We are not intimate
often
but we play

threaten,
exchange ideas,
reveal,
console.

all man's agonies
are
lessons.

CNN just broke in with commets from S. Koreas president stating he was "flabergasted" by the state of the finacial market and that the market was down -7%.

John, I like that you also like what I like..

I studied this problem of vodka healing effect for at least 20 years,
and if my gold lets me down, I will switch to writting profession.

My best selling book will be entitled " To drink or not to drink "
and will be covering all aspects of world politics, nukes usage,
predictions of price trends for vodka and gold and also some
recommendations on shooting technique. I can see at least
5 future volumes coming in the nearest future:

1."Drinking for business in Russia - Survival Technigue for Dummies"
2."Drinking and the U.S.politics - Why do we win?"
3."Drinking and Stock Market Trends - DOW secrets revealed"
4."Drinking Unlimited - What's in it for us, goldbugs?"
5."Drinking and Freedom of Speech - Lessons of History".
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Absolut Kurant, which you grabbed, is not a bad stuff, but it does
have some specific taste and you got to get used to it, otherwise
it's fine. But it heals all right...

Merry Christmas to you

TUESDAY DECEMBER 23 1997
By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent

The structural and cultural changes sweeping Anglo American, South Africa's biggest group, are continuing as the group plans to cut some of the ties that for more than 100 years have bound it closely to De Beers, the world's biggest diamond mining and marketing company.

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/v727b2.htm


Tolerant1@Poetry, U R A many faceted jewel...

sweat - Your post reminded me of a memorable 6-weeks I spent in NZ way back in 1968. Wintered-over with a NZ forestor while at McMurdo Station in the Antarctic. On the way back out we did some fishing, pig hunting ... great adventure. And yes, for the record, I remember NZ women as warm, friendly, spirited, generally much more fit than average in the US, and generally quite good looking. ( Of course I had just spent a year in the Antarctic, so this may have colored my judgement somewhat. :- ) )

( with thanks of course to Sharfin )

Wall St in near frenzy with merger deals worth $12bn

The merger mania that has gripped Wall Street all year came close to a FRENZY ( caps mine of course )
yesterday with the announcement of at least six big deals across a range of industries collectively worth more than $12bn. They take the total value of US takeover deals announced this year to $879bn, substantially ahead of the previous record of $625bn in 1996. Worldwide, the total value of mergers and acquisitions now looks likely to reach almost $1,600bn, compared with $1,108bn last year. Full story, Back to top

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/ftbrief.htm

Yes Vronsky, they fell hook, line, AND sinker...

JD - now that's a good drink over ice....mmmm......bourbon...whew!

JTF - My software only counts trading days also and from 10/1 to this last Friday 12/19 was 55 days...no? And I will sell this rally...yes.

Mikey - Thanks for the cool 'splainin on Fibo. The charts never lie...eventually...

Mr. Ted - the lakers will be the team~~~~~~~~~~~~~~!!~~~~~~go gold~~~~~...

away, for it is bath night...once a week ;-^ )

gettinsqueakycleanneedingitornot

6pak - There is a big difference between losing and being a loser. If you are still lurking and following Kitco, you're not a loser. However, you are sure right, timing is everything. After being out of the market for many years, I jumped back in last March. Stumbled onto gold, still in time to participate in the character-building experience of the toboggan ride down to the current levels. I consider the money lost to date as one of the best investments of my life! With what I have learned, the friends and counselors here on Kitco, and the vast targeted body of information flowing via Kitco on a daily basis, I fully expect a very large return on my investment. Best wishes for a prosperous 1998 to you, and to all Kitco-ites around the world.

Karlito said he sold his stock position in July using Granville as a contrary indicator. I can't disagree with that since last I heard Granville was predicting Dow 10000 in 1997. Seems Karlito's investment decision to use Granville-the-contrary-indicator might have been the reason that Karlito bought puts on the S&P and lost money. BUT NO.....

Karlito, who has been following ( investing in? ) the stock market for 30 years, said he made his mistake ( only one in 30 years ) by following Puetz's advice. How could an investment genius like Karlito make a mistake like that?

Which begs another question. Why would a pre-eminent investor ( one mistake in 30 years and it wasn't his fault ) waste his valuable time on a site inhabited by losers especially when it caused him to lose money ( this is not my question but Karlito refuses to answer John Disney ) ?

Foreign banks in Seoul call for rollover of loans to South Korea

SEOUL, Dec 23 ( AFP ) - Foreign banks operating in South Korea
will ask their headquarters to allow a rollover of loans to Seoul to
help tide over the deepening foreign exchange crisis, bank officials
said Tuesday.
"Foreign banks decided to ask their headquarters to allow the
rollover of foreign exchange credit to South Korea in light of the
serious foreign exchange crisis," an official of a French bank told
AFP.
"But I have no idea whether this request would be accepted or
not," he said.
The decision was reached on Monday when heads of some 40 foreign
bank branches in Seoul got together to discuss the foreign exchange
pinch faced by Seoul, Yonhap News Agency said.
The South Korean won touched 2,000 to the US dollar for the
first time in history Tuesday, trading at between 1,975 and 2,000.
The 14 percent plunge in value Monday came after both Moody's
and Standard and Poor's downgraded the country's credit ratings and
amid a high demand for dollars for year-end settlements.
South Korea estimates its short-term debt which matures between
December 15 and the end of December at between 14 billion and 15
billion dollars, a senior central Bank of Korea has said.
Given that part of the debt is rolled over, the actual amount
that must be paid by the end of this month is expected to be around
10 billion dollars.
Park Tae-Jun, president of the United Liberal Democrats who is
expected to become a key administrator in the next government, told
a joint meeting with the allied National Congress for New Politics,
that Seoul has only 12 billion dollars in reserves.
"Foreign debts that mature by the end of the year amounts to 15
billion dollars but the state treasury has only 12 billion dollars,
and on top of that, more than 10 billion dollars have to be repaid
early next year," Park was quoted as saying by the independent
Hankyoreh daily.

Another Japanese broker to go under: report


TOKYO, Dec 23 ( AFP ) - Maruso Securities Co. Ltd. plans to file a
petition for voluntary bankruptcy, becoming the fifth Japanese
brokerage to go under this year, a daily said Tuesday.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun said Maruso, a Tokyo-based medium-sized
broker with no affiliation to major business groups, planned to file
the petition with the Tokyo District Court as early as Wednesday.
A Maruso official declined to comment on the report, adding: "An
executive meeting is now under way."
Maruso plunged into financial difficulties due to the stock
market slump and losses from sales of financial instruments based on
Mexican government bonds, the business daily said.
It said the firm incurred losses on the Mexican currency crisis
in 1994-1995, as it had sold the instruments under repurchase
agreements.

There's room enough for Karlito as well as the gold sycophants and 'end of the world' types on this site.

For Sharfin: ( Folly,Frenzy,Fear )
Would like to have the indexes

US agency lowers South Korea debt to junk-bond status


NEW YORK, Dec 22 ( AFP ) - South Korea's credit rating was
downgraded to junk-bond status Monday by the New York-based credit
rating firm Standard and Poor's.
Standard and Poor's said it lowered the long-term foreign
currency rating of the Republic of Korea and related entities to
single-'B'-plus from triple-'B'-minus and its local currency rating
to triple-'B'-minus from single-'A'-minus.
Additionally, the agency lowered its short-term foreign currency
rating 'C' from 'A-3' and its local currency rating to 'A-3' from
'A-2.'
Any rating below triple-B is considered less than investment
grade and shunned by many portfolio managers as too risky.
S and P said it took the action because "recent steps taken by
the government to assist its banking sector place the sovereign's
own external position at risk and are inconsistent with the spirit
of the IMF program."
"The ( Seoul ) government's negotiations to intermediate external
borrowings on behalf of its banks, or to guarantee them, will not
likely succeed in restoring international confidence in the sector,"
the agency said in a statement.

BANKS SET FOR ACCORD TO CUT CREDIT RISKS
FT George Graham, Banking Correspondent

What the agreement says is that if I lend you $100m in sterling and you lend me $100 in yen, we are even., explained one London banker closely involved with drafting the accord, which was launched yesterday by the British Bankers Association.

This nifty little agreement was signed, sealed and delivered summer of 1996. Do you suspect there are a number of very nervous bankers about?

BBC reported this evening that a wealthy US investor walked into
a large antique shop in England and within 5 minutes bought up
with his paper US$, The WHOLE STORE ( ALL the antiques available ) including 18th century Spanish, French etc... furniture and other
pieces to be shipped to the US asap. Paper price was not disclosed..
This along with HM recent PAPER takeover in OZ tells me the US$
is at or vey near it's TOP.

For tgl

You admonish Dave for being rude ?? And you ignore

ME for being much WORSE. How bloody well DARE you.

The human spirit SOARS and man performs BEST in

periods of WARTIME. Motivation through aggravation.

If you want to sit around going "ahem" and "rubard rubard"

and "hear hear" - get your own site, buddy.

How would you suggest responding to bitchy little

karlita69_M, other than like Tolerant's musing over

the potential appeal of some of his/her tastier body

parts.

To paraphrase the great Orson Welles ( the third man )

- in 500 years of peace and brotherly, what has

Switzerland given us - the cuckoo clock.

To tolerant

Best of the Season to you - What exactly are you

planning for Christmas Dinner? - See Hannibal Lechter's

book of tasty dishes.

To werner

Toujour la betise.

to Haggis

Same to you old buddy

to EB ( and nick )

Never really looked at fibos applied to ratios before.

But the possibilities looked compelling. A 50 %

retracement in the ratio would really confound

everyone. Also gold seems to have drifted out of its

too steep very narrow downtrend channel in dmark and

stirling that I mentioned in prior posts - I figured

a break at around 511/513 dm and we are out to about

516/518.

G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

STRUTH..........the age range, 28 to 32 years old, still wet behind the ears. Margins, margins, margins.... derivatives, derivates, derivatives ..... furures, futures, futures. So, if guilty, do they get a fine or time?

Aye, Haggis.

China announced this evening that it is establishing full diplomatic
relations with ( very interesting ) South Africa. Embassies to open
Jan 01, 1998. China has grown to be SA 6th largest trading partner.
Are they in search of a Gold supplier?

so far Karlito and his ilk have made money in this market and we have exchanged hot air, wishful thinking, and conspiracy theories. Our day may come, but Karlito will be paying more tax on his gains this year. Pop that in your vodka.

Good point, Dave.

I caught Karlito once upon a time on his manupilation of TODAY's silver
and FUTURE's gold price. He did not answer, and, as we all know very
well, it is a sign of weakness and wrong doing...

Only 1 mistake in 30 years!???! You bet it looks like he is hidding
another mistake somewhere in order to fool us, honest goldbugs.

Even Soros admitted he made a couple of mistakes...

Unless Karlito confirms that he made not 1, but 2 mistakes,
we can not trust this guy...

The Asian currencies are being killed tonight! So far, Korea down 21%, Indonesia down 4%, Thailand down 2.3%, Malaysia down 1.8% Japan down .2%. Unless something has fundamentally changed in the market, gold will soon drop to new lows, following the currencies down. Stay alert!

Is it a typo and you meant 2.1% down?

Are New Zealand's precious metals miners successful?
How do their current assets rate against current liabilities? Are New Zealands in ground gold resources significant?
Does the NZ Central Bank hold much gold as a monetary reserve?
IMHO; recent success in straightening out monetary policy may indicate NZ as a possible SEA Monetary Haven.

Myrmidon - No typo. Won down from 1650 to 1995 to the US$!

For Ray ( and any other guys seriously interested in RSA )

I liked your posting on RSA forests a lot - However I

respectfully suggest you ease off on merits of South Africa. I know

Im going to.

My reasoning is that we now know who most of the nice guys on this

site are . Sadly, there are also a few know-alls, cheap shot artists,

ignoramuses with big mouths, and general all round nasty jerks here

too.

I would really hate to see any of these dorks make any money as a

result of a recomendation of MINE. Even worse, some of these

rats might even MOVE here. You know more about me than most here.

I get nothing out of my activities other than satisfaction.

So I suggest we cool it.

Ill continue to report quarterly results if I have time and respond

to serious questions.

Suggest you do the same.

I have some info on something here but I think it might be

premature to mention it to you yet - I want to know more and timing is not right - the Vaal group of mines are running up just fine as is

east - dagga . If you or any other reasonable person is interested let

me know by email. My only restriction is DONT TELL ANYBODY. Ill respond by email - and keep the second guessing subterrainneans off my case.

I think that this will put further pressure on the dollar, and propel up gold. When the neighbor's house is burning, ours' is also in danger. Lets see how the US market responds on this Santa news!

Sorry, friend, but I really don't want karlito in my vodka...

Lot's of big Ego's on the site, but only a FEW big market gains made..and for a couple decades, that's been the Equity investors, not the GoldBug fringe.

As to why some of us successful investors hang here with the perrenial losers, I can give you a few reasons;

1 ) For investors like myself, any site that includes educational information, along with the editorial dreck, makes the dreck worth tolerating.

2 ) Again, for those of us who have made a killing in paper, and now want to protect some of those gains in hard assets with potential ( like Silver and PLatinum ) , this site is a useful read.

3 ) For those of us who are always evolving, adpating, shifting, and changing our investment strategy with the times, all points of view are required for a good balance

4 ) For those of us who aren't "true believers" in Gold, yet want to know whether we should consider whether it's time may have come ( as it does 2 years out of 8 or so ) , an adversarial "devil's advocate" stance can bring out the best arguments from the "faithful"

5 ) I suspect that some folks ( whose names I won't mention as I refuse to speak for others ) have the same fascination with this site as I do. Namely, barring your major cult meetings, how can so many irrational, illogical, delusional thinkers, be congregated in one place!

6 ) It's hard to avert your eyes from a train wreck.

7 ) Insecurity. It's like.... "they're telling me my 500% gains in the past few years are wortless, and their enormous losses are really gains...did I missing something?"

8 ) Where else can you find so much comedy material to relax to after a stressful work day? I often have a hard time stopping my gales of laughter when I read this site!

There are many more subtle other reasons of course...but these are a few that come to mind immediately

I thought I had made a mistake once but it turned out I was wrong

I addressed my post to JTF who earlier asked why Karlito blamed Puetz for his mistake in buying S&P puts.

Just by appearing on this site as goldbugs and admitting to some human error, we are already down for a count of about five so it's not sportsman-like for somebody like Karlito to come over and kick us while we're down. I made some money in this bull market too but, since it was almost unavoidable, I don't claim any superior abilities. And I haven't heard anything from Karlito that I haven't heard over and over again from every other mainstream source.

I question why you and Karlito are here.

Myrmidon - You're right, their neighbors houses are buring. But we are not in their neighborhood. Historically gold suffers when these currencies suffer.

Leo Durocher. What'a I win?

I hope Vaal will progress today as much as yesterday .God is not the kind
of person to make public "les betises" of intelligent people .God is leaving the site now ,but will be watching later on.

G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

" The GOLDEN AGE we'll then revive:

Each man will be a brother;

In harmony we all shall live,

And share the earth together;

In Virtue train'd, enlighten'd Youth

Will love each fellow creature;

And future years shall prove the truth

That Man is good by nature:

Then let us toast with three times three

The reign of Peace and Libertie.

Verse 3, Why should we idly waste our prime.

by Robert Burns, 1759 to 1796, Scotland.

With respect to current activity on the markets, perhaps the above IS a reflection of a future GOLD STANDARD.

Aye, Haggis

Such glorification of ones suppossed success qualifies you as the "The Head Waterboy" in the Pop Warner Southern Conference.

Well said. There are real characters in this site- the like I have not seen on any other 'Investment' forum. It is truly international and does attract the most deluded Gold buffs as well as flotsome and jetsome, like myself who has seen a reasonable year turn nasty due to my broker's great adivice heavy weighting in gold stocks and my own avarice.

However, these guys do have a point. Paper is paper and can be run off at great speeds. Gold has to be mined. Only a year ago the banks were falling over themselves to lend, underwrite any half-baked, corrupt, Suharto's-son-in-law run company, and we will see in the next quarter how much their write downs will affect their earnings even with low rates.
Citibank will be a prime loser-IMHO.

You are right on the 500% returns. The truth about goldbugs is that they look for ultimate protection and in doing so, they often miss some important life-time opportunities ( DOW, etc ) .

Forgetting the past and looking at the present, no gold bug will be caught in the meltdown frenzy, now fast approaching the US shores. The non gold bugs will be looking for protection into gold stocks, bullion etc.; all in relatively low supply.

The top 10 US gold producers have a small cap of less than $20 billion. You better jump on the bandwagon before it is too late!

Explorer-New Zealand gold miners are in the main not "successful". They are laboring under extreme enviromental regulations and diminishing reserves which make them high cost producers. The Martha Hill mine is a fairly large hard rock mine on the North Island. I have no knowledge of their reserves, Aurator might know. Any reserves in the ground in New Zealand are going to stay there unless the enviromental climate changes. New Zealand miners are very good at what they do, and very,very hard workers. Nearly all the ones I know are looking for reserves off-shore.

For the record, the chart I just posted uses Kitco spot and interday currency values for the last point on the curves. Normally I use closing values and the London PM gold fix. Depending on what happens overnight tonight, these last points may move somewhat. I thought it important to catch a snapshot for you.

That's "intraday" ( in Asia ) not "interday".

To anyone interested

RSA relations with China are old news - They have been reducing ties

with Taiwan ever since the ANC took over. Recently they provided China

with a worn out nuclear processing plant.

China can always get gold from them or anything else. RSA weapons

know how is of more interest. Particularly in fields of artillery

( the G-6 long range field piece still world's best developed by

a Canadian cast off working with denel here ) - and attack helicopter system know how -

Many uninformed people are unaware of the RSA arms industry - a

side benefit of the sanctions period ( along with relative freedom

from connections with foreign banks in event of major internantional bankng failure ) .

I 'm hurting too. But I am here to prevent you guys from whipping yourselves up into a psychotic frenzy.

As I said, your posts are equivalent to kicking us while we're down. Not very sportsman-like is it? Or is it your idea of fun? If you want to use us as contrary indicators, you can lurk.

J. Disney- I am serious about visiting SA. I arrive Joberg Feb.1. I need to know what Kitco multiplier you are going to use on me should I stay at your B&B?

G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

STRUTH, which category do you fall into?

Here lies jOHN dISNEY - modest man!
Cheat him, Devil - if you can!

Aye, Haggis

I don't think it's self glorification at my own market success that enthralls me here Jack, more incredulity that so many here have contempt for market gains, and such fawning respect for total losers ( as long as said losers will continue back patting and telling them what they so deseperately want to hear ) .

Gains I've made in the market have been about 50% savvy and 50% sheer luck, since any dork could have made spectacular amounts during this DOW bull. However, it did take SOME belief in the market's potential to be in it, and to ride it through it's gains to the levels I did when I sold out a few months ago. As Karlito said, timing is everything. If I'd listened to Moron's like Puetz the past few years, I'd have as foul and nasty a temperment as the dour faced Naysayers who can post only comments like "You qualify only to be a water boy".

UmmHmm, I'll be a Waterboy on my way to the bank with gains ANY day, in lieu of an impoverished Goldbug in perpetual lala land as so many have demonstrated for so long!

For Werner - yes Vaal is nice - but may be trouble over
wes Areas/joel buyout - may be subject to JCI board approval
- JCI in total chaos - with Mzi Khumalo guitting - brett kebbel
running aroun in circles and Lonrho deal in total mystification - seems like everything got so complicated that nobody could understand it anymore. That happens to me too sometimes.

You 01:16 post gave reasons for reading this site but no reasons for posting. Why are you posting other than to kick us while we're down?

These charts are very informative. We all thank you. Where is gold going in your opinion?

Didn't you have enough !
Didn't you say you were not going to read my posts?
Well SA arms industry has assured a very bloody tribal war indeed.
I don't believe that China's priority militarily is another assault
weapon, it is knid of difficult to sink the 5th Fleet with said weapon.
This is getting silly now I've laughed enough!

No, you havn't seen me kick anybody who's down except Puetz, and the reason I kick HIS sorry arse so much, is that he insists on calling himself an investment advisor and writing newsletters to mislead so many into impoverishment. ( Not that they don't deserve same if they fail to do adequate research ) .

As a purported "certified" , and credentialed "expert" who is giving market advice to the public at large as a way to make a living, Puetze's ridiculous pronouncements deserve the most strigent open critique and review. When an ignorant layman can out call Puetz by a 10 to 1 margin or so, he's a pretty pathetic excuse for an investment advisor and deserves the criticism. And of course, I also an agenda that goes beyond his brilliant "advice".

When Puetz slandered his own country by stating that he has "No loyalty to the United States" , I then realized just how lacking in character, he is. No doubt one of the "new generation" who never served in war, is clueless as to how this country came to be where it is, was sent to college by his parents, and is now a spoiled Yuppie contributing ZERO to the betterment of society, and contributing PLENTY to bad mouth what so many in the world would sacrifice anything to have.

I REALLY had to laugh when you said I "envy'd" Puetz or some such. My GAWD I can't think of a guy I'd less want to be. ( Well, maybe Saddam Hussein.... )

Our day will come, our Golden Sun will shine, to LBG-2A I would say luck had more to play with it than anything else. If you have any doubts ask the clients of Yamaichi, half way into a recovery they believed in the market, they then lost their shirts and will have to wait till March to get their money out of the wound up Yamaichi.

Or look at the increased rate of suicides in Honk Kong since the stock and property drop. Be honest and decent enough to admit luck and leave in peace.

Merry Christmas to all, there are many who would pray to be able to have money to invest and lose.

Myr, I understand the siege/security mentality of the purist type of Goldbug, however, when you look at the historical facts, it doesn't square logically to put any faith there.

1 ) Gold has lost about 2/3 or more of it's purchasing power in the past couple decades, relative to not only cash, but important commodities like Homes, real estate, cars, fuel, food, etc. I really get blown away when folks trot out the tired old irrelevant "Suit" analogy.

2 ) Gold has been the WORST of any major investment for many years. Far from being "security" it's been an unmitogated disastor to the net worth of any of the true believers who held much of their investment wealth in the stuff.

3 ) Gold has been CONFISCATED by the govt. in the past, and could be again. How secure is that?

4 ) The CB's can set the price of Gold at will, since they hold the majority of the free supply. This is a free and secure commodity?

5 ) The changes that have taken place in latter half the 20th century, have rendered Gold obsolete as a form of monetary insurance, just as cars obsoleted horses, electricity obsoleted oil lamps, and your computer obsoleted carrier pigeons. Those who say "6000 years of history...blah blah blah... ought to wake up and look around at the past 50 years compared to the previous 5550 and see whether a few OTHER things have radically ( and permanently ) changed lately!

Myrmidon - I base my opinion on this chart. As much as I dislike it, unless the Asian currencies rally soon, gold is heading for new lows. However, if some of the other factors unrelated to supply/demand are starting to kick in, this may make a difference. Time will tell. In the meantime, I have shortened my sails dramatically, in anticipation of heavy weather.

DJ
Yup, I reckon the reason so many NZ women are drop dead beautiful, independant and vivacious is because our sheep are so gorgeous and it's so darned hard to turn a man's head.

Explorer,

Well you certainly asked a lot of questions huh? Good on ya mate. Heres the best I can do....

Are NZ goldminers succesful?
Gold has been mined in NZ since the first rush to the Coromandel in 1852. Like everywhere else, some mines have been wildly successful and some only made money for the promoters. Currently The Martha Hill Goldmine in the Coromandel is bogged down in serious litigation over the construction of a tailings dam and the liability for an impending ecological catastrophe between Otter Gold and Normandy mines. The dam was placed on top of moving rock, and the cyanide is leaching out into the water ways. This is most ungood. The mine recently announced it was going to shut down, but Ive not been able to find any confirmation. The Martha hill mine produced 23,151 oz of Au and 176,443 oz Ag in Sept Quarter, Operating costs ( according to Co, not done me own work here folks ) NZ$324 oz. Ave grade 3.3 g/ton
In S Island Macraes Gold field produced 138,00 oz in 1996 year. Both companies have forward sold unknown ( to me % of production ) so that the Macraes annual report stated that it expected to receive an average of NZ$ per oz in 1997 of NZ$685.. ( current NZ$ 493 )

Done no sums on debt ratios, sorry,

Significant?

Well, theres more gold in tham thar hills...

mother lode ( s ) in S Alps ( ? ) undiscovered. Is work being done ( v mixed results ) extracting Au from thermal bores. ( A thermal bore sounds like an aurator in a sauna- now pass the steinie )

NZ Govt holdings i think are 0. Our govt, unlike govts in your countries is comprised lunatics, sleazebuckets and wallowers at the public trough.

You are very welcome to YHO, Explorer, but NZ has already been caught in this SE Asian wild-fire, our currency is a-slipplin and a-sliding, relative to  and $, but, turned the corner relative to gold some days ago.

As Donald will assert, whenever it rains here the sheep shrink. However, he forgot to mention, that they look more attractive like that. ha ha ha ha


BTW, prize to first goldbug who posts the origin of the GOLDEN FLEECE ( will be presented by Mike Sheller ) .

aurator --- as the family descends----

I'm sorely disapointed to see so much time and energy being spent dealing with idiots here solely looking to pump up sick egos and/or look for an argument. This a problem I've been reading about in my kids' Online Gaming Magazines - online games are being trashed by wierdos signing on and just killing anyone in sight, making it impossible for others to actually play the games, and ruining the games for all. Similarly, news groups for months have been spammed so much they are no longer usable communications mediums. The only ones which I can find are still getting legitimate posts are moderated.

Earlier today I saw an LGB2 post just looking for the "professor" to come out and argue. This is absurd. Until we get a serious moderator cutting off people who abuse this site, we just have to ignore the jerk.

It would be a real shame if you stopped discussing investment opportunities because some assholes are using bandwidth to look for an argument. Your earlier post is understandable, I'm getting disgusted myself, but resorting to EMail is just giving the assholes the big victory. Besides, they'll be too busy using your recommendations as a contrary indicator to make any $$ out of them.

Aurqtor- The Golden Fleece Comes from The ancient practice of lining your sluice box with sheepskin to catch gold. Today we use Nomad carpeting.

Au contrair..luck? yes, a very important factor. And for many market players in retirement funds and such, perhaps the only factor that has made their recent fortunes.

As for my own investments. I, like Karlito, was a Goldbug once upon a time because I was following guru's like Granville and Howard Ruff ( and I was young and impressionable ) . I would NEVER have invested in the DOW back then ( though I wish I would have! ) Once I studied, researched, learned, and grew wiser, I abandoned the simplistic, Johhny One Note, lazy and unproductive GoldBug mentality, and finally got into the Equities market. At that point, luck had nothing to do with it. It was all about judgement and research, and rejection of the "bears" and the "Goldbugs" faulty reasonings of the day. ( Which have changed little since ) .

I may be "lucky" that the market has gone up so far so fast, certainly I didn't anticipate gains this good. And I bailed at P/E 20:1, DOW 8000, back in July/August, BUT for many more reasons than just trying not to press my "luck"/ It's timing.

You know, I'm always amazed when I'm sitting at a poker table with a big pile of chips, and someone tells me I'm really "lucky" ( I book a good win 4 out of 5 sessions ) . Well, there is an element of luck in the cards, that's true, but guess what? I tend to get "luckiest" against players who make incorrect plays, use poor strategy, fail to read and understand all the books on the subject, don't use computer programs to run millions of hand simulations, have no "guts", lack intuitive "feel", can't exercise deductive reasoning, don't understand the odds of each and every bet they lay relative to pot odds, adds they'll make their draw, etc. and in general, think that I'm "lucky". Against such players, I tend to ALWAYS get "lucky".

Not only that, but when I do face players that are more skilled at the game than I am, they tend to get "lucky" against me! isn't that a co-incidence?

aurator - I said I was hunting pigs, not sheep! And I can truly say those boars are butt ugly!

Speaking of sheep, time to go count some. Hold the fort, mates.

I've posted more of value and relevance to Gold and PM's here in one day than you ever will in your lifetime. Just look at your last post you hypocritical, self righteous, pontificating, blowhard.

Some facts on gold:

1. From 1930 to 1997 ( 67 yrs ) gold went from $20 to $300 - a 4.12% CGR.
Such returns although not impressive, compare somehow to bonds.

2. The world governments' controls on gold indicate that they consider it as an important asset, otherwise, why wouldn't they a;;ow their citizens to own it?

3. Their willingness to even confiscate it doesn't tell you something?

4. The market between 1967 and 1980 stayed at or below 1000. Did you ever look at gold stocks in the same period? If it wasn't for gold stocks in that period grass would be growing on Wall Street.

5. I remember a Christmas play in 1974 with Bob Hope on prime TV. He was out in the snow, and was throwing paper on the fire to keep warm. Then he added: "Those gold certificares don't make enough heat!!!!!"

6. You got lucky in this bull market. That's all!

Tuesday December 23, 12:30 am Eastern Time

HK stocks climb to higher midday close

HONG KONG, Dec 23 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong stocks recouped some of Monday's losses to close higher at the
Tuesday midday break, buoyed by Wall Street's rise overnight, brokers said.

Ricky Tam, senior research analyst at Delta Asia Securities, said most people expect the U.S. market to continue
its rise with the traditional ``Santa Claus rally.''

``And some people are covering their short positions ahead of the holiday,'' he added.

The Hang Seng gained 182.75 points, or 1.80 percent, to finish at 10,355.22. Turnover was thin at HK$3.0 billion
and brokers said the low acitivity exaggerated movements.

Ya gotta look a little closer at that research towards the big picture. Gold has been a winner for 2 years of every 10 this century. Stocks have been winners 6 to 7 of 10 ( depending on who you believe, and how you do the numbers ) .

Remember that Gold was confiscated in the mid 30's so your hypothetical 1930 on scenario doesn't work. Furthermore, the price was fixed by the Govt. until Gold was allowed to float in the 70's. From say, a year or so of the time Gold became legal to own again in the U.S. at "market" price, and once it had stabilized, Gold to thsi day is lower in real purchasing power than it was then, relative to the important real commodities I mentioned earlier.

The facts are, Gold has been a complete and total disastor as an investment, unless you use incredibly tortured reasoning, and extremely unlikely "hypothetical" investment scenarios. ( Or maybe for a few who broke the law and squirreled some away for 40 years...you could easily make the case that even they came out way short compared to "paper" )

Call it luck if you want to, for those who chose to believe in the U.S. economy, the U.S. worker, the U.S. Enterprenuer, the U.S. strength and ingenuity. Like I said, I guess it just makes the perpetual Doom and Gloom GoldBug types "unlucky".

AuProducer: Are we going to have some laughs when you get here! So quick. Will you accept in an option on, say a slab ( 24 ) of Mac's Gold, from a little boutique Brewery in Nelson ( S Island? ) Not sure how we're going to get Sheller to give you the paper. But where there's an astrologer there's a way.

aurahungforasheepasalamb

After gold temporarily spiked to around $850 from $35 it has bounced a number of times from lows in the upper $200 range to values of $400-$500; profits in mining stocks have been rather handsome, even in some of the bummers like Benquet Consolidated - that I believe a Lurking Gold Bug mentioned as one of his successes.
We bugs do take our profits and rest in short term bills or currency mutual funds as our reasoning may indicate.
IMO, most here are sickened by US Debt, and the chronic Balance of Payment Deficit that is hailed as "a victory" when it falls from $10 billion to $8 billion on a monthly basis. Thus our attack of the media and the spin doctors has more basis than simple conspiracy theories.

for AuProducer

The cottage is actually my wife Kim's preserve and she

hasnt even started it yet - I am only involved in broad

policy matters -

Are you coming alone or with wife ?

If you alone you can stay in main house in guest room

for nothing - but you run risk of 3 large dogs ( one

blind ) stepping on you with muddy feet, trying to steal

your food, or gracing you with a room full of doggie fart

( one of their favorite tricks ) .

If you want cottage, rates are 120 Rands per person

with a minimum of 200 Rand for a single person - 2

double bedrooms kitchen - living room shower pool.

satellite and subscription tv - lots of classical

music etc - access to my fax - email etc. not set up to bill

for phone calls so we'll have to negotiate that one.

200 year old House is on 2 acres of well established

garden with oaks, avo trees, jackaranda, camelia.

200 rand is a bit more than 40$/US and you have the

special benefit of receiving lots of misinformation

on RSA from me - Sinbad can straighten you out later.

Finally a post I can wholeheartadly agree with! ( what do you think of Homestake post aquisition? )

My 14-year-old son was hanging over my shoulder reading your posts to Promethius,and wanted to respond to your nasty comments, but I ( responsible parent ) said "NO! - it's not fair to pick on someone who is less emotionally mature than yourself"

Thanks for clueing me on New Zealand's gold miners and government policies, but more interesting are "the drop dead beautiful" Kiwi wimen folk.

For Haggis - you seemed interested in categorizing me _ let me help.

I fall in the anti shrashnich category - sometimes called the No

More Bulls*it group. ( im going outside soon to watch the bloody

revolution )

To all those that said "durocher" - you win my everlasting respect.

Whatever happened to his gorgeous wife ?

223 ( ? ) Donald

Who was it who started talking land calculations? Rent over 100 months = capital value is good rule of thumb for valuing land gives ROR over 8%. However, I read years ago of an American ratio that ( so the story went ) showed when the housing market was under/over valued. Thus: When the ratio of the Capital cost of a house exceeded 3.7 times the average ( local ) after tax household income then the market was overvalued. This ratio has no meaning in NZ, currently this ratio in Auckland is about 8, and has been for some years...I recall, according to Prechter's The Downwave ( long since loaned and lost ) this ratio "predicted" the Florida bubble collapse and the Collapse in Dallas in the 70s??

Jung ----Wish list----
Did anyone reply to you? Personally I'd like tight and loose proximity searching, ( within x words & within x lines ) and the ability to search on number as well as text strings with number combinations. Here's a challenge: See if you can search for "a.j." One of our new posters. I suggest being able to Sort by Date.and/or by contributor.

These are things I just dream about. ( when I'm not counting sheep, of course )

JD- Thank you for your most generous offer. I am surprised that you would post your description of paradise if your intent is to keep the rifraf out. I am traveling solo and going to the Orange river to look at some aluvial diamond operations owned by friends. Please contact me at:
Rossnovak@aol.com
It will be a few days before I can reply from that address. Again thank you, hospitality is so rare these days, and all the more appreciated.

Aurator- A Nelson brew sounds good to me. Motueka hops I assume. I am afraid that any laughter when we meet will be at my expense. I am just a digger and quite out of my league. I had to stop going down to the Grain & Grape in Takapuna on Friday nights. I kept walking into things ( walls, cars etc. ) while girl watching. You do a diservice to your women by describing them as only "drop dead" they are much better than that. Perhaps you are over exposed.Does T.A.L.T.A.C. or Waitemata mean anything to you??

Homestake's proposed take over of Plutonic looks good on paper, mining costs at Plutonic are reputed to be $195 per ounce and Homestake has been bringing its present costs down.
These things can fool an investor, more shares coupled with some future problem can happen and ruin a pretty picture.
Plutonic being an Aussie miner probably hedges, if so, probability is that Homestake may drop the hedge for a profit?
Personally I like a company that keeps adding ( when possible ) to its existing properties and not to the number of shares outstanding. This is the problem with most miners in todays atmosphere.

Go on..i'ts very informative to me...

Both sides are sort of correct, I'd only add some aruments to both of them.

LGB2 : you speak of gold as commodity, which it de jure is right now, and argue that it has gained little over past years. You are right, but gold does not make cars like Ford of BMW. It does not add value to anything ecept jewelry and microchip legs.

You are also right about US economy..it is strong indeed ( largely due to all this money you have borrowed, sorry the whole wold wants to invest in USA ) . And everybody knows that really rich are those who own fields and factories, docs and real estate, NOT gold. But it all seemes to be a bit indepted right?

I mean US has had several very good years, unemployment at minimal levels and so on, and stil US government has ( ONLY ) 22 bil dollar deficit..

And the Chief fed Greenspan is saying that fiat money system is to cause system breakdowns 2-3 times in century. And there has been only 1 during the 20th.

Goldbugs: Since every government seemes to be very busy printing fiat money at unprecedented levels it is likely to end in delfation rush who prints faster. So gold provides security and LGB2 should really compare the "gains" of malaisians who kept their holdings in paper and those who kept it in gold.

Also, during instable times, gold always has and will soar, since it does not burn and is relatively easy to carry and is and will always be a highly liquid asset. And so probably worth more than the stock of a bank noone borrows from ( or worse borrows but does not pay back ) , or factory whose products noone wants.

Geb

Geb

Aurator- What do make of D.A.'S Mon.22 14:09 post?

Waitingtohearfromabove ( below? )

AuProducer
Ain't it so often the way? You try to compliment a woman ( or in this case, all NZ women ) and end up by insultin' em. Yup Motueka, Yup to the G & G, my childhood house was torn down for part of that development, yup Waitemata, TALTAC huh?

Sounds to me you're right at home, digger.

'rator

LGB2: You are correct that Central Banks can do a lot to hold gold prices steady, CBs are very powerful.

But I would remind you that so was Soviet Union. Even further, the failure of it's system was clear in the 70-ties, still it took 20 more years to collapse, it went on for the sheer weight of it.

You are also right that world has changed a lot during last 50 years, but it has done so fo several milleniums, form pharaos to Alexander of Macedonia to Roman Empire and it's fall, to Franc Kingdom and its fall, to British Empire and it's fall, to foundation of United States to present. The point is GOLD didnt change, right?

Geb

Auproducer, But read that in the light of D.A.'s 15:51. Tell the truth I saw and did not really understand DJ's charts. This is a common condition for the aurator. I have been reading the commentaries here about them and reserving opinion. I think that the latter DA ( how could I resist that one? ) puts the kibosh on a good theory. But that is one reason I like this group, the groupthink.

I think coth I do not thwim

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

Plutonic.....

Annual exploration to Dec 96 AU$32 574 000

Market capitalisation as at 13/06/97, AU$894 600 000

GOLD operations in WA include the Plutonic, Darlot, Lawlers, Bellevue, Peak Hill and Mt Morgans gold mines. Gold production for 1996 totalled 449 811 ounces. Gold resources totalled 10.6 Moz. Gold reserves totalled 1.86Moz. Exploration manages more than 1200 tenements, comprising 160 separate projects throughout Australia.

Near Kalgoorlie, Plutonic have the Nimbus SILVER project, with oxide and transition zones resources of 929 000 tonnes at 270 g/t silver and 0.3 g/t gold. This also has massive sulphide ( zinc, copper ) zones, a volcanogenic massive sulphide VMS system. Exploration continues on this project as a Joint venture with Nimbus Resources.

At Bellvue, it is "rumoured" that PLutonic have a strike extension of a komatiite massive sulphide nickel deposit, t

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia. Plutonic.....A
nnual exploration to Dec 96 AU$32 574 000
Market capitalisation as at 13/06/97, AU$894 600 000
GOLD operations in WA include the Plutonic, Darlot, Lawlers, Bellevue, Peak Hill and Mt Morgans gold mines. Gold production for 1996 totalled 449 811 ounces. Gold resources totalled 10.6 Moz. Gold reserves totalled 1.86Moz. Exploration manages more than 1200 tenements, comprising 160 separate projects throughout Australia. Near Kalgoorlie, Plutonic have the Nimbus SILVER project, with oxide and transition zones resources of 929 000 tonnes at 270 g/t silver and 0.3 g/t gold. This also has massive sulphide ( zinc, copper ) zones, a volcanogenic massive sulphide VMS system. Exploration continues on this project as a Joint venture with Nimbus Resources. At Bellvue, it is "rumoured" that PLutonic have a strike extension of a komatiite massive sulphide nickel deposit, the extension of Jubilee Mines Nl Cosmos project, which has achieved grade intersection sof up to 10% nickel over 20 metre widths. The total magnetic anomaly is some six kilmotres in strike. Again, exploration is on-going. Jubilee at at feasibility stage of evaluation.

Aye, Haggis

Aurator-OK so he retracts his premise. I thought the logic was solid. So what if? I was not aware that understanding was necesary to post here. I should be loosing my password ( s ) soon then. If I catch DA sometime I'll ask him to explain it all in very small words if he cares to. Waitemata Gun Club and Tongariro And Lake Taupo Anglers Club, I'm sort of their pet American always available for a friendly bash. Sorry about your childhood home...This too shall pass.

G'Day,

Here's a good exercise. Place your head between your knees, cover your face with your hands and rock back and forth slowly, chanting - OH MY GOD. But, try not to think about either myself or TZABEAK or aurator. Feels good, doesn't it.

Also, you will obviously be aware that nobody takes notice of a meek person. So, use a loud, strident voice at all times. If someone does not understand you, for example a Scotsman, TALK LOUDER.

Aye, Haggis

Mankind has progressed markedly over a relatively short time. Technology has in mostly been for our betterment. Then who really needs all these hightech advancements?
It's possible that mankind was happier living on the frontier, than we are today with all our modern conveniences.
Placing our security on paper money has to do with human nature. Paper money has a history of failures.
I am not talking about Gengis Khan type confiscations, in such cases Eldorado's foxhole theory and heavy munitions would be better than the yellow, but then you might need the yellow to buy the shovel and things.

G'Day.

Central Banks = Rothchilds.
Major Gold Mining Companies ( Anglo America Copr, Rio Tinto ) = Rothchilds.

Central Bank = FED
FED not= US Government

Therefore.......

Central Banks = Major Gold Mining Companies.
US Government not= Gold.

There IS in existance a GOLD CARTEL, run by Rothchilds from London. Therefore GOLD price will come right when Rothchilds decide.

Aye, Haggis

So... If she weighs as much as a duck she's a WITCH!!!! And what do we do with Witches??

G'nite all

Well said Jack.

Gold embodies a worthwhile concept in it's own right without at the same time meaning growth, growth, growth, and profit, profit profit.

Those who miss the point of gold might show some courtesy to those who value it philosophically, especially in their 'own house'.

Do you throw your sick child to the wolves? Do you abandon your cherished ideals when they become less fashionable? Certainly that is the message of those who chase growth and profit at any cost.

Right on, Prometheous. Lets stick to matters of real interest, and not be sidetracked by belligerent party crashers!

G'Nite

It would either have to be a VERY BIG Duck, or a VERY SMALL women.

Aye, Haggis

Lihir Gold ( lihry ) with proven and probable reserves of 21.6 million ounces and a global resource of over 42 million ounces was as high as US $40 not to long ago, now sells for about US $20.
Vengold ( vengf ) who owns about 10.2% of Lihir controls about 2.2 million of those proven ounces and sells for less than a US buck.
Talk about how they mangled the gold miners, eh. Vengold has a web site http://www.vengold.com Think that Vengold has around 90 million shares?

I believe a short term bottom is in for gold. The main reason is that the cbs are terrified of deflation and will cease their manipulations,
After all they only wanted to create a little disinflation.
Has anyone noticed that many low priced junion mining cos have rebounded nicely from their Nov-Dec lows. some are up from 40-80%

There is a Risk Indicator calculation example for U.S.? home prices shown in a book by English & Cardiff ( page 189 ) . It takes the annual median new home price, divided by the average annual S&P 500 + 6 ( 1997-1905 ) . The answer will range from 500 to 1000. The higher the number the higher the risk. Using $70K for the house and 800 for the S&P the risk number would be 639.5 right now. I have no idea if the house price is right. I just used it to show an example.

Has anyone seen George S Cole. Has he decided to show his face here YET!

I wish you all would quit picking on John Disney. He does not deserve this. He is always polite, considerate and understanding of another's opinions. He is never dogmatic in his views. Although residing in RSA, he placidly accepts critisim of his country from the humble "Scot", NZs and the NAs and responds to such critisim like the true gentleman he is. Moreover, he constantly supports and calmly explains, for the benefit of this forum, why RSA miners are the best investment in the universe nothwitstanding that workers are on strike more than they work, mining takes places at such depths that it takes a day to move from the surface to the mining stopes so as not to get "bends", and that since the gold is underwater and next to the earth's "magna layer" more energy costs are consumed in pumping water and ventilating heat than processing the mined gold. And, unlike Aurator, he never gets upset when others disagree with these opinions. And, as we all know, it is not his fault that the RSA miners he recommends keep going down in price, it his the fault of market and, of course, Barrick Gold.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971222/soaring_australian_g_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971222/japan_deposit_taking_1.html

Good morning Donald and all. The shares are shining.

http://nypostonline.com/business/1957.htm

Hi Carl. Rain, slush and yuk this morning here.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971222/bank_of_canada_100_d_1.html

I hate to keep harping on the yield curve but come on people, yesterday was another strange day. 90 day paper up 7 bps, 30 year yield down. Whole slope now well under 50 bps. This is not a good sign for the bond market or the economy.

Same here. Have to go out in it now for a while. Later.

5m oz of silver have been drawn from Comex warehouses
at this rate there will be no more silver left
in Comex warehouses in three months

G'Day,

Aye, I suppose you have a point.

He does however appear to treat every day as if it were Monday morning. This formum is not the place to spend time with people who are calm and smiling no matter what happens, as their stupidity will send your blood pressure through the roof. Perhaps he should plan a holiday in a war zone, and go to Jo'burg for a long weekend.

If you track the historical data of Australian Mining stocks, particularly over the last year, you will find that the current prices are DOWN the order of 50 to 75% over June 97 prices. Should GOLD GO, there is BIG UPSIDE on the share prices. Very good potential in Australia. I will compile a TOP TEN and post tomorrow.

Merry Xmas to one and all, particularly to those in my old stomping grounds in Zambia, South Africa and Namibia. Perhaps I have a broader perspective of Africa, I lived in SouthERN Africa for ten years. It is not ALL "black and white", there are some very deep shades of grey.

Aye, Haggis

Mutual Funds
Gold-Based Mutual Funds
Are Not as Good as Gold

By AARON LUCCHETTI
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Gold bullion has lost many friends in its 21% slide
this year. But mutual-fund managers investing in the
precious metal are probably even lonelier.

Funds that invest in gold-mining companies have
turned in one of their worst performances in years, far
exceeding the losses in the metal itself.
Gold-oriented mutual funds have lost 44.7% of their
value this year according to mutual-fund tracker
Lipper Analytical Services Inc., worse than any other
fund category.

And while the fall in the gold price gets most of the
blame for the funds' woes, holding gold actually
turned out to be a less disastrous investment in 1997
than the funds themselves. "It was a brutal,
humbling year," says Michael Chapman, co-portfolio
manager of San Antonio-based U.S. Global Investors'
World Gold Fund. "It would be difficult to find
anything that has been beaten as severely."

Why have gold funds fared worse than the battered
metal itself? Part of the reason is that much of the
so-called hot money that flows into the gold sector
comes into mining-company stocks, not the
commodity, analysts say. "During 1996, a lot of fund
[managers] who never got involved in gold mining
bought these stocks," says Victor Flores, senior
mining analyst at Toronto-based Marleau Lemire
Securities Inc. This year, however, many of those
fund managers dumped their mining stocks, hurting
those performance numbers even more.

Even without the flight, gold-mining stocks tend to
encounter more-volatile price movements than the
gold-bullion market. That's because mining
companies' earnings are leveraged to gold price
moves. For instance, gold's 6.7% decline since Nov. 1
would have shaved away nearly 100% of the earnings
potential of a mining company that extracts gold at a
cost of $290 an ounce. Further, the bullion market
has more international players, which dilutes some of
the impact of investor inflows and outflows. "We've
given ourselves the ability to hold gold bullion,"
instead of gold stocks in times of downward price
movement, says Larry Kantor, managing director at
Lexington Management Corp., which runs gold and
silver mutual funds. "Gold bullion tends to hold the
value better than the stocks, and we tend to hold
more bullion in a down market."

In its gold fund, for instance, Lexington increased the
percentage in bullion to 17% this month from 13% at
the end of last year. With an increasing percentage of
the fund moving into cash as well, the fund now
dedicates only 71% of its assets to gold-mining
stocks, down from 82% last year.

Indeed, at the end of this tumultuous year, gold-fund
managers are mounting a frantic search for ways to
diversify out of gold-mining stocks. Since last year,
"more of the gold-fund managers are investing in
non-gold stocks," says Mark Wright, a senior analyst
at Morningstar Inc., the Chicago-based fund-tracking
company.

"In retrospect, it was a smart move," to put resources
in cash, says U.S. Global Investor's Mr. Chapman.
"The gold market was performing poorly and [some
funds] decided the best strategy was to go to cash.
It buffered their returns." Mr. Chapman maintains
that U.S. Global Investors will stick to gold stocks
and let investors who want cash migrate to a
money-market fund. "It's not our job to allocate their
assets," he says.

Instead of cash, some fund managers have switched
to stocks that primarily produce silver, a metal that
has gained 25% this year, a marked contrast to gold.
With gold threatened by the possibility of continued
central-bank sales, silver presents an alternative
commodity without a looming supply overhang. In
fact, registered silver inventories have declined this
year amid heavy fund interest and increased demand
in India, where the jewelry industry has been buying
the metal heavily. "Silver looks a lot better right
now," says Daniel B. Leonard, senior vice president
and portfolio manager of Invesco Strategic Gold Fund
in Denver. But despite a reduction by the fund in its
gold-stock holdings this year to 80% from 85%, new
investments in silver and diamond companies haven't
helped too much. The fund has still lost 57% this
year.

Ultimately, most gold-fund managers can't remove
the gold component from their funds. While some,
such as United Gold & Government Fund, of Shawnee
Mission, Kan., have fared slightly better by mixing in
U.S. government securities with the precious metals,
most gold funds are trapped by their investment
strategies to keep the bulk of their assets in gold
stocks, regardless of the market conditions. "Anybody
who wants to buy into a gold fund is investing in a
sector fund," and therefore doesn't want cash, says
Jean-Marie Eveillard, portfolio manager of the SoGen
Gold Fund.

But now, investors are looking for a way out,
increasing the pressure on gold-fund managers to cut
losses. According to AMG Data Services, Arcata,
Calif., investors have pulled money out of the gold
and natural-resource fund sector eight out of the past
12 weeks. "People are disgusted," says Mr. Eveillard,
noting that from $5 million to $10 million has flowed
out of his $32 million fund this year. "I'm a patient
investor, but I don't want to be stubborn." Mr.
Eveillard says he will follow through on promises to
refund investors' money -- and close the fund -- at
the end of next year if gold prices fail to rise. "I'd
presume the price would have to be over $300 an
ounce," in order to keep the fund open, says Mr.
Eveillard. In trading on the Comex Division of the
New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday, the nearby
December contract closed at $291.10 per troy ounce,
up $1.60.

To be sure, some analysts expect a bounce for the
volatile sector, which has given fund investors years
of both breathless returns as well as difficult years
like 1997. "Potential selling [of gold] by the central
banks will be managed in a way so that they won't
depress their own price," says A. Michael Lipper,
president of Lipper Analytical Services. "And once the
fear of [central-bank] selling is out of the way, there
will be a natural bounce back."

But funds may start to close if the turnaround doesn't
happen soon. Some smaller mutual funds that invest
in precious metals with $25 million or less under
management will likely close or merge if the bullion
price stays low in 1998, analysts and fund managers
say. "You start to wonder if it's still profitable," for
these funds, says Marleau Lemire's Mr. Flores.

MELBOURNE, Australia, Dec. 23 /PRNewswire/ -- Standard & Poor's today downgraded the local and foreign currency

debt and counterparty ratings on eight Korean banks ( see list below ) . The banks affected by this rating action include: Hanil

Bank, Kookmin Bank, Korea Exchange Bank, Korea Long Term Credit Bank, Korea First Bank, Korea French Merchant

Bank, Pusan Bank, and Shinhan Bank. These ratings remain on CreditWatch-Negative.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/971223/s_p_lowers_ratings_1.html

MELBOURNE, Australia, Dec. 23 /PRNewswire/ -- Standard & Poor's today lowered the long-term foreign currency ratings

on all the South Korean industrial and utility companies that it rates to single-'B'-plus. The short- term ratings on the corporate

entities also were lowered to 'C'. ( see list of rating below for individual rating changes ) . All ratings remain on CreditWatch with

negative implications. The downgrades follow the downgrade of the Republic of Korea's long-term foreign currency ratings

today to single-'B'- plus, and of the Republic's short-term foreign currency rating to 'C'.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/971223/s_p_korea_corps_1.html

G'Day

No offense, but you are obviously not a Geologist. With respect, I actually worked as a Geologist at Number 5 Shaft, President Brandt Gold MIne in Welkom in the Ornage Free State. The fact that the South African Mines are going DEEP AND DEEP is the key issue concerning the cost function of operations, and hence the conversion of geological resources to mineable reserves. This is not an easy conversion for South African mining companies, hence their diversification overseas.

IF, a hypothetical, IF I was sitting in Jo'burg with a billion dollars to invest in NEW gold mines, I would NOT invest it in South Africa. I would humbly suggest that AUSTRALIA would be the first priority. As an example, look at the growth Normany has achieved in Australia over the last ten years, with a large number of "our" gold provinces still untested. Australia is, after all, 13 times the size of South Africa, with a third of South Africa's population. Aussie is a BIG place mate.

Aye, Haggis.

G'Day

No offense, but you are obviously not a Geologist. With respect, I actually worked as a Geologist at Number 5 Shaft, President Brandt Gold MIne in Welkom in the Ornage Free State. The fact that the South African Mines are going DEEP AND DEEP is the key issue concerning the cost function of operations, and hence the conversion of geological resources to mineable reserves. This is not an easy conversion for South African mining companies, hence their diversification overseas.

IF, a hypothetical, IF I was sitting in Jo'burg with a billion dollars to invest in NEW gold mines, I would NOT invest it in South Africa. I would humbly suggest that AUSTRALIA would be the first priority. As an example, look at the growth Normandy has achieved in Australia over the last ten years, with a large number of "our" gold provinces still untested. Australia is, after all, 13 times the size of South Africa, with a third of South Africa's population. Aussie is a BIG place mate.

Aye, Haggis.

G'Day

No offense, but you are obviously not a Geologist. With respect, I actually worked as a Geologist at Number 5 Shaft, President Brandt Gold MIne in Welkom in the Orange Free State. The fact that the South African Mines are going DEEPER AND DEEPER is the key issue concerning the cost function of operations, and hence the conversion of geological resources to mineable reserves. This is not an easy conversion for South African mining companies, hence their diversification overseas.

IF, a hypothetical, IF I was sitting in Jo'burg, LOndon or New York with a billion dollars to invest in NEW gold mines, I would NOT invest it in South Africa. I would humbly suggest that AUSTRALIA would be the first priority. As an example, look at the growth Normandy has achieved in Australia over the last ten years, with a large number of "our" gold provinces still untested. Australia is, after all, 13 times the size of South Africa, with a third of South Africa's population. Aussie is a BIG place mate.

Aye, Haggis.

G'Day

No offense, but you are obviously not a Geologist. With respect, I actually worked as a Geologist at Number 5 Shaft, President Brandt Gold MIne in Welkom in the Orange Free State. The fact that the South African Mines are going DEEPER AND DEEPER is the key issue concerning the cost function of operations, and hence the conversion of geological resources to mineable reserves. This is not an easy conversion for South African mining companies, hence their diversification overseas.

IF, a hypothetical, IF I was sitting in Jo'burg, LOndon or New York with a billion dollars to invest in NEW gold mines, I would NOT invest it in South Africa. I would humbly suggest that AUSTRALIA would be the first priority. As an example, look at the growth Normandy has achieved in Australia over the last ten years, with a large number of "our" gold provinces still untested. Australia is, after all, 13 times the size of South Africa, with a third of South Africa's population. Aussie is a BIG place mate.

Aye, Haggis.

Speed, your little submission was quite depressing. However, to ward off the spirit of total depression I submit the following:

A barber gave a haircut to a priest one day. The priest tried to pay for the haircut but the barber refused saying, "you do God's work." The next morning the barber found a dozen bibles at the door to his shop.
A policeman came to the barber for a haircut, and again the barber refused payment saying, "you protect the public." The next morning the barber found a dozen doughnuts at the door to his shop.
A lawyer came to the barber for a haircut, and again the barber refused payment saying, "you serve the justice system." The next morning the barber found a dozen lawyers waiting for a haircut.

Posted by R.F. on IS site

The following is an interesting article on gold by Ted Slanker on Info-Mine.Predicting

the gold price in dollars is tough. That in

itself is a two-part question. In our modern world, there

are two solar systems. One consists of commodities, man's

labor, and finished goods all of which orbit around

real money. ( Real money is gold. ) Their valuation

relationships are actually constants. But there are

minor variations that occur, but they are cyclical.

The variations between tangible things aways passes through

normal on its way to too much or too little in terms of

relative values. Even gold, the center of the system,

will occilate a little.

The other solar system consists of irredeemable currencies.

They they orbit around nothing except themselves. Over time

they all lose purchasing power. That means that over time

they lose relative value to the solar system of tangible

things and they never fully rebound. For instance, the

U.S. dollar, considered to be one of the world's "hard"

currencies that is now called a safe haven, has lost 95%

of its purchasing power this century and it will never

regain that lost purchasing power.

In terms of relative values, in the first solar system

there are always some distortions. That is why there

is relative movement. If I use the dollar as a temporary

measure ( remember it is always shrinking ) I can tell you

what certain things are worth.

For instance, relative to finished goods, commodity

prices are about half of their long-term normal relationship.

In other words, the CRB index should be about 500. Gold

should be about $400. Silver should be about $10. Etc.,

etc.

If I make valuation comparisons in terms of real money

I will say that one ounce of gold will buy a good man's

suit or 300 loaves of bread or 40 ounces of silver. In

1900 one ounce of gold bought 300 loaves of bread. It

only buys 220 loaves today. But in time it will buy

300 loaves again.

The dollar, on the other hand, bought 14.5 loaves of bread

in 1900 and it only buys 3/4 of a loaf today.

The dollar's value is based on confidence, and confidence

alone. Currently, the masses are very confident about

some irredeemable currencies ( especially the dollar ) ,

but very suspicious about others. That will change. When

it does, it may involve both a relative increase in gold's

relative value versus all tangible things and a loss of

confidence in the dollar.

Ultimately, the dollar will be worthless. When it is one

ounce of gold will still buy 300 loaves of bread and all of

the other valuation relationships between tangible goods

will be the same as they have been for the past few

thousand years.

So, with this explantion maybe you can tell us what the

gold/dollar exchange rate will be in 1998.

The Asian crisis is a credit implosion. Credit implosions

in credit systems based on irredeemable currencies results

in the currency losing purchasing power. That is why the

gold price in South Koran won has soared way above its 1987

highs. Will people continue to flee from the frying pan

into the fire. Or at some point in time will they opt to

hold tangibles?

Predicting 1998's gold/dollar ratio is like calling the

stock market peak. Maybe it is like calling the tangible

peak in 1980 or the tulip bulb mania peak in the 1600s

or whenever it was. Man's current affinity for stocks,

bonds, and paper currencies is just another one of his

passing fads. Therefore it an emotional explosion that

will result in a emotional implosion. The timing is tough

to call, but the ultimate consequences of man's folly is

very easy to predict.

The following is something I wrote recently that may

be helpful here.

Joe Granville has a particular line regarding investments

that I really like. It is, "What everyone knows is

worthless."

Today, can you think of anyone who does not know that

some central banks have sold or are selling their gold?

If I've heard it once, I've been told about central

bank sales more than I have heard that "inflation is

under control," and I've heard that line a trillion

times. When it comes to investing in gold stocks,

there are no two more worthless bits of knowledge than

that the central banks are selling their gold and that

price inflation is under control.

On the flip side of what everyone knows is what they

do not know. And in terms of money and credit, what

the public ( including politicians, educators, economists,

businessmen, bankers, and investment advisors ) doesn't

know would fill volumes. Yes, what they do not know is

that gold is money and currencies are IOUs redeemable

for nothing. More important, they believe unequivocally

that the dollar is different from all of the currencies

that have ever failed, which includes the Russian ruble,

Mexican peso, and currencies of the Southeast Asian

countries. They also believe unequivocally that price

inflation is under control.

Surprisingly, even though the dollar has lost 95% of its

purchasing power this century, no one seems to be worried

about the dollar losing that last 5%. What is so sacred

about that last 5%?

Gold is money, not a commodity.

For commodities to have value they must be used and

consumed. Consequently, the value of a commodity responds

to a delicate balance between its supply and demand. If

any commodity were to have an available inventory that

even approached 100 years of annualized production, that

commodity would be worthless. Because gold is highly

valued and it has an inventory base equal to 100 years

of annualized production, it is money.

I know that many people have trouble swallowing this

concept. But if the supply of money was too small, its

value would be far more erratic than gold's value. So,

because of its supply ( which requires great human effort

to increase ) and its great value ( even when depressed

its worth about $300 for a tiny ounce ) , gold is money.

Additionally, gold has many other attributes that proves

it is money. It has a history of being a store of value,

a measure of value, and a medium of exchange. It is

acceptable, homogeneous, divisible, incapable of being

counterfeited, durable, stable in value ( over time, over

time ) , and portable. All these qualities are behind the

definition of money, and nothing but gold has met the

definition of money.

So, if gold is money, then its supply is a positive, not

a negative. With four billion ounces in its "float,"

gold is probably man's most abundant single tangible

product. And, since it is money, everyone has an

interest in having gold, if not to spend, then to save.

When a holder of gold decides to use his gold ( money )

to purchase something else, that does not increase gold's

supply. The same is true when someone decides to sell

something for gold ( money ) , that does not reduce gold's

supply.

There are hundreds of reports out today that are trying

to predict gold's value based on analyzing supply and

demand in the "gold market." They are all useless. It

is impossible to determine the value of money by trying

to measure its ebb and flow as if that movement was supply

and demand. Gold has an ocean of supply and infinite

demand. At any given moment, gold can come gushing onto

the market from millions of different sources. On the

other hand, demand for gold can rush the market from

millions of different sources at any given time.

But gold's supply is still rather small. The number of

things held by people who may want to swap their things

for gold ( money ) at any given moment are in much, much

greater supply than gold. And, one of the most abundant

things people hold, that they may want to swap for money,

is irredeemable currency. The supply of paper money is

exceeded by nothing else that mankind has produced, and

its supply continues to grow nonstop.

Therefore, don't worry about gold, worry about irredeemable

currencies.

MARKET UPDATE ( 12/22/97 ) AM-----Gold continued its up trend this morning on things

getting even worse in Asia, the Bundesbank announcement about gold's future role in

Europe and hectic buying in India for the wedding season. Gold was lifted overnight in

Hong Kong on Japanese buying on the growing fear of Japanese bank failures in the

near future. The fact that Japan cannot seem to shake its deflaionary lethargy points to

the probability that most of its balance of payments earnings are going to pay off bad

debts, instead of fueling economic growth -- an Asian Black Hole which could very

well suck a good chunk of the world's liquidity if things don't change soon. Along

thesre lines, the fear of Japanese bond selling persists, but the bond market continues

up as some investors still view U.S. Treasuries a safe haven. Japanese stocks were

down another 3.5% overnight and the Hong Kong Hang Seng was down 2.25%. This

morning Moody's, in a related matter, downgraded South Korean, Malaysian,

Indonesian and Thai bonds to junk. Bundesbank president Tietmeyer's comments

about Germany not selling any of its 3700 ton gold reserve -- the world's second largest

after the United States -- also gave gold some impetus this morning. Some of the shorts

are covering as they are beginnng to see this as a recovery with $282 as the low for the

time being. We need a real breakout though to call this the beginning of bull market.

Right now I would have to label the recent up move a bear market correction. A couple

strong up ticks though and bears might have to throw in the towel. It hardly matters

though to asset preservation gold buyers. This is a buyers opportunity which captures

the essence of Christmas -- a gift wrapped opportunity for both the gold bugs and

those simply looking to garner some potential profits in the New Year. More later if

warranted but we expect this to be a quiet time leading up to Christmas. Hope you have

your shopping done. I don't and greatly fear what I face at the mall today. Take care

fellow goldmeisters.

http://www.usagold.com/Daily%20Quotes

President-elect 'flabbergasted' by scale of South Korea crisis

Kim Dae-jung, the president-elect of South-Korea, was reported by a local

newspaper as saying he was "flabbergasted" by the seriousness of the

country's financial crisis. He said he did not know whether South Korea

would go bankrupt tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. The South Korean

won dropped 15 per cent against the dollar, while local stocks shed a record

7.5 per cent.

From Financial Times ( London )

G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

Good posting. It makes one think about re-initiating gold exploration in South East Asia, after the BreX fraud essentially killed exploration. Worth a thought.

Aye, Haggis

All: Given that it is nearly Christmas, I propose a moratorium on personal attacks. I wish I could think of something that would work for the entire year, but I guess that is asking for too much. Happy holidays, everyone.

Sad......but true--good joke ( ? ) ...Feb. Gold up 1.10 @ 293.80

The 'Holidays' especially Christmas are the best of times for personal attacks ( grin thing )

For Skylark

Thank you skylark

for Haggis

Thank you Haggis

G'Day,

WOW, not good........All eyes on Japan tomorrow. Focus on 14000 point level for the Nikkei, very painful. IF that is hit, ALOT of US Bonds may be offloaded on Christmas Day, and hopefully ALOT of gold purchased. To reiterate, BOJ holdings of gold were 0.4% of its equity portfolio, July 1997.

On Monday the Nikkei closed at 14 799.40. The action can be followed on http//satellite.nikkei.co.ip

Enjoy the SUN set up until the point you realise the colours are caused by airborne pollutants - floating greenbacks.

Aye, Haggis

- FRB Top-Dog Shares His Candid Opinion On Gold

- Greenspan: Still Going for the Gold

Once at the following website, scroll down until you see Mr. Greenspans bright-eyes peeping out at you, then CLICK him... where ever you like. IF you do NOT see Greenspans photo, RELOAD THE PAGE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com

This is a quote from the January issue of "Money Forecast Letter"

"We can hardly wait until a big hedge fund goes belly up as their short-sale derivatives on gold turn sour. They have borrowed 5 billion ounces of gold from a Central Bank and have sold it short, that gold will never be returned...having been turned into gold jewelery and sold during the Holidays. We would hope for the sake of the fund managers that the gold had not been borrowed from the German Central Bank, since they love their gold and do not like being humiliated by a giant loss"

December 23, 1997

Korean Chaebols Gasp
Under Suffocating Debt

By STEVE GLAIN and NAMJU CHO
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

SEOUL, South Korea -- An alarming plunge in the currency, soaring
interest rates and a sharp curtailment of lending are choking South Korea's
lumbering conglomerates, known as chaebols.

So precarious is the country's economic situation that, after meeting with
U.S. Treasury Undersecretary David Lipton and others on Monday,
President-elect Kim Dae Jung declared the country's financial crisis worse
than he expected. He said Korea must carry out urgent reforms "to
improve the country's economic structure."

That brutal change appears certain to entail fresh rounds of bankruptcies
and retrenchment, which would winnow the ranks of this country's
once-voracious business combines, perhaps imminently. Although the most
vulnerable companies generally are thought to be among Korea's smaller
groups, the watchlist of businesses under pressure now includes affiliates
of some of the country's best-known concerns, such as Samsung, Hyundai
and Hanjin.

The crux of the problem is debt: An estimated $15 billion in short-term
corporate borrowing must be repaid or rolled over by year end. In a
country where companies' average borrowings are four times their equity,
that's a dangerous situation. Eight of the country's top 40 chaebols have
sought court protection from creditors this year. The remaining groups are
threatened by a combination of high debt, a weakened currency and slow
demand both at home and abroad.

Ratings Are Downgraded

Reflecting the deepening gloom, two major international credit-rating
agencies -- Moody's Investors Service Inc. and Standard & Poor's
Ratings Group -- downgraded South Korean credit ratings on Monday.
Moody's lowered the ratings of 20 banks and some of Korea's
best-known firms or their affiliates, including Pohang Iron & Steel Co.,
Hyundai Motor Co., Korea Electric Power Corp., Samsung Electronics
Co. and Korea Telecom. S&P cut the long-term ratings of Samsung
Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Hyundai Semiconductor America Inc. and
Daewoo Corp.



Tough Times Ahead for Korea's Finest

Company
Net Profit
1996
( millions )
Net Profit
1997
Forecast
( millions )
Net Debt-to-
Equity 1997
Forecast
Hyundai Electronics Industry
-$123.2
-$134.3
850%
Korean Air Lines
41.5
-26.0
684-a
Halla Engineering & Heavy
Industries
-28.0
-2.9-a
N.A.-b
Samsung Heavy Industries
-172.3
-101.6
565
Hyundai Engineering &
Construction
12.3
-15.2
621


a-First-half 1997
b-Capital base wiped out
Note: Profit figures converted to U.S. dollars from won at current rate

Sources: Company data, ING Baring Securities Ltd., SBC Warburg
Dillon Read Inc.



The downgrades jarred Seoul's shattered stock market, pushing the key
composite index down 1%, or 4.13 points, to 396.06 on Monday. The
country's battered currency, the won, resumed its ungraceful dive, closing
almost 10% lower at 1,715 won to the dollar -- half its level of two
months ago. Benchmark interest rates, measured by yields on three-year
corporate bonds, soared about three percentage points to 30%, nearly
triple their level of two months ago.

On Tuesday, the key index fell 29.70 points, or 7.5%, to 366.36. The
dollar closed at 1,962 won.

The market on Tuesday was also weighed down by the exit of institutional
investors out of stocks into bonds as the interest rate on three-year
corporate bonds continued to rise. The benchmark three-year corporate
bonds closed higher Tuesday, up 1.11 percentage points to the all-time
high of 31.11%. Monday's closing level was 30%.

What those stark figures reflect, analysts say, is a severe credit crunch.
Companies are scrambling to obtain the foreign exchange they need to
repay their often-massive foreign debts. Even local currency is hard to
come by. And prospects for growth are slim.

The Death of Collaboration

"Corporate profitability will shrink," says Stephen Marvin, an economist at
Ssangyong Investment & Securities Co. In the worst-case scenario, he
warns, "cash flow will dry up, and a string of large-scale bankruptcies will
deliver a fatal blow to the financial sector."

The chaebols' hegemony is threatened not only by defaults, but also by
design: A $57 billion bailout package cobbled together earlier this month
by the International Monetary Fund aims to hasten the demise of the
opaque collaboration, including politically motivated lending decisions the
chaebols have enjoyed with the government. The aid is conditional on
reforms that will end the chaebols' economic hegemony here.

Korea's chaebols once prided themselves on making everything "from
chips to ships." For a generation, they expanded into new business lines
with cheap government financing and swamped global markets with an
avalanche of goods. That helped trigger overcapacity and falling prices in
several of Korea's primary export industries, including semiconductors,
petrochemicals, computers, autos and ships.

Among the victims is Hyundai Electronics Industries Co., which is
expected to post a loss of 44.6 billion won ( $28.6 million ) this year after
earning 71.1 billion won last year, in part because of dwindling chip prices,
according to ING Baring Securities Ltd. The company held $303 million in
short-term debt as of June and has a net debt-equity ratio of 684%, ING
Baring says.

Water for Domestic Travelers

A Hyundai Electronics spokesman says the company plans to shore up its
capital base by issuing convertible bonds next year. He also says the
company plans to reduce investment in certain areas, which is expected to
improve earnings next year. But he concedes that the company will post
losses this year, especially if the exchange rate stays at current levels. "This
year was the toughest time ... as a credit shortage aggravated plummeting
chip prices ... but we hope to recover next year," he says.

Korean Air Lines, the country's flag carrier and an affiliate of the Hanjin
Group, has been selling aircraft to raise money to offset foreign-exchange
losses and cutting unprofitable routes to cut costs. Korean Air says that
about $5.6 billion of its debt, or 90% of the total, is in U.S. dollars, and
the percentage of seats filled on its international flights has been dwindling.
A nationwide austerity campaign has shamed many Koreans from traveling
overseas.

To cut operating costs, Korean Air Lines no longer serves juice or soda
on its domestic flights. ( Water, coffee and milk are still available,
however. ) Analysts have speculated that the airline may have to merge
with a Korean rival, Asiana Airlines Inc. ( which serves only water on
domestic flights ) , but a Korean Air spokesman denies those rumors. The
spokesman also says the company's high debt is being reduced through
sales of aircraft.

'Korean Way' Sinks a Shipbuilder

Asiana took on a huge debt burden when it expanded aggressively with an
all-new fleet. "Our debt levels aren't unmanageable, although the market's
tight credit situation isn't helping," a spokesman for the airline says. He
added that Asiana's international business has been "seriously affected" by
the current austerity campaign.

Borrowing heavily to invest is what some here call the "Korean way."
That's how Halla Engineering & Heavy Industries Co. developed a
shipbuilding operation from scratch in the early 1990s. Early this month,
only two years after it launched its first vessels, the company filed for court
protection from creditors along with several other Halla companies after
defaulting on debts of 221.2 billion won.

Business is brisk at Korea's remaining yards, but prices are painfully low.
"The outlook for the whole sector is grim," said Jung Jae Heon, senior
manager at shipbuilder Hyundai Heavy Industries Ltd.

Samsung Heavy Industries Co., one of Korea's remaining shipbuilders,
posted losses of 295 billion won last year, 20 billion won of which came
from the shipbuilding division, and is expected to post losses of 173 billion
won and 47 billion won in fiscal 1997 and 1998, respectively, according
to ING Baring. A Samsung Heavy spokesman says the company is trying
to improve earnings by focusing on shipbuilding rather than on other
unprofitable businesses, such as making construction equipment.

Dangerous Cross-Guarantees

By next year, Samsung Heavy hopes to show a profit, the spokesman
says. He adds that the company already has disposed of several
money-losing divisions and shed about 8% of its work force of 9,500 in a
restructuring last year.

The company's biggest vulnerability may be outside its own accounts:
Samsung Heavy has guaranteed 3.1 trillion won of borrowings by sister
company Samsung Aerospace Industries Ltd., which lost 11 billion won in
the first half of this year and 65 billion won in fiscal 1996. On the risks of
cross-guarantees, the Samsung spokesman would say only that the
company is "trying to change this type of corporate structure."

Such cross-corporate loan guarantees bind entire conglomerates together
in webs of debt. In the first half of 1997, for example, Hyundai Engineering
& Construction underwrote 3.3 trillion won in borrowings owed by the
group's heavy industry and auto divisions, according to SBC Warburg
Dillon Read Inc. That would be less worrisome if Hyundai Engineering
weren't facing serious problems of its own. The company, which relies on
Asia and the Korean government for just under half its revenue, is
expected to post losses of 26.1 billion won this year and 220.8 billion won
next year, SBC Warburg says, adding that Hyundai Engineering's debt
burden of four trillion won is equal to 621% of its equity as of 1996.

A Hyundai Engineering spokesman says he expects the company to
perform better next year by tapping markets such as Central Asia and
India, where he foresees potential for public projects. But he concedes
that market conditions locally and abroad will reduce the number of overall
orders.

Return to top of page
Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Nice move last night +2.22%, I suspect due largely to the GOLD sector.

G'Day

I doubt that the S.Korean president would say that. It probably was taken out of context.

However, the Asian crisis and corresponding world financial effect is very severe, that is why we will continue on seeing gold being massacred and discredited in the next little while.

The gold trend is still down I'm afraid, regardless of the buying as the 'paper gold' supply overwhems the market. The stakes are high and gold WILL not be allowed to explode upward any time soon.

The only defence goldbugs have left, is to be RADICAL. That is continue on buying the PHYSICAL ( no certificates, etc ) and avoid debt.

Happy holidays.

haggis--

your self-affirmation ----aye haggis------

was that lifted from a popular science fiction writers book?
it reads plageristically identical.

aye disney-------?!; )

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971223/korea_2ndld_picture_1.html

You gentlemen enjoy a good head-and-shoulders formation? $MEX "at the right shoulder" http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/_charts/achart.htx??source=htx%2Fhttp2_mw&function=achart&VOL_P0=Checked&VOL_P1=BAR&ACHARTCOOKIEID=64D48D4-349FBB1F-40?mit=Get+Chart&ticker=%24mex&charttype=bar?erval_Timeframe=D365&BACKGROUNDCOLOR=FFFFFF

Puetz- Options are tough: You must get the timing right as well as the direction. You've definitely got the direction right on $DJIA, $SPX, and $OEX. Timing? VERY SOON !

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971223/markets_precious_1.html

Long-time veteran precious metals analyst starts his report with a Point & Future chart of LONDON GOLD, going all the way back to 1980. It clearly shows a TRIPLE-BOTTOM at about the $280 level ( 1982, 1985 and the present ) . The last two times it reached Dines Buy Zone, the yellow zoomed to the $500 area:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines122297.html

comments late last night and this morning re the yield curve. I see the
significance and importance of it now. Special thanks to Donald for his
emails to me re his D/G ratio chart. My computer is at work so I can
only post during the Texas business day, I just hope that war does not break out between the Aussies and Yanks on this site as I would have
split loyalties. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.

Can we buy ( or short ) the Korean Index, Hang seng, etc.. as we do do the S&P,Dow,here? If so what are the symbols/names given the instruments? Adrian Day has recomended the Korea Fund ( KF ) on the NYSE however it seems the index as a whole would be a better play; comments?

Russia is operating a multibillion-dollar financial pyramid

that threatens to bring on a collapse on the scale of the

South Korean meltdown but with far greater political

consequences, many experts believe.

Some worry that plans for next week's partial float of the

ruble, Russia's currency, could bring that about.

"There could well be a crisis by January 1," said Keith

Bush, director of Eurasian studies at the Center for Strategic

and International Studies.

Analysts said Russia's notoriously poor tax collections have

been barely half what was expected this year, forcing the

government to rely on short-term bonds, or GKOs, for

financing. These are being offered at interest rates around 45

percent -- down from a high of 60 percent two years ago --

compared with about 6 percent for U.S. Treasury bonds.

http://www.washtimes.com/internatl/internatl1.html

John Disney: Just trying a bit of humour this morning, no ill-will intended. I respect the information on RSA miners presented in your posts as it represents the only detailed information I can garner on the miners, and it appears well-researched. Thank you for this and Merry Christmas.

EB: Too freakin bad about Shaq's wrist ( wicked grin thing ) ~~~~~~~~go gold

I'll have a nog and whiskey waiting for you to celebrate YOUR CALL ( DELIVERED AGES AGO! ) OF $281.50!!!!!! I certainly haven't forgotten this incredible forecast. Do you have a newsletter? Please put me on your list. Merry Christmas to you and you buddy Nostradamus.

Haggis: Thanks for the reply, enjoy your comments, I am interested in receiving your recommedations on OZ miners. Back to you further in the morrow.

THE sense of crisis intensified in Japan yesterday as a senior

policymaker of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party admitted

the danger of systemic problems erupting among financial

institutions and as the Nikkei-225 stock average plunged to its lowest

level in two years.

At the same time, the Ministry of Finance revealed that the declining

trend in non-performing loans at Japanese financial institutions had

been reversed and that the toll is now rising again.

Both LDP and Finance Ministry officials admitted last night that the

official policy of forcing Japanese banks to clean up their balance

sheets may have to be softened in order to ward off what is

developing into a vicious credit crunch. This is bringing an avalanche

of domestic bankruptcies in Japan and also causing banks to cut off

credit lines to Asian borrowers desperate for foreign exchange.

http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/2/nfrnt02.html

Back to the 'deck job'~~~~~~~~Feb.Gold up 1.70 @ 294.40....S+P futures up .80

World CB's losing creditability!

PRESIDENT Suharto has fired four directors of the central

bank and replaced them with two outsiders and two people

from within the bank, said a presidential decree.

President Suharto also appointed a

three-member private sector task force

yesterday to consult with the government

on ways to pull the country out of a

deepening economic crisis.

http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/2/nseas01.html

Mr. Gates Was Going To Be The World's Richest Man...BUT

Mr. Gates: the dawn of this year saw your net worth at $37 BILLION, give or take a few 100 million... let's not quibble. This ranked you second only to the Sultan of Brunnei who possesses $39 BILLION, give or take a bil.

As you are undoubtedly aware your wealth was rapidly closing the gap during the year. But alas, IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE in paper began to catch up to you... whereas, the Sultan of Brunnei has been snapping up gold from the four corners. "How do I know" you might ask? Well, GOLD-EAGLE has propriety analytical Internet software, which allows it to read the source of all accesses to it website domain. Consequently, I am happy to relate the number of hits from the Kingdom of Brunnei has steadily increased during the last six months. And the Sultan is the only guy in his kingdom that has any money to be able to afford an Internet connection... so we know it is the Sultan himself looking at GOLD-EAGLE. Your answer to this information is probably, "SO WHAT?!"

THIS IS WHAT MR. GATES: While the Sultan of Brunnei has been aggressively accumulating GOLD, the mainstay of your wealth, MICROSOFT stock, has developed a ominious chart pattern, which has dire ramifications for the value of your one stock portfolio. Please see the following:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/http2_data/squote.htx?source=htx%2Fhttp2_mw&ticker=msft&tables=chart_table&format=fractions

As you sadly can see, if the 124 support level is taken out, IT'S KATIE BAR THE DOOR, as your net worth will plunge, possibly making you a "relative pauper" in relation to the Sultan of Brunnei, who wisely continues to read GOLD-EAGLE, and to snap up GOLD... and who knows, maybe even gold and silver stocks.

With the greatest respect may I suggest you also take a gander at an interesting comparison of RCA ( 1925-1929 ) vs MICROSOFT ( 1993-1997 ) :
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/rca_msft.html

To make a long story short, Mr. Gates, I recommend you trade some of your paper in for GOLD... and you STILL may beat the Sultan of Brunnei.

G'Day,

I do not read science fiction, too much of an American influence!

Have you ever thought about wearing rubber or sandpaper underwear, it will help you keep alert. Try it!!!

Aye, Haggis

Didnt mean to hit that button so soon. Korea's president said he had know idea the country was in such a mess. Dont you just love that assesment from the new guy. They are going to default. Will gold go up I would think so but the solution to all of this is for the US dollar to go down big time. Will Japan hit the markets over the holidays with intervention? I think they will.

I, Studio.R, special servant assigned to keep the peace within the royal harem, have been instructed to convey to you a royally warm greeting from his Highness. And to also convey his personal gratitude for your gold recommendation...and, further, his highest regards for the Gold Eagle website. His Highness does not chance a crap in the morning until he logs on to GOLD EAGLE....which he notes as being a moving experience. Again, I humbly convey his warmest wishes to you and yours for this holy season.

nomercy, I think the country would benefit more if the central bankers could sack Suharto and all of his bootlickers.

G'Day.............normal Australian greeting.

Aye...............yes in Scots.

Haggis............a Scottish - well its either highly cultured, OR rough as guts. Believe it or not, it IS a nickname given to me by some Aussies when I first arrived here - there was a bit of a culture discrepency, but htey have now adjusted to my ways.

Cherokee, you should know by now that for any public speaking engagement, you should get drunk beforehand and wing it.

Aye, Haggis

Just ordered another 10oz of Maples from Blanchard ( 2 weeks wait - argh! ) . Bart, can Kitco give any better response for orders from the States?

thanks,
Herr Spuds

Wow!

You are kidding about the Sultan of Brunei checking Kitco each day,
aren't you ? Aren't you ? Are you ? You're not kidding are you ?
You're serious ! !

G'Day,

My pleasure. I hope you have not left all your Christmas shopping until the 24 December. Compilments of the season to you. Merry Xmas.

Aye, Haggis

Avalon ( @ vronsky re The Sultan of Brunei ) : I ASSURE YOU GOLD-EAGLE receives WEEKLY visits from BRUNEI DARUSSALAM... and the weekly access rate is increasing. BTW, testament to the growing global interest in precious metals is the fact GOLD-EAGLE is frequented by 103 countries, cuurently at about 300,000 accesses PER MONTH... and increasing by 27% COMPOUNDED MONTHLY -- See for yourself:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/FLAGS.html

Gold up 2.55 , Silver up .10 !!!

Vronsky: Loved your web site showing all the flags. Very colorful,
informative ( what a reference for international flags ) ,impressive

Vronsky: Loved your web site showing all the flags. Very colorful,
informative ( what a reference for international flags ) ,impressive

I missed Arden's report yesterday. Will somone give me the update.

Thanks in advance.

Gold 293.70 +2.60 10:59
Silver 6.17 +0.12 10:58
Let's hear it for the good guys!!

GOLD CORNER - 24-HOUR TRADING

Major Gold Trading Centers Around the World. Many Gold price links, including closing bullion and gold coin prices. Also shows live GOLD TRADING in London, Singapore, Tokyo & the COMEX:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

GOLD CORNER - 24-HOUR TRADING

Major Gold Trading Centers Around the World. Many Gold price links, including closing bullion and gold coin prices. Also shows live GOLD TRADING in London, Singapore, Tokyo & the COMEX:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

First I would like to thank Realistic for posting the Comex data. Somedays I am either in the field or way too busy building my shareholders assets to post.

Yesterday comex warehouse gold fell about 59,000 oz and the eligible stocks rose about 17,000 oz ( who would write contracts here? )

Comex warehouse silver stocks plunged 4.9 million oz - we should really see something in silver prices if this keeps up!

ShaQ.............whooooo?!?!???!!? more like who needs 'im......

http://www.nba.com/games9798/971222/lalhou/recap.html

away...to root for the champs-to-be

allfan

go gold.....er.....uh.......hmmmmm....

....oh and....Mr. Sultan Sir. eblm@utech.net You can reach me here in case you want to spread around any X-mas cheer....if you know what I mean $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!!!!!!!!$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!!!!!ohmy...

ALL WHO CELEBRATE HANUKKAH: AS Hanukkah starts tonight, I want to wish all who celebrate it a most happy and blsessed holiday. May prices increase just as the new candle bring more light to the world each day.

ALL WHO CELEBRATE HANUKKAH: AS Hanukkah starts tonight, I want to wish all who celebrate it a most happy and blsessed holiday. May prices increase just as the new candle every day brings more light to the world.

Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, XAY & HUI all are orbital on the Intra-Day Charts:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/intra-day.html

Can anyone tell me anything about the stock UPT ( where it's traded, etc? ) Its price is listed on PointCast, but I havn't been able to locate any company information.

-TIA

This prediction gains tremendous credibility after you read the credentials of its author:

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

If we go back to an earlier section of this paper, we observed that after 1971, when the artificial pressure was lifted from gold prices that prices advanced to a peak of 24 times the old price and settled around approximately 10 times the old price. No two events in any market develop precisely the same, but just as an
exercise, if something similar happens this time, gold prices might peak near $8,400.00, and settle around $3,500.00 an ounce.

The remote possibility that these numbers can be correct, is enough evidence to make it easy to understand why the central bankers and high government officials around the world want to denigrate, denounce, discard, disown and dislike gold, plus keep prices low. It makes one want to take time to consider what the implications of anything remotely resembling this happening might be. The last time gold had been held down artificially for 37 years. This time, so far, it has only been 17, which may lessen the next rise. On the other hand we have asset markets that have reached such lofty levels, where no less an authority than the FED Chairman has described the situation, as long as a year ago, as "Irrational Exuberance". So who can tell? Let's not lose sight, while we are pondering the question, of the trillions and trillions of fiat megabyte dollars, yen, marks, and what have you, that are whizzing around the world electronically every minute of every hour of every day. They have to end up buying something, and it might just be gold one of these days.

Part II of his mind-blowing essay is located at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/jmiller122097.html

Oh my... a double post. But they're slightly different. Live and learn.

Vronksy; while I enjoy your posts, I must take note of your recent post concerning the Kingdom of Brunnei:

#1: "GOLD-EAGLE has propriety analytical Internet software, which allows it to read the source of all accesses to it website domain."

This is a red herring; "propriety analytical Internet software" shuts down verification. There must be many commercial HTML or Java code fragments which you can buy to perform this analysis. If not, may I suggest you are selling the wrong product ( gold, instead of Java code ) .

#2: "Consequently, I am happy to relate the number of hits from the Kingdom of Brunnei has steadily increased during the last six months. And the Sultan is the only guy in his kingdom that has any money to be able to afford an Internet connection."

A cursory search of the net didn't find ANY internet addresses for The Kingdom of Brunnei-Darusalem. I'll keep looking; it seems to me a bit presumptive to claim that the Sultan of Brunnei is the only chap there with an internet address. Anyone else help out here?

VRONSKY: Has it ever occurred to you that perhaps ANOTHER is really the Sultan of Dubai? Maybe he posts on Kitco whenever he has a little time off from the affairs of state.

Don't yell at me, please. This was John's idea.

Since I answered the Durocher question, I'll try your next question - Durocher's wife = Arlene Dahl. Remember her from refrigerator commercials when I was a kid.

Got one for you. Who said, "No wonder nobody eats here, it's so crowded."

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971223/mexico_stocks_slip_a_1.html

Yogi Berra?

Irene Dunne

Silver's superiority to Gold's investment potential. Quoted from an analyst

"instead of cash, some fund managers have switched
to stocks that primarily produce silver, a metal that
has gained 25% this year, a marked contrast to gold.
With gold threatened by the possibility of continued
central-bank sales, silver presents an alternative
commodity without a looming supply overhang. In
fact, registered silver inventories have declined this
year amid heavy fund interest and increased demand
in India, where the jewelry industry has been buying
the metal heavily. "Silver looks a lot better right
now," says Daniel B. Leonard, senior vice president
and portfolio manager of Invesco Strategic Gold Fund
in Denver.

plagarized from Speeds earlier post. IMNHO, Mr. Leonard is correct. If the drawdown numbers in COMEX inventory are to be believed, we have some incredibly explosive potential ahead in Silver prices. More of my money went into Silver last week, and more still will go in this week.

Very good. At least Garogiola said that he said it.

Sunshine Mining finally on the move. Up 13% today. It's been a disappointment that it has responded so slowly to Silver's explosive move, SSRIF, the same. Perhaps this will be the beginning of a long term ultra bull move, for SSC. 1998, should be Verryyyyy interesting for Silver investors. I know I'm happy already , and the year has yet to begin....

All I know is, the Niners rule, especially when they face the pitiful Denver Bronco's!

Regarding the overwhelming firepower of former ennemies "god" had only 2 options left,either to play the of 007 in Goldfinger or turn to guerilla
tactics proven to be effective in old jungle war.First option seemed unrealistique so the second option had been chosen.When peace seemed to
become a possibility, a big problem arised.Apearing in the open could mean instant death as regard to a lack of firingpower in close combat.
The main problems were a languagebarrier not known by the ennemy during
wartime. ( English is my third language ) Translating is very timeconsuming
On top of that an extreem slow typingrate.All of this in a tight timeschedule due to outside private and professionel activities.
But god choose to take the risk because the interest of all is to promote local products and make huge benefits.
What if the amount of members grew the same way as it did in the US stockmarket... ( Although a non hostile and understandeble environment will be necessary.. )
Also strategies could be found to infiltrate other channels and promote local products. ( I have noticed that the scientifique knowledge of some members could turn copper into gold and convince anybody... )
As to the matter of US past desertactivities,these informations have been circulating on the old continent and, as all local information they have to be verified twice.But remember information about secret armies in the past...Maiby if the public had known befor,many lives could have been saved.
Concerning kiwi complaints about explosive activities on a small island."God agrees completely with them.But lets not forget that activities were destined for the creation of computermodels for future theoretical tests.Oncle Sam and Queen countries posessing those computermodels refused to share them....
But our main ennemy remains the CB 's ( governments ) controlling artificially prices of local products, but I am sure it want last.
I guess this has been discust many times by others.
So I will try to make from time to time according to my timeschedule a pertinent observation?????? but allow me the time to answer.
God is going to have dinner now.


PS:God disappoints........so did Jesus!!!!

Strad Master ( VRONSKY ) : "Has it ever occurred to you that perhaps ANOTHER is really the Sultan of Dubai?"

You gotta point there! The Sultan of Dubai or the Sultan of Brunei Darussalam, or the Sultan of No Se Donde... In any case the Kitco poster using the handle "ANOTHER" is very knowledgeable of the Crude Oil, Gold, Currencies and industries. The last time I received an email from Sheik Abu Bekr al-Rashid, he suggested that ANOTHER knows the Middle-Eastern scene TOO WELL!

My wife says the movie actress married to Leo Durocher was Lorraine Day

I read your dec 22 15:21 and dec 20 01:57 postings ... I agree with
you. It seems that the asian currencies lost some more. They
won't trade until later today ... it will be interesting
to see what happens to spot prices.

It is easy to look up old postings at
http://www.acsys.com/~hong/pubfiles/kitco/by-id

It only has Dec 97 postings, for now, because i am not totally
happy with the presentation ... any comments would be appreciated
at hong@acsys.com

For Donald

Your wife wins my everlasting respect for that answer

For all

Stocks I hold - current price versus lows hit early Dec.

Wes Areas Plus 27%

avgold plus 95%

e-dagga plus 38%

beatrix plus 29%

Rangold plus 95%

Evander plus 20%

Randfontein plus 20%

Northm Plat + 0 ( yuk )

Harmony plus 6% ( yuk )

Amalia Plus 10% ( yuk )

In Australia havent looked for a while- dont know

prices- will check later. I hold

Ramsgate

Carpenter

Delta

Took profits january s&p puts for about 50% profit

Merry christmas haggis and skylark - Im sure you have

done much better than this - Ill just have to cope.

For comparison Barrick up to 18.125 from 15.5 for

surprising 17 % profit. Maybe effect of munk shareholders

buying stock back. Who knows -

Should some guy ( lgb or equivalent ) say yes but how much

were you down on these stock before they turned - answer is

not much - if you read my posts I was out of RSA stocks

long ago with the exception of a big stack of e-dagga - the paper

loss on which was softened by its 30% dividend yield.

I think your wife is right. Did L. Day do refrig. commercials in early TV?

Forbes columnist and money manager Martin Sosnoff -- who has one of the best long-term stock market forecasting records around and was very bullish when the market corrected early this year -- is sounding a distinctly cautious if not outright bearish note in his recent columns. He is a seasoned veteran and has been playing the game much longer than people like Abby Cohen or Ralph Accompura.

When Sosnoff talks smart people listen.

VP's roasting by an open firrrre, Maple Leaf's nipping at your nooooose..

I am a new comer to Kitco site & net and would just like to comment on
the insightful look at Luck and the human condition in your post of DEC
23at 02:13.

I too looked at J.Granville,H.Ruff,H.Brown,Rees-Mogg and of course who
could forget the great sear Dr.Ravi Batra! All their books set upon my
shelves worth about as much as the paper they are written on. Did you
know that before Granville went big time he peddled publications on how
to win at bingo? How many "Bingo billionaires" do you know? I find that
the books of Allen and Galbraith give great insight perhaps because they
look back and not forward, although I must admit that "Blood in the
streets" was very well do. Your choice of games indictes you have done
your homework on gambling and if indeed you win 4 out of 5 then you are
very skillful. I know the house percentage on every game but still play
the awful keno at 23%HP!

This Kitco group are most interesting, all point of view here, I run a
home office type business and sometimes cabin fever set in, I miss the
comradeship of the office environs. Kitco can be habit forming, I have
investments in all so all info is good.
Season greeting to all..have a happy whatever your persuasion.

Emerald Heights

In Tuesday trading the south Korean stock market was mercilessly pounded down 7.5%, while its currency ( won ) LOST 14% IN ONE DAY!

ASIA BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARDSPOT - TOKYO BUYING GOLD...

The NIKKEI has plunged nearly 10% during the last two trading days, reflecting insurmountable domestic economic and financial difficulties, all exacerbated by the all-encompassing and relentless Domino Effect contagion of Southeast ASIA. TO save their financial hides ALL ASIA will desperately seek refuge in GOLD per centuries long tradition.

The ORACLE of the Orient long absent from our website has returned with a vengeance in his scathing rebuttal of Central Bank spewing that gold is dead, that gold is no longer a hedge against economic and currency chaos, etc. etc. His succinct and extremely well-documented opinion concludes that Central Bank braying is RUBBISH, RUBBISH AND MORE RUBBISH.

The ORACLE proves beyond a shadow of doubt that the only defense southeast Asians had... AND WILL HAVE - against the on-going currency chaos, stock market turmoil and the regions crumbling bank system is to invest in GOLD. The staunchest and most fanatical anti-GOLDBUGS are obliged to concede to the irrefutable evidence that GOLD is the ONLY SAFE HARBOR vis--vis the looming and devastating Domino Effect engulfing the area:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle121597.html

John Disney. My wife says the correct spelling is Laraine Day. Important if you are doing a crossword puzzle. Dave in CO. She does not recall the ice box commercials. Could you be confusing her with Bess Meyerson who did the ice box commercials on the Ed Sullivan show?

Korea's New Pres. Jung"hints" last night of possible DEFAULT results
in the unprecedented step by World Bank to give Korea 3 Bill US$
TODAY rather than wait till new year, to "help out". Reports indicate
they will watch the Korean situation Daily ( more Printing US$ )
As I commented last week THEY will be forced to inflate and faster
than you can imagine.

Thank you Emerald and merry Christmas to you. What type of business do you run? Yes that keno game has a pretty nasty house percentage! I must admit I've filled out a Keno ticket or two during breakfast at Lake Tahoe though!

What I love about poker, is that you're not playing the house, you're pitting your skills against other players, your judgement against theirs, your strategy and rationale against the table, your ability to "read" a situation, "read" your opponents play, your intuitive "feel", your ability to calculate odds, potential plays a few moves in advance, etc. To me, it's more strategic than chess, and a lot more fun. It's almost the purest form of raw capitalism you can have! And of course there's the rush of adrenalin when you DO make a big hand in a big pot!

And contrary to conventional opnion, "luck" has almost no place in who goes home with the money. Thus, the discussion of earlier this morning. It's a little like fishing. I've read that 90% of the fish are caught by 10% of the fishermen! ( And that squares with personal observation... )


Ahhh, but I digress, the best fishing/poker play right now, is to put you're money on our old friend Silver! ( IMNHO )

I'd still love to see some GoldBug answer the question...this theory of Asian flight to Gold due to chaos and currency devaluation looks reasonable on paper and all...yet the precise OPPOSITE is what is occuring. They are selling, not buying..even when faced with further downturns in their marketplace, further currency devaluation, further banking problems, further economic upheavels.

How do you square these authoritative pronouncements on investor psychology of today, with the reality that the precise OPPOSITE of what you predicted is happening on a large scale? Asian dumping of Gold, not buying. Does reality mean nothing? Theory and /or historical trends that obviously are not being followed today, carries more signifigance than the actual data of what IS occuring in these situations?

I'm a bit perplexed why you're lumping Joe Granville with Rees-Mogg. Rees-Mogg edited the Times of London and vice-chaired the BBC before he wrote his book. Really shabby, that. What's the point?

If you're driving a car and someone says, "Hey, you're about to go over that cliff up ahead", one expects that you will adjust your steering accordingly. Alot of financial books are like that; you read 'em never expecting the scenarios to play out. I haven't become a billionaire yet, so maybe my opinions don't count. You got yours?

In light of the stock market meltdown and currency chaos in Korea yesterday - while Tokyo markets were closed - there is good probability the morning sun in Japan will be awash in RED.

Japan's banking exposure to south Korea is extremely high. Furthermore, its heavy investments there must necessarily be suffering the same loses as the Koreans. Not that the Nippons do not have enough problems at home, the Korean debacle may well be the financial "straw" breaking the Japanese Banking System.

There is little doubt the BOJ will be using all its financial resources TONIGHT IN A FUTILE ATTEMPT to check the looming TSUNAMI...

Only GOLD promises to serve as a financial life-raft before the selling onslaught of the coming tidal waves of dumping all that is paper...

Come now, Allan Greenspan is far more terrified of inflation than any of the other "evils" that might imperil his FED policy. He has demonstarted this numerous times, heading off inflation before it even thinks about rearing it's ugly head. He's going to start inflating now? I think not. He'll keep the money supply within the FEDS target window just as he has done for years. Besides, isn't DEFLATION what everyone is so worried about with the worldwide economic slowdown in progress?

to donald

Im gonna check than larraine spelling

to all

Ag/au ratio has fallen back to its low of 47.1.

Now just suppose that I might possibly be right on the

fibo point, and we get a 50 % retracement on the

ratio. That would put the ratio at about 61. With

silver at 6.22, that would put gold at 379$.

Gee, the run up could be fueled by short covering

plus unwinding long plat/short gold position plus

long silver/short gold positions.

As long as I dreaming .........

I think his point was clear, namely, if you've read one sensation mongering snake oil salemen's Gloom and Doom book, you've read em all. This couls easily apply to Newsletters from GoldBug "Investment analysts" as well. The same tired scenarios, modified slightly, and recycled year after year..to teh great detriment of the pocketbooks of the "faithful".

The economy in the U.S. and worldwide has changed drastically, as has the technology which drives it. Those who don't adapt, and try to hold on to old tired, irrelevant concepts will be cruched in the MAW of massive change. ( I refuse to use the word "Pair o' dime shit..I mean SHIFT..but if ever it applied, this would be an example )

Gold will always have intrinsic value, and some link to monetary systems. That link however, will continue diminishing in importance as it has been for decades. The GoldBug "Cure" of Gold backed currency, would be far worse that the "disease" of debt and fiat currency.

LGB: Make a proper distinction between governments, businesses and individuals. Asian governments have not purchased much gold, choosing instead to model western deficit spending. Businesses also, have modeled the western practices of credit and debt expansion. Individuals in Asia have purchased gold as a store of value for thousands of years. Now they are using that asset to pay bills. Had they not purchased gold, had they instead kept all of their wealth in paper, they would be far worse off than they already are. Governments did not tie their currencies to gold and now they are suffering the consequences. Businesses and banks expanded debt and credit following western practices and now they are bankrupt. Individuals with some gold can eat. Those with much gold can begin anew, if their prudence is not punished by the envious. Watch what happens when these hard working people recover from this debacle. India has set the trend by allowing bank accounts to be denominated in dollars, rupees or gold and all pay interest. This sort of even-handed approach will be adopted widely, imho.

If we accept that government bonds and currencies are at best an illusion of wealth, and that stock markets trading at 5 times book value may be over-priced in view of falling profits and currency upheaval, then the only investment alternative is gold. Realizing this, governments have driven down the price of gold. In order for the world to continue to believe in the government promoted illusion, the price of gold must continue to fall. If the world were not on the edge of an economic collapse, the price of gold would not be so low. An analysis by John Kutyn:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn121797.html

I realize I said I would not respond to you until you answered, Does
money grow on trees? But I will just answer you this time.
From the way you post, it is obvious to me ar least that you have
NEVER experienced the death of a curency. What you suggest
the Asians do is since they are falling rapidly from their currency
cliffs, is to throw away the parachute ( GOLD ) that is going to assure
them a "SAFE" landing, because as you say it will add to their weight
and make them fall faster if they held on to it. What nonsense!
When human beings see their paper currency, ( which after all represents
amonsgt numerous things, purchasing power, status, stability, food,
shelter and on and on ) collapse, falling , by the minute, they hold on
to their GOLD because as I said is their parachute to ecomomic
safety. Yes Goverments can confiscate GOLD BUT AT THE NEW!!!!
RATE thereby retaining your purchasing power. If it happened to the
Huang, the question for you is why not the US$?. It HAS hapened
to the US$ before it will happen again. So why should these people
while falling off currency cliffs throw away their parachute for more
paper currency. May you or any one else ever have to live thru what
most there are living thru, even though some in this group would wish it upon you for good reason.

Speed: You might be right and teaching me something but my view is that individuals in Asian who are living their normal lives are not selling gold. When a country's currency is devalued it is devalued throughout the country. So a mortgagee payment remains the same, a pound of potatoes remains the same, a loaf of bread remains the same. Imported products and products that have a "world" price may rise. Not to defend the corruption that has lead to the Asian problems but the average persons' bills are the same as before the devaluation. No need to sell gold.

The probability of a recession in the US in the next four quarters is now about 20% and rising. As liquidity needs pump up short rates, the yield curve becomes flatter. The spread between 3 month and 10 treasuries is now 26 bps. See the following for the New York Fed's chart relating chances of a recession to this difference.

http://www.efmoody.com/investments/yieldcurve.html

Will the Fed print and keep printing? I think so. To let the US fall into recession along with the depressed state of the rest of the world, would be a disaster. They simply can't risk short US rates getting out of hand. Print, print, print.

Any figures on the amount seized in the '30's?

Let's get to the fundamental place where we differ, instead of beating around the bush.

Yes, Asians inflated tehir economies too fast, gave away loans too easily, expanded their bubble economies too quickly. They followed a path that we have already learned to avoid to a reasoanble extent. ( post S&L scandals anyway ) Asians will learn from their folly, and adjust their economic policies accordingly, rather then throwing up their hands and fleeing to Gold.

But let's get to the real issue. You GoldBugs put your faith in a commodity, believing cynically that the worst is always right around the corner.

"Paperbugs" believe that intangible assets are more valuable than tangible ones. Specifically, the U.S. economy will continue to flourish because of American workers excellence, ingenuity, work ethic, enterpranarial spirit, free and democratic society, creativity, and willingness to take risks in order to see the rewards. This is hwy we have the mightiest economy, the most prosperous corporations, the strongest businesses, the most stable Governement, the mightiest currency, on the planet.

"Paperbugs" do indeed "create something from nothing" by fiat. They are the driving force behind the incredible successes that define life in the 20th century, not just in the U.S., but worldwide.

GoldBugs are the opposite of all these things. Cynical, backward looking, non adapting, unproductive, negative, Gloom and Doom, destructive instead of contructive. Given such a world view, they run to Gold as a safe haven, a security blanket to protect them from teh ravishes of Governments, societies, economies, and politicians. They don't believe in taking the bull by the horns and working within the very system that has provided them with everything they have, to improve and refine that system and make it even better. Instead they look for...yes even HOPE for the day it all melts down in an Apocolyptic collapse. A sad philosophy of life, is ever there was one.

Some of us will continue to create and contribute to our society and our country ( in my own sphere this means Engineering the satellite communications for future internet bandwidth expansion, involvement in local school system and local Govt., and many other activities ) .The Puetz's of the world on the other hand, contribute nothing but destructive verbiage to the society from which they leache their living.
Making incredibly ignorant and assanine statements like "I have no loyalty to my country ) .

GoldBugs will continue to whine, complain, attack, prognosticate Armegeeddon, and fail to genuinely appreciate all that our mighty economy ( which is reall just a function of this system and their fellow man ) has provided to them. Clueless.

Nothing wrong with identifying problems and trying to fix them. That's what I do for a living in fact. However, for GoldBugs, the problems themselves become the icon to worship, not the solutions.

This is the primary philisophical difference between GoldBugs and those who believe in this country and it's economy.

AG is now forced to inflate, he does not want to do this believe me.
But the alternative, DEFAULTS by foreingners of US$ loans and
sale of US$ bonds would quickly turn into a vicious deflationary spiral
world wide. AG will inflate very slowly, ( whilest saying he's not ) just to
keep the paper game going, there is no other way he is going to allow
massive DEFAULTS.This is what is known in economic circles as the knifedge of Inflation/Deflation, and read some on history of paper currency, you will see this is a rather predictable outcome in order to
keep the paper game going .
Let us hope he succeeds and we can keep the paper going for
some time to come, with much higher GOLD prices of course.

If you had lost your job you'd probably pay your bills by digging into your savings or investments. The Asians are paying their bills by selling their treasured gold. They don't want to sell it, but they have no choice.
They probably won't be able to afford to purchase gold until their economy is strong enough to supply high paying jobs.

Selby: You are right to question the premises inherent to this thread. It would be correct then, to determine first if any selling of gold has been done per LGB's assertion. Secondly, if gold is being sold, what is purchased? Most Asian countries are very dependent on imported oil for example and can only purchase oil or refined products with hard currency. Hasn't the current crisis caused an increase in unemployment? What do the unemployed use to buy food? gasoline? etc. Those that have stored wealth in gold have seen their savings appreciate against the local currency and can survive longer than those who just saved paper. Thirdly, wouldn't it make sense to sell some gold for paper and then buy producing assets ( land, rentals, etc. ) in preparation for the recovery phase? I would be interested in hearing from people in these countries as to what is really going on.

LGB: I agree with you about the intangibles. They are what makes any country great. They made this country great ON A GOLD STANDARD! I think you are irrationally exhuberant about the U.S. having learned anything from the S&L crisis. Human nature is the same all over the globe and hasn't changed in 6000 years. I should think the current crop of politicians would make that transparently obvious.

Selby: You are right to question the premises inherent to this thread. It would be correct then, to determine first if any selling of gold has been done per LGB's assertion. Secondly, if gold is being sold, what is purchased? Most Asian countries are very dependent on imported oil for example and can only purchase oil or refined products with hard currency. Hasn't the current crisis caused an increase in unemployment? What do the unemployed use to buy food? gasoline? etc. Those that have stored wealth in gold have seen their savings appreciate against the local currency and can survive longer than those who just saved paper. Thirdly, wouldn't it make sense to sell some gold for paper and then buy producing assets ( land, rentals, etc. ) in preparation for the recovery phase? I would be interested in hearing from people in these countries as to what is really going on.

LGB: I agree with you about the intangibles. They are what makes any country great. They made this country great ON A GOLD STANDARD! I think you are irrationally exhuberant about the U.S. having learned anything from the S&L crisis. Human nature is the same all over the globe and hasn't changed in 6000 years. I should think the current crop of politicians would make that transparently obvious.

Selby: You are right to question the premises inherent to this thread. It would be correct then, to determine first if any selling of gold has been done per LGB's assertion. Secondly, if gold is being sold, what is purchased? Most Asian countries are very dependent on imported oil for example and can only purchase oil or refined products with hard currency. Hasn't the current crisis caused an increase in unemployment? What do the unemployed use to buy food? gasoline? etc. Those that have stored wealth in gold have seen their savings appreciate against the local currency and can survive longer than those who just saved paper. Thirdly, wouldn't it make sense to sell some gold for paper and then buy producing assets ( land, rentals, etc. ) in preparation for the recovery phase? I would be interested in hearing from people in these countries as to what is really going on.

LGB: I agree with you about the intangibles. They are what makes any country great. They made this country great ON A GOLD STANDARD! I think you are irrationally exhuberant about the U.S. having learned anything from the S&L crisis. Human nature is the same all over the globe and hasn't changed in 6000 years. I should think the current crop of politicians would make that transparently obvious.

EK: You might be right but I haven't heard of any massive sales of small amounts of gold in Asia. I doubt if I was in Asia and recently unemployed if I would start selling gold. Since it has gone up in recent weeks it would be the last thing I would sell. Don't forget socialism by other names is the norm and there are many food and other "hand outs" for those that qualify in such economies. I think it will be months before they start pawning their jewelry

Agree with your comments 100%.

The only thing new is the history we dont already know. The last death of a currency ( for a major economy ) was Germany around 1930, when people were pushing wheelbarrows full of cash to the grocery store.

Didnt this inflation and economic crisis result in the emergence of Hitler and the Nazis? Didnt these evil people rise to power by promising to solve all of Germanys economic woes? Anyone know comparisons of the 1920s Germany to any nations today?

Gold Schmold. Silver up 21 cents and pushing further into 9 year high territory ( according to Kitco chart which ignores certain anamolous blips uo we had in the market along the way ) . SSC and PAASF up 5.5% and 6.5%.

Silver is gleaming and becoming more beautiful all the time.....

AS the Yen rallied so did the metals. This is a good sign. As I posted yesterday when gold rallied even as the dollar did we are getting close to the good times once again.

The reason silver is up so much today is that I just dumped my Silver Standard last week. Any thoughts on why this DOG fails to respond? Maybe just tax-loss selling, or the failure to meet the goal of 250 mil ounces by year end? ( ya they still have a week ) .

And since it is Christmas Eve ( morning ) already here, HAPPY HOLIDAYS.

Long-time veteran precious metals analyst starts his report with a Point & Future chart of LONDON GOLD, going all the way back to 1980. It clearly shows a TRIPLE-BOTTOM at about the $280 level ( 1982, 1985 and the present ) . The last two times it reached Dines Buy Zone, the yellow zoomed to the $500 area:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines122297.html

Speed: I wasn't questioning the premises inherent to this thread just the timing of expectations. It has only been a few months since the real mess in Asia started. It takes a while to get to the stage of selling the wife's earrings. As well, the need for gasoline and imported goods drops like a rock as I recall when faced with unemployment. Further those who were the ones making a "golden" livelihood from the boom are the least likely to have held the "old fashioned" view of gold anyway. Imagine 10 years of boom times beyond your belief with prosperity all around you. Not a period when holding on to the Old folks views of buying a wasting asset like gold would have had much impact on your discretionary purchases. Eat drink and be merry--and now the good times are all gone --for what % of the Thai population. Those who were the majority I assume --and knew prosperity as long days in sewing mills instead of the rice patties --will continue to make the same shoddy ill fitting/partly finished junk that the dollar stores have been selling all along. The newly unemployed white collars will start scheming about the gold candle sticks in another 4-5 months I think.

Year 2000 the German hyperinflation reached its peak in 1923 when the
a new mark was issued to replace the hyperinflated edition.

LGB we don't place our faith in a commodity. We believe in individual
rights one of which is the right to own property. This right is a corollary of the right to life. Gold is necessary to any properly functioning economic system because it serves as a protector of property
rights from confiscatory government monetary policies. You on the other
hand place your faith in the goodwill of central planners and the money
manipulators running the central banks of the world. I will continue
to advocate gold and you are of course free to advocate the cause of the
manipulators. History will judge which position is correct.

This prediction gains tremendous credibility after you read the credentials of its author:

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

If we go back to an earlier section of this paper, we observed that after 1971, when the artificial pressure was lifted from gold prices that prices advanced to a peak of 24 times the old price and settled around approximately 10 times the old price. No two events in any market develop precisely the same, but just as an
exercise, if something similar happens this time, gold prices might peak near $8,400.00, and settle around $3,500.00 an ounce.

The remote possibility that these numbers can be correct, is enough evidence to make it easy to understand why the central bankers and high government officials around the world want to denigrate, denounce, discard, disown and dislike gold, plus keep prices low. It makes one want to take time to consider what the implications of anything remotely resembling this happening might be. The last time gold had been held down artificially for 37 years. This time, so far, it has only been 17, which may lessen the next rise. On the other hand we have asset markets that have reached such lofty levels, where no less an authority than the FED Chairman has described the situation, as long as a year ago, as "Irrational Exuberance". So who can tell? Let's not lose sight, while we are pondering the question, of the trillions and trillions of fiat megabyte dollars, yen, marks, and what have you, that are whizzing around the world electronically every minute of every hour of every day. They have to end up buying something, and it might just be gold one of these days.

Part II of his mind-blowing essay is located at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/jmiller122097.html

Gold may be down vs the $US, but in Thailand it doubled when the Baht fell by 50%. What better time to sell an investment than after it has risen 100%!

You are right. You were right last year about this time too, as I recall, cautioning that gold might not skyrocket as many of us thought. I can't seem to get through to this page very well, slow ISP or something, BBL.

Cheers

Anybody who is short the silver and gold is nuts! They have been successfully testing support and NOT been found 'wanting'. Until that day arrives, keep you feet in, or GET in! The least you should be doing, given the currency 'malais', is to be stocking up on some take-home physical! 'What goes around, comes around!'. We are all ONE BIG 'happy family', you know. We also all share in ALL the problems!

How can you put words in my mouth that state the precise OPPOSITE of what I said? I made it quite clear that it's the "Individual" in a FREE and democratic society ( which certainly includes individual property rights ) like this one, coupled with a culture and political system that encourages our involvement and participation, that creates the economic strength and wealth that surrounds us.

This is putting my faith in Central planners and CB's?? Puuhhleasse? If you must make your points, kindly, don't resort to such convoluted and tortured twisting of my clearly stated point of view.

TZADEAK, I answered your question in detail already a few days ago. Yes indeedy, money DOES grow on trees and I'm damned glad it does. If the FED didn't break from Gold standard, and grow the money supply as it has, we'd still be mired in the dark ages, going through depressions, and generally in cycles of abject poverty and starvation...just as we were when we remained on the precious "Gold standard".

The reason we're now the world's strongest and most advances economy/democracy, INCLUDES the important factor that we have grown our money supply to allow enterpreneurs, expanding businesses, individuals with goals and dreams, builders, dreamers, etc etc et al, the chance to get the loans to build the most prosperous nation on earth, If we go too far with this, we get Asia. If we do it right ( which it appears AG has been doing pretty damned well ) we have the prosperity and breakthrough economy, the scientific breakthroughs, the medical technology, the space communications, the high tech, revolution, the job base, the corporations, the UNQUESTIOABLY strongest, healthiest economy in the world!

This is just plain fact, and why someone would like to revert to the dark ages of backward poverty and misery we had under the Gold standard escapes me entirely.

daddadadahadadadah, bumbumbum.

can anybody tell me if the metals markets are open on Wed & Fri. this week. In Asia & the U.S. my e-mail is air@2air-inc.com Thank you

can anybody tell me if the metals markets are open on Wed & Fri. this week. In Asia & the U.S. my e-mail is air@2air-inc.com Thank you

"Sky Rocket" Spot Price. 8-o!

can anybody tell me if the metals markets are open on Wed & Fri. this week. In Asia & the U.S. my e-mail is air@2air-inc.com Thank you

LGB -- NO ONE is 'free' in a debt-based economic system! Even IF I made ALL my purchases in cash, my savings are being debased by inflation, which is caused by debasement of the dollars. Why I store gold! Just think of what it'll cost to retire, and the years beyond. Think of the cost of the new pickup truck vs. ten rears ago for the equivalent! HAR! Savings? Why bother? We are now well into the speculative phase, where it has become the 'whole house' or nothing, because nothing else has any meaning. And you should also make yourself aware of the distinction between Democracy and Republic. Purhaps then you'll see that democracy is essentially rule by the 'whim' of the day, I.E., the mob, or by the pleasure of the 'Legislature' of the day. SWELL! I'll take my GOD given rights any day. In that stead I'll stand!

To say that the switch to fiat currency is the cause of all the technology and high level of consumption that we enjoy today is ludicrous and flies in the face of history. Electricity, the telephone, airplanes, automobiles, the modern mail service, and many other things which make this the age of consumption were discovered or invented around the turn of the century. LONG BEFORE NIXON TOOK US OFF THE GOLD STANDARD! Representational currency, or fiat, allows the central bank to balance the supply of money with current liquidity needs, yes. But it also allows short sighted politicians to attempt to crank up the economy with monetary stimulation at times when productivity and not liquidity is the problem. Witness current Asia. South Korea is correct, they do not need economic austerity. They need fiscal austerity which SHOULD begin with the IMF declining to loan them money.

Witness the U.S. Debt. If you are trying to make an arguement that the debt allowed us all these great times and anyone saying different is cynical and an old fashioned know nothing then your self-centerness is readily appearent. Yes, the debt allowed us to have more now. Yes, future generations will benefit by what we have now. BUT, future generations cannot advance like we did through debt creation because they will still have our old debt so they will be tied to productivity where we were not. Future generations will also be slowed down if the need to repay the debt ever arises such as a rise in the cost of servicing the debt.

Basically, our debt allowed for a ONE TIME advancement in infrastructure spending. The rolled over debt will preclude future generations from doing the same. Is that advancement LGB? Denying future generations the ability to defecit spend in times of crisis because our selfish generation defecit spent in times of prosperity? Was it far sighted on the part of our government and central banks to allow the rollup of this debt for current consumption when future generations may have to actually pay it back after the benefits derived from what was spent are all used up? We supercharged our lifestyle at the expense of draining future economies and you call it cynical to challenge this notion?

No wonder you are not quoted like Puetz, your thinking is linear and parochial.

Steve

Anyone - Need Nikkei Futures Index address !!! Thanks in advance!!

Once again the June Comex 330 gold calls @$200/each or better represent a screaming buy! Only $30 to go by May 8! IMHO These calls will pay off BIG once the collapse of Asia starts tanking the US Dollar and the DOW!

Bart -- Not trying to be facetious, but I think that a 28.8 KBaud modem link might do you more justice! This site is SLOW by ANY standards!

Santa arrived early, opened bag and out poped the Grinch.

albeit that, secondly, I disagree...

One could argue that your paper money world works as well as, in its moment in history, the earth as the center of the universe worked in its time and place; that in no measure anoints either tenet as a Great Truth except in its nano-second in historys spotlight.

Humankind stumbles forward, holding aloft its secular truths, by which it organizes and experiences this culture and that: life worked before India and the Arabians give us the zero and numbers; life worked before Leonardo Fibonacchi brought the numerical system to Tuscany and enabled the Tuscans to have books that could keep complex accounts, and double-entry bookkeeping; life worked when the Scots burned witches to save their ( the witches ) immortal souls.

What one might argue, is that the constant through all the centuries of turmoil and triumph as been--and is--Homo Sapiens. And it is there your argument, to my mind, falls apart. May I share with you this passage from a favorite book of mine, which says well what I believe ( and Id venture to say, what you yourself believe ) :
We shape our houses, and then they shape us. The building of the debt creates more dollars, which creates a distrust of dollars, which erodes the credibility of the currency as a store of value. We become more concerned about getting through the next crisis, next year, than about the next decade and the next generation, and that works against our better instincts.
Those instincts--to work and save, to accumulate--are strong in productive societies. They have to do with children and trees. People want to plant trees they may not see mature, to leave things for the next generation, to take advantage of increasing herds and compounding interest. Though they do not think of it in exactly this way, they want the money itself--not gold, not silver, not Kewpie dolls, not canned goods or even houses--to be the store of value, because they do not want to spend their time figuring out how to escape or manipulate the currency. Somebody else will always manipulate faster and leave them the loser, and anyway, they would rather be doing what they do, building or selling or plowing or singing. The trouble with paper money is that it rewards the minority that can manipulate money and makes fools of the generation that has worked and saved.
Adam Smith, Paper Money, p. 345

Perhaps we CAN agree that, as Voltaire said, "Liberty of thought is the life of the soul." Merry Christmas.

For Donald

She's right - its Larraine Day - OK she

was in the Hitchcock film "Foreign Correspondent"

- Who was the male lead ??

themissinglink__A -- LGB thinks that no economic growth can occur without fiat 'money' growth. How strange. So little He knows about money!

LGB--Methinks the reason we have a propserous economy is OPM, other people's money! That game is now history as Japan repatriates currency ( reads sells US Paper PRomises ) to bailout its imploding banking system and all of its Asian big traders! Methinks you'll learn the truth about our apparent prosperity as all blowhards do, THE HARD WAY! ( read GOLD!! )

http://www.theage.com.au/daily/971224/news/news10.html

Jung - Checked out your Kitco archive. This is a real asset. Thanks for making it available to us. As to suggestions:

1. It would be easier to find people if sorted by name.

2. Linked graphics, like charts, don't work. I don't know if it would be possible or practical for you to archive these.

3. If you want to get really exotic, you could put a user i/f level in front of the archive, with a drop down list to select a name, and a provisions to enter a range of dates. This way a person could, for example, ask for all the posts for DJ for the month of December, and they would be returned with a single query. For really prodigious posters, it is a little cumbersome and time consuming to click on each post individually, searching for the one you want.

However, if you leave it as it is, it still a great resource, and thank you very much for doing it.

SDRer__A -- You expect LGB to read and understand all of that?!!!! I DON'T think so!!! No liberal type of mindset will EVER give up his/her 'right' to use someone elses money/property/earnings/rights for their own benefits! Can't be done!

vronsky, sweetheart, love your pages, u can't spell any better than me huh? Look at your flag page, New Zeland should be Noo Zilund, or something..

LGB - I was surprised by your earlier post re.: fiat money role in our "prosperity". I hope you will have enough guts to stay with Kitco site once the results of what you admire bring about THE worst economic and social upheaval in this century.
Your friend Karlito posted a similarly lunatic statement yesterday. Karlito stated that the yield and price-book ratios are worthless indicators for stocks. I think that you post this sophistry just to get a response out of people here.

Regardless of our differences of opinion ( and especially our occasional losses of tact ) , I sincerely hope that each of you has a great holiday. PLEASE REMEMBER that there are things more important than our investments ( e.g. religion and family ) .

If a worldwide economic crisis develops, most of us will have a little insurance with our gold investments. If no crisis develops, our investments in our homes and careers will continue to support our families. Either way, we are all on this earth for only a few short years, so try to get your priorities straight.

You never hear of a dying person saying anything like:

I wish that I had just spent a little more time managing my portfolio -OR-

I wish that I had just spent a little more time at work

I suppose that if any of us were a real genius, we wouldnt be here reading and posting to Kitco. We would be retired... lounging under a palm tree somewhere on a tropical island.... paying someone to manage our investments for us...

For the benefit of a newbie ( me ) , could you please explain what are the
risks and rewards of buying the June 330 calls ? And, what are the mechanics involved ? TIA.

donald_a-----the ---DON----

your actions ( posts ) regarding bonds caused me
to buy ( react ) july 112 bond puts today for close to
$85 each + $50 broker fee. bought 3, so we shall
'see', together......

not much of a gamble when all things are considered. with
the japans coming on-line tonight, with korea losing 14% ( 1 day )
value of their curriencies, their markets down 7% ( overnight )
and the nikkei down big, bank and securities failures......

where are the good guys in their white hats? who's gonna step-up
to the table and be a hero? who has big enough garbanzos to ride
the paper-tiger, and financially support the masses inside her?

there are NO garbanzos that big!!

we need some aliens from hale-bopp....

ok lgb, karlito ( bug eyes ) , and ANY hep-ratted gutter licker from space...
here is your chance....save the world with communes and entitlements

what other signs are needed? a swift kick in the @ss? it's coming!!


katy bar the door....sh!t is gonna fly from one place to another......
....better be above or beyond it..............
....chaos and flux will take no prisoners............

hey eldo---------welkommen-----

cherokee!;---chryssalitic-imm-------

IMHO there are those ( mainly among our more youthful bretheren ) whose experience
during an unprecedented Bull market has conditioned their thinking every bit as much
as the so called prophets of doom have conditioned an older generation who can
remember the realities of the Great depression and World War Two...to name but two
major disasters in a 15- year span. That we survived those times and indeed went on to
greater things demonstrates the powerful and positive survival instinct of human nature.
It is our weaknesses , it seems, that bring on these stern tests... usually after periods of
careless euphoria.... creating blind spots that tend to distort and deny true values. That
things have become badly out-of- whack again is becoming more and more apparent.This
is the unpopular task of the Prophet.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 26.15 This is an 8% drop in the 10 trading days since the December 9th high of 28.44. We are now back below July levels; and below the August 6th previous high; and below the January, 1966 high.

YOU AMERICANS SLAY ME. HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT YOU HAVE THE STRONGEST
ECONOMY. LETS TALK ABOUT DEBT AND DECEIT AND PAINT THE TRUE PICTURE OF
WHAT AMERICA IS ABOUT! YOU FACE THE SAME PROBLEM AS CANADA ONLY TO A MUCH
GREATER DEGREE AND THAT IS POLITICS. THESE POLITITIANS HAVE MASTERED THE
ART OF DECEPTION AND ARE LEADING THE SHEEP TO SLAUGHTER! CNBC HAS JOINED
THE RANKS OF THE PAPER CROWD AND ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE OBVIOUS WITH
THEIR NONSENSE. LAST WEEK DOW DROPPED 90 POINTS AND THEY REFERRED TO THE
DAY AS BEING GOOD. WHERE DO YOU THINK THESE LARGE SELL PROGRAMS LIKE
TODAYS COME FROM? TOOK THE DOW DOWN 90 POINTS IN 25 MINUTES. HAVE WATCHED THE DOW VERY CLOSELY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND IF WHAT WE ARE
SEEING IS NOT DISTRIBUTION i DONOT KNOW WHAT IS. PLEASE DONOT MISCONSTRUE
WHAT i AM SAYING ABOUT AMERICA OR CANADA,I AM PROUD OF CANADA JUST AS YOU
ARE PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN, THIS IS NOT COUNTRY BASHING IT IS SIMPLY
MY OBSERVATIONS OF THIS DIRE ECONOMIC CONDITION WE ARE ALL FACING.
HAVE A GREAT CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!!

Emrald Heights:Should not watch in the mirror while writing messages.

LGB:Thanks to papermoney,the mightiest economy,mostproperous corporations,strongest businesses,mightiest currency etc
FORGOT TO LOOK IN HIS BACK YARD:90%of the wealth in the hands of 5%of
the population
3 miljon prisoners
25% live under the poverty level

John Disney:BETISES ET ENCORE BETISES

XAU/Spot Ratio = .250

I think you have sugar-coated it. All in the name of good taste, I presume

I remember well when the gold price drifted below $500 an ounce. I was sick. I felt terrible when fell below $300. And now I feel greatful that it did not fall to $250 as some prognosticated and appears to be on the rise. I will rejoice when it bubbles up throught $300. Count your blessings one by one. Eat your desert first, life is short.

Silver/Gold Ratio = 47.06

I would submit to you to look again @ our work force! You state that the US economy will prevail to the hard work of the people with in. I would contend that it is due to the unwillingness of the people of today that has generated the problems we face!

We as a country have become to soft and expect to much and giving to little. I live in an agricultural comunity where the work force is imported. ( #1 industry in our state, ahead of Boeing and micro soft ) The work force is subsidized by the social programs of the state.

How will we prevail when we have to pay an person over $30 per hour ( Hrly wage + benifet package + payroll taxes ) to deliver packages, or push a broom or pick up garbage?

Our education system is much more interested in teaching kids how to get along, or that its ok to have two daddies, or how to use a condom; than to teach fundamentals like they did in the past which made us a great nation.

I would submit that we are not a motivated nation, ( why should we, the more you make, the more they take! )

Entry level jobs pay less than social safety net!

Explain how we are so productive when we now are a servicer nation instead of a produceing nation!

It is commendable that you think highly of this country, as due I but please take of the blinders!

Cherokee -- I've said before, and I'll say again, I'm always here! I may not be posting, but I'm here! I'll say something when it NEEDS to be said! Therefore, 'Away to peruse my non-posting behavior'....

I would submit to you to look again @ our work force! You state that the US economy will prevail to the hard work of the people with in. I would contend that it is due to the unwillingness of the people of today that has generated the problems we face!

We as a country have become to soft and expect to much and giving to little. I live in an agricultural comunity where the work force is imported. ( #1 industry in our state, ahead of Boeing and micro soft ) The work force is subsidized by the social programs of the state.

How will we prevail when we have to pay an person over $30 per hour ( Hrly wage + benifet package + payroll taxes ) to deliver packages, or push a broom or pick up garbage?

Our education system is much more interested in teaching kids how to get along, or that its ok to have two daddies, or how to use a condom; than to teach fundamentals like they did in the past which made us a great nation.

I would submit that we are not a motivated nation, ( why should we, the more you make, the more they take! )

Entry level jobs pay less than social safety net!

Explain how we are so productive when we now are a servicer nation instead of a produceing nation!

It is commendable that you think highly of this country, as due I but please take of the blinders!

Sorry for the double post!

I wish you hadn't told me that. Now I will worry along with you. Good Luck. The reversal in bonds late today was a good sign. The World Bank must have sold $3 billion worth to write the check for Korea. If you e.mail me at donald@uconect.net I will send you something encouraging later.

The price of gold in Aisan currencies has skyrocketed. Anyone who was purchasing an ounce of gold per month can now only get about half that amount.

Dear LGB, Enjoy the Santa Claus rally!

Gold is an investment and seen as a safe haven in Asia. We all know gold is going up in the local currencies so those who have bought gold are better off. In a panic situation as in Asia I would think gold demand would rise. Do Americans buy fewer mutual funds because they are performing better than cash and concommitantly higher in price? The answer is obvious. Those believing gold demand will fall in Asia have their views, IMHO colored by how gold has performed in our local currency. If the yen and baht were soaring against the dollar and gold also going up against the dollar I dare say the comments re gold would be quite bullish. To the Asian gold has to look safe and rewarding ( lately ) So I know they are different from us they will want to sell gold.HMM something not quite consistent here.

- FRB Top-Dog Shares His Candid Opinion On Gold

- Greenspan: Still Going for the Gold

Once at the following website, scroll down until you see Mr. Greenspans bright-eyes peeping out at you, then CLICK him... where ever you like. IF you do NOT see Greenspans photo, RELOAD THE PAGE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com

Sweat: When I find some sucker to buy all the silver I've stashed away over the last 10 years that will be the time to buy the tree farm and retire. I'll be a believer only when it tests the $5.20 and stays up, unless it makes it over $6.80 before New Year's Day.

CrystalBall: my old email server looks like they're shutting down for good, but this one promises to be open for a while.

gagnrad@hotmail.com

Werner, you mean LGB is from Russia? I suspected as much.

refer,

I could not agree with you more regarding your perceptive comments on american education. I have witnessed the inexorable slide in the ability of my college freshmen for years, but the recent collapse makes gold's look benign.

FOR REFER:YES INDEED PLENTY OF JOBS HAVE BEEN CREATED IN THE US.
BUT MOSTLY VERY LOW PAID JOBS THE SO CALLED MAC DONALDS JOB )
many people have even to take 2jobs to make some kind of a
decent living.
WHY ?: mostly because of the so called free trade agreements ( gatt )
which put western economies in direct concurrence with developing
countries.So prices are low and remain low.Who profits? mostly large corporations which also give this way power to politicians at home.
Yes the US will control the world or 5% OF the Americans will control the
world.

Bart...March Silver up to 6.29...are the frames up to date??

Go Silver ( and Gold ) ...congrats TED on the Maine deal.

GOLD CORNER - 24-HOUR TRADING

Major Gold Trading Centers Around the World. Many Gold price links, including closing bullion and gold coin prices. Also shows live GOLD TRADING in London, Singapore, Tokyo & the COMEX:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

How you feel about this gold rally? ... ( Bah, Humbug! ) When you re-establish your short position, be careful you don't end up with a "wedgie."

Your ole' pal, CB {;- ) )

Roger, Wilco. Got yer new address. I put on new ABX 17 1/2 calls on Friday, looking for 20 1/2 ( maybe as soon as sometime this week )

Your comment on devaluation neglects one important aspect to fiat money, and that is interest rates. If a country devalues its' currency then the interest rate on the government bonds must rise to compensate 'investors' for the added risk of holding the bonds for the time period in question. Prices of goods will invariably rise due to higher carrying costs and the risk of depreciating 'money'. As to whether individual Asians are selling gold or not, who can tell for sure.

LGB, you are neglecting to look at the price of gold in terms of local currency. Nice try buddy! The fact of the matter is that gold has skyrocketed in terms of local Asian currencies. It has fallen in dollar terms due to the relative demand, or strength of the U.S. dollar. How you see this market depends on where you sit. Beware of the holidays folks. We all know what happened last time. Who knows what might happen this time?

We were supposed to get a little dusting of snow today in the Northeast Ten to twenty inches later...... Hmmmm, so gold is dead huh? I think I'll check that gold forecast again.......

BBL

New Kid on the Block
"As I predicted,

A Grin Thing [:- )

Just a follow up to Kitcoite predictions - looks like we called the bottom in Gold unless, of course it drops again. Then we can successfully predict another Gold bottom.

Take a look at the "max chart" on the XAU.
If we have seen the bottom, Gold should continue to increase from here.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=my

Good point at 18:18. Since 1971 when the gold window closed all currencies in the world have been backed by the "interest rate commodity".

Now Bill, don't say I didn't tell-ya. Before the market opened today I warned the if 124 was taken out, you might become a "pauper" alongside of the wealthiest man in the world, The Sultan of Brunei Darussalam who has been accumulating GOLD. So what happens... your MICROSOFT plummets nearly FOUR BUCKS, closing at 123 11/16... flat on its ass low. While stocks were being dumped on-balance the XAU shot up in the final minutes to close at its tippy-toes high of 73.59, up 1.84 points. HEY BILL, check it out for yourself:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/squote.htx?source=htx%2Fhttp2_mw&tables=table&TICKER=msft+%24xau&tables=table&format=fractions

Bill, I donno what to tell-ya man. I made it abundantly clear that if the 124 support was taken out, it's Katie bar the door. Furthermore, gold bullion moved up smartly all day, while SILVER SOARED. With gold stuff soaring and your paper being hammered, it makes a body wonder about the message I found in my fortune cookie at lunch in the Won Lost Chinese Restaurant. "It said: " Brunei Sultan short MSFT & long GOLD."
Gadsgazooks... looks like you ain't gonna be #1 anytime soon. Shucks, you may not even made Forbes List next year. Bill ol' buddy, can't say I didn't tell-ya

http://www.kitco.com/platinum.graph.html O.K. if silver does take off and gold continues its accumulation, when will the time be right to accumulate platinum? And what will be the point on the graphs when one would naturally want to sell silver for platinum? ( I figure, using my own ideosyncratic fundamentalistic ideas that I'll start buying palladium when it hits $135, but platinum is still a puzzle. )

I trade futures ( not many options anymore ) . You have to open an account with a commodity brokerage. I use Lind-Waldock. They run an ad daily in the Wall Street Journal on the commodities page. I believe they require $2000 to open an options only account, and $5000 to trade futures and options. Over the years, I have found it difficult to make much money trading options because they add the further risk of timing your trades correctly. However, if you get a big move, you can do rather well. Futures are easier to trade because time is not a factor, but it requires more capital and there is inherently more risk. For instance, I bought Feb gold last week and got filled at 289.30. If gold just sits there and doesn't move, I haven't lost anything but the commission. In this case however, gold has moved up to $295.50 resulting in a potential gain per contract of $620 ( each contract is for 100 ounces ) . Of course, had gold dropped by $6.20, I would be out $620 per contract. Lind-Waldock requires you to have $1013 in your account for each gold contract you buy or sell. It's really pretty straightforward.

The option trade you mentioned is a bet that gold will rise between now and June, and overcome the premium you paid the seller of the option. The more volatile the commodity the higher the premium you will pay. If you catch a good move up and the value of the option rises, you may sell it anytime and your profit would be the difference in the buying price and the selling price. If gold doesn't rise in this time frame, your premium will erode to zero by June rendering the option worthless. It is less risky but requires exquisite timing. If I might offer a piece of advice, paper trade until you can consistently make a profit on the majority of your trades. No point in learning the hard way with real money. Good luck!

KCT

that we haven't heard from tolerant1 in awhile. Camdessus should take appropriate precautions....could be too late. Perhaps it's time to pass the hat for this mighty warrior's defense fund....Johnnie Cochran?

Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after today's trading:

Gold: Fell 99 ounces to 483,878

Silver: Tumbled 1,638,878 ( ! ) ounces to 111,504,478 ( A new 13 year low )

As suspected for many days now, it looks like another powerful leg up in Silver is underway. This strong bull market seems to have left many traders behind. Some even decided to "short" it last week despite a lack of evidence that the run-up has stalled.

Who are we to decide for the market? The signs have been there for many weeks now that Silver just wants to move up and no matter what the "talks" and "opinions" may be, the markets are always right!

The train has left the station and those who stayed on board are probably the few who have been able to keep the emotions on the sideline and to "respect" what the market wants to do.

Now if I could just figure out how to measure AFTER TAX income! So many taxes are hidden nowadays, you know.

Panda: It's not necessary to have open and free markets for market-forces to work. The former Soviet Union was a perfect example of market forces causing an ill-conceived economic and financial system to collapse.

Market forces are at work in Asia -- as well as in the good ole US of A. The ultimate financial force in not determined by: Will the Federal Reserve intervene in the case of a financial panic? Rather, the question is: How long will investors feel comfortable owning US Treasury Bills and US Treasury Bonds once the markets and economy turn lower?

In Asia, it didn't take so long for speculators and investors to totally abandon the financial-paper of the governments over there -- once their stock markets fell. The notion that their economies were deflation, and that bonds are good investments during deflation -- didn't hold much water once the credit-deflation took over.

It's no consolation to me that speculators hold a record long-position of 110,000 contract of US Treasury Bonds futures on the CBOT. Credit-deflation is rapidly approaching here in the US. Federal Reserve intervention will not succeed. It will only highten inflation fears. In a rather odd paradox, these inflationary fears will cause stocks and bonds to decline in value -- faster than the Fed's credit-pumping efforts. Gold and silver will soar in value, everything else will collapse -- including a tremendous stock market crash.

I have a celebratorial and stiff and free drink awaiting you. It's the least I can do. Your next call please?

Couldn't agree with you more. I think the fact that T Bonds finished
unchanged today is very significant.

( i.e. that swindling comes forward to feed on a boom's greed ) --
FT, Monday Dec 22:
"European regulators investigate 'virtual' brokerage: four European countries investigating a brokerage that has ceased operation after selling US OTC shares to investors around the world.
Bathgate,Dreyfus?erce ( BDP ) registered in Ireland, sent out statements from Portugal, ran its sales operation from Spain, directed activities from the UK; credit check showed a Swiss company BD&P Holding Ventures; research arm and share recommendations to investors had a New York address/office."

Makes one's head ache, yes?

Do I pick up a hint of class envy?

Would you prefer protectionism or isolationism,I can not comment on the treaties that you state because I have not read them, I will grant that what I have heard and seen on effects of the agreement, it undermines some freedoms and do not like what I have seen; be that as it may, We have to come to the realization that we as a nation cannot be selfperpetual and subset only on our own markets, we need foreign trade!

Explain how we could have grown to where we are without foreign trade, now that we are being beaten at our own game, is the answer not to play!

I fill we could easly compete and defeat against any other nation and come out on top, BUT unwilling to do so! How can we ( we as in tax generating work force ) compete when 30-40% pays the way for the other 60 to 70% tax consuming force!

33% of the cost for building or improving roads in this country goes to permits and studies ( gov red tape ) this does not include the taxes payed on the workers for the road, the fuel tax for the equipment ( over 40 cents gallon in my state )

Training of a work force! Who should choose and who should pay. We are paying over $5500 a year per student in the public schools, if the only job the can get is McDonnalds why blame the companies or corps.

All these people complaining of companies going out of the country to produce goods, yet do they buy only american made or do the buy the best product for the cheapest price where ever it comes from?

The blame game needs to stop! We as a nation of people need to come together not point the finger! We as a nation have sold ourselves out, by having an me attitude instead of a we attitude!

Hey!

Congratulations for your good memory!

No, I don't have a newsletter and I'm not of the "I told you so" type either.

I'm a very private futures trader who learned the very hard way that there is no room for "emotions" and "opinions" ( yes, "opinions"! ) in the markets.

I learned to FULLY RESPECT what it seems to want to do, no matter what I and others want it to do.

The most difficult challenge for us "human beings" is to be able to trade without "emotions" and "greed". Once it's mastered however, the odds are strongly on our side.

Thanks for your message and all the best to you!

G'Day,

Do you think that the Sultan is short for a quid or two - is he attempting to make ends meet.

Aye, Haggis

Minimum wage jobs only is old news and is not true now. The problem in the US is that we cannot find properly educated and trained people for any job position.
The problem is so bad that we cant find people to pour a glass of water correctly let alone reprogram for the Yr 2K problem.

Yes, every family and many individuals are being forced to hold two jobs if they are going to cover living cost. This is true whether the family has two Ford pickups or two BMWs. US individuals, families, industries, and governments are over extended with debt and if there is any disruption in income such as layoffs, tax receipts, overtime discontinued, price increases, etc. they will begin to default on everything from credit cards to margin calls.

The US is very vulnerable to the Asian contasian. Dont forget it was only 5 years ago when the US had major debt problems. It wasnt until Clinton Economics that we suddenly had no national debt, no inflation. 500K jobs per week created, 2% unemployment. etc. etc.

They will print what ever we should hear, whether true or not, to keep the illusion that everything is ok alive. They will do what ever is necessary to keep the boat afloat. I would watch what I said and do if I were Saddam.

I have been dollar cost averaging on a monthly basis, U.S.Services-China Region Opportunity Fund since the inception of the fund, sometime in 1994 or 1995, which invests in Far East equity markets.

Truhome authorities, who are conducting business in the Far East say NOW is the time to be investing in the Asian markets, that in the aftermath the Asians have learned their lesson and in time will once again rise to being a dominant economic force. Does anyone here have any thoughts on the subject and give evidence that I should reevaluate my investment direction? Of course, still taking possession of the physical metals ( gold, silver, platinum ) . I will continue to until my Jewish friends tell me to discontinue. Help, Intolerant 1, Donald, Puetz, Cherokee, Vronsky, etc!!!!!!!

To paraphase John Paul Jones: we have not even begun to deflate.
Get out of all stocks now! The deflation is about to spread to the
U.S. and when the U.S. goes, it's syanora.

G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

Aye, someone took a wrong turn somewhere. Too many Hollywood Heros, and not enough real life dedication........which does not apply to everyone.
The "nice" thing about coming from Scotland is that you HAVE to get qualified, as the country really does not have a lot of incoming investment. Biggest export, even ahead of Whiskey, is qualified people. All my old uni mates are either in N or S America, Southern Africa, Australia, some are even in China nowadays.

The good thing about the Aussies is that they get out and about and see the world. I don't believe that a lot of American kids do that.

Aye, Haggis

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971223/ny_precious_metals_e_1.html

the combination of the two, as alluded to.....
nothing detrimental, just similar prose to another......

sugar is looking good, so are chocolate covered espresso beans....

why the sudden sell-off today when LEAST expected?
who got out, and why? are the sleepwalkers suddenly
all alone on the hellbound train?? ( savoy brown )

the smart money got out instead of exposing themselves to the
probability of a major melt-down tonight and over the holidays.

8 days and counting for the demise of the paper-tiger...
how many points this time? january effect? 500 last month....
chicken feed....the future, in the future.......

what happened to the c$??? awwwww. where is the mex$ going? awwwwww.
us stocks------before '98!!! my limb-------stronger everyday!!!!!!!
the policies of the fat cat mega-bank-onoid has come home to roost....
aaawwwwwwkkkkkkkk.......sounds like a turkey to me....

listen to your eyes, they speak the truth-----

----!; ) ----eya--cherokee;---yes haggis, there is precedent...;

Haggis__A ( Vronsky and the Sultan ) : Nah, he just wants to stay #1... plus it's good business. Surely, you know his greatest income source is crude oil. Moreover, as a muslim he has a softspot in his heart for gold. The The Sultan probably thinks of Bill Gates as an snaut-nosed UPSTART.

THANK YOU for reaffirming my deflated gut feeling!

.

Anybody know the history on these things? From my very poor

memory this is the first year in a long time that the markets

haven't had one. Might be an indicator of things to come.

All the best everybody .

Religion has nothing to do with it but I would think the bottom in all the countries you mentioned is 5 or more years away.

Following Nikkei closely..was up 31pts...within a minute --- was down 28!
Fasten your seatbelts.

After nearly a 10% loss in the Nikkei in recent day, it just opened DOWN ONLY 112 points. The BOJ must be employing all its big guns to prevent the Nippon market from following Korea into the septic-tank. Hope the BOJ has a herd a goats around to eat up all that paper it needs to buy to prevent the Nikkei from free-fall... but the night is still young.

Nikkei now down 63 pts. and falling fast...watch out below.
Tomorrow could be very interesting on Wall Street.

G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

I TAKE IT THAT YOU ARE NOT AN AMERICAN.

IF YOU DISAGREE WITH SOMEBODY MAKE YOUR FEELINGS ARE KNOWN. USE POSITIVE REINFORCEMENT, SUCH AS: "YOU STILL WOULDN'T HAVE A CLUE, WOULD YOU?".

You should test out Neighbourhood Watch in your area. Next time you go away leave the front door open. Have a good Xmas holiday.

Aye, Haggis

I think so. He has posted that comment several times. There will always be those people who are only qualified for Mickey D's and feel above such work - welfare from the public pocket book is always much more acceptable. They would never think of going back to high school or attending one of the many great trade schools.

No government can support a public that doesn't produce. What does this country make besides hamburgers and software?

We can't find qualified Architects in our area and the last I heard MD's was paying $10/hr.
Gold bugs remember the Fed can't raise rates to slow this engine down. Contractors are being warned to be ready for inflation. Record wages are being paid and we still can't find the people to fill jobs and as Werner says people are having trouble making ends meet even when every one in the family is working.

There appears to be cross currents or forces at work in this economy - something has to give, one way or the other, soon.

Hoosier: My dad has Guinness Flight HK and China, similar fund. What I told him is that China has at least 300 billion US in uncollectible debt, mostly in the SOE's -- the older communist concerns which are generally non-profitable. What will happen fairly soon is that China will be forced to devalue their currency when they openly admit their problem. You may have noticed that Donald has posted a running saga from that part of the world. It is hard to know what is happening exactly behind the closed doors in a Communist system, but Donald's persistent searches have paid off -- at least in my opinion. My guess is that the devaluation will knock down HK and China stocks one more time, and they will stay down for a time. China will not be seriously affected, just the foreign investors in Japan, Hong Kong and ?. Much of China's internal trade is still by barter, so the Chinese can survive financial turmoil better then any country in the developed world.

The smart money will be bottom fishing after the devaluation, provided that the SE Asia situation is easing, and Japan and S Korea have stabilized. I think you will have plenty of time to invest later, if you bail out now and reinvest later. If you can handle the losses, just slowly put more money in. If you do the latter, it still would make sense to wait for the devaluation first. You may be in for a surprise or two before it goes your way.

Eventually I think China will emerge much stronger than it is now. I'm not so sure about S Korea and Japan. Hope this helps -- my advice is worth just what you paid for it!

FT, Letters to the Editor

WORTH BETTING ON A RENAISSANCE OF GOLD
From Mr. Wolgang Sendler,

Sir, Honestly, which human activity is not equally hit by Yale professor Robert Triffins remark on the nonsense of digging gold ( Death of Gold, December 13-14 ) ? Possibly 22 persons more or less randomly hunting for a ball?
As for the arguments around the inclination of central bankers towards assets more valuable than gold, they may well fit into some economic theories but probably miss the point.

During the last decades we saw a gargantuan blow-up of both paper and virtual money, the latter fluctuating wildly around the globe within barely controllable computer networks, mainly between great players like central banks, and just a tiny fraction of it reaching the man on the street.

Only by unanimously preaching the banning of gold as an admissible currency may these players successfully prevent ordinary people from using it, especially amid increasing mistrust in virtual money.

Insofar as the central banks aim is simply to secure their monopoly on the issue of money is their strategy comprehensible. It reminds one, however, of a favorite anti-armament idea during the 1960s: Do not possess nuclear weapons, so the aggressor will not bomb you, since his own damage would surmount his gain. It is not only people of Hiroshima who could explain the flaws of this argument!

Your article stresses correctly the discrepancy between central banking rationalists and ordinary people, but is it certain that those rationalists will control the world economy indefinitely? What if ordinary people decide to resort to the superweapon of gold, despite ( or even because of ) the fact that central banks have sold and publicly declared it worthless?

Gold is in folks minds, and as recent events ( former Yugoslavia, for example ) teach us, old ideas may reemerge even if they seem long forgotten. Gold will come back if ordinary people remember its traditional role, and I bet some that this will indeed happen. I would bet an even greater amount that this renaissance will be surprising, sudden, decisive and--possibly--doomsday for some central banks.

Wolfgang Sendler
Kreuzflur 31
54296 Trier,
Germany

A round of applause please for the German sensibility

Refer: Agree with you wholeheartedly on public education. In our case we very closely followed the education our daughter was receiving. Seemed O.K. for the first few years. This year however, BAM! They started learning in Science class about divorce, single parenting, "feelings" for each other and other touchy-feely drivel. Meanwhile, her friend in Christian school Science class was learning the migratory habits of birds and other NORMAL Science-related items.

She starts Christian school the first week of January. ( At great expense ) .

But worth it.

G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

Och Man, go back to your roots. Recruit from Scottish Universities. You must always remember the it was the Scots Masonic Brigade that started the wars against the Poms ( English ) , way back in George Washington's days.

Aye, Haggis

DONOT LEAVE YOUR COMPUTERS WE ARE IN FOR A VERY INTERESTING NIGHT
WHICH COULD CAUSE MUCH INDIGESTION FROM THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF PAPER
ABOUT TO BE CONSUMED.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971223/markets_usa_korea_1.html

Nikkei coming back..only down 60 pts; however South Korea now down 5.64%! Is there enough IMF money to bail out South Korea? Operation Rat Hole.

WHERE IS THE BOTTOM AND WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE CURRENCIES!

Korea -21.40 -5.84%.

http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/12/23/international_news/mideastpa_1.html

I have heard alot of opinions about whether Asians are buying or selling their gold at the moment. Has anyone got some old fashioned facts??

If their is a panic in the general masses, which metal would come out on top?

Each metal provides a funtion of a tangable asset, but do they have psychological differences?

Would appreciate input, thanks

Good Move Dad.
In twenty years, you will know what I know as a father, and I bet you will get on your knees thanking God for the insight and $ allowing you to do what you have done for your daughter, your family, the world etc.etc.

Hey JT8D: DC8?

It is important in this election year to juxtapose the bailing out of investors in Asia with raising the retirement age for SS and cutting medicare. Knife to the throat politics. I think in the House we can block all funding for IMF. Things startin to look better eh Karlito? LGB?

I am against protectionisme and isolationisme.One of the reasons of the The economic boom in the EU in the 70's was realized because of trade without barriers between the member countries.Problems started when tradebarriers were lifted with countries like Turquie,poland,hongrie etc In those countries did not exist minimum wages nor social security etc
A worker was paid about ten times less than in the EU.At first EU tried to to compete by restructuring,lower salaries,robotisation etc
But this was useless .So most factories left and are still leaving.
As long salaries stay low and social security inexitant in developping countries EU factories want be able to compete.So according to me trade barriers must remain till fair competition is possible ( till they have more or less the same saleries and social security system )

Good Evening!

You are right, it all goes back a ways.

My wife is of the Ross Clan
and I am suppose to be a descendant of General Greene of Scottish ancestry. We are still checking that one out.

We saw a chart today that showed George Washington's ancestry from the King of England me thinks.

Off Subject-Today I picked up some new 1998 calendars for my music store from Business Depot in Markam Ontario.When I was ready to attach them to the wall one of my staff said "Look made in Indonesia"As a previous Bre-x owner and now big time in Ballard for the future of transportation chills tingled through my body .Can it happen again? P.S.BTW The music business this year is the real gold mine,love that Venus Silver and might grab one of those Vronsky Condos .Happy Trails.

It will be worth every penny that you spend in my opinion.

They teach good morals and taking responsiblity for ones actions, besides they 3 R's

It seems odd to me that public schools are doing away with Xmas and all religious oreinted activities but still observe Halloween!

Am delighted to see gold at $US 294. Is this however, merely a suckers rally like the one in late September or are we on the way up?

The Nikkei is down only 0.50%, but the massacre continues in South Korea. Its stock market is ALREADY down 6% as I speak... that's on top of yesterday's debacle of -7.5%. Gentlemen, we are watching financial history being written, which will via the Domino Effect will impact the entire world.

IMHO US problems are primarily the growth of Federal socialism which fosters dependance among persons who believe they are entitled to things without the bother of thinking, working and striving. Interestingly, after we fought a bloody world war over freedom issues the American Democratic party then started to emulate the German National Socialist Party in many details.

JT8D ed al: Kudos on your school decision. A parochial school is always going to do far better than any public education. Especially with today's emphasis on PC, Radical Secularism, and Mickey Mouse course material. However, have you ever considered Homeschooling? That's what we do with our kids and it's ( so far ) working out splendidly. Just from an economic standpoint alone, can you imagine what sort of educational supplies you could buy your daughter for the price you pay for her private school?

Plaintalker: DC-9. Captain. ( You're very perceptive ) .

HighRise: Thanks. We've been ready for this for some time. God bless you.

Tuesday December 23, 7:15 pm Eastern Time

Japan to use 3 trln yen to buy preferred stocks

TOKYO, Dec 24 ( Reuters ) - The Japanese government and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) plan to use about three trillion yen worth of public funds to buy preferred stock and subordinated bonds issued by financial institutions, a Japanese business daily reported in its Wednesday's edition.

In a third package of economic stimulus measures announced last week the LDP called on the government to contribute 10 trillion yen worth of bonds to Japan's Deposit Insurance Corp ( DIC ) to protect depositors and help strengthen the capital of troubled financial institutions.

Of this 10 trillion yen, the government and the party plan to allocate about three trillion yen to the DIC to purchase preferred stocks and subordinated bonds, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun said.

The remaining seven trillion yen would be allocated to protect depositors and to help institutions that take over failed financial institutions, the paper said.

The LDP is to finalise the plan on Wednesday, the paper said.

Yes 223, I agree I'd rather see people starving to death on the streets than pay a few extra dollars in Tax....... NOT!

Let's go back to the good old days like the Great depression when out of work meant being a destitute beggar.

Capitalism can't function without a pool of low paid workers and unemployed so we who benefit from the capitalist system have to pic up the tab for those who don't. To do otherwise would be inhuman.

GOLD UP NEARLY 2% IN TOKYO - ONCE at following website CLICK the gold coin marked "TOKYO GOLD"
http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

Yes 223, I agree I'd rather see people starving to death on the streets than pay a few extra dollars in Tax....... NOT!

Let's go back to the good old days like the Great depression when out of work meant being a destitute beggar.

Capitalism can't function without a pool of low paid workers and unemployed so we who benefit from the capitalist system have to pic up the tab for those who don't. To do otherwise would be inhuman.

Do not forget that the market manipulations going on in the "free markets" are becoming prohibitively expensive. The CBs DO NOT have infinite supply of funds. Granted, they are extremely powerful, however, at the end the very entity they are trying to control will cause their downfall. The smart investors are unloading their expensive paper and in the case of Japan it is the BOJ who is primarily buying. The government interference in the market there is perfectly legal.
So, just relax, watch and enjoy in slow motion the paper destruction and above all be prepared. If , after being to this site you are caught unprepared, there should be no mercy on you. The social and financial destruction that is surely coming will have no equal.

Sucker's rally, I don't think so because I bought on the way down and now that it is going back up I am not buying. I am usually a sucker on the way down, that is how I can call the bottom every time. sick grin thing [:+}

This appears to be a very study consistent rise in price - besides where else are they going to make money today? Check out the XAU chart.
I would like to see history repeat itself, if it did, we should see a continuous rise in the price of Gold.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=my

G'day from Kalgoorlie.

"Buy/Accumulate" - Normandy Mining, Lihir Gold, Centaur Mining and Exploration, Johnsons Well Mining ( something BIG coming through ) , Delta Gold, Sons of Gwalia.

"Speculative" buys - Perilya Mines, Hargraves Resources, Equigold, Laverton Gold.

"Holds" - Australian Resources, Aurora Gold, Acacia resources, Camelot Resources ( Teck Corp ) , Resolute, Alkane Exploration.

Aye, Haggis

The fiat money manipulators cause a depression and then they blame capitalism. The same old tactic used by your philosophical predecessors
in the 30's.

Are you buying gold? If your answer is no, then it's not a sucker's
rally.

Thanx for that HighRise. I hope you're right. The Yahoo graph is encouraging.

This reminds me of a joke:

A lady found her second grader was making D's in all his schoolwork, except for arithmetic, which was an F. So she pulled him out of public school and enrolled him in parochial school. For his first report card she was quite proud to see that he'd pulled up all his subjects to B-'s except for arithmatic which was an A+. So she asked him, "Johnny, how is it you did so well in everything except math, but you did wonderfully in math?"

Johnny replied,"Mommy, these people are REALLY serious about arithmatic. Right in front of the class they have a little statue of a man they nailed to a plus sign."

Which reminds me about the purpose of this site. My SWC is +1/8 since I bought it yesterday. Go PGM's! http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/g/S/SWC.html

Is 2% gain in Hong Kong gold right.

What is your point?
Are you for more "why work, when it's free" socialism, and that by it's very nature is bound to fail economics? Rockefeller's Health Care Bill would have been great. Would his Chase bank, the Fed, hold the funds as it does our country's Gold?

Many Russian people want to return to the Socialistic system of free giveaways - there is only one problem the system went broke.

I just don't understand why some people are interested in this Gold site when it appears from their post they would be much happier on the Cuban site.
http://www.bringChristbackwearebroke.com

This doesn't have the look of a sucker's rally. Silver is in a clear uptrend and gold is starting to move. I may be wrong, but it seems silver generally leads gold. I tend to view sucker's rallies as coming at the end of a long move up as the momentum is fading ( see stock market ) . Momentum is rolling in the metals markets. I'm a buyer here with relatively tight stops ( Feb - 286.50 ) . The question from my point of view is are we going to close the gap from last week? I have my stops just under the last lows. If we close the gap, I wouldn't be terribly bullish, but if the gap holds, I'm real bullish.

KCT

Long-time veteran precious metals analyst starts his report with a Point & Future chart of LONDON GOLD, going all the way back to 1980. It clearly shows a TRIPLE-BOTTOM at about the $280 level ( 1982, 1985 and the present ) . The last two times it reached Dines Buy Zone, the yellow zoomed to the $500 area:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines122297.html

Hope no-one here has any.
KWG: .01 to .30 close .03 ( CAN ) .
SGV: .01 to .15 close .05

Fair competition does not have much to do with socialisme
Why do you think you have heavyweight and featherweight boxing??
Anywai its a good day for gold and it will continue!! Its about time
Goodnight to all!!

werner--I would like to have your thoughts on the EMU.

Mr. Spock,
While you write with the genuine emotion of the true believer I must respectfully differ with you. The homeless mentally ill and alcoholics you see on the streets, starving and freezing over the steam grates are there as the result of a series of Federal court decisions, based on the landmark Wyett v. Stickney case which was settled, I believe, in 1974. They have the right to be there and no patronizingly conservative local or state government can force them indoors. The drug dealer you see on the corner is there because if he sold turnips instead he'd have to pay FICA, have insurance, a license and hire an equal quota of various ethnic groups. Food stamps are an agricultural subsidy meant to stabilize prices for corporate farmers and eliminate the need for "kitchen gardens". Et cetera. I won't bore you with more. You get the idea.

But in the case you are right, I'll be happy to vote that you redistribute your gold among the kitcoites who've suffered so much in the recent bear market. ;- )

Puetz -- The point that I was trying to make was that the cataclysmic event that you suggest would greatly change the rules of the game. It could happen, but I think an investment in precisioned machined steel along with copper and lead would yield higher returns.. :- ) )

The bottom line is that the 'game masters' WILL change the rules if the worst happens.

Donald -- Another omen? The spread between ninety day money and the thirty year bond is only 55 basis points. Therefore, there will be no inflation.... :- ) )

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah.

To KTC TRADER and fellow Kitcoites:

I read your post with interest ie.not a sucker's rally. As I hold physical gold I applaud any uptick be it temporary or hopefully otherwise. I was concerned however today to hear of the comments of the Russian Central Bank ( never knew they actually had one but anyhooo ) he stated that he felt that CBs would continue selling off gold reserves in the New Year and that the POG would tumble. Has anyone else heard this report?
Any comments out there?

Mo in To

I am curious as to why no mention of Great Central mines?

All: I think we may be overreacting to the prospect of world-wide deflation. Hence we must be alert to both possibilities, expecially if we are Americans or Europeans. My guess is that the US will avoid the deflationary crisis -- only to get hit by a wave of inflation instead. The deflation will come later ( y2K? ) . On this, I think D.A. would aggree with me -- D.A is a commodities expert, and is probably better able to unravel the deflation/inflation riddle than most of the rest of us.

I would suggest the following investment approach:

For the most conservative -- gold or gold coins.

For the risk takers -- gold and silver stocks -- which will do well unless the US stock market crashes. If we take history as our educator -- turmoil in the US dollar may give us a warning so that we don't get wiped out riding the gold bug Tsunami.

Investing in real estate may ( underline may ) be successful in some countries for the time where inflation is likely to take hold. Given the illiquidity of real estate, and the risk of deflation, REITs would be much safer as they are liquid.

Investing in China -- very long term. I cannot argue with Donald and others that China will not be adversely affected economically -- if the US and Europe go under. If not, China will have a trading partner, and it will be other countries with higer costs of labor that will have a prolonged weak phase ( more than one year ) -- eg SKorea and Japan. One could argue that much of the SEAsia crisis was triggered by the emergence of cheap goods from China. Anyone notice how many of our goods now come from China?

Eventually all countries who do not come to terms with their debt and problems of excessive use of credit without proper respect for "hard" assets instead of "paper' assets will have their ( Kondratiev wave ) crisis, no matter what the economists say. However, it does not have to occur in all countries at the same time. Look how long it took Japan to finally confront their deflationary crisis. That began in 1990, and seems to be ending now.

The middle class that helped run it up in 82' & 85' are tapped. ALSO there's a tremendious difference in technology ie.....communication!

Time will tell as always.

Wishing ALL a warm Christmas and a GOLDen New Year!!!!!

What is your opinion on CAU's latest press release. Sounds positive to me and even more positive if gold decides to go for a ride.

Well, well, well, I go away for a few weeks, come back and what do I see on Kitco - squabbling, personal attacks, some new ( and old ) "know it all" participants. Oh well, nothing new here, especially when markets play with our "know-how" and deal some good/bad news to everybody, but the life goes on ;- )

LGB, regarding your theme "the US is the best", here is my view based on the history of all powerful nations. I know that I will get a lot of heat from many of my countrymen for this view, but that does not prevent me from expressing my opinion. Mind you all that I have selected the US as the homeland for me and my children some eighteen years ago, so dont accuse me to have any interest to see the USA demise.

You can identify just about three phases in the history of all powerful nations: 1 ) creation ( mostly based on new ideas, freedom from old imposing power, and mostly associated with conquer and bloody history to impose your culture on "less worthy", e.g., Indian nations in the American continent. 2 ) prosper ( mostly based on economic advances - nations which grew only on military superiority, and do not achieve the equal economic superiority, fade away much faster ) . This prosperity attracts most of the brain power from the other nations and foster the cultural, scientific, and artistic advancement. 3 ) decline ( mostly associated with arrogance, waste, moral decline, etc. ) To cut this post short, lets just focus on the decline when the most powerful concede their leading position to some other country ( and sometimes fade away ) .

In most cases, you can find typical signs of decline:

- concentration of power and money lead to a significant level of wasteful spending by government ( whatever form it takes ) , as well as individuals

- there is a decline of morals where "everything goes"

- to maintain its economic growth the nation has to expand its trade way beyond its borders

- this expansion is less and less manageable and the nation is loosing its capability to manage all crises ( be it military, trade, religious, ect. ) with more and more "trouble spots" showing up

- nations is becoming more and more "money center" but uses the other nations to provide cheap labor to produce. It becomes much more like a parasite feeding on others but feeling fully justified to do that not realizing that it will eventually lead to its decline

- at this stage the nation is usually at its peak in technological, scientific, and artistic advances, it attracts foreigners to "learn" but many of them take away this knowledge to their own homeland

- in most societies there is one trait which becomes predominant in judging "success" ( e.g., religion beliefs, monetary success, military skills ) and chasing this fetish suppresses any other values ( in the US it is, without any doubt, the monetary success )

- nation looses "open mind", and understanding of "others", judge everybody by its own standards tries to impose its model on all other countries because without considering the cultural and other differences, claiming "ours is the best"

The list is longer than that. Show me one culture, nation, society from the past which did not display these characteristics just before its fall. As far as I can judge, the US ostensibly displays all these traits and I believe it has reached its peak and began its decline. I dont know how long itll take before we are "dethroned", however, take a note that the "creation-prosper-decline" cycle is shorter for every new "power", mostly due to technological advances which rushes the nation from the prosper to the waste and decline phase.

Please, dont play the "democracy" as distinguishing factor. Democracy is a very relative concept and it gives in ( without a doubt ) to a predominant trait ( which would be money in the good ol USofA )

As much as I dont like the future ( its my kids who will be living it ) I cant cover my eyes and say this is business as usual.

JMHO - Miro

Read in the Financial Times that Robbin Rubin & AG where on the hill explaining the serious problems in Asia. They where meeting with a Republican group to consider more funding for the IMF of an additional US$14 billion. They are concerned that without the funding the situation may become unstable.

With upward pressure on gold you have to know that they have to be
sweating it out. The selling pressure seems to have lessened or has it?
Perhaps what we are seeing is more buying interest which makes it that
much more difficult to push prices down. Am still convinced that we will
see a default in the gold market and that in itself will trigger the
SHORT SQUEEZE! As far as Japan stepping up to the plate, there is little
doubt that continued pressure on currencies will force them them to dump
U.S.Treasuries and INVEST in Gold.The distribution phase of the bull has
begun as paper moves from strong to weak hands. Short the Dow go Long
Gold.A sell program that knocks 90 points off the Dow in less than thirty
minutes is what I call Fear!

You missed all the spectacular accomplishments of the U.S. the past few decades, but I won't bore the readers with redundant reposts of what I've said many times. I don't agree with you but I defend your right to say it. And glad you have that right here..in the U.S.A., not many other countries welcome criticism from their people, happily, in this kind of democracy, constructive criticism IS welcome.

Good to see you back miro. I would like to get your thoughts on where we are with respect to Y2K. Are we making progress? Are we getting farther behind? Where are we now at the beginning of 1998 compared to where we were 6 months ago? Thanks

Right to honor America. America has achieved because of freedom/ which is now under attack by financial interests because freedom does not help profits.

Right to honor America. America has achieved because of freedom/ which is now under attack by financial interests because freedom does not help profits.

I was performing a records examination at the North Pole Court House this morning....WHEN WHAT TO MY EYES I DID SEE! Santa has hocked his sleigh to borrow funds to buy Microsoft shares on a strong recommendation from Dom Battipaglia. What's worse is that the shares were bought on margin. The sleigh is collateral for a term note that matures tomorrow at the originating bank, the Gold Bank of the North Pole. There are no renewal or roll-over provisions contained in the loan document.

Further examination revealed that the bank is owned by the Eb. Scrooge family of London. I called Mr. Scrooge's office, but he had departed for the North Pole in order to inspect the sleigh, and presumably, take possession tomorrow at noon. Mr. Scrooge, by reputation, has an enormous appetite for gold and deer meat.

If the morally-defunct stockbrokers ( they've been very, very bad boys and girls ) are expecting Santa and his toy show tomorrow on their street ( Wall Street ) and in their houses...I'm quite afraid they will be sorely disappointed. UNCLE SCROOGE IS DRIVING THE SLEIGH AND HE'S TAKIN' NAMES AND KICKIN' BUTT!!!!! ( and eatin' Rudolph sandwiches ) AND TO ALL A GOODNIGHT.

EB: Punching a heavy bag----hahahahaha....go gold!

Reefer, re your 17:27, it's not MY opinion that the U.S. workers are productive, it's impirical data that has been reported many times in recent years, that we have the highest productivity/worker in the world.

Your observations are well and good, but I'll believe the empirical data over the anecdotal stories any day.

SDRer: Enjoyed your 19:31 FT post. Most Americans are unware of the trauma of war and financial uncertainty. However, there is I think a twitch of uncertaintly reflected in the recent purchases of gold coins by Americans. Probably less than 0.1% are aware. In Germany the refuge of gold in uncertain times is much more well-developed, as your post clearly indicates. The ground swell that drives our gold market is going to come from the average citizen, and even the Central Banks will have to step aside.

I don't think we can say we have a solid gold rally ( pardon the pun ) but I think we can comfortably say that we have a gold bottom. Our silver rally may be just the thing to get gold going too! People will notice! And we don't even have a "whiff" of inflation in our official US indicators!

Aurator where are you? Just how many phrases in the English Language use gold and silver to mean something precious -- or the best? I would guess hundreds! I would guess that this tradition is ingrained in most languages of the world. Those who disagree will have to ignore thousands of years of history -- of currency debasements -- and inflation.

Down 8.99 ( .06% ) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Whatever the Russians say is worthless. They are the biggest charity case in the world these days and ain't likely to upset the applecart. I think you will get nothing but the party line ( no pun intended ) .

KCT

In the spirit of the day, I say "Merry Christmas" to all you tough birds and a happy ( and prosperous ) New Year! ( May your G & D predictions never come to pass in 1998! )

Uh, just one more thing, can you BELIEVE the drawdown of another 5 mil in SIlver and 1.5 mil more after market? $10.00 Silver here we come! ( RJ, where are ya dude? and what's happening to yer Platinum? The plat. AE's I bought last week are losin ground! )

This has been a special year... because you shared...a thank you and
and most enjoyable holiday season and blessed new year to you and your family!!!

Just one MORE tiny little nit to pick. Don't be callin me no damn pinko socialist dude! I voted for Ronald Reagan and was more than pleased with the job he did, and furthermore, I'm about as conservative as conservative gets, though I am far more liberal ( as you have read ) when it comes to fiscal policy than I was when I was younger ( and less wise ) .

I'd love to see the Govt. tighten up on it's extravagant spending/waste, quit needlessly throwing away billions in medicare fraud, SS benefits for the elderly wealthy ( who most certainly did NOT pay in their fair share into this pyramid scheme ) , Environmental whacko bucks where they do no good, contributing billions to foreign Govts. who spit in our face, etc etc etc. I'm all for paying down the federal debt in this time of plenty ( fat chance eh? )

But as to FED policy, AG is the best we've ever had and I'm behind the guy 100%. remember the evil Volcker days....

this is my first post on kitco. lurker since oct.
great site. lots of info - lots of entertainment.
my problem is: can't reload metals prices - they
are stuck on n.y. @19:20 -gold$294.20;silver$6.25.
logging off & hitting reload both don't work. can
anyone help with current prices or advice on how to
to get "unstuck". thx

Running Machinery:

Books on Political Science treat at length of the machinery of government. But there has been little or nothing done in the formulation and arrangement of the practical truths of honorable practical politics of how, through the voice of citizenship, to help run this machinery of government of which publicists have written.

Immoral Programme:

There is a world of jangling over questions, as if the difficult thing in politics was to induce men to be at heart in favor of the wise and honest; whereas, in all times, the common citizen has been anxious for that very thing; but little in regard to the real difficulty securing the triumph of this common sense and common honesty in the face of the determined opposition, of secret alliance, a vicious minority, and the self-seeking.

There is much about the follies of politics and the vices of society; but little as to how a sober, honest citizen may help to thwart the shrewd and cruel tactics by which the vicious intrigues of the few are made the masters of the many; and that little, more frequently than otherwise, sagely advises a political immorality.

For to do as the vicious minority does involves an abandonment of open and honorable methods, as if one could secure the honor of his country by abandoning his own.

Much has been written about intelligence as the safeguard of our country; little to make one intelligent in an honest effort to be one of the guards.

India, Indonesia, Malaysia UP, Japan, Hong Kong, China flat, South Korea down as expected..not much of a meltdown....

Hello JTF. I hope all is well with you. Here is a URL for William Shakespeare. May I suggest you type in the word "gold" in the search line. I believe you will see that he had much to say about gold. http://www.prsg.cs.usyd.edu.au/~matty/Shakespeare/test.html

Hello JTF. I hope all is well with you. Here is a URL for William Shakespeare. May I suggest you type in the word "gold" in the search line. I believe you will see that he had much to say about gold. http://www.prsg.cs.usyd.edu.au/~matty/Shakespeare/test.html

It ain't working. My overnight via DTN is gold at 296 +.5 and silver at 6.29 +.047.

KCT

Auric, if you judge the progress based on where we are now comparing to six months ago, I would say that we are in much better shape. However, considering that we are way behind, and running out of time, it is still depressing. It is a joke when you see that only 20% of companies have the definite plan how to deal with this issue but on the other hand 90% of companies say that they expect be done by the end of next year. There is still a significant misunderstanding on management leveel how this issue will exhibit itself in their companies, and when they finally get the whole picture it is usually followed by the "paralysis phase" trying to figure out what to do about it.
BTW, I just got back from assessing the progress in one of the largest entities in the USA - the most civilian employees, it touches your everyday life, etc. They are making progress, however there are lot of deficiencies, simplifications, and potential bottlenecks which may create the problem in coming months.
Again, it is the management and budget issue - not so much technological issue, however management may be more concerned with current profit line instead of dealing with problem which will show up a couple of years down the road.

Thank you for your insight on Asian Markets. A tremendously BIG help!

LGB: Why don't you summarize what we are good at in America, and what is not so good? Let's be balanced and choose 5 good things and 5 bad things. If you are unflinchingly positive about the "good ol USA", our foreign Kitcoites will wonder what you have been smoking or drinking.

There is no country in the world without major problems of somekind -- even Switzerland -- highest suicide rate in the world, last I checked, but the highest standard of living in the world too.

One good thing is the computer revolution -- homegrown in the US, and massproduced/marketed even better outside the US.

One bad thing is what the HMO's are doing to US Medical care -- the average middle class American is now being taken for a ride -- all in the name of a "good old American profit". It will take many lawsuits before we return to where the patient ( generally ) came first. Forty years of "free" medicine underwritten by the Government finally caught up with us, didn't it?

I believe in America, just as you. But my belief in America is my belief in the average well-educated Human -- wherever he/she lives in this world. The world will be an excellent place to live in if all of the worlds governments and peoples abide by the US Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and all of the Amendments. The US is drifting away from those ideals, and with this so is our support drifting in the rest of the world, who wonder what we are doing to ourselves.

You see, others outside the US see our problems far better than you or I. The Kitco world is not an audience of your American peers.

GC G8 Feb. Gold 295.8 +0.3
Kitco S L O W tonight - a good sign?

HAL9000: Always a pleasure posting with you.

Could you repost your Shakespearean web site? I think the net may have garbled part of your post.

Haven't heard from you in some time -- you haven't been occupied by that Jupiter -- Europa flyby/orbit ( ? ) have you? It was Galileo wasn't it? 200 miles from Europa at closest approach?

Interesting that NASA is now investigating what was mentioned in "2010" isn't it? Liquid water on Europa? Perhaps life on Europa too! Interesting times, aren't they! I think a few people in NASA know far more about extraterrestrial life than they think the average American should know -- but of course there is no proof of this. Not just NASA, either, I think, but a small number of people know all over the world.

Opinions? As I recall you were programmed to tell the truth -- how about a hint?

Sorry for delay.
The way you asked this question demonstrates that you know
the answer. Yes, it's not dead, and it could be put into
service again if situation requires to do so...
However, there is also a strong opposition to communism, backed up
by a big money and supported by considerable part of population.
I feel that if nothing really bad happens in the nearest 10-15 years,
we can forget about it being a serious threat.

My son has requested internet access!

Retail sales slow here, up only 2% and @ Just for Feet, they are open late, real late - SALES w/ lack luster performance with 2+% unemployment. Go Figure.

Dear LGB_2

I quote:
"And glad you have that right here..in the U.S.A., not many other countries welcome criticism from their people, happily, in this kind of democracy, constructive criticism IS welcome."

AND

Earlier you wrote:

"This is the primary philisophical difference between GoldBugs and those who believe in this country and it's economy"

Just a couple of points if I might.

1 ) Kitco is CANADIAN not American as you seem to profess in your first statement and
2 ) Who's country is "this" country? If it's the United States, I believe you have a rather myopic view of your small world. You seem to think that A ) only Americans exist on this site B ) no-one, if they don't "love" your country are worthy and C ) The internet is only avilable in your back yard.

That seems a rather small viewpoint to assert on a GLOBAL network. Perhaps, in the future, you might include the rest of us in your discussions, as we're also "out there" just in case you hadn't noticed.

Have a Nice Christmas BTW .....

TTFN

Al - the good news out of Montana as well as Briggs. Hold on, it will payoff handsomely. Can not believe all the deals out there! Patience!!

Miro - Vitej nazpet. Uz jsme te postradali. Jak se mas?? Pozdrav z Kolorada.

In your response to MOinTO you mentioned Russian "party line".

What kind of party are talking about?

Also, I would substitude "worthless" to "extremely confusing",
please remember they still got at least 6,000 nukes.

Otherwise, I agree that in this case Russian Central Bank rep
delivered some kind of bull sh*t, like usual...

March AG up 6 cents, the high of the session so far.

Excellent decision to load up on pure silver stocks 2 months ago!!!
-I believe that Silver Stnd ( SSRIF ) is yet to catch up. Excellent choice to add to your porfolio even at this time.

EK: When things are going wrong the last thing you sell is what is appreciating in value--I think. So the selling of individual gold holdings will take place after the Asian money is all gone. Since the domestic prices of "stables' will not fall for a long time--months--you continue to use the local currency until it is all gone or of no value. You don't sell your one appreciating asset first.

Sales, especially big ticket items in Canada have been slumping for the
last three months and if they donot pickup in the new year we are liable
to see recession. I am tired of governments and financial gurus telling
the people of Canada that things are great! The truth of the matter is
that the average working guy is living paycheck to paycheck and in alot
of cases is using credit cards to maintain lifestyle. Unlike our noble
government he cannot print money and sooner or later ends up bankrupt.
Sooner or later you have to expect the debt balloon will pop and we will
have our first taste of deflation. We in the paper world are all living
on borrowed time and if we are smart we will have time to protect ourseves. Thats why i am 80% long in GOLD!

6 Pak: Your earlier ruminations on the mechanics of a democracy are unequal to the task as long as "democratic" governments have the power to divide and conquer via the public purse. When goodies are handed out to one group or another, the inexorable pull of "something for nothing" overcomes all principle. In time the function of government becomes what we experience today. Merely the operation of competing groups. All with the same narrow focus: what can we get?

Until the operation of government is severely restricted and confined to specific functions, it is absolutely hopeless. IMO. Allowing it to vote bennies for the people without paying for them is the beginning of the end. ....... and, in large measure, it forms the basis for why we are here at this site.

G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

Great Central Mines have recently acquired Wiluna Mines and Eagle Mining. Normandy now have 15% of GCM, and it is more than likely they will be the subject of a full acquistion by Normandy ( a Rothchild interest?? ) .

J Gutnick is now focused upon Johnson Well Mining and Centaur Mining and Exploration. Johnsons Well Mining are focused upon "virgin" ground in the Duketon map sheet in Western Australia, and are making STRONG progress. Something BIG will come out of this.

Now rumour has it, that Homestake, Gencor of South Africa and possibly Anglo American? ( or some other party ) are going to form a new entity in Australia and elsewhere? Homestake have now acquired Plutonic. Normandy, will acquire Creat Central ( Wiluna and Eagle ) , and Anglo/Minorco have established an NEW office in Perth WA. It is further rumoured that Gencor may acquire Western Mining Corporation. What this all means is that the Wiluna-Perseverence greenstone belt, the Yandal Belt, the Mt Fisher belt, and the Duketon Belt MAY end up being controlled by a single entity. Again it is relevant that, by virtue of the geographical size of these areas - VERY large, the exploration is STILL at an early stage.

Another entity is the Intermin Resource Corporation who are/were in JV with Pegasus Gold Inc ( who are at risk on default of US$353 million via Mt Todd ) . The principal project is the Binduli North project near Kalgoorlie, which is at the pre-resource exploration stage, but does have potential for 2 to 3 million ounces resource. Early days, but Intermin are BADLY under funded.

Aye, Haggis

Do not be concerned about putting down the "Good Old USofA". Yes, it is the country that has given considerably to the world. No, the people, citizens of the USofA are not the enemy. The Corporate interests of the USofA, are as much the enemy of the citizen's of the USofA, as they are the enemy of other nations. Citizens of your nation, and my nation, must work together to put a stop to the violence, vicious and cruel tactics, of these dishonest business interests.

"As we view the achievements of aggregated capital, we discover the existence of trusts, combinations and monopolies, while the citizen is struggling far in the rear or is trampled to death beneath an iron heel. Corporations, which should be the carefully restrained creatures of the law and the servants of the people, are fast becoming the people's masters..."
President Grover Cleveland, Annual Message to Congress, 1888

Earl:Ya don't know what gov'ment 'goodies' are till you've seen the pathetic political system in Cape Breton-Atlantic Canada....Deck update: Demo job almost complete and set for big fire and all lumber moved into the basement and away from snow-rain-sleet.....

You are correct, the URL was garbled. Here is the correct URL for William Shakespeare... http://www.psrg.cs.usyd.edu.au/~matty/Shakespeare/test.html Merry Christmas

Anyone know how much gold was confiscated from private citizens by the US Government in the 1930's?

G'Day,

I TAKE IT THAT YOU ARE NOT AMERICAN.

You really should calm down. Try and start each day with three long blacks, a Coke and a packet of Peter Stuyvesant. I am sure that most Americans do!!

Aye, Haggis

LGB, no I do not disregard all accomplishments we made in the last few decades. As I said in my post, societies usually achieve their biggest accomplishments just before the downturn. BTW, this Internet computer technology accomplishment is sooo slow today that you can compare it to a speed of drumbeat messages used in Africa long time ago ;- ) I am trying to make this post for at least couple of hours.

Anyway, accomplishments is always relative to your current level of knowledge and skills. Using that criterion, brain surgery ( or other medical procedures ) performed 3000 years ago in Egypt ( with patient surviving for many years after the surgery ) , astrological knowledge in Mayan and Incas societies, reality and colors of prehistoric paintings found in caves, etc., were much bigger accomplishments than us putting man on the moon. Yet, despite these accomplishments, their societies came and were gone the long time ago just as everything else in life.

Refer... It is not that USA workers are productive or not...it is how
much do they cost?? I agree that USA workers are productive but how do
you complete with $3.25 per day in Mexico??
I go to these factoriews and deal with the people who are just as good as
I have seen in USA. I feel a sense of lost, that so many jobs are going south, but what is one to do?? If the American people whould understand
that the Mexican can and are doing the work that we did..just as good and
just as efficient as we did it perhaps they would wake up and understand
the real problem is not how efficient we are but how much we are willing
to work for !!. I am America first, but we must understand that it is
not that the world will come up to our standard, but us coming down to
theirs. I am very fearfull of what the future may have in store.
Emerald Heights

Refer... It is not that USA workers are productive or not...it is how
much do they cost?? I agree that USA workers are productive but how do
you complete with $3.25 per day in Mexico??
I go to these factoriews and deal with the people who are just as good as
I have seen in USA. I feel a sense of lost, that so many jobs are going south, but what is one to do?? If the American people whould understand
that the Mexican can and are doing the work that we did..just as good and
just as efficient as we did it perhaps they would wake up and understand
the real problem is not how efficient we are but how much we are willing
to work for !!. I am America first, but we must understand that it is
not that the world will come up to our standard, but us coming down to
theirs. I am very fearfull of what the future may have in store.
Emerald Heights

Refer... It is not that USA workers are productive or not...it is how
much do they cost?? I agree that USA workers are productive but how do
you complete with $3.25 per day in Mexico??
I go to these factoriews and deal with the people who are just as good as
I have seen in USA. I feel a sense of lost, that so many jobs are going south, but what is one to do?? If the American people whould understand
that the Mexican can and are doing the work that we did..just as good and
just as efficient as we did it perhaps they would wake up and understand
the real problem is not how efficient we are but how much we are willing
to work for !!. I am America first, but we must understand that it is
not that the world will come up to our standard, but us coming down to
theirs. I am very fearfull of what the future may have in store.
Emerald Heights

Prognostications for 1998

( plagiarized from http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/finan.htm )

( edited )
Thousands of years of history support the value of precious metals as an uncorruptible store of value when paper currencies fail. Over a recent time period that is a drop in the ocean as compared with known human history, world currencies have been disconnected from backing by gold and/or silver. This clears the way for unlimited creation of credit by central banks. When financial turmoil runs away the result tends to be either deflationary recession or hyperinflation; the former eventually resulting in "controlled inflation" as illustrated by the actions of Roosevelt in the '30s, the latter destroying paper savings very rapidly. In either case precious metals come into their own as an investment.

Moody's "junk" credit rating for South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia means that there is about $275 billion of debt that is at high risk of not being repaid- this will place further demands on the IMF for "rescue" funds which it no longer has, and promises further financial collapse in the region as businesses fail, feeding back to Japanese and other creditors who will not be repaid. With Asian economies threatening to fall into the deflationary recession or hyperinflation scenario, the interest in investments in precious metals as insurance against currency debasement is likely to increase in 1998, but in the shorter term precious metals, especially gold, are likely to fall in value as cash-strapped Asians sell the family silver ( or gold ) and the strength in the US dollar as a "flight to quality" investment makes gold appear to weaken in dollar terms ( gold remains relatively constant in value when compared against a basket of world currencies ) . When Western economies develop rocketing deficits on their import/export balances due to collapsed Asian currencies making imported Asian goods very cheap while exported goods can not be sold because of their increased price in local currencies plus impecuniousness of the consumers in the export markets, the Western currencies will be devalued.

Since the strong dollar related to a low gold price, so a weakening dollar will come with a strengthening gold price. The weakness in the stock markets, which have been struggling to recover their August levels, will solidify into a bear market, with or without a crash, while investors moving into gold will boost the price. Due to the large ratio between paper investments and the total value of available precious metals, the rise in the gold price will be substantial. Investors do not necessarily have to turn into 100% goldbugs to trigger a bull market in gold; it should suffice that a majority of investors seek for themselves a 10 or 20% porfolio content of precious metal, according to traditional prudent investment advice. When this occurs, central banks will no longer wish to sell gold because it will then of course be an appreciating asset. Furthermore, new supplies of gold will be diminished because of uneconomic mining operations closed in the recent gold price collapse. Combined with the reversal of central bank sales, that makes for a very strong potential gold and precious metals market recovery.

This type of support on a multi day move has to have the shorts in a
state of confusion and fear.Minute by minute as gold gains momentum the
shorts have to question themselves and their decision to short a metal
like gold which can turn on a dime and make itself very difficult to
purchase. When will the first hedge fund throw in the towel and really
disrupt this market by covering their entire position? Any ideas?

G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

LGB , LBJ - same person?!?!. Are you from Texas?

Aye, Haggis

Is it true that Kalgoorlie used to be very well known for it's wool production, and sheep ranching.

Thanks for your reply. I would like your opinion on one other question. How much disruption of the world economy do you think Y2K will have?

Our yocal newspaper Mad magazine...er the Cape Breton Post actually has referred to gov'ment HAND-OUTS as GOODIES for Cape Breton...Our finance ( ?? ) minister Manning MacSomethin just announced that some Korean businessman ( ?? ) was buying the National Sea Products plant in nearby Louisbourg and re-opening it....Cost 9 million ( 6 million in provincial and Federal HAND-OUTS and the other three million is a loan to the Korean ( that Manning Macsomethin said he didn't have to repay ) ---wish I could get a loan like that ( grin thing ) ....Not the faintest idea of how business-capitalism works at any level of this society....The cost of these make-work jobs is 44,000/worker,courtesy of the gov'ment....

115 billion market cap vaporized today------

toilet paper-------

Flash has given us a site that makes Kitco seem to be a repository of happiness, light and optimism----Negativity abounds at : http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/finan.htm .

PLUS many many interesting links.

Steady: glad to be back. Vesele Vanoce a vsechno nejlepsi do noveho roku.

To you all: that would be Marry Christmas and all the best in the New Year.

Hey, lets take it easy on each other on this site ( at least for a while ;- )

I feel that many shorts have done very well so far....therefore they have a bit of money to burn... they covered prior moves and took BIG profits...affording them the chance to "short it again sam". Greed is a powerful thing.

G'Day.

No Mate, you are getting "us" mixed up with Kiwi's and their national pastime.

Aye, Haggis

The Hatt: The timing and velocity with which the hedge funds begin to reverse course will undoubtedly be influenced by how well they are doing in those areas where they put the gold funds to work. ie, bonds and etc.

If they begin to fear that their gold carry paper trade is in jeopardy, they will begin to cover in a hurry. The paper side of their transactions will likely be as important as a sudden swing in the gold market. IMO.

As "Frustrated" pointed out the other day, the shorts are sitting on the better part of a $70 gain on their short position. They are not in a position where they should feel especially threatened by a relief rally in the $300 range. ....... It would also help if they were to get the impression that central banks will cease being so accomodating to their ( shorts ) needs in the future.