LGB-- wouldn't your stats stand up better to analysis if you didn't take the top price of a bubble ( gold in 1980 ) for your comparison?? Better to average your prices for real estate and precious over a decade or two to get a better comparison. Also pick somewhere other than Silicon Valley. I can remember houses getting to ridiculous prices and then crashing as well. You are comparing the top of one bubble with the bottom of another ( Silicon Valley R.E. ) . BTW--congrats on the new streamlined version of LGB. Your comments on this site much appreciated.

SDRer_A: I never shave over the holidays. a va?

Good night everyone -- how about a New Years resolution for Kitco posters! I have a hint -- something to do with civility/humility,etc!

Old Mc DONALD had a farm, eeyieeyioooo. And on this farm he had some Aussie cricketers. eeyieeyiooooooo. With a wack wack here and a wack wack there, here a wack there a wack everywhere an ouch ouch.... Son of Walt--hope you're not watching this, mate!!!

Your 19:30 seems to indicate that the Chinese started the situation. IMO, as a result of severe Sino overproduction a series of competitive devaluations went out of control after the currency speculators decided their attack. This left the blood suckers the opportunity to take up the productive capacity of SEA at pennies on the buck.
IMHO the Asians will create a vigorous trade amonst themselves and not rely on the blood suckers.
When the ethnic western's see what those bastards have done to the global community in general a gold backed system will again come into effect.

JTF I've been out in the greenhouses. My apologies for my acerbity last night. Regrettably, some names ( Lobang Rampa, Castenada, Heyerdahl and yes Ananda Marga, throw me into paroxysms of salty swearing. Just don't like to see their lies bandied about in sensible discussion.
I shall promise not to change
aurastubbornasamule

and half as smart

LGB2_A, Yes got has been a disasterous investment. But at this point, assuming you were 100% in cash, how would you invest it? Market, bonds, gold stocks, silver etc.

Auracious-- Thor Heyerdahl??? He should be your one and only hero!! How else could the Peruvian indians have colonized Aotearoa, mate??? You don't believe those stories about Polynesians being the first inhabitants, do you?? ( have I got the right Heyerdahl, mate?? ) BTW--happy new year to BJ and a big smooch from Oz ( for her, not you!! ) .

To All

The press reports that there were 121 people executed by beheading in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia last year. I believe there were only 60 -70 the year before. That's what I call progress.

The Japanese will jump at ANY chance to scratch in the Saudi sand

pile.

It is more likely 4X the gold needed to buy a similar house now than one in 1980 on a national basis.

LGB2.2_A your Sat Dec 27 1997 23:58 Sure you have pal. You're still welcome here.

Nick@C
I will forward you that table mate. I have scoured the Net Several Times for Jastram, gotta avoid the marine ( s ) , but found nothing, OK the book The Golden Constant 1980. I read it years ago in Wgt library, I have asked a fried to get it, but remember, books on gold are in demand a significant shift in the Library Index.

You have to think about the mentality of those who have pushed up home prices. Maybe Silicon Valley has taken up some of the ounces?
Look at NYC and some of the prices that the brokerage community is paying for their living quarters.

For Nick

Re your comment on bread - Did you ever read Henry Miller's recipe

for making American bread palatable ?? - excellent. Aussie bread was

great in the 1970s but the "fancy" loaves at twice the price were starting to flower ( he he ) in the early 80's. Sorry to hear of the decline. Bread here still good. Give it a few more years -

Here is something interesting, I've been following up the Don's earler posts at
http://newdeal.feri.org/timeline/index.htm
here's what they said about 1933

1933
NY Giants Defeat Washington Senators in World Series
First drive-in theater opens in Camden, NJ
New magazines hit stands: Newsweek and Esquire

Popular songs:

"Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?"
"It's Only a Paper Moon"
"Stormy Weather"
"The Gold Digger's Song" ( We're in the Money )

@@@@@@

Movies:

"Alice in Wonderland"
"Dinner at Eight"
"Duck Soup"
"King Kong"
"Little Women"

for Nick

If the aussie are up - I show my passport - If not I put it away.

Looks like the rock spiders are only good for the one days not the

tests. Dont seem to have the attention span. Minds seem to wander.

Myrmidon
Either gold is highly deflated in price or real estate is highly inflated in price, or both perhaps??. I own heaps of both as I like shiny stuff and dirt. What , in your opinion, would cause ( hypothetically speaking, of course ) the reversal of the above and a return to the 1980 gold/ real estate equivalence. I think it is possible. Real Estate could be in for tough times.

James, nice to see someone else with his eye on the ball of the
Big Game ,instead of looking at the players to see who is down ect...
I agree with you that WORLD is palying the US Economic Game with
US rules, and of course the US$ and THEIR "Weapons of Mass
Deception" and their TRUE Weapons US Military.
I have yet to read on this informed forum about the purpose of US
troops stationed in Japan, S. Korea, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
let's see conincidence or calculated US military occupation.
Japan and Germany #2,and #3 World Economies.
Saudi Arabia Kuwait Etc... World's largest Oil producers.
Some posters have argued that Japan should buy GOLD with their
US$, well how could they without provoking US and TROOPS there.
That is also the reason why France has always spoken out against
the US on behalf of Germany etc.. Degaulle did it in the 70's, that forced
Nixon to close the Gold window, France is doig so now.
The "Confidence" the US$ has and is enjoying at this moment has not
"magically" appeared, it has been built on US Military might, the
only Superpower and their "Weapons of Mass Deception" with US
debt or credit being shoved down everybody's throats. By the way
the word credit from creditus is Latin for "belief" in the US$.
BUT this is about to change, and that is the reason I believe GOLD
is headed much higher. As some of you may recall in the 70's it was
only when IRAN captured the US Hostages, and was appearing to loose
it's tight grip on ME OIL that GOLD really took off. The Russians are getting fed up with IMF ( US ) imposed conditions, The Russsians
are on a very tight leash indeed, and are now backing up Iraq to do
Business there and also owes them big $. The Arabs United in IRAN
and let's not forget the Bombing last year in S. Arabia. Japan and
S. Korea population will get fed up with the IMF ( US ) conditions
I could go on and on but I think you get the "PICTURE".
IMHO it is the disbelief or lack of confidence in the US$, loss of
military prowess ( being tied up by little strings like Gulliver ) and the
eventual demand for return of troops after humiliating "set backs"
that the World trade Game will change knocking the US$ out of its
sole reserve currency status and sending GOLD sky high, after all
why does the World trading system have to be based in US$?
Why not trade in Euros or Yuans or Yen , or GOLDat that point.

Horiuchi is 3rd generation politician, cabinet minister, 67 years
old and, one might rightly suspect, holds the trust of Hashimoto ( sp? ) .

If you had something VERY sensitive to discuss, VERY privately with
the Saudi power elite, let's say....oh...swapping some TBonds for
oil for instance, wouldn't this gentlemen fit the bill rather nicely?
http://www.japantimes.co.jp./special/cab9-97/miti9-97.html

Nick@C, most kind of you, BJ will get her smooch :- )
There are only 3 cultural traits ( i 'member ) possessed by the pre-European contact Maori that clearly are not derived from S.E. Asia to Microneseia to Melanesia to Polynesia Central then North and south, they are
( 1 ) Curly hair ( 2 ) Venereal Disease ( 3 ) Sweet Potato.

Otherwise Thor Heyerdahl's KonTiki Expedition is a great display of science attempting to prove a theory, rather than, as it should, attempt to disprove a theory. You probably did not know this, nor perhaps wished to know it, but in the 1930's there was a theory doing the rounds that Maori were the Lost Tribe of Israel. JTF, sir, please take notes, based on the astounding observation that many Maori words were IDENTICAL in Egyptian. The only one I committed to memory was "Ra" that means "Sun" in both languishes. Now where was I? Oh yes.
And an Indigenous Church The Ratana church was founded based on this ( the church is still extant ) .
Some years of statistics gathering later, linguists announced that one can expect about 6% of words to be identical in UNRELATED languages. Related languages have much higher incidences.

There is a lesson here for all of us. Especially those involved in the rune-casting chart business, who have been very quiet lately ( come back y'all ) , It is very easy to find data to fit our theories. The greatest theories are the ones that contain the Null Hypothesis.

Beautiful theories are often destroyed by nakedly brutal facts.

callthedoctaurator

I can't produce any fancy graphs but prior to 1930 and post 1980 the standard wage for a man working in a mine up here has been 1/2 an ounce of gold a day. I can still get a skilled crew for that wage although we are bouncing off the low end.

You also have to consider that the world has been on a paper currency standard since NIXON closed the gold window.
Think about the amount that US debt has increased since and what will occur when that has to come due.
It will make the Asian situation look like like kid stuff.

G'day J.D. What would a decent 4 br house in S.A. ( J'burg ) cost as compared to Melbourne for example. Comparable?? Bread--I go to the delis to get something edible. Woolworths bread I give to the dogs!! White, denatured flour, water and heaps of air. And they actually sell the stuff!! Don't want to compare gold with bread in 1900 vs 1997--one has changed dramatically!!!

JD-- what is the average ( better off ) S.A.ans attitude to gold? Do they put some away?? Is it treated as just a commodity for export?? Is there an "It'll buy me out of trouble, gov't can't confiscate what they don't know about" mentality???

The only reversal I see in gold is if the public started buying it. Unless we see 30 million ozs yearly demand from the public, I don't think that gold will break the $420 level.

A smart guy said it many times in this board: "CHANGE THE PERCEPTION". I see cigar magazines advertizing $35 cigars which Mr. public buys, yet if you try ro sell 6 ozs of silver to your neighbor he will laugh at you.

Gold is poorly promoted in the national level, and this must change. Even the WSJ ads on gold are getting smaller. The miners have to do some of the promoting, otherwise they will be struggling for survival too!

The coin shops appear to the public as pawn shops. This must change too!
The "barbaric" metal must be renamed to the "king of metals".

Myrmidion-Cigars are not Gold

Myrmidon: Barbaric or Barbarous ( which is what he actually said ) , it is time that saying went to the barbers

Bababababaramaurator

I know cigars are not gold. But like cigars are many other items that Mr. public buys without inhibition and yet when I talk to many people about gold they tell me "IT IS TOO EXPENSIVE"!!!!

That is why I say that gold is poorly promoted.

G'day Producer. What kind of gold mine is yours?? Quartz veins, alluvial?? How many g/ton?? What price break-even?? We need some coal-face education here, mate.

Hi Nick, I hope the holidays are treating you well. I own and operate an alluvial mine. Grams per ton would be very misleading as it varies widely and the real cost is stripping the over burden to get to the money. Shallow ground can be low grade because it is cheaper to mine. Break even is around 1.50 to 2.00 a cubic yard. .76yd3 to a Cubic meter.

To all: Lets face it, the CBs have 1/4 of the world's gold and it is unlikely for them to be buying more from the open market. So what do we do? Wait for the CBs to upvalue their gold? This may not happen in our lifetime.

Promote it to the public, and unless this happens don't expect a significant move from gold chains... or industrial use.

The stock market moved because the public jumped into it. Real estate moved because the public perceived it as an investment. The same must happen with gold.

Been 'rasslin with farfel over new pairadimes. Gold Actually looks quite cheap to me at sub 300. Now if we could just get gold and nicotine mixed...

Myrmidon. It is not the first time this idea has been "floated" at kitco. But, it is interesting to me, as a salty antipodean, that the North American solution is to market gold. Like the solution to the world's ill is in Madison Ave. Well you understand what I mean. See, as you know, most of the world is not american, does not eat Big Macs or drink COke, does not vote, cannot read, does not swim and does not drive and knows that gold = wealth.
THe change will come, not through brilliant advertising campaigns ( you're too new to know of Sheller's GET REAL, GET GOLD, t-shirts ) ;-0 , but when the people who know tell the people who know not, and they tell those that know less.

the people have greater wisdom than the leaders know

Ra! Ra!

au Ra Tor

Yes I believe the world is in chaos with terrorist, fiat currency, natural disasters, conspiracies, deflation, inflation, depression, stock market crashes, insolvent countries, politicians and Hillery.

Any one of these signs is enough to make a sane person look at gold as a safe haven but that is not the reason I purchase gold.

I am hoarding this precious metal because I like the feeling I get touching, stacking and adoring the heavenly glow it radiates in the sunlight. What other investment vehicle out there has the magical power of gold? It is portable, exchangeable, and coveted by all nations.

I buy bullion coins with June 99 put options to limit my risk ( 10% ) . Sure my money could sit in a MM earning 5.25% interest but all I would have is a statement each month outlining my taxable income. Greed is Good! imho

Not only gold looks cheap but it is cheap, except to the public. Your market is the public and has to be better promoted. One doesn't have to be a gold bug to buy it! CHANGE THE PERCEPTION.

If you want public participation, you have to launch a good advertizing campaign. Otherwise the debate on the price of gold will continue from here to eternity.

Lurker777
Bit by the bug
the gold bug. I can tell by the light in your eyes, could it be sun - shine?

aurophthalmologerator

Aurator- Whoa there big fella. You are painting with too broad a brush. This Northernmost American has been activley trying to prick holes in the gold marketing ballon.

Currently Humble

G'day 777. You have got your head on your shoulders, mate. Good strategy and you are going to make good money. For a bit of spice, find some penny dreadful gold shares that are selling for less than their cash in the bank, let alone millions of oz of undiscovered gold in the ground, and you will be an even happier lurker. You have covered yourself nicely, but you have not taken ENOUGH risk. Go for it, mate. You ain't gonna live twice. Make this life a rich one. Cheers from down under.

I believe that your question deserves a reasonable answer. IMHO
We have had and still do have the biggest anti-GOLD marketing campaign being waged by "THEM" everyday talking heads at CNBC
Wallpaperweelk and on and on.... What you are suggesting is a
Gold marketing campaign that cannot suceed because the other side
has vastly superior "Weapons of Mass Deception:" and all the free
paper money imaginable."Perception" of Gold will only change
when faith in US$ is deminished wolrd wide, then and only then
will people once again turn to GOLD "The Currency of Last Resort."

The ones who know, tell to the ones who don't, and this goes on for 15 years, BUT the public is out. And the gold bugs wait for the crash. We all have been waiting for the blessed crash, that is why LG2A calls us the "impoverished" - and he is right.

You will not sell to the public gold on the "crash / chaos idea". The public hates such terms. DeBeers found the right words and it worked!

Oh Auracious one. When is paradise being traded for 3000 oz of REAL money??

Producer: I stand humbled and admonished, thank you.

BBLL

"save the world"

'Member that song? They wrote it about Camdessus.

For Nick ( excuse long post )

I refer your question to Colleen on joberg house

prices. Cape town more expensive than joberg and price depends

on suburb.

Im looking at the paper - I think one could get a

house in Hout Bay - near beach for 1 mill easy -

prices negotiable by maybe 20% - I see another there

for 825 asking with 3 beds 2 baths + en suite guest

room - ( knock off 20% ) - for stuff On the beach

( llandudno ) -spend up to 2 mill. Constantia - top stuff

1.5 - 2 mill - down market Constantia area - 1.0 mill.

use 4.8 to us$ for exchange rate.

Check with colleen but I think most South african

are in hock and battle to make bond payments. Many

are in stock markets - sometimes when some drunk

in the ANC says he's gonna kill all the whites -

k-rand sales go up for a day or two - that passes

away quickly when the guy sobers up in jail and

apologizes. They arent the gold holders you would

expect them to be - in 1988 many left with k-rands

hidden in shoes and other places. This depressed

house prices, and yours truly was the only blue eyes

arriving as the others were leaving. Perceptions

have changed but people in the North worry about crime

and everyone worries about employment and education.

The ANC government is supportive of

the gold industry as it employs many of its

constituency - The advantage of being more labour

intensive. However, if gold went to 5000$, I think

they would change their policy and either tax the

industry to death or nationalize it - in doing

so I think they would simply be following precedents

that would be established in the USA and Australia. It

is too easy to see gold in the ground as a National asset

if you are a broke polititian and cant print money any

more - see roosevelt in 1933 or whatever.

In other words, I think the mines almost ANYWHERE ( but North

america ) are great up to say $750/oz - after that I think

switch to metal.

Too easy to change ground rules on mines and milk them.

G'day ZEE. Check out the satellite site at sunset. You can see all the Asians sharing sunset with us. Check it out again in winter. Who moved that sun???

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth?imgsize=320&opt=-l?=-26&ns=North&lon=-143.458&ew=West&alt=147106603&img=learth.evif

BeachBoyAuracious--the shadow approacheth!!

I think real investment demand of about 10 million ounces ( 311 tonnes ) annually in North America would send gold prices to well over $500.
Gold really doesn't have to be promoted, but the media has to be attacked viciously by the "PM Newsletter Writers" for the predicament that NA citizens will soon suffer because of the Media's defense of the Anti Gold establishment, or the simple twisting of facts.
All the bad press relative to the holocast, shady coin dealers and Bre-x hasn't helped either.
It seems that no one cares about all the low grade financial dealings that occurred in the past that dwaft the bad press about gold. For instance, the Savings and Loans mess and Junk Bonds to name a few.

Anybody read the statement tonight by a finance minister that Japan would defend the yen in"Unexpected Ways" if necessary. What could that mean

Aurator-Did you ever look up Humboldt Current?

Nick@C asking only 1600 Troy Oz. Waiting, waiting.

Producer, didn't have look it up. kicking myself for not remembering and grateful to you and to kitco for the chance to learn once more.

Friday I bought my first Gold Mutual Fund ( Scudder Gold ) and have a new futures account with some June 99 370 and 340 calls. I also bought March 98 T-bond put @118 for the fun of it.

I don't feel comfortable picking individual gold stocks yet so the mutual Funds work for me.

How about if Kitco made a video of all past currency collapses ( and the Asian ) ? A well made 20 min. video can be very effective for the uninformed.

Nick@C Beachboy aurator? I give you or anyone else who can ( I couldnt ) , permission to post that picture of aurator at the beach.
 already wants to know where my togs/cossie/trunks/swimming costume/short come from. Probably a fashion item for '98.

auratohighfashionmodel

Thanks muchly, mate. Sounds like real estate on a par with Oz. Maybe a little cheaper for "sovereign risk". I shall visit one day when I can tear myself away from the business.

I still think S.A. gold mines to be one of the bargains of the century. Aussie gold, however, just as good, so am staying close to home where I can keep an eye on the buggers. Your comparative info very interesting. I like to look at forward sales as a major component, however, as all the institutional buyers are covering their arses in case gold doesn't go up to expectations. A good mix of blue sky, oz in ground, lack of major debt, cash costs AND forward sales soothes the chicken shits and helps the share price ( which is all I'm really interested in ) . Even then, I don't hold for long. In 'n out -- my favourite hobbie ( s ) . Cheers.

John Disney-I have ticket in hand. If your offer was genuine please email me details at Rossnovak@aol.com

I will try to get to Cape town, time and business permiting.

On Dec 03/97 at 18:15 in my post I spoke of "Currency Graveyards"
which was followed by generous contributors of a few URLs
detailing said "Currency Graveyards'. Perhaps you or someone,could put
something together in a video form from said sources,with permission
of course, and "market it".

Anyone notice the price of platinum lately. Didn't see much yeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawing on this site. Am I the only one who loves koalas????

ALL: I may have to repost this later when more of the regulars are up, but I have a serious question for all the goldbug contrarians like LGB ed al who ( like me ) are still short to some degree on gold. Does anyone think that gold wil NOT rise significantly within the next five years? If not, why not? If so, how much? Many thanks.

To all

I posted about 20/25 copies of the spread sheet info.

Its about as much as I can cope with. I must revise

the dbn - deep info and I await comment from anyone

who found boo-boos.

One lady had I problen in that the could not convert

the data - she got a message - like "must be converted

from bin tex 4 "- any comments ?? Id like to help her

but dont understand her problem.

Just wondering, why did you choose Scudder?
I am havin gyrations trying to choose a gold fund.
Looked at Blanchard, US Global, Lexington S.I., Central Fund of Can., Van Eck Intl

John_D: Any thoughts? ASA fund is exclusively S.A.
( deep bow )

Dicisions, dicisions

Prost, ahhhh

Shiner

JD- Your friend needs a program to interpret your data to her computer.
Plenty of bin hex programs out there as free ware. Hope it helps.

Remember this, money, whatever form it takes or placates in your mind. It does nothing but fund your emotions.

Never forget that.

For Flash

ASA is fine - lots of good script but heavy in dries which not

my favorite. Ask your broker if its at a discount to underlying

assets. if so - consider buying long calls maybe striking 25 or 30.

A run to 50 in a year may be in the cards.

In that line, I prefer a company called AMGOLD which you can get in the US im sure. It has more Vaal reef oriented stock in it and less dries but it has no options.

G"Day,

Sorry to you both.

If you need something quickly, speed up your words so that they run together. Speaking in a "context" usually gets perspective more quickly than a simple issue.

Living in Paarl, Worschester, Stellenbosch, ......wonderful. Sorry missed out the Hex River Valley. Long way from the coast, stay away from waves. Cheap living mate, or have you not noticed.

Watch the news.

Aye, Haggis

Thanks for finding something on this 'little' news story. Somehow, I sense the game players are moving the chairs on us. Perhaps this is why I always maintain a position in this 'worthless stuff in the ground'. You never when, or in which direction this yellow dog will move. :- ) )

Internationally acclaimed financial analyst shares his latest brilliance with the GOLD-EAGLE readership. A few cardinal excerpts:

We are currently witnessing one of the greatest events in
world history, a total and complete economic collapse.

...Korean Banks have borrowed billions of U.S. dollars. The collapse of the won has resulted in major foreign exchange losses for the banks. Bankrupt borrowers and large foreign exchange losses will lead to the failure of most banks in Korea.

The IMF cannot alter the financial collapse of South Korea. Every
dollar lent by the IMF will be used to bail out a foreign lender. That is all. It replaces private debt with public debt. It does not alter the financial strength of Koreans' Bankrupt Companies.

Japan is in the same boat... only the Nippon boat is FAR LARGER! KUTYNS full report at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn122997.html

Your thoughts on the value of mining shares versus the price of gold echo comments I made a while ago. Clearly, if the price of gold gets too high, then some action will be taken. I've speculated a while back that a good exit price for mining shares would be somewhere around $600/oz. Who knows this time? Perhaps we have to allow for some inflation in these numbers. :- ) )

Clearly though, the point of 'confiscation of gold in the ground', ( through taxes or whatever ) will come when the currencies ( dollar ) 'store of value' comes under severe questioning by the general public. After all, isn't this what made the 1980 spike and gave us 20+% interest rates in the U.S.?

The bottom line to all of this is the old question of the 'store of value'. Funny how all of the arguments, sooner or later come back to this fundamental point. A person works for 'money'. This money represents their stored 'work value'. If this money is debased, then the past work is essentially stolen. I grant you that very few people look at money in this context, but is it not true?

People look at inflation as too much money chasing too few goods. Could this definition be restated as a loss in the 'store of value' perception of money? If so, then you restore currencies 'store of value' by increasing the interest rate on it. What a con-cept, I promise to pay you more of this 'currency' in the future to compensate you for it's OBVIOUS devaluation today. :- ) )

Buy physical gold when it's cheap ( platinum too ) ! :- )

Regarding your 3:37, Excel version problems? In other words, an older version of Excel trying read a newer version? Who else but Microsoft would think of such an improvement. :- ) )

Noted ORACLE OF HONG KONG, Milhouse, provides yet another astute and insightful critique of the Nippon Financial Malaise. Milhouse is decidedly bearish, and feels the rapidly falling Nikkei is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better!

In Japan, the economic recession continues relentlessly. Furthermore, major falls in the stock market appear very likely in 1998, wiping out whatever capital remains in the troubled Japanese institutions.

I believe there is a greater chance that the Japanese people will start accumulating GOLD to protect their substantial savings...

Milhouses clear-sighted and perceptive report may be found at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse122997.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971224/argentina_expands_ba_1.html

December's arrogant breath challenges the trembling loose limb upon which the great Golden-beaked eagle confidently rests. Warm red hues of splintered light radiate from the feathers of the magnificent bird as the new sun begins its daily work. He knows what the morrow brings. And the blood of the tree slowly replenishes the once-broken fiber of its arm...this organic loft grows stronger...strong enough to launch the mighty predator into his ravishing journey. Tomorrow, or tomorrow'morrow, there is little concern of this, for the bird will fly and headless creatures will fall to paint the dirt from which they came. Devoured.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971223/mof_says_japan_credi_1.html

Rick Ackerman regularly contributes market analysis to the Sunday San Francisco Examiner and has also written numerous times for
Barron's. Presently, he is bullish on GOLD, and VERY bearish on common stocks.

He observes The result has been the creation of a global credit bubble that is about to collapse and take the stock market with it. The size of the bubble is the reason why the market will not
return to health with the 10 to 20 percent correction that
nearly everyone on Wall Street seems to be hoping for.

Somewhere down the road, when share prices have been cut in half, the excess of the credit system will be cited as the cause of the collapse.

Most likely, gold stocks, bullion and long-term Treasuries will be the best place to be, along with some foreign debt instruments. But don't count on being able to shift your money when the trumpets sound, for there will be no time then.

Detailed comprehensive report at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/ackerman122697.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971223/japan_to_make_pca_sy_1.html

Just scrolling through Saturday nights postings.

tolerant1 - I was confused too! When I looked at postings for Nando, I saw the same story as was released by Reuters. Not that this means anything other than the news services have the same news feed. Besides, who said that news people got their stories right anyhow. Sometimes I think they exist to confuse me! :- ) )

Donald__A - Thanks for your 23:16 post on Saudi mining. I thought they 'only' had oil there. Who woulda thunk they had 'minerals'. :- ) )

BBML........

Did you hear the one about Carlos Castaneda, Ananda Marga and Tuesday ( or was it Wednesday? ) Lobsang Rampa adrift on the Kon Tiki?

Seriously, Salty, advertising, and any and all of its techniques are only valuable when they are applied to a specific, worthwhile, and moral goal. Myrmidon pointed to DeBeers using the "heart sell" to push diamonds, and that is very nice and proper when your sole motive is to move stones. My concern is NOT necessarily the price of gold, though I would like it to rise as much as any gold bull here. My concern is not for sales of gold coins or artifacts or decorations by dealers and fabricators, though I wish ALL business owners, generally, prosperity and financial health. My concern with gold is that people own it for the right, historical reasons, at the right time. My concern is for the tenets of liberty, true democracy, and financial honesty upon which all progressive minds attempt to found nations. My concern is against the subterfuge and ignorance that allows civilizations to dissipate and sink, taking us all with it. I want people to buy gold for the right reasons. It does no good to "sweet Talk" them into it, and let them wake up one day marvelling at how their wives' wedding bands or their tacky bracelets are suddenly worth more than their silver houses. If they don't KNOW why, then they will have it taken from them again. If they DO know why, they are blessed, and have a chance at preserving some of their freedom and intellectual integrity. I do not support greed. I support knowledge. I do not fault those who seek and work with knowledge if they are wrong. I consider only their apparent motive. If it takes a soap box, or if it takes a T Shirt, it is a message worth getting across. Do not be so harsh and salty with those who go off to prove or claim things that seem seamed and unacceptable to minds who would be stopped by tiny incongruities. It is better to live one's life in the light of a great glowing vision, however flawed, than to be stopped at every turn by a grey, and lifeless "detail" that drains all energy and enthusiasm. There will always be such a detail, or someone to point it out. It may or may not be relevant to anything. Beware of it, however, at all costs. Get Real. Get Gold.

From where I sit can see approx. 4 inches of wet snow on the new floor joists with more still falling from the sky and the wind a whippin---a good day ta take off!!! go team gold~~~~~~~~

The only salt I use, will rim the glass on my margarita. Thank you for your thoughts...by the by, I am not the manic depressoid that my last post may have illustrated.

It's a little early for me, but enjoy your Margarita! Salud. No apologies for poetic posts, please. It is a time hallowed tradition at kitco, and one very welcome. It only demonstrates more fully how versatile and well-rounded are most of the souls who haunt this auric cyberplane. Thanks to Bart for making it possible.

We got a dusting of snow here last night. It was raining for most the evening till the change over to snow.

HOW EVER! Tomorrow nights forecast is a little different. A 'big' storm is forecast ( whatever that means! ) . Snow to start Monday night and end Tuesday. Funny though, they won't stick their necks out and predict amounts! The last storm was 'only' supposed to be one to three inches. I guess they used a different ruler. It was more like ten to twenty plus, depending on where you were...

I wish I could be as wrong on the markets as the weather boys are forecasting, and STILL make the money that those video talking/graphic heads make!!!

Weather forcasters aren't too 'swift' here either......Hope 'yer storm' doesn't prevent me from going to the casino New Years Eve!!

This prediction gains tremendous credibility after you read the credentials of its author:

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

If we go back to an earlier section of this paper, we observed that after 1971, when the artificial pressure was lifted from gold prices that prices advanced to a peak of 24 times the old price and settled around approximately 10 times the old price. No two events in any market develop precisely the same, but just as an
exercise, if something similar happens this time, gold prices might peak near $8,400.00, and settle around $3,500.00 an ounce.

The remote possibility that these numbers can be correct, is enough evidence to make it easy to understand why the central bankers and high government officials around the world want to denigrate, denounce, discard, disown and dislike gold, plus keep prices low. It makes one want to take time to consider what the implications of anything remotely resembling this happening might be. The last time gold had been held down artificially for 37 years. This time, so far, it has only been 17, which may lessen the next rise. On the other hand we have asset markets that have reached such lofty levels, where no less an authority than the FED Chairman has described the situation, as long as a year ago, as "Irrational Exuberance". So who can tell? Let's not lose sight, while we are pondering the question, of the trillions and trillions of fiat megabyte dollars, yen, marks, and what have you, that are whizzing around the world electronically every minute of every hour of every day. They have to end up buying something, and it might just be gold one of these days.

Part II of his mind-blowing essay is located at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/jmiller122097.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971227/japan_to_act_decisiv_1.html

JAMES DINES LATEST ON GOLD

Long-time veteran precious metals analyst starts his report with a Point & Future chart of LONDON GOLD, going all the way back to 1980. It clearly shows a TRIPLE-BOTTOM at about the $280 level ( 1982, 1985 and the present ) . The last two times it reached Dines Buy Zone, the yellow zoomed to the $500 area:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines122297.html

What I found interesting was the following:
1. Hashimoto made a visit in November
2. Hoiuchi is extremely well-connected ( Party-wise )
3. Saudi A. is the ONLY country which has a special agreement
to borrow with the IMF, i.e. the IMF borrows from THEM not visa versa!

Putting these three disparate items together makes for interesting speculations, yes?

The Saudis, after all, are not the ONLY oil producers; but, they are the only oil producer with this intriguing arrangement with the IMF.

One finds it very difficult to believe that the Japanese are SO accommodating, so unaware of US real financial situation, that they truly consider long-term US paper the very safest place to stash a substantial tranche of their countrys wealth.

Having researched other swaps that have been done, in other times, other places with US paper, I do not find it difficult to entertain the possibility that there is a special accommodation between IMF/Saudi/Japan.

And then, of course, there are Another's comments...

Lurker 777:
Sometimes, One must re-examine ones choice use of
words, and their implied definitions:

Why is it that people hoard gold,
but invest in currencies
invest in stox and bonds
and invest in deposit accounts,
and accumulate wealth??

Yo are NOT hoarding, you are INVESTING nad
ACCUMULATING yuor wealth. And this is NOT
greed.

Interestingly, my thesaurus says that the antonym of
hoard is:
donate
give
waste.

O.K., if that is the opposite of a hoarder, Ill be proud to accept that name, on second thought

Also, sometimes One must proofread One's own
work before submitting it.

The current bull market has been financed by the "yen carry trade." . Where market particpants borrow yen to buy other assets. The yen carry trade to be profitable, requires a falling yen v. the purchased asset and continued low yen interest rates. If the yen starts rising the players in the yen carry trade will be forced to unwind the trade which will only
make the situation worse for the remaining yen carry trade players. AS yen interest rates and gold rates are about the same, I don't expect any unwinding to directly effect the gold markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/index.html

Date: Sun Dec 28 1997 10:49
SDRer__A ( Panda, Saudi saga... ) ID#288157:

Good catch SDRer. I agree that the visit is covering issues that make Rubin and Alan sweat. Any moves that remove the dollar from the normal trading hurt the U.S. dollar. Japan has said they will defend the yen. I for one believe them.

The Japanese are more than capable in working a deal directly with the Saudi's and they are more than able to sell treasuries for gold.

The tough times are coming for the U.S. and very few will be ready.

IMHO

Have you seen today's NY Times, Floyd Norris Market Watch? He calls for an "Morgan" like solution ( from ninety years ago ) . He wants a group made up of people like Rubin, Pohl and Volker to get together and decide who should be bailed out and who left for road kill in Korea.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971224/japan_crunch_1.html

I reviewed last nights posts and noticed that a loss of confidence in US supremacy would aid gold. An important development I noted was a headline in the WASH TIMES "Yeltsin critcizes free market".
The upshot of the article was Yeltsin's apparent decision to fire Pro West
free market advisors Chubais and Nemtsov. Nemtsov made a reference to "Red Leaders" ,in a speech given in Sweden, as wanting to destroy Capital. This was considered counter to Yeltsin's desire to reconcile with the Communists. Yeltsin is bringing in Communist Leaders to develop land reform. One of the provisions proposed by the Communists and adopted by Yeltsin is to forbid any foreign ownership of land. There will also be time restrictions on resale.
I think Yeltsin is moving to the left because of the govts 10% approval rating AND MORE IMPORTANTLY a growing disdain for the West and the IMF. Was this in the Press elsewhere? This can only be good for gold and bad for financials. There are signs the US / Russia detente is heading towards a more fractious status.

( No John Disney, this is nothing like Hartebeestfontein ) . Brother Vronsky posted Joseph Miller's postulation that in the last gold compensation for government abuse, the ensuing asset inversion was 37 years in the making. He feels that in this next, coming, such inversion, gold and money has only been betrayed for 17 years, so the catch-up bull may not be as dramatic as the last. I see it a bit differently. If anything, over time, what I call "the Gold Heartbeat" is picking up speed, and the pulses of gold excitability in this secular cycle are now coming at a more rapid rate. Much as anything organic in nature begins to pant more rapidly, and pulse more quickly, as excitement, and stimulus, mount ( let's not get too hot and bothered there, fellow kitcoites, but you get the picture ) . The ultimate end of this will come ( you'll pardon the expression ) with a blowoff ( hmmm ) barely ( oh my ) imaginable by today's paper whores - a vision only touched currently by some of the more outrageous and radical goldbugs. I won't mention names. I was derided by some by claiming, for the longest time, that gold would be above $2000 before too many months of the new century rolled by. I may have to revise my timid estimates upward, but, as always, I will tend toward the conservative side ( ;- )

gold was confiscated at $35 oz double the prior price.. The net effect was a windfall to the holders of gold. In hind sight.

Are YOU a card-carrying member of the Communist party?????

Russia's impending lurch to the left once more is symptomatic of all the wrong reasons and motives for cultivating "free markets" ( something which it embraked upon with astounding ignorance , ineptness, and cupidity ) . It was virtual bankrupcy, financial and cultural ( the cultural always comes first ) that forced Russia to look for "another way." Seeing the prosperous West, yet not understanding ONE WHIT the principles behind that prosperity, Russia ran off in a spasm of greed to "catch up" with the good things in life. Yet, unfortunately, there was nothing good in the national soul or intellect to allow it to understand, in any way shape or form, what it was doing. This nation is a doomed people. The corruption and devastation of a stiffnecked statism for far too long has utterly destroyed hope for the current, and several succeeding generations. This pronouncement saddens me, but I know a little of the Russian mentality. It will take 40 years in the wilderness before these slaves will understand what freedom, self government, and a market economy is all about. Russia will be a black hole in Europe for decades.

I hadn't seen that. Must say I'm not terribly surprised...are you?

ROB: You are mistaken, I believe. Gold was confiscated in "America" ( something which should have precipitated a revolution if Americans weren't so ignorant ) at $20 an ounce. Then the dollar was immediately devalued, the price of gold in dollars raised to $35 an ounce. Thus, not only was a precious and natural freedom taken from Americans, but the value of their savings and their paper money was reduced relative to the rest of the world. All in one swell foop!

Not surprised, but clearly the IMF is starting to be publicly viewed as incompetent at best and as a camel whose nose is too far under the tent at worst.

Check out Larouche's latest EIR talks. at www.larouchepub.com

Has the China Dragon eaten the Asian Tigers?

Hello Mike....seasons greetings to all "kittys at kitco".
Several weeks ago u gave me some advice on building up my gold portfolio.
After some analysis I figured your advice was corret and it was. I bought
in on the downside and I am patiently waiting for the upside.
I live in Malaysia and we have been hit quite hard by the strong dollar and the regions stock market crash. The people here have traditionally owned a lot of gold jewellery but this current crissis has made them even
more aware of GOLD value. In rescent weeks tens of millions of dollars of
GOLD have been bought up as an insurance against depreciation. This trend
will continue and we should see some BULLS in the market pretty soon.
Gents n ladies please share your toughts...n I have some " GOLD IS REAL "
T-shirts for sale!!

The key to financial independence is to know who will win the hidden battle between the U.S. dollar and gold.

International Econo-political analyst shares his critique of Kutyn and Milhouse financial opinions of the Southeast Asian currency crisis, stock market meltdown and crumbling banking systems vis--vis George Soros "REFLEXIVITY" THEORY. Truly an intellectual erudite analytical work. See:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus122997.html

http://www.futures-research.com/mktltr.htm

Lots of goodies here!

I am a member of the Dominant Wing of THE PARTY known as the Minnesota Viking cell.

powmain ( Asia ) ref: "your COMMENT: "Has the China Dragon eaten the Asian Tigers?"

Unfortunately, I sincerely believe both will "drown" in the Sea of Currency Devaluations.

The NY Times has been failing to report the M1 M2 and M3 money supply. According to the Financial Research Center the Times stopped printing it each friday as they always have. According to FRC. the 3 week total early this month reached a $50 billion increase. The Fed is pumping money out like crazy.Last month this table showed an M3 annualized growth rate of 10.1% for the previous 3 months.

On gold and the word "hoarders". Consider yourselves "patriots" from whatever country you inhabit. Someone has to be there to pick up the pieces in order to permit democracy and freedom to continue. As in Germany in the 20's economic, monetary and fiscal failure quickly can lead to dictatorship and a new 21st century holocaust. There is much more at stake here than mere profit and loss. This is very serious business. That is an aspect of gold investment which totally escapes virtually all Americans and probably most citizens in other countries. The founding fathers knew this well. Jefferson said it most eloquently in some writings that I have posted here previously. Each piece of gold that you place safely away is an act of true patriotism and confirmation of your belief in the ideals of the patriots who began this venture in 1776.

Amen Brother.

Mike...are u there...

DONALD: You are so right. And so right to quote one of my favorite philosophers and metaphysicians, Thomas Jefferson. As has been pointed out by some of the best freemarket thinkers ( Austrian School Economist Von Mises, and America's Murray Rothbard come to mind ) "hoarding" is as valid a consumer want as buying popsicles or home entertainment centers. It is the nature and beauty of a truly free market to express every want imaginable. I was just watching NYC Comptroller Alan Hevesi on CBS this morning being interviewed by Marsha Kramer. They were discussing the reprehensible behavior of the Swiss Banks re the holocaust gold issue. While Mr Hevesi was very lucid and moralconcerning Swiss institutions serving their own and Nazi interests during the war, he was too quick to defend government sponsored gambling. "It exists out there, so why shouldn't we profit by it ( create a legal monopoly ) " was his ultimate philosophy on the matter, even though he expressed personal moral reservations ( obviously not strong enough to keep his hands off the slimy profits ) . Beware of government taking unto itself the "right" to an activity that is illegal to the private citizen. Be it the ownership of gold, or the monopolization of legal gambling. Why not run drugs, and sell people's bodies? Or am I being naive?

Eloquent!

AYSHA: I'm here. Just venting . I'm glad to hear my advice did you some good. I think you jumped in at just the right time, and coming weeks and months will demonstrate that. Besides, as I recall, you are in the jewelry business, so it can't hurt having some extra inventory lying around.

I think this is one of the 3 most important times in this century to be accumulating gold and gold-related assets. Be it in coins, bars, shares, or claims in the ground ( you can really get a lot of ounces for a little bucks that way - the earth is your piggy bank! ) . BTW, the GET REAL GET GOLD "Official Goldbug's T Shirt from Clarity Resources, Inc. is going to be making its IPO very soon. Will save one for you!

I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest
of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with
perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion
and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labours of the
people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.

Back up?

SDRer__A ( Panda, Saudi saga... )

Many thx for the revelation that the Saudis are important creditors to the IMF. I have studied with many Saudis, and crossed paths with them in the international investment scene. To the man, they were all ACUTELY SHARP BUSINESSMEN, and painfully conservative ( for one on the other side of the negotiating table ) . Therefore, I have NO DOUBT whatsoever that Saudi Money lent to the IMF is AMPLY COLLATERALIZED by ALL IMF GOLD DEPOSITS. In fact true to the Saudi nature ( which I have the maximum respect for ) , the GOLD GUARANTEE ( read IMF gold deposits being used as collateral for the Saudi Loan ) is most certainly in escrow in some world bank which has NO connection to the IMF. The rationale for this arrangement is simple. If the IMF goes belly-up through its many reckless "rescue" packages to Mexico, Asian Tigers, or those-soon-to-be bankrupt countries, the Saudis as good businessmen will want to get their hands on the IMF collateral ( GOLD ) to recoup their loans.

And in my very considered opinion, all the SDRs that the IMF has in its Balance Sheet will be FINALLY recognized by even the most naive observer as being what it REALLY IS, P-A-P-E-R! Paper with no instinsic value. Paper that cannot be used as a medium of exchange. An ILLUSION OF VALUE.

It would indeed be interesting to find out how much Saudi money has been lent to the IMF.

Thank you for the e-mail. Unfortunately I am having the same compatibility problem that you mentioned others are having. I get a short series of characters that are a cross between Cyrillic and Klingon. Has anoyone offered a solution?

Here in northern Nevada we look for the current gold slump to result in additional acquisitions by majors. Of the smaller producers, Getchell Gold ( symbol GGO ) and Canyon Resources ( symbol CAU ) are ones I try to track. Getchell's cost of production will come down dramatically to ~$225/oz when they start mucking ore from the Turquoise Ridege orebody. Canyon is sole owner of 5-8 million oz. of resource at MacDonald Meadows ( Montana ) . At some point in working through the economics and politics of developing the deposit, some major will step in and acquire Canyon.

I would appreciate your thoughts on the following possibility that is making the bar circuit here: Once AngloGold gets all its chips in a pile, it will come prowling North America for a major to acquire. It seems to me that Newmont would make a very tasty morsel....

From Iran Business Digest ( last year )
Iran Increases Oil Exports to Japan by 30 Per Cent
Japan's new oil policies have resulted in increasing oil imports from Iran. According to a Tehran daily, export of Iran's crude oil
to Japan jumped by 30 per cent last month, compared to the same period last year.

Official statistics show that despite a 3.1 per cent decrease in Japan's oil imports during April, Iran boosted oil exports to that country by 103,000 barrels per day. Currently Iran exports over 455,000 barrels of crude oil per day to Japan, which put it among the three major oil exporter to that country. Japan lifted some of the restrictions on its oil companies during April, leaving them free to decide their own oil policies.
( C ) Copyright 1996 by Neda Rayaneh Institute

http://www.neda.net/ibd/ne1jun16.html


From Capital Trends, Nov 97 ( re: September 97 IMF Hong Kong meeting )
TOKYO'S HIDDEN AGENDA?
Significantly, the idea has seen the light of day within a few months of Eisuke Sakakibara taking over the role of vice minister for international affairs at MoF. Sakakibara makes no secret of the fact that he deplores what he terms the "Washington consensus" on development, centering on the promotion of global capital flows, foreign direct investment and "neo-liberal" economic policies in general. Sakakibara may be using the new Asian Fund to promote his own agenda, suggested some observers in Hong Kong.

http://www.gwjapan.org/nrca/ctv2n13b.html

VERY helfpful insight. Thanks!

VERY helfpful insight. Thanks!

I have scanned Kitco for the last 1.5 years and would like to thank each one for the frequent erudite posts on the relationship between gold, currency, trade policies, present economic policy fads, world debt, and the ultimate outcome.

Tryin ta rub it in....eh buddy~~~~~~~~Go Pats.....

Thanks Mike...FYI the demand for Au waffers has been so great that the
lower weight range has been NIL STOCK before the holidays indicating a
high retail buying demand.This results in hoarding by the kilo buyers too. There is a massive shift of savings into the yellow metal and I think this is also true with the big players.

My concern is that this shift to GOLD was already anticipated by the currency big boys and the current demand is n will be filled by them
liquidating their positions.

In our anticipation of a rally what are the possibilities of a melt down
which would hurt all the serious gold belivers. I must say that the amount of savings being converted into gold positions would total up to
several billion dollars.

Are the Asian markets open tonight? ( NA time ) .

Oil for US Bonds and US$
Does this mean Iran has all those US Bonds and $ now - interesting.

digdeep---

what happened in the years preceding the crash of '29?

the 'printing entity' inflated the monetary supply by 40%+ !!
how much has the money supply grown in the last 5 yrs? 3 yrs? 1 yr?

why was that done? why is the fed printing $$$ as fast as the press
will run?

'they' are trying to catch the bullet with a tortuga....

bald-headed al greeesyspan and his 'control' of the $$$$$
have hit a snag in the creek. he has been lauded as the
creator/sustainer of an economy that produced the greatest stock
bull in history. he has shone like a beacon on high....right?

wrong--------the last chapter is yet to be written. his nom de plume
will be quite scurrolous. manipulate, or put pressure on ANYTHING,
and you force an equal and opposite reaction.

the very policies of grenspammy are forcing the exact opposite
reaction desired!! this is so basic-------physics........

for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction...isaac newton

greenspammies rock ( policies ) , is faced with an irresistable force
of his own design.....yet, he knows not what he has done. how ironic,
the controller being controlled by an out-of-control policy....

EVERYTHING is just this simple. actions and reactions....timing is
the problem....

timing is no longer a problem for the paper-tiger and her riders.
she has conceived, been believed, and is now ready to receive her
sleepwalking riders inside-her......

what are the japans going to do tonight? with more bankruptcies and
financial mis-deeds surfacing daily, the panic has yet to set-in.

there are BIG plans being made by many of the suppossed 'allies'
( friends ) [sic] to take power away from the us and her accompanying
mighty $$$. these plans are for the new power brokers to be. we are
in the plans, but not one of the planners. the us is faced with a
major catch 22. our leadership role is being hotly contested, in the
financial arena now, and soon in the gun-powder arena....

time is short.......volatility extreme......what are your eyes telling
----------------------------------------------------------------YOU?


cherokee!; ) -----holding-the-keys------looking-for-the-lock.......

Yes
Gold & Asia 6pm I think, they vary.

http://www.pathfinder.com:80/Asiaweek/97/1226/ye15.html

Stanby...markets should open in 4 hours.

"We must not let the American People go down with Wall St. Wall St can go bankrupt but the American Industry and people must survive...
ROBERT RUBIN

I have felt and still feel the drop of the US$ will come from humiliataion in Korea. PJ O'Rourke has defined the Koreans as the Irish of the Pacific. When the IMF demands are implemented and the middle class of Korea takes it in the shorts IMHO the Koreans are gonna be muey, muey pissed. I feel that if China takes a role in setteling the differences between North and South Korea they will be looked at as the dominationg influence in the Pacific. The Chineese have a population ready to consume the output of the Tigers. The hydrocarbon reserves of Vietnam are yet to be exploited. Indonesia has the hydrocarbon reserves to fuel the region. I have seen the Chineese oil exploration and production manufacturing. They are making oil drilling rig components, pumpjacks and tubulars. They have people learning our completion and secondary recovery techniques. Petroleum has always been the weak link in Asia. The Chineese are fixing that. When the US is pushed out of Korea I feel the Japanese will no longer see any reason for continued occupation by US troops. Their oil will come from the Chineese and their "protection" will come from the Chineese. The Yuan will become the currency for trade in Asia. I feel at that point the Middle East oil producers will see no reason to continue the use of the US$. The dollar will be allowed to float, the IMF will rush in with a bail out plan of higher taxes and less economic freedoms. Then the US takes it in the shorts.

No. 92-D 88
DECISION BRIEF
THE HOUSE VERSION OF THE FREEDOM SUPPORT ACT:

The wisdom of this action is further evidenced by the fact that of the 10 banks which have already filed claims valued at over $1.5 billion with the CCC due to non-repayment by Iraq, only three are American-owned. Six of the seven foreign-owned banks WHICH AMERICAN TAXPAYERS WILL HAVE TO COMPENSATE for Iraqi losses include Arab Banking Company ( Bahrain ) , Gulf International Bank ( Bahrain ) , National Bank of Kuwait, UBAF Arab-American Bank, Girozentrale Vienna ( Austria ) and DG Bank ( Germany ) . It remains to be determined whether the $343 million in claims filed by the 7th bank, the corrupt Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, will be honored.

http://www.security-policy.org/papers/92-D88.html

2. Has the US been paying protection money? And is it funded off budget as are the IMF contributions?

3. We tend to forget ( comfortably ) that the Saudis western alignment is viewed dimly by much of the world. It would appear that Japan is making other arrangements...

AYSHA: The gold meltdown has ALREADY occurred. It has to be a genuine bull gathering force from here, else it is a whole new ballgame and I will have to admit I, and many others looking for the new upcycle to emerge , have been wrong. Nothing new for me. I'll sell out and go live in a trailer along the St Johns in Florida and spend the rest of my life writing and bass fishing. Nice hedge, isn't it? Life goes on! Enjoy the moment Aysha, enjoy your life.

DONALD: Be -a-yoo-tiful quote from Jefferson! Ain't he the best?!

I was young but remember the 1930's well. And the reason the american public accepted gold confiscation so quietly so simply due to the fact that very few people had any. Certainly my family circle and friends had none. I remember once being given a 2 1\2 dollar gold coin as a gift, but that was a rarity. So gold confiscation was a non-event for most peoople.

I'm not getting a hypertext link to SDRer's thread in his last two posts. Anyone else? SRDer could you post again?

KAHUNNA GRANDE: Was very interested in your comments re China & oil. This is a commodity they are in increasing need of. Do you have any observations concerning exploration or reserves of hydrocarbons in China? Are they naturally sparse, or just undiscovered? What is the likelihood of invitation to small, or independent, American exploration teams experienced in finding hydrocarbons? Any thoughts you may have would be very much appreciated.

Internationally acclaimed financial analyst shares his latest brilliance with the GOLD-EAGLE readership. A few cardinal excerpts:

We are currently witnessing one of the greatest events in
world history, a total and complete economic collapse.

...Korean Banks have borrowed billions of U.S. dollars. The collapse of the won has resulted in major foreign exchange losses for the banks. Bankrupt borrowers and large foreign exchange losses will lead to the failure of most banks in Korea.

The IMF cannot alter the financial collapse of South Korea. Every
dollar lent by the IMF will be used to bail out a foreign lender. That is all. It replaces private debt with public debt. It does not alter the financial strength of Koreans' Bankrupt Companies.

Japan is in the same boat... only the Nippon boat is FAR LARGER! KUTYNS full report at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn122997.html

SILVER PLATE: Brilliant ( and uncirculated ) observation!!! All the more reason to get more gold into the hands of MORE people. Whatever it takes. Can you imagine if government announced that all Patio umbrellas, or bathroom mirrors would be confiscated? That's how people should feel about gold, or ANY personal property. And not just their gold, but other people's as well. I still say, however, that the basic problem is ignorance. One can be poor, and yet fight the injustice of the robbery of another man. But your point is a powerful one that goes to the heart of human nature and psychology.

I need a little help making a determination on whether to invest in rare coins or bullion coins. I'm loaded down with ABX stock and some left over

gold coins from the 80's run up. I think I should have some more hard assets but do not no the best route to go. Help.

D.A. - Now YOU had your chance and now it's MY turn again...this blessed market will probably oscillate between those two numbers for a couple of months. And I am sure it will be because the whole world reads kitco and half ( more than half ;- ) ) are rooting for me and the other half ( less than half ) are rooting for you. I have 'Rothy' and AG and RR on my side......who do you have??!? ( ohmy ) ......smile....tick-tock, tick-tock....the gold-bug ran up the clock.....

away...to some serious ballgames....go fish!

afantoday...rah!rah!

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971228/news/stories/massacre_11.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971222/iran_needs_90_bn_oil_1.html

ror----

this statement by robert rubin en-capsulates the klinton
regime.

the statement explains their under-standing of reality......

rubin believes WALL STREET can go BANKRUPT, but investors and
associated industries will not....he definitely is a college
educated economist! the white house investors will surely
get-out/get-in at the right moment as billary showed her prowess
with cattle.

hot-damn-------whenever a problem occurs at the white house, the
spin doctors throw the situation into an 'locked-loop-system.'

-----!;............ssm----looping-while-locked-------

It depends on your deination of rare coins...Rare in mintage or Rare in grade. ALSO are you talking about silver coins or gold coins.

Mainland China's domestic reserves ar modest. Like the Russians they are using exploration, completion and production methods we used in the 1950's. From my research the future will lie offshore Vietnam. The chineese are in the US learning our techniques. Their downhole tubulars are as good as domestic.Their problem over there is drilling rig availibility and staffing of the rigs. Same as here. But the Chineese do not think in terms of months. Short term planning for them could be years. They are building the infastructure for the future. They can build the components for a drilling rig. They just dont have the people that can operate them. Of course these can be imported when the time is right. I know two consultants that have tried to do work with the Chineese and they say it is maddening. I feel the Chineese are developing their oil industry to be a supplier rather than a producer. If the Chineese can build the equipment and provide the support why would they need their own reserves. They think it is all theirs anyway. IMO the frontier for oil exploration in Asia is Vietnam. Reguardless of your feelings about the second place finish of the US in the SE Asia Wargames 1963-1975 Vietnam has the most interesting possibiities for oil exploration. In another 20 years China will be the dominating influence in Asia. Period!

I would be very surprised if the gold "rally" from the last 2 weeks goes anywhere. Most likely it is just a bounce that happened after gold reached its bottom. There are some problems that still remain to inhibit a rally:

1. Some central banks are probably still loaning out a lot of gold. I think this probably has the same effect on market price as selling it outright.

2. Mining production has not fallen off very much. The mining companies seem to have the attitude that it is better to mine at a loss than spend the money to shut down the mines. They are in a catch 22. If they really did close all unprofitable mines, the price of gold would quickly go up, and they would look stupid for closing the mines. Unfortunately, by leaving the mines open, the rally will be delayed.

I believe it will be a year or two before any real rally takes place. I think it will be worth the wait. Be patient. I still think this is the time to buy stocks and funds with dollar cost averaging. Gold is a bargian, and if you wait 18 months to sell, you are taxed at only 20%.

Of course, I could be completely wrong, and gold could go to $500 by June. Does anyone else have predictions? I know this site has a lot of optimists.

KUALA LUMPUR - The Malaysian government has said it will not compromise on the protection
of local financial institutions. Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who is also the Finance
Minister, said it was the government's priority to protect local financial institutions so that banks
remained strong and solid. He also urged financial institutions to exercise restraint when considering
new loan applications.

Sorry, can't type well today..Your definition of a rare coin. Oldtimers view low in mintage as rare the new breed have promoted high grade even in high mintage as rare.

There is no doubt that this is seasonally abnormal; there's also
no doubt of what can happen if Japan breaks the key
levels ( basically 14,400 or so in the Nikkei ) and doesn't bounce
back immediately. Such an event would travel around the globe,
flattening Europe in all likelihood, then creaming New York
thereafter. Views of what the New Year might ring in:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger122497.html

When did Goldman Sachs make that statement and in what context?
"We must not let the American People go down with Wall St. Wall St
can go bankrupt but the American Industry and people must survive...
ROBERT RUBIN

Four weeks ago I started to buy bullion coins and some ms65 numismatics, Yesterday made another buy of bullion, but no coins to be found in our area. My dealers showcase and back room were empty. FYI

I am hoarding this precious metal because I like the feeling I get touching, stacking and adoring the heavenly glow it radiates in the sunlight. What other investment vehicle out there has the magical power of gold? It is portable, exchangeable, and coveted by all nations.

Websters - hoard: a hidden accumulation

Thesaurus- stock, treasure

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. My son lives & works in China, is fluent in Mandarin, and is married to a Chinese national. ( She wants to live in America, he wants to live in China - go figure ) They both tell me the same thing - creating business there and dealing with the Chinese CAN be maddening. My son corroborates the longterm approach of the Chines in nearly all aspects of activity there. Especially business relationships. Despite the fact that my visit was not under the most pleasant of circumstances all the time, I found Vietnam, and its people, to be a lovely, alluring place in which I felt very much at home. The oil potential there is fairly legendary by now, as are the assessments regarding silver and gold.

1. http://www.gwjapan.org/nrca/ctv2n13b.html
this from the IMF mtg in HK, one P of which queries, Tokoyos Hidden Agenda?

2. http://www.security-policy.org/papers/92-D88.html
the policy paper comments are circa 1992, but important nonetheless )

3. http://www.futures-research.com/mktltr.htm
( this is the url from Sharefin )

Hope this helps,,,

Steady there fella...

http://www.pathfinder.com:80/fortune/1997/971229/tre.html

According to the following from the IMF site, they can't use gold as collateral. Is this dated or am I reading it wrong?
"According to Article V, Section 12 ( b ) of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, any transactions in gold by the IMF require an 85 percent majority of the total voting power of the IMF. The IMF may sell gold outright on the basis of prevailing market prices; it may accept gold in the discharge of a member's obligations to the IMF at an agreed price on the basis of prices in the market at the time of acceptance. The IMF does not have the authority to engage in any other gold transactions, e.g., loans, leases, swaps, or use of gold as collateral, and the IMF does not have the authority to buy gold."

Have you noted any Chinese functionaries visiting the middle east?
( the Vice Premier is on a visit to S. A. ) .

ALL: There is an interesting front page article in today's LA Times all about how the financial mess in Japan and Korea signals the dawning of a new golden age for global markets. "New Economic Era Opening in S. Korea, Japan" is the headline. It talks about how the two big economies are now going to be forced to engage in "foreign investment, trade, and commerce far more than they have to date... Ultimately, as reforms renew the vigor of these two major economies,...Seoul and Tokyo will provide the locomotive force to help the development of the giant economies of China, India, and Indonesia." It goes on to say how "timely international financing efforts" have reduced the threat of default by Korean banks and companies. Blah. Blah. Blah. Everything's coming up roses...Sounds like some pretty desparate spinning to me. I'll bet the whole article is on the LA Times web page if anyone wants to check it out.

Does anyone care to make any statement regarding my question from late last night? ( 3:36 ) I'd appreciate it. Gota go. I'll be back later.

http://204.34.197.106/chrls44.htm

Emerald Heights
Your local dealer may be out but, the larger houses such as National Gold, Heritage, and others always have large supplies. Wholesale and retail. Local dealers do not have the customer base or the capital to stock large quantities.
That is also the reason bullion may be a few dollars higher locally, as most do not hedge their inventory.

http://www.sddt.com/files/librarywire/97wireheadlines/10_97/DN97_10_17/DN97_10_17_1ao.html

http://www.state.vt.us/schools/mmu/history/MIDEAST.HTM

Carl ( vronsky, Re Saudi's and gold as collateral. )

Many thanks to SDRer and Carl helping develop thread. There are several thoughts which leap to mind regarding your comment. As you state the pertinent article, it is rather CLEAR the Articles of Agreement are quite restrictive in regards to gold. However, it merits further examination.

1. Where is the Internet source that you copied the Articles?

2. It requires reading the entire document to accurately determine the IMFs limiting restrictions in gold operations.

3. Have there been any subsequent Article modifications, which would effect what you posted? - that is as you suggested it might be dated.

4. The legal experts lurking at Kitco will attest to feasibility of circumventing any restrictive Article of Agreement by using deft legal language implemented by astute lawyers. These written compromises can be separate agreements, or become Addendae to the original Articles of Agreement. In the vernacular, I believe the applicable term is, there are more ways than one to skin a cat.

5. What is eminently certain to me is fact that the Saudis would never extend loans to ANYONE, without positive, tangible, unencumbered real assets as collateral for loans. Using the term with respect and figuratively, it is against their religion!

Since the IMF is presently traversing very troubled waters, which cannot avoid affecting the Domino Effect ravaging Asia, we all would be grateful if others at Kitco will add their knowledge to this thread.

donald_a---

logging-on to kitco with no problems makes me smile.

if bonds have truly topped, then you will be responsible ( partly )
for making me buy puts right as a market topped!

you are most surely an asset..........THE DON-------

who else has bought what? c'mon, it's only 3" in diameter and virtually
un-occupied, the limb that is. ahem....

still wondering why kitco showed platinum up $1.00 on friday, when
bmi, and wine spectator were showing $10.00+!!! who knows what happened?


dolphins fixin to swim up-stream...........just love fish ( beautiful cod )

!; ) ---------workin-for-the-future----living-in-the-now-----------



be brave, i'm a brave!

Share your sad but true insights into the current Russian Scene.Also enjoyed many chuckles over Gold Heartbeat "piece". Always enjoy your well reasoned offerings. Many other Fine postings today and last nite.Worth repeating Donald's comment re the "issuing of never- to- be paid-off debt instruments...calling them assets...then borrowing more against same". Crazy is as crazy does I guess.

The Cape Breton Cod are all dead~~~~~~~~~

http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/12/23/international_news/mideastpa_1.html

Noted ORACLE OF HONG KONG, Milhouse, provides yet another astute and insightful critique of the Nippon Financial Malaise. Milhouse is decidedly bearish, and feels the rapidly falling Nikkei is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better!

In Japan, the economic recession continues relentlessly. Furthermore, major falls in the stock market appear very likely in 1998, wiping out whatever capital remains in the troubled Japanese institutions.

I believe there is a greater chance that the Japanese people will start accumulating GOLD to protect their substantial savings...

Milhouses clear-sighted and perceptive report may be found at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse122997.html

Thanks...I think.

Indeed yes. In point-of-fact, the flow is going the other way: the agreement is for IMF to borrow from Saudis. THAT is what is so
very interesting, yes?

Now that you've reposted, I recall that! I'm aging rapidly....

Barb,
I know zip about numismatics. I'm speaking strictly of gold coins. I would assume that low mintage and a high grade coin would be the thing to invest in. But, is an investment like that going to do better than bullion coins when gold moves up??

Larry_A: Regarding your Dec 27th @ 00:16 posting -- "From $300 to $3,000 is a 10-fold change. For the Dollar to depreciate 90% ... is unlikely. Above $3,000/ oz. is dreaming."

Don't make the mistake of confusing the gold price with depreciation and inflation. Here's what I mean: In 1980, gold reached $875 and silver rose to $50. In 1980, total debt in the US stood at $4.5 trillion; today, its soared to $21 trillion -- an increase of 4.7 times. The greatest increase came from within the financial sectors of the economy. In 1980, the financial sectors only had $0.58 trillion of debt; in 1997, they have $6.00 trillion -- an increase of 10.34.

That's why stocks and bonds have increased by such a large margin since the early 1980's -- it's simply financial leveraging. Savings had nothing to do with the increase.

Since total debt increased by 4.7 times, they dollar depreciated by over 80%. We had tremendous credit-inflation. Yet, gold and silver prices went down. Why? I'll answer in a little while.

Thanks for info, will research. EH

For Haulpak

Resending table in "word" saved in "rich text" format - this

worked in Aurator's case -

So far you and one other are having a problem.

As I said separately in email - Id be dumbfounded if anglo went

after newmont - believe they would see it as being overpriced , and

also doubt if they want US presence due risk of restraint of trade

laws and other vagaries of US Dept of Justice. Remember they produce

diamonds platinum manganese coal gold etc etc - If they

go offshore of Africa - it would be Australia I believe - Now BHP

would be a real lulu or maybe western mining.

Why has gold and silver declined, while inflation has roared onward ( especially financial-market inflation ) ? Donald has touched on the answer in the past -- it has to do with market psychology -- in particular trust and confidence.

In his Dec 27th @ 18:33 posting, Ali_A make an excellent point: That citizens in the former Soviet Union and Nazi Germany has great confidence in their money right up to the time of their collapse.

But it's only a matter of time before confidence collapses in an inherently unstable monetary system. The US monetary system is incredibly unstable. The interest and our accumulated debt is sending our country closer to national bankruptcy with each passing day.

When the collapse comes, I believe it will be a Total Collapse of our financial system. Confidence in paper-money and credit-money will vanish. Confidence in gold and silver will soar. Based on the global money supply, and allowing for some of that to disappear thru defaults, a gold price of $30,000 and a silver price of $2,000 seem attainable.

Based on the inflation that is now 4.7 times greater than 1980, gold at 4.7 x $875 = $4112, and silver at 4.7 x $50 = $235 seem reasonable. However, gold and silver never reached their full monetary value in 1980. But these seem to be good minimum price objectives for the precious metals.

BANGKOK, Dec 28 ( AFP ) - Premier Chuan Leekpai has warned that
Thailand may be forced to ask the IMF to relax the terms of its
rescue package as the economic slump further erodes state revenues.
Chuan, who has been in power less than two months, also admitted
that the economic crisis confronting his government was worse than
he had anticipated when he took office, the Bangkok Post said.
"The government might ask the International Monetary Fund ( IMF )
to ease its bailout package requirements, particularly that there be
a surplus budget for fiscal 1997-98," Chuan told the paper in an
exclusive interview.
He said such a request could come after the fund releases the
last instalment of its portion of the 17.2 billion dollar rescue
package in February.
"To make such demands before the money was handed over might
lead to the IMF refusing to release it, damaging Thailand," the
paper said. "It might also send the wrong message to other Asian
countries borrowing from the IMF."
Bangkok must achieve a budget surplus of one percent of gross
domestic product in fiscal 1997-98 under the IMF bailout, which
Chuan and his economic "dream team" have vowed to repect.
But while Chuan said Bangkok would do its best to meet the IMF
targets, he admitted that the goal was becoming more difficult as
the economic climate worsened.
Adherence to the IMF targets has been seen as crucial to
attempts to restore waning confidence in Thailand's embattled
economy.
Chuan warned Thais they may be in for even harder times in the
form of tax increases to make up for dwindling state revenue.
He said his "biggest concern was that the government might not
be able to collect enough revenue to meet expenditure," despite a
round of three budget cuts which shaved 182 billion baht ( 3.9
billion dollars ) off the budget for the current fiscal year
starting last September.
"I would like to tell the people straight that, despite best
efforts to increase revenue and to cut spending, if there is still a
revenue shortfall then it might be necessary to have a tax
increase," he told the Post.
Reining in public spending as tax revenues drop has been the
mainstay of government budgetary policy. But the budget is already
pared to the bone to the extent that medium-term economic growth
could be jeopardised.
The premier conceded that balancing the 800 billion baht ( 17
billion dollar ) budget was "virtually impossble, let alone having a
surplus of some 70 billion baht."
While conceding that the economy was in worse shape than he had
expected when he was appointed last month, Chuan said the "most
shocking thing is about the revenue."
The prime minister also expressed doubts over whether South
Korea would be able to make good its pledge to lend Thailand 500
million dollars as part of the IMF deal. Seoul itself has since been
forced to accept a 60 billion dollar bailout.
He also said Indonesia, which had earlier pledged to contribute
to the Thai bailout, had problems which had forced it to seek its
own rescue package.
But the prime minister was optimistic about the future of the
floundering baht, saying the current level was "unrealistically
low."
The baht, which has lost more than 46 percent of its value
against the dollar since its shock flotation on July 2, is now
hovering around the 47 to the dollar mark onshore.

Here is the IMF document, dated Aug. 1997 from which I took the quote. I find the whole document somewhat confusing. Maybe you can make out the loophole.
http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htm

Mink and diamonds: Nervous Asian customers lose interest

FINANCIAL TIMES, TUESDAY DECEMBER 23 1997

By Gary Mead, Hilary Barnes and Kenneth Gooding

The vagaries of Asia's financial markets are undermining

demand for furs and diamonds in the region. Wholesale fur

buyers have shunned the December sale at Europe's leading

fur auction in Copenhagen, while south-east Asian demand

for polished diamonds has nearly disappeared.

Nervous buyers from South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong -

the world's leading centres for turning raw pelts into

clothing - eschewed the Copenhagen Fur Centre auction.

Prices for mink and fox fur slumped by as much as 20 per

cent from the last auction in September.

"Even worse, almost half the skins on offer were not sold", said Erik Neergaard, the Fur Centre's sales director.

"Prices at the September auctions were very high. This

month buyers only bought what they needed here and now

and not for stock."

South Korea and Japan each account for 13 per cent of

world demand for farmed mink pelts, and 10 per cent and 7

per cent respectively for fox.

China takes 10 per cent of farmed mink and 22 per cent of

fox, though Russia is still the overall biggest consumer of raw pelts, taking 22 per cent of mink and 30 per cent of fox.

Diamond sales have also been savaged, according to

figures published yesterday by De Beers, the South African

group. Demand for polished diamonds in south-east Asia,

which in 1996 comprised 17 per cent of the global market,

has virtually dried up.

Retail diamond jewellery sales in Japan - with 25 per cent

of the global total, Japan is the second-largest market after the US - are down 20 per cent because of a lack of

consumer confidence and the weakness of the yen.

De Beers' London-based Central Selling Organisation

reported in August record sales of $2.88bn ( 1.74bn ) for

the first six months. Then, second half sales fell by 16 per cent to $1.76bn. This left the year total at $4.64bn

compared with the record $4.834bn in 1996.

Fur traders, at least, are optimistic they can weather the Far Eastern storms. Mr Neergaard said he expected demand

would pick up at the spring auctions. "Generally speaking,

the market is all right."

to all sportsfans

So far 4 people have had problems - problem solved with one

by redoing in "rich text" format - have tried this with remaining

3 people. I wonder what will happen ?? Im think I'll go to bed now.....

Rick Ackerman regularly contributes market analysis to the Sunday San Francisco Examiner and has also written numerous times for
Barron's. Presently, he is bullish on GOLD, and VERY bearish on common stocks.

He observes The result has been the creation of a global credit bubble that is about to collapse and take the stock market with it. The size of the bubble is the reason why the market will not
return to health with the 10 to 20 percent correction that
nearly everyone on Wall Street seems to be hoping for.

Somewhere down the road, when share prices have been cut in half, the excess of the credit system will be cited as the cause of the collapse.

Most likely, gold stocks, bullion and long-term Treasuries will be the best place to be, along with some foreign debt instruments. But don't count on being able to shift your money when the trumpets sound, for there will be no time then.

Detailed comprehensive report at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/ackerman122697.html

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/sup0997/10sdr.htm

Vronskys point is no doubt well taken; the thought was that they were in business to help those who borrowed too much, too frequently...not join the club!

So, if they have provisions for borrowing, and they do ( including an interest rate schedule which was posted some time ago ) , then with regards to the Saudis, we do well to attend to the person with the 'national culture-character' knowledge.

As for the prohibitions against such practices ( gold as collateral ) surely it is a varient of D. Zanucks comment that Oral contracts are not worth the paper theyre written on!.

The "shot that's heard around to world" ( the one that kills the stock-market bull ) is likely to come on the first trading day ( Jan. 2 ) or the second trading day ( Jan. 5 ) of the new year.

Speculators have been loading up their long positions in stocks and bonds -- of course, waiting for the all-but-certain "New Year" rally that comes every January.

There's one problem, mutual fund investors are pulling their money out of equity-funds for the last 3 weeks. A "run on the mutual funds" has started. Also, foreigners have stepped up their sales of US Treasuries during the past 2 weeks ( over $20 billion in sales ) .

These have been 2 of the primary props under the bull market in stocks and bonds. When speculators find out that the January buying is not taking place, the "bull's excretion will hit the fan." It wouldn't want to be on the floor of the NYSE during the first few days of January.

tsclaw
If you know zip about numismatics...You're like a sheep waiting to be fleeced. Stick with what you know and understand. In my 30+ years as a numismatist and coin & bullion dealer...have talked to too many that lost their britches without having educated themselves before jumping in.
take care Barb

Traders are bullish stocks. The value of a NYSE Seat traded at a record $1.75 million last week. NYSE Seat prices also traded at record levels just days before the 1929 and 1987 crashes. It's been a good contrary indicator.

Carl: Thx for providing the source document. However, I gratefully deline your challenge for me to find a loophole... a much easier task would be to audit the BOJ's Balance Sheet in Japanese characters ( :- ) )

Amen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for the advice. I sincerely appreciate the straight forward answer
considering the business your in.

I disagree with you, Puetz. The reason is that the final denouement
of this financial collapse will be a remonetization of gold. A 100%
cover would currently require a price of about $5,000 per oz.

You are generally correct
and you got a good understanding
of Yeltsin's politics.

On Wednesday, the Moslem fast of Ramadan begins.

Also, can we construct a timeline please...
The official cutting loose of the SDR from its historical tie with gold was announced in Aug 1997, right?

What was the spot price of gold in August?

You are not correct, more than that,
you got no idea what you are talking
about.

Nothing personal, strictly business...

Who really knows, right? But this is my take. The flow of central
bank gold should slow in 1998. One analyst thinks that most of the
gold sold in 1997 came from fire sales by the Dutch who were rushing
to beat a European deadline on gold sales. He thinks no more gold
sales will come out of Europe in 1998. The supply deficit in 1997 was
between 1500-1800 tons and will be larger in 1998--maybe 2000 tons.
This should be large enough to overcome remaining flows from central
banks and start the price up. The rally will be slow at first because
small central banks outside Europe will sell into the rally and some
producers will continue forward selling. However the resistance will
not take the price to new lows and overall the price will rise to a point where short covering gets going. The short position is about 8000 tons
so once this process gets going, we could have a sharp move upwards.

As for mine closures, it takes time and money to close a mine but about
50% of current production doesn't even cover cash production costs at these prices. As the year unfolds and if prices don't rapidly recover,
more mines will be closed.

Actually, the skepticism concerning this rally is bullish. Indicates to
me the market is totally washed-out.

When Cleveland was inaugurated for his second term in March
1893, the country hovered on the brink of financial panic. Six
years of depression in the trans-Mississippi West, the decline of
foreign trade after the enactment of the McKinley tariff, and an
abnormally high burden of private debt were disquieting features
of the situation. Most attention was centred, however, on the
gold reserve in the federal Treasury. It was assumed that a
minimum reserve of $100,000,000 was necessary to assure
redemption of government obligations in gold. When on April
21, 1893, the reserve fell below that amount, the psychological
impact was far-reaching. Investors hastened to convert their
holdings into gold; banks and brokerage houses were
hard-pressed; and many business houses and financial institutions
failed. Prices dropped, employment was curtailed, and the nation
entered a period of severe economic depression that continued
for more than three years.

DEJ- I agree with you 100%, no one knows for sure but that is the best
guess for now and I am playing it that way. PLAYING HELL I AM VERRY SERIOUS.

Tally Ho

I think we both agree that there is going to be a strong gold rally. It is the timing that is in question. You mentioned that Europe will not be selling much in 1998, but what about loaning? It seems loaning dumps as much gold on the market as selling would. You are right that the deficit of production supply to demand will have to catch up with the market. Also, the market is definitely washed out. The scenario you describe sounds like it may take at least 3-4 months? to develop.

I hope you are right and the market does rally soon. There are a lot of people I would like to tell "I told you so." Thanks for sharing your opinions. Most posters seem scared to predict the market, unless it is something ridiculous like $8000. I do a lot of lurking on this site but not much posting. I enjoy peoples predictions and reasoning the most. Facts and numbers are good to see also.

I thought the date was April, 1978 for the end of gold's role in the IMF transactions.

http://www.tiac.net/users/hcunn/rus/sec58-eng.html

The 2nd Gold mining movie just started on cable?

"Lost Treasure of the Dos Santos"
staring Cathey Lee

A sure sign that Gold has seen it's low!

the best i can find out, the supply of dollars is 5.3 trillion +/-. the u.s. gold supply reported at approx 261 million oz. for a target potential divide 5.3 trill by 261 mill and i get about $20,000. this may never happen completely, but it gives a market supply/demand math.
posibility.

ASIA/EUROPE
SPOT PRICE December 26, 1997
02:33AM New York Time
Timezone Equivalents

. Bid Ask Change from New York close
GOLD 295.90 296.60 +0.85
SILVER 6.39 6.42 +0.03
PLATINUM 391.00 399.00 +14.00
PALLADIUM 196.00 199.00 +1.80
http://www.kitco.com/gold.live.html

Paraphrasing from the first issue of Life

Magazine, November 23, 1936...."35 miles south

of Louisville...Treasury Department concentrates

$10,000,000,000 gold hoard...half the world's

supply...enemy, landing on east coast, must fight

its way across 600 wild rough miles to reach

Ft Knox...roof and walls of the storehouse are

of steel and cement so thick that no aerial bomb

( 1936 ) now known can pierce them. Looters must

get over a reinforced steel fence that can be

electrified, cross an open moat under withering

machine gun fire from the pill boxes at each

corner of the building. To get into the gold

vault, looters must cut through barricades of

solid stainless steel which give off poison gas

under the flame of an acetylene torch...as a

final safeguard, the vault can be completely

flooded...weakest link is the gate and moat

bridge which connect with the

Mike, your assessment of Russia is totally off the mark. You are writing off Russia for generation to come due to "there was nothing good in the national soul or intellect to allow it to understand, in any way shape or form, what it was doing. This nation is a doomed people. , etc. etc."

What a total misunderstanding of Russia and their people. Mind you that I have no interest in boosting Russian image - lived under their occupation and sphere of influence so there is no love here, however, if you talk about nations with soul and intellect Russia will have to take somewhere close to the top.

Yes, the move toward "free markets" was totally butchered, however, dont put the main blame on Russians, take your aim much more on foreign advisors, capital, governments, investors who thought that the best and fasted way how to bring Russia into international community is to throw away everything what was in place and replace it as soon as possible with "free market" principles despite a significant reluctance on Russias part to move so fast. Dont you remember all "experts" from the US, including our Billy C. boy pushing Russias "modernization" and move toward free market and society based on western democratic principles, bankers setting up condition,etc. In a process of doing so this move totally destroyed any social safety-nets for majority of Russians and pushed them into deeper poverty, hunger, and unemployment than they ever experienced under communist regime. Not very good PR for a free market economy.

To add salt into injury, now, when Russia economy is in shambles, international community totally wrote off Russians from any decision making in international arena ( here you touch a very sensitive issue - Russian soul and their feeling and pride for "mother Russia" ) . Dissatisfaction with current trend between average Russians does not surprise me at all and resurrection of pro-leftist sentiment is quite understandable "they at least fed them"

Russia a black hole of Europe? Hardly so. Remember that Russia is still a rich source of natural resources and as nation they do have a "soul" and willing to do anything to bring back the great mother Russia. Unfortunately, failed move toward "free society" opens the door for nationalistic elements and anti west sentiments. Mind you that this sentiment was cultivated for centuries, because it was always countries on the west borders which threatened "mother Russia". That was the main part for a fierce negotiation for post WWII settlement where Russia needed Easter block countries to serve as a buffer between Russia and the West. Well thats gone and Russia again does not feel too safe.

Its not over, dont write Russia off. BTW, for centuries Russia excelled in international politics and diplomacy and they usually "out-negotiated" their counterparts. Quite frankly, I dont like whats happening in Russia at all because I think it may stir events across the world very negative way.

I've been sitting at this desk too long, trying to keep three oranges
in play...I'm going to take a long walk and quietly think for a bit...
Take care my friend.
BBL

Why would an intelligent individual like yourself be concerned with prognostications re:gold 5 years out. Anyone who claims to have a direct line to the future is a charlatan & should be diregarded. I think that most honest analysts, with good track records, would tell you that the crystal ball starts to cloud over after 5 weeks, & after 5 months is almost opaque.

If you divide the $10,000,000,000 gold hoard

that Life estimates was being moved into Ft Knox

from Denver, Philadelphia, and New York, by the

market price of gold at the time ( early 1937 )

you get a total of 286,779,466. ounces. At today's

London gold price of $296.10 that would equal

$84,915,400,057.

From other sources I get a figure of 261,800,000

ounces as an approximate figure for the present US

gold hoard...this would mean a loss of about 26

million ounces since 1936, assuming the original

dollar figure of $10,000,000,000 was correct.

Any comments on any of these figures?

My intention regarding Russia was not to offend anyone. I stand by my assessment. As to "bad advisors," a nation or a person is known by the company it keeps. Russian Communism has so devastated the once great intellect of the Russian people that it will take generations to recover. These people have been ideologically and spiritually maimed. In a world with diluted values, this is a detriment that will not be overcome for a while. I hope, for the sake of the humanity of the Russian people, that I am wrong. Nothing I see can convince me otherwise at this time.

The devastating financial debacle in Asia is again spotlighting the basic flaw of the current dollar-based international monetary system -- IT OPERATES PRIMARILY FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE U.S. FINANCIAL ELITES. This is the mechanism that enables the U.S. to run huge balance of payments deficits year in and year out, but severely penalizes any other nation doing the same. How much longer will foreigners continue to allow the U.S. to import $250 billion more in goods and services each year than it exports?

It is inconceivable to me that the rest of the world in general and Asia in particular will tolerate this system of legalized theft much longer. The timing is uncertain, but any change in the existing dollar-based international monetary system will be VERY BULLISH for the yellow.

A better figure would be reached using the US monetary base. Gives a gold dollar price of about $1900.

What do you think that Greenspan, Rubin & the CB's will be doing while gold starts it's incredible ascent to 3-5000$? Do you think they will just passively stand by & wring their hands, while their governments are ruined & an incredible transfer of wealth occurs to a miniscule % of their citizens? With just 1% of their gold reserves they can control the price of gold. I firmly believe in gold as a currency of last resort but think we will be lucky to see $500, let alone $5000 gold in the next 5 years.

Mike, don't take me wrong, there is no post about Russia which would offend me - I grew up not to like them ( as would anybody who was under oppression of foreign nation ) . However, I think that you are underestimating how events in Russia may influence international arena ( in financial markets and politics ) It can become one more "trouble spots" which we will have to deal with and return to Cold War will not help financial markets, so more if the Russia tries to close alliances unfavorable to the West and "stir" the trouble around the world to her advantage.

Lurker777: I just knew that platinum was a steal at 345. a week or so ago. Gold will be next my friends......

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Floor/3046/

Does anybody here know what Palladium is used for. I saw a French proof set of coins yesterday which included gold, platinum, silver and palladium. I keep seeing the price of Palladium posted here but haven't got a clue as to what it is used for or why it would be traded with silver and gold. Thanks.

Be it PM's, oil, currencies or other future prices - its here. All you have to do is page up/down and hit the right buttons. http://quotewatch.com/exchanges/nymex.html

Miro, excellent post, I could not answer better that you did.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------
Mike Sheller,

You did not want to offend, but you did.
You think you know Russia, because you
"know" Russian Communism. I bet you don't
know even this one. You had to live
under Russian Communism in order to have
right to talk about it.

If you "can not see", book the ticket to Moscow,
fly there, stay there for 1 year and "see". Then
you can educate others.

Otherwise, don't feed people over here
with nonsense...

You better concentrate on what you know,
so we can learn from you on your proffessional subject.

Puetz: Did anyone catch the recent figure on the average earnings for stock BROKERS in the US, I beleive it was $2 MILLION last year.
IMHO this one of the reasons that anaysts and brokers are PUSHING
stocks onto the public masses, promising 30, 40 or 50% returns a year.
The Brokers earnings are OBCENE, when compared to almost any other profession ( maybee lawyers excluded ) .
$2 million could pay the salary of a good CA for maybee 20 years.
OK boys, lets keep that CASH BUBBLE from bursting.........

thanx, you're right. and it is good enough. i just took the 2 potential parameters even though i have doubts about accessability of the gold
at this time. just a measure.cheers.

Schultz

Here is a little bit of research I did a few years ago ( actually formed part of a draft prospectus for a Precious Metals fund in NZ ) on Palladium, I hope it helps

P a l l a d i u m
Introduction
Palladium ( Pd ) atomic number 46, melting point 1,552 C, is the second most abundant of the platinum group metals accounting for almost 40% of platinum group metals reserves. Palladium is softer than platinum and less resistant to wear and tear, when alloyed with silver it becomes much tougher and wear resistant and gives an excellent electrical contact material. When alloyed with platinum and gold for jewellery, the result is known as white gold. Palladium use is characterised by its ability to take up many times its own weight of hydrogen, it is used as a catalyst in hydrogenation, and with platinum in catalytic converters in cars,
Industrial Uses - Consumption
Industrial demand for palladium is dominated by the dental and electronics industries. Together these two applications account for about 75% of total consumption. In its alloys with other platinum group metals, palladium is in increasing demand as an automotive catalyst. Dental Because of its resistance to corrosion, palladium is a substitute for gold in dental prosthetics.
Electronics
Because palladium has excellent electrical properties, it is used in electrical contacts, temperature thermocouple devices, resistors and capacitors and sensors. In electronics, the major application for palladium is in the manufacture of multi-layer ceramic capacitors. It is also used in the manufacture of electronic contacts in the telecommunications industry. In 1993 the electronic demand increased by 5% to 1.9 Moz, Japan accounted for most of this increase.
Automotive Catalyst
Of the three platinum group metals, palladium showed the strongest
growth in the manufacture of autocatalysts. Approximately 20% of all palladium is used in automotive catalysts. Demand for palladium rose 50% in 1993 to 825,000 oz, with most of this increase occurring in the US as a result of more stringent regulation of emissions. Future growth in demand for palladium in in the automotive industry could be moderated in an imbalance of supply and demand resulting in a higher price, which would in turn negate its economic advantage.

Crusty thanks for the data RTF rules
Salty

In 1994 the CIA Director informed Congress that in a poll in Russia in response to the question "Who controls Russia?" a plurality of 23% responded "The Mafia", 22% responded with "No one", 19% responded "I don't know", and only 14% responded "President Yeltsin". President Yeltsin stated that Russia had developed into "the superpower of crime". FBI Director identified the Russian criminal gangs as "the greatest
long-term threat to the security of the United States." These statements were caused by the fact that a new monstrous social system had developed in Russia - Mafiocracy.

These links are just a few turned up in a search of the Internet.

http://www.west.net/~wwmr/mafia.htm

http://www.konanykhine.com/

http://www.konanykhine.com/mafiocracy.htm

Mike Sheller, your 11:23 - wrong. When you talk about "doomed people" and "slaves", dont forget simple facts. Russia is still military superpower. How "doomed people" could create it? When you see next report on CNN or wherever about next trouble with "Mir" space station, have you ever asked yourself, why this 11-year-old station with 8 year planned lifetime is still the only one of its kind up there? Doomed people? You wrote, "I know a little of the Russian mentality" - how little is it? Do you know Russian culture? Literature, art, science? Can you compare, what USA was doing to West Europe in general and Germany in particular after WWII to what is happening now with Russia? Do you think, USA government or business wants Russia to be strong again? Who advise "shock therapy" methods to Russia? Good for Poland, should be good for the biggest country in the world with nucks all around as well?

Lester Thurow on C-Span talking about Future Economic Trends right now

Thanks for the data.

Schultz: re palladium uses:

I found lots of links using the inference find searcher. http://www.inference.com/ifind/index.html

This is one of the most interesting, from an University in England.

http://www.shef.ac.uk/uni/academic/A-C/chem/web-elements/nofr-index/Pd.html

I also found but didn't include a couple of links from people alleging that they'd had a severe systemic allergy to it, similar to nickle allergy. So I'm wondering if one of its uses will soon be fuel for megabuck lawsuits? ;- )

Schultz re palladium:

Found links using this parallel search engine. http://www.inference.com/ifind/index.html

This is one of the most interesting, from an University in England.

http://www.shef.ac.uk/uni/academic/A-C/chem/web-elements/nofr-index/Pd.html

I also found but didn't include a couple of links from people alleging that they'd had a severe systemic allergy to it, similar to nickle allergy. So I'm wondering if one of its uses will soon be fuel for megabuck lawsuits? ;- )

There is serious organized crime in Russia, no doubt about it.

I would also say that it is a real threat to Russian economy
and society. The problem is there, I agree..

Now, give me an SPECIFIC EXAMPLE of RUSSIAN MAFIA TREAT to the
United States, but please do not make references to the movies...

Wow! An deluge of data!

Schultz re palladium:

Hmmm. Sometimes these links from the Kitco's short page don't seem to want to go through. So I'll move the search engine link to the end.

This is one of the most links interesting, from an University in England.

http://www.shef.ac.uk/uni/academic/A-C/chem/web-elements/nofr-index/Pd.html

Search engine: http://www.inference.com/ifind/index.html

I also found but didn't include a couple of links from people alleging that they'd had a severe systemic allergy to it, similar to nickle allergy. So I'm wondering if one of its uses will soon be fuel for megabuck lawsuits? ;- )

TO ALL:
Did you know.....
In 1830 to 1840 in Russia, pots and pans ( yes like you cook in ) were made out of PLATINUM.

AND...........

At one time ALUMINUM was worth more than GOLD!

...of links sometimes short circuiting from the Kitco site? Maybe I'm not holding my keyboard right? Anyway, if you can ever read the damned things, Schultz, there are links to other metals facts as well.

Sorry, please accept correction to my last post:

.. the SPECIFIC EXAMPLE OF RISSIAN MAFIA THREAT...

An astounding particle of thought.

The key to financial independence is to know who will win the hidden battle between the U.S. dollar and gold.

International Econo-political analyst shares his critique of Kutyn and Milhouse financial opinions of the Southeast Asian currency crisis, stock market meltdown and crumbling banking systems vis--vis George Soros "REFLEXIVITY" THEORY. Truly an intellectual erudite analytical work. See:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus122997.html

Here is one: http://www.cbn.org/news/stories/sovmaifa.html

In this article, http://www.konanykhine.com/deals.htm , FBI director Louis Freeh calls the Russian mafia, "the greatest long-term threat to the security of the United States".

Granted Louis Freeh is not Sherlock Holmes, but he represents the current administration.

Leaving for Russia -pronto- to search for old pots and pans.

American Dollar-One direction this year 1998 .Down.Away to catch foolish money.

There is no doubt about the strength and nobility of Russian history, and culture, nor the acheivements of the great minds among the Russian people. Unfortunately Lenin was not one of them, nor the succession of philosophical "hooligans" who followed. I wish only the best for the Russian people. They have been betrayed for far too long, but are as much to blame as their leaders and slavemasters, be they government officials or mafioso. It is an incontrovertible fact that, for such an importanbt world society, their ills are, at present, gargantuan. I lay the blame for this squarely at the feet of Russian Communism. No, I have not lived under this system, and am glad for not having done so. I am as qualified to comment on the philosophical, cultural, metaphysical, and psychological implications of statism gone wild as anyone. One does not have to live a philosophy to assess it with the logical mind, and observe its unfortunate
consequences in others.That said, there is always hope for humanity where denial is replaced with honest self knowledge and careful reflection. I have not seen any hints of that coming from Russia for the last several years. I am sorry.

Jack: Thanks for the futures site!

Some on this thread argue that gold will never move big time because the CBs won't allow it. But gold soared 20 fold during the 1970s despite massive CB efforts to keep it down.

I've said it before and will say it again. If gold is cheap enough and private investor demand takes off, CB selling will do nothing more than slow the ascent somewhat. And gold as is cheap today relative to financial assets as it has ever been. All we need is the investor demand.

It is the lack of investor demand and the pathetic financial weakness of most gold mining companies that have allowed the western CBs and the shorts allied with them to call the shots these last few years.

This prediction gains tremendous credibility after you read the credentials of its author:

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

If we go back to an earlier section of this paper, we observed that after 1971, when the artificial pressure was lifted from gold prices that prices advanced to a peak of 24 times the old price and settled around approximately 10 times the old price. No two events in any market develop precisely the same, but just as an
exercise, if something similar happens this time, gold prices might peak near $8,400.00, and settle around $3,500.00 an ounce.

The remote possibility that these numbers can be correct, is enough evidence to make it easy to understand why the central bankers and high government officials around the world want to denigrate, denounce, discard, disown and dislike gold, plus keep prices low. It makes one want to take time to consider what the implications of anything remotely resembling this happening might be. The last time gold had been held down artificially for 37 years. This time, so far, it has only been 17, which may lessen the next rise. On the other hand we have asset markets that have reached such lofty levels, where no less an authority than the FED Chairman has described the situation, as long as a year ago, as "Irrational Exuberance". So who can tell? Let's not lose sight, while we are pondering the question, of the trillions and trillions of fiat megabyte dollars, yen, marks, and what have you, that are whizzing around the world electronically every minute of every hour of every day. They have to end up buying something, and it might just be gold one of these days.

Part II of his mind-blowing essay is located at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/jmiller122097.html

james@1723-----

really have enjoyed your 2 to 3 posts!
hope one day you can attack the message
instead of the messenger.

try adding to, instead of detracting from......

potty training is offered for free....bring your
own diapers.....

Mike Sheller-Russia will bring down the West in time only for the sake of the Aquarius age that is upon us.Happy Trails Away to see the end of Taurus Rule.

Mike Sheller Once I stopped laughing - your 09:03 - Castenada on the KonTiki- I appreciated the wisdom in your post.

I want one of them T-shirts!

When philosopher is sorry, I can understand that.

The corruption of the Russian government is profound; see for instance http://www.konanykhine.com/checkmate/experts.htm and see previous posts. The reduced or failed delivery of Platinum and Palladium to Japanese businesses has been the cause of at least one spike in prices this year. How much of that was due to ineptness and how much to corruption? A larger problem is the control and sale of weapons systems by the Russian mafiacracy to dangerous terrorist states and their front groups. This discussion group once discussed "exogenous" events which might impact the price of precious and strategic metals. The Russian soul was corrupted by 70 years of black market activity as they evaded the central planners in Moscow. Now the most violent and "entreprenurial" of the black marketeers are running large section of the Russian economy. They are also expanding operations abroad. The Europeans have a good understanding of the threat: http://www.acsp.uic.edu/OICJ/PUBS/CJE/060305.htm

The Nikkei just opened up 45 points ( +0.30% ) ... this is exactly like it started Friday, before it plummeted 495 points.

It has been suggested that anyone who hasn't lived through what Russians have lived through shouldn't comment on the failings of that nation. Hogwash. Should we now cease denigrating Nazi Germany because most all of us weren't there? Here are a few snippets of Russia in the '90s from the satellite dish:
1. A young Russian worker asked after the fall of Gorbechov why he wasn't helping with the crucial wheat harvest replies, "We're free now--we don't have to work."
2. While Americans are being told food assistance was needed to help the fledgling Russian democracy through the first winter a video was shown of the Russian potato harvest. Mud kept machinery off the fields so Russians were told that they could help harvest by hand and keep half of what they picked. I saw only middle aged women and old men out in the rain on that clip.
3. While bread and soup lines have been long in recent winters, lines for non-necessities have been equally as long. Said one Russian in line for hours, "All I care about is my cigarettes and vodka." He got several cartons and bottles of each for his troubles.
4. Russian occupation of Afghanistan 1979-1989 left a country formerly of 15 million with a population of ten million. One million were dead and four million were refugees in exile. In that conflict Russians used helicopters to salt Afghan paths and villages with toys boobytrapped with explosives with the intent of maiming large numbers of Afghan children, which they did. My source for this is National Geographic Magazine.

Need I go into what Russians did to Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Chechnya, etc, etc, in the last decade? I have problems with some of the things the US has done in recent years too, but the Russians are in a class for themselves for shear disgrace.

Amazed the heck out of me but, this is 100% true...

Aurator: You can get one of those T-shirts at the following URL. BTW, hear tell that the man wearing one attracts so many women that he has to beat them off with a stick ( :- ) )
http://www.gold-eagle.com/ClarityResources/Main.html

I show Japan down 130!

It's just like FridaY!!!! As I speak the Nikkei is already hammered down 105 points ( -0.71% ) ! Can any rational and reasonably intelligent analyst not believe that a good percent of the vast Japanese savings will SOON find their way into the gold refuge?!

from kitco.com post of 9/27/97:

"When the 'tent' collapses

it will not be the center-post

that goes first;

it will be the side-posts,

and even the stakes.

"For, as 'Asian Tigers'

shake, shudder, & quake:

... "

Gusto Oro-You Know nothing about the heart of people and nations particularly Russia .Away to see silence and truth.

Speedy Speed: Sorry I can only type with 2 fingers, and the Nikkei is being pummeled... not down 176 points ( -1.2% ) to 14626. It's falling faster than Friday when it settled down nearl 500.

NIKKEI -1.4%

Mike Sheller: Probably, my previous post was too emotional. I simply can not stand when the whole nation is attacked - "doomed", "slaves", one can continue depending on domestic situation. Sorry for emotions.
Gusto Oro: Please, do not mix communism and russians - not the same - at least in real world, not in movies. And when you count Estonia, Latvia, etc. please, do not forget about Hiroshima and Vietnam

Yes, it's true! The long awaited, had to happen, "GET REAL GET GOLD" T shirt ( the "Official" T Shirt of Goldbugs everywhere ) is available NOW, and only at GOLD EAGLE! Every Goldbug should own one! Think of the conversations it will stimulate at supermarket checkout lines, at important business meetings, on the golf course, or on the floor of your local stock exchange! And a tiny fraction of every T shirt sale will go toward buying one for Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin. Imagine them barbecuing, knocking down beer, and just hanging out next summer in their "GET REAL GET GOLD" T's!

Show the world how you feel about BIG YELLOW! Get your very own "GET REAL GET GOLD" T shirt today! Only at Gold Eagle.

FINANCIAL COLLAPSE: THE DEATH SPIRAL

Internationally acclaimed financial analyst shares his latest brilliance with the GOLD-EAGLE readership. A few cardinal excerpts:

We are currently witnessing one of the greatest events in
world history, a total and complete economic collapse.

...Korean Banks have borrowed billions of U.S. dollars. The collapse of the won has resulted in major foreign exchange losses for the banks. Bankrupt borrowers and large foreign exchange losses will lead to the failure of most banks in Korea.

The IMF cannot alter the financial collapse of South Korea. Every
dollar lent by the IMF will be used to bail out a foreign lender. That is all. It replaces private debt with public debt. It does not alter the financial strength of Koreans' Bankrupt Companies.

Japan is in the same boat... only the Nippon boat is FAR LARGER! KUTYNS full report at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn122997.html

I have a great deal of respect for your thoughts. Your heart is in the right place.

Of the Russia's my friend your thoughts are too Western in gauge and therefore lack clarity.

The difference between the USSR and the USA is near nil, exact opposites, diametrically opposed and yet each nothing more than the other turned inside out. Too much bread is as evil as is too little. The difference is those without are still hungry. Those that are not know nothing of the pangs of hunger.

Two magnets without lips or vocal chords to speak and peak with each other. We need leaders that can bring them together without any false pretense. Thus far the men and women on each side who are responsible are those who I despise.

Cancer in an over fed White House is no different than that which eats caviar while the people have nothing, not even the serving plate to lick.

DELPHI: You need never apologize for deeply felt human emotions. I am half Russian, though born in America. My heart bleeds for all people who must undergo the worst vicissitudes of the human condition. In the end we must all discover the principles that make for enlightened living, and find the discipline and will to see these revelations through. I am as weak a sinner as any, but I must look at things as they are. Forgive me if I seemed too harsh. I hope I am proved wrong.

-260 POINTS -1.8% TO 14542

Vronsky-Should all markets collapse?Is there joy in this ?or must Gold rise to prove some group or persons right?Why are Gold soothsayers waiting for the world to end in different mind traps ?Away to find Greenspan

1997 net private investment for gold will be 264 tons. That ties with 1993 for highest total of the past ten years. ( per Van Eck Gold Stock Letter )

Poorboys ( Death@of@The@net ) : My dear fellow, normally I would not dignify such a thoughtless remark. But since you are relatively new here, I will comment. You totally and perhaps convenietly mis-interprete the reasons for the sharing of knowledge and breaking market news. Allow me to put it in even more simple language. Do you think the diagnosting doctor "enjoys" informing the patient that he has cancer... and may die if he does NOT take immediate remdial action?!

I don't know if you get it off the net or not, but Nikkei.net is woefully inadequate.
Thanks

Mr. Mick: http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Vronsky-Yes thank you for not putting the coffin top abruptly on my ideas ,but I have been Dignified.Away to see Gold and Silver have a Fall Death..P.S. not before a surprising February rise AMEN.

While not yet extremely popular, according to a colleague of mine who is a Russian immigrant who had recently returned to Russia, communism
and socialism are gaining renewed credibility among many people because of their impovershed status since the demise of the USSR. He told me that the Communist Party is becoming ever more popular and that this is why Yeltsin is changing. Thoughts.

vronsky@1926------

absolutely splendiferous! excellent.

the vehicle, with a driver........

switching to auto-pilot-----mr flux take the helm...eya sir ( haggis ) ---
duodec with feathers locked on the rising sun.....FIRE....direct
hit.....target north america.....eya sir ( haggis ) .....FIRE.....


where swings the pendulum now? for whom does the bell toll?
the dogs of doom are howling low.....oooooowwwwwwwwwwwww--zeppelin-----

cherokee---;----balanced-between-the-periphery------

Rick Ackerman regularly contributes market analysis to the Sunday San Francisco Examiner and has also written numerous times for Barron's. Presently, he is bullish on GOLD, and VERY bearish on common stocks.

He observes The result has been the creation of a global credit bubble that is about to collapse and take the stock market with it. The size of the bubble is the reason why the market will not
return to health with the 10 to 20 percent correction that
nearly everyone on Wall Street seems to be hoping for.

Somewhere down the road, when share prices have been cut in half, the excess of the credit system will be cited as the cause of the collapse.

Most likely, gold stocks, bullion and long-term Treasuries will be the best place to be, along with some foreign debt instruments. But don't count on being able to shift your money when the trumpets sound, for there will be no time then.

Detailed comprehensive report at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/ackerman122697.html

Donald: Net investment demand will have to climb to at least a thousand tons a year in order to trigger the kind of "CB Proof" move I am talking about. Real physical gold demand, not paper gold.

Sanwa Bank To Take 12% Stake In Thai
Bank
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Sanwa Bank plans to buy a 12% stake in Siam
Commercial Bank Public Co., a major Thai commercial bank, for $100
million. The Japanese city bank hopes to strengthen its business in
Thailand, believing the country's growth potential remains strong despite
the current financial crisis, bank sources said.

Sanwa expects to finalize the deal on Monday, with the acquisition date
to be fixed later.

Siam Commercial Bank, which is 27% owned by the Thai royal family,
is the fourth largest bank in the country in terms of assets with some 500
branches.

Sanwa plans to set up a Japanese corporate division at the bank and
transfer staff there. The section will offer services including baht
deposits, loans and accounts to Sanwa clients operating in Thailand. It
also plans to provide local business advice to Japanese clients.

Your question to Vronsky; should all markets collapse? Let me answer that for myself with a yes. An explanation is warranted. Earlier I posted an item about a three year depression that started in 1893. America has a history of periodic hard times since 1776. Hard times in 1837, 1873, 1893, 1907, 1929. Failure is the best possible teacher and America prospered greatly after each by learning from those errors. Depressions build personal character and self confidence. Someone decided in 1929 that we should never have another one and America has grown soft and lazy from the lack of self discipline. It is apparent at every level of government and all levels of society. I hear of kids being given BMW's for graduation presents from high school. Drugs are everywhere. Credit is abused; every whim requires instant gratification. Everyone is "entitled" to whatever they fancy. I know that you have seen all the signs yourself.
We need hard times for national therapy. The sooner the better; or we will end up in decline no different than what happened to Rome.

Your my idol man...

Brother will you bring me some silver,
will ya bring me a little gold,
What will you bring to keep me
to keep me from the gallows pole?

donald_a---

absolutely!!!!!!!!!! agree 100%. time to weed; ) out the
weine wackers....it is a NATURAL PROCESS OF NATURE----

expansion.......contraction......

let the games begin.....where's that lawyer, bureaucrat, banker,
------------------------professional politicos, etc.... ( tort is ok )

The Wall-Sometime and in overtime we hear the kids scream "We don't need Education" Why? The Brainwashing is here and everywhere from the waves that jump the arenas in the sky ,to net forecasters that live in fantasy.Away to find music that is real.

Donald A: Your comments about the lack of discipline in America today apply only to the top 20% of the population who have prospered mightily in recent years.

For the bottom 80% it is another story entirely. Declining real wages, lack of job security, the need for 2 incomes to make ends meet, etc. These people do not generally have large investment portfolios and have not gained much from the stock market boom. Many are heavily in debt and only a few paychecks away from real financial problems.

Bullion off a bit on access. A weak Japanese stock market is not good for the yellow. Tends to strengthen the dollar and encourage the yen carry trade

Drugs are everywhere. Your line not mine. I have to travel to find fresh, clean grown peyote.

My wife and I were both poor as kids and both grew up in the Depression. We have many friends our age or older who had the same experience. We all agree that the Depression was both the worst and best thing that had ever happened to us. Its kind of hard to understand that when you are in it. Later you realize how it has changed you for the better.

Donald: It doesn't get any simpler than that. Except, perhaps to say: It is a renewal of perspective...... And, Hotdamn; are we in need of same. I only hope it is not too late.

Too bad the Russians didn't back their currency with gold then kept digging for more.

I can testify on your behalf. You are at the keyboard more than any of us, and making sense; no time to travel to Cactus Junction between posts.

Donald_A: YOUR Comment: "Depression was both the worst and best thing that had ever happened to us. It's kind of hard to understand that when you are in it. Later you realize how it has changed you for the better."

The Spaniards have a very succinct expression for your very profound wisdom based upon hard-earned experience:

"No hay que por bien no venga"

But although the country functioned again, the savings were never restored, nor were the values of hard work and decency that had accompanied the savings. There was a different temper in the country, a temper that Hitler would later exploit with diabolical talent. Thomas Mann wrote: The market woman who without batting an eyelash demanded a hundred million for an egg lost the capacity for surprise. And nothing that has happened since has been insane or cruel enough to surprise her.

The country was Germany. And the path back was filled with unspeakable horrors.

That government governs best, which governs least.

Donald_A: Another thought leaps to mind in regards to your expressed wisdom:

If there is no pain, nothing good is born.

- A Sioux Indian proverb

Donald_A - Reality is a moment of thought not a long term idea when we deal with truth in a society of brainwashed so called Intellectual individuals and Market futurists but I will tell all my millionaire friends to leave the markets for the sake of THE PROFITS OF DOOM.Happy Trails

"Kim Dae-jung made a mistake during his campaign by opposing layoffs," said Lee Doo-won, an economist at Yonsei University. Kim had promised to ban layoffs for six months.
 "The blue collar workers voted for him on his pledges and now Kim needs to convince the people that he cannot keep his pledges,"

December 28, 1997
Korea braces for domino defaults and social unrest

SEOUL, South Korea ( Reuters ) - South Korea braced for long-feared domino corporate defaults as euphoria over International Monetary Fund-led aid faded, leaving only the reality of stringent reform requirements.
 President-elect Kim Dae-jung faced a stiff challenge to convince angry workers that layoffs were essential for urgently needed foreign investment.
 Economic analysts said soaring inflation, bankruptcies and layoffs would create an atmosphere for social unrest -- a prospect which could turn away investors.
 "These are volatile times and I don't think that volatility has begun to surface," said Keith Nam, branch manager at ABN AMRO Hoare Govett Asia. "But I think in the early part of next year we will see those problems in earnest.
 "It might be quite volatile both in the financial markets and in the fact that the Korean government has not established a viable welfare system for the unemployed," he said.
 Seoul's so-called "Christmas present" from the IMF of a $10 billion advance from a nearly $60 billion IMF-led bailout saved a South Korea teetering on insolvency.
 In exchange Seoul agreed to sweeping new reforms, including lifting almost all barriers to foreign investment in its financial markets.
 South Korean markets rallied on the news Friday, but the glee was short-lived.
 Soaring interest rates will prompt a new order in Korea with only the fittest surviving, analysts said.
 "The rules of the game are simple. High rates mean money shortages and many bankruptcies," said an economist at the state-funded Korea Development Institute ( KDI ) . "They are certainly the prelude for a big bang."
 Three-year corporate bond yields ended flat at 27 percent on Saturday, after hitting a record 31.45 percent on Tuesday.
 Analysts said the coming week would see the start of the domino collapses as corporate bond issues are expected to be huge and banks will call in loans from firms to meet Bank for International Settlement ( BIS ) capital adequacy levels.
 Coupled with gloomy prospects, a rare Seoul court ruling rejecting receivership applications for two troubled securities houses, confirmed there would be no more bailouts.
 The stock index closed the year at 376.31 on Saturday, a whooping 42 percent lower than last year's close of 651.22, and brokers said bankruptcies, high interest rates and a falling won would drive investors away again in the new year.
 The won, which hit a record low of 1,995 won to the dollar earlier last week, rose again to 1,498.0 by Friday's close. In 1996 the won closed the year at 843.70 against the dollar.
 Analysts said foreign investors would wait for the won to bottom out before piling into Korean markets to take advantage of record high interest rates and stocks hovering near a 10-year low.
 By the end of this week, foreigners will be allowed to take majority stakes in listed Korea firms and conduct "friendly mergers and acquisitions."
 South Korean media portrayed a somewhat hostile meeting between Kim Dae-jung and leaders of the militant Korean Confederation of Trade Unions ( KCTU ) on Saturday.
 "The reality of our economy is that we need the cooperation of the IMF .... For that, we must hurry reforms requested by them, and layoffs are inevitable," Kim was quoted by his party as saying.
 The KCTU demanded that a public hearing be held to assign responsibility for the economic debacle that has befallen South Korea and that those responsible be punished. It also reiterated its opposition to layoffs, signalling possible labour strife.
 "Kim Dae-jung made a mistake during his campaign by opposing layoffs," said Lee Doo-won, an economist at Yonsei University. Kim had promised to ban layoffs for six months.
 "The blue collar workers voted for him on his pledges and now Kim needs to convince the people that he cannot keep his pledges," said Lee. "There will be a lot of unhappy workers."


You're right along most of my thoughts....Reality!

I type with more than two fingers but it just means more fingers
to hit wrong keys...
And here is an interesting offshore view of US corporate re-
structuring from Barron's cover story interview with Albert Edwards:

Q: Restructuring isnt an unalloyed blessing then?
A: In the US, you have managers whove been given lots of options. Usually its seen as very good because managers then address the bottom line, controlling costs all the way through the cycle. What people dont seem to focus on so much is the fact that increased operational and financial leverage can also weaken a company. If managers leverage up a company to buy in equity, its a very good thing for the remaining equity investors, including the management--when profits are going up. But once profits go down, they are bankrupt.

Q: So its a bull-market phenomenon.
A: The lessons of the last recession have been forgotten. In 1990-91, with only a mildly bumpy landing, there were an unusually high number of corporate bankruptcies due to excessive leverage. The leverage isnt at mid-1980s levels now, but so far this year, Fed data show some $75 bn of equities have bought in and some $200 bn of debt issued, at an annual rate. Managements are buying lifestyle options: Well leverage up the company. In a bull market, we become millionaires. In a profits downturn, we go bust, then move on the next company to do the same thing. It has limited downside. The upside is unlimited. Im worried about what happens in the unforeseen circumstance that there is a US recession--although we dont see one in the near term. There will be one, eventually. Greenspan isnt God. This is the man who, in July 1990, said the US economy wasnt even slowing, when it was already in recession. If there is a US recession, its high level of operational and financial gearing means US corporate performance will be horrendous. This is what George Soros call reflexivity. As long as a virtuous feedback loop is operating, things are heading in the right direction, it looks great. You dont even have to think of the downside. But if you come to a fulcrum and something tips you over the other way, it all starts unraveling."

all - golddkm: a few years back i did some research on u.s. monetary hist.best source- u.s. code annotated, monetary leg., prentiss-hall.
there are now probably 50+/- volumes. if you have a lawyer buddy, he may have it. the gold reserve act 1934 sets the stage for confiscation etc.
the missing gold since 1936 to '72 is mostly what foreign nationals bought at $35/oz.

Communism / Socialism will not work, but politicians will keep trying to use the systems because they are the ultimate means to scam the public. Promise everything and don't worry how to pay for it. Everyone is equal except the politicians.

Again I ask who financed Lennin - "THOUGHTS"

You got a cancelled check or is this question a mirror of that which is rhetorical?

http://www.hkabc.net/cgi-bin/mtl-cgi

We are therefore doomed to repeat these cycles.

The gleaming beady eyes of the monster dominate the horizon. Millions of worshipers form lines stretching as far as the eye can see to feed the beast.

As each new person approaches they are asked "What will you give?"... "Will you denounce all who would shun me?"... "Will you believe Ted Koppel?"

As each new person nods agreement they throw their entire life's savings into the gaping mouth of the DOW demon. Not far behind, the plunge protection team laughs maniacally while battleship sized presses spew forth mountains of worthless reserve notes which are in turn issued to each new convert.

The money is treated like a cherished family pet. Proud new owners coo, pet and kiss their beautiful new paper, anxious to share their new religion with family and friends.

They mutter "I've invested wisely...I am safe" as they spin and stumble past the charred and smoking ruins of shattered banks.

The crowd performs the famous "dance of death" to the satanic beat of the FED band. Sounding like a hellish air raid siren, Clinton backs them with a moaning, off-key solo.

A silence falls upon the crowd. In the distance a barely discernable roar is detected. Clinton strains to hear and raises his hands for silence. No one moves or breathes.

The roar grows louder and closer. The sunlight breaks through the clouds and as the weakest in the group collapse to the ground.

The band plays louder and the presses whine into overdrive. AG takes the podium wearing a bizzare cheerleader outfit covered with dollar signs and carrying pom poms made of shredded reserve notes. His glasses fog as he does a frantic series of flips, splits and kicks.

The distant sounds now become more pronounced. The few who dare to look in the direction of the sound are reduced the tears.

A battle ensues for the attention of the crowd. The music reaches a feverish pitch while Greenspan raises various cards with dollar symbols.

The golden and silver flashes of light overcome the crowd. As one they turn to face 3 grubby teenagers. Complete silence...

The smallest of the approaching group upturns a dirty hand to reveal a single, badly scratched $20 Miss Liberty minted from holy American soil and says a forgotten sacred word. The piles of cash spontaneously combust. Clinton's face begins to melt. A few in the crowd start to murmur an ancient phrase that they had almost forgotten... "LIBERTY".

A memory stirs in Greenspan from his distant past forcing him to boldly approach the boy with the coin, tears streaming from his eyes.

All he says is... "Say it again."

I am accepting your sourses of information, thank you.
However, I think what you really see in these sourses
is certainly some truth combined with some Hollywood
style BS and covered with a layer of prejudice.

By the way, this "somebody" ( US customs officer statement )
who promised to deliver any weapon ( of MASS distruction )
from Russia, was later found to be a crook, who planned
to collect some advances from would-be buyers and then...see you
guys. He was citizen of one of the Baltic states...

What I really wanted to hear from you is if you are aware
of any news regarding gang of Russian criminals attacking
US nuclear base or kidnapping US nuclear submarine or US President,
or at least just firing RPG's at some local Sheriff's department building? That's what I would consider THREAT to the U.S!

I've seen a lot of this stuff in the movies...

My only point is if it's really so bad as we are told?

Very truly yours,

Oris

P.S. Would recommend the latest James Bond movie - "Tomorrow
never dies" - pretty good movie, lots of fire, Russian
weapons bazaar also shown very nicely and everything ended
as usual for James - bad guys all dead, good guys are in bed.

Anyone have current Japan PL price.

I was told by a client several years ago that the Rothschilds were expelled from Russia by the Czar; and, that later a shipment of Gold left Canada for Europe to finance Lennin. I do not no if this is true or if I am even repeating the story I heard correctly.

I just get curious when ever some one starts peddling the virtues of communism and socialism that maybe they know who is banking these systems from the beginning. I personally happen to believe it is the wealthy elite.

This is I think at least the second time ROR has ask for "thoughts" on the subject of Russia. I am just responding with thoughts and a question on a subject that I would like more info and validation of the story I heard.

Sorry for omitting the question mark.

I say, ol' chap, well done.

IMHO, It could have been the original IMF.

This cycle will continue until we as a species realize that we HAVE A NEEDTO GO TO SPACE AND BEYOND, it was not just a dream, it was a mission and we are not fulfilling it!

Well done. Gulp, a toast of tequila to ya.

http://www.chebucto.ns.ca/~an388/current.html

The pullback in gold prices has to be expected as they whoever they are
realize that we are near a full blown crisis and the last thing they
would want is for gold to go crazy. The goldbug part of me hopes that the
buying will overtake the selling yet the investor in me knows that their
market strength is such that they can make gold look weak. The good news
is that if they are sucessful in driving the price back down it will be
another chance to add to my position at rediculously low prices. Any
opinions on the price level where a full retracement could be expected?
Any and all input would be appreciated!

The last two are interesting. I do most humbly apologize if my previous post was terse in your regard. It was not my desire to be so at all.

For what it is worth Blanchard at Gold Newsletter, I would imagine with thoughts from Frank Veneroso, has mentioned a price of perhaps $250.00.

There are still hundreds of Russian ICBM's, both ground and sub launched, with MIRVed warheads pointed somewhere. The existence of such weapons in the hands of a corrupt, bankrupt nation is a very real threat. One which American media has studiously ignored. Russia is selling advanced weapons systems and nuclear technology to Iran, Syria, and Libya. These nations sponsor terrorism. Russia is taking Iraq's side in attempting to circumvent UN sanctions, in order to get payment for weapons sold to Saddam Hussein. These are not the actions of a responsible member of the world community.

I plan to see the Bond movie soon.

And the words Gold, Liberty, and God had been removed from the paper money. They were no longer permitted in the Land.

Good Job Schultz

This is a serious talk, Speed.

This is a real danger.

I agree with you 100%.

Here we go again 100 points from 52 week low.

My wife and I were both depression raised. Neither of us felt we were
"PO". Our children today occasionally mention our having been poor while
they were home. This is apparently because our house was CLEAR. Our car
and pickup were clear.
Their Mom was home until the youngest went to school full days.
Each of them were given opportunity to do any sports available.
They were all taught to ski. Try takin' 4 kids skiing in any day!
Poor indeed!
Guess poverty truly is relative. We've always been healthy. Out of debt
for 25 years or more. Travel as we wish.
Got a little protection against the evils we speak of here on kitco.
Know where to look for danger, socially and economically.
We tell those whom we care about how to do what we are trying to do.
i.e.- survive in a world becoming rapidly very hostile to freedom
lovers! Poor,indeed!!

Thank you, and no problem, I did not take it that way. I understand the nature of your posts. My post vary a little to much - depends on how much coffee or sleep I have had, I guess?
Again thanks

In 1893, when Cleveland was inaugurated, approximately

$100,000,000 in U.S. gold reserves were available to assure

redemption of government obligations. ( see today's 16:30 posting by Donald__A. )

By 1937, 43 years later, U.S. gold reserves had risen to the

$10,000,000,000 mark. ( see 17:11 posting on Ft. Knox ) a hundred-

fold increase!

Had we had a similar prosperity in the ensuing 43 years, when

Reagan was inaugurated in 1980, we would have had gold reserves

of $1,000,000,000,000 ( 100 x 10,000,000,000 ) !

Instead, we had a mountain of debt; and even at $850 gold in

1980 the value of U.S. gold reserves never exceeded $250 billion.

Schultz@21:02

Ted G'day mate.

Mike Sheller Cool T-shirt, feller!

http://www.clarityresources.com/order.html


aurator, ignorant of his prescience

G'Day bro from the snowy tundra~~~~~~~~~~~

We are now being told that NEW security precautions are going to be put in place at the beginning of the year at most airports. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't TWA 800 go down for mechanical reasons? Weren't the 'New' security measures implemented during that time done as a precaution in the event that terrorism was the cause of the crash?

Now we are officially being told that it was a mechanical defect. If this statement is taken at face value, then why the increase in security measures? What in the Hell are they looking for? The media reports that everyone's luggage will be subjected to a complete hand search. Now, if I were trying to get somewhere with money, gold, jewelry, drugs, deodorant, etc... I think you get the picture. My question is, what do they know ( or expect ) that we don't? No, this is not paranoia. It's about the Bill of Rights. Sorry, I forgot that it's an outdated document. What with the right to keep and bear arms and all, how barbaric.

Another point is that if the crash were due to mechanical failure, then why not undo the security measures already put in place? Something stinks bigtime here.

I admit the US never should have picked up the Viet Nam debocle from France. I'd never have voted for LBJ in a million years as far as that goes. Hiroshima was unfortunate, but the Japanese may have killed as many as 30 million Chinese in the decade prior to 1946. Even if it were only 10 million it justified 2 a-bombs to end the war quickly given that kind of slaughter. Better yet, every body quit fighting and nobody dump a bomb on anyone anymore.

Monday was supposed to be a very bad day? I recall it, but forget where.

When Asian countries devalue their currencies, where is the competitive advantage in exports? For example:Japanese yen is worth one American dollar. They print an equal amount of yen to what presently exists so the yen is devalued by 50% in the face of a dollar. A Japanese unit of export formerly was produced so that it sold for one dollar or one yen. Now they will sell it for one dollar or two yen. They will not accept less because the two yen is needed to purchase domestically what one yen used to buy.

What is missing from this analysis?

You can have the good old days of Johnson's Great Society and Viet Nam War. That was just a bunch of that free crap that put the country into eternal debt.

Now we have minority set aside, legalized kickback funding for the chosen elite.
No problem, just keep printing - it got us out of the depression or was it Pearl Harbor?
I think it may have been both.

Therefore, in a short while, all that may be missing is a war.

Panda, I flew for the first time in 1990 ( a one-way trip to Guatemala ) . It is unbelievable the kind of security I was subjected to this past February on the last flight I took ( from Phoenix ) compared to that first one. It has become progressively more Big Brotherish of an experience every year. I go Greyhound or Amtrack when I can now. I can see why people are worried about sudden government controls on gold should the price become more volatile.

Keep an eye on the Nikkei stock market. I think it is just about to bottem.

You have only left out one important ingredient. It is the manner in which they maintain balance of trade and equalibrium of currency which is to inflate equally. The G-7 countries will use the strongest currencies to shore up the weakest ones. That is precisely why this will be a worldwide meltdown. They will inflate until the whole thing collapses.

In economic terms, preceived differences between currencies do not exist. We have central planning in the form of exchange rate controls.

reno gambler---

yes, and lgb is going to vote republican while poorboys get rich!!

All: I have read the posts about deals between Saudi Arabia, IMF and Japan -- with interest!

I have several observations:

First, Saudi Gold and IMF: Approximately 8000 tonnes of gold have been "loaned" to get us to the current gold price. These "loans" must be maintained or converted to sales or the price of gold rises. Perhaps the IMF needs help from the Saudis just to maintain the status quo. Or -- perhaps there are new gold debts that have just materialized. Isn't it interesting that no one is talking about the BIS, the historical source of gold for CB's. Do the Saudi's have enough gold that they rival the Rothschild's?

Secondly, does the Gold bear end near 4/31/98? The deadline for the EURO "go live" is April 31, 1998, as Carl said. But there may be some "dead" Central banks out there that need supporting as well, and "the powers that be" are clearly more concerned about maintaining the current world financial system than they are about the price of gold. Hence, in a full blown financial crisis, gold could stay in a bear market past 4/31/98, though this is hard to believe, given that the tide is shifting. That will be a gold buying opportunity indeed!

Three, Japan and the Saudis: Despite the problems of the Japanese, they do look far into the future -- decades or more -- much farther than the average westerner. I'm sure they are well aware of the US debt problems, and they are probably working out a deal of some kind with the Saudis that bypasses the dollar as an intermediary for oil. I'm at a loss to know what this is, but the Japanese do have a reputation for application of technology. Technology development centers in Saudi Arabia/Arab world? How about military? Perhaps the key is military technology without the stigma of being from the "Great Satan" -- the USA? The Saudis are shifting toward Iran and the Arab world, and they need to diversify their political contacts.

What I find amusing is that the Japanese do have debt problems, but even at their worst, they are not as bad as those of the western world. And -- we should not think that our part of the world is any less corrupt, despite "stricter IMF banking rules". Corruption has a tendency to become apparent after crises are evident, not before. No one went after Orange County until after the derivatives crisis.

I wonder -- perhaps we should watch carefully the activities of our trading partners such as Japan, Saudi Arabia, as well as the European block. Very often one can lean more about your weaknesses from your partners/rivals than from examining yourself directly. In other words, what do the Saudis and the Japanese know that the rest of us don't know?

This is not just about instability in Russia -- but possibly something else.

I think we are moving from an era of international cooperation dominated by the US, into an era of a least three - maybe four centers of economic power. The transition may not be a smooth one.

I'll hitchhike on Donald's car analogy. If Japan devalues their currency they can pay their workers in yen which are worth less. Instead of $9 US equivalent, they get paid $4.50 US equivalent. They can then sell me a Nissan Altima at a discount to last years' price because the labor component of their cost is less in dollar terms. Internally, the Japanese consumers will figure out what's going on faster than the government expects and begin guarding their savings by purchasing things that are fixed relative to their yen. At first they will buy dollars, bonds, stocks, Euro currencies and bonds, then later if these foreign assets begin to fall, they will buy gold and silver. Watch for it.

Panda: did you see haulpak's post earlier today, mentioning GGO - Sun Dec 28 1997 12:19?
I was wondering what your take is now on GGO. TIA

We live in a strange world of not touching our fellow man.Russian people are human and images of ourselves .Why do we think they live on some other planet?We are mankind Right!! Sheller.

panda: Right after Flight 800 went down, Al Gore was involved in some sort of Government review of terrorism and Airline security. Much of the discussion centered around missle attacks. Regardless of what the "official" reason turns out to be, the result will be increased security.

I also recall that there was a private radar tracking system that just happened to monitor all of the events around the flight 800 episode. Apparently the old radar transmitters can be used with the upgrade. That company ( the name exscapes me ) knew all about what was happening almost immediately. There will be much interest now in using such advanced computerized tracking systems at the larger airports ( provided that they are affordable ) .

Are precious metals trading this evening? Kitco is not showing any updates. If they are trading, please post their recent values and give the url where we can follow them.

Thanks in advance.

Schultz....thrust your golden rapier into the forehead of the steeley-eyed bastard beast and let its green blood flow into the Atlantic. Great material...I get the picture. Thanks to you.

Mr. Mick....Cherokee has the fix on the next three days...he's perched outside your window. Knock...knock...knock...nevermore. And Mike Sheller says the bongos speak tomorrow...bad tidings for the greedy liars...Battipaglia look-alikes, lie-alikes...will lie nevermore.

Poorboys:
I think those Russians who were willing to go out in the rain and mud try and save the potato harvest by hand had a lot of integrity. Many were elderly. Given the fact that much of that crop rotted as winter neared in a year when US papers editorialized about US responsibility in feeding the fledgling Russian democracy didn't reflect integrity in the overall population. My roots are Polish. It was the Russians under Stalin who connived with Hitler and occupied over half of Poland in 1939, lining up tens of thousands of Polish POWs and machinegunning them into ravines of the Katyn Forest then cowardly blaming the Germans for the massacres. To the Russians credit, they did give an official apology for the murders, but the occupation of Poland by Russia for 50 years was an absolute horror for those people. Given their recent past, the Russians inability to cope with the changeover to capitalism is unsettling.

I am a liitle disppointed that Gold didn't get closer to $300 before showing some. weakness. There has been pretty good physical demand ( double the usual shipments through Dubai ) and you would have thought this would frighten the shorts a little. I think this will an important weak, especially after Jan 1st when shorts can lock their gains and not pay tax on it for a year.

aurator: I knew you would eventually read Carl's post about P.R. Sarkar, and realize the mistaken identity. He apparently had the quality of changing the lives of people who knew him -- I wish we had more people like him -- or Ghandhi.

It seems to me that great leaders only come to our aid when we have created a severe crisis of some kind. That cycle is also part of the human condition, and seems unlikely to be changed very soon.

In my readings of the Quantization of the Universe, I have begun to realize that "free will" in the normal sense is not entirely ours.

Easily 1/3 or more of what we do or experience is intertwined with natural events that we have no control over.

I therefor think humans will be always be subject to cycles as a necessary part of our growth, but we do have control over the severity of these cycles, and whether we learn from them, or mindlessly repeat the same mistakes over and over again.

Donald's comments about the benefits of the "Great Depression" in the USA ring true. Adversity does build character, and I must admit I have learned far more from my failures than from my successes. And -- I am dismayed to see that few of the children of my generation even understand the value of a college education, or the value of the work ethic. I did not experience the Great Depression as Donald did -- but at least I heard about it all the time drom my dad. The current generation doesn't hear about it, and doesn't seem to want to read enough history to learn about it. My children know something about it, but how many other children know?

ASIA/EUROPE
SPOT PRICE December 26, 1997
02:33AM New York Time
Timezone Equivalents

. Bid Ask Change from New York close
GOLD 295.90 296.60 +0.85
SILVER 6.39 6.42 +0.03
PLATINUM 391.00 399.00 +14.00
PALLADIUM 196.00 199.00 +1.80
------------------------------------
ASIA/EUROPE
SPOT PRICE December 28, 1997
10:15PM New York Time
Timezone Equivalents

. Bid Ask Change from New York close
GOLD 293.60 294.10 -1.45
SILVER 6.29 6.34 -0.07
PLATINUM 362.00 365.00 -15.00
PALLADIUM 192.00 195.00 -2.20

http://www.kitco.com/gold.live.html

Hate to see gold showing little support at this level although I would
expect the volumes are light.

Try Bart's main page http://www.kitco.com/gold.live.html

EBN is still set to the 25th tonight. All precious metals are down slightly.

TO CHEROKEE_A I don't play politics , I just follow markets and play stocks. I'm not usually wrong. Have a good evening.

kitco is fixin to go down.....again.

shure fire indicator.....sh!t is fixin to hit the fan......

As Red Skelton used to say at the end of the show: G'night and God Bless.

Are precious metals trading this evening? Kitco is not showing any updates. If they are trading, please post their recent values and give the url where we can follow them.

Thanks in advance.

Kitco getting real slow in the last hour or so.

I'm a little slow, but I think I get it now. Nobody is allowed to fail. Mr Yen said so,
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971228/japan_failures_1.html
I'm sure you guys have already brought this up or seen the story.

JTF, Gusto Oro - I don't trust these BASTAR** ! You don't cook a frog by dumping it in to a pot of hot water. You put the frog in a pot of cold water and turn the heat up slowly. The same thing applies to freedom.

aurator - Right now we have a big sale going on. Let's see who buys whom here. This is a real game of speculation. Time to watch for quiet accumulation that may have/be going on.

JTF "Perhaps the key is military technology" I believe you may have scored a direct hit. Military technology in exchange for Oil. The Japanese military manufacturing complex is ultra modern and can gear up to large production runs very quickly. The Japanese have made a policy of purchasing the licences to the latest in weaponry, from all over the world. They have made an art form of the short run weapon manufacture. 100 anti tank rockets, that sort of thing, but everything is state of the art. Now, if this line of enquiry hold out, there must be a link through India, pehaps that was what Another was talking about. THere is a geographical/strategic link that Japan and Saudi Arabia share, it is INDIA. In any case we should all pay particular attention to Japan's request to remove the US bases in Okinawa and monitor any suggestion of change to Japans Strategic Defence Force.

Agree 100%. I spend much time in factories in Southen CA. Most of the people who work are in the 80% you talk about. I visit all kinds of industry, its the same with all. Even worst in Mexico. EM

poorboys: I am not sure I fully understand your comments about Russia, but I do have faith in the average Russian in the same way I have faith in the average American.

What bothers me is the damage the Communist system did to the minority of Russians who were potential leaders, eg what happened to the religious leaders in Russia among others. That resource, which is necessary for recovery from their current situation, may take nearly a generation to recover.

What sort of leaders can we expect to emerge in Russia, given what has been done to the Russian people by the Communists? Perhaps I am being overly pessimistic -- I sincerely hope so.

http://www.kitco.com/gold.live.html
Contains no data

Aurator- I ran right over to buy my get gold get, get real T-shirt but imagine my dismay when I clicked on payment options and GOLD was not one of them! The irony is apparent even to me.

reno gambler--

as earl would say 'what's yer point?'

To make the statement you did either you are a genius or you live up to
your name gambler! Betting on a bottom at this point would be like
playing poker with the rent money or even worse on a Visa Card! To each
his own although I have too much respect for my money to bet on a lame
horse in a grade one stakes race!

My Father grew up in Hells Kitchen in NY during the depression. He then went on to become the youngest officer in the intelligence corps ( CIC ) in the United States Military. He wrote speeches for Eisenhower, Smith, Patton and others. He was one of the very first Officers into the Death Camps. You did not move around the European theatre as they called it unless he signed the orders.

The best friends ( the kids in his neighborhood ) he had died defending this Great Country. Each one of his six best buddies sacrificed their lives so that we might live in a free world. A great many human beings from other countries that befriended my Father, whom he cared deeply about, gave up their lives to stop the murdering bastards.

The only bastards were not overseas by a long shot.

My hatred of the above mentioned specific bastards stems from my father's resignation. He resigned his position because the Washington crowd wanted his help to bring NAZIS into the United States after World War II. He refused. They did bring NAZIS onto United States soil, the same soil of freedom that was watered by his friends and many other's blood. Until the day he died they called and wanted him back. I hung up the phone on those lying bastards. That he should be bothered by the likes of them. I would not spit on them. I would however hit them with Armenian Ten Inch Knuckles. ( it's a saying if you are unfamiliar )

These things that they did were not only on American soil. Washington is a charge card and we are getting the bill. WE THE PEOPLE are paying for crimes we would as a people never allow. NEVER.

Those lying bastards know me, where I live and they can KISS my America Loving ASS. Just in case you are interested I HAVE SAID IT TO THEIR LYING BASTARD FACES.

On this forum I have made comments about leaving these United States. I shall not. It is not I who will leave, it is them that are the bastards that will leave. I hope that all will not allow them to dock at your shores so that they may die at sea like the vermin scum that they are.

Other than that I am a teddy bear.

Good night Gracie...........

Who knows what tomorow brings? The 'Net sure isn't telling me anything! It seems like most 'Net feeds are still on holiday. NDX seems to be geting hit tonight on the Globex. Good night all...

AURATOR: If I may interject, as I follow GGO, the stock has received a number of buy recommendations and a number of funds include it in their portfolio. A risk with GGO is that ore is in a clay matrix and there is some concern that ground conditions will increase production costs. I presume you are aware of the positive fundamentals which are self-evident. It reportedly has been a take-over target for at least a year without any buyers. I suggest you take a look at the Yahoo message board on the company to get local flavor. Go to Yahoo Finance, click on Message Boards and follow the lead to precious metal stocks. Good hunting.

Gold and other Commodities
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?SOURCE=core/dbc

May be up or down $2 by now - Kitco Slow again.

[ Business | US Market | Industry | IPO | S&P | International | PRNews | BizWire | Finance Home ]

Sunday December 28, 12:07 am Eastern Time

Japan should not let banks fail - Sakakibara

TOKYO, Dec 28 ( Reuters ) - The Japanese government should not allow any more bank failures,

Eisuke Sakakibara, vice finance minister for international affairs said on Sunday.

Rather, banks which are having difficulties should either restructure their business, change business

managers or look for ways to survive such as merging with other financial institutions he added.

``The global standard is that we should not allow financial institutions of considerable size to fail, ''

Sakakibara said on a national television show.

He said that Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Ltd ( 8312.T ) , which recently collapsed, should not have

been allowed to fail.

Asked if Japan's financial crisis will become worse, Sakakibara said Tokyo should use its planned

financial stability package which involves a maximum of 30 trillion yen ( $230 billion ) in public funds

for use to stop it from getting worse.

``We must use this system as much as possible. I think 30 trillion is enough. We should implement

this system steadily and as soon as possible,'' he said.

``We should make clear to the public that we will not allow banks to fail. We should not let

securities companies of considerable size fail either. The United States and the United Kingdom

have not done it either. This is the global standard,'' he said.

One of the key factors in the planned financial stability steps is a new fund to be set up within the

semi-public Deposit Insurance Corp of Japan, which would make loans to healthy private banks to

help strengthen their capital base, he added.

Sakakibara said it was up to politicians and bureaucrats to save banks from failing and it was up to

banks to prevent companies from failing.

"We shouldn't let companies fail either," he said.

The Japanese economy's current problem was an internal one in that it has lost confidence in itself,

he said.

``If we take measures and confidence is recovered, the economy will go well,'' he said.

It was important for the government to announce sweeping economic policies at one fell swoop, he

said in response to a question about why stock prices kept on falling.

Agree: The poor financial condition of most gold miners is a primary reason why gold is doing poorly. Using the financing tool provided by the enemy ( the CB's and their compatriot's ) spells possible disater or eventual take over of many miners.
Also the media has much to do with the poor image of gold especially with the stock and bond markets having done well ( except until lately ) . Greed and "the paper interest confidence game" play a big role especially when the media glorifies profit built on poor foundations.

One can't fight the heavens. By the way, if anyone wants to read a great treatise on why Communism and Socialism never worked and never will, The Great Reckoning by Davidson and Rees-Mogg has it.
Its getting late. Goodnight all.

scroll to bottom of page and you get:

ASIA/EUROPE
SPOT PRICE December 28, 1997
10:58PM New York Time
Timezone Equivalents

. Bid Ask Change from New York close
GOLD 293.40 293.90 -1.65
SILVER 6.29 6.34 -0.07
PLATINUM 362.00 365.00 -15.00
PALLADIUM 192.00 195.00 -2.20

The background info helps, I bet you feel better, thanks again.

You are most Welcome.

Great Book and appears to be on target.
Chapter "When the Music Stops"
"how the depression might unfold" pg. 445

Japan must use India's skills : Hashimoto

Tokyo, June 10.

The Japanese Prime Minister, Mr. Ryutaro Hashimoto, has said both Japan and India should "take full advantage of India's high-level engineering skill."

Mr. Hashimoto made the remarks when he received an Indian business delegation headed by Mr. N. Kumar, president of the Confederation of Indian Industry ( CII ) , last night.

According to Mr. Kumar, the Prime Minister said India's industrial strength as he understood lay in the high level of engineering skill which could be used by both India and Japan. - PTI

All:
Someone mentioned out of the money gold calls the other night for 60.00 or there about. Including commissions, I don't see any that cheap. Anyone buying calls? Comments?

Feb. gold down 1.40------g'nite all!

Overnight at this time Feb gold is at 295.30, Mar silver is 630, S&P 947.10, and bonds at 121.

KCT

Try this site for closing Option prices:


http://router.minot.com/~bohl/history/option/Gold

jmark---

you can get JUNE 350 calls for around $20 premium plus broker fee...

closer to the money------more expensive

farther out--------------more expensive

fact-----most options expire worthless

one successful option trade ( 1 option ) could pay for
30+ years of options investing at 3k per year!!

leverage........and volatility....we have both.. !;'.-.
now to the new years resolution,------------------- 1000k in '98!

nobody KNOWS AS MUCH AS YOU think they do!

listen to your eyes.........they are screaming, yet they
are the hardest to hear........

All: Just some thoughts from my perspective at 35,000 feet reference human nature, etc.

Over the years my profession has taken me across hundreds of thousands of air-miles and has given me the opportunity to observe mankind at it's worst and at it's best. Mostly I've noticed a change for the worst among certain groups of air travelers.

The greatest change has occurred within the group I would call the 'Priveleged Business Elite'. Eating With the Sharks, Swimming With the Pirhanas and Negotiating With the Barracudas over the years certainly has increased their wealth considerably. But at what expense? Many times

their grasp of basic manners or civility to their fellow travelers is painfully missing. ( And what values are they passing on to their offspring? ) As I stand in the cockpit door, in uniform, very few of them look me in the eye anymore. And when I travel in civilian garb to my base 1,000 miles away I never know what to expect. Exam

I'll try again...

( If it doesn't work right this time, I'll skip the cutting and pasting and just type it in tomorrow ) .

All: Just some thoughts from my perspective at 35,000 feet reference human nature, etc:

Over the years my profession has taken me across hundreds of thousands of air-miles and has

given me the opportunity to observe mankind at it's worst and at it's best. Mostly I've noticed a

change for the worst among certain groups of air travelers.

The greatest change has occurred within the group I would call the 'Priveleged Business Elite'.

Eating With the Sharks, Swimming With the Pirhanas and Negotiating With the Barracudas over

the years certainly has increased their wealth considerably. But at what expense? Many times

their grasp of basic manners or civility to their fellow travelers is painfully missing. ( And what

values are they passing on to their offspring? ) As I stand in t

I give up. I'll try again tomorrow. 'Nite all.

Yup, a sad but true story. Most of the guys we imported were psychiatrists who can be credited with engineering a large number of our social problems. They receive billions in government grants to undermine religion, sound teaching practices and patriotic values, promote homosexuality and leftist causes and dispense drugs such as Ritalin to our schoolchildren. A sad chapter in our history.

Platinum and other metal markets may feel effect.

http://www.tocom.or.jp/guide/calen97_e.html