Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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The Hatt
(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:12 - ID#294232)
Japan Heading South Again?
When Japan breaks the 14000 mark all hell will break loose and watch for
a free-fall like we have never seen before. The Asia flu will become
extremely contagious and the Dow will be brought to its knees. The wrath
of unsofisticated mutual fund rookies will PANIC and the fund managers
will face redemptions far beyond their expectations and limits of hedging! The derivitives market will unwind with default after default and then and only then will the truth of gold be told. The timeframe is
in my humble opinion near as Governments stuggle to find a cure for what
they dread the most,DEFLATION!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:16 - ID#252127)

We need a PROFESSIONAL'S take on the level of true investment demand that would be required to drive gold above $420.
I know that this is a difficult question given all the negativism about about the metal, but perhaps with input ftom those in the same business a guideline can be established.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:21 - ID#286230)
Dec 28 1997 11:26
Mike Sheller: Can you tell me how much gold the US Gov confiscated during the '30's?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:22 - ID#373403)
computer advice
$1,099 200mhz MMX / 32Meg / 2.5GB / 512K Cache / 14" monitor / 1mb video

$1,599 233mhz PentII / 32MB / 4.3GB / 512K / 17" Monitor / 4mb Video

$1,599 233mhz MMX / 64MB / 6.4GB / 512K / 15" Monitor / 2mb Video

This is a second computer for home. I already have an equivelent of the first at work. Is it worth the extra for the extras or should I be happy with this at the lower price and wait a year for price drops. Taxwise, it must be done by the end of the year. The money is not necessarily the question as I work at home also.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:25 - ID#224149)
Space-If The time was pure and non-selfish then the universe came and caught you're past . Ted Oh ! America the mighty !!DollarHappy!! Trails !!Away to invest in the Great American Dream.P.S.To sleep is to catch the love of galaxies.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:33 - ID#344290)
Deflation versus Inflation coming our way?
As I note the fine input from Donald, Schultz, Nick@C, and others, I would like to postulate that no bank in USA, run reasonably intelligently can/will become insolvent if AG wished it not to. The Fed can allow that bank to bundle its shaky loans and deposit that paper with the Fed for the face value of the loan and thus saving the bank from any loss of capital whatsoever. The Fed "can create money without limit" ( per AG ) . Further, the Fed can lower the reserve requirements of the banks, and I'm sure that AG has many other devices to keep a bank liquid if he chooses; ie: loan guarantees to Chrysler. If bank fails, FDIC has to make depositors whole - if many banks fail per deflationary scenario in the cheap impoted car example many jobs are lost - tax receipts plummet - the national debt interest can't be paid - nobody buys Treas. bonds - Congress has no money - the states are broke, ditto cities,etc., - the military isn't paid - POOF - it's over. AG will not let the banks fail, and Clinton & RR will back him to the hilt.

The point is that when we have a crises, the Fed. will react vigorously and with effect. The Fed has enormous power! They will always react IMHO to keep the system liquid and avoid a deflationary collapse - I don't think you can have a deflationary failure if the financial institutions are kept afloat. In '29 - '32 the Fed. was constrained by gold requirement before they could legally print dollars. That constraint is long gone today - a big difference. Also, one HUGE benefit of runaway inflation versus deflationary collapse is that you can retire the national debt with ease with cheap dollars ( this will be of great appeal to the current Govt. ) Also, the politicians buy time and keep their jobs at least until the next election.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:35 - ID#288156)
Just because it seems fair to let folks speak for themselves
Subject: Ukraine's billion dollar club
Date: Sun, 19 Oct 1997 12:50:45 -0400

With all the pessimism about Ukraine's economy being promoted by
"professional" critics in the Ukrainian media, one tends to forget about the winners and turns attention only to the losers.

On top of the list according to 1996 sales is Kryvorizhstal with sales
over 1,987 million hryvnias ( over 1.1 billion USD ! ) and with exports of USD $ 165.69 millions The Ilych Steelworks had sales of 1,784 million hryvnias , exports of 549 mill. USD and net profits 103 million. Azovstal Steelworks has sales of 1,709 millions hryvnias, exports of 441 million USD and net profit of 127 million.

Let's remember that these are the same enterprises that only a few years
ago used to be financed by the state budget, that knew nothing about
exports to the West, that relied on production quotas set by the Comparty
bosses and that continue to play "godfather" to the population in their
area providing services from a kindergarden to subsidized vacations. Maybe they deserve some credit and another chance !

The list goes on. That the list is dominated by steelmaking, chemical and energy enterprisesis, of course, natural as this is where Ukraine's present industrial strength shows well. But the list includes also about 140 food sector enterprises ( sugar, oil, etc ) , some 100 machinebuilding firms, breweries, etc. There is certainly a lot of value added in this mix, demonstrating that the concept of Ukraine being largely a source of "cheap" raw materials and "cheap" labour is false.

Of course, a lot more needs to be improved and changed. But progress is
real and one should examine and assess real facts before criticizing
Mykola Switucha

Ukraine's complain too, and sound rather like us! But they seem to
work, and dream just like us too. Admitedly, these chaps, with computers and on the net, are not the "man in the street", but they seem like
mighty fine 'seed corn'.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:40 - ID#347457)
@Speed and military danger
Speed @21:27, agreed, this is one of the things which worries me. Russia is not one of the small "under armed" countries and the latest development turned the country into chaos where nobody is in control, masses go hungry, and any nut can turn the country into very dangerous entity ( just like in Germany before WWII )

Unfortunately, our fearless leaders had only one thing on their mind - demise of superpower opponent, and opening of potentially huge market. Once more a money and narrowly focused policy created more problems than it solved. As far as I am concerned, I would rather deal with communist Russia that Russia which is out of control. Roadmap to democracy and free markets which works for a small country can not be applied to country like Russia. As a matter of fact, I think that the slow and painful road taken in China is safer to the world order than whats happening in Russia ( at least you know who is in control

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:40 - ID#402183)
What's the Nikkei doing so far?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:48 - ID#200163)

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 12:46AM 14703.50 -99.10 -0.67%

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:48 - ID#288156)
Crunch, re: inflation/deflation and the Meneger sponge...
I'm beginning to think they just want to hold it all together--by
any means necessary--until Dec 31, 1999. Let Y2K erase it all
( not their fault, pols LOVE that ) and start the game again! ( :- )

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:49 - ID#252127)

When the manure hits the fan neither Greenspan or Ruben will stop the splatter that will darken their faces and at best their creditability. Then perhaps tolerant1's #1 Foe ( not San Diego's fine 3rd basement ) will fail in abject humility. Damn them all, but not SD's Cammy.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:49 - ID#401460)
Haulpak (sp)
Nikkei 225

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:49 - ID#286230)
Nikkei live--almost:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:50 - ID#238422)
Miro, you seems to know what I know.
Only if you would like to answer, what is
your first language?

Best regards.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 00:54 - ID#402183)
Thanks Selby, HighRise.
Hold on to your hats....

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:03 - ID#224149)
Gusto_oro-What was and is a crime against the freedom of the great intellect of the Polish People is beyond comprehension, my thoughts are in "sorrow" for us and the "West" as the future shows it's ugly head.Good Night my friend and let the beautiful things in life be free.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:07 - ID#401460)
Nikkei 225

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:07 - ID#335190)
Donald_A @ I do not agree with your take, on the benefits of
Date: Sun Dec 28 1997 20:01

Donald__A ( @Poorboys ) ID#26793:

*"We need hard times for national therapy. The sooner the better; or we will end up in decline no different than what happened to Rome."*


The veterans of World War I were about to show how late it was. Thousands of them, under a Congressional Act of 1932, had $50 or $100 coming to them under a provision for adjusted service pay. The money, however, would not be paid until 1945. But in 1932 $50 or $100 seemed a fortune, meant the difference between eating and not eating if only for a matter of weeks.

For many of the influential did not realize the humiliation of the depression, a humiliation particularly marked in those who had once been hailed as heroes and told that they had made the world safe for democracy. They had saved their country, the veterans said, and what had they got?

Evictions, joblessness, hunger, sickness, sometimes lack of shelter save for Hoovervilles ( named by the jobless in honor of President Hoover ) . The call for the march had scarcely been issued when veterans who wouldnt have known a Communist from a Mohammedan began their remarkable trek to Washington.

And always they carried their bitter signs, Heroes in 1917 - Bums in 1932 and We Fought for Democracy - Where Is It.

They must be turned back, declared General Pelham Glassford, chief of police of Washington, D.C. By June there were more than 20,000 veterans in Washington, streaming through the corridors of Congress, buttonholing Representatives and Senators, demanding that a bill be passed granting them their money now, not thirteen years from 1932.

President Hoover, who had not acted effectively during almost three years of depression, now acted with dispatch. He called out the United States Army against the former members of the United States Army, their wives, and children. General Douglas MacArther, Chief of Staff who was to command this assault against Americans, was joined by Colonel Dwight D. Eisenhower and Major George O. Patton.

The troops were drawn up in Pennsylvania Avenue when General MacArthur and Colonel Eisenhower arrived at about 4 p.m. Some of the bonus marchers were barricaded at Third Street, where there was a shanty village of veterans, and it was decided to oust them before advancing to the Battle of Anacostia Flats.

As the cavalrymen, swinging their sabres, cleared the barricade, infantrymen, gas masks on their faces, advanced on the pathetic, makeshift group of packing-box huts, the women and children running shrieking before their countrys soldiers who lobbed tear gas bombs after them.

The mob was a bad-looking one General MacArthur continued. It was on marked by signs of revolution. The gentleness and consideration with which they had been treated they had mistaken for weakness

The World War I veterans fled their government and its army. They had exercised their constitutional right of petitioning Congress, and the army in which they had proudly fought had been turned against them; their own army in battle dress had attacked their wives and children. President Hoover issued a proud and ringing statement A challenge to the authority of the United States has been met swiftly and firmly, he said. After months of patient indulgence, the government met overt lawlessness as it always must be met....The first obligation of my office is to uphold and defend the Constitution and the authority of the law. This I propose always to do 

February 1933, Hoover still in office, runs on banks, bank failures, and bank closings in state after state had brought the financial system of the country to a virtual standstill. Money was disappearing. Wages could not be paid. Purchases could not be made. Food could not be bought. Checks were not honored. Vast crowds, ruined by the bank closings, clamored, wept, and rioted before silent, vacant savings institutions in every large city, their life savings gone they knew not where.

March 04 1933 Franklin Delano Roosevelt was sworn in as the new President of the USofA.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:14 - ID#228128)
Poles and Russia
Gusto Oro: Were you aware that after WWII Stalin asked the U.S. government to send him the Polish DPs on the U.S. side from various concentration camps etc. One of our generals, I think it was Mark Clark, refused the order. He was never court martialed for it because of the negative publicity it would receive. The U.S. sent them anyway. Most of my male Polish relatives died in their gulags. The females were just raped and murdered on the spot.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:17 - ID#401460)
C G8
Feb. Gold
High 2962
Low 2942
Volumne 13.1K
Kitco Gold Chart Broken,
Kitco Cookies Still work!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:18 - ID#345268)
To all
Can someone please explain how Germany recovered after the big financial collapse in 1922 and got back on its feet with a sound currency?

How can a country go from a worthless currency to recovery?

What really happened and they pulled it off?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:20 - ID#401460)

Good Luck to ALL this Week!
( Except for those who want Gold to go down again. ) [:- )

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:21 - ID#401460)

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:22 - ID#252127)

Hocus pocus loans from International Bankers.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:25 - ID#401460)
After Hitler,
We took 1/2 and Russia took 1/2
It is in the World History books!
Not enough time here. Sorry!

Good Night!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:28 - ID#28585)
There is probably nothing more pathetic than watching all the goldbugs on this kitco forum fantasizing about gold going through the roof in the short term.

The CB's continue to dump gold...the gold producers continue to flood the market with supply...the propaganda machine mounts against gold as a store of wealth...what Japanese person in his right mind would want to buy an ounce of this gold crap?

The only way to break from this pattern is dramatic, concerted action on the part of global gold producers. The CB's are never going to do it's up to producers to change the market perception....not via hot air but through real, substantive actions!

Naturally, the "gurus" on this forum scoff at any radical change in direction. They're in such a rut...too busy fondly remembering the good old days when kids didn't take drugs and Leave it to Beaver was everybody's favorite TV show.

Well, Wall Street Bulls will scoff at the Vronskys, Producers, Hagiss's, and all the other gold lemmings when the metal tumbles to $220 ( or lower ) by year's end.

HAR...HAR...HAR... ( oh...that's the sound of Bull laughter targeted at
gold lemmings ) . HAR...HAR...HAR....

If you don't want to hear it, CHANGE THE PERCEPTION!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:30 - ID#252127)

I understand that todays US Troops are being querried on how they would react to ordered cold blood killing's of disgruntled US Citizen's. Conclussion is that something bad is comong down the pike.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:32 - ID#401460)
1922 German Crash
fill me in please. I am the one who needs the history lesson.

In the book "The Great Reckoning" they compare Japan of 90 to the US of 30, and I assumed there would be some correlation between Germany/Europe of 30 to US of 90.
The theory being that the depressions move west across the globe in 60 yr cycles.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:36 - ID#345268)
to farfel
If you believe gold is going to $220, THEN SHORT IT!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:41 - ID#401460)
Myrmidon (to farfel)
Well Put!
Fartel, go out and Short Gold big time @ $220 then come back here and show us how good you are. E- Mail us proof of the millions you make please.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:42 - ID#345268)
To HighRise
After the runaway inflation which destroyed Germany's currency the Bankers bailed out Germany. I was not aware of that and some kind person explained it in an earlier post.

Next question of course is, how Germany acquired all its gold ( I believe 90 million ozs? ) . Obviously it was not stolen in the II war. How? Trade?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:48 - ID#335190)
Myrmidon @ 01:18 HITLER
Date: Mon Dec 29 1997 01:18
Myrmidon ( To all ) ID#345268:
Can someone please explain how Germany recovered after the big financial collapse in 1922 and got back on its feet with a sound currency?
How can a country go from a worthless currency to recovery?
******What really happened and they pulled it off?******

Although any number of magnates have been given credit for the financing of Hitler, including Fritz Thyssen, Henry Ford, and J.P. Morgan, they, as well as others, did provide millions of dollars for his political campains during the 1920's, just as they did for others who also had a chance of winning, but who disappeared and were never heard from again.

In December of 1932, it seemed inevitable to many observers of the German scene that Hitler was also ready for a toboggan slide into oblivion. Despite the fact that he had done well in national campaigns, he had spent all the money from his usual sources and now faced heavy debts.

In his book Aggression, Otto Lehmann-Russbeldt tells us that "Hitler was invited to a meeting at the Schroder Bank in Berlin on January 04, 1933.

The leading industrialists and bankers of Germany tided Hitler over his financial difficulties and enabled him to meet the enormous debt he had incurred in connection with the maintenance of his private army. In return, he promised to break the power of the Trade Unions. On May 2 1933 he fulfilled his promise."

Present at the January 04 1933 meeting were the Dulles brothers, John Foster Dulles and Allen W. Dulles of the New York law firm, Sullivan and Cromwell, which represented the Schroder Bank. The Dulles brothers often turned up at important meetings.

They had represented the United States at the Paris Peace Conference 1919 John Foster Dulles would die in harness as Eisenhower's Secretary of State, while Allen Dulles headed the Central Intelligence Agency for

Their apologists have seldom attempted to defend the Dulles brothers appearance at the meeting which installed Hitler as the Chancellor of Germany, preferring to pretend that it never happened.

Adolf Hitler disbanded the trade unions, formed a monopoly-dominated government front of labor, moved against every people's organization with the charge that it was a Communist conspiracy. Within a matter of months thousands of trade unionists, Communists, Jews, Socialists, Churchmen, and progressives were either executed or in concentration camps.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:49 - ID#345268)
To HighRise
Of course we need farfel's proof of shorting. Don't waste any time Farfel, do it NOW!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:51 - ID#252127)

I had a stud bull called fart-tel; any relation? He kept chasing those paper mache images of Emmy. that Borden's used to spotlight and he worked himself into a deep hole, about 6', poor bull, then we all have to go sometimes. Too bad it wasn't with the real thing. eh fart-tel.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:54 - ID#401460)
They stole from whom ever they conquered, Gold, Art, etc. They took the Gold out of the Jews teeth in the prison camps.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 01:55 - ID#345268)
To 6pac
Thank you for the detailed explanation. Good post.

Cyb Jeddak
(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:04 - ID#287193)
Farfel's Folly
The reasons you cite in support of continued weakness in gold pricing are incorrect. The Japanese citizens are buying gold bullion at a sharply higher rate. I think it is about 88% higher than last year. Demand for gold is at a record level. Forward sales buy producers in several instances are reversing. They are starting to buy back their positions. Some mines have closed. Almost all of them are uneconomical at $ 280.00. The Russian gold industry has reached the critical stage. Yeltsen is being asked to rescue the mining industry due to low gold prices. There are many fundamental reasons that gold has bottomed. A further decline to $ 260.00 would be wildly bullish. But I do not see this as happening.

Technically, it looks to me that gold is at the bottom of a multi year trading range. Some of the comments that government officials have made seem to me to be toward fighting deflation and driving down the price of the dollar.

In summary, it just seems to me that up is the more likely direction for gold.

Afterthought: Have you noticed that the Central Bank sales have not affected the price of gold until after the sale has been announced. This tells me that the market is absorbing the bullion orderly. It seems strange to me that anyone would buy central bank gold knowing that in time the announcement of the sale will move the price lower. Therefore, who is in fact buying? All of this is interesting. But I feel that the price is headed much higher. This is the time to accumulate.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:06 - ID#335190)
Jack @ 01:30
I do hope your understanding is a mis-understanding. Although, as Jay Gould said in 1886 " I can hire half the working class, to kill the other half " I do *HOPE* such actions & statements will remain in 1886. Take Care.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:06 - ID#401460)
Thank You, for the information.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:10 - ID#345268)
To Cyb Jeddak (ref. Farfel)
Don't confuse Farfel, he may change horses and go long on gold!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:18 - ID#316409)
Worst performance of ALL FUNDS in 1997...>>>>>>>>>>decline of 61% !!!
We now have the data on the WORST performing mutual funds in 1997. Guess which fund got hit the hardest and had the hugest decline? guessed it, the Gold/Gold shares "Midas Fund" takes top prize with a 61.2 % decline!!! Wow..then we have U.S. Global investors Gold fund with a whopping 58.25% decline and "Invesco Strategic Gold fund" down 57.5%

You know what I'm curious about, why is it that the "ANALysts" at Gold Eagle, Peutz, et al, don't report on this extremely important news, after they pushed so hard for some of these share investments in 1996 and early 1997? COuld it be that we need balanced reporting and advice? Folks without an agenda and ax to grind? I think so......

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:23 - ID#252127)

Jay Gould's opinions are prime reason's why Labor must remained united against being over powered by the monied interests, "the suits". I can't believe that the military would stoop to such lows as bullets can fly according to beliefs.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:29 - ID#345268)
Suggest that you and Farfel continue to debate so that we have a balanced panel. Some mediator ( s ) must be elected so that no insults and arguments occur.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:30 - ID#316409)
An investment that lost 90% of it's purchasing power
Then of course we have an investment that lost close to 90% of it's purchasing power relative to important necessary assets and commdities such as a home. namely, GOLD!

In my area, you could have had a 3 Br, 2 Ba home for approx. 90K in 1980 when Gold peaked. Today that same home ( even after 17 years depreciation and use ) goes for $320K +++

1980, 111 oz Au, = 1, 3 Br 2 Ba Ranch house, Silicon valley area.
1997, 1,000 oz. Au, = the same house!!!!!

Talk about a crash! 10 times as much Gold required for the same house, after 17 years depreciation on that house! I don't know where you can go to find a worse crash in the relative value of something than this, and these are REAL NUMBERS, not a hypothetical. I know, I was a part time real estate agent in 1980. Sure, you can say other areas had crashes in real estate prices ( like the CO story we had yesterday, etc. ) but overall, the trend has clearly been that Gold has lost horribly, NOT just in dollar value, but relative to all other important commodities as well. I've given the other comparisons a gallon of gas, a car, food, insurance, etc etc.

Gold as a store of value? It's been nothing short of the worlds worst disastor for anyone who bought it at the 1980 peak, when it was still being touted as the world's greatest investment by Granville, Ruff, et al.

Perhaps buying Gold was worse than just about any other financial calamity that could have befallen an investor in our lifetime,
outside of 100% loss derivitve type investments. Particularly if such investors ended up needing to use the value for children's college, a home down payment, retirement, foos during time of unemployment, etc.

A "safe" form of "insurance" for those who put a premium on intrinisic value? Gold has been, by ANY measure, just about the world's worst possible investment for security, value, financial insurance, or any other method of measurement.

We ought to ponder these historical facts before getting too worked up in bullish frenzy over Gold's recent mizerly gains ( which still render it 22% lower on the year...where ELSE could you have lost so much this year?? Other than a Gold shares mutual fund! )

Gllom and Doomers here warn of the coming crash and how badly paper investors will lose. Well, I think we've already seen a far more serious "crash" in our lifetimes, than any potential stock crash... namely the crash in the value of Gold for any poor scmuck who bought some when it was being touted so heavily, 17 years ago.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:32 - ID#316409)
@ Myrmidon... May it never be! Well, at least not after Wednesday. ( New Years resolutions.... )

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:35 - ID#316409)
@ RJ
Whassup wid Platinum RJ? Up $29 one day, down $15 the next? What gives? Slip me da math!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:37 - ID#345268)
@ LGB2
Lets forget history. Do you think gold is heading further down?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:41 - ID#255284)
it is so tempting to back a theory with facts and to ignore THE DAMNED DATA _ THE BOOK OF THE DAMNED
LGB2_A old chap. I have always, as you know, been in favour of your continuing posting, but the example using gold at 850 in 1980 is just a tad self-serving, no? It is really just as bad, in its own way, as your Nemesis Puetz' use of data, and you remember my post on his predictions. I am suprised you would stoop so low.

Charles Fort should be in your future too, perhaps?


(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:44 - ID#316409)
Quotes from "Bloomberg News"'s business
"Commodity prices will continue to fall" "Perhaps the most prominent loser this year was Gold" "It has been dire" ( Graham French, director of 700 million metals and mining fund for London based M&G Investment management ) , "Worst year I can remember in Gold investing",

"Gold has lost it's appeal as a safe haven in times of financial crisis. Even central banks...sold the metal in favor of better returns elsewhere"

"Further declines expected..."

etc etc etc...................................

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:48 - ID#316409)
@ Aurator...
Ahh but Aurator, I tried to make it clear ( as it surely is ) that this is a worst case example, yet the same principles apply to lesser examples in the intervening years. Of this concept, I stand by. See my other posts.

The crash of 1929, has been equaled by the far more brutal crash of Gold...which has lasted for 17 years. Why do we not speak of this crash eh? Yet give so much credence to the TOPS of stock markets, and their subsequent declines? No, I don't think your comparison of my ponits to Puetz's are analagous in any way shape or form.

I do not, after all, call for Gold's 60% decline next month based on a "full moon".

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:52 - ID#345268)
So commodities will continue to fall, and paper will continue to grow! Isn't this suspicious? Such statements reinforce "The Mass Deception" concept.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 02:57 - ID#316409)
Umm, well I don't subscribe to the paper rise/commodity fall concept in the coming year, at least not across the board. I think Silver will make further gains, Platinum ditto, stocks will fall ( but not in a harrific crash a la Puetz ) , and some commodiites such as copper and oil will continue to fall.

Thus I'm in Silver, Platinum, cash, and making short term spec. plays.

EVENTUALLY, at some point we'll see a 2 year bear in stocks, bull in Gold, and then we'll revert back to the old pattern of paper being the best investment for capital appreciation. As it has been for most of our century.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 03:00 - ID#316409)
@ Later Bugs
Good night/morning, back at ya from work in a few'll be a slow day, metals gettin creamed overseas

(Mon Dec 29 1997 03:02 - ID#223329)
look at BEMA GOLD for easy return

(Mon Dec 29 1997 03:04 - ID#316409)
@ Scoundrel
Bema huh? Easy return huh? That's what I heard a few months ago re Pegasus..when it was worth 15 times more.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 03:07 - ID#345268)
@ LGB2
I like your objective analysis. It is unfortunate that emotions ( many times ) override one's objective judgements, which I think is the case with many of us.

I survived the gold stock crash because I had diversified into non gold stocks. At least I survived.

If my other stocks lose 50%, and my gold stocks double, I will be still ahead ( the split is 50-50 ) . Survival is the name of the game.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 03:07 - ID#223329)
have you read about their deal with placer dome stock has been up 15% in two shorten days last week since this week is when the action occurs and if gold rebounds to 320 oz the short covers will be setting in and bema will reach it's real value of 8- 11 dollar range

(Mon Dec 29 1997 03:17 - ID#345268)
@ scound
The bottom line is that if gold doesn't lift SOON, you and I will be decorating our bathrooms with gold certificates. Those who hold the physical will not be wiped out. They can afford to wait.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 03:19 - ID#223329)
have faith the saviour is near BEMA GOLD

(Mon Dec 29 1997 03:27 - ID#432148)
NY Times gold article of interest

(Mon Dec 29 1997 03:33 - ID#432148)
NY Times gold article of interest II
Have to register to get at it but it is free ;- )

(Mon Dec 29 1997 03:53 - ID#432148)
Jack, ur 01:30 re US troop poll
Jack, I would be very interested in where you heard of this as I have often wondered as a retired USAF reservist what reaction would be if our military was ordered to shoot at US citizens.

Monkee Person
(Mon Dec 29 1997 04:11 - ID#288105)
I recall a tv news magazine interview w/ SOG Commander, and Army Special Forces who were taken to task for an offbase publication of theirs. Your subject was mentioned.

Paraphrasing: an Army SF sergeant said those ( the citizens ) are the people we're sworn to protect. Without hesitation he added that he would turn his weapon on the ones who issued the orders.

However, what would happen when push comes to shove?

My guess is "they" would have the more duty-minded off on some UN escapade.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 04:36 - ID#283121)

CRUNCH - agree totally with your 00:33 post, except for one point. The Fed during the 1930s was not constrained by the link to gold. What actually happened was they made huge mistakes. Gold actually flowed in to the US during the 1930s as the quantity of dollars reduced by 20%. The Fed therefore could have, and should have, responded by increasing liquidity far more than they did. The fact that they didn't was due to an internal power struggle within the Fed itself . The gold reserves would only have become a limiting factor when gold began to exit the US in large quantities. However, they learned from their mistakes and since that time they have, without fail, erred on the side of liquidity. Nowadays, as you point out, there are no limits whatsoever to the amount of money which can be created. As fear of deflation takes hold the danger is that too much money will be supplied.
Cheers, sas

(Mon Dec 29 1997 05:07 - ID#255151)
Predictions For 1998

G'day Kitcoites. Here are some thoughts about the upcoming year. I think a lot of simmering problems will come to a boil. On the economic front,the SE Asian situation, the EMU, Japan, China and Russia are all looming and will affect the U.S. in a big way in 1998. I really have no clue if it will be inflation, deflation, or both, but affect us it will. Be it by inflation or deflation, we will lose real wealth. Probably a lot. I believe Y2K will enter mainstream thought in 1998 and be perceived as a real threat. As Europe and Asia face up to this problem, look for some real panic in those economies. On the political front, I think the Administration will suffer big time when the economy worsens. This will further complicate the U.S. Dollar, economy, foreign policy, etc. Against this backdrop of the upcoming year, I believe Gold will do very well, and will invest accordingly. Here's to a most prosperous 1998 to my fellow Kitcoites!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 05:09 - ID#398105)
Aurator ..........Japan, India, and gold


I don't have the full information concerning talks between Japan and India. However, given that India has substantial exploration and mining potential for GOLD, on par with Western Australia, it makes you wonder wheither or not GOLD forms part of their equation.

I posted some information concerning the gold potential of India, subject to enhancement and implementation of "modern" exploration and mining methos. To reiterate, India has large surface areas covered by Archaean and Proterozic rocks, including the following regions: Aravalli Bundelkhand, Dharwar, Bhandara, Singhbhum, Eastern Ghats, and also in Sri Lanka. One of the principal mining areas is the Kolar area situated on the Mysore plateau. Gold mineralisation, mined by traditional underground methods, occurs over a surface area 25 by 1 kilometres, to 4 kilometres depth, with grades 6 to 15 g/t. Historically, 700 tonnes of gold has been mined. This is BIG, with huge upside.

The Indian mining scene has not "developed" due to problems in re-defining the Mining and Investment Laws. It will be interesting to see how rapidly this may change. One may expect an acceleration of gold production from India, financied by Japan?

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 05:20 - ID#398105)
JTF.............Japan, India and gold.


Concerning your comments on the Saudis, Japan and oil, any further comment on India, Japan and gold..........please refer to my earlier post.

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 05:45 - ID#398105)
John Disney..........Anglo


Your interpretation of Anglo's diversification is indeed correct. They, Anglo/Minorco, have established an office in Perth in Western Asutralia during the last two months. As you know, Australian stocks are "cheap" with large exploration/mining upside.

A common practice of most Australian exploration/mining companies has been to establish resources/reserves to 50 metres depth. Early days.

Aye, Haggis

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 06:32 - ID#238295)
LGB: Gold has indeed been a horrible investment these last 17 years. But if you believe in reversion to the mean and buying something when nobody else wants it, gold could be one of the best investments the next few years.

The yellow's disastrous performance again shows that losses must always be cut short no matter how much one loves a particular investment.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 06:37 - ID#333131)
JGLD up .62% in a down gold market

(Mon Dec 29 1997 07:34 - ID#426220)

Internationally acclaimed financial analyst shares his latest brilliance with the GOLD-EAGLE readership. A few cardinal excerpts:

We are currently witnessing one of the greatest events in
world history, a total and complete economic collapse.

...Korean Banks have borrowed billions of U.S. dollars. The collapse of the won has resulted in major foreign exchange losses for the banks. Bankrupt borrowers and large foreign exchange losses will lead to the failure of most banks in Korea.

The IMF cannot alter the financial collapse of South Korea. Every
dollar lent by the IMF will be used to bail out a foreign lender. That is all. It replaces private debt with public debt. It does not alter the financial strength of Koreans' Bankrupt Companies.

Japan is in the same boat... only the Nippon boat is FAR LARGER! KUTYNS full report at:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 07:41 - ID#333131)
Opinion piece on China and its banking problems in today's Washington Post

(Mon Dec 29 1997 07:51 - ID#426220)

Rick Ackerman regularly contributes market analysis to the Sunday San Francisco Examiner and has also written numerous times for
Barron's. Presently, he is bullish on GOLD, and VERY bearish on common stocks.

He observes The result has been the creation of a global credit bubble that is about to collapse and take the stock market with it. The size of the bubble is the reason why the market will not
return to health with the 10 to 20 percent correction that
nearly everyone on Wall Street seems to be hoping for.

Somewhere down the road, when share prices have been cut in half, the excess of the credit system will be cited as the cause of the collapse.

Most likely, gold stocks, bullion and long-term Treasuries will be the best place to be, along with some foreign debt instruments. But don't count on being able to shift your money when the trumpets sound, for there will be no time then.

Detailed comprehensive report at:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 07:58 - ID#333131)
UN proposal to give IMF more power to snoop, so they don't do so much harm.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 08:12 - ID#26793)
Your post at 00:33 is quite valid. The Fed will protect the banks. You recall that the Fed is a private bank put there exactly for that purpose. It should more properly be called the "Office of Banking Welfare".

That fact does not negate my point. Deflation will happen in spite of the newly created money because it will stay in the bank. It will not be delivered to the needy. The money will not be loaned out until the next boom cycle, perhaps 20-30 years later. That is when the newly created money will finally become inflationary.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 08:18 - ID#364147)
WSJ gold company BS

December 29, 1997

Some Gold Firms See Glitter
In Rivals' Cheap Stock Prices


Gold companies are down, but they aren't out of the action.

Last week, Homestake Mining Co. said it agreed to acquire Plutonic
Resources Ltd. of Sydney, Australia, for $640 million in stock. And
several other, mostly large gold companies say they are exploring

Gold stocks generally have been beaten up as the price of gold has fallen
below $300 an ounce to 18-year lows. But the most efficient gold
companies see a chance to snap up promising reserves at reasonable
prices, which could help cut their production costs. "We see this as an
opportunity to pick up some good properties," said Karen Gross, a vice
president at Royal Gold Inc. of Denver. "We're looking all over."

Prudential Securities Inc. analyst J. Clarence Morrison said he sees Amax
Gold Inc., Echo Bay Mines Ltd., Getchell Gold Corp., Crown Resources
Corp., Golden Star Resources Ltd. and TVX Gold Inc. as potential
targets. Many of these companies, along with other U.S., Canadian and
Australian producers, are shutting down less-efficient mines, laying off
workers, deferring projects and cutting back on exploration.

Echo Bay Mines, for instance, will lay off 100 of 450 workers at its
McCoy/Cove mine in Nevada in January, with another 20 to 30 layoffs to
follow next year, said a spokeswoman. Two development projects will be
deferred. "Everything is being reviewed across the board," she said.

Getchell Gold, Denver, recently announced it would lay off 100
employees, one-fifth of its work force. "That makes them look more
attractive for a possible takeover," said Michele Stell, managing director of
the Denver Gold Group, a trade association.

Potential Predator and Prey

Some companies are seen as potential predator and prey. Amax Gold of
Denver is viewed as a takeover target not only because of its attractive
assets, but also because its stock has been battered, falling below $2 a
share in early December, from $7.625 a share last February. But Amax
says it is looking for additional properties even as it cuts spending.

The company benefits from a hedging program that allows it to get $25 to
$30 an ounce over the spot price. And it produces gold at an average cost
of less than $200 an ounce, thanks largely to two new mines in Alaska and
Russia with average production costs of $190 an ounce. "We've worked
hard on our costs for times just like these," said spokesman Mike Rounds.

Battle Mountain Gold Co., Houston, also has positioned itself to weather
the storm while looking for good deals. The company closed three mines
in the last year and will close a Chilean mine in January. Battle Mountain
cut its exploration budget for next year to $25 million from $35 million and
narrowed its targets to eight countries from 16. Still, said Ian Bayer,
president and chief executive officer, "We believe we can grow in this
environment." The company would pay for any acquisition in stock rather
than cash, Mr. Bayer said.

Some analysts said that Homestake's purchase of Plutonic shows that
acquisitions these days are likely to use stock rather than cash; buyers will
need their cash reserves to develop whatever properties they acquire. And
while stock prices are low, even for healthier companies, Ms. Stell said
potential acquirees aren't likely to balk at stock because of its high
potential for rebound.

And many higher-cost mining companies are in such straits "that it would
be difficult for their shareholders to avoid taking stock if a deal came along
that was attractive," said Mr. Morrison of Prudential.

The most attractive targets have proven low-cost reserves that would
lower the acquiring company's average production cost. Daniel
McConvey, an analyst at Goldman Sachs who doesn't expect a gold
rebound soon, said that Canadian and Australian accounting rules don't
usually allow acquiring companies to pool their accounting with companies
they buy; that gives U.S. gold companies a financial edge because they
don't have to write off acquisition premiums as goodwill.

Selective Buying

But analysts don't expect a raft of purchases because many of the available
properties may be too expensive to develop at current prices. "We're
looking for our next property," said William Reid, president and chief
executive officer of U.S. Gold, a small Golden, Colo., company with a
40% stake in one mine not yet in production. "But we'll have to be much
more selective."

Meanwhile, at least two of the biggest companies most often touted as
potential buyers, Newmont Mining Corp. and Barrick Gold Corp., say
they aren't actively shopping.

Newmont, the biggest gold-mining concern outside of South Africa, also is
one of the lowest-cost gold producers, with an average cost of about
$188 an ounce. But Newmont executives, thinking that the low gold prices
wouldn't last, didn't engage in much forward-selling, so now they are
concentrating on cutting costs.

Newmont cut its quarterly dividend Dec. 2 to three cents from 12 cents a
share, which would save it $60 million over a year. Doug Hock, a
spokesman, said the company may defer a planned joint venture in
Uzbekistan, and may trim its exploration budget for next year from $102
million this year, though it is not clear by how much. Mr. Hock said any
cuts won't affect the company's Nevada operations, its massive Batu Hijau
project in Indonesia, or its Minera Yanacocha mine in Peru, which will
produce one million ounces of gold this year at a cash cost of $97 an

Buybacks vs. Acquisitions

Barrick Gold, Toronto, said it plans to buy back as many as 31 million
shares, or 8.3%, of its shares outstanding, because it believes they are

In a recent meeting with analysts, Barrick said the buyback made more
sense than acquisitions. Barrick, which has perhaps the most aggressive
hedging program of any gold producer, locked in prices of more than
$400 an ounce for about 10 million ounces of its future gold production,
helping insulate it from the fall in prices. Still, it took a third-quarter charge
of $385 million to close five mines in the U.S. and Chile. At the same time,
Barrick is spending $260 million to build its Pierina mine in Peru, which it
expects will produce 750,000 ounces of gold a year at a cost of less than
$100 an ounce, beginning next year.

One big company still on the prowl is Homestake. While some analysts
said the 86% premium it paid over Plutonic's closing price Friday was too
much, Jack E. Thompson, president and chief executive officer, said the
purchase will cut Homestake's cost of production to about $225 an ounce
next year from about $240. Mr. Thompson said Homestake continues to
court other companies, and might make other acquisitions next year.

Return to top of page
Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 08:25 - ID#26793)
I think your post of 7:58 is the result of the discovery that the CB of Thailand was playing the currency market just like any speculator looking for a quick buck. They lost big; as have many other banks we have not heard from yet. Here in the U.S. all the big banks do it. If they win, they win big. If they loose just call in the taxpayers. This is a nice banking game that you couldn't play back when gold got in the way. We should establish a new federal agency. Call it the FGIP, Federal Gamblers Insurance Program. It should be available at ticket counters where there are flights to Las Vegas.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 08:28 - ID#93232)
....Pull over the jeep, lieutenant...."I've been here before"
"My God, I love it." And to those who chance and persevere will come the reward for which they seek. Personally, I don't give a damn about the monetary...I'm here to fight for the cause.
If the battle, which has been predicted, ensues...I will fight for our golden tool is drawn. Let it begin.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 08:32 - ID#426220)
Excerpt from a New York Times article:

Still, some influential people continue to see an important role for gold. Among them, paradoxically, may be Greenspan. A long-time advocate of the gold standard, he has spoken publicly in the last few years of the
beneficial discipline that would come from linking the dollar's value to

(Mon Dec 29 1997 08:35 - ID#426220)


Long-time veteran precious metals analyst starts his report with a Point & Future chart of LONDON GOLD, going all the way back to 1980. It clearly shows a TRIPLE-BOTTOM at about the $280 level ( 1982, 1985 and the present ) . The last two times it reached Dines Buy Zone, the yellow zoomed to the $500 area:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 08:45 - ID#30238)
some thoughts for debate
- - At the root of capitalism is greed.
-- A characteristic of greed is that it only stops feeding itself, its hunger, when it has died.
--Could it be that the market feeding frenzy we have been witnessing in the past several months is the act of a voracious system that is showing all the signs of an endangered animal that will protect itself with anything/at any cost/any way it can?
--If this is so, we must not think this ( market ) force will just roll over in this struggle and give way to ( market ) fundamentals.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 08:47 - ID#333131)
Donald, Help leads to control
I agree with your observation and your satirical gambler's insurance goes right to the heart of the problem of bailouts. I've spent most of my life in a helping profession and have learned little about how to help people without harming them except through teaching and conveying information. The natural inclination of the helper is to try to circumvent the disastrous effects of his aid with control techniques. This is why liberals ( which I once was one ) gravitate toward becoming tyrants. I expect no less from the international "helping institutions".

(Mon Dec 29 1997 08:52 - ID#364147)
More Canadian Postal CRAP+ Randy MAPP is a LIER
Nice try Randy but the spitting incident was TAPED on a security camera ( DUH ) ...Just anothe case of union 'goonism' that has gotten Nova Scotia so far ( ?? ) :I am not a monster," says Randy Mapp, president of the Nova
Local of the Canadian Union of Postal Workers and alleged

Canada Post fired Mapp and six other postal employees Dec.
12, a week after a nationwide postal strike ended with workers
being legislated back to their jobs. In Mapp's case, the company
alleged he had spat at Maritime Trading Company president
Kent Groves during a demonstration at the direct mail
operator's office.

Mapp called the allegation "an outright lie" during an interview

(Mon Dec 29 1997 08:54 - ID#364147)
Deck update
After some snow shoveling 'the show' will go onnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn...bbMl dudes~~~~~~~~~~

(Mon Dec 29 1997 08:56 - ID#286199)
Bonds for Sale
Selling by Foreign Banks
Takes Toll on 3-Month Bills


One of the big worries that has long plagued the bond market is that foreign-government central banks will begin selling their vast cache of U.S. Treasurys in the event of a world economic crisis.

Well, it's already happening, and sure enough, it's hurting prices of shorter-term Treasury securities -- sending yields, which move in the opposite direction of prices, upward.

This is the case even though the bellwether 30-year bond is doing well, with its yield tumbling below 6% in recent weeks to 5.90% on Friday. What is happening is that bullish fundamentals are propping up longer-term bonds, aided, apparently, by buying by foreign investors, as opposed to the investors'governments.

Shorter-term Treasury security prices have fallen sharply in recent days on what many Wall Street traders believe is a surge of selling by Asian central banks. These banks are dumping dollar-denominated securities to curb the dollar's rise and raise funds to buy their own currencies, amid the continuing Asian economic turmoil. The yield on three-month bills, for example, has jumped in a matter of days, trading at a yield of 5.40% late last week, up from 5.17% on Dec. 12 and 4.93% on Sept. 24.

"More and more attention is being paid to the erosion of Treasurys, especially three-month bills, which are at their highest discounted yield levels in two years," says William Sullivan, chief money-market economist
at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. "There have been powerful liquidations, probably from heavy sales by foreign central banks, led by the Bank of Japan and other Asian central banks."

While central banks shed little light on how they operate, and traders also detect selling by the Bank of Canada, as it defends the Canadian dollar, Asian central-bank selling seems to be leading the charge.
"I've seen selling in sizable amounts in short-end, and I'm assuming it's to a large extent the Bank of Japan," adds David Horner, a senior fixed-income strategist at Merrill Lynch, who estimates that as much as $9 billion of Treasury sales from the BOJ took place in recent weeks.

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank also suggest that foreign central banks have been selling Treasurys. Custody holdings at the Fed were down to $615.850 billion as of Dec. 17 from $637.946 billion on Oct. 1. Although still a drop in the bucket, analysts say the selling is having an effect on the market.

"The data are pretty striking," says Thomas Sowanick, Merrill Lynch's chief fixed-income strategist. Things could get worse for Treasurys, some investors worry, if foreign selling spreads to securities of longer
maturities. Indeed, worries about foreign selling put pressure on all types of Treasurys last week. "The market is fearful that there's an increasing chance the massive liquidations will spill over to longer
maturities," says Mr. Sullivan.

If the prospective Japanese fiscal stimulus plan is embraced, foreign buying could drop still further. The yet-to-be implemented plan features sales of more than $77 billion of new Japanese bonds, which could help siphon some interest from U.S. securities, especially if the figure is increased, as many expect. "It would represent new supply, and any issuance of new bonds with substantial duration would be competitive," says Mr. Horner.

Still, most analysts doubt the prospective Japanese issuance will be of long enough duration to attract many international investors. And unless the dollar falters, stirring interest in Japanese bonds, the puny yields on Japanese securities are unlikely to hurt the U.S. market too much.

Bond bears have spent the past 20 years painting a doomsday scenario of skyrocketing U.S. bond yields as a result of foreigners, led by Japanese investors,repatriating their vast holdings of U.S. bonds amid a currency crisis. But even as foreign central banks seem to be selling short-term U.S. securities, other Asian investors appear to be buying longer-term U.S. securities. This private buying has helped the "yield curve," or gap between short-term and long-term yields, flatten remarkably in recent months. Late last week, the curve reached its flattest level since March

The yen's relative stability in recent weeks serves as evidence that private buying is offsetting the central-bank selling, and unless the dollar falters, or difficulties in Japan multiply, it's unlikely that
Japanese investors will repatriate their vast Treasury investments. And the surge of foreign central-bank selling is unlikely to cause real damage to U.S. bonds, unless foreign investors join in and the market's bullish fundamentals dissipate.

Perhaps the most important lesson from the recent bond selling is that U.S. bond prices can rise without massive participation from foreigners. The Asian market turmoil could very well help to disprove the doomsday scenarios, by demonstrating that in times of world-wide crisis, Treasurys can often withstand significant selling by foreigners, thanks to their
safe-haven status.

"As good as the market's fundamentals are, selling by anyone will be accommodated eagerly," says John Williams, Bankers Trust's chief global-market analyst. "The worse the Asian story gets, the better it gets for U.S. Treasurys."

(Mon Dec 29 1997 09:12 - ID#23782)
It started out being a somewhat scarry story, but
end up with a happy ending. I think I'll save
it for the kids tonight. They love those kind of
fairy tales.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 09:14 - ID#93232)
The battle to be fought is between a small tribe of the good and the legions of the evil. The good has as its standard the moral concepts of truth, accountability and conservation. The evil derives its power from the brilliant deception of the masses with promises of prosperity without work and security from idle trust.

The most distasteful aspect of the evil's deception is their recruitment of many fine youth, who, with their innocent will to contribute, have taken up the greedy cause of their power-crazed, greedy, mongering leaders. These holders of our future are being taught that their base societal contribution is to solicite the life savings of their brethern using whatever langual abilities they possess to create a better any moral is justified.

These lying, selfish bastards must be stopped...and our youth must be retaught that the mother of provision is creation, hard work and unselfish contribution to all people. I anxiously await the battle...My God, LET IT BEGIN.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 09:20 - ID#333131)
The "semi" part of semi-retirement beckons today. bbl

(Mon Dec 29 1997 09:21 - ID#347457)
Oris, it's Czech. Born at the end of WWII in Prague, left for the US 18 years ago when I thought there is no hope that it would change in my lifetime. I judge what's happening in that corner of the world based on my first hand experience, and overall European afair the same way ( my parents lived through both WW and the mess in between ) .

How about yourself?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 09:22 - ID#401349)
I am enlisting in the noble cause. Can I be a general?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 09:26 - ID#426220)


One of the big worries that has long plagued the bond market is that foreign-government central banks will begin selling their vast cache of U.S. Treasuries in the event of a world economic crisis.

Well, it's already happening, and sure enough, it's hurting prices of shorter-term Treasury securities -- sending yields, which move in the opposite direction of prices, upward.

Short-term Treasury security prices have fallen sharply in recent days on what many Wall Street traders believe is a surge of selling by Asian central banks. These banks are dumping dollar-denominated securities to curb the dollar's rise and raise funds to buy their own currencies, amid the continuing Asian economic turmoil. The yield on three-month bills, for example, has jumped in a matter of days, trading at a yield of 5.40% late last week, up from 5.17%. We are rapidly converging on AN INVERTED YIELD CURVE... which has always spelled the death knell for stocks and bonds.

"More and more attention is being paid to the erosion of Treasuries, especially three-month bills, which are at their highest discounted yield levels in two years," says William Sullivan, chief money-market economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. "There have been powerful liquidations, PROBABLY FROM HEAVY SALES BY FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS, LED BY THE BANK OF JAPAN AND OTHER ASIAN CENTRAL BANKS."

The above revelations by the WSJ were forecasted MANY MONTHS AGO by the ORACLE. The dire ramifications for the stock market and bonds will be devastating. On the other side of the coin ( gold, naturally ) this will propel yellow metal prices into the ionosphere.

The ORACLE proves beyond a shadow of doubt that the only defense southeast Asians had... AND WILL HAVE - against the on-going currency chaos, stock market turmoil and the regions crumbling bank system is to invest in GOLD. The staunchest and most fanatical anti-GOLDBUGS are obliged to concede to the irrefutable evidence that GOLD is the ONLY SAFE HARBOR vis--vis the looming and devastating Domino Effect engulfing the area:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 09:32 - ID#93232)
We have no generals...but I will follow you. I must now go to the office where I pump oil to give it away. Carry on!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 09:40 - ID#286199)
Bonds on CNBC
The talking heads on CNBC have been discussing the foreign sales of bonds. They look and sound a bit nervous. At least one half of the U.S. debt has been refinanced with short term bills and notes ranging in maturity from 3 months to 5 years. The current administration did this to take advantage of the lower rates. Now the holders of this debt, Japan, China and others are selling. The only positive spin available is that "private" purchases will cover all of these sales. I'm not buying, are you?

Emerald Heights
(Mon Dec 29 1997 09:47 - ID#227311)
Just witnessed Sunrise over San Diego...So spectacular, makes
pros & cons of gold seem so unimportant...EH

(Mon Dec 29 1997 09:59 - ID#356379)
Overseas gold market prices

Good mornin' to all from the Ridgerunner.

Kitco prices seem stuck on last week. Is gold not being traded anywhere around the globe today? Heck of a holiday...

Can someone please post gold and silver spot prices? If nothing else we can get trend data. Thanks.

Gusto Oro
(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:01 - ID#377235)
Re: ITD 1:14 on Russia
No I didn't hear that one but it adds to my point on Russia. Students at an elementary school in Eastern Russia were recently polled about what they wanted to do for a living after leaving school. 1 in 9 boys wanted to be hired killers. 20% of the girls wanted to be prostitutes. The country is a basket case.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:08 - ID#286230)

(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:08 - ID#426220)

Noted ORACLE OF HONG KONG, Milhouse, provides yet another astute and insightful critique of the Nippon Financial Malaise. Milhouse is decidedly bearish, and feels the rapidly falling Nikkei is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better!

In Japan, the economic recession continues relentlessly. Furthermore, major falls in the stock market appear very likely in 1998, wiping out whatever capital remains in the troubled Japanese institutions.

I believe there is a greater chance that the Japanese people will start accumulating GOLD to protect their substantial savings...

Milhouses clear-sighted and perceptive report may be found at:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:08 - ID#254269)
@ Donald; I picked up my New Years reading from my local library over
the weekend. I got Manchester's book that you recommended; World
Lit only by Fire and also another book titled The Traders from Traders Press. Will read Traders first ( as it is much shorter ) , then tackle
WLOBF. Thanks for the recommendation.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:12 - ID#426220)
Ridgerunner ( Overseas gold market prices ) :

Major Gold Trading Centers Around the World. Many Gold price links, including closing bullion and gold coin prices. Also shows live GOLD TRADING in London, Singapore, Tokyo & the COMEX:
(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:28 - ID#431203)
Emerald Heights & SD sunrise.
Yes, it was magnificent.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:30 - ID#26793)
Bank of China says "losses are serious, risks are high"

(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:33 - ID#426220)
Ridgerunner: You may WATCH the day trading of GOLD, PLATINUM, Palladium, Silver, XAU & HUI at GOLD-EAGLE Intra-Day Charts webpage. Also, shown are 30-year T-Bond and Crude Oil prices, in addition to the "Paper" Indices ( DOW, S&P, NASDAQ & Utilities ) :

(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:33 - ID#26793)
Bank of England "advises" British bankers to rollover Korean loans

(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:34 - ID#298259)
Campbell Resources - CCH
Anyone know who's buying? Currently traded 10,220,000 shrs...30 times its avg. vol.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:37 - ID#254269)
Today's Wall Street Journal has two very interesting artciles; Paeg A2 has

an article titled "Some Gold Firms See Glitter in Rival's Cheap Stocks" and the editorial page ( Page A11 ) has a VERY interesting article
titled "The Dangerous Expansion of Forfeiture Laws".
If anyone has access to WSJ on=line, can they post the URL's
( hope that is the correct computer term ) .

(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:37 - ID#26793)
Meanwhile, in Korea, parliment fails to agree on banking reform.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:43 - ID#33180)
WSJ online
Avalon: but you must subscribe. This also gives you Barrons online. You'd pay $29 US a year for both, if you get the print version of WSJ as well.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:51 - ID#254269)
@ elf; thanks for your 10.43. I do not subscribe to the online service but

both of these particular articles are so important ( particularly the Asset
Forfeiture article, that I recommend them strongly to all viewers.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 10:59 - ID#426220)
GOLD BETWEEN $3,500 TO $8,400...?

This prediction gains tremendous credibility after you read the credentials of its author:

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

If we go back to an earlier section of this paper, we observed that after 1971, when the artificial pressure was lifted from gold prices that prices advanced to a peak of 24 times the old price and settled around approximately 10 times the old price. No two events in any market develop precisely the same, but just as an
exercise, if something similar happens this time, gold prices might peak near $8,400.00, and settle around $3,500.00 an ounce.

The remote possibility that these numbers can be correct, is enough evidence to make it easy to understand why the central bankers and high government officials around the world want to denigrate, denounce, discard, disown and dislike gold, plus keep prices low. It makes one want to take time to consider what the implications of anything remotely resembling this happening might be. The last time gold had been held down artificially for 37 years. This time, so far, it has only been 17, which may lessen the next rise. On the other hand we have asset markets that have reached such lofty levels, where no less an authority than the FED Chairman has described the situation, as long as a year ago, as "Irrational Exuberance". So who can tell? Let's not lose sight, while we are pondering the question, of the trillions and trillions of fiat megabyte dollars, yen, marks, and what have you, that are whizzing around the world electronically every minute of every hour of every day. They have to end up buying something, and it might just be gold one of these days.

Part II of his mind-blowing essay is located at:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 11:00 - ID#286230)
Canada Stockwatch shows no trades for cch yet today.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 11:14 - ID#298259)
CCH trades on the NYSE

(Mon Dec 29 1997 11:25 - ID#426220)

The key to financial independence is to know who will win the hidden battle between the U.S. dollar and gold.

International Econo-political analyst shares his critique of Kutyn and Milhouse financial opinions of the Southeast Asian currency crisis, stock market meltdown and crumbling banking systems vis--vis George Soros "REFLEXIVITY" THEORY. Truly an intellectual erudite analytical work. See:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 11:36 - ID#269409)
ECO gettin killed
DOW at 7777.7, way up today as Puetz predicted. Must be a lucky omen. Echo Bay mines meanwhile, off 7%.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 11:50 - ID#22956)
Selling Mark to Buy Dollar.....and dow........hmmmmmmm....
Yes my Mark is getting KICKED this a.m.......dadburnit!!!!

and there goes gold............glug, glug, glug...the beat goes on. the flight to quality


Bill El Zebub
(Mon Dec 29 1997 11:59 - ID#261352)
Russians return to use of "worthless" Kopec (sp) hard currency via CNBC
The russians will be carring the here to fore worthless coin again.
Whats wrong with paper?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 12:18 - ID#335190)
Suharto @ Indonesia Central Bankers investigated
December 29, 1997
Indonesia police question former bank directors

JAKARTA, Indonesia ( Reuters ) - Police are questioning three former directors of the Indonesian central bank, Bank Indonesia, in connection with corruption charges, the official Antara news agency reported Monday.

"They have been questioned by the police since Dec. 24 on suspicion of corruption and they have been named suspects.

Indonesia said on Dec. 22 that four central bank directors had been replaced with immediate effect. Hendrobudiyanto, Heru Soepraptomo, Mansjurdin Nurdin and Paul Soetopo were replaced by Iwan Prawiranata, Sjahril Sabirin, Miranda Gultom and Aulia Pohan, according to a decree signed by President Suharto.

The decree did not give the reason for the replacements.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 12:26 - ID#335190)
Brazil Goldmines @ No bids
December 29, 1997
No bids for Brazil goldmine after second deadline

RIO DE JANEIRO, Dec 29 ( Reuters ) - Brazil's regional state mining company in Bahia ( CPBM ) has again postponed its tender for an exploration concession in the Maria Preta goldmine and could cancel it if no bids emerge soon, a spokesman said Monday.

The tender was announced in late September and originally fixed for November 18. No bidders appeared and CPBM postponed the deadline until December 15, but there was still no interest.

The exploration concession covers some 34,000 hectares, while the Maria Preta mine along with its immediate surroundings indicates an underground resource potential of 48 tonnes of gold to a depth of 300 metres.

In 1996 the Barrick Gold Corporation of Canada signed a contract, through its subsidiary Barrick do Brasil Mineracao Ltda, with CBPM to prospect for and mine gold in Bahia.

Mr. Mick
(Mon Dec 29 1997 12:36 - ID#345321)
Inger on CNBC
Gene Inger was on CNBC this morning, don't know if you all caught it, but he said things were going to change around the middle of January. Ron Insane-a then cut him off.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 12:45 - ID#269409)
@ Pegasus
Anyone have any idea when an announcement might be made, or when the Aussie's may make a decision as to whether a re-org. or liquidation may take place?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:05 - ID#269409)
Optimism re Asia

Monday December 29, 12:14 pm Eastern Time

FOCUS- European bourses soar on optisim over Asia

( adds European bourse closures, Fed meetings )

By Hugh Pain

LONDON, Dec 29 ( Reuters ) - A flurry of bankers' meetings aimed at ensuring that crisis-hit South Korea can meet its obligations was enough
to push European stock markets steeply higher on Monday.

Milan and Zurich ended at record levels, Madrid and Amsterdam climbed more than three percent and Europe's leading bourses, London and
Frankfurt, gained nearly two percent apiece amid general optimism that the Asian dragon was back in its cage -- or nearly.

The Federal Reserve was meeting with major U.S. commercial banks to discuss South Korea and Fed officials were later to meet
representatives of European and Japanese banks.

Mark 1.7859/64 Yen 129.90/95 Sterling 1.6702/12
Gold $290.30/0.80 -6.15 ( pvs PM fix ) Brent $16.92 -0.41
FTSE 100 5112.4 +98.5 CAC 2939.46 +68.19 DAX 4197.37 +75.58

The New York Fed said it had invited executives of leading U.S. commercial and investment banks to discuss the issue.

Earlier, German commercial banks met with the Bundesbank and the finance ministry, and leading British banks with exposure to South
Korea held the first of a series of discussions.

The Fed said no formal statement was currently planned, and a banking source in London insisted: ``Absolutely nothing has been agreed.''

But most analysts believe that further help for South Korea will emerge from the meetings along lines forecast in Monday's Wall Street

The financial daily said major U.S. lenders had agreed to roll over some existing loans to Korean banks and that the talks would address the
possibility of U.S. banks underwriting a series of big new loans to South Korea, whose economy has been ravaged by large corporate
bankruptcies and a steep depreciation of share prices and the won.

Traders said European bourse gains were exaggerated by thin volume. But amid the general optimism, the Dow shot up nearly 100 points
shortly after the opening and was holding its gains as Europe closed. The dollar also benefited, resolutely holding to around 130 yen and
1.7875 German marks.

Analysts said only fears of Bank of Japan intervention curbed the dollar from soaring higher.

Japan's powerful Vice-Minister for international affairs, Eisuke Sakakibara, signalled Tokyo's intention on Sunday when he said on television:

``We are determined to stop excessive yen weakness...If necessary, we will not hesitate to intervene in the market in a way which would be
surprising to the market.''

While nothing had yet emerged from the Fed discussions, the German banks' coordinator, Deutsche Bank AG ( OTC BB:DTBKY - news;
DBKG.F ) , said they had agreed to support an international private sector initiative to provide South Korea with sufficient currency reserves to
meet its obligations to public and private sector creditors.

``The participants of the discussions regarded it as a priority to safeguard the stability of the international financial system,'' Deutsche said in a

In London, HSBC Holdingsber of days to talk through the possibilities,`` a banking source at a top British commercial bank said

None of Britain's main lenders -- Lloyds TSB Group Plc ( quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: LLOY.L ) , Barclays ( quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland:
BARC.L ) Plc, National Westminster Bank ( quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: NWB.L ) Plc and HSBC -- would give details of their individual
exposure to South Korea.

``We are comfortable with the level of exposure we now have,'' a source at one of the major banks said.

The Bank of England declined to comment on suggestions it had advised them to roll over loans to South Korean firms that may come due in
the coming weeks and months, rather than pull the carpet from under them and escalate the crisis.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:06 - ID#280245)
Roger Penrose... on todays market?

Conscious needed
common sense
judgement of truth
 understanding
artistic appraisal

Consciousness NOT needed
following rules mindlessly
Roger Penrose, The Emperors New Mind, Oxford University Press,1989, p.411

6pk@Indonesia CB: Interesting to remember ( around Dec 18-20 ) their 'unfortunate' top three floors of building, 'Arkansas-type' fire, which destroyed so many records. Caused, so they said, by 'faulty wiring' ( in the main frame computer, no doubt. Isn't life....convenient?


(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:07 - ID#426220)

Internationally acclaimed financial analyst shares his latest brilliance with the GOLD-EAGLE readership. A few cardinal excerpts:

We are currently witnessing one of the greatest events in
world history, a total and complete economic collapse.

...Korean Banks have borrowed billions of U.S. dollars. The collapse of the won has resulted in major foreign exchange losses for the banks. Bankrupt borrowers and large foreign exchange losses will lead to the failure of most banks in Korea.

The IMF cannot alter the financial collapse of South Korea. Every
dollar lent by the IMF will be used to bail out a foreign lender. That is all. It replaces private debt with public debt. It does not alter the financial strength of Koreans' Bankrupt Companies.

Japan is in the same boat... only the Nippon boat is FAR LARGER! KUTYNS full report at:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:10 - ID#335190)
South Korea @ Down side
December 29, 1997
Industrial slowdown points to hardship ahead

SEOUL, South Korea ( Reuters ) - South Korean production fell and unemployment rose last month as Asia's economic woes started showing up in official reports Monday, while a research group predicted a recession next year.

The LG Economic Research Institute said gross domestic product would shrink 1.3 percent next year while the jobless rate would nearly double to 5.7 percent, with 1.3 million Koreans out of work.

South Korean President-elect Kim Dae-jung is facing a stiff challenge trying to convice angry workers that layoffs must occur to trim bloated companies and encourge urgently needed foreign investment.

Domestic machinery orders tumbled 34.6 percent in the year to November, compared with a rise of 29.8 percent a year earlier.

Machinery imports tumbled 21.8 percent against a 0.8 percent gain, while domestic construction orders slid 23.3 percent against a 48.5 percent rise.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:20 - ID#28585)
Gosh, guys...FARFEL ain't such a bad guy once you get to know him!!!
Just remember, fellas...I am a gold-bug...a REBORN gold-bug who believes that the strategies of gold producers must change to meet the assault mounted by Wall Street's New Paradigm...Gold Producers must CHANGE THE PERCEPTION!

...if gold producer strategies remain in the same rut, they are doomed to failure. It is imperative that major global gold producers create at least the facade of a united cartel...through active consolidation, severe supply cut-backs, and pro-gold propaganda in every medium on every corner.

Independence and factionalization in the industry must end immediately!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:26 - ID#286199)
Korean Loans "extended"
The stock rally in Europe and the U.S. is primarily a relief rally based on several large banks agreeing to roll over loans to South Korea and thus stave off collapse. What happens when Korea can't make the next due date? How long can creditor banks keep rolling over the loans before their own balance sheets take a hit? Isn't this like putting a torniquet on a severed artery, just first aid and not a cure?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:31 - ID#335190)
SDRer_A @ 13:06
Fire, is such a positive force. Faulty wiring they say, such a pity eh!
Convenient, never. These suits, are respected and honourable people. The suits, are doing their best for the advancement and positive results for the community at large. We Mushrooms, must believe and trust. Take Care.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:35 - ID#344308)

looking for a 50% re-tracement for silver to around
the 520-540 range.

gold---manipulated to the n'th degree....'they' have
got to sell...and sell they will...options only

3 days and counting.......tick..tock..


(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:40 - ID#26669)
Silver worries
Cherokee: I've been worried that silver would quickly see $US5.20, & mentioned it to LGB last week. But, is it possible to stave off the fall if it makes and holds $6.80? Will check you later. Got to go.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:41 - ID#356379)

Having observed the debate over the future of precious metals here for several months, I've got to say that most of the arguments regarding fundamentals will only have a purpose AFTER the upcoming big move.

I am convinced that most market moves are orchestrated by a very few people with huge resources who do whatever they choose to do and then use the appropriate fundamental BS to explain what happened.

I believe that greed ( or enlightened self-interest... ) drives this game. Silver has been in an upswing for some time because the big guys positioned themselves ( note the big drawdown in LME and COMEX stocks ) to take advantage of the move. The same thing will happen with gold. When the Saudis and whoever else with deep pockets have established their long term bullish positions, gold will rally. The fundamentals will then be used to explain everything, again.... And so it goes.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:51 - ID#426220)

Rick Ackerman regularly contributes market analysis to the Sunday San Francisco Examiner and has also written numerous times for
Barron's. Presently, he is bullish on GOLD, and VERY bearish on common stocks.

He observes The result has been the creation of a global credit bubble that is about to collapse and take the stock market with it. The size of the bubble is the reason why the market will not
return to health with the 10 to 20 percent correction that
nearly everyone on Wall Street seems to be hoping for.

Somewhere down the road, when share prices have been cut in half, the excess of the credit system will be cited as the cause of the collapse.

Most likely, gold stocks, bullion and long-term Treasuries will be the best place to be, along with some foreign debt instruments. But don't count on being able to shift your money when the trumpets sound, for there will be no time then.

Detailed comprehensive report at:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:55 - ID#267276)
new year
I feel confident that the new year will bring the another push up in the price of gold and stocks, just like it did two years ago.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:55 - ID#339450)
LGB 12/29 13:05
excellent grab LGB. pigeons coming home to roost. read between the lines.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 13:59 - ID#335190)
Greenspan @ Stiff Headwinds RE: USofA 1993 - Asia 1998
December 29, 1997
Asia financial markets face critical start to 1998

SINGAPORE ( Reuters ) - Asian financial markets, driven to their sickbed by the events of 1997, face a testing time in the new year as political and economic events threaten to push them into intensive care.

Heading the chart of political risk factors are presidential elections in Indonesia. Elections in the Philippines and a new South Korean government yet to be sworn in will also play a part.

On the economic front, most countries will start to feel the impact of the events of 1997 on inflation and growth, while corporations and banks struggle to find the money to repair their ravaged balance sheets.

"It's not a pretty picture as we move into 1998, too many things are unsettled," said Bill Belchere, head of fixed-income and economic research at Merrill Lynch in Singapore. "The currencies have not stopped falling, and there is still the problem of how the debt is going to be financed," he said.

Most analysts put the funding crisis at the top of their list of economic factors because many Asian nations are caught in a vicious cycle of currency depreciation leading to increased debt servicing costs which, in turn, leads to more currency weakness.

They say there is a question mark hanging over Asia: Will any governments go down the road of a debt moratorium or capital controls to break out of the cycle?

On top of this is the specter of inflation as the currency devaluations, which in some Asian countries have been more than 50 percent in less than six months, drive up the cost of imports. Belchere estimates inflation rates across Southeast Asia will rise into double digits in the new year.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan once said this about America after it had come through its own recession: "We are facing stiff headwinds. The most critical being the efforts of households, businesses and financial institutions to repair and rebuild their balance sheets following the damage inflicted in recent years as weakening asset values exposed excessive debt burdens."

It was true of the United States in 1993, and analysts say it holds true for Asia in 1998.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 14:03 - ID#252127)

The querries were not widespread, but the Camp Pendleton Marine Base was mentioned as one of the locations where a number of troops were subjected to the idea.
I will not mention the newsletter where I read this info.

Steve - Perth
(Mon Dec 29 1997 14:14 - ID#284177)
Steves specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

Financiers brace for fresh crisis over Korea

After 15 years the bulls are looking for a break

Commodities Boom a matter of time

200 Indonesian companies face $US debt woes

Big Americans take shine to Australian gold

Cashed-up firms swoop on Asia

The mad musings of Lyndon Larouche 27th Dec 97

( Some interesting stuff perhaps? )

Britain's Maastricht Stranglehold on Europe -

EIR: Lyn, what's the view from Europe, of U.S.-European relations?

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Bad. The worst problem, of course, is the

British, have lined up Europe -- most of it -- from Greece, to most of

Western Europe, against the United States.

One of the biggest problems that the President of the United States

has, and his administration, is, the British are our enemy. And they're

manipulating the U.S. government itself, which is trying to resist them,

by an old diplomatic technique.

See, the British game is: The British let you think that you are

managing them; you're controlling them. And they set out a group of

levers, which you can discover, which are put there, by them, for your

edification. Now, you presume that the way to handle the Brits is the

following way. So, therefore, you think that you're handling the Brits,

because you're using these levers. But the Brits set these levers out

there, to lure you into believing, that by pushing these levers, you are

controlling them.

Actually, by your relying upon these levers, they are controlling you.

EIR: That's fascinating.

LYNDON LAROUCHE: So, that's one of the big problems here.

The British are running the entire continental European operation

against the United States, and, I don't think the White House grasps

that yet. They don't understand how that works. I've dealt with this

problem for decades, and therefore, as an historian and economist, I

think I have a better grasp of how it works. I've studied the animal for

a long time.

But the other part, of course, is Maastricht. Take the history of

Maastricht: Go back to 1989. George Bush was President

( unfortunately ) ; Margaret Thatcher was still screeching, like a parrot --

a drunken parrot, on LSD -- from her pinnacle in London. And a

British agent was still residing as the President of France: Francois


So, as the Fall of 1989 approached, and it was obvious that the

German side, and other sides of the Soviet empire were beginning to

crumble, that the British set up a scream, the Thatcher government set

up a scream, called ``Fourth Reich'': that Germany was going to be

unified, that Germany's economic power, as a reunified nation,

oriented toward rebuilding the former Soviet region of the world,

would make it a great power; and the British couldn't stand for that.

So, you had, in Mitterrand ( who was not only a British agent, but a

French revanchiste of the most contemptible type ) , was an enthusiast.

So he said, ``No. We're not going to allow Germany to be reunified.''

Initially, Bush was going to go along with this, but then, Bush was

advised by a couple of people, advisers of his, that this was idiocy.

So, as a result, they came up with a compromise solution: They would

impose upon Germany, its own crippling itself. That Germany would

agree to destroy and cripple its economy; not to develop the eastern

part of Germany, if it got it, and would generally accept conditions

which would ensure that Germany would be -- the D-mark would

virtually be nonexistent, and Germany would not an independent

economic power, but simply part of a zoo, a continental zoo, managed

by the zoo-keeper, who was outside the system, in London, running

the European system, from the outside. The way British always ran

balance of power in Europe.

This became the Maastricht Treaty. Imposed nominally by Mitterrand,

as one of his outgoing acts, so to speak, upon Germany.

And the Germans have submitted to it.

Now, the result of that, was a change in the social composition of the

German political class. That is, that by destroying German industry,

and German science -- the German machine-tool sector, in particular,

by exporting German industry; German products aren't as good as

they used to be, because of outsourcing. And because there's less

machine-tool input. For example, the former German aerospace,

which had one of the finest machine-tool capabilities in the world,

back in 1988-89, virtually nonexistent, in terms of that quality of

machine-tool capability, today. They dissolved it.

Whole industries are disappearing. What's left of Germany's steel

industry has just been consolidated into, financially, one firm.

- Britain Turned Europe into an Enemy of the U.S. -

EIR: You're listening to ``EIR Talks.'' This is Tony Papert.

When we paused for a commercial, Lyndon LaRouche was describing

how Britain had organized continental Europe against the United

States, through Maastricht.

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, as a result of the changes in economy,

you change the economic power, and therefore, the political

correlation of forces within the establishment. That is, the interests

which formerly represented the activities of Germany's high-tech

agro-industrial sector, were undermined. Science was undermined.

The influence of science, which meant the influence of rationality, was

undermined. That the employment -- the people, who were skilled

people, were downgraded -- those who represented that.

And you had a new kind of ``New Age,'' or post-modernist

sentimentality, which was fanatically pro-British, which tended to take

over in France, where the Socialist Party is the most pro-British

faction in France: Mitterrand's Socialist Party. That apparatus. There

are exceptions within the party, but, generally, the party is pretty much

an evil mess.

Germany: Probably over half of the German parliamentarians are,

more or less, fanatically pro-British. Some parties, particularly, to the

last man ( or whatever it is there ) , is that. And so forth.

So, Europe, then, became more a financier-run section of the world,

as opposed to an industry-driven source, part of the world. In other

words, the industries, the industrial activity, things we think of, in

terms of technology and production, had less and less influence on

German perception of self-interest, and purely financial, speculative

kinds of things became predominant.

Under these conditions, Europe became an enemy of the United

States. German relations with the United States could not have been

worse, in the past couple of years, even though Clinton, in his first

administration, took very strong efforts to build a good cooperation

with Germany, as a special relationship with Germany, particularly

with respect to the problems of Eastern Europe, and so forth, and

cooperation in those areas. But Kohl rejected it, and stood with the


Now, there are some people who don't understand, that the British

manage Europe. You know, there are some people, who are taken in

by the British saying, ``Oh, we're not part of that. We have our

quarrels with these fellows.'' But they're running it! They're running

France. They effectively are controlling Germany. They're sitting on

Italy. The Dutch are with 'em. The Belgians are generally with 'em.

So, who is not?

And this has been the Clinton administration's biggest problem: Is the

fact that Europe, under British direction, has ganged up against the

United States, as was the case at the Denver Summit, this year.

When Blair led the Europeans in an absolute -- something out of Alice

in Wonderland: The Mad Hatter's Tea Party, was thrown in the face

of President Clinton. On his own territory!

By these nuts!

Recently, I think, because the situation is so bad, that Waigel, the

finance minister of Germany, came to Washington, and, of course,

lined up with the United States, in a concert agreement against Michel

Camdessus, the director of the IMF.

But these relations are very bad. One would hope they can be

improved, but one has to appreciate, that, you know, Clinton may

actually be, in net performance, when you consider the problems he's

up against, probably the best-performing President since Kennedy.

That may seem ridiculous, until you know what the problems are.

And the fact that we have virtually no allies. Japan was virtually not

speaking to the United States, up until recently. They were on the

other side! The British side. The Europeans were against the United

States, especially in the past several years.

And then we had all the problems here.

So, when you consider the problems the President faces, his

performance is really not that bad, at least relative to anything we've

seen since Kennedy, when you consider what the odds are, he's up


And this thing should be better understood.

Patriots of the United States should understand what our problems

are, as a nation, and just don't poke the dirty finger at the President,

every time -- every time you don't like something!

- Royal Smear Job against America -

EIR: Do you have more to report on the British world propaganda

campaign against the United States?

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, for example, I get it all over the world.

For example: people will say the IMF policies, are U.S. policy.

Well, it's not true! Absolutely not true!

Why do people say that? Because the British say so.

So, you'll have people, in countries all over the world, saying, ``The

United States is the biggest ogre, behind this; behind this; behind this;

behind this.''

All not true!

The British run international terrorism, top-down. Plain fact! The

control of ``Islamic terrorism,'' so-called, is out of London. And it's

not something snuck in there. It's not something they didn't notice!

The British Crown, at the highest level, has publicly stated, in

Parliament, that its policy is to harbor these terrorists organizations --

which are on the U.S. list as the worst in the world.

That kind of problem.

But people will say, ``No! The United States is the terrible ogre!

Yeah, Britain, yeah ... But Britain working with the United States''; on

policies, where the United States government, to my knowledge, is

opposed, is fighting against the IMF.

And someone will say, the IMF is the instrument of the U.S.

And what infuriates me, is that the U.S. government, which knows

these facts, does not come out and say publicly: ``No. This is not us.''

We have a reporter ask a question at the State Department, or at the

White House press conference, saying: ``What's this about the British?

People say that the United States is behind this, and behind this. What

do you have to say in this?'' And this guy should say, ``No. This is an

absolute lie. We hear it ourselves, all over the place. But anybody who

knows the situation, knows it's a lie. We have quarrels with these

fellows. We're not with their policy.''

And people ought to see this, with the case of Michel Camdessus, who

has demanded this huge bail-out fund. And Waigel was brought over

from Germany, for one of the first acts of actually cooperation

between Germany and the United States, in some time, to agree to

stand fast against Camdessus and the IMF policy. The U.S. Treasury

is not for the IMF policy. The U.S. Treasury is not for that crazy

bail-out policy. And Rubin has made it very clear, as chief Treasury

spokesman, and others have made it clear.

But nonetheless, this keeps going on, and on, and on: people saying,

``The United States is doing this; the United States is doing that'' --

and the United States is not doing it.

But unfortunately, for some reason of policy, the U.S. government

doesn't defend itself against these lies.

- Revolt against London, the Terrorist Asylum -

EIR: Lyn, the Egyptian government has been waging a very

widespread campaign to try to force London to cease its support for

terrorism, to extradite the terrorists there. Can you tell us more about


LYNDON LAROUCHE: Ah! This is not an Egyptian operation,

though Egypt is playing a key part in this. If you look at several

conferences, which have been going on, involving groups, official

groups, and other interest groups, from Islamic countries, or nominally

Islamic countries: You'll find that the same policies, which Egypt is

presenting, in its attacks on Britain, are coming out of the conference

in Teheran; they're coming out of these other Islamic group

conferences. Mahathir, in Southeast Asia, is a spokesman for leading

forces, throughout all of Southeast Asia ( which, in effect, include the

King of Thailand! ) , attacking these policies.

You had a denunciation of terrorism, coming out of the Teheran

conference, as a resolution of Islamic countries. Other Islamic groups

doing that.

What you're seeing, is that a group of Islamic people, leaders, of

government, and related institutions, who would normally be

considered as Islamic moderates ( that is, these are not the

pro-terrorist, etc., etc., types of people; they're not wild-eyed leftists;

they're middle-of-the-road statesmen ) , are joined in the same policy,

which Mubarak is expressing. So, Mubarak is not speaking as a lone

voice: He is speaking for a whole part of the world population,

totalling up, in influence, to about 1 billion people; so, it's not to be


[commercial break]

EIR: This is ``EIR Talks.'' We're on the line with Lyndon LaRouche.

When we were interrupted by a commercial, he was describing how

Islamic moderates worldwide, are rising up against London and its


LYNDON LAROUCHE: For example, the resolution on terrorism,

that came out of these conferences, this past week: You'll find, it's the

same line as Mubarak. Mubarak is not alone.

This is a general revolt, against the IMF and the British policy. You

see this reflected in patriotic sentiments, coming out of East Asia and

Southeast Asia. The resistance to the IMF, which is getting tougher by

the day, saying, ``This is a bunch of bloodsuckers, that should go

away, and not bother us any more.'' And it's this conflict, which brings

all these forces together, saying, ``We've got to get some clout,''

working together. These are forces, which, to a large degree, have

important relations with China, either directly or indirectly. And these

forces are coalescing. And they're using the theme of Islam, and,

essentially, politically moderate Islam -- that is, they're not leftist

utopians. But they're using Islam as a fulcrum, to bring themselves

together, to be a united force, on issues.

And when they feel strong, they tell the truth. And when they feel

strong, and tell the truth, they say: The British are behind international

terrorism, including the Luxor incident. And the British Crown is

directly, wittingly responsible for these terrorist acts. And they say,

they must be brought to heel.

It's a very important symptom. It's not the whole story, but it's a


But one must look to the larger picture, not just look at Egypt.

- Toward a New Bretton Woods Agreement -

EIR: Lyn, Michel Camdessus, the managing director of the IMF is

about to, is shortly going to come to the U.S. to appeal to the

Congress for an increase in America's IMF quota. What's going to


LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, I think Rubin and company will make

the deal, which they settled with Theo Waigel, the finance minister of

Germany, stick.

I think the time for Michel Camdessus to retire, and for the IMF to

become more modest, in its voice, has come.

The IMF is bankrupt. It's funded by governments, of course, and

therefore, it does not appear to be bankrupt, but, in a sense, it's

bankrupt. It's like a disease, you know; we don't need it any more.

We need a complete replacement for what the IMF, in its present

form, represents. We do need the kind of Bretton Woods agreement,

which was destroyed, back in 1971. We need a restoration of that

kind of an agreement, for a cooperative system of regulation, of a

system of fixed parities, or relatively fixed parities, limited

convertibility, exchange controls, with that, capital controls; and the

general fostering of world trade and low-interest-rate borrowing, on

long term, for fruitful programs of economic development, which are

mutually beneficial, both to individual nations, and to their trading


Steve - Perth
(Mon Dec 29 1997 14:17 - ID#284177)
Double Space Demon
I have been inflicted by the double spacer! My apologies.
My last post did NOT look like this on the preview page.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 14:18 - ID#335190)
USofA Central Bankers @ Meetings RE: Asia & USofA exposure
December 29, 1997
N.Y. Fed meets with banks on South Korea crisis

NEW YORK, ( Reuters ) - Top executives from several major U.S. commercial and investment banks met officials of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Monday to discuss the debt crisis in South Korea, where banks face some $30 billion in loan repayments over the next two months.

The talks, being led by New York Fed President William McDonough, followed reports from Tokyo and London that banks around the globe were preparing to extend short-term loans to South Korea to help resolve the economic crisis there, which has affected markets around the world.

New York Fed Senior Vice President Peter Bakstansky, who confirmed the talks were taking place, declined to disclose any details, and no formal statement was expected from the central bank. A source at a one bank said the Fed, which supervises the U.S. banking industry, wanted to get detailed information about commercial and investment banks' exposure to South Korean debt.

A handful of participants left the New York Fed in late morning but declined to comment to reporters. They and the Fed officials were expected to hold a second meeting in the afternoon at the New York headquarters of J.P. Morgan & Co. Inc., sources familiar with the situation said. A spokesman for J.P. Morgan declined to comment.

On Wednesday, J.P. Morgan and five other major U.S. banks said they would discuss ways in which they might further help South Korea resolve its banking and currency problems, part of an even wider financial crisis in Asia. The other banks were Chase Manhattan Corp., Citicorp, Bank of New York Co. Inc., Bankers Trust New York Corp. and BankAmerica Corp.

About $15 billion of Korea's estimated $100 billion in short-term debt comes due this month and another $15 billion next month. The Fed also wanted learn at Monday's meetings the total value of South Korean short-term loans about to mature and whether the banks intended to extend the duration of the loans or roll them over, according to the source.

European banks have been the most aggressive lenders to South Korea in recent years, with their combined exposure amounting to $33.8 billion by the end of 1996, according to figures from the Bank for International Settlements.

U.S. banks were owed a combined $9.36 billion. Japanese banks, which have been reducing their exposure, still remain heavily exposed, with claims of $24.3 billion. Germany's top banks Monday pledged to take part in an international private-sector financing initiative to prevent South Korea from defaulting on its debts and to protect the global financial system.

Deutsche Bank AG issued a statement promising "constructive cooperation" by German banks after a meeting in Frankfurt of representatives from the country's leading banks, the Bundesbank and the Finance Ministry.

In London, British-Hong Kong banking giant HSBC Holdings Plc said it was coordinating a group of London banks that had met to assist in resolving the South Korean crisis.

The Wall Street Journal, quoting people it said were familiar with the situation, reported Monday that major U.S. lenders had agreed in principle to roll over some of their existing loans to South Korean banks and the details were expected to be worked out in talks Monday in New York.

The International Monetary Fund and leading industrial nations are putting together an aid package to help South Korea weather the worst debt crisis in its history. Some Japanese banks also were expected to agree to roll over their short-term credits to South Korea, according to banking sources in Tokyo.

South Korea and Japan's Finance Ministry had strongly urged the banks to agree to a rollover to avoid sparking a new financial crisis in the world's 11th largest economy. The sources said a group of 10 Japanese banks met Monday in Tokyo to discuss the situation in South Korea.

A few major Japanese banks expressed willingness to roll over their credits to South Korea, the sources said, but it was undecided whether the rest of the banks would follow suit.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 14:19 - ID#426220)
Ridgerunner: You may WATCH the day trading of GOLD, PLATINUM, Palladium,

Silver, XAU & HUI at GOLD-EAGLE Intra-Day Charts webpage. Also, shown are

30-year T-Bond and Crude Oil prices, in addition to the "Paper" Indices ( DOW, S&P, NASDAQ & Utilities:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 14:39 - ID#269409)
Gold vs. Silver
Gold off $4.20, and Silver off only .03 cents? Don't listen to that dope smoker, SILVER is the place to be!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 14:41 - ID#78116)
Peutz is still perfect
Once again, the market is crashing up on Peutz's prediction. I tell ya, the man has a near perfect record of being wrong. Always take the opposite side of a Peutz recommendation and you are almost always guaranteed to make a gain.... Thank you Mr. Peutz you are uncanny in your ability to see calamity where none exists, crisis where none occurs.

Your buy gold recommendation of several months ago is still working its magic as I went short on a group of gold companies, all of which have fallen sharply and continue to fall.... I wait breathlessly, ready to trade on your next pearl of wisdom.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 14:58 - ID#344308)

a 50% re-tracement does not indicate a change in trend.
they are quite common and as predictable as lgb....and
they are a way of shaking the weak longs out.

-------------lgb is the only dope being smoked here----

-------------well, and ole bug eyes---karlito-----------lgbito--YES!!

-----it works for me!! heee..... heeee......heeeee

sell-off coming before the close..all sleepwalkers onboard...!; )

ted--hope you got out of the c$....she is heading south....

cherokee!; ) dotssmfatimm----------lgbito---lgbito---

(Mon Dec 29 1997 14:58 - ID#427357)

Noted ORACLE OF HONG KONG, Milhouse, provides yet another astute and insightful critique of the Nippon Financial Malaise. Milhouse is decidedly bearish, and feels the rapidly falling Nikkei is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better!

In Japan, the economic recession continues relentlessly. Furthermore, major falls in the stock market appear very likely in 1998, wiping out whatever capital remains in the troubled Japanese institutions.

I believe there is a greater chance that the Japanese people will start accumulating GOLD to protect their substantial savings...

Milhouses clear-sighted and perceptive report may be found at:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 14:58 - ID#335190)
Canadian @ Dollar
December 29, 1997
Bank of Canada buys Canadian dollars - traders

TORONTO, Dec 29 ( Reuters ) - The Bank of Canada intervened and bought Canadian dollars for U.S. dollars as the currency traded around the C$1.4390 level, dealers said.

The intervention took place in several rounds and was considered light as the currency weakened through key support.

"I would describe it as pretty light. As always, they're just trying to hold it in, preventing it from running away in a very thin market," said a Toronto-based currency trader.

Following the intervention, the Canadian dollar was trading at C$1.4390 after opening at C$1.4371 and Friday's close of
C$1.4353. The Bank of Canada does not comment on intervention.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 15:04 - ID#280245)
Frank Norris "MOP"? repost of Carl, Sun....(re:6pak's US banker's 'meeting')
NOT NEWS information, rather Ministries of Propaganda 'doing their jobs'
Date: Sun Dec 28 1997 11:12
Carl ( SDRer - World order ) ID#333131:
Have you seen today's NY Times, Floyd Norris Market Watch? He calls for an "Morgan" like solution ( from ninety years ago ) . He wants a group made up of people like Rubin, Pohl and Volker to get together and decide who should be bailed out and who left for road kill in Korea.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 15:25 - ID#269409)
@ Puetz ...and Worst mutual fund performance of 1997
It truly is uncanny how accurate Puetz is as a contrary indicator. As to mutual funds, the ones being touted by Puetz and his ilk at "Gold Eagle" and elsewhere, have now been declared the biggest losers of 1997.

Guess which fund got hit the hardest and had the hugest decline? The Gold/Gold shares "Midas Fund" takes top prize with a 61.2 % decline!!! Wow..then we have U.S. Global investors Gold fund with a whopping 58.25% decline and "Invesco Strategic Gold fund" down 57.5%

With Puetz and Co. always touting the "1929" crash and similar such market downturns, you'd think news like this is something he'd want to report eh? We'll hear nary a word from him or Vronsky on this, the most disastrous market sector investment in a decade.

I was berated earlier today for my 02:30 post demonstrating a NINETY percent decline in purchasing power for a particular "safe" investment vehicle...namely...GOLD!

Yep, GoldBugs are great at talking about paper declines from market TOPS, but if you talk about the TOP of the Gold price in 1980, what it's done in the 18 years since, and it's realitve value to OTHER important commodities like real estate, then you're being "unfair". UhHuh, like all equity market investors buy at DOW top and sell at DOW bottom.

IMNHO, Gold has been the worst disastor of an investment in our lifetimes, and will never be equaled in horrific losses by any potential equity market downturn.

But back to Puetz, isn't it laughable to call someone like him an "analyst"???

(Mon Dec 29 1997 15:27 - ID#344308)

who-ever posted the url for the bohl web-page with
option prices, and a lot more, has earned a seat in
-----the ssm...

excellent site! -----thanks......byeibd

(Mon Dec 29 1997 15:30 - ID#427357)


One of the big worries that has long plagued the bond market is that foreign-government central banks will begin selling their vast cache of U.S. Treasuries in the event of a world economic crisis.

Well, it's already happening, and sure enough, it's hurting prices of shorter-term Treasury securities -- sending yields, which move in the opposite direction of prices, upward.

Short-term Treasury security prices have fallen sharply in recent days on what many Wall Street traders believe is a surge of selling by Asian central banks. These banks are dumping dollar-denominated securities to curb the dollar's rise and raise funds to buy their own currencies, amid the continuing Asian economic turmoil. The yield on three-month bills, for example, has jumped in a matter of days, trading at a yield of 5.40% late last week, up from 5.17%. We are rapidly converging on AN INVERTED YIELD CURVE... which has always spelled the death knell for stocks and bonds.

"More and more attention is being paid to the erosion of Treasuries, especially three-month bills, which are at their highest discounted yield levels in two years," says William Sullivan, chief money-market economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. "There have been powerful liquidations, PROBABLY FROM

The above revelations by the WSJ were forecasted MANY MONTHS AGO by the ORACLE. The dire ramifications for the stock market and bonds will be devastating. On the other side of the coin ( gold, naturally ) this will propel yellow metal prices into the ionosphere.

The ORACLE proves beyond a shadow of doubt that the only defense southeast Asians had... AND WILL HAVE - against the on-going currency chaos, stock market turmoil and the regions crumbling bank system is to invest in GOLD. The staunchest and most fanatical anti-GOLDBUGS are obliged to concede to the irrefutable evidence that GOLD is the ONLY SAFE HARBOR vis--vis the looming and devastating Domino Effect engulfing the area:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 15:35 - ID#252150)
Clinton joke for feminazis
I heard this from a caller to Ray Taieferro ( sp ) on KGO San Francisco @ 2 a.m. this morning. I'm in Victoria & kgo comes in as clear as a bell during the night.

The President was returning to the White House last week after Xmas shopping.He had a pig under each arm & met one of his secret service agents. The agent called out " those are fine looking pigs Sir". Clinton replied "these are'nt just ordinary pigs, they're Arkansas razorbacks, I got one for Hillary & one for Chelsea". The agent replied "that was a damn good trade Sir".

Actually I lke Clinton & think most Canadians do. I remember when he was up here a few years ago. There was a picture of him,in our local newspaper, driving one of our new high speed ferries, in his shirt sleeves, with one hand on the steering wheel & a bud in the other. I remember thinking to myself, now there's a guy who likes to have fun. Despite his weaknesses & foibles his humanity shines through. Unlike some of his predecessors, I can't imagine him unleashing weapons of mass destruction on innocent civilians.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 15:38 - ID#335190)
SDRer_A @ 15:04 ( USofA Corporate Interests @ Conflict with Interests of "We The People"
"Ministries of Propaganda 'doing their jobs'"

Mr. Lyndon Larouche Re: Steve-Perth @ 14:14
** So, you'll have people, in countries all over the world, saying,``The United States is the biggest ogre, behind this; behind this; behind this;
behind this.''

All not true!
The British run international terrorism, top-down. Plain fact!**

The "We The People" are not the problem in the world economic game of events. Yet, the situation is being promoted that Mr. So & So USofA, sitting in a chair, in his home, in USofA, is the economic enemy of Mr. So & So sitting in his chair in Germany. "NOT".

International Bankers are the common fault, to Mr. USofA and Mr. Germany.
The people pay the frieght via labour and taxes.

"All that harms labor is treason to America. No line can be drawn between these two. If any man tells you he loves America, yet he hates labor, he is a liar. If a man tells you he trusts America, yet fears labor, he is a fool."

"I am glad to see that a system of labor prevails under which the system which lets a man quit when he wants to and wish it prevails everywhere."

"The strongest bond of human sympathy, outside of the family relation, should be one uniting all working people of all nations, tongues and kindreds."

From The Speeches Of Abraham Lincoln.
Take Care

(Mon Dec 29 1997 15:39 - ID#269409)
Worst loss in decades....directly related to Gold, goes unreported by "Gold Sites"
Hmmm, we now have the worst mutual fund sector loss in decades, 60% declines in a year, in the "Gold and Gold shares" funds, go completely unreported by Vronsky's GoldEagle site, GoldBug "analysts" like Puetz & Sheller, et al.

Wouldn't it seem logical that all these Gold market "experts" would want to report on an important devasting crash like this? Or at least explain to us why these funds which were touted by them as great buys BEFORE this crash ocurred, violated their precepts and analysis? ( Oh yes, I know, all the analysis was correct it's just the "timing" and the unforesenn "Market manipulation" that caused this come they didn't know about them manipulators BEFORE 1997??? )

Caveat emptor, these analysts if believed, have cost their investment followers more money than any modren day crash will EVER cause in our lifetimes...both in this century and the next!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 15:53 - ID#78116)
LGB you are too hard on Peutz
He is a great analyst. Any idiot can be right 50% of the time, just flip a coin or like the WSJ, throw darts at a NYSE listing....

No, it takes real ability to be wrong 100% of the time. To pick the worst investment for a year ahead of time takes great skill. What would it be worth today LGB to know the worst investment for 1998? I believe Peutz will reveal this to us by telling us what his best investment idea for the year is....

The value of any investment analyst or advisor is in knowing how to read them. If you know how to read Peutz, then you have the Rosetta Stone of investing and a key to vast gains.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 15:57 - ID#269409)
@ Poor------- Cherokee------------------- &-------------- Co.
Silver loses a whopping .02 cents on the close. AS Gold drops $3.70. Meanwhile Equities SKYrocket.

Cherokee, keep smokin the good stuff, keep tellin me how smart you are as you, Sheller, Puetz, inTolermoront, et al continue to be totally, completely, irrevocably incorrect on each and every market statement you make.

Take heart, things will change eventually for ya..course you won't have much "powder" left by then to enjoy Gold when it DOES rise.....

Never mind investments, gains, losses, secuity, intrinsic value, etc etc. Don't be bothered by 500 to 1000% losses in the world's "safest" and most "real" commodity/investment, namely Gold. Don't be concerned about the most enormous market losses suffered in decades during the best bull market in history....60% drops in Gold mutual funds in a year.....

None of that matters if you have some good weed, can delude yourself a little longer, and still buy a cheap suit at K-Mart for an ounce of Gold..

(Mon Dec 29 1997 16:02 - ID#42371)
Arden or...
Latest Comex figures please on this sorry day.....

(Mon Dec 29 1997 16:03 - ID#254269)
Dow up 115 points (1.50%), S & P 500 up 17.09 (1.78%), 30 year bond


(Mon Dec 29 1997 16:04 - ID#269409)
@ Puetz
Quite right, quite right. I have a theory that Puetz secretly does the OPPOSITE of what he advises, when it comes to his own personal investments. It does indeed take talent to be so wrong, so often.

You'd think Puetz would at least have the cleverness of say, a "Sheller" though, and wait till REAL analysts make predictions, see the market moves already well in place and continuing, and THEN and ONLY THEN, come along with a "prediction" based on Astrological indicators. Lends a lot of credence to the Moon inUranus kinda thing.

What's REALLY going to scrae me though is if Puetz ever becomes a convert to equities and turns bullish. Then watch out! It'll make 1929 look like a Sunday school picnic!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 16:08 - ID#288157)
Caution my friends...
When analyzing the banking stories:

1 ) The banks of the 1930 NO LONGER EXIST. It is unproductive--at best--to attempt comparisons. Since 1980, banks as I ( and Adam Smith ) defined them have pretty much ceased to exist. Today, banks by and large make their loans first, and then go look for the money. Mayer, The Bankers, The Next Generation, p.190.

2. In 1996 almost 85 percent of the banking industrys resources came from sources other than insured deposits on any kind. The advertised credit crunch of 1990-92 was the result of pressure from accountants and bank examiners on valuation of loans and investments, not control of lendable deposits by the Fed.
Mayer, op.cit., p. 191

3. Loans to consumers, especially on the credit card chassis, are the lifeblood of the largest banks: Citicorp makes more than $2bn a year--more than half its profits--on such business. In 1992, said Joe Tripodi of Mastercard, Citibank was technically insolvent. What kept them going was a billion-dollar profit on credit cards. MOST commercial-and-industrial loans are now term loans, many of them going out ten years or more. Indeed, banks write currency opptions that go out five and six years, which are ABSOLUTELY ILLIQUID. IBID.

LGB@Gold mutual funds:There is no one on this site who is unaware
of gold losses...
we make every effort to keep self-flagellation to a minimum...

New Kid on the Block
(Mon Dec 29 1997 16:08 - ID#389125)
LGB ???

Could it possibly be that LGB is the anti-Christ in disguise?

Say it ain't so!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 16:08 - ID#252150)
Ted @Your WSJ post
I agree that it is gold co. bs. Most of them could'nt make a profit when POG was $70 higher. Many more will fail. 55 F here today & sunny. Flowers

out & fruit trees blossoming. How's the weather on your island?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 16:10 - ID#269409)
@ NKOB......what do you get when you add 666+666+666 ??
The anti-Christ will come bearing gifts og Gold from European CB's.. tain't me but Sheller may know something!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 16:15 - ID#42371)
LGB & Karlito..Enough already...
As you know from my previous postings, I am not a deluded Gold-bug- BUT..

You guys make it sound like you had great wisdom to be in stocks over the last year. All that proved as P/E s go from 20 to 30 to higher is that there is a lot of people who have a lot of money and no idea of where to put it.

Would you buy a business for 30-40 times it's NEXT years earnings, in such a volatile world when you have no say in it's running.

There are plenty fools out there who would, which means that the fools who just paid 30 times, can feel wise and full of pride.

yes Peutz has been an unmitigated disaster in his predictions, but Bear Sterns, and Soloman brothers put out their famous "The market will go UP" the week before the 1987 crash. So Peutz is in good and very highly paid company.

The stock market is the best possible pyramidal scheme, with the whole nation geared up to help it succeed.

Enjoy your winnings, gloat...but enough already.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 16:26 - ID#339450)
karlitto 99 re puetz is still perfect
make money while you can. you can make more by learning about suck in rallies.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 16:27 - ID#252150)
LBG,Karlito re: Puetz
He blew his credibility with me when he compared the present day U.S. to the collapsing Roman Empire. Although I recognize the danger in the financial house of cards, no one with any sense of history can compare a Country that has the strongest currency & the strongest military with an empire that had been declining for many centuries.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 16:46 - ID#344308)

stocks crash up again------don't you just hate it when that happens!!

grains down

pm's down

bonds down---------awwwww.........hell of a day!

damned near all 'stuff' down.......whilst paper up....

cnbc had analyst showing highest 'oversold condition' in
equities since another spike in july '97.

expect the best ( we've had it----7 yr bull )

prepare for the worst ( we're over-due---physics dictates a contraction )

---as an after-thought-------and food-for-thought-----

at a un meeting in cairo in 1994, jacques costeau predicted that
300,000 people would have to be EUTHANIZED ( murdered----STARVED )
PER WEEK in order to preserve our current standards of living
for the fortunate chosen ones. hard to believe ole jacques--
the visionary---loved and admired by all, could espouse such
drastic measures. what do you think the nwo-for-lunch-bunch
has in store for the masses? eliminate grain stocks, wait for
el nino, and just that easy there is world-wide food shortage
with all associated chaos and flux.

300k per week..........jacques cousteau.......nwo----coming
soon to a theatre near YOU!.........

respected, seemingly rational people are planning for their
idea of the nwo....the rationale and techniques, will exceed
by far, hitler's worst. and yours...

what are the current stockpiles of grains relative to historical
carryover? ---food-----the ultimate weapon against one's own people.


Lurker 777
(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:06 - ID#317247)
Your welcome my friend. Here is their home page for all the closing Futures and Option prices for the previous day. Enjoy:
Bought a March 30 year bond 118 put for 40 ( $625. ) Hope THE DON is right.
Just another brick in the wall.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:07 - ID#93232)
I received the chart today and want to say thank you very much. It certainly appears that we are at the upper limits of the ratio.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:09 - ID#269409)
@ Cherokee
Sell Gold, buy Corn and Soybean futures

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:12 - ID#335190)
Corporate USofA @ Irked (P***** O**)
December 29, 1997
Iran-Turkmen pipeline opens, U.S. irked

KORPEDZHE, Turkmenistan ( Reuters ) - Iran and Turkmenistan Monday opened the first natural gas pipeline between the two countries and vowed to step up cooperation in the lucrative energy sector.

The move brought an immediate grumble from the United States, which has threatened sanctions against firms investing in the oil industry in Iran, whose Islamic government Washington accuses of sponsoring international terrorism.

The pipeline accord, observed with great interest in Moscow, Washington and elsewhere, has wider implications for the Central Asian region as Islamic Iran, under Khatami's moderate guidance, charts a more pragmatic course.

U.S. State Department spokesman James Foley said the pipeline opened Monday was exempt from the 1996 Iran-Libya Sanctions Act because it predated the act. Under the act, oil projects can bring sanctions on any company investing more than $20 million in Iran or Libya.

But he said, "The United States opposes as a matter of policy the construction of pipelines across Iran."

Washington would eye future pipeline projects and take "appropriate action under the law" if needed, he said.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:16 - ID#269409)
@ Vertigo.....I'm NOT a lemming dammit!
True, any fool coulda mad enice gains in equities the past few years ( pretty much my point in any case ) but it would take a TOTAL fool NOT to have made money in equities, and instead, to have had their money in the latter 20th century's worst possible "safe" investment. Gold!

I have a unique persepctive, being that I was a "diehard" Goldbug in my young and ignorant days, 1972 is when I started investing, 1974 is when I started buying Gold, 1979 is when I awoke to the possibility that I was being taken for a ride by "Gold Guru's", 1981 is when I eschewed my Gold holdings, started doing serious research, and buying equities, 1997 ( July/August ) is when I decided P/E 21 ratios were high enough and I dumped all my mutual fund shares ( at average DOW 8000 approx. ) , and June/July/August is when I started accumulating Silver physical en masse.

Hardly the plays of a sheeplike, lemminglike, luckylike, market clone who parrots mass media analysts and just tosses bales of cash at the wall to see what sticks.

All that said, in the long run, I'd counsel my own children to stick every dime they can into 401K mutual funds throughout their lives. It's their BEST chance for BIGGEST gains, safety, success in investing.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:21 - ID#254269)
Where is everyone ? It's slow here this afternoon.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:25 - ID#269409)
@ James re Puetz......(pardon a final shot Vertigo)
He lost all credibility with me when he;

a ) Said he has "no loyalty to his country", and
b ) has been grossly incorrect with uncanny consistency, and
c ) made crash perdictions based on the "Eclispe" then when that failed the "Full Moon", then when that failed the "New Moon" then when that failed the next "Full Moon', then when that failed said that
d ) the massive crash started Oct. 27 and would complete it's enormous fall by the end of December!, and
e ) Urged his poor dewey eyes followers to buy Put options on the S&P with Dec. expirations ( all of which will expire worthless, a 100% loss ) , and
f ) makes all kinds of erroneous comparisons to irrelevant events in history, ( such as example you so correctly gave ) , and
g ) Showed himself the phony he truly is by backing out of the bet he was supposed to honor with me on his "crash by Oct 31" prediction of DOW 5400, and
h ) Demonstrates a complete dearth of honesty when analyzing his past record of market calls, and, and...

well, I don't have a few more hours to spend but you get the point!

And to think, all the times I've been derided here because I'm not a "Certified ANALyst" and not "Quoted in Barrons..." I feel so inferior...

Now for ACCURATE market calls that have an 80% hit rate or better, check the archives for my posts or those of the late great HEPcat!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:31 - ID#269409)
@ Avalon....."where are they?"
They all run for cover if more than one Realist shows up on the forum at the same time. The reality checks re Gold are way too annoying to objectively contemplate.

Us paper gain guy's are tough to read cause we're all puerile, annoying, egotistical, abrasive, juvenile, and we don't appreciate a fine cigar and some good gentlemanly hypocritical pretense. Besides, we're controlled by the Rothschilds and sent here on disruptive missions to bad mouth Gold, and help manipulate the price. Hence, is more than one of us shows up, the forum dries up! ( Also, you expect guy's like Puetz to show up on a day like this when the DOW proves him a fool yet again??! ) sorry Vertigo..

January 1 is only 3 days. My resolutions include no further Puetz bashin..after all, what could I ever possibbly do to damage his credibility beyond what he has done to himself?

Bill El Zebub
(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:33 - ID#261352)
LGB @ corn and soybeans?
Wet El Nino'spring? Any suggestions on price and time?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:35 - ID#26793)
From USAGold
MARKET UPDATE ( 12/29/97 ) AM----- Gold was down $4.00 and stocks up over 100 as
nervous Wall Street bankers met with Fed officials at downtown Manhattan's J.P.
Morgan & Co. offices. The meeting was reminiscent of other eras, other times, and
other financial crises where major decisions were made at that venerable address. This
time the high level meetings are occurring on the subject of South Korea and its
potential default. S. Korea is asking that their short term loans be rolled over. Japan, it
was reported over the weekend, has given its approval to the rollover plan. The New
York bankers are balking. They want guarantees from the Federal Reserve -- in other
words they want a bailout. We have privatized profits in this country and socialized
losses -- a presecritpion for disaster down the road. According to Reuters, one trader
for a major New York bank said, " I don't think the private banks want to take on the
credit risk without guarantees." In other words they want to dump their bad loan
decisions on the American taxpayer -- once again. He added that a bailout package
would be a "setback" for the Treasury market, since the recent up tick has been
associated with the safe haven reputation of Treasury securities. So while things
appear to be quiet on the surface, they are roiling underneath. As for gold there was
some position squaring in Tokyo which took the metal lower overnight. Central banks
are reportedly "out of this market" so today could be a one day event. There's way of
knowing what the real reasons for this down tick at the moment. Information is sparse
this morning. The reasons I have seen don't add up. Looks like somebody hoping they
can make another short play work. We shall see what happens after the meeting breaks
up over at J.P. Morgan's offices until then, market direction is a guessing game. My
guess is that the Fed will buckle under to the private bankers requests and give them
the bailout for obvious reasons, and that's the reason for the optimistic start to today's
markets. If the Fed doesn't buckle, you could have a meltdown in Asia which would
spread here. There is some sentiment to let these countries go under -- after all what
happens when this particular well runs dry?? In the end all they can do though is buy a
little time. The black hole in Asia will take all they've got and more. That's it for now.
We will update if anything interesting happens.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:35 - ID#93232)
Cherokee...thanks to you for not listing "oil" as one the "fun" rides today ( down another sixty cents ) ...tomorrow, I face the grim task of cutting back the troops. I wish it wasn't so.
@All... I think posters should take in consideration that unfavorable price swings forbode ill realities for many readers and participants on this site...regardless of predictions and predictors. This is a pro-gold site, here to help those in the gold business, whether you want it to be or not. It is unbearingly inconsiderate to engage in today's childlike celebration and taunting at the cost of can not be justified.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:39 - ID#269409)
@ Be El Nino
I was being facetious on teh Corn/Bean thing due to Cherokee's earlier post re Jaques Custeauuuuuu. El Nino has been a bust so far, overhypes as I said last August when all the folks here claimed it meant the end of civilization as we know it. ( Oh wait, with the exception of Y2K bug which also means the end of civilization as we know it! )

In seriousness, I know nothing.....about CORN and SOYBEANS!! ( No comments from peanut gallery you Goldbug Moron's! )

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:40 - ID#39133)
How is it that you have all this time on your hands to sit around and pollute this site with your "more nerve than brains" ways?

I must assume you have actually lost a bundle in the past many months,
as gold has plunged to its lowest level in well over 10 years. Why else
would you be so enraged?

Sure this site could use some balance from the extremist gloom and doom
philosophy that is present here but there are ways to debate with class!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:42 - ID#269409)
@ Newa
When you've made a fortune in stocks, leaves ya a lot of leisure time

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:45 - ID#26793)
The chart does give you a reality check at first glance doesn't it. Notice how minor a blip the 1987 crash is. I took one copy and marked it up with captioned dates like, Panic of 1907, Start of the Fed, World War I, Hitler enters Czechoslovakia, Pearl Harbor etc. just to see what the Dow/Gold ratio did at those times.

Spud Master
(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:45 - ID#273112)
Slinking Gold Bug...
LGB, your own words aptly decribe your own behaviour during those "exhuberant days" last two weeks of the DOW tumnescently flopping:

"LGB et all run for cover if more than one Dow down day shows up on the market at the same time. The reality checks re old are way too annoying to objectively contemplate."

As for the abscence of many usual Kitco forum participants ( grin ) well, they probably have a life & better things to do during the holidays, unlike you & I, LGB ( wink, wink, nudge, nudge ) .

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:47 - ID#31868)
I had read the piece earlier. It is scary to think of the results of all those printing presses creating all that "money" and it all getting sucked into the blackhole in Asia. And having no effect on the situation whatsoever.

If for no other reason physical makes sense from a purely self-preservation financial aspect. The danger signs are flashing wildly and my take at this point is not so much to make money but to preserve what exists.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:50 - ID#401460)
A lot of RED

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:51 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Fell 15,011 ounces to 489,158

Silver: Tumbled 798,822 ( ! ) to 109,891,198 -- A new 13-year low.

It's been more than a week now that Silver is closing above the psychological "600" level. This is very significant. This is no time to spend time calculating downside corrections... Today's action was extremely bullish once you look at what happened twice! ( or 3 times )

The only little negative for Silver right now is last week's statement from Puetz that he is bullish in Silver. But then again....even an "analyst" can get lucky once in a while no?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 17:52 - ID#376309)
Focus on Gold
This is a very importanttime in history and everyone should be focusing on how they are going to be participating in the coming Gold Bull market!!! I have been studing different options on Gold and Gold stocks. Different months and different strike prices. The end is near. One more wave down is problable all we will have. I can not and will not declare an end yet but right now my target is $255.00. As any trader will know things can change and I will react accordingly. I wish I could search on a comment I made this summer when the XAU was at 100 and people were taking about a rally. I did state that Gold stocks would decline by 50%. Well the XAU may very well get to '50' on this next decline and it will be a buy of a life time! Don't fret. Don't call each other name. FOCUS!!!
When gold gets to $255 should we be buying the Dec98, Jun99 or the Dec99 calls and at what strike price?? How about calls on Gold stocks?? I have been tracking the Jan99 10.00 calls and the jan00 12.5 calls on HM. Which stock do you like?? Which option strike/month ??? I'm here to be a millionair and not to worry about the other problems which may arrise

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:00 - ID#31868)
For what it is worth I have been watching and following a little known company called Tan Range Exploration for a long time. Accumulating it here and there. The drill results look strong, real strong.

This stock looks great to me in that I have been buying at excellent prices from my standpoint. The information is getting stronger and stronger and I am holding it for the long haul.

You should take a peek at it TNX

Spud Master
(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:01 - ID#273112)
Another LGB red herring...
"When you've made a fortune in stocks, leaves ya a lot of leisure time"

On a related "size" subject, LGB, as any woman knows, if you have it, you don't need to advertise ( big grin ) . Only the insecure feel the need to stand on the curb and shout...

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:02 - ID#26793)
You are so right. I bought some QV sovereigns today for $78.90 and feel real good about it. I don't give a hoot what the price is tomorrow. I will still feel comfortable owning them.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:05 - ID#398105)
Donald_A - from USAGOLD


Interesting article - any further updates.

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:07 - ID#257148)
Glenn pehaps I can help. Can you remember any word or words you used in that post? or a more precise date? did you post it as Glen or another handle Might be able to find something in my archives . I have to go now, will check in later.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:07 - ID#426220)

The key to financial independence is to know who will win the hidden battle between the U.S. dollar and gold.

International Econo-political analyst shares his critique of Kutyn and Milhouse financial opinions of the Southeast Asian currency crisis, stock market meltdown and crumbling banking systems vis--vis George Soros "REFLEXIVITY" THEORY. Truly an intellectual erudite analytical work. See:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:09 - ID#26669)
Bart, you have a great site, but there is too much defamation going on.

Sure, many of the posters don't stick to topic all the time; I doubt they would in any community. But there is no call to post bizarre and evil comments like this. Thanks.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:11 - ID#398105)
6pak - British run International terrorism - details please.

Mr. Mick
(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:11 - ID#345321)
SDRer_A - Banks of 1930 aren't here..........
because they chose to try to re-inflate the economy, like the knuckleheads in New York are trying to do now. The parellels between 1930 and now are uncanny. Too many to list here, but The Great Reckoning goes into exhaustive detail on them.
Instead of trying to shore up bad debt, they should let it go under, and save what good credit is left.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:13 - ID#254269)
@ Donald; Did you calculate ratios today ?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:16 - ID#254269)
@ Mr. Mick; Your 18.11 ; Is The Great Reckoning a book ? Author ? TIA

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:18 - ID#31868)
Mr. Mick
Great book that one.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:20 - ID#26793)
No. I am looking for spot! Here spot, here spot!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:21 - ID#288157)
Mr. Mick, I agree...
Mayer's point is the asset base was "there" in the 30's to a real
degree; today, that can not be said. Bank's asset bases are astonishingly
probematic: credit card payments; long-term ( 5+ yr ) currency options;
derivatives of all kinds... it's a right-fair mess!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:22 - ID#254269)
Looking out my office window in Dallas, Tx and what do I see ?

A most gorgeous GOLDEN sunset; it's really pretty !

Mr. Mick
(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:24 - ID#345321)
Avalon - The Great Reckoning is a book, by James Davidson and
Lord Rees-Mogg. Lord Rees-Mogg is in the British house of lords, is an elderly gentleman and has great experience and information.
Where Davidson and Rees-Mogg learned all this stuff, I can only guess. They evidently are historians of economics, politics, etc. IMHO, taking the long view of this whole thing is the only view. Short term thinking will land you in the poor house.
I got the book at Barnes and Noble for about $24.

Gusto Oro
(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:27 - ID#377235)
LGB & silver
LGB, why don't you just drop the idea that silver as an investment is your creation and that goldbugs here should bow down to your genius. I bet most of us loaded up on silver and silver stock well before the push over 5.50. And as for your Dow--watch it have a cow. Show me a new high. It's stalled for almost 5 months now.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:28 - ID#26793)
@Haggis, All Update on Korean rollover

Mr. Mick
(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:29 - ID#345321)
SDRer_A - I agree, Banks in the 30s were more solvent than they are now.
What a mess, indeed!!!!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:36 - ID#269409)
@ Realistic, Spudmaster....if you got it
Realistic, keep them COMEX inventory closing figures a comin! Love that drawdown today, considering it was supposed to be an ultra light trading day.

Spud, what, if you got it you can't flaunt it? So this guy walks into a bar, see's this little piano player, tiny dude, playing away perfectly. Says to the bartender, "That's the damndest thing I've ever seen, the guy is only a foot tall and plays perfectly, where'd he come from?"

The bartender says, "See that brass bottle down there?" "Yea", "Go rub it". So the guy rubs the bottle, a genie pops out, and grants him ONE wish. So he says "I want a MILLION BUCKS!"

Immediately the bar is filled with quacking got it, it's filled to overflowing with ducks. The bartender looks at the guy and says,

"You really think I would have asked the Genie for a 12 inch Pianist?"

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:40 - ID#269409)
@ Gusto Oro
Oh, "YOu bet most of us loaded up on Silver" eh Gusto? Yeah, that's why we see Gold promoted here at about a 20 to 1 ratio. My idea to buy Silver? Never said so. I'm not an analyst. I just READ a lot of analysts.

It wasn't me who saw it coming, it was others, Sheller and Puetz not included since I agreed with the REAL analysts long before those 2 gentlemen jumped on the bandwagon after the fact.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:44 - ID#93232)
@T#1 and @Donald_A(M).........................
I came to own gold because of instinct....the only real monetary gains I've enjoyed in life have resulted from buying a downtrodden commodity, holding for a period of time ( usually years ) and then selling part of my holdings. This time its gold.

I read every morning, the future prices of oil, cattle, grains, nat. gas, metals, etc. and have done so for twenty-five years. Have bought, drilled and sold oil and gas wells, grain and elevators, own cattle and built several feedyards, and I bought my silver seven years ago...still have it ( it has tarnished a bit ) .

It is now time for me to own gold...and I have wanted to for many years. I have been strangely attracted to it since I first touched it and read "The Gold Bug". Two events caused my urgency to own:

1. Low Historical Price
2. International Currency and Financial Uncertainties

I think it is prudent to have 10% of one's assets in gold holdings now. Simply because there is at least a 10% chance that a worldwide recession, of the severe variety, will occur within the next five years.
I really didn't think this way until the Asian problems erupted and spread so quickly. If the conditions worsen...I will increase holdings to 20% or more.

This strategy is based on the confidence I have in my instincts...nothing more. It has worked for me every time and I feel much better now that I have followed through and protected my family, to some degree, from a possible, maybe not probable at this time, failure of paper currency. I am thankful that this "prudent" insurance was made affordable by the Central Banks and forward-selling mines.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:48 - ID#398105)
Lyndon LaRouche..................


I have listened to some Wackoooooooossssss in my time!

I reckon that Lyndon LaRouche should stand for President; when elected he would have his finger "on the button" - nuke those god dam limeys, flatten London, god dam it why stop there, flatten the world.

I think when he "made the beard, he missed out the flour"!

You sure do breed them in the good old USA?!

Being a humble Scot, I can only provide some advice. Dear Lyndon ( glad we are on first name terms ) , if you're feeling relaxed, tighten up every part of your body slowly. NOW HOLD!!!

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:50 - ID#352177)
In this article that appears in the latest issue of the Forbes magazine, John Brimelow supports the case for a bounce in gold. Being that I am not a good typist I scanned it and copied it for the group. Hope it works.



THE YEAR 1997 was ghastly for gold bugs: Large central bank sales, rumors of larger sales and even of German and Swiss intentions to .mobilize'-that is, to sell or lend out their
John Brimelow
is director of
international equitiesgold reserves-have sent the gold price reel-
ing down 25% this year.
At a recent $281.40, gold is at a 17-year low. Damage to gold share prices far exceeds that done by the bear market of 1992. The Bre-X fiasco, along with other scandals, demoralized investors and combined with tax-loss selling of unprecedented savagery to devastate gold stocks.
for Donald & Co.,But even dead cats bounce-sometimes
a New York
brokerage firm.quite a lot. A significant gold price rally is probable early in 1998. Gold shares are so beaten down that any such price move could cause a multiplication in many equity values. Gold market professionals agree that over-
shadowing the various species of short-sellers, mine-hedgers and lesser central bank dispos-
als, there has been a truly immense seller. This seller has brutally crushed several promising rallies, nullifying usually dependable technical indicators and enormously encouraging major short-sellers, who are now confident that they can easily cover their positions. The culprit is widely suspected to be the Dutch central bank, perhaps with accomplices.
What's the Dutch game? A good guess is that the Netherlands Central Bank fears that the European Central Bank coming onstage in 1998 volt ban the conversion of gold into income-producing assets. The Dutch suppos-
edly want to beat the deadline, expected to be very early in the year.
At any rate, European bank-related selling in 1997 might well have approached 1,000 tons. Outside theECBzone, only the U.S. and Switzerland have thisMLIch gold in reserve-
and for constitutional reasons the Swiss cannot sell before 2000, if then. To duplicate the 1997 debacle, an implausibly long line of lesser central banks would have to sell most of their reserves in 1998.
Research by my friend and client Frank Veneroso, of Portsmouth, N.H.-based Ven-
eroso Associates, underlines the improbability Of Such Continued selling pressure. Veneroso


believes that central bank lending of gold already exceeds 8,000 tons-25% of all central bank holdings. He thinks virtually all of this gold has been absorbed into jewelry and is therefore not now available to repay these loans. Central Bank mobilization has gone much further, faster, than widely realized As understanding of this spreads, Central Bank behavior is likely to become more measured.
Fearing diminished selling, professional gold bears are alleging that Asian demand for gold is collapsing because of the currency crisis. Actually, the main Asian buyers, China and India, are not affected. China has not devalued and is reflating, A slight Indian devaluation more than offset by the recent abofidon of gold import barriers. And Japan's banking crisis has triggered strong gold-buying by the public-which I think is likely in the aggregate to offset Southeast Asian weakness.

Once tax-loss se@ is behind us, a siffnifi-cant gold price rAy is probable early next year.

Recent data, in fact, indicate physical gold demand in the East and even in America is surging. Quite predictable since gold is at a 25-year low in real terms.
There are some massive hedge fund shorts out there. They will no doubt defend their gains before year-end. But the logic of the sit-
uation is that they-and gold mines not want-
ing to see their hedging profits disappear-
must buy back aggressively as the cessation of exceptional selling lets the gold price fift. A return to a modest $350 level would produce dramatic share-price gains.
I especially like South Africa's Durban Deep ( Nasdaq, Ditooy ) and Randgotd ( Nasdaq @GY ) ; North America's explorer Golden Star ( Amex, GsR ) , junior producerstvx ( Amex,Tvx ) and Royal Oak ( Amex, ilyo ) , and large-cap Homestake ( NysE, Hm ) .
Tax-loss selling in gold and gold shares VAI be considerable this year, but by the time YOU read this, that selling will be nearly over. A good bounce looks extremely likely.

Forbes 0 January 12, 1998

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:51 - ID#26793)
London tells us that the NY bank meeting today was at the Chairman level

(Mon Dec 29 1997 18:55 - ID#26793)
Leadership shuffle in China

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:00 - ID#31868)
I know this feeling you speak of. I have accumulated a bunch of gold, silver and platinum coins. E-gold is a solid way to go as well IMHO. From my vantage point I am getting so scared of these problems from a global perspective that I may just go ballistic and get 80% physical soon. I am not worried about forty or fifty bucks in any direction.

When this thing blows it will be a destroyer of many lives, businesses, etc. IMHO opinion when this bad boy dies the physical purchases will skyrocket and people will simply erase existing supplies. I would rather have metal than paper. And I don't want to have to chase it.

Aside from the many fine pieces we all read and mention here I think one of the best analogies of late was the Skeptical Investor discussing the Titanic. Weird how the movie is now playing. ( big shiver ) Yikes!

The Nah it won't happen crowd will go as quick as the ship.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:00 - ID#398105)
Lyndon LaRouche and Studio.R............


Are you, by any chance, one and the same?

Do you have several aliases, or several jobs. Better still, combine both cunning plans.

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:02 - ID#401460)
Its all right to have a Rolles Royce ego, as long as you dont have a bicycle brain.
Jesse Jackson

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:04 - ID#341234)
Kitco chart
The gold market is so bad, Kitco is not even updating their 24 hour chart any more.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:05 - ID#26793)
Korean default rate tripled in November (wonder what December will be)

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:06 - ID#427357)

Fred: FYI

Major Gold Trading Centers Around the World. Many Gold price links, including closing bullion and gold coin prices. Also shows live GOLD TRADING in London, Singapore, Tokyo & the COMEX:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:06 - ID#269409)
@ High Rise.... from small brained creatures
Then no one here has anything to worry about!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:07 - ID#398105)


The Poms ( English ) sure do have a strange way of looking at things. When the say "of no concern", that really means that SH.. is hitting the fan, real time, one time!!

I suppose the only saving grace is that it is extremely unlikely that the Central Banks will off load or "loan" substantial amounts of gold in the short term.

It is going to be a very interesting New Year.

Aye Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:10 - ID#398105)

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

In case you had not noticed, ALL markets are, or are going, to be "bad". I take it you are selling off all your GOLD.

Have a nice day.

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:12 - ID#26793)
Korea say so sorry honorable banker san, rollover not enough, need more please

Gusto Oro
(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:13 - ID#377235)
Silver & Gold
LGB, that drop in silver supplies today surprises me. May be time to pick up a call.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:13 - ID#401349)
The Jerk is Back
Obviously enjoys self-stimulation.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:14 - ID#269409)
@ NJ
Thanks for that post. It's the best case for Gold I've seen. Certainly a refreshing change to see an honest analysis when building a case for Gold today, rather then the usual doublespeak.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:19 - ID#269409)
@ Gusto Oro
I'm with ya there, I was surprised to see a drawdown like that today. VERRRY bullish IMHO ( oops! ) , and if I REALLY had huevos, I'd get some call options...however, guess I shoulda thought of that back in July eh? meanwhile, my physical is way way up so I won't bitch and moan.....

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:19 - ID#93130)
Ashanti and Sutton Resources
HAGGIS: Ashanti and Sutton Resources are being recommended by a number of analysts. From the information I can gather, ASL looks like it is reducing costs, expanding production, has a well-managed hedge program, a decent dividend and is well-positioned to take advantage of central African exploration plays. Sutton appears to have an excellent mine under development in Tanzania. But I know nothing of "local" information. Since I understand you were involved thereabouts, do you have any comments on the companies derived from personal knowledge.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:20 - ID#398105)


I would not refer to Donald_A as a jerk!!!!

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:21 - ID#402251)
Happy New Year Kitco And Posters!!

Gold's rebound with authority,

Although,not for the majority.

Will surprize like a grizzly,

Not just AnOtHeR fizzly.

Like the ( D ) OW that breaks in the wind,

So shall the papergods that dwell within.

When all's said and done,

And no story left unspun.

Buy the DOW,by the market,is the cry to the crowd,

From the tops of tall buildings,it could be heard,oh so loud.

While those who were shouting,were selling their wares,

Jim Bob and Sue,were in with no fears.

Happy New Year,my bonus, will that guarantee,

Ninety-Seven's been a blast,to that,we all agree.

But Ninety-Eight will be different,and we now must address,

As the paper keeps coming,and we're lost,we confess.

Lower YOUR expectations,say the gods to the minions,

As they clamor for direction,and fear true opinions.

From GoldBugs,and Realists,and those who predict their fate,

As gold's global value,will appreciate,in Ninety-Eight.

To where,and when,is speculation from the seers,

DOW 6000,Gold 360,Happy New Year,have some beers!!


(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:21 - ID#26793)
Silver bids overwhelm traders; Japan prints 11.5% more banknotes & more PM news

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:22 - ID#344308)


and all scots are saints! right.....larouche is a fringe element
as is lgbito.......00....

you're a big thinker ( hiccup ) -------back-up and re-trench......the
majority of people ( us ) are conservative with high morals and a passion
for god, family, and country. radicals like larouche are to be found
on every continent and island, some are more powerful than others.

your power is obvious and respected..........don't lose, by failing
to continue to choose, the planting of the seeds of knowledge.....


(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:22 - ID#341234)
To: Vronsky & Haggis_A
Vronsky, thanks for the Gold Eagle site. Still, its not the same as Kitco's cool 3 day graph.

Haggis_A, I may be crazy, but I am keeping my gold.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:22 - ID#269409)
@ Hipshot....self stimulation......mastering bation
Older dictionary defines it as self abuse, besides, don't knock it, it's sex with someone I love

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:24 - ID#344308)


time to clip this critter too!!!!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:24 - ID#26793)
Look for smoke signals.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:27 - ID#432169)
LGB - Fortune in Stocks

LGB - unless you have taken your booty off of the table, you have not made a thing ... many a winner has been humbled in very short order by a quick, unexpected change in fortune. If you are as wealthy as you are smug, then you are indeed very rich. But if that were truly the case, I suspect you would find much better things to do, than continue the pontificating, berating and gloating you seem to enjoy doing so much here.

Despite the _many posts you have "contributed" to this thread, precious few have offered anything of real value; in fact most have just taken up valuable bandwidth .... most nothing more than biting, sarcastic criticism of other people's contributions.

As far as the market goes, unless you haven't noticed, it has been wallowing like a harpooned whale for the last several months - hardly anything to be rejoicing about - and certainly nothing that supports your bullish posture. Fact is, the tide is indeed turning - the bear ( IMVHO ) is very likely upon us.

BTW - they said the Titanic was unsinkable too ... had "mans" attitude not been so arrogant to believe that, I suspect she may still be afloat in some marine museum dock today .... as one gurus said recently "if there is anything to be learned from history - it is that "man" never learns anything from history.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:28 - ID#269409)
@ Bart/Cherokee
You're the newly appointed site censorship NAZI are ya Cher? Tell you what, I tried and tried and yet I still can't recall electing you to the position.

Diver City.... that's the kind of views that we need here, and the kind we will have, whether YOU like it or not! I have longevity my friend, so better get used to it.

Besides, I've contributed as much as yer average bear here, "doublethink" Orwellian views like YOURS notwithstanding.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:30 - ID#401460)
Right - I am not a real fan of Jackson; however, my sons and I were sitting in front of the computer ( Kitco ) with the TV on, when they had this quick clip of Jackson saying that, I can't remember in what context he said it - we all cracked up.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:32 - ID#344308)


caught'em in the hubbly-bubbly.......thanks, oh ethernitic one.

Mr. Mick
(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:33 - ID#345321)
All - Gold lease rates going up? That's a hint!!! Thanks, Donald.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:33 - ID#26793)
Bond analysis: companies may be hard pressed to make interest payments.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:33 - ID#269409)
@ Goldhound
My chips have been cashed in Hound. I cashed em back in the balmy summertime. about 450% gains total since I started puttin the money in. I've ooutlined before where all these gains have now been placed, so I won't be redundant. A lot of it is in SIlver currently I'll tell ya that.

As to being an insufferable, gloating, blowhard boor....I already said earlier that I have a list already being written of New Years resolutions! And besides, as a problem solving type engineer, I can only take so much nonsense before piping up and pointing out a few realities, INCLUDING Those of personal experience. ( As opposed to the hypotheticals we read here constantly )

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:36 - ID#398105)


I do not have a working knowledge of Tanzania, but I did live and work in Zambia for three years.

The most active Australian company in Tanzania is Resolute who are builting a 2Mt per annum plant at the Golden Pride gold project in northern central Tanzania, a 50:50 JV with Samax Resources Ltd. The overall length of the Golden Pride deposit extends over three kilometres and remains open along strike and at depth. Reserve, not resources, stand at 700,000 ounces.

The Tanzania gold fields are located in the Archaean Tanzanian Craton. No significant gold mining has taken place since the British left in the early 1960's. Areas of historical prooduction are: Migari, Buhemba, Kiabakari, Gelta, Sekenke, Lupa, and Mpanda. An outline of the geology and mineralisation can be sourced via "Regional Geology of Africa" by S W Petters, Springer Verlag, ISBN 3 540 54528 X.

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:39 - ID#333131)
Frustrated and Selby - Morning posts on CCH
If you are still lurking, apparently 10 million shs went off first thing this AM in 3 blocks. My broker tells me at least one block was 3.6% of shares outstanding, which I take to be about 5.5 million. No other info. Have you found any?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:39 - ID#376309)
Re: aurator ( devilling ) - I made the post on Jul 30th at 20.17. There were several miss spellings in it, but it had good information.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:39 - ID#26793)
Rumors of Fed guarantees for Korean rollover hurting Treasuries

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:47 - ID#398105)


Scots are not saints, and as I have stated before they have a history of being Mercenaries. This goes way.... back, including the Middle East Wars of Richard I during 11th the centuary and the establishment of the Masonic Order. Another example is the establishment of the Special Air Service SAS in Scotland during World War II, same principals.

Another example, well working as a Geologist in Africa and Australia for twenty two years!

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:49 - ID#93130)
HAGGIS: Sutton has a strike on the Bulyanhulu property and Ashanti is reworking an old mine site at Geita.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:50 - ID#287207)
Carl: Trades don't appear to have been made in Montreal or
Toronto. I believe it trades somewhere in the US--maybe that is where the big volume traded

(Mon Dec 29 1997 19:51 - ID#28594)
THE LAW OF THE LAST STRAW--a cautionary tale for those who live in paper houses
FT: Dec 27-28, 1997

Chaos theory tells us that catastrophic events can have very small and remote causes. Because of its appealing name, it has crept out of the science lab into popular parlance as a chilling metaphor for our complicated times.

Why are our times so complicated? Because we live in the Age of Compression. Ours is the first period in human history when the majority of the earths inhabitants are living packed into cities. Our distances have been compressed by technical advances--the telephone, satellite, video camera and personal computer. Our time has been squeezed, every second made urgent by the speed of travel and communication. Our diaries are full and life is techno-hectic.

But the systems we live by are very sensitive. So when little things go wrong, they can have disastrous results. To understand all this, we must set our mathematicians to work on a variant of the chaos theory: let us call it The Law of the Last Straw.

Two weeks ago, half of southern England was paralysed by a small fire in a Burger King restaurant at Londons Heathrow. Not only was the worlds busiest air terminus put virtually out of action, but enormous traffic jams built up on the roads outside and tens of thousands of passengers were marooned.

The Law of the Last Straw states that the faster market-driven technology succeeds in maximising the usage of a system, the faster that system reaches the point of breakdown.

Computers have promised the utopia of a perfect market in which trading is instant, open, continuous and global. But what if the machine blows up? As long ago as 1985, a computer glitch brought the Bank of New York to its knees. One day in November that year, the bank found itself with a $32bn overdraft because the computer was unable to process transactions in government securities. Even with a temporary patch-up the bank was forced to pledge all its domestic assets and many of its customers securities in order to get a $23.5bn short-term loan from NY Federal Reserve.

Something has to give. The problem is knowing what and when. Consider the camel: for he too, is a student of chaos theory. The driver who loads him knows he can take only so much. What the driver cannot know is which will be the final straw--until, of course, it is too late.
Christian Tyler, FT

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:00 - ID#333131)
CCH trades on the NYSE

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:01 - ID#301188)
@Haggis- Studio R. and La Rouche
--too much exposure to that hot Kalgoolie/desert sun can cause delirium. Try staying in the shade sometime, ol' buddy!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:06 - ID#398105)
Cherokee..........and how does the world view the USA


It depends on what part of the planet you are standing.

With respect to this Forum, it must be the US dollar, the dollar, the dollar................goes on and on, just like the FED printing presses.

Darkness is very soothing until you hit your shins on the furniture, or stand on unidentifiable squishy things. Is this how the US views the current crisis in Japan and Asia, or is it only a "glitch".

The US forms part of this planet, not it all. Then again, the US may well be "off this planet"!!

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:06 - ID#344308)



i've been the self-appointed mouth-monitor here for over a year..
not nazi....cherakazii...much worse!!! who outed hep? how?
vulnerabilities nice.....chaos and flux always
have their bags packed........

time for the muzzle bart....e-mails to the webmaster will do nicely....

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:06 - ID#93232)
Aye, Zee, I believe I owe ya' one. G'Day from central Oklahoma.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:08 - ID#398105)
See you later, have a nice day.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:26 - ID#342273)
@ Haggis
There is a story of one Scot advising another about how to arrange the careers of sons - the punch line is "if you have one that's not so bright, you send him to London and noone will notice." If you recall, I'd love to have my memory refreshed and would be much obliged.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:31 - ID#344308)
@----history------and ------------reality-----


exactly! i agree. most gold-bugs also agree that the dollar
should not be what it has become.

if it ( and all other curriencies ) were backed by gold, value
would be relative to actualities, instead of perceptions and

it's incredible! look at the contributions and sacrifices the
us made in wwII. look at the countries given back their identities,
and cultures, and FUTURES!!!!

how can so much, be forgotten, so soon???

the perception of the politicians and their policies ( shameful )
is justified. they should be impeached and prosecuted for
bribery, influence peddling, land deals, etc.. on and on forever.

it is also shameful to suggest all/most americans as having these
or larousche-like tendancies; or make judgements on 220 million
people by the actions of a few.

!; !; !; !;

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:32 - ID#217338)
JT8D are you out there.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:32 - ID#224151)
Good Piece 19:51. On a slightly different tack: Isnt it amazing how quickly problems are solved these days. A week ago S.Korea was
a basket,tnx to the good offices of the IMF the sun is shining again.....Just like
that! The magic ( Illusions? ) of the 90s. Re todays action in New York: Low volume I
think tells the real story. Small, maybe, but one of the many increasing signs that its
Bear time. With the help of todays highly refined propaganda tools our masters are
doing a masterful job of obfuscating these signs..... or are they now becoming too
numerous? It has been noted that the market goes up about two thirds of the time the
reason being that the average investor inherently abhors the downside. Was todays rally
in this mode? And now to Gold: Let us not forget that for all its shining attributes Gold
is also associated with Avarice..aggression and the disciples of Gloom & Doom.
Ironically,for these reasons, it will not be viewed positively as long as we enjoy these
apparent Good Times.IMHO.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:36 - ID#267276)
According to the Financial Research Center. "The New York Times always made the reality clear for its nationwide readers, by running each Friday ath the back of its Business and Finance section a table that spelled out percentage growth numbers for M1, M2,and M3 over periods of three, six and 12 months. Three weeks ago this table showed an M3 annualized growth rate of 10.1% for the previous 3 months.
Then suddenly the table disappeared from the Times. " It goes on to say that for 3 weeks the figures were left out and when put back in were not in the table of contents and were hard to find. Then they say "Last week, M3 jumped $13.5 Billion to a total of 5320.5 Billion. That added to even larger gains during each of the two preceding weeks, brought the three-week total of new Money in America to $50.1 Billion." They go on to say "The annualized M3 growth rate for the past 3 weeks has been 16% a shocking number seen only rarely since the explosive demands of WW2."

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:41 - ID#78116)
M3 to the Rescue
Greenspan's doing for the world financial community today what he did for Wall Street back in 1987, when we had a real crash. He is providing liquidity and buckets of it. Its just the right thing to be doing in a liquidity crisis.

One of the reasons the garden variety recession of 1929 turned into the Great Depression was the Fed's tight monetary policy. That's clearly one of the reasons why there won't be a financial meltdown now.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:45 - ID#30116)
NYSE Volume
Pedro -- I'd be careful in using the NYSE volume for anything this week. I to, was somewhat skeptical of this rally on 'light' volume. I went back and checked some previous Christmas Season/New years data. Today is actually a little 'high' in the volume department. The first full week of trading in January is more indicative of the trend. Trading taken for the month of January is a much better statistical indicator yet. Keep in mind, nothing is perfect. These are just high probability indicatores.

The confab in New York underscores the seriousness of the Asian flu, and not the chicken variety either...

Remember the old adage; If you are a small borrower and you default, the lender owns you. Be smart. Borrow most of what the lender has, then YOU will OWN the lender...

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:45 - ID#427357)
Robert Burns Thanks-ya
Crunch: "if you have one that's not so bright, you send him to London and
none will notice." QUITE RIGHT! QUITE RIGHT!

Robert sends:

"We twa hae run about the braes
...And pu'd the gowans fine;
But we've wandered mony a weary foot
...Sin auld lang syne.
We twa hae paidl'd in the burn,
...Frae morning sun till dine;
But seas between us braid hae roar'd
...Sin auld lang syne.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:46 - ID#78116)
M3, inflation and gold
With M3 growth going through the roof, gold, if it is still viewed as a hedge against inflation should be headed higher. If there is no gold rally to correspond to the rise in M3 then gold is in deep trouble.

NJ's post about Dutch cb selling was interesting because it points out to the demonetarization of gold in Europe. Demonetarization of gold and the shift to a dollar/information standard would mean a substantially lower price for gold despite the rising m3 numbers and the clear threat of higher inflation.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:46 - ID#93232)
@cherokee...master of the acronym.....
I do not give up...but I grow weary of the jig-saw missing a piece....
otssmfatimm...... ( verb ) the smoke signals ( verb ) flaming arrows ( ? ) in my mind..... ( far away look ) .

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:48 - ID#30116)
Karlito99__A -- "Something wicked this way comes." To assume all is, as has been, is a grave mistake...

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:48 - ID#26793)
From Elliott Wave BB: Bonds & Gold
December 29, 1997
I've read EWP and At the Crest, yet, in the case of bonds, I don't understand your contention that
government bonds should lose value during the initial stages of deflation. In spite of the fiscal
problems here in the US we still remain the "safe haven" of the world. I know you discount the
predictive value of "fundamentals" but here's what I think they're telling us: as the economy
continues to slow and stocks get crushed, investors will shift money to bonds. The Fed will soon
ease policy ( buy bonds w/ open market operations ) . Simple supply and demand tells us that such a
move will drive bond yields down. In this environment ( next 6 months ) , the best investment for cap
gains will be 30 year zeros. The yield curve will probably become inverted briefly. As the stock
market continues to get crushed ( as you predict ) large US brokerages and banks will have financial
trouble, calling into question our "safe haven" status and so at the first sign of real trouble, investors
should shift their
money down the yield curve as it will become incredibly steep giving investors at the shorter ( safer )
end good gains. Eventually, trouble will get so bad that the solvency of the US will be called into
question. At this point, gold will finally be king, after -like you predict - the price hits lower levels. I
agree, yields on the long end will skyrocket eventually, but for traders, why shouldn't yields
continue to fall in the near term? Thanks for your great work. PPIII
Reply from Bob Prechter
December 29, 1997
I don't remember when I first started with your newsletter, but it must have been in 83 or 84. After 87
and the rocket ride out of the bottom I became upset with the calls and got off the ride. I re-entered
in the 90's. I read some comments about your being so wrong on the great bull ride of the 90's. No
one could have forcast this extention.... No one..! My point: When normality returns, alot of money
will be made on the downside ride... Don't let the "Your always wrong" crowd get to you. Thanks for
a great service....expensive....but, good things usually are. --John Norton
Reply from Bob Prechter
December 29, 1997
Dear Bob, Thanks for the bulletin board - I am a dedicated reader. Here's a question regarding the
Euro and its impact on gold. If the European central banks are willing to sell gold on the belief that
future business will be denominated in Euro's, and if the Euro ultimately gets cancelled, will gold
again become the common denominater? If that is the case, wouldn't that make a case for strong
gold prices? Thanks, --Lon Bentkower
Reply from Bob Prechter

Great write-up. I have no quarrel with any of it. Bonds THAT ARE CONSIDERED SAFE will go up in a
deflation. Those perceived at risk will go down. That might mean a long delay before US bonds fall. There
is, however, another factor. Deflation forces a need for cash, and people sell assets to raise it. Japan is a
huge holder of US bonds. One problem for the US government bonds is that they have printed and sold a
veritable ocean of them. This was not the case in 1929. --RP

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:53 - ID#30116)
Monetary lag
All control systems have a time lag, just give it time......

The Hatt
(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:55 - ID#294232)
Our Day is Coming Soon!
It amazes me how one down day in the price of gold and all of a sudden
the move is a result of a suckers rally. Yet the Dow bounces plus one
hundred points and that elusive 10000 mark is just around the corner.
The thing I have to keep reminding myself of is that these doomsayers
are heavily weighted in equities and there is no greater fear than a
sharp rise in gold prices. We are definitely in turbulant and risky
times and the markets can and will turn on a dime so please donot blink
as you may risk missing the event of the minute which could very well be
something as simple as Asia passing gas!
What they fail to realize is that goldbugs are not market timers nor are
they country bashers. At best we are realists who call the game what it
is rather than what it appears to be which at present is confusing to
say the least. Has it dawned on anyone that civil unrest is a given once
these proud people of Korea begin to live the pain! What would civil
violence bring to the table and what would that do to foreign investor
confidence? We are printing dollars to rescue Government and Corporate
losses that have yet to be determined by the IMF. What if their need for
capital is triple current estimates, would the IMF kiss goodbye the
paltry sum of 58,000,000.00? Time will tell but until then there is far
to much gas in the balloon for me to feel comfortable in the equity markets!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:58 - ID#286230)
CCH traded a total of 5500 on Montreal and Toronto so the big trades must have been on the NYSE.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 20:59 - ID#26793)
I believe that the reference to Dutch CB sales goes back to 1995 or early 1996.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:00 - ID#427357)
MONEY SUPPLY SOARS - Broadest Measure of Money Supply M3 EXPLODES

PER THE NEW YORK TIMES - December 29, 1997:

"The annualized M3 growth rate for the past 3 weeks has been 16% -- a shocking number seen only rarely since the explosive demands of World War II."

The Hong Kong Oracle, Milhouse, has always maintained there is a positive correlation between the trends of money supply ( M3 ) and the price of gold. In light of M3s accelerating growth rate in recent months - the highest increase in over a decade, and nearly DOUBLE the Feds upper range guideline - it is well worth a re-study of Milhouses analysis, US MONEY SUPPLY AND THE DEMAND FOR GOLD:

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:01 - ID#30116)
Do you remember?
Does anyone here remember the run on a couple of Japanese banks about a year or so ago? What did the government of Japan do? Why what else! ( Sarcastically said ) They piled stacks of Yen two feet high on the counters in the failing banks for all of the depositors to see.

Now what are we treated to? Video clips of pallet loads of one hundred dollar bills being sent somewhere. This is normal?

Heightened security measures at airports in the wake of TWA's flight 800 crash, even though this is due, ostensibly, to mechanical failure?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:05 - ID#344308)

what word preceded ---otssmfatimm?

cherokee!; ) driver-of-the-smoke-signal-mobile-for-all-time-imm

the last 3 will remain as the smoke-signals themselves


david goldfever@pac.bell's fault!!; )

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:05 - ID#22650)
Unlike his predecessors Clinton probably would not "unleash weapons of mass destructions" on others. He would likely let others do it to us ( US ) and then tell us how good it was for us. If this is how you think Canadians think, then I take back all of the attributes I bestowed upon you all.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:08 - ID#364147)
Skeptical Investor.................................for the last time!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:10 - ID#344308)


you dropped those C$??

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:15 - ID#344308)


something wicked this way comes-------

an excellent reference to an excellent movie! what a
powerful emotive generator with a powerful message.......

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:17 - ID#26669)
Is everybody paranoid enough? the sixth essay down deals with US property confiscation.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:22 - ID#401460)
South Korea

Composite ^KS11 Dec 27 376.31 +1.16 +0.31%
On a big + run after all of the good news today.
Wait till the news turns - again.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:24 - ID#298259)
Carl - CCH
No news on CCH volume, but I find it kind of interesting Fidelity Select American Gold Fund held 1,320,000 shares on Aug 31,1995...and 847,000 in Feb 29, 1996...and none in Aug 31, 1997. Could they be buying some? Even that wouldn't account for such a large volume traded today.

The Midas Fund only shows ownership of 1,100,000 as of June 1997.

I'd like to know who was selling and who was buying.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:28 - ID#364147)
CherOkee.........and C$
Dropped all them C$ except for the money due me when the house-sale closes ( hopefully in a month ) .....Today was another bad one for 'it'....

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:29 - ID#401460)
Gold $291.70
Feb. Gold 2917 -8 -0.3 2923 2913 6.03K

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:31 - ID#364147)
Our island has a nor-Easter comin this way and wind gusts are supposed ta hit 100 kilometers tomorrow----today was sunny and chilly ( -4 C ) but great weather to build the new deck!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:32 - ID#401349)
Haggis, Donald is a man of honor with an exceptional personal foundation. Definitely not the one I was referring to.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:34 - ID#234182)
Skylark re:19:50 post
Do you know if the positive news on Sutton is a result of their underground bulk sample or from the drilling programme? The locals ( govt. etc ) seem to have a high regard for the company ( or did prior to James Sinclair's removal from STT's Board ) currently they have filed an environmental assesment and are awaiting approvals. The company also has huge nickel reserves in TNZ that are being drilled-up under a JV with Anglo. The company is run by Mike Kenyon but the brains appear to be Roman Shirlanka ex PDG and very familiar with the way business is done in TNZ. I would be interested in any further info. you may have. Also T1"s pick Tan Range property is contigious or near by. ......regards

Lurker 777
(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:35 - ID#317247)
Ramblings of a Goldbug
Gentelmen I am not a investment guru, college graduate or a big risk taker. I am a 42 yr. old entrepreneur and currently own 5 business and have franchised 3 more. I am willing to put my humble reputation as a businessman and my money to the test.

I believe gold will retest the $280. level within a couple of weeks and this should be the last chance to buy below $300. in our lifetime. CBs are not in the business to lose money on their assets. The selling and lending will decrease! The mines are starting to slowdown or close and as most Kitco observers know, it wont take much to drive the public back into gold investments.

As most already know, I have bought 100 Philhomonic coins for $299.30 ea. and a June 270 put option ( $630. ) for insurance. The most I can lose is 12% and have until June of 1999 to sell my gold for over $305.60 to reap a profit. I will be buying another 100 oz. and a put option soon.

I also own June 99 $340 and $370 calls and will be purchasing June 99 $310 calls to average in at $340. Also, today the Dec. 98 340 calls were selling for $380 ea. and are starting to look pretty tempting. If gold were to close above $400.00 anytime before the second week of November 1998 each of the calls would be worth $6,000.00 minus $380. price and $30 commission for a $5,590.00 profit.

My investments:
March 98 30 bond put @ 118
Feb 98 280 gold put
Money Market 5.25%

IMVHO: I might not get the bottom but I am close. Gold could have a explosive surge up any day just like silver has. I have limited my downside risk to 12% on the coins and play the options with gambling money. I am a novice at gold investing ( as if you couldn't tell ) but believe the rewards far outweigh the risks. Everyone has a opinion and now you have mine. Life doesn't get much better than this. Enjoy!

Gusto Oro
(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:43 - ID#377235)
Clinton & Weapons of Mass Destruction
James ( 21:05 ) , you don't have it quite right. Clinton would let others do it to us and then tell us how he FEELS OUR PAIN. : )

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:50 - ID#364147)
Cape Breton weather................similar to Miami

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:52 - ID#398105)


I concur with your comments concerning Donald. We agree on something.

"Hipshot", must mean something.

Have you actually ever "hit" anything, or is the name just for posture.

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:54 - ID#432169)
Silver ... a good choice. I've been accumulating and a few good silver stocks, and a few gold ones highly leveraged to silver for about 6 months now.

BTW There is a decent thread on SI on Silver.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:55 - ID#352177)
Karlito: Demonetization of gold is the latest spin put out by professional gold bears. It has no merit. What they do not tell is that when silver was demonetized, it was replaced by gold. At this time there is nothing else available, except for paper currencies, to replace gold. Without the unifying influence of gold currency crises are going to keep hitting the world scene with the unpredictability and force of ever bigger tornadoes. Mexico, Russia, Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea. Who is next? And who is going to pick up the tab ?

Please read Donald A's 17:35 post before you respond.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:57 - ID#335190)
Haggis_A @ 18:11
Date: Mon Dec 29 1997 18:11
Haggis__A ( 6pak - British run International terrorism - details please. ) ID#398105:

I have no details, regarding British as supporters of Terrorism ( ie:1997 )
I expect, British corporate interests, have had such interests.
I was referencing statements made by Lyndon Larouche. Take Care

(Mon Dec 29 1997 21:58 - ID#31868)
That's why I rent. Not funnin ya. Hope nothing happens. Good luck.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:01 - ID#398105)
Vronsky................I am impressed


Aye laddie you are coming on! However, one must always remember the chorus.............

The Traditional Scots Song for New Year

Auld Lang Syne

By Robert Burns 1756 to 1796

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,

And never brought to mind?

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,

And days of auld lang syne!


For auld lang syne, my dear,

For auld lang syne,

We'll tak a cup o' kindness yet,

For auld lang syne.

And surely ye'll be your pint stowp,

And surely I'll be mine!

And we'll tak a cup o' kindness yet,

For auld lang syne.

( Chorus )

We twa hae run about the braes;

And pou'd the gowans fine;

But we've wander'd mony a weary fit

Sin' auld lang syne.

( Chorus )

We twa hae paidl'd in the burn,

Frae morning sun till

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:03 - ID#288310)
Avalon re 18:16
I'd recommend getting "The Sovereign Individual" instead.

It's less dated than "The Great Reckoning".

Watch out for those Luddites!!!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:03 - ID#398105)
Vronsky................I am impressed


Aye laddie you are coming on! However, one must always remember the chorus.............

The Traditional Scots Song for New Year. Auld Lang Syne, By Robert Burns 1756 to 1796.

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And never brought to mind?
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And days of auld lang syne!
For auld lang syne, my dear,
For auld lang syne,
We'll tak a cup o' kindness yet,
For auld lang syne.
And surely ye'll be your pint stowp,
And surely I'll be mine!
And we'll tak a cup o' kindness yet,
For auld lang syne.
( Chorus )
We twa hae run about the braes;
And pou'd the gowans fine;
But we've wander'd mony a weary fit
Sin' auld lang syne.
( Chorus )
We twa hae paidl'd in the burn,
Frae morning sun till dine;
But seas between us braid hae roar'd
Sin' auld lang syne.
( Chorus )
And there's a hand, my trusty fere!
And gie's a hand o' thine!
And we'll tak a right gude-willie waught,
For auld lang syne.
( Chorus )

A wee bit early but.......Prosperous New Year to One and All.
Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:16 - ID#398105)

For a minute you had me worried! I thought that all Scots were "Saints".

I must confess the the Brits do things rather discreetly and quietly. You may wish to give the following a read:

1. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers - Economic change and military conflict from 1500 to 2000: by Professor Paul Kennedy. Fortuna Press.

2, Big Boys' Rules - The SAS and the secret struggle against the IRA; by Mark Urban. Faber and Faber. ISBN 0 571 16809 4.

3. Phoenix, Policing the Shadows - the secret war against terrorism in Northern Ireland: by Jack Holland and Susan Phoenix. Coronet Books. ISBN 0 340 66635 8.

Happy reading.

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:17 - ID#364147)
No problemO~~~~~~I like storms!!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:18 - ID#410387)
Anyone have any other addresses for what spot gold is doing in Asia right now. It seems Kitco is down for some reason.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:20 - ID#344308)
this numismatics co was given recently posted here.

got their inventory sheet with prices.

impressive inventory......excellent prices on mexican silver

placed order today for un-circulated mexican libertad odds & ends
1oz to 1/20oz .999 ----100oz ---$599.00 no charge for shipping
anyone know of better prices???

baja numismatics 505-299-0402-------

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:20 - ID#335190)
Yellowknife Gold Mine @ Downsizing
December 29, 1997
Gold mine announces layoffs

YELLOWKNIFE ( CP ) - The weak price of gold has prompted the Mirimar Mining Corp. gold mine in Yellowknife to cut 130 jobs. Ninety-two members of the United Steelworkers of America were told of the layoffs Sunday night, about one-third of the workforce at the mine.

Twenty-eight non-union staff positions will also be eliminated. The Vancouver-based company also blames high operating costs for the downsizing.

"In response to continued low gold prices and high operating costs, Miramar Mining will reduce production from the Con Mine in Yellowknife to 800 tons per day from the current 1,200 tons per day," said a company release.

The layoffs had been rumored for weeks after the price of gold fell below $300 dollars ( US ) an ounce. Union employees are taking the layoffs hard.

"I don't understand it," said union local 802 president Cliff Moroz."It's
pretty drastic news coming between Christmas and New Year's."

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:21 - ID#26669)
NJ, Karlito, All, re demonitization (IMHO):
I asked my office wizard about this a couple of weeks ago. He replied that he thought that there would evolve a world market standard based on a basket of commodities such as rice, wheat, oil, metals, WATER ( emphasis mine ) and possibly things such as microchips, optical cable and bandwidth aboard communications satellites,fissionables and pollution rights. So in his mind at least, we're going back to the barter system one way or t'other.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:24 - ID#398105)


Concerning British corporate interests, you might find it of interest to:

1. Read up on "Tiny" Roland, ex-Chairman of Lonhro, and the history of Lonhro in Africa.

2. Read up on Rio Tinto, Bougainville in Papua New Guinea, and Sandline ( Rio Tintos' "private" army ) .......... situation still evolving.

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:28 - ID#256201)
@Tolerant 1 re: Your post of 22:37-28 Dec.
Please email me so I can trade info with you. I feel what I have to say should not be on a public forum at this time. Thanks

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:33 - ID#344308)

just looked at the value of those june 112 bond puts
that were bought based on some of your information.

all 3 with broker fee cost less than $400. they are now
worth $375 each.

just another example of what options can do. in less than 2
weeks a strong profit is already built-in.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:37 - ID#286199)
Will Baja buy those coins back? and at what price? Sounds like you got a great deal.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:38 - ID#335190)
TED @ SYSCO (Welfare & Socialism for whom EH!)
December 29, 1997

There is general optimism about the sale of the troubled Sydney Steel Corp. to a Mexican firm. Some key dates in the plant's history

SYDNEY, N.S. ( CP ) - There is general optimism about the sale of the troubled Sydney Steel Corp. to a Mexican firm. Some key dates in the plant's history:
*1901: First steel poured at Sydney, N.S., mill, known as the Dominion Iron and Steel Co.
*1928: Control passes to delegation of bankers who form Dominion Steel and Coal Corp. Known as Dosco, it governs mill for next three decades.
*1957: Dosco purchased by Canadian subsidiary of British corporate conglomerate, Hawker Siddeley.
*1961: Employment peaks at 4,000.
*Oct. 13, 1967: Known as Black Friday, Hawker Siddeley announces closure of mill because it's no longer profitable.
*1968: New provincial Crown corporation, Sydney Steel Corp., known as Sysco, takes possession of mill. It receives about $2 billion in government subsidies over next 25 years.
*1990: Mill modernized at cost of $250 million. Workforce shrinks to 700.
*1992: Nova Scotia government says it won't pump any more money into Sysco, which loses $279 million in 1992-93. Suggests mill will close if buyer not found.
*1994: Province agrees to sell mill to China Minmetals in 1997 after three years of joint operation. Min loses interest over next couple of years and province eventually scratches $30 million plus it was owed.
*Dec. 23, 1997: Nova Scotia government signs memorandum of understanding for sale of Sysco to Grupo Acerero Del Norte of Mexico. Company promises $1 million US down payment and $25 million US to be paid in instalments over 10 years.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:40 - ID#376309)
miss print
Re: Date: Mon Dec 29 1997 22:20 6pak ( Yellowknife Gold Mine @ Downsizing )

A reduction from 1200 tons per day to 800 tons per day???
Are you serious? Tons per day??

No hard feelings. My posts are loaded with mis spellings

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:45 - ID#398105)


I apologise if it was inferred that the "few" represented the interests of the "many".

However, correct me if I am wrong. Clinton and associates were elected, not once, but twice by the American voters. He won well in both cases? It is my understanding that less than 50% of voting Americans actually voted in the two elections - is this correct?

If this is so, why the song and dance concerning the "few" not representing the interests of the "many". Surely those who wish to participate in the democratic process voted.

Did you?

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:48 - ID#364147)
6Pak......and Sysco
Sysco is a joke my friend.....No legitimate company would become involved in this 'labor climate'----Gan will go the way of Min metals~~~~~

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:51 - ID#335190)
Glenn @ 22:40
I suggest they are referencing processed material.
Here is the news site. Take Care

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:54 - ID#398105)
Crunch and Vronsky...................


I cannot confess never having been to London, so you may have a point! It was never discussed with my Father, only my Professors.

However, I most certainly have NEVER been to the United States.....

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:54 - ID#93130)
WERT: Thanks for the response which I find helpful. I have no answer to your posed questions. As to additional comments, from your response I see you are already very familiar with the company, and therefore I will not detail elementary fundamentals which must be known to you. What you may not know is that Bunting Warburg, in a favorable October report, calculated Sutton's NAV, using a 5% discount, at C$13.82/share, second only to NEM at 15.79. With an update on their drilling program expected in early 98 - completion of a feasibility study in April, which is expected to confirm a draft study of 300,000 ounces of gold annually at a cash cost of about $150 US per ounce - and mine development soon thereafter, there should be a steady supply of positive news to drive the stock. I assume you are aware from a recent release that the government of Tanzania recently implemented a new fiscal policy specifically to encourage more mining investment in the country. This policy set the corporate income tax rate at 30% and confirmed the importation of mining equipment and supplies duty free. Depreciation is accelerated and a capital allowance has been added. As a result of these kinds of initiatives, Tanzania reportedlly has become a destination of choice for mineral investment in Africa. Sutton appears more than fairly valued at its current price, assuming there are no Tanzania surprises, and, along with Ashanti, for different reasons, is a favorite among favorites, IMHO.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:55 - ID#426220)

Emerald Heights
(Mon Dec 29 1997 22:58 - ID#227311)
LGB.... I think what irritats the goldbugs so much is the fact
that you have made so much in the equities markets and now you will do
the same in PM's. while they have been holding the bag of gold that has lost so much. With your gains in the Dow you can buy a lot of PM's and if
they are correct you again will make a bundle. Knowing when to buy and
when to sell is the key. EM & as far as NEWA is concerned , "more nerve than brains" is not much of a "class debate" and I am getting so tired of hearing about this LORD REES-MOGG,HOUSE OF LOADS ETC, ETC, its an OK book....enoth he is not GOD and his "just wait till our party in 2000" is getting a little old !!!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:00 - ID#256201)
@ James, re: post of 15:3512'29/1997
This is not to be argumentative. Rather it is to possibly aid you in a re-assessment of WJBC. ( Ol' Prez of u.s. )
He has already permitted if not actually ordered, the use of "weapons of MASS destruction" against humanity.
He had or should have had, full knowledge of the events transpiring in Mt. Carmel, Texas.
Waco to the uninitiated.
Regardless, it was done on his watch and he elected to do nada. President of MY country, not MY president. Not by a long shot!
I can proudly state I have been able to vote against him ever since 1981 and have done so, here in Arkansas and while I was in Nevada.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:03 - ID#288155)
FT Tuesday Front Page...and so it begins?
Nuclear power: Russia in $3bn reactor deal with China
By James Harding in Shanghai

Russia yesterday signed a $3bn ( 1.8bn ) agreement to provide nuclear
generating equipment for a power plant in China, a landmark deal which will help lift the meagre volume of Sino-Russian trade.

Li Peng, China's prime minister, and Boris Nemtsov, Russia's first deputy
prime minister, attended the signing in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing,drawing to a close a year of increasingly warm relations and strengthening economic ties.

The contract requires Russia to design and build two 1,000MW reactors for a nuclear power plant in Lianyungang in Jiangsu province on China's eastern seaboard. Construction is due to start in June 1999 and the reactors are expected to become fully operational in 2004 and 2005, according to a report by the official Xinhua news agency.

Last month, Russian President Boris Yeltsin visited China, greeting President Jiang Zemin, with a trademark bear-hug that underscored the improved relations in recent years between Moscow and Beijing.

However, the low level of Sino-Russian trade remains a cause of concern to both sides and yesterday's deal, which has been under negotiation for a number of years, will help lift the figures. Trade between China and Russia reached $6.84bn last year compared with China's trade with Japan of $60bn.

When Mr Yeltsin visited Beijing, he brought a delegation of 50 business
people in the hope of fostering deeper commercial ties. At that time, China and Russia also signed a $12bn gas pipeline deal to transport liquefied natural gas from Siberia to China's Pacific coast.

Officials at the Russian embassy had hoped the nuclear equipment deal might also have been finalised in time for Mr Yeltsin's visit, but it took longer to reach a final agreement on price.

The Lianyungang nuclear power plant will add to China's fledgling nuclear
power industry, which includes two functioning nuclear facilities - one in Guangdong province in southern China, and another in Zhejiang province in eastern China.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:05 - ID#301188)
Don't presume that "the democratic process" is equated with the interests of "the many".
In the States, it represents the interests of the powerful few, i.e. lobby groups, big business etc.
The "many" are disenfranchised, disillusioned, dispirited, disaffected- hence their reluctance to vote,.
-And for what? They have no choice, they have no voice.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:07 - ID#26669)
Haggis A note about American politics
About one in every three persons in America gets payment of some sort from the government. Roughly one in ten receives their total income from that source. Mr. Clinton was elected by less than 1/3 of the registered voters and by less than half of the total who turned out to vote. There is a peculiarity of American politics, known as 'the electoral college' which provides that the president is not directly elected by the people. Instead he is elected by a group which is biased toward the wishes of the large urban states like California and New York where reside the largest number of Democrats and the best organization for dragging them into the polls. IMHO

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:10 - ID#224149)
Money@For@The @Breast@Of@Land
Ted-I Smell trouble in the wind of Decks.Get those nails down!Such a pretty place for Real-estate Scoundrels. Away to catch the thieves of time.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:14 - ID#364147)
Poorboys.......and WIND
She's startin ta blow mate.....

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:19 - ID#224151)
@ Panda
Re volume again: I know what you're saying but my sense is this: with the holidays falling as they do this year and the strong smell of Bear on Wall street its the little guys at play while the big Guys are away.Now what's your take on today's gold share volumes?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:20 - ID#398105)
ZEE and 223..........


Thanks for your orientation. Not a simple issue. How do you get it sorted out?

I passed some comment a week or so ago that it appears, to an outsider, the your financial system is totally controlled by "external interests" via the FED and, with respect, it appears that your political system is like wise controlled by the same "external influences" - Rothchilds.

In Australia everyone of voting age, by law, has to vote. There are some checks and balances in the system to "keep the bast...s honest. It is by no means perfect, but at least the voting turn out is 95 to 100%, or else you are fined for not voting.

The system here is by no means perfect, as we still have severe external influences via London, but at least we give it a "fair go".

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:23 - ID#288155)
Bits and pieces
Tokyo up on early trade
Tokyo stocks jumped in early trade on Tuesday as market sentiment was
helped by a strong rally in Wall Street stocks overnight, brokers said. After seven minutes of trade, the key 225-share Nikkei average was up 190.61 points or 1.29 percent to trade at 14,965.83. Nikkei March futures were bid-only at 15,000 against Monday's close of 14,760.

Tyson Foods pleads guilty on illegal gifts
Tyson Foods, the US's largest poultry processor, pleaded guilty on Monday
to giving former U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy over $12,000 in illegal gifts and agreed to pay $6m in fines and investigative expenses. Following the plea entered in US District Court here by company Chairman Don Tyson,Judge Ricardo Urbina set a Jan. 14 sentencing date to determine whether to accept the plea bargain reached by Tyson and Independent Counsel Donald Smaltz or to modify it, an aide to Smaltz said. Under the plea bargain, Tyson Foods would pay $4m in criminal fines and $2m to cover the cost of the investigation, which began in 1994. The Springdale, Arkansas-based company would also have to implement a number of measures aimed at raising its ethical standards.***

***Well shoot, it's not much I admit, but some days you gotta take
what you can git!

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:23 - ID#335190)
Ted & Haggis_A
Haggis_A: Thanks for the reply, & Book Information. Take Care

Ted: Thanks for the reply. Take Care

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:26 - ID#286199)
Japan and Korea are way up tonight, basking in the glow of roll over loans. No crash is in sight this year. : )

I have a few questions about COT - Committments of Traders. Have the silver commercials ever been long silver? When? I followed a thread on SI and ran across a lengthy post which indicated that silver commercials have never been long silver. Here is a short piece of the post:

From: Emory Alexander
"Commercial traders provided key buy signals with unusually
large purchases of both gold and silver contracts at the major
bottom last March. Commercials held a net long position in
gold ( +30,584 contracts ) but were net short in silver ( -27,657
contracts ) . Yet both were bullish indications. How can this be?
Each futures market is made up of an unique mixture of
traders. In silver, large hedgers are primarily producers who
hedge against price declines by selling forward in the futures
market. As a result, commercials have never been net long in
silver. In gold, however, the commercial mix is more heavily
weighted with fabricators who buy long contracts as a hedge
against future inventory needs and rising prices. In aggregate,
commercials are as often net long as net short in gold.
Therefore a simple net position is meaningless; it is
imperative to compare the current net position with recent
historical levels in the respective market."

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:29 - ID#398105)


The "thing" about roller coasters is that they are "fun" on the way up, but dependent upon the gradient, they can be "hell" on the way down.

Aye, Haggis

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:29 - ID#364147)
@ The End
G'nite 6Pak and all Kitcoites!!!!-----6Pak: Devco is more of a 'joke' than even Sysco~~~~~~~~~

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:31 - ID#287207)
6pak: does the sale mean that I won't have to pay for anymore million dollar railway track? Or does it mean that I will be paying for Mexican railway track?

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:35 - ID#344308)


yes i voted. there is incredible apathy amongst the
'free' in america.

a poll taken in houston, texas after the last presidential election
showed the areas ( 5th ward, heights, etc.. ) with the highest turn-out
voted 95%+ democratic across the board. these areas just happen to be
the slum areas and they are not about to give-up that nice warm
subsidized housing, or their food stamps, or their 'bubba' on the
hill ( democrats ) who always have, and always will take care of them.

the area i live in voted 19% for clinton ( 37%turn-out ) . there is too much apathy; that translates into not caring enough to vote.
incredibly sickening to believe that due to apathy, special interest groups are able to galvanize more support for fringe candidates than
the main-stream
can generate for their aging candidates. a poll conducted here in the
LOOKS!!!!!!!!! aaaarrrrgggghhhhhhhhh-----double aaaarrrrgggghhhhhh--

damn.....we deserve derision.....

as donald wrote recently. ( kinda ) ..we need to have a reversal of course
here before it is too late. there is too much fat and gutter-tripe
to continue this path.....

disney and haggis.........there are 'some' who are awake and aware....
apparently the rest do not care........

hammer needs to be's a big boat, and we're ( us ) in it..

need to get outside to see inside......thanks haggis...


let's see....a 50' friend the wind.....and the ssm!; )


(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:39 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:42 - ID#344308)


those are not opinions, they are facts!! the DEMOCRATS had an
incredible network set-up here in houston that CALLED, PICKED-UP,
they also passed around stories that the republicans were going
to eliminate medicare and medicaid. that RUMOR alone cost
thousands of votes. posturing and positioning with no substance....
dad-burned smelly critters.........

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:45 - ID#335190)
Selby & Ted
Selby @ 23:31 We are the people. We pay for Canadian Railtracks & Mexican railtracks. On the track and off the track, all tracks and any tracks.
Such is the lot of the prople. It is written in rock. Take Care.

Ted: G'nite. .....DEVCO ?????

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:50 - ID#335190)

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:53 - ID#238422)
Myself - pretty much the same story as yours,
but was born in Moscow approx. 10 years later
and took off approx. 10 years later in comparison
with you. Reasons were also the same.

Nice to meet you, Miro.

(Mon Dec 29 1997 23:53 - ID#287207)
6pak: eh?