Niner
Neat, small program
I meant to include this in my last post - I put this up before, late one evening, don't think too many saw it.
Enjoy!
Who said ?
"The Sky is Spreading with a Stain"
"Something's going to fall like Rain"
"And it wont be Roses"
Prize - One piece of imaginary gold dust
For Karlito The Speechmaker and Frequent Traveller.
You duck my question - Why are you here?? Are you
here to save us from ourselves?? Are you just
another "really good person" built along the
general lines of Hillary Clinton Who CARES about
EVERYBODY ? You hate gold - why do you talk to us??
I'm not going to go away on this one - so may as
well start talking --- C'mon '-- What are your
MOTIVES BABY???
http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi
night all
away...to catch some zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz's
knockingoff
I note with interest your comments on how cash costs are calculated in RSA and your comparison to NA costs. Cash operating costs calculated by NA producers include site costs for all mining, process and "administration" but exclude ryoalties, taxes, depreciation, reclamation, financing costs, capital costs and exploration expenses. However, I have not been able to gleem from financial reports of RSA companies I own, including Harmony and Durban Deep, how they calculate their cash costs, and my attempts to obtain such information by questioning their staff have been rejected.
But your conclusion that cash costs are more then the NAs only due to inclusion of capital costs is seemingly at odds with a recent statement by Mr. Swanepoel of Harmony. Swanepoel stated: "while South African mines are among the world's most expensive in terms of production costs, their low cash costs, particularly compared with the North Americans, meant they were competitive on total costs". His statement is also not in accord with media reports on RSA mine cash costs. However he does support your view of comparable total costs, and perhaps he did not include capital costs in his cash cost definition which may account for the difference in cash cost valuation.
ABX's total production cost in their "96" annual report is listed at US$253, which is better than I have seen out of RSAs. As far as net profits, I know nothing of Western Areas profits, but for purpose of argument, I will accept your statement that net profits of ABX and Western Areas are about the same. But, a lot goes into the bottom line such as exploration expenses which contribute to growth so it is not a proper comparison to merely look at the bottom line. ABX has enjoyed a large valuation based on its growth profile, the quality of its reserves, cash flow and management, among other factors.
But, it is not my intent here to justify wny ABX should be higher valued then Western Areas or other RSA miners. Suffice to say, the market recognizes greater value in ABX and that is why it is priced the way it is, notwithstanding your continuous carping of comparable valuation. And the market, which also includes subjective investor sentiment, sets the price.
IMO RSA's are indeed attractive as a commodity play by offering a cheap leap call on gold. Those mines who survive should do spectacularly well when gold improves, particularly non-hedgers which have been severely beaten down such as Harmony and Durban. It is only for this reason that I have a relatively small interest in a few. But, in general, I would not invest in them to improve in the current low-priced gold environment by continuing to expand their asset base, such as ABX, Ashanti, Newmont et al. You obviously think differently - and for your sake - as well as mine for the RSA companies I own - I sure hope you are right. Good luck!
I must not be making myself clear.
Of course Lihir has nothing to do with ABX.
Im sure I did not say that as even small
children and maybe dogs know better. I gave
lihir as an example of a mine with assumed
low operation costs BUT OTHER ASSOCIATED
costs that were much higher than western Areas.
I dont think I said rsa average were HIGH -
My god my my point has been that they are
LOW relative to cash costs - while NA mines
are HIGH relative to cash costs -
Please go back and re read my posts - perhaps
you are speed reading them - slow down a little.
We already have alot of unhappy people in SEAsia. They will be alot more unhappy if their currencies are still pegged to the dollar. Regardless, a dollar rise could trigger another rash of competitive devaluations. I wonder -- where will Japan put the line in the sand? They can't continue to devalue the Yen and weaken the dollar at the same time, or can they?
By the way -- mid america ( farmers ) is just noticing that the demand for farm goods -- grains, etc. is starting to drop. We always think that demand for food is inelastic because it is one of those defensive items. But we are not the ones pricing them in dollars, and choosing cheaper sources. Dropping commodity prices always seem to put a dent in gold, even at these firesale prices. We are already at pre-1993 gold/commodity price ratios. I keep telling myself gold is a bargain, buy some, only to watch it drop some more. Gold is a bargain, but we have to be careful not to deplete our savings buying it -- even bullion coins. I want something left for the gold stock bull market to come.
However, this year I made $20,765 on my $1606 worth of put options on 10/27/97, and I am putting almost all of that in gold and silver stocks, and gold coins.
"There ARE strange things done 'neath the midnight sun, By the men who moil for Gold. "
If you are really serious about platinum
stock try.
1. Amplats ( old rustenberg+pp rust+lebowa )
2. Impala platinum
3. Northam ( for strong nerves )
Anglo American Platinum AAPTY
Impala Platinum IMPAY
These are large producers of platinum.
My experience of this is from the 70's and the Yukon but may be within
the ballpark today.
The larger the nugget the higher the price.
Small nuggets and large flakes could be easily sold to the jewellers in
Whitehorse for decorating watch bands and pendants for 50% over spot without an assay.
The largest nuggets I found where about the size of your little fingernail. The gold ranged from flour to that size. I sold it to
the University of Toronto geological department for 25% over spot which
was my asking price and could have been I think higher. They used it as
a teaching specimen for place gold.
Larger nuggets the size of your other fingernails are probably double to triple spot to jewellers.
Anything larger than that would be specimen class - I don't know prices but they would be higher.
Does that help at all?
------------------------------------------
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL INDEX IS JERRY-RIGGED
The Dow Jones industrial index, and other U.S. stock indices, are jerry-rigged.
One indication of that, is the little-spoken-of fraud, the Dow Jones "divisor".
Originally, the Dow Jones industrial average was computed by summing up the closing prices of the stocks in the index and dividing by the number of stocks.
The sum of the closing prices of the 30 stocks that currently make up the Dow Jones, as of March 12, totalled 2287. Dividing that by 30 would yield an index today of only 76.2, at least as constituted by the old-style index. But the Dow Jones index is no longer computed by dividing by 30, representing the number of stocks. In fact, allegedly to take account of stock splits and substitutions, the sum of the prices of the 30 Dow Jones industrial stocks is divided by a divisor. The divisor has shrunk through the years, falling below 1 in 1986.
Today, the divisor is 0.32482. A divisor of less than 1 becomes, in effect, a multiplier. To illustrate: As stated, as of March 12, the the sum of the stock price of the Dow Jones 30 stocks was 2287; if one divides it by the Dow Jones divisor of 0.32482, this yields a Dow Jones index of 7039, which was the Dows closing level on March 12. This fraudulent sleight of hand has been heavily employed to artificially show the Dow Jones industrial index growing since the market crashed in 1987.
On March 12, Dow Jones and Company, which publishes the index, announced that it will drop 4 stocks and add 4 stocks to the index, in an attempt to make the market more post-industrial, and to show even greater speculative rises ( there is also the very significant role of Chicago stock option indices to hold up the market, to be covered in a future briefing ) .
The Dow Jones industrial index is thus pushed up by wild speculation, combined with outright jerry-rigged fraud. While the foolish citizen is lured to think he will make a killing in this market, what will be killed is the citizens and his familys future.
vronsky.....
The articles that I read posted by yourself are good and VERY informative ( for a Yank.... hope your are not Polish ) . The isuues are there. With respect, why panick.... sh.. happens.
Aye Haggis.
Can find nothing on Platexco. Assume small canadian
exploration co with some concession here or Zimbabwe.
They are looking tn the right place.
For tolerant.
You asked about Tan Range
All I know is They acquired a little gold project
in Swaziland from JCI in exchange for 3 mill share
of tan range to JCI. 2.5mill canadian is payable on
completion of bankable feasibility study. Property
has at least 300,000 oz to as much as 700,000 oz.
They also bought Rio Tinto Swaziland for RTZ for
88,000 $ can ( not much hey? ) . If you like Swaziland,
Tan Range sounds like an interesting play but I dont
really care much about Swaziland, one way or the other.
I find it more plausible that oil could be used by some countries as a currency for the direct purchase of gold, bypassing the dollar altogether. This may be where the oil/gold commection is being made.
I think the most likely reality in this murky, mysterious link between oil/gold/dollar is that since the 70's the "powers that be" have found ways to keep the dollar "strong" so that the oil producers get what they consider fair value. A two-tier system for the dollar, like the situation we had in the 70's with our double gold standard ( double standard - notice the choice of words? ) -- when the dollar was "pegged" to the dollar, seems unlikely to me. I think we would have heard about it by now.
My guess regarding the recent increase in mideast oil production is that physical demand for oil is dropping, or is expected to drop. This is the reflexive model of G Soros, which says that production actually increases initially in response to reduced demand -- to keep revenues constant. We just saw this with computer memory chips. What worries me is that this is a sign that the Middle East oil producers may be having some financial difficulties. If so, we can expect more turmoil in the middle east very soon, I think. Of course there are other reasons to watch this part of the world. When black gold starts to rise again, I think, gold in US dollars will begin its rally, and the dollar will drop.
India's Rupee holding steady for the last week @ 38.50/40.40 to the $US.
Delivery notices today:
Gold: 6
Silver 60
FLOOR TRADER: "Gold has bottemed in Nov.-Dec. 33 out of the last 35 years before rallying in Jan. and Feb."
XAU ++1.51 on the highs 8:26 PST.
Say, has anyone seen Elvis around lately? How about JFK?
Where did you get your pre 1986 gold stock prices? I have scoured the net and cannot get historical Canadian or South African gold stock prices pre 1986. I know more about the price of gold pre 86 than I do about gold stocks. Thanks in advance
I would just like to add that with all the competative devaluations, etc. that anything manufactured will be very low in cost but anything coming from the earth ( housing, food, resources ) will start to become very dear. Maybe your fund should consider other valuable "commodities" like farm land, etc....
I have no idea how this exactly will happen but more and more one can see an argument for a two tiered currency system. One for man made things ( computers, cars, software ) and one for natural resources.
Another 15 trillion in private/corpoarate debt. Whats another 300 billion for Japanese bonds? I wonder -- did anyone think of asking the American people what they thought? Is congress just going to quietly raise the debt ceiling after we were told we would have a budget surplus this year?
cha-ching$$!$$~~~~~~~~~~~~good news in Cal
away...to drop off some puties ;- )
takingthemoneyrunnin'
go gold...go Broncos!
Impressive stuff from Blanchard. Maybe I
should take more interest in swaziland -
maybe I should move there -
But JCI has a big interest in the swazi
play - it having been theirs in the first
place then farmed out for stock in Tan.
So what happens now with JCI being eaten
alive by a toothless Lonrho - what a way to
go - also a rumour Khumalo may be fired ( for
giving away wes areas ?? )
Found out how to play pm markets - do the
OPPOSITE. If you want to buy - then SELL.
if you want to sell then BUY. remember
do the OPPOSITE. OR if you want to buy
silver then buy GOLD instead. Like NOW.
Also platinum has retested 392.5 so it
can either go up or collapse ( go up please )
Why don't we all see what we can find about the gold traders, or what G Soros is doing!
Of course, you are right that when the "chips are on the table" we may not have any of the guru's to ask. Then we are on our own, and I am as used to that situation I think as any on this site. One good indicator by the way is our ability to post. When Kitco is down, beware! That means gold may be going up, or down!
Ill be really surprised if gold moves up in
a real rally before it has fallen to 480 dmarks.
and come up from that base.
At current exchange rate, thats about 271 $.
But then - do the OPPOSITE -
PS what happened to karlito - who knows-
busy guy - flying - making speeches -
wanking ...
All: I don't know why everyone's nerves seem to be so sensitive this morning -- we don't even have any of our Kitcoite disruptors! I am just trying to convince myself that it is time to use some more of my dry powder, or to just hang in there -- no offense to anyone intended! Perhaps we are reaching the bottom of the Kitco well -- and that the gold bull is just about to be launched.
All: We must all think at least intermediate-long term on the buy signal -- more than a one month trend. Think of all the false two month or so gold rallies that we have had in the last few months. Gold should be behaving like silver.
chlorofluorocarbons ( CFC's ) into the atmosphere each day than mankind
has so far produced in all it's history. Firstly CFCs are complex hydrocarbons which have to be man made in any significant quantity. What volcanoes spew out is things like hydrogen chloride. ( It would be nice to find one that spewed out molten gold, but perhaps someone has since that would explain the falling price better than central bank sales )
This comment about Mt. Erebus appears to be wildly erroneous, as can be seen by referring to "CHLORINE IN THE ATMOSPHERE" ( http://zebu.uoregon.edu/text/ozone ) by Robert Parson, Associate Professor, Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado which says that:
Direct measurements on El Chichon, the largest eruption of the 1980's, and on Pinatubo, the largest since 1912, show that the volcanic contribution is small.
Claims that volcanoes produce more stratospheric chlorine than human activity arise from the careless use of old scientific estimates that have since been refuted by observation.
There is NO support whatsoever for the claim - found in Dixy Lee Ray's _Trashing the Planet_ - that a _single_ recent eruption produced ~500 times as much chlorine as a year's worth of CFC production. This wildly inaccurate number appears to have arisen from an editorial mistake in a scientific encyclopedia.
In an article in _21st Century_ ( July/August 1989 ) , Rogelio Maduro claimed that this Antarctic volcano has been erupting constantly for the last 100 years, emitting more than 1000 tons of chlorine per day. This claim was repeated in Dixy Lee Ray's books. "21st Century" is published by Lyndon LaRouche's political associates, although LaRouche himself usually keeps a low profile in the magazine. Mt. Erebus has in fact been simmering quietly for over a century but the estimate of 1000 tons/day of HCl only applied to an especially active period between 1976 and 1983. Moreover that estimate [Kyle et al.] has been since been reduced to 167 tons/day ( 0.0609 Mt/year ) . By late 1984 emissions had dropped by an order of magnitude, and have remained at low levels since; HCl emissions _at the crater rim_ were 19 tons/day ( 0.007 Mt/year ) in 1986, and 36 tons/day ( 0.013 Mt/year ) in 1991. [Zreda-Gostynska et al.] Since this is a passively degassing volcano ( VEI=1-2 in the active period ) , very little of this HCl reaches the stratosphere. The Erebus plume never rises more than 0.5 km above the volcano, and in fact the gas usually just oozes over the crater rim. Indeed, one purpose of the measurements of Kyle et al. was to explain high Cl concentrations in Antarctic snow. The only places where I have ever seen Erebus described as a source of stratospheric chlorine is in LaRouchian publications and in articles and books that, incredibly, consider such documents to be reliable sources.
This ( current ) rally is what I have been waiting for......yum, yum....to put on ANOTHER put spread. Perhaps this will be the last drive into the dirt ( from whence it came ) .....perhaps not......hmmmmmmm...i don't know/care~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
btw JohnD, I am rolling from your last post ( tee, hee ) ....and thanks for the Plat Picks...ohmy
away...from whence he came...
Lets say you are right -- and electronic money creationism is a fact. Will that prevent a deflationary collapse? Can anyone prevent the possible currency Tsunami? My answer is no. All that one can do with even this slight of hand is to delay the inevitable. Going back to engineering principles, the most powerful feedback system in the world will not work unless one knows the exact phase relationships between cause and effect at all times. I don't thick AG, as smart as he is, could pull this off. This degree of control can work against you very quickly if you get the timing wrong, and push when you should pull.
You should worry about your own investments too -- would it stop at creating dollars if the dollar creationism genie really got loose? Then gold coins would indeed be the only solution left, and ANOTHER would be right after all!
EB, good advise. Your last few posts have really been constructive--that helps us all.
As to the floor trader's comment on gold -- 33 out of 35 would be good odds in anything but gold, I think.
http://bos.business.uab.edu/data/data.htm
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/H6/hist/
http://rampages.onramp.net/~tsunami/datafiles/datafiles.htm
btw dude......I AM A GOLD BUG...I like gold....I do not hoard gold...nor do I spend every waking hour thinking of gold. I like to make money with gold so I can buy a few OZ's ( gonna buy some Philho's soon;- ) ) of it from time to time and take loooong vacations. If you like to buy gold for a 'rainy/stormy' day than might I suggest you buy this stuff all the way down. It is CHEAP, comparitively speaking. Gold is pretty...gold is shiny...I like shiny and pretty...that is all.
Thanks again for the pint....red cross and others bless you.
away...
looddonor
Great joke! Why did you choose a dead sheep? Golden Fleece? Now - no one wanted to stop to get the gold? I think we are all in need of some comic relief. A two year wait for a gold bug is about all I can take.
By the way, what Nationality are you comrade??? Do Svedan'ye
I guess what that means for us investors is that since few of the mine operators/financiers have adapted to the new times, we as investors should focus on the producers that already have low costs, as many of us have already. What odd times we live in!
What really worries me is that the "powers that be" are still locked in the "save the paper" mode, and might throw more gold out with the baby. The Central banks still have some of that precious to waste.
Pretty clear, isn't it that the IMF is broke, and that South Korea will soon have a negative stock index, if it could. Glad we don't live in S Korea. Think of all those people in SE Asia who are now saying to themselves that they should have bought gold, but it is now too late. But --- this news will probably not sink in to the average American -- however, others such as Europeans will be more likely to buy gold. Enough to tip the scales to convert the gold bear to a bull? -- perhaps!
Vronsky has made major contributions to this site -- you do not have to agree with everything that is said by anyone -- I don't. I would respectfully respond if one of my Kitcoites were told to go to a "witch doctor" -- but I would still respect the difference of opinion.
Don't assume that you can learn nothing from people who have ideas that are very different from yours. You will be the loser, not they.
To be honest, I am still very frustrated with astrology, as I can quantify little of it, except the planet/solartide/sunspot/earth weather connection. The market Fibonacci series Elliot Wave stuff is somehow tied to this. That's not new, as I think WDGann knew about some of it, and kept it secret all these years. I have not come accross the Astronomical/Human link yet, though I am convinced it exists. But -- I do know the fundamentals behind it have some truth under those centuries of human alteration -- much like how the Christian religion has changed since Christ walked the earth. One could say this about any religion. But -- I know that all the major religions on this earth have value, just as the major Astologies do. Mike Sheller is good at what he does, and if you listen carefully, he is humble -- he does admit he's wrong. And -- I don't understand most of what he says! I'm sure he says the same of me. However, I still listen to Mike Sheller because I know he knows something I don't know, and I think the feeling is mutual. I'm hoping that someday I will come accross the key data that will allow me to quantify the essence of astrology -- whatever it is will be much simpler than what it is now. My motivation is that I find the secret to intrastellar travel in a new physical principle. You see, I know from other sources of data that there is something major missing in our current understanding of quantum mechanics, and gravity. Something of great significance. I know I will not be the next Einstein to present this to the world -- I just want to make sure that someone does, and that humans have at least a fighting chace to travel to the stars. Think about what you may be missing. You will be a better person and a better gold investor if you do.
IMHO, JTF
G'Day from Kalgoorlie,
To put the record straight, Pegasus did not say "Screw you" to the Australian Government. The issue is that BAD corporate and mine planning have caused their demise, and the reality is that they are AT RISK of DEFAULT on US$353 million. The Mt Todd feasibility vs actual production did not balance, with 0.2 g/t of gold down on production, copper in the circuit causing excess cyanide consumption, power up 20%, and recoveries the order of 80% even with the four stage crushing circuit. The bottom line, too many eggs in the Mt Todd basket. They blew it.......
Aye, Haggis
When you go to the "Add a Comment", area, place the pointer in the text box and press [ctrl v]. The text will be pasted in the area.
In general, posting a link to the site is the preferred method. To do this, repeat the above procedure, except in the 'location' box at the top of your screen. You know that you did it 'right' when your post contains the highlighted link.
Anybody who has read Mike Sheller's posts would realize that astrology is but one arrow in his quiver. I have found Sheller's technical analysis ( using well respected "traditional" methods ) to be very sound time and again.
I have no faith in astrology and would not debate the point in any case. A belief, strongly held, will not succumb to words. I would also choose not to deride these beliefs, trusting that the charlatans will expose themselves, and the rest can do me no harm.
I have a short list of "must reads" on this site; people who, whenever they post, I will always stop to read. Mike Sheller has always been on that list. I have always found he has something to say, which is the highest form of praise I can think of for a site such as this. Additionally, he has offered a voice of calm and reason when the rest of us were biting and scratching. He has always comported himself a gentleman and is one of the finest members of this group. We can learn the high road well from our friend, and would be proud to call him thus.
G'Day from Kalgoorlie.
As a general rule of thumb, folk with gold tenements ALWAYS are eternal optimists and tend not to look at the current actual market value. To me, there are two schools - speculators in exploration who wish to make cash on the stock price and do not wish to produce metal, and secondly those who actually wish to produce metal. In the short and long term, it is the second group who will always win.
Aye, Haggis
When astrology was founded a millenia or two ago, the founders were not at all versed in astronomy. They assumed the night sky to be unchanging, save for the observed effects of earth's rotation, and its rotation about the sun. They totally overlooked the precession of the earth about the sun. Consequently, even the simple labels they applied to portions of the sky ( Libra, Capricorn, etc. ) are only grossly correct for 1/12th of the time every few hundred years. At the time Asimov's book was wriiten ( as I remember ) , astrologers were about 6 months out-of sync with astronomers. This would mean that a Sagitarius would in actuality be a Taurus! At some point in time the sky was as they described, but each passing day would add an error, until at some future time the sky was 180 degrees from where they say it should be. The errors continue to accumulate, until an equal time period later they were right back where they started.
One of the basic building blocks of their entire construct was based on ignorance of astronomy. What's worse is that it continues unabated to this day, promulgating the same erroneous analysis of the heavens, and their effects on this planet. Not only does the rock in front of your mailbox provide more graviational effects than a "line-up" of the planets, astrology has no idea where the planets are to begin with! It's an effect similar to when congress tried to legislate the value of PI to 3.00, "so as to make calculations easier . . ."
TTYL,
Niner
Enjoy!
http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/nmain.html
Generally, one can make a fairly accurate guess at the wee hours of the DJIA opening by studying the S&P Futures. Or have an idea of a Stock moving Up or Down by the Bid & Ask statistics. My question is this: Do they keep such data for Spot Bullion ( Gold ) anywhere ?
Or will it fold,like RJ's told,those of old,
Will it beam,and will it seem,it was all just a dream.
Or a nightmare,or a night out,or a break in the action,
To give some Anothers,a piece of the action.
Opportunity knocks,but so seldom,they say,
Is gold's present value,not long for the day?
Some people are buying,many people are talking,
Are you sure it's the gold in Asia there hawking/
Or T-Bills and paper,and things that"ll " see you later ",
As the turning point nears,for those with the fears.
On Gold!On Silver!On Donner!On Blitzen!
The masses are waiting,for a bottom,then a fixin.
When the direction is found,and if the hedges unwound,
No longer will they say " put old yeller in the ground ".
G'Day from Kalgoorlie.
The issues that you raise many have merits, but you appear to forget that GOLD DEMAND in 1997 is up 12% as reported by the World Gold Council. It appears the "real" problem is that caused by Futures and Derivative dealings in gold. There is a "vacuum" of at least 8 000 tonnes of gold ( three years world production ) which at some time has to be filled, hopefully soon. You cannot oversupply gold to the market.
An issue for consideration is wheither or not those dealing in derivatives have any form of self-regulating code of practice from within the derivatives market, which requires a degree of sobriety and self control among creators and the users of over the counter products. Looking at the way the gold price has been stamped down, it would appear the any code of practice does not exist. You must remember the NYMEX and COMEX is a "Club", you have to invited to join the party.
Aye, Haggis
My point is that the vast majority of astrological knowledge has been handed down through generations, when the knowledge of the heavens was far less accurate than it is now -- hence much of the historical stuff is fraught with inaccuracies -- or worse. That is why I'm trying to go back to the "raw data" as a Physicist would say. That is - by logging major historical events on the earth -- major changes in the weather, El Nino's historical comodity, market behavior,etc. All one needs to do is compare these to an Astronomical ephemeris and see if there are correlations. I have already found one with certain planets, the solar tides, sunspots, and the solar constant, hence the weather correlation, though weak. There may be others.
By the way what was in that little secret weapon you posted? Really did a number on my computer! Do I need to check my computer for anything?
I'm amazed that Mike Sheller can come up with anything, and yet he does!
Mike - someday I hope you will tell me how you can make sense out of all this -- you will save me and others alot of work if you do.
Not to worry, I would never distribute anything harmful. I DO know that you did everything but click the "yes" button, however! ;- ) You might try it again, and be sure to read the screen before proceeding! Hundreds of us have fallen victim to the little joke, but it does absolutely nothing to your computer, only the ( male ) operator's ego . . .
I am not sure what an ephemeris is. If you would care to, you could email me some sort of example of an analysis based on astrological ephemeris so I could peruse it. ( kkemski@q-net.net ) In the meantime, I intend to keep looking for Asimov's book, and will pass along the title if/when I find it.
BTW, $280 has been offering good resistance - I am starting to think we'll never see sub-$200 this go-around - but I've been wrong before.
Reasons for gold up:
1 ) EURO - Don't need to support the US dollar anymore, because EURO deadline coming up? I think the practical end point for the Euro is around April 98, though I don't have a solid reason why, given the official "go live" is 1/1/99. Do they have a deadline after which the debt, etc numbers don't matter?
2 ) European central ( EURO ) bank to have gold? I think that was the message, though I'm not sure that's official.
3 ) Gold loans dropping, or at least not going up? SBC,UBS stop gold loans, and merge. ( Must have been working together for some time! Would have loved to be a fly-on-the-wall! )
4 ) Swiss not to sell gold for at least ten years
5 ) Buying frenzy in Dubai== Perception of a bottom?
6 ) Mike Stewarts gold stock McClellan oscillator at a record low
7 ) Food buying Frenzy in Korea -- gold price up 60% in local currency
- perception that they should have had gold saved for emergencies?
Reasons for gold going down:
1 ) dropping or weaking commodity price index
2 ) CB's still selling?
3 ) During a market correction, gold pushed down to discourage "flight to safety? If no correction, gold probably not pushed down.
4 ) Deflation in US. Not likely for long, given behavior of money supply, though long lead time likely.
5 ) Europe wants to keep dollar strong -- favorable balance of trade?
Wait till EURO fully launched before letting up?
6 ) Financial crisis? Gold conduit to Central banks in crisis via LBMA?
7 ) Some Central banks wish to buy or loan gold, but trading strategy got away from them? Traders still active, or shorts weakening?
MY COMMENT: Sounds like a desperate call for help! Also this is not what you would expect Mahathir ( sp? ) to say, is it?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971215/asean_4thld_picture_1.html
go bonckos!!! er.....Broncos
away...to the charts..and the game, pero claro!
bowingtothegreatcallbylgboob....yawn....howboring...ugh....notagain...andagain.....andagain...snorezzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...
oh hell D.A. who am I fooling....th ebottom will fall right outta this thing.....there won't be a battle. The bulls will fold....just like they will Wednesday night against the Lakers........eh Ted?!?!?~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19971215/ROBFront/RCOMM.html
away...to tamle time...yum,yum
be in virtuous circle - OECD
OECD slashes world growth forecast
Table: Breakdown of OECD economic outlook
forecasts
OTTAWA ( Reuters ) - The Canadian economy, still finding
itself with ample slack, may find itself in a virtuous circle as
job growth and substantial economic growth feed on each
other, the economic think-tank OECD said on Monday.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development said in its semi-annual survey of member
states that Canadian growth has continued to gather
momentum as low interest rates fuel business and
household spending.
It raised its projection for the country's real Gross
Domestic Product growth in 1998 to 3.5 percent from the
3.4 percent it had forecast in mid-November in a special
report on Canada. It pegged 1997 growth at 3.6 percent
and 1999 at 3.3 percent.
"Buoyant activity, combined with ongoing fiscal
retrenchment at all levels of government, has resulted in the
first budget surplus since the early 1970s," it said.
"The pick-up in output has translated into healthy job
creation, and there are indications that improving labor
market conditions are helping to establish a 'virtuous circle'
of stronger employment growth leading to increased
confidence, higher household incomes, and continued
overall economic expansion," it said.
It added that given ample slack in product and labor
markets and given strong capital spending, there was scope
for "robust non-inflationary growth" in coming quarters.
But inflationary pressure might emerge if the pace of
economic activity did not moderate to the extent the OECD
was projecting.
Canada had more room for manoeuver due to the
improved fiscal situation and fundamentals, but the OECD
pointed to risks both of a slowdown or inflation.
"On the one hand, it could be premature to assume that a
self-sustaining expansion is assured," it said, explaining "that
liquidity constraints or asset price reversals could lead to
household retrenchment.
"On the other hand, a continued improvement in
employment and income trends could further fuel consumer
confidence and unleash pent-up demand.
"This could entail inflation pressure, requiring a stronger
rise in interest rates than assumed and leading to a more
cyclical outlook for the economy."
The OECD said the recent deterioration in the current
account probably overstated the underlying situation, since
demand shifted towards industrial machinery and cars,
boosting imports, while exports were affected by temporary
problems in the motor vehicle industry.
It projected long-term federal bond rates falling from 7.5
percent in 1996 to 6.5 percent this year and 6.2 percent in
1998 and in 1999. Ninety-day finance company paper was
seen rising to 4.1 percent next year and 4.5 percent in 1999
from 3.4 percent in 1997 and compared with 4.4 percent in
1996.
"Given favorable economic fundamentals, Canadian
long-term interest rates are assumed to remain broadly
unchanged despite the projected increase in comparable
U.S. rates, implying some widening in the negative
differential that has emerged recently," it said.
be in virtuous circle - OECD
OECD slashes world growth forecast
Table: Breakdown of OECD economic outlook
forecasts
OTTAWA ( Reuters ) - The Canadian economy, still finding
itself with ample slack, may find itself in a virtuous circle as
job growth and substantial economic growth feed on each
other, the economic think-tank OECD said on Monday.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development said in its semi-annual survey of member
states that Canadian growth has continued to gather
momentum as low interest rates fuel business and
household spending.
It raised its projection for the country's real Gross
Domestic Product growth in 1998 to 3.5 percent from the
3.4 percent it had forecast in mid-November in a special
report on Canada. It pegged 1997 growth at 3.6 percent
and 1999 at 3.3 percent.
"Buoyant activity, combined with ongoing fiscal
retrenchment at all levels of government, has resulted in the
first budget surplus since the early 1970s," it said.
"The pick-up in output has translated into healthy job
creation, and there are indications that improving labor
market conditions are helping to establish a 'virtuous circle'
of stronger employment growth leading to increased
confidence, higher household incomes, and continued
overall economic expansion," it said.
It added that given ample slack in product and labor
markets and given strong capital spending, there was scope
for "robust non-inflationary growth" in coming quarters.
But inflationary pressure might emerge if the pace of
economic activity did not moderate to the extent the OECD
was projecting.
Canada had more room for manoeuver due to the
improved fiscal situation and fundamentals, but the OECD
pointed to risks both of a slowdown or inflation.
"On the one hand, it could be premature to assume that a
self-sustaining expansion is assured," it said, explaining "that
liquidity constraints or asset price reversals could lead to
household retrenchment.
"On the other hand, a continued improvement in
employment and income trends could further fuel consumer
confidence and unleash pent-up demand.
"This could entail inflation pressure, requiring a stronger
rise in interest rates than assumed and leading to a more
cyclical outlook for the economy."
The OECD said the recent deterioration in the current
account probably overstated the underlying situation, since
demand shifted towards industrial machinery and cars,
boosting imports, while exports were affected by temporary
problems in the motor vehicle industry.
It projected long-term federal bond rates falling from 7.5
percent in 1996 to 6.5 percent this year and 6.2 percent in
1998 and in 1999. Ninety-day finance company paper was
seen rising to 4.1 percent next year and 4.5 percent in 1999
from 3.4 percent in 1997 and compared with 4.4 percent in
1996.
"Given favorable economic fundamentals, Canadian
long-term interest rates are assumed to remain broadly
unchanged despite the projected increase in comparable
U.S. rates, implying some widening in the negative
differential that has emerged recently," it said.
Also this clearly shows where the focus will be in the US if we have similar problems -- the financial system. The stock market is secondary, because if the financial system goes, so does the stock market anyway.
It seems that all the Porpoises on Earth got fed up with all of our ( human ) antics and decided to go to another planet. If you are able to communicate with your Whale friends ( whom I thought were now visiting Ted ) please ask them if we are worth saving. If you see any extraterrestrial craft big enough for a whale landing in the water, and none for human size passengers, it may be a bad sign for us humans. Please let us Kitcoites know what you find out.
Seriously, what internet service provider do you have? Do you know of any in Cairns? I don't know exactly where sharefin lives, but you probably do. He is in sore need of another ISP pronto. I miss his great graphs too!
You forecast tirelessly that the gold price will fall.
You press this point relentlessly. You stay at a site
that is clearly for people who are interested in gold
and think it will go up.
Please tell me why you do this ??
What are your investments. Are you long the s/p?
or short gold? or long silver??
Are you trying to save all of us from ourselves ??
What are your motives ?? and what are those
speeches you are making about??
What you say is predictable and tiresome. But your
agenda fascinates me. Who do you work for??
for farfel
Hurrah for whoever wrote that letter on Munk. Munk
is smart. No question. Its his shareholders that I have
doubts about.
For golddkm.
Yes Vaal Fregold Kloof all under 500 mill market
cap. Sounds cheap hey. With ABX at 6500 mill. Do you
believe that ABX is worth 4 times as much as Vaal,
Kloof, and freegold put together??? It shows the
effect that a steady diet of hype and horse hockey
will have on the Western mind.
Question: By what authority can the Fed and Treasury bail out the U.S. stock market and the world financial system?
Answer: The Monetary Control Act of 1980.
What is the Monetary Control Act of 1980? The November 1982 issue of MIA, featured an article entitled " The Anatomy of An Inflationary Bailout"
On March 21, 1980, the U.S. Congress passed by a vote of 380 to 13, with little fanfare or publicity, "The Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980." Strongly backed by the Carter Administration and the Fed, the Monetary Control Act was described as a "technical banking bill which would phase out Regulation Q and gradually raise interest rates payable to small savers." Most Congressmen never even read this "technical" banking bill. As it turns out, the Monetary Control Act is potentially the most inflationary piece of legislation ever passed by any country in the history of the world, giving the U.S. Fed the legal status of "LENDER OF LAST RESORT TO THE ENTIRE WORLD.
Six key points of the ACT and how they are being ( or may soon be ) applied is listed below:
A ) THE FED CAN MONITIZE MUNICIPAL BONDS AND FOREIGN DEBT [Section 105 ( 2 ) ] - The Act changes what constitutes a legal reserve for the banking system so that effective June 1, 1981, the Open Market Committee of the Fed became able to expand the money supply by purchasing ( in addition to U.S. Treasury Paper ) : ( 1 ) revenue bonds; ( 2 ) warrants with a maximum of six months maturity issued in anticipation of the receipt of taxes or revenues by ANY state, county, district, political subdivision, or municipality, including irrigation, reclamation and drainage districts; ( 3 ) All obligations of foreign governments or their agencies; ( 4 ) obligations of foreign banks IF they are guaranteed by the bank's government.
By the end of August 1982, the Fed had used the foreign debt purchase ( bailout ) provision of the Monetary Control Act 70 times! The paper is bought on the open market in Western Europe with the Fed Bank of Boston used as primary buyer. ( The Richmond, Kansas City, and Philadelphia banks have also been recent buyers. ) Total foreign debt bought by the Fed under the Act by the end of 1981 was $3.3 billion.
It is likely that the Act is being used to purchase the debt of the Mexican government and its banks. This is the primary reason our highly exposed money center bankers and the Fed pushed the Mexican government to nationalize the Mexican banks. The Fed could not buy their paper under the Act unless it was guaranteed by the Mexican government. This just proves that all is fair in love, war, and international finance.
This provision of the Act makes the Fed the lender of last resort for the entire world and is probably why the Fed proposed the new $25 billion international bailout fund in September. All of the finance ministers of the world have copies of the Act and probably know this section verbatim.
U.S. corporations and banks per se are not covered by this section, ( they are covered by the Omnibus Banking Bill and H. Con. Res. 290 ) . However, if the U.S. government guarantees a corporation's paper ( i.e., Chrysler ) then the FED CAN MONITIZE IT!
B ) UNLIMITED QUANTITIES OF CASH WITH NO COLLATERAL AT REGIONAL FED BANKS [Section 105 ( 6 ) ( B ) ] - Collateral shall not be required for the Federal Reserve Notes which are held in the vaults of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. Therefore billions of dollars in cash can be stored in the regional Fed banks for emergency distribution, in case of a bank run.
C ) THE FED CAN WAIVE THE RESERVE REQUIREMENTS TO ZERO [Section 103 ( 2 ) ( D ) ( 3 ) ] - The Fed can suspend ( with a vote of only five board members ) all reserve requirements in the banking system for 180 days, and then another 180 days, and then another, and another, etc. In other words, the reserves can be reduced to ZERO by the Fed, making infinite credit expansion now legal.
D ) BANK HOLIDAYS [Section 705B ( 2 ) ( 6 ) ( 1 ) ] - Bank holidays, in the event of a natural calamity, riot, insurrection, war, or other emergency, can be declared on a state-by-state basis or region-by-region basis at the discretion of the Comptroller of the Currency, a State, or designated State officials.
E ) ALL DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS UNDER FED LENDING UMBRELLA [Section 103 ( 7 ) ] - All "depository institutions" ( all banks, all S&L's, all credit unions, etc ) are brought under the jurisdiction of the Fed and can now borrow from the Fed's discount window in an emergency. [Ed. Note: The title of the bill is "Deregulation" whereas the bill institutes new "Regulation" of all depository institutions - a classic use of the 1984-style Orwellian "double think.]"] All depository institutions were placed under the Fed's control, with the distinction between Fed members and non-members thus erased.
F ) MINIMUM BANK RESERVE REQUIREMENTS SHARPLY LOWERED - This will create an additional $18 billion in lendable funds by 1984.
Conclusion: Under the Monetary Control Act of 1980, the Federal Reserve System is given total control over all U.S. financial institutions and the legal authority during some future ( or current ) banking crisis to literally hyperinflate both currency and credit in order to bail out Mexico, Poland, and other defaulting international debtors. [Ed note: This may now include all of Asia.] The inflationary implications are horrendous! The U.S. Federal Reserve is now the LENDER OF LAST RESORT FOR THE ENTIRE WORLD!
The coming world deflation ( or deflationary depression ) could ultimately turn into an inflationary depression ( at least in America ) as the U.S. Fed, acting as the world's lender of last resort, hyperinflates the U.S. dollar in its efforts to bail out the entire world. In that event, gold ( and silver ) might be the only financial assets to survive.
Find out more about Kitco at info@kitco.com, or call 1-800-363-7053.
Copyright © 1996 Kitco Minerals & Metals Inc.
REAL GOOD PLACE IF YOU ARE ONE OF THE OTHER SEVEN.........