Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 17 1997 00:04 - ID#24140)
Oh, I went to the animal fair, and all the MUNKS were there !!
for farfel

I agree completely that Mr Munk has been harmful to the gold price

and to the industry.

But I do believe you're starting to repeat yourself on this point

(Wed Dec 17 1997 00:18 - ID#402183)
Greetings from Nevada. I take it from your posts that you are a geologist in WA. I'm a poor ol' wore out rock pounder here in the Great Basin. Have enjoyed your posts. Go gold.


(Wed Dec 17 1997 00:21 - ID#256201)
Correct me if I am mistaken, but I believe it was LGB who first referred to the BET polls re: Ron Brown and OJ.
Admittedly there has been quite some interchange between them. I suspect it has ended by now.
BTW, sure hope farfel's problem with his machine is repaired before any noteworthy events occur in the PM markets. It was exceptionally difficult getting into Kitco tonite. Was it the same for you?

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 17 1997 00:21 - ID#24140)
acCentuate de positive - Eliminate de negative
for all

In currencies - I repeat

Look at gold in stirling - Broken out of steep and

narrow down trend channel from October 1. Also

double bottomed at 171 pounds. Rally could carry as

high as 315$.

Plat - look in yen not $. 43000 big support - that

means NOW.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 00:23 - ID#20137)
The BEST sign is ...
Kitco is slower than molasses in January and is acting very strange ( triple posts are nothing anyone ) . We will have to wait until London opens and then until comex opens - it may be very sweet this time.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 00:37 - ID#255151)
To All

For the first time in many years, I have Dec.20 to Dec. 30 off, including Christmas Eve and Christmas day.. Gonna a take a much needed R&R. See you all Dec. 31st!-- Merry Christmas and a PROSPEROUS 1998 to all--APH, auroelf, Arden, aj, CrystallBall, George Cole, aurator, Nick of Canberra, Nick @Aussie Nee sharefin, Kiwi, Steve of Perth, JIN, coleen Blonde, nailz, Ted, Mike Sheller, poorboys, Stradmaster, 6pak, Earl, Eldorado, hepcat-nee-friends of small pets-, shek, Savage, Speed, BillinOregon, Mooney, Ted Butler, milhouse, Vronsky, Bill Buckler, tarnished, Claude Courmier, Big Trader, ANOTHER, MoneyBags ( remember him? ) , DA, DJ, B, RJ, LGB, Steve Puetz, tolerant 1, cherokee, JTF, BART!, and all Lurkers and Posters. See you all after Christmas!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 00:42 - ID#225283)
George S, Cole

Are you related to Connie Cole by any chance?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 00:42 - ID#398105)
Haulpack in Nevada

G'Day Haulpack,

Well, the Aussie gold mining scene is ticking SLOWLY along, waiting for the UP side. Trying to get exploration portfolios off the ground in 1997 has been VERY difficult, if not impossible. Every dog has his day, hopefully it will not be in favour of "FARFETCHED" farfel.... you certainly do breed them in the USA?!

You should convince your Company to send you to the "Diggers and Dealers" Conference in Kalgoorlie in early July 98. This forum is a gate way to the Western Australian exploration and mining scene. For North American companies who wish to invest in Western Australia there are GOOD opportunities, given the current share prices of WA companies. "FARFETCHED" farfel could even learn something himself. "Diggers and Dealers" can be sourced via Altavista.

Yes, I am a Geologist, three university degrees, twenty two years experience, ten in Africa and twelve in Australia: range of comm

(Wed Dec 17 1997 00:47 - ID#238422)
@John Disney
John, I recall posting to you a week or two weeks ago that Russians
could be selling what I call "unaccounted" platinum, which I thought
has been a reason for drop in platinum price below "expected" level.

It was finally noticed by traders today - look at KITCO NEWS,

At this time I expect these spot sales to end for a while. I think
they sold a lot of platinum to some big trader... My feeling that
these bad Russians are out of "unaccounted" ( unaccounted by market )
platinum for now, so prices will probably stabilize and may rise
a little bit ( up to 10-12% ) in a near term. However, I expect that
they may soon find another little stockpile, and it will come not
from Norilsk.

To tell you the truth, I do not know where it will come from,
but I do know that Russia has so called "reserves" of different
materials, that were intented to be used in case of "big war". Also,
their chemical industry may still have some "old reserves" of scrap
platinum, which they could refine and sell.

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 17 1997 00:57 - ID#294232)
Canadian Dollar Down Again!!!!
Posted my concerns over the Canadian Currency markets last night and sure
enough it dropped again today! Not sure who it was but someone posted that they were long on the Canuck Buck. Whoever it was please post your
reasons as I cannot see how one could call the Loonie long. Perhaps I am
missing something obvious. Your analysis would be appreciated. Not to

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:00 - ID#401460)
DBRS downgrades Echo Bay to BB(Low)
Tuesday December 16, 6:14 pm Eastern Time

DBRS downgrades Echo Bay to BB ( Low )

TORONTO, Dec 16 ( Reuters ) - Dominion Bond Rating Service Ltd said on Tuesday it downgraded the senior debt rating of
Echo Bay Mines Ltd [AMEX:ECO - news] to BB ( Low ) from BBB ( Low ) .

The rating trend was stable, DBRS said.

The downgrade reflected the weak operating results and deterioration of the balance sheet because of the fall in gold prices in 1997, the agency said.

Echo Bay lost C$55 million in the first nine months of this year, compared with a net loss of C$43 million in the year earlier period, DBRS said.

In addition to the weakening gold prices, Echo Bay wrote down the book value of assets by C$310 million in the third quarter of 1997, DBRS said.

Echo Bay was curtailing exploration and development spending and expected to reduce cash operating costs. Borrowing under the existing credit facility was limited because of low gold prices and its ability to access capital markets was uncertain,
DBRS said.

The company's main strength was its modest debt level of C$57 million, compared with total assets of C$483 million and two relatively low cost mines -- Round Mountain and Kettle River, DBRS said.

With the downgrade, Echo Bay was removed from ``under review with negative implications,'' DBRS said.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:01 - ID#225283)


How is the shooting coming along?

I had a question for you...please explain why you feel the Swiss will vote to support the sale of gold.

I was also wondering if you had heard the rumors of vast amounts of previously accounted for PM's have gone missing in Moscow?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:14 - ID#238422)
@Private Investor
Privet, Sir!

1. Shooting is coming along all right.

2. I do not feel that Swiss will vote for the government
proposal to sell gold, however, we should not forget
that if EURO is going to be much weaker than Swiss
franc, it could effect this referendum. May be then it
will be used to "weaken" Swiss franc, but it is
my pure speculation.

3. Never heard of such rumor.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:17 - ID#286230)
Japan Tax Cut Plan
News to me:

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:19 - ID#226355)
Calling Aurator
Aurator: The Klondike Gold Rush-Photographs from 1896-1899
I have one copy I will exchange for Steinlager Futures. Let me know.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:23 - ID#225283)
Rothschild Loans

Does someone out there happen to have a list of various mines that have been loaned large amounts of capitol by Rothschild ....and if so....what amount ....and what are the proven reserves of borrowing mining company...the reason I ask is my family was manipulated out of certain mining holdings a few generations back and the handwriting on the wall looks very familiar...

I am not one to buy into the usual theories about such things ...but from a business plan stand point it is a hell of alot cheaper to make loans at say 50% LTV on various mines throughout the world ....then apply the right pressure in the proper markets and politicians parlors....keep the pressure on while helping out the CB's...snap up the borrowers assets through bankruptcy procedures...wham ...bamb...thank you lambs....the lender picks up assets at half price ( or less if you consider that the local fiat funny money has been devalued but your loans were tied to say the US Dollar which has not been devalued ) .

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:29 - ID#225283)

Russian Rumors came from Ruetors article that alluded to nonconfimed audits by the Russian equivalent to the US OMB.

Resources diverted to pay expenses on various Daccha ( sic )

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:30 - ID#411225)
RE:Private Investor
I do not have a list, but I did take note of a mining company that went bankrupt today. Rea Gold Corp. They are in debt to Rothchilds for $23Mil secured by their assets. Sounds familiar?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:40 - ID#252127)
Donald 08:21 12/16/97....No no no

Think of the bankers as the "Salivating Army" and the IMF as the benefactor that helps them buy quality properties for pennies on the paper dollar.
IMO, we will soon receive a surge of cheap imports and none will have to ( will? ) work; that is until the savings run dry. Then a probable depression and we will want some work, but no work will be there to save our asses ( assets ) against the final levelling of North American society.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:44 - ID#225283)
Oris & Any one that might know

Have you heard anything about the Western Investors that are suing for control of the NOVOLIPETSK METALLURGY COMBINE?

DO you have any news about GENE CZAPLINSKY he was working on a deal to issue the first foriegn issue collectable coins out of Russia since the early communist days?

Do you feel the government in Russia and the Ukraine will be able to keep their bond debt service current?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:45 - ID#290305)
@STUDIO.R re:British Sovereigns
4-6 weeks delivery, that seems quite long. I bought at $85 when AU was at $325 with immediate delivery. It does seem as though the value of the sovereigns hold pretty well at the lower AU prices. My source tells me that activity on the European gold coins has been very brisk. When you say USAGold Phillies at $299, what coin is this, St. Gaudens? I am missing something here... Glad to hear the family is togehter. Happy Holidays.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:46 - ID#26144)
To Farfel
Think of gold as insurance. People around the world spend billions
of $ on insurance year after year to protect everything imaginable,
most hoping they will not need it -- These "premiums" go down the
drain never to be seen again - there is seldom any thought of
insurance as an appreciable asset, just as "protection" and the peace of mind is considered to be worth the price. Gold is protection "in case things get REALLY bad" ( which may be just what is happening now ) The bonus is that it ALSO serves as a commodity AND as money - As a recent poster pointed out, you can take gold anywhere in the world and exchange it for currency but you can't take currency anywhere and exchange it for gold. What other instrument is so versatile?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:51 - ID#225283)

Would you care to wager that they will not be the last mining outfit "unable to reach" an agreement for a workout of the loan...could it be because the lender would prefer that the borrower defaults.Just a thought.

News Server
(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:56 - ID#390100)

Ron Brown Homicide? A prominent civilian pathologist has now stepped forward to back up Armed Forces Forensic Pathologists Cogswell and Hause. This story is bigger...

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:57 - ID#225283)

(Wed Dec 17 1997 01:59 - ID#393224)
Harris saves Kiwi bacon
Can't hide,Auracious. Ve hav vays of finding you.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 02:02 - ID#411225)
Private Investor
You can keep your money because I certainly won't take that bet. When Rea went into receivership, I understand they had a large forward selling position. Looks like Rothchilds would not let them liquidate any of it for debt payment forcing their assets into Rothchild's pocket. Your post seemed familiar to this.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 02:05 - ID#393224)
Aussie gold shares UP for a change
Aussie gold index up 3.4 % today. C'mon northerners, let's keep the ball rolling ( XGO +29.8 to 881.7 ) .

(Wed Dec 17 1997 02:06 - ID#159156)
Japan Causes Change in Gold Trend
Boys and girls, we could finally be on our way. We won't know for a while whether we've seen the ultimate low in gold, but I think a bounce is inevitable now. Let's hope it's a really big bounce.

Did the Japanese government do enough to stabilize its financial house? I think this question will determine gold's short-term future. Gold has been on a steep slide since the October Crisis began. Korea seems to have a good chance of stabilizing, if they don't do something stupid. If Japan stabilizes too, then the whole region will breathe a sigh of relief. The US dollar will lose some of it's recent strength, sending the US$ price of gold up. The price has already turned up in most every other developed-country currency. If you're short gold, or long US dollars or US bonds, I'd suggest the sidelines. ( Soon it will be time to go short the S&P. )

Well, did the japanese do it? The analysts' early reactions are mostly "no". Maybe they've been a bit hasty with their criticism.

The Japanese economy contracted by about US$71 billion recently. The Japanese governemnt has done the following:

US$15.7 billion in personal income tax cuts, which are expected to boost both consumption and saving by roughly $8 billion each.

US$6.6 billion in corporate and other tax cuts. ( I assume 100% consumption. )

US$78 billion currency ( yen ) printed in the form of bonds, and given to the deposit insurance fund. ( Let's hope this is enough. )

These actions are being criticized as being too little. Consider this. The $8 billion in savings will help raise bank reserves and probably support $30 - $40 billion ( or more ) in loans over the next year as the original money is loaned out, deposited by someone else, loaned out again, etc. ( Let's assume 100% goes to consumption. ) Increases in consumption have a multiplier effect on the economy ( as A buys from B who buys from C, etc. ) of, say 2.5 times. $45 - $55 billion increased consumption x 2.5 = about $110 - 145 billion in economic stimutation. I'd say that's quite a shot in the arm!

I'm sure there are other spinoff effects too, such as inflation boosting interest rates which will boost inflation... Higher interest rates will raise the income of the best savers in the world ( 30%-40%, compared to a US rate of 2% ) . Stronger consumers will spend more money, and so on.

My point is that the Japanese *have* saved the day for gold. The yen will stabilize, the US dollar will fall, gold will rise, the shorts will cover.

Sweet dreams!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 02:14 - ID#225283)


(Wed Dec 17 1997 02:25 - ID#33164)
Dear Aurator-

This arrived in my e-mail just now- I had bought the "Bible Code' book, and asked for new details when available.

I know you have a MAC- but maybe they have one for you? The dictionary below looked just like something you'd be interested in??

May be worth a look? And for anyone else who'd be interested in translating the odd word or so whilst on the puter!


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TO AURIC- I can only get to ONE page at a time on Kitco these days- but notice you're going on holiday- Have a wonderful and blessed time with your loved ones- And may the New Year bring you success and joy. Best regards..

To ALL: As promised, I did speak to my young friend and gave her Kitco's Url for her Japanese students. Apparently they are most reluctant to 'display' their feelings or opinions to outsiders. I told her to tell them that there is great sympathy for the Japanese situation and the Japanese people on this site, and that we all wished them well. Can't do much more than that, I'm afraid!

Regards to you all!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 02:28 - ID#225283)

sorry but i disagree with you...spoke with an associate earlier today ...he will be leaving for Japan on thursday... he tells me that his in-laws and family members...they are WWII survivors and hard core nationalist that would never have thought of moving money out of Japan in the past...transfered a large percentage of their savings and wealth out of Japan....many of their peers are doing or have done like-wise...he informed me that he was attempting to get them to withdraw and transfer 100% of their savings...but they would not 10-20% still in Japan...confidence inthe LDP and banking system is very low...a convicted criminal ( accepting bribes from unions & yakuza ) has been appointed to the "cabinet" and confidence in the government is very low.

Shutting the barn door after the cows have long gone does no good.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 02:34 - ID#225283)


Funny you should mention this book ...I was just reviewing it earlier today and I found no reference to gold.

Have you found any?

Mr. Smith
(Wed Dec 17 1997 02:46 - ID#347333)
to All
How in the world was the gold market shorted to the tune of 6-8000 tons?
It defies logic.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 02:56 - ID#26144)
Mr Smith
An interesting figure ( =approx. 168,000,000 ozs. or just under 2 years
global production? ) I'd be interested in knowing where and how such
a figure is derived ... also, what are the cumulative estimated CB
gold holdings ( since you're doing number ) at this time? Thanks

(Wed Dec 17 1997 03:02 - ID#226355)
CB's AU holdings
Beamer- 1.11 Billion Troy ounces or 34,500 tons. Roughly 1/3 of all the gold above ground.

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 17 1997 03:14 - ID#24140)
To All

Can anyone guide me to any information source on

historical CB gold holdings. Im particularly interested

in european countries holdings between 1st and 2nd

world wars.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 03:15 - ID#26144)
Another interesting figure. Shorts of 6-8000 tonnes would therefore
represent 20-25% of CB holdings. Obviously a lot of people believe
that they're ready to "dump" this amount onto the market... or a lot
of them don't think enough and just go with the flow..... Your take
on the probability of this?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 03:16 - ID#159156)
Interesting perspective, thanks. It certainly is food for thought. Actually, I'm thinking quite short-term at the moment, reacting to where I see the money flowing around the globe. As your friend pointed, a lot of money has rushed into the US in the last 2 years as fear and panic rose across Asia.

I'm hoping that, at least temporarily, this flow will stop and maybe start to reverse, as the domestic population regains at least a little hope. If their currencies stabilize, they may be interested in taking advantage of bargains at home. Thus, they will pull their money out of the US bond and stock markets. ( Dollar down, gold up as I said earlier. )

Given your feedback, I will reduce my expectations. Perhaps this scenario will take longer to play itself out than I thought.

Mr. Smith
(Wed Dec 17 1997 03:32 - ID#347333)
to Beamer
Yes, an interesting number for sure. I have heard the short position over the year has been as high as 3500 tonnes, prompting several lease rate spikes by the CB's. However, just read a magazine promotional where the cite a Frank Vanerroso ( spelling? ) , who they say conducted research across the planet into exactly how big the short position really is--6 to 8,000 tonnes. Incidentally, I read somewhere recently, can't recall where, where the writer speculated the short position could be as high as 8,000 tonnes. Can you or anybody elaborate?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 03:37 - ID#26144)
Mr. Smith
Very sorry, but I am unable to help with short estimates - the only ones I see are on SJ Kaplan's page and these do not nearly approximate the
amounts you have discussed ( ie American only ) . Perhaps one of our experts ( ie. George Cole, etc. ) would have such numbers at their finger tips?? Did you just see gold jump? up $4.79 and pushing $290 !!!!!!!!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 03:39 - ID#26144)
Now up $5.00!!!!!

Mr. Smith
(Wed Dec 17 1997 03:42 - ID#347333)
short covering
Good lord, if the market is really shorted to the tune of 8000 tonnes, the shorts would need divine intervention to cover. Can this really be happening? Gold up $5.20 bucks in overnight trading--Japanese finally flexing their muscle?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 03:45 - ID#226355)
Beamer- I think that the short sellers are playing a game of "chicken" with each other and the POG could rise dramatically if they are forced to cover. They have however recent history on their side and alot of gold bulls money. I hate it when reality gets in my way. I think it is too seductive to think of the market as monolithic, there is no Mr.Short Seller ( despite the opinions sometimes expressed here ) the decisions of many people are involved in the massive build up of short sales. Whether these people can exit the market in an orderly manner has yet to be seen and will determine how high and how fast the price goes if it goes. I hope it does because I really am a producer and at these price levels I am a not profit organization!
Try The World Gold Council Website for lots of information on CB's,demand for gold and gold in general.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 03:46 - ID#26144)
Or maybe those nasty, maipulative Rothschilds have decided to pull the
cork out of the bottle and let 'er rip ... Yahoo!

Mr. Smith
(Wed Dec 17 1997 03:50 - ID#347333)
"Chicken" is a good way to put it. They ( the shorts ) have been sporadically covering for two or three weeks now but most of them have just been sitting there like a deer frozen in the headlights. An orderly exit? What are the odds of that, Mr. Spock?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 03:54 - ID#26144)
Thankyou for the reference - I will try the WGC. Platinum up nearly
$7.00 and palladium up $2.00 - this becomes better and better ( P.S.
you may have noticed that the +- figures for plat and pall. on the
top bar are incorrect .... )

(Wed Dec 17 1997 03:57 - ID#26144)
Plats. now up $8.90 ( $1.90 in 5 MINUTES!! ) What is going on??

Mr. Smith
(Wed Dec 17 1997 04:05 - ID#347333)
Whoever has been dumping platium over the last week to 10 days is apparently finished. Boy what a drop. According to SJKaplans page, the platinum commercials are now buying. Gold at $5.40. Looks like this is a definite bounce.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 04:09 - ID#177109)
Beamer: do you have the NYNEX/Access overnight symbol for plats?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 04:13 - ID#26144)
Sorry, no! I've just been refering to the "Detailed Quotes" on
Kitco ( to the left ) which seem to be "faster" and more accurate
than the top bar quotes .. If you find it, can you post it ?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 04:15 - ID#33164)
Hello There!

I looked and looked for GOLD in the Bibe-Code, but found nothing!-
But, then went into a search on the bible-code, and found the very interesting site below amongst a few others. This seemed the best.

One could perhaps ask the very serious and nice people on this site to look for us- my life so busy at the moment that I hardly have time to think!

Take care- regards, and forgive the discourtesy in my delay in replying. All sorts of things happening in between!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 04:17 - ID#226355)
Possible Covering?
The US$ dollar was down 6 yen today, is the weakness continuing around the globe? The dollar going down is a very, very good sign for gold. Anybody willing to make a call on the Dow today? Seems a bit more civilized around here at night. You guys have yet to tell me I'm an idiot.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 04:30 - ID#177109)
NYMEX Access Platinum
Beamer: the symbol is wz for overnight ( as wl is the one for crude oil ) , but i don't know if it's active at all. i punched in wzf8 and see nada so far.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 04:38 - ID#177109)
Beamer: there it is: last $352 up $11.40.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 04:40 - ID#26144)
Perhaps someone can help us tomorrow - I'm a bit delirious from all
this action tonight ( palladium now up $5 as is gold... ) so will turn in
Until tomorrow......

(Wed Dec 17 1997 04:46 - ID#177109)
i wonder if the japanese who brought us the bubble economy and then later the de- ( disin ) flation era, will now be the harbingers of re-inflation? must get some sleep. bbml.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 04:48 - ID#393224)
Antipodeans busy tonight
G'day producer. Antipodeans are all watching Oz beat NZ in the cricket tonight. That's why Aurator is afraid to show up.

Looks like the start of something, mate. A few more $5 up days and you might be back in business. Plat and pall also taking a nice bounce. Someone must have been flogging the missing Ruskie stockpile. There will be a few new dachas on the black sea this year.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:03 - ID#226355)
G'day Nick. Pretty quiet around here for all the action in PM's. One day Cricket or a Test? Should be hopping something fierce at Kitco tomorrow if the trend continues. I'm kind of in a split timezone so I get to hear everyone and I must confess you down under guy's are more civil than my country men. ( Aside frim the odd bit of Yank bashing ) . Of course I spend a great deal of time in your neck of the woods so I might be biased. Did I ever tell you about the Baramundi I caught...

JOE Smith
(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:11 - ID#184165)
Silver surge good this one
Re: LEG / ECM Results - some thoughts going on in my
mind--where is this project headung

From: tommy
Category: ASX reports
Date: 12/17/97
Time: 7:10:59 PM
Remote Name:


If we assume that on the original programme as defined by the limited drilling a indicated resources of
100,000 ton of material going 1-3% ( see Legend prospectus ) . Then the current shaft was sunk near
hole 45 where it was reported as about 3%.I gather that as the first results from the edge of the ore
body exceeded all expectations ,results of 37% were recorded and plenty of ultra mafic samples gave

.special note was made that these samples did not contain any native silver ( was removed for
independant review I assume )

The bulk sample of approx. 100 ton was taken from this edge to create the pit from which the current
drilling has been carried out.

Thus bulk sample should go minimum say 2.0%----provided all silver gets to extractor---rumours that
some of the large nuggets have been retained.--but that's another story

It would fair to assume that the diamond holes were driven from within the pit north to south, east to
west for about 30 metere where the ground permitted. As hole 45 is at the end of the of silver block
( refer Prudential-Bache site report ) then some of the current holes must have extended the known
ore body as all holes contained silver sulphides and visible native silver.

To see visible silver in cores suggest % type values will be obtained form assays. There is added value
in the silver sulphides. This supports a feeling of 2%

There is limited space to work in and the need to look after the drill, and to maintain good recovery of
cores, if difficult ground is encountered then it is wise to pull out and go again.

Like wise surveying these holes may call for a short break in the programme as I doubt if drillers and
surveyors could fit comfortably in the pit.

The current drill results certainly confirm some continuity of native silver within the ore
body-----albeit we will have to wait for assays

The style of mineralisation showing at least 3 Argento sulfides is very encouraging that this
mineralization is primary and controlled by the munni munni fault and more shoots etc.. ought to be
found in the future.

I hear that many photos have been taken from within the pit to show to the doubters. One the geology
has been worked on a little further-- ( appears to be a never ending process ) .

When to bulk test is finished, diamond drill cores split and assayed and made available for inspection
to the public ( brokers ,newspapers... .so so on. ) a road show must be presented by competent
consultants ---and also in company with Directors of both companies.

This project will get another kick on when progress towards hole 25 ( the 16% one ) - ----beneath the
current stoop which maybe out of reach of current drill, .is targeted ,..this may need the shaft to be
deepened some 20 meters ( should not be a problem ) possibly entered below the known spot as to
allow stoping to take place in a economical way.

It is not impossible that a 100 ton/day removal of ore is obtained -----requiring v,little capital cost.

Current exploration permit allows for 5000 ton/year removal.

From a corporate point of view , say the directors of both companies decided to remove the 5000 per
year ----this would give a minimum 10 year life --better than most mines.

then 5000 to @2% Ag ----- ( and forgetting accounting for any other credits would ) this would yield
say 100 ton of Silver.. At today's price of say approx. $8.0 AUD then we have a gross income of
approx. $ 30 mill extraction costs of say $3mill ( should be way less than this ) .

We a looking at surplus of something like $25 mill per year for 10 years at least.

I shall leave it to other to say what this type of income means to East Coast and Legend

But it gives a feel that the project right now could easily carry a Market Cap of $100mill+

that's $$ more than now.

Just a few thoughts going on my mind-----tommy

(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:15 - ID#226355)
Disturbing thoughts
Nick- The Japanese are selling dollars for yen for the first time in five years. The dollar droppped a quick six yen. So far so good. Is there enough demand for dollars elsewhere in the east to make this a non event? I have winnowed my POG theory down to if the US$ does not fall gold is going nowhere. A lot less dramatic than the conspiracy theories but way easier to remember. And I am after all just a producer.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:15 - ID#255284)
ANOTHER NZ classic collapse...roll on footie....ALL BLACKS UNBEATEN CHAMPIONS 1997,,,
Nick@C spot on. Well close enough. and speaking of spot 15/12/97 NZ$465.94, and today 17/12/97 NZ$482.20. We is flying even before tonite's little action, but then again, we swummed like a brick huh? a gold-brick. Looking forward to my lunch on Sunday with the disbelievers... ( You liked my 4:20 yesterday? you weren't the only one, I got deluged by an e-mail ) ---

Goldbug23- Thank you, good sir, I shall be in touch, I seem to remember taking a ( quite probably rigged ) Libertarian Questionarre here a couple of months back, did you post that? and I was suprised to find my self so easily described, but then again, I would really not belong to any political party or movement that would have me as a member....

Producer: My pleasure. Steinie futures eh, here, take my certificate! Redeemable at your pleasure.

Colleen ( ? )

goldbrick? sounds like you could build one hll of a BarbQ with them Ted?. talk about aussiestentatious!


(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:16 - ID#393224)
Yank bashing is the world's favourite sport, mate. Of course, down here we do it with a smile. The others really mean it!! Baramundi--best fighters and best tasting fish around.

What sustained gold price does it take for you and your mates to stay in business and actually make a quid? Heard on the news tonight that 20% of the world's gold mines will close down at these prices.

Have a look at CJS1 post of Dec. 16/17:39. My vote for best post of the week. I'm going to pay more attention to Muslim holidays.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:24 - ID#226355)
Aurator- Send me a snail mail address and the book is on the way. Let me guess....I was thinking maybe North Shore Takapuna area until the "sale of paradise" Corumandel or BOP? Put the Steinlager on ice for March I'm usually running around your country then ( fewer americans around that late in the season ) .

(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:29 - ID#286410)
Good Morning
South Africa JSE ALLGOLD up +30.1 ( +4.35% ) this morning.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:37 - ID#398105)
Joe Smith..... SILVER and the Munni Munni Conplex

G'Day Joe,

Where is this project going? Most likely no-where with the current Perth based management. Why go underground drilling down a 2 by 2 metre shaft, when it could be delimated from surface. Old brains and technology at work.

I think that it about time for the Bhoys in Kalgoorlie to get involved, then we will see some action.

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:38 - ID#255284)
That ain't no digger
Producer: The steinies are on order. You know the best time to visit and your geography is very good. I do not live on the Coromandel, the site of the Martha Hill gold mine, ( had to talk about gold eh? )


(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:38 - ID#393224)
Your Dec.16/04:20 shall be entered into the "Kitco Classics" file.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:39 - ID#226355)
You can eat them??
Nick- I agree, great post. Just when you think you know everything...

IMHO 20% not profitable is very optomistic at these price levels. I am often confused by the focus on "cash costs" or "costs of production" when someone is touting a gold stock. Then you dig into the balance sheet and all this debt is hanging out there. If you buy a car on credit, paying for the petrol is not the total cost of owning the car.

If I do not see 320 an ounce I might overstay my visa and sign up for the dole. The gold I produce is 22% silver so by the time the refining costs and melt loss are through with me I am lucky to see 70% of spot price. 200 an ounce is pretty thin and I own all my equipment, other miners are facing payments. The coffee shops are pretty grim these days.

I thought the guy who took the fish from me was doing me a favor...those friendly Aussies.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:44 - ID#287367)
@Nick with Cranberries
Re: Auratious 12/16/97 @4:20AM...It's not We the People who suck, It's that goddam perverted despotic monomaniacal government under which we have to suffer!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:45 - ID#398105)
SILVER and the Munni Munni Complex

G'Day Joe from Kalgoorlie,

From what I hear, some nuggets were not simply retained but "stolen" - some where between half and a million dollars worth, and that is what we know about. Source out which Geologist has recently left the project - he was a contractor working on behalf of Legend Mining NL. I would hope for a prosecution, else as a share holder we will have to have a go at the MD.

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:53 - ID#393224)
Crystal Ball
I'll bet you were real happy to see the "Buddy" show on tv today. Joseph Goebbels would be proud of him.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:54 - ID#287367)
@Nickelodeon @ Canberra & Cassandauratious
As "Bart" ( Gene Wilder ) said to the new sheriff of Rock Ridge ( Cleavon Little ) , we're "just the common clay...You know, morons!!"
We're all Cassandras here at Kitco. None of our friends or colleagues listen to us...They all think we're two cans short of a six-pack.

JOE Smith
(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:57 - ID#184165)
yes i have heard just that ---6-700 Kg.
A 1kg has tunrned up. GEO is now banned FR...v
Two problems arise ,firstly bulk sample will be reduced ny .6-.7%
The bloody directors wont call in G.Squad-- we are all waiting for samples to make their way to the rock hounds.
MM is protecting the fellow .I hear he is still in LEG office===it stinks,

(Wed Dec 17 1997 05:58 - ID#226355)
Aurator: You ain't no west coaster.
Ahh, the Martha Hill, now thats a big hole in the ground that does my strip mining heart good. Speaking of holes in NZ ever been to Ross?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:01 - ID#393224)
Mate, have I got a deal for you. The Brooklyn Bridge with all the barramundi you can eat-- just send 1000 oz of gold to....

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:02 - ID#255284)
the mind of the mnemonist

Now you're showing me up. :- ) No, I never been to Ross ( and remembered it )

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:02 - ID#398105)
The Derivates Revolution, in Gold

G'day from Kalgoorlie,

Is gold going up, down or sideways............? Pardon the pun, but is that a 24 Dollar Question?! Hope it's not.

The immediate concern on gold is that a sunstantial proportion of the derivative exposure is, presumably, held by a handful of large institutions and speculators, and therefore the possibility of a default having a ripple effect through the tiers of financial systems is, possibly, greatly enhanced. With the Central Banks "gaining" interest through gold futures and derivatives, and given that ALL dealings are totally confidential and un-accountable to extenal audits or review - the question is where the hell are we. Presumably, ALOT of the defaults via the Asian Banking systems were on derivative transactions?! How many were related to GOLD?!. Remember COPPER!!!

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:07 - ID#398105)
Joe Smith.... Munni Munni

G'Day Joe,

Well, I am a share holder. I think a letter to the MD is appropriate, for the record.

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:08 - ID#238295)
Gold bear history?
If the dollar bull is truly over, then the gold bear also is history, Glennn's prognostications nothwitstanding.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:10 - ID#226355)
Quit while I'm ahead

Nick- there was a problem in your last post, your address did not come through so I sent the 1000 oz, general delivery Australia,Nick@C. Please send the bridge to Alaska UPS.

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:12 - ID#24140)
Who's that knocking at my door ??
to All

Reported today that Vancover based Placer Dome is

in RSA courting Avgold - Gee anglos did their JCI

deal JUST IN TIME. I imagine that Placer is

interested in the Avgolds target property . Avgold has

reserves of 62 mill. oz. at a market cap of maybe 225

mill $. That's under 4$/oz for chrissake.

I assume Placer must have been reading my postings.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:20 - ID#255284)
Crystall Ball, two cans short of a 6-pack?
( a ) that's why I'm at home - everyone I know thinks I'm crazy but you lot*
( b ) are you describing the aussie ave IQ?
( c ) is this inflationary?
( d ) does that mean more plastic around 4-packs so more throw-away dodackies to throttle fish in our ocean
( e ) is this deflationary?
( g ) why do you take questionaires ( how do you spell that pesky word? )

* Oh, you do?



Gold were as good as twenty orators. Shakespeare, Richard III iv, 3, 38 ( 1592 )

( or even better ) ---move over shake baby

JOE Smith
(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:20 - ID#184165)
Haggis__A munni munni
I agree but also send a copy to the G.squad
mm of LEG may ( dare i say it ) appears reluctant.
With that cache is there a co conspirator.diggers seem clean but they now the truth the truth

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:29 - ID#393224)
G'nite all
Antipodean beauty-sleep time. Gold on the yo-yo string again. Someone out there is very worried. Whole lotta shorts caught by the s. and c.s??

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:29 - ID#26793)
BOJ wants a strong yen

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:31 - ID#398105)
Beamer and Producer

G'Day Lads from Kalgoorlie,

If we accept a "vacuum" of 8000 tonnes gold through derivative tradings ( 3 years world production ) which has to be "filled" at some point or rolled over and over ..... and, if we accept LBMA London ( Rothchilds ) and the FED New York ( Rothchilds ) as being the major player - winning as the market goes UP AND DOWN, they are only likely to drop the gold market further IF it is in their interest. My view is that they are unlikely to drop it further, based on the assumption that "they" under write UK Sterling and the US Dollar - check in particular the comparative trends of Sterling- gold and US Dollar gold, and Sterling- US Dollar. If I did not know any better, I would humbly suggest that the Yanks and Brits are in "bed" together, backed by WHO??!!

The "Chaps" in London have only recently left Hong Kong ( July, when s... started to hit the fan ) , have to get their influence back somehow - via the creation of new markets for GOLD in Asia. A small example, all gold produced by Lepanto Mining and Manila Mining is straight on the plane to London - it is not kept in Manila.

Aye Haggis

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:31 - ID#325284)
Philharmonic buying frenzy
According to a report in an austrian Newspaper this weekend, the Austrian Mint sold 85.000 pcs "Philharmoniker"-coins in November, after a total of 10.000 pcs in September.

They namend a representative of "Mnze Austria" ( the austrian mint ) as the source of these figures. It was not mentioned, wheter those figures show the sale of 1 troz-Phillies or the total of Phillies sold, which is also available as 1/10, 1/4 and 1/2-troz.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:34 - ID#26793)
Speculation that BOJ has placed 129 yen to the dollar cap.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:35 - ID#255284)
The .........over.....

'Afore I go....

some gems, gleamed and gleaned from this site, ( Tip O' the cap to you BART ) in the past little while:

The Less you Know, the More you Make.

"When distant and unfamiliar and complex things are communicated to great masses of people, the truth suffers a considerable and often a radical distortion." -------- Walter Lippmann

When the ship starts to sink, dont pray, Jump
Zurich Axiom #3 On Hope
Max Gunther

"Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing. It was here first." ----- Mark Twain

-"Financial genius is a rising stock market" - Galbraith -

"Never confuse a bull market and brains" - Wall Street Axiom

-"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria" - Sir John Templeton

-"Psychology can turn overnight like a key in a lock. Click - the party's over." - a New York broker on the eve of the 1969 bear market

Uhhhhhh Duhhhhhhh? 'rator

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:41 - ID#26793)
Waigel says IMF help must remain conditional

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:43 - ID#24140)
Put this in your pipe and smoke it
For Oris and others

A little known fact

RSA produces 77% of worlds platinum, 31% of their

palladium, 83% of their rhodium.

Russia produces 15% of worlds platinum, 56% of world's

palladium, 12% of their rhodium.

Russia is the major palladium player in the world.

Not so platinum and by a long shot.

Source Johnson Matthey Platinum 1997

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:43 - ID#398105)
Market Shorts.... Germans

G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

Before I forget....

This has to be verified by someone, but I am told that the "Official" German gold loans total 3000 tonnes. However, I am informed that it may be as high as 7000 tonnes. The implications of this is that the total gold shorts may be way in excess of 8000 tonnes. Could someone verify this.

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:43 - ID#419147)

The way you talk sounds pessimism : )

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:46 - ID#26793)
Liquidity problems force Brazilian currency lower

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:49 - ID#26793)
Russian oil output rises for the first time in 10 years

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:53 - ID#26793)
Mahathir says Asians must accept the fact thay they are poor now

(Wed Dec 17 1997 06:57 - ID#26793)
Thailand must lead a more frugal life. Growth at zero %

(Wed Dec 17 1997 07:09 - ID#256254)
``We are very concerned that this progress is beginning to erode. In recent months, U.S. exports to

TOKYO, Dec 17 ( Reuters ) - U.S. ambassador to Japan Thomas Foley said on Wednesday that the United States is worried that progress on

access to the Japanese market is beginning to erode.

``We are very concerned that this progress is beginning to erode. In recent months, U.S. exports to Japan have slowed and our trade imbalance

is expanding sharply,'' he said.

Foley also said the two nations hoped to strike a deal in their aviation talks very soon.

``In this light, we hope our two nations will be able to conclude very soon an historic civil aviation agreement,'' he said.


TOKYO, Dec 17 ( Reuters ) - It will be difficult for the United States and Japan to reach an agreement in their aviation dispute by the end of this

year, a Japanese Transport Ministry official told reporters on Wednesday.

``At the present time the gap between us is large and the U.S. appears to have hit a wall in the negotiations,'' the official said.

He added that unless there was a radical change in the U.S. position overnight, it would be difficult for an agreement to be reached in this round

of talks.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 07:22 - ID#432298)
Gold returning its glitter
Has gold finally hit bottom and now on its way up once again? That is truly the million dollar question. Gold has stabalized now and my gut feeling is it is on the rebound. Your comments on this subject would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 07:24 - ID#256254)
Did LDP have their meeting to approve package?
Date: Wed Dec 17 1997 06:57
Donald_A if you find detail information of the Japanese package, please post it. "The ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) plans to hold a meeting of its executives to approve a third package of
economic stimulus measures a..."

Wednesday December 17, 2:39 am Eastern Time

LDP says to raise BOJ loans to DIC to 10 trln yen>

Tuesday December 16, 9:44 pm Eastern Time

LDP to hold meeting to adopt econ steps 0600 GMT

TOKYO, Dec 17 ( Reuters ) - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) plans to hold a meeting of its executives to approve a third package of
economic stimulus measures at 3 p.m. ( 0600 GMT ) on Wednesday, an LDP official said.

Taku Yamasaki, chairman of the LDP's policy making body, will give a news conference after the meeting, the official said.

Wednesday December 17, 1:17 am Eastern Time

LDP delays meeting to adopt econ steps to 0630 GMT

TOKYO, Dec 17 ( Reuters ) - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) plans to hold a meeting of its executives to approve a third package of
economic stimulus measures at 3.30 p.m. ( 0630 GMT ) on Wednesday, an LDP official said.

The meeting was originally planned for 3 p.m. ( 0600 GMT ) .

Wednesday December 17, 2:39 am Eastern Time

LDP says to raise BOJ loans to DIC to 10 trln yen

TOKYO, Dec 17 ( Reuters ) - A senior official of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) said on Wednesday that Japan is ready to expand
the maximum amount of Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) lending to the Deposit Insurance Corp ( DIC ) to 10 trillion yen.

The official said that LDP policy chief Taku Yamasaki had told a party panel that the lending would be raised from the current maximum of two
trillion yen.

The official added: ``The 10 trillion yen ( in loans to the DIC ) would be in addition to the 10 trillion yen of government bonds to be contributed to
the DIC, which was announced on Tuesday.''

The official, senior panel member Shokei Arai, said that raising the BOJ's maximum lending to the DIC could be done easily without creating a
new law.

``I believe the new ceiling on BOJ lending of 10 trillion yen may be implemented by the year-end if any emergency arises,'' he added.

Separately, Yamasaki was asked if the proposal to raise the maximum BOJ lending to the DIC would be approved at Friday's cabinet meeting.
He said: ``Yes, I think so.''

He added that he would hold a briefing on the LDP's third economic package later on Wednesday, but the time had not yet been decided.

Related News Categories: US Market News, currency, international

Wednesday December 17, 3:01 am Eastern Time

LDP to include income tax cut in 3rd econ package

TOKYO, Dec 17 ( Reuters ) - Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) will include a two trillion yen special income tax cut in its third
economic stimulus package to be announced later on Wednesday, LDP officials told reporters.

LDP officials also decided to allocate 150 billion yen for social welfare programmes for low-income people displaced by the country's economic
downturn, a spokesman for the party said. The spending will take place in 1997/98.

He added that the LDP's economic package would include the special income tax cuts, tax reform measures for the next fiscal year, financial
stability initiatives, and aid for small- and medium-sized businesses,

The package will also include measures to cope with unemployment, which is currently at a record high 3.5 percent. It also will include private
financing initiatives.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 07:26 - ID#256254)
Good timing for this one (gold up $5.00 to 288.7 and Silver up .08 to 6.06)
Wednesday December 17, 6:47 am Eastern Time

London gold off highs as Japan rally peters out

LONDON, Dec 17 ( Reuters ) - The price of gold was firmer on Tuesday on the back of Japan-driven gains, but a lack of follow through in
Europe saw prices drifting off from early highs.

``Japanese buying set the market alight. But gold ran into some heavy resistance at $289-$290 so prices have drifted back from the highs,'' a
European trader said.

Bullion fixed at $286.10 per ounce, versus $285.50 on Tuesday afternoon and a London close of $284.90/$285.40.

Prices peaked at a $289.20 bid before easing back.

A surprise Tokyo announcement of big tax cuts to boost the economy and an intervention by the Japanese central bank had sent the yen soaring
against the U.S. dollar during Asian trading hours.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 07:29 - ID#256254)
Oooops double post... sorry
I'm going back to bed, I have seen what I wanted to see. Next stop comex opening.

G'night ( again )

Contrary indicator
(Wed Dec 17 1997 07:36 - ID#342285)
Explanation for Asian move
I can explain the move up in gold today in Asia: I put in a limit order to buy some calls last night. Just watch me and do the opposite of what I do, and you'll probably make some good money.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 07:37 - ID#333131)
$ drops, gold holds its price against the yen
I wonder where all those dollars being sold are coming from. Treasuries?

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 17 1997 07:52 - ID#287367)
@Auratious/Tolerant1/Haggis/Nick Cranberry/Sharefin Nick
Am I nuts? Do my eyes deceive me? Gold 288.85 +5.15 07:48

(Wed Dec 17 1997 07:59 - ID#427357)


We are indeed fortunate to have received an insightful and scholarly treatise, whose content and format could well be a doctoral thesis on the financially pertinent subject of the Monetary Mismanagement of the illustrious group called Central Bankers. This observer has NO DOUBT the detailed and in-depth analysis will be of utmost keen interest to GOLDBUGS, students of money, politicians, and yes, even Central Bankers!

It documents where we have been, where we are, and most importantly where we will be monetarily at the millennium. It is indeed encyclopedic in its coverage of the subject. Like the historically important Rosetta Stone - which was the key to deciphering the hieroglyphics of ancient Egypt - this oracle view promises to be the translation blueprint for the forth-coming world monetary reform.

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:04 - ID#286199)
Platinum and Paladium - Sell on the rumor/buy on the news?
December 17, 1997
Platinum and Palladium Extend Declines as Bulls Turn Bearish


LONDON -- The shine is coming off
platinum and palladium.

Continuing the severe downturn of the
past few trading days, platinum tumbled
$11 Tuesday to $343 an ounce in
London, 33% below its peak of $515.
Palladium slid $8 to $183, down 26%
from its August peak of $247.

"The market is worried about the Asian
crisis, and funds and investors who were
previously bullish are selling," said
Jeremy Coombes, marketing general
manager at precious-metals refiner
Johnson Matthey PLC.

While difficult to quantify, larger
supplies from Russia, the world's biggest
producer of palladium and the
second-largest miner of platinum after
South Africa, are hitting the market, Mr.
Coombes said. In the first half of the
year, platinum and palladium prices
soared because Russian shipments were
delayed in customs, traders say. That
interruption will reduce platinum
shipments by Russia to 700,000 ounces
this year from 1.2 million ounces in
1996, while its palladium supplies will
sink to 3.2 million ounces from 5.6
million ounces, Johnson Matthey
estimates. However, the Russians have
stepped up sales this fall to make up for
lost ground, traders in London, Zurich
and Japan say.

The collapse of the platinum and
palladium markets, particularly since the
end of last week, has occurred even
though gold stabilized at depressed
levels around $285 an ounce and silver
surged 12 cents to $5.97 an ounce, a
dealer at a Japanese trading house says.
Potential U.S. and European buyers are
worried that prices could fall further
because the Japanese economy is weak.
Jewelers, the motor industry, electronics
makers and other buyers in Japan
accounted for 42% of global platinum
demand last year and 36% of palladium
consumption, Johnson Matthey

The Japanese jewelry industry took a big
hit from the country's economic
slowdown and higher consumption taxes
in April, said Johnson Matthey in its
latest monthly report. Japanese
platinum imports fell 8% in the first 10
months of 1997 from a year earlier to
1.69 million ounces, the report said. In
the past few days, Japanese speculators
also were dumping the two metals, a
trader said.

"Buyers are holding back because they
want to limit positions ahead of the year
end," a trader said. "But platinum is
cheap, and both metals are needed to
make auto catalysts that must meet
tougher antipollution requirements," the
trader said. Purchases should rise in the
new year and prices should recover, the
trader said.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:04 - ID#287367)
Hey Bart, Are you cookin' the numbers? Gold only goes DOWN, Dontcha know?!?

Gold 289.20 +5.50 07:58 Silver 6.03 +0.05 07:47

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:08 - ID#286410)
DBC ticker
US, Germany refuse more money for IMF bailout.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:10 - ID#93232)
Dear StarShine:
Phillies= 1 oz. Austrian Philharmoniker
UsaGold= broker's name
I agree that's a painfully long time to wait for puddin'!
My best wishes to you and yours for the Holidays. Sorry 'bout the confusion.

Dear farfel:
Predicting is a hazardous sport. Ignorance is a self-punishing condition.
I'm not sure the toilet will flush here in about five minutes...and it has a reasonably good performance record. Now...refuting and ignoring the opinion humanity has chosen to adopt on the value of gold throughout thousands of years....I say ...Who are you? And, Who will you become?

If after relentless observation and soul searching, you still think gold will be of little or no should short the hell out of the market. We are all either buyers or, you know what I am. A fire-breathing, bad-to-the-bone Goldbug from hell! GO GOLDBUGS!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:10 - ID#25588)
Long Feb Gold from 284.8
If long Gold from 284.8 or lower move your stop to breakeven, you now have a free no risk trade. If Feb gold closes above 292 ( still a big if ) plan on adding to your position on a pullback. This should be the last low risk entry point before an acceleration of this move up into Jan. continues. The A/D was more then 1.5/1.0 yesterday on the SnP as it approached 982.00, the short trade was canceled

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:15 - ID#364147)
@ Farfel
Could you repeat 'that' please~~~~~~~~~

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:18 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton
Holy Sh!t---Feb. Gold up 5.60 and we got an offer on the house ( a Judge in New Orleans ) ----here comes da judge---here comes da judge~~~~~~~~~

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:22 - ID#398105)
FarFetched.... where are you

G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

Where is FARFETCHED he off to Mars, AGAIN.

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:32 - ID#427357)

The ORACLE of the Orient long absent from our website has returned with a vengeance in his scathing rebuttal of Central Bank spewing that gold is dead, that gold is no longer a hedge against economic and currency chaos, etc. etc. His succinct and extremely well-documented opinion concludes that Central Bank braying is RUBBISH, RUBBISH AND MORE RUBBISH.

The ORACLE proves beyond a shadow of doubt that the only defense southeast Asians had... AND WILL HAVE - against the on-going currency chaos, stock market turmoil and the regions crumbling bank system is to invest in GOLD. The staunchest and most fanatical anti-GOLDBUGS are obliged to concede to the irrefutable evidence that GOLD is the ONLY SAFE HARBOR vis--vis the looming and devastating Domino Effect engulfing the area:

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:35 - ID#325284)
clarification of the clarification
Studio R: Austrian Philharmoniker is 1 TROZ not 1 OZ.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:36 - ID#258427)
Put and Take
The world giveth ( silver up ) and comex taketh away ( silver 0.00 ) ...Oh My!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:41 - ID#26793)
Hashimoto reveals some details of new tax plan

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:41 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton....hi BillD
WSJ sh!t:
December 17, 1997

Liberated Won Falls Back,
As Korea Turns to Elections


The South Korean currency fell back Wednesday, underscoring warnings
by bankers and economists that the country's financial gyrations aren't over
and a real risk remains of loan defaults by Korean companies.

Meanwhile, the country's attentions are turning to the upcoming election.
South Koreans vote for a new president Thursday in what could be the
closest election they have ever known.

In Wednesday's trading, the won fell slightly when local importers
purchased the dollar, traders said. The U.S. currency closed at 1,481
won, compared with 1,425 won Tuesday.

The currency, the won, rose 9.7% to 1,425 won to the dollar Tuesday on
the first trading day after the government on Monday removed a 10%
daily limit on the currency's movement. The rise follows a 9.3% gain on
Monday, extending the currency's recovery from a 27% depreciation last
week against the dollar.

Last week's cascading fall had raised the specter of widespread defaults
by Korean banks and companies with large foreign-currency obligations,
torpedoing confidence in Korean stocks and driving the market's key
index down 17.4% last week. Stock prices Tuesday shared in the
currency's rebound, climbing 4.8%, on top of their 7.2% rise Monday.
The market closed up 3.5% Wednesday.

Though the free fall in South Korean financial markets abated Monday and
Tuesday, the turnaround doesn't mean Korean companies are out of
danger, bankers and traders said. More than $15 billion in short-term
loans are coming due by the end of the year.

Need for Local Currency

Many companies had been hoarding dollars, a prime cause of the collapse
of the won and a focus of international attention so far. But nervousness
about the economy has also shriveled the availability of the local currency.
Troubled commercial banks have curtailed lending, soaring interest rates
have raised borrowing costs, and 14 of the country's 30 merchant banks,
which specialized in short-term lending, have been suspended by the

That has left companies unable to raise the local currency they need to
maintain operations, threatening to send more businesses into bankruptcy.
The won shortage is now forcing currency hoarders to sell off some of
their dollars for won. Thus, the dire need for won stands alongside the
reviving confidence in the government's economic management as a reason
for the Korean currency's rebound.

The markets took the floating of the won as a sign that the government
believes the won is close to a bottom. Investors also were encouraged by
reports that Seoul would soon be receiving a bigger share of a $57 billion
aid package signed with the IMF on Dec. 3. According to the Finance
Ministry, $5.5 billion already has arrived from the IMF, with another $3.5
billion expected Thursday. The Asian Development Bank and World Bank
have promised to send $2 billion each by the end of the month, earlier than
planned, the ministry said. However, an ADB official denied that the bank
had committed to sending any funds by year end.

Danger of Volatility

Bankers and economists said that despite the improvement in sentiment,
South Korea's economic crisis is far from over, and possible defaults by
businesses on foreign debts still loom. "I am not encouraged at all by the
recent market activity," says James Lee, a general manager at Hana Bank
in Seoul.

One concern of investors is that the long transition period between
Thursday's presidential election and the inauguration in late February poses
a potential leadership vacuum. Local bankers and newspaper editors-and,
quietly, U.S. officials say President Kim Young Sam should resign
immediately after the election and hand power to his successor. Mr. Kim
has resisted such suggestions.

The campaign ended Wednesday in what appeared to be a dead heat
between opposition leader Kim Dae Jung and the majority party's Lee Hoi
Chang, with about 20% of voters still undecided.

Rhee In Je, a provincial governor representing a splinter opposition group,
was a distant third in the polls, but well positioned to be a spoiler.

Analysts predicted a turnout of about 75%, down from the nearly 82%
who voted in the last presidential election in 1992 and a reflection of the
apathy produced by uninspiring candidates. The winner is not expected to
be known until Friday morning, possibly later.

Another worry is Korea's vulnerability to a vicious circle of won selling.
Bad news could drive the currency into a new downward cycle, and a
new downward cycle could increase the bad news. And the scale of the
currency's recovery Tuesday ( and its dip early Wednesday ) underscores
one of the dangers of the free-floating won: volatility.

The Korean government may not have the resources to smooth out the
movements of the foreign-exchange markets. The Finance Ministry says
usable foreign-exchange reserves are expected to be $7.3 billion at the
end of 1997. Meanwhile, foreign debt coming due in less than one year,
including debts held by overseas branches and subsidiaries of Korean
banks, totals about $100 billion.

To be sure, Korea doesn't need to have one dollar on hand for each dollar
of debt coming due; if foreign creditors regain confidence in Korean
businesses' ability to repay, those creditors will roll over the loans and the
country can get by with fewer dollars on hand.

Debt Pressure at Chaebols

But the high debt levels at Korea's conglomerates, called chaebols, will
continue to send companies scrambling to find dollars to meet debt
payments, economists say. Some of the short-term debt is being rolled
over-but some isn't. Japanese banks have pulled $9 billion out of Korea
this year, or nearly 40% of their Korean loans outstanding at the end of

Nor has the economy seen the full negative effects of higher interest rates
and other aspects of the IMF program. Economic growth is expected to
slow to 3% or less, from about 6% this year. Slower growth could put
pressure on the chaebols and lead to more bankruptcies and further strain
on the financial sector.

Shin Poong Pharmaceutical Co. said Tuesday it defaulted on debts for two
consecutive days and will file for court protection from creditors. The
Hanwha Group requested 200 billion won ( $140 million ) in emergency
loans for its oil-refining affiliate, Hanwha Energy Co.; creditor banks said
they will approve the request. Hanwha also said it is negotiating with an
unnamed foreign oil company to sell all or part of Hanwha Energy.
Hanwha last month said it would sell real estate and assets to cut its debt

Many bankers and economists, therefore, expect the current upturn in
Korea's markets to be temporary. Overseas investors are signaling that
they expect the won to weaken from its current levels in the offshore
nondeliverable forward-contract market, in which foreigners can buy
currency contracts that move in line with the won but are settled in dollars.
In three-month contracts, the won is trading at around 1,600 won to the
dollar, significantly weaker than current values.

Clive McDonnell, a senior economist at Socgen-Crosby Securities in
Hong Kong, estimates that the won will reach 1,800 won to the dollar by
year end. "We're in a grace period now, but we don't expect it to last
more than a week or two," he says.

Return to top of page
Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:45 - ID#57232)
Gold up?
Crystal Ball, All: It's all virtual reality -- the penultimate paper! We have been watching down for so long we don't know what up is! Makes me dizzy haveing to look the other way for a change, but I don't object.

Seriously, I could not log in at all last night. Anyone else have a problem? Was that our best Kitco bullish indicator in operation? The old white screen?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:46 - ID#286410)
South Africa.
( JSE All Gold ) +46.6 ( +6.73% ) up up and away...

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:46 - ID#26793)
Some economists doubtful Japanese plan is enough

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:50 - ID#31868)
Crystal Ball
I am pleased to see the above numbers. I hope that they are not a flash in the pan. Silver for sure is going up for a long, long time.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:51 - ID#57232)
Contrary Indicator
So you're at it again! No matter how contrary I am I always seem to find you doing something different! I guess there is no such thing as a contrary indicator that behaves itself.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:54 - ID#31868)
Crystal Ball
I am pleased to see the above numbers. I hope that they are not a flash in the pan. Silver for sure is going up for a long, long time.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:56 - ID#26793)
UCLA forecast says California will feel most pain from Asian turmoil

(Wed Dec 17 1997 08:56 - ID#93232)
The toilet did flush....once again....I should have never doubted it. And to the great aerobic pond did all my cares and doubts fly...bugs are friends.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:03 - ID#57232)
German Gold Shorts 8000 tonnes plus?
Haggis: Very interesting if true -- the only resource I have is the net and the right key words. I didn't know any of the CB's were reporting any shorts publically. Any other takers on how to find out? Could this be related to the presumed UBS/SBC gold trading losses and merger? Losses on shorts? Loaned gold that cannot be returned to the bank? If this is true the German shorts are the tip of the iceberg. Could ANOTHER be right that we are sitting on a missing gold powder keg, or at least a gold short derivatives scheme that is unraveling in front of our very eyes? Very, Very interesting as someone used to say. Was that TWTWTIWas?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:09 - ID#57232)
I forgot to say -- it is a pleasure to meet the genuine article -- a real gold miner -- thanks for gracing our Kitco halls, as they say. I'm still chuckling from your post on the gold cartel that we need that we already have. And perhaps we would not have been talking about needing a gold cartel if we did not already have it!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:18 - ID#258427)
@Sitting on Silver
Who ( m ) ever that big ugly guy at comex who is sitting on silver...MOVE!!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:21 - ID#201131)
The fix is in the dollar goes down
The dollar goes down and everyone lived happily ever after. Even gold.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:23 - ID#7568)
Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 Spokane Spokesman-Review

SPOKANE, Wash. ( December 17, 1997 01:00 a.m. EST ) -- Lance Seurer's life on the run ended after he decided to go out for dinner. The 20-year-old Spokane man, suspected of killing more
than 90 domesticated ferrets last month, eluded police for three weeks until he was spotted over the weekend at a local restaurant.
Smith said she was relieved that Seurer was off the streets but also surprised that he'd been arrested.

"This is not a normal act," she said. "This is not something a thinking person would do. He needs help. Otherwise, we'll just put him right back on the street and he'll do it again."

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:24 - ID#258427)
Wrong Approach ... try again..
Would that tall handsome nice person who is sitting on silver please move over. That good=looking girl over there in the corner is calling you!!
Thank you very much!!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:28 - ID#183109)
JSE site

Do you have a good site/link for the JSE? Arigato Gozaimasu.

Maybe my big Stillwater purchase yesterday wasn't so bad afterall....

Here's a very good article on SWC from last month.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:31 - ID#426220)

JTF, Haggis, D.A., ALL: Rumors are flying about Central Bank GOLD SHORTS. Some corners even suspect the shotgun marriage of the Swiss Bank Corp. and UBS may have been precipitated by unprofitable Gold transactions.

International Banking expert, Ted Butler, has described in illuminating detail the Gold price ramifications of Central Banks Gold Operations, once the ICEBERG is discovered beneath the German GOLD SHORTS. IF indeed this is the case, the LIGHTNING impact upon the yellow metals price would be ELECTRIFYING!

Over TWO months ago GOLD-EAGLE reported the Confession of the Bundesbank that it HAD BEEN MAKING GOLD LOANS FOR SOME TIME. In our comment we called special attention to a scathing critique of Central Bank Gold lending practices. The report was compiled by Ted Butler.

Mr. Butlers study, which rings with logic and clarity in emphatically stating the GOLD LENDING PRACTICE RAMIFICATIONS BY CENTRAL BANKS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE YELLOW METAL TO SOAR IN VALUE.

When Central Banks awake from their stupor & stop giving away their GOLD for free, supply side of metal fundamentals will develop an immediate vacuum & Gold prices will SOAR:

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:34 - ID#159156)
Japan Causes Gold Trend Change?

Boys and girls, we could finally be on our way. We won't know for a while whether we've seen the ultimate low in gold, but I think a bounce is inevitable now. Let's hope it's a really big bounce.

Did the Japanese government do enough to stabilize its financial house? I think this question will determine gold's short-term future. Gold has been on a steep slide since the October Crisis began. Korea seems to have a good chance of stabilizing, if they don't do something stupid. If
Japan stabilizes too, then the whole region will breathe a sigh of relief. The US dollar will lose some of it's recent strength, sending the US$ price of gold up. The price has already turned up in most every other developed-country currency. If you're short gold, or long US dollars or US bonds, I'd suggest the sidelines. ( Soon it may be time to short the S&P. )

Well, did the japanese do it? The analysts' early reactions are mostly "no". Maybe they've been a bit hasty with their criticism.

The Japanese economy contracted by about US$71 billion recently. The Japanese governemnt has done the following:

US$15.7 billion in personal income tax cuts, which are expected to boost both consumption and saving by roughly $8 billion each.

US$6.6 billion in corporate and other tax cuts. ( I assume 100% consumption. )

US$78 billion currency ( yen ) printed in the form of bonds, and given to the deposit insurance fund. ( Let's hope this is enough. )

These actions are being criticized as being too little. Consider this ( and remember that I am no economist ) . The $8 billion in savings will help raise bank reserves and probably support $30 - $40 billion ( or more ) in loans over the next year as the original money is loaned out, deposited by someone else, loaned out again, etc. ( Let's assume 100% goes to consumption. ) Increases in consumption have a multiplier effect on the economy ( as A buys from B who buys from C, etc. ) of, say 2.5 times. $45 - $55 billion increased consumption x 2.5 = about $110 - 145 billion in economic stimutation. I'd say that's quite a shot in the arm!

I'm sure there are other spinoff effects too, such as inflation boosting interest rates which will boost inflation... Higher interest rates will raise the income of the best savers in the world ( 30%-40%, compared to a US rate of 2% ) . Stronger consumers will spend more money, and so on.

My point is that the Japanese *have* saved the day for gold. The yen will stabilize, the US dollar will fall, gold will rise, the shorts will cover.

Have a great day!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:36 - ID#286410)

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:38 - ID#258427)
Gold Stox on the move

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:43 - ID#398105)
What happens when Gold Derivatives fall short............

G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

An example ...On May 1990, Drexal Burnham Lambert ( DBL ) filed for Chapter 11 status in the US. At that time, their commodity trading arm had Central Bank gold on loan, mainly from the Bank of Portugal. The Bank of Portugal was obliged to join the rest of DBL's creditors. This alarmed many other CBs who, temporarily, withdrew their GOLD from the "pool of liquidity", thus causing a sharp upward pressure on the cost of borrowing gold. Now Central Banks may be expected to deal in gold derivatives on a reasonably short term ( 3 months? ) time scale. If the gold price increases to the extent that calls came into money, then it may be expected that the Central Banks may simply deliver GOLD against their exposure. Does this explain their attempts on keeping the gold price down?! So, the question is raised.......are the gold derivative markets over dealt. Have a number of Central Banks possibly over extended their position in their attempt to "rob Pet

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:45 - ID#57232)
3T3W -- yes -- that's it!
Vronsky: Any idea how we can verify Haggis suspicions? If he is right we may be coming up on the grandaddy of a market gold shortage ( I may not have the right terminology, but you know what I mean! ) . If this is so -- how will the CB's handle it? What sort of damage control? Or -- are we past damage control altogether?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:46 - ID#183109)
Thanks Stalder. I owe ya one.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:49 - ID#31868)
When you are doing business with a banker and you get that warm feeling when you shake hands on a deal. Look down and you will see they are pissing on your shoes.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:53 - ID#426220)
XAU sees GAP opening UP 3.40 to 72 ( that's +5% ) . The Intra-Day charts of the precious metals are orbital and a sight for sore eyes:

(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:54 - ID#398105)
Gold Derivatives


My message dropped out.

Central Banks....rob Peter to pay Paul. Do we have a comparible stuff up to that of the London Metal Exchange and copper. Clearly in the case of GOLD the implications and much more serious, especially when "paper currancies" are self egniting at the same time. Bad timing "Old Chap", but possibly very good timing for GOLD

Aye it makes you wonder.


(Wed Dec 17 1997 09:56 - ID#426220)
tolerant1: many thx for the Banker Joke du Jour! I got my daily laugh ration on that one.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:03 - ID#398105)

Sorry Lads, a typo - e should be i.


(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:05 - ID#316232)
Todays gold rally
Methinks everyone is too cautious. This rally has indications of being for real. All aboard for a good move, maybe 300.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:05 - ID#426220)
JTF ( 3T3W -- yes -- that's it! ) : The only one I know who definitedly qualifies as an oracle expert on this particular subject is Ted Butler.If anyone knows him well, pls contact him to politely suggest that Noblesse Oblige... that he awakened us to the dire ramifications of Central Bankers screwing around business they have NO BUSINESS IN, therefore we need an update from Mr Butler. I am absolutely certain he will be able to give an in-the-ball-park estimate of the gold price impact when the crap finally hits the fan, blowing the excrement all over Greenspan's puss.

W--H--E--RRRRRRR-E IS B-U-T-L-E-R????????

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:11 - ID#426220)
XAU GAPs UP 3.62 to 72.2 ( that's +5.3% ) . The Intra-Day charts of the
precious metals are orbital and a sight for sore eyes:

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:16 - ID#258427)
Dow Rally ??
What happened to the +50 dow rally??


(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:18 - ID#426220)
Government Bonds, Money and South-East Asia: The Great Deception

If we accept that government bonds and currencies are at best an illusion of wealth, and that stock markets trading at 5 times book value may be over-priced in view of falling profits and currency upheaval, then the only investment alternative is gold. Realizing this, governments have driven down the price of gold. In order for the world to continue to believe in the government promoted illusion, the price of gold must continue to fall. If the world were not on the edge of an economic collapse, the price of gold would not be so low. An analysis by John Kutyn:

Early Riser
(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:19 - ID#228275)
LarryN: Love your note about too cautious and maybe we could get to $300!! I must repeat the Templeton quote here earlier: "Bull markets born on pessimism, grow on sketicism, mature on optimism, die on euphoria"

A year ago we had some predictions here of $1000.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:19 - ID#316232)
Justification for rally? Gold up, starting in Sydney market. ( not just another Comex fakeout ) Jberg up over 5% this morning; Japan decision to cut tax kicks dollar in the butt, dollar down to 127 yen/$. 30 year bond rate up .03. Most gold stocks look like they just got an energy shot in the butt. Toronto up strong. Time to grab hold and hang on.

If I'm wrong, I'll go back to my cave.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:26 - ID#41229)
Japans overnight run
Is it possible the action in last nights market in Japan allowed a window of opportunity to get out of the paper and into the physical, hence the ralley retracement?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:31 - ID#398105)
It's late in Kalgoorlie..........

I cannot say G'Day, but I can say G'Nite.

A passing thought, as a Geologist I am always ASTOUNDED that people take GOLD for granted. To find it is difficult, to mine it is difficult, to process it is difficult........ and then the Bankers get it. We have a street if Kalgoorlie called Hay Street, where the Ladies of the Night do business. I reckon that a Banker would get himself confussed in Hay Street, or maybe he would simply try and do the Contango ( Is that an Argentian dance ?! ) .

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:33 - ID#390214)
Merril Lynch (the 'paper bull' is cresting and facing add'l correction)
The major event in the world stock markets in 1997 was the unraveling of the global bull market, which had made

major progress in 1995 and 1996 and then accelerated into a climactic buying phase in the first half of 1997. The recent

deterioration in the world's equity markets is likely a warning or sign that the post-1994 global bull market is cresting

and facing additional correction in 1998, Merrill said.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:33 - ID#41229)
People speak of hesistation !
Once you have pissed on a fence and found it to be charge with electricity, you do some checking before pissing again.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:35 - ID#31868)
Glad to bring on a chuckle.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:38 - ID#426220)

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:44 - ID#7568)

At the risk of repeating myself, and again in tribute to GSC, the gold stocks are outperforming bullion. This is good.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:47 - ID#426220)

Internationally acclaimed analyst Gene Inger, is beginning to become interested in GOLDs prospects.  doubt the yellow metal is somewhere near at least an interim low point. We view it as a value buy, but not very good as a hedge. As far as gold goes, we prefer stocks to bullion. His complete intra-week report at:

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:48 - ID#258427)
XAU up 6+%
Gold up 1.5%

Thanks DA

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:52 - ID#201238)
vertigo - an Arden equivalent? Indeed!

Vertigo - it appears that there is a lot of jockeying around on Comex after a delivery notice is issued. If all of the notice for delivery for december were exercised, Comex would be empty of all gold, both eligible and registered. The open interest in Dec is about 500 contracts, yet 500 contracts traded the other day, so it is possible for a short to buy back his notice.

I am particularly interested in the experiences of TylerRose and others in this process. I really appreciate their telling us events as they transpire.

It is very interesting to me that Comex silver inventories drop in chunks, like plane loads of 3 million oz! as I posted the other day. It is also curious to me that the drop in Comex gold stocks is about a ton or so every so ofter - 30,000 oz plus or minus - just seems like a common amount. So far, we have seen about half of the gold that 'appeared' on comex prior to FND disappear, but the 'eligible' stocks keep dropping.

Let me assure you, there is no Arden equivalent. There are many others in the world with more talent and ability that I, but there is only one me!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:53 - ID#57232)
Gold mine!
Haggis: You are a gold mine of information! No pun intended. G'nite to downunder from upover!

All: We have a fledgling gold stock rally allright -- but not yet confirmed by the bullion. Following Aurator's early AM quotes from the Gnomes of Zurich, caution is required. A euphoric gold bug as we know from hard experience is a dangerous state of existence. Likely to get squashed by falling objects, usually very dense, gold-colored, and rectangular in shape. A link to reality is a requisite for survival at all times.

A "solid" gold rally will be unmistakable to all -- even those who are not gold bugs. I will keep most of my powder dry -- for now.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:54 - ID#287367)
Your observations are fundamental yet perceptive and profound. You are the salt of the earth, and I salute you! Oy! Kick those damn gold shorts in the Kishkas.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:55 - ID#237164)
High rise ...
check out

there is also blanchard ... and I asked this group if they
knew of others, but have not received any new sites.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:57 - ID#426220)
BillD & D.A. - Market Tivia: Historically, on-balance in a gold bull market, the precious metals stock will out-perform - due to intrinsic leverage - the bullion by 3:1 to 5:1.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 10:57 - ID#390214)
WASHINGTON ( MktNews ) - C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute for International Economics, said

Tuesday a priority in stemming the Asian financial crisis is to ensure there are no new waves of devaluations which

would have "disastrous" consequences on world markets.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 11:02 - ID#224149)
It's Xmas
When the BIG boys are away the lemons play.Away to shop for gifts.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 11:06 - ID#57232)
The paper for gold
tolerant1, Vronsky: Your comments remind me of a contractor who once conned me out over several thousand dollars. The reason he was so successful doing the same thing with his wife, and several other customers was that be began believing his own "conn". He ran off with his kids and the cash and left his wife with the bills. She threw him in jail when she caught up with him. The rest of us got nothing except paper -- bills.

The guru's of paper have done the same thing to themselves over the years, and so they cannot believe anything except their own "lie" that gold is worthless and paper is king. That is part of the reason why their story sounds so good.

I suspect that when you roll in the concept of expanding debt and inflatable paper money as the lie, and that the "perpetrators" eventually believe their own lies, then you have the essence of the Kondratiev wave.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 11:16 - ID#183109)
bullion coins

For coins, this seems to be the best around. Anyone got anywhere better?

If so, please don't let me know today as I just placed my order. : )

(Wed Dec 17 1997 11:18 - ID#31868)
MARKET UPDATE ( 12/17/97 ) AM-----What do the Japanese have against December? In what could go down as a surprise attack the equivalent of a financial Pearl Harbor, Japan opened a two pronged attack on the dollar while America slept. On one flank, the Japanese government announced a 5 trillion yen stimulus package including a tax cut to bolster its ailing economy and banking sector. In a another thrust, the Bank of Japan declared war on the dollar selling aggressively whenever the greenback stuck its head out of the water. Anyone who reads this report knows that we have long predicted these events. The Japanese surprise is probably the result of another round of currency devaluations and stock market declines which recently began in Thailand and the Philippines where the Asian currency crisis had its humble beginnings early this year. The possiblitly of Round Two, it appears, forced Japan's hand. The strong dollar, some analysts including this one believe, has been at the root of the spreading currency and equities' breakdown. "The Dollar Must Come Down". The bond market is in full retreat this morning and the dollar is dropping rapidly. Gold buying has become aggressive in a move which started in Hong Kong overnight. Strong Asian physical buying that started last week gathered pace. Although there are no reports of short covering thus far this morning, we wouldn't be surprised to see it begin in earnest as soon as the big players determine whether or not this move is for real. If short covering begins, it could have a trampoline effect on the price. The very large short position will have to be covered and if the price gets out of control the shorts could be routed. We will watch closely to see what develops. COMEX gold stocks were down a whopping 36,856 ounces overnight indicating once more that somebody's buying gold out there -- and large amounts of it. That's it for this morning. We will report again if we have anything to add.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Dec 17 1997 11:22 - ID#284177)
Steves specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

Change in sentiment puts shine into gold

World enters the slow lane

Indonesia faces up to crisis

US rejects IMF call for funding increase

In $US terms, base metals are in crisis


The penny starts to drop in the US

Anxious IMF seeks more cash

Pentagon to give all troops anthrax vaccine

Won nation: a currency float to the rescue

Indonesia worse than Thailand

Bargain-hunters take chance on miners

NZ voters are wary of M.A.I. free-trade treaty

Red alert for Korea's banks - Korea is in DEEP TROUBLE NOW!

ALSO - The latest from the Intelligence Digest:
US prepares for mass casualties in Korean war
The US has asked Japan to draw up contingency plans for receiving
120,000 casualties in the event of a new Korean war.

Too many eggs in an Asian basket case
No more Letters of Credit for Korean Manufacturers!!!!!!!!!!


ASIA'S NEXT CASUALTY? Bad banks could clobber China

Whistling past the graveyard in Asia

Rupiah now down 100% for the year

Billion-dollar buyouts lead attack on bankruptcy
Korean Shipbuilding Group had 20 times debt to equity!

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

(Wed Dec 17 1997 11:33 - ID#201131)
Japan and other stuff
Japan is telling us that the dollar is going down and they are going to reflate. 80 billion dollars worth of 10 year bonds is alot of money. What they arent saying but are doing is actively selling the US dollar which at first seems like a strange thing to do when they are in a severe recession. But it makes sense. A weak currency in asia right now turns into a collapsed currency in asia so they arent that interested in taking the yen down versus the dollar. But what they are really afraid of is the yen going up versus the other asian tigers. So again I will say the easiest way to bail japan out is nail the dollar big time which takes the heat off of Southeast asia and in a round about way fixes japans currency problems with the Asian tigers.Remember the asian currencies were fixed to the dollar and not the yen.Meanwhile in the US a lower dollar would actually be a welcome sight by just about everybody. The key point of this whole transaction was getting japan to open up and print the money to stimulate their economy rather than try and just take all of the US money through higher exports and a higher trade surplus with the US. Japan cant loan any money to Korea and niether can the US because of political pressures ( rightly so I might add ) so the dollar goes down which raises the smaller asian currencies and japan gets out of this mess looking like heros by cutting taxes. Politicians will love the effect in Japan of this whole deal. Meanwhile gold goes up because everyone eventually will realize that the last SAFE currency of the world ( the US dollar ) is going to go down and so is their invetment in it

(Wed Dec 17 1997 11:34 - ID#254269)
@ Steve- Perth
Steve, I'm an Aussie businessman living in Dallas, Texas. Just wanted to say I appreciate your newsposts. I get ARF online, but your posts
give me a "quick overview". I'm originally from Sydney but do have a
sister living in Perth ( Armadale ) .

(Wed Dec 17 1997 11:41 - ID#426220)

The ORACLE of the Orient long absent from our website has returned with a vengeance in his scathing rebuttal of Central Bank spewing that gold is dead, that gold is no longer a hedge against economic and currency chaos, etc. etc. His succinct and extremely well-documented opinion concludes that Central Bank braying is RUBBISH, RUBBISH AND MORE RUBBISH.

The ORACLE proves beyond a shadow of doubt that the only defense southeast Asians had... AND WILL HAVE - against the on-going currency chaos, stock market turmoil and the regions crumbling bank system is to invest in GOLD. The staunchest and most fanatical anti-GOLDBUGS are obliged to concede to the irrefutable evidence that GOLD is the ONLY SAFE HARBOR vis--vis the looming and devastating Domino Effect engulfing the area:

(Wed Dec 17 1997 11:45 - ID#316232)
What I mean as caution is the readiness to withdraw from the conflict ( sell ) if the tide turns. Otherwise I'll be happy to ride the bull to 1000 or more. My forecasting decisions are strictly short term, hoping that any short term rally will turn into a long term move above 3-2-5 or more. If it does, I'll already be on board.

Fundamentally, I believe that the Japanese tax decision is a major change in their attitude/tactics toward the Asian situation created in a large part by the high dollar. If they support the yen at a low point of 129 yen/$, then they probably have decided that they are willing to sell T-bonds instead of just using them as collateral with the US FED. It is a big signal to the other Asian markets, as evident in the gold market last night in Asia.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 11:48 - ID#42371)
Of course there is only one Arden!
But you post and run and so sometimes we have to look to others to answer our questions. Us being the initiated who don't fully understand the machinations of Comex/LME but are able to lose money with the best of them nevertheless. I presume the 5.7% drop in the Comex gold stocks in one day, doesn't add up to much since no-one seems too excited by it.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 11:50 - ID#316232)
XAU5.. your 11:33. I could not have said it better. That sums it up.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 11:51 - ID#42371)
Of course there is only one ARDEN!
But you post and run and so sometimes we have to look to others to answer our questions. Us being the initiated who don't fully understand the machinations of Comex/LME but are able to lose money with the best of them nevertheless. I presume the 5.7% drop in the Comex gold stocks in one day, doesn't add up to much since no-one seems too excited by it.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 11:56 - ID#368251)
Dow down
HOW can this be, DOW down after posting early gains.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 12:14 - ID#22956)
Looking to pick my bottom??....huh?
JMARK - hmmmmmmm.....I don't know what to say.....thanks? thanks??......I'll leave that one alone.


you have not heard my position on gold? You must have been 'out' for a while. I am still in the bear camp and w/w. I have been out since a few weeks ago. I am waiting for a 'sign' to re-enter the market again for another 'dive'. This new rally is quite nice indeed and am watching closely.....I feel that gold will not let me down. It has been my friend, ohmy....and I will hate to lose that wink ( I made a bet with D.A. for a tiddly-wink-tenth oz  - gold to 280 before 300 ) .

I have not said much about Plat because it is going the wrong way. I have been waiting for a confirmed turn around and every time I think there is one it goes down farther. It won't get much lower I presume. w/w on that one ( sidelined )

Silver....hmmmmm...I have lost more than I gained here ( but i am in the game right now, making it back?? ) ....perhaps you should ask a real ANALyst Expert Silver Guru like LGB....the 'legend-in-his-own-mind'.......he made a great call WAY before ALL others ( I know because I read about it in one or all of his THOUSAND posts regarding the subject ) . If that horse ( es ass ) wasn't dead before it certainly is now. Anyway, I will consider putting on some shorts if the charts show-me-the-money! ;- )

now i can say no more........except.....

The Bulls will be slayed tonight.............when they play the Lakers...oh my!! go lakers..........I'm going....



hey Ted.....who is this ROR dude?? C'mon ROR, fess up!! You too George!! Take off your mask and show yourself to the group.....I'm not big on suprises.... :- ( And while I'm at it.....let's see what ANOTHER looks like.....I have a feeling it is someone we know already....

(Wed Dec 17 1997 12:16 - ID#246224)
I think we were following this rather excitedly in November. Then ALL OF A SUDDEN the withdrawls stopped and then a large inflow occured ( only registered stocks, I might add ) . It has been wretching to watch the numbers but to then see gold drop badly. Actually the eligible stocks in Comex are less than 50% of the total. If most of the withdrawls occured from eligible stocks ( as is usual ) then we have a much gfreater than 5.7% drop. But Arden and others have not posted the splits for a while so who knows.

What with the sudden interest in Asia I believe we will have a very nice rally back up to 3-2-5 or so.. maybe.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 12:23 - ID#333232)
Turning on a pair 'o dimes? XAUweee!
Is that a golden light at the end of the tunnel...
( or just that same old 800lb gorilla with a flashlight looking for a place to sit? )

Waiting until Friday close for short term confirmation. Cautiously optimistic, but this thing has an ursine sucking sound about it.
Target was XAU62/spot276/DOW8200-8425 on Jan 1, 1998 ( hmmmm. )
Nihon-go forces re-assessment. : )

BWBMWA ( Been wrong before maybe wrong again )

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 17 1997 12:23 - ID#287367)
Yours of 11:18 is simple yet elegant! The rising dollar is strangling those countries whose currencies are tied to the dollar, which in turn is destroying the Japanese economy. Torpedoing the dollar now is self-defense and self-preservation. This is not a counter-trend rally in gold. When the Japanese are done sinking the dollar, GOLD will be the only currency left standing!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 12:23 - ID#335184)
Nip "stimulus package" does nothing to solve systemic & cronic disease of bad loans fostering massive overcapacity in Asain Tigers. The Jap domestic banking system must be uprooted & replaced, which apparrently is politically unfeasable since corruption, as westerners understand the term, is endemic to the fiancial & political community alike. Rescession/Depression will continue & "dirty float" tactics will fail as Yen resumes it's tailspin. These actions will not knock U.S. $ off it's upward march.
Current upsurge in gold is temporary response and will move lower on U.S. manipulation ( $250/220 ) .
Last night on MONEY LINE/CNN Wayne Angel, side kick to AG, said,"weakness in AU showed U.S.$ was good as gold". This is precisely why U.S. FED/TREASURY are orchestrating AU lending and welcoming EURO strategy to lower AU price.
IMHO?GUESS is that it will take a hugh hedge fund attack against speculative shorts in Au to break the CB's grip on AU price and knock the $ off or a major U.S. stock crash which is the more likely scenario.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 12:25 - ID#22956)
I would like to rememberence of a great......
Hats off to the Hep.....again. When asked ( months ago ) where gold will be in December he said 290. Well???? It reached 289.70 ( comex Dec,todays high ) . THAT is good enough for me.........Hoorah!! Those who took heed profited. To the OLD Hep ( not the new hep ) but the OLD HepRatCat.....the cat, the only cat. His crystal ball was workin'!!!!!!!

hip-hip hoorah, hip-hip hoorah!! What say next Hepper??!? Your minions await......... ;- ) search the planet for the old cat


(Wed Dec 17 1997 12:44 - ID#372344)
@ newtron GOLD to go to $220??
In your last post you stated that Former Fed Gov. W. Angell correctly
stated that the perceprion of the US$ today is that it is as good as
Gold. However he did not state that he expected the price of Gold to go
lower to 220, what he in fact said is that gold could move somewhat lower possibly to 260 level, however he hoped that it would do so
gradually and not abruptly.This tells me a few things, that THEY are
indeed worried about DEFLATION, that Gold is not likely to go below
260, and that the GAME is now PRINTING paper money while
at the same time undertaking a PR campaign to give the perception
that they are not! I have previously posted some factors that would devalue the US $ vs Gold and hope to post additional factors soon.
I do agree that the rise in Gold will be hard fought and gradual for now
as previously posted, but as the US$ is challenged for the World's Reserve Currency we will IMHO see MAJOR moves in Gold vs US$.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 12:46 - ID#201238)
post and run

Allen the eligible gold stocks are still around 165,000 oz. The drop has been in the registered stocks. Rest assured that if the eligible stcoks had been dropping a ton per day that I would have been shouting it here. I think the registered stocks are just for show, at least the movement in and out just prior to FND.

Veritgo, I hate to post and run but I have responsibilities to my stockholders to find lots of gold and silver and make them rich! Too many of them read this site for me to spend all day in dialog!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 12:48 - ID#26669)
catching falling knives? Got to stick in the ground some time!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 12:49 - ID#254269)
Wall Street Journal Edtorial

Today's WSJ has two interesting articles; First is an editorial titled

Socialist International re Rubin and Camdesus. It is too long for me to post here as I get the printed edition of WSJ. I can quote the last paragraph; "Before giving them another big dollop of money, someone should ask Rubin and Camdesus whether the aim is to bail out the good old boys of world business or to protect the inherently risky but ultimately vast potential of global free markets ".

Second article is on page A23 and is an op-ed piece by Holman Jenkins Jr. titled "Living in Deflationary Times ? Hold Your Breath "..

Perhaps someone who has access to WSJ on-line can "paste" the

two articles ?.


(Wed Dec 17 1997 12:59 - ID#285233)
At What Point Could We See Short Covering Rally????
Suppose, perhaps very foolishly, that gold is on its way up. ( don't laugh too hard!! ) . At what gold price, do you think, this could spark short covering rally??
I have read Veneroso's and Blanchard's opinions that given the tremendous 8,000 ton short position in the market, we could see a $40-$50 up day in gold if/when shorts are forced to cover.
Any estimate on the gold price target that could ignite this situation????

(Wed Dec 17 1997 13:09 - ID#410114)

(Wed Dec 17 1997 13:11 - ID#335184)
I thooght Angell's comment about printing " funny money " back in the 70's was particularly amusing in light of current double didget M3 growth. A feign is defintely in the works. As Inspector Cleaseau would say, " I love a good ploy."
I did not say Angell predicted AU @ $220. This just My Holy Opinion extrapolating from his figure of $250 & factoring in Government propensity to bollix/overshoot every thing it does!
I agree with your premise, watch what they do not what they say & I look forward to your thoughts re what will bring the U.S.$ down. Gold & the $ are locked in mortal combat. my bet is that AU will prevail, but how & when is the 64k/ we are allstruggling with!
THANKS for your comments.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 13:11 - ID#410114)
been away for a month
Hello all I've been away for a month and would like to know if anyone of the regulars has dropped out.

I used to post under the name of kldjflajfl;


(Wed Dec 17 1997 13:12 - ID#285233)
At What Point Could We See Short Covering Rally????

Suppose, perhaps very foolishly, that gold is on its way up. ( don't laugh too hard!! ) . At what gold price,

do you think, this could spark short covering rally??

I have read Veneroso's and Blanchard's opinions that given the tremendous 8,000 ton short position in the

market, we could see a $40-$50 up day in gold if/when shorts are forced to cover.

Any estimate on the gold price target that could ignite this situation????

(Wed Dec 17 1997 13:28 - ID#256254)
A sea of GREEN.
What a nice day it has been. Next stop, the close.

Normally we would see the drive down into the close. Will it hold today?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 13:30 - ID#246224)
Steady @ No Hard Numbers, but just a feeling
Only when some government does a really stupid thing that is so obvious that it hurts to even think about it. I think the shorts are expecting the governments to keep the peace on the Au front. If someone blows it big time, then IMVHO we go straight up. Until then we are locked into whatever range they want basicly because there is no strong demand to overwhelm their controllers.

Maybe this Asian buying will provide this. And I really hope that it does. The break in their markets vis a vis the US$ weakening may be used by the wealthiest and most astute to move to gold in a big way. Hong Kong only began to move the Au market up last night. It would seem we need a number of strong days like this to really set the tone. New York seems to be supporting the level of 2-8-7 ( and up a bit in silver to 6.00 ) . I'm always interested in seeing what happens after London closes. There almost always is a bit of a dip at close. We'll see.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 13:36 - ID#227238)
All in all a good day on goldstreet today. A marker of market tone will be the closing action in the last 15 minutes or so. How much of today's action was daytraders and how much of it is related to longs with conviction? If most of today's gains are given back at the close, that won't be a good sign.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 13:48 - ID#426220)
COMEX Feb Futures +$5.00 to 290.40


Major Gold Trading Centers Around the World. Many Gold price links, including closing bullion and gold coin prices. Also shows live GOLD TRADING in London, Singapore, Tokyo & the COMEX:

(Wed Dec 17 1997 13:49 - ID#201131)
CNBC talking head
An expert on CNBC said the yen cant go up versus the dollar because the Japan is in a recession. Hes missing the point. The Yen needs to go up versus the other asian currencies. DUH. The US dollar going down accomplishes the task because they are still wanting to link to the dollar. The dollar tanks and gold rules.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 13:49 - ID#298259)
short position of 8,000 tonnes
For those of you who haven't seen the rationale - The numbers about the gold shorts first started appearing in the Aug. '97 Gold Newsletter by James Blanchard. He was quoting data by Frank Veneroso ( Fax service $8,000 yr ) . Frank is said to be a legendary institutional economist and investment analyst, has advised more than a dozen gov'ts, served as the lead strategist for one of the world's largest hedge funds and was a co-founder of the first emerging market gold fund.

In August this is what Blanchard had to say:

Frank was the first to point out that the already heavily short hedge funds used the excuse of the Australian sale, in combination with a low-volume, pre-holiday trading session, to break the gold price down and make further huge profits. Veneroso stated, "The dealer community is already gleefully citing the Australian sale as yet more evidence that the central banks will sell all their gold and that producers and funds should quickly get more short before the price falls further.

Although my friend Veneroso would never use such explicit and dramatic terms, I believe that the short position in gold is now of such major proportions that the only outcome will be a dramatic reversal in the entire negagive price trend. In fact, we may well see a rally of anywhere from $50-$75. Depending on what follows that, we could either enter a whole new bull market in gold, or the shorts, with their appetite only whetted could continue to battle against gold for 6 to 12 mos.

Veneroso argues persuasively that the total amt of this gold short position is an unprecedented 2,000 tonnes of gold. As a result of my private conversations with Veneroso and other sources, I believe the short position is closer to 3,000 tonnes, although it is hard to imagine exactly how the speculators are establishing such huge positions.

To put the short position into perspective, remember that 2,000 tonnes of gold is roughly equal to the total volume of all producer hedges outstanding. In addition, it approx's the net total of all published official gold sales over the last 10 years.

Short Sellers Dream - In Dec '96, when the shorts broke the gold price below $370, I believe that the funds, which were already negative on gold, became convinced that it was now possible to break gold back into the $275 to $285 level. But even on the conservative side, they obviously believed they could break gold into the $320s. In other words, the shorts reasoned that it would be possible to make betw $40 - $95 per oz in a coordinated short onslaught against gold. Most importantly the shorts decided that the recent trends in the gold market were so powerful that they could continue to depend on gold sales and lending from central banks, on investment dishording, and on producer forward sales. In other words, the shorts thought, and still think they could physically cover almost any gold shorts they established, should the market move against them.

The ultimate encouragement for short sellers: if you assume that the avg short position in gold from Dec '96 until the $314 low was 1,000 tonnes, or 32,151,000 oz, then the profit on this mega position at $56 per oz has equaled almost $2 billion. There is nothing like greed to continue to encourage the shorts. In fact, I am convinced that even if the current rally carries gold up to the $330s, it will be nowhere near enough to discourgae the shorts; it will probably take a huge short squeeze sending gold up $50 or more in a week to do that.

If Frank is right and the short position is 2,000 tonnes of gold, double our profit est for fund short positions. Now consider their motivation if they are 2,000 tonnes short, to continue to drive gold down to $285: From $330 to $285 would mean a $45/oz profit, times 2,000 tonnes ( another mega hit of almost $3 billion ) .

I believe Veneroso's figure of 2,000 tonnes is acutally conservative. It's a simple matter of math. Using Veneroso's number of 2,000 tonnes, and using the widely believed supposition that the OTC gold market is at least 10 times larger than Comex, it may very well be that the following #'s are correct.

As of the Comex Commitment of Traders report of July 15, '97, there were 83,000 net speculator short contracts. Each contract is 100 oz, so the total spec short position on Comex was 8.3 mill oz. If you figure that the total OTC spec short position might be 10 times this amt, and add it to the Comex figure, it gives us a total spec gold short position of a staggering 2,839 tonnes. It is clear now that a large group of international gold short sellers leaped onto this event as a chance to drive the gold price down even further.

The shorts could still win another round, and the ultimate bull market in gold could be delayed for a sig period of time, perhaps another 6 to 12 mos. Who knows? My inclination is that we will either see a catapult move of $50 or more in a wk or less, or the exact opposite will happen and gold will continue to plummet, testing the 1985 low of $284. ( pretty good call I'd say - that's why I'm "Frustrated" )

In Blanchard's Oct 97 newsletter he further states:

We have been doing further research on the size and rate of increase of global gold loan aggregates and have come to some conclusions that astound even us. We believe that the total volume of outstanding gold loans at the present time is probably 2 to 3 times consensus estimates of 3,000 tonnes plus. - ( This is where the 8,000 number is coming from. )

What does it mean if there are 8,000 tonnes of barrowed gold outstanding, not 3,000 tonnes? This means annual flows of gold into the market in recent years have been 500-1,000 tonnes higher than consensus estimates. ( what do you think about that Karlitto ) . In turn, this means demand and the deficit have been understated, and possibly by much more than the 400 tonnes we had been estimating. It follows that the gold price may be further below its long run equilibrium than we thought and that, when these official supplies abate, the gold price will rise more than anyone thinks.

Secondly, the aggregate short position must grow very fast if the gold price is to stay depressed, since it is this very flow of barrowed gold that is depressing the gold price and creating the huge annual supply/ demand deficit in the gold market. Today's 8,000 tonnes of global gold loans will probably have to expand by more than 1,000 tones per yr, and this endgame will be played out sooner, not later.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 13:55 - ID#201131)
tzadek and Larryn
Ditto to your comments.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 14:06 - ID#31868)
Ahh Hem.
Now that the lemmings have seen how quick the dollar can change in value against the yen, how long before they figure out that the financial health of the planet can only come about with the dollar going down.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 14:08 - ID#28585)
Farfetched Farfel is BACK. BE AFRAID...BE VERY AFRAID... all my other gold buddies...first let me assure you that I too am extremely pro-gold. That is why I am being rough on all my gold-bug buddies out there. I stand by my letter to the Toronto Globe and I stand by my predictions that gold is a metal in a great deal of trouble unless dramatic remedial actions are taken by the gold mining industry.

Do not get too euphoric over gold's one day revival...triggered simply by the weakness in the American dollar. The financial bulls will re-gather their forces and target gold for ruin once again.

Remember, gentlemen, the gold industry must also gather its forces and CHANGE THE PERCEPTION!!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 14:10 - ID#194311)
T-Bonds Awaaaaaaaaaaay!
Yankee Dollar toilet paper will burn in the fires of hell,
the gold phoenix will rise from the ashes.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 14:13 - ID#238295)
Open interest
All gold investors should carefully scrutinize today's open interest numbers. If the open interest contracts on this rally, that will signal short covering rather than committed longs. This has been the pattern for a long time now -- brief short covering rallies, then down into the cellar again as EB can attest.

But if the open interest starts to climb together with bullion -- signalling the entrance of new longs -- that would be exceedingly bullish and probably mark the final demise of this 22 month old golden grizzly.

Let me repeat a statement that Stephen Mooney made recently. GOLD IS CHEAP. AND GOLD STOCKS ARE EVEN CHEAPER. Whatever the short-term fluctuations, gold investments at these levels will work out very nicely over the next few years.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 14:16 - ID#333232)
cyber stutter
Farfel, glad to see you fixed that annoying [Enter] thing.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 14:27 - ID#194311)
Thailand to crack down on gold traders
BANGKOK, Dec 16 ( AFP ) - The Thai government has vowed to
crack down on people who are taking advantage of a legal loophole to
ship gold out of the country and sell it for US dollars, reports
said Tuesday.
In a sign of the times for Thailand's shaken economy, television
reports said Thais had been taking gold overseas to sell it for US
dollars which they would then use to cash in on the Thai baht's
weakness against the greenback.
Deputy Finance Minister Pichet Phanvichartkul was quoted as
saying the government would more closely monitor the movement of
gold across its borders.
He said there were currently no limits to how much gold could be
taken out of the country.
Gold was said to be leaving the country every two days in
shipments of 30-40kg ( 66-88 pounds ) .
Pichet said the government would question gold traders about the
source of the gold and consider ways to tax the exporters.
The report said one tonne of gold was recently flown out of
Bangkok's Don Muang international airport.
The baht has lost more than 40 percent of its value against the
US dollar since it was floated on July 2.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 14:27 - ID#227238)
Frustrated: Occasionally words are inadequate to express gratitude. Your thoughts on the total short position present just one of those moments. Many thanks for taking the time to compose that post.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 14:30 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Lazy
XAU up 4.90.....Hate ta be a party pooper but the Cape Breton central bank is poised to sell all its gold holdings~~~~~~~~~EB: Even without 'Snottie' da Bulls will prevail....

(Wed Dec 17 1997 14:32 - ID#372262)

The gold loan game can go on forever as long as the CB's can roll over their gold loans as brazenly and successfuly as they have their paper loans! JUST ROLL IT OVER, STUPID!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 14:38 - ID#298259)
Earl - your welcome
Only hope that endgame comes soon so I can buy my cat a x-mas gift.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 14:43 - ID#298259)
Earl - your welcome
XAU up 5.62 8.2% Only hope that endgame comes soon so I can buy my cat a x-mas gift. I only hope it doesn't have to be a '98 x-mas gift.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 14:44 - ID#227238)
Ted: If the Central Bank of Cape Breton has both keys to your safe deposit box, the gold market will be doomed.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 14:54 - ID#298259)
Earl - your welcome
XAU up 5.62 ( 8.2% ) . Only hope that endgame comes soon so I can buy my cat a x-mas gift. I only hope it doesn't have to be a '98 x-mas gift.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 15:16 - ID#228100)
Mr. Frustrated - Thanks.
Enjoyed your post as much as Earl. Thanks.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 15:18 - ID#228100)
Mr. Frustrated - Thanks.
Enjoyed your post as much as Earl. Thanks.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 15:19 - ID#228100)
Mr. Frustrated - Thanks.
Enjoyed your post as much as Earl. Thanks.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 15:47 - ID#372344)
Reports from S.Korea, todate ONE Business man Commits SUICIDE per week.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 15:55 - ID#413224)
Ticker Symbol for RSA
to all,could someone please tell me the ticker symbol and exchange
for rsa ( the platinum people ) .Thanks

(Wed Dec 17 1997 16:18 - ID#93232)
The storm has lifted and placed us on higher ground. All that have survived, albeit tattered, have a new and profound confidence in the power of mutual human endeavor and it's inherent ability to conquer all.

I hope that you will remember me as one who fought beside you to hold our precious ground....faced directly to the ill wind. Fight on Goldbugs!

My most heartfelt wishes to all for a Merry Christmas and a Wonderful New Year. I have and hold the gold I sought to provide a better life
for my children's children. As important; however, I hold and cherish this time I had with you.

Ronald David James

(Wed Dec 17 1997 16:27 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.51

(Wed Dec 17 1997 16:31 - ID#246224)
Ya got yer up tick at day end, buddy. Nicely above 2-8-9. :- )

(Wed Dec 17 1997 16:53 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .258

(Wed Dec 17 1997 16:57 - ID#201238)
Where's the beef? er a GOLD???

Comex warehouse gold stocks PLUNGED 75,775 oz to 562,105 oz today.

Eligible gold stocks actually rose 8,417 oz to 173,342 indicating that someone, probably an Aussie producer upon the sound advice of the Aussie CB and the Argentina CB has to take advantage of these high prices and hedge some more production!!

Comex warehouse silver stocks FELL 489,221 oz to 118,737,115 oz today.

And so, the 200,000 oz. or so of gold that magically appeared just before Dec FND is now gone back in the shadows. Will it reappear just before Feb FND? We will watch with interest. ( I bet it won't come back if the price is rising because you can't lease it for a month and make money like I think they have been doing the last year or so. )

(Wed Dec 17 1997 18:02 - ID#368254)
What a difference a day makes
Well, I beleive that someone sat up and took notice today! All gold related sites on my computer are jammed. Chat areas not related to gold have a very negative tone toward the markets in general. Do not believe investor confidenc is high [low as a frogs rear end]! I believe that if
we get follow through tomorrow, the amount of gold bugs in the world might increase significantly. Will not take much to throw stock market
in to tailspin.
Japanese metal houses are very busy.

Good ol' boy
(Wed Dec 17 1997 18:03 - ID#26345)
Buy low, sell high and keep the powder dry
God willing and the creeks don't run
Gold will again have its day in the sun
Goldbugs will smile again one day
And I sure hope its not far away

(Wed Dec 17 1997 18:03 - ID#254269)
@ arden

Re your 16.57, what does FND stand for ? TIA

(Wed Dec 17 1997 18:07 - ID#393224)
More "plunges" we need
G'day all. Heard on the news this morning "Gold plunged $5.50..." Her perception that "gold" and "plunge" go together is so ingrained that even the facts couldn't change it. I'm looking forward to many more "plunges" over the next few years.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 18:22 - ID#410194)
March Silver is a bit intimidated by the "600" level and finds it challenging to post a close above.

Today's action also made it hard for it to gain as substantially as Gold because of the heavy unwinding of Gold/Silver spreads that were quite popular during last weeks steep decline of Gold.

It will need to close above "605" in London in order to get the next leg up going.

Bill Buckler
(Wed Dec 17 1997 18:23 - ID#257234)
$A-$US Gold comparison charts
Yesterday, The $A Gold price signalled an upturn on the $A 1x3 P&F chart as I posted to Kitco. Today, the $US 1x3 P&F chart formed a double bottom and re-entered its down channel.

The $A/$US Gold comparison page at The Privateer will be updated in the next hour. In the meantime, you can check out the state of play on the $A and $US Gold charts BEFORE the $US Gold upturn.

The URL is

A caveat is in order here. The $A chart has signalled turnarounds twice this year. The first came in late June, the second in late September. The first was aborted by the Australian Reserve Bank Gold sale announcement, the second by the announcement by the Swiss Reserve Bank that they were "thinking" of selling 1400 Tonnes of Gold.

The first thing to watch for is how high this present move goes. The vital sign, however, is what happens when the first move runs out of steam and turns down. If the recent lows hold, then the NEXT upturn on the $A and $US Gold price will be the vital one.

Lurker 777
(Wed Dec 17 1997 19:01 - ID#317247)

Good ol' boy
(Wed Dec 17 1997 19:02 - ID#26345)
Are American's stupid.
When you go into a jewlery store and see a nice gold necklace, bright and shiny, after you find out the price, ask how many Karots gold it is and then figure out the price of gold. If you are looking to gold as a store of value as well as an article of adornment, chances are gold will have to appreciate by about 100% or more before you can get your money out of it. You should consider buying the gold plated chains they sell by the yard. It is difficult to believe that the cost of fabrication is much if they can spin it out by the mile.

When I was in the orient, I purchased some gold necklaces. Rather than being 12 or 14 karats, it was 22 to 24 karats. The jeweler weighed it up, calculated the value of the gold based on the current price, added a small sum for fabrication and I had my necklaces which were not only beautiful, having a luster that the shiny stuff in the U.S. does not have, but also becoming a store of value.

I suggest that it might be a good busines to manufacture and sell such gold in the U.S., Canada and elsewhere where the public is being sold a bill of goods.

Lurker 777
(Wed Dec 17 1997 19:02 - ID#317247)
test 19:06

(Wed Dec 17 1997 19:04 - ID#339274)
target reached
FWIW , XAU 74.5 reached,AZS and VAALY strong breakout.
Happy trading: )

(Wed Dec 17 1997 19:14 - ID#348286)
@``I don't think this rally will sustain,there's too much negativity in the gold sector,'' Zerb said
AMAZING isn't it, you finally have a spectacular day on the Gold market,
and the media ( REUTERS ) goes out to find a bearish analyst to throw cold water on the fire, and DOESN'T balance the story by quoting a Gold bull. WHO is this ZERB idiot anyway ?

Wednesday December 17, 6:10 pm Eastern Time

Gold sector rises seven pct on short-covering

TORONTO, Dec 17 ( Reuters ) - Canadian gold shares led Toronto stocks higher on Wednesday with analysts attributing the jump to short-sellers closing out their positions.

``We are seeing a short recovery rally,'' said Wendell Zerb, an analyst at Pacific International Securities in Vancouver. ``I think this was long overdue.''

Canada's gold and precious minerals shares rose 6.7 percent, helping the Toronto Stock Exchange 300 Composite Index rise 45.87 points to 6613.10 in mid-day trading.

``Some short-selling has been coming through this morning,'' said Catherine Cignac, an analyst at Deacon Capital Corp.

With the price of gold recently hitting 12-year lows, analysts said bullion investors took the opportunity to cover their short positions and take profits. February gold on COMEX rose US$5 to US$290.40 earlier today.

``I've been expecting this bump for several weeks,'' Zerb said, noting that there are more than 60,000 short selling positions outstanding.

This activity pushed up the price of gold and along with it gold mining stocks, with investors sticking to the senior companies.

Euro-Nevada Mining Corp Ltd ( Toronto:EN.TO - news ) led the sub-index higher, rising 1.65 to 17.50. Barrick Gold Corp ( NYSE:ABX - news; Toronto:ABX.TO - news ) rose 1.55 to 25.95 and Placer Dome Inc ( NYSE:PDG - news; Toronto:PDG.TO - news ) , gained 1.25 to 17.25.

With a rise of almost seven percent in the Toronto Stock Exchange's heavy-weighted gold sector on Wednesday, analysts said the boom could be short-lived.

``I don't think this rally will sustain, there's too much negativity in the gold sector,'' Zerb said.

With more countries openly contemplating selling off their gold reserves and the ongoing Asian financial crisis, Zerb said he does not expect gold prices to rally much further.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 19:47 - ID#348286)
@KITCO - Dog Slow
True to form, any time there is action in Gold, KITCO access bogs down!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 20:03 - ID#31868)
Could not resist this little jem!!!
Wednesday December 17, 7:15 pm Eastern Time
Tokyo Hot stocks: S'tomo Metal Mining

TOKYO, Dec 18 ( Reuters ) - The following are stocks on the move:

0010 GMT - Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ( 5713.T ) shares bid-only at 430 after the firm said that it had confirmed the presence of a gold deposit in Alaska.

The shares were suspended for the entire session on Wednesday pending news of the gold find. It closed at 420 on Tuesday.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 20:13 - ID#20136)
look at the times between posts.
Definitely kitco is suffering again today. Very positve indicator.

Well, we made it through yesterday quite nicely. Now we need to put a couple of more days together to close out the week strong. Of course, the media will interpret in a negative light.

The dollar is the key. Has it has always been. Japan is starting to put on the pressure.

SDRer where are you -- doing the Christmas projects. Hope to hear from you very soon. Maybe a comment or two on the currency situation.

Lurker 777
(Wed Dec 17 1997 20:16 - ID#317247)
Kitco withdraws!
I must admit this is disturbing watching one or two posts an hour. I have been lurking for awhile now and if this continues I will have no choice but to seek professional help and a support group.

Mr. Smith
(Wed Dec 17 1997 20:21 - ID#347333)
The massive short position---now its getting bigger?
Just read SJK's page and see that Bolivia's CB will be loaning 89 tonnes out. In light of the MASSIVE short position, a position that seems to be getting bigger and bigger, how in the world do these BEARISH speculators hope to cover their gambles??? This MASSIVE short position appears to be spread across the world, not just in the U.S. or London market. It defies logic.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 20:30 - ID#20136)
Looks the same as last night at this time.
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 8:21PM 16359.74 -181.32 -1.10%

Come on Japan, just print more Yen and sell more dollars. Hey, how about kicking in some of those U.S. treasury bonds. They seem to be in short supply, you ought to get a good price for them.

And for the finale, BUY GOLD. The US Government hates gold, that would put thme in their place.



P.S. keep up the good work on that trade surplus.

Wednesday December 17, 7:48 pm Eastern Time

TABLE-Japan Nov trade surplus up 58.7 pct--MOF

TOKYO, Dec 18 ( Reuters ) - Japan's customs-cleared trade surplus for November rose 58.7 percent from a year earlier to 1.064 trillion yen,
the Ministry of Finance said on Thursday.

The trade surplus with the United States climbed 28.2 percent in November from a year earlier to 483.9 billion yen, it said. The figures were not
adjusted for seasonal factors.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 20:51 - ID#28585)
Now is the time to add fuel to the fire!!!!
My beloved golden is every encouraging to see the jump in gold today. However, a movement that is totally related to a ( temporary? ) currency factor is not sufficient to whip the overall bearish sentiment re: AU.

Now is the time for gents like Mr. Munk to step forward and assist the gold bull. If at least three major gold mining companies would come forward and announce the indefinite suspension of forward sales along with the suspension of future mining exploration, then you would see a double digit short squeeze on the market like never before witnessed. CHANGE THE PERCEPTION!

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Dec 17 1997 20:54 - ID#231101)

As an amateur gold investor, it is greatly satisfying to surf the many perceptive observations made hourly on Kitco. And since the strong xau and bullion close of the day, I am anxious to hear from those of you with far greater knowledge of the gold market than I can claim. But, though my post represents a departure from the immediate business of deciphering todays fortuitous spike, I want to say I have not enjoyed the ego wars fueled by those who wish to exalt themselves. Thus I have found it rather amusing that LGB allows himself such high moral ground when he spies a weak syllogism or non-sequitur glaringly corrupting the logic of posters he wishes to attack. However, when he misspells Nietzsche and launches into a disquisition on positivistic philosophy and existentialism, I should remind him that over a month ago he complained that kitcoites did not need an "academic," nor my longwinded post ( my first, incidentally ) . Now, I have no desire to infect this site with the sort of "ad hominum" debate so dear to LGB, but over the weekend, as he waxed fulsomely about astrology, false prophets, and anti-christs, I believe he stepped a bit into my expertise. I would rest my case with a simple exhortation that we not blame "experts" for encouraging visitors to this site to expect financial Armageddon as LGB has written of Puetz and George Cole. If these gentlemen have offered advice that might influence a Kitco investor, it seems equally perverse to spout bargain basement philosophy ( Voltaire calls it "metaphysico-theologico-cosminogology"--a wonderful reproach to the long-winded Pangloss ) , pretending where evidence will not support the claim to knowledge. My belated salvo for LGB's reproach to me has its origins in my hope that everyone will stick to his expertise and his manners in the future. I am interested in learning about gold and its future, not intellectual overreaching. I read Sophocles to learn about hubris.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 21:20 - ID#285233)
Due to depressed gold prices and therefore lack of interest in this site, no posts are found here tonight. Please, use your personal psychiatrist instead.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 21:22 - ID#280222)
OLD GOLD: good logic...are you GSC? CYCLIST: nice does 320 look? EB:... look out! ... APH:.. incoming... ALL: Is anyone in OJ? JOHN DISNEY: If you had 10g loose & wanted to invest in a gold mine, where would you put it?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 21:30 - ID#398105)
Farfetched farfel..................

G'day from Kalgoorlie,

In exploration and mining there are two schools - one that wishes to speculate, the other wishes to produce gold. If you form part of the first school, you stop exploration and go out of business; if the second, you should be active with exploration and acquistions, and stay in business.

Exploration involves - Regional Assessment; Anomaly Definition; Anomaly Verification; and, Resource Delimitation.

Development involves - Deposit Definition; Project Engineering; Project Economics; Bankable Feasibility.

Production involves - Mine Development; and, Mine Exploitation.

Your idea of stopping forward sales for Mining Companies ( as opposed to Speculators ) , and stopping "mine exploration" are, FOR SERIOUS ONGOING MINING COMPANIES .... NOT VIABLE ( We CAN supply the Metal ) . The current market problem is focused upon Central Banks and the Gold Derivatives market Speculators ( Who can only get gold from the

(Wed Dec 17 1997 21:32 - ID#398105)
Farfetched farfel..................
G'day from Kalgoorlie. In exploration and mining there are two schools - one that wishes to speculate, the other wishes to produce gold. If you form part of the first school, you stop exploration and go out of business; if the second, you should be active with exploration and acquistions, and stay in business. Exploration involves - Regional Assessment; Anomaly Definition; Anomaly Verification; and, Resource Delimitation. Development involves - Deposit Definition; Project Engineering; Project Economics; Bankable Feasibility.
Production involves - Mine Development; and, Mine Exploitation.
Your idea of stopping forward sales for Mining Companies ( as opposed to Speculators ) , and stopping "mine exploration" are, FOR SERIOUS ONGOING MINING COMPANIES .... NOT VIABLE ( We CAN supply the Metal ) . The current market problem is focused upon Central Banks and the Gold Derivatives market Speculators ( Who can only get gold from the Banks, they do not have the Geological Resources or Mineable Reserves ) . Let me know how your Exploration of Mars goes.............

Aye Haggis

(Wed Dec 17 1997 21:34 - ID#26669)
churning the market...not a good sign Look down at the AMEX list of most active stocks and see which ones are churning like crazy WITH NO PRICE CHANGE...really bad Karma, IMHO

(Wed Dec 17 1997 21:43 - ID#223146)
Whats Wrong With This Site
Bart It seems Slow and what have you done with all the posts. The time space between posts is strange.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 21:43 - ID#364147)
@ EB
What's with 'slowtime' t'night???....go gold!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 21:45 - ID#411225)
AMEX might "delist" Dakota Gold (DKT)
Today Dakota Gold announced they unwound 80,000 oz of forward selling positions and used it to make a debt payment to their creditor Rothchilds......

The AMEX has advised them they may be "delisted"....

"Separately, Dakota has been advised by the American Stock Exchange ( ``Amex'' ) that it does not fully satisfy all of the financial requirements for continued listing. While Dakota management believes that the reduction in Rothschild debt will favorably impact Amex's ongoing evaluation of the Company's continued listing eligibility, there can be no assurance that the listing will be continued."

Can someone please explain to me what the AMEX is claiming DKT did wrong to deserve such an advisement ( or threat ) ?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 21:48 - ID#364147)
Hey Earl: re-14:44 ( I wish........ ) I think my e-mail has gone screwy could ya send me a quick one if yer around....

Bill Buckler
(Wed Dec 17 1997 21:57 - ID#257234)
$A-$US Gold comparison update
I tried to post this an hour ago but couldn't. Kitco is slow right now. The $A and $US comparison charts updated to the $US Gold price rise are now up, as I promised in my earlier post. It took a bit more than an hour, but here they are anyway

I have kept yesterdays chart and added a link so you can check out the fact that $A Gold went first. Also, I have updated the longer term P&F charts of both $A and $US Gold. It's definitely too early to call a "bottom" on the $US Gold chart. The $A Gold chart, though, looks much more promising. Check out the very wide "double bottom" going back to last July.

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Dec 17 1997 21:58 - ID#295111)
CBC Newsworld & Moneline
ALL: KITCO is real slow past 2 days. Must be a good sign.

Just saw a TV show called CBC Newsworld. A BRAVE analyst came on and said GOLD has been oversold and short covering has been taking place. I KNOW, WE ALL KNOW THAT HERE. But he says to stick with large cap Gold stocks till Gold hits $320-340.

CNN's Moneyline had nothing to say about gold today and I sensed a lot of grim faces on the show especially Lou Dobbs. I loved it!!!! Serves them right for putting on an analyst yesterday who said inflation will be next to nil for a long time and gold will go down to $260.

Templeton says cost of living will be forty times in 40 years. Now that's inflation!! If you believe him and live that long, mmmmmm I wonder what your gold would be worth??

(Wed Dec 17 1997 22:41 - ID#344308)

what is wrong with this site? accessing is almost impossibe,
posting is!

these problems seem to occur with regularity and at the most
in-opportune times!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 22:42 - ID#227238)
Ted: My email is I'm at my wife's machine with recently loaded software and address book has not been transferred.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 23:01 - ID#26669)
Did this go through? Dr Phillips AI going long on two PM funds tonight

(Wed Dec 17 1997 23:01 - ID#227238)
Frustrated: Apropos your earlier post: A 50 buck move in a week would be very nice but equally important IMO is volume of a swamping magnitude. A major reason it has been so easy to move PMs to the tune of manipulators is because of the thinness of the market.

Given a large influx of individual players the manipulators will have little choice but to fold their tent and move on to the next play. If this bounce is to have any legs at all - IT MUST HAVE volume. Volume as a function of investment demand with a concommitant demand at retail ( jewelry ) as well.

Failing that, we will, very shortly, resume the downtrend.

( Bart's ISP host confirms that they will uprgrade their TRS-80 soon - our forbearance is requested ) . ( grin thing )

(Wed Dec 17 1997 23:19 - ID#256201)
tortoise and hare posting;
Cherokee: I also miss the valid posts usually seen here.

Haven't heard from little garrulous boy tonite. Almost worth having the site mired in molasses. No specious nonsense, just common sense so far. GO GOLD!!

(Wed Dec 17 1997 23:22 - ID#390249)
Fundamental Dis-equilibrium in gold
I tried to post this earlier - the daily precious metals update I receive included the following today:

"Fund Shortcovering, producer hedge buybacks, and seasonal central bank book-squaring all contributed to the bounce in precious metals.

'In a market in such fundamental dis-equilibrium as gold, the absence of the only real source of supply - the central banks - eventually leads to recovering prices' Chase Manhattan Global Commodities Managing Diector Dinsa Mehta said."

I find it very interesting that the fundamental dis-equilibrium in gold is being admitted to and reported in the media.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 23:26 - ID#227238)
Reported OI for gold: 185k down 643 lots. Reported volume: 35,000 lots - moderate volume. Not encouraging for a sustained rally.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 23:29 - ID#364147)
Thanks Earl but my e-mail just snapped out of it as Panda got through....
...Typical my e-mail went down TONIGHT as this was the night I was supposed to hear about an offer on this property ( no grin thing ) ----but what the hell else is new??...Life goes on ( kind of ) ---will keep ya up to date about breaking developments.....Bart: Is your ISP located in Cape Breton??

(Wed Dec 17 1997 23:38 - ID#189273)
Asian Markets
Anyone out there got your finger on the markets tonight? The response problems at Kitco have eased, for now. QUICK! While it's running - what's new over there?

(Wed Dec 17 1997 23:40 - ID#20136)
As expected ...
Wednesday December 17, 11:05 pm Eastern Time

Japan LDP says finalises third economic package

TOKYO, Dec 18 ( Reuters ) - Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) finalised its third economic stimulus plan on Thursday, featuring a
one-time special income tax cut worth two trillion yen and the use of public funds for financial stability, an LDP official said.

The package also included tax reform measures for the next fiscal year, aid for small and medium-sized businesses, and steps to cope with
unemployment, LDP officials said.

The LDP plan proposes a contribution of 10 trillion yen worth of government bonds to the Deposit Insurance Corp of Japan ( DIC ) to be used to
protect depositors and help boost financial institutions' capital base, they said.

The bills needed to carry out the financial stabilisation steps are expected to be submitted to the next parliament session in January for approval,
the officials said.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 23:42 - ID#339274)
year 69?
FWIW price range between 270 and 308 for four months .XAU range 55 to 90.

(Wed Dec 17 1997 23:59 - ID#364147)
@ Cherokee
Re-22:41= SOCIALISM is the problem!