Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

John Disney__A
(Sun Dec 07 1997 00:02 - ID#24140)
Ron Brown's Body
Ooooo - seems like working in Mr Brown's department could

shorten your life span pretty quick hey bob. But why would

somebody shot somebody else on a plane just before it crashed ??

Seems like overkill to me. Or was he shot after the plane

crashed ??

Are we seriously saying here that Clinton is guilty of murder??

That's serious - You can go to jail for that - I mean you can go

to jail for saying Clinton is guilty of murder.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 00:04 - ID#364147)
@ The End
Good night all~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Sun Dec 07 1997 00:05 - ID#239377)

(Sun Dec 07 1997 00:09 - ID#284255)
IMF aid not enough?
FOCUS-Indonesia's woes continue despite IMF aid
JAKARTA, Dec 7 ( Reuters ) - Indonesia's financial woes have intensified despite a huge aid package from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) five weeks ago, but analysts said on Sunday that much of the troubles were beyond the government's control.
``It's not just Jakarta alone, it depends on what happens to the rest of the region,''
``Everybody is just very negative about all emerging markets,''
``The problem with the IMF package is that it focuses on financial sector reform and does little to address private sector debt, which to my mind is the key factor dragging down confidence,''
``They are going about it the right way,'' he said. ``You cannot liquidate 50 banks in one go, that will send the whole economy into a tailspin. You've got to do it slowly.''
Indonesia liquidated 16 banks in early November as the starting point of its financial sector reform but much more needs to be done, analysts say. The country has some 240 banks, many of them illiquid and in deep financial trouble.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 00:13 - ID#411259)
..... From Friday .....

Rumored today:

Heard a story that "somebody" bought 10 million oz silver today and will take delivery next week. If this is true, this would put a terrific strain on warehouse supplies. Silver would rise to $6 + in the next couple weeks.

I run across a couple stories like this every week. Most, of course are BS, but even those tend have a kernel of truth buried within. It is here that one may find forecast if the eye is keen and properly prejudiced but, more often than not, what "sounds" untrue, is untrue, and verisimilitude is the only window of true intent.

In my army days, during the early Reagan years, I was trained as an interrogator and schooled in the fundamentals of believability. Any story, to be true, must have certain elements and a defined structure lest it collapse under its own weight. Once recognition of these elements are taught, a student would then find herself viewing all life through this discerning lens. An interrogator, at his core, is a restless soul who holds all to the barometer of truth and judges which is fit to remain held aloft. This, like the ancient Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times.", at first glance, appears a blessing, but often proves the reverse.

Noticeably lacking from the story of the rumored buyer of 10 million oz silver is the most important element of any piece of information: The source. Anything one may hear is meaningless without knowing the source. Also lacking are players in this warehouse grab.. last week it was George Soros at the helm, who is it this week? Republic? J. Arron? The architects are all absent.

Some mention has been made about my theory of "hidden" silver stocks. I have never made mention of any stocks of silver that are being hidden or camouflaged in any way. Rather, many million oz of silver have simply found their way into storage facilities the do not report holdings publicly. This is the "missing" silver of which I suspect exists in sufficient quantities to fulfill any and all demands of delivery. I see no short squeeze on silver.

This said, and unequivocally so, let me acknowledge that I could be entirely wrong about this and the next couple weeks will tell. If silver flirts with $6, I will be surprised and quite willing to sell it into a black hole from those lofty heights.


.. Groovy Goldbug Fellow ..

"I think the Major CB's of the free world have a buttload of gold"

May I quote you? You are very eloquent of late, and a continuing pleasure to read.


(Sun Dec 07 1997 00:15 - ID#284255)
S.Korea elections
S.Korea election focuses on blame for IMF bail-out
SEOUL, Dec 7 ( Reuters ) - South Korea's International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) bail-out package has overshadowed this month's presidential election, and the campaign has turned into a witch-hunt to assign blame for the country's economic crisis.
Rhee In-je, who left the ruling party to run independently, called the IMF deal a ``second national embarrassment,'' the first being colonisation by Japan in 1910. He compared Lee to Lee Wan-yong who had signed Korea's sovereignty away to Japan.
Rhee and Kim have also demanded that prosecutors probe and punish government officials responsible for the crisis.
The Chosun Ilbo over the weekend reported prosecutors were gathering information on former or current top economic policy-makers to find out whether any of the officials had committed wrongdoings or culpable misjudgment in the economic crisis.
Seoul agreed to slash growth in half to about three percent under the IMF programme, which is expected to result in massive unemployment.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 00:16 - ID#341214)
All, Dave in CO, Mikey
All: I would like to add my name to the list of those asking if anyone has an explanation for the sudden hike in the commercials short to long ratio for COMEX silver. It went to 5.89 to 1 short to long. Wow! Either the commercials think this is a correction in a bear market or they are trying like hell to keep the price down in a new bull market. Maybe we can answer the question if we can figure out who the commercials are. Anyone know? Are they both sellers ( miners ) and buyers ( Kodak ) of silver? I generally give a lot of weight to the COT numbers and if the commercials are more short than usual I go short too. For now, I'm ignoring this indicator. My TA ( see the TA there in fundaMETAList? ) agrees with those looking for the 6.00 to 8.00 range before a major correction but that correction, when it comes, is probably going to look like a rocket going the wrong way.

One note on silver delivery notices. Total notices is now around 7,500. IF ( I say IF because I don't know this as a fact ) this is the number of potential contracts on which delivery could be taken then it represents a potential draw down of 37,500,000 ozs. Arden provides us with the total silver ozs in COMEX warehouses ( currently about 125,000,000 ) but the "eligible" number is 68,538,626 ozs. The potential delivery of 37,500,000 ozs is one heck of a chunk of the eligible number.

Dave in CO: Hi Dave. Saw your last message a few days back. Thanks for the best wishes. You too. No offense meant but after driving through NE Nevada on my way to Idaho I'd definetely pick Idaho, especially if you like the great outdoors. Started my first Y2K project this week. It's for a large drug distribution company. I can remember asking them back in 1995 what they had going in that area. "It's being discussed," was all I got back. Now, with no time left, they are going to use the date windowing technique and will not disturb their data structures. On the surface it looks like it will work but I wonder what surprises I'm in for over the next few months. One big problem: Not all divisions of this conglomerate are using the same approach. Some are going with date windowing, some with date expansion in the data structures. Data exports and imports with other divisions and the parent company are going to be a nightmare. It's funny that the board has been discussing national emergencies the last few days. Last week I came to the conclusion that when the stuff hits the fan, his royal hiney is going to declare a national emergency and force programmers to work on government programs. Hope your resume data with your home address is not in too many databases. Like you, I feel Y2K will most definetly have an impact on PM prices. Perhaps in 98 but maybe not until 99. It's gonna be something. People really MUST get educated about this subject in depth and NOW.

Mikey: How about gunpowder, invented by the Chinese if my fickle memory serves me correctly.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 00:18 - ID#284255)
High rates in such a leveraged economy?
FUND VIEW-IMF implementation key to Korea success
HONG KONG, Dec 7 ( Reuters ) - Scepticism about South Korea's commitment to implement a record US$57 billion rescue package from the International Monetary Fund has tempered foreign investors' enthusiasm for the deal.
``There is an election coming up and there is not a consensus in the country that the IMF package is good for everyone. I think it's a very thin consensus at the top.''
High rates in such a leveraged economy -- external debt was estimated at US$151 billion -- would soon cause severe problems, forcing the government to give in to pressure on the currency.

John Disney__A
(Sun Dec 07 1997 00:30 - ID#24140)
steady - on the money trail
Steady - I agree every word you say on inflation - But missed

URL for data - god Im hopeless - can you refer me to post in


One exception. in period in mid 1980's when oil price dropped

from 30 bucks to under 10 in a year, there was a coincident drop

in PPI/CPI. This effect cleared out in about a year and precipitated

a gold runup practically on the anniversary of the oil price


At that time, I was following the CPI index numbers themselves

( from Barons ) rather than the rate of change of the index - which

I find pretty useless.

Problem is that now I cant find the CPI/PPI indexes ANYWHERE.

I think this info is now on a "need to know" basis, along with

Ron Brown and Vince Foster.

As an aside, we are truly in the information age. The secret

is to control, twist, distort, manipulate, and spin that

information to one's benefit. There's money in it.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 00:43 - ID#417317)
Charting Software
Sharefin and Panda:

Thank you for your response. Such comments from knowledgeable users are valuable. I will be getting one of those soon.

That was quite a dissertation on the financial problems of SE Asia. They will have to find a way to adapt their situation, with their strengths that you meantioned, to a difficult world of lightning fast financial movements. Getting in too deep with foreign loans with uncertain exchange rate control might have been too risky for them. But they will learn, they have to. I was interested in you comments on the Mexican bailout, since I live very close to them here in Arizona. That situation seemed to take everyone by surprise, but I think it was associated with the attempt of the PRI government to ensure a continuation of their power through their candidate, Zedillo. They just didn't want to make big financial changes at election time. The market then made it for them. I think Zedillo really is trying to beat down the corruption problem. Right now they seem to be moving in the right direction. You can see that in the relatively stable peso exchange rate, and the cetes ( short T-bill ) rate seems to be dropping.

I really appreciate your posts, much good stuff.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 00:43 - ID#284255)
John Disney
I really don't know much about the subject at all.
But the reason I posted it was because of the comments on avid.
They have talked alot about the subject for the last two days.
Plenty of interesting comments over there.
Plenty of speculation as well.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 00:44 - ID#239377)
@John Disney
Don't worry, no more nice treatment, just want
to thank you for your time and effort.

Your information is interesting and specific, and it is good
for my education.

I am still flirting with investing in RSA mining industry, mainly
because of some political aspects I need to understand a little bit

By the way, I think that South African chocolate is the best in the world, nothing else comes close. If you like vodka, my expert advice
would be to try SMIRNOFF with black&white label, also called MELLOW
VODKA - this is just in case you are in Russian restaurant again.

Best regards

(Sun Dec 07 1997 01:11 - ID#288156)
Do you think any gold companies 'dabbled' in repos?

Triparty repo, where a custodian manages the transfers of cash and securities between two counterparties, tops the list of new transactions.

Since the first triparty transactions took place in the early 1990s, activity has doubled or tripled every year. In London alone, daily transactions are estimated at an average of between $50bn and $60bn, with signs that the market is still growing at a healthy pace.

'It is now possible to raise funds while using different types of securities, in small pieces, as collateral,' says Philip Van Hassel, a vice-president of Euroclear, the international clearing bank. There is no longer such a thing as idle case OR IDLE SECURITIES.

Equity repos might seem a natural extension of bond repos. The equity market is huge, broker-dealers run massive inventories, and their ravenous demand for cash should be attractive to lenders. What would make more sense than to post equities as collateral for borrowing to fuel the business?

Cristina Cardellini, executive director in the equities division of Goldman Sachs , said: 'In general, customers have not yet developed the methodology to analyze equity securities taken as collateral in the same way as they have for fixed income securities. Counterparties view equities as being riskier than bonds. In practice these risks are quantifiable and manageable.'

...But powerful voices, principally the leading investment banks, have been urging equity repos on. As with bonds, equity repos help broker-dealers to extract additional yield from their inventories.

The multiplication of hedge funds, whose operations naturally feed off cash, has further increased demand. Big operators such as Nomura are often proprietary dealers and prime brokers for hedge funds."

I admit, quite frankly, that I didn't know there was an equity repo..
Get that paper moving....faster, faster, faster....

John Disney__A
(Sun Dec 07 1997 01:13 - ID#24140)
Serious Vodka drinking

For Oris

Thanks for vodka tip - I lived in Istanbul for 4 years once. Used

to be able get great caviar pretty cheap - better than Iranian by far.

Recipe - for yummy vodka. Open bottle ( s ) - cut rind from lemon.

Stuff into bottle. Place bottle in deep freeze - wont freeze but

gets REALLY cold and almost viscous. Wait a month.

Drink in small shot classes with caviar - or whatever -

frankfurters, hard cheese, stale bread. DEElicious.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 01:32 - ID#288156)
Very distinguished, elegant add, 1/2 page, for Euroclear, which reads

Imagine using all your collateral from one central pool for
triparity securities lending, secured loans, derivatives support and, of course, triparty repos.

Imagine this in a single, multi-market, multi-instrument environment.

Imagine all these transactions fully integrated with yur core settlement activities.

Imagine an automated system that selects and substitutes collateral
as required, according to yur predetermined criteria.

Imagine the savings, the convenience, the sheer efficiency of such a system.

As one of 2,400 Participants in the Euroclear System, you don't need to imagine. It's reality, here and now.
Transactions Speak Louder Than Words"

Quantifiable and Manageable, our brave new world...

Dave in CO
(Sun Dec 07 1997 01:51 - ID#215211)
Didn't realize that the aliens were giving you information. They're steering you wrong, however, when they tell you that Y2K will be a non-event unless they're running those companies with the "magic bullet" you told us about who can fix any business's Y2K problems in a couple of days. I'll listen to posters like FundaMETAList for advice on Y2K.

And thanks anyway but I'll listen to posters like tolerant1 and WSF on the looming political/economic crisis.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 02:10 - ID#252127)
PrivateInvestor 19:36


(Sun Dec 07 1997 03:59 - ID#284255)
World melt - 3 articles
Coutesy of

(Sun Dec 07 1997 04:15 - ID#284255)
Eric Hadik
The Cycle of Time II

Crystal Ball
(Sun Dec 07 1997 06:26 - ID#287367)
@Sharefin Soup
G'day Nick! Hope you are well. Fascinating reading on cycles. Interesting he mentions to look and see what happens 2/96- that's when Au topped out ?$415-418. Has the rain put a damper on the fires down under?

Crystal Ball
(Sun Dec 07 1997 06:27 - ID#287367)
@Sharefin Soup
G'day Nick! Hope you are well. Fascinating reading on cycles. Interesting he mentions to look and see what happens 2/96- that's when Au topped out ?$415-418. Has the rain put a damper on the fires down under?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 06:58 - ID#26793)
Japan banks reveal unrecoverable loans are TRIPLE previously reported amounts.
Japan's Ministry of Finance said it's considering a stricter definition of ``unrecoverable loans,''
soothing investors' concerns about hidden losses but possibly tripling the declared value of banks'
bad loans. The Nov. 24 collapse of Yamaichi Securities Co., which admitted to $2.1 billion ( $17.5
million ) in hidden losses on stock transactions, heightened concerns that other Japanese financial
companies may have understated their debts. Japanese banks may hold 79 trillion yen in
unrecoverable loans, more than three times the value of loans that banks officially reported as non
performing as of the end of March, the Nihon Keizai reported yesterday, without citing sources.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 07:02 - ID#26793)
It took me over an hour to read your last two posts. Seems like time to pick out a dry cave and whittle up a good club.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 07:14 - ID#26793)
Hashimoto describes financial situation as "severe". (Astounding admission!)

(Sun Dec 07 1997 07:31 - ID#26793)
Leading Korean Presidential candidate says he will reopen IMF deal if elected.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 08:03 - ID#238295)
Jim Rogers
I agree with Rogers that commodities must sell blow the cost of production for a considerable period before a new bull market can begin. While gold and gold stocks are heavily oversold and due for a nice bounce, it is too early to expect a new bull market. There ain't gonna be a new bull until a lot of capacity has been shut down. For that to happen the price has to stay depressed for awhile.

BTW, my definition of a bull market is one where investors do better than traders.

The time to start accumulating quality gold stocks is getting close. But the big payoff ( as opposed to modest trading profits ) will require PATIENCE.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 08:09 - ID#284255)
More good reading hear.
Does it bring the bear out in you?

Somtimes I just wonder.
Is this just the tip of the iceburg?
The more I read between the lines,
The more I see coming on the horizon.

I read that we are up to $2 trillion in burnt paper assets.
There must be a lot more to come.
What will be the final tally - $100 trillion?

This site has some interesting reads:
It is well worth exploring all the articles.

Crystal Ball
You will enjoy this cycle work.
Great reading.
The journey pages are good.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 08:14 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton
Good mornin all!....Beautiful day on the North Atlantic with 40 degree temps,nice seabreeze and clear skies.....

(Sun Dec 07 1997 08:34 - ID#364147)
@ PrivateInvestor
Re wind mill farm and excess generated power: Don't know what the policy is here but doubt ( that would be toooo progressive ) the local electric utility ( NSP ) would run your meter backwards for excess power as in states....Cape Breton ( especially much of Cabot Trail and Cheticamp area are the windiest places ( so windy around Cheticamp that trees won't grow ) I've ever seen but typically in five years here have NEVER once heard ANYTHING about harnesing the wind's clean and awesome power to generate electricity and instead because of the long tradition of coal minning,that is the power source that is still fixated on,even though it has extremly high sulpher content and is expensive ( because of the poor productivity and antiquated minning proceedures and @ this point hard to mine beds of coal that are under the sea ) to mine....The two currently running coal mines are big money losers ( gov'ment subsidizes em ) but 'they' are lobbying Ottawa to open up a NEW high sulpher coal mine ( duh ) =hopelessly living in the 'past'.....

(Sun Dec 07 1997 09:04 - ID#224149)
Ted-Working on a new Kitco Hot Air Fan .Now if LGB could help we could heat and electrify the East Coast using the Internet.Happy Trails -away to the Music scene.P.S Gold sure smells like a gentile on LGB sorry mean L.S.D..

Crystal Ball
(Sun Dec 07 1997 09:07 - ID#287367)
Thanks, Nick! was interesting reading. Did you see he mentioned the P-word? How did you like that "Egg of Columbus" routine? Take two Bayer and call me in the morning. ;- )

Robby Hanna__A
(Sun Dec 07 1997 09:08 - ID#356196)
Bearish on Gold?

Are there obvious and subtle forces for gold to continue this bearish slide? I don't know and am just asking.

Is it that the lustre of gold as a store of value no longer holds true, and that demand and consumption are equally depressed. Why should gold bounce here--because it can--because it would look good on the charts? Are such hopeful expectations ever satisfied; I don't know until I make my bet and see what the market price tells me.

Speculation seems the only play for a bearish market; investing and holding any depressed commodity is hard on your time horizon and discipline until such bullishness reappears, and as commented below, quoting Rogers, bearishness can exist a very long time below the production levels before any commodity price will bottom out, settle and market forces drive the price up again. Perhaps it is better to be selling a sinking commodity than buying it in hope for catching the bottoms--how many bottoms have there been these past sev

(Sun Dec 07 1997 09:13 - ID#35767)
Fundametlist and RJ
I. Commitment of Traders

The COT works sometimes but I have found it unreliable. The commercials have been long the Yen and Gold basically throughout their bear markets. However, when they briefly went short gold at 340 the indicator worked like a charm. In sum, I tthink that these markets are far from the only place the game is played.

II. Silver

I believe the shortage in silver is real. The stuff has been running deficits for years and it is for the most part used in production of goods. CPM says the stuff is really gone and so the squeeze is not contrived. They are calling for 8-10 buck silver and soon. Further when you consider that most silver is produced as a by product of gold and copper the situation has to be getting more desparate as consumers see gold mines shuttering and copper on its way down which can only mean lower production there. In sum the decline in gold prices is causing more buying in silver as one source of silver is starting to go away. Hence, consumers see this and are buying now. Lease rates remain high in all time periods, if this were a fake squeeze the lease rate would tend to be inverted. The high lease rate out a year shows that consumers ( who know better than us ) know that the stuff just aint there.

III. Gold

I think we are very close if not at the bottom in gold. Production does not have to massively shut down ( although alot has already ) to start a rally. In fact such was not the case in 77/82/85/92. Further borrowing will dissapate as it is no longer profitable. Further, taking off hedges to realize gains and free up capital to make cheap acquisitions is more likely. CB sales are insignificant and their lending will slow down once the demand for loans dissapates. They may even call in loans if the rally gets a head of steam. Silver usually leads gold and it is telling us along with almost hopeless bearishness on gold that a rally is coming. The latest crash ensures that many will be trying to top tick the metals for years to come and getting their A handed to them. IMHO. The 1987 and 1990 debacle in stocks had the same effect in that market.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 09:32 - ID#364147)
@ Poorboys
Re-all that 'hot air'---damn good idea~~~~~~~~~~

Golden Boy
(Sun Dec 07 1997 09:35 - ID#430233)
Robby Hanna: The problem as I see it is whenever an investment is purchased ( even on speculation ) there better be an exit plan in place. I've learned this the hard way losing alot more by holding than by selling when something is purchased that is in a bear cycle. Gold is rallying a little today +2.50ish. In a bear market you buy the "bottoms" and selll the rallies. Or you sell the rallies if you're long and need tax loses or whatever and look for other investments or opportunities until the bottom in gold has clearly been established. Good trading!!

(Sun Dec 07 1997 09:43 - ID#35767)
How'd ya do at the Casino in Sydney last nite ol boy. Better en gold I hope eh! 40 degrees here in the Wash DC burbs. Yesterday used a pay phone at chi chi Magiano's restaurant in McLean at Tyson's Galleria ( 5.50 for a glass of red wine but excellent food ) and it was 35 cents!

Crystal Ball
(Sun Dec 07 1997 09:44 - ID#287367)
Your 9:13 post is excellent! Sterling logic. I congratulate you.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 09:52 - ID#284255)
KAMCHATKA going crazy
Last week it was Mammoth Mountain.
This week the award goes to Kamchatka.
Could it be a big one?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 09:52 - ID#333131)
Politics and IMF funding
Hs. Banking committee chairman, Jim Leach says he will schedule hearings in late Jan. on IMF funding. I think someone already posted the following, but note the language in the last two paragraphs. "Whatever one's views of a particular president at a particular time, Congress is obligated to support the presidency in the prudential conduct of international economic policy."

Is he preparing for a fight or what?

I wonder what the congress is going to be hearing from South Korea while this fight takes place here.

Is it now taken for granted that the president conducts "international economic policy?

Crystal Ball
(Sun Dec 07 1997 09:55 - ID#287367)
@Mike Sheller
You said now you know how it feels to live on Cape Breton. How *does* it feel to live on Cape Breton? Where are you located? Maybe you, Tolerant1 ( in Huntington ) , and I will get together and celebrate the New Moon ... Lunar/Solar Eclipse ... Solar Flares ... Ring around Uranus ... and other harbingers of the "soon-to-be-born" Bull Market in the shiny yellow stuff! ;- )

(Sun Dec 07 1997 09:58 - ID#26793)
The collapse is on. IMF having funding problems etc.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 09:59 - ID#364147)
@ ROR and Casinos + Crystal Ball(??)
ROR: Lost as usual ( sickly grin thing ) ....didn't see George S. Cole there either!~~~~Crystal Ball: have you been drinking or something??

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:00 - ID#333131)
Listing of debts to major international banks by country and region at the start of all this.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:00 - ID#31868)
You 9:13 post is a solid one IMHO. I have been watching silver for a long time now and I think the market is getting tight as a drum. I think that once it starts to move it will explode in terms of the mining stocks.

People will want to get in on the "bonanza" and push the thinly traded silver stocks way up. Stocks like Avino and First Silver Reserve will quite literally explode.

I am hoping that the slingshot effect on silver will happen without gold moving so that I can take profits from silver and switch them into gold and platinum physical as well as some carefully chosen gold stocks. Of course that is wishful thinking, but I believe if one acts prudently it can happen.

In addition the paper fiasco taking place worldwide will renew keen interest in the metals, adding further fuel to the fire. If only a very tiny percentage of people in the much loved paper markets move into the metals things will be explosive to say the least.

IMHO careful, clear headed thinking will make fortunes for those that watch silver in the coming months.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:01 - ID#35767)
It would be a real irony if the gold industry got clocked because they are short gold and the move up in gold is sudden and explosive and the forward and lease markets break down b/c the CBs have loaned most of their gold out. Given the commodities price elasticity and annual deficit and given about 500 tonnes in sales to keep equilibrium is it not reasonable to assume that to drive the price from 420 in 2/96 to 290 in 12/97 that maybe somewhere on the order of 10-15000 tonnes have been lent out. That doesnt include previous loans and constitutes a third to one half of what the CBs have. The number has to be at least that high when you consider the number of years of future production known to be sold and this is without considering the massive speculative borrowing and shorting.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:03 - ID#284255)
IMF - Korea's new political play
S.Koreans confused, angry about economic crisis
``I don't understand just borrowing a lot of money, and I don't understand what is going to happen,''
``We talk about responsibility and we say 'you're responsible', 'I'm responsible' and 'everyone is responsible', but I think 99 percent of the responsibility rests with the government,'
``If the former ruling party says it is not responsible for this situation, it doesn't make sense,'
``We should solve our problems ourselves without going to foreigners for money,''
``Foreigners don't need to be involved in Korea's problems,''
``I am concerned about my salary and about the possibility of layoffs,'
``I don't feel good about Korea having to go to the IMF because it's like economic colonialism,''
``People aren't really sure about what's happening....Many Koreans are taking their money out of banks because they're worried about bank failures, but that's the worst thing to do for the country,''
``I want to take my money out, too, but I'm restraining myself,''

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:07 - ID#284255)
Tough descisions
Thai markets await govt decision on finance firms
BANGKOK, Dec 7 ( Reuters ) - Thai financial markets are expected to steady this week as focus turns to a government announcement expected on Monday on the fate of 58 suspended financial firms,
``Investors are waiting for a government decision on the fate of 58 suspended finance companies which will be announced on Monday,''
``They also want to know how foreign creditors of the suspended firms would get their money back,''
The IMF has said most of the debt-ridden firms -- seen as largely responsible for Thailand's crisis -- were insolvent and should be shut permanently. Its director-general Michel Camdessus said last Friday he believed Thailand would make a bold decision on the firms.
Analysts expect less than 10 of the 58 suspended firms to reopen. Total assets of the suspended firms are put by industry sources at 800 billion baht ( $190.5 billion ) while their loans outstanding amount to about half their assets.
``Any recovery in the market will require solid convincing evidence of an economic turnaround with renewed monetary expansion accompanied by lower interest rates,''
``Looking ahead, the underlying ( baht ) sentiment has not changed. Market trades are thin and confidence is weak. However, we may be able to enjoy mild relief so long as no major blow up occurs this month,''

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:11 - ID#333131)
Greedy sheep to the slaughter
BIS reports record international borrowing WITH NARROWING SPREADS! Apparently risk is not a factor in this market.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:12 - ID#31868)
If I was Mr. Camdessus I would start looking into Kevlar underware. This guy is shooting his mouth off and represents an organization that is pretending to have the answers. I am sure there are not too many in Asia that have much regard for his continuing to breathe.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:21 - ID#267276)
If I am correct the IMF has about $25billion + in gold reserves. The only way they can get the funds they are going to need is for the price of gold to skyrocket. Then they would have the backing to continue their carnage.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:24 - ID#341214)
ROR: Your comment regarding lease rates is new to me and I'll be sure to add it to my notes. Thanks for the excellent in-a-nutshell summary. When I see what's happened to gold shares and gold producers lately it makes me think back to Glenn's comment not so long ago about how the gold producers were going to have to feel some pain before we could get a bottom. And here we are!


(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:26 - ID#428142)
LDP eyes sale of Japanese gov't-held U.S. bonds

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) plans to mull over
a scheme to sell part of Japanese government-held U.S. Treasury bonds
to raise dollars for Japanese banks, LDP officials said Sunday.
They said the scheme is designed to help Japanese banks faced
with difficulties in raising dollars for year-end demand amid fading
confidence abroad in Japanese financial institutions due to a series
of collapses of major institutions such as Yamaichi Securities Co.
and Hokkaido Takushoku Bank.

I think Dec.9th or 10th will be important days.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:29 - ID#31868)
Here is a tourist attraction you have never seen before!
Malaysian official: Tourists might enjoy mass circumcisions
Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 Reuters

KUALA LUMPUR ( December 7, 1997 09:06 a.m. EST ) - Group circumcision ceremonies could become a profit-making tourist attraction in Malaysia, according to Culture, Arts and Tourism Minister Sabbaruddin Chik.

Mass circumcisions are cultural activities that could be turned into money-making ventures in the ethnically-diverse nation, he was quoted as telling the daily Star newspaper.

"By charging tourists a small fee... to watch such cultural events, the organizational costs can be covered," Chik told the paper after attending a circumcision ceremony in Kuala Lumpur on Saturday.

Tourists would "enjoy watching something that was different from the norm," he said.

The Star said 48 boys, including two Hindus, were circumcised in Saturday's ceremony.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:30 - ID#427357)
MONEY SUPPLY RISES - Broadest Measure of Money Supply M3 SOARS
MONEY SUPPLY RISES - Broadest Measure of Money Supply M3 SOARS

USA TODAY ( Dec. 4 ) -
For the latest 13 weeks, M2 averaged $3,974.7 billion, a 6.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate of gain from the previous 13 weeks. M3 averaged $5,243.5 billion, up 10.3%. Both measures of money supply will give impetus to rising inflation.

The Hong Kong Oracle, Milhouse, has always maintained there is a positive correlation between the trends of money supply ( M3 ) and the price of gold. In light of M3s accelerating growth rate in recent months - the highest increase in over a decade, and nearly DOUBLE the Feds upper range guideline - it is well worth a re-study of Milhouses analysis, US MONEY SUPPLY AND THE DEMAND FOR GOLD:

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:31 - ID#288157)
Sharefin--The Euro-money 'world melt' articles...
An important contribution Sharefin...
the puzzle pieces fitting together
the image becoming clear
NOT a pretty picture

Also, very grateful for some Super
URLs!...your Dad's poetry
and your research ( and your generosity in sharing your work )
are very valuable supports
my sincere thanks

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:35 - ID#31868)
Sign of the times: Asian stockbroker sells sandwiches to survive
Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 Agence France-Presse

BANGKOK ( December 6, 1997 8:47 p.m. EST ) - As he fumbles in his plastic cooler box, sandwich vendor Siriwat seems light years from the high-flying life he led as one of Thailand's top stock market wizards.

The former head of a securities firm who once made more than $380,000 a month when Thailand boasted the world's fastest growing economy, is lucky these days if he makes a few hundred.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:36 - ID#427357) "TIPS'
Tolaerant1: REF Your comment "Mass circumcisions are cultural activities that could be turned into money-making ventures in the ethnically-diverse nation, he was quoted as telling the daily Star newspaper."

I onced asked a Rabbi how much he charges for a circumcision ( Bris ) , he answered with a straight-face and a twinkle in his eye,
"$500 plus 'tips.'

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:40 - ID#35767)
"Germany will not sell one ounce of Gold" Theo Waigel German Finance Minister

"Several Central Banks which had sold gold from their reserves now feel there is no longer an advantage to selling more bullion as any advantage was outweighed by the loss in reserves from reducing the gold price. It seems to me that the market is more influenced by psychological phenomena than Central Bank Gold sales. Rumors that European Central Banks will sell a portion of their gold reserves are devoid of substance. "
Jean Pierre Patat French Central Bank

Shuji Karasawa Japanese Parliament
Japanese gold holdings are far too low.

"the extraordinary decline in gold prices is in small part due to Central Bank gold Sales"
Alan Greenspan

Head of Japanese LDP
dollar dependence to great we need more gold to offset excessive dollar dependence.

And it goes on. These commentas are just not reported.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:42 - ID#427357)
D.A. ( gold.lending ) & Kahunna: YOUR COMMENTS --
Should the companies go belly up without having repaid their ( GOLD ) loans, some bullion banks are going to find themselves on line with other creditors. They will then have to go to the open market to buy gold to return to the central banks. And ...when it comes time to repay or provide the gold for delivery isn't someone gonna take a bath? I would like to complement both your astute observations with the following.

Over a month ago GOLD-EAGLE reported the Confession of the Bundesbank that it HAD BEEN MAKING GOLD LOANS FOR SOME TIME. In our comment we called special attention to a scathing critique of Central Bank Gold lending practices. The report was compiled by Ted Butler.

Mr. Butlers study, which rings with logic and clarity in emphatically stating the GOLD LENDING PRACTICE RAMIFICATIONS BY CENTRAL BANKS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE YELLOW METAL TO SOAR IN VALUE.

When Central Banks awake from their stupor & stop giving away their GOLD for free, supply side of metal fundamentals will develop an immediate vacuum & Gold prices will SOAR:

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:45 - ID#284255)
Idle Speculation
Something cooking at Kamchatka?

Psychology of Risk, Speculation and Fraud
I'm going to talk, not just about EMU, but also about the psychology of risk, speculation and fraud. Indulge me as I digress from EMU for a short while. I thought after a morning of EMU, you might appreciate a mental stretch of the legs as we stroll away onto the wider plains of financial risk upon which we all live.

Why is this relevant to you? It's relevant because it forms part of the typically unquantified risk arena in which you all operate. No one is immune from the speculators, from the risk of fraud, from the all too human motivations of greed, and ego.

Human nature hasn't changed, but the scope for financial destruction had increased dramatically with technology led interdependence of financial markets, increasing transaction size, and the advent of the derivatives markets.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:47 - ID#347332)
tolerant1 & fundaMETAList
TO tolerant1 & fundaMETAList;
Good morning guys. fundaMETAList, you are correct sir.
gunpowder. The mother of all invention.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:49 - ID#31868)
priceless, simply priceless.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:52 - ID#31868)
Never would have thunk it!

Crystal Ball
(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:54 - ID#287367)
Hiyah Ted! What makes you think I've been drinking "or something?"

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:57 - ID#26793)
IMF now in charge of global economy, Greenspan is out

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:59 - ID#364147)
Mike Sheller and Cape Breton??
Howdy Crystal Ball-----you posted @ Mike Sheller about Cape Breton ( huh? )

(Sun Dec 07 1997 10:59 - ID#333131)
IMF worried should controversy flare in congress over IMF funding

(Sun Dec 07 1997 11:00 - ID#35767)
Are ya drinkin already? Gitiin ready for the football this afternoon eh?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 11:06 - ID#333131)
Who else but a socialist would think that they could "manage" the world financial system?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 11:08 - ID#364147)
ROR and Drinkin
No 'juice' for this dude today.......Go Giants----beat de Eagles!

(Sun Dec 07 1997 11:09 - ID#288157)
Sharefin: I reserve for myself the right to keep my eyes tightly closed to
some things! I'm studiously ignoring Kamchatka...
Our soil is subject to liquefaction...
It has been raining...
It IS raining...

and I'm already 'all shook up'
going to go read some poetry!

(Sun Dec 07 1997 11:21 - ID#35767)
What are you picks?

Giants +5 at Eagles over/under 36
Seahawks pkm at Ravens over/under 44

(Sun Dec 07 1997 11:24 - ID#26793)
Many people our age were "socialists" when we were kids but we got over it. I hope he did.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 11:39 - ID#31868)
which currency?
While I have been reading the posts I have noticed the constant talk of this currency and that currency. I for one have decided on four separate currencies. Gold, silver, platinum and palladium. For cash in my pocket I utilize coins of each. For my larger needs I look to e-gold as my safest money system. It will not be part of the paper meltdown.

Of course I keep some US dollars on hand and a small supply in the Parker Brothers monopoly bank. But everything I see and read tells me that financial stability around the globe is as fragile as a hollow egg. I am so thankful for the Internet and consider it a pipeline to vast quantities of information and thoughts that were never available so quickly and at the push of a button.

There is nothing positive in the reports and the numbers being tossed around as bailouts and economic policy are discussed. Believe me, nothing is too big to fail. Those are the last words heard from Captain of the Titanic.

The iceberg in this instance was the meltdown in Asia and it is taking the global community into a deflationary black hole in which no paper assets are safe and no government can be trusted IMHO.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 11:39 - ID#35767)
My friends Socialism is alive and well its called the "bailout" "too big to fail" "the Plunge Protection Team" etc. The question isnt about being for big govt everyone is IF IT BENEFITS THEM. To the extent it costs them or protects someone else instead of them then it is intrusive big govt. Let the other guy take mkt discipline but give me a govt bailout. Today socialism is for big financial institutions and investments while they try to figure a way to reduce Social Security or Medicare which people in their 30s and 40s are paying for. They ( the 30/40 year olds ) need to become self reliant and be subject to market discipline unlike the foreign govts and mistake prone and corrupt financial institutions which may owe big bucks or be interconnected to some of our big boys. Has anyone heard the free marketers on Wall St decry the "Plunge Protection Team" or the "bailouts". Ans NO because that is their brand of Socialism. However, they will talk about the need to "fix" Social Security because it is a growing entitlement which may interfere with their ability to get their brand of Big Govt Socialism down the line.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 12:02 - ID#372344)
@ Deja-Vu all over again?
Speaking of the upcoming collapse of some financial institutions because of their GOLD lending practices,does it remind anyone of when the London Gold Pool went broke because of it's Gold practices?

ROR I couldn't agree more with your financial and corporate welfare

(Sun Dec 07 1997 12:07 - ID#26793)
As I was reading the Sharefin Meltdown post this morning I wondered if we here at Kitco know more than any other people in the world about the true nature of the financial situation. I know of no other place where so many up-to-date pieces of information are assembled so rapidly. I suppose you can never see the secret stuff; but by putting the pieces together along with the insights of the people on this board you get the best possible view of the financial future on the planet. Thanks Bart.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 12:09 - ID#344308)
24 days or less----------------------------

who's been tellin ya' ta' buy eurodollar puts?--------

bought some? buy some more--------------------------------------

ted---sick seagull with diaphanous veil of smoke coming before days end--

cherokee!; ) -------PUT ( ting ) -with-corn-----the-pewter--and---eurodollars--

(Sun Dec 07 1997 12:14 - ID#31868)
I agree. There is a fortune in information to be found here. Thanks to Bart for providing a stage upon which many acts may play.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 12:31 - ID#26793)
Indonesian problems intensify in spite of IMF assistance

(Sun Dec 07 1997 12:40 - ID#26793)
China developing its economy on Korean model; banking meltdown feared.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 12:45 - ID#364147)
headphones tightly strapped on
ROR: My pics: My Team ( Giants ) will stink up the 'Vet'....loyal fan I CherOkee: Smoke signals driftin closer~~~~~~~~

(Sun Dec 07 1997 12:47 - ID#31868)
Ted, Ted, Ted.......ssst,,,ssst,,,,ssst
The Giants feast on the birds. Tough game, Giants by 11. Tequila makes you brave.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 12:49 - ID#26793)
Bank of England reveals gold reserves
Bank of England: Opens books on forex and
gold reserves


By Robert Chote, Economics Editor

The Treasury and the Bank of England, the UK central bank, yesterday
opened the books on the Britain's reserves of gold and foreign exchange,
revealing that the government has more in its war chest than earlier figures

The plan to publish these figures was announced by Gordon Brown, the
chancellor of the exchequer, at September's International Monetary Fund
annual meeting in Hong Kong.

The first quarterly report on the reserves confirmed yesterday that the UK
government had gold and foreign exchange worth $41.015bn in its "exchange
equalisation account" at the end of September. But yesterday's report
revealed that, in addition, it had $1.240bn in forward holdings - currency
which other holders have an obligation to sell to the government in the future.

This meant that the total assets in the exchange equalisation account totalled
$42.255bn, up from $41.838bn at the end of June. The report also detailed
the composition of these assets for the first time. They included $20.5bn in
European Union currencies, $11.4bn in US dollars, $1.5bn in Japanese yen
and $222m in other currencies.

In addition to holdings of foreign exchange, the account also included $6bn of
gold, $2.3bn in effect on deposit with the IMF and $399m in "special drawing
rights", the IMF's currency.

The report also included details of the Bank of England's holdings of gold and
foreign exchange. These are deposits placed with the Bank by overseas
central banks and other customers in the course of their normal banking
relationship with the Bank.

The Bank's assets include $658m in US dollars, $137m in EU currencies and
$1m in other foreign exchange. The Bank also holds $1.2bn in gold, which it
lends on behalf of the owners.

But this figure understates the amount of gold which the Bank holds in its
vaults. Gold for which the Bank acts simply as a custodian does not enter the
Bank's balance sheet.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 12:55 - ID#20137)
Date: Sun Dec 07 1997 10:00
Carl ( Listing of debts to major international banks by country and region at the start of all this. )

It would be interesting to see how the USA, Germany, Canada, Britain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden would look in this chart.

Country Amounts outstanding: ( in millions of dollars )
June 1997 Dec 1996 Dec 1995
South Korea 116,823 108,792 83,260

(Sun Dec 07 1997 12:56 - ID#364147)
@ Tolerant
Bein a 'native' New Yorker I go back to the days Y.A.Title and Charlie Connerly but these days I am a very nervous supporter of the 'Big Blue' and I got that sinkin feelin before kick-off----maybe that tequilla suggestion is just what the doctor ordered.....god knows the brownies ain't doin the trick.......Go Giants + gold!!!

(Sun Dec 07 1997 12:59 - ID#364147)
@ Tolerant(1)
Forgot the one in previous post ( stupid grin thing ) ~~~~~~~~~~

(Sun Dec 07 1997 13:02 - ID#26793)
Analysis of Russian financial situation. Hint, it's not good.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 13:04 - ID#20137)
Good catch Donald.

In addition to holdings of foreign exchange, the account also included $6bn of
gold, $2.3bn in effect on deposit with the IMF and $399m in "special drawing
rights", the IMF's currency.

It is interesting that "for the first time they are giving figures".

Do you think that that the gold they have on deposit with the IMF is being double counted - once by the IMF to issue SDR's and apparantly by the BOE.

Tantalus Rex
(Sun Dec 07 1997 13:08 - ID#295111)
S&P Ratings - Gold Mining
FYI, it's old news ( Fri/Dec/5/97 ) but in case you're interested in S&P's updated ratings on Gold Mining Companies.....

(Sun Dec 07 1997 13:16 - ID#26793)
Link to all the stock exchanges in the world

(Sun Dec 07 1997 13:24 - ID#26793)
@A. Goose
It would not be GAAP to do the accounting that way. Also, as ounces are not given you don't know the price they used to arrive at the total. This is not full disclosure by any means. Perhaps the info was released but did not get included in the story.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 13:25 - ID#285309)
IMF Must Be Selling!!!
In our discussions of gold sales by CBs we have totally neglected to mention the possibility of IMF gold sales.

As you know IMF "owns" 45,000,000 oz of gold. I do not know where these bastards got the gold from ( probably from Ft Knox ) , but they do own 1499 tons of gold.

I have gone back over the information released during the time when the sale of IMF gold was discussed ( about 1.5 to 2 years ago ) . IMF decided then to hold back for a while with the sale, primarily due to the German opposition.

Now, however, with the world's financial crises at hand and without enough $$$ for bailouts, maybe IMF has been selling the gold for the last year or so. If, say for instance, their average price has been $350, then the total sale would be close to $15.75 billion.

Also, this gold sale would have two effects, both of them positive as far as IMF and company are concerned. Income and lower gold prices.

cool lurk
(Sun Dec 07 1997 13:30 - ID#147104)
Hey Joey! What's a' happenin' my remember Dom Battipaglia...he's the cat that runs our New York office.

Hey Butterpattia!...nice to meet you bro. What's a shaken' back east... hope everything's cool,,

Oh yea man, me and my man Kudlow here are just goin' over what's cookin' for next a hot one baby!

Hey... let ol' Joey in on it, baby.

Hell, Joey, ask that old bag you're with about it, man...she's in on the deal. Old lady Lurk is takin' care of Greenspan...

Hey! You're puttin' me on! She's an old, she's over there losin' her butt.

Yea, she may be nuts...but she's got that banana puddin' thing happenin'

Hell, ol' Greenie ate a quart of that puddin' and wafers last nite... those micron chips are headin' straight for that little brain of his...were fixin' to make the big chips, baby!

What in the hell are you two talkin' about...let ol' Joey in on man...hell, I got you in on that Phoenix deal, baby. We made a couple a cool bills on that one, baby.

Alright, Joey... just buy ya' a couple thousand shares of MICRON WAFERS TECHNOLOGIES when it opens Tuesday...the rest'll take care of itself, Joey.

Hey man, thanks....I gotta' split... I told the old toasted bag over there I'd take her to see Elvis! Jesus H Christ! See ya.

Hey Joey, tell Poppa Bonano hello for us both, man.


Now, where were we, Kudlow, before that dumb little punk came over here? Oh yea, wes' were bullin' about little Jimmy Rogers. Ha!

Yea, man, 'member he started pushin' that gold deal...and Poppa says, "Let's have one of those mass circumcision parties for little Jimmy."

And, 'member my knife slipped just a wee bit...and, wooohhh!

Hey, Dommie, little Jimmy looks good in a bow-tie...he's not a problem no more.

Cool...I think I'll have me another Manhattan with those little gold flakes in for another, Dommie?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 13:36 - ID#31868)
Brownies and the Giants, sheesh! A whole new level of paranoia.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 13:36 - ID#334219)
fundaMETALIST and Y2K
fundaMETALIST: "Now, with no time left, they are going to use the date windowing technique and will not disturb their data structures."

Can you explain what is the windowing technique ? Since it is not appropriate discussion for this forum, you can send the reply to Thanks.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 13:41 - ID#341214)
Bart, Voting with Donald__A and tolerant1
As a lurker for the last year I can atest to the many ways in which one's mind can be expanded here, from discourses on the world financial situation to Ted's brownies. The contributions by board members and the hopefully never ending stream of links have given me an education I could not have obtained anywhere else. Others here have said it before me:This place is my classroom. Many sincere thanks Bart.

My reason for beginning to post is two-fold. First, I hope to be able to add my weight here to those who are alerting you to the Year 2000 situation ( I've been in the coding trenches for 20+ years ) . If the powers that be manage to absorb and shake off the punch from the Asian Flu then the punch from the approaching Year 2000 debacle is going to clean their clocks. Second, if anyone is interested, I could share with you the story of a beginning silver futures trader ( 1 years experience now with humiliations galore ) .

Since Y2K is my primary reason for posting let me take this opportunity to ask you all to pick up a copy of the book by Ed Yourdon and his daughter titled Timebomb 2000. It should be in the bookstores during the first half of December. Ed Yourdon has written a couple dozen books on programming but this one is targeted at the man in the street. Get it, read it, know it then let's discuss it. You won't regret the time you spend on this subject.


(Sun Dec 07 1997 13:51 - ID#285309)
Latest M2 & M3 Data

The latest money supply figures from FRB show that the demand for money is escalating, as well as the debt monetization.

For the last 3 months the annualized rate of M2 and M3 expansion has reached 7.2 and 10.1% , respectively.

When one inspects the money supply growth rate from 1992 ( when it was briefly negative!! ) on, it is clear there is a very definite, strong uptrend and it is accelerating. With productivity rates far below these rates, how can this be not strongly inflationary ?????

(Sun Dec 07 1997 13:56 - ID#341214)
CC: I'll be glad to. I'll use the e-mail route as you suggested.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:00 - ID#22956)
Good Morning, afternoon, etc.
A mild 60F and heavy rain ( have a break right now ) . We in Cal have been getting heavy floods ( flash and otherwise ) . Anyone see Huntington lately?? That's because it's under water!! UNBELIEVABLE! They are predicting 8 or so inches of rain in TWO days in my neck of the woods.....I guess no golf....ugh.


I am confused at statements like this. How can this be said and believed if EVERY time the announcement of CB sales drives the price DOWN, DOWN, DOWN. Is this just something to say to make us feel better and to throw more good money at BAD??!? I will ask Spud or whoever...."who is writing dis-information on Kitco"? ME?!? Or all who say things like what ROR said ( absolutely NO offense ROR ) . I guess some Kitcoites can believe this and waste their money.......who am I to argue...It ain't MY money.........ugh. I would be more inclined to understand and believe this if a time frame was put on the 'slow down' part. Say one month, one year, never...etc...

Date: Sun Dec 07 1997 09:13

ROR ( Fundametlist and RJ ) ID#35767:

CB sales are insignificant and their lending will slow down

once the demand for loans dissapates.

This gold market is SOOOOOOOOOO slippery weak and in such dire need of change that I guess anything will be said in the 'hopes' that this will make it turn around. This 'Bottom' is NOT in. And it WON'T be in for some time. And when the dust settles gold will be cheap and I will BUY, BUY, BUY!!! 'what goes down, must go....etc.'

Now here is something interesting for the option players ( with mention of gold ) to chew on. Eh, Savage?? I'm coming at ya, real soon. I had/have many honeydoes to do. But the house looks GREAT! oh my...

this dude ( TimZ ) is okee dokee sometimes. I have a net-minder on this guys page ( and others ) to inform me when he writes new's pretty cool stuff and here it is.

Hey Ted, you are right. Have two for me... bring on the cheer


(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:07 - ID#31868)
I have posted the address for people to look and check out what he has to say. Being the first person in my family to walk upright I found the site to be very informative.

Glad to see you pushing his work as I feel that it is clearly written for the folks looking for answers but somewhat confused by alot of technical mumbo jumbo.

Cheers to ya.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:09 - ID#288155)
EB@14:00, Just curious....
do you believe this sentence?

"Now that the US is on the verge of a balanced budget..."

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:12 - ID#22956)

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:21 - ID#390214)
RJ you see $260 before 320?

..and can you be more specific in your forecast re: rally in early '98 ( Jan?Feb? )


(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:25 - ID#31868)
I think it is safe to say with the instability in the financial world that we are close to the point where the markets will drive the price of gold upwards regardless of the CBs and their "threats" of sales.

The amount of paper floating around makes the total above ground stock of gold look miniscule. There is no where near the amount of gold on the planet to match the fear in paper at this point.

Clearly governments and banks will do anything to stop a flight to safety in gold. Eventually even the dumbest of the dumb will see this ploy for what it is and the wrath of the global populace will go hunting for politicians, even those weasels with a 120 million standing army.

Those who create become the hosts for the parasitic life form known as the welfare statists. The political herd needs to be trimmed. So be it.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:28 - ID#390214)
ROR and all other (RYO's)
Comtemplating before taking the plunge. Why would Ms. Witte who apparently rewarded herself for her hedging expertise in fiscal '96 would n't part hedge on RYO high cost mines ( over 300 ) in view of a slumping gold market.

It would appear that shareholders have paid an expensive price in her misread of the bullion market.

Having second thoughts.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:30 - ID#35767)
Central Bank gold sales are insignificant to the market as both Alan Greenspan and Pierre Pettat of the French CB have said. It is the massive demand for loans and the CB announcements and rumors just give fuel to the shorts and have panicked the producers. Prices are so low now that hedging makes no sense so the shorts will have less ammo. When the price rises you will here stories of CBs not selling but buying.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:33 - ID#239377)
The more I read all these posts, the more I think that we
should not try to figure it all out, unless we want to have
THE FUN out of it. However, it is exremely educational for
all of us. Truth is somewhere in the middle, like usual.

I do not believe in extreme scenario of total financial
crash or total crash of the role of GOLD. There are only
3 basic things to back up any currency - military force,
gold and oil. For this reason, US$ will be a King for a
very long time, no matter what. As I mentioned before,
gold is a great stabilizer for the whole world, and nobody
can cancel this stabilizing role in our life, no matter what.
Oil is a juice of life, military force is a judge of life -
sorry for some simplified presentation of important things.

You are right that history repeats itself all the time,
and our only problem can be a wrong timing. Gold will be
back, sentiment will change again, life will continue, many people
will lose money, some people will make money, then it starts
all over again, DEJA-VU, as you said.

The other thing that is important to consider - gold and oil can
buy real military force, but paper never.... Oil and gold are behind

Just an extremely intriguing thought, indeed I am just a plain guy...

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:33 - ID#35767)
Through 97 RYO is hedged, further they have sold calls through 98 and have collected substantial premium. Peggy now thinks gold has limited downside and expects a rally in 1998. Option premium reduces cost by about 25 US per oz.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:33 - ID#364147)
@ The 'Vet'
GIants 21-7 over eagles @ half time ( ( yes ) ) ) ....can't see it though as can only get Packers-Bucs on small DSS!!...and now with snow-sleet-rain commin down am losing the picture of even that!...EB: Sorry ta hear about all the rain ( grin thing ) that you are getting ( probably just the FIRST of many BAD storms YOU will get this winter,courtesy of El Nino.....that's life bro~~~~~~~~go team gold!

Golden Boy
(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:37 - ID#430233)
nomercy: I agree with your comments. I've seen alot of criticism about hegding but I think it's just good business sense. I heard barrick and others have hedged well into the future. Gold miners should be in business to profit from their mining operations and not be simply speculators.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:44 - ID#390214)
...I'm not doubting you, however, some people have said that Ms. Witte is known to exaggerate at times. Is there anywhere where we can follow up on the sale of '98 calls.

Also would this calls be bought back in '98? since RYO costs in last qtr were $310 and presumably expected under $300 for the 4th qtr. according to a news release of a few weeks ago.


(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:46 - ID#157190)
Nomercy - RYO
Most miners never dreamed gold would be at these prices, and there is no
negative bonus for bad moves. It was rather nauseating to see Ms. Witte
paying herself a big bonus when their Colomac mine was on a collision
course. As a mining engineer I have always been baffled as to why a
company could have been so dumb as to try to put a property like Colomac
into production, and how could ( Kilborn? ) have been so incompentent on
their feasibility study.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:51 - ID#35767)
The calls were sold with some expiring each month throughout the year. If you want information call Nick Volk who is a trader at 425-822-8992. He stated that they realized about 25 per oz on the options. No spot forwards for now. You have to admit their trading has been pretty good they just need to cross that bridge to a low cost producer with Kemess. Where would they be without the hedging. Right now I think they are a little more bullish on gold for 98. Without the spot deferreds they will participate in any rise much more than other companies.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:53 - ID#93130)
Does RYO have anyone at the corporate level with substantial experience in mining operations at the mine level?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:54 - ID#26793)
Russian gold theft

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:57 - ID#31868)
All of these reports tell me one thing and one thing only. When push comes to shove, the only real, liquid money on the planet that counts is gold.

Golden Boy
(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:59 - ID#430233)
Why would anyone sell there future production at or below their cost?
It makes sense to hedge when you can lock in a reasonable profit or if you're just trying to break even because you think the market will turn up. As far as not beliving prices would be this low, shouldn't low prices be factored into a worst case scenario?? and what if gold goes to 200 what then??

(Sun Dec 07 1997 14:59 - ID#390214)

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:00 - ID#426220)
MONEY SUPPLY RISES - Broadest Measure of Money Supply M3 SOARS
USA TODAY ( Dec. 4 ) -

For the latest 13 weeks, M2 averaged $3,974.7 billion, a 6.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate of gain from the previous 13 weeks. M3 averaged $5,243.5 billion, up 10.3%. Both measures of money supply will give impetus to rising inflation.

The Hong Kong Oracle, Milhouse, has always maintained there is a positive correlation between the trends of money supply ( M3 ) and the price of gold. In light of M3s accelerating growth rate in recent months - the highest increase in over a decade, and nearly DOUBLE the Feds upper range guideline - it is well worth a re-study of Milhouses analysis, US MONEY SUPPLY AND THE DEMAND FOR GOLD:

Golden Boy
(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:02 - ID#430233)
Gold's value
tolerant1: Isn't gold going through it's own devaluation right now?? What is gold really worth right now? and next month what is it's real worth?? next year??

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:03 - ID#35767)
Golden Boy
Good point, who will drive it to 200 when the forward selling and gold loan demand dry up. This is the stuff of how lows are made.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:06 - ID#426220)
SILVER LINING by The Astrological Investor
Analyst Mike Sheller asserts long-term speculators in bullion and mining stocks may be looking at the kind of opportunity right now that presents itself every several years in the heartbeat of the gold cycle. The last time he made a similar call, he was RIGHT ON THE MONEY in predicting the lows of Oil and Gas stocks in early 1994. Subsequently, hundreds of percent gains were made.

At this particular astrological moment, he says, We kind of feel the same way right now about gold and silver. He names his favorite stocks... which may rise to the stars ( pun intended ) :

Golden Boy
(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:09 - ID#430233)
Your comments make sense. When forward selling begins to dry up and less gold is produced because of inability to make a profit from the mining operations lows will begin to be established. One question is how many new low cost mines be brought on stream that can still make a profit at 250-300?? and what about the high relative cost of gold for people in countries where their curriencies have already been devalued?? does this make the gold they presently have in any form worth alot more anf encourage them to sell to pay off loans or whatever?? I remember when gold was 800 and the people lining the streets to sell family heirlooms, etc. Are they lining the streets in Asia selling now??

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:14 - ID#31868)
Golden Boy
Point well taken. However, you must admit that there is a finite amount of above ground gold. There are trillions of paper money units that are getting more nervous as we speak.

Mr. Dell and Mr. Disney just turned in their stock. Insider sales of stock are growing by the day. I do not believe that these people are stupid. In the very near future there simply will not be enough gold to go around and the price of the physical and mining shares will move up in a price explosion.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:14 - ID#26793)
Mrs. Ponzi: do not let your boy try this at home.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:21 - ID#390214)
Donald (Deflation/Inflation)
Would Asians countries, whose currency has devalued, define their economy in deflation or inflation mode? ( from their perspective ) It would appear to me that though 'commodity prices' have fallen in US $, it may actually have risen ( inflation ) in those countries.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:23 - ID#333131)
A little history of IMF and Camdessus.
I spent part of the afternoon researching Camdessus's history. You all may find the following interesting. I find it ominous. What we have here is a guy that is expanding the power and range of influence of the IMF ( and himself ) at every opportunity. Every world crisis plays into his hands.

Getting to know Michel Camdessus:
Business Week, Dec 3 84. M Camdessus, the new head of the Banqu de France, faces a tough job. He must realize the Socialists deregulation plans on a tight timetable, while ignoring pressure to ease up on credit restrictions. That pressure will increase as the 1986 National Assembly elections approach. Camdessus is viewed by friends as likable, able, and tactful. Critics consider him a Socialist lackey who will continue the damage done to the economy. Camdessuss career got its major boost in 1982, when he was made the top man in the Treasury, and following that when he co-authored the countrys stern austerity program. Camdessu differs from most French civil sevants in that he has no ill feelings against Americans. Now he must boost international faith in the franc while observing the Socialists tight schedule for economic improvement.

Business Week, Oct. 13, 86. Two candidates for the position of managing director of the IMF promote quite different approaches to world economic problems. H. Onno Ruding, finance minister of The Netherlands, is a staunch consevative who favors qusterity policies as a price for debtor natio loan bailouts. Michel Camdessus, governor of the Banqu de France, favors a policy of encouraging growth in debtor nations. The US is neutral in the contest, and the administration hopes that it wont have to get into the fight.

Business Week, Oct. 5, 87. Michel J. Camdessus, the managing director of the IMF since Jan, has helped soften the IMFs stern image among Third World debtor nations by emphasizing growth-oriented policies rather than austerity. Debtors will see whether Camdessuss attitude is more than skin-deep at the annual IMF and World Bank meetings in Washinton, which begin aon Sept. 29. His package to rescue the poorest countries of Africa ... is a sign of his efforts on behalf of debtor countries.

UN Chronicle. v. 26, Dec. 89. At the 44th annual meeting of the board of governors of the IMF and the WB, which was held in Washington on Sept 21-28, members proposed that IMF reserve funds be increased by as much as 67 %, or $80 billion, by the end of the year. Officials stated that the increase would be earmarked to meet the needs of the expanding world economy, particularly the integration of Eastern European markets, and to provide a cushion for possible economic crises in the 1990s. .... The governors also discussed the management of the world debt situation and recent initiatives that have been implemented to help heavily indebted middle-income countries.

Macleans v. 103, May 21, 90. Canadian finance minister Michael Wilson has endured increasing criticism at home over rising interest rates ... but he received praise for his role as this years chairman of th IMF interim committee. The committee, in effect the IMFs governing body, meets every spring to set policies. In this years meeting, Wilson used a strategy privately described as ranging from strong-arm tactics to subtle persuasion to convince the US, the EC and developing countries to reconsider some of their most strongly held views. He managed a compromise, for example, over the issue of increasing the funds total reserves. US treasury secretary N Brady had advocated an increase cap of 35 %, while IMF chairman M Camdessus supported a 100% increase. Wilson managed to achieve a general consensus of a 50
% increase to 208 billion.

Business Week. May 4, 92. According to US officials, disagreements are increasing betweeen Western governments and aid officials over the cost of rebuilding the republics of the Soviet Union. M Camdessus ... painting a dire economic picture of the region in hopes of obtaining as much funding as possible. The IMF calculates that the cost of the overhaul could total $145 billion over 4 years, a figure that far exceeds the Grooup of Sevens $24 B aid and loan package. Camdessus also wants the West to help all 15 former Soviet republics, but Western leaders are reluctant to do so...

Vital Speeches of the Day. v. 60, Nov. 1, 93. In a speech before the board of governors of the IMF , the Managing Director of the fund assesses the current world economic situation and offers economic policy recommendation to both industrialized and developing countries. He calls on the industrial countries to refocus their mix of trade, structural, fiscal, and monetary policies; emphasizes the importance of strengthening the international monetary system; and exhorts the fund to strengthen its role in promotin global economic cooperation.

Forbes v. 155, Mar. 13, 95. Although the agencys early-warning system completely f

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:27 - ID#333131)
Camdessus from 95 to present
Forbes v. 155, Mar. 13, 95. Although the agencys early-warning system completely failed to detect trouble in Mexicos financial markets, the IMF did not take long to wake up. IMF managing director Camdessus was quick to spin a tale to justify more money and more power for the monetary body, a vision supported by Treasury Secretary Rubin. Despite the rhetoric about saving the international fianacial sustem from a meltdown, however, the truth is that the IMF will be bailing out investors - primarily Americans - who have speculated in Mexican stocks and bonds. It is time to closely examine the operations of the IMF, since for all of its posturing as the savior of free markets, the agency is nothing more than as interventionist monster engaging in the socialization of risks. It is time to let investors assume their own risks for a change.

The Unesco Courier. v. 48, Oct. 95. Camdessus writes:  During the last 50 years, numerous changes in the world economy have had as impact on the work of the IMF. Such developments have been reflected in each of the IMFs major areas of activity. First, in the provision of financial assistance, tha aimf has concentrated its financing operations on developing countries in transition. It has also introduced new financing facilities operating in a more flexible framework. Second the IMF has adapted its role int the exchange rate system, taking responsibility for exercising firm surveillance over the exchange rate policies of members. Third, the IMF provides technical assistance to member governments in its areas of expertise, including fiscal policy, central banking and monetary policy, and economic statistics.

New York Times Apr. 2, 96. M Camdessus is one of Washigtons least-known but most powerful people. Camdessus is head of the IMF, which recently gave a lift to Boris Yeltsins presidential campaign when it approved a $10.2 B loan to Russia last Tuesday. The monetary fund is not supposed to take sides in elections, but the loan deal was driven by the Wests desire to impede the comeback of the commmunist Party in Russia.

New York Times Aug. 11, 97.  World Bank president James Wolfensohn and IMF managing director M Camdessus recently announced that for the first time they would use their pull with poorer nations to eradicate corruption and to promote better governance. The decision means that both institutions have had to reinterpret requirements in their owm bylaws that all lending should have its basis in econmic considerations alone and should not take into accounta countrys politics.

Golden Boy
(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:27 - ID#430233)
Explained that way, it's reasonable then that the price of gold and gold mining shares will go up and possibly very soon. The thing that I see is that are so many unknowns in the equation. If it was only that stocks as assets were too high priced ( and many would argue that for every high flying stock there are 10 that have been in a major funk for months ) and there was too much money out there not knowing where to go then possibly gold would go up, but all the unknowns are what give investors and traders so much angst.

Golden Boy
(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:32 - ID#430233)
This is a very good point and one that needs to be looked at closely IMO to determine future gold prices or for that matter the prices of any other assets, especially when the Asians have been such large purchasers of gold in the past. If they have lots then they all of a sudden have an asset that they can sell to raise paper money that in turn can be used to pay off their personal debts. If this happens and they remain net sellers rather than net buyers of gold wouldn't prices continue to be under pressure for a long time?

Spud Master
(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:35 - ID#273112)
EB, do you ***************really****************** expect Greenspan, Rubin or their ilk to tell We the Little People, The Sheep, The Cattle, The Great Unwashed ( to their thinking, of course ) anything CLOSE to the truth? Cough. "If the Party says two plus two equals five, Winston..."

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:38 - ID#26793)
In any country that experiences devaluation of their currency the result is price deflation of things traditionally bought on credit such as homes, cars, office buildings, factories. Those are the things that count in life and which we think of when deciding our net worth.

Things that are imported and can not be produced locally would go up in price. That is the experience in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan and Korea right now. From the standpoint of gold, it is purchasing more in each of those countries at this time. It takes fewer ounces of gold to buy an office building today in any country on that list than it did 5 years ago.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:40 - ID#287277)
Carl, many thanks for bringing Camdessus forward
As I've posted before, A Team worked diligently to dump "C",
but he managed to 'convince' African leaders to vote for
him. In my Dr. Pangloss guise, I can assert, "That's good,
because when the moment comes, he'll be among the first to go...

You've given a good description of one of our players.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:40 - ID#31868)
Golden Boy
Japan for instance has seen an increase in gold purchases with higher prices and premiums as many have pointed out here.

The trillions around the globe looking for a home would easily buy all above ground gold. In a flash the gold be gone.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:42 - ID#322308)
precious metals
Forget gold for a while, look at SILVER.
Goldprices are still under pressure from central bank sales
and again and again it brings a negative sentiment in the market.
It looks like silver is much more attractive at the moment.
An American fund has find itself a new toy and prices above the $ 6.-
are not onlikely before the end of the year.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:43 - ID#35767)
Golden Boy
In the countries that have suffered currency devalution gold has done well vis avis their currency. Is it your experience that people by more or less of something when it does well. If anything the currency crisis should arguably increase gold demand. They also know the US dollar is just more paper. If the situation gets really bad sell US treasuries as there is the most liquid market in the world.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:44 - ID#26793)
Bullion Depositories

U.S. BULLION DEPOSITORY, Fort Knox, KY: The site for this installation was
formerly a part of the Fort Knox military reservation that was deeded to the Treasury
Department. The Depository, completed in 1936, is a principal storage place for United
States stocks of gold bullion.

U.S. BULLION DEPOSITORY, West Point, NY: This structure, completed and
occupied in 1938, is situated on a four-acre tract of land formerly a part of the West
Point Military Reservation which was deeded to the Treasury Department. It was
erected primarily as a silver storage facility. Now, by authorization of the Congress,
coinage operations are carried on at this installation as needed. This includes domestic
and foreign coinage and special commemorative coinage, as directed.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:45 - ID#194311)
Is US$608 billion a lot of bad loans?..Numbers mean nothing anymore.
Japanese banks' unrecoverable loans reach 79 trillion yen: report

TOKYO, Dec 6 ( AFP ) - Unrecoverable loans held by Japanese banks
have reached 79 trillion yen ( 608 billion dollars ) , boosting fears
that some banks would be forced to slash their capital, the Nihon
Keizai Shimbun said Saturday.
The finance ministry and the Bank of Japan calculated the
figure, which accounts for 14 percent of all money loaned, the
business newspaper said.
The amount is about 3.1 times more than the value of officially
announced non-performing loans at the end of March, the daily said.
Nihon Keizai commented that some Japanese banks would be forced
to reduce their capital "considerably" under a weight of bad loans,
which had expanded since the end of the "bubble" speculative economy
of the late 1980s.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:47 - ID#194311)
Tsunami wave building...
Ruling party seeks sale of foreign reserves to back Japanese banks

TOKYO, Dec 7 ( AFP ) - A policy maker of Japan's ruling party on
Sunday called for the use of Japan's foreign reserves to generate
funds for troubled Japanese banks suffering from a decline in market
"Foreign reserves ... can be used to strengthen their
operations," Taku Yamazaki, chairman of the Liberal Democratic
Party's ( LDP's ) policy affairs research council, was quoted by Jiji
Press as telling reporters.
The LDP is expected to encourage the sale of the government's
foreign assets such as US treasury department securities to help
domestic banks which are under pressure from the so-called Japan
premium, the extra interest Japanese banks are charged by overseas
lenders, Jiji said.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:48 - ID#26793)
Bio: Michel Camdessus

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:49 - ID#35767)
CORRECTION the gold market is under pressure from high loan demand for gold which is being supplied by CBs to producers and speculative shorts. The actual CB sales are of little effect except to induce more frantic borrowing and shorting. The borrowing dwaefs any CB selling or for that matter buying. The CB annoucements about sales are used by the specs to drive the price down and induce more hedging/borrowing. The gold lease rate is falling indicating less loan demand. Maybe the forward selling is about through as at these levels it is almost at a loss. Further, many company's are now at the limit of the amount they can hedge.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:53 - ID#26793)
Camdessus position on IMF gold sales (Sept. 1996)

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:56 - ID#390214)
Ted Arnold & Smith attacking again(
"A short covering rally is not the end of the bear market,"

Mr Arnold says. "Indeed, next year we would not be at

all surprised to see $US250/oz touched."

However, "we do believe that much of the damage is

already in the stocks," said a hopeful Mr Cohen. But he

also says: "The lowest we could see the gold price going

is to around $US260/oz, roughly equal to the average

cash cost of production."

At such a price, he says, gold would be trading with

virtually no premium for the role it has held for thousands

of years as a value store against unexpected inflation,

economic crisis and political instability.

Others are not so sure if gold should have this premium at

all. Analysts such as Mr Arnold and Andy Smith of UBS

in London suggest gold is losing much of its monetary

status and hence its price premium should disappear.

Mr Smith argues that what happened to silver in the latter

19th century is now happening to gold. Silver was

demonetised between 1870 and 1900. It then lost 65 per

cent of its value as European central banks liquidated

their silver holdings.

Although the history of gold and silver may not be

parallel, there are silver linings in gold's demonetisation,

says Mr Smith.

Gold is becoming more of a commodity every day in this

"inflationless", globalised economy, they say. And like

any commodity with such a massive stock overhang,

prices must fall to bring balance back to the market.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 15:57 - ID#194311)
IMF in Korea...10 days too late?
South Korean financial crisis deepens despite IMF bailout

SEOUL, Dec 7 ( AFP ) - South Korea on Sunday faced the prospect of
a deepening financial crisis and a new wave of corporate failures
following the back-to-back collapses of the Halla Group and a major
securities company.
President Kim Young-Sam hurriedly summoned a cabinet session for
Monday amid warnings that the failure of Halla, the country's
12th-largest conglomerate, heralded a new bout of insolvencies.
Analysts said the credit crunch had not eased but intensified
after the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) agreed last week to
extend its biggest-ever bailout to South Korea.
The IMF on Saturday transferred 5.2 billion dollars in standby
loans, the first tranche of its total bailout of some 60 billion
dollars, into a central Bank of Korea ( BOK ) account in New York.
Analysts said Halla's failure Saturday would aggravate a crisis
among tottering financial institutions already hammered by the
insolvency Friday of Coryo Securities and Investment Co., the
country's eighth largest securities house.
"Halla's financial situation deterioriated as merchant banks
began collecting loans in the wake of the recent financial turmoil,"
Shin Uk-Hyun, a senior Korea Exhange Bank official, told the Korea
Before the agreement on IMF rescue funds, foreign-exchange woes
had mostly pushed financial institutions into external bankruptcy.
But the problem now is a crunch in the won, with money
circulation paralysed since South Korea suspended operations at nine
merchant banks last week.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:00 - ID#26793)
Camdessus powerless without the votes of his American backers

(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:02 - ID#426220)
Dec 5 - TOKYO:

Per Shuji Karasawa of the Japanese parliament: Japanese gold holdings are far too low

Dec 5 - TOKYO:

Per Head of Japanese LDP: US Dollar dependence too great, we need more gold to offset excessive Dollar dependence.

Financial Fairy-tale or Expedient Global Monetary Necessity: Global Gold Standard?! STARTLING IMF data demonstrate its feasibility. BOJs T-Bond holdings is the keystone for success. Japan would need to buy many tonnes of GOLD. EMU member participation essential.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:07 - ID#287277)
Nomercy@15:21, deflation/inflation
From a site posted by sharefin this morning:

"A curious price phenomenon could arise in big service economies such as the US and UK. Tight labour markets, rising wages and low productivity gains could result in inflation in services while manufacturing is hit by deflation. Monetary authorities might raise interest rates to squeeze out service-sector inflation and thereby exacerbate The greatest danger is that governments raise interest rates rather than lowering them."

There are 3 articles well worth reading ( at least 3 ) !
You'll have to take a few minutes to register, but this publication
offers Americans 'another view'...Hope this helps.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:08 - ID#194311)
Sounds bad in Korea
Reading this last article I would suspect that their financial system is locking up solid....I believe we are witnessing a systemic failure of the world's 11th largest economy's liquidity system.

Even if the underLYING economy is sound...who cares anymore?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:13 - ID#22956)
Spudmiester - You have a good backhand...doh!

What I was referring to was the CB's selling gold. Not the dirty-oily people who call themselves politicians. And I don't think that the balanced budget ( thing ) that SDRer asked me about has much to do with the current ( and I mean CURRENT ) state of Gold. There is an agenda here and all here are trying to figure it out. I don't know what it is, YET. We will find out though. Some have said here that gold has 'uncoupled' itself from the other PM's. I agree, I agree, I agree. Gold is a dog on MANY peoples minds and on paper ( no pun intended ) . It is being 'treated' unfairly. It will act like a whooped dog and roll over for me to rub it's belly ( right now ) . I LOVE gold and think that gold should be priced higher than it is right now. I have stated this many times before. I will be LONGER than many here ( or maybe not;- ) ) when the time is right. And I will have more 'dry powder' too. Gold will get to 400oz some day. But I will NEVER estimate the time frame for that move. Now I'm rambling and it's time to go.....



Golden Boy
(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:22 - ID#430233)
My argument is that once the currency is devalued it's too late to convert it into gold and since gold is worth relatively more it encourges people who own gold to sell it to buy other assets or pay off debts. Someone here mentioned that you need fewer oz of gold to buy an office building in Japan that a few years ago. That's my point: sell gold to buy other things of value or pay off depts especially if inrerst rates are sky high. As far as the question of whether more things are bought in good times than bad I think the answer is clearly that people buy more in good times. When times are bad people sell whatever assets they have to survive. Sure, if people are migrating they may sell whatever they have and buy gold so that they can convert the gold into currency or use it as a means of exchange for other assets such as farm land, homes, factories, whatever.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:23 - ID#31868)
Off topic for a moment. Anyone familiar with they have an operating system and I was curious if any of you know about it. Some computer people I know think it is excellent.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:31 - ID#225283)


(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:32 - ID#20137)
Nice announcement for Dec 7th
Date: Sun Dec 07 1997 15:45
kiwi ( Is US$608 billion a lot of bad loans?..Numbers mean nothing anymore. ) ID#194311:
Japanese banks' unrecoverable loans reach 79 trillion yen

Date: Sun Dec 07 1997 15:47
kiwi ( Tsunami wave building... ) ID#194311:
TOKYO, Dec 7 ( AFP ) -
Sunday Taku Yamazaki, chairman of the Liberal Democratic
Party's ( LDP's ) .
The LDP is expected to encourage the sale of the government's
foreign assets such as US treasury department securities to help domestic banks which are under pressure from the so-called Japan premium, the extra interest Japanese banks are charged by overseas
lenders, Jiji said.

My comments:
If they go through with this, it will be bigger than the last attach ( not really appropriate word ) . Except this time we had ample warning and we have done it to ourselves.

Japan is NOT reacting to the problem correctly, TALK, TALK, ... they have no time left.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:41 - ID#22956)
Cherokee - YES...I remember you talking puts on the Euro. That was a good call and I hope you made some gooood money. You have the to open your hand??!?

ssstthhp!----------whock!--------- ( open hand ) -----impressive...!

We had that nice move due to the tight channel it has been in AND the STRONG US$...right?? It is good to be carrying US$ wherever you are. AT THIS MOMENT..... not come undone here because I realize that things can and most likely DO change ( change is the ONLY constant ) . The Buck ( US$ ) will go down and the cycle will continue....sorry for the repetition. I just love cycles. Which reminds me, Nick I have yet to study your cycle looking forward. JTF, I just now saw the other day where you dumped your XAU puts because I did.....hmmmmmmm.....I hope you don't make that same mistake ( doing what I do ) more than once....or twice;- ) be humbled by the woman I love....oh my...they can do these things and we are HELPLESS to it......go gold...go Ted...go lakers...


Quote-Boy - You can quote me ANYtime.....I owe you a few coldies....or a Lexus, I just don't know how generous I'll be yet ( grin ) . Thanks for removing the obstacles in my way. I can see MUCH more clearly now, the rain is gone ( for now ) .....oh gonna be a bright, bright , sunshiny day..........$$$

(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:44 - ID#20137)
Date: Sun Dec 07 1997 16:23
tolerant1 ( all ) ID#31868:

I haven't really kept close tabs on BE. BUT, I have nothing but the highest reagards to Glasse' ( sp ) their president/CEO. He was the one shining star at apple before they chose that IDIOT Spindler. Glasse' is technically strong and market aware. He has vision, courage, charisma ... . HE WAS THE CHOICE that could have saved APPLE. ( IMHO )

As for the present BE OS, I believe it is probably the best going.

The problem is BE needed a deep pocket strong base to sell from. APPLE even before the DUMB NEXT deal could have worked for both. THE then president couldn't see past his own importance to realize that Glasse was worth the price alone, much less capturing the BE technology for the same price.

Now I wonder? BE was to be moving their operating system to intel platforms. I am sure that they could accomplish that maneuber. I am not sure that they can find anyone that will fight the gates machine with any possibility of success.

Just my guess. ( IMHO )

(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:44 - ID#194311)
For Quality...Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance.
"Quality" investments seen most attractive after Asia crisis:

PARIS, Dec 7 ( AFP ) - Investors are likely to focus on quality
investment of their funds following the Southeast Asian financial
crisis and recent volatility in major stock markets, the OECD said
"A flight to quality was observable following the confidence
crisis in Asia and significant corrections in world stock markets,"
the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a
report on financial market trends.
This search for quality "may persist until investors' confidence
has been restored," the report said.
International financing activity had been headed for a record
year in 1997, but this may not happen if the Asian financial crisis
and stock market volatility lead to "a sharp retrenchment in the
final quarter," the report said.
In the first nine months of the year, money raised on
international capital markets by emerging economies soared 69.8
percent from the same period a year earlier to 155.4 billion dollars
from 91.5 billion.
Financing in OECD countries meanwhile rose 11.1 percent, to
1,164.7 billion dollars from 1,048.5 billion.
The total volume of gross financing arranged on international
markets rose 14.6 percent in the nine months to September to 1,364.7
nillion dollars from 1,174.8 billion in the same period of 1996.
The United States was top of the list with 353.7 billion
dollars, followed by Germany at 166.6 billion and Britain with 129
International stock market investment also rose sharply in the
first nine months of the year, up 36 percent to 53.6 billion dollars
from 39.4 billion a year earlier, the report said.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:49 - ID#333131)
SDRer and Donald on Camdessus and IMF
I gently submit that we're missing the forest for the trees. Take in the history of IMF intervention and the recents posts this afternoon and assume for the sake of argument that Camdessus, despite being a nice guy, is a socialist planner, has an agenda and is smart as a fox. The history is that the IMF is never able head off any crisis and always needs more money and power than it previously had when a crisis occurs. What we have here, I'm afraid, is a fox that is intent on feeding off the very problems that it always says it guards against. The more damage that's done, the more power and money that is needed to fix that one and "prevent" the next one. But of course, the next one can't be dealt with when it occurs because more was needed than what was provided. It's a hell of a strategy and Rubin and Greenspan, intentionally or not, seem to have gone along and are now leading the charge.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:51 - ID#22956)
..................TA Trader's Dream.................
Cherokee - Check this out. go to March Euro ( select daily ) Look at the beautiful pennant it formed to the two day narrowing at the end?

Excellent ( ! ) .....oh seer... the charts


(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:55 - ID#31868)
Thanks, I have been looking over their web site and it seems interesting. A friend told me about it and I have spoken with several other people that think highly of it. I hope you are still on the mend and feeling better.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 16:56 - ID#315256)
Investor sentiment

Sunday December 7, 2:12 pm Eastern Time

WALL ST WEEK AHEAD - Investors look closer to home

By Huw Jones

NEW YORK, Dec 7 ( Reuters ) - Investors this week will scour headlines for more company profit warnings as
their attention switches from Asia's money woes back to still-booming U.S. finances.

``We have to start worrying about earnings pre-announcements coming up not just this week but in the next several
weeks,'' said Guy Truicko, portfolio manager at Unity Management.

A clutch of warnings from technology companies last week roiled the influential high-tech sector.

Analysts say the economy will slow next year due to the domino effect of Asian financial woes on sales of
American companies.

This, along with little expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when it meets on Dec. 16, helped
stocks sail through Friday's stunning surge in November payrolls which sent bonds into a tailspin.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 98.97 points to end at 8,149.13 Friday, for the week, the average rose
326 points, a 4.2 percent gain.

``There is no nervousness about the Fed because it cannot make a move here with emerging markets, especially
Asia, continuing to be fragile,'' said Scott Bleier, chief investment strategist at Prime Charter Ltd.

Inflation is already tame and key commodity and oil prices are falling even further, analysts noted.

Investor jitters over Asia's financial problems were soothed last week when stocks rebounded in Hong Kong and
South Korea after the latter signed a $57 billion rescue package with the International Monetary Fund to bolster its

But investors will keep an eye out for Japan's own rescue package being unveiled Wednesday.

``Whispers from those with connections to the Japanese government indicate that the plan will be something far
less than bold,'' said Bill Meehan, chief market analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald.

``Another disappointment from the Japanese bureaucrats could prove to be a major stumbling block,'' he said.

Large company stocks have pushed smaller upstarts to the sidelines, as money pours into equities during the
traditional, end of year buying spree, analysts said.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index of larger companies closed at a record high of 983.79 Friday.

Mutual funds putting money to work, easing worries over Asia, and no rate hike seen on the horizon, boosted
stocks in spite of earnings warnings and soaring payrolls.

After absorbing Friday's payroll data, this week should be an easier ride on the economic news front.

Wholesale inventories for October are due Wednesday, followed by retail sales for November on Thursday.
Producer prices for November are due on Friday.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 17:01 - ID#31868)
Thanks to you also for the input. You should go and check out their web site. They seem to have many things on the move.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 17:03 - ID#31868)
Yeah, but Mr. C could always catch a flight on a plane with bad instruments. CIA travel agent to the stars.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 17:14 - ID#31868)
Sunday December 7, 9:09 am Eastern Time

Lonrho preparing bid for JCI -papers

LONDON, Dec 7 ( Reuters ) - UK-based mining and African trading group Lonrho Plc was preparing for a 450 million stg bid for JCI Ltd ( JHNL.J ) , the South African mining group, the Sunday Telegraph said.

The Sunday Times also reported a bid was in the offing and that Deutsche Morgan Grenfell was advising Lonrho and SBC Warburg was advising JCI.

Lonrho and JCI had held merger talks earlier this year.

The Sunday Telegraph said Lonrho was though to have made an informal approach to JCI, but an announcement of a deal was not imminent.

No one at Lonrho was available to comment on the reports.

The Sunday Telegraph also said rumours in Johannesburg suggested that Lonrho had grown tired of its ongoing discussions with JCI and was keen to set a quick end to the affair.

It said Lonrho would finance a bid for JCI from the imminent sale of its luxury Princess hotel chain, worth about 250 million stg, and its other financial resources.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 17:16 - ID#215208)
Gold price is not low!
Guess what? As I suspected, the price of gold is not down. It has held relatively constant +/-2% since Q1 '96. As some of you might recall, I was interested in developing a chart for gold price in the currency of gold buyers, weighted by their share of the gold market. As it happens, the World Gold Council has already done this. Check out the following link.

Our problem is that the US dollar is historically very strong relative to the currencies or the other gold buyers. Thus only in US dollar terms, and in other currencies that tend to move with the US dollar, is gold really historically "cheap".

And who are the gold buying countries? The WGC deals with this as well.

For a better regional breakdown, try these links ( developed and developing markets ) .

As you will see from the regional charts, India is the largest buyer, followed by SE Asia, then China. The US and Europe are 4th and 5th. Now look at the currencies of major buyers like India, S. Korea, Thailand, Japan, Taiwan. Especially look at the action in November and December.

Is it starting to make sense? Is it any surprise that gold is at record lows ( $US ) and the drop is accelerating?

Yes, of course this is not the whole story. Demand is increasing, at least according to the WGC. And, on the supply side, we have three factors:

1. Shorts, loans, and forward sales that have to be unraveled.

2. Producers costs are under pressure, as weakness of many producer currencies have not kept pace with the drop in the price of gold. Mines closing, etc.

3. Potential additional CB selling.

Nevertheless, the currency and exchange rate issue is perhaps the major factor affecting gold price in the near term. Don't expect gold to rally until the US dollar begins to weaken. I don't see this happening until the Asian situation starts to stabilize. EB is a currency trader. Perhaps this explains his good predictions re: gold price movements.

Hope you all find this useful.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 17:21 - ID#28098)
Carl@16:49, I think you're right...
I believe that the battle of the titan's is about to begin...

For the first time, one is beginning to read thoughtful articles
about the IMF "getting it all wrong" ( Sharefin posted at least
one of these, I've come across several others )

Kiwi just posted something about 680 billion, or some such number,
with the comment that "the numbers don't mean anything anymore."

The "A" Group, the men who saw the inevitable disaster awaiting mankind
when the key currency was divorced from a value standard, know that
spiral of faster roll-over for higher yield is precisely what some
shocked Japanese banker called it, "An atomic bomb..."

If they are to save anything of the system, they know they must
have a non-hegemonic global currency of account backed by an
accepted benchmark of value.

Camdessus is yesterday and today. Hopefully he will not be a party
to our future.

Donald, I wanted to especially thank you for the post on
Rubin/Greenspan/Camdessus; tracking the battles is a 'battle'!

(Sun Dec 07 1997 17:29 - ID#411149)
silver trade
tolerant1- I liked your idea of looking at silver stocks for appreciation while gold ain't doin nothin but tryin to find a bottom in a bed of quicksand. My ultimate goal is to load up on gold stocks in the next 4-6 mos that have the potential of 50+ but in the interum I thought about a possible trade with some of the silvers. Spent some time this PM tryin
to decide which ones and came to no positive conclusion. Lookin at Friday's action with silver up 12 cents. SSRIF was DOWN 18cents or 4.8%,
PAASF was up 62.5cents or 7+%, ASM was unch and is so thinly traded it was not a candidate for me and then lookin at FSR up 8cents to C$1.20
and also thinly traded. I might have to just wait.

I might mention that I already have positions in SSRIF and PAASF. SSRIF is down and PAASF is up a bunch, nearly a double. But I was lookin for new positions now.

As far as predictions as to when the gold bull will start I have talked to some well informed people [including a close daily contact with Frank Venereso]and their opinions range from March-April '98 area to mid year '98. One well informed opinion says $500+ by August '98. I like the statement by Jim Dines, "you got to be in to win".

One plan that I have thought of for new additions to gold stock positions is buy 1/3 now during tax selling season, 1/3 April-June period and 1/3 for if we get that real spike down. If you read the Barrons article about the beatin the Robertson Stevens Contrarion fund has taken, Stevens comments that "he might have been early but he does not think he is wrong about gold stocks goin up". I would have to agree with that!

Tally Ho

(Sun Dec 07 1997 17:41 - ID#26669)
DJ re 17:16 post
Thanks for the links.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 17:43 - ID#26793)
I thought that article was a nice find too. The drumbeat of bad news is starting to intensify. I have never seen so many signs of financial catastrophe as in the past few weeks. I was posting about Korean problems back in June and received the "technicolor yawn" from everyone; even here at Kitco ( except WSF ) . Now in just a few short days it seems that Korea news is front page; even in my local newspaper. The world is about to change in a way that even those of us who expect the worst can not imagine.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 17:46 - ID#31868)
If you have not already done so you should go to gold-eagle and look at the GOLDBUG listed there. Scroll to the bottom of his articles and you can read previous items.

Excellent coverage of silver stocks there. I also get his newsletter and have found it to be an excellent source of information.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 17:49 - ID#28098)
DJ: Very helpful sites! Thanks.

We all tend to overlook the fact that, in a short time, the European currencies are slated to be devalued. It is not, of course, called that; but, in reality the Germans, e.g., will have their beloved DM cut in half ( FT, Road to EMU ) .

When we fit that piece of the puzzle in, doesnt the Grand Design become much clearer. Greshams Law may still be working just fine, thank you.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 17:54 - ID#26793)
Market Prices
Beautiful New Zealand, first country to trade this week, is opening in the red down .17%. Sell your stocks NZ, buy gold with the proceeds.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 17:54 - ID#26669)
DJ re 17:16 post
Thanks for the links.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 17:58 - ID#215208)
Currency info
Does anyone have a link to daily currency exchange info, which includes all the countries that buy gold?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 18:01 - ID#26793)
@DJ: Try this gold and silver are two of the "currencies" scroll to bottom

(Sun Dec 07 1997 18:11 - ID#432157)
Enjoy your post;thankyou,but would appreciate more details as to why Ag at 500.00 by mid 98.Plan to but KINROSS deb. ( K.db-TSE ) next week,wondering if anybody has more detalis Yield is about 11.%
Commenta always appreciated.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 18:17 - ID#31868)
I just finished the Early December issue of the Privateer. It is an excellent read. I suggest a trip to their web site. Indeed. Excellent.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 18:29 - ID#267298)
Rea Gold
I own a few thousand Rea Gold shares, not worth much today, I think
they closed Friday on the TSE @ 0.14 Cdn. I am hoping someone
might offer their opinion as to how long Rea can "hang in there" if we
don't soon see an increase in the PGO? Any thoughts re: Rea will
be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 18:30 - ID#31868)
all, some thoughts on gold here for those of you that did not see this.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 18:42 - ID#344308)

yes sir, seems as this group ( your url ) , considers gold and silver
as enough of a store of value to list it where the current taskmasters
say it should not be. they must know what is written here each day....

gold and silver float above the fiats foamy froth that suffocates
all that is attached to it. we have 'aqualung ( s ) '---jethro tull-

how many days and counting?

cherokee!; ) --lookin-@elnino--through-the-window-------

(Sun Dec 07 1997 18:44 - ID#411149)
tolerant1- thanks for the suggestion, however that is exactly what I did to start my research for the day. Nothin the matter with silver stocks but the catcher for me is to get into those 50+ potential gold stocks at the right time. As for Sir Cormier's article I have already done exactly as he suggested last summer and will enjoy the ride UP on those stocks but I was lookin for an in and out trade. Probably what I will do at the proper time [yet to be determined] is to sell those silver purchases and buy more gold stocks. But new entries in silver stocks for me is still in question.

Tally Ho

(Sun Dec 07 1997 18:45 - ID#60253)
Will we have Deja-vu again?

Some people have followed the gold market from 1970. Some

have followed it all their lives, depending on when you were

born. Some say they were right, as the market has fallen and

they held no gold. They council from experience and a short


But, some have traded gold from times before.

Those who trade with the sun know we will never have

Deja-Vu again. This market is unlike anything from the past.

And those with a short life of investing will learn from this

coming future as gold will show their knowledge was limited

to where they stood on the mountain!

Unlike the past, this market has an end. And this end will not

be for those who have waited to buy! They see this bottom

at $100 or $200 or $250, and they will buy at the turn as no

fool should have held from $360! But, I say they will buy only

paper if lucky!

All should make ready and be holding metal only, as the turn

will move $100+ the first day and $200 the second day as

comex is closed! It will trade no more from the 3rd day on!

The gold market of your youth will be no more! For those

who were smart from experience not to buy at $400, will

look at $600 as the deal of a lifetime.

To close,

Try to live in this outcome and see how different the world

will be. It will not be the end of all things, only the changing

of most things in western thought. The Digital Currencies

will still trade, but we will value them as not before.

Anyone who has sold gold they do not have will not be

allowed to cover that position. Anyone who has brought gold

they do not have will not be allowed to cover that position.

Many will lose all they have in a world without honor! Looking

back , one will ask, how could I have thought that noone

wanted gold, when more of it was being brought than existed?

Indeed, more gold than exists or will be produced in the next

ten years! And some say, only a fool would say the market

was cornered.

During that time, a gold stock in the hand will not trade on

an open market! And the government of the country, of the

land, of the mine, will no doubt speak with you of new taxes

on GOLD!

A year has passed as the winds of change have started to

blow. Waste no more time on paper gold, you have suffered

enough. Play paper games no more, as the future of your

family waits a decision.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 18:52 - ID#411149)
geoff-as to Au $500 by mid 98. That was an opinion of one of the so called well informed and I do not know his plan as to why. Now my

Tally Ho

(Sun Dec 07 1997 18:58 - ID#315256)
T Bond sale would be bad for Japan, not U.S..... M.I.T. Economist says

Sunday December 7, 6:36 pm Eastern Time

Japan T-bond sale bad for Japan, not US -Dornbusch

TOKYO, Dec 8 ( Reuters ) - If Japanese firms repatriated holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to help cover losses at
home it would create a problem for Japan, not the United States, Massachusetts Institute of Techonology
economist Rudiger Dornbusch said on Monday.

``It is not a problem for the U.S., it's a problem for Japan, because if they want their money back, then our
Treasury will hold interest rates constant, that means we issue the money to pay the Japanese, as we issue the
money, the dollar goes down, the yen goes up and Japan will die,'' Dornbusch told Reuters Financial Television.

Dornbusch said if Japan took its money back the higher yen would hurt Japan's trade industries and would create
an extra problem for Japan's already recessionary economy.

``And it won't be the first time, it won't be the last time. But it is not a U.S. problem by any stretch of the
imagination,'' he said.

Asked to what level authorities would allow the yen to fall, Dornbusch said the next point for the yen was probably
140 yen to the U.S. dollar, since exports are Japan's great hope to get its economy back to life.

But he said that if Japan's renewed export drive added to the Asia-wide push for more exports to revive growth, it
would become a problem for the United States.

``We do not have an unlimited lust for current account deficits,'' Dornbusch said. ``Then Congressman ( Richard )
Gephardt is going to say, 'Lets have some protectionism,' and it all feeds back to Asia and it's really bad news for
the whole global economy,'' he added.

He said Japan's banking system was in very bad shape and it was imperative to put in money in place of bad loans,
``so that banks can start lending again, instead of stumbling around in the countryside.''

Dornbusch said the best way for Japan to do this was to print money.

``Japan has a recession, Japan has deflation, printing money is what God ordered at this time,'' he said.

He said Tokyo needed to ``flush the market with money,'' as there was little risk to such moves in a deflationary

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's ( LDP ) financial stabilisation measures, expected next week, are unlikely to
totally clean up the banking system, Dornbusch said.

``There is a suspicion of $600 billion of bad debts, and that's serious money,'' he said. ``It would mean do
something big, but likely we are going to get something that keeps the numbers down, solves the dead ones, and
therefore leaves it open for the next ones to come.''

Dornbusch is in Tokyo to attend an international symposium on the stablisation of the Asian financial system.

On Sunday, LDP policy research chairman Taku Yamasaki was quoted as saying that even if the yen were to rise
as a result of Japanese U.S. Treasury bond sales, there would be little negative impact as the yen is already weaker
than it should be.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 18:59 - ID#210114)
Happy Pearl Habor Day!!
My best wishes to all those Americans on this chat line.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 18:59 - ID#28098)
A. Goose, Tolerant1, Interested Others
I found this brief 'interview jottings' quite compelling.
I believe our Japanese friends will emerge from this in
much better shape than we...

Why Japan's business lite demands radical reform
Robert Pringle
From Central Banking, Volume VIII Number 2, Autumn 1997

What I thought would serve the reader's interests best would be to present merely a series of jottings, unencumbered by attempts at interpretation, on interviews conducted in Tokyo one sunny week in September, 1997.

September 8
Breakfast with Shoichiro Toyoda, chairman of Toyota Motor Corp, Kozo Uchida, Secretary General of Keidanren, and Kazuo Nukazawa, Senior Managing Director of Keidanren.

Lunch with Tadahiro Sekimoto, Chairman of NEC Corporation, the leading PC omputer manufacturer in Japan.

Interview with Hirotaro Higuchi, Chairman of the Financial System Committee and Asahi Breweries ( an official body inquiring into the working of the financial system in Japan )

Dinner with Nobuo Tateisi, Chairman of Omron Corporation and Seiichi Tsurumi, Japan Bankers Association

September 9
Breakfast with a senior politician from the Liberal Democratic Party.

September 10
Interview with a senior financial official

(Sun Dec 07 1997 19:12 - ID#31868)
The events unfolding around the globe show me no winners my friend. It may very well be that Japan and others come out better than the US, but there is going to be much suffering all the way around.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 19:13 - ID#20137)
Nice to hear form you again ANOTHER.
Certainly hope you are correct.

As for gold stocks, if they raise taxes my share will decrease but if it all goes as you say, it will still be a better investment than many another.

Also I will need some currency to buy the daily bread for my family. I will either sell portions of my gold for currency ( which I prefer not to do ) , or I have an option to sell my pm stocks and/or possibly use the currency dividends I will receive from my gold stocks.

Generally speaking, a portion of your net worth spread between various investments stands you in good stead. Even now, do you not hold more than gold? Various currencies at least along with your gold?

I hold gold, gold stocks, silver stocks, and currencies. Maybe not as bright as yourself and many others, but possibly brighter than some of the millions that are betting on the same o, same o that has been occuring on wall street.

I am but a modest goose, worried about the gosselings.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 19:32 - ID#31868)
Sunday December 7, 7:10 pm Eastern Time

TSE says suspends share trading of UBS, SBC

TOKYO, Dec 8 ( Reuters ) - The Tokyo Stock Exchange ( TSE ) said on Monday it was suspending trading of shares in Union Bank of Switzerland ( UBS ) ( SBGZ.S ) ( 8639.T ) and Swiss Bank Corp ( SBC ) ( SBVZn.S ) ( 8652.T ) for the entire trading day on Monday.

The TSE said the decision to suspend trade in the two issues was made because of unclear information about plans over a possible merger between the two banks.

The TSE did not elaborate further.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 19:38 - ID#215208)
Donald - Thanks. Just what I was looking for.

SDRer and 223 - You're welcome. Hope the analysis has value for you.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 19:39 - ID#31868)
Ruling party to consider selling U.S. bonds to aid banks
Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press

TOKYO ( December 7, 1997 6:41 p.m. EST ) -- Japan's governing party plans to look into selling some of the government's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to assist Japanese banks that are having trouble obtaining dollars, media reports said Sunday.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 19:44 - ID#348286)
Intrigueing comments. Even as a Goldbug, im not sure I will welcome the events that you say will occur. I believe that the best place for Gold is in private hands. If governments find themselves short, they will have to buy it on the market at the days price.
Of course, you are right that the current short positions would be next to impossible to cover in an exploding price environment.
Tough luck to the shorts that are finally caught in the squeeze, they and the institutions that service them will basically be insolvent.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 19:49 - ID#35767)
Our Redskins are SB bound. Wizards rein in NBA in the Premier Facility in the world Our Great MCI Arena in revamped chi chi area of downtown DC. I hope to meet IMF Camdesus for a beer at a game. Arena is walking distance from the FED ( a healthy walk down Constitution ) the IMF, the World Bank and the White House. Kitcoites should meet here for a Wizards Game at the expensive but trendy Velocity Grill in the Arena and see if we cant influence policy. New York Take a Hike!.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 19:56 - ID#26793)
Markets now trading
Korea and Japan down more than 1%, NZ and OZ up less than 1%

(Sun Dec 07 1997 19:57 - ID#298259)
DBog - Reo Gold
From Gold Stock Report, Aug-97 coverage ( last reported ) : As of today, the Bisset mine in Manitoba is technically in production. That is welcome news. The first gold is schedlued to be poured by July 31. Once running at full capacity, Bisset is set to produce 80,000 ounces per year. The San Gregorio mine in Uruguay produced at 94% of its scheduled monthly output in July. This mine began production in Jan and should produce 70,000 ounces annually once all the kinks are worked out. The new president, Ian Smith, is cleaning up the problems he inherited and turning things around. For those of you who own Rea Gold, hang in there, I think you'll witness a much better future than the past 14 mos. For those of you who don't own it, I recommend you purchase some shares. This is a company on the rebound.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 19:59 - ID#333303)
RAY: New entries in silver stocks
RAY: I doubt it is a good idea to get rid of silver stocks to buy gold stocks. A mix of them is the best approach. As for new entries in silver stocks. There are not too many candidates. The latest offering by Apex Silver ( SIL:Amex ) , George Soros silver play, is way overpriced when compared to Pan American Silver. As for the big 3 US play, Coeur, Hecla and Sunshine, they are out of the league for now for various reasons. My new entry this month is a small US company based in Utah. I am writing an new article for Gold-Eagle. It should be posted in the next week. CHeck it out!

(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:01 - ID#26793)
Kamchatka had a 4, 5 & 6 this evening/morning

(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:04 - ID#60253)
MoreGold and A. Goose,

We approach production costs, therefore we come to the end

of this game. This is not lost to the oil states. They, along

with three CBs are buying as this is written! The size of these

orders could make the turn? We will see by way of a flat price

over several weeks. If yes, then those with orders of a month

delivery are to late. We approach unsettled times.

cool lurk
(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:06 - ID#147100)
Billy, would you please hold that flashlight still! Damnit...I haven't done honest work since I watched my Dad paint the house...

Alan, You call this honest work!...hell, your robbin' a grave!...I thought Nixon was crazy... Are you sure old lady Lurk put some gold coins in that casket?

Jesus, Bill! How stupid do you think I am! Damn right...there's gold in them there casket!

Pop...Fizzzzz. Billy, what in the hell was that?

Bud light. Want one?

For God's sake, Bill...hell yes!

We're almost there. Just a little to Poppa...

(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:06 - ID#267298)
Rea Gold

Thanks much for your post.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:07 - ID#376309)
average price
the average price of gold for '96 was 387.9
so far this year the average price is 334.05!!

Silver in '96 was 5.19
this year 4.84

Platinum '96 - 397.32
so far this year - 397.58

palladium in '96 -128.12
so far in '97- 176.93

(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:09 - ID#411149)
December 3, 1997
Q&A with Bill Fleckenstein

Bill Fleckenstein is a market contrarian and a frequent guest on CNBC. He answers your investment questions each Wednesday in our new Q&A forum.
Send them to

Do the central banks of the
world actually deliver the
gold they sell, or are they really selling forward
contracts in the futures market? Also, are they
selling the gold themselves or are they loaning it
to speculators who then sell it with hopes of
buying it back at lower prices to cover? What will
happen when the sentiment about gold finally

The answer to all your questions about the central
banks is yes. They sell, they sell forward, and some
of them have exposure, while others have eliminated it.
They most definitely loan out gold, in which case it gets
sold. As for what will happen when perceptions about
gold change, expect an explosive move. Will this just be
another rally in a bear market? We can't know at this
juncture. At a minimum, a big trading move in gold
should be coming at some point. But that can't happen
until gold has finished dropping.

Personally, I think gold is becoming a very interesting
risk/reward investment, especially some of the
better-positioned gold equities like the South African
gold companies, which are dirt-cheap and would benefit
if sentiment changed. So there will be a huge move in
gold. The question is at what level and whether it will be
just the start of something. But again, the risk/reward is
starting to look interesting.

William A. Fleckenstein , special to StockStite

(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:17 - ID#376309)
gold loans
From everything I know about the subject of central bank gold loans, Central Banks do NOT lend to speculators. They lend there gold to major banks which have gold desks and to a lesser degree to large financially sound gold bullion dealers and gold mining companies. If a fund wants to short gold in the OTC market they can sell short at the banks trading desk or to a gold bullion dealers desk. In other words there is a firm with some capital between the central bank and the speculator.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:36 - ID#28593)
LGB2, What goes around, comes around
The Dornbusch piece echoes; does this sound familiar?

the Number 1 country was not subject to any external compulsion to act, its balance of payments being merely a reflection of what was happening in the N-1 countries, and that any problems would have to be solved by those countries.
This is what gave rise to the policy of benign neglect of the United States balance of payments with regard to its implications for other countries and for the dollar exchange rate--an attitude expressed at that time by Treasury Secretary John Connally vis--vis the Bundesbank: the dollar is our currency, but your problem!
Prof. Dr. Helmut Schlesinger, former President of the Deutsche Bundesbank
We don't seem to learn, do we?

But you know, I did wonder, when the Minister suggested he might sell some T-Bonds and buy gold? The Japanese tend to have a wickedly ironic sense of humor...what if , quietly--at a private Treasury Window as Jeff Uscher ( Grants Asia Observer ) said any bond sale would be off-market--what if Bob & Allen have been exchanging some of those bonds for gold? And the comment was the Ministers whimsical little joke?
Do we know that there are really 261.7 million troy ounces of
gold in the Fort?

They may have felt it was less costly than paying Japan in Swiss Francs?

Tolerant1: Afraid you're right. Lord what a mess!

(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:39 - ID#22956)
Do you have the exact open high low close for the low in '85 ( Comex ) ? And the day or two preceding and proceeding? You had said one day that you could get accurate #'s for us. Thank you much in advance. It is for some research I am doing. You know...the research of making a buck or two.



Bob M
(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:39 - ID#26059)
Your analysis does make sense as the question I have is why are the CBs selling gold into a down market..the first reaction is that they have some scheme up there sleeve and are trying to manipulate the gold market to prop up equities or currencies ....the other scenario which I am beginning to believe is much more likely, is that they are selling their gold out of desperation..that something much more sisnter, such as the oil for gold deal you have proposed is more likely the real reason..enjoy your thoughts...Thanks

(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:41 - ID#376309)
'85 low
go here:

(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:42 - ID#22956)
Cool Hep Lurk
Have you reversed your positions?? Are you long now? One word answers will suffice. My poetry/riddle deciphering is rusty 2-nite. search for clues.....


(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:43 - ID#31868)
Sunday December 7, 8:07 pm Eastern Time

Foreigners net Japan stock sellers via 11 firms

TOKYO, Dec 8 ( Reuters ) - Orders placed by foreign investors through 11 foreign securities houses before the start of stock trading on Monday showed a net selling stance of 15.40 million shares, market sources said.

Foreign investors placed 35.20 million shares of sell orders against 19.80 million shares of buys.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:44 - ID#26669)
US national debt info This is mostly just a "cute" demo, but if makes a point.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:51 - ID#26793)
Malaysia announces new economic measures; stocks up 7% now

(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:54 - ID#284255)
Liquidity = functionality
To me, it seems that all the global financial problems,
Have stemmed from the lack of liquidity.
Now we have the IMF, running into liquidity problems.
What if Japan has lots more liquidity problems.
They can not turn to the IMF,
As the IMF is near broke.

Liquidity is the availability, of sufficient cash,
To forfill, all debt payments.
Wages pass through seven hands, satisfying debts,
Along the way, before the money ends up, in the banks coffers.

As one bank, misses out on its payments,
So to does the ones, that it is indebted to.
This creates a domino effect.
A contagion, that is spreading like wildfire.
Jumping borders, it knows no restrictions.

As liquidity fails, debts fail,
And the ability to repay, disappears.
Assets are not liquidity,
And the selling off, of assets,
Provides no liquidity.
Merely extinguishes debts.

Once initiated, this contagion,
Travels the world,
Attacking all and any business,
That must have a daily liquidity surplus.

How it is extinguished, I don't know.
Maybe when all superflous debt,
Has been destroyed.
How is it created,
Excessive credit.

Japan utilizing its public funds,
Will not create true liquidity.
It will merely provide funds, to extinguish debt.
It will still, have the liquidity problem.
At the end of the day.

Now we see, this contagious domino effect,
Racing west to devour the countries,
Whose financial borders,
Have loans and links,
To the afflicted countries.

It has already established,
Its foothold in Europe,
And seeks to establish, its dominance there.
Then to the US, to rack its very soul,
As the lender of the last resort.

Golden Boy
(Sun Dec 07 1997 20:57 - ID#430233)
Thx for the gold chart site at privateer ( I should also thank the Cap'n )
The chart indeed looks brutal. It looks like gold might be some oversold right now and might try to rally a bit but I agree with the Cap'n that there needs to be a base built up or who knows where the bottom is going to be.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 21:00 - ID#31868)
You are right on the money trail. The US is in for one big world of hurt. And there is nothing that can be done to stop it. It is too big NOT to fail.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 21:05 - ID#31868)
Sunday December 7, 8:39 pm Eastern Time

Excessive yen weakness unfavourable--MOF Mitsuzuka

TOKYO, Dec 8 ( Reuters ) - Japanese Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka said on Monday that an excessive depreciation of the yen against the dollar was unfavourable, and that Japan will take appropriate steps to cope with excessive currency moves in a timely manner.

``As I have repeatedly said, an excessive fall in the yen is not favourable, and therefore we are ready to take timely and appropriate steps to cope with a rapid drop in the yen,'' he said.

Mitsuzuka said the ministry will continue to keep a close watch on currency moves.

Mitsuzuka reiterated remarks, made at news conferences and parliament sessions last week, that Japan is determined to take every measure necessary to ensure stability in Japan's financial system.

``Currency stability is likely to be realised when the financial system stabilises,'' he said.

Asked if he had read a media report that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) will consider a plan to sell some of Japan's massive holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds to help raise cash for the troubled banking sector, Mitsuzuka said he would prefer not to comment on the report as he needs to be briefed on details of the reported plan.

Golden Boy
(Sun Dec 07 1997 21:05 - ID#430233)
Rea Gold
Frustrated: How are these guys fixed for money? Have they hedged there production? and how far? What's their cost per oz esp at Bisset?? at these prices it may be cheap or expensive depending on lots of questions having the right answers. Last week alot of shares traded and it closed near its weekly low. Could it see a nickle yet?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 21:08 - ID#93232)
OOOhhhh! MY HEAD......WHERE AM I? head...Oh my God! I'm blind. I can't see...what's this on my eyes...they feel like coins.'m in a casket...Oh my God! I'm dead. There is no afterlife...all that tithing for nothing!

The last thing I remember...I ate some pudding over at Mom's house...I was watching "Treasures of the Incas" about to dose off...the lights go out...a BOOM!!!!...

Someone shot me! On my God! They probably shot Momma too! OH WHY?




Billy! Let's get the hell outa' here! Wait for me Billy....Billy...

Geeze guys...fellow goldbugs...what's going on here? Oh, my aching head....How's gold doing? Where's Momma?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 21:17 - ID#237164)
Gold, reserve assets and the future of central bank holdings
The above article by Robert Pringle, dated August 1997, might be of

(Sun Dec 07 1997 21:33 - ID#31868)
Sunday December 7, 7:44 pm Eastern Time

S.Korea to need another IMF package -- Dornbusch

TOKYO, Dec 8 ( Reuters ) - South Korea's economic problems are far from over, and it will need another aid package from the International Monetary Fund soon, U.S. economist Rudiger Dornbusch said on Monday.

Dornbusch, the influential Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor, told Reuters Financial Television that the IMF's aid package agreed last week did not go far enough and a supplementary package would be needed soon.

``Short-term debt is very large, and we don't even know, with the obsession about secrecy in the ministry ( of finance ) , just how much short-term debt is rolling off in the next six months and whether the IMF money goes through February or whether it's already gone by that time.''

Dornbusch, in Tokyo for a seminar on how to achieve stability in Asian currency markets, was asked if the IMF was being too optimistic in seeing a quick turnaround for economies like Indonesia.

``Sure it's too optimistic. The IMF has to be professionally optimistic. They administer harsh discipline. Surely Korea is just starting, growth is being revised downward to near zero for 1998. Indonesia, half is optimistic. Thailand, minus is sure. So this isn't over. This is barely starting.''

Asked about a statement by the Bank for International Settlements that risk premiums had not expanded sufficiently, Dornbush said: ``They're totally right, because the problems surely aren't worked out by getting an IMF bridge loan.''

There was uncertainty on the political side and over whether the countries could master the IMF programmes, and about who would bear the burden -- shareholders, banks, or taxpayers, questions about contagion, and whether more were coming. ``By all means the spreads have to be far higher. This is a very, very risky region to investors. This is not 50 basis points over Treasuries.''

The degree to which premiums expanded would depend on countries. Thailand was in a very bad situation, and in South Korea there was a huge domestic debt overhang that nobody had even started talking about, and the corporate structure was very antique.

He said the IMF package for Korea did not go far enough. It did not do anything about domestic debt or corporate restructuring on any scale.

``It's the bare bones of a programme that might put in place Korea. The Koreans say, ''We're not like Latin America.' That's a joke. They're in much worse shape. They have have spent years putting in place a very unproductive domestic structure and a gigantic amount of domestic debt. So this is a bad situation. It isn't over.``

(Sun Dec 07 1997 21:36 - ID#372344)
@ Another, Thunder only happens when it"s Raining.
Nice to hear from you, I see you've been lurking.I beleive IMHO that we
along with most kiitcoites agree a large up move in Gold is near. Our only
difference appears to be in how much, how fast. Here is a thought for you
what if the US and maybe others decided to "avoid" the coming crisis by
announcing that the new paper $ they have been printing for the last 5
years or so is really the New "DOMESTIC $" with some Gold backing and that the US would turn inward much like in the 1930's with almost all its OILand GOLD ect... supply coming from The Anerica's and and leave the rest of the world holding the bag ( FOREIGN $ ) . By the way also in the
1930's the US gave out large sums of paper $ to North American miners
to produce Gold, and those stocks did well indeed.I believe ( as mentioned in my earlier post ) the GAME now is at Who is going to INFLATE? the US or Japan.The latter was an ally of the Nazis Thus
know all about German HYPERINFLATION. IMHO "THE WAR ON GOLD" is coming to an end and "THE FIGHT FOR GOLD" will begin.
This fight will last a long time. As you know paper currencies last only
so long 20,40, maybe 60 years before they are burried in the currency
graveyard and it is only near and at their death that the THUNDER of
GOLD'S power is heard, It has begun to rain.

Oris as stated by many other Kitcoites, it will be no "FUN" when it happens, believe me.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 21:37 - ID#31868)
anybody keeping track of all this bad debt?
Sunday December 7, 9:08 pm Eastern Time

Thailand says two of shut finance firms to reopen

BANGKOK, Dec 8 ( Reuters ) - Thai Finance Minister Tarrin Nimmanahaeminda said on Monday that only two of the 58 debt-ridden, suspended local finance companies would be allowed to resume operations.

He told a much-awaited news conference that the two firms to be allowed to reopen were Kiatnakin Finance and Securities Plc ( KK.BK ) and Bangkok Investment Plc ( BIC.BK ) . The other 56 failed to get approval from the authorities to reopen.

As he announced the massive shake-up of the troubled finance sector, Tarrin said that some of the 56 finance companies that failed to get approval to reopen would be merged into one or two banks by February.

The finance firms were suspended by the central bank earlier this after they were found to be strapped with billions of dollars in sour loans mainly to the glutted property sector. The troubles in the finance sector were largely responsible for the worst economic crisis that Thailand is grappling with now.

Industry sources estimate the firms collectively carry around $16 billion in loans from foreign lenders and their total loans outstanding equal about half of their total assets put at about 800 billion baht ( $190.5 billion ) .

The central bank has in the past lent them over 430 billion baht to help tide them over liquidity problems.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 21:38 - ID#93232)
I'm way long...goin' longer. A couple of "bags" should have come in this week ( A. Philharmonics ) . I need to get to the house to check on 'em.

I've been kinda' out of it...are Japan and S. Korea still countries?
What happened to gold? Who "buried" it?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 21:47 - ID#356304)
Time or timing
Tonite I got out an old textbook ( Principles of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets by Ritter and Silber ) from U of M finance class in '78or'79 and read in chapter 33 "What about Gold" an interesting historical event---....the U.S. Treasury deliberately and successfully cracked the price spiral in january 1975 by selling 750,000 oz from it's gold hoard and then auctioned 500,000 in june 1975. Also in jan '76 the INF agreed to sell 25 million oz on the open market. Of course what is noteworthy is what happened a few years later--$800 oz.Maybe its amatter of time for the bulls and not timing. Any thoughts

(Sun Dec 07 1997 21:49 - ID#356304)
INF should be IMF

(Sun Dec 07 1997 21:50 - ID#238422)

I mean "FUN" to learn what people think about all this stuff

I think that so many different factors are involved in gold
story at this time, that it is highly unlikely that anybody
out here can figure it all out with a certain degree of accuracy.

It's clear that things do not look logical, so people have a
whole bunch of different theories on this subject.....

However, I believe that basics are still the same and I agree
with your main idea.

Golden Boy
(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:02 - ID#430233)
Maybe you can try to help me understand something. The Thailand finance companies are in bad shape because they over lent. Where is all that money. Isn't it out there somewhere. Let's say these finance companies get bailed out. Doesn't that money to the depositors who then can spend that money on something? Sometimes real estate and stocks and for that matter PM's may become overpriced and subsequently the price falls and some people lose. But didn't others gain. That's the way the game works as far as I understand. When things become cheap again the prices will stabalize and may go up. It would seem to me that bailing out these comapnies or countries is good political as well as good economics otherwise all the money would eventually be held by a few and the game would be over. That's the message of many on Kitco IMO. They see the day when paper asstes will be worthless but what then. Will they have the gold or will that be confiscated. More likely they'll be broke too.
My question is what's solution if you don't help out in these situations?
Would there be a world wide depression? world wars?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:02 - ID#426220)

Dec 5 - TOKYO:
Per Shuji Karasawa of the Japanese parliament: Japanese gold holdings are far too low

Dec 5 - TOKYO:
Per Head of Japanese LDP: US Dollar dependence too great, we need more gold to offset excessive Dollar dependence.

Financial Fairy-tale or Expedient Global Monetary Necessity: Global Gold Standard?! STARTLING IMF data demonstrate its feasibility. BOJs T-Bond holdings is the keystone for success. Japan would need to buy many tonnes of GOLD. EMU member participation essential.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:04 - ID#288156)
Tolerant1--Why the TSE...
SBC-UBS merger creates $600bn bank
Swiss Bank Corporation and Union Bank of Switzerland are expected to announce a full merger today in a deal that will create the world's second largest commercial bank, with assets of nearly $600bn.

Liquidity=Functionality=Sound of Many Hands Clapping

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:05 - ID#244207)
It's always the same, only different. Gold is dead, right? So was the lava lamp, liking the Three Stooges, wearing wingtips, listening to The Doors and holding your suit pants up with suspenders. Maybe when you see folks wearing Earth Shoes, you'll know gold will have its day...

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:05 - ID#426220)
"...follow the RATS
LONDON ( BBC ) : It was announced this last weekend that "Barclays to close BZW share trading"

"Banking group Barclays is to withdraw from equity activities in the Japanese market."

"The bank announced the IMMEDIATE CLOSURE of its BZW share trading
operations, after it failed to find a buyer for its BZW Securities ( Japan ) Ltd subsidiary."

A Seaman's Axiom: "When in a sinking ship, FOLLOW THE RATS!"

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:05 - ID#22956)
Well Donald....and I almost missed it........
I will 'play it again' for those that might have missed it. I wonder who else has underestimated their 'war-chest'. And I wonder if it will be revealed sooner or later.....and what will they do with all the gold 'surplus'. Will it enter the free market through sales??......hmmmmmm...

Date: Sun Dec 07 1997 12:49

Donald__A ( Bank of England reveals gold reserves ) ID#26793:

Bank of England: Opens books on forex and

gold reserves


By Robert Chote, Economics Editor

The Treasury and the Bank of England, the UK central bank, yesterday

opened the books on the Britain's reserves of gold and foreign exchange,

revealing that the government has more in its war chest than earlier figures

suggested. w/w...hmmmmmmmm


(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:07 - ID#426220)
SILVER LINING by The Astrological Investor
Analyst Mike Sheller asserts long-term speculators in bullion and mining stocks may be looking at the kind of opportunity right now that presents itself every several years in the heartbeat of the gold cycle. The last time he made a similar call, he was RIGHT ON THE MONEY in predicting the lows of Oil and Gas stocks in early 1994. Subsequently, hundreds of percent gains were made.

At this particular astrological moment, he says, We kind of feel the same way right now about gold and silver. He names his favorite stocks... which may rise to the stars ( pun intended ) :

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:13 - ID#22956)
...........STUDIO.R.....Cool Lurk.......HepCat..........
Now.......correct me if I'm wrong.

You are one and the same??!? huh? And you think gold hit bottom.



Ted - the Can$ is on a tear!!!! UP 6 whole ticks.......yehaaaaaaa!! ;-0

go gold....ugh...

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:15 - ID#284255)
Nature's natural chaos is coming to a world near you, real soon.
Tolerant 1

Interesting how Japan's ministers,
Have been to see the US Feds.

Then off to Europe,
And now a quick visit to Switzerland.

Methinks that their liquidity problems,
Have yet to come to light.

Who will help them,
Or will they have to go it alone.

There are cracks in the system,
Starting to show in Europe.

The confluence of events unfolding,
Are characteristics, of the top of a mania.

Not only are financial problems encountered.
But also the natural cyclical forces,
Of our mother Earth, come into play.

These events take many shapes,
El Nino effects - drought, rain, cyclonic activity.
Earthquakes, and solar activity.
War and disharmony.
Chaos reigns supreme.

These events are not caused by the mania.
Rather, they all have a confluence,
Within a point in time.
To become tomorrow's history.

That these disharmonies,
Are moving in lock-step,
Leads me to believe, that the time is nigh,
For great changes to be inflicted,
Upon the cycles of the world.

The coming crash is pre-ordained,
In the sense, that our futures, are already,
Laid out on the sands of time.
We cannot stand in its way,
And prevent that which will become.

In the context of the above,
I see the reality behind Another's words.
His vision is but a part of what will come to be.

What intrigues me,
Is what else does he see?

He has alluded only, to the effects of change, on gold.
But with these changes,
Much else will be changed.
His story is but a little part of what will become.

The rest of this story I guess
Will be a story to be told for generations.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:16 - ID#35767)
What Bank Of England Says
Pronouncements of more reserves of Whatever is the endgame. Remember at the end of WW2 the Fuhrer had a secret weapon. Cbs have sold very little gold and do not trust each other so very little will be sold. As always Britain will say or do anything for Wall St and Washington so they are the party line. Things must be getting pretty tight for these announcements to come out. The last thing Washington will do is sell its gold. Though they may be running a bit short if they got into the massive lending game. Hope Not!

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:21 - ID#288156)
Tolerant1...Mining Problems in Russia, Money problems for Western banks
Tolerant1, wasn't Russia your pick to be the next? Is this the
Mining: Loan for Russian diamond producer collapses
By Kenneth Gooding, in London

A $500m loan facility for Russia's biggest diamond producer,
Almazy-Rossi-Sakha ( ARS ) , arranged by a group of western banks, has

This is a substantial setback for ARS, which urgently needs to refurbish
existing mines and finance new exploration.

Analysts suggest Natwest Markets of the UK, which was leading the loan,
withdrew because turbulence in Asian financial markets is spilling over to other emerging markets, including Russia. They say ARS and the banks could not agree what changes should be made to the deal, and the banks reluctantly withdrew.

The loan was put on hold in January when De Beers, the South African group which dominates world trade in rough, or uncut, diamonds, ended its formal links with Russia.

The loan facility had been conditional on ARS supplying diamonds to De
Beers, which then would repay the banks. De Beers finally reached agreement on a new contract with Russia in October.

In the meantime, NatWest helped to arrange a loan from some Russian banks
for ARS to help keep production going.

ARS needs the cash to develop new sources of diamonds to replace its
declining Udachny mine in Siberia. "Unless ARS gets this money, the
long-term ability of Russians to mine diamonds is in question," said one

Diamond International, published by the CRU International consultancy,
reported that ARS also hoped to raise several hundred million dollars via a Eurobond offering late this year, with the help of SBC Warburg Dillon Read and Salomon Smith Barney.

"That is if the rating process now under way in Moscow can produce what
many doubt is possible - a clear picture of the company's internal financial flows and diamond inventory," it said.

Under the terms of the contract with De Beers, Russia is to sell
$550m-$1.2bn of diamonds a year to the South African group's
London-based Central Selling Organisation.

The contract runs only to the end of 1998 instead of the usual five years, and this put more pressure on ARS in dealing with the western banks. The contract can be extended by two years by agreement, but there is no certainty this will happen. At the time of the signing, Nicky Oppenheimer, De Beers chairman-elect, said no extension would be considered unless Russia lived up to the terms and the spirit of the new agreement.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:26 - ID#93232)
iamherandsheisme....and together we will always be...Go Goldbugs!
We have seen the bottom...otherwise, I would be in the ground....way too much Shakespeare in my history! Hope it didn't disturb...

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:27 - ID#159156)
Don't Miss It!
These kinds of opportunities are rare.

North American gold shares are way oversold, and there's a fire sale on due to tax-loss selling and a strong US Dollar. The rebound on Friday, if followed through on Monday, could have marked a short-term bottom and the start of a nice big retracement. Volume was strong Friday. The XAU index was up almost 4%. So was the TSE Gold index. With a little help from the silver market, we could be on our way.

Living in the Frozen North, I follow the Toronto and Vancouver gold shares. I'll be riding the likes of:

K.T Kinross Gold ( senior producer )
GRE.T Greenstone Resources ( junior producer )
BGO.T Bema Gold ( start-up producer )
ELD.T Eldorado Gold ( producer, exploration )
PGD.T Pangea Gold ( exploration, lots of projects )
MFL.V Minefinders ( exploration, a silver play too )
QTR.T Quuenstake Resources ( junior exploration )
ANZ.T Antares Mining ( junior exploration )
PAT.V Patricia Mines ( junior exploration )

Enjoy the ride!

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:34 - ID#26793)
Who will help Japan? There is no bucket big enough for that bailout.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:35 - ID#288156)
Article notes "others to follow"...
S Korea: Shipbuilding conglomerate collapses

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:37 - ID#373403)
Proposal that Japan print money to shore up banks bad loans
It seems reasonable that given their deflation, printing money to pay off bad loans and shore up the banking sector would be a natural choice. My gut tells me though that you cannot just create money to pay bad debts without negative consequences.

Can anyone enumerate the downside?


(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:37 - ID#31868)
Golden Boy

I see the problem as being multi-faceted. Start with the bad loans for one. They should not have been made. Bad business practice should not be rewarded. IMHO These types of problems become linked to political and cultural differences and escalate into worse problems, rather than dealing with the up front problem of just poor business dealings. The organizations that are bailing out these countries have no money. It is created out of thin air ( printed ) and then loaned. The principle can never be re-paid, and the interest payments live in perpetuity.

Every time there is a problem the US taxpayer is bled a little more by the vampire bankers, government and other political entities/forces that try and enforce their particular brand of philosophy into a business environment. The debt in the US can never be repaid. Yet the government and the bankers keep creating money. The entire system is completely out of control and a patchwork fix here and there is not working. You cannot just create trillions of dollars out of thin air without dire consequences.

The people of Thailand share a burden with people all over the world in that they allow politicians to write checks and print money with their mouths and the stroke of a pen that the people in each country cannot support. Governments get bigger and bigger, never create anything but debt, war and famine, yet they all know what the fix is. Close up certain business entities, fire people, yada, yada, yada. How come you never hear governments say we need to get smaller, we are too big. They are constantly broke, yet they always get paid.

The people get screwed and governments grow, politicians get fat.

Thousands of years have gone by and people the world over are still gullible.

The fix, demand a system of money the politician cannot play with. Demand the governments of the world live within the confines of a budget like the people they govern. Work hard and try to live a life that allows you to look in the mirror in the morning and respect what you see.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:45 - ID#35767)
Tolerant 1
I agree tell it to NEWT TRENT and The WALL ST BAnking crowd. In my opinion Wall St and the Corporate Board Room is to FAT. Lets slim them down!

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:46 - ID#93232)
my final thought for this week....
I hope and pray that the joy that will come our way for our being right will not be completely diminished by the pain we will see around us. Good night, all.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:46 - ID#238422)
@John Disney
I do recognize that our discussion should be on the
subject of gold matters, however you demonstrated some
knowledge in vodka drinking techique, and I can not
resist it. You even mentioned vodka/caviar combination
and I feel I must answer!

Try some good vodka ( good means you can drink it not chilled,
but at room temperature ) with pickles ( not sweat, but hot/salty ) .
Straight vodka shot goes first ( no mixing with water, ice or any
other substence - it's a sin ) , pickle goes second. Try it in the
same manner with cold-smoked salmon, with Black Greek Olives or
with marinated mushrooms.

Just to be sure - you do not put caviar on the cracker, aren't you?
You make a sandwich - soft white bread/butter/caviar, right?

This is so close to my heart, I do not need any interest on this advice,
feel free to request any details, without feeling really bad about it...
I don't mind giving away those secrets of mine.... it's a holy stuff
I feel I am obligated to share...

In the meantime, and if you have time to answer, what is your
idea on the direction of gold prices within 1 year and 3-5 year period?

Thanks in advance...

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:52 - ID#284255)
What's coming?
Kamchatka throbbing away.
Three small quakes running down the length of Japan.

Beware, life is not normal at the moment.
Underestimated or overestimated.
That is the question,
That many, don't wish to lose face too, in answering.

When the truth is laid bare.
Many will shake their heads in amazement.

It is nice to enjoy the slides in life,
But the bumps at the bottom, can hurt.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:53 - ID#225283)

TORA TORA TORA.....Remember Pearl Harbor!!!!

Remember more recent history AG has promised the full faith and credit of the US Central Bank to shore up Japan as needed to avert a sell off of US Treasury notes.

I'm certain you can find the speech if you do a search.

Do you have the speech the Nipponese Finance guy gave ( at Columbia I think ) stating the threat to sell US holding and buy Gold?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 22:53 - ID#31868)
SDRer, Sharefin
I was not the one to pick Russia to fall next, I think it was Donald or A.Goose, but I am not sure. In light of both your posts I think it is safe to say that cycles are a part of life.

However, I believe that we have the capacity to alter in both a good and bad way the way the future arrives to greet us. Yes, there are things that occur for which there is seemingly nothing that can be done. Acts of God if you will for lack of a better term. Of course it could simply be that we have not arrived at a point in our development wherein we can fix, alter, change some of those items.

We must demand a rigid monetary system that the politician and banker can not prostitute. Until we do that the rest is nothing more than window dressing.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:02 - ID#225283)
Quake in Tokyo

If a large quake were to strike Tokyo I think the entire world economy would be thrown into the worst depression ever seen on this planet.

If this happens ...and I think the statistical probability is greater than most of us we imagine...1998 thru 2001 would make the "Great Depression" look like a picnic .

(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:06 - ID#31868)
We pound the labor movement with the thought that says buy gold, save what little you have left by investing in real money. Don't put your money down the bankers or governments black hole. Demand a better future and that future starts with a rigid, gold backed system of money.

Tell all the other groups of labor all over the planet to demand this new gold backed system of money. A system that is adhered to with the strictest of guidelines and the rule of law.

Demand fiscal responsiblity from those who say they lead. They have nothing to lead if the populace is in disarray, disheartened and worried about how to feed their loved ones.

The responsibility of labor does not stop with demands for fair wages and hours. Those two things mean nothing without a solid foundation and that foundation is a rock solid monetary unit.

Ready, get set, DEMAND!

(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:07 - ID#20137)
Date: Sun Dec 07 1997 22:53
tolerant1 ( SDRer, Sharefin ) ID#31868:
I was not the one to pick Russia to fall next, I think it was Donald or A.Goose, but I am not sure.

Not A.Goose. I was guessing for the next financial institiution to fall - ING was my entry. I don't think I entered the "next country to Fall" contest.

tolernat1, the politicans are not going to change until they absolutely have to. It will have to get quite nasty before they will give up the sweet life. IMHO

(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:11 - ID#31868)
Then we use the vote, if that does not work, I remember these wacky kids, named George, Tom, Ben and others and they became a royal Paine.

So should we.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:12 - ID#238422)

(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:15 - ID#239438)
Re: Another
Your comments are always welcome and
thought-provoking, but they reflect
a common theme- one of these days
there will be a really big change and
Goldbugs ( yes, I am one ) everywhere will
dance in the streets and scream
"I told you so!!!". The trouble is,
it never seems to quite happen.
Why? Perhaps because most people dont
want it to happen, cannot concieve
of it happening, and the powers
that be are totally committed to
preventing it from happening.
One thing that really troubles me,
various governments ( including the US )
are apparently busily printing more
money, but we have no inflation, and
no loss of confidence in the US$. This
defies basic economics. If they can get away with this one, what else can they get away with?

(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:15 - ID#189273)
Speculation: If earthquake hit Japan
Hi, been out here lurking for a few days. Gold just got very
cheap, interesting to one who likes to buy low. Looking for
evidence of a bottom. Should earthquake hit Japan, likely to
lead to massive rebuilding and rejuvenation of infrastructure.
Hurricane Andrew and our California quakes cases in point.

Tyler Rose
(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:23 - ID#373164)
Bank of England Gold Holdings

If you go to the site listed below, you can download a pdf file which lists the BOE gold holdings as of 9/30/97. I will try to figure out what these figures mean, but it would be helpful if other Kitcoites joined me in trying to decipher what all of this new "transparency" on the part of reporting authorities really means.

Have a look and see what you think!

(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:24 - ID#284255)
Who's to help Japan.
I think that the US must change its stance and stop being the raper of the world.
It has to come to the defense of capitalism as we know it.
If the rest of the world fails and the US remains strong.
It has achieved little.
This global world needs to act globally.
I am noticing cause and effect here, personally in Cairns.
In my life. In my friends, spheres of contacts.
My wife has lost business contacts, through the pulling out of Japanese contracts in Cairns. She is in the PR business.
Right now I have a fishing friend, who has just called in to say hello, and to chew the fat.
He has just finished, a four month fishing season, in the Gulf.
He is very worried, about his wages - extremely so.
For the season, they landed 30 odd tons of prawns.
7 tons of white prawns, that have been sold into the local markets and he has been paid his share of the profits for this.
23 tons of Tiger prawns that normally are exported to Japan, where they always go.
Almost none of these Tiger prawns have been sold.
He wonders when and if ( how much ) he will be paid for this share of the catch.
Tigers are were worth $34 per kg, in October.
Whites are worth $11 across the board.
For the total value of the catch Tigers are 90% of the dollar value.
It will be a lean Xmas for the fishermen of the Gulf this year.

The Japanese do not want to purchase these products.
They can't afford to buy.

This is just local gossip, but alludes to the seriousness of the situation.
How many other small communities will start to notice the drying up of liquidity within their relative industries.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:31 - ID#31868)
The American people must take back control of their government. There are too many other entities from around the globe who control what "our" leaders are doing.

I am terrified of the US President that called the crisis in Asia a "glitch."

(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:31 - ID#373403)
Regarding money creation, I am also troubled that the governments of the world are busy printing money yet we see no inflation. What is up?

On a different yet similiar note, does it take more or less money to push the DOW from 7500 to 8000 than from 4500 to 5000?

Golden Boy
(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:31 - ID#430233)
Lack of inflation????
Silverado: I don't know how it's figured up but it sure seems from a working man's perspective that there's inflation. Check out the price of a new vehicle or build a new house or buy mutual fund shares or see what $100 buys at Christmas and you'll think there inflation.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:34 - ID#238422)
Very true.

(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:35 - ID#188244)
LGB- you out there?

Gosh, if it was just a silly conspiracy theory, why would the military act this way? Its so hard to keep people quiet- you have to put them under house arrest!

Sorry if this has been referenced already- I'm behind on my Kitco reading.

Tyler Rose
(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:40 - ID#373164)
Bank of England reporting

If you went to the site of my earlier post, and downloaded that pdf file, you would see that the BOE had a footnote ( as follows ) stating that gold was valued at $261.11 for the year ending 3/31/98. Does this shake you up? I respectfully suggest that bigger brains than mine need to address questions raised in this Bank of England report.

Gold is valued at the average of the London fixing price for the three months to

end-March, less 25%; or at 75% of its final fixing price on the last working day

in March, whichever is the lower. The gold price in use during the year to

31 March 1998 is US$261.110 per troy ounce.

Golden Boy
(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:42 - ID#430233)
Thx for your general comments throughout the day and your response to my question. G'night to Yanks and Canuks, G'Day to the Aussies, and G'trading to All

(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:43 - ID#224151)
Bank mergers
These recently announced Bank mergers in the U-S and now Switzerland.Are they "closing the ranks" do you think? Is this not another sign that things are far from Well?

Tyler Rose
(Sun Dec 07 1997 23:50 - ID#373164)
Bank of England

According to the report released recently by the BOE, gold reserves held by the Exchange Equalisation Account amounted to 6.013 billion US$. Reserves held by the Bank of England amounted to 1.179 billion US$. Is that a lot of ounces of the good stuff, or what?