Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:01 - ID#263133)
Platinum production costs
Can anyone direct me to an informational site that would give information on SA Platinum production costs and how and when they, the SA producers, set their market price, etc.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:08 - ID#398105)
Veneroso....... Gold Publication

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

The GOLD PUBLICATION by Veneroso is due out in January 1998. Could anyone forward me detail as to its full title, ISBN, publisher etc.

I believe that it is WINTER in the Northern Hemisphere, with temperatures dropping - is this a reflection of the markets?! The bulk of GOLD produced in the world comes from the Southern Hemisphere, its SUMMER and the sun is shining ( 40 degress C in Kalgoorlie ) . A reflection of GOLD and an upward trend?!

Must mean something!!!!!!

Aye, Haggis

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:09 - ID#227238)
KC Trader: Agreed. This week did have a bullish tone to it with the makings of a bottoming candlestick pattern. Unfortunately, we had nice candlestick patterns for a bottom in Feb, May, June and Oct. All of which became sucker rallies. Especially the major fizzle in Feb.

Sad to say, that there is a 900 pound gorilla ( 2 L's or 2 R's?? ) that steps up and pees on the parade. Until there is some sign that central bank incontinence has abated, TA of the gold market is a treacherous business ... at best.

To date the only 100% reliable pattern has been the "hanging man" or inverted hammer. Just before another turn down. Ignore it at your peril.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:09 - ID#372344)
@ bej
here is a couple of sights:

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:11 - ID#227238)
KC Trader: As an addendum: If you haven't read it already; please see a post by NJ at 14:44 today. It's lengthy but worth the read.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:11 - ID#339212)
Maple Leaf premium
An earlier post mentioned 6-8 weeks delivery in Vancouver. It seems strange such long delivery with premiums being so low. Has anybody else experienced similar problems?

Maybe the premium on bullion coins will soon go up.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:14 - ID#263133)
Thanx for the response. Say a prayer for $450 Platinum, soon.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:15 - ID#247273)
past, present, future
I have applied thoughts about selling by CB's and the whole debt bubble, and have something to present to kitcoites, mostly in philosophical terms, without numbers. Suppose the debt ( US and also worldwide ) is a mortgage on our future wealth. We mortgage that out as far as we can, until the pain threshold kicks in, especially when we start thinking and talking about our children and grandchildren, so that becomes politically and morally unpalatable. OK, so now maybe we can start selling and loaning out the wealth of the past, i.e., our gold reserves. This is morally objectionable, so we just "loan" it out, respecting our national heritage ( s ) and their accumulated wealth ( our reserves ) , or perhaps we do indeed sell it if we can marginalize the masses and rationalize the irrational. At some point ( time t in the future ) we realize that we are at the future limit ( practical, moral, mathematical ) and the past limit on debt ( run out of gold reserves ) . Now we only have left the present, and oops, now we have to start creating real wealth and paying back what has been loaned. The limit is only the size of those reserves or the size of the future bubble, or a combination of both. I do not know the limits, but it does suggest that mortgages can be future and past. Reminds me of the Dicken's story ( A Christmas Carol ) that conjures the ghosts of Past, Present, Future.

Merry Christmas

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:18 - ID#372344)
@ bej ,You Got It <>

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:26 - ID#335184)
Date line Tokyo SUN. A.M. Dec. 21, 1997.

Camera pans charred remains of hero's lover, then zoom close up to horid facial, then zoom-up to GZ's satisfied grin. GZ steps on financial center district, crushing it flat without taking any apparant notice. AAAAAAARRRRRRRRHGGGGGGGG!!! Cplose up to Hashimoto : "We must call in Rodan to save us." But sir, he is casting his shadow over Asain Tigers surveying by arial reconosence & collecting our debts !
Cut to SOUL.
" Rook, it is RODAN !!!!!! [ repeat same scene as above ]. CUT to each Asaian Tiger capital, repeat same scene: AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRGGGGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!
Hashimoto from bridge of WW II aircraft carrier: " We must recall Rodan at once!!! " But sir it's too late, Asaian Tigers are alredy toasted to a crisp & he has already ravaged our reserves for lunch !!!
"Then ,...theen, we must call on POCKETMONSTER!!!
Camera zoom close up of laser -strobe explosions blaring down on US $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ . Dollars burnining in heaps but keep rising from ashes like Mickey's splintered broomsticks !!!!!
Cut to Gothom: Evil occidental AG look alike ( Ming the Merciless ) , printing Carl Sagen's "Billions & Billions" of Cyber-space Dollars, standing next to hugh contraption device with Jacob's Ladder electrodes spewing crackling bolts of electron energy into thin air behind the velvet curtain of a fabulous Pleasure Dome. With insane laghter & abandon :
"AG AH HA HA HA HA ,... the world is ours & the US $ rules the world ! No longer will the world suffer under the Golden Rule, but The US DOLLAR RULE,, ` He who makes the $s makes the rules !!! AH HAHAHA HA HA!!!
Eventually, Godzilla stomps the horse pooky out of Tokyo & Mantra the butterfly ends our tale of the setting sun by winging across the Pacific to US & sprinkling the dust of the sand man on Ming. All sleep soundly for 15 years.
Roll credits!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:29 - ID#398105)
TZADEAK.... Anti US Sentiment

It is an unfortunate fact of life that there IS strong anti US sentiment around the world. Free markets are fine when they work, but there is in existance two markets - REAL and IMAGIMARY.
The REAL world is the one in which the majority of the world lives and works ( the bulk of persons in it living in poverty - with the exception of the hand picked US/CIA elites ) . The IMAGINARY can only be described as WALL STREET - margins, margins, margins...... futures, futures, futures, derivatives, derivatives, derivatives ..... with localised large annual bonus for the Margin Dealers.
Fortunately for us ALL, GOLD forms part of the REAL world and in the medium to long term will stabilise the world economy. Anyone want to buy a GOLD mine - at this time going cheap, BUT YOU HAD BETTER BE QUICK!!!!!

Aye, Haggis

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:32 - ID#215208)
Sucker rallies
Earl - There is one big, big difference between this rally and the rallies in Feb, May, June and Oct. During this rally the values of the currencies of the gold buyers relative to the US$ are going up. This is the first time this year! During all the other rallies, the combined weighted currecy of gold buyers was continuing to drop, the rallies eventually petered out, then gold dropped further down to follow the currency trend downward. IMHO, a continuation of the rally in these currencies is the key to the continued strength of this rally in gold. I plot the combined currency and watch it very closely.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:35 - ID#225283)
Dow @ 100
Looks like they have done it again....pushed it back down
to a loss of 100 to keep the lemmings calm while they are
all out spending money they do not have...very
interesting...They got it down below how could one have guessed that would be the magic number...because every single time the market has begun to correct the PPT has stepped in and settled the loss to around 100...Like clockwork...PPT should stand for Privateer Plunge Team...after the ol 1700's pirates that had a lic. from the crown to plunder Spanish Ships for their gold....the only problem was that many figured out how easy it was and became rogue...that could never happen today...could it?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:42 - ID#270165)

Well, at least the hanging man was a good signal. I tend to trade from a how many short - how many long position. I try to trade the intermediate term. If I see open interest fall in the midst of a move up from a downtrend, it is likely shorts squaring which can put a floor under the market. Doesn't mean it's going to rally. If I see open interest rising during a move up from a downtrend, it's probably new longs coming in which is what I'm looking for. I've traded a long time and even though this is an old theory I've found it is still the best way to trade the intermediate trend. I've found the volume component to this theory to sometimes be helpful, but watching the trend of the specs is a pretty reliable way to gauge the market.

As to your comment concerning the gorilla. There are some huge traders in the metals markets. They can have an effect in the short and intermediate term but they cannot effect the long term. I've seen much discussion of the role the central banks are playing in the markets. It is probably all true if not worse than I think. This plunge control deal is just an example of the arrogance of this bunch. I believe their attempts here are simply to avoid a huge crash. They'll get better press if it melts down slowly. All these machinations will soon catch up with them resulting in a huge debasement of currencies. They don't have the power they think they have. They have to have someone to lend their gold. I think they're about to have great difficulty finding these people.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:46 - ID#398105)
TZADEAK.... A South African Story

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

Old Cobus Van Der Merwe, an Afrikaner Farmer, went on holiday to Paris in France, first time overseas. He attended a cocktail party with the rich and famous and engaged in conversation with a Frenchman, who asked him.... " Tell me Mr Van der Merwe do the South Africans regard making love to a women as work or play?". After VERY serious consideration Van Der Merwe replied...." Och man, we have a lot in common with you, it MUST be play, cause if it was work we would get our Blacks to do it!!!"
Says something about South Africa, old habits die hard - in more ways than one.
Aye, Haggis

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:48 - ID#270165)

That's great! Where do I get this info?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:54 - ID#227238)
gold weighted currencies.
DJ: That may well be. OTOH, a far larger presence has been unbridled activities of the central banks. I would contend that element alone has been enough to swamp any semblence of normal market action. At the end of the day, the tape rules. If the line drawn on the chart is pointing at your loafers, it must be concluded that the market continues down and one weekly bar will not be enough to warrant whoops 'n shouts. At least not in this wretched business.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:57 - ID#270165)
Private Investor

The great thing about this plunge control outfit is that they are incredibly easy to trade. My daytrading buddy who trades nothing but S&P's and silver is about to retire to the sticks. He's made more bucks in the last year than in the previous three combined. It makes me sick I haven't been paying more attention to stocks. I tend to trade grains, livestock, and metals. Maybe I should watch this plunge control deal more closely.


(Sat Dec 20 1997 00:58 - ID#372344)
@ Haggis
That speaks volumes in a funny way ( pun intended ) . But on the serious
side, since you can speak from personal experience, how do you
envision the Whites reacting to Botha's probable inprisonment?
The Att. Gen. of his province is refusing thus far to arrest him, but
sooner or later something will have to give?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:00 - ID#215208)
KCTrader - The currency history info comes from

The info on the share of the gold market comes from the WGC web page

I use Excel to do the calculations and generate the chart. Here is the latest. Check out how they track each other during this rally.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:06 - ID#32078)
gold funds
MARSHALL.. Your question on US Global gold funds.

IMO, The US Global World Gold is one of the best funds. It has fallen over 40% this year, like most others, but seems to go up quicker.

The US Gold Shares has mostly South African stocks and has fallen further than any other gold fund this year. However, if the gold rally has duration and the rand appreciates, then Gold Shares will also benefit from the currency improvement.

Most mutual fund sites regard gold funds as an evil stepson, and most gold funds don't even have a webpage.

The best website on gold funds is, by far,

This week an unusual thing happened with the funds; almost all had a good week. Several over 7% for the week.


(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:07 - ID#270165)

Thanks for the link. Where do you get the info on which country is buying/selling gold?


(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:09 - ID#372344)
@ KC Trader
Please!! Let me know as soon as you find out.!!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:11 - ID#215208)
KCTrader - The 2-year chart is even more impressive. I think it is a better reference, as it "normalizes" all the parameters just before the gold bear started. Because of this, the curves overlay even more closely. In fact during this week's rally, they virtually lie on top of each other.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:12 - ID#252150)
Ted.....from one island to another
You're right, I'm in Victoria. Now, if I could buy waterfront property at Cape Breton prices, this would be the perfect place. Unfortunately, prices are many times higher out here. Oh well! I can't complain too much. I have great mountain ( Olympics ) & ocean views from my condo& when I don't have much to do I can watch the ships go by, & occasionaly killer whales with my binoculars. If the people in Cape Breton are too dependant on social services, I think the govt's, both provincial & federal deserve most of the blame. Not just in Cape Breton. We have been cursed with really inept, corrupt politicians in this Country. But I guess that goes for pretty well all govt's world wide. They are definitely the parasitic class. I have some fond memories of the people in Cape Breton. I particularly remember our landlady. I was just 23, my wife 20 & no relatives there. They had us for dinner & helped us in many ways.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:14 - ID#227238)
KC Trader: I agree with eveything you just said. ...... There are two keys to this gold thing that will change the situation in a dramatic fashion, IMO.

One is volume. Volume of activity so stunning that it swamps the manipulators in their tracks. It must accompany a rise in OI. I think it is a necessary prerequisite for this market in its present situation. IF we are witness to another rally and if it has a substantial increase in volume, then it will likely have legs. Failing that ..... forget it. It is encouraging to read reports of long lead times at retail for coins. A positive sign.

The second is a realization on the part of major short players that they may no longer rely on the central banks as a source of physical. That their golden goose ( es ) are likely to, suddenly, hit menopause. That cheap gold loans will not serve as carry for the bond market or other activities. In other words, some sign that the banks will no longer aid and abett the same practices they have served in the past few years. To date, the short sellers have had the major players on their side and the entire field to themselves. ...... A couple more months of the present monetary turmoil and the central banks may begin to understand the term "pucker factor". If it results in some gold loans being called in, so much the better.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:16 - ID#215208)
Gold market
KCTrader - As I mentioned this info comes from the World Gold Council's web page. It is a little hard to find. Here is the menu page, from which you can link to the details.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:23 - ID#270165)

I didn't try the logo thing on the screen the first time. How do these computers work anyway? That's an incredible chart. Is this info available daily or have you already told me how to access it and I don't get it? I've been around PC's since the late 70's, but I haven't spent much time figuring out the internet and it's format.


(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:28 - ID#270165)

Thanks. I'll see if I can't make use of it.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:29 - ID#228128)
DJ how do you calculate WMC and WMG
DJ: My apologies for not e-mailing a response. My computer crashed and I lost all my mail and addresses. Would you explain how you calculate your weighted averages, I'm a bit confused. For example is the WMC the sum for all currencies of : currency in US $ on Jan 6 minus currency in U.S. $ on today's date times the percent of world gold consumption . If so, what value do you assign to the U.S. $ which makes up 12+% of world comsumption? If you don't mind resending an e-mail to me I'd appreciate it. You could just put your e-mail address in the body of the note. My new e-mail system doesn't display return addresses and I haven't figured how to make it give the info. My address is

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:31 - ID#42371)
Earl & KC_trader
The sentiment is so bearish that it will take something significant to turn it around. Though I would like to see a significant rally in the next few weeks, I think until we hear from the Europeans how much Gold they will put behind their currency in March, there will be a pall and cap on the market. The best we can hope for is a technical rally of $10 as the shorts cash in early next year.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:35 - ID#215208)
KCT - The info on the gold market in the WGC web page is all I have. Wish I had a detailed breakdown by quarter, but the info seems to be accurate enough for my purposes ( i.e. the chart works ) . I rooted around the currency webpages and managed to get myself on a list whereby I get sent a message around noon each day with a report on the values of the previous days major currencies ( for free ) . Don't recall exactly how I did this, but I think this is the right place to start. Good luck.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:36 - ID#393224)
DJ--love those charts, mate. Please keep them coming at least once a week. If gold is to go lower from here, then the Asian currencies are also in trouble. Which is the horse and which is the cart?? If Asian currencies recover, look out above for gold.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:42 - ID#42371)
Till Monday
Goodnight all. Must remeber to get some more maalox.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:42 - ID#252150)
Cherokee@ who the hell is going to hell first
I don't doubt for one minute that our debt is way to high.But if you are really serious about us being in worse shape than Mexico, then I doubt very much if you have any idea of what you're talking about. I realize that most gov't reports are bs, but the OECD is much closer to the mark than you are. We have the fastest growing economy, with virtually no inflation & a budget surplus this year. How can you possibly compare us to Mexico. Our $ is going down because speculators ( hedge funds ) want us to have short term rates = to yours. We are still a relatively small economy & they know that they can force our CB to increase rates & still eventually cover their short positions with good profits. I just made some good $ shorting the Yen. Your turn will eventually come as well. We are all going to hell in a handbasket, but right now you have the order all wrong.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:51 - ID#270165)

I don't know. I gauge sentiment by who is putting up the bucks. Money at risk is the only issue. It took me ten years to come to this conclusion, I'm a slow learner. The trend of the large speculators is what I watch. If you listen to CNBC, you would never buy gold in your lifetime. If you listen to goldbugs, you would never buy anything but gold. I'm a libertarian / objectivist at heart so I would like to see a return to the gold standard, but it doesn't do me a bit of good trading the markets.


John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:52 - ID#24140)
some comments
For werner

Your Fregold will be rolled into Vaal as part

of anglos resturucturing. Dont worry - its a good

deal. Entire group rising in price.

For savage - If I had to stick to ADR, Id buy

Rangold ( rangy ) otherwise Id buy Randfontein ( not sure

if ADR exist )

For Haggis - Where did you live in SA, a township??

Ive lived in Australia for 5 years, Japan for 6,

Turkey for 3, Arabia for 1, Andorra for 3, SA for 8,

and the rest in the US. I wouldnt live any place

else although I do have a warm spot for Australia. I

live in the Cape. Regarding crime, I was burgled twice

in Australia during a 5 year period. In 8 years here,

other than an abortive attempt to pinch some avocados

from one of my trees, nothing has happened inshallah -

I have a Black gardener. I like and trust him. I

would prefer him to a Scot any day. Another SA

story along the lines you mention is that White

Afrikaaner weight lifters always used to have a Black

along to take the weights out of the box. That's true.

For Zadeek ?? - The great instability you speak

of in SA exists in the corners of your troubled

brain ( ?? ) . The kind of half smart crapola that you

talk been preached since the First Boer war. SA is

still here. I think your natural maliciousness is

thankfully offset by your lack of intelligence. You

are a veritable fountain of misinformation. Im sure

you will keep up the bad work.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:57 - ID#215208)
IDT - WMC: First, for each currency, take the ratio of the currency value today ( relative to the US$ ) divided by the currency value at the beginning of 1997 ( 0r 1996 for the 2-year chart ) . Multiply this ratio by the % of the gold the respective countries buy, and add all the results together. Treat the US$ the same, but of course the ratio is always exactly one. Nevertheless, it gets factored in with the appropriate weighting. Then I multiply by 100 just because I wanted to.

USD - This of course is the ratio of the price of gold in US$ to its price at the beginning of the period, multiplied by 100.

WMG = USG/WMC*100. Note that the price of gold in this "world gold currency" remains relatively stable. My only explanation for why WGC tracks USG so closely is that when the price of gold is high in the eyes of the buyers, they quit buying and demand drops, and vice versa. This seems to explain the drop in the price of gold in US$, without elaborate conspiracies.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 01:58 - ID#270165)

I agree with your comments concerning volume. I doubt we will see big volume until after the first of the year. The trend in the gold market has been to bid it up early in the year and then go short. I think this may change. If the the market holds up here and actually rises, I'm likely to go heavily long before Jan 1. The shorts that are hanging for tax purposes will sell immediately giving the market a good bounce. We'll see.


(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:03 - ID#398105)
John Disney..........

G'day from Kalgoorlie,

Cape Town is indeed a beautiful place, but it does depend where abouts in Cape Town - Constantia is a "wee" bit different from District Six. I lived in Welkom in the Orange Free State for a year.

Aye, Haggis

(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:08 - ID#270165)

Checking out - goodnight. Thanks for your comments.


John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:12 - ID#24140)
Two coins in the fountain of Misinformation
Zadeek reports revolution to come in SA.

How will Whites react to PW BOTHA refusing to show

at the Truth and Reconciliation Commision ?.

- they think the TRC is a big joke and dont give two hoots about PW.

How will Blacks React

- They think TRC is a big joke too.

Same goes for coloreds, Muslims, Indians

How will Bishop Tutu react ??

He will probably cry.

How will Mandela react ?

He will say PW Botha is not above the law

How will PW botha react ?

Penalty for not appearing at TRC is imprisonment OR

a 2000 RAND Fine ( 400$ ) . I predict PW will pay

the 400 bucks and not show up.

How will foreign press react?

They will try to make a big deal out of it for about

a week and say that Whites must give up power ( which

they did several years ago ) .

How will Zadeek react ??

With more half smart hysterical crap.

Will there be a revolution ??

No - sorry - I could use a little excitement - pretty

dull around here.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:13 - ID#335184)

(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:14 - ID#372344)
@ South Africa Facts.
Anyone wishing to verify the facts in my posts tonight may read thru
various articles and speeches to be found at

(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:19 - ID#215208)
Horse vs. cart
Nick@C - Glad you find the charts of value. I have given the horse/cart question a lot of thought ( though it really doesn't matter, I guess ) . Really there are four possibilities.

1. It's just an accident that the curves overlay. As soon as I invest money in this relationship, they will jump apart like they were spring loaded. With my luck, it might happen, but I doubt it.

2. There is no cause/effect relationship. They are both driven down by the same external force, thus they track each other. This possibility will eat up mega-Kitco-bandwidth, as all the consiracy theorists jump in. It may even be true. Who knows.

3. The price of gold in US$ terms, is the main driving force behind the weakening of the currencies of the gold buying countries. Somehow I doubt this.

4. The weakening currencies of the gold buying countries makes gold seem expensive, thus they stop buying. The price drops because of lower demand. This seems reasonable. Is this explanation too simplistic to explain it? I admit, it is very simple.

Any that I missed? Fortunately, we don't have to really know why, as long as the relationship holds. Right now I am betting on it!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:20 - ID#398105)
TZADEAK and John Disney..............Afrikaners


How will the Afrikaners react to Botha's arrest........ it has to happen first. Then, well ?!! In general, the English speaking South African will compromise and reconcile with the Black population - the Afrikaner will not do this. A Free State Afrikaner once said to me...." We understand them ( Blacks ) , but we can give them nothing".

South Africa, from my perspective and understanding, has a world significant crime rate, in particular murder rate, with limited success in crime prevention and solution. The unemployment rate amongst Black Males is 30%, possibly up to 50%. Crime is a major "employer" in South Africa. The African National Congree ANC has not addressed the issues relevant to the Black population, in particular housing, eduation, and jobs.

South Africa is not for me.

Aye, Haggis

John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:23 - ID#24140)
District six ?
For Haggis

Distict 6 was years ago ? This dates you a bit. Try Khayalitsha. I did live in Constantia but found people a bit too snobby my taste. I wouldnt wish a year in the Free State on anyone - not even a Scot - but then it probably beats Glascow and your daily ration of oatmeal.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:25 - ID#398105)
John Disney


Aye, it is fairly clear that you don't live in a Township. Have you ever been to one?!?!
aye, Haggis

(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:31 - ID#398105)
John Disney

G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

"District Six was years ago".....struth..... does that mean things HAVE changed. Correct me if I am wrong, Saweto is STILL south of Jo'burg.

Don't tell me that you are one of the White South African LIBERALS. Did your time on Robbin Island. Do me a favour Mate.

Aye, haggis

John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:31 - ID#24140)
Another silly question

For Haggis

Eat some more oatmeal and no more silly buggers for today

Your thumbnail sketch of Afrikaaner attitudes is anecdotal dated

and wrong.

Silly argument and lets just see what happens..

Aye oboyoboy

(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:33 - ID#23195)
Europeans buy:American computers-American weapons-Japanese televisions
German cars-French food-Look for Swedish girls and buy S African

Americans buy:American computers-American weapons-American cars-American
televisions-American food-look for an American girl and
buy American Goldmines

Question:A lack of information??...Or tell me why

(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:37 - ID#372344)
@ Haggis
Don't waste your time, he lives in the 5th Dimension near Disneyland
and is still dreaming in technicolor. This forum ( the last time I looked ) is
a discussion based IMHO on the free exchange of information and ideas
based on FACTS as they relate to Gold. Free that is from name callers, tamper tantrum throwers, promoters of seff vested interests, english and grammar $ spelling gurus wantobes, etc... Now I'm wasting my time.

John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:42 - ID#24140)
Even More SILLY Questions
For Haggis of Oatmeal Fame

1. How could a man spend One year in the Free State and Not Know

HOW TO SPELL SOWETO for chrissake. Means South West Township.

2. I am not a Liberal by any stretch of the imagination. Do you say

that because I prefer my Black Gardener to most Scots ??

3. Im not a South African at all. I was born in Virginia and became

a Aussie citizen. I live here simply because I like the place.

4. Regarding your township comments, I have no idea what you're

driving at, and frankly dont give a st*ff.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:46 - ID#215208)
werner and John Disney - werner, I know your last post was mainly in jest, but let me comment anyhow. I am in the US and own only RSA gold mines. But it hasn't been easy. Very few RSA mines have web pages. Can't download SEC filings. Almost no info available via web searches. Hard to even find phone and fax numbers. As an example, I finally tracked down a fax number for Rustenburg before the merger. Sent them 2 faxes asking for info and an annual report. Weeks later, I got a letter from the London law firm saying they couldn't send me an annual report because they don't solicit investors from the US or some such language. Can't even get a quote on AAPTY from Yahoo as they don't recognize the symbol! If RSA put just a little effort into marketing communication, my guess is that the flood gates would open up. Don't blame it all on N. American attitudes ( only most of it ) .

Mostly I have given up on trying to research RSA stocks. Now I just buy what John says to buy. :- )

John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:48 - ID#24140)
Technicolor dreams from the 5th Dimension
For Werner

I think you have a very clear picture of the situation.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:51 - ID#257148)
a sovereign or two and
Werner: Italian gold jewellery

(Sat Dec 20 1997 02:54 - ID#398105)
John Disney.............


"Disney" that an equivalent to DREAM WORLD. Thanks for putting me on the straight and narrow.


Aye, Haggis

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:00 - ID#432148)
Nick, thanks for the EBN url. The reason EB and I get a little upset
at unkind remarks about yankland is the truth hurts. We do not agree with a lot of what our government does of course. But you may recall something about our navy neuc vessals not being allowed to port in OZ or NZ. That wasn't very kind either was it? And it does seem I eat a lot of NZ apples. They are the best. You might be interested in the fact my son and his wife actually went to NZ thinking of immigrating. The economy was so bad at that time even a talented engineer couln't find much of a job, so it didn't work out. So it goes. As you may know we Libertarians believe in absolute Free Trade, regardless of whatever, and this M.N.S crap would not fly.

John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:05 - ID#24140)
Jackals snapping at my heels - be GONE
For DJ -

YOU should have told me. Look it will cost you 400$ a year but you

can be rolling in gold mining info if you like.

Subscribe to the Mining Journal - PO box 10, Edenbridge, Kent,TN85NE,

England - phone +44 ( 0 ) 1732 865747. Ive subscribed for years - an excellent quarterly plus a monthly suppliment - Covers ALL golds - Sadly no plats. Its a bit pricey but worth it if you like gold mines.

On plats good general info from johnson matthey. Ill post the platinum

mining results when they come out. Only 3 companies now Amplat, Implat,

and Northam.

Your comment on gold in currencies is spot on - Its in steep down

trend channels for over 2 months now and is looking to break out I

hope. I am intriged also by the ag/au ratio at one fibo since the

gold collapse against silver

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:09 - ID#398105)


Thanks for our advice.

One issue that IS relevant to gold mining in South Africa is the on-going and future capitalisation of new mining projects. I cannot recall the statistics off hand, but yearly South Africa % of world production is declining. Outside the Witwaterand Basin there is limited scope for new major gold discoveries. Bringing a new gold mine on-line in South Africa is VERY EXPENSIVE.

In general, Rothchilds associated companies ( Anglo American, Rio Tinto ) may be expected to look elsewhere in the world. A good example of this has been the sustained growth of the gold mining industry in Australia over the last ten years. Similar growth in gold exploration and mining could be expected in India over the next ten years, if they sort out their Mining Act laws.

Therefore, one may expect growth in gold exploration and mining elsewhere in the world, and on-going decline of the South African gold mining industry. They have

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:15 - ID#398105)
John Disney..........


Oatmeal, tastes alright as long as it is cooked. BUT, we Scots have advanced beyond Oatmeal..... Haggis, it is either highly cultured or rough as guts, depends on the occasion. Scots have ALWAYS been Mercenaries.

Aye, Haggis

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:18 - ID#257148)
"wee sleekit cowrin' tim'rous beastie

C'mon Haggis, what did Robbie say? Date: Thu Dec 18 1997 05:50

crusty, it's like I said, be thankful that the largest market of rich morons are currently over-estimating political risk in S.A. Have no idea of the history, consistency, and size of the deposits in S A. btw, thanks for keeping us appraisd of situation in this "strife-torn-benighted-land"
Am hearing more and more of ( re- ) discoveries up in NW Africa. would be grateful for your thorts on these.
How's it going with Ag/Au ratio stuff?

That "Da Da, Da Da, Da Da, Da." You hear in the background is sharefin, who, my eisdic tells me is sweeping his radar? Hope you got the Anzac post yesterday.. Go new ISP.

Nick@C__oventry/Siberia_ like I said, cobber, I bin the cabin boy on the bridge of the Titanic before, while you're welcome to join me, there's no glory in't.


(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:18 - ID#215208)
John D - Thx for the info on the MJ. I may just so that. However, few will. The real solution is for RSA to get off their collective asses and learn how to market to us ignorant Americans. It really wouldn't take a lot. A table of companies with ADR's available, with results and dividends summarized, along with web-page references and links to other references. If you can get current quotes on Yahoo, most info is missing, like P/E ratio, etc. I am absolutely amazed that they don't do this.

Running out of gas. Time to crash. 'night all.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:22 - ID#393224)
Goldbug 23
G'day G23. The Kiwis took a stand on not allowing US nuclear ships and it cost them dearly. A case of the high moral ground being expensive in $$ terms. The US could have handled that one much better. If you treat your best friends like lepers because they take a moral stand on an extremely important issue, then you run the risk of soon being friendless.

Speaking of Kiwis--where is Auracious?? We need some Auraciousness around here. Dang, sharefin has been servered and Auracious is pretending to be the invisible man. Soon there'll only be Yanks and Canucks on the site ( oh sorry John Disney,Haggis etc ) and who will be left to tell you Northerners to rack off when you get uppity??? At least J.D. has got the cajones to call a pig a boar ( pun intended ) .

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:26 - ID#257148)
and then there's the Scottish banks....
Haggis, mercenaries, aye, and the best darned engineers humanity has produced, Macadam, for the roads, Dunlop for the tyres, Bell for the phone, Baird for the TV, Stevenson's Lighthouse. the Firth Road bridge, not forgeting Fleming for Penicillin, Macloed for Insulin all off the top of ma hid.


(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:27 - ID#393224)
Speak of the devil!!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:29 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Five Year Chart
120 market days Chart
30 market days Chart
10 days Hourly Chart

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:29 - ID#372344)
@ Haggis
I want you to know that I enjoy hot oatmeal at least 3 times a week!
I appreciate your views about said BASIN and exploration funds,
I recall reading somewhere that during the last riots there a few years
back, exploration funds dried right up. I just wanted to know,
and I guess this was the jist of my post, have you ever heard Pres.
Mandela say that he was aware of a plot to sabotage the economy by whites if they dind't get their way ( or words to that effect ) before, or
is this something new he said is his speech at the ANC convention.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:30 - ID#23195)
goldmines John Disney
For John Disney :Thanks for the information.
I know it is very hard to get information about African goldmines esspecially about freegold .I could only get on the internet annual and trimestrial reports .Do you know where I can find more?
I think in the future S african Mines will for various reasons ( political-technical-economical ) be more profitable then American goldmines, only you need the information to know, which one to buy and when.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:38 - ID#398105)


The gold exploration and minimg activity in NW Africa is focused upon the Archaean and Proterozoic rocks in the Reguibat Shield in the Western Sahara, the West African Craton ( Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone Guinea, Ghana ) , the Nigerian Benin Shield, and the Mauritanides Rokelides orogen. A significant number of Australia companies are involved. A key issue is the capitalisation of projects, which when compared to South African mines, is minimal. Good potential. Probably two of the key companies to follow are LEO SHIELD EXPLORATION and EQUIGOLD NL - both are well funded and managed. My bias is, however, Australia - STILL GOOD POTENTIAL, and the industry has expertise to find, develop, mine. Even immediately around Kalgoorlie there are LARGE discoveries being made - key stocks INTERMIN RESOURCE CORPORATION, JOHNSONS WELL MINING, CENTAUR MINING AND EXPLORATION.
Aye, Haggis

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:39 - ID#238422)
@John Disney
John, people are confused on the subject of RSA mainly
for 2 reasons:

1. Very little information on RSA is available in the U.S.

2. Violatile history of nearly all contries in Africa,
after these contries have been "liberated"
from "White management".

I do feel that these two reasons also effect my judgement.
I also feel that RSA is kind of different from almost
any other country on the African continent. I think people
just need more time to evaluate the NEW REALITY OF RSA.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:42 - ID#398105)
aurator........... should vhange your name to "MacAurator".

Aye, Haggis

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:47 - ID#257148)
Yeah, None have said they know what ANZUS means, or meant. OK.....BIG HEROES =====LEND LEASE======

as long as we're talking about the high moral ground.. what about les vachement Franaise bombing the Rainbow Warrior and killing one man in Peace time. Where was the Somme again? who are the fckin french to bomb a ship in the beautiful auckland harbour.

And what did the Yanks do? Did your gomt complain? Huh! As usual, when it concerns your allies you do Fanny Adam.

"America will fight to the last drop of her Allies' blood"

With allies like them...

They will never understand Anzac === reason I'm in a snit is that some my best work ( imho - and I am my harshest critic--not ) ===was sliced and diced by a sick kitco experiment two mornings ago. I was talkin to myself and not falling asleep, i wuz adequate.

Bumper sticker kitco

it was very good to see aurophile again


(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:54 - ID#398105)
aurator..........Robert Burns 1759-1796

TO A MOUSE, November 1785

"Wee, sleekit, cowrin, tim'rous beastie,

O, what a panic's in thy breastie,

Thou need na start awa sae hasty

Wi' buckering brattle!

I wad be laith to rin an'chase thee,

Wi' murdering pattle!...............................

Not only have we advanced beyond Oatmeal, we can now talk in a form understandable to most persons.

Aye, Haggis

(Sat Dec 20 1997 03:56 - ID#257148)
*****_________I___C____B____M_____(friendly fire ;-))))
Oris, amigo, very little information on anything is available in the US. You do not know how ignorant you are, and i mean that in a helpful, sharing, non-confrontational,dickh@dCaliforniaway

the answer is not in the process

(Sat Dec 20 1997 04:01 - ID#398105)
Sorry Lads, but off the air until tomorrow.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 04:02 - ID#393224)
French terrorism
Auracious-- amazing that a 'respectable' country in the western alliance can commit an act of international terrorism and not a peep from the land of the free, home of the brave. Iranians, Iraqis, Libyans rate a virtual plethora of vitriol from you-know-whom, but let the frogs do the same thing and they say "ho hum"!! If any Americans ever want to understand the Kiwi psyche ( which they don't ) , then let them study a bombing in Auckland harbour by their allies, their total lack of response, and how the resentment over this issue will never go away. Why should an elephant bother with a flea, mate??

OK , I know, it's back to the dungeon for me and me Kiwi mate. Hope you haven't got the ultimate torture down there. CNBC.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 04:05 - ID#257148)
A statue of Robbie Burns is located in the centre of Dunedin (new Edinburgh) S Island. NZ
Haggis; ( @you'remorethansheepgutstome ) that mouse got turned out of his nest by harvesters, and imho, is a beautiful description of the panicof paper on the horizon. No, what I was really looking for, that's with one eye-brow MacCocked, was the closest in english to

Oh wud some poo'er the gi'tie gi'e us
to see ursels as uthers see us

which is how i'd write it after hearing it.

Is Trillion working in NW AFrica?


(Sat Dec 20 1997 04:08 - ID#393224)
Oracious. Is there a chapter of Y.B.A. ( Yank Bashers Anonymous ) in Oz?? I need help.

John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 04:14 - ID#24140)
You're breaking my Heart.
For Oatmeal Man

Sad to see you leave the air - NOT

For Oris

Any time you want to see the Cape, you can stay at my place.

For Salty

See above - same goes.

For Zadek -

I think Ive met you before in a piece by a guy named Handel. Eat

dat oatmeal - They say it helps the brain and I suggest you go from

3 times a week to 10 times a day

(Sat Dec 20 1997 04:14 - ID#393224)
Frog legs
Time to walk the rotties. Last night found ten kangaroos. Walked up to 30 feet before they hopped off. Getting bored with us. Would change their opinions if I let the dogs go. Tonight will be looking for French terrorists.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 04:14 - ID#257148)
who, you? arrogant??? perish the thought???
Nick@C, anmd what the arrogant french failed to see, and what the arrogant americans fail to see ( apart from my FRIENDS@Kitco ) was that: every minute of this "crack" french Commando unit, was observed, was noted. The ordinary people of NZ saw everything, a man in a forest in Norhtland noted two cars had a rendezvous in a remote place, he was looking for cannabis growers, took bothe licence plates, on the harbour in auckland, security guard noted arrrival of this car, inflating dinghy, set off.... we were trailing this vachement french spies. we caught them and because there was no international support ( we didn't want nukes...aren't we dreadful people? ) we had did give them back, they serverd a few months in club med prisons and now hold high jobs in French secret servicew

so, where were you, you hurt, american allies?


oh to be an enemy... Most favoured Nation,////No trade barriers

gee thanks a lot


(Sat Dec 20 1997 04:25 - ID#257148)
"Excuse me, Captain."
Nick@C~do~not~worry like I said, I been here before! Most important thing is to think like a


that is, remember you are not a turkey, you are at home in water. The officers on the bridge of Titanic whose sleeves you are tugging are more concerned with the Divorce in cabin 307 than the i said, no glory in't.. Funny thing, Nick months ago you mentioned On the Beach, I read it long ago, and always thort ( that for spelling nzis ) it was talking of NZ, ...

werner..good to hear a european slant, encourage your colleagues please...

(Sat Dec 20 1997 04:44 - ID#257148)
----sodium chloride-------
Disney: you're alway welcome as long as you bring Mickey... ( he he )
I witnessed an extraordinary meeting ( to me ) yesterday. My SA secretary meeting a SA real estate agent, whom I had been engaging in mutually satisfying conversation for 20 minutes.. I do not know what afrikaans was spoken ( shall find out ) but, he bent down and kissed her hand, which she had offered.

america really is the least civilised country on earth, imho, of course

(Sat Dec 20 1997 05:10 - ID#257148)
what was that joke again?
Nick@C Rotties got yer tongue? What's under their kennel?
BTW, ya know that antipodean to Auckland NZ is really Madrid, Spain, and they are antipodean to us


(Sat Dec 20 1997 05:56 - ID#26793)
You guys are really beating up on us today. Is it safe for me to post?

John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 06:04 - ID#24140)
Blame it on the Movies
For Salty

I swear Americans didnt used to be like this. They used to be quite

civilized. They could even spell. They never said things like "vested

self interest" - Maybe "self interest" or even "vested interest" but

"vested self interest" ??? -

I think it all changed when H. Bogart died. Look we had G Cooper,

J Wayne, even J Stewart. Guys you could trust. Straight up dudes that

would back you up. Real role models. Then came Brando - and the rot set in. Leading men even got SHORTER.- and weedier.

Black Americans now dominate sport. Hey how come The US pro football teams are maybe 2/3 Black with a Black population of only 12 %. The SA Rugby Team has no actual Black African speaking players despite the

relatively large number of Blacks in the country.

Many North American White males seems to be in remarkable decline.

I would be interested in comments from a few of the particularly

desparate cases that inhabit this illustrious site.

Also Im fascinated how some American males ESCAPED this fate and

have retained their individuality, intellectual curiosity, and sense of

freedom ( and fun ) . Cherokee, Brave Oris, DJ, many others. How does it

work ?? What do they do to you ? I left long ago and like to think I

escaped in time - Do I delude myself ??

(Sat Dec 20 1997 06:06 - ID#26793)
Lifeline thrown to Australian gold miners

(Sat Dec 20 1997 06:06 - ID#210114)
January Effect
Someone mentioned a 'January effect'. I presume that this is a bounce upward. Is it consistant? Can we expect a rally in the New Year?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 06:12 - ID#26793)
BOJ dollar sales fail to halt yen slide ($7 billion so far I hear)

(Sat Dec 20 1997 06:25 - ID#26793)
Brazil deficit surges in October

(Sat Dec 20 1997 06:31 - ID#26793)
Mexican interest rates surge on Asian worries

(Sat Dec 20 1997 06:37 - ID#26793)
Predictions of Fed policy for 1998

(Sat Dec 20 1997 06:41 - ID#26793)
Dresdner Bank gold price prediction for 1998

(Sat Dec 20 1997 06:42 - ID#393224)
@ types of Americans
Kitcoamericans are ok. Well, most of 'em, anyway.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 06:52 - ID#393224)
Do you want the good news or the bad news first
My local news report this a.m.
"Gold finished up $2 today BUT Dresdner Bank says it will go to $250 this year"
Negativity index must be close to a bottom.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 07:07 - ID#210114)
Great Prediction
Have to laugh at the Dresdner prediction. They say a range of $250 - $325. Wow, that must have been a hard one to predict. Has anyone got any further information of the $250 figure??

(Sat Dec 20 1997 07:30 - ID#339320)
@Nick in Aussy, and Disney in South Africa

Gee Nick, you sure have been in a Gringo bashing mood
this morning. Nothing personal, but my experience after a
year in Austrailia is that the Aussy culture culture, in
general, suffers from a heavy dose of inferiority complex to
the U.S.. You know what I mean.

Johnre out on that tangent too. I
think the reason that South Africa has next to no blacks on
THEIR team can be dedicated more to political reasons,
not that the south African whites are just, in general, so
much better than the blacks. This response in itself seems to
indicate the SA situation. I usually enjoy your

And for the Kiwi complainers: Ya, I was there. They are usually more competent than the Aussies in most fields, but are habitual whiners, and have a desire need to inject some new blood into their gene pool, to improve the looks of their female population. I sailed right down the Central Tuamotos, not far from Mururoa, and had the oportunity to speak
with French military personal about their opinions regarding NZ and the Warrior incident. Not to bestow a favorable judgement of French policy, the officers didnt feel that NZ as a sufficient enough tocount in the international arena.

There will probably be hell to pay later, but that was how I saw it.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 08:17 - ID#401183)
The Dresdner Bank $250.00 @ ounce for gold prediction for 1998 has given me the confidence to set up shop as a prognosticator and financial analyst/expert that will never be quoted in Barron's or by the Reuter's News Agency or by Lou Dobbs and CNBC but here goes. My first prediction for 1998 is:

Between one and five Dresdner Bank officials in the upcoming 1998 year will resign over company policys, directions,etc, ( David Clementi, Simon Robertson ) or tax evasion ( Hansegeort Hofman ) .

(Sat Dec 20 1997 08:28 - ID#286199)
Randall W. Forsyth has an article in this weeks Barrons wherein he reports:

"Since September, treasuries held in custody for foreign central banks by the Fed have fallen by more than $32 billion. ( That includes a drop of over $11 billion in the week ended Wednesday, a period that saw the redemption of $35 billion in short-term cash management bills..."

This drop has coincided with a marked increase in the M3 money supply measure, providing strong circumstancial evidence that the U.S. is monetizing debt. Where is the money going??

(Sat Dec 20 1997 08:33 - ID#426220)

Noted U.S. stock market expert continues to lean towards Dow 5700-6400 being seen sometime in front of the middle of next year, regardless of how high it might get in early '98 weeks ( which is absolutely the Street's plan, but clearly capable of being derailed by even hints of news, which should worry traders, especially this time of year ) . In fact he asserts, If anything my Dow leanings might be too optimistic ( by about a thousand Dow points or so ) . Regarding current market action, he gleefully says, "WOW, I'm glad we're SHORT!"

1998 looks grim for common stocks:

(Sat Dec 20 1997 08:38 - ID#364147)
If the 'spirit' moves ya,e-mail

(Sat Dec 20 1997 08:41 - ID#364147)
@ BOXING + Vronsky or any other boxing fans
Vronsky: You happen to see that fight last night between Kevin Kelly and Hamed----fight of the year!!!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 08:42 - ID#364147)
On a roll
To the casino in Sydney ta see if my 'luck' continues~~~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Dec 20 1997 08:47 - ID#426220)
Speed & ALL: In REF to ( @Barrons ) Randall W. Forsyth article about U.S. Treasuries held in custody for foreign central banks by the Fed have fallen by more than $32 billion. The monumental significance of these data portends dire consequences for the U.S. stock market.

The following analysis are not the original thoughts of this writer - credit must go to Randall W. Forsyth, who in early 1996 first discovered the uncanny relationship between foreign Central

Banks increased holdings of U.S. Treasuries and the unprecedently long bull market in Wall Street stocks. Forsyth's initial recognition of the correlation was published early last year in Barron's. Subsequently, Economist George S. Cole mentioned the relevance of the two factors in several of his Internet postings earlier this year. The contribution of this writer was to expand upon the original thoughts of Forsyth and Cole. -

(Sat Dec 20 1997 08:55 - ID#426220)
Ted ( @ BOXING + Vronsky or any other boxing fans ) : Now ya tell me!!! I missed it. You know I am a fight fan from WAAAAAAAy back.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 09:17 - ID#368324)
The ASIAN Currency Turmoil
We are the T&R United Group that has operated in Asia
for over 20 years, ( We also play the SPOT Gold market so
that's why we are in this discussion group ) .

We know Asis as well as anyone can and have our own
views on how to take advantage and profit fron the
current turmoil.

We invite discussion participants to go to our WEB PAGE,
towards the end of the Page there are 3 LINKS that
will give the reader some insight to the ASIAN Crisis and
How to benefit from it.

The WEB Page is sponcered by our Subiduary TRU Travel,
however, just ignore the contents of the page ( unless
you are interested in Travel ) and go straight to the
bottom of the page to the LINKS on the "ASIAN TURMOIL" and
"How to Profit From the Crisis" and read the write-ups on
these subjects.

Go to\biz\truhome

or use your Search functions to Look for address of TRUHOME

If you have problems locating our page if you want to receive
the write-ups as attachments to email, send me a message

Hope our views on Asia will be of benefit to you.

( PS We did try to download the links content to this
server but it didn't work )

(Sat Dec 20 1997 09:24 - ID#225157)
Where is George S. Cole ??? Can anyone tell me when was the last time Cole posted on here. And what happened to his Gold Bull Market?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 09:36 - ID#368252)
To Donald A: Dollar/Yen relationship
First let me state emphatically that I am not an economist, but if the Japanese want to raise the value of the yen against the dollar it seems that if they took some of these American $ ( about 50 Billion let's say ) and bought gold, this would bring the American $ down and raise the value of the yen against it. Is my thinking totally off base ? Instead of giving a tax refund, wouldn't it have made more sense to have taken this money and bought gold ? Awaiting your reply.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 09:39 - ID#410114)
george cole
george cole is probably hoping that gold drops to $250so he can buy some bargins

(Sat Dec 20 1997 09:41 - ID#31868)
You Sir are a constant in your views. I have read your post over and over and there is much to be learned for me in what you said there.

A toast, gulp, of you health, may you live forever and the last voice you hear be that of a loved one.

I shall try, attempt, to temper, my timbre.

Cheers to yours. A voice of reason.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 09:42 - ID#23195)
Concerning future European central bank
Some peoples think the future european bank will hold its reserves in us
dollars and American bonds. ( Argentina's central bank sold recently all of its gold and replaced it by american bonds and dollars ) This is ridiculous!this way the european economy will totally depend on the american economy and the us dollar.I think the future european central bank will hold gold and a mixture of currencies as reserves.Many european central banks have sold their gold in order to meet the Maastricht criteria.How much is left?They may have to buy gold and will do so and preferable at a low price.Maybe "they" are sending the wrong signals so all other central banks will sell. Your opinion??

(Sat Dec 20 1997 09:50 - ID#333131)
@tolerant1 re your post to JFT
Congratulations to a person of substance, and I don't mean money.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 09:56 - ID#23195)
For Isure Why would they want the yen to raise a higher yen means lower exports ( less work etc ) THe americans and europeans would prefer a high yen.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 10:19 - ID#426220)

RCA ( 1925-1929 ) and MICROSOFT ( 1993-1997 )

This is text-book perfect! Go to the following chart of Microsoft. See how the price plummeted down through its 50 day Moving Average WITH TWO GAP MOVES.

A recent post at Kitco gave some sound fundamental reasons why MSFT is highly risky at todays price. Posting made on Thu Dec 18 1997 17:13 tricky ( RCA vs Microsoft ) :

Maybe RCA and Microsoft's businesses are different in some fundamental areas, but that does not change the fact that only a fool would put money in soft at these levels. Microsoft, last time I checked, was trading at over 20 TIMES BOOK!! This is clearly a bubble and a perfect example of THE GREATER FOOL THEORY. If my math is right with MSFT trading at 3 times book ( still pretty expensive ) the price per share would be about 20 dollars. That's a decline of about 85%! With almost no upside, because of litigation and very little profit growth with nothing coming out until Windows 98, and a downside of at least 85%-anyone interested in capital preservation cannot seriously recomend this stock.

Neither Ever Paid A Cash Dividend...

Deja Vu All Over Again?! From 1929 to 1932 RCA lost 97% of its market value. Recall RCA was the #1 High-Flying Tech stock of the 1920s. There is an eerie and uncanny historical resemblance here...

John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 10:24 - ID#24140)
the Japanese Yen and voting on a weight basis.
For Werner

I lived in Japan for a long time. Japanese exports are not as influenced by exchange rate as most countries. Reason is all raw materials and energy are imported so exchange effect tend to wash through. Local Labor content is low and so is profit margin - Yen has moved from 360 to $ in late 60s to 85 a year or so back.Not much effect on exports. Lots of talk about exchange rate but not much real effect. Japanese know this well, and tend to use it as a straw man in negotiations with much sucking of teeth.

For Cmax - This has little to do with politics. There are many good colored players. But Local Blacks are quite small compared with West African Blacks which form much of US bloodline. US Blacks were also bred for size and strength through generations of slavery - what goes around comes around.

Afrikaaners can get to be very big. If voting in RSA was on a "one pound one vote" basis - Afrikaaners would win every time.

They are scouring the countryside for a black guy who can play rugby and live to tell the tale.

But none of this explains the decline of NA White males in sport.

Are you implying that they have NOT declined relative to US Blacks.??

Really ??? You must be joking then

(Sat Dec 20 1997 10:27 - ID#23195)
I agree with you but this does not count only for Microsoft but for mostAmerican technical stocks traded on the Nasdaq.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 10:31 - ID#174103)
Prudent Bear
Which is what makes Prudent Bear such a nice fund to own, it predominantly shorts tech stocks. ( bearx ) Bought a whole bunch about a month ago. ( along with BGR Precious Metals, for a well-balanced crash portfolio ) .

(Sat Dec 20 1997 10:32 - ID#7568)

If anyone cares, I do not post anywhere else on the net including SI. It has come to my attention that someone has been lifting some of the things that I have written and using them as their own. I do not mind at all if anyone wishes to copy any of what I have written ( it would be nice if they gave me a little credit, but my ego can live without it ) as long as they do not represent themselves as me.

Since my livelyhood is directly connected to my reputation I would look unkindly towards anyone who did damage to that.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 10:33 - ID#288155)
Good morning! Im reposting this Letters to the Editor : Financial Times, 10/31 because it is ger
From Avinash Persaud
Head of Currency Research
J.P. Morgan ( Europe )
60 Victoria Embankment
London EC4Y OJP, UK

Sir, Larry Summers should be congratulated for his enlightened American view on Europes putative single currency ( American Eyes on EMU, October 22 ) . However, it would appear that part of this encouragement for Europes ambitious project is based on an understatement of the risks it poses to the hegemony of the US dollar.

Mr. Summers claims that the international role of currencies is slow moving. This is not so. Sterling lost its international reserve status quickly in the 1930s. The market adopts one currency as its numeraire, not on the basis of considered, cautious judgment, but on the basis of lowest transaction costs. Tradition plays little part in the market for currencies. The greater the use of a currency, the lower the transaction costs will be in using it.

This virtuous cycle explains why there is only ever one dominant currency. The problem for the dollar is that the euro will be a big currency. If all European Union countries participate, euolands economy will be 15% larger than the Us and eurolands exports will be 25% greater ( excluding intra-European trade ) . Just the 11 countries likely to join Emu in 1999 are a bigger exporter than the US.

Mr. Summers also claims that as long as the US does the right thing in terms of economic policy, the euros arrival will not affect the dollar. However, if the dollar loses its reserve status to the euro, this would trigger portfolio switch out of dollars by private investors and central banks in the region of $500bn to $1,000bn---of five times the US current account deficit.

I doubt whether any amount of good economic management would save the US economy and the dollar from the effects of such a flow.

The Europeans have 'lived' with the dollar reserve currency for 40 years and--when one reads remarks/thoughts of German central bankers past and present--it is apparent they will cut themselves loose from the despised dollar with relief--if not glee. To believe otherwise is to sign-on to the magnificent PR program now bolstering the $.
One may appreciate the poliitical skill being displayed on the dollars behalf, while not allowing oneself to believe a word of it.

John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 10:35 - ID#24140)
Inferiority Complex ?? My My !

Funny Cmax - in 5 or 6 year in Australia, I never noticed that
Auusies felt inferior to Americans. Maybe you were just "projecting" -
know what I mean ?. Many Aussies think Americans are Jerks. I didnt
use to feel that way but lately --- know what I mean ?
Maybe they just envy that royal US blood line - directly back to
Sir Richard of Cranium.
Overjoyed you like my reasoning - makes my day.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 10:44 - ID#23195)
for John Disney.Japanese exports have changed since the 60's and 70's.In
those years Japan exported mostly cars and other relatively low value goods which needed lots of raw materials mostly imported.Now they export a lot of high value goods which need and need less raw materials except
for oil ofcourse.
THanks again for yesterday's informtion.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 10:59 - ID#254137)
gold silver divergece
Any theories as to why silver has made such a strong move up and gold
has not?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 11:06 - ID#26669)
Vronsky: Thanks for the link!
Back when I had a telnet server I couldn't see all these charts so I ignored them. Since I changed over to a Java capable server I've been waiting for you to post one so I could bookmark it.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 11:06 - ID#26669)
Vronsky: Thanks for the link!
Back when I had a telnet server I couldn't see all these charts so I ignored them. Since I changed over to a Java capable server I've been waiting for you to post one so I could bookmark it.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 11:06 - ID#23195)

(Sat Dec 20 1997 11:08 - ID#93232)
Sssnnniiifffff. Now I'm a little better....I thought I'd stop in and see who's still alive. Now I'm hooked again. I suppose Kitco offers a 4-week dry-out rehab for $2500....and Vronsky's the paid instructor.

Hey, my prediction for 1998....Karlito takes the chapters ( all of them ) due to Wall Street's collapse in the first quarter. It get's worse...second quarter '98...he is shot ( fortunately a mere flesh wound but he still makes a big deal out of it ) ) at a Service Merchandise while looting gold during a widespread panic caused by a global economic meltdown. Third quarter....LGB, who is now working as a prison guard, breaks the Karlito kid out. And in the final quarter....Karlito is chosen to replace Camdessus, who has been mortally wounded in a blues club brawl with tolerant. No charges are ever files against tolerant...
rather, we owe him dearly.

Oh yea, and on the last day of '98, gold hits its high for the year...$3840.40. I could be off a dime or so...but I don't think so.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 11:26 - ID#255151)
The Decline Of The American Male

John Disney--David Letterman had a Top Ten List of why the Americans won the Revolutionary War. I recall two of them. #1 ) British diet-tea and crumpets, American diet-Deer meat and whiskey. #2 ) British rallying cry, "Let's win this for our swishy, syphillitic Monarch!" I submit that we have become more like THEM!--especially #2.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 11:34 - ID#225283)
Gold day everyone

(Sat Dec 20 1997 11:41 - ID#23195)
American war

(Sat Dec 20 1997 11:45 - ID#23195)

(Sat Dec 20 1997 11:47 - ID#348286)
@GOLD demand by the small investor
Gool balanced article in Globe & Mail Page B20.
"DEMAND IS HUGE" said a trader at J&M Ltd. , which supplies Gold bars to banks and other sellers.
"At Bank of Nova Scotia, which does a big retail Gold business, demand from individual buyers is up 65% from a year ago, says the director of precious metals."
"Trimark Investment Funds have bought $775 Million worth of Gold certificates. Reasoning is simply that BULLION IS UNDERVALUED."

All I can add to this is that investors are starting to wake up to the fact that Gold is uneconomical to mine at these levels, and they are buying up
what is dumped on the market by the Central Banks,
Bullion Dealers/Funds and last but not least the speculative Shorters.

A friend of mine who is a stock analyst and who has never been interested in Gold went out and bought a bar last week.
He is considering buying more.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 11:50 - ID#348286)
HEHEHE.... Good post.....

(Sat Dec 20 1997 11:53 - ID#256201)
J. Disney-re: american sloth
Blame it on the ease of brainwashing entire populations with "entertainment" thru the so-called media.
I am one of those who like you are disappointed in MY NATION. IT is no longer MINE or OURS. It is controlled ( synonymous w/ owned ) by the international elite who have for so long controlled finance as well as politics.
Don't let 'em kid ya! It's all about economics, not politics.
Don't fergit ol' Anselm Mayer Rothschild once made a profound utterance: "Let me control the money of a nation and it soesn't matter who ( thinks they ) control the politics.
Whuja fink cuntrols u.s.a. politics from WJBC down to the lowest deesipul of algore-ithm's?
Been there and done it in the gold mines as well as the uranium mines of the western U.S. for 10 years b 4 getting my B.S. in Behavioral Sciences ( Psy and Soc. ) Total of 1m yrs ( age 15 to 33 ) in real world b 4 college
Am new @ the stuff ususlly discussed on this forum. Learn a lot from all of you.
Because of extensive ( 32 yrs ) experience since postgraduate days as investigator, observer, provocateur, ad nauseum , feel I am able to glean the pearls from among the acorns. And other assorted pieces of sh!t. Mixed metaphor and appropos!
Haggis and y'all do me good! Wit AND knowledge. In our society today in the cultural sewer of the u.s. these traits seldom run together.
Don't have time for any learned discourse, as am on this site to learn! Lettin' y'all instruct. The y'all includes nearly everybody except carlito ( L'il carl ) use of lower case c deliberate!and lonely garrulous boy. ( or is it gay rather than garrulous?
G'bye fer naow from the beautiful Ouachita Mountains in Arkanses, which ( sadly ) gave birf to wjbc.
Off to enjoy the weekend.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 11:56 - ID#225127)
c-span, Washington Journal had a very good program on Japan and Asia. IMO it is well worth watching and supports the very intelligent dialog on Kitco.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 12:01 - ID#255151)

Nope, can't forget ol' Lafayette. My home state remembered him--Lafayette, Indiana.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 12:07 - ID#225283)

Did you catch the news blirb yesterday from Microsofts new was in reference to all the major publicly traded players that have or will be doing stock buyback deals ...

I don't recall the exact statement so I'll paraphraise Microsofts CFO was saying:

" thanks but no thanks...our stock is much to overvalued to even consider any type of a corporate buyback at this time or any time in the near future. Microsoft would not benefit from such a program at this time."

Well I will give him one for honesty....But PLEEEEEEAAASE
a statement like that could certainly do some damage to the stock price. I can only assume he is a contract employee with no options. Can someone out there explain to me why this guy would make such a statement ...even if it were factual??

Re: George S Coal...I recall seeing a post that he was heard from on an SI thread, but now that I hear from DA that someone is plagerizing ( spelling? ) him o'er yonder at the SI site it may have been the ghoast of George Coal.
Sure would like to hear his comments on things as this market goes thru some big changes. I would also like to know what he thought of the Venerouso conference call.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 12:07 - ID#22956)
thank you cyber friends for the good sentiment.............sure.....
In the words of the ONE and ONLY Great American left in the WHOLE WORLD ( Earth ) ... ( all the others moved from Virginia looooooong ago ) .....

"Can't we all just get along"?........

Rodney King.... get bored elsewhere

gototherfishtofryandyankstobash ( mybrothersareintown )

go gold.......fight on.....'til the end.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 12:08 - ID#368253)
Gold, and the 6 days after New Years

To all futures players, suggest you look at gold charts since 1975 for the movement in this metal both up and down.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 12:11 - ID#22956)
one the land of the loathed and pitied..............
GSC is Old us your face George... uncover truths throughtout this godforsaken land of milk and honey


(Sat Dec 20 1997 12:28 - ID#401349)
Good stuff, EB. There are some characters in this group -- odd
fellows and one or two peculiar ladies. It will make for a good party one of these days when the price of gold goes up and we can meet at the Maharajah's palace in Johdpur, India to celebrate -- surreal. Oh by the way, you're not really Forest Gump are you?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 12:29 - ID#411149)
John Disney- I understand the potential for Randgold, but what do you think about Durban Deep?

Tally Ho

(Sat Dec 20 1997 12:41 - ID#93232)
@ALL.....I'D RATHER HAVE A 409 THAN A 401K....
Thursday night I was talking to two Southwest Airlines' pilots and somehow I brought up gold ( hit the bid! ) versus securities. Anyway, they talked of their growing fear of a stock market crash and were concerned of its potential effects on their 401K's. I am not an expert on these plans...but these guys said that they had very little input on the holdings within their 401k's presumably, I surmise, because SW air administers the funds and securities are the investment of choice. For whatever reason, they were convinced that they couldn't get their plans out of the stock market. This phenomenon could help explain, to some degree, the seemingly endless capital going into stocks and mutual funds.

All being baby boomers, we went on to discuss the critical importance of retirement/pension funds due to the anticipated failure of social security. We wondered if the government might adjust social security payments downward to recipients that have 401K retirement income. The government's rationale being that the owner of the 401K has benefited from tax avoidance and somehow this could justify a "penalty" or a reduction in benefits. I certainly wouldn't put it past them.

So, no more of my dough goes into a 401K...and I think I'll liquidate and pay the taxes. And I think it's safe to assume tax rates will increase in the future. Any thoughts?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 12:49 - ID#57232)
Another eyeopener from sharefin: A Barron's Dec 22, 1997 article.

D.A. Comments on US inflation despite SEAsia price drops?

SDRer: Comments on why the SDR index of commodities is up 8x more than in US dollars, and industrial goods down 1/2 as much in SDR units than in dollar units? Looks like commodity prices in SDR units may be a better indicator of future inflation ( from foreign shores ) than in domestic dolars!

All: It appears that SEAsian production may actually be decreasing -- perhaps dramatically in some countries, like SKorea. Hopefully this is short-term. This latter possibility might further reduce deflationary pressures on the US, rather than increase them.

And the Barron's article follows:

Monday, December 22, 1997 "Lower prices may not indicate deflation"

By Michael Santoli:

At various times in recent years, the dreaded "D-word" that was said to be threatening global financial health was "debt," "default" or derivatives." Now comes a new alleged assailant, deflation, which a fair number of forecasters have been warning the markets to expect in the event of an Asian slowdown.

Always in these warnings is a recitation of the recent rollover of the commodity indexes stemming from major declines in the prices of base metals, gold, lumber and any number of other materials reliant on demand from Asia's heretofore fast-growing economies. So it seems a good time to revisit the links between commodity prices and inflation or deflation.

There are several holes that can be punched in the argument for commodity-driven deflation. First, economists forever caution against mistaking a rise or fall in some prices as inflation or deflation, which represent a real increase or decline in the general price level. While a linear foot of lumber has become cheaper, the cost of an hour's labor in this country is rising and the vast service sector is posting annualized inflation near 3%. The falling cost of a commodity, it should be remembered, is often in part just the flip side of an appreciating dollar. One way to glimpse this relationship is to peruse the Economist's commodity indexes, which the magazine compiles in terms of dollars, pounds sterling and the IMF's Special Drawing Rights. The SDR index for all items was recently up nearly eight times as much as the dollar index over the past year, and industrial-goods prices in SDR terms were down just half as much as their dollar equivalent -- a good sign that what looks like nascent deflation on these shores is largely the filtering effect of dollar-shaded glasses.

Wall Street analysts like to generate reports on the correlation of commodities with inflation, usually to show the strength of commodities as a portfolio hedge. Data on commodities' links with deflation aren't around because real deflation hasn't really been witnessed for any period since the Depression, but the inflation analyses would seem a good mirror-image proxy. Work by David Seaman at J.P. Morgan shows that the correlation over a 10-year stretch between the J.P. Morgan Commodity Index returns and the quarterly inflation rate was 0.41 ( with 1 being 100% correlation ) and was somewhat lower over 20 years. That means the JPMCI would be a potent hedge to financial assets, which are quite negatively linked to inflation. But it says little about the predictive power of commodity prices and inflation. Crude oil, probably the most important commodity in its final price impact, has shown a 10-year correlation of just 0.45.

Commodity indexes have proven considerably better at forecasting producer, as opposed to consumer, prices. But this isn't very helpful in figuring ultimate inflation, partly because basic materials represent a relatively small -- and shrinking -- portion of corporate expenses and their often-volatile prices are absorbed by producers far more than they are passed along to buyers.

The traditional harbingers of inflation pressure and expectations, base and precious metals, together make up just 9.4% of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, which is weighted by each good's proportion of global output.

The Fed, don't forget, also has access to the producer price index and is always striving to intercept inflationary or deflationary forces before they reach Americans' wallets. The details of the Fed's November meeting, released last week, showed just how mindful the governors were of the Asian crisis in deciding against the inflation-fighting maneuver of tightening monetary policy.

To Peter Schiff, a broker with EuroPacific Capital who believes inflation remains the main danger, there's another flaw in the logic of deflation adherents: "One reason commodities are weak is that Asian buyers are canceling orders. These are the inputs for their export products." So while import prices here may be pressured down, there likely won't be as much imported from Asian nations where current production levels are unaffordable.

There's no denying that the washout in many commodity markets is a disinflationary event and wouldn't stand in the way of true deflation, should such a rarity occur. But the cheapening of goods in dollar terms in itself tells us little about the chances of deflation. It only presents the deflated hopes of all those commodity bulls who were sure they'd ride the wave of Asian demand to riches.

Key Commodity Indexes

CRB Group Indexes 12/19 12/12 Yr. Ago CRB Futures 233.38 235.86 245.70 Industrials 215.06 215.82 269.85 Grains/Oilseeds 213.26 218.10 215.51 Livestock/Meats 241.03 242.30 253.19 Energy 188.58 187.44 220.91 Precious Metals 246.91 243.99 254.38


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Copyright c 1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 12:52 - ID#57232)
Future gold price?
Studio.R: How about 3-2-5--0? Ie 3,250 instead of 325?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 12:52 - ID#189273)
It's a safe bet that our social security benefits will be curtailed by ANY income we have coming in, and possibly asset holdings, too, by the time the boomers become too expensive for the Social Security money to support. But this year may not be the right one for you to pull your money out of the 401K. Take your time and crunch the numbers, comparing the cost to you, comparing this year to the next few. It's certainly not going to become an issue until after the next presidential election, so you have time to make the best move for yourself. Else, it could get unnecessarily expensive. Don't give them one penny more than you have to!

NJ, thanks for the Veneroso post of yesterday. Great post. Much to consider in that one.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:00 - ID#403267)
S R , I agree with your perceptions of 401k's and the public perceptions that they can't get out. I DO NOT know if this is a good time to pull the 401K, after all in some companies you can park in bonds, GIC's, Money Markets, which is what I have done. You can also loan against to pull 50% of your money out without any penalties and in essence pay interest to yourself. In our company with AM. EX. running it I can pull funds out of one type ( stocks to bonds whatever ) and into another every day, no charge.
I do agree that tax rates will be higher in the future and this is why the gov't so slyly forgoes its tax payments now. Never leave the dog guard the kitchen door.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:01 - ID#364147)
@ Liquor store confrontation
EB: check yer mail!....Does 'fuk you' mean Merry Christmas in Cape Breton??

(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:03 - ID#93232)
@JTF....three thousand eight hundred forty smackeroos and 40 centavos....
I revised the number downward to this amount....Karlito kind of got to me.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:05 - ID#257148)
america the beautiful
Ted. well it sure does down~under.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:06 - ID#364147)
VRONSKY: Scroll back to last night ( 8:46 I think ) and I told YOU about the fight then!! Snap out of it ( grin thing ) ~~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:08 - ID#403267)
US Bashers
So now if it weren't for the past efforts of US Males ( all colors but mostly white ) this century
What language would you be speaking NOW, Japanese, Chinese or Russian or something?

Maybe WE don't CARE anymore what language YOU will speak NEXT century?

See ya, wouldn't wanna be ya!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:08 - ID#364147)
Thanks bro---I was beginning to think this person ( ?? ) didn't like me!! Off to munch-a-bunch of brownies~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:12 - ID#286250)
JTF, Always & Ever directly on target!
Yes, yes, YES! This has been a focus of mine for quite sometime!
It is what actually got me started down this winding path; why was the Economist posting a PPI in SDR? and why did THAT index show double-digit inflation when the SDR is a basket of 5 currencies, all of whom were proclaiming low/no inflation?

Thank you JTF. Thank you Sharefin.
The folks on this board are The Force: focused minds sharing intelligence and working issues. W O N D E R F U L!
Thank you all!

I now must go do family Christmas duties. Take care my friends.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:18 - ID#417317)
Private Investor:

George S. Cole does post on the SI site occasionally, and he doesn't appear to be impersonating anyone but the GSC we all knew. He thinks the Veneroso discussion was excellent. This link may work:

(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:21 - ID#364147)
Aurator----you are right again!!
Aurator: With much research I discovered that 'fuk you' does indeed mean Merry Christmas in Gaelic~~~~~~~~~~am I relieved or what!! God bless the Cape Bretoners----cause they damn sure need it....bbl$$$$

(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:25 - ID#31876)
Steve Forbes on sound money....1995 revisited

(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:31 - ID#26669)
Gusto: GSC:
Well, if you ever get the chance to "talk" to George S. Cole, tell him that he is sorely missed. I realize he got tired of trying to deal with moronic insults from a couple of asses, but IMHO there were far more of us ( amateurs and newbys ) who thought he was a great teacher.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:48 - ID#65207)
Missing GSC the great teacher
223, I agree with you,

George S. Cole, tell him that
he is sorely missed.


(Sat Dec 20 1997 13:49 - ID#238295)
Gold Outlook
My take on the gold market at this time -- the gold bear probably is over or nearly so, but the next phase will not be a big bull. Rather we are about to enter the twilight zone between bear and bull known as base building.

The 1996-97 gold grizzly reflects several key factors all of which seem to be cresting. First we have had heavy selling by European CBs as postulated by FV. In true copycat fashion other CBs have joined the parade. And hedge funds -- well aware of the European CB game plan -- went massively short. The hedge funds were helped immeasurably by massive gold lending by CBs out to earn some income on their "sterile" bullion reserves.

Other key factors behind the gold bear include dollar's big surge against the currencies of most gold buying counties and the widespread perception that inflation is dead and buried in the U.S. The belief by many investors that labor is down for the count in its struggle with capital added frosting to the cake.

But now that gold has been driven down near production costs and mines are closing one after another, the key forces behind the gold bear seem to be cresting. European CB selling should ease up considerably by April 1998 at the latest. Global financial and political leaders now are well aware that the surging greenback must be curbed and curbed soon if the world is to avoid a deflationary depression. I suspect that few of them ( except for anti-gold fanatics such as Wayne Angell who worries whenever any but the most efficient miners earn a decent profit ) are interested in driving the price down further at this point. Indeed I anticipate strong efforts next year to reflate the global economy.

The recent defeat of fast track trade legislation and strong opposition to providing IMF additional funds to bail out investors shows that opposition to the concept of a global economy -- with all the hardships this implies for domestic workers -- is escalating rapidly.

But a major reversal in the opposite direction ( except for European CB selling ) will not develop overnight. The incredibly bearish market sentiment extent today will take time to reverse. That is why it is too early to chase gold stock rallies, but it is now time to start accumulating well diversified gold mutuals on weakness for potential doubles, triples, or better over the next few years.

Am I GSC in drag? Could be, but only the shadow knows.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:02 - ID#238295)
Chinese devaluation?
One further point. The major risk to the global economy and the gold market are the same -- a deep devaluation of the Chinese yuan. That would send all the Asian currencies plunging again.

This is a a big change from the days when the markets perceived that whatever helped gold would hurt the global economy. Now that a deflationary depression threatens the situation has reversed -- a rise in gold no longer is seen as a problem for the global economy and financial system unless it threatens to get out of hand. I do not think AG would mind gold going to $350 or eve $375 at this point. Over $400 would be a different story. Gold can go TOO LOW for the powers that be as well as TOO HIGH.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:03 - ID#225283)

I sat next to a SWA pilot on a flight to Dallas a while back and he explained that the bulk of his compensation was tied to stock options and performance of stock. In reference to the 401k I recall it was similar to other large corporations in that an allocation was to be elected : X% SW STOCK
ETC. ETC. but not a whole lot of flexibility or choices.
When the market tanks....many of these guys will be hurting ....because alot of them are holding on to their options far to long....and as jyou can see a big bear would affect each an every 401k plan.What they need is a BEARX of X% in the 401k.

Charles Keeling
(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:15 - ID#344225)
A very good write up! Especially about
the need for the US dollar to be much
lower against other currencies if the
powers that be really want to have a
global economy.

I used to be in the export business to
Latin America and the Caribbean. When
the currency would weaken in those
countries my business with them would
totally dry up, as they could no
longer afford the software, hardware &
services that I offered.

Sales to thoose countries whose
currencys have been revalued down by
40-50 & 100 % will no longer be able
to buy from the US. Some think that
this will effect the US GDP by only
.5 %. I think that it will be at
least 2.5%.

In past years, one of the most
effective indicators for future
inflation was the price of gold.

Since gold has been "manipulated"
lower by unwise CB selling, this
indicator that Angel loves so much
is no longer functioning. Yet, he
looks to low gold prices and says:
"see---no sign of inflation." At
the same time, M3 surges ahead.

Could it be that without a reliable
early warning indicator we may see
inflation catch the Fed asleep at
the switch?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:17 - ID#23195)
I have the impression someone wrote more or less the same lines befor you

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:18 - ID#65207)
KWG from SI

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:22 - ID#301318)
Russian Devaluation?
Old Gold & others:
The Russians are to chop off "0"'s from their currency on the 1st of Jan.
I have seen very little discussion of this here or elsewhere with regards to gold and US$. Any comments on the global, macro effects of this action? Particularly to gold and platinum?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:24 - ID#225283)
GTE air phone

Just spoke to my wife at 30,000 feet and 1000's of miles away..crystal clear sound...What a wonderful hi tech world we live in today...she said to say hi to everyone at Kitco claiming I spend more time glued to this site than in the true pursuit of profits or making the world a better place. Speaking of air travel the Doc may release me to Fly short hops on Monday and I was just wondering if anyone has had any luck with connecting to the www while inflight?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:28 - ID#225283)

This is old news...they were even considering slashing two zeros off for a while...I posted about this in the past but got little or no responce. Thesched. date has been for some time in January...If anyone has any information on this I would love to hear about current facts and confirmations. Thank you.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:33 - ID#23195)
Dont get airsick.Planes always come down,sometimes they even CRASH!!!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:35 - ID#225283)
ALOHA .....BBl

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:36 - ID#227238)
Roebear ( US Bashers ) : ( EB: I hope you were joking on the R. King thing ) Amigo, you speak of what we were. Not what we have become. A nation that dwells on its past has no future.

Here in Puddle City, this week and just in time for Christmas, we have been served by the young who found it interesting to:

1. Paint some swastikas on cars at a Jewish religious function.

2. Cut throught the chain link fence at the local Goodwill operation and decimate their fleet of trucks.

3. In this AM paper an account of several carloads of future voters who felt compelled to attack a couple of defenseless tree sellers. All in retaliation for being admonished, the previous evening, for breaking empty ( alcholic ) beverage bottles in the sellers parking lot. One victim, a father of 28 years, may not survive. Suffering, as he did, a baseball bat to the side of the head. This incident, BTW, ocurred in an prosperous suburb where it would be difficult to ascribe motivation to disfuncional economic circumstances.

It may be wrong to attribute these viscious acts to our young ...... but, in modern day America, it is seldom incorrect.

Charles Keeling
(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:37 - ID#344225)
RE: Russian devaluation.

I was dealing with Argentina when they
chopped of several "0'S". Along with
that move they froze all of the
dollar accounts in the banks, and
discontinued the purchase of ANYTHING
in terms of US dollars. Then they
privatized the majority of the state
run businesses. It finally ended
serious inflation in that country.

I wonder if Russia will freeze all
dollar account? They have been very
busy privatizing of late.

I suspect that they will be selling
to other countrys while not buying
anything, using hard currencies, for
quite awhile.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:43 - ID#225283)

Doesn't bother me at all... I learned how to fly when I was sixteen years old....safer than crossing the street at Broad & Wall St. Unless you fly in Russian airlines , or BRE-X copters ( as a Fillopino geologist that has a habit of salting samples ) .

He should have brought his parachute when those nice govt. fellows offered him a ride. How come we have not heard any more about the Bre-X BK filing...Where is that at these days? BBL Aloha

John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:46 - ID#24140)
Dbn - deep
for Ray

I think DD is going to have a really lousy quarter. But at a higher

gold price I think it will be great - It's very marginal. So is harmony.

I tend to like Harmony the better of the two. It is a really solid

mining operation - but its grade is low and it cant get its costs

much under 300. I am told that if the harmony miners were at Kloof

- all 3 of kloofs operations would be profitable and it would be the

world's top mine. Harmony by the way has become very cheap now.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:49 - ID#225283)
Earl Check out AE reports right now on cable JUVI JUSTICE

Charles Keeling
(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:49 - ID#344225)

A big problem that occurs when you
have suffered severe inflation and
common bank notes are $100,000.00
instead of 100.00:

You reach a point where computer
programs no longer have enough room
to store totals in the amount fields
that were previously allocated.

You either re-program all of the
computers in the effected country, or
you chop off the zeroes.

I still have a whole bunch of
100,000.00 Argentine notes. Any
body want them? Talk about fiat

Gusto Oro
(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:56 - ID#377235)
Catch 'em and cane 'em.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:56 - ID#23195)
I heard Boeing is recalling its 747's due to technolegy problems,they seem to explode in the air.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 14:57 - ID#269191)
Rapid M3 growth will not cause price inflaton!
I've noticed several posts intimating that the recent surge in M3 growth
will lead to price inflaton. I think this view is wrong because it ignores the role of velocity. Rapid money growth will not produce higher
price inflation if the velocity of turnover is declining. The equation
is MV=PT. Velocity of turnover has been declining in the U.S. since the
early 80's hence more rapid money growth than the 70's in the 80's did
not produce a return to double digit inflation rates. The reason for the
decline in velocity is the geometric expansion of credit. With the expansion of debt, a greater portion of each marginal dollar created goes
to servicing the expanding debt and less to the real economy. This accounts for the so-called Keyensian liquidity trap also known as the
central bank "pushing on a string".

This same phenomenon happened in the 20's, the last time a major credit
expansion topped-out and came to an end. The Fed expanded the basic
money supply by an average 6.4% in the 20's without price inflation even
though the economy grew sluggishly in real terms. The massive credit
expansion showed itself in rapidly inflating financial asset prices ( sound
familiar? ) . The 20's like now were also a period of tremendous capital
investment, most of which was revealed as suspect in the ensuing collapse. The same thing will happen when this latest credit expansion

John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 15:07 - ID#24140)
The Marvellous Media
for a.j.

I think you have put your finger on it. The US used to be great.

Take Baseball on the RADIO. I loved it. I remember the Giants and the

Dodgers. - Sal the Barber Maglie, His Nemesis Carl Furillo, Antonelli,

and football with sam HUFF and c Bednarik _ I dont even like to watch

it much now - they make too much money and the FUN went out of it - sorry.

Fighters like Lamotta, robinson, Moore, Basilio - fighting is pretty

lousy now. Holyfield is good but jesus - biting somebody's ear - I think

Tyson should be put down.

Im sorry Roebear - the US WAS great - but something happened - when

we weren't looking - Maybe it was the Vietnam war the Nixon years women's

rights then the carter looney tune period ( but by then it was done - I had decided to leave ) - I just didnt like it any more.

Maybe some of the way I felt was because I could no longer find the

things I had known when I was a kid.

Its like Clintons speech - so smoothe so practiced so false so self

serving - who needs that crap.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 15:22 - ID#344308)
john disney@604---

history has set the stage for every step i cognizantly take.

my dad, an incredible hard core goldbug 80 years young ( strong as a BEAR )
blew my mind this morning when i talked to him in mena, arkansas.
i told him of silver and how it had rallied quite mightily. he
responded 'oh, really' as if it were nothing to him. his silver&gold
holdings are massive btw. i asked why he was not excited. his response
was 'i don't give a dad damn if it goes to $100oz, it is there for another purpose. i'll be eating when others are starving and begging from the gov't. sons-of-bitches have no idea how bad it was in the depression.
just wait, "they" will do it again, and take 100 times more than "they"
took in the great depression.' his books on the great leeches of
that time---rockefeller, getty, morgan, etc...-------the pictures
are indeliby burned into my mind. his un-wavering commitment to a
position of power when the NEXT wave hits, speaks volumes! imagine
the helplessness that washed over the masses during the depression!
no jobs. no savings. breadlines. no hope. nothing to do but wait and
HOPE the economy will get better. nothing to do but realize that a
handfull of ultra-wealthy had just pocketed 99% of the wealth of
the working stiffs of america. nothing to do but realize that they
controlled YOU as well.

some began planning. some began accumulating that which would bear
the onslaught of another raping of the masses. a gold and silver
chastity belt of massive proportions. this is a real goldbug....
they know much better than we, the implications and ramifications
of the next great depression.

john d-----

shoot from the hip---aim for their lip....

the secret is knowledge. knowledge from reading. reading is the
greatest gift anyone can give themselves. ( history, scientific,
science fiction, and more history ) next is the experience of life,
and knowing each moment is a gift!! live in the 'now' and all else
falls into place. kr is right----------thanks kr.....

when enough material is finally digested, things begin 'connecting'
where there was no connection before. there is no question which
direction to take. there is no question how to take it. take the
first step....

the fractionation of different ethnic groups, and their demands
for special treatment due to their special status, is going
to cause the sleeping giant to awaken and eventually lash-out.
we feel the heat----male, white, ----affirmative action...bull sh!t.
it is blatant reverse discrimination! i'll never forget in 1984
after mobil oil bought superior oil and brought their 'vision'
to the most progressive and largest independent oil co.--superior oil--
their 'new vision' totally incorporated affirmative action into
their hiring and promotional procedures. they put ALL promotions on
hold until they acheived their 'new quota' of 33% white, 33% minority,
and 33% female employees respectively, through-out their organization!!
those of us in-line for promotions were pushed out of the way while
in-competents ( all races and genders ) were promoted or hired into
positions where they had no business. we went from super-lative, to
less than mediocre in 1 day!! mediocrity became the cry! sig's suck.
minority? bull sh!t. americans all, with equal treatment for all.
there are too many sleepwalkers for things to change. until their
stomach starts to growl, or the tv ( en-slaver-of-minds ) is out, or
there is no fuel for cars, there will be sleepwalkers in growing

the white male has been villified by the afro-worldians for being
the monster of slavery. who started slavery? the africans raided,
murdered, AND enslaved their own people for thousands of years
before they ever saw a white man. the first whites they saw were
dutch, portugese, and spainairds. these same groups bought slaves
from the dominant tribes to sell the world over. the africans
started slavery, we ended-up getting the rap ( music sucks ) , AND the 'black eye' for en-slaving blacks. total bs, yet who is PAYING for 'it'?
white, males------and the economy, due to having subliminals
promoted due to color or race..instead of ability...

hot damn.....i'm hopping mad now!!!!! john, it's all your fault!!!; )

bbl, gotta re-charge the ssm and loop-the-loop------

the pendulum is going to have a field day splitting these SIG's
into their individual components. it'll be really cool....
there will be a whole bunch of little fools, instead of one big fool!!

cherokee!; ) ---american----------with-a-propensity-for-arrows-------

(Sat Dec 20 1997 15:24 - ID#238295)
Some here have attributed the tendency of gold to fall on days when the stock market was tanking to a conspiracy by the CBs and the shorts. Seems to me the real reason for this correlation was the fact that the currencies and stock markets of gold buying nations generally were tanking along with U.S. stocks.

I do believe the gold bull will be slow in coming, but once it arrives it will hit with a vengeance. And a new gold bull may not mean the end of the world for financial markets. Gold and stocks both did well in 1993; this could happen again -- especially if the Dow falls to 6000 or so by next spring.

APH: Cy Harding can also blow it. Some months ago he was predicting a 40% drop in the stock market during the final quarter of 1997.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 15:26 - ID#426220)

Speed & ALL: In REF to ( @Barrons ) Randall W. Forsyth article about U.S. Treasuries held in custody for foreign central banks by the Fed have fallen by more than $32 billion. The monumental significance of these data portends dire consequences for the U.S. stock market.

The following analysis are not the original thoughts of this writer - credit must go to Randall W. Forsyth, who in early 1996 first discovered the uncanny relationship between foreign Central Banks increased holdings of U.S. Treasuries and the unprecedently long bull market in Wall Street stocks. Forsyth's initial recognition of the correlation was published early last year in Barron's. Subsequently, Economist George S. Cole mentioned the relevance of the two factors in several of his Internet postings earlier this year. The contribution of this writer was to expand upon the original thoughts of Forsyth and Cole. -

(Sat Dec 20 1997 15:27 - ID#426220)

Noted U.S. stock market expert continues to lean towards Dow 5700-6400 being seen sometime in front of the middle of next year, regardless of how high it might get in early '98 weeks ( which is absolutely the Street's plan, but clearly capable of being derailed by even hints of news, which should worry traders, especially this time of year ) . In fact he asserts, If anything my Dow leanings might be too optimistic ( by about a thousand Dow points or so ) . Regarding current market action, he gleefully says, "WOW, I'm glad we're SHORT!"

1998 looks grim for common stocks:

Charles Keeling
(Sat Dec 20 1997 15:38 - ID#344225)
RE: Increase in M3.

Enjoyed your last post. I agree that it
appears we face deflation instead of
inflation. Mostly because of the flow
of cheap imports from overseas. Also
because labor costs in the US are
being held low in order to have a chance
at competing against overseas merchandise.
Unions are also pretty much in check.

But, I remimber the late 20's. There was
price inflation and a booming stock market.

This time it appears we have just
"financial asset" inflation. I have to
assume that this is because we now have
global markets furnishing us goods made
by cheap labor. Things are different
this time around, but it appears that
the end result will be the same.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 15:44 - ID#333131)
IMF predictions today
1:41 PM ( ET ) 12/20 IMF Sees Global Financial Slowdown
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The financial firestorm raging through Asia will leave no country untouched in 1998. Around the world, economic growth will slow and unemployment will rise, especially in nations at the center of the crisis. The United States can expect to see a big increase in its trade deficit.
That's the view of the International Monetary Fund, which is releasing its most extensive assessment so far of the currency crisis that has forced the lending agency to assemble multibillion-dollar bailout packages for Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea.
Because of the rapidly deteriorating situation, the IMF updated its October "World Economic Outlook" with new economic projections for 1998. The document was made public Saturday, although the IMF's had scheduled a Sunday release.
"The repercussions in regional and global financial markets ... have proven much deeper and more extensive than seemed likely only a few months ago," the IMF report said. "The economic implications can now be expected to be more serious."
The IMF projected that the global economy in 1998 will grow at its slowest pace in five years, an increase of just 3.5 percent. That forecast represented a 0.8 percentage-point reduction from two months ago, when the IMF had projected worldwide economic growth at 4.3 percent.
The overall number covers wide differences among countries and regions. For the United States, the IMF forecast economic growth of 2.4 percent next year, down 1.4 percentage points from expected growth of 3.8 percent this year.
About to enter its eighth year of expansion, the U.S. economy already had been expected to slow in 1998. The Asian fallout will reduce growth further. The biggest fallout will come from a widening current account trade deficit, which the IMF predicted will surge by 29 percent to $230 billion next year as weakness in Asia slows U.S. export sales and currency devaluations make Asian goods cheaper for Americans.
The rising trade deficit will present political problems for President Clinton, who has already seen his push for expanded trade-negotiation powers stalled by rising protectionist pressures in Congress.
The IMF predicted the Asian crisis will have an even bigger impact in Japan, the world's second economy, with growth cut almost in half from the October forecast to just 1.1 percent. The agency said Europe, less dependent on Asian export markets, will see growth reduced just 0.1 percentage point from the IMF's October estimate to a revised forecast of 2.7 percent.
By far the biggest adverse effects will be in Asian countries hit in recent months by bank failures, plunging currencies and stock market turmoil. The IMF slashed its growth estimate for South Korea by 3.5 percentage points to 2.5 percent, and reduced Indonesia's by 4.2 percentage points to 2 percent. Thailand, where the troubles began last July, will see no output expansion in 1998.
IMF economists said the sharp growth slowdowns, coming after two decades of rapid growth in Asia, will feel like deep recessions. The economists predicted sizable increases in unemployment, although the report gave no specifics. Private forecasters have said as many as 1 million people will be thrown out of work next year in South Korea alone.
"The type of slowdowns we are going to see in Southeast Asia will be decidedly negative. Undoubtedly, people are going to feel the pain of adjustment," said Michael Mussa, director of economic research for the IMF.
The agency cautioned its revised forecast still could prove overly optimistic. A rebound in Asia starting in late 1998 is assumed, based on the pattern of the 1995 currency crisis in Mexico, where after a deep but brief recession growth resumed in 1996.
But Mussa said a number of downside risks exist, especially if countries delay painful reform measures such as increasing interest rates to support their currencies and restraining domestic demand to reduce trade deficits.
"The major source of uncertainty is how long this turmoil will go on and whether additional countries will get pulled in," he said.
For the United States and other industrial countries, the biggest risk will be that continued turmoil in financial markets will undermine consumer confidence. The latest example of that came Friday, when U.S. investors were shaken by sharp declines in Asian markets.
The IMF, criticized for failing to foresee the impending problems, argued it has been raising alarms about the need to address economic imbalances in various countries.
copyright 1997 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserve

(Sat Dec 20 1997 15:48 - ID#238295)
More from FV:

BC: Frank, first of all, I'd like to say thanks very much for that somewhat detailed overview on gold markets
and gold flows. I would actually lead off with the first question. By the way, I'm Brad Cooke, President of
Canarc, and after I'm done anybody else who had questions please feel free to state your name and question
for Frank Veneroso.


BC: Frank, on the one hand, I'm reading in various newspapers and magazines today that the U.S. economy
is so strong that ultimately the markets, not only the American markets, but markets abroad, will be driven by
this huge engine of growth in the United States. That's one predominant opinion expressed in the media
today. The other view is that the U.S. dollar is on a bubble, like you just pointed out, that the deflation of
other currencies is overdone and that ultimately the U.S. dollar is in trouble, or could be in trouble next year.
How does the market reconcile those two very different positions?

FV: Look, the market doesn't think. I'm very serious about this. A mere year ago, the market was throwing
money at Southeast Asia, there was a growth miracle, there was nothing wrong. Today, the markets have
depreciated the Southeast Asian stock markets to an extraordinary degree. It is very very hard for me to justify
either extreme. I was an advisor to emerging country governments from 1971 to 1989 and I have some sort of
historical perspective on what's an extreme in this business. What I'm seeing in Southeast Asia and the
Southeast Asian currencies now is beyond anything I could have imagined. If you take a look at Southeast
Asia, it is a current account surplus block. China has a huge current account surplus, Taiwan has a huge
current account surplus. Some of these countries that are supposed to be problem countries like Korea have
only had a current account deficit of 4% of GDP at the peak. So I don't think
the markets really think about these things. I think that markets these days go to bigger extremes than they did
in the past.

About U.S. economic strength, it's very true that the U.S. is a very strong economy. We have a strong
economy when most of our trading partners have had weak economies. This has resulted in high interest rates
in the United States because we're at a late stage of an expansion against very low interest rates abroad
because they're very close to recession or at least they have high levels of unutilized resources. This large
interest rate differential is drawing capital flows into the United States and strengthening the dollar. But if you
take a long term view you're not
going to have this degree of cyclical asynchrony in the world economy in the future. You're not going to have
the U.S. economy at the end of a boom all the time while Europe and Japan have tremendous amounts of slack
and there is recession in a lot of the emerging world. I can assure you that, if you go out 5 years from now,
we're going to find that the tables are turned. When the tables are turned we'll have lower interest rates, not
higher interest rates, in the U.S. And these interest rate differentials will turn capital flows the other way and
unseat the dollar. I think what's really key here is that this is a very unique cyclical asynchrony that cannot
persist; it's currently supporting the dollar but it will not support the dollar in the future.

BC: OK. Thanks for that Frank. Does anybody else have a question for Frank Veneroso on gold?

John Hugate, Chairman of Misty Gold:

I've got a question. I'd like to hear your thoughts Frank on how oversold you believe gold is.

FV: I don't think about the gold market as being oversold. I know this sounds silly, but it's not a normal
market, it's not a market where you've got a lot of longs that are bailing out. The demand side of this market is
jewelry demand and bar hoarding demand by small people all over the world. They buy larger amounts on a
scale down. They tend to spend a certain fixed amount of their income on gold. When gold becomes cheaper
on a per ounce basis, their income buys more ounces. What drives this market is supply. It's not mine supply
because mine supply is really quite static in the short run. It's actually quite static in the long run as well. Mine
supply grows at a very slow rate under virtually all conditions. What drives this market is the flow of central
bank gold. This flow of central bank gold is the sum of central bank sales and borrowed gold flows from
various sources. As these flows intensify, they drive the price down so that the income of all these little people
all across the world can absorb the larger number of ounces that the central banks are selling. It's a market that
is driven by supply. The way to really think about the market is, "When will the supply that's driving it down
abate?". Now, it's my
view that we now have an extreme unsustainably intense flow and that it will abate. And so, the term
"oversold" seems less relevant to me in a market that has this kind of a market clearing mechanism.

John: As a follow on that Frank - What condition would have to persist or be created to cause central banks to
buy as opposed to sell?

FV: Well, in this book we're coming out with, I do a lot of historical studies to show that, over the long run,
gold's appreciation in real terms exceeds the real interest return on government bills. If you take a long enough
historical perspective, it's not hard to see that. Most people think the gold price went up a lot after 1971
because it was held down by central
banks. In fact, if you look at the record it was actually supported by central banks in 1971. So the whole
increase in the gold price from 1971 to 1996 was a free market rise in the price. Well, the real return to gold
over that period was 5%. Treasury bills have never yielded anything like 5% in real terms for so long a time.
Now, I believe that at some point in the future gold's long run real return will become manifest. The real
rationale for most central bankers for selling gold today is that it doesn't have a return. The real rationale for a
lot of people who are going short is that it's a very low cost borrowing. In fact neither is true over the long
run. These central banks and short sellers are looking at the last 5 or 10 years of a bear market that is a recoil
from a huge bull market that occurred in the 1970's. They basically have backward looking expectations. They
think that the last 5 or 10 years is what the future will be like. Eventually, market participants will come to
realize that gold's commodity dynamics generate a positive real return. And when that happens, I think that
some central banks will be more inclined not to sell and other central banks will be more inclined to buy.

Bruce Paid??, Morgan Stanley:
Frank can you quantify, or at least touch on, the role of the options' activity in the gold market and is there any
way of getting some kind of a handle as to what this action for position may actually be in the market?

FV: Are you on the gold trading desk?

Bruce: No, I'm not. I just manage private money.

FV: OK, well look, go to your gold trading desk and ask them about this. Once again, we've discussed this in
this book. There are 100,000 put options on Comex and 350,000 call options on Comex. What does that tell
us? Comex is the tip of the iceberg. The OTC market in gold is 10
times the Comex. We've taken a look at this and we've said, OK, there's a great deal of double counting in all
of this. A lot of option exposure is hedged from one dealer to another or on to the Comex and then from the
Comex back to the OTC market. What percentage of this grossed up market is the true net position of this
market? We did a bunch of calculations and we concluded that the total net face value of these options is about
4,000 tonnes and the delta on these options is probably about 1,000 to 1,800 tonnes. Part of this option
position is producer in origin, most of it is central bank in origin. This delta probably accounts for 1,000 to
tonnes of total gold borrowings which we estimate at about 8,000 tonnes. This option structure provides a
certain amount of resistance to the gold price when the gold price rises, but for certain technical reasons, this
resistance is only transitory. Basically what happens is that those options are short dated. They soon get
re-written. When they get re-written to a higher strike price, this selling pressure that emerges on any rally
abates. Options complicate the dynamics of the gold market but they don't really change it. If you talk to your
dealers about it, they might agree about this. I've talked to some dealers and they think my estimate of the delta
on the total option book of the market of about 1,000/1,800 tonnes is not out of the ballpark. They see their
own books. They estimate what percentage of the overall market they are. Then they project from that and
come up with a number that's of that magnitude.

BC: So Frank, this is Brad Cooke again. At the outset here today you said that you estimated about half of the
difference between gold demand and gold supply is filled by either central bank sales or central bank lending.
You also, in your research this year, talked about the slingshot
effect on the downside when the shorts get hold of gold and of course on the upside when they cover. You
haven't talked about short covering here today. Do you want to say something about that?

FV: Yes. I wrote a piece after we broke in July ( I guess it was around August ) . Basically I thought that the big
break that occurred then was due to fund short selling and I'm sure fund short selling was a big contributor to
it. The market was supported by physical demand and I believe by some Asian central bank buying. The
market then built a base and rallied up to 330. At that particular point in time we had a giant short position in
the market. At any other time in history, once you broke above 330 you would've exploded. We broke above
330, we had a huge amount of short covering, literally 500, 700, 800 tonnes in a very short period of time and
the market was absolutely contained by central bank selling. The big central bank selling that's probably been
the problem late this year hasn't occurred here, but occurred on that rally. What that did was to provide a huge
amount of gold to the market that let the shorts out. Then the shorts were free to go short again once the price
went down. Once that rally above 330 failed and we started down again, the funds started to go to the short
side again. But the market was already saturated with all the central bank gold that was thrown into the teeth of
that short selling rally. Now, I'll also say that the central bank selling has persisted, and persisted in a very
uncharacteristically savage way. I mean, these guys have been beating up the dealers. This is very unusual.
Central banks normally have operated through the BIS. Then selling was done with a great deal of discretion,
it was done very cooperatively with dealers. We're hearing stories about dealers taking losses, getting set up
by central banks, saying this is how much we're going to sell, there's no more behind it. All of a sudden all
the other gold dealers get hit with a couple hundred thousand ounces and the dealer gets bagged. I must say,
it's very
very uncharacteristic. But, at some point, this large short position will unravel. Whether or not you get the
sling shot effect, whether you get a powerful rally or not, will depend upon whether or not there's a very very
large volume of central bank selling or producer selling or both into the teeth of the short covering rally. My
guess is that, when these big central banks are done, yes, there'll be central banks that will sell into the teeth of
that rally, but the quantities will be less. And then the short covering rally that materializes will be substantial.

BC: Another question for Frank?

Judy Lipton: Yes. I've heard some rumours that between '61, and let's say Nixon, that U.S. may have ended
up losing a lot of their gold supplies. Is there any real way of quantitating what the fed has and if they don't
have what we think is there some way for it to be known so that it may effect the market's reactions?

FV: I have no opinion on this. I've heard this talk and there are other analysts that have opinions about it. I
really don't. I assume that the U.S. has the gold it says that it has and I wouldn't know how to figure out

Judy: OK thank you.

Ramon???? Manager of ??? Gold Mines:
Yes, I have a question please. Mr. Veneroso, there is another central bank outside the European union which
is of the Swiss central bank which we found being pressured from the coming of the European Central Bank
and now huge selling of gold. Actually you didn't explain the ??? because they didn't have to announce it
really last year and they made a big move.

FV: You want me to comment on the planned Swiss sale?

Ramon: Yes.

FV: OK. First of all, as you know, you need a change in the constitution through a referendum in order to sell
the gold in the Swiss central bank. This is not going to be an easy referendum to win. It's not going to be easy
because the current polls show about an even split between those who oppose and those who are for this gold
sale. But, in order to be able to get the referendum to pass, you need not only a popular majority, a majority
among all the voters, but you need a Cantonal majority. The Cantons have very skewed population makeups.
The more liberal type of people that are more inclined to vote for the referendum, that is for gold sales, are
concentrated in the cities, therefore, in the urban Cantons. Those who are more likely to be opposed, the more
conservative, are in the rural Cantons and there are far more rural Cantons than there are urban Cantons. So, if
you have an even split in the polls for the popular vote
on the referendum you will probably lose the Cantonal vote. The Swiss authorities know they have an uphill
battle. They have therefore given themselves a lot of time to prepare their campaign to win. Now, they're
going to have a lot of opposition. Christoff Blocher, who is the head of
the opposition party, has decided to campaign against the referendum and Blocher has tended to win in most
of these referendums. The Swiss National Bank and the Government have given themselves a lot of time to
produce the propaganda to create the change in thinking and sentiment in Switzerland needed for the
referendum to pass. That's why they've announced it early, that's why they had a special panel appointed to
make an independent recommendation and the like. There will not be any Swiss sales until probably the year
2000 if the referendum passes. The referendum doesn't occur until sometime well into 1999. My own belief is
that the referendum is not going to pass. If we have a split in the popular majority we're going to lose the
Cantonal vote and if they lose the Cantonal vote there'll be no gold sales. Some of the officials in the Swiss
National Bank have privately told some of my friends who know them well, that the referendum will not pass.
It is not the Swiss issue that is weighing on the gold market, it's physical gold sales by central banks today
and physical gold borrowings from central banks today.

Ramon: Yes, but I mean the Swiss Central Bank didn't make this move with the aim of losing the referendum
but with the aim to win it of course and I would like just to have an explanation of why they did such a thing
because they really changed their politics.

FV: Look, it is my view that there are a lot of bureaucrats in central banks today who don't believe in gold.
They believe it is an asset inherited from another era, it is barren, it does not bear interest; therefore it should
be sold and put into some kind of an interest bearing
security. I think that the Swiss National Bank officials are of this line of thinking. They seized on the
holocaust fund as an opportunity to get the constitution changed, which would allow for this diversification
out of gold into government securities. I also feel that they may have made a miscalculation, they did not think
they would be confronted with as much opposition as they're facing.

Unknown person: Frank I have a question that hasn't been answered as to how it would effect gold, and this
in retrospect to Japan because we're not going into a 10 minute desecration. To me, Japan's entire financial
system is built around a value with company shares and that foundation is in the process of crumbling. If the
Japanese market does tend to crumble, they
have a U.S. 1929 stock market disaster, how would that effect go? Japan is a strong nation, we're not talking
about Korea now, we're not talking about the Netherlands or Belgium, we're talking about a very strong

FV: Quickly, there is going to be a move before that happens to monetize the debt in the banks, to take the
huge bad debts off the backs of the banks. In effect there's going to be more extreme reflationary measures
than have already occurred. That might be somewhat negative for
gold if it weakens the currency and thereby drives the yen price of gold up which will ration down demand.
On the other hand, in the past, because the Japanese have a long tradition of hoarding gold, events like this
have stimulated gold investing. In 1995, when there was a run on the banks, there was a big surge in bar
hoarding in Japan. It has since abated. There are signs that it's recurring now. Japan will get negative real
interest rates; in the long run that should stimulate bar hoarding in Japan.

RC: Ladies and gentlemen, we have approximately 5 minutes left and I have a call from Switzerland. Oswaldo
Carciente please go ahead.

Oswaldo Carciente:
Thank you. Frank, I have two questions. The first question is what is the credit risk involved in all this central
bank borrowing. They have been lending all this gold, the question is how can they be guaranteed of getting
the gold back? 2nd question is, you've talked very well about this market had been oversupplied and that has
been the major problem and as you very well know, gold markets and ??? only happen with major investment
demand and basically that's the swing factor which will eventually make things look completely different
because right now what you are looking at is investment. What do you think about the prospect of investment

FV: Well first of all, I don't think that you need investment demand to have a rally in the gold price. I think all
you need is to have an end to official disinvestment and gold borrowing. I won't disagree with you that, in the
1970's, investment demand caused the bull market, that's true, but I think right now the model of the gold
market that's appropriate is much more a commodity flow supply/flow demand model. If you reduce the
supply, the price will go up. I don't want to speculate right now on investment demand. I think we're too far
removed from that. Yes, there will be investment demand at some point in the future. I can see a lot of things
happening on the world macro scene that could create investment demand. But that's a very complex issue, so
I'm loathe to really comment on it. This market will turn up because you will get an abatement of the central
bank flow and an unwinding of the speculative short positions which are the real investment or speculative
positions in the market today.

BC: So Frank, I think at this juncture I'd like to rap up. I want to thank you first of all for giving us the
pleasure of your views today. There's many many questions that were not asked of you that I think you some
very interesting views on. Canarc's proposing to do a transcript of
today's call and if anybody would like a transcript, please contact Robert Carriere at our office over the next
day or two. Frank as you know does proprietary research into global market, specializing in gold flows. He
didn't throw out numbers for instance on how low gold was going to go this month or how high it's going to
go next month but I think his contacts and knowledge in the bullion market can give you clear indications of
the direction gold is going. I have a number of questions with regard to the Asian crisis and I think the U.S.
dollar is in fact going to be somewhat weaker next year, but I think we'll save those questions for another
time. So Frank, I want to thank you very much and if anybody who's listening in wants to receive your
research or in fact the gold book that you have out in January they are also welcome to contact Robert Carriere
here at Canarc. So that's it for now, thank you very much.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:12 - ID#23195)
To John Disney:I lived as kid for about 7 years in the US ( Arlington
Virginia ) In spite of I was a french speaking foreigner going to a french
school in DC most contacts with the american people and american society was very good,we had a great time.
When I went back to Europe ( Brussels ) grew up and learned more about American politics I changed my mind completely not about the american people but about the american system and government.
So I can understand your deception

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:12 - ID#23195)
To John Disney:I lived as kid for about 7 years in the US ( Arlington
Virginia ) In spite of I was a french speaking foreigner going to a french
school in DC most contacts with the american people and american society was very good,we had a great time.
When I went back to Europe ( Brussels ) grew up and learned more about American politics I changed my mind completely not about the american people but about the american system and government.
So I can understand your deception

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:16 - ID#57232)
tolerant1 - your 9:41
I agree with Carl 100%. You read what you see and learn, just as I, and many others on this site. Unfortunately there are some who may read, but rarely learn. We know who they are. There is a world of difference between you and them.

We can only hope that eventualy they learn what they are missing. But the process cannot be accelerated, no matter how much we might wish it to be.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:18 - ID#333131)
US consumer: the big question.
It seems to me that more and more the US consumer is being counted on to carry the world finacial system and economies through this meltdown. Already burdended with 1.2 trillion in revolving debt, they are expected to continue to spend. It seems there is a universal assumption that the SE Asian economies will be able to export themselves out of their problems with cheap goods and pay back the capital required to keep the finacial system from a downward default spiral. But suppose the US consumer doesn't come through. A slowdown in spending in the US would send shock waves throughout the whole system. Combined with upward pressure on interest rates from repatriation of dollars required abroad, a slowdown in the US would wreak havoc on profits already under pressure from cheaper imports. Litterally trillions of dollars in wealth would be lost from peoples personal balance sheets by the "adjustment" in stock prices.

Does the IMF have a clue to how much paper would be required in an effort to fend off such a senario? Does the Fed expect to be able to keep the US consumer spending? How?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:20 - ID#335184)
Keeling & DEJ 1920's
Actually inflation was not apparent in non financial assetts in the 20's. World prices peaked in ( 1921 ) & remained stable from 1925 untilthe depression.
'even thoughprices were quite stable the boom was clearly inflationary the factwholesale & consumer prices are stable, as they were in the 1920's, & again in the 1960's, is no assurance that inflationary forces are not at work. Price increases, as the late Professor Walter Spahr often emphasized, are merely a sympton of inflationary pressures. Inflation may, & very often does, take the form of a vast increase in credit & the supply of money, a large growth inthe public corporat & private debt, & sharply rising security & real estate prices- al of which was the case during the 1920's."

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:22 - ID#255284)
Gomt is as Gomt does....
Earl: Always a room for you down under.

Cmax, ref your Date: Sat Dec 20 1997 07:30
your logic echoes the definitive american position of ignorant arrogance, thank you for exposing yourself.
the ( heroic french ) officers didnt feel NZ sufficient enough to count in the International Arena.
Ya, right so they blow up the Rainbow Warrior in Peacetime and murder one crew member.
And just yesterday I published the number of NZ soldiers who died in WWI on the fields of France. ( and then we did it again in WWII ) And NZers are complainers because it kinda upsets us that the french governemt actually did this and admitted to it, this is state-sponsored terrorism. And what did the US gomt do? Gives NZ a hard time by raising trade barriers, then turns around and gives China Most Favoured Nation Status. Umm, pardon me, democracy, allies....complainers...

Just to show that I am as even handed as I can be. Let it be known we are talking Governments, not people. Many good Frenchmen are absolutely appalled at what the Parisian Gomt did. An anecdote:- a good friend was in the S of France when the News came out that a French Government spy had been caught in NZ and was suspected of blowing up the Rainbow Warrior, and causing the death of a crew member. My mate walked into a wine bar, a kiwi flag on his back-pack, he did not get to the counter before one Frenchman apologised for the despicable actions of his government, my mate was not allowed to buy any food or drink during his 3-day stay in the village. They remembered, on their war memorial, the kiwis who died liberating the village from the nzis. Those villagers remembered past kindnesses, and they hated their Parisian government. Cmax, you obviously approve of the US foreign policy that discriminates against allies ( alright complaining allies, but allies none the less ) .

Your comment about NZ women was utterly contemptible. After more than 100 years of the vote, our women are probably too independant and feisty to be seen by your eyes. I bin in many many countries, NZ women are the finest anywhere.

Cmax, what does the C stand for? I know that max = big.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:24 - ID#348129)
@CAMDESSUS THE CLOWN --- "IMF warns Asian crisis could deepen further"
Could someone please spin the propeller on this idiots head?
A few days ago he said the crissis was ALMOST OVER ......

Saturday December 20, 12:53 pm Eastern Time

IMF warns Asian crisis could deepen further

By Adam Entous

WASHINGTON, Dec 20 ( Reuters ) - The financial crisis in Asia could deepen and spread in the months ahead, the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) warned on Saturday in a report urging developing countries to brace against the economic fallout.

In its interim World Economic Outlook, the IMF slashed its combined growth forecasts for Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines by a whopping 3.7 percentage points to 1.7 percent for 1998, and said turmoil in Asia would dampen global growth.

It predicted growth in Japan of only 1.1 percent in 1998, and said growth in South Korea was expected to fall to 2.5 percent next year from 6.0 percent this year.

``Undoubtedly, people are going to feel the pain of this adjustment,'' IMF chief economist Michael Mussa said at a news conference to present the report.

In recent months, the IMF has had to put together multibillion loans to rescue South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia after the July 2 crash of the Thai baht currency sent economic shock-waves across Southeast Asia.

The extent of the financial shock to hit Asia took the international lending agency by surprise, the IMF said. Neither economic forecasts nor asset prices in the financial markets foretold the ``depth and breadth'' of the crisis to come, it said.

While acknowledging that some of its previous forecasts for the region were ``too optimistic'', the fund said it repeatedly warned authorities in Asia about the risks. But to no avail.

``When economic conditions remain generally good and when private foreign capital is flowing at a record pace and on very attractive terms, it is easy to believe that the good times will continue,'' the report said.

Although uncertain of how long the crisis will last, the IMF said the economic pain was far from over, and warned that market turmoil could spread.

For those countries already affected, the IMF said economic reforms must not be put off. Hesitation can only worsen the crisis, cause markets to drop further, and exacerbate contagion to other emerging markets and to more developed countries, it said.

The crisis has already led to a dramatic slowdown in private capital flows to emerging economies in all regions, with the sharpest drop in Asia, the IMF said. These flows to developing and newly industrialized economies will drop by $80 billion in 1997 alone, the fund estimated.

Painful adjustments will need to be made in emerging markets around the world, the fund said, as fiscal policies are tightened, domestic investment and consumption are compressed, imports decline, and economic growth slows or, in some cases, turns negative.

The IMF said capital flows to developing countries would remain low in the months ahead as investors become more cautious and as borrowers postpone new issues because of the high cost of accessing the international capital markets.

As the crisis drags on, the IMF said other developing countries are more likely to be drawn in.

``Many countries are vulnerable to reversals of market sentiment,'' the IMF said. ``It is therefore critical that countries take the necessary steps to reduce their vulnerability.''

To protect their economies, the fund said developing countries should contain their external deficits and strengthen their banking systems. In some cases, exchange rate policies may need to be changed.

Though bleak in the near-term, the IMF said investor sentiment toward emerging markets would begin to turn around in the course of 1998, and that countries hard hit by the Asian crisis, after a significant slowdown in growth next year, will see a pickup in 1999.

The crisis may even pass along a few benefits to the former ``Asian tigers''. It may help the region put a lid on large current account deficits as private capital moves elsewhere, the IMF said.

``These economies have the potential to regain the confidence of investors at home and abroad,'' the IMF said. ``As confidence returns, growth can also be expected to recover.''

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:25 - ID#25058)
Billions for the bankers, debt for the people

Could this be true???

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:27 - ID#78116)
Hey John Disney.....
America is still great. The America you are nostolgic for was an America of limited opportunity for some..... mostly white males. Don't get me wrong, Cherokee is right when he denounces affirmative action. I saw it sweep through AT&T in the late 1970s. It was awful. It put women and minorities into positions of authority that they were not qualified for. It also undermined the authority of the women and minorities who were qualified.

And yet, there is no place on earth where people literally die trying to get here. And why? Because anyone can be an American. Being an American is not part of a birth right, it is an ideal, a set of values that anyone can embrace. Anyone anywhere in the world can wake up tomorrow and say they want to be an American and make it happen. You cant wake up tomarrow and say you want to be Japanese, or French or Italian. It is the openess of American society and its ability to adapt that makes it great. I live in Brooklyn, I walk to the store and hear a dozen different languages, and see people from all parts of the world struggling to be an American. No place offers more freedom, greater opportunities to pursue your dream than does America. It is the last great hope for freedom.

Thats not so say that the place doesnt have its faults. Nixon and Reagan certainly did a lot to destroy peoples faith in government. Carter, while a good man was a feeble president, as was Bush. Clinton has done little to help that either. But that may actually be a good thing as it just might force people to look to themselves as opposed to looking to government to getting something done.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:32 - ID#78116)
More Gold.....
What would you like the IMF to do?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:41 - ID#174103)
IMF media Blitz
All this talk of "crisis" plays well with the media. Camdessus et al are just beginning a good pr campaign to sop up some funds so the IMF can continue operations. I wonder what pr firm they hired?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:44 - ID#57232)
America, and other things
werner: It is good to hear something good said about America. I as an American am embarrased by many things my government does -- we may not be as aware of problems outside our borders as we should be -- but I think and hope that visitors to our shores have a good experience. I think the situation is similar with the Russians -- even during the cold war. The Russian people would be friendly with American visitors, despite the wide political gulf. I fondly remember one from Georgia SSR who hosted me ( in this country ) when the cold war was winding down. Scientific circles were always somewhat open. I met Sagdeev, but not A. Sahkarov. I think that was because, although he was the father of modern Russian physics, he was too outspoken, and was never allowed to leave the country. I don't know if you know this, but Russia had 5 times the theoretical physics effort we did, though their experimental work was not as good. I recall some of my superiors quietly reading the Russian Physics literature for ideas. They would not admit this, of course.

I hope that what you are saying is true in most parts of the world -- if it is, perhaps we will see our problems through and meet our ultimate destiny -- which I think is to reach the stars. It is our govenments that have to grow up the most, I think. The "New World Order" is a perfect example of this -- great concept, but key elements missing. Perhaps the problem is that age old one -- that humans are corrupted by the concentration of power. Our greatest leaders were generally uncorruptable - a rare trait indeed.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:45 - ID#78116)
Consumer debt and the Dollar
Carl, the consumer debt problem isnt as serious as it would appear at first blush.

First, there has been a big shift in the medium of exchange from cash and checks to plastic. Affinity programs through everything from the airlines, to University alumni associations to the ACLU have pushed out credit cards with benefits tied to their use. What is being counted as debt is not really debt. The actual increase in what could be viewed as debt, that is the card balance that is not paid off each month is still relatively low compared to past economic expansions.

Secondly, the changes in the bankruptcy laws have made it much easier for a household to declare bankruptcy AND get credit right back. If you declare bankruptcy today, you are prohibited from doing so again for seven years, making you a good risk for more credit. The credit card companies view someone just out of bankruptcy as a good bet. Hence you get record high levels of bankruptcy with little impact on a consumers ability to get credit.

When it comes to the US dollar, I wouldnt bet against it. We have seen substantial central bank, mostly Japanese I would bet, selling of US debt and yet, interest rates have fallen and the dollar has soared. As the strongest and safest place for capital, the US will remain a safe haven through any financial upheaval. This was once the role of gold but the demonetarization of gold has eliminated that function for gold. Despite world wide finanical dislocation over the past couple of months, gold continues to hit new lows.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:45 - ID#227238)
Aurator: Your kind offer has been duly noted and recorded. Bear in mind however that the offer must also include include my roomate, Chernobyl. She is much too homely to kiss goodbye. ( grin thing, grin thing, grin thing - have to be so careful about these gender matters )

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:48 - ID#57232)
Solar cycles
Aurator: Please post your e-mail address for me. Thanks.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:54 - ID#255284)
Who me, paranoid?
JTF na, ask sharefin to pass it on.


The Hatt
(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:55 - ID#294232)
Thoughts from Canada!
Gold has turned the corner and for those paying attention this next few
weeks will be our last chance to get positioned. It seems to me that the
sentiment indicators have reversed direction and those analysts who just
weeks ago were claiming that gold had lost its investment value are now
revisiting the opportunities in stocks like abx and pdg. As a true and
typical goldbug I have had lengthy conversations with my broker as i
averaged into these stocks and up until last week he could only shake his
head every time I placed another order. It seemed every trade was a
losing trade and at one point as I was going to bed one night I said to
my wife, as gold broke through $300.00, "I guess I am the fool". She
replied immediately, if you have indeed given up, NOW MUST BE THE TIME TO
BUY GOLD! Since that night I have moved every extra dollar I own into
gold in one form or another and feel more confident than ever!!!!!!!!
Patience is said to be a virtue and I will now sit back and let the facts
rise to the surface along with gold. Thanks.....

(Sat Dec 20 1997 16:59 - ID#227238)
Karlito99__A ( More Gold..... ) : Perhaps a good first step for the IMF would be to adopt a "twilight clause" in their charter ...... and immediately invoke it.

Scattering layers of unearned money like so much manure on a field has yet to prove a solution to the folly of mankind. Faced with the result of boneheaded choices; the doer is not permanently corrected by the infusion of huge amounts of positive feedback. ie, money from others.

OTOH, given the opportunity to sift through the ashes, while contemplating what HE will do next, provides just the right sort of negative feedback to insure that cause and effect remain indelibly etched on the collective mind. For years to come. The US is do for the same sobering lesson. ..... Who will fund the IMF then?

But it does provide ample opportunity to those with a defective mechanism for earning their own way. ( T1, please insert your Candessus mantra here )

(Sat Dec 20 1997 17:07 - ID#411149)
John Disney- when will the quarterly results be out? Tryin to figure the best time to buy, if the gold price goes up and the quarterlies are bad
or if the gold price stays still or down and the quarterlies are bad.

My gold timing people tell me that all bets should be placed by mid Jan98? Clinton goes in the tank after that along with the stock market and gold should go up?? $540 by August? If that is the case I will be down to see ya and Dr. Searle!

Tally Ho

(Sat Dec 20 1997 17:08 - ID#348129)
KARLITO: The question is not what should they do, it's what could they do - Nothing, considering the problem is far greater than any official body has cared to admit.
CAMDESSUS is flip flopping from day to day - he announced that he had the problem solved 3 days ago with his latest bailout, but now it has magically turned into a crissis again.
Meanwhile the IMF is begging for more funds from the USA etc.
( translation me the taxpayer ) , to throw at this crisis, while the severity of the problem is remains unmeasured.
The Asian problem will first have to be fully disclosed by the Asians
before anyone can be devising a solution.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 17:17 - ID#372344)
@ Old Gold
Great Posts.You sound like my long lost twin. I've been saying exact
same thing over the last month. Keep them coming.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 17:27 - ID#35767)
Your bankruptcy analysis is good and I agree the BR system keeps spending alive. However, much has been switched to Home Equity.
The problem is the game is long in tooth. It is comical to hear comments on punk Xmas shopping "when the economy is so good".NOT and really never has been. When GENERAL wages are falling and big companies are climbing all over themselves to lay people off ..not to survive but to increase the share price.. we have reached the abyss. The national theme has become uni-dimensional ie PROFIT UBER ALLES. The backlash against this after the collapse will be both well deserved and very sharp. Companies did not previously layoff good employees for short term profit. Now there even doing it before Xmas a former previous taboo as some commentators have noted ( hey, but what about the 4th qtr results "profits first loyal employees last" ) The stk mkt has driven everyone beyond reason and has almost created , what will look like I am sure in retrospect, an almost a fuerher like hypnotism and reverence among normal people with regard to stock prices, mutual funds and mutual fund managers. Just as we see pictures of glassy eyed people at hitler rallies on the History Channel, in the future we will see glassy eyed people in Fidelity offices and...everyone looking will shake their head in amazement.
The more human nature supposedly changes the more it stays de same.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 17:40 - ID#35767)
Karlito/ another good point/ CANT BLAME 'EM
Good observation with which I agree about US replacing Gold. But what happens when any instability occurs here/ and it will. Your astute observation is probably why they keep REPEATING how strong the US economy is and all the nos re politically sensitive employment always come out great. YET reality is that Xmas sales are punk and bankruptcies are going parabolic as are debt delinquincies and thus thay really belie the govt numbers. But hey those nos are not govt controlled so what would one expect. THEY ARE REAL!!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 17:40 - ID#23195)
American politics
To JFT:American people dont get the exact picture from the american media
For example about the Irac-Us war:Did you know that the american ambassedor gave permission at Iraq to invade Kowait.Did you know most Kowaities were in France ( Cote-d'azur ) While their servants ( slaves ) without a pasport had to stay.Did you know that Sadam had placed underground most of his political opponents ( Kurdes etc ) +/- 100000 and that american tanks burried them alive.All this to stop the war at the borders of Bagdad and without fighting the real Iraqi army.Not talking about the bombing of innocent in Bagdad, the "germ" bombs of Sadam,and the economical boycot hurting mostly poor people Sadam is a vicious dictator but was all this necessary.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 17:48 - ID#333131)
Karlito 99
Could you guide me to the source that keeps track of credit card debt which is rolled over each month which you mentioned is in line with previous expansions?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 17:57 - ID#57232)
Thanks -- should have known sharefin already has it!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 18:05 - ID#57232)
American Media
werner: You are absolutely correct about our newsmedia -- years ago it was diverse, and it was hard for any group to control what was released, and what was not. Now -- there are only a few major news agencies, and unless one scours the world as we do on the net, we do not get the unaltered truth. I think even the news about gold and SE Asia has been actively filtered.

werner: Do you know what newsmedia outside the US is the most unbiased? I really don't know. Financial Times? Christian Science Monitor? ......?

It is tiresome to always scour the net --

(Sat Dec 20 1997 18:17 - ID#426220)
Government Bonds, Money and South-East Asia: The Great Deception

If we accept that government bonds and currencies are at best an illusion of wealth, and that stock markets trading at 5 times book value may be over-priced in view of falling profits and currency upheaval, then the only investment alternative is gold. Realizing this, governments have driven down the price of gold. In order for the world to continue to believe in the government promoted illusion, the price of gold must continue to fall. If the world were not on the edge of an economic collapse, the price of gold would not be so low. An analysis by John Kutyn:

(Sat Dec 20 1997 18:31 - ID#225157)
The Joke of Kitco
George S Cole the Great Teacher???? Yea right! The great teacher of how to lose your money while waiting for the enormous Gold Bull!! At least if he had any class he would show his face here and admit he was wrong for the passed year or so. Good thing I took Hepcats advice and sold my gold shares before the real damage was done. Oh but Good old George, well he was holding little gold stocks while he was proclaiming the beginning of the Great Gold BULL. Which turned to be BULL. I bet he was really probably fully invested in Gold Stocks and is now too ashamed and battered to show his face here. People call him the great teacher or and economist, I call him the joke of Kitco.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 18:38 - ID#23195)
to JFT:In Brussels we receive most european and a few american ( cnn-nbc ) televisionstations.Most national european and american magazines and newspapers are available on a daily bases.By comparing them esspecially
in "times of economical or political frictions between allies" you get a better idea of the real picture.One thing is for sure most governements
are lying about their political actions and the economical situation of
their country.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 18:42 - ID#339320)

Like I said, I knew there would be hell to pay, but expected
it least of all from you. You may consider me of ignorant arrogance, but thats O.K., I still love you anyway.
You put words in my mouth, I never said heroic French ...... much to the contrary, I implied that I didnt want it understood that I was condoning French politics. No Aurator, I do not aproove of U.S. foreign policy as you say, and you should learn not to read more into something that was told. This is the same as a lie.
As to NZ women, you have obviously not "bin ( sic ) very far". But you are right, my comment on that ( only ) was out of line, but the fact left such an indelible impression in my memory, as to give a living meaning to the word gene pool. As strickly an objective observation, this
happens when a small group of isolated peoples do not breed outside of their race. Even after your anti-american banterings, my NZ comment was intended as humorous rebuttle...... I enjoyed the Kiwis when I was there.

The Hatt
(Sat Dec 20 1997 18:49 - ID#294232)
Comments by Peter!!!!
If you rely on others for investment advice and direction you are in very
deep trouble my friend! Why pick out one mans opinion and then blame him
for having an opinion of future market directions. Can you imagine how
the analysts are going to be fried when gold breaks out and proves once
again that it is the only true measure of wealth. Time has a means of
proving everyones opinion right and if your timing is wrong today it may
indeed be right tommorow! Those who feel justified in throwing stones
today may end up being the fools tommorow and it takes nothing more than
MATURITY to recognise this!!! DONOT THRW STONES!!!!!!!!

John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 18:57 - ID#24140)
These foolish things remind me of you

For Cmax - Your comment on Kiwi girls was surprisingly tasteless.

I dont dislike you because you are American. I believe you are

quite capable of being disliked in your own right.

For Ray - quarterlies start coming out around january 10th through

January 25th or so. They are published in Business Day. I'll summarize

as they come.

For Werner - thanks for your comment.Aren't you new here?? You may

find this hangout addictive.

For Karlito - You still never told me why you are here. You hate

gold and think we're a bunch of jerkoffs. Why do we fascinate you so??

I think Carter was so stupid he was WORSE than evil. Reagan at least

fooled the russians with star wars and Nixon gave us CHINA !!

And what are those speeches of yours all about?? the benefit of big

Government and how people dont need freedom anyway ??

For Cherokee - Didnt mean to stir you up. I hate it when the Indians

get restless. Where my flak jacket??

(Sat Dec 20 1997 18:59 - ID#23195)
to who it may concern
I live in Brussels the capital of Belgium ( my nationality ) and English is
considered as the third language

John Disney__A
(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:02 - ID#24140)
My God another one -

My My Peter - well aren't you a smart little fellow. oboyoboy

Im sure your mama is proud of you -

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:03 - ID#225157)
The Hatt
George is that you? If you are not and have been around for the past year or so you would have seen Coles constant daily proclamations. He even started posting derogatory poetry about Andy Smith. Only to say near his end that he was hold little gold investments and was hoping for gold to get whacked some more. Economist, no, Great teacher, not, Joke of Kitco, you bet.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:08 - ID#23195)
John Disney
I discovered this site yesterday at +/- 4am in the morning.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:11 - ID#35767)
George S. Cole
Remember GSC has always called for the GOLD BULL when the dollar significantly weakened and in fact the opposite has happened. Really one could make the argument that GSC has been right on the mark. By the way he is still infrequently offering his observations through another handle ( disclosed to me by GSC himself ) which I will not disclose ( although I have disclosed to one other who I know will maintain confidentiality ) as apparently GSC has not meant to reveal himself , AS YET.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:12 - ID#225157)
John Disney
Considering that I took Hepcat's advise before the Great melt down, Yea I feel pretty good about myself. I still have ALL my money, do you? : ) Hey Hep are you still around? If so, where is gold going in 1998? Your comments are most appreciated.

The Hatt
(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:21 - ID#294232)
Peter! Peter! Peter!
Have you no pride in yourself and your ability to think? Why not save the
begging for si, I am sure you will find many experts claiming to have the
inside on the junior market and you can wimper your way into the den of
some promoter!!! WISH YOU "LUCK"

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:21 - ID#225157)
Oh so GSC is using another handle. How brave of him. Just as Hepcat predicted. Hep you were almost prefect with your calls this year, the only bad call you made was the Eskimos winning the Grey Cup. Well, I guess it goes to show that you are human after all.

The Hatt
(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:21 - ID#294232)
Peter! Peter! Peter!
Have you no pride in yourself and your ability to think? Why not save the
begging for si, I am sure you will find many experts claiming to have the
inside on the junior market and you can wimper your way into the den of
some promoter!!! WISH YOU "LUCK"

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:23 - ID#225157)
No begging Hatt or who ever you really are.*grin* Just respect!!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:23 - ID#41229)
Peter@Hep's advice
Since you follow hep's advice you must still be bullish on markets and in for the ride.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:29 - ID#41229)
Day of bashing!
Well we gone from race to nationalities to individuals, all less than a day!

Lurker 777
(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:30 - ID#317247)
Peter or anyone prone to belching vile personal attacks
I lurk in the shadows of Kitco hoping for small nuggets of well reasoned thought so I may better fight the curse of poverty. Most people on this site do their own DD before making a commitment of $$$. I would enjoy hearing your rebuttal to any well thought out position viewed here. Personal attacks on participants on this site without reason are without merit. What are your logical and insightful views on the direction of gold for 98. Please shut up or put up.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:30 - ID#225157)
Actualy I have been out of the Markets for year end Tax selling. Not really sure where I am going to put my money. Oh GSC if you are out there how about those Japanese Markets your were so Bullish on also.

The Hatt
(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:33 - ID#294232)
Should of Known!!!!!!!
Peter we need people like you who prefer the safety of the ranks of the
followers! When distribution takes place as it is now doing on the Dow,
they need investors who will stand up to the plate and take their daily
dose of worthless paper. HOPE IT TASTES GOOD!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:35 - ID#225157)
vile personal attacks?? Please define

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:35 - ID#31868)
I live for your death.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:36 - ID#225157)
Read my 19:30 post. I hold no paper.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:42 - ID#41229)
I would suggest to you that karlito is waning in his beliefs. His posts, as of late, dot not display the arrogance that his earlier posts did. Also his arguements are begining to diminish. Maybe he has begun to see the light!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 19:45 - ID#225157)
And did GSC over the past year give you well reasoned thoughts or was it is love for Gold that blinded him to the events that occurred.

silver plate
(Sat Dec 20 1997 20:03 - ID#288433)
karlito living in brooklyn is subject to strong off-shore winds that makes him lean far left.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 20:06 - ID#227238)
Aurator: Not what we have been but what we have become!
Pete: Whatever may have been said on this site, over the year that I have been here, I know, for a fact that no one attacked you personally. ..... In the fashion you have just displayed.

At this point, I am certain that there are many here who would share my feelings and who would devoutly suggest that you put both your money and your, displayed, sense of good manners safely away where no sunbeam will ever shine upon them.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 20:13 - ID#31868)
I want you and the world to know this. I want Karlito's throat in my grasp and I do not smile during his death, I would have the same look upon my face if I had killed cancer.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 20:17 - ID#23195)
To John:I was giving geographical and cultural lessons destinated to
CMAX Your mother was not proud of you??? I am so sorry!!!as I am sorry for replying late!!and everything else

(Sat Dec 20 1997 20:23 - ID#30116)
At the summit
It seems that the current conditions on Mount Washington are more friendly than Kitco, 15 degrees F with 65 miles per hour wind with gusts to 75.

Chill out guys and gals, the coming 'weather' forecast for the financials may vindicate gold bugs yet.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 20:31 - ID#372344)
@ Looking at the WEEK Ahead {{{has the firing stoped?is it safe to talk?}}}
An important announcement of friday IMHO is that China lowered
its interest rates from 9% to 1%?. Could this be a move to weaken their currency or even devalue it again? You recall I believed that
China was responsible in large part for the current Asia crisis, when
some months ago they devalued their currency This to me is easier explained if we follow the "War on Inflation" i.e. the "Search for
Cheap Labor ( Slaves ) ". In my view the US and Multinationals were
faced with increased labor costs first in Japan, then moved to Korea,
Taiwan,Thailand et.... which brings us to the cheapest ( prison workers? )
labor in China. I don't believe that China is going to allow any of said
others to outprice her for laborers ( slaves ) .She has indeed gained much
in the last few years and is poised ( already to a good extent ) to ascent to true superpower, military and economic and she is not going to give that up, at least without a serious fight. I think we will continue to see equity,
and currency turmoil albeit PPTed all the way. This I feel will be positive
for GOLD, one can almost hear the roar of those printing presses, as the
US$ is ever so ( PPTed ) gradually lowered to take some pressure off
Asia. I also look for AG to yes lower rates soon to try to take pressure off Asia ( thus weaken US$ and up Gold. ) The sentiment for Gold coins is certainly changed, a little unknown coin/collectables shop I frequent
did not have " quantity"but I did but some beauties .An interesting barometer I've used for years is when Louis Ruck announces he won't
be on next week on Wallpaper week, such as he did this week,the US market has nearly always gone down, the following week,only to have him return the next week, and claim his absence as the sole cause of the market decline. ( Strange but true )

(Sat Dec 20 1997 20:34 - ID#30116)
I sort of 'fell asleep at the keyboard' last night. I've become somewhat more curious about this volatility measurement thing. We've had three back to back years of gains in the stock market. I read somewhere last week, that this is the first time that this has happened in the last 101 years.

Isn't it strange how so many would like to believe that this is the norm and not the exception? Were that the markets as predictable as, "It's a Wonderful Life", being on the tube as I write this.........

Happy Holidays all... ( If I said, "Merry Christmas", then would I be accused of discrimination? My real problem is that I can't spell all of the other holiday names. So I will chicken out and be ...... PC )

(Sat Dec 20 1997 20:46 - ID#225157)
Why does George S Cole want confidentiality in his postings. Why is he now posting under different handles.. hmmmmmmmm makes you wonder?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 20:49 - ID#158191)
Louis Ruckeiser
There's a very simple reason why the market usually falls during Ruckeiser's absence.

He once mentioned that he only takes off when he thinks the market will be "quiet."

Unfortunately he's usually wrong. And he always sounds like he knew all along what would happen in the week just ended.

Have you noticed that his monologues are getting longer and longer?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:03 - ID#364147)
@ hiding in Bunker
Gettin pretty 'heavy' Panda~~~~~~~

(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:05 - ID#364147)
@ Peter
Maybe he had a sex change ( grin thing ) ~~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:08 - ID#227238)
Petey Pee Stain: Why??? Have you engaged your mirror recently?? .... This evening has seen a concerted email campaign on your behalf. A call for volunteers was made. A search to find one responsible individual to pull little Petey's dream wagon.

Although heroic efforts were expended on behalf of this noble cause; none were forthcoming. Isn't that just like Americans at Christmas time? Here is a fine example of American manhood, merely seeking someone to follow ..... and no one will lead.

Incidently, the most commonly reported reason for declining the invitation to volunteer was: Most respondents didn't like whiners. Sorry. We tried our damndest. Guess you'll just have to do it like everyone else. On your own. ........ My God! What is this country coming to????

(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:15 - ID#26669)
Zimbabwe. I wonder if this is SA's future?

When you guys were discussing the tenuous state of affairs in SA this week I recalled that I'd heard this bit about Zimbabwe. But it is really interesting not a peep about it is mentioned in US newspapers.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:20 - ID#225157)
Grin...... or maybe he is Earl

(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:29 - ID#225157)
Why are you so upset Earl. Do you by chance know George S Cole's new handles. I would really like to know what he is Bullish on for I need to protect my future investments.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:29 - ID#41229)
Global Market
I for one would like someone to put forth an arguement on how the U.S. can compete globally.

Companies can and have by relocating manufacturing bases abroad to take advantage of low labor costs and lighter enviromently policies.

This only allows share holders a small portion of the profits. But the country as a hole gains very little.

We currently have 40% of work force working for one form of gov. or another. Where I live 52% of the population are on some sort of social program or another. The ratio of working people to retired is decreasing. The tax system punishes people who try to better themselves ( capital gains, property and asset-inventory taxes. )

In order for the U.S. to compete, either the competetors have to bring their overhead, ( Way of living, social programs, and wages up to our standards ) Or through production levels ( more productive work force ) or to cut cost of production ( tax cuts and wage cuts ) .

With the politicians ( mostly democrats ) and their class warfare propagandy you will not see any tax cuts and very little social program cuts.

As for as the productive work force, I see that becoming less and less in the U.S. We as a nation are becoming weak, our government is one that heeds the view of special interest groups, wether its for large corp. or minority groups.

We as a nation are borrowing from tommorow to continue are way of life today.

I'm not trying to paint this bleak dooms day picture but I can't see how it'll continue.

I challenge Karlito or any of his/her beliefs on how they expect it to continue, not touchy feely answers but dollars and cents answers.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:30 - ID#364147)
Peter...................................With the "Boss" blarin in the headphones
Ya think he could be ( heavy accent + grin ) ...thing......

(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:32 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton........................................and true confessions
Peter: I am George S. Cole~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:36 - ID#339320)
To J Disney

John Disney:
Dont pretend to lecture me about surprisingly tasteless comments..... you are far from being a bastion of courtesy here. ( I refer you to your own tasteless comments over the last 24 hours ) . Im glad that you think Im an American ( even though you nailed the wrong continent ) , because I bore of your constant U.S. bashing ( as if SA was more civilized ) and your aquired South African outlook on races. You have left yourself wide open for justfiable reproach, but I will not take advantage of that.
Your recent posts do that all by themselves.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:36 - ID#225157)
Ted or GSC
Ok! What are you Bullish on?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:48 - ID#364147) BULLISH on-----------------------
Swan's Island ( M.E. ) oceanfront land

(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:52 - ID#225157)
What a question? *laugh* What is George S Cole Bullish on. *laugh*. I remember when he was Bullish on Gold at 380.00 all the way down to 320.00 until Hepper knocked him into hiding.

Bill Buckler
(Sat Dec 20 1997 21:55 - ID#257234)
Bankruptcy - THE SOLUTION!
Karlito ( 16:45 ) Well, now I've read everything. I am so happy to know that consumer debt in the US is not a problem that I am inspired to quote you:

"Secondly, the changes in the bankruptcy laws have made it much easier for a household to declare bankruptcy AND get credit right back. If you declare bankruptcy today, you are prohibited from doing so again for seven years, making you a good risk for more credit. The credit card companies view someone just out of bankruptcy as a good bet. Hence you get record high levels of bankruptcy with little impact on a consumers ability to get credit."

Karlito, apply for the post of head of the IMF immediately! You have the answer. Simply instruct all the Asian Central Banks to declare bankruptcy. Presto, the "can't go bankrupt" for seven years and are therefore a "good credit risk". Problem solved! Mr Camdessus will be in awe of you.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:01 - ID#364147)
@ Random Thouhgts
8 miles from mainland USA is as close ta Bill Clinton as I wanta get~~~~~

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:10 - ID#270236)
Isn't that what I said? There was a substantial expansion of credit in
the 20's that caused an inflation in financial asset prices but prices
otherwise were stable. Real growth was relatively sluggish. I would
correct one thing you said. Inflation is always defined as an expansion
of money and credit. Price increases are a symptom and may not happen
depending on what happens to the velocity of circulation. That's elementary quantity theory.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:14 - ID#35767)
What about Sanibel Island FLA. Trooper!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:18 - ID#364147)
@ ROR..........................ya gotta be kiddin
Too far south for this dude---did my military ( ??? ) time in Bradenton Beach area....C.O. work~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:23 - ID#35767)
Peter et al
George S. Cole stated that as long as the dollar remained strong gold would go down and the mkts would remain stable. He further stated that this could continue. Thus if you had followed GSC's advice you would have been out of gold long ago. Give him credit for his objective statements and do not crucify him for ( like many of us ) expessing his hope in addition to his intelligent observations! HE WILL RETURN!WHEN IS THE ONLY QUESTION AND FOR NONE OF US TO REALLY KNOW.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:25 - ID#364147)
The suspense is killin me~~~~~~~~

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:26 - ID#270236)
Charles Keeling
Thanks for the compliment. I didn't live through the 20's so I can't
speak with first hand knowlege so I'm only going on what I've read.
Everything I've read indicates that the general price level was stable
in the 20's. There was certainly the farm bust and real estate bust
in Florida to restrain prices and you had developing country debt problems with Latin America. I think you are right. The rapid money
growth will not lead to rising prices as we'll just import more cheap
stuff from the floundering economies. Eventually our current account
deficit will rise to the point where growth here will slow precipitously
and the speculators will attack the dollar. When it collapses credit
will contract here just as it is doing in Asia. Then the game's up.
Massive defaults will ensue. Should be good for gold, though.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:28 - ID#364147)
But who's counting
70 days ta go~~~~~~~~AWAY!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:28 - ID#335190)
Saturday, December 20, 1997
Mutual Funds
Monthly Report
Asian fallout hammers Canadian resource funds

By SUSAN HEINRICH ........... Mutual Funds Reporter The Financial Post
As Asia struggles with its economic woes, many markets around the world continued to suffer volatility in November.Canada was unable to escape the turmoil while the U.S. and Europe provided relative safe havens.

Canadian gold and precious metals funds continued to falter as the category's average return plummeted another 18.6% in November. That brought its average one-year return to -40.7%. Dynamic Precious Metals plunged 48% while Royal Precious Metals lost 38.8%.

"We're seeing the whole resource side almost in an a recession, at least the stocks," said Canadian equity and precious metals portfolio manager Frank Mersch of Altamira Investment Services Inc. "[But] I don't think the commodities are themselves."

The question now, he said, is: "Has the market discounted everything out there? I think so. We're seeing stocks trading at 70% of their value [compared with their highs]."

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:35 - ID#35767)
Does anyone have any of his old letters. As I recall he called for an Stk Mkt top in August and a gold bottom in the same month. Good call on the first and he was right on the latter but it was only a short term bottom. Why the animosity towards GSC. Peter? Ted?

TED Why are you glad to leave Cape Breton..and be specific..Thank you sir!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:36 - ID#31868)
I will get Camdesuss.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:37 - ID#30116)
Demi Gods?
Why is it that so many seem to be so preoccupied with 'gurus'? My only preoccupation ( foolish though it may be ) is gold. Perhaps I should buy Intel? ( Pregnant pause........ ) Nah. Gold has been too reliable. On the downside that is. :- ) )

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:37 - ID#335190)
Saturday, December 20, 1997
Inside the Market
Fear an ever increasing factor

By PATRICK BLOOMFIELD....Patrick Bloomfield, a Financial Post regular contributor, invests in securities and may hold issues mentioned in
this column.

Sometimes one is lucky enough to get some things right. For instance, I have been suggesting for some months that bonds could give investors a better short-term bang for their buck than stocks.

Why are our Canadian markets being hit harder? One has only to note the symptoms of Asian disinflationary flu in gold and precious metals prices to answer that one. In addition, our valiant central bank's defense of the C$ is beginning to lift three-month treasury bill rates to a level where they can be an acceptable alternative to income-generating stocks.

But bargains are also showing up here, too. The trick in the months ahead will be to find and buy them.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:38 - ID#227238)
@ the Saturday nite rumble. Ain't had one in a while.
Cap'n Bill Buckler: Ain't American law a wonderful thing to behold? Bear in mind; what was stated is that the action called bankruptcy conferred on the bankruptee the mantle of "good credit risk". Only Americans have the capacity for twisting words until they lose all common understanding. It's probably one reason why we extol the vitues of "communication" and convey absolutely nothing of consequence.

But, I digress.

Confronted with the opportunity to extend credit to a newly minted and well polished bankruptee ( surely they have a euphemism for these deadbeats ) we would run for the hills. But American law and our really unique code of good/sound business practices raises the limits for the next go around. ...... Having failed once at the business of personal finance and been rewarded for the failure; it's safe to assume that the second attempt has a high probability for a similar outcome. Why not? It's a profitable enterprise. And it's all completely legal.

Where does the fault lie? Certainly not with the deadbeat. He has been trained to act this way. ....... In the meantime, the little old lady and all those who regularly practice an outdated code of personal responsibility, experience higher costs for their goods and services in order that deadbeats may continue anon without fear of being financially discommoded. ...... But it's for the greater good of the credit system. Eh?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:39 - ID#35767)
A friend of mine went out with Camdueses neice and he said that Mr. C ( as they call him ) is a nice guy and has a great sense of humor and was nice to common folk like him. TRUE STORY only in Washington.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:41 - ID#344308)


surely you will not jump into the spiders web
trying to get the spider will you?

focus and control are the keys to everything. control
your focus, and control your future. the 'others' have
a date with flux, as he is amux us and looking for some

let their winnowy whispers of nothing-ness continue into
nothing-ness.......stinkfoot ( frank zappa ) had nothing on
the breath of these rotted ones.

flooding like hell here in houston, texas...

ssm going to h2o mode, will send ss via el nino producing sub-terranean

cherokee!;---11 days and counting-------what'cha gonna do--------

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:43 - ID#364147)
Do you like Camdesuss??????

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:45 - ID#35767)
Dont get Camdeseus.. Get Even!! And if silver keeps going up maybe I'll git ther myselv!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:45 - ID#225283)
WSW in Review

I wanted to say this on Friday night after my local PBS channel first aired WSW but I figured I would wait until later in the weekend.

I missed most of the show , and although that is not usually a great loss I did find that the gueast selection was extremely topical....

Auction Houses...but not the high end boys ...he should have been interviewing the nuts and bolts auction houses that will be putting half of the Asian corporations assets on the block in the coming year...and talking about the bargain hunting that will be going on when the estate sale auctions take place of the Korean businessmen that commited suicide and now all of those over priced paintings and auction house "art du joir" they bought will soon be reauctioned at pennies on the dollar.That would have been the true topical topic.

My question is did he say anything about gold ...or anything else worth listening to...I hope I did not shoot off my mouth to soon...I have yet to review the previous posts...please pardon me if I'm behing the curve with this one.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:48 - ID#393224)
G'day ROR. GSC is already back and has been posting quite a bit in the last 24 hours. Re-read and you shall see him. Also respect his privacy. Cheers from downunder.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:49 - ID#35767)
Camdesuss may not be the most popular person but what would any of us do in his position. Would we say dont loan us money and let us go under.. I think not. Mr. C is a victim of his circumstances and I think he means well even though the end may be less than prodigious.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:49 - ID#227238)
ROR: But apparently Mr C is not so nice that he would voluntarily give up his cushy sinecure and avoid being a public nuisance. .... Those personal character traits would adequately descibe my dog as well. But my dog is not paid big bucks at public expense for the privilege of buggering said public for even more money in process of acting magesterial. ...... uh, managerial.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:49 - ID#401460)

I challenge Karlito or any of his/her beliefs on how they expect it to continue, not touchy freely answers but dollars and cents answers.

They will just tell you that we need more social programs, more money for the unemployed, more minority set aside, etc. You know the same old SH+T. They have no idea where the money comes from, in their world 2+ 2 = 12 and that is exactly why we find ourselves in this mess. In their mind, the government has an obligation to take care of all of us. Ask them WHO the government is that will take or can take care of all of the people in an unproductive society. Over 50% of the public is working directly or indirectly for the US Government - producing nothing but paper and hot air.

They believe Clinton, when he tells them there is no unemployment and that he has created 800 Billion jobs this month with out creating any inflation; and then turn around and Bitch on this line, that Kodak and the rest of that dirty capitalistic world is laying everyone off before Christmas and that is why groceries are so expensive.

You are wasting your time trying to communicate with them. They have been miss-programed since birth. They hate the Republican Rockefellers and love the Democratic Rockefellers never knowing that their money is all the same. They just dont get it and never will. It is not about Liberalism and Conservatism, it is about THEM getting what they want, and they love to use the far right and far left to achieve their goals.

Ask them who had a party the night before the 29 crash for 200 of the richest people in the country? Who sold Oil to Hitler? Who was the fence for Nazi Gold? They refuse to accept the truth in History. They only want to believe the ideological BS that they have been programed to believe.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:50 - ID#30116)
Consuming some of that Canadian elixir distilled from grains, no, not the sudsy stuff. That's for sissies.

O.K. On to important stuff.... Now, how do people feel about Stillwaters hedging? When platinum went to $450+, the managment looked pretty stupid and inept. Now, with $350 platinum, they don't look so dumb. The problem is this; The 'Street' seems to undervalue the stock regardless of the price of the metal or the hedging program in place.

What to do? Is it a buy here? $14 and change was a good price, and appears to be a long term floor for the stock. What are the negatives for the metals platinum and palladium? Japanese jewelry and catalytic converters? Jewelry I don't really figure in to the equation. So, we are left with South Africa and Russia as the wild cards. Not so much South Africa as Russia. Anyone care to step up to the roulette table? Do I hear ten chips on 21?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:51 - ID#364147)
ROR----(non gold(scroll on by if offended))
I want to leave Cape Breton cause:#1 the society is a little tooo 'pink' for me....#2 Want to a build another house...#3 The property there is a much better 'investment'---a 'steal' and has a better view!!....# 4 NO NEIGHBORS @ S.I. property!!...#5 The 'vibes' of livin on an island...#6 Will be closer ta 'Bubba'....could go on and on and onnnnnnnnnnn....

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:53 - ID#364147)
Panda..........the drink of cape Breton is----------------------
RUM ( grin thing )

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:53 - ID#225157)
Give me a break ROR. George S Cole was constanly using every thing under the sun to proclaim an enormous Gold Bull. His most common theme was Gold's relationship with the performance of the DOW. Remember when "the DOW has topped at 8300 now the Gold Bull has begun", or the "when the DOW drops to 7500 the paper bear has arrived and the Gold Bull has begun". What about his poems bashing Andy Smith. Buying on the dips. The bottom is diffently here ( every day form 380 to 310 ) . And now GSC is in hiding waiting to make his GRAND return. Like I said the Joke of Kitco

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:54 - ID#35767)
@Mr. C
Mr. C is there to push the agenda the politicians are paid to push but cant always do openly. In a way we should pity Mr. C as he is a fall guy. My friend met him through his neice and said the guy is the absolute salt of the earth as it were. He wanted the IMF to help those on trouble in order to maintain social and military peace and thus provide a healthy environment for the worlds children to flourish and grow. He had a healthy disdain for corruption and corrupt politicians.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:54 - ID#227238)
Bill Buckler: Forgive me. I overlooked your finer point which is truly priceless. That is let the nations of Asia declare bankruptcy ,,,,, and then PRIVATE BANKS can loan them more money because they will now be sterling credit risks. A truly noncontradictory solution to the problem. Now we await Karlito's response.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:55 - ID#364147)
@ ROR...........................................and C
Yeah,he's a swell guy....'neat'...

(Sat Dec 20 1997 22:59 - ID#398105)
G'Day from kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

In 1932, Stephen Leacock spoke about world finance and gold....
"We have to have - I would not say "stable prices"; you cannot have a world with all the prices stable; you can only have a world in which the price level moves slowly with a regular and intermittent oscillation. But you can have and must have a fixed echange. You cannot have a foreign trade based upon monetary speculation; you have got to have something absolutely stable for you dealings with foreign nations, and I tell you, gentlemen, I am convinced that there is nothing that will take the place of some absolutely metallic standard, some standard of things, and not of opnions"

What is the result when each nation fixes its own price of gold, and there is no consensus on a monetary standard to regulate the flow of international trade? Today the world financial situation is in bad condition, very bad. A number of nations, including the USA, are living beyond their means, and there is NO CONTROL on paper money. There is NO STANDARD by which to keep ALL politicians honest. GOLD as a standard will ultimately enforce discipline. If not, and if we follow the $US we may have an international monetary holocaust. At the end of the day, a balance is required between GOLD and paper currencies.

Karlito, are you a politician?! There is an Economic War going on mate, or have you not noticed?!

Aye Haggis

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:01 - ID#35767)
Why is it you think Camduses cant be one of the "guys". Isnt that being a little unfair just as Peter is to GSC.

New Kid on the Block
(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:03 - ID#389148)
Need To Be Educated

Would one of you kind and informed people tell me why some who post on these pages ALWAYS begin the post with:

"As I predicted, ( fill in the date/time ) "

I am just trying to learn the ropes and wondered if such an introductory phrase was a requirement or not for supreme intelligence.

Thank-you in advance for your time.

Sorry. I almost forgot.

"I predict that the sun will rise tomorrow morning."

When I verify the accuracy of my prediction tomorrow, I too will feel the joy of victory when I post......

"As I predicted.... blah blah balh"


(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:04 - ID#30116)
Kioto fiasco and platinum.....
Now let me say at the outset that I don't believe in this global warming BS. I personally would like the weather to be a little warmer. Now, with all of these 'dooooo gooders' convening and telling us how we should act to save the planet from ourselves, what impact on emission controls do you think that this confab will have and, thus, the PGMs? If they go along with this garbage science, then this is bullish for the PGMs but a big negative for the economies of developed countries.

BTW, how did all of these 'concerned' folk get to this glorious meeting in the first place? In nice, big, jets and limos? Hmmmmm, what did those machines burn for fuel? Hmmmmmm. I guess some people are more 'equal' than others are. Thus it ever was...

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:04 - ID#227238)
Panda: I wish I knew. If deflation is in the cards that means fewer cars and less jewelry. The only saving grace may be that the shortfall ( if it exists ) will cushion the downside for PGMs. In any case, SWC did not materially benefit from the PGM runup earlier and only seems to be getting whacked on the metals retracement. .... Seems like lose/lose. Some position to be in.

NOw if only GSC hadn't talked me into the position .... ( grin thing ) . The devil made me do it.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:06 - ID#31868)
Camdesuss is garbage

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:08 - ID#30116)
New Kid on the Block
New Kid on the Block, I don't know anything and have proved this fact to myself many times in the last few years. :- ) )

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:13 - ID#364147)
@ garbage smells............

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:14 - ID#30116)
By all accounts ( insert disclaimer here ) Stillwater should be doing O.K. here. Clearly, I am in the Alice in Wonderland place here. I should of bought Intel ( grin and wink thing here ) .

Yeah, verily, the best move would have been to buy puts on the SOX index! Asian crisis and semiconductor chips were hand maidens made in gold bug heaven, but alas, I failed to see and act! Bartender! Another glass of your fine elixir of pain reducer! :- ) ) Aren't the holidays wonderful.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:16 - ID#227238)
Haggis and High Rise: Amen. Haggis: When all the crap is distilled out of the mix, what is left is what you posted. ..... The world is in need of a system of exchange based on something other than political good intentions.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:18 - ID#225283)

Looks like it has been going on pretty fast and furious tonight...

Just my luck...I spend a few hours reviewing a family members 401k plan & it all hits the fan here at Kitco.

I hate to change the subject butcheck this out for optionson a 401k plan : 155 different mutual funds to choice from in various areas.

Money Market Funds
Income Funds
Balanced Funds
Growth & income Funds
Growth Funds
Iternational Funds
Asset Allocation Funds

But not a single Good Ol Likable Darn GOLD FUND in the hole bunch.

The mutual fund industry most have gone all out to persuade these major employers to offer such a vast selection of CRAP. I guess the need to make up the net outflows from somewhere...Looks like they are counting on the wage slaves to pick a fund ( or up to 20 different ones under this plan ) and forget about the cash that leaves their paycheck evry payday.

Nearly evry single Fidelity fund ...except ofcourse the gold funds.

Maybe I will suggests some of the REIT funds.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:19 - ID#364147)
@ ROR.............from socialist republic of Cape Breton
Unfair...mois????? naaaaah....

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:19 - ID#372344)
@ New Kid On The Block
In case you hadn't noticed this is a discussion
forum related to Gold and PM'S and their prices.
Predicting "the sun is going to come out tomorrow" I don't believe
will effect the price of Gold because Gold has already discount it.
Now perhaps you predict for all of us to read what in particular is
going to make GOLD move up or down and when, and IF you are
correct if you wish claim credit and thereby possibly help us all
make alot of $. But if you're wrong, well just read below about GSC.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:20 - ID#225157)
Unfair to George S Cole. *Laugh* Where is George S Cole? Hepcat decided enough was enough with George S Cole and his constant proclamations and irrational exuberance. Cole claimed that if Hepcat was right with his 310 call then it would be the call of the Year. Well we all know who was right but the question still remains. Where is George S Cole and why is he now using a secret handle?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:22 - ID#364147)
I don't think the holidays are............
Wonderful,Panda~~~~~~~~ bah humbug!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:24 - ID#227238)
Panda: I generally prefer those beverages which tax the collecting system, to the exclusion of more ardent spirits ..... but yer talkin' me into a little something 'n water. You and SWC that is.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:25 - ID#30116)
At the risk of being a bore, I'll ask this question again. Did anyone read Wayne Angel's article in the Wall Street Journal's Op Ed page? He actually sounded concerned about the fall in the price of gold. His bottom price seemed to be around $240/oz. I admit that I have a hard time seeing that happening. Then again, I suppose that anything is possible in an opaque market. Should I be so foolish and entertain the thought of a bottom here? BARTENDER!..

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:26 - ID#364147)
No drinkin~~~~~

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:26 - ID#344308)

greetings from s texas amongst the piney-woods of the
coastal plains.

stephen leacock quote-----excellent, and repeated here many
times in other forms.

the very thing that the international bankers demanded and got, de-coupling, will be the very thing that destroys them.
how ironic and appropriate.....may the circle......


(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:26 - ID#225283)

Congratulations on the sale of the House and land. I assume the deal with the man from N.O. is a yes.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:29 - ID#364147)
@ CherOkee and 'black flies'
CherOkee: Lotta 'black flies' ta swat in Maine ( no grin thing ) ....

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:30 - ID#393224)
Merry Xmas
Ted-- I'm going to send you a santa suit and an autographed picture of Bill Clinton for Chrissy. Bah humbug from your 'mates' downunder ( sweltering away in 95 degrees of 'Xmas' weather ) . Now about time to crack my first beer as, judging by the recent posts, I've got a lot of catching up to do.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:31 - ID#225283)

I thought the Alice in Wonderland gig was my bit.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:31 - ID#335190)
December 20, 1997
White House decides against offering tax plan-report

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The White House has decided against offering any major proposals to cut or simplify taxes in its forthcoming election-year budget, the Washington Post reported in its Sunday edition. Senior administration officials told the newspaper that while producing their own tax simplification formula had political appeal, they concluded there was no way to do so without increasing taxes on the middle class or derailing the plan to balance the budget by 2002.

The Georgia Republican said tax revenues, which were growing faster than anticipated, coupled with selected spending cuts, should enable the White House and Congress to find a way to make additional tax cuts and still produce a balanced budget.

But the Post reported that rather than make major tax proposals, Clinton and his aides probably would sit back and let congressional Republicans take the lead, on the theory that they are too divided among themselves to forge a unified approach and, even if they do, tax cuts would require unpopular tradeoffs that could be exploited by Democratic candidates in the 1998 midterm elections.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:31 - ID#225157)
Maybe if George S Cole comes out of hiding he will help you define the bottom for Gold!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:33 - ID#401460)
New Kid on the Block

"As I predicted,
I have not seen very many of those kind of post.
I personally prefer I called over as I predicted
There hasnt been to many posters who have predicted correctly lately.
However, I did forget to post that I called the top in the market in August.
I also think I called the bottom in Gold but I am going to wait until I am sure.
Frankly, we are wrong so often, it is nice to brag about being right once in a while.

And now you can post "As I predicted,..- doesnt it feel good?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:33 - ID#364147)
Only NINE hours of catchin-up ta do mate~~~~~ya can do it!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:34 - ID#393224)
Gold bottom??
Panda. If you feel enough bottoms, eventually you won't get slapped. You may even get embraced.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:34 - ID#30116)
Earl, let us not forget this beast operating in our midst. Vixen, Vixen, you mighty $VIX.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:35 - ID#364147)
good point mate.....

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:36 - ID#372344)
@ Panda
I posted W.Angell's interview on NBS I believe thursday last.
It was really something to hear, he was clearly worried about the current crisis, on the one hand he didn't feel Gold had much more to drop
260 maybe, but he certainly hoped it did not happen abruptly.
Obviously being worried about Deflation, he did indicate that interest
rates should hold steady ( which means they'll drop ) and he also
mentioned that the US$ is PERCEIVED to be as good as GOLD!
and that the Fed's would not be printing FUNNY MONEY like they
did in the 70's ( which of course means that is exactly what THEY
are doing ) .

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:39 - ID#225157)
Could it be? hmmm Maybe?

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:39 - ID#255190)
It sure seems like someone ..
put a few cats in a bag and tied the top shut here at Kitco! Hope you guys get tired and move on to something a bit more productive. Do we have another indicator here: Kitco Piss-Ant Indicator. I don't for the life of me know what it correlates to but its a good one.

Seems like we are tired and a bit frustrated as a group. We'd like to see some decent action and have been a long time in waiting for its arrival. Unfortunately we have little influence in the matters that concern us. Sometimes that can give you the feeling of being victimized, etc. Let's look at a few things to get some perspective.

First, many of you who have been PM oriented and concerned about the unsustainable nature of the current "Bull Market" in equities have been early in diagnosing this problem. Who could have guessed that we would have gone this far in extending this bubble? The facts have not changed only intensified. It takes alot of courage to get out of the pool when everyone else seems to be having so much fun. Many of you have expressed your concerns to family, friends or colleages and been marginalized. That's a tough 'row to hoe'.

Second, many of you have moved into PM's based on conviction re above. That also was early and you have seen some losses, some even significant losses. That's like salt in a wound isn't it? First you are pretty much alone in your assessment, then you are marginalized by your peers, and finally hurt by a premature move into PM's. Look at this. Think about it. You can't even brag about your gains to those who shunted you off to the side. Ouch.

Finally the PPT is taking your ice cream cone away from you every time the market starts to behave in a way that would vindicate you and propel gold up via a flight to safety. Its so predictable that you've stopped looking forward to even having an ice cream cone let alone eating it and enjoying it. Don't you just hate that when it happens over and over again? I do!

So here we sit. Kind of bunged up. A bit forelorn. Grateful for a few $$ rise. Wincing every time it falls, etc. Hanging in there because we can't convince ourselves that there's much of any other reasonable choices. What to do?!

Well, now you know whatits like to be a pioneer. As much as the history books tell us about the wonder and glory of exploraion - being the first there, yet this is what its really like. You are in the midst of that baptism of fire that has been the experience of many of those who have left the comforts of 'civilization' to find a better place. But its in your bones and you'll never want to go back again. And when you meet a fellow pioneer out in the wild places there is no better company you could have. You can tell by the look in their eyes that they know what it means to be 'away'.

Here we are out in the bush, the praire, around our little Kitco camp-fire. Sharing a few moments. Its time to encourage each other. Time to recognize the achievements we have made in our coming to this place before the others arrive in their time. Congratulations Kitco-ites. You are the pioneers.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:39 - ID#225283)
Nick @ C

G'Day Nick...looks like this has been going on all day since the down under crowd bailed early today. I tell ya it's not fair everyone seems to be gettin pissed and I can drink a drop do to meds on taken...down right jealous I am...pop a Fosters for me.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:40 - ID#227238)
@global whining.
Panda: Actually Ted is presenting as first to serve, environmental cannon fodder, in the global warming thing. Building, as he plans to do, on some forlorn island, will put in him in harms way first, as the polar icecaps recede and the effluent comes to pay him a call.

He could, of course, provide us all with an early warning of impending doom but his luck with ISPs will insure that any sudden absence, on his part, will only be taken as a normal event. He will have, in effect, served no useful purpose at all. More's the pity. His one attempt to serve his fellows, doomed before it is given legs.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:42 - ID#393224)
I called as I predicted, that certain Aussie gold shares have reached the lowest prices we will see in out lifetime ( s ) . Now we all have to drive ( fly ) very carefully.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:43 - ID#30116)
Privateinvestor, Peter
PrivateInvestor -- I feel like I have been through the looking glass many times in this gold market. :- )

Peter -- Nothing goes to zero. A use is always found for the item before that happens. During the depression, corn was burned in place of coal because of the low prices corn fell to. It was cheaper to burn corn as a fuel than coal!

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:52 - ID#225283)
Allen (usa)

Nice Post. Thank you.

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:53 - ID#393224)
Private Eye
G'day Private I. It has always been a serious problem here at Kitco. The Northerners are all totally pissed/stoned or whaterver just as we are getting started and vice versa. Makes it difficult to have an interhemispherical conversation that makes sense. Also a problem to put your tongue in cheek or give a grin, smirk etc. on cyberspace and misunderstandings proliferate. One day soon hope we'll all have mini-cams so's I can grin at you as I call you a @#$%&*. Changes the meaning completely. How long before you can join us in a Fosters ( or better yet, a Victoria Bitter or Boags ( Tassie ) ??

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:54 - ID#364147)
Global whining and .........captain morgan
Earl:Consider that I am moving to the 'front lines'----will put the house as close to the ocean as alowed by zoning ( ?? ) ---no fear!....Already checked ISP ( my realtor there ) on island and is state of the art ( Rockefeller ( Rodney ) has a place 'out there' so this ain't no low- rent disrict----- ( like here ) .....So feel confident that the 'early warning system' is intact and functional ( ? ) once my relocation is completed....

(Sat Dec 20 1997 23:55 - ID#30116)
Nick@C - Those bottoms cost at least $100 ( U.S. ) , but they are friendly and cute. :- ) )

Allen - Thank you... I shall remember your words as I pull the marauding Indians axe from my head. :- ) )

Earl - As a result of Ted's action, should I switch from whiskey to Rum? :- ) )

Another admission of guilt; Agnico Eagle lowered their dividend payout to two cents per share from ten cents.