Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:00 - ID#364147)
Earl..................gettin my posts in before this site or my ISP blocks me OUT
BTW: Once deck boards were taken off----a true abortion of a framing job was seen ( such pride in workmanship in CB ) ....Typical of a society that takes NO responsibility for their actions ( Socialism or whatever this is,SUCKS! ) ....G'nite all~~~~~~~~~~~

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:06 - ID#335190)
Earl @ 23:30
I agree with your take on "Competing groups"

Yes, That is why we [you & I : ) ] are @ this site.

Yet, I expect when push comes to shove, as to the best way to resolve the issue of competing groups. I doubt we will agree. I believe these competing groups are designed by corporate interests ( central bankers ) to cause the disagreement between citizen's. Re: I can hire half the working class to kill the other half.

I understand that in 1986 USofA 5,000,000 "welfare industry" workers were employed to care for 50,000,000 welfare recipients. ( all inclusive welfare ie social safety net ) Canada is 32,000,000 people!

In addition, I believe that "Corporate Welfare" drains the wealth and spirit of a nation, not people welfare. *Balance*, and people's interests first, are the order of the nation, not profit at any cost. Profit is a by-product, of good business.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:09 - ID#286230)
Ted: Its not socialism you are complaining about-- it is a successful national program to keep the loosers of the country bottled up in one part of it. If they didn't get a few 100 million a year the next thing you know they would be spreading around the country and screwing things up in the productive areas. This actually happened in 1949 when we got stuck with Newfoundland and they decided by the 10's of thousands to come to Toronto. There is no way we want it to happen again.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:10 - ID#335190)
Ted @ 00:00
Socialism or the price suits the job, and the job suits the price.
Cheap is etc. etc.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:12 - ID#345268)
Current Au price?
What is the current price of Au?. Is the HK market open tommorrow night?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:13 - ID#26669)
Flash & Miro thanks
Flash: That was a great url you published. It has links to a host of bear market pages.
Miro: Thanks for your discussions of what the market holds in the future.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:18 - ID#335190)
Selby @ 00:09
If that is your take on Newfoundland, what the hell must be your take on the French Canadian. Oh to be so perfect eh!. Stones and glass, Selby

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:25 - ID#286230)
Hey 6pak --what have you got against French Canadians?

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:29 - ID#294232)
spot price: just broke 295
The shorts are getting really nervous and I cannot say I blame them. Who
in their right mind would want to be short a pm after walking through 4
levels of support in the same number of days! Watch the fireworks when
gold breaks through three hundred. Tommorow???? Tonight???????? Better
yet Xmas day???????

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:31 - ID#347457)
@Auric and how much disruption due to Y2K
Auric, due to my work I do have a problem to make "gloom predictions" on public forum. So, let me just try to express some facts, logic, and you make your own conclusion.

- World economies are closely interconnected ( e.g., impact of Asia crisis on the rest of the world economies )

- Most of the business transactions and information exchange is done through computer networks or somehow utilize computer technology.

- Failure of this infrastructure supporting worldwide economic activities would definitely slow down these activities ( sometimes REALLY slow down )

- I am not excited about progress in solving Y2K problem in the USA.

- Other countries are way behind the US in solving this problem ( from information I receive from my colleagues in different countries ) .

- You may be ready but if your business partner is not ( be it a supplier or buyer ) your business will suffer too.

- Your government may be ready ( ha, ha, ha ) , but if other countries are not your country is still in trouble.

- Failure of one bank brings unrest to financial markets, failure of few ( or incorrect processing of financial transaction ) banks makes financial markets tremble.

I was not interested in gold before I started dealing with Y2K issue. Once Ive got deeply involved with Y2K, I was turning to investment in gold following the old rule that when there is a problem gold will shine. Well, now some of the poster try to tell me its not true anymore. It may have changed, however, while I am loosing some money, I believe that I make it back before this Y2K thing is over. Most of the other investments depends much more on properly functioning computers ;- )

BTW, how come that Asia stock markets are tanking but gold keeps going out ( mind you that the US and London market are still closed ) Oh well looks like some "know it all" were wrong ;- )

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:34 - ID#24140)
Asians buying gold crapola
to all

A new breed of mongoloid subterrainnean has surfaced - These guys

like to argue about whether or not asians are buying gold - which I

dont know how to prove one way or the other. I offer this

1. ** people tend to buy things when they go UP not DOWN until they

reach concensus that the thing has gone UP TOO FAR - viz - US

stockmarket. I think Asians really are buying gold but neither I nor anyone else can prove it.

2. ** During the period of gold's decline, It was generally assumed that

asians WERE buying gold - BUT gold went down anyway.

Thus I dont give a happy ***** if asians are buying gold are not

and I think being concerned about it is a stupid waste of time. Gold

is going up - relax - lets dont psyche ourselves out - enjoy - lets

talk about the movies or baseball or cricket. One of the hardest

times to avoid screwing yourself is when the market is going in your

favor. I think the REAL problem is that sods that WRITE THESE POSTS

didnt buy gold and they are envious about it and wish to shake us

out of our position - up their kilts!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:34 - ID#31868)
Get Camdesuss

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:35 - ID#393224)
Merry Christmas to all
On this Antipodean Christmas Eve I would like to wish all Kitcoites a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

The temperature here is in the thirties ( high eighties ) , the dogs are suffering with their fur coats and the people are suffering in shorts and singlets. We are doing our best to maintain body fluids on this very hot afternoon, and believe me are feeling no pain. Tomorrow we will have a cold Christmas lunch of banana prawns, lobsters, oysters, mussels, smoked salmon, French bread,salads, various cheeses and fruits with lashings of champagne and vino to wash it all down. The lounge room will be a disaster area with wrappings and pressies everywhere.

Life is great. Family and friends. Precious is up. Eating too much, drinking too much. Such abundance as has never been seen in the history of the earth.

To all of my Kitco mates from all continents-- you have provided me with the greatest gift of all --food for the mind and soul. To one and all -- I thank you.

At this time I want to take a moment to spare a thought for those less fortunate. Amongst all this economic turmoil we tend to forget that there are real people out there who are losing their life savings, self respect and dignity. To all of them I wish good tidings. To those without abundance, may your lives improve in the new year.

To all, Cheers from down under.

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:36 - ID#294232)
au: spot $295.30 and CLIMBING!!!!!!!!!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:41 - ID#255151)

Thanks, I'm gonna save your 00:31 post. And FWIW, I
agree with your Y2K assessments.

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:41 - ID#24140)
Disaster over the festive season ????

For Hatt - I have been thinking the same -

All the funds that are short trying to cover between Christmas and

New Years into a thin market that will be closed intermittently.

Mayhem fear panic madness terror - Couldnt happen to nicer guys.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:42 - ID#227238)
6 pak: Actually, we are in complete agreement. The capital interests are merely a part of same, intramural, competing mechanism. They may not ( always ) seek cash directly but they always seek special privilege and favors which are quickly turned into monetary gain.

Unfortunately, this form of competition only brings out the worst rather than the best in people. Supplicants are rarely proud of their ignominy. And, democratically speaking, we are but animals at a free for all.

Is it any wonder that government finds it necessary to remind us, on a daily basis, that we are all equal; when at each turn of it's majestic hand it makes one group more equal than another??? ....... Should there be any question as to why we treat each other incivilly? .... Begging for a share of the handouts is hardly an honorable course. As citizens we have allowed government to direct us from a path that allows us to greet each other as equals.

Common decency would demand that government treat all citizens equal. Not play one group against another. Lacking that, those so treated, will display the same lack of decency as it's government displays. How could it be any different?

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:43 - ID#24140)
Have a nice one

Good on yer, Nick

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:48 - ID#372344)
@ US$ vs GOLD
Further to my post last week and the observation I made,that GOLD
was moving up against the US$ up another .70 tonite ,even though the US$ is higher vs YEN 130.40 tonite, still continues to be the case. This
is the third trading session to reflect this change, from Gold moving
down vs the US$. This along with M3 rapid growth, along with IMF
( US$ ) commitments indicate to me that they are certainly PRINTING ( Inflating ) in an attempt to stop the vicious spiral of
potential Deflation.
The rise thus far, of GOLD vs US$, which in IMHO will continue,
is meant to be a monetary as well as a mass psychological signal that THEY are INFLATING, and thus DEFLATION ,THEY hope will not
occur. If one believes, as does AG, Gold is an INFLATION indicator,
than necessarily it is also a DEFLATION indicator, thus I'm convinced
THEY are INFLATING in an attempt to get out of DEFLATION.
Stay Tuned!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:51 - ID#335190)
Selby @ 00:25

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:53 - ID#345268)
To Tzadeak
How do you explain the current strength of the Yen vs. the embattered Asian currencies? Some Yen wekness is a must for a significant rally in gold. Am I missing something?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:54 - ID#286230)
Well then my friend watch your own stones--we all live in glass houses and reveal our own pitards --even watchers of morality and keepers of correctness.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:54 - ID#335190)
Earl @ 00:42
Great comments, Yes, we do in fact agree. Well said.
Thanks Take Care.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:55 - ID#253259)
Statistics - you simply have to love them...

In commenting about conditions in the U.S. ( Tue Dec 23 1997 17:16 post ) , you state that 25% of the U.S. population lives below the poverty level. What is the source of this statistic, and how is its value determined?
Poverty statistics are notoriously inaccurate because they fail to take several things into account that are effectively income, like receipt of food stamps, Medicaid, and housing subsidies. See, for example, the following:

where youll read things such as "The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey suggests that most poor families ( as measured by income ) consume much more than their annual incomes would suggest...households of four with incomes below $10,000 spend, on average, more than $23,000 annually."

If you truly do favor the notion of a nanny state that will provide a large social "safety net" to assist those who live below the "poverty level," an interesting statement taken from

makes the point that the nanny states efforts can actually make the problem worse: "The Bureau of the Census has estimated that, in 1994, for example, deducting taxes from income would have increased the percentage of Americans in poverty from 15.1 percent to 23.2 percent."

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:55 - ID#347457)
good night you all
getting late around here - good night

(Wed Dec 24 1997 00:57 - ID#372344)
@ Myrmidon
I'm not sure you read thru my post. GOLD is and has been going up against ALL currencies including US$ and YEN etc... this is the
INFLATION indicator I referred to.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:00 - ID#301318)
For our ever vigilant spook here at Kitco! Yikes!!!

Dubai: Dubai imported a record 66.9 tonnes of gold in November as buyers from the Indian sub-continent and Gulf states took advantage of falling bullion prices, Dubai customs data released on Tuesday showed. The November figure was 88 per cent higher than November 1996 import levels and a step up from the 55.1 tonnes imported in October, the Dubai-division of the World Gold Council ( WGC ) said in a statement based on the customs statistics.
( The Economic Times - India )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:01 - ID#335190)
Selby @ 0054
OK. I will watch my own stones : ) : ) : ) Take Care.

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:01 - ID#294232)
silver at $6.30 moving higher gold @295.25 moving higher!!!!
The time has come for the shorts to test their nerves as well as their
investment ideas. The central Banks must also be looking at their less
than ideal positions. The risk reward factors on lease rates could well
be questioned before this is over. Inflation you bet the U.S. thinks it
can print enough for everyone and Gold has discovered the truth! All we
need at this juncture is one default and the lid will come off of gold!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:01 - ID#253259)
Do you disallow any possibility of an unpredictable or unforseen large negative event when considering the current U.S. market situations? Such events catch most people by surprise.

"In a few months I expect to see the stock market much higher than today."- - Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, 14 days before Wall Street crashed on Black Tuesday, October 29, 1929.

"A severe depression such as 1920-21 is outside the range of probability. We are not facing a protracted liquidation.-" - Post-crash analysis provided by the Harvard Economic Society to its subscribers. After multiple erroneous optimistic forecasts, the Society closed its doors in 1932.

In 1988, Kathryn Dominguez, Ray Fair, and Matthew Shapiro stated in the American Economic Review that econometric modeling techniques of the late 1980s, even when using data unavailable in 1929, would not have forecast the occurrence of the Great Depression.

As you state in your earlier post ( Tue Dec 23 1997 14:08 ) , you place quite a bit of faith in the U.S. economys ability to "flourish because of American workers excellence, ingenuity, work ethic, entrepreneurial spirit, free and democratic society, creativity, and willingness to take risks in order to see the rewards. This is why we have the mightiest economy, the most prosperous corporations, the strongest businesses, the most stable Government, the mightiest currency, on the planet."

Others here have already indicated that the quality of future American workers is highly suspect, particularly in view of an educational system that produces kids who read and reason poorly. At which stages in the U.S. public education system are the qualities of which you boast taught? Please provide some examples, because I suspect many people fail to see any significant efforts to stress these qualities in U.S. public schools, even on a moderate scale.

Educational concerns aside, what is the likelihood that the American economy will continue to flourish regardless of burdens placed upon future American workers by the American government itself? For example, currently the average American spends more per year on taxes than on food, shelter, and clothing COMBINED.

If you check out the 12/23/97 Drudge Report, youll see the following:

According to the latest figures coming out of Washington for Fiscal Year 1997, federal taxes captured 19.8 percent of the gross domestic product [GDP], the highest level since 1945, when federal revenues captured 20.8 percent of GDP. And the previous postwar high of 19.7 percent occurred both in 1969 and 1981, years that were followed by recessions, warns the Institute for Policy Innovation on Monday morning...taxpayers might ask, "Why is the tax bite back up to World War II levels when we are living at peace? Why are we paying taxes at the same level that we were when the nation had leveraged its economy to the max in order to preserve civilization?"

Optimistic estimates of the tax burden that the next generation of American workers will face indicate an overall tax rate of 70%. Under such a tax burden, might it not be difficult for the U.S. economy to flourish in the manner you envision?

You state that you "believe in this country and its economy," and you believe in trying to fix problems. Do you truly not see the above issues as problems? If you do see them as such, what would you suggest to fix them? Maybe you dont view the imposition of a 70% tax rate on your children as a problem.

I suspect that a lot of "Goldbugs" also believe in this country and its economy - its just that theyre sick of governmental mismanagement relative to our future liabilities, as well as governmental incompetence and corruption.

Perhaps you cannot see corruption either, relegating any questions related to officials conduct to the "conspiracy theory" bin. Most such theories are indeed worthless - but that doesnt mean high-level corruption is nonexistent. For example, look at excerpts from a Dec. 11, 1997 article:

"WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Former Housing Secretary Henry Cisneros and three other people were indicted Thursday on 21 counts of obstructing justice and making false statements to the FBI. Barrett's investigation focused on allegations that Cisneros lied about payments he made to his former mistress, Linda Jones. Jones was also indicted.

The Justice Department had determined that Cisneros, who is married, paid Ms. Jones between $48,000 and $60,000 a year from 1990 to 1993. Cisneros served as housing secretary during President Clinton's first term, resigning in November 1996. He is now president of the Univision television network."

Even ignoring the fact that he lied to the FBI, where did he come up with this money? Assume for a moment that he made $200k per year while he held his HUD position. An extra $48k to $60k - AFTER TAXES - might be hard to come by...of course, maybe he employed those ubiquitous American workers characteristics - excellence, ingenuity, work ethic, and entrepreneurial spirit - to generate the money. He was, after all, a member of the "most ethical" Administration in recent history, according to Presidential proclamation...

As another consideration ( my apologies for such a long post ) , what is the likelihood that the American economy will continue to flourish regardless of other social trends? As an example, the labor movement is experiencing a resurgence these days, with stronger leftward-leanings than most realize. See the Dec. 29, 1997 issue of Forbes, p. 60 - "AFL-CIO President John Sweeney got his job in 1995 by joining the Democratic Socialists of America...His view of the U.S. economy: Its like the Ford Edsel we turned out in the 1950s, it just doesnt work." Thats a slightly different perspective on the economy than youre asserting...BTW, the Democratic Socialists of America probably dont share your economic views. If views such as Sweeneys become more widely accepted, the flourishing economy you expect may not exist.

I believe that in Rees-Moggs "Great Reckoning," Chapter 3, entitled "America Follows in Britains Footsteps," provides several viewpoints that should at the very least be considered, as well as pointwise rebutted, if you assert that the American economy is unlikely to experience at least some significant unpleasantry as the future unfolds - the wizardry of you Silicon Valley types notwithstanding.


(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:02 - ID#42371)
Going long the Canadian Dollar
I am thinking of buying March call options. 70 cents trading at c. 55 points. ANy views out there.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:02 - ID#255151)

G'day Nick of Canberra. Merry Christmas to you, Nick@Aussie, aurator, and all our Antipodean friends who have enriched this forum. Go for the Gold mates.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:03 - ID#345268)
To Tzadeak
I read your post, however, why is the yen so strong? It should have melted with the other Asian currencies. Considering Japan's problems the yen should have crashed by now. The Nikkei dove, their economy is in a recession, this yen strength is it temporary or we should expect a currency crisis in Japan similar to Korea's?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:05 - ID#286230)
6pak: Have a great holiday and I hope it snows for your Christmas morning.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:05 - ID#372344)
@ vertigo, GO for it The BoC will raise rates after Christmas.

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:07 - ID#294232)
The last three rate hikes did nothing to prop up the canuck buck! There is talk that we will see another rate hike right after xmas, yet our
economy cannot take too many more. I am short and will stay that way
until I see some direct weakness in the U.S. dollar. The weakness is sure
to attract funds and my call is they will go short for now!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:07 - ID#270224)
Canadian $
The Canadian economy will get creamed if interest rates go up to support the dollar. The Canadian government was warned by a Canadian bank economist that the economy could only survive if the dolloar floated down so that our resource based export market could survive. I think the dollar will stay below $0.70 for a while until this whole Asian mess stabilizes.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:10 - ID#227238)
The Hatt: I think you are being unnecessarily exhuberant. I can share your enthusiasm but we have some distance to go before 'major tits' get caught in the wringer. ..... Though it would be a lovely Christmas gift for some of our favorite folks.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:12 - ID#286230)
What this country needs is a good 50 cent dollar. I'd love to lock in some 10-15% money for about 10 years. My guess is 68 cents will be the bottom and more likley 69.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:13 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Here comes Santa on his Golden Sleigh!
My hat is off to Gold-Eagle GOLD Index Fund chart
which showed the decline, bottom and turn.

Merry Christmas to all.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:18 - ID#344253)
Japan, 600 billion $ gorilla
I believe Robert Rubin is about to have a nightmare. In my opinion Japan will start buying Gold in a big way. This will serve two purposes: 1 ) take away the so-called safe haven status of the US$ and Treasury debt instruments; that will stop the capital flight from SE Asia. 2 ) the Japanese government will gain credibility in the area; that will bolster the Yen and restore confidence in local financial institutions. Not too much different that what Roosevelt did in '35 when he confiscated all our gold, the japanese don't have to confiscate they can just buy it with our debt.

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:18 - ID#294232)
There is little doubt that we have not crossed the fifty yard line yet
however we do have the ball and that is very dangerous to the shorts.
They are used to being on the offensive and suddenly they are playing
defense on what I hope is home field. Yes i admitt we could see this
short exciting rally peter out but somehow I think that Japan will see
the light and continue buying! The shorts have been arrogant for a long
time now so it is nice to see them SWEAT!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:19 - ID#372344)
@ Myrmidon
Japan is no Korea. Japan is the world's 2nd largest ecomony, and
IF GOD forbid the YEN collapsed like the Huang ,Korea world's 11
economy,the whole world's economy would tank including the US.
I believe this is what THEY are trying to avoid. Japan announced last week that they intended to hold the YEN aroung 130, and sold US
Bonds and US$ to do so. Although I believe Japan will definitely be
effected by what is happening in Korea, They are big lenders there,
that is why I believe the US ( IMF ) wil ever so slowly bail out Korea,
in an attempt to avoid Korea default, and lessen the blow on Japan.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:20 - ID#345268)
To Schippi
Thanks for the charts. Both look in phase, however we don't know what is the weight of Au in the PM index.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:21 - ID#42371)
The lucklese Loony.
Thanks for your comments. By purchasing power, the Canadian Dollar should be at 80 cents, as there has been lower inflation in Canada for the last few years than Canada. This must readjust eventually in two such tightly related markets.

Also I cant imagine the US will too happy with one of it's biggest trading partners having such an edge on it. Selling it more but buying less. I think this end of year collapse, is not only Asia but several factors:

1 ) End of year repatriation of profits by Foreign Corps.

2 ) Speculators know the BOC is boxed in. Because of the weak economy.

3 ) And of course Asia, and the falling value of resources.

But of course it only takes a few hedge funds to swamp the BOC $15 billion cash pile.

Will the US let every currency fall vis a vis the mighty dollar. They beter get ready to re-erect trade barriers!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:25 - ID#286230)
clout: Can you tell me how much gold was actually confiscated by the US Gov in the '30's?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:27 - ID#57232)
Gold Mine of Shakespearean Quotes
HAL9000: Thank you - a veritable Gold mine of Shakespearean quotes -- enough to warm any goldbug's heart!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:29 - ID#238422)
@John Disney
John, in case you didn't read this article,
you may wish to look at it. It's in regard
to Norislk platinum. Go to Kitco Precious
Metals Stories, then to Yahoo! Stories,
( on top of page ) , click on Yahoo!,
then scroll down through the articles
until you see this one ( of Dec.22 ) .

My idea is that Mr.Director of Norilsk Plant
got tired of secretly selling his platinum
left-overs "under the table" for CASH, and
now wants it to be legalized...

If he gets this right, he is gonna
dump PL pretty often, but in small
quantites, to help his plant and
to help himself, naturally.
Not a competitor to RSA platinum
for sure, but little swings in PL
market may happen without any warnings.

I could be wrong in my feelings regarding this
story, so please use your own judgement.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:29 - ID#26669)
Mr. (MS?) HATT Re joy, singing and dancing in the snow: I've got to admit that I've got a little of that exhuberance, too, as I see my investments going into the black again. But don't you think this is just the shorts getting squeezed? ( maybe they're getting squeezed where it hurts? ) Surely this can't be one of the quantum market changes we've been waiting for during all these years of the silverbear market? BTW, are you really the HepCat dressed as a bull for the winter? If you are, I'll say you had a lot of pith and vinegar last summer. ;- )

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:30 - ID#294232)
Goodnight to all!!!
I look forward to hearing about the opening in London tonight.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:31 - ID#345268)
to Selby
Back in the late 70's, the US sold around 20 mil. ozs. Now it is believed to have 262 mil ozs. Therefore the total before the sale was 282 mil ozs.

Assuming that before the confiscation they had 50% of gold in stock ( and this is a reasonable assumption, I would guess that they must have confiscated around 150 mil. ozs.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:32 - ID#301318)
From the streets of Bangkok and the US of A
I was in Bangkok just prior to the float of the currency and most recently this past November. The May sentiment in BKK on the street was business as usual. The Thai like their gold and made purchases when they could. Nothing unusual, the street didn't know what was about to be bestowed upon them. ( I did see a graph somewhere that showed the price of gold rising in US$ just weeks before the Thai baht float. Interesting coorelation? ) I suspect that like here at Kitco, the folks in the know had purchased their gold prior to or immeadiately following the float. Perhaps that is what is now happening in China, India and the mid-east.

In Nov I visited a gold shop in BKK to take advantage of a favoravble exchange rate. In a total of 45 minuites of my stay, 3 Thai walked in to sell their gold. I was the only one buying. The sod on the street is selling to eat, the "Kitco's" will sell when it is time to profit.

Here in the States, like BKK, the ones in the know that have large paper assets to protect, will or are purchasing gold. As the price of gold rises beyond "the means" of the street expect to see the poor sod sell and the "Kitco's" take profits.

Just this poor street sod's opinion. I am buying physical in the morning.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:33 - ID#344253)
Whatever amount of gold that was held in private hands was declared illegal and had to be turned into the gov't for about $18.50 an oz. As soon as Roosevelt had the major portion of that safely tucked away in the treasury vaults he declared its value to be $35.00 per oz. I call that out and out confiscation. I don't pretend to know the total value of all the gold he took in.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:36 - ID#57232)
Good point!
Haggis: I've wondered about that too! I remember some of LBJ's speaches, and I don't recall any Kitco reincarnations of the "great society"! I don't think I need to be "spent into prosperity" anymore either.

I must say -- I don't understand all of your comments on Kitco -- but they are refreshing!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:45 - ID#345268)
Interesting point for them to be selling. I would expect you to see a line of buyers! I decided against the physical for liquidity reasons, so I got into the stocks.

If this is the turning point, and I believe it is, because I think that intelligence overules analysts' brainwashing, we are about to see the good old days of late 70's. Bullion vs. gold stocks is a personnal preference, with added risk on the stock side.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:45 - ID#41229)
Emerald Heights
I would suggest to you that we as a society evolving from a Industrial revolution period to a technical revolution, what happens when the assembly line are fully automated! Robots are for more cheaper than humans. ( less problems also ) Our society must transform our work force into higher level ocupations.

Does this happen over night, no!; but effort to change, educate are not towards this direction.

If every country had the same standard of living as us I would submit that it would not be at the level that we have here in the US; also if it where to happen it would be uptopia, and what would motivate people at that point, since it appears it is human nature to achieve an level higher than that a thy neighbor. Greed is the human nature that socilists, comunists alike don't take into account when structured systems are formulated.

Take a small community, have it isolated, it consumed only what it produced, money is exchanged around for all the different services everyone is paid the same, no matter what the job is, ( full blown unadulterated comunism in its purest form ) I would suggest to you it would lack motivation, dedication, and perspiration, because human psych would not be satisfied. Most everybody ( always exception to the rule ) would line up for the easiest brain dead jobs if wages were all equal with the same perks.

How else would you explain this people that are so called "trap" in the welfare system!

Boy!, the arts sure would go to hell, well I guess for the most part they have any way.


(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:47 - ID#26669)
Thoughts on confiscation
I've heard though that gold jewelry was exempt, and continued to be exempt. One of my casual aquaintances saved his money when he was in VietNam during the 1960's ( this was complicated as he was paid in script over there so he had his checks deposited instead at home by his mother then she sent him money orders payable in real dollars ) and bought a huge 22kt cross on a massive rosery chain with solid beads and religious medals just before he rotated home. That sucker must have weighed 3 or 4 pounds! He said they didn't even question him about it, just checked his duffle for stray weapons and drugs.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:58 - ID#57232)
We must remember why we are here -- and who to thank - Bart Kitner!
6pak: I appreciate your 23:34. We must all remember to put aside our ideological differences, and not rise to the bait that sometimes divides this site. We are all here ( I think ) not ultimately for personal gain, but to preserve hard assets which each of our respective countries will need to recover from what will eventually will come ( or has come already ) . We -- as a small group of people may be playing an instrumental role in acting as a catalyst that will help preserve our civilization/culture during difficult times to come -- perhaps years from now for some of our countries.

Lastly, I would like to thank Bart Kitner for putting up with us long enough to see another antipodean Christmas eve!

Has everyone seen what Santa has just brought us on Bart's 24 hour gold/silver site tonight?

Good to see that relative peace has returned to Kitco -- especially important to me since we are so close to the holidays!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 01:58 - ID#345268)
Expanding on confiscation
One more reason to go into gold stocks. Unlikely to be confiscated in the coming turmoil or to be caught in a liquidity sqeeze. After all, gold will skyrocket during the "chaos" period.

Don't know anyone that sold at $800 /oz. But those with gold stocks did well. I believe, that if gold went to $1000 /oz the coin shops and the big trading houses will be buying at $800 ( or another good discount ) . It happened so with silver which was selling at a 30% discount in the blow-off stage in 1980.

The worse thing that can happen to someone is iliquidity. There goes your profit and you become a sitting duck. Liquidity is part of the game.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:06 - ID#57232)
We will have to wait for Ted to wake up!
Selby,6pak: I saw your mutual posts about Ted's deck. What if I told you it was probably his new house in Maine, and not Canadian at all! Am I right Ted? Did you know your deck post almost created an international incident?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:07 - ID#345268)
Korean update
Korean market down 4.07 %

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:09 - ID#26669)
Myrmidon: Second thoughts on confiscation
IMHO the gold stocks are to make money. The gold in the sock is to save until you have to buy passage out of the country at all costs.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:12 - ID#345268)
Agree, but to by passage where? I still think that the US will be safer than any other country without any culture sock!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:12 - ID#57232)
G'nite all for real
Happy Christmas Eve to all of you downunder -- where peace and harmony are more consistent events. I keep forgetting that you see the new day before we do upover! G'nite especially to sharefin, who probably still can't read this post. I will e-mail him tomorrow, and I hope some of you can too.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:13 - ID#257148)
A mere bakers dozen of family..BarBQ-Prawns-Tandoori-chicken-steak-Ham-Ossiters-duck-Salads-Vino
Contrary Indicator #42

Being the morning before christmas and having no work, I slept in, caught up with Kitco at 10:00 am local rather than 07:00. By 11:00 had convinced myself to increase physical holdings of both silver and gold.. Got local JM price and distraught to be told they close at 12:00. Not enough time to get bank cheque - no local bank has that sort of cash and get to city - at least 2 hrs with no hiccupps. Further mortified to learn they'll not be back till 5 Jan. My ( 'umble ) market is closed.

Merry Christmas to you all I was going to post a photo showing the true aurator, fancy swimwear and cute nose, but got a server error..

There is one absolutely amazing saying I have noticed more and more in NZ, especially when I am on the phone to my clients, It is an acknowledgement of agreeement or synonymous with OK, I hear more and more

"Yeah,,, Good as Gold"

They're all talking about Gold

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:17 - ID#372344)
@ Myrmidon, 233 To Buy Passage to CANADA THE GOOD!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:19 - ID#345268)
And all this can be avoided only with a telephone call to your broker. Coin commissions will eat you alive. That is why gold stocks were invented. Or buy a mutual like Scudder gold.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:21 - ID#345268)
@ Tzadeak + 223
Nice and warm in Phoenix Arizona this time of the year. My wife finds the 70's gold enough. She will not survive in Canada.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:29 - ID#372344)
@ Myrmidon
You have heard of the earth warming, most of the border here with the
US is warm relatively speaking +3 in December no snow!! and the
earth apperantly has just begun to warm, I figure by 2010 we will be
about +6 sunny in January. I'm buying property up here for the stampede.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:30 - ID#261151)

Metals very strong this morning, especially platinum. They're all up. -Arf, Buddy-

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:32 - ID#257148)
Some ditch
Myrmidon: have I got that right? Mon ami. I live in New Zealand, That's just over the Sydney Harbour Bridge
Nick@C tear yourself away from that XXXX Castlemaine,

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:36 - ID#345268)
@ Buddy
I think that the London market opens in approx. 1 hr. At Kitco I see gold up $1 which is nothing. Do you have a better price for Au? Earlier some posts indicated Au up 2% in Japan which I doubt.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:42 - ID#372344)
@ Gold is up $1.90 Feb.$297.40 looks like over $300 tomorrow!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:43 - ID#34592)
@ aurator
Still thinking what is "XXXX Castlemain". Excuse my ignorance but I don't get it.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:44 - ID#287367)
@ 223
You ever sleep? ;- )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:46 - ID#34592)
@ Tzadeak
Looks like we can break $300 but it is still within the channel on the PF chart.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:50 - ID#254201)
Stand Back Aurator
M- XXXX is beer in Austrailian, not Fosters as we have been told. Golden yellow cans I believe.

Aurator-Tonights Gold trivia question??

Haggis- Please reference "Monty Python" about the mass of Witches.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:51 - ID#372344)
@ Myrmidon,
But just think of the Pschycological impact of GOLD over $300,and
don't forget the rumor that the Japanase are going to sell US$ on
the 25th, while the US is eating turkey, and drive the Gold price higher?
Even if nor true, I think it will have some impact? Stay tuned!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:56 - ID#32078)
Script currency
Since '223' mentioned script, I would like to add the following history lesson FWIW.

In 1957 I had the good fortune to be in Japan as a teenager on a USAF base, and we used script instead of greenbacks. I was told that the reason was that the US govt did not want greenbacks to be spread around the world because somehow our currency could be manipulated by the enemy, the Communists. In any case, the script was paper issued down to 5 cents, and was not to be paid off base to the Japanese, who could not legally use it on base. We were to pay the Japanese in yen, which was then 360 yen to the dollar. My mom was able to hire a Japanese seamstress and a maid and Americans were rich compared to the Japanese.

One night, my dad, the base commander took all of our script. The next day, he gave us some newly issued, different script ( different colors, pictures, etc. ) The old script was worthless. It didn't make any difference to me.

However, outside the base gate at dawn were hundreds of local Japanese waving thousands of dollars of worthless money, trying to convert it. Too bad for them because somehow they had accumulated paper money which was converted arbitrarily by the issuer, and declared worthless. They were not amused and the airmen were told to stay on base for a few days and avoid the natives.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:58 - ID#257148)
Where 3(tri) Roads (via) met, the Romans posted the news
AuProducer: Gold Trivia Question? OK

Who threw the Golden Apple?

And why?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:58 - ID#257148)
Where 3(tri) Roads (via) met, the Romans posted the news
AuProducer: Gold Trivia Question? OK

Who threw the Golden Apple?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 02:58 - ID#34592)
@ AuProducer
Of course with all the gold you guys have, no wonder your beer is in golden cans! By the way, of all abandoned unprofitable mines in Arizona ( USA ) , only 10% of the gold has been mined. These mines have been unprofitable for many years and someday may reopen.

Lots of fun to visit these abandoned mines. Now prospectors make more money out of the empty bullet shells ( people use the sites for target shooting ) than the gold. Part of the changing times.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:01 - ID#419147)
to all
Umm..don know how to begin..

As long as I can remember the reason for not using gold as money was that: Theres not enough of it to satisfy the needs of cash of modern society.

But during this year, I have heard only ( exept here ) that there is too much gold, thats why prices are falling, CB-s selling their holdings and so on.

Kind of contradictory dont you think? ( I dont really kow why I posted it )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:02 - ID#254201)
Myr- I am flattered but you have the wrong hemisphere for me. I am in Alasaka not Oz or NZ. But yes we do have lots of gold up here.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:04 - ID#34592)
@ Tzadeak
I am sure that the FED will have made provisions through automatic computer buy programs to support the dollar. Even if we eat turkey, the computers can do the work. Don't you think?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:07 - ID#34592)
@ Gebernax
Raise the price of gold to $10,000 /oz and you have enough currency convertibility - that is what matters.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:07 - ID#287367)
@ Golden Apples
Hippomenes threw three golden apples. Atalanta the fleet-footed slowed down to pick up the apples, and Hippomenes caught her.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:09 - ID#255151)

Yes, I believe the Federal Reserve has been buying dollar assets with a vengeance in the last few months. The evidence for this is in the M3 statistics.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:13 - ID#372344)
@ Myrmidon
That kind of reminds me of the old saying 'if a tree falls in the forest,
does it make a sound if there is no one around to hear it?
How much are these computers programed to buy? 3 Bill$, 8 Bill$?
ALL? who knows?
I think it is the uncertainty of the situation which is important and that it may and I say again MAY drive the price higher before close tomorrow
just as Gold used to do in the 70's on fridays as the added factor
of uncertainty is begining to be reflected in said price over week-ends?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:16 - ID#34592)
@ Auric
If the FED is buying dollars to support it, and if the BOJ is buying YEN to support it something at the end must give in. Which currency will give in relative to each other?

Mixed messages are coming to this board. Some feel the YEN will outperform, others the dollar. I personally think that either one going down it will have an impact in the price of gold. Any opinions?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:21 - ID#254201)
Too little, Too late
Aurator- Crystal Ball wins. My congratulations sir. Would those apples be the ones stolen by Atlas for Heracles as he held up the heavens?

I have looked for writings by Charles Fort an have so far garnered only bovine looks. Would you be so good as to give me a title to work with? I do not know what "FREE THINKER" is but I thought I would give him a try.I hope he uses small words that a digger can understand.

Riposte- What is the solution of Nitric and Hydroflouric acid called? Don't try this at home boys and girls. Hint: It dissolves GOLD.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:32 - ID#254201)
Good night all
**Peace on Earth Goodwill Towards Men**

(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:38 - ID#34592)
To all
Good night and a very happy Christmas.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:39 - ID#287367)
Feb Gold
DBC shows Feb gold up $1.90 Wanted to trade all my junk silver for platinum Saturday, but my local dealer was out of platinum, so I took gold instead. Go Fibo ! ( Grin thingy )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:50 - ID#23195)
Some local news from the continent
France:Public figure shot himself serveral times ,even missed himself once. Explanation of authorities. QUOTE:SUICIDE HE REALLY WANTED TO die...

A well known figure in the S of France with important political relations and knowledge was found dead in his garage the engine of his car running.During investigation journalists were not allowed on the scene ( so called safetymeasures ) Conclusion of authorities: suicide particularities noted by autopsy :hit himself on the head befor killing
himself and practicaly no co was found in his longs.

A very important french bank needed massive aid in order to survive.Why was the debt not discovered earlier??Every year the director of the bank members of the bankingcontrol committee,government representatives etc had a reunion and decided what positive numbers to publish.....

Belgium:Journalist asked well known politicien .What did you do with the "fraud" money.Answer politicien :I burned it.The politicien left politics several months later and went to study at Oxford to get things straight....


(Wed Dec 24 1997 03:51 - ID#432148)
The Trend
Crystal Ball: Kitco showed gold spot up 1.35 at 03:36 ET vs. DBC's Feb. up 1.90 at 03:47 ET. Are the shorts getting nervous? ;- )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 04:00 - ID#257148)
Close, but no cigar?
Crystal Ball, now that sounds like a good, answer, but not for my question, no my question stated, One golden apple thrown, it was. ( if your answer turns out to be a roman spelling of the greek goddess I am seeking, I retract and award you )

Actually, this is a sitter for the Voyeur Professor....

"To the fairest"


(Wed Dec 24 1997 04:01 - ID#257148)
hot stuff
AuProducer: Aqua Regia

Steve - Perth
(Wed Dec 24 1997 04:05 - ID#284177)
Steve's specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA
Wishing you & your family a very merry Christmas, Steve, Rowena & Nathan.


( See, nothing to worry about! Or is there? )


Korean won's slide triggers new crisis

Homestake raid on Plutonic sparks a gold rush

Millennium bug is Asian time bomb

Won tumbles after debt rating downgrade

De Beers wants Argyle in cartel


$986m US raid by Homestake on WA Gold mines

The $1bn Homestake gold swoop

Top Action from Worlds Smallest Stock Exchange - the SSEX!

Race to beat the Y2K bug - or get trampled in the rush

Miner's gift of gold comes up the chimney

INDONESIA - Groundswell starts growing into a political earthquake

Tokyo share crash echoes through local markets

Prices slide amid fears of Japanese credit crunch

Gloom merchants forget we have learned something ( we hope )

Korea precariously placed amid the Asian storm - The Maverick

Mid Level Officials lobbying for Chinese Devaluation!

The biggest financial meltdown we have seen in our lifetime

Change in sentiment puts shine into gold

US rejects IMF call for funding increase

In $US terms, base metals are in crisis

The penny starts to drop in the US

Anxious IMF seeks more cash

Bargain-hunters take chance on miners

NZ voters are wary of M.A.I. free-trade treaty

Red alert for Korea's banks - Korea is in DEEP TROUBLE NOW!

Too many eggs in an Asian basket case
No more Letters of Credit for Korean Manufacturers!!!!!!!!!!

ASIA'S NEXT CASUALTY? Bad banks could clobber China

Whistling past the graveyard in Asia

Billion-dollar buyouts lead attack on bankruptcy
Korean Shipbuilding Group had 20 times debt to equity!

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 24 1997 04:06 - ID#287367)
@ Aurator
I give up. Who threw the golden apple? Merry Christmas!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 04:20 - ID#257148)
'Tis the night before Christmas, and nothing was stirring, not even a mouse.
Crystal Ball, yes, but others will come later.
Away to don a red suit.

Ho Ho Ho

(Wed Dec 24 1997 04:22 - ID#432148)
How many people do you think would follow orders and turn in their gold in a confiscation. I still remember in 1933 my dad buying gas with a double eagle and saying tomorrow they would not be "good". What fools we mortals be. That $20 double eagle would be worth a lot more than the increase in the COL today, JGB!!! There must have been a lot of people who did not obey the law as there are plenty double eagles still around. Does anyone know what the U. S. govt did with all those double eagles they collected?

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 24 1997 04:29 - ID#287367)
@ Goldbug 23
Yeah, the fools melted them down into gold bars.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Dec 24 1997 04:29 - ID#284177)
From the latest Intelligence Digest (UK)
Points to watch in 1998
Intelligence Digest analysts have put together a list of seven key
points to watch during 1998. These points to watch include the danger
of new guerrilla unrest in Mexico; a likely return to chaos and
genocide in central Africa; a possible explosion of violence in
Kosovo; and the possibility of a major confrontation between Turkey
and Greece/Russia over the planned delivery of Russian S-300
missiles to Cyprus...

How the Russians are helping Iraq hide its weapons

Russians working with the United Nations weapons inspection team
in Iraq have reportedly been providing advanced warning of
inspections to the Iraqis on the instructions of Moscow...

(Wed Dec 24 1997 04:31 - ID#432148)
Steve-Perth --- Homestake Press Release re Plutonic Bid
Steve, if you haven't checked out this link and reviewed HM's justification for their 86% premium you might find of interest:

(Wed Dec 24 1997 04:38 - ID#283121)
Normandy etc

HAGGIS - I must confess to being totally confused by your 23:33 post.

Firstly, Normandy ( NDY ) now holds around 19% of Great Central ( GCM ) . Although I agree that NDY will eventually move to control GCM, this game has a long way to go. GCM is by far the best company in the Gutnick stable and he will not be willing to let this jewell go cheaply ( Gutnick increased his own personal stake in GCM by 2% a couple of months ago ) . At the same time, de Crespigny ( NDY ) won't buy anything unless it is cheap. The final deal will be very interesting. ( BTW, NDY and GCM are my 2 largest investments ) .

I may have missed something, but since when has NDY been a Rothschilds interest ? Also, what is the connection between Homestake, Gencor, NDY/GCM and Anglos ? ( Anglos sold out of NDY last year ) . Also, I don't know anything about Gencor, but do they have the 6 billion US dollars needed to mount a takeover of WMC ? Any facts you can provide would be greatly appreciated.

Merry Xmas,

(Wed Dec 24 1997 05:59 - ID#26793)
Be on the lookout for a guy in a red suit.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:01 - ID#398105)
G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

I did say "rumour". In saying that,who predicted that Homestake would go for Plutonic, evan at an above current market price.

Why would Normandy "support" GMC? Normandy's style over the last 10 years has been to acquire resources/reserve, not exploration plays, and certainly nor to support companies. Why would they take a non-controlling interest in a successful mining company such as GCM. I humbly suggest that there is a longer term play.

Gencor and WMC - Gencor through a number of proxies are acquiring a controlling interest in a nimber of nickel-gold companies in WA, the latest being JUbilee Mine NL and Forrestania. WMC is BIG, but it is not performing to market and shareholder expectations. SEVere rationalisation is taking place within the organisation. All is not well, particuarly at Kambalda

Only a rumour, and a concept, time will tell. Irrespective, there is UPSIDE in all resource plays suggested. Do not sell your equity.

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:06 - ID#398105)


Sorry about the typos. Historically, who kick started Normandy/ Posgold - Anglo.

aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:11 - ID#398105)
AuProducer, XXXX IS Fosters, Struth............Merry Xmas

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:16 - ID#398105)

Abandoned gold mines, unevaluated gold mines.........potential.

How can you abandon a gold mine, un-evaluated. If it is an "old" mine, then it is unevaluated. Tricks of the trade. Time to get tha Kalgoorlie Bhoyes involved.

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:18 - ID#26793)
Mexican state government denies involvement in indiam massacre

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:23 - ID#26793)
Mexican peso sags on massacre news

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:25 - ID#401460)
Good Morning, and Merry Christmas.

I agree that HM and others are in for the long term play - they must be expecting Gold to move substantially higher. And if we have noticed this I am sure many who are much better at this game than I have also.

Therefore the nice constant rise in Gold price.
$282 to $296. So constant and gradual the media has not noticed the move. $300 not far away.


(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:25 - ID#398105)
To one and all


Merry Christmas to you all. Check out the Australian stocks. If gold goes to US$300 tomorrow, Santa is on cue. If not he will be back next year.

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:27 - ID#26793)
Bema, Arizona Star & Placer Dome complete deal

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:34 - ID#26793)
Canadian dollar under siege by speculators

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:38 - ID#333131)
Good morning and Merry Christmas
All PM's are up this morning, together for a change.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:39 - ID#26793)
China announces layoff of 2 million workers (not a typo)

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:43 - ID#26793)
WGC calls for governments to get out of anti-gold business

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:45 - ID#24140)
Vodka and precious metals - Absolute in Platinum Shot Glasses

for Boris Thanks for the info.

for all - the certain indicator that gold short covering has begun

lies in the gold silver ratio - 47 to one could be the floor ( I hope so )

- if gold moves up againt SILVER - there will be an explosion heard round the world - watch the ratio.

Gold broke out of its downtrend against stirling and the dmark

several days ago Its now about 522 dm and broke its channel arould

512 - 515 - It has been moving up in all currencies for about a week. WATCH THE GOLD SILVER RATIO. It may tell you if this is the start of a gold bull or a nice counter trend rally.Good luck

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:46 - ID#23195)
Future ECB
Once upon a time there were 3 crippled CB.
THe first one build a house of paper and was eaten instantely by the bad wolf.
THe second one build a house of paper and intended after to build a fence of gold but the price was to high ,and he ended up with some coins ,just enough to play poker with ,he got eaten by the bad wolf
The third one builded immediatly a house of gold and used paper
for heatingfuel.the wolf died of hunger and cold and the little
cb lived happily ever after.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:47 - ID#30116)
Merry Christmas All!
Merry Christmas All!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:48 - ID#26793)
Australia joins Canada & U.S. in race to flat yield curve

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:55 - ID#26793)
European and East European junk bonds in hot demand

(Wed Dec 24 1997 06:59 - ID#26793)
Thailand permanently closes 56 of 58 suspended finance firms

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:02 - ID#287367)
@ J Disney
Feb gold $298.00 Traded all my junk silver for gold. ( still have my cartwheels ) Go fibo!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:03 - ID#26793)
S&P downgrades Malaysian currency

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:07 - ID#287367)
@ All
What time does COMEX close today? I feel like Rip Van Winkle...Did somebody cut the OEX in half whilst I was sleeping?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:08 - ID#93130)
HAGGIS: Thanks for the information.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:09 - ID#26793)
BOJ sold $10 billion for yen in 3 day period

(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:14 - ID#26793)
U.S. auto manufacturers find difficulty competing in currency crisis

(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:14 - ID#286199)
Wall Street Journal reports that recently silver call options have been sold with strike prices as high as 7.00. Somebody is optimistic!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:15 - ID#286199)
cut and paste
CPM Group shows that registered silver stockpiles have declined even further in recent years when measured against usage rates. Overall, the
consultants project that international silver demand will rise 5.9% by year end, with unexpectedly large gains in jewelry, silverware and demand from India.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:20 - ID#26793)
IMF action creates financial panic rather than cures it. Meltdown ahead

John Disney__A
(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:22 - ID#24140)
Toujours la betise is right
For werner - seems like bankers are starting to crack.

For Steve - Unclear to me how the Intelligence Digest overlooked the

almost cetain bloody revolution coming soon to South Africa. These guys are not doing their honework. Only joking steve - good info.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:28 - ID#26793)
This deflation will return us to the countryside. Crisis ahead.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:31 - ID#23195)
Make last observertion as a choice for ECB and we will all soon benefit .

(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:35 - ID#39845)
credit crunch for christmas
How much more drama has to unfold before gold goes off like a loaded

Bob M
(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:42 - ID#26059)
Merry Christmas to all and a very Happy New Year and my gut feeling is the tides of investment fortune are reversing...."Metals will be great in '98" Enjot the Holidays all!!

Mo in To
(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:51 - ID#347205)
Analysts say.....ho ho ho go gold!
To All,

A very Merry Xmas, Happy Chanukah ( and any other holiday I've left out ) and Happy New Year. This a.m.'s Globe & Mail interviewed 5 top analysts here in To, who ALL predict a resurgence in the price of gold this year! Welcome News!

Best Wishes to All!

Mo from To

(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:54 - ID#364147)
BAH Humbug...............................................and other negative sentiments
only TWO days to go ( grin thing ) ....Must be an early X-Mas present--can actually access this site!...

Mo in To
(Wed Dec 24 1997 07:57 - ID#347205)
Re: Credit Crunch for Christmas
To Hedgehog:

Your comments re: credit crunch for christmas raises the question, how will these purchases be paid for? And at what value will a currencies NOT backed by gold really have? The Bank of Montreal ( TO ) yesterday reported that they anticipate credit card and debit card purchases to run at an outstanding 115 transactions per SECOND. Do you have similar statistics in the USA? Personally, with the canuck buck dropping like a stone, it is no wonder that the POG and price of silver are going up! I for one, will continue to hold physical gold and coins for the coming year.

Mo in To

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:05 - ID#26793)
Wall Street just doesn't get it....yet

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:09 - ID#364147)!!
Is the stock market open tomorrow???

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:14 - ID#26793)
FLASH! Japan scraps plans to meet BIS standards for banks. Too harsh on business!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:24 - ID#25588)
Happy Holidays and a Golden New Year - Feb. Gold, the next couple of days should be thin trading, anything can happen, buy dips under 288.5, resistance at 305, sell out position between 320-325 if it gets that high during the next couple weeks.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:29 - ID#26793)
More on Japanese banks and BIS standards

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:32 - ID#364147)
@ Selby ............................................................and JTF
Selby ( 00:09 ) : Coming from a carpenter you hit the nail right on the head as I wouldn't want this disease to spread across Canada either!!...JTF ( 2:06 ) :International!---I'm lookin forward to moving somewhere where there is a 'work ethic' and something called pride and rsponsibility for one's actions....A not-so subtle differnce between Swan's Island Maine and Cape Breton is how they fish for Lobster---In S.I. almost all lobster boats are ONE-MAN operations and in Cape Breton the entire family is out there as then they all qualify for U.I. ( pogey-UNEMPLOYMENT ) for the other 44 weeks of the year and by-the-way,the lobster industry is going the way of everything else here ( down the TUBES ) as rape and plunder is the moto in these parts ( everyone is tryin ta catch the 'last one' ) ...The catch is down over 50% and has been down FOUR straight years but would the yocal lobsterman approve a minor increase in 'allowable catch' last winter so the poor things could have a chance to reproduce ) NAAAAAH!!! Not when 'big buddy' ( Ottawa ) will pay their way anyway....Like Selby says and has said in the past,this is NOT socialism but appeasement on the part of the'ment....

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:42 - ID#356379)

Just a note to say thanks for everyone'e input this past year, especially the shorts ( EB ) who keep the rest of us from losing perspective.

Happy Hanuhhah and Merry Christmas to all.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:43 - ID#26793)
IMF action is undermining confidence

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:47 - ID#26793)
When do you officially become a Maineiac?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:50 - ID#426220)
JAMES DINES LATEST ON GOLD (December 22, 1998)

Long-time veteran precious metals analyst starts his report with a Point & Future chart of LONDON GOLD, going all the way back to 1980. It clearly shows a TRIPLE-BOTTOM at about the $280 level ( 1982, 1985 and the present ) . The last two times it reached Dines Buy Zone, the yellow zoomed to the $500 area:

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:54 - ID#26793)
Nice Q&A with a notorious short-seller

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:55 - ID#287207)
Thanks Cloutt. I am still interested in the confiscation issue and I'm thinking that virtually no gold was confiscated even though there was undoubtedly a law to that effect. I have never seen a referrence to the amount of gold confiscated and it is a suficienty unAmerican notion that if there was a large ammount it would be a well known and frequently seen figure is suspect. But maybe it is just buried and lost at the moment.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:56 - ID#426220)

Coming off the brilliant SILVER CALL recently, Mike Sheller shares another insightful and quite possibly prophetic outlook for the stock market and precious metals. This will be, if nothing else, a "stress test" of sorts for the stock market. As he sees it, between his calculations and our Jupiterian observations, stocks don't have a chance. Full view from observatory at:

(Wed Dec 24 1997 08:59 - ID#26793)
Will someone explain to me why the Globex is +700?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:03 - ID#283121)

Like I said, the NDY/GCM situation is interesting. Both companies are exceedingly under-valued and I am still accumulating. GCM is probably the most under-valued gold producer in Australia ( perhaps even the world ) based on earnings, reserves and exploration potential, but judging by price action over the last few months the market is not anticipating a takeover. This is probably because of NDY's history of managing to win control of companies without paying a takeover premium.
BTW, regarding rumours, it was Warren Buffett who said that with a million dollars and enough inside information you can go broke in a year.
Cheers, sas

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:07 - ID#93232)
Even my wife is praying that gold will hit $300. today...thus insuring my civility at our Eve dinner with my inlaws. I'm simply wanting her to be happy...I'm not selfish! HoHoHoHo...I also hohohope that Santa gets his sleigh back from Uncle Eb for the kids' sake.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:07 - ID#364147)
Re S+P futures: Early Christmas present for us paper-holders...MERRY CHRISTMAS!!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:10 - ID#254269)
@ KCTrader; I'll read up on the subject first.

Thanks for your18.34 last night re oprtions and futures trading. Sorry, I'm
just now responding but my computer is at work, so I've spent last thirty minutes scrolling through last twelve hors of postings. I'll definitely read up on the subject first and do some several paper trades first.
Thanks for your interest.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:11 - ID#364147)
Time ta work on the deck and try ta forget about the plunging Can.dollar

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:12 - ID#403267)
Merry Christmas to all (I asked Santa for 300+gold,have I been good enough!)
Bart, A special and Very Merry Christmas to you sir, and a prosperousNew Year

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:17 - ID#403267)
@StudioRsoThat'sTwo of Us!
Studio, you beat me on the post but I had my letter to Santa ion last week!:- ) ) BTW, your post made me think, does our "EB" stand for Ebenezer ( as in Scrooge ) ? , where is that old short!

Barb Hughes
(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:21 - ID#20783)
GOLDBUG32 re: your 4:22 post
In answer to your question: The US govt melted the Double Eagles they collected.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:26 - ID#93232)'re right about our Uncle!
Our Uncle EB is not available at this time....he's out in the woods gathering nuts and berries and chasing wild turkeys! I hope he bags one.
Bad time of the year to have the shorts...don't you agree?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:27 - ID#26793)
Junk bonds to pour into market during 1998

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:31 - ID#26793)
Suicides by South Korean businessmen reach 400

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:33 - ID#26793)
Knowing our Uncle EB anything he catches he will give to the needy.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:36 - ID#254269)

I've just spent the last thirty minutes scrolling through last nights posts and this morning's early posts and there were several comments about what's right and what's wrong with America. Well, if anyone can stand a few more thoughts on the subject, I would like to throw in my two cents worth.

As an immigrant to the US and someone who has lived here for twenty five years, I probably have a broader view than many.I agree that there are a lot of things "wrong" with America, but I seem to recall saying the same thing about my native Australia. I have done a lot of reading about America and have had the good fortune to live in New York, Baltimore and now Texas as well as having the opportunity of travelling widely throughout the US. One of my favorite books is one called

"The Glory and the Dream" by William Manchester. This tome ( it runs 800 pages ) is a social history of the US from 1920 to 1970 and I recommend it to readers of all nationalities, because it provides an extremely interesting overview of the changes in the US between those dates, including the depression and WWII. If anyone thinks that the world is a bad place now, just try to imagine what it would have been like if America had NOT won the cold war.

It's like Winston Churchill once said; "Capitalism is the very worst system ever devised by man, except for all the others".

I don't know how this financial thing is going to play out ( there are may who post here who have vastly more experience with gold and trading )

but I think that it would be unwise to underestimate the energy, inventiveness and general good nature of the American people.


(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:40 - ID#93232)
I agree...he's a pretty good boy with an obviously generous spirit...but he's been giving too much lately to those ol' gold longs...but, he's the best Uncle EB I'll ever know.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:44 - ID#57232)
Good Morning!
Donald: Merry Christmas! I'm also getting a kick wondering what EB is doing -- if he is out hunting, I'm sure he can sneak up on anything! I think he has a bit of the elf in him!

I'm impressed -- I'm nursing a cold, as well as my wife - who is on amantidine for the flu -- and you're posting up a snow storm! Amantidine was approved by the FDA for Parkinson's disease, I think, which means it can be used for viruses -- as originally intended if my memory is correct. Strange American world we live in where others have more ready access to modern medicines than we. I'm just happy we got the medicine.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:50 - ID#57232)
Pacing the deck? Any whales dropping in for XMas?
Ted: So was it the deck on your Maine property? I know Searsport well -- had a friend there who moved. Said he walked out on the ocean one winter, so much colder than Cape Breton I think! If you are working outside in Maine at this time of the year, you must be part polar bear, and the envy of the average Mainer -- a hardy bunch as it is.

silver plate
(Wed Dec 24 1997 09:50 - ID#288433)
A golden holiday with silver trimmings to everyone.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:00 - ID#403267)
Thanks for your comments. I have read Manchesters book and I know well the generation of our fathers it chronicles ( oops, mothers too;- ) . It presents a good balance to some of the US bashing here of late. I believe that the "silent majority" of the Boomer generation holds more to the mores of the previous generation than is generally thought or portrayed by the media. At least I hope so, I'm a boomer and certainly I can't be the only conservative or old fashioned one?;- ) ) .

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:01 - ID#93232)
@Donald_A, Roebear, JTF...if Uncle EB shows up.....
tell him there's a place set for him at our table tonight...what a fine hoot that would be. Must go to the office to pump oil to give it away. Merry merry merrilly I go....

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:02 - ID#57232)
America isn't all bad!
Avalon: Thank you for your comments! America at one time encouraged immigrants from virtually all countries, and became a cultural melting pot. Many of us only go back a generation or two. In North America, Canada has picked up the baton. Canada has picked up a bit too much of the socialism bug, but it does have ethnic diversity which will carry it a long way. It is the people that make a country great, not their government, and -- I think the people will have more say again soon. I admire how one province in Canada has actually attacked their deficit and made serious progress in balancing it. We Americans have not noticed yet what is happening in Canada.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:04 - ID#57232)
America isn't all bad!
Avalon: Thank you for your comments! America at one time encouraged immigrants from virtually all countries, and became a cultural melting pot. Many of us only go back a generation or two. In North America, Canada has picked up the baton. Canada has picked up a bit too much of the socialism bug, but it does have ethnic diversity which will carry it a long way. It is the people that make a country great, not their government, and -- I think the people will have more say again soon. I admire how one province in Canada has actually attacked their deficit and made serious progress in balancing it. The concept of not spending more than you make is controversial indeed! We Americans have not noticed yet what is happening in Canada.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:06 - ID#287305)
David A: Globex It ain't +7 now!
Your tax dollars hard at work buying a stable market. Dow went as high as 50 but is at +4.23 as I type this. They are pulling out all the stops to stay in the black zone. If they can't hold it up it will be one more painful papercut on our pitiful dying patient.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:07 - ID#426220)

A Crash Watch for Christmas Eve?

There is no doubt that this is seasonally abnormal; there's also
no doubt of what can happen if Japan breaks the key
levels ( basically 14,400 or so in the Nikkei ) and doesn't bounce
back immediately. Such an event would travel around the globe,
flattening Europe in all likelihood, then creaming New York
thereafter. Views of what the New Year might ring in:

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:10 - ID#26793)
William Manchester is a great author and historian. He lives nearby but I have never met him. Try and get a copy of "A World Lit Only by Fire". It is the best history of the Dark Ages and gives many insights about why they happened and could happen again.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:12 - ID#347332)
Santa here. I'll close gold @ $299.98 today! satisfied?
Sorry cant offer you $300. Busy tonight.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:13 - ID#26793)
Hope you found my post about China and the official announcement of 2,000,000 layoffs.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:14 - ID#426220)
May the New Year crowd your lives with abundant Health, Wealth &

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:15 - ID#294232)
The Shorts are Sweating Now!
Continuous strength makes anyone on the short side of Gold SWEAT and
rightfully so. Cannot cover in thin market trading so they are forced
to sit on the sidelines and watch their investments contract. The Central
Bankers who have leased out gold must now be wondering about what if one
of the funds were to default. Risk reward factors measured against the
lease rates will become an issue in 1998. A default could change the game
for leasing gold forever!!!!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:19 - ID#426220)
GOLD UP 2.30 TO 297.80 & XAU UP 1.70 TO 75.29.... PENDING SHORT PANIC
GOLD BETWEEN $3,500 TO $8,400...?

This prediction gains tremendous credibility after you read the credentials of its author:

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

If we go back to an earlier section of this paper, we observed that after 1971, when the artificial pressure was lifted from gold prices that prices advanced to a peak of 24 times the old price and settled around approximately 10 times the old price. No two events in any market develop precisely the same, but just as an
exercise, if something similar happens this time, gold prices might peak near $8,400.00, and settle around $3,500.00 an ounce.

The remote possibility that these numbers can be correct, is enough evidence to make it easy to understand why the central bankers and high government officials around the world want to denigrate, denounce, discard, disown and dislike gold, plus keep prices low. It makes one want to take time to consider what the implications of anything remotely resembling this happening might be. The last time gold had been held down artificially for 37 years. This time, so far, it has only been 17, which may lessen the next rise. On the other hand we have asset markets that have reached such lofty levels, where no less an authority than the FED Chairman has described the situation, as long as a year ago, as "Irrational Exuberance". So who can tell? Let's not lose sight, while we are pondering the question, of the trillions and trillions of fiat megabyte dollars, yen, marks, and what have you, that are whizzing around the world electronically every minute of every hour of every day. They have to end up buying something, and it might just be gold one of these days.

Part II of his mind-blowing essay is located at:

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:19 - ID#57232)
Cape Breton
Ted: Scrolled back, and read more of your posts. Too bad about Cape Breton. Perhaps the socialism bug is worse than I thought. What happened to that guiding light of Alberta I think it was who was actually cutting services so that income and outgo actually matched? I remember visiting relatives in Toronto only a year ago - and concluded that belt tightening was becoming a national pastime. History already?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:22 - ID#254269)
@ Roebear re The Glory and the Dream

Probably the thing more than any other than impressed me in the book
was "the miracle of production" when America's factories turned out all of the war materiel for the Allies.
I remember as a kid, my mother ( who was a secretary in the Australian
navy ) told me about the Japanese midget submarines that got into Sydney Harbour. The Australian Government had a plan to evacuate
the northern half of the continent and to ced it to the Japanese
if necessarry. The ONLY thing that stood between that scenario and
anything else was the American Navy and the U.S. Marines.
For a long time during the 50's me father and many other Australians of
his era refused to buy any of the Japanese goods that were being
offered for sale in Sydney stores.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:22 - ID#23195)
ON line
For Avelon:Dont worry I think the USA is still the greatest democratie in the world ( after Europe ofcourse...... )
For Ridgerunner :Dont give up hope Your typingrate seems OK
For studio R :just went shopping ( timeschedule )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:24 - ID#26793)
Currency traders sweat possible Japan holiday intervention. Afternoon selloff?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:25 - ID#254269)
@ All; Let's be very clear abou this.

I think that some have the impression that I am negative on America.
I am not; I think it has problems like any other country and the good in
America vastly outweighs the bad.I

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:25 - ID#57232)
I will look!
Donald: Thanks! Your persistent digging pays off, even in firmly communist countries where news gathering is nearly impossible. My dad won't want to hear about it. He has been amazed by my months ago warnings -- again mostly the fruits of your efforts to keep us Kitcoites well informed.

Please take care and stay healthy -- too many viruses going around this year! Best of Holiday wishes to your family!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:27 - ID#23195)
How come its so quite...
......dont depend on me for conversation Very slow typingrate

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:32 - ID#426220)

- FRB Top-Dog Shares His Candid Opinion On Gold

- Greenspan: Still Going for the Gold

Once at the following website, scroll down until you see Mr. Greenspans bright-eyes peeping out at you, then CLICK him... where ever you like. IF you do NOT see Greenspans photo, RELOAD THE PAGE:

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:34 - ID#333131)
IMF pitches in 10 B more this morning

[ Top News | All Stories | National | Washington | International | Top Business ]
[ All Business | Health/Science | Sports | Entertainment | Photos | News Speak ]

10:24 AM ( ET ) 12/24
S. Korea Gets $10 Billion Loan
SEOUL, South Korea ( AP ) -- In a surprise move, the International Monetary Fund and Group of Seven countries will lend an additional $10 billion in emergency loans to South Korea by year's end, the Seoul government said Thursday.

News or information from AP may not be published, broadcast or redistributed without the prior authorization of AP.
Copyright 1997 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright 1997 Prodigy Services Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:40 - ID#57232)
Happy Holidays!
Vronsky: Merry Xmas to one of our most stalwart Kitco regulars! Able to take more verbal punishment than I without response! I will read your Miller post with interest!

My take on how high gold goes this time has to do with how much inflation we have had since the authorities last gave up on pushing gold down. That will be the lower limit ( about $600/oz at the most conservative ) . The world deflationary crisis and the recent dollar flood will add to the gold price rise. Adding a fear factor, $1000/oz within a few years is quite possible.

Using what little I have learned about inflationary cycles, real inflation in the US may wait for the baby boomers to retire, and our deficit to snowball. Around 2010-2015 gold in the many thousands of dollars an ounce is a real possibility. Mike Sheller made similar conclusions, coming from a different perspective, and I think so did some others.

I wonder what "Cyclist" would say. Might get an interesting response!!!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:40 - ID#426220)
GOLD UP 2.80 to 298.20 & MICROSOFT DOWN 2 13/16 TO 120


Undoubtedly, a few at Kitco might have been wondering "What is the relevance of MICROSOFT to the Precious Metals theme of Gold Forum." It is indeed relevant. Some market students believe MICROSOFT to be the LISTING FLAGSHIP OF A DYING STOCK MARKET. The capital appreciation of MSFT during the last five years is now legendary. However, all good things inevitably and eventually come to an end. Once the entire stock ground begins grinding down, informed money will pour into precious metals.

This morning MSFT Gapped Open DOWN 2 7/8 POINTS TO 120... DECISIVELY taking out a recent low. When the Flagship is finally hit, and begins to sink... follow the rats to the nearest exit for survival:

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:42 - ID#280215)

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:44 - ID#426220)

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:54 - ID#294232)
GOLD $298.30
Will Santa deliver us $300.00 Gold?
My guess is yes. Have just watched two hours of cnbc and there was no
mention of gold and alot of excuses for microsoft. The later has broken
two important trend lines and it will not take much to create further
gaps on the downside. Fear meter tells me the dow players are really
beginning to feel uncomfotable and it will not be long before they join
the sweat team of gold shorters. Anyone have any imput on levels of price
that may force mass short coverings or at least mild panic. My guess is
supported price above $300.00.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 10:54 - ID#215208)
Perhaps one of you old pros can explain something to me. As far back as I can see, which is back to early December, the PREM was bouncing around, but averaging slightly over zero.Then the PREM jumped up to around 3000 when the last panic drop in the DOW occured a few days ago. Since then, for the last three days, the PREM has been holding up in the range of 1000, very steady. This looks somewhat strange to me. Does it have any meaning? Panda? Anyone?

Mr. Mick
(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:02 - ID#345321)
Korea to announce bankruptcy??
Wasn't that to happen today? or was it tommorrow? Donald, did you notice that the relaxed lending rules in Japan were only for banks that operated domestically, or am I reading that wrong?
Merry Christmas to all Kitcoites, I will hoist a Fuller's ESB to you!!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:03 - ID#280215)
Use Caution - Enjoy the Holidays
The seemingly long-gone George Cole, although many times seemed to speak out of both sides of his mouth, did bring up a point when we had the last decent rally in Gold. He mentioned that it was probably short-lived because it was accomplished on short-covering with no new buying. As I look at this quiet little rally, I can't help but see the same thing. On the daily chart for Feb, the entire rally since the beginning of Dec has been on short-covering ( Open Interest declining ) . In addition, the volume has been Very light for this entire time with larger volume on the down days.

The charts are definitely screaming with divergences all over the place in most indicators, letting us know that a change is coming soon. The weekly and monthly Gold charts show that we're still in a downtrend. The daily 14-day stochastics have almost reached the top for Feb Gold, indicating that this current rally is topping. For the picture-formation people, it looks like a nice upward wedge/pennant forming for this rally. Being an options trader who straddles ( as per my handle ) by buying calls and puts a liittle bit above and below the current price, I don't really care which way the move goes, as long as it goes. But someone asked if this rally looked for real. My take it this point is it doesn't seem like it is and that we will completely retrace this cuurent move, or see new lows very soon before the major new up move actually begins. We'll have to wait and see what happens in the next week, but I wouldnt harrass EB too much yet. Good luck to all and have a great Holiday!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:08 - ID#390214)
Happy holidays to all ( except gold and free market manipulators )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:09 - ID#246224)
My guess ..
.. is that perceptions have changed on gold because of two things; 1 ) reaching a historic bottom which has been a rebound point for the past two instances and 2 ) Korea Prez-elect honest blunder talking about 'sovereign default'.

Is there a report on short commitments on a daily basis ( presuming the average price for that day was the break even price less cost of shorting at that time ) ? We might then be able to chart the positions ( amounts at different price levels ) and when these folks might begin to cover ( in order to maintain their profits, etc ) .

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:10 - ID#23195)
In my case it will probebly exceed a 1000$
Again Merry xmas to all

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:18 - ID#333131)
More on S Korea 10 B. This is starting to add up to some real money.

10:37 AM ( ET ) 12/24
S. Korea Gets $10 Billion Loan
SEOUL, South Korea ( AP ) -- In a surprise move, the International Monetary Fund and Group of Seven countries will lend an additional $10 billion in emergency loans to South Korea by year's end, the Seoul government said Thursday.
The lending is in addition to $14 billion already given to South Korea under the IMF's record $57 billion bailout package negotiated on Dec. 3.
"The lending, along with anticipated cooperation from foreign banks in rolling over their loans, will greatly help ease our foreign currency crisis," Finance Minister Lim Chang-yuel said in a statement jointly announced in Seoul and Washington.
The loans were originally scheduled to be spread over next year but the IMF and G-7 member countries taking part in the loan package agreed to speed up disbursement to help ease a worsening financial crisis in South Korea, Lim said.
In return, South Korea has agreed to speed up financial reforms and open its domestic industrial market earlier than scheduled, he said.
The $57 billion Korean bailout package breaks down to $21 billion from the IMF, $10 billion from the World Bank, $4 billion from the Asian Development.
The United States, Japan and five other G-7 member countries committed a total of $22 billion as a "second line of defense" in case the main package is not enough.
So far, South Korea has received $9 billion from the IMF, $3 billion from the World Bank and $2 billion from the Asian Development Bank.
Under the new lending schedule, it now will receive $2 billion more from the IMF on Monday and $8 billion from the G-7 member countries which also include Britain, France, Canada, Germany and Italy, before the end of this year, Lim said.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:20 - ID#368250)
I would like to know some of your thoughts on BEMA and PDome's deal. Will it be a positive or a negative for BEMA? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Happy Hannukah or Merry Christmas to all my new friends at KITCO.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:22 - ID#31868)
get Camdesuss!!!

Spud Master
(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:23 - ID#273112)
The REAL inflation ... running nearly 11% a year in Texas
For those interested, on February 12 of this year I began tracking the prices of 31 grocery items in my North Texas national chain food store. Since the "basket" of goods starts with a large bag of Fritos Brand Corn Chips, I call it "The Frito Index". There ain't any damn computers, gasoline or gold in it ( I consider the first item non-essential and the other two are HIGHLY manipulated ) , just stuff you need to buy weekly to eat & live.

As of Dec 22, 1997, the "Frito Index" is UP 10.78%.

It's shocking to finally see the subtle changes in prices you otherwise never notice. Two things are going on:

#1 Outright increases in price ( canned pasta and clothes washing powder the most gross offenders ) .

#2 "Dilution" of the product ( Cambells Tomato soup substituting tomato "puree" ( tomato paste + water ) for pure tomato paste, and Scott reducing the square footage of paper towels in their "Mega Roll" - oh yes, they also changed the name to "Big Roll". God, you gotta admire the sheer gaul of these marketing bastards. )

The US Federal government, in collusion with the Federal Reserve's driving down price of gold, are quite obviously hiding the reporting of true inflation. You can damn well bet I am buying more gold as each opportunity presents itself; we in America are being furtively boiled alive and are not even noticing it.

LGB, cease your criminal support of a corrupt and rotten system: this is not what our Founding forefathers meant for America's government to degenerate into. How much distance is there between a government that lies to us as a matter of principle, and one that sanctions death-squads to murder women and children in Chiapas, Mexico when lies no longer suffice to control? Merry Christmas.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:24 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Resistance in the Feb gold should not come into play until the 302-305 area. Failure of it to even reaching that point would not be good. In either case, some profit taking could be warranted as a 'normal' correction 'should' be expected. We'll see how it develops!

Strad Master
(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:24 - ID#250297)
STRADDLER: You took the words out of my mouth. Your reasoning is precicely why I'm still holding my minimal short position in gold. My long silver is more than taking care of any minimal loss there but because of low volume and mostly short covering, a fast move to the downside ( remember perception of the fundamentals hasn't changed at all ) could carry the precious yellow stuff a lot lower. Those who are long gold shold be VERY careful at this point. I hate it when my Kitco buddies are depressed.

Strad Master
(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:27 - ID#250297)
Christmas Greetings!
ALL WHO CELEBRATE CHRISTMAS: May this golden holiday bring with it abundant peace, joy, and blessiangs to all! Merry Christmas!!!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:32 - ID#31868)
Peace on Earth
and goodwill toward all, there is no reason to exist unless it is to be kind.

Okay, this is goin to hurt. Even Camdesuss and Karlito.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:33 - ID#287207)
JTF: Actually all provinces of Canada have attacked the deficit as of this year when Quebec joined the rest of Canada --on this issue atleast.

Alberta completed its deficit and debt war some years ago and now has a $2 billion surplus expected this year. Actually it is instructive to read the comments about Canada's economic situation from folks who seem to be well informed and confident and to realize that they know nothing about what they are talking about. Fits in with the "gold is going up" theme around here for the past 18 months.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:34 - ID#57232)
Straddler-there is something to be said for buying matched puts and calls in this market!
Thanks for the words of caution. This site tends to get wrapped up in the fundamentals, and any rally, no matter how small, gets everyone in a frenzy. Some of those fundamentals go back to Methusaleh! Easy way to lose money if you pile in, just before the rally fizzles. No wonder the "Oldman", pro that he is, often uses us as a contrarian indicator! Wish I knew 1/2 of what he knows!

Merry Christmas!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:35 - ID#426220)
Message fromm the Sultan of Brunei Darussalam
To Mr. William Gates:

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:35 - ID#231101)
re: aurator's query about the golden apples

With the possibility before us of a gold rally, it seems appropriate to respond to aurator's question at 2:58 a.m. He askes "Who threw the golden apples?" I believe he refers to the apple-man himself, Apollo, who threw golden apples down to Hera as a wedding present. The myth of golden apples has many variations, but Apollo, the sun god represented gold, while Dianna, the moon god represented silver. We might very well be witnessing the incarnation of that lovely myth with gold and silver emerging from the darkness. I would add there is another version concerning golden apples involving the twelve tasks of Hercules, who set out to find the golden apples which had been stolen from Hera. I hope all will find the myth an apt symbolism for our revived hopes for gold.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:36 - ID#23195)
Could not find the panic button
Seem to have shortcommings in the option tradebusiness
Wife is calling for christmas dinner
Best wishes to all

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:42 - ID#57232)
Canada leads the way in NA on balancing the budget!
Selby: Thanks for setting me straight. Two billion in the black for Alberta! Now, if my fellow Americans would start reading the news, and see what is being done to them. The only state that is coming close is New Jersey, Governed by Christy Whittman. Given what I know about New Jersey, it is amazing that she is still in one piece! All of those gambling interests.

I think the upsurge in our economy just came at the moment balancing the budget was beginning to be a hot topic of discussion. Too bad it faded. I wonder what will happen the next time the American people feel like "rocking the boat" and refuse to pay more taxes! Turmoil at the top at the very least!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:44 - ID#285309)
To All
Have a Merry Christmas and a GREAT New Year!!!!

I am absolutely certain that 1998 will see justice in the markets. Step aside you paper fools!

I have just added all I could to my longs, physical as well as GOLD stocks ( paper money backed by gold in the ground ) .

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:44 - ID#294232)
If we look around the world today, we have to view the risk of playing
into a false gold rally, on the fundamentals of what could happen to
create the market mania that sooner or later will attach itself to Gold!
I see alot of possibilities, anyone of which would put the icing on the
cake for gold. I guess only time will tell.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:52 - ID#57232)
Feeling better? -- Signing off must check on spouse who clearly has the flu after the flu shots.
tolerant1: Hope you are feeling better. The world is waking up to the value of having hard assets, even if their only use is to turn around and sell them -- for food and shelter.

Please keep in mind that this year is especially bad for colds and flu -- if you let your emotions get the best of you, you will get sick, and then you cannot help anyone, least of all yourself. Anyway, we don't really want to set up a collection for your legal defense ( grin thingy, as Donald would say )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:57 - ID#31868)
Always the voice of reason. My particular anguish is not of my doing, I will get over it though.

My very Best Wishes to you and your's.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:59 - ID#257114)
Happy Holidays to all
Steady, what kind of physical did you purchase? I was thinking of adding more $10 Liberty's. It's not so difficult for me to pull the trigger and buy these coins. It's a great feling and even greater when the shipment arrives at my house disguised as car parts.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 11:59 - ID#285309)
Heading South Again
US major indexes heading south!!

Barb Hughes
(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:02 - ID#20783)
Holiday Thoughts

Im sure you have read the thoughts of Burkett and others at one time or another
but, maybe today is a good day for reminiscing! Happy holiday to all and my
thoughts are aprox. 282+310/2=296 which would be normal....Hope I'm wrong.

Apart from the aesthetic appeal, gold has no intrinsic value ... that is, under the
simplest of conditions. Isolated bands of men could do little to survive on a diet of
gold; or to shelter themselves in warm clothing spun of the metal; or build
protection from the elements stronger than readily available stone materials.

However, Gold and Silver came to represent something other than the basic needs
for living. Golds scarcity and durability were what made it a medium of exchange
back as far as 4300 B.C. in Egypt. Coins of Gold and Silver have circulated
throughout and spread influence for trade over the world.

Primitive societies recognized the importance of many commodities like seashells,
sperm-whale teeth, curved tusks or good live stock. Although these mediums
existed, for some reason gold and silver metallics survived because of their unique
durability and acceptance. Gold, gold-adorned objects, and gold coins have served
as a medium of exchange and measure of value for many centuries.

Charles Mackay aptly pointed out in his classic analysis in 1841 of economic
fallacies: the madness of crowds. That is to say, that certain financial investments
can go astray. Whether it is toys, land speculation, or stock market investments,
the common denominator is volume as a factor in supply/demand. Usually too
many people trying to UNLOAD the same commodity at the same time. PANIC!

FEAR of economic considerations have caused many people to flee into hard
currencies like metals. This is sound as long as the end use of the commodity
chain exists.

In the 1930s you could purchase a car full of groceries with either a $20 bill or a
$20 gold coin but, the same relationship does not exist today. Whereas, the $20
bill will now purchase one-half to one bag ( paper that is, not plastic ) of groceries,
the $20 gold coin can still most familys car.

Precious metals do have a relationship with reality. They move with economic
INFLATION and DEFLATION. One could almost say that they represent
standard value ( constant dollars ) around which paper currencies fluctuate. The
paper merely signifying borrowed or reserve status, whereas the end commodity
represents the present value.

During the last major World depression, silver fell in dollar value $1.25 down to
24 cents ) but, so did the wholesale price index reflecting constant value
conversion. Since gold was artificial when pegged upward to $32.00 per ounce,
the same relationship cannot be drawn for gold as the market was not free to seek
its own level.

Precious metals move with the velocity and intensity of industrial supply/demand
factors PLUS current economic considerations including FEAR and PANIC.

The commodity in need the most will reevluate itself in relation to established
present value. CIVILIZED MAN has yet to learn to prepare a good PRECIOUS
METAL SANDWICH but, has enjoyed thousands of years in TRADING the two.
Which will go up in value depends upon world conditions in the future ...guess
right and you can enjoy confidence in ANY eventuality.

It has been said that in order to build something to last 500 years, your best bet is
GOLD. It represents permanence......both physically and value.

take care barb

Emerald Heights
(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:04 - ID#227311)
My business is safety inspections of all types of products, donuts
cookers to advance micro computers. I cover about 50 + companies. I
worked for Kodak many years as Elec&Mech design engineer until the down
size. What a great opportunity that gave me. So far I have had one
business failure which gave me much insight and now I am doing very well with the second venture. God, I really love capitalism, it allows me to
and get up and try again.
Your post mentioned my favorite place in the world,Lake Tahoe. Its a
magic place, not just its physical beauty but a rare feeling that lifts
your sprit and make all things right with the world. I am again
considering a condo at the lake. I am sorry to admit I do not play poker
but I know that feeling when you hit the big pot, I play craps and
love the excitement. I note you also believe in silver. With the event
of digital photography ( and it must and will get better ) will not the use of silver halide technology decline? I have been buying gold recently as
I think the Asian problem will get a lot worse ( just as insurance ) . I also worry about the stock portfolio,and thinking about selling the
whole thing,invest in local real estate and sleep better a night.
( what is IMNHO? ) Regards, Emerald Heights.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:05 - ID#298259)
Isure - Bema
According to J. DiGeorgia, editor of Silver & Gold report, the Placer Dome deal short-term... was not what investors were looking for... but long term, this was one of the best moves Bema could make.

DiGeorgia says that disappointed invesors and money managers trashed Bema's stock on the news because they figured since Bema didn't sell out, something must be wrong. He further states that with gold in a slump he figured that Bema would have brought around $9/share. DiGeorgia said that Clive Johnson ( Bema's CEO ) knew the company was worth a lot more than that. He said Clive wasn't going to let gold's temporary weakness scare him into selling out for a penny less.

At the risk of disappointing shareholders short term, he made a long-term agreement with Placer that could multiply his shareholders profits several times over. His deal allows Bema to keep 49% of Aldebaran. Additionally, Placer Dome will foot the bill for half of the entire project and guarantee 100% of the financing needed to build the mine.

49% of 20 mill oz of proven gold means the co's share is 9.8 mill oz. At gold's low price of $290, Bema's 9.8 mill oz is worth over $2.8 billion. Figuring its share of the mining cost at a conservative $125/oz, Bema stands to take in $1.6 bill over the next several years.

With 110 mill shares outstanding, DiGeorgia estimates the deal is worth $14.50/sh. And that doesn't include a penny for any new gold finds that might turn up at Aldebaran, or a host of other smaller properties Bema owns. Nor does it include a single ounce of the nearly 6 mill oz of existing gold Bema owns at the Refugio mine. DiGeorgia believes Bema could fetch up to $18/sh, twice what it could have gotten in a buyout.

What if the price of gold stays low or even moves to the $250 level? DiGeorgia says Placer Dome had already factored in a low gold price because it doesn't expect gold to get back to $375 for another year or so. DiGeorgia said to pay up to $3/sh...this was when Bema's price was at $2/sh.

Hope this helps you. I myself have a good position in this stock.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:06 - ID#30238)


(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:07 - ID#426220)
TO ALL: May the New Year crowd your lives with abundant Health, Wealth &

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:07 - ID#255284)
Chaos, Confusion, Flux and Discord...It's Christmas downunder!
Voyeur Professor, the golden apple ( one ) of my trivia question was thrown by Eris, I guess there are many variations of the story, this is the one I know:

Eris is famous for indirectly causing the Trojoan War. Myth has it that having been intentionally overlooked when the invitations were sent for the wedding of Peleus and Thetis ( discord is not a favorite during wedding vows ) , she disobeyed and crashed the party anyway. Spitefully, she rolled the famous Apple of Discord across the dance floor. The Apple, as the legend goes, was marked "For the Fairest" and was claimed by Athene, Aphrodite, and Hera. Since only one of the three could be THE fairest, Paris was called to judge the first beauty contest. Aphrodite won by bribing him with the most beautiful woman in the world, who just happened to be Helen of Troy and the "possession" ( as women were in those barbaric days ) of another man. So the Trojan War began.

Eris, then is the Goddess of Discord, of Confusion, of CHAOS ( cherokee ) which is why she sits on the aurators left shoulder ( shes wearing a becoming red hat and a false white beard today, but shes just in disguise. ) whispering words of obfuscation and flux, trying to confuse, and often succeeding. Eris was the reason ( ? ) I did not get to JM yesterday

There is an Eris Society, see what Eris Looked like?

The book list by Erisian Authors contains many books and authors know to kitcoites including Blanchard, Davidson

The cry for the Erisian Faithfull All hail Discordia

A date converter, to convert Gregorian days to Erisian days, and hence ( ? ) avoiding the Y2K problem?

May your Christmas be filled with the joy and laughter of the ones you love.


(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:08 - ID#254269)
Since it's so quiet here today ,

can anyone tell me where the expression "Bulls and Bears" originated ?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:10 - ID#254269)
@ Donald; Did Manchester write "World lit only by fire "

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:13 - ID#286410)
Holiday wishes.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to Bart and the Kitco
posters and your families. Thanks for sharing your wealth of
information with us small investors. Bless you all.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:14 - ID#26793)
@Mr. Mick
Yes. You read that right. Foreign banks must operate under the rules of the host country so they had no authority to do otherwise. Did you also notice that the BOJ will need to discuss this with the BIS to get their approval? I would like to be a fly on the wall at that meeting! If approval is granted I would interpret that as Japan being in such a bad situation that the entire world monetary system could collapse if approval is not granted. This is a desperate move by the BOJ. Also notice the lack of reporting of this news anywhere but Kitco! ( as far as I know )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:15 - ID#238295)
gold rally
Straddler: Agree that this gold rally is suspect. Light volume, declining open interst, and the stocks not doing particularly well in relation to bullion. But do feel there is a reasonable chance the lows will hold on the next reaction.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:16 - ID#26793)
Yes. Manchester wrote that book. ( WLOBF )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:17 - ID#30238)
Monitoring site for several months
Its time to say thank you and Merry Christmas to all kitco posters. As a trader and gold bug this site is a proverbial gold mine. I currently trade options in the Aussie gold market-and in IMHO suggest GCM via NDY a good play. Its time for gold to break through $300. The New Year should prove an exciting and prosperous one for all kitco gold bugs. Once again Merry Christmas and a special hi to the two Nicks.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:43 - ID#7568)

To the Kitco Community:

May joy and compassion, peace and goodwill, be your constant companions. Here's hoping this holiday season finds you and your families in the best of health and spirit.

Best wishes,

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:44 - ID#285309)
tolerant1 - I hope you watched this morning's CNBC Puppet Show. It was very interesting since they had on Peter Eliades from Stock Market Cycles who is very pesimistic about the paper markets.
Peter Eliades said that we are near a huge down correction and nothing can basically stop it. Then, the fast talking puppet Cramer interupted, driveling about Microsoft and other great companies that can not go down and in fact everyone should be buying them. Insana had to stop Cramer once so Cramer could match his word output with his brain activity. I found it hilarious.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:47 - ID#403267)
silver up
EBN just showing silver at 2.36, hope kitco confirms, lookin'good!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:49 - ID#403267)
He who types without looking....

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:53 - ID#403267)
Thank You Kitco
Kitco confirms @$6.34, we broke out of .20's this is a good sign, no?
I'm gonna play "silver bells" all day long! Excuse the rational exuberance. Shorts, this is gonna hurt!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:57 - ID#257114)
Bad print?
I think 6.36 should have been 6.26.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 12:59 - ID#403267)
Nope, its right al
Showing 6.35 on kitco, 6.36 EBN

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:01 - ID#257114)
Go Baby Go
Silver just ripping off chunks of yardage. 6.36 it is.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:04 - ID#403267)
Ladies and Gentlemen, please fasten your seat belts, we are now taking out the $6.40 barrier. Excuse me, time to get irrationaly exuberant

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:04 - ID#238295)
Season's Greetings
Hope all Kitcoites have a happy and prosperous 1998. I do have doubts about the current rally, but am still very confident that the precious metals will be among the best performing investments of 1998.

On a related topic, the current frantic efforts by the IMF and its supporters to bail out Asian elites and American investors in Asia again shows that socialism is alive and well. Not for you and not for me, but for the really big boys, yes. Privatize the profits and socialize the losses is the battle cry. If this basic paradigm of today's investment markets ever comes under serious attack, Puetz's dream of the greatest stock market crash ever probably will be realized.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:12 - ID#285309)
Are the metals still running???? I thought all is closed???

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:21 - ID#24095)
@ Season's Greetings
March silver at 6.378

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:21 - ID#270230)
Let's keep this rally going

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:21 - ID#270230)
Let's keep this rally going

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:26 - ID#333232)
Trusty computer bought back the gold shares it sold a while back.
Stop loss limit at 5% off from today's close. Fear whispers "sucker's rally" so I'll just wait & see ( got to be in it to win it ) .
Happy Holy days to all.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:26 - ID#403267)
open till 2:30 I think, while the cats away!;- ) )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:31 - ID#348286)
@STELLAR Day for Canadian Gold equities
Gold +2.6 Silver +.15 . Great rally for Gold stocks.
Could we have actually seen the bottom this past month?
If so, Gold stocks will have a very happy 1998.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:33 - ID#31868)
tan range is lookin strong

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:33 - ID#333232)

Run Date and Time
Run Date and Time



SQL Statement
SELECT to_char ( sysdate,'DD-MON-YYYY HH24:MI:SS' ) FROM dual

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:34 - ID#333232)
Profuse apologies for the cut&paste debacle below... ( plus that tricky application-hopping helped )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:41 - ID#348286)
@Canadian Markets
Today was the last day for tax loss selling. This was a large factor this year, since there were BiG losses to take in the Gold sector.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:42 - ID#270230)




This award goes to the stock broker my wife and I visited.
My wife and I just left feeling like we had just been entertained for an hour by a comedian. He just couldn't get it through his head that the market ( for some god foresaken reason ) be headed down ( even slightly not abruptly ) .

Also, he has to share the award will all whom are employed with CNBC.

To all a Merry Christmas, and the only "RED" you see be the cranberry sauce on your "GOLDEN" turkey.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:43 - ID#93232)
@tolerant 1....TELL ME IT AIN'T SO......
I just got back from the office...just in time to help Lini prepare the turkey for roasting. There was a small heart and a jaundice liver inside that a big bird. I must implore, sir...Where is Camdessus? You didn't do it did you? On second thought, they might look better on a silver tray....HoHoHo....Merry Christmas T1!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:48 - ID#368249)
Bema shares

Thanks so much for the encouraging remarks and for the information on Bema. I too have a substantial interest in this company. It is not easy to find out a great deal about Bema's internal affairs. I will now be adding more BGO to my portfolio as soon as ( or if ) the price declines below $2.

Hope you and yours enjoy a safe and happy holiday.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:50 - ID#368249)
Bema shares

Thanks so much for the encouraging remarks and for the information on Bema. I too have a substantial interest in this company. It is not easy to find out a great deal about Bema's internal affairs. I will now be adding more BGO to my portfolio as soon as ( or if ) the price declines below $2.

Hope you and yours enjoy a safe and happy holiday.

Emerald Heights
(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:54 - ID#227311)
Why are they so many that would rejoice in a 1929 type crash??
The human misery and suffering it would cause the average American who
have their life saving in mutuals would be horrendous. Do they just
want to be right? Pure ego? Just to say "I told you so!" This reminds me of the popular bumper sticker "Beware! the driver of this car will
disappear when the rapture occurs" All I could think of was the mother
with 3 small children standing on the corner with the driver less car
careening into them.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 13:55 - ID#347457)
@chm and SQL
I love it when people talk to me SQL - just like when woman talk to you dirty ;- ) Oh well, us computer geeks

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:01 - ID#294232)
Watch Japan Closely Tommorow!
BOJ must take immediate action if it hopes to ward off the ASIAN FLU and
the next couple of days should give us some insight into how this will
impact the gold markets. The recent flight to safety may indeed turn out
to be a bull trap and should U.S. Treasuries sell off we may see some of
that money entering the gold markets. It would not take much to push gold
to the levels that would have hedge funds scrambling to cover. It would not surprise me to see a breakout before years end which could make for a
very interesting start for 1998.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:01 - ID#26669)
CrystalBall re your early AM post:
Sleep? What is sleep? Today's my day off and silver is bumping up onto $6.40. Besides, have you ever tried to sleep in a house full of children in the third week of December? This is unbelievable. My emotions tell me that its just a short covering rally and I should sell everything. So my intellect tells me to hold on until it gets much higher. Oh, well, nap time!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:07 - ID#31868)
STUDIO.R just for you
Where there is no dream, the people perish. We must collectively provide hope, and challenge the human spirit. Life is effort, when any individual no longer believes this they begin to wither.

Individuals that confront challenges, disabilities and disadvantages awaken each day with a sense of worth, becoming more valuable to themselves and society as a whole.

I do not pretend to be a master of the issues, nor do I believe that I alone have the collective wisdom and foresight to make responsible decisions that will effect our lives as well as generations of the unborn yet to come. We all need to actively participate in the decisions pertaining to the world we live in and share.

Now is the time to act, to help reshape common thought and let peace, tranquillity, wisdom and spirituality guide all of us as we enter an era when humankind can truly appreciate the integrity of creation.

The entire range of inter-cultural and international affairs is at an unprecedented point in human history. There is no question that as we hurtle towards the dawn of the 21st century a miraculous window of opportunity is opening. A new age renaissance, wherein all citizens of the world will come to truly understand their inter-dependence upon one another.

Business as usual is no longer the standard fare on the global plate, new methods, a new form of understanding and a true desire to communicate are quickly altering the self-imposed myths that have held back humanity from moving forward into the sun lit river known as the future.

Instead of acting like children that shy away from the dark, let us move together, step by step, hand in hand, into a world which is illuminated by sensitivity, intellect and compassion. Let the global populace embrace a universal sense of community through the individual gift that each member of humanity brings into the world.

We must strive for a world where there is freedom to access and access to freedom. A world in which people realize that communication and teamwork are essential for all of us to live in community.

We have the tools, let each of us learn how to put them to work.

Tolerant forever

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:10 - ID#333232)
Welcome back!

What is your mother tongue? Saw small example in last nights post.
( Yet another language to investigate :? )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:11 - ID#238422)
Recent increase in gold price is directly related to short covering.
Watch US$ to determine the gold price trend, short covering by itself
is not gonna move gold above $325-345.

Merry Christmas.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:11 - ID#246224)
Emerald Heights
It has been expressed here and seconded a number of times that the bursting of this bubble will indeed bring misery and that, no, we are not interested in seeing that. Considering the culpable role of the mutual fund industry, financial 'consultants' and most people's personal ignorance and greed .. well its not the doom sayers who are making this problem, it is the market and those who participate in it irrationally.

People who lose big in this market correction are part of the problem. Many have no clue as to how to evaluate a market/fund/sector/company to determine if it is reasonable to invest in it at a certain price. As has also been iterated here a billion times we are in the midst of a mania.

I really don't think any of the regular contributers here as misanthropic or voyeristic sadists. Let's face it most here got here because they were tooking for an alternative to beening a lemming. You aswell I'm sure.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:13 - ID#403267)
223 knowTheFeeling
A lot of mention here today about a suckers rally, short covering rally, etc. Not that we haven't had a few of these this year:-0 ) ) but it is also worth noting this is the exact sentiment one would expect at the bottom of a bear market in face of the first real bull rally. Guess we will have to see what kind of Christmas present the world gives us. Signing off for the holidays, Merry Christmas to all.

Pacific Northwest Dave
(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:14 - ID#223187)
margin silver?

Does anybody out there think that silver might back down a little from it's current high? I was thinking of buying a little more silver on margin as I have done well with it in the past. I have my own private hoard and was thinking of getting a little on margin as the money making potential is high,that is if silver continues on its upswing.

I also wonder what will happen in Japan tomorrow, will they start dumping dollars as is rumored and start buying gold?

I do realize that margin is risky, but I only play what I can afford to loose.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:19 - ID#344308)

markets rise and fall------

the various seasons call---------

the best to all------------

-------MERRY CHRISTMAS------

-----------------------------------from cherokee and his tribe-----

Spud Master
(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:19 - ID#273112)
@Emerald Hieghts
No one here rejoiceing at a "1929 crash" ... just POINTING it out.

Why are not YOU instead DENOUNCING the criminals ( or as LGB calls them "forward thinking, financial-skilled leaders" ) in the Fed & Central Banks whose actions have LEAD the markets to this awful abyss?

You need a damn good slap. You will probably be amoung that whiney lot clammoring for the gold/silver of those of us who a ) tried to tell you what was going on so you could save your skin, and b ) were wise enough to buy gold/silver.

For the thousandth time, I can hear the Coward In Chief, Supreme Trousers Dropper, Smoker But Not Inhaler President in a live BROADcast from the Whitehouse: "... financial crisis provoked by the unbounded greed of gold and silver buyers ...and so, my fellow Americans, by Executive Order No. 3666 I have directed all gold and silver to be turned over to the proper Federal Authorities."

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:21 - ID#26793)
Strange news??? Citicorp making demands on So. Korea. Takeover or repossession?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:22 - ID#347457)
chm - that would Czech language I used in my post last night. Yes, it is my mother tongue.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:23 - ID#26669)
Myrmidon re 02:12 post::
Your question about where to go if the US continues to degenerate is the big question.

New Zealand would be a thought, but in the scenerio of actually needing gold to flee ( like in the destruction of Jerusalem in the 1st century AD or the Nazi holocaust or the Pol Pot regime or the Rwanda massacres ) well if the US ever got to that point, chances are some big unfriendly Pacific Rim country would bulldoze NZ and convert it to a brothel and storage shed. Ditto for Australia. Its a large open country which could be repopulated easily by a determined and relatively ill armed army of Asian ( Chinese? ) immigrants. Both countries look really good on the surface, have nice people and good social structure, but appear lack the hardnosed belligerant street fighting savvy which could protect them if somebody tried to invade.

South America, particularly Peru or Argentina comes to mind, but for the Sindero Luminoso, still biding its time in the mountains. And neither country really has the resources to roll out the welcome mat for fleeing Americans.

The asteroid belt maybe?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:24 - ID#31868)
Spud Master
I will dive on the bayonets so that you can march across my back and get that Executive professing bastard.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:25 - ID#26793)
@Pacific Northwest Dave
I am surprised by how much silver has run up without a significant retracement. Maybe a silver mania is replacing a Dow mania.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:28 - ID#23782)
Does the amount of open interest make a difference
in the short covering rally scenerio?

There are 185,048 contracts out there.
Is that an historicaly typical amount?

If it is far above average, then I have stronger
belief that the current rally has legs.

Happy holidays to all.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:31 - ID#288155)
To the Kitco posters, from whom I have learned SO much,

My grateful thanks for the generous sharing of your time, talents, knowledge and experiences.

And my sincere and heartfelt wishes for a very Merry Christmas.

The Christmas season reminds us that a demonstration of religion is often better than a definition of it. Most of the folks on this board
make that a living creed!

Off to celebrate.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:32 - ID#26793)
IMF scientists discover cash sucking black hole

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:35 - ID#364147)
@ CAPE BRETON.......................................................JTF.........and DECKS
The deck job is on our house in Cape Breton that we are selling ( grin thing ) ----We only own LAND in Maine----till I build the damn house ( starting in March ) .....

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:36 - ID#413134)
as $300 gold nears i can't help but remember how difficult breaking thru $400 was not too long ago and when it finally did it didn't stay there...also gut feeling says recent rally unsustainable, one must keep in perspective the massive losses taken in gold stocks this year before getting overly excited...bottom fishing is one of the least successful tactics because it repeatedly sucks you into a black hole.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:37 - ID#269191)
Short covering rally?
If this is a short covering rally why is there a negative slope
to the lease rate curve with the highest rate at the shortest
lease period? Short sellers are most active at the short end.
This indicates to me that the shorts are selling into this rally
rather than covering. That indicates skepticism and in my view
increases the probability that the rally is for real.
I think we should look at the record demand coming from India and
the Middle East to account for this rally.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:38 - ID#364147)
@ Ted-bits
Spent the day hammering on the deck---will spend the evening gettin HAMMERED @ Neighbor Eddie's place~~~~~MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!! EB: is your ISP down AGAIN???

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:40 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 25.81

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:41 - ID#254269)
@ Donald ; Looks like M. Camdesus has been working late in D.C.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:42 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .254

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:43 - ID#31868)
get Camdesuss!!!!!!!!!!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:43 - ID#26793)
Silver/Gold Ratio = 46.37

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:45 - ID#26793)
Carving up American Turkey Taxpayers to feed the greedy, not the needy.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:45 - ID#254269)
@ Donald; What has the Gold/Silver ratio been traditionally ?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:46 - ID#238422)
@Pacific Northwest Dave

Donald_A is correct. When everybody is bullish, time to sell -
- common rule to follow, usually works.

Japan will sell some of their US Treasuries holdings, could be up to
30-35%, but because Japan does not want Uncle Sam to be upset too much ( for political reasons ) , JAPAN WILL NOT DUMP US DEBT OVERNIGNT under
any conditions.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:47 - ID#254269)
A Tolerant 1; Serious question following;
Putting aside your feelings re M. Camdessus; what would be going on
right now in the markets if IMF were not doing what they are doing ?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:49 - ID#26793)
During antiquity it was 10:1. During the time of Columbus I think it was 13:1. Isaac Newton figured it at 16:1 Recently it has been 75:1 Someone please correct me. There is a site that discusses it. I have to go out for about an hour but will try to get more exact when I return.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:50 - ID#57232)
Look at Silver!
All: I'm wondering -- if you are destitute on a desert island, and you want assistance - you send up a flare. Could silver be our flare for gold? This silver spike will attract attention for years to come. At this rate, we will hit $7.00 very soon. Does anyone know when this will end?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:52 - ID#31868)
Two wrongs do not make a right. An eye for an eye leaves us blind. The lies must be stopped, adversity allows us to thrive. We have the strength to see this through.

We will be better for it.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:53 - ID#348129)
@Camdessus: An ENEMY of GOLD

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:53 - ID#26793)
@Avalon: This may be the site. Bye.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:53 - ID#316232)
Sucker Rally?
STRAD MASTER AND STRADDLER... Are you two related?

I understand your caution about this recent rally, but I disagree because of several indications:

1. Long term US bond rate has dropped as low as 5.85 and then leveled off for several days at 5.90%. In the previous 6 months, the rate kept dropping in fake rallies and eventually took gold back down with it. Without another crisis creating flight to the dollar or Fed intervention, the bond has peaked.

2. Almost every gold stock I watch has moved up substantially from its recent low and all show tendencies to move up instead of down.

3. XAU and stocks are moving slowly and steadily, which provides lots of time for sellers to sell and buyers to buy. They are still moving up, telling me there are more convinced buyers.

4. London gold is responding, today up $4.20. Jberg gold index up very nice this week. These are not overly-influenced by Comex trading and in the past fell back quickly. This time they are leading the pack, indicating the demand is international, not just another short covering on the Comex.

5. The rand is leveling against the dollar, and the UK pound and Dmark both are going up against the dollar. With major currencies, only the yen is losing. The dollar is losing its lead position, I believe because the Fed is pouring cash into the bond market, adding liquidity, and indirectly diluting the dollar.

6. These are all short term trends, and can reverse, but it would take another major new policy decision or crisis. Therefore I think the weaking dollar and increasing metal price trends will continue for awhile.

... Merry Christmas to everyone. Friday should be an eventful day.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:54 - ID#57232)
Silver/gold ratio?
Donald: Whatever you say it is, your better talk quickly! This looks like a convincing silver corner to my inexperienced Physicists eyes.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:55 - ID#173274)
@the scene
I hope all are enjoying the positive numbers for a change. I'll simply say keep enjoying them until the markets say otherwise! 6.40 silver. Is that high enough? Was 6.00 last week high enough? Apparently not! 298.50 on Feb gold. Is that high enough? Why should it be? I'd hate to think that people dived out just when the getting was becoming good, not that any profit taken from the markets isn't good. All major trend changes must begin somewhere. Whether or not this is it will be unknown until it is proven, but it could also BE it, and it would be nice to be in at/near the bottom of a trend change. Given the global economic picture as it is, this really COULD BE it for the metals. The least you should be doing is buying some of that physical stuff and taking it home! No need to leverage if it makes one uncomfortable. Go for the protection of physical ownership AND possession. As in the other countries, 'whirlwinds' of change seem to happen overnight and all of a sudden, your paper is deemed to be near worthless in trading for goods and services! Don't be caught with your pants down, ( or your skirt blown up ) . Markets can and do move awfully far and fast at times!

I also want to wish all a fine Holiday!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:56 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures relased after today's trading:

Gold: Rose by 3,811 ounces to 487,689

Silver: Tumbled 816,424 ounces to 110,689,054 ( A new 13 year low )

Do not stand in front of the powerful Silver Bull and do no try to decide about where it should stop moving higher because the big bull markets almost always go higher than most can believe. And as expected, it does help Gold a bit.

The inventory withdrawals are stunning indeed and the last time the stocks levels were this low was in the first quarter of 1985 at 106.6 million! Below this figure, we have to go back to the 2nd quarter of 1983 when stocks went as low 90.0 million. Inventories of Silver bullion as a percentage of consumption will fall to a new low at the end of 1997 and be far lower than anything we have witnessed in the 1979-80 bull market.


(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:56 - ID#254269)
@ Tolerant 1; I fully agree with you that that two wrongs do not make a
right and I have no love for Camdesus. All I am trying to do is to understand what woud be happening otherwise. If Korea goes broke
( which it seems to be already ) , what happens ? Wouldn't Citibank and the Wall Street crowd just step in anyway ? Maybe I'm missing
something ?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:57 - ID#30116)
$PREM for DJ
DJ -- I'm no expert ( and I can prove that! ) , but the $PREM ( premium for the nearby S&P 500 futures contract over cash ) has a daily computed fair market value. This has to do with the fact that the value of the futures contract changes as the contract expiration approaches. Futures prices are generally higher than spot price because of future expectations and storage costs etc. Thus, the $PREM has meaning only for the current trading session. I'll put up some charts later of the $PREM to illustrate the point. If the $PREM runs up on the overnight session, it will drop dramatically when the NYSE opens as the S&P 500 will rise to discount the premium difference. Thus you will be left with todays 'fair market value' at some point. The $PREM will then rise or fall depending on the current sessions sentiments. Did I confuse you? :- ) )

Come to think of it, I don't think I did a real good job putting this in to words...

Spud Master
(Wed Dec 24 1997 14:59 - ID#273112)
@Avalon - in liue of a response fromTolerant1
Without the criminal manipulation by world Central Banks, inept governments and wannabe-godlike financial manipulators, what would be going on is a fair market that would NEVER have gotten into this mess: small endless corrections as mistakes were made and corrected by a free market.

Instead we have had a manipulated market ( with their remoras riding along - EB, LGB, Karlito99 ) , those "in power" unwilling to pay for their less-than-godlike behaviour and performance, have prevented the small corections ( and their losses ) from being realized. The house of cards they have built on a foundation of lies, painted with promises they can't deliver on, and mortared with the savings of citizens world-wide must collapse. They, the manipulators, the politicians, seldom suffer - no doubt they'll be off in the Bahamas with young boys, sipping chilled wine and snorting cocaine, while the "common" people in Thailand, Malaysia, Korea, Phillipines, Mexico, Canada, and US suffer collapsing economies, loss of retirement savings and degraded standards of living.

After it's over in a few years, the manipulators will come crawling back, all smiles, and begin the scam again. A very Merry Christmas to you, Avalon.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:00 - ID#31868)
We as a race need to fully embrace humility. For we are nothing without humility.

We must have the fortitude which allows compassion to be given without price.


The Hatt
(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:00 - ID#294232)
They Caught the U.S. by surprise WHY NOT AGAIN???????
The solution to some of the immediate problems worldwide is the U.S. buck
is far too strong. Although if we look further there are still a couple of other pots boiling and they could have a devastating effect on our
fragile position. Namely:RUSSIA? IRAQ? We hane not seen the last of these
two yet!

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:04 - ID#231101)
those who teach are invariably taught by others


Thank you for your reminder of an important myth that shaped the circumstances of Homer's "Iliad" and "Odyssey"-- two works that I have taught for years. Paris, as you say, choses Aphrodite, the goddess of beauty, obviously symbolic of youthful desire. And, yes, there are several variations of the myth. Apollo, like Eris, was both a destroyer and a giver of life. His association with gold ( he is, after all, the sun god ) does have numerous expressions in myth. Do you know W.B. Yeats' poem, "Song of the Wandering Angus"?
"silver apples of the moon,
golden apples of the sun."
Let's hope the sun and moon thrive in 1988! Happy holiday to all!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:05 - ID#347457)
a few thought for this holiday season
My Kitco friends, may you all have a happy holiday season and the very best new year.

I would also like to add a few words to our discussion last night about where the US may go in coming years. It perplexes me that some of you may treat my view of the US using historical parallels with other powerful nations in the past as US bashing. That would be a total misunderstanding of my views. After all, I made this country my home by my own choice and while I made many mistakes in my life, I believe that my choice was a good one.

At the same time, it is my strong belief that any country and nation is a living organism, system which goes through the lifecycle just like any other systems. To identify parallels and similarities with other countries in the past is very useful. We made the biggest mistakes when we refuse to learn from the past, thinking that we are invincible, that we dont need to change, that we can continue forever our prosperity without making adjustments to how we operate. It is part of life that we grow older, go to the top and eventually slide back, be replaced by new generation. There is nothing wrong with that, and if we adjust our "behavior" there is even a good chance that if we loose our dominance we can come back ( and maybe even stronger than we were before )

Unfortunately, this is not possible if we do not recognize that this is a part of natural cycle, close our eyes and behave like there is nobody who can take our position ( we are the best and will stay that way forever ) .

Many of you indicated that there are countries which may become superpowers of tomorrow. Many of you brush this idea as ridiculous saying "who? China? Russia? Impossible!! ) Well, go back to history again. Every nation which grew to a superpower role were originally treated by the existing powers as "barbarian, uncivilized, underdeveloped, there is no chance they would defeat us". However, over and over they were wrong and "impossible" happened.

No I am not bashing the US, I just think that the US as a superpower will be replaced and it is just a matter of time and if we do not adjust a behavior of our system in the US, and behavior toward the rest of world, it may be sooner than we would like.

Again, may we all have a peacefull holiday and coming year.

take care - Miro

(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:06 - ID#30116)
Spud Master
Spud Master-- Excellent 11:23! What? Things that matter are rising in price? NO! Surely you jest! :- ) )


(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:07 - ID#364147)
Tolerant1..................................................and Christmas Eve HOSTILITY
Tolerant1: Re-"Cam" babby----go for the juggler!! JTF: Cape Breton ain't Toronto-Alberta-BC-ect-ect- ect.....

(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:08 - ID#364147)
I am a MORON
Babby = baby~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:10 - ID#254269)
@ Tolerant 1' I thought I asked a serious question.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:16 - ID#238422)

Yes, US$ is weakening in relation to DM and UK Pound.
But this weakening is so marginal at this time, that
you can not really consider it to be a trend, it's more
of a normal deviation for now.

US$ should weaken at least 20% in relation to the
other major currencies in order for gold ( quoted in
US$, by the way ) to move from $300/oz to $400/oz.
It's pretty straight forward correlation.

It is now in the interests of US Economy to see
US$ weakening 20% or so, and I expect it to happen,
hopefully in 1998. As a side effect, we may probably
be able to make some money in gold and gold stocks.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:28 - ID#413134)
@supplyside economics
current dwindling warehouse inventory of silver associated as a reason for the recent rally is misleading...there is at least half that supply just sitting in the bins of mining cos gathering dust ( not to mention whats still in the ground ) ...also increased production has already begun, will flood the market at some point early '98...only question is how high the current rally ? gold is better bet, more precious and harder to find...go long !

(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:31 - ID#246224)
Well *SOMEBODY* wanted to be long very badly at the end of this short trading day! ( And that with a holiday and light friday trading followed by a weeked. ) Silver spike at the end, last 30 minutes. Physical silver is *fleeing* Comex on a sustained daily basis. Lease rates are indicating reticence to lend in the short term. Last night's post on a number of $7.00 strike price calls issued, etc.

Now if the shorts were trying to cover ( some of them anyway ) and they are feeling that silver is going up ... then there just might be something of substance beyond a covering rally. What is it they are seeing beyond the effect of their own buying to cover??? Possibly an inventory squeeze on the horizon and they want out before it hits with a vengence, eh?

There may be retracement yet at the point when buyers begin to hold back to catch their breath. Is there sufficient commitment on their side? At what point do they begin to question the sustainability of the price?

Silver has been upward trending since its July low ( $4.25 ) .
$4.50 ( +6% from thew low ) and a drop to $4.35
$4.75 ( +14% from retrace ) and a drop to $4.60
$5.25 ( +14% from retrace ) and a drop to $4.80 level.
$6.40 ( +33% from retrace ) Next drop??? ( guess $5.50 to $5.75 ) .

This last move has been pretty steep. If we get into a buying panic because of inventory problems how will we know when to take profits? Any guesses?

Good ol' boy
(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:31 - ID#26362)
Peace on earth, good will toward men
To all Kitcoites. May the wind always be at your backs, may you always enjoy fair weather, and may your investment strategies always be right.

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:31 - ID#295111)
Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, Happy Holidays
To ALL Kitcoites:

This is truly one of my favorites sites!!! I appreciate the many good posts throughout the year. Thank you so very much to ALL for your contributions and SEASONS GREETINGS.

( My prediction for the new year.....Gold hits a high of $450-$500, we've seen the lows the past few weeks and there's no stopping the run up on Gold's the start of a long Bull run! )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:34 - ID#401349)
I love the smell of optimism
Folks, this miniscule blip in pog and gold/silver stocks has been a real xmas bonus. I have made a rather considerable paper profit in en, fn, and paa during the last month and minor to modest gains in others. As I mentioned in a previous post, these circumstances have allowed us to determine which stocks will be most sensitive to a real rally. The profit potential here is enormous. VGZ is the only one I am disappointed in but it could double in a heartbeat. I am looking hard at buying tlq, metlf, and, perhap, tnx. I wish I had more time to visit this site. I have probably missed a lot, but many thanks for sharing your thoughts. I wish you all the very best in the new year.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:42 - ID#201238)
comex gold data

Comex warehouse gold stocks rose 3,811 oz today to 487,689 oz.

Eligible stocks rose 1,017 oz to 152,515 oz.

Curious movements going on here - Morgan G. religible gold stocks dropped 16,730 oz while Chase eligible gold stocks rose 17,747 oz. Looks like year-end position ssquaring, etc.

Methinks that Santa is going to leave a lump of coal in the stockings of some of these who have shorted gold. When they reach in to buy back the gold, there won't be any!

Merry Chrictmas to all!!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:42 - ID#93232)
I really can't remember reading a contemporaneous work as powerful as this essay. I marvel at its eloquence and emotion....and I will study it and participate in your inspiration for years to come. May God continue to bless you.

P.S. I hope and pray that Gore or one of his speech writers do not find would win an election.

Emerald Heights
(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:43 - ID#227311)
ALLEN(USA) & Spud master
First: SM. For me to denounce anyone without personal knowledge of their
wrong doing would be foolish. I am sure you must have such personal
knowledge to do so. As far as being part of that wining group who wants
to take your gold...wrong assumption.. with out property rights America
does not exist.
ALLEN: Thank you for your well reasoned post. I did not mean to malign any of the regulars at Kitco. I agree with you and the villains you point
out. Enjoyed your post on "the system" and agree
Seasons greeting to SM & ALLEN

(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:48 - ID#246224)
Emerald & All
ALL - Mery Christmas. BB Friday. Hold down the fort, I'll bring reinforcements!!! :- )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:53 - ID#25883)
Frustrated ( Isure - Bema ) ID#298259: The information you posted on Bema as relayed by another letterwriter is so far off in facts and filled with dreamy expectations that it is only worthy to note this to those who may be misinformed and risk investment based on your post.

Happy holidays to all


(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:55 - ID#57232)
Best wishes to all! Especially tolerant1 -- this is for you too!
Avalon: I think tolerant1 has something on his mind - so you are not getting the simple answer you expect. What you are getting is probably the solution to the root cause of the problem -- that our ( collective ) human weaknesses got us into the world-wide financial mess we are in.

A cyclist by the name of P.R. Sarkar made some historical observations that have some relevance. He spotted four types of dominance in human behavior, which I need to learn about as well. Maybe "Cyclist" can help:

1. Warriors -- Stamina, courageous, enjoy risk, solve problems by coercion. Maintain law and order.

2. Intellectuals -- Develop mental skills, and solve problems by reasoning. Deveop progressive philosophies

3. Acquisitor -- strive for wealth and comfort. Money is the cure all.

Acquisitors manage the economy.

4. Labourers -- Those who actually do the work. Less driven than the other three -- more likely to be expoited than the others for various reasons.

My guess is that the acquisitors are still "in power". P.R. Sarkar says something very interesting, clearly written before our current times:

The cycle goes like this -- The warriors gradually relinquish their power to the intellectuals, who finally relinquish it to the acquisitors. A social revolution occurs when a large majority of the population is reduced to poverty at the end of the reign of the acquisitors, and the age of the laborer begins the cycle again.

My comment is the following: It is clear to me where we are in this ( overly simplified ) cycle. What is now happening is not what we think -- we are not moving forward toward the wealth of the "great society" that some of our leaders have talked about in the US, but away from it. The US middle class has to work harder and harder each year just to keep up, and our wealth is being sucked away ( for whatever reason ) to the hands of the few, despite what our leaders are telling us. The instability of our cultural system is reflected by the hardship placed on the average member of that cultural system.

I think tolerant1 is alluding to this fundamental problem of human nature -- this cycle must be broken for the human race to advance. We can no longer tolerate this kind of exploitation of humans, regardless of the ideology or the type of exploiter -- be it big government or big business or big religion. I'm sure there are other exploiters that I have missed.

Spud Master
(Wed Dec 24 1997 15:55 - ID#273112)
@Emerald Heights
You made ill-informed statements, Emerald Heights. Think again before you accuse many of us here of "rejoicing in a 1929 crash". Engage brain, THEN type.

Shall we be like Neville Chamberlain, peace in our time, and wait for today's Hitlers ( in business suits this time ) to herd us off to financial gas chambers?

When should we protest? Now, while we still have a chance, or later, like the wiped-out Koreans, Thais, Malays, Indonesians?

You are in need of education. A lot easier to learn it here, than six months from now, with a shattered life's savings and burned out mutual funds.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:04 - ID#57232)
Please -- this is a holiday! We should be wishing each other well -- not ill!
All: We don't even have our usual disruptors -- we should be able to keep the peace.

Merry Christmas! Signing off for now!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:06 - ID#286230)
Acuqisitor's Rule in the land of Ice and Snow--well rain at the moment
The C$ dives and the economy booms:

Canadian economy grows in October

OTTAWA ( CP ) - There's more good news than meets the eye in a Statistics
Canada report that the economy grew at an annual rate of 4.2 per cent in October,says a senior economist. The economy picked up in most sectors as manufacturers boosted production andwholesalers enjoyed brisk business, advancing the gross domestic product by 0.2per cent in October, the same pace as in September.
Doug Porter, a senior economist from Toronto investment dealer Nesbitt Burns said Wednesday "the report is actually stronger than the actual headline result would suggest.
"The Ontario teachers strike cut two-tenths of a percentage point off growth, so adjusting for that, growth was actually quite solid in the month."
Manufacturing output bounced back by 0.9 per cent following a 0.1 per cent decline in September and a 0.4 per cent decline in August.
Production increased in 19 of 22 major goups, with transportation equipment, foodstuffs, electrical and electronic equipment and metal products accounting for nearly 60 per cent of the gain.
A 3.0 per cent increase in motor-vehicle production was the first in four months,the agency said.
"The underlying results are still quite solid. If you just look at the business sector, it rose 0.5 per cent in the month and is up 5.6 per cent in the past year and that's a powerful performance," Porter said.
Wholesaling activity rose 1.6 per cent in October, led by sales of motor vehicles and parts, and apparel.
Sales of industrial machinery and computer and software packages advanced for the fifth month in a row.
There were declines in sales of lumber and building materials, and farm machinery.

Retailing rose 0.4 per cent in October, the fourth consecutive monthly increase,
reflecting higher sales of motor vehicles.
Mining rebounded by 1.0 per cent, with non-ferrous metal mines picking up production by 7.7 per cent.
Business services advanced a further 0.7 per cent in October, but educational services fell sharply because of the strike by Ontario teachers.
Nesbitt Burns expects the November result to be similar to October's, with growth held back both by the second week of the Ontario teachers strike and by the postal workers strike.
"We'll probably see something similar to this 0.2 ( per cent ) , but I would suggest that the December result will be quite strong because both of the strikes will have ended by then and the early results are pointing to quite a strong season for sales,"Porter said.
Overall, the outgoing year was one of the best years of the decade, he says. "Year-over-year growth is now slightly more than four per cent, which is quite
impressive performance," Porter added.
He expects growth to gradually ease over the course of 1998 but still be close to three per cent.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:06 - ID#364147)
Holidays are a great time ta FIGHT(let's get it on dudes)
FOOD FIGHT~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:10 - ID#364147)
Merry Christmas my Canadian friend!!!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:11 - ID#26793)
Stumbled across this site. Old books on gold. May be of interest.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:13 - ID#26793)
BONK!!! Got you with a Christmas fruitcake.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:14 - ID#57232)
A question for the geologists/gold&silver miners
Silver production is 75% inelastic -- secondary to lead/copper/zinc/gold ( ? ) mining -- am I right? Then, during an economic downturn when demand for lead/copper/zinc drops would be just the time silver prices would be most likely to rise.

My question is this: Are there enough pure silver "plays" out there to keep the lid on silver prices, or must the silver be mined with the lead/ copper/zinc? That would be quite expensive I would think when there is no demand for the other metals! Is this part of the "key" behind the silver corner?

Haggis -- AuProducer? Others?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:17 - ID#26669)
Do ityourself silver chart! (or defeated by modern ftp technology) O.K. I really tried, but the intricacies of FTP still elude me. So yous guys will have to manually set the chart to silver base versus US dollar then look at the base silver formed since the last bottom.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:23 - ID#287207)
Ted: A Merry Christmas to you.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:24 - ID#57232)
Ted and Donald
Be careful with Christmas Fruitcakes -- the ones I get are heavy when I am only trying to eat them -- like a lead weight in the stomache! I remember one relative who would dutifully give us one each year for Christmas. We never had the heart to tell our relative that it was so dense that the prior ones from years past were still unfinished. Even a gold ingot would be less dense, and comparable in durability to one of those Fruitcakes.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:29 - ID#222167)
Merry Crash-mas to all.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:30 - ID#364147)
Hey Donald that hurt!!!!!!!....
JTF was right---them things can get real dense ( like me ) ~~~~~~

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:32 - ID#215208)
Merry Xmas all!
First, anyone on the East coast ( USA ) that is reading this real-time should immediately turn off the computer and turn to the family! My warmest wishes go with you.

Channels comment: I'm not sure that channels really have meaning in this trading environment, but here goes.

Silver: Wow! I thought it was somewhat unrealistic to define a channel with a 130% per year upward slope. But silver has surged to the top of this channel. May blow the top off. And except for this last Christmas spike, the movement has been slow and strong. Not similar to the quick movements of platinum and palladium when they blew through the tops of their respective channels due to metal shortages. Looks like the momentum is strong.

Platinum: Has recovered back to the midpoint of the downward channel it was in previously. I haven't predicted that this upward move is the beginning of a new upward trend. The Yen is still weak, and demand could be weak due to the instability in Japan.

Palladium: Also has rallied back to the mid-point of the channel. It doesn't look particularly strong.

Gold: Yes gold! The steady upward movement seems to be following the trend line I defined last week. It certainly has broken out of the steep downward channel with conviction. Ironically, the reason I drew this upward trendline so early is because the Asian currencies had strengthened vs. the US$. I saw this as a good sign. However, this week the Asian currencies lost all they had gained last week and then some. This is extremely bearish for gold. With the rally in gold, the "world gold price" is now above its level at the beginning of 1996. For the last two years, whenever it was at or near this level, it soon dropped back. So unless something has dramatically changed, either the Asian currencies must rally soon, or gold will drop back to new lows. I'll post the Gold vs. Currencies chart next.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:32 - ID#364147)
Steve Puetz
Good one Steve and a Merry Christmas to YOU!!!!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:33 - ID#344290)
@ Emerald Hieghts
My friend you have the wrong take on the rejoicing at a crash for me. I fervently talk to my own brother and other good friends about preparing for a catastrophe that may occur - they listen but they don't hear. They think that I'm kinda "loopy" or something. I and others on this board have a major part of our assets in PM investments and sure we'd like them to go up, and we would celebrate our good fortune - who wouldn't? I guess it's a bit like Noah must have felt. Perhaps you can suggest an alternative approach that may be more noble.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:35 - ID#215208)
Here is the Gold vs. Currencies chart. Note the almost vertical rise in the world gold price. This is due to gold rallying while the average currency of gold buyers is taking a dive.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:35 - ID#57232)
Canada is Booming! No freak ElNino storms yet?
Selby: I think Wall Street needs to look at Canada! Looks better than the US right now, according to Statistics Canada.

By the way -- where can I get access to historical Canadian gold stock prices? The FT index of gold and silver stocks can be traced back to the great depression -- but so far all I have been able to to is copy microfiches of monthly prices at the Toronto public library. Daily prices must be available somewhere!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:38 - ID#364147)
DJ.........and can't get much farther to the East than me
How bout the East Coast of Nova Scotia ( got no family and listening to CNBC ) SICK...EH! But before ya feel too damn sorry for me I'm heading over to neighbor Eddie's place in a bit too see if we can get into the holiday 'spirits'.....

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:40 - ID#57232)
Off to be with the family - and to see if spouse feels better.
Vit C looks like it helps the muscle pains of the flu -- Linus Pauling where are you?

Merry XMas!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:41 - ID#364147) crusty old fart
Merry Christmas duuuude!!!!!!!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:49 - ID#215208)
Oh yes, Canada too!
Ted - My regards to Eddie. This might be a good time to try some of that Vodka that John Disney and Oris have been discussing. For me, I'm willing to risk investing in gold, but haven't the courage to try those recipes. :- )

P.S. I love the Maine coast. However, too far from the exended family, too liberal, and too many taxes. ( Might seem down right conservative to you, coming from Cape Breton ) . Wish we had some of that low-bank granite coastline out here, with the deep fiords that discourage traffic. Nothing but sandy bluffs that have a tendency to slide when they get soggy. Yes there are the San Juans, but these are quite touristy, and anything but cheap. Not your style, and probably not mine.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:55 - ID#287207)
It's an ill wind....
JTF: Can't tell you about the historical figures you want. Never looked myself. So far el nino seems to be responsible for warm weather in the Toronto area. Buffalo about 40 air miles south has started into its major snow fall but we are told to expect a warmer maybe snowier winter and to save about $300 on heating the house and maybe $200 on better gas milage. This isn't going to help TransCanada Pipelines or Esso but I'm sure they will get it back.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:58 - ID#315256)
@ Silver...YES!
Merry Christmas to all, and SIlver/Platinum have added to our merriment a bit! ( Though family is the TRUE Gold here at our house... )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 16:59 - ID#364147)
Merry Christmas DJ.....................................and You too NOVICE+LIZ
Maine is my style DJ.....NOVICE: I just caught YOU lurking on this site...Christmas EVE yet!!....Hope you and Liz have a nice evening and me + Eddie will drink a few dozen egg-nogs in your honor!!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 17:01 - ID#364147)
Merry Christmas bro!!! Off ta eat my 'traditional' ( ? ) dinner of Mac+ cheese~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Wed Dec 24 1997 17:09 - ID#318123)
Why was'nt Christ born in Alberta? Could'nt find 3 wise men of the East!!

"Merry Christmas Everyone" may you and your families enjoy this joyous time of the year and please drive to arrive alive!! Catch you on the rebound...

(Wed Dec 24 1997 17:10 - ID#26793)
@Reality Check Time
On September 3, 1929 the Dow was 381. Gold was at 20.67. The Dow/Gold Ratio was 18.43 ounces.

On December 9, 1997 the Dow/Gold Ratio reached 28.64 ounces intraday. Converting that back to gold at $20.67 we reach a 1929 Dow equivalent of 591.98

Sixty-eight years of work, the invention of TV, transistors, computers, satellites, going to the moon etc. and all the businesses of America have appreciated only 55% in real money terms.

Ten years ago, before the 1987 crash, the Dow/Gold Ratio was only 5. Converting that back to gold at $20.67 we reach a 1929 Dow equivalent of 103.35. The cancer of the inflation tax has been eating away at America.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 17:11 - ID#344308)
cnbc fixing to do a special on silver

(Wed Dec 24 1997 17:22 - ID#250251)
JTF Byproduct silver
JTF: Most pure silver mines have costs of production significantly above $5/oz, byproduct silver and drawing down the inventory has hiether to been the key to maintaining the very low silver price. With the current lower demand for base metals, notably copper, byproduct silver which is considered free by copper producers will be no longer be available to the market in such abundance. IMHO, if demand for silver from India is not reduced significantly by the recent price increase then further prices increases will occur until pure silver mines are able to gear up to meet the demand. i.e. Prices must rise or demand must fall.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 24 1997 17:26 - ID#287367)
@ All
Great long term charts ( stocks, bonds, gold, etc. ) and analysis at

(Wed Dec 24 1997 17:29 - ID#368250)
Bema Gold
Bob ID # 25883,

If you have information available that would help me in forming my own opinion, I would very much appreciate your response either by post to this board or e-mail. My address is I am seriously considering increasing my position, and would like to know why you feel so negative on BEMA. Thanks.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 17:35 - ID#254137)

(Wed Dec 24 1997 17:41 - ID#23195)
What are the qualities of a good goldminer???
1}HE SHOULD NOW WHEN TO BE SILENT ( silence is gold---talk is silver )
this way others want find his secret places. ( or indexes.... )
2HE SHOULD BE CONSISTENT ( as any investor ) If he changes his mind every
other minut as to were to dig ( invest ) ,he will never make money.
3}HE SHOULD BE WELL EDUCATED :If someone knocks on his door, he has the right not to let him in.But as to invite someone and then kick him out...

The only reason this goldminer came to this site was to gain recent information concearning diggingoperations .Obtaining and studying annual reports was no problem .Options does not interest him considering the speculationfactor ( His knowledge is also limited in that area )
He seems d'ailleurs in total contradiction with optiontraders because according to him gold will continue to rise till june with a little slow down in first trimester 98.

So this is a definite good-bye,as Piaf said no regrets ( it will also prevent people from taking difficult decisions.............

(Wed Dec 24 1997 17:42 - ID#254137)
Seasons Greetings to all posters. Special thanks to Bart Kitco for this sight. I stand in awe of many of the posters at this sight. Now back to the shadows to listen and learn. Best for the new year.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 17:51 - ID#250251)
CNBC Silver expo
Crystal Ball : IMHO CNBC experts opinions on the cause of the rise in silvers price where way off the mark. Investment demand has nothing to do with the physical draw down in Comex stocks, the draw down rate has been steadily increasing for the past 10 years faster than the increase in supply, this is not a sudden increase in demand sparked by resurgent investor interest. IMHO Silver is dissappearing as the result of world demand consistantly out striping world supply. The sudden increase in price the last few days may be the final market recognition of this basic underlying condition.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:12 - ID#348129)
@Get your WALLETS out!
IMF, G-7 to speed up loans for South Korea
President makes reform pledge

December 24, 1997
Web posted at: 12:48 p.m. EST ( 1748 GMT )

SEOUL, South Korea ( CNN ) -- The International Monetary Fund and the Group of Seven major industrialized nations ( G-7 ) would give South Korea $10 billion in emergency loans by January to help the country's crisis-ridden economy, Finance Minister Lim Chang-yuell said Thursday.

The loan would be in addition to the $14 billion already given under the IMF's record $57 billion bailout package for South Korea, which used to be the world's 11th largest economy before hitting stormy economic waters due to bad loans and a weakening currency.

Originally, the loans were scheduled to be spread out over next year.

In return, South Korea agreed to speed up opening its capital markets and to scrap its ceiling on interest rates, Lim said.

"The lending, along with anticipated cooperation from foreign banks in rolling over their loans, will greatly help ease our foreign currency crisis," the finance minister said.

The $57 billion package breaks down to $21 billion from the IMF, $10 billion from the World Bank and $4 billion from the Asian Development Bank.

The United States, Japan and five other G-7 member countries committed a total of $22 billion as a "second line of defense" in case the main package is not enough.

So far, South Korea has received $9 billion from the IMF, $3 billion from the World Bank and $2 billion from the Asian Development Bank.

The World Bank disbursed its $3 billion loan on Wednesday, earlier than expected.

A senior U.S. diplomat said in Seoul that the money could be used immediately to repay short-term obligations of South Korean banks.

The South Korean finance ministry has estimated short-term debts in December at between $14 billion and $15 billion, with another $15 billion due in January.

The nation's currency has lost more than half of its value against the U.S. dollar this year because of the financial turmoil, and companies have been struggling to find the necessary cash to pay back short-term debts.

The country's stock market has also taken a major hit during the crisis, which snowballed to several Asian nations.

This week's stock selloff came after the Standard and Poor's rating agency downgraded South Korea's government debt into the "junk" bond category -- the same status as such developing nations as the Dominican Republic.

On Wednesday, President-elect Kim Dae-jung pledged to implement deeper economic reforms, saying the country would lift all remaining controls on foreign exchange capital flows and interest rates.

At a meeting with business leaders, Kim also called on family-controlled conglomerates to shed money-losing subsidiaries.

"Companies must freeze or slash wages. If that proves not enough, layoffs will be inevitable," he said.

The urgency of the crisis was highlighted when four automakers were forced to temporarily shut down their assembly lines on Wednesday because Mando Machinery -- which is seeking court receivership because it defaulted this month on huge bills -- stopped production of such car components as brakes, steering components, electrical parts and air conditioners.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:16 - ID#258129)
Merry XMas and Happy New Year to all

(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:16 - ID#398105)
JTF and Silver............
G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

Silver may occur in the folowing geological environments: tin skarns, porphyry copper, porphyry copper skarns, copper skarns, zinc lead skarns, polymetallic replacements, manganese replacements, porphyry tin, tin polymetallic veins, porphyry copper gold, porphyry copper molybdenum, porphyry molyybdenum low fluorine, volcanic hosted copper arsenic antimony, gold silver telluride veins, polymetallic veins, basaltic copper, Cyprus massive sulphide, Besshi massive sulphide, Blackbird cobalt copper, hot spring gold silver, Creede epithermal veins, Comstock epithermal veins, epithermal quartz alunite gold, epithermal manganese, carbonate hosted gold silver, Kuroko massive sulphide, Olympic Dam copper uranium gold, sandstone hosted lead zinc, sediment hosted copper, sedimentary exhalative zinc lead, Kipushi copper lead zinc, low sulphide gold quartz veins, Homestake BIF gold, placer gold platinoids, unconformity uranium gold PGE, faults within ultramafic complexes.

AS you can see silver occurs in a number of geological environments, mostly combined with other elements. The sediment hosted lead zinc occurances do produce with an average grade of 30 g/t ie as a by product.
The geological enviroment of real interest is the volcanogenic silver-gold association, within the Carlin type and back arc-island arc setting - again essentially as a by product. Last but not least is silver associated with faults within ultramafic complxes. An example is the Munni Munni complex in Western Australia, withreported average grades of 3% ( very high grade ) silver.

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:20 - ID#26793)
2 new Japanese bank downgrades; US bank bonds weaker on Asia exposure.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:24 - ID#28585)
Gentlemen...the explosion in the silver price augurs an even greater explosion in the gold price...provided that proper perceptions are provided to the market by the gold mining industry. The central banks can sell all the gold they want...but if the gold miners make powerful prominent advertisements concerning supply consolidation and cutbacks, then I think they will scare the shorts, thereby enhancing the probability of a short squeeze. Moreover, the gold producers' consolidated actions will probably inspire the central banks to consolidate their own efforts to maximize the gold price. Ultimately, it is not in central banks interests to sell gold at less than optimum prices.

My own guess is that, sometime in the middle part of '98, it is a virtual certainty that Switzerland will renounce their intentions to hold a national referendum to sell half their reserves. A nation that proved its duplicity in WWII is smart enough to know that there is absolutely no sense in advertising huge gold sales IN ADVANCE of such sales. It is more than probable that they are accumulating gold at such current "cheap" prices.

If at the same time, the world is aware of significant reduction in gold exploration and development along with gold producer consolidation, then I feel certain $500 gold will prove a significant undervaluation of gold's ultimate destiny in '98.

In this game of perception, the goldbugs have been sadly negligent relative to the Dow Bulls and New Paradigmists on Wall Street. Again, I reiterate: the monies saved in closing one gold mine could be put to better use in propagandizing pro-gold forces.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:25 - ID#26793)
Swiss unions march in protest over mergers, job cuts.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:30 - ID#398105)
Werner and Goldminers - AND GEOLOGISTS

G'Day From Kalgoorlie,

Those who are not tuned into the industry should be aware that one must DISCRIMINATE between Goldminers ( Engineers ) and those who are really important, the GEOLOGISTS.

Engineers wear high heels, whilst Geologists realize that postture is important, and always pretent that they have got a broomstick up their ....

Aye Haggis

(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:31 - ID#26793)
Sale of U.S. Treasuries by Japanese confirmed

Bill Buckler
(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:33 - ID#257234)
$A - $US Gold Comparison
Merry Christmas. I have just updated the $A/$US Gold comparison page at my website

The $A Gold chart lead indicator has worked perfectly again, with the $A Gold P&F chart enjoying its best upmove in two years. The base formation on this chart is excellent, much better than the P&F chart of $US Gold. The chart which shows when the $A "signal" was originally given ( on Dec. 16 ) is at

$US Gold has now been below $US 300 for a month, its longest sojourn below that level since it first broke above it in July 1979. By way of comparison, in 1982, Gold spent one day below $US 300 - in 1985, it spent about three weeks below that level.

Also, in both 1982 and 1985, there were explosive upmoves which brought

Gold back above $US 300 -and kept it there. So far this time, Gold has been rising gradually, on small volume and on persistently lessening open interest.

Obviously, Gold is going to have to get back above the $US 300 level and stay there for this move to have the potential to be the start of something BIG. I would go further. If Gold turns down below $US 300, it would be bad news. $US Gold hasn't done that in almost 20 years.

Personally, I am treating the gap between $US 280 and $US 300 as a potential trading range. I can only reiterate here what I say on my Gold commentary page "Gold is a POLITICAL metal". I have seen only one legitimate "buy signal" on $US Gold since the beginning of 1996. that was in late September, when it climbed into the high $US 330s. That move pushed the P&F chart ABOVE its downtrend. It didn't stay there and the "buy signal" was aborted. This may be the start of the big move, but there is no confirmation of that yet.

That's all from me, it is Christmas Day here, after all. Merry Christmas to all, and especially to Bart, who makes this whole site possible.

Bill Buckler
(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:38 - ID#257234)
$A $US Gold Comparison - and Merry Christmas
Merry Christmas. I have just updated the $A/$US Gold comparison page at my website. It's looking more and more healthy.

The URL is

The $A Gold chart lead indicator has worked perfectly again, with the $A Gold P&F chart enjoying its best upmove in two years. The base formation on this chart is excellent, much better than the P&F chart of $US Gold.

$US Gold has now been below $US 300 for a month, its longest sojourn below that level since it first broke above it in July 1979. By way of comparison, in 1982, Gold spent one day below $US 300 - in 1985, it spent about three weeks below that level.

Also, in both 1982 and 1985, there were explosive upmoves which brought Gold back above $US 300 -and kept it there. So far this time, Gold has been rising gradually, on small volume and on persistently lessening open interest.

Obviously, Gold is going to have to get back above the $US 300 level and stay there for this move to have the potential to be the start of something BIG. I would go further. If Gold turns down below $US 300, it would be bad news. $US Gold hasn't done that in almost 20 years.

Personally, I am treating the gap between $US 280 and $US 300 as a potential trading range. I can only reiterate here what I say on my Gold commentary page "Gold is a POLITICAL metal".

I have seen only one legitimate "buy signal" on $US Gold since the beginning of 1996. that was in late September, when it climbed into the high $US 330s. That move pushed the P&F chart ABOVE its downtrend. It didn't stay there and the "buy signal" was aborted. This may be the start of the big move,but there is no confirmation of that yet.

That's all from me, it is Christmas Day here, after all. Merry Christmas to all, and especially to Bart, who makes this whole site possible.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:38 - ID#398105)

G'Day from Kalgoorlie,

Correct me if I am wrong. Given that the gold futures/derivative market has been playing "silly buggers" and created a possible 8 000 tonne vacuum of physical gold, and given that hopefully the "shorts" will be shaken out faurly soonish, this would tend to suggest that unless the CB sell additional gold into the market, which they may not do due to the emerging currency problems, would this suggest that it may be a period of 2 years before such a "short" position on gold could be achieved again - if not longer. That is, has the game gone full circle, and it is now time to make money from gold on its upside. A GOLD BULL MARKET.

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:45 - ID#398105)
Bill Buckler...........

G"Day from Kalgoorlie.

I had a chat with two mates yesterday, one in Kalgoorlie the other in Manila. The basic comments were that "yes the US gold price is a problem, we sell in US$ and bring the money back in in the local currencies".

The local gold producers do get a bit of "hay fever" now and again, but not the flu!

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:54 - ID#364147)
The party is @ Eddie's..........................keeper of the flame!!!!
Through the woods to Eddie's house we go~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~bbMl...EB: Where the HELL are YOU? ) ....

(Wed Dec 24 1997 18:55 - ID#270224)
Pacific Northwest Dave - Will silver go doen?
Not a chance. Silver is a by-product of gold and copper mining. If a company can't make money on its copper or gold due to high production costs they won't produce silver either. This is true bull market built around the real commercial value of silver. Investment fever will only make it more scarce. Silver is really cheap even now. Don't be surpeised if it goes $10 US/troy oz in the next 3 months.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 19:11 - ID#224149)
Tolerant1-14:07 Post-I now understand the hell of thought.Merry Xmas

(Wed Dec 24 1997 19:18 - ID#398105)

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

So, we lack savvy?!

To stop you dreaming, if you need a bit of a lift, rub some Tiger Balm in areas of your body where you would not normally do so. This will cause screaming, which will help to keep awake, and stop you dreaming.

If you ever come to Australia, try and experiment with the social fabric. Go into a footie club end of season celebration and shout - "You are all POOFTERS!" With the exception of Sydney of course.

Merry Xmas.

Aye Haggis

(Wed Dec 24 1997 19:22 - ID#348129)
@United Gold Miners Association
farfel: You are on the right track. The main line of defense to this orgy of CB selling/leasing and shorting, should be a united front of Gold producers, after all it's their jobs on the line.
In my opinion, the World Gold Council is a lame organization, and has done nothing to defend or promote Gold.
Im not saying we need a DEBEERS type cartel to control the price ( although that works great for the diamond market ) , but some type of organized control of supply would basically put the shorts out of business.
The mere creation of this body would probably send the POG back to near 400. overnight, as demand/supply realities become clear, and short covering of the 8000 or more tonnes pressure the supply.

GOLD MINERS GET YOUR ACT TOGETHER, its in your best interest..

(Wed Dec 24 1997 19:29 - ID#426220)

(Wed Dec 24 1997 19:34 - ID#398105)


Come to think of it, why don't all the "fleeing" Americans stay where they are!! Just by a gun, and move to the Bronx!!

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 24 1997 19:37 - ID#398105)


Don't these Japanese take any time off! All that hard work, look where it has got them?!

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 24 1997 19:45 - ID#200163)
Merry Christmas to All Kitcoites - Your the GREATEST!

The Japanese are awesome. The US better watch out.

Wednesday December 24, 6:56 pm Eastern Time

Japan Dec first 10 days trade surplus up 1,655.1 %
TOKYO, Dec 25 ( Reuters ) - Japan's customs-cleared trade surplus rose
1,655.1 percent to 107.29 billion yen in the first 10 days of December
compared with a revised surplus of 6.11 billion yen in the same period a
year earlier, the Finance Ministry said on Thursday.
Free-on-board ( FOB ) exports rose 25.1 percent from a year earlier to
1.486 trillion yen, while cost, insurance and freight ( CIF ) imports rose
16.6 percent to 1.379 trillion yen.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 19:46 - ID#345268)
@ Farfel
Sir, in response to your 18:24 post I am in full agreement. However, I doubt that central banks are buying at this point due to the low level of volume in this kind of market.

Even if some gold reaches their hands ( Swiss banks ) , the amount is probably small to be considered as serious buying.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 19:48 - ID#227238)
Ted and All the unwashed Goldbugs.
As is my habit, I am a day late and generally a dollar short but it does not detract from my strong desire to wish one and all - Goldbugs all - the very best of the Holiday Season. May 1998 see each of us thoroughly scrubbed, perfumed...... and able to afford our own boots and horse. ... And "God bless us, ... everyone." ( With apologies to Dickens )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 19:49 - ID#22650)
Bravo, JTF
Bravo JTF on your 15:55 post. I concur in that we really do need to bust the cycle. But the sage that said "those who refuse to heed the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them" did not become famous because he was wrong, but because he was right. We must strive to learn from these expensive lessons because it is the right thing to do, but realistically I know that the cycle will repeat. It is part of the era we are in. Peace, prosperity and good health to all. We are facing a very interesting future.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 19:56 - ID#398105)


Come to think of it, why don't all the "fleeing" Americans stay where they are!! Just buy a gun, and move to the Bronx!!

Aye, Haggis

PH in LA
(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:02 - ID#225408)
To: A.Goose
I always thought FOB meant FREIGHT ON BOARD rather than your interpretation "FREE" ON BOARD. My understanding has been that it basically refers to the invoiced value of the merchandize which would not include shipping charges or customs duties etc. Accordingly, the higher value for December 97 versus the same period one year ago would in part be a reflection of a weaker yen.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:04 - ID#398105)
Silver and Platinum


I have just looked at the silver and platinum graphs. Wow.... looking good.

I will post tomorrow what I think are the "best" silver and platinum plays in Aussie. At this time, there are no platinum mines in Aussie, only by-products from Kambalda, but here is good potential.

Aye, Haggis

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:11 - ID#57232)
Haggis -- I'm impressed!
I never get that much info from my brother in law -- and he's a geologist who worked for Dennison mines before the collapse. May have had something to do with the construction of that massive guilded Church a few miles north of Toronto. Or did the guiding light of Dennison just fail to leave someone to carry the torch? That Church was blessed by the Pope, but is still unoccupied. Am I right that what you are saying is that volcanogenic gold-silver mines are the best pure silver sources, with silver in ultramafic complexes such as MunniMunni good altermatives? Just how much of current silver production is in this form? Perhaps that will give us some idea just how high silver will go up before India sells, or more expensive production sets in.

I really do appreciate your posts -- hope you don't mind the questions. Do you know werner? Precious metal miner too, I think. Hope we as a group didn't run him off. Most of us kitcoites are long term investor types, not options traders. Few real miners/geologists except you and a few others. Gold bugs are a strange but interesting group aren't they?

Emerald Heights
(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:13 - ID#227311)
Spud Master
You may be corrent in that my statements were "ILL INFORMED". I would
not be reading this group if I were not seeking enlightenment both pro
and con. If one accepts that the bubble will burst soon what could be done now to stop it? Perhaps education would at least prepare us. But I remember back in 1987 when all warned of the coming collapse and nothing happened except that people who took the contrarian view and invested heavy in the market made a lot of money. Could it be that we have heard the wolf cry to many times and now that he is here we will not be paying attention? In 87 I received strategic investments and told all my friends about it. Well my friend is now very wealthy by doing just the opposite.
Will try and engage brain in future, appreciate your post.
By the way I really did like Sir William Rees-Moog book. Regards:EH

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:17 - ID#372235)
Happy Holidays

Just wanted to wish everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy Chanukah, Happy Kwanza, and a Blessed and Holy Ramadan.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:20 - ID#426220)
Haggis__A: While you researching Aussie platinum plays, you might look at Delta Gold, which owns producing platinum mines in Zimbabwe.

Emerald Heights
(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:22 - ID#227311)
It seems I have hit a nerve on this board with my "rejoicing" comment
,SM is really taking me to task as he should ( good food for thought ) . I should say that I also have PM investments & expending daily. I share this site info with a good friend that has made tons in the mutual market, we talk about a crash & he keeps dumping more in at every dip like the"hustlers of WS keep saying by now its cheap" I control a good amount of blue chips and I am seriously thinking about a 100% pull out,tax consequence is concern. To address your question of "alternative approach more noble" I don't know any, perhaps SM is correct...tell those who will listen and hope they do. If only people with gold are left after the crash then I would hope that they will be the ones to rebuild in good faith. Perhaps Mrs.Shelton's call for a new Bretton woods is the answer, perhaps after she will be taken more serious. I liked her book as I did Sir William Rees-Mogg books, although admittedly a little above my head.
Regards; EH

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:24 - ID#411259)

Merry Christmas to all and good trading in 1998...................

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:26 - ID#426220)

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:27 - ID#26793)
China Vice Premier says no devaluation while he is in office (said at retirement party?)

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:29 - ID#57232)
Cycles part of the human condition for some time to come!
pagoda: Just saw your post. I agree with you that we have not succeeded in breaking any of our human cycles, and will not in the near future. I also agree with you that we all need to be aware of as much history as we can, because without knowing the cycles, we will allways blindly succumb to them. I am amused by some of our "modern" economists who believe that they have eliminated the business cycle by artfully controlling the money supply. The problem with this is that the Kondratiev wave -- a grandaddy of business cycles if there ever was one - has to do with the shift from "hard" assets to "paper/debt" assets. Control of the money supply does not prevent this cycle from occurring -- it just "damps" it out for a while. Its like using aspirin for a cold. Makes you feel better, but the underlying cause of the illness is still there! Good thing AG knows this. Just think what might happen when he retires! If I were he, I would be thinking about retirement after this current currency crisis ends. My job is challenging -- but his is beyond comprehension.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:29 - ID#31876)
From Bob Bruska (Nikko Securities) ...
Speaking of the Asian contagion, made comparison to a centipede.."The other shoe just keeps on falling."

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:32 - ID#22956)
Happy Holidays
To ALL goldbugs!!! EVERYWHERE in the world.....

Meilleurs Voeux...Felices Fiestas...Frohe Festtage........etc, etc,.....that's all I know in other Season's Greetings ..............

AWAY....!!!!$$!! ho ho ho ~~~~~~~~~~ ;- ) }} ( santa grinnin' )


hey Ted~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~merry-xmas dude.....go heavy on the nog...ohmy!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:36 - ID#57232)
Retirement party?
Donald: The communists often have creative ways to "retire" their leaders if there is a "shred" of associated disgrace. I think they just executed a few Chinese for misuse of government funds. Wonder what it would be like if the same practice was used here?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:38 - ID#26793)
Russia deploys newest generation ICBM nuclear weapon; aimed where?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:40 - ID#26793)
I was just having a little fun with the Vice Premier. Hope you have a nice holiday.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:45 - ID#26793)
Korea kind of reminds me of a Laurel & Hardy movie. The audience sees the next disaster long before Stan and Ollie have the slightest clue.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 20:49 - ID#339274)
to all
Merry Christmas and a Happy?osperous New Year.Today Platinum and
Palladium came into the fold all systems are on go.Could be a
rock&roll New Year seeing the performance of silver.Happy trading : )

(Wed Dec 24 1997 21:02 - ID#26793)
Oh Yeah? This week alone there were millions fewer customers who can afford 'em.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 21:20 - ID#31876)
You're right, Donald...
Then when they raised the price of admission from 9 cents to 12 cents,
I thought that inflation had really arrived. I laugh whenever I think
about this too...

(Wed Dec 24 1997 21:20 - ID#256201)
@ ,Ph in L.A.
In 1950 before joining the US Army I was employed by MASSCO ( mine and smelter supply co. ) in Denver. It was there I learned that FOB did indeed mean Free on Board. That signifies that the merchandise is yours and the bill for shipping is yours also.
The shipper's agreement was to furnish the desired item. He put it on board so the hauler could transport at your expense. No change up to today far as I know!

(Wed Dec 24 1997 21:25 - ID#286199)
Merry Christmas Goldbugs and Lurkers

(Wed Dec 24 1997 21:31 - ID#225283)
Merry Christmas to all...and to all a goodnight

(Wed Dec 24 1997 21:32 - ID#252150)
Selby, Your 11:33 RE our Canadian deficit... Right on!
Is'nt it amazing how some of the posters here come up with such wild unsubstantiated bs. One individual in particular loves to compare us with Mexico. Is it too difficult for them to understand that some speculators, hedge funds etc are taking the opportunity to speculate against a vulnerable Cdn CB? Some of them sqander their credibility by displaying for all their ignorance & zenophobia.

Merry Christmas, Seasons greetings & Happy Chanukah. I hope that covers everybody & you all prosper in 1998.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 22:16 - ID#31876)
Military pay during Korean war...
For defending South Korea during the early 50's, my memory is a little
fuzzy, but here's how I remember the Uniform Military Pay Code...

Pvt. E-1 $42.00 per month
Pvt. E-2 $67.00 " "
Cpl. E-3 $87.00 " "
Buck Sgt. $127.00 " "

I wonder how much my taxes will go up to pay for the latest????

(Wed Dec 24 1997 22:28 - ID#31868)
I would respectfully and gladly give my life to guard and protect you so that you may live longer and continue to think. You are that which can lead this humanity to a better existence.

You have a friend in me. My water runs deep and you have struck the chord which is correct, lead and I shall follow out of pure respect.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 22:30 - ID#200163)
Kitco doesn't seem to be updating tonight.
I am running on my portable from a remote site.

Would someone please post some of the sites that I can get gold updates on.

Thanks in advance

(Wed Dec 24 1997 22:40 - ID#371247)
We just returned from a night out at Garduno's, an Albuquerque Mexican Food Resteraunt with Mexican food ( hot enough to scorch the scales off a lizzard ) , mariarchi band and Santa with all my kids and two of the three grandkids. Despite my losses in the market this past year its a good life. Tonight confirmed that. Gold and silver are ready to resume their proper seats at the head of the class and paper is ready to assume the dunce chair. I look for a good year in 1998 for us metalmongers. Merry Christmas to all you fine folks at this site. Continue to share your wisdom as we together observe history unfolding like a dark glass through which we only see dimly.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 22:50 - ID#200163)
Date: Wed Dec 24 1997 19:29

Thanks I looked back and saw your post with the gold sites.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 23:10 - ID#254201)
Silver Production
JTF- Your analysis of silver as a"sweetner" in base metal production is dead on. However, the concept of less production of these metals during economic slowdowns IMHO is not what happens. Base metals typically come from very, very large operations that have a great deal of momentum, i.e. debt load and sheer complexity. You cannot turn these things off with a switch. They do not stop or markedly reduce production in response to economic downturns. They may stockpile their particular prime product but the debt demon has to be fed. Losing a portion of your ROI is preferable to losing it all.

As to your second question, if there is enough proven primary silver reserves to depress silver prices through increased supply, the short term answer is, who cares? Even if they exist the lead time to bring one of these possible reserves on line is several years. Haggis could better answer whether the reserves exist but I belive they do not.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 23:12 - ID#344308)

i must correct not only your spelling ( zenophobia?xenophobia! ) ---
but also your conception of the status the canadian
fiscal policies have had relative to the mexican
policies, and their current standings....

why is the c$ weak? you alluded to the speculators taking advantange
of the weak c$.....that is the result, what was the cause?
it is not the fault of the currency speculators that the c$ is weak...
you better get a grip on reality and realize canada, mexico, and the
us are in deep doo-doo.....only 1 problem, canada leads the pack....
it is a fact......

look at the facts, play like you are a vulcan, and logically conclude
that personal sentiment cannot carry the day.....canada is great--aye--
her political agenda has cost her the wealth of a generation, and the
sweat of another.....

merry christmas--to all non-sleepwalkers, and to all, a goodnight...

(Wed Dec 24 1997 23:19 - ID#424187)
1997 Was A Disaster PRAY FOR 1998
Lets all pray the GOLD GODS run wild in 1998.Far east is holding ,we might break out of 300.00 before end of year.

(Wed Dec 24 1997 23:33 - ID#373403)
Gold Mutual Funds
I was just looking over 10 year $10,000 investment return charts of Fidelity Select Precious Metals and Select American Gold. I am used to buying physical but my wifes IRA allows for either of these two as investment alternatives so I was considering switching to them. The returns are HORRENDOUS over 10 years. The swings were not as wild as I had been led to expect from this discussion board and a $10,000 investment made in 1987 would be worth about $10,000 today. It would seem that R&D reinvestment and dividends should have produced a little more return over the long run.

Maybe I would be better off finding a fund which shorts the market and keep buying physical. Does anyone know of such a Fidelity fund?

(Wed Dec 24 1997 23:41 - ID#364147)
Merry Christmas bro....

(Wed Dec 24 1997 23:42 - ID#364147)
Sounds like my kind of food....Merry Christmas!