smart SWISS guys reduced their currency backing from 40% to
TWENTY FIVE,and not FIVE percent?
The way things work in Switzerland this reduction in gold backing requires a referendum to be held in 1998. There is no reason to believe that the Swiss will go along with it. Hasn't happened yet.

December 12, 1997
Grains, cotton weak on Asia, gold also drops

CHICAGO ( Reuters ) - Grain and soybean prices fell sharply Friday as rumors swirled in the markets about Asian buyers cancelling export purchases, adding to fears that demand from Asian buyers will fall badly due to financial turmoil.

Korean buyers have separately applied for $1.2 billion in export credits from the U.S. Agriculture Department, a request not yet acted on.

Traders said the Treasury's statement did not bode well for U.S. grain exports. The grain markets were already on edge after a cancellation of a 50,000 metric ton purchase of soybeans by Thailand, another economy troubled by currency and banking weakness.

"Today we had sales that were canceled and that really hit home," Armstrong added. "Sales we thought we had made all of a sudden disappeared."

Dale Durchholz, an analyst with AgriVisor Services in Bloomington, Illinois, said the export picture was changing rapidly."Last summer, everyone expected exports to be good," he said. "Right now, everybody is questioning that because of the problems that we're having in Asia. This thing could just unravel on us so quickly."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/dec12_gra.html

Sir Charles will bow to the greatness.....ohmy.....Chick Hearn says they take 'em tonight. It is in the refrigerator, the butter is getting hard, the eggs are cold, the jello is jigglin', this game is in the fridge...............uh huh.

'IT' is a bore?.............hmmmmmmmmmmm......if a guy has friends...........who needs enemies............?? a bore??!?

away

gettinhischainpulled

go gold

Have you ever stared down a 49 foot downhill putt with a right to left break................on a rainy day.......................in the wind......................................after drinking a twelve pack.............with a chihuahua nipping at your leg................in pitch black.........with your eyes closed.....................and you gotta take a leak.............Well...you asked for comments...

away...to the game

eatingtheglide

http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html

92-78........put a fork in it...

away

owningtexas

Interesting work using wavelet theory to decompose trends in the stock market. One of the problems with wavelet analysis is that it is dependent somewhat on the stationarity of the time-series. ( ie if your mean and standard deviation change during the period you are analyzing ) . How do you handle the problem?

Just for fun, I used a method I developed to derive the Hurst exponent of a time-series on stock market data for 1 year ( 11/14/96 - 11/14/97 ) . For those not up on this, a Hurst exponent, or H, tells you the degree of autocorrelation of a time-series. 0 less than H less than 1. An H of 0.5 is a random walk. For H values less than 0.5, there is an anti-persistence, in that trends tend to get reversed. As you approach H = 0, there is more anti-persistence. For H greater than 0.5, there is an increase in persistence, up to H close to 1. That is, trends in the series tend to be re-enforced.

Anyway, on a lark, I crunched the time-series data, and the answer is:

over a 50 day period, H = 0.797 +/- 0.018 ( SEM ) , over the 100 day period, H = 0.289 +/- 0.053. For the 1 year data, H = 0.445 +/- 0.021. I'll have to think about what this means. I'll offer my off the cuff interpretation: over the short-term ( 50 days ) , trends are very likely to persist. Over longer periods ( 100 days ) trends are likely to reverse. And over the long period, trends are pretty close to a random walk, with slight anti-persistence. Once a trend has started ( whatever that means! ) , it appears likely to persist over a 50 day trading period. I guess we'll find out.

If anyone can point me to data covering the period from 11/14 to current, I'll be happy to recrunch!

When I have more time, I'll have to window periods of 30 - 200 days across a larger sample to see what comes out.....

Enjoy!

pdeep: what kind of data are you looking for?

EB--Having invested gambling money in some HM calls, I feel my pain. I am no golfer, but the putt you describe sounds like a cinch. How hard can it be? And my Maple Leaf sure is purty!

So far, this Asian crisis has been economic in nature. Most straight line analysis on how this will affect the United States ignores the potential for political fallout.

By refusing to directly help South Korea the U.S. may incur their wrath. National pride coupled with Asian state sponsorship of industry can lead to market share dumping of products. Bill Buckler's Privateer makes excellent analysis that the inability of the U.S. to fully resolve this Asian crisis may open the door for the Euro to become a parallel reserve currency. National pain and suffering many times in history has lead to aggressive imperial behavior.

I wonder why the suffering in Asia has contained itself to economic terms.

JTF ,Mike Sheller ,LGB -JTF-Sorry I wish answers could be easy and profound but my mental and spiritual ideas do not fit the norm ."Whatever man can do for another is peace within the soul"I am sure you are on the trail of truth and not greed.Mike Sheller-The Universe is telling ,forgiving and a flux of positive thinking that all here could meekly find , as John Lennon Said "From within we all go as brothers and sisters.LGB-Humility is not a sin but a beautiful gift from our supreme maker.Happy Trails

time-series data for the djia, ( or whatever other index might be useful to probe ) just date and closing average. I bookmarked one site that had the DJIA in ASCII format back to 1990. But it only went to 11/14/97. Now if I could only find it...:- )

http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/ratio.htm

Comments are encouraged. I've been pondering

the recent uptick for a couple of days now.

DJ-

I disagree that platinum and gold will re-approach. I think a test of the low for the year of $352 is a certainty. Platinum is in critical supply throughout the world. Johnson Mathey, in the semi-annual report released last month, estimate a 360K ounce production deficit for 1997. They also call for $450 - $460 platinum in the next six months. JM is always very conservative in their estimates and tend to underestimate price movements by 50% or more. Platinum has not gone below $330 since catalytic converters were first introduced. Demand, which increases at an annual rate of 4% - 5% per year, leaped to over 7% in 1997. This increased demand does not include the 100K + ounces of platinum sold by the US Mint this year in the form of Platinum Eagles as it borrowed the metal from the Department of defense. The Mint has until 2003 to pay back any and all platinum borrowed. Estimates of 1998 demand call for another 7% increase.

All this, at a time when the market is experiencing a critical shortage of the metal. You think silver is going up because several hundred million ounces of deliverable refined silver is a shortage? It widely believed that Russia has, or will have, zero reserves by mid 1998. Barron's ran an article early this year by a western mining expert who toured Russia's Norilsk mine - source of virtually all of its platinum and palladium production. He reported that the mine was running at 25% efficiency with broken machinery by miners that are owed a billion rubles in back pay. There will be supply disruptions in 98, platinum will soar.

DA -

You are correct in you insistence the any commodity will not drop to zero, and is incapable of going any lower regardless. Up has no theoretical limit. That is why stops are employed. The problem with a stop loss order is if the market has a large gap up on the open, this can blow right through buy stops before the order is executed. This danger exists equally in either long or short positions.

Your assertion that future contracts do pay interest - I assume you are referring to the contango. This is usually no more than a 4 - 6 cent payoff, half of which is eaten by the turnaround costs. The biggest problem with future shorts is the delivery date. This arbitrary date forces holders of contracts act when it may not be in their best interest to do so. Witness the short squeeze on palladium this summer, There would have be no squeeze if the contract were not expiring. Since I deal in the physical leverage market, there are no dates by which the metal must be sold or bought. Since a zero move in silver would still have 21.5% return in a year, any comparisons to the futures market fall away. A client can hold a short forever, provided he stays with it on the rallies. Secondly, I deal in the cash market. The spot market is what drives the futures, not the other way around. The most recent example of cash market control is the $30 backwardation in both PL and PA this summer, and near backwardation in silver now.

The market moves two ways, you gotta' play 'em both. I think the reason so many here repeat the endless mantra that gold has bottomed and will rise soon is they do not understand short selling. They can only make money if the market goes up. Their logic gets diluted by desire and decisions can be clouded. When you play both sides of a market, a wonderful liberation takes place. You no longer have any emotional attachment to direction, all you want is movement. I know this type of emotion driven buying does not apply to you or your firm. You are a computer traded system player, but I see this blind reverence for gold in the words of many here. This is the only explanation for the reactions I see to downturns that were predicted months in advance. These are the people who buy at any price all the way down. The sad thing is, by the time it drops that low, their money is gone and they have to sell at low prices to pay the rent.

So, this then leads us to you second concern about tops and bottoms. Nobody can pick 'em. Some can get close much of the time, but nobody knows when or how a market will turn. We can only gather enough information and view it all with a keen eye and then make the best informed guess we can. This is the function of the broker, that is why they are paid for trades. It is a full time job to stay current on these markets. Even brokers need brokers. I'm a metals broker, but I still need a stock broker to keep me up to date on my investments there, I don't have the time. While my record of picking tops or bottoms is about the same as any other informed broker, I do excel in getting all those juicy profits in the middle. All I do is try to trade the range, wherever the range may be. Trading $4.00 - 4.50 silver is really no different than trading $5.00 - $5.50 silver, and the 50 cent gain is an identical return. You may have to spend a bit more to trade the higher prices, but the only important thing is the range. I will repeat this in capital letters ( which I disapprove of as much as narrow double spaced posts )

TRADE THE RANGE, WHATEVER THE RANGE MAY BE!

??????? -

I forgot who asked about my call for $6.20 silver recently. True I did acknowledge the distinct possibility that silver could rise far and fast, but I didn't believe the whole shortage thingy and was short more silver than I was long. The double whammy was the platinum dropping so low. When you are long one metal and short another, it is a very rare occurrence that they will both move against you at the same time, at least in any severe way. You can usually depend on losses in one leg of the trade will be partly or mostly made up for by gains in the other leg. I got stung some on long platinum/short silver this week. This is the reason for the crow munching.

To DJ

Still in Notepad - will try "enter" at end of line

Thanks for tip - hope it works.

For Donald - You referred to Dual currency system in

RSA. Im sure you realize that the financial rand/

commmercial rand setup was discontinued a long time

ago. ( 1994?? ) The cheap finrand was installed to

encourage foreign $ inflow to RSA and inhibit outflow.

It was successful at least to the extent that it sucked

me out of expensive Europe into the Cape ( if you call

that successful ) .

pdeep .......
Interesting work using wavelet theory to
decompose trends in the stock market.
One of the problems with wavelet analysis is that it is dependent somewhat on the stationarity of the time-series........

The time series approach in "Time Series Analysis"
( Forecasting & Control ) by Box & Jenkins
applys to non-stationary stochastic processes,
so why bother with Wavelets???

I recall something in regard to 40/25% backing happened
on the November 1, 1997. I may be wrong, sorry.
If it didn't actually happen, please
make it as "smart Swiss guys plan to reduce...".

What I meant is the potential trend..

I am just guessing that EURO may in fact be backed by the gold
not at estimated 5%, but a little bit heavier than that. Previously,
there were a lot of words of no gold at all for EURO.

I am also speculating that 25% for Swiss frank might be some kind
of indirect indication of gold backing for EURO.

I am just a mechanical engineer, don't blame me for being so primitive.

For DJ

It did not WORK

Ah is cursed by de Double Space Gold BUG Debil, Massah

an what is ah goin to do, Boss

A E Poe speaks - "try using WORD my friend"

OK Massah Po ah all lltry anythung.

oris: Just a point of interest of mine. I like the referendum for certain issues. Telling the politicians not to do things for political gain with the rest of their cronies at the expense of the country is an opportunity I wish we all had. I think the idea of having two heads of a country--like the Monarchy in England that represents the country and its heritage as well as a politician like Blair with current political interests is better than having both wrapped up in one person like the US Pres. But having the citizens vote on important issues and over ruling the politicians is better yet.

What would it take for you to sell your gold?
Need a strong US for a freind or a strong US$ ?
gold sale.

http://www.sofmag.com/archive/ws/0597/wsargentina.html
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971007/world/wasiap.html

Beamer for your question
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1997q4/1997_11/971130.161423.puetzeeee.htm
Many thanks to Puetz

For a laugh.. you will need raplayer. Its worth it : )
http://www.artbell.com/sound.html

You are right. It is always important for the people to have
a real power. Switzerland is a good example.

Bill Clinton does have a lot of power, but the real power in the
U.S. belongs to the U.S. Congress.

Still, Congress is not = The American people, but at least can
be an effective counterbalance to the President.

If I understood you correctly, you do not believe that people of
Switzerland will vote to support reduction of national gold holdings.

WTO on a roll again as historic banking deal done
GENEVA, Dec 13 ( Reuters ) -

To get the deal, U.S. negotiators and industry chiefs in Geneva had to convince sceptical officials, congressmen and some firms in countless telephone calls back home that it was not only the best that could be got, but "good for America."

At stake was the opening up -- even if over a period of years -- of an industry worth $1.2 trillion alone in daily foreign exchange transactions, more than $20 trillion in banking assets and several trillion dollars in insurance premiums.

The deal would give banks an easier time opening up in signatory countries and bring "more than 98 percent of the world
insurance business in over 60 countries within a system of binding foreign trade principles," said Gordon Cloney, president of
the U.S.-based International Insurance Council.



"In fact it is one-way traffic," he told reporters. Industrialised countries had most to gain from the accord and would take advantage to crash into the markets of emerging economies and sweep aside national firms.

WTO officials said the pact had to be ratified by January 30, 1999 by all signatory countries. It would go into force 30 days after that, at the start of March.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TRADE-FINANCIAL.html

To I forget who it was

I believe Isandlwana is a little closer to name of Brit wipe out.

However, Brits did better at place called something like Rouark's

Drift, where Michael Caine and 7 ( ?? ) others won VC.

Yes the Congress has the power but the Pres is both a Gov official and represents the country so when he gets into trouble personally like Clinton seems to do daily it starts to get mixed up with the US. In France the Pres is always in trouble too but the Prime Minister ( I think he is called ) represents the country and stays out of politics. I think there is a good chance the Swiss will vote against the sale of gold from their reserves but they may be so over come with guilt that they do it anyway. Atleast they get the chance to vote on it.

Selby, I apologize for not being able to discuss political stuff any further, and the only reason is that I have very little knowledge of it.
I just don't know what to say except that Clinton constantly in some
kind of trouble, looks attractive to women, plays music, was re-elected
by the American people, good speaker, got a new pet and I do not agree with him on the subject of Second Ammendment.

On the other hand, could you please express your opinion on 2 of my
previous posts to "Dave in CO", just would like to learn if you consider
it to be complete nonsense or may be not.

Thanks in advance...

For Another

You seem you have been bitten by the double space

bug too.

For Roebear/golden boy

My dander is down. So refreshing to see bright minds

actually question conventional wisdom. "Accounting is

different" point is interesting.

4 billion of abx 4.5 billion total assets is listed

as "Fixed Assets" - Any idea what that represents????

Looking at anglo american's assets - "fixed" are only

maybe 5/6 percent of total ( not 85 ) with the bulk made

up by share price of their holdings. As of end sept

net was 332 R/share ( must have fallen some since then ) -

and their price now is 192 .

For ABX to trade at 16/9 or 1.8* assets is a little

spooky really. And just what is the basis for the

4 billion in fixed ?? thats a lot - are they including

the value of the gold properties they own??

A hole in the ground in Nevada is not worth so much

with gold at say 220/oz. At 100/oz it will cost you

to fill it in and make it environmental acceptable.

I am enchanted by that 4 billion. What is it? what is

it? I never looked at this before.

Dear John Disney,

Just want to let you know that weather looks much better now,
so I plan to shoot another beer can this Saturday. Results
will be reported promptly.

Very truly yours,

Oris

For spock

Would appreciate your help. Where did you find information

on German gold holdings in the 1920s. Im very interested in

gold holdings by invidual countries from period 1915 to 1945.

Can you give me any sources of info??

For Oris - what can I say - Ill be watching the races today but Id

rather be out there busting cans with you.

For DJ saw your charts - you are lucky to have looked in these

charts in $ terms. In dmarks or swiss they look MUCH worse. The

lows have been taken out in Swiss but there is some hope at 480

dmarks ( last low ) - In stirling - we are ON IT. I am counting on

480 dm to HOLD. I am counting on 352$ to hold on plats - If not,

we may as well all go out and shoot beer cans with oris and the

hell with it

for lgb-2

By the way, could I that ladies name and phone number??

G'day Haulpack,

The Pegasus article appeared in the WA press today. Any Pegasus shareholders out there, you really should DUMP your stock, PEGASUS ARE GOING BUST, there is NO upside. The WA mining scene is bearing up under the strain, by virtue of the drop in the Aussie dollar. Forward sales are saving the day, so hopefully the gold price will turn within the year.... if not before.

The way we look at things in Kalgoorlie are.... if we are stuffed, then everyone else is too.

Aye, Haggis

You asked for comments about the Bob Johnson XAU ratio chart. My comment is that I don't understand it. Perhaps you have noticed that I post the XAU/Spot Ratio daily. Friday it was .239 as I recall. That was developed by JTF and myself a few months ago. It works for me ( so far ) .

What the number I post represents is the number of safe "in pocket" ounces of gold it takes to buy the XAU which, of course, represents "pie in the sky" gold. The XAU has been calculated since 1983. The all time XAU/Spot Ratio low is .146 in June, 1986. Another serious low was November, 1992 with a reading of .189. The all time high was January, 1996, with a posting of .397. You do not want to hold gold shares at that level.

Thursday December 11, 4:44 pm Eastern Time

U.S. M-2 money supply rose $14.4 bln in Dec 1 week

NEW YORK, Dec 11 ( Reuters ) - U.S. M-2 money supply rose $14.4 billion in the December 1 week to $4,015.6 billion, the

Federal Reserve said.

The broader M-3 measure rose $22.2 billion to $5,320.5 billion. M-1 rose $12.0 billion to $1,073.4 billion, the Fed said.

The Fed said the four-week moving average of M-2 was $3,999.0 billion versus $3,992.7 billion in the previous week.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971211/u_s_m_2_money_supply_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971213/korea_picture_1.html

SATURDAY DECEMBER 13 1997

Asian crisis shows that bigger loans will have to be handed out, says

Camdessus. By Robert Chote in London

Asia's financial crisis has prompted the head of the International Monetary

Fund to request a $160bn increase in the organisation's capital base, far more

than its members agreed less than three months ago.

Michel Camdessus, the IMF's managing director, has warned his board that

the fund's finances have deteriorated significantly since its annual meeting in

September - especially because of its $21bn loan to South Korea. He argues

that the Asian crisis has also demonstrated that the fund needs to make larger

loans than it used to.

Mr Camdessus is therefore urging the board to increase the fund's $200bn

capital base by between 70 and 80 per cent, rather than the 45 per cent

agreed in Hong Kong. This increase in so-called "quotas" ( or subscriptions )

would enlarge the pool of resources the IMF has available to lend.

The board is due to discuss Mr Camdessus's proposal on Wednesday. A

draft resolution could then be put to the IMF's member countries by the end

of the year, when it would require 85 per cent approval - weighted by each

nation's voting power.

The managing director proposes that the share of the quota increase taken by

each member country should be the same under his proposal as under the

earlier 45 per cent agreement. This avoids changing the relative voting power

each country enjoys in the organisation.

Mr Camdessus is taking a big political risk with the proposal. The US,

Canada and the UK are said to be opposed to the idea, which would be more

than enough to block it. The other members of the Group of Seven leading

industrial countries are said to be less hostile, while middle-income and

developing countries are expected to be supportive.

The agreement in Hong Kong was the culmination of more than three years of

sometimes acrimonious discussion. The US held out against an agreement for

several months and would not go higher than 45 per cent. The Clinton

administration may argue that it will be difficult enough to get Congress to

agree to 45 per cent, let alone to go any higher.

Mr Camdessus has long argued for a bigger quota increase, first proposing

100 per cent and later 55 to 65 per cent. His case was weakened by

unexpected improvements in the IMF's liquidity position, which the Asian

crisis has subsequently thrown into reverse.

The managing director hinted last week that he might ask IMF members for

more resources. Referring to the Hong Kong deal, he said: "That was not

enough, as I said in advance. So nothing is easier than to proceed to a new

increase in the quotas, because it will not cost you a dime and it is the most

efficient way to solve the great problems of the world."

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971212/ny_precious_metals_e_1.html

Precious metals: The death of gold

SATURDAY DECEMBER 13 1997

Gold has always been more than a precious metal - men have even lost their

lives for it. But no longer. Gold has fallen from grace and is now a mere metal

and a bad investment. Kenneth Gooding explains why most of the glister has

disappeared.

Gold, frankincense and myrrh. The three wise men deemed these gifts suitable

for the King of Kings two millenniums ago. It says something about gold's

staying power that today it is still a suitable gift for a sovereign, though a more

thoughtful wise man may swap the precious metal for US Treasury bonds.

Mankind's fascination with gold goes back much further than 2,000 years. For

primitive man, the attraction was aesthetic. Gold glinted at him from streams

and river beds. He found it so malleable that, even cold, it could be hammered

into crude ornaments and artefacts. Beauty and scarcity gave gold mystical

appeal, and it became the stuff of temples, icons, idols, and offerings to the

gods.

Ancient Egypt and Rome drew much power from gold, mined by slaves in

conditions of unbelievable misery. "There is absolutely no consideration nor

relaxation for sick or maimed, for aged man or weak woman," wrote the

historian Diodorus in the 2nd century BC.

Similar conditions existed in Siberian gold mines up to the 1960s and miners

still descend the deep shafts of South Africa knowing that, even if they obey

the safety rules, there is no guarantee they will come out alive.

For the rich, and for the poor who sought it, gold was a tangible, long-term

store of wealth, acceptable anywhere, a safe haven at times of disaster.

But gold is not what it once was. The image has been tarnished - apart from a

couple of blips, its price has been drifting downwards for more than a decade.

This week the price was the lowest for 18 years.

The 1987 stock market crash, the Gulf war and a meltdown of Asia's financial

markets did not cause the expected rush for gold.

So, has gold had its day, at least as an investment? Has the glister gone? Is it

only the sentimental and the gold obsessed, the bugs, who still seek it out and,

as Virgil put it, have the "cursed craving for gold"?

Ted Arnold has no craving. He is a gold bear and metals specialist at the

Merrill Lynch financial services group: "The reality is that gold is now a

commodity just like any other. Many gold miners still think gold is something

special or magical and not subject to the usual laws of supply and demand like

copper or zinc or nickel. But it is."

But will everyone everywhere eventually stop viewing gold as an investment?

Is the end of the affair an inevitable outcome of modernisation, when money

transfers are automatic and unseen, and there is talk that cash itself will

disappear? When it became clear that people needed a medium of exchange,

gold was the medium of choice. Croesus, King of Lydia, is credited with

ordering the first gold coins to be struck in 550 BC.

Gold's great appeal was its indestructability. It does not tarnish like silver and

is generally not corroded by acid. Gold coins have been recovered from

sunken treasure ships looking as bright as new. And the metal still has its

modern moments. There was a rush to gold savings accounts in Japan after

television newcasts of the 1995 Kobe earthquake showed an old woman

tearing at the rubble of her house and triumphantly pulling out an unscathed,

glittering gold bar.

There are estimates, not uncontested, that until 1850 only 10,000 tonnes of

gold had ever been mined. The 1848-49 Californian gold rush changed all

that, followed by the discovery of huge gold fields in South Africa in the

1890s. There was another belated rush in 1980 after the price jumped to

$850 - almost three times its present price.

Miners have been using new techniques and modern technology to locate and

remove the gold. Last year, a record 2,350 tonnes were dug from the world's

mines, or 75.56m ounces.

A turning point occurred when gold became a standard measure of wealth,

personal and national. Formal "gold standards" were introduced by trading

nations after the Californian rush ensured there was enough metal available.

Britain's began in 1816 and the rest of Europe followed in the 1870s. The US

did not finally divorce itself from a silver-gold standard until 1900, about the

same time as India.

The gold standard was meant to discipline an economy. The price was fixed

and the currency was redeemable in gold. The UK gave up this system in

1919 but it persisted in the US until 1933.

Between the 1930s and 1972 there was an "international gold exchange

standard" which involved central banks supplementing their gold reserves with

certain key currencies that, in theory, could be redeemed for gold.

All this led to central banks building substantial stocks of gold and caused one

Yale professor, Robert Triffin, famously to remark: "Nobody could ever have

conceived of a more absurd waste of human resources than to dig gold in

distant corners of the earth for the sole purpose of transporting it and

reburying it immediately afterwards in other deep holes, especially excavated

to receive it and heavily guarded to protect it."

Today, most gold goes to make jewellery rather than into central bank vaults.

According to the Gold Fields Mineral Services consultancy, 2,807 tonnes of

gold was used by jewellery makers last year.

Unreconstructed gold bulls emphasise that this was far more than the 2,350

tonnes that came out of mines during the year. Demand for gold this year has

been at record levels - Indians, for example, bought more in the first nine

months than in the whole of 1996 - yet the dollar price of gold has slumped by

20 per cent. The price has fallen because of increasing fears that central banks

will steadily sell off gold - they still have 37,000 tonnes tucked away in vaults,

equivalent to more than 12 years' supply.

The new breed of central banker is not dazzled by gold and sees little point in

having an asset that just takes up storage space. Some have been getting a

modest return by lending gold to bullion banks, earning 1 or 2 per cent and

adding to market liquidity.

That did not satisfy performance-oriented bankers, economic rationalists who

were not charmed by the romance of gold. For them, as for the 14th century

Scottish poet Andrew of Wyntoun, "Oure gold wes changyd into lede". So the

central bankers started selling.

The Netherlands said in January that it had sold 300 tonnes, the fourth

disposal since 1989; since then it has cut gold reserves by 20 per cent. In July,

Australia shook the market by announcing that it had reduced its gold reserves

by two-thirds - even a leading gold producer seemed to have lost the faith.

And, two weeks ago, Argentina revealed it had sold its entire gold reserves in

the first half of this year, all 124 tonnes, and invested the proceeds, $1.46bn,

in US Treasury bonds.

Echoing the views of other central banks that complain gold is an unproductive

asset, Argentina's bank pointed out the bonds would yield an average of 5 per

cent and were expected to bring in $81m a year.

The biggest shock of all - and one that triggered the biggest one-day fall in the

gold price for four years - came in October when a panel of Swiss experts

suggested their country should sell more than half its reserves. Switzerland,

which has a law forbidding such sales, had fervently supported the idea that

prudent countries should have a reasonable stock of gold and had refused to

sell an ounce.

There have been big pro-fits made from gold's fall from grace. Some big US

commercial banks have made a killing in the last year or so by selling gold

short - selling gold they do not own in the expectation they can buy it at a

lower price before they have to deliver.

The gold market is now very much in the hands of these banks and New York

investment funds, according to Timothy Green, who has been tracking the

gold business for 30 years. He suggests that the trade has changed more in

that time than in the preceding 4,000 years.

In his book World of Gold*, Green argues that the ending of a fixed price for

gold by international governments in 1968 and the transformation in

communications have combined to change the gold market. "For many new

players in the market, volatility, not stability, was the chief attraction; to them it

did not matter whether the price went up or down, as long as it moved. The

communications network brought everyone together, round the world, round

the clock and made the gold price a moveable feast."

Nevertheless, there are still many millions of people who retain a deep faith in

gold. There are large parts of Asia where only a social revolution could

change the gold habit. In India, a farmer buys gold when the monsoons bring

good harvests and he sells it when the rains don't come.

Gold rings and necklaces are lavished on newborn Indian children and an

Indian bride is weighed down with gold jewellery. For an Indian woman,

prevented by Hindu law from having any proprietary rights over her father's or

husband's property, personal gold ornaments and jewellery offer financial

security.

Gold has retained symbolic value in the straight-forward transactions of rural

India, but it has been diminished by the modern trading techniques in

exchanges in the US and Europe. The money flowing into physical gold -

more than $27bn this year - is overwhelmed by amounts ploughed into

securities that are derived from gold.

In London in October, for example, gold worth $13.6bn a day was traded.

Using exotic cocktails of options, futures and warrants, the banks and funds

are "relieved of the acute embarrassment of having to take delivery of a single

ounce," according to Timothy Green.

But how long will gold's reserve of appeal last in developing countries?

"Gold," says Rob Weinberg, analyst at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, "fills many

different roles simultaneously. It can be an adornment and an industrial metal;

a means of displaying wealth and an anonymous form of saving; an insurance

policy and a gambling chip; it is an international reserve asset yet officially it is

not money."

In the western world more people are buying gold to wear, as jewellery or

watches, because it makes them feel good and they can pretend to themselves

that these objects will hold their value. They conveniently ignore the fact that

the cost of design, production, profit and taxes usually far outstrips the value

of the gold content.

But when it comes to bullion as an investment, and as a measure of national

wealth, gold is a goner. The reverse alchemy is almost complete. Eddie

George, governor of the Bank of England, like Fort Knox, one of the great

citadels of gold, recently told a European parliamentary committee: "Whereas

gold used to be seen as a good asset, it is now seen as the bottom of the pile."

John I don't have an answer on ABX 4 billion fixed assets, but I will be looking that up. Hopefully someone will beat me to it, as I will be busy all day at a very large gun show. I'll be like a kid in a candy store HA HA. BTW, if those prices are going south also then I will be dusting off the deflation scenarios for another look.

http://www.abcnews.com:80/sections/business/korea1212/index.html

old has always been more than a precious metal - men have even lost their
lives for it. But no longer. Gold has fallen from grace and is now a mere metal and a bad investment. Kenneth Gooding explains why most of the glister has disappeared. Gold, frankincense and myrrh. The three wise men deemed these gifts suitable for the King of Kings two millenniums ago. It says something about gold's staying power that today it is still a suitable gift for a sovereign, though a more thoughtful wise man may swap the precious metal for US Treasury bonds.

Mankind's fascination with gold goes back much further than 2,000 years. For primitive man, the attraction was aesthetic. Gold glinted at him from streams and river beds. He found it so malleable that, even cold, it could be hammered into crude ornaments and artefacts. Beauty and scarcity gave gold mystical appeal, and it became the stuff of temples, icons, idols, and offerings to the gods.

Ancient Egypt and Rome drew much power from gold, mined by slaves in
cnditions of unbelievable misery. "There is absolutely no consideration nor relaxation for sick or maimed, for aged man or weak woman," wrote the
historian Diodorus in the 2nd century BC.

Similar conditions existed in Siberian gold mines up to the 1960s and miners still descend the deep shafts of South Africa knowing that, even if they obey the safety rules, there is no guarantee they will come out alive. For the rich, and for the poor who sought it, gold was a tangible, long-term store of wealth, acceptable anywhere, a safe haven at times of disaster.

But gold is not what it once was. The image has been tarnished - apart from a couple of blips, its price has been drifting downwards for more than a decade. This week the price was the lowest for 18 years.
The 1987 stock market crash, the Gulf war and a meltdown of Asia's financial markets did not cause the expected rush for gold.

So, has gold had its day, at least as an investment? Has the glister gone? Is it only the sentimental and the gold obsessed, the bugs, who still seek it out and, as Virgil put it, have the "cursed craving for gold"?

Ted Arnold has no craving. He is a gold bear and metals specialist at the
Merrill Lynch financial services group: "The reality is that gold is now a commodity just like any other. Many gold miners still think gold is something special or magical and not subject to the usual laws of supply and demand like copper or zinc or nickel. But it is."

But will everyone everywhere eventually stop viewing gold as an investment? Is the end of the affair an inevitable outcome of modernisation, when money transfers are automatic and unseen, and there is talk that cash itself will disappear? When it became clear that people needed a medium of exchange, gold was the medium of choice. Croesus, King of Lydia, is credited with ordering the first gold coins to be struck in 550 BC.

Gold's great appeal was its indestructability. It does not tarnish like silver and is generally not corroded by acid. Gold coins have been recovered from sunken treasure ships looking as bright as new. And the metal still has its modern moments. There was a rush to gold savings accounts in Japan after television newcasts of the 1995 Kobe earthquake showed an old woman tearing at the rubble of her house and triumphantly pulling out an unscathed,glittering gold bar.

There are estimates, not uncontested, that until 1850 only 10,000 tonnes of gold had ever been mined. The 1848-49 Californian gold rush changed all that, followed by the discovery of huge gold fields in South Africa in the 1890s. There was another belated rush in 1980 after the price jumped to $850 - almost three times its present price.

Miners have been using new techniques and modern technology to locate and
remove the gold. Last year, a record 2,350 tonnes were dug from the world's mines, or 75.56m ounces.

A turning point occurred when gold became a standard measure of wealth,
personal and national. Formal "gold standards" were introduced by trading
nations after the Californian rush ensured there was enough metal available.

Britain's began in 1816 and the rest of Europe followed in the 1870s. The US did not finally divorce itself from a silver-gold standard until 1900, about the same time as India.

The gold standard was meant to discipline an economy. The price was fixed
and the currency was redeemable in gold. The UK gave up this system in
1919 but it persisted in the US until 1933.

Between the 1930s and 1972 there was an "international gold exchange
standard" which involved central banks supplementing their gold reserves with certain key currencies that, in theory, could be redeemed for gold.
All this led to central banks building substantial stocks of gold and caused one Yale professor, Robert Triffin, famously to remark: "Nobody could ever have conceived of a more absurd waste of human resources than to dig gold in distant corners of the earth for the sole purpose of transporting it and reburying it immediately afterwards in other deep holes, especially excavated to receive it and heavily guarded to protect it."

Today, most gold goes to make jewellery rather than into central bank vaults. According to the Gold Fields Mineral Services consultancy, 2,807 tonnes of gold was used by jewellery makers last year.
Unreconstructed gold bulls emphasise that this was far more than the 2,350 tonnes that came out of mines during the year. Demand for gold this year has been at record levels - Indians, for example, bought more in the first nine months than in the whole of 1996 - yet the dollar price of gold has slumped by 20 per cent. The price has fallen because of increasing fears that central banks will steadily sell off gold - they still have 37,000 tonnes tucked away in vaults, equivalent to more than 12 years' supply.

The new breed of central banker is not dazzled by gold and sees little point in having an asset that just takes up storage space. Some have been getting a modest return by lending gold to bullion banks, earning 1 or 2 per cent and adding to market liquidity.

That did not satisfy performance-oriented bankers, economic rationalists who were not charmed by the romance of gold. For them, as for the 14th century Scottish poet Andrew of Wyntoun, "Oure gold wes changyd into lede". So the central bankers started selling.

The Netherlands said in January that it had sold 300 tonnes, the fourth
disposal since 1989; since then it has cut gold reserves by 20 per cent. In July, Australia shook the market by announcing that it had reduced its gold reserves by two-thirds - even a leading gold producer seemed to have lost the faith. And, two weeks ago, Argentina revealed it had sold its entire gold reserves in the first half of this year, all 124 tonnes, and invested the proceeds, $1.46bn, in US Treasury bonds.

Echoing the views of other central banks that complain gold is an unproductive asset, Argentina's bank pointed out the bonds would yield an average of 5 per cent and were expected to bring in $81m a year.

The biggest shock of all - and one that triggered the biggest one-day fall in the gold price for four years - came in October when a panel of Swiss experts suggested their country should sell more than half its reserves. Switzerland,which has a law forbidding such sales, had fervently supported the idea that prudent countries should have a reasonable stock of gold and had refused to sell an ounce.

There have been big profits made from gold's fall from grace. Some big US
commercial banks have made a killing in the last year or so by selling gold short - selling gold they do not own in the expectation they can buy it at a lower price before they have to deliver.

The gold market is now very much in the hands of these banks and New York
investment funds, according to Timothy Green, who has been tracking the
gold business for 30 years. He suggests that the trade has changed more in that time than in the preceding 4,000 years.

In his book World of Gold*, Green argues that the ending of a fixed price for gold by international governments in 1968 and the transformation in communications have combined to change the gold market. "For many new
players in the market, volatility, not stability, was the chief attraction; to them it did not matter whether the price went up or down, as long as it moved. The communications network brought everyone together, round the world, round the clock and made the gold price a moveable feast."

Nevertheless, there are still many millions of people who retain a deep faith in gold. There are large parts of Asia where only a social revolution could change the gold habit. In India, a farmer buys gold when the monsoons bring good harvests and he sells it when the rains don't come. Gold rings and necklaces are lavished on newborn Indian children and an Indian bride is weighed down with gold jewellery. For an Indian woman, prevented by Hindu law from having any proprietary rights over her father's or husband's property, personal gold ornaments and jewellery offer financial security.

Gold has retained symbolic value in the straight-forward transactions of rural India, but it has been diminished by the modern trading techniques in exchanges in the US and Europe. The money flowing into physical gold -
more than $27bn this year - is overwhelmed by amounts ploughed into
securities that are derived from gold.

In London in October, for example, gold worth $13.6bn a day was traded.
Using exotic cocktails of options, futures and warrants, the banks and funds are "relieved of the acute embarrassment of having to take delivery of a single ounce," according to Timothy Green.

But how long will gold's reserve of appeal last in developing countries?
"Gold," says Rob Weinberg, analyst at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, "fills many different roles simultaneously. It can be an adornment and an industrial metal; a means of displaying wealth and an anonymous form of saving; an insurance policy and a gambling chip; it is an international reserve asset yet officially it is not money."

In the western world more people are buying gold to wear, as jewellery or
watches, because it makes them feel good and they can pretend to themselves that these objects will hold their value. They conveniently ignore the fact that the cost of design, production, profit and taxes usually far outstrips the value of the gold content.

But when it comes to bullion as an investment, and as a measure of national wealth, gold is a goner. The reverse alchemy is almost complete. Eddie George, governor of the Bank of England, like Fort Knox, one of the great citadels of gold, recently told a European parliamentary committee: "Whereas gold used to be seen as a good asset, it is now seen as the bottom of the pile."

* World of Gold, Rosendale Press, 21.

It might be interesting to see if the NY Times does a similar feature
this Sunday or next...

So much being written about the "death of gold." From NO MERCY's post earlier, this excerpt:

Eddie George, governor of the Bank of England, like Fort Knox, one of the great citadels of gold, recently told a European parliamentary committee: "Whereas gold used to be seen as a good asset, it is now seen as the bottom of the pile."

Now what was that old saw about buying low and selling high?

IMF chief calls for $160bn increase

Asia's financial crisis has prompted the head of the International Monetary Fund to request a $160bn increase in the organisation's capital base, far more than its members agreed less than three months ago. Michel Camdessus, the IMF's managing director, has warned his board that the fund's finances have deteriorated significantly since its annual meeting in September - especially because of its $21bn loan to South Korea.

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/

When the Arab states get tired of US$14./bbl...gold will be delivered...and it will not be a natural childbirth. Their economies are suffering immensely at the hands of the West...you know they're quite tired of it. But Uncle Sam sure has big boats..."Abdulah, Look at that one over there!" "Damn!"

This guy is a dirtbag. Plain and simple, what idiot would allow such a fool to adminstrate a fund wherein he cannot even come close to the amount needed.

There have been a ton of estimates that not nearly enough money has been allocated. Not to mention the fact that the loans are accomplishing nothing save throwing more of the American taxpayers money down the tanker.

Clinton is on thin ice, there will be political hell to pay for what is going on now. Watch printin Clinton and the Executive powers act. His stupidity and arrogance will throw the US into political upheavel.

Clinton is one dangerous idiot, Camdesuss a socialist dirtbag.

Come now, Tolerant, what is it you're trying to say. Don't mince words ( or should I say "officials" ) .

Camdessus reports to Clinton...Hopefully, Clinton will have to report to Congress ( our only hope ) . We are buying S. Korea...but the price keeps going up. It has become overpriced, perhaps.

Think about all those industrious, poor people going to work for us for nothing except some paper. Cheap goods for all us Westerners. Low inflation and good times at their expense.

The average American family has $27,000. in securities. If the Asian problems continue to worsen, Americans will lose their butts...They ( collectively ) have a lot riding on the paper game...they may tell their congressmen to give Korea all they want.

the FT reports the SKorea 'loan' at 21bn, where most major press
have gone along with the 57bn figure... ( which, as I understand it,
is dibs and dabs from US, et.al. It is mind boggling to this observer.
that as fiat money becomes ever more ephemeral, the financial
world's press announces gold's "death".
It is the "Day of the Pricers"

Most of one's energy nowadays is spent in trying to filter news,
i.e., separating the wheat from the chaff. Tiring work. Back to which
I must get...take care...

Have you read the Privateer page I posted this early a.m. It makes for interesting reading.

In addition. I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Keyes. He is now publicly entering the Ron Brown affair. This is very interesting because this man has held position in the Government.

This will get ugly in the very near future.

Dear Mr. Camdesuss, I have an all expense paid ( the way you are used to traveling on the taxpayers back ) trip to Korea. The next time you are here sleeping with my dog you can pick them up in the mailbox on the side of the doghouse.

PS You still owe me for that infection you gave my dog. I only accept gold or silver you socialist dirtbag.

Major Gold Trading Centers Around the World. Many Gold price links, including closing bullion and gold coin prices. Also shows live GOLD TRADING in London, Singapore, Tokyo & the COMEX:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

Bank of Canada's 4th increase this year ( prime now at 6% ) won't be enough to stem the downtrend of the Can $.

Most Cdn economists & analsysts are not well informed of the current events around the world ( or at least pretend not to be so in public ) and underestimate the flow of capital ( nervous investors ) worlwide.

The fundamentals ( trade balance ) are beginning to look shaky.

The US $ has to be devalued.

I highly suggest a subscription to their newsletter. Excellent reading and information. The following is an excerpt from the beginning of an article. You asked me a while back about the US - England / US - Japan relationship, fill in the blanks here. Interesting huh?

"Events of this second fiscal year have shown to what extent our monetary systems, both great and small, have become interdependent, and how internationalism in monetary matters is not merely a theory or a desirable evolution but an accomplished fact. The tidal wave of uncertainty and fear which endangered several national currencies and some banking systems, originated in _______, swept quickly on to ________ and _________, and after devastating those areas, flowed onward to _______ _________ and the ________________ countries, sweeping down their currencies, and then, backwashing into the United States, carried with it unusual demands upon the American gold supply and credit system. No such widespread effects, which soon extended to _______ also, could have occurred except for the already existing essential unity of international finance and monetary relationship, which ignores political and geographical frontiers. And this interdependence is not confined to the field of finance, but penetrates much farther into the whole economic structure of the various countries. The indices of production, employment, trade and profits show to an astounding degree the same recurrent tendencies in almost every country in the world. All the evidence available leads to the conclusion that any hope that a single country may achieve prosperity apart from the rest of the world would indeed be based on an insecure foundation." -Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) Second Annual Report, May 1932 ( emphasis added ) .

Brave New World, New Paradigm - Horsepucky!!!

PS Get Camdesuss!!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971212/korea_japan_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971212/thailand_baht_1stld_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971212/swiss_philippines_ma_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/971211/fitch_ibca_daiwa_sec_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/971210/dermalay_industries_1.html

Kamikaze Korean Currency Will Sink Japanese Banking System

Amid Won Woes Korean Paper Money Loses 70% of Its Value

Worldwide Market Rout Follows Korean Krisis

SOMETHING IS AFOOT! ALL WEEK the Worlds Largest Stock Exchanges are awash in RED... and those few that are up, barely eked out small gains. Some exchanges plummeted 5-7%. We are talking down markets in ALL the Americas, Europe, Asian & Pacific countries, Africa and the Middle-East... vivid testament to the worsening Domino Effect gripping the entire globe.

It doesn't take a double Ph.D. in Mathematics AND Finance to understand the IMFs ludicrous folly will NOT prevent the Asian Banking Debacle looming on the horizon of the Land of the SETTING Sun... and the horrific ramifications which inevitably will ensue.

THIS is the LATEST analysis of the Asian Banking Domino Effect by John Kutyn -
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn120497.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971212/oil_markets_1stld_1.html

nomercy: I hope you are right about raising C$ rates. Most Canadian economists agree with you despite your disparaging comments about their world wide understanding. I hope for a 10 % rate for a few months atleast so I can lock in some good 12 % or more stripped bonds in my RRSP. Now that the B of Canada has decided to match US rates there is a good chance 1998 growth will fall from the current 4.1 to 3.5% in 1998. Should reduce the trend to inflation decisively

Time 1925

Place Oso Negro flophouse - Tampico Mexico

The Old Man Speaks -

"Why is gold worth 20 bucks an ounce?"

"well 1000 men say go searching for gold"

"after 6 months say one of ems lucky"

"one out of a thousand"

" his find represents not only his labour but that of 999 others to boot"

" uh thats 6000 months or 500 years scrambling over mountains going hungry and thirsty"

"an ounce of gold mister is worth what it is because of the human labour that went into the finding and the getting of it"

"Theres no other explanation. Gold itself aint good for nothing cept jewellery or gold teeth"

Spoken by Walter Huston in the film "Treasure of Sierra Madre" - Directed by John Huston

with H Bogart and Tim Holt.

From the Book of the same name by the mysterious B. Traven

All serious gold bugs should see this film and read this book at all

costs. And pray that none of winds up like Fred C Dobbs.

ANOTHER's post of 21:00 approx. last night provides very intriguing, thought provoking reading. I had to read three times....I think I got it.

Since SDRer turned me on to a closer look at IMF goings on, I'm not so sure that things are as they are meant to appear. If you just sit back and observe for a moment that the IMF, under Camdessus, has gone into every crisis having encouraged the debt formation which led to its need to intervene, and also it always comes out with a bigger role in international financial affairs, as well as a bigger funding commitment from major countries then it's not inconceivable to me that the goal of a one world central bank isn't the goal being pursued. It is conceivable that central planning, writ large on a global scale for the major world economies is his agenda. I'm probably just being paranoid about this, but give Camdessus credit for being smart for a moment, and see if this makes sense to you.

What do you think, SDRer?

Pray tell, what do you think Another was saying?

No question. I still say get Camdesuss. This dirtbag meddling,socialist is funding his ( ? ) game with my money and the money of the American tax payer and I say get him now. He is a dangerous bastard and printin Clinton is aiding and helping him while sending the globe into a debt which leads to chaos.

Things are bad enough now. A little while longer and I think you will see wholesale revolution around the globe. Korea is very close, Japan is very close.

There are not enough UN troops to go around. Printin Clinton is a very dangerous idiot. Camdessus and Clinton are waterboys for much bigger fish. That is obvious.

Look for a huge squeeze to be put on Clinton in the coming hours and days. He is acting as if he were King and there are vast portions of the American population that despise him.

In a recent edition of the Privateer the statement is made that there are 2 beneficiaries in any IMF bailout: the country that gets the money and the US. Does anyone understand this and if so please post your enlightenment.

Deepening South Korean Crisis to SEVERELY Hurt Japan

By Kanta Watanabe

"TOKYO, Dec 12 ( Reuters ) - The deepening economic crisis in South Korea could deal a severe blow to Japan's manufacturing and financial sectors, economists in Tokyo said on Friday."

"Japanese manufacturers are expected to suffer a double punch of a slowdown in their exports to South Korea, Japan's second-largest export market after the United States, and also stiffer competition for overseas markets following the Korean currency's freefall."

Amid the Korean currency and stock market turmoil, the Korean Won value of GOLD has soared more than 50% in recent months. And due to Japan's economic inter-dependency with Korea - its second largest trading partner - one may logically predict a serious attack upon the value of Nippon Yen. When this occurs it will unleash Billions of Dollars of Japanese savings, which will seek the safety of GOLD. They WILL NOT FLEE TO T-BONDS, because they are already choking on the inordinate amount they now possess... and are seeking to sell to WHOMEVER!

Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL

Dec 10 - WASHINGTON
It was announced today IN WASHINGTON ( CBS.MW ) THAT JAPANESE INVESTORS have already started unloading their vast horde of U.S. TREASURIES... can it be hard to conclude their money will now flow into GOLD?!

Dec 5 - TOKYO:
Per Shuji Karasawa of the Japanese parliament: Japanese gold holdings are far too low

Dec 5 - TOKYO:
Per Head of Japanese LDP: US Dollar dependence too great, we need more gold to offset excessive Dollar dependence.

In light of this Breaking News, a re-read of the ORACLEs prophetic observations and ultimate consequences for the U.S.
T-Bond market and GOLD WILL PROVE VERY PRODUCTIVE - see series JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & A HARDSPOT:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html

In many ways, our constitution makes the president like a king when it comes to foreign affairs. The founders may not have anticipated how foreign financial "disasters" could be construed as warlike emergencies, and trigger presidential powers beyond what they would have otherwise been willing to grant.

I think if you look over the piece it specifically points out the money going right into the vaults of certain American banks.

Some of what you say is based on certain half truths. The Congress is directly responsible for watch dogging the President and has allowed many Presidents to run amuck without enforcing the Constitution. This President is certainly out of control.

Mr. Keys is one who understands this and I think that there will be huge ramifications coming from his writing to Congress.

Watch, wait and see.

Deflation is currently occurring in some commodities ( copper ) however inflation is occurring in the service industry ( US ) at the rate of over 3% per annum and over 70% of the workers in the US are employed in the service industry.

Whilst the Asia's economic problems will be be deflationary, to some extend, and the PPI will be low ( lower ) the CPI will tend to increase due to the accelarating wage increases.

Thus I forsee higher interest rates in the US and Canada.

The stock markets in both the US & Canada should correct ( bear market ) as interest rates rise and flow of funds away from equities to less riskier investments.

However, I've not discounted a 'systemic financial collapse' of major proportions as derivatives unwound ( unwounding ) .

There has to be a reason for the phenomenal growth in US money supply in recent weeks. Very few have commented on the exposure of US banks in Japan. The Japanese have said they will rescue foreign banks.

Also I heard on CNN Moneyline on Thursday, that the Japanese banks have had a 'small run' as people are panicking and withdrawing funds. ( The Japanese have also increase their printing presses injecting liquidity at a phenomenal speed.

To me that is inflation!

Any ideas why that is happening?

The essential ingredient for reasonably stable world economic conditions is cheap oil. To date, it has been necessary to pay for oil with US dollars...the paper that "always works". The bonfire that has already engulfed several currencies this year will grow unabated until it consumes the dollar. The dollar will no longer buy oil in a manner that seems reasonsable to our historically-oriented minds...regardless of who the buyer is ...with dollars or any other parched currency.
That, and I'm not sure of this condensation of his words, gold will intervene again to provide a basis for this trade requirement, in some manner.
It is interesting to note, that the "hammer" that the IMF is using to coerce S. Korea into compliance is...THAT'S IT FOR YOUR OIL SHIPMENTS...DUST OFF THE BICYCLES! GIVE US A CALL.

SILVER HAS RISEN MORE THAN A BUCK IN RECENT WEEKS

Internationally acclaimed newsletter editor, James Dines, shares his LATEST ON GOLD. Additionally, he calls attention to two of his favorite precious metals stocks: Agnico-Eagle and Stillwater Mining - both are hot-wired to their charts, just CLICK the name. It is also obvious analyst Dines cottons to silver:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines120997.html

I take back what I said. I introduced my opinion on the read. The article does not specifically point to certain banks.

My take is that in the last analysis the US has become the lender of last resort and if the horrendous economic catastrophies in Asia and Japan and elswhere are allowed to continue the United Stated is the country that will get destroyed as that lender of last resort. As the lender of last resort the US is sending money back to itself through the IMF via certain banks IMHO.

I do apologize for my error.

Correction, "The Japanese have said they will rescue foreign banks"

should read "The Japanese have said they will NOT rescue foreign banks"

DA--you must the forward viewing skills that were so popular on KITCO some months ago! George S. Cole did say exactly those words, "the gold stocks are outperforming the bullion" when he stopped by the beach volley ball game yesterday afternoon. He thought that bullion was in fact behaving very well, given the PPI report and the strength in bonds. I mentioned the possible role of the ABX stock buyback in helping the XAU but he felt that had nothing to do with it. He thinks gold may go down a bit from here, but it will just improve its chances for a truly spectacular move upward. He was quite peeved that I had posted Debbie's ramblings about a secular bear in gold. I apologized.

I see what you are saying. IMHO this is terrible. The IMF has no right to do this to the people of Korea. The US President is an idiot. The bad in Korea should be allowed to be taken down by bankruptcy and let the markets make adjustments.

Camdesuss merely continues the game of lending and debt. Why would anyone extend credit and make a loan in this situation.

The entire globe is going to pay in many, many ways for this stupidity.

The politicians and economists will bring the world to its knees.

The action in gold on Friday looked very positive short term to me. With another
negative inflation report the gold and XAU should have gotten pounded. If you're not in
the market already buy the opening Monday with a stop under this week's lows. Whether
you think gold is going up or down makes no difference. If your goal is to make money
these are the kind of trades to look for. The risk is $200 - 400 depending on where you
get in and where the stop is with a target of $325 gold by mid Jan.. That's $3500 - $ 4000
per contract , a risk reward like that is worth taking in any market. If the market is at
290 in Mid Jan you'll still double your money. I prefer futures, if you're using options buy
deep in the money in case market goes side ways. The S&P should find support at
945.00 ( March ) Monday morning.

Nomercy: I assume the Japanase are taking money out of their banks because they fear some will fail. I assume the Japanese are prining all they can to keep enough paper floating around to try to pay their current and expected losses--in devalued money but with enough of it.

tolerant1: I see your point in the end the money comes back to the US. But the point I don't see under consideration here and in very few places during the last few days is that the US is not going to be a big part of the IMF bail out. Currently the US is behind in its "donation" to the IMF so there is no new US money being used. And there is a good chance that the Congress will not allow Clinton to give anymore in the new year--according to some commentators. So if both are true the rest of the world ( Europe ) is going to play and pay the major part of the IMF bailout--undoubtedly in US$.

The IMF makes the loans to eliminate the choas...the chaos provides undermining proof that the central banks, in fact, do not have everything under control. They may have the price of gold under control, but they damn sure do not have the dynamics of international trade under control, at least until oil is no longer a "hammer". I presume the Central Banks of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Dubai, etc. are not sitting on the front row at the get-togethers.

Seating will need to be rearranged soon. Meanwhile, let's look forward to $500. Kias...a hell of a car for 500 smackers...don't you agree? "Now you Korean boys, keep those interest payments coming in on time or we've got a little tariff deal that may interest you."

Such comments by pros like yourself are really helpful to rank amateurs like myself, teaching us the wisdom that only comes from years of trading. You, StradMaster, OldMan, Mr. Disney and other veterans have demonstrated a wide variety of talent, wit, skill, knowledge. You have given many references and tips on how to find the needed information.

You temper the mindless optimism ( or pessemism as the case might be ) of us amateurs with your experiance.

But I would take one small issue with your pithy observations about us small fish who school and nibble at the long stocks and physicals. Some of us are doing so for specific reasons, unrelated to our ignorance.

In my case I invest in such things only with a portion of my money, specifically that fraction which is otherwise useless to me in supporting my lifestyle and family. I buy metals only with that subfraction which is most vulnerable to involuntary loss via our most unreasonable and arbitrary civil court system.

My nest egg is just that, a way of converting money to material which is easily vanished or destroyed should I be that unlucky one in four persons of my particular profession who gets sued by some goofball whith delusions of entitlement to our wealth. Then loses same wealth via a jury composed of welfare mothers, retired bus drivers and "civil rights advocates".

One doesn't have to envision crackpot scenerios of global money meltdown or invasion to develop such a mindset. One has only to count on his fingers the number of persons with my type job in my town and then the number who've lost everything in the court, with so called "excessive awards", over the normal range of liability insurance. At last count this was three in approxiamtely two dozen.

So rather than paying the money to buy more insurance to make myself a bigger litigation target ( we're talking in the $15,000 to $25,000 range for higher policy limits! ) I prefer to buy and "lose money" in pm's.

( For the non-American=English speakers in the title of this post is a cryptic pun on the word "resent", poking fun at my own ethnic roots. It is from a 20 year old US T.V. show about rural Americans. )

Another's posts all along have been about a massively evil long term planned manipulation of free markets in oil and gold. If we are to believe him, then he is a part of it and I would trust him as far as I could throw a bar of gold. If some oil producers had ( have ) such an agreement for a back door access to cheap gold, then the CBs are truly stupid because the world oil market has and will continue to set the price for oil.

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

Your posting dated Saturday......

If Gold is dead, why the volume of transactions through the LMBA. Who controls this market?! Rothchilds.

If Gold is dead, when can we expect the Bank of England, Swiss, Yanks ( sorry Lads, it that politically incorrect ) etc to off load ALL their holdings ?! Who has a fundamental control / influence on these Central Banks?! Rothchilds.

If currancies around the world and their backing were "SO" robust, gold would indeed simply be a commodity. However if you took time to review currencies and their standing relative to gold ( werner @ pacific.commerce.ubc.ca ) you would find that in times of trouble gold comes into its own.

US Bonds, do you honestly expect ongoing growth of the US markets ( S&P, Dow Jones ) , at the expense of Asia in particular the Japanese?! Do you expect that "flooding" Asia with US dollars will solv

Has anyone considered in all the euphoria over silver's so-called spectacular rise of a buck the past few days/weeks, that last month's euphoria to the 540 level was merely driven by the pros in the pit short sqeezing the lambkins in the hinterland, regardless that fundmentals might show a temporary warehouse storage problem for delivery against the Dec contracts? Has anyone further considered that the drop in platinum could also be connected to the fact that silver and platinum are most often found together in the mine, unlike gold which is never found with silver, and that miners might kick up the pace to get more silver to deliver in Mar, thereby creating additional platinum for delivery in Apr? Did anyone notice that after the delivery of Dec was complete that silver dropped back to the 4.60-75 level surenuff fast? Ya'll hide and watch, ya'hear?

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia. Your posting dated Saturday......

If Gold is dead, why the volume of transactions through the LMBA. Who controls this market?! Rothchilds. If Gold is dead, when can we expect the Bank of England, Swiss, Yanks ( sorry Lads, it that politically incorrect ) etc to off load ALL their holdings ?! Who has a fundamental control / influence on these Central Banks?! Rothchilds. If currancies around the world and their backing were "SO" robust, gold would indeed simply be a commodity. However if you took time to review currencies and their standing relative to gold ( werner @ pacific.commerce.ubc.ca ) you would find that in times of trouble gold comes into its own.

US Bonds, do you honestly expect ongoing growth of the US markets ( S&P, Dow Jones ) , at the expense of Asia in particular the Japanese?! Do you expect that "flooding" Asia with US dollars will solve the problem?! It may produce cheap goods, but the

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia. Your posting dated Saturday...... If Gold is dead, why the volume of transactions through the LMBA. Who controls this market?! Rothchilds. If Gold is dead, when can we expect the Bank of England, Swiss, Yanks ( sorry Lads, it that politically incorrect ) etc to off load ALL their holdings ?! Who has a fundamental control / influence on these Central Banks?! Rothchilds. If currancies around the world and their backing were "SO" robust, gold would indeed simply be a commodity. However if you took time to review currencies and their standing relative to gold ( werner @ pacific.commerce.ubc.ca ) you would find that in times of trouble gold comes into its own. US Bonds, do you honestly expect ongoing growth of the US markets ( S&P, Dow Jones ) , at the expense of Asia in particular the Japanese?! Do you expect that "flooding" Asia with US dollars will solve the problem?! It may produce cheap goods, but the problem will still be there. Rothchilds have financed gold mining around the world for a long time. In the case of South Africa, mining during the last hundred years has produced 1 200 million ounces of gold....do you believe that they are simply going to sell out, give it away. I would suggest that new markets are being established for gold via Japan, China etc. Even in todays market at the current gold price, the discovery of a gold resource/reserve = wealth.

Aye, Haggis

I've just finished reading a great little book called Jesse Livermore
Speculator KIng by Paul Sarnoff. Livermore was the great bear of the
1920's in New York. It's really a very interesting and quite readable book
( 120 pages or so ) . Checked it out at my local library.

G'Day,

Sorry but you do not have your geological facts correct. Gold, platinium and silver may or may not occur together dependent upon the geological model/environment. There are no hard and fast rules. Check out through " Mineral Deposit Models" US Geological Survey Bulletin 1693

Aye, Haggis

Texasgoldpost - that's news to me, but then I ain't a miner ( or a minor ) that silver and gold are never found in the same mine, it'll be news too the the Martha Hill Mine in the Coromandel, Some dim memory also tells me that Comstock had a bucket load of gold, however, I guess you know. Actually I've not heard of silver and plat from same mine, but am less certain about that, usually the PGMs are found together,but in different concentrations, all above.... if memory serves.

Interesting, though your trading ideas on silver/plat.


Carl I agree that there is a air of mendacity and meretriciousness about another's posts, yet i appreciate the mental exercise s/he leads us in.


all together now, star jumps, then twice around the back paddock

I see the problem as one wherein the US$ is the money of the world at this specific moment. It must be protected to keep the lending/credit game open and operating.

The US and the instrument of the worldwide rip-off the US$ benefits simply by the game continuing. There are so many bad political "deals" in this whole sordid affair that it appears that applying rules, the norm and other logical/decent spheres of thought becomes not only discouraging but futile. Each piece of this whore's puzzle is changed with each move as the players must invent/change rules?, that long ago existed but no longer apply to a deceitfully foul short term profit in both money and political gain.

The short term political gain is now destroying the mechanics of the rip-off artists and is creating the reverse and complete opposite effect intended from the beginning. The money is now telling the politician that the game is up.

Instead of fixing the problem that is the WB, BIS, IMF, FED, etc. ad nauseum, mixed in with the criminal greed and short term self gratifying lust of the politician they are perpetuating the very death of the paper and system they created.

Who will suffer. Hopefully these bastards that will meet in Washington shortly under the guise of a meeting to help the very people they are robbing.

You don't let fox guard the hen house.

Avalon,
now perhaps look for the real oil "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" Edwin Lefevre ( It is widely believed that this is actually Jesse Livermore's autobiography ) this and several other excellent books of yore have recently been re-published by Wiley Investment Classics ( Read also Where are the Customer's Yachts? )

the early aurator catches the worm

Haggiss Och Aye

could you check the URL of your 11:00 please

Thanks for your suggestion. That is also another that is on my list to read.

Can you suggest a "beginners" book re technical analyis ?

G'Day,

Does anyone have any information concerning Clinton and his days at Oxford University as a Rhodes Scholar. Is he a "Fabian" = Socialist?!

Aye, Haggis

Go to any search engine and type in impeach clinton and you should get many pages that discuss the subject. I think it will be hard to find any out there that do not have a slant one way or the other.

Personally I would not spit on him if he were on fire. Just in case my previous posts were unclear.

G'Day,

Spot on analysis. Useful to check werner@pacific.commerce.ubc.ca, this outlines gold silver and platinium against all major currancies in the world. It is worth pointing out that SILVER is rising against ALL currancies, even including the Swiss Franc.

Aye, Haggis.

Im a dangerous one because my mind flits to dark corners and chews on probabilities, to whit: when Argentina announced its sale of gold and purchase of US t-bonds ( I no longer use a Capital T for US debt ) I thought, the Germans wont buy anymore, , the Europeans , generally, wont buy anymore, the Japanese wont buy anymore so RR is down to pushing them in Argentina...wonder what the sweetener was? Make the announcement that youre selling gold in favor of US bonds and you dont have to sell the gold or take delivery of the bonds? ( :- ) ) 

With regard to the WorldBank/IMF: after the fall of the wall, and the much touted End of History, there was a great deal written about dissolving the WB/IMF, whose job was 1 ) incompetently handled ( Tolerant1 pounding the table, yelling YES! ) and 2 ) better addressed by the private sector. AG made several comments to this effect, if I remember rightly. Then, in 1993 or 4 something behind the signs shifted rather dramatically, and turf wars began re: appointments and such like.

I want to believe ( perhaps, need to believe ) that there are men and women who are not moral bankrupts, and who see the necessity--if the system is to be salvaged--of a global financial presence that is dedicated to fiscal prudence, and out of the politicians hands ( fiscally prudent politician is an oxymoron ) .
I believe that we are witness to the first major battle in this war ( all that has gone before being in the skirmish category ) .

Aurator@augmentingwordsalwayswithgreatpleasure
I find a charming little book that you would like: Mrs. Byrne's
Dictionary of Unusual, Obscure and Preposterous Words, by Josefa Heifetz Byrne. Here is one that possibly describes us: iogolepts ( word
maniacs ) .

Internationally acclaimed analyst Gene Inger, is beginning to become interested in GOLDs prospects. ...no doubt the yellow metal is somewhere near at least an interim low point. We view it as a value buy, but not very good as a hedge. As far as gold goes, we prefer stocks to bullion. His complete intra-week report at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger121197.html

Avalon -

Well the bible ( to me ) is Schwager's "A complete guide to the future's market" mine's 84 edition, bound to have been updated. Where are you? there is an excellent Aussie Book, Derivatives decoded by Edna Carew, an iconoclastic English book The beginner's guide to Charting - Alistair Blair. And a pot load of info on-line
have a look at the Links page above there are several links for tutorials, and there's a fantastic one somewhere on candlestick analysis that I think Byron posted, or was that elf? Thing is, that's a big field, there are people who spend decades with their abacuses and graph paper ( and 1990's equivalents ) it is not for the amateurs ( like me ) who have learned enough to believe that it is mostly hokum. Mostly, not all.
The hard bit is separating the hokum from the wampaum. One very good way to do that is to lurk here for a few months.

auralightingthehokumpiperator

Others I'm sure will jump in...

Well. I just read through my personnel file from my previous
employer. All references to the real reason I resigned have
been removed. My letter of resignation is "missing", e-mail
that I sent in triplicate to the Dean, Associate Dean and IS
manager is gone, documentation that I had signed and verified
by two other independent witnesses is gone. Everything.

No lawsuit now.

Man. Boise, ID is looking a LOT like Little Rock, Ark. to
me now. I'm glad this is my last day in this city of creeps.

I don't mind Yanks at all. To hell with political correctness. And what does political correctness mean anyway??!?

I even like the Yank thing. I hope ya' don't mind Micks ;- ) . It's all in good fun.

God, I loath politicians ( lawyer turned politician ) .....no offense Tort...too many baaaaaaaaad apples.

Aye....away



what ever happened to bb fisher? I miss his charts and commentary bb. Is he ANOTHER now? although i still give Donald a nod for that one ;- ) eh, big Don?

This would truly be something to see. A fiscally responsible entity that did not answer to nor take instructions from slobs like Clinton and the rest of the idiot criminals pretending to run countries for the good of the people.

Politically Correct

True meaning

Patronizing C_ _ _ Sucker

Avalon,

my final suggestion, for now, is to type Trader into this search engine, don't forget to report back what you have learned ( I have lost my URL to the Traders Press that can supply most books I mentioned}

http://www.inference.com/ifind/index.html

SDRer

Sounds like my sort of book! As is the Devils Dictionary of Ambrose Bierce

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/8109/

Now, these SDRs, I got a little lost in your revolving calculations expressing currencies in SDRs and dollars, could you perhaps e-mail those posts? I am wondering whether that little gold/SDR conversion I found a week or two ago is still operating and whether that may provide a clue to how this confetti is actually "valued"

I am taking a different stance on this than tolerant1. If Camdessus and the IMF can't paper over these cracks soon, the trickle becomes a flood. But this asian contagion can still be contained, and, tolerant1, imho, walking away from korea with a laiss-faire - let the market decide, will cripple the country for decades. May I suggest that you consider reading Kindelberger's Manias Panics and Crashes, the last few chapters deal with the idea of a lender of last resort, what has happended in the past with how and when the lender of last resort acted or did not act. The overwhelming lesson seems to be that if the LLR acts too quickly there will not be reserves enough for the major wave, and if the LLR acts too slowly, the economy will tailspin for years.

circumlocutaurator

Is it just me or has anyone ever seen a chart like gold with such a steady orderly almost ruler like decline. I counted it up and in the last 52 trading days gold has been down 33 unch 7 and up 12. 80% of the time going down that is pretty amazing. The one consistency is perfect and unswerving obedience to the trend line to an almost unnatural extent. Comments..

Will do. Thanks for the A.Bierce, Devils Dictionary url. One gets addicted.
back to work

Tolerant1: I did it. Many thanks!
bbl

Ya beat me to the Livermore punch ( "Reminiscences" ) This is THE book to have on speculating if you were forced to have only one on a dessert isle ( perhaps a banana split? ) . With a computer, modem, and isp hookup, of course. Now where did that damn Gilligan go, anyhow?

I disagree. It is my resolute belief that the cure is worse than the disease. Papering over the cracks will solve nothing and will further exacerbate the underlying premise of their actions, which are rotten to start with.

The horror in my mind is the world languishing in the aftermath of their cure. There is no question that all of these parties know what they have created and they also know full well the further slide into depression as they toy with economic forces, people's lives and yes, saving their corrupt and criminal financial system.

They will not suffer by and large. They will eat caviar and drink Champagne, which will be the leftovers of their criminal activities.

The people on the other hand will not have it nearly so well and in fact will once again give up what little gains they have made.

Could one of the regulars show me how to access the previous days
post ? Thanks in advance.

The monthly gold chart is in an absolutely unsustainable angle of decline. This savage bear, while as stiff as most in markets ( 30-40% down - happens all the time ) is but a blip on the monster chart forming over the decades. And, yes, a hint of the unnatural here as well.

Haggis, I see that you reside down under. My assumption was wrong. Isn't haggis and 'aye' a bit-o-Irish?? well now that I know I promise not to call you or any other Aussie a prisoner ;- ) or a Sheep Sha....no I can't do it. Nick ( s ) /NZator would be upset and then I won't be able to visit and whoop 'em on the golfy course. I'll just call you Haggis. And you can call me anything but don't call me late for din-din ;-0

away....aye.....far away

alwayscorrectpoliticallyandsocially

Go to the top of the screen and change the date, then click in the 21:00 opening and hit submit.

Mike Sheller

Yup, mine is foxed, marginalia spill out over the text, the blank pages at the end are full of notes, the darned thing is out on loan again at the moment. I noticed your advice to JTF, after stifling my cry - "come back from the edger JTF, don't follow the lemmings don't jump" I recognised your intuitive brilliance, something is stirring in Mr van der Flick's cerebellum, a small wave? a micro~wave that is sloshing around in there gathering momentum, ever seen locks working on a river, there's time to open the gates, JTF car 54, come in please.

aurabunji

This was LGB's last post if you missed it:

Date:Fri Dec 12 1997 20:40
LGB2_A ( @99% in BET poll think OJ Simpson was innocent )
No further comment needed.

This was in response to my baiting post at 20:38 titled:
Dave in CO ( @70% in BET poll think Ron Brown was murdered ) [true BTW]

BET, for those smart enough to avoid ALL television stations, is the Black Entertainment Television network.

He has kept his word so far. But if he does post again, since he used words like "bigots" on many occasions to attack unbigotted experts ( e.g., Puetz ) when he couldn't rebut their arguments, I hope that the readers here will keep his hypocrisy in mind. Promise I won't waste more space on this unless he comes back.

I read and appreciate your thoughts as usual, friend. I wonder, what it means to "salvage the system." As Aristotle said, "A small mistake in the beginning is a large mistake in the end." To think in terms of salvaging, it is important to begin by keeping in mind that the global financial system is built on currencies and their exchange. If fixing the system means to insulate economies from the consequences of baseless currencies and private and public manipulation made possible by their baseless currency, then saving the system will have to mean creating more and more "forced" wholesale transfers of capital from one economy to another. The exchange of currencies in the free forex market will be the impediment to such fixing and its freedom would be the natural target of such a fixing. ( Institution of currency exchange controls. ) It wouldn't surprise me if that is where one of the factions you allude to would like to head.

The institution of a world wide currency, even if gold backed, seems unthinkable, because it would require the cooperation and mobilization of countries who don't think gold backing is needed for their own currency, so why would they cooperate in such a venture.

I don't see the "system" as fixable in any intelligent way by international bodies. I do see individual governments waking up, perhaps after disaster strikes, to the need to control their own financial destinies by backing their own currencies.

I would appreciate your thoughts on the proposition that fixing the system might be best accomplished by getting rid of the IMF and WB who are intent on fixing the system.

earlier this year there was strong debate as
to the 40 billion $$$ bail-out for mexico and
who would be next. i suggested ( hammered ) that mexico was
still in dire straights along with CANADA. there
was a back-lash that caused phalangeal whip-lash
for those who were 'awake'.

now, where do the dominos stand, and which is next
in line?

mexico and canada are going to start the collapse in
our norte-america. the cover-up of their real
problems has been master-ful enough to create an
out-cry from regulars here at kitco. what is your
cry now?? ----help?----

the peso is headed south as predicted last week. the c$
and the rest of the fiats are/will reap ( ing ) the harvest of
years of mis-management, and the de-coupling of paper
from gold and silver.

how ironic, the task-masters created the scenario for their
dissolution and eventual failure by TRYING to shift the
psychological mind-set "INHERENT" in billions of carbo-astro-earth-anouts. the intrinsic, inherent desire,
to PHYSICALLY possess safe stores of wealth. this 'trait'
of our species was thousands of years in the makin'.....
it ain't gonna be breakin'.... in 20 or 50 years!!!

manipulation causes extremes on both sides of the spectrum. the
middle ground will be seen only in passing, as the ripple effect
slams the riders ( earth-anouts ) from apogee to perigee mercilessly.

the great futurists-----asimov, heinlein, clarke.....

they 'saw' the future, and wrote of mass psychology and
its' implications in the future.

chaos and flux bubba........chaos and flux........
as it is in nature, and the universe.....................

look at the last 30 years, what do you see grass-hopper?

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction' in

physics are at the core of this whole issue. not funnymentals
or tex ( as ) nics, though they do paint the end results.


18 days or less...whatcha gonna do when the paper-tiger comes for you?

'if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood on the shoulders of giants' in

'the farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see'
winston churchill


cherokee--standing on the shoulders of giants, looking backward to
'see' forward.

Agreed. When I gander at the gold chart I find myself remembering the good times of my chilhood. Remember the BIG metal slides. I mean the HUGE ones. The ones that took forever to climb and once you got to the top and looked down you got dizzy and nearly passed out. Well......that is what I am reminded of.

And I see noooooooo soft landing ( sand ) in sight......for now.....ugh...

away...to climb the slide

ottomless

1-800-742-3316 might help. Definitely good-to-know.

Friday's gold action was excellent. Bullion off only $1.20 despite a strong dollar, strong bomds, and good inflation numbers. And gold stocks posted strong gains.

We may now be seeing the beginning of a 1993 re-run when the XAU rose 20% before bullion finally bottomed. Too soon to be sure, but the odds seem very good that the XAU and the gold mutuals have finally troughed even if bullion hasn't.

That was so simple, I feel a little stupid having asked for advice.

Will leave to go lurk for awhile and read some books. For aurator,

I am aussie businessman who lives in Dallas, TX I know how important gold is to Aussie economy, but I am beginner at gold investing.. I am familiar with the privateer's post and think that Bill Buckler has some

very good insight into what is happening. His comments are also

very level headed.

Now, where did I put that reading list ?.

It is completely plausible that the arab oil states ( or at least some of them ) have arranged a deal for themselves with the help of the 'powers', etc. This is not a 'plot' it is business as usual. If they wanted gold as part of the deal then who are you and I to say that doesn't make sense. And if the public gold market could not support their purchases without destroying paper currencies then it CERTAINLY would be in the interests of the 'powers' to acccomodate them, wouldn't it. And if this looked like a credible plan from the vantage point of 10 or 20 years ago then why wouldn't they strike a deal. Much trading is done on the basis of incomplete information, etc.

IMVHO there are no real obvious conflicts in this model ( story ) . AS to its accurancy I suppose we will see.

I paid my dues as a hardrock miner for ten years prior to atttending college. In the course of this work, I worked in several mines where we had both gold and silver present. In eastern utah. In Nevada near Silver Peak ( Mohawk Mine-Owned by Sunshine Mining Co. Of Kellog, Idaho. Now known to us as SSC. ) There were others, but not truly pertinent to my point which is: Gold And silver DO come in conjunction with one another. Check with GRANGES, a Canadian Co. They own a mine in Nevada called the Highcroft, near Wmca.It produces more gold than silver in some parts, and more silver than gold in others!

tolerant1
the cure may be worse than the disease, yes, you may be right. We are human beings, we must continue to look for the cure for others who are suffering. Much of SE Asia's troubles imho is an attempt to graft Western Capitalism into SE culture. Briefly ( therefore incorrectly ) Our liberal democracy extols the virtues of the individual, the separation of God and man, the principles of univeral suffrage and responsibility of elected officials. These are alien concepts ( by and large ) to SE Asia, where the group has virtue, monotheism is a puzzle, suffrage is not universal, officialdom relies on baksheesh.
Baksheesh, you want anything done? it requires backsheesh.
Western minds see backsheesh as corruption, SE minds see baksheesh as social glue, the exchange of favours binds the groups and society together. The IMF, by throwing paper on the bonfire, is trying to buy SE nations time to look again at Western business practices, not just accounting, but also management practices, so that they can do the work to reduce this baksheesh economy, because it gives a misleading picture. Trouble is, the IMF is particularly culturally insensitive, so it may end up ponying up the dough and being hated for its arrogant cultural imperialistic attitudes. Itll lose on both the swings and the roundabouts if Camdessus cant get it right. But I believe he has to try. I am a goldbug, I do not wish for armageddon, only for peace on earth.


auraseasonsgreetings

Personallyican'tfollowittoodamnwell, butihopetoimprovebecauseit'sobviouslyathingofthefuture.eh?

Avalon
"Have you ever seen dallas from a DC9 at night" is just one of my favourite songs from Texas, and I've seen Butch Hancock sing it live.

auracitizenofTexasandgotthepapertoproveitsomewhere

A.J.: You are absolutely right. Silver and gold CAN be found together. Our Chief Geologist has just given the company the pleasant news that it looks like a significant ( to us ) silver claim of ours in Nevada also contains commercial levels of gold. This is not unusual .

More than glad to help. And as to feeling stupid. Let me say that there is many a day and many a post when it is pointed out to me by many here, my "stupid" actions, thoughts or lack thereof.

Welcome to the fray.

You are a voice for Reason in a blessed Season. Ok, NO Armageddon! But only for you. ^ ( :-# #

Schultz, Tzadeak per your Fri Dec 12 1997 23:46 post -

I have on occassion driven past the Fort Worth Western Currency Facility ( was lost in those back roads ) . My word - it is an ultra-modern, spooky looking place on an obscure oil-topped road with poorly marked signs. Triple barbed-wire fences, video cameras on *every* lamp-post in the parking lot, and huge weird airconditioning snout-things on the roof - guess they don't want anyone sampling their air emissions? Reminds me of a SCIF facility.

A quarter of a mile away is a really impressive housing addition - sticks out like a sore thumb given the ragged-out, back-country "Tobacco Road" location - wonder who lives in THAT lap of luxury ( wink, wink, nudge, nudge ) ?

Nonetheless, this place is quite close to the Alliance International Airport that was just built - hmmm - would sure make it easy to fly out planeloads of new currency to Russia ( grin ) if they had to get them to Yeltsin somehow.

What is *really* wierd though is another facility about a mile away that defies my engineer's understanding. It's an array of four huge square cross-section metal towers, with four equally impressive metal trusses holding them up - imagine four, ten story right triangles. There is a support building and a sign that indicates it's an EPRI facility ( these guys are an energy transmission company ) . If you didn't know any better, you'd think someone just had a lark to prototype metal trusses out in the middle of nowhere. The collection as a whole looks like a giant radar array - but as I said - I'm an engineer and I just can't see anything else there. Well, one of the triangles looks like it might barely be a feed. Shultz, do you know what this thing is?

The "new US currency" story has been circulating for years, but all we got was only the slighty different new $100 and $50 bills. Given that the US $5.4 trillion dollar debt can't ever be paid back, that gold is being driven down, I am guessing that:

1 ) The US is and has been quitely buying as much gold as it can, telling the other CBs it's "worthless". Here, have paper. Good as gold ( big grin ) . That their pet press would be telling us the opposite is just par for any disinformation course. Do you really think our current Federal government would tell the American people anything ***close*** to the truth ( like "We'll only be in Bosnia for ONE year" ) . Curious how we haven't seen nor heard of any US gold sales, eh? You'd think a decent disinformation effort would put out at least a token "me-too" press release of US gold sales.

2 ) The US will repudiate it's debt and issue the real, new currency ( plastic notes like the Australian dollar??? ) that Schultz alludes to being stockpiled. This one will be backed by the gold we've been taking off the hands of the rubes in Argentina, Australia, etc. at fire sale prices.

3 ) We've got so many forces in the Middle East, that if Saudi Arabia tried to raise prices, dump the dollar or tell us to get out, we'd just take the place over, having morally rotted out the House of Saud with Western vittles. How hard would it be?

Studio R I dont know who started it but I can't stop it

a.j. thanks for your story yesterday, I reckon you'll find yourself back in that cave one day. Actually spent my otherwise misguided youth as an archaeologist and went into many caves, shelters, dug up human artefacts and felt nothing at all. Just sometimes one can feel the weight of humanity, at the moment i think it depends how long the object has been held and passed down from hand to hand..Or whether the building/cave/whatever was habited for a lengthy period. The Maoris have great stories and legends about particular pieces of pounamu ( NZ Jade ) that are passed down through the generations, these treasures weigh more..

I too have strong feelings and zero desire to witness the human suffering in such a financial debacle.

It is my firm opinion that the sooner we get rid of Horse's Ass Camdesuss, Printin Clinton and Robbin Rubin and the other criminals that we can begin to collectively solve the problems of people worldwide that wish to get on with their lives, do business in far away lands as well as on a local level and not have a bunch of criminals screwing up what should and must be a simple system of HONEST MONEY.

If you remember your history of the Comstock, the miners were looking for
gold and they found some but it was mixed with this annoying black stuff
which they discarded initially until somebody realized it was silver!

If you recall, the Comstock was the greatest silver strike in history and
largely built the city of St. Francis.

Many people on this forum would be better off today if they had listened to Peter Monk's forecast of $280 bullion some months ago. This man is very very rich and clued in to the policies and plans of the global financial elite.

Now Peter Monk is again making an implicit gold price forecast by stepping up to the plate to repurchase 10% of Barrick Gold's stock. Do not bet against him.

I would like to thank all at kitco. I am constantly amazed at the wide range of intellect here. I learn a great deal from all of you. This is virtual round table at it's best. It is like talking to Descartes, Einstein, Leornardo da Vinci, Plato, Jeffrey Dahmer ( Ted ) , Foghorn-Leghorn ( aurator ) , etc. all at once;- ) . There is not a subject out there ( in the universe ) that someone here at kitco couldn't comment on. I LOVE IT!!......you even have the irreverent ones who serve no purpose but to spew crap ( me ) ....but there is one in every bunch of bananas. This is truly a good bunch. Thanks to all!! I mean it......no really.......I am serious now.

Even the hepcatstudioRcoollurkdudehasdecidetojointhefunandmakeammendsanditrulyenjoyhiskeeninsightwithasprinklingofhumoryougocat!

away...to the day

thankfulforkitco

JTF - your posts are GREAT!! your recent essay on the fibonacci 18:26 was a print. I rely on Fibo heavily in my trading and it works VERY WELL!! The laws of nature ( cycles, mathematics, etc ) should NEVER be ignored. keep on it, thanks. Your 'stuff' is a must read ALWAYS.

Thanks for your gentle rebuke. "Thanks" because it could certainly have been more harsh given the difference in our premises. I would only ask you to look again at what Another's forecast for us all would bring. Sentences like what you have will be "taken by people like me." Then bring to mind that this outcome was, according to his story, planned from the beginning. And then note that according to him that if this presumed deal had not taken place, the oil market would have pushed oil prices up over this last many years and what we are left with now is, according to him, a sudden explosion in world oil prices. The analogy of giving out drugs free for years and then sticking it to the addicts comes to mind. I would think, if there is truly an oil shortage, the working out of its consequences in free markets over time would have been much to be preferred.

I find his scenario morally loathsome. Sorry.

 Darn, was about to say same thing geologists, miners, traders, chartists, jewellers, investorts, mathemeticians, physicists, programmers, hobbyists and foghorns ( gee thanks fella ) make this an extraordinary place...

auraleghornover

I have no idea what a leghorn is

Mike: Appreciate your comments. If I appear vacillating, it is because I do not have enough time in the day to focus on the New Physics stuff. You are right, my plans extend far beyond investing. First, I must launch one more of the brood -- college, etc. expenses very soon. Secondly, I can't work full time on this stuff till I can retire -- hence the interest in investing ( and keeping what I have ) .

If first and second are behind me, I can devote my full attention to contributing to the "behind the scenes" activities of a small number of reserchers studing "zero-point energy", the Casimir effect, the Bohm - Ahromov effect, "cold fusion" -- the last now legit at MIT. I haven't chosen the area to focus on, as no-one has come up with a unifying theory.

My investing interests have a double benefit, as it is very clear ( as you and I have cooresponded ) , that investor behavior follows complex extraterrestrial cycles. If the mystery of these cycles can be unraveled, I strongly suspect that a currently unknown physical principle may be identified. I already think the phenomenon does not obey the typical inverse square law of classic physical forces. I only wish that I had more hours in the day -- or I would do more now on solving this mystery -- which I think will be our ticket to extraterrestrial travel.

What you and Poorboys can do to help me, is direct me to any solid analytical work on Astrology - specifically on how it relates to the markets or the environment we live in, as I can quantify these. As you both probalbly know, Crook believes that our entire natural environment responds to extraterrestrial events - such as pulsars with long-period cycles. Many of them have multi-year periods -- not just milliseconds. The cosmic energy flux from these pulsars could very well affect us, as we already know that it affects the earth -- really messes up that carbon dating. Do you know how I can get access to Bradleys oringinal work, or similar analytical work? This kind of stuff is frustratingly sparse.

So -- if I vacillate, it is because I am frustrated!

I'll tell you some of what I know:

First -- NASA has been "reverse engineering" UFO's for years. I have one of their textbooks on the subject ( written by an engineer post-humously ) . No - it does not explain how to make a UFO -- but it is clear that the author has seen at least one. You probably know that numerous astronauts have seen UFO's, and one addressed the United Nations reagarding this matter. So -- we know there is another source of energy out there --presumably untapped by humans.

Second -- Janes Defense weekly has a report of "new technology" craft, both in UK and ( I think ) in the US. Janes is usually reliable.

Third -- Both Takahashi and Wankel ( Japanese companies ) have working electric motor prototypes that appear to have "over unity" operation. I could make one from the plans. Production of such a controversial motor will wait for the next oil crisis -- they are well ahead of the US on this matter ( commercially, at least, where it counts ) . The mechanism appears to be the following:there is a way to modulate the magnetic vector potential without doing any significant amount of ( magnetic ) work, effectively resetting the magnetic poles of the motor to that the work of magnetic repulsion can be "recycled". On the surface this looks like a perpetual motion machine, which is obviously impossible. The answer lies in the "zero point" energy - that mysterious sea of virtual background energy that Dirac referred to years ago. If one can periodically "tweak" that background energy sea in the right way, it appears that it can be tapped. I have not actually seen one of these motors in operation, so I cannot personally vouch for their "overunity" operation. But -- the theory is plausible -- even if it would give most classically trained Physicists nightmares.

Fourth: No one has satisfactorily explained gravity -- not even Einstein, and he would be the first to admit this, if he were alive. There is a very intersting experiment recently reported regarding whether single electrons or protons experience a gravitational force ( I can't recall where -- either Stanford or Cern, I think. The bottom line is that one interpretation of the data is that free electrons or protons do not experience a gravitational attraction to the earth. If that is so, gravity may be due to complex dipole-like shielding effects between neutral atoms. In other words, the attraction of gravity may be due to an unbalanced electromagnetic force. If so, it can be nullified, and the behavior of those numerous UFO sightings can be explained. ( yes - I know about the Condon report -- but you only need one true sighting! ) Can you imagine the significance of locally nullifying gravity? Our ticket to the stars! Always wondered how they built the Pyramid of Giza -- haven't you?

To review: he implies that US$ will burn as well as all other currencies. He suggests that oil will be decoupled from US$ and all currencies by the the introduction of a second method of payment: gold.

His example was US$10 per barrel OR gold at US$10,000 which would equal 0.001 troy ounce per barrel ( a modest revaluation of gold's current price in relationship to US$ ) . You pick how you would like to pay.

The situation would start with virtually everyone holding US$ and very few owning gold at say $300 per troy oz. As the US$ price of gold rises ( due to depreciation of the US$ ) at a certain point triggers anouncement of alternate means of purchasing oil via gold. The price of oil is say US$20 or alternately they are willing to be paid 0.00208 grams of gold per barrel ( at $300 per 31.1 grams gold and $20 barrel oil = 2.08 grams gold per barrel of oil but oil producer has revalued gold by a factor of 1000 so 0.00208 grams is the alternative price ) . What has this just done to the world currency situation? Devalued ALL currencies by a factor of 1000 in relationship to gold. All those who had physical bullion would be ( and one must assume that this includes the arab oil states which would make such a proposal ) in the "cat bird seat". All those who held currencies would strive mightily to purchase US$ or gold. But make no mistake it would be gold that was seen as the ultimate play and US$ as held hostage to oil states which may at ANY TIME CEASE TO TAKE ANY CURRENCY AT ALL AND ONLY RECEIVE GOLD.

Thinking geopolitically: If you had alot of oil ( the life blood of the modern world's economy ) and gold ( the new reserve currency of the world ) and could force a revaluation of all world currencies and therefore all world assets on the order of "1/10th of cent on the dollar" AND AT THE SAME TIME neuter the USA politically, economicly and militarily .. in effect you would be the defacto new world emperor. And you would not hesitate to use your power to rule.

JTF, QED. Gobsmacked, me. Always concerned this foghorn that gravity is a unitary force, where is the levity?

auraspecintheuniverse

Since you are a Legal-can't-find-the-papers-Citizen of Texas I thought you would understand my ( loving ) reference to my good friend foghorn. He is a CLASSIC Saturday morning cartoon character. You know the BIG rooster who says..... ( in the best southernUS drawl ) "Boy, Ah say boy!! Git on ovah heea boy". His character is that of a southern gentleman with brawn and brains. One of my favorite characters.....right up there with ole 'Bugs' himself.....

http://homepages.enterprise.net/mlang/foghorn.html

Now do you remember??

away....

L

I know you'll like 'em. This dude is wise BEYOND his years....

http://homepages.enterprise.net/mlang/foghorn.html


"Ah say boy!!, now stop that boy"!!

away


You made a perfect logical analysis of what ANOTHER said.
You also correctly stated that in order to rule the world, they
also need MILITARY POWER. Honestly, I do not see any way for THEM
to have ENOUGH MILITARY POWER to rule the world... They may have
all the gold in the world ( theoretically ) , but MILITARY POWER,
when and if necessary, will take it away, along with oil and whatever
would seem to be valuable for the MILITARY POWER..

You know who got military power, and at will it always put an end to
any extremes, like it always did..

I can certainly understand your view and partcularly so since this may have a significant impact on most people bringing us into a kind of 'slavery to Pharao', etc. See my just prior post.

But, aside from our sense of the darkness of this, how has this economic and financial "warfare" been anything different from what men have ever done in the past??? It is still 'kingdoms raised up against kingdoms, people raised up against people', no?

I believe there is a God in heaven Who is both Judge, Lord and Saviour. None of this goes on without His allowance. And in the end He will call all, both great and small before His seat of judgement. We either wholeheartedly seek Him above all things to walk after Him OR we go our own way. Daniel 2:31-45 is a vivid declaration of His dealings with empires and nations.

Thankful to know that evil does not go unchecked and it all will be dealt with both now and in the end. We need to strongly respect and seek Him.

I believe a leghorn is a kind of chicken, like a Tyson is a kind of Arkansas chicken, but please don't ask me any questions on economics.

A leghorn is a white chicken ( poultry )

You"re right on about listening to him. It seems to me that he also said many months ago that gold would turn when the EU maneuvering quieted down. I think he said the end of 97. Do you remember this, or am I confabulating out of my wishes?

Sorry, please accept correction to my last post:

You know who got military power, and it will always put
an end to any extremes, like it always did..

EB, pdeep, Allen ( USA ) : Thanks for the interest. Larryn, Kiwi, you out there too? What I will do is periodically report on what I have learned about this area, as it has very wide applications -- any time series research, very powerful video compression algorithms, transforms faster than FFT ( I think ) , and computer animation graphs. Microsoft is involved in a big way. Hopefully the dialog will help us apply this approach to investing.

I'm at work, so I cannot give you web sites to browse right now. But -- I can give you names to look up on a good web browser if you want info right away.

Try "Discrete Wavelet Transform" or "Wavelet Transform".

I was referring to Ingrid Daubuchies of Bell Labs, who made some improvements to the Wavelet Transform analyis. I cannot describe to you the mathemathics of what she did - yet anyway, but it suffices to say that she must have added some parameters that you can change that allows the wavelet model to better fit the data.

What really makes this stuff exciting, by the way, is that after you analyze the data and generate the kinds of wavelets ( one for each Fibonacci number for example ) , I'm pretty sure you can reverse the transform, and extract the non-random time series data. In other words, make a real time computer model. EB - I suspect you are already doing this intuitively in some way -- this must be similar to what the Elliot wave people are doing.

pdeep: In response to your comments, I aggree with you that the wavelet analysis will be skewed ( sp? ) if the time series chosen is not stationary ie, representative of the whole. But -- I think this is true for virtually any time series analysis. I think this type of analysis- which appears to be fancy digital filtering on a brief glance -- should work "real time". One can then adjust the computer model when the rules change, as the precise nature of the market in say 1991 or 1994 might not be the same as in 1997. Of course, like any model of the market, it will not work well when the rules are changing! Boy -- do we know that about gold! I have not used Hurst exponent analysis before, just ordinary autocorrelation. Is this like an expansion of autocorrelation function with an exponential series?

Thank you for your 14:08 and well taken. Also for the good ( I believe ) summary of Another's forecast. I've wondered why he posts. Given that he couldn't care less about whether the rest of us buy gold or not, I'm left with the one implication of his story which runs contrary to what many others here would be doing anyway. That is, sell gold mining shares.

Thanks for the pointer last night to Alan Keyes's request to congress. Have I just missed this story on the broadcast news?

daveincoy2kconspiracynutprogrammeranalystdba

Aurator, Mike Sheller

I too have always thought the book "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" was a good and valuable read, and I recently got a reprint as published by John Wiley. I have a problem with it though. Many years ago ( 30? ) I got a copy from the Berkeley public library, and that book was different from the new reprint I just got. I remember the older one had more punch. Specifically I recall two chapters titled "The Million Dollar Loss", and "The Three Million Dollar Profit". This was about grain trades as I recall. Those chapters ,at least, are not in my new book. Does anyone have a copy with something like those old chapters I seem to remember?

I e.mailed bb fisher the other day. He is lurking.

Allen ( USA ) : you wrote "If you had alot of oil ( the life blood of the modern world's economy ) and gold ( the new reserve currency of the world ) and could force a revaluation of all world currencies and therefore all world assets on the order of "1/10th of cent on the dollar" AND AT THE SAME TIME neuter the USA politically, economicly and militarily .. in effect you would be the defacto new world emperor. And you would not hesitate to..."

High US morals not withstanding, do you REALLY think we'd play nice and say "oh, golly, gee ... yes, you do have us over a barrel ... OK, we'll live in 2nd world misery and pay through the nose for your oil"? The people here in the US who run things are power-addicts in the best tradition of any herion-addict, and like a herion-addict they will do ANYTHING for the next "fix".

Not likely. We'd just take over and make a few Saudi's disappear ala Vince Foster and Ron Brown. Singing:

"It's a beautiful world we're living in,
a sweet romantic place.
Beautiful people everywhere,
the way they comb their hair
makes me want to say
It's a beautiful world for you,
It's a beautiful world for you,
...but not for me"
DEVO, circa 1980s

Yes. You and 260,000,000 other Americans must be tuning to the wrong channels.

One of the classic books on Wall Street - recognized by veteran market players is Reminiscences of A Stock Operator, by Edwin Lefvre ( 1923 ) . It is widely believed to be the biography of Jesse Livermore ( JL ) . In his time his performance in the Street was legendary - and mostly on the short side. One of the most important morals of the book is that The speculators most deadly enemies are: HOPE, IGNORANCE, FEAR AND GREED.

Another interesting treatise on JL is Jesse Livermore: Speculator-King, by Paul Sarnoff ( 1967 ) . An illuminating JL quote in the book was Conceive an idea, then stick to it! Only those who hang on are ever worthwhile. Another was: The public is always wrong!
***
How to Trade in Stocks: The Livermore Formula for Combining Time Element and Price, was authored by JL in 1940. During my own training in Wall Street in the early 1970s, I read and reread this book. I studied it and mentally dissected it, hoping to glean even a hint or whiff of his secrets. I still have my original notes which may be summed up very,very briefly. IMO, the "Livermore Market Key is unadulterated nonsense. The book reflects the pleas of a drowning man. Incomprehensible!" Incidently, it was copyrighted in 1940
***
In Sherry Netherlands Hotel on 5th Avenue at 59th Street, New York City, Jesse Livermore downed a couple of Manhattans in the almost deserted cocktail lounge. Then at exactly 4:15 P.M. he went to the restroom and blew his brains out with one shot. It was November 28, 1940.

On behalf of my many schizo-beings ( it runs in my family ) , all of mes would also like to express my gratitude for the remarkable sharing of thought that occurs here. I have grown immensely since I found you. The price of gold has become an afterthought to my eagerness to "hear" from you...and, well, thanks all.

EB....I'm sure there are many others, as me, that would have drifted away without your encouragement. Your spark ignites a great deal of good.

I agree with your statements regarding disinformation and I truely hope that you are correct about the US buying up the other nations gold at rock bottom prices...

I have stated this time and time again in previous posts to this site...

Could the towers you mentioned be part of a standard comercial radio tower farm for co-locations of PCS Cellular telephony , radio broastcasting , etc. Check the county property records online...if you know who owns the land it could lead you to answer to your questions.

I would imagine the air handlers you describe would be to handle the exhaust.....

Exhaust ??? You exclaim ....from what???????????

My guess is that this "plant" is a "US DOLLAR crematorium facility" ....the final resting place for paper money....I think the average one dollar bill has less than a ten year life after which it is collected and burned...to make room for fresh fiat funds.

I am delighted with the idea. The world needs a knock on the head before we bail ourselves into Dark Ages II. It might just save us from ourselves. Please start on Monday.

SILVER HAS RISEN MORE THAN A BUCK IN RECENT WEEKS

Internationally acclaimed newsletter editor, James Dines, shares his LATEST ON GOLD. Additionally, he calls attention to two of his favorite precious metals stocks: Agnico-Eagle and Stillwater Mining - both are hot-wired to their charts, just CLICK the name. It is also obvious analyst Dines cottons to silver:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines120997.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971212/u_s_banker_sees_figh_1.html

Allen ( USA ) ,All: While I am talking about wavelets, ANOTHER has dropped by again, and created a flurry of posts!

I have one question: Are all the oil producers of the world really able to get together in one room, and demand gold for oil?

I realize that a crisis occured in the 70's when the OPEC producers found themselves being reimbursed in depreciating dollars, because the price of oil was offically priced in dollars.

I have a different approach. Lets say that the oil producers are worried that the same thing might happen again ( repeat of the 70's ) , and they do not want to see their valuable resource ( oil ) being priced at a ( relatively fixed ) price in depreciating dollars. All they have to do is demand that the price of oil is fully floating, just as the price of gold is now fully floating in dollars. I wonder, could the price of oil be manipulated like the price of gold is right now? Probably not, because I don't think anyone has 10 years production of crude above ground to loan or sell. This floating approach to oil would work unless the dollar crashed and burned, when the oil producers would demand something else anyway - another currency, or gold.

I think some of the commotion about the oil-gold-dollar bit is that the price of oil was solidly begged for a long time, and the 70's OPEC oil crisis put an end to that. Does anyone know if oil is fully floating in dollars now or not?

Now this approach does not solve the problem of how the industrial world will handle rising oil prices, as that is tantamount to inflation, given our oil-based economies. But that is our problem to solve, not the Oil producers. As investors, we need to have some idea regarding how that problem might be addressed if oil prices rise.

All: Did you notice that Korean oil imports are expected to drop in January? We may have dropping oil prices for some time!

Heir to Fiat dynasty dies of cancer...

It was a headline on yahoo news. This currency stuff will make you daffy.

Giants stomping on Washington. I love it!

You probably don't know how long it takes to string a classical guitar...thirty friggin' minutes, man. Can you believe it?

oris: Here is something to chew on: Yes the military power of the US is very strong right now, and it is part of the reason the dollar is strong. Just like the UK before us. But look what happened to the UK. They are no longer the world's premier military power, we are. Don't you find it interesting that the gold began to flow to the US in a big way during the 20's, about the time it was clear the UK was losing control of their colonies? Didn't Hitler assume that the UK was internally weak, despite the fact that it was still a world power? Didn't the US financially support the UK during WWII? Isn't the US being supported right now? Remember the Kuwait war, and the promise we got from our allies? Have you noticed that US private and military R&D has dropped dramatically? This is expensive -- can we afford it?

My point is that the US will no longer remain a world power if we destroy our currency, or bury ourselves in debt. We would do much better if the dollar was not the defacto world's currency, but that is not in the cards. Some other country will pick up the world power role if we falter - after a world crisis of some kind - and that country will have learned how not to debase their currency the way we have. China, perhaps? Just how much gold do they have?

No, no, no, no ... these are not dainty PCS/Cellular towers ... these are MASSIVE, open frame towers, so damn rugged that they wouldn't need cable bracing even in tornado infested Texas weather. Which makes the sole angular "support" struts ( for lack of a better word ) even more curious. These four frame towers look like they could hold back the Pacific ocean.

The facility itself, as I said, is out in the boondocks, and a small sign says it is the property of EPRI ( see http://www.epri.com ) . Everything about the site smells of some spook operation. And yes, I did screw up the courage to find the phone number and call ONCE. Got a secretary who didn't have a clue what I was talking about: CLICK.

No, the Western Currency Facility is for print'n up them new fangled notes in our pockets - I'm sure used old dollars are shredded and spinkled around the floor of the White House and Congress. You need something available in large quantities and very absorbent to catch what they excrete from their mouths.

Wonder who's pulling Hormats' strings. Didn't he replace Rubin, the stockbroker who is now running this Goldilocks U.S. economy?

Where in Texas was the super collider to be built? I can't remember...could the towers be part of that moth-balled project?

Studio R.: You're right! I don't know how to string a guitar, and all the physics in the world can't make a Stradivarius, or make it sing! Also - I can't carry a tune no matter how hard I try -- that piano music still sounds hollow after 20 years of playing. I think it's great that we have such diversity of backgounds on Kitco! Thanks again Bart for making it possible!

Here's something else for you -- those who can carry a tune are probably more natturaly inclined to being able to predict the future or understand cycles! Ever notice how the next note on Beethoven's moonlight sonata is so predictable -- at least when you are playing it or listening to it?

My Redskins will get a playoff spot and avenge this loss. WE HAVE WON MORE SUPER BOWLS than the losers in New Jersey. Watch out for our Wizards. Dark horse of the NBA will be champ status this year or next.Oriole orange in baseball and Georgetown Blue in College Hoops although the MD and GW Teams are looking a little better this year.

Selby ( Dec.13 10:12 )

Here is a further quote from the Privateer article ( published in Early November ) . The IMF bail outs of Latin American nations in the 1970s and 1980s, right up to the Mexican bailout of late 1994, obviously benefitted the U.S., because it was U.S. banks that were most exposed to the region. This time, it is the U.S. Treasury itself that is most exposed. Asian nations were the MAJOR buyers of new Treasury debt throughout the 1990s.

Here's the quote:

The history of IMF bail-outs stretches all the way back to the era of real asset inflation of the 1970s. It entered a new era of urgency in 1985 when the U.S. became a net debtor nation for the first time since WW I, and it has usually been carried out to support "third world" nations. The fact that it is now happening in Asia - home of the "Tiger Economies" of the last decade - is highly significant. This rescue package for Indonesia will freeze its holdings of U.S. Treasury debt paper in place.

In the case of Asia in particular, this is important. The rescues of the Latin American nations in the 1970s and 1980s were done for the purpose of protecting the U.S. banking system, which had huge loan exposure to these nations. The rescue of Asian economies directly protects the U.S. Treasury itself, because the Asian economies have been the main buyers of debt paper during the 1990s.

Music is by far my first love...but, the predictability feature of my musical work is somewhat disjointed, some say alarming. If you don't mind, I'll just "keep time" and "intonate" to your toe-tapping.

No, Studio, the Super-Duper Collider was aaalllllll they way across the Dallas/Fort Worth metro-mess to the south - near Waxahachie ( or at least it sounds like that ) . Actually my current project lead used to work at the SSC before it was "wasted". Says the tunnels underground were awesome. Now, the US is sending money to the frogs for the collider at CERN. Make you wonder. Most likely, those mysterious towers are part of the Earth Defense Grid to keep us safe from Vorlons ( grin ) .

Richard Maybury ( he of the EWR Newsletter, along with James Davidson and others whosw name I can't recall, are positive that the Muslims are gonna be the prime enemy with which the "arrogant West" will have to cope in the next few years. Terrorism is their bag.
I echo their sentiments"you aint' sen nothing yet".
As does Tolerant 1, I shudder as I think of the horrendous deeds about to be perpetrated by gubmnts and individuals on this sphere.
I find it difficult to keep my mind openm re: the multi-faceted approach of evil as it pertains to the affairs of men today. It is easier to put one's head to the ground and play ostrich!! ( :+^}

Where is the levity in gravity? Sure is a heavy subject isn't it? Old Newton got bonked by an Apple before he knew what to do. And then we have Eotvos ( I still can't do the fancy character stuff, so the ' is missing! ) . And Einstein, who decided that we had to twist space into pretzels. I've never seem him expouse on the gravity - "lite" type of brew.

I think you have the answer -- it will have to come from those little gold ( green? ) men! If you see one, please try and get him to tell us all about the sceret to the levity of gravity. It would be nice to meet a funny alien one day, wouldn't it. Just as long as he doesn't look and sound like Jim Carey in "The Mask".

Perhaps the price of oil on the way down will meet the price of silver on the way up. Barrel of oil for an ounce of silver used to hold. Just a thought.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

Hourly Gold Chart shows possible local bottom.

http://www.researchmag.com/platinum/platinum.htm Platinum Information Page

http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/webglis USGS Global Land Information System

http://minerals.er.usgs.gov/ USGS Mineral Resources Program

http://www.bullion.org.za/mining5.htm World Mining Directory

Coming off the brilliant SILVER CALL recently, Mike Sheller shares another insightful and quite possibly prophetic outlook for the stock market and precious metals. This will be, if nothing else, a "stress test" of sorts for the stock market. As he sees it, between his calculations and our Jupiterian observations, stocks don't have a chance. Full view from observatory at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro121397.html

The value of a basket of currencies of the gold buying countries has dropped 17% since the beginning of the year. The price of gold in US$ has dropped roughly 20%. Thanks to Lurker777 who supplied the URL, I was able to find and download historical currency info and generate the following chart. It seems that traditional supply/demand factors have worked to keep the price of gold stable +/- a few %, relative to the currencies of the average buyer.

I've posted on this subject before, but didn't have all the data. I find this chart very revealing. I seems more clear than ever that the gold price in US$ will not begin an extended rally until the financial situations of the major gold markets stabilize, and the curreny trend reverses.

Carl: I like your comment in your last post. When oil/gold/silver all go the same direction, I think we will have what ANOTHER is warning us about. I don't know if his/her predictions of near total disaster will play out, because I am not aware of a convincing historical precedent for this. But -- the more gold goes down the more worried I get about what's coming for the dollar.

There is one "silver lining" - in all this inflation/deflation going on right now -- if the US prints electronic dollars instead of paper dollars and exports them to SE Asia. Perhaps they will vanish in a puff of deflationary smoke over there, instead of eventually returning to haunt us as inflation. I don't have a clue whether our AG can make dollars disappear as mysteriously as he creates them. I wonder -- can he make the Statue of Liberty or the Eiffel tower disappear, too? I suspect the skills of a successful Chairman of a leading Central bank must be diverse. Did everyone know that the Chairman/director of the new European Central bank is expected to have skills similar to that of our AG?

If I was an oil producer I would be forward selling large amounts of oil. Due to the finicial troubles coming to light, industry slow down would be a logical conclusion. Does this have anything to do with production increases of oil producing nations?

It seems that quite a large market share of oil users will have less need or not have the ability to aquire, how long will this be,is it short term , who knows. There are too many variables that factor into the equation if panic is not held in check.

JTF
your "Old Newton got bonked by an Apple" has a surrealistic meaning to this antipodean, and I don't know how to explain it on a family show.. Where's Gilligan?

DJ: Great post! The real price of gold for the average world buyer is unchanged. Gold is cheaper only in terms of dollars. I wonder, when you came up with the average price of gold -- did you eliminate all currencies tied to the dollar? If you did not, I think you would find that the real price of gold is actually rising in those currencies.

As I recall, the World Gold Council has similar graphs.

I recall that Peter Monk said earlier this year that gold could go to $250.

bb fisher: I think Donald said you are lurking -- how about some words of wisdom? Is the effective Euro deadline coming up in the next few months going to be the turning point for gold? Do you agree with RJ that gold is still in free fall? Just how much farther can it go without some gold producers defaulting on their gold loans, and converting some of those secret ( planned ) CB gold loans into public ( unplanned ) CB gold sales? Those gold losses would have to go on the old public CB balance sheet, I think.

JTF - All the currencies of the gold buyers I which I included vary to a greater or lessor extent vs. the US$. Apparently none of these are rigidly tied to the US$. Yes the WGC maintains a chart such as this. I posted it a few days back. However, it ended at the end of Q3. I don't know of any source ( URL ) that shows a continuously updated chart. If you know of one, please let me know. It will save me a lot of work.

http://www.dirus.com/us21/documents/Hormats.html

Subject: Ballard Power -world leader zero-emission PEM fuel

cells

| Previous | Next | Respond | +Earnings |

To: +Elwood ( 1025 )

From: +Urlman

Friday, Oct 10 1997 7:11PM EST

Reply # of 1389

The July Wired article entitled "The Long Boom: A History of the Future, 1980 -

2020" is what

sparked the market interest in Ballard. Wall Steet embraced this wired peice ....

The October issue is what set this puppy ABLAZE

By the late 1990s, research labs such as British Columbia-based Ballard Power

Systems are steadily developing the technology with little public fanfare. Within 10

years, there are transitional hydrogen car models that extract fuel from ordinary

gasoline, using the existing network of pumps. By 2010, hydrogen is being processed

in refinery-like plants and loaded onto cars that can go thousands of miles - and many

months - before refueling. The technology is vastly cheaper and safer than in the 1960s

and well on its way to widespread use.

These technological developments drive nothing less than a wholesale transformation of

the automobile industry through the first quarter of the new century. Initially prodded

by government decrees such as California's zero-emission mandate - which called for

10 percent of new cars sold to have zero emissions by 2003 - the industrial behemoths

begin to pick up speed when an actual market for hybrid cars opens up. People buy

them not because they are the environmentally correct option but because they're

sporty, fast, and fun. And the atrto companies build them because executives see green

- as in money, not trees.

This 10- to 15-year industrial retooling sends reverberations throughout the global

economy. The petrochemical giants begin switching from maintaining vast networks

that bring oil from remote Middle Eastern deserts to iimilarly vast networks that supply

the new elements of electrical power. Fossil fuels will continue to be a primary source

of power into the middle of the 21st century - but they will be clean fossil fuels. By

2020, almost all new cars are hybrid vehicles, mostly using hydrogen power. That

development alone defuses much of the pressure on the global environment. The world

may be able to support quite a few additional automobile drivers - including nearly 2

billion Chinese.

SOURCE: http://wwww.wired.com/wired/5.07/longboom.html

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971213/news/stories/iraq_9.html

Another way of viewing your chart is to note that holders of U.S. dollars are being blessed with a greater opportunity to exchange paper for gold than the rest of the world.

I am looking at the chart in the same way that Donald_A is. So far, so good if your buying with $U.S..

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971213/news/stories/china_1.html

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971213/politics/stories/korea_5.html

Thanks for the documentation on Hormats. I suspected that was the mold from which he emerged.

"The State Department admits mistakes" when they approved the burial of M. Larry Lawrence in Arlington National Cemetery. Note that the body was dug up and sent back to San Diego last week.

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a49828

Virtually every scandal has been attributed to "honest mistakes." When will the sleeping voters/taxpayers of this country wake up to what has to be either complete incompetence or coverups on the part of this administration?

JTF-Do not be afraid to challenge authority at any time,if a search for truth is in question.Truth is not found behind a man's reputation.Truth appears only through the search for answers to questions by the free mind.Vincenzo Galilei ( Father of Galileo ) P.S.Some great books:"Cycles-Real and Synthetic," Foundation for the study of cycles,New York, January 13 1960.Business Cycles and their-causes,University of California press,Berkeley,C.A,1950 and last "Financial Astrology"-LCdr.Williams ( Ret. ) American Federation of Astrologers 1984."Prediction must inevitably fail unless we have lighted on the true cause of the phenomena ; Success is therefore a guarantee of the truth of the theory.Professor G.H.Darwin.Away to sell Dmark nuggets.

http://www.businessweek.com:80/1997/51/b3558072.htm

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a49828.htm

Was the pun intended?

First, I must apologize for tossing this little hand grenade into the discussion and then leaving. But I had a speech to give and then a plane to catch. It was not until now that I was able to read to response.

Some of the response were idiotic, a few just plain dismissive. But I was happy to see a few well reasoned responses. Kitco is getting better.

This most comprehensive retort came from JTF at: Fri Dec 12 1997 12:49
JTF ( No gold for central banks? ) ID#57232:


JTF said:
You should make a comparison between how each country is doing, economic strength, standard of living, etc, and their gold supplies.

Karlito's Response:

JTF you have the cause and effeect backward. Countries achieved wealth for a variety of reasons and then acquired gold, not the other way around.


Then JTF said:
You need to ask youself why Silver is in a rally when gold is not -- since in many ways they are both currencies ( as well as commodities
) and historically linked. You need to ask yourself why the more plentiful precious metal ( silver ) is now suddenly so valuable and the the rarer more precious metal -- gold -- is not.


Karlito's response:
Silver is in a rally because the industrial uses for silver are growing much faster than production. Since there is no central bank hoarding of silver there is no supply overhang to keep the price of silver down. But because there is no central bank hoarding of silver it trades at more of a true market value, a market value that gold will approach ( at a ratio of 16 to 1 to silver ) when the central banks stop hoarding gold.


Then JTF said:

You need to ask yourself why people like Alan Greenspan believe that our dollar should be linked to gold again. It takes some digging to figure this out about AG -- he would do it if he could.


Karlito's response:
Alan Greenspan believed in the gold standard when he was a young man and an ardent follower of Ayn Rand. He has since grown up and matured and with maturity has come a more realistic view of the world as it is. You would be hard pressed to find a statement by Greenspan made in the last 15 years that was supportive of the gold standard. Greenspan's intellectual development follows the old adage that if you are not an idealist as a young man then you have no heart, if you are still an idealist when you are an old man then you have no head.


Then JTF said
You need to ask yourself why the Rothschilds, the Indians and the Chinese buy gold if it is indeed worthless. Think of how many dollars the Rothschilds could buy if they wanted to sell all their gold -- they could solve the pending dollar flood crisis for us!

I don't know anything about the Rothschilds. I do believe that if they did everything the conspiracy theorists attribute to them, they would not have the time to do anything else. As for the Chinese and Indians, they have always been lovers of gold, nothing has changed there to change the global demand for gold.


Then JTF said:

Why are the countries most at risk for economic crises the ones with little gold? Why do the countries with the highest standard of living the ones with the most gold? Would you rather live in Switzerland or Russia?

Karlito's response:

Again, you are confuse cause and effect. Wealth came first, gold later. I would rather live in the USA, then the UK and and then prehaps Down Under. I find Switzerland a rather boring country. Russia might be an intereting place to live for a year or two. My sister-in-law and her husband lived there for 2 years and loved it. The cost of living is very cheap and being in Moscow, you do have a front seat to an interesting social transformation.



Then JTF said:
You must not have heard the latest on the Euro bank is that it will have gold reserves, although details about who will keep the gold is not yet clear. For obvious reasons, Germany and France will refuse to let their CB gold out of the country.

Karlito's Response:
The full extent of the Euro bank's gold hoard has yet to be determined. Any gold they have will be small and for appearances only. My own view of the Euro and the EMU is that it will be a disaster for Europe. We need more currencies, not fewer of them. Germany and France will eventually sell their gold too when they realize the senselessness of holding it.

Then JTF said:
In an ideal world where all national leaders could be trusted not to debase their currency you would be correct that an anchor in gold is not needed.

Karlito's response:
I generally trust a politician about as far as I can throw one. You can always tell they are lying when you see their lips move. I will put my trust in markets to detect the debasing of a currency as has been the case in the Far East and to deal with the problem accordingly.


JTF's final statement was:
I rest my case. I am reassured that you post on this site. That can only mean one thing -- that at least you are not sure about what you are saying.

Karlito's response:
I am often wrong, but seldom in doubt. You rest your case but you have not convinced me that the cb's havent come to the conclusion that gold is no longer needed in a global, informationally driven economy where markets, not politicians determine the value of any currency.

Thanks for the reasoned response JTF.... cheers.

Here is a site that gives a historical data graph on any currency versus gold, SDR/gold, currency/currency, silver/currency, platinum/currency and more. Enjoy

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

Dear JTF, my problem is that I am not an expert in economics or
politics. When I try to understand something, I apply my plain simple
logic and general knowledge of history. I also apply the principle
of "Who is benefiting from a certain event?" in order to try to
figure out what is going on. I also assume that 12 gauge slug shotgun is more powerful than 22 rimfire rifle, and I hope that everybody knows the difference between these two calibers. And the last thing - I assume that people who run things in the world are not necessarily stupid, and some of them may be even smarter than some of us posting on this site., just because they are PROFESSIONALs.

No doubt that some politicians are just dummies, and they are in
politics for the simple reason of not being capable of running business of any kind, but they still need to feed their families and THEMSELFs,
of course, so all they can use is their ability to say what they are ordered to say...

The whole picture of the world is extremely complex, and it would be impossible to use only 1 event to explain everything. For this reason
ANOTHER's idea is just one of the ideas to consider, but it is hardly
the ONLY reason for the movement of oil/gold prices and etc. For
example, it does not explain the U.S.Treasuries being the SAFE HEAVEN..

There are only 2 powers in the world now which can dictate their
will to the others - the U.S.A. and Russia. Both can stop their
R&D for 25 years and still be the POWER. Why? It is plain simple -
both countries got nearly all NUCLEAR WEAPONS of the world. However,
the U.S. also got a lot of real ABOVE-GROUND wealth, extremely
attractive currency, completely operational industrial complex and traditionally strong political influence. In comparison with Russia, the U.S. is also politically extremely stable in terms of society and
government.

Just imagine - you are very wealthy oilowner, you got lots of money
and etc., you got golden toilets in every bathroom in your house
and 50 Lincolns in your garage. You enjoy your life. But you
know LIMITATIONS - "Man got to know his limitations", said Dirty
Harry, because there is somebody who BUILT aircraft carier, and not
just one, and who can very simply order the take-off of a couple of
airplanes to drop a couple of nuclear laser-guided bombs on your
golden toilets and you still sitting on one of them.... IF YOU DO OR
PLAN TO DO ANYTHING STUPID.. This "WHO" really undestands the BENEFIT
of aircraft cariers and bombs, and doesn't want any other party, including best friend called U.K., to have it in quantities that could match WHO's quantities.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS stuff is a key to understanding why U.K. lost its
lustre in this century and probably will never have it again. As to China, China could probably win nearly every conventional local/limited war but unless they stockpile enough of what makes everybody real
shaky - NUCLEAR WEAPONS, they just CANNOT be the LEADER of the world.

When it comes to SURVIVAL, I bet you would prefer to have a good 44 mag. revolver in your pocket instead of golden watch on your wrist, it gives you much better chances to walk away from danger.

And again - "who is benefiting from this event?" Gold was supposed
to rise because of worldwide stock/currencies crisis. It did not.
What/Who is rising/benefiting? US DOLLAR, US STOCK MARKET,
US TREASURIES, US INFLUENCE in general..

Is it good for us living in the U.S.? IT IS VERY GOOD, but do we want such a strong US$ for a long time? Probably not, because we are going to suffer economically in the long term.. USA seems to win this game for now, we will not probably go down too much with Asia and others,
but now its time to adjust US$ a little bit and we are all set...

This is a reason I believe price of GOLD in US$ ( !!! ) will rise, because
soon it's gonna be time for this adjustment.. A.G. knows how
to accomplish this adjustment with use of gold...

This is my view on what is going on and I accept everybody's opinion
that I can be wrong for numerous reasons.

No pun intended. I'm only infrequently that clever.

Are you deaf and blind and rely on some other person to communicate the world around you, to you, in their clouded manner.

If you are not blind I suggest you read the last 20 or so speeches by Mr. Greenspan.

If you cannot read I will read them to you. That four letter word he uses so often is gold you dimwit.

Vatican says it didn't get any Nazi gold

Vatican City The Vatican has denied that it received gold looted from
Gypsy concentration camp victims and stands by its refusal to open
archives covering the Nazi period.

Asserting it could "look to the past with serenity," a Vatican spokesman
said Tuesday the church's own search of the documents had found
nothing to back accusations that Pope Pius XII had failed to use the
church's moral and diplomatic clout against the Nazis.

At a London conference on Nazi gold last week, a delegation of
Gypsies, also known as Roma, said gold coins and rings worth nearly $2
million had been seized from Roma people killed in Croatian death
camps and sent to the Vatican.

Donald, Studio.R - Of course you are right. Gold is cheap in US$. However, the question we all wrestle with is, "Will it be cheaper still?"

Based on the fact that the "world gold currency" is still in a crash mode relative to the US$, I have to believe it will be even cheaper in the future.

Great site. Thanks

http://www.polyconomics.com/searchbase/10-28-97.html

tolerant1...I'm with you. Thank God there are sellers like this. t#1, I think I've followed most of your posts today...I have to tell you, I dig your attitude today...whatever you had for breakfast works.

Will gold be cheaper still? I don't know but I suspect not much cheaper. In any event history is full of stories about people who were left holding too much paper. I don't ever recall reading about someone who had too much gold.

1996 and Mr. Greenspan is still using that four letter word.

http://www.bog.frb.us/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/19961205.htm

Even with a central bank, the gold standard was still the dominant constraint on the issuance of paper currency and the expansion of bank deposits. Accordingly, the Federal Reserve was to play a minor role in affecting the purchasing power of the currency for many years to come.

The world changed markedly with the advent of the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the evisceration of the gold standard. The upheaval, and still festering fear of New York "monied interests," engendered the Banking Acts of 1933 and more importantly of 1935, which vested more of the Federal Reserve's authority with the Board of Governors in Washington. During World War II, and through 1951, however, monetary policy was effectively subservient to the interests of the Treasury, which sought access to low-cost credit. With the so-called Federal Reserve-Treasury Accord of 1951, the Federal Reserve began to develop its current degree of independence.

The weekend has arrived and boy, here we are. Same old thing on wallpaper week last night, I think, that Rukheyser really turns me off. But it seems to me that the Street has finally realized they are tetering on the brink of the century's biggest fire sale. When will the brinkmanship of the likes of Rukheyser end? Well, I think that many are finally realizing that this bull market is over. For all the pilots out there, the stall warning horn is singing.

When will the flight to metals occur? Or has it begun already? From my vantage point up here on top of the world, it seems that it has. Over the next month I see the market coming to grips with two things. First, it will have to accept that $280 is about as low as you can push todays market before producers punt. Granted, big money, large reserve outfits can sell forward and lock a respectable profit in, but where are those ounces? They are in the ground. Which brings us to the second thing the market must come to terms with, and the thing which we ( up here in our corner of the universe ) feel is critical to waking the market up-physical demand. We are hoping to see the kind of physical demand one would hope for with bargain gold prices.

Karlito your 17:18



Karlito's response: Alan Greenspan believed in the gold standard when he was a young man and an ardent follower of Ayn Rand. He has since grown up and matured and with maturity has come a more realistic view of the world as it is. You would be hard pressed to find a statement by Greenspan made in the last 15 years that was supportive of the gold standard. Greenspan's intellectual development follows the old adage that if you are not an idealist as a young man then you have no heart, if you are still an idealist when you are an old man then you have no head.

to which i say, not so hard pressed, old bean:-


http://www.canadianfinance.com/28035nbo.htm


Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve Chairman, during testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on February 22, 1995.
While discussing whether the United States should return to the gold standard, said, "I personally would prefer it." Greenspan went on to say that on the Federal Open Market
Committee support for a return to the gold standard is weak.

Not a party animal to be found

http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyMarkets/hanley.html

Donald your 17:52 two characters from fiction spring to mind as having too much gold, Silas Marner and $crooge McDuck

away to polish a lucky dime

http://www.intellectualcapital.com/issues/97/0515/icpro.html

Louis Rekheyser.. Me and couple buddies would enjoy Louie's company on a cozy little float trip down the White River...he should bring a couple of gals, so all us guys will have dates. It'll be fun...it'll deliver him from all his concerns.

Scrooge McDuck was born in 1867 and lived a life of poverty until he struck it rich through hard
labor in the Yukon. His exciting adventures have thrilled thousands of people and his ruthless
business spirit have inspired yet thousands more! Throughout his life, Scrooge met a lot of different
interesting people and learned his share of lessons. However, unlike a lot of people, he actually put
his life's lessons to good work and never passed up an opportunity to earn an extra Schilling

Coming off the brilliant SILVER CALL recently, Mike Sheller shares another insightful and quite possibly prophetic outlook for the stock market and precious metals. This will be, if nothing else, a "stress test" of sorts for the stock market. As he sees it, between his calculations and our Jupiterian observations, stocks don't have a chance. Full view from observatory at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro121397.html

The weekend has arrived and boy, here we are. Same old thing on wallpaper week last night, I think, that Rukheyser really turns me off. But it seems to me that the Street has finally realized they are tetering on the brink of the century's biggest fire sale. When will the brinkmanship of the likes of Rukheyser end? Well, I think that many are finally realizing that this bull market is over. For all the pilots out there, the stall warning horn is singing.

When will the flight to metals occur? Or has it begun already? From my vantage point up here on top of the world, it seems that it has. Over the next month I see the market coming to grips with two things. First, it will have to accept that $280 is about as low as you can push todays market before producers punt. Granted, big money, large reserve outfits can sell forward and lock a respectable profit in, but where are those ounces? They are in the ground. Which brings us to the second thing the market must come to terms with, and the thing which we ( up here in our corner of the universe ) feel is critical to waking the market up-physical demand. We are hoping to see the kind of physical demand one would hope for with bargain gold prices. IF YOU BUY GOLD, MAKE SURE YOU "FINGER YOUR WEALTH"!!!

http://www.update.uu.se/~starback/disney-comics/yukonduck.html

December 12, 1997.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities, including precious metals, closed mixed on Friday. Gold dropped $1.20, silver rallied 6.8 cents, platinum hit a new post-February low of $354 in the active January contract but recovered nearly all of its gains to end down twenty cents, and palladium sank $6.00. Bearish opinion about gold remains at a near consensus. The U.S. long bond hit its highest intraday spot price since December 29, 1995, with an effective annual yield of 5.934%.

American Eagle gold coin sales totalled 84,000 ounces in November 1997, up 282% from 22,000 ounces in November 1996.

The London Bullion Market Association said Friday that average daily cleared turnover for gold in November was 40.8 million ounces, compared with a record high of 42 million ounces in October, and up 32% from 1996.

Swiss National Bank directorate member Jean-Pierre Roth stated on Friday that the bank intends to continue to hold onto a significant portion of its gold reserves and that it has no intention of reducing its gold stocks rapidly. He added that "in the eyes of many, gold is a synonym for stability and security."

Due to the low gold price, Getchell Gold of Canada is cutting its workforce by 20% and suspending the use of low grade stockpile ore.

South African gold producers no longer have to market their gold through that nation's central bank, representing a further relaxation in exchange controls, according a report on Friday by the Finance Ministry. South Africa "will also not be altering its exposure to gold as a consequence of the revised arrangements."

Barrick Gold of Canada, often a trend-setter in the gold mining industry, announced today that they will buy back ten percent of their outstanding common stock in the open market. CEO Peter Munk stated, "The shares are trading in a price range that does not reflect the value of the company's mining and financial assets and future business prospects. We have the financial strength to undertake this program."

According to New York-based CPM Group, private investment demand for gold bars and bullion coins has increased sharply over the past two months as gold prices tumbled. Net private investment demand is projected to total 9.3 million ounces in 1997, up 129.2% from 4.1 million ounces in 1996, with 1998 demand predicted to rise by an additional 33%. CPM found that the closest historical parallel was with the end of 1992, just before a major gold rally in 1993. CPM noted that large institutions in the industrialized economies appeared to be the only group not buying at this time, instead waiting for prices to start rising forcefully before they make the bulk of their purchases.

Gold mining analyst John Tumazos raised his estimated gold price for the years 2001 and 2002 from $400 to $425 per troy ounce. According to Mr. Tumazos, the current deep decline provides the foundation for a stronger recovery in the early years of the next decade. "Short covering, the forced liquidation of bullion loans or voluntary liquidation of bullion loans could cause violent reversals in the gold commodities markets, which may cause a $50 per ounce reversal in a brief interval such as one month." Mr. Tumazos also stated that "Federal Reserve chairman [Alan] Greenspan's December 2 remarks provide a basis of optimism for gold or other commodity investors. For the first time he acknowledged 'deflation' as an economic problem. A reversal in Fed Chairman [Paul] Volcker's priorities to fighting unemployment rather than inflation in June 1982 was the turning point in the 1982 gold market bottom."

http://www.kimsoft.com/1997/sk-econ.htm

http://www.thenation.com/issue/971215/1215grei.htm

White water rapids and strains of "Duelin' Banjos" in the background.

Internationally acclaimed analyst Gene Inger, is beginning to become interested in GOLDs prospects. ...no doubt the yellow metal is somewhere near at least an interim low point. We view it as a value buy, but not very good as a hedge. As far as gold goes, we prefer stocks to bullion. His complete intra-week report at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger121197.html

EU moves ahead with eastward expansion

European Union leaders 
December 13, 1997
Web posted at: 12:20 p.m. EST ( 1720 GMT )
LUXEMBOURG ( CNN ) -- Leaders from the 15 European Union nations decided Saturday to open talks in March aimed at adding 11 countries as members, most of them former Communist states. But Turkey remains on the sidelines.

As a two-day summit ended, the EU decided to start full membership talks at that time with Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Estonia and Cyprus. Initial talks are to be held then with Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria.

The EU decision marks the biggest expansion in the organization's history.

"With the launch of the enlargement process, we see the dawn of a new era finally putting an end to the divisions of the past," an official statement said, adding that extending the EU model across the continent would bring "future stability and prosperity."

To join the EU, a nation must have:

Stable institutions that guarantee democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for minorities
A viable market economy that can cope with the competitive pressures that come with EU membership, including the rigors of joining the planned single currency in 1999.

The EU leaders were to announce a new strategy for snubbed Turkey: Keep it happy but at bay.

Ankara's prospects for membership are dim because of a dubious human rights record, its 30,000 troops on Cyprus and territorial disputes with EU neighbor Greece.

"Turkey must still make a lot of important moves" before it can be seen as a valid EU candidate," Greek Deputy Foreign Minister George Papandreou said.

Five nations are on fast track

Background:
Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands signed the Treaties of Rome in 1957 to establish the European Economic Community, the forerunner to the 15-nation European Union. In 1991, EU members approved the Maastricht Treaty, which set a target date of 1999 for unifying the countries' economies and creating a single currency. In July 1997, the EU Commission recommended expanding the body by inviting some eastern European countries to join.

At the earliest, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Estonia and Slovenia wouldn't become full EU members before 2002.

All these fast-track states, which applied for membership between 1994 and 1996, meet the political criteria, although the European Commission, a group within the EU, has urged Estonia to speed up its naturalization process of Russian speakers who are not currently Estonian citizens.

The commission also concluded that these countries had viable market economies.

Only Estonia, commission members said, must make more progress in readying its economy for the competitive pressures of a free market economy, which would eventually affect 500 million consumers.

The divided Mediterranean island of Cyprus applied to join the EU in 1990, but its membership has repeatedly been opposed by Turkey, whose troops invaded northeastern Cyprus in 1974 and proclaimed a separate state, which is not recognized by the United Nations.

Turkey and the EU established a customs union in 1995, but EU aid for that nation worth millions of dollars has been blocked by Greece.

Aid for European Conference

Kohl 

The two-tier strategy of "six plus five" for accession talks was essentially aimed at encouraging weaker candidates by not totally excluding them from the decision-making nations of the EU.

All 11 nations will be part of the newly formed European Conference, and will be eligible for $83 billion in EU aid over the next decade.

The agenda of the European Conference, which is scheduled to open in March in London and also includes the 15 current EU members, is to cover European concerns, excluding membership issues.

Turkey -- which has repeatedly applied for EU membership over the past decades -- also has been invited to the forum, but had made no formal response. Ankara previously said it would refuse to go, if it got the impression that it was simply being appeased by the EU.

Most EU members want to ensure that predominantly Muslim Turkey, which has been a key NATO member, continues its communications with the EU. But they insist that Ankara improve its human rights record, including the treatment of its Kurdish population, and settle border and territorial disputes with Greece before Ankara can become an EU member.

Single currency dispute settled

France and Britain also settled a dispute Saturday over the status of EU countries who will not join the EU's single currency, the Euro, at its planned launch in 1999.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair had vowed to block the creation of a special club, dubbed Euro-X, which would be limited to single-currency members. London does not plan to immediately join the Euro at its launch date.

But British officials said they were satisfied with a compromise under which all non-Euro members would have the right to attend and participate in most Euro-X meetings and decisions.

London believes the Ecofin group -- the finance and economics ministers from all EU states -- should retain its monopoly on economic issues.

"The Ecofin council remains the mother of all decisions," said German Chancellor Helmut Kohl.

December 13, 1997
Web posted at: 4:08 p.m. EST ( 2108 GMT )
SEOUL, South Korea ( CNN ) -- Hoping a show of political stability will help South Korea's unstable economy, President Kim Young-sam and three candidates vying to replace him issued a statement Saturday vowing to abide by the terms of a record bailout by the International Monetary Fund.

"We will do our best to boost international confidence by honoring the terms of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund," the statement said.

FIRST SILVER RESERVE INC. ANNOUNCES SILVER SHIPMENTS INCREASE 20% TO RECORD LEVELS



VANCOUVER, Dec. 12 /CNW/ - First Silver Reserve Inc. ( FSR,V )
Silver dore shipments from the wholly owned San Martin silver mine in
Mexico averaged 51,770 oz. per week for the 4 week period ended December 9, an
increase of 8,500 oz. per week ( 19.6% ) over average weekly shipments of 43,270
oz. for the first nine months of 1997. The most recent shipment of 2 tons of
silver for the week was the largest in the mine's 14 year history.
Annualized silver shipments based on these results are 2.7 million oz.
per year compared to 1996 shipments of 2.3 million oz., an increase on an
annual basis of 16%.
99.93% of total production is silver ( the balance is gold ) making FSR the
only publicly listed pure silver producer and the most highly leveraged to
increases in the price of silver.
With the installation of additional milling equipment in the third
quarter, milling capacity increased in late October from an average of 535
tonnes per day to a current level of 677 tonnes per day, an increase of 27%.
Further expansion of plant capacity is scheduled for 1998.
Reserve development has continued over the 15 months from September 1996
when Pincock Allen and Holt confirmed proven, probable and possible reserves
for the acquisition of San Martin by FSR. Reserves at December 31, 1997 will
again be audited by Pincock Allen and Holt and will be reported when
available.
FSR has completed payments to a private Mexican company to acquire a 60%
interest in the 110 sq. mile Palmarejo silver prospect west of the San Martin
mine. Negotiations are now underway with respect to ongoing financing for the
further exploration and development of the property.

On behalf of the Board of
First Silver Reserve Inc.

Timothy J. Ryan

http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/971212/business/business5.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971212/markets_emerging_cur_1.html

this is over samples of two feet--general orebody hoped to go about 2% for 100,000 ton to date. Underground diamond drilling continues.Immediate removal of about 100 ton/day is possible from exploration shaft and treated for a cost of about $us250/ton of material.

I have collected some company reports and posted them at

http://wire.net.au/~jsmith/ look for East Coast

questions invited to

jsmith@wire.net.au

http://www.silver-standard.com/nr97-14.htm

A little producer I think you all might to look at. They mine that horrible gold stuff.

OROPERU RESOURCES INC. ANNOUNCES GRANTING AND RE-PRICING OF STOCK OPTIONS



VANCOUVER, Nov. 24 /CNW/ - Oroperu Resources Inc.
Canadian Dealing Network Symbol: OROP

Oroperu Resources Inc. ( the ``Company'' ) announces that it is on this day granting incentive stock options to an officer of the Company, for the right to purchase up to 100,000 common shares from the treasury of the Company at an exercise price of $0.70 per common share for a period of three years from the date hereof. Additionally, the Company announces that it is re-pricing the exercise price on 112,500 already issued incentive stock options to five employees, from exercise prices ranging between $1.50 to $2.07 per common share to an exercise price of $0.70 per common share.
The granting and re-pricing of the above stock options is subject to
regulatory and shareholder approval as may be required.

SIGNED ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF
OROPERU RESOURCES INC.

``K. Wayne Livingstone''

K. Wayne Livingstone
President

Does anybody know of a way to find out who is purchasing all this silver. Wondering what industry is increasing demand.

http://www.cpmgroup.com/survey96launch.html

Our beautiful streams are regaining the level of purity they enjoyed
prior to B.C. Please don't even joke about re-polluting them.
Most especially the White River or The Ouachita. That's wher ah livs!

( :+^}

I can follow your thinking ( don't agree 100% ) - thank you! Now how does AG manipulate gold to readjust dollar to other world currencies? That I can't grasp yet

Some ramblings as I sit in front of my computer screen looking over your posts. Thought number #1: I recently got through paying for my children's

college tuition ( what a far cry it was from when I was in college ) ...so what's my point? My point is that the cost of my children's tuition set me back big time...If the U.S. is going to help bail out economically troubled nations, i.e, Korea, isn't this going to affect our bottom line?

Thought #2: Aren't many U.S. corporations going to suffer in this global economy because: ( 1 ) cheaper foreign imports from Asis will be flooding U.S. markets and ( 2 ) more expensive U.S. goods will be less desirable in foreign markets?

Thought #3: Is this new global warming treaty, if ratified by Congress, going to hurt the U.S. more than any other country? Our cutbacks will be in auto emissions...in other countries it may take theform of cutting down a few less trees or burning a little less coal.

Finally, it's still hard for me to get a handle on where gold is going...whether's it's bottomed, or not. All I know is that the rules have changed and I believe that it will make it more difficult for gold to come back unless something happens to shake confidence in the U.S. Dollar.

Also, although I have not done it yet myself, I would be a buyer of slightly

to moderately out-of-the-money "puts." My view is that there is little upside potential for the market going forward. I still like oil going forward...I mean way forward...possibly as a hedge against inflation

to insure retirement assets. However, if this global warming agreement is accepted by Congress, then I believe that will lessen but not totally diminish oil's impact as a safe haven in the future.

Thanks for reading my ramblings. I would welcome your comments.

Tonite on Strickly Business, William Siedman said that the IMF was "BROKE" and Laurance Kudlow said "Good lets get rid of them". Last week on CNBC Laurance Linsey ( former governor Fed Reserve ) said that the IMF was a "FACELESS INTERNATIONAL BEURACRACY ACCOUNTABLE TO NO ONE" then he continued "WHY SHOULD THE U.S. TAXPAYER PAY FOR THIS LET THE GOLDMAN SACHS AND THEIR STOCKHOLDERS PAY FOR THEIR BAD INVESTMENTS"
I agree and I have been writing my senators and congressman and telling tham that I am sick of the U.S. taxpayer being made a sucker. Why dont you do the same.
By the way the IMF is supposed to have about $25-30 billion in Gold if the price goes to $2000 oz they will have all the money they need to carry out their carnage.

G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

A useful publication in the understanding of Gold and Derivatives is...

"The Derivatives Revolution" by Jessica Cross, Rosendale Press,

ISBN 1 872803 18 0.

Answers to all your questions on forwards, funds, futures, gold loans, hedging, options, spot deferreds and warrants. Given the current chaos that derivates have placed on the market, and the possibility of a future gold standard - is Regulation on the way?!

Jessica Cross works as a Research Economist / Gold Analyst with Rio Tinto ( Rothchilds ) .

Aye, Haggis

RE your 13:19 .Any reasonable person can understand that when one is
on top ( like the US is now ) One will do almost anything to stay there.
Question as to validity of the US printing a NEW US$ have been answered in of all places the press ( I pointed to the PBS Frontline Doc )
In that broadcast the angle given for the eventual introduction of the NEW US$ was because of a perceived threat of massive PHONY
US$ illegally being printed elswhere. The program went on to mention
as an example that almost 1/2 of the US$ bills held by Russians are
COUNTERFEIT, and the laundered US$ are ending up at the FED.
A very important fact mentioned was that the then SHAH of IRAN when
the US essentialy handed him the throne, requested and was provided
with a printing machine ( to print Iranian money ) exactly like the one the US Fed uses. This was the only such printing machine that has been allowed to be sent outside of the US mainland and the fear is/was that
the New Islamic Iran was printing PHONEY US$ bills .I am of the opinion
that nothing has been done on this matter to date because of the literal
panic into GOLD by said foreign US$ holders since there would be no way of knowing if the US$ they held were legit or not! Not to deminish
the importance of this problem, IMHO they may have chosen to wait
for the real debt crisis to hit before announcing the introduction of the NEW DOMESTIC US$ earlier mentioned ,Gold Backed or not.

digdeep---

the us pays 18% of the imf's bankroll....guess where the money goes!
guess how much we pay for 'our' part of the un....: ( very ugly......

we can barely pay the interest on our own debt.....

mexico, pac-rim countries, russia, canada ( next ) , mexico ( again soon ) ....

there is fixing to come a point in time ( very soon ) when this international house of cards ( all fiat curriencies ) will implode
and follow ALL their predecessors.....into extinction.

cherokee!; ) ---put ( ting ) -corn&peso--and-call ( ing ) -gold---gold-n-gold!; )

Thanks for the response and the complete quote. I am aware that the US saved its own skin by bailing out Mexico. I believe that Mexico has now repaid the loan. The same process I presume is planned for Asia and if the Congress prevents it from happening then the problem will undoubtedly arrive at the US shores--and then ours.

G'Day Joe from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

Thanks for your info. I posted info on the Munni Munni Complex, East Coast Minerals and Legend Mining over a week or so ago. Good to get additional confirmation. To all North American investors, these stocks are STILL cheap, and will go UP. The Aussie market is a bit slow to catch onto a good thing.

Aye Haggis

-----the-hammer-and-anvil---------

--will meet this week or next----me thinks this week....

----we do indeed live in interesting times....................

-------the times, are fixing to get much more interesting............

-----------buckle-up-----the limb blast-eth off-eth......................

If Greenspan was a goldbug, he is certainly in a position to return the US to a gold standard or at the very least take steps to force the issue into the open and have a discussion in economic policy making circles about it. And yet he does nothing but make occassional veiled utterances about the theoretical benefits of such a system.

Greenspans no gold bug, he grew out of that fashion long ago. Sure he will say he would like to have a gold standard, just like you would say you would like to do the things you once railed about when you were 16 years old. But he's grown up and knows better. Its a pity you have not.

The US is not returning to the gold standard. Gold will continue to be eliminated as a piece of the global monetary system. It is a commodity and nothing more. Once central bank hoarding of the yellw metal ends the price of gold will be 16 times silver or about $100.

All the hand ring about the economic meltdown of Korea is misplaced. General Electric has a greater market capitalization than the entire stock markets of Korea, Thailand, and Malysia.... All these countries could sink into the pacific ocean and in real terms the global financial system wouldn't even notice them as missing.

haggis_a---

a question or two if you've the time............


what is your perception of us politics?

what is the australian perception of us politics?

how do you perceive the clintons? australians in general?

what is your gut feeling for the currency problems spreading like the roos?

Selby: As I recall the Mexican repayment of its loan to the US was not exactly a clean deal. If I remember correctly, the IMF was stiff armed to loan Mexico the funds to repay the US. ..... and thus provide Clinton/Rubin an opportunity to tell the rest of us what a good decision it was to loan Mexico the money in the first place. Of course, US banks got theirs up front out of the initial loan. Can there be any doubt tbat the present world exists only for the pleasure, profit and convenience of the banking system? ...... Shakespeare had it wrong. We should kill all the bankers ...... then the lawyers will have less to do.

use this

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/hottips1/_vti_bin/shtml.dll/disc1_srch.htm

and enter ECM in search engine

There's a crazy conspiracy theory going around that 2 boys from Mena were murdered because of drugs being smuggled into the airport, and that six ( 6 ) witnesses who came forward to testify in the case died mysteriously; e.g., suicides from gunshots behind the ear or the back of the head, etc. I understand the official ruling was that the boys fell asleep on the r.r. tracks.

Don't know how big Mena is but 8 mysterious deaths in a short time related to one case seems like a lot. Do you think the theories have any validity, or is this just another of the flukes of probability which plague B.C.?

Is your server up yet?

As Vronsky, and others, have previously explained, Gold is not a commodity. It is instructive to note that no country, to my knowledge, places barriers to its' entry. These prohibitions are fairly common with real commodities.

when the seaech form comes up put in ECM after

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/hottips1/_vti_bin/shtml.dll/disc1_srch.htm

Earle: That is the Mexican story as far as I recall. The IMF gave the money to Mexico and then Mexico gave the money to the US banks and then they all declared that Mexico had been saved.

I guess we are seeing the re run now with Asia. Only this time the IMF is going to have trouble giving the money to the Orient because the US Congress doesn't want to give it to the IMF to start the scam. Lots of US election-anti Clinton politics to dance through before this episode is over.

when the seaech form comes up put in ECM

Clinton side-stepped congress to bail out Mexico. Congress did not vote on the Mexican bailout.

I'm also anti Rebublicans who want to raise taxes to bailout Goldman Sachs.

Yours at 22:01 is only proving that a manic stock investing public has vastly overpriced GE. That is a similar statement to the Japanese claim that, based upon Tokyo land prices in 1989, the land under the Imperial Palace was valued at more than all of California combined.

It was proved not true about California and it will be proved not true about GE,

Dave in CO: There is no ( important ) stomach strong enough, anywhere in the US, to take on Bill Clinton and his peripheral peregrinations. It just ain't gonna happen. Ever.

There is just too much money riding on this fella to allow silly notions about justice and the rule of law to be given any more than cursory lip service. For further evidence of such; merely review the past 5 years. Millions $ spent and not a thing to show for it. By all accounts the Clinton administration is as clean as a hound's tooth.

No. He will expire peacefully in his own bed ..... with or without his lovely wife "Bruno".

Any idea what the level of the Dow and/or S&P would be given normal dividend yields and PE ratios ( assuming that it's not "different this time ) ? Thanks.

Is Gold Next or one of those best secrets?
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/nao/biz/062296/biz01_17049.html

I believe the Mexico Bailout was classified as "IN THE NATIONAL
INTEREST" ( Oil & Big Immigration Problems ) and thus Clinton acted but I don't feel that he would be able to sell the same to US Public on the current SE Asian"crisis".I kepp hearing about this Mexico miracle? Ask a Mexican today if he/she is better off, currency worth cut in 1/2, double
digit inflation for almost 3 years etc.....some miracle.

Donald: I wonder what GE's market cap, in terms of gold, was in the 30's versus today. ..... One of the few original DOW components.

Throw Japan in the mix, and its worth ringing your hands over. Japan, Korea, Thailand and Maylasia have combined GDP of close to 1/2 the US's. If the IMF can't bail out tiny Korea, what's going to happen to Japan?

Greenspan asked that same question of his staff about six months ago. They developed a model that compares the interest rate on the 10 year bond with stocks and answered "overvalued by 20%" My guess would have been higher but I can't defend it.

I agree with you 99% but there's that 1% of me that can't believe what these people are getting away with.

Sleeping with "Bruno." Now there's a mental image that will give me nightmares tonight.

Hundred Billion here and there and soon your talking big money!

I really have no direct knowledge re: the two boys. It happened in a community around a hundred miles from Mena.
No deaths connected with the Clintonoids have occured very close to here.
The airport used by Bobby Seal is located here. The area where The Contras were ( purportedly ) trained is about 15 miles away, partly in Oklahoma.
I am personally acquainted with the Arkansas State Patrolman ( Investigator ) who did the body of the work on the drug aspect.
Anthrax was administered to him somehow and it was due solely to his wife's perspicacity that he was given the life-saving treatment.
Our li'l community is very like any other. We have people here who do "business" in much the same way as the international elitists. Remember, Clinton didn't learn all his trashy ways from the CFR and The estimable F. Carroll Quigley-his mentor @ Georgetown University.
Had B.C. not been amenable and had not possessed the character deficiencies necessary for a fledgling power broker ( Megalomaniac ) he could not have been nurtured and prepared for the work he is now doing.
As to the major goings-on in and around Mena, we were in Winnemucca, Nevada for the majority of the time. I have friends who fly and are very closed-mouthed about the entire operation. Safety first,eh?

Dave in Co: Lets see if Clinton can get around Congress when it comes to the Asian "crisis". Its the US Treasury that has the problem this time not the US banks.

bej ( Your 12/12 22:25 ) - You asked me about "Platinum being hinged at the hips with gold"

I am suffering along with you and wondering why. I saw platinum jerked away from gold early this year by the rise in palladium. This made sense, as platinum and palladium have many similar industrial uses. Just when I started betting on the relationship holding, platinum collapsed ( along with gold ) but palladium held.

I have thought a lot about this. First, I don't think that gold and platinum are "hinged at the hips", although it looks like they are. I think they are both suffering from a common problem, weakness of the currencies of the buying countries with respect to the US$. For gold, India and SE Asia are major buyers of gold, and their currencies have been creamed lately. For platinum, Japan is the major buyer, and you know what is happening there.

Why has palladium held up. I have a couple of theories. First, platinum has a large consumer market in Japan, jewelry. Impact of currency weakness on consumer buying would be immediate, and magnified by psychological factors. Palladium use is almost all industrial. Here you would expect to find long term contracts, and hedging practiced to eliminate risk of currency exchange rates. The impact of currency weakness would be less severe and less immediate. My other theory is that palladium, being such a thinly traded metal, is subject to manipulation. At the end of the last three quarters, the price of palladium converged on a level and stayed there. Then there was a large jump at the beginning of the next quarter, as market forces took effect. I don't know this for a fact, but I was watching the recent price movement ( or lack thereof ) of palladium quite closely lately, and up until the end of last week, when it finally started dropping a bit, it seemed to be very tightly controlled, while the other metals were jumping all over the place. Very, very suspicious.

You say you are long platinum at $450. Not a pleasant ride down. I don't feel comfortable making recommendations to anyone, but I will share my thoughts.

1. Supply/demand: They say demand has been outrunning supply lately. Perhaps this is or was true. Will it continue, in the face of business and financial crises in so many areas of the world? I'm not at all confident that it will. Thus the threat of further shortages, a la delays in Russian shipments, may be empty threats. The market seems to be telling us not to worry about shortages.

2. Currency: If you saw my earlier posting, you will be aware that the currencies for gold buying nations are further weakening, at a very rapid rate. For platinum, I don't have access to market breakdown by country, but I would watch Japan. The Yen has dropped 15% since platinum was at $450. This could easily explain a $60 drop in the price of platinum. If the Yen starts to recover vs. the dollar, platinum has a chance of recovering, but the psychological affects of Japan's financial crisis could still be a dampener.

3. PL/PA spread: The price difference between platinum and palladium has only fallen below $200 twice in the last 18 years. Both times when it did this, it bottomed out around $140. If PA drops to the levels of earlier this year, say $130, this would put platinum at $270 ( perhaps around the price of gold at that time ) . If PA stays around $200, this would put platinum at $340, still a drop from today's prices.

Ultimately, I think it is quite possible that platinum may drop back down to the price of gold, where it was at the beginning of the year. This means it still has quite a ways to fall. I'm inclined to exit my platinum positions ( at a loss ) , and I may do so next week.

Whatever you decide to do, best of luck to you!

12/9/97 -- 1:25 AM

Oops: 2000 means huge paychecks
By FRANK RUIZ of The Tampa Tribune
------------------------------------------------------------------------


TAMPA - A shortage of skilled computer programmers in the Tampa Bay area prompts some people to switch careers.



The date is Jan. 1, 2000.

It is Saturday morning but a bank's computer believes it is Monday, Jan. 1, 1900, and so it opens the vault while no one is there.

The large mainframe computer used to track $10,000 you've got invested subtracts $80,000 from your account instead of adding $250 in interest, as it should.

Military computers launch missiles. Sprinkler systems go haywire. Telephone companies send outrageously high phone bills. Birth records get lost. Marriage licenses become invalid. Depending on your age, you might not even exist, at least not on computer records.

Welcome to the Year 2000 Crisis, a global problem caused by corporate computers not being able to ``think'' in more than two digits when tracking time.

``It's a huge problem,'' said Rachel S. Gurland, who left a career as a teacher in Seffner to make ``substantially more money'' as a COBOL programmer for Decision Consultants Inc. in Tampa.

Nationally, an estimated 3 trillion lines of programming code must be changed to avoid such scenes.

That's partly why Gurland, who has a master's degree in education, not computer programming, left the one-room Seffner school for gifted children to take programming. The money is good and it took only an eight-week programming boot camp to get hired.

Now, Gurland is helping fill an estimated 40,000 jobs created nationally by the attempt to avoid the Year 2000 Crisis.

So severe is the talent shortage that many companies offering top dollar still can't find nearly enough people.

``We have a back-fill of about 200 people we could use right now,'' says Gurland's supervisor, Ron Branch. ``We're definitely looking for a few good people.''

Marsar & Co. Inc., a Tampa high-technology search firm, can't find enough qualified people in the Bay area. It must sometimes reach out of state and then offer salaries up to $76,000 a year to lure prospects here.

``Three or four years ago, I had mainframe programmers begging me to put them to work,'' said Mark Fries, a Marsar & Co. headhunter. ``Now, I can't get enough of them. If I had 30 people right now I could put them to work today. I interviewed one today.''

Michael M. Sigler, former assistant controller at Citicorp in Tampa, switched careers at 52 and now pores over COBOL computer code at North American Mortgage.

``They faxed me an offer I couldn't refuse,'' he said. ``I showed it to my boss and said, `Hey, I have to quit. Look at this.' ''

Sigler wouldn't say how much he is making as an entry-level COBOL programmer for his consulting firm, Systems and Programming Consultants Inc. of Tampa.

``The money is much better,'' he said. Sigler expects raises to be double the 5 percent or so he might have gotten at Citicorp.

Colleges and universities can't keep pace with demand.

The University of South Florida Division of Lifelong Learning has structured a class specifically to produce COBOL-qualified programmers, said division course director Michael Pheneger.

``The course will give students the equivalent of two semesters of COBOL and make them familiar with the necessary programming techniques needed,'' Pheneger said.

Tom Craig, course instructor and a COBOL programmer himself, characterized demand as ``extremely heavy.''

``We've placed some students before they've even finished,'' Craig said.

The problem exists because old mainframe computers used by corporations track time in just two digits, as in 1/02/97.

To make matters worse, some computers won't recognize ``00'' as a valid date. Others will interpret ``00'' to mean 1900, because the machines can only think in terms of 19--.

``That's it in a nutshell,'' Craig said.

The reason for the demand, Craig said, is that modern programmers have learned new languages, such as C++ and others.

What is needed are programmers who understand the ancient COBOL programming language invented decades ago. In the interest of efficiency, programmers of early computers used only two digits to express years in a date field. These programmers never expected the practice to survive for decades, but it has.

It is a problem Merrill Lynch analysts estimate could cost $600 billion to fix.

And there are only 25 months before the crisis begins. There will be no extension of deadline.

When 2000 hits, computers will either work or they won't. Some could go out of business.

``This is a problem that could take one or two years to fix, but some companies just aren't paying attention to it,'' said Lon Lancaster, marketing director for GTE Year 2000 division. ``They're in denial right now.

``We're not trying to scare anyone. But I've heard estimates that as many as 20 percent of American companies could go belly up if the problems aren't fixed,'' he said.

Reports from CNN that about 5% of Internet traders are addicted to
e-trades, and do so compulsively around the clock and can't stop.The report goes on to say that some have lost millions of dollars addicted to trading much like Vegas Casinos.Look for a number of new" Trader Rehab companies to be listed soon on NYSE. If this isn't compelling evidence of a manic top I don't know what is.

TZADEAK: The point I was trying to make is that the Mexicans and the Asians don't count when the IMF "bails them out". Its the US banks that Mexico owed who got the IMF money and its now the US Treasury debt that the Treasury doesn't want back that the Asians will keep when the IMF "loans" them the money. Mexicans and Asians likes or dislikes or living conditons aren't part of the equation.

http://stocks.miningco.com/library/weekly/bl100997.htm

But the importance of the Mexican OIL to the US is what I was pointing
out, IMHO It will be difficult indeed to sell to the US public the importance
of S. Korea, when the US worker views S. Korea as the competition
for jobs.

dave-in-co----

mena is a very small town with a population less than 5k.

my parents live there and everybody in that town knows that
they were murdered, possibly for witnessing drug trafficking
at menas' airport. it is ironic, as pot growing in the quachita
mountains around mena is rampant, and probably their greatest
cash cow. military choppers over-fly this huge nat'l forest
everday looking for the hill-billies and carpet-baggers growing
huge pot crops. this area is very dangerous in the growing season.

children murdered for power.......profit.....greed......power....
how low can they go? chaos and flux......the pendulum...think of it,
life taken from innocent youth, it must weigh heavily on those who
await their reckoning.

fell asleep on train tracks...right, AND they believe the sleepwalkers
will bite. and they do.

how horrible, to be represented by such groups. an outside observer
with his finger on THE button, would never hesitate.

cherokee!; ) ---roaming-the-quachita-mountains-of-mena-arkansas---

concerning OJ: yes, EB, I'm still in...are you? How about you D.A., ???

Dave in CO: Difficult though it may be; just consider the present day central government ( as opposed to Federal Government ) to be nothing more than another marker in the death spiral of the USA.

No purpose is served by allowing the gastric juices to get all stirred up over something beyond our control. Insulate yourself from the bastards. It's the only option available.

Hadn't read about the Ark. trooper who was attacked with anthrax. When you get your mail up please send more info on that. Can understand the people's reluctance to talk considering the consequences. Thanks.

earl----

----salutations oh big-kahuna--------

where is ted?

I understand SPX put LEAPS are European style, and cannot be exercised except at expiration ( correct? ) ....but, can they be sold before expiration?

I emailed a fair sized page today. Reply back here if you got it. I'll be on and off 'til 10 your time. ( MTN Standard? )

Wednesday December 10 12:49 PM EST

Firm: Millennium to bring recession

CHICAGO, Dec. 10 ( UPI ) _ A Chicago financial firm ( Wednesday ) says the millennium will bring a devastating global recession because many computers can't read the year 2000. The Millennium Investment Corp. says trade and production will be hindered by the computer systems' inability to recognize the last two zeros.

WDL: Ur 21:14 point #3 - there are many scientists with excellent credentials that say global warming is cyclical and not caused by man's activities. It was but a few years ago we were being told another ice age was on the way, you may recall. The radical environmentalists along with their friends in the liberal press never consider the costs of their activities do they? And often their efforts turn out to be counter productive even for their goals. When are enough people going to wake up as to what is being done to them?

For Oris

I liked your posting about the importance of

weapons and the ability to produce them. Particularly

nukes.

Add this ingredient to my budding South African

conspriracy theory. RSA had nuclear capability.

RSA had an advanced arms industry ( to the degree that

they could make a good attack chopper ) . RSA produced

over 1/3 of world's gold and well over half the PGM.

They HAD to neutralized via sanctions using the

straw man of apartheid. Once the RSA nukes were

destroyed, the US ( and surrogates ) lost interest in

RSA overnight.

For Karlito -

Im curious- What motivates a man to spend time in

a chat group about gold when he thinks gold has no

future and all the people in the group are fools ??

It's strange to me. Why do we fascinate you ???

You seem to be on a tight schedule - speeches -

catching planes kind of very important things. Why

do you waste your time here ?? Dont you have better

things to do?? Are you dedicating your free time to

saving us from ourselves ?? Curiouser and curiouser

Cherokee: Oui Amigo. I tried to develop a life away from Kitco and the net. .... It was working. ... For awhile anyway.

Anybody Know if the bill passed?
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d096:SN03181:@@@L>http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d096:SN03181:@@@L
Gold Reserve Act of 1980 - Cancels the gold certificates issued pursuant to the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. Transfers the right to the gold to the Federal Reserve banks holding such certificates.

Requires such banks to buy and sell gold at specified prices in return for payment with Federal Reserve notes . Restricts changes in the monetary base based on the amount of gold reserves. Requires the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to proclaim a gold holiday if gold reserves fall below or exceed by specified percentages the target reserve quantity.

Directs the Secretary of the Treasury to issue gold coins to meet public demand.

Amends the Federal Reserve Act to repeal the authority of the Secretary of the Treasury to call in all gold.

IMHO the radical "liberals" are merely pursuing business as usual, namely socialist revolution. What they see as the problem is new but their answer is the same as in the late 1800's in Britain, 1910's in Russia, 1930's in Germany, 1940's in China, 1960's in the US. Now that I have a decent browser and word processor program, I'll try to get back to you with a synopsis of academic revolutionary theory as time permits. I tried it a few months and had to chop it up so much it was unreadable.

IMHO the bottom line is that Western nations are overripe for major revolutionary change and social unrest...caused by these same fools. So keep your powder dry.

We have had our share of peculiar happenings around the Mena area. We had 5475 in city limits in 1990 census. Since have added probably a thousand in city proper.Maybe a couple more k outside city limits. Our economy has blossomed these past five years, for many reasons.
As with any community, the exotic becomes exagerrated and the ordinary folks keep their heads down and their hinies in the air, as good li' ostriches are wont to do.
The kids were from Searcy or some other place very near to Little Rock.
Over a hundred miles from Mena.
Crime in this community and the county is at a rate so very low in comparison to the average metro areea that we don't even feel as if there is any.Look to this site and others linked to it for a little more info.

http://www.mena-ark.com/class/land/gigax/rivebend.htm

I wonder if anyone has bothered to put together a chart with $US per OzAg, OzPt and per unit of various currencies. I'd be willing to bet that what we're really seeing is the growth of a $US blowoff peak. It just looks like a valley because we've mistook the numerator and denominator.

Gold low, stocks high. Simple, eh?

The managing director hinted last week that he might ask IMF members for
more resources. Referring to the Hong Kong deal, he said: "That was not
enough, as I said in advance. So nothing is easier than to proceed to a new increase in the quotas, because it will not cost you a dime and it is the most efficient way to solve the great problems of the world."

Wow, this guy is tax and spend!

Thanks for the responses. You're right - worrying about the inevitable is fruitless. Do you think there will be a safe place to "insulate" your family and yourself when the chaos when the material hits the fan?