Nobody else will say it so I will. The farther it declines the faster and farther it will rise.

Don't be so sure.......

away...to wish it were true



I'm not sure it will ever come back but it is a nice thought.

Agree with you again....

I've seen a terrible death of paper money in Russia
in early 1990's. This was something!!! The more they
printed, the worse it was. Nearly all stockpile of
the Soviet Union's gold was already wasted and rouble
was "backed up" only by the GOVERNMENT PROMISES.
It did not work at all, so people switched to US$,DMs,
gold ( if they could get it, of course, it was in short
supply ) - or in the other words they switched to MONEY
which Russian goverment could not duplicate....

This was, and still,this is a NATURAL choice of the people in trouble...

By the way, do you hold any RYO stock? If yes, would you
please provide me with your opinion on this stock...










was a huge problem with even primitive

oh my

Testing, testing, don't be alarmed this is only a test.

Bailout money from the various aiding governments; means that the taxpayer foots the bill - thus unhappy 1st world citizens.
Asians bigwigs will not be real happy as we THE HAPPY BANKER's will buy them out for pennies on the dollar; while their underpaid labor will not like the still lower wages and conditions that we burden them with.
Hell; if they revolt we'll finance their ARMS purchases.
Now you know why they call us THE HAPPY BANKER's.

For elf -

And have you read her cook Book ??

Dat those HAPPY BANKERsters ain't gonna be happy too much longer.

The S. Koreans may be looking for those arms. I read today they described the IMF as acting like conquerers.

What's this you say about bailout money from the taxpayers? Klinton was talking today about tax-cuts after explaining that this is the greatest economy in the history of the universe, and the lemmings working 2 or 3 three jobs seem to agree.

Looks like Webb Hubbell is in big trouble again and hopefully so are the people who arranged the hush money:

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a43533.htm

I see Mar comex silver gained .12
May gained .11
Jul and the rest gained .10.

Haven't seen that for awhile ( ever? ) . Are we going into backwardation?

Since we are now trading off warehouse stocks, prices should rise monday. Stocks fell again.

Am looking for the next top ( Mar ) in the 5.90-6.10 range.
After that 7.20 would be my target, though once things get rolling... It looks like this may not be a 1979 or 87 market, but a 1982 market where there is a slow ascent marked by a lot of backing and filling. No? We may be dealing with more sophisticated hedgers who will sell any appreciable rise until the top blows.

Bart-- you've got to overhaul your computers, mate. Your quote screens say gold UP $2.30. Now don't come the raw prawn with me, mate. Everyone KNOWS gold prices don't go UP. Hope you can get your quote screen fixed asap.

I see that LGB claims to have posted Ian Goddard's actual admission
of guilt. Er. LGB? Would you PLEASE, PLEASE explain to me why
the following quote of Mr. Goddard's hasn't run on "90 Official
New Sources"?

BTW - after several years of debating on the Internet about the
actual Federal Deficit, I have come to realize that there is a
substantial portion of the population that are simply incapable
of thinking. Particularly when it comes to being sceptical of
stuff on the boob tube. : )

The actual divergence between the claimed and real Deficit
can be traced down to a particular year - 1987.

I eagerly await a new installment of LGB's personal conspiracy
theory on the Japanese recession. : )


http://home.dc.lsoft.com/scripts/wa.exe?A2=ind9704&L=flight-800&O=D&P=2147

I was informed by the CNN reporter that
I spoke with that it was that military
death-threat artist who informed CNN
of my Internet message CNN quoted, and
that it was that thug who scripted the
twisted story that my message was an
admission of fraud, which CNN ran. I
disputed and disproved the charge of
admitted fraud, which the reporter
raised in reference to the thug's
script, but CNN ran the Intel-Op
script regardless of the truth.

EB
Do I sence you salivating in suspence of gold's next bounce down the hill.
Sell the rallies again?


Nick@C
Have you had a look at this site.
http://www.netquote.interpro.net.au/start.html
AAP summary for live data - except OZ SPI.
Has a live OZ gold price as well.
Options list for semi current options strike, code and expiry.

G'day who cares. How's it goin mate? Hows the new job?? I think we are ready for some gold-bug good news for a while. Things never keep going in the same direction forever. Your XAU showed a very slight pulse yesterday. It may survive yet. Aussie golds have been recovering for a couple of weeks. Don't know how long it will last, but yields on some of the miners now match the best industrials. There may still be some pain ahead, but gold shares are now CHEAP. May get cheaper--who cares--eventually we'll all be smilin'. In the meantime, if yer eatin' three squares a day and have an el nino proof roof, yer way ahead. Cheers from down under.

It was getting pretty boring around here. Now it's too late and I must bed down.

Nick ( Aussie-Sharefin ) - Salivating doesn't quite capture it all. I am hoping for a nice rally ( less than 10bucks, eh D.A.? ) so I can try on this new skirt I just bought with my new-found gold bucks ;- ) . This market will take ANOTHER dump. Just w/w. I was looking over some data. I liked these days the best. Remember??!? I do...vaguely.

GLDCA 800109 607 619 604 605

GLDCA 800110 608 610 597 603

GLDCA 800111 620 628 620 628

GLDCA 800114 653 653 653 653

GLDCA 800115 704.8 704.8 696 704.8

GLDCA 800116 754.8 754.8 754.8 754.8

GLDCA 800117 743 804.8 730 804.8

GLDCA 800118 835 854.8 834 845

GLDCA 800121 895 895 845 861

GLDCA 800122 811 811 811 811

GLDCA 800123 761 761 761 761

GLDCA 800124 730 752 711 711

GLDCA 800125 720 721 661 661

GLDCA 800128 656 665 625 659.2

GLDCA 800129 699 709.2 686 709.2

GLDCA 800130 702 726 680 681

and the party ended....ugh....and when shall the party begin again?? hmmmmmmmm...

nite

away



For oris

I am Much relieved that you have finally realized

that you will get no interest from me for the

treasured advice that you so kindly offered.

I will try to make it up to you in other ways,

however because the advice has ALREADY been usefull

in dealing with the tricky Russians. In a dream last

night ( black and white unfortunately ) I was in a

Russian restaurant. I ordered borsht ( phonetically

as I am unable to spell the word ) , then I asked the

waiter "Do you have two sets of books??". He said he

would check. He returned and said They had one set

for Borsht and another set for Blintzes - He realized

that I was nobody's fool and I awoke a happier man.

I will always be in your debt for this advice.

To try to repay you in some feeble way I will answer

your question on the mining situation in South Africa.

However, there is another man in this group with

a name that is not of this planet. I am watching him

closely. He has been studying our customs, visiting

discos, and the like. He has been acquiring

information, some from the sayings of Yogi Berra ( a mystic

and sometimes catcher for the Yankees ) .

He sometimes refers to the Marine Handbook, a copy of

which has apparently fallen into his grip. I fear

that he may have come from deep interstellar space.

Listen to his words - study them carefully - then do

the exact opposite of whatever he says.

for Whoever you may be

There is a lovely Aussie expression called a technicolor yawn.

Your posts reminded me of it.

Gidday finny. Thanks for the AAP site, mate. Did you notice how Aussie Goldilocks beat off the big bad bear with a great big stick on Friday?? Big down day in the precious and the "good" gold shares said "ho hum, what else is new??". Gold down muchos dineros and most quality shares held ground or moved up a cent. We didn't have the benefit of the price rise that woke sleeping beauty ( XAU ) up. When a bear gets amorous and you can resist his heavy-handed intentions, you are on the road to liberty. Did I just write that?? Carlton-United Brewery has got a lot to answer for!!

Nick@C
I agree they look like gems and their recent action looks good.
But still standing on shaky ground, I think.

Guess that EB is holding that au chart data upside down and looking for targets to achieve.
Looks like he has gold racing up to minus -$895.
Such vision - where does it come from.

Gusto
Metastock or Supercharts?
I would go for supercharts. I currently run both and prefer SC for its ease of use.
They both are excellent programs with many whistles and bells.
MS has just a few more quirky features that bug me.
Now if they could combine the best of both of them.
MS downloader is very good for data manipulation.

Found this site. A format similarly structured to Kitco, but devoted to White House scandals instead of Gold. Go to the forum section. Folks, this stuff is chilling, and could really have some explosive effects. This makes Watergate look like a tea party. http://www.freerepublic.com/

Laaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaadddies and Geeeeeeeeeeeeentlemen. The Heavyweight champeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeship of the woooooooooooooorld is abooooooooooooooooooout to begiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiin. In the reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed corner we haaaaaaaaaaaave  ( GOLD 280 ) . Iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnn the bluuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuee corner we haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaave DA ( GOLD 300 ) . The refereeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee is Kitcoooooooooooooooooooooooooites--place your bets!!! DING!!!!!

H M!!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971205/korea_halla_creditor_1.html

Not sure if this has already been posted, but I found it informative.

He distinguishes two different types of "economic crisis". I found his frankness to be informative. You don't even have to know "double speak" to understand it ( e.g. FRB ) .

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971206/verbatim/verbatim1.html

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971205/international/stories/imf_1.html

What part of the planet do you reside on?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971205/foreign_banks_unlike_1.html

Good Morning. I am in SE Connecticut

No kidding. I am right across the Sound in Huntington, LI.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971205/s_p_affirms_japan_aa_1.html

MARKET UPDATE ( 12/5/97 ) PM-----Gold bounced off twelve year support levels at 286 to close up $2 on the day. Technical traders were heartened by gold coming off its triple lows going back to the early 1980s. Much of the buying had to do with short covering. Rumors are circulating about the failure of at least on major Australian mining company. The question remains whether what the Aussies gained in its gold sale earlier in the year will cover what it is losing in subsequent mine company closures and outright failures. Gold is one of that country's top export items. Some of the top experts in gold around the country who keep in touch with USAGOLD are calling this the bottom of the gold market. We continue to hear rumors about Japanese official gold buying in the face of this selloff though we have seen no hard evidence. At the same time, all the physical gold that has left central banks on loan and sales has to be going somewhere. The question keeps coming up: Who's the big buyer? Such speculations seem to always center around Japan -- a country that has repeatedly stated its concern over lack of gold reserves in the past. Anybody who can give us a total dollar number on the Asian bailouts is asked to please leave it on our E-mail -- so we can make it available to all. We think its at least $250 billion though there have been bigger numbers bandied about. Please give us a breakdown and any justifications you might have. The unemployment numbers came in much lower renewing concern about inflation and astonishing market watchers. We still say inflation is the monster under your bed. It's the weekend, fellow goldmeisters. Time for a little R&R. We had another big week here. Gold is hot. Take care.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971205/mof_makes_special_l_1.html

Ladies and gentlemen, it is with a great deal of pleasure that we announce the birth of our son. In honour of his Uncle Midas, we have decided to name him XAU. He is underweight and slightly anaemic, has a bit of cholic and a raging fever, but doctors are expecting a gradual recovery. As you are aware, his mother had an extremely difficult pregnancy and the birth itself was profoundly traumatic. His father is over the moon and will soon be handing out cigars.

It is also with a great deal of sadness that we announce the death of Uncle Puts. That he should pass away in December is extremely ironic as he was in such superb health just a few weeks ago. It is reported that he took a turn for the worse after reading his daily copy of the Wall Street Journal. His dying words were "Dow 5000, Dow 5000, why have you forsaken me??" We are still trying to decipher. A few of his relatives are holding a vigil at his tomb in the hope that he will rise from the dead. Some yellow metal was found in his safety deposit box. If not claimed it will be donated to the Salvation Army.

http://www.geocities/WallStreet/4915/index.html

Hilarious.

If you have not had the chance I suggest the two of you read The Great Reckoning by Davidson and Rees-Mogg. It is a blueprint for what is happening.

http://news.bbc.co.uk:80/hi/english/business/newsid_36000/36904.stm

I have read that book, it is a great reference as well. Also an earlier book by the same authors, Blood in the Streets I think is the title.

Oh Joy oh Jo

gold up ,,,"Gold bounced off twelve year support levels at 286 to close up $2 on the day"

back from chrissy parties where actually met someone ex NZ Securities Commission ( sim S.E.C. ) who agreed with me that NZ does not deserve its own bourse. - greedy/pigheaded brokers.

\

A minority of two..


good night

Nick@Cyour are having quite a night, loved the fight sequence..I'd love to stay for the stripper but..


who won the cricket, Crusty? that Donald is amazing, 7 overs, 2 wickets 5 runs when I last saw. Can anyone name better stats?

auraidontlovecricketiloveit

howzat?

This Month

"The Death of Patriotism"
by James Dale Davidson

"You have written a great book. It is the first book that I have read that has a realistic view of technology's impact. I like it so much that I am making it required reading for my undergraduate course, 'The U.S. in Global Competition.' It is an interdisciplinary course in the general education curriculum. I will let you know how it flies, but one thing is for sure: So-called "Generation X" is ready for some practical information about how to survive, no, prosper in the next millennium....As theorists, the two of you rank with Adam Smith and Karl Marx. Don't be discouraged. The tide is going to turn." -Dr. Nancy Oppenlander, Department of Political Science, Rhode Island College, on The Sovereign Individual.

Webitis

( Vancouver ) I probably get more out of the Strategic Investment Web Site than anyone. The Member Forum at www.strategicinvestment.com and The Sovereign Individual e-mail site SOVID@SAO.COM. bring gratifying reminders that Lord Rees-Mogg and I did not totally waste our time writing The Sovereign Individual. Of course, we never expected the powers-that-be to welcome so subversive a book. We were not disappointed in that. But we rather hoped, at least I did, that the ideas in The Sovereign Individual would touch off a lively debate. Presumably, the nation state system still has some articulate defenders who can muster an answer to what Professor Oppenlander calls "a realistic view of technology's impact."

But there is no evidence of such a debate in the conventional media. Their way of treating challenging ideas is to ignore them. But even though the guardians of opinion are unable to confront the coming death of politics, there is a lot of lively thinking on the subject. It is being discussed over the Internet and on the Worldwide Web.

At www.strategicinvestment.com we have had a running interchange since July 22 in The Sovereign Individual message board on the topic "The Death of Patriotism." This is the kind of discussion I would expect to see among people who have read The Sovereign Individual and taken its message to heart. In a way, it also reminds me a bit of the kinds of conversations I encountered in college discussions of Atlas Shrugged.

Being true to the "patriae"

The point is not that all loyalty to the "patriae" or the land of our fathers is useless. But rather, that we should be free to define our own "patriae." It need not be conceived in relation to any geographic feature. As long ago as the 17th century, well before the advent of the cybereconomy, John Milton wrote "Where liberty is, there is my country." But even when the "patriae" is defined in the traditional geographic way, its limits are highly debatable. And the claim of patriotism does not justify submitting to tax slavery.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971204/japan_insurance_chie_1.html

Good morning! Just saw your post. Right now I am in Commack, LI, just down the street. May be we could get together for coffee and golden-glazed donuts sometime!

Good mornin Donald + all Kitcoites.....Weather= overcast,39 degrees and a strong East wind blowing in off the ocean.....

salty

New Zealand won - South Africa had one of their frequent batting

collapses. But Donald is quick

John Disney: Yes. As we golden old codgers banter, remember Gertrude's "One does not get better but different and older and that is always a pleasure."

Analyst Mike Sheller asserts long-term speculators in bullion and mining stocks may be looking at the kind of opportunity right now that presents itself every several years in the heartbeat of the gold cycle. The last time he made a similar call, he was RIGHT ON THE MONEY in predicting the lows of Oil and Gas stocks in early 1994. Subsequently, hundreds of percent gains were made.

At this particular astrological moment, he says, We kind of feel the same way right now about gold and silver. He names his favorite stocks... which may rise to the stars ( pun intended ) :
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro120297.html

Morning Ted; its cold, crisp and nausiatingly winterlike here in groud zero for El Nino. Here's a little joke that I just received and will pass on. It has a monetary base and should pass scrunity with the group. What about that $2+ rally in gold on Friday. I could have swooned with pleasure. I am so easily pleased these days.


A man in a bar sees a friend at a table, drinking by himself. Approaching
the friend he comments, "You look terrible. What's the problem?"

"My mother died in June," he said, "and left me $10,000."

"Gee, that's tough," he replied.

"Then in July," the friend continued, "My father died, leaving me
$50,000."

"Wow. Two parents gone in two months. No wonder you're depressed."

"And last month my aunt died, and left me $15,000."

"Three close family members lost in three months? How sad."

"Then this month," continued, the friend, "nothing!"

Who says you can't borrow your way to prosperity? What we don't know is how much of the borrowed money covered stock market investments.

December 5, 1997
Consumer Credit Expanded At a 10.5% Rate in October
Dow Jones Newswires

WASHINGTON -- Consumer credit in the U.S. expanded a seasonally adjusted $10.7 billion in October, or at a 10.5% annual rate, the Federal Reserve reported Friday.

That rate was the highest since July 1996, when it was 12.7%.
The latest increase followed a revised rise of $700 million, or
0.6% at an annual rate, in September.

The Fed previously said September's rise was $2.0 billion, or 1.9% at an annual rate. All three categories of consumer credit -- automobile, revolving and "other" -- rose. Auto credit outstanding expanded an adjusted $4.2 billion in October after rising $1.8 billion in the September.

Revolving credit, which includes credit-card, retail and
bank-card borrowing, rose an adjusted $3.5 billion in the latest month, after rising $2.6 billion the month before.

Miscellaneous credit, including mobile-home loans, cash loans and certain retail financial contracts, expanded an adjusted $3.0 billion after falling $3.8 billion the month before.

Credit accounted for under the miscellaneous category includes loans for education, boats,vacations, recreational vehicles, motorcycles, tax
payments, home improvements and items not backed by anything more than a person's signature.

At the end of the latest month, consumer installment debt totaled $1.233 trillion, up 4.7% from $1.177 trillion a year earlier.

Nick, sorry to hear about the death of your uncle. Luckily you had a new birth to take away the heartbreak of the entire incident. Its a shame you didn't take fertility drugs so that you could have spawned triplets and you could have named them perhaps Goldilocks, Silvester and Platty.

Tort: Here's a joke ( ?? ) for you + others:





To next story
To briefs

Talk back!

Saturday, December 6, 1997

Mail moves; union mulls action after
altercation

By RICHARD DOOLEY -- Special to The Daily News

Mail is moving in metro but there is little happiness among
postal workers.

Canadian Union of Postal Workers Nova local president Randy
Mapp said the union is considering setting up a picket line in
front of a manager's home in light of an altercation with a postal
worker.

Mapp said the manager tried to shake hands with a union
member but was refused.

When the manager tried to touch the worker on the shoulder,
the worker moved away and asked the manager not to touch
him.

Considering charges

"He continued to put his hands on the member," said Mapp
adding that the union is considering laying charges against the
manager.

Mapp said the union is considering setting up an information
picket at the manager's home as retaliation for the incident.

Canada Post spokeswoman Marilyn Farley said there was full
letter-carrier service in metro yesterday, the first time mail has
moved since 45,000 postal workers walked off the job Nov. 19
in a strike over wages, job security and changes to letter-carrier
routes.

The postal workers were legislated back to work on
Wednesday night.

"We are completely back to business," she said, adding there
were no incidents reported as postal workers resumed their
shifts Thursday.

Mapp said postal workers are facing huge volumes of mail.

"There are tractor-trailer loads of mail stored all over the
country," he said.

Local | National | World | Sports | Matinee | Life | Business | Computers |
Opinion | Mou's Cartoon | Letters | Hotline |
Events | Horoscope | Comics | Caption Contest | Hit Halifax! | Staff |

Although gold is monitored as one barometer of inflation expectations by the Fed, one official said the recent plunge in

gold to below $300 per ounce may have less to do with inflation than with the threat of large amounts of official gold stocks

coming onto the market. "Eventually those stocks will be worked off."

http://www.economeister.com/news/1997_12/05/160600ec.htm

Time ta hit the 'real' casino in Sydney~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ta ta....

Donald@5:43
This has got to be the IMF playing the 'Confidence' game, because
in September of 96, they were admitting, "For the second year in a row, the liquidity position of the IMF weakened, owing to a record
demand for its resources--predominantly by Russia and Mexico."
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs\ft\survey\sup0996\11liquid.htm
It is VERY helpful when you bring forward these stories.
Thanks ( your posts this past week have been particularly helpful ) .

Tolerant1@6:03
Of all the "gold sale" stories, this one is the most suspect in my
mind. If gold is your countries major export ( or one of the major
exports ) the bold announcement that you ( CB ) no longer consider
it worth holding amounts to gross stupidity or madness, or both.
Please give me your thoughts on this one CB sale, with regards--
in particular--to announcing the sale.

I can see no reason for it other than to drive down the price of
gold ( that, I feel sure, they could well forsee ) . So, one must
ask, "Why?"; what is the game plan...

What is your take on the Fed official who issued the comment "...recent plunge in

gold to below $300 per ounce may have less to do with inflation than with the threat of large amounts of official gold stocks

coming onto the market. "Eventually those stocks will be worked off."

Is he confirming CB's selling "..eventually those stocks will be worked off"

Or could he be referring to "...threat of large amounts of official gold stocks coming onto the market" would eventually wear off, meaning 'threat"

?????

As alluded in previous postings it appears "that your Greenspan of the North" has began his descent ( lost creditability )

TSE will correct.

"They're blowing it, basically," commented global bond manager David Jallits of Strategic Fixed Income in Arlington,

Va. "The central bank has proved itself to be well behind the curve. Their credibility has been squandered and they can

only get it back by raising rates aggressively and in a consistent fashion, and I don't think anybody believes they're going to

do that," he said.

http://www.economeister.com/news/1997_12/05/164600pf.htm

Ball flies
A long sweet curve
Toward the stand
A certain four
An arc of pure delight.

Fields man - however
Has that sweet arc in eye
Judges and assesses it
Measures the pace
The inclination
Direction and altitude
Estimates with brilliant intuition
The fall of ball
And, input perfected
Places with fleet foot
His hands to intercept;
Oh perfect judgment
Superb skill; that fleet foot;
That mind computing the moment!

Dear Lord,
Man and the Universe meet!
Kairos!
The exquisite moment
Caught!

Ball, dreaming
In the mild ecstasy of flight
Is invested,
Rests docile, in the captors hands,
Caught.

Fieldsman, assured
Of all certain skills
Tosses the ball
Full forty feet
Into the blue empyrean
Saying thus to all
Behold me Master of this ball.
And ball obedient returns.
Sweet skills.

Oh to be alive. To be here
Such sweet perfection!
Hallelujah.

nomercy: Wisdom from the masses and the younger ones are wiser yet:

Friday, December 5, 1997

Canadians want government to pay debt first-poll

TORONTO, Dec 5 ( Reuters ) - Canadians want to use any federal budget surplus

to pay down government debt before applying it to tax cuts or new spending

programs, according to a series of surveys to be released next week.

"Canadians are, in a surprisingly firm and politically significant way, resolute in

their desire to see a concerted attack on the accumulated debt of the federal

government as the country's No. 1 fiscal priority," concluded the surveys,

conducted by the COMPAS polling firm for Southam News Service.

The Liberal government, which has said it will eliminate the deficit by the end of

the fiscal year ending March 31, 1999, has pledged to spend half of any surplus on

new programs and the rest on debt and tax reduction.

The government's accumulated debt is C$583.2 billion or 73.1 percent of gross

domestic product, among the highest in the world's industrialized nations.

The polls consisted of five mini-surveys conducted from November 9-12 and a

national survey of 1,748 respondents from November 15-25, which confirmed "that

the national mood had become extremely frugal."

The polling numbers were not disclosed.

The surveys also found Canadians angry at high taxes and with strong ideas about

a fairer tax system, indicating the right-wing Reform Party, Canada's biggest

opposition party, "had been successful in getting its fiscal message out to the

public."

The surveys added that "younger Canadians tend to be more conservative and

supportive of the Reform and Conservative parties than the Baby Boom generation

that precedes them."

I have been running into more people selling "retail" gold eagles

recently. The price for a 1 Oz eagle is on/around $450 and a 1/4

ounce eagle o/a $175.

nomercy: Perhaps your friend in Virginia should give his head shake. If the US rates are already 1.25% higher any further rise means Canada has to raise rates whether goofs like him can see it coming or not. Wiith a projected bottom to unemployment at 7% its Boom Boom Boom times for the next 4 years atleast.

By DAVID THOMAS

Economics Reporter The Financial Post

Reports showing robust economic expansion continues in both Canada and the U.S. gave stock markets a lift Friday, but spooked bond markets with the prospectof rising interest rates.

The Canadian unemployment rate edged down to 9% in November from 9.1% in

October, in line with most forecasts. But the U.S. rate surprised the market by matching a 24-year low of 4.6%, down from 4.7%. Most analysts had predicted the jobless rate would rise slightly.

The news sparked speculation interest rates may rise in the U.S., a development one economist said could force the Bank of Canada to increase the size of its next hike.

With Asian market turmoil still far from resolved, few economists had expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates at its next meeting Dec. 12.

But with the U.S. economy in high gear, the debate is opening up.

"If Asian markets calm, the odds of a Fed tightening in the near term have just taken a giant step forward," said Nesbitt Burns Inc. chief economist Sherry Cooper.

"Where a Fed tightening on Dec. 16 was not considered a possibility ... it now has some validity," said Andrew Pyle, a treasury strategist with ABN Amro Bank Canada.

The central bank has raised rates three times this year for a total of 75 basis points, or three-quarters of a percentage point. The latest move came Nov. 25, lifting the benchmark bank rate to 4%.

Most economists are betting on another 25 basis point hike by the end of the month, but Pyle said a U.S. rate hike would force the bank to re-evaluate its next move.

"Whether the Bank of Canada likes it or not, a Fed move ... will not only force a 25 basis point [one quarter of a percentage point] rate increase but will most likely require the bank to raise rates 50 basis points in order to prevent major damage to the C$."

You posted more info about the inflatonary trend of such high employment. IMHO we are in a pretty bad DOMESTIC inflation already.IMHO the only thing that doesn't make this crystal clear is the fact that most of our daily consumer goods are made by foreign slave labour.But try to buy tools, land, houses, medical care, a gun safe, or a bulldozer!!!

You know the last time we had such high employment was 1973 and the inflation of '73-75 wiped out a lot of people ( myself included ) .

By Peter C. Du Bois

The spot price of gold fell to a 12-year low ( $286.50 an ounce ) in New York Thursday before rallying fractionally Friday. Bobby Godsell, head of Anglogold, a new unit of Anglo American Corp. into which the South
African mining conglomerate will consolidate its gold holdings, declines to predict the future price of the precious metal. However, he allows that it could fall to $275-$280 "and spend some time there." In this event, he hopes to prosper by selectively mining only high-grade ore.

With central banks continuing to sell gold and speculators nervously eyeing point-and-figure charts, we asked John Roque of Lehman Brothers for a technical reading. In his view, a weekly close below $287.16 ( last seen in March 1985 ) could presage a tumble to about $240 ( April 1979 ) . Below that, he sees support at $194 ( December 1974 ) or $183 ( February
1975 ) . If that doesn't halt a free fall, there's always $104.96 ( August 1976 ) .

Wisdom speak = translated in reality = wishful thinking

Passing down of deficit from Feds to provinces to municipalities to taxpayer through 'pay per use' programs & higher property taxes & lower health and educational services, higher tuition costs etc.

Social security system is going broke ( re CPP additional funding required )

Bouchard & Quebec will be the ultimate catalyst.

In the US we trust.

According to Mr Ron Bevacqua, of Merrill Lynch in Tokyo, about $US600 billion in US bonds is held by Japan,

more than any other country.

But if Japan's banks were to start selling US bonds, Dr Kenneth Courtis, a leading Tokyo-based market analyst

with the Deutsche Bank group, believes the world bond market could be destabilised as US interest rates are

expected to rise.

This would lead to US businesses cutting back wages and laying off workers. The implications for the global

economy are great, because US economic growth is powering the economies of Asia, including Japan.

The market is speaking and has been for the last few months. Notwithstanding the 3 nudges by Thiessen the Canuck $ has lost over 2 cents in the last several months.

Bank of Canada has spend over $2 bn of its foreign reserves in Nov.

I'm afraid the market so far, is not sharing your sentiment.

Does this mean less demand for gold loans from CBs. How does the current gold market climate compare with bottoms in other sectors. Is the blood runnung in the streets sufficient.

Ouch! That hurts! Damnit!, Alan don't hit my knuckles again with that damn ruler....I'll can your butt...Hell, I'm the President of the United States of America and we Arkansasyuns don't take kindly to that crap.

Well, Billy, unless you start listening to me better...I'm going to keep punishing you....'sides, that, I think you kinda' like it!

No I don't! That's Hillary that likes that whip stuff...not me..I like it smooth and easy...like Senator Kennedy.

Now, where were we? On yea! Billy, we're not going to get all the gold in the world unless we follow these simple guidelines. Now, see here...see how straight this line is...hand me that ruler...

Wow! Alan that's pretty straight...except, that last little bit there at the end.....

Yea...yea...yea. That's where ol' Goofoffson, he blew it. Hell, they got a little anxious down at the IMF...hell they ran gold down six bucks and them goldbugs started buying again. See right here... them little critters ran it up almost three dollars.

Alan, we got bugs here in the White House too! They got in here during the Nixon years...did you here about that?

Jesus Christ Bill! You're a friggin' idiot! Sometimes you really scare me.

Don't talk to me that way, Alan...that hurts my feelins'

Okay, okay...I'm sorry Billy. Oh yea, what I was sayin' is that them goldbugs are wearin' down little by little...you see, it's like the drippin' water torture we used on Vince...a little cold water slowly drippen'....drippen...drippen...and then BOOM! It's over. We got the gold.

Damnit! Alan your're the smartest son-of-a-witch that I have ever known. Hell yer a bunch smarter than those friggin' boys I had workin' on my Whitewater project...You know that deal could still work...I may still get me a little hideaway down on the White River fer nuthin!
Visualize Alan....some corn whiskey...a pipe full of that Arkie weed...Marla Maples...God Dang! Yahoooo!

Settle Down Bill! You've been under a lot of pressure here lately...you just need to cool it! Okay?

Yeesss, Sir, but you can't keep from dreamin', Alan. You know Alan, you're real good for me...I tend to get a little carried away and...

Bill, you'll never never know how I appreciate you and....well, sir...could I ask you a little favor...

You just name it Alan...consider it done!

Well, sir...I told my lovely wife, Andrea, you know the one on T.V., that we may get those beautiful old gold coins from those Argentine bankers...and she lit up like a Christmas tree...I mean, a menorah lamp...and maybe I could have just one...she'd wear it on T.V. just when we're trying to move that gold price back up and...

Alan...consider it done! You and the pretty miss can pick out the shineyest one. I don't get that manure lightin' up stuff...maybe I ought to try that! How's that stuff? I bet it'll blow your head plum off!

Bill...menorah lamp...menorah...

Whatever you say, Alan. I trust your judgement, pal. Hey, I am gettin' a little hungry. You hungry, Alan?

Yes sir, but I've gotta' go to a funeral at Arlington this afternoon and I'll probably eat at the reception afterwards.

Well...if there are any leftovers...bring 'em back over...the food here stinks...especially the desserts... you know, Mom used to make this banana pudding with vanilla wafers in it...WHEW BOY!!!

Billy, I'll see what I can do.

By the way, Alan, who died?

A fine American, sir, STUDIO.R...he fought in the Battle of Wounded Ankle. He was a valiant warrior...never met a woman he didn't like...and gave the Democratic party a bunch of money...and he really liked John "BY GOD" Wayne.

Well, I wish I could go too, Alan...but Barbara Walters is stopping by and...how old is she anyway, Alan? She looks pretty damn good!

Now Bill...you keep ol' "big wobbley" in your pants now!

Hey! You don't have to worry 'bout me, pard! I've learned my lesson...those damn legal bills are eatin' me alive.

Good boy, Billy! Maybe I'll see you later...hell maybe we could watch Bay Watch this evening.

That sounds great! And maybe have some puddin' too?

You bet, Billy! See ya!

Adios, amigo!

I am buying puts on either the xau or gold next week to ensure a bottom.

nomercy: Forget it my friend you are barking up the wrong tree. According to conventional cynicism the federal gov would never reduce the deficit. Well it will happen in the next 12 months. The Liberal government stays in power by doing what the "people" want and using their main competitions views on how to get it done. So debt begins to die next year right after the deficit is history. As for the Canada Pension Plan --we went through this last week. The plan to change contributions to make it solvent is to come into effect in 2001-2 and to be implemented over a 10 year period. You are raising a solved problem old buddy. The only problem of concern is whether the US can deal with the Asian currency crisis. If so all is well and if not there is real trouble.

In Feb 1997 we discovered Dresdner Bank sold 350 calls on gold for 17. This was at a time when gold reached 366 then started its tank. Those calls expire in May 1998. Does this date and EMU have any significance. Dresdner sure knew what the hell it was doing. My source at Royal Oak indicates gold could push 300-310 before months out based on the way traders say options for expiration are positioned. Next year the "desks" say prices could move higher but that 300-310 is a cap for this year. 285 is considered critical support a break of which means 270.

The situation in the gold market is as hopeless as I have ever seen for a market. It has not only the normal negative sentiment which accompanies price declines ie news follows price, but it has the constant talk of CB loans and sales overhanging making any point in buying seem futile. IE How will the CB factor ever go away? Or how can gold rise with the CB factor. Silver rising gives a little hope. The bearishness in this mkt makes the bearishness on US stocks in 1987 seem like bullishness.
Maybe CBs are responding to demand for loans which when that demand subsides ( lower lease rate now ) the price will rise. Thoughts?

Don't underestimate the fallout of the overvalued stockmarkets in the US & Canada with their lofty earnings expectations ( S&P 500 19x 1998 projected earnings ) and corresponding effects ( possible recession and then inflation periods ) .

We're in for a rude awakening. Cycle forces have not been abolished.

houston chronicle ----bloomberg----excerpted---


in cantonese the number 4 is pronounced sei,
which sounds like the ( cantonese ) word for death.
4 and combinations of 4 are are avoided and
considered ominous. ( re...666? )

the us$ currently is exchanged @ 4 ringgt ---- malaysia
4000 rupia -----indonesia
40 peso -----filipino
40 rupees -----india
close to 44 bhat -----thailand

roll-em------

YK2 is solvable, but I see the US Gov. dishing out billions at the last minute to save all their systems. Lower interest rates might help SLOW the expansion of the deficit, but not before we get rid of Clinton. Pay it off? Not in our lifetimes.

Sounds good to me. Let me know when you might be near town and we can get some eats.

The 9:36 post was very interesting. It helps confirm some suspitions

of mine regarding gold and the next generation. Generally, generations

tend to behave opposite of there predecessors. The baby boomers seem

to be ignorant about precious metals. Therefore, another bullish indicator for gold etc.

FOCUS-IMF loans arrive as more defaults hit Seoul
Analysts have predicted a chain of bankruptcies would be one of the main side-effects accompanying the biggest ever bailout package arranged by the International Monetary Fund ( IMF )
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971206/korea_2ndld_picture_2.html
The Halla Group said it has applied or plans to apply for special court protection against creditors or court receivership for six of its 18 units, including three core subsidiaries.

The companies are Halla Engineering and Construction Co, Halla Cement Manufacturing Corp, Halla Engineering and Heavy Industry Co, Halla Merchant Marine Co, Halla Pulp and Paper Co and Mando Machinery Corp.

The Korea Exchange Bank, one of Halla's biggest creditors, said the first five units had defaulted on an unspecified amount of debt. State Korean Broadcasting System reported they had defaulted on 221.1 billion worth of promissory notes.

The group had 6.34 trillion won ( $5.2 billion ) of debts at the end of 1996, 19.9 times its shareholders' equity of 319.2 billion won, data at the Korean Federation of Banks showed.

Earlier on Saturday the Korea Stock Exchange suspended trading in shares of the group's four listed units, including Halla Climate Control Corp, citing rumours that the companies had defaulted on debt payments.

The troubles, combined with concerns over debt repayments by Kyung Nam Wool Textile Co and Yungjin Pharmacy Co, had a dramatic effect on the stock market, which had posted big gains in the two days following the IMF deal.

nomercy. The fact that we can foresee a problem doesn't mean it has happened. Remember the last 18 months here with the expectation that gold was going up and the recent posts from folks who acted on that expectation and have lost their money. Sure the cycle will continue and there will be a recession and there may well be a depression but at the moment there is no sign of either just the fear of both. Don't wear your overcoat in the summer because you know that winter is next in the cycle. Unemployment is going down and unused capacity is being reduced. Once there is no more unused capacity look for inflation and once you see inflation look for recession--you get the idea. The Bank of Canada isn't going to willingly rates rate to support the C$ right in the middle of the Christmas shopping season when some companies either make a profit or don't and manufactures sell out their warehouses or think about layoffs. So unless the U$ raise rates Canada won't until Dec 26 or until
it appears that the seasonal buying is done for this year.

SELBY: As a canadian, I am very proud of the job Martin has accomplished in the past few years.. much better than many other countries. But keep in mind that the small surplus we might have in the years ahead wont change a thing. The next depression, recession or whatever will bring us back in huge deficits. The problem is that the debt is now too large. With the provinces we owe almost 100% of GDP close to $800 billions. Think about what a 2-3% increase in interest rates will do. I don't see how we can escape the crisis. With foreigners owning more than 40% of this debt, we are at the mercy of the world. What do you think will happen when the cycle turns down in North America.

The Peruvian Incas called Silver "Lagrimas de la Luna." Well, since August this year they have been tears of JOY, as Silver Futures are UP 23% since the DOW high in mid-August, all while the shiny yellow continued to dribble downwards. Just today, Silver Futures closed UP 12.5 cents ( +2.4% ) . And while the XAU relentlessly ground downwards, silver stocks have indeed been shinny examples of appreciation.

Rothschilds, Soros & RJ CANNOT BE WRONG

We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the Poor Mans Gold -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year Goldbugs Weekly Comment.

In Cormiers report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! -posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Lets capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%
Silver Standard ( SSO ) ...............UP 57%
International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%
First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) ..........UP 86%
United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%
Clifton Mining ( CFB ) ................Down 4%

Thats an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! - the current daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug613.html

...it appears that Ryo is attractive at these prices and I'm contemplating jumping in. I noticed that S&P has downgraded RYO on Friday. Apparently RYO is negotiating ( negotiated? ) $40 mill. additional funding plus I heard that they also disposed part of their equipment re: mine closures and that they raised an additional 5-10 million.

Are they capable of bringing Kewmess on line?

CC: I partly agree with you. We are in the same boat as the US--the rest of the world owns too much of our debt. So paying it off is the only route to go in I think. As for a down turn it is inevitable but given the booming economy here and to the south and with no inflation to speak of it is several years away. What happens to the debt in the next few years is very important. Not as important at the moment as the U$ response to the Asian crisis however. I'm off to assist the economy with a small individual buying spree so I'll be be back tomorrow probably.

nomercy: Before you jump into RYO--take a look at Flag Resources on Monday. Bye Bye

Study history for a lesson on liquidity
FRIDAY DECEMBER 5 1997
Letters to the Editor, FT

Sir,
In "Poll paralysis grips Seoul" ( November 27 ) you
report that the International Monetary Fund criticised
Korean banks for relying on short-term foreign loans
leaving the nation vulnerable to a liquidity crisis. So
true. Continental Illinois and so many other cases have shown that contrary to the text-book view, liquidity management is not about holding gilts or T-bonds but about diversifying liabilities. Rather than get fixated over macho exotic options, bankers the world over should study history.

Warren Edwardes,
managing director,
Delphi Risk Management,
3 Hyde Park Steps,
St. George's Fields,
London

Risk Management is the hot market abstraction. Note that Mr. Edwardes maintains that liquidity management is not about holding gilts or T-bonds ( or gold? ) , but about diversifying liabilities.

Does this provide a transparent window through which to view the global market place?

The young MBAers at the Cbs ( to use Jim Rogers description ) are Pricers: they can price any piece of paper, strip section A from section B, and paste it to paper C . The Pricers know the price of everything.

Remember O. Wildes definition of a cynic, A man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing.?

There was a time, not long ago, when bankers--and most particularly Central Bankers-- were Vaulers, and the banks vaults held gold ( which in the Bundesbanks lexicon is still called noble metal ) .

Perhaps what we now see is the Hour of the Pricers, those who believe everything has a price transparently available through mathematical formulae, independent of intrinsic value. Further, that this price, when arrived at, can be used to manage market risk.

The question then arises, what happens when market risk management is metamorphosed into a MARKET ?

To quote aurator:"I thought I just saw Lorenz in the hallway."
Does it all devolve down to the difference between
.506127 and .506?

You have to be careful with that 600 billion in Japanese holding of US Treasuries number. I think the best guess on the BOJ holdings is $280-300 billion. As they mature they are not rolling them over. Some are being used as collateral right now so they can spend the money without destroying the bill-bond market. The other $300 billion are held be banks, corporations and private investors. They are not under BOJ control , at least not directly. The BOJ may be influencing their usage in some way but I have not seen that reported.

Thanks. Will follow through on Flag.

I agree with you that the $600 bn figure which Ron Bevacqua, of Merrill Lynch in Tokyo, is questionable and it is the first time that I've come across it.

He must be including official, life insurance companies etc. But $600 is a lot of mula.

Another Merril Lynch no. which is questionable.

Any guesses on world-wide market cap for au stocks? Pocket change for Gates probably.

The Y2K problem is solvable? I have done extensive study on the matter and haven't found any reliable source that has a solution for the problem. How is it solvable, and by what method? Please let me know who has the answer. Thanks

SDRer, All: The following is from J. Orlin Grabbe's website. I was looking for Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's book "The Secret Life of Bill Clinton" , and found the following instead. AEP's book, which was discuused on C-Span on Oct 25, 1997, has mysteriously disappeared from view on US media. The unedited version is apparently very revealing.

SDRer, You may want to look up Leo Wanta, "former Abassador of Somalia from Switzerland and Canada". He apparently was a currency trader who had US government financial support of some kind, and was blamed for single handedly bringing down the Russian Rouble in 1990. Leo Wanta claimed that he caused "destabilization of the Soviet Rubles" and that he "prevented the Soviet and Italian Mafiosa from the Soviet funds in favour of our U.S. Treasury and metals accounts in excess of US$150 billion.

What may interest you ( SDRer ) is that he had connections with the IMF and gold sales. He was incarcerated for his activities, until he wrote Hillary a letter ( according to J Orlin Grabbe ) :

'Wanta was sentenced to 22 years in prison. ( Better he had killed a few people than that he owed taxes. ) Afterward, on Sept. 21, 1996, Wanta wrote a mysterious letter to Hillary Rodham Clinton, referring to "U.S. President Bill Clinton's Short Term Notes and IMF Sale of Bullion." In the letter Wanta referred to his own "de-stabilization of the Soviet Union Rubles ( SUR ) " and noted that he "prevented the Soviet & Italian Mafiosa from the Soviet Funds in favour of our U.S. Treasury & Metals Accounts in excess of US$ 150 billion".

Wanta then threatened: "Until by legal release from the un-consitutional/ false incarceration in Wisconsin--as a diplomat & non-resident--I am legally interested in the corporate placement of short-term notes & I.M.F. gold bullion/troy ounce delivery contract. Thank you for your kind assistance in this timely situation."

Wanta's letter ( or letters ) got results. On Jan. 10, 1997, Wanta received a reply from Erskine Bowles at the White House.

Mr. Leo E. Wanta

c/o Kettle Moraine

Correctional Institute

P.O. Box 31

Plymouth, WI 53073

Dear Mr. Wanta:

Thank you for your

letter. I appreciate

hearing from you.

To give your concerns the

proper attention, I have

forwarded your letter to

the Office of Agency

Liaison within the White

House. You can be certain

that your concerns will

be carefully reviewed.

Again, thank you for

writing.

Sincerely,

Erskine B. Bowles

On February 1, 1997, after Bowles had checked with W.H. Agency Relations, Leo Wanta was released on $90,000 bail'.

My comment ( JTF's ) is that the Russian mafia was heavily involved in the Russian Rouble in 1990, and the US$150billion in funds were used at the time. The obvious implication is that the Russian Mafia is still involved, and if Wanta had $US 150billion in 1990, some from the IMF, how many other traders out there are doing similar things now, ostensibly with implicit government approval! How can the Russian economy remain stable if the Russian Mafia has this much involvement?

The connection between Moctar Riady, Asia, the CIA, and Vince Foster's death is extra!

The Website is:

http://www.aci.net/kalliste/wanta.htm

Those prices you posted for retail oz @ $450 and 1/4 oz. @ $175. Are those prices US$? I bought sovereigns this week for US$84. Sovereigns are real coins, not gold tokens. They are a tiny fraction under 1/4 oz.

For Crunch

Thank you - I found the data from nomercy.

for Anybody -

Does anybody know where to get info on national gold holdings

between the end of the first world war and say 1935. After Germany

paid reparations to the Allies after WWI, how much gold did she

have left ??

Mornin'! What in tarnation is a "retail Gold Eagle," that it sells for $450? Uncirculated US Gold Eagles sell for spot plus about 5%.

All: Please read J Orlin Grabbe's web site posted in my 11:20 post below. It will give you some insight into how much access the Russian Mafia has to the Russian financial system -- though it takes a little reading and thinking of the implications.

As far as I am concerned, Russia is the next domino to fall!

Donald -- any comments?

Any comments? Especially on the Fed's comments on gold.

All: Has anyone seen reference to this book? There is one reference to it on C-Span, but all other references seem to be missing. Versions not edited for American consumption may be circulating in Europe. I sure would like to get an unedited version.

Have any of you bought stock in the Rydex Mutual Fund? ( I think I have that name right ) . Its a fund, as I understand it, which buys puts in stocks which it suspects are overpriced and are ready to be taken out to the coal bin and whipped severely by the market. I would be interested in knowing how it has done this year with the market moving up almost without any visible means of support. If the fund is reputative it would appear that some big money could be made there when the market does its correction for real.

On money management. The Clinton administration has moved a lot of its maturing long term debt into short term T-bills in order to get the lower rate and help reduce borrowing costs. Invert the yield curve and it goes poof. We were a whisker away from inversion until the bond selloff yesterday morning. An earlier post of mine said the Fed intervened to try and restore balance yesterday morning.

Sorry: Quotation marks suppress text in the subject heading.

cool luker: Does Alan get a plot in Arlington National Cemetary if he behaves, and leaves Bill alone?

Rydex has several funds, including precious metals. You are probably talking about Rydex Ursa. It is the S&P index in mirror reverse. I own it but I am a bit concerned because it uses derivatives to do it. In a real crunch you could make money but never get paid because the derivatives crapped out.

Tort: Couldn't agree with ya more!! And yes the casino in Sydney ( Sheraton ) took more of my money ( sickly grin thing ) ~~~~~~~~~God bless Canada Post cause I certainly WON'T....

Donald: If there is little long-term US debt, and there is a run on treasuries, what are the options?

The only thing I can think our government can do is inflate the national debt. As far as I can recall gold bullion sales are not permited without congressional approval.

Any other options now that our brilliant government leaders have "reduced interest costs" by phasing out of long-term debt?

Sure. They can do what the French did in the 1960's. "Due to the current national emergency 20% of your pay will be invested for you in U.S. T-bonds with a 30 year maturity."

JTF@11:20
This is a RICH VEIN! Thank you so much for sharing. I, like you,
would certainly like to read that book ( unedited ) . Isn't it
'scary' that as Americans we now worry about getting unedited
editions of books?
Also wanted to compliment you on a couple of particularly excellent
posts...enjoyed them immensely.

Donald@11:32
As I've said many times before, you are a natural resource of great
value I try to go back and pick-up your posts when I log-in, and
thank you too, but we often miss connections because of the
time warp...So, again, "Thank you very much. You might be surprised
at how very much it DOES help!"

Thanks for the comments on Rydex Ultra. That was the fund that I was speeking of. Your comments have made me suffiently cautious.

Two years ago the Nova Scotia gov'ment under the brilliant leadership ( ??_ of Dr. John Savage signed a contract with an Ontario gold company ( the name slips me cause I'm gettin senile ) to develope a gold mine in Cape Breton ( Jim Cambell Barrens ) but our new premier ( local Sydney 'boy'Russell ( what's a business contract ) MacLellan recently told em the deal is off,contract or no contract......The company had already spent over a MILLION DOLLARS and is now threatening ( do it!!! ) to sue the province of Nova Scotia....duh--wonder why??....Welcome to the Socialistic Republic of Nova Scotia!!! At the same time the political leaders ( ??? ) are pushing Ottawa for money to develop a new COAL MINE ( with some of the highest sulpher content ) at Donkin which is right on the ocean cause this is their lousy heritage and 'they' like ta live in the freakin past...The first coal mine in North America was about ten miles down the road from me in Port Morien and we currently have a coal minning company ( ???? ) totally gov'ment subsidized of course named DEVCO....Their coal is also highly sulpherous and the end cost to produce that 'crap' is approx. TEN times the mean average in the USA....What's wrong with this picture??? Why commit yerself to a mental institution in the USA when ya can live in Cape Breton ( land of rocket scientists )

Donald: I just had a wild ( perhaps not so wild ) idea! The IMF says it has a shortage of cash in one of your posts today.

However, the Central Banks that work with the IMF ( and BIS ) all are required to have reserves in US dollars ( 25%, I think ) . Why not just pass these dollars around from bank to bank, to keep the system afloat?

It might work for a while, just like I might just keep getting new credit cards, and floating my debt to the next one. Great scheme while it lasts!

Am I being too imaginative about what might be happening? Just how much of the bailouts are going to come out of the American taxpayers hides as US federal debt, and not from the IMF? I bet most members of the US congress are not aware of what is already happening, even with or withour approval. Am I offbase? I would guess that the bank of England would be more than willing to give US dollars to Japan rather than pounds.

JTF,

I found this excerpt from "The Secret Life of Bill Clinton" on www.freerepublic.com. Watch your kids, it's rated R:

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a35288.htm

I haven't seen the book to verify that this text is there.

Dear JTF:

A SOURCE ( whom can not be identified ) tells me there is irrefutable evidence that A.G. has been stealing bullion. When this is made public, A.G. will be forced to resign in humiliation and will later become a sports analyst on CNBC.

cool lurk.

JTF,

I found this excerpt from "The Secret Life of Bill Clinton" on www.freerepublic.com. Watch your kids, it's rated R:

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a35288.htm

I haven't seen the book to verify that this text is there.

Donald: I have heard about that. Frightening. I have several questions:

First, how much warning would we have? Ie -- is it covered by war powers act or similar ruling, or would Congress have to approve?

Secondly, how would foreign investors respond? I would guess that the ruling would be "domestic treasuries only", and foreign investors would be spared.

Why would any smart Americans with savings want to keep them in the US if this was likely to happen? Is this part of the reason BC has an offshore trust account?

Makes me nervous when most of my cash is in short-term treasuries, but so is AG's!

We ( Sydney ) have a steel company ( ??? ) too named SYSCO.....Another 'make work' company run on the largesse of Ottawa as all they do is make defective steel ( even the Canadian gov'ment rejected their latest batch of rails ) and lose MILLIONS of dollars a year....Ottawa- You have created a JOKE but it is NO joke to hard workin Canadians from other provinces!!! Shut off the god damn spigot and stop this policy of APPEASEMENT as 'it' is never enuf~~~~~~~~~~~~~go gold + CAPITALISM ( duh,what's that )

Tolerant1? and I were speculating about that the other day. Someone gave an example where it was done in England during the South Sea Bubble. They lined up at the front door to get paid during the bank run and ran around to deposit the money again through the side door, only to pay it out again at the front door. Barings Bank I think. Clinton keeps saying we made a profit on the Mexican bailout. That is not true. In order for Mexico to pay us back we had to give money to the IMF. They in turn loaned it to Mexico, who paid us. We are still out the money.

I remember the conversation but I was following it not engaged in it. I cannot fo the life of me remember the person who made the comment you refer to in your post.

Mikeharry - My estimate for world's total gold mining market cap is between $30-$40 billion. This compares to, say Coca Cola's market cap of about $140 billion, Microsoft's market cap of $110 billion.

http://users.aimnet.com/~dtowner/orders.html

Just groovin and lurching...er lurking......go team gold!! Will do some research to come up with the name of the Ontario gold company who had the stupidity to try and do business here.....Bart: Ban EB ( he's anti-gold and I suspect some kinda mole tryin ta disrupt our happy little group ) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/mac628.html

7. UP TO 25% OF A PORTFOLIO SHOULD BE IN A FOREIGN CURRENCY FUND - a fund of T-Bill-type paper issued by a number of foreign governments ( Britain, France. New Zealand. Switzerland, Belgium, Germany, Japan, Australia, etc. ) . These funds are U.S. investments but are a bet against ( and diversification out of ) the U.S. dollar. Over the past decade. total return ( including income and appreciation against the U.S. dollar ) , in such funds has averaged 10-12% per year.

8. OFFSHORE DIVERSIFICATION - A growing number of Americans, especially those with a net worth over $500,000, who are afraid of the Clintons, and what they may do to America in their second term, are moving assets out of the United States. Switzerland is probably the primary, but not only, destination. The Clinton Administration and the Congress are taking steps place restrictions on Americans moving assets out of the country which are probably the forerunner to full-blown foreign exchange controls.

Recently, the IRS extensively revised its rules regarding offshore ( or "foreign situs" ) trusts. The rules are complex and affect different trusts differently. In effect. they beef up reporting requirements, attempt to limit taxdeferral benefits. and increase the interest rate charge on accumulated tax distributions.

People wishing to expatriate from the U.S. ( move from the U.S. and renounce their citizens ship ) will now be taxed on their income, capital gains and estate when ( and after ) leaving the U.S. via hidden rules in the Health Insurance Portability Act which are retroactive to February, 1995. The IRS can continue to track and tax ex-citizens on their income for 10 years after they have left America. New stringent reporting laws are now to be imposed on expatriates and the government is given the power to impose an immediate capital gains tax on all your assets and to prevent you from taking your property out of the U.S. And Congress has said that if a foreign government's laws conflict with U.S. laws, U.S. laws take precedence.

The IRS. under lobbying pressure from the U.S. insurance industry, has also proposed regulations to take away the tax deferral status of foreign annuities issued by non-U.S. companies. If these regulations are put into place, undistributed income in Swiss ( and other foreign ) annuities would be taxed by the U.S. government. Should that occur, owners of these annuities will either pay the tax or switch into Swiss endowment insurance contracts which are not likely to be taxed.

The above changes ( and there are many more coming ) are early warning signals of the U.S. government imposing foreign exchange controls on Americans. This writer has long warned of the cost of procrastination. People who wish to reposition some ( or all ) of their assets abroad may see this window of opportunity closing over the next year or so and should act now while the window is at least partially open. Swiss annuities or endowment contracts are still legal and should be acquired expeditiously for those wishing to have offshore diversification.

For information on Swiss annuities or endowments, write to: BFI Consulting AG, P.O. Box 50-250, 8123 Ebmatingen. Switzerland.

[ED. NOTE: It is still completely legal for an American to own an offshore business ( like any large multinational ) and to do business on an international basis. For certain people ( in the Import/export, tourism, publishing, manufacturing businesses ) such a business could be very profitable and would not normally be subject to foreign exchange controls.]

CONCLUSION: Economic, social and political upheaval is very likely in the U.S. over the next 12 to 24 months. It is time ( actually. it is getting very late ) to take aggressive steps to protect your assets and move toward greater self-sufficiency. 1996 is past and 1997 is upon us. 1997, in MIA's opinion, will be the beginning of very difficult times - great political, social and financial upheaval which will go past the end of the decade and beyond.

Conservative investors should be hedging their assets and lifestyles against the coming tidal wave of socialism which is about to engulf America; against the collapse of the U.S. economy; and against the coming meltdown in the U.S. stock market. As Proverbs 27:12 says: "The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it."

Looks like gold and the XAU will rally somewhat from here, but we need to see if the recent lows can hold on the next reaction before even thinking about a bottom. If $285 is taken out with conviction, then look for $270-$275 in short order.

BTW, according to Steve Kaplan, Martin Armstrong of Princeton Economics -- correctly bearish for many moons -- expects gold to bottom around $270-$275. He is looking for NEW ALL TIME HIGHS within 5 years.

The current strong stock market rebound is not surprising. As long as gold is in the dumps, the dollar remains strong, and the bond bull continues -- a prolonged bear market or crash in U.S. stocks is out of the question. Sharp corrections yes, but a big bear no.

The stock market probably will come under serious pressure again early next year. If the dollar and bonds also tank and gold is able to move up strongly, the big bear will have arrived. But if the greenback remains strong, bond yield stay low, and the gold dump persists, it will mark still another buying opportunity.

http://www.thewinds.org/archive/government/eobf6-97.html

Selby,

Your post to CC ... Interesting perspective - while I agree this bull market likely as some legs left, with each incremental rise, the risk of stock ownership also rises. With histortically high P/E's now and other yardsticks of evaluation appearing to be equally high, IMO we will reach a point, - and not "several years into the future", when even the most stalwart bull will stop and wonder if the increased risk is worth the deminishing rate of return.

I agree - what the US does NOW is critical. The Asian crisis looms and it is much too early to tell if they can rescue this situation. I am not so sure keeping this bull charging forward, will in the long run, be the smartest move; much better in my opinion to take a pretty good hit now, than do it like Japan did over the last several years. Can you imagine the catastrophy a collapsing stock market would cause, at some point in the future, when the biggest number of retirees North America has ever seen ( baby boomers ) are hoping to leave the workforce - the devestation to pension funds would be ruinous.

Frankly, I am of the opinion things have already gone too far, IMO our debt loads ( Canada\US ) will never be paid off without massive economic upheaval. Call me a doomer an gloomer ... but that is the way I see it.

Do you know if Franklin/Templeton Hard Currency Fund is recommended? I bought into it when the US$ was low, unfortunately, but it does pay some good dividends. Thanks much.

What percent of the vote would you receive in your parts campaigning to end govt support for welfare programs and outdated inefficient industries and for self reliance?

No, I am not sure of the status.

steady & Mikeharry: I would agree with your $40 Billion estimate -- interestingly, that's just $3 billion shy of Bill Gate's current holdings of Micrsoft. One would think the EGG-HEAD would diversify a little ( :- ) )

I still consider one of the best things people can do is open an e-gold account. This is the only form of real money on the planet in my opinion. Plus it is a great way to accumulate physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

Any questions about e-gold can be addressed to admin@e-gold.com

Write them an e-mail and let them prove the value of their system to you. I think you will be as pleased as I am and will open an account.

I think the strong employment numbers are a ruse to money coming into the dollar. As OLDGOLD emphasizes I will reemphasize: ITS the dollar stupid. This requires a stable to strong stk mkt and good econ numbers. Remeber the day the Dow tanked The next day the Yen soared. Once the mkt regained its footing the Yen began to fall again. Comments.

Good post -- as a lurker I seem to spend hours sifting thru these boards trying to figure how to protect my dwindleing retirement funds ( as so many others ) . As I'm long on gold both physical and Au stocks your comments about the bearishness of this market ring true. Observations : Ag and Au have been de-coupled for some time and will remain so, don't try to chart their progress from our old school economics. Not withstanding some unuseual Ag inventory swings late Thurs. and Fri. the fundamentals look good for a yr end rally. Au on the otherhand is problematic a run would be great but the CB's want gold no higher than $310. The trends your friend. Main concern is that this is a deadcat bounce.

I'm to frustrated, to nervious and too tired from makeing a small gold fortune from a very big one..... hand me the towel! ... regards

In the "banker's crisis handbook"**, the tactic is called
"Stalling" and thru 500 years, has proved quite effective...
I suspect--as do you--that it is being used now too...
we are, as sharefin has pointed out, creatures of habit!

last thoughts before attending to weekend duties

table in the Economist listing 10 biggest cap corporations in world
Microsoft is number one or two
Microsofts fixed assets are not fixed
they can walk
they also, 75-90% of them,
are, thanks to stock options,
millionaires
suppose x% decide to smell the worlds flowers
and leave
price Microsofts shares...

must ask again
Economists Price Index
SDR is basket of 5 currencies
the countries these currencies call home
are reporting low or no inflation
how can the SDR Price Index show double-digit
inflation numbers year-on-year?

and short term US financing
the British government
when the pound was gold-backed
issued perpetual bonds
US debt is short and getting shorter
because the credit risk is viewed
dimly ( except, of course, by the Japanese--God Bless 'em )
but nobody believes
that

the world has stopped making sense

**Charles P. Kindleberger, "Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A history of Financial Crises"
BBL

low-level sub-mini class wafting, ever-so-slowly, burrito flying through yer neighborhood on reconnaissance...

a.w.a.y...

puttinuplightsofjoyohmyorugh;- ( butdrinkineggnogandcheeringall;- )

go gold...!

You might want to look at BEARX it is run by David Tice It is called the Prudent Bear Fund. This may be of help to you.

The mystery of that yeller Gold,
Will make a feller mighty Bold.

To own a stash,
sends imaginations of king cash.

While Gold prices are reeling,
Goldbugs get that uneasy feeling.

Some are very serious,
Others are simply delirious.

Chat stories unfold,
Confessing the untold.

Some say fessing is good for the soul,
Much as birthing of a new foal.

Thoughts turn to yellow pudding,
Remembering the past one previously couldn't.

It seems the beating he's taken in the buff,
Has caused remembrance of the awful yellow stuff.

For Steady

I had estimated total market cap all golds at 65 billion end august 1997. Nasty developments since then would bring it down to 40/45. Actually this doesnt count Lihir but includes ashanti,buenaventura.

In any case its pretty low but then its pretty unprofitable.

Depressing

Hi! I have enjoyed reading the material on this site for several months now. This is my first posting.

The CB's successfull attemps at running down the price of a commodity which they own is entertaining at the least. If they were seriously going to sell their gold in the near future, then badmouthing the metal whenever it has an opportunity to rise doesn't sound like a brilliant business move. So far all I hear is how they sold for an average price of $380.00 six months ago. When I hear that a CB is selling their gold at $290.00 today, then I could take this as bearish news. The gold has been sold for the reason of collecting interest with paper when interest rates are at their lowest levels in years, another brilliant business move. I suspect they are selling the furniture before they have to go bankrupt.

Another interesting concept that I keep reading is the 15 years it will take the Central Banks to sell all thier holdings to the gold buying public. Fifteen years from now the world population will double and have to rely on the feeble gold mining industry to supply all their needs. Of course they will have forward sold contract of $290.00 to fulfill. If this scenario came to pass I can only imagine that the sky would be the limit for the shiny metal. Here's an opportunity to put your kids through college. One gOld coin purchased today should do it.

To all those lemming investors who love to buy high and sell low with thier gold or gold mining shares I offer a word of advice. Don't quit your day job.

G-Bug

From the Privateer I reached the World Gold Council Page. There is a two part article by Richard Pomboy which makes you wonder whether the CBs really want to push gold down. In fact what some have said may be true it is the speculators and banks using the story to induce loans and make profits on their shorts. It makes sense and he concludes that eventually producers will stop forward selling as it will only lock in losses and those with gains will start to to want to lock in profits. The lower lease rates currently may indicate that the demand for loans is subsiding and thus the forward selling at this level is subsiding. If this is true we should see a rally soon. He points to many comments from CB officials supporting gold. Maybe its a matter of financial media emphasis or simply since speculators are pushing the price down any positive CB statement about gold sales is pulled out ( remember news follows price ) . It is unlikely gold supportive statements would be alluded to when the price falls. When the price rises we may hear them. This letter especially the second part is eye opening. I am beginning to think the CBs are neutral on gold and the forward selling and spec borrowing from CBs is what is driving it down. Remember for a CB to make a loan there has to be demand for the loan/as indicated by lease rates/if there was no demand to borrow then there would be no CB lending.

Silver is a different story here the lease rate is high while prices rise indicating a shortage. Conversely gold fell when lease rates are high indicating a demand to borrow in order to sell and the CBs provide the sale inventory to make extra dough and why shouldnt they. Pomboy points out that the CB gold is sold and made into jewelry and thus not immediately recoverable so CBs may recall loans if prices start to rise. Finally the currency of every country especially Australia has plunged after they sold gold. Hard to believe the Euros dont see this. French CB member said gold will be very important to Euro.

Today's Denver Rocky Mountain News, Bussines Section/Business Briefing/National:

"Inflation Up: A private measurement of inflation rose in November for the first time in four months, a sign U.S. price pressures could start to accelerate.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute said its monthly future inflation gauge rose to 111.0 last month from a revised 109.6 in October."

This implies, if continued for 12 months, a compounded inflation rate of 16 percent.

As long as people promote the idea of CB selling they are playing into the hands of the shorts since the spectre of CB sales is a huge psychological impediment to the market and drives the industry to sell forward and shoot itself in the foot. The evidence regarding CBs that they will sell a little but cautiously. ( I think the Argwentine annoucement was a self congratulation ) Others consider gold important and have been buying. IT IS THE BORROWING WHICH IS DRIVING THE PRICE DOWN THE CBs SUPPLY THE LIQUIDITY TO MAKE EXTRA MONEY. The key point is that the CBs do not iniate the borrowing activity and thus are not the FORCE behind the decline. The fear of CB selling is just INCREASING THE BORROWING ACTIVITY. Low lease rates may be indicating that the price is too low to induce borrowing then selling. We will see soon.

Wert: Pray enlighten us on how you found out the CBs want gold no higher than $310.

I think the Major CB's of the free world have a buttload of gold. I think that the amount of gold they hold is soooooo huuuuuuge that they have no reason NOT to rid itself of some......hell.....if only to appease the Groovy Goldbugs of the free and non-free world. There will be MORE sales and MORE sales. And the price of gold will go down because of it. The price will, then, go back up......and the cycle will continue......and time will be eternal.......and the Lakers will WIN the NBA Championship...................handley......with enthusiasm.....and gusto........and plenty 'o dunks.........uh huh.....go gold.

away...to sneak back to hanging lights...hehe

santa.ho.ho.ho....;- ) }} ( santawithbeardthing )

Donald, It's my understanding that the President can issue whatever order he deems necessary. It is in the implementation of the order that the sh*t hits the fan. First, congress can cut off whatever funds are required. Second, once implemented, its constitutionality can be challenged. Third, any necessary legislation necessary for implementation can be challenged constitutionally.

OLDGOLD The only people who want anti gold CB story spun are the financial boys. The evidence does not support the thesis that the CBs want gold down. The positive comments from CBs about gold out number the negative but the negative are embellished to induce borrowing and shorting. The CBs get blamed for others wanting to borrow. When you borrow from the bank it is the debtor who decides whether to try to get a loan.

Did you enjoy Russian food?

It seems that many in the U.S. know about borsht, but nobody
knows exactly what it is and how to cook it. By the way, the name
of this soup got changed over here also, no "t" should be at the
end of the word, just "borsh".

I bet this restaurant doesn't serve platinum as a meal, and my
advise can not be applied in this particular place of business
with complete effectiveness.

But thanks for trying, what you did is absolutely great and it is
filling my heart with feeling of pride for this smart advice of mine
to you. Now I know it was not wasted but treasured indeed...

Keep going, somebody should have 2 sets of books.....

If you have time, I would still appreciate it very much if you could
give me your advise on SA mines, even very brief one...

Best regards

I'll take a look at BEARX. Thanks much.

WSJ had an article discussing year end bonuses for hundreds of traders and investment advisors. This years bonuses are hitting records. It is not unusual to receive $6-8 million. Appears that the paper game is still very lucrative.

http://www.numismaticrareuscoin.com/own.htm

To All:
A question conerning the leasing of gold from the CB's.
When the CB's lease their gold, is it physically removed from their storage area and sold on the open market to wind up as jewelry or is it just a paper transaction ( a backing for someone who's going to short it and sell the contract on the open market ) . It seems to me if it is just a paper transaction and they still hold the physical gold then the fool is the speculator and/or hedge fund, the CB hasn't lost anything and is also getting 2-4% interest. Now if it is physically sold on the open market by the speculator then I will agree that their is a chance that it may never get replaced, in that case the CB's are being foolish. Regarding all of the articles concerning the CB's leasing or loaning their gold, I've yet to read anywhere that is is physcially gone or just a paper transaction. If it is just a paper transaction then all of the predicitions that the CB's will never see their gold again is irrelevant, to me it's still there. Can someone answer this question and respond to this post ??????? Regards.

The gold is removed from the central bank and sold in the spot market.
The central bank gets a promise to return the gold at a specified date and the lease fee.

I was looking for some information on challenges. I know that the some have been. I have heard some are secret; you don't even know what to challenge.

Donald_A, re your 11:22 post: Yes, people in US coin stores are paying $450US for one ounce US coins. Insane isn't it? Worse, yet they pay sales tax on them!

There is a common complaint here that as our manufacturing industry goes overseas all our jobs are either government or service sector. We import shirts for $0.50 from third world slave factorie for $0.50 then mark them up through three layers of distribution to sell to the consumers for $25.00. IMHO

Bank failures are caused by depositors who don't deposit enough to cover losses due to mismanagement. -
Dan Quayle

that should make for an interesting Monday...

Camels nose in the tent...
Im am greatly heartened by the many posts exculpating the CBs in the
gold lending story.

I would only add that I find worrying the concept that a stationery asset is an EXPENSIVE** asset, which is, to my way of thinking, the mind-set of the Pricers, and represents, if only in a small way, the camels nose in the derivative tent.

**In the translation of the Bundesbank press release, someone questioned the word expensive, and I must admit, that I wondered too as I translated. But it occurred to me that in the Pricers banking world, it ( gold ) was expensive because it didnt earn any interest and they had found a way to ameliorate that terrible flaw...

All - Can anyone PLEASE post an address that would give Money Supply ( primarily M3 ) LATEST data. Either a change in the indicator or totals. The sites posted before do not include recent information.
Thank in advance!!!

when central banks lease there gold the gold is really sold on the open market. A physical transaction not a paper transaction.

USA TODAY ( Dec. 4 ) -
For the latest 13 weeks, M2 averaged $3,974.7 billion, a 6.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate of gain from the previous 13 weeks. M3 averaged $5,243.5 billion, up 10.3%. Both measures of money supply will give impetus to rising inflation.

The Hong Kong Oracle, Milhouse, has always maintained there is a positive correlation between the trends of money supply ( M3 ) and the price of gold. In light of M3s accelerating growth rate in recent months - the highest increase in over a decade, and nearly DOUBLE the Feds upper range guideline - it is well worth a re-study of Milhouses study, US MONEY SUPPLY AND THE DEMAND FOR GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831f.html

Glenn, let me get this right. I put some asset for a lease, you take a lease and you can go ahead to sell it?!? This gold market is stranger than I thought. Try that with any other asset. OK, le'me see, I'd be a real estate company leasing an office space. There comes time to renew a lease I call you and "what? you sold it? How could you it's not yours?!!"

Go figure. Are you sure?!

Just lurking~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"The only reason some people are poor is because they don't have enough money."

I SEE I am not the only one that is sneaking a look at the web in the middle of holiday decorating....I don't think Ted and the others here at Kitco have figured out yet that when you say "GO GOLD" you are leaving out the fact that you mean GO Down!!!!

Am I correct in this observation?

As a relatively new poster I am still learning about everyones unique cyberpsyche & personality. SOMETIMES IT IS A BIT LIKE ALICE IN WONDERLAND.

Flicker....flicker~~~~~~~~~~~~~bbMl

I was starting to think that all of your posts were just randomly generated to make folks aware of the latest articles on you site.

I have heard from others at this that you used to post very frequent cogent thought regarding the inner working of the market . I love your web page by the way...keep up the good work...DQ is a scary guy isn't he.

If you were to set up a wind mill farm on the property would the local utility be forced to purchase the excess generated power ...that would be the case in the states.

Miro & Glenn: You will find the following very relevant and eye-popping to your concerns about Gold Leasing.

Further to my comment regarding Germanys Central Bank ( Bundesbank ) Gold Lending practices, I feel it very relevant to comment on Ted Butlers activities and expertise on the subject. In early April this year Ted Butler penned a audacious letter, which he sent to none other than:

The Honorable Alan Greenspan
Chairman of the Board of Governors
Federal Reserve Board

The Honorable Robert E. Rubin
Secretary of the Treasury
Washington, DC

His astute analysis is as astounding as it is enlightening about the adverse and dire ramifications of the dangerous and financially stupid Central Bank practice of Gold Loans. It literally rings with logic and clarity... and may be seen in its entirety at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/thschild414.html


88888888888

BANK GOLD LENDING PRACTICES

D.A. ( gold.lending ) & Kahunna: YOUR COMMENTS --
Should the companies go belly up without having repaid their ( GOLD ) loans, some bullion banks are going to find themselves on line with other creditors. They will then have to go to the open market to buy gold to return to the central banks. And ...when it comes time to repay or provide the gold for delivery isn't someone gonna take a bath? I would like to complement both your astute observations with the following.

Over a month ago GOLD-EAGLE reported the Confession of the Bundesbank that it HAD BEEN MAKING GOLD LOANS FOR SOME TIME. In our comment we called special attention to a scathing critique of Central Bank Gold lending practices. The report was compiled by Ted Butler.

Mr. Butlers study, which rings with logic and clarity in emphatically stating the GOLD LENDING PRACTICE RAMIFICATIONS BY CENTRAL BANKS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE YELLOW METAL TO SOAR IN VALUE.

When Central Banks awake from their stupor & stop giving away their GOLD for free, supply side of metal fundamentals will develop an immediate vacuum & Gold prices will SOAR:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler816.html

To anyone interested

Some points on Nazi Gold

1. France is unwilling to put its share of "looted

nazi gold" into fund for holocaust victims.

2. The World Jewish Congress says that 50 -60

tons of ( looted Nazi ) gold belonged to individual

victims.

3. During the period when Hitler come to power

there were about 600,000 Jewish people in

Germany. Many of the victims were in other countries

poland - russia - Greece.

4. Germany has already paid over 50 billion $ to

victims of the holocaust

I wonder how much gold Germany HAD in those days.

50-60 tons seems like a lot of gold for 1935 IMO.

On a prorata basis, it must be equivalent to at

least twice that much now. Im not clear on The

330 tons of total nazi gold - is that all they

had after confiscating the holdings of all the

countries they occupied ?? Doesnt seem like much

for all the countries they took. I havent found

data on this yet.

I never realized how much money was involved in

this matter.

RE: "The Secret Life of Bill Clinton" by Abrose Evans-Pritchard.

This is a recent article from the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette which I thought was a Klinton apologist rag. But this story relates why Pritchard included information on the two young boys who died mysteriously and how their deaths may have been connected to drug smuggling into Arkansas via the Mena airport. If this book is as accurate as I have heard, this country is headed for a political crisis and those Executive Orders could be implemented sooner than we think.

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a44917.htm

SDRer: REF: "**In the translation of the Bundesbank press release, someone questioned the word expensive, and I must admit, that I wondered too as I translated. But it occurred to that in the Pricers banking world, it ( gold ) was expensive because it didnt earn any
interest and they had found a way to ameliorate that terrible flaw. Perhaps another appropriate word translation would be "costly."

" I got enough money to last the rest of my life - "

" as long as I dont buy anything"

Answer - A gold bug

MIRO: All ounces of gold are identical. SO the leaser can sell it any time. He knows he can buy back the same anytime. Not so with rented office space.

SORRY Guys for the wrong URL. GOLD-EAGLE now has more than 550 webpages, I was obviously on the wrong one. Her is the CORERECT SITE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler414.html

CC "All ounces of gold are identical", well so are the cars. Did you ever tried to sell a leased car? ;- )

....the sadness and grief of losing our beloved brother, STUDIO.R. Deeply loved by all for his golden heart and generous demeanor...we must say good-bye to this noble and gentle man who now walks the streets of gold ( with a hammer and chisel in his hip pocket! ) and he is no longer burdened by the toils of everyday markets that slowly collapse into the
darkness and oblivion of a living hell! He is free now to fly toward the sun with the power of his golden wings ( that will melt and send him reeling into a surface temperature of 8000 degrees...where he'll deep-fry like a tater-tot! ) . And with that we say Adieu! O Great Goldbug!
Bon Voyage STUDIO.R!

( ( ( Eric Clapton, a very close friend of STUDIO.R's now plays "Tears in Heaven" ) ) )

( ( ( The Blue Angels fly above in the missing goldbug formation ) )

( ( ( A 21 gun salute fired by Clint Eastwood, another dear friend ) ) )

Ms. Cool Lurk gently touches the brow of her beloved son and places two Austrian Philharmonics over his eyes...and the casket is closed. Slowly lowered into the ground until the last glimmer of the golden casket dims from view. It is over.

"I loved him as if he were my own son, Ms. Lurk", says Alan Greenspan, "even though I never met him." Grrroooowwwlll...."Oh, excuse my stomach, Ms. Lurk, I haven't eaten all day."

"Oh, Mr. Greasecan, my son would have been so pleased to know you cared enough to be here and please do come by the reception...many of your friends will be there." "Did Andrea come with you?"

"No, maam, she's at the White House with Mr. Clinton working on a piece."

"I do so much want to see you again, Alan."

"I'll be there, maam."

Money Supply url

http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/money.html

I just read an article written by Michael Nairne, president of The Equion
Group, published in today's issue of the Globe and Mail.The article is
entitled "Reign in those great expectations".

I thought the following excerpt worthy of a post.

"At a recent industry conference, a highly qualified financial planner
from Hamilton sighed with disappointment as he shared a story with me.
A businessman who is one of his better clients, whose goal is a secure,
moderate growth portfolio, had called out of the blue to move his account."

He said he could do better elsewhere than the 18-per-cent annual return
he had earned over the last three years, My planner friend shook his head with amazement as he said, "My comments about risk and the
potential for significant corrections ahead weren't even heard. He was
totally mesmerized by the allure of 25-per-cent-plus returns.""

IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE????????????????

EXUBERANT IRRATIONALITY????????????????

or just plain freekin GREED????????????

On March the 2nd, 1933, however, we find that Herbert Hoover had written a letter to the Federal
Reserve Board of New York, asking them for recommendations for action based on the over-all
situation at the time. The Federal Reserve Board responded with a resolution ( Exhibit 30 ) which
they had adopted, an excerpt from which follows:

"Resolution Adopted By The Federal Reserve Board Of New York. Whereas, in
the opinion of the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
the continued and increasing withdrawal of currency and gold from the banks
of the country has now created a national emergency ..."

Personal Finance newsletter for Dec 10 arrived in the mail today. A feature article by Greg Dorsey says Go for the Gold. Gold stocks are compared to oil driller stocks in the early 90's, when oil prices were in the dumps and many industry players were bankrupt or on the verge of going under. Drilling stock prices rose 4-to-5-fold since then, on only a small increase in the price of oil. The article sees a strong parallel to gold mining stocks today. The universal disdain for gold and gold stocks today, along with the belief that inflation has been tamed forever, with the crowd turning its back on the whole sector, is a good sign the sector is at a bottom. He likes NEM, HM, ABX, and FN.

http://afcomm.com/afc/report.html

Ted, if your electrical supply is this eratic consider buying a Miller Bobcat 225. In addition to being a dandy little welding machine it has a 8000kv generator. You can get an electrician to install a supply line at your house disconnect and when the lights flicker, fire up the generator, disconnect the power from the electric company and plug in the house. I have one of these blue machines with over 3000 hours on it. Generating it takes from 1 1/2 to 2 gallons of gasoline. Change the filter every week if it is for constant use ( 40 hours when in warranty ) and keep the home fires burning. Down here they run from 2800 to 3000 dollars. May be a little higher up there.

I think they have...

away

thinkstedaintsodumbashelooks.go.gold;- )

Give me one of those big Grin Thingies...

away...to find some Big mushrooms

TimLeary

Steady ,

Here's the direct URL to the Fed's current release.

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/H6/Current/

National emergency or not, Presidential Proclimations and Orders have the force of law. Whether it's The EMancipation Proclimation or "tomorrow will be known as Hillary Day in the US". Perhaps these two sites will aid your search.

http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/direct.htm

http://www.law.du.edu/library/pubs/prez.htm

Puetz, was yesterday's new high for the S & P part of the Bear market "Crash" pattern that began Oct. 27? just curious.

TO nomercy ( RE: RYO post ) ;
RYO attractive? contemplating jumping in? You can JUMP in but
don't expect us to bail you out. RYO was not a good investment
when gold was @ $400 and it is certainly not a good investment
now @ $290. Cash flow positive but try & find a year where they
made money?

SOURCE: Standard & Poor's CreditWire

S&P Takes Various Rating Actions on Gold Mining Companies

NEW YORK, Dec. 5 /PRNewswire/ -- Reflecting the recent deterioration in gold prices, coupled with the
possibility of a sustained period of continued weak prices, Standard & Poor's has taken the following rating
actions:

Echo Bay Mines Ltd.: Corporate credit rating lowered to double-'B'-minus from double-'B'; senior
subordinated debt rating lowered to single-'B'-plus from double-'B'-minus. Ratings placed on CreditWatch
with negative implications.
Royal Oak Mines, Inc.: Corporate credit rating lowered to single-'B' from single-'B'-plus; senior
subordinated debt rating lowered to triple-'C'-plus from single-B-minus. Ratings placed on CreditWatch
with negative implications.
Newmont Mining Co.: Triple-'B'-plus corporate credit rating placed on CreditWatch with negative
implications. Newmont Gold Co.: Triple-'B'-plus corporate credit, equipment trust certificates, and senior
unsecured debt ratings placed on CreditWatch with negative implications. Santa Fe Pacific Gold Corp.:
Triple-'B'-plus senior unsecured debt rating placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.
Homestake Mining Co.: Triple-'B' corporate credit and triple-'B'-minus subordinated debt ratings placed on
CreditWatch with negative implications.
Battle Mountain Gold Co.: Double-'B' corporate credit and bank loan ratings, and single-'B'-plus preferred
stock rating placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.: Single-'B'-plus corporate credit rating and single-'B'-plus senior unsecured debt
rating placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.
Placer Dome, Inc.: Triple-'B' corporate credit and senior unsecured debt ratings, triple-'B'-minus preferred
stock rating, and 'A-2' commercial paper rating affirmed. Outlook revised to negative from stable.
Amax Gold, Inc.: Double-'B' corporate credit rating and single-'B' preferred stock rating affirmed. Outlook
revised to negative from stable.

Gold prices have deteriorated precipitously through 1997, falling to a 12 1/2-year low of below $300/oz last
week. The price weakness has been driven primarily by central bank actions and a low inflationary environment, as
well as the recent turmoil in Asian markets. Although considerable uncertainty exists regarding the direction of gold
prices, the recent weakness could be prolonged and hence, continue to adversely impact the credit quality of the
above companies. Standard & Poor's expects to conclude its review of the company's placed on CreditWatch
within the next two to three months.

Standard & Poor's ratings and outlooks on the following companies were not affected, for various reasons as
stated below:

Barrick Gold Corp. ( single-'A' corporate credit rating, stable outlook ) , given its low cost structure,
significant hedge position, and substantial financial flexibility, including a large cash position.
Normandy Mining Ltd. ( triple-'B'-minus corporate credit rating, stable outlook ) , given its significant hedge
position.
Hecla Mining Co. ( single-'B'-plus corporate credit rating, stable outlook ) , as its product diversification
affords some protection against gold price volatility, and its financial flexibility is expected to remain
consistent with its current rating.
Coeur D'Alene Mines Co. ( single-'B' corporate credit rating, negative outlook ) , given its product diversity.
Although lower gold prices could well further hinder assumed improvement in its financial performance, its
negative outlook already underscores the challenges it faces. -- CreditWire

SOURCE: Standard & Poor's CreditWir

TO all;
Elliott wave theorist indicated we have entered a bear market.
Anyone follow EWT? Concerns? Comments?

Yep! ( grin )

To: All
Barron's, Dec 8, 1997

Dear Alan Abelson has solved the mystery!
"Pure and simple, America's new currency is stocks.
Consider: We take our pay ( the part that really counts ) in stock.
We measure our wealth in stock ( strip Bill Gates and Warren Buffett of their share holdings and what you have is just another struggling computer nerd and a guy in Nebraska who scratches out a living writing amusing annual reports ) . We support charitable good works, renowned universities and othr most worthy institutions by donating stock."

20 more dollars down and I am finally thinking of turning bullish
on gold.

"The huge central bank selling this year has not been disclosed," says Frank Veneroso,

gold analyst and advisor, "and it is being done with no regard to market stability. It is

occurring with a ferocity that is more characteristic of mad dogs than central bankers.

Clearly these guys don't like the stuff." Veneroso charges that the Dutch, and to a

lesser extent the Belgians, continue to sell gold secretly in spite of promises not to. In

doing so they broke ranks with Britain and France. "I could not believe that they were

in there pounding the living daylights out of the market given the fact that they're all

going to join together in the EMU. Never has a central bank sale been conducted this

way."

http://www.talks.com/portfolio.html

There hs been much discussion on this forum about how low gold might go. Equally important, however, is how long it will remain in the dumps once the bottom is in.

My take is that we near bottom, but will be basing in the $270=$300 range for many months. This will force a drastic restrucuring of the mining industry. And when gold finally does break above $300 again 12-18 months from now, the gains in the surviving gold miners will stagger the imagination.

Puzzle for everyone. In the 'The Great Reckoning' book, name one
discovery by man which forever changed the future?

Re: RYO

Risk/rewards seem attractive at these prices ( I wouldn't mortgage my house though ) buy maybe some play money.

Do you have any new news on their financing? Will they or won't they get the cash needed ( 40mill ) req'd to bring Kewmess on stream......

Could earn easily 30 to 50% if gold goes over 300 within the next couple of months.

I believe 'shorts' ( 64,000 ) net positions according to the latest COT will cover before end of Feb. I just can't see risk/reward favoring them at these prices and EMU announcement pending within the next 5 months.

what do you feel the bottom is for RYO?

Any other suggestions?

TO wert ( Re: 10:23 post )
No more than $310 for CB's? Your retirement fund sucks big time ( au&ag ) .
Better start working the streets.

I did a full read of the post at 16:26 written by several legal scholars. They say because Presidential Executive Orders are done under the War Powers Act of 1917, amended in 1933, the constitutional challenge fails in all cases. We are legally still in a "National Emergency" declared in 1933 until this or a future president declares it over.

My broker, ( a V.P. ) called RYO and was told that financing was to be finalized next week, with no problems.

Thanks.

TO nomercy;
I dont know what you mean by 'Could earn easily 30 to 50% if gold goes over 300 within the next couple of months.'
I thought RYO was fully hedged for many years to come by chicken
leg Miss PIGGY? In other words, price of gold is irrelevent at the moment @ RYO. I cannot argue concerning the short position you mentioned ( misplaced my short sheet report ) , however the RYO 'short' numbers are higher than that ( from my short memory ) .

Price of RYO in the future?. $1.00

TO Digdeep;
Brokers have so much info. ( called information overload ) , they
dont know if they're coming or going?. Brokers live by commission.
Brokers DONT have your interest at heart. Only theirs.

Donald, I guess you missed "My fellow Americans" speach of Date: Sat Nov 22 1997 17:03
I just copy,


My fellow Americans..
.
( I hope you forgive me- being a salty antipodean - it's just that sometimes aurator sees himself on a hoss, with a Montana backdrop, always wanted to say that, once. Yee haa )

but I done gone found something about Gold, about Freedom, about We
the People- ( No--You the enemy - Read This ) the Fed Res Bud -- and
State of Emergency apparently in existence without your knowledge.
THE WAR & EMERGENCY POWERS REPORT go here
http://afcomm.com/afc/report.html
and do a search for bullion -- to whet your patriotic appetites
Any comments and thoughts

aurorattinghereandrattingthereheratseverywherethataurorator

Thanks for your input.

RYO short position as at November 30 was over 2 million & I believe RYO is only hedged till Dec '97 .

Mikey when I see a stock lose 40% of its value over a week span on a drop of $15.00 gold ( 302 to $287 ) and over fears of inadequate financing ( Digdeep broker says its finalized ) the potential is there for a rebound after the announcement ( financing ) and tax loss season ending ( couple of weeks )

Could rebound.

Your prediction can materialize if gold stays around these levels or below for at an extended period of time.

Risks of the game.

Go to yahoo, go to stock quotes, go to enter RYO go to news, go to sec filings Q-10 scroll down to outlook, you will see gold hedged for 1997 but not thereafter.

To nomercy;
Good luck with RYO however, ABX & BGO are better buys short term,
long term, any term.

Not hedged after 97 where do you get the two million short on 11/30/97.
They are short out of the money options is this what you speak of. Financing looks sure based on current commitment. If mine does as expected and or gold rises the stock is a bargain here.

Agree on ABX and BGO.

RYO 'short' position = TSE exchange report as at November 28.

I spoke with investment relations at RYO and it was stated that financing was not a concern to mgmt. The biggest concern to me is 1 ) no Kemess significant delay and that it perform at least close to what is expected. Of course commodity price changes could have a big impact ie lower then tighter margins rise above 330 then no problem as other properties become profitable.

TO nomercy & Digdeep;
RYO is hedged til year 2001.
http://www.royal-oak-mines.com/96ar/96arnt.html

I my post last night I recalled the pre-announced IMF Gold Sales of the 70's, and am not discounting in any way the real probability of upcoming IMF Gold Sales to" Stabilize the monetary confidence in Asia",I am of the view that THEY have determined ,the psychological impact of covert CB's Gold Sales post annouced to be much greater than pre announcing them.Witness the Gold markerts to date they have been left bewildered.
You all remember that a few months after the said IMF Gold Sales in the 70"s Gold took off, the markets knew when and how much to be sold,
unlike the situation today when all are left wondering which bank is next
and how much.

Look for a intense PR campaign a.s.a. Gold jumps using the cloud ( I mean that since it will prove to be all smoke, the Swiss will vote not to sell
Gold but to give SF's ) of the so called 1400 tons of Swiss Gold to be sold to depress the Gold market

and

Look for an additional intensive PR campaign to try for armtwist the
Europeans to give ok to IMF to sell gold ( thus far they have refused ) . and
or EU Gold. This will involve upcoming confrences etc.. on real estate art etc...using victims of the Nazi's.

oris- I do not hold RYO.

I also wish to confirm that I am, just as every one and every thing on this
planet earth, from deep interstellar space, unlike the rumors I've heard
that a certain Kitcoite is from another dimensiion, other than our space and time.

.

ABX has the 2nd largest short position on the TSE, over 11 million shares. RYO is over 2 million. Im getting tempted to buy here, but as I believe Gold is not ready yet to turn around, I will wait for lower prices.
There is incredible bearishness out there, and these stocks will continue to follow the price of Gold very closely.
Turnaround in January / February ???

The printing press?

TO MoReGoLd;
Funny how ABX stock price going down ( abx hedging also ) .
Revenues are locked in and price continues dipping.
Talk about market psychology or what?. Wait some more, gold
has not found bottom yet. Barrick's stock price is wired
directly in the price of bullion.

USA TODAY ( Dec. 4 ) -
For the latest 13 weeks, M2 averaged $3,974.7 billion, a 6.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate of gain from the previous 13 weeks. M3 averaged $5,243.5 billion, up 10.3%. Both measures of money supply will give impetus to rising inflation.

The Hong Kong Oracle, Milhouse, has always maintained there is a positive correlation between the trends of money supply ( M3 ) and the price of gold. In light of M3s accelerating growth rate in recent months - the highest increase in over a decade, and nearly DOUBLE the Feds upper range guideline - it is well worth a re-study of Milhouses analysis, US MONEY SUPPLY AND THE DEMAND FOR GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831f.html

The Peruvian Incas called Silver "Lagrimas de la Luna." Well, since August this year they have been tears of JOY, as Silver Futures are UP 23% since the DOW high in mid-August, all while the shiny yellow continued to dribble downwards. Just today, Silver Futures closed UP 12.5 cents ( +2.4% ) . And while the XAU relentlessly ground downwards, silver stocks have indeed been shinny examples of appreciation.

Rothschilds, Soros & RJ CANNOT BE WRONG

We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the Poor Mans Gold -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year Goldbugs Weekly Comment.

In Cormiers report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! -posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Lets capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%
Silver Standard ( SSO ) ...............UP 57%
International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%
First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) ..........UP 86%
United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%
Clifton Mining ( CFB ) ................Down 4%

Thats an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! - the current daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug613.html

Has not RYO covered all of its hedges to get cash for KEMESS, Does any RYO have a mine with a cash cost less than 300 and if not, can it continue to operate the mines with a negative cash flow - what will be the psychological market effect if the mines are closed, and can RYO afford the closure and maintenance costs - will KEMESS be completed on time w/o cost overruns even if RYO obtains additional financing and if so, will it operate immediately without glitches which usually plaque new mines - will Kemess provide sufficient cash flow if gold and/or copper drop further in price to pay all RYO debt and operating expenses - and if not, what will happen to the price.

To tolerant1;
Where have you been? I thought you finally had given up on Gold.
Are you asking me or telling me? Did you read the book?

JTF, Dave in CO: I consumed the book in two nights. There was nothing new to me, but it certainly had a lot of the supporting research that I hadn't heard before.
JTF- how did you hear that there was an unedited version?
Dave in CO- The free republic piece you posted is in the book. Am I correct that your comment yesterday about conspiracies was sarcastic?

I been claiming that these criminal acts would bring Clinton down since 1993, and I'm less optimistic than ever. When you have Gingrich publicly declare that Foster was murdered, and that he'd get to the bottom of it, only to have nothing happen, you have to conclude that the powers that be don't want this stuff out.

Whatever the short-term fallout, it won't be worse than the long-term cost of losing our rule of law as we decline into banana republic status, which is what will happen if nothing is done.

What would happen to all these gold short positions, if we, the silly owners, of gold stocks decided ( for no particlular reason ) to hold our stocks rather than having our brokers hold them? Would that action have any impact of the shorts ( did they borrow our shares from our brokers?? ) ? Sometimes I think the only people that own gold stocks visit this bb. If the viewers of this bb are significant in the world of gold stocks ( high numbers of folks with small amounts can add up ) , then maybe, just maybe it sould have an impact???

Just curious.

These companies are basically a leverage play on the Gold price. The current market is valuing their in ground reserves and not so much their day to day profits ( as long as they are solvent ) .
The large in ground reserves are not very appealing at these levels.
I believe if the price of Gold can't stage a decent rally in the next few months, some of these companies can still be cut in half.
The prices seem cheap at these levels, but why buy them now
if you can pick them up much cheaper.
Bullion seems a much less risky bet.

I am more bullish than ever on all the metals. And I was asking more than telling in my last post. I read the book a while ago. It seemed like a logical response. Do you know?

I think for the large cap Gold stocks, there are sufficient shares held by mutual funds to lend to the shorts. They would probably find a way to lend them and make a buck out of it somehow.

FOCUS-IMF loans arrive as more defaults hit Seoul

By Yoo Choon-sik

SEOUL, Dec 6 ( Reuters ) - More than 1,000 protesters took to the streets of Seoul on Saturday demanding the government take steps to prevent massive job losses they say will occur under the tough terms of an IMF economic bailout package.

The protests came as South Korea received the first payment of the record-breaking $57 billion rescue package and another of the country's huge conglomerates sought court protection from creditors.

Analysts have predicted a chain of bankruptcies would be one of the main side-effects accompanying the biggest ever bailout package arranged by the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) .

More than 1,000 protesters, including union leaders, braved chilly, rainy early winter weather to march along a street in central Seoul, demanding that family-controlled industrial conglomerates, or ``chaebol,'' be dismantled and the government take steps to prevent huge job losses they argue would happened under the IMF programme.

Nearly as many riot policemen were deployed for any violence but the rally ended without major clashes.

The central Bank of Korea on Saturday said it had received $5.22 billion in rescue funds pledged by the IMF with another $344 million due to flow in on Monday.

A bank official said the bank planned to put part of the money in the Seoul interbank market to supply enough dollars for companies to settle import deals.

The rest of the money will be supplied to commercial banks to help them meet imminent, short-term debt obligations, said the official, who asked not to be identified.

A second payment of $3.6 billion will be available from December 18, after the first review of a comprehensive economic reform programme underpinning the loan, the IMF said.

If Seoul meets the tough terms of the reform programme, another payment would be made from January 8, bringing the total payments in the first 35 days to well over $10 billion.

South Korea on Wednesday agreed to the $55 billion package, including $21 billion directly from the IMF, to overcome its worst financial crisis in decades.

The amount has since grown to more than $57 billion after more countries joined in the plan.

But the first loan payment was overshadowed on the stock market by news South Korea's 12th largest chaebol had applied to the court to protect some of its subsidiaries from creditors.

The Halla Group said it has applied or plans to apply for special court protection against creditors or court receivership for six of its 18 units, including three core subsidiaries.

The companies are Halla Engineering and Construction Co, Halla Cement Manufacturing Corp, Halla Engineering and Heavy Industry Co, Halla Merchant Marine Co, Halla Pulp and Paper Co and Mando Machinery Corp.

The Korea Exchange Bank, one of Halla's biggest creditors, said the first five units had defaulted on an unspecified amount of debt. State Korean Broadcasting System reported they had defaulted on 221.1 billion worth of promissory notes.

The group had 6.34 trillion won ( $5.2 billion ) of debts at the end of 1996, 19.9 times its shareholders' equity of 319.2 billion won, data at the Korean Federation of Banks showed.

Earlier on Saturday the Korea Stock Exchange suspended trading in shares of the group's four listed units, including Halla Climate Control Corp, citing rumours that the companies had defaulted on debt payments.

The troubles, combined with concerns over debt repayments by Kyung Nam Wool Textile Co and Yungjin Pharmacy Co, had a dramatic effect on the stock market, which had posted big gains in the two days following the IMF deal.

The composite stock price index at one point plunged 3.8 percent, or 16.42 points, to 417.70 in the morning before rebounding. It closed 1.61 points higher at 435.73.

Later in the day Kyung Nam notified the stock market that it settled the payments, while Yungjin said it defaulted on payments of 6.1 billion worth of promissory notes.

The latest series of debt defaults, sparked most recently by Friday's debt default of Coryo Securities Corp, sent the country's benchmark bond yields skyrocketing on Saturday.

The yields on three-year corporate bonds jumped 76 basis points to close Saturday's half-day session at 19.95 percent as investors fleed the market for fear of further yield rises.

South Korea, which has averaged 8.6 percent annual economic growth for the past three decades, agreed to cut the growth to about three percent next year, potentially throwing an army of people out of work.

South Korea turned reluctantly to the IMF for help last month as financial institutions were buckling under a mountain of bad debt caused by a slew of corporate bankruptcies. Its currency was plunging, partly due to the spillover effect of crises elsewhere in Asia.

I know you are here, never had doubts about it, and so it true
for John Disney, who appears to be an interesting correspondent
with a very good knowledge of the very good English and ability
to present some of his ideas in a very artistic manner. I enjoy
his remarks....

Will be in touch with you.. Must go now.

Very truly yours...

As with many gold companies the low price is a problem. Apparently the company can selectively mine its remaining mines at close to break even. If Kemess has glitches that may be a problem but at least at that time it will be operating and will have an operating value that can be ascertained. I think the 1.00 value is practically factoring in bankruptcy since in liquidation based on assets , especially an operable but promising Kemess the stk would fetch a buck to shareholdres after the debt was paid. Dont forget their large holdings in other potentially low cost projects like Kemess North, Matachwan, Red mountain, and Their stake in Asia Minerals and other assets. In liquidation the stock should be worth at least a buck and a half to two for shareholders. The Kemess delay is a risk but remember at that time when it is operating and if the quality is as good as has been predicted based on all the testing and initial samples during development then it is worth alot ie additional money will come. Of course a twenty or thirty dollar rally in gold would solve alot of problems.

Just came back from a little visit with my girlfriend to the Commack Jewelry Exchange on Jericho Turnpke. The place was *packed*; people were shelling out the little green pieces of paper for gold! gold! gold!

With Kemess complete and with its other projects and assets I think RYO would try to merge into a larger Gold company if making it on their own looked too difficult. Kemess would make them fairly attractive to others.

I like the way your mind works ( re: holding stocks and the
survey of coin shops to ascertain how much is being sold )

We don't realize how much power we really have, because it
is all too often fragmented...the exchange of information
and ideas on this board should give us some small indication
of what mountains we might move, given a worthy cause...

Saddam's PR agency is at it again...no oil, until food for
children arrives more quickly, and asking Russia to 'hlep'
Will it fly?

Saturday December 6 7:27 AM EST
Iraq: No Oil to Flow Unless Food Comes Quicker

TO tolerant1;
Waiting for more guesses from the crowd. I am looking for
something else ( which changed the course of history ) .

"Not to Hedge is to Speculate" Hmmmm...


LBMA chairman Alan Baker said: "Gold hedging is a topical issue, as it
affects the price of gold and impacts on gold producers' share prices. The debate was of great value in bringing some of the arguments for and
against the practice into the public arena. The dividing line between
hedging and speculation is a thin one. But not to hedge is to speculate."

http://www.woza.co.za/lbma.htm


RYO?


Q: What do you get if you cross a prospector and a stock broker
A: a broke prospect.


Not To Swim is to fly


Not to think is to believe

Kinda makes you feel good to know that there are alot of people out there that want gold. The silent minority.

ROR We are generally in accord, but I do not see how RYO can selectively mine and maintain a close to break even if gold drops lower. What is disturbing is that RYO has apparently no plan in place if gold does drop lower. However, unless gold drops below 250, the RYO assets would seemingly be worth $0.50 and in addition, after investing the money it has, the BC government would seemingly be compelled to assist in ensuring the mine is in operation

Emailed Jim Rogers about his gold position and cited all the facts and
figures about gold. He didn't refute any of the facts. His argument against gold goes like this: He cited an estimate by the Gold Trade
Association that gold output would rise 25% by the year 2000. Frankly,
he's been using this estimate for a long time and it certainly precedes
the recent price weakness. He also said that commodities have to sell
for long periods of time at below cost before starting new bull markets and lastly we need a central bank selling panic before a new bull market can start.

It seems to me that gold has been selling under production cost for a long period of time for a significant portion of the industry.

Frankly, I don't think he knows that much about gold. Although he may be
right about that selling panic. I think the key is the dollar. If it
falls apart safe haven buying will come in and absorb any and all central
bank dumping from sales or gold loans just as it did in the 1970's when
we had regular IMF sales and U.S. sales.

Why dont they take a million or so and buy some puts. Thats a plan which will generate cash flow if prices drop further. Clearly we are a panic situation.

The question is not a selling panic but whether we have had a borrowing panic which has caused the selling panic? Either selling or borrowing the CB gold is gone same result. There will never be an outright selling panic as CBs know they need some gold and they can never really trust each other. A borrowing binge is ok because they make money and theoretically keep the gold. The fact they enter borrowing shows they really dont want to sell outright. I think most of their comments support this position. Have we had a Borrowing Panic. Remember this panic comes from the industry and not the CBs which are just facilitators. The ans lies in how hedged is the industry and how much more can it profitably hedge at these levels. And forget the massive no. of calls sold short.
Ans this and you ans J. Rodgers ques of whether we have had a selling panic.

I predict what we shall see is the continued after the fact annoucements that various banks have ( past tense ) sold gold for some time to come.

The real story is....they will be forced to make press releases stating such because the players that they have "leased gold " to in the past will have no way on earth to return it or replace it without causing a big spike in the market/spot price of gold.

Therefore the statement of a previous sale of huge amounts will do two things:

!. It will further pressure the spot price down.
2. It will buy some time for the CB to attempt to buy back a portion of what they have been "forced " to recognize as a sale after the fact.... thus hoping to build back up their gold reserves before the cat is out of the bag.

This may be what we have already been seeing with such countries as Australia. Why else would they help to drive the price of gold down....and cripple their mining economy ...as well as the general economy of their nation.

Bon Jour Aurator: Take a look at this site on the same subject http://www.btimes.co.za/97/0223/news/news2.htm

Just making sure you do not think you have a monopoly on the web sites.: )

Everything is not necessarily what it seems to be.

ROR: Question I asked myself. Peggy, who is reportedly an expert on hedging, has not seen fit to do this for some reason. What is disturbing is that she appears to be speculating on the price of gold and copper and thereby the company's future by not doing so.

I contend that gold will follow the spike up of the money supply by six to nineteen months...it is just" like money in the bank" ( or is that circulation ) ...I hope...IMHO

Does any one out there have some old M3 growth charts they would care to superimpose over the price of gold ?

Even if you look at the latest data just from 11/95 to present I think a blind man could see the relationship.

...FWIW, RYO will bounce back as it has done before.Great trading
stock and lots of liquidity.Seasonal strength end of December January.
Cyclical bottom Monday or Tuesday for gold,expect gold to make an intermediate cycle bottom at the end of April,wouldn't be surprised
of a 250 and a 50 xau.

That is the first logical argument I have heard for these "past" sales announcements. If true maybe CBs are over their heads as there must have been a bunch of borrowing. Maybe the problem with the gold stocks will be that they are derivatively hedged to the max and that if the price explodes and the forward market breaks down and they cant honor their contracts. Just a thought. It would be ironic though. The boys in the industry have to be pretty desparate and bearish given the pounding they have taken and that selling what you dont yet have is the only way to survive and a badge of honor in the industry. Talk about yer derivitive problem. If the CBs are over loaned ( we can never know cause loaned gold is counted as theirs even though now it may be diluted jewelry ) and thus makng their announcements of old gold sales then this may be a possibility. Ques" What happens if you are short calls and the derivitive market and forward mkt break down in an explosive panic rise ie CBs realize they cant get their gold back?

Peggy said gold down until end of 97 then a rise. Hence no spot forwards after Dec. She said this in March. Not Bad. She said she wanted minimum hedging in 98 when she thinks gold will rise. Though they are short about 500k of out of the money calls which according to the co is reaping 25 bucks an ounce to the co.

So much gold has been sold by central banks and by hedge funds expecting further declines that the outstanding short position equals "more than two years of mine production," observes Kjeld Thygesen.

"painful is not the word," grimaces Thygesen. "this is the worst month I can remember." Based on cash-flow valuation for some companies, he suspects that some miners are discounting a $275-an-ounce gold price.

Old Gold: regarding CB's $310 post ...... IMHO, however take a look at US moneysupply fig's vs the rest of CB's that belong to the worlds country clubs. Also 2% on lease gold allows the short-players to do their thing.
Mikey: Just got in from working the streets and I'm still still looking for the towel.... must go now as grandad's needed to admire the Christmas tree.
Private I ...Alice in Wonderland indeed!....regards

ROR: Thanks for the input. There is a lot of risk in the Company, but IMO the risk/reward is favorable.

Skylark: Thanks for the link.

CRYSTAL BALL: Jehrico Turnpike eh? Commack eh? A fellow Long Islander no doubt. Now I know how it feels to live on Cape Breton!

I can only assume this is what we are seeing and **it may hit the fan any time now. I am not an analyst...but the one I use collects $1-2 million per year in compensation depending upon amount under management.

I just hope he is correct and I am not on the wrong side of this market when it breaks out.

The number they are stating as loaned forward goes to 7 years sold.

Date: Sat Dec 06 1997 19:11
SDRer__A ( A. Goose, laying golden eggs... ) ID#287280:

Thanks. Haven't heard yet about either. I just plant seeds and hope for the best.

I think trouble is brewing for the coming week. Japan and S. Korea are in BIG trouble and nowadays billions are not real money. The trades on forex, ... put these numbers to shame.

I bet currency raids will be made on the far east this coming week.

IMHO

Presumably it would take about a 1000 tonnes of gold just to maintain stability in the market given the supply deficit. Ques. How much gold was loaned out to drive gold prices down 78 dollars since february given the commodities price elasticity. 10000 tonnes perhaps. Cbs only have 30000 tonnes. Remember they had to greatly appreciate their lending given the price elasticity to achieve this result. 97 was a record year for gold demand/ IMO some serious lending must of happened in 97 forget 96 to achieve this result. Now the belated open annoucements make sense. Maybe the CBs dont have that much gold left. Many miners let alone specs are fully hedged out several years. Of course loans dont decrease reported reserves as they will eventually be repaid?

Bolivia announces 25 percent increase in fuel prices

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/apbreak.htm

Hedging by RYO was great they just rolled their 98 99 and 00 hedges into this year so that they would recognize the gain now and be freed up later except as I said they have effectively shorted out of the money calls throughout 98 to collect 25 bucks per oz in premium. Peg is bullish on gold for 98 so she rolled the spot deferreds all into 97. Though still somewhat hedged through the calls. Re your comment: What gold stock isnt a bet on the price of gold? Her hedging has brought the company to the verge of being a low cost producer from a prohibitively high cost producer. She has done as good a job as anyone could. We will se if she is right on her 98 gold up move as her trepidation about gold until the end of 97. Time will tell.

until next time

FT SURVEY, Private Banking
DERIVATIVES: Curiosity turns into Profits
Samer Iskandar
Derivatives have become omnipresent in everyday financial life

Derivatives, once the domain of highly-specialized technical analysts, have gradually filtered through to almost every layer of banking.
...In the past few years...growing curiosity from individuals. And in spite of some bad publicity, such as the Barings debacle in 1995, the products that were once described as exotic or obscure finally entered the mainstream.

But the direct transactions by private investors are a relatively new phenomenon.

CHASE MANHATTAN, THE US BANK, SAYS THE USE OF DERIVATIVES BY ITS PRIVATE BANKING CLIENTS HAS ROUGHLY DOUBLED EVERY YEAR IN THE PAST THREE YEARS. Although this includes passive investment in funds managed by the bank, most clients nonetheless like to be involved in the decision-making process---60% in Europe and ALMOST 75% IN ASIA. ( Caps SDRer ) .

The market changed dramatically as yields fell, says Bernard Armstrong, vice-president investment advisory services at Chase Private Bank. CLIENTS ARE NOW LOOKING FOR HIGHER YIELDS. They also want more diversity.

Is this hedging? Or speculation?
....the rocket scientists have now been joined by the Beardstown Ladies!
The RS working for the year-end bonus, the BL's hunting for yield...
And in the act of playing the game, the rules will change
And you KNOW some of them MUST be in the Forex playroom...
and, YES, it will be an interrrrrresting week...
BBL

Old Gold, I really don't anticipate a long consolidation period. The means by which gold reached the current level ( and perhaps a bit lower ) does not argue for a settling period. The banks have loaned out far more gold to speculators than is prudent, as a consequence, there is a high
probability that gold could spike rapidly especially if speculators panic
for whatever reason -- thinking they may have to pay more than they sold their borrowed gold for. Marginal speculators could be in danger of default with central banks left holding the bag. Speculators have to realize that the risk/reward ration at this point is not favorable. But bullion is not the play here. It is mining stocks. This has to be a once in a life time opportunity to make a fortune. Some of the juniors with known reserves plus cash are at ridiculously low prices and will
explode within the next 12 months -- even if gold just goes to $350. A lot of those strictly exploration juniors are essentially bankrupt at this time. It's was trendy to invest in these and ride the hype a couple of years ago. That cycle is over. The good news: One doesn't have to do much DD to find good juniors with proven reserves and cash in the bank. I really don't think there has been a conspiracy by the central bankers to drive gold down; however, there may have to be some coordination to assure an orderly rise in the price of gold back to its equilibrium level -- which IMO is probably closer to $600 than the $400 area.

http://www.atlas-fdn.org

"May old acquaintance be fergot....Hey, Greasecan you foxy little fart come over here and give 'yo momma a little hug....HEY WAITER!!! Bring me another wheeskey with them gold flakes in it!"

Ahh...Ms. Lurk I believe you've had enough...I think I'll call you a cab.

Fer God's sakes Greenie...I'm in mourning...hell, can't you see I'm dyin'inside, baby!...What the hell's all over you chin? You kinda' look like a skinney Burl Ives!

I beg your pardon, madam! Oh, I'm sorry....I've got some of your wonderful banana pudding on my chin...how embarassing! You simply must give Andrea that recipe...and those vanilla wafers were so unusual...very crunchy! Very different, I must say.

Well, Greenie baby....what you say me and you
get us a little room upstairs and make a little pudd....

Whoooaaa! Ms. Lurk...I really must go! Good evening madam.

Hell, you ain't much of a catch yerself...HEY! WAITER! WHERE'S THAT DRINK? Viva...Viva Las Vegas...uh...uh...uh...you ain't nuthin' but a hound dog...uh...uh...uh.

Off to Christmas Party ( the company parties come early ) .

Seasons Greetings to ALL and may GOLD shine brightly for all of US through this season and beyond.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

ROR: I am told by RYO that they have no hedges on gold or copper as of this time.

Yes, my post yesterday on Arlington and OKC was a feeble attempt at sarcasm.
I always look forward to your posts as we seem to agree about the political scene. The only things I have to contribute here are a little knowledge of Klinton-gate scandals and Y2K which should have some effect on PM's, eventually.
Do you have any information on the semi-nude woman found dead ( the Vince Foster style autopsy said natural causes ) in her locked office in the Commerce Department in Nov., 1996? She worked for John Huang who worked for Ron Brown, 2 dead people and a future jailbird. This is a workgroup with a run of bad luck. Think about the odds.
Yesterday, I posted a site that has the only 2 ( two ) stories about this that appeared on the newswires. Do you know of any others?

The following is an excerpt from www.strategicinvestment.com I am a subscriber and find it to be very useful FWIW.

proof of a coverup

by James Dale Davidson

A Rosetta Stone?

The Foster death is a Rosetta Stone. Decipher it and you can understand the corrupt character of government in late 20th-century America. It is a system in which murder is a tool of convenience. I am convinced that Foster is not alone in meeting an untimely death in recent years. He is probably just one of 50 or more who have been murdered for various reasons during the Clinton Administration.

The least equivocal of these deaths is that of Jerry Parks, the private detective who provided security to the 1992 Clinton campaign headquarters, and also worked with Vincent Foster to compile a dossier of compromising information on Bill Clinton. Parks was shot dead on the streets of Little Rock on September 26, 1993. In spite of the fact that witnesses saw the assassins pump nine bullets into Park's car on the street, his murder remains unsolved.

Kathy Ferguson and her boyfriend Bill Sheldon became Foster-like "Arkancides" in the wake of the Paula Jones lawsuit on sexual harassment. As reported in Strategic Weekly Briefings, Danny Ferguson, Kathy's former husband, and Bill Clinton's codefendant in the Paula Jones case, received four anonymous death threats he believed originated with Bill Clinton. One caller, who Ferguson believes to have been a White House aide, asked, "Y'all don't want to become another Vince Foster, do you?" The other callers threatened that if was not "careful," he "would end up like Kathy," who was found shot to death on May 10, 1994.

Barbara Alice Wise worked in the Commerce Department with John Huang. What she knew about the Asian fund raising exploits will never be known. She was found dead at the age of 48 in her office on November 29, 1996. As frequently happens in the District of Columbia, the death of Ms. Wise has not been resolved.

Another untimely "suicide" victim was Wei Guioqiang, former Washington Bureau Chief of the official Chinese news agency, Xianhua. Wei also spent much time in Washington cavorting with John Huang. Our sources say he was the second-highest ranking Chinese intelligence officer involved in funneling money into Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign. When word got out ( from U.S. authorities? ) that Wei might be prepared to talk, he was whisked back to China, supposedly to receive an award. He went into a bathroom and was later found with a bullet in his head, executed, our sources say, by an officer of China's Ministry of State Security.

Also not doing any talking are Ron Brown and 34 others who died with him when his Air Force plane crashed into a mountain in Bosnia. The Brown crash was only the second Air Force crash in 50 years for which a "safety investigation" of the mishap was not undertaken. A less informative "accident investigation," was held. It predictably blamed the crash on "bad weather," and "pilot error," but evidence suggested that the two experienced pilots were flying with the wrong coordinates. Informed sources tell Strategic Investment that shortly before his death, Ron Brown had informed Bill Clinton that investigators had built a strong case against him, and he would be obliged to talk.

Dead in another mysterious plane accident on August 17, 1996, were Aldo F. "Al" Frascoia, Sr., of the Secret Service's Technical Security Division and eight Air Force crew members. They had taken off from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Al Frascioa was a "physical security specialist" with the Secret Service. His job included protecting the president against electronic surveillance. This meant that Frascoia knew more about the content of Bill Clinton's telephone and face-to-face communications than anyone else. At least, he did before he died. Strategic Weekly Briefings has reported extensively about the peculiar nature of this plane crash, and a false report indicating that the pilot had experienced trouble and was turning back when he crashed into the side of a mountain.

Monday - If you're short the Dec SnP at 987.00 keep your stop above the highs, if not try shorting at 989.50 with a stop above the highs. If stopped out look to reshort at 1014.00 or any hourly close below 969.00 with a stop above the previous hour's highs. Fri. I was short at 988 and covered at the close. Will try again Monday. XAU should rally for about a week. Then we'll see how the pullback develops.

Agreed; loaded up on jrs with both good exploration prospects, seasoned management and well financed. However I have had lots of second thoughts over the last 6 to 8 months with the steady errosion of Au price and resultant market caps. Timing really poor! I've got lots of them in the in the punt category; any thoughts on the good ones from your view? I'm interested in the recent discussion regarding RYO and Kemess, when we looked at it -- the economics didn't work at$403.00 if my memory is correct, I have always been amased that Miss Peggy would get involved in this one. Strip ratios ,dilution,metalurgy, etc. Also, look at the companys track record in the Maritimes. However, earlier post on her abilities to hedge are correct maybe she knows something we don't.....regards P.S. The Christmas looks great! Christmas comes earily in the Rockies. Fresh snow today- looks great- now if we can just get thru next week.

Get off the irrelevant Clintons! You show them way too much respect as they are just good politicians who mean to do well but the means to the end dont look so good. Concentrate on NEWT and LOTT and GEPHARDT.

Thanks much for the information from Strategic Investment. I subscribed a couple of years ago but let it lapse when my gold stocks started to drop. You're right, the political information alone is worth the price.

Have you seen www.freerepublic.com especially the Whitewater section? A lot of information hits there long before it's seen elsewhere; e.g., today there was a story about the Air Force gag order placed on the crash investigator, a forensic pathologist, who said that Ron Brown's body should be autopsied again because of a possible gunshot wound to the head. After registering ( much like here ) you can add comments after each article. It makes for some lively and informative discussions.

Also, I learned this A.M. that M. Larry Lawrence was attending a Chicago junior college in 1945 at the time he claimed to be a war hero.

I appreciate your posts. Dave

Wert, I have never felt comfortable giving investment advice. However, I
have been buying Miramar ( T.MAE ) , Euro Nevada ( T.EN ) , Franco Nevada ( T.Fn ) , Metallica ( T.MR ) , Trillion ( T.TLQ ) . I have owned Pan American Silver for years and will continue to hold/buy. It's a solid company and
if this "squeeze" is for real will be a star performer. All of these are
worth researching.

Yes I have been to the site. There sure is a great deal of information all over the web about the Clintons. If one percent is true it would be really sad for this country.

Thanks for the advise; I'm not big on others tips because of vested interests etc. However like you I believe in DD. T.Fn is good and has been in the port. for years and will stay there I'm not sure about T.En as its on the punt list. Pan AM ag ? need to do some research.... A couple of OZ plays look good- try Normandy; STD POORS recently kept their ratings also MNP-v has a PNG play next to Placers Porgera site--it looks interesting also has Ag kicker but is still highly speculative.. Good luck as these are difficult but challenging times to be in PM's...regards

P.S. forgot to mention AXU if no movement next week its history...regards

http://www.euromoney.com/index.html
Why the IMF is wrong
The world is facing its worst economic crisis since the 1930s and no-one has a solution to the problems, least of all the IMF.

Much faith is being placed in the IMF to come up with both funding and policies to fix things. After all, the Bretton Woods institutions were created in the aftermath of the 1930s crisis to ensure there could never be a repeat performance.

But as one emerging market after another goes under, it's clear the IMF is way out of its depth. Unless there is a complete and immediate rethink, the 1997 crisis will be remembered as the one the IMF presided over rather than cured.

The problem is that the IMF has been treating one kind of illness for so long it now has a single remedy. Usually called in to deal with countries living beyond their means  characterized by budget deficits, large imports of luxury goods, inflation and easy credit  the IMF's usual prescription is austerity. Monetary and fiscal policies must be tightened to put the house back in order. A policy-induced recession works fine as it slashes consumer spending and imports.

The IMF has delivered this medicine for so long that many governments, and especially central banks, now instinctively respond to trouble by putting on the brakes.

In dealing with the Mexico crisis in early 1995, the IMF experienced its finest hour. With strong US support it put together a $50 billion package to restore confidence and helped Mexico recover from the effects of excessive monetary expansion that had sucked in imports.

The mistake is in treating Asia in the same way as Mexico. Asia's troubles are not the result of too much consumption but of too much production. The region is noted for its prudent spending policies and Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia have all been running budget surpluses. Inflation is low and foreign exchange reserves, until they were blown on futile currency support operations, were high.

But savings and investments rates were way too high. Asian countries have been investing around 30% of GDP a year, with Thailand boasting a massive 40%, way above any calculation based on depreciation, the need to equip new workers and technological improvements. This has created huge overcapacity and excessive production which in the absence of strong domestic markets has been dumped on world markets, causing export prices to fall.

To make matters worse a lot of investment has been financed by cheap foreign loans borrowed by the private sector without being hedged. Now the currencies have cracked the repayment of this debt is in doubt and banks' balance sheets are ruined. The funds that have gone into property speculation and prestige projects are the most supect of all.

Responding to this crisis with the IMF's classic belt-tightening measures will make the situation even worse. This will throw countries into a downward spiral of less demand, less corporate sales, less ability to pay back, and more bankruptcies. Unlike Mexico, Asia doesn't have a friendly neighbour such as the US to pull it out of recession. With the Cold War over, the US feels less obliged towards the region while Japan, Asia's natural partner, is either too sick or uncaring to bother. China would dearly love the role but doesn't have the economic might.

To recover, Asia will have to run expansionary fiscal policies using fiscal policy to stabilize the economy. The region's banks do need fixing and the argument for a credit squeeze that brings them down quickly is valid. But the situation is really too serious for this approach. Setting aside moral-hazard arguments, governments will have to use public money to recapitalize banks and strip out problem loans.

As an institution that has strayed far from its Keynesian roots, the IMF finds such remedies difficult to stomach. But it is the nature of crises that off-the-shelf solutions don't work and that policymakers must be creative. The IMF's orthodoxy for dealing with troubled countries is woefully inadequate.

Even economists whose economic philosophy is broadly aligned with that of the IMF's don't believe the fund is in control. They criticize the IMF for not moving fast enough early on and for failing to quarantine Thailand to prevent the crisis spreading.

The IMF's philosophy of working at the invitation of sovereign governments is also under the microscope.

Governments naturally like to bail out their friends first and in Asia politicians and businessmen work hand in glove. In effect, public money is being used to rescue private follies. The hard-line approach is that governments either do exactly what the IMF tells them to or the country is allowed to default.

It may yet come to that. The IMF is not a bottomless pit and the imminent collapse of South Korea could severely stretch its resources. So far billions have been spent on currency support operations and bail-outs without the slightest sign of the crisis being checked.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ruddynews.com/rbrown.html
Questions Linger About Ron Brown Plane Crash

http://www.worth.com/articles/Z9801E01.html
98/01-Sanctionmania
We only do harm when we cut ourselves off from our neighbors

Ineffectual, warlike, expensive, masochistic, shortsighted, two-faced, hypocritical, dangerous, and just plain dumb. These are all adjectives that could be accurately applied to U.S. trade policy--especially when it comes to the sanctions that we now seem willing to deploy against our neighbors at the drop of a hat. Since 1993, the government has authorized more than 60 unilateral economic sanctions against other countries, according to a National Association of Manufacturers survey. Every single one has been a mistake--no matter how well intended. Trade sanctions cost business and investors huge sums of money. They always fail to achieve their purposes. Worst of all, they undermine our efforts to make the world a better place

Here's another important web research site that is on a par with the Clinton research you've been looking into, re Vince Foster, TWA 800, etc.

http://web3.asia1.com.sg/tnp/journey/into/alien/aliens.html

Trading a Day at a Time
These amateur investors need nerves of steel
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/chronicle/article.cgi?file=BU30664.DTL&directory=/chronicle/archive/1997/12/04
Hunched before computer screens, the dozen casually dressed free-lance speculators spend several hours a day trading in and out of Nasdaq stocks, trying to grind out a living by catching tiny, short-term price fluctuations.
But there is nothing stodgy or stagecoachy about the fast-moving, fast-growing phenomenon known as day trading. Day traders move in and out of stocks many times in a single day. Rarely do they hold a position longer than five minutes.
Burke says the average customer makes 10 to 40 trades per day,
However, a run-of-the-mill ``decent'' trader will average profits of just $300 to $500 a day, Burke says. And he admits that there is ``a tremendous potential for loss.''

For Oris - you say such nice things about me - Im not used

to being treated like this - Can I never free myself from

my debt to you.

Maybe this will help - Yes I like South African stocks

better than any others -I would not buy any yet except maybe

e-daggafontein ( a gold slimes reprocessor ) . They have costs of

230$/oz. But a short life at this gold price. They trade now

at 5.5 Rand and have paid div of 2 rand over the past year.

I think they will take over ergo from the anglos group. This will

extend their life greatly.

On the platinum front, I like Northams - high cost small platinum

producer. Almost closed down when plats below 300. Cost are

maybe 350$/oz. cost 2.2R/share - just started make dough at this

plat price. This is effectively a very good long platinum call.

No one will like me for this ( boo hoo ) but I think US mines like

ABX are stll overpriced at $16. If their management are so clever,

how come they almost succeeded in buying Bre-X ?? If their costs

are REALLY below 200 and they are brilliantly hedged at stellar

prices out to 2000, then how come they lost money last year with

gold averaging 325 ???

Sweet play and clear of gold risk - buy long calls on ASA at 20

( this fund now pretty well mirrors anglo-american ) and take long

puts on ABX at 16 plus . If gold starts to move up, dump the

abx puts.

Okay oris, am I free now ?? But PUleze dont say more nice things.

I Cant Take It. Insult me, abuse me. Call me Hitler in disguise, or

an Afrikaner racist, or an ANC red, or a big mouthed Aussie, or

a big mouthed Yank or Mr Insensitive or maybe just an idiot.

Okay Oris - NOW - LETS GO - make my day, buddy. and AVOID interplanetary travellers whatever you do .

Bill_G&nomercy, thanks for the money supply internet addresses!!!!

I follow M2 and M3 very closely. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, pure and simple. Nothing more, nothing less. Money is just another entity that the gov chooses to measure the value of everything else against.
As money supply goes up, the value of it is cheapened and it takes more of it to buy the same. There are many other factors, such as productivity that must be considered, but money supply is the key in predicting inflation.
As I stated here before, since the begining of our republic till 1913 ( creation of FRB ) the total,CUMMULATIVE inflation was 16% and the increase in money supply correlates extremely closely with this number. Since 1913 the cum inflation has now passed well over 1,000% . Again, the money supply expansion matches very closely this number.

Inflation has nothing to do with increasing oil and other comodity prices and labor rates. This BS is just propagated by the talking heads . It is simply too much money introduced into the system by undisciplined monetary authority. Gold is hated because it introduces discipline into the monetary system and the gov can not print money at will.

AST to Ax Up to 1,120 Jobs
Wobbling PC maker plans restructuring to staunch losses
Troubled personal computer maker AST Research said yesterday it will lay off as many as 1,120 workers in a reorganization aimed at revitalizing its moribund business and stemming humongous financial losses.

The move reflects the increasing pressure put on small and medium-sized PC makers by the big four -- Compaq, Dell, IBM and Hewlett-Packard. Those companies have been waging a price war that has sharply reduced profit margins throughout the industry.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/chronicle/article.cgi?file=BU48127.DTL&directory=/chronicle/archive/1997/12/04

New Twist In Case Against Microsoft
Justice Department lawyers head into federal court in Washington, D.C., tomorrow to argue that Microsoft Corp. has violated an antitrust agreement by forcing computer makers to accept its Internet browser as part of the Windows operating system.
``Using their OS leverage, Microsoft diverted millions of dollars of bounties out of the hands of computer makers to themselves,'' said a second ISP source, calling this ``a clear example of anti-competitive behavior.''
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/chronicle/article.cgi?file=BU31671.DTL&directory=/chronicle/archive/1997/12/04

http://www.dailystocks.com/

What exactly does your alien research have to do with gold prices?