This may be better than posting graphs, which may be hard to read.
I could also post the raw sunspot data if you would prefer that, and you could compare to the world market of your choice. Please let me know what you would like!
Not a climber, no. Walked to the top of Mt. St. Helen's back when I was a kid and it still had a top. All my mountain climbing has been of the climbing into the ski lift variety. Yet, I am fascinated by the people who go through such suffering and pain to stand exhausted atop a mound for a few minutes knowing that they have just reached the halfway point and it is still a long way down.
There is a debate going on presently about the wisdom and the ethics of guided expeditions. Both Hall and Fischer were professional high altitude climbing guides who, for upwards of $65K per head, would escort clients to the summit. Many of these guided clients are accomplished mountaineers in their own right, but there are some who do not belong on that particular mountain. Above 26K feet is known as the Dead Zone, where hypoxia addles the brain and cognitive functions are shallow and not to be trusted. Even those who use supplemental oxygen suffer these effects. The mixture is thin and breathing supplemental oxygen at 29K feet is the same as no bottled gas at 26K feet. If you or I were flown to 26K feet and dropped off, we would die within minutes, not having spent the weeks of climatization necessary to reach a summit such as Everest.
I have learned that among climbers there is a certain aesthetic to be striven for; its less important that you reach the top than how you reach the top. These are the climbers, Like Ed Viesters, who summit without unnecessary aids. These are the poets of the mountains; these are the men and women who climb for the beauty and challenge and, ultimately, the ones who survive the try.
What creative action did you have in mind? An inquiring miner wants to know.
Signed
An over 50 mining exec
Thank you for your thinking thru of my
posts. I am told that you are on target.
Understand that using oil to back gold instead
of the US$ is but one of several outcomes
affecting the gold market at this time. This
will be the final move as the currencies are
destroyed. Gold at a much higher dollar price,
as a result of oil/backing, will allow most
paper economies to continue in operation.
Gold will, in fact, become a world oil
currency and be of national importance to all
countries. In the same way that all oil in the
middle east ( and most other major producing
countries ) is nationally owned for the good of
all, gold in the ground will be deemed a
currency reserve for the good of all.
During this time all other metals ( and paper
investments ) will fail to hold value. Access to
oil and gold will be next in line of importance
behind food.
CB leasing/ lending is winding down as
thoughts are changing. With the oil states
going more to physical there is no point in
maintaining the paper gold market. UBS was
the first to be cut free. If you do not have
physical yet, it will cost perhaps 100% more
after the turn, if available at all. If the paper
fire in ASIA burns too hot, at some point
gold will not be supplied even before the
turn!
My guess is that the world and the US markets will survive this crisis, but at the cost of increased inflation. US interest rates cannot go up at this time because of the risk of fanning SEAsian flames.
My question to you is namely, could certain countries simply be using oil and gold as a substitute for dollars, rather than to supplement dollar-based purchases with gold? This would make sense to me, as I see no evidence that oil is fixed in terms of the US dollar.
I have another question -- What do you see the oil-consuming nations doing when they find the price of oil rising in dollar terms? This will not happen, I think this winter because of reduced demand for oil, and its increased production, but it will happen.
I have always maintained that oil as a nonrenewable resource should be conserved for its most useful function -- the building block of chemicals in industry. It is much to valuable to be used for fuel.
Now, I thought you were going to tell us that the pilot told the passengers that he blew up the engine on the other side so that the plane could fly straight!
All may not be lost - the low I have is Jan 31.
Interday low of 351 - close of 352.5. Action for Dec 15
on future ( same basis ) was 352 close and 350.5
interday low. So we're only under by about half a buck
on the Future ( spot is a different story ) .
Also in yen, I have support at 45000 PLUS a magic
Gann line for what that's worth at about the same level.
So yen support should cut in at 45000/131= 343 at the
worst.
This is the optimistic view. I make no promises. Cross
fingers.
Technology innovations in the 1920s increased the publics interest in the stock market. With a radio and a telephone, even small investors could gather investment data, phone their brokers, and have trades executed on the SAME DAY! ( Instant gratification! ) These two tools were critical components of the meteoric rise in the stock market. Previously, if you wanted to purchase securities, you would handle these transactions by mail, and wait, and wait.
In the 1990s, we have the Internet and the Personal Computer. Although the technology is different, these tools are having exactly the same type of psychological impacts on investors. Lets hope that we have different results!
Woops - there goes one support - yen support should cut in at
45,000 yen - Lets hope it does better than 352$ did.
And remember - DO the OPPOSITE !!
He predicts a rally in 1998 in the context of a developing global bear market. Growth rates for business will decline, leading ultimately to reduced liquidity,and then recession. The cardinal characteristic of governments, business and individuals will be decreasing ability to service debt. As alert investors take shelter in the short end of the yield curve, long rates soar. His research shows a 25% increase in the price of gold over the 2 years subsequent to a crash.
It's important to note that his conclusions are based on only 2 previous examples of financial asset bubbles. The similarities are remarkable, however. He notes that in each case, central bankers or their equivalents were lauded as geniuses in the period preceding the crash. He also says that each bubble is truly a new era in that the usual pattern is not followed. One example is the failure of tangibles to increase at the end of the cycle. ( One reason to be cautious about the Cdn.$ here ) .
Does anyone know Hoye's work?
Those who prophesy by the stars,
Those who predict by the new moons,
Stand up and save you from what will come upon you.
Behold, they have become like stubble,
Fire burns them,
They cannot deliver themselves from the power of the flame"
Isaiah 47:12-13
Just one prophet's opinion, but if the Creator of the stars says the stars are not an accurate guide, who am I to argue?
If you want to make yourselves feel better much
better then look at a chart of gold in stirling !
Look like the downtrend channel has just been
penetrated to the up side and a bottom has been formed
and tested.
Gold in stirling is not stupid. Mainland european
currencies are all suspect because of the Euro
uncertainty. That leaves stirling or swiss as the
strong european currency. UK gilt rates are high
plus the swiss are in heavy flak over nazi gold
and the attendant propaganda.
So stirling should be the strong currency and the
best way to look at gold ( other than in $ ) - IMHO.
Try it, you'll like it.
Delivery notices today:
Gold 332 total 6,504
Silver 62 total 8,857
What I need from you is a source that demystifies astrology, as it is clear that you, after years of study in this murky field have come up with a relation between cause and effect. You see, you must have made what I would call measurements, or assembled data, or you could not use ( your version of ) Astrology at all!
I apologize if I sounded like I do not believe in Astrology, and hence am missing something. What I believe in is analysis of models of reality -- one does not create a model of reality and stick with it -- one keeps changing the model to make if fit better. You have a model of reality -- but somehow you an I are not able to relate what you and I have -- yet. But I know it will come -- and we will both benefit. Why don't you post your e-mail site -- I would be glad to tell you what I have learned from the Crook stuff too -- very interesting -- I wonder what is not quantized ( cyclic ) .
I am wondering if cycles in time are actually reality folding back on itself! Is that metaphysical enough for you?
Anyone check out Quote.com this morning?
Gold spiked up to 297.5 at 10:19 this morning.
It's showing up on all the charts ( even the daily ) .
Any care to comment?
My biggest fear is that the US markets twitch, and someone sells gold to prevent the "flight to safety", or some key central bank needs help - leading to more gold loans or sales. AG will consider the survival of the world's currencies much more important than the stock market, or the gold producers.
However we could act as a "seed" of knowledge when the time comes. Hope it comes gracefully, for all of our sakes.
The topics we discuss on this site bother me at times -- especially the financial secrets most of the human world knows nothing about. All these fires that the financial guru's of the world must put out, or risk igniting the world's ( paper ) financial system. ANOTHER is right about one thing -- there will be a big financial ( dollar ) crisis eventually -- maybe not this year though, or even the next.
By the way, if you think the Silver rally is far from over, this portends well for the gold rally that we Kitcoites are sitting on the edge of our chairs waiting for! A collapse of the Silver rally would have the opposite effect, I'm sure!
Perhaps more experienced technical types can reason this better.
Platinum has traditionally been dependent on the Japanese trade for actual sales, which are 6/7 absorbed in their jewelry trade. Is this holding true these days? If not, this is probably the source of the current weakness. Looks like a buying opportunity ahead.
If this is indeed the time for the great bull market to end, the paper mountains may crumble to the tune of rising gold which strikes the fear of inflation into paper traders' hearts.
Chaos theory suggests that the minutest stimulus can start major changes in train, and the financial systems have much of interest to the chaos theorist. Periods of relative calm, followed by unpredictable rapid change. "Noisy" signals, i.e. prices. Attractors... support/resistance levels. Even without chaos, for systems at the point of equilibrium, such as a stone thrown up in the air, their movement slows to a stop and exhibits zero rate of change just before the dramatic reversal. It is in the nature of unstable things at the cusp, like a great rock balanced on its tip, that the great movement may be set off in a given direction by a gentle push; the "wings of the butterfly" or the "last straw that breaks the camel's back".
A small uplift in demand for gold may be all that it takes, after the price has been bouncing along the bottom for a number of weeks. Here then, is a possible trigger that connects in its timing with current market conditions:
In the first quarter of 1997, gold demand in Saudi Arabia increased by 44% to a record 68 tonnes. This was to a significant extent encouraged by higher oil prices and a lower gold price. What then, of 1998, with present gold prices and a financial fire storm in Asia! The demand was especially strong during the Eid season at the end of Ramadan, the lunar month of fasting when Muslims must practice self-restraint according to their religion.
Note: The next Ramadan starts on December 31st, 1997!
The Eid season is marked by major festival days: one called Eid-Al-Fitr, the festival of breaking the fast, which is celebrated on the first day after the conclusion of Ramadan ( January 29th in 1998 ) , the second is Eid-Al-Adha, or the festival of sacrifice, which is celebrated on the tenth day of the third lunar month after Ramadan and marks the conclusion of the annual pilgrimage ( Hajj ) to Mecca. ( April 8th in 1998 ) .
This could be seen as a desirable way to break the fasting, for those hungry for gold! But gold trading may not take place during the holiday periods ( the Eid Al-Fitr holiday is a ten day holiday from the end of Ramadan to the start of the tenth month, and the Eid Al-Adha holiday lasts from the fifth to the fifteenth of the twelfth month ) as business activity ceases for approximately one week during these holidays, so keep that in mind for your market timing.
The importance of gold to Muslims can be illustrated by the example of the Zakat wealth tax, which must be paid to poor and needy Muslims by all Muslims who have saved at least the equivalent of 85g of 24 carat Gold. And why would Muslims be especially hungry for gold? The importance of gold as real money will be appreciated by those Muslims who have seen the paper currencies crash and burn in Asia in recent months- there are quite a few Muslims in Asia.
Once the demand for gold picks up, in a market primed for action, the scenario of rapid gold price appreciation may unwind, and surprise! as gold warehouses admit they have not sufficient gold to cover gold that is traded but not physically delivered and it is said, only 1% covered by deliverable gold in the warehouses. Those that have wisdom have already made arrangements for holding that which can not be consumed by the heat of fire.
Bre-X saga the tarnish on a lousy year for gold explorers
TORONTO ( CP ) - It's one call to his stockbroker Greg Chorny will never forget."Junior companies are having a dickens of a job raising the capital to carry out their exploration and development work because of the Bre-X mess," Ketchen said. "Compared to what it has been in years past, it is 10 times more difficult trying to raise capital today."
Making matters worse is the price of gold, which has taken a beating in recent weeks as European countries debate the merits of using it to support their currencies. Argentina sold off its reserves earlier this month and Switzerland has announced similar plans.
Still, Canada's junior mining sector is still afloat and will survive a difficult 1997, said Vancouver gold analyst Doug Leishmann.
As a result, the junior mining sector isn't likely to be getting any support from investors like Chorny for a while. "I certainly won't be going back for a long time," he said. "I'd have a much better chance at the blackjack tables in Las Vegas.
BTW, I'm not an astrological investor nor a chartist. I count the number of silver rings on the wooly bear caterpillers in the back yard. ; )
I've just never figured out how to upload one of the darned things. I guess I could stick it to a floppy disc with a magnet? NOT.
But if you want to look at charts, the $US/silver one is interesting for if you set it for November and December. http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/ ( main page )
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html ( single plot )
As we all know, it was not, and I suspect that there are many out there with substantial losses. So, I can see where it might be hard to justify pouring good money after bad. But let me remind you, that as a metals investor you are somewhat of a rare breed to start with. If you felt that $400 represented a buying opportunity then how, now at $283, can you be letting your doubts overcome you? There's been much talk about Central Bank's selling gold. If my math is correct, $300B buys all gold in Central Banks. $1.2T buys all gold on the face of the earth. The time is coming soon when the shorts will reverse themselves, as enevita
As we all know, it was not, and I suspect that there are many out there with substantial losses. So, I can see where it might be hard to justify pouring good money after bad. But let me remind you, that as a metals investor you are somewhat of a rare breed to start with. If you felt that $400 represented a buying opportunity then how, now at $283, can you be letting your doubts overcome you? There's been much talk about Central Bank's selling gold. If my math is correct, $300B buys all gold in Central Banks. $1.2T buys all gold on the face of the earth. The time is coming soon when the shorts will reverse themselves, as enevita
away...to the charts
crossingfingersandtoesohmy
http://router.minot.com/~bohl/ go to Feb gold Daily....what's it look like?.....ugh...... ( big Smile ) .... ( wink mailed ) ..... ( more smiles ) ~~~~~~~~~~~~!
Don't know where you are, but Mammoth Lakes is in the Sierra
in eastern CENTRAL California. While the area has shown indications
potential volcanic activity, it has done so for years. The danger of
such an event with a Mt. St. Helen's-type ash fall is that it may
blanket the nation's most productive food basket, the San Joaquin
Valley, and ruin it forever. Of course, the ash fall could just drift over Nevada and become a different type of fallout on nuclear test
sites.
G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.
farfel, why don't you change your name to FARFETCHED. Have you been part of NASA's Mars programme? Have you just returned from there?!
You should do some homework and get your facts right, opinions really do not matter.
Aye, Haggis
G'day,
Laddie, do us ALL a favour, change your name. "FARFETCHED" really suits you.
Aye, Haggis
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/971216/rea_gold_bissett_min_1.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971216/ny_precious_metals_e_1.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971216/markets_precious_1st_1.html
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html
If the present Asian Gold rise carries on into U.S. trading tonight, there will be a double bottom on the $US 1x3 P&F Chart. If you check out the chart you will see it will occur at a very interesting position, just below the downtrend line.
On other matters:
Here's why Japan has zoomed up 800 points
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971216/instant_view_japan_1.html
And here's some more on the meetings between German Finance Minister Waigel with Greenspan, Rubin, and Clinton
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971216/u_s_germany_agree_i_1.html
Waigel has already met Rubin and Greenspan, will meet IMF head Camdessus tonight, and is meeting Clinton tomorrow.
Of course, the interesting items of discussion are the ones which will NOT be reported on.
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html
If the present Asian Gold rise carries on into U.S. trading tonight, there will be a double bottom on the $US 1x3 P&F Chart. If you check out the chart you will see it will occur at a very interesting position, just below the downtrend line.
On other matters:
Here's why Japan has zoomed up 800 points
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971216/instant_view_japan_1.html
And here's some more on the meetings between German Finance Minister Waigel with Greenspan, Rubin, and Clinton
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971216/u_s_germany_agree_i_1.html
Waigel has already met Rubin and Greenspan, will meet IMF head Camdessus tonight, and is meeting Clinton tomorrow.
Of course, the interesting items of discussion are the ones which will NOT be reported on.
Find out more about Kitco at info@kitco.com, or call 1-800-363-7053.
Copyright © 1996 Kitco Minerals & Metals Inc.
Can't help Nick the sharefinarator in Cairns, would if could. He is several thousand km away and across a large ditch. They even speak a different tongue over there, it's called 'strine, I think they learned it off the roos, eh Nick@C?
Sunspots JTF? you done it with sunspots? Lets, do some sleight of fingers, from 1900 to todaythat's about 100 years, periodicity of sunspots ( some cobwebby memory says 11 years? ) so from here in math gets this, approx 9 or 10 periods of intense spot activity affecting stock prices in past century? What are these time periods? I'd have to say that 1971/1972 must be there. So too, '87. hummm...
Are there any periods of non-correlation you have found? Where there is sunspot activity but the ants ( thats us ) just go about merrily on their way? I hope you will share more of your findings.