Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

Dave in CO
(Sun Dec 14 1997 00:04 - ID#215211)
@John Disney,Cherokee_A,Earl,tolerant1,WSF,et al
Really appreciate all of your contributions. Please keep 'em comin'.

John Disney: Good point on the people dedicating their time to saving us considering the abuse they have to endure. It's almost religious with them. Sorry, gotta go. Have to make a speech to the dog and catch a bus.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 00:06 - ID#256201)
The video, "Mena: The Coverup" by Media distributions and/or Jeremiah Films, does, I think, have the details re: the anthrax attack on Investigator Russell Welch.
The Mena Connection is another video you might be interested in.
Did you read the email?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 00:08 - ID#335184)

Donald-A: I read your post of Mr. GREIDER's machinations with rapt fascination. While he grasps the magnitude and immediacy of the finantial SUNAMI in front of us, his proposals to use trade tarrifs as a weapon to force the world to adopt American Liberal Statisim is more scary and far fetched than a Stephen King novel.Whatever the well intended motive may be the result will be the same as Smoot-Halley; PURE POISION for labor and capital alike. He's right as rain about the outragious insult of having us , the American taxpayer, bail out Wallstreet. But then where did Rubin come from, was it not Goldman-Sachs? It is clear that in any bail out the party who is being saved is not the debtor, but the creditor holding the debt! In this case Wallstreet and the N.Y. money center banks. ( These are the same boys and girls who tell us the Bull market in stocks will go on for ever and the Asian thing can't happen here. ) VIVA LA LET THEM EAT THEIR LOSSES!!!! But what a pipe dream. Rubin, Rivlen, Clinton and c

(Sun Dec 14 1997 00:14 - ID#225283)

Just dropping by the site for a moment and I wanted to introduce myself to you...


...I don't really have the time at the moment and this is not the place but I would like to forward to you some vital material on: asset protection, offshore tax and asset protection planning, etc.

You can make yourself Judgement Proof and it is 100% legal.

I often find that many of my high net worth peers are frankly clueless about this area. Unfortunately if you have any real wealth in the United States today you are a target for litagation of some sort...malpratice, shareholder problems, nuisance suits, divorce...

After years of research I have been lucky enough to locate the best professionals in the world in this highly specialized field of pratice. If you would like I could recommend some reading material and provide you with the contacts.

Dave in CO
(Sun Dec 14 1997 00:15 - ID#215211)
Yes, thanks, got your email and responded with a brief one. Heard about those videos but haven't seen them. Wonder how many pages of conspiracy books have been written about this president compared to others. Must be a ratio of 1000's to 1. There's so much smoke it's hard to believe that there's no fire. But as Earl said, what can we do?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 00:21 - ID#335184)

Donald-A: I read your post of Mr. GREIDER's machinations with rapt fascination. While he grasps the magnitude and immediacy of the finantial SUNAMI in front of us, his proposals to use trade tarrifs as a weapon to force the world to adopt American Liberal Statisim is more scary and far fetched than a Stephen King novel.Whatever the well intended motive may be the result will be the same as Smoot-Halley; PURE POISION for labor and capital alike. He's right as rain about the outragious insult of having us , the American taxpayer, bail out Wallstreet. But then where did Rubin come from, was it not Goldman-Sachs? It is clear that in any bail out the party who is being saved is not the debtor, but the creditor holding the debt! In this case Wallstreet and the N.Y. money center banks. ( These are the same boys and girls who tell us the Bull market in stocks will go on for ever and the Asian thing can't happen here. ) VIVA LA LET THEM EAT THEIR LOSSES!!!! But what a pipe dream. Rubin, Rivlen, Clinton and company weren't sent to Washington to allow this to happen. However, the problem appears to be beyond their capacity to control. BOJ options for Japan are the same as U.S. options as Reserve Lender to Korea and Asian tigers as will be the case for U.S. economy when it's turn comes in 98-99, except we will then be the last "GREATER FOOL". Options are : ( 1 ) sell U.S. Bonds and repatriot funds to reflate and rehbilitate select key financial institutions ( not enough $,U.S. securities may be 200 billion vs. 1.2 Trillion in red ink ) ; ( 2 ) Print Yen and loan more money; ( 3 ) allow the most profligate and speculative institutions to fail and ( 4 ) a combination of 1,2 & 3.
Above all the price of gold must not be allowed to signal to the world the depth and acuity of the dire situation rolling about the globe. The CB's are lending 8000 T. of AU or whatever amount is needed to make sure capital flight out of U.S. securities does not happen and to divert attention while AG ,et al,ponder how to put the beast back in the bottle and Wallstreet figures out how to pin this tail on the American taxpayer patsy/donkey. They've got the gold to depress price, but will they contain the money supply while addressing the bankruptcy and structural profligacy from Hongkong to the Empire state ???- the proverbial 64K question. M-3 growth at 11% suggests the cat is already out of the bag and running scared.
The taps have benn wide open for more than a year and prices are still falling because while the problems of over capacity and resulting depression are created by unsound monetary policy, the structural problems of over-capacity and mis-allocation of capital can only truly be addressed through the market discipline of the crucible of bankruptcy. Clinton may feel our pain and AG may try to ease it' ( a process he refers to as the horns of a "moral hazard" dilemma ) , but get ready for the Mother of all painful experiencies, that is STAG-FLATION, spelled DEPRESSION wether rates are HIGH or LOW.
I would be most interested in your views as well as others. Thanks for the post. It made me ancy to read it, but pecking out this response was cathartic.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 00:23 - ID#225283)

(Sun Dec 14 1997 00:29 - ID#215208)
Hills and valleys
223 - If you are in the US its a valley, if your are in India or Japan its a hill. But I agree with you in that its really not a gold problem or a platinum problem, its a dollar problem. The US is king of the mountain ... at the moment. How does the song end... all fall down!

I'd love to put the other charts together, for platinum and silver. All I need is the data as to the market breakdown by country. Haven't found it yet.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 00:29 - ID#256201)
DaveinCo@what can we do?
We can inform others; get things to sustain ourselves and others and keep them handy; get plenty powder and keep it dry!!
Don't let the market's gyrations and altitude changes discombobulate you.

Remember the gubmnts odf the world need people. People need as little gubmnt as can be controlled by the people!
I wish I was forty again and know what I now know and had been where I've been since I was forty!! ( :+^}

(Sun Dec 14 1997 00:34 - ID#225283)

I have paraphrased the argument I have made here in the past...thank you ....misery loves company....and if some of these goldbugs think that are hurting now because of some loses ...just wait until it gets real ugly....for all of our sakes I hope I am wrong, but I don't think so...the current social fabric off the world will be ripped to bits in the event of a worldwide DEPRESSION!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 00:40 - ID#215208)
Calling OZ
My world clock shows OZ with 3 time zones: east, west, and central. However, it shows 3 hours difference between the time in the central and west. Is this really true or is it a bug in my clock?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 00:45 - ID#26669)
DJ & PrivateInvestor--one last post for the day
DJ I forget who was the kind soul who posted this, but there are several
available bases. I guess though you could just use base US and squint real hard. :- )

PrivateInvestor: Gee, you sound like my brother in law. Sorry I have lawyers and accountants out the wazoo in my circle of family and friends, but I fall below the threshold of net worth to make more than what I'm doing really profitable. I guess it is the product of too many children and too much money put away already into untouchable areas. My point in the last post on this matter though was that goldbugs aren't necessarily all the sort of folks who pray for disaster. The small daily disasters intrinsic in our culture make diversification of resources important. ( If you, by chance, are Norwegian accountant from SD with premature grey hair, a dipsy wife and 2 cats...I'll talk to you about it at Christmas! )

(Sun Dec 14 1997 01:37 - ID#335184)
Private Investor-Next 64 K-? SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!!!!
So what does one do with the money? SHORT TERM U.S. TREASURIES,as long as U.S. is in strong trend vs. D-Mark and YEN. Japan is setting sun until they get theuir structural problems under control and euro et. al. is holding on by a thread ( Rescession iminent ) . German unemployment at Euro unaceptable levels, Frogs going to 35 hr. week and Tony's mad cow won't even join the Euro $.The Euro $ will never fly. If the Euros can't even agree on a common standard to qurantine a mad cow disease from damaging the public health, how on earth will they reconcile socialist and nationalist fiscal policy from Cicily to Bonn. Yea if mad cows could fly the Euro$ could too.
I am looking to short the market with about 25% of my capital and hold the rest of my powder dry. Cash is the best asset in a depression, not gold. AU is best during a currency devaluation or slide vs. other currencies ( Asian demand is down because devaluation has cut their purchasing power in half,but think about the lucky orientals who bought before their currecy collapsed ) Inflation is good for gold only if interst rates are allowed to lag the inflation rate, not likely to happen on AG's watch, at least not until air is popped from asset inflation already built into U.S. stock market. I DO SUPPOSE THERE ARE WAYS OF REMOVING AG from the helm, but then anything is possible from this regime. At any rate CB's can manipulate AU downward til all the mad cows come home.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 01:38 - ID#393224)
Auraciuos. Check your e-mail. Cheers, Nick

(Sun Dec 14 1997 02:01 - ID#215208)
1996-1997 Gold vs. currencies.
This chart shows even more clearly that the price of gold in US$ is directly related to the weakness of the currencies of the average gold buyer. In the "world gold currency" the price has remained stable over this 2-year period +/-7%.

The only role that CB selling, gold leasing, forward selling, etc. has played, if any, is to ensure that there was no shortage of gold, which would have caused the price of gold to go up worldwide due to a limited supply.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 02:18 - ID#215208)
Good night all!
Appears I am the only one around. Guess I'll knock off.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 03:17 - ID#57232)
Oris -- Military power and gold
Saw your 17:23 post. I think you are saying one thing I didn't. One needs research to maintain military supremacy, and without the gold or its equivalent to maintain a stable currency that is not possible -- in the long run. But - you are right about the short term. And -- those with the weapons can take the gold they need. Though I don't think the USA would ever do this to others outside our country, though the government might do it to us.

I think you are right that the US market will survive the current crisis the best of most world markets at the current time. We may have a bear market, but it will be milder than in many other countries, with the exception of Switzerland, and a few others, I think. The price of gold will rise anyway -- just as you say. And you are right about AG -- he knows all about gold. Too bad he can't do what I think he secretly wants to do -- go back to the gold standard.

I think you know more about military things than I do. Does it worry you that many countries now have ( or will soon have ) nuclear capability -- much of it exported from Russia? Our intercontinental MADD type missles will not be of much value in defending us from terrorist attack. I think the entire world military situation has shifted dramatically since Russia fell -- and we must learn how to defend ourselves from one or more of those 100 or so suitcase nuclear weapons reaching our shores. I'm more than a little worried that most of our military personnel are focused on fighting the last ( cold ) war, and not the small-scale terrorist war on many fronts that will make all of our nuclear weapons useless, as we will not know who to retaliate against, and if we did -- how would we know who in that country was really responsible? Just imagine how unpopular we would be if we dropped a tactical nuclear weapon on Saddam H.

As the only remaining world power, and the first to use nuclear weapons in wartime -- we will eventually be a target. The terrorists that bombed the World Trade center would have used nuclear weapons if they could get them.

So far, we have our freedoms working in our favor, as good times and freedom for all tend to discourage terrorism. Lets hope it stays that way.

I would like to hear your opinions.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 03:46 - ID#57232)
Logging off later than usual -- something on FreeEnergy from Down under!
Those of you interested in potential pollution-free energy sources should take a glance at this web site below. Greg Watson is Australian, and the driving force behind what you will see. I have not made any of these devices, but the author does understand electronics, and does seem to have something significant. I have been following the "free energy" sites, and have been frustrated in the past by the claimed results without any experimental evidence to back up the claims. Now, it seems the experimental evidence is coming out -- at least for ferrite bifilar- wound coils.

The bottom line seems to be that the little magnetic domains in a permanent magnet act like little superconductors. If a very fast pulse is passed through a coil around a ferrite core -- nanoseconds -- one can line up the domains. Apparently most conventional motors, coils, etc do not take advantage of the fact that the post stimulation energy can be extracted from the core, with certain very fast timing circuits, and improve the efficiency of devices using magnetic materials.

Those of you who have worked with electronic circuits know that a large magnetic coil will have a large inductive "spark" when the circuit is opened. The conventional theory is that the energy released is simply 1/2LI ( squared ) , but this is hard to measure at nanosecond or picosecond time scales. Apparently you get some surprises with ferrite cores in the coil, and very short current driving pulses - now possible with electronic equipment commonly available.

This seems to confirm the theory behind the "overunity" Wankel and Takahashi overunity motors the Japanese claim to have built. Read - and enjoy -- We may reach the stars yet.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 03:47 - ID#257148)
Donald -----------Duck-------really!


Seeing as how it's a slow night, and of course a slow night's just fine by the garrulous one, aahhhhemmmm... a little speach... if I may.....

BTW I hope noone missed the post on the relationship between wheat and gold and a possible wheat/gold standard I speached the other day... I am talking Oracle

Donald, thank you for

and the Klondike, I suppose the definitive work on the Klondike Rush is Pierre Berton's classic "Klondike" 1958 Toronto. But recently while I was up Canada way I devoured a wonderful photographic record of the Last Great Goldrush. Vivid photos and descriptions of the journey, the
Valley of the dead horses. 10,000 corpses of the horses that stumbled on that treacherous ravine trail littered the bottom of the valley, the corpses of men too.

That haunting photo of the Chilkoot Pass. No horses by now, only men, a three mile ( ? ) string of men carrying packs of 100 lbs and more, in relays, walk up a half mile, drop bags, go back down hill, relay another 100lbs of vital supplies, drop bags, I am reminded of Sisyphus.

And after the impossible climb, the wait for the thaw, the building of unsafe craft to navigate the treacherous rivers to Dawson. From hesitant memory, more died on the river than in the weeks and months of the treck from Skagway. worse still were those who attempted the overland route across the North of Canada ( memory has completely failed me now )

A centennial?

"At 3 o'clock this morning the steamer Portland from St Michael for Seattle, passed up the sound with more than a ton of gold aboard."
Seattle Post-Intelligence, July 17 1897.

Oh, well, I suppose you have to celebrate when and where you can, and as often as you can,

"From the cradle to the crypt's a mighty short trip,
You better get it while you can."

Steve Goodman. sorely missed


What a chance to captivate the imagination of the Western World for gold. Walt Disney ( not u crusty ) -- Scrooge McDuck-- the klondike gold rush... gold....Imagine if Disney started minting Scrooge McDuck Donald Dollars...then maybe Scrooge McDuck silver Dimes.. you get the idea...Disney and Gold the Marketer's dream eh Mike Sheller {put away your "Get Real, Get Gold T-Shirts- Disney can really rock}, and I thought It was Michael Jackson who was trying to buy/love the world ( well Korean children anyway ) nope, I was wrong, Disney Studios ( Studio_R - u not really Hepcat RU? - cos you is growing on me ) is gonna get there before another's arab consortium can say Mickey Mouse.

JTF just noticed youre up ----early, regards?


(Sun Dec 14 1997 03:57 - ID#38970)
South African Krugerrands
K'rand last traded at $290.30 on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, a significant premium.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 04:12 - ID#257148)
The golden world of books amd fillums
Can anyone tell me the name of that photo book on the Klondike? I'm gonna see if I can find it down here or on-line, thanks. But some photos stay forever in your memory no, even without the book, I see a long line of men, hunched over into the steep incline of the snow-covered Chilkoot not get out of step...must keep going...step, step..just a little more then a step.....just a little more....step, step, step, step, ....

Crusty, thanks for the movie clip this a.m. ( kiwi time ) ....


(Sun Dec 14 1997 04:16 - ID#57232)
Aurator - it's 3AM for me -- will need to get some zzz's!
I have noticed that some the best "free energy" research sites are outside the US - several in Australia, one in India ( Tewari ) , one in Canada, and one in Finland ( Podelknov ( SP? ) -Tampere ) the last by far the best -- apparent gravity nullification ( 5% ) by a card carrying phsyicist type. Allen ( USA ) posted some recent stuff from Tampere!

My point is that not one is from the US. It seems that any US inventor that produces anything in this area is ridiculed or run out of the country before any careful evaluation of the truth of the "free energy" or "overunity" claims can be verified. It seems that with the internet, geniune discoveries in this area ( if they stand the test of time ) will be unsuppressible. But I do find it saddening that our "free" country can be so narrow minded in matters such as these. My sneaking suspicion is that a very small group of individuals within our government, and a few other governments, know about this kind of material already, and wish to keep it for themselves. This is always counterproductive, as some of the brightest most creative minds will not have access to this material. Also, one cannot commercialize a "top secret" project very well. Lastly, such discoveries, if they truly exist should be for the benefit of all. We certainly could do with less pollution, and less dependence on oil. Oil as a non-renewable resource should be used for making plastics and other synthetics. It is waisted in our cars and houses.

I think there is some danger from using this "free energy". I think each device may locally deplete whatever this free energy thing is -- eg the Brown-Biefield experiments appeared to show this -- but I think the rewards are worth the risk.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 04:18 - ID#257148)

(Sun Dec 14 1997 04:24 - ID#57232)
Aurator - youre giving me a chill! Goodnight to downunder!
I do remember being out on cold snowy winter nights -- I can imagine myself trudging through the snow, too. They were tough times, weren't they? Donner pass is another one -- near Tahoe. Every so often one of those gigantic snow blowers spits out a volkswagon that had stranded people in it -- hidden in 10 foot snow drifts.

Did you notice the freak snowstorm today that hit Mexico? First snow in over thirty years. El Nino cold as well as hot?


(Sun Dec 14 1997 07:04 - ID#26793)
FLASH! Korean debt now at $171 billion; debt moratorium rumor circulating.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 07:16 - ID#26793)
Swiss bank merger to eliminate 6% of all banking jobs in Switzerland

(Sun Dec 14 1997 07:25 - ID#26793)
What is the Swiss-Korean connection?
Buried in my post of 7:04 is this little gem:

"Switzerland said on Friday it was in talks with other central banks on fresh aid for Seoul."

It is unlike the Swiss to take a lead in international issues of this nature. If you link that with the giant Swiss bank merger of recent days it makes you wonder if one of those two banks is overly exposed to Korean problems and expects the worst.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 07:40 - ID#26793)
Profits are at risk; Wall Street is overlooking something

(Sun Dec 14 1997 07:48 - ID#26793)
Monetary Base exploded $3.3 bil; previous week revised up .5 bil. Now $493.2 bil

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:02 - ID#26793)
BOJ says economic slowdown intensifies

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:08 - ID#26793)
Swiss Central Bank worried about soaring franc

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:13 - ID#26793)
Dollar high & going higher, possibly 140 yen, inflicting pain on Corporate America

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:14 - ID#31868)
You continue to provide ludicrous input, which is good, because I need a good laugh once in a while. It is your continued and constant diatribe that makes you so comical. Although there is a glaring problem as a standup comic your routine has become stale like a commercial that runs so many times that the message is no longer humorous and long since lost any shard of meaning it may have once held.

You refuse to admit reality, as you will not accept that Mr. Greenspan is an ardent and staunch supporter of the gold standard. In addition you say that gold has no meaning in the new global payments system, refusing to comprehend that it is the internationally accepted scale against which all else is measured.

And last but not least, you remain the pointless ironic. Gold will not see its demise, nor be assigned to the monetary cemetery as has all fiat paper, which has tested its weakness against gold's strength. And history will crush your prognostication that stipulates that gold will be valued at $100.00 American. Just for a moment you should consider that 1-ounce of gold has a value. $100.00, US dollars that is, is nothing more than one hundred pieces of paper, which signify a debt. You must not forget to remind people of that.

I realize that you have grown up to become nothing more than the pointless ironic comic. I have faith that you will survive though as you are so disillusioned that the coming harsh reality will appear as nothing more than another illusion to you as well. Life is but a dream, eh.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:22 - ID#225283)

You sound as though you can no longer tolerate Karlito...could this be true oh great tolerant one...
or do you merely wish to expose him for what he is...IYHO?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:23 - ID#31868)
Donald A
Good morning. I thank you as do others for all of the information you provide via your posts. Thanks, it is much appreciated.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:30 - ID#225283)

Great news usual...thank you very much...these post certainly add to the site as a point of reference, or historical bench mark when reviewing posts at a later date it helps to put that days post in context to what was happening on a given date. I hope Bart is keeping an archive .

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:31 - ID#225283)

So sorry to read about your misfortune. I sincerely hope you are feeling better, and that you make a full recovery.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:31 - ID#31868)
Private Investor
Good morning. I hope your mend is healing and getting better by the day.

Ah, but poor Karlito, disillusioned and living a dream, a merry merry socialists wetdream.

I pity his inability to grasp reality while holding to Stalin's dream of toilet seats made of gold. Perhaps he should look in the bowl and find the resting-place of his thoughts and the true home of socialism. I understand Stalin has already been flushed as communism had to make way at the bottom of the bowl for the advent and increase in socialist waste.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:32 - ID#225283)

any news as to how Arden is feeling .

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:37 - ID#225283)

Yes , I seem to be improving very slowly. It is nice to have the world at ones finger tips... doing a great deal of surfing lately ...and I don't even have to feel guilty about being lazy.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:39 - ID#31868)
Blue Skies?
JERRY J. JASINOWSKID: U.S. jobs and industries lost
Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 The Christian Science Monitor

( December 13, 1997 11:36 a.m. EST ) -- 'Don't knock the weather," advised the late humorist Kin Hubbard. "Nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while."

Recently, weather has become more than small talk. The treaty on global climate change, just completed in Kyoto, Japan, has been agreed to by the United State along with a number of other industrialized countries. The agreement would radically change the way Americans live and work, all in the name of environmental protection.

The irony is that the data on which the treaty is based are highly suspect. Not only are evaluations of the earth's temperature mixed, but the computer models that interpret them are questionable. Put simply, the extent to which man-made emissions contribute to climate change has not been proven.

Scientists are divided, as well. A "disturbing corruption of the peer review process," said former National Academy of Sciences President Frederick Seitz, could "deceive policymakers and the public into believing that the scientific evidence shows human activities are causing global warming."

The relationship between human actions and the climate is being sharply debated. According to Science magazine writer Richard Kerr, "Many climate experts caution that it is not at all clear yet that human activities have begun to warm the planet - or how bad greenhouse warming will be when it arrives."

Yet, there is another dimension to the climate-change uproar too often missed: the substantial human cost of the Kyoto accord. In all the talk about computer modeling, Fahrenheit temperatures, and carbon reduction policies, the reality of human need is often the last thing considered.

Over the past two weeks, the U.S. has agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level 7 percent below that in 1990 by the year 2012. The economic effects of this decision, including widespread job loss, will be at least as severe as the following scenarios, which were based on a program that capped emissions at 1990 levels.

In February of this year, the Argonne National Laboratory completed a study for the U.S. Energy Department on the economic effects of America's binding acceptance of the likely Kyoto protocols. Among the study's findings of the impact of the treaty on U.S. industry and American workers are these:

A loss of 100,000 steel industry jobs and a 30 percent reduction in the number of steel producers;

20 percent to 30 percent of the basic chemical industry would move to developing nations within 15 or 20 years;

All primary aluminum smelters would close by 2010;

A 20 percent loss in the output of petroleum refineries;

American paper production would be replaced by foreign-produced paper;

A quarter to one-third of the American cement industry would shut down.

Another recent study is even more compelling. Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates Inc. found that between 2001 and 2020, the loss per-household from the strictures of the Kyoto accord would be almost $30,000; the average hike in home energy costs would be about $600 a year.

Dr. Lawrence Horowitz of the DRI/McGraw Hill research firm has estimated that to meet the emissions goals of the Kyoto accord, our gross domestic product would go down by 4.2 percent annually, which represents a loss of $350 billion a year in reduced production of goods and services. This, in turn, would lead to an estimated job loss of 1.1 million annually - for 15 years.

America is preparing to inflict enormous damage on its people and economy in the name of dubious science. The new global climate change treaty isn't even "global" - it excludes such countries as China, India, South Korea, and Mexico, whose contribution to the pollution of the earth is growing most substantially.

The treaty won't work, and should be opposed by those who recognize that economic growth and a sound environmental must go hand in hand.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:43 - ID#31868)
Private Investor
Arden appears to be better, he mentioned that the medication given was bothering him somewhat.

My brother has had medical problems for much of his life and the key-board and screen have allowed him to travel around the globe and have opened new vistas within his mind. I can fully understand your comfort in being able to get around by letting your fingers do the walking.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:43 - ID#333131)
Good Morning All, Donald, you may note that the increase in the monetary base last week was all currency printing. Bank reserves actually decreased slightly. So the Fed isn't just creating debt dollars, its creating greenbacks too. Thanks for all the posts. I look forward to signing on in the morning and getting my "McDonald News".

(Sun Dec 14 1997 08:51 - ID#26793)
Good morning. Yes, that increase in the base was all real paper and ink. I am confused by the upward revision and I know that they have revised the way they count money circulating overseas. I wondered if it was repatriated money. I would expect outflow rather than inflow. It could be that overseas holders of dollars are worried about the local banks staying open and are making physical transfers of currency to banks here.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:01 - ID#93232)
Okay, I may have had eight too many last night...but...when surrounded by a bunch of bankers...hell, I had no choice. BancOne ( just bought one of our biggest locals ) , three investment bankers, two local bank Prez's, I start with this gold stuff you guys taught me...they're listening. Then I hit 'em with that "Greenspan's a Goldbug" uppercut. I 'm dancin' perty good now...then, I go with the old gut shot..."I'll tell you what I'm going to do....I am buying gold to use as equity for the "Gold Bank of Oklahoma". "And I'm takin' partners!" "What'd ya'say boys?"
Well it became instantly clear to me...these guys ain't got the money to buy gold. They're paper poor. And well, frankly, I don't need to be seen with that type!

Our motto at the G.B.of O., "OUR EQUITY IS AS SHINEY AS YOUR ASS"...I have to admit, they did like that part....tight-ass knuckleheads..all of them.

I'm offering franchises for a limited time ( ten minutes ) ....I think I'm already oversubscribed.

Tell aurator I ain't hepcat...I don't know who he's talking about. And, did anyone corner KARLITO on exactly why he's against the gold standard in any form? I think I know, he, like the bankers last night can't afford to but $280. gold. Wonder why?


(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:02 - ID#26793)
Leaked OECD report shows world growth in slowdown

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:03 - ID#31868)
Karlito, you should call Jack Welch and tell him he is wrong about GE
Here are excerpts from a piece which ran a couple of months ago on I have repeatedly, and do so again today, tell you that I think a subscription to their newsletter ( and others ) is a must. The information on their site is excellent IMVHO and very well worth every penny you spend on a sub. It is also my opinion that they have called the markets as if they had written the script.

the challenge of a shrinking economy

by Lord Rees-Mogg

Early this month he published his views on the global economy in the ( London ) Financial Times, in a series the newspaper described as dealing with "the challenge of a shrinking world." The key passage from Jack Welch states that "There's excess global capacity in virtually every industry. Change is getting faster." If Jack Welch says this, the rest of us had better sit up and take notice. There is no company that has a better view of the world than G.E.; there is no CEO of a major world industrial company who has more often called the shots correctly than Jack Welch.

Jack Welch's own company, G.E., is an exceptionally well-managed, strong company, but of course it is not perfect. Insiders say that there are cross currents of politics inside G.E., as one would expect. So long as Jack Welch himself is in control, the company will survive all that, but he has been around quite a long time already. As he says, there is excess global capacity in virtually every business G.E. is in.

If Jack Welch is right, and he probably is right, G.E.'s share price is dangerously high. That is the problem of global competitiveness for the United States industry; it is the big threat hanging over Wall Street.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:06 - ID#26793)
Asia may decide to print money to keep the masses tame

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:07 - ID#426220)
Coming off the brilliant SILVER CALL recently, Mike Sheller shares another insightful and quite possibly prophetic outlook for the stock market and precious metals. This will be, if nothing else, a "stress test" of sorts for the stock market. As he sees it, between his calculations and our Jupiterian observations, stocks don't have a chance. Full view from observatory at:

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:13 - ID#344308)

what did the fed do in the years preceding the great crash?

they inflated the money supply 40+%.

they can print all they want, this run-away train cannot be stopped.

the first crash ( '29 ) was orchestrated and perpetrated by jp morgan
and his power hungry cronies. who is it this time?

will you be stored in their silos of misery that have been waiting
68 years for their next crop?


(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:18 - ID#26793)
Deputy Treasury Sec. Summers urges Congress to fund the IMF

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:20 - ID#225283)

I think you are correct about nervious folks overseas transfering funds to US banks. I have heard that the Japanese have begun to do so across the board. Prior to recent shake ups in asia it was unheard of for a "salary man" to place his savings in a US Bank, or investment...with latest problems it looks like the man in the street has "got religion".Previously it was a matter of natiuonal pride to keep all savings in Japan even if yur real return was negative.

I am currently looking into a couple ventures that hope to "SELL US investsments " direct to public in Japan. This window will open on Jan 1, 1998.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:22 - ID#426220)
- Moratorium Rumors of Koreas $171 Billion Debt

- Some believe Korea may stop debt & interest payments to allow time for recovery. This would devastate all international business with Korea

- Not a few experts are now saying ill-fated Korea will need $100-$150 Billion in emergency loans... far more than the $57 Billion the IMF now has ear-marked

- European news sources suggest that one of Switzerlands largest banks ( Swiss Bank Corp or UBS ) may have financially crippling Korean debt exposure... which would explain the rather hasty marriage of both.


FINANCIAL TSUNAMI! ALL WEEK the Worlds Largest Stock Exchanges are awash in RED... and those few that are up, barely eked out small gains. Some exchanges plummeted 5-7%. We are talking down markets in ALL the Americas, Europe, Asian & Pacific countries, Africa and the Middle-East... vivid testament to the worsening Domino Effect gripping the entire globe.

It doesn't take a double Ph.D. in Mathematics AND Finance to understand the IMFs ludicrous folly will NOT prevent the Asian Banking Debacle looming on the horizon of the Land of the SETTING Sun... and the horrific ramifications which inevitably will ensue.

THIS is the LATEST analysis of the Asian Banking Domino Effect by John Kutyn -

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:32 - ID#364147)
THE WHALES ARE BACK(diito my freakin ISP)
THE WHALES HAVE FINALLY COME BACK!! Starting early SAT. morning a few large ( 65-75 feet ) Fin Whales have been swimming and blowing directly infront ( approx 600-700 feet out ) of our house----AWESOME!....They were first sighted near Sydney a few days ago as apparently a large school of Herring brought them into the area....Hour after hour they swim back and forth----blowin tall spouts of sea water high into the air....C if I can post this as my ISP ( that's another story! ) has been down since Friday afternoon,except for about one hour Friday night and 'things' still seem a little shaky.....

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:35 - ID#57232)
Good morning all! S Korean Debt moratorium?
Donald, Vronsky: I think that would be like the US defaulting on their treasuries, right?.

I get the that sinking feeling about S Korea --like that actual debt is many times that $52billion US. All of a sudden S Korea seems to be real unpopular in the official financial community. What would it be like if the US launched some new bonds, and no one stepped up to the plate?

By the way, do any of those Korean gold loaning houses ( whatever they are called ) have outstanding borrowed CB gold? If so, S Korea might have some leverage with the IMF, because if SK does not pay up, someone will have to buy gold, or announce some more ( unplanned this time ) gold sales. Just a thought!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:35 - ID#26793)
@Private Investor
Another possible reason for the increase in the Monetary Base could be a start by U.S. citizens to withdraw cash from banks to put under the mattress. This would leave the banks with insufficient cash for daily commerce and cause the Fed to print physical dollars.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:36 - ID#426220)
...from the frying pan into the fire!!!!!
I am compelled to comment on the the recent observation regarding Japanese savings seeking refuge in US banks: " I have heard that the Japanese have begun to do so across the board." Pathetically, the following leaps to mind"

"... from the frying pan into the fire!!!!!"

History is testament to the fact that the only absolute long-term monetary safety and refuge is GOLD. And I stress the "long-term."

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:36 - ID#225283)
Studio R

Was the big local bank you refered to having trouble.
Which region was it in? If you don't mind my asking.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:43 - ID#364147)
@ ISP 'story' + How bout dem GIANTS(too bad ROR,I feel yer pain)
If you have followed the saga of my ISP you'll remember that Hook-Up Communications ( TSE symbol HU ) is ( was ) the parent company of my yocal ISP---well about a month ago they went into BANKRUPTCY ( how fukin surprising! ) and sold the franchise ( who the hell would want it? ) to another internet company in Ontario called Interhop and it is starting to appear that Interhop is about as competent as Hook-Up ( I love that name--har har ) ....EB: Vis-a-vis Aurator -conspiracy to kill YOU---I'm in the dark and have been for days---if it's not too late will try and stop the 'hit man'......go WHALES.....and gold~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:46 - ID#333131)
cherokee, I don't know when you put your peso puts on, but I commend you. Looks like a good call ( put ) . Headed to 10? Donald. I'm thinking the opposite on greenbacks. That is, They're flying over seas. And the Fed has to print more. They already seem to be Russia's de facto currency. The little guys in other countries may be increasingly doing business only in dollars and D marks. Do you know if Germany is printing D marks?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:52 - ID#57232)
Ted -- Synchronicity? See any whales with satellite dishes?
Now -- Why didn't Aurator tell us his whales were gone -- he's slipping up. Now the oceans make up 3/5 of the worlds surface, and whales brains are much larger than ours -- I wonder -- do they use the net too? Or do they have their own? Seanet? Where do I log on? Or-- do I need an ultrasound converter? Don't have a Babel fish of "Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy" fame ( universal translater ) .

Seriously, what is the Gulf stream doing these days -- is it where it is supposed to be? Most of what I read indicates that the ElNino effect is far more pronounced in the equatorial pacific. Mexico just had a freak snowstorm -- first one in over 30 years.

I would suggest that you don't seakiyak ( sp? ) too close and look them in the eyeball -- they might flip you over by accident -- even if they are watching where they are going and not calling anyone. In my part of the world, you have to watch out for the cellular phone effect -- distracted drivers. We even have a street person with a cellular phone! Won't be long before the cellular phone users use them to log onto the net. Much faster than modems. How about a megabaud -- probably like ISDN speedwise.

Good morning!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:54 - ID#26793)
FLASH! Three top Swiss banks report heavy losses

Robby Hanna__A
(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:56 - ID#356196)

Belated thanks for the news links!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 09:56 - ID#31868)
Dear Assistant Secretary Summers,
You poor misguided Robbing Rubin puppet. How dare you ask the Congress of these United States to give more of the taxpayers money to the IMF. You Sir are an insult to the intelligence of the American people.

I suggest you call Printin Clinton, Enviro-whore Gore, Robbing Rubin and have a meeting about the debt of the United States givernment, yes that's right you putz the giverment, you saw it right.

How dare you discuss the policy of another nation when you and your boss and his bosses have ruined America with your debt and shortsighted political and personal gains.

We the People are the ultimate bosses although you and others think that We the People have forgotten that cornerstone of our great country, the Constitution.

I hope you have a strong personal constitution because the time is up. No more living on our hard work, atop our backs. We the people will no longer allow our mouths to be opened, and put on the curb with your feet on our necks.

Start reading the paper you putz, the want adds section, that should be more than familiar to you the "want" section. But this time it is you that want, and want and want some more and you cannot ride atop the back of us, We the People, any longer to earn a paycheck that you and yours have so severely devalued through criminal actions and taxation.

Oh, and if you see that socialist jackass Camdesuss with his hand out tell him I want payment in gold and silver for sleeping with my dog and infecting him with that foul disease for which I have already had to pay the physician.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:02 - ID#57232)
Japanes savings flight to dollars?
Vronsky: Interesting point. What would you do if your government decided to use your savings to bailout some insolvent companies or countries? And -- very conveniently -- gold is looking very bad as an investment. You buy dollars! Our US stock/bond market should be soaring as a consequence of the Japanese worries. I think we can forget S Korean flight to safety to the US -- they don't have any money left -- probably not even gold. I wonder -- what is going to happen to Russia if the US decides to call in the old paper money and replace it with new -- stampede! Do you know when the deadline is for the new waterproof dollar bills? I haven't seen a single one. I wonder -- do they work in the automatic teller? Are they fireproof too? Too many fires in SE Asia for my comfort.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:04 - ID#426220)
Deepening South Korean Crisis to SEVERELY Hurt Japan

By Kanta Watanabe

"TOKYO, Dec 12 ( Reuters ) - The deepening economic crisis in South Korea could deal a severe blow to Japan's manufacturing and financial sectors, economists in Tokyo said on Friday."

"Japanese manufacturers are expected to suffer a double punch of a slowdown in their exports to South Korea, Japan's second-largest export market after the United States, and also stiffer competition for overseas markets following the Korean currency's freefall."

Amid the Korean currency and stock market turmoil, the Korean Won value of GOLD has soared more than 60% in recent months. And due to Japan's economic inter-dependency with Korea - its second largest trading partner - one may logically predict a serious attack upon the value of Nippon Yen. When this occurs it will unleash Billions of Dollars of Japanese savings, which will seek the safety of GOLD. They WILL NOT FLEE TO T-BONDS, because they are already choking on the inordinate amount they now possess... and are seeking to sell to WHOMEVER!


It was announced today IN WASHINGTON ( CBS.MW ) THAT JAPANESE INVESTORS have already started unloading their vast horde of U.S. TREASURIES... can it be hard to conclude their money will now flow into GOLD?!

Dec 5 - TOKYO:
Per Shuji Karasawa of the Japanese parliament: Japanese gold holdings are far too low

Dec 5 - TOKYO:
Per Head of Japanese LDP: US Dollar dependence too great, we need more gold to offset excessive Dollar dependence.

In light of this Breaking News, a re-read of the ORACLEs prophetic observations and ultimate consequences for the U.S.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:04 - ID#26793)
Carl: German money supply was contracting during the Summer

Silver Bull
(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:12 - ID#287312)

You are a true asset to this group. THANKS.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:13 - ID#364147)
Mornin dude...Didn't take yer advice and was out seakayaking among my large 'friends'....Simply AWESOME nature experience here!!---too bad the 'society' suks~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:16 - ID#228128)
Charts by DJ
DJ: Excellent analysis. Could you share the names of the gold buying countries and where you get info on the amounts of gold that they buy. If the list is too lengthy the URLs will suffice. You really seem to have put your finger on the pulse of gold price. Also, send me an e-mail :

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:17 - ID#93236)
@Private Investor
The local bank is a $1+ bn ( maybe closer to 2 ) outfit called Liberty Bank...this bank needed large equity infusion during the '80's, as did every bank around here during that period. It is an Oklahoma City bank.

The bank's condition presently is fine ( prior to merger ) . It was a good acquisition for BancOne. Liberty has a long and good record here in OKC.

My reference to paper-poor had more to do with the fact that I believe banks in general are undercapitalized. I lived the Penn Square fiasco of the mid-80's here that ultimately brought down three of the nation's largest banks. I see a disturbing parallel developing worldwide to this incredible event that radiated from a measley $250 million bank here. The failing bank stuff gets out of hand real damn quick. Bankers are the most levered guys I know...personally and corporately.

As a side note, I yanked my company's deposits from Liberty last week because I bank with guys that I live with.

Robby Hanna__A
(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:18 - ID#356196)

I figure you to be button-down type guy, with a conviction for your work like that of a religous zealot...which is not a criticism or pejorative statement; simply put, I'm curoius about your comments and work--is it intended to be shared for trading, or just informative and entertaining? Do you trade off of it?

Since you seem well versed in the resources of the internet and knowledgable about where to find them, and since I am not so much a groom to gold as I am a gadabout with all the tangibles, might I ask a favor: I am very much interested in finding other sites where the accolytes and passionate wring hands about their favorite industry with a backdrop of cash pricing to add visuals. Currencies, equities, softs, agriculturals, etc. Are there any other industry sites like Kitco's for gold for other commodity groups that you know of, and would you be so kind as to direct me there. I appreciate your kindness and generosity if so.

The years I spent on Wall St. interviewing top traders, hiring them, raising money and creating managed accounts in offshore funds and partnerships taught me one thing: it's not so much how much you know, but how and when you use it. You are never right or wrong until you pull the trigger...Livermore's last trade, well, bad risk/reward ratio there.

I liked Edwin Lefevre's book on Livermore; never read the others.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:19 - ID#57232)
Donald: I think you have the info scoop of the decade (century?)!
All: Swiss banks in trouble! That is impossible! In fact, one small Swiss bank was forced to close. The Gnomes of Zurich are supposed to be the craftiest bankers/investors on the face of the planet -- "no bank closings in over 100 years", as I recall.

Now we know why UBS and SBC are merging. And I thought they were merging to cover their tracks after loaning and selling other peoples ( non-swiss ) gold -- and making a fortune! Perhaps they pushed the gold sales/loans because they wanted to cover their losses, and didn't quite make it.

At least the Swiss are acting fairly promptly to fix their problems. I'm really not too worried about a financial collapse there. But -- if the Gnomes of Zurich got caught on the wrong side of some derivatives trades, or foreign investments, how about the rest of us mere mortals outside those hallowed halls? What dark secrets are lurking in Citicorp, or JPMorgan, Morgan Guarantee or Chase or HBSC or? How long before the news comes out?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:20 - ID#26793)
Latest Bundesbank press release dated Nov. 19th
Monetary trends in October 1997

In seasonally adjusted terms and on a monthly average, the
money stock M3 ( 1 ) grew moderately in October. The
expansion of the money stock was stimulated by the
banks' heavy lending to the public sector and weak
monetary capital formation. By contrast, high outflows of
funds in the foreign payments of non-banks and a slowdown
of lending to the private sector had a dampening effect.
Domestic non-banks again reduced their portfolios of
money market fund certificates. Seasonally adjusted, the
money stock M3 was 4.7 % higher than its average level of
the fourth quarter of 1996; at an annualised rate this was
5.1 %, compared with 5.2 % in September and 5.8 % in

Among the seasonally adjusted components of the
money stock, sight deposits and shorter-term time
deposits expanded sharply in October. Savings deposits at
three months' notice increased much less sharply than in
the preceding months. There was a marked decline in
currency in circulation.

According to provisional figures, domestic non-banks'
holdings of money market fund certificates declined by DM
1.6 billion net. At the same time, domestic money market
funds reduced their deposits with domestic banks by DM
0.4 billion and their deposits with the foreign subsidiaries
and the foreign branches of German banks by DM 0.2

The investments of domestic non-banks in money market
funds are included in the money stock M3 extendedrather
than in the money stock M3. Figures for this aggregate are
available only up to the end of September, in which there
was only a slight rise in the seasonally adjusted money
stock M3 extended. During the last six months ( April to
September ) it grew at an annual rate of 3 %, and hence at
much the same pace as the money stock M3.

The pace of banks' lending to enterprises and
individuals decelerated further in October, the main
reason for this being the sharp reduction in short-term
lending to the private sector. Additionally, there was a
reduction of DM 3.5 billion in lending against securities to
the corporate sector. By contrast, there was an
acceleration in the growth of longer-term direct borrowing.
Overall, bank lending to the private sector increased by DM
10.1 billion in October, compared with DM 16.7 a year
earlier. During the last six months, it went up at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 1/2 %.

Public sector indebtedness to banks , which had
declined in the previous month, increased sharply in
October. It rose by DM 21.3 billion, compared with a
reduction of DM 9.8 billion in September and an increase of
DM 29.3 billion a year before. This involved solely direct
borrowing ( + DM 22.0 billion ) . In October, the Federal
Government increased its deposits in the banking system,
which are not included in the money stock M3, by DM 0.1

Domestic non-banks' monetary capital formation at
banks was again weak in October. In total, banks received
longer-terms funds amounting to DM 3.4 billion from
domestic sources, compared with DM 8.9 billion a year
earlier. In the past six months, monetary capital with banks
expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 %. In
October, there was, above all, little propensity to acquire
bank bonds subject to price risks; the holdings of such
paper in the hands of domestic non-banks fell by DM 6.1
billion on balance. Savings deposits at over three months'
notice were run down by DM 1.4 billion. On the other hand,
long-term time deposits, which include registered bank
bonds carrying no price risk, increased more sharply than
in the preceding months ( + DM 6.5 billion ) . The banks
received DM 1.1 billion from the sale of bank savings
bonds. The credit institutions' capital and reserves
increased by DM 3.3 billion.

In October, there was a large-scale outflow of funds in
domestic non-banks' external payments, following inflows of
funds in September. This was reflected statistically by the
decline in the net external assets of the banking
system, , which fell by DM 32.7 billion, compared with an
increase of DM 11.8 billion in September. The fact that, on
balance, foreign investors sold German securities in
October - following extensive purchases in September - is
likely to have played a part in that reversal.

( 1 ) Money stock M3, domestic non-banks' deposits with
the foreign subsidiaries and foreign branches of German
banks and the short-term bank bonds and certificates of
domestic and foreign money market funds in the hands of
domestic non-banks, less the bank deposits and short-term
bank bonds of domestic money market funds, calculated
as the average of two end-of-month levels.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:21 - ID#344308)

if you look at the pesos' action in '79 and '80, right before its' crash,
it was identical to this last pattern. this info was posted last week
so all could board the profit train before it proceeded for points south.

what about canada? when is she going down in flames? her propped-up
economy and currency is looking like krackatowa before she was heard
round the world. the first salvos in the currency wars are sending
signals...beware.....beware......beware. things are not ok. they are
going to get much worse before they can even try to think of stasis.

why is it that so many always go down with the ship? is there no desire
to ALWAYS be aware enough to be able to react to ANY situation?

the lemming is relegated to remaining a lemming in lemming-ville
until harvested, or they blissfully try to fly fly cliff-top on high.

canada and mexico-----two financial birds of a feather----

which falls first from their precarious perch? korea needs another
100billion. russia needs 100billion. we need 5trillion.

there is only one choice for the fed----PRINT MONEY------FAST!!

chaos and flux to the n'th degree, with the pendulum chopping left
and right trying to set things right, and eliminate mans blight.

the high ground is site specific. there will be very few with the
correct address. hope your map is accurate and your "vehicle" has
the right tires.

cherokee!; ) ----ridin-the-range-of-the-mind--------imm--dotssmfatimm

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:24 - ID#57232)
Ted- glad you make it back. I was eyeball to eyeball to a grey whale off the coast of San Diego, Calif. Our fiberglass 37foot yawl felt much too small and flimsy. Take care even if they are remarkably peaceful mammals -- put us to shame don't they?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:29 - ID#201238)
thanking you for your concern

Private Investor - thank you for your interest in my wellfare. I am recovering rapidly, still have some pain but not as much as all gold bugs. Today I am off to show some new claims to my business partners, both gold and silver. Outside of a rising gold market nothing is a better tonic for me than the fresh air, blue skies and wide open spaces of the Wonderful Wild West! Again, thank you for your concern.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:29 - ID#225283)
All Back to the future

Regarding a post from several days ago from a "texas---' about silver and gold not being found in the same mines...Next...I must weigh in with the numerous others at Kitco that made posts contrary to this fable.

Re: the shut down of gold mines ...the ancients beleaved it possible to replenish itself and perhaps mutate to platinum.

Since it Sunday...How about some Gold thumping:

A Biblical view, based on the Book of Genesis, held that metallic deposits originated spontaneously at the moment of creation.The Greek philosophers belived that metals were living things that grew and propagated themselves in the rocks of the earth's core. They reasoned that if the other two kingdoms of nature--animal and vegetable-- reproduced themselves by means of seeds given off by their own bodies, them minerals must do the same. By this logic, it followed that if a worn-out ore field were given a sufficient rest, it would replenish itself and become worth mining again.

A corollary to the ancients' belief in "living" metals was the notion that the ncontent of the earth'scrust was gradually and constantly changing, from baser metals to more valued ones.Aristotle, in the Fourth Century B.C. wrote that "nature always strives after the better." B that dictum, lead ore containing some silver was thought t be in the process of transmutatin o pure silver; samples of silver that contained traces of gold, as silver often did ( Mr Texasgoalpost ) , were maturing into gold. So it was argued that if a silver mine were shut down for a generation or two, it could be reopened as a gold mine.

To Mike Sheller:
The astrologers, for their part, contended that metals were directly influenced by heavenly bodies. The characteristics of each of the seven known metals were ascrobed to one of the seven major celestial bodies that were believed to revolve around the earth. They in turn were closely identified with individual gods. the nlively propeties of quicksilver,for example , were associated with Mercury, the nimble messenger of the gods and the swifest of the planes. Iron, the essential stuff of warfare, was believed to be influenced by Mars, the red planet named for the god ofwar. Lead, which was densae and dull, was identified with Saturn, which was the farthest known planet from Earth and appeared to ove the most sluggishly. Gold and silver, of course, were inextricably tied to the sun and the moon.

Aristotle attributed the geological make-up of the earth to the power of the sun. He declared that the rays of the sun caused exhalations that penetrated the earth's crust and made possible new combinations of elements, created metals and minerals, and formed various kinds of stones.

Remarkably, Aristotl's doctrine remained unchallenged for the better part of 2,000 years. It was supported with little change by such intellectual giants of the Middle Ages as Albertus Magnus, Roger Bacon and Saint Thomas Aquinas.

Therefore ,it is not unusual from a historical standpoint...that we have so many farout theories presented in the mainstreme press and even
here on a regular has always been misunderstood.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:37 - ID#57232)
Questions about gold and silver mine profits -- should be ok in non-US currencies

First - gold. If there are countries where the gold price is steady or rising, shouldn't gold mines in those countries remain profitable? Why the worry by Peter Munk, and John Pierre Lassonde?

Second- silver. If silver is rising in US dollars, it must be going through the roof in other currencies such as the S Korean won ( right name? ) , the Indian rupee, and the Mexican peso, etc. When will the Indians, or ? step in and flood the silver market?

Do we have it all wrong? Are we just choosing the wrong gold stocks, or is it because the average gold stock investor hasn't figured out what is happening yet? Am I missing something?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:37 - ID#364147)
@ CherOkee
'Peace pipe' is smokin t'day........

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:42 - ID#426220)
...Unfortunately, they disagree!
PrivateInvestor: REF YOUR  has always been misunderstood.

The following leaped to mind upon reading your comment:
Baron von Rothschild, creator of one of the most famous financial dynasties of modern times, was once heard to have said that: "He only knows of two men who really understand the true value of gold - an obscure clerk in the basement vault of the Banque de Paris, and one of the directors of the Bank of England. Unfortunately, they disagree!"

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:42 - ID#333131)
Economist editorial on S Korea "The measure of the crisis. Women are donating gold rings."

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:46 - ID#333131)
Donald, Bundesbank has reports in English, but I can't down load for some reason.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:46 - ID#426220)
SILVER HAS RISEN MORE THAN A BUCK IN RECENT WEEKS. Internationally acclaimed newsletter editor, James Dines, shares his LATEST ON GOLD. Additionally, he calls attention to two of his favorite precious metals stocks: Agnico-Eagle and Stillwater Mining - both are hot-wired to their charts, just CLICK the name. It is also obvious analyst Dines cottons to silver:

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:47 - ID#225283)

Show me the way to the high ground...your skill at looking back has clearly shown you the future.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:48 - ID#26793)
Chilean gold reserve figures

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:50 - ID#57232)
The Swiss are worried about their currency becoming too strong.
Donald, All: I think we should keep our eyes and ears pointed toward Switzerland. Right now the dollar is very strong, not the Swiss Franc, although the Swiss markets are doing well.

Just what do they know about the dollar, and when do they think it will weaken? If the dollar drops precipitously, that will spook the US markets.

I bet that we will have major US bank losses reported after the holidays. If this happens before Jan 3 or so, it will be bad news indeed.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:52 - ID#41374)
Gold Reserve
Received the Veta rights to there mine in Venezuella on Friday..anyone have a comment what it might do to the price of the stock

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:53 - ID#26793)
Carl: Requires PDF format? But found this on the IMF. Can get partial, not full

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:54 - ID#225283)

Good Point.

I would imagine the overseas demand for silver is part of what is driving it the recent highs. Can't afford gold now....coulda.. woulda.. shoulda.. bought it before full blown c.crash...better at least convert to silver while they still can.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 10:59 - ID#426220)
GENE INGER NIBBLING ON GOLD? (December 12, 1997)
Internationally acclaimed analyst Gene Inger, is beginning to become interested in GOLDs prospects.  doubt the yellow metal is somewhere near at least an interim low point. We view it as a value buy, but not very good as a hedge. As far as gold goes, we prefer stocks to bullion. His complete intra-week report at:

(Sun Dec 14 1997 11:00 - ID#333131)
Thanks Donald
tolerant1, A challenge: See if you can read Donald's post from the Bundesbank without throwing up.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 11:01 - ID#26793)
The U.S. is worried about the high dollar too. U.S. Mfg. can't compete at these levels. Problem is that lowering the dollar can only be done against gold, silver, oil and other commodities. That is inflationary and 5.2 trillion in U.S. bonds will collapse bring on the depression that we have been trying to postpone since 1933. The 1933 Depression will return and take up where it left off. There is no way to beat the market. It always wins in the end. The best you can do is stall it for awhile, but not forever.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 11:06 - ID#31868)
I am attempting to download the file, my computer was doing fine until it started to gag on the continuous mention of SDRs. I will retry and see what happens.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 11:11 - ID#333131)
Your computer is trying to tell you something.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 11:18 - ID#333131)
Off to see George Will dope slap Sam Donaldson. My Sunday morning entertainment.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 11:43 - ID#225127)
gold dealer
Can some one please post A dealer or bank that I can buy 20 to 50 Eagles with out having to wait for the dealer to order them. Thanks

(Sun Dec 14 1997 11:47 - ID#225127)
Gold dealer
Sorry I forget the location, around Nashua New Hampshire.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 11:50 - ID#339274)
GLDR/Gold Reserve
..RJ Looking at "Price Rate-of-change" of the stock ,it is poised to hit 3.5 to 4.0 and eventually 7.5.Nice technical internals.Thanks for the tip

(Sun Dec 14 1997 11:51 - ID#26669)
DJ re:02:01 post--weak currencies and strong dollar.

DJ. Your chart would be a beautiful illustration of the classic transition area to an exponential phase of out of control growth...if you'd plotted it upside down. :- ) It is easy to see if we know where to look. Whether that curve is measured in mice per barn, bacteria per culture plate drunks per streetcorner or grams of gold per dollar it is the same. Sooner or later there will be a correction.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 11:54 - ID#426220)
Coming off the brilliant SILVER CALL recently, Mike Sheller shares another insightful and quite possibly prophetic outlook for the stock market and precious metals. This will be, if nothing else, a "stress test" of sorts for the stock market. As he sees it, between his calculations and our Jupiterian observations, stocks don't have a chance. Full view from observatory at:

(Sun Dec 14 1997 11:55 - ID#26793)
Lee Coins in Merrimack, on Daniel Webster Hwy, right downtown.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 11:57 - ID#26793)
I forgot. You have to call first, they won't open the door to strangers. Ask for Jim Merrow.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:03 - ID#225127)

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:04 - ID#78116)
Non Dollar Price of Gold
JTF, you have it precisely right, and thats just the problem. As the non-dollar price of silver and gold rises, the quantity demanded falls. As global demand falls, the dollar price falls with it. The currency problems around the world are dampening the global demand for gold, and pushing down the dollar price..... just one more factor that will push the dollar price of gold to $100 before we see a real bottom.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:05 - ID#26669)
Donald_A and JTF look at the chart I "borrowed" for my last post.
I believe Herr Klinton is trying to staunch the blood by his huge energy tax proposal, but it won't work for the same reason that has been elaborated before, domestic inflation. IMHO in history the only way to accomplish the same end has always been to gradually crank up tariffs...a thing which the Demokrats will never do. And for all their talk of fiscal conservativism, there are still 'way too many Republicans who believe in free trade for all the wrong reasons.

But the chart is fixing to move to a logarithmic growh phase ( looked at upside down ) which should prove very interesting, before the double digit inflationary recovery hits.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:15 - ID#22956)
Ted - I am back in the saddle......again! whew! The e-mail is back up. The ISP said they 'caught' a 'bug' in its teeth, destroying 2 4gig HD's. yeah, yeah, yada, yada......fifth time in as many weeks that these guys have let me down.........Now, as to this Aurator thing....Mr. NZrator, my lines are waiting.....send the missive.....bring it on. ( btw my comparison of you to Mr foghorn was of the highest compliment. He is truly a gentleman AND an extreme intellect ;- ) ) the klondike for some gold


(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:16 - ID#35767)
Back the dollar with gold priced ar about 1000 per oz. Do a Roosevelt.
All this turmoil wil eventually reach the US this is the logical solution. Then they could print all they want.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:17 - ID#188244)
SNL as news
I hadn't watched Saturday Night Live for ages until last night. I was amazed that Weekend Update seems to have more accurate news than anything else on TV. The details
1 ) Clinton calls Lawrence's false military claims the worst case of lying about militray service since his ( Clinton's ) own.
2 ) TWA 800 crash attributed to a frayed wire in the fuel tank. The wire became frayed when it was hit by a missle.
3 ) Clinton cuts short meeting with Chinese dissident when he finds out the dissident is broke.
4 ) Reno responds to Congressional inquires with "I guess you guys want your homes firebombed and rolled over by tanks."
5 ) Clinton's handlers claim that getting puppy will help Clinton's image- by comparison to a male dog, Clinton's sex life will seem normal.

I think these jokes have much more truth than most of what comes on the real news. I'm sure this is how it was in Russia...

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:17 - ID#93236)
Citizens of asian countries may buy gold because, in their economic environment, it's price is escalating in terms of their currency. This could be viewed as a profit. Muck akin to buying a stock and watching its price increase, here in the U.S. ( to date ) .

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:18 - ID#78116)
It is obvious to me that you are an embittered loser. Someone who is a failure in life and can only fine satisfaction lashing out at others who have succeeded where you have so miserably failed. Anyone who has embraced gold over the past twenty years as you so clearly has must have lost several life fortunes, made all the more embittering as others grew rich doing precisely the opposite of what you were doing.

Your critique of the global economy is laughable. Your harsh criticism of such economists as Larry Summers is pathetic. Larry Summers has forgotten more economics than you will ever be able to cram into that dim-witted intolerant head of yours. You have nothing of value to offer, only a constant spew from your putrified spleen that has rotted as the rest of the world has grown rich with prosperity. I have nothing but the deepest pity for you, my only hope is that others here will not follow your pitiful example and end up broke, broken and embittered.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:22 - ID#225283)
Studio R

Penn Square Bank...

Most people at this site might not agree but RONALD Reagan was the ultimate cause of that failure.

Why do I that you ask?

Well, as a native San Diegan I was well aware of a gentleman named Edwin Gray..a cogenial former PR man for Great American Savings First Bank of San Diego, California. His old friend from California, Ronald Reagan, was the keynote speaker at the U.S.League of Savings Institutions in 1982 ( New Orleans ) which he attended. Gray and Reagan go way back--Gray had been Reagan's press secretary during his years as governor of California. Grey had worked briefly for Reagans admn. but left to take the PR job back in San Diego.

Ronald Reagan had always been owned by the S&L and banking interests.Because that is where the money is.With Regans bought signature on the Garn-St Germain bill . Gray was instramental as a lobbiest ...working his former buddies Reagan and Ed Meese.

Ed Grey went on to become chairman of the FHLBB. A thrift executive becoming chairman of the FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK BOARD was like a priest being elected pope.He couldn't just say no.

I shall skip to the chase...Ed thought he suppose to run things honestly. He loved his new job.He was a "MR Smith goes to Washington" kind of guy.Ed was no monetary genius, but what hen lacked in experience he tried to make up for by putting long hours.

But then Gray had not been selected on the basis of his qualifications. He was supposed to be a cheerleader for the thrift industry and a tool of the administration. That point was driven home his first day on the job when he received a phone call from Treasury Secretary Don Regan.
"You're going to be a team player,I take it?"Regan asked him.
"Sure, " Gray said,leaning back in his swivel chair. "sure."
Regan hung up with Gray still holding the receiver.What was that all about? Gray wondered.

The REAGAN administration opened the flood gates of the S&L charters to entreprenurial talent.Gray saw immediately the risk inherent in the combination of ambitious entrepreneurial thrift owners, with their quest for high-yield investments, and the easily available brokered deposits to fund those investments . He knew that the FDIC under chairman William Issc was struggling with similar problem following the 1982 collapse of Penn Square Bank, your litle shopping center back there in O.C. Brokered deposits had fueled PSB's wild speculation in oil industry investments and contributed to an unhealthy atmosphere of management fraud. ( 1988 officials pleaded guilty to criminal charges in a scheme that regulators said involved risky loans and kick backs. ) But few people in Washington other than Issac, and almost no one out in the 50 states , shared Gray's assessment. So Ronald Reagans admin. went about handing out keys to varius S&L 's throughout the 50 states as political favors and said don't worry it is insured.They even busted out a few themselves to help fundRon's "contra freedom fighters" when congress refused to pony up the cash. Insiders knew that the taxpayors would end up paying the bill for generations.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:26 - ID#188244)
Karlito- Way too simple an analysis. The non-dollar price of gold rising is accompanied by a bunch of other changes like consumer confidence, Pr ( debt default ) , stability of local currency, etc. These cause a shift in the demand curve, and while the direction is uncretain, it is not unreasonable to expect that it would result in an increase in the quantity demanded for gold, even at higher local currency prices.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:31 - ID#225283)
Studio R & all

I contend that what we saw at PSB &n the S&L's is now going on in major money center banks world wide...speculative stock plays...derivative investments...bad foriegn loans that should have never been made...all of which have been encouraged and ignored by congress and the Reagan,Bush & Clinton administrations. Who will pay for this....we all will...congress is even considering further deregulations of banks and insurance companies. INSANITY!!!!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:32 - ID#344308)


we are completely saturated and have read it!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:47 - ID#344308)
private investor---

do you invest with futures? options?
tolerance for risk?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:47 - ID#24355)
Japan Winter Olympics......Gold
Anyone from the Kitco disFUNctional family going to the Olympics? It would be interesting to take some foreign currency and an ounce of Au.
and test the true purchasing power of each. ..regards from the warm nonsnow covered Canadian Rockies...

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:55 - ID#215208)
Gold vs. Currencies
First let me repost the chart I posted late last night, since I was the only one awake then. This one goes back to 1996. There should be NO question that the drop in the price of gold in US$ is directly related to the weakness of the currencies of the major gold buyers.

Next, IDT requested the breakdown of the gold market by country. I got this info off the WGC web page.

Amount ( tons ) Purchased/Year Percent of Gold Market

Total 2783 100%

Indian Rupees 713 25.6%

American Dollars 341 12.3%

Chinese Renmimbi 257 9.2%

Turkish Lira 219 7.9%

Saudi Arabian Riyal 203 7.3%

Taiwan Dollars 144 5.2%

Japanese Yen 136 4.9%

Indonesian Rupiah 127 4.6%

South Korean Won 127 4.6%

Italian Lira 87 3.1%

German Marks 82 2.9%

Thai Baht 60 2.2%

Brazilian Real 59 2.1%

French Francs 53 1.9%

Mexican New Pesos 41 1.5%

Hong Kong Dollars 40 1.4%

British Pounds 40 1.4%

Malaysian Ringgit 34 1.2%

Singapore Dollars 20 0.7%

Finally what to do about it? My first reaction when I digested the meaning of this chart was to pick up the phone and sell everything. The trend of gold buyer's currencies weakening seems to be steepening, going vertical. And gold is glued to this. This chart would suggest I should mortgage the house and short gold!

But wait. This has nothing to do with the value of gold. The supply/demand factors we have discussed are still there. Mines are closing, short positions have to be unwound, CB selling will slow, investors may truly make the flight to gold for safety. What is really needed is to hedge against further currency risk. Perhaps some one of you who is more knowledgeable in these matters could give us some advice as to how this may be done most cost effectively. I would appreciate your guidance.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 12:56 - ID#93236)
It is obvious to me that you have a handle on these banking issues. I agree with your analysis....both then and now. Your assessment brings to mind, my having to deal with S&L crooks ( and I don't use that term much ) in Texas that funded real estate and oil acquisitions with their institition's funds for projects that I was an owner/mgr.. The financings had required equity kickers, as well as, premium rates. These projects went on to pay the P&I in all instances ( so I can speak freely ) . During the life of the loans, the kickers were assigned out to other beneficiaries than the S&L. Certain officers and "some" of the owners made off with the kickers ( back-in equity positions ) and as you have already presumed, the S&L was bankrupted. I realize this happened all over Texas, etc.,but these were some of the crooks that never got caught. I shudder to think of the prevalence of this conduct and illegal activity that exists today, in various forms, domestically and worldwide.
And this crap will only serve to deepen the fiscal hole we will ultimately fall into.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:03 - ID#215208)
Gold vs. Currencies
First let me repost the chart I posted late last night, since I was the only one awake then. This one goes back to 1996. There should be NO question that the drop in the price of gold in US$ is directly related to the weakness of the currencies of the major gold buyers.

Next, IDT requested the breakdown of the gold market by country. I got this info off the WGC web page.

Amount ( tons ) Purchased/Year Percent of Gold Market

Total 2783 100%

Indian Rupees 713 25.6%

American Dollars 341 12.3%

Chinese Renmimbi 257 9.2%

Turkish Lira 219 7.9%

Saudi Arabian Riyal 203 7.3%

Taiwan Dollars 144 5.2%

Japanese Yen 136 4.9%

Indonesian Rupiah 127 4.6%

South Korean Won 127 4.6%

Italian Lira 87 3.1%

German Marks 82 2.9%

Thai Baht 60 2.2%

Brazilian Real 59 2.1%

French Francs 53 1.9%

Mexican New Pesos 41 1.5%

Hong Kong Dollars 40 1.4%

British Pounds 40 1.4%

Malaysian Ringgit 34 1.2%

Singapore Dollars 20 0.7%

Finally what to do about it? My first reaction when I digested the meaning of this chart was to pick up the phone and sell everything. The trend of gold buyer's currencies weakening seems to be steepening, going vertical. And gold is glued to this. This chart would suggest I should mortgage the house and short gold!

But wait. This has nothing to do with the value of gold. The supply/demand factors we have discussed are still there. Mines are closing, short positions have to be unwound, CB selling will slow, investors may truly make the flight to gold for safety. What is really needed is to hedge against further currency risk. Perhaps some one of you who is more knowledgeable in these matters could give us some advice as to how this may be done most cost effectively. I would appreciate your guidance.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:04 - ID#26793)
Indonesian armed forces and police prepare for riots.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:09 - ID#215208)
Sorry about the double post. I didn't do it for emphasis. I thought the first had disappeared somewhere.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:11 - ID#26793)
Asian problems creating a social timebomb

(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:12 - ID#225283)

I have a professional advisor in London that handles the bulk of my investments... I know enough about futures , options contracts , derivatives, to know that I should leave the day trades to the pro's in each specific market. I try to delegate as much as possible and leave the micromanagement to others.I am still learning ...and hope to until the day I die.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:15 - ID#26793)
Indonesian bailout numbers being revised upward

Spud Master
(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:16 - ID#273112)
Karlito99's lovely, go-go world....
Indonesia: "Meanwhile, the armed forces and the police in Indonesia are gearing up for a ``season of unrest''. With thousands of people expected to be thrown out of jobs every month and the presidential elections slated for March 1998, they do not want to take any chances on the law and order situation. A repeat of the recent clashes can trigger a fresh outflow of foreign funds and lead to a total collapse of the economy."

This is the price the non-American masses of the world pay for our nice Nike tennis shoes, cheap microwave ovens, nasal hair clippers ... sit back in your redwood hot tub, Karlito, sip some more Spumanti and pretend that the masses will never shove the "elite" under a guillotine blade to account for the "happy, new world prosperity" they brought...

(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:16 - ID#225283)

I think we can all hear the GIANT RIPPING SOUND of the social fabric in asia....

(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:18 - ID#225283)


(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:18 - ID#26793)
Sorry: This is Indonesian bailout numbers being revised upward

(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:19 - ID#335184)
Donald A- Thanks for priceless post re swiss - RSVP post toyou 00:21 ?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:24 - ID#26793)
Former white collar salarymen are now banner waving protestors

(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:27 - ID#335184)
Private investor-RSVP re post to you 64 K? - 01:37 ?
While I am part GOLDBUG, I am really just an insect at heart. Looking for your answer to 64 K ?. THANKS.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:28 - ID#93236)
That heater of yours is a hard one to catch if you're half asleep hiding behind a mask. This guy ain't no Johnny Bench.

Dave in CO
(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:39 - ID#215211)
You said that the rest of the world is getting rich with prosperity. I guess you missed the news about Asia. Yeah, those Asian Tigers are flush with prosperity. Since you're telling us how great it is in the Global Economy, you must agree with the experts/idiots who recommended diversifying into Asia right before it crashed.

I'll gladly follow the advice of tolerant1 and thousands of years of history versus your "it's different this time because of the last 20 years" CNBC idiocy.

When the children born today are working themselves into the ground to pay their 80% tax rates, they'll be cursing the greedy ******** like you.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 13:48 - ID#93236)
And if any of yous are wondering what to get ol' STUDIO.R for Christmas...may I's yellow and appropriate for all occasions....nah! not banana pudding.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 14:04 - ID#22956)
Off the usual
Studio.R - now i'm totally confused. First you say you are the Hep. Now you say you are not......what gives?? You're dueling personalities have me confused to the bejesus'sssss......

I have questioned the authenticity of this hep/coolL/studio.r relationship for some time and my conclusion is still NOT concluded.

The HepCat ( the REAL one ) is STILL a STAUNCH gold bear, I know this. He is a realist ( bordering on insanity ) but nonetheless a realist with keen insight ( or blind luck ) ....and a sharp witted ( sometimes nasty ) tongue. I know that he is not an 'elbow-rubbing-black-tie-wearing-banker-dude'.

I guess what I'm saying is that part of me misses the real Heppster....oh well.

I am reminded of a great musician Ian Hunter ( Mott the Hoople ) He says..... "You're never alone with a schizophrenic". ( great album, eh cherokee? ) ...ohmy

Who are you STUDIO.R?? And what are the hostage demands for John HepCat??!? Contact the Private Investor ( ) to come up with some cash.....he seems to have the 'wherewithall' to plunk down some cash for his safe return. stop the insanity and to get back to the gold discussion.....uhhuh...go gold.


Private Investor - you surf too?? With you thrombosis ( sp? ) . I thought you couldn't ride in an airplane last week. Thank god for fast recoveries. btw, how are the waves down in my old neck of the woods ( SD, i'm an AZTEC ) you surf San Onofre, Oceanside, surrounding areas??

(Sun Dec 14 1997 14:07 - ID#26793)
Responding to Mr. Greider is difficult. The dilemma is between what should happen and what is likely to happen. Our founding fathers constructed a Constitution that makes it difficult for Congress to act when there is a sharp, but even, division of public opinion. I am pleased with that arrangement. It is only through a crisis that enough votes can be assembled to repair the monetary system. In a sense we are in the best possible position to make the right decision. We have the experience of the stability of the gold standard for more than 100 years. We also have the experience of 60 years of a fiat system. We know from history what works and what does not. Most importantly; we have ( I hope ) the gold on hand to return to the gold standard. All that is needed now is to be placed in the box so that it is clear to the diverse interests that there is no other way out. Korea, or Japan, or some other event should produce that crisis. Only through crisis is it possible for labor, management, debtors and creditors to reach agreement on the right solution. Each of those interests must receive an equal measure of pain. Mr. Greider, who generally speaks for the left, will argue otherwise to no avail.

During the 1931-1937 period things got pretty ugly and we saved our country by swinging somewhat to the left. Things could get ugly again but history says the pendulum is about to reverse. We don't know yet who has the weak hands in the labor, management, creditor, debtor mix but I would think that the days of outrageous CEO compensation are over. We need to see which class will be blamed for the crisis: brokers? politicians? foreigners? multinational corporations? bureaucrats? bankers? unions? The Fed? Speculators? Goldbugs? Someone will be singled out.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 14:26 - ID#93236)
At the risk of divulging our whereabouts and whatabouts...I must inquire of you...Was there in existence a HepCat before the existence of Studio.R? If there truly was not, then I am he. In other words, Which came first the HepCat of the Studio.R? I MUST RELY ON YOU FOR THIS. I damn sure don't know.

There is absolutely no doubt that I am my mother...the illustrious Momma Cool Lurk is me...In other words, I gave birth to my mother. I don't see the confusion.

All and each of me are and is and was and will always be a triple-headed long-tounged flaming idiot GOLDBUG. GO GOLDBUGS!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 14:31 - ID#344308)

no way studio--r is hep-rat. the inflection AND infection
are not present.

eb------well???? options??

!; )

(Sun Dec 14 1997 14:35 - ID#93236)
@EB....Can you spell tongue, er tounge, er tounge?
We can't.

Spud Master
(Sun Dec 14 1997 14:38 - ID#273112)
More of Karlito99's smart, clever, go-go investment world... we all be doin 'real well...
Mexico: "David C. Roche, an economist at London's Independent Strategy Ltd., notes that Mexican living standards fell nearly 30% after the peso shock three years ago. That kind of drop in Asia would produce ''nothing short of a revolution,'' Roche says. Compounding the risk is that most Asian countries lack unemployment benefits. As a result, says the International Labor Organization, the sharp increase in layoffs could be catastrophic.

Pity the Mexican masses, raped to hell while Salinas & Co. live the good life; to quote Bill Clinton "Salinas feels your pain". NAFTA was needed for ONE reason: to prevent a Mexican revolution. If we cared about Mexico, we would shut down the Mexican border tight as a drum, and then wait two weeks for a popular Mexican uprising that ended with the corrupt elite-families of Mexico re-enacting the end of Emperor Maximillian ( Mexican history buffs feel free to correct my recollection ) . Where is Emile Zappata when you need him?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 14:38 - ID#215208)
Currency hedge
EB - You are a currency bug, I think. What is the best and cheapest way to establish a hedge against further weakness in the weighted basket of currencies list in my post of 13:03, relative to the US$. ( And I don't mean the obvious one .... shorting gold! ;- ) )

(Sun Dec 14 1997 14:40 - ID#255190)
Donald@09:35 withdrawls
I bet that we have more than just a few lunatic fringe ones who are concerned with our banks right now. There are those whose Christmas present to themselves is a wad of cash stashed in a secret place. In that your posts on Fed numbers indicates a little drying up of cash when the Fed itself is full bore printing indicates quite a vacuum in process, eh?

BTW why do you suppose the stores all have had "SALE" signs up since just after T-Day? People aren't buying as much as was projected. Sounds to me like the 'herd' has raised its collective head and is smelling the winds..something, they believe, is in the air and headed their direction. My only concern for those here is this ...

IF you don't want to be trampled by the masses of fear crazed people lurching left to right and right to left running at top speed THEN ...

GET cash paper money in hand, silver and gold bullion.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 14:40 - ID#33180)
the original hepcat
STUDIO_R: There was a very belligerant black ( he implied ) medical student ( he claimed ) from Durham, NC who called himself hepcat ( and a lot of other aliases ) , but was really named John, who invaded the site when he was in the manic phase of a very severe personality disorder. His writing style was quite unlike your own. He always wrote with a hard return on his right margins so the text was narrow. He picked fights and got the competitive testosterone flowing here on many occasions, disrupting the group and annoying everyone. He was correctly bearish on gold when the group wanted bullish chat. If you are not he, or the successor to one of his personalities, then you are using an old familiar, but not well-loved, alias.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Dec 14 1997 14:41 - ID#347447)
PRIVATE INVESTOR: Inasmuch as your thoughtful, archeologically and historically speculative post at 10:29 pleasantly invoked my name, I shall respond. The ancients knew far more about many things regarding the nature of what this existence is all about that can be presently dreamed of by the otherwise wonderful lads and lasses of modern physical science. The correspondences in nature between elements, planets, and such, go beyond the temporal physical universe. Their origins are in the intelligent beings that inhabit the particular sphere in question. In our case that's US, HERE. In that regard, the ancients were well aware that physical matter, and the forms and combinations in the natural physical world surrounding any thinking, intelligent being, or class of beings, is the result of the thinking of those beings. This is the basis of the laws of correspondence in nature, the laws of cause and effect and human "karma," or earned destiny, and a function of the need for JUSTICE and BALANCE in the universe. This is a tangible dream in which we are all responsible for what we think and do, and receive accordingly, even if the pattern is unclear to most of us ( usually 'cause we don't believe it ) .

Inasmuch, then, as ALL things that manifest in the PHYSICAL world have their origins in an intelligent, inner sphere of thought and will, it stands to reason as a corollary that the elements do indeed progress from the most central point within ( within the human, AND the human collectivity as represented by our home, our planet ) to outside, and from the furthest reaches of "space" down to the crust of the earth. It is on the crust of the earth, in the physical world of surfaces ( the surface being the final wall, the ultimate limitation ) that the drama of our lives is played out. It is also the crust of the earth that receives what it needs from within, and from without, to support this drama, and be its stage.

I have some corporate responsibilities with a gold and silver resources company, whose executives are this very moment trekking out to our claims in the Nevada landscape. This is in the general region of Battle Mountain, and the Carlin Trend, etc. Like oil, gold is often "where you find it," but this is pedigreed geology for potential significant finds that go on and on under the earth. Our Chief Geologist, a wonderful man well known by his first name to many Kitcoites, tells me that apparently this silver claim area is part of a "caldera" or collapsed volcanic dome, that is something like 20 miles in diameter. All that good gold and silver, and other minerals, get steamed up into the fissures of the crustal surface rock from the heat and volcanic pressure. They come from the mysterious laboratory that is the inner earth. Then, when the inner heat dies down, everything settles back onto itself, with a covering of accumulated ash. But the underlying rock is now veined, wherever there were fissures, with the solidified gold and silver, and other mineralization. In essence, these precious elements come from the inner earth. This is very metaphysical to me. I do not belive for a moment that modern science, with all the respect I can give it, knows what is really going on in the center of this planet, or, for that matter, in the furthest reaches of space. Nor is the very life we live here on the outer crust fully understood as to the why and how of it.

So your speculations and musings, and the offerings of the ancients, must always be seen as an open door to thought, far ranging and highly speculative thought, if we are to learn anything important about the human condition beyond driving a 4X4 to the Mall, or making HDTV available to all. For even bringing these ideas up, in the context you do, I salute you. For considering me within those grand thoughts, I am humbly thankful. It is a tribute to the many fine minds at this wonderful forum, that many wonderful thoughts emerge with such regularity, as do the veins and wires of gold and silver, among the rocks upon which we build our lives..

(Sun Dec 14 1997 14:42 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Five Year Chart
120 market days Chart
30 market days Chart
10 days Hourly Chart

Hourly chart shows "Possible" local bottom formation.
Actually made a Gold profit this week.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 14:55 - ID#57232)
@work - about to go home
223- re: Your 11:50 regarding DJ's graph of the price of gold in non-US currency. I'm not sure what you are referring to -- but it may be very significant. It is very important to me - and most of the Kitcoites -- I think, to know if inflationary or deflationary trends will dominate short term. A deflationary trend ( market crash, debt collapse ) could be disastrous to those "diehards" like myself who think gold/gold stocks are about to go up. We must sell our gold stock holdings before the market crash, though gold bullion would survive reasonably intact. But after the deflationary crash and subsequent reinflation ( ie 1933 in the USA ) , gold/gold stocks will do very well.

I am familiar with the curves that you are describing - namely the classic bacterial growth curve when one goes from an exponential rise period when "food" is plentiful, to the saturation plateu phase when certain key nutrients are missing. If we invert the gold price in dollars, we do get what appears to be a more and more rapidly rising curve -- is this what you mean? If you are right, gold has some dropping to do before it rises. On the other hand, I do know that gold prices can rally abruptly -- on a dime, so to speak, so I don't know what to believe. All we need is for the CB's to throw in the towel

If you think we are still in the short term "exponential" phase of the dollar/gold ratio rise, what do you think is the unrestricted nutrient "source". Melting down central banks? World financial crisis? Flight to dollar safety? If so, we should be selling gold short, not buying it -- with the possible exception of pre-1933 gold coins. But -- even these might be cheaper later if gold drops much more. I think the end is in sight for the gold bear, however.

I am very interested in your growth analogies. By the way, what do you think of Lyndon Larouche's graph of derivatives trading in the light of the bacteria analogy? The doubling time is every two years, and at last count OTC plus regulated was close to 70 trillion US annually. What is the food supply here?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 15:01 - ID#93236)
I was raised a poor white child in a small town in southern Oklahoma. I ain't got the smarts to be a med student. Nor do I have testosterone levels sufficient to cause fights. I hate the HEPCAT whoever he thought he was ( per elf's description ) .

THANKS elf...I don't think EB was going to tell me...and that hurts...cause I thought he and me...well you know...

(Sun Dec 14 1997 15:02 - ID#26669)
Dr. Phillips AI forcasts still short this weekend for PM funds Come to think of it he's short all the way down the list!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 15:04 - ID#432107)
Tuesday's Fed meeting
The general concensus for this Tuesday's Fed meeting seems to be that interest rates will remain unchanged. With the ever climbing US$, lack of inflation, threat of imported deflation, I have this feeling that rates will actually drop a possible 25 basis points this Tuesday. Are there any thoughts out there regarding this subject.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 15:16 - ID#26669)
JTF Too many questions...that's why I raised the issue. I'm over my head here
JTF: I once shared an apartment with an economist when I was in graduate school, and he taught me enough to see the questions, but not the answers. I suspect that what we're getting is a speculative bubble with $US being the tulips, getting 'way overpriced in terms of Lots of other things. But since we use $Us every day I suspect we're getting a bubble on top of the bubble in price of things which are valued only in dollars, kind of like what happened when the Japanese were in their big inflation and the price of real estate there soared.

Maybe the time is ripe to start looking in the university webpages for economics chat groups. I don't know. I'm confused and nobody I've talked to has a clear picture either.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 15:25 - ID#215208)
223, JTF - 223, you are right, the chart should be inverted. In fact the first time I prepared the chart, I was using the inverse of the world currencies, which was starting to rise exponentially. The reason I changed it was so show the dramatic overlay of the price of gold in US$ to the value of the currency of the average buyer.

But it is quite clear that it is the strength of the US$ that is hurting us gold bugs. Isn't it a supreme irony that we are as a group much more aware of the turmoil in the Asian market and the world market in general than the average investor, and that in trying to protect ourselves from the coming crisis by investing in gold, we have unknowingly, but unargueably exposed ourselves to the full impact and fury of the Asian meltdown.

Look closely at the currency/gold chart and ask yourself a few questions. Do you believe that the worst is over in Asia and we should start to see a recovery? Everything I read says to me that we are just beginning to understand the magnitude of the problem. It seems the money the IMF is poised to throw at the problem will be sucked into the vortex and disappear. Thus it seems to me there is a very real possiblility that the US$ will continue getting stronger in the near term, perhaps at an even more accelerated rate.

Now that the cause/effect relationship is known, it is incombant on all of us to protect ourselves with some kind of a currency hedge. To not do so would be supremely foolish. Further exposure to this risk is unnecessary.

I am looking for guidance from this august group as to how this may be done most effectively. I plan to do it without delay! The only alternative is to hedge with a gold short, or to close out all long investments in gold and probably platinum. I prefer not to do this.

Time is of the essence!!!! Look at the slope of that curve!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 15:56 - ID#333131)
Mike Sheller, Your 14:41. Thank you for your beautiful and thought provoking piece.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:15 - ID#22956)
DJ and the great currency question.........
Contrary to what some may think I am NO expert in currency trading ( I'm no commod. expert either ) I trade currencies on a TA ( mostly ) and some Fundamental basis. I am into pattern recognition and I go for it based on that only....most of the time ;- ) . I have been interested in currencies because they are VERY volatile and option ( futures ) traders LOVE volatility....and I have made a great deal of money from them ( relatively speaking, of course ) . I have never purported to be an 'economist' or a person with even the slightest amount of understanding of what makes these World economies tick....and I don't much care either ( but lets talk sports, THIS is what matters in the world ;- ) ) I have other fish to fry, so to speak.

Futures option trading ( for me ) is for short term speculation ( making a quick buck ) . My hedge is long term IRA's and KEOGH's. I rarely hedge one commodity against another. It gets too confusing to me. My philosophy is to keep it as simple as possible and to not look too far ahead ( also confusing ) . I cannot answer your question regarding the hedge....hell, I can barely understand your recent charts on gold/currencies. I gotta admit though, I have a few of your 'channel' trend charts pinned to my corkboard. They are quite helpful as I follow trends mostly. ( but now that i think of it I try to pick tops and bottoms and trend reversals all the time ) .....hmmmm.

Wrapping this up I must say that my style is my own and it is hard to explain. I wish you could live in my shoes and I in yours ( and others here ) for a while. I would be a MUCH more powerful trader. Thanks dude for going the extra mile for us.

oh yeah.......the US$ has more strength left imo, I just hope it 'shares' some of it with the Mark.....the US$ is a juggernaut right now and I would NOT step in it's way. Based on our ( US ) economy it will outpace ANY currency right now and for everyone looking to short the had better sleep with one eye open. It has a great deal of room to the top. 30yr historical 50% on the index is 122 and the 10yr is 92. I will repeat. There is PLENTY of room higher. The 30yr high was set in 84 at 164 or so ( btw, I was too interested in 'bagging Betties' in 84 to know why that was. Can anyone answer this? And I know it wasn't that puppet Prez we had ) Looking back at the last two years if you had traded long-the-Buck you would have been handsomely rewarded.....oh my....the flight to quality has been OBVIOUS!!!!!!!! ( what are you saying of the UStoilet paper $ now KIWI?? ) the world wants to hold MY dollar ( for now ) .....

now......all you fellow



cherokee......I have not forgotten....

studio.R - you ARE the Hep....I am just not sure what happened...say something HEP ME MONEY??!? I still like you ( I just like your 'other' personality better..... ) . Do not tow the are you and don't be are the cat the only cat, now cut the crap....

(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:23 - ID#238422)

Thanks for your post,

JTF, I absolutely agree with you that the military R&D is a MUST to do thing if country wants to be or wants to continue to be the world leader. I was really talking about short-term necessity to do it - sounds like it would be overkill, because the U.S. already has an overwhelming advantage in nuclear weapons and its QUANTITY.
So my "25 years" remark was some kind of relative estimate in relation
to quantity of nuclear weapons. LEADER of the WORLD must have a lot of
nuclear warheads and means of their delivery in order to position
this stuff ALL OVER THE WORLD, if urgent need to strike ANYBODY ANYWHERE
arises. The U.S. has this capability for now, but Russia lost a big part of this capability after the collapse of the U.S.S.R.

This is a VERY BIG PICTURE of gold/nukes relationship, and it completely eliminates any possibilty that CHINA or MIDDLE EAST oil producing countries can grab WORLD control by just stockpiling a lot of GOLD.

It will NEVER work.

By the way, Gulf War is a perfect example, who got the POWER.

If we look at the problem of terrorism - I would say you are
more than right, the only exception that Russia WILL NEVER SHARE
its nukes with anybody for the same reason as USA will never share..
Otherwise, and unfortunately, some bad guys with a real big money
may in fact bribe some Russian greedy general and get a couple of small-size tactical nuclear devices for use against the U.S.

The really bad thing about it is that nothing can be done about it,
unless Russia transforms back to dictatorship, and the U.S. seals its
borders in a big way. This is highly unlikely to happen in a near term.

You are also right that U.S.military is not capable of dealing with
small scale military/terrorist problems. I watched this paradox many times - big war is no problem, small war is a complete disaster, looks
like a law of nature. The only way out, I guess, is to have good little
friends all over the world, who can deal with these small but nasty
little wars and stand-alone hostile groups.

I do not know any way of dealing with terrorists but to use the
principle - "Good terrorist is a dead terrorist". Captured terrosists
should never be allowed to go to prison, in fact they should not be captured at all. I believe we've seen a good example of how it should be done - Japanese Embassy story in one of South American countries, I recall. Unfortunately, it can be only "blood-for-blood" relationship
for now.

Our A.G. - yes, we are not sure he can easily fix this gold/US$ stuff at
his will without causing a little political storm: "Oh my God!!! We got
inflation AGAIN!!!" But, as I put it in my post to DaveinCO, he may
ALLOW others to do it, he may just "secretly" trigger some heavy-duty
market-type shortcovering which everybody expects, he may just know
that EURO is going to be backed by gold, and it will do the trick..

EURO - With consideration given to the fact that it should cover the
needs of Europe - United States of Europe, and STATES are not equal at all, I would expect this EURO to be a complete failure, UNLESS EURO IS
BACKED UP BY GOLD, may be 15-20% backing will be enough for stability.

( May be A.G. knows about it, or it's all my wishful thinking? )

I am not really sure, but I am trying to imagine what I would do, and
this scenario kind of seems logical to me...

I'll tell you what, JTF - I am not sure at all, that I am right,
but I see some REAL evidence, which "should be admitted" - and one
of the strongest pieces of this evidence - Japanese "we may sell U.S. Treasuries and buy gold" trick, Max Smart would say. It fits into
scenario just perfectly. Another evidence - "gold will not be back
until Asian crisis is over..." - Yup, until US markets and US paper
are SAFE..

You can find other evidence, if you look around..

Mr. Mick
(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:23 - ID#345321)
Donald-A - you're A#1, tolerant1 - you're too funny!!!
Donald, echoeing thanks from others, it cannot be overstated how valuable your posts are. Thanks a million. It saves us a lot of running around.
Tolerant - you missed your calling as a writer of political satire. Some of your posts and comments are really gems. Who was it that said "George Wills dope-slapping Sam Donaldson"? That's too much!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:25 - ID#223146)
Gold Bottoms
I have recently come across statistics that indicate that most gold bottoms occur in December. With all the reading I do I can't remember the source. Can any one confirm this?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:30 - ID#26793)
On the subject of pre-Christmas sales; I saw a reference in Barron's about the conumdrum of personal income being up and state sales tax collections being down.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:34 - ID#26793)
conumdrum = conundrum in Donald Speak

(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:40 - ID#38970)
DJ's gold currency chart
DJ - A possible explanation. The first thing that must be made clear is that the present financial turmoil is a DIRECT consequence of the gold price being artificially suppressed. With the run up to European monetary union European participants were faced with a dilemma. The market was selling their currencies showing a lack of faith. This was politically unpalatable and something had to be done. One option would have been to raise interest rates and attract foreign capital. The problem was that participants had agreed to meet certain austerity targets, in particular a 3% GDP growth rate. Countries not meeting this would not be allowed to participate. Raising interest rates would have meant not meeting these targets as businesses and citizens tighten their belts to service their debt.

The option chosen was to drive down the gold price, thus closing the door on gold as a reserve asset and forcing investors to buy currencies. The spill-over into bond and stock markets was inevitable. Investors can not convert their gold to bonds or stocks but they can their chosen currency. The effect of this financial engineering was to bolster the European currencies and allow growth targets to be achieved. However
many prudent investors were still not comfortable with EMU prospects ( largely due to structural differences between European economies ) and preferred dollars and British pounds ( Britain will not join EMU initially ) . The spill-over of gold money into the dollar and consequently stocks and bonds is largely responsible for the bull market and the US bubble.

The gold market is not big however and much of the rush to dollars is more an indirect consequence of the gold price being driven lower. The best way I can explain this is to go back to the axiom "Good money drives out bad". I think it was Adam Smith who coined this. The principle is simple: if there are competing monetary bases one will always triumph at the expense of others. A well understood example is how a dual silver and gold monetary system did not work; eventually gold emerge as the favoured currency. This makes sense as it is far more practical if everyone uses the same currency.

The extension of the monetary system was to print paper representing gold. Although each country had a different fiat currency the triumphant currency ( gold ) was still seen as the base of all of them - swapping dollars for pounds was actually just swapping US gold for British gold. Now if we look at the tirade of governments to convince investors that gold is no longer necessary ( barbarous relic etc. ) and then drive down the price through announcing sales and leasing gold to be sold into the market, the talk takes on reality and the base of the system loses its value. What is left is a paper system where a currency represents only the confidence that investors have in a country's future. All currencies are no longer deemed to mean the same thing, i.e.a claim on gold. This is when the "good money, bad money" principle resurfaces. Investors start to sell the bad stuff and run to the safe currencies. If this scenario continued the dollar would probably emerge triumphant, with other currencies worthless. The trouble is by this stage the world economy would be ruined. This process has only just started and the consequences are plain to see. A true single world currency, not backed by gold, could only work if it were independent of any country.

The question now is how far this government and central bank folly will be allowed to go? At some stage there has to be a dislocation of the trend from destabilising ( present ) to a stabilising one. I believe we are at that point about now. The fact that the gold price is now below the production cost and below the valuation level of many central banks is the key. Central bankers must be well aware of the predicament and gold is their only hope of regaining stability. A highly critical event was the press statement on Friday by Swiss central bank stating that they stand by the role of gold in the international monetary system. It will soon become a case of "every CB for itself". The alternative is a strong dollar and perhaps a few European currencies but the risk is always that your currency will become "bad" money.

The dilemma facing governments though is the inflationary process a gold price increase will bring about and governments hate inflation as it makes their spending so much more expensive to finance as bond yields rise. The best thing they could do perhaps is to somehow raise the gold price overnight and stabilise it there. With the free market system however they might look to a controlled increase to stabilise currencies. In this scenario the will loose to market forces and the inflation fears. Whatever the do they will be wrong as they have been for so many years about gold. Now they and the taxpayers must pay the price for the tirade against gold.

Just as there is an almost perfect inverse correlation between the DOW and the gold price over the last two years, so there should be when the gold price breaks upwards. The trigger for a stockmarket crash is most likely to be a sharp break upwards in the gold price.

When a process like this could happen in the space of a few hours I maintain that gold is still the safest place. It is becoming clear that central banks will not allow the gold price to go any lower.

Please remember that what I have written above is my opinion and certainly not gospel. Thanks for the chart DJ - it is good qualitative stuff like that that gets us gold-bugs thinking.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:44 - ID#189273)
Waiting for "death of gold"
Back in Sept. '81 - correct me if I'm off by a couple of months, Business Week ran a cover headline, "the death of equities". It was one of those banner headlines that marked the very bottom of the market. Those with the wherewithall to act on it, and the guts, have done very well indeed. Doug Casey was one who came out with a book then, putting a buy on both equities and bonds. Two good calls. Gold is receiving similar press now, especially on CNBC. It is very appealing at these levels. If it goes down to a hundred usd, that just tells us that is how much a well-tailored man's suit will cost. An ounce of gold has bought that right along.

So much talk about the demonitization of gold. Remember John Law in the 1800's. This ain't the first time. Refer to Macay's "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds". No doubt about it, if more people had insisted upon a gold standard right along, we wouldn't be where we are headed now, but there is no getting off this speeding train. Just position your portfolio as defensively as possible. Get grounded. Sure, goldbugs feel pain today. Gold is acting as a leading indicator of what's to come when the ripple effect from the Asian meltdown translates into layoffs, reductions of capital expenditures, etc. from those companies most exposed to those markets. I, for one, am glad of the warning. Don't shoot the messenger!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:45 - ID#238422)
@John Disney
John, thanks for your post on nukes.
You right 100%, that is how political
"short covering" works...
Will be back with my ANOTHER
beer can damage report later.
Must now go to the steam room
to fix 1/2 of my health, then
3 shots of vodka to fix another
half of my health, then clean
guns, then enjoy writting post to you...

(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:46 - ID#93236)
To specify the nature of my lunacy...please surf to

Go to c.d.' "Los Locos"....I'm the nut in the lower left with the J.Smith axe. This site is also one one of my personifications.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:51 - ID#174103)
Gold and the US Dollar
As a relative newcomer to the financial scene here, feel free to blast this argument away. But in a deflationary period, isn't there a blow-off in paper assets, like equities, etc? All the new money floating around gets pumped into the financial markets, which includes T-bills, since there isn't anywehre else for it to go. In this situation, if folks grab dollars belieiving what's written on them, wouldn't the perceived value of the dollar increase with respect to real assets such as gold? Of course, as soon as the dollar gets re-evaluated by the market on the basis of the credits ( or debits, in this case ) the value would plunge, and hard assets prices should rise. If this is the case, the period of time between when the market finally figures out that the dollar is just an overvalued piece of paper with a promise to pay and the time when everyone appears to be fleeing to the relative safety of the US currency would be the optimal time to stock up on PM's.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:53 - ID#335184)
P.I.'s brilliant subtext draws seliloque ( SP.??? ) worthy of HAMLET: "There are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Me thinks Sheller & Carl protest too much!!! Would not a rose smell as sweet,whether it be metaphysical or "tangible dream"?
Truth is beauty, however we may grasp it. EYE, there's the rub.Truth is and we percieve.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:57 - ID#26793)
China and Malaysia say IMF help not working. China refuses to discuss devaluation

(Sun Dec 14 1997 16:57 - ID#57232)
I like the way you think. I would add only one thing to your 16:23 post.

The Euro will fail, and then a gold-backed currency may emerge. So far there is no evidence that the Euro will be any better than the US dollar -- in fact I think as you it will be much worse -- mainly based on G Soros criticisms -- that little thought has been put into the fact that inflation and interest rates will differ from country to country. Gold in central banks will not do it -- there must be the public mindset for the find of fiscal austerity that would encourage the "powers that be" to use true gold standard -- even an electronic one, firmly linked to gold. The gold Pheonix, I'm afraid will have to rise out of the ashes -- and I don't think the fires in SE Asia are big enough to do it. It may require trouble with the dollar, the euro and the trauma of debt deflation on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

I agree with you that Gold alone will not make China a true world power, but it is evident that their economic power is already very significant. All they have to do is focus their economic machinery on military things as well. This will take time. They are a patient, persistent race. We will benefit from trading with them -- as they have much to gain from us and vice versa. There is a cultural link of some kind that transcends ideology. But we still must be cautious not to lose key military secrets which I think has happened recently with the Commerce leak.

We Americans must take care and fix our financial ( and other ) problems or we will eventually follow Greece, Rome, the UK. etc, into the history books.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 17:02 - ID#22956)
Great post Neil!! and thanks DJ......
That was right on the money. You have said many things that I think but could never get on paper. Well thought out, consise, and delivered so well. Thanks. One-up Mate!!

DJ - we are on a common wavelength. My post was done ( and not posted ) while you had already done so ( there are three football games on and my attention was pulled both ways ) . My thoughts coincide with what you and Neil so graciously said. And as far as my statement regarding our ( US ) strong was said with the understanding that 'ours' is better then 'theirs' ( take your pick ) right now.



Dave in CO
(Sun Dec 14 1997 17:21 - ID#215211)
@Donald_A - Alan Keyes now Maxine Waters
Congresswoman Maxine Waters requests preliminary investigation into Ron Brown's death:

(Sun Dec 14 1997 17:29 - ID#26793)
William Jennings Bryan "Cross of Gold" speech

(Sun Dec 14 1997 17:31 - ID#215208)
Keeping priorities straight
EB - Thanks for your response, though I still don't have the advice I am seeking. Regarding the chart, it is not too hard to understand. Though I won't claim to understand all the economic factors behind it, the fact that the US$ gold price curve overlays the weighted currency curve of world buyers so closely cannot be disputed. If you are looking for a pattern, here is one. Since the trend in the US$ seems clear, the only option is either to clear out of gold ( and probably platinum ) until the US$ cools off, or to hedge against further strength of the dollar. Going long on the dollar directly won't do it, because we are specifically interested in hedging against the currecy of gold buyers, in the proper ratio. This is the challenge, and I'm hoping someone here on Kitco can steer me to a simple solution. Mind you, I still need to go back to my portfolio, and try to figure out how much of a hedge I need. The gold stocks, particularly the RSA stocks move at a high multiple of movement in the price of gold. This makes the calculation trickier.

Do you know any firms that specialize in currency that I could approach?

Neil - As my chart shows, the price of gold in the currency of the average buyer is not down. It has been quite constant +/- 7% for the last 2 years. It may well be true that selling and leasing by the CB's has provided the added "supply" needed to meet the growing demand, thus ensuring that a gold shortage does not cause pressure on the price of gold. Whether this was done as part of a global conspiracy or whether it is simply an incidental result of profit-motivated activities, in that the holders of gold want to get some return and the leasors wanted to take advantage of the spread between gold lease rates and treasury rates, I don't know or particularly care. At the moment, I just want to stop the bleeding, and I would prefer to do this via currency hedging if I can, rather than closing out all my gold long positions. After this is done I will be happy to participate in the global economic debate.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 17:33 - ID#41229)
Investment strategy
Now that there seems to be some sort of agreement that gold has reached bottom and if it hasn't it is a good entry point. What % would be placed risk capital place in mining stocks, in call options, and physicals. A break down that some are using would be appreciated.

I currently have: 5% in physical ( currently all silver waiting for gold to bottom. )

10% in options

60% mining stock

25% I'm holding in cash awaiting a stragey that makes since to me.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:07 - ID#261118)
@ Studio
What Southern Oklahoma town? Iwas raised around Fox and Healdton. A trip to Ardmore was an event; I'd seen Indians ( some of them realitives ) all my life but I'd never seen a black man until I was six, that's rural.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:07 - ID#255190)
RE: hedging currencies and gold etc
In the case where we have an exponential knee developing in the US$ vs gold it suggests to me that any 'break' the other direction would be fast and steep. So I would tend to look for a 'buy' point which would correspond to the midway between the perceived top and possible bottom. Gold bought on the way down past this point would be less and less risky as the top in US$ valuation was reached. At the time of the fall your cost averaged gold purchases would be pretty profitable even though you didn't necessarily hit it dead on at the peak.

It does not surprise me that the world currency average and the US$ average vs gold are very close. My understanding is that the US$ is used to price both gold and oil then the price in US$ is converted to the specific currency you would buy these in.

It IS interesting that the curve is typically exponential, which signifies an unsustainable activity as well as the behaviour of any correction which would ensue. This gives me some comfort in having made my gold buys a few months ago rather than trying to hold out for an absolute bottom; the price of gold will rocket as the US$ plunges in realtionship to it and very possibly oil, silver and other such things.

We are at or near the production price where mine closures and layoffs are being planned. Any further drop in the price of gold would, to my thinking, only be loading the rocket with MUCH more fuel, and the resulting correction that much more explosive. This is possibly what ANOTHER is thinking will precipitate the public gold for oil offer which is what he calls the "one time revaluation of gold". Alas, we may be amazed by the change in our fortunes only to be over-awed by the devastation it would produce.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:12 - ID#26793)
I am looking at the U.S. dollar chart in Barron's, tomorrow issue, page MW106. I don't think you have a clear trend in the dollar to the upside. The trend high was in late July at 101. Since then there have been 3 attempts at a rally, each failed. The last failure was at 98.5 in the first week of this month. Barron's uses something called the Federal Reserve Dollar Index for the chart. I am not familiar with how that is compiled. The December, 1996, figure is 88.5. The current reading is 98.5

While I tend to agree with you that gold will work lower if the dollar continues to rise I feel that more thought should be given to what events could hurt the dollar. Some possibilities are: stocks drop, tax revenues decline, Congress votes to fund the IMF, the Fed continues to print, a major U.S. bank appears to require a bailout etc.

There appear to be more future events favoring an rise in gold than there are events favoring a rise in the dollar.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:13 - ID#210114)
Clinton, Rubin and Waigel
Have just read the Yahoo article suggested by Bill Buckler about the meeting between Clinton, Rubin and Waigel scheduled for 16 December ( I think ) .

Anyone have any thoughts about its outcome? I presume a deal will be done to further bail out our sickly Asian friends.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:20 - ID#344308)

just finished with the s&p charts. damned incredible!
strap the chillins -n- critters down emma, a big blow
is on the way.

there is fixing to be a major break from
the current trend. this according to technics
helps to bolster my prediction of another
huge sell-off before years end.

forget the january effect this year or next. there is
a new show in town with all new players with old tricks,
not seen in 50+ years.

17 days or was only 500pts last time!

cherokee!; ) ------friend-of-the-limb---------

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:22 - ID#22956)
Donald...........seeing the future....ohmy...
If you have tomorrows issue of Barrons today can you get a hold of Tuesdays paper for me on Monday? It could help my portfolio greatly ;-^ ) . find an angle


(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:22 - ID#390214)
(To All Re: Emergency meeting of Dec. 16(Clinton,Greenspan,Rubin,IMF,Weigel)
Are the Japanese invited, being the 2nd biggest economy in the world?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:23 - ID#390214)
(To All Re: Emergency meeting of Dec. 16(Clinton,Greenspan,Rubin,IMF,Weigel)
Are the Japanese invited, being the 2nd biggest economy in the world?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:29 - ID#390214)
(Is a split developing between Asia & the rest of the world?)
A statement released in Bonn said that Waigel would meet with U.S. President Bill Clinton, Michel Camdessus, head of the

International Monetary Fund, U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

``The situation on the international financial markets will stand at the centre of the political talks, especially in Asia following the

IMF programmes with ( South ) Korea, Indonesia and Thailand,'' it said.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:30 - ID#427357)
cherokee__A: By chance are you a Sooner? If so, what's the last name of the Sooner's most famous "Bud?"

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:30 - ID#26793)

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:31 - ID#22956)
Light Reading.....for XAUers
someone posted this a while back and I often check in for an update. For the Elliot WaveHeads....



(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:31 - ID#335184)
Comment on EURO is a BIG 10-4, but please remeber inflation is the friend of debtors and Uncle SAM is the biggest!!! He says, "INFLATION", GO AHEAD AND MAKE MY DAY." Also don't forget BIG UNCLE'S ugly best friend, Mr. Bracket Creep.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:36 - ID#26793)
@EB missing part

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:41 - ID#333131)
Donald, The $ peaked against the Dmark in early Aug. It just triple topped at a lower level ( about 1.79 ) and looks like it wants to slide
further. I suspect that this contributes to the graph you're looking at. I've been trying to figure why the Dmark appears to be the premier currency right now. Their interest rate moves don't seem like enough to justify it to me. I thought the prospect of a EU currency were supposed to be bad for the Dmark. Maybe it's just an early sign that the EU is in more trouble than we know. Any thoughts?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:48 - ID#343259)
lurker joins in
Having been lurking for months and I thought I'd join in, nothing
profound to impart at this time, sorry.
I have been in the gold exploration business for 18 years and
an avid goldbug ( unrepentant ) for even longer.
Went almost totally into cash several months back having my
clock scrubbed in Canadian juniors but I had made hay whilst the
sun shone so I can't snivel. I just bought barrick calls wednesday
and figure we are at a turning point for gold based upon a few

10% US money supply increase over the last 3 months, Greenspan
would never allow this under anything but crisis conditions, hugh
inflationary implications.

Clinton will be under intensifying legal pressures, markets hate any
sort of uncertainty, the pump has been primed for years.

1% daily increase in Japanese money supply.

SKorea currency lost 40% last week, 70% for the year, raw material
supplies cut off due to currency risk/no credit.

Silver - gold price divergence may mean flight to quality buying, with
a prise rise in silver as it is not a CB manipulated commodity ( ? ) .
Perhaps gold would be responding likewise without CB quasi-sales.

Swiss timing of making their gold more available for markets through
sales/lease. For generations the Swiss covet gold then wake up one
day and decide to liquidate into a weak market? humbug.

You get the same info I get so we all know the s#$%/fan interface is
approaching rapidly, why this all will be good for the gold price,
eventually, is more a human instinctive reaction than analysis of
events. With CB manipulation of currencies and gold, fundamental
analytical efforts seem impossible anyway, we have no access to enough
real data.
I would bet that most of you are frustrated at the almost total lack
of interest your family and friends have to any of these global events as they have been unfolding, I am probably posting this note more out of this frustration than anything else.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:49 - ID#26793)
Some of the DMark strength is due to hedges and straddles against the new Euro using some of the weaker pre-Euro currencies. Read that somewhere.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:51 - ID#22956)
Calling on Sydney!!
Did you guys forget that trading has started down there?? All I see is a dead patient ( flat line ) . Can you step on it?.....I have a bet to win. w/w

readdonaldsposthtefirsttimeandwillconsiderhisoffer;-^ )

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:52 - ID#26793)
Is the answer Bud Weiser?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:55 - ID#427357)
...but you are close
Donald__A ( @Vronsky ) Is the answer Bud Weiser? Naaaah, but you are close.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:57 - ID#284255)
ISP back up and running after 4 days down
Swing chart updated.
M/a crossed over - sell signal.

The bulls are mooing,
And the bears are growling.
This week should show the direction.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 18:59 - ID#255190)
More ruminations re: ANOTHER's recent posts
Last one on this topic until more ANOTHER posts.

I'm not sure that it would be necessary to have that large a cabul in on the "offer" of oil for gold. Given the rather small market in gold in comparison to oil/currencies it would only take one or two well endowed oil states to pull this off. Here's why.

Let's say the Saudi's have been accumulating gold through the back door ( approx 5,000 tonnes ) . They sell say 20 Mln Bbl oil a day. Close enough. At one ounce of gold per thousand Bbl oil that's 20,000 ounces of physical gold..per day. That's alot of physical gold ( Comex eligible gold for 8 days? ) .

The first few moments after the Saudi's proposal to trade oil for gold at a very steep discount of 1000 Bbl/oz ( approx 1.5% of current US$ price ) there would be roars of laughter. One fast thinker after anther would think

"Hey. I buy some gold at $300/oz, trade for oil to receive 1 Mln Bbl, then sell the 1 Mln Bbl for US$ 10 Mln. Net profit is $10,000,000-$300,000=$9,700,000. Easy money." .

Everyone at once turns to the gold market to buy, which promptly shuts down. Now no one is laughing. Because everyone realizes that gold is now worth at least $10,000 per ounce and no one is prepared for that revaluation.

Whoever has gold now has 66.67 times the purchasing power in that stock pile. What appeared to be a stupid offer has now become a complete revaluation of all gold stockpiles vs all currencies.

Who has the gold? The Saudi's had 5 Bln ounces remember ( 5,000 tonnes = 5 Bln ounces ) ? That's now "worth" $50 TRILLION dollars. ( $1x10^4 ) x ( 5X10^9ounces ) =US$5x10^13. Not a bad little pile.

Saudi Arabia $50 TRILLION, 5 Bln ounces.

Germany $29 TRILLION, 2.9 Billion ounces.

France a very similar range to Germany ( can't remember the tonnage there ) .

USA $2.6 TRILLION, 260 Mln ounces.

Is this plausible??? How is it possible by making one little change in oil dealings could this ever happen? It is simply the very intelligent use of the scarcity of gold and the necessity of oil. It is the desire of one party, who is big enough to swamp the gold market, to make it the prefered vehicle for buying oil. In fact if not one ounce of gold is ever transacted for oil, but the offer is continued intact, then gold will be revalued simply by the possibility of trading. Those who are in a bad way in their currency situation can always get oil with their gold.

What would the impact of this revaluation of gold and currencies do? It would instantly shift economic and financial power into the hands of those who own large amounts of gold: CB's, Saudi's, Roths et al. It would mean that gold/oil would be THE CENTRAL POINTS OF ECONOMIC REFERENCE. It would mean that currencies would be devalued by a factor of 1000 in relationship to the new standard of gold ( as a proxy for oil wealth ) .

It would upset an aweful lot of people. There would be no TARGET to shoot at or take over, however, because all other oil producers would immediately jump on this band wagon. Its a simple matter of what an interested party is willing to receive for their goods.

Venezuala, with gold and oil reserves and production capacity, would be one of the wealthiest nations on earth. The world would be turned upside down geopolitically, wouldn't it. Literally

"..the 'havenot's of the world will become the 'have's.."

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:00 - ID#22956)
To all who think a bottom is in......
Might I give a SMALL amount of advice or help or whatever it is w/o sounding too patronizing or condescending:

Wait until we have some consolidation. Wait till there are at least a few rallies UP instead of a CONSTANT barrage of death blows. Wait till the US$ takes a bath. Wait till next year.....just wait.....

It will set new lows..........period........of course in my humble opinion and the opinions of millions of gold bears........the move up will leave plenty of time to buy on the dips. If it moves fifty bucks in one day, then wait till the bears have a shot and then buy at the dip. You will have plenty of time......PLENTY. an xmas bash


(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:02 - ID#335184)
Phenomenon described is surly correct, but probably merely additive to general world preference ( read mania ) for stocks. BUBBLE preceded blow down in AU price!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:05 - ID#35767)
The DMark may be the premier currency and later the Euro because as this crisis spreads it is the DOLLAR BASED SYSTEM which will really becoming under attack. Through Brady Bonds Nafta etcet the US govt guarantees more than any other govt ( all of Latin America in fact through Brady Bonds ) .This is probably just part of the duty of the World reserve currency. Nevertheless in a world wide economic downturn it is the US which would default especially since most citizens dont know or understand the guarantees that have been made and that goes for most politicians also. Other non reserve currency govts dont have the guarantees which up til now have never had to be met. My Congressman Tom Davis is a good guy that is VERY responsive to his constituents but I called his office re Brady bonds and international trade issues and their understanding of whats going on was at the CNBC watcher level.

Lets face with Labor/Gephardt and the Pat Buchanan Republicans they couldnt get Fast Tract with support of Gingrich and Lott. How popular, in an election year will it be to hand over billions to the IMF. I think not. It will be interesting on how Newt handles this since he is right there with Bill when it comes to bailout large financial institutions for their bad investments ala Mexico. Even if your a true conservative you have to admit on this one it looks like the Labor- Gephardt-Dems and the PAT Republicans are on the side of the American People and support making Wall St face Market discipline and eat their long overdue vegetables.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:09 - ID#31868)
Dearest Karlito,
So now it is clear that you know jack as your comments most certainly could not further clarify you're being jack's ass. Your torment of being tied by your bridle to the post or stake of socialism is readily seen, and once understood, yours is not a happy marriage. Although I met Auntie Em I never had the privilege of tasting one of her now famous bitters. Perchance you could delicately wrap one up and send one to me via the post, goodness, I did not wish to remind you of that horrid four by four, but then again your conversation is constantly in the dirt as are your hooves. And of course she only accepts real money, gold and silver of which you have neither. Or do you, you philosophical charlatan.

You speak of my satisfaction at poking fun at others and yet single yourself out. A most fetid affair you suggest. Yet I assure you I have no love for you or your thoughts or any that spout them like a kettle frothing on the hot flame of reality.

A putrefied spleen would not, my dear jack's ass spew anything. The word is bile I have read, but that is the color of your thoughts, and your philosophy as is the worth of your conversation and paper money, all are in the red.

Your account is pitiful, overdrawn, and overdone. You sir are a socialist, feed at the troth of stupidity with your friends Printin Clintin, Enviro-Whore Gore, Robbing Rubin and Slummer Summer's a puppet's puppet.

That would make you the dummies dummy. Enjoy.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:10 - ID#188244)
Larry Summers
The one thing the Karlito is right about is Larry Summers. He was always considered one of the brightest around the MIT/Harvard economics scene. I bring it up because it is important to understand the players. Either they crave the power of their position and don't want to lose it, or they are scared *&^%less and are trying to forestall the inevitable, fearing the unknown more than the known. But they ( Greenspan, Summers, Stan Fischer at the IMF ) are not stupid.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:10 - ID#24095)
@overnight markets
March gold at 285...S&P slipping as we speak

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:14 - ID#401460)
Carl (US$)
Could it be that the US$ is weakening? Could it be that they have printed one to many US$? Could it be that the DMark is becoming the safe haven? Could it be that the US will have to raise interest rates eventually to compete with the German interest rates. I think maybe so - how is that for a commitment?

By the way, has anyone found a good suite by Italian, Hong Kong, Canadian. etc. tailors, for $282 lately?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:21 - ID#288100)
Japan down 253.45 1.6% Indonesia down 30 7.64%
Japan rate of drop is rapid at this time.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:22 - ID#41229)
CoolJing @ Frustrations
I too have been trying to bring family and friends to recognize that everything is not coming up roses. I'm currently dismissed as a dooms dayer. It is unfortunate, and hopefully we due not witness a finicial event that appears to be looming. Hopefully the will see the signs before it is too late.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:22 - ID#24095)
@markets update
S&P Futures falling very fast...if trend continues could portend drastic down day on Wall Street...March gold holding own...284.9 bid...285.9 asked.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:26 - ID#35767)
United Soviet States of America
The job they have done of convincing everyone how wonderful everything is is right up there with the wonderful economic situation depicted by the Soviet press during the 70s and 80s. I think their press now may be better than ours. But then going through repression in some way probably results in greater respect for the truth. You know what Goebbels referred to Germany as in the 1930s "the land of the smile"! History is replete with examples where they try to convince the populace aggressively and constantly how great everything is. When this is done normally the system is rotten to the core and the truth eons from what is propagated. The happy talk now is almost starting to become comical. Though it was that way in Eastern Europe and Russia in 1989 and Germany by 1944..

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:26 - ID#35767)
United Soviet States of America
The job they have done of convincing everyone how wonderful everything is is right up there with the wonderful economic situation depicted by the Soviet press during the 70s and 80s. I think their press now may be better than ours. But then going through repression in some way probably results in greater respect for the truth. You know what Goebbels referred to Germany as in the 1930s "the land of the smile"! History is replete with examples where they try to convince the populace aggressively and constantly how great everything is. When this is done normally the system is rotten to the core and the truth eons from what is propagated. The happy talk now is almost starting to become comical. Though it was that way in Eastern Europe and Russia in 1989 and Germany by 1944..

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:27 - ID#93232)
@badger HOWDY FROM A S.O.B....southern oklahoma boy!
I grew up in Sulphur...graduated from H.S. in 1967. I still go down there quite a Ardmore. Have many, many friends there. Where are you now? Is there any gold in them there Arbuckles?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:29 - ID#31868)
Many a bright individual, whose walls are laden with degrees and such trophies as would make an Olympian blush, arrived before these that you place at the players' table.

The reality is this game has been played over and over again. When you start with dishonest money you die the death of all financial whores.

History has taught all of us that the politician and banker can not be trusted. Therefore the value of money must be given back to the rightful owner of financial reality. Gold and silver as they are not the promise of another.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:31 - ID#371321)
@ Gold $ US$ Probable Scenerio?
I see that the discussion has focused correctly on the important relationship of Gold vs US$, and Gold vs Foreign Currencies.I've
enjoyed lurking thru some elequent posts as well as some rather
apocalyptic. I believe we ,when looking at the BIG PICTURE should
keep in mind that the US is still the world's Superpower with the
strongest ( for now ) ecomony, and thte US$ is still the World's Reserve
Currency, and as I stated numerous times the US is not going to roll
over without a fight. A probable scenerio IMHO is that this Asian "crisis"
will eventually hit Wall St., causing some panic, and it is at that point, that THEY will act to stop the Deflationary Spiral. First they will lower INTEREST RATES, thereby in effect devaluing the US$ vs the Ultimate
Currency Gold. In addition to the upward move in Gold that this would cause, this would also serve to stabilize the equity markets world wide a la 1987, and would signal the start of the next GREAT GOLD BULL RUSH. I've written here about Deja Vu, well in 1976, while riding
down in an elevator,a senior VP ( paper bull ) who knew I was
a Gold Bug said to me "We have both Gold and the Market going up they both can't be right" and guess what I said.
But I feel they still have a number of methods of "regulatiing" this Gold Bull mentioned in my previous posts. One final thought, should anyone
doubt these methods and believe that this is going to happen overnight
think of Karlito and the rest ( most ) who have been "brainwashed" over many years to believe way they do. IMHO this GOLD Bull is going
to have as they say"legs". The real moves in Gold are going to come as the US$ is challenged as the World's Reserve Currency.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:33 - ID#401460)
WSF (Larry Summers)
Larry Summers like Robert Ruben is from Goldman Sachs right? Goldman Sachs was the largest private investor in Mexico right? We had to bail them out right? Mexico never really paid back the loan, they just borrowed money from th IMF and gave it to the US. Where did the IMF get the money? - RIGHT! It's the ole Clinton Goldman Sachs shell game over and over. Just business as usual people.

Date: Sat Dec 13 1997 22:01
Karlito99__"A ( Korea, Thailand, not really a problem ) ID#78116:
All the hand ring about the economic meltdown of Korea is misplaced.
General Electric has a greater market capitalization than the entire stock
markets of Korea, Thailand, and Malysia.... All these countries could sink into
the pacific ocean and in real terms the global financial system wouldn't even
notice them as missing."

You are right, however that is why the owners of the Central Banks will not and do not have to sell their Gold. GE, NBC, CNBC, MSNBC, Rockefeller Center, Goldman Sachs, Rockefellers, Mexico, Sec. Treasury Robert Ruben, Goldman Sachs, President Clinton, Wintrop Rockefeller of Ark., Health Care, Hillary Clinton, Rockefeller of WVA, Standard Oli / BP Oil, John D. Rockefeller, Nelson Aldrich, Rothschild, Nelson Aldrich Rockefeller, Nixon, China, Clinton, China, Hitler Gold & Oil, GE in Mexico, Etc. Etc. Who has majority stock control of General Electric? Who really has control of US Gold - the US Congress? Who owns the Federal Reserve?

Who is buying banks and industry in Asia at bargain prices now? Asia has been forced to their knees and must open their markets to them.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:37 - ID#41229)
Flight to Quality
One thing that doesn't sit right to me is why would the money be fleeing to US$, reports have been posted of Japan borrowing against the Notes instead of selling ( I'm sure that was done to prevent a panic sell off )
In the past years who has been purchasing our debt? Has it not been Asian countries except that of Saudi Arabia and Kuwiate ( repayment of war ) If this is the case the US has lost their money tree?

Steve - Perth
(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:39 - ID#284177)
Steves specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA
LATEST NEWS: Steve & Rowena Blizard are proud to announce the birth of their first child, son Nathan on 11th December, 5.19pm Perth ( Western Australia ) Time. Now four days old, he is coming on just fine. Mother is coping well. Not sure about Dad. If you see the odd break in news articles, this is why!!! Thanks again to all our well wishers since the initial announcement & advice. We need it!


Indonesia worse than Thailand

Bargain-hunters take chance on miners

NZ voters are wary of M.A.I. free-trade treaty


Asia: the time is right, but proceed cautiously

Red alert for Korea's banks - Korea is in DEEP TROUBLE NOW!

ALSO - The latest from the Intelligence Digest:

US prepares for mass casualties in Korean war

The US has asked Japan to draw up contingency plans for receiving

120,000 casualties in the event of a new Korean war.

MIM ( Mt Isa Mines ) crashes to 18-year low as investors bail out

Insurers refusing to cover Year 2000 Millenium Bug problems

US locomotive on track for a long uphill ride - The Maverick

Too many eggs in an Asian basket case

No more Letters of Credit for Korean Manufacturers!!!!!!!!!!

Crisis shoves Korea's giants to wall


ASIA'S NEXT CASUALTY? Bad banks could clobber China

Whistling past the graveyard in Asia


Rupiah now down 100% for the year

Korean Won down by 10%. Down 70% for year.

Clinton shifts strategy on nuclear war

Billion-dollar buyouts lead attack on bankruptcy

Korean Shipbuilding Group had 20 times debt to equity!

Korean steel hits US & European production

The good, the bad and the ugly banks of Asia

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:

( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

ps. I agree with John Disney. There is some evil force at work with the double spacing. I too can check the comment Preview in single space, & it will still come out as double space occasionally.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:40 - ID#344308)

i'm a later, not a sooner.

that hook has no barb.....slid right off....

you do have a goat-tee.....don't you?; )

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:41 - ID#31868)
dead is dead
If various individuals and organizations wanted to put any of the Rothschild's brains on the dinner table for supper this could have been easily achieved. It still could in the time it takes you to get wood for the fire.

Look deeper than that.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:43 - ID#93232)
@vronsky...HepCat wouldn't know this.....

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:43 - ID#401460)
refer (Flight to Quality)
Ruben's Partner at Goldman Sachs, Friday on CNBC stated that there exist an agreement between Japan and The US on how they can use there US$ and US Bonds, as collateral against US loans etc. maybe secured with US Gold?? I think - this has been taken care of; however, IMHO just reinforces the weakness of the US$.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:45 - ID#35767)
Achilles Heel
Could the US status as world reserve currency be its achilles heel. Never before has a Govt or its Banks guaranteed more to benefit Big financial interests without the knowledge or understanding of the populace. This is the making of a dollar collapse when the downturn requires these guarantees be met or not. When the truth comes out there is going to be outrage especially against the financial elite who used their money to gain their socialist favors while the retirement age for Social security is raised, medicare is cut and workers are laid off to face their no benefit contract employment. MAD is not the word for the backlash. Needless to say you want to be out of dollars before the political events occur hence strength in th important currencies like the DM and Europe where social benefits are maintained for those who produce unlike USA and the wealth gap is narrow as the social contract between workers and Capital is maintained. Europe will look like a haven of peace and stability compared to the US when the truth comes out. This segways well now with the incessant and repetitive harping about how great the US economy is ( NOT ) . The bigger the lie the more they will believe it...J. Goebbels.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:49 - ID#24095)
@market update
March gold up .40 to 285.2...S&P's have recovered from downdraft...near even..silver steady.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:49 - ID#335190)
TOKYO, Dec 15 ( Reuters ) - Japanese business confidence has taken a sharp turn for the worse in a sign that the nation's delicate economy could be in for further knocks, a central bank survey known as the "tankan" showed on Monday.

A key index in the survey measuring business sentiment at large manufacturing firms fell to **minus 11**, a drop of 14 points ( corrects ) from the previous survey in September.

December 14, 1997
China says won't sell gold in large quantities

BEIJING ( Reuters ) - China has no plans to follow the central banks of some countries which have been selling large amounts of gold, the China Daily Business Weekly reported Sunday. "China will by no means sell gold in large quantities on the international market," the newspaper quoted an unidentified central bank official as saying.

Worldwide confidence in gold has been eroded by central bank selling. Prices fell this month to their lowest level in 18 years. Pressure was building on China to further adjust its gold purchasing and selling prices after already reducing them twice this year, the weekly said.

"In accordance with common practice, our purchasing price for gold is supposed to be pegged to the ever-changing global price," the central bank official said."Otherwise rampant smuggling and distorted expenses paid to gold mines would cause significant losses to the state coffers,"
the official said. He did not comment further.

Last week, the semi-official China News Service said domestic gold prices were expected to stay at levels in the near future. China was expected to produce at least 150 metric tons of gold in 1997, the weekly said, quoting Wang Dexue, director of the gold bureau under the Ministry of Metallurgical Industry.

China's gold output in the first 11 months of 1997 totaled 137.1 tonnes, a 27.8 percent year-on-year increase. Gold production last year was 120.6 tonnes, up by about 12 percent compared with 1995.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:52 - ID#31868)
Look at the unemployment figures in Europe. There is a flashpoint. I believe historians refer to it as revolution.

Who benefits from global strife? And what group or organization might be called upon in a situation needing global policing? And upon whose authority might these global police be summoned.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 19:58 - ID#335190)
WTO statement @ 1920's Bull S&)*@ (Depression caused by Federal Reserve)
December 14, 1997
WTO buoyed by bank pact, but problems loom

GENEVA ( Reuters ) - The World Trade Organization will seek a new focus in the drive to open up the global economy following the conclusion of a pact lowering national barriers to foreign banks and insurance companies,

In what WTO Director-General Renato Ruggiero hailed over the weekend as the 3-year-old body's miracle year, major trade accords have been clinched to liberalize the three fastest-growing international industries.

In February, global telecommunications were brought under the world trade watchdog's umbrella, meaning any member country breaking open trading rules in the sector can be held to account -- and coerced into shaping up -- through the WTO dispute system.

Supporters of open trade, and most skeptics, accept that the global economic boom after World War II was fueled by the surge in goods commerce promoted by accords under the WTO's forerunner, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade ( GATT ) .

Instead of the "beggar my neighbor" protectionist policies of the 1920s, which led to the Great Depression of the 1930s, countries around the globe came to recognize that working together to reduce trade barriers was in everyone's interests.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:03 - ID#304282)
I've read this board for awhile but have never posted. Nice to see some Oklahomans. I am from Frederick and I currently attend Oklahoma St. Does anyone have any historical examples of how gold has performed in a deflationary enviroment. Also anyone have any thoughts on the Prudent Bear mutual fund? Thanks!

Crystal Ball
(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:03 - ID#287367)
@ 
Hello,  ! We do have an island reversal day in the $XAU. The past 7 trading sessions look like a bottom; mining stocks are not following bullion lower any more. We could see $300 spot gold very soon. Silver? $6.80 would not surprise me one bit. I'm thinking of trading in my junk silver soon ( tidy little profit ) for poor oversold Platinum. Best regards!

Silver Bull
(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:05 - ID#287312)
Buy Stops

Heavy buy stops in London above $6.05.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:06 - ID#398105)
High Grade SILVER, Munni Munni Complex, Western Australia

G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

Another round of drilling results are to be reported to the ASX today. The general comment is "Looks VERY good". Stocks of interest are EAST COAST MINERALS and LEGEND MINING NL. Reported average grade at this time is 5% silver, with large exploration upside for tonnes. It's a RIPPER.

Aye, Haggis

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:07 - ID#335190)
December 14, 1997
FOCUS-Japan corporate gloom deepens in December

Major non-manufacturers grew even gloomier, with the diffusion index for the sector dropping to minus 20 from minus 15.

Firms in both sectors expect business sentiment to worsen further in the coming three months. Big manufacturers forecast a diffusion index of minus 15 in March, while their non-manufacturing colleagues predicted a slump to minus 22.

"It's much worse than expected. I think this basically really confirms an economic downturn. To me there's no question," said Mineko Sasaki-Smith, chief economist at Credit Suisse First Boston.

But Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto has been loath to renege on his high-profile commitment to fiscal austerity for fear of suffering a big political embarrassment.

The dollar firmed against the yen, Tokyo share prices fell and Japanese government bond prices edged up after the tankan's release. The greenback was trading at aout 130.80 yen about a half-hour after the data came out.

Small manufacturers were even more pessimistic about business prospects that their bigger rivals.

The diffusion index for smaller makers dove to minus 21 from minus 13 in September and the firms expected it to plunge to minus 33 in March.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:15 - ID#339274)
paper control
HighRise,thanks for your presentation of ( refer:Flight to Quality )

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:17 - ID#35767)
The US has the worst labor market in the advanced world and credit card mania has kept the illusion of well being alive/ along with a desirous govt and compliant and possibly ignorant press. When you count those who have given up looking for a job/those forced into part time work and dont count prisoners as employed our unemployment rate is about 17%. ( forget also that about 200000 jobs are added based on "bias" versus counting ) . Further the lack of benefits and the increase in contract work are indicators of just how grave things are. Germany has 12% unemployment but there like in other countries in Europe the 88% employed have REAL jobs with benefits. The unemployed have such wonderful long term unemployment benefits that they do not pressure wages and benefits for those still working. Further, employed or unemployed they have full medical and educational benefits plus day care and awards for those who have children. Prisoners are also not counted as employed.

I would rather have this model of socialism than the one that concentrates on bailing out banks/corrupt financial institutions and corrupt political officials. Finally in Europe there is little inflation as a result of their brand of Socialism versus the present US brand which at the end of the day is probably more expensive than the European brand. OH yes I forgot, most of these uncompetitive countries have current account surpluses unlike the highly competitive USA /HAR HAR.
Oh yes their Big Corporations are maintaining their bases of operations in the homeland and doing quite well.

The only victim in Europe is that the Financial institutions and brokerages have not done as well as their US counterparts. Further the Stk markets have not done as well and their mgmt in companies earns far less relative to workers than the stk option happy pink slippers in the US. Oh well there are downsides to any system.

Someone has done a great job in convincing people that corporate bailoutsperks and pandering by BIG GOVT is somehow part of a free mkt system.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:19 - ID#215208)
Donald ( 18:12 ) - Unfortunately we can't look at the US$ index. The countries we are interested in are in general not the majors. For instance, the biggest gold buyers are India and SE Asia. The drop in their currencies is not so much related to the strength of the dollar, as to factors associated with their economies. IMHO, these factors are the ones we must watch, primarily. Right now these gold-significant currencies are heading down faster and faster, and taking gold with them.

But yes, the factors favoring gold are the reasons why I would rather establish a currency hedge, than sell all my gold stuff.

BTW - I will be traveling this week, leaving tonight. Will try to catch up with Kitco each evening. Should be an exciting week. Good luck to all of you!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:20 - ID#24095)
March gold up .60 to 285.4...March silver at 5.91...Nikkei down one percent...Korea up 6%

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:23 - ID#31868)
No matter how you slice it this pie will not feed everyone when the bell tolls. I do not disagree with the majority of your post. However, there is still much that is not known due to the risks taken and stupidity of many of the worlds banks actions in the past several years.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:29 - ID#238422)

Thanks for your reply, JTF.

I think, that when we talk about nukes, world leaders and other global matters, we in fact try to figure out what is really going on with
our gold investments and should we panic right now or should we sit
tight. It's funny, but this nukes stuff tells us at least two

1. Gold cannot go below $100/oz
2. Gold cannot go above $10,000/oz

Now we got our up and down limits.

Next step - what are the short term and long term trends?

We figured that long term trend WILL BE up, JUST because too strong
US$ is good for the U.S.buyers, but bad for the U.S. sellers, and
we indeed need to sell, otherwise US economy is in serious trouble...

Now, what is your opinion on short term trend in gold price?
Would be grateful for your comments.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:30 - ID#26669)
JTF&DJ I did find 2 links discussing growth limiting factors

IMHO the limiting factor to the present $US rise will be one of the more traditional ones such as lack of confidence, political instability, drought, taxation, et cetera. Or just a small percentage of the investors taking 5% of their Tbills and buying gold.

But these links might give some insights into other longer term issues. Both should be taken with a grain of salt as they presume that present population trends will continue. I suspect that what might happen instead will be a critical population density allowing either spread of monkey pox, ebola, AIDS, influenza et cetera or too many confrontations between the three main monotheistic western religions resulting in warfare. ( Sadly both would be good for gold prices. )

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:33 - ID#35767)
My arguments are why they cant let US stocks fall. It makes all the crap that is spewed seem believiable and go unquestioned. The tension between the interests of mgmt ( read profits ) and the workers ( read wages and social peace, at the end of the day they NEED social peace in the west as without it they are done ) will eventually come to the fore. It is guaranteed in an econ debacle. By making everything seem OK the financial elite are seen as STK mkt heroes and thus have free reign to access the benefits of Big Govt Socialism without question. If the financial mkts go the game will reverse. Hence Robert Rubin and Goldman. Notice how Abby Joseph Cohen OF GOLDMAN is always upbeat on the mkt no matter what. If it werent serious it would be comical.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:34 - ID#26669)
Try again to give a working post
There are two references but only the first seems to want to load for some reason from the short comments page.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:38 - ID#283199)
I think it must be a typo on silver spot ?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:42 - ID#189273)
gold in deflation
TRICKY, gold has performed splendidly in a deflationary environment. Better than in inflation, despite popular opinion to the contrary. Refer to Roy Jastram's "The Golden Constant". "Four pronounced price deflations took place in the four centuries recorded, with the three most severe occurring since 1800. In all four price recessions operational wealth in the form of gold appreciated handsomely. When one sees that just by holding gold for 13 years from 1920 to 1933 operational wealth would have increased 2 1/2 times, one realizes that gold can be a valuable hedge in deflation, however poor in inflation." In England, 1658 - 1669, English prices deflated by 21%, a compound annual rate of -2.2%. Gold's purchasing powere rose by 70%. Other examples are cited. Won't use up the group's space with them all. You might find the source book at, where there are lots of used books for sale. Haven't looked.

ROR, where did you get your US unemployment rate of 17%? Haven't trusted the gov't. # since the Kennedy administration changed the way it was reported. Been looking for solid data for years.

HIGHRISE, recently got a fine 3 piece suit, altered price in the mid 300's USD at Nordstrom's, which actually beat the Men's Wearhouse price. Bet after Christmas, we might find some better prices. As to 282 USD, don't expect gold to be there over one month, if 80's charts are any indication.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:43 - ID#432148)
Gold in a deflationary environment
TRICKY: Lord William Rees-mogg says in his book The Great Reckoning that gold normally performs well in deflationary times, a la the mid '30's. Then of course it had a panic up move in the late '70's inflation. So, take your pick.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:46 - ID#31868)
What we are about to see is a classic deflation resulting in depression. We like those in the 30s think we have the latest this that and the other. Everything is different, people are better informed, living better than those that came before us. Horsepucky.

Certain basic rules of economics apply and it won't matter if you are a country or an individual. Those that make poor decisions will be poor.

Some of these decisions have already been made and all of us will have to endure the fallout.

No more, no less.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:48 - ID#41229)
Overnight markets
Could someone post an url of overnight markets. Checking out yahoo world market page and do not have same as what is being posted

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:48 - ID#35767)
I have faith that the US will emerge OK from the debacle ( though not financially ) and that is because of the REAL GOLD this country has that no other country has ( and Clinton and Rubin and the IMF and other pols fear ) a long history of Democracy with free speech and a govt with checks and balances. It can only be manipulated now due to the money greed thing going on and an intense fear among the elite of what will happen when the hidden becomes obvious and the media spin. When the collapse occurs our real gold of Democracy will ensure justice prevails and the guilty are punished. Today the BANKRUPTCY RATE TELLS THE ONLY TRUTH ABOUT THE ECONOMY. Credit bubble followed by collapse! How many times do you hear about that sign of every healthy economy ie credit expansion and soaring Bankruptcies HAR HAR. Not as long as the DOW stays near its highs! And then the Socialism for WAll St and Banks can continue too. But cut SS for baby Boomers is just plain responsible even though they are paying record taxes into the system. When the truth comes out in the debacle watch out.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:52 - ID#24095)
March silver apprioaching $6.00...March gold also moving up...on les aura!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:55 - ID#427357)
Tokyo Gold up 1.3%. See GOLD CORNER, once there CLICK coin "TOKYO GOLD:"

(Sun Dec 14 1997 20:59 - ID#189273)
ROR, careful, I think you're drooling. Time to cut the polemics and settle down. We're investors here. Like numbers. Lots and lots of numbers to crunch. That last post of yours is starting to sound like "end of the world" dramatics. So where do you get your unemployment figures?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:04 - ID#427357)
Tokyo Gold up 1.3%. See GOLD CORNER, once there CLICK coin "TOKYO GOLD:"

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:05 - ID#432148)
Refer-overnite markets url

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:06 - ID#31868)
When all is said and done, no matter what you think or how you got there, one thing is certain, we are about to enter a most interesting phase in economic history.

From my vantage point I hope you all have lots of metal in physical and paper form.

Take a peek at BEARX or similar funds for those of you that cannot keep up with or do not feel comfortable with shorting the market.

Don't bet the farm on anything. Make prudent decisions, but do not sit on the fence, because this time around one side will have something and the other won't. It will be very clear cut and defined.

If you can terminate debt, do it.

PS - get Camdesuss!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:08 - ID#427357)


Coming off the brilliant SILVER CALL recently, Mike Sheller shares another insightful and quite possibly prophetic outlook for the stock market and precious metals. This will be, if nothing else, a "stress test" of sorts for the stock market. As he sees it, between his calculations and our Jupiterian observations, stocks don't have a chance. Full view from observatory at:

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:09 - ID#41229)

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:12 - ID#401460)
ROR Unemployment Rate
In my neck of the woods the unemployment rate is 2+%. I ran an add for Architects, off and on for two months, not one Architect responded, only interns and the like. The construction industry is swamped building these huge malls and homes. Talk about leverage and a balloon ready to burst.

I do not agree with your socialism, it has never worked and never will. And IMHO that is what is wrong with this country - those who are trying to take us down that idealistic socialistic dream path, where government will take care of us all - just who in the H do you think controls the government in Europe anyway? Who financed Lenin? Do your historical research, it is not a matter of Democrat or Republican. They use who, whom, what when and where ever they need to achieve their goals. What Senator from WVA sponsored Hillary's Health care bill? Pure Socialism at it's finest. And at what price?
Some of your heros were owned by the bankers, and those who challenged them were removed.

I am just betting that after they get what they want and are in position, they plan on running Gold UP - and I hope to tag along for the ride.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:17 - ID#432148)
Your thots are a mirror of mine. Amazing how long the patch job goes on. The IMF, the CB's, the US, etc. What ever happened to free markets where those that screw up get washed out? And once the derivative balloon blows the CB's can sell all their gold, it still won't hold down the market panic.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:17 - ID#35767)
Sorry didnt mean to git cha all wet. The numbers were from a few issues of Barron's regarding employment. They are verifiable by calling the Labor Dept. It is common knowledge that discouraged workers are not counted as unemployed as neither are the forced part time employed. According to Barron's these numbers hit close to the 10%-12% category. Then we have the admitted 4.6% unemployed. The prison population is over 1 million so thats another 1 %-1.5%. Plus as the Labor dept will tell you they count jobs and then just assume because of the theoretical dynamism of the economy another 100-200000 are created.

As you can see the picture is not rosy. As I drooled before "the bankruptcy rate is the REAL STORY of the status of US job mkt and wages. If you think of it if the real story were reported it would be politically impossible to bailout Mexico ( read NY financial institutions ) or Asia ( read Same in the end ) . in sum, without the current spin it would be impossible to socialize investment risk as is currently being pursued. The result will be the same in the US as with any extreme socialism/CRASH. Europe will reign supreme because of maintenance of its social contract. The reason for the Euro is because of the realization that the S is going to hit the fan in the US and big money will need the Euro. All this should be good for PMs.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:25 - ID#401460)
ROR Unemployment Rate
I agree, that the Clinton administration fudges all of the numbers - to establish the perceived reality they want the public or the Fed Reserve to have. I disagree with them doing that just as I disagree with your twisting numbers around to support you dream of Socialism.

How many people are there in prison in China, do you know of any one who needs a kidney?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:27 - ID#31868)
Your last post has certain elements which I see. However, contracts or not, bankruptcy worldwide of countries, markets, etc, will shatter all pre-concieved concepts.

The world will be cast like a seed in a new field. I just hope that cooler, wiser heads prevail. Things will be alot different in a few days time.

Hopefully the middle class of America will hold the line and demand better acountability from those in "charge."

It is my contention that the middle class of America will be the saving grace of this debacle.

Get Camdesuss!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:31 - ID#35767)
HIGH rise
Marxist Socialism is based on theoretically getting something for nothing/ much like the socialization of investment risk pursued today in the US for WAll ST. The people in Europe pay high taxes to pay for social benefits. They choose to do this and it works.Its like buying insurance everyone pays into a pool to avert risk some will need it some wont but its there and it creates stability. In our system in US we pay for social protection but they call it a crisis to payoff ie Baby boomer SS and medicare. Why isnt bailing out a financial institution considered a similar problem. Further ask our Canadian Friends on this site whether they prefer their medical insurance system or would opt for the US system if given the chance. Further SS and MEDI are in trouble because the surpluses are used to reduce the current deficits which again benefits Wall St at the expense of the taxpayer. Ask your Congreesman to stop borrowing funds to shore the system up. Oh but then where would the money be for the financial bailouts. The American Public is being fleeced by the Financial institutions and when the truth comes out there is going to be hell to pay. No wonder they are dumbing down the educational system. MTV uber alles

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:33 - ID#227238)
@ the gold for oil contradiction.
Allen: Your last post cleared the contradiction I have had since reading Another's comments on oil for gold. Whether you ( and Another ) are right or wrong, in your assesment, at least the mechanism is now coherent. A bit farfetched but coherent. Thanks.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:38 - ID#35767)
Socialist Dream
No dream just give us what we have paid for. That is not Socialism just honesty. When you pay for social protection it is just an insurance premium. I am for those who paid there way and against the free loading financial institutions who want to use my SS money to bailout their bad investment decisions. HIGH RISE you tell ME who has the socialist dream!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:39 - ID#189273)
Thanks. Agree that common folks going belly up in this so-called prosperity is very worrisome, but then, they pay me to worry. Didn't bankruptsy rules get more lenient a few years back, though, turning it almost into a no-fault situation? Read something about that recently, but can't remember exactly what it was.

I Wonder how many of the non-taxpaying, so-called unemployed are just under-the table. Got to be numbered in the millions. They are all over my neck of the woods, knocking on the door, offering to cut the grass or shampoo the carpets, etc. Most of these guys haven't been in the US long enough to get the hang of the language, either.

Don't see the Euro flying, don't think the socialist gov't. in France will be willing to swallow the bitter pill needed to meet requirements. Will the drop in gold prices make this any easier for the EC to meet their requirements? I don't see it.

Glad to see gold holding at these levels.

Still wondering what the oil ministers are up to. Got any insights, STUDIO R, if you're out there now... Read a Jimmy Rodgers article in Worth about a year ago now that sent me worrying. Said the Saudi king passed over 7 English-speaking and western-educated brothers to give the Oil reins to a half-brother who was neither, and was the brains of the oil embargo of the 1970's that we remember so well. I am expecting something totally different ( a la monty python ) in that regard.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:45 - ID#30116)
Cooold on the mountain...

Looks like Old Man Winter is putting in his two cents. It's a good thing that oil and gas is cheap, and getting cheaper... :- ) )

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:45 - ID#20137)
PR just can't make it so
Sunday December 14, 8:57 pm Eastern Time

"HK stocks expected to open up, eyeing South Korea"

I Don't think so...

Hong Kong Hang Seng ^HSI 9:43PM 10405.33 -209.33 -1.97%

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:49 - ID#364147)
@ Panda and Mt. Washington
A little breezy 'up there'!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:52 - ID#7568)

Looks like El Nino has struck Mexico:

A little more to the east an OJ will be soaring.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:52 - ID#31868)
You won't have much trouble from the people that have nothing. They will lose nothing. The people that have one evening and wake up with nothing on the morrow will be the societal problem.

Hopefully those that end up with something will not make the same mistakes as those who wore the better clothes before them.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:54 - ID#35767)
Bankruptcy is and always has been a no fault thing unless fraud can be proven. The rise in BR is a result of looser credit and individuals getting in over their heads because the money is there. Nevertheless the rate of Bankruptcy indicates the true state of the economy FOR MOST ie BAD no raises no benefits SQUEEZED in a word.

NO bankruptcy rules have not been loosened. Unsecured debt is just that unsecured debt and when an econ downturn hits a family the legal profession and the courts are there to give them another chance.

They are talking about loosening the laws to make BR easier and make student loans dischargeable in BR. Clinton is pushing the later and IMHO to charge what colleges charge in relationship to job opportunities is almost fraud. In another rare instance where I agree with Clinton he supports a Kennedy move to lower the SS tax on lower earners and take the cap off for higher earners thus making the system of taxation more progressive. Clinton also supports a larger credit for child care expenses. I dont like alot of what he is doing but on these issues I think he has it right in helping working people instead of Financial Institutions.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 21:57 - ID#30116)
Ay Yuh!

Ted, remember Murphy's Law? If it aint broke.... don't fix it. Silly me needed more disk space. Sooo, I bought myself a software package to do an image copy of my old drive on to the new one. The product claimed that nothing could go wrong, even a power failure during the transfer couldn't mess things up. This should be a 'painless' and 'easy' thing to do. Guess what? The old drive developed a bad block of data during the data transfer. The program promptly stopped. I've just barely recovered the system at this point.

Jeeez, I love these new and 'better' products.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 22:06 - ID#364147)
@ D.A. + Panda
D.A.: Couldn't get your 33 more words ( my ISP is barely alive ) but am glad I moved North to get away from all that snow---up to a FOOT in parts of Mississippi and the ground here is bare....Thw whales left but 'the show' was spectacular while it lasted...Panda: Tinkering again...huh...better you than me as if I can't hit 'it' with a hammer I get is actually up tonight---yip-EEEEEE...g'night all!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 22:06 - ID#30116)
All of these people worried about global warming and such. I think tomorrow ( around here ) I would enjoy a little global warming...

El Nino has been around for all long time, so why are the global warming folks claiming that there's a connection between the two? The only 'green house gases' around then came from cows, horses, and,... well you get my point. On the other hand, it's a nice way to drive up fuel prices on the pretext of global warming ( carbon tax ) and not have it counted as 'inflationary'. :- ) )

Clever these politicians are!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 22:06 - ID#401460)
Gold Up Early In Aussie Land
Isn't this early for Gold to move up in Australia? Seems like it has been a long time since we have seen Gold going up in Aussie Land.

Is this a new trend maybe?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 22:07 - ID#342273)
S + P Futures
What's the url for after/off hours S + P Futures?

(Sun Dec 14 1997 22:12 - ID#189273)
Thanks for the clarification. No doubt, the high bankruptcy rate is troubling. If the pullbacks, layoffs, etc. that the current Asia mess could trigger world-wide do occur, it will certainly be a disaster.

Wait a minute on this tax issue! The progressive tax is just a nasty way for folks in the low expense areas to milk folks, like me at the moment, who live in high-cost areas. My dear sister has a cost of housing less than a quarter of mine and much finer, to boot! She and her hubby ( school teacher and clerk ) are doing great, recently vacationed in Hawaii, and paying barely any tax, while, I, sigh, am getting killed, supposedly the evil rich you want to tax further! Wake up and see the light. The cost of living in many areas is driving incomes high, and the poor workers, who have no choice but to be there, and not only vilified by all for their so-called "high" incomes", they pay high prices across the boards and half their income in combined state and federal taxes.

Back to gold, however, which is a fine store of value, it's hanging in there. Hope reigns eternal

(Sun Dec 14 1997 22:14 - ID#30116)
D.A. , TED
One thing I noticed this weekend while food shopping was that men tend to pay with cash and women tend to use debit or credit cards to buy food. I was really amazed at the frequency that people used credit or debit cards to pay for booze and food at the supermarkets. Not only that, but they were 'over paying' on the cards to get cash back from the cashier. What a concept eh? Go out food shopping and come back home with more money in your pocket than you left home with! Homer Simpson, where are you!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 22:20 - ID#35767)
I agree I live in a high cost area and bucks are not the same here as elsewhere. Maybe we should index taxes based on where you live. We can create new cost of living zones. I like it!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 22:24 - ID#57232)
Limits of environmental growth & Club of Rome
223: Interesting site you dug up -- looks just like the world food supply! As I recall, there have been several studies such as these many years ago, one by a MIT group on the imminent shortage of oil, which the world avoided, and another by a pro-environmentalist group that also proved much too pessimistic. I don't know much about the authors of the Club of Rome report, except that interesting color graph of the trend in our food/oil supply comes from another work called "Beyond the Limits" written by authors with excellent pedigrees it seems. Of course a pedigree doesn't mean you are right -- just that more people will listen to you.

I find the link with the Club of Rome interesting -- you can e-mail the members, if you wish to, or at least browse over their names. Perhaps they will ring a bell with one of our fellow Kitcoites that know more about economics than I do. Just click on the "contact them" in the upper RH corner.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 22:30 - ID#93232)
@GOD OF FIRE...we mortals do appreciate your gift especially in December.
I am at a complete loss, in more ways than one, to understand the oil production increase by the arab states. It simply does not make sense to me. What have they got planned and what is it they know? I'm beguiled, bedazzled and bewildered and behurtin'!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 22:35 - ID#426220)
The ORACLE of the Orient long absent from our website has returned with a vengeance in his scathing rebuttal of Central Bank spewing that gold is dead, that gold is no longer a hedge against economic and currency chaos, etc. etc. His succinct and extremely well-documented opinion concludes that Central Bank braying is RUBBISH, RUBBISH AND MORE RUBBISH.

The ORACLE proves beyond a shadow of doubt that the only defense southeast Asians had... AND WILL HAVE - against the on-going currency chaos, stock market turmoil and the regions crumbling bank system is to invest in GOLD. The staunchest and most fanatical anti-GOLDBUGS are obliged to concede to the irrefutable evidence that GOLD is the ONLY SAFE HARBOR vis--vis the looming and devastating Domino Effect engulfing the area:

(Sun Dec 14 1997 22:43 - ID#189273)
Cost of living zones would work. The Feds would hate them! All those precious taxes lost. . . .

(Sun Dec 14 1997 22:58 - ID#27454)
To Studio R from almost sob
Missed kicking in in Ardmore by 3 weeks. Daddy took a job with Texaco and packed moma and big bro and we went across the river. From Wilson to Electra!! Some people have taken a bath in oil service stocks recently. Dont even come close to taking a bath in the real thing and then REALLY wanting a cigarette. Im getting to old for that stuff. The Arabs are at this point seeing whose tallywacker is the biggest. Saudi is tired of the cheating on quotas. There is too much supply comming out of the North Sea, Mexico and South America. While Indonesia is predominatly a natural gas producer it has a lot of crude reserves. They are wanting US$ to cushin their problems. If the Saudis get tired of playing this little game like they did in 1986, all bets are off. When posted WTI drops below 14$ and stays there for a month, this part of the world is in deep do-do. At 16$ the E&P and independeants will keep drilling. But I think some of them have put their finger on the stop button. Two weeks before thanksgiving construction in the oilfield was booming. In the last two weeks welders, construction people, etc have come home for Christmas. Companies are telling them the work will be shut down until after the first. My own clients have told me to take some time off and rest up for next year. This reminds me of 1982. Scarey. Drilling companies have stopped advertising for hands. Two drillers I know were told that when their rig completes their current holes that they will be going into the yard at Hobbs NM for maintenence and painting. Four weeks ago things were completly different. It may just be the survivors remember 82 to 86 and dont want to get caught with their pants down.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 23:03 - ID#238422)

Dear Studio,

Don't break your head trying to figure it out.
Increase in oil production is a Christmas gift
from the arab states to the American people.

Merry Christmas!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 23:04 - ID#372344)
@ STUDIO R. Increase Oil Supply?
Again here we have another example of reality vs perceived reality.
OPEC was overproducing for years, members like Saudis and Venezuela, ( among others ) have been "cheating" on their assigned production for quotas for years, the only thing that happened at this
latest OPEC meeting was they increased their individual quotas to
the actual "cheating' amount they were producing. Notice the two biggest "cheaters" allies of US.. The US as we all know now ( thanks
to the Gulf war ) have thousands of soldires in Saudi Arabia, and IMHO the Saudis did so with US hands firmly around their necks. Last year
there was a serious bombing at the US compound, the King who is
said to be very ill chose as his successor none his 7 pro US brothers,
but his half brother Abdoullah who is anti US and has been for some
time, he is the one that representes S.A. in Iran last week. So I would look for a renewed bombing campaign against US to get them out. The rest of the Arabs are also pressuring send the US soldiers home.
The reality is that China will need alot of OIL.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 23:06 - ID#57232)
Oil/gold problem and ANOTHER - oil price floating in US dollars
Earl ( and Allen ( USA ) if your are up, all: I posted yesterday on something which may be very significant. Pre-1973, the price of oil was fixed in US dollars. The OPEC crisis occurred because ( in part ) the Oil producers were being paid in pegged depreciating dollars, which understandably made them very upset. Now, as far as I can tell, oil is fully floating wrt the US dollar. If so, the Oil producers have no need for a "gold for oil" deal to sweeten the pot. They can just buy all the gold they want at the market price.

Please tell me I'm wrong, and the oil is not floating in dollars. If so, I would like to know just how oil is pegged to the dollar.

I think the bottom line is that if there is an oil shortage, or the dollar inflates ( relative to gold ) , the price of oil will go up. It certainly is convenient -- for whatever reason, that the dollar is now very strong relative to gold -- since that also makes oil less expensive.

If I am right, it is now up to the oil comsuming countries to figure out how to prevent the inflation that usually follows rising oil prices, or to bring new energy sources on line. My personal opinion is that we should have started conserving and bringing alternative energy sources on line years ago.

Remmber the solar wave in the 70's? That industry really is in a depression!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 23:10 - ID#408280)
monetizing the Japanese Debt under the table.
According to McAlvany Intelligence Advisor, December 97 Issue, on page 17 3rd paragraph. "On monday 11-24-97 the Bank of Japan asked the Fed to help Japanese banks raise dollars via an "Orderly liquidation" of US Treasury Holdings[ED NOTE: Japan owns 260 Billions of US Treasury paper.] The Fed, which has a pact with the Bank of Japan for quiet orderly liquidation of such Treasuries OFF THE MARKET said yes."

It surely can't be long now until the piper must be paid. God help the soon to be poor US taxpayer!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 23:18 - ID#189273)
Guess we'll all find out what the Arab oil ministers are up to, together. Disagree that it's all benign out there.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 23:32 - ID#57232)
Short term trend in gold prices?
Oris: saw your 20:29. I am no pro in short term predictions. I can tell you what I am doing. About 10% of my liquid assets are in gold stocks. If gold goes down significantly, I will add another 5%. If gold starts looking like silver is now, I will probably go up to 50%, if I am confident that the US markets will not crash at the time. I will not do anything on margin. I did buy silver stocks ( PAASF ) and it has gone up 40% If I was more skilled, I would have been smart enought to buy more. Am reluctant to now, given that the wave may falter, unless there is a true corner in silver. Also, I have the uncanny ability to buy into a short term rally and wipe out my profits.

So I am playing "chicken" with the gold stocks -- but I think the end of the gold bear is really near, given that the effective Euro deadline for Jan 1999 is around April 1998, ( the need for europeans to support the dollar is diminishing ) , and given that the gold producers are reaching cost of production. If the gold goes much below its current price, some CB's are going to find their gold loans turn into gold sales, and that will show on their balance sheets. Also, Mike Stewart has pointed out that the last time the CB's trashed gold it was about two years ( 1974-76, I think ) , and then gold stocks rallied enough to make a gold bug delerious!

What I trust the most is to follow the gurus such as RJ and the Oldman, or D.A. -- all of whom have a good grasp of the intermediate to short-term stuff in gold. Have you seen Mike Stewart's and Cyclist's posts -- they both have been around awhile, seem equally confortable either bearish or bullish, unlike us more typical "dyed in the wool" gold bugs, who are convinced that it will always go up!

I am fiddling with options using "funny money" -- but my track record is lousy on such things -- not enough experience -- so this will remain funny money only for some time to come.

Hope that helps a little. Wish I could be more definite.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 23:38 - ID#93114)
Liquidation of US Bonds in an Orderly Fashion??

rkm ...if the Fed has agreed to help the Japanese liquidate their US
Bond holdings in an orderly fashion, does that mean Mr. Puetz's stock market collapse scenario will come to fruition? What better way to liquidate the Japanese stock pile of US Bonds than cause a stock market crash and have everyone flock to the SAFETY of US Securities!
They would be able to unload all their US Bonds at the cost of all the
little investors who would not know what has hit them. Maybe that is the reason for all the world's top economic brass meeting this week!!!!

(Sun Dec 14 1997 23:40 - ID#225283)

Well it is nice to know that this is now out in the public...I honestly hope it does not get broadcast around the world as a fact...the truth be told it has been going on for a while...but if this news gets picked up by the mainstream media the party will end in a hurry.

Mr & Mrs Taxpayer how would you like to pay today...okay ...we'll just double the interest payments on your record high consumer debt and begin foreclosure on many of those adjustable rate mortgages.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 23:42 - ID#225283)

Well it is nice to know that this is now out in the public...I honestly hope it does not get broadcast around the world as a fact...the truth be told it has been going on for a while...but if this news gets picked up by the mainstream media the party will end in a hurry.

Mr & Mrs Taxpayer how would you like to pay today...okay ...we'll just double the interest payments on your record high consumer debt and begin foreclosure on many of those adjustable rate mortgages.

(Sun Dec 14 1997 23:54 - ID#252127)
"SWISS BANKS" They should get back to their former basics, HARD MONEY, no go-go Anglo Crap and they are screwing up their people for paper profits. This ain't like the Swiss.