japanese conglomerate. Perhaps this bolsters your case. Already the formula for success is being tarnished by the candy-store Virgo accounting analism of the new owners. Entrepreneurship is dead here. Stifled. Kaput. Sayonnara. Another case of Japan buying at the top? As in Real Estate in the late 80's.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:48 - ID#26793)
Fed intervened today to prevent bond losses

Mike Sheller
(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:48 - ID#347447)
Brownies...and Alice B.
TED: Just what's IN those brownies?????

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:51 - ID#344290)
@ John Disney re: CB gold holdings
Gold holdings of CBs posted Dec 02 at 09:18 - nomercy

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:56 - ID#364147)
@ Mike Sheller
Great chefs do NOT divulge the 'true' ingredients of their recipes ( grin thingy )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:57 - ID#35767)
Have you sighted Internet Economist George S. Cole pursuant to the Contract you undertook yesterday with Mission Control Central. Please acknowledge, Roger Out.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:57 - ID#364147)
Mike Sheller
And by the way---who the hell is Alice B???? Is she from Cape Breton??

(Fri Dec 05 1997 19:58 - ID#26793)
Korean stocks half day trading session now down 3.27%

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:00 - ID#364147)
Having a hard time seein 'straight' but yeah I think I see em---bobbing+weaving on the high seas~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Mike Sheller
(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:00 - ID#347447)
Don't overcook
TED: Never mind. Just ENJOY. Have a brownie for me.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:02 - ID#364147)
@ Mike Sheller
Geez Mike---I just ate four for YOU ( big grin thingy )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:05 - ID#225283)

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:07 - ID#174103)
DA, thanks for the info re: forward rates!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:08 - ID#364147)
@ D.A. + Kitco Casino
Whup that boy EB----I got me money on ya!! go gold + 'The Admiral'~~~~~~
EB:YOU are a heretic spouting blasphemy on our discussion group ( away with you )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:10 - ID#35767)
Is GSC on the sea of Internetia or the sea between you and beautiful Scatterie Island.

A little cold fer kayakin ole boy.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:13 - ID#24095)
Lowered Bond Ratings

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:13 - ID#24095)
Lowered Bond Ratings

cool lurk
(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:14 - ID#147100)
in case you missed the post: I'm headed to Vegas with three grand! Yahhoooo!

My dearly beloved and admired son, STUDIO.R, will be buried tommorrow at Arlington cemetery...full honors...Alan Greasecan said he'll be there.

See 08:33 post for the wrenching details. What'd you doin' after the funeral big guy?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:15 - ID#217268)
Historic 15-to-1 Equilibrium of Gold-to-Silver
Just for grins, if Silver continues to RISE from $5/oz and gold continues to FALL from $300/oz, where would they need to stop to realize the historic 15-to-1 gold-to-silver ratio ? Assuming silver continues to rise at the SAME PERCENTAGE RATE that gold continues to fall, then they should meet at Silver = $8/oz and gold = $120/oz. In EQUAL DOLLAR TERMS, gold would need to fall to $286/oz and silver rise to $19/oz.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:15 - ID#26793)
Rumors of failure of a major Australian mining company

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:15 - ID#24095)
Lowered Bond Rating
S & P Lowered Bond Ratings on several gold mining companies
Sorry for the double pump...too much wine

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:17 - ID#225283)

I am certain that you are refer n to Alice B. Tokeless

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:20 - ID#364147)
Sea of Scaterie Island methinks.....What a spectacular day on the ocean and not too cool @ all.....Do you want me to bring back the body?? Away to study my charts---and do some 'heavy' contemplation....ommmmmmmmmmmm

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:37 - ID#225283)
Mike Sheller

They were lucky to get out when they did.

soon Autonation and Carmax type superstores will forcing margins down even lower for the Mom & pop shops. Co-op money will dry up and floor plan fees will go thru the roof at the same time the nations economy heads south. Not to many people will be buying or even leasing SUV 's under those conditions. All of the major auto makers admit that they are way over capacity at this point & they are almost hoping for an excuse to shut down some plants.the big auto makers have tried to go in and buy back dealerships and open superstores but that has not worked either. 1998 does not look so great for the Auto biz.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:38 - ID#31868)
Leave me alone.
Children...wake up with being alive.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:42 - ID#225283)
Mike Sheller

They were lucky to get out when they did.

soon Autonation and Carmax type superstores will forcing margins down even lower for the Mom & pop shops. Co-op money will dry up and floor plan fees will go thru the roof at the same time the nations economy heads south. Not to many people will be buying or even leasing SUV 's under those conditions. All of the major auto makers admit that they are way over capacity at this point & they are almost hoping for an excuse to shut down some plants.the big auto makers have tried to go in and buy back dealerships and open superstores but that has not worked either. 1998 does not look so great for the Auto biz.

Yeah Grant of Grants interest rate newsletter. Say in like it is ....I think it is a first....something positvie about gold on WSW....LR was just giggling...
Grant sez " if you want to short the CB go long gold""

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:43 - ID#225283)

Professor LOu needs to go to the hard knocks gold grad scholl.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:55 - ID#225283)
Wall Street Week


Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:59 - ID#287367)
Everyone is so wildly bullish on silver, and silver is acting so well, but the commitment of traders shows the commercials are very bearish.
Gold is treated like sh!t and acts like it too, but the commercials are very much more long gold than short, which should be bullish for gold. Who can explain this conundrum?

Steve - Perth
(Fri Dec 05 1997 20:59 - ID#284177)
Steve's Web Page updated
Finally got around to updating the Web Page!
You can check it out at
See how ugly I really am! Have got rid of money photo.
Go to LINKS page & see "Steve's Hot News on Asian Financial Crisis". Will be updating it daily if possible. Many thanks to Colin Seymour.

Steve - Perth
(Fri Dec 05 1997 21:00 - ID#284177)
PS. If you have already bookmarked this site, remember to refresh or reload the page!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 21:17 - ID#427357)
Lagrimas de la Luna -- Tears of the Moon
The Peruvian Incas called Silver "Lagrimas de la Luna." Well, since August this year they have been tears of JOY, as Silver Futures are UP 23% since the DOW high in mid-August, all while the shiny yellow continued to dribble downwards. Just today Silver Futures closed UP 12.5 cents ( +2.4% ) . And while the XAU relentlessly ground downwards, silver stocks have indeed been shinny examples of appreciation.

Rothschilds, Soros & RJ CANNOT BE WRONG

We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the Poor Mans Gold -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year Goldbugs Weekly Comment.

In Cormiers report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! -posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Lets capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%
Silver Standard ( SSO ) ...............UP 57%
International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%
First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) ..........UP 86%
United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%
Clifton Mining ( CFB ) ................Down 4%

Thats an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! - the current daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:

(Fri Dec 05 1997 21:32 - ID#372344)
@ Back to 70"s DEJA- VU All Over Again
Disco music is back, being played and enjoyed in radios and dance clubs., and is even being incorporated into Rap music. John Travolta is the # 1 Movie $ maker. 70's shoes and some clothes styles are in vogue.
Free love is everywhere.The SKIRT index for the DOW is up. Why is Gold still down?

I can remember sitting in my office at a prominent broker, back in the 70's
when Gold was $105 after it had fallen back from $200.00, when the
Chase Manhattan came out with a panic like prediction that Gold would
drop to $60.00. Today we have a Fed Banker telling us Gold is going to
drop to $222. DEJA-VU all over again?

I can also vividly remenber a somewhat scared but Defient Gold Bug
coming into my office and asking me"DO YOU HAVE THE OZ FIGURES FOR FOR THIS WEEK'S IMF GOLD SALE"?
Yes do any of you remember the almost weekly public IMF SALES?
DEJA-VU all over again?

I can also distinctly remember being in my office on the phone, when
someone rushed in any yelled out" GOLD IS UP THE LIMIT" And we all
came in early the next couple of days or so to hear the same powerful

Believe me when I tell you that it will be DEJA-VU all over again.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 21:36 - ID#255284)
Talking of tears of the mooon, Mike Sheller have you ever seen apache tears?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 21:40 - ID#287207)
No Bills
Ted: Be of good cheer--I got my first mail in 3 weeks today. The Dec issue of Consumer Reports arrived --unaccompanied --and it tells me how and why to lease a car. I wonder if the new cheaper 1998 Japanese models will disturb the calculations.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 21:56 - ID#348286)
@TWA 800 - Why is the FBI now silencing the NTSB about Seat residue and "OTHER INFORMATION"
Pilot and author charged with stealing TWA 800 wreckage

December 5, 1997
Web posted at: 9:15 p.m. EST ( 0215 GMT )

NEW YORK ( CNN ) -- TWA's chief 747 pilot, a TWA flight attendant and the author of a book about the TWA 800 crash have been charged with stealing pieces of the wreckage from the hangar where investigators reconstructed the Boeing 747.

Federal law enforcement officials told CNN that arrest warrants have been issued for James Sanders, author of "The Downing of TWA Flight 800," his wife Liz Sanders, a TWA flight attendant, and TWA pilot Terrell Stacey.

According to officials, Stacey, who as TWA's chief 747 pilot served as the airline's number two representative in the crash investigation, allegedly took documents and seat fabric from the wreckage at Liz Sanders' request.

The items, they say, were allegedly intended to help James Sanders in writing his book, which promotes the theory that a missile brought down TWA 800 on July 17, 1996.

The New York-to-Paris flight exploded after takeoff from JFK Airport and crashed off the coast of Long Island, killing all 230 people aboard.

Stacey had access to the wreckage because he was involved with three crash investigation committees, according to a spokeswoman with the National Transportation Safety Board.

Officials say that Stacey has agreed to plead guilty next week, but Jeff Schlanger, James Sanders' attorney, said the author would fight the charge.

Federal prosecutors said they expected the three to surrender for arrest and arraignment next week.

Schlanger said his client is protected under the First Amendment and is being unfairly persecuted by the FBI.

"The FBI has spent millions creating a videotape and holding a lengthy press conference to make sure their theory got the public's attention," Schlanger said. "Why are they moving to arrest a person, a man who holds that up to a little scrutiny?"

The FBI has consistently rejected the theory circulated by Sanders and former journalist and White House press secretary Pierre Salinger that a U.S. Navy missile shot down the passenger jet and that the government is covering it up.

The National Transportation Safety Board ( NTSB ) has said an explosion in the center fuel tank, possibly caused by faulty wiring, destroyed the aircraft. The NTSB has set week-long public hearings on its findings starting December 8 in Baltimore.

According to the complaint, Stacey was approached by Elizabeth Sanders, who said her husband wanted to talk to him about the crash because he was conducting his own private investigation.

Stacey eventually provided James Sanders with information and copies of reports on the crash investigation and pieces of fabric from some of the plane's seats.

According to the complaint, those seats had a reddish residue, unlike residue on other seats on the plane. Although a lab report concluded that the residue was not rocket fuel, Sanders made his claims anyway.

The FBI says its tests show that the residue is an adhesive, but Sanders claims the FBI is involved in a cover-up. He says, "I think they really do know with some certainty what happened."

In an earlier interview with CNN, Sanders said he was being harried by the FBI for raising uncomfortable questions about the investigation.

"Actually," he said then, "what the feds want to do is get even. They are livid."

The FBI has been investigating how Sanders obtained the material since his theory was published in a California newspaper earlier this year.

FBI deputy director James Kallstrom sent a letter Wednesday to the National Transportation Safety Board asking that it not discuss the residue during its public hearings scheduled to begin Monday.

He also asked the NTSB not to discuss other information the FBI uncovered in its investigation, such as the identify of eyewitnesses to the crash and testimony from experts regarding the limitations of the eyewitness observations.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 22:06 - ID#238422)
I agree with you. One more addition to what you just said,
I took it from great book "Reminiscences of a Stock

.."....It never was my thinking that made the big money
for me. It was always my sitting...sitting tight..."

I found this approach to be very difficult to handle,
it can really hurt sometimes, it can be also wrong approach
sometimes, but if direction of your thinking is CORRECT, IT REALLY

Gold is the world money, world needs it as a great
stabilizer, and it will survive by the nature of its
role in the world.

It was moving down before, and it was moving
up before, and it was moving nowhere before. It can be a dangerous
game now, but this is a game....

(Fri Dec 05 1997 22:18 - ID#22956)
As Nick@C would say...a Trader's Paradise...oh my!
This is TA at it's best! Charts NEVER lie.....eventually ;- )

Go to Dec  Daily chart. Look at the downtrend at the pisture the small ( and all it never has to be big ) Pennant formed.....before the bottom fell out. Well, the traders who saw that took advantage and made some bucks ;- ) OH MY!!!!$$ scour the charts for large AND small signs.....


(Fri Dec 05 1997 22:21 - ID#33180)
TED: Alice B. Toklas, partner of Gertrude Stein ( "A rose is a rose is a rose" and "There is no There there" ) , was famous, among other things, for her brownies laced with marijuana, before the hippy generation rediscovered the weed. That was Mike's reference, no offense meant, I'm sure.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 22:21 - ID#222378)
Deutsch or Dutch
PrivateInvestor, if you are from there, what is the gold of choice in the Netherlands. I'd like to purchase some there with Dutch guilders.

Also do you know how much p.ounce the Dutch CBs got for their bricks?


(Fri Dec 05 1997 22:21 - ID#22956)
DUH.....I need some food or something......I think it is too many Brownies...
pisture=picutre....and here is the URL clear some cobwebs


(Fri Dec 05 1997 22:25 - ID#348286)
@Ratings lowered for Gold producers:
Friday December 5, 5:55 pm Eastern Time

S&P takes rating actions on gold mining companies

( Press release provided by Standard & Poor's ) .

NEW YORK, Dec 5 - Reflecting the recent deterioration in gold prices, coupled with the possibility of a sustained period of continued weak prices, Standard & Poor's has taken the following rating actions:

-- Echo Bay Mines Ltd. ( Toronto:ECO.TO - news ) Corporate credit rating lowered to double-'B'-minus from double-'B'; senior subordinated debt rating lowered to single-'B'-plus from double-'B'-minus.

Ratings placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.

-- Royal Oak Mines, Inc. ( Toronto:RYO.TO - news ) : Corporate credit rating lowered to single-'B' from single-'B'-plus; senior subordinated debt rating lowered to triple-'C'-plus from single-B-minus. Ratings placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.

-- Newmont Mining Co. ( NYSE:NEM - news ) : Triple-'B'-plus corporate credit rating placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.

Newmont Gold Co. ( NYSE:NGC - news ) : Triple-'B'-plus corporate credit, equipment trust certificates, and senior unsecured debt ratings placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.

Santa Fe Pacific Gold Corp.: Triple-'B'-plus senior unsecured debt rating placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.

-- Homestake Mining Co. ( NYSE:HM - news ) : Triple-'B' corporate credit and triple-'B'-minus subordinated debt ratings placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.

-- Battle Mountain Gold Co. ( NYSE:BMG - news ) : Double-'B' corporate credit and bank loan ratings, and single-'B'-plus preferred stock rating placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.

-- Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. ( Toronto:AGE.TO - news ) : Single-'B'-plus corporate credit rating and single-'B'-plus senior unsecured debt rating placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.

-- Placer Dome, Inc. ( Toronto:PDG.TO - news ) : Triple-'B' corporate credit and senior unsecured debt ratings, triple-'B'-minus preferred stock rating, and 'A-2' commercial paper rating affirmed. Outlook revised to negative from stable.

-- Amax Gold, Inc.: Double-'B' corporate credit rating and single-'B' preferred stock rating affirmed. Outlook revised to negative from stable.

Gold prices have deteriorated precipitously through 1997, falling to a 12 1/2-year low of below $300/oz last week. The price weakness has been driven primarily by central bank actions and a low inflationary environment, as well as the recent turmoil in Asian markets.

Although considerable uncertainty exists regarding the direction of gold prices, the recent weakness could be prolonged and hence, continue to adversely impact the credit quality of the above companies. Standard & Poor's expects to conclude its review of the company's placed on CreditWatch within the next two to three months.

Standard & Poor's ratings and outlooks on the following companies were not affected, for various reasons as stated below:

-- Barrick Gold Corp. ( Toronto:ABX.TO - news; single-'A' corporate credit rating, stable outlook ) , given its low cost structure, significant hedge position, and substantial financial flexibility, including a large cash position.

-- Normandy Mining Ltd. ( NDY.AX ) ( triple-'B'-minus corporate credit rating, stable outlook ) , given its significant hedge position.

-- Hecla Mining Co. ( NYSE:HL - news; single-'B'-plus corporate credit rating, stable outlook ) , as its product diversification affords some protection against gold price volatility, and its financial flexibility is expected to remain consistent with its current rating.

-- Coeur D'Alene Mines Co. ( NYSE:CDE - news; single-'B' corporate credit rating, negative outlook ) , given its product diversity. Although lower gold prices could well further hinder assumed improvement in its financial performance, its negative outlook already underscores the challenges it faces

(Fri Dec 05 1997 22:32 - ID#372344)
@ oris
RESORT, or not. But I must say this ck out the numerous currency graveyards worldwide,and you will find the only currency still alive is the

Here is a quote from the US Marine Handkook

(Fri Dec 05 1997 22:39 - ID#39845)
Check this out!
Company 98F Prod'n '000 oz 98F cash 98F total Res Hedging Hedging Hedging
'000 oz costs costs million oz cover oz cover years value per
$A/oz $A/oz share

Acacia 465 317 380 2.9 1727 4.1 0.58
Delta 203 249 323 1.5 402 1.8 0.19
Goldfields 571 309 441 4.5 2514 5 0.8
Great Central 680 278 366 4.9 2915 6.7 0.3
Mt Leyshon 221 306 392 0.9 698 3.2 0.96
Newcrest 451 413 486 9.2 5270 11.1 1.14
Normandy 1438 320 392 13.6 5947 4.4 0.55
Flinders 231 280 320 1.3 840 3.6 1.15
Plutonic 578 354 413 5.1 905 1.6 0.37
Sons of Gw 535 390 460 3.1 4561 8.9 2.86

and here is the commentary
anyone pick which ones in trouble?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 22:41 - ID#364147)
Hey Elf
I knew very well who Mike was referring to ( again grin thing ) for I am a product of the 60's.......

(Fri Dec 05 1997 22:49 - ID#364147)
@ Selby
My mail box was empty but can't wait till them bills start flowin back in.
My forwarded mail ( that isn't lost! ) from Vermont takes 1-4 weeks ( pre-strike ) ta get here so now what can I expect???....Did you read the article that said Atlantic Canadians are the fatest people in Canada?
EB: Get it together~~~~~

(Fri Dec 05 1997 22:49 - ID#39845)
lets try this
Company 98F Prod 98F cash 98F Res Hedging Hedging Hedging
'000oz costs total miloz cover cover value
$A/oz costs oz years per
$A/oz share
Acacia 465 317 380 2.9 1727 4.1 0.58
Delta 203 249 323 1.5 402 1.8 0.19
Goldfields 571 309 441 4.5 2514 5 0.8
Great Central 680 278 366 4.9 2915 6.7 0.3
Mt Leyshon 221 306 392 0.9 698 3.2 0.96
Newcrest 451 413 486 9.2 5270 11.1 1.14
Normandy 1438 320 392 13.6 5947 4.4 0.55
Flinders 231 280 320 1.3 840 3.6 1.15
Plutonic 578 354 413 5.1 905 1.6 0.37
Sons of Gw 535 390 460 3.1 4561 8.9 2.86

(Fri Dec 05 1997 22:57 - ID#287277)
Private Investor, Jim Grant rescued WS Week from terminal tedium, with
the most cogent, intelligent and persuasive definition of, and argument for the Noble Metal. Did you enjoy that as much as I?

( I must admit my bias, Grant is the prima financial writer IMO )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 22:57 - ID#287207)
Ted; I have taken to paying all my bills through the bank machine so they have lost a customer in me. Saw the article --seen the people--pay for their food.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:07 - ID#22956)
Toklas Ted
You just pay attention to that sorry Can$......ugh......

If I lose money on this one I'm coming up to the Cape and I'm gonna take it outta yer hide.........go gold....yeah right.....:-0 make plane reservations


Bill El Zebub
(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:08 - ID#261352)

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:10 - ID#22956)
The Admiral is on a sinking ship throw him an anchor


Bill El Zebub
(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:10 - ID#261352)
THATS in my pants!!!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:11 - ID#30116)
Gusto @ 13:56
Gusto -- Regarding Metastock versus Supercharts, I can't answer the question. I've only used SuperCharts and Trade Station, real-time and end-of-day versions... Sorry.., :- (

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:11 - ID#364147)
@ Selby
Selby,for such a short post you sure it the nail right on the head!!! My cousins in Ontario don't look the 'Bretoners' ( who are the fattest of the fat people in Atlantic Canada ) ---get a kick out of one of the favorite union sayings here=" we have the right to put food on the table"---by the looks of things they certainly are taking advantage of that 'right'...
Now 'they' want a study ( yes another one ) done on why 'they' are so unhealthy ( duh ) ....let's see grossly over-weight,no exercise and cigarette smoking galore and they want the gov'ment to tell em why....

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:13 - ID#30116)
elf @ 14:18
elf -- I'll dig up that chart post haste... :- )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:14 - ID#22956)
I'm glad the monkey is in your pants and not mine...ouch!! I have enough trouble with the gorrilla ;- ) roll out of my chair


sorry bart...go gold!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:14 - ID#364147)
The 'Admiral' he da man
EB: Have YOU been imbibing??? Go gold~~~~~~~~and Spurs....

Bill El Zebub
(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:16 - ID#261352)
EBs' demise
EB: Decreasing profit margins, 3/4 of the world in deflation, no hope
for paper, we will still call you one of our own when the spit hits the
fan.Short now or perish. Your Friend, BILL.

Bill El Zebub
(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:18 - ID#261352)
EBs' demise
Sorry I'm Not HEP. He's cool, and a bug at heart. I'm your boogie man.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:21 - ID#228128)
RJ comment on silver?
Vronsky: Your recent post said that today RJ affirmed bullish sentiment for silver. I searched and do not find any comment from him today. Am I missing something?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:23 - ID#22956)
is that Short now OR perish


short now AND perish

???????? sell gold and watch my team


go lakers...

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:23 - ID#30116)
elf -- I think 10 1/2 might be a good target. Thirteen is being irrationally exuberant. :- ) )

I haven't owned CDE for a while, but what a decline! Then again, NGC and GGO is down down a lot too. Perhaps there is some speculative food for thought there?

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:23 - ID#364147)
EB---I missed that attack due to the weather er somethin
Hey dude: I missed the attack on the Canadian Dollar----will be @ the airport with my AK 47~~~~~~~~~~~ forgot ta tell ya that it's hittin ( . ) 67 before the upward march begins ( so sorry )

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:24 - ID#22956)

Bill El Zebub
(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:25 - ID#261352)
@ EB
Time will out. You may measure in days but I measure in lifetimes.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:33 - ID#364147)
@ Panda
That CDE chart will give me a NIGHTMARE........

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:52 - ID#30116)
One thing about the decline in the dollar price of gold, it seems to be accelerating beyond 'reason'. Perhaps the rate of decline will be slowed down by a trend reversal? :- )

The employment report bodes ill for the equities and bond markets assuming that there is no major revision to the numbers in the opposite direction. It's really fun to watch the 'experts' tell us how this Asian 'crisis' will be 'good' for us. How it will not affect us in the U.S. of A. I liked Jim Grants analysis of gold tonight on Wall Street Week. "If you want to short central bonkers ( er, I mean bankers ) , buy gold"

I also enjoy reading about the Union Pacific Railroads problems with the Southern Railways merger. UP is straining the trucking system because they ( Union Pacific ) can't deliver via rail due to 'problems'. In today's Wall Street Journal, the UP story was beyond sad and dark comedy. In one instance, a Union Pacific rail crew had to stop their multi-engine freight train and walk to somewhere because of federal rules requiring the crew to cease operations after twelve hours of work. So, they obeyed the law and left the locomotives idling on the tracks as they tried to walk in the dark. They weren't even sure of where they were. The freight? Well the train remained at the location for twenty four hours before the Union Pacific folks moved it. If I remember the story right, there were nine locomotives left idling for twenty four hours. These are not trivial engines. Most locos in this class are 3500 horse power+++. Fuel consumption anyone? As Homer would say, "DOOOOOH!" This is not the stuff of deflations, it is the stuff of inflations...

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:56 - ID#364147)
@ The End
Goodnight Panda and all Kitcoites ( you too EB ) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Panda: Ain't James Grant great!!!

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:56 - ID#30116)
Ted -- Look at GGO or NGC. All of these gold stocks have taken a good hit. Echo bay is a total disaster. A few years ago they were at 16 and now? Two and change.

It's been a long week. Time to say good night, so.... Good night all.

(Fri Dec 05 1997 23:58 - ID#364147)
@ Panda
Look @ my ABX ( DOOOOOH ) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~g'night