Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 00:04 - ID#257107)
Haggis_A in Kalgoorlie
Haggis, if you want to discuss Oz resource/spec stocks, you might like to visit Hotcopper at Interesting discussion currently going on on the relative merits of ECM/LEG " silver "find". As a geologist, your comments on these stocks would be useful. Look forward to seeing you there.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 00:16 - ID#255151)
GOLD Education

A Goose--Yep, it really gives you a different outlook to actually feel its weight in your hand. Hell, I would bet an ounce of Gold probably weighs about 10 times as much as an ounce of paper money.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 00:27 - ID#401460)
Arab World Meets in Iran
Saudi leader's visit to Iran signals a turning

TEHRAN, Iran ( December 8, 1997 3:11 p.m. EST ) -- Iran and
Saudi Arabia are edging closer after almost 20 years of acrimony -- a move
that threatens to unravel U.S. policy in the oil-rich Persian Gulf.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 00:36 - ID#364147)
@EB + 'Slowtime'
Now they can't even beat the Trail Blazers ( hahaha ) .....go gold!!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 00:38 - ID#364147)
@ Aurator
G'day mate!! As you can see I'm still awake ( ?? ) .....

(Tue Dec 09 1997 00:40 - ID#288155)
A. Goose, Freddie & Fannie meet LIBOR
Our first sight of "quantifible thus managable"
( G/S on triparty repos ) going awry!
One hedge fund manager exhorting, "It should be taken off
the index!" Great Catch Goose! I needed that ( though I
can't help but worry for the folks whose mortgages
will be involved in the ultimate fall-out of this
arrant nonsense ) .

(Tue Dec 09 1997 00:40 - ID#255284)
Is that an ingot in your pocket or are you just happy to see me?
Auric, now ain't it all worthwhile?

Was speaking today to my contact at JM, shooting the breeze quite cavalier, he was telling me of a Platinum ingot he saw and held once, from a JM refinery in Europe, he speached me about the beauty of its shape and the raised, rather than stamped hallmarks, the way the sun gleamed off it.


G'day, check your woodpile for an exploding cigar.


(Tue Dec 09 1997 00:49 - ID#288155)
HighRise at the Summit
Allen said he wanted something scary ( teasingly ) and I think
this is pretty scary. Iraq and Iran side by side
on the same platform: "The enemy of my enemy is my friend."
oh boy...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 00:52 - ID#255284)
On balance--
Auric, An ounce of gold DOES weigh more than an ounce of paper or even an ounce of goose feathers. Gold is weighed in Troy oz, paper and goose feathers etc weighed in avoirdupois

1 Troy oz = 1.097142999 avoirdupois oz

1 avoirdupois oz = 0.911458215 Troy oz

That's from the converter ( Mac ) Shareware prog I posted earlier


(Tue Dec 09 1997 00:58 - ID#341297)
where is gold heading
I would like to hear what you all think about where the price of gold is heading. Has gold lsot its shine or is there lfie at the end of the tunnel.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:02 - ID#335184)
since silver serves no monetary role, is not stockpiled by any CB, and it's price is not artificially depressed,why would it have any more upside potential than any other industrial commodity? Also, does anyone have an opinion on the impact of digital photo-imaging on silver demand/price?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:04 - ID#255151)
G'day aurator, Ted

aurator--What "struck" me about the Maple Leaf was that it was smaller and heavier than I thought it would be. Also, the design is very sparse and elegant. Just QE II on one side and an environmentally-friendly maple leaf on the other. This one was struck in 1980, interestingly enough. Ted--How about them Pacers! Seven in a row until running into the Jazz tonight. Ol' Reggie Miller was ejected for bumping a referee in the game. I hope Larry Byrd kicks his ass, BIG TIME! After Rodman, OJ, Striewell, etc., a message needs to be sent to these pro athletes. Larry Byrd is the only coach in the NBA who would have the "heft" and credibility to send this message and make it stick. A big fine and lengthy suspension would be an excellent start. Go Larry! Go Gold!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:05 - ID#25588)
Bottom Pickers
Gold - Dec Gold should reach at least a short term bottom at 282.50 + or - $1.00. Buy Feb or April Gold when Dec Gold trades under 283.00 uae a $3.00 stop.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:07 - ID#238422)
In regard to Military, Oil and Gold - it is just how I see it.

Gold is a natural currency back-up ( Switzerland is a classic example )

Military - let me put it in this way: Political problems in Russia usually cause Europeans to start buying US$, because only the U.S. can potentially provide enough opposition, primarily of military nature,
to potential Russian threat.

Oil is kind of indirect, but powerful back up for US$. I can not really
explain the role of "oil back up" in details, except that if any country wants to purchase oil, they must pay in US$, which means this country must have ( buy ) US$.

By the way, same is true for gold, gold backs up US$ actually
twice, directly as a gold reserve of the the U.S. and indirectly by
being quoted in US$.

Sorry for extremely simplified presentation, and I do admit these ideas
of mine are pretty primitive. However, I consider all three factors+
+general indusrial strength+relative political stability of the U.S. to be the basis for long-term strength of the US$ IN RELATION TO ANY OTHER

However, it does not mean that price of gold would not rise in terms
of US$. It will, but timing is uncertain, that is why we are all talking
to each other.

If 280$/oz is below average cost of production around the world,
it might be a bottom, or I would say - CLASSIC BOTTOM. In this case
we may see gold going nowhere for 6-9 months, then probably up..

However, there are too many different aspects in this gold play,

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:08 - ID#364147)
@ The End
With gold heading south ( AGAIN! ) Dec. gold down 1.30 @ 288.70....I say g'night Aurator and all kitcoites ( you 2 Gus ) ....go gold!$!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:14 - ID#341297)
Gold in free fall

So you feel that gold is not where people should be putting their money? would silver be a better investment?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:17 - ID#57232)
China debt defaults? Logging off for the night
SDRer, Carl: Saw your earlier dialogues about China. I think two very important points not brought up are:

1 ) China has an extensive bartering system, so a crisis in Western, SE Asian or Japanese currencies means very little to the average mainland Chinese.

2 ) China will always have eager investors, even after a debt default or a currency devaluation. As someone said, I think, they may just let some of the major banks importing foreign funds fail. Where in the world can an investor find cheaper labor?

So -- a mainland Chinese debt default of 300 billion or so with bank failures will affect China very little in the long run. But the effect on one of their economic competitors -- Japan -- could be a very serious one indeed. Payback for an earlier time? That is not out of the question.

I think it is very clear that China will be the economic leader of that part of the world when the dust settles.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:17 - ID#20137)
Rather a nasty trend for the rupiah tonight.
Monday December 8, 9:28 pm Eastern Time
Indonesian rupiah falls to another low of 4,375

Monday December 8, 10:03 pm Eastern Time
Indonesian rupiah tumbles to 4,420 vs dollar

Tuesday December 9, 12:03 am Eastern Time
Indonesian rupiah hits 4,500 vs dollar at 0454 GMT

Tuesday December 9, 12:15 am Eastern Time
Indonesia rupiah sinks to 4,600 vs dollar at 0508 GMT

Hong Kong Hang Seng ^HSI 11:30PM 11453.20 -269.74 -2.30%
India BSE 30 ^BSESN 1:12AM 3461.52 -6.67 -0.19%
Indonesia Jakarta Composite ^JKSE 12:00AM 418.844 -4.769 -1.13%
Malaysia KLSE Composite ^KLSE 11:31PM 639.60 -36.87 -5.45%
Singapore Straits Times ^SS1 1:11AM 1747.33 -6.30 -0.36%
South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 1:02AM 388.00 -26.83 -6.47%
Taiwan Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 11:03PM 8333.49 -68.68 -0.82%
Thailand SET ^SETI 12:32AM 392.94 -8.86 -2.21%

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:18 - ID#255284)
Running a Silver Cloud on empty
Newtron ( as in Israac? )

I am sure that the daytime experts can give your question a more expansive response than I, however, digital photography has long been held as the sword of Damocles over the Demand/Supply imbalance of silver, it has yet to reach its potential.

The res of digital photography means its unsuitable ( currently ) for anything but snapshots, and amateur camera bugs, but the price of a digital camera removes it from this market.

Digital photography is no where near good enough ( yet- ever? ) for professional photography, or X-rays, the biggest industrial users of silver.

One day perhaps, but its a little like this speach recognition software, one day,

Although I believe there is an actual physical problem ( probably not insoluble JTF? ) with getting the digital receptors dense enough ( or clever enought ) to emulate the 30,000 dpi ( and that no. should be corrected by someone who knows ) of just ordinary SIlver Halide photography.


(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:19 - ID#335184)
SINCE silver plays no monetary function, is not stockpiled by CBs and it's price is not artificially depressed,exclusive of"Sympathy" action what justification is there to expect any significant upside to silver price? ALso, what is the downside to silver demand posed by the introduction of digital photo-imaging?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:31 - ID#335184)
Thanks for informative response re digital competition, but what is the basic case for silver, except moving in "Sympathy" with upward move by gold?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:32 - ID#20137)
The price of gold ???
Date: Tue Dec 09 1997 00:58
claudio ( where is gold heading ) ID#341297:

I think at this point I have stopped worrying about where the gold bottom is. ( Can't believe I am saying that ) . It more of can the other tops keep on climbing. Stocks, bonds, currency look very dangerous to me right now. We are definitely having a currency melt down in asia right NOW. We are definitely seeing the currency crisis spread in Asia. We have a golbal trading system in effect. The Crisis will continue to spread. At some point the USA will be involve in a very negative fashion. As the holder of the defacto world currency, the USA can be humbled under the tons of paper dollars that can be return to these shores from displeased holders abroad.
Is it possible? Yes. Might it not happen? Yes. If it doesn't happen I will be out some cash. If it does happen, many others will lose everything.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:37 - ID#335184)

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:39 - ID#20137)
Date: Tue Dec 09 1997 00:40

Thanks SDRer. I thought it was nice to find a example demostrating that the US is linked into this asian problem already. I am sure bigger things will follow.

You're right about the happenings in the middle east. Looks like the folks there are getting a little tired of the WEST protecting them?? What was the attitude of the oil powers the last time they all locked arms and walked together in harmony???

I agree that it doesn't look good for the west. Maybe this increased production was a ploy, or the last straw?

We are living in interesting times, and many of us are not getting much sleep ( off to bed I am ) .

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:39 - ID#288157)
JTF, once again in sync
Yes, that was to be my point before I got side-tracked:
all that will be devastating for us, can be handled
with comparative ease by the Chinese. ( Not to suggest that the Chinese people will not suffer, but they are not strangers to suffering.
It will, IMHO, be much more difficult for Americans, are really strangers to discomfort ( unless self induced ) ...
There is something there...the appreciation of the currency, the big brother hug given Yeltsin ( did you see the photo in Economist, they
looked like long lost brothers! ) ...

10:00 PM WestCoast-News flash--Central Bank of Indonesia in flames, top three floors destroyed, two/three people killed, "faulty wiring". In the
mainframe, no doubt...


(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:40 - ID#255151)
Higher Math

aurator--Like I need a phucking scale to tell me that an ounce of Gold is heavier than an ounce of feathers! Some Lurking Rocket Scientist tried to tell me the other day that pie are squared. Everyone knows pie are round!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:44 - ID#255284)
now, if you'd just remove those stilletos,... , would like a word..
Newtron: all good questions, yar, a few years ago I could spit figures for supply & Demand at yer, now I suggest you have a look at Monsieur Vronsky's excellent Gold Eagle site - see Links at top of page -

just found a link to 95 stats, mentions your namesake, the fellar what spends a lot of time standing on other people's shoulders

Low Spark High Heeled boys

(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:53 - ID#255284)
OZ chasing 170 against S.A.?
Watch that Donald - one mean bowler,but he's got his work cut out for him.
kiriki is an island variation of cricket

for sharefin & Dad ( an all kiwis )

outside my window I have been watching a beautiful male Tui sipping the nectar from a bright red-hot poker, his deep green feathers shining electric in the early evening.


(Tue Dec 09 1997 01:57 - ID#255284)
Auric ROFL, if i had a scanner ( or a digital camera Newtron? ) I'd scan a photo of the tucks and turkey.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 02:00 - ID#401460)
Gold is heading down the Toilet AGAIN !!!
Gold is going south and I am going to bed, I can't stand to watch the chart.
Good Night All

Dave in CO
(Tue Dec 09 1997 02:01 - ID#215211)
Ignore if you have no interest in political crises
Second expert: Ron Brown's wound appeared to be from gunshot:

In addition, the guy in charge of the airport navigation equipment which supposedly caused the crash committed suicide after the plane crash, not because of the crash, but reportedly because of a romantic break-up.

Barbara Wise ( suspicious death in her office at Commerce Dept. ) worked for John Huang ( probable indictment ) who worked for Ron Brown ( died in plane crash during investigation by independent counsel ) in the Commerce Department. 34 others died in the crash.

What are the odds?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 02:36 - ID#255151)
Hole In One

Dave in CO--This is a bombshell. This is now on Drudge's site as well. Have any wires or mainstream sources reported this yet? With El Reno set to face Dan Burton today, things are heating up. The White House needs this like a hole in the head! ( BTW, Dan Burton is my Congressman. )

(Tue Dec 09 1997 02:46 - ID#257148)
Roll Alabama
Auric, anyone? 3 line intro to Ron Brown and his importance to youse crazy 'mericans

The Union won the war but the South had better songs


(Tue Dec 09 1997 02:53 - ID#257148)
Venuto c Pollock ....1/12

Dave in CO
(Tue Dec 09 1997 02:58 - ID#215211)
Are you from Indianapolis? Some pockets of radical conservativism there; e.g., Linda Thompson and a shortwave program I have listened to. I went to H.S. in Robinson, IL, about 100 miles to the S.W.

The A.F. emphasized today through the mainstream media that there was no bullet wound after putting a gag order on the first investigator. I don't expect the mainstream media will cover this development until their spin can be imparted.

Did you hear that the Justice Dept. loosed about 50 investigators on Dan Burton today?

John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 09 1997 02:59 - ID#24140)
On the money as usual
For Senor Vronsky

1. your site is great

2. Your or Bob M's comment on european/US establishment desire to

control RSA mineral wealth is the first good observation on RSA Ive

seen on this illustious site for ages ?? Ill drink a short vodka to that one.

Despite all the kudus and kisses for Mandela and company, I think

that the above establishment wants nothing more than RSA to fall on

its face.

I suspect that anglos represents a big part of the RSA establishment

defence team. Their takeover up of the JSI gold interest was so quick it

took my breath away. No foreigner got a look in. Too bad for JCI


This agenda has been in place for a long time IMHO. I believe that

these jerks were truly dissapointed to find the ANC as mild and toothless

as they turned out to be. They had also misread the LARGE colored

Afrikanns speaking population of RSA which is in no way anti white,

as well as the lack of ill-will between Blacks and Whites at grass

roots level.

Most of the trivial and predictable comments on this site concerning RSA ( that I waste a lot of time answering ) are pale echoes of this european/US based agenda.

This is one of the few conspiracy theories that I subscribe to.

Remember when RSA's long term loans were called in ( 1988?? ) by surpise??

Guess who - US banking establishment - weeping crocodile tears for

RSA Blacks. Then Sanctions on same premise led by Church of England,

Guardian, and US press. Funny how banks dont seem to mind throwing

same Blacks out of work in Gold mining now hey.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 03:01 - ID#257148)
sport channel
Nick@C Simon Waugh duck. aus 2/12

end broadcast from the MCG, possibly the most beautiful cricket ground on this golden planet

(Tue Dec 09 1997 03:04 - ID#393224)

(Tue Dec 09 1997 03:15 - ID#284255)
Custom Cushion Grabs Gas
Toot Trapping Seat Fights Flatulence, Could Save Marriages
Custom Cushion Grabs Gas
Xmas present for LGB

Microsoft vs. Justice, Round 1
"This will be the tip of iceberg. It's the beginning of a broader and deeper investigation from the Justice Department into Microsoft."
"What Microsoft is scared about now is that Justice is going to come after them for something else,"
"My guess is, by the time the court does anything, Windows 98 will be out and their Internet browser will be fully integrated."

Thai Finance Firms to Close
The scope of the liquidation surprised some analysts, who expected something much more modest.
The permanent closure of the firms is expected to leave between 5,000 and 10,000 workers unemployed, rattle the already battered stock market and spark a further drop in Thailand's currency, the baht, which has lost more than 40 percent of its value against the dollar.
The full closure of the 56 companies clears the way for Thailand to receive a second batch of bailout funds provided by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF had said closing most of the suspended companies was a "precondition" for the release of additional funds.
Thailand, which has used up $5.47 billion of the IMF bailout funds, has asked for an additional $3 billion.

After Leaving Company in July
Amelio Got $9.3M From Apple
"It's outrageous to give anybody $9 million if they're a failure."
$2 Billion Lost in 2 Years
In the past two years, Apple, based in Cupertino, Calif., has lost $2 billion and laid off thousands of workers.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 03:16 - ID#284255)
comments from the ether
The Fed and other central banks are massively manipulating markets by making credit available to major fund companies in the event of large redemptions and massive purchases of stock index futures. Next step after fast track will be the repeal of NAFTA and the breakup of WTO. This end of "free trade" will later be blamed for the collapse just as it erroneously was in the 1930s There can be no recovery in eastern and western Europe and in the developing world if for no other reason than the massive destruction of capital and liquidity. Love this one " It is doubtful whether anyone on Wall St or CNBC would recognize a bear market if they saw one. Our investment community and our media, having a vested interest, find it almost impossible to report any negative market news, but day after day find reason to attack gold. Of course attacking gold is politically correct, especially when done by giggling, semi-competent females. After the dead cat is kicked a few more times we'll have more cameo appearances by Greenspan and Rubin. This vaudeville team has the unenviable talk of acting as goats leading the sheep to slaughter. Greenspan tells of a "salutary correction" as Rubin says "the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are strong". Thus spoke their forebears in 1929. The bear is not an extinct species and the world is about to have it's memory jogged. Asia wants to form an Asia fund. It would be $100 billion fund which would be backed by gold. Washington's disinformation mills, would have the world think this unnecessary, so they and the other major nations could keep the weaker nations in bondage to the IMF. As the US is asked, along with other nations, for billions of dollars to bail out the bankers, governments and fat cats of the world, Congress is in no mood to supply endless subsidization. The House Finance Committee recently refued to give more funds to the IMF and the World Bank. It seems they are tired of bailing out the Riadys and other friends of Bill. Fast track was defeated and mark our words, this is a watershed. We can thank labor unions and Dick Gephardt. We now fear for Mr. Gephardt's political career and HIS LIFE. The president has now been neutralized to a great extent for the rest of his term. The move to demonetize gold and make it a commodity,as they did silver in 1969 has begun in earnest. The signal that the gloves are off was the pronouncement by the Bank of England, that gold would make up an insignificant percentage of future ECB reserves. The official announcement is to come in June. The is absolutely no question that gold is being manipulated to a lower level consistent with the aims of central banks. Out guess is they want to get it low enough so they can sell of whatever amount of reserves they please with little interference. Level probably between $250-285. The sales will be predominatley from European sources as they attempt to increase income and liquidity for a deliberatley weak euro. Australia sold 2/3 of their reserves, now 80% of their gold production will have to shut down. Sixty five banks are leasing gold for between a 1 & 3% return. Bundesbank said they absolutely have no intentions to sell gold. There is no hope of Swiss sales, but propaganda damage has been done. Who is manipulating the market? THE US FEDERAL RESERVE. Dale Henderson, a Fed economist says "that everyone would be better off if all official stocks were sold". All gov'ts are under tremendous debt loads, what better way to temporarily relieve the burden and perpetuate power. What's worse, these decisions are being made by non elected officials and in this case by a private owned Fed. These people don't need the security of gold. We have allowed them to be a power unto themselves.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 03:20 - ID#393224)
G'day Ore@ator. Nice to see such quality on this site lately. The yobbos seem to have gone off to greener pastures. Unfortunate that we have lost the good posters with multiple personalities. Some people just can't post if they have to be themselves.

Strange day on the markets. Gold down a dollar and my gold shares up 4k. Must be a message in that somewhere. Whatever it is, I hope we have many more gold-down-a-buck days. Perhaps the market is saying "These gold shares represent VALUE at these prices. Don't care what gold does. These things are cheap!!!"

(Tue Dec 09 1997 03:20 - ID#255151)
Peas and Cues

aurator--Carl Sandberg lives forever. Love them goober peas. Dave in CO--Only a passing familiarity with Thompson. I understand she has been investigating the Waco story and is very critical of the Feds' role. Dave, at this point who knows. The credibility of Janet Reno and the Executive Branch is just about zero. For the first time, I think a Presidential Impeachment in the House is very possible. Americans should not fear it. The Constitution has clear and specific procedures to remove a President.

Dave in CO
(Tue Dec 09 1997 03:22 - ID#215211)
Ron Brown was the chairman of the Dem. Nat. Committee when Clinton was elected in 1992 and was awarded the job of Sec. of Commerce. He was under an independent counsel investigation for taking a $700,000 bribe from a Vietnamese businessman, a $400,000 payment from someone else for no apparent work rendered, and various other problems and $ amounts I can't recall. The word on the street was that he wouldn't take the fall alone and would spill the beans on other guilty parties. He died in this plane crash around Apr., 1996, with a possible bullet wound to the head according to 2 investigators.

If the South won the war, we wouldn't have these problems. The Arkansas mafia must have originated as Carpetbaggers. "Wish I was in Dixie..."

(Tue Dec 09 1997 03:24 - ID#393224)
Suharto health scare. Indonesian rupiah down nearly 10%.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 03:33 - ID#284255)
Cmax - "ANOTHER"
Another's posts updated

Swing chart updated - distribution to begin.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 03:40 - ID#257148)
oh, is this the first time america has a wide boy for a president? SNAFU
Dave in Co appreciate your thumbnail sketch, hmmmm. pesky bullet wounds in heads huh?

btw just saw on the gnus that a skyscraper ( Hi Highrise! ) in Jakarta is a burnin, there has been loss of life, I think the overdub said it was in one of the two towers of the Bank of Indonesia? The other tower not yet finished, I smell insurance fraud.

Nick@C i is still here ( the 7 faces of  )

I agree, too damn civilised, like i said, i feel like I can't fart without being thrown out of this restaurant, look at all the forks!! silver forks!! which fork do you used to scoop out the heart of a goldbug.. ..

boris aurator

(Tue Dec 09 1997 04:03 - ID#433230)


(Tue Dec 09 1997 04:10 - ID#257148)

welcome we can all do with some..

(Tue Dec 09 1997 04:24 - ID#411259)
..... I felt the earth move, under my feet ......

Cmax ( @JTF ) ID#339320: Mon Dec 08 1997 23:0..Wrote:

"One reason I always thought the "flipping" of the earth's axis was nonsense, is because it would be nearly impossible for any external force short of a direct collision with an asteroid to impart enough energy to tip the earth. However, how

does one explain the fact that the south pole ( I think it was ) was once tropical? "

So ( Me Now ) ..

Apparently there is some talk hereabouts concerning the flipping or non-flipping of the earth. Have I got it? The two schools of thought here are that the earth flipped or it did not flip. Is that about right? Not many shades of gray here to mull over.

I am no a scientist and this is something I know very little about. But as I understand it, there is strong evidence the earth had "flipped" on its axis numerous times in our worlds history. Cmax supposes that the sufficient force to tip the earth is somewhat greater than that needed to tip the nearest jersey cow. He postulates a, "direct collision with an asteroid to impart enough energy to tip the earth". While I'm sure the are other ways of apply external force to the planet to bring about this sought after tip-o-the-earth, none of these are necessary. Mother Earth has all she needs to do it on her own..

I ran across a theory in the 70's that described this periodic "tipping" in terms of centrifugal force. The presenter then called our attention to a series of slides being shown on a large white screen. Near a small representation of the earth were columns and rows of statistical looking numbers. These numbers and the common sense of pure science point to a world that undergoes violent capsizing on a regular basis every 3 - 7 thousand years.

The force need to bring about this capsizing is the eccentricity inherent in the orbit or spin of any massive object. The idea is brilliant as a self contained hypothesis of periodic global upheaval.

As the ice builds at the northern and southern poles, it does so in a random and uneven manner, sometimes burying flats with meters of snow and ice that in years gone past were just windswept ice fields. Because of this unevenly distributed new weight, mother earth finds herself with a slight anomaly in her rotation. The uneven weight of the spinning snowcaps at the poles creates a slight "wobble" in the rotation of the earth. We are not spinning around our axis on a smooth and even ride, we wobble as we go around. This wobble will be measured differently at different times, but the last info I had was that the current wobble in earth's rotation is about 4.25 inches off-center.

Given that the earth wobbles, the rest of the theory springs naturally from the laws of physics to its inevitable conclusion. OK, now let's see what we got We got a wobble in the earth rotations because of unevenly distributed mass around the poles. During a period of cooling - that seems to happen at least every 5000 years - the ice caps at the pole continue to grow. The wobble will increase with the added weight. At a critical point the wobble overcomes the rotation and, for a brief instant, the centrifugal becomes the dominant force..

Let's think back to physics 101 where we learn about centrifugal force. The same force that causes a skater to spin ever faster as arms are drawn in, is demonstrated at the other end of the spectrum, although, with different results. The fastest point on any sinning body is at the equator. The physics of centrifugal force tells us the heaviest point of a spinning body would make its way to the fasted point of spin - the equator.

As the theory goes, when the ice caps begin to get too massive and thereby cause an increase in the eccentricity of earth's rotation, when this process reaches the point of no return, the earth immediately capsizes. The poles are thrown out to the equator, and some equatorial paradise is now shivering in its new role as keeper of the poles.. There would be only 2 relatively safe areas on earth from the total distraction that would follow the fundamental rearrangement of sea and land. The two pivot points on opposite sides of the earth could offer some protection against the apocalypse throughout the rest of the globe.

I'm not saying I buy into this theory, but it does seem to explain some of what we see better than other explanations I've heard. I only offered this in response to Cmax assertion that only an outside force could cause the earth to capsize.


(Tue Dec 09 1997 04:36 - ID#393224)
G'nite sun
Sunset between Sydney ( dark ) and Canberra ( light )


(Tue Dec 09 1997 04:41 - ID#39845)
gold mining companies could try getting back to basics might be of help to some.
Anyone know what a company does when its hedging per year outstrips
its annual production by 20% ?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 04:41 - ID#257148)
Then again I've never held a platinum coin in my hand... sigh...
Auric what would Charles Fort think of this tippy-up earth theory, any ideas?

then again, RJ, if you promise not to dabble in fringe science, I promise not to move to Irvine ( imagine how annoying that could be )

a taste of Fort

Battalions of the Accursed
A procession of the damned.
By the damned, I mean the excluded.
We shall have a procession of data that Science has excluded.
Battalions of the accursed, captained by pallid data that I have exhumed, will march.You'll read them--or they'll march. Some of them livid and some of them fiery and some of them rotten. Some of them are corpses, skeletons, mummies, twitching, tottering, animated by companions that have been damned alive. There are giants that will walk by, though sound asleep. There are things that are theorems and things that are rags; they'll go by lik e Euclid, arm in arm with the spirit of anarchy. Here and there will flit little harlots. Many are clowns. But many are of the highest respectability. Some are assassins. There are pale stenches and gaunt superstitions and mere shadows and lively malices: whims and amiabilities. The naive and the pedantic and the bizarre and the grotesque and the sincere and the insincere, the profound and the puerile.


(Tue Dec 09 1997 04:44 - ID#226355)
I have been lurking for some time and I would like to thank Kitco for the format and everyone for the mix and information and entertainment that this site provides. Aurator-While it is not my homeland the description of a Tui makes me homesick. Please give my regards to a Fantail ( always my favorite ) . Auric- Congratulations on your purchase and ownership of the yellow stuff. I have dug so much up over the years that I forget that it is more than just yellow rocks. My apoligies not very insightful stuff. I guess I will have to read more of ANOTHER or LGB....back to Lurking

(Tue Dec 09 1997 04:44 - ID#22956)
What are you still doin up????
Underwater-Boy - nice weather huh?? Can't sleep?? Go for the high ground!!!!!!!

Hello down are the 'rigones 2-nite?? NickC, Sharefin, Aurateacolumnforyouanytime.......?? Fires? Storms?? Roos?? Rotties and bears oh my????.......

Tis late and the rain stopped. Now we have freezing temps so the rain wil stay AWAY for a while. Can't have snow here ya' the low country anyway......



(Tue Dec 09 1997 04:51 - ID#393224)
Past yer bedtime, I know. One of us is gettin' old, mate. Perhaps if you should read this tomorrow, after your beauty sleep. Simon Waugh=Steven Templar?? Or just a faux pas--you know, when the dog sticks his foot in his mouth. Nick--the Saintly cricketer.

John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 09 1997 04:52 - ID#24140)
Disgusting isnt it?
For Oris

Due disgusting slide in platinum price, forced to lower my horrid

forecast for gold price. That is - first support - 376*0.74 = 278 -

a bounce maybe ?? last support 0.69*376 = 260.

Please send vodka.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 04:54 - ID#257148)
The history of science in a short incomprehesible paragraph
Nick@C she's a beautiful werl. thanks for the view..

Moody gone for a duck, 6/97, S Africa looking good!

RJ immediate regret at my saltiness, :- ( to continue
of corse, thass the thing about our knowledge, we don't know half of what we think we do, and there's a whole bunch of stuff way outside our ken. The earth spinning round the sun? Dinasaurs? Evolution? Electricity? human Flight etc etc? paper money? all incomprehensible to the greatest geniuses a scant 500 years ago.... ( well i can pick holes in it too )

I am packing my bags...;- ) )

Ir ir

(Tue Dec 09 1997 04:58 - ID#22956)
Check you pile for.....whoaaa! That pile stinks...ya' better leave it alone. are laying down some fighting words. Don't make me Auratonya'!! dammit! call T. Kasynski in jail for diagrams........sssssssss...boom!


oh yeah.........gogold

(Tue Dec 09 1997 05:04 - ID#393224)
Gold and Cricket
John Disney/Auratious-- Aussie cricketers looking about as healthy as the price of gold. Both could be out for less than 150 at this rate.

Producer--welcome. Stick around--we need more people on this site with dirt under their fingernails. Preferably mixed with a bit of gold dust.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 05:07 - ID#22956)
You kill me dude. But, alas, time to remove the toothpicks and saw logs. I must go to the cozy bed and have her kiss all 7 of my faces. uh huh.... Nick@C and Nick@Aussie will hold the antipodean fort for ya' while you get some auratorwinkywinks.

John Disney....when your finished slugging down some vodka, pass it over hear. I like mine with melon......mmmmmm good...AND stale bread....go plat....ugh gold...

Night all........zzzzzzzzzzzzzz the rack


(Tue Dec 09 1997 05:08 - ID#257148)
for the birds
Producer do come back soon. The fantail is my sister's totem. The fantail flits and darts around the heads of the rambler. This habit has earned it the name The guardian of the forest ( My Maori not up to it ) , as its name suggest, its tail opens like a concertina to become a beautiful filligree ivory fan seeming to envelop this sparrow sized bird. It is very friendly, coincidentally a fantail flew inside this evening, it was flying against some inside windows, didn't mind being helped outside very much at all.

Beautiful Jewel in ChCh ( flowers in her motel room ) so have not gone to bed.

ps why the "t" prefered auracious, oh well..

zzzzzzz nite all

(Tue Dec 09 1997 05:09 - ID#22956)
Looks like profit taking on the buck ( $ ) . Buy the dips?? hmmmmmm...



(Tue Dec 09 1997 05:10 - ID#255151)

aurator--My first thought is that this whole pole shift thing is nuttier than a yuletide fruitcake. But... it is a fact that they find evidence of a previous tropical climate in polar regions. Best to ask a geologist. Any Lurking Geological Bugs out there who could explain it to us?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 05:23 - ID#255151)

Producer--seconding Mr. aurator. Jump right in to the fray. Everyone has something to contribute to the Kitco forum. Hell, I don't know anything and I still post.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 05:33 - ID#257148)
Aussie looking sick, but it ain't over - I dont like cricket, i love it..
Nick@C ya noticed the steven/simon slip and 'membered Templar!

When the saints, come marching in
Oh when the saints come marching in

here with the angels

the gardening angels

where my gnomes? my golden gnomes? 'night .. really.

Morning TED and the Up Overs

 a champ

(Tue Dec 09 1997 05:36 - ID#226355)
Auric and Fruitcake; pulled in from lurking
I know this is off subject, but tropical fossils in temperate\arctic enviroments are easily explained by continental drift. Increased arctic ice might increase axial wobble but concluding a dramatic spatial shift
shift is quite a stretch

(Tue Dec 09 1997 05:42 - ID#257148)
S Africa beats Australia

John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 09 1997 05:52 - ID#24140)
cricket is fun
for nick and aurator

I saw it and I dont believe it - and Donald didnt even take a wicket.

Go simcox - he's closing in on Foreman in the Geriatric Hall of Fame

Champeeship. Simon me no Templars - How about Sam Warne and Shane Spade??

(Tue Dec 09 1997 05:53 - ID#284255)
more down charts
These charts sort of resemble gold.
Have they bottomed or are the just bouncing, before the next plunge?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 05:55 - ID#78117)
Has a front of business section article on the decline in the price of gold. The article points out that the central banks have sold bullion every year since 1989 and have dumped 1.6% of their gold reserves this year. At that rate, the will run out of gold in about 65 years....

The article also refered to a study by the US Federal reserve that recommended the US sell off its gold holdings, pushing the price even lower for the benefit of gold consumers, particular chip manufacturers.
If that were to happen, the more recent drop in the price of gold would look like a tea party.

Central banks areound the world are turning to US paper as a reserve, as I have said all alog, in an age where information is the source of value gold can only decline in price over the long term.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 06:19 - ID#257148)
red shift ain't just night wear (do you use the word neglig?)
Well as long a we're so busy.... what happened here?
salty shut down his puta ( mac LC630 ) , and then turned off TV using infra red control and the puta boots up.

The unsafe world of digital infra-red

where do you find infra-red prophylactics? ?



(Tue Dec 09 1997 06:33 - ID#333131)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.41

(Tue Dec 09 1997 06:41 - ID#284255)
reading between the lines
Global and Asian Curencies and Indices - charts
All four sets of charts are worth a look at and bookmarking.

Repeat - reading between the lines.
Asian flu infects LIBOR-based U.S. mortgage market
NEW YORK, Dec 8 ( Reuters ) - Asian market turmoil has spilled over into an unlikely market segment -- U.S. mortgage securities.
LIBOR is the rate at which major international banks are willing to offer term eurodollar deposits to each other.
Japanese institutions, as a result of a banking crisis there, have had to pump up rates to attract funds.
``If any Reference Bank designated by Freddie Mac should be removed from the Reuters Screen LIBO Page or in any other way fails to meet the qualifications of a Reference Bank, Freddie Mac may, in its sole discretion, designate an alternative Reference Bank.''
``right thing would be to remove them ( Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi ) from the screen,''
``The reference banks should be true reference banks, reflecting a large liquid market,''

(Tue Dec 09 1997 06:43 - ID#284255)
Nikkei news
Go to Top Stories for:
Hashimoto Cabinet Approval Hits Record Low 35%: Nikkei Poll
Mull New Govt Bond To Stabilize Financial System: Hashimoto
Revised Anti-Monopoly Law To Take Effect Dec 17
Some Diversified Firms Eye Holding Company System
Two Nikko Group Firms To Combine Overseas Branches
U.S. Proposes Compromise On Targets At Kyoto Conference

(Tue Dec 09 1997 06:45 - ID#284255)
Financial System Stress And Sovereign Credit Risk
CreditWeek Cover Feature
Financial System Stress And Sovereign Credit Risk
As recent experience has emphasized, banking system soundness is essential to a country's macroeconomic stability, effective demand management, and sustained economic growth. When banks fail, governments frequently provide liquidity, back deposits, assume bad loans, and inject equity capital. Because they are a source of both direct and indirect costs to the government, privately and publicly owned banks are contingent liabilities of the government and form an integral part of sovereign credit analysis.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 06:47 - ID#35767)
Gold Sales
If Cbs are selling only 1.6 % of reserves then that can not be having a big effect on price. The leasing is having an effect and alot has been leased. Peculiar that the dunning gold articles appear as there is a worldwide debt crisi developing.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:01 - ID#26793)
The fundamentals are sound?
Boeing Says Asian Crisis May Delay 60 Deliveries Over 3

Years Boeing Co. said the Asian financial crisis may delay the delivery of as many as 60 of its
jetliners over the next three years because of slower growth in airline traffic in the region. The
world's biggest aircraft maker could see up to 20 deliveries a year pushed back between now and
2000. Boeing still expects to deliver the jetliners in the following years, starting in 2001, when
economies there rebound.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:05 - ID#26793)
More on Ron Brown

A second Armed Forces medical examiner comes forward on Tuesday
to publicly confirm statements made by a colleague about the
death of Commerce Secretary Ron Brown, the DRUDGE REPORT has

U.S. Army Lt. Col David Hause will tell the PITTSBURGH
TRIBUNE-REVIEW on Tuesday that he personally examined a
suspicious head wound on Brown's corpse while it was being
examined at Dover Air Force Base.

A commotion erupted on the examination table, Hause tells
reporter Chris Ruddy, when the head wound was first discovered.
He describes how the wound "looked like a punched-out
.45-caliber entrance hole."

Hause goes public with the account less than a week after Air
Force Lt. Col. Steve Cogswell made similar accusations.

Two ranking military officers have now put their careers and
reputations on the line in what is quickly becoming a nightmare
scenario for official Washington.

The wound was documented, photographed, and X-rayed, in a
medical examination at Dover Air Force base, according to both

But Hause now says that all x-rays and photos of Brown's head
are missing from the case file at the Armed Forces Institute of
Pathology facility in Rockville, Maryland.

Last Friday, Hause tells the paper, he was asked to review the
Brown file with Dr. Jerry Spencer, the AFIP's chief medical
examiner. They laid out all of the x-rays and discovered that,
indeed, no x-rays of Brown's head were in the file. According to
Hause, all that remains of the head x-rays are photographic
slide images that are in the possession of Cogswell. Copies of
the images have found their way to the TRIBUNE-REVIEW.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:05 - ID#284255)
Some additional ways to make (or lose) money
Soybeans held the support which I was discussing last Thursday......As long as July'98 ( my current contract play ) holds above Thursday's lows, the longs should be safe........ The d-mark and swiss franc are still in sideways trading pattterns with a negative bias......any closing high above last weeks highs would tilt me back to being bullish, but seems unlikely......The Japanese Yen is still firmly entrenched in the short side, and shorts should feel good about prospects for further deterioration......Cotton appears to be shaking out some longs-- I am watching for a quick steep drop as my buying opportunity; I don't feel comfortable shorting it at these levels.....Silver still seems to be the strongest commodity out there, and with any $20 or more move in gold, we should see $6.00 plus silver prices.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:16 - ID#26793)
Korean situation so bad "we don't know what to do"

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:17 - ID#339320)
@RJ's asteroids

RJ said: Cmax supposes that the sufficient force to tip the
earth is somewhat greater than that needed to tip the
nearest jersey cow. He postulates a, "direct collision with
an asteroid to impart enough energy to tip the earth".

Sorry RJ, I never said that. Let me repost what I wrote last
night in response to JTF:

Date: Mon Dec 08 1997 23:01
Cmax ( @JTF ) ID#339320:
JTF said: "The second question relates to the earth.
One reason I always thought the "flipping" of the
earth's axis was nonsense, is because it would be
nearly impossible for any external force short of a
direct collision with an asteroid to impart enough
energy to tip the earth. However, how does one
explain the fact that the south pole ( I think it was )
was once tropical? "

Sorry, this is a non gold response to a valued
The Earth did not "flip" on it's axis in order to
change it's magnetic poles, the magnetic FORCE of
the poles flipped. Just look ant any marine chart, at
the compass will see MAGNETIC
VARIATION quantities indicated, with their
respective ANNUAL increase or decrease. In other
words, the magnetic POLES are ALWAYS moving,
every day of every year, and without taking this into
consideration, a dead reckoning navigator could
never obtain a reasonably accurate fix ( position ) .
Geologically, a 100,000 years is just a blink of an
eye, and the magnetic poles could concivably
"swap" positions during this time, as one pole, as it
is moving annually, will generally cause the other
pole to move, as it's contradictory force.


You see RJ, the world did not capsize due to its
eccentricity, it is a constant shifting of the magnetic poles
that changes, and is constantly chaging. The geographic
north pole never coincides with the magnetic north pole,
and this drifting of the magnetic poles would in fact place
it, at certain geologic timeframes, over what we would
know today as the equatorial tropical regions. Also,
remember that it was determined that the earth had
changed poles ( not axis ) by the arrangement of ferrous
materials within sedimentary earth cores, which would
have the age of its layers determined by carbon dating,
containing within it the DIRECTION of the alignment of
the ferrite. ( Just as steel filing change their direction when
you pass a small magnet close by ) . Presto, you have
determined when and where the magnetic poles moved.
No outside forces or asteroids ( you read an awful lot into
my posting RJ ) .

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:20 - ID#325284)
Recently found this message at

Although not applied uniformly across the board, Standard & Poor's CreditWire announced that due to the severe decrease in gold prices it has lowered the ratings of many gold mining companies. In some cases the new lowered ratings reflect the corporate outlook like Echo Bay Mines ( ECO:TSE,ME ) and Royal Oak Mines ( ROY:TSE ) , while in others it is a downgrading of the credit watch to negative status for firms such as Placer Dome ( PDG:TSE,ME,NYSE ) and Homestake ( HM:NYSE,TSE ) .

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:24 - ID#390214)
South Korea: Debt tops $100bn(S.K. denies allegations it deceived IMF)
Seoul denied allegations that it had deceived the IMF negotiating its $57bn

rescue. During negotiations, it claimed that short-term debt obligations

amounted to $65.6bn, which excluded $51.2bn in "non-resident borrowing"

by Korean entities.


By John Burton in Seoul

South Korea's debt crisis took a sudden turn for the worse yesterday as the

finance ministry admitted the country's short-term debt exceeded $100bn

( 60bn ) , nearly double the amount it claimed during last week's rescue

negotiations with the International Monetary Fund.

The new figure, which includes borrowings by overseas subsidiaries of

Korean companies and banks, came as local media reported the country's

foreign currency reserves were almost exhausted.

Seoul denied allegations that it had deceived the IMF negotiating its $57bn

rescue. During negotiations, it claimed that short-term debt obligations

amounted to $65.6bn, which excluded $51.2bn in "non-resident borrowing"

by Korean entities.

But the new estimate for Korea's short-term debt has added to doubts in

financial markets about whether the funds provided in the IMF's record

bail-out will be enough to cover the nation's obligations to foreign lenders.

The Korean currency, the won, fell to a record low of 1,342.40 to the US

dollar, while fears of a growing corporate credit crunch prompted a 4.8 per

cent plunge in the Seoul bourse.

The Chosun Ilbo, a leading newspaper, yesterday quoted a leaked IMF

report as saying that Korea's foreign currency reserves had dwindled to only

$5bn last week from $30.5bn at the end of October as Seoul struggled to

meet loan payments by indebted investment banks.

In a tacit confirmation of the report, the finance ministry said it would protest

to the IMF about the leak, which it said damaged Korea's credibility and

threatened the stability of its financial markets.

Korea has received $5.6bn in its first tranche from the IMF and expects

another $3.6bn after December 18, when the IMF will complete its first

review of Seoul's progress in implementing loan terms. It is estimated that

Korea must pay $20bn by year's end.

Stanley Fischer, the IMF first deputy managing director, said recently that

Korea was only days away from a "financial catastrophe" when the IMF

intervened in late November, but analysts have warned that there are already

signs the government is trying to evade the spirit of its IMF programme.

Easy financing terms for the purchase announced yesterday by Daewoo of the

troubled Ssangyong Motors could add to the pressure on Korea's troubled

banking system. Repayment of Ssangyong's Won3,400bn debt will be

delayed between 5 and 10 years, while interest payments will be much lower

than current corporate lending rates.

"It is just loading the weak banks with more liabilities," said Henry Morris,

managing director for Coryo International.

The government yesterday took over troubled SeoulBank, through the

purchase of Won1,100bn in new shares. This was the second government

rescue of a main commercial bank this year following the rescue of Korea

First Bank.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:25 - ID#255151)
Ron Brown

Donald--This is getting closer to a familiar area for me. I read Dr. Cogswell's statement before he was muzzled. It had the ring of truth and credibility to it, from my perspective. Yesterday the Air Force said a gunshot wound had been ruled out by the examining Pathologist. Today a courageous Air Force Physician stepped forward to contradict that, and back up Dr. Cogswell's findings. This is a cover up plain and simple. The White House and Air Force Brass have some very serious questions they must answer now.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:30 - ID#333131)
Looks like the second wave of the great whirling world wide financial melt down is beginning. That's www.fmd.imf

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:35 - ID#26793)
Korean riots are a certainty

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:41 - ID#26793)
There have been so many stories of this nature it is difficult to dismiss them all as the ravings of "right wing nuts"

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:46 - ID#255151)
Watergate Redux
Some wiseacre came up with a name for this latest scandal-- Pearly Gate.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:50 - ID#27454)
Karilito99 post and infromation
True today value is placed on the exchange of infromation. But what would happen to that value if the infromation could not be exchanged. The 2YK problem could bring this into focus. What will be the value of communication and infromation if it cannot be exchanged. If your power company crashes and your computer becomes useless the exchange of infromation will stop.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:51 - ID#26793)
Prediction of riots by millions of unemployed and homeless Chinese

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:54 - ID#426220)
Bre-X Survivor Clarifies Why He Invested
An obscure but brilliant analyst in 1995 discovered for himself the incredible potential of the Bre-X gold mine in Indonesia. His analysis was based on only the data available to the public. At that time the analyst was an employee in a credit institution in Alberta, Canada. He is none other than John Kutyn, who IMHO is one of the most perceptive and accurate analyzers of the brewing South-East Asian currency and stock market debacle - which is rapidly precipitating the DOMINO EFFECT... capable of bringing the Japanese Banking system to its knees.

His story is as factual as it is indeed fascinating. Although his analysis was based upon fraudulent information fabricated by the unscrupulous management of Bre-X, his evaluation was nonetheless flawless. It is indeed a captivating read...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:56 - ID#390214)
India gold news
Scotia Mocatta opens gold retail window: Scotia Mocatta on

Monday launched its gold retail window in India. The business will

be conducted from the Nova Scotia Bank's branch in Mumbai.

The bank's gold desk will sell gold from its stock in Mumbai and

supply gold to other banks with importing licences. The bank

plans to offer a wide range of products in the domestic market like

gold loan scheme, options and certificates.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 07:57 - ID#26793)
S&P analysis of worldwide bank safety &link to Credit Week

(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:00 - ID#371471)
Year End and the Central Bank
The problems the CB's will be facing as the year comes to an end is
the same that mutual funds face each quarter: the urge to window
dress. With Argentina's sales and Australia's, and Belgium's, and
the Netherlands' and those of Canada now looking wise beyond words,
those central banks still holding gold must show that they've sold
some, at some price, some time, so that they can hold their heads
at least reasonably high when they all meet again at the next BIS

CB's are no different then the rest of us: they panic when bad
decision are made, and they panic when gold's push comes to
reserve holding shoves... and the shove at least for now remains


(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:02 - ID#174103)
BGR Precious Metals
Anybody have an opinion on this closed-end fund? It trades at a 34% discount to NAV.

Some info at:

(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:10 - ID#31868)
Donald A
I pity the people in China. Violent crackdown by government in China means wholesale murder of unarmed civilians. Killing like it is free.

And America invited the Student Murdering Weasel to ring the bell at the stock exchange, paraded him around and made business deals with him.

Yeah, this President is the leader of the free world. Right, isn't he?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:17 - ID#426220)
Only the Nikkei with massive BOJ influence pressuring Nippon financial institutions managed a respectable gain in Tuesday trading... which belies the worsening Domino Effect gripping all Asia, and already spilling over into Russia and Brazil. South Korea alone plummeted 6.5% for the session.

Just by extending massive loans to Asian Banks, the IMF IS NOT ADDRESSING THE ESSENCE OF THE PROBLEM: Which is simply that the borrowers cannot repay their debts! UNFORTUNATELY, ASIAN Debtors bit off more than they can chew financially.

It doesn't take a double Ph.D. in Mathematics AND Finance to understand the ludicrous folly of the Asian Banking Debacle looming on the horizon of the Land of the SETTING Sun... and the horrific ramifications which inevitably will ensue.

THIS is the LATEST analysis of the Asian Banking Domino Effect by John Kutyn -

(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:24 - ID#426220)
REF: Carl ( www.fmd.imf ) --- Carl, pls verify the location as nothing comes up. Thx

(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:26 - ID#420116)
USA TODAY article on gold
So, the US has 220,000,000 ozs. of gold. Thats about $64 billion.

Enough to cover the deficite for almost three months. Maybe they

should just give all us citizens one ounce each. Then we would not

have to worry about all those poor mine workers getting laid off.

Not enough to go around you say? No problem, we have plenty of money,

we can buy the rest from the other CB's. One ounce each and everyone

will be happy. The investers, the citizens, the reserve, the miners,

the politicians and on and on and on and . . . . .

Oh oh! It's . . Yes, a messge from the next millennium. Another USA

Today article from Y2K. . .

Y2K Update - Cotton prices fall following Fed. comments.

After several weeks of decline, cotton prices continue to plummet,

following Fed. comments that cotton would no longer be used in

production of the dollar.

"It just isn't fare" said a cotton analyst, who asked not to be identified, "This could not have come at a more unfavorable time

for the cotton industry! There is no bottom in site for plant

closings and layoffs to the cotton workers".

In other news, gold ended the day up $6.00 to close at $2065.00/oz.,

silver was up a buck at $73.00 in moderate trading.


(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:27 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton Coal Mining(is a farce)
Just what 'we' need another undersea high sulpher coal mine whose coal prices are totally uncompetitive with the rest of the world:

To next story
To briefs

Talk back!

Tuesday, December 9, 1997

Devco runs short of lumps of coal

Ottawa blamed for `threat' to C.B. industry as NSP
buys from U.S.


All three political parties concurred yesterday that the future of
Cape Breton coal needs to be debated; they just couldn't agree
on how.

The Liberals used their majority to defeat NDP Leader Robert
Chisholm's call for an emergency debate on the issue, after
Premier Russell MacLellan made it clear he didn't want
Chisholm's motion to proceed.

MacLellan argued Chisholm's motion "misstated" the issue by
contending Nova Scotia Power's decision to import 180,000
tonnes of American coal was a "threat to the Cape Breton coal
industry." The real problem is Ottawa's unwillingness to
support a long-term plan for Devco that includes development
of the Donkin mine, MacLellan said.

"The emergency comes from the fact that the federal
government has not done anything to ease the concerns of the
people in that area," he said.

Three-mine plan

"We favor movement immediately, either in whole or in part,
by the federal government toward the development of the
Donkin mine."

Chisholm countered that his motion included the need for
federal support of a three-mine plan for Devco, including the
Prince, Phalen and Donkin mines.

"Devco is doomed unless there is a three-mine plan that is put
into place," Chisholm said.

NSP had been relying on Phalen to supply cleaner coal to mix
with Prince coal, but repeated roof falls at Phalen have forced
NSP to buy U.S. coal twice this year. The utility - Devco's only
customer - also purchased 180,000 tonnes - equal to a little
more than three weeks of peak production at Phalen - from the
U.S. this January. Donkin has cleaner coal, but that mine is
flooded, and bringing it back into production may be a difficult
and expensive prospect.

"It's lost sales - there's no question about it," Devco marketing
director Thomas Fleming said yesterday. "We're disappointed
that we had this problem and our customer ... had to go
somewhere else."

Phalen is expected to be back in production by Dec. 15. The
mine's 800 employees have been developing new areas and
working to repair damage from a roof-fall in October. There
have been no layoffs.

"God's just putting a few little obstacles in front of us," Fleming

Fleming said NSP used to buy about 20 per cent less coal from
Devco, and keeping up with demand means the mine has to be
producing flat-out with few interruptions.

"Most mining companies run into these kind of problems; that's
part of doing business," he said.

NSP spokeswoman Stephanie Ryan said the U.S. coal, which is
similar in quality to Devco coal, will begin arriving at the end of
the month. It will be burned at power plants at Point Tupper
and Trenton.

Tory Leader John Hamm said 1,700 Cape Bretoners are
employed at the Prince and Phalen mines, and the island's
economy would be "devastated" if the coal industry fails.

MacLellan said he understood the employment figure to be
closer to 1,300, but he didn't argue the potential dire
consequences for Cape Breton. He said he will urge Prime
Minister Jean Chretien later this week during the first ministers
conference to commit to developing Donkin with federal funds,
or through a private-sector partnership.

`Amazing conversion'

Hamm said that was an "amazing conversion" for MacLellan,
who sat "absolutely silent" as MP for Cape Breton-The
Sydneys while the Chretien government implemented a plan for
Devco that did not include Donkin. MacLellan argued he is on
record as having pushed for Donkin as an MP.

Cape Breton West Tory Alfie MacLeod questioned why none
of the Grit MLAs from Cape Breton voted in favor of debating
the situation at Devco. Loss of the industry would be felt
throughout the Nova Scotia, MacLeod added.

"If the coal industry goes down and 2,000 people go out of
work, that's going to affect people in Yarmouth and it's going to
affect people in downtown Halifax," he said.

Local | National | World | Sports | Matinee | Life | Business | Computers |
Opinion | Mou's Cartoon | Letters | Hotline |
Events | Horoscope | Comics | Caption Contest | Hit Halifax! | Staff |

(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:35 - ID#249409)
re:bgr precious metals close-end fund
I have looked at BGR recently too.
-run by Goodman and Goodman - geologist backgrounds, now
fund managers
-deal more in juniors than most gold mutual funds
-also manage the Dynamic Precious Metals fund in
Canada ( you can check their webpage for an idea of
their philosophy - something like ) ( ? )
-interesting note - for the past few years they have
traded at a discount of around 20%. Now over 30%
discount - another sign of investor bearishness in
- I may dip my toe in and buy a bit soon - the large
discount lessens some downside risk, and a return
to normal discounts ( or better, if gold bounces a bit )
could give a better bang for your buck

Good luck! - and, oh yes, go gold!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:35 - ID#188244)


(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:36 - ID#426220)
INGER SEES S&P500 AT 1000 BEFORE RESPITE (December 9, 1997)
CNBC financial celebrity and eminent analyst par excellence, Gene Inger, provides us a dissection of last weeks action, and shares his prognosis of that to come in various markets:

(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:36 - ID#31868)
I see a world around us in turmoil. The people all over Asia are watching their world get turned upside down. Africa has been all but forgotten. In India they are near revolution. Australia is suffering a tremendous down turn. Canada stressed and down. South and Central America broke and desperate. The Middle East is a cauldron of hatred and waits gleefully for the "Holy" war. Europe confused and spent. The former Soviet Union fragmented and ripe for war based on cultural, religious and political scars that run deep and wide.

The United States sits fat and pretty in the eyes of many. But I say that scared money fills her stocking on the mantle. The world owns our exported debt. We eat, drink and make ready for the Holiday Merry.

There is much afoot and when all of these things reach the flash point America will be far different and our global community will be in total disarray.

In my humble opinion the point of flash is dangerously near.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:41 - ID#188244)
Help me, LGB
So LGB, please explain why two Air Force pathologists destroy their careers by coming forward about Ron Brown. Movie rights? Maybe the maintainance guy at the airport who 'commited suicide' shot Brown first. Yeah, it was a racially motivated hate crime, and Clinton will score big by denouncing such hate crimes. I'm beginning to understand how to think like your ilk.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:43 - ID#225283)
Korean situation

The current Korean situation , considering the IMF leak,is a wonderful illustration of how things can get to the brink of collapse and most of the world meanders along completely clueless.

Should the solvent people of the world continue to fund the bailout of insolvent nations,... or should we give in to the worldwide credit implosion and join the other nations in the deflation deep end of the worldwide pool party.

Which solvent nations will refuse to take a dip?

How long can those nations that are already in the pool continue to tread water?

Wouldn't you say it is the same as a lifeguard
( lifesaver ) attempting to save a drowning person and instead of removing the distressed swimmer from the pool

...the lifeguard makes a quick analysis of the problem he notes that: the drowning Korean states he is 5ft tall, the life guard know his own height 6ft tall,the pool is 12ft deep but only filed with 10ft of water. the lifeguard increases the waterflow into the pool to maximum, and jumps into the deep end of the pool and tells the Korean to stand on his shoulders while he stands on the bottom of the pool. He explains that this should give him enough time to catch his breath afterwhich he can continue to tread water whilst the life guard catches his own breath for a momment and they shall continue the arraingement until the waterlevel evaporates to a point where the Korean can stand on the bottom of the deep end with his head above water.





The last thing the IMF lifeguard hears is a muffled cry to the World Bank lifeguard for help...the cry goes unheard because the World Bank Lifeguard is busy giving the China baby swimming lessons in the middle of the "Debt Ocean.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:49 - ID#225283)
Trade figures

Europe has annouced they now have a trade surplus with the US. Welcome to the club.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:51 - ID#258427)
Love the analogy ... makes the point quite clearly...Go Gold!!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 08:53 - ID#31868)
great, for whom?
Tuesday December 9, 6:57 am Eastern Time

Swiss merger cheers investors, depresses workers

By Michael Shields

ZURICH, Dec 9 ( Reuters ) - A Swiss bank mega-merger drove banks shares up but the popular mood sharply down on Tuesday, highlighting the growing divide between winners and losers when giant firms wed.

Investors hailed the merger of Union Bank of Switzerland ( UBS.S ) ( UBS ) and Swiss Bank Corp ( SBVZn.S ) ( SBC ) into the world's second-biggest bank, but Swiss commentators focused instead on the 13,000 jobs to go -- 7,000 of them in Switzerland.

``The marriage worth billions. Is it really good for us?'' the country's biggest-selling newspaper, Blick, asked in a giant front-page headline.

``The loss of 7,000 jobs is scary. Experts fear the fragile economic recovery could be choked off because Swiss fear for their jobs. They save rather than spend,'' it said.

UBS and SBC shares, which jumped following the merger announcement after gaining in fevered speculation last week, continued rising as investors cheered the plan.

Other banks and insurers also rose on speculation that a global wave of financial-sector consolidation could trigger more big mergers.

The blue-chip Swiss Market Index flirted with an all-time high again after setting a record on Monday.

``Shock over bank merger'' was the headline in Zurich's Tages-Anzeiger newspaper, which like practically every newspaper in the land made job cuts the focus of reports and commentary.

``A company should not force unacceptable things on people. It has to respect the rights and demands of workers, suppliers and customers. Social responsibility is at stake. UBS cannot escape this just because of its new size,'' Tages-Anzeiger commented.

The two banks already said last year they planned to cut a total of 2,500 jobs in Switzerland, it said.

The doubt and scepticism newspapers expressed were a sharp departure from traditional Swiss support for red-blooded capitalism, although the domestic economy has been largely protected in the past from the coldest blasts of competition.

But as this changes, Swiss companies have chopped thousands of jobs to slim down and boost profits amid cut-throat global competition, creating a sense of insecurity and even fear among Swiss who until recently could count on having a job for life.

In a country where two percent of the population holds half the wealth, the discrepancy between the winners and losers from giant mergers is causing friction and prompting calls for a capital gains tax on huge bourse profits.

The city of Basle, which lost thousands of jobs when Ciba-Geigy and Sandoz merged last year into pharmaceuticals group Novartis ( NOVZn.S ) , took the merger especially hard.

The 125-year-old SBC is based there, but will now disappear into the merged United Bank of Switzerland based in Zurich.

``The Novartis story touched a nerve in Basle last year. The wounds opened then are still not healed, and now new ones are feared,'' the Neue Zuercher Zeitung reported.

The fact that arch-rival Zurich is involved just rubs salt in the wounds.

The Basler Zeitung seemed bitter about the latest move and warned that big business was running out of control.

``The greatest danger by far for our country comes from gigantic concentrations of power by a seemingly arrogant business elite who may lose sight of their home market and the responsibility it entails while flying so high,'' it commented.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:04 - ID#31868)
President Clinton on the advice of the King
China says Clinton shouldn't meet with dissident
Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 Reuters

BEIJING ( December 9, 1997 02:00 a.m. EST ) - China on Tuesday said U.S. President Bill Clinton's meeting with Chinese dissident Wei Jingsheng was "totally wrong."

"This act of the U.S. side is totally wrong, and the Chinese side expresses its strong resentment against and firm opposition to the meeting," the official Xinhua news agency quoted a foreign ministry spokesman as saying.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:04 - ID#371471)

WSF, usually a post such as yours draws anger, but in this case,
you are right. The far right keeps looking for the most
unbelievable conspiracies in the Clinton Administration ( of which I
am no supporter ) that serve only to make themselves
look all the less intelligent. Good work on taking these
folks to task.

I mean, to consider that someone shot Mr. Brown and then crashed
an airplane to hide the evidence, killing more in the process
does beg a leap of suspended disbelief that even Samuel Taylor Coleridge could not ask for. This is America, for
gods sake; this "ain't" the former Soviet Union.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:05 - ID#258427)
Silver and Free markets
The thing I like about Silver, is that the Free Market is not manipulated ( as much ) as Gold appears to be manipulated and used for political purposes. Silver is way off it lows ... seems to respond to supply and demand ( more so ) ... although, I have seen speculators take silver down by 20 cents or more in one day. Still, Silver seems to be the play for as long as the CB's keep playing games with Gold!! IMHO...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:09 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton
Mornin BillD: Agree with you about silver versus gold!! Dec. Gold down ( another ) 2.50 @ 287.50....

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:11 - ID#258427)
Morning Ted .. I should have added ...GO SSC...SSC has saved my portfolio value for the last couple of months!!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:14 - ID#427357)
a perfect analogy!
PrivateInvestor ( Korean situation ) : That was indeed a perfect analogy!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:17 - ID#339274)
....FWIW short term cycle is to make a bottom today,
could be a sharp one all the way to 280,xau 60.
happy trading

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:18 - ID#93236)
Scotia Mocatta, L.A. is where my gold comes from. I'm trying to get on as a janitor there.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:24 - ID#364147)
@ BillD
ABX sure hasn't helped my portfolio ( sickly grin thing ) but once again am glad I'm diversified into other stocks ( non-PM ) .....drip...drip....drip

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:26 - ID#287367)
This is insanity! Down another $3.45/oz today! At this rate, in another 60 days, gold will be $80/oz !!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:29 - ID#93236)
@Crystal Ball
Just like oil...I'm goin' ride 'er into the ditch...Wahooooo! Here we go.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:31 - ID#258427)
INSANITY, I like that word ... I had been using ABSURDITY, but I think Insanity is better!!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:40 - ID#284255)
whose fault?
Private Investor
Your analogy if excellent.
The only bit you missed out on was:

The lifesaver was the mug who told the Korean
It was safe to go in over his head.

And the lifesaver was trained by the banks.
And the banks were controled by the West.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:43 - ID#258427)
Dow Tanking

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:44 - ID#258427)
XAU tanking

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:45 - ID#284255)
Volatility plus
Dow down 57 in the first 15 mins.
Gold off hard.
Any guesses where they will finish the day?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:51 - ID#25295)
JEW @ crystal ball
80 bucks a oz. and a free gold mine.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:52 - ID#93236)
@sharefin..i'm clueless?????
I just cursed the wife bad...shot the dog and beat the kids...I just had to tell someone...sorry. RON BROWN? HELL, I SHOULD BE SO LUCKY.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:57 - ID#258427)
Love it!!
Gosh Dern it ...just love that silver...up 3 Cents and SSC up 1/16 ( 7% ) . Love it...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 09:58 - ID#402148)
Major gold mining companies have to face a grim truth. Cover your shorts now, or be out of business in a year. Plenty of hedge fund cash to jump in on the rally to crush the shorts.

All together now..... ( 212 ) byC-OMEX, ( 212 ) B4S-OROS.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 10:00 - ID#258427)
Brazil tanking (again)
Bovespa Index

(Tue Dec 09 1997 10:01 - ID#333131)
vronsky www.fmd.imf
vronsky. www.fmd.imf was my pitiable attempt at humor. It stands for whirling world wide financial melt down at IMF's door. My children always tell me my humor is too complicated to be funny. Sorry

(Tue Dec 09 1997 10:18 - ID#333131)
Cheap gold "call option" anyone?
Penny gold stock CCH traded 133K shares right out of the box unchanged.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 10:22 - ID#284255)
who will tell the story?
Studio R
So is this guy

(Tue Dec 09 1997 10:26 - ID#348286)
@Y2K - Y2K - Y2K - STATS-CAN Survey out - Most businesses not prepared !
This is an official survey of 2000 Canadian companies:

(Tue Dec 09 1997 10:31 - ID#403216)
Donald, where is this ratio today and did the ratio hit a new high last week? What was the high? TYVM

(Tue Dec 09 1997 10:32 - ID#426220)
Don't Delay EURO, but...
While World acclaimed economist, Martin Armstrong, of Princeton Economics predicts the Euro will fall apart, others strongly feel the very restrictive entrance qualifications for each country will ensure the EMU will BE STILLBORN on 1 January 1999. Like Websters dictionary definition of the EMU, ...a large flightless bird, related to the ostrich. In short, the EMU will never fly, and the EURO advocates are just playing a game of OSTRICH, with their heads stuck in the sand... and their backsides exposed to unspeakable financial and monetary dangers.

International Analyst J.N. Tlaga provides another interesting viewpoint of the EUROs prospects:

(Tue Dec 09 1997 10:36 - ID#249453)
I'm sure some of you have seen the cover story in today's MONEY section of the USA Today paper telling about how gold is no longer needed or wanted and is nothing more than a commodity, and a crummy one at that.
Headlines spelled the end of the rally in late Jan'/early Feb of '96. Today, they will also spell the end of this current bear phase very soon. I live in Nevada, the third largest gold producer in the world after SA and Australia, so headlines about gold in the local papers isn't that uncommon due to its importance to the economy of this state, but I was wondering about how much local coverage gold is getting in other areas.?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 10:37 - ID#201238)
dynamic earth

To RJ. C-max, Aurator and anyone interested - The earth is a dynamic body. It is constantly in motion, rather I should say, different 'plates' are in motion. The earth is composed of a crust which is made up of individual plates which 'float; upon a semi-molten interior. This interior generates heat from radioactive decay which gives us our 'warmth' to support life. This generation of heat is not uniform throught the earth's core and thus convection currents are set up. These convection currents generate a magnetic field and also cause the 'floating plates' to move.

The entire process is called 'continental drift' and is well proven within the geologic community. The earth's magnetic polarity has reversed countless times, but the poles did not physically 'flip'. Yes, the South Pole was once tropical, I have fossils from there from creatures that lived in tropical waters!

As a man, we want to explain what we see in the time frame we are accustomed to. As a geologist I realize that our time on earth is but a fleeting moment. To understand the mysteries of the earth is an awesome task because we tend to keep our minds to closed. The evidence in the geologic record of past events of inumerable kinds would absolutely frighten the average citizen to death if they understood and believed what was possible on this earth. For example, what would a 3000 foot tsunami do? Makes global warming look like a joke, right?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 10:42 - ID#22956)
uh oh
away ;- )


go gold...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 10:47 - ID#217338)
Metals reporting requirement
Scotty or anyone: Would you please republish the information on the reporting requirement for the purchase, sale, of the different types of GOLD and PLATINUM coins.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 10:50 - ID#256201)
Captive press coverage of GOLD in Arkansas
Returned from a five year sojourn in Wmca Nv. about five years ago.
Here in the land of Clintonoids I have not to date seen anything resembling a realistic look at or appraisal of gold as a medium of exchange.
The community in which I live seems to have many folks who own the stuff. For reasons of their own.
The slavish intellects are not nearly so abundant here in West Central Arkansas as they are in the rest of the state.
Crime is decidedly lower, also.
Anyone curious 'bout our area, email me:
Pleased to be able to read the postings here. They verbalize the thoughts of many of my acquaintances.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:00 - ID#287207)
282.95--went through 285 like it wasn't there--I guess it wasn't.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:06 - ID#333131)
Brazil reserves recovering - they say

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:06 - ID#258427)
Gold down $6.05
ridiculi ad absurdium ...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:06 - ID#22956)
.........stuff I notice........and stuff that bugs me ;-)
Hep/Studio.R/CoolLurk - Bull or Bear??!? You can't have both ( or I guess you can ) . Are you riding into the dirt ( like oil ) ...or are you long with a buttload of Philharmonics...or is this some imposter and will the REAL HepRatCat please stand up!! If you can't trust the Hep who can you trust??!? Huh? Well.......??!? uh huh....that's what I thought...I miss you man....I need you man!! go gold.

LGB - what a BSer/storyteller. Do you have 7 daughters or 3 daughters...I don't really care about how many daughters you have, it's just that there have always been inconsistencies scattered in your posts. What are we to believe about The Great-Infallible-LGB??!??!? Anything?? I need you man!!!...............not..........go gold

Crystal Ball - CAPITULATION??!? now?......let me know....I'll be ready ;- )

Ted - BITE ( gold ) bug me.....go gold... lick my 'Mark'ed wounds.....damn dollar ( US ) .....


who the hell is ron brown...john galt....alice b. toklas.....and where the hell is 'the sheller'.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:08 - ID#20137)
Ouch! again. GOLD Ouch! Silver NICE.
Look at the range on those trades, volume slow. It is telling us something?
10:37:24 282.5
10:34:22 282.8
10:23:05 283
22:42 285.9
11:00 283
10:14 284.2
06:41 284.2
01:15 283.6
9:59:50 284.9
59:50 284.8
59:43 285
58:10 283.3
57:42 283.5
52:17 283.8

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:10 - ID#283199)
Is the bottom near ?
After listening to some of the funds managers they are staying away from gold untill it reaches 275 then they will go bullish. Should we be looking forward to this bullish level to finally shake out the shorts ?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:12 - ID#333131)
Russia doesn't need bank loans now - they say

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:13 - ID#22956)
This suks
I was waiting to 'sell the rallies' and I'll be damned if the boat left the harbor without me on it. Maybe next time. Maybe i'll make $28 ( US ) the form of one......ahem ( he clears his throat of morning gunk ) small ...oh my.......I would rather have the shorts.....klunk! Thud! drown ( gurgle ) !



(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:14 - ID#287207)
281.75 and it isn't noon yet.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:17 - ID#287207)
Almost a straight line
At this rate it will hit 278 before the NY market closes --can't happen??

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:18 - ID#426220)
Bre-X Survivor Clarifies Why He Invested
An obscure but brilliant analyst in 1995 discovered for himself the incredible potential of the Bre-X gold mine in Indonesia. His analysis was based on only the data available to the public. At that time the analyst was an employee in a credit institution in Alberta, Canada. He is none other than John Kutyn, who IMHO is one of the most perceptive and accurate analyzers of the brewing South-East Asian currency and stock market debacle - which is rapidly precipitating the DOMINO EFFECT... capable of bringing the Japanese Banking system to its knees.

His story is as factual as it is indeed fascinating. Although his analysis was based upon fraudulent information fabricated by the unscrupulous management of Bre-X, his evaluation was nonetheless flawless. It is indeed a captivating read...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:19 - ID#22956)
OJ anyone??!?
What a CRAZY market!! It was cold here last night. I wonder if Fl. felt it Savage?!?

Crazy, man.............! sip the sweet and tangy


go gold....

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:20 - ID#333131)
Tales from Iran:Terrorism gave Islam a bad name, but then again the West is poisoness

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:25 - ID#333131)
History in the making
Cost of the Dow=28.64 oz of gold. All time high!!!!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:36 - ID#285233)
1982&1985 lows in gold taken out-What's next??
Since both the 1982 and 1985 lows of $284.25 and $296.75 have been taken out, it is technically difficult to see what is next.

a. if deflationary collapse is being indicated, we may go down to $180, with the abolute bottom at around $113. This would bring the DOW to unimaginable lows.

b. if the collapse of the gold price is being caused by the supply/demand manipulation, and provided inflation is in the cards, as may be evidenced by expanding money supply, gold better turn around close to this point.

We are all guessing the short term, however, we are sure of the outcome of this game.
Very powerful interest groups are controling the world's financial markets. They have only postponed the economic laws, not cancelled them.
Economic laws are based on REALITY and the system will eventually correct with vengence. Unfortunetaly, this economic distortion will bring misery to all.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:37 - ID#224151)
Beginning to dread those "Posts".It happens evertime.Another dive!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:37 - ID#288100)
Bart: a suggestion
How about a counter to see daily how many people lurk here?

Being an old contrarian I figure that a few people equals a buy

signal. Lots of people indicates a sell signal.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:37 - ID#320441)
Gold price plunging, gold stocks vanishing into thin air
Being down 60% in less than a year makes a man ( or woman ) out of ya'.

This too will pass.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:38 - ID#215208)
Flux and Chaos
Must be some activity in gold. Can't get into the regular Kitco site to check prices. Gee, I wondered what could have caused this? :- (

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:44 - ID#20137)
Oh, NO I must be cracking under the pressure ...
I think I just heard a bullish report on gold on CNBC. Fellow from CPM group saying that we are at the bottom ( for gold ) , because technical sellers would find it hard to rationalize keeping and/or adding to shorts at this level. Said strong buying in US and Europe by small investor is hard for dealers to meet. Also strong buying from China, India, Pakistan are adding to a strong support base. Sees gold in $320-340 area in six months.

Oh, it can't be true. A delusional Goose is a scary thing.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:46 - ID#25588)
Gold & SnP
Gold hit the objective of 282.50 +/- 1.00 basis Dec ( 12/9, 01:05 ) . If you are long Feb. or April use a 3.00 stop, move the stop up to just under today's low a 1/2 hour before the close. S&P if you are short from 987.00 or higher move your stop down to breakeven.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:47 - ID#215208)
Gold going up.
Must be time to buy gold. Can't find one poster who thinks it is going to rally. Ooops. I remember APH last night, "Buy Feb and/or Apr gold if December gold trades below $283." I just looked. It is at $282.50 ( delayed quotes ) .

P.S. I just bought some VAALY, and may buy more of something.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:49 - ID#402148)
Who here made the prediction in the past few weeks that "they" would take her down to 282, just to give everyone a good scare, before rallying sharply?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:49 - ID#333131)
Steady, steady, the day isn't over.
What a wonderful day for a reversal in gold. Let's see what happens.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:49 - ID#215208)
Oh! Hi APH. Hope I quoted you correctly. Didn't know you were around.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:53 - ID#426220)
INGER SEES S&P500 AT 1000 BEFORE RESPITE (December 9, 1997)
CNBC financial celebrity and analyst par excellence, Gene Inger, provides us a dissection of last weeks action, and shares his prognosis of that to come in various markets:

(Tue Dec 09 1997 11:56 - ID#22650)
axis flip
Hello. New lurker checking in. Re comments on reversing polarity and climate changes, rec book by Robert Felix "Not by Fire but by Ice"1-800-310-1764 x 9761. Not a professional scientist but a citizen who spent 5 years researching.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:01 - ID#374302)
GVC - Your 10:36
GVC, thanks for drawing our attention to the USA Today article on gold.
I found the Net version - it is at for those who missed the hard copy edition.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:02 - ID#23782)
Carl thinks he is a preditor. I agree.
Check Carls logic in some of his last night posts.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:10 - ID#57232)
Very relevant to Kitco: Bullet in Ron Brown's head?
Dave in Co, All: Now we have two apparently very experienced ( and senior? ) AFIP Armed Forces medical examiners stating that Ron Brown had a head wound consistent with a gunshot, and head x rays to support it. The first one, Cogswell, has seen over 100 plane crash autopsies, so he should know the difference between a plane crash and a bullet wound. The AFIP is a world-renowned pathology organization, and they pride themselves in accurate diagnoses.

Even if the wound is an artifact of the accident, and not a bullet wound, a formal investigation should have ensued. This new evidence will be hard to deny. I think there is a significant shift in the political climate, and people who were afraid ( or unable ) to contradict the official word are now able to do so.

A scandal associated with Ron Brown's death actually being murder, and then being covered up would have major repercussions. Unfortunately, I think all 34 bodies on the fateful plane to Croatia were cremated. I wonder why. Was that woman who worked with John Huang, and murdered inside the locked Commerce building also cremated? Who gave the orders for the cremations? Was there a reason given?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:23 - ID#66280)

(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:23 - ID#31868)
If gold is worthless as some suggest, and paper money is being printed into oblivion for which no opinion is needed due to the news headlines.

What is worth something?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:28 - ID#410194)
It's in!!!
Tuesday December 9th:

The bottom is in at 281.50!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:30 - ID#31868)
So far in the hub-bub about Reno on the hill today not one individual has mentioned the following.

After all this talk. if Reno does proceed in the future with evidence in hand, she could topple the President in a heart beat and the American people would back her up all the way.

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:32 - ID#26362)
God is dead, the Dollar is Done
These were both fairly recent headlines. My father used to say "he did not have a chinaman's chance." You donn't hear these things stated recently. God seems to be doing fine, the almighty dollar is ruling the world and the Chinese are excelling. It is gold that is currently dead. Dead? No, just fluctuating, reflecting current sentiment that the governments have everything under control, Santa is coming and all is right with the world which defies history. I will bet on history every time. Sure the buggy whip was replaced, but for it, a substitute was found. Can paper replace gold? Hardly!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:36 - ID#31868)
Oracle dropping like a rock.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:37 - ID#28594)
Tolerant1, "What is worth something?"
My dear fellow, you're talking about Value!
The world now deals with Price...
hand them anything ( and I do mean anything )
and they will affix a price to it

as to what it is worth...
it is worth whatever
the Greater Fool will pay for it

The Indo-European root of the word "value"
is ualere, "to be strong, hence to be well"
( and from which, incidently, also the word "valor' )

Not a great deal of that around, my friend
we are the last two people are the face of the earth
to ask "What is it worth? What is its Value?"

(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:38 - ID#28594)
Tolerant1, "What is worth something?"
My dear fellow, you're talking about Value!
The world now deals with Price...
hand them anything ( and I do mean anything )
and they will affix a price to it

as to what it is worth...
it is worth whatever
the Greater Fool will pay for it

The Indo-European root of the word "value"
is ualere, "to be strong, hence to be well"
( and from which, incidently, also the word "valor' )

Not a great deal of that around, my friend
this board represents the last group of people
on the face of the earth
who ask "What is it worth? What is its Value?"

(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:41 - ID#31868)
I can tell you at mid-day with 107,000,000 shares traded ORACLE is worth 9,000,000,000 less at the moment and falling as we speak.


(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:50 - ID#284255)
Will the springboard have any bounce?
Tolerant 1
What did ORCL do apart from earnings down 16%
Talk about merciless.

US Economic Commentary
Foreign Exchange Report
MARKET UPDATE ( 12/7/97 ) PM-----Gold broke through the 13 year $285 downside support level this morning opening the door for further pressure on the price. Aggresive pressure has been exerted on the metal by short sellers in both London and New York and its had its intended effect. Simultaneously, COMEX warehouse stocks dropped another 18,030 ounces and the London interbank gold rate stayed at the 4.2% level. There have been rumors that another central bank -- perhaps Belgium or Netherlands -- has been selling gold but that the operations are complete. We cannot verify this rumor. Instead we continue to hear reports that the physical market is very tight. This adds creditbility to the analysts who claim that once the metal finds a bottom there could be a springboard effect. Silver continues to show strength. Most of the reports on gold this morning are citing the strong dollar as a cause for gold's weakness. The dollar, however, is mixed this AM -- down against the yen and up against the Dmark and Swissie. The big merger between UBS and SBC could have an effect on gold depending upon that companies' policies with respect to gold. Both have been aggressive sellers and much of the push for European central bank sales has come from these firms research departments. Both are anti-gold and do a large brokerage/carry business in gold from the central banks to the mining companies in the form of gold loans. Both companies have come under heavy criticism in Europe for its agressive, not always profitable, investment policies. Some reports have mentioned these policies are now under scrutiny. Gold is technically weak having broken the $285 support level. It's a good time to buy if you interested in physical ownership. This is bottom fishing. More later if warranted, if not, this is it for the day.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:58 - ID#194311)
Korea financial systemic failure...are we there yet?
SEOUL, Dec 9 ( AFP ) - The South Korean won plunged against the
dollar to another record low Tuesday, with bank officials saying the
financial system was crumbling amid market panic and unabated dollar
demand from companies and banks.
"Merchant banks are the main reason behind this forex turmoil.
But underlying the won's relentless fall is the crumbling financial
system," a dealer at a major bank said.
"Moreover, today there was stronger dollar demand from
companies, who were trying to buy dollars at whatever rate to settle
their import payments," he said.
"No one was selling dollars. The market is in a complete panic,"
A Koram Bank dealer told AFX-Asia, an AFP financial news
affiliate, that the won was likely to depreciate by 10-perceent
limit-low again on Wednesday.
Dealers said the financial system appeared near paralysis, with
merchant banks and some brokerages facing extreme liquidity shortage
problems and attempting to secure funds at whatever rates.
Merchant banks have been almost blocked from borrowing funds in
the call market, with commercial banks refusing to extend them

(Tue Dec 09 1997 12:59 - ID#258427)
Here's the damage so far...

-9 3/8

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:01 - ID#194311)
Korea gold derivative plays.
I wonder if this has anything to do with their liquidity shortage?
Seems like they have fallen right into the trap, any news on those Korean bullion banks who would deliver at any cost?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:01 - ID#432107)
Have we hit bottom yet? I'm afraid to look.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:02 - ID#285233)
NightWriter - I feel your pain!! I've got a lot of it myself.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:10 - ID#372344)
@ Gold vs mighty? US$ The Currency Fight For World Confidence.
A number of contributors to this discussion group ,including myself,have elequently given numerous views on the reasons for Gold's decline and have IMHO correctly stated that a massive anti-Golf PR is and has been ongoing for since AG took office. But very little discussion has taken place about the strong US$ and the reasons for it. The BIG PICTURE
IMHO as I see it is that confidence in the US$ doesn't just simply happen.
It is achieved thru a number of factors, including being the sole world military Superpower, maintaining the World Reserve Currency the US$,
and control of the world economic blood OIL. It is only when they loose
or it appears that they will loose any or all of the above that "confidence"
in the US$ currency declines and the world looks to a large extent to Gold and to a lesser extent other currencies backed by Gold. The trillions of US$ debt, the budget and trade deficits, and on and on , mean very little indeed as long as the abovementioned is in place. I had been bearish on Gold for a number of years, but the following has confirmed to me, a long time Gold Bug, that the Confidence in the US$ is starting to decline mand the Ultimate Currency Gold is about to take off.

1. China's ascent into an economic and military Superpower, and it's ever
increasing role in the far east.The previous Superpower, USSR was just a
military Superpower ( some have even questioned that ) and was never an economic power.

2. The defiant Iraqi move to oust the UN inspectors with the backing
of the Russians , Chinese and yes even the French who want to do business there again, along with recent terrorist acts to oust the US troops as well as the questions the ARABS themselves must asking themselves with Oil at $18.00 and nowhere to go but down.
( a la Reagan ) Are we better off today than we were 5 or so years ago without US "protection"? The Islamic conference now underway in of all
places IRAN, with most of the US Gulf allies attending is a watershed
event indeed for the US$ IMHO.

3.The ever decreasing power of Clinton, he couldn't get fastrack for
South America ,US labor has had it with free trade, and Massive IMF ( US Taxpayers ) funding to bail out the world is not going to happen.

4.The intensification of the PR WAR against Gold especially in the last month tells me we are very near the bottom. I believe that you can go say 5% or so below trendlines, to shake everybody weakling out, and still
hold old lows.

As I wrote in previous post, when Gold does jump, look for the US thru
the IMF to announce Gold Sales.

This my friends is a serious game, and the US is not going to roll over
believe me, the fight is about to begin.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:12 - ID#238422)
@John Disney
Thanks for your post.

Vodka is ready to go any time, need shipping instructions.

Can provide you with my E-mail address or fax number
to receive instructions, let me know which one is preferable..

Best regards...

P.S.Will have a couple of shots after work, helps to watch
this market...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:15 - ID#57232)
@NewPhysics: The earth's crust as a layer on a (semi)liquid mantle?
Arden: I think I began the series of posts on the problem of the Antarctic being tropical at one time. I am well aware of the theory that temperature gradients in the mantle cause convective cells ( rayleigh taylor instability, as I recall ) and that these are thought to drive the magnetic field -- though I don't know if this is current flow, or chargeless hydrodynamic flow.

There have been historical events that suggest that certain parts of the earth had a fairly quick change in the weather, and some individuals have even proposed that the earth could suddenly tilt on its axis. I think that theory is highly improbable, as any multicellular life forms would be smashed to bits. This post is partially relevant to Kitco, since understanding of natural cycles ( such as ElNino, etc ) may allow us to be more successful investors.

My question to you ( I am a physicist, not a geologist ) is could the entire crust of the earth shift if the convective cells are temporarily disrupted? In other words, is the magma of the earth liguid enough for this to happen, say during a magnetic reversal? A 100 year period?

Are you aware that Kiwi is an engineer or geophysicist?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:15 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Ridiculous
Oh my, look at gold go~~~~~~~~~~~~~down.......

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:18 - ID#287207)
Two points. First the Arab states lost confidence in the US when the republican guard was left intact and Saddam was left to carry on business as usual. Added to this is the starvation that has killed thousands of Iraqis making the US lead and enforced sanctions the most recent and current act of abuse in the area. Now the Arab states still have Saddam to deal with and citizens who do not see the US in a good light.

Second the US is behind in its IMF payments so no US cash is involved as yet.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:20 - ID#287367)
@ 
Hmmmm. What day is it today? They don't call it "Turnaround Tuesday" for nothing...Maybe we can rally a little from here so you can have an entry point for your short. ;- )

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:27 - ID#93232)
Just returned from my office where I pump oil to give it away...and I must say I am learn that I have been cheaply imposted...what a cruel joke...especially at this treasonous moment when all has turned against me ( my wife, kids and dog ) !

What me worry? BEEN THERE...ATE THAT! EB, I am the lowest I.Q.-raging bull you will never meet ( hope that last part changes ) . Bot 50 more Harmonikers this a.m.. I bot over 500 oil wells from failed banks between 1986 and 1988...when no one wanted them, using GECC and Bell pension funds. Turned out good...damn good. I AIN'T SCARED. Probably 'cause, per Mom, I'm not too bright...Hell, she's a ..... well, you know about her.

Don't believe? Call Mike @ usagold...he'll tell you I'm a mad bull and he'll also tell you I'm seven-eights crazy. Well, hell he's crazy too...and so are you, my man. Amen.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:28 - ID#285233)
18 year low??
Looking at the gold chart, it appears that we had a 18 year low this morning. Looks like a demand for liquidity by the Asians may be contributing to this drop.
Interesting, people/govs sell real asset to save paper from collapsing. What a gift, buy with all you can. It is getting late.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:31 - ID#237164)
To A.Goose:
I went to
... very nice ...

What is the symbol that you used to get the gold quotes, please !

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:32 - ID#31868)
This market is in very bad shape. The political tensions everywhere, paper being destroyed left and right. Nobody wants gold, but demand is higer than it has ever been.

When people want out of paper they will try to get physical but none will be found. Next step into the mining shares.

God save people that have no metal.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:33 - ID#57232)
Just how much of a gold stock investment should we have at this point?
All: I have a real problem deciding what to do -- very soon we will have a gold rally -- a short one ( months-probably ) before the real thing. My problem is this -- every time the US market heads south, gold stocks go down some more.

So, do I buy gold stocks at a fire sale, only to find the market crashes, and wipes out my investment? If we have a bear market, not a crash, gold stocks will do well.

My intuitive guess is not to go 100% long, but go for 20-30% long on gold stocks, with the rest parked safely. If I were a shrewd George Soros type, I might be able to predict the time of a market crash and invest more.


(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:34 - ID#257114)
GC8G will do the trick. XAU.X also.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:34 - ID#246224)
@Tzadeak re: US$
See my 12/8 @21:49 post. MO as fer now.

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:39 - ID#26362)

Sounds like we could be birds of a feather. I am sitting in a position to acquire proven and semi proven gold resrves which can be had for a song which are highly economic at today's price. I am an operator and have men and equipment available to turn them on. Come back at me.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:40 - ID#237164)
Thanks ... what does gc98g stand for?
is it the future for gold, dec 98?

THat's a good site!

Thanks all !

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:40 - ID#246224)
@Studio.R iron lined pants and loving it
Its the ride of a lifetime, no? Buy low, sell high. We are low; will go high. Can't wait to see how this all pans out and the poste mortum .. the 'real' story ( many real stories ) . This is the best part; being fully loaded - pedal to the metal - air streaming by while everyone is screaming and trying to jump off board. Yeeee-haaaaa!!! Ride that beast till it lies exhausted and dies beneath your feet ( true grit ) . Walk way with the GOLD!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:41 - ID#257114)
It's GC8G which is Feb '98 gold.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:44 - ID#284255)
ready to burn
I agree, this market is ready to fall over,
Probably real soon.
If not, then in a few months.
Me, I'm picking in the next few weeks.
The Dax, has just faded on a triple top,
Same with the Dow.
Watch them rush the exits, when that sets in.
I still don't think gold will bottom till after the crash,
And gold shares will burn further in a crash.
When the crash comes, it will be all over in a few hours.
Then it will be time to pick up the pieces.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:47 - ID#57232)
MUsing -- UBS & SBC aggressive sellers (loaners) of gold?
All: Did you see sharefin's post from USAgold 12/7/97 ( today ) ? UBS and SBC, the Swiss banks that just merged, are known to be agressive sellers ( loaners ) of gold. I wonder, does the merger have to do with the fact that they see a change in the wind?

SDRer: Know anything about this? Very suspicious!

I am tempted to add more gold stocks to my portfolio, but will gold continue to go down some more? I think we are now at a 28 year low.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:49 - ID#372344)
@ Selby
Although the Arabs did loose confidence in the US when they did not
invade IRAQ and take out the Rep. guard, the important point I made
IMHO is that they Arabs then were not united, look at Syria who for years was an ally of IRAQ same B. party etc... turned against IRAQ, and was a Gulf war US ally.The musical chair game of allies over there is amazing. This Islamic Conference is some evidence that the Arabs are indeed uniting much like they did in the 70"s, and will eventually at least attempt if not succeed to force the US out.

The point re IMF although you are correct the US does owe $, but the IMF acts as if the US$ payments was a fait accomplis to prolong the status quo IMHO. Watch what happens to the US$ when the IMF does NOTreceive the promised US$.

Dave in CO
(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:52 - ID#215211)
@JTF RE: Commerce Dept. deaths
Apologies to those who don't feel this is relevant, but a well-respected member of the forum asked a question.

JTF: Just got back to Kitco and saw your question.

Don't know if Barbara Wise's body was cremated. The only information I've seen is that the body was given a rush autopsy ( within 10 hours ) as was Vince Foster's.

Why was this case important enough to warrant a rush autopsy, jumping to the head of the line in D.C. where bodies queue up in a large stack, but not important enough to warrant coverage by the media? Are suspicious deaths commonplace in federal buildings, especially in offices under investigation by independent counsels?

This is the only information I know of about Barbara Wise's death: 2 stories and some analysis:

Wise worked for Huang who worked for Brown. So many scandals. What are the odds?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:52 - ID#238295)
Golden Crash
Sharefin: Repectfully disagree with your prognostication for gold and stocks. Stocks ain't gonna crash as long as gold is plunging and the greenback is king of the hill. Buy all stock market dips as long as gold is weak and the dollar strong. But run like hell when the dollar tanks and gold starts up in a serious way.

Gold stocks not doing too badly today considering the collapse in bullion. Very high volume in the majors.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:53 - ID#426220)
Only the Nikkei with massive BOJ influence pressuring Nippon financial institutions managed a respectable gain in Tuesday trading... which belies the worsening Domino Effect gripping all Asia, and already spilling over into Russia and Brazil. South Korea alone plummeted 6.5% for the session.

Just by extending massive loans to Asian Banks, the IMF IS NOT ADDRESSING THE ESSENCE OF THE PROBLEM: Which is simply that the borrowers cannot repay their debts! UNFORTUNATELY, ASIAN Debtors bit off more than they can chew financially.

It doesn't take a double Ph.D. in Mathematics AND Finance to understand the ludicrous folly of the Asian Banking Debacle looming on the horizon of the Land of the SETTING Sun... and the horrific ramifications which inevitably will ensue.

THIS is the LATEST analysis of the Asian Banking Domino Effect by John Kutyn -

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:56 - ID#224329)
One obvoius reason for the gold price fall
Have been a lurker until now.....The attempt to crush the gold price in many ways is an act of desperation. It is obvious that if the price of gold were allowed to rise in value in the local currencies of all the countries that have devalued and the price of gold was steady in dollars, there would have been a marked increase in the price of gold for all these countries. However, by further decreasing the price of gold in dollars, the price rise in the local currencies is somewhat muted. Instictively, human beings always like to buy anything that is rising in price!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:57 - ID#287207)
I think we agree. The high watermark for US influence was the moment Bush stopped the war and things have got worse with the pictures of starving Iraqi children. But as you say things have been changing there for 1000's of years and won't stop because we happen to be here watching them.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 13:59 - ID#57232)
Tsunami gold bugs!
sharefin, Allen ( USA ) , RJ ( ? ) : Are we in that quiet period when the water mysteriously receeds from the beach? The moment is near, but I'm having cold feet -- I think I could risk 20%-30% of my liquid assets on the Tsnunami gold bug ride. What makes me hesitate is thinking about seeing the beach at 400 feet, and not knowing when to jump off!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:02 - ID#424345)
This is the end, my friends
FWIW I agree with TZADEAK that we should expect a strong US initiative to have IMF sell some or all of its gold. Asian crises will probably be the reason given.

I also agree that this is really a drama about the role of the US and it's dollar in the world over the next few years.

I also agree that while we are now in the endgame that it will be a very, very nasty piece of work.

"Offing" 34 people to cover up Ron Brown's little problem with lead poisening is a very good indication of exactly how nasty things are these days. I personally find it appalling that it is now common place for people to express concern for the LIVES of prominent political personalities that pose an inconveinience to the Bush/Clinton axis.

Move this type of nastiness up to the global arena and it is hard to rule ANYTHING ( war, terrorism, etc., etc. ) out.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:08 - ID#188244)
tgl missed my sarcasim, ( or maybe I missed his ) . It is LGB that explains away the mountains of evidence surrounding the nefarious deeds of the Clintons and their thugs.
Ron Brown threatened to bring everyone down with him if he was hung out to dry. I guess he did, but not the right people.
There are numerous mysteries surrounding the Brown plane crash. Many SOPs for plane crashes were not followed on this one.
Life insurance questionnaire of the future:
1 ) Age
2 ) Sex
3 ) Smoker?
4 ) Work for/ friend of Clinton ?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:11 - ID#194311)
JTF...musings, amusing enough to make me cry.
Yes, both of these scoundrels are well mixed up in gold loan activities ( that is supervising and advising others to loan out gold ) . Meanwhile
Switzerland has not sold one ounce of its own gold...go figure.

I personally know a gold industry advisor within UBS and an investment banker with SBC-Warburg ( also a recent merge ) . They like to hire "bright" young people from the Oxbridge schools for their London charades.
These two "prestigious" trading banks ( whom a Swiss guy called Ebner owns a piece of each ) are also fully involved in currency and derivative trading operations, bottom line is these are the market manipulators, if anybody is. They have been leading the market charge against "suspect" currencies, and fully profiteering on the subsequent market shifts, note how the profits of each of these banks has skyrocketed since the unravelling in Asia began....probably they contributed also to the ballooning debt before the bust.

Now they are closing ranks and covering their tracks as the paper traders of old folded up the tents and moved on. Be sure that soon enough the noises coming from their windows will be "Gold is good, you must have gold to be sure."
Why don't people ever wise up to this age old trickery and deceit? Because they are gullible and trusting.
Banks should be non-profit entities if they truly exist for the "good of society".

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:12 - ID#340286)
Oracle dropping
TOLERANT: Soon you will say: "Microsoft dropping like a rock"

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:13 - ID#189273)
Bullion or mines?
Dear Studio.R. I'm crazy, too. Looking for a buy signal to increase our
gold position, meaning bullion, not mines. Don't want to be too early, like when coffee surprised us all on the downside a few years ago. Been following gold since theearly 70's, this is as interesting as it's been in a long time. So, which are you buying now?

Lurker 777
(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:16 - ID#317247)
ouch,ohh no,eee,ugh,yikes,no mas
Last time gold was this low? Aug. 6th 1979 at $282.70!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:18 - ID#284255)
Secular tops all round
Old Gold
Switzerland is the only major global indice to go to new highs, with a tripple top. On the strength of the bank merger.
CAC has just failed on a tripple top so to the DAX.
FTSE never made a double top.
NYA, INX, OEX have just established double tops.
The Dow has just failed on a tripple top.
A most powerful topping formation.
Transports have just put in a double top.
Utils put their top in a few days ago.
Nasdaq and Amex have all put in their tops.
Bonds have just put in a reversal formation.
And we all now how sick Asia is etc.
Personally, I think a crash real soon.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:20 - ID#31868)
Yes, I am sure, and many other big names as well.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:24 - ID#284255)
I'll be bank in ten minutes with a picture or two of the ping.
As you say the tide is out and it shows on the charts.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:25 - ID#194311)
Got your gold Japan?...government's moving in on your savings.
Japan Lower House passes deposit insurance bill
TOKYO ( Reuters ) - Japan's Lower House of parliament Tuesday
passed a bill aimed at promoting mergers of ailing banks by
revising the country's Deposit Insurance Law, parliament
officials said.
The bill will be sent to the Upper House for final
endorsement. The government hopes to have the bill enacted
before the parliament ends its current extraordinary session on
The revision will allow the semi-governmental Deposit
Insurance Corp., which is aimed at protecting depositors from
financial failures and to help prevent financial crises, to
provide financial help for mergers of troubled banks until March
31, 2001.
To help them merge, the corporation will take over problem
loans at ailing banks.
At present, the body can provide funds to healthy financial
institutions when they plan to merge with or take over ailing
institutions, but not to banks if both merger parties are in
financial trouble.
As of April 2001, Japan plans to switch to a U.S.-style
system under which deposits in failed banks will be guaranteed
only up to a certain level.
Opposition parties have criticized the bill as a step toward
a bailout of troubled banks and to a shortage of funds at the
insurance corporation.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:26 - ID#93232)
I have only bought Austrian Philharmonics, ( 1 oz. ) pure gold, as opposed to most bullion coins.....that decreases weight when I run for the border. And also, on the strong sentiment of Mike Kosares, Pre-33 Liberties uncirc....he has a convincing argument. Probably 75/25 in favor of Harmonikers.


John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:29 - ID#24140)
hepcat revisited
to all-

My 04:52 to Oris of warm vodka fame ( among other things like putting

the finger on the multiple book system of the shifty Ruskies ) forecast gold to move down to 0.74 time the plat price. Was I wrong ?? Looks

like 277/278 then a bounce - Good action in the south africans MAY

indicate a turn up ( bear rally ) before the end of the week.

Old buddy I hope you took my advice and bought puts on abx at 16 + and calls on ASA at 20. I know you didnt and I didnt either.

to selby -

Bush got the idea to spare the Repub Guards from the State Department

goon squad. They got it from reading about "balance of power" in

high school History Book. Value of an Ivy League education.

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:35 - ID#26362)
I am playing Arizona and Northern Mexico, Sonora and Chihuahua, Chihuahua. Many ways to skin the cat. Contact me at for full details.

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:36 - ID#26362)
Stike the extra Chihuahua.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:38 - ID#31868)
stop your whining
think how much Mr. Oracle lost today.

John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:38 - ID#24140)
divide,confuse, and rule by misspelling words
to all

oboyoboyoboy -

Horrified to read in 13:10 post that not only is there an anti-gold PR campaign, there is also an anti-GOLF PR campaign - The IMF may flood the market with its 25 year supply hoard of GOLF BALLS.

This is UGLY. Cricket is safe - you cant misspell it and get anything

meaningful out of it.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:39 - ID#426220)
Don't Delay EURO, but...
While World acclaimed economist, Martin Armstrong, of Princeton Economics predicts the Euro will fall apart, others strongly feel the very restrictive entrance qualifications for each country will ensure the EMU will BE STILLBORN on 1 January 1999. Like Websters dictionary definition of the EMU, ...a large flightless bird, related to the ostrich. In short, the EMU will never fly, and the EURO advocates are just playing a game of OSTRICH, with their heads stuck in the sand... and their backsides exposed to unspeakable financial and monetary dangers.

International Analyst J.N. Tlaga provides another interesting viewpoint of the EUROs prospects:

John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:42 - ID#24140)
travel light, watch your back
for Studio-R

I ran for border many years ago - it's kinda fun

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:43 - ID#284255)
The oscillations have pulled right back and now look ready to start expanding again. The calm before the storm.
The window formation in the lull, is noticable before these large pings.
I presume the next ping will exceed the last.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:43 - ID#285233)
Gold stocks crash levels about reached
I believe that the gold stocks, especially the junior/exploration sector crashed to such levels that one can consider them an outstanding buy. As we will watch the rest of the market go through the same and much deeper in the near future, gold and the gold stocks will finally move in the right direction, and that is up.
I think that one should be buying both, the metal as well as shares. The "paper" representing the gold mining shares is not an ordinary paper.!!!


(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:46 - ID#237164)
Gold Spot
Can someone help me find the current Gold Spot information?
Is there a symbol for it? Is there a site that posts it?


(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:47 - ID#340286)
Explorers vs Producers
Steady: "I believe that the gold stocks, especially the junior/exploration sector crashed to such levels that one can consider them an outstanding buy. " At past gold bottoms, producers have been the best performers. Junior explorers usually come back to life very late in the cycle. Given the current prices on all producers, there is no doubt that smart money will go there before they go to the non-producers.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:47 - ID#284255)
Try this one

(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:48 - ID#390214)
Though we might not reach ( ? ) your $250, you should be congratulated on your call.


John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 09 1997 14:51 - ID#24140)
Somebody is smart
to all

Noticed somebody is buying Vaaly - Vaaly now has wes -areas .

Whoever you are I think you are doing something right. Maybe I

should buy some too.

How Areas was kept under south african control ( with a weak rand ) is a monument to the dopeyness of US gold mining management. Two majors

went after BRE-X and let this one go by without a peep while Mzi Khumalo

and Brett Kebble were giving JCI away.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:01 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Bull Sh!t
Where is the floor???----arrrrrggghh.....go team gold~~~~~~~~~

(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:10 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Bull Sh!t
EB: Ya gotta love them Trail!....go team gold~~~~~~

(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:13 - ID#217268)
12/8/97 WSJ Ad Page
A full page COLOR ad for "anglogold" appeared in yesterday's Wall Street Journal. The copy reads, " the world's biggest gold mining and exploration company". Is this company listed on any exchanges ? Where is their headquarters ? Was there a merger that I missed ?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:17 - ID#287207)
nomercy: Thank you. I'm not sure I would be brave enough to post it today. Whether gold goes any lower than 285 from a practical point of view doesn't make a lot of difference now. The major part of the damage has been done and anyone who gets in now thinking that the bottom is in is presumably well aware of the risk they are running on the one hand and at worse $100 closer to being right on the other.

The fortunes/fate of Flag Resources which is or will be before Friday drilling gold, silver and nickel showings on the surface near the Sudbury mines of INCO and Falconbridge is taking more of my intestest than golds decline at the moment. Mooney has extolled the potential here for over a year and on the other Kitco channel and on the Flag SI site and Hepcat has had a dump on it just about as frequently. Lots of risk and lots of potential.

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:19 - ID#26362)
Correcion, that is I respect your religious scruples, I do the heavy lifting.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:19 - ID#372344)
Allen, Is the World Financial System in Collapse and US the last Domino?
While we are in agreement that Gold is going to move up and is certainly
the Supreme currency of last resort, I believe that we differ in part on the reasons , and certainly to the medium term extent of that move. You and others I understand, believe that all world stock markets are going to
collapse including the US, and that all paper currencies will be worthless
etc... I respectfully do NOT agree. As I wrote in a previous post "Thunder
only Happens when it's Raining", simple, but gets my point across. I remember Gold bugs predicting this same doomsday senerio back in the
70's. The fact is that if one looked at history one would see that Gold
only went up in periods of finacial instability,i.e. wars, because of what
I term as "Currency Revaluation Crisis", and once that was over the paer game continued. Not that I agree with most of what LGB says or
the way he says it, but to me this is compelling evidence of the inherent natural desire of mankind for peace and stability, and a sound? currency
in order to trade domestically and internationally. And it would take a
powerful Thunder indeed to wake them out of their wonderful dreams of
sunny skies that they want to have last forever.But History shows us something else.
What we have had for the past 15 years or so ( se earlier post ) is a US$
dominated world trading system. It is the US that sets the rules for that system. I am suggesting that US$ world trade system is about to change.
Witness the rise in the Japan Mrkt last night when it was rumored discussions were underway to sell US$ Bonds. In other words I am suggesting that Gold will go up in value vs the US$ because the US$
will be revalued downward vs other world currencies. But this is not
going to happen easily, it will have to be forced unto the US by the world
and this IMHO is what I spoke about in my previous post.
One must keep an objective mind , I know mine is, when attempting to
invest. The US really does not need anyone. It not only produces but exports food, cars technology, etc... The oil that they import comes from
the AMERICAS not the middel-east, so it is only those items such as clothes, shoes, PC's and parts, toys etc.. that are imported from abroad.
It can if necessary produce all it's own cars.It has untold natural resources in their own back yard in the AMERICAS.So I don't look for a
sudden collapse here. what may indeed happen, and this is my own reason for buying gold coins, and Gold stocks is a probabilty of a short
lived banking crisis where banks close like in the 30's, ( gold coins would
certainly be handy then ) ,for a period of time or worst case senario, a new Domestic $ is introduced , thereby retaining one's purchasing power.

Remember the British Pound lasted for something like 900 years, with
different values of course.No IMHO the world will not come to an end,
the free ride we North Americans have enjoyed will.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:19 - ID#57232)
Japanese Savings
kiwi: I have a question for you. Do you know how that Japanese postal savings are set up. Are they like our US 403b's, 401k's and IRA's, or are they more like our US Social Security?

I'm curious -- are we seeing the confiscation of savings accounts in Japan? If a specific Japanese investor has real estate, stocks, bonds, etc. and is told to liquidate --what does he/she have to do -- is it $0.50 on the "dollar" ( yen? ) or less?

How it is handled might give us a clue what might happen to us when it is our turn.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:21 - ID#335190)
Still lurking @ Unemployment in Germany
December 9, 1997

German unemployment rises to pre-war levels

NUREMBURG, Germany ( AP ) - Germany's unemployment crisis worsened in November, with 369,000 more people out of work than in October, the Federal Labor Office announced today.

The unemployment rate was 11.3 per cent, one percentage point higher than last month and one of Germany's highest rates since before the Second World War.

Most of the jobless are in East Germany, where factories have been closed and the construction boom that brought jobs after unification in 1990 has dried up. The labor office recorded 2.94 million unemployed in western Germany, or 9.5 per cent unemployed, while 1.38 million people were without work in the four eastern states annexed with German reunification, or 18.3 per cent.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:26 - ID#333131)
A majority of Yugoslavia's banks are insolvent

John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:32 - ID#24140)
anglo - vehicle vaaly - anglo american
For pyramid -

I give up - Nobody seems to READ posts - they just WRITE posts.

Ive been screaming about anglo-american for about 2 weeks - Office

joburg for chrissake.

for everybody -

I used to think RSA mines would be rerated into line with the p/e s

of north american mining companies and go up a whole lot.

Boy was I wrong - what is happenning is that North American mines

are being rerated downwards into line with the p/e of RSA mines. this

will get nasty.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:36 - ID#57232)
Silver up $0.10 again, Gold down $4 today
All: This is the first time I can recall in the last year or so that silver completely decoupled from gold, and continues to go up, despite the fact that gold has plummeted in recent weeks. While there is no hard evidence that the gold bear has ended, Kiwi's post about UBS and others closing ranks on gold sales ( loans ) supports this. The gold loan bubble is about to burst.

There is one possibility that may still be out there to get us gold bugs, and that is there may be some "hold outs" who wish to keep gold on a downward course because they are tied to a scheme that only works when gold prices are going down ( several scenarios on Kitco have been posted ) .

As others have posted as well, gold loans must now rise exponentially to keep pushing gold bullion prices down- dollar by dollar. When the exponential rise in gold loans stops, the gold bull market is likely to be spectacular!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:43 - ID#228100)
Mr. Disney
Would you please learn how to single-space your posts.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:47 - ID#426220)
Rothschilds, Soros & RJ CANNOT BE WRONG

We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the Poor Mans Gold -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year Goldbugs Weekly Comment.

In Cormiers report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! - posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Lets capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%
Silver Standard ( SSO ) ...............UP 57%
International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%
First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) ..........UP 86%
United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%
Clifton Mining ( CFB ) ................Down 4%

Thats an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! - the current daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:

(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:48 - ID#42371)
$21 to $6.90, $3.00 to 80 cents, $41.00 to 21.00. I am just reeling off the state of my gold shares. 1926 has nothing on this. I am suprised we don't have more gold-bugs jumping off tall building, it must be because we are such eternal optomists.

The only suprising note was my Agnico eagle, AGE on Toronto while everything else got caught in the carnage this morning it has actually gone up almost 6%. My broker, who has been wrong more times than I would like has mentioned the possibility of a big producer nibbling on this as they will be bringing their production down to $220 region in two years. But hey, they will have to nibble a lot more before this guy sleeps again at night.

Message to Aussies, sell your gold, forward sell at these prices, way don't you just shoot your mothers and put granny on the auction block- I mean it's not like you are a resource based economy -eh?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 15:49 - ID#426220)
SILVER LINING by The Astrological Investor
Analyst Mike Sheller asserts long-term speculators in bullion and mining stocks may be looking at the kind of opportunity right now that presents itself every several years in the heartbeat of the gold cycle. The last time he made a similar call, he was RIGHT ON THE MONEY in predicting the lows of Oil and Gas stocks in early 1994. Subsequently, hundreds of percent gains were made.

At this particular astrological moment, he says, We kind of feel the same way right now about gold and silver. He names his favorite stocks... which may rise to the stars ( pun intended ) :

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:05 - ID#373403)
Coca-Cola downward revised earnings
Isn't it interesting that the first to revise earnings downward due to Asian turmoil is Coca-Cola? They have no Asian competition either locally or worldwide and even in turmoil, who cannot pop for a pop?

As more companies jump on this downward revision bandwagon, the current inflated price/earnings ratios which was fueled by ever rising earnings expectations will come under scrutiny.

It is a double whammy then, individual stocks will drop due to the revisions as well as the broader market which will reverse-paradigm to historic P/E ratios.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:06 - ID#287234)
tgl@Ron Brown
You have concluded your thoughts on conspiracy theory with following words "This is America, for gods sake; this "ain't" the former Soviet Union".

And I tend to agree with you. Two days ago, Russian Antonov went down

killing more than 60 people. These "former Soviet Union" guys have already recovered four flight recorders.

When Brown's plane went down approaching Dubrovnik ( Croatia ) no flight recorders were ever recovered. Do you want to know why? Because there were none abord the plane!!! At least according to the official statement.

Hard to beleive that US Air Force would not be interested in knowing what

went wrong."This is America, for gods sake; this "ain't" the former Soviet Union"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Along the same lines: A very good friend of mine was in charge of setting up the navigation procedure at that airport. His opinion, based solely on the news reports is that the US pilot did not follow the official procedure and his impression is that he was relying on some other navigation system which is not used by the civil aviation, and which obviosly failed him. I don't remember seeing the official report which does not mean that it was not published.

Croatian air traffic controler commited suicide.

Quite a few facts that feed the conspiracy theory.

Personally, I find it preposterous to crash a plane with so many people on board in order to kill Mr. Brown.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:09 - ID#285233)
My Dear Vertigo - Assuming equal weighting on your 3 mentioned investments you are down only 63%. I must congratulate you, since your shrewd investment technique has netted you lower losses than mine.
Why we should not jump??, you ask. Well, we well know what is around the corner. You lose only if you get out. I just wish I had even more cash to load up on some absolute steals out there.

When, not if, gold reaches $1,000, I will invite you all to a greatest party you have ever been to. Then, we can place faces with all this optimism, common sense, logic and deep down feeling that we are right.
Above all, have faith and maintain a steady course.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:10 - ID#295111)
Global Warming
All this talk in Japan about a global warming may convince the US to cut down on gas emmisions, which is kind of like increasing the price of oil, which increases the cost of manufactured goods and thus inflation. Therefore, GOLD is more valuable. In other words, global warming concerns may be the excuse the market "fixers" will use to create inflation. The US will re-pay it's 30 year bonds, no doubt about it, but what will your money be worth in 30 years.

But then, all this gold being loaned out is a bubble waiting to burst. Inflation will have nothing to do with it.

Silver Bull
(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:13 - ID#287312)


(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:13 - ID#215208)
John Disney - It was I. I admit it. I have been biting my lips for months now, itching to average down some of the RSA investments I made earlier. Finally couldn't take it anymore. Most likely, I'll regret it. Again!

The U.S. mining stocks still have a long way to go before they reach the valuation of the RSA stocks, as you have clearly pointed out many times. Somewhat scary when you think about it. I'm heavy in DROOY, have some KLOFY, and now a serious position in VAALY.

BTW - Feel free to triple space if you want to. Just keep it coming. Your comments are the only window I have on the world down there, and I very much appreciate them. Even if they are crusty!

For those newbies interested in Anglogold, you can enter via VAALY, FSCNY, WDEPY, DRFNY, and others. They will all be part of the merged company. John, correct me if I am wrong. Anglogold will be the powerhouse of the world gold market, with cash cost in the range of $250 and huge reserves. All the stocks are now at bargain basement prices. Also, many of the stocks were paying great dividends. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dividend in the range of 6% ( FSCNY was at 18%! )

Jump in! The waters fine!

Mr. Smith
(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:14 - ID#347333)
Time to buy GOLD and lots of it!!!!!!
This is the bottom!! Somebody could really put a hurt on the short sighted.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:15 - ID#295111)
Steady to Vertigo Post
Steady: I like your reply to Vertigo. Please invite me to your party. And you are absolutely right, those who sell now will be the losers!

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:20 - ID#295111)
Mr. Smith
Hey John, why is this the bottom??

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:25 - ID#246224)
@ Tzadeak
"the world" will push the US$ down? What in the world will 'push' it? Flight of capital. A sell off in T-Bills. Whatever is rushing in *now* will exit to some other place, just like Korea or Japan. PEI says US$ 4 TRILLION in hot money sloshing around looking for the next killing.

I think a crash is likely and have so said here. You think someone will 'push it down' in relation to other currencies. What other currencies are worthy of being more 'safe and quality' than the US$??? Not that I'm advocating an LGB_2 style ra-ra session on the US & its $ here. Its all relative to other options.

Its all intertwined. My intuition is that one day things are fine and the next the floor falls out from under you. What changed? Where the capital is flowing. If a situation demands strong capital inflows simply to maintain a certain level, rather than to rise then it is obvious that that asset will fall drasticly when the capital leaves.

If the capital flows to oil, gold, silver great. Then you have a dropping $ and rising commodities. Just what some here expect in the not to distant future.

BTW I was not trying to challenge your particular slant on this. Its just that you posted you hadn't seen many posts on US$ in relationship to gold. Was just pointing you at one just the prior night. That's all.

Hope most of us get it right for whatever reason and there is something left to reinvest in when that day arrives.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:32 - ID#24095)
technical thoughts
Like fact that XAU bounced off 64.00 to close at 64.20...ABX also held above 15...closed well at 15 3/8ths...Hope this portends well for days ahead...CNBC had metals expert Bill O'Neill on about 3:45p.m....he said he liked silver..said there was alot of divergence between three major metal groups: gold..silver..and platinum. He was bullish on silver's chances.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:32 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.44 Although this is not a new 100 year high on a closing basis I notice that Carl did observe an intraday reading of 28.64 during the day. Thanks for that observation and post Carl.

His observation marks the first time in 100 years that this level has been reached. The old high of 28.61 was set in January, 1966. This all on a day that the silver/gold ratio reached 51.7 and gold reached an 18 year low if I am not mistaken. Does anyone know when the silver/gold ratio was last at these levels? Are we heading back toward 16?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:34 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .227

Silver Bull
(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:36 - ID#287312)

SILVER 124,135,001 DOWN 564,012



(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:38 - ID#246224)
gold stox entry ??
What can you afford to lose? Play that. Look for the upswing in gold first. Basicly if the asset underlying the producers is not going up then up swings will be ( ? ) short lived. Personally I'm into physical. Have thought just abit about stox .. later, after the burn off of paper. I'm interested in looking at what people DO NOT sell off in this down trend. That says people don't want to lose that one good company, eh?

An old memory comes up in a very ephemeral way saying 'risk' when I think gold stox. Also 'swindle' comes to mind. Who can you trust? Who is WAY into derivatives that you or I can say for sure is telling the truth about it? Many questions, few answers.

Numistics seem more clear to me than gold stox. At least, as LGB has said, there is a fairly reliable multiplier on the gold price rise. His coins have appreciated as gold has dropped. That's nice. If you can get them.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:41 - ID#252166)
Gold Bottom
Gold reached bottom today based on the Dec contract. A complete 5 waves down from the 1996 highs with wave 5 equaling 1.618 of wave 1 at 281.5, today's exact bottom. Along with support from gann lines at 281.5. Strong up seasonals until mid Jan. Is this the final low? We'll know in the first quarter next year when the retest comes. Be safe and keep stops under the lows.

Dave in CO
(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:42 - ID#215211)
@sasha_A RE: No flight recorders on Brown's plane
If I remember correctly, this same plane was used by the First Lady/Co-President and some VIP's just a week before the crash. No flight recorders? I find this impossible to believe. Thanks.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:45 - ID#246224)
Possible explosion in SIlver ..
.. will ignite gold? Supply/demand in terms of Comex is very similar situation ( little metal to cover contracts, etc ) . When silver bolts for the door will people look for the next horse aavailable??? 6.5% lease rate? THAT'S A WOWWWW!!!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:51 - ID#372344)
@ Allen
Certainly agree that the flight of Capitol is one method used to devalue
currencies, there are others, such as demanding more currency or value
for one's products etc.. but my point is, the collapse you are calling for implies almost no value to the US$. As far as other currencies well how about the Swiss Franc or the New Euro, they also produce most all domestically, Oil is being arranged for IMHO thru Russia and Middle east.
And what about a Japan-China currency?

I agree, we all have our views, but as you say as long as we get there
and are able to prosper.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:53 - ID#372344)
@ Capitol=Capital

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:57 - ID#26660)
Free Lunch
Is'nt the current situation in the gold market, in that speculators are shorting gold and re-investing in either shares or T Bonds, the same situation that screwed Indonesia, with locals borrowing US dollars at 6% and investing the the local bond market at 17%, eventually that free lunch became an expensive diner.....When will this happen in the gold market,the free lunch of 2% gold borrowing and investing in T bills has to come to an end soon. Remember that the Rupiah has declined 100% in the past year...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:57 - ID#93232)
Allen ( USA ) ...Hooray! Congratulations from True Grit fans everwhere.

After we get this gold deal straightened is of tantamount importance that we spearhead a popular movement to remove that socialist Jefferson from the nickel and replace him with JOHN "BY GOD" WAYNE.

A great 'Merican. Yo!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 16:59 - ID#194311)
another bubble out of control
Branson Balloon Breaks Away
Richard Branson's balloon left without him Tuesday. The
British tycoon saw his latest attempt to fly nonstop around the
world shattered when his giant balloon broke from its moorings
as it was being pumped with helium and blew away three hours
before launch time. The 195-foot balloon headed toward Algeria
on its own with Moroccan military helicopters in pursuit.
Branson said if the balloon is recovered in good shape, he might
try again next week.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:00 - ID#426220)
It is a standing professional joke that young lawyers short on experience must continually be chasing ambulances and hanging out at Emergency Rooms, seeking new clients who have been run-over, or have in some way been injured by a third party. Since they have not yet build up their practice, they are obliged to find prospective clients WHEREVER. To these hungry banisters and esquires I direct this call.

To my knowledge no single group of hard-working people in recent years has been more injured than those hapless victims who placed sweat-earned savings in some form of gold investment ( bullion, gold mining shares or coins ) . This unfortunate group has been laid, relayed and parlaed. In the vernacular: SCREWED! This group has suffered material damage, inflicted by two organizations exercising reckless abandon in their daily operations. I am referring of course to Central Banks and some Gold Mining companies.

The group causing the most damage to the honest gold investor is the very deep-ocketed Central Banks. Their reckless activities take two forms: Gold Loans or Leasing, and the relentless propaganda campaign to discredit gold as a store of value. The second perpetrator causing injury are those gold mining companies selling their gold production forward... often years of anticipated production. The reckless practice of both groups has caused gold prices to fall to an 18 year low today -- causing untold hardship for those investors who have placed a portion of their hard-earned saving in traditional standard of value. But the loss is NOT LIMITED TO their depreciated investment portfolios, which is almost impossible to estimate. There is another very material loss that no one talks about, but is very easy to estimate.

Central Bank Gold Holdings -

It is a well-known fact Central Banks hold one third of the worlds existing gold inventory. Expert sources state Central Banks hold about 35,000 metric tons of gold. Thats approximately 1.1 Trillion troy ounces. Now consider this horrendous loss. During the last two year of relentless Central Bank gold lending operations - and incessant propaganda bad-mouthing gold as a store of value - the yellow metal lost $132 per ounce! This represents a total Central Bank investment portfolio loss of about $150 BILLION. Now if Central Banks really belong to the people of the country, then WE ALL SHARE THIS LOSS CAUSED BY THE MALFEASANCE OF CENTRAL BANK OFFICIALS. And adding insult to injury, the Central Bankers are aided and abetted by - IRONICALLY - some gold mining companies selling gold forward.

Am I being too severe in my personal common-sense logic?! It is my considered opinion we are all being grievously and materially injured by two groups who seem to be immune to any critique of the way they do business. It is NOT ONLY those who suffer portfolio losses due to Central Bank activities, and the dubious practices of some gold mining managements selling forward production they MAY mine 2-3 years from now, BUT EVERY SINGLE TAX-PAYING CITIZEN must foot the bill for the Central Banks losses in its gold portfolio... a loss now at $150 Billion, AND COUNTING!

I am a reasonable person, but I feel I have suffered material loss. Somehow I believe there are tens of thousands of others in the same sinking boat... ARE THERE GROUNDS FOR A CLASS-ACTION LAW SUIT? Are there any aggressive, enterprising and hungry lawyers out there in cyber-world?

This is the way I see and interpret what has been occurring in the last couple of years. Are there any other viewpoints out there. Lets share them. For more excruciating detail of Central Bank gold activities, please review:

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:02 - ID#26660)
Australian Reserve Bank Sale
when will the Aussies wake up to the fact that since they sold their gold Aussies have become significantly poorer in terms of purchasing power to the US$, since commentators and analysts are talking about the correlation between the A$ and gold, as gold has fallen so has the A$. Effectivley all the assets of Australians have been devalued, plus the US$ debt owed by Australia has surged by greater than the proceeds of the Aust gov sale. Its been a zero sum gain for Australians - in fact we are now worse off - thanks a million Costello

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:03 - ID#35767)
Silver Lease rates 6% 1 mo 5.84% 3mo 6.34% 6mo 6.63% 1 year
Rates have almost doubled in two days. Comex stox down another 500k.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:07 - ID#258427)
ROR ... isn't that what propelled PA and PL to all time high's???

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:07 - ID#338289)
Dave in CO - Flight Recorders
Dave in CO: I read the article about the Commerce Dept employee. Chilling. One note on the flight recorders. If memory serves me properly it is normal, at least at the time that plane was built, for military transports not to have flight recorders installed. That plane is a military version of the 737, I think. Maybe we have an A.F. Goldbug out there that can verify this for me.


(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:08 - ID#347235)
Production Costs
I have been unable to find the production costs of mining companies to
produce an ounce of gold. Anyones help would be appreciated on where to

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:11 - ID#78117)
William Jennings Bryan
Donald, you sound a lot like William Jennings Bryan, the populist Democrat who lost the presidency 3 times to hard gold interests. He too wanted to return to Free Silver, the minting of silver coins at 16:1. He declared that the American worker should not be crucified on a cross of gold! Bryan went on to prosecute the Monkey trial in Tennessee, where evolution was thrown in favor of creationism.

Well, times have changed. There is no magic formula that says X should equal Y. One of the beauties of capitalism is that values change and markets adjust to take that change into account. Gold is going the way of silver in the 1890s. It is being de-monetarized and as such will continue to fall in value for some time to come. The result for gold miners and gold holders will be the same as for the silver miners. Go to Leadville Colorado sometime and see all the abandoned silver mines. Or read about the silver Barons like H.A.W. Tabor and Baby Doe and through the history of silver you will learn of the future of gold.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:11 - ID#194311)
David...nail on the head!
the derivative market ensures that any arbitrage situations are quickly taken advantage of...the big banks know this and have been playing this up to the full... they have been the biggest hirers of equation grinders in recent years.
What it inevitably means though is that each and every currency is going to be asked to measure up against it's supply and demand status. Right now gold is the only truly finite money so will eventually emerge as the winner. Meanwhile however the dollar parades as "good as gold" but this situation will not be long lived as the free lunch becomes the expensive dinner.
The derivative plays on gold will swing around and lash out at the dollar with a fury that has been building up for more than 60 years and amplified by all the risk-reward analyses; you see compared with the dollar, or any paper currency, gold will always have a better risk reward as it is politically neutral. The Black-Scholes equation will show this up for all to see and this is not going to be a pretty sight...arguably the gold market may be closed down as this eventuality would threaten civilisation as we know it....not such a bad thought really.

REM "It's the end of the world as we know it...and I feel FINE"

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:12 - ID#35767)
Its rare in silver in fact I have never seen it. You have to admit silver has NEVER rallied 1.20 while gold has fallen nearly 60 bucks. The negative forward rates for 9 mos and a year was startling. Further there was NO rate quoted for 3 and mos. Does this mean 0 or something else.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:17 - ID#318321)
@hanky panky in china

Beijing's Bonds

By Timothy W. Maier

China has a banking crisis, with $90 billion in
nonperforming loans. Beijing acknowledges 20
percent of loans have gone sour, and the U.S.
taxpayers could be made to bail them out.

he China hawks are armed with a get-tough-on-China bill
that could limit Beijing's access to the U.S. capital market.
The bill, called the U.S. Market Securities Act, sailed
through a Senate Banking subcommittee last month and now is
traveling full-speed ahead for a possible vote next year in the
House and Senate.
. . . . Supporters say the measure takes the first step in
providing both national-security protection and a safeguard for
taxpayers by creating a screening process at the Securities
Exchange Commission, or SEC, to monitor fund-raising
activities of companies with ties to Beijing. Opponents say it
will be an expensive federal regulatory nightmare that won't
. . . . But to Wall Street's dismay, the legislation is gathering
strong support on Capitol Hill. The China hawks claim Beijing
fails to disclose its business dealings with military enterprises.
They fear that of the funds being raised by the Chinese
communist regime, close to $7 billion from bonds, may be
finding their way into the arms of the People's Liberation Army,
or PLA -- the same army that rolled tanks into Tiananmen
Square to crush a pro-democracy demonstration in 1989.
. . . . The U.S. Treasury Department does not restrict foreign
countries from the bond market unless they are subject to
embargo or trade sanctions, even if a national-security concern
exists. The legislation doesn't sit too well with Wall Street.
Economists warn that the day the bill is passed the Hong Kong
flu that rocked the American stock market two days before the
subcommittee held hearings on it will return with a vengeance.
. . . . A temporary market setback, however unlikely, is a small
price to pay to ensure national security, says Roger Robinson,
a senior director of international economic affairs at the
National Security Council under President Reagan and one of
the principal architects of the bill. "If China is not doing the
wrong thing, it has nothing to worry about," he insists. "All we
want is a list of names. The American people have inquiring
minds and they want to know. What we want to know is who
were the funders and suppliers that paid for weapons of mass
destruction now held by Iraq. We can't answer that because
we don't know."
. . . . Charles Wolf, dean of the Rand Institute's graduate
school of political studies, doesn't buy the story that the money
is supporting missiles for the PLA. Wolf says, "The hawks start
the premise by saying China is doing as much as they can get
away with, but that's like asking, How many angels can sit on
the head of a pin? There is some indirect borrowing or some
indirect leakage to the military, but it is not all that big a deal.
What is a big deal is pursuing military modernization, especially
the Russians. But that's something the intelligence agencies and
military should do. I don't think that is the purview of the SEC."

. . . . But Robinson points to China International Trust and
Investment Corp., or CITIC, which is run by kaffeeklatsch
guest and PLA arms dealer Wang Jun, to show it's not the
amount of money but the potentially devastating quality of some
of these weapons. For example, CITIC received $800 million
from 15 bonds, and some of those funds may have drifted into
Wang's weapons company, Poly Technologies -- which last
year was caught smuggling 2,000 AK-47 assault rifles to
California street gangs and which tried to sell rockets capable
of bringing down jetliners.
. . . . "How would we feel if a street gang shot down a national
airliner?" Robinson asks. "When you have the wrong
management with the wrong reporting structure and not a true
corporate identity, you have the ingredients in today's
information and technology age for world-class incidents and
national-security challenges."
. . . . Leading the charge that is gaining considerable support on
Capitol Hill are Senate Banking subcommittee on Financial
Institutions and Regulatory Relief chairman Lauch Faircloth of
North Carolina and House Rules Chairman Gerald Solomon of
New York. The bill these conservative Republicans introduced
in the Senate and House also asks the Pension Benefit
Guaranty Corp., a federal agency, to issue annual reports on
communist China's securities that are held in the portfolios of
pension funds -- a protection for the American taxpayer.
. . . . On Nov. 5, Solomon spelled out the significance of the
bill by predicting economic warfare soon will supersede
more-traditional forms of conflict. "With the emergence of the
new global economy creating megamergers involving many
foreign conglomerates, some of which are reported to involve
international Mafia connections and drug-cartel monies, this
Office of National Security within the SEC is an absolute must.
In other words, we need a special watchdog agency
specifically committed to making sure no entity can engineer
fluctuations that could bring our markets down."
. . . . And Faircloth tells Insight the bill simply is trying to
protect the hard-earned savings of the American taxpayer.
"We must take steps to ensure that the average American
investor enjoys the same market protection abroad that he
does here stateside," Faircloth says. "In other words, the
American investor must be alerted to the insider trading,
adulterated disclosure and manipulated accounting standards
commonly practiced in the debt and equity markets of
countries such as China. Further, the American people need to
be aware that through their pension and mutual-fund
investments they may be unwittingly supporting the
modernization of the Chinese military."
. . . . The bill has bipartisan support from the left-wing,
Berkeley-based environmental watchdog group International
Rivers Network, or IRN. The group last month launched an
advertising blitz calling on American investors to order their
fund managers to dump all investments tied with China's State
Development Bank, which is behind the huge Three Gorges
Dam project. IRN Executive Director Owen Lammers calls it
one of the "largest and most environmentally and socially
destructive projects on Earth," claiming it will not improve flood
control or provide the electrical power needed but instead will
displace 1.9 million people. "We're asking investors to tell their
fund managers to get out of those bonds supporting this,"
Lammers tells Insight.
. . . . Investors probably have very little idea about how the
money is being spent based on the perspectives the Beijing
banks provide. The State Development Bank supplies a list of
10 projects under development and less than 200 words about
the Three Gorges Dam. "They technically disguise this project
claiming it will cost $30 billion but unofficially will likely cost
$75 billion because they are building a dam that would stretch
from Boston to New York," Lammers says.
. . . . Insight also obtained hundreds of pages of SEC
documents involving other Chinese companies, and what is
apparent is what is not present. Red Chinese entities are short
on specifics and background information, especially regarding
Wang Jun and his ties to the military. The lack of detailed
prospectuses is one of the reasons why Randolph Shih Shung
Quon, a Chinese-American financial consultant who worked in
Hong Kong as an adviser to the Chinese Central Bank from
1993 to 1995, is demanding that the SEC investigate Beijing's
offerings underwritten by some leading investment firms such as
Goldman Sachs & Co. and Morgan Stanley, Dean Witter,
Discover & Co. The SEC is not commenting.
. . . . Quon wants to know why foreign countries such as the
People's Republic of China are not held to the same threshold
of disclosure as American companies. Now based in
Washington at the Free Congress Foundation, a conservative
think tank, Quon claims he fled to the United States after
reporting fraudulent activities among the Beijing princelings'
children. "Whether the Chinese government can be trusted to
play by the rules, I have serious doubts," Quon tells Insight.
"This is the time to lay down the law in Asia. There is no level
playing field. They are like 19th-century barons."
. . . . Quon, who testified at the subcommittee hearings, called
for SEC investigations into several high-profile stock and bond
deals claiming disclosure violations. For example, he says that
just before the $4.2 billion China Telecom offering Wu Jichuan,
communist China's minister of posts and telecommunications,
stated the government soon would hand over valuable assets to
the new company. Wu also declared he would allow China
Telecom to book certain networks that normally would go
through state companies. In addition, Quon notes the China
Telecom prospectus filed with the SEC failed to disclose Hong
Kong billionaire Li Kashing had been found to be involved in
an insider-trading scheme and that Li controlled companies that
in turn controlled 10 percent of China Telecom.
. . . . Michael J. Evans, managing director of Goldman Sachs,
the firm that handled the offering, did not return repeated phone
messages left at his offices in Hong Kong, London and New
York. However, Evans has claimed in other interviews that his
firm followed the letter and spirit of U.S. securities law, that
Wu only repeated points made in the China Telecom
prospectus and that any fee adjustments would have to be
reviewed by SEC.
. . . . Some economists and Wall Street watchers warn that the
legislative proposal creates a costly layer of bureaucracy and is
impossible to enforce because, they argue, once funds go to a
state-owned company, Beijing still could covertly divert the
money to the PLA. "This is a chapter out of Alice in
Wonderland," says Steve Hanke, a professor of economics at
Johns Hopkins and former Reagan economic adviser. "I can't
conceive how you would make certain the money would stay in
state-owned enterprises. Even if it could be done, would it
make any difference? The answer is no."
. . . . Hanke says the money just would be funneled from
another source and there is no possible way to monitor every
single dollar. "This is a full-employment bill for bureaucratic
parasites that want to be doing something. It's jobs for the boys
-- for the bureaucrats in Washington who want to regulate
something that is over China. The effect of this bill in China?
You couldn't find it on the radar screen. You won't have any
effect in what's going on in China. The administrative expense
will cost us and it will cost them. It's going to raise the cost of
Chinese doing business. It will be more difficult to make these
bond issues."
. . . . Intelligence specialists including Robinson strongly
disagree with Hanke's evaluation, claiming this simply could be
done with one person plugging names into a computer and
sending information to Congress for intelligence reviews.
. . . . "The idea that it is some costly process is rubbish," insists
Robinson, who President Reagan credited as being "the
architect of a security-minded and cohesive U.S. East-West
economic policy." If it is not done, Robinson predicts huge
defaults that ultimately would be paid by U.S. taxpayers.
. . . . To understand the seriousness of the situation, one must
look no further than Beijing's major banks, which effectively
are bankrupt because of $90 billion in nonperforming loans,
says Robinson. Beijing acknowledges that 20 percent of all the
bank loans have turned sour, although most analysts say that is
an underestimate. Consider the recent bank failure in Japan --
triggered by 8 percent nonperforming loans. The People's
Republic of China has a banking crisis, with U.S. taxpayers
potentially picking up the bill, Robinson says.
. . . . The Economist refers to these banks as "unstable and
mired in debt," because the "banks' senior executives rarely are
given reliable information by their loan officers." Peter
Schweizer, a scholar at the Hoover Institution, says investing in
bonds issued by these banks could be a disaster waiting to
happen. "U.S. pension funds and individuals who have invested
in these bonds could end up holding worthless paper," he says.
. . . . Is Red China's debt really cause for concern? Tom
Byrne, vice president and senior analyst at Moody's Investors
Service in New York, tells Insight he thinks the debt is
manageable. "It is a major problem, but unlike other countries
external borrowing is fairly well-controlled," Byrne says.
"Long-term borrowing is fairly tight and the short-term debt is
at a reasonable level. They have controlled it, and they have
sent out signals that they will continue to control it."
. . . . Robinson counters, "I received the same assurances
about the Soviet Union that Moscow's debt was entirely
manageable. They said I was overreacting then. Well, what
was the epilogue? Very simply, roughly $100 billion in Soviet
debt to Western governments was lost in a 25-year
. . . . What did the Soviet Union do with all that U.S. cash?
They made their attack submarines quieter and enhanced their
range so that now "they can threaten every American city with
no advance warning sign," Robinson says.
. . . . But there is a significant difference between Russia and
China in these matters because, unlike bank loans, the bonds
cannot be rescheduled. Instead, if it can't pay the debt, Beijing
simply will default -- forcing U.S. taxpayers to bail it out.
. . . . The whole Asian picture is cause for alarm in light of
recent events with more than $100 billion in bailouts already
expected. South Korea leads the pack with $50 billion;
Indonesia is at $37 billion; Thailand, $17 billion; and Malaysia
at $10 billion. The United States is responsible for bailing out
25 percent of it. Now throw Beijing into that picture and the
result 10 years from now could be another $100 billion bailout.
. . . . And disclosure may be imperfect, Robinson admits. But
he says a do-nothing approach could bankrupt the future of
American children even as our money and credits, aid and
trade, are used to finance building Red China into a military
superpower. "Taken alone, the widespread proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction and ballistic-missile delivery
systems constitutes a sufficient argument for the establishment
of an Office of National Security at the SEC," Robinson says.
"After all, foreign governments are by far the largest category
of proliferators -- but you may be certain the American people
will not want to discover in the future that their leaders
bankrupted them to fund enemies in an epic global tragedy."

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:20 - ID#426220)
Class-Action Posting typo: 1.1 Trillion troy ounces - should be 1.1 Billion troy ounces. ALL OTHER NUMBERS ARE CORRECT

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:20 - ID#372285)
David: Re Aussie Federal Reserve Gold Sale
I can't understand your logic, or the others who post such nonsense. The price of gold would have fallen to these levels with or without the Australian sale. By selling when they did, the Aussies made a very profitable deal ( or cut their losses, call it what you will ) . The Ausssie Federal Reserve should be complimented, not denigrated.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:24 - ID#35767)
Gold has already completed its de monetization over the last 17 years. The gold std was history in 1933. All it is is a commodity and a liquid medium of exchange. To state that it hasnt been demonetized is to not recognize history. When silver was "demonetized" there was an issue of it being govtal money no such issue exists today with gold as it was resolved long ago and is in its final stage of rebuking gold now call it the FINAL rebuke. Sir you are mistaking a top for a bottom. Further Silver skyrocketed in the seventies after it had long been demonetized. The external events then and now will govern PM prices. The discussion re gold of late looks like the death of equties discussion in 1982. Further the CBs who want to see it down have probably lent so much the have little left to sell. Many CBs are buying gold or holding. By the way the selling of gold has done wonders for the Aussie and Canadian currencies. Dont mistake a low for the top. All the Best!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:35 - ID#194311) demonetised?
Tell that to the Bank of International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. The banker of last resort for all the world's central banks. This means they have a huge quantity of metal that is worthless as money, now that is apocolyptic...unless they are selling their gold to stock up on US toilet paper assets and microsoft shares?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:35 - ID#237164)
Any experience dealing with ...
If you care to share any experiences that you might have had with

with me, I would appreciate it. Please send any comments to or post here.

Thank you.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:38 - ID#408147)
junk-news-factor I am starting to get more and more newletters for the so-called experts ( right... ) saying the I need to jump into gold/gold/coins/gold stocks ( depending on the company the expert is representing ) . This is a bad omen for any short-term miracle rally in gold ( based upon my assumption that 90% of all newsletters are based on fads/faulty premises ) . Hopefully, the junk-newsletter-factor will go away with another slide down to $270-$275...I'm still completely out of the gold market ( since early November ) but anxiously awaiting some positive signal that a bottom has formed before I will jump in again. I am getting ready to start taking profits in stocks during this last rally-to-8300 attempt by the Dow.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:42 - ID#39133)
Class Action Law Suit
Attn: Vronsky

I will second the motion for your proposed Class Action Law suit.

The central bankers and certain gold mines now have the investment
"herd" right where they want them.

Many investors have surely suffered from the truly corrupt actions
of the aforementioned market manipulators.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:47 - ID#35767)
I meant money in a direct spendable sense. Gold will always have value because it is no govts liability and govts dont trust other govts and people dont trust govts.

Rayzer Gettin carried away
I havent received a thing in the mail hawking gold. Nevertheless, no matter the price someone will always be trying to hawk it as long as it is produced. As I recall there were many newsletters hawking stocks in 1982.

Charles Keeling
(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:48 - ID#344225)
Venerosa Phone Call
I just hung up following a 45 minute conference
call with Venerosa that was hosted by Canarc
Resources. Gold iinvestors from Luxemborg,
Switzerland and all over were involved in the

Consensus was:

1. The US Dollar to weaken in 1998 to
accomodate foreign purchases of US goods.

2. Japanese melt down now more likely.

3. Swiss CB sale of gold highly unlikely
because it requires a change in the Costitution,
and polls now indicate no consensus. A popular
majority is required, and the Cantonal vote will
go against the sale of Swiss Gold.

Christopher Blocker the opposition party leader
is against the proposal. Also, even it it did
pass, no sales to occur until 2000, and even if
sales are made then, the amount to be sold is

Did I learn anything new? No. But, it proves
that all us Gold Bugs are watching very close
for the once in a lifetime opportunity to buy
that yellow stuff at bargain basement prices.

Venerosa's latest reccomendation is CANARC
RESOURCES. This is an exploration company with
2 mil ounces of drill indicated reserves, no debt,
and two new big discoveries in Suriname. They
just recently formed a JV with Placer Dome &
Cyprus Amax.

Buy low-Sell high. Go GOld.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:48 - ID#26793)
@Karlito 99
Me? Creationist? William Jennings Bryan? Hardly. I posted a fact and asked a question. Newton claimed the natural ratio to be 15:1 as I recall. I read somewhere, maybe here at kitco, that the ratio was 10:1 for thousands of years.

Golden Boy
(Tue Dec 09 1997 17:57 - ID#430233)
Tim 17:20
I feel as you that the Aussie's seem wise in retrospect to have sold when they did. Anybody seen the latest fron I believe bank of Nova Scotia opening a "store" somewhere in Asia to sell gold goodies. Does this mean that eveeryone is going to start to sell their gold and then buy it back when it becomes alot cheaper??? Where's the bottom to this gold bear?? Where's the next supporty level?? Down 5.95 doesn't look like the bottom here.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:11 - ID#30116)
John Disney__A
John Disney__A -- I have to admitt.... I've been holding Vaal Reefs and Western Deep for a while. I'm going to try this 'thing' called 'dollar cost averaging'. If we haven't hit the bottom yet ( !! ) , my stock price targets are the 1993 lows for the majors. At this rate, I think the 'discount' commission will cost about as much as the stocks do... :- ) )

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:14 - ID#372285)
Golden Boy
Thank you; at least one other person can see the wisdom in their decision. As to the answer to your general question, where is the bottom ? Who knows ? I wouldn't be buying now until the fundamental supply/demand forces have shifted to the positive AND there is a decent technical rally. When that will happen is anybody's guess.

Charles Keeling
(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:16 - ID#344225)
@ HUT_A RE: Production costs.
Production costs vary from $185.00 to
$320.00 an ounce.

Most of those mines with costs over
$300.00 are already closed down.
That is of course except for mines that
sold production forward by hedging.

Supply ( coming from mines ) will be slowing
dramatically in coming months at current
prices. Will demand go up? That all depends
on the Central Banks.

Golden Boy
(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:18 - ID#430233)
I feel sorry for all of us who may be left holding the bag. This bear market has no other name than "Brutal". While the general markets have been skyrocketing we've been on a runaway train going straight south. Lots are afraid to jump off and maybe it's too late ( but then again maybe it's not ) .

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:18 - ID#210114)
David: Fall of Oz Dollar
The Australian Dollar has not fallen because of the RBA Gold Sale. It has fallen because we are so involved in Asia and Asia is in the toilet right now. The Japanese are selling Oz Govt Bonds etc which is driving dollar down. The RBA Gold Sale was just a drop in the bucket compared to the general bearish sentiment on Gold.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:23 - ID#426220)
Bre-X Survivor Clarifies Why He Invested
An obscure but brilliant analyst in 1995 discovered for himself the incredible potential of the Bre-X gold mine in Indonesia. His analysis was based on only the data available to the public. At that time the analyst was an employee in a credit institution in Alberta, Canada. He is none other than John Kutyn, who IMHO is one of the most perceptive and accurate analyzers of the brewing South-East Asian currency and stock market debacle - which is rapidly precipitating the DOMINO EFFECT... capable of bringing the Japanese Banking system to its knees.

His story is as factual as it is indeed fascinating. Although his analysis was based upon fraudulent information fabricated by the unscrupulous management of Bre-X, his evaluation was nonetheless flawless. It is indeed a captivating read...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:25 - ID#237164)
Has anyone bought from ...
If you care to share any experiences that you might have had with

with me, I would appreciate it. Please send any comments to or post here.

Thank you.

Golden Boy
(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:26 - ID#430233)
I hope you keep posting your comments. IMO most people who post here are fundamentalists. We need some balance from the technical side. I agree with your brief view of what we need before this thing shows any evidence of stopping. My experience in other businesses indicates that there has to be alot of consolidation in mining companies, some companies will go broke because they have negative value especially those who have been carrying assets on their books that on closer inspection will prove to be rrelatively worthless, and what will emerge are stronger more focused companies rready to take advantage of stable and possibly increasing gold prices. How long this will take is anybodys guess but it could take a couple of years. The task for all investors is to invset in companies that will survive.

Golden Boy
(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:32 - ID#430233)
P.S. to Tim
We also need good accountants who know how to crunch the numbers accurately.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:39 - ID#426220)
INGER SEES S&P500 AT 1000 BEFORE RESPITE (December 9, 1997)
CNBC financial celebrity and analyst par excellence, Gene Inger, provides us a dissection of last weeks action, and shares his prognosis of that to come in various markets:

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:45 - ID#57232)
The bankers bank,the BIS,is firmly on the gold standard
kiwi: I like your 17:35 comeback about how gold is or is not "demonetized". The bankers bank, the BIS, is the only bank in the world ( I think ) that actually defines ( underline defines ) its currency in terms of ounces of gold. If gold was worthless and inflatable like paper, the BIS would not do so. I wonder why everyone refers to the "gold standard" when they want the best way to do something. Is is just a figure of speech? Wasn't it Bernard Baruch ( sp? ) who said that - regardless of what people say about gold - you cannot ignore 4000 years of history?

The banker's currency of last resort at the bank of last resort:

============================= GOLD ======================================

That says it all!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:47 - ID#370249)
In an interview today, Tom Caldwell of Caldwell Securities stated that the
ROLE of GOLD in the world economy is far from dead, he suggested that
the US FED might buy GOLD at these low prices ( producer costs ) and
issue US$ to rescue Asia, thereby stabalizing any effects that action would have up or down on the US$.

Go Gold!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:50 - ID#338289)
Bart: Here's a link for you.

What's your status? We certainly don't want our favorite method of communication to disappear into the ether. At least, not any more than it does now, anyway, eh.


(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:53 - ID#24095)
@ Barrick Gold
Barrick Gold ( ABX ) fifth in volume at nearly 5 million shares traded...

Can any conclusions be drawn?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:54 - ID#348129)
High flying ORACLE was down $10.00 - almost 1/3 today alone. Even if you would have bought Gold bullion at it's recent highs you are doing better. This stock market will be a killer when the virus spreads.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:56 - ID#239365)
South African mines
John Disney

I use to trade SA mines, especially East Rand, Harmony, Western Deep,
Freegold, Randfontein, Saint-Helena...

Which of them do you think can survive more than one year with gold
at 280$ ?

Thanks for your help.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:57 - ID#35767)
Job interview
A friend has gotten me a contact for an interview for a finance/economics type o job at the IMF! Should I tell them I am a goldbug.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:58 - ID#269191)
Fed buying gold not having an effect on dollar?
That doesn't seem quite right. If the fed buys any asset it injects reserves into the banking system which would have an effect on the supply
of dollars. It works the same way as buying treasury bills in the open
market or am I missing something? Please explain further.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 18:59 - ID#269191)
Not if you want the job.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:00 - ID#374302)
Golden Boy at 18:26; Vronsky at 17:00
Golden Boy: Sound words. Vronsky: I have just had my dinner, so I am no longer a "hungry banister" ( quaint turn of phrase you have ) . I have given some thought to your intriguing idea of a class action lawsuit against Central Banks. I can see some hurdles immediately which might prove insurmountable. Among these are ( 1 ) problems of venue; ( 2 ) problems of causation if the action was based in negligence ( an alternative may be to base the action on breach of trustee's fiduciary duty ) ; ( 3 ) problems of standing to sue. Unfortunately, these are complex issues in the context of the suit you are proposing, and would require comprehensive research, which I have not the time to carry out ( especially for no fee ! ) . A most intriguing idea, though, from both a legal and an economic perspective.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:02 - ID#24095)
@ overnight markets..GC8G & SI8H
The Mining Company

has both gold and silver up at this hour.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:06 - ID#269191)
Barrick gold's 5 million shares.
My guess would be that there is alot of tax selling and there
probably is some accumulation by some big buyers who expect
a turnaround in the gold price. I read that hedge funds will take large
positions in gold stocks while still shorting the physical metal. They
make money shorting the metal and buy the stocks cheap. When they stop
shorting, the metal rises in price and the stocks go up in price several times faster than the underlying metal because of a mine's operating
leverage. Hopefully that's what is going on now. This could also explain, at least partially, why the stocks lead the metal up.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:07 - ID#28594)
dem golden slippers....

1 AUD = 0.002335 XAU gold ounces ( NY )
1 NZD = 0.002083 XAU gold ounces ( NY )
1 CAD = 0.0024462 XAU gold ounces ( NY )

1 DEM = 0.001947 XAU gold ounces ( NY )
1 GBP = 0.0057304 XAU gold ounces ( NY )
1 FRF = 0.0005815 XAU gold ounces ( NY )
1 CHF = 0.002396 XAU gold ounces ( NY )
1 NLG = 0.001727 XAU gold ounces ( NY )

1 ITL = 0.00000199 XAU gold ounces ( NY )
1 BEF = 0.00009440 XAU gold ounces ( NY )

1 BRR = 0.0031294 XAU gold ounces ( NY )
( Brazil )
1 ARP = 0.0034807 XAU gold ounces ( NY )
( Argentina )
1 MXP = 0.0004496 XAU gold ounces ( NY )
( Mexico )

1 CNY = 0.0004200 XAU gold ounces ( NY )
( Chinese Renmimbi )
1 JPY = 0.000026663 XAU gold ounces ( NY )

1 USD = 0.0034782 XAU gold ounces ( NY )

1 XDR = 0.0046920 XAU gold ounces ( NY )

1 GF = 0.29032258 grammes of fine gold
( BIS )
Article 4 of the Banks Statutes defines the gold franc as
representing 0.29032258 grammes of fine gold.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:17 - ID#410194)
It's in!!!
****************************** A REMINDER *****************************
Tuesday December 9th:

The bottom is in at 281.50!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:21 - ID#372344)
I suppose what he may talking about ( just a guess ) is this,what would happen to the US$ if the FED, had to print the US$ to bail Asia because the US congress would not provide ( US Taxpayers ) the funds to the IMF.
My guess is the US$ would go down viewing it as inflationary. But if
they bought GOLD in the market at the same time, it could act as a stabalizing factor ( psychological ) since the US$ would then be percieved stronger because they hafd more GOLD.This has to do with perception in the markets and not necessarily reality, which is double talk but then have you ever heard AG talk? My take is they will inflate, but try desperately to double talk it. Gold in any event has only really one way to go. UP!!!!
By the way for those who believe Gold has not been a good investment
tell that to the Swiss Markets that hit a new HIGH today mainly because
of their strong GOLD backed Banks.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:23 - ID#24095)
@gold up
Can it be true Kitcoites? a breath of fresh air...Has the worm at last turned? February spot gold at this hour up to 286.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:23 - ID#426220)
Tim ( Golden Boy at 18:26; Vronsky at 17:00 ) : many thx for your expressing the concerns, BUT I draw your legal mind attention to the damages of $150 Billion of Central Bank portfolio gold losses, PLUS untold individual portfolio losses. My good lawyer, this HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR a far far greater legal fee than the suit against Silcon Breast Implants Class-action. My dear lawyer, dream tonight of the Mother of all Law-Suits... this only comes along ONECE in the career of any lawyer. I forget the famous French appropriate expression, but in english it is: SIEZE THE OPPORTUNITY!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:28 - ID#284255)
Monetary Stresses
Federal Reserve Bank
Understanding Open Market Operations
Monetary Policy and the Economy
Monetary Stresses and Reserve Management
Decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee
Implementing Monetary Policy - I
Implementing Monetary Policy - II

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:32 - ID#287367)
Which URL do you use to see the current price of gold?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:33 - ID#426220)
Tim ( Golden Boy at 18:26; Vronsky at 17:00 ) :
Undoubtedly, you remember VIVIDLY THE OJ TRIAL SAGA. Were YOU OJ's lawyers, and knowing the ramifications of the outcome, WOULD YOU HAVE NOT DONE IT PRO BONO????! But, in this type of suit, not only is PRO BONO interesting for its legal marketing value, BUT doing it on a 'Contingency Basis' would allow 100 lawyers to RETIRE IN INDEED GRAND STYLE..... Mr. Lawyer dream sweetly tonight....... if you can...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:36 - ID#374302)
My Dear Vronsky, ( LOL!! ) Good heavens, what do you take me for, an avaricious ambulance-chaser !? Unfortunately, I am fully committed until mid-March, 1998. By then, the CBs may have ( a ) bankrupted the entire world economy; ( b ) bankrupted all the world's goldbugs; ( c ) bought all the gold back, at much reduced prices, from those to whom the gold-borrowers sold it, and bankrupted the world's gold-borrowers; or ( d ) driven the POG back up again, making everybody happy, except gold bears and greedy lawyers.

Much as I would love to "sieze the day" ( perhaps you were thinking of the Latin "carpe diem" ) , I regret that circumstances are against me.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:39 - ID#24095)
@ updated quotes
Crystal Ball...I use
It is a paid for service...but you also get delayed quotes ( 20 minutes ) ....
XAU at XAU.X in realtime during trading hours...also around the clock S&P futures ( falling at this moment ) real time at SP7Z...Good Luck!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:39 - ID#426220)
Tim ( Golden Boy at 18:26; Vronsky at 17:00 ) - A single word to the wise is sufficient.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:44 - ID#284255)
If one tall poppy should suddenly fall.....there'll be nine tall poppy's waiting next in line.
Oracle Shares Plunge on Bleak Earnings Outlook
PALO ALTO, Calif. ( Reuters ) - Oracle Corp. stock tumbled 29 percent in heavy trading Tuesday after the database software company said it faced at least two quarters of slowing profit growth because of sluggish business in Asia.

More worrisome, Oracle, the world's second-largest software company, may face several quarters of slow revenue growth. Analysts said most companies that would need Oracle's high-end database and business software already have a copy.

"We've said they face market saturation,"

Oracle stock fell $9.44 to $22.94 on volume of 171.8 million shares, a record for a single stock on Nasdaq. The stock touched $22.375 during the session, a two-year low.

Wall Street watches Oracle's stock closely because its databases serve as a foundation for millions of dollars of other business management software. Weak sales by Oracle could mean a broad segment of the software industry is in trouble, analysts said.

That suggests Oracle's list of potential customers is thinning, analysts said. The company is already the biggest vendor in the $5 billion database software business.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:47 - ID#287367)
Just out of curiosity- Yes, the actions of these irresponsible people have caused the Treasury's gold reserves to go down in value vis-a-vis the dollar; but haven't these same actions caused the Treasury's cache of US Dollars to INCREASE in value? So now each citizen's share of the gold hoard is worth less in terms of dollars, but each citizen's share of paper $$ is worth so much more in terms of gold! So how did any of us ( collectively speaking ) lose anything? ... Of course, those of us who have made individual investment decisions to buy gold or gold-mining stocks are under water ( thus far ) . Something to think about! {:- ) }

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:49 - ID#374302)
I see what you mean. But even if you have a watertight case, these suits can break the litigants and their lawyers. Have you read "A Civil Action" by Jonathan Harr. If not, it is a thoroughly good read, and makes this particular point for me. Bear in mind, you would be up against arguably the deepest-pocketed defendants in the world.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:51 - ID#287367)
Thanks. I do use QuoteCom's free service. I wasn't aware one could obtain gold prices there after COMEX closes.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:56 - ID#426220)
"carpe diem"
Tim: We obviously do not know each other, but I believe we are on the same wave-length this evening. May I suggest - just for the heck of it - please make a PRINT of our thought exchange tonight. It may prove prophetic...9 December 1997.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 19:56 - ID#287367)
I do see that Feb Gold is up $1.40 at $286 and change at DBC's site-

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:01 - ID#284255)
Watch the bottom line!!!
Japan Oct foreign bond buying 1.932 trln yen
TOKYO, Dec 10 ( Reuters ) - Net purchases of foreign bonds by Japanese investors totalled 1.932 trillion yen in October after net sales of 975.8 billion yen a month earlier, the Ministry of Finance ( MOF ) said on Wednesday.

Tight U.S. labor raises yellow flags - Fed sources

TABLE-Japan Oct current account surplus
TOKYO, Dec 10 ( Reuters ) - The surplus in Japan's current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, rose 220.2 percent in October from a year earlier to 1.08 trillion yen, the Finance Ministry said on Wednesday.
The surplus in merchandise trade alone rose 96.8 percent in October from the same month a year earlier to 1.28 trillion yen.

Stocks drop on disappointing earnings
The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index plunged 30.97 points, or 1.8 percent, to 1,620.57.
Wall Street feared a potential flurry of earnings shortfalls after the news of weak profits from Oracle and Hilton.
``People are worried that there are a lot more earnings disappointments coming from companies with exposure in Asia,''
``That is a big wildcard for the equities market because we really need more data to know how deep the slide will get,''

Derivatives fight may hurt credibility--FASB chief
``For the global capital markets to be efficient and effective, a single set of high quality financial reporting standards determined in an independent, full due-process environment must be in place. Investors will demand this result,'
His comments come as leading banks, corporations and key banking regulators have opposed the accounting board's pending derivatives accounting rules, which would require firms to record in their balance sheets fluctuations in the value of derivatives holdings.

Greenspan worried about stock prices -- again
WASHINGTON, Dec 9 ( Reuters ) - The last time the U.S. stock market was near current levels, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan felt compelled to warn investors that the market's gains were unsustainable. It's time to listen up again, some experts say.
``Asset price deflation is the really virulent problem that we should all be concerned about,'' he told the Economic Club of New York. ``It is exceptionally difficult to get asset deflation without first getting significant asset inflation.''
``The Fed is worried about it,'' said James Annable, chief economist at First National Bank of Chicago. ``They don't think the forecast for profit growth supports these levels.''
``My suspicion is that the stock market has not really factored in the likely squeeze on corporate earnings next year,'' said Joel Prakken of consulting firm Macroeconomic Advisers in St. Louis. ``You've got all the makings of a margin squeeze next year.''
However, few observers believe that the Fed will use the interest rate lever to send a message to investors that their stock valuations have grown out of line and that it's time for a reality check.
Higher rates would raise investment costs and dampen consumer spending, keeping a lid on corporate earnings. But they would also unnerve already jittery investors and most likely prompt steep losses in markets around the world.
Had it not been for the crisis in Asia that roiled global markets, the Fed would have raised rates at its last policy-setting meeting on Nov. 12, analysts say. A majority agrees that it will not sway from that position when the Federal Open Market Committee next meets on Dec. 16.
The overnight federal funds rate, the standard for interest rates throughout the economy, was last raised by a quarter point to 5.50 percent in March in a bid to head off inflationary pressures.
``A tightening in December would come as a big shock in a market that is totally unprepared for it,'' said Prakken. ``The Fed would not tighten for the sole and explicit purpose of deflating stock values.''

"We've said they face market saturation,"

Oracle stock fell $9.44 to $22.94 on volume of 171.8 million shares, a record for a single stock on Nasdaq. The stock touched $22.375 during the session, a two-year low.

Wall Street watches Oracle's stock closely because its databases serve as a foundation for millions of dollars of other business management software. Weak sales by Oracle could mean a broad segment of the software industry is in trouble, analysts said.

That suggests Oracle's list of potential customers is thinning, analysts said. The company is already the biggest vendor in the $5 billion database software business.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:05 - ID#374302)
Printout complete and archived. As Gordon Gecko said to Bud Fox, "Astonish me" !!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:12 - ID#24095)
@ gold quotes
Crystal Ball...When you bring up the delayed quotes ( 30 minutes ) on your your will then get a read out of last quote...

last bid...last asked..etc. Sometimes ( it may be a flaw in their system )

you get updated information..NOT the delayed info you see on the screen

It's alot of trial and error..I noticed last night when gold was dropping that the second screen was giving me different data and in fact that data was the one I would see about one-half hour later.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:14 - ID#287367)
@ 
Sehr Geehrter Herrn er-Lasting Downtrend! I know how much you appreciate a good island reversal. Although we're not likely to see one in GCG8 ( although one never knows- we'd have to open $4 to $5 higher tomorrow ) ; it is very likely that we could see one in ABX and $XAU. We left a little gap between today's high ( 15 5/8 ) and yesterday's low ( 15 3/4 ) in ABX, so we'd only need to open higher by 3/8 to leave an island gap reversal. We also left a gap in $XAU above today's high ( 65.11 ) . Lord knows, gold is extremely oversold in just about every conceivable time frame ( hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly ) by RSI & stochastics. Momentum and MACD have not been confirming the new lows in POG ( price of gold ) . Morale amongst the Goldbug clan has rarely been so poor. And just imagine how high silver would be flying if not for the golden millstone around its neck! Always hold your comments in highest regard. Cheers!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:15 - ID#426220)
Tim: I do NOT confess my opinion in regard to the final decision of the OJ Trial. HOWEVER, I must point out that ALL THE PROSECUTING ADVOCATES, as well as ALL THE DEFENDING ATTORNEYS have enriched themselves obscenely since the trial. Is there a morale here... I don't really know. But one must admit it was indeed lucrative for all the banisters. I am NOT implying that they are not due their reward for all their work and considerable knowledge, but rather they could have done it PRO BONO, and still become as rich.


(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:18 - ID#284255)
Watch the bottom line!!!
Japan profit taking again down -231

FUND VIEW - Dreyfus limits Asian exposure
``We doubt very much that this is just a bump in the road for Asian markets,'' Chapman told a news conference. ``It might be a while before we enter those markets in a sizeable way.''

Signs at the top: Roll out those derivatives.
PHLX to start 10 new equity options this week
PCX sets five new equity options listings
CBOE sets two new equity options listings

Russia's Kasyanov sees IMF dispersal in early '98
``In view of these measures, the IMF will resume dispersement in early 1998,''
The IMF suspended a $700 million tranche of Russia's Extended Fund Facility in October because of the country's poor tax collection
----Sounds like a poor Xmas for the many unpaid Russian workers.-----

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:20 - ID#287367)
Thanks for the tip, mate! Keep buying the physical. It's on sale ( 25% off ) right now, but I can't guarantee how long these bargain prices will last! ;- )

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:24 - ID#426220)
DINES LATEST ON GOLD (December 10, 1997)
Internationally acclaimed newsletter editor, James Dines, shares his LATEST ON GOLD. Additionally, he calls attention to two of his favorite precious metals stocks: Agnico-Eagle and Stillwater Mining - both a hot-wired to their charts, just CLICK the name. It is also obvious analyst Dines cottons to silver:

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:25 - ID#287367)
I believe you mean "B a R R i s t e r s" - counsel admitted to plead at the bar and undertake the public trial of causes in an English superior court. A bannister is something that gave you a splinter in your ass when you slid down it as a child. No offense. Couldn't resist. ;- )

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:28 - ID#287367)
Greed, for want of a better word, is good. And I am greedy for all the GOLD I can get!!! ;- )

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:30 - ID#432148)
Quotes --- WDL and Crystal Ball
I too have been frustrated trying to get accurate and current gold quotes
at certain times. This site seems to be as good as any I have found:
and it is free ;- )

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:31 - ID#374302)
Its a shame it was the "barristers" and not the "banisters" that got rich. The defence team probably got rich off OJ first, then wrote their books for some more $$. The prosecutors had to write their books to get rich, I suppose. I haven't read any of them. Criminal litigation is not my bag.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:32 - ID#24095)
@ gold up
Fasten your seatbelts...February spot stop on the charts is 288..after's the stratosphere!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:32 - ID#426220)
roles reversed
Tim ( Vronsky ) Printout complete and archived. As Gordon Gecko said to Bud Fox, "Astonish me" !!

COMPADRE, pls do not be presumptous, methinks you have the roles REVERSED!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:33 - ID#374302)
Crystal Ball
Money never sleeps, pal. This is your wake-up call !!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:36 - ID#426220)
Its a shame it was the "barristers" and not the "banisters"
Tim, I am grateful for the typo correction - after 15 hours of work on the computer I get careless. Thank you

Mr. Smith
(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:37 - ID#348353)
Lawsuit?Somebody gonna sue the CB's?Add environmentalists to your list....
The Canadien miners just had their annual conference and while there are many exploration projects ready for launch everybody was abuzz with concern about the governments plans to pander to the ever strengthening environmental community. It seems the air kissers have convinced yet another government to arm their bureaucrats with regulatory ammo. Not only are they going to begin work on a set of retributional environmental regulations, they will also be closing off vast tracks of country to national parkland! Sound familiar? Today the environmental community was upset at something or another about the atmosphere or something. I bet they are smiling at these low gold prices, probably while they are making bullion purchases, knowing that a large percentage of the mineral enterprises that are quickly becoming uneconomic will be shutting down soon. Why they can have their cake and eat it to.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:37 - ID#374302)
I've astonished myself with my loquacity tonight. I think that's all the astonishing I'm going to do for a while. Must go for now - BBL.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:41 - ID#426220)
TIM: "Criminal litigation is not my bag." That's irrevelevant!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:48 - ID#284255)
Capitulation in Korea
Korea slipping into a sell-off?
Up 2.7% earlier - now down 0.63% and falling
Lots of red in the East.

Avid chatter:
They talk more about gold than spoos ( :O}}}}}}}}}}}}}
I have to leave for a while but could you run that gold stuff back to 1932 and see what figure would come out. I think that when Rosy-v called in the gold and set 32 per oz as a fixed price. It was too high but the 20 price was too low. I am just curious as to what it should be compared to what it should have been in 32 when the US went off the gold standard.

thank you for the gold answer this morning. Based on that then I would expect a bottom in gold to be $169 - $170. That would take us back to $20.00 dollar gold. That is too low but markets usually get too low before they find a bottom.

If we are counting bears and bulls. I want to be counted a bear for the moment. I went short last Thursday. Thought we would top out Thursday missed it one day so far. Also, I have a few ( out of the money ) puts from a week ago ( pulled that trigger too soon. ) . This is a post from last Wednesday. We do not have good confirmations that this is a position to get married to but the girl is looking better......The following is last Wednesday's post and opinion ...."I know you have all been confused with the market lately ........ but finally it has become clear as to exactly what is happening........ I know you are relieved ...... This is where we have been and where we are going ....... First of all we are in the final stages of the B wave of an A-B-C correction. We presently are in the final stages of the "c" portion of that B wave. Today's action completed wave "4 " of the larger wave 3 of the "c". Tomorrow we will complete the 5 of wave 3 at approximately 8050 to 8064 DOW and begin the larger 4 back to the 7980 area for a completed wave 4 of B then by Thursday we should complete wave 5 and wave "c" and wave B. Wave 5 will probably look like a failure as it should top out in the 8064- 8070 range. Then we shall all go on a Bear Hunt for a few weeks to test, first the 7350 area and then the 7000 area and then probably something lower. I do hope this has been specific enough. It is the best I could do without help of any respectable trading system ..... No one accepts any responsibility should this information be incorrect; however we shall gladly take all the praise and accolades accorded should we have nailed it" ..............wave 5 topped Friday not Thursday at 8165 not 8070 as I first thought it would. FYI any move above 8125 will cancel this opinion. GggRrrrr OooooooooWwww ...eelll. .......Did I do that right? .....But this bear will grow horns very quickly if recent highs are taken out.

you are welcome if you are right that is very deflationary, welcome to the next depression

i have followed your gold posts with interest. gold of course has as few friends now as stocks and bonds have enemies. it is quite universally regarded as beneath investment contempt. finished, done, worthless, laughable. the daily 14 bar rsi is now at about 15. the long term cycles, which i won't get into, are in a bottoming time frame. this is imho not the time to get bearish on gold. if you are short from above $360 you may wish to remain so and see how the first rally goes, but i would not be looking to initiate shorts at an rsi of 15 after a 17 year bear market.

I am not saying short gold. If fact it may be a good buy for a bounce, but I do believe the BOTTOM is 180 or under. Using mtaylors kind information from this morning I calculated 169 as a very interesting bottom that fit nicely into my under 180 prognostication. MHO or course

regarding the metals, if gold and plat. can find a little bottom in here , I think you could see silver really fly.

well i wish you luck in your quest to buy gold at 180 or lower. if you are serious about wanting to own some i would recommend monthly dollar cost averaging in the actual metal and taking delivery thereof. the short interest in futures, exchange options, otc options, forward sale/gold loans and other derivatives is so great that if a squeeze can ever get started, gold will move up $50 to $100 per day for weeks, and with locked limits you will be unable to buy.

: yep, silver leads gold and gold leads prices and interest rates....

agree with you concerning gold. although the ultimate bottom may not be in yet, any bounce here could take it back to 350 without any trouble.

as 'speak no evil', agree with 'see no evil' and 'hear no evil' -- gold has the potential to pop the weasel on the up

in 1971 I quit my job with IBM and started a Gold brokerage firm selling gold coins and silver. I did that for a decade. I closed the company in early spring of 83 because I believed that we were in for a long bear market in gold. I believe we will experience a period of deflation before we see a reinflation. During this deflation area of time, gold may well do its final swan song. I will definitely be a buyer again. I feel comfortable with silver at these levels. Although it too can do some dipping.

we have had a period of disinflation in the US and deflation in many other places already for 17 years. this is why stocks and bonds have risen and gold declined. outright deflation with two or more quarters of declning prices is not prefaced by slowly declining interest rates such as we have had. outright deflation is prefaced by a spike in interest rates. i do not expect you to accept this, but in all humility the period of benign disinflation and the corporate goldilocks world is drawing to an end, and inflation is what's coming back, NOT deflation.

and I thought all along the bull held five Aces ... or at least thst's how I interpret the Oracle

is it true that Oracle leads the market by three days? %- )

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:49 - ID#26669)
Crystal Ball re 20:14 post...Island reversal?
Given the two alternatives for ABX that this is or isn't an island reversal shaping up what would be your strategy for buying into the stock at this point? If this isn't a reversal how low will it go? I could really use some if they start paying us to take it!! %^ )

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:50 - ID#31868)
sharefin your 20:01
The world is falling apart financially and yet there are still the voices of "let's wait and see." It is amazing to me. When this horror show starts washing over the US it is not going to be pretty. ORACLE was nothing more than a spark in this bonfire of the financial markets. In no time at all $9,000,000,000 will be a drop in the bucket. And of course, each puppet was quite sure today to inform the viewer or listener that it was only a "paper" loss.

People keep thinking they are going to wake up and all will be well. Soon this will not be the case. The US President called Asia a glitch, the media and Wall St. called it the Asian Contagion.

Cute little terms which do not reflect the true nature of the deflationary plague that is engulfing the globe.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:50 - ID#341214)
Tomorrow, at the stroke of 8:20 est go to the quote com screen and put it in weekly mode. Tell me what you see.


(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:55 - ID#411259)
..... ?!?!? .....

Aurator & Cmax

I should have known better than to wade into something I know very little about. Methinks you guys took my contribution in a more serious vien than was intended. The capsizing silliness is from a book called :"The HAB Theory". Great book, I've been looking for a copy for several years but it is probably long since out of print. Sorry Cmax for reading more into your post than was truly there.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:57 - ID#348129)
@Taken from USA Today - "At $250 an ounce,90% of mines wouldn't be covering the cost of mining gold"
With gold below $290 an ounce, nearly half of South Africa's mines are working at a loss. At $250 an ounce, 90% of mines wouldn't be covering the cost of mining gold, the South African Chamber of Mines says.

And if bullion continues to fall toward $250 an ounce, 100,000 miners - of a total 300,000 - could be laid off, according to Kgalema Mothanthe, general secretary of the National Union of Mineworkers.

Some bulls remain

But amid all the dire predictions, there are optimistic investors who say the price of gold will bounce back - though it might take awhile. James Turk, who runs the Midas Fund, says gold could get a boost from any number of sources. Much-talked-about wage inflation could surface in the USA. The financial crisis in Asia could worsen. Worries about the European Union shying away from gold could prove false.

"Gold has a 2,500-year history," Turk says. "We can't be so presumptuous to think that monetary history will end in our lifetime. Things do move in cycles. When everybody is bearish - which is the case at the moment - it's typically the end of the cycle."

(Tue Dec 09 1997 20:59 - ID#348129)
@Gold Bottom
RJ: Where do you see the bottom for Gold ???

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:00 - ID#24095)
@ morning plans
FundaMEDAList..I would dearly like to...however, at that time I will be in front of the classroom talking about the WAR of 1812 and the Battle of New Orleans.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:02 - ID#401183)



GOLD $1,000+ AN OUNCE!



(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:07 - ID#287277)
Let's pretend, for a moment, that gold is Money
and see how some currencies rank, with regards to their worth
in gold...
I found this suruprising...
Sorted by value/ounce of gold, NY, 12/8/97--least to most

ITL, Italy...........0.000001990
JPY, Japan...........0.000025553
BEF, Belgium.........0.000094400

CNY, China............ 0.0004200
MXP, Mexico............0.0004496
FRF, France............0.0005815

NLG, Netherlands.......0.0017270
DEM, Germany...........0.0019470
NZD, New Zealand.......0.0020830
AUD, Australia.........0.0023350
CHF, Switzerland.......0.0023960
CAD, Canada............0.0024462

BRR, Brazil............0.0031294
USD, USA...............0.0034782
ARP, Argentina.........0.0034807

XDR, SDR.......... ....0.0046920

GBP, Great Britain.....0.0057304

C.V. Compton Shaw
(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:09 - ID#342115)
Bearish bonds
The short term trend for bonds is bearish. The long term trend for bonds remains bullish. Gold, the XAU and the CRB are extremely oversold the implication being that no further short positions should be taken in the same and the current long positions in the same should be retained. There is no clear direction for the major market indicies. The dollar is extremely over bought the implication being that long positions in the same should be sold while short positions in the same should be held.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:14 - ID#39845)
profit at all cost
I am an environmentalist Mr. Smith and I thought we were doing you a favour. Less ground to mine less gold to come out of ground. You are
running the profit at any cost line. If we dont do anything now we
are all going to hell in a hand-basket with or without gold. Its taken
man 100years to phuck the earth over big time. Why dont you stop towing
the line for companies that dont even pay a fair share of tax and start
thinking more independently.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:14 - ID#31868)
SDRer 21:07
Very interesting, indeed.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:15 - ID#402251)
Poetic Justice
The bankers all know,just what they have done,

It's in their " interest ",if you'll excuse the pun.

They've loaned and sold,saying to hell with everyone,

That barbourous relic,they must overcome.

But as they issue,gold's next paper loan,

Thoughts of Santa and New Years are entering the home.

Is it wise to continue,when they've clearly won,

To loose all those profits, not relax in the Sun.

Let up on old yeller,for court action is threatened,

By investors and scholars and Veronski were bettin.

Time to cover their asses,cause the goldbugs in masses,

See the house of cards,through the internet and classes.

It's all here for safe keeping,through the losses and weeping,

Testimonials of last gaspers who say, " SUE THE BASTARDS ".

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:16 - ID#24095)
@ spot gold
According to gold..287.0 bid...287.7 asked...
that would be a huge move!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:22 - ID#267276)
Steven Leeb
A professor I believe has made some good calls in the past. As far as inflation, my 84 yr young mother got her health insurance bill from AARP today up $328 yr. I see inflation all over sometimes price stays the same but quantity and quality drop. I have been out Christmas shopping with my wife and the stores are loaded with "crap" and at high prices and fools are buying this stuff with credit cards.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:24 - ID#295111)
ABX traded 4.7 Million shares on New York. The average volume is around 1.7 shares per day. ABX has been shorted 12 Million shares for about 6 months now. I have yet to see the data, but short covering may be taking place. It could also be tax loss selling. If few investors take out a short position in January, then, in my opinion....GOLD HAS FINALLY HIT BOTTOM, with huge gains expected at the end of the 1st quarter.

Also, PDG traded heavily, 2.1 Million shares when the average volume is 800 thousand per day.

Lastly, Moneyline said analysts do not expect gold to recover until Asian crisis over.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:24 - ID#287367)
G'day, mate! Thanks for sharing the Avid Chat- Fascinating! After 18 yrs of ( on average ) 2.5%/year inflation, POG is already at $173.00 in 1979 dollars!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:25 - ID#7568)

All the meltdowns in SE Asia have been met with similar meltdowns in the price of gold. Yesterdays blasting of the Korean Won precipitated yet another round of gold bashing. Tonight the Won is again down limit ( 10% ) but the contagion seems to be coming to an end. The indonesian rupiah which got slaughtered yesterday along with the won is actually up tonight albeit 1-2%. The fact that gold is going up in the face of more Korean meltdown is a good sign. I am amazed at the extent to which these currencies have been devalued but the end must surely be very near. In Korea and Indonesia we are down almost 50% from levels seens just six months back. The is a radical devaluation and probably way overdone. Look for some gigantic injections of liquidity from the powers that be in short order. Also, if the currencies turn on their own, the central banks will add fuel to the fire in an attempt to hammer any speculative shorts that remain. A rapid reversal, even if it is just for a day or two in SE Asia will likely take its toll on the US bond market.

The economic data flow is about to turn very friendly towards gold. The trade deficit numbers are going to be increasing at an alarming rate. This is likely to put pressure on the dollar, especially if the inflation numbers begin to show some pop. The markets are now certain that the Fed will not raise rates and see this as a good thing for the bond market. If the inflation and trade data start to go awry the very same confidence that exists with regard to the Fed keeping out of the market may work in reverse. This may lead to a virtuous ( for gold holders ) inflation cycle, where inflationary growth can not be met with tighter monetary policy for fear of crushing the fragile Asian markets. If the US stock market reacts badly to rising longterm rates and falling profit margins, the entire market mechanism may flip into a different mode. The pendulum will begin to swing back after a 17 year trek in one direction.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:31 - ID#401183)



(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:32 - ID#7568)
Crystal Ball:

The inflation rate over the last 18 years is probably nearer 4-5% than 2.5. This would get the constant dollar cost of gold somewhere near $125.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:38 - ID#215208)
D.A. - Sounds sweet to my ears! Where do you get intraday currency info? Thx.

Golden Boy
(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:38 - ID#430233)
Tantalus Rex
Do you think this is a good time to consider starting to buy ABX and average down if it continues to slide? How about buying a closed or open ended PM fund and do the same?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:39 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

The downwards compression is getting less and less,
is the END in sight?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:40 - ID#215208)
D.A. - Sounds sweet to my ears! Where do you get intraday currency info? Thx.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:40 - ID#215208)
D.A. - Sounds sweet to my ears! Where do you get intraday currency info? Thx.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:41 - ID#413109)
comments & replies
HOOSIER- You can't be dumb, if you found KITCO- In reply to
your Steven Leeb question, I've seen him many times on TV business
shows, and his predictions have been quite good. This future
development prediction of inflation and higher PM's, is pretty
much how most of us feel and goes along with common sense, as after
a prolonged period of little to no inflation, logic would indicate
a period of higher and higher inflation. Besides the mere size
of the world's debt should set off alarm bells in anyone's mind.

ALL- We should see a tunaround just about now, at least this is
what many here are also observing on their charts. I believe the
latest $30+ fall in NASDAQ is the beginning of a down move in the
indecies, since it was the NASDAQ that was the leader on the way
up, I believe it is logical to expect it to lead the markets down.
Besides many of my long term charts on the Dow companies are looking
kinda toppy here.
It may be a choppy ride, but either get on board or stay there!!

One other comment that I believe may be worthwhile. I have observe
that those that make money, in the long run, seem to be those with
patience to hold and hold and hold. The traders, unless they are
pros, and the percentages tell us that there are very few, usually
don't make out. Occasionally one is successful in a trade or two,
but by the time the tax people, get their share, there's not enough
left. It's like the gambling houses, they make theirs on the odds
and on people's anticipated behavior patterns. The winners usually
will keep trying to make more, and the losers are sure they can make
it back the next time. It seems to be a weakness in our specie, among
other weaknesses!?!?

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:42 - ID#287367)
Evenin' Georgie! Last I checked Feb '98 Gold was up $1.90 to $286.80, so I would expect ABX to gap up in the mornin'. An island reversal up stands as a roadblock to further downside, and sends the trend up for at least a few weeks. You can buy ABX stock "at the market" when trading opens or you can set a limit price. My preference is to put in a "market" order before 9:30am. Or you can buy the Jan calls with $15 strike price ( ABXAC ) or 17 1/2 strike price ( ABXAW ) for 6 weeks of rip-snortin' action! The ABXAC's closed ( I think ) around 1 3/4, and the ABXAW's closed at 3/8.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:42 - ID#283199)
Does anyone have the comex volumes for today . I can only access the estimated volume of 60,000 ounces ?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:43 - ID#177109)
D.A.: pleased to see you're still an orthodox inflationist after all the devastation and new gold deflation bullstuff. i agree that the fed is boxed in on rate adjustments just at the extreme of the pendulum's arc.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:44 - ID#22650)
Hoosier-Stephen Leeb
FYI Stephen Leeb wrote book with Rogr Conrad title "The Agile Investor". I believe we will, after this deflation possibly have massive inflation in this part of the world. His book states the case, although his section on Asian prosperity is already outdated.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:46 - ID#174103)
for jtaher
That's pretty much what I heard, and I've perused their web site. I'm going to buy some. Didn't realize the fund managers were ex-geologists. That's a plus! It's also mostly invested in juniors in the Western hemisphere.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:48 - ID#287367)
( Foolish me, believing the gubbmint numbers ) Thanks for settin' me straight! Just makes it look like an even better value. {:- ) }

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:51 - ID#427357)
SILVER LINING by The Astrological Investor

Analyst Mike Sheller asserts long-term speculators in bullion and mining stocks may be looking at the kind of opportunity right now that presents itself every several years in the heartbeat of the gold cycle. The last time he made a similar call, he was RIGHT ON THE MONEY in predicting the lows of Oil and Gas stocks in early 1994. Subsequently, hundreds of percent gains were made.

At this particular astrological moment, he says, We kind of feel the same way right now about gold and silver. He names his favorite stocks... which may rise to the stars ( pun intended ) :

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:53 - ID#287367)
Welcome to the asylum! I lived in Winchester, IN ( home of Silver Towne ) from 1991-93. Stephen Leeb? He's right about once every 12 hours. ;- )

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:53 - ID#7568)

I'm hangin' my hat on M3. If money supply is surging then inflation is not far behind. All the rest is bulls$%t.

We are about to increase the leverage in our long only commodity system for the new year. There's a lot of stuff just itchin to go up, and its starting from very low levels. 1998 is going to be a fun year.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:55 - ID#284255)
Mania's always end with a crash.
Crystal Ball
An interesting perspective to value gold in past $$$.
I can't guess where it is going at the moment.
But I feel that a crash soon is a possibilty.
Could be well advisable to wait till after this effect has taken place.
The end of mania's never start in a bear market, they end in a bear market.
Manias only ever end by finishing the bull run with a crash.
If this crash comes about there will be a lot of burnt paper assets,
That will have to be redeamed with physical assets.
Just as we saw a month ago in Asia.
When the US crashes, there will be a lot of selling going on.
Everyone is so leveraged that they will have to sell,
Anything and everything to pay for their losses.
Who lost what with ORCL yesterday.
Market cap down $10 billion.
Who would have been leveraged into ORCL.
MF's as well as market players.

Tolerant 1
Did you listen to Jack and Paul having it out on Nightly Business Report?
I reckon Jack was pretty good.
I was surprised they let him say what he did.
Soon I think, feel, reckon. Just a feelin.
I should go and dig up some of my Tsunami posts, that I posted prior to Oct 28th.

Golden Boy
(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:56 - ID#430233)
crystal ball
What do you make of the high in Feb has been lower each day since Nov 25
and it's high today hasn't reached yesterdays high? That looks like a declining triangle to me. Also you probably would expect a small bounce from the low of 283.3 don't you think?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:58 - ID#7568)

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:59 - ID#267276)
inflation ?
Everyday on CNBC
You see this ( x ) added liquidity The Fed is throwing money in everyday.
The textbook definition of inflation is a increase in currency.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:59 - ID#31868)
No, I missed it. I imagine it was rather festive eh.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 21:59 - ID#26793)
IMF says Japan close to solving its problems. Dollar weak on news.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:00 - ID#401460)
Money Every Where!
I just got back from a professional meeting, where the Citys Chief Building inspector announced that there will be no more walk through permits until things slow down or he can get more help. Our City has a 2+% unemployment rate, no one can find people to work in any phase of the construction industry. The Limited founder, Les Wexner, is building a new city in the suburb and a huge mall that will be one of the largest in the country. We are building $500+K homes like there is no tomorrow - many are over a Million. There appears to be no end to the money supply, builders just keep building.

I also got a call today from a Realtor who has a Client who wants to buy a house that has been on the market for months, it was $450K now $374K, and it has 4700sf. with a lot that is worth $125K; therefore $53/ sf - a steal. The buyer will most likely put another $150K into remodeling the home.

CD rates are going up, everyone is making tons of money, credit every where, mortgage rates are low, NIKEs are cheap, cars @ 2.9%, etc. All this and I think Lumber was limit down today. I ask you, inflation or deflation, it cant get any better. What a wonderful life.

Enjoy it now, it is about over.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:02 - ID#287367)
My brother, let us count our blessings. We have food, shelter, incomes, loved ones, and we have PMs, which will protect and succor us when the seven lean years hit. Gotta hit the hay. Work in the a.m., you know. ;- )

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:05 - ID#93232)
It seems more and more, friends and people I don't even know ask me the same question: "Studio.R, is this the now the time to buy gold?" And with my best impersonation of Rod Serling, I reply..."Yes."

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:07 - ID#26669)
Crystal re 21:42 post: See? It looks like gold's going down now that Hong Kong is open. So what if we're wrong about it being a bottom? That's the question, how to maximize the power of the dollar cost averaging strategy when you're down to your last few dollars. And forget options. I don't want to do the Vick Niederhoffer dive. If a smart guy like him could get eaten alive by the markets, just imagine what they'd do to a dummy like me!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:09 - ID#35767)
He is tough to find yet he is found and does not want to express himself openly at this time. GSC will RULe in philosophy, God bless this long suffering soul. And the rest of us neeed it too!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:11 - ID#267276)
High Rise
That $475k house selling for $375 will be selling for less in a decade. Baby Boomers with big eyes and big wallets or at least big credit, will suffer from the empty nest syndrom in about a decade. The two of them or maybe one will say to each other what are we doing living in this 4700sf house with big utility bills and a heavy tax. They will try to sell it along with all the other boomers and there wont be hardly any buyers. Maybe things will be so lousy that all the kids and their kids move back in. One should buy a house that fits a family and will also suit a couple well.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:13 - ID#287367)
@Golden Boy
Feb gold has been in a prolonged downtrend; that's why you see lower lows and lower highs. I suspect the golden spring has been compressed so tightly that it's going to blow up very soon in the faces of the buggers who've been pushing it down. A short term pop to $300 is inevitable, and $320 to $330 is probably in the cards within the next 13 weeks. We have to give EB a good entry point to reinstate his short positions. ;- )

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:13 - ID#26669)
Crystal re 21:42 post: See? It looks like gold's going down now that Hong Kong is open. So what if we're wrong about it being a bottom? That's the question, how to maximize the power of the dollar cost averaging strategy when you're down to your last few dollars. And forget options. I don't want to do the Vick Niederhoffer dive. If a smart guy like him could get eaten alive by the markets, just imagine what they'd do to a dummy like me!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:19 - ID#197328)
home now

Bart, you cost me yesterday. Was on long layover in Atlanta and suffering from Kitco withdrawal. HAD to go to Kinko's and rent one of their Pentiums to check up on the Kitco action. Was there way too long...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:21 - ID#267276)
going up
This months Elliot Wave predicts gold to rebound 30% soon.Thats about$375

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:26 - ID#287367)
Friend, I would suggest you put 30% of your remaining $$ to work buying "at the market" in the morning
Try using 30% of your gunpowder to buy ABX shares at the market at tomorrow's open. If ABX continues to slide lower, you can spend another 30% of your stash at $12.50 per share ( and you'll get proportionally more shares, *the beauty of dollar cost averaging* ) , and if ABX keeps going down, you can utilize your last 40% at $10.00 per share. If this bearish scenario comes to pass, your average cost per share will only be about $12.00 ( not too shabby ) ; but if ABX starts going up, you'll at least have a piece of the action before the train pulls out of the station.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:29 - ID#401460)
It's got to be the bottom! I have only 200 ABX and 500 NEM left to buy. I have been averageing in as Gold has gone down to the point where my portfolio looks like a Gold mutual fund or the XAU.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:29 - ID#287367)
Good luck. Really must catch some shut-eye. See ya tommorow! :- )

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:32 - ID#284255)
contageous Asia
Cramer on Asian Tech Trouble
We got our first taste of what Asia-Pacific weakness looks like last night during the mammoth, methodical and entirely sobering Oracle conference call. It's not very savory.
The Asian contagion has turned into the Bataan Death March. Orders that nobody thought would be canceled were. Business that was in the bag, fell out of the bag. Customers who had been counted in can't be counted on.
Impact Of Asian Market Mayhem On US Mutual Funds
PAUL KANGAS: With me now to talk about how the Asian market turmoil is affecting U.S. mutual fund money managers, is John C. Bogle, chairman of the Vanguard Group and welcome back to NIGHTLY



KANGAS: Well, we saw Oracle say that their earnings were disappointing largely because of the poor markets that they found in Asia. I guess we're getting a sampling of what's going

to happen to a lot of corporations. Do you really believe this is really going to have an extended negative impact on our stock market?

BOGLE: Yes. I think it's going to have an extended negative on a lot of international businesses, yes and that'll care over to our stock market, absolutely.

KANGAS: Do you think it'll be serious enough to cause the bull market to turn into a bit of a bear?

BOGLE: Well, there's not enough of our U.S. exports and stuff to really change the picture dramatically, I don't think, but there is, it is enough to change investors' attitudes and what's been holding stocks up I think to a large extent is a very great bullishness on the part of investors and anything that affects that will of course affect stock prices to say the least.

KANGAS: Well, now you said for some time, Jack, that you know, the dividend yield on stocks is awfully low. I think it's now about 1.58 percent...

BOGLE: Something like that.

KANGAS: ... and the P/E ratio at an historical high. Can this last much longer?

BOGLE: Well, we have a scenario which is in with P/E's and yields like that that calls for nirvana to come, a perfect economy in the world and I think we're seeing signs the economy in the world is not going to be perfect. It may be pretty good, but I'm not sure that'll sustain the market.

KANGAS: You don't sound like really a great bull at this stage.

BOGLE: Well, you know, I'm a kind of cautious guy and I'm not a great bull, but on the other hand, our motto at Vanguard is stay the course. I mean these markets are going to do a lot of swinging around from day to day. And it's awfully hard to guess them. And I've got the feeling that emotions play more of a part in destroying an investment program than economics does.

KANGAS: So, stay the course as you said.

BOGLE: Stay the course.

KANGAS: As a conservative investor, what would be your recommendation percentage wise of allocations between stocks, bonds and cash.

BOGLE: Well leaving aside stuff like age, and important things, age, wealth, position, risk tolerance. Usually you begin with something like 60 percent in stocks, may be 35 percent in bonds, and 5 percent cash reserve. Something like that, I think. And I wouldn't do much to alter that today, may

be shade it a few points on, if you're a little more aggressive in your timing. Shade it a little bit on the equity side.

KANGAS: Jack, we just have 30 seconds left. But, just like in the banking industry there's been a lot of consolidation in the mutual fund industry. Do you like the idea? Or do you think it's a negative?

BOGLE: I think it's a negative. This has gotten to be a big industry. Mutual fund industry now owns or is responsible for almost 33 percent, a third, of all U.S. stocks and to the extent they agglomerate and conglomerate, they've got bigger amounts of money to manage that going to be very hard to differentiate

yourself. But-

KANGAS: Well, how about consolidation to diversify, for instance, if you're not in an international markets and you wanted to consolidate another group that was? That would be all right?

BOGLE: That's fair enough. You can consolidate sort of across the various types of funds. And that probably makes sense for a lot of people.

KANGAS: Thanks very much for being with us, Jack.

BOGLE: Good to be with you Paul.

KANGAS: My guest, John C. Bogle, Chairman of the Vanguard Group.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:34 - ID#30116)

Lowest unemployment rate in twenty four years.

Inflation numbers are positive, not Negative numbers.

How much does that car cost?

Sure, gold is down. WAY DOWN, for ten weeks in a row now. If you look at the XAU on a weekly chart, it almost looks like a verticle drop. This is not a normal market. It is not a 'normal' bear market. It is something else. Inflation is not dead!

How can deflation be a problem when the Central Banks can create money out of nothing?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:37 - ID#284255)
Verge of collapse
Seoul 'on verge of collapse'
South Korea's financial markets took a fresh pummelling yesterday from the combination of a falling won, rising interest rates and exploding dollar demand among merchant banks and brokerages.

The won closed 10 per cent lower at 1,465.7 to the US dollar, held back from further falls by the daily trading limits.

Dealers said no one was selling dollars at any price.

The three-year benchmark corporate bond yield was quoted at about 25 per cent from Monday's 22.95 per cent, its highest level since January 1982.

"Thursday will be the most serious day as companies will not find any underwriters of their bonds even at 25 per cent in the primary market," said an official at the Korea Securities Dealers Association. "This means the debt market will be completely crippled." The stock market plunged 6.47 per cent, with dealers describing investors as unnerved and confused.

"This is crazy. We are about to face an unprecedented crisis," a Citibank dealer said. "The system is crumbling and the markets are now helpless. Without extraordinary steps by the government, we are heading towards a real collapse.

"First of all, the problems with merchant banks should be urgently solved."

The central bank made desperate efforts to secure more foreign currency reserves, allowing 23 foreign banks to raise their combined operating funds by US$1 billion to $2.1 billion.

Foreign banks would bring in $1 billion and swap it into won at the central bank, it said.

Currency dealers said the central bank's reserves were insufficient to defend the won despite the arrival of the first $5.5 billion tranche from the International Monetary Fund bailout fund.

The dealers described the financial system as in near paralysis, with merchant banks and some brokerages scrambling to secure funds at whatever rates.

At the crux of the problem is the merchant banks - almost blocked from borrowing funds in the call market on the one side, and commercial banks refusing to extend them funds on the other.

"Even some brokerage houses are at a critical point. They are selling stocks to raise funds," KEB Smith Barney analyst Lee Kook-bong said.

"They are preoccupied at avoiding going insolvent, regardless of how much loss they incur on the sales of stocks . . . I think the financial system is already crumbling."

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:41 - ID#284255)
Verge of collapse
KDB bond sale draws disbelief
State-owned Korea Development Bank ( KDB ) is planning to issue a bond, which has been described by many in the market as "madness".

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:47 - ID#30116)
Golden Boy
Golden Boy -- At this point it is futile to TRY and sell your gold stocks. Hopefully, the companies which you own a piece of, will not go belly up. The fickle nature of this gold market is such that it can and does turn on a pin head. By the time you see the move, it's getting late in the game.

The rate of descent is so fast, as to be mind boggling! Think of the Dow Jones Industrials losing 45% in less than two months! Whoops! Where did that 3600 points go? That's what we've been through.. Where will this end? I don't know. But the selling is becoming ridiculous! Look at NGC or GGO! What, they have no proven reserves anymore?

Please disregard this emotional blabbering. Just think about Oracle today. For every seller there was buyer. Who will be right, and who will be wrong?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:48 - ID#364147)
You sound skeptical ( grin thingy ) .....

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:48 - ID#432154)
Is gold now at a Bottom?
With the so called strength in the overnight market right now. Is the bottom finally here??? Looks like silver is finally breaking above $5.50 and $6.00 silver is around the corner. Any thoughts you folks?

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:49 - ID#401460)
Your right, and that's one reason they changed the one time 55 cap gains deduction - all of the baby boomers were going to try and sell these 5000sf homes and retire in the sun. Starting this year homes will start coming on the market that no one can afford. The monthly maintenance and utility cost is staggering.

Any "glitch" in the economy will send all of this into a tale spin. You can't pay the electric bill without a job.

I am worried that many projects are being collateralized with stock and investment portfolios.

Remember the banks have worked extremely hard to change all of their interest rates to be a variable rate that can reach 30%+ in most cases. Can you imagine the reaction of those who have used their credit cards to finance their purchases, watch their purchases drop by 30% while the interest rates on their cards goes up to 30%.
That's a 60% hit!

And remember that margin call is still out there for most US investors.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:51 - ID#30116)
John Disney__A
John Disney__A -- I think your 15:32 is a correct assessment, much posting, but little reading.........

(Tue Dec 09 1997 22:56 - ID#372344)
Winds of Change are Blowing, It has begun to RAIN, NOT long til the
Explosive Thunder of GOLD is heard.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 23:01 - ID#30116)
I was in a store this evening when I overheard ( you had to be deaf not to hear this guy! ) a customer bragging about all of the NEW credit cards that he just applied for and RECIEVED. He knew one of the clerks in the store, and they were chatting away. The clerks response was ( hang on to your hat folks ) , "What do you need all of those credit cards for? You have to pay them off eventually!" To which the response was, "I got my balance DOWN to a few hundred dollars... " And so it goes... What is money but a computer entry these days. So I'll ask the question again, "How can you have deflation when your money is created out of nothing?" :- ) )

(Tue Dec 09 1997 23:06 - ID#30116)
Speaking of money....
I owe, I owe, so off to sleep I must go..... So I can get up in the morning to earn some more of that worthless money, whatever it is.... :- ) )

I would post a weekly chart of the XAU, but that would upset Blonde, ( The chart goes steeply, DOWN. Ten weeks in a row... )

Good night Ted, and all..................

(Tue Dec 09 1997 23:10 - ID#364147)
@ Panda + Company
Nite Panda and all others 'out there'......

(Tue Dec 09 1997 23:11 - ID#238422)
@John Disney
My friend,

As I stated before, my logical analysis resulted in accepting
you as a very knowledgable person, so when you are saying that I didn't
buy ABX 16 Puts and ASA 20 Calls, you just confirmed this fact again.

But please, do not consider it to be some kind of disrespect to you
or your recommendations. The only reason that I did not buy is that
I am kind of tired of thinking about all this MARKET, I just want this market to leave me along for a while.

My hand is not able to pick up the phone and my lungs do not keep
enough air to let me talk to a brocker, partly because they are filled
with cigarette smoke...

I feel like a little duck sitting on the ice with no water around...

All I can do now is sit, drink ( you now my hobby ) and read messages, sometimes write messages also and occasionally go to work - I do need some money to survive what bad gyus did to my gold. I also like to shoot my 357 Magnum long-barreled stainless steel GP-100 ( by the way, with GOLD-plated trigger ) at paper targets and beer cans ( empty beer cans, of course, I am not crazy ) , thinking about those guys...

Talking to you is one of few things that I still enjoy...

Hope we'll be in touch from time to time...

Best regards to you...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 23:17 - ID#411259)
..... Feelin' mighty low .....

How low can gold go?

Lower than a mite on the hair on the wart on the fly on the lump on the head of the frog on the bump on the log at the base of the floor of the hole in the bottom of the sea - or somewhere thereabouts..............

(Tue Dec 09 1997 23:19 - ID#238422)
@John Disney

Corrections to my previous post:

1. brocker=broker
2. gyu =guy
3. now =know

Sorry, still under influence...

(Tue Dec 09 1997 23:20 - ID#401460)
A Real American!
Farrakhan and his entourage arrived at Baghdad's al-Rashid Hotel, stepping off a bus and onto a sidewalk painted with the words ``Down America.''

Don't you just love him.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 23:22 - ID#31868)

Steve - Perth
(Tue Dec 09 1997 23:24 - ID#284177)
Steves specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA


ASIA'S NEXT CASUALTY? Bad banks could clobber China

Whistling past the graveyard in Asia


Rupiah drops on fears for Soeharto

Rupiah now down 100% for the year

Korean Won down by 10%. Down 70% for year.

$A slide continues on Asian concerns

Business confidence drops due to Asian Crisis

Asian Crisis on track for foreign bank control


Clinton shifts strategy on nuclear war

Billion-dollar buyouts lead attack on bankruptcy

Korean Shipbuilding Group had 20 times debt to equity!

Fourth largest Korean ship builder collapses

Gold plunge keeps ratings agency S&P busy revising

Gold crash may hit $US250/oz

Silver tests ratio's mettle

Markets suspicious of Japanese intentions

Korean steel hits US & European production

S.Korea media knock U.S., Japan on IMF bailout

IMF has the tigers by the tail - or does it?

Trouble brewing in Indonesia?

The good, the bad and the ugly banks of Asia

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:

( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

Steve - Perth
(Tue Dec 09 1997 23:28 - ID#284177)
More than just a flesh wound
Korean is bleeding to death with the IMF prescription. The final cost will be a lot more DEAD economies. See the red ink flowing today!

(Tue Dec 09 1997 23:29 - ID#227238)
Readin' 'n 'ritin'.
John Disney: Just cruising back through the PM transactions, I happened upon your earlier lament. Without judgment as to its validity, rest assured that I read each of your offerings, in toto. Even on those occasions when the morning's first mango is not to your liking and the coffee may not be as robust as you might wish. ( grin thing )

Having been reduced to inveterate lurker these past months, it's become obvious that there is a solid core of contributors that should not be ignored. You are among them. I appreciate the collected efforts immensely. By all means, carry on in your inimitable fashion.

(Tue Dec 09 1997 23:44 - ID#249409)
update - "time to buy gold mutual funds?"
From Misc.Invest.Futures - re: time to buy gold mutual funds?
by Gary Smith ( trades for a living )

"In a previous post, I discussed the Barron's Gold Mining Index/gold bullion ratio. Last Thursday, the Gold Mining Index ( found in Barron's Market Laboratory section ) was 368.68 while the Handy & Harman spot bullion price was 287.40. This gives us a GMI/GB ratio of 1.28.

Jay Kaeppel wrote an article on this topic which was published in the July 1993 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine. Nelson Freeburg wrote a follow up on Kaeppel's article in the October 1994 issue of his newsletter, Formula Research. You can access Kaeppel's article by going to In reviewing Kaeppel's study, please note he did not eliminate repeat signals that occurred within three month periods. Had he done so, you would find that the GMI/GB ratio has been this low ( 1.28 ) on only three occassions since 1975. In all instances, gold shares as measured by the Gold Mining Index were 100% higher twelve months later.

Also, in reviewing the latest data from the CFTC, I noticed the small
speculators have finally thrown in the towel and are heavily net short.
The commercials are heavily net long.

So should one therefore conclude gold futures and gold funds are a
screaming buy? Here are some things to consider. On the three occassions
the GMI/GB ratio dipped to its present level at 1.28, it subsequently went
lower - one time to a tad below 1.00. Also, an indicator that has only
given three major buy signals in over 20 years hardly seems statistically
valid because of the small sample size.

Secondly, the configuration of the Commitments of Traders Report for silver is downright scary. If the numbers are correct, the small specs are net long in numbers I have never seen before. A shakeout in silver could carry over to gold.

Lastly, but most importantly, since this indicator gave its last buy
signal, ( mid 1986 ) there have been major changes not only in the
demographics of traders and investors but global economies as well. The
latter would include the temporary death of inflation. Perhaps this
indicator is just another junkyard dog like all those stock market
indicators that have proved worthless during the greatest bull market of
anyone's lifetime.

For myself, I'm much too disciplined to be picking bottoms in a market that seems to be in a decade long downtrend. Except under certain conditions, I believe the only way to accumulate wealth is to trade the trend. Then again, one of those "certain conditions" may soon be unfolding in gold.
What is it? Something I think I will keep to myself. If too many traders try to exploit the same pattern, they all end up losing.

Gary Smith"