Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:02 - ID#255284)
Some years ago I saw a magnificent documentary series on the American Civil War. I was astounded to see film footage of a reunion for the Civil War vets ( complete with a Rebel Yell! ) sometime in the 20s? On one side of the long banquet table sat the Blues, and on the other the Greys, they toasted each other across it while singing the songs they remembered. I forget when the last Civil War Vet died, but, yesterday, the last surviving New Zealander from the bloody beaches of Gallipoli passed away. Forgive me if you think this is a waste of band-width, this post is for those who think otherwise. Requiem ternam dona eis.

( NZ Herald December 19, 1997 )

Doug Dibley had one of the worst jobs at Gallipoli: picking up his broken and bloodied comrades in a battle that claimed many young lives. But the 101-year-old former stretcher-bearer met his Maker yesterday in a far more serene surroundings - at a Rotorua rest-home, with two sons at his bedside.

He was New Zealands last living link to the Gallipoli campaign, which claimed the lives of more than 11,000 Anzac soldiers.
Australias last original Gallipoli campaigner, Ted Matthews, died in Sydney last week, also aged 101.



It was our coming of age, and it was our loss of innocence. It was the moment when the worlds newest dominion, not yet a decade old, staked its claim to nationhood; and it lasted nine long and bloody months.
The name of an arid and steep peninsular in Turkey is burned into our national consciousness. And the death of Doug Dibley, the last New Zealand veteran of the long, slow bloodbath we know as Gallipoli, breaks the last living link with a defining moment in our island story.

For the 19-year old who volunteered to help at Trentham military hospital and soon found himself hoisting wounded bodies into stretchers at the front line, Gallipoli was a rude awakening to the horrors of war. And 80-odd years later, Doug Dibley hadnt forgotten.

No one wins in the end, he said last year. The Great War took the best of our young men, and look how many came back maimed and broken.

In successive waves over nine months, beginning on April 25, 1915, 8556 New Zealanders landed on the small beachhead that would become known as Anzac Cove. When they were evacuated in December with a military efficiency that, ironically, was utterly absent from the campaign, they left behind the bodies of 2721, or almost one in three.
Barely 265 of those men lie in marked graves. The rest lay where they fell, their bones bleached by the fierce Turkish sun. They went out of the trenches and simply disappeared.

Gallipoli was by no means the bloodiest action New Zealanders saw in the First World War: in 21 days 7900 of our men died at the Somme, and in four hours at Passchendaele 2400 fell.

But at that time we were numb as a nation to the idea that our best and brightest were dying on the other side of the world. Gallipoli delivered the first, stunning news to a country which had believed in war as a brief adventure, in which victory was sure.

The naivety of believing that the Empire was always right and we could never be defeated came a gutser at Gallipoli because we lost it, says Dr Christopher Pugsley, a military historian who has written a book on the campaign. Gallipoli was a key event in our coming of age as a nation. Such a transformation doesnt happen in a moment, of course, but in a process unfurled by time.
The first New Zealand Expeditionary Force that left in October 1914 was a carefree band of lads bursting with provincial pride. But, whether playing football in Egypt or fighting for their lives in Turkey, they instinctively buried parochial rivalries.
They became compatriots determined to the better than the men they fought alongside. For the first time they knew  and they would pay with the lives of a generation for the knowledge  what it was to be a New Zealander.


They shall not grow old,
As we that are left grow old:
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
At the going down of the sun
and in the morning
We will remember them.

Laurence Binyon
For the Fallen

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:03 - ID#287367)
The Japanese are selling US dollars and Treasuries hand over fist. How in hell does running the printing presses keep T-Bond prices **UP**? I'd think the oversupply of trash paper would knock $ and TBond prices into the black hole, never to be seen again! What gives?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:04 - ID#304282)
Fidility shows Japan down 926 but that is with a 20 minute delay. Yahoo is still down. Can anyone do better than that?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:05 - ID#189273)
A. Goose
Thank you for passing on the news. It is much appreciated.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:05 - ID#304282)
Fidility shows Japan down 926 but that is with a 20 minute delay. Yahoo is still down. Can anyone do better than that?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:09 - ID#288157)
Aetna's CFO & Dresdner's Chief Investment does wonder....
Dresdner Bank: Investment chief quits
By Andrew Fisher in Frankfurt

Dresdner Bank, Germany's second-biggest bank, suffered a further blow
yesterday with the resignation of Hansgeorg Hofmann as head of its
investment banking operation after he admitted tax evasion.

The bank has been hit recently by a series of enforced resignations that have damaged its image and harmed employee morale.

Mr Hofmann's departure leaves a void for the second time this year at the top of Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, which the bank has been trying to build up into a global investment banking business.

The London-based investment bank was hit earlier this year by the resignation of Simon Robertson as executive chairman over management tensions between London and Frankfurt, and by the departure of David Clementi, who was vice-chairman, to become a deputy governor of the Bank of England.

Mr Hofmann, 54, was seen as one of the few Dresdner executives capable of
healing the rift between Frankfurt and the London investment bankers. But his position became untenable early this week when Klaus Carlin, an employee representative on Dresdner's non-executive supervisory board, called publicly for his resignation. Mr Carlin said that for Mr Hofmann to continue heading Dresdner Kleinwort Benson would be "extremely questionable morally".

Kleinwort bankers said they felt insulted the bank had claimed it had
transferred him to London to concentrate on Kleinwort business. After details of his tax affairs appeared in Der Spiegel, the German magazine, Dresdner admitted the reason for the move was his tax situation.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:11 - ID#373403)
Nikkei 15208
So how many Japanese financial institutions still have reserves? Oh wait, the tax break will make up for the fact that depositors money is GONE!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:12 - ID#373403)
Nikkei data

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:13 - ID#401460)
Crystal Ball
I don't understand either - but the Fed was in buying up Bonds a couple of times today - I think? CNBC mentioned that the Fed had been in the market earlier and were probably going to repurchase again later in the day.

The US has a pre-arranged agreement with the Japanese to cover all of the US$ and US bonds they are holding.

Isn't this monetizing the debt?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:14 - ID#189273)
To Highrise
Yeah, monitizing the debt is one way to put it.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:15 - ID#304282)
This data is over an hour old. Japan could be down huge and us not even know about it. Yahoo Sucks!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:19 - ID#374211)
@ newtron , reverse psychology?
Albeit, your gut instinct may say BLOW OFF but I feel the PPT ( Plunge
Protection Team ) is wide awake at their computers, ever calculating
on just how to manage a reasonable decline, after all AG has wanted
an orderly decline for some time, much less paper to print. I feel that
the GAME is at playing CHICKEN, with the US and Japan daring
each other the US attempting to keep US$ KING and Japan saying
enough and fighting to keep stregnth in the YEN. This Chicken Game
will NOT last long, the stakes are way way too high. IMHO the US
will "give' " and prolong ( print, this is only the begining of the US$ blackmail, that will eventually send GOLD soaring! ) the paper Game for a little bit more. I believe the World Markets have genuinely begun to
look at Gold and Senior Gold Stocks and most tax selling in said stocks is over. But as they say" don't touch that dial" Stay Tuned!!!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:20 - ID#335184)
JTF : 23:29 post is terrific!!! ITYS @ 16:08 RE JAP CANUNDRUM IN MY HOLY OPINION.
What's true for Indonesia/Korea is writ large for JAPAN, INC.
Thanks for the flash!!!

Lurker 777
(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:21 - ID#317247)
Nikkei 225 futures down by daily limit--OSE
TOKYO, Dec 19 ( Reuters ) - The benchmark March Nikkei 225 futures contract fell briefly by its daily limit of 1,000 points to 15,090 in early afternoon trade on Friday, the Osaka Securities Exchange said.
As of 0418 GMT, the March futures contracts stood at 15,110, down 980 from its Thursday close.

Traders attributed the drop to aftershocks from Thursday's unexpected insolvency filing by foodstuffs trading house Toshoku Ltd, which became Japan's fourth-biggest post-war financial failure.

Toshoku's collapse sparked worries that more Japanese companies in fragile financial health would be forced to follow the same path, fuelling active sales especially from foreign investors, market sources said.

The key Nikkei average of 225 blue chip shares was down 926.38 points or 5.73 percent at 15,235.26 as of 0500 GMT.

Related News Categories: US Market News, international

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:21 - ID#287367)
Guys, try
Shows Nikky down about 901.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:21 - ID#20137)
Date: Fri Dec 19 1997 00:09
SDRer__A ( Aetna's CFO & Dresdner's Chief Investment does wonder.... )
Glad to see you back. Hope you are out from under all your Christmas work.

Dresdner Bank: If this trend keeps up, the bankers will be grouped below used car salesmen.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:24 - ID#288157)
A. Goose, News of your dear Ing, and more Bonds for the world (what the world needs now...)
ING Bank pulls out of Thai bank deal
Thailand's attempts to attract foreign capital to shore up its banking sector have suffered a blow with the news that ING Bank of the Netherlands has decided against taking a 10 per cent stake in Siam City Bank. Full story,

International bonds: Korea offering seen imminent
Speculation that a Korean bond of between $9bn and $10bn was imminent continued to circulate yesterday, although the situation appeared extremely fluid. "The investment bank that wins the Korea mandate is in pole position to lead-manage all the subsequent Asian sovereign bonds," said an official at a US bank. Full story,

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:26 - ID#28585)
I'll be the second one tonight to ask the question: have the Hunt Brothers returned and if so, can we get their advice on what do about gold?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:28 - ID#189273)
to SDRer
Most interesting post. I lived a few years in Germany, during the time the wall came down. From busdriver to top executive, they were all crossing the border to Switzerland and buying gold coins, or leaving small deposits in Swiss banks, hoping to avoid detection by their powers-that-be. Tax evasion is the #2 German pasttime, after beer drinking, of course. Often the two comingle. One of my favorite conversations with a German was with a busdriver who stopped in Switzerland during each trip on his regular route between Germany and Italy, to buy a small coin each week. Others wait until their their 6 week summer "Urlaub" ( vacation ) . They know all about paper money and real wealth and security. Let's drink a toast to them tonight.

Bill Buckler
(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:28 - ID#257234)
Nikkei at 00:18 EST
Here's the latest from Blomberg on the Nikkei
Down 895 points at 00:18 AM EST

The URL is

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:33 - ID#401460)
If this little game of theirs fails, we will be talking of HYPER INFLATION. I have read of these situations in economic cycles and I guess there really is little they can do but to follow the trend and pattern just as it happened in the past.

You would think that man would be able to improve on the past - I guess we are doomed to repeat history.

"The Great Reckoning" is still on track.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:34 - ID#25588)
Gold and S&P
Feb Gold failed to close above it's upper channel line today, tomorrow a close above 291 will trigger an acceleration upward. Add to positions on a close above 291. Will try buying Mar S&P under 955 if d/a is less than 1.5/1 durring the first hour, stop under tonights low.

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:37 - ID#287367)
N - E - S - T - L - E - S. Nestles makes the very best... Chocolate. I'm "wasted." High Rise, Tol, and the rest of you insomniac lunatics, gotta go- Morpheus becons. Gotta start this BS all over agin when Ol Sol lights up this side of the Great Green Earth. Missin' Cranberra Nick and Sharkfin Soupnick. BBML...If I can wake up!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:41 - ID#374211)
@ HighRise It aint necessarily so!
Flip thru some of my previous posts and you'll see that my belief is
that the US will have a dual currency system an internal US$ in part
backed by Gold and and external US$ and Debt ( Foreigners will be
left holding the BAG! ) But I don't believe we are even close to there yet!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:42 - ID#301318)
new here, need know how to take advantage of a gold bull now

Have had 1 eye peeled on gold for almost a year now. Was just waiting and watching. The trip wire, IMVHO, is Jap sales of US$ T-bills.
Been lurking here for about 3 weeks and have read much of the gold-bug sites. I am convinced! The public is ignorant! I have small chunk of change ( $7K ) sitting around and want to use it. I am hesitant to buy physical and want to know what vehicle is better, more profitable, in a gold bull run? Be gentle, I am small time. Please be specific. Mining stocks? Futures? Certificats? See a broker? : ) Thanks

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:44 - ID#393224)
Nikkei net
Nikkei Net for Japanese news.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:47 - ID#374211)
@ Flash, Buy 10 (x1/4) Oz Gold coins, put rest in Barrick,Placer Dome, and Kinross.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 00:51 - ID#393224)
G'day Flash. Send the 7k to me, mate . There's a good horse in the 5th. Will give you 1/2 the proceeds.

Now for a REAL investment, ask your broker to buy you some South African or Aussie gold shares--hugely undervalued. Or, assuming you're a Yank and wanna stay close to hope--read back a few weeks for tons of advice and pick the one that tickles your fancy. Soon, ALL gold investment are goin' up. Cheers from downunder. Nick

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:01 - ID#401460)
I agree and I think they will have SIX or more valuations if they need them. As I have mentioned in my previous posts, it is all in the perception of the public. Information does not have to be factual and truthful, it is only important that desired end is accomplished.

Just like the Internet slowing down to a complete stop, when ever there is market action and accurate information is desired by the public. I know this could be peak time for the internet, but I only have a problem accessing sites with economic information. We couldn't get on Kitco the other night and there was not that many posts - they were 10 mins apart.

We will go to bed tonight and tomorrow the media will tell us what "eally" happened.

It is easy to become paranoid in this environment of manipulation of the truth.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:09 - ID#189273)
Re: Hyperinflation. Well, I do believe that these cycles have something to do with length of our lifespans and short memories. Too few of us seriously study and try to learn from history. In Germany today, at least, the memory of hyperinflation is still vivid enough, from stories at grandpa's knee about the horrors of the late 20's, that "tax evasion", that is, taking money out of the country,is still very much mainstream. Our Christmas and other presents there were usually in beautifully minted coins.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:13 - ID#270224)
Real Assets, Nikkei is down 931
I'd love to hear what Lou on Wall Street Week will have to say and how many of the "elves" on Wall Street are still bullish.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:14 - ID#374211)
@ HighRise
Mass Deception in order to obtain desired Mass Perception is really
nothing new, every civilized society has practised it in one form or
another. It is necessarily how to Keep the "PAPER GAME" going
and when you think about it, look at all the free stuff we got for our
paper $. The problem is everything in this world must come to an end sooner or later. We as informed citizens must study man's past so
that we may be better positioned to make to correct decisions to at
least keep our personal standard of living thru and after all this.
Deja Vu all over again!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:15 - ID#189273)
SO long, see you tomorrow. Nice to finally find some other idiots who spend long hours contemplating global economics. Really, I sometime went for MONTHS before finding people on this wavelength. Tonight I appreciate you'all. Tomorrow, I'll be scrapping for an argument again.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:16 - ID#335184)
TZADEAK THE END IS NEAR, at least the beginning of the end is over !!!
We have seen all the signs & wonders of signs that we as mortals have been given to see & the 7th seal is broken.
I did not mean to imply that tomorrow is dooms day, but merely that the end game has arrived. The AG led FED has all the best intentions, smarts & several levers it can pull to keep the market from crashing & to allow a soft landing. ( DOROTHY pay no attention to the man behind the curtain ! ) Look at M3 @ 10% . I just believe it will fail. I believe it is their intent to fight Asian deflation with inflationary monetary policy & this will have a spellbinding affect on the masses for a while. This is fighting fire with gasoline !!! A one trick pony, a YOSEMETY SAM DIVING ACT!!!, Wizzing up a pipe . The B.S. firebrigade ( Abbie Cohen & Wall Street Week ) will be out in force on CNN/BUBBLE VISION tomorrow putting the happy gloss, pixy dust & silver lining spin on this for the great unwashed who are about to receive the baptism of fire & fleecing known to Wallstreet insiders as the "mysterious liquidity cruntch/crash". Wealth vanishes into air...thin air & doesn't reappear for 10 to 20 years!!!
Fighting deflation with loose monetary policy...? GEE, what's that like ? Pushing on a string or finding a borrower or lender in Tokyo where rates are under 2% for borrowers with credit as good as the BOJ !!!
Treating a bad case of deflation brought on by insolvency with more debt, more paper ( OR CYBER ELECTRONS ) or low rates is bleeding a patient with a critical internal hemorhage !!!
No, IMHO I don't think tomorrow is the blow off, but it sure is time to take cover. When it comes , IMHO it will be a blow off & not a slow bleed.
Tar Baby

Happy Hunting & Chow !!!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:18 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

FLASH...... This is a diversified Gold mutual with Hourly switching

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:19 - ID#288157)
A. Goose, Thanks and some news site updates (?)
ITN is set to launch a major international
one-hour news programme on American public
television. ITN Chief Executive Stewart Purvis
said the deal would give millions of Americans a
choice of breakfast viewing between ABC,
CBS, NBC and ITN."

ITN also just completed purchase of Euronews...hope it will now
be online in English, in addition to the French...

If you haven't yet, check out the FTSE site; good dbs and an intereting forum ( becuase many of the FT staff writers query there ) .

Re: Kitco--I couldn't access for the longest time, now I seem to be
the only one who can access. Feels like the end of the world... ( perhaps one shouldn't make whimsical remarks like that at a time like this!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:23 - ID#270224)
Remember what Abby Cohen says!!! Nikkei down 909.
When in doubt buy into the U.s. "SUPERTANKER MARKET"!!!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:25 - ID#401460)
Good Night All - Go Gold!!!
I have to hit the pillow - big meeting in the am.
Need to make that US$ so I can rush over and exchange it for something of real value - GOLD.
My mining stocks have returned nicely this week and look as if to bounce some more over the next 12 or so hours.

Thanks for all of the posts, and have fun with the triple witch today.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:30 - ID#200201)

For the last few days access has been very flaky in the evening hours. Sign of the times we think -- a good sign. Many lukers, many from the various governments trying to get a handle on what to next, I guess.

Boy, it would be great to be able to get info from ITN. I don't watch evening news anymore ... just can't take the pabulum ( sp ) .

I am getting quite excited. Silver has been a good leader. I really liked the recent action of platinum and palladium, I took the drop as a last attempt to drive gold down. The recent rally of all pm's was very positive. And this evening's action is continuing to look good IMHO.

Nekkei is so close to breaking 15000 and no one is talking about it. Very positive. U.S. and Japanese are starting to work at cross purposes. Very positive.

Can't wait to see London,s open. And then Comex. As Arden has pointed out, the gold and silver stocks have comtinued to drop. Silver is moving on that situation and I think gold is next.

I am worn out. Got to turn in. Merry Christmas.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:31 - ID#270224)
From the mouths of Babes
My son just came in and asked me why I was up so late. He is 14 and I told him because the Japanese stock market is crashing. He asked what that means to us. I said we're okay. He said why because you are lucky. I said no because we don't buy overpriced crap! Recommendation buy only low cost silver and gold producers. Remember what happened to Rea Gold. Any one care to comment on low cost debt free gold producers e.g. Franco Nevada?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:33 - ID#288157)
Prosit! To our German friends, to friends everywhere, to safety,
to peace, to goodwill, and a lil chaser of Good Luck!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:33 - ID#261151)
The Wonder Dog

I just checked out that ITN site. Oh, Hell's bells! Now we Gotta worry about a killer strain of "chicken flu" from Hong Kong spreading around the world! El Nino, Y2K, Currency Crises.... if it ain't one thing, it's ANOTHER!

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:37 - ID#24140)
For Flash-

Listen to what Nick says and ignore others - Barrick

is for dead heads.

For down under, and if you have strong nerves, I would

suggest Ramsgate or Delta, but Nick may have better


In RSA - there are so many I dont know where to start.

Randfontein, Rangold ( !! ) , Vaal. For conservative


- suggest Anglo american, the worlds biggest resource

company - produces almost as much gold as the USA,

maybe half the worlds platinum, Diamonds, manganese,

and even coal. Diversified hey.

Many Americans do not know of this company ( among

many other things ) . Perhaps this is due to limited

information they receive from media ( need to know

basis old chap ) or a general dulling of senses caused

by listening to too many of Clinton's speeches,

eating too much fast food, or having watched too many

episodes of LA Law.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:41 - ID#270224)
John_Disney. I mean no disrespect but....
Why buy South African mining companies with $300/ounce U.S. production costs when there are lots of companies around with sub $200/ounce production costs?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 01:46 - ID#22882)

Some mid to small caps that have been recently hard hit, but have shown consistant profits over the years:
Prime Resources Group ( PRU in Toronto )
Richmont Mines ( RIC in Toronto ) and
Viceroy Resource ( VOY in Toronto )
Viceroy took a big write off in 96, this has effected its consistant profitability. Viceroy sells gold forward at over $400 and if she bought out this position it would put some pretty cash proceeds into its coffers.
Other smaller operators that could surprise are Aurizon Mines ( ARZ-tor ) . ( site not up yet ) .
Remember do your DD.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 02:00 - ID#252150)
Newtron, RE yen, CB intervention & jaw-boning.
I really think this whole mess will end badly. Especially after yen performance today. But every time I think that the apocalyse/collapse is imminent I think back to all the dire forecasts that were made over the years about Italy. I can remember reading at least 10, maybe 15 years ago when they were running budget deficits well over 5%, that their economy was on the verge of collapse. Now they are in better shape to meet the EMU criteria than France or Germany. Even here in Canada we have come back from being a basket case to actually running a budget surplus this year ( despite Cherokee's wild rantings ) . I would never bet against Greenspan & Rubin with all the levers at their command. No doubt it will end badly... but when? As many au bugs have found out to their dismay,timing is eveything.

Thanks for congrats on Yen trade.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 02:07 - ID#252150)
Newtron, meant Nikkie performance not yen.
Too late to think straight.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 02:13 - ID#432148)
KO...earnings and dividends, that's why!

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 02:30 - ID#24140)
This is getting really boring
For KO ( of the pretentious moniker )

I mean lots of disrespect - get yourself a calculator - do some

simple math - stop spouting conventional wisdom - think and study

before you speak, little grasshopper.

Buy what you like and crash and burn -

(Fri Dec 19 1997 02:35 - ID#301318)
I'm takin notes...
Keep 'em comin!

Nick: will meet you in BKK to place a bet on a mare!
Disney: we 'mercans too lazy, media wants soft heads for $$$
Schippi: will consider
Explorer: eh! thanks!
Tzadeak: like your mix

The morning news should be interesting. Will check back after my snooz & brew, still have a day job.
Thanks all

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 02:40 - ID#24140)
Glass jaws and round heels
For KO

I assume they call you that because you've been knocked out so

many times.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 02:45 - ID#33164)
This too good to waste
"Yesterday is a canceled check; tomorrow is a promissory note; today is the
only cash you have. Spend it wisely."

Morning ALL!!- quick hello to all, and to those going on holiday or celebrating Christmas .
Treasure your moments, and may joy come to you all!

Best regards, Colleen

(Fri Dec 19 1997 03:10 - ID#270224)
John_Disney A Temper! Temper!
Obviously we all get to buy what we like!

I prefer debt free low cost producers!

Check out the number of well run gold mines that don't make a profit on even a $70 spread between the gold price and their production costs - e.g. Agnico Eagle. What happens to companies like these if gold goes to $300-325 U.S. range and sits there with high interest rates? They borrow more money by floating more debentures etc.... Who needs the hassle. I've high cost producers like ASA in the past and made money on them but not today!! The risk is too high and unneccessary.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 03:15 - ID#419147)

The server cannot find location, could connect to
here via old saved link, no charts,
no prices no nothing ( xept posted
comments ) ..any1 has the same problem?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 03:21 - ID#26144)
Gabernax (bernatz?)
Yes, I am finding a similar problem I get Kitco only after a very long wait but it seems to be stuck at 2:07 a.m. .... Does anyone out there have RECENT quotes?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 03:27 - ID#270224)
Gold Price $288.90 US
I got this from my discount broker web site. It should be accurate within 20 minutes. i.e Greenline Micromax

(Fri Dec 19 1997 03:33 - ID#26144)
Thanks for the quote. To Mr. Disney; the logic of KO makes sense to
me - lower production costs, more profit. Obviously there must be
other important factors which influence your preference for SA mining
shares other than patriotism. ( IE volume available, etc? ) I would very much appreciate your comments. Thankyou.....

(Fri Dec 19 1997 03:39 - ID#23782)
John Disney
I nibbled on the Durban Deep ADRs yesterday.
1 19/32. Do you have an opinion?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 03:40 - ID#393224)

Is this the Kitco url you are using?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 03:43 - ID#393224)
Looks like the frames version is out of order.

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 03:44 - ID#24140)
Beamer - if you are in old roundheels corner then you will go down

with him - You reference to "patriotism" is dumbo ^2. I was born in

Richmond,VA - and carry an Aussie passport. _ But Ive Never bought

a NA gold mine - When I have time - Ill show you how to calculate

actual and irrefutable gold mining COSTS. In the meantime dont post

me and figure it out for yourself using "logic".

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 03:49 - ID#24140)
For sweat-

My comment - You Got B*LLS.

Great gold call - However - you may want to consider Rangold -

holds DD plus Harmony - and is at a considerable discount to asset


(Fri Dec 19 1997 03:53 - ID#26144)
John Disney
Perhaps I should have phrased my query differently -- in any case,
I'm not in anyone' corner - just trying to increase my knowledge
base. I assume you are referring to the practice that North American
mining co's. have of quoting "cash cost", which I again assume ( I am
quite new to this ) do not include the administration expenses and
up front cost such as mill set up,etc. ? I have often wondered in reading various "new releases" what the total costs are, as "cash costs" are those most often quoted. Thanks for your feedback.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 03:59 - ID#23782)
What is Rangolds ADR symbol?
It is not on my spreadsheet.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 04:04 - ID#270224)
Gold now $288.25 US Goodnight!!
Hope you all get rich!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 04:15 - ID#432148)
East Rand Gold & Uranium Co. Ltd
Last .97 Vol 1870 High .97 Low .88

Previous Close .97 Previous Volume 10

52 Week High 2.13-52 Week Low .52

Dividend Yield 29.40%

Annual Est. EPS .21

PE Ratio 5

Good luck, or do you prefer Franco Nevada?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 04:19 - ID#432148)
AURATOR - Dediicated to you, my friend ;-)

Subject: Long Train Ride

A WWII American soldier had been on the front lines in Europe for three
months, when he was finally given a week of R&R. He caught a supply
boat to a supply base in the south of England, then caught a train to
The train was extremely crowded and he could not find a seat. He was dead
on his feet and walked the length of the train looking for any place to

Finally he found a compartment with seats facing each other; there was
room for two people on each seat. On one side sat only a proper looking,
older British lady, with a small dog sitting in the empty seat beside

"Could I please sit in that seat" he asked.

The lady was insulted; "you Americans are so rude" she said, "can't
you see my dog is sitting there"?

He walked through the train more and still could not find a seat. He
found himself back at the same place.

"Lady, I love dogs - have a couple at home - so I would be glad to hold
your dog if I can sit down" he said.

The lady replied "you Americans are not only rude you are arrogant" she

He leaned against the wall for a time, but was so tired he finally said,
"lady, I've been on the front lines in Europe for three months with not a
decent rest for all that time; could I please sit there and hold your

The lady replied, "you Americans are not only rude and arrogant, you are
also obnoxious."

With that comment, the soldier calmly stepped in, picked up the dog,
it out the window, and sat down. The lady was speechless. An older,
dressed Englishman sitting across on the other seat spoke up.

"Young man, I do not know if all you Americans fit the lady's
description of you or not. But I do know that you Americans do a lot of
things wrong. You drive on the wrong side of the road, you hold your
with the wrong hand, and now you have just thrown the wrong bitch out of
the window."

( Apoligies to Bart re band width. )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 04:33 - ID#432148)
Gold Prices - Globex
DBC showing gold up 1.00, silver up .07, ABN up .90 and .02. Globex says NYSE will be looking out below. Does anyone have the EBN url?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 04:45 - ID#23782)
Contenders and pretenders. Nuff said

(Fri Dec 19 1997 04:50 - ID#393224)

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 05:02 - ID#24140)
Tough guys dont dance. They dont buy Barrick either.
For KO, Flash, And Beamer

I read KO's paper with great interest - Before I began

my special course for the fifth time on how to assess

value of mines, I have a little quizzie for you three


You say barrick has costs of 200 $/oz and we ALL

know how great they are at selling forward ( and busting

the market ) now dont we kiddies - so we can assume

revenue of 410$/oz. But if I look at their results

well HOLY COW they lost 0.28$/share. Now you 3 kiddies

put your little headies together and tell me why

they didnt make a profit of 210$/oz on their production.

Quizzie no 2. KO ( better known as roundheels ) says that

asa ( which is not a mining co but an investment co ) has

high costs etc --- But in the same environment as ABX,

ASA had earnings of $0.99 per share while good old ABX

lost money. Now how does that work kiddies ??

Quizzie no 3 - KO says he likes companies with little


Well abx has 500 mill $ debt. ASA has zero debt. ASA's

underlying companies mainly anglos have ZERO debt. So

why did KO say that - beats the hell outta me. Tell me

why KO??

Now Im going out for a while. I hope you have the

answer to my questions by the time I get back or you


(Fri Dec 19 1997 05:06 - ID#26793)
Globex down 11.40

(Fri Dec 19 1997 05:11 - ID#26793)
All of Europe except Turkey in the red

(Fri Dec 19 1997 05:15 - ID#26793)
Bundesbank leaves rates unchanged; M3 targets to be announced later

(Fri Dec 19 1997 05:16 - ID#261269)
Did the Nikkei ever reopen? I still have the 9:02 quote???

(Fri Dec 19 1997 05:24 - ID#393224)
Oh My
Have you found that giant Koala yet, mate?? Hope those aren't silver knives you're trying to catch bare handed. Could get expensive. Any comments Auracious and I have made about your country should be taken as if your brother was telling you that you have b.o.. Oh my. Canucks have been telling you that for years. I thought the most telling of Auracious' comments was that you are giving m.f.n. status to your 'enemies' while you are busy screwing your mates ( or words to that effect ) . Now will you let me out of the dungeon???

BTW--did you notice that Luc Longley single handedly wiped out a gaggle of Lakers!!OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOhhhhhhhh MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!Go da Bulls!!!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 05:30 - ID#393224)
Globex S&P -1170

All currencies except peso up against US$

(Fri Dec 19 1997 05:40 - ID#393224)
Steve Kaplan:
German Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer announced Thursday morning that there was a consensus among
European central bankers to include some gold in the reserves of the future European Central Bank, though he said
that precise figures had not yet been finalized. He also restated that the Bundesbank would not sell gold under any

Platinum being accumulated by commercials.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 05:47 - ID#393224)
bah humbug-speed read this one

Asia's woes fill the
pundits with bah-humbug

Washington Observed,
By Colleen Ryan

The Christmas spirit was distinctly absent in Washington
this week as the Asian economic crisis and scenarios of
impending disaster gripped the pundits.

Anti-Chinese pogroms in Indonesia. A forced
devaluation in China with devastating consequences for
the global economy. Comparisons with the collapse of
Credit Anstalt in Vienna in 1931, which eventually led to
the collapse of the pound sterling. These were just a few
of the ponderings.

In a rush of seminars on the Asian economic crisis and
the future of the Japanese economy, doom and gloom

At the same time, fears of the increasing isolationism of
the US Congress darkened the mood of political

While the concentration of pundits remains fixed on
Japan and Korea, some analysts were looking at the
potential dangers in store for Indonesia and China. And,
by extension, for the global economy.

Despite China's pledge at the ASEAN meeting this week
that it would not devalue its currency, the possibility that
it may have to, remains a significant fear amongst
economic analysts.

David Hale, economist with Zurich Kemper, who has just
returned from Beijing, told a CSIS conference in
Washington yesterday: "Senior officials say they are not
going to devalue. The President has said he will not
devalue. But middle level officials are already lobbying
for devaluation. The hope is that they hold off for 12 to
18 months and give Korea and the ASEAN countries
some time to adjust and recover. Then, perhaps, a five to
10 per cent devaluation could be handled. But if China
did devalue now it would probably topple the Hong
Kong dollar.

"China is critical," Hale added. "If it did devalue it would
be very, very destabilising. The effects would be
powerful globally." Fred Bergsten, director of the
Institute of International Economics in Washington, was
also downbeat at a World Bank/IMF seminar.

"In my view, any renewed large depreciation by any of
the major countries in the region could trigger a further
spiral which would literally have disastrous global effects
in terms of confidence and market reaction," Bergsten

He cited a drop in the yen from 130 to 150 ( "as it easily
could if market forces alone carried the day" ) , a
depreciation in Taiwan, or Hong Kong being forced off
its peg, as major destabilising events.

"Or if China, noting that its currency has now
experienced a real appreciation of 40 per cent over the
last three years, decided that for competitive reasons it,
too, had to join the race to avoid an undermining of its
competitive position, then I believe the currency
devaluations and depreciations would again erupt even
more vigorously than in the past few weeks and the
world financial system would be subject, undoubtedly, to
its strongest crisis of the entire post-war period."

Bergsten said that while China was not subject to the
external pressure of currency speculators it has the same
structural difficulties that could be worse than the other
Asian countries in crisis.

"The banking system in China probably has more bad
loans outstanding than even the banking system of Japan.
The corporate structure in China is still 50 per cent tied
up in State-owned enterprises which is even worse than
the Korean chaebol system by some significant
magnitude," Bergsten said.

"I think in China frankly it's a race against time." Doug
Paal of the Asia Pacific Center warned: "There is a very
severe banking crisis looming in China." The situation in
Indonesia is viewed as of particular concern by David
Hale. "Half of Indonesia's major corporations are
technically bankrupt if we don't get the rupiah back to
three or four thousand," he said.

Separately, he commented that the new shock on the
international horizon, after Korea, could well be
Indonesia. "This meltdown in its currency could lead to a
wave of corporate bankruptcies and this could be very
destabilising. If I were an Australian security planner right
now I would be building a contingency scenario for what
could be a disaster," Hale said.

"That is not the most likely outcome," he added. "The
most likely outcome is that if Soeharto keeps fading and
is ineffective there could be a military takeover. That's the
benign scenario. Let's say we don't get that outcome, the
struggle for power could be very unstable. Then you
could have the outcome of populism and an anti-Chinese
pogrom. Indonesia is inherently unstable on an ethnic
basis if something goes wrong," Hale said.

Another potential shock on the horizon is the likely
negative attitude of Congress to an increase in IMF
funding. Comments by key Congressmen this week --
members of the banking and economic committees in the
House -- suggested that existing IMF funding bills would
be very difficult to get through.

The Clinton Administration also backed away from any
support for a further increase in IMF quotas. These were
requested by managing director, Michel Camdessus,
during the week. The US has an effective veto on quota
increases due to its voting power in the IMF.

"If the US Congress fails to approve additional resources
for the IMF it would be viewed very, very negatively and
investors should increase their risk premium and lower
their forecasts for economic growth over the next 20
years," Hale said yesterday.

"There has to be a policy framework to deal with this
new environment. The IMF is more important now than
any of us thought possible even two years ago. We
should not ignore the risk. This is a very serious political
problem. If we don't get effective leadership [on it from
the US] it could cost us potential growth in the first
decade of the 21st century."

(Fri Dec 19 1997 05:51 - ID#255151)
Family Feud

Nick of Canberra, aurator--Just had to step in here. Your comments were not offensive to me at all. Your analogy is spot on. When brothers get into a squable, watch what happens when someone else tries to intervene. Woe to those who would try to take advantage of the disagreement.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 06:20 - ID#432148)
Sweat... Randgold symbol , RNG in South Africa
RANGY, for adrs. Use this...

(Fri Dec 19 1997 06:28 - ID#419147)
IMF Nick@bah..

Uhm..I am too dumb to understand the finece'
of nowdays monetary system so could anyone explain
where is this IMF cash flow coming from??

As I understand it has thrown around some
100 billion US$ by now and asks for more,
so whose money is it ( it does not have a
printing press right? )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 06:33 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton
S+P futures down 12.40---------Dollar down ------triple witchin-----could be a good day for the 'yellow stuff'....

(Fri Dec 19 1997 06:35 - ID#39845)
Oh Oh Oh Oh Hummmmmm
Just took a big dose of Tim Lihry. If I start tripping and have
visions of future directions I will alert all. Think I'll just
wind back and see how my liver handles it. Peace to all and may
our visions verge. Kitco's are at it! Excuse my exuberance!10 4

(Fri Dec 19 1997 06:36 - ID#393224)
According to a recent survey by The Academy of Incomplete Research nine out of ten

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 06:38 - ID#287367)
G'day mate! I thought your comment was extraordinarily

(Fri Dec 19 1997 06:41 - ID#364147)
@ Feb. Gold and ''The grateful Dead"
J.Disney: "Dead heads"-now yer talkin bro!!..Feb. Gold up 2.0~~~~~~~~

(Fri Dec 19 1997 06:50 - ID#39845)
those Tim Lihry's are surely working cause I just ripped the lid off
a bottle of Jameson's. If these trips don't work I'll just hit 22 standard drinks and sleep in the shower. Physicssicssicssicssicsssss

(Fri Dec 19 1997 06:54 - ID#364147)
@ Hedgehog
We got similar interests~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:00 - ID#39845)
Eagle's brealfast
Ted, hui, ok GODD and whoo ever wants to be here. If I fail and kiss air do you think fuzzy wuzzy angels will look after my soul?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:01 - ID#393224)
Hedgehog--cheers. G'day Ted. How's the sale of the century goin' mate? Crystal Ball - gold seems to be consolidating at a slightly higher price. Rub yer ball for us, mate. 300 before 280??

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:04 - ID#31868)
Crystal Ball
This looks like it is going to be ugly today. My answer to what gives with the dollar and bonds is simple. People are stupid. Up to a point they are both safe and then you enter no man's land and all of a sudden you are caught playing Monopoly in the real world.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:06 - ID#432148)



Last updated: 97/12/19, 7:30 p.m. JST


Tokyo Stks Plunge At Close On Bankruptcy Fears; Nikkei -5.2%

TOKYO ( Dow Jones ) -Tokyo stocks plunged at the close Friday, with the

Nikkei average ending down 5.2%, after Thursday's failure of foodstuffs

distributor Toshoku Ltd. triggered panic selling of shares in companies

seen as financially weak.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:08 - ID#364147)
@ Nick(C) + the Hedgehog
Nick ( C ) : It appears to be a done-deal but till I get my grubby fingers on the cash.....but it better be cause we just did a contract on another piece of property!!! Hedgie: Yer soul ( like mine ) is in deep do-do...How bout tryin a little 'sunshine'

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:10 - ID#364147)
WSJ Grain speak
Grain Prices Drop Sharply
On Demise of Asian Firm


Grain prices dropped sharply after a Japanese food trader filed for
protection from its creditors, touching off fears that U.S. exports may
suffer because of continuing Asian financial problems.

In heavy trading in the Chicago Board of Trade's futures pits, corn for
December delivery fell five cents, or 1.92%, to $2.56 a bushel, the lowest
closing price for a nearby corn contract since Sept. 19. The more active
March 1998 contract slid five cents to $2.6725 a bushel.

Traders said prices were pressured throughout the trading day after the
announcement was made by Japan's Toshoku Ltd., a food-trading
company with a reported $5 billion in debts.

Wheat and soybean prices also fell sharply on the news, despite relatively
positive export numbers for soymeal and soybeans. Both December and
March wheat fell 12.25 cents, with the more active March contract sliding
to a lifetime low $3.34 a bushel before bouncing back slightly to close at
$3.3425 a bushel.

"News that a commodities trading firm goes bankrupt and rumors that
other firms are having difficulties means the demand profile could be more
limited," said Daniel Basse, executive vice president of AgResource Co., a
Chicago research firm. "If you have fewer players [to buy U.S. grains],
who will load the boats, who will take the grain?"

After the announcement, fear built throughout the day among grain traders
that Japan, a key consumer of U.S. agricultural commodities, will have to
reduce its intake due to credit problems. Toshoku, a major importer of
corn and wheat, said it was forced to file by bad debts stemming from
financial investment during Japan's "bubble" period of inflated asset prices
in the late 1980s. But it said cash flow from its core business remains
strong, so it believes it can restructure itself. Toshoku is the ninth listed
company this year to file for protection in Japan, the largest foreign
consumer of U.S. corn.

"In any business, if your biggest buyer is having a financial problem, that's
not good for business," said Steve Freed, a trader for ADM Investor
Services in Chicago. In addition to the psychological damage to the
market, traders said that selling was done Thursday on behalf of the
Japanese grain-trader. "Toshoku had positions in the market; they were
liquidated, and it raises concerns," said Mr. Basse, who indicated that
some grain marked for shipment might be delayed until a new buyer could
be found.

Thursday's news may keep prices under pressure during the usually-light
holiday trading sessions, said Joe Victor, director of marketing for
Allendale Inc., a Crystal Lake, Ill., commodity brokerage and research
firm. "This is a sour note on a table of grapes already starting to spoil," said
Mr. Victor.

Indeed, export demand for U.S. crops has weakened this year, and many
analysts are blaming the trend on a decrease in Asia's need for livestock
feed. According to U.S. Department of Agriculture figures released earlier
this week, wheat export inspections trailed the 1996 pace by 5.9%, while
corn trailed by 20.2% and soybeans were 21.7% ahead. Thursday, U.S.
exporters' net corn sales hit a low for the crop year. At 378,900 metric
tons for the week ending Dec. 11, sales had fallen 50% below the
four-week average, the USDA said.

In other commodity markets:

ENERGY: Reports of reduced production at a major U.S. refinery sent
gasoline futures higher at the New York Mercantile Ex

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:11 - ID#287367)
@Nick (C)
I rubbed my ball for all I'm worth, and all I got for my trouble was some chafing. Please pass the Vitamin A&D ointment. Thanks! ;- )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:15 - ID#39845)
Well Ted
Do Do is my business. And from what I have heard, presipitation makes gold worth ????????????????????????????

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:16 - ID#364147)
@ Crystal Ball
My black magic ball is on the blink too---all it says is "try again later"

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:18 - ID#364147)
@ Hedgie
Must be strong sh! Dr.Ted says "take more dude"....

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:20 - ID#36965)
Joke of the Day
Morn'n Ted and you salty seaworthy seekers of silver. News of your house sale while we are yet in the dead of winter was good news. Bodes well. Gold and silver prices this morning are music to the ears. Brings to mind the following story.

A number of years ago, the Seattle Symphony was doing Beethoven's Ninth under the baton of Milton Katims. At this point, you must understand two things:

1. There's a long segment in this symphony where the bass violins don't have a thing to do. Not a single note for page after page;

2. There used to be a tavern called Dez's 400 right across the street from the Seattle Opera House, rather favored by local musicians.

It had been decided that during this performance, after the bass players had played their parts in the opening of the Ninth, they were to quietly lay down their instruments and leave the stage rather than sit on their stools looking and feeling dumb for twenty minutes.

Well, once they got backstage, someone suggested that they trot across the street and have a few brews. After they had downed the first couple rounds, one said, "Shouldn't we be getting back? It'd be awfully embarrassing if we were late."

Another, presumably the one who suggested this excursion in the first place, replied, "Oh, I anticipated we could use a little more time, so I tied a string around the last pages of the conductor's score. When he gets down to there, Milton's going to have to slow the tempo way down while he waves the baton with one hand and fumbles with the string with he other." So they had another round and finally returned to the Opera House, a little tipsy by now.

However, as they came back on stage, one look at their conductor's face told them they were in serious trouble.

Katims was furious! And why not?

After all . . . It was the bottom of the Ninth, the score was tied, and the basses were loaded.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:24 - ID#364147)
@ Tort
Mornin Tort ( ya ready for the closing? )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:24 - ID#39845)
Ted, a pine forest, yeilds the other dimension.
Gold is going to shoot its wadddddddddddddddddd!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:27 - ID#364147)
Hedgie's state of mind(?)
hmmmmmm....let's see---shooting wads and pine forests ( increase the dose and strap yourself to the recliner )

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:30 - ID#287367)
Kind sir! Pray tell, what did you mean exactly when you said "it" was going to get ugly today? I'm perched on the edge of my seat waiting your reply!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:30 - ID#36965)
I'm ready
Send me them there closing documents and I will put my legal eye to the grindstone for you.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:35 - ID#39845)
Ted.... Nothin will be in my ears but doi di do do do doooorrrrssssssss
like this is over 'n'out.soooooosooo soso soooooooooooooo go gold
how pathetic go go gollfdldldl go gold . yeh!!!!!!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:36 - ID#31868)
Crystal Ball, not really an answer but I was getting ready to post it.
Deaf ears

Statistics use innovative dexterity,
nimbly sashay side to side, skulk
near intersections, court
the limelight sporadically, flash
their deductions on a frail trapeze,
huddle with yesterday's dead
news too late, having flaunted
their educated conclusions too
soon. Collectively, they present
an elastic voice.
They pay
attention who thrive
on bewilderment, watch the elected
manipulate credulity, passive,
deserving what sticks
in their craws.
They fleer
against ostensible facts who do not
possess the tools of rational opinion
yet gullibly swallow advertisements,
believing they choose their purchases.

What lurks in an alley, hoping
to hide, lies like a mat on a dais.
Ill-informed braggarts trip over their own
feet when they verbalize.

It's not good enough to be against
everything that's spat at us
or spoonfed with honey, declaimed
from pulpit or rostrum.

There's much to be said for brick
walls free of acoustical properties, well
pointed, separating both
sides of the fence, crumbling perhaps
in due course, division no longer needed
and differences forgotten by time.


Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:37 - ID#287367)
All this talk of land deals brought to mind the following story...

A fella was in the market to buy some acreage. He found just what he was looking for, but it was a little expensive. During an inspection of the property, however, he found a hive of bees. He told the owner that he was deathly afraid of bees, and there was no way he could consider this piece of land. The landowner assured him that the bees were completely harmless, but the buyer would have no part of it.

Finally, the landowner made an offer. The buyer would allow himself to be tied to a tree for an hour, nude, under the nest. So sure of the friendliness of his bees was the farmer that if ONE bee were to sting him, the farm would be his for free. The buyer thought it over and decided it was worth the risk.

An hour later, the farmer walked out to the tree and saw the poor buyer slumped over in his bindings. Fearing the worst, he ran up to him and asked him if he had been stung.

The city fella looked up and weakly said, "No, but doesn't that calf have a mother?"

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:41 - ID#31868)
Crystal Ball
Cruel, can we arrange to tie Camdessus to that tree?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:42 - ID#286410)
Can someone please give me a URL for spot platinum price as
up to date as possible.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:43 - ID#410114)
Weimar Germany
Hello All:

I once read an account of a American college student living in Germany during the Weimar collapse.

He deposited his US dollars with a German bank. A day or two later the bank manager suggested that he speculate in the German marakets. The market suggested was the stock market. He agreed. The bank bought shares in various german stocks which made a fortune for the college student. He made money so fast that his gains were good even calulated in US dollars. This was dispite the german inflation. Then one day everyone stopped buying german stocks.

The bank notified him of this buy noting in his account statement that the postage for his statement was greater than the value of his account and therefor the bank considered his account closed.

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:48 - ID#287367)
Why do you want to be so nice to Camdessus?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:50 - ID#286410)
im still standing.
South Africa JSE All Gold. +3.0 ( 0.39% )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:52 - ID#36965)
Land and Calves
Crystal Ball, you know your calves. Good story. Reminds me of the movie with Woody Harrelson where he went back east to find his friends daughter.

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 07:57 - ID#287367)
All the recent news about the tobacco industry brought to mind another story..

Two old ladies were waiting for a bus and one of them was smoking a cigarette. It started to rain, so the old lady reached into her purse and pulled out a condom, cut off the tip and slipped it over her cigarette and continued to smoke. Her friend saw this and said, "Hey, now that's a good idea! What is that your putting over your cigarette?" The other old lady said, "It's a condom." "A condom? Where do you get those?" The lady with the cigarette told her that she could purchase them at a pharmacy. When the two old ladies arrived downtown, the old lady with all the questions went into the pharmacy and asked the pharmacist if he sold condoms . The pharmacist said yes, but looked a little surprised that this little old lady was interested in condoms. He asked her, "what size do you want?" The old lady thought for a moment and said, "one that will fit a Camel."

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:03 - ID#287367)
For a while when I lived in Indiana I had a bull calf named "Norman." ( This was when "City Slickers" came out )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:04 - ID#31868)
Crystal Ball
Ugly is as Ugly does. This thing was born a while ago, it crawled for a while, stutter-stepped for a while, and now it has a life of its own. The supposed powers that be will be crushed as this thing starts doing what it wants.

The world wide markets cannot handle these massive gyrations. Like a top out of control and heading for the edge of the table, it is only a matter of time until the inevitable. The top wildly races to the edge, but this time it falls off, into a free fall.

If not today, or Monday, very soon. The pings that sharefin mentioned have grown to a massive crescendo. The deafening roar of the Tsunami will engulf all.

Get Camdesuss! Purveryor of horsepucky, dog bottom infector, charlatan writing checks with money that never existed but is charged to the account of the taxpayer. Printin Clintin, Enviro-whore Gore, Robbin Rubin one and all - full of crap.

The "glitch" has been hitched to a financial whirlwind and the markets will soon be tossed about like a doll in car wreck.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:05 - ID#288157)
early AvidTrader comments...
Fri, Dec 19, 6:25AM CST ( -0600 GMT )

With Merril going bearish and Acampora, I guess that means the big guys are ready for Ma and Pa to start selling.

we appear to be probing for a threshold that will trigger a mkt 'puke' - looks closer on VL

Goldman long puts. Yes, they are ready for us to sell.

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:08 - ID#287367)
Re your 8:04 - - Now that's the Tolerant1 I know and love! Give 'em some more hellfire and damnation! Hallelujah!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:11 - ID#390214)
US 30yr Yield bonds(flight to safety or being dumped?)
EBN shows yield at 5.91% ( Feds buying, Japan dumping! ) I estimate that Japan has dumped less than 25% of its holdings and the effect has been shaving of at least .50% ( from 6.45%, before "flight to saftey" was inaugured.

It appears that Japan needs $75 billions ( according to their announced plan, re: banking failures etc. ) If that is the case we will see yields down to 5.60 level before long.

What are the implications?

Firstly Japan's troubles could be deeper than estimated do to unwounding of derivatives thus more than the projected $75 bn will have to be sold.

Who's going to buy? the Feds?

Secondly HongKong, who has been put in the 'background' sooner than later are going to join the tailspin, as the currency devaluations of their neighbours take a toll at their exports. Tourism to HongKong is down dramatically ( service industry is the MAIN employer ) . Property values plunging and interest rates rising. How long before we see the 'unpegging of the HK $ to the US $.

How long before the speculators renew their attack on Hong Kong? When?

HongKong has over 80 billion US $ in reserve. Are they going to dump US $? Who's going to buy? the Feds?

With US trade deficit to balloon in 1998 due to currency devaluations and foreigners, curtailment of US bonds purchases. Who's going to buy ? the Feds?

Brazil, Canada, Mexico ( US's biggest trading partners are on the 'ropes'

Their currencies threatened ( less US imports, more exports ) their stockmarket threatened and tanking!

That leaves the Abby Cohen's, Battipaglia, Grenville Dow bubble. Yes the "New Paradigm" is here!

The US stock market will tank ! The US $ will tank!

Let these 'SUCKERS' buy US bonds and stocks! Let them continue 'shorting gold!'. Let the IMF SELL ( they did in 1979 before gold took off to over $800. )

Goldbugs will emerge VICTORIOUS! We're on the WINNING SIDE! The blood on the streets is not going to be those of GOLDBUGS.

GOLD has not lost a WAR only small battles throughout history.


Go gold.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:11 - ID#419147)
mining companies
Looks like mining companies are starting to close their forward positions;
Wheaton River Minerals repurchased 70,000 ounces of its forward gold
sale position for a gain of approximately $6 million.
Dakota Mining Corporation purchased 83,600 ounces of gold to offset a portio
of its hedge position relative to the operating, Illinois Creek, Alaska gold
mine. Dakota realized a gain of approximately $9.6 million.
Kinross Gold Corporation repurchased spot deferred contracts and fixed
forward sales contracts representing 200,400 ounces of gold. These
transactions generated approximately US $22.5 million of cash

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:15 - ID#287367)
I seem to recall that in 1987 when the market clanked it sucked down everything else with it; from gold, silver, and copper to corn, wheat, beans, and horsepucky. The only thing that did well was US Treasury Bonds. ( I'll never forget...they were up something of the order of NINE HUNDRED BASIS POINTS intraday ) Whadaya think, Swami?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:29 - ID#224149)
Damn it ! What is the price of Gold !!! This is a Gold Page !!!!!.Away to work you rotten scoundrels.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:34 - ID#31868)
Crystal Ball
I think the "money" looking for a home in 1997 is so much larger than ever before in history that things will be decidedly different. The mining stocks will go up not down. Physical will go wild.

There are trillions of pieces of paper looking for a home, a modest shift out of equities into the metals will result in a upward shock to these shares. Tangibles, things will become valuable. People will look to do anything but be in paper. But there are a great many lemmings. Let me ask you a question. What American in their right mind would buy their own debt at this point? It is a losing proposition from the get go.

I love silver and think it truly is the buy of a lifetime. I also like the BEARX fund. Mr. Tice is no dummy and this fund will be fabulous in a serious downturn.

Gold, I don't think I have to say anything there. In addition I don't think I need to mention that I think everybody ought to have physical to go along with mining shares.

The mining shares will become the darlings of the day IMHO. Also cash on hand will be valuable for a while, set up wire transfer activities in all of your systems so you can make immediate tranfers as you see fit. There will be a time to make money and then a time to preserve assets. The time in between is where fortunes can be made.

Do not, I repeat, DO NOT GET GREEDY! Take your time, relax and be firm in your decisions. Don't look back and have compassion for the lemmings.

Get Camdesuss that smeller of dog's bottoms.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:34 - ID#347447)
...and differences forgotten by time.
TOLERANT 1: You wax unusually poetic this morn ( unless, perchance, it be night for thou, though one might think from your prose it be sunset indeed for us all ) . Your "Deaf Ears" ranks with the Kitco poetic greats, the paens of Nick's Dad,the Aurations of Aurator, the glories of David MacCrory. My compliments.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:35 - ID#256254)
Date: Fri Dec 19 1997 08:29
Poorboys ( Kitco@Wake@up ) ID#224149:
try this one.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:37 - ID#256254)
Guess we might watch Brazil today
Friday December 19, 7:14 am Eastern Time

Brazil banks lost 705 mln reais in October-paper

SAO PAULO, Dec 19 ( Reuters ) - Brazilian banks lost 705 million reais during October's global financial turmoil, financial newspaper Gazeta
Mercantil said on Friday.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:40 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller
A most humble thank you.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:48 - ID#224149)
Thanks!!!!Goose .Away to catch the catcher in the rye.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 08:50 - ID#256254)
More on Brazil
Friday December 19, 8:09 am Eastern Time

Brazil shrs seen weaker at open on fresh Asia woes

Friday December 19, 8:17 am Eastern Time

Brazil oper deficit 3.14 pct/GDP in 12 mos to Oct

BRASILIA, Dec 19 ( Reuters ) - Brazil's public sector operational budget deficit in the 12 months to October was $26.599 billion reais, or 3.14
percent of gross domestic product, the Central Bank said.

Friday December 19, 8:25 am Eastern Time

Brazil automakers may cut prices up to 20 pct-Ipea

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:00 - ID#427357)
Friday witnessed 1997's greatest one day loss in the Nikkei. TOKYO trading closed with Nikkei down 5.7% for a 924 point loss. By the end of the day's trading Tokyo gold rose 2.0% and silver climbed 3.8% - Once at the the 24-Hour Gold Corner page, CLICK the TOKYO GOLD button:

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:03 - ID#256254)
Gold looking quite good this morning. Hope frames starts working soon.

Gold 2902 +10 8:56 am ET CBS marketwatch 8:56am


Last Updated Fri Dec 19 15:00:00 1997 CET

Description Value Change
Gold Spot 289.15 1.80 0.63%
Silver Spot 6.06 0.02 0.33%

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:04 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton
Feb. Gold up 1.60....Vronsky: Congrats,ya spelled Nikkei correctly today ( grin thing )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:04 - ID#427357)
The ORACLE of the Orient long absent from our website has returned with a vengeance in his scathing rebuttal of Central Bank spewing that gold is dead, that gold is no longer a hedge against economic and currency chaos, etc. etc. His succinct and extremely well-documented opinion concludes that Central Bank braying is RUBBISH, RUBBISH AND MORE RUBBISH.

The ORACLE proves beyond a shadow of doubt that the only defense southeast Asians had... AND WILL HAVE - against the on-going currency chaos, stock market turmoil and the regions crumbling bank system is to invest in GOLD. The staunchest and most fanatical anti-GOLDBUGS are obliged to concede to the irrefutable evidence that GOLD is the ONLY SAFE HARBOR vis--vis the looming and devastating Domino Effect engulfing the area:

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:05 - ID#344308)

timothy leary??? the moody blues, and i'm outside, looking in!
a most beautiful, telling song; as were most of the mbs' music.
now, about the spelling!!!!!!! is that no longer taught, or
did reading the dictionary ( regularly ) create a spelling monster??

12 days ( or less ) and counting.

'if i have "seen" farther than others, it is because i have stood on the
shoulders of giants' isaac newton

'the farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can "see"'
winston churchill

use your own eyes, listen to them, as they 'see' the truth. it is
the mind that bastardizes this clear vision into a myopic semblance
of the truth.

cherokee!;-standing on the shoulders of giants ( bears ) , looking
back, to see forward..........

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:09 - ID#31868)
No matter where you go, there you are.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:12 - ID#427357)
Friendly chiding
Ted: Thx for the friendly chiding which gave me a good chuckle. Late last night I discovered what was causing me to mis-spell Nikkei, like "Nekkei." I was using the right finger, but the wrong hand ( :- ) ) . When I discovered it, I was wondering why someone didn't all over me...

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:17 - ID#348286)
FORGET Saddam. Camdessus ( and his co-conspirators ) is the most dangerous man in the world.
Everyting that your forfathers worked for and saved, is be sacrificed by his actions and policies in the name of the new world order, and to the
benefit of a handfull of wealthy criminals.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:18 - ID#427357)
GOLD CONTINUES TO RISE... Today's Preference of Smart Money

GOLD UP $2.10 in early Comex trading. CLICK "Day & Night Trading" once at:

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:21 - ID#364147)
@ ain't alone bro
Would have said something last night but I type-write-SPELL so poorly I didn't have the nerve!! Feb. Gold up 2.0 ( YEEEEEESSSSSS ) ...S+P Futures down 9.40

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:30 - ID#256254)
frames are back -- thank goodness.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:30 - ID#427357)

Kamakaze Microsoft: KAMAKAZE TO HELL, "All Aboard, That's Goin' Aboard!"

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:32 - ID#256254)
Brazil Bovespa Index ^BVSP 9:32AM 9128 -355 -3.75%

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:42 - ID#344308)
and there i've always been!

throw out your gold teeth, and see how they roll..........
the answer they reveal, life is unreal........................

steely-----quite steely.

-----the paper-lovers fun in the sun is over, move over pricks,
the gold-bugs are movin' in

there has been a lot of discourse regarding the slamming of
gold bears on this site. the reason --imnsho-- is due to
the core belief of goldbugs, that currency MUST BE BACKED,
or it is worth only the paper and ink it is comprised of.
the use of gold for this purpose has historical precedent,
and thereby sits quite prominently at the head of the class.
it will always be so, as there will always be logical lovers
of real stores of value. pm's, grains oils, stuff........
move over paper lovers, stuff has a date with your daughter,
and she has her dress hiked! where is bernatz?

eb------you danged procrastinator! don't make me open the
closet door and shine the light on you & lgb!!!; ) !; ) yes,
lgb would like it.

cherokee!; ) ---live-from-the-future-------

(Fri Dec 19 1997 09:49 - ID#201131)
todays reaction to Korea etc
With todays crash overseas it is interesting to note that gold is up, the dollar flat to down and bonds basically up "only" a half. The dollar needs to rally on this day or gold really might make a run next week.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:00 - ID#185448)
At this time of the show, goldbugs have one big advantage: At least in 1997 we all had to learn how to deal with bad news, losses, mental depression freefalls, suicidal attacks, nightmares and a declining confidence of our social envirenment in our mental sanity and/or abilities as investors. Right now it seems, as if a lot of people will have to face the same psychological problems that weve gone through.

I had an excellent timing in selling my european and US-Stocks, my timing in buying PMs and PM-Stocks turned out to be rather lousy. But still Im convinced I bought them at scrap-value, and my investments were somewhat right. And by the way: I still like the feeling of owning some interesting shares of Junior-Gold-Explorers a lot more than all the boring highly profitable WallSt-papers I sold this year.

Macrohard times for Microsoft shareholders.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:01 - ID#344308)
ok vronsky---

now which hand or finger performed this magic? "kamakaze"???!; )

ted------don't be afraid of the lawn-mower blade!!

!; ) yes, it is good to be a gold-bug!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:04 - ID#256254)
Brazil Bovespa Index ^BVSP 10:02AM 9071 -412 -4.35%
Canada TSE 300 Composite ^TSE 10:03AM 6517.70 -77.24 -1.17%
Chile IGPA ^IGPA 10:03AM 4717.02 -37.43 -0.79%
Mexico IPC Index ^MXX 10:03AM 4951.710 -89.200 -1.77%
Peru Lima General ^IGRA 9:58AM 1733.15 -4.90 -0.28%
United States S&P 500 ^SPX 10:03AM 940.49 -14.81 -1.55%
Venezuela IBC ^IBC 10:03AM 8407.44 -83.73 -0.99%

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:04 - ID#410194)
Different smell
Although we still have to be extremely cautious and prudent, we must start noticing that Gold is now "acting" kind of different and there seems to be less pressure on it to go down in circumstances that were pushing it down like crazy for the last few months!

This is a good time to step back and have an "emotional free" look at the situation and think about what we will be all likely saying down the road about it: " could it go further down anyway?" ( Desperate mining situation.....great demand at bargain prices....CB sales news becoming oldish....change of psychology in people's minds...and a bunch of other reasons that will pop up only when it will make a strong move to the upside! )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:06 - ID#427357)

Undoubtedly, a few at Kitco might have been wondering "What is the relevance of MICROSOFT to the Precious Metals theme of Gold Forum." It is indeed relevant. Some market students believe MICROSOFT to be the LISTING FLAGSHIP OF A DYING STOCK MARKET. The capital appreciation of MSFT during the last five years is now legendary. However, all good things inevitably and eventually come to an end. Once the entire stock ground begins grinding down, informed money will pour into precious metals.

This morning MSFT Gapped Open DOWN 2 5/8 POINTS TO 127 31/32... taking out a recent low. As I speak it is now down 3-BUCKS. When the Flagship is finally hit, and begins to sink... follow the rats to the nearest exit for survival:

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:16 - ID#346248)
Plunge protection team alert!!
Gold on the rise, better get to work boys and begin shorting. We must

keep up interest in those US Treaseries. Good time for the Feds to buy some Blue Chip High Tecs. and give the DOW a much needed boost.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:24 - ID#339450)
KTF re free energy request
old friend of mine, chas yost, former nasa scientist, now on his own. he's into everything from tesla to electric spacecraft.publishes a journal. phone 704 252 8083. check him out

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:27 - ID#339450)
JTF not KTF re previous post
same info re chas yost

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:28 - ID#427357)

Steve - Perth
(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:34 - ID#284177)
Steves specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

Miner's gift of gold comes up the chimney

INDONESIA - Groundswell starts growing into a political earthquake

Tokyo share crash echoes through local markets

Prices slide amid fears of Japanese credit crunch

Gloom merchants forget we have learned something ( we hope )

Korea precariously placed amid the Asian storm - The Maverick


Mid Level Officials lobbying for Chinese Devaluation!

The biggest financial meltdown we have seen in our lifetime

Change in sentiment puts shine into gold

US rejects IMF call for funding increase

In $US terms, base metals are in crisis

The penny starts to drop in the US

Anxious IMF seeks more cash

Bargain-hunters take chance on miners

NZ voters are wary of M.A.I. free-trade treaty

Red alert for Korea's banks - Korea is in DEEP TROUBLE NOW!

Too many eggs in an Asian basket case
No more Letters of Credit for Korean Manufacturers!!!!!!!!!!

ASIA'S NEXT CASUALTY? Bad banks could clobber China

Whistling past the graveyard in Asia

Billion-dollar buyouts lead attack on bankruptcy
Korean Shipbuilding Group had 20 times debt to equity!

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:36 - ID#339274)
FWIW we reaching buy points for abx 17 1/2 17 5/8 and XAU 70.7.happy trading

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:39 - ID#254269)
@ Rumplestiltskin your 10.16

Maybe this is a real stupid question but HOW do the Feds buy some blue chip high techs and give the Dow a boost ? Does the government just buy stock or do they have their "friends" at the big Wall St. firms do

it ? I am serious about this question; I just don't understand how it works .

To all others; thanks for your answers and patience with a newbiew.

especially enjoyed Arden's post last night re the Comex although I had

to read it half a dozen times to appreciate what he was saying and even though I'm not sure I got it all.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:51 - ID#256254)
Good catch vronsky
Date: Fri Dec 19 1997 10:28
vronsky ( RELEVANCE ) ID#427357:

I agree MicroSoft's action is a good indicator of a sea change.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:52 - ID#348397)
Buy the dips! Buy the dips! (Otherwise you'll sink our ships!)
CNBC geniuses starting to doubt brokerage house BUY recommendations.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 10:59 - ID#333232)
Various bits
Follow the yellow brick road:

Steve @ Perth - If you've not already got it, get "Little Creatures" - Talking Heads. "He looks so cute...In his little red suit."

Cyclist,TechTrader - How do you see March shaping up?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:04 - ID#31868)
News Flash from the Puppet Protection Team
In order to deal with overheating the CNBC Full Metal Puppets are now clothed in Nomex, a fire retardant material. The skeletal skin wrap is made from a newly introduced polymer known only as Pupptex, which has been specially designed in Europe under the guidance of the IMF and paid for from the coffers of the little known SDRFP fund. ( special drawing rights for puppets )

***No lemmings were harmed in the testing of these materials.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:05 - ID#25058)
Dow now: -223.23 ( -2.85% ) and falling without indications of intervention by the Plunge PT.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:07 - ID#426220)
After just one and half hours of trading the DOW now off 240 points to 7606. If Wall Street repeats Friday's TOKYO stock market acation ( -5.7% ) , we are talking a possible DOW drop today od 447 poinys to about 7400! KUDO & ACCOLADES to George S. Cole, who correctly called the August DOW top at 8300.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:09 - ID#25058)

-268.82 ( -3.43% )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:09 - ID#372262)
BUY JUNE 330 GOLD CALLS NOW @ $200/ea.
5 months to expiration and only 33 dollars out of the money! THIS IS A SCREAMING BUY! DOW NOW OFF 275 PTS and FALLING LIKE A IRAQ! PAPER WILL BE CRUSHED BY THE FLOOD TO METALS IN '98 IMHO!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:11 - ID#426220)

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:15 - ID#372262)

JOE! JOE! JOE BRATIPAGLIA! WHERE ARE YA JOE? TELL US ALL IS WELL WILL YA, JOE?! IS IT TIME TO BUY THE DIP YET, JOE? HEAR ME JOE! HELP ME JOE! Thanks Joe! Dow no off only 220! Whew! That was a close one! Warn us next time will ya, Joe!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:17 - ID#25058)
Talk about the devil - PPT just woke up!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:17 - ID#256254)
Brazil the gateway to Latin America
Brazil Bovespa Index ^BVSP 11:14AM 8920 -563 -5.93%

Remember once Brazil falls so goes latin America. A lot of people are going to have a tough weekend.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:21 - ID#22956)
Gold Rally.Schmold
So................where is it?? The DOW and other markets are taking a is the huuuuuuuuuuuuge gold rally??

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm........I'm it too early? ...or too late... the tug-o-war


You can use priority mail D.A. when the time comes...I don't mind......or perhaps you should use third class mail........more apropos?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:24 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton Crash Control Headquarters
Dow only down 1-9-4....Got me finger in the dike but am gettin sooooo tired~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:26 - ID#348397)

Spud Master
(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:29 - ID#273112)
Glad EB is not budging,
they need SOMEONE to go down with the ship ( grin ) .

Alan Greenspan: "EB, would you ah... just hold this wheel and stand here for a moment?" ( Alan struggles into a parachute and heads for the hatch )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:29 - ID#372262)
Debt doesn't matter! Thailand doesn't matter! Malaysia doesn't matter! Indonesia doesn't matter! Hong Kong doesn't matter! Korea doesn't matter! Japan doesn't matter! Russia doesn't matter! Brazil doesn't matter! China doesn't matter! Mexico doesn't matter! SH_ _! IT REALLY DOES MATTER!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:31 - ID#372235)
Is XAU testing its upward trend line?
Looking at the 60 minute XAU chart at Quote.Com, it looks as if the XAU is testing the trend line established by the lows of December 9th and December 17th. Maybe someone out there with a sophisticated charting program can verify this.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:32 - ID#372262)

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:34 - ID#228100)
Gold Prices
So many Error statements from Kitco. Maybe we should just stop paying for this service!!

News from Washington: Bill Clinton's teaching his new dog to roll over and play dead... just like he taught Janet Reno... Hes also teaching him to dig graves at Arlington.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:34 - ID#348397)

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:36 - ID#246224)
Anyone have Date & time of email posted from sharefin?

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:36 - ID#287367)
@ notbudging
Who can forget George C. Scott as Patton? "L'audace, toujours, l'audace!" Sold the ABX Jan 20 puts ( bought yesterday ) for 2 1/2 ( and a useful profit ) today and used the proceeds to buy ABX April 17 1/2 calls. ( I wanta ride this thing a little while )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:39 - ID#348129)
Even the Gold stocks are getting hamered with Gold up slightly.
At some point, Gold stocks will have to decouple from equities and go their own way ----- UP. : - )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:41 - ID#372344)
@ Very Interesting!!!!
I see the PPT is alive and knee deep into it. But seriously I find it
fascinating that with the DOW PLUNGE of almost 300 POINTS
Gold does NOTHING! Something else is going on and that can be followed as I suggested yesterday, by following the Currencies.
The YEN has been stuckall morning at around 128.90 and the MARK and S.F. are bearly up against the US$. IMHO Gold will move as the
US$ begins to decline against said currencies. It won't be long now.

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:44 - ID#24140)
Laissez les bons temps rouler
to All

Got SandP puts

RSA golds and Plats

Gods in his heaven

Alls right with the World

Hey anybody see Flash, bender, and roundheels ?? Have I gotta

flunk those those buggers for not answering my question ??

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:47 - ID#372262)
BONDS now below 5.87! Fed Funds rate at 5.50! HOW MUCH LOWER CAN WE GO BEFORE THE YIELD INVERTS? Alan, will you please LOWER THE FED FUNDS RATE? Alan? Alan? ALAN!!!!!!
Last quote on June 330 gold calls is bid 590, ask 600!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:49 - ID#22956)
330 Gold Calls @ JUNE??!?
And people wonder why MOST options expire Worthless. There IS a better strategy if you think gold is going your brokerage house and ask to speak to an options specialist, he can build you a good spread that might actually pay off....more than those June calls. It is December, remember. Get in the game NOW.

hmmmm.....out-of-the-money gold JUNE.....harhar. That's a good one. have tea with AG and Spuds


(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:50 - ID#372235)

At least Gold isn't tanking with the rest of the market ( yet ) . Currently up 50 cents.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:54 - ID#372344)
@ Tpher, Neither is the US$

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:55 - ID#22956)
June 330 gold calls @ 170 pts........$170.00
Don't be foolish. And don't post crap!

600pts, really?......what market are you looking at??!?? scratch my damned head


(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:58 - ID#256254)
Biased reporting.
You just have to love those talking heads. Dow down 168 pts and the make you feel like you have made money.

"Dow is up 100 points off of day's lows."

(Fri Dec 19 1997 11:59 - ID#372262)
WAS LOOKING AT THE WRONG COLUMN! 170 is even more of a screaming buy!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:01 - ID#285233)
Avalon - Based on few sources available to me, the FRB does not intervene in the markets directly by buying shares. It would be too costly, perhaps not financially feasible even for the mighty FRB. This illegal manipulation is done through the Globex futures market using an account with the "FIRM" where Rubin came from.
This is a lot cheaper and far more effective way. I invite you to inspect the plots of the DOW/SP500 and the futures on days such as today to see how this can be demonstrated. Today, the globex market futures began to recover strongly well before the market turned. This method proved to be extremely effective es[ecially during the July'95 drop.
The futures seem to have the ability to turn around, at least temporarily, the sentiment that is driving this spec. bubble to these extremes. Of course, this manipulation will make this disaster even more severe since it is circumventing the free market forces and will not work for too far longer.

Am I begining to feel the paper investors pain??? Actually, I do not give a s..t !!! I hope they get taught a severe lesson since they are the willing idiots in these ponzi scheme, the results of which will destroy their and OUR lives as we know it. Not one in a thousand understands what is about to engulf us.


(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:05 - ID#31868)
Get Camdesuss!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:12 - ID#270224)
In your anger you don't always pay attention. Where I recommend buying Barrick?

Here is my low cost no-brainer recommendation:

Prime Resources PRU on Toronto $170/ounce production cost. World's 5th largest silver producer trading near its book value and debt free with 20:1 PE ratio.

Okay smart ass give me a better precious metas stock!

New Kid on the Block
(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:16 - ID#389125)
Why All The Confusion?

Gold will stay down until the Bear lures the "last fool" into this

market... The longer he has to wait, the hungrier he gets!

I'm not even checking my AU stocks or funds anymore. The uproar

will be loud enough for me to hear when the beast strikes! Patience!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:23 - ID#78116)
DOW HEADING HIGHER!!!!! Gold Heading for the tank.... AGAIN
The dow clearly set a stake at 7600 and is heading higher, gold is floundering and can only go lower at this point. With interest rates tumbling, corporate earnings will get one more boost from lower debt costs.

A week ago I noted that the cbs had sold 1.5% of their holdings this year. I was asked for the source: Its that evil international debt conspiracy: The IMF who tracks such things.

Since 1992 when the cbs started getting serious about selling their gold reserves they have dumped about 7.5%, making 1997 a typical year for selling. At the current rate of selling the cb's have almost a 70 year supply.....

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:31 - ID#372344)
@ KO
I agree with you all the way. You sure knocked me out with your stats.
One very important factor which has not been mentioned recently
is "POLITICAL INSTABILITY" is some foreign countries, including
SA ( more recent Indonesia ) for which the MARKETS have Historically
discounted said mining shares accordingly. Some people in this group are extremely anti AMERICA's Miners for reasons that are based in part on self vested interests just as I am biased for North American Miners,
but I do believe that contributors to this discussion group would better
serve their cause by sticking to facts and intellect and NOT by temper tantrums and insults.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:33 - ID#31868)
If the CBs put all their gold up it would vanish. The IMF spends money it does not make or earn, It is an organization that gets newly printed money wherein the ink is not yet dry.

This is not money, it is a debt which is owed by the taxpayers of each country that contributes.

They are sucking the taxpayers dry, placing a debt upon them which can never be repaid so they can keep their criminal charade alive.

You little socialist you. Are you a Camdesuss wannabe or just one of his groupies.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:34 - ID#225283)

Excelent call on the manipulation using the Globex futures...looks like they will push it from down 269 to near 100 at the close...I find it hard to beleave that others have not spotted this "racket of manipulation".

If people do not think market manipulation takes place just wait until the NASDRiggedQ suit is settled before Dec 31st...evryone of the biggest firms on the street have been involved in that scam. I think the legal term is racketeering.

I hope that is not triple posting again today.
If so ...sorry.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:38 - ID#57232)
Allen ( USA ) : I posted sharefin's Barron's 12/29 bombshell around 23:30 last night. I am e-mailing him Kitco highlights until he is back on line.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:38 - ID#410114)
I japanese firms are going to start liquidating their held positions, I suspect that the postions held include a large gold short postion. All establishment firms are short so I expect any liquidations will iclude the buy back of all short postions and selling of long postions

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:42 - ID#410114)
Platexco in South Africa
John Disney

It is my opinion that that the major SA platinum houses must not let Platexco fall to any other firm. Do you agree?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:46 - ID#227238)
If gold again regains prominence in world monetary affairs, it might be prudent to look at the third world exposure of a company before taking a position. Given the increasing deterioration of monetary matters, those in less developed lands will not look favorably on 'outsiders' exploiting their 'national heritage'.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:48 - ID#225283)

I do not think that Gold Stocks will decouple from the rest of the market for a while...this will mean a even bigger buying op. for those of us in the know.

Soon the cat will be out of the bag ( RE: FUTURES MANIPULATION ) then the entire market will tank...including gold stocks...I hope to buy at our near book all the way down.

Thank you to all that posted their favorites.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:48 - ID#413224)
All: need ticker sym. and exchange for Anglo-American Platinum

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:50 - ID#225283)
Well I may have been wrong

LOOKS like they will push back to under 100 down.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:52 - ID#33180)
Make your Christmas phone calls before December 25
Goldbugs Plan Ahead. The FCC anticipates the US phone system may crash on Christmas day, along with the Internet. Nintendo has sold so many millions of copies of its new game that has to be played on the Internet, that the FCC expects the Christmas morning rush to try it out as soon as it is unwrapped could bring down major portions of the Net and the phone systems. This news came from a computer jock who attended a meeting a month and a half ago at which an FCC official expressed this concern. Since goldbugs tend to be folks who plan ahead for possible trouble, be forewarned and forearmed.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:54 - ID#57232)
Sorry - that was a Forbes e-mail bombshell from sharefin.
Late night last night.

All: I am at a loss to decide whether deflation from SE Asia or inflation from the dollar will hit us first. Did you see that cry0 dropped more than one dollar? Perhaps AG can't turn on the electronic printing presses fast enough. Hard to believe, though.

D.A. Any opinions about being long commodities at this time?

As to a possible pending market crash, I will hang on to my gold stock investments ( 15% of cash ) - even if the Tsunami hits. May gradually buy some more gold stocks if the market turns into a Bear.

I think this time gold stocks will recover much more quickly than in 1987. More like 1929. There is a sea change occurring, and the world will eventually go back to a gold-backed currency. Best proof of this is the 9 tonnes of gold that the Japanese bought in the last 12 months. Don't forget those gold traders that got arrested somewhere in SE Asia for exporting gold to buy US dollars.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 12:54 - ID#288157)
The Meltdown is echo, Echo, ECHO: the market they may be able to manipulate...
but the derivatives are a looming black hole folks. Echo is new,
in existence circa 1995. "Answer" to Herstatt problem. Here is your
financial meltdown:
The Allsopp Report ( commissioned by BIS in 95, issued Mar 96 ) found that foreign exchange settlement is not just an intraday phenomenon and that payment lags can initially last at least one to two business days; another one to two business days may then elapse before a bank is assured that it has received the requisite payments. The amount at risk at a bank could exceed three days' worth of trades, so that the exposure to even a single counterparty could exceed a bank's capital. While the risk is only beginning to be recognized and quantified, recent foreign exchange payment defaults, including those of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International ( BCCI ) and Barings Plc, demonstrate that the risk cannot be ignored.

The liquidity risk. The second risk has to do with the possibility a counterparty will default because of an operational or systems problem that leaves it with insufficient liquidity to make payment. In most cases, operational failures can be resolved within 24 to 48 hours, and overnight funding can be obtained to cover a failed delivery of currency. It is not uncommon, however, to have more than $2 billion outstanding between banks overnight. A large operational failure could surpass the ability of even some of the best-capitalized institutions to
access money markets, especially when notice of the failure is received during off-hours in the institution's domestic market or when the undelivered currency is not one in which the exposed institution customarily borrows. This is an especially important issue in emerging markets, where the physical infrastructure for payment and settlement may not be adequate to accommodate transactions that are increasing in size and number.

Impact on financial markets. A counterparty that defaults because of either an insolvency or a liquidity problem could trigger a systemic problem. The most commonly articulated scenario is one in which the failure of one large bank causes a second bank to fail, in turn causing a third bank to fail, and so on--a "domino effect." Another situation might arise in which a small number of institutions independently fail to deliver, causing other institutions to fail or to encounter liquidity problems.

These scenarios are more likely to occur when institutions are highly interdependent. Using actual gross settlement numbers from a day in 1994 when the yen appreciated against the dollar by 5 percent, Multinet, a multilateral foreign exchange netting facility under development, showed that the failure of the participant with the larges position within its system could have caused a number of other participants to fail.

What is certain is that the efficiency of payments systems in these markets will not quickly reach the standards of the major centres. In addition it will be some time before their banks attain the skill base to ensure the minimisation of settlement risk exposures consistent with achieving G10 targets. Credit limits pose an inevitable problem that we will all have to live with for some time and the use of netting as a credit enhancement technique will become essential to credit departments. It is in this area that groups like ECHO face the biggest challenges. The ability to net payments in "exotic" currencies and reduce systemic risk
in their banking systems is essential to the development of financial markets and the success of their economies on which their future welfare depends. It may be some time before netting arrangements can cope with all emerging markets but I understand that ECHO are already involved in detailed discussions with a number of regulators and are positive about the outcome.


John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:03 - ID#24140)
I just cant stay mad at you KO.
For KO.

Ok tough guy, you picked a really good US stock - Franco Nevada is also

just as good. I like Prime a lot too.

I repeat I mentioned Barrick and asked you a question. You cant answer


So we'll change the quiz question. The mining jounal gives the following

costs for Prime,Barrick, and ASA. - 173, 191 , and 269.

The eps for the 3 companies are -0.28 for abx,$0.31 for prime, $0.99

for ASA. ASA also paid $1.2 div vs .06 for Prime , amd .08 for


Why does ASA have so high an eps with such high costs??

Why do you say RSA stocks have lots of debt - Did you say that ??

Because they dont.

Im not really mad at you, KO just bored, and annoyed by your


(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:03 - ID#194311)
Sick chickens coming home to roost
Asian financial flu gives California a chill

LOS ANGELES, Dec 18 ( AFP ) - California, with its concentration
of high-technology industries, stands to suffer the most in the
United States from the Asian financial crisis, analysts say.
California's economy had been humming along when the Asian
market turmoil began to take its toll on US jobs and exports. As
many as 65,000 nonfarm jobs are expected to be lost next year as
electronic equipment and computer exports slip.
"The current crisis in Asia will not be painless for
California," said Tom Lieser, a University of California at Los
Angeles professor whose forecast on the Pacific Rim effect on
California was released Wednesday.
Asia's economic unraveling and weakened buying power coupled
with a strong dollar will hurt California's economy, Lieser said in
his report entitled "Cracks in the Pacific Rim Will Cause Leaks in
It will still be some time before California feels the full
brunt of the economic storm, but warning signs are already becoming
apparent as business orders fall and some South Korean exporters say
they have not been paid.
"This is like a foot on the brake of the California economy,"
said Kyser of the Asian effect, but he added that the state's
economy was diversified enough to weather the financial squall.

South Korean financial crisis roils California's Korean community

LOS ANGELES, Dec 18 ( AFP ) - The Christmas carols that usually
echo across Koreatown during the holiday season are conspicuously
absent this year amid concern over the impact of Seoul's financial
"People are just so demoralized," said Gilbert Ghil, 43, owner
of the Dae Ruk Koreatown department store that is now empty of
Korean tourists who used to pour in for holiday shopping. "It's
completely stopped."
"This is worse than the earthquakes and the riots," he said of
1992 riots during which Korean businesses were targeted for burnings
and vandalism. "Then, at least after a few months customers came
No one knows how long this economic drought will last.
An estimated 750,000 Koreans live in Los Angeles County, about
80 percent of whom are immigrants. Many are now engaging in a "buy
Korean" campaign to help businesses here and at home.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:05 - ID#194311)
Dollar vs step outlaw dollars, simple.
Government urges Thais to cash in dollars

BANGKOK, Dec 19 ( AFP ) - The government urged Thais who have
hoarded dollars to exchange them for baht in a desperate bid to
increase domestic liquidity, a top official told reporters Friday.
"Anyone who has dollars and has no plans to use them in the near
future should exchange them for baht at the existing exchange rate,"
government house spokesman Akapol Sorasuchart said.
But he stressed the government was not trying to deal with the
country's economic crisis -- which has seen the Thai currency plunge
by 40 percent against the greenback -- by asking for handouts from
the Thai people.
Akapol said the government was planning a campaign to persuade
Thais returning from overseas visits to exchange all their remaining
foreign currency into baht at the airport, no matter how small the
Meanwhile, prime minister's office minister Abhisit Vejjajiva
said the government would speed up the implementation of policies
aimed at cracking down on currency speculators.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:08 - ID#333232)
PCC (Politically Correct Christmas)
While the PPT does it's job...enjoy

Twas the night before Christmas and Santa's a wreck...
How to live in a world that's politically correct?
His workers no longer would answer to "Elves",
"Vertically Challenged" they were calling themselves.
And labor conditions at the north pole
Were alleged by the union to stifle the soul.
Four reindeer had vanished, without much propriety,
Released to the wilds by the Humane Society.
And equal employment had made it quite clear
That Santa had better not use just reindeer.
So Dancer and Donner, Comet and Cupid,
Were replaced with 4 pigs, and you know that looked stupid!
The runners had been removed from his sleigh;
The ruts were termed dangerous by the E.P.A.
And people had started to call for the cops
When they heard sled noises on their roof-tops.
Second-hand smoke from his pipe had his workers quite frightened.
His fur trimmed red suit was called "Unenlightened."
And to show you the strangeness of life's ebbs and flows:
Rudolf was suing over unauthorized use of his nose
And had gone on Geraldo, in front of the nation,
Demanding millions in over-due compensation.
So, half of the reindeer were gone; and his wife,
Who suddenly said she'd enough of this life,
Joined a self-help group, packed, and left in a whiz,
Demanding from now on her title was Ms.
And as for the gifts, why, he'd ne'er had a notion
That making a choice could cause so much commotion.
Nothing of leather, nothing of fur,
Which meant nothing for him. And nothing for her.
Nothing that might be construed to pollute.
Nothing to aim. Nothing to shoot.
Nothing that clamored or made lots of noise.
Nothing for just girls. Or just for the boys.
Nothing that claimed to be gender specific.
Nothing that's warlike or non-pacific.
No candy or sweets...they were bad for the tooth.
Nothing that seemed to embellish a truth.
And fairy tales, while not yet forbidden,
Were like Ken and Barbie, better off hidden.
For they raised the hackles of those psychological
Who claimed the only good gift was one ecological.
No baseball, no football...someone could get hurt;
Besides, playing sports exposed kids to dirt.
Dolls were said to be sexist, and should be passe;
And Nintendo would rot your entire brain away.
So Santa just stood there, disheveled, perplexed;
He just could not figure out what to do next.
He tried to be merry, tried to be gay,
But you've got to be careful with that word today.
His sack was quite empty, limp to the ground;
Nothing fully acceptable was to be found.
Something special was needed, a gift that he might
Give to all without angering the left or the right.
A gift that would satisfy, with no indecision,
Each group of people, every religion;
Every ethnicity, every hue,
Everyone, everywhere...even you.
So here is that gift, it's price beyond worth...
"May you and your loved ones enjoy peace on this earth."

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:15 - ID#234311)

This is the kind of disaster that we Y2K programmers have been trying to warn the world about since 1990. The flow of information depends so heavily upon these flows of electrons, and yet we programmers, yeah, that's us, down here in the electronic plumbing with the sweaty overalls and the greasy wrenches, cannot get the powers-that-be to pay any attention. Once the flow is cut off, and the pipes start backing up, there will be a lot of smelly stuff backing out of the government's financial toilets. "Flush it again, maybe the problem will go away..." We are Roto-Rooter, and we are being told to sit on our hands.

Don't light any matches in the high-methane restrooms...

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:15 - ID#24140)
Brush up your Shakespeare
Boy zadeek you really got a way with words. I WISH Id said

that - wow "vested self interest" - I just LOVE it. You are ONE

BIG cliche. ( like they say in outer space "Deja Vu all over again"

oboyoboy )

For Rob - Re Platexco. I just dont know anything about what they

are doing. Are they exploring in RSA or Zimbabwe??

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:15 - ID#255284)
Earl. If?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:19 - ID#194311)
DOW bear breaks 7700 bars and out of the cage
paper suckers

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:20 - ID#254269)
Really stupid question

Thanks, Steady and Private Investor for your comments and answers to my stupid question. I understand the macro argument of what you are
both saying.
Now for my really stupid question ? It is obviously illegal manipulation of
the markets; so where are the regulators and why do they allow it to do on ?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:21 - ID#57232)
SDRer: Your Echo post is chilling. This is I think the essence of a "derivatives" meltdown - if enough financial disparities occur within the system to overload the "reserves" or whatever they are called, then a financial/banking domino scenario can occur, like the day that a squirrel knockout of a single transformer in Niagara Falls eventually caused the great New York power blackout. I think the squirrel ( sp? ) was the only fatality. I wonder how many dollars/oz that squirrel cost.

A seemlingly trivial event can be the last straw, and it may be completely unexpected. Now that another solar cycle has begun, an electronic disruption of the markets due to a solar flare is also possible.

I don't have a clue regarding whether anyone is trying to reduce world-wide derivatives activity -- to reduce risk. I doubt it!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:23 - ID#225283)

Looks like the Market is waking up...down over 150...

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:25 - ID#320441)
Excellent metaphor. As a professional "electron plumber" and college instructor, I often feel alone in my circles as one who sees at least the potential for serious disaster in Y2K. The Titanic comes to mind. It would be one thing to negotiate the treacherous shoals of that little acccounting challenge while in the midst of worldwide prosperity and stability. It will be another thing entirely if the world economy is increasingly crippled over the next 700 or so days. I ask you - where are the Korean, Japanese, Malaysian, Indonesian, and Thai banks going to find the unallocated funds to repair this problem?

As I tell my students, civilization as we know it will come to an end on 1/1/00. What it will be after that is anyone's guess.

It may be that gold will be very valuable, or worthless. Ditto for gold and PM stocks. I predict big numbers for gold.

Let's face it, in those countries whose currencies have plummeted, gold has soared in price as much as ( I believe ) 40% relative to the local currency.

Gold can be viewed as just another currency, valued in terms of the others. As those currencies fall, it will appear more valuable. As has been oft discussed in this forum, its purchasing power is another issue.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:27 - ID#318100)
Old news or news flash?

A number of French banks, including Credit Lyonaise sued by a group in NY court fro return of substantial amounts of Nazi gold. Barclays Bank in UK also named in suit, per Bloomberg FN.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:28 - ID#194311) oxymoron
reducing derivative activity to reduce risk...chuckle
derivatives reduce risk, right, don't they?
Who knows anymore...maybe derivatives are not the solution to reducing the risk but actually amplify the risk...or worse yet just bottle it up into one area until systemic failure occurs. This is one thing derivatives can't hedge against because they are in the system, duh, figure that one out PhD Economics...the dismal science.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:40 - ID#333131)
ABX weekend trade?
Looks like the options writing crowd is going to try to close ABX at the 17.5 strike ( US ) . Might make a good buy-on-close weekend trade.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:46 - ID#341214)
Y2KBug, NightWriter, All
Y2KBug, NightWriter, All: The way I see Y2K unfolding is with a 1 - 2 punch. The first punch will be the distressed earnings that companies will start revealing next year due to the costs of fixing the thing in their own systems. Their earnings will also be impacted due to lower income because other companies are diverting resources to fix Y2K. When this starts coming out it will send the stock market down from where ever it happens to be. The second punch will be when people start loosing their job due to Y2K problems. "Sorry, the computer is not up so there is no need for you to come in today. Or tomorrow. Or next week. Hopefully everything will be under control next month. Or next year."


(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:48 - ID#417317)
Veneroso Discussion

Frank Veneroso was featured in a CANARC sponsored conference call and delivered a very interesting essay on the recent behavior of gold, his take on the CB selling, and the likely future direction of gold pricing. This is too good and well thought out to try to summarize here. I think you will find a lot to agree with in this discussion. It is too long to repost here, but the link can be found in post 4381 on the "Gold Mine of Information" chat site on SI, dated 12-19 at 9:59 AM. Perhaps you would be interested in including this as another one of your fine essays on your Gold-Eagle site.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:48 - ID#227238)
Aurator: Hedging!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:50 - ID#57232)
Kiwi -- I enjoyed your post
As I recall, many investors were given the opportunity to buy portfolio "insurance" prior to the 1987 crash -- using derivatives. Unfortunately the "risk reduction" did not work as planned, because the system crashed, and the derivative-based portfolio insurance scheme folded. Our current upgraded system is supposed to be much more robust than the one in 1987. Now how much of the OTC foreign derivatives trading is really on a modern system?

No matter how sophisticated you make the system, you will eventually reach its limits if the volume keeps growing. And -- if the OTC derivatives business is doubling every two years, it does not take a Phd Electrical or Systems Engineer to figure out that a saturation point may be reached before anyone is aware that it happened. A sudden surge of some kind, and its all over!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:54 - ID#255284)

Goldbug23. Yup.
Earl. That's one Political Party I could join,.. The Indecisive Party. Well, maybe.

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 13:55 - ID#24140)
To all

A "Certain Someone" made a comment to the effect that

the NA mines are so much more expensive than the

SA mines because SA is "politically unstable".

This is wrong.

SA only produces about 40% of the worlds gold and some

25 odd years of past production lies above ground. No

big concern over RSA somehow becoming overun by PUs

( politically unstables ) and in some crazy way closing

down their own mines in a fit of mad frenzy.

But lets say ok and humour this nutcase argument-

and the possibilty of PUs or cannibals or aliens is

higher here than in say Florida. Then why is Platinum

so cheap ??? fellows - RSA produces 75% of the worlds

plats and there is almost none above ground and the rest

comes from russia. IF PUs come along and cut our heads

off then all the worlds plats is gone ( not to mention

our heads ) - why is it not being stockpiled ??

Answer - because the argument is hogwash. The less

said about it the better.

The REAL reason for NA mines being overpriced is that

Americans are grossly misinformed. They seem to like it

that way. Okay by me. Go back to watching Oprah

,reading the Marine Handbook, and wallowing in conventional


(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:01 - ID#255284)
Crusty, are you coming to join me in Siberian exile? Salty

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:05 - ID#24140)
Calming words of Wisdom from The Eastern Mediterranean

Never do Business with an Armenian

Never Marry a Hungarian

Never Have a Ship on the Black Sea

Never buy land in Turkey

Lebanese Proverb

Salty - Where do I sign up for the Indecisive Party

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:09 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton
Aurator + EB......HI!~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:11 - ID#246224)
I'm quite pleased ...
... with the week's performance of gold and silver. Here are my reasons;

1 ) both metals have made stepped increases with enough retracement and testing of lows to say that there is some decent conviction at the current levels.

2 ) Silver has broken up into a new range above 6.00, London market closing at $6.04 today. This was mentioned as a significant move a day or so ago and so an indication of higher prices to come.

3 ) Gold has moved its range up from 283-6 to 287 and above. I particularly like it when a low is greater than a prior high, don't you?

4 ) Silver has also put in a low that was higher the the previous high of the prior day. ( I'd better recheck that, but it feels right from my recollection. )

5 ) Comex eligible stocks are dwindling nicely. Particularly the **25%** reduction in eligible gold stocks *IN ONE DAY* ( yesterday ) . Now that's drama folks! No way to hide that number, eh? Silver is also dropping steadily with nice chunks and the occational big bite. Hope this is reflective of other markets conditions, etc.

6 ) A few positive statements from Europe on gold's role in the new Euro CB, the disclaimer of sales from Germany and Switzerland ( sp? ) . Japan, Hong Kong and Korea buying ( gold up strongly on those markets as their respective share markets were falling - to me a sign that at least there they are starting to behave in a more typical fashion, turning to PM's rather than US$ T-Bills, etc ) .

7 ) The inability of shares markets to make new highs since August and the capitulation of one of the loudest BULL voices saying this is indeed a BEAR market.

8 ) The untenable, unsustainable printing of money by BOJ ( 25% in 4 weeks ) and FRB ( 10.5% annualized increase in past 10 week period M3 ) .

9 ) The unwillingness of US and German political establishments to float the IMF any more money ( credit ) .

10 ) The election of a Labor Party candidate in Korea. A sure sign that Korea will botch any opportunities it might have had to stabilize its financial situation. ( ***see below for apology to Labor types along with equal provocation of Capital types.Can't leave anyone out!- )

*** I do not believe either Labor or Capital oriented political parties are capable of touching the financial realm without causing a withering, just in different ways. Labor tends to have an antagonistic relationship with the world of finance and so, IMO, tends to throw 'body blocks' at financial problems when they threaten their constituency. This tends to be obtuse and causes an overreaction by capital ( pulls investment ) , etc. Capital oriented parties tend, IMO, to coddle the financial system which in the long run leads to where we are today - corruption, abuse, bubble-mania, easy money based on greedy expectations, etc. Labor tends to stifle economic processes. Capital tends to develop unsustainable and inhumane economic environments. IMHO when Capital has developed such an environment then Labor will destroy it, not because Labor is destructive by nature but because that economic environment itself is fragile and any challenge to its continuation would inevitablly cause it to fail.

As always you may shoot me and throw me out the window ( AAYMSMATMOTW ) .

Did I get my first wish??? ( S&P tanking? )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:15 - ID#364147)
@ Bein dragged by ear-lobe ta cut down a Christmas Tree
Bah Humbug~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~go gold.....

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:15 - ID#260194)
Gusto "Veneroso"

I can't pick up the "gold mine of information" at the SI site.
Could you give an URL?


(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:15 - ID#255284)
ancient wisdom

"A face shaped by lotus petals, a voice as cool as sandalwood, a heart like a scimitar, excessive humility; these are the signs of a rogue."

Sanskrit proverb.

Ted, G'day mate.

Crusty, I'm not sure

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:21 - ID#255284)
-------just that dogs p!ss more on trees
Ted Don't do it! trees are people too.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:29 - ID#246224)
@Gusto (Gustow, Guestew, Guztou, etc)
Its vronsk*y* not vronski.

SI is Silicon Investor? Is the area you are refering to available w/o registration? I couldn't find it. Could you do a synopsis for those of us who can't access this? Thanks.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:32 - ID#246224)
Ted @ just doin yer part
Think of it as your small contribution to the better-ment of the forest ( if yer cuttin down a balsam fir, that is ) ! Yer making room for a nice white pine, oak or ash. Have fun!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:35 - ID#417317)
Its Vronsky...Vronsky!!!
My humble apologies Mr. Vronsky for misspelling your name in my previous post. I've read enough of your posts and the content of your excellent web site to know better. Perhaps I should have addressed you as Mr. Gold-Eagle.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:40 - ID#432148)
Allen, try this for SI - some threads great

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:43 - ID#42371)
Gold Price
I can't get onto Kitco site. Where's another site for spot gold. I need my gastric acids stimulated. thanks

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:43 - ID#238295)
Veneroso speech
Mr. Veneros's MOST INFORMATIVE speech can be found at:

He is cautious short-term, but VERY BULLISH long-term.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:44 - ID#352177)
Here is an attempt at copy and paste. Hope it comes out right.

To: Karl Zetmeir ( 4442 )
From: Jay Bilotta
Friday, Dec 19 1997 6:56AM EST
Reply # of 4492

Karl, Thanks very much for the "Veneroso" conference call. Very insightful. So insightful, in fact, that I'm
taking the liberty of attempting to post it to SI so as to allow others the opportunity to read it. This will also
save you the effort of continuously e-mailing it.

I have broken the article up into 3 parts ( Opening Remarks, Veneroso, Q&A ) - here is Part I:

DECEMBER 9, 1997


RC: All right, ladies and gentlemen, it is 1:15 on the West Coast of Canada and we would like to thank you
for participating in this conference call with Mr. Veneroso and Bradford Cooke. We would like to bring on
Mr. Cooke first of all and he will give a few statements and then introduce Mr. Veneroso. The first 20 to 25
minutes will be, of course, Mr. Veneroso and
Mr. Cooke. Thereafter you are very welcome to pose any questions so - Mr. Cooke please.

BC: All right, well, I guess I'd like to welcome everybody first of all to the Canarc conference call, I think it's
very timely that we have Frank Veneroso available to speak on the current turmoil in the gold markets. Before
we get into that I just wanted to have a few introductory comments, some housekeeping first: Because we're
on a conference call that's
actually international, I would ask that everybody either put their mute button on or refrain from talking
because we can all hear eachother. I guess that's the only housekeeping item really. I am the President of
Canarc for those of you who don't know me and because of the recent action in the gold markets which
impacts companies like ours, we felt it was
appropriate to hear some original comments and research from a specialist in the gold market.

I'd like to start by just saying a couple of words about Canarc's own views on the current gold market, how it
impacts our Company. Basically we felt in management that there is a number of harsh new realities, not only
post Bre-X but with the current price of gold and some of those realities basically are that cash and cash flow
have become more important than ever. Canarc's fortunate to be a small but profitable gold producer in South

I think the second harsh new reality is that market financings for junior companies have all but vanished at this
time and so joint ventures with major mining companies are basically back with a bang as you can see. In the
last four months Canarc's been very busy on the joint venture front.

I think the last new reality post Bre-X and post low gold prices is a strong trend to quality over quantity. That
is that the huge low grade capital intensive projects will tend to get back-burnered in this current gold
environment in favour of smaller higher grade, and presumable higher quality, gold projects. Canarc, of
course, has always believed that our main asset at Polaris being a high grade underground mine, should
survive any downturn in the gold price cycle.

Last, but not least, I guess I'd like to say something about management strategy. We have been busy in the
last few months negotiating joint ventures so that we can continue drilling abroad without spending our own
money, but we feel fairly strongly that this is a good time to be shopping for hard assets, especially gold
assets in the belief that, if we're not at bottom, we must be getting close to a bottom in the gold price cycle and
that hard assets right now can literally be purchased just for pennies on the dollar. Canarc has been very busy
on joint ventures with major companies. We're also very active at reviewing acquisitions and while we
haven't had any deals to announce yet, we do obviously expect to say something about our acquisitions in the
New Year.

I think that's all I'm going to say and without further ado, I'd like to introduce our main speaker for today's
conference call, Frank Veneroso, who is a noted financial strategist in the global markets and a specialist in
gold. He has followed gold as a commodity for many years. Frank also does sell a proprietary research in the
gold markets on a weekly and monthly gold service and his first annual gold book is due out in January of
1998. I think, Frank, that without further ado, I'd like you to take the floor and run with it. Frank Veneroso.

To: Karl Zetmeir ( 4442 )
From: Jay Bilotta
Friday, Dec 19 1997 7:01AM EST
Reply # of 4492


FV: Thank you Brad. Well, it's quite a day to have a conference on this subject with gold having made a new
low below the 1985 low. I know everyone wants to know why it's happened and where we're going in the
short run. I must say that our perspective is a fairly long one. It's a very commodity oriented perspective and
we have tried to elaborate the framework that we use and the views that we have and the forecast that we make
in an extensive document that we're putting out in January. It's called the Gold Book Annual. It will be
coming out every year. It's a long thing, it's about 250 pages and it has a great deal of analytical detail that
supports the type of commodity framework for the gold market that we have. Now, in this framework lies a
very bullish long term scenario. The short term situation is much less clear because it's been a flow of central
bank gold that has been depressing the gold market and it is rather difficult to assess how that flow will go
over the short run.

First, I'm going to give you a little bit of the framework so you understand what's going on. Then I'm going
to talk about the short run, then I'm going to run back to that framework and draw some implications for the
longer run.

First, the gold market. The gold market has about four to five thousand tonnes of demand and it has about
3,000 tonnes of mine and scrap supply and the difference is the flow of central bank gold. Some of that central
bank gold flow is due to outright sales and some is due to gold
borrowings. Gold is borrowed by producers that hedge, by fabricators to finance inventories and by various
kinds of speculators, the so-called shorts of the market. Both of these factors, outright sales and borrowings
have been very important in this year.

We believe that the official data on the gold market is very much in error. We look at the World Gold Council
which provides an alternative survey of demand to this official data on the gold market and we come up with a
demand level of about 600 tonnes above what is generally accepted. We have done considerable work on the
flow of borrowed gold and we think that this flow has been about 500-700 tonnes higher than what is
generally accepted. Both of these findings support the other. We feel very very confident about our research
on gold borrowings.

If we take this structure, we think that the gold market had a flow of official gold at $385 in prior years of in
excess of 1,000 tonnes. We know how much the gold price will go down if you increase the supply. We
understand the price elasticity of demand and from that we can draw certain conclusions about what the flow
of central bank gold is at various price levels on the way down. It is our judgment that this year we probably
have a flow of central bank gold that lies somewhere between 1,500 and 2,000 tonnes. Probably more than
half of it is outright sales. Obviously with the price lower in the 2nd half of the year than the 1st half of the
year, the flow has been more intense in the last 6 months, in particular in the last 3 months.

Okay, who were the sellers? What has caused the big break? Probably there is one major European Central
Bank that has been the impetus behind this bear market. The dealers in the gold market have been telling all
manner of participants in the market, be they speculators, producers or smaller central banks, that there would
be a great deal of European Monetary Union related central bank selling this year, so this impetus, this
European Central Bank selling, has created an accelerator in the form of a lot of other transactors - hedge
funds, producers and smaller central banks - who are selling along with, or in front of, this well advertised
central bank
selling. Our guess is that the central bank selling out of Europe is not coming from the G-7 central banks, but
from the smaller central banks. Most likely it is the Dutch or the Belgians. We believe that, in the 1st half of
the year, there were a couple of hundred tonnes of unrecorded central bank sales, probably Dutch in origin.
We think that around May there was an agreement by the European Central Banks to cease selling. A statement
to this effect was made by the 3rd ranking man in the Banque de France, a man by the name of Jean Pierre
Patat, at the June FT gold conference, when gold was around $345. I want to read to you some of what he
said because I think it's important in interpreting what's going on now. He said that the European Central
Banks will not sell a major portion of their gold reserves and that allegations to that effect are "devoid of all
substance". He also said that several central banks in Europe which had sold gold from their reserves now feel
there is no longer an advantage on selling more bullion. "The reasoning now was that any advantage was
outweighed by the loss on the remaining reserves from reducing the gold price." So here's the Banque de
France, this past June, telling you that these two central banks, Belgium and the Netherlands, that had sold in
the past, have decided, have agreed, to stop selling because the loss of the value of the reserves that are held
outweighs any gain to be had by selling the gold and putting the proceeds into interest bearing securities.

It is our opinion that sometime after June, one or several European Central Banks broke rank with this
consensus, failed to live up to this agreement, and began to sell again. Now, what would their motivation be?
There are two possible motivations. The one you most frequently hear about is that they want to sell gold in
order to raise cash to improve their fiscal and debt ratios in order to get closer to the criteria that are needed to
gain acceptance into EMU. But there's another motivation. When the European Central Bank is created, very
little of the reserves of the System of European Central Banks will go into the European Central Bank. The
European Central Bank will be a central type of entity like the Fed Board of Governors in Washington. Then
you'll have a system of country central banks, which are the central banks that now exist, very much like the
regional fed banks in the United States. In the European case, however,
these country central banks will hold most of the system's reserves. Only about 15% of the reserves will be
allocated to the ECB; most will reside at the country central bank level and the fiscal implications of their
reserve composition, whether they earn interest or not, will be borne by the individual countries. However,
once the ECB is created, the individual country central banks will lose autonomy over their reserves. The
management of those reserves will be done by the European Central Bank itself and that European Central
Bank will be dominated by the French and Germans. All central banks like the Dutch and the Belgians will
have the management of their reserves largely dictated by the French, the Germans and the Italians.

Now the French have been very pro-gold, they have made several pro-gold statements about the role of gold
as a reserve asset in the forthcoming European Central Bank. The Germans have also taken a pro-gold
position in a dispute with the United States over whether the IMF should sell gold.
Also this year when Finance Minister Wiegal tried to revalue the Bundesbank gold, it created enough of a
public furor that there were repeated assurances that the German government would not sell any gold. Both the
German and the French people had a certain affinity for gold, unlike the
populations of the Netherlands and Belgium. So we believe that, with this on the horizon, some of the central
banks, most likely the Netherlands, possibly Belgium, possibly one other, have been trying to sell as much of
their gold as they can and put it into interest bearing assets before the European Central Bank is created, at
which point they may no longer be allowed to do so by the French and the Germans who will dominate the
ECB. Now, this is not just pure speculation on my part. Some noted economist friends of mine, like David
Hale at Kemper Zurich, have talked to these central bankers and in general the attitude seems to be that in the
immediate run up to EMU and in the 1st year or so after the ECB is created, the French and the Germans will
not want the boat rocked with any major changes in reserve management. If someone in the system of
European Central Banks is going to want to sell gold and turn it into an interest bearing portfolio position, they
will have to do it before reserve management is passed to the French and Germans, who will dominate reserve
management in the European Central Bank.

OK, what then would be the time table? When would they want to get that gold sold by? Well, the European
Central Bank will not begin formally until the end of 1998 but the decision about the exchange rates that will
be used for converting the European currencies into the Euro is to be made at the end of April or the beginning
of May. It is the opinion of some analysts of the European scene that an effort will be made to freeze central
bank reserve positions at that time. Also, it is the opinion of some that once these exchange rates are set there
will be a testing period between the establishment of these exchange rates in the beginning of May and the
conversion to the Euro late in the year. The European Central Banks will want no shocks that would create any
pressures on those exchange rates. One might construe an announcement of a very large gold sale by a
European Central Bank as having shock potential.

So, there is a chance that one or several European Central Banks that are trying to sell as much gold as they
can prior to the setting of these exchange rates. Whether that is the end of this year or April of next year, we're
not sure, but we do think that one or more European Central
Banks are running up against some kind of a time table, trying to dispose as much of their gold as they can.
This whole threat of European Central Bank sales has been so well advertised that it has brought a lot of other
sellers into the market. We've seen Australia, we've seen Argentina, and we believe that there are several
others. Brazil is a candidate; the IMF data suggests that they've been drawing their gold reserves down. We
think there may be one or two others, several smaller central banks that have been panicked by this prospect
and are selling their gold. We don't know exactly who the sellers are, exactly their motivations, exactly the
timing, but we do believe the impetus is European, the sale is very very large, it has created its own
momentum in the form of other smaller central banks selling, producers hedging and hedge funds going short,
but we believe there is some time limit on this big impetus. That doesn't mean that, when these European
Central Banks, or this one European Central Bank, is done, that there will be no more central banks selling,
but the odds are that there will be less central bank selling.

I really would not be at all surprised if we wake up one morning to find out that the Dutch announced that
they'd sold 700 tonnes or most of the gold that they had at the beginning of this year. This kind of thing is
very unlikely to be repeated. Like I say, when it comes to the big
European Central Banks I do not believe that they have been the sellers. I believe that the pro-gold positions of
the Germans and the French will make any gold sales out of the European Central Banks minimal or
non-existent at least for the 1st year or 2 of the European Central Bank. Now, how great could the selling of
the smaller central banks be? I don't think it could
really be that great because if you look at the number of central banks outside of Europe and the United States
and Japan that have hundreds of tonnes of gold, there really aren't very many. And some of those central
banks are actually adding to their positions. Russia, for example is one
of the nine central banks that has more than 5 million oz. of gold and the Russians actually have been adding
to their gold position and continue to do so. The same seems to be true of China. So, I think there could be
quite a few smaller central banks that could be selling quantities on the order of tens of tonnes, maybe 100-200
tonnes, but it does not seem likely to me that in total this would generate net central bank selling on anything
like the volume we've had this year.

In sum, the big impetus probably has been a big European sale, it is probably a sale being done against a
timetable. That timetable probably ends either the end of this year or the end of April, possibly the end of
1998, but I doubt it. And so I think that we will see in 1998 a recovery in the gold price. Now, how much of a
recovery will depend upon how much of a role hedge fund and computer fund short sales have had in this
year's bear market. There's a great deal of dispute about this. My guess is that it's been pretty big, though I
don't think that it's been the principle pressure on this market over the last couple of months. The pace of any
gold price recovery also will depend upon the behaviour of producers. My guess is that because of the shock
of this year, because of the new fears of central bank selling, we will see a considerable amount of producer
hedging of any rally in 1998. So I would expect that there will be constraints on any rally that develops.
Nonetheless I think that once you eliminate this big central bank sale which has been the impetus behind this
bear market , the market will go up and there is an outside chance that the short position in the market is so
large that you could get a violent rally. I don't exclude it.

I must say that I'm a little shocked and surprised by the amount of central bank selling that's been going on.
I've worked with central banks as an advisor from 1971 to 1989. Central banks tend to be very gradualist.
They tend to be very cautious. They tend to work in a cooperative way. The type of selling that we have seen
in the last 3 months has been none of that. Think about it. The Italians have 2500 tonnes of gold. They have it
on their books at $364 an oz.. The French have 3100 tonnes of gold and they have it on their books at $340 an
oz. Marking to market these reserve assets does influence their debt ratio going into EMU. Patat of the French
Central Bank made it very clear that the loss on the remaining reserves from reducing the gold price far
outweighs any gain to be had from the interest earned from selling the gold, so the French and Italians must be
very displeased with what is happening to the gold price. To have other central banks, particularly European
Central Banks, savage the market to this degree, is really extraordinary; it represents the kind of uncooperative
behaviour on the part of some central banks within the central banking community that I just find no precedent
for. So we are a little uncertain about making a forecast for next year, but on balance, the odds are extremely
high that the recent intense rate of selling will abate when whatever these guys are doing is completed before
this EMU timetable, which, as I repeat, is probably sooner rather than later, more likely the end of this year at
the latest rather than late April or the end of 1998.

OK, that's the near term, let's talk about the long term. I said to you that our views are that demand in the
market has been much higher than is widely believed and the flow of central bank gold has been much larger
than is widely believed. I've had this position, about the size of central bank flows, both the sales and the
borrowings, for a very long time. If some of you know my work, I wrote two pieces in Forbes, back in 1995,
one called "What's Holding Gold Down?" and I said "Central banks." and another one called "Brother Can
You Spare an Ingot" and I talked about central bank sales and now heavy borrowing holding the price of gold
down. At that time, most people thought it was far too alarmist to talk about central bank borrowing and
central bank selling of those magnitudes. Now, no one doubts that in fact this is occurring, but no one's
focusing on the long run significance of such large flows. I told you we feel very very comfortable with our
assessments, we've documented them in great detail in this book that we're bringing out. The implications are
pretty simple. If gold demand is that much higher and the deficit in the market is that much higher and the flow
of central bank gold is that much higher, then two things follow: 1 ) the flow is likely to be unsustainable
because it is so high, the rate at which bullion is leaving central banks vaults is higher than people think and
therefore less sustainable than people think, and 2 ) if the deficit of the market is much larger than people think,
when this flow abates or ends, as ultimately it must, the gold price will have to go much higher than anyone
thinks in order to clear the market. The way the market clears is largely by rationing down price elastic demand
to the level of mine and scrap supply. Mine supply is fairly price inelastic. We have come up with some
estimates, from econometric studies done by others as well as our own analysis of past gold market data, of
what the price elasticities of demand and supply are in the gold market. Applying those elasticities to the size
of the gold market deficit that we believe now prevails, when this central bank flow abates you get a very high
market clearing price relative not only to the current price but to the average price of $386 of the prior 3 years.
So we think that, in the long run, a couple years out, you are going to see much better gold prices than most
people think, as long as the biggest central banks, that is the European Central Bank ( dominated by the
Germans and the French ) and the United States Fed don't sell gold. We think that it is highly probable that
these central banks will not sell gold. The longer term, then, is actually much much more positive than anyone
imagines. We've documented all of this in this book we are producing: why we believe that gold supply and
demand are different than is widely believed; what the various price elasticities of the supply and demand
variables are; and what kind of price results you'd get to clear the market when these central bank flows abate.

There are two other questions that I thought were important. One was "How does the financial crisis in Asia
impact gold demand?" We think that the crisis in Asia has probably chopped off about 300 - 400 tonnes or
close to 10% annually from last year's demand level and I would say 400 - 500 tonnes or 8% versus the type
of demand levels that we would have had otherwise this year. Part of this reduction in demand in a transitory
thing. A surprisingly large amount of the decline in demand in the Southeast Asian countries was due to
dishoarding in Thailand. We believe that dishoarding in Thailand has now abated. There may be a new shock
of a similar sort coming out of Korea because the Korean economy and currency is under a lot of pressure
now. But these bouts of dishoarding tend to be quite transitory. We expect that, once they run their course, the
more sustainable decline in demand will result from the depreciation of these
currencies; there devaluations raise the gold price in these currencies which rations down price elastic
demands. This more sustainable decline will be more in the order of about 200 to 300 tonnes. So, we're
talking about a market that's in a deficit of somewhere between 1500-1800 tonnes for 1997 overall. God
knows below $300 gold it's more than that, maybe 2000+ tonnes at an annual rate. The Asian currency crisis,
with these currencies at these depressed levels, probably would chop a couple hundred tonnes off of demand
on a sustainable basis. This demand decline has been an important factor in this year's gold bear market but
it's not the
overwhelming factor. What's really caused this bear market is central bank gold flows, not threats of central
bank selling, not Swiss selling in 2001, not the Asian currency crisis, but central bank selling and borrowed
gold flows that are occurring right now, that are occurring this year.

Now, the other question that was asked was "What will happen to the dollar and what is its impact on gold
demand?". Well, this year we have a huge rise in the dollar against a gold demand weighted basket of
currencies. What's important is not the dollar exchange rate against, let us say, the British exchange rate,
because when the dollar exchange rate changes against the British Pound and influences the Pound price of
gold, it doesn't effect global gold demand very much because the Brits don't buy very much gold. What's
really important is the movement of the dollar against those countries that consume the most gold. That would
be Southeast Asia and India.

This year we've had a tremendous rise in the dollar in the 2nd half of the year against an index of currencies
weighted by gold demand - that is, in effect, one that's weighted heavily by the Far East Asian countries. My
own belief is that the current break in the Southeast Asian currencies has gone much too far. Take the Korean
Won. The Korean Won was 8000 in 1996, it was 9000 by the middle of this year. The current account deficit
of Korea had already swung from a 4% of GDP deficit last year to a balance by November and now we've
taken the Korean Won all the way down to 14,500. This degree of depreciation of these Asian currencies far
anything that's needed to get their current account and balance of payment houses in order. In fact, Far East
Asia overall is a current account surplus block against the United States. China, for example, has a 5.5 billion
dollar monthly per trade surplus with the United States. The
currencies of this whole Asian block over the long run are not going to be depreciated against the U.S. dollar.
In my own view, if you look at the dollar against these key Asian currencies, this dollar rise looks like as
much of a dollar disequilibrium as the 1984/1985 rise, and one that has the potential for an equivalent kind of
reversal. In that period, as a result of the big rise in the dollar, the current account deficit of the United States
went to about 3% of GDP. Prior to the rally in the dollar this year this deficit was already at 2% of GDP. With
the long lags in trade, we can expect the current account deficit of the United States as a percent of GDP
to go to an all time record. Back in 1985/86 we were still a net creditor nation. Now we have a net debt equal
to 12% of GDP. If you look at the United States from a balance of payments point of view, its net debt
position, its current account deficit, where its current account deficit is
going to go, it looks like an incredibly vulnerable currency. So, although I think we're going to chop a couple
of hundred tonnes off of demand at an annual rate now from the soaring dollar against the Far East Asian
currencies, this will be more than reversed in the years to come. OK,
that's it. Thank you.

To: Karl Zetmeir ( 4442 )
From: Jay Bilotta
Friday, Dec 19 1997 7:04AM EST
Reply # of 4492


BC: Frank, first of all, I'd like to say thanks very much for that somewhat detailed overview on gold markets
and gold flows. I would actually lead off with the first question. By the way, I'm Brad Cooke, President of
Canarc, and after I'm done anybody else who had questions please feel free to state your name and question
for Frank Veneroso.


BC: Frank, on the one hand, I'm reading in various newspapers and magazines today that the U.S. economy
is so strong that ultimately the markets, not only the American markets, but markets abroad, will be driven by
this huge engine of growth in the United States. That's one predominant opinion expressed in the media
today. The other view is that the U.S. dollar is on a bubble, like you just pointed out, that the deflation of
other currencies is overdone and that ultimately the U.S. dollar is in trouble, or could be in trouble next year.
How does the market reconcile those two very different positions?

FV: Look, the market doesn't think. I'm very serious about this. A mere year ago, the market was throwing
money at Southeast Asia, there was a growth miracle, there was nothing wrong. Today, the markets have
depreciated the Southeast Asian stock markets to an extraordinary degree. It is very very hard for me to justify
either extreme. I was an advisor to emerging country governments from 1971 to 1989 and I have some sort of
historical perspective on what's an extreme in this business. What I'm seeing in Southeast Asia and the
Southeast Asian currencies now is beyond anything I could have imagined. If you take a look at Southeast
Asia, it is a current account surplus block. China has a huge current account surplus, Taiwan has a huge
current account surplus. Some of these countries that are supposed to be problem countries like Korea have
only had a current account deficit of 4% of GDP at the peak. So I don't think
the markets really think about these things. I think that markets these days go to bigger extremes than they did
in the past.

About U.S. economic strength, it's very true that the U.S. is a very strong economy. We have a strong
economy when most of our trading partners have had weak economies. This has resulted in high interest rates
in the United States because we're at a late stage of an expansion against very low interest rates abroad
because they're very close to recession or at least they have high levels of unutilized resources. This large
interest rate differential is drawing capital flows into the United States and strengthening the dollar. But if you
take a long term view you're not
going to have this degree of cyclical asynchrony in the world economy in the future. You're not going to have
the U.S. economy at the end of a boom all the time while Europe and Japan have tremendous amounts of slack
and there is recession in a lot of the emerging world. I can assure you that, if you go out 5 years from now,
we're going to find that the tables are turned. When the tables are turned we'll have lower interest rates, not
higher interest rates, in the U.S. And these interest rate differentials will turn capital flows the other way and
unseat the dollar. I think what's really key here is that this is a very unique cyclical asynchrony that cannot
persist; it's currently supporting the dollar but it will not support the dollar in the future.

BC: OK. Thanks for that Frank. Does anybody else have a question for Frank Veneroso on gold?

John Hugate, Chairman of Misty Gold:

I've got a question. I'd like to hear your thoughts Frank on how oversold you believe gold is.

FV: I don't think about the gold market as being oversold. I know this sounds silly, but it's not a normal
market, it's not a market where you've got a lot of longs that are bailing out. The demand side of this market is
jewelry demand and bar hoarding demand by small people all over the world. They buy larger amounts on a
scale down. They tend to spend a certain fixed amount of their income on gold. When gold becomes cheaper
on a per ounce basis, their income buys more ounces. What drives this market is supply. It's not mine supply
because mine supply is really quite static in the short run. It's actually quite static in the long run as well. Mine
supply grows at a very slow rate under virtually all conditions. What drives this market is the flow of central
bank gold. This flow of central bank gold is the sum of central bank sales and borrowed gold flows from
various sources. As these flows intensify, they drive the price down so that the income of all these little people
all across the world can absorb the larger number of ounces that the central banks are selling. It's a market that
is driven by supply. The way to really think about the market is, "When will the supply that's driving it down
abate?". Now, it's my
view that we now have an extreme unsustainably intense flow and that it will abate. And so, the term
"oversold" seems less relevant to me in a market that has this kind of a market clearing mechanism.

John: As a follow on that Frank - What condition would have to persist or be created to cause central banks to
buy as opposed to sell?

FV: Well, in this book we're coming out with, I do a lot of historical studies to show that, over the long run,
gold's appreciation in real terms exceeds the real interest return on government bills. If you take a long enough
historical perspective, it's not hard to see that. Most people think the gold price went up a lot after 1971
because it was held down by central
banks. In fact, if you look at the record it was actually supported by central banks in 1971. So the whole
increase in the gold price from 1971 to 1996 was a free market rise in the price. Well, the real return to gold
over that period was 5%. Treasury bills have never yielded anything like 5% in real terms for so long a time.
Now, I believe that at some point in the future gold's long run real return will become manifest. The real
rationale for most central bankers for selling gold today is that it doesn't have a return. The real rationale for a
lot of people who are going short is that it's a very low cost borrowing. In fact neither is true over the long
run. These central banks and short sellers are looking at the last 5 or 10 years of a bear market that is a recoil
from a huge bull market that occurred in the 1970's. They basically have backward looking expectations. They
think that the last 5 or 10 years is what the future will be like. Eventually, market participants will come to
realize that gold's commodity dynamics generate a positive real return. And when that happens, I think that
some central banks will be more inclined not to sell and other central banks will be more inclined to buy.

Bruce Paid??, Morgan Stanley:
Frank can you quantify, or at least touch on, the role of the options' activity in the gold market and is there any
way of getting some kind of a handle as to what this action for position may actually be in the market?

FV: Are you on the gold trading desk?

Bruce: No, I'm not. I just manage private money.

FV: OK, well look, go to your gold trading desk and ask them about this. Once again, we've discussed this in
this book. There are 100,000 put options on Comex and 350,000 call options on Comex. What does that tell
us? Comex is the tip of the iceberg. The OTC market in gold is 10
times the Comex. We've taken a look at this and we've said, OK, there's a great deal of double counting in all
of this. A lot of option exposure is hedged from one dealer to another or on to the Comex and then from the
Comex back to the OTC market. What percentage of this grossed up market is the true net position of this
market? We did a bunch of calculations and we concluded that the total net face value of these options is about
4,000 tonnes and the delta on these options is probably about 1,000 to 1,800 tonnes. Part of this option
position is producer in origin, most of it is central bank in origin. This delta probably accounts for 1,000 to
tonnes of total gold borrowings which we estimate at about 8,000 tonnes. This option structure provides a
certain amount of resistance to the gold price when the gold price rises, but for certain technical reasons, this
resistance is only transitory. Basically what happens is that those options are short dated. They soon get
re-written. When they get re-written to a higher strike price, this selling pressure that emerges on any rally
abates. Options complicate the dynamics of the gold market but they don't really change it. If you talk to your
dealers about it, they might agree about this. I've talked to some dealers and they think my estimate of the delta
on the total option book of the market of about 1,000/1,800 tonnes is not out of the ballpark. They see their
own books. They estimate what percentage of the overall market they are. Then they project from that and
come up with a number that's of that magnitude.

BC: So Frank, this is Brad Cooke again. At the outset here today you said that you estimated about half of the
difference between gold demand and gold supply is filled by either central bank sales or central bank lending.
You also, in your research this year, talked about the slingshot
effect on the downside when the shorts get hold of gold and of course on the upside when they cover. You
haven't talked about short covering here today. Do you want to say something about that?

FV: Yes. I wrote a piece after we broke in July ( I guess it was around August ) . Basically I thought that the big
break that occurred then was due to fund short selling and I'm sure fund short selling was a big contributor to
it. The market was supported by physical demand and I believe by some Asian central bank buying. The
market then built a base and rallied up to 330. At that particular point in time we had a giant short position in
the market. At any other time in history, once you broke above 330 you would've exploded. We broke above
330, we had a huge amount of short covering, literally 500, 700, 800 tonnes in a very short period of time and
the market was absolutely contained by central bank selling. The big central bank selling that's probably been
the problem late this year hasn't occurred here, but occurred on that rally. What that did was to provide a huge
amount of gold to the market that let the shorts out. Then the shorts were free to go short again once the price
went down. Once that rally above 330 failed and we started down again, the funds started to go to the short
side again. But the market was already saturated with all the central bank gold that was thrown into the teeth of
that short selling rally. Now, I'll also say that the central bank selling has persisted, and persisted in a very
uncharacteristically savage way. I mean, these guys have been beating up the dealers. This is very unusual.
Central banks normally have operated through the BIS. Then selling was done with a great deal of discretion,
it was done very cooperatively with dealers. We're hearing stories about dealers taking losses, getting set up
by central banks, saying this is how much we're going to sell, there's no more behind it. All of a sudden all
the other gold dealers get hit with a couple hundred thousand ounces and the dealer gets bagged. I must say,
it's very
very uncharacteristic. But, at some point, this large short position will unravel. Whether or not you get the
sling shot effect, whether you get a powerful rally or not, will depend upon whether or not there's a very very
large volume of central bank selling or producer selling or both into the teeth of the short covering rally. My
guess is that, when these big central banks are done, yes, there'll be central banks that will sell into the teeth of
that rally, but the quantities will be less. And then the short covering rally that materializes will be substantial.

BC: Another question for Frank?

Judy Lipton: Yes. I've heard some rumours that between '61, and let's say Nixon, that U.S. may have ended
up losing a lot of their gold supplies. Is there any real way of quantitating what the fed has and if they don't
have what we think is there some way for it to be known so that it may effect the market's reactions?

FV: I have no opinion on this. I've heard this talk and there are other analysts that have opinions about it. I
really don't. I assume that the U.S. has the gold it says that it has and I wouldn't know how to figure out

Judy: OK thank you.

Ramon???? Manager of ??? Gold Mines:
Yes, I have a question please. Mr. Veneroso, there is another central bank outside the European union which
is of the Swiss central bank which we found being pressured from the coming of the European Central Bank
and now huge selling of gold. Actually you didn't explain the ??? because they didn't have to announce it
really last year and they made a big move.

FV: You want me to comment on the planned Swiss sale?

Ramon: Yes.

FV: OK. First of all, as you know, you need a change in the constitution through a referendum in order to sell
the gold in the Swiss central bank. This is not going to be an easy referendum to win. It's not going to be easy
because the current polls show about an even split between those who oppose and those who are for this gold
sale. But, in order to be able to get the referendum to pass, you need not only a popular majority, a majority
among all the voters, but you need a Cantonal majority. The Cantons have very skewed population makeups.
The more liberal type of people that are more inclined to vote for the referendum, that is for gold sales, are
concentrated in the cities, therefore, in the urban Cantons. Those who are more likely to be opposed, the more
conservative, are in the rural Cantons and there are far more rural Cantons than there are urban Cantons. So, if
you have an even split in the polls for the popular vote
on the referendum you will probably lose the Cantonal vote. The Swiss authorities know they have an uphill
battle. They have therefore given themselves a lot of time to prepare their campaign to win. Now, they're
going to have a lot of opposition. Christoff Blocher, who is the head of
the opposition party, has decided to campaign against the referendum and Blocher has tended to win in most
of these referendums. The Swiss National Bank and the Government have given themselves a lot of time to
produce the propaganda to create the change in thinking and sentiment in Switzerland needed for the
referendum to pass. That's why they've announced it early, that's why they had a special panel appointed to
make an independent recommendation and the like. There will not be any Swiss sales until probably the year
2000 if the referendum passes. The referendum doesn't occur until sometime well into 1999. My own belief is
that the referendum is not going to pass. If we have a split in the popular majority we're going to lose the
Cantonal vote and if they lose the Cantonal vote there'll be no gold sales. Some of the officials in the Swiss
National Bank have privately told some of my friends who know them well, that the referendum will not pass.
It is not the Swiss issue that is weighing on the gold market, it's physical gold sales by central banks today
and physical gold borrowings from central banks today.

Ramon: Yes, but I mean the Swiss Central Bank didn't make this move with the aim of losing the referendum
but with the aim to win it of course and I would like just to have an explanation of why they did such a thing
because they really changed their politics.

FV: Look, it is my view that there are a lot of bureaucrats in central banks today who don't believe in gold.
They believe it is an asset inherited from another era, it is barren, it does not bear interest; therefore it should
be sold and put into some kind of an interest bearing
security. I think that the Swiss National Bank officials are of this line of thinking. They seized on the
holocaust fund as an opportunity to get the constitution changed, which would allow for this diversification
out of gold into government securities. I also feel that they may have made a miscalculation, they did not think
they would be confronted with as much opposition as they're facing.

Unknown person: Frank I have a question that hasn't been answered as to how it would effect gold, and this
in retrospect to Japan because we're not going into a 10 minute desecration. To me, Japan's entire financial
system is built around a value with company shares and that foundation is in the process of crumbling. If the
Japanese market does tend to crumble, they
have a U.S. 1929 stock market disaster, how would that effect go? Japan is a strong nation, we're not talking
about Korea now, we're not talking about the Netherlands or Belgium, we're talking about a very strong

FV: Quickly, there is going to be a move before that happens to monetize the debt in the banks, to take the
huge bad debts off the backs of the banks. In effect there's going to be more extreme reflationary measures
than have already occurred. That might be somewhat negative for
gold if it weakens the currency and thereby drives the yen price of gold up which will ration down demand.
On the other hand, in the past, because the Japanese have a long tradition of hoarding gold, events like this
have stimulated gold investing. In 1995, when there was a run on the banks, there was a big surge in bar
hoarding in Japan. It has since abated. There are signs that it's recurring now. Japan will get negative real
interest rates; in the long run that should stimulate bar hoarding in Japan.

RC: Ladies and gentlemen, we have approximately 5 minutes left and I have a call from Switzerland. Oswaldo
Carciente please go ahead.

Oswaldo Carciente:
Thank you. Frank, I have two questions. The first question is what is the credit risk involved in all this central
bank borrowing. They have been lending all this gold, the question is how can they be guaranteed of getting
the gold back? 2nd question is, you've talked very well about this market had been oversupplied and that has
been the major problem and as you very well know, gold markets and ??? only happen with major investment
demand and basically that's the swing factor which will eventually make things look completely different
because right now what you are looking at is investment. What do you think about the prospect of investment

FV: Well first of all, I don't think that you need investment demand to have a rally in the gold price. I think all
you need is to have an end to official disinvestment and gold borrowing. I won't disagree with you that, in the
1970's, investment demand caused the bull market, that's true, but I think right now the model of the gold
market that's appropriate is much more a commodity flow supply/flow demand model. If you reduce the
supply, the price will go up. I don't want to speculate right now on investment demand. I think we're too far
removed from that. Yes, there will be investment demand at some point in the future. I can see a lot of things
happening on the world macro scene that could create investment demand. But that's a very complex issue, so
I'm loathe to really comment on it. This market will turn up because you will get an abatement of the central
bank flow and an unwinding of the speculative short positions which are the real investment or speculative
positions in the market today.

BC: So Frank, I think at this juncture I'd like to rap up. I want to thank you first of all for giving us the
pleasure of your views today. There's many many questions that were not asked of you that I think you some
very interesting views on. Canarc's proposing to do a transcript of
today's call and if anybody would like a transcript, please contact Robert Carriere at our office over the next
day or two. Frank as you know does proprietary research into global market, specializing in gold flows. He
didn't throw out numbers for instance on how low gold was going to go this month or how high it's going to
go next month but I think his contacts and knowledge in the bullion market can give you clear indications of
the direction gold is going. I have a number of questions with regard to the Asian crisis and I think the U.S.
dollar is in fact going to be somewhat weaker next year, but I think we'll save those questions for another
time. So Frank, I want to thank you very much and if anybody who's listening in wants to receive your
research or in fact the gold book that you have out in January they are also welcome to contact Robert Carriere
here at Canarc. So that's it for now, thank you very much.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:45 - ID#238295)
gold up
February gold up $1.60; gold stocks cutting losses.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 14:58 - ID#407135)
gold price
I dont know about spot gold Vertigo but gives futures just 20 mins behind real time

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:00 - ID#24140)
Through a glass darkly


The gold/silver ratio began its collapse at 76.5.

It has now cleared a ratio a 47.1 and risen ever so


IF a soothsayer divides 47.1/76.5 what does he get -

The Fearsome Number - 0.618 the reciprocal of which is

1.618 -- ITS THE BIG FIBO. Watch out silver - here

comes GOLD.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:01 - ID#42371)
I cant even get the frame version of this group. Kitco sites better not go down or I'm checking myslf into the Betty Ford to get addiction counselling

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:02 - ID#344290)
@ John Disney
John, just wondered if you knew of Sir Leonard Hutton, a man I was priviledged to be an associate of for a couple of years? Also, I recall a product - Santy's "Van Der Hamm", is it available in North America to your knowledge? Ta -

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:07 - ID#42371)
Rob-h. Thanks.
BTW Feb Gold now up $1.90.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:12 - ID#20167)
Avalon, your 13:20
"The controlling legal authority" has been compromised. That's just for starters. In all probability there exists a criminal conspiracy amoung
certain govt. officials in various nations and the world's central banksters.
Since brokerage firms either know about or are part of the conspiracy, they are trading on inside information, which is a criminal act.
All these are manifestations of the evil required to keep the fiat money game alive. The financial system as we know it is doomed to failure along with the attendant human misery that it will cause.
The only solution is a return to a real money system as defined by our constitution, GOLD & SILVER.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:13 - ID#225283)
Dow @ 100
Looks like they have done it again....pushed it back down to a loss of 100 to keep the lemmings calm while they are all out spending money they do not have...very interesting

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:16 - ID#93114)
Pavlovs Dog...The Great American Market Crash
Isn't it wonderfull that the investment public all over the world is trained like Pavlov's Dog.

Whenever the equity markets plummet the investors wait for the buying opportunity which is always around the next dip.

Pavlov's Dog was trained by reinforcement of the same pattern over and over. Did anyone ever wonder what happened to the Dog when

Pavlov stopped reinforcing the same trained response? Well I am sure the dog put his tail between

his/her legs and just crawled away and died because all meaning of life was finished. Well everyone,

the big players are reinforcing the ma, pa and babyboomer investors again.

I think the greatest things the Wall Street establishment ever dreamed up, are the derivatives. They get you coming and going.

The problem that I have is determining the point that the manipulation is going to end. It seems that with today's market behavior

we may be seeing a tremendous buying opportunity. This opportunity is once in a lifetime. I would not be

surprised that the market forces have called Santa Claus to deliver the

last present of this millenium. A skyrocketing stock market. The only

problem that Santa has is just like when Pavlov's dog died without constant reinforcement, the rocket will die because

Santa may not have packaged enough rocket fuel!!!!!

The key question is..when will the establishement say "THE PARTY IS OVER"?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:16 - ID#344308)

the buy-on-the-dips-for-lunch-bunch had their
shot at reversing the short-term trend today.
looks like they ran into the un-stoppable force.
they are still giving it hell.

who knows which stock exchange president went
bankrupt buying the dips in '29?

smells like napalm in the morning-----pungent.....the pungent
smell of panic, and a roaring fire, burning some @sses.

the stampede from the 'kraal has begun, step aside while the
'smart money' tramples the 'dumb money' into their relegated
places......under-foot, where they have always needed to be, and
where they are now headed. ( again )

lgeb----kinda has a ring to it....birds of a feather....

silver is looking ill, imm, it is fixing to drop like a rock...
hate to see it happen.....the big boys are going to bust the
weak longs and take their cash before busting to the next

!; ) ---winning-from-losing-----------

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:18 - ID#24140)
Drinks all round

For Mr Crunch

Sadly I never had the pleasure. I know of a drink called Van der

Humm ( I thought ) - kind of spicy liqueur. Am I off base ??

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:20 - ID#287367)
Thanks for the Veneroso conference call- absolutely fascinating!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:24 - ID#201131)
The yen and gold
THe yen goes down and gold still goes up. interesting change of pace here.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:26 - ID#260194)
Great job of copy and paste!!!!

Thank You Very Much

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:28 - ID#344308)


huge put activity on the oex today....the big houses
were selling their puts, taking their profits, betting
the market is headed upward!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:28 - ID#260194)
@ I meant NJ

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:29 - ID#372344)
@ Why is Platinum down if SA has PU's?
Because as I correctly stated when PT was at 370 that the weakness
in the YEN and in the far East markets in general would be perceived
by the markets a negative for PT and PD, since they preferred PT to
GOLD for jewelry and coins, and the perception was that they would
have to liquidate, or at least curtail they demand at a time when US$
was up in the clouds. If one followed the recent upturn in PT IMHO
it corrolated directly with a rise in the YEN vs US$ and the present stand-off. I totally agree that We shall see much much higher prices
for PT ( I love the stuff ) once the markets begin to focus once again
on the supply ( 70% SA with PU's ) side of reality.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:35 - ID#254269)
@ AYORK : You mean these guys are crooks ! ! !

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:37 - ID#372344)
@ xau5
Good point! but remember that we are now starting to see a bit of a
premium added to GOLD today because it is FRIDAY! and anything
and everything can happen over the week-end. I supect we shall
have to wait until next week to confirm or NOT if the US$ Gold YEN
relationships are still on.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:39 - ID#31868)
You are still the dummies dummy. Knock on wood you socialist wannabe.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:40 - ID#227238)
Cherokee: Isn't it just amazing how that works? The big guys get a call from the PPT and, magically, begin selling puts to the lemmings. Harvest time is full of wonder over God's bounty. .......And just in time for Christmas.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:46 - ID#364147)
Aurator........with sap(BLOOD) on me hands
Aurator: Was like chainsawin me brother----sob-sob....

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:48 - ID#364147)
Posting stolen jokes
Q: Did you hear Lorena Bobbit died in a car crash?
A: Some dick cut her off.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:55 - ID#228100)
Y2K Crisis
This week I was in a meeting with another CIO. A large supermarket chain this time. The CIO was presented with a detailed plan that required at least two years of work and about $20M to renovate their systems for Year 2000 compliance.
He told them to forget it, that they could not did not have any money in the 1998 budget for Year 2000 work. When his people asked how they would manage the year 2000 effort, he said thats too far away for us to worry about. We need to focus just on 1998.
Later one of his managers explained that the CIO was concentrating on his yearly bonus, and not the long-term needs of the company.

The Year 2000 crisis will begin unfolding in the fall 1998. About this time of year, people begin to realize that its too late to change the course of the current year, and they begin planning for next year. Hence, October is the historical year for market problems!
In October, the CIOs will also be thinking about their plans and bonuses for the year 1999. They will realize that if a real crisis hits, they will get no bonus. So they go to the board and ask for a 400% increase in budget. ( What the heck, we can capitalize it anyway! ) Many CEOs will ask some very tough questions, and then will find someone to blame.

Now the planning for the crisis begins. Which systems are okay? Which just need a simple upgrade? Do we upgrade the old payroll system or buy a new one? Decisions, decisions.
This wont be an end of civilization as we know it, but it will have as just as much impact to the global economy as the oil price increases of 1973 and 1978. Opportunities! Opportunities! Opportunities!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 15:57 - ID#20167)
Doesn't the presumed good end justify the sacrilegious means?
After all it is only decency and faith in humanity that is being sacrificed.

John Disney__A
(Fri Dec 19 1997 16:00 - ID#24140)
You are a one off - and one is enough
For Mr Spaceman.

I find your posting on platinum and the yen the most incomprehensible

thing I have ever read. I will keep it among my souvenirs. It is

priceless - You certainly have your own way of looking at things.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 16:01 - ID#31868)
death to the FED, WB, IMF, BIS
These dirtbags use the money of the people to continue their financing of the people's servitude. I say they are the criminals, they are the disease.

This is not a game, this is about freedom of choice, your's individually vs. their's as a collective of unknowns that know what's best for you the individual.

My fondest wish is that they all have accidents over the weekend so that we can all live happily ever after in a world without "them."

Get Camdesuss! That would be a minor start in the proper direction. In a dream Karlito is driving Camdesuss as they go over the cliff with Buddy still howling his discontent at Camdesuss's vulgarity and intrusion upon his dog-hood.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 16:21 - ID#78116)
The IMF to the rescue
Fortunately, the IMF exists. In 1929 it did not and in 1929 when banks when bust, so did all the deposits and so did all the individuals who happened to have their money at those banks.

Happily, in 1997 the IMF exists. What they will do is force much needed market reforms on countries like South Korea while saving the deposits of the individuals who put their money in those banks.

Were it not for the IMF, Mexico would still be in a depression. Were it not for the IMF, the situation in Asia would be far worse than it is today. Thanks your lucky stars the IMF exists.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 16:23 - ID#78116)
Intolerant... too much time in Tequillaville?
Is it possible that you could ever make a post and not slander someone. Is it that you are constantly in a drunken stupor and don't know any better or are you really just a bitter loser who can't tell reality from the shadows on the wall?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 16:23 - ID#254269)
@ NJ re Veneroso
Really enjoyed the Veneroso article; thanks. One thing he said in there is
"Look, the market doesn't think; it just moves from one extreme to another". Very interesting.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 16:30 - ID#31868)
This is not slander, you dolt. I am calling you on the carpet and telling the planet that in my opinion you are a carefully guided socialistic slut.

Trust me dimwit. I do not sparse my words to hide behind some grade level 12 clerk.

I do not like you and your continuous lies.

Tell me Dear Karlito, what part of FU did you not understand. You, your person, specific and without coulds. You dimwit.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 16:46 - ID#246224)
A few other tidbits from the Veneroso conference call ..
Average gold price past 5 years ( assume this is inflation adjusted ) $385.
Current demand is from fabricators and small bar "hoarders" world-wide. Investment money is not in the market AT ALL ( little impact on demand at this point ) .

Yearly flow from Banks 1000 - 1800 Metric Tonnes making up for lack in supply ( mines and scrap ) . ( This flow will stop sooner than later )

He believes small European CB's have been playing hard-ball to completely liquidate their gold positions prior to German/French ( who are pro gold ) control of those reserves come 1998. This to end this year or at latest April 1998.

Most hedging and other peripheral Bank sales have come in response to this European flow ( and will end as the perception emerges that market will rebound ) . As short covering moves gold up resistance will fade out and gold will return to a price where market supply and demand are equalized via price increases ( demand exceeds supply by 1000 Metrric Tonnes at a minimum now ) .

(Fri Dec 19 1997 16:47 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 26.80

(Fri Dec 19 1997 16:47 - ID#348286)
Tolerant1 - right on buddy. KARMELITA99 is in the wrong place, talking up the DOW and talking down Gold.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 16:49 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .246

(Fri Dec 19 1997 16:50 - ID#26793)
Silver/Gold Ratio = 47.68

(Fri Dec 19 1997 16:51 - ID#35767)
It is not the job of the govt to take taxpayer money and give it to the IMF to bailout bad investments and then impose a rigid regime on the working people of the country to ensure the IMF gets its money back at untold social and human cost. I am to the left of center and believe in helping those who pay the taxes not those who make foolish investment decisions because they know someone will bail them out. Socialism for Goldman Sachs et al and market discipline for the rest of you Shvine!!

By the way Mexico is in a Depression if you are average person. For the 15 billionaire familes NO YOU are right things have turned around and indeed their portfolios are doing quite well thus indicating a Mexican recovery while millions of children there still live in utter and complete poverty and the police kidnap people on their off time and hold them for ransom to make ends meet. What a recovery. KARLITO GET A BRAIN!

From a TRUE Progressive Liberal of the Gephardt wing of the Dem Party.
We won on Fast Track and will win versus MAI. Also Our progressive liberal wing ( read not new democrat ) is against any funds for the IMF and will forge an alliance with pro American Republicans to beat back the baying for taxpayer money by IMF. Victory will be ours in1998.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 17:01 - ID#31868)
Yo! Socialist Karlito. Hey, Yo, Comrade!
"The IMF, WB, FED, BIS are criminals and should be hanged as the double talking, double dealing low-life scum that they are." LET EVERY AMERICAN GO TO THE BANK RIGHT NOW AND GET THEIR MONEY, OR WILL THE CRIMINALS PRINT MORE LOANS WITH INTEREST SO THE PEOPLE CAN ACTUALLY GET THEIR CASH. Will the ink still be dry on their "money?"

I am not casting aspersions, nor in any way not being direct. You and people that think like you are lying, criminal dogs that should drown in their own filth and not live in towers ordering room service payable on the people's neck's, wallet's and unborn children.

You, like Karl should have spent more time earning money rather than wasting time writing about a subject you know nothing about.

Oh, sorry, a subject is something other than that which lives to serve you.

Please let me know if you consider this slander you socialistic, lying, print more paper, call it money and tell me I owe you interest on that which is mine, you lying dog Karlito, a socialistic dog by any other name.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 17:09 - ID#224151)
IMHO todays Dow action was not an impressive comeback from disaster but rather a
graphic pointer in the future disastrous direction the Dow is going to take. The A/D...
the His and Lows , the buy sell volumes and the obvious PPT derivative activity and
Buy-back ops ( to name just a few of the tech only negatives ) all suggest to me the Bear
is here and he has come by way of Asia. It has been one Heluva Bull Market....and now
one Heluva Bear Mkt is looming. And The Golden Bear is about to perform a dazzlingly
Bullish metamorphosis! IMHO ( In my Hopeful Opinion ) .

(Fri Dec 19 1997 17:20 - ID#20167)
tolerant 1 on little Karl Marx
hey tolerant 1 don't be so intolerant. Little Karl is probably in a state of shock and suffering from his unbelievable denial. Inquiring minds will eventually learn the truth.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 17:20 - ID#341214)
Year2000, Cherokee
Year2000: Thanks for that info regarding the supermarket. No doubt they will either go belly up or have severely impacted operations. This is a perfect example of why I'm telling my wife we need to lay in a supply of food and supplies that will last us 3 to 6 months. She finds it next to impossible that food deliveries could actually be impacted in any real way. I say the potential is there for short term interruption of many things that we take for granted. I would rather be in a situation where I've taken too many precautions. I can always eat the food and use the supplies. Hopefully, I'll be lucky enough to be living in an area where the people take the survival of their business a little more seriously than that supermarket CIO.

Cherokee: Gotta agree with you on Silver. Went short at 6.01. I think it's time for a rest before we continue upward.


(Fri Dec 19 1997 17:24 - ID#31868)
Was dogma a one syllable or two syllable linguistic attempt on your part with regards to communicating with your Mother?

Is this why you feel such a bond with Michel Camdesuss?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 17:30 - ID#335190)
The Price of GOLD in Canadian Dollars is rising EH!
December 19, 1997
Loonie closes below 70 cents US for first time in 12 years

TORONTO ( CP ) - The Canadian dollar fell a quarter of a cent Friday and closed below 70 cents US for the first time in nearly 12 years as currency speculators bet against the Bank of Canada raising interest rates. The loonie traded as low as 69.75 cents US and ended the day at 69.88 cents US on currency markets, down .24 of a cent. It was the first time since March, 1986 the currency had closed trading under the 70-cent US level.

Analysts said the dollar came under heavy selling pressure overnight and
selling intensified Friday morning after the Bank of Canada refused to raise its benchmark interest rate to boost confidence in the troubled currency.

"The bottom has fallen out," said Andrew Pyle, chief strategist at ABN
AMRO Bank Canada. "The Bank of Canada chose not to raise rates, despite the fact that the market was looking at this as the last window of opportunity ... to protect the currency before the holidays."

(Fri Dec 19 1997 17:37 - ID#335190)
Canada @ Deflation Rate (As is Japan, As will be Canada, EH! )
December 19, 1997
Canada dollar ends much weaker but off 11-year low

TORONTO, Dec 19 ( Reuters ) - Canada's dollar ended the week at its weakest closing levels in 11 years on Friday in a volatile session in which the currency dropped after the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady.

"With the CPI numbers out, the bank was somewhat handcuffed and the market went for the jugular basically," said one currency dealer with a Canadian bank. "It's backed off the top of the range, but it's still a weaker Canada.

The currency ended the session at C$1.4312 ( US$0.6987 ) , weaker from its close on Thursday of C$1.4265 ( US$0.7010 ) but stronger from its intraday low of C$1.4345 ( US$0.6971 ) .

The currency's slide came after the Bank of Canada's usual morning window for rate changes passed without a hike. The central bank later intervened heavily on foreign exchange markets in a vain attempt to shore up the currency.

Analysts said one factor that may have stayed the central bank's hand was a report on Friday that consumer prices in Canada rose just 0.9 percent in the past year. Canada's inflation rate, among the lowest in the industrialized world, is below the central bank's own one to three percent target range.

With such low inflation and with sliding commodity prices expected to weigh on growth in Canada, economists said the central bank may be having second thoughts about using higher interest rates to try and defend the dollar.

But some dealers said the bank could risk losing investor confidence by allowing the dollar to fall as far as it had. "It still remains under pressure until we get a bank hike most likely, until the end of the year," the dealer said.

On the crosses, the dollar weakened to 1.2407 marks from 1.2433 marks but firmed 90.39 marks from 90.18 yen.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 17:40 - ID#20137)
What a nice close for gold and silver.
I for one think that Allen is getting his wishes granted. On a tough day like today gold move up $2.00 and silver finished 6.07. WOW!

Arden what do the stocks look like? Thanks for all your hard work. It has been very helpful to all of us.

SDRer: very interesting post this morning.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 17:47 - ID#344308)

back to silver--------507 to 512 area to rest-up
and make a 50% re-tracement. this happens over
and over, let's see if it happens here.

earl------you are here-by requested to fulfill
your obligation as kitco-emeritus-writeritus, immediately!

your seat is intact, and shall not be denegrated by another.
front row, with a window ( 360* view! ) seat. ted has the super-duper-
hubbly-bubbly fired-up with ss#1..........blast-off imminent.....

cherokee!~; ) -----ridin-the-railway-of-life-with--------------------------------------a-one-way-ticket-to-paradise--------eddie money......

(Fri Dec 19 1997 17:48 - ID#335190)
Canada @ Red-Hot Economy for Banks (Unemployed=Oh Well!!!)
December 19, 1997

Unemployment the sore point of 1997 economy. Now what about '98?

OTTAWA ( CP ) - Anne Libby cashed in on the stock market in 1997. She reaped the rewards of a red-hot economy thanks to the success of the financial services sector as fund managers snapped up paintings at her Toronto art gallery like Bre-X shares before the sham was exposed.

"I only meet people when things have gone well for them," says Libby, whose customers spend up to $125,000 on a canvas.

With the six major banks reporting a record $7.5 billion in profits, and other corporate highs in 1997, it's a wonder Libby could keep frames on the walls.

Spud Master
(Fri Dec 19 1997 17:53 - ID#273112)
Karlito99, EB and LGB...
Congrats on your rigged stock markets this week: you are loosers to the tune of 273 points there about.

This not the begining of the end, but it is the end of the begining ( thanks to W. Churchill ) .

(Fri Dec 19 1997 17:56 - ID#201238)
comex data

Comex warehouse gold stocks fell 390 oz today to 543,742 oz

Comex warehouse silver stocks rose 288,830 oz to 118,074,756 oz today

(Fri Dec 19 1997 17:56 - ID#410194)
Comex data
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after today's trading:

Gold: Unchanged at 543,742

Silver: Rose 298,977 to 118,074,756 ( just above a fresh 13 year low )

March Silver closed above the psychologically important "600" level for a second day in a row. The bull market is intact and the odds are that another powerful leg up will get going soon.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 18:15 - ID#390214)
Thanks for the FV transcript

(Fri Dec 19 1997 18:17 - ID#344308)

you are quite mis-guided with your opinion, AND
statement, regarding mexico.

the 40billion bail-out to mexico, and its'
accompanying reform package, was a political
ploy to buy time and allow the international
banking community a way ( us taxpayers ) to
recoup their money. the suppossed early re-payment
of the debt was a LOAN!!! it was set-up to make
the idiots who loaned mexico ( klintonistas' ) the
money, look like they had hit a home run!!

mexico is lined-up to possibly beat canada to
the mat. ( face first )

their currency is succeptible to the speculators
who are feasting, and doing as the romans' did
due to excesses, regurgitating, so as to feast some more!!!!!!!!!!!!!

what does history have to say of the money changers?

i've been hammering this point for 6 months! canada and mexico
are teetering on the edge of in-surmountable debt! canada is
in much worse shape than mexico.

canada and mexico WILL crumble soon, period. short their currencies
and buy out of the money puts, this is a SURE thing! look at the
recent chart of the mexican peso, what do you see grasshopper?
look at the '80 to '84 charts. where should your money be? the
recent HUGE drop was predicted right here, and now, there is
fixing to be ANOTHER! damn folks, how can anybody not 'see' this

11 days and counting........january effect? with a new bearish twist...

cherokee!; ) ---swatting-flies-with-karlito-lookin-eyes---nasty!!-----

now-------is there ANY doubt? c'mon canadians, those who villified
me 6 months ago for stating facts. let's wrastle[sic]

(Fri Dec 19 1997 18:22 - ID#344308)

you are quite mis-guided with your opinion, AND
statement, regarding mexico.

the 40billion bail-out to mexico, and its'
accompanying reform package, was a political
ploy to buy time and allow the international
banking community a way ( us taxpayers ) to
recoup their money. the suppossed early re-payment
of the debt was a LOAN!!! it was set-up to make
the idiots who loaned mexico ( klintonistas' ) the
money, look like they had hit a home run!!
there was pre-cognizance by all the politicos
involved all the way to the president! deliberate
deciet!!! all the more un-palatable due to the
'they will believe it' attitude of the gov't!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

mexico is lined-up to possibly beat canada to
the mat. ( face first )

their currency is succeptible to the speculators
who are feasting, and doing as the romans' did
due to excesses, regurgitating, so as to feast some more!!!!!!!!!!!!!

what does history have to say of the money changers?

i've been hammering this point for 6 months! canada and mexico
are teetering on the edge of in-surmountable debt! canada is
in much worse shape than mexico.

now-------is there ANY doubt? c'mon canadians, those who villified
me 6 months ago for stating facts. let's wrastle[sic]

canada and mexico WILL crumble soon, period. short their currencies
and buy out of the money puts, this is a SURE thing! look at the
recent chart of the mexican peso, what do you see grasshopper?
look at the '80 to '84 charts. where should your money be? the
recent HUGE drop was predicted right here, and now, there is
fixing to be ANOTHER! damn folks, how can anybody not 'see' this

11 days and counting........january effect? with a new bearish twist...

cherokee!; ) ---swatting-flies-with-karlito-lookin-eyes---nasty!!-----

(Fri Dec 19 1997 18:30 - ID#35767)
Short versus the US Dollar with biggest contingent liabilities imaginable. The real ans is short the C$ Versus the only non liability currency ie gold.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 18:35 - ID#26669)
Read Steve Kaplan's comments about white metals trader's committments: Note the bearish trader's committments for silver. ( Taken with a suitably large grain of salt. )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 18:35 - ID#57232)
tolerant1: What happened today? You're not your typical tolerant self! I have learned one thing the hard way -- and that is you cannot force someone else to accept new ideas -- they must be willing/ready to accept them. It is their loss, not yours. You evolve, and they don't ---. Few people are ready to accept most of my ideas as well, so I just tell them what they are ready to hear -- even many of my friends.

Hope the day goes better for you -- your unique posting style is, I think appreciated by most on this site. Don't let the antics of the PPT get you down. You will make more money in gold stocks if the AG RR team keeps everything going a bit longer. I for one prefer a graceful fall to the precipice anyway -- if it can be arranged.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 18:45 - ID#339320)
Veneroso's CANARC Conference Call

In sum, the big impetus ( of cheap gold ) probably has been
a big European sale....

It is interesting how Mr. Veneroso does NOT address the
LBMA sales, but rather uses the Euro-banks sales as the
reason to excess supply. And that such sales appear to be
solely on paper, as gold-certificates, but NOT in physical

Given the extremely high volumes of the LBMA sales as
compared to the puny amount of Euro-bank sales, it
appears to me that this report is misdirecting ( no offense,
Mr. Veneroso ) Nor does it address the COMEX eligible
supply, as compared to the existing certificates against that
supply, which heavily outnumber the supply side. Nor
yesterdays 25% drop in eligible stocks. Even though
COMEX is a sideshow compared to the LBMA, it STILL
DOES determine golds daily price.

All these CENTRAL factors are missing from his Canarc
Conference Call, and after reading this pithy dialog, I could
not help but feel that I could not see the forest for the trees.

It would be interesting if Mr. Veneroso could address the
above, and even more interesting if he has made any
inquiries as to ( ANOTHERS ) the Saudi oil/gold situation,
and his comments.

Canarc Call: To have other central banks, particularly
European Central Banks, savage the market to this degree,
is really extraordinary; it represents the kind of
uncooperative behaviour on the part of some central banks
within the central banking community that I just find no
precedent for.

It seems to me that the central banks could not be more
cooperative in their actions; they are effectively keeping
this fiat Titanic afloat with their concerted effort to malign
golds principal function as a store of value, in order to
keep the fiat believers believing.
Sorry, the pieces just dont fit.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 18:49 - ID#348286)
@Tonight's NBR Market Monitor - Alfred E. GOLDman
Dow to 9200. ( dream on )
"Bullish on bonds and stocks."
"He liked todays action on the stock market" ( so did I )
"The year end rally is continuing" ( what year end rally? )
"Avoid Gold" ( of course, it doesn't pay him any commisions )

All in all, a good contrarian indicator for PM's.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 18:58 - ID#352177)
Veneroso and Armstrong
Both anaylists are of the view that, by the middle of 1998, once the CBs are done with their selling of excess gold, laws of supply and demand will take hold and the price of gold will move higher. However, unlike Venoroso, Martin Armstrong maintains that Germans will sell gold because Kohl needs the money and, following the example of other CB sales, the sale will come first and then the announcement.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 18:59 - ID#252150)
No Maple Leafs to be had in Victoria, B.C.
I finally decide to splurge & buy my wife a Maple Leaf for Xmas & found that there is a 6 to 8 wk wait here in Victoria. I was a little surprised that the local shops get most of their supply from the U.S. I asked him if they were still minting fresh ones & he answered "yeah, but they can't keep up with the demand". I guess the season has a lot to do with the scarcity. Why waste a couple hundred dollars on some crumby 12 or 14 carat jewelry, when for 290 you can get the real thing. Not too sentimental, but still nice to look at & probably a great investment. The dealer quoted me 436 to sell & 421 Cdn to buy ( about 3.5% ) . Does that seem like a reasonable spread? I'd be interested to know if others are experiencing a long wait for AU coins. Just bought some BGR Prec metals fund today. Maybe my timing is good for a change.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:06 - ID#252150)
Karlito IMF B.S.
You said "were it not for the IMF Mexico would be in a depression". 90% of the people in Mexico are in a depression. A worse depression now than they were in 20 yrs ago. Unfortunately the same fate is probably in store for the Asian Countries. They will manage to save the big U.S. banks & their investors though. Hardly an altruistic act.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:09 - ID#24095)
@poison pill?
Interesting development with Barrick on possible future takeovers...Is this innocent or does it portend anything?

Barrick Gold - Rights Plan -2: Subject To Holder Approval

TORONTO ( Dow Jones ) --Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ) said its board has adopted a shareholder rights plan "designed to encourage the fair treatment of its shareholders in connection with any takeover."

In a news release, Barrick said the plan will provide shareholders with more time to fully consider any unsolicited takeover bid and will allow the company's board to pursue other alternatives, if appropriate, to maxmize shareholder value.

Barrick said it will seek shareholder approval for the plan at its annual meeting, currently scheduled to be held on May 12. It said the plan, which would be in effect until the 2002 shareholders' meeting, wasn't adopted in response to any specific proposal to acquire control of the company, and noted it isn't aware of any such proposal.

The company said the rights plan is similar to plans approved by shareholders of other Canadian companies.

Barrick Gold is a gold mining company.

"Dow Jones News Service"
"Copyright ( c ) 1997, Dow Jones & Company, Inc."

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:10 - ID#287367)
@ 223
Good evening! I liked the gold and silver's action this week. $6.80 silver and $310-320 gold possibly before year end. Remember I said to buy ABX at the market when it was $16 and it would see at least $19? We've retraced back from the 50-day average at $19, and should rocket to $21-22 soon! I predict ABX will be back at $30 within the next 12 months.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:10 - ID#57232)
BIS was usual site for CB gold sales
CMax: Did you see Veneroso's comment that until recently CB gold sales were handled discretely at the BIS? ANOTHER did say that as well! Another thing Veneroso said was that this time gold sales were done outside the BIS ( LBMA? -- doesn't say ) , and that the brokers were often left high and dry -- with promises of more gold from the CB's that never materialized. Apparently many brokers lost money, according to FV.

I enjoyed another point FV made - that he does not consider gold oversold! Rather, he considers something else alltogether differently, namely ( reading between the lines ) that the CB's just oversupplied gold and pushed the market way down. He also thinks that investment demand for gold will not pick up for some time, but we will have a gold rally anyway ( possibly a big one ) simply becuse gold has been pushed down so much. If I understand correctly, he is not clear on why the CB's sold their gold outside the BIS, and why they sold so much of it. He also said that the managers of the Bank of Switzerland actually wanted to sell gold -- because they saw it as a non-producing asset -- but that the average Swiss would never approve gold sales anyway. Now if the Swiss bankers feel this way about gold, that could explain the CB gold sales in other countries. I liked one other point, and that is -- that although EURO gold will stay in the respective country ( except 15%? ) the EURO CB will make all decisions about buying and selling gold, not the member country. I wonder if this has been approved by the general european public. I doubt if that would ber permitted in the UK or the USA. ( I wonder -- do we really have any gold in Ft Knox, anyway? )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:13 - ID#35767)
Investment Intelligence bullishness on SILVER as of tuesday dropped to 45% from 67% the previous week. Interesting to see increasing disbelief as the silver market's rally. In '95 when silver was here the same report showed 82% bullishness. Gold is keeping investors bearish on silver versus the other way around as near the top in 1979-80 when silver was the catalyst for gold. In 1979-80 Gold reacted to silver in spite of record supply and double digit interest rates. Gold was wrong then in reacting. Is it wrong now in not reacting. Notice how silver PMs are not reacting to silver but really reacting to gold. Looks like the opposite of 1980.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:14 - ID#24095)
@ Barrick Gold
Crystal Ball: I hope you're right on Barrick...but based on more Central Bank selling? Loss in Dollar vis-a-vis other currencies...coming of Euro?

The Hatt
(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:18 - ID#294232)
The Canuck Buck is getting ready to play havoc with a false economy and
the people of Canada have not figured it out yet! The real estate market
in Vancouver has now crossed the line and joined the ranks of the
depreciating assets and the sale of large ticket items have come to a
standstill. The Canadian Government along with the press would have us
believe that everything is fine and our lifestyles would most certainly
improve in 1998.
Over the last three weeks we have seen three rate hikes the last being
33 basis points and our dollar is back to where it started after three
I keep telling people to position themselves in gold or gold stocks as I
believe it will be the only safe haven. Most choose to listen to the
government through media and laugh at my honest concerns for the future
of paper assets. The Dow gave us a preview of things to come and it will
be interesting to hear the analysts touting their buy on dips deception
when the hoards of rookie mutual fund holders wake up one morning to a
BEEN HOLDERS OF NIKE!!!!!!! Have a great weekend everyone and trust your
judgement, THE MUSIC HAS STOPPED!!!!!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:29 - ID#26669)
You're right about ABX, at least in the very short term. I never did buy any. ( On the one hand, he who hesitates is lost but on the other, Mr. Klinton's new way of scrambling the capital gains tax law makes long term profits longer...a lot can happen in 18 months and thus the risks for a mere 100% gain seem exceedingly high. ) What do you think of TVX?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:32 - ID#341214)
Cherokee: 5.07 to 5.12 basis Mar 98 is a little too restful for me at this point. I think Lady Silver has a couple of legs up left before we go back that far. At this point I'm looking to bounce off of 5.80 before the next upleg and I'll agree with Crystal Ball that it might be in the 6.80 area but now sure when.


(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:37 - ID#227238)
Cherokee: Alas, the flesh is willing but the inspiration is lacking. Perhaps if you and Ted could spare the bowl a moment ...... Besides, you 'n T1 are in fine form.

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:39 - ID#287367)
Just one word ( NOT "plastics" ) - Intuition. Look at ABX's monthly chart and you might get a feeling for what my "gut" is telling me.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:41 - ID#364147)
Just surfin the net and what do I read
Hey Earl what's this bowl sh!t?????....go carpenters~~~~~~~~~

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:45 - ID#287367)
@ 223
TVX looks good. Could run to 6 1/2

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:49 - ID#287367)
@ 223
I would not agree that "he who hesitates is lost." Opportunity lost perhaps, but there are always more just around the corner. I would say, "He who hesitates.......waits."

(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:50 - ID#364147)
A question for CherOkee
My friend: Have you ever exhaled?????????????

(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:53 - ID#252150)
Cherokee's zenophobic, uninformed B.S.
As a Canadian I get more than a little tired of you ranting & raving about our terrible economy. Especially, always mentioning us in the same sentence as Mexico. Have you ever heard of Nortel? How about Bombardier? Or how about Ballard Power Systems, in which Ford just made a 700 million dollar investment. These are just 3 of our world class hi tech & industrial companies.To constantly compare us with a 3rd world Country
is not only an insult, but reveals your zenophobia & ignorance. This fiscal year we will have a budget surplus. BTW, not only do we have more oil & gas than you, but more importantly, much more fresh water. When your arid areas such as Vegas & Phoenix start to run out of it, you will realize just how valuable a commodity it is.
I'm always astounded when I see the U.S. mentioned as a rich Country. How many trillions in debt are you up to now? Also, have you ever wondered why it took a Canadian Co. to sponsor what is no doubt by far the best investment site on the WWW.
BTW, thanks Bart.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:54 - ID#210114)
tolerant1 is Intolerant
RE: Tolerant's 16:30 post; This is is supposed to be an information line for those who are interested in precious metals, not a line for abuse. Please cease and desist from such insults. If you disagree about gold price predictions etc, then do it with respect.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:56 - ID#210114)
16:47 MoReGoLd
Does that mean that this page is only for Auric Fascists??

(Fri Dec 19 1997 19:59 - ID#364147)
@ Sweet Baby JAMES
James: you ever heard of Cape Breton????????????????????

(Fri Dec 19 1997 20:01 - ID#348286)
The HATT: I agree the dollar will be under presure for some time. Im not sure how Canadian Gold stocks will be affected though. Some may not want to buy any stocks in a country with a weak currency.
The fact that canada sold off most of it's Gold doesn't help either.
Looks like we're following on the footsteps of Australia.
No-one mentions the most volatile and troublesome issue however,
This demon could surface anytime and embroyle Canada in a constitutional crisis.
The majority of french Quebecers would vote to separate, but are held back by the 20-25% English etc that want nothing to do with seperatism. Not sure how much longer they can hold the fort.
P.S. For anyone not knowing the rediculousness of the situation in Quebec, this incident happened recently.
A jewish gravestone maker was visited by the Quebec language police,
and told to take down a bilingual French/Yiddish sign that had been there for 50 years, or be charged with violating the French language laws.
The language minister intervened only after an uproar by the local english media.
Yes folks, this is actually happening just north of the US border........

(Fri Dec 19 1997 20:05 - ID#215208)
We are living in interesting times. Anyone disagree?

Silver: The trend is obviously up! The only question is, do we consider silver to be in a channel going up at a reasonable 40% per year, with a temporary breakout as we had with platinum and palladium due to squeezes, or can we really believe silver is a new channel heading up at a raging 130%/year.

Platinum: I don't know. I'm inclined to leave the channel the way it is, and blame the breakout on some yet unnamed cause. Platinum has recovered and is back in the -80% channel. The Yen really gives no clues. The trend in the Yen is indeterminate at the moment.

Palladium: Finally catching up with platinum. Although the steep decline has been interrupted, it has a long ways to fall before it catches up with platinum. It definitely seems weaker than platinum at the moment. I've moved the channel bottom up for now, but my guess is palladium will drop faster than this channel predicts.

Gold: POSSIBLE TREND REVERSAL! Yes, I know, gold has barely managed to reach the upper border of the steep -80% downward channel. HOWEVER, for five days in a row the weighted basket of currencies of gold buying countries have gone up vs. the dollar. And the price of gold in US$ has tracked it right up. This is the first time since FEBRUARY 1996 that this "world gold currency" has gone up vs. the dollar to this extent. Yes, of course, this recovery is barely a blip in the overall drop of the world gold currency, and, yes, it could reverse again. And it may just be a recovery from the recent steep drop, and then will again resume its relentless downward trend. However, if the world gold currency just makes a V-bottom, reversing again after it reaches its longer term downward trend line, gold will rally with it, reaching $310-315 sometime around late January, early February. In my opinion, this is quite a likely scenario ... and it can get much better than this, if other factors positive to gold kick in! In anticipation of gold continuing its recent rally, I show a possible channel bottom, at a 130%/year slope, as silver is currently moving.

EB - Proceed with extreme caution!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 20:15 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton
MoReGoLd ( 20:01 ) Great post!! The 'frogs' should have NEVER been givin the option of even thinking of leaving Canada----Trying to be so diplomatic= Shooting yourself in the foot!!

Crystal Ball
(Fri Dec 19 1997 20:20 - ID#287367)
@ DJ
Always find your charts and commentary interesting. Keep 'em comin'! I have just finished reading the tea leaves. The dollar ( as Veneroso said ) is as overvalued today as it was in 1985. There will be a concerted effort to drive the dollar down. I see short term interest rates ( US ) moving LOWER. US 30-year Bonds are getting exhausted and have almost reached their goal of 5.75% The March T Bond Future contract will top out at historic resistance around 122. Crude oil and gold are bottoming. Platinum is a screaming buy right now; Palladium will underperform his big brother. I'm trading in all my junk silver for 1 oz Platinum coins tomorrow morning.

Emerald Heights
(Fri Dec 19 1997 20:23 - ID#227311)
system test.
system test

(Fri Dec 19 1997 20:27 - ID#252150)
Ted, have you ever heard of the ozarks.
Actually I was stationed at the radar base in Sydney from 64 to 66. Although there a lot of pretty places in Cape Breton, I would'nt put Sydney on the list. I can remember driving by the coke plant in the middle of winter, with the steam & whatever pollutants, it was something like Dante's inferno. I had some good times there. My son was born there & I started playing the silly game of golf there. I don't know how many thousands of hrs I've spent on golf courses since & now my handicap is going in the wrong direction. I much prefer the island I'm on now. No winter to speak of. Especially this winter with El Nino. We we're golfing in shirt sleeves last week. I was quite happy to leave Cape Breton in 1966. I got transferred to Montreal. What a difference. They had a night life in those days that was second to none, & did'nt mind the Anglos.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 20:30 - ID#293211)
Just sold off some land $20,000 to play with
Does anyone have a spin on US Global Investors Fund group, looking at
US world gold fund or US Gold Shares Fund?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 20:30 - ID#257148)
Warrior 2 warrior
Oh Yes, the depth of feeling, Quebec v ROC. All it will take is one Oui vote for separation, meanwhile anglophones are leaving Quebec no? Madness, how did you let it happen Canada? I'm not trying to mess internally, much of part of my family used to live in Montreal, it cuts me up to see and hear what is going on...What was it Sun Tzu said?

"Those skilled in war subdue the enemy's army without battle. They capture his cities without assaulting them and overthrow his state without protracted operations.."

(Fri Dec 19 1997 20:34 - ID#364147)
James.....and ain't it a small world
Luckily I'm on the ocean between Port Morien and Mira Gut and Sydney is a half hour away....One of the most warped societies I've ever run across...and I've been 'around'----what Island do you live on ( let me guess,Vancouver Isl..... )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 20:39 - ID#364147)
@ Aurator
Canada let 'it' happen by tryin to be to fair and diplomatic---again,their leaving should NEVER have been an option in the first place!!....Increasingly Canada is operating in a 'north-south' fashion and not east-west.....

(Fri Dec 19 1997 20:46 - ID#364147)
@ BOXING(not gold related)...if offended scroll on by~~~~~~~~
Hey Vronsky,Disney and any other boxin fans---there's a good one on HBO in 12 minutes!!.....Kevin Kelly ( NYC boy ) versus Hammed ( sp? ) from England via some Arab country......

(Fri Dec 19 1997 20:51 - ID#215208)
Crystal Ball - I long ago stopped trying to decide when things are overvalued and undervalued. I'm just not that smart. I now just look at the trends. They are what they are. For instance, I just returned from a trip to Canada. With the Canadian dollar hitting record lows, I was told Canadians still cross the border into the US to buy things cheap. You figure it out.

"Platinum is a screaming buy!" - True ... if platinum goes up, not down. Less than a year ago, the spread between platinum and gold was zero. The spread has recently broken through support around $80. Could it go to zero? Seems like it could. Industrial demand can weaken in Asia. Who knows, I just try to follow the trends, and concentrate on finding ways to recognize changes as early as possible. Right now, I look to the currencies for confirmation.

I'm glad you find my charts and comments interesting. I still consider myself a rank amateur. Its comforting to know that my ramblings are resonating.

Happy trades.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 21:08 - ID#22650)
Oh, Canada
I would agree with James. As an american, I find much to be desired in Canada and the Canadian people. They have had their stupid fling with socialism in the Trudeau's, and to their credit are fashioning for themselves a future by trying to earn their way out of debt. We americans have still not learned the lessons of the failure of collectivist politics by the so-called leaders we still choose. I think that there might be some wisdom behind the madness of a weak currency. Has it ocurred to many people that since Canada is an export-oriented country that they need a weaker currency in view of the Asian debacle to remain competitive? Can you imagine how this situation is going to impact competition with the u.s.? Canada is no Mexico. Canada is not joke. I have been up there four times in the last year and have been impressed by their citizenry. They are a nation of immigrants, but at least have the sense to screeen their future citizens for their potential and not create a future welfare class like we do in the u.s. Their immigrants will be better for the experience and the country will be better off as a whole. Since this is a gold-bug site, I am sure that many of you can appreciate the future of Canada when real money and hard assets take their rightful place after this corruption has run its course. I would say that Canada has a brighter future than most countries. Now if only they could do something about winter....

(Fri Dec 19 1997 21:08 - ID#22650)
I would agree with James. As an american, I find much to be desired in Canada and the Canadian people. They have had their stupid fling with socialism in the Trudeau's, and to their credit are fashioning for themselves a future by trying to earn their way out of debt. We americans have still not learned the lessons of the failure of collectivist politics by the so-called leaders we still choose. I think that there might be some wisdom behind the madness of a weak currency. Has it ocurred to many people that since Canada is an export-oriented country that they need a weaker currency in view of the Asian debacle to remain competitive? Can you imagine how this situation is going to impact competition with the u.s.? Canada is no Mexico. Canada is not joke. I have been up there four times in the last year and have been impressed by their citizenry. They are a nation of immigrants, but at least have the sense to screeen their future citizens for their potential and not create a future welfare class like we do in the u.s. Their immigrants will be better for the experience and the country will be better off as a whole. Since this is a gold-bug site, I am sure that many of you can appreciate the future of Canada when real money and hard assets take their rightful place after this corruption has run its course. I would say that Canada has a brighter future than most countries. Now if only they could do something about winter....

(Fri Dec 19 1997 21:11 - ID#31868)
Dearest Spock;
You are that which I despise. You are a pig without bones.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 21:18 - ID#372344)
@South Africa Still No1 In Political Uncertainty !!!!
This week former apartheid President P.W. Botha refused to comply
for the third time with a subpoena to appear at the Truth & Recon
Commission, even after pleadings from the now President Mandela
and threats of inprisonment for years if he did not appear. Attempts
to reconcile the Blacks & Whites there are souring by the minute. Botha
has until Jan. 03,98 to appear or respond. Many Whites will no doubt view any imprisonment of Botha as threat and many Blacks will view
no imprisonment as the Whites always getting their away, i.e a NO
WIN situation. This form SA. Pres. Mandela himself to the next generation of Blacks ( 1/2 of them under 15 years ) warning them
that the" White leopard has not changed his spots"He also warned
that the Whites were planning a Sabotage of the Economy if they
did not get their way. Whites small minority about 1/5 still hold most
key post in Finance and Military. IMHO Mr. Mandela has been a
saint like figure, and was able to the country together, Mr. Mbeki
the new President will be under increasing pressure from Unions
and ordinary Blacks for concessions from the whites, for housing
electricity etc... Crime is so rampant that the Whites are demanding
the return of the death penalty. Although I had originally predicted
tribal war there by 1999, I believe that they might hold off
for another year or two maybe before it happens which should allow
some hadsome returns on the historically underpriced SA Gold shares
but one should watch SA closely for any sign of PU's. IMHO the
Whites are not going to give up power easily and Mr. Botha's
response is an important indicatior of the Struggle ahead.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 21:20 - ID#424187)
Pagoda OH USA
As a proud Canadian, thankyou for your warm words .But I still think we are to easy on the Immigrants and have Much to learn from the US .My forefathers were pointed to the west and told to go get it .Thats ALL .Now it is a FAR different story .To much WELFARE .To keep everybody happy GO GOLD, GO GOLD so that I can retire in the GREAT USof A where it is warm all the TIME Florida Texas .Ideas for an old Canuck who just wants peace and solitude.


(Fri Dec 19 1997 21:20 - ID#9385)
@beamer, RE: BEMA
A fellow kitco lurker mentioned he read a posting of yours and suggested that you might have insight on BEMA stock, earnings, reserves, production costs, etc. If by chance you review this posting I would appreciate any insight. I have acquired physical gold, maxing out my storage, hence I am looking for greater multiples from a Gold Stock.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 21:27 - ID#344308)

mon frer'-------do not attack the messenger, attack the message.

the shining examples you listed are just that.

what about canada and her debt? do you know the credit
rating of her debt? absolutely horrible! the ratio is
so high as to be il-liquid.

the comparison between mexico and canada is relative
to their FINANCIAL CONDITION ONLY! no other allusions
were made or intended. canada and mexico are in dire
straights. period. one of the two will succumb in the near
future due to the policies of the curriencies' taskmasters. this
no more reflects upon you, than what is happening to stocks
reflecting upon me. we are riding the same wave together,
with probably the same goals. my perception is uniquely
my own and i'll relate all that's relative, regardless of whose
feelings may be hurt due to a relative cultural
fiscal we have had in the us ever since the fed
was formed.

i report the facts. if they are dis-concerting, or un-believable,
grab a search engine and check the facts for your-self.

canada is probably going to hell in a handbasket BEFORE mexico! ( financially speaking!! ) imm

the us is going to follow shortly AFTER mexico! see, we are
together, again!! howdy partner!! --how-bout-a-bowl-of-peaches??

cherokee!; ) ----telling-the-truth-----and-looking-for-more---bbrs

(Fri Dec 19 1997 21:30 - ID#31868)
Geoff and Pagoda
My neck is larger than your thighs, we watch and we laugh. The anger of the ages is not well suited to those that hide.

That is why we are here.

We are more than glad to laugh, our's is a true happiness.

The end is the stupidity of those who want more than life has to offer.

If you understand or if you don't, the eyes of truth are watching you...

(Fri Dec 19 1997 21:32 - ID#372344)
@ pagoda ,CANADA is the BEST!!!!
A little fact that is rarely mentioned here is that CANADA is a very rich
RESOURCE based counrty too many to list here, ( could it be that is
why the CDN$ is down, has anybody looked at the price of resources lately ) but since this is a GOLD site CANADA sits on some of the largest
potential GOLD deposits known ( not to mention OIL ) if only the Gov.
here would stop cowing to the US and back their CDN$ with Gold
( which at some point I expect to happen ) and promote exploration
and development of their Gold fields. I purposely did not go into any
of the many many wonderful things about CANADA, as I said this is
a Gold site. Pls excuse my biased display of patriotism.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 21:44 - ID#344308)
canada is cool if you like socialization, and fractionation,
and a financial diaspora second to none.

the us is catching-up quickly........

it is the politicians, not you or i, not you or i.


(Fri Dec 19 1997 21:45 - ID#25588)
Stock Market Bears - This is worth reading
I posted this a few months ago, I think it's worth reading again. Based on this we should hit 9500 some time next year.
Taken from Sy Harding's Street Market Report:"Coming up for 1998 is the most
dependable market static we have ever run
across. It is this: Without exception, from whatever is the market low in the 2nd year
of every Presidential term since 1914,
the market has gained an average of 52% to its high in the following year. This
positive action has taken place in every
Administration, regardless of which party is in power, in war or peace, in boom times
or recession, in overvalued markets or
undervalued markets. The most recent occurrence, the 1995 market rally, also
confirmed the reliability of this indicator.
1994 was the 2nd year of the first Clinton term. From the Dow's low of 3593 on 4/4/94
to its high the following year ( at
5216 on 12/13/95 ) , the gain was 45%. 1998 will be the 2nd year of this

(Fri Dec 19 1997 21:48 - ID#280222)
mining stocks
JOHN DISNEY: If you had 10k & wanted to invest it in a good mining stock, where would you put Thank you.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 21:56 - ID#401183)
APH...the worm has turned!!!!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:00 - ID#401183)
APH...the worm has turned!!!!
Forget about Sy Harding's Street Market Report and all other predictive historical treatises on
stock market historical trends and directions. 1997 has shown that the first time in a long time
the market ended on a positive note in a calendar year ending in "7". Historically most have
ended negative or flat.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:16 - ID#34883)
x 0.031 103 476 8
US Dollars currently trading at about 9 per 1.00 gram of gold, Kitco time.

Those Dollars, the more you purchase the more expensive they get.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:23 - ID#30116)
General stock market
Judging by the comments of the market pundits today, you would of thought that the stock market did good by losing only ninety points, today. What about the 110.9 points lost yesterday? And how does deflation suddenly become everybodies best friend? ( Sorry 'Buddy' )

Let's not mention the 250+ point drop this morning. That was just a 'blip' thing. :- ) )

Is it time to be selling the rallies? I have to do something between gold rallies..... :- ) )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:23 - ID#398105)
TZADEAK...........South Africa

G'day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

Your comments concerning South Africa are "on the ball". I lived in Africa for 10 years; Zambia 3 years, South Africa one year, and Namibia/South West Africa for 6 years. I personally do not think that South Africa will ever "come right", it is a SHOCKER of a place to live in. The Afrikaner Boer will not roll over.........

Aye Haggis

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:27 - ID#401183)
TZADEAK: Kruggerand Fire Sale!!!!!
South African unrest and uncertainty equates to continual disfavor and lower prices for out of favor South African Kruggerands
to levels not seen since the days of apartheid. Only negative is the accompanied paper trail to one's door upon
purchase and delivery. Kruggerands viewed as bullion and not numismatic, but you know that. Still holding Kruggerands purchased during apartheid for $300.00 @.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:30 - ID#220247)
Commercial short positions keep going higher every week. Does anybody know if this is now a record for this contract? For sure these guys are not seeing much imbalance between supply and demand...Check it out at

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:33 - ID#30116)
O2 sensors and Dow...........
I just bought an oxygen sensor for the vehicle today, cost was $90. Boy that platinum and rare earth stuff is expensive! Below is the weekly Dow and percent gain charted.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:34 - ID#25588)
The worm hasn't turned amywhere yet. It's just ziging and zaging for a few months.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:42 - ID#30116)
CRB / XAU ratio chart

Mo in To
(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:44 - ID#347205)
Oh Canada! Your 18:17 etc.

I could not let your astute observations of the Canuck financial scenario pass without comment ( much as you may wish that I would, being a lurker and all ) However, I do find myself in agreement with you re: Canada and the debt. We have wrassled the "deficit" into temporary submission through banque du canuck low interest rates and through our strong trade pix in the past few years. BUT THE FACT REMAINS, that despite M. Croutin's bluster and Paul Martin's kingly aspirations, but we are in worse straits now. Exports are down considerably ( I forget the horrific numbers published today ) and the Bank of Canada is caught between a rock and a hard place ( or shall I say harlot..apologies to those esteemed ladies ) If interest rates continue to rise, the "fiscal dividend" will be history, the deficit will mushroom. In turn this will add to our unhealthy national debt ( said debt having been conveniently been forgotten lately. If rates don't go up, the dollar will sink even further than today's close of .69. So what to do?

As for me, I am hanging onto my physical gold and am trying to hunt down some Maple Leafs ( which are hard to come by in Toronto as well ) . We do, indeed, live in interesting times!

Any comments?

Mo in To

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:47 - ID#290271)
@Crystal Ball
Yikes on the PanPac buys! Looks like you did OK. Hang on to those babies and perhaps the next 12-24 months will be kind to you. In the meantime, they make great "parlor" ice-breakers! [G] Cruise on over to and see if there is anything there that will wet your whistle! ( yeah, I know it's a cheap plug..... ) :- ) )

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:51 - ID#344308)
aph------that cyclic event is impressive

one consideration however, the ab-normal
'extra'-cyclic event of the last 7 years.
this huge run-up, un-matched in history,
imm, is a much more powerful force than
your afore-mentioned event. it has yet
to finish expending the energy generated, and
the rippple effect is in-calculable. consider
what to expect from what is a sure bet.....

for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction!!!
isaac newton

this LAW is immutable and takes no prisoners! make no mistake,
the coming 'correction' will be just as bad, as the 'run-up' was

physics drives markets, the reaction ( contraction ) due to
the un-natural action ( expansion last 7 yrs ) is going
to be as un-natural and mind-blowing as
the original action!!!!!!! eh...well....ok.......what the hell?

cherokee!; ) ---must've-inhaled------% )

Mo in To
(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:51 - ID#347205)
"If only they could do something about winter....."

They have, it's called El Nino!

Mo in To

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:52 - ID#224149)
Star cruiser's and Aliens searching for red skin apples?Gold 198 in 98 .Away to spend Expensive American Dollars.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:53 - ID#401183)
May have spoken too soon. Maybe 1997 will end flat or negative based on historical trend for calendar years ending in "7". Still a few trading days left . But Mr. GREENSPAN will just pull the plug and suspend trading as on dark Monday a few weeks ago! HISTORY PROVES WE LEARN NOTHING FROM HISTORY. Credit for the preceding comment to some German guy some time back.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:54 - ID#286199)
The game, the players, the size of the pot....
December 19, 1997

Stock Fund Investors Retreat
For a Second Straight Week

Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK -- Investors retreated slightly from stock
funds for the second week in a row in the period
ended Wednesday, according to figures released
Friday by AMG Data Services.

Stock funds had net outflows of $985 million in the
week, which saw continued volatility in the U.S. stock
market. That followed the previous week's $1.26
billion in outflows, AMG said.

Money market funds were hard hit, recording an
$11.66 billion outflow for the week. That marked their
weakest period since the week ended April 30, when
investors pulled $17.72 billion out of the funds.

The bad news followed two huge weeks of inflows
into the conservative money funds. Investors put
$9.55 billion into money funds in the previous week
and $12.86 billion the week before.

Taxable bond funds continued their steady inflows in
the latest period, but just barely, pulling in a net $55
million. They pulled in $1.33 billion the week before.

Municipal bond funds continued their recent pattern of
alternating inflows and outflows, this week pulling in
$355 million. Last week, municipals had a $431
million outflow.

AMG, based in Arcata, Calif., said the 5,151 stock
funds it tracks had $2 trillion in assets as of Dec. 17.
The 1,525 money market funds had $1.06 trillion, the
2,871 taxable bond funds had $655.5 billion, and the
2,042 municipal bond funds had $273.8 billion.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 22:55 - ID#30116)
Dow volatility
Below is a chart of the volatility of the dow along withn the dow itself. A common argument for the wide price swings is that the swings only represent some small percentage of the Dow. The volatility indicator is telling a slightly different story. Today saw high volume trading. This will be blamed on the triple witch. Remember that we set record volume on the 1,000 point swing of 1.2 billion shares only a couple of months ago. Investors ( fund investors ) are becoming inured to these swings.

How does one cook a frog? Place the frog in a pot of cold water and SLOWLY turn up the heat...

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:01 - ID#23195)
John Disney
I bought shares recently from S African company:FREE STATE CONSOLIDATED
GOLD MINES ltd NASDAQ FSCNY .I think it is safe investment and there
will probebly be big gaines in near least I hope

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:02 - ID#344308)

the condition of our northern neighbors is extremely
troubling and impossible to reverse due to the
world-wide chaos. the spiel put-out by the major
networks is 'managed' to keep as many people out
of the 'loop' as possible until sh!t hits the fan.
the only way we can prepare is to be aware, buy plenty
of silver and gold COINS, and use YOUR OWN EYES, AND

what are the maple leafs going for in your area?
i need to find a place to pick-up silver peso
or maple leaf 1oz for small premium above spot.
anyone know where??'s-me

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:06 - ID#22650)
For the time being, the money is not in the metals The current upheaval is a war that is being fought with currency. When it is all over, when currency has once agains been exposed as the fraud it has become, then, and only then will the ultimate winner be declared: gold and other pm.and other things of real wealth. Unfortunately at that time the world will be a vastly different place from the relatively "comfortable" circumstances we enjoy now. But I can imagine a time, after this catharsis, when we can emerge into a truly golden ( no pun intended ) age, and money will not be the controlling factor of our behavior as it is now. Gold will be appreciated for its inherent values as a metal, its beauty and its representation of wealth. But we will have gone past the point where it serves the primitive function of money.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:06 - ID#220247)
Canadian National Debt
I tried to look for the Canadian National Debt at and was surprised to read the following: "The Canada National Debt Clock is no longer available. I shut down the clock because obtaining accurate figures to keep it properly calibrated became impossible. It seems to me that the Canadian Government isn't particularily forthcoming with honest, complete, consistent figures."

For the US National Debt you can go to and be frightened for the rest of your life.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:07 - ID#272349)
Futures Traders
Does anybody here trade futures? I have been short gold until about two weeks ago. I went long yesterday at the close. The action was good today. It moved up at the end of trading which I generally consider a good sign, especially going into a weekend. We ended up with the first decent weekly candlestick in months. I may get stopped out of this position a couple of times, buy I think we've seen the bottom. Does anyone concur?


(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:10 - ID#30116)
Gold on the weekly chart
Gold had a nice little bounce this week, contrary to Louie's comments this evening.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:11 - ID#286199)
Several months ago I researched Mexican silver. I bought some "Libertads" from Blanchard in New Orleans, but also got a response ( posted below ) from a vendor in Mexico. I haven't had time to pursue this and I am partial to the Eagles myself, but I offer it as a beginning point. These are sight unseen dealers, so caveat emptor applies.

From El Mundo de la Moneda
"An ONZA is any silver coin that weighs 31.103 grams regardless of its alloy. The modern so-called Libertads are onzas of pure silver.
The 1996 changed design is also issued in both mint ( Bullion ) and Proof
versions in 1/20, 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, 1, 2 and 5 ounces.

I do not mail coins outside of Mexico, only paper money.

In the U.S. I recommend to you the following dealers:"

1 ) Richard Parker
P.O.Box 11121
Albuquerque, New Mexico
U.S.A. 87192
Telephone: ( 505 ) 299-0402
Fax: ( 505 ) 299-5811

2 ) Jed Crump
"Pat Johnson & Rare Coin Co."
2486 Times Blvd. - Suite A
Houston, Texas 77005-3241
Telephone: ( 713 ) 529-4995
Fax: ( 713 ) 528-7618

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:15 - ID#401183)
Gold Coin Source.
cherokee..........try GOBRECHT NUMISMATICS, Silver Spring, MD............1-800-322-0098........Quality Merchandise..........No high pressure sales pitch for numismatic issues, will sell bullion.........Timely Delivery!!!!! .....Discount Rates!!!!!!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:16 - ID#30116)
KCTrader -- 100 day moving average is $314. Until we hit that, I don't think there is too much risk here. Then again, all that we need to see is another CB sale announcement or a posting by Another, and you know what happens then...

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:22 - ID#347332)
TO KCTrader;
You're a good ladd shorting gold. But Long is better now. I am also
slowly turning bullish on Au ( 17 year low ) . $270 probably be the
lowest IMHO.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:23 - ID#229300)
gold January effect?
I was wondering, will the January effect apply to the price of gold?
I think last week's Barrons mentioned that, on average, gold purchased
about now and sold in the spring normally results in a respectable

Also, will the CBs call their gold loans if the gold price rises abrubtly?

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:24 - ID#335190)
Barrick Gold @ Sharks & Minnows
Friday, December 19, 1997
Barrick adds poison pill as defences
Board approves a defence plan against hostile takeovers

By PAUL BAGNELL .............Mining Reporter The Financial Post
With its share price at a four-and-a-half-year low, Barrick Gold Corp. began arming itself against hostile takeover bids yesterday. The board of directors has approved a poison pill plan that would enable shareholders to buy Barrick shares at 50% of their market price if there is an unauthorized bid for at least 20% of the company's shares.

Barrick said it is not aware of any move by outsiders to gain control of the company. The shares ( ABX/TSE ) closed yesterday at $26.15, down 20, and have traded recently at their lowest level since April 1993. Like other gold stocks, they have been hammered by the sinking price of gold.

Analysts doubted a takeover plan for Barrick is in the works in the boardrooms of other big international mining companies. Barrick is probably taking the step mainly as a signal to shareholders it considers its current share price to be too low, they said.

"This is like the shark saying I need some protection in case the minnows want to eat me," Flores said.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:25 - ID#344308)

great chart!!

today on cnbc an analyst from lehman sherson? stated in
response to---

"do you think the volatility today is due to triple witching?"
cnbc talking head

"no, i belive it is due to the asian currency problems, because
they have more to go before it is sorted out."

there is 'a lot more to go', and miles to ride before i sleep....

cherokee!;--amongst-the-stars---starstuff--starstuff all---

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:29 - ID#364147)
@ Panda
Don't you know anything? -90 is now an up day!!

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:30 - ID#335190)
Friday, December 19, 1997
Kemess mine saved by US$45M injection

By PETER KENNEDY ...........Vancouver Bureau The Financial Post
Royal Oak Mines Inc. has secured a US$45-million cash injection needed to complete construction at its Kemess, B.C., gold-copper project.

Royal Oak said yesterday the funds will come from the sale of senior secured notes to a group of institutions it declined to name. Headed by chief executive Margarert Witte, Royal Oak is known for trying to turn around high-cost mines acquired for bargain basement prices. But the recent slide in the price of gold, which yesterday traded down US$2.10 at US$287.20 an ounce in New York, has put the company under severe pressure.

Without a cash infusion, it was feared Royal Oak might not survive until its new low-cost Kemess project starts production in April. "This is just what they needed,'' said Catherine Gignac, a gold mining analyst with Deacon Capital Corp. in Toronto. The stock ( RYO/TSE ) fell 5 to $1.96 yesterday.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:30 - ID#335190)
Friday, December 19, 1997
Kemess mine saved by US$45M injection

By PETER KENNEDY ...........Vancouver Bureau The Financial Post
Royal Oak Mines Inc. has secured a US$45-million cash injection needed to complete construction at its Kemess, B.C., gold-copper project.

Royal Oak said yesterday the funds will come from the sale of senior secured notes to a group of institutions it declined to name. Headed by chief executive Margarert Witte, Royal Oak is known for trying to turn around high-cost mines acquired for bargain basement prices. But the recent slide in the price of gold, which yesterday traded down US$2.10 at US$287.20 an ounce in New York, has put the company under severe pressure.

Without a cash infusion, it was feared Royal Oak might not survive until its new low-cost Kemess project starts production in April. "This is just what they needed,'' said Catherine Gignac, a gold mining analyst with Deacon Capital Corp. in Toronto. The stock ( RYO/TSE ) fell 5 to $1.96 yesterday.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:37 - ID#372344)
@ Markets.....US$ vs GOLD
Just as I predicted last night the PPT was right in there today up to
their knees in it, and even at its lowest poin -273 Dow Gold bearly
moved. The relationship between US$ and GOLD IMHO is where
the GAME is at.The question then becomes how long can US$ hold up?
As previously posted, the tide is turning against the US$ and begining
to pick up speed. Although the PPT and their "WEAPONS OF MASS DECEPTION' appeared to have transformed an almost 100 point drop
in the dow as a" welcomed event" and a "buying opportunity" the fact remains that for the first time in a number of years Japan Inc. is selling
US$ and announcing they bought GOLD. Let's not forget that the US
has some tens of thousands of troops over there so they do have to
be "polite".But the key IMHO is the anti US sentiment now starting to
develop worldwide, from the middle East ( OIL ) , to Russia, Japan,
Koreas, etc...which would have to manifest itself into acts of violence
against US troops , ( pick your country ) before a substancial decline in US$ confidence and thus a meaningful rise in GOLD. This does not
discount the probability that Gold could easily move to say 315 as the US$ is slightly weakened. This is something like happened in 1979
with the US Hostages in Iran. and the US loss of partial influence
on Oil there. I would look for US problems in:

2.Saudi Arabia

In no particular order.China is a very BIG player and I believe that they
are balckmailing the US with threats of devaluation of their external
currency, which would set off yet another spiral ( it was China's original
devaluation of their currency last year that is being blamed for the current
crisis in SE Asia. ) of devaluations all around. So I believe that the US
will have to pay off Russia, China etc... by printing US$ or extending
"credits" I believe the Euros will play a significant role in the coming
years as the US is forced to share the World's "THRONE" as Reserve
Currency with the Euros and the Asians, as the US is forced to become more isolationist, the price of GOLD will soar!!! "The WAR For Gold
will begin"

Haggis & Hossier I wish there was another way out for SA but as you
say the Boers will not roll over.

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:37 - ID#272349)
panda, Mikey

I think the reason for the reversal is in the cost of production. Why would mines forward sell at a loss? I had heard $285 was about the average cost. Without the mine selling to back them up, the CB's will probably have difficulty finding new shorts to lend to. I think if we see the open interest increase we might have a legitimate rally. I find it hard to believe, considering the profits the shorts potentially have in their pocket, they are likely to continue to add to positions in the face of this week's action. Of course it doesn't mean they will square their positions either. Huge incentive for some is the fact that if they can hold on until Jan 1, they won't face 1997 tax liability.


(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:41 - ID#227238)
Panda: That's an interesting plot of volatility. Apparently we are breaking new ground in the matter. I wounder what the natural limit will be? It doesn't seem possible that we will have twice this level of volatility ...... and maintain the sanity of market players.

One possibility, that should result from it, is to raise the premium on options to the point where they lose their function as derivatives ( they become too expensive ) . ... and put a crimp in the options market. That would make sense from anther direction: The developers of the original option model were just awarded a Nobel prize. ie, markets change just as direction becomes widely recognized.

APH: Do you have any thoughts on it??

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:42 - ID#335190)
Mutual Funds @ "They" Canada
Thursday, December 18, 1997
Personal Finance
Broker-author delivers mutual fund wake-up call

By JONATHAN CHEVREAU ........Personal Finance Reporter The Financial Post

When the Dilbert cartoon strip starts poking fun at mutual funds, a newspaper launches a national mutual fund Internet site and an awards gala for star fund managers is created, one has to admit mutual fund mania may be getting a little overblown.

But you would not expect a young stockbroker to be the one to start deflating the balloon. Andy Filipiuk. 34, appears to have stumbled into the dramatic role of his life: the little boy pointing out the emperor is wearing no clothes.

Filipiuk has just published his first book, The Money Management Game, which carries the intriguing subtitle: "What they don't tell you about mutual funds."

"They" refers primarily to the mutual fund companies and most brokers and financial planners, Filipiuk said in an interview, although he hints the news media could also qualify as "they."

"Their goal is to make money for themselves," Filipiuk concludes. "No one can manage your assets better than you can."

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:53 - ID#364147)
@ The End
G'night Earl and all Kitcoites~~~~~~~~~~~~ap

(Fri Dec 19 1997 23:55 - ID#364147)
You too 6 Pak