Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Dec 10 1997 00:00 - ID#26669)
HighRise re 22:29 post:
Same here. But I'm only using my taxable account so I'm washing as it goes down. I figure Uncle Sugar can share my losses! He'll surely share the gains next year!

Gusto Oro
(Wed Dec 10 1997 00:04 - ID#377235)
So where's all this silver that's supposed to be shook out--in your back pocket?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 00:11 - ID#227238)
Demonitization followed by Demonization???
Karlito 99: Since we are now in a brave new era where no major currency is convertible to gold, demonitization is an accomplished fact. By common fiat. That ignores however common reality. Such things are never accomplished by executive order in the absence of common assent by those in the bazaar. As these things go, the ink is barely dry on the orders. We are now witness to the vote. Yea or nay.

Given a full measure of infallibility on the part of our masters, paper would serve commerce just as nicely as gold. But alas, our masters are not and will never achieve greater perfection than the least among us. Realizing this, we can do little but continue to choose among monetary vehicles; that which can be gerrymandered and that which cannot.

The present system of fiat currencies is hardly awe inspiring. Especially when we consider that our masters have complete control of it .... and yet it still appears to be faltering. After only a decade or two of operation. A source of incalculable reassurance, no doubt.

If it be your choice to align yourself with the current system, few here will stand in your way. Or even try to talk you out it, for that matter.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 00:19 - ID#255284)
If life is irony, the Great Big 'Un must be an iron.


Me, Serious?

That's it, I'm moving to Irving, where does Mr Berlin live?


reno gambler
(Wed Dec 10 1997 00:24 - ID#41326)

(Wed Dec 10 1997 00:24 - ID#224149)
Ted-Gold next year low? $187.00 No! N0! No ! Away to see Toto and The Wizard Of Oz and George in the jungle.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 00:26 - ID#57232)
The US markets have survived the critical fall months: Inflation ahead?
All: Did you notice what D.A. is planning to do with his commodities trades? Go long! I think we have our answer is in the behavior of M3. I don't think M3 includes all of the dollars outside the US, and these are probably inflating even faster. If the dollar is inflated fast enough, imported deflation from S E Asia will not be enough to compensate ( still less than 40% of US GDP ) . The ElNino will eventually cause a surge in food prices. The US economy is still relatively strong, compared to other parts of the world, and crises elsewhere attract more foreign investors. We already know that AG is unwilling to raise interest rates because of the effect that would have on the rest of the world. So -- what is the inevitable outcome as long as the US markets hang together -- inflation!

Another way of looking at this is that our AG has opened the printing press floodgates, because he fears deflation more than inflation, and at least 1/3 of the world has "deflated" due to currency/debt collapse. So, if our markets are not ready to follow the downward trend of what now seems to be enveloping the rest of the world -- we will have inflation instead of deflation!

Lets just hope that the process is a controlled one! Gold stocks will do well as long as we avoid the turbulence -- which will eventually come.

We can ride the gold bug Tsunami -- but watch out for the beach!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 00:29 - ID#57232)
Irving Berlin? Logging off for the night- the better half has me by the ear.
Aurator: I'm drawing a blank on what songs he wrote. If you can tell me how to get in touch with him, I'd love to. Might require a temporal dislocation to do so!

reno gambler
(Wed Dec 10 1997 00:32 - ID#41326)

We should not forget that the odds of trading gold at fair market value for any currency or other assets in the world are much greater than the odds of doing the same with devalued paper currency. Many countries will find ths out as many have in the past.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 00:34 - ID#401460)
At one time I heard that the money supply did not include money that was in the stock market. I don't know if that was M2, all or none. Do you know?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 00:38 - ID#270236)
I believe M2 is currency plus demand deposits plus savings deposits and
small CD's.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 00:40 - ID#372344)
@ 5th Dimension
eef yoo ar sau bautheared weath mi spalleng pls downt rid mi post.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 00:43 - ID#257148)
The mail must get through

Phineas T Barnum says "The most amazing gold discovery in recent times has hit a mail-box near you."

Phineas, apparently means, "He with a brazen mouth."

(Wed Dec 10 1997 01:00 - ID#257148)
Let me just adjust my specs

thanks for the info! Am trying to tease the mumbo from the jumbo on this, but shall be called away..

"Jumbo" was, of course, PT Barnum's elephant, and gift to English, but, did you know & who cares ( G'day mate ) that Jumbo the elephant was hit by a train in Canada in 1885, where?

RJ, sounds worse fate than Syd Snail, whatever hapened to the world's favourite gastropod?


(Wed Dec 10 1997 01:02 - ID#227238)
Odds of this 'n that.
Reno Gambler: Well put. A Starbucks cappucino for 100 greenbacks or one silver dime. Pre 64.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 01:10 - ID#401460)
I would love to have a big tax problem when this is all over, that would mean one heck of a rise in Gold.

Besides Uncle Sam is going to need all of the help he can get. Tax receipts may be down for the next couple of years.

We just have to be patient. Events will take time to unfold. Every thing doesn't happen the same day, week, or month. Orders from Asia were cancelled today, corporate profits down tomorrow, layoffts later, etc.

What is projected to happen in "The Great Reckoning" is a surge in inflation as the US$ and Treasuries are brought into question.

"In failing, less stable societies, the government attempts to paper over insolvency with printing press money. Nominal interest rates rise, shortening the time horizon by reducing the future value of money to nothing. In an inflationary runoff, real income generally falls even further than in deflation. Most, if not all, debts are wiped away by inflation and the government is typically overthrown" pg. 372

"Against this background, nervous bond holders will be on guard against government attempts to monetize everyone's bad paper. The appearance of rapid debasement of the currency would send bonds tumbling. Gold would skyrocket" pgs. 444 & 445

"The Great Reckoning" Davidson & Rees-Mogg
revised & updated version 1993

Good Night All

(Wed Dec 10 1997 01:18 - ID#401460)
M2: That is what I thought. Now just think how much M2 has grown in th last 6 years, and this does not count the stock market.

I still believe that they intend to get rid of the extra money using a major decline in the market - the money will just disappear, the way it did in the S&L Scam. All of a sudden MSFT @ 70 instead of 140.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 01:49 - ID#41229)
Bottom ?
I would suggest that this is a small retracement from the free fall we have been witnessing. I have no information to back this up and must confess is just a gut feeling.

We will know when the bottom is in when consumer confidence is lost. For the most part everything is as usual in USA. When I hear from people on the street , " That asian thing, oh they have shored them up."

Until I've heard, " This strong dollar is going to cause the trade imbalance raise, and debt skyrocket" I know we have not reached the turning point.

Granted there are ripples on the financial waters to be seen. They just haven't formed into the gaint tidal waves that the blind masses notice.

There also hasn't been a wash out on the mining stock. ( collaspes, takeovers, buy outs )

I think the bottom will be in when major ( historical ) news breaks that effect finicial community, something that joe consumer understands.

IMH "novice" O

Also with all this mining stock being suggested I'm curious to know why some of the regulars have not displayed an interest in BRUSH CREEK MINING "BCMD" It goes up while gold still goes down!


Very interested in Chesbar, would like some sources of info: I can be reached @ Thanks in advanved!

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 10 1997 01:58 - ID#24140)
El sordo on the Hilltop
Crusty to Salty

Much Mumbo, little Jumbo

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 10 1997 01:59 - ID#24140)
El Sordo on the Hilltop
For Panda

As El Sordo said of US cigarettes - "much air, little


Reference "FWBT by EH"

For Panda

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 10 1997 02:02 - ID#24140)
Dont cry for me Ro Man NI Ya
For Oris

Shoot an empty beer can for me, dear Oris. Just as

well you did not make put/call play, as RSAs went sour

in a bad way very fast in the late afternoon. Some

people see "island reversal" for ABX. I see "devil's

island fakeout". If that is a reversal then I am the

King of Romania.

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 10 1997 02:04 - ID#24140)
Fruit for breakfast
For Earl

Thank you Mr Earl, You lifted my spirits. Speaking

of breakfast, mangos not really in yet. But large

sweet melons are fine here.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 02:11 - ID#257148)
Jumbo Mumbo

John Disney Right!

& from T E Lawrence

"Women for Duty, young boys for pleasure and melons for ecstacy."

damned pederast

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 10 1997 02:16 - ID#24140)
for Panda and I forgot who else

This is a tough one - lets take erpm - this is the

worst basket case of all - Mining journal lists costs

at 373 $/oz - YET - last quarter with gold at 300 they

covered all their costs excluding capex.

Freegolds costs are shown ta 346 - but many shaft are

lower cost and higher grades are available. I believe 280

for a year would simply cut their production in half

and eliminate capex.

Western deeps costs are shown as 310. I believe they

will continue flat out and still show profits at 280.

Ranfontein is an good example of what Im getting at

- their costs are shown at 380!! Yet with hedging

and gold at 300 in 3rd quarter they made a profit

AFTER capex.

Saint Helena - a mystery to me - MJ says 320 cost.

but making money at lower gold prices.

In summary, RSA mines have great flexibility that

is not appreciated nor understood. Their national

policy seems to be to avoid foreign takeover of

control of their gold mines. While North Americans

have been grossly understating their mining costs

presumably to maintain their bond rating, RSA mines

seem to have been OVERSTATING their costs to minimize

their attractiveness to foreign control. WHY PUleeze

did JCI spin off their best gold mines ( wes areas and

joel ) and sell them to anglos just prior to selling

out to Lonrho. I dont understood this one.

My comments above on fregold and deeps are academic

since they are to be folded into the vaal reef gold

arm of anglo american with additional economies.

Anglos has company debt of 790 million versus 500

million for ABX. The anglos group without the JCI

acquisition produces 7.8 mill oz versus 3 mill for

abx. Anglos also controls production of maybe half

the world's platinum, lots of manganese, coal.

Almost all of the "poor little south africa" info

that rattles around on this site is based on info

from south africa. Some people who post here WERE NOT

aware that SOUTH AFRICA was the world largest gold

producer. They thought the US was. In football terms,

the RSA team has hypnotized the linebackers, I think

they're gonna run the draw. And lets take a close look

at 4th quarter earning of RSA mines and NORTH AMERICAN

mines - ( most of which have had their bonds down graded ) .

I hate conspiracy theories. But anglos has clearly

benefitted big time from the fall in the gold price. They

have crushed the local unions. At the same time they

have eliminated JCI and taken their gold interests. They

via the Oppenheimer family must have MUCH better connections

into Europe and whatever is playing out in the gold market

than do their North American Competitors. I dont think they

are finished yet.

Apologies for length of post.

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 10 1997 02:23 - ID#24140)
oh mr spaceman - send me a dream
For Mr Spaceman

I dare not read the CONTENT of your posts for fear my earthling

brain would be too dazzled. I only look for spelling errors to try

to determine the origins of your space craft. And You are a


(Wed Dec 10 1997 02:24 - ID#402151)
get on board lil churldren

I just feel like something good is about to silver bulls, that is.

forget gold unless you want to pick up some cheap call options...yes the decline is over. Bonds have turned over and are going to crash and stocks will follow...the bulls have failed to push stocks to new highs...its called a head and shoulders top to folks who use conventional chart pattern descriptions...listen for the term--you heard it here first. Gold should benefit, No?

Back to rates at 6%, warehouse stocks lower each day...what are you waiting for?...BUY. Once we break the sideways pattern of the last three weeks the money will come rolling in for us call owners. I expect it to happen within days. Notice the three front months closed at the same price? As I mentioned two or three days ago, silver is about to do something I haven't ever seen...go into backwardation. From my limited knowledge, I believe this meansthat supplies are very short, whether from manipulation or otherwise. Buyers are willing to pay the carrying charge since they are worried that there won't be any or any this cheap six months from now.

Apartfrom the fundamentals, the chart pattern is a very bullish one. compare the silver pattern since July to a similar one for soybeans from aug-nov '87. We should top out in the shortterm at about 6.10 on the mar contract within a week or so if the pattern holds

(Wed Dec 10 1997 02:28 - ID#393224)
Washout time
If a big washout in the price of a share is an indicator of a turning point, then a couple of the biggest mining companies in Oz ( and the world ) have been hung out on the line. A couple of weeks ago it was WMC ( Western Mining Corporation ) -- now up nearly 20% from lows two weeks ago. Today it was MIM ( Mount Isa Mines ) . More than 15% down today on HUGE ( 32 million ) volume before closing off the days lows. Largest price drop and volume of the year. I watched the lines of shares going through. Many large sell orders ( institutions? ) plus lots of little chickenshorts bailing out. I got in a couple of cents off the days low. There were TWENTY SEVEN buy orders in front of me at the same price and I still got filled in a few minutes. If that isn't a difference of opinion on the future direction of a share.......I, of course, would like to believe that this was the final blow off.

Is gold finished going down??? I would feel a hellava lot better if it would open at 285...drift down to 280...gather speed all the way down to 250-260 range on MASSIVE volume and if someone had flipped a switch... start heading back up...gather pace... and close ABOVE 285. I would then be looking for 340+ within 3 days. This is only one of a million scenarios, but I kinda like it. I would be buying all the way down and then hocking the wife's jewellery to buy even more at the bottom. If there was no recovery I'd be drinking cheap wine in a daggy motel somewhere all on my lonesome. I would, however hook up my computer so I could talk to the rest of you guys in cheap motels around the world.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 02:38 - ID#257148)
No apologies,--- from you, the longer the better

and from  ? How long is it?

Nick@C JM said they've got Krands today, someone actually sold! As they attract GST ( @12.5% ) better option is bars


John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 10 1997 02:51 - ID#24140)
Ah aint gonna bend ovah and pick up no soap in no showah
For salty



(Wed Dec 10 1997 02:51 - ID#393224)
coin shortage
G'day Aurat ( c ) ious. Went in to a coin shop today to top up on sovereigns at these prices. Guy had a tonne of em last week. Would you believe some guy went in and bought a tonne of em yesterday. So I'm not the only one in Oz buying gold after all!! No GST here, mate ( yet ) . Dang--they already tax the gold miners to death. That would add insult to injury.

G'day John Disney--thanks for not mentioning the cricket. Only so much a bloke can take in one day.

Oris--cheer up, mate. You'll be able to tell your grandchildren that you owned gold before it became extinct!!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 02:54 - ID#22956)
It depends on the temperature...and that is rather personal, no? ;- ) unleash


go gold

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 10 1997 02:59 - ID#24140)
cricket what cricket?
for nick

now that you mentioned it ..... the battle of the hopeless batmen.

clearly a stuggle of the titans to determine who could bat WORSE.

Australia surpised us ALL. Up to that point I had found the

south Africans unbelieveable - particularly big mac who seemed to be in

a dream and Kallis the most ungainly batsman Ive ever seen.

And cheap motels aren't THAT bad.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:02 - ID#26144)
Maybe this is it
I have been lurking for a LONG time and learned much from all
the posters here... This is the first night in a long time that
Sydney hasn't been hard on gold, and now Hong Kong is moving it up quite strongly - could this be the turn around we've all been looking for???
Any comments?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:03 - ID#257148)
misconstruated- eh earl?
--- what are you talking about? I was talking about your Precious metal long position?


(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:05 - ID#393224)
G'day  gld br. Almost made yer 280 mate. Just a matter of time? Thought you'd be buying Korean won about now. It's almost down to zero!! Must be some upside in Asian currencies/markets, mate. Maybe good for a bounce??

(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:06 - ID#22956)
Nothing new. We have heard it before......several times......beating a dead horse....and the rider.......and the stable hand......and the trainer.....the girlfriends trainer.....the horses girlfriend..........the popcorn vendor........the ticket taker.........ugh......zzzzzzzzzz...........hmmmmmmmm....let's see......did I leave anyone out??!? ( Talking of the Head and Shoulders ) ...............yawn. ;-^ ) hear it last


(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:18 - ID#393224)
Silver bull market???????????????????????????????????
What is going to happen if the Indians start massively dumping silver at 5.50-6.00 to help pay for their diminishing currency. Sure not gonna sell their gold at these prices. The Indian silver jewellery may go into the melt at a much lower threshhold during tough times. Just a thought. I worry now that EVERYONE seems to think silver is goin' through the roof. That kind of talk makes me wanna short. Can't help bein' contrary. Only way I know to make a quid!!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:20 - ID#26144)
Hnag Seng - Down Gold UP!!!
H.S. down 461 points - gold up $2.55 ...

(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:25 - ID#257148)
contrary to ordinary Jerry Jeff
Nick@C know what ya mean, don't like to hear my thoughts too often either.

Thinking about getting a Krand on a chain for BJ.

I'm dreaming of a golden christmas


(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:32 - ID#393224)
Auracious' gold for BJ
Auracious--you traitor. I am the proud owner of the most beautiful gold coin in the entire world. It is a 1990 proof Kiwi Treaty of Waitangi?? 1/2 oz. It is absolutely stunning!!! Anything less for BJ would be traitoracious!!!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:35 - ID#22956)
Fine Gentlemen of the Down(gold) Under.....g'day!
Nick@C - you Sydney's had a chance to make my bet a cinch.....but you bought instead of sold. Now....this is the way to do it for the next round. SELL instead of BUY. Get it? ( got it says NickC ) Good? ( says  ) ........h M!! Now....chop, chop and get us a few Bitters ;- ) yum, yum.....

Aurator - Please accept my apologies.........but, damn! the water it is not only is deep too!

John D or NickC - What is a good SOLID mining stock that I can 'invest' some cash in ( soon not now but soon ) ? I hear many, many, many but I want something solid that will NOT fold. It can take a beating but not fold and it must have a good upside potential when this bull starts gettin pissed-off ( not up ) . Am I dreaming?? Is SCG solid? Anyone? LGB likes it and so do MANY others ( hey, maybe that's not too good ) . Point my nose, I can do my homework. I beleive I have some time....maybe plenty 'o time.



perhaps I'll just buy some Oracle, eh Panda?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:36 - ID#257148)
'umble servant
Nix@C Qu? Tiriti Waitangi? - shows how little I know - one smart roo, you.

more to learn


(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:42 - ID#284255)
Full forty feet into the blue empyrean
In grateful memory of Terry Alderman.

Ball flies
A long sweet curve
Toward the stand
A certain four
An arc of pure delight.

Fields man - however
Has that sweet arc in eye
Judges and assesses it
Measures the pace
The inclination
Direction and altitude
Estimates with brilliant intuition
The fall of ball
And, input perfected
Places with fleet foot
His hands to intercept;
Oh perfect judgment
Superb skill; that fleet foot;
That mind computing the moment!

Dear Lord,
Man and the Universe meet!
The exquisite moment

Ball, dreaming
In the mild ecstasy of flight
Is invested,
Rests docile, in the captors hands,

Fieldsman, assured
Of all certain skills
Tosses the ball
Full forty feet
Into the blue empyrean
Saying thus to all
Behold me Master of this ball.
And ball obedient returns.
Sweet skills.

Oh to be alive. To be here
Such sweet perfection!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:43 - ID#22956)
Nick the Can
I agree with you regarding silver. And so do others. The Irvine boy has also said he would drive it into the dirt at around 6.00. This market does have some good upside potential but I think it won't even make it to 6 bucks. It still has a big monkey on its back..........I'm talking GO ( LD ) -rilla sized monkey........ugh......ohmy. walk on silver eggshells

mightaswellbewalkinonthesun ( tomusic )

(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:45 - ID#284255)
Microsoft sucks - I know it!!!
A few months ago, I started being billed by MSN Networking, for services that I had never applied for.
They were deducting $9.90 a time, from my Visa account, anywhere up to three times a day, two or three times a week. These fees were for a service, I have never subscribed to. I had never given them my Visa number. Where they got my Visa number from, is still a mystery to me.
When I telephoned my bank, to inquire about this fraudulent use of my Visa card, they replied that I would have to shut down my Visa card and reapply for a new one, to have the deductions stopped.
Upon further inquiries with the bank, they stated that up to 1/3 of their customers, were complaining about the same deductions, being made to their Visa accounts.
I authorized my bank, to do a query on these periodic deductions.
In the 'Australian' newspaper, there have been numerous letters to the editor, regarding this matter.
Today, I received a telephone call from my bank, to say that they were going to shut down my Visa account, and start a new one for me.
The person I spoke to also stated that their bank would be proceeding with charges, against Microsoft, for fraudulent use of somebody else's Visa card, without authorized permission.
The person also stated, that quite a high percentage of their banks customers, were in the same position.
Have you had any similar charges and complained?
Is this how Microsoft conducts their business and garners its profits?
Where is Microsoft obtaining these Visa numbers from?
It seems that they have obtained thousands of unauthorized Visa numbers and are fraudulently using them.
How many other banks, and different plastic cards, are they also doing this to?
In how many other countries are the doing this?
For a company like Microsoft to undertake this style of fraudulent behavior, is amazing.
And the scale that they appear to be doing it on, tells a story in itself.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:46 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Nick C -- Don't be a contrarian 'till Monday on the silver. You'll miss out if you do. And even then, you'll want to see how it plays! Dangerous times to short silver. Also now a dangerous time to short gold. I see ALL the metals moving up from here. They need to prove differently, or fail targets to change my mind on that!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 03:55 - ID#393224)
Vino eyes
They did a study once on guys at a wine bar. When they came in and sat down they were given a survey form and asked to rate all the ladies in the bar. Some of them rated as total dogs ( excuse me ladies ) . They then proceeded to drink and make merry. Later on that evening, after many drinks, they were given the same survey again. Would you believe that every lady in the bar had increased on the beauty/desirability scale humongously!!!

When I sat down here tonight I poured myself a glass of wine and thought--"well maybe 250 bottom". By the second glass of wine I was thinking "275-280 will hold". Have just finished the third glass and poured the fourth. I would now like to proudly declare that the bottom in gold is IN!!!!!I repeat, THE BOTTOM IS IN!!! Dang if that dog hasn't gotten beautiful!!! One more glass and I'm going to find a minister who doesn't mind if I marry an inert metal!!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:00 - ID#22956)
It's time!!!!!!
Let us see what the blessed Blokes will do with the metal. C'mon Limes!!! Yahoooo!! awaaaaaaaaay!


eldo - you think 281.50 is a bottom??!? hmmmmmm... You don't think that as it approached the sacred 281.20 line it didn't 'sniff' around to see if it wanted to make a new home.....or to take a crap on it?? Remember, this is gold we are talking about. 281.20.....281.20......281.20.......................280 ( wink.d.a. ) .........270 ( hello ) ..............250 ( ugh ) ...........hmmmmmmmm........go gold.

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:06 - ID#24140)
Technicolour dreaming on a summers day
All the leaves were GOLD ??

Golden Dreams ----

My own major up trend line for platinum looks like

a low of about 362 is in the cards. Using Disney's

universal constants of 0.74 and 0.69 for the platinum

gold ratios at which I anticipate 1st and 2nd

resistances for gold - I anticipate a bounce and

maybe a bottom at 0.74 * 362= 268 and an absolute

bottom at 0.69*362 = 250 $$$$$.

Should silver continue up to say 5.75, that could

give you a au/ag ratio of 250/5.75 or 43/44 after

breaking long term support at 57.5. I would prefer

a ratio of 38.5 which would be a third fibonacci

of that prior support - maybe accomodate by silver to


Another BAD DREAM -

Maybe somebody somewhere just realized that the world

is never ever gonna be able to pay even the interest on

its debt. This guy thinks that means we are broke and could

not buy gold if we wanted to - we can only sell it.

please shut that idiot up.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:15 - ID#257148)
What's in YOUR briefs?? yuk yuk
as long as you're refusing briefs, can I also assume you're declining mine of yesterday. it was the invitation to post a phreak for an overseas person to access the US 0800 system-- tolerant1 gave e-gold's USA number. Was I seeking a conspiracy to commit wire fraud on the net? Where does the fraud occure. I regret that our estemed colleagues, Monseur Vronsky, does not understand conflict of laws, legal standing nor grounds of plaint.

Vronsky, amigo, this world does not have the regulation that you expect, We are actually dealing with a frontier. A human frontier. This frontier is a combination of the computer/infornation revolution and the upgrowth of the derivatives markets. Velocity. Everything is velocity.
There are no rules on the frontier. There never have been. On the frontier only the survivors survive. ( Darwi's fallacy ) The survivors are not looking for justice, they are watching their tails. Moving, moving, no time for blame

There are no sherriffs, No Wyatt Earls, No great leaders, this is the human race. The answer is not in the law courts.


(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:20 - ID#173274)
@the scene
EB -- Funny how so many think that a trend can/will continue forever. How very foolish. I find that whenever a price meets and comes off a trend line, that a bounce as a minimum is due. Don't you? I really don't know what the ultimate low might be. I really don't care. Buy at the bottom of a drop and ride it up until it won't go anymore. Then we might talk about lower lows. Until then, it's a mute discussion in my book. Besides, I was looking for a short-term type reversal for either Tuesday or Wednesday. Beyond that, we'll just simply see what happens, I'm sure!

Also, be watching the crude and heating oil now. Should make a good risk/reward ratio here for a long position and fairly close in stop. That's the best kind. Kind of like gold at this time ( at least earlier in the day Tuesday ) .

(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:23 - ID#257148)
  
I need voice recognition cus nufing spelz rite


Got it?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:42 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Mar silver at 5.6 resistance. Now the game gets interesting! Just let it poke its head above that! Immediate 20-30 cent move in the offing!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:44 - ID#257148)
call that a sport? you got pads and helmets and you is woosses
sharefin a thing of beauty, your dad's poem today. I intuited there he had one about this noble sport.

and have you hear that Mick Jagger & ( ?? ) Don Bradman have formed a company to bring live cricket on the internet?


and then, there's rugby and gold. You gotta face it, 'merican friends. your football is for pansies.


(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:45 - ID#22956)
Tickling the LAST
Eldo - Point taken ;- ) . We will tickle the line once or twice before we PLOW ( and I mean PLOW ) through the Great Barrier 281.20. It is also flish to go against the trend. It will last......of course not forever.....pero claro que s! Let us make it our friend and continue to sell the rallies until our fingers feel the singe and we feel the cold air blow under our skirts......ooh ooh, aah aah! ssssssssss ( burn )



these 'banks' have not even begun to show their skirts.......ohmy

(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:49 - ID#257148)
velocity of language is increasing too
Eldo cool spello, mute=moot

some languish, english turned out to be

(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:50 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Looks like EBN died and all we have left is the local Kitco print on the numbers. Looking VERY NICE, indeed!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:51 - ID#22956)
now you done it.....




(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:54 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Aurator -- Yupper. In the 'end', it all becomes a 'moot' point.

Strad Master
(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:56 - ID#250297)
ALL: Haven't been able to post for about a week due to computer problems but now that I'm back I can't help commenting that silver is up 21 cents at this writing. ( 2 AM Los Angeles time ) It's going straight up! I wonder what'll happen when COMEX opens for business? Wowie Zowie!!! BTW, is it true that silver is approaching contango for the first time since the mid 70's? Best to y'all.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:56 - ID#26793)
Yahoo Virus
My morning newspaper has an Associated Press story saying that hackers broke into Yahoo last night at 10pm and planted a ransom note/virus that is timed to Christmas Day, 1998. Anyone who used Yahoo after that time is infected. They will only provide the antidote if Kevin Mitnick, a fellow hacker, is released from prison. Yahoo admits their security was breached but claims there is no virus.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 04:59 - ID#257148)
the cabin boy on the bridge of the Titanic --- *again*----
sharefin..ummm microsoft fraudulently screwing aussie residents out of hard earned $$ ? You gotta be kidding. You're not are you?

as i bolloxed on about before, it is the fraud at the top of the market that is the harbinger of the crash.

Everyone has been watching the cliff, and the flaming wave is gonna catch us amidships,


earl eye in the mourning.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 05:04 - ID#26793)
AP story on Yahoo virus

(Wed Dec 10 1997 05:04 - ID#173274)
@the scene
'Ain't' that silver just getting 'purty'! That gloss is a wee bit shinier this morning!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 05:08 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Silver now up 28 cents to 5.75. HAR!!! HI HO SILVER!

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 10 1997 05:13 - ID#24140)
Silver MUST carry - or else
An awful thought

Suppose Silver FAILS and hits the top of its trend channel

right about 5.75 and fall back to about 5.25- then rises to

6.0 say in another 3 months -

any idea what that would do to the gold mine index -

Some possibilities - Gold at 250$, plats at 365$

ASA $8.6

Vaal $1.5

ECO $0.75

ABX $5.0

All in 6 months time - shabby looking isnt it.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 05:20 - ID#257148)
another net hoax

well a story like that gives "sheeps guts" bad name and is a tad insensitive towards uuurr noo posta Haaaggisss


(Wed Dec 10 1997 05:22 - ID#173274)
@the scene
John D -- If 5.75 is ALL it can manage, especially with stocks declining as they are, then someone has a HUGE warehouse of the stuff about! You'll know it if it fails at this point. But I seriously doubt a failure is due yet.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 05:27 - ID#26793)
Haggis has a lot of guts ( said with a sheepish grin )

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 10 1997 05:39 - ID#287367)
( Courtesy of Reify )

A recent Scottish immigrant attends his first baseball game in his new
country and after a base hit he hears the fans roaring!
The next batter connects heavily with the ball and the Scotsman stands
up and roars with the crowd in his thick accent: "R-r-run ya bahstard,
r-r-run will ya!"
A third batter slams a hit and again the Scotsman, obviously pleased
with his knowledge of the game, screams "R-r-run ya bahstard, r-r-run will ya!" The next batter held his swing at three and two and as the ump
calls a walk the Scotsman stands up yelling "R-r-run ya bahstard,-r-run!"
All the surrounding fans giggle quietly and he sits down confused. A
friendly fan, sensing his embarassment whisper, "He doesn't have to run, he's got four balls."
After this explanation the Scotsman stands up in disbelief and screams,
"Walk with pr-r-ride man!"

(Wed Dec 10 1997 05:47 - ID#26793)
General gold and silver comment post NY close

(Wed Dec 10 1997 06:02 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio
Did the down-under crowd notice that the Dow/Gold Ratio touched a 100 year high yesterday at 28.64 ounces? It closed at 28.44. Today we have the silver/gold ratio below 50 for the first time in a long time. With stocks looking weak today, and gold looking strong, the ratio should drop in a way that produces a very spikey bottom looking chart.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 06:08 - ID#254284)
Silver Bullet

Silver, she be runnin now. No roar from the kitco stands? A phenominal surge so far.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 06:29 - ID#35767)
With Gold mines shutting down the silver shortage can only get worse. Kodak and Fuji are going to be panicking. The artificial suppression of gold also suppressed silver and gave the appearance of plentiful supply because of the terrible price action but such was not the case. The chickens are starting to come home.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 06:31 - ID#173274)
@the scene
EBN came back on line and does verify Kitco readings. Also shows wheat down 14.5 cents. Getting REAL close to a buy! The bad fundamentals with our commodity prices though is the strong dollar vs. commodity importing countries. They'll first import from relatively dollar weak countries. That'll tend to keep a bit of a lid on some of these prices. That would be good for the consumers but the food companies keep raising prices anyway.

Silver up 34 cents now. HI HO SILVER -- AWAY!!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 06:50 - ID#24095)
S&P down..opening
S&P Futures dropping like a this morning that Russian president Boris Yeltsin was taken to the report on his condition.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 06:53 - ID#30116)
John Disney__A
John Disney__A -- Thanks for the information. Off to work I go! Oh no!:- ) )

(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:21 - ID#333127)
Does anyone know how much silver ECO mines?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:26 - ID#173274)
@the scene
It'll be interesting to see what happens to silver after the Comex open, when all those buy stops get executed and all those shorts get covered/reversed! Interesting day ahead!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:29 - ID#35767)
Wake the hell up.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:32 - ID#258427)
@To the Races
Gentlemen ... START YOUR ENGINES...Wake up TED!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:37 - ID#258427)
Fuel to the Fire
From CNN:

Russian President Boris Yeltsin hospitalized
More details soon

(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:40 - ID#57232)
Silver rally!
sharefin -- are you up! Somethings happened! US markets will open down today.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:40 - ID#258427)
Asia continues to inflict pain
SEOUL ( Reuters ) -- South Korea's
financial crisis deepened on
Wednesday as the government
closed more merchant banks, and
the country's battered markets
dismissed government stabilization

For average Koreans, especially those with money in the shut
merchant banks, the bitterly cold day was filled with despair.

One older woman standing outside a closed merchant bank in
central Seoul ringed by riot police said to anyone who would listen:
"Why won't they give me my money. It's all I have."

It was unclear when she would be able to withdraw her money,
although the government has guaranteed all deposits with financial

The Finance Ministry said before markets opened it had
suspended the business operations of five more merchant banks
until January 31.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:46 - ID#287207)
Ho Ho Ho
Boris has a "cold".

(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:47 - ID#427357)

SILVER LINING by The Astrological Investor

Analyst Mike Sheller asserts long-term speculators in bullion and mining stocks may be looking at the kind of opportunity right now that presents itself every several years in the heartbeat of the gold cycle. The last time he made a similar call, he was RIGHT ON THE MONEY in predicting the lows of Oil and Gas stocks in early 1994. Subsequently, hundreds of percent gains were made.

At this particular astrological moment, he says, We kind of feel the same way right now about gold and silver. He names his favorite stocks... which may rise to the stars ( pun intended ) :

(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:51 - ID#333131)
@home and staying there
Donald or JTF, Do you have the open interest and volume for comex gold yesterday? We're having a winter storm and no papers. Donald, by the way the 28.64 was at gold= 282.05, just for the record. It may have been slightly higher at some point.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:52 - ID#36965)
The action this morning has got the Loan Ranger spooked. Those silver bullets look to be costing him a little more today. Maybe he'll have to switch to golden bullets. Eh Kemo Sabi?!

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:53 - ID#287367)
Silver UP 38 cents at $5.85 Yeeee Hah! COMEX ain't even open yet!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:54 - ID#427357)
Silver Stocks to the MOON.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:56 - ID#287367)
A three-legged dog walks into a saloon in the Old West. He sidles up to
the bar and announces: "I'm looking for the man who shot my paw. "

There was a man who entered a local paper's pun contest. He sent in
ten different puns, in the hope that at least one of the puns would win.
Unfortunately, no pun in ten did.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 07:57 - ID#26793)
Silver short sellers are going to need the Loan Arranger.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:01 - ID#258427)
What is an url for comex ??

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:07 - ID#427357)

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:09 - ID#258427)

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:10 - ID#427357)
Rothschilds, Soros & Mike Sheller CANNOT BE WRONG
We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the Poor Mans Gold -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year Goldbugs Weekly Comment.

In Cormiers report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! -posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Lets capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%
Silver Standard ( SSO ) ...............UP 57%
International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%
First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) ..........UP 86%
United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%
Clifton Mining ( CFB ) ................Down 4%

Thats an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report Silver stocks, there ain't too many! - the current daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:10 - ID#364147)

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:11 - ID#93232)
To all subjects of the sovreign state of Cyberia:

GOLDBURG ( Rooters )

By Ministerial Privilege granted unto me ( usurped ) I hereby decree:

All subjects will immediately leave their computer posts.

They will then proceed to their bar and belt ( in one gulp ) a shot of their perferred medicine.

They may then return to their posts to witness the Comex open.

All subjects must refrain from any outward expression of glee.

( da' seal of Goldburg ) The Acting Minister of Entertainment
( signature )

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:13 - ID#341214)
All: Merry Christmas PM lovers. I think Santa Claus came last night!


Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:19 - ID#287367)
Thank you, Bless you, for giving us-

Mike Sheller
(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:22 - ID#347447)
Re Silver
Fasten your seatbelts lads and lassies. As observed earlier in the month in the latest Astrological Investor at Gold-Eagle, the approaching Jupiter sextile with NYSE Moon ( silver! ) does not FULLY mature until mid month. With a bit of momentum overhang from Jupiter ( and why not? ) we could see strong movement into Christmas. How fortuitous. "Silver bells, silver bells..." Must run to tend our silver property in the Southwest. Alaska is SO dreary this time of year. G'day all.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:23 - ID#197289)
Silver stocks
Silver at 5.50 - ASM down at 1.70 - who would have thought? - so much for efficient market theory. Go Silver.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:34 - ID#258427)
Are we still Kicking ??? 10 minutes with no posts / changes ...comex opening??

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:36 - ID#427357)
DINES LATEST ON GOLD (December 10, 1997) - HE cottons to SILVER
Internationally acclaimed newsletter editor, James Dines, shares his LATEST ON GOLD. Additionally, he calls attention to two of his favorite precious metals stocks: Agnico-Eagle and Stillwater Mining - both are hot-wired to their charts, just CLICK the name. It is also obvious analyst Dines cottons to silver:

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:38 - ID#31868)
That is one of the truly good things about ASM. 7 trades and it can move up quite a bit. Give it some time. It takes nothing to more little old Avino.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:49 - ID#57232)
Silver shorts
Donald: I wonder, can they ask for IMF assistance? All they need to to is make it look like they are a country in currency/debt crisis!

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:50 - ID#287367)
I must be dreaming !
Gold 286.45 +3.40 08:45

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:52 - ID#93232)
Late yesterday, my posterial moon became aligned with URANUS and the result was stellar...MIKE SHELLAR.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:52 - ID#287367)
Now I KNOW I'm dreaming!
Gold 287.65 +4.60 08:49
Looks like we'll get that gap up and island reversal in ABX and $XAU

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:54 - ID#398105)
Haggis ....

Have any of you been to a Burns Supper......... the Scots always combine culture and the basics of life. Haggis, the food, is an acquired taste, there are good reasons why the Scots invented Whiskey.

I would sincerely hope that some of you bought East Coast Minerals and Legend Mining NL, conditional on the silver price.

The next up and coming metal is vanadium - batteries which will replace lead batteries. Potential market in excess of US$ 1 billion per year.

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:57 - ID#26793)
Did you notice the DG ratio yesterday? It seems too easy but a turn at 28.64 is really impressive knowing the old high was 28.61!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 08:58 - ID#31868)
Crystal Ball
This gold and silver stuff is nothing. The Giants are in first place!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:01 - ID#246224)
Let's see if this market goes the way of '29 ( like last time DG was 28.6 ) .

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:02 - ID#246224)
Take joy in this move if you have waited it out. Hope we can forget the pain as we see the spike up. GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO GOLD! GOOOOOOOOOOOO SILVER!!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:04 - ID#57232)
xau/gold ratio
Donald: This ratio looks great too! Long term buy at anything less than 0.2.

I like that!:

Lone Arranger=Lone Ranger=High ho, Silver!

What does Tonto do?

I'm still waking up or I would have got it sooner.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:07 - ID#246224)
StradMaster - Welcome back
Hope your strings are tight and your bow is rosin'd. Why not strike up a "jig'n'reel" so we can dance in light of today's suprise. Thanks!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:08 - ID#31868)
The Camdesuss Cheering Section
Wednesday December 10, 12:10 am Eastern Time

S.Korean militant groups demand IMF renegotiation

SEOUL, Dec 10 ( Reuters ) - South Korea's militant civic group and labour union held a protest on Wednesday to demand the government renegotiate a $57 billion International Monetary Fund-led ( IMF ) rescue package.

South Korean press and opposition politicians have called the IMF package a ``humiliation'' and voiced concern over ``loss of economic sovereignty'' to the IMF and nations such as the United States and Japan which make up the muscle of the body.

About 30 members of the leftist civic group National Alliance for Democracy and the Reunification of Korea held a rally in downtown Seoul on Wednesday, witnesses said.

They called for a renegotiation of the IMF package and for the punishment of President Kim Young-sam and officials involved in driving South Korea's economy into crisis.

The radical leaders said in a statement they would wage a ``full-fledged fight for an IMF renegotiation'' and slammed the United States and Japan for using the IMF to ``invade the country's economy.''

Conditions for the IMF package include slashing economic growth in half to about 2.5-3.0 percent and restructuring financial institutions.

Under the IMF package South Korea will have to open its financial markets and allow mergers and acquisitions by foreigners.

South Korea's militant Korean Confederation of Trade Unions also said they had staged a protest in front of the Federation of Korean Industry, a lobby group for large conglomerates, or chaebols.

Two of South Korea's three main presidential candidates have also said in television debates that the IMF deal should be renegotiated.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:09 - ID#258427)
@Start Rumours...
I don't want to start any rumors ... but is COMEX having trouble matching buyers and sellers ...??? Anybody got real time data?? Only 250 contracts so far?? Help...

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:10 - ID#420116)
Echo Bay Silver (to rube)
Echo Bay silver production in 1996 7,102,348 ozs., silver
reserves 53,858,000. From Echo Bay Mine ( ECO ) 1996 Annual

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:13 - ID#402148)
What's with the $.50 silver spread on COMEX? Seems suspicious.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:15 - ID#427357)

Dec 5 - TOKYO:
Per Shuji Karasawa of the Japanese parliament: Japanese gold holdings are far too low

Dec 5 - TOKYO:
Per Head of Japanese LDP: US Dollar dependence too great, we need more gold to offset excessive Dollar dependence.

Financial Fairy-tale or Expedient Global Monetary Necessity: Global Gold Standard?! STARTLING IMF data demonstrate its feasibility. BOJs T-Bond holdings is the keystone for success. Japan WOULD NEED TO BUY MANY TONNES of GOLD. EMU member participation essential.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:18 - ID#427357)
COMEX FEB '98 GOLD Now UP $5.20 at 290.10!!!!!!!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:24 - ID#284255)
From the fair astro goddes Deesse
All the Fools were chattin' and havin' a bash.
Toutin' IOMG when the watchword was 'crash.'
"Buy-and-hold" was their cry "And wealthy you'll be,"
Not realizing the Fool's Bubble was adrift in the sea..............
The MF's weren't there; not one there for laughs.
They were runnin' around and lookin for rafts.
None knew it was comin' nor would be gigantic,
But the Fools were all sailin' the Dow Jones Titantic..................
They were buyin' on highs and buyin' on lows.
Buyin' and sayin' "to the moon it goes"
"Hey, Fools!" they said, "This ain't 29."
"Keep buyin' and all you Fools will be fine.".....................
And it wasn't until the parabola collapsed,
Margin calls had come in, and time had elapsed,
That the Fools said, then, they always knew,
"Stocks don't just go up, Hell! They go down too!"
Aurator I was not joshing.
What I stated was what transpired today.
God knows how many others they have done this to.
But talking to the girl on the phone it was heaps.
How many other banks etc.
How many other people.
The bank told me that they would be pressing charges for fraudulant use.
I did not have to ask for this, they told me that is what they were doing.
This blows me out. absolutly unbelievable.

The ping widens at an ever growing rate.
Dec putties might come up smelling the roses.
One good day down may make this market.
( :O}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}]]]

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:27 - ID#364147)
@ Am I hallucinating
Gold is soaring----WAKE UP EB!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:30 - ID#333127)
to IAtoIU

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:30 - ID#333131)
Does anyone have the comex gold volume and open interest for yesterday?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:34 - ID#348286)
@Has Gold bottomed
The 64 thousand dollar question?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:35 - ID#333131)
good sign
Looks like the gold/platinum spread players are starting to cover.

Silver Bull
(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:42 - ID#287312)


TODAY: 321 TOTAL: 6,078


TODAY: 429 TOTAL: 8,361

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:46 - ID#427357)
Feb '98 COMEX GOLD Futures UP $5.40 to 290.30. The Nippons are buying!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:47 - ID#215208)
Gold star to APH
APH - Great call on gold on Monday ( buy when Dec. gold trades under 283 ) . You were a lonely voice then. Seems you have company now. It's rare when someone predicts the level and the timing so well. Where did you get your cystal ball, and how much did it cost? I'd like to get one.

D.A. Thanks for the URL to spot currency. Just what I was looking for.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:50 - ID#31868)
To those that wait my friend. Patience is a gold and silver pair of virtues.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:50 - ID#427357)
First crack outta the box Up Nearly 4%.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:52 - ID#284177)
Steves specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

Crisis shoves Korea's giants to wall

Hyundai to cut Aussie jobs as sales get set to slow

Consumers take fright over Asia's bad news

Operation windback for gold

Gold crash hits stocks and dollar

Miners trashed in new gold slump

Getting the measure of commodity prices


ASIA'S NEXT CASUALTY? Bad banks could clobber China

Whistling past the graveyard in Asia



Rupiah now down 100% for the year

Korean Won down by 10%. Down 70% for year.

Asian Crisis on track for foreign bank control

Clinton shifts strategy on nuclear war

Billion-dollar buyouts lead attack on bankruptcy
Korean Shipbuilding Group had 20 times debt to equity!

Markets suspicious of Japanese intentions

Korean steel hits US & European production

S.Korea media knock U.S., Japan on IMF bailout

IMF has the tigers by the tail - or does it?

Trouble brewing in Indonesia?

The good, the bad and the ugly banks of Asia

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

Steve - Perth
(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:56 - ID#284177)
Harry Schultz update on Gold
In the latest Harry Schultz newsletter he says that Gold is not going to
seriously take off unless it has gone well past US$315 oz. I will get somewhat excited then. Meanwhile, $250 is still quite possible.

On a stock buying note, I noticed that CALTEX in Australia ( an oil refiner ) is picking up somewhat. As the price of oil has fallen, the oil refiner can obtain their raw resource cheaper, & is therefore more profitable. It is bearing out in the share price! Been quiet for sometime before. Any bets on the oil price now??

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:59 - ID#427357)
Cape Canaveral at GOLD-EAGLE
Intra-Day Charts show ALL UP: Gold, Silver XAU & HUI:

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:59 - ID#228128)
DJ: Would you repost that currency URL. I missed it from DA.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 09:59 - ID#31868)
Take a peek at ASM ( asgmf ) during the day. Definition - scalded cat on acid.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:01 - ID#255151)
Poetic License

There once was a man from Nantuckett, Whose stocks were so big you could truck it. He said any day, With the bear on the way, If I sell out now I can duck it.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:03 - ID#427357)
Currencies URL
IDT: The Mother of all Cuurencies locations is:

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:04 - ID#364147)
@ Bein dragged 'kickin + screaming' from my charts
To Sydney and the 'real' CASINO ( Nick ( C ) : I wish it was the OTHER Sydney too!!!!!!!!!!.....bbMl with updated CHARTS and my latest analysis of gold as it pertains to the geo-political scene as it currently exists in this weird limbo-like state of 'being' that we currently find ourselves in....

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:07 - ID#427357)
Cape Canaveral at GOLD-EAGLE
Intra-Day Charts show ALL UP: Gold, Silver XAU & HUI:

Silver Bull
(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:09 - ID#287312)

"Silver lease rates in London are at 8-9%....London trade and funds...appears to be a consortium."

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:13 - ID#28594)
Lest we forget...Herstatt....
Remarks by E. Gerald Corrigan
Chairman, International Advisors,Goldman, Sachs & Co. ( &G30 )
at the Symposium on Risk Reduction in Payments, Clearance and Settlement Systems ( Selected passages )

4. Major Market Shocks: It goes without saying that major market shocks can raise significant questions as to the ability of institutions and market participants to meet their obligations as they pertain to exchanges of value through payment, clearance and settlement systems. The most vivid example of this phenomenon arose in connection with the 1987 stock market crash, when the speed and depth of the fall in stock prices seriously called into question whether individual firms or market participants had incurred losses that were so large as to undermine their ability to meet their obligations, including their obligations to exchanges and clearing entities.

5.Impaired Financial Institutions: The greatest danger to the well-being of payment, clearance and settlement systems arises in the circumstances of an internationally active financial institution whose reputation or financial strength is so impaired as to render it uncreditworthy in the eyes of other institutions or market participants. When this occurs, the most elementary reaction sets in; namely, the instant the fear of not being paid takes hold, other firms will slow or halt the flow of money and valuables to the affected institution. The problem, of course, is that the process builds on itself in that if money and valuables are not delivered to the troubled institution, it cannot meet its obligations, and the population of affected institutions can increase very quickly.

Finally, we are reminded with disturbing frequency that even with the marvels of technology, and perhaps also because of these marvels -- breakdowns in elementary controls can produce nasty and dangerous surprises.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:13 - ID#284255)
Hi Ho and away
Silver long term chart.
Showing resistance levels.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:17 - ID#387247)
BOTTOM ?????
Well here goes.....We have been discussing a bottom in gold....This appears to be it. You oldtimers will remember some of the things that have been said about when a bottom comes. We now have had the "spike down", tested the lows and had the bounce. If I had to guess odds, I would say with about 95% accuracy that the bottom is in. Happy hunting and GO GET 'EM GUYS !!!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:19 - ID#57232)
Glad you're up!
sharefin: Good to hear from the market/gold Tsunami surfer! Watch out for the Fibonacci turbulence ( froth ) !. My guess is that we will have to watch for short covering in gold -- hard to believe anyone is short in silver, but it is possible.

I still have my sp-500 puts, but did sell the XAU puts ( one day too early -- but one day later would have been a wipeout ) .

I maintain that D.A. probably has the US markets figured out the best. Inflation on the horizon, despite the cheap goods Tsunami.

Strad Master
(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:20 - ID#250297)
ALLEN ( USA ) + NEWS FLASH!!!: Thanks for the warm welcome back. I hate it whe my computer is down. Most of the time,though, I just couldn't post so I kept lurking. Anyhow, I'd love to play a fiddle tune for all of us, but I want to wait until I can total up my REAL gains. I learned a long time ago that the only important gains are the ones that are bankable. Nevertheless, I'm delighted by today's action as I am finally in good position to recoup the big losses. ( We interrupt this program for an important News Item - heard as an interrupt on a news radio station: Just announced that he Trade Deficit with Japan has shot up over 11%!!!! )

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:21 - ID#215208)

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:21 - ID#387247)
FIRE !!!!
Haved fired the greates part of the dry powder yesterday and this morning. Had mentioned to several on here that I would notify the group when it was done. IT IS ALMOST DONE !!!!! Just a couple more trades to go.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:23 - ID#197289)
Re: ASM - I'm now a happy camper.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:24 - ID#333232)
GOX up 4% (will it hold?)

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:25 - ID#57232)
Musing: Derivative risk calculations for Banks
SDRer: I bet those "conservative" banks have a small army of people who calculate derivatives risk - I wonder when they did it last -- possibly before the VIX nearly doubled? Those risk calculations only work reliably in stable markets.

Think it will take several months for the biggest losses to surface?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:28 - ID#215208)
All - Before you all fire all dry powder, keep in mind that gold must break 295 or thereabouts to break out of the tight downward channel it has been in since early October. To me this is the first real hurdle. Proceed with extreme caution. This could turn in a minute. This could be a sympathy rally tied to silver ( which by the way has crashed through the top of its upward channel. The only question is how high! ) .

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:32 - ID#288352)
Did any one see that.
On USA today Dow showed down 48.61, ( about 10:20AM ) Now it has been wiped out and is at 00

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:33 - ID#427357)
DINES LATEST ON GOLD (December 10, 1997) - HE cottons to SILVER
Internationally acclaimed newsletter editor, James Dines, shares his LATEST ON GOLD. Additionally, he calls attention to two of his favorite precious metals stocks: Agnico-Eagle and Stillwater Mining - both are hot-wired to their charts, just CLICK the name. It is also obvious analyst Dines cottons to silver:

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:34 - ID#258427)


(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:37 - ID#33180)
Earl: My bottom call Friday on CDE at 7 3/8 was 5/16 early, so far, and is now down in the gap you couldn't have bought in this morning at the 8 1/16 open. My 12.90 bottom call on FSAGX was a penny from last night's close. You were right that I was premature in seeing a bottom on Friday. But if it turns out that the real bottom didn't occur until yesterday, I'll still be a happy camper. That, of course remains to be seen. The gap up open was lovely, but I don't see enough follow-through yet to make me confident that we are out of the woods altogether.

Mike Stewart
(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:40 - ID#270253)
McClellan Summation for Mining Issues
I have mentioned here that my McClellan Summation Index for Toronto Mining Issues was in bear market bottom mode. With today's surge, it is likely finished with the downside momentum for now. The level yesterday was -1995. Turning up from a level below -1500 has indicated major bottoms in the S&P500, TSE300 etc. This is the first one for the Toronto mining issues since I only have data for four years. Levels below -2000 have been "slam-dunks" but are rare.

So what does this mean?

We have seen the momentum bottom for this bear phase. A spike down ( very brief ) is possible in a couple of weeks, but trading positions should be in place for a move up over the next few months.

Ideally, the summation index should exceed +2000 by May-June to confirm a bull market. If it cannot display such strength ( tops out in March at +1000 for example ) , we will have at least a retest of these lows later next year.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:51 - ID#287277)
JTF, Derivatives musings....
Unhappily--with equity repos--it's not just banks: it is mutual
funds, insurance companies, corportions, on--one suspects--ad infinitum!
Lord what a mess. Take a look at this; I was surprised ( yet again ) ....
Currency values in Gold & SDR

When countries currencies are converted to gold and/or XDR, from least valuable to most, the ranking lists are identical. Interesting yes?
SDR List--Ranking identical to gold list posted 12/9/97
China ( Renmimbi ) ...........0.08952
New Zealand...........0.4439
United States of America...........0.66696
Great Britain...........1.2213

Is Mexico's ( for example ) currency really worth MORE than Japan's?
In gold and SDR it is!
EB, we need an expert opinion!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:51 - ID#287277)
JTF, Derivatives musings....
Unhappily--with equity repos--it's not just banks: it is mutual
funds, insurance companies, corportions, on--one suspects--ad infinitum!
Lord what a mess. Take a look at this; I was surprised ( yet again ) ....
Currency values in Gold & SDR

When countries currencies are converted to gold and/or XDR, from least valuable to most, the ranking lists are identical. Interesting yes?
SDR List--Ranking identical to gold list posted 12/9/97
China ( Renmimbi ) ...........0.08952
New Zealand...........0.4439
United States of America...........0.66696
Great Britain...........1.2213

Is Mexico's ( for example ) currency really worth MORE than Japan's?
In gold and SDR it is!
EB, we need an expert opinion!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:54 - ID#243250)
Mike Stewart
I would like to get some more information about the McClellan summation index.PLease post more info for this reference material.... Regards

Mike Stewart
(Wed Dec 10 1997 10:57 - ID#270253)
South Africans
I was reading an old copy of "Strategic Investing" by Doug Casey where he reviews action in South African golds. It looks a bit wierd and familiar. I have compared it to the current situation.

74 Hi 76 Low 80 Hi
Dreifontein 18 4.25 41.00
Free State 37.50 10.25 97.25
St. Helena 50.50 9.12 60.00
Pres Brand ( now FSCNY ) 40.00 8.25 82.75
Pres Stern ( now FSCNY ) 40.00 5.37 72.25
Western Holding 56.75 12.37 117.75

Average decline from 74 to 76 -79.2%
Median Decline from 74 to 76 -77.3%

Gold declined 36.8% in 22 Months from 74 to 76.

94 Hi 97 Low
Kloof 17.88 3.00 -83.2%
Free State 18.12 3.62 -80.0%
Vaal Reefs 11.75 3.00 -74.5%
Dreifontein 17.00 5,75 -66.2%

Average Decline 94 to 97 -76%
Median Decline 94 to 97 -77.3%

Gold is down 32.7% in 22 months.

From 1976 to 1980 the South Africans made it to double the 1974 highs.

Today's history lesson is over. Food for thought.

Strad Master
(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:01 - ID#250297)
Reason for the Trade Deficit Jump
ALL: Just heard the official ( talking head ) version of the reason for the big jump in the trade deficit with Japan. ( For those of you who missed it, it's up 11% ) The Japaneese have sharply cut their buying of US Treasuries. Hmm... What was that ( later retracted ) off-the-cuff comment that Hashimoto made awhile ago about redeeming US Trasuries and buying gold? As I recall, that sent the market into a brief tailspin.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:04 - ID#25588)
DJ - Thanks for the gold star. No cystal ball, I just do my homework. Anyone who is short the SnP above 987.00 ( 12/3, 20:08 ) you may want to off set here ( 974.00 ) and wait for another trade, otherwise move stop down to 981.00.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:04 - ID#22956)
Giants First Place..........bfd(BFD).....
Your Giants may be in first place but your Nix ( suk ) are 5 ( FIVE ) straight LOSSES ( LOSSES ) on the ROAD ( ROAD ) . OH! MY! ( OH MY! ) .....

John Barks like a dog must be throwin BIG ( BIG ) tantrums....bein spanked by Michael.....uh huh. watch silver move ( MOVE ) ....

oh yeah............go gold.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:07 - ID#325284)
I like what I see today but I still remember what good old Laokoon said, when everybody in town enjoyed the Trojan horse.

Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes!

Dont want to spoil the party, but it aint over till its over,IMVVVVHO.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:15 - ID#262242)
Its good to hear you
Hello Strad master. Glad you are back, hope your computer problems are solved once and for all.

If you should "play your fiddle", I would consider it an honor to be there and listen. We come to So. Calif. about three time a year. Our future son-in-law is a buding concert pianest.

Hello Reify
Hello DJ

(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:15 - ID#255151)
Another Bitch at the White House

It seems the Clintons have adopted a Chocolate Laborador Retriever to be fill in the spot for First Dog, a post left vacant since Millie's departure in Jan. '89. There is a request to submit names for the new puppy. Some of the more amusing names suggested so far-- Checkers; Shoes; Rodham ( heh heh ) ; Bender ( heh heh ) ; Rover; and ( in honor of the FBI files ) Snoopy.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:17 - ID#255151)
Another Bitch at the White House

It seems the Clintons have adopted a Chocolate Laborador Retriever to be fill in the spot for First Dog, a post left vacant since Millie's departure in Jan. '89. There is a request to submit names for the new puppy. Some of the more amusing names suggested so far-- Checkers; Shoes; Rodham ( heh heh ) ; Bender ( heh heh ) ; Rover; and ( in honor of the FBI files ) Snoopy.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:20 - ID#57232)
Musing: Gold/Gold stock bear from 1974-1976
Mike Stewart: Interesting post. Did Casey say anything about Central Bank antics similar to the present situation? How about mine closings? Gold loan rates before the tide turned?

Mike Stewart
(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:24 - ID#270253)
McClellan Osc Info

check out

You can do a search on "McClellan Oscillator" to get others.
The Foundation for the Study of Cycles has all the historical data for a fee. They have a web site, but I don't know it off hand. They are in Pennsylvania.

Strad Master
(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:29 - ID#250297)
Nothing to do with Gold or Silver - but it's short...
BILLinOREGON: My computer problems are never fully solved. I've just learned how to circumvent them for long periods of time. Let me know when you are in So. Calif. next, and we'll get together. Always love meeting fellow Kitcoites. Please e-mail me and also tell me who your future son-in-law is. Perhaps I know him. E-mail:

(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:32 - ID#316232)
Lone Rangers silver
TORTFEASOR.. I am disappointed in your recent comment.
Anyone of your age and experience, being from the West, should know that the Lone ( not loan ) Ranger has his own silver mine and makes his own bullets. He does not outsource and therefore cannot blamed for this runup in silver prices.

How about another joke..

(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:34 - ID#333131)
Anybody want to lease some silver?
One month silver lease rate @ 7.5%

(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:37 - ID#401460)
20 Planes a year "postponed'
Just the beginning.

Microsoft needs Asia desparately to buy its Windows Crap no one else wants it, 140 or 70/ share.

Mike Stewart
(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:41 - ID#270253)


Doug Casey's book in Jan 1982 ( Strategic Investing ) and his 1979 book ( Crisis Investing ) are both very bullish on gold. He was right on in 1979 and less so in 1982. Intermediate term moves were great in both cases.

He refers to gold as being the most political of all metals and commodities. From this , he determines that prices levels are difficult to predict on a short term basis, but more obvious from a long term perspective. I guess that you can only fiddle with reality for so long.

His books were looking for depression and collapse, so you can't take what he says too seriously. ( The 1982 bottom in stocks likely coincided with the release party for the book ) The guy writes good books, but appears to be nothing but a junior stock promoter/ newsletter hustler/ talk show host on a daily basis.

He wrote a good book in about 1995, where I believe that he expected a deflationary fakeout before the next bull market in gold. That prediction looks pretty good from where I sit.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:50 - ID#328159)
(strad master) - Hashimoto's famous speech, here it is
Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto said on 23rd June 1997:

"I hope the U.S. will engage in cooperation to maintain exchange stability, so that we will not succumb to the temptation to sell U.S. treasury Bills and switch our funds to gold."

( The Japanese have been getting twitchy about the yen/dollar rate at 130+ recently! )

Hashimoto also said:

"There are many countries in the world which conduct the management of their foreign exchange reserves in Treasuries. These countries continue to hold on to those Treasuries, even when the dollar plummets. And to some extent, it is this continued holding of Treasuries which supports the U.S. economy."

Sounds ominous, does it not? - Commentary on threat to dump bonds - Transcript of Hashimoto's comments


(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:53 - ID#285233)
Well, the massive tripple top formation is well in and there is not much to do but watch.

Gold will still need more action than seen today, but the bottom is likely in. There will be still a lot of effort to wham it, but to no avail. Hope you have staked out your claims!!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:54 - ID#57232)
Foundation for the Study of Cycles
Mike Stewart, All: This is one of my favorite spots on the Net. This site probably has the world's largest collection of historical time-series data, as well as books on cycles, etc., market cycles included.

I will give you a little tidbit that may interest some of you:

1 ) Sunspot cycles correlate statistically with the world's weather. For example the ElNino's tend to be farther apart during high solar activity. Also the temperature of the sun ( solar constant ) rises slightly during periods of high sunspot activity. This was invogue in the scientific literature some years ago, faded badly, and is now being resurrected with more accurate satellite solar irradiance/ and earth weather data.

2 ) As Kiwi was alluding to, heliocentric conjuctions of planets have a tidal effect on the sun, which drives the sunspot cycle. The best info is a Jupiter-Neptune cycle, which matches the 11.x year sunspot period to 4 significant figures. What is also interesting is that ( near or complete ) heliocentric conjuctions of Earth-Venus-Jupiter also have the same 11.x year period, also the same 4 significant figures ( see Roy Tomes sunspot web site for the math ) .

If any of you want relevance to the markets, rising sunspot activity ( happening now ) correlates long term with rising markets/commodity prices. I would suggest that any of you who wish to invest on this info correlate this with monthly historical market activity first. I have not figured out how to use this as a short-term indicator.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 11:58 - ID#287277)
Correction: USD in XDR is 0.74131 ( I will not post before morning
coffee again...
Sorry about double post--I only clicked on "Submit" once!??

Tolerant@9:09, "loss of economic sovereignity"; isn't that what
you've been trying to explain to LGB2 & Karlito99?

Sharefin@09:24, N I C E!! Puts, Puts, Puts, "I think I can,
I think I can, I KNOW I can!" from the story of "The Dec Puts That

JTF@00:26, I don't think they have a good 'handle' of the
huddled masses of Eurodollars waiting to come home. Figures released
sometimes, but not factual IMHO!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:01 - ID#426220)
SOMETHING IS AFOOT! So far in Wednesday trading 35 of the worlds 45 largest Stock Exchanges are awash in RED... and those few that are up, barely eked out small gains. We are talking down markets in ALL the Americas, Europe, Asian & Pacific countries, Africa and the Middle-East... vivid testament to the worsening Domino Effect gripping the entire globe.

Just by extending massive loans to Asian Banks, the IMF IS NOT ADDRESSING THE ESSENCE OF THE PROBLEM: Which is simply that the borrowers cannot repay their debts! UNFORTUNATELY, ASIAN Debtors bit off more than they can chew financially.

It doesn't take a double Ph.D. in Mathematics AND Finance to understand the ludicrous folly of the Asian Banking Debacle looming on the horizon of the Land of the SETTING Sun... and the horrific ramifications which inevitably will ensue.

THIS is the LATEST analysis of the Asian Banking Domino Effect by John Kutyn -

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:03 - ID#215208)
Gangs all here.
BillinOregon - Hi back to you. For some reason, I thought you might drop in today.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:03 - ID#258427)
Gold Spot Price
What's with Kitco's it correct...

Feb Gold is up:
Feb. Gold

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:03 - ID#269409)
Silver begins.... Gold forming firm bottom
Allen asked me to call the metals direction 2 days ago, he we are. Silver is now finally beginning it's meteroic rise, much to me delight, as I'm more heavily invested there than anywhere else, since July of this year.

Gold? I've been saying for months that $280 will be the bottom that will hold. I still believe that to be correct. Looks like we're a couple bucks from bottom today. $280 +/- $10 is the bottom formation, then Gold and Gold shares will begin several years of a slow but sustained bull ( all the Bearish articles and commentaries in the media notwithstanding, they were correct for years, but a shift is now ready to begin. The mass media analysts will miss this shift, as they missed the early stages of the DOW's incredible rise )

Platinum is taking an absolute pounding. I'm beginning to wonder about RJ's wisodm. Don't see how he can possibly be right about Silver $6.00 Oz. being a "sell into a black hole" level, and his calls on Platinum are falling flat. However, we'll give it a few months and see what happens. Platinum being closely tied to industry, in worldwide manufacturing slowdown, does not bode well. Silver is industrial metal also, but primary consumption is from photography, and it's less subject to declining consumption in worldwide recession than Platinum will be. We'll see.

In any case, very happy this day, this week, this month, as Silver begins it's break from it's richer weaker cousins.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:07 - ID#57232)
Deflationary fakeout in US before next gold bull market!
Mike Stewart: Interesting way you put that. That is exactly what D.A. has concluded is happening now, and I am inclined to believe him, because I think the US markets are strong enough to weather the current world-wide deflationary fire that AG is trying to out with dollars. This pattern coincides with my sunspot activity monitoring which shows that for over one hundred years, periods of the fastest risng sunspot activity are also periods when the commodity price index rises. I'm not sure what the mechanism is yet, but this will happen in 1998, and end in 1999.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:07 - ID#234182)
back to M.Stewart
Thanks for the websites ...just started, looks interesting...regards

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:10 - ID#408147)
deadcat bounce
Metals heading back down again. Hopefully a strong base can be formed soon so a real rally can begin. At least someone/something decided to jump in big today...

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:11 - ID#31868)
Dear Effluent Banalities
I hate the knicks. Go Giants.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:17 - ID#228100)
Auric - Dog in White House
The news media have certainly focused on the new dog in the White House this week.

Theyve had problems with female visitors have been jumped and licked, and the White House staff has had some major problems removing the urine stains from the antique furniture.

I have also heard that the dog is causing some problems there, too.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:18 - ID#246224)
Looks like selling into very strong demand. When that's exhausted... Bang-O. Love them lease rates! Gold wanted to follow but broke down. Not enough conviction in that group. ( spot&futures ) Are we a new phase here: some folks ( first wave ) betting big on long for the first time in gold/follow through for silver? Consolidation before anther strong surge??? Second wave of long's. Then TO THE MOON??? Can't wait to see the Comex numbers this PM.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:19 - ID#31868)
In a word -YES.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:21 - ID#258427)
Dow just broke through the big one...:


(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:29 - ID#246224)
At day end ..
Silver 5.70, gold 285 ??? Interesting what may happen again in late Hong Kong and early London trading tomorrow. We shall see. The buying came from London? Just like fireworks: "do it again!".

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:34 - ID#165252)
a beginners question
After reading some of the posts and the links to various analyst I'm
playing with the idea of owning physical gold.
My question is... If the markets do fall, How will the metals convert
back to dollars ( or any trade unit ) . Will my friendly dealer have the
dollars to buy back the metals at their increased prices?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:37 - ID#22956)
Banal as you get and Effluence is I
Here is a joke to release some tension around here.....

Two young nuns having just been ordained were on a holiday in

New York City and were standing in front of the gorilla cage at

the Bronx Zoo.

The gorilla took one look at this beautiful young nun, bent the bars,

lept to the ground and ravished her. Then he went back into his cage,

straightened the bars and resumed thumping on his massive chest.

The young nun got up off the ground, straightened and dusted her

clothes, turned to her companion and said,"We shall never talk

about this, agreed?" The other young nun consented.

Twenty five years later the two nuns, who had stayed close friend,

were out having coffee, when all of the sudden, the second nun asked

her friend," I know I agreed never to talk about the event at the

zoo but I have one question."

The other nun stared and said,"O.K., one question!"

The other nun stammered, then asked, "Did it hurt?"

"Did it hurt? Oh yes it hurt! He never called..., he never

phoned..., he never sent flowers...!"

Dear Tol 1 - my conversation was with and is usually with Ted. If it hit close to be it. go lakers...go gold... spew forth till it hurts...uh huh


(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:38 - ID#201131)
JPM and Korea
JP MOrgan loses money in unsettled markets. What I dont know yet is which unsettled market did they lose money in? My guess is it is overseas bonds and currencies that are hitting them. Ko

Korea wants the US to give them the same deal they did Mexico. As we speak every currency that the IMF bailed out is at new lows. When will people go to gold instead?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:39 - ID#304163)
Any ideas from anyone on the potential for the Korean/other Asian banks' ( not CBs ) exposure to gold? Do they lend/act as agents to the Aussie producers?

Thanks in advance

Dave in CO
(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:40 - ID#215211)
@SDRer_A RE: double post
Maybe, when you hit the "back button" to the screen you just posted? I think that's the sequence when it happened to me. When I backed up to the posting screen other times, I was quick enough to hit the "stop button" and it didn't seem to repost.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:45 - ID#333131)
Let me guess what's happening.
Hedge funds have been very long commex gold for some time. Suppose this is a partial offset to borrowed gold already sold. How to extricate? They would have to buy physical over night and sell enough futures to not let it get out of control. This will work for them as long as they can manage it.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:46 - ID#31868)
Owning a core position in the metal is for protection and insurance. After that an investment position in the metals can be established. Once the metals have risen to a price in paper that invites you to sell you will find buyers are falling all over themselves to buy it from you.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 12:47 - ID#78117)
Gold is Soaring..... downward
I find it halarious that when gold takes a small technical bounce, everyone here goes orgasmic.... gold is down from its soaring heights of the day. Being very short on gold my bet is that it will continue down.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:04 - ID#246224)
Wondering re selling
If you are in the USA I can make a stab at answering your question. If gold gets expensive then you will have buyers looking for it. No problem. Retail coin shops will offer to sell to you at spot+$$$premium, will buy back from you at spot+$preminum. The difference is their profit, you paid them to act as market. Up the line at the major wholesale level the US Mint requires these companies to "make" a market. They must buy also, not just sell. So ultimately your local shop would have them as a buyer. You could also sell to another individual without going through a coin shop or other dealer.

The amount you buy will ( should ) determine the spread you pay. If you are talking $10,000 or more then you may be getting close to a wholesale level. Push them for an answer on this. Also there are some quantities which help price a bit ( 10 ea coin for gold, 20 each and 500 ea for silver in 1 oz size ) .

Ask about taxes. Do you in your state pay a retail sales tax? Is there a level of purchase that is tax free ( investment level purchase ) . Some states have a tax up to $1000 but drop it after that.

You have some competition out there who have been buying in front of you. So you may find alot of waiting from order to fulfillment. Make it be known that you are a serious buyer and they will treat you a bit better to keep you around.

Best of luck!
One place to try is Del Greco Coin 800-878-2443 Al Prescott.

Dave in CO
(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:05 - ID#215211)
@Karlito and your derisive comment

I don't read many short-term gold bulls here so I'm not sure what/who you are talking about.

How is your Global Economy and your Goldilocks-economy, no-inflation, everything-is-perfect Dow? We'll see who is right in the long-term.

Do you have any Oracle stock?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:06 - ID#390249)
Soros and silver
Would someone please provide the name of Soros' new silver fund or silver company. I thought I had read about it here a couple of weeks ago. Thanks in advance

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:09 - ID#31868)
Apex Silver - SIL on NAS

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:11 - ID#255284)
Neophyte Apex Silver here


Ted G'day am having probs with it myself, working on it.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:12 - ID#257114)
Anyone comfortable buying First Silver Res. here? Looks like it is moving away from support, hopefully to a sustained upside. But why can't any of these companies display a meaningful upside breakout in anticipation of a meaningful rise in silver. It just seems to be unfolding too slowly for the silver producers. Is something wrong or am I just too impatient?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:13 - ID#255284)


(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:15 - ID#426220)
SOMETHING IS AFOOT! So far in Wednesday trading 35 of the worlds 45 largest Stock Exchanges are awash in RED... and those few that are up, barely eked out small gains. We are talking down markets in ALL the Americas, Europe, Asian & Pacific countries, Africa and the Middle-East... vivid testament to the worsening Domino Effect gripping the entire globe.

Just by extending massive loans to Asian Banks, the IMF IS NOT ADDRESSING THE ESSENCE OF THE PROBLEM: Which is simply that the borrowers cannot repay their debts! UNFORTUNATELY, ASIAN Debtors bit off more than they can chew financially.

It doesn't take a double Ph.D. in Mathematics AND Finance to understand the ludicrous folly of the Asian Banking Debacle looming on the horizon of the Land of the SETTING Sun... and the horrific ramifications which inevitably will ensue.

THIS is the LATEST analysis of the Asian Banking Domino Effect by John Kutyn -

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:18 - ID#287277)
Dave in CO
My thanks. I'll try not to panic when I'm shut-up in that
lil white "Please Wait" room...try to approach it as a Zen

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:18 - ID#316193)
During George Cole's absence here's USAgold comments for today.....

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:22 - ID#215208)
Arisen from the dead?
Neophyte - Does this mean you haven't given up? I have you on my list of the deceased victims of the gold bear as of your post of 11/25.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:24 - ID#373403)
CB overhang psychology
I wonder if the downward value of the threat of CB sales will diminish soon. There has always been more supply in the ground than jewelry and industrial demand yet the price of an ounce of gold usually traded well above the cost to bring it up.

The differential was investor psychology. At what price were an equal amount of gold owners and gold buyers willing to trade paper for metal? As the price decreases because of CB willingness to sell, more people will become willing buyers. The Central Banks will soon be divesting their holdings into a market which disagrees about the value of gold.

Of course there has been much more talk of sales than actual sales.
Maybe the gold they lent out cannot be repaid so they turn a bad loan into a sale at todays lower price and talk down golds value to avoid the political fallout of mismanaging national assets.


(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:28 - ID#215208)
Karlito - Come on. Admit it. You were sweating a little this morning. Right? :- )

Although it is not yet clear that the gold bear has released its grip, you've got more cojones than I have to be short gold at these levels.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:28 - ID#403267)
refer @ 01:49
refer, I mentioned BCMD frequently here in the
past, probably annoying everyone. Mooney told me
to go over to Stk channel but couldn't strike up a
conversation.This is one Ihave made money on a few
times but now am holding long term. It is in real
production at 150/oz cost and with the 150th anniversary
of the Mother Lode area and the 1849 gold strikes and mines
in that area it is an American Story I cannot resist.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:28 - ID#373346)
Karlito...simple not profound
Everyone else is short too. I'd be careful being
short at these levels. If you have profits take
them. If you don't have profits at this level...well
be verrrrry careful.

Volatility will rule for a few days and weeks. This
will be funds hedging, strong physical demand
reasserting itself, and some short covering. Look
for gold to stabilize and the fundamentals to take
over in 1998.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:30 - ID#31868)
go to and click on GOLDBUG - full detail on FSR and several other silver companies.

FWIW I am into FSR and hold quite a stake in it.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:31 - ID#373346)

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:32 - ID#373346)
Try this again Roebear...BCMD
Not to stray from the content of this thread
but I follow the SI BCMD thread and you guys
have done an excellent job of providing true
investor DD. Keep up the good work.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:46 - ID#194311)
Ugly...paper traders look what you have done.
Seoul closes four more merchant banks, forex market paralyzed

SEOUL, Dec 10 ( AFP ) - South Korean financial markets plunged
deeper into turmoil Wednesday as four more merchant banks were
suspended and the won dived to a new nadir despite a desperate
government booster package.
"We are in the middle of an unpredictable forex crisis that has
no end," a local bank dealer said, describing the foreign exchange
market as in a state of "virtual collapse."
The won hit a new record low of 1,565.90 to the dollar within 38
minutes of the opening bell, diving its daily limit of 10 percent,
while the bond market remained at a standstill.
Trading in the won was suspended after the government unveiled
the package designed to pump liquidity into the floundering
Investors, some in tears, shoved riot police outside the
newly-suspended banks, which brought the number suspended to 14,
almost half of the country's 30 merchant banks.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 13:54 - ID#333232)
Russia (we don't need the money yet?)

( as always, apologies if already posted )

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:00 - ID#57232)
We are in temporal sync!
Aurator: Great to be posting at the same time for a change! My work is busy today -- flying fur of VIP's all wanting something, and my juniors need prodding!

Vronsky: Here's something for you to chew on if you haven't already done so -- Part of the problem with SE Asia was that their currencies were driven up by a strong dollar, among other things. Right now the US dollar is being driven up as well relative to gold, it seems. Some time from now, the US dollar will meet a similar fate as the SE Asian countries, perhaps after the inflation that D.A. and others are predicting. The idea is that the dollar flood will more than cancel the SE Asia low priced goods Tsunami. All things in their time, as someone famous and nameless ( to me at least ) said.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:01 - ID#373403)
Cold calling stock brokers
I enjoy when an excited stock tip seller calls to give me the latest "inside" information and I get to explain my goldbug view that the market is due for a major correction with a high potential for recession. As he argues back I can hear the air being released from his euphoria. Finally, in desperation he says, "but the market is rising...?"

It is these few moments that I consider interest on my devaluing gold assets. I look forward to paying capital gains taxes.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:11 - ID#346256)
This is the best article I have yet seen on Kitco in the past year.
This article even though written in 1993, totally corroborates some
ongoing studies that Ginsberg and I are conducting.
We are in the process of entering long positions due to many other
fundamental indicators we are tracking. We feel the time is ripe.
The article I refer to was posted by AURATOR, 12/10/97, 01:00 A.M.

Regards, Murrstein

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:13 - ID#316193)
Kiwi re. your 13:46, tears in the streets in front of banks....

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:14 - ID#401460)
Gold is the only positive thing they have to talk about on CNBC.

XAU +3.02

YELTSEN in the hospital and the Arabs are meeting in Iran - the Saudis are there!

Go Gold

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:14 - ID#390249)
Arisen from the dead
Aurator, Tolerant-thanks for Apex silver info. DJ - I never did throw in the towel. I thought the better of it and have held on to my gold holdings. I've been a frequent lurker. I'm addicted to this site.

I'm cautiously optimistic about gold and am waiting to see if there is any significant producer selling into this rally before I really jump in again.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:17 - ID#262242)
Hold on tight
Hello DJ. It's starting to get exciting, the markets are awash in red and the metals are trying to rise. A lot going on behind the scene as people, governments & institutions try to move the markets in their favor. This week & next week will be very interesting IMVHO.
Will be in Las Vages the 21st 22nd & 23rd of Jan. Will buy lunch if you should just happen to be there. Would be good to see you again.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:18 - ID#194311)
Vision of the future?
makes good quality wall paper I hear.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:34 - ID#333232)
Lots o' wallpaper here
( This guy's better that LGB even ) ;- )

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:35 - ID#234182)
From wert to all
Please see my posts Monday of this week as I threw in the towel, therefore; the markets dramatic turn around, for this you are all welcome;. )

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:38 - ID#403267)
OH EB (duck)
EB, I always enjoy your posts. If you will pardon
a little fun from moi. Are you familiar
with definition two of the word "enfilade". Hope so because
your shorts are about to be enfiladed!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:39 - ID#371247)
Joke of the Day
OK folks, gold is up, silver is up; makes you wonder what is up. The following story does have to do with the currency market and the ebb and flow of competitive forces at work in the marketplace.

The madam opened the brothel door to see an elderly Jewish man. His
clothes were all disheveled and he looked needy. "Can I help you?" the
madam asked. "I want Natalie," the old man replied. "Sir, Natalie is
one of our most expensive ladies, perhaps someone else..." "No, I must
see Natalie."

Just then Natalie appeared and announced to the old man that she
charges $1,000 per visit. The man never blinked and reached into his
pocket and handed her ten $100 bills. The two went up to a room for
an hour whereupon the man calmly left.

The next night he appeared again demanding Natalie. Natalie explained
that no one had ever come back two nights in a row and that there were
no discounts... it was still $1,000. Again the old man took out the
money, the two went up to the room and he calmly left an hour later.

When he showed up the third consecutive night, no one could believe it.
Again he handed Natalie the money and up to the room they went. At the
end of the hour Natalie questioned the old man: "No one has ever used
my services three nights in a row... where are you from?" The old man
replied, "I am from Minsk." "Really?" replied Natalie, "I have a
sister who lives there." "Yes; I know," said the old man. "She gave me
$3,000 to give to you."

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:40 - ID#215208)
Hope springs eternal
Neophyte - Great news! A true gold bug. Maybe this is the beginning of something good. Watch the currencies. They will tell you if this rally will have legs. Best of luck!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:41 - ID#426220)
XAU just made a new high for the day, UP 3.41 points ( +5.3% ) . Gold & Silver Futures have also turned up again:

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:44 - ID#215208)
Tears of laughter
Tort - Good one! You are back in top form.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:52 - ID#372344)
@ OIL, Perception of Realty ?
How coincidental that on the very day that GOLD sentiment is ever so
slowly showing signs of change, we have OIL down .60 to just about $18.00, can $ 17.00 be far behind ?, all IMHO in a co-ordinated effort to
demonstrate to J.Q. Public that inflation is not only dead but burried even
further, all the while the printing presses are in overdrive. No wonder
the ARABS are uniting in IRAN. US "protection" is proving to be costly indeed.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:54 - ID#403195)
Danos et Donae
Fredrico, Laco"on dixit: "Timeo Danos atque donae ferentes." and we have had two US$4.00 gift/s/ this day! It looks as though the dark forces will not be able to close New York low, either. Let us all grasp this straw firmly!

Happy holidays, all. To those long silver and the p.g.m.s, may you have a white Christmas and to the rest, a golden one.


(Wed Dec 10 1997 14:59 - ID#401237)
Yes, and they are running out of $ and BS. It is in the eyes of the public - things are not as good as they say they are. Or that they are worse than they say. "Peceived Values" say it, print it, kiss a dog, etc. and they will believe it everytime attitude is not working for the peolple in Asia, they know how bad it is.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:03 - ID#93232)
One learns with age, to celebrate fanatically each fortunate moment.
What a wonderful day! HOWDY TO ALL!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:03 - ID#201131)
Can Korea be the bombshell that doesnt go away. Their currency is still under attack.Japan will not help them

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:04 - ID#401237)
The Internet always slows down when things start to happen??

Man CNBC really starting to turn negative, the man on the floor - "everyone is worried!"

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:07 - ID#401237)
Korean tried to sell bonds - NO BUYERS!
They want thw US and Japan backup $ NOW, US and Japan said NO! CNBC

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:10 - ID#288156)
Just to be 'safe' here are all five of the things that can bring Big Problems...

Remarks by E. Gerald Corrigan at the Symposium on Risk Reduction in Payments, Clearance and Settlement Systems

 is useful to catalogue the possible sources of events that could produce a major shock to payments, clearance and settlement systems into five groups.

1.Natural disasters, including earthquakes, hurricanes, and other similar events which can neither be predicted nor controlled.

2 .Mechanical Failures: Mechanical failures ranging from sustained computer outages at a major institution to large scale power failures can also be very disruptive

3. Political Shocks: As we all know, political shocks such as Presidential assassinations can cause considerable market turmoil and uncertainty.

4. Major Market Shocks: It goes without saying that major market shocks can raise significant questions as to the ability of institutions and market participants to meet their obligations as they pertain to exchanges of value through payment, clearance and settlement systems.

5.Impaired Financial Institutions: The greatest danger to the well-being of payment, clearance and settlement systems arises in the circumstances of an internationally active financial institution whose reputation or financial strength is so impaired as to render it uncreditworthy in the eyes of other institutions or market participants

T H R E E O U T O F F I V E gives pause....

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:11 - ID#31868)
Wednesday December 10, 2:45 pm Eastern Time

Deutsche to trim US fixed income personnel-sources

NEW YORK, Dec 10 ( Reuters ) - Deutsche Morgan Grenfell appeared poised to cut jobs in its New York fixed income wing, sources familiar with the situation said.

The sources said Deutsche, a primary dealer of U.S. Treasury securities, had let go personnel in its U.S. government securities proprietary trading operation and was in the process of a broader reorganization.

Deutsche officials were not immediately available for comment.

Good ol' boy
(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:27 - ID#26345)
Howdy Studio R. Got off an e-mail yesterday but it was not delivered. Have attempted more today. Wondering if you got them.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:27 - ID#270122)
Dont feel that you are the only one with lousy
timing. Everytime I jumped into the market it would
go down. Every time I would gwt out it would go up.
So, I am changing my strategy. : )

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:31 - ID#23782)
I think I will change my strategy too!!
Instead of buying high and selling low,
I am going to buy low and sell ...... ???

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:35 - ID#26669)
CrystalBall: He who hesitates is lost!
Shoulda taken your advice! I decided to wait until noon and then bid 15+1/2 on ABX if it was strong. But by then the mare was out of the barn. At least she's still in the pasture so I'll try again tomorrow if Au doesn't fall tonight in Hong Kong.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:38 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Ridiculous
well..well..well.. looks like we're finally gettin a bounce-UP for the precious....EB: Yes,the Giants are on the verge of dyNASTY but the Nix are only playin possum and waitin fer the 'real' games ta start!$!...Shaq+ the Lakers suk~~~~~~~~~go team gold!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:41 - ID#426220)
SILVER LINING by The Astrological Investor

Analyst Mike Sheller asserts long-term speculators in bullion and mining stocks may be looking at the kind of opportunity right now that presents itself every several years in the heartbeat of the gold cycle. The last time he made a similar call, he was RIGHT ON THE MONEY in predicting the lows of Oil and Gas stocks in early 1994. Subsequently, hundreds of percent gains were made.

At this particular astrological moment, he says, We kind of feel the same way right now about gold and silver. He names his favorite stocks... which may rise to the stars ( pun intended ) :

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:49 - ID#228100)
Top Ten Complaints Of President Clinton's New Puppy:
10. Whenever you bury a bone, President digs it up and eats it.

9. Late-night walks always end up at local Hooters.

8. Much too easy to mistake Al Gore for a tree.

7. Keep getting yelled at for "fetching" Sam Donaldson's hairpiece.

6. When President says, "Roll over," he's usually talking to his date.

5. Roger hogs all the best chew-toys.

4. If you even look at Janet Reno, you get an assful of size-13 pump.

3. Leash not as nice as the one Hillary uses on Bill.

2. Having to get "fixed," when Clinton's the one who really needs it.

1. Fighting with Bill over the last sausage.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:49 - ID#411259)
..... Silver Shorts = OOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWW!!!!! .....

I was massively wrong on the silver short squeeze and it looks as though they will test the 6.20 level before a pull back. Long PL is the buy of the year here and gold will go lower.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:52 - ID#426220)
Dines Cottons to SILVER
DINES LATEST ON GOLD ( December 10, 1997 )

Internationally acclaimed newsletter editor, James Dines, shares his LATEST ON GOLD. Additionally, he calls attention to two of his favorite precious metals stocks: Agnico-Eagle and Stillwater Mining - both are hot-wired to their charts, just CLICK the name. It is also obvious analyst Dines cottons to silver:

(Wed Dec 10 1997 15:55 - ID#93232)
Oil prices....Schmoil prices....NO PROBLEM (GULP)
Oil analyst, STUDIO.R, delivered a short message to the Arab oil ministers meeting today in Tehran..."Skyrocketing sales of petroleum jelly products in the Asian markets should create a firm bottom for oil producers." The oil futures market is forecasted to open higher tommorrow.

G.O.B. No e.mails received...sent another to you to confirm my address.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:00 - ID#318321)
I'm very encouraged by the gold stock's movement. I had been woried that stocks would not respond until we saw more of an up move in gold. What this tells me is that a lot of investors are just itching to jump on gold stocks once gold begins its move up. They realize that the gold market is manipulated and the up move in gold will be dramatic, but they're not going to move until the new bull market in gold is the real McCoy. What we saw today is the tip of the iceberg in terms of investors ready to move into gold stocks. Of course this is IMO. If someone has a different take I'd like to hear it.

Back to my cubicle,

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:02 - ID#364147)
@ anybody else have a problem with 'this'(non-gold scroll past if offended)
'It' is back-----HERE'S JOHNNIE -


AT LEAST this time, Johnnie Cochran's
client didn't slash his victim's throat - he
merely grabbed it.

But the song remains the same, the cast
sickeningly familiar, the script still effective if a
bit dog-eared.

It won't be long before Latrell Sprewell
becomes O.J. Simpson, P.J. Carlesimo
morphs into Mark Fuhrman, and David Stern
is transformed into Detective Phil Vanatter.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:07 - ID#42371)
Staedy, Thanks for your words of comfort yesterday. I will not jump, but will take the elevator down.. for now!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:12 - ID#372344)
Good One! By the way Highrise is that a gold bar in your pants?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:22 - ID#287277)
Thank you God for Gold; Thank you, Thank you for Silver....but what is going on with
Platinum: Demand 'to outpace supply'
By Kenneth Gooding

Platinum demand will substantially outpace supply this year for the first time since 1988 and there will be a further supply deficit in 1998, according to Johnson Matthey, the world's biggest platinum marketing group.

Tightness of supply boosted platinum prices from less than $350 an ounce in February to a peak of $495 in June. JM suggests in its interim market report that prices will range from $400 to $450 an ounce in the next six months.
Platinum was $391 in London yesterday. JM forecasts that supply will fall from 4.98m ounces last year to 4.77m ounces in 1997 while demand will rise from 4.96m ounces to 5.09m ounces.

Supply problems originated when Russia failed to export any platinum in the first half of this year because of bureaucratic hold-ups and political infighting.

Consequently, Russia's exports are predicted to fall from 1.22m ounces to
700,000 ounces this year. JM expects no increase in Russia's exports next
year because the country's platinum stocks are virtually gone, and estimates that Russia's annual production is only 600,000 ounces. "There is no prospect of higher shipments from South Africa [the biggest producer] where producers are operating close to capacity," says Alison Cowley, author of the review.

JM suggests demand for platinum for jewellery this year will rise from 1.99m ounces to 2.07m ounces while its use in car catalysts - for removing pollutants from engine exhaust fumes - will slip from 1.88m ounces to 1.83m ounces.

Platinum jewellery demand has been lifted this year by a 50 per cent rise in China ( including Hong Kong ) , to 300,000 ounces. China has overtaken Japan as the biggest platinum jewellery market.

In its assessment of prospects for other platinum group metals, JM suggests palladium prices will remain above $190 an ounce but that Russia, the biggest producer, will attempt to contain any rallies above $230.

Rhodium, also used in car catalysts, is forecast to be in deficit this year, with supply at 440,000 ounces compared with demand of 449,000 ounces"

Bill Buckler
(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:25 - ID#257234)
Gold on page 1
The Australian newspaper had a picture of a stack of Gold bars on their front page today ( Dec. 11 ) with the caption "Gold: No longer a precious metal"

Not quite the same thing as being on the cover of Time Magazine, but it is interesting that this happens on the same day as Gold rises from its 1985 lows and Silver soars 43 cents.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:26 - ID#246224)
That was nice!
Always like it when my expectations are exceeded on the up side. Very positive for the bottom line. :- ) Hope everyone is in the black and we can enjoy the ride together. Tally Ho and Awa----------ay!!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:31 - ID#243156)
@excellent momentum
Get the lithium carbonate! Best move in gold and silver in a month of ...
Got good vibes! Looks like the overnight in gold is starting on a positive the way the XAU clawed back to near intraday highs..Hecla Mining unbelievable...Barrick Gold with a good move...closed near high for the day on excellent volume...Kitcoites..this could be the strart of something BIG!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:33 - ID#246224)
SDRer re: more/new/other precious metals
Add Vanadium to your list. Someone posted here earlier that a new battery technology will use it to replace lead. Est. increase of US$1 Bln/year in demand in years to come as this transition happens.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:37 - ID#246224)
Take that all you shorts ..
and that and that and that. Feel the pain. Cover and run to the hills ye varmints. BANG, BANG ( smoking revolver returned to holster with neat little spin ) .

I just love it when they skee-daddle with their tails between their legs like that ( hee, hee, hee ) .

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:50 - ID#285233)
Tonight=real test for Asia&Europe
Interesting night to see what the dominoes will do.

There were many posts over the months here stressing that if the paper market collapses, only the physical PM should be in posession and not pm stocks. Since paper is paper, even PM stocks will go down the drain.\

I disagree because of the following:

1. PM stocks already crashed while the rest of the market is near the top. Over the last few years the DOW is up 400%, while XAU is down 250%.
This represents a factor of difference of 10. These percentages are relative,however, meaningful.

2. PM stocks represent real value. The value that everyone will want.
PM stocks are just like what paper money should be:PAPER BACKED BY GOLD!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:51 - ID#246224)
Oh, Aaaaardeeen, mon frer ..
longingly looking for those be-uty-ful Comex numbers you do so well. Tell us it IS so, eh? Thanks!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:52 - ID#373403)
Maybe the gold lent out by the central banks cannot be repaid so they turn a bad loan into a sale at todays lower price and talk down golds value to avoid the political fallout of mismanaging national assets.


(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:52 - ID#387247)
You old buzzard !!!!! How 'ya doing ???? Long time no see....

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:54 - ID#285233)
At what point will the shorts start covering??
Alan ( USA ) - At what point do you think the gold shorts will be forced to start covering and kick off THE short covering rally??? I think that once that happens we could see a $50 day ( s ) .

(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:54 - ID#243156)
@overnight markets
In after hours trading..March silver up up at least .60 and CLIMBING!

Lan Man
(Wed Dec 10 1997 16:58 - ID#317183)
Bill Buckler: Bet ya that was the SAME pic as was on USA Today - yesterday! Wonder what country it will show up in tomorrow...Was that a sign or what? Better than the cover of Time - more readers will see it!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:04 - ID#411149)
steady- YOU ARE EXACTLY RIGHT!! The gold stocks have already had their beating! People are hungry to own stocks and if technology stocks and the other run of the mill DOW stocks are in a DOWN trend I think some, and it will only take SOME, money will flow into the gold stocks. They are goin to the moon and beyond and YOU GOT TO BE IN TO WIN!

Tally Ho

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:08 - ID#201131)
Paul Stephens and the Contrarian fund
Just got done listening to the conference call on his fund by Paul. He sounded like a wounded gold bull. His basic opinion on gold was he didnt get it as to why it has gone down. He had a couple of interesting points about gold leasing though. He said there was gold lease financing for a copper mine an construction projects because of the low cost of the loan. That helps to explain why we continue to see gold being sold.Gold is viewed as cheap financing. The only way to stop that is to get higher lease rates. Silver lease rates at 7% plus would help.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:13 - ID#255151)
Year2000 @ 12:17 & 15:49

Har! Rumor has it that Clinton told an aide that he got the dog for Mrs. Clinton. The aide reportedly replied, "Good trade, Sir."

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:15 - ID#269409) my eyes decieve me?..... Gold...Shmold
Just got back from performing an audit and logged on to My Gaawwwd, made some nice money today in Silver. However, as to the euphoria re Gold I'm confused. It's still below where it was just a few days ago. This isn't exactly a "Bull" move, especially considering Silver's incredible one day rise.

Gold's move appears to be more a sympathy move with Silver , with weak technical strength behind it, especially when considering how far off today's high it slid. I still say, Silver, and Silver shares is the place to be, not Gold. ( SSC up 14% today, hope a few folks here were listening last week to the strong BUY recommendation from this quarter )
(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:17 - ID#431203)
Japan selling U.S. Bonds ?
"throwing in the towel" ....

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:18 - ID#335190)
Neophyte @ 14:14
Your post has stated my position exactly. Although, I cashed out.

I am also, cautiously optimistic about gold. Take Care eh!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:19 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.83

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:21 - ID#288156)
"Let them eat cake"...90's style....
Let them eat cake?
from the Economist: Finance and Economics
Run, run, run
Asias financial crises is under control, say the central bankers. But in Hong Kong, still shaking from last months stockmarket crash, the evidence points in the other direction. Panics, in fact, are becoming a bit of a habit.

On Nov 24th, a few days after the Japanese owned Yaohan department store chain in Hong Kong went bust, word hit the streets that the St. Honore Cake Shop chain was about to follow suit. Almost instantly, St. Honore faced a run on, well, cakes. Hong Kong Chinese often give cake vouchers as gifts, and thousands of recipients were desperate to redeem their vouchers before collapse rendered them worthless. Biscuits, bread, wedding cakes, anything would do as customers mobbed the bakery counters. Company officials raced to reassure anyone who would listen that the bakery would meet its obligations. Those who persisted in trying to cash in their vouchers found police officers stationed beside the empty shelves, while the staff hid in back rooms.

In Japan: "Andrew Smithers, an independent London-based economist, reckons that, taken as a whole, the life-insurance industry is

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:21 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .236

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:26 - ID#269409)
@ Steady, re your 16:50
Wow Steady, you must be studying the new math if you believe an index can fall "250%". Does that mean everyone holding Gold shares in the past few years now owes 150% more to their brokerage houses than what they originally paid for their shares?

Mr. Mick
(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:31 - ID#345321)
Need Predictions for January 2nd,1998 - HELP!!!!
...for the Dow, Gold, and Silver. Any help is appreciated.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:37 - ID#344225)
@ Mr Mick
My predictions for Jan 2, 1998:

DOW 6185
Gold 320
Silver 6.15

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:41 - ID#333131)
Moody's lowers South Korea Forex ratings

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:44 - ID#335190)
December 10, 1997

Silver prices soar, oil drops sharply

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Silver prices soared to the highest level in 2-1/2 years Wednesday as speculators and industrial users rushed to buy amid the lowest level of warehouse stocks for the metal in a dozen years. Gold also bounced higher after falling to 18-year lows Tuesday.

COMEX warehouse silver stocks fell a further 564,012 ounces in Tuesday's data to 124,135,001 ounces, a new 12-year low.

The gap between newly refined silver supplies and fabrication demand widened to 197.8 million ounces last year, and another supply deficit is expected this year, said Ted Kempf, an analyst with New York-based industry consultants CPM Group.

"Silver's gains reflect on the ongoing supply/demand deficit, which is now in its eighth year, and is resulting in a drawdown of world inventories," Kempf said. "Deliverable silver is getting harder to find, resulting in a premium in London over New York prices, and the silver forward price curve has swung into backwardation, something that has not happened on a sustained basis since 1980," he said.

"Backwardation" is a market price structure in which prices of a commodity for immediate delivery are higher than prices for delivery in the future.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:52 - ID#201238)
comex data

Comex warehouse gold stocks FELL 750 oz to 676,559 oz. Eligible stocks are at 166,405 oz.

Comex warehouse silver stocks rose 92,877 oz to 124,227,878 oz today.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:53 - ID#288156)
What they said before they had to get into the boats....
Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
before the Institute of International Bankers
Washington, D.C.
March 4, 1996

...A domestic bank failure triggered international worries -- and an
international solution ultimately resolved the domestic failure. The
circle closed. The FDIC learned a number of lessons from the
Franklin failure -- and one was that the U.S. banking system can
benefit if foreign banks or their U.S. subsidiaries are a part of efforts
to resolve problems and crises.
The greater lesson was also clear: we are all in this together --
or, as the former head of state of Canada once put it, we may be in
different boats, but we are all afloat on the same lake.
We here today come from many different boats, but all those
boats are affected in some measure by the same winds, currents and

Yes indeedy, and a couple of the boats are taking on water...and it looks like a noreaster is blowing up...

Richard Burke
(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:55 - ID#411318)
Al: yesterday FSR moved above its exp. MA and 20 day MA and today moved above its upper Bollinger Band - all very positive. I hold a position, and think very highly of the management. They have production and reserves. I have known the President, Tim Ryan, for almost thirty years and can tell you that he is honest and a good businessman. I have no connectio with the company other than as a modest shareholder.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 17:57 - ID#333131)
SDRer, What the heck are they talking about? IMF considers "short term financing facilities"

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:00 - ID#250251)
CNBC Talking heads
All:-- CNBC guest speaker trashes Gold as an investment, "worst thing you can buy right now" reply to investors telephone enquiry.
These guys think todays run up is just a fools rally anyone agree?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:00 - ID#318123)
An analyst on CNBC stated todays action in banking stocks were down due to their exposure in the Asian markets. Stated Citi Bank holds approximately 30 billion in non-performing loans in the that area of the world, he also stated due to the lackluster disclosure by the bank officials it will come back to haunt them soonly!! Silver stock UKH ( United Keno Hill ) halted today up .39 to .90 Cdn. on 100k. The company submitted a news release shortly after the halt that stated it was'nt quite sure why the increased interest. UKH holds 17,000,000 ozs of Silver proven, could that be the reason??

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:01 - ID#26793)
That is IMF-The Money Store Division. Phil Rizzuto will handle all the paperwork. ( I hope that is not just a local joke )

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:02 - ID#31868)
Do you think Mr. Camdesuss will be vacationing in Korea this year?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:10 - ID#364147)
@ Home alone...................
Hey Nailz who ya callin an ole buzzard---

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:16 - ID#26793)
@Charles Keeling
I will quibble with your silver prediction of 6.15. Here is why. We have just had a dramatic change in the silver/gold ratio dropping from 57 down to 48 today. Your prediction shows a ratio of 52 which would indicate a reversal in that change. I agree with your gold 320 and with your Dow because it gives a Dow/Gold Ratio of 19. That is a 33% drop which it what we had in 1929. So I am predicting silver at $6.95 on January 2nd to give a silver/gold ratio of 46.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:16 - ID#364147)
@ Home Alone..............and lookin fer mischief
Go "GOLDen State".......

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:23 - ID#215208)
SSC looks sick to me
LGB - First let me admit I know almost nothing about SSC. Having said that, I looked at the charts. SSC has been acting very sickly during the recent strength in silver. Today it managed only 1/8 of a point on VOLUME OF 2.7M SHARES. Only 14% on a day that silver climbed 8%? Very bad ratio. SSC is not even back to its March highs, when silver was not nearly as high. Something looks rotten here. Careful.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:24 - ID#269409)
Jan 2 predictions...weighing in...
1/2/98,Gold $302,Silver $6.38, DOW 7440 ( unless Puetz calls for a 1/1/98 crash in which case, DOW 8200! )

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:26 - ID#7568)

One of the things to understand about the current silver rally is the effect that options will have on the price. Many options writers, are purely volatility players. They attempt to make money by keeping a hedge in the underlying instrument against the option position that they have written. If the underlying instrument goes their way the hedges will diminish until zero. Conversely, if the underlying instrument goes against their options position they will add to their hedge. This is currently occuring for those who were unfortunate enough to have written silver calls. As the price of the underlying instrument increases the size of the hedge also must increase until it is one for one with the underlying. This 'delta' hedging can and will lead to a self reinforcing trend until such time as the options either expire or are exercised by the owners. With huge quantities of outstanding options in the 6-7 dollar range we could see very illiquid markets as the hedgers are forced to come in and buy.

A second intriguing point centers around the new year. Hedge fund managers, ourselves included, are paid incentive compensation on a quarterly basis. Some percentage of the profits of the fund are remitted to the fund managers as compensation. Profits are booked continuously as positions are marked to the market every day. I have no idea which funds are behind the current squeeze, but put yourself in their shoes. You own a huge position in silver which no doubt is contributing mightily to your P/L. If silver goes higher between now and the new year so does your compensation. If you blow out your position at these prices, surely your activity in the market is going to lower the price as your gains are realized. This will however have the effect of lowering your compensation.

While this compensation feature will not be the overriding concern determining what happens in this squeeze, it may however push the scales a little. A little window dressing could add a little more fuel to what is already a raging inferno.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:30 - ID#269409)
@ DJ, re SSC...
How can you call it sick or weak when it gains 14% in one day? "Relative" weakness is due to speculators playing on the volatility the past few weeks/months, as I admit I myself have done several times ( and telegraphed each play here in advance ) .

When the markets at large understand what is happening with Silver, the first place that "Mining share ignorant" brokers, and less savvy investors ( which will be 99% of all investors! ) put their shares will be SSC because it's the best known Silver "Blue chip". This it'll be investor mass psychology that'll drive it up, not it's basic fundamentals.

Where ELSE could you have made a 43% gain in the past few weeks since .70? Very tough to call that "sick" performance. If I can make 43% on ANY stock in a few weeks, let me at the shares I say, and let people call the performance "sick" all day!!!!!

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:33 - ID#295111)
Boris Yeltsin
Yeltsin is sick wondering how long it will take for him to croak!! I don't wish anybody to die, but his death should give gold a boost. The media will then say gold's rise was due Yeltins death as opposed to the short covering that is just around the corner and even happening righ now.

I'm trying to guess what the media will say when gold rebounds? Will they say the truth?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:38 - ID#35767)
Silver Squeeze?
People state that there is a short term silver squeeze. However, I have noticed that the lease rates are soaring across the board and not in just the 1 month or 3 month category. Perhaps there is just a plain out and out shortage and people are panicking to buy for fear they wont be able to obtain it. I would think if it were a short term squeeze the lease rate would be inverted with the highest rates near in. Am I right or wrong can anyone shed some light?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:41 - ID#431278)
I think ssc is sick also.. when silver was 5.30 last time.. ssc was at 1 1/4 now its at 5.90 and ssc is 1. When it was 5.40 ssc was 3/4..
isn't something sick about that?... I also assume its sick bacause of
Gold being down.. and the gold stock owners are draging it down..

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:42 - ID#31868)
Plain and simple. Supply and demand. This is the silver bonanza that many have been waiting for. It is here, it is real.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:47 - ID#215208)
Fool's rally?
jonboy - IMHO, there's no such thing as a fool's rally. This was a small ( but encouraging ) move that good traders would make money on. The stock I bought yesterday, VAALY is up over 11% today. This said, nearly everyone watching Kitco has been prematurely enthusiastic about gold moves during the past year ( or two ) . I've been through several, and learned from the experience. As far as I am concerned, gold is still in a very tight, very steep, downward trending channel. It will have to break 295 to clearly break out of this channel. When and if it rises to the top of this channel, I will take some profits ( maybe 30%?? ) , and wait to see what happens. If it breaks out, I will jump back in quickly. I know there is some risk in doing this. Silver has shown how quickly it can happen. But silver had reversed its trend long before the quick move up today. If the dollar weakens significantly, I will be more convinced that the bear has ended.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:48 - ID#269409)
Come now boys, if we look at the Gold shares that have been touted here the past year as great bargains, how can ANYone call SSC "sick"? Sure shares like CDE and HC made s[ectacular gains today, but look from what depths those gains were made since the time they have been "pushed" as great buys here?

You GoldBugs really ARE contrarian! You care more about strength based on technicals, than making massive gains! Must be my paperbug, Lemminglike, Moronic sheep tendencies that cause me to say "Technical Shmenichal", if I'm making 40% while you're losing 40% I could care less what the damned metals price to share price ratio is!!

Timing gents... timing....

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:49 - ID#288155)
Carl, the IMF wasn't issued a boat...
When the swap lines were redone, they ended
up with the "Pool of Words" as their lone asset. There is a
rumor ( as yet unfounded ) that they assessed a levy of
one oar from each boat. But, as I said, that's just a rumor.
Don't worry 'bout 'em Carl. They got a lotta mighty fine talkers.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:52 - ID#364147)
@ Home Alone...........................................
Hey ROR----I can't shed no light but I sure can rock-N-roll......Forgot,what was the question?? Redskins suk~~~~~~~~ but not gold....

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:54 - ID#33180)
I miss our old cheerleader
Byron: Were it not for the registration requirement, which is probably making it impossible for you to post at the library, I suspect you would have been whooping and hollering for joy today on Kitco, just like old times. Just want you to know you are missed, and I hope you are still lurking.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:56 - ID#364147)
@ Don't wanna-B a party pooper but .................
I'm just a simple-minded hick but ain't it a little EARLY to start callin a bottom for gold????????? after a ONE day rise-----Christ some were callin the bottom after an hour of trading this mornin~~~~~~maybe I'm missin somethin and will retreat back to 'my' charts......

Dave in CO
(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:57 - ID#215211)
If I'm not mistaken, CDE and HL produce quite a bit of gold, so that might explain their recent precipitious drops.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 18:59 - ID#333131)
Phil Rizzuto went by me I'm afraid. By the way, what's this "A" business with you and SDRer? Is Bart grading people?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:03 - ID#269409)
@ ROR ..Silver squeeze
With Comex inventory shrinking yet another Half million+ ounces today, another shortfall of 200 million+ ounces in the works in the coming year ( projected ) , and far less than 200 million in total Comex inventory, how can it possibly be short term shortage?

Caveats are, production will be a lot higher in 98, Silver consumtion will likely fall due to worldwide recession ( or at least slowing of growth ) , and RJ's looming prediction that a big uncounted stopckpile may be sitting here and there.

Seems like rewards outweigh the risks by a pretty good margin here, even if the numbers end up being "off". Silver/Silver shares are a FAR better risk/reward ratio than with Gold/Gold shares in my view, no matter what your investment/monetary philosophy is. After all, even in a total world financial meltdown, Silver will still hold it's own or better, relative to Gold.

If you believe the scenarios of the truly pessimistic paranois GoldBug Diehards, that all paper will collapse ( a view which I of course do not subscribe to ) , and that only hard letal money will have genuine value/safety, wouldn't you rather exchange a Silver Half dollar for a loaf of bread, than try and get them to make change with a Maple Leaf????

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:04 - ID#426220)
SOMETHING IS AFOOT! Wednesdays trading saw 35 of the worlds 45 largest Stock Exchanges are awash in RED... and those few that are up, barely eked out small gains. We are talking down markets in ALL the Americas, Europe, Asian & Pacific countries, Africa and the Middle-East... vivid testament to the worsening Domino Effect gripping the entire globe.

Just by extending massive loans to Asian Banks, the IMF IS NOT ADDRESSING THE ESSENCE OF THE PROBLEM: Which is simply that the borrowers cannot repay their debts! UNFORTUNATELY, ASIAN Debtors bit off more than they can chew financially.

It doesn't take a double Ph.D. in Mathematics AND Finance to understand the ludicrous folly of the Asian Banking Debacle looming on the horizon of the Land of the SETTING Sun... and the horrific ramifications which inevitably will ensue.

THIS is the LATEST analysis of the Asian Banking Domino Effect by John Kutyn -

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:06 - ID#228128)
ASM and lease rates
ASM took a nice pop of .99c to 2.69 and is still lagging behind the current upswing in the price of silver. A nice move none-the-less. I own it and I'm biased. I like it for the long haul. Those reserves counted by SSRIF and PAASF that are located in Russia will never be mined in our lifetimes. Lease rates jumped again to 7.5% 1-month and 8.09% 1-year. Forward rates are -1.5% 1-month and -2.00% 1-year. Anyone remember extremes such as this?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:08 - ID#215208)
It's still sick
LGB - I said it was sick. I didn't say you couldn't make money on it. Sick isn't necessarily bad, if you are a trader. It generally means increased volitility. However, if you are an investor, that's different. A 14% move on an 8% move in the metal seems sick to me. A 1/8 point move on 2.7M volume to me means that some one with inside knowledge and lots of stock is selling into the buying interest. A few days ago, SSC actually went down on a nice up day for silver. Also with high volume.

I don't and haven't owned SSC, so I'm just an objective observer. Take it for what its worth.

BTW, most gold stocks made a 5-6% today on a 1.5% move in gold. Some twice that. This indicates that gold stocks are WAY oversold, as the normal ratio is about 3, I understand.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:11 - ID#372180)
Agree with Ted
I must agree with Ted.

As I look at my charts I'm still not getting that signal to buy. I was however, stopped out this morning on my short positions. My trading method works better when working with local ( weekly ) swings that lie within monthly extremes. I've never been able to pick market bottoms or tops.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:17 - ID#402251)
Silver looks good,like a good metal should,

But what about gold,with it's relations of old?

Is it truly de-linked,never to be in sync,

Just a blip on the radar,is that what we think?

RJ says down,the numbers say up,

Karlita is short,while I fill my cup.

On gold!..On silver! Kitco's machine,

Gold in the background,gold in the GREEN.

Will it hold,will it hold...or go vertical instead,

One day does not a trend make,according to Ted.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:20 - ID#401460)
Get ready to RUMBLE!!
We are having fun now. Boy the real stuff is pretty - went out and got some liberty/eagles and leafs today. Didn't get there soon enough, they ran out of eagles and I couldn't get as many as I wanted. My wife wants me to make her a necklace - it's a start, may start a trend in jewelry that will spread aroud the world. Well we have to create demand ayway we can right?

A dead cat bounce in Gold? Maybe, but I doubt it, there is to much negative news. The only thing that CNBC had positive to talk about today was Gold and Silver 's move up.

Things are in motion now. But what do I know?
MSFT 140 or 70 / share, and I don't mean a split. Maybe Bill and the hitech people did buy Gold. Who are the share holders of RYO?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:22 - ID#189273)
Oil meeting in Iran
This meeting is intriguing. What are they ostensibly up to over there? OPEC just raised those daily sales amounts, so it seems their business should be concluded for awhile. Don't use my curiousity as an indicator of "the great unwashed" getting interested in metals, by the way. Been trading metals for 17 years, just never saw your group before.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:22 - ID#364147)
@ 'Holy Cow' the Scooter
Carl: Phil Rizzuto--The Money Store---holy cow! Dave in Co. ( CDE does produce alotta gold ) .......

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:25 - ID#288155)
Allen@16:33, New metal: My friend, I'm having 'control' problems
with the metals I 'have'! ( I did buy my first "gold to hold in my
hands" yesterday tho...all of you, plus Auric and Goose talking
about actually holding it, convinced me to stop "waiting for the
bottom" and take the Leap!

Tolerant1@18:02, Camdessus vaction--I'm concerned that the poor man
will get a chilly reception in West Palm Beach, let alone Korea!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:28 - ID#316193)
Make your own assessment of world mentallity....
On an unnamed thread tonight, I read, "I never understood why gold was so
expensive in the first place. There seems to be plenty around and a good
bit is produced as a byproduct of other types of mining activities. The
cost seems to be overstated also. If they would produce gold back in the
seventies when it traded around 100 an ounce they can probably weather a
little more on the downside in price. If it wasn't for jewelery we
wouldn't need it at all ....."

Bliss? Ignorance? I still don't believe I read this.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:28 - ID#364147)
@ The Money Store ain't what it used ta be
'Scooter' ( God bless em ) was replaced by Jim ( underwear commercials ) Palmer--the world is truly goin ta now the 'dream ( nightmare ) team' is back.....

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:31 - ID#426220)

It was announced today IN WASHINGTON ( CBS.MW ) THAT JAPANESE INVESTORS have already started unloading their vast horde of U.S. TREASURIES... can it be hard to conclude their money will now flow into GOLD?!

Dec 5 - TOKYO:
Per Shuji Karasawa of the Japanese parliament: Japanese gold holdings are far too low

Dec 5 - TOKYO:
Per Head of Japanese LDP: US Dollar dependence too great, we need more gold to offset excessive Dollar dependence.

Financial Fairy-tale or Expedient Global Monetary Necessity: Global Gold Standard?! STARTLING IMF data demonstrate its feasibility. BOJs T-Bond holdings is the keystone for success. Japan would need to buy many tonnes of GOLD. EMU member participation essential.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:32 - ID#215208)
LGB - Just to make it clear, I'm not trying to start a war with you. You are a trader and seem to know what you're doing. ( Damn - I wish I had some of that 70 cent SSC ) . My comments were for others that might be looking at SSC as a long term investment.

P.S. - Keep the tips coming!

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:32 - ID#287367)
You didn't lose anything but an opportunity. ABX was contained today by the downtrend line ( formed by connecting the early November high at $21 and 11/18's high at 18 15/16 ) today at 16 1/8; and by its 10-day moving average, today at 16 3/16. MACD will be giving a buy signal soon. RSI was oversold @ under 20 yesterday, and gave a buy signal today by crossing up above 20. Stochastics, also oversold, gave a buy signal today as %F is leading %S from under 20 to over 20. If ABX surpasses 16 1/8 tomorrow, crossing above its 10-day moving average, tech-oriented funds are going to purchase ABX by the carload. Put in your order to buy shares "at the market" before the market opens. I expect a run to at least $19 to $21 per share in the near term. No guarantees, just my opinion. {:- ) }

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:33 - ID#238422)

What about RYO? Please specify your question. Thank you.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:34 - ID#376309)
Today's move up in Gold and Gold stocks felt right. I'm not sure how long it will last but I'm playing it until it proves to me it's not the real thing. A close below yesterday's low would prove this is not it.Until then?????

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:36 - ID#255151)
January 2, 1998

I'll jump in--Gold 3-1-0, Silver 6-2-5, Dow 7800. Also, I predict I will turn 30 on that date, for the 16th year in a row. ( I could be imagining things, but my Maple Leaf looks even more radiant today )

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:39 - ID#93232)
It is wonderful to hold gold...When my first coins came, I opened one of the plastic canisters to inspect. I was in the breakfast room where the sunlight comes in directly...the sun reflected off the coin to my was as if a golden flame had shot forth from it. Now I know why it is considered is not of this world.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:42 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Insanity
Our premier ( Mac somethin ) came out today and said no way to gold mining in Cape Breton but he is goin ta Ottawa tomorrow ta talk to the 'big chief' about gettin the money to open up another high sulpher coal mine in Donkin,which just happens to be one of the most spectacular oceanfront areas in Cape Breton....and one of MY favorite ( Cape Pearce ) hiking areas.....SICK!.....The RAPE of the envireoment continues unabated in Cape Breton but thank god they got the sense ( ??? ) ta keep out those wicked gold miners-----by the way the premier ( snicker snicker ) is from Sydney the proud home of the Sydney Tar ponds ( the worst TOXIC waste site in all of Canada ) that currently flows right right into Sydney harbor ( how ) ....UNTREATED....The fish ( Cod ) are all gone anyway soon ta be followed by the lobsters----rape + plunder....and then blame 'it' on Ottawa....neat the land of up=down....back to the charts----ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:45 - ID#284255)
goind down - all aboard.
Tells a strong story.
And the expanding nature of these indicators with rising volume?

( :O}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:45 - ID#215208)
Where's OZ
Nicks - Get up, you bums! Get with it, its your shift. We are all counting on you for at least another $3 in gold and another 30 cents in silver. Better get started, time's a wastin'.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:48 - ID#26793)
It has been 65 years since gold was used as money. Even I don't remember it as such; I only remember silver. Until now it did not seem to matter to those who were used to paper money and that is true in every country in the world. They are learning it now in Asia and will learn it here soon. The paper game is over.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:49 - ID#364147)
and the party continues
Feb. Gold up 1.50 @ 290.10~~~~~~~~~~~~almost said Dec. but I'm quick.....

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:49 - ID#173274)
@the scene
EBN shows gold up 1.07 and silver up 15 cents to 6.05. VERY NICE! HAR! Let's all have another nice day!
(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:49 - ID#432137)
U.S. Stock Market Crash Due Now
re-copy of posting, of 9/27/97:

"When the 'tent' collapses

it will not be the 'center-post'

that goes first;

it will be the 'side-posts',

and even the 'stakes'.

For, as 'Asian Tigers'

shake, shudder, & quake:

shedding their fur...

while they still feign to demure.

Just when a cold wind,

begins to blow in;

as 'indian-summer' - too long

holding on;

with wishful thinking, all a-long.

The markets can no longer avoid nor hide,

the Yuppie-Kingdom's crumbling, & cry;

as winter's clearing cold and rain,

clean us all, and clear-out, even -

all our grains !

And some day in the future,

all will be clear;

while now, every stock market around

will 'tear', and give ground.

And gold and silver too

will NOW move on,

and move up;

at least for a year."

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:49 - ID#194311)
scary vision have I...DOW gets walloped tomorrow
NZ, AUS, JAP markets off...momemtum gathering all in sync
South Koreans rioting on the streets for Christmas.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:50 - ID#287367)
@Sharkfin ;-)
Gold up another $1.50 and silver up another dime since COMEX close. Ain't life grand!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:50 - ID#255284)
TED G'day mate
just snuck home for a quick lunch -- back later -- playin' the predicting game are we?
JTF you mean you can post and work?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:52 - ID#35767)
Quit harpin on My Redskins. Not only are the "skins" gonna kick Giant Butt the Wizards are gonna kick Knick butt at the knew and superior internationally renowned and much lauded chi chi MCI Arena. The Giants have about as much chance of beatin my Skins , if they meet agin, as you do of winnin that worthless paper money at that there Sheraton Casino in Sydney.

The Clintons and their new dog, them there is fine folk in dont ya fergit it son. In fact all dem people in Washington is fine persons dont cha think.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:52 - ID#29082)
@keeping score
From today's action in silver mining stocks:

SSC + 14.29%
FSR + 13.28%
PAASF+ 10.67%
SIL + 7.18%
SSRIF+ 6.06%
SSO + 5.17%

Source: Pointcast news retrieval

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:52 - ID#215208)
Speak of the devil, and he appears!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:52 - ID#333131)
Silver being quoted at $6.04 bid

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:54 - ID#356304)
What is ebn? Thanks

(Wed Dec 10 1997 19:58 - ID#194311)
silver foxes...out of the boxes
and running free
for all to see
a vision of wealth
showing the bold
be not sold in gold.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:00 - ID#287367)
Re: Yours of 19:48, Amen, brother. I'm sitting here admiring my "brilliant uncirculated" Morgan dollars. Maybe later I'll celebrate by throwing my "junk silver" in the air like confetti. Go Silver!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:00 - ID#26793)
Phil Rizzuto is a well known ball player from the 50's. He is doing commercials for a quick loan outfit in this area called "The Money Store"
The "A" business is the way you get branded when you screw up your first password attempt, or I guess two persons with the same name. If another Carl asks for a password he will be Carl A, the next Carl B. You are stuck with plain old Carl.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:00 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Spot prices, updated every 15 minutes. Just another source.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:00 - ID#31868)
Try silver or gold ear plugs for those piiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnngs! It was killin me till I tried em. They are getting god awful loud but they are going to get louder still.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:02 - ID#285233)
Silver still going!!
LGB - obviously, my 16:50 post should have read...XAU down 60%......

Silver up 14 cents!!!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:02 - ID#364147)
ROR- Dem are fight-N words and the 'Skins' don't have them 'Hogs' no more
ROR: Saturday you will eat them words buddy.....Re-The Clintons--They are both pieces of GARBAGE and a contributing factor to my leaving the U.S. of A.......What a disgrace to have Bubba be the first to represent my generation ( the Beat-nics ) .....but living in CB I've come to the conclusion that everything ( sh!t,I'm another Einstein ) is relative and even 'Bubba + the 'bitch' are startin ta look goooood compared to the MORONS runnin things around this place where up=down.....What happened here???

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:03 - ID#194311)
Hong Kong
What's the bet it gets HIT tonight?
Better than even I'd say.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:07 - ID#364147)
Is the rally losin steam already??
Feb. Gold now only up .80~~~~~~~~~~go team gold!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:07 - ID#348286)
@Markets & Gold
Korea down 3.85% in the first 15 mins.
In general, equities are scraping the top and Gold is scraping the bottom.
So we may hit another high on the Dow and Gold may yet hit another bottom, but this cycle is getting old and tired.
The risk/reward difference between the two investments is crystal clear to me at this point.
The only missing ingredient, is desire by the public to hold PM's.........

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:08 - ID#194311)
pent up demand for silver perhaps?
What ever this backwardation is, it does it for me.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:08 - ID#24095)
@ Hi Ho Silver Away...
At this hour..folks...March spot silver ( SI8H ) is headed for 6.10...
Hecla Mining to 6 tomorrow???

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:12 - ID#31868)
this is getting pathetic
Wednesday December 10, 7:14 pm Eastern Time

World Bank private sector arm to help Korean banks

By Adam Entous

WASHINGTON, Dec 10 ( Reuters ) - The World Bank's private sector arm said on Wednesday it was ready to offer loans to South Korean banks and institutions hit by the economic crisis, although there had not yet been formal requests for help.

Officials from the International Finance Corporation ( IFC ) said Korean firms facing liquidity problems were expected to make requests in the coming weeks, and the IFC would respond quickly.

``We are getting ready to mobilize the funds,'' said Kumiko Yoshinari, the IFC's East Asia capital markets manager. ``We will be responding to requests for equity and loans from private sector banks and companies.''

She said private sector firms in much of Asia were now increasingly looking for IFC help.

``There's a sharp increase in demand from the region,'' Yoshinari said. ``We are looking quite aggressively at the possibilities.''

The IFC, charged with helping to finance private sector projects in developing countries, had scaled back its involvement with companies in South Korea sharply because the then-booming firms no longer needed help attracting investors.

South Korea itself, the world's 11th biggest economy, graduated from World Bank assistance programs at the end of 1994.

But Seoul sought help from international financial institutions last month and won a record-breaking $57 billion international bailout.

The package, engineered by the International Monetary Fund, came with prescriptions of lower growth, higher interest rates and a restructuring deal for ailing banks. The World Bank is also making large sums available.

Analysts said the tough terms attached to the IMF program would hasten the demise of already shaky financial institutions. On Wednesday, the government suspended the business operations of five merchant banks until Jan. 31. Nine other merchant banks were temporarily closed last week.

IFC officials said they did not know how much money the corporation would make available in long-term loans to banks and companies in South Korea facing liquidity problems. But the figure could run to hundreds of millions of dollars in the coming months.

The IFC has also sent delegations to the Philippines and Malaysia to talk to company officials there. In Indonesia, it is negotiating loans to aid banks and other companies following the devaluation of that country's currency.

The IFC returned to Malaysia with offers of assistance after its currency, the ringgit, crumbled earlier this year.

``A World Bank role here would be a good thing, a useful adjunct to IMF and bilateral lending,'' said Greg Mastel, senior international economist at the Economic Strategy Institute, a Washington-based think tank.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:12 - ID#26793)
Cayman Island bank failure; favored depositors tipped off and withdrew early

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:14 - ID#24095)
@ spot silver
As we silver going to 6.12. When's the last time we saw that?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:15 - ID#348286)
@ECO - Echo Bay
Any comments on Echo Bay, what percentage of their mining is silver related?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:15 - ID#316193)
Donald, that may be part of the problem...
I am 66 so never had the chance to use gold for money, and not many left
that can say they ever did. Silver, like you, yes. As I said, maybe
this is part of the problem.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:24 - ID#31868)
Wednesday December 10, 8:01 pm Eastern Time

Bank of Korea chief offers to resign- Yonhap TV

SEOUL, Dec 11 ( Reuters ) - The central Bank of Korea Governor Lee Kyung-shick has offered to resign to take responsibility for South Korea's economic crisis, Yonhap Television News reported on Thursday.

The report could not immediately be confirmed.

South Korea has agreed to a record-breaking $57 billion loan package from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) , which came with a number of tough terms to overhaul the debt-laden economy.

The central bank was embarrassed earlier this week when details of its official reserves were made public in a leak of a confidential IMF report to its board.

The report said the central bank's usable reserves had dwindled to just $6 billion on December 2 -- or about two weeks of import cover -- and that it had deposited more than $17 billion of official reserves in overseas branches of commercial banks to pay off their short-term debt.

Under the IMF package, South Korea agreed to cut economic growth and fiscal spending, raise tax rates and tolerate higher interest rates to cap inflation, altogether leading to rises in jobless rates.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:24 - ID#26793)
Senior Chinese official says failure of a state bank is "unthinkable"

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:28 - ID#261269)
Silver ... WOW
While I have been catching up on the postings ... for the last 30 minutes, Silver has gone from up 11 cents to up 25 cents ...Gold back in the Green also...Goooooo!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:30 - ID#388434)
Hey, it's not time to celebrate yet
The optimism here seems to be running rampant tonight. Gold is testing the 280 support, and if it should drop through shortly and solidly ( within a week if it's gonna do it ) , then sub-$200 gold is a distinct possibility. The opportunity for all of us goldbugs remains, but I wouldn't bet the farm at this juncture. Keep waiting and watching.

Meanwhile, I have a fun file ( 10K ) for your enjoyment. I laughed so hard I nearly fell off my seat. Enjoy . . .

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:31 - ID#284255)
kudos to the winner?
Crystal Ball
It does look very promising.
But we ain't seen nothin yet.

Since we are all playing the guessing game.
Dow below 6000
Silver up over 6.50
And my precious down to new lows.
Before Xmas.
Just guessing.

On my swing chart the 10 day M/A has just crossed over.
The real selling is now to begin.

"One day we will go to sleep as the world is now. And when we awaken, it will have changed in a manner that will never be the same."
John Kutyn

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:32 - ID#194311)
Have you noticed that China has become very adept at releasing "suprisingly open and frank" news about how bad things might become exactly when the crisis begin to accelerate.

My take is that they are are behind some of what is going on and probably are buying silver hand over fist right now. Meanwhile taking on ever more paper debt which they never intend to repay but will use to buy up PHYSICAL goods.

They have found the achilles heel to capitalism and it is the trust in the markets continuity. Clinton's policy of "active engagement" is probably the biggest blunder this century. Yankees maybe hugging a panda BEAR who is really not that cuddly.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:35 - ID#228217)
If you are long silver, keep tight stops. Go to for Commercial short positions. Skyhigh and going higher.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:37 - ID#240142)
BMG and ASL have penetrated their 200 day moving averages today. ABX and NEM are lagging.Lotta room on the upside if gold gets goin'. $6+ SSC actually makes money. You'll be looking smart if Silver stays up here. But hey, isn't SSC marginable?Why do you slight your gains?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:38 - ID#24095)
@Long John Silver
Silver going to can happen!

Gusto Oro
(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:42 - ID#377235)
Crystal Ball
When I throw my scrap plate silver in the air like confetti it comes back to haunt me.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:44 - ID#424345)
Silver Endgame
D.A.: Just out of curiosity, how do you see them resolving the 200+ gap between silver supply and demand next year???? That is. just where in the heck are they going to find the stuff??

With palladium it was the Russians being more productive. With zinc there are a number of rich mines that could be mobilized.

But what about silver?? True, cost and the "asian flu" will cut down demand somewhat but supply will also be suffering with all those gold mines also closing down.

Where is the rabbit in the hat for this trick?? U.S. strategic stock piles?? ( some time in the spring ) Where is the cavalry???

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:49 - ID#424345)
Silver Endgame
D.A.: Just out of curiosity, how do you see them resolving the 200+ gap between silver supply and demand next year???? That is. just where in the heck are they going to find the stuff??

With palladium it was the Russians being more productive. With zinc there are a number of rich mines that could be mobilized.

But what about silver?? True, cost and the "asian flu" will cut down demand somewhat but supply will also be suffering with all those gold mines also closing down.

Where is the rabbit in the hat for this trick?? U.S. strategic stock piles?? ( some time in the spring ) Where is the cavalry???

Gusto Oro
(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:51 - ID#377235)
Asia down...
KOREA DOWN 5.85% Other Asian markets weak.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:51 - ID#26793)
Silver/Gold Ratio
It is at 46 right now. Improved by 2 points since the NY close. It will be 16:1 by US morning at this rate. Brace yourselves for a serious retracement somewhere along the way.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:55 - ID#284255)
how low can you go?
Chartist sees sell-off before HSI rebound
The market may need another cathartic sell-off before a sustainable rally unfolds, or so say the charts.
Under the most likely scenario, Chris Roberts, regional technical analyst at HSBC James Capel, sees the Hang Seng Index falling to below 8,776 points, then hitting a new high.
There is a more bearish possibility, however.
"If a new low is registered, it will most likely only complete the first leg of a larger bear market,"
In a secular downtrend, the bear market cycles are more powerful and last longer than the bull phases, which do not take the index to new highs.
In a worst case scenario, a break below that channel could take the index to a low of 3,200, a decline of 81 per cent from the monthly peak of 16,820,

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:56 - ID#298259)
As of 8:51pm NIKKEI down 229.57 ( 1.39% ) - near its daily bottom.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 20:58 - ID#424345)
Silver Endgame
Whoops!! 200+ should read 200+ million ounzes. ( smack, smack... )

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:01 - ID#316193)
Read "squeeze" and love it....

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:03 - ID#372344)
I believe the CB'S are going to have to bite the Big SILVER BULLET!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:04 - ID#35767)
The lease rates are skyrocketing the fact that the price isnt falling indicates that there must not be any to lend. Lets face it at 8.63% lending silver beats the hell out of treasuries. If the supply were there versus the demand then one would logically think that the silver would be loaned and the price would fall. Consider silver is a by product of gold so the gold mine shut downs are going to reduce the supply even more. Could Fuji and Kodak be becoming worried. Those digital cameras are a long way off from being afforded in Camera happy Asia. What if Kodak and Fuji are becoming concerned over the long term supply. If so silver will have to adlust to and stay at a price for a long time where it is profitable to produce on a mass scale. God forbid, in the meantime, any investors take any of the supply.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:04 - ID#372344)
I believe the CB'S are going to have to bite the Big SILVER BULLET!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:09 - ID#284255)
how low can it go?
Look at Hong Kong down -435
In the first few minutes of trading.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:10 - ID#284255)
how low can it go?
Look at Hong Kong down -435
In the first few minutes of trading.

Gusto Oro
(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:11 - ID#377235)
Dow to fall...
LGB you were the one excoriating the stock market bears here for not believing in new all-time highs, how can you now claim a Dow of 7440 to begin the new year? That level in January would be a bearish development.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:12 - ID#426220)
DINES LATEST ON GOLD ( December 10, 1997 )

Internationally acclaimed newsletter editor, James Dines, shares his LATEST ON GOLD. Additionally, he calls attention to two of his favorite precious metals stocks: Agnico-Eagle and Stillwater Mining - both are hot-wired to their charts, just CLICK the name. It is also obvious analyst Dines cottons to silver:

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:12 - ID#298259)
Hang Seng
Hong Kong Hang Seng 9:08PM 10,519.42 -502.99 ( -4.56% ) .
Ready to retest 10,000?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:17 - ID#267276)
This afternoon after closing, CNBC had a bank anlayst on. He said Citibank had a $40-$60 Billion exposure in troubled asia.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:20 - ID#267276)
This afternoon after closing, CNBC had a bank anlayst on. He said Citibank had a $40-$60 Billion exposure in troubled asia.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:27 - ID#401237)
Echo Bay: They use to produce a lot of Silver, however new mines appear to be Gold only. It is hard to tell what their production cost is from what I have right here, somewhere between $220-225/ oz "operating cost" Two new mines - "total production costs" $320-325/oz. 01/14/97
"Our cash operating cost target $265-$275/ oz of Gold." 1996 Annual Report

They use Gold and Silver put and call options to hedge,

1996 Production:
Silver 7,102,348 ozs.
Gold 768,919 ozs.

1996 Ore Reserves:
Silver 53,858,000 ozs.
Gold 8,573,000 ozs.

Information from ECO 1996 Annual Report


(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:31 - ID#335190)
December 10, 1997
Japan govt faces no-confidence vote over economy

TOKYO, Dec 11 ( Reuters ) - Japan's main opposition Shinshinto ( New Frontier Party ) will submit to parliament a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's government on Thursday, a party spokesman said.

Shinshinto accuses Hashimoto's cabinet of failing to properly deal with the current financial turmoil and prolonged economic slump. "The Hashimoto cabinet must take the blame for the failure," a Shinshinto official said.

Two other opposition parties -- Taiyoto ( Sun Party ) and Democratic Party -- are joining forces with Shinshinto in trying to topple the government.
The Lower House of parliament is expected to vote on the motion later on Thursday. Hashimoto is expected to win easily because of the majority held by his Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) and its allies. Parliamentarians and political pundits called Shinshinto's move a "symbolic political gesture" through which it hoped to lure voter support.

Shinshinto, whose leader Ichiro Ozawa is a noted strategist, has been plagued by a string of defections and an internal power struggle.
It is to hold a leadership election later this month.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:32 - ID#255190)

STEADY@16:54 gold short covering threshold? I do not know. But we will know it when we see it, eh? Like a rocket!

SDRer@19:25 Re: Vanadium just a new technique, new to me. Probably just a research item for now. Hope you abode isn't sagging down on one side from your metal storage ;- )

Arden@17:52 Comex numbers. Thanks from all of us big guy! Just pathetic isn't it? Well, we have our silver rally underway now though. Did eligible on gold drop more than 750 oz??

Leland@19:28 Re: gold and why its so expensive and useless. Ignorance truly is the ninth wonder of the world these days, no? We live in the warming pot, slowly cooked but never feeling it.

LGB - Pessimistic paranoid goldbugs? Who ARE you talking about? Oh, maybe the Koreans who had gold instead of their fast worthless Won? Maybe the Chinese who have seen it all before many times? Possibly the Mexicans who got taken to the cleaners in '95? No, no. That's right it was the Russians, no wait a minute - Oh, I'm getting SOOO confused! One thing I know you WILL agree "It will never be US ( A ) will it?". As regards silver coin: Always must keep balancing the little piles to ensure no undue exposure. I'm appreciating the silver pile helping out on the gold pile and anticipating visa versa sometime. My line is 3 to 5 years. Sooner would bee nice but not necessary. Just jazzing ya a bit. I know you've got a good head on your shoulders. That will work well enough in a typical environment. Just keep a little paranoia on yer side like Andy Grove says, "its useful".

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:32 - ID#255190)

STEADY@16:54 gold short covering threshold? I do not know. But we will know it when we see it, eh? Like a rocket!

SDRer@19:25 Re: Vanadium just a new technique, new to me. Probably just a research item for now. Hope you abode isn't sagging down on one side from your metal storage ;- )

Arden@17:52 Comex numbers. Thanks from all of us big guy! Just pathetic isn't it? Well, we have our silver rally underway now though. Did eligible on gold drop more than 750 oz??

Leland@19:28 Re: gold and why its so expensive and useless. Ignorance truly is the ninth wonder of the world these days, no? We live in the warming pot, slowly cooked but never feeling it.

LGB - Pessimistic paranoid goldbugs? Who ARE you talking about? Oh, maybe the Koreans who had gold instead of their fast worthless Won? Maybe the Chinese who have seen it all before many times? Possibly the Mexicans who got taken to the cleaners in '95? No, no. That's right it was the Russians, no wait a minute - Oh, I'm getting SOOO confused! One thing I know you WILL agree "It will never be US ( A ) will it?". As regards silver coin: Always must keep balancing the little piles to ensure no undue exposure. I'm appreciating the silver pile helping out on the gold pile and anticipating visa versa sometime. My line is 3 to 5 years. Sooner would bee nice but not necessary. Just jazzing ya a bit. I know you've got a good head on your shoulders. That will work well enough in a typical environment. Just keep a little paranoia on yer side like Andy Grove says, "its useful".

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:38 - ID#23782)
Echo Bay noted that the write-down puts its gold mines in a position to weather a prolonged period of low gold prices. All four mines continue to perform well, and further improvements are anticipated. The Round Mountain mine approved a new mining plan in the third quarter that increases cash flow and profitability and reduces cash operating costs. At McCoy/Cove, additional mineralization has been discovered just outside the Cove open pit that has the potential of adding to production and extending mine life. Lupin has introduced new mining and blasting methods at depth that make deeper levels economic, potentially adding 2-3 additional years at current production rates. At Kettle River, positive exploration results along extensions of two ore bodies indicate the potential is excellent to add minable ounces and additional years of mine life in 1998 and beyond.

Third Quarter Operating Results

Echo Bay's gold production fell and silver production rose in the third quarter, as expected, principally reflecting the planned processing of carbonaceous ores leaner in gold but richer in silver at the McCoy/Cove mine. Company-wide quarterly gold production totaled 177,502 ounces this year, down 19% from 218,043 ounces last year, as planned. For the first nine months, gold production topped 550,000 ounces, in line with the company's full-year production target of 700-725,000 ounces. Silver production rose 56% to 3,271,677 ounces from 2,092,987 ounces a year ago, bringing silver production for the first nine months to 7.6 million ounces _- easily achieving in the first nine months the company's full-year 1997 production target of seven million ounces.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:43 - ID#285233)
Short Sqeeze??
Remember about 2-3 years ago when silver ran up almost a dollar in a week?? Then it collapsed since the whole run up was driven by one big player, never named.
Today, it would take under $1billion to buy up all Comex silver, and probably not much more the LMBA stockpiles. Is it possible we are being suckered in once again???
Just a thought.

Keep knives away from Hashimoto:
Hong Kong -5%
Japan -1.4%
Malaysia -4%
Korea -5%


(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:52 - ID#285233)
Red Asia
All of Asia is red except for Sri Lanka. Who the heck do they think they are?? Who are they, anyway?? I did not know that Ceylon has anything &#%@#&W^%*^& ) & ( *^%^&$^&.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:53 - ID#432451)
Anyone, Everyone. I am crying. I don't get on here often, but the last three times, I have asked specific people specific questions and never got anwers that I could find. For anyone with specific knowledge, WHAT IS DRIVING SILVER PRICES UP. I know there is big gap between supply and demand, but why hasn't it been showing before now.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:53 - ID#41229)

I'm curiuos to what price level do you see SSC going to . I too have .70 shares.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:55 - ID#284255)
MSFT Sucks - this is real I'm not trolling.
No coments re my:
Date: Wed Dec 10 1997 03:45
sharefin ( Microsoft sucks - I know it!!! ) ID#284255:

This is real and will be bigger than most knows.
I have received approximately 30 deductions of $9.90 from my Vias account.
Initially I was told that I would have to cancel my Visa account to stop
these automatic deductions.
Yesterday the bank told me that THEY would be cancelling my account and reissuing me with a new Visa account.
This is real and going to be serious as my bank BANK SA will be issueing
proceedings against MSFT for fraudulent use of peoples accounts.
The bank claims that it will be seeking reimbursment of deductions for all
their customers.
Mr. Bean of the IMF
The fund's latest financial botch-up appears to be South Korea. After negotiating a $57-billion ( U.S. ) IMF bailout -- using Canadian and other taxpayers as security -- the South Korean government announced that its short-term debt actually exceeded $100-billion, about $40-billion more than the figure the government and the IMF had claimed existed. The news, revealed Monday, sent the won to a new low and the local stock market into another tailspin.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 21:58 - ID#7568)

In one word, price. Move the price of silver up to 8-10 bucks and you may squish some of the Indian demand which is somewhat price sensitive. Since it will be years before meaningful new mine supply comes in even at 8 bucks, demand rationing must occur. Since the industrial users are almost completely insensitive to price the demand rationing will come from small bar hoarders and jewelery buyers.

In the short term this is of absolutely no use in predicting price. If the funds want to bid it up and the fire spreads to the public, anything can happen, and I mean anything. Conversely if a big holder wants to bail, we could see a quick reversal but it would not be the begining of a long downtrend.

Although I am getting horrified at the size of our exposure we have kind of made up our minds to ride the tsunami. I hope the big boys are in the same frame of mind.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:01 - ID#267298)

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:03 - ID#316193)
Allen(USA)...These are serious times...not Bre-X times...
Like Donald says, paper is cooked. When we finish next year I'll hold
the matchbox, you can strike the match.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:03 - ID#390249)
Italy revalues gold reserves
Per the attached, Italy revalued it's gold reserves today - gold would have gone much higher today without this announcement. Let's hope they don't sell.
Does anyone know when the deadline is to meet the EMU criteria? Is it Jan 1998, April 1998?

Re Silver - "hedge funds and bullion banks may be riding these fundamentals to their advantage" - just as DA said.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:03 - ID#432451)
NINER, you caught me. I laughed hard also. That's a good one.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:13 - ID#238422)
@John Disney
Dear John Disney,

Per your request, today, December 10, 1997, I shot beer can
with my 357. Used SilverTip ammo ( dedicated to silverbugs ) ,
hit this damn can 5 times out of 6 at 20 yards. Whatever
was left after 5 direct hits by 357 was carefully collected
in one pile and sprayed with 30 rounds of 7.62x39 Russian
hollowpoints from Chinese-made AK-47 style politically
incorrect ( assault ) semi-automatic rifle.

I am proud to report to you now that this beer can appears
to be nearly completely gone, but some traces of can aluminum may
still probably be found within 1/2 mile zone from the location of
the shooting. Unfortunately, that's about all I can do for now
with my limited capabilities, I wish I had more potential to deal
with this beer can...

Let me know if you want me to shoot another can, will gladly do it for you. Will even borrow 10 gauge from my friend, but the next damn beer
can is going to get wacked for sure...

In general, good day for gold, bad day for beer can, Yeltsin is back
to the hospital and also we got the First Dog in addition to the
First Cat. But I feel it's still too early to rock-n-roll, my gold is still in ICU, bad guys are still there and finally I am out of pickles.

Will get pickles first, then we'll talk PMs again, if you don't mind...

Best regards.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:19 - ID#401460)
Leland - Gold for Paper
I had just given the Sales Clerk my money, as he was walking away, he turned and said "Let's see paper for Gold, doesn't seem right"

We all agreed with him.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:29 - ID#316193)
Letters of credit may still work in the next century. Might they be
backed by something more than a Visa card? I would appreciate your

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:34 - ID#348286)
sweat & Highrise, thanks for the info. It looks like they are still major producers of silver, but the Gold side is hurting. I own the stock and will have to decide whether to hold or swap for higher quality. It seems many of these mid-tier producers have been ravaged by the low PM
prices and agressive expansion plans.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:34 - ID#426220)
THE DOMINO EFFECT... it is not a game!!
KOREA Stock Exchange DOWN 5.2%
Nikkei DOWN 1.4%
Hong Kong Hang Seng DOWN 5.4%
Malaysia Stock Exchange DOWN 4,2%
Taiwan Stock Exchange DOWN 2.2%
Singapore Stock Exchange DOWN 1.1%
New Zealand, India, Australia & China ALL DOWN about 1%

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:39 - ID#173274)
@the scene
GreatGramps -- Simply put, I do not really 'know why'! I've oftened wondered that myself. In speculating why, I can only add these thoughts.
It's not like the players don't know the fundamental supply/demand of the commodity, or what it will be a few months out for the most part. Especially in a fair constant like metals. Commodities that are grown might be a different story to some extent. Do the commercials drive it down to buy it at lower prices just before they DO need it? Somehow, the typical commercial net long possition during a price drop doesn't add up to that. Maybe the reported figures are BS. They do tend to operate on a just-in time purchasing system so perhaps their long positions are for a further out time span. Perhaps in the interim, the speculators get to have free reign for the most part. Could be all kinds of machinations behind the scenes causing much of the 'distortion'. So much of it doesn't make sense that I gave up needing to know. Just watch the fundamentals, then wait a year, or several. The 'action' will eventually catch up with reality.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:41 - ID#255190)
GreatGamps@21:53 RE: Silver movement

My take is that the numbers have been there for some time. Everyone has been standing around the dance floor waiting for someone else to ask the first girl to dance. Alot like that first school dance; half the night is spent talking; buyers talking to buyers, sellers talking to sellers, casting a few glances here and there. Finally one of the buyers makes a move to the 'up' side then another then three more and before you know it your married with children, eh ;- )

Of course its more complex than that with short sellers, hedgers, etc. But its basicly a psycho-social thing. No one want to be the first serious long buyer for fear that someone out there is waiting to short on you and drop the price. Once its obvious the shorts themselves are buying in the up swing of price then EVERYone jumps in. Looks like that is happening now. Just how long and how high? The band plays on...

There will probably be an overshoot at some point, then a retracement. Exciting stuff!!!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:44 - ID#7568)

The meltdown in Korea is continuing unabated tonight. The currency has slipped yet another 10%. The depreciation is now around 60 percent. In only the last few weeks we have gone from 1000 won to the dollar to in excess of 1700. This is starting to look cataclysmic.

It just may be that the Koreans have decided to blow off the IMF. Perhaps in a hara kiri moment of nationalistic insanity they are considering 'going it alone'. Maybe they are seriously considering the renouncement all external debts and doing barter deals while building reserves of something other than Won with which to trade. Perhaps a stash of gold would be in order. If this actually came to pass, the IMF would have a bunch of new customers, Citibank, JP Morgan, Chase etc.

Something is going to give very, very soon. You just can't erase the worlds 11th largest economy in a few weeks time and expect all to be calm.

In the back of my mind I can't help thinking that perhaps the silver rally has more to it than a bunch of funds looking for a trade. Perhaps someone, or group of someones has surveyed the markets and decided that silver is the safest store of value at the moment. There isn't much around relatively speaking, it is continually needed by industry and there are no massive government stockpiles should the powers that be wish to punish a flight 'out of the system'. If silver is in fact absorbing money as a flight to safety then we could truly see something spectacular. It is fun to dream.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:44 - ID#426220)
THE DOMINO EFFECT... it is not a game!!
KOREA Stock Exchange DOWN 5.2%

Nikkei DOWN 1.4%

Hong Kong Hang Seng DOWN 5.4%

Malaysia Stock Exchange DOWN 4,2%

Taiwan Stock Exchange DOWN 2.2%

Singapore Stock Exchange DOWN 1.1%

New Zealand, India, Australia & China ALL DOWN about 1%

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:52 - ID#348286)
Tonight looks like one of the worst meldowns in Asia in recent weeks.
If it continues, I don't believe that the north american markets can shrug it off, as it did a month ago.
All markets around the world are linked and cross invested, and liquidity problems can spread fast.
The question is how far will the powers go to pump in US dollars and keep the markets solvent?
Two days ago Oracle went down 30% in one day, why, because they reported earnings of 4%, which was less than expected.
IMHO, it looks to me that the Dow could buckle 30%, when investors realize their expectations will not be met.........

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:53 - ID#24095)
@ interesting
S&P futures falling like a rock...breaking below key support level at 965.
Could we be seeing Black Monday, will truly be interesting day on Wall Street tomorrow.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 22:54 - ID#24095)
@ interesting
S&P futures falling like a rock...breaking below key support level at 965.

Could we be seeing Black Monday, 1997? It will truly be interesting day on Wall Street tomorrow.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:09 - ID#28593)
Gardylop! (n. a warning cry given before tossing slops and garbage from the windows of old Edinburgh
FT: South Korea: Self-immolation

South Korea has only itself to blame for the renewed crisis that has hit its financial markets. While the government has taken the International Monetary Fund's cash and promised to swallow the IMF's medicine, its actions this week signal that nothing has really changed.
By nationalising two tottering banks instead of letting them go bust, and
subsidising Daewoo's takeover of the ailing Ssangyong Motors, the government has made clear that it still opposes the painful but essential
restructuring of the private sector. On top of that, it seems to have been less than forthright about the level of Korea's short-term debt, now thought to be twice as high as original estimates at more than $100bn.
Investors have drawn their own conclusions, pushing the won to a new low against the dollar.

It is difficult to see an easy way out of this impasse. To repay its short-term borrowings, Korea urgently needs foreign capital, which will be much more expensive than its previous borrowings. Limited reforms, such as opening the stock and bond markets to foreigners, are just a small step towards restoring investor confidence.

As a last resort, the IMF could pump in more money, though it is staggering to think that last week's record $57bn package may not be enough. But what is really needed is wholesale rationalisation of the financial and corporate sectors. Until the politicians overcome their fear of a popular backlash and accept this, Korea remains a market to be avoided."

Difficult to 'rationalize' when the people take to the street...

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:24 - ID#24095)
Ladies and Gentlemen...S&P Futures in a free fall..tomorrow could be the mother of all down days!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:30 - ID#401460)
Leland: I don't under stand your question. They wanted a 1.5% markup to use a credit card. Our exchange was Gold for Paper ( US$ ) . The point being what is the US$ really worth today and what is it going to be worth after tonight's Asian market activity?
Your 22:29 Post?
"Letters of credit may still work in the next century. Might they be backed by something more than a Visa card? I would appreciate your

Again, letters of credit? I don't understand your point.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:30 - ID#23782)
Where can I watch them? ( S&P )

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:31 - ID#364147)
@ The bunker
In the midst of Asian equity collapse,Feb. gold is up a dime...S+P futures down a modest 5.70~~~~~~~

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:31 - ID#426220)
When Asians Can No Longer Stand the Pain - Theyll Buy GOLD














You ask what figure belongs to which country? Like fallen dominos, they all look the same with their faces down in the financial gutter... it doesn't matter. One thing certain though, they will eventually and inevitably fall back on their cultural affinity to GOLD.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:35 - ID#364147)
@ Ain't Joe Smith + Louie Dampier great
EB: and they couldn't even beat GOLDen state----that makes it THREE straight dude ( grin thing ) ~~~~~~~~~~~go gold******

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:36 - ID#23782)
Do you think any there will be Asian investment
in PM equities. Even possibly some takeovers?

Dave in CO
(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:38 - ID#215211)
Kyoto global warming agreement approved
U.S. must reduce pollution to 7% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. Gore loves it.

Senate won't approve but won't Clinton just issue another executive order? Ideas of effects on the markets and how soon?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:43 - ID#364147)
@ Stats
Hang Seng down 663 ( 6.02% ) Nikkei down 326 ( 1.98% ) Feb. Gold unch @ 288.60 and S+P futures down 5.60~~~~~~~~~GOLDen State 93
Lakers 92

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:46 - ID#426220)
CHUK KAM (Solid 24K Gold)
sweat: YOUR question, "Do you think any there will be Asian investment in PM equities." Based upon historical precedent the masses will only purchase CHUK KAM. However, there might be some Asian financial institutional buying of precious metals stocks -- as they are more sophisticated and well-know the historical leverage of 3 to 5 times what the bullion will rise.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:46 - ID#252352)
Lessons from Asia for Central Bankers?

Perhaps, one important lesson to be leaned from the Asian currency crisis is that money must be backed by gold and systems of reporting the amount of backing in place must be devised in order to ensure a self-disciplined approach to monitoring your own financial integrity.

Will the central bankers still be as eager to sell gold and go more to paper or other forms of currency support?

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:49 - ID#364147)
Spot Gold
Down 2.65~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:49 - ID#401460)
There She Goes Again!!
They can't even print money fast enough to buy Gold, all they can do is sell it. Gold Nose Dive Underway!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:50 - ID#35767)
That S&P bein down shows there id some fine folks in Singapore. You make gar dam proud son!

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:51 - ID#28593)
The Battle of the Titans Begins--A warning shot across the bow...
Jeffrey Sachs: IMF is a power unto itself--THURSDAY DECEMBER 11 1997 ( FT )
It is time that the world take a serious look at the International Monetary Fund. In the past three months, this small, secretive institution has dictated economic conditions to 350m people in Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. It has put on the line more than $100bn of taxpayers' money in loans.

These bailout operations, if handled incorrectly, could end up helping a few dozen international banks to escape losses for risky loans by forcing Asian governments to cover the losses on private transactions that have gone bad. Yet the IMF decisions have been taken without any public debate, comment, or scrutiny.

While it pays lip service to "transparency", the IMF offers virtually no
substantive public documentation of its decisions, except for a few pages in press releases that are shorn of the technical details needed for a serious professional evaluation of its programmes. Remarkably, the international community accepts this state of affairs as normal.

The world waits to see what the Fund will demand of country X, assuming
that the IMF has chosen the best course of action. The world accepts as
normal the idea that crucial details of IMF programmes should remain
confidential, even though these "details" affect the well-being of millions. Staff at the Fund, meanwhile, are unaccountable for their decisions. The people most affected by these policies have little knowledge or input. In Korea, the IMF insisted that all presidential candidates immediately "endorse" an agreement they had no part in drafting or negotiating - and no time to understand.

The situation is out of hand. However useful the IMF may be to the world
community, it defies logic to believe that the small group of 1,000 economists on 19th Street in Washington should dictate the economic conditions of life to 75 developing countries with around 1.4bn people.

These people constitute 57 per cent of the developing world outside China
and India ( which are not under IMF programmes ) . Since perhaps half of the
IMF's professional time is devoted to these countries - with the rest tied up in surveillance of advanced countries, management, research, and other tasks - about 500 staff cover the 75 countries. That is an average of about seven economists per country.

One might suspect that seven staffers would not be enough to get a very
sophisticated view of what is happening. That suspicion would be right. The IMF threw together a draconian programme for Korea in just a few days, without deep knowledge of the country's financial system and without any subtlety as to how to approach the problems. Consider what the Fund said about Korea just three months ago in its 1997 annual report. "Directors welcomed Korea's continued impressive macroeconomic performance [and] praised the authorities for their enviable fiscal record." Three months ago there was not a hint of alarm, only a call for further financial sector reform - incidentally without mentioning the chaebol ( conglomerates ) , or the issue of foreign ownership of banks, or banking supervision that now figure so prominently in the IMF's Korea programme.

In the same report, the IMF had this to say about Thailand, at that moment on the edge of the financial abyss. "Directors strongly praised Thailand's remarkable economic performance and the authorities' consistent record of sound macroeconomic policies."

With a straight face, Michel Camdessus, the IMF managing director, now
blames Asian governments for the deep failures of macroeconomic and
financial policies that the IMF has discovered. It would have been more useful instead, for the IMF to ponder why the situation looked so much better three months ago, for therein lies a basic truth about the situation in Asia.

There is no "fundamental" reason for Asia's financial calamity except financial panic itself. Asia's need for significant financial sector reform is real, but not a sufficient cause for the panic, and not a justification for harsh macroeconomic policy adjustments. Asia's fundamentals are adequate to forestall an economic contraction: budgets are in balance or surplus, inflation is low, private saving
rates are high, economies are poised for export growth.

Asia is reeling not from a crisis of fundamentals, but from a self-fulfilling withdrawal of short-term loans, one that is fuelled by each investor's recognition that all other investors are withdrawing their claims. Since short-term debts exceed foreign exchange reserves, it is "rational" for each investor to join in the panic.

Without wider professional debate, the IMF has decided to impose a severe
macroeconomic contraction on top of the market panic that is already roiling these economies. Consider the Korea programme ( or at least those parts that have been announced to the public ) . The won has depreciated by around 80 per cent in the past 12 months, from around 840 a dollar to a record low of 1,565 yesterday; this currency depreciation will force up the prices of traded goods. Yet despite that, the IMF insists that Korea aim for an essentially unchanged inflation rate ( 5.2 per cent in 1998, in comparison with 4.2 per cent in 1997 ) . To achieve unchanged low inflation in the face of a huge currency depreciation, Korea will need a brutal monetary squeeze. And indeed this is just what the Fund has ordered. Short-term interest rates jumped from 12 per cent to 21 per cent upon the signing of the programme, and have since risen further.

The Fund argues that these draconian monetary measures are "to restore and sustain calm in the markets" and "[to] demonstrate to markets the
government's resolve to confront the present crisis". It is hard to see how recessionary monetary policy will restore calm. Indeed the panic has so intensified since the signing of the agreement that Korean banks may now be on the verge of outright default. Just one day after the measures were unveiled, the 11th largest-conglomerate declared bankruptcy when Korean banks abruptly refused to roll over its short-term debts. In recent days more well-known local companies have gone under.

In addition to the rise in interest rates, the IMF is insisting that fiscal policy be tightened by 1-1 per cent of GDP. On top of this, the IMF required that 9 out of 30 merchant banks suspend operations. The IMF is aiming for Korean growth to fall to 2.5 per cent in 1998 from 6 per cent in 1997. But the projected slowdown may turn out to be the least of Korea's worries by next year, since the underlying macroeconomic measures could easily push the economy into outright contraction. None of this overkill makes sense for an economy that was ( rightly ) judged to be pursuing sound macroeconomic policies just months earlier.

A better approach would have been for the IMF to stress the strengths rather than the weaknesses of the Korean economy, thereby calming the markets rather than further convincing them of the need to flee the country. Months ago, when the financial crisis began, the Fund could have quietly encouraged Japan, the US and Europe to provide some credit support to the Bank of Korea. It might well have worked with the major banks to encourage them to roll over their short-term debts without inflaming the panic. With appropriate confidence-building measures, Korea could probably have got by with a modest slowdown in growth, no credit crunch, and a realistic time horizon of a few years to complete its needed financial reforms.

In more than six dozen developing countries, the IMF is in a position to
choose make-or-break financial policies. While its instincts are often correct, they can sometimes be wrong, with serious consequences.
In recent years, the IMF mishandled the Russian reforms ( for example, by
insisting for more than a year that all 15 successor states to the Soviet Union share a common currency, thereby delaying stabilisation and undermining the political support for reforms ) . In Bulgaria, the IMF signed a programme in July 1996 based on 2.5 per cent growth and 20 per cent inflation in 1997. Instead,Bulgaria has suffered an outright collapse of gross domestic product of more than 10 per cent, and inflation in the hundreds of per cent. The IMF ( in common with others ) failed to foresee the Mexico crisis in 1994, and the Asian crises in 1997.

Three general conclusions can be reached. First, the IMF is invested with too much power: no single agency should have responsibility for economic policy in half the developing world. Second, the IMF's executive board should do its job of overseeing the staff, rather than simply rubber-stamp the staffs' proposals. It is high time the board
consult outside expertise in the exploratory stages of IMF operations; it should also canvas international opinion about the origins and policy implications of the Asian crisis. Third, IMF operations should be made public, so that professional debate and review can help ensure the highest possible professionalism of the institution especially since ( for all its faults ) the Fund will surely continue to play an
important role for many years in the future.
The author is head of the Harvard Institute for International

I apologize for the long, long post, but this seems a very critical

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:52 - ID#23782)
A wealth of knowledge. Thanks

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:55 - ID#35767)
Gold Bear
This bear appears to want no one on board for the BULL. Gold always disappoints.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:56 - ID#401460)
You are right about the Stock leverage value, My new coins didn't go up at all but my mining stocks moved at least 5%.

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:56 - ID#364147)

(Wed Dec 10 1997 23:57 - ID#310407)
Gold dropping like a rock overseas!!! (as Silver continues to SHINE!!!)
Hmmm Silver continues it's rise overseas, as Gold begins it's fall. Didn't I try and tell ya? the Asians are SELLING on financial meltdown, NOT BUYING. I'm just surprised Silver can rise against such poor stock market and world economy news, it being an industrial metal. Must be a LOT of strength in this sudden panic buying.. methinks the shortage must be real.. ( or is it just that Soros guy, cornering the market ;- )

I feel like DANCIN.. No end in SIGHT! ( But remeber GoldBugs, I won't be happy with anything less than 100 or 200% on my silver stockpile, what with being used to my DOW profits all these years and being a spoiled Equity Lemminglike sheep dude... Bahhhh )