Robby Hanna: Here 'tis: http://www.gold-eagle.com/currencies.html

John, thanks for your invitation. I really don't know
when I am able to make it to RSA, but I am interested.
Just in case something serious develops, my E-mail
address is: bortep@shainet.org. I am from Michigan.

In regard to vodka - don't worry, if I come over,
I'll bring few bottles of selected stuff with me.
In the mean time, and if you would like to start
doing it on your own to ease tension which you
might have inherited as the result of Kitco discussion,
I would recommend the following brands:

1. Black-n-White "Mellow" Smirnoff Vodka ( Russian )
2. Absolute Vodka ( Swedish )
3. Sterling Vodka ( English )
4. Stolichnaya ( Russian )
5. Golden Ring ( Russian )

shown here in an order of quality and my personal preference.

I would recommend to take 2 ( one ounce ) shots daily to lower
cholesterol level in blood and to prevent heart attack. This
moderate consumption is safe for liver also. Will make you
feel good, and doctors should not object either...

Do not stop posting, me and few other guys will regret it
very much if it happens. Take care...

Very truly yours,

B.Oris

G'day from Kaloorlie in Western Australia, the GOLD Mining Capital of Australia.

Nearly time to emphasis what Kagoorlie is all about - GOLD Mining. Any potential investors should consider booking themselves into the "Diggers and Dealers" Conference held in Kalgoorlie in early July. Past conferences can be source via Altavista - search for "Diggers and Dealers". Early bird catches the worm, some very good buys of Australian stocks at current prices. Better be quick!!

Oatmeal, well it is not to every ones taste, but being Scots that is why Whiskey was invented. Got to be practical!

Nikkei down below 15000 points, s... will hit the fan at 14000 - who has got a surf board and a life jacket.

Aye Haggis

How do you keep paper turkey in suspense?? We'll tell ya tommorrow!! Notice how afew paper green apes have moved over to this site in search
of something they lost and they can't seem to find!! By the way e-mail me all you're prized choices in the PM markets, does this not sound of a person in a tight squeeeze. Keep it coming GOLD GURUS you'll soon be
"DARLINGS" he/she is such a "DARLING". Were'nt we on the other side of this ratio afew short weeks ago?? Sigh!!

Anyone care to venture on why India bucks the down-trend today?

KO - "Who Cares".
India's total market cap is lot less than , say, GM's.
Their market is still too small to matter.

Crusty: I've been swinking in the Yuletide fields and have just caught up on past couple of days. Good to see you're staying true to your eponym.

Sure have been feathers flying at the watering-hole huh?

just an 'orny thology kinda aurator

hi!Prof__w@chmemangleourlanguish...;- )

Well, just look at South Korea! Never question the efficacy of hiring Goldman as your prima advisor. Its magic. ( :- ) )
South Korea/Seoul Composite/^KS11/ 9:31PM/407.21/+7.02/+1.75%
Gnight. Happy Holidays!

Sorry, accept correction:

bortep@shianet.org

How do you keep paper turkey in suspense?? We'll tell ya tommorrow!! Notice how afew paper green apes have moved over to this site in search
of something they lost and they can't seem to find!! By the way e-mail me all you're prized choices in the PM markets, does this not sound of a person in a tight squeeeze. Keep it coming GOLD GURUS you'll soon be
"DARLINGS" he/she is such a "DARLING". Were'nt we on the other side of this ratio afew short weeks ago?? Sigh!!

GOLD IS MAKING A COMEBACK. Yes, gold is making a comeback, the green and gold that is. The Green Bay Packers are on their way to Super Bowl XXXII

Aurator- Did you email me ( Producer ) your snail mail address? It did not arrive proir to my departure to America for the holidays. I see you are offering them to other parties. A market has developed, are central breweries depressing the price?

G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

Lads I may be a wee bit slow, BUT are Goldman Sache on the FED Board, I know that Rothchilds are.

What is the nature of the Goldman Sache "bail out" of Japan. Does this represent a medium to long term trade off to get the Japanese into increasing their GOLD stock from 0.4% ( July 1997 ) to 20-40%.

GOLD standard on the way, controled by Rothchilds - smart boys!

Aye Haggis

...if the Asian destruction of wealth is merely a secular event, why should the Fates that be write an orgy of pain for western markets?

Is it not possible, that given the US is the largest debtor and Asia holds most of this debt, that a firesale is on to retire these obligations for pennies on the dollar, all in the name of an orchestrated bailout? How much in $ of offmarket transactions might occur...and still not ignite price inflation from a larger money supply due to austerity measures and depressed consumer behaviors....hmmm, what is the inverse of stagflation?

Morning to All-

Just a quick query before I go off to the stables for a big clean-up.

I know as much as about horses as I do about finance !! But I'm learning....!!

Please tell me what the expression &Idquo stands for??

Thanks so much- love to you ALL for Christmas !!

John Disney- thanks from SA @ Get-a-gun / a Nuggett [Gauteng} -thanks for keeping up our side of things. I'm proud of you! This is the ONLY time I wish I were on Clifton Beach or Plett over the next few days! Otherwise, I LOVE living on granite and GOLD!! Best regards..

G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

Look out Delta Gold NL and Resolute Gold NL, you are next.........

Aye, Haggis

I guess it was just a big buying opportunity dip.

Yes, Goldman Sachs, Chase Bank, etc. They are also in control of the Treasury Dept. Sect. Treasury Ruben former vice Chairman of G.S, and Summers from G.S.

G'Day,

Nudge, nudge, wink, wink.... say no more.

Aye, Haggis

The Reuters new service says Goldman Sachs is taking on bad Japanese loans that have real estate collateral.

Dow drops to 4,000. Goldman Sachs goes bankrupt. National Bank of Detroit goes bankrupt. Archer Daniels Midland goes bankrupt. Canadians are panicking to cash in their cake coupons out of fear bakery will go bankrupt. Mexico needs ever larger IMF bailout. IMF, out of money asks for more and is turned down.

Hey, it could happen here!

A Kitcoite gave me this address/link a while back filled in some gaps for me may help you and others.

A Personal UPDATE Article
http://www.khouse.org/fedreser.html
The Federal Reserve:
The Engine of Power

These banks are a shoe-in for success. BR's former firm will buy their bad debt. A double whammy. the banks survive and GS makes a mint. HOW ABOUT THAT. http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971221/goldman_sachs_buys_j_1.html

AuProducer ( cool prefix! ) check your Aumailbox for AuSteinie Convertible note. The paper currency redeemable in a cold, gold, beer, ( or two ) .

It seems that this will force these Japanese banks to write off their bad loans. They have kept their books cooked by letting them ride. They must be REALLY short of cash to finally come clean and risk bankruptcy. Maybe depositors are making a run for the money.

Some Kitco earlier posts by others and myself may offer some information as to who is in charge.

"Spud Master - I saw this a while back on a BGO line post, it was in response to a question similar to yours. I don't know if it is true or not - if some one can confirm any of it I would appreciate."
o: John Soileau ( 7247 )
From: John Barendrecht
Oct 1 1997 1:28AM EST
Reply #7258 of 7266

Some facts about the Fed from an article by the Oracle of Alberta

In 1792 the U.S. dollar was conceived and was made equivalent to 24.75 grains of gold.

In 1797 John Adams warned Thomas Jefferson that control over the issuance of money should
never fall into the hands of private interests, as it had in the case of the Bank of England and
Bank of France.

On December 13, 1913 President Woodrow Wilson helped establish the Federal Reserve
System ( the U.S. central bank ) with equity financing of $1 billion from private merchant banks.
The Fed, with its 12 Federal Reserve Banks, would be run by a board of private merchant
bankers and would have absolute powers to manipulate the U.S. money supply.

June 10, 1932, Louis T. McFadden, chair of the House Banking and Currency Committee states
that "some people think the Federal Reserve Banks are United States Government institutions.
They are not Government Institutions. They are private credit monopolies that prey upon the
people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign and domestic
swindlers; and rich and predatory money lenders."

The New York Federal Reserve bank, the largest of the 12 Reserve Banks, provides a unique
custodial responsibility for gold, including storing about one-third of the world's official gold stock
( 12,000 tons ) on behalf of about sixty countries, central banks, and international organizations.

According to an article by Harvey Martin, those names have only recently been revealed through
Standard and Poor sources. The top controllers of the top Federal Reserve Bank in New York
include:

Rothschild banks of London and Berlin
Lazard Brothers Banks of Paris
Israel Moses Seif Banks of Italy
Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam
Lehman Brothers Bank of New York
Kuhn, Loeb Bank of New York
Chase Manhattan Bank of New York ( Rockefeller ) , which controls all of the other 11 Reserve
Banks.
Goldman, Sachs Bank of New York.

The Rockefeller banking group owns 22 percent of shares of the Federal Reserve Bank in New
York and holds 53 percent of the shares in the Federal Reserve System.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

There it is, if this is true, and it probably is , completes the pyramid.
Goldman Sachs' vice Chairman is Secretary of the Treasury plus there are other undersecretaries from GS.
Secretary Robert Ruben of GS specialty is currency trading - he was appointed either the day before or the
day after the PESO collapsed - the largest investment banker in Mexico was Goldman Sachs
Rockefeller & GS are partners in buying back the Rockefeller Center home of NBC - MSNBC
MS Microsoft's banker is GS, NBC is owned by GE their landlord is the Japanese or Rockefeller.
Rockefeller of Arkansas got Clinton out of the draft.
Rockefeller is running for Governor of Arkansas. note: party politics don't matter both Republican & Democrat.
Bush a republican had a Democrat, Lloyd Benson, as Secretary of the Treasury. Who I think served under
Clinton prior to Ruben,
Rockefeller of West Virginia Sponsor of Clinton Health Care Bill.

David Rockefeller " the family is somewhat different than other wealthy families, the wealth is still under one
control" there are 100+ Rockefellers, he knew the exact number.

It would be interesting to find out who has controlling interest in GE. NAFTA, GE has a big plant in Mexico.

My very best wishes to you and your's.

All other Asian markets down 1 to 3% except India.

They all got what they wanted last week. Asia has agreed to let them into their markets.

"The loans it is buying are mainly those with land as collateral, it said."
Goldman Sachs and others are buying @ $0.50 on the dollar. Factor in $/Yen and the price of Gold and it probably is even more interesting.

Viewing the skies, both day and night, was a necessary and constant part of my employment for nearly 10 years. I did so from locations that spanned half the globe.

From Washinton, D.C. to Singapore, I have never viewed anything unusual.

G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

STRUTH......... if you cannot beat these people, join them. They are Masters of the double edged sword. That is why we are GOLD Bugs. I have previously worked as a Geologist for both Rio Tinto and Anglo American Corporation - mere pimples on the Elephants arse, and I KNOW how powerful these mining companies are.

Looks like the American political system is bought and paid for, because the banking system certainly is. Game, set and match. Realities of life.

Aye, Haggis

Good points. Though 85% by-product from gold and copper seems high; but with both the yellow and the red metals down and silver not amiable to SX-EW you may be very close to the real thing. Hiho Silver Away.

Aurator- Your book will be on the way as soon as I return from the tropics ( Seattle ) . I may have to wait on my payment because I booked a trip to SA to settle this fued between Haggis and J Disney personally. And of course look at some mining properties in SA. I might run out of discretionary travel before breakup occurs and I go back to digging up gold colored rocks.

Dreaming of the Long White Cloud.......

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

Good luck with your trip to South Africa. Concerning your iternary, you may well wish to contact Dr Oskar Steffen of Steffen Robertson and Kirsten who may be able to assist you with organised mine trips. He will know who "Haggis" is.

May I suggest that you visit - Western Deep Levels, Vaal Reefs at Klerksdorp, and Welkom. The key mining issue is the status of geological resources and the convertion to mineable reserves, plus the capitalisation of new/merged projects. The key social issues are black education, jobs, housing and CRIME - BE VERY CAREFUL, especially in Johannesburg. I lived ten years in Africa, one year in South Africa; South Africa is not for me.

Aye, Haggis

I'm having difficulties in following your line of thinking.

Are you stating that this banking cartel started this crisis inorder to get into the asian soil where it can control companies, monies, and people in a new sector!

Or are they protecting their interests. and if so would they not then be under atack from another cartel?!

Please elaberate!

I for one have felt that the gov belt up the infastructure of this country in order for large corps. or families to reap the profits.

We the people also get the bill when one of the major corps. or families little ventures go bad.

NO

No either premis?

Or no! you wish not to explain further!

Monkey Person, hey, you should talk to Missing_link. Unfortunately asserting an experiential negative has value only to the individual. For example, I've never seen a gay lesbian Innuit, therefore there aren't any...what were you looking for/at/after?

AuProducer, most kind. The redeemable convertible steinie notes accrue interest in the fashion of "shorts" or chasers. I hope you understand amigo! ;- ) Near or far, steinie notes are worth their weight in golden brew.

But you don't want to deprive crusty and Haggis of their sparring, it makes for interesting times.


aurasouthernconstellationsarebeautiful

refer
We had a discussion around the dinner table tonight about this kind of situation. Does it just happen or do a bunch of financially powerful families set up the situation - maybe GOD is behind it all? I do not know, history will tell. That is all we have to work with - their past associations, actions and avtivities, which are known.

My concern is that the people need to know that these families and relationships exist. They need to know where their tax dollars are going - that their Central Banks are owned by others. They need to be aware of the relationships these people and organizations have with their politicians and government.

It is all public information just not of interest to the press or the public - the public appears to not care or is afraid of the truth.

I am not suggesting anything. What I am doing is just forwarding information that I and others have found. The truth will speak for itself.

No government agency, no matter how powerful, has jurisdiction over the truth.

Aurator- Farfel says I am an idiot and I smell so my chances of being taken serious in this forum is very, very slight, I really am just a digger. Not suitable for survival in the new paradigm. The only thing I have to offer is an open mined. Yo conosco amigo.

Haggis- thank you very much for your suggestions. I will take them to heart.Esp. about the dangers in Joberg. I would however feel strange contacting your friend. " Hi I'm from Alaska and I met a friend of yours named Haggis from Australia on the net and he said to ring you up..."

AuratoranytimeyouwanttomeetagayEskimoicanhelp

Someone please right me. Does the U.S. Republic have its foundations in capitalism or its constitution?

U.S. Church and State are ordered separated. Is Corporate and State separated? What happens if they are not?

Is capitalist doctrine mentioned in the U.S. Constitution?

Am I a traitor? Can I denounce certain "free market" and financial policies, or advocate a better way, yet swear my allegiance to the Constitution? Can I have one without the other?

In case of such an emergency, what is the priority of sacrifice? Which goes first, the Constitution or the Corporate?

Please help. I'm having a fundamental ideological failure. The lemmings have got me really confused.

In vertigo,

Monkee Person

You did not see, but you were not looking. I was looking.

"PALLADIUM DEMAND ON THE RISE".
If it works out that way; this may help Stillwater??
Auto Industry demand said to to increase 710,000 ounces over 1996 and electronics to increase in 1997 by 500,000 ounces. Other applications to increase by 60,000 ounces. NM report condensed from J-M Study.
Still like Silver better, IMO.

People try to call what we are discussing a conspiracy, I disagree, it is just business as usual and I have posted that opinion many times. If my family and yours had such power we would have an obligation to our families and possibly the world to use our power as affectively as possible. I personally believe there is a moral obligation that goes with such power.

Unfortunately history does not speak well of them in many situations - maybe this is why they are wealthy and powerful.

The point is, that what we are witnessing today, is just more of their business as usual approach to world events; whether they had any thing to do with these events happening is hard to so, but you can be sure they will be there to take advantage of the situation - just as you and I hope to profit from the expected rise in Gold as a result of what has happened and is still unfolding in the world.

MP actually, I was speaking unplain. I take it you have not lived your life on the set for 2001 awaiting Hal, when you were gazing heavenwards, what were you a-spying?

AuP...you are most obliging, what a group! someone has a lesbian eskimo at hand.

I do recommend that all those who think they are free-thinkersdiscover the wonderful writings of Charles Fort.

auraheyyoumeanotherpeoplecandothistoo?

CRIMINAL BANKING HERE TOO?

Elements in the FDIC are aware that certain U.S. banks ( note: banks, not thrifts ) are controlled by organized criminal groups. The particulars are available, yet will not be presented to the U.S. Congress for fear of lethal retaliation.

Why Congress? Because, I am told, that is the FDIC's chartered avenue.

Highrise - I read the article and was intrigued by this part:

Some of these bills can still be found. They can be recognized by

their distinctive red seal on the front of the bill instead of the green

seal of Federal Reserve Notes. Above the portrait appears the

words "United States Note." Printed were $2 and $5 notes,18

series 1963, and C. Douglas Dillon's signature appears as Secretary

of Treasury. The reverse side of these bills is identical to the Federal

Reserve Notes.

You see.....I have one of these two dollar bills ( my grandfather gave it to me long ago ) and the date is 1953 not 1963. It is signed by C. Douglas Dillon and the seal is red. What gives?? And is it worth more than two dollars??$? Anyone?

away...to night-night



with this Lesbian Eskimo??!?

a-way out of the closet??

seeingitall

Any one here think Narco-money has its paws deeper into the US Government than we are led to believe? It should scare the "pants" off of ya.

I was hoping you would not reiterate the question, because I can't answer it.

Nothing covert. I just receive too much contrary dialogue from certain positions when I do reveal just what it was that I was doing.

Suffice it to say, the work was U.S. Government-related ( i.e. not ornithology ) . But, again, nothing covert.

I don't know, but I will try to stop at the coin shop this week and attemp to get an answer to your question. I will try to get back to you in a day or so. This gave me an idea of a few other questions to ask.

G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

I cannot remember the publication off hand, but it was concerned with GOLD, Drugs, Hong Kong, China, South Africa, and the British. Historically, the Brits mined gold via South Africa, bought drugs with gold from the Chinese, and they all lived and prospered happily thereafter.

So, what has changed in the modern world?!

Aye, Haggis

Yes. And, my prior questions were not entirely rhetorical, as I sincerely believe that U.S. sovereign purpose has become muddled at best.

I'm off.

G'Day,

I would NOT feel a bit shy contacting Dr Steffen, strictly business. Steffen Robertson and Kirsten are a VERY LARGE international mining consulting group, based in Jo'burg with offices in Europe, north and South America and Australia. Source them through Altavista. I am sure that "Old" Oskar would be more than happy to accomodate, particularly if you are from Alaska - potential business.

My email is - gabbro@gold.net.au

If you wish I can give you an intro to Dr Steffen.

Aye, Haggis

Haggis, Sounds like you be speaking of a hound named LaRouche, Laddie. -----Arf----

Read this! Any comments? http://www.usvetdsp.com/usvet/Dragon.htm

http://www.nypostonline.com/business/1957.htm

http://www.nypostonline.com/business/1957.htm
This is the kind of news reports we have been waiting for ! What we have been saying here now showing up in the press - Great!

For AuProducer

If you serious about visiting here - Come and see the Cape - Suggest

consider residential ( or commercial ) property Capetown which might even

do better than gold mine. Be EXTREMELY careful in Joberg _.

Try to get to Paarl - Kim has decided to open a small Guesthouse here

4 people max - In self contained cottage on our property - Rates are low.

You get kitco discount which varies between individuals - Oris free -

Haggis + 1000% for example ( Sloshcrap is covered by blanket right to

refuse entry sign ) . But you must like dogs - have three. Wife Kim confirms my worst fears that I may be of extraterrestrial origins ( is there something my mother didnt tell me ?? )

Oddly, Haggis recomendations on mines to visit are very good - I would

definite include Harmony - I hear great reports on their efficiency.

For CMAX - I respectfully suggest you run off and try to procreate your

species with yourself, you ingentlemanly insulter of New Zealand

women.

to someone who asked about platinum costs.

Some asked me directly about operating cost on various platinum mines

- I forgot who - This will take a lot of time which I presently wasting

argueing with a few no-hopers. Will get back later. In the meantime lease

refer your question to Sinbadthesailer - he seems to have a direct link

to nelson mandela - Im sure that between the two of them they can come

up with an answer. Common sinbad - do some work for a change - Or try

Haggis of oatmeal fame. See if he knows anything other than SA is not

for him.

Now really, you chaps! Have printed out and looked and looked and not even ONE answer on what this strange &Idquo stands for??

Don't you all miss Nick/sharefin? Wish his ISP would start behaving!
And wonder how Jin is doing?

Aurator dear, are you cross with me? You normally know everything that's going around? { did you see that translating Dictionary thingie I posted to you the other day? - haven't had time to look through back posts except for glimpse] All the best and all joy to you!-

Tolerant1- Despite knowing otherwise, in my mind you have the old-world charm, courtesy and intelligence of the best of America! Thank you for your good wishes- My very best regards...

AuProducer- If you are coming to RSA- we will also be happy to welcome you to Johannesburg and give you a taste of South African hospitality-
John Disney knows where I am and how to contact me.

EB- thought you'd gone to bed!- are you going away for the holidays? Lots of good wishes and ENJOY!

Haggis- How do you do? Also Buddy and Monkee Person. Jack and all the others who are new to me. Best wishes to all.

PrivateInvestor- also had a glimpse that you have been ill. Hope you are feeling much better, and that 1998 brings perfect health to you. Kind regards.

Now, where are some of those trillions going?

Newserver, obliged to you again.

The Japanese stole Western technology through America, with Americas approval and assistance beginning in the '50's. The Chinese, also being once **the enemy** have learnt the lesson, the US gov once again helps *its enemy with technology. Who would be an ally? We ( allies ) pay. Just remind me once more why we should be grateful allies? Not you BigC.

Colleen. I talk a lot, don't mean I know anything. Q.E.D.

I think we are far better off with China as an ally that as an enemy --
just imagine if China became great friends with Iraq - doesn't
bear thinking about ..
Gold up $290.35 - looking much stronger....

goodnite Cherokee

My pleasure. Interesting about Senator Jesse Helms, eh?

Japan Nikkei 225 14799.40 -515.49 -3.37% But gold is UP $0.90!

Re China - they are clever, and what we are doing now is what Chanberlain did for the Allies in another time. We will pay, and yet we keep cutting our military as if there was no tomorrow. God help us all.

As Im about to update my Newspaper-Archive I found an article about the valuation of Gold-reserves in various european-union CBs which could be interesting for some of you.
( Source: Austrian Press Agency, Date: 30.05.97 )

Prices in US$/troz:

Belgium: 382
Italy: 380
France: 370
Ireland: 350
Portugal: 321
UK: 297
Denmark: 295
Spain: 270
Finland: 250
Netherlands: 247
Greece: 237
Austria: 166
Germany: 92 ( unchanged since 1979 )
Luxemburg: 56
Sweden: 50

IMF Credibility Is on the Line In Asia Bailout
Agency Should Rethink Rescues, Some Critics Say
By Paul Blustein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, December 22, 1997; Page A01
Michel Camdessus, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, doesn't usually tell stories in public about his secret meetings with officials of financially strapped countries. But at a news conference last week, the Frenchman couldn't resist recounting how he and his deputy, Stanley Fischer, had traveled to Seoul in November to privately warn top South Korean leaders that their economy was hurtling toward disaster.
"Mr. Fischer and myself visited Korea separately in a totally discreet way to tell the authorities that it was essential to take action with no delay," Camdessus said. "They had, as many others, a tremendous difficulty in recognizing the facts."
So the South Koreans failed to respond to threats of a massive exodus of foreign capital, Camdessus said, and by the time they began scrambling later that month, "it was too late."
Seldom, if ever, in the IMF's 53-year history has it faced such a daunting challenge to its competence in maintaining global financial stability. Although the fund, acting in concert with the Clinton administration, has marshaled more than $100 billion in the past three months to bail out the economies of Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea, the financial crisis in Asia shows only spotty signs of abating. Camdessus's disclosure of the secret meetings in Seoul was strategic, not impulsive, for he is defending the IMF against charges that it misjudged the crisis and is floundering in its effort to contain it.
Critics are citing the grim news from the region's financial markets as evidence that the IMF, a 181-nation organization based in Washington, should drastically change its approach for rescuing troubled economies. The fund doles out loans to countries that are short of the U.S. dollars and other currencies they need to pay obligations to foreigners. In exchange, the countries pledge to adopt belt-tightening measures and take steps to restructure their economies such as scrapping government regulations and liberalizing their markets.
"Since the time the IMF has signed each Asian bailout program, the respective Asian currencies have continued to plummet," Harvard University professor Jeffrey Sachs, a leading IMF critic, wrote in a letter published last Friday in the Financial Times.
The IMF's credibility is on the line not only in Asia. On Dec. 12 it renewed a suspended credit line for Russia's cash-starved government, despite qualms among some experts about whether President Boris Yeltsin has the political clout to implement reforms such as improving tax collection.
Nowhere, though, is an IMF program as dangerously close to collapse as in South Korea, which received a second, $3.5 billion installment of its $57 billion rescue package Thursday, the same day as longtime dissident Kim Dae Jung won the nation's presidency.
Kim, who is closely tied to South Korea's militant labor unions, had suggested during his campaign that he would insist on renegotiating Seoul's Dec. 3 agreement with the IMF, especially provisions that would entail layoffs and bankruptcies at failing banks and companies.
Even though Kim later vowed to honor the deal, and reiterated that pledge in his first speech to the nation as president-elect, his victory triggered a plunge in the Korean won, a dip many analysts attributed to doubts about his resolve to impose economic discipline. The country can ill afford a further erosion of investor confidence because despite the IMF money and several billion dollars more in emergency loans announced last week, the South Korean banking system holds barely enough foreign currencies to pay debts owed to foreigners before year-end.
"I think they'll just make it through, but they have very little maneuverability," said a financial industry official who is studying the money flows closely. The official requested anonymity.
IMF officials predict that South Korea and its ailing Asian neighbors will recover because, after an initial period of half-heartedly accepting the need for economic policy change, they are starting to move more aggressively. One example is Seoul's decision last week to allow interest rates to soar, which helped buoy the won by making South Korean investments more attractive.
"Now we must be patient and persevere on our side in supporting these programs, as the countries themselves must persevere in implementing them," a senior IMF official said. "These programs do not have immediate miraculous effects. No, here we are dealing with confidence; it is very difficult to rebuild it sometimes."

Rest ofstory:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-12/22/104l-122297-idx.html

up $1.40

- FRB Top-Dog Shares His Candid Opinion On Gold

- Greenspan: Still Going for the Gold

Once at the following website, scroll down until you see Mr. Greenspans bright-eyes peeping out at you, then CLICK him... where ever you like. IF you do NOT see Greenspans photo, RELOAD THE PAGE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com

J. Disney and Aurator:
You are probably right, that the NZ humor came off a little
heavy, and I do humbly retract it. ( After all, NZ is but an
American colony. )

Feel as you will towards me, I hold no ill feelings for either
of you. The best of season to both of you.

South Africa JSE All Gold +20.9 ( +2.73% )

EB:
Ya, I have a collection of those Treasury Notes too, mounted right alongs some old German bonds dating back to 1922, that my grandaddy gave me, that are supposed to worth a zillion marks ( reichs ) now. ( And they were ticketed at 8% ) I keep them as a somber reminder of the essence of fiat money.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971222/boj_report_says_japa_1.html

This is very impressive indeed. Paper market faltering while gold and silver seem to be getting a second wind. The irrelevance of the metals is certainly questionable eh? The market fail to take into account 6,000 years of market history. Regarding 6 golden rings I submit the following freshly pirated off the net.

December 14, 1972
My dearest darling John:
Who ever in the whole world would dream of getting a real Partridge in
a Pear Tree? How can I ever express my pleasure. Thank you a hundred
times for thinking of me this way.
My love always,
Agnes
================================================

December 15, 1972
Dearest John:
Today the postman brought your very sweet gift. Just imagine two turtle
doves. I'm just delighted at your very thoughtful gift. They are just
adorable.
All my love,
Agnes

================================================

December 16, 1972
Dear John:
Oh! Aren't you the extravagant one. Now I must protest. I don't deserve
such generosity, three French hens. They are just darling but I must
insist, you've been too kind.
All my love,
Agnes

================================================
December 17, 1972
Dear John:
Today the postman delivered four calling birds. Now really, they
are beautiful, but don't you think enough is enough. You are
being too romantic.
Affectionately,
Agnes
================================================
December 18, 1972
Dearest John:
What a surprise. Today the postman delivered five golden rings,
one for every finger. You're just impossible, but I love it.
Frankly, all those birds squawking were beginning to get on
my nerves.
All my love,
Agnes
=================================================
December 19, 1972
Dear John:
When I opened the door today there were actually six geese laying
on my front steps. So you're back to the birds again huh? These
geese are huge. Where will I ever keep them? The neighbors are
complaining and I can't sleep through the racket. Please stop.

Cordially,
Agnes
================================================
December 20, 1972
John:
What's with you and those freaking birds?? Seven swans a swimming.
What kind of joke is this? There's bird poop all over the house
and they never stop the racket. I can't sleep at night and
I'm a nervous wreck. It's not funny.
So stop those freaking birds.
Sincerely,
Agnes
================================================
December 21, 1972
O.K. Buster:
I think I prefer the birds. What the hell am I going to do with
8 maids a milking? It's not enough with all those birds and
8 maids a milking, but they had to bring their darn cows.
There is manure all over the lawn and I
can't move in my own house. Just lay off me, smartass.

Agnes
================================================

December 22, 1972
Hey Bonehead:
What are you.....some kind of sadist? Now there's nine pipers playing.
And great Ceasar's ghost do they play. They've never stopped chasing those maids since they got here yesterday morning. The cows are getting upset and they're stepping all over those screeching birds. What am I going to do? The neighbors have started a petition to evict me.
You'll get yours !
Agnes
================================================

December 23, 1972
You rotten jerk:
Now there's ten ladies dancing. I don't know why I call those
sluts ladies. They've been playing around with those pipers all
night long. Now the cows can't sleep and they've got diarrhea.
My living room is a river of crap. The Commissioner of Buildings
has subpoenaed me to give cause why the building
shouldn't be condemned. I'm calling the police on you !

Agnes
================================================

December 24, 1972
Listen you "#$%*_"
What's with those eleven lords a leaping on those maid and ladies?
Some of those broads will never walk again. Those pipers ran through
the maids and have been committing sodomy with the cows. All twenty-three
of the birds are dead. They've been trampled to death in the orgy.
I hope you're satisfied, you rotten vicious swine.

You're sworn enemy,
Agnes
================================================

December 25, 1972
Dear Sir:
This is to acknowledge your latest gift of twelve fiddlers fiddling
which you have seen fit to inflict on our client, Miss Agnes McHolstein.
The destruction, of course, was total. All correspondence should come
to our attention. If you should attempt to reach Miss McHolstein at
Happy Dale Sanitarium, the attendants have been instructed to
shoot you on sight. With this letter please find attached a warrant for your arrest.

Cordially,
Law Offices

of
Badger, Bender and Chole

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971222/japan_finmin_to_meet_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971222/japan_economy_1stld_2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971222/malaysia_economy_yea_1.html

This prediction gains tremendous credibility after you read the credentials of its author:

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

If we go back to an earlier section of this paper, we observed that after 1971, when the artificial pressure was lifted from gold prices that prices advanced to a peak of 24 times the old price and settled around approximately 10 times the old price. No two
events in any market develop precisely the same, but just as an
exercise, if something similar happens this time, gold prices might peak near $8,400.00, and settle around $3,500.00 an ounce.

The remote possibility that these numbers can be correct, is enough evidence to make it easy to understand why the central bankers and high government officials around the world want to denigrate, denounce, discard, disown and dislike gold, plus keep prices low. It makes one want to take time to consider what the implications of anything remotely resembling this happening might be. The last time gold had been held down artificially for 37 years. This time, so far, it has only been 17, which may lessen the next rise. On the other hand we have asset markets that have reached such lofty levels, where no less an authority than the FED Chairman has described the situation, as long as a year ago, as "Irrational Exuberance". So who can tell? Let's not lose sight, while we are pondering the question, of the trillions and trillions of fiat megabyte dollars, yen, marks, and what have you, that are whizzing around the world electronically every minute of every hour of every day. They have to end up buying something, and it might just be gold one of these days.

Part II of his mind-blowing essay is located at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/jmiller122097.html

Mornin.

COMPANY NEWS ( sm ) provided by Dow Jones Online News


12/22/97 Homestake Mining To Buy Australia's Plutonic For $640 Million

By Karen Blumenthal

Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal


Homestake Mining Co., moving to lower its cost of producing gold, said it agreed to acquire Plutonic Resources Ltd. of Sydney, Australia, for $640 million in stock.
The purchase will allow the San Francisco mining company to increase its 1998 production by about 25%, while cutting its cost of production to about $225 an ounce from about $240 an ounce this year.
Cutting production costs is crucial for Homestake, especially at a time when gold prices have sunk to 18-year lows of below $300 an ounce. The company has lagged behind other gold producers, and earlier this year was outbid in an attempt to acquire Santa Fe Pacific Gold Corp., a purchase that also would have boosted reserves while chopping costs.
In offering to exchange 0.34 share, valued at about $3.3788 a share, for each of Plutonic's shares, Homestake is paying an 86% premium over Plutonic's closing price Friday. Jack E. Thompson, Homestake's president and chief executive, said the premium reflects the decline in the Australian dollar against the U.S. currency and the thumping Plutonic's stock price has taken as gold prices slid. "This is a rare circumstance where share-price movements have created opportunity for us to create a larger, stronger company," Mr. Thompson said. He said Plutonic will add to Homestake's 1998 net income, before one-time transaction costs. He estimated Plutonic will account for about 75% of Homestake's earnings next year and about 40% of its cash flow.
In exchange, Plutonic shareholders will receive 64.3 million shares, or about 30% of Homestake's stock outstanding and the liquidity of a U.S. dollar-denominated stock. The company operates five mines in Western Australia and has substantial potential reserves as well as land for exploration.
Mr. Thompson said the combined company, which will be the second-largest producer in Australia behind Normandy Mining Ltd., expects to cut about $20 million in costs by combining offices. The transaction, which is subject to shareholder and regulatory approval, is expected to close in April.
Though the purchase is the largest for Homestake since it bought International Corona Ltd. in 1992, Mr. Thompson said Homestake continues to court other companies and could make additional acquisitions next year. "One of the things we learned with Santa Fe is that you can't just focus on one," he said.
Homestake was advised by SBC Warburg Dillon Read Inc. and Plutonic's finanical adviser was Macquarie Corporate Finance. On Friday, Homestake shares fell 25 cents to $9.9375 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.
Copyright ( c ) 1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
All Rights Reserved.

12:21 AM
Copied from the PRODIGY ( R ) service 12/22/97 08:05

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/971219/tx_caltex_currency_1.html

Our local networkcorrespondent noticed some agitation this weekend between members of the disneytribe due to egoproblems of the great witch.
She ( he ) seems still to suffer from motherneglect endured when she was a child ( her mother was not proud of her ) .
Local tam tam ( newspapers ) seem to promote local gold and miningproducts.Although apreciated by the civilized world the information should be verified twice due to multiple errors in the past.
The origins of the tribewitch seems to be a conservative island on the old continent.Although this island is mostly civilized some tribal activities persist in the north.
Many nostalgique colonials seem to be socialized and liberated on the outside now that times have changed, but some are still the same.
So one should not be surprised to find out that some are tempted to create a new minority group.Most rituals take place in private meetings
So all non members of the disneytribe ought to know that they will be accepted and read as long their speech does not contain any xenophobique language based on race, religion or sex.
Messages should preferable be adressed to all and not only to private individuals.The goal is not to create another klan but to promote freedom of speech and information!!!

PS:Dont react immediately to this speech so it will show a long time on top of the list....

December 22, 1997

Homestake to Buy Plutonic
In $640 Million Stock Deal

By KAREN BLUMENTHAL
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Homestake Mining Co., moving to lower its cost of producing gold, said it
agreed to acquire Plutonic Resources Ltd. of Sydney, Australia, for $640
million in stock.

The purchase will allow the San Francisco mining company to increase its
1998 production by about 25%, while cutting its cost of production to
about $225 an ounce from about $240 an ounce this year. The acquisition
will make Homestake the third-largest North America-based gold
producer.

Cutting production costs is crucial for Homestake, especially at a time
when gold prices have sunk to 18-year lows of below $300 an ounce. The
company has lagged behind other gold producers, and earlier this year
was outbid in an attempt to acquire Santa Fe Pacific Gold Corp., a
purchase that also would have boosted reserves while chopping costs.

In offering to exchange 0.34 share, valued at about $3.3788 a share, for
each of Plutonic's shares, Homestake is paying an 86% premium over
Plutonic's closing price Friday. Jack E. Thompson, Homestake's president
and chief executive, said the premium reflects the decline in the Australian
dollar against the U.S. currency and the thumping Plutonic's stock price
has taken as gold prices slid.

"This is a rare circumstance where share-price movements have created
opportunity for us to create a larger, stronger company," Mr. Thompson
said. He said Plutonic will add to Homestake's 1998 net income, before
one-time transaction costs. He estimated Plutonic will account for about
75% of Homestake's earnings next year and about 40% of its cash flow.

In exchange, Plutonic shareholders will receive 64.3 million shares, or
about 30% of Homestake's stock outstanding and the liquidity of a U.S.
dollar-denominated stock. The company operates five mines in Western
Australia and has substantial potential reserves as well as land for
exploration.

Mr. Thompson said the combined company, which will be the
second-largest producer in Australia behind Normandy Mining Ltd.,
expects to cut about $20 million in costs by combining offices. The
transaction, which is subject to shareholder and regulatory approval, is
expected to close in April.

Though the purchase is the largest for Homestake since it bought
International Corona Ltd. in 1992, Mr. Thompson said Homestake
continues to court other companies and could make additional acquisitions
next year. "One of the things we learned with Santa Fe is that you can't
just focus on one," he said.

Homestake was advised by SBC Warburg Dillon Read Inc. and Plutonic's
financial adviser was Macquarie Corporate Finance. On Friday,
Homestake shares fell 25 cents to $9.9375 in New York Stock Exchange
composite trading. In Sydney trading Monday, shares of Plutonic jumped
16 Australian cents, or 5.7%, to A$2.80.

Return to top of page
Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Tortfeasor ( Joke of the day ) : Many thx! Got my laughter ration for a week.

It is now beginning to become clear that almost anyone and
anything can be allowed to fail...as long as it isn't a bank!

Would anyone kindly tell where to access this
info. I can't get a reading from the frames
here at Kitco.

Lou_Jan: COMEX GOLD PRICES & MORE: Major wrold financial centers: New Your, London, Singapore, Tokio, etc etc:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971222/markets_precious_1.html

Earl: I should be workin on the deck ( grin thing )

Youll have to download and perhaps print it out. It is beginning to look as if Mosler has back-engineered...
And one begins to wonder if his theory is the Treasurys modus operandi
It certainly would be a palatable belief system for Spenders Anonymous.

http://www.gate.net/~mosler/softecon.htm

Donald, once again thanks ( Caltex post ) . It is a puzzle...
The Tbond was up in Japan trading too...

My ISP's news story ( as one logs-in ) is "HK to destroy chickens
without health papers." ( I must be losing it, this strikes me
as very funny; a new industry ) .

Tolerant1: Camdesses IS being taken care of! Yes!

TO VRONSKY: Really appreciate your info on
gold spot world markets!

New Your? Ah, but for the love of an errant pinky.

Gold Rising on COMEX: http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

According to several articles in Gold-Eagle and other interntet sites
gold trade has achieved an unprecedented volume, yet EVERYBODY of major
influence seemes to be afraid of gold standard like devil is afraid of flash.

What if the support AGAINST gold standard is not restricted to LBMA, Rotchilds, Rockefellers and J. P. Morgan, but is also in the interest of many larger than small industries etc.

I am certain everybody here knows what barter deals are, goods for goods, commodities for commodities right? It is one way to hedge from potential losses from exchange rates, it's also a good way to avoid taxation, right?

You move my lawn, I fix you car. Where is income ( income tax ) , sales ( sales tax ) and so on. The problem is that this system requires a widely acceptable COMMODITY to be used on large scale.

And what is gold now???

If I have got something totally wrong, please correct me, since I'm not an economist myself.

Geb

SDRer using a feather is erotic, but using the whole chicken is kinky.

Ain't nobody home but us chickens

As we speak: 90 day US paper-5.33%, 30 year US paper-5.90%.

How terribly cynical of you ;- ) Seems your proposal would put respectable firms in the same catagory as drug&gun runners ( ohmy! ) . LBMA cycles US$10 Bln per day paper gold transactions. Do you think that is a big enough market to be used as "currency"? This figure is comparable to amounts transacted in other single currencies. I'm sure there are things we will never see in print, but feeling this part of the elephant certainly feels like it is as per your post. Other than that insight what can we do with this information? Archive for later retrieval ..

I know who my enemies are. As all should, I keep an eye on friends. They are usually in a better position to commit mischief upon one than are
enemies.
France and britain as well as germany and others. Where do they really stand?
Look at the treatment we give OZ and NZ as an example of how friends are treated by friends.
I prefer an enemy over the long haul!
We as a nation always treat them better too!!

Thoughts on Mosler: His insight seems to be that given fiat money and a government policy of providing currency as needed, then government coercion though taxes has the effect of creating money. I see the argument and find if frightening. It makes the any protection racket a source of new money in a fiat currency system. This may be the new utopian model for "making slaves love their servitude".

December 22, 1997
Bank of Canada buying Canadian dollars - traders

TORONTO, Dec 22 ( Reuters ) - The Bank of Canada intervened and bought Canadian dollars for U.S. dollars at around 0815 EST/1315 GMT as the currency traded around the C$1.4345 ( US$0.6971 ) level, and it continued to buy as the currency weakened, dealers said.

They said the currency's weakness was due to the central bank's failure to raise short-term interest rates. Following the intervention, the Canadian dollar traded as low as C$1.4353, after Friday's close of C$1.4313. Traders expected the central bank to continue to intervene to counter selling pressure on the currency.
The Bank of Canada does not comment on intervention.

If you think you own the system then you also think you own the players. The illusion is to keep the players from easily recognizing the control you exert so they will continue to play. Everyone knows that 'Vegas is a losing proposition, yet many go there to 'have fun', even come back with winnings. The system must provide winnings and the perception of the possibility of winning in order to motivate toward involvement. As we speak DOW is "winning" and the game goes on.

Lou_Jan: try

http://cgi.ino.com/exchanges/nymex.html

You would be amazed at the large number of footnotes Mosler
is accorded in current papers. I personally find his thesis an
anathema, laughed when first I read it ( 14 months ago ) , but now
feel compelled to circle the circle, restlessly looking, questioning, wondering...and experiencing a creeping fog of fear.

If we accept that government bonds and currencies are at best an illusion of wealth, and that stock markets trading at 5 times book value may be over-priced in view of falling profits and currency upheaval, then the only investment alternative is gold. Realizing this, governments have driven down the price of gold. In order for the world to continue to believe in the government promoted illusion, the price of gold must continue to fall. If the world were not on the edge of an economic collapse, the price of gold would not be so low. An analysis by John Kutyn:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn121797.html

I hear the food is good there this time of year

Thank you Mr. Puetz. As I mentioned last nite, if you just do the opposite of what the Putzmeister says, you will almost always make money. The SP calls I bought last night are up and headed higher.... while I generally dont speculate on a one or two day bet on the market, I would really rather go to Vegas, the Puetzers calls are hard to pass up...

Thanks again Puetz

cember 21, 1997

Dollar plunge will raise rates despite impact on economy

TORONTO ( CP ) - After plunging to its lowest level in nearly 12 years, the sagging Canadian dollar could get a break this week as financial markets settle in for quiet trading before the Christmas holidays. "The lack of market activity could just work in the Canadian dollar's favor," says Canada Trust analyst Aaron O'Malley, noting that light trading and no real market-moving economic data for North America may take the pressure off the currency.

Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC Wood Gundy, warns that hiking

interest rates aggressively to boost the dollar will dampen domestic

spending and cost the country at least 100,000 jobs next year.

"Whether in good economic times or bad, the Bank of Canada never sits

idly by when the Canadian dollar loses more than three per cent of its value

over a short period, as has been the case over the past two months."

Porter and Rosenberg agree, saying any sign the bank is "turning a blind

eye to speculative pressure on the currency" would risk sparking a dramatic

bond selloff by foreign investors, who own roughly $130 billion of

Canadian dollar-denominated bonds.

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Dollar-What-Now.html

Noted U.S. stock market expert continues to lean towards Dow 5700-6400 being seen sometime in front of the middle of next year, regardless of how high it might get in early '98 weeks ( which is absolutely the Street's plan, but clearly capable of being derailed by even hints of news, which should worry traders, especially this time of year ) . In fact he asserts, If anything my Dow leanings might be too optimistic ( by about a thousand Dow points or so ) . Regarding current market action, he gleefully says, "WOW, I'm glad we're SHORT!"

1998 looks grim for common stocks:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger121997.html

For Oris -

Let me tell you - armed with the info on vodka you

had given me, I went to my favorite booze shop - I like

it because they have a wide range and its cheap. I

shouldered aside a few of my colored brothers and picked

up a bottle of Jamieson's for equivalent of 9$US which I

thought was fair. Then a liqueur from Namibia in a lovely

bottle ( a moment of madness ) then to the vodka - No

stolichniyah - only pushkin and smirnoff - but CHEAP

25 Randinis thats 6 US.

But then the revelation - I got a bottle of swedish

absolute flavored with black currants for about 9 us.

Id never have bought it if you hadnt told me. Then I

went back to house and put it in the freezer - in a few

hours I was feeling a little tense and thought Id try some.

My god oris - this stuff is wonderful. Wife Kim tried it

and said that it was "healing" - I said "probably".

then she said that it even made her feel good - That

after all is the general idea. But it is good - so back I

went and got 3 more bottles - 2 citron and another

Blackie - Our christmas is already a success - thanks

to kitco and oris who KNOWS what hes talking about.

TO 6pak;
Is this the lowest the C$1.4345 ( US$0.6971 ) the dollar has ever been?

There is nothing that could or would be less truncated then you most appealing to me as that which I have eaten. I relish the concept of feasting on your reticular matter.

It seems to be as difficult to be an economist these days without also being a control freak as it is to be a psychologist ( especially a behaviorist ) without also being interested in running peoples' lives. Your Mosler stuff lays bare the human behavior control implications of fiat currencies. I hadn't realized before the obvious and direct connection between fiat currencies and the behaviorist use of "token systems" to control human behavior. The "right" to issue and regulate currency is the "right" to control the consequences of human behavior. And the ability to control consequences is key to all control attempts. B F Skinner, in Beyond Freedom and Dignity laid out the case in stark and ominous terms for doing so in all our "best interests". I had entirely missed until now that his plan is being implemented on a scale larger than anything he could have imagined. He must be smiling in his grave.

Check this out for pictures of visible gold in ore at BCMD per their news release 12-18, sure is pretty!

http://members.aol.com/DavidcG580/bcmdore2.html

La vie en rose Edith Piaf She died very young because of a drinking problem
Now you can join AA

http://members.aol.com/DavidcG580/bcmd.html

TO tolerant1 & Karlito.
There are interesting times. No time to fight.Lets put our heads
together and make some MUCHO DOLLERO.

Mikey @ 10:37: I do not know if this is the lowest ever. It has been mentioned a 12 year low. My view suggests, that the Canadian dollar has a greater value, say maybe 5 % above US dollar, considering the resources of Canada. These resources are vital to the USofA economy, yet Canada is now selling at a discount into the USofA market. Likely, has everything to do with the policy of those multinational corporations such as Central Banks EH!.

Watched CNN headline this AM on the wet coast they didn't seem

to mention the Japan drop overnight. Omission? I guess what all

those holders of Mutual funds don't know will hurt them!

Ray

Mr Miller ruminates on "digital" effects in the markets, the move to short term trading and its impact on market volatility, etc. Suggests Tsunami.

I thought his recent writing to be a clear and helpful discussion of the evolution of the "system" to its current state and operation: securities being traded like commodities ( my words ) and the increase in chaotic movement in markets ( see VIX over 1980 to 1997 period comparative chart to DOW price recently posted here ) . The propagation of sentiment driven, short term investment decisions and 'bad' choices at light speed. This has help to sharpen my perception of the current markets as truly different from pre 1985 era.

Hence the use of increased effectiveness ( for now ) in use of "Futures" as a means of manipulating markets by intimidation. Prior to 1985 or so ( widespread use of computer technology which inables very short term trading focus ) "futures" on equities were not considered an important part of the trading environment. Now the markets are hypersensitized to their movement. In the current millue these commodity vehicles are exerting a profound and disproportional effect on market psychology.

This entire system is literally a collective neuro-structure which has learning features, feedback loops and the like. There are four states which this structure can express: steady state ( linear ) , periodic state ( cyclical ) , chaotic state ( fractal ) and random state ( chance ) . The combination of these states and their relative influence describe the activity of the market.

Three different levels in chaotic systems apply: sub-critical level ( each action results in less than a proportional effect - adding to the pile one grain at a time, pile accumulates ) , critical level ( where each action results in a proprtional effect - each grain added causes the pile to 'slip' by one grain, expanding the base of the pile ) and super-critical ( where an accumulated stress is released as an avalanche by the addition of one last grain ) .

The chaotic state is gaining in predominance as volatility is increasing. Typically this activity will destroy the ability to predict its next level of value and so destroy the ability of those who trade to make profits from prediction. This is important to recognize because it means that those who are most exposed to derivatives markets are most vulnerable to failure in this new environment.

Predictive systems by their nature thrive in predictable environments. The irony is that these very systems themselves are driving this system into chaotic behavior which will result in the failure of the self same predictive models and those who depend upon them for success. The theme "Vengence of Nature" comes to mind here.

IMHO the very make-up of this system and the behavior of those who make up its constituency will inevitably produce a crash scenerio. It doesn't matter what "supports" they use. It will only tend to build this pile higher to be destroyed by a larger avalanche later. The system will "learn" the new techniques and so these new techniques will become less effective and simply be absorbed into the structure. The next avalanche will be uncontrollable by the use of derivatives sice they will have been 'absorbed' and become part of the problem of the 'to high pile'.

Avalanche or Tsunami, eother way if you are in the market you are TOAST.

Go PM's! Go Gold!! Go Silver!!!

Ladies Gents - I give you Karlito !!

Internationally acclaimed newsletter editor, James Dines, shares his LATEST ON GOLD. Additionally, he calls attention to two of his favorite precious metals stocks: Agnico-Eagle and Stillwater Mining - both are hot-wired to their charts, just CLICK the name. It is also obvious analyst Dines cottons to silver:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines120997.html

That is an acute observation! Great insight; but, you are not making me feel one bit better my friend! ( grin )

!!!!!!!!!!!!

Werner, mon ami, how are things at the "Grande Place"? What's the view of the Belgian "common man" on gold? How do they feel that the central bank sold off part of the national heritage/treasure trove?

For Tolerant - You have a really MEAN streak - I like that about you.

I just got kicked out of the Paarl Branch of Hells Angels for being

too nasty for chrissake - That plus I couldnt ride a motorcycle.

For Werner - Edith didnt LOOK young. You know she was Marcel Cerdans

girl friend. He lost the Title to Robert De Niro pretending to be

Jake ( raging bull ) La Motta. One of the top films IMHO-

Hey when I said that the gold/silver ratio has fallen by exactly

a fibo - someone poopooed me - I forgot who it was - but watch that crap.

and watch that gold silver ratio - Gold MAY start moving in the other

direction from silver - once a fibo always a fibo.

IMHO unless the media can containerize data ( put it in a nice neat package which reinforces the feeling that they are intelligent and the purveyers of wisdom ) they probably will not mention it. What use would that be? Their primary purpose is to become your environment. To do that they must present a 'reality' which is more in control and predictably positive than the real reality. They try to provide the counter-point to 'fear, uncertainty and doubt'. Over the past 4 decades they have quite a following built up. Their techniques and culture are very refined. So, no, we will not see any raw information until they can present it in such a way as to reinforce their priestly status ( the new religion whose deity is SELF in all its manifestations ) .

( a ) The Canadian dollar traded at 1.4345
( b ) In USofA dollars at .6971
( c ) A difference of .3029 ( 1.00 less .6971 )
( d ) I do not get IT .4345 less .3029 = .1316 difference
( e ) WHAT will * .1316 * represent????????

Therefore, a USofA dollar purchases a Canadian resource for US 56.55 $'s for every C 100 $. cost

Therefore, a Canadian dollar purchases a USofA resource for C 156.55 $'s for every US 100 $ cost.

I do not get the .6971 Canadian dollar. What is it that I can not understand ???Yes I need help ! Thanks, Take Care.

Thanks 6pak. 12 year low? WOW.

"Stand back!"

*UuuuH!!!*

"Doctor, I think we have a pulse."

Golden eyes a-flutter, then open.

"I think he's make it now."

The US is, according to posters here, creating many millions of new US$
each day, has not yet brought its deficit under control and yet its currency continues to increase in value daily!! The Nikei crashes and yet all the Ammerican exchanges are UP! Should fair valuation of the Canadian$ make any more sense? As the nice people who do the news ( have been told ) to point out to us, a low $Canadian is good for trade - helps us get rid of the nasty current account deficit - albeit at a considerable "Exchange premium" for the Canadian. Maybe Goldman Sachs has
plans for US, too

Us inverse function to do this. 1 divided by US$ = # CAN$ per US$. 1 divided by CAN$ = # US$ per CAN$. 1 / .6149 = 1.6263 CAN$ per US$.

Damn frustrating when a person can't access the Kitco 24-hour charts. Been trying all morning. Is anyone able to get these charts?

Although I haven't yet received my daily e-mail with the latest currency info, I did check out the currency the hard way, country by country. I was surprised and disappointed to find that the weighted basket of currencies of gold buyers significantly weakened over the week-end, giving back most of the gains it made last week. In fact the reversal was so sharp that it kept the currency from breaking out of the steep downward channel it currently is in. This does not bode well for gold. I have taken action accordingly. Be warned.

TO 6pak. Take CDN $ and divide by 1.4345. 1/1.4345 = $0.69US.
What you must do is for every cdn $ how much can I get in US $

ANYONE: Pray tell, what is a "fibo?"

TO Allen; Close but no cigar. just kidding. You must have a typo.

Un hasard a donn  l'homme l'intelligence. Il en a fait usage : il a invent la btise

In forex, think in terms of ratios, not differences.

ARRRRRRRRRGGGGHHHHHHHH~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Hey John Disney, I am not taking a cheap shot at Intolerant when I suggest he check out the Betty Ford Clinic. Alcoholism is a serious illness and poor Intolerant is showing all of the signs of that terrible disease. Far from a cheap shot, I am offering him the only real option he has for redemption and cure from his illness.

December 22, 1997
Volvo buys Canada's Nova Bus

STOCKHOLM, Dec 22 ( Reuters ) - Vehicle maker AB Volvo said on Monday it had bought North American bus maker Nova Bus for approximately 50 million Canadian dollars or 275 million crowns.

Nova Bus is the biggest maker of city buses in the United States and Canada. The company had annual turnover of 460 million Canadian dollars in 1996 on sales of 1,360 buses.The acquisition was carried out through Prevost Car Incorporated, a subsidiary of Volvo Buses AB. Prevost is owned by Volvo and Britain's Henlys Group .

The acquisition needs approval from regulators in the U.S. and Canada, Volvo said.

Allen: My thought is this. When the pile exceeds super critical, height of pile no longer be valid. Instead, it will be diameter of the base. ( Pounce on Asia ) . And from there we can build an even bigger pile. In my nievety I find it difficult to believe anyone could do this by design, so it is probably true.


I love reading your stuff. Have you read "The Art of War"?

To Ted;
Have you ever heard of this ??? CONTRACTOR.

you kid me brother Vronsky - one fibonacci - ie O.618 or 1.618

however you want to look at it. Ratio started to fall from about 76.3

and then made a recent low of 47.1 -- ( 76.3 ) / ( 47.1 ) = 1.618 ish,

and presto chango ( 47.1 ) /76.3 = 0.618 ish - voila We have the perfect

golden ratio of MISTAH FIBONACCI - May be complete bull sh*t - but I

kinda like it.

With gold up today, and most gold stocks up, its interesting to see Homestead taking a beating.... Could that be the price a gold miner has to pay if they are going to lead the process of consolidation?

For Karlito - Tolerant is fine. Eating your liver in public sounds quite reasonable to me.

Its you Im worried about - Why are you here in the first place.??

What are your motives ??? You wont tell me will you, you little

devil, you.

TO Vronsky;
Known for millennia by scientists, naturalists and mathematicians, the sequence of numbers 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and so on to infinity is known today as the Fibonacci sequence. The sum of any two
adjacent numbers in this sequence forms the next higher number in the sequence, viz., 1 plus 1 equals 2, 1 plus 2 equals 3, 2 plus 3 equals 5, 3 plus 5 equals 8, and so on to infinity. The ratio of any two consecutive numbers in the sequence approximates 1.618, or its inverse, .618, after the first several numbers. Refer to Figure 24 for a complete
ratio table interlocking all Fibonacci numbers from 1 to 144.

1.618 ( or .618 ) is known as the Golden Ratio or Golden Mean. Nature uses
the Golden Ratio in its most intimate building blocks and in its most advanced patterns, in forms as minuscule as atomic structure and DNA molecules to those as large as planetary orbits and galaxies. It
is involved in such diverse phenomena as quasi crystal arrangements,
planetary distances and periods, reflections of light beams on glass, the brain and nervous system, musical arrangement, and the structures of plants and animals. Science is rapidly discovering that there is indeed a basic proportional principle of nature. The stock market has the very same mathematical base as do these natural phenomena.
At every degree of stock market activity, a bull market subdivides into five waves and a bear market subdivides into three waves, giving us the 5-3 relationship that is the mathematical basis of the Elliott Wave Principle. We can generate the complete Fibonacci sequence by using
Elliott's concept of the progression of the market. If we start with the simplest expression of the concept of a bear swing, we get one straight line decline. A bull swing, in its simplest form, is one straight line advance. A complete cycle is two lines. In the next degree of complexity, the corresponding numbers are 3, 5 and 8. As illustrated in Figure 25,
this sequence can be taken to infinity.

W O W ! !

Now would you please do the same for Moslers ( and the Feds ) Operating System, i.e. Soft Currency Economics,
Could/would you please provide a pin to pierce this bubble?
In the nonlinear world, where is the reformation point of the dollar herd?
signed, confused--and probably despondent ( too confused to be sure )

See Vronsky --if you tune in here there is no end --or beginning--to what you might learn.

27. "Fire Prevention" by Janet Reno

26. "How to make a Woman Feel Special" by Marv Albert

25. "My Plan To Find The Real Killers" by OJ Simpson

24. "To All The Men I've Loved Before" by Ellen DeGeneres

23. "The Book of Virtues" by Dean Rains

22. The Difference between Reality and Dilbert

21. Human Rights Advances in China

20. "Things I Wouldn't Do for Money" by Dennis Rodman

19. Al Gore: The Wild Years

18. Amelia Earhart's Guide to the Pacific Ocean

17. America's Most Popular Lawyers

16. Career Opportunities for Liberal Arts Majors

15. Detroit - A Travel Guide

14. Different Ways to Spell "Bob"

13. Dr. Kevorkian's Collection of Motivational Speeches

12. Easy UNIX

11. Ethiopian Tips on World Dominance

10. Everything Men Know About Women

9. Everything Women Know About Men

8. French Hospitality

7. George Foreman's Big Book of Baby Names

6. "How to Sustain a Musical Career" by Art Garfunkel

5. Mike Tyson's Guide to Dating Etiquette

4. One Hundred and One Spotted Owl Recipes by the EPA

3. Staple Your Way to Success

2. The Amish Phone Directory

1. The Engineer's Guide to Fashion

0. The DOW Above 8,000

Don't know the book. Though once was a cold warrior. ( Brrrrr ) . RE: pile and base. Yes. Its not premediated. Or rather all premediations tend to it anyway. If you play dirty then you get dirty, et al. Book of Proverbs says "A man who sets a snare will himself be ensnared by his own snare." So it seems that if we play fair and prudent then we will be prospered, but if we play foolishly we will get 'wiped out'. How P-r-o-f-o-u-n-d!

The trick is to recognize an 'avalanche waiting to happen' which to my mind equates to 'foolishness is reigning in men's minds'. Doesn't then matter how big the pile, etc. Just that it is and will be. PM's no different in this regard. Watch the crowd's behaviour and watch OUT for the crowds behaviour! ( regardless of venue )

Date: Sun Dec 21 1997 17:21
SDRer__A ( A. Goose, LOOK WHAT DONALD FOUND!!!!!! ) ID#288157:
First, glad you arrived safely! Surprised you're not on the slopes...but Glad


Great find, the doollar is definitely heading for major problems. The talking heads are looking particularly stressed today.

The 'bubbled' system is its own 'pin'. Which is truly weird and awesome. As per this see post to sweat-ster prior to this one to you. I suppose it would be nice to know when and by what means. In a sense that would give one the temptation to play 'god' by graciously providing the 'boot' in the right place at the right time. Re: being overwhelmed, try to step back from it a bit. Its there. Knowing not to get run over by a truck is the first step. Knowing, intuitively, when its safe to play in the street is the next. It is intrinsicly hazardous to be alive, but we manage pretty well. Hope you can know the safety zone for yourself; a place where nerves can be soothed.

Thanks: Carl - Mikey - Beamer - Allen ( USA ) , and the best of the season to all. Take Care.

Disney & Mikey: I humbly apologize for putting you the work of typing about the Fibonacci Wave Theory. It just never occurred to me that the theory had lost so much credibility over the 20 years I have been reading about to the point its founder has been relegated to lower case, and losing 60% of the letters to name to boot. BTW, I believe that "leo" was the architect of the Leaning Tower of Pisa -- as he was born there and was known throughout Europe as LEONARDO OF PISA.

In any case, he is probably highly pissed off about the mutilation of his elegant and prestigious name ( :- ) )

I guess we all know now that however valuable a service Bart provides, it cannot be counted on ( in it's current state ) when there is high traffic for the gold prices. Questions:

( 1 ) Does anyone have the info normally posted in the frames, re:gold & silver? Can you please post, with time?

( 2 ) Is there a Yahoo ticker symbol which can give that price, even if delayed?

( 3 ) Other sites which are not buried?

Thanks in advance. Contemplating some minor physical buys, can't get any info.

John, Karlitto is just here to try and agrivate Gold-bugs while the noble metal is down ( he never has anything positive to say ) .
Im sure he will disappear faster than Clinton into a whorehouse, once Gold begins its spectacular recovery......

Hate to admit it, but kudos must go to permabears Andy Smith and Ted Arnold for their superb gold calls these last 2 years. Let's face it -- they have a much better handle on CB thinking than most on this site.

Kudos must also be given to the speculative shorts. They have been right all the way down and the commercials have been dead wrong. This is the opposite of the way it's supposed to work, but times do change.

That said, I do think Smith, Arnold, and the gold shorts will remain bearish too long and give back some of their profits when the yellow turns. But they will still be way ahead of the longs.

Y2KBug_A: COMEX GOLD PRICES & MORE: Major world financial centers: New
York, London, Singapore, Tokyo, etc etc:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

Obvious but troubling. When stocks tanked in Oct. 87 the XAU tanked with it from 150 to 90 ( -40% ) . Gold then went from $480.00 in Dec. 87 to $330.00 in Feb 93 ( -31% ) and XAU went from 150 to 70 ( -53% ) in the same period. Gold did not start its decline until after the Oct. 87 XAU crash.

I believe the stock market will have a sharp one week correction of 10-15% very soon and Bullion is within a $30 of a bottom. I am buying Bullion Coins in 100 lots and Jun 99 puts $30 lower than the price of the coins for cheap insurance. I am looking at Scudder Gold fund SCGDX priced at $7.33 from around $18 in May of 96 ( -59% ) . What happens to gold stocks if the DJIA drops 10% in one day or 20% in a week? XAU down another 40% ?

Dont let it worry you Brother Vronsky - I call him fibo

he calls me diz.

Puetz: You would gain credibility if your forecasts were less extreme. By making off the wall projections of a Dow drop to 2000 in a few weeks, you are guaranteeing that most investors will view you as part of the lunatic fringe. Let's face -- if the Asian debacle cannot crash the U.S. markets what will?


I too am bearish, but in a more conventional way. Like Gene Inger and Barton Biggs I envision the market working its way to to the Dow 6000 area over a number of months as earnings concerns escalate. And the market will take two steps forward for every three steps back during this slide. To keep hope alive and keep the suckers from selling until prices are way down.

A bear market yes! A super crash no!

http://www.bullion.org.za/prices.htm I notice that Kitco's quote server is down today.

The NIKKEI has plunged nearly 10% during the last two trading days, reflecting insurmountable domestic economic and financial difficulties, all exacerbated by the all-encompassing and relentless Domino Effect contagion of Southeast ASIA. TO save their financial hides ALL ASIA will desperately seek refuge in GOLD per centuries long tradition.

The ORACLE of the Orient long absent from our website has returned with a vengeance in his scathing rebuttal of Central Bank spewing that gold is dead, that gold is no longer a hedge against economic and currency chaos, etc. etc. His succinct and extremely well-documented opinion concludes that Central Bank braying is RUBBISH, RUBBISH AND MORE RUBBISH.

The ORACLE proves beyond a shadow of doubt that the only defense southeast Asians had... AND WILL HAVE - against the on-going currency chaos, stock market turmoil and the regions crumbling bank system is to invest in GOLD. The staunchest and most fanatical anti-GOLDBUGS are obliged to concede to the irrefutable evidence that GOLD is the ONLY SAFE HARBOR vis--vis the looming and devastating Domino Effect engulfing the area:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle121597.html

Lurker 77: Gold and the XAU are MUCH cheaper both absolutely and relative to financial assets than they were in late 1987. Gold was around $450 then; it now hovers around $290. The Dow gold ratio was about 6 at the time of the 1987 crash. It now stands at 28. Risk/reward ratios very different today.

Puetz, you should learn from OldGold and Karlito. They're trying to help you man! Karlito is totally right when he says you're currently the best contrary market indicator in print. As you well know, I've made many excellent plays here, announced IN ADVANCE, and quite profitable, just by doing the opposite of what you say. Remember the "Full Moon crash"??!!!
( That was a SWEET gain by going long that week Puetz... )

Howveer, OldGold, quite frankly, I don't think Puetz is serious or sincere in his predictions. I think he's carved out a nice little niche for himself getting quoted in Barrons and all, as the "Superbear" extremist. You know how the media loves the extreme. After all, Puetz is in the Newsletter Biz., not the trading Biz. I'll bet Puetz secretly has been going long the DOW for years!

Y2Kbug,

You can get up to date gold prices, as well as other prices: currencies, commodities, and so on, at http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/future.html

MetalGOLD 100 OZ FUTR
Feb9812:21293.10+2.00292.70293.70
292.10291.10SILVER FUTURE
Mar9812:086.03-.026.076.07
6.016.05

Still holding those S&P calls? By the way oh wise one, what % of cos. ( gold or otherwise ) see their stock price appreciate directly following an acquisition announcement?

http://www.bullion.org.za/prices.htm

If "All Asia is turning to Gold" in this time of crises, why is it that precisely the opposite is being reported by the Gold market traders? Namely, Southeast Asians are liquidating their Gold as their countries currency devaluations put them into hard times?

Love your site but let's get our facts straight shall we? Most Asian country's Gold consumption is DROPPING on this crises, not the other way around.

( PS to GoldBugs...wishful thinking, tortured reasoning, convoluted reporting, does not a bull market make... )

December 22, 1997
Ministers sign accord to build Eurofighter

BONN ( Reuters ) - Germany, Britain, Italy and Spain Monday signed an agreement to build the Eurofighter warplane, Europe's most expensive and controversial cross-border military project, at a cost of up to $70 billion.

Defense ministers from the four powers signed two memoranda of understanding clearing the way for production of 620 aircraft, or about $113 million each based on the projected total cost. "This is the best plane at the right price," British Defense Minister George Robertson told a news conference after the signing ceremony at the German Defense Ministry in Bonn.

Robertson, who inherited the project from the former right-wing Conservative government, rejected criticism that the Eurofighter 2000 was an obsolete concept of the Cold War. "This is one of the most modern aircraft that can be produced," he said, adding that the Eurofighter had "the versatility to deal with the varied challenges we are going to face in the next 20 years."

German Defense Minister Volker Ruehe said the agreement would help Europe's air and space industry to compete with that of the United States.

"This will make thousands of jobs safe," he added. The project is expected to employ about 100,000 people directly and indirectly in Europe at the height of production.

Although the Cold War threat had disappeared, conflicts in the Gulf and the former Yugoslavia showed the need for high-performance aircraft "as an insurance policy for uncertain years ahead," Robertson said.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/AEROSPACE-EUROFIGHTER.html

LURKER 777

There is some inconsistency in comparing this year to 1987. For one, gold was still considered a safe haven at that time compared to the US dollar. At the beginning of the Oct 87 crash, gold jumped for two days until Greenspan announced that the Fed would provide market liquidity and thereby removed fear of a dollar collapse. Gold managed to peak in Dec 87 at 501 and has been sliding since. ( It was a very profitable climb from Jan 85 ( $285 ) to Dec 87 ( $501 ) often forgotten when analyzing gold action in the last 15 years. )

Gold stocks and funds took a crash of 30-60% because they were near their peaks when the crash occurred. Today they have already taken their 50% and more decline. The Dow is just late.

If the stock market dropped 10-20%, I would expect gold stocks to dip some, primarily those in the S&P index which would be sold to raise cash by the index funds. However, I would consider that the bottom and would be in 100%. I consider Scudder Gold to be relative conservative.

Hey Prof, how ya doin? Don't I get any lectures on my typos, spelling, attitude, and academic credentials today? I feel deprived! BTW after your post of yesterday, ( which I agree with in principal, I'm now REALLY baffled by your taking me to task for my beliefs in the rational, the absolute, the scientific method, the analytical reasoning tool for problem resolution, the complete disdain for the "Politically correct" ( and totally hypocritical phoniness ) of the current existentialism craze.

Gimme e o' them big vocabulary words Prof, all strung together in poetic prose. Love dem Tomes, I truly do!

Your death is my happiness.

LGB: Extreme predictions can indeed attract new subscibers. But these subscribers will not renew if they lose money or fail to participate in a roaring bull that is making their neighbors rich.

Your wrong about the Betty Ford thing, I think he needs the DSM a a good practitioner/expert in the field who knows how to use it effectively. Ahhh. but at least we get to view the typical mentality and credibility of the rue Goldbug.

Isn't it ironic that comments like Intolerants are never blasted by other Goldbugs, yet much MILDER comments from the "Unwashed unbelievers" of Yellow metal diety, are attacked viciously for the slightest crticial commentary?

Why this should be a surprise to anyone is beyond me. The price of gold in local currencies has soared. When the price of any commodity goes up the quantity demanded almost always drops.

Secondly, unless you want to argue that gold is an inferior gold, meaning that you consume less of it when your income goes up and more of it when your income goes down, then the drop in Asian incomes also must result in a drop in the quantity of gold demanded.

The crisis in Asia, far from bringing about the great bull rally in gold is one of the reasons gold is in the dumpster. Price and income effects are driving the quantity of the metal down. All of you gold bugs who are dumping on the IMF bailouts are also dumping on the price of gold!

OLD GOLD thank you for your comments. If you believed the stock market would have a one week correction of 10%+ in the near future would it be prudent to wait on the purchase of Mining stocks?

- FRB Top-Dog Shares His Candid Opinion On Gold

- Greenspan: Still Going for the Gold

Once at the following website, scroll down until you see Mr. Greenspans bright-eyes peeping out at you, then CLICK him... where ever you like. IF you do NOT see Greenspans photo, RELOAD THE PAGE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com

I'm not here to agitate.... I came here originally to see if gold might be a good investment and stayed both for the great contrarian advice that I have gotten from the likes of Puetz and the death threats I get from Intolerant.

I know gold will soar in value when this crowd finally throws in the towel and turns bearish. When that day does come, you can count on me to be in there buying gold, hand over fist, just like I bought sp calls on Puetz great call for a 2000 Dow.

6pak - Is this really you? I have you on my list of terminal victims of the gold bear, via your posting back in November. Did you just go into hibernation?

Hey Vrononsky, that Greenspan quote is almost as old as the picture you have of Alan.... you ought to look into what he has been saying in say the past year or two. At the very least, you ought to get a newer picture.

Guns And Gold For The EU.Achtung Baby!!

I love you too man.... peace, love and brotherhood.... and seriously, get some help, I dont know what LGB is refering to but you gotta learn to deal with that anger thing a bit better. If you let a buffoon like myself get under your skin on something so frivilous as a chat site, then you can conclude almost immediately, that you need help.... no need to respond, I gotta plane to catch.... bye for now....

love and kisses

Karlito

The yen is down and gold is up. This is good for gold. Wait till the yen goes down and then watch gold go up more. The dollar will go down.

I had posted the last couple of weeks about a trend between the
price movement of the US$ and Gold i.e when the US$ went up
vs Yen or Mark Gold mirrored said movement down vs US$. For
the last two trading days I notice that this trend seems to have ever so slightly changed with the US$ up near 130.40 yen about 1 yen and
also slightly up vs the Mark, and GOLD up two days now vs US$.
If this trend continues, we could have seen the bottom for GOLD,
since it would IMHO indicate that GOLD has ever so slightly regained
it's role as "safety" factor vs world currency turmoil along with
US Bonds for now. As I posted some time ago the BIG moves
in Gold I believe should come when the US$ and Bonds are no
longer viewed as a flight to "quality".

LGB..

The reports I saw on Asian gold is that Koreans have joined the sellers because they need the cash now to pay bills. Their currency has fallen over 50% and therefore holders of gold were the only ones who had something worthwhile to sell and validated the reason to own gold.

The Japanese on the other hand have been buying more than average lately because the Nikkei has been going down and not so much the yen. In other words, in yen, gold is still at a low enough price to buy as an investment and safe haven, and they are doing such. I consider this an indication that the Japanese citizenry may be getting a bit doubtful about owning dollars as a safe haven. If the yen falls past 130 yen/$, and the Japanese economy collapses like Korea, they too will be selling. But not yet. Meanwhile, they are buying.

Of course a Japanese crash would mean that the dollar would be croaking soon thereafter and it would be a good time to buy gold on this side of the Pacific.

If the Japanese economy falls, I wouldn't be caught anywhere near the Dow. Best of luck to you.

If by chance, the Chinese, who are generally big buyers of gold in times of crisis, should have their version of the Asian virus, it would signal to me the bottom of gold as they would be buyers of much more magnitude than anyone else in Asia.

My interpretation of the facts tells me that the probable situations in the near future mostly point toward a rising gold price in dollars. No ideology here, just investing in what I think will happen.

Monday December 22, 12:58 pm Eastern Time

Homestake looks for deal to restore luster

By Robin Sidel

NEW YORK, Dec 22 ( Reuters ) - Badly hurt by poor industry fundamentals and rebuffed in a takeover attempt earlier this year, Homestake
Mining Co is hoping its planned purchase of a big Australian gold producer will help restore its luster.

But Wall Street showed apprehension about the $640 million transaction on Monday, as shares of the San Francisco-based company fell on
views that a purchase of Plutonic Resources Ltd ( PLU.AX ) may not provide the much-needed boost.

The proposed stock deal, announced late Sunday, would double Homestake's Australian output next year.

In a telephone interview Sunday night, Homestake Chief Executive Officer Jack Thompson compared the Plutonic deal to Homestake's 1992
purchase of International Corona, which also took place amid a widespread industry decline.

``Corona helped us through the '90s. We hope that Plutonic will help us through the next decade,'' he said.

Gold prices this year have fallen to an 18-year low, sending gold stocks down sharply with them. Although demand is near record levels, the
bearish sentiment is linked to the world's central banks, which have been selling or lending their gold in increasing quantities.

Thompson said the Plutonic deal is being driven by the prospect for additional discoveries in the gold-rich region of western Australia.

The proposed transaction ``makes us a larger, stronger lower-cost company able to survive the current low gold prices. It enhances our future
by the acquisition of a wonderful land position in one of the world's great gold provinces,'' Thompson said.

But shares of Homestake fell 6/16 to 9-9/16 on views that the benefits may not be as certain as suggested.

``The problem in Australia is that the reserves tend to be short-lived. The real issue is whether Homestake is onto something about real
reserves down there,'' said one investor who did not want to be identified, but is knowledgeable about the industry.

In the late Sunday interview, Thompson noted that the industry had been skeptical about the International Corona deal in 1992, but the
transaction has been crucial for Homestake.

``People at the time thought that we were crazy. Those assets today are the strength of Homestake. It is that kind of result that we're hoping
for with this transaction,'' he said.

Another Wall Street source who did not want to be identified said it appears Homestake overpaid for Plutonic and is too dependent on stronger
gold prices to get the projected benefits.

``I think they had far more negotiating leverage than this price shows. It harkens back to the days of growth for growth's sake,'' he said.

The Plutonic transaction is Homestake's first big deal since Internawtional Coronia. Earlier this year, Homestake lost out in its effort to
acquire Santa Fe Pacific Gold Corp, which instead was bought by Newmont Mining Cor

According to an analyst who spoke
yesterday in a financial news
group discussion:

Japan is set to sell dollars in
massive amounts on Christmas day
while our markets are closed in
order to strengthen the Yen.

I have to assume that these "dollars"
came from the sale of US Treasuries.

Japan was also reported to have
bought 28 Billion dollars worth of
gold during the past reporting period.

IF this is true, we should see a good
move up for gold when US markets open
after Christmas.

LOTS OF GOLD IN THE WORLDS OCEANS

Yes, I do remember when Howard Hughes
was set to mine the worlds oceans for
gold many years ago. It didn't get off
the ground. But, perhaps this time
it will!!!!!

Gold
Underwater

Hot Springs in the
Bismark Sea

NEW YORK - For the
first time, miners have
laid claim to rich deposits
of gold, silver and copper
in the deep sea,
foreshadowing a possible
rush to open the oceans
for metals and a possible
fight with
conservationists over
exploitation of the sea's
dark recesses.

The sea is considered a
last frontier for the
competing forces of
industrial development
and nature preservation.

The mining claim was
made by Australians in
the territorial waters of
Papua New Guinea and
covers an area of nearly
2,000 square miles.

About a mile down, the
sites boil with volcanic
hot springs whose rocky
outcroppings are laced
with iron, zinc, copper,
silver and gold in high
concentrations.

The miners say early
assays show the claim
holds the richest volcanic
deposits ever found at
sea and estimate their
likely value at billions of
dollars - enough, they
say, to justify the
considerable cost of
extracting them.

Sample ores contain up
to 26 percent zinc, 15
percent copper, seven
ounces ( 198 grams ) of
silver to the ton and
about one ounce of gold -
all unusually high grades
by terrestrial standards.

''If you found this deposit
on dry land, you'd call
these bonanza figures,''
said Ray Binns, a
scientist at the Australian
Commonwealth Scientific
Industrial Research
Organization who helped
discover the zone.

The richness of the
deposits, experts say,
means that less
processing on land will be
needed to separate out
the different metals and
turn them into ingots.

The hot deposits are
different from the icy
manganese nodules that
litter the global seabed
and first prompted
dreams of mining the
deep. In the 1970s, rich
and poor countries
clashed over visions of
the potential wealth
represented by the
nodules and eventually
agreed to a division
spelled out in the Law of
the Sea Treaty.

But the nodules, rich in
manganese, cobalt and
nickel, were never mined.
Land supplies of these
metals turned out to be
more plentiful and
accessible.

The new volcanic glitter
was discovered around
the globe in the 1980s
after the nodules came to
light.

It is much richer in
precious metals and
tends to lie closer to the
sea's surface, easing the
recovery job. In the last
decade, hundreds of
scientific expeditions
have mapped such
deposits. But no one has
yet mined the rocky
outcroppings, which can
grow many stories high.

Now Nautilus Minerals
Corp., a Papua New
Guinea company run by
Australian businessmen
and working with
Australian government
scientists, has been
granted title to 1,974
square miles of the
Bismarck Sea in the
territorial waters of
Papua New Guinea, a
tropical archipelago of
the South Pacific.

If the region's deep hot
springs turn out to be as
rich and widespread as
surveys and samples
indicate, the company
plans to start taking
preliminary hauls of
10,000 tons ( 9,700 metric
tons ) each in the next two
years and large
commercial loads in the
next five years.

''I see hundreds of
millions of dollars worth
of metal in the immediate
future,'' said Julian
Malnic, the company's
chief executive, who
works in Sydney, where
Nautilus has an
Australian office. ''And it
won't take us very long
to get into the billions.''

A key question is
whether potential
earnings can cover the
high cost of raising the
metals.

The miners point to the
general opening of the
deep by advanced
technologies - including
robots, sonars and giant
claws lowered from ships
- and say that
profitability for investors
is likely.

Deep mining, they add,
will eventually go global.

''It's inevitable,'' said A.
Geoff Loudon, the
company's chairman, who
lives in London.

''This is an industry
that's going to turn
conventional on-shore
mining into a dinosaur,''
he asserted in an
interview. ''The world's
big companies are going
to get with this or
disappear.''

He noted how the
petroleum industry
started on land and
increasingly is moving
into deep waters,
spawning tons of new
gear that seabed miners
can exploit.

Mr. Loudon represents
substantial money and
expertise. In 1983, he
organized a team that
probed the Lihir isle of
Papua New Guinea and
discovered a rich gold
deposit. Today, an
open-pit mine on Lihir is
fast becoming one of the
world's top gold
producers.

Analysts unconnected to
the New Guinea venture
are divided on its merits,
with ocean experts
tending to be excited and
environmentalists wary.

Ecologists see the claim
as an assault on a poorly
explored region of
natural wonders and
some argue that
protective steps are vital,
while others would ban
sea mining. The deep
volcanic hot springs
fascinate many biologists
because they teem with
blind shrimp, giant tube
worms and other
unfamiliar creatures,
sometimes in densities
that rival the life in rain
forests.

The hot springs are also
important in evolutionary
studies and are
increasingly seen as the
possible birthplace of all
life on Earth.

''Great care should be
taken,'' Dr. Sylvia Earle,
a prominent marine
biologist and former chief
scientist of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, said of
the New Guinea venture.

''Some significant area
should be designated as a
no-take zone, so you
have insight into the
ways things were before
the mining began.''

International Herald
Tribune, Dec. 22, 1997

"DSM" is the manual psychiatrists use which catalogues and defines various psychiatric mental illnesses.

Lurker 77: I agree with LARRYA's comments on your question.

Gold acting quite well considering the weak yen. But we have seen such action before in this bear. We need to see the yellow PERSISTENTLY ignore bad news to be reasonably confident about a final bottom.

DJ:

I very much liked your 'world price' gold charts. Here's my take.

In the short run the demand for gold is much more elastic with respect to price than is it with respect supply. As you have probably intuited correctly the demand curve for gold is more properly priced in local currencies rather than US dollars. Since gold is a luxury item or a savings vehicle its purchase will generally occur when there is sufficient excess liquidity in the local economy and the price is 'low' in that currency. If we make the simplifying assumption that the price / demand curve is linear and of the same slope ( -1 ) in all countries then a chart which showed the weighted world price of gold would be a fairly good proxy for gold demand. This is the chart which you show which has basically remained constant over the last 2 years.

I believe that you are also correct in stating that there need be no conspiracy to explain the current 'low' price of gold. It is only 'low' in terms of the US dollar, the strongest currency in the world. It is also silly to believe that gold flows determine currency values as per your number 3.

Two points going forward.

While supply is fairly static over the short term there are obviously things which can change that. Certainly central banks can wreak havoc in any direction they choose and mine production can suffer if the price of gold declines precipitously. The CB question is always open, but there is little question that the decline in gold price in the producing countries is going to cause supply declines.

The second point concerns the demand curve for gold. As we approach extremes, the demand curve for gold is nonlinear. On the up side in price ( downside of demand ) the 'error' due to nonlinearity will be fairly small and is in any event constrained because demand can not fall below zero. On the down side in price ( upside in demand ) the error can be increasingly large. If you cut the price of gold in half you may get a much greater than 2x increase in demand, especially if its in a country where the economy is otherwise fine. I believe we are seeing this in the US where there is much annecdotal evidence of significantly increased physical demand at these levels.

It seems clear from your charts that the price of gold in US dollars has been much more dependant upon the general level of US dollars than any concerns relating directly to the supply / demand situtation for gold.
With the US current account deficit so high and likely to increase due to trade imbalances, plus the ramping up of money supply, the dollar doesn't appear destined for glory. In addition the Europeans will do all they can to attempt to get the EMU to 'reserve' status. This program has probably included a prelaunch lowering of value so that when the US dollar value of the EMU is set, it will be easy for them to show small increases in EMU vs US in the years to come. This would aid in their future marketing efforts to get the rest of the world to hold EMU's instead of bucks.

Keep up the good work.

LGB: Your dozens of posts telling us that the Asians are selling gold have been answered dozens of times most recently by larryn_a. If the Asians are selling gold it's because of bad paper investments; e.g., stocks and currencies. Gold apparently was a better investment in those countries. Even a moron such as I can grasp this concept.

If you want to be quoted in Barrons or have your own newsletter ( like Puetz, the one you envy ) , you will need to be more original and less redundant.

DJ:

Second line is confusing. Point was that demand is more sensitive to price in the short run than is supply. Mines don't open and close every day, but buyers tend to buy in currency unit amounts ( Hey mack, gimme a 1000 bucks worth of the stuff ) so higher prices translate instantaneously into lower demand.

Why is it that when you review a post before you post it you never catch the things that you catch until after it is posted. Maybe someone at Kitco rearranges your words a bit to make you look silly. This would explain the behavior of some of the participants.

Thank you for indulging a novice goldbug in search of wisdom. Your insight is welcome and has been duly noted.

Dave, as a long time lurker on Kitco ( and as a passive comment
maker ) , I am appalled at the lack of tact and reasonablness
of your recent post. Kitco serves as a pleasant, gentlemanly
arena for the dissemination of ideas and news. Posts as angry
as yours are uncalled for. Pleae refrain from doing so in the
future.

This prediction gains tremendous credibility after you read the credentials of its author:

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

If we go back to an earlier section of this paper, we observed that after 1971, when the artificial pressure was lifted from gold prices that prices advanced to a peak of 24 times the old price and settled around approximately 10 times the old price. No two events in any market develop precisely the same, but just as an
exercise, if something similar happens this time, gold prices might peak near $8,400.00, and settle around $3,500.00 an ounce.

The remote possibility that these numbers can be correct, is enough evidence to make it easy to understand why the central bankers and high government officials around the world want to denigrate, denounce, discard, disown and dislike gold, plus keep prices low. It makes one want to take time to consider what the implications of anything remotely resembling this happening might be. The last time gold had been held down artificially for 37 years. This time, so far, it has only been 17, which may lessen the next rise. On the other hand we have asset markets that have reached such lofty levels, where no less an authority than the FED Chairman has described the situation, as long as a year ago, as "Irrational Exuberance". So who can tell? Let's not lose sight, while we are pondering the question, of the trillions and trillions of fiat megabyte dollars, yen, marks, and what have you, that are whizzing around the world electronically every minute of every hour of every day. They have to end up buying something, and it might just be gold one of these days.

Part II of his mind-blowing essay is located at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/jmiller122097.html

KarlitA ( Greenspan quote ) - REF Your comments:
"...that Greenspan quote is almost as old as the picture you have of Alan.... you ought to look into what he has been saying in say the past year or two."

- You obviously did not read the Kitco post which made it abundantly clear to CLICK THE PHOTO OF GREENSPAN for his current views on GOLd.

- I contacted the FRB via email to request an image photo of the Chairman for an article we are doing. This is what they sent. What can I say?

D.A. - I agree, more or less, with everything you say. Although I don't have access to any "real-time" demand info, it seems CB sales and loans have always been sufficient to meet demand. Several things are working in golds favor now. First, supply from producers is definitely dropping, as mines close. Second, with currencies around the world being trashed, it seems that although there has been a flight to US$, no one likes doing it, and they are looking for alternatives. Gold can play this role, on a large and small scale. Finally, if CB's finally stop selling, and cut back on leasing, this will also impact supply. If supply finally drops below demand, the price of gold in the "world" currency will no longer be flat, but will rise. If this is coupled with a weakening of the dollar, we could all go for a ride.

However, no "ifs" and "buts" for me. I continue to watch the trends, and take action accordingly. I was extremely disappointed to see the "world gold currency" weaken again over the week-end. This should take gold back down to $284-285. It is very important to watch tonight's action in Asian currencies.

Its not boring, for sure.

The gold price always remains a constant while paper currency values rotate about it. IMHO it is nearly impossible to put a value on paper as it is manipulated up and down to achieve specific motives. Moves are mostly paper against paper, while the spin doctors attempt to achieve their motives.
In this atmosphere gold can do very little, that is until the masses wake up to what the leaders are constructing for them. Houses on wet clay or unconfined sand.

For Karlito69_M

Whats going on here ?? Watch yourself tolerant - I think it likes you !!

The dollars may be coming from the Fed.

Are you bullish on stocks? If you are, I may slow down my purchases
of the gold you're selling short and get some S&P puts. Let me know, O.K.?

Once in a while the depressed side of my bipolar personality takes control of the keyboard. Your right, my remarks have no place here. Thanks.

DEJ: Last I read from Karlito, he had sold off all of his holdings because he's using Granville as a contrary indicator. Since Granville is calling for Dow 10000 in 1997, I would think he has a lot of Jan. S&P puts.

LGB also sold everything, except his company stock, and is waiting for 6700 Dow.

Camdessuss started the ball rolling with talk about gold sales some years back.
Public sentiment, like clay is easily formed by the opinions of those in important positions, or people in the limelight, such as actor's or other personalities.
Gold just hung in there for the longest time averaging about $385, and these rumors persisted in continium. Then they lowered the boom with, press rumors, gold loans, small sales - it's now past history. Soon the yellow will shine again and paper will find its rightful place.

DJ:

The thing which you call 'World Currency Gold' is computed by taking the local price of gold say GC / DM and multiplying by the price of DM / US and then adjusting for the weights. Since the currencies factor out all you are looking at is GC / US.

Maybe you could do a chart that was computed as follows:

1. Pick a starting date for which you have demand numbers.
2. On that date calculate the price of gold in local currency terms. So that on the startdate you would have a total demand of x tons where x was the sum of the demands in all of the countries.
3. From the starting date to the ending date assume that the slope of the price / demand curve is equal to -1.
4. At the end date look at the price of gold in each country relative to its price at the start date and multiply by the original demand number. For germany suppose that on startdate the demand was 100tons with the price at 500DM / oz. On the end date if the price is 1000 DM/oz then the demand would be 50 tons. Then just add up all the tonnages across all the currencies and plot the demand over time.
5. If you do the calculation every day you can get a running demand total. I thought this was what you did to get the stable line at the top of your chart but now I think not.

Dave it takes a big man to admit he is wrong. Merry Christmas and
have a prosperous new year.
Dennis

tell me why the spot price on Kitco is $7 higher

than the April futures and $4 higher than January?

What does this tell us, if anything?

G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

STRUTH, we actually agreed on something. Must be the Christmas spirit, or is the REAL jd showing through. You devil you!!!!

Aye, Haggis

G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

STRUTH, we actually agreed on something. Must be the Christmas spirit, or is the REAL jd showing through. You devil you!!!!

Aye, Haggis

Here are today's comex inventory figures released after trading:

Gold: Tumbled 59,765 ( ! ) ounces to 483,977

Silver: Plummeted 4,930,622 ( !!! ) ounces to 113,144,134

Prices in Silver could now be difficult to contain and the odds of another powerful leg to the upside are increasing by the hour. March Silver closed above the psychological "600" level for a 3rd trading day in a row and the stock depletion is increasing at an alarming rate. More than 10 million ounces disappeared from the Comex warehouses in less than a week.

Nothing is never "for sure" in the markets but the odds are now strongly on the bull side in Silver which could at minimum give a little boost to Gold.

Feb Gold looks like it wants to go down and test the top of the channel it just came out of. Tomorrow buy Feb Gold at 288.00 use a 2.00 stop, if long from 284.8 keep the stop at break even

Dow/Gold Ratio = 26.86

XAU/Spot Ratio = .246

Silver/Gold Ratio = 48.12

Aussie gold shares up 7% in early trade.

D.A. - Please refer to my Dec. 20th 01:57 for a description of the calculations behind the chart. Rough market share ( demand ) data broken down by country was obtained from the WGC web site. This is used to "weight" the various currencies in the "world gold currency". Daily currency quotes are used to update the charts. No magic. If you have further questions you can reach me at nimsd@aol.com

Which Aussie gold shares in particular? Best Regards.

Gday Nick. Lihir +5.6% Normandy +4.13% Newcrest +3.89% Looks like we
are keepin the very ords alive. cheers

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971221/ibj_hopes_to_issue_y_1.html

- FRB Top-Dog Shares His Candid Opinion On Gold

- Greenspan: Still Going for the Gold

Once at the following website, scroll down until you see Mr. Greenspans bright-eyes peeping out at you, then CLICK him... where ever you like. IF you do NOT see Greenspans photo, RELOAD THE PAGE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com

Are your gold shares up because of the Homestake - Plutonic deal? HM was off 9/16th on NYSE so investors are not too thrilled here.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971222/china_audits_2.html

Your comments are separated into one file per comment at

http://www.acsys.com/~hong/pubfiles/kitco/by-id/

They are also indexed by words but I am in the middle of figuring out
the best way to present the choices to you.

At least, it will be easy to find all listings for Joe Doe via the
above site.

I am interested in your comments of what would be useful to you.
Also, comments as to the response time would be appreciated.

Thanks

ALL the major gold shares up sharply down here. Looks like this Homestake bid to take over Aussie miner Plutonic Resources at a bid 86% over last weeks price has lit a fire under our gold miners. Good onya Homestake!!

Your comments are separated into one file per comment at

http://www.acsys.com/~hong/pubfiles/kitco/by-id/

They are also indexed by words but I am in the middle of figuring out
the best way to present the choices to you.

At least, it will be easy to find all listings for Joe Doe via the
above site.

I am interested in your comments of what would be useful to you.
Also, comments as to the response time would be appreciated.

Thanks

Is the fall in Silver and Gold Comdex Inventory a seasonal thing ???
Be nice to see a yearly plot.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/971222/s_p_rts_korean_ins_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971222/us_treasuries_mixed__1.html

This prediction gains tremendous credibility after you read the credentials of its author:

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

If we go back to an earlier section of this paper, we observed that after 1971, when the artificial pressure was lifted from gold prices that prices advanced to a peak of 24 times the old price and settled around approximately 10 times the old price. No two events in any market develop precisely the same, but just as an
exercise, if something similar happens this time, gold prices might peak near $8,400.00, and settle around $3,500.00 an ounce.

The remote possibility that these numbers can be correct, is enough evidence to make it easy to understand why the central bankers and high government officials around the world want to denigrate, denounce, discard, disown and dislike gold, plus keep prices low. It makes one want to take time to consider what the implications of anything remotely resembling this happening might be. The last time gold had been held down artificially for 37 years. This time, so far, it has only been 17, which may lessen the next rise. On the other hand we have asset markets that have reached such lofty levels, where no less an authority than the FED Chairman has described the situation, as long as a year ago, as "Irrational Exuberance". So who can tell? Let's not lose sight, while we are pondering the question, of the trillions and trillions of fiat megabyte dollars, yen, marks, and what have you, that are whizzing around the world electronically every minute of every hour of every day. They have to end up buying something, and it might just be gold one of these days.

Part II of his mind-blowing essay is located at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/jmiller122097.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971222/mining_mergers_sched_2.html

Arden,
Would you be able to point us to long term Comex gold/silver stock numbers or a plot of them for the last five years?

thanks,
Electro-Spud

Old Gold: You may think DJIA 2000 is unrealistic anytime soon, but as I see it, it's the DJIA that's unrealistic at 7800. Consider these facts:

1 ) Based on a more normal dividend yield of 5%, the DJIA should now be trading at 2727.

2 ) Based on its book-value, the DJIA should be trading at 1414.

3 ) Considering the unprecedented leverage in the market-place, trillions of dollars of debt will not be easily liquidated once the margin-calls come due.

Once the margin calls arrive, the DJIA will not find long-term, value-conscious investors until it sinks to 2000. Liquidating trillions of dollars of stock-market leverage will take place in a matter of a few days time. That's because the all of margin-calls will be issued at about the same time. Liquidating all of this debt at once will created an unbelievable crash -- unbelievable to all but the bears such as me, who understand the danger in our present situation.

Incredible crashes develop from incredible leverage. We are rapidly approaching the day of the crash. Those who do not anticipate it will be left in the cold.

Ok, I know that such a thing is a possibility. But my question is that given the circumstance of hyperinflation of gold prices when will be the best place on the curve to convert the gold into other commodities and into land? I would suspect that there will be a time when gold will go from its present 3 ounce per acre marginal land or 15 ounce per acre of good land to a much more affordable price, like the 1951 price of 35 acres per ounce on the auction block. But will it be early or late or midcycle?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971222/asia_downgrades_high_1.html

I don't receive spot gold quotes, so I don't know if they are in error. The normal premium for distant futures is about a buck a month. The Feb contract closed at 292.70, Apr 294.50, and Jun 296.50. I'm currently showing Feb on overnight Nymex Access at +.40 @ 293.10. Mar silver is currently +.04 @ 6.065. Bonds are +5 and the S&P is unchanged.

KCT

Thank you for the "Monetary Mismanagement...Part II ) by J Miller - a masterpiece! Part I is also excellent.

Read your 18.49 re the yield curve but I am not quite "getting" the significance of the fact that the yield curve is flattening so much. If the difference between the 2 yr. and 30 yr. is only 19 basis points, why would anyone in their right mind buy the 30 yr. Or, is THAT the significance of your point; in other words are you saying that the long term rates MUST rise to reflect the greater risk in the long term paper ? AND, that, of course will flow over into the stockmarket ?

TO ALL:

Holders of gold in Argentina 10
years ago saw gold rise against
their currency to well over
8,000 pesos. They were able to
live well for many years.

Gold bugs in Brazil also saw nice
gains while their felllow citizens
suffered from inflation.

More recently--Holders of gold in
Thailand, Korea, Indonessia etc.
are smiling. Holders of gold in
Russia are very wealthy relative
to those who do not hold gold.

It CAN happen here.

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971222/business/stories/currencies_1.html

Sir! Are you familiar with the work of Franz Pick? A scholar such as yourself should find the following site a treasure trove: http://studium.com/inflate1.htm Here is an excerpt from the site"

"Hungary has suffered what was considered to be the worst inflation in recorded history. In 1941, the Pengoe was valued at 3.46 to the U.S. Dollar. Both during and shortly after World War II, however, the government printed billions of Pengo to offset the tragic results of war on the Hungarian economy. By March 3, 1946, 1 U.S. Dollar was equivalent to 10.3 million Pengoe. In the same year, a new currency unit was issued, Known as the Mil-pengo, which was equivalent to 1,000,000 pengoes. Soon after, the Bil-pengo denomination arrived. What you see here is a note valued at 10,000,000,000,000,000 Pengoe! On the last day of July, the rampant inflation ended with the issuance of the forint, an entirely new unit valued at a rate of one per four hundred million quadrillion pengoes."

"Government is the only institution that can take a valuable commodity like paper, and make it worthless by applying ink."

Ludwig von Mises, Economist

When the short term interest rate exceeds the long term interest rate we have a situation called an "inverted yield curve". This is always a prelude to a bond market disaster.

The reason it creates a disaster is because speculators have borrowed short term, at say 4%, to purchase long term bonds paying, say 7%. They pocket the 3% difference. When the short term rate exceeds the long term rate there is no longer a profit and they are forced to liquidate their long term bonds at any price, causing a failure in the long term bond market and often a failure in the stock market.

223 ( Vronsky: gold $8000? ) : How do I "spend" 40 acres of KANSAS land in Beijing or Brazil or Bahrain, or for that Boston??????

Only GOLD or Chuk Kam has universal convertibility in any "store" in the world. And you do NOT have to speak the other guys language... as all understand the value of the yellow metal....

Did the contract for the Swan's Island land today!!----go team gold~~~~~

Hey Denton - you ever get out to the Traildust? I heard some Aussie copied the whole concept and opened an identical restaurant somewhere in Australia. Apparently, he came in for dinner and they chopped off his tie and hung it on the wall. Fun place!

KCT

The 2 year treasury was paying more than the 3 year today. The difference between the 2 year and the 30 year was only about .25% .An inverted yield curve has always been a sign of a recession.

Got to thinking after my last post and sometimes thinking can be dangerous with me. By how much ( i.e. how many basis points ) does the yield curve have to be inverted before the bond market starts to sell off OR HOW LONG does the inverted yield curve have to be in place before it happens?

Monday December 22, 7:02 pm Eastern Time

Australian stocks open up on U.S. rise, gold

SYDNEY, Dec 23 ( Reuters ) - The Australian share market started Tuesday with strong gains in relatively active pre-holiday trade, helped by Wall Street's rise on Monday and soaring gold stocks.

``It's very bullish, mainly because of the gold stocks. We needed a boost like that, some good merger and aquisition activity,'' said dealer Michael Scichlau of Daiwa Securities.

The gold sector index jumped seven percent, with Plutonic Resources ( PLU.AX ) soaring 58 percent to A$4.42 following Monday's US$640 million takeover offer from U.S. miner Homestake Mining Co ( NYSE:HM - news ) .

-- POSSIBLE LOST DATA --

\000 Most other gold miners also rose sharply on speculation of

further corporate activity. Newcrest Mining ( NCM.AX ) rose six cents to A$1.60 and Normandy Mining ( NDY.AX ) six to A$1.50.

``The premium ( Homestake ) pays for Plutonic makes you wonder what sort of prices would be paid for, let's say, Newcrest,'' Scichlau said, adding most brokers have their own list of other potential takeover targets in the sector.

``The Australian gold stocks, and mining stocks in general, are very undervalued at the moment,'' he said.

Among the big diversified miners, BHP ( BHP.AX ) rose 22 cents to A$13.96 and WMC ( WMC.AX ) eight cents to an even A$5.

Charles,

My goal is to at some point, cash in all my wealth and buy a medium sized farm ( preferrably one which was originally stolen from virtuous and kind native peoples by wicked Anglo-Europeans ) where I can spend the rest of my life oppressing hapless Bovine-American, Porcine-American and Avian-American animal citizens, while writing nasty books and articles defaming the Socialist-Peoples-World-State. To do this I need to know when on the inflation curve will land be the most underpriced relative to gold. Do you or anyone else have a guess???

I read a real estate book years ago that made a good case for pricing land. It said that a fair price, for over 1000 years, was 100 times its monthly rent. Anything under that was a good deal.

Korea is leading the plunge tonight -22.60, -5.71%.
Can't get any indication from Japan, must be bad news there too.......

Your observation is legitimate. But land is often heavily mortgaged. So I'm wondering if it would be cheapest relative to gold not in the rising inflation but in the collapse when debt is overextended.

Pretty sure that Japan is closed for holiday.

Crystal Ball ( @Vronsky ) Sir! Are you familiar with the work of Franz Pick?

He was one of the most foremost monetary genius of the 20th century, who very correctly called the gold value surge of the 1970s. His definitive work was the book, "THE TRIUMPH OF GOLD" with an introduction by Dr. Henry G. Jarecki --- who you must remember, aqnd his intimate relation to the world gold markets. This book was last published in 1986... a must reference book for all serious students of real money.

In appreciation of his keen wisdom, we are are oblige to say:
DR. FRANZ PICK, A BLOODY MONETARY GENIUS!!!!!!

Puetz -- I can only believe in your scenario happening IF we have free and open markets. I do NOT believe this is so. If you doubt this, look at what happened to the platinum market in this year alone. What happened? Didn't 'they' give everyone of the players on the losing side thirty days to pony up?

Your crash scenario fails to take in to account the War Powers Act. It's the small things like, Executive Orders and such that would put an end to everything. If the markets tanked to such a magnitude in so little time, the government would see no other choice but to, "Feel our pain", and act accordingly. Jack boots would be everywhere to prevent 'panic'. Bank holidays and such would be the norm. Constitution? What Constitution? It's a national emergency.... Special powers are needed to deal with these extraordinary events ( read War Powers Act ) , blah, blah, blah. The truly sad part is; The public would be DEMANDING IT.

Puetz, I'm not poking fun at you. You must realize though, that the government apparatus would act ( only too joyfully! ) at this event. They would do everything to 'save capitalism from itself', as someone was once rumored to have said.

There are lots of players in at lots of different spreads. For example: my savings bank pays 2.25% on passbook deposits and may be buying 30 year bonds at 5.88% today. They can last longer than ordinary speculators who are unable to borrow at 2.25%. It is difficult to know exactly where it hits the fan. But all the trades done today are at the margin. Some bonds will not be purchased tomorrow because speculators are dropping out. Each day the condition persists or worsens the greater the pressure. History says it is very close. There are rumors that Japan will liquidate over the Christmas holiday while the U.S. is shut down.

What part of the country are you looking at?

So much of our agricultural land is overpriced by that measure. With tillable land rental going for $250/year and prime land prices sometimes in excess of $3500-4500 per acre in my neck of the woods, the land price is probably more a product of the bigger fool theory than true value.

Then given the leveraged debt market, with bankruptcies tending to increase as variable interest rates go up... hmmm...food for thought.

And gold, at least the metal itself on the local level, isn't leveraged.

Thanks.

666 + 666 + 666 = 1998

223: In reference to your question, I would suggest you compare how pitifully real estate invesments did in the Great Depression of 1929-1935 vis-a-vis gold mining stocks.

New Zealand down 71 ( 3.1% ) It must have rained last night in NZ and the sheep shrunk.

Please send it to me at polloa@webtv.net ASAP. Thank you very much.

Ideally, the Cumberland plateau area, which has unfortunately suffered a great deal recently from inflated land prices. IMHO these are a product of easy credit, "white flight", low food/clothing/transportation prices and massive injections of "free government money" in every guise from food stamps to fat pensions to the TVA. Too bad there isn't so much support for gold prices.

If a really big deflation occurs then one of the opportune times for using one's gold leverage to buy land would be when unemployment hits 25%, all the government-subsidised-corporate-farmers get disinherited by Uncle Sugar and farm commodity prices plummet. ( IMHO )

But we can't be assured of a deflationary scenerio. So I was hoping one of the more experianced investors would be able to tell me the things to look for in an inflationary spike so that one would know the probable timeing for maximizing the amount of land one could buy with the minimum amount of gold.

I think that we're living in very confusing times, with the US of A doing dangerous and unpredictable things. So we could conceivably have a "stagflation" scenerio, debt crises, taxation recessions and lots of possible events.

Playing around with a formula which describes population development in the natural world. Applied this to silver and then gold prices. Found what may be a very interesting indicator of changes in market trend. I'm wondering if anyone out there is interested in helping me prove this out. DJ, DA, JTF, Sharefin, others what say ye???

This is rather math intensive ( a bit o' algebra ) and I'd like not to post it here unless it is a piece of 'gold' with proven purity, etc.

The preliminary results show a very strong pulse like reaction to trend changes which appear to be minor and only later show up as a fundametal sea change. Similar raw data which does not subsequently show a sea change also do not show a significant pulse reaction.

Silver showed two similar drops: one in April and the other in July. This formula reacted very modestly to the April drop which subsequently flattened into a plateu. However the Jult drop triggered an extreme pulse type result from the formula. Subsequently we have seen a sea change in silver's behavior which took about two weeks to develop an unward trending in the raw data.

Here is the kicker. Gold just produced a pulse pattern which yeilded a spike 4 times more potent than the silver spike in July. Similarly other changes in golds values did not produce any noticable change in the formula results.

My feeling is that this formula or some refinement of it may prove to be an extremely powerful analytical tool in determining what is a sea change before it becomes obvious to typical TA. This should work on ANY time series data, any market. This is what I need help with. To prove this by working it against data in alot of different markets. Any takers?

Please email your interest to me at polloa@webtv.net
Thanks for your consideration of this effort.

http://www.hkstandard.com/online/finance/001/hksfin.htm

Is anyone else having trouble accessing this site?? Bart: Is your ISP in Cape Breton??........go team gold!

With Jananese markets closed for the local holiday, the KOREAN STOCK MARKET PLUNGES 6.3%. I say this with heart-felt empathty for the Koreans, and the the rest of the world, which will eventually and inevitably suffer the pains of the DOMINO EFFECT. Only some form of GOLD will provide refuge or shelter from what is to come.

A. Goose, On planning session last week,
the conclusion that Asian Tigers would be feeling pique--at the minimum--with West, and most particularly with US?

Open the FT weekender ( delivered on Monday, of course ) to find Paul Erdman, The Year Zero The Asian tigers are whimpering. They want revenge.

The conversation continued. The US economy was too strong and the dollar impregnable. After a couple more water-weak whiskies, the bitter memories of colonisation surfaced. The French, the Germans, the Dutch, the British, the French and the Americans, they had plundered Asia in the past and their currency traders and equity dealers were making another killing, bouncing around currencies at will and pushing countries to the very brink of bankruptcy.

It is the European financial system that we must target, the Malaysian finance minister said, We must find a way to undermine their currencies, their financial markets, their lifestyle, just as they have ours. If they think Asian values are dead, then perhaps they should think again about European values.

Sounds fair to me. They elect to target the Euro, and from the title, we can guess how! They expect that the tremors will do sufficient damage to the US to satisfy honor. Small world, isnt it?

PS: Ferguson's illustration is a beautiful seal-point crouched in
what might be a litter box filled with various European currencies!
Nice touch, I thought.

And then this small vignette of our world: "A Belgian chocolate manufacturer began a semi-serious campaign for fine, hand-made, aritical fat-free chocolates to be included in the reserves backing the new currency -- he argued that gold had lost its lustre and Belgian truffles had a scarity value." The only gold substitute one might reasonably consider!!!

here we go -26.46 ( - 6.68% )

Extremely slow...at times almost dead!!

donald_a--

your contributions are incalculable---------

so is the value of the position now be-stowed upon you---------

at the right hand, of the man in command, of the smoke-signal-mobile-----

the hubbly-bubbly awaits, with ted as keeper of the flame--------

you are a 'one man band' ( three dog night ) my friend........

step aboard----oh keeper, and relayer of the words of man.........

a full admiralship..golden feather...credit, where credit is due.........

c$, where is it now? where do YOU think it is going? mexican peso?
corn? chickens with lips? ok.

who is THE MAN?

cherokee!; ) -winging-westward-with-the-westerlies-as-a-friend-of-the-wind-

I do not have the numbers in front of me...but it look as if ON A PERCENT BASIS, again Gold withdrawals were larger than Silver's ... someone do the numbers!!

Go Gold ( and Silver )

Know a manager of a store in a medium size Mall. ( Double decker with

about 100 stores ) In a middle class neighbourhood in Canada. SALES

OFF MALL WIDE 20 to 50%. She also manages another store in another

mall, in a more affluent area, sales flat with last year. Sounds

like all that propaganda ( a month ago ) about a "great year" may be B.S.

Yes, it is really 6pak. Yes, I was/am a terminal victim of the gold bear.
Hibernation No! Trying to find a balance/level, that makes a winner.
Tough being on the wrong side, and realize, timing is everything.
The lessons/experience, of a loser EH! Take Care.

The predictive value of the yield curve is studied in a 1996 article in the Economic Review. Anyone can download it from:

http://www.clev.frb.org/research/review/1996q1.htm

Yep...Gold withdrawls ...12%
Silver Withdrawls...4%

For what its worth. In the land of cheeseheads,
poor farm land sells for more than good farm land.
It has been dragged there by the raging bull
market at a ratio of Dow tripled since 1990 vs.
a double on farmland. No one farms it, as it is
just a place to hunt deer and drink beer.

Govt. program called managed forest law reduces
taxes to almost zero. Another program called
CRP provides some income, sometimes up to $100
per acre on the tillable.

Guys who actually want to farm can't afford to.

But it is possible to find a piece of dirt that
comes close to the 100 x monthly rent.

I sold a farm and herd of beef cows this spring.
I will never farm again. Cash flow was tough.

I like your plan though, make sure you get the
cows and machinery paid for too. Then if you
have anything left over, you can "keep on farmin
til its all gone"

You're facts for a 2000 Dow are:


1 ) Based on a more normal dividend yield of 5%, the DJIA should now be trading at 2727.

When was the last time we had a 5% yield on the DOW? Not in my lifetime. Dividend yield is meaningless... its FREE CASH FLOW that counts. No model in the world predicts the DOW based on a yield. Comparing today's Dow yield with yields in year's past fails to take into account tax changes, to say nothing of changes in account practices. The yield on the Dow is no way to measure value.

2 ) Based on its book-value, the DJIA should be trading at 1414.

Again, book value misses decades of asset inflation that has taken place, another near meaningless measure of stock valuation.

3 ) Considering the unprecedented leverage in the market-place, trillions of dollars of debt will not be easily liquidated
once the margin-calls come due.

Finally one possible explanation of risk.... But leverage alone won't crater a market.

Real market crashes are relatively rare events. We came close to one in October. The one before that was in 1987. There was a mini crash in 1980, another one in 1974 and another one in 1967. In the 30 years I have been following the market that makes for 5 crashes, counting the small crashes. Markets are much more stable, waiting for another market crash is a little like waiting for Godot, and about as fruitful.

Paul Erdman - Didn't he write "The Silver Bears"?

And what's with the platinum group metals, falling off the cliff?

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a happy and prosperous new year.
My prediction on gold---$325 by the end of next month.

I went mostly into cash in late July, in reeaction to Joe Granvilles buy recommendation.

I shorted a number of gold stocks in late august, asa, hm and cau to be exact after lurking here for about a month. They have done very very well.

I have a 401k thru my work that I put the max contribution I can into it and don't mess with otherwise, its divided between a sp500 index fund and a small cap stock fund. Its done very well this year.

A month ago I followed Puetz's advice and bought some december sp puts which turned out to be worthless. Last nite, going against the cronically wrong Steve Puetz, I bought calls. Its a small bet, I can't get to vegas where I would normally bet, and generally lose this amount of money, so I'm doing it here.... What are you doing?

G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

You must always remember MURPHY'S LAW - if it is going to happen, it will.

Aye, Haggis

Monday, December 22, 1997

De Beers consolidates amid weak diamond market

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa ( Reuters ) - South African diamond giant De Beers Consolidated Mines Ltd. announced a major consolidation Monday in the face of a weak diamond market caused by turmoil in Asian economies.
 Sales of rough diamonds by De Beers Central Selling Organisation ( CSO ) fell 4 percent to $4.64 billion in 1997 from $4.83 billion a year ago.
 The CSO is De Beers' sales arm and supplied about 70 percent of diamonds to the cutting industry this year.
 De Beers and Anglo American Corp. of South Africa Ltd. also moved to strengthen the diamond group by merging their diamond businesses under the De Beers name.
 "The diamond world is certainly becoming more challenging," De Beers Chairman-elect Nicky Oppenheimer said during a year-end press conference on Monday.
 "I think what we're announcing today fits De Beers well to meet those challenges," said Oppenheimer, who will succeed current Chairman Julian Ogilvie Thompson at De Beers and De Beers Centenary AG on Jan. 1.
 Under the restructuring plan, Anglo American and Anglo American Investment Trust Ltd. ( Anamint ) -- both major shareholders in De Beers -- would transfer their interests in the CSO companies to De Beers and Centenary.
 Anamint would receive new linked units in De Beers and Centenary and De Beers' 10 percent holding in Anamint, which it would pass on to Anglo American.
 In addition, Anglo American would receive new Anamint shares.
 Following these changes, Anglo American would hold about 67 percent of Anamint. Anamint would hold 34 percent of De Beers and 31 percent of Centenary.
 Oppenheimer said he did not expect any staff cuts and the company's headquarters would stay in Kimberley.
 De Beers would remain the largest shareholder in Anglo American and the second-largest shareholder in both Anglo American Industrial Corp. and Minorco.
 Meanwhile, De Beers said currency woes in Taiwan, Thailand and South Korea battered consumer confidence and diamond sales in Southeast Asia. A recession also continued to grip Japan, the world's second-largest diamond jewelry market.
 Despite a forecast 10 percent jump in sales in the United States this year, the largest diamond buyer, market uncertainty will persist while Asian economies stay depressed.
 "I'm afraid if we look ahead it does not look very bright for 1998," said De Beers Managing Director-elect Gary Ralfe.
 The group's second-half sales fell 16 percent to $1.76 billion compared to the same period a year ago. Ralfe said CSO sales would be reduced further in 1998 in response to the market's difficulties.
 A positive supply factor in 1997 was a decline in Angolan and Russian stockpile sales. Ralfe was hopeful the Russian situation would continue in the wake of a new trade deal signed between De Beers and Russia in October.


Hey Haggis,

I always thought Murphy's Law was that if something can go wrong, it will. Some people have viewd Murphy as an optimist.

The problem with applying it to the stock market is two fold. First, it requires a timing. Someday, there will be another market crash. Its the nature of markets. To make such a prediction is about as valuable as saying that the sun will come up tomorrow. The timing of it is critical.
Its just like me forecasting gold at $100 sometime in the next decade. Its amusing, but not really all that valuable from an investment perspective.

The other problem I have with saying the market will crash to 2000, is that I plain don't believe it will happen and if it does, it won't because of the lame reasons Puetz is giving. At least I had a good story in arguing $100 gold.

My friend in hawaii told me that tourism was hurting because of the problems in asia. Also Las Vegas has lost some of its biggest highrollers.

BillD:Thankx---thought I was being singled out....CherOkee: Will my Canuck money be worth anything by the closing ( end of jan. ) ??---guess I should have put it on the market last summer ( DUMB me )

The only conclusion that you can draw from this. particularly given the sharp rise in the price of the stock of the company they bought is that HM paid too much for their acquisition....

The only conclusion that you can draw from this. particularly given the sharp rise in the price of the stock of the company they bought is that HM paid too much for their acquisition....

G'Day

Maybe GOLD will hit US$100 during the next decade, BUT by that time it will be through the ROOF against ALL other currencies. Under that scenario, what happens to the US$ thereafter. Trade, it takes two to tango.

Aye, Haggis

Yes, Paul Erdman wrote "the silver bears". He is a very interesting man who was a swiss banker and spent some time in jail for something to do with manipulating funds I believe. He has written several books, I have read them all and if he has written another,,,,I will get it.

Haggis, good day to you sir. Welcome to our discussion group, We value your input. To bad the leaders in our respective country's don't have the moral courage of Sir W. Wallace, a great leader.

I will be in Orlando in Feb. If there are any Kitcoites there, lets get together for coffee. bjack@cdsnet.net

Hello Reify, what a beautiful picture.
Hello DJ

Same song different verse.

I sold my tree farm when I couldn't keep up with the pine beetles and windstorms due to a chronic physical illness. But I was lucky to buy it during a wave of forced sales and sell during a lumber price surge. The guy who bought it from me made a harvest and couldn't sell the cutoff land except for a net loss when timber prices collapsed.

Unlike some gold bugs I believe that one should only keep a small ( 5-10% ) percentage in gold. This year's buying opportunity has me 'way overinvested and ( also now that I'm well again ) so I'm waiting for another move up in gold and down in land and hoping to time it right. For my next place I want to buy mature timberland and convert to pastureland as health and energy allow. Cattle raising conditions are easier further south. ( We still have the same hunters but here we lease them rights to hunt and train them to tell cows from deer. )

From my perspective the collapse of the Eastern markets is very good. They won't be able to support insanely high timber prices and so there is a possibility of a debt crisis among the medium sized owners if this keeps going on.

I keep hoping someone will pull out a chart comparing gold, land prices inflation index et cetera, but so far no takers.

December 22, 1997
FOCUS - Thrifts win a judgment in "goodwill" case

LOS ANGELES ( Reuters ) - U.S. thrifts claimed a victory Monday in a multibillion-dollar legal battle against the federal government for breaking promises it made in the 1980s to enlist their help in the savings-and-loans crisis.

The U.S. Court of Federal Claims issued a summary judgment against the federal government on key liability issues in four pending lawsuits filed by thrifts, including California Federal Bank, which is owned by MacAndrews & Forbes Holdings.

About 120 suits have been filed against the federal government by thrifts charging the government changed accounting rules offered as so-called "goodwill" incentives in the 1980s. Damages being sought are estimated to exceed $15 billion.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BANKING-THRIFTS.html

For a good laugh, check this out... http://www-personal.engin.umich.edu/~jgotts/mst3k/dollar.html It's a parody of Mystery Science Theater where the featured film is about the destruction of the dollar.

Love the page with the $100 gold certificate. Only problem is that your math is wrong....

4.84 oz of gold is worth $1413, not the $1745 you have. Had someone put the same $100 in the market, buying at the peak, it would be worth over $2600..... Just goes to show, that through market crashes and great depressions good paper will outperform commodities.

Cheers and good nite

December 22, 1997
Marcos gold scam uncovered in Australia

MELBOURNE, Dec 23 ( Reuters ) - Australian and British police said on Tuesday they had uncovered a US$9.0 billion fraud involving fake gold certificates to bullion hoarded in a Swiss bank by Philippines' late president Ferdinand Marcos.

Victorian state fraud squad police said they had arrested an unidentified 47-year-old man who would be charged in court in February with possessing false documents.

Inspector Jeff Calderbank told Reuters that Rothschilds Bank in London was contacted earlier this month by a group of Australians seeking a US$7.0 billion line of credit."It's alleged that a number of people approached the bank in London to trade gold certificates for a line of credit to the value of US$7.0 billion," Calderbank said.

"The gold was allegedly worth US$9.0 billion, but they were asking for only a percentage as a line of credit," he said. "They were holding forged gold certificates. It is alleged that the gold bullion...was supposed to be held in a Swiss bank ( and ) was bullion from the coffers of Ferdinand Marcos."

It is not known which Swiss bank was supposed to have held the gold.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/AUSTRALIA-FRAUD.html

All: I'm having a hard time getting on Kitco -- anyone else having probems?. As some of you may know, sharefin is back on the net, but cannot post to kitco. A little tidbit from sharefin: The "Oldman" went long the spoos during that "v" formation on Friday. His reasoning was that either we were going through a big-time crash, or a sudden reversal. Apparently he ended the day making 3x initial investment after some losses at the beginning. I would like to know even 1/2 of what he knows!

He probably doesn't even care if it was the PPT in action or not!

D.A: You made one very interesting point in one of your posts regarding the EURO. Regardless of why the dollar is so strong right now, its current value is too high. This is a perfect scenario for launching the EURO, since a faltering dollar will make the EURO more attractive -- even if the EURO falters later.

Donald: Looks like China is about to have its debt crisis, and a devaluation. This will not affect China very much, as most of their internal trade is by barter. But -- it will be hard on the foreign investors, who will take it on the chin -- especially Japan. If the South Korean implosion does'nt finish off Japan, the coup de gras will probably be the debt crisis in China. We all need to watch the US dollar and interest rates for any turmoil. If we have dollar turmoil, market turmoil is inevitable -- baby boomers or no!

Well - it won't be long before eager investors want to put money in China again, but that won't help Japan, will it?

ted---

for canadian$ and mexico peso------30% or better DOWN...
gov't intervention will only delay the inevitable...

they have no other avenue with the current world-wide problems
demanding attention from all sides.

ted...the peso and c$ are going down...........

would not want to be holding ANY calls on ANY curriencies now,
puts only....

corn puts kicking bootie, waiting on gold....

Well, after looking at the SWC prospectus and looking at market fundamentals I jumped in today. No boring charts, but here is an interesting site for Ballard Power Systems, a possible major user in a couple of years. http://www.ballard.com/01in/infr.html

December 22, 1997
USDA extends $1.0 bln in ag export credit to S. Korea

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The U.S. Agriculture Department said Monday that it will provide $1.0 billion in credit guarantees to help financially-troubled South Korea continue to buy U.S. farm goods.

The allocation is short of the $1.6 billion requested by South Korea earlier this month, but still the second-largest allocation so far this year under USDA's export credit program.

Karlito- your earlier post:



When was the last time we had a 5% yield on the DOW? Not in my lifetime. Dividend yield is
meaningless... its FREE CASH FLOW that counts. No model in the world predicts the DOW based on a
yield. Comparing today's Dow yield with yields in year's past fails to take into account tax changes, to say
nothing of changes in account practices. The yield on the Dow is no way to measure value.

*** For your information the S$P500 yield was over 5% ( 6% + ) as recently as 1979 and 1950. You must be then about 17, which is how mature your remarks sound. WE CAN NOT COMPARE YIELDS!!!??? What the hell are you talking about???


2 ) Based on its book-value, the DJIA should be trading at 1414.

Again, book value misses decades of asset inflation that has taken place, another near meaningless measure
of stock valuation.

PLEASE explain this one. You just do not make any sense. Since we have had about 1,200% cumulative inflation since 1913, then book-value today should be about 12 times higher than in 1913?? Please explain!!! Even CNBC would not say this drivel.

Now I know why you have it in for Puetz - you lost money on his recommendation. OW. Hey listen on that basis I would be shooting my broker by now. he kept me out of the Bull market and filled me full of Gold stocks.

Like you I found this forum about 6 months ago , but unlike you I was convinced by the proGoldies, that was 25% ago.

But hey Golds up today, I'm happy ( no less unhappy ) .

Now I know why you have it for Puetz - you lost money on his recommendation. OW. Hey listen on that basis I would be shooting my broker by now. he kept me out of the Bull market and filled me full of Gold stocks.

Like you I found this forum about 6 months ago , but unlike you I was convinced by the proGoldies, that was 25% ago.

But hey Golds up today, I'm happy ( lno less unhappy ) .

30% more=arrrrrrgggghhhhh.....Nothin I can now but wait for the damn closing......Hope yer wrong bro cause I want ta cut-N RUN.....

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=6572068-ed9

Do my eyes deceive me??!?

http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html

Is it you boys/girls down under or is the HK boys/girls??

JohnD - It was *I* who was talkin the FIBO stuff to you Re. gold. I said that my Fibo from 10/1 ( 342.3 ) said that Today ( 55 days ) was going to set us up for a move. I said the move was down and I still believe this will happen. Today, I feel even more confident than I did on Friday. Would you not agree? Thanks for the help with the stockies... You are a good egg Virginia...put some type of melon ( water ) in the Vudka...ohmy.

hey Ted...got yer incoming, you're right again ole chap.

away...to the game

aFibOtoo

Karlito99: You should not blame Steve Peutz for any investment mistakes you made. They are yours alone. Good to hear you made money shorting gold stocks -- I failed to profit from this.

On the other hand, I think going long on the US markets is a very bad idea right now -- apparently Christmas sales in the US are down 10% or more. Consumer goods purchases are the driving force behind a credit-based economy such as ours. Now - one of the few remaining beacons of a bull market may be fading. I would put my money into cash, and wait for the gold bull, or whatever else declares itself. A Japanese implosion following South Korea will not be bullish for the US markets. Have you noticed that the Nikkei is now below 15,000?

In keeping with the theme of the board -
Go gold.

Now on to trees.
I spent the month of May in N.Z. looking at
forestry estates.

Have you thought about Radiata pine, grown in
NZ. I can give you some great urls.
They can grow a pine tree 125 feet tall, with
a butt end of 22 inches in 27 years!!!
Prices of acreage can range from $250 for a
large remote piece to $3000 for small suburban
stuff. Their dollar has gone from .70 to about
.58 since then.

They prune the trees 3 times and do 1 final
thinning at about 10 or 11 years. This will
yield about 20% to 25% clear wood. It is actually
superior to Ponderosa Pine for machining characteristics
and staining characteristics.
You can pasture cattle for a few years, once the trees
get big enough. If lumber prices REMAIN CONSTANT, you
can expect returns in the 8% to 10% range. My biased
opinion is that lumber will outperform inflation or
deflation or whatever is going to happen.
I want to emmigrate but my wife won't do it.
But she is not the one to bust ice out of the waterers
when it is 25 below.
Let me know if there is any more information you want.

December 22, 1997
Five more charged in insider trading scheme

NEW YORK ( AP ) - Five more people were charged Monday with using inside information provided by a former Wall Street ethics monitor who recently pleaded guilty to securities fraud.

Baridis, a former compliance monitor at Smith Barney and Morgan Stanley, pleaded guilty in federal court Dec. 3, saying she had received $25,000 in one instance and $15,000 in another for insider tips.

The new state indictment names Jeffrey Spiegel, 32, a lawyer; Robert Nathan, 32, a former broker at Rickel & Co.; Marc Nogid, 28, a former broker at Hampshire Securities Corp.; Keith Youngswick, 30, a former broker at Beacon Securities; and Jennifer D'Antoni, a former broker at Duke & Co.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.US-Insider-Trading.html

I cant take wading through this glued-up site. May the gods smile on us tomorrow. G'night all.

A most gracious and Happy to ya kid. There will never be an empty glass in my home, arrive at any hour, day or night. Merry Christmas.

Merry Christmas to all!

Charles Keeling- interesting if Japan takes advantage of Christmas to
help our cause, sellin treasuries and buyin gold that is.

vronsky- keep up the good work! I have said all along that time will come
to buy the world ON SALE and the one that has the gold will be able to do just that. Lately, the past 2 years I have been harvesting my forest and using the proceeds lately to take advantage of this 1929 style gold market. The forest were acquired during the poor years following the 1929 crash for as little as paying the taxes. I see that time aproaching again. Gold for trees and trees for gold give or take 40-50 years.

Steve Puetz- sure is goood to have you back

- now if we could jest get George S. Cole to come back

Tally Ho

EB: You might want to look at the Kitco gold price again -- a little surprise is in store for you. Perhaps we have a gold PPT looking after us now.

By the way, when you talk about using the fibonacci series, do you include the days the market is not being traded? Weekends, holidays, etc.? So -- 55 days includes all the weekend and holiday periods? My trading software locks these days out.

Ted: By the way, I know someone who was living in Searsport, Me. He said one time the ocean froze over, and he walked out about 1/2 mile to look at an ice-bound freighter. Alot colder than Cape Breton, I think.

sweat- when I was in south Africa last year the forestery prople showed me a pine tree they grow in 8 years and is equal to one we grow in the southern US in 30 years. Only problem is I am told we cannot grow that tree here because of the southern pine beatle. They ain't got no bugs or poluted streams in South Africa yet. No chemicals to screw up the balance.

Tally Ho

ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....Bart: How bout a new ISP? ET:Hi....
G'day Aurator~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tubthumper !! Gold heading up after one more test of that Elusive butterfly bottom.Away to catch chumbawumba and Fleetwood Mac do dreams 3500.

But for now, I'm going to go to bed and dream of catalytic converters and fuel cells, all coated with platinum and all coming from SWC. http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/g/S/SWC.html

George J.W. Goodman ( Adam Smith ) and Paul Erdman were owners of
United California Bank in Basel ( Erdman was President ) and the majority shareholder was the second-largest bank holding company in the United States. In Goodman's words, "That bank went bust through the actions of its nimble 100 percent Swiss traders. There is no Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in Switzerland, and the lawyers and auditors I met subsequently in trilingual wrangles were very Swiss, and I would not want to meet any of them even in a well-lit alley."

In the Swiss tradition, Erdman did jail time because he was President of the bank that went under. Swiss law. He wrote his first book whilst in jail.

Thank you SDR for setting the Erdmund record straight.

Lalonde, of Kipor, Mexico ( hub of the Pima Indian reservation reports that all is well in Mexico, if you can call being poor well, but than, Lalonde reports, being poor is the way of life in Mexico, particularly with the peso down and commodities priced higher than in the U.S.

Feb. gold up .80 and Lakers suk!......G'nite all~~~~~~~~~

to keep our minds focused...


...who believed only in gold. The interview made him very famous. He predicted in 1966, that the Treasury would cut the dollar from gold, and that the stock market would go down, and gold would go up, and all the reasons why.

Whether we have a crisis or not, he said, depends on who wins the race between belief and disbelief. The dollar is the real international currency because the alternative is shambles. We ( gnomes ) stand for disbelief. We are basically cynical about the ability of men to manage their affairs rationally for very long.

What goes around....